WorldWideScience

Sample records for california niche modeling

  1. Spatial analysis of plague in California: niche modeling predictions of the current distribution and potential response to climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tucker James R

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Plague, caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis, is a public and wildlife health concern in California and the western United States. This study explores the spatial characteristics of positive plague samples in California and tests Maxent, a machine-learning method that can be used to develop niche-based models from presence-only data, for mapping the potential distribution of plague foci. Maxent models were constructed using geocoded seroprevalence data from surveillance of California ground squirrels (Spermophilus beecheyi as case points and Worldclim bioclimatic data as predictor variables, and compared and validated using area under the receiver operating curve (AUC statistics. Additionally, model results were compared to locations of positive and negative coyote (Canis latrans samples, in order to determine the correlation between Maxent model predictions and areas of plague risk as determined via wild carnivore surveillance. Results Models of plague activity in California ground squirrels, based on recent climate conditions, accurately identified case locations (AUC of 0.913 to 0.948 and were significantly correlated with coyote samples. The final models were used to identify potential plague risk areas based on an ensemble of six future climate scenarios. These models suggest that by 2050, climate conditions may reduce plague risk in the southern parts of California and increase risk along the northern coast and Sierras. Conclusion Because different modeling approaches can yield substantially different results, care should be taken when interpreting future model predictions. Nonetheless, niche modeling can be a useful tool for exploring and mapping the potential response of plague activity to climate change. The final models in this study were used to identify potential plague risk areas based on an ensemble of six future climate scenarios, which can help public managers decide where to allocate surveillance resources

  2. Niche modelling of salt marsh plant species

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This study sought to extend the niche model of Spartina anglica to other salt marsh species, and to include tidal submergence in the models. The method used and preliminary data analysis are described. Tidal level and submergence niche models are examined, and niche width, niche overlap and species interaction are considered. Tidal level models and submergence niche models are compared for the 5 most common species. (UK)

  3. EUBrazilOpenBio - Niche modelling services

    OpenAIRE

    Rebello, Vinod; De Giovanni, Renato; Candela, Leonardo

    2012-01-01

    This report concerns Ecological Niche Modelling - also known as environmental niche modelling - as used in the EUBrazilOpenBio Project to provide, through the aggregation of various computational and data technologies, a coherent and integrated research environment to be used by scientists and external applications, particularly from the area of biodiversity.

  4. Niche models tell half the story

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Swab, Rebecca Marie; Regan, Helen M.; Keith, David A.;

    2012-01-01

    Aim  While niche models are typically used to assess the vulnerability of species to climate change, they have been criticized for their limited assessment of threats other than climate change. We attempt to evaluate this limitation by combining niche models with life-history models to investigate...... processes might interact. Location  Australian sclerophyll woodland and heathland. Methods  The study species is Leucopogon setiger, an obligate seeding fire-prone shrub. A spatially explicit stochastic matrix model was constructed for this species and linked with a dynamic niche model and fire risk...... providing a greater understanding of the impacts of global change than would be gained by niche models alone. Further investigations of this type could elucidate how particular bioecological factors can affect certain types of species under global change....

  5. Ditch the niche - is the niche a useful concept in ecology or species distribution modelling?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    McInerny, Greg J.; Etienne, Rampal S.

    2012-01-01

    In this first of three papers we examine the use of niche concepts in ecology and especially in species distribution modelling (SDM). This paper deliberately focuses on the lack of clarity found in the term niche. Because its meanings are so diverse, the term niche tends to create confusion and requ

  6. Niche

    OpenAIRE

    O'Donovan, Danielle

    2001-01-01

    Capital of middle niche/sedilia of south nave wall, moulding from top down comprises: chamfer, fillet, hollow, stiff-leaf foliage, bell, necking roll-and-fillet. Here again Early English characteristics are manifest but the niche may date from the later middle ages.

  7. Niche

    OpenAIRE

    O'Donovan, Danielle

    2001-01-01

    Arch and hood moulding of westernmost niche of south nave wall. Arch moulding from inner surface comprises: chamfer, flat surface, hollow, roll-and-fillet, roll, hollow, chamfer, flat surface of wall. The hood, from outside face to inner comprises: roll-and-fillet, hollow, chamfer. The style of this moulding can best be described as debased Early English. The roll-and-fillet is particularly deformed.

  8. Evaluating correlative and mechanistic niche models for assessing the risk of pest establishment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ecological niche modeling was used to assess the risk of establishment of western cherry fruit fly, Rhagoletis indifferens Curran (Diptera: Tephritidae), in sweet cherry, Prunus avium (L.) L., in the commercial cherry-growing areas of California. We integrated species occurrence records and spatial...

  9. The Probabilistic Niche Model Reveals the Niche Structure and Role of Body Size in a Complex Food Web

    OpenAIRE

    Richard J Williams; Ananthi Anandanadesan; Drew Purves

    2010-01-01

    The niche model has been widely used to model the structure of complex food webs, and yet the ecological meaning of the single niche dimension has not been explored. In the niche model, each species has three traits, niche position, diet position and feeding range. Here, a new probabilistic niche model, which allows the maximum likelihood set of trait values to be estimated for each species, is applied to the food web of the Benguela fishery. We also developed the allometric niche model, in w...

  10. The probabilistic niche model reveals the niche structure and role of body size in a complex food web.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richard J Williams

    Full Text Available The niche model has been widely used to model the structure of complex food webs, and yet the ecological meaning of the single niche dimension has not been explored. In the niche model, each species has three traits, niche position, diet position and feeding range. Here, a new probabilistic niche model, which allows the maximum likelihood set of trait values to be estimated for each species, is applied to the food web of the Benguela fishery. We also developed the allometric niche model, in which body size is used as the niche dimension. About 80% of the links in the empirical data are predicted by the probabilistic niche model, a significant improvement over recent models. As in the niche model, species are uniformly distributed on the niche axis. Feeding ranges are exponentially distributed, but diet positions are not uniformly distributed below the predator. Species traits are strongly correlated with body size, but the allometric niche model performs significantly worse than the probabilistic niche model. The best-fit parameter set provides a significantly better model of the structure of the Benguela food web than was previously available. The methodology allows the identification of a number of taxa that stand out as outliers either in the model's poor performance at predicting their predators or prey or in their parameter values. While important, body size alone does not explain the structure of the one-dimensional niche.

  11. Mechanistic and Correlative Models of Ecological Niches

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peterson A. Townsend

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The suite of factors that drives where and under what conditions a species occurs has become the focus of intense research interest. Three general categories of methods have emerged by which researchers address questions in this area: mechanistic models of species’ requirements in terms of environmental conditions that are based on first principles of biophysics and physiology, correlational models based on environmental associations derived from analyses of geographic occurrences of species, and process-based simulations that estimate occupied distributional areas and associated environments from assumptions about niche dimensions and dispersal abilities. We review strengths and weaknesses of these sets of approaches, and identify significant advantages and disadvantages of each. Rather than identifying one or the other as ‘better,’ we suggest that researchers take great care to use the method best-suited to each specific research question, and be conscious of the weaknesses of any method, such that inappropriate interpretations are avoided.

  12. GIS-based niche modeling for mapping species' habitats

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rotenberry, J.T.; Preston, K.L.; Knick, S.

    2006-01-01

    Ecological a??niche modelinga?? using presence-only locality data and large-scale environmental variables provides a powerful tool for identifying and mapping suitable habitat for species over large spatial extents. We describe a niche modeling approach that identifies a minimum (rather than an optimum) set of basic habitat requirements for a species, based on the assumption that constant environmental relationships in a species' distribution (i.e., variables that maintain a consistent value where the species occurs) are most likely to be associated with limiting factors. Environmental variables that take on a wide range of values where a species occurs are less informative because they do not limit a species' distribution, at least over the range of variation sampled. This approach is operationalized by partitioning Mahalanobis D2 (standardized difference between values of a set of environmental variables for any point and mean values for those same variables calculated from all points at which a species was detected) into independent components. The smallest of these components represents the linear combination of variables with minimum variance; increasingly larger components represent larger variances and are increasingly less limiting. We illustrate this approach using the California Gnatcatcher (Polioptila californica Brewster) and provide SAS code to implement it.

  13. INVASIVE SPECIES: PREDICTING GEOGRAPHIC DISTRIBUTIONS USING ECOLOGICAL NICHE MODELING

    Science.gov (United States)

    Present approaches to species invasions are reactive in nature. This scenario results in management that perpetually lags behind the most recent invasion and makes control much more difficult. In contrast, spatially explicit ecological niche modeling provides an effective solut...

  14. Advances and Limitations of Disease Biogeography Using Ecological Niche Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Escobar, Luis E.; Craft, Meggan E.

    2016-01-01

    Mapping disease transmission risk is crucial in public and animal health for evidence based decision-making. Ecology and epidemiology are highly related disciplines that may contribute to improvements in mapping disease, which can be used to answer health related questions. Ecological niche modeling is increasingly used for understanding the biogeography of diseases in plants, animals, and humans. However, epidemiological applications of niche modeling approaches for disease mapping can fail to generate robust study designs, producing incomplete or incorrect inferences. This manuscript is an overview of the history and conceptual bases behind ecological niche modeling, specifically as applied to epidemiology and public health; it does not pretend to be an exhaustive and detailed description of ecological niche modeling literature and methods. Instead, this review includes selected state-of-the-science approaches and tools, providing a short guide to designing studies incorporating information on the type and quality of the input data (i.e., occurrences and environmental variables), identification and justification of the extent of the study area, and encourages users to explore and test diverse algorithms for more informed conclusions. We provide a friendly introduction to the field of disease biogeography presenting an updated guide for researchers looking to use ecological niche modeling for disease mapping. We anticipate that ecological niche modeling will soon be a critical tool for epidemiologists aiming to map disease transmission risk, forecast disease distribution under climate change scenarios, and identify landscape factors triggering outbreaks. PMID:27547199

  15. Advances and Limitations of Disease Biogeography Using Ecological Niche Modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Escobar, Luis E; Craft, Meggan E

    2016-01-01

    Mapping disease transmission risk is crucial in public and animal health for evidence based decision-making. Ecology and epidemiology are highly related disciplines that may contribute to improvements in mapping disease, which can be used to answer health related questions. Ecological niche modeling is increasingly used for understanding the biogeography of diseases in plants, animals, and humans. However, epidemiological applications of niche modeling approaches for disease mapping can fail to generate robust study designs, producing incomplete or incorrect inferences. This manuscript is an overview of the history and conceptual bases behind ecological niche modeling, specifically as applied to epidemiology and public health; it does not pretend to be an exhaustive and detailed description of ecological niche modeling literature and methods. Instead, this review includes selected state-of-the-science approaches and tools, providing a short guide to designing studies incorporating information on the type and quality of the input data (i.e., occurrences and environmental variables), identification and justification of the extent of the study area, and encourages users to explore and test diverse algorithms for more informed conclusions. We provide a friendly introduction to the field of disease biogeography presenting an updated guide for researchers looking to use ecological niche modeling for disease mapping. We anticipate that ecological niche modeling will soon be a critical tool for epidemiologists aiming to map disease transmission risk, forecast disease distribution under climate change scenarios, and identify landscape factors triggering outbreaks. PMID:27547199

  16. Introducing BioSARN - an ecological niche model refinement tool.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heap, Marshall J

    2016-08-01

    Environmental niche modeling outputs a biological species' potential distribution. Further work is needed to arrive at a species' realized distribution. The Biological Species Approximate Realized Niche (BioSARN) application provides the ecological modeler with a toolset to refine Environmental niche models (ENMs). These tools include soil and land class filtering, niche area quantification and novelties like enhanced temporal corridor definition, and output to a high spatial resolution land class model. BioSARN is exemplified with a study on Fraser fir, a tree species with strong land class and edaphic correlations. Soil and land class filtering caused the potential distribution area to decline 17%. Enhanced temporal corridor definition permitted distinction of current, continuing, and future niches, and thus niche change and movement. Tile quantification analysis provided further corroboration of these trends. BioSARN does not substitute other established ENM methods. Rather, it allows the experimenter to work with their preferred ENM, refining it using their knowledge and experience. Output from lower spatial resolution ENMs to a high spatial resolution land class model is a pseudo high-resolution result. Still, it maybe the best that can be achieved until wide range high spatial resolution environmental data and accurate high precision species occurrence data become generally available. PMID:27547356

  17. Ecologic Niche Modeling of Blastomyces dermatitidis in Wisconsin

    OpenAIRE

    Reed, Kurt D.; Meece, Jennifer K.; Archer, John R.; Peterson, A. Townsend

    2008-01-01

    Background Blastomycosis is a potentially fatal mycosis that is acquired by inhaling infectious spores of Blastomyces dermatitidis present in the environment. The ecology of this pathogen is poorly understood, in part because it has been extremely difficult to identify the niche(s) it occupies based on culture isolation of the organism from environmental samples. Methodology/Principal Findings We investigated the ecology of blastomycosis by performing maximum entropy modeling of exposure site...

  18. A Mechanistic Niche Model for Measuring Species' Distributional Responses to Seasonal Temperature Gradients

    OpenAIRE

    Monahan, William B.

    2009-01-01

    Niche theory is central to understanding how species respond geographically to climate change. It defines a species' realized niche in a biological community, its fundamental niche as determined by physiology, and its potential niche--the fundamental niche in a given environment or geographic space. However, most predictions of the effects of climate change on species' distributions are limited to correlative models of the realized niche, which assume that species are in distributional equili...

  19. Do Ecological Niche Models Accurately Identify Climatic Determinants of Species Ranges?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Searcy, Christopher A; Shaffer, H Bradley

    2016-04-01

    Defining species' niches is central to understanding their distributions and is thus fundamental to basic ecology and climate change projections. Ecological niche models (ENMs) are a key component of making accurate projections and include descriptions of the niche in terms of both response curves and rankings of variable importance. In this study, we evaluate Maxent's ranking of environmental variables based on their importance in delimiting species' range boundaries by asking whether these same variables also govern annual recruitment based on long-term demographic studies. We found that Maxent-based assessments of variable importance in setting range boundaries in the California tiger salamander (Ambystoma californiense; CTS) correlate very well with how important those variables are in governing ongoing recruitment of CTS at the population level. This strong correlation suggests that Maxent's ranking of variable importance captures biologically realistic assessments of factors governing population persistence. However, this result holds only when Maxent models are built using best-practice procedures and variables are ranked based on permutation importance. Our study highlights the need for building high-quality niche models and provides encouraging evidence that when such models are built, they can reflect important aspects of a species' ecology. PMID:27028071

  20. Ecological niche modelling of bank voles in Western Europe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amirpour Haredasht, Sara; Barrios, Miguel; Farifteh, Jamshid; Maes, Piet; Clement, Jan; Verstraeten, Willem W; Tersago, Katrien; Van Ranst, Marc; Coppin, Pol; Berckmans, Daniel; Aerts, Jean-Marie

    2013-02-01

    The bank vole (Myodes glareolus) is the natural host of Puumala virus (PUUV) in vast areas of Europe. PUUV is one of the hantaviruses which are transmitted to humans by infected rodents. PUUV causes a general mild form of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) called nephropathia epidemica (NE). Vector-borne and zoonotic diseases generally display clear spatial patterns due to different space-dependent factors. Land cover influences disease transmission by controlling both the spatial distribution of vectors or hosts, as well as by facilitating the human contact with them. In this study the use of ecological niche modelling (ENM) for predicting the geographical distribution of bank vole population on the basis of spatial climate information is tested. The Genetic Algorithm for Rule-set Prediction (GARP) is used to model the ecological niche of bank voles in Western Europe. The meteorological data, land cover types and geo-referenced points representing the locations of the bank voles (latitude/longitude) in the study area are used as the primary model input value. The predictive accuracy of the bank vole ecologic niche model was significant (training accuracy of 86%). The output of the GARP models based on the 50% subsets of points used for testing the model showed an accuracy of 75%. Compared with random models, the probability of such high predictivity was low (χ(2) tests, p models were predictive and the used ecologic niche model indeed indicates the ecologic requirements of bank voles. This approach successfully identified the areas of infection risk across the study area. The result suggests that the niche modelling approach can be implemented in a next step towards the development of new tools for monitoring the bank vole's population. PMID:23358234

  1. Ecological Niche Modelling of Bank Voles in Western Europe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sara Amirpour Haredasht

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The bank vole (Myodes glareolus is the natural host of Puumala virus (PUUV in vast areas of Europe. PUUV is one of the hantaviruses which are transmitted to humans by infected rodents. PUUV causes a general mild form of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS called nephropathia epidemica (NE. Vector-borne and zoonotic diseases generally display clear spatial patterns due to different space-dependent factors. Land cover influences disease transmission by controlling both the spatial distribution of vectors or hosts, as well as by facilitating the human contact with them. In this study the use of ecological niche modelling (ENM for predicting the geographical distribution of bank vole population on the basis of spatial climate information is tested. The Genetic Algorithm for Rule-set Prediction (GARP is used to model the ecological niche of bank voles in Western Europe. The meteorological data, land cover types and geo-referenced points representing the locations of the bank voles (latitude/longitude in the study area are used as the primary model input value. The predictive accuracy of the bank vole ecologic niche model was significant (training accuracy of 86%. The output of the GARP models based on the 50% subsets of points used for testing the model showed an accuracy of 75%. Compared with random models, the probability of such high predictivity was low (χ2 tests, p < 10−6. As such, the GARP models were predictive and the used ecologic niche model indeed indicates the ecologic requirements of bank voles. This approach successfully identified the areas of infection risk across the study area. The result suggests that the niche modelling approach can be implemented in a next step towards the development of new tools for monitoring the bank vole’s population.

  2. A synthesis of transplant experiments and ecological niche models suggests that range limits are often niche limits.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee-Yaw, Julie A; Kharouba, Heather M; Bontrager, Megan; Mahony, Colin; Csergő, Anna Mária; Noreen, Annika M E; Li, Qin; Schuster, Richard; Angert, Amy L

    2016-06-01

    Global change has made it important to understand the factors that shape species' distributions. Central to this area of research is the question of whether species' range limits primarily reflect the distribution of suitable habitat (i.e. niche limits) or arise as a result of dispersal limitation. Over-the-edge transplant experiments and ecological niche models are commonly used to address this question, yet few studies have taken advantage of a combined approach for inferring the causes of range limits. Here, we synthesise results from existing transplant experiments with new information on the predicted suitability of sites based on niche models. We found that individual performance and habitat suitability independently decline beyond range limits across multiple species. Furthermore, inferences from transplant experiments and niche models were generally concordant within species, with 31 out of 40 cases fully supporting the hypothesis that range limits are niche limits. These results suggest that range limits are often niche limits and that the factors constraining species' ranges operate at scales detectable by both transplant experiments and niche models. In light of these findings, we outline an integrative framework for addressing the causes of range limits in individual species. PMID:27111656

  3. Regional Variation Exaggerates Ecological Divergence in Niche Models

    OpenAIRE

    Godsoe, William

    2010-01-01

    Traditionally, the goal of systematics has been to produce classifications that are both strongly supported and biologically meaningful. In recent years several authors have advocated complementing phylogenetic analyses with measures of another form of evolutionary change, ecological divergence. These analyses frequently rely on ecological niche models to determine if species have ...

  4. Modelling Size Structured Food Webs Using a Modified Niche Model with Two Predator Traits

    OpenAIRE

    Klecka, Jan

    2014-01-01

    The structure of food webs is frequently described using phenomenological stochastic models. A prominent example, the niche model, was found to produce artificial food webs resembling real food webs according to a range of summary statistics. However, the size structure of food webs generated by the niche model and real food webs has not yet been rigorously compared. To fill this void, I use a body mass based version of the niche model and compare prey-predator body mass allometry and predato...

  5. Introducing MERGANSER: A Flexible Framework for Ecological Niche Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klawonn, M.; Dow, E. M.

    2015-12-01

    Ecological Niche Modeling (ENM) is a collection of techniques to find a "fundamental niche", the range of environmental conditions suitable for a species' survival in the absence of inter-species interactions, given a set of environmental parameters. Traditional approaches to ENM face a number of obstacles including limited data accessibility, data management problems, computational costs, interface usability, and model validation. The MERGANSER system, which stands for Modeling Ecological Residency Given A Normalized Set of Environmental Records, addresses these issues through powerful data persistence and flexible data access, coupled with a clear presentation of results and fine-tuned control over model parameters. MERGANSER leverages data measuring 72 weather related phenomena, land cover, soil type, population, species occurrence, general species information, and elevation, totaling over 1.5 TB of data. To the best of the authors' knowledge, MERGANSER uses higher-resolution spatial data sets than previously published models. Since MERGANSER stores data in an instance of Apache SOLR, layers generated in support of niche models are accessible to users via simplified Apache Lucene queries. This is made even simpler via an HTTP front end that generates Lucene queries automatically. Specifically, a user need only enter the name of a place and a species to run a model. Using this approach to synthesizing model layers, the MERGANSER system has successfully reproduced previously published niche model results with a simplified user experience. Input layers for the model are generated dynamically using OpenStreetMap and SOLR's spatial search functionality. Models are then run using either user-specified or automatically determined parameters after normalizing them into a common grid. Finally, results are visualized in the web interface, which allows for quick validation. Model results and all surrounding metadata are also accessible to the user for further study.

  6. Consequences of spatial autocorrelation for niche-based models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Segurado, P.; Araújo, Miguel B.; Kunin, W. E.

    2006-01-01

    of significance based on randomizations were obtained. 3.  Spatial autocorrelation was shown to represent a serious problem for niche-based species' distribution models. Significance values were found to be inflated up to 90-fold. 4.  In general, GAM and CTA performed better than GLM, although all three methods...... autocorrelated variables, these need to be adjusted. The reliability and value of niche-based distribution models for management and other applied ecology purposes can be improved if certain techniques and procedures, such as the null model approach recommended in this study, are implemented during the model......1.  Spatial autocorrelation is an important source of bias in most spatial analyses. We explored the bias introduced by spatial autocorrelation on the explanatory and predictive power of species' distribution models, and make recommendations for dealing with the problem. 2.  Analyses were based...

  7. Place prioritization for biodiversity content using species ecological niche modeling

    OpenAIRE

    Víctor Sánchez-Cordero; Verónica Cirelli; Mariana Munguial; Sahotra Sarkar

    2005-01-01

    Place prioritization for biodiversity representation is essential for conservation planning, particularly in megadiverse countries where high deforestation threatens biodiversity. Given the collecting biases and uneven sampling of biological inventories, there is a need to develop robust models of species’ distributions. By modeling species’ ecological niches using point occurrence data and digitized environmental feature maps, we can predict potential and extant distributions of species in u...

  8. The inverse niche model for food webs with parasites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Warren, Christopher P.; Pascual, Mercedes; Lafferty, Kevin D.; Kuris, Armand M.

    2010-01-01

    Although parasites represent an important component of ecosystems, few field and theoretical studies have addressed the structure of parasites in food webs. We evaluate the structure of parasitic links in an extensive salt marsh food web, with a new model distinguishing parasitic links from non-parasitic links among free-living species. The proposed model is an extension of the niche model for food web structure, motivated by the potential role of size (and related metabolic rates) in structuring food webs. The proposed extension captures several properties observed in the data, including patterns of clustering and nestedness, better than does a random model. By relaxing specific assumptions, we demonstrate that two essential elements of the proposed model are the similarity of a parasite's hosts and the increasing degree of parasite specialization, along a one-dimensional niche axis. Thus, inverting one of the basic rules of the original model, the one determining consumers' generality appears critical. Our results support the role of size as one of the organizing principles underlying niche space and food web topology. They also strengthen the evidence for the non-random structure of parasitic links in food webs and open the door to addressing questions concerning the consequences and origins of this structure.

  9. Range bagging: a new method for ecological niche modelling from presence-only data

    OpenAIRE

    Drake, John M

    2015-01-01

    The ecological niche is the set of environments in which a population of a species can persist without introduction of individuals from other locations. A good mathematical or computational representation of the niche is a prerequisite to addressing many questions in ecology, biogeography, evolutionary biology and conservation. A particularly challenging question for ecological niche modelling is the problem of presence-only modelling. That is, can an ecological niche be identified from recor...

  10. Modelling the regenerative niche: a major challenge in biomaterials research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirkpatrick, C James

    2015-12-01

    By definition, biomaterials are developed for clinical application. In the field of regenerative medicine their principal function is to play a significant, and, if possible, an instructive role in tissue healing. In the last analysis the latter involves targeting the 'regenerative niche'. The present paper will address the problem of simulating this niche in the laboratory and adopts a life science approach involving the harnessing of heterotypic cellular communication to achieve this, that is, the ability of cells of different types to mutually influence cellular functions. Thus, co-culture systems using human cells are the methodological focus and will concern four exemplary fields of regeneration, namely, bone, soft tissue, lower respiratory tract and airway regeneration. The working hypothesis underlying this approach is that in vitro models of higher complexity will be more clinically relevant than simple monolayer cultures of transformed cell lines in testing innovative strategies with biomaterials for regeneration. PMID:26816650

  11. Improving ecological niche model transferability to predict the potential distribution of invasive exotic species

    OpenAIRE

    Gengping Zhu; Qiang Liu; Yubao Gao

    2014-01-01

    Ecological niche modeling (ENM) seeks to characterize the ecological requirements of species using their occurrence in association with environmental variables. The classic applications of ENM to biological invasions involve the calibration of niche modeling in the native range and the subsequent transfer of the calibrated models to other regions to predict areas of potential invasion. However, low niche model transferability has been reported in certain cases, resulting in artifactual conclu...

  12. Modelling the meteorological forest fire niche in heterogeneous pyrologic conditions.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonella De Angelis

    Full Text Available Fire regimes are strongly related to weather conditions that directly and indirectly influence fire ignition and propagation. Identifying the most important meteorological fire drivers is thus fundamental for daily fire risk forecasting. In this context, several fire weather indices have been developed focussing mainly on fire-related local weather conditions and fuel characteristics. The specificity of the conditions for which fire danger indices are developed makes its direct transfer and applicability problematic in different areas or with other fuel types. In this paper we used the low-to-intermediate fire-prone region of Canton Ticino as a case study to develop a new daily fire danger index by implementing a niche modelling approach (Maxent. In order to identify the most suitable weather conditions for fires, different combinations of input variables were tested (meteorological variables, existing fire danger indices or a combination of both. Our findings demonstrate that such combinations of input variables increase the predictive power of the resulting index and surprisingly even using meteorological variables only allows similar or better performances than using the complex Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI. Furthermore, the niche modelling approach based on Maxent resulted in slightly improved model performance and in a reduced number of selected variables with respect to the classical logistic approach. Factors influencing final model robustness were the number of fire events considered and the specificity of the meteorological conditions leading to fire ignition.

  13. Ecologic niche modeling of Blastomyces dermatitidis in Wisconsin.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kurt D Reed

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Blastomycosis is a potentially fatal mycosis that is acquired by inhaling infectious spores of Blastomyces dermatitidis present in the environment. The ecology of this pathogen is poorly understood, in part because it has been extremely difficult to identify the niche(s it occupies based on culture isolation of the organism from environmental samples. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We investigated the ecology of blastomycosis by performing maximum entropy modeling of exposure sites from 156 cases of human and canine blastomycosis to provide a regional-scale perspective of the geographic and ecologic distribution of B. dermatitidis in Wisconsin. Based on analysis with climatic, topographic, surface reflectance and other environmental variables, we predicted that ecologic conditions favorable for maintaining the fungus in nature occur predominantly within northern counties and counties along the western shoreline of Lake Michigan. Areas of highest predicted occurrence were often in proximity to waterways, especially in northcentral Wisconsin, where incidence of infection is highest. Ecologic conditions suitable for B. dermatitidis are present in urban and rural environments, and may differ at the extremes of distribution of the species in the state. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our results provide a framework for a more informed search for specific environmental factors modulating B. dermatitidis occurrence and transmission and will be useful for improving public health awareness of relative exposure risks.

  14. Framework for analyzing ecological trait-based models in multidimensional niche spaces

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biancalani, Tommaso; DeVille, Lee; Goldenfeld, Nigel

    2015-05-01

    We develop a theoretical framework for analyzing ecological models with a multidimensional niche space. Our approach relies on the fact that ecological niches are described by sequences of symbols, which allows us to include multiple phenotypic traits. Ecological drivers, such as competitive exclusion, are modeled by introducing the Hamming distance between two sequences. We show that a suitable transform diagonalizes the community interaction matrix of these models, making it possible to predict the conditions for niche differentiation and, close to the instability onset, the asymptotically long time population distributions of niches. We exemplify our method using the Lotka-Volterra equations with an exponential competition kernel.

  15. A mechanistic niche model for measuring species' distributional responses to seasonal temperature gradients.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    William B Monahan

    Full Text Available Niche theory is central to understanding how species respond geographically to climate change. It defines a species' realized niche in a biological community, its fundamental niche as determined by physiology, and its potential niche--the fundamental niche in a given environment or geographic space. However, most predictions of the effects of climate change on species' distributions are limited to correlative models of the realized niche, which assume that species are in distributional equilibrium with respect to the variables or gradients included in the model. Here, I present a mechanistic niche model that measures species' responses to major seasonal temperature gradients that interact with the physiology of the organism. I then use lethal physiological temperatures to parameterize the model for bird species in North and South America and show that most focal bird species are not in direct physiological equilibrium with the gradients. Results also show that most focal bird species possess broad thermal tolerances encompassing novel climates that could become available with climate change. I conclude with discussion of how mechanistic niche models may be used to (i gain insights into the processes that cause species to respond to climate change and (ii build more accurate correlative distribution models in birds and other species.

  16. Improved Predictions of the Geographic Distribution of Invasive Plants Using Climatic Niche Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramírez-Albores, Jorge E; Bustamante, Ramiro O; Badano, Ernesto I

    2016-01-01

    Climatic niche models for invasive plants are usually constructed with occurrence records taken from literature and collections. Because these data neither discriminate among life-cycle stages of plants (adult or juvenile) nor the origin of individuals (naturally established or man-planted), the resulting models may mispredict the distribution ranges of these species. We propose that more accurate predictions could be obtained by modelling climatic niches with data of naturally established individuals, particularly with occurrence records of juvenile plants because this would restrict the predictions of models to those sites where climatic conditions allow the recruitment of the species. To test this proposal, we focused on the Peruvian peppertree (Schinus molle), a South American species that has largely invaded Mexico. Three climatic niche models were constructed for this species using high-resolution dataset gathered in the field. The first model included all occurrence records, irrespective of the life-cycle stage or origin of peppertrees (generalized niche model). The second model only included occurrence records of naturally established mature individuals (adult niche model), while the third model was constructed with occurrence records of naturally established juvenile plants (regeneration niche model). When models were compared, the generalized climatic niche model predicted the presence of peppertrees in sites located farther beyond the climatic thresholds that naturally established individuals can tolerate, suggesting that human activities influence the distribution of this invasive species. The adult and regeneration climatic niche models concurred in their predictions about the distribution of peppertrees, suggesting that naturally established adult trees only occur in sites where climatic conditions allow the recruitment of juvenile stages. These results support the proposal that climatic niches of invasive plants should be modelled with data of

  17. Improved Predictions of the Geographic Distribution of Invasive Plants Using Climatic Niche Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramírez-Albores, Jorge E.; Bustamante, Ramiro O.

    2016-01-01

    Climatic niche models for invasive plants are usually constructed with occurrence records taken from literature and collections. Because these data neither discriminate among life-cycle stages of plants (adult or juvenile) nor the origin of individuals (naturally established or man-planted), the resulting models may mispredict the distribution ranges of these species. We propose that more accurate predictions could be obtained by modelling climatic niches with data of naturally established individuals, particularly with occurrence records of juvenile plants because this would restrict the predictions of models to those sites where climatic conditions allow the recruitment of the species. To test this proposal, we focused on the Peruvian peppertree (Schinus molle), a South American species that has largely invaded Mexico. Three climatic niche models were constructed for this species using high-resolution dataset gathered in the field. The first model included all occurrence records, irrespective of the life-cycle stage or origin of peppertrees (generalized niche model). The second model only included occurrence records of naturally established mature individuals (adult niche model), while the third model was constructed with occurrence records of naturally established juvenile plants (regeneration niche model). When models were compared, the generalized climatic niche model predicted the presence of peppertrees in sites located farther beyond the climatic thresholds that naturally established individuals can tolerate, suggesting that human activities influence the distribution of this invasive species. The adult and regeneration climatic niche models concurred in their predictions about the distribution of peppertrees, suggesting that naturally established adult trees only occur in sites where climatic conditions allow the recruitment of juvenile stages. These results support the proposal that climatic niches of invasive plants should be modelled with data of

  18. Locating pleistocene refugia: comparing phylogeographic and ecological niche model predictions.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eric Waltari

    Full Text Available Ecological niche models (ENMs provide a means of characterizing the spatial distribution of suitable conditions for species, and have recently been applied to the challenge of locating potential distributional areas at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM when unfavorable climate conditions led to range contractions and fragmentation. Here, we compare and contrast ENM-based reconstructions of LGM refugial locations with those resulting from the more traditional molecular genetic and phylogeographic predictions. We examined 20 North American terrestrial vertebrate species from different regions and with different range sizes for which refugia have been identified based on phylogeographic analyses, using ENM tools to make parallel predictions. We then assessed the correspondence between the two approaches based on spatial overlap and areal extent of the predicted refugia. In 14 of the 20 species, the predictions from ENM and predictions based on phylogeographic studies were significantly spatially correlated, suggesting that the two approaches to development of refugial maps are converging on a similar result. Our results confirm that ENM scenario exploration can provide a useful complement to molecular studies, offering a less subjective, spatially explicit hypothesis of past geographic patterns of distribution.

  19. To predict the niche, model colonization and extinction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yackulic, Charles B.; Nichols, James D.; Reid, Janice; Der, Ricky

    2015-01-01

    Ecologists frequently try to predict the future geographic distributions of species. Most studies assume that the current distribution of a species reflects its environmental requirements (i.e., the species' niche). However, the current distributions of many species are unlikely to be at equilibrium with the current distribution of environmental conditions, both because of ongoing invasions and because the distribution of suitable environmental conditions is always changing. This mismatch between the equilibrium assumptions inherent in many analyses and the disequilibrium conditions in the real world leads to inaccurate predictions of species' geographic distributions and suggests the need for theory and analytical tools that avoid equilibrium assumptions. Here, we develop a general theory of environmental associations during periods of transient dynamics. We show that time-invariant relationships between environmental conditions and rates of local colonization and extinction can produce substantial temporal variation in occupancy–environment relationships. We then estimate occupancy–environment relationships during three avian invasions. Changes in occupancy–environment relationships over time differ among species but are predicted by dynamic occupancy models. Since estimates of the occupancy–environment relationships themselves are frequently poor predictors of future occupancy patterns, research should increasingly focus on characterizing how rates of local colonization and extinction vary with environmental conditions.

  20. EVOLUTIONARY DYNAMIC MODEL OF POPULATION WITH NICHE CONSTRUCTION AND ITS APPLICATION RESEARCH

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2006-01-01

    Based on the theories and approaches in biomechanics, the mechanism and pattern of niche construction were discussed systematically. Through establishing the spatial pattern of niche and its measuring-fitness formula, and the dynamic system models of single- and two-population with niche construction, including corresponding theoretical analysis and numerical simulation on their evolutionary dynamics of population and the mechanism of competitive coexistence, the co-evolutionary relationship between organisms and their environments was revealed. The results indicate that population dynamics is governed by positive feedback between primary ecological factors and resource content.Niche construction generates an evolutionary effect in system by influencing the fitness of population. A threshold effect exists in single population dynamic system. In dynamic system of two competitive populations, niche construction can lead to alternative competitive consequences, which may be a potential mechanism to explain the competitive coexistence of species.

  1. Biodiversity patterns from an individual-based competition model on niche and physical spaces

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    We formulate a microscopic (individual-based and spatially explicit) ecological model to assess whether key patterns of community structure, species-packing and the spatial distribution of species are robust to relaxing the mean-field approximation made in classical ecological models. In this model of community dynamics species compete both locally in physical space and along a niche axis and it includes just two free parameters, σ, controlling the extent of competition in niche space, and t, the simulation time. This minimalistic model (1) reproduces with considerable accuracy the dynamic sequence of relative species abundances, biodiversity indices and species–area relationships that are empirically found in censuses of trees in a well-studied tropical forest; (2) shows that the clumpy pattern of niches leading to long-lasting species coexistence obtained by classical competition models is robust to relaxing the mean-field assumption. Nevertheless species that are clumped in niche space are simultaneously spatially segregated

  2. Biodiversity patterns from an individual-based competition model on niche and physical spaces

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fort, H.; Inchausti, P.

    2012-02-01

    We formulate a microscopic (individual-based and spatially explicit) ecological model to assess whether key patterns of community structure, species-packing and the spatial distribution of species are robust to relaxing the mean-field approximation made in classical ecological models. In this model of community dynamics species compete both locally in physical space and along a niche axis and it includes just two free parameters, σ, controlling the extent of competition in niche space, and t, the simulation time. This minimalistic model (1) reproduces with considerable accuracy the dynamic sequence of relative species abundances, biodiversity indices and species-area relationships that are empirically found in censuses of trees in a well-studied tropical forest; (2) shows that the clumpy pattern of niches leading to long-lasting species coexistence obtained by classical competition models is robust to relaxing the mean-field assumption. Nevertheless species that are clumped in niche space are simultaneously spatially segregated.

  3. Global and niche ecosystem in a simple dynamical model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sertorio, L. [Turin Univ., Turin (Italy). Dipt. di Fisica Teorica; Tinetti, G. [Istituto Nazionale di Fisica Nucleare, Turin (Italy)

    2000-12-01

    In this paper it is adopted the viewpoint that the living ecosystem can be described by a dynamical system, where the variables are the populations of the various species. It is discussed the assumptions which justify the reduction of the number of variables to only three, according to the hierarchy herbs, herbivores, carnivores. In this way the dynamics takes into account a basic physical constraints, namely the global energy chain, where the input is the solar flux. This system is dissipative and stable. The next question is whether the global dynamics may contain a niche. It is tried to define the concept of niche as a subsystem having a self-contained cycle. It is chosen a Lotka-Volterra subsystem as the simplest realization of such a cycle. Moreover it is analyzed which assumptions must be made and which conditions must be satisfied for the appearance of a Lotka-Volterra subsystem within the global energy chain. Then it is showed that while the complex global ecosystem is strong, namely is able to adapt itself to variations of the driving term, the niche is fragile.

  4. Diversity and Habitat Niche Modeling of Candidate Archaeal Phylum Aigarchaeota

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alba, T. W.; Goertz, G.; Williams, A. J.; Cole, J. K.; Murugapiran, S. K.; Dodsworth, J. A.; Hedlund, B. P.

    2013-12-01

    ';Aigarchaeota' (formerly known as pSL4 and Hot Water Crenarchaeotic Group I (HWCGI)) is a candidate phylum of Archaea known only by 16S rRNA gene fragments from cultivation-independent microbial surveys and a single composite genome from Candidatus ';Caldiarchaeum subterraneum', an inhabitant of a subterranean gold mine in Japan. Sequences reported in various publications are found exclusively in geothermal settings, but a comprehensive assessment has not yet been performed. We mined public databases for 16S rRNA gene sequences related to known ';Aigarchaeota' and used a combination of approaches to rigorously define the phylogenetic boundaries of the phylum. The analyses supported the proposed relationship between ';Aigarchaeota', Thaumarchaeota, Crenarchaeota, and Korarchaeota in the so-called 'TACK superphylum' and identified ~200 16S rRNA genes and gene fragments belonging to ';Aigarchaeota', including those recovered from terrestrial geothermal systems on several continents (North America, Asia, Africa, Europe, and Oceania) and marine geothermal and subsurface samples in both the Atlantic and Pacific. ';Aigarchaeota' belonged to at least three family- to order-level groups and at least seven genus-level groups. All genus-level groups were recovered from geographically distant locations, suggesting a global distribution within amenable habitats. ';Aigarchaeota'-specific primers for the polymerase chain reaction (PCR) amplification of 16S rRNA genes were designed using SP-Designer and reviewed using the Ribosomal Database Project Probe Match tool. The primers will be used to determine the presence and abundance of ';Aigarchaeota' in a wide variety of samples from terrestrial geothermal systems in the western U.S. and Asia. These phylogenetic data, along with a large geochemical database, will be analyzed using multivariate statistics to develop biogeographic and habitat niche models for ';Aigarchaeota'. This study offers the first coherent view of the

  5. Place prioritization for biodiversity content using species ecological niche modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Víctor Sánchez-Cordero

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Place prioritization for biodiversity representation is essential for conservation planning, particularly in megadiverse countries where high deforestation threatens biodiversity. Given the collecting biases and uneven sampling of biological inventories, there is a need to develop robust models of species’ distributions. By modeling species’ ecological niches using point occurrence data and digitized environmental feature maps, we can predict potential and extant distributions of species in untransformed landscapes, as well as in those transformed by vegetation change (including deforestation. Such distributional predictions provide a framework for use of species as biodiversity surrogates in place prioritization procedures such as those based on rarity and complementarity. Beyond biodiversity conservation, these predictions can also be used for place prioritization for ecological restoration under current conditions and under future scenarios of habitat change (e.g., deforestation scenarios. To illustrate these points, we (1 predict distributions under current and future deforestation scenarios for the Mexican endemic mammal Dipodomys phillipsii, and show how areas for restoration may be selected; and (2 propose conservation areas by combining nonvolant mammal distributional predictions as biodiversity surrogates with place prioritization procedures, to connect decreed natural protected areas in a region holding exceptional biodiversity: the Transvolcanic Belt in central Mexico. La selección de áreas prioritarias de conservación es fundamental en la planeación sistemática de la conservación, particularmente en países de mega-diversidad, en donde la alta deforestación es una de las amenazas a la biodiversidad. Debido a los sesgos taxonómicos y geográficos de colecta de los inventarios biológicos, es indispensable generar modelos robustos de distribución de especies. Al modelar el nicho ecológico de especies usando localidades de

  6. Ecological niche modeling of sympatric krill predators around Marguerite Bay, Western Antarctic Peninsula

    Science.gov (United States)

    Friedlaender, Ari S.; Johnston, David W.; Fraser, William R.; Burns, Jennifer; Halpin, Patrick N.; Costa, Daniel P.

    2011-07-01

    Adélie penguins ( Pygoscelis adeliae), carabeater seals ( Lobodon carcinophagus), humpback ( Megaptera novaeangliae), and minke whales ( Balaenoptera bonaernsis) are found in the waters surrounding the Western Antarctic Peninsula. Each species relies primarily on Antarctic krill ( Euphausia superba) and has physiological constraints and foraging behaviors that dictate their ecological niches. Understanding the degree of ecological overlap between sympatric krill predators is critical to understanding and predicting the impacts on climate-driven changes to the Antarctic marine ecosystem. To explore ecological relationships amongst sympatric krill predators, we developed ecological niche models using a maximum entropy modeling approach (Maxent) that allows the integration of data collected by a variety of means (e.g. satellite-based locations and visual observations). We created spatially explicit probability distributions for the four krill predators in fall 2001 and 2002 in conjunction with a suite of environmental variables. We find areas within Marguerite Bay with high krill predator occurrence rates or biological hot spots. We find the modeled ecological niches for Adélie penguins and crabeater seals may be affected by their physiological needs to haul-out on substrate. Thus, their distributions may be less dictated by proximity to prey and more so by physical features that over time provide adequate access to prey. Humpback and minke whales, being fully marine and having greater energetic demands, occupy ecological niches more directly proximate to prey. We also find evidence to suggest that the amount of overlap between modeled niches is relatively low, even for species with similar energetic requirements. In a rapidly changing and variable environment, our modeling work shows little indication that krill predators maintain similar ecological niches across years around Marguerite Bay. Given the amount of variability in the marine environment around the

  7. Niche and neutral models predict asymptotically equivalent species abundance distributions in high-diversity ecological communities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chisholm, Ryan A.; Pacala, Stephen W.

    2010-01-01

    A fundamental challenge in ecology is to understand the mechanisms that govern patterns of relative species abundance. Previous numerical simulations have suggested that complex niche-structured models produce species abundance distributions (SADs) that are qualitatively similar to those of very simple neutral models that ignore differences between species. However, in the absence of an analytical treatment of niche models, one cannot tell whether the two classes of model produce the same patterns via similar or different mechanisms. We present an analytical proof that, in the limit as diversity becomes large, a strong niche model give rises to exactly the same asymptotic form of SAD as the neutral model, and we verify the analytical predictions for a Panamanian tropical forest data set. Our results strongly suggest that neutral processes drive patterns of relative species abundance in high-diversity ecological communities, even when strong niche structure exists. However, neutral theory cannot explain what generates high diversity in the first place, and it may not be valid in low-diversity communities. Our results also confirm that neutral theory cannot be used to infer an absence of niche structure or to explain ecosystem function. PMID:20733073

  8. Interpretation of Models of Fundamental Ecological Niches and Species’ Distributional Areas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jorge Soberon

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Ecological niche modeling—that is, estimation of the dimensions of fundamental ecological niches of species—to predict their geographic distributions is increasingly being employed in systematics, ecology, conservation, public health, etc. This technique is often (of necessity based on data comprising records of presences only. In recent years, many modeling approaches have been devised to estimate these interrelated expressions of a species’ ecology, distributional biology, and evolutionary history—nevertheless, in many cases, a formal basis in ecological and evolutionary theory has been lacking. In this paper, we outline such a formal basis for the suite of techniques that can be termed ‘ecological niche modeling,’ analyze example situations that can be modeled using these techniques, and clarify the interpretation of results.

  9. The modeling of the nuclear composition measurement performance of the Non-Imaging CHErenkov Array (NICHE)

    CERN Document Server

    Krizmanic, John; Sokolsky, Pierre

    2013-01-01

    In its initial deployment, the Non-Imaging CHErenkov Array (NICHE)will measure the flux and nuclear composition of cosmic rays from below 10^16 eV to 10^18 eV by using measurements of the amplitude and time-spread of the air-shower Cherenkov signal to achieve a robust event-by-event measurement of Xmax and energy. NICHE will have sufficient area and angular acceptance to have significant overlap with TA/TALE, within which NICHE is located, to allow for energy cross-calibration. In order to quantify NICHE's ability to measure the cosmic ray nuclear composition, 4-component composition models were constructed based upon a poly-gonato model of J. Hoerandel using simulated Xmax distributions of the composite composition as a function of energy. These composition distributions were then unfolded into individual components via an analysis technique that included NICHE's simulated Xmax and energy resolution performance as a function of energy as well as the effects of finite event statistics. Details of the construc...

  10. Metabolic modelling reveals the specialization of secondary replicons for niche adaptation in Sinorhizobium meliloti.

    Science.gov (United States)

    diCenzo, George C; Checcucci, Alice; Bazzicalupo, Marco; Mengoni, Alessio; Viti, Carlo; Dziewit, Lukasz; Finan, Turlough M; Galardini, Marco; Fondi, Marco

    2016-01-01

    The genome of about 10% of bacterial species is divided among two or more large chromosome-sized replicons. The contribution of each replicon to the microbial life cycle (for example, environmental adaptations and/or niche switching) remains unclear. Here we report a genome-scale metabolic model of the legume symbiont Sinorhizobium meliloti that is integrated with carbon utilization data for 1,500 genes with 192 carbon substrates. Growth of S. meliloti is modelled in three ecological niches (bulk soil, rhizosphere and nodule) with a focus on the role of each of its three replicons. We observe clear metabolic differences during growth in the tested ecological niches and an overall reprogramming following niche switching. In silico examination of the inferred fitness of gene deletion mutants suggests that secondary replicons evolved to fulfil a specialized function, particularly host-associated niche adaptation. Thus, genes on secondary replicons might potentially be manipulated to promote or suppress host interactions for biotechnological purposes. PMID:27447951

  11. Domestic policy consequences of new implementation models. Consequences for industrial niches

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The paper relates to the consequences of domestic policy with the focus on new implementation models used for cost reduction of offshore development projects in Norway. The paper puts the attention to the consequences from implementation models on industrial niches (subcontractors)

  12. Ecological niche modeling of Bacillus anthracis on three continents: evidence for genetic-ecological divergence?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jocelyn C Mullins

    Full Text Available We modeled the ecological niche of a globally successful Bacillus anthracis sublineage in the United States, Italy and Kazakhstan to better understand the geographic distribution of anthrax and potential associations between regional populations and ecology. Country-specific ecological-niche models were developed and reciprocally transferred to the other countries to determine if pathogen presence could be accurately predicted on novel landscapes. Native models accurately predicted endemic areas within each country, but transferred models failed to predict known occurrences in the outside countries. While the effects of variable selection and limitations of the genetic data should be considered, results suggest differing ecological associations for the B. anthracis populations within each country and may reflect niche specialization within the sublineage. Our findings provide guidance for developing accurate ecological niche models for this pathogen; models should be developed regionally, on the native landscape, and with consideration to population genetics. Further genomic analysis will improve our understanding of the genetic-ecological dynamics of B. anthracis across these countries and may lead to more refined predictive models for surveillance and proactive vaccination programs. Further studies should evaluate the impact of variable selection of native and transferred models.

  13. Robustness and accuracy of Maxent niche modelling for Lactuca species distributions in light of collecting expeditions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cobben, M.M.P.; Treuren, van R.; Castaneda-Alvarez, N.P.; Khoury, C.K.; Kik, C.; Hintum, van T.J.L.

    2015-01-01

    Niche modelling software can be used to assess the probability of detecting a population of a plant species at a certain location. In this study, we used the distribution of the wild relatives of lettuce (Lactuca spp.) to investigate the applicability of Maxent species distribution models for collec

  14. The significance of using satellite imagery data only in Ecological Niche Modelling of Iberian herps

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sillero, N.; Brito, J.C.; Martin-Alfageme, S.; Garcia-Melendez, E.; Toxopeus, A.G.; Skidmore, A.K.

    2012-01-01

    The environmental data used to calculate ecological niche models (ENM) are obtained mainly from ground-based maps (e.g., climatic interpolated surfaces). These data are often not available for less developed areas, or may be at an inappropriate scale, and thus to obtain this information requires fie

  15. Reversible neural stem cell niche dysfunction in a model of multiple sclerosis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Stine; Imitola, Jaime; Ayuso-Sacido, Angel;

    2011-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: The subventricular zone (SVZ) of the brain constitutes a niche for neural stem and progenitor cells that can initiate repair after central nervous system (CNS) injury. In a relapsing-remitting model of experimental autoimmune encephalomyelitis (EAE), the neural stem cells (NSCs) become...

  16. A niche model to predict Microcystis bloom decline in Chaohu Lake, China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WANG Zhicong; LI Zhongjie; LI Dunhai

    2012-01-01

    Cyanobacterial blooms occur frequently in lakes due to eutrophication.Although a number of models have been proposed to forecast algal blooms,a good and applicable method is still lacking.This study explored a simple and effective mathematical-ecological model to evaluate the growth status and predict the population dynamics of Microcystis blooms.In this study,phytoplankton were collected and identified from 8 sampling sites in Chaohu Lake every month from July to October,2010.The niche breadth and niche overlap of common species were calculated using standard equations,and the potential relative growth rates of Microcystis were calculated as a weighted-value of niche overlap.In July,the potential relative growth rate was 2.79 (a.u.,arbitrary units) but then rapidly declined in the following months to -3.99 a.u.in September.A significant correlation (R=0.998,P<0.01) was found in the model between the net-increase in biomass of Microcystis in the field and the predicted values calculated by the niche model,we concluded that the niche model is suitable for forecasting the dynamics of Microcystis blooms.Redundancy analysis indicated that decreases in water temperature,dissolved oxygen and total dissolved phosphorus might be major factors underlying bloom decline.Based on the theory of community succession being caused by resource competition,the growth and decline of blooms can be predicted from a community structure.This may provide a basis for early warning and control of algal blooms.

  17. Ecological Niche Model used to examine the distribution of an invasive, non-indigenous coral.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carlos-Júnior, L A; Barbosa, N P U; Moulton, T P; Creed, J C

    2015-02-01

    All organisms have a set of ecological conditions (or niche) which they depend on to survive and establish in a given habitat. The ecological niche of a species limits its geographical distribution. In the particular case of non-indigenous species (NIS), the ecological requirements of the species impose boundaries on the potential distribution of the organism in the new receptor regions. This is a theoretical assumption implicit when Ecological Niche Models (ENMs) are used to assess the potential distribution of NIS. This assumption has been questioned, given that in some cases niche shift may occur during the process of invasion. We used ENMs to investigate whether the model fit with data from the native range of the coral Tubastraea coccinea Lesson, 1829 successfully predicts its invasion in the Atlantic. We also identified which factors best explain the distribution of this NIS. The broad native distributional range of T. coccinea predicted the invaded sites well, especially along the Brazilian coast, the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico. The occurrence of T. coccinea was positively related to calcite levels and negatively to eutrophy, but was rather unaffected to other variables that often limit other marine organisms, suggesting that this NIS has wide ecological limits, a trait typical of invasive species. PMID:25465286

  18. mMWeb--an online platform for employing multiple ecological niche modeling algorithms.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huijie Qiao

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Predicting the ecological niche and potential habitat distribution of a given organism is one of the central domains of ecological and biogeographical research. A wide variety of modeling techniques have been developed for this purpose. In order to implement these models, the users must prepare a specific runtime environment for each model, learn how to use multiple model platforms, and prepare data in a different format each time. Additionally, often model results are difficult to interpret, and a standardized method for comparing model results across platforms does not exist. We developed a free and open source online platform, the multi-models web-based (mMWeb platform, to address each of these problems, providing a novel environment in which the user can implement and compare multiple ecological niche model (ENM algorithms. METHODOLOGY: mMWeb combines 18 existing ENMs and their corresponding algorithms and provides a uniform procedure for modeling the potential habitat niche of a species via a common web browser. mMWeb uses Java Native Interface (JNI, Java R Interface to combine the different ENMs and executes multiple tasks in parallel on a super computer. The cross-platform, user-friendly interface of mMWeb simplifies the process of building ENMs, providing an accessible and efficient environment from which to explore and compare different model algorithms.

  19. Reconciling phylogeography and ecological niche models for New Zealand beetles looking beyond glacial refugia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Marske, Katharine Ann; Leschen, Richard; Buckley, Thomas

    2011-01-01

    stochastic search variable selection incorporated in BEAST to identify historical dispersal patterns via ancestral state reconstruction. Ecological niche models (ENMs) were incorporated to reconstruct the potential geographic distribution of each species during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Coalescent......Mitochondrial DNA (cox1) sequence data and recently developed coalescent phylogeography models were used to construct geo-spatial histories for the New Zealand fungus beetles Epistranus lawsoni and Pristoderus bakewelli (Zopheridae). These methods utilize continuous-time Markov chains and Bayesian...

  20. Large-scale distribution analysis of Antarctic echinoids using ecological niche modelling

    OpenAIRE

    Pierrat, B.; Saucede, T.; Laffont, R.; De Ridder, C.; Festeau, A.; David, B.

    2012-01-01

    Understanding the factors that determine the distribution of taxa at various spatial scales is a crucial challenge in the context of global climate change. This holds particularly true for polar marine biota that are composed of both highly adapted and vulnerable faunas. We analysed the distribution of 2 Antarctic echinoid species, Sterechinus antarcticus and S. neumayeri, at the scale of the entire Southern Ocean using 2 niche modelling procedures. The performance of distribution models was ...

  1. The fate of the Arctic seaweed Fucus distichus under climate change: an ecological niche modeling approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jueterbock, Alexander; Smolina, Irina; Coyer, James A; Hoarau, Galice

    2016-03-01

    Rising temperatures are predicted to melt all perennial ice cover in the Arctic by the end of this century, thus opening up suitable habitat for temperate and subarctic species. Canopy-forming seaweeds provide an ideal system to predict the potential impact of climate-change on rocky-shore ecosystems, given their direct dependence on temperature and their key role in the ecological system. Our primary objective was to predict the climate-change induced range-shift of Fucus distichus, the dominant canopy-forming macroalga in the Arctic and subarctic rocky intertidal. More specifically, we asked: which Arctic/subarctic and cold-temperate shores of the northern hemisphere will display the greatest distributional change of F. distichus and how will this affect niche overlap with seaweeds from temperate regions? We used the program MAXENT to develop correlative ecological niche models with dominant range-limiting factors and 169 occurrence records. Using three climate-change scenarios, we projected habitat suitability of F. distichus - and its niche overlap with three dominant temperate macroalgae - until year 2200. Maximum sea surface temperature was identified as the most important factor in limiting the fundamental niche of F. distichus. Rising temperatures were predicted to have low impact on the species' southern distribution limits, but to shift its northern distribution limits poleward into the high Arctic. In cold-temperate to subarctic regions, new areas of niche overlap were predicted between F. distichus and intertidal macroalgae immigrating from the south. While climate-change threatens intertidal seaweeds in warm-temperate regions, seaweed meadows will likely flourish in the Arctic intertidal. Although this enriches biodiversity and opens up new seaweed-harvesting grounds, it will also trigger unpredictable changes in the structure and functioning of the Arctic intertidal ecosystem. PMID:27087933

  2. Ecological Niche Modeling Approaches to Conservation of Endangered and Threatened Birds in Central and Eastern Europe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Monica Papes

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Comprehensive biodiversity surveys are unavailable for most Central and Eastern European countries. Although birds in general are well-studied, distributional information in the region is sparse and largely out-of of-date; I used museum specimen locality records and raster GIS data layers summarizing environmental dimensions to produce distributional hypotheses for the 36 threatened and endangered bird species in the region using ecological niche modeling. These ecological niche models were also used to predict likely future (2055 distributional shifts owing to global climate change. The entire suite of distributional information that resulted was used to evaluate strategies for conservation via simple heuristic place-prioritization algorithms based on complementarity and rarity considerations. These analyses identified priority areas in southern and eastern Romania, as well as other areas across the region, as priority targets for conservation action in the region.

  3. Why not use niche modelling for computing risk of wildfires ignition and spreading?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alessandro Ferrarini

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available A forest fire can be a true ecological calamity, regardless of whether it is caused by natural forces or human actions. Although it is impossible to control nature, it is possible to map wildfire risk zones, and thence minimize the frequency of wildfires and prevent damages. Wildfire risk zones are locations where a fire is likely to start, and from where it can spread to other areas. Predictions of wildfires ignitions are critical aspects of biodiversity conservation and management, and they are only possible when a reliable fire risk zone map is available. I suggest in this paper that wildfire ignition risk computed from points of past wildfires obeys the same conceptual and mathematical rules of niche models commonly applied to points of sampled plants or animals. Therefore, niche modeling can also be an inductive approach for an effective and inexpensive computation of wildfires ignition and spreading likelihood.

  4. Distribution and Conservation of Davilla (Dilleniaceae) in Brazilian Atlantic Forest Using Ecological Niche Modeling

    OpenAIRE

    Ismael Martins Pereira; Vera Lúcia Gomes-Klein; Milton Groppo

    2014-01-01

    We have modeled the ecological niche for 12 plant species belonging to the genus Davilla (Dilleniaceae) which occur in the Atlantic Forest of Brazil. This group includes endemic species lianas threatened by extinction and is therefore a useful indicator for forest areas requiring conservation. The aims are to compare the distribution and richness of species within the protected areas, assessing the degree of protection and gap analysis of reserves for this group. We used the Maxent algorithm ...

  5. Diatom Cooccurrence Shows Less Segregation than Predicted from Niche Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soininen, Janne; Alard, Didier; Rosebery, Juliette

    2016-01-01

    Species cooccurrence patterns give significant insights into the processes shaping communities. While biotic interactions have been widely studied using cooccurrence analyses in animals and larger plants, studies about cooccurrences among micro-organisms are still relatively rare. We examined stream diatom cooccurrences in France through a national database of samples. In order to test the relative influence of environmental, biotic and spatial constraints on species’ incidence distribution, cooccurrence and nestedness patterns of real communities were compared with the patterns generated from a set of standard and environmentally constrained null models. Real communities showed a higher level of segregation than the most conservative standard null models, but a general aggregation of cooccurrences when compared to environmentally constrained null models. We did not find any evidence of limiting similarity between cooccurring species. Aggregations of species cooccurrences were associated with the high levels of nestedness. Altogether, these results suggested that biotic interactions were not structuring cooccurrences of diatom species at our study scale. Instead, the patterns were more likely to be related with colonization patterns, mass effect, and local temporal dynamics of diatom biofilms. We further highlight that the association of standard and environmentally constrained null models may give realistic insight into the cooccurrence patterns of microbial communities. PMID:27128737

  6. Diatom Cooccurrence Shows Less Segregation than Predicted from Niche Modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bottin, Marius; Soininen, Janne; Alard, Didier; Rosebery, Juliette

    2016-01-01

    Species cooccurrence patterns give significant insights into the processes shaping communities. While biotic interactions have been widely studied using cooccurrence analyses in animals and larger plants, studies about cooccurrences among micro-organisms are still relatively rare. We examined stream diatom cooccurrences in France through a national database of samples. In order to test the relative influence of environmental, biotic and spatial constraints on species' incidence distribution, cooccurrence and nestedness patterns of real communities were compared with the patterns generated from a set of standard and environmentally constrained null models. Real communities showed a higher level of segregation than the most conservative standard null models, but a general aggregation of cooccurrences when compared to environmentally constrained null models. We did not find any evidence of limiting similarity between cooccurring species. Aggregations of species cooccurrences were associated with the high levels of nestedness. Altogether, these results suggested that biotic interactions were not structuring cooccurrences of diatom species at our study scale. Instead, the patterns were more likely to be related with colonization patterns, mass effect, and local temporal dynamics of diatom biofilms. We further highlight that the association of standard and environmentally constrained null models may give realistic insight into the cooccurrence patterns of microbial communities. PMID:27128737

  7. Diatom Cooccurrence Shows Less Segregation than Predicted from Niche Modeling.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marius Bottin

    Full Text Available Species cooccurrence patterns give significant insights into the processes shaping communities. While biotic interactions have been widely studied using cooccurrence analyses in animals and larger plants, studies about cooccurrences among micro-organisms are still relatively rare. We examined stream diatom cooccurrences in France through a national database of samples. In order to test the relative influence of environmental, biotic and spatial constraints on species' incidence distribution, cooccurrence and nestedness patterns of real communities were compared with the patterns generated from a set of standard and environmentally constrained null models. Real communities showed a higher level of segregation than the most conservative standard null models, but a general aggregation of cooccurrences when compared to environmentally constrained null models. We did not find any evidence of limiting similarity between cooccurring species. Aggregations of species cooccurrences were associated with the high levels of nestedness. Altogether, these results suggested that biotic interactions were not structuring cooccurrences of diatom species at our study scale. Instead, the patterns were more likely to be related with colonization patterns, mass effect, and local temporal dynamics of diatom biofilms. We further highlight that the association of standard and environmentally constrained null models may give realistic insight into the cooccurrence patterns of microbial communities.

  8. Geological 3D model of the investigation niche in ONKALO, Olkiluoto, southwestern Finland

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Koittola, N.

    2014-07-15

    The main goal of this Master of Science Thesis was to create a geological 3D-model of the investigation niche 3 and its surroundings. The model were created for the needs of the rock mechanical back analysis. This study is a part of Posiva's regional studies for characterization of the bedrock. Totally 4 models were created: lithological model, foliation model, fracture model, and physical rock property model. Besides the modeling, there was also made a study of the migmatite structures in the niche. Used geological and geophysical methods were drill core loggings, tunnel mapping, ground penetration radar, mise-a-la-masse and drill hole geophysics. Four rock types exist at the niche area: veined gneiss, pegmatite granite, diatexitic gneiss and quartz gneiss. The lithological units were modeled primary with the drill core loggings, tunnel mapping and ground penetrating radar. The major lithological units followed the main foliation direction (south dipping). So the continuations were fairly easy to model in the walls and roof, where the data was lacking. Foliation and fractures were modeled as discs, with mid-points at the measurement points of the structure. There were two main foliation directions 164/46 and 62/39. Fractures were more scattered but three fracture sets can be separated: 156/34, 270/85 and 342/83. The first set is mainly from the drill core loggings, second and third from tunnel mapping. Used methods in foliation model were drill core loggings, tunnel mapping and drill hole geophysics. In fracture model used data was from drill core loggings, tunnel mapping, mise-a-la-masse measurements and drill core geophysic. Four anomalous zones were detected with the drill hole geophysics. Three of these zones were associated with intensely fractured zones and one was connected to exceptionally high mica content in the gneiss. Rocks of Olkiluoto are divided into gneisses and magmatic rocks in the geological mapping. Actually almost all Olkiluoto

  9. Geological 3D model of the investigation niche in ONKALO, Olkiluoto, southwestern Finland

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The main goal of this Master of Science Thesis was to create a geological 3D-model of the investigation niche 3 and its surroundings. The model were created for the needs of the rock mechanical back analysis. This study is a part of Posiva's regional studies for characterization of the bedrock. Totally 4 models were created: lithological model, foliation model, fracture model, and physical rock property model. Besides the modeling, there was also made a study of the migmatite structures in the niche. Used geological and geophysical methods were drill core loggings, tunnel mapping, ground penetration radar, mise-a-la-masse and drill hole geophysics. Four rock types exist at the niche area: veined gneiss, pegmatite granite, diatexitic gneiss and quartz gneiss. The lithological units were modeled primary with the drill core loggings, tunnel mapping and ground penetrating radar. The major lithological units followed the main foliation direction (south dipping). So the continuations were fairly easy to model in the walls and roof, where the data was lacking. Foliation and fractures were modeled as discs, with mid-points at the measurement points of the structure. There were two main foliation directions 164/46 and 62/39. Fractures were more scattered but three fracture sets can be separated: 156/34, 270/85 and 342/83. The first set is mainly from the drill core loggings, second and third from tunnel mapping. Used methods in foliation model were drill core loggings, tunnel mapping and drill hole geophysics. In fracture model used data was from drill core loggings, tunnel mapping, mise-a-la-masse measurements and drill core geophysic. Four anomalous zones were detected with the drill hole geophysics. Three of these zones were associated with intensely fractured zones and one was connected to exceptionally high mica content in the gneiss. Rocks of Olkiluoto are divided into gneisses and magmatic rocks in the geological mapping. Actually almost all Olkiluoto's rocks are

  10. Using ecological niche models to support tree species selection for forest restoration planning in largely deforested regions

    OpenAIRE

    Gastón González, Aitor; Garcia Viñas, Juan Ignacio

    2011-01-01

    Species selection for forest restoration is often supported by expert knowledge on local distribution patterns of native tree species. This approach is not applicable to largely deforested regions unless enough data on pre-human tree species distribution is available. In such regions, ecological niche models may provide essential information to support species selection in the framework of forest restoration planning. In this study we used ecological niche models to predict habitat suitabilit...

  11. Estimating Niche Width Using Stable Isotopes in the Face of Habitat Variability: A Modelling Case Study in the Marine Environment

    OpenAIRE

    David O Cummings; Jerome Buhl; Lee, Raymond W.; Stephen J Simpson; Sebastian P Holmes

    2012-01-01

    Distributions of stable isotopes have been used to infer an organism's trophic niche width, the 'isotopic niche', and examine resource partitioning. Spatial variation in the isotopic composition of prey may however confound the interpretation of isotopic signatures especially when foragers exploit resources across numerous locations. In this study the isotopic compositions from marine assemblages are modelled to determine the role of variation in the signature of prey items and the effect of ...

  12. Ecological Niche Modeling for the Prediction of the Geographic Distribution of Cutaneous Leishmaniasis in Tunisia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chalghaf, Bilel; Chlif, Sadok; Mayala, Benjamin; Ghawar, Wissem; Bettaieb, Jihène; Harrabi, Myriam; Benie, Goze Bertin; Michael, Edwin; Salah, Afif Ben

    2016-04-01

    Cutaneous leishmaniasis is a very complex disease involving multiple factors that limit its emergence and spatial distribution. Prediction of cutaneous leishmaniasis epidemics in Tunisia remains difficult because most of the epidemiological tools used so far are descriptive in nature and mainly focus on a time dimension. The purpose of this work is to predict the potential geographic distribution ofPhlebotomus papatasiand zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis caused byLeishmania majorin Tunisia using Grinnellian ecological niche modeling. We attempted to assess the importance of environmental factors influencing the potential distribution ofP. papatasiand cutaneous leishmaniasis caused byL. major Vectors were trapped in central Tunisia during the transmission season using CDC light traps (John W. Hock Co., Gainesville, FL). A global positioning system was used to record the geographical coordinates of vector occurrence points and households tested positive for cutaneous leishmaniasis caused byL. major Nine environmental layers were used as predictor variables to model theP. papatasigeographical distribution and five variables were used to model theL. majorpotential distribution. Ecological niche modeling was used to relate known species' occurrence points to values of environmental factors for these same points to predict the presence of the species in unsampled regions based on the value of the predictor variables. Rainfall and temperature contributed the most as predictors for sand flies and human case distributions. Ecological niche modeling anticipated the current distribution ofP. papatasiwith the highest suitability for species occurrence in the central and southeastern part of Tunisian. Furthermore, our study demonstrated that governorates of Gafsa, Sidi Bouzid, and Kairouan are at highest epidemic risk. PMID:26856914

  13. Modelling the multidimensional niche by linking functional traits to competitive performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maynard, Daniel S; Leonard, Kenneth E; Drake, John M; Hall, David W; Crowther, Thomas W; Bradford, Mark A

    2015-07-22

    Linking competitive outcomes to environmental conditions is necessary for understanding species' distributions and responses to environmental change. Despite this importance, generalizable approaches for predicting competitive outcomes across abiotic gradients are lacking, driven largely by the highly complex and context-dependent nature of biotic interactions. Here, we present and empirically test a novel niche model that uses functional traits to model the niche space of organisms and predict competitive outcomes of co-occurring populations across multiple resource gradients. The model makes no assumptions about the underlying mode of competition and instead applies to those settings where relative competitive ability across environments correlates with a quantifiable performance metric. To test the model, a series of controlled microcosm experiments were conducted using genetically related strains of a widespread microbe. The model identified trait microevolution and performance differences among strains, with the predicted competitive ability of each organism mapped across a two-dimensional carbon and nitrogen resource space. Areas of coexistence and competitive dominance between strains were identified,and the predicted competitive outcomes were validated in approximately 95% of the pairings. By linking trait variation to competitive ability, our work demonstrates a generalizable approach for predicting and modelling competitive outcomes across changing environmental contexts. PMID:26136444

  14. Ecological niche model to predict the potential distribution of phytoplankton in the Aguamilpa Dam, Nayarit. Mexico

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Humberto Macias-Cuellar

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Phytoplankton species are an important basis of the food web for various systems such as pelagic, coastal and lake. Due to their photosynthetic capacity, this community is sensitive to changes in light availability, temperature, nutrient concentrations, herbivores consumption, parasitism and competition. Therefore, they show a high spatial and temporal variability related to environmental changes both natural and anthropogenic. However, as any taxonomic group, phytoplankton species have environmental thresholds, ecological niches that define their distribution. This study was located in Aguamilpa Dam, an artificial aquatic reservoir which started operations in 1994 for electric energy production. In this system the potential distribution of the phytoplankton was evaluated, where the highest species richness and restricted distribution areas were identified. Potential distribution models based on ecological niche definition were generated using ArcMap 9.2® with Maxent (Maximun Entropy Method. The development of distribution maps was carried out using Digital Elevation Models in cells of 100 m x 100 m (1 ha, based on nine physico-chemical and biological water parameters monitored in the reservoir. The highest species richness areas were found in the Huaynamota river tributary and at the station called La Confluencia, while the less abundance areas were found in the Santiago river tributary during warm and cold dry seasons with a great abundance of cyanophyta. During the rainfall season, the Huaynamota river tributary diversity areas were extended and the presence of some dominant species of cyanophyta were indentified. These species can be associated with trophic processes related to anthropogenic pollutants in the reservoir. This study illustrates the potential application of niche modeling approach in aquatic ecosystems.

  15. Mapping the potential risk of mycetoma infection in Sudan and South Sudan using ecological niche modeling.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abdallah M Samy

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available In 2013, the World Health Organization (WHO recognized mycetoma as one of the neglected tropical conditions due to the efforts of the mycetoma consortium. This same consortium formulated knowledge gaps that require further research. One of these gaps was that very few data are available on the epidemiology and transmission cycle of the causative agents. Previous work suggested a soil-borne or Acacia thorn-prick-mediated origin of mycetoma infections, but no studies have investigated effects of soil type and Acacia geographic distribution on mycetoma case distributions. Here, we map risk of mycetoma infection across Sudan and South Sudan using ecological niche modeling (ENM. For this study, records of mycetoma cases were obtained from the scientific literature and GIDEON; Acacia records were obtained from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility. We developed ENMs based on digital GIS data layers summarizing soil characteristics, land-surface temperature, and greenness indices to provide a rich picture of environmental variation across Sudan and South Sudan. ENMs were calibrated in known endemic districts and transferred countrywide; model results suggested that risk is greatest in an east-west belt across central Sudan. Visualizing ENMs in environmental dimensions, mycetoma occurs under diverse environmental conditions. We compared niches of mycetoma and Acacia trees, and could not reject the null hypothesis of niche similarity. This study revealed contributions of different environmental factors to mycetoma infection risk, identified suitable environments and regions for transmission, signaled a potential mycetoma-Acacia association, and provided steps towards a robust risk map for the disease.

  16. Coupling genetic and ecological-niche models to examine how past population distributions contribute to divergence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knowles, L Lacey; Carstens, Bryan C; Keat, Marcia L

    2007-06-01

    Understanding the impact of climate-induced distributional shifts on species divergence, like those accompanying the Pleistocene glacial cycles [1, 2], requires tools that explicitly incorporate the geographic configuration of past distributions into analyses of genetic differentiation. Depending on the historical distribution of species, genetic differences may accumulate among ancestral source populations, but there is long-standing debate whether displacements into glacial refugia promoted divergence. Here we integrate coalescent-based genetic models [3, 4] with ecological-niche modeling [5, 6] to generate expectations for patterns of genetic variation based on an inferred past distribution of a species. Reconstruction of the distribution of a montane grasshopper species during the last glacial maximum suggests that Melanoplus marshalli populations from the sky islands of Colorado and Utah were likely colonized from multiple ancestral source populations. The genetic analyses provide compelling evidence that the historical distribution of M. marshalli-namely, spatial separation of multiple refugia-was conducive to genetic differentiation. The coupling of genetic and ecological-niche modeling provides a new and flexible tool for integrating paleoenvironmental details into species-specific predictions of population structure that can increase our understanding of why the glacial cycles promoted speciation in some taxa and yet inhibited diversification in others [7, 8]. PMID:17475496

  17. Predicted Distribution of Visceral Leishmaniasis Vectors (Diptera: Psychodidae; Phlebotominae) in Iran: A Niche Model Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanafi-Bojd, A A; Rassi, Y; Yaghoobi-Ershadi, M R; Haghdoost, A A; Akhavan, A A; Charrahy, Z; Karimi, A

    2015-12-01

    Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is an important vector-borne disease in Iran. Till now, Leishmania infantum has been detected from five species of sand flies in the country including Phlebotomus kandelakii, Phlebotomus major s.l., Phlebotomus perfiliewi, Phlebotomus alexandri and Phlebotomus tobbi. Also, Phlebotomus keshishiani was found to be infected with Leishmania parasites. This study aimed at predicting the probable niches and distribution of vectors of visceral leishmaniasis in Iran. Data on spatial distribution studies of sand flies were obtained from Iranian database on sand flies. Sample points were included in data from faunistic studies on sand flies conducted during 1995-2013. MaxEnt software was used to predict the appropriate ecological niches for given species, using climatic and topographical data. Distribution maps were prepared and classified in ArcGIS to find main ecological niches of the vectors and hot spots for VL transmission in Iran. Phlebotomus kandelakii, Ph. major s.l. and Ph. alexandri seem to have played a more important role in VL transmission in Iran, so this study focuses on them. Representations of MaxEnt model for probability of distribution of the studied sand flies showed high contribution of climatological and topographical variables to predict the potential distribution of three vector species. Isothermality was found to be an environmental variable with the highest gain when used in isolation for Ph. kandelakii and Ph. major s.l., while for Ph. alexandri, the most effective variable was precipitation of the coldest quarter. The results of this study present the first prediction on distribution of sand fly vectors of VL in Iran. The predicted distributions were matched with the disease-endemic areas in the country, while it was found that there were some unaffected areas with the potential transmission. More comprehensive studies are recommended on the ecology and vector competence of VL vectors in the country. PMID:26032232

  18. Modeling the ecologic niche of plague in sylvan and domestic animal hosts to delineate sources of human exposure in the western United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walsh, Michael; Haseeb, M A

    2015-01-01

    Plague has been established in the western United States (US) since 1900 following the West Coast introduction of commensal rodents infected with Yersinia pestis via early industrial shipping. Over the last century, plague ecology has transitioned through cycles of widespread human transmission, urban domestic transmission among commensal rodents, and ultimately settled into the predominantly sylvan foci that remain today where it is maintained alternatively by enzootic and epizootic transmission. While zoonotic transmission to humans is much less common in modern times, significant plague risk remains in parts of the western US. Moreover, risk to some threatened species that are part of the epizootic cycle can be quite substantive. This investigation attempted to predict the risk of plague across the western US by modeling the ecologic niche of plague in sylvan and domestic animals identified between 2000 and 2015. A Maxent machine learning algorithm was used to predict this niche based on climate, altitude, land cover, and the presence of an important enzootic species, Peromyscus maniculatus. This model demonstrated good predictive ability (AUC = 86%) and identified areas of high risk in central Colorado, north-central New Mexico, and southwestern and northeastern California. The presence of P. maniculatus, altitude, precipitation during the driest and wettest quarters, and distance to artificial surfaces, all contributed substantively to maximizing the gain function. These findings add to the known landscape epidemiology and infection ecology of plague in the western US and may suggest locations of particular risk to be targeted for wild and domestic animal intervention. PMID:26713244

  19. Phylogenetic comparative approaches for studying niche conservatism

    OpenAIRE

    COOPER, NATALIE; Jetz, Walter; Freckleton, Rob P.

    2010-01-01

    Analyses of phylogenetic niche conservatism (PNC) are becoming increasingly common. However, each analysis makes subtly different assumptions about the evolutionary mechanism that generates patterns of niche conservatism. To understand PNC, analyses should be conducted with reference to a clear underlying model, using appropriate methods. Here, we outline five macroevolutionary models that may underlie patterns of PNC (drift, niche retention, phylogenetic inertia, niche filling ? shifti...

  20. Ecological Niche Modeling of Risk Factors for H7N9 Human Infection in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Min Xu

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available China was attacked by a serious influenza A (H7N9 virus in 2013. The first human infection case was confirmed in Shanghai City and soon spread across most of eastern China. Using the methods of Geographic Information Systems (GIS and ecological niche modeling (ENM, this research quantitatively analyzed the relationships between the H7N9 occurrence and the main environmental factors, including meteorological variables, human population density, bird migratory routes, wetland distribution, and live poultry farms, markets, and processing factories. Based on these relationships the probability of the presence of H7N9 was predicted. Results indicated that the distribution of live poultry processing factories, farms, and human population density were the top three most important determinants of the H7N9 human infection. The relative contributions to the model of live poultry processing factories, farms and human population density were 39.9%, 17.7% and 17.7%, respectively, while the maximum temperature of the warmest month and mean relative humidity had nearly no contribution to the model. The paper has developed an ecological niche model (ENM that predicts the spatial distribution of H7N9 cases in China using environmental variables. The area under the curve (AUC values of the model were greater than 0.9 (0.992 for the training samples and 0.961 for the test data. The findings indicated that most of the high risk areas were distributed in the Yangtze River Delta. These findings have important significance for the Chinese government to enhance the environmental surveillance at multiple human poultry interfaces in the high risk area.

  1. Ecological Niche Modeling of Risk Factors for H7N9 Human Infection in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Min; Cao, Chunxiang; Li, Qun; Jia, Peng; Zhao, Jian

    2016-01-01

    China was attacked by a serious influenza A (H7N9) virus in 2013. The first human infection case was confirmed in Shanghai City and soon spread across most of eastern China. Using the methods of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and ecological niche modeling (ENM), this research quantitatively analyzed the relationships between the H7N9 occurrence and the main environmental factors, including meteorological variables, human population density, bird migratory routes, wetland distribution, and live poultry farms, markets, and processing factories. Based on these relationships the probability of the presence of H7N9 was predicted. Results indicated that the distribution of live poultry processing factories, farms, and human population density were the top three most important determinants of the H7N9 human infection. The relative contributions to the model of live poultry processing factories, farms and human population density were 39.9%, 17.7% and 17.7%, respectively, while the maximum temperature of the warmest month and mean relative humidity had nearly no contribution to the model. The paper has developed an ecological niche model (ENM) that predicts the spatial distribution of H7N9 cases in China using environmental variables. The area under the curve (AUC) values of the model were greater than 0.9 (0.992 for the training samples and 0.961 for the test data). The findings indicated that most of the high risk areas were distributed in the Yangtze River Delta. These findings have important significance for the Chinese government to enhance the environmental surveillance at multiple human poultry interfaces in the high risk area. PMID:27322296

  2. Time-specific ecological niche modeling predicts spatial dynamics of vector insects and human dengue cases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peterson, A Townsend; Martínez-Campos, Carmen; Nakazawa, Yoshinori; Martínez-Meyer, Enrique

    2005-09-01

    Numerous human diseases-malaria, dengue, yellow fever and leishmaniasis, to name a few-are transmitted by insect vectors with brief life cycles and biting activity that varies in both space and time. Although the general geographic distributions of these epidemiologically important species are known, the spatiotemporal variation in their emergence and activity remains poorly understood. We used ecological niche modeling via a genetic algorithm to produce time-specific predictive models of monthly distributions of Aedes aegypti in Mexico in 1995. Significant predictions of monthly mosquito activity and distributions indicate that predicting spatiotemporal dynamics of disease vector species is feasible; significant coincidence with human cases of dengue indicate that these dynamics probably translate directly into transmission of dengue virus to humans. This approach provides new potential for optimizing use of resources for disease prevention and remediation via automated forecasting of disease transmission risk. PMID:15979656

  3. Assessing the potential for establishment of western cherry fruit fly using ecological niche modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, Sunil; Neven, Lisa G; Yee, Wee L

    2014-06-01

    Sweet cherries, Prunus avium (L.) L., grown in the western United States are exported to many countries around the world. Some of these countries have enforced strict quarantine rules and trade restrictions owing to concerns about the potential establishment and subsequent spread of western cherry fruit fly, Rhagoletis indifferens Curran (Diptera: Tephritidae), a major quarantine pest of sweet cherry. We used 1) niche models (CLIMEX and MaxEnt) to map the climatic suitability, 2) North Carolina State University-Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service Plant Pest Forecasting System to examine chilling requirement, and 3) host distribution and availability to assess the potential for establishment of R. indifferens in areas of western North America where it currently does not exist and eight current or potential fresh sweet cherry markets: Colombia, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Taiwan, Thailand, Venezuela, and Vietnam. Results from niche models conformed well to the current distribution of R. indifferens in western North America. MaxEnt and CLIMEX models had high performance and predicted climatic suitability in some of the countries (e.g., Andean range in Colombia and Venezuela, northern and northeastern India, central Taiwan, and parts of Vietnam). However, our results showed no potential for establishment of R. indifferens in Colombia, Indonesia, Malaysia, Taiwan, Thailand, Venezuela, and Vietnam when the optimal chilling requirement to break diapause (minimum temperature < or = 3 degree C for at least 15 wk) was used as the criterion for whether establishment can occur. Furthermore, these countries have no host plant species available for R. indifferens. Our results can be used to make scientifically informed international trade decisions and negotiations by policy makers. PMID:25026662

  4. Ecological Niche Modeling of main reservoir hosts of zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis in Iran.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gholamrezaei, Mostafa; Mohebali, Mehdi; Hanafi-Bojd, Ahmad Ali; Sedaghat, Mohammad Mehdi; Shirzadi, Mohammad Reza

    2016-08-01

    Zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis (ZCL), caused by Leishmania major, is a common zoonotic vector-borne disease in Iran. Close contact with infected reservoir hosts increases the probability of transmission of Leishmania parasite infections to susceptible humans. Four gerbil species (Rodentia: Gerbillidae) serve as the main reservoir hosts for ZCL in different endemic foci of Iran. These species include Rhombomys opimus, Meriones libycus, Meriones hurrianae and Tatera indica; while notable infection has been reported in Nesokia indica as well. The purpose of this study is to model the distribution of these reservoirs to identify the risk areas of ZCL. A data bank was developed including all published data during the period of 1970-2015. Maximum entropy model was used to find the most appropriate ecological niches for each species. The areas under curve obtained were 0.961, 0.927, 0.922, 0.997 and 0.899, instead of 1, for training test in R. opimus, M. libycus, T. indica, M. hurrianae and N. indica, respectively. The environmental variable with the highest gain when used in isolation was slope for R. opimus and N. indica, annual mean temperature for M. libycus, and seasonal precipitation for T. indica and M. hurrianae. Summation of presence probabilities for three main species, i.e., R. opimus, M. libycus and T. indica revealed favorable ecological niches in wide areas of 16 provinces. This is the first study to predict the distribution of ZCL reservoir hosts in Iran. Climatology and topography variables had high contributions toward the prediction of potential distribution of the main reservoir species; therefore, as climate changes, the models should be updated periodically with novel data, and the results should be used in disease-monitoring programs. PMID:27150212

  5. Modelling Niche Differentiation of Co-Existing, Elusive and Morphologically Similar Species: A Case Study of Four Macaque Species in Nakai-Nam Theun National Protected Area, Laos

    OpenAIRE

    Camille N. Z. Coudrat; K. Anne-Isola Nekaris

    2013-01-01

    Simple Summary We investigated the niche separation of four macaque species (Macaca arctoides, M. assamensis, M. leonina, M. mulatta) occurring within Nakai-Nam Theun National Protected Area, central-eastern Laos using the environmental niche modelling software MaxEnt. The respective suitable habitat predicted for each species reveals niche segregation between the four species with a gradual geographical distribution following an environmental gradient of, notably, temperature, precipitation,...

  6. Estimating niche width using stable isotopes in the face of habitat variability: a modelling case study in the marine environment.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David O Cummings

    Full Text Available Distributions of stable isotopes have been used to infer an organism's trophic niche width, the 'isotopic niche', and examine resource partitioning. Spatial variation in the isotopic composition of prey may however confound the interpretation of isotopic signatures especially when foragers exploit resources across numerous locations. In this study the isotopic compositions from marine assemblages are modelled to determine the role of variation in the signature of prey items and the effect of dietary breadth and foraging strategies on predator signatures. Outputs from the models reveal that isotopic niche widths can be greater for populations of dietary specialists rather than for generalists, which contravenes what is generally accepted in the literature. When a range of different mixing models are applied to determine if the conversion from δ to p-space can be used to improve model accuracy, predator signature variation is increased rather than model precision. Furthermore the mixing models applied failed to correctly identify dietary specialists and/or to accurately estimate diet contributions that may identify resource partitioning. The results presented illustrate the need to collect sufficiently large sample sizes, in excess of what is collected under most current studies, across the complete distribution of a species and its prey, before attempts to use stable isotopes to make inferences about niche width can be made.

  7. Estimating niche width using stable isotopes in the face of habitat variability: a modelling case study in the marine environment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cummings, David O; Buhl, Jerome; Lee, Raymond W; Simpson, Stephen J; Holmes, Sebastian P

    2012-01-01

    Distributions of stable isotopes have been used to infer an organism's trophic niche width, the 'isotopic niche', and examine resource partitioning. Spatial variation in the isotopic composition of prey may however confound the interpretation of isotopic signatures especially when foragers exploit resources across numerous locations. In this study the isotopic compositions from marine assemblages are modelled to determine the role of variation in the signature of prey items and the effect of dietary breadth and foraging strategies on predator signatures. Outputs from the models reveal that isotopic niche widths can be greater for populations of dietary specialists rather than for generalists, which contravenes what is generally accepted in the literature. When a range of different mixing models are applied to determine if the conversion from δ to p-space can be used to improve model accuracy, predator signature variation is increased rather than model precision. Furthermore the mixing models applied failed to correctly identify dietary specialists and/or to accurately estimate diet contributions that may identify resource partitioning. The results presented illustrate the need to collect sufficiently large sample sizes, in excess of what is collected under most current studies, across the complete distribution of a species and its prey, before attempts to use stable isotopes to make inferences about niche width can be made. PMID:22876280

  8. Modelling species invasions using thermal and trophic niche dynamics under climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simone eLibralato

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Changing marine temperatures modify the distributional ranges of natural populations, but the success of invasion of new areas depends on local physical and ecological conditions. We explore the invasion by thermophilic species and their ecosystem effects by simulating a sea surface temperature increase using a trophodynamic model for the northern Adriatic Sea (NAS, in which thermal and trophic niches are explicitly represented for each thermophilic non-indigenous species and native species. The NAS acts as a cul-de-sac for local species, preventing a further poleward migration as a response to temperature rise. In this situation, model results showed that effects of warming and invasion produced complex, non-linear changes on biomasses but never resulted in a complete overturn of a group of native species and/or a bloom of invasive ones. Despite this, the diversity index stabilizes at increased values after simulating invasion, possibly indicating that in such enclosed systems the establishment of invasive species could represent enrichment in ecosystem structure. In addition, the absence of complete species substitution clearly showed the contribution of resident species towards increasing the resilience, i.e. the capability of the system to cope with invasion without changing substantially. Contrasting scenarios highlighted that changes in ecosystem primary production and species adaptation had secondary effects in ecosystem structure, while results for scenarios with different exploitation levels indicated that fishing can destabilize community structure in these change contexts, e.g. reducing community resilience. The results confirmed the importance of an ecological niche approach to analyze possible effects of invasion and highlighted the complexity of dynamics linked to temperature-driven species invasion’, in terms of both the predicted strength of impacts and the direction of biomass change.

  9. Pitch the niche - taking responsibility for the concepts we use in ecology and species distribution modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    McInerny, Greg J.; Etienne, Rampal S.

    2012-01-01

    In a discussion it is often easier to staunchly reject or offer resolute support for an idea. This third paper on the niche concept aims to develop a balanced argument by exploring general principles for determining an appropriate level for pitching the niche concept that will guide better use and l

  10. Using niche-based modelling to assess the impact of climate change on tree functional diversity in Europe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thuiller, Wilfried; Lavorel, Sandra; Sykes, Martin T.;

    2006-01-01

    Rapid anthropogenic climate change is already affecting species distributions and ecosystem functioning worldwide. We applied niche-based models to analyse the impact of climate change on tree species and functional diversity in Europe. Present-day climate was used to predict the distributions...

  11. The use of ecological niche modeling to infer potential risk areas of snakebite in the Mexican state of Veracruz.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos Yañez-Arenas

    Full Text Available Many authors have claimed that snakebite risk is associated with human population density, human activities, and snake behavior. Here we analyzed whether environmental suitability of vipers can be used as an indicator of snakebite risk. We tested several hypotheses to explain snakebite incidence, through the construction of models incorporating both environmental suitability and socioeconomic variables in Veracruz, Mexico.Ecological niche modeling (ENM was used to estimate potential geographic and ecological distributions of nine viper species' in Veracruz. We calculated the distance to the species' niche centroid (DNC; this distance may be associated with a prediction of abundance. We found significant inverse relationships between snakebites and DNCs of common vipers (Crotalus simus and Bothrops asper, explaining respectively 15% and almost 35% of variation in snakebite incidence. Additionally, DNCs for these two vipers, in combination with marginalization of human populations, accounted for 76% of variation in incidence.Our results suggest that niche modeling and niche-centroid distance approaches can be used to mapping distributions of environmental suitability for venomous snakes; combining this ecological information with socioeconomic factors may help with inferring potential risk areas for snakebites, since hospital data are often biased (especially when incidences are low.

  12. A comparison of two global optimization algorithms with sequential niche technique for structural model updating

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shabbir, Faisal; Omenzetter, Piotr

    2014-04-01

    Much effort is devoted nowadays to derive accurate finite element (FE) models to be used for structural health monitoring, damage detection and assessment. However, formation of a FE model representative of the original structure is a difficult task. Model updating is a branch of optimization which calibrates the FE model by comparing the modal properties of the actual structure with these of the FE predictions. As the number of experimental measurements is usually much smaller than the number of uncertain parameters, and, consequently, not all uncertain parameters are selected for model updating, different local minima may exist in the solution space. Experimental noise further exacerbates the problem. The attainment of a global solution in a multi-dimensional search space is a challenging problem. Global optimization algorithms (GOAs) have received interest in the previous decade to solve this problem, but no GOA can ensure the detection of the global minimum either. To counter this problem, a combination of GOA with sequential niche technique (SNT) has been proposed in this research which systematically searches the whole solution space. A dynamically tested full scale pedestrian bridge is taken as a case study. Two different GOAs, namely particle swarm optimization (PSO) and genetic algorithm (GA), are investigated in combination with SNT. The results of these GOA are compared in terms of their efficiency in detecting global minima. The systematic search enables to find different solutions in the search space, thus increasing the confidence of finding the global minimum.

  13. Monterey, California Tsunami Forecast Grids for MOST Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Monterey, California Forecast Model Grids provides bathymetric data strictly for tsunami inundation modeling with the Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST) model....

  14. San Diego, California Tsunami Forecast Grids for MOST Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The San Diego, California Forecast Model Grids provides bathymetric data strictly for tsunami inundation modeling with the Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST) model....

  15. PREDICTIONS IN AN INVADED WORLD - PART II: USING NICHE MODELS TO PREDICT DISTRIBUTIONS OF MARINE/ESTUARINE SPECIES AT THE ESTUARY SCALE

    Science.gov (United States)

    To better understand the potential geographical distributions of nonindigenous species (NIS), we are evaluating the ability of niche models to predict the presence of existing native and NIS species within individual estuaries based on landscape characteristics. One model being ...

  16. A tale of four "carp": invasion potential and ecological niche modeling.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shannon C DeVaney

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Invasive species are a serious problem in ecosystems, but are difficult to eradicate once established. Predictive methods can be key in determining which areas are of concern regarding invasion by such species to prevent establishment [1]. We assessed the geographic potential of four Eurasian cyprinid fishes (common carp, tench, grass carp, black carp as invaders in North America via ecological niche modeling (ENM. These "carp" represent four stages of invasion of the continent (a long-established invader with a wide distribution, a long-established invader with a limited distribution, a spreading invader whose distribution is expanding, and a newly introduced potential invader that is not yet established, and as such illustrate the progressive reduction of distributional disequilibrium over the history of species' invasions. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We used ENM to estimate the potential distributional area for each species in North America using models based on native range distribution data. Environmental data layers for native and introduced ranges were imported from state, national, and international climate and environmental databases. Models were evaluated using independent validation data on native and invaded areas. We calculated omission error for the independent validation data for each species: all native range tests were highly successful (all omission values <7%; invaded-range predictions were predictive for common and grass carp (omission values 8.8 and 19.8%, respectively. Model omission was high for introduced tench populations (54.7%, but the model correctly identified some areas where the species has been successful; distributional predictions for black carp show that large portions of eastern North America are at risk. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: ENMs predicted potential ranges of carp species accurately even in regions where the species have not been present until recently. ENM can forecast species' potential

  17. Tomb niche

    OpenAIRE

    O'Donovan, Danielle

    2004-01-01

    Capital frieze running along jamb of tomb niche. Moulding from the top down comprises: chamfer, frontal fillet, angle-fillet, fillet, angle-fillet, flat surface, angle-fillet, fillet, flat surface. The lower secion can be read as a stepped rebate.

  18. Modeling electricity loads in California: ARMA models with hyperbolic noise

    OpenAIRE

    Joanna Nowicka-Zagrajek; Rafal Weron

    2001-01-01

    In this paper we address the issue of modeling and forecasting electricity loads. We apply a two-step procedure to a series of system-wide loads from the California power market. First, we remove the weekly and annual seasonalities. Then, after analyzing properties of the deseasonalized data we fit an autoregressive moving average model. The obtained residuals seem to be independent but with tails heavier than Gaussian. It turns out that the hyperbolic distribution provides an excellent fit. ...

  19. Geographic Distribution of Chagas Disease Vectors in Brazil Based on Ecological Niche Modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rodrigo Gurgel-Gonçalves

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Although Brazil was declared free from Chagas disease transmission by the domestic vector Triatoma infestans, human acute cases are still being registered based on transmission by native triatomine species. For a better understanding of transmission risk, the geographic distribution of Brazilian triatomines was analyzed. Sixteen out of 62 Brazilian species that both occur in >20 municipalities and present synanthropic tendencies were modeled based on their ecological niches. Panstrongylus geniculatus and P. megistus showed broad ecological ranges, but most of the species sort out by the biome in which they are distributed: Rhodnius pictipes and R. robustus in the Amazon; R. neglectus, Triatoma sordida, and T. costalimai in the Cerrado; R. nasutus, P. lutzi, T. brasiliensis, T. pseudomaculata, T. melanocephala, and T. petrocchiae in the Caatinga; T. rubrovaria in the southern pampas; T. tibiamaculata and T. vitticeps in the Atlantic Forest. Although most occurrences were recorded in open areas (Cerrado and Caatinga, our results show that all environmental conditions in the country are favorable to one or more of the species analyzed, such that almost nowhere is Chagas transmission risk negligible.

  20. Tracking a medically important spider: climate change, ecological niche modeling, and the brown recluse (Loxosceles reclusa).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saupe, Erin E; Papes, Monica; Selden, Paul A; Vetter, Richard S

    2011-01-01

    Most spiders use venom to paralyze their prey and are commonly feared for their potential to cause injury to humans. In North America, one species in particular, Loxosceles reclusa (brown recluse spider, Sicariidae), causes the majority of necrotic wounds induced by the Araneae. However, its distributional limitations are poorly understood and, as a result, medical professionals routinely misdiagnose brown recluse bites outside endemic areas, confusing putative spider bites for other serious conditions. To address the issue of brown recluse distribution, we employ ecological niche modeling to investigate the present and future distributional potential of this species. We delineate range boundaries and demonstrate that under future climate change scenarios, the spider's distribution may expand northward, invading previously unaffected regions of the USA. At present, the spider's range is centered in the USA, from Kansas east to Kentucky and from southern Iowa south to Louisiana. Newly influenced areas may include parts of Nebraska, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, South Dakota, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. These results illustrate a potential negative consequence of climate change on humans and will aid medical professionals in proper bite identification/treatment, potentially reducing bite misdiagnoses. PMID:21464985

  1. Tracking a medically important spider: climate change, ecological niche modeling, and the brown recluse (Loxosceles reclusa.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erin E Saupe

    Full Text Available Most spiders use venom to paralyze their prey and are commonly feared for their potential to cause injury to humans. In North America, one species in particular, Loxosceles reclusa (brown recluse spider, Sicariidae, causes the majority of necrotic wounds induced by the Araneae. However, its distributional limitations are poorly understood and, as a result, medical professionals routinely misdiagnose brown recluse bites outside endemic areas, confusing putative spider bites for other serious conditions. To address the issue of brown recluse distribution, we employ ecological niche modeling to investigate the present and future distributional potential of this species. We delineate range boundaries and demonstrate that under future climate change scenarios, the spider's distribution may expand northward, invading previously unaffected regions of the USA. At present, the spider's range is centered in the USA, from Kansas east to Kentucky and from southern Iowa south to Louisiana. Newly influenced areas may include parts of Nebraska, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, South Dakota, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. These results illustrate a potential negative consequence of climate change on humans and will aid medical professionals in proper bite identification/treatment, potentially reducing bite misdiagnoses.

  2. Evolutionary responses to a constructed niche: ancient Mesoamericans as a model of gene-culture coevolution.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tábita Hünemeier

    Full Text Available Culture and genetics rely on two distinct but not isolated transmission systems. Cultural processes may change the human selective environment and thereby affect which individuals survive and reproduce. Here, we evaluated whether the modes of subsistence in Native American populations and the frequencies of the ABCA1*Arg230Cys polymorphism were correlated. Further, we examined whether the evolutionary consequences of the agriculturally constructed niche in Mesoamerica could be considered as a gene-culture coevolution model. For this purpose, we genotyped 229 individuals affiliated with 19 Native American populations and added data for 41 other Native American groups (n = 1905 to the analysis. In combination with the SNP cluster of a neutral region, this dataset was then used to unravel the scenario involved in 230Cys evolutionary history. The estimated age of 230Cys is compatible with its origin occurring in the American continent. The correlation of its frequencies with the archeological data on Zea pollen in Mesoamerica/Central America, the neutral coalescent simulations, and the F(ST-based natural selection analysis suggest that maize domestication was the driving force in the increase in the frequencies of 230Cys in this region. These results may represent the first example of a gene-culture coevolution involving an autochthonous American allele.

  3. Quercus suber range dynamics by ecological niche modelling: from the Last Interglacial to present time

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vessella, Federico; Simeone, Marco Cosimo; Schirone, Bartolomeo

    2015-07-01

    Ecological Niche Modelling (ENM) is widely used to depict species potential occurrence according to environmental variables under different climatic scenarios. We tested the ENM approach to infer past range dynamics of cork oak, a keystone species of the Mediterranean Biome, from 130 ka to the present time. Hindcasting implications would deal with a better species risk assessment and conservation management for the future. We modelled present and past occurrence of cork oak using seven ENM algorithms, starting from 63,733 spatially unique presence points at 30 arc-second resolution. Fourteen environmental variables were used and four time slices were considered (Last Interglacial, Last Glacial Maximum, mid-Holocene and present time). A threshold-independent evaluation of the goodness-of-fit of the models was evaluated by means of ROC curve and fossil or historical evidences were used to validate the results. Four weighted average maps depicted the dynamics of area suitability for cork oak in the last 130 ka. The derived species autoecology allowed its long-term occurrence in the Mediterranean without striking range reduction or shifting. Fossil and historical post-processing validation support the modelled past spatial extension and a neglected species presence at Levantine until the recent time. Despite the severe climatic oscillation since the Last Glacial Maximum, cork oak potential distribution area experienced limited range changes, confirming its strong link with the Mediterranean Basin. The ecological amplitude of Quercus suber could be therefore adopted as a reference to trace the Mediterranean bioclimate area. A better knowledge of the past events of Mediterranean vegetation, a wider range of study species and environmental determinants are essential to inform us about its current state, its sensitivity to human impact and the potential responses to future changes.

  4. Crescent City, California Tsunami Forecast Grids for MOST Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Crescent City, California Forecast Model Grids provides bathymetric data strictly for tsunami inundation modeling with the Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST)...

  5. Santa Barbara, California Tsunami Forecast Grids for MOST Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Santa Barbara, California Forecast Model Grids provides bathymetric data strictly for tsunami inundation modeling with the Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST)...

  6. Arena Cove, California Tsunami Forecast Grids for MOST Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Arena Cove, California Forecast Grids provides bathymetric data strictly for tsunami inundation modeling with the Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST) model. MOST...

  7. Santa Monica, California Tsunami Forecast Grids for MOST Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Santa Monica, California Forecast Model Grids provides bathymetric data strictly for tsunami inundation modeling with the Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST)...

  8. Port San Luis, California Tsunami Forecast Grids for MOST Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Port San Luis, California Forecast Model Grids provides bathymetric data strictly for tsunami inundation modeling with the Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST)...

  9. Eureka, California Tsunami Forecast Grids for MOST Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Eureka, California Forecast Grids provides bathymetric data strictly for tsunami inundation modeling with the Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST) model. MOST is...

  10. San Francisco, California Tsunami Forecast Grids for MOST Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The San Francisco, California Forecast Model Grids provides bathymetric data strictly for tsunami inundation modeling with the Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST)...

  11. Point Reyes, California Tsunami Forecast Grids for MOST Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Point Reyes, California Forecast Model Grids provides bathymetric data strictly for tsunami inundation modeling with the Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST)...

  12. Los Angeles, California Tsunami Forecast Grids for MOST Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Los Angeles, California Forecast Model Grids provides bathymetric data strictly for tsunami inundation modeling with the Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST)...

  13. Predicting the current and future potential distributions of lymphatic filariasis in Africa using maximum entropy ecological niche modelling.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hannah Slater

    Full Text Available Modelling the spatial distributions of human parasite species is crucial to understanding the environmental determinants of infection as well as for guiding the planning of control programmes. Here, we use ecological niche modelling to map the current potential distribution of the macroparasitic disease, lymphatic filariasis (LF, in Africa, and to estimate how future changes in climate and population could affect its spread and burden across the continent. We used 508 community-specific infection presence data collated from the published literature in conjunction with five predictive environmental/climatic and demographic variables, and a maximum entropy niche modelling method to construct the first ecological niche maps describing potential distribution and burden of LF in Africa. We also ran the best-fit model against climate projections made by the HADCM3 and CCCMA models for 2050 under A2a and B2a scenarios to simulate the likely distribution of LF under future climate and population changes. We predict a broad geographic distribution of LF in Africa extending from the west to the east across the middle region of the continent, with high probabilities of occurrence in the Western Africa compared to large areas of medium probability interspersed with smaller areas of high probability in Central and Eastern Africa and in Madagascar. We uncovered complex relationships between predictor ecological niche variables and the probability of LF occurrence. We show for the first time that predicted climate change and population growth will expand both the range and risk of LF infection (and ultimately disease in an endemic region. We estimate that populations at risk to LF may range from 543 and 804 million currently, and that this could rise to between 1.65 to 1.86 billion in the future depending on the climate scenario used and thresholds applied to signify infection presence.

  14. AB 1725 Model Accountability System. California Community Colleges. Revised.

    Science.gov (United States)

    California Community Colleges, Sacramento. Board of Governors.

    This report proposes a model accountability system for the California community colleges to comply with the directives of Assembly Bill 1725 (AB 1725). The purpose of the accountability system is to provide colleges and districts, the board of governors, and the California legislature with information that will allow for the continued improvement…

  15. Land Suitability Modeling using a Geographic Socio-Environmental Niche-Based Approach: A Case Study from Northeastern Thailand

    OpenAIRE

    Heumann, Benjamin W.; Walsh, Stephen J.; Verdery, Ashton M.; McDaniel, Phillip M.; Rindfuss, Ronald R.

    2012-01-01

    Understanding the pattern-process relations of land use/land cover change is an important area of research that provides key insights into human-environment interactions. The suitability or likelihood of occurrence of land use such as agricultural crop types across a human-managed landscape is a central consideration. Recent advances in niche-based, geographic species distribution modeling (SDM) offer a novel approach to understanding land suitability and land use decisions. SDM links species...

  16. A niche for neutrality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adler, Peter B; Hillerislambers, Janneke; Levine, Jonathan M

    2007-02-01

    Ecologists now recognize that controversy over the relative importance of niches and neutrality cannot be resolved by analyzing species abundance patterns. Here, we use classical coexistence theory to reframe the debate in terms of stabilizing mechanisms (niches) and fitness equivalence (neutrality). The neutral model is a special case where stabilizing mechanisms are absent and species have equivalent fitness. Instead of asking whether niches or neutral processes structure communities, we advocate determining the degree to which observed diversity reflects strong stabilizing mechanisms overcoming large fitness differences or weak stabilization operating on species of similar fitness. To answer this question, we propose combining data on per capita growth rates with models to: (i) quantify the strength of stabilizing processes; (ii) quantify fitness inequality and compare it with stabilization; and (iii) manipulate frequency dependence in growth to test the consequences of stabilization and fitness equivalence for coexistence. PMID:17257097

  17. Ecological niche modelling and nDNA sequencing support a new, morphologically cryptic beetle species unveiled by DNA barcoding.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oliver Hawlitschek

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: DNA sequencing techniques used to estimate biodiversity, such as DNA barcoding, may reveal cryptic species. However, disagreements between barcoding and morphological data have already led to controversy. Species delimitation should therefore not be based on mtDNA alone. Here, we explore the use of nDNA and bioclimatic modelling in a new species of aquatic beetle revealed by mtDNA sequence data. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The aquatic beetle fauna of Australia is characterised by high degrees of endemism, including local radiations such as the genus Antiporus. Antiporus femoralis was previously considered to exist in two disjunct, but morphologically indistinguishable populations in south-western and south-eastern Australia. We constructed a phylogeny of Antiporus and detected a deep split between these populations. Diagnostic characters from the highly variable nuclear protein encoding arginine kinase gene confirmed the presence of two isolated populations. We then used ecological niche modelling to examine the climatic niche characteristics of the two populations. All results support the status of the two populations as distinct species. We describe the south-western species as Antiporus occidentalis sp.n. CONCLUSION/SIGNIFICANCE: In addition to nDNA sequence data and extended use of mitochondrial sequences, ecological niche modelling has great potential for delineating morphologically cryptic species.

  18. Climate, niche, ticks, and models: what they are and how we should interpret them.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Estrada-Peña, Agustín

    2008-12-01

    Ticks spend most of their life cycle in the environment, and all tick life cycle stages are dependent on a complex combination of climate variables. Furthermore, host availability and vegetation significantly modulate the dynamics of tick populations. Tick recruitment is dependent on successful reproduction, which in turn requires sufficient adult tick densities, available blood meal sources, and egg survival. Though many animals can serve as hosts, there are several determinants of host suitability. For example, host availability in time and space is an important determinant of tick bionomics. Shelter and protection from environmental extremes are critical to tick survival. Questing and diapausing ticks are vulnerable to extremes of temperature and humidity. There are concerns about how predicted climate change may alter several critical features of host-parasite relationships of ticks, the potential for invasion of new areas or alteration of patterns of pathogen transmission in particular. However, modeling approaches that relate known occurrences of tick species to climate (and/or landscape) features and predict geographic occurrences are not completely fulfilling our needs to understand how the "tick panorama" can change as a consequence of these climate trends. This is a short review about the concept of ecological niche as applied to ticks, as well as some raised concerns about its evaluation and strict definition, and its usefulness to map geographical suitability for ticks. Comments about how climate, hosts, and landscape configuration are briefly discussed regarding its applicability to tick mapping and with reference about their impact on tick abundance. I will further comment on already published observations about observed changes in the geographical range of ticks in parts of Europe. PMID:19030890

  19. Explanative power of variables used in species distribution modelling: an issue of general model transferability or niche shift in the invasive Greenhouse frog ( Eleutherodactylus planirostris)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rödder, Dennis; Lötters, Stefan

    2010-09-01

    The use of species distribution models (SDMs) to predict potential distributions of species is steadily increasing. A necessary assumption when projecting models throughout space or time is that climatic niches are conservative, but recent findings of niche shifts during biological invasion of particular plant and animal species have indicated that this assumption is not categorically valid. One reason for observed shifts may relate to variable selection for modelling. In this study, we assess differences in climatic niches in the native and invasive ranges of the Greenhouse frog ( Eleutherodactylus planirostris). We analyze which variables are more ‘conserved’ in comparison to more ‘relaxed’ variables (i.e. subject to niche shift) and how they influence transferability of SDMs developed with Maxent on the basis of ten bioclimatic layers best describing the climatic requirements of the target species. We focus on degrees of niche similarity and conservatism using Schoener's index and Hellinger distance. Significance of results are tested with null models. Results indicate that the degrees of niche similarity and conservatism vary greatly among the predictive variables. Some shifts can be attributed to active habitat selection, whereas others apparently reflect variation in the availability of climate conditions or biotic interactions between the frogs' native and invasive ranges. Patterns suggesting active habitat selection also vary among variables. Our findings evoke considerable implications on the transferability of SDMs over space and time, which is strongly affected by the choice and number of predictors. The incorporation of ‘relaxed’ predictors not or only indirectly correlated with biologically meaningful predictors may lead to erroneous predictions when projecting SDMs. We recommend thorough assessments of invasive species' ecology for the identification biologically meaningful predictors facilitating transferability.

  20. California Basin Characterization Model Downscaled Climate and Hydrology

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — The California Basin Characterization Model (CA-BCM 2014) dataset provides historical and projected climate and hydrologic surfaces for the region that encompasses...

  1. The distribution, dominance patterns and ecological niches of plankton functional types in Dynamic Green Ocean Models and satellite estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vogt, M.; Hashioka, T.; Payne, M. R.; Buitenhuis, E. T.; Le Quéré, C.; Alvain, S.; Aita, M. N.; Bopp, L.; Doney, S. C.; Hirata, T.; Lima, I.; Sailley, S.; Yamanaka, Y.

    2013-11-01

    We compare the spatial and temporal representation of phytoplankton functional types (pPFTs) in four different Dynamic Green Ocean Models (DGOMs; CCSM-BEC, NEMURO, PISCES and PlankTOM5) to derived phytoplankton distributions from two independent satellite estimates, with a particular focus on diatom distributions. Global annual mean surface biomass estimates for diatoms vary between 0.23 mmol C m-3 and 0.77 mmol C m-3 in the models, and are comparable to a satellite-derived estimate (0.41 mmol C m-3). All models consistently simulate a higher zonal mean diatom biomass contribution in the high latitudes than in the low latitudes, but the relative diatom contribution varies substantially between models with largest differences in the high latitudes (20% to 100% of total biomass). We investigate phytoplankton distribution in terms of annual and monthly mean dominance patterns, i.e. the distribution of locations where a given PFT contributes more than 50% to total biomass. In all models, diatoms tend to dominate large areas of the high latitudes of both hemispheres, and the area of the surface ocean dominated by diatoms is significantly higher in the models than in the satellite estimates. We estimate the realized ecological niches filled by the dominant pPFT at each location as a function of annual mean surface nitrate concentration (NO3), sea surface temperature (SST), and mixed layer depth. A general additive model (GAM) is used to map the probability of dominance of all pPFTs in niche and geographic space. Models tend to simulate diatom dominance over a wider temperature and nutrient range, whereas satellites confine diatom dominance to a narrower niche of low-intermediate annual mean temperatures (annual mean SST niches in different ranges of surface NO3 concentrations. For annual mean diatom dominance, the statistically modelled probability of dominance explains the majority of the variance in the data (65.2-66.6%). For the satellite estimates, the explained

  2. Using kernels and ecological niche modeling to delineate conservation areas in an endangered patch-breeding phenotype.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Denoël, Mathieu; Ficetola, Gentile Francesco

    2015-10-01

    Efficient delineation of conservation areas is a great challenge in maintaining biodiversity. Kernel density estimators (KDEs) are a powerful tool in this perspective, but they have not been applied at the population level on patch-distributed organisms. This would be particularly worthy for species that need broad habitats beyond those where they can be sampled; such as terrestrial lands for pond-breeding amphibians. The aim of this study was to compare different approaches for the identification of suitable areas for conservation: KDE, ecological niche modelling, and a combination of KDE and niche models. Paedomorphosis was chosen as a model system because this is an important form of intraspecific variation that is present in numerous taxa, but geographically localized within species and globally endangered. 277 ponds were sampled in one of the hotspots of paedomorphosis to determine the abundance and distribution of paedomorphs (i.e., individuals retaining gills at the adult stage) of the palmate newt (Lissotriton helveticus), with emphasis on the connections between the most valuable populations. KDEs gave insights into the surface areas required to balance the maintenance of certain number of connected ponds and the respective number of disjoint areas in which the whole population is divided. The inclusion of barriers in the models helped in accurately designing the limits of the areas to protect. Alone, habitat models were not able to successfully delineate the area to protect, but the integration between terrestrial suitable areas or barriers and KDE allowed an objective identification of areas required for conservation. Overall, the best performance was observed by the KDE integrating ecological barriers, and by the combination between KDE and niche modelling. In a broader perspective, KDEs are thus a pertinent tool in providing quantitative spatial measurements to delineate conservation areas based on patch-abundance data with a specific focus to

  3. Using ecological-niche modeling as a conservation tool for freshwater species: live-bearing fishes in central Mexico.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Domínguez-Domínguez, Omar; Martínez-Meyer, Enrique; Zambrano, Luis; De León, Gerardo Pérez-Ponce

    2006-12-01

    Ecological-niche modeling is an important tool for conservation assessment of terrestrial species; however, its applicability has been poorly explored in the aquatic realm. Goodeines are a monophyletic group of viviparous freshwater fishes that are well known in central Mexico, with 41 species in 19 genera. Given the number of threats to biodiversity in the region, goodeines represent an excellent model with which to test novel conservation approaches. We assessed the conservation status of the goodeines (37 species), based on their potential distributions predicted by ecological-niche models generated with the genetic algorithm for rule-set prediction (GARP). Predictions of species' distributions performed well in six out of eight species for which sufficient information was available to perform estimations of the area under the curve (AUC) in receiver operating characteristic plots. Extensive field surveys conducted in recent years in most cases confirm the models' predictions. Species richness exhibited a nested pattern, in which the number of species increased toward the center of the distribution of the group. At the basin level, the Río Ameca Basin had the highest number of species (11), chiefly because of the high number of microendemic species (6). Human activities within water bodies (e.g., extensive aquaculture) and drainages (e.g., agriculture, ranching, industrial activities) have affected most goodeines severely, given the deleterious effects of pollution and introductions of exotic species, such as carp (Cyprinus carpio, Ctenopharingodon idella) and tilapia (Oreochromis spp.). Our results paint a pessimistic picture for the long-term survival of many goodeines in their natural environment, and realistic conservation measures are complex and would require immediate protection of specific areas that we have identified. Ecological-niche modeling is a suitable tool for conservation assessment of freshwater species, but availability of environmental

  4. High resolution niche models of malaria vectors in northern Tanzania: a new capacity to predict malaria risk?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manisha A Kulkarni

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Malaria transmission rates in Africa can vary dramatically over the space of a few kilometres. This spatial heterogeneity reflects variation in vector mosquito habitat and presents an important obstacle to the efficient allocation of malaria control resources. Malaria control is further complicated by combinations of vector species that respond differently to control interventions. Recent modelling innovations make it possible to predict vector distributions and extrapolate malaria risk continentally, but these risk mapping efforts have not yet bridged the spatial gap to guide on-the-ground control efforts. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We used Maximum Entropy with purpose-built, high resolution land cover data and other environmental factors to model the spatial distributions of the three dominant malaria vector species in a 94,000 km(2 region of east Africa. Remotely sensed land cover was necessary in each vector's niche model. Seasonality of precipitation and maximum annual temperature also contributed to niche models for Anopheles arabiensis and An. funestus s.l. (AUC 0.989 and 0.991, respectively, but cold season precipitation and elevation were important for An. gambiae s.s. (AUC 0.997. Although these niche models appear highly accurate, the critical test is whether they improve predictions of malaria prevalence in human populations. Vector habitat within 1.5 km of community-based malaria prevalence measurements interacts with elevation to substantially improve predictions of Plasmodium falciparum prevalence in children. The inclusion of the mechanistic link between malaria prevalence and vector habitat greatly improves the precision and accuracy of prevalence predictions (r(2 = 0.83 including vector habitat, or r(2 = 0.50 without vector habitat. Predictions including vector habitat are unbiased (observations vs. model predictions of prevalence: slope = 1.02. Using this model, we generate a high resolution map of predicted

  5. Modellazione della nicchia ecologica di specie marine = Marine species ecological niche modelling

    OpenAIRE

    Castelli, Donatella; Candela, Leonardo; Coro, Gianpaolo; Pagano, Pasquale; Sinibaldi, Fabio

    2013-01-01

    A certain species' niche, i.e. those environmental conditions and resources which permit that species can survive and reproduce, is a basic piece of knowledge for monitoring ocean's populousness from both commercial point of view (to steer fishery activities to defined areas) and from the biological one (to monitor dying species). In the context of the European iMarine project (www.i-marine.eu), the Networked Multimedia Information Systems Laboratory (NeMIS) of the CNR Institute of Informatio...

  6. Comparative phylogeography and niche modeling for three species complexes of SE China (Paradoxornisspp., Pycnonotus spp.,Spizixos spp.)

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Luke B KLICKA; Luke C CAMPILLO; Joseph D MANTHEY; Yanhua QU

    2015-01-01

    Contrasting multiple organisms with similar contemporary distributions, researchers can identify shared evolutionary patterns and provide historical context for community composition. We used three species complexes with overlapping distribu-tions in Southeastern China and surrounding islands to explore the phylogeographic history of the region. Despite similar geo-graphic distributions, genetic data revealed few congruent patterns, but all complexes displayed genetic divergence for Taiwanese populations. Additionally, niche modeling and divergence dating did not find support for diversification associated with the Last Glacial Maximum [Current Zoology 61 (5): 943–950 , 2015].

  7. Redefining the Australian Anthrax Belt: Modeling the Ecological Niche and Predicting the Geographic Distribution of Bacillus anthracis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alassane S Barro

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The ecology and distribution of B. anthracis in Australia is not well understood, despite the continued occurrence of anthrax outbreaks in the eastern states of the country. Efforts to estimate the spatial extent of the risk of disease have been limited to a qualitative definition of an anthrax belt extending from southeast Queensland through the centre of New South Wales and into northern Victoria. This definition of the anthrax belt does not consider the role of environmental conditions in the distribution of B. anthracis. Here, we used the genetic algorithm for rule-set prediction model system (GARP, historical anthrax outbreaks and environmental data to model the ecological niche of B. anthracis and predict its potential geographic distribution in Australia. Our models reveal the niche of B. anthracis in Australia is characterized by a narrow range of ecological conditions concentrated in two disjunct corridors. The most dominant corridor, used to redefine a new anthrax belt, parallels the Eastern Highlands and runs from north Victoria to central east Queensland through the centre of New South Wales. This study has redefined the anthrax belt in eastern Australia and provides insights about the ecological factors that limit the distribution of B. anthracis at the continental scale for Australia. The geographic distributions identified can help inform anthrax surveillance strategies by public and veterinary health agencies.

  8. Redefining the Australian Anthrax Belt: Modeling the Ecological Niche and Predicting the Geographic Distribution of Bacillus anthracis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barro, Alassane S; Fegan, Mark; Moloney, Barbara; Porter, Kelly; Muller, Janine; Warner, Simone; Blackburn, Jason K

    2016-06-01

    The ecology and distribution of B. anthracis in Australia is not well understood, despite the continued occurrence of anthrax outbreaks in the eastern states of the country. Efforts to estimate the spatial extent of the risk of disease have been limited to a qualitative definition of an anthrax belt extending from southeast Queensland through the centre of New South Wales and into northern Victoria. This definition of the anthrax belt does not consider the role of environmental conditions in the distribution of B. anthracis. Here, we used the genetic algorithm for rule-set prediction model system (GARP), historical anthrax outbreaks and environmental data to model the ecological niche of B. anthracis and predict its potential geographic distribution in Australia. Our models reveal the niche of B. anthracis in Australia is characterized by a narrow range of ecological conditions concentrated in two disjunct corridors. The most dominant corridor, used to redefine a new anthrax belt, parallels the Eastern Highlands and runs from north Victoria to central east Queensland through the centre of New South Wales. This study has redefined the anthrax belt in eastern Australia and provides insights about the ecological factors that limit the distribution of B. anthracis at the continental scale for Australia. The geographic distributions identified can help inform anthrax surveillance strategies by public and veterinary health agencies. PMID:27280981

  9. Redefining the Australian Anthrax Belt: Modeling the Ecological Niche and Predicting the Geographic Distribution of Bacillus anthracis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barro, Alassane S.; Fegan, Mark; Moloney, Barbara; Porter, Kelly; Muller, Janine; Warner, Simone; Blackburn, Jason K.

    2016-01-01

    The ecology and distribution of B. anthracis in Australia is not well understood, despite the continued occurrence of anthrax outbreaks in the eastern states of the country. Efforts to estimate the spatial extent of the risk of disease have been limited to a qualitative definition of an anthrax belt extending from southeast Queensland through the centre of New South Wales and into northern Victoria. This definition of the anthrax belt does not consider the role of environmental conditions in the distribution of B. anthracis. Here, we used the genetic algorithm for rule-set prediction model system (GARP), historical anthrax outbreaks and environmental data to model the ecological niche of B. anthracis and predict its potential geographic distribution in Australia. Our models reveal the niche of B. anthracis in Australia is characterized by a narrow range of ecological conditions concentrated in two disjunct corridors. The most dominant corridor, used to redefine a new anthrax belt, parallels the Eastern Highlands and runs from north Victoria to central east Queensland through the centre of New South Wales. This study has redefined the anthrax belt in eastern Australia and provides insights about the ecological factors that limit the distribution of B. anthracis at the continental scale for Australia. The geographic distributions identified can help inform anthrax surveillance strategies by public and veterinary health agencies. PMID:27280981

  10. Modelling Niche Differentiation of Co-Existing, Elusive and Morphologically Similar Species: A Case Study of Four Macaque Species in Nakai-Nam Theun National Protected Area, Laos

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Camille N. Z. Coudrat

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Species misidentification often occurs when dealing with co-existing and morphologically similar species such as macaques, making the study of their ecology challenging. To overcome this issue, we use reliable occurrence data from camera-trap images and transect survey data to model their respective ecological niche and potential distribution locally in Nakai-Nam Theun National Protected Area (NNT NPA, central-Eastern Laos. We investigate niche differentiation of morphologically similar species using four sympatric macaque species in NNT NPA, as our model species: rhesus Macaca mulatta (Taxonomic Serial Number, TSN 180099, Northern pig-tailed M. leonina (TSN not listed; Assamese M. assamensis (TSN 573018 and stump-tailed M. arctoides (TSN 573017. We examine the implications for their conservation. We obtained occurrence data of macaque species from systematic 2006–2011 camera-trapping surveys and 2011–2012 transect surveys and model their niche and potential distribution with MaxEnt software using 25 environmental and topographic variables. The respective suitable habitat predicted for each species reveals niche segregation between the four species with a gradual geographical distribution following an environmental gradient within the study area. Camera-trapping positioned at many locations can increase elusive-species records with a relatively reduced and more systematic sampling effort and provide reliable species occurrence data. These can be used for environmental niche modelling to study niche segregation of morphologically similar species in areas where their distribution remains uncertain. Examining unresolved species' niches and potential distributions can have crucial implications for future research and species' management and conservation even in the most remote regions and for the least-known species.

  11. Transcriptome comparison of distinct osteolineage subsets in the hematopoietic stem cell niche using a triple fluorescent transgenic mouse model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Vionnie W C; Lymperi, Stefania; Ferraro, Francesca; Scadden, David T

    2015-09-01

    The bone marrow niche is recognized as a central player in maintaining and regulating the behavior of hematopoietic stem and progenitor cells. Specific gain-of and loss-of function experiments perturbing a range of osteolineage cells or their secreted proteins had been shown to affect stem cell maintenance (Calvi et al, 2003 [1]; Stier et al., 2005 [2]; Zhang et al., 2003 [3]; Nilsson et al., 2005 [4]; Greenbaum et al., 2013 [5]) and engraftment (Adam et al., 2006, 2009 [6,7]). We used specific in vivo cell deletion approaches to dissect the niche cell-parenchymal cell dependency in a complex bone marrow microenvironment. Endogenous deletion of osteocalcin-expressing (Ocn(+)) cells led to a loss of T immune cells (Yu et al., 2015 [8]. Ocn(+) cells express the Notch ligand DLL4 to communicate with T-competent progenitors, and thereby ensuring T precursor production and expression of chemotactic molecules on their cell surface for subsequent thymic seeding. In contrast, depletion of osterix-expressing (Osx(+)) osteoprogenitors led to reduced B immune cells. These distinct hematopoietic phenotypes suggest specific pairing of mesenchymal niche cells and parenchymal hematopoietic cells in the bone marrow to create unique functional units to support hematopoiesis. Here, we present the global gene expression profiles of these osteolineage subtypes utilizing a triple fluorescent transgenic mouse model (OsxCre(+);Rosa-mCh(+);Ocn:Topaz(+)) that labels Osx(+) cells red, Ocn(+) cells green, and Osx(+) Ocn(+) cells yellow. This system allows isolation of distinct osteolineage subsets within the same animal by flow cytometry. Array data that have been described in our study [8] are also publically available from NCBI Gene Expression Omnibus (GEO) with the accession number GSE66042. Differences in gene expression may correlate with functional difference in supporting hematopoiesis. PMID:26484277

  12. Range wide molecular data and niche modeling revealed the Pleistocene history of a global invader (Halyomorpha halys).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Geng-Ping; Ye, Zhen; Du, Juan; Zhang, Dan-Li; Zhen, Ya-hui; Zheng, Chen-guang; Zhao, Li; Li, Min; Bu, Wen-Jun

    2016-01-01

    Invasive species' Pleistocene history contains much information on its present population structure, dispersability and adaptability. In this study, the Pleistocene history of a global invasive pest (Brown Marmorated Stink Bug BMSB, Halyomorpha halys) was unveiled using the coupled approach of phylogeography and ecological niche modelling. Rangewide molecular data suggests that the Taiwan and other native populations had diverged in mid-Pleistocene. In mainland China, the native BMSB did not experience population contraction and divergence during last glacial, but persisted in interconnected populations. Combined Bayesian Skyline Plot (BSP) and niche modelling revealed a rapid expansion occurred during the transition of Last Inter Glacial (LIG) to Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). High genetic diversity and multi-reticular haplotypes network exist in the original sources populations of BMSB invasion in northern China. They were speculated to be colonized from the central China, with many derived haplotypes evolved to adapt the novel environment. The ENM future prediction suggest that BMSB may expand northward to higher latitudes in the US and Europe, because of its high invasive ability, together with the available suitable climate space there. PMID:26996353

  13. Uses and Requirements of Ecological Niche Models and Related Distributional Models

    OpenAIRE

    A. Townsend Peterson

    2006-01-01

    Abstract.—Modeling approaches that relate known occurrences of species to landscape features to discover ecological properties and predict geographic occurrences have seen extensive recent application in ecology, systematics, and conservation. A key component in this process is estimation or characterization of species’ distributions in ecological space, which can then be useful in understanding their potential distributions in geographic space. Hence, this process is often termed ecological ...

  14. Niche evolution and adaptive radiation: Testing the order of trait divergence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ackerly, D.D.; Schwilk, D.W.; Webb, C.O.

    2006-01-01

    In the course of an adaptive radiation, the evolution of niche parameters is of particular interest for understanding modes of speciation and the consequences for coexistence of related species within communities. We pose a general question: In the course of an evolutionary radiation, do traits related to within-community niche differences (?? niche) evolve before or after differentiation of macrohabitat affinity or climatic tolerances (?? niche)? Here we introduce a new test to address this question, based on a modification of the method of independent contrasts. The divergence order test (DOT) is based on the average age of the nodes on a tree, weighted by the absolute magnitude of the contrast at each node for a particular trait. The comparison of these weighted averages reveals whether large divergences for one trait have occurred earlier or later in the course of diversification, relative to a second trait; significance is determined by bootstrapping from maximum-likelihood ancestral state reconstructions. The method is applied to the evolution of Ceanothus, a woody plant group in California, in which co-occurring species exhibit significant differences in a key leaf trait (specific leaf area) associated with contrasting physiological and life history strategies. Co-occurring species differ more for this trait than expected under a null model of community assembly. This ?? niche difference evolved early in the divergence of two major subclades within Ceanothus, whereas climatic distributions (?? niche traits) diversified later within each of the subclades. However, rapid evolution of climate parameters makes inferences of early divergence events highly uncertain, and differentiation of the ?? niche might have taken place throughout the evolution of the group, without leaving a clear phylogenetic signal. Similar patterns observed in several plant and animal groups suggest that early divergence of ?? niche traits might be a common feature of niche evolution in

  15. Evolution of climate niches in European mammals?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dormann, Carsten F; Gruber, Bernd; Winter, Marten; Herrmann, Dirk

    2010-04-23

    Our ability to predict consequences of climate change is severely impaired by the lack of knowledge on the ability of species to adapt to changing environmental conditions. We used distribution data for 140 mammal species in Europe, together with data on climate, land cover and topography, to derive a statistical description of their realized climate niche. We then compared climate niche overlap of pairs of species, selected on the basis of phylogenetic information. In contrast to expectations, related species were not similar in their climate niche. Rather, even species pairs that had a common ancestor less than 1 Ma already display very high climate niche distances. We interpret our finding as a strong interspecific competitive constraint on the realized niche, rather than a rapid evolution of the fundamental niche. If correct, our results imply a very limited usefulness of climate niche models for the prediction of future mammal distributions. PMID:19828492

  16. Chick embryo xenograft model reveals a novel perineural niche for human adipose-derived stromal cells

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ingrid R. Cordeiro

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Human adipose-derived stromal cells (hADSC are a heterogeneous cell population that contains adult multipotent stem cells. Although it is well established that hADSC have skeletal potential in vivo in adult organisms, in vitro assays suggest further differentiation capacity, such as into glia. Thus, we propose that grafting hADSC into the embryo can provide them with a much more instructive microenvironment, allowing the human cells to adopt diverse fates or niches. Here, hADSC spheroids were grafted into either the presumptive presomitic mesoderm or the first branchial arch (BA1 regions of chick embryos. Cells were identified without previous manipulations via human-specific Alu probes, which allows efficient long-term tracing of heterogeneous primary cultures. When grafted into the trunk, in contrast to previous studies, hADSC were not found in chondrogenic or osteogenic territories up to E8. Surprisingly, 82.5% of the hADSC were associated with HNK1+ tissues, such as peripheral nerves. Human skin fibroblasts showed a smaller tropism for nerves. In line with other studies, hADSC also adopted perivascular locations. When grafted into the presumptive BA1, 74.6% of the cells were in the outflow tract, the final goal of cardiac neural crest cells, and were also associated with peripheral nerves. This is the first study showing that hADSC could adopt a perineural niche in vivo and were able to recognize cues for neural crest cell migration of the host. Therefore, we propose that xenografts of human cells into chick embryos can reveal novel behaviors of heterogeneous cell populations, such as response to migration cues.

  17. Comparative analysis of remotely-sensed data products via ecological niche modeling of avian influenza case occurrences in Middle Eastern poultry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiao Xiangming

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Ecological niche modeling integrates known sites of occurrence of species or phenomena with data on environmental variation across landscapes to infer environmental spaces potentially inhabited (i.e., the ecological niche to generate predictive maps of potential distributions in geographic space. Key inputs to this process include raster data layers characterizing spatial variation in environmental parameters, such as vegetation indices from remotely sensed satellite imagery. The extent to which ecological niche models reflect real-world distributions depends on a number of factors, but an obvious concern is the quality and content of the environmental data layers. Methods We assessed ecological niche model predictions of H5N1 avian flu presence quantitatively within and among four geographic regions, based on models incorporating two means of summarizing three vegetation indices derived from the MODIS satellite. We evaluated our models for predictive ability using partial ROC analysis and GLM ANOVA to compare performance among indices and regions. Results We found correlations between vegetation indices to be high, such that they contain information that overlaps broadly. Neither the type of vegetation index used nor method of summary affected model performance significantly. However, the degree to which model predictions had to be transferred (i.e., projected onto landscapes and conditions not represented on the landscape of training impacted predictive strength greatly (within-region model predictions far out-performed models projected among regions. Conclusion Our results provide the first quantitative tests of most appropriate uses of different remotely sensed data sets in ecological niche modeling applications. While our testing did not result in a decisive "best" index product or means of summarizing indices, it emphasizes the need for careful evaluation of products used in modeling (e.g. matching temporal dimensions

  18. From California dreaming to California data: Challenging historic models for landfill CH4 emissions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kurt Spokas

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Improved quantification of diverse CH4 sources at the urban scale is needed to guide local GHG mitigation strategies in the Anthropocene. Herein, we focus on landfill CH4 emissions in California, challenging the current IPCC methodology which focuses on a climate dependency for landfill CH4 generation (methanogenesis, but does not explicitly consider climate or soil dependencies for emissions. Relying on a comprehensive California landfill database, a field-validated process-based model for landfill CH4 emissions (CALMIM, and select field measurements at 10 California sites with a variety of methods, we support the contrary position: Limited climate dependency for methanogenesis, but strong climate dependency for landfill CH4 emissions. Contrary to the historic IPCC empirical model for methanogenesis with kinetic constants related to climate, we demonstrate a simpler and more robust linear empirical relationship (r2 = 0.85; n=128 between waste mass and landfill biogas recovery [126 × 10-6 Nm3 CH4 hr-1 Mgwaste-1]. More interestingly, there are no statistically significant relationships with climate, site age, or status (open/closed for landfill biogas recovery. The current IPCC methodology does not consider soil or climate drivers for gaseous transport or seasonal methanotrophy in different cover soils. On the other hand, we illustrate strong climate and soil dependencies for landfill emissions—e.g., average intermediate cover emissions below 20 g CH4 m-2 d-1 when the site’s mean annual precipitation is >500 mm y-1. Thereby, for the California landfill CH4 inventory, the highest-emitting sites shift from landfills containing the largest mass of waste to sites dominated by intermediate cover types having a reduced rate of soil CH4 oxidation during the annual cycle. These differences have profound implications for developing more realistic, science-based urban and regional scale GHG inventories for landfill CH4 while reducing

  19. Claims of potential expansion throughout the U.S. by invasive python species are contradicted by ecological niche models.

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    R Alexander Pyron

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Recent reports from the United States Geological Survey (USGS suggested that invasive Burmese pythons in the Everglades may quickly spread into many parts of the U.S. due to putative climatic suitability. Additionally, projected trends of global warming were predicted to significantly increase suitable habitat and promote range expansion by these snakes. However, the ecological limitations of the Burmese python are not known and the possible effects of global warming on the potential expansion of the species are also unclear. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Here we show that a predicted continental expansion is unlikely based on the ecology of the organism and the climate of the U.S. Our ecological niche models, which include variables representing climatic extremes as well as averages, indicate that the only suitable habitat in the U.S. for Burmese pythons presently occurs in southern Florida and in extreme southern Texas. Models based on the current distribution of the snake predict suitable habitat in essentially the only region in which the snakes are found in the U.S. Future climate models based on global warming forecasts actually indicate a significant contraction in suitable habitat for Burmese pythons in the U.S. as well as in their native range. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The Burmese python is strongly limited to the small area of suitable environmental conditions in the United States it currently inhabits due to the ecological niche preferences of the snake. The ability of the Burmese python to expand further into the U.S. is severely limited by ecological constraints. Global warming is predicted to significantly reduce the area of suitable habitat worldwide, underscoring the potential negative effects of climate change for many species.

  20. Evaluating the potential of ecological niche modelling as a component in marine non-indigenous species risk assessments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leidenberger, Sonja; Obst, Matthias; Kulawik, Robert; Stelzer, Kerstin; Heyer, Karin; Hardisty, Alex; Bourlat, Sarah J

    2015-08-15

    Marine biological invasions have increased with the development of global trading, causing the homogenization of communities and the decline of biodiversity. A main vector is ballast water exchange from shipping. This study evaluates the use of ecological niche modelling (ENM) to predict the spread of 18 non-indigenous species (NIS) along shipping routes and their potential habitat suitability (hot/cold spots) in the Baltic Sea and Northeast Atlantic. Results show that, contrary to current risk assessment methods, temperature and sea ice concentration determine habitat suitability for 61% of species, rather than salinity (11%). We show high habitat suitability for NIS in the Skagerrak and Kattegat, a transitional area for NIS entering or leaving the Baltic Sea. As many cases of NIS introduction in the marine environment are associated with shipping pathways, we explore how ENM can be used to provide valuable information on the potential spread of NIS for ballast water risk assessment. PMID:26066862

  1. Climatic suitability of Aedes albopictus in Europe referring to climate change projections: comparison of mechanistic and correlative niche modelling approaches.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fischer, D; Thomas, S M; Neteler, M; Tjaden, N B; Beierkuhnlein, C

    2014-01-01

    The Asian tiger mosquito, Aedes albopictus, is capable of transmitting a broad range of viruses to humans. Since its introduction at the end of the 20th century, it has become well established in large parts of southern Europe. As future expansion as a result of climate change can be expected, determining the current and projected future climatic suitability of this invasive mosquito in Europe is of interest. Several studies have tried to detect the potential habitats for this species, but differing data sources and modelling approaches must be considered when interpreting the findings. Here, various modelling methodologies are compared with special emphasis on model set-up and study design. Basic approaches and model algorithms for the projection of spatio-temporal trends within the 21st century differ substantially. Applied methods range from mechanistic models (e.g. overlay of climatic constraints based on geographic information systems or rather process-based approaches) to correlative niche models. We conclude that spatial characteristics such as introduction gateways and dispersal pathways need to be considered. Laboratory experiments addressing the climatic constraints of the mosquito are required for improved modelling results. However, the main source of uncertainty remains the insufficient knowledge about the species' ability to adapt to novel environments. PMID:24556349

  2. Spatial distributions of niche-constructing populations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaozhuo Han

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Niche construction theory regards organisms not only as the object of natural selection but also an active subject that can change their own selective pressure through eco-evolutionary feedbacks. Through reviewing the existing works on the theoretical models of niche construction, here we present the progress made on how niche construction influences genetic structure of spatially structured populations and the spatial-temporal dynamics of metapopulations, with special focuses on mathematical models and simulation methods. The majority of results confirmed that niche construction can significantly alter the evolutionary trajectories of structured populations. Organism-environmental interactions induced by niche construction can have profound influence on the dynamics, competition and diversity of metapopulations. It can affect fine-scale spatially distribution of species and spatial heterogeneity of the environment. We further propose a few research directions with potentials, such as applying adaptive dynamics or spatial game theory to explore the effect of niche construction on phenotypic evolution and diversification.

  3. PREDICTIONS IN AN INVADED WORLD - PART I: USING NICHE MODELS TO PREDICT DISTRIBUTIONS OF MARINE/ESTUARINE SPECIES AT THE HABITAT SCALE

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niche models can be used to predict the distributions of marine/estuarine nonindigenous species (NIS) over three spatial scales. The goal at the biogeographic scale is to predict whether a species is likely to invade a geographic region. At the regional scale, the goal is to pr...

  4. Helium preconditioning protects the brain against hypoxia/ischemia injury via improving the neurovascular niche in a neonatal rat model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yi; Zhang, Peixi; Liu, Ying; Liu, Wenwu; Yin, Na

    2016-11-01

    This study aimed to investigate whether helium preconditioning (He-PC) is able to exert neuroprotective effects via improving focal neurovascular niche in a neonatal rat hypoxia/ischemia (HI) brain injury model. Seven day old rat pups were divided into control group, HI group and He-PC group. HI was induced by exposure to 8% oxygen for 90min one day after preconditioning with 70% helium-30% oxygen for three 5-min periods. At 3 and 7 days, the brain was collected for the detection of inflammation related factors (tumor necrosis factor α [TNF-α], interleukin-1β [IL-1β], IL-10) and growth/neurotrophic factors (brain-derived neurotrophic factor [BDNF], basic fibroblast growth factor [bFGF] and nerve growth factor [NGF]); at 7 days, neurobehaviors were evaluated, and the brain was collected for the detection of mRNA expression of vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) and angiopoietin-1 (Ang-1) by PCR, protein expression of angiogenesis related molecules (VEGF, Ang-1, Tie-2 and Flt-1) by Western blotting and microvessel density (MCD) by immunohistochemistry for vWF. Results showed He-PC was able to reduce TNF-α and IL-1β, further increase IL-10, BDNF, bFGF and NGF, elevate the mRNA expression of VEGF and Ang-1, increase the protein expression of VEGF, Ang-1, Tie-2 and Flt-1, promote angiogenesis and improve neurobehaviors as compared to HI group. These findings suggest that He-PC may improve the post-stroke neurovascular niche to exert neuroprotective effects on neonatal HI brain injury. PMID:27515290

  5. Species Delimitation in the Continental Forms of the Genus Epicrates (Serpentes, Boidae) Integrating Phylogenetics and Environmental Niche Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rivera, Paula C.; Di Cola, Valeria; Martínez, Juan J.; Gardenal, Cristina N.; Chiaraviglio, Margarita

    2011-01-01

    Until recently, the genus Epicrates (Boidae) presented only one continental species, Epicrates cenchria, distributed in Central and South America, but after a taxonomic revision using morphologic characters five species were recognized: E. cenchria, E. crassus, E. maurus, E. assisi, and E. alvarezi. We analyzed two independent data sets, environmental niche models and phylogeny based on molecular information, to explore species delimitation in the continental species of this genus. Our results indicated that the environmental requirements of the species are different; therefore there are not evidences of ecological interchangeability among them. There is a clear correlation between species distributions and the major biogeographic regions of Central and South America. Their overall distribution reveals that allopatry or parapatry is the general pattern. These evidences suggest that habitat isolation prevents or limits gene exchange among them. The phylogenetic reconstruction showed that the continental Epicrates are monophyletic, being E. alvarezi the sister species for the remaining two clades: E. crassus - E. assisi, and E. maurus - E. cenchria. The clade grouping the continental Epicrates is the sister taxon of the genus Eunectes and not of the Caribbean Epicrates clade, indicating that the genus is paraphyletic. There is a non-consistent pattern in niche evolution among continental Epicrates. On the contrary, a high variation and abrupt shifts in environmental variables are shown when ancestral character states were reconstructed on the sequence-based tree. The degree of genetic and ecological divergence among continental Epicrates and the phylogenetic analyses support the elevation to full species of E. cenchria, E. crassus, E. maurus, E. assisi, and E. alvarezi. PMID:21912634

  6. Single-cell and coupled GRN models of cell patterning in the Arabidopsis thaliana root stem cell niche

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alvarez-Buylla Elena R

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Recent experimental work has uncovered some of the genetic components required to maintain the Arabidopsis thaliana root stem cell niche (SCN and its structure. Two main pathways are involved. One pathway depends on the genes SHORTROOT and SCARECROW and the other depends on the PLETHORA genes, which have been proposed to constitute the auxin readouts. Recent evidence suggests that a regulatory circuit, composed of WOX5 and CLE40, also contributes to the SCN maintenance. Yet, we still do not understand how the niche is dynamically maintained and patterned or if the uncovered molecular components are sufficient to recover the observed gene expression configurations that characterize the cell types within the root SCN. Mathematical and computational tools have proven useful in understanding the dynamics of cell differentiation. Hence, to further explore root SCN patterning, we integrated available experimental data into dynamic Gene Regulatory Network (GRN models and addressed if these are sufficient to attain observed gene expression configurations in the root SCN in a robust and autonomous manner. Results We found that an SCN GRN model based only on experimental data did not reproduce the configurations observed within the root SCN. We developed several alternative GRN models that recover these expected stable gene configurations. Such models incorporate a few additional components and interactions in addition to those that have been uncovered. The recovered configurations are stable to perturbations, and the models are able to recover the observed gene expression profiles of almost all the mutants described so far. However, the robustness of the postulated GRNs is not as high as that of other previously studied networks. Conclusions These models are the first published approximations for a dynamic mechanism of the A. thaliana root SCN cellular pattering. Our model is useful to formally show that the data now available are not

  7. Life History Traits and Niche Instability Impact Accuracy and Temporal Transferability for Historically Calibrated Distribution Models of North American Birds.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guinevere O U Wogan

    Full Text Available A primary assumption of environmental niche models (ENMs is that models are both accurate and transferable across geography or time; however, recent work has shown that models may be accurate but not highly transferable. While some of this is due to modeling technique, individual species ecologies may also underlie this phenomenon. Life history traits certainly influence the accuracy of predictive ENMs, but their impact on model transferability is less understood. This study investigated how life history traits influence the predictive accuracy and transferability of ENMs using historically calibrated models for birds. In this study I used historical occurrence and climate data (1950-1990s to build models for a sample of birds, and then projected them forward to the 'future' (1960-1990s. The models were then validated against models generated from occurrence data at that 'future' time. Internal and external validation metrics, as well as metrics assessing transferability, and Generalized Linear Models were used to identify life history traits that were significant predictors of accuracy and transferability. This study found that the predictive ability of ENMs differs with regard to life history characteristics such as range, migration, and habitat, and that the rarity versus commonness of a species affects the predicted stability and overlap and hence the transferability of projected models. Projected ENMs with both high accuracy and transferability scores, still sometimes suffered from over- or under- predicted species ranges. Life history traits certainly influenced the accuracy of predictive ENMs for birds, but while aspects of geographic range impact model transferability, the mechanisms underlying this are less understood.

  8. Santa Barbara, California Coastal Digital Elevation Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — NOAA's National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) is building high-resolution digital elevation models (DEMs) for select U.S. coastal regions. These integrated...

  9. Fort Bragg, California Coastal Digital Elevation Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — NOAA's National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) is building high-resolution digital elevation models (DEMs) for select U.S. coastal regions. These integrated...

  10. Eureka, California Coastal Digital Elevation Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — NOAA's National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) is building high-resolution digital elevation models (DEMs) for select U.S. coastal regions. These integrated...

  11. Central California Coastal Digital Elevation Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — NOAA's National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) is building high-resolution digital elevation models (DEMs) for select U.S. coastal regions. These integrated...

  12. Crescent City, California Coastal Digital Elevation Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — NOAA's National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) is building high-resolution digital elevation models (DEMs) for select U.S. coastal regions. These integrated...

  13. Monterey, California Coastal Digital Elevation Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — NOAA's National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) is building high-resolution digital elevation models (DEMs) for select U.S. coastal regions. These integrated...

  14. Santa Monica, California Coastal Digital Elevation Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — NOAA's National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) is building high-resolution digital elevation models (DEMs) for select U.S. coastal regions. These integrated...

  15. Arena Cove, California Coastal Digital Elevation Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — NOAA's National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) is building high-resolution digital elevation models (DEMs) for select U.S. coastal regions. These integrated...

  16. San Diego, California Coastal Digital Elevation Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — NOAA's National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) is building high-resolution digital elevation models (DEMs) for select U.S. coastal regions. These integrated...

  17. Nonpoint Source Pollution Modeling in the North Coast of California

    OpenAIRE

    Viers, Joshua H.; McCoy, Michael C.; Quinn, James F.; Johnson, Michael L.

    1999-01-01

    The Navarro River watershed hosts one of the last extant populations of coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch) in the Central California Evolutionarily Significant Unit. As such, the identification and restoration of riparian habitats in the Navarro River watershed is paramount to the continued survival of this coho salmon population. This study utilizes a modeling procedure to identify priority locations in the Navarro River watershed using a geographic information system (GIS). This riparian ha...

  18. Which Factors Determine Spatial Segregation in the South American Opossums (Didelphis aurita and D. albiventris)? An Ecological Niche Modelling and Geometric Morphometrics Approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cáceres, Nilton Carlos; de Moraes Weber, Marcelo; Melo, Geruza Leal; Meloro, Carlo; Sponchiado, Jonas; Carvalho, Renan Dos Santos; Bubadué, Jamile de Moura

    2016-01-01

    Didelphis albiventris and D. aurita are Neotropical marsupials that share a unique evolutionary history and both are largely distributed throughout South America, being primarily allopatric throughout their ranges. In the Araucaria moist forest of Southern Brazil these species are sympatric and they might potentially compete having similar ecology. For this reason, they are ideal biological models to address questions about ecological character displacement and how closely related species might share their geographic space. Little is known about how two morphologically similar species of marsupials may affect each other through competition, if by competitive exclusion and competitive release. We combined ecological niche modeling and geometric morphometrics to explore the possible effects of competition on their distributional ranges and skull morphology. Ecological niche modeling was used to predict their potential distribution and this method enabled us to identify a case of biotic exclusion where the habit generalist D. albiventris is excluded by the presence of the specialist D. aurita. The morphometric analyses show that a degree of shape discrimination occurs between the species, strengthened by allometric differences, which possibly allowed them to occupy marginally different feeding niches supplemented by behavioral shift in contact areas. Overlap in skull morphology is shown between sympatric and allopatric specimens and a significant, but weak, shift in shape occurs only in D. aurita in sympatric areas. This could be a residual evidence of a higher past competition between both species, when contact zones were possibly larger than today. Therefore, the specialist D. aurita acts a biotic barrier to D. albiventris when niche diversity is not available for coexistence. On the other hand, when there is niche diversification (e.g. habitat mosaic), both species are capable to coexist with a minimal competitive effect on the morphology of D. aurita. PMID

  19. Which Factors Determine Spatial Segregation in the South American Opossums (Didelphis aurita and D. albiventris? An Ecological Niche Modelling and Geometric Morphometrics Approach.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nilton Carlos Cáceres

    Full Text Available Didelphis albiventris and D. aurita are Neotropical marsupials that share a unique evolutionary history and both are largely distributed throughout South America, being primarily allopatric throughout their ranges. In the Araucaria moist forest of Southern Brazil these species are sympatric and they might potentially compete having similar ecology. For this reason, they are ideal biological models to address questions about ecological character displacement and how closely related species might share their geographic space. Little is known about how two morphologically similar species of marsupials may affect each other through competition, if by competitive exclusion and competitive release. We combined ecological niche modeling and geometric morphometrics to explore the possible effects of competition on their distributional ranges and skull morphology. Ecological niche modeling was used to predict their potential distribution and this method enabled us to identify a case of biotic exclusion where the habit generalist D. albiventris is excluded by the presence of the specialist D. aurita. The morphometric analyses show that a degree of shape discrimination occurs between the species, strengthened by allometric differences, which possibly allowed them to occupy marginally different feeding niches supplemented by behavioral shift in contact areas. Overlap in skull morphology is shown between sympatric and allopatric specimens and a significant, but weak, shift in shape occurs only in D. aurita in sympatric areas. This could be a residual evidence of a higher past competition between both species, when contact zones were possibly larger than today. Therefore, the specialist D. aurita acts a biotic barrier to D. albiventris when niche diversity is not available for coexistence. On the other hand, when there is niche diversification (e.g. habitat mosaic, both species are capable to coexist with a minimal competitive effect on the morphology of D

  20. Which Factors Determine Spatial Segregation in the South American Opossums (Didelphis aurita and D. albiventris)? An Ecological Niche Modelling and Geometric Morphometrics Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cáceres, Nilton Carlos; de Moraes Weber, Marcelo; Melo, Geruza Leal; Meloro, Carlo; Sponchiado, Jonas; Carvalho, Renan dos Santos; Bubadué, Jamile de Moura

    2016-01-01

    Didelphis albiventris and D. aurita are Neotropical marsupials that share a unique evolutionary history and both are largely distributed throughout South America, being primarily allopatric throughout their ranges. In the Araucaria moist forest of Southern Brazil these species are sympatric and they might potentially compete having similar ecology. For this reason, they are ideal biological models to address questions about ecological character displacement and how closely related species might share their geographic space. Little is known about how two morphologically similar species of marsupials may affect each other through competition, if by competitive exclusion and competitive release. We combined ecological niche modeling and geometric morphometrics to explore the possible effects of competition on their distributional ranges and skull morphology. Ecological niche modeling was used to predict their potential distribution and this method enabled us to identify a case of biotic exclusion where the habit generalist D. albiventris is excluded by the presence of the specialist D. aurita. The morphometric analyses show that a degree of shape discrimination occurs between the species, strengthened by allometric differences, which possibly allowed them to occupy marginally different feeding niches supplemented by behavioral shift in contact areas. Overlap in skull morphology is shown between sympatric and allopatric specimens and a significant, but weak, shift in shape occurs only in D. aurita in sympatric areas. This could be a residual evidence of a higher past competition between both species, when contact zones were possibly larger than today. Therefore, the specialist D. aurita acts a biotic barrier to D. albiventris when niche diversity is not available for coexistence. On the other hand, when there is niche diversification (e.g. habitat mosaic), both species are capable to coexist with a minimal competitive effect on the morphology of D. aurita. PMID

  1. Assessing the Global Risk of Establishment of Cydia pomonella (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae) using CLIMEX and MaxEnt Niche Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, Sunil; Neven, Lisa G; Zhu, Hongyu; Zhang, Runzhi

    2015-08-01

    Accurate assessment of insect pest establishment risk is needed by national plant protection organizations to negotiate international trade of horticultural commodities that can potentially carry the pests and result in inadvertent introductions in the importing countries. We used mechanistic and correlative niche models to quantify and map the global patterns of the potential for establishment of codling moth (Cydia pomonella L.), a major pest of apples, peaches, pears, and other pome and stone fruits, and a quarantine pest in countries where it currently does not occur. The mechanistic model CLIMEX was calibrated using species-specific physiological tolerance thresholds, whereas the correlative model MaxEnt used species occurrences and climatic spatial data. Projected potential distribution from both models conformed well to the current known distribution of codling moth. None of the models predicted suitable environmental conditions in countries located between 20°N and 20°S potentially because of shorter photoperiod, and lack of chilling requirement (<60 d at ≤10°C) in these areas for codling moth to break diapause. Models predicted suitable conditions in South Korea and Japan where codling moth currently does not occur but where its preferred host species (i.e., apple) is present. Average annual temperature and latitude were the main environmental variables associated with codling moth distribution at global level. The predictive models developed in this study present the global risk of establishment of codling moth, and can be used for monitoring potential introductions of codling moth in different countries and by policy makers and trade negotiators in making science-based decisions. PMID:26470312

  2. Model outputs - Developing end-to-end models of the Gulf of California

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The purpose of this project is to develop spatially discrete end-to-end models of the northern Gulf of California, linking oceanography, biogeochemistry, food web...

  3. Atlantis model outputs - Developing end-to-end models of the California Current Large Marine Ecosystem

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The purpose of this project is to develop spatially discrete end-to-end models of the California Current LME, linking oceanography, biogeochemistry, food web...

  4. Evaluating transport in the WRF model along the California coast

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Yver

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a step in the development of a top-down method to complement the bottom-up inventories of halocarbon emissions in California using high frequency observations, forward simulations and inverse methods. The Scripps Institution of Oceanography high-frequency atmospheric halocarbon measurement sites are located along the California coast and therefore the evaluation of transport in the chosen Weather Research Forecast (WRF model at these sites is crucial for inverse modeling. The performance of the transport model has been investigated by comparing the wind direction and speed at four locations along the coast using aircraft weather reports. Different planetary boundary layer (PBL schemes, nesting options and two meteorological datasets have been tested. Finally, simulated concentration of an inert tracer has been briefly investigated. All the PBL schemes present similar results that generally agree with observations, except in summer when the model sea breeze is too strong. At the coarse 12 km resolution, using ERA-interim (ECMWF Re-Analysis as initial and boundary conditions leads to improvements compared to using the North American Model (NAM dataset. Adding higher resolution nests also improves the match with the observations. However, no further improvement is observed from increasing the nest resolution from 4 km to 0.8 km. Once optimized, the model is able to reproduce tracer measurements during typical winter California large-scale events (Santa Ana. Furthermore, with the WRF/CHEM chemistry module and the European Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR version 4.1 emissions for HFC-134a, we find that using a simple emission scaling factor is not sufficient to infer emissions, which highlights the need for more complex inversions.

  5. Microcavity arrays as an in vitro model system of the bone marrow niche for hematopoietic stem cells.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wuchter, Patrick; Saffrich, Rainer; Giselbrecht, Stefan; Nies, Cordula; Lorig, Hanna; Kolb, Stephanie; Ho, Anthony D; Gottwald, Eric

    2016-06-01

    In previous studies human mesenchymal stromal cells (MSCs) maintained the "stemness" of human hematopoietic progenitor cells (HPCs) through direct cell-cell contact in two-dimensional co-culture systems. We establish a three-dimensional (3D) co-culture system based on a custom-made chip, the 3(D)-KITChip, as an in vitro model system of the human hematopoietic stem cell niche. This array of up to 625 microcavities, with 300 μm size in each orientation, was inserted into a microfluidic bioreactor. The microcavities of the 3(D)-KITChip were inoculated with human bone marrow MSCs together with umbilical cord blood HPCs. MSCs used the microcavities as a scaffold to build a complex 3D mesh. HPCs were distributed three-dimensionally inside this MSC network and formed ß-catenin- and N-cadherin-based intercellular junctions to the surrounding MSCs. Using RT(2)-PCR and western blots, we demonstrate that a proportion of HPCs maintained the expression of CD34 throughout a culture period of 14 days. In colony-forming unit assays, the hematopoietic stem cell plasticity remained similar after 14 days of bioreactor co-culture, whereas monolayer co-cultures showed increasing signs of HPC differentiation and loss of stemness. These data support the notion that the 3D microenvironment created within the microcavity array preserves vital stem cell functions of HPCs more efficiently than conventional co-culture systems. PMID:26829941

  6. Assessing niche width of endothermic fish from genes to ecosystem.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Madigan, Daniel J; Carlisle, Aaron B; Gardner, Luke D; Jayasundara, Nishad; Micheli, Fiorenza; Schaefer, Kurt M; Fuller, Daniel W; Block, Barbara A

    2015-07-01

    Endothermy in vertebrates has been postulated to confer physiological and ecological advantages. In endothermic fish, niche expansion into cooler waters is correlated with specific physiological traits and is hypothesized to lead to greater foraging success and increased fitness. Using the seasonal co-occurrence of three tuna species in the eastern Pacific Ocean as a model system, we used cardiac gene expression data (as a proxy for thermal tolerance to low temperatures), archival tag data, and diet analyses to examine the vertical niche expansion hypothesis for endothermy in situ. Yellowfin, albacore, and Pacific bluefin tuna (PBFT) in the California Current system used more surface, mesopelagic, and deep waters, respectively. Expression of cardiac genes for calcium cycling increased in PBFT and coincided with broader vertical and thermal niche utilization. However, the PBFT diet was less diverse and focused on energy-rich forage fishes but did not show the greatest energy gains. Ecosystem-based management strategies for tunas should thus consider species-specific differences in physiology and foraging specialization. PMID:26100889

  7. MixSIAR: A Bayesian stable isotope mixing model for characterizing intrapopulation niche variation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Background/Question/Methods The science of stable isotope mixing models has tended towards the development of modeling products (e.g. IsoSource, MixSIR, SIAR), where methodological advances or syntheses of the current state of the art are published in parity with software packa...

  8. Genetic differentiation in two widespread, open-forest bird species of Southeast Asia (Copsychus saularis andMegalaima haemacephala):Insights from ecological niche modeling

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Haw Chuan LIM; Fasheng ZOU; Frederick H SHELDON

    2015-01-01

    Ecological niche modeling has emerged as an useful tool in the investigation of the phylogeographic histories of spe-cies or communities in a region. The high biodiversity (oftentimes cryptic), and complex geography and geological history of Southeast Asia particularly call for multipronged approaches in phylogeographic investigations. Past studies have focused on taxa that are associated with lowland rainforests, which is the dominant natural vegetation type. Here, we combine published phylo-genetic data, ecological niche modeling and paleo-climate models to reveal potential drivers of divergence in two open-forest bird species, the oriental magpie-robinCopsychus saularis and Coppersmith barbetMegalaima haemacephala. In spite of broad overlap in current distributions, there are subtle differences in their climatic niches, which result in different responses to past climatic changes. ForC. saularis, both Last Glacial Maximum climate models indicated that the entire Sundaland was climati-cally suitable, while phylogenetic analyses found divergent eastern and western Sundaland lineages. We thus postulate that this genetic divergence was a result of past separations of coastal habitats into eastern and western portions due to the emergence of Sunda shelf as sea-level fell. The current separation of morphological subspecies in Borneo is maintained by low climatic suita-bility (high annual rainfall) in certain regions. The extirpation ofM. haemacephala from Borneo and southern Malay Peninsula might have been driven by unsuitable conditions (high temperature seasonality) in central Sundaland and/or the lack of open woodlands. Our study shows that ecological niche modeling adds a powerful dimension to our attempt to understand lineage evolution in space [Current Zoology 61 (5): 922–934, 2015].

  9. Ecological niche model of Phlebotomus perniciosus, the main vector of canine leishmaniasis in north-eastern Italy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Signorini, Manuela; Cassini, Rudi; Drigo, Michele; Frangipane di Regalbono, Antonio; Pietrobelli, Mario; Montarsi, Fabrizio; Stensgaard, Anna-Sofie

    2014-11-01

    With respect to the epidemiology of leishmaniasis, it is crucial to take into account the ecoclimatic and environmental characteristics that influence the distribution patterns of the vector sand fly species. It is also important to consider the possible impact of on-going climate changes on the emergence of this disease. In order to map the potential distribution of Phlebotomus perniciosus, the main vector species of canine leishmaniasis in north-eastern Italy, geographical information systems tools, ecological niche models (ENM) and remotely sensed environmental data were applied for a retrospective analysis of an entomological survey conducted in north-eastern Italy over 12 years. Sand fly trapping was conducted from 2001 to 2012 in 175 sites in the provinces of Veneto, Friuli-Venezia Giulia and Trentino-Alto Adige. We developed a predictive model of potential distribution of P. perniciosus using the maximum entropy algorithm software, based on seasonal normalized difference vegetation index, day and night land surface temperature, the Corine land cover 2006, a digital elevation model (GTOPO30) and climate layers obtained from the WorldClim database. The MaxEnt prediction found the more suitable habitat for P. perniciosus to be hilly areas (100-300 m above the mean sea level) characterised by temperate climate during the winter and summer seasons, high winter vegetation cover and moderate rainfall during the activity season of vector sand fly. ENM provided a greater understanding of the geographical distribution and ecological requirements of P. perniciosus in the study area, which can be applied for the development of future surveillance strategies. PMID:25545936

  10. Ecological niche model of Phlebotomus perniciosus, the main vector of canine leishmaniasis in north-eastern Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manuela Signorini

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available With respect to the epidemiology of leishmaniasis, it is crucial to take into account the ecoclimatic and environ- mental characteristics that influence the distribution patterns of the vector sand fly species. It is also important to consider the possible impact of on-going climate changes on the emergence of this disease. In order to map the potential distribu- tion of Phlebotomus perniciosus, the main vector species of canine leishmaniasis in north-eastern Italy, geographical information systems tools, ecological niche models (ENM and remotely sensed environmental data were applied for a retrospective analysis of an entomological survey conducted in north-eastern Italy over 12 years. Sand fly trapping was conducted from 2001 to 2012 in 175 sites in the provinces of Veneto, Friuli-Venezia Giulia and Trentino-Alto Adige. We developed a predictive model of potential distribution of P. perniciosus using the maximum entropy algorithm software, based on seasonal normalized difference vegetation index, day and night land surface temperature, the Corine land cover 2006, a digital elevation model (GTOPO30 and climate layers obtained from the WorldClim database. The MaxEnt pre- diction found the more suitable habitat for P. perniciosus to be hilly areas (100-300 m above the mean sea level charac- terised by temperate climate during the winter and summer seasons, high winter vegetation cover and moderate rainfall during the activity season of vector sand fly. ENM provided a greater understanding of the geographical distribution and ecological requirements of P. perniciosus in the study area, which can be applied for the development of future surveil- lance strategies.

  11. Ecological niche of plant pathogens

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ecaterina Fodor

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available Disease ecology is a new approach to the understanding of the spread and dynamics of pathogens in natural and man-made environments. Defining and describing the ecological niche of the pathogens is one of the major tasks for ecological theory, as well as for practitioners preoccupied with the control and forecasting of established and emerging diseases. Niche theory has been periodically revised, not including in an explicit way the pathogens. However, many progresses have been achieved in niche modeling of disease spread, but few attempts were made to construct a theoretical frame for the ecological niche of pathogens. The paper is a review of the knowledge accumulated during last decades in the niche theory of pathogens and proposes an ecological approach in research. It quest for new control methods in what concerns forest plant pathogens, with a special emphasis on fungi like organisms of the genus Phytophthora. Species of Phytophthora are the most successful plant pathogens of the moment, affecting forest and agricultural systems worldwide, many of them being invasive alien organisms in many ecosystems. The hyperspace of their ecological niche is defined by hosts, environment and human interference, as main axes. To select most important variables within the hyperspace, is important for the understanding of the complex role of pathogens in the ecosystems as well as for control programs. Biotic relationships within ecosystem of host-pathogen couple are depicted by ecological network and specific metrics attached to this. The star shaped network is characterized by few high degree nodes, by short path lengths and relatively low connectivity, premises for a rapid disturbance spread.

  12. Ecological niche of plant pathogens

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ecaterina Fodor

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Disease ecology is a new approach to the understanding of the spread and dynamics of pathogens in natural and man-made environments. Defining and describing the ecological niche of the pathogens is one of the major tasks for ecological theory, as well as for practitioners preoccupied with the control and forecasting of established and emerging diseases. Niche theory has been periodically revised, not including in an explicit way the pathogens. However, many progresses have been achieved in niche modeling of disease spread, but few attempts were made to construct a theoretical frame for the ecological niche of pathogens. The paper is a review of the knowledge accumulated during last decades in the niche theory of pathogens and proposes an ecological approach in research. It quest for new control methods in what concerns forest plant pathogens, with a special emphasis on fungi like organisms of the genus Phytophthora. Species of Phytophthora are the most successful plant pathogens of the moment, affecting forest and agricultural systems worldwide, many of them being invasive alien organisms in many ecosystems. The hyperspace of their ecological niche is defined by hosts, environment and human interference, as main axes. To select most important variables within the hyperspace, is important the understanding of the complex role of pathogens in the ecosystems as well as for control programs. Biotic relationships within ecosystem of host-pathogen couple are depicted by ecological network and specific metrics attached to this. The star shaped network is characterized by few high degree nodes, by short path lengths and relatively low connectivity, premises for a rapid disturbance spread. 

  13. Use of ecological niche modeling as a tool for predicting the potential distribution of Microcystis sp (cyanobacteria in the Aguamilpa Dam, Nayarit, Mexico

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Enrique Martinez-Meyer

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Ecological niche modeling is an important tool to evaluate the spatial distribution of terrestrial species, however, its applicability has been little explored in the aquatic environment. Microcystis sp., a species of cyanobacteria, is widely recognized for its ability to produce a group of toxins known as microcystins, which can cause death of animals as fish, birds and mammals depending on the amount of toxin absorbed. Like any taxonomic group, cyanobacteria has environmental thresholds, therefore, a suitable ecological niche will define their distribution. This study was conducted in Aguamilpa Hydroelectric Reservoir, an artificial ecosystem that started operations in 1994. In this system we evaluated the potential distribution of Microcystis sp., by generating a prediction model based on the concept of ecological niche MAXENT, using a Digital Elevation Model in cells of 100 m x 100 m (1 ha spatial resolution and monitoring eleven physicochemical and biological variables and nutrients in water. The distribution maps were developed using ArcMap 9.2®. The results indicated that Microcystis sp., is distributed mainly in the upper tributary basin (Huaynamota basin during the dry season. There was less chance to find cyanobacteria in the entire system during the cold dry season, while during the warm dry season cyanobacteria was recognized at the confluence of two rivers. During the rainfall season there were no reports of cyanobacteria presence. This species is often associated with arising trophic processes of anthropogenic origin; therefore, attention is required in specific areas that have been identified in this work to improve Aguamilpa’s watershed management and restoration. It was also recognized the importance of phosphorus and nitrogen interaction, which determines the distribution of Microcystis sp., in the Aguamilpa Reservoir. The results of this study demonstrated that ecological niche modeling was a suitable tool to assess the

  14. Use of ecological niche modeling as a tool for predicting the potential distribution of Microcystis sp (cyanobacteria) in the Aguamilpa Dam, Nayarit, Mexico

    OpenAIRE

    Enrique Martinez-Meyer; Humberto Macias-Cuellar; José de Anda; Fernando A. González-Farias; Gabriel Rangel-Peraza; José Luis Ibarra-Montoya

    2012-01-01

    Ecological niche modeling is an important tool to evaluate the spatial distribution of terrestrial species, however, its applicability has been little explored in the aquatic environment. Microcystis sp., a species of cyanobacteria, is widely recognized for its ability to produce a group of toxins known as microcystins, which can cause death of animals as fish, birds and mammals depending on the amount of toxin absorbed. Like any taxonomic group, cyanobacteria has environmental thresholds, th...

  15. Profound Climatic Effects on Two East Asian Black-Throated Tits (Ave: Aegithalidae), Revealed by Ecological Niche Models and Phylogeographic Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Dai, Chuanyin; Zhao, Na; Wang, Wenjuan; Lin, Congtian; Gao, Bin; Yang, Xiaojun; Zhang, Zhengwang; Lei, Fumin

    2011-01-01

    Although a number of studies have assessed the effects of geological and climatic changes on species distributions in East Asian, we still have limited knowledge of how these changes have impacted avian species in south-western and southern China. Here, we aim to study paleo-climatic effects on an East Asian bird, two subspecies of black-throated tit (A. c. talifuensis–concinnus) with the combined analysis of phylogeography and Ecological Niche Models (ENMs). We sequenced three mitochondrial ...

  16. Hepatic stem cell niches

    OpenAIRE

    Kordes, Claus; Häussinger, Dieter

    2013-01-01

    Stem cell niches are special microenvironments that maintain stem cells and control their behavior to ensure tissue homeostasis and regeneration throughout life. The liver has a high regenerative capacity that involves stem/progenitor cells when the proliferation of hepatocytes is impaired. In recent years progress has been made in the identification of potential hepatic stem cell niches. There is evidence that hepatic progenitor cells can originate from niches in the canals...

  17. Global Carbon-Sink Sensitivity to Nitrogen: New Niches for Model-Data Symbiosis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muller, S. J.; Gerber, S.

    2011-12-01

    To predict global environmental change it is crucial to determine the response of primary production to "CO2 fertilization". Dynamic global land models (DGLMs) are used to predict this long-term carbon (C) sink, but considerable disparity exists between the results obtained from different models. Constraining this divergence is necessary to reduce the uncertainty in our projections. To this end, recent model refinements have attempted to account for the important role that nitrogen (N) limitation plays in primary productivity. However, DGLMs rely on vast amounts of data, and thus far the focus has been on C. There is consequentially a paucity of global N data to support model benchmarking and forcing. Ideally, we strive to use model simulations and data collection symbiotically; each benefiting the other, and reciprocating in turn. It would therefore be valuable to know which measurable N variables would support better benchmarking that also improves C-sink predictions. This work endeavors to identify the optimal choice of 1) benchmark data to better constrain long-term C-sink predictions, and 2) the variables that should be measured, or measured better, to support these benchmarks, with particular attention paid to N in both cases. Here we use LM3V, a state of the art DGLM with coupled C-N cycling, to determine which processes most strongly control long-term C-sink. Concurrent sensitivity analyses are being performed to identify which of the model variables commonly used in benchmarking, or under consideration for future benchmarking (i.e. N variables), exhibit sensitivities that correlate with those identified for C-sink. Preliminary results indicate that long-term C-sink is strongly affected by factors that determine input or retention of N, as well as stoichiometric relationships. This sensitivity is most apparent as a long-term cumulative effect. At shorter time-scales many of the model outputs commonly used in benchmarking show relative insensitivity to these

  18. Niche construction game cancer cells play

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bergman, Aviv; Gligorijevic, Bojana

    2015-10-01

    Niche construction concept was originally defined in evolutionary biology as the continuous interplay between natural selection via environmental conditions and the modification of these conditions by the organism itself. Processes unraveling during cancer metastasis include construction of niches, which cancer cells use towards more efficient survival, transport into new environments and preparation of the remote sites for their arrival. Many elegant experiments were done lately illustrating, for example, the premetastatic niche construction, but there is practically no mathematical modeling done which would apply the niche construction framework. To create models useful for understanding niche construction role in cancer progression, we argue that a) genetic, b) phenotypic and c) ecological levels are to be included. While the model proposed here is phenomenological in its current form, it can be converted into a predictive outcome model via experimental measurement of the model parameters. Here we give an overview of an experimentally formulated problem in cancer metastasis and propose how niche construction framework can be utilized and broadened to model it. Other life science disciplines, such as host-parasite coevolution, may also benefit from niche construction framework adaptation, to satisfy growing need for theoretical considerations of data collected by experimental biology.

  19. Modeling California policy impacts on greenhouse gas emissions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper examines policy and technology scenarios in California, emphasizing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in 2020 and 2030. Using CALGAPS, a new, validated model simulating GHG and criteria pollutant emissions in California from 2010 to 2050, four scenarios were developed: Committed Policies (S1), Uncommitted Policies (S2), Potential Policy and Technology Futures (S3), and Counterfactual (S0), which omits all GHG policies. Forty-nine individual policies were represented. For S1–S3, GHG emissions fall below the AB 32 policy 2020 target [427 million metric tons CO2 equivalent (MtCO2e) yr−1], indicating that committed policies may be sufficient to meet mandated reductions. In 2030, emissions span 211–428 MtCO2e yr−1, suggesting that policy choices made today can strongly affect outcomes over the next two decades. Long-term (2050) emissions were all well above the target set by Executive Order S-3-05 (85 MtCO2e yr−1); additional policies or technology development (beyond the study scope) are likely needed to achieve this objective. Cumulative emissions suggest a different outcome, however: due to early emissions reductions, S3 achieves lower cumulative emissions in 2050 than a pathway that linearly reduces emissions between 2020 and 2050 policy targets. Sensitivity analysis provided quantification of individual policy GHG emissions reduction benefits. - Highlights: • Developed CALGAPS, a new California greenhouse gas (GHG) policy evaluation model. • Three scenarios (plus counterfactual) developed, modeling 49 state/federal policies. • All scenarios achieve 2020 target; GHG emissions through 2030 span a factor of two. • No scenario achieves 2050 target, but cumulative emissions can be very low. • GHG impact of each policy (plus combinations) quantified in sensitivity analysis

  20. Ecological niche models for four native cockroach species (Blattaria: Blattellidae: Ectobiinae) in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ciliberti, P.; Jong, de H.; Schouten, M.A.; Verweij, P.A.; Heitmans, W.R.B.

    2009-01-01

    This paper aims at modelling the spatial distribution of the cockroach species Capraiellus panzeri, Ectobius lapponicus, Ectobius pallidus and Ectobius sylvestris within the Netherlands and comparing the habitat preferences of these species. Maxent was used to calculate habitat suitability and to id

  1. Finding niches for whole-farm design models - contradictio in terminis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sterk, B.; Ittersum, van M.K.; Leeuwis, C.; Rossing, W.A.H.; Keulen, van H.; Ven, van de G.W.J.

    2006-01-01

    Whole-farm design models quantitatively analyze the effects of a variety of potential changes at the farm system level. Science-driven technical information is confronted with value-driven objectives of farmers or other social groupings under explicit assumptions with respect to exogenous variables

  2. Refugia, colonization and diversification of an arid-adapted bird: coincident patterns between genetic data and ecological niche modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barrientos, Rafael; Kvist, Laura; Barbosa, Andrés; Valera, Francisco; Khoury, Fares; Varela, Sara; Moreno, Eulalia

    2014-02-01

    Phylogeographical studies are common in boreal and temperate species from the Palaearctic, but scarce in arid-adapted species. We used nuclear and mitochondrial markers to investigate phylogeography and to estimate chronology of colonization events of the trumpeter finch Bucanetes githagineus, an arid-adapted bird. We used 271 samples from 16 populations, most of which were fresh samples but including some museum specimens. Microsatellite data showed no clear grouping according to the sampling locations. Microsatellite and mitochondrial data showed the clearest differentiation between Maghreb and Canary Islands and between Maghreb and Western Sahara. Mitochondrial data suggest differentiation between different Maghreb populations and among Maghreb and Near East populations, between Iberian Peninsula and Canary Islands, as well as between Western Sahara and Maghreb. Our coalescence analyses indicate that the trumpeter finch colonized North Africa during the humid Marine Isotope Stage 5 (MIS5) period of the Sahara region 125 000 years ago. We constructed an ecological niche model (ENM) to estimate the geographical distribution of climatically suitable habitats for the trumpeter finch. We tested whether changes in the species range in relation to glacial-interglacial cycles could be responsible for observed patterns of genetic diversity and structure. Modelling results matched with those from genetic data as the species' potential range increases in interglacial scenarios (in the present climatic scenario and during MIS5) and decreases in glacial climates (during the last glacial maximum, LGM, 21 000 years ago). Our results suggest that the trumpeter finch responded to Pleistocene climatic changes by expanding and contracting its range. PMID:24215522

  3. Ecological Niche Modelling using satellite data for assessing distribution of threatened species Ceropegia bulbosa Roxb.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, S.; Kulloli, R. N.; Tewari, J. C.; Singh, J. P.; Singh, A.

    2014-11-01

    Ceropegia bulbosa Roxb. is a narrow endemic, tuberous twiner of Asclepiadaceae family. It is medicinally important: tubers are nutritive and edible, leaves are digestive and a cure for dysentery and diarrhea. Exploitation for its tubers and poor regeneration of this species has shrunk its distribution. In order to know its present status, we report here the results of its appraisal in Rajasthan, using remote sensing and ground truthing in the past five years (2009-14). A base map of C. bulbosa was prepared using Geographical Information System (GIS), open source software Quantum GIS, SAGA. The Landsat Enhanced Thematic Mapper (ETM) +Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER), Global Digital Elevation Model (GDEM) Satellite Data were used in this study. ASTER and GDEM Data was clipped with district boundary and provided color range to get elevation information. A digital elevation model of Rajasthan physiography was developed from ASTER GDEM of 30-m resolution. GIS layers of Area of occurrences for C. bulbosa plant and elevation were created. This map along with topographic sheets of 1:50000 were used for field traversing and ground truthing as per GPS location inferred from map. Its geographic distribution was assessed using MaxEnt distribution modelling algorithm that employed 12 presence locality data, 19 bioclimatic variables, and elevation data. Results of this modelling predicted occurrence of C. bulbosa in the districts of Sirohi, Jalore, Barmer, Pali, Ajmer, Jhalawar, Dungarpur, Banswara, Baran, Kota, Bundi and Chittorgarh. Ground validation in these districts revealed its presence only at four places in three districts confirming its rarity. Analysis of dominance at their sites of occurrence revealed their poor populations and sub dominant status (RIV = 20-32) and very low density (2-12 plants per tenth ha).

  4. Dangers of using global bioclimatic datasets for ecological niche modeling. Limitations for future climate projections

    OpenAIRE

    Bedia, Joaquín; Herrera, Sixto; Gutiérrez, José Manuel

    2013-01-01

    Global bioclimatic datasets are being widely used in ecological research to estimate the potential distribution of species using Climate Envelope Models (CEMs). These datasets are easily available and offer high resolution information for all land areas globally. However, they have not been tested rigorously in smaller regions, and their use in regional CEM studies may pose problems derived from their poor representation of local climate features. Moreover, these problems may be enhanced when...

  5. Modelling the ecological niche of hookworm in Brazil based on climate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ntombi B. Mudenda

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available The distribution of hookworm in schistosomiasis-endemic areas in Brazil was mapped based on climate suitability. Known biological requirements of hookworm were fitted to data in a monthly long-term normal climate grid (18 x 18 km using geographical information systems. Hookworm risk models were produced using the growing degree day (GDD water budget (WB concept. A moisture-adjusted model (MA-GDD was developed based on accumulation of monthly temperatures above a base temperature of 15 °C (below which there is no lifecycle progression of Necator americanus conditional on concurrent monthly values (rain/potential, evapotranspiration of over 0.4. A second model, designated the gradient index, was calculated based on the monthly accumulation of the product of GDD and monthly WB values (GDD x WB. Both parameters had a significant positive correlation to hookworm prevalence. In the northeastern part of Brazil (the Caatinga, low hookworm prevalence was due to low soil moisture content, while the low prevalence in southern Brazil was related to low mean monthly temperatures. Both environmental temperature and soil moisture content were found to be important parameters for predicting the prevalence of N. americanus.

  6. Modelling suitable estuarine habitats for Zostera noltii , using Ecological Niche Factor Analysis and Bathymetric LiDAR

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valle, Mireia; Borja, Ángel; Chust, Guillem; Galparsoro, Ibon; Garmendia, Joxe Mikel

    2011-08-01

    Predicting species distribution and habitat suitability is of considerable use in supporting the implementation of environmental legislation, protection and conservation of marine waters and ecosystem-based management. As other seagrasses, Zostera noltii has declined worldwide, mainly due to human pressures, such as eutrophication and habitat loss. In the case of the Basque Country (northern Spain), the species is present only in 3 out of 12 estuaries. From the literature, it is known that at least 6 of these estuaries were formerly vegetated by this seagrass. Consequently, efforts to monitor and restore (potential) habitats have been enhanced. Therefore, we aim: (i) to determine the main environmental variables explaining Zostera noltii distribution, within the Basque estuaries based upon the Oka estuary; (ii) to model habitat suitability for this species, as a wider applicable management-decision tool for seagrass restoration; and (iii) to assess the applicability and predicted accuracy of the model by using internal and external validation methods. For this purpose, Ecological Niche Factor Analysis (ENFA) has been used to model habitat suitability, based upon topographical variables, obtained from bathymetric Light Detection And Ranging (LiDAR); sediment characteristics variables; and hydrodynamic variables. The results obtained from the ecological factors of the ENFA (Marginality: 1.00; Specialization: 2.59) indicate that the species habitat differs considerably from the mean environmental conditions over the study area; likewise, that the species is restrictive in the selection of the range of conditions within which it dwells. The main environmental variables relating to the species distribution, in order of importance, are: mean grain size; redox potential; intertidal height; sediment sorting; slope of intertidal flat; percentage of gravels; and percentage of organic matter content. The model has a high predicted accuracy (Boyce index: 0.92). Model

  7. Kinetic modeling reveals a common death niche for newly formed and mature B cells.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gitit Shahaf

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: B lymphocytes are subject to elimination following strong BCR ligation in the absence of appropriate second signals, and this mechanism mediates substantial cell losses during late differentiation steps in the bone marrow and periphery. Mature B cells may also be eliminated through this mechanism as well as through normal turnover, but the population containing mature cells destined for elimination has not been identified. Herein, we asked whether the transitional 3 (T3 subset, which contains most newly formed cells undergoing anergic death, could also include mature B cells destined for elimination. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: To interrogate this hypothesis and its implications, we applied mathematical models to previously generated in vivo labeling data. Our analyses reveal that the death rate of T3 B cells is far higher than the death rates of all other splenic B cell subpopulations. Further, the model, in which the T3 pool includes both newly formed and mature primary B cells destined for apoptotic death, shows that this cell loss may account for nearly all mature B cell turnover. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: This finding has implications for the mechanism of normal mature B cell turnover.

  8. Supercooled Water Brines Within Permafrost-An Unknown Ecological Niche for Microorganisms: A Model for Astrobiology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gilichinsky, D.; Rivkina, E.; Shcherbakova, V.; Laurinavichuis, K.; Tiedje, J.

    2003-06-01

    This study describes brine lenses (cryopegs) found in Siberian permafrost derived from ancient marine sediment layers of the Arctic Ocean. The cryopegs were formed and isolated from sediment ~100,000-120,000 years ago. They remain liquid at the in situ temperature of -10°C as a result of their high salt content (170-300 g/L). [14C] Glucose is taken up by the cryopeg biomass at -15°C, indicating microbial metabolism at low temperatures in this habitat. Furthermore, aerobic, anaerobic heterotrophs, sulfate reducers, acetogens, and methanogens were detected by most probable number analysis. Two psychrophilic microbes were isolated from the cryopegs, a Clostridium and a Psychrobacter. The closest relatives of each were previously isolated from Antarctica. The cryopeg econiche might serve as a model for extraterrestrial life, and hence is of particular interest to astrobiology.

  9. 基于突变级数法的技术生态位评价模型%Evaluation Model of Technology Niche Based on Catastrophe Progression Method

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    张光宇; 刘贻新; 谢卫红; 李华军

    2012-01-01

    技术生态位理论为解决当前我国企业在技术创新能力的培育发展中遇到的难题提供了有力的理论支持,但对于采用何种方法、如何有效评价技术生态位的研究还比较缺乏。因此,文章在借助技术生态位理论和技术能力理论研究成果的基础上,依据突变级数法原理来构建技术生态位评价模型,并通过对2008年我国电子及通信设备制造业的国有企业和三资企业为例验证了所构建模型的合理性和科学性。%Technology niche theory provides solutions for problems faced within the process of culti- vating the technological innovative capabilities for enterprises nowadays with strong theoretical support. However, as for which method to take, and how to effectively evaluate technology niche, the relating re- search are badly needed. Therefore, this paper build technology niche evaluation model according to ca- tastrophe progression method and basis of theoretical research achievements on technology niche theory and technology. This paper also proves the rationality and science of models built in this paper by exam- ples of state-owned businesses of manufacturing industry of electronic and telecommunications equipment.

  10. Gastrospheres of human gastric mucosa cells: an in vitro model of stromal and epithelial stem cell niche reconstruction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santos, Carlos A N; Andrade, Leonardo R; Costa, Márcia H M; Souza, Heitor S P; Granjeiro, José M; Takiya, Christina M; Borojevic, Radovan; Nasciutti, Luiz E

    2016-08-01

    The molecular characterization of mechanisms involved in the gastrointestinal tract disorders needs an in vitro 3D culture model able to mimic the in vivo gastric microenvironment. Herein, we propose a 3D coculture system where gastric epithelial and stromal cells are grown together building spherical and solid structures using the NASA bioreactor - cell culture system (RCCS), a bioreactor. Epithelial and stromal cells from human antral gastric mucosa were isolated from endoscopic gastric biopsies. Thereafter, these cells were mechanically and enzymatically dispersed by treatment with dispase and collagenase, respectively. Using specific culture procedures, these cells formed 3D structures by using a RCCS, named "gastrospheres". Briefly, gastrospheres were obtained by initial seeding of 2.5x10⁴ cells/well in 96 well culture plates. At 24 h after their formation, they were transferred into RCCS, and maintained for 7, 14, 21, and 28 days. The gastrospheres were morphologically characterized by immunocytochemisty to evaluate extracellular matrix (ECM), and by electron microscopy. These analysis of gastrospheres revealed that the epithelial cells were cytokeratin (CK) and lectin reactive and were arranged in the outer layer; stromal cells presented long cytoplasmic processes and were localized inside the gastrosphere. They were vimentin (VIM) and α-smooth muscle actin (α-SMA) positive and expressed ECM components such as laminin (LN), fibronectin (FN), and type IV collagen (CIV). Electron microscopy revealed groups of cohesive gastric cells surrounded by complex stromal structures, with multiple microvilli, and tight cellular junctions interspersed with extracellular matrix fibrils and fibers. The presence of some nestin-positive cells was observed in the inner region of the gastrospheres, suggesting an intermediary localization between epithelial and stromal cells. Altogether, our data suggest that in vitro gastrospheres recapitulate the in vivo gastric niche

  11. Selecting a Conservation Surrogate Species for Small Fragmented Habitats Using Ecological Niche Modelling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Anne-Isola Nekaris

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Flagship species are traditionally large, charismatic animals used to rally conservation efforts. Accepted flagship definitions suggest they need only fulfil a strategic role, unlike umbrella species that are used to shelter cohabitant taxa. The criteria used to select both flagship and umbrella species may not stand up in the face of dramatic forest loss, where remaining fragments may only contain species that do not suit either set of criteria. The Cinderella species concept covers aesthetically pleasing and overlooked species that fulfil the criteria of flagships or umbrellas. Such species are also more likely to occur in fragmented habitats. We tested Cinderella criteria on mammals in the fragmented forests of the Sri Lankan Wet Zone. We selected taxa that fulfilled both strategic and ecological roles. We created a shortlist of ten species, and from a survey of local perceptions highlighted two finalists. We tested these for umbrella characteristics against the original shortlist, utilizing Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt modelling, and analysed distribution overlap using ArcGIS. The criteria highlighted Loris tardigradus tardigradus and Prionailurus viverrinus as finalists, with the former having highest flagship potential. We suggest Cinderella species can be effective conservation surrogates especially in habitats where traditional flagship species have been extirpated.

  12. Selecting a Conservation Surrogate Species for Small Fragmented Habitats Using Ecological Niche Modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nekaris, K Anne-Isola; Arnell, Andrew P; Svensson, Magdalena S

    2015-01-01

    Flagship species are traditionally large, charismatic animals used to rally conservation efforts. Accepted flagship definitions suggest they need only fulfil a strategic role, unlike umbrella species that are used to shelter cohabitant taxa. The criteria used to select both flagship and umbrella species may not stand up in the face of dramatic forest loss, where remaining fragments may only contain species that do not suit either set of criteria. The Cinderella species concept covers aesthetically pleasing and overlooked species that fulfil the criteria of flagships or umbrellas. Such species are also more likely to occur in fragmented habitats. We tested Cinderella criteria on mammals in the fragmented forests of the Sri Lankan Wet Zone. We selected taxa that fulfilled both strategic and ecological roles. We created a shortlist of ten species, and from a survey of local perceptions highlighted two finalists. We tested these for umbrella characteristics against the original shortlist, utilizing Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) modelling, and analysed distribution overlap using ArcGIS. The criteria highlighted Loris tardigradus tardigradus and Prionailurus viverrinus as finalists, with the former having highest flagship potential. We suggest Cinderella species can be effective conservation surrogates especially in habitats where traditional flagship species have been extirpated. PMID:26479135

  13. Ecological niche modelling and differentiation between Rhodnius neglectus Lent, 1954 and Rhodnius nasutus Stål, 1859 (Hemiptera: Reduviidae: Triatominae in Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Taíza Almeida Batista

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Ecological niche modelling was used to predict the potential geographical distribution of Rhodnius nasutus Stål and Rhodnius neglectus Lent, in Brazil and to investigate the niche divergence between these morphologically similar triatomine species. The distribution of R. neglectus covered mainly the cerrado of Central Brazil, but the prediction maps also revealed its occurrence in transitional areas within the caatinga, Pantanal and Amazon biomes. The potential distribution of R. nasutus covered the Northeastern Region of Brazil in the semi-arid caatinga and the Maranhão babaçu forests. Clear ecological niche differences between these species were observed. R. nasutus occurred more in warmer and drier areas than R. neglectus. In the principal component analysis PC1 was correlated with altitude and temperature (mainly temperature in the coldest and driest months and PC2 with vegetation index and precipitation. The prediction maps support potential areas of co-occurrence for these species in the Maranhão babaçu forests and in caatinga/cerrado transitional areas, mainly in state of Piaui. Entomologists engaged in Chagas disease vector surveillance should be aware that R. neglectus and R. nasutus can occur in the same localities of Northeastern Brazil. Thus, the identification of bugs in these areas should be improved by applying morphometrical and/or molecular methods.

  14. Development of An Integrated Hydrologic Model in Yolo County, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liang, Y.; Taghavi, A.; Stevenson, M.; Najmus, S.

    2006-12-01

    To more efficiently use the Cache Creek flows and the groundwater basin as the sources of water supply and to restore the riparian ecosystem along the Cache Creek, Yolo County Flood Control and Water Conservation District (YCFCWCD) in Woodland, California plans to conduct the Cache Creek Groundwater Recharge and Recovery Program (CCGRRP). The concept of this program is to operate the groundwater basin to induce greater amounts of groundwater recharge from Cache Creek directly along the creek and to increase the recharge even further by diverting rainy season water at the District's Capay Diversion Dam into the West Adams Canal to a few recharge basins outside the active channel of Cache Creek. Besides the CCGRRP, cities of Woodland and Davis are in the process of conducting groundwater management plans, and the stakeholders in Yolo County developing a long-term integrated regional water management plan (IRWMP) for the entire county. To effectively evaluate the benefits and impacts of CCGRRP, local groundwater management plans, and the Yolo County IRWMP, the Integrated Groundwater and Surface water Model (IGSM) was applied to the Yolo groundwater basin. The IGSM is a comprehensive integrated hydrologic model that simulates both surface water and groundwater flow systems, including rainfall-runoff, soil moisture accounting and unsaturated flow, crop consumptive module, stream-aquifer interaction, and groundwater flow. The finite element code was originally developed in 1990 for the California Department of Water Resources and the State Water Resources Control Board. The IGSM code has subsequently been applied to more than 25 groundwater basins in California and other states. The model code has been peer reviewed and upgraded throughout its application to various projects, with the latest upgrade in 2004, as part of the application to the Stony Creek Fan area of Sacramento Valley. The Yolo County IGSM (YCIGSM) was calibrated against the historical (1970

  15. Ecological niches of open ocean phytoplankton taxa

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brun, Philipp Georg; Vogt, Meike; Payne, Mark;

    2015-01-01

    We characterize the realized ecological niches of 133 phytoplankton taxa in the open ocean based on observations from the MAREDAT initiative and a statistical species distribution model (MaxEnt). The models find that the physical conditions (mixed layer depth, temperature, light) govern large...... conditions in the open ocean. Our estimates of the realized niches roughly match the predictions of Reynolds' C-S-R model for the global ocean, namely that taxa classified as nutrient stress tolerant have niches at lower nutrient and higher irradiance conditions than light stress tolerant taxa. Yet......-scale patterns in phytoplankton biogeography over nutrient availability. Strongest differences in the realized niche centers were found between diatoms and coccolithophores. Diatoms (87 species) occur in habitats with significantly lower temperatures, light intensity and salinity, with deeper mixed layers...

  16. Predicting the distribution of a parasite using the ecological niche model, GARP Predicción de la distribución de un parásito usando el modelo de nicho ecológico, GARP

    OpenAIRE

    Terry R. Haverkost; Scott L. Gardner; A. Townsend Peterson

    2010-01-01

    The ecological niche of a parasite exists only at the nexus of certain abiotic and biotic conditions suitable for both the definitive and intermediate hosts. However, the life cycles of most parasites are not known, or are poorly known, and using known ranges of hosts to find endemic parasitic infections has been difficult. However, with ecological niche modeling, we can create potential range maps using known localities of infection. Testing the validity of such maps requires knowledge of th...

  17. Modeling Species Distribution Using Niche-Based Proxies Derived from Composite Bioclimatic Variables and MODIS NDVI

    OpenAIRE

    Hannes Feilhauer; He, Kate S.; Duccio Rocchini

    2012-01-01

    Vegetation mapping based on niche theory has proven useful in understanding the rules governing species assembly at various spatial scales. Remote-sensing derived distribution maps depicting occurrences of target species are frequently based on biophysical and biochemical properties of species. However, environmental conditions, such as climatic variables, also affect spectral signals simultaneously. Further, climatic variables are the major drivers of species distribution at macroscales. The...

  18. Korarchaeota diversity, biogeography, and abundance in Yellowstone and Great Basin hot springs and ecological niche modeling based on machine learning.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robin L Miller-Coleman

    Full Text Available Over 100 hot spring sediment samples were collected from 28 sites in 12 areas/regions, while recording as many coincident geochemical properties as feasible (>60 analytes. PCR was used to screen samples for Korarchaeota 16S rRNA genes. Over 500 Korarchaeota 16S rRNA genes were screened by RFLP analysis and 90 were sequenced, resulting in identification of novel Korarchaeota phylotypes and exclusive geographical variants. Korarchaeota diversity was low, as in other terrestrial geothermal systems, suggesting a marine origin for Korarchaeota with subsequent niche-invasion into terrestrial systems. Korarchaeota endemism is consistent with endemism of other terrestrial thermophiles and supports the existence of dispersal barriers. Korarchaeota were found predominantly in >55°C springs at pH 4.7-8.5 at concentrations up to 6.6×10(6 16S rRNA gene copies g(-1 wet sediment. In Yellowstone National Park (YNP, Korarchaeota were most abundant in springs with a pH range of 5.7 to 7.0. High sulfate concentrations suggest these fluids are influenced by contributions from hydrothermal vapors that may be neutralized to some extent by mixing with water from deep geothermal sources or meteoric water. In the Great Basin (GB, Korarchaeota were most abundant at spring sources of pH<7.2 with high particulate C content and high alkalinity, which are likely to be buffered by the carbonic acid system. It is therefore likely that at least two different geological mechanisms in YNP and GB springs create the neutral to mildly acidic pH that is optimal for Korarchaeota. A classification support vector machine (C-SVM trained on single analytes, two analyte combinations, or vectors from non-metric multidimensional scaling models was able to predict springs as Korarchaeota-optimal or sub-optimal habitats with accuracies up to 95%. To our knowledge, this is the most extensive analysis of the geochemical habitat of any high-level microbial taxon and the first application of a C

  19. A costing model for offshore decommissioning in California.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bressler, Andrew; Bernstein, Brock B

    2015-10-01

    California's 27 offshore oil and gas platforms will reach the end of their useful lifetimes sometime in the near future and will require decommissioning. Although existing leases require complete removal of all platforms and associated infrastructure, the underlying laws and regulations have changed in recent years to allow a number of alternative uses after decommissioning. In particular, AB 2503, signed into law in September 2010, provides for a rigs-to-reefs program that allows the state to accept ownership of decommissioned platforms in federal waters. Decisions about whether to remove platforms completely or leave them in place as artificial reefs will depend in part on the relative cost of the 2 options. In this study, we describe the design and use of a mathematical decision model that provides detailed cost estimates of complete and partial removal (to 85 feet below the water line) for California's offshore platforms. The model, PLATFORM, is loaded with Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement (BSEE) and Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) costs for complete removal, along with costs for partial removal calculated for this study and estimates of the uncertainty associated with decommissioning cost estimates. PLATFORM allows users to define a wide range of decommissioning and costing scenarios (e.g., number of platforms, choice of heavy lift vessel, shell mound removal, reef enhancement). As a benchmark cost, complete removal of all 27 offshore platforms, grouped into the 7 decommissioning projects defined by the most recent federal cost estimates produced in 2010, would cost an estimated $1.09 billion, whereas partial removal of these platforms, grouped into the same set of projects, would cost $478 million, with avoided costs of $616 million (with minor rounding). PMID:25914378

  20. Spatiotemporal modelling of ozone distribution in the State of California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bogaert, P.; Christakos, G.; Jerrett, M.; Yu, H.-L.

    This paper is concerned with the spatiotemporal mapping of monthly 8-h average ozone ( O3) concentrations over California during a 15-years period. The basic methodology of our analysis is based on the spatiotemporal random field (S/TRF) theory. We use a S/TRF decomposition model with a dominant seasonal O3 component that may change significantly from site to site. O3 seasonal patterns are estimated and separated from stochastic fluctuations. By means of Bayesian Maximum Entropy (BME) analysis, physically meaningful and sufficiently detailed space-time maps of the seasonal O3 patterns are generated across space and time. During the summer and winter months the seasonal O3 concentration maps exhibit clear and progressively changing geographical patterns over time, suggesting the existence of relationships in accordance with the typical physiographic and climatologic features of California. BME mapping accuracy can be superior to that of other techniques commonly used by EPA; its framework can rigorously assimilate useful data sources that were previously unaccounted for; the generated maps offer valuable assessments of the spatiotemporal O3 patterns that can be helpful in the identification of physical mechanisms and their interrelations, the design of human exposure and population health models, and in risk assessment. As they focus on the seasonal patterns, the maps are not contingent on short-time and locally prevalent weather conditions, which are of no interest in a global and non-forecasting framework. Moreover, the maps offer valuable insight about the space-time O3 concentration patterns and are, thus, helpful for disentangling the influence of explanatory factors or even for identifying some influential ones that could have been otherwise overlooked.

  1. Artificial Stem Cell Niches

    OpenAIRE

    Lutolf, Matthias P.; Blau, Helen M.

    2009-01-01

    Stem cells are characterized by their dual ability to reproduce themselves (self-renew) and specialize (differentiate), yielding a plethora of daughter cells that maintain and regenerate tissues. In contrast to their embryonic counterparts, adult stem cells retain their unique functions only if they are in intimate contact with an instructive microenvironment, termed stem cell niche. In these niches, stem cells integrate a complex array of molecular signals that, in concert with induced cell-...

  2. California Wintertime Precipitation in Regional and Global Climate Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Caldwell, P M

    2009-04-27

    In this paper, wintertime precipitation from a variety of observational datasets, regional climate models (RCMs), and general circulation models (GCMs) is averaged over the state of California (CA) and compared. Several averaging methodologies are considered and all are found to give similar values when model grid spacing is less than 3{sup o}. This suggests that CA is a reasonable size for regional intercomparisons using modern GCMs. Results show that reanalysis-forced RCMs tend to significantly overpredict CA precipitation. This appears to be due mainly to overprediction of extreme events; RCM precipitation frequency is generally underpredicted. Overprediction is also reflected in wintertime precipitation variability, which tends to be too high for RCMs on both daily and interannual scales. Wintertime precipitation in most (but not all) GCMs is underestimated. This is in contrast to previous studies based on global blended gauge/satellite observations which are shown here to underestimate precipitation relative to higher-resolution gauge-only datasets. Several GCMs provide reasonable daily precipitation distributions, a trait which doesn't seem tied to model resolution. GCM daily and interannual variability is generally underpredicted.

  3. From California dreaming to California data: Challenging historic models for landfill CH4 emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Improved quantification of diverse CH4 sources at the urban scale is needed to guide local greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation strategies in the Anthropocene. Herein, we focus on landfill CH4 emissions in California, challenging the current IPCC methodology which focuses on a climate dependency for land...

  4. Neutral biogeography and the evolution of climatic niches.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boucher, Florian C; Thuiller, Wilfried; Davies, T Jonathan; Lavergne, Sébastien

    2014-05-01

    Recent debate on whether climatic niches are conserved through time has focused on how phylogenetic niche conservatism can be measured by deviations from a Brownian motion model of evolutionary change. However, there has been no evaluation of this methodological approach. In particular, the fact that climatic niches are usually obtained from distribution data and are thus heavily influenced by biogeographic factors has largely been overlooked. Our main objective here was to test whether patterns of climatic niche evolution that are frequently observed might arise from neutral dynamics rather than from adaptive scenarios. We developed a model inspired by neutral biodiversity theory, where individuals disperse, compete, and undergo speciation independently of climate. We then sampled the climatic niches of species according to their geographic position and showed that even when species evolve independently of climate, their niches can nonetheless exhibit evolutionary patterns strongly differing from Brownian motion. Indeed, climatic niche evolution is better captured by a model of punctuated evolution with constraints due to landscape boundaries, two features that are traditionally interpreted as evidence for selective processes acting on the niche. We therefore suggest that deviation from Brownian motion alone should not be used as evidence for phylogenetic niche conservatism but that information on phenotypic traits directly linked to physiology is required to demonstrate that climatic niches have been conserved through time. PMID:24739191

  5. CCIEA data and model output - California Current Integrated Ecosystem Assessment

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The California Current Integrated Ecosystem Assessment (CCIEA) is a joint project between staff at the NWFSC, SWFSC, NMML, ONMS, and WCRO to provide managers and...

  6. Hidden Markov Models for Detecting Aseismic Events in Southern California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Granat, R.

    2004-12-01

    We employ a hidden Markov model (HMM) to segment surface displacement time series collection by the Southern California Integrated Geodetic Network (SCIGN). These segmented time series are then used to detect regional events by observing the number of simultaneous mode changes across the network; if a large number of stations change at the same time, that indicates an event. The hidden Markov model (HMM) approach assumes that the observed data has been generated by an unobservable dynamical statistical process. The process is of a particular form such that each observation is coincident with the system being in a particular discrete state, which is interpreted as a behavioral mode. The dynamics are the model are constructed so that the next state is directly dependent only on the current state -- it is a first order Markov process. The model is completely described by a set of parameters: the initial state probabilities, the first order Markov chain state-to-state transition probabilities, and the probability distribution of observable outputs associated with each state. The result of this approach is that our segmentation decisions are based entirely on statistical changes in the behavior of the observed daily displacements. In general, finding the optimal model parameters to fit the data is a difficult problem. We present an innovative model fitting method that is unsupervised (i.e., it requires no labeled training data) and uses a regularized version of the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm to ensure that model solutions are both robust with respect to initial conditions and of high quality. We demonstrate the reliability of the method as compared to standard model fitting methods and show that it results in lower noise in the mode change correlation signal used to detect regional events. We compare candidate events detected by this method to the seismic record and observe that most are not correlated with a significant seismic event. Our analysis

  7. Habitat suitability modelling reveals a strong niche overlap between two poorly known species, the broom hare and the Pyrenean grey partridge, in the north of Spain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Acevedo, Pelayo; Alzaga, Vanesa; Cassinello, Jorge; Gortázar, Christian

    2007-03-01

    In the present work, we derive a habitat suitability model of the broom hare and the Pyrenean grey partridge in the Cantabrian Mountains by using the Ecological Niche Factor Analysis. Both species are endemic to the northern of Iberian mountains, and because of the vulnerability of the hare to endangerment or extinction and because of the great interest in the partridge, this habitat requires specific conservation measures. Literature on these animals' biology and ecology is practically nonexistent. Habitat suitability analyses show that the hare and partridge occupy very similar ecological niches, characterized by a high percentage of broom and heather scrublands, high altitude and slope, and limited human accessibility. We have identified differences in habitat selection between the Pyrenean grey partridge and other subspecies of partridge present in central-northern Europe. Our results indicate a probable metapopulation structure for both the hare and partridge; however, according to our predictive maps, there is a high connectivity between suitable habitats. Current decline of traditional rural activities, such as mountain livestock, are affecting the mosaic landscape. This, in turn, enhances biodiversity in the area and, particularly, the viability of these valuable animal populations.

  8. Digital Elevation Model of Little Holland Tract, Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta, California, 2015

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — This product is a digital elevation model (DEM) for the Little Holland Tract in the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta, California based on U.S. Geological Survey...

  9. Physical oceanography - Developing end-to-end models of the California Current Large Marine Ecosystem

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The purpose of this project is to develop spatially discrete end-to-end models of the California Current LME, linking oceanography, biogeochemistry, food web...

  10. Evidence of climatic niche shift during biological invasion

    OpenAIRE

    Broennimann, Olivier; Urs A Treier; Müller-Schärer, Heinz; Thuiller, W.; Peterson, A. T.; Guisan, Antoine

    2007-01-01

    Niche-based models calibrated in the native range by relating species observations to climatic variables are commonly used to predict the potential spatial extent of species’ invasion. This climate matching approach relies on the assumption that invasive species conserve their climatic niche in the invaded ranges. We test this assumption by analysing the climatic niche spaces of Spotted Knapweed in western North America and Europe. We show with robust cross-continental data that a shift of th...

  11. Combining a climatic niche model of an invasive fungus with its host species distributions to identify risks to natural assets: Puccinia psidii Sensu Lato in Australia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Darren J Kriticos

    Full Text Available Puccinia psidii sensu lato (s.l. is an invasive rust fungus threatening a wide range of plant species in the family Myrtaceae. Originating from Central and South America, it has invaded mainland USA and Hawai'i, parts of Asia and Australia. We used CLIMEX to develop a semi-mechanistic global climatic niche model based on new data on the distribution and biology of P. psidii s.l. The model was validated using independent distribution data from recently invaded areas in Australia, China and Japan. We combined this model with distribution data of its potential Myrtaceae host plant species present in Australia to identify areas and ecosystems most at risk. Myrtaceaeous species richness, threatened Myrtaceae and eucalypt plantations within the climatically suitable envelope for P. psidii s.l in Australia were mapped. Globally the model identifies climatically suitable areas for P. psidii s.l. throughout the wet tropics and sub-tropics where moist conditions with moderate temperatures prevail, and also into some cool regions with a mild Mediterranean climate. In Australia, the map of species richness of Myrtaceae within the P. psidii s.l. climatic envelope shows areas where epidemics are hypothetically more likely to be frequent and severe. These hotspots for epidemics are along the eastern coast of New South Wales, including the Sydney Basin, in the Brisbane and Cairns areas in Queensland, and in the coastal region from the south of Bunbury to Esperance in Western Australia. This new climatic niche model for P. psidii s.l. indicates a higher degree of cold tolerance; and hence a potential range that extends into higher altitudes and latitudes than has been indicated previously. The methods demonstrated here provide some insight into the impacts an invasive species might have within its climatically suited range, and can help inform biosecurity policies regarding the management of its spread and protection of valued threatened assets.

  12. 生态位模型的模糊建模研究综述%Review of Niche Model Base on Fuzzymodeling

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    孙曦浩

    2015-01-01

    Niche theory is the basis for much ecological research.It is useful for further research for eco-system and community.Due to the uncertainty and complexity of ecosystem,it’s hard to quantifying the model.Fuzzy set theory is an efficient method for describing uncertainty and complexity,which had been widely used in communication,control financial and medical.In this paper,we proposed the niche model based on fuzzy modeling.Therefore,the advantage and disadvantage of each model are discussed.Finally, the direction and development of fuzzy modeling is also mentioned.%生态位概念是生态系统理论研究和实际应用中的基础,生态位模型是进一步讨论生态位系统和生物群落等热点问题的工具。但由于生态系统的不确定性和复杂性使得模型的量化存在困难。模糊系统理论是描述不确定性和复杂性的有效方法,被广泛应用于通信、控制、金融和医疗等领域。介绍了生态位模型的模糊建模方法,系统总结了生态位模糊建模的发展历程,并指出各个模型存在的优缺点。最后,对生态位模糊建模在生态学中发展的前景和方向进行展望。

  13. Ecological Niche Modelling Predicts Southward Expansion of Lutzomyia (Nyssomyia) flaviscutellata (Diptera: Psychodidae: Phlebotominae), Vector of Leishmania (Leishmania) amazonensis in South America, under Climate Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carvalho, Bruno M; Rangel, Elizabeth F; Ready, Paul D; Vale, Mariana M

    2015-01-01

    Vector borne diseases are susceptible to climate change because distributions and densities of many vectors are climate driven. The Amazon region is endemic for cutaneous leishmaniasis and is predicted to be severely impacted by climate change. Recent records suggest that the distributions of Lutzomyia (Nyssomyia) flaviscutellata and the parasite it transmits, Leishmania (Leishmania) amazonensis, are expanding southward, possibly due to climate change, and sometimes associated with new human infection cases. We define the vector's climatic niche and explore future projections under climate change scenarios. Vector occurrence records were compiled from the literature, museum collections and Brazilian Health Departments. Six bioclimatic variables were used as predictors in six ecological niche model algorithms (BIOCLIM, DOMAIN, MaxEnt, GARP, logistic regression and Random Forest). Projections for 2050 used 17 general circulation models in two greenhouse gas representative concentration pathways: "stabilization" and "high increase". Ensemble models and consensus maps were produced by overlapping binary predictions. Final model outputs showed good performance and significance. The use of species absence data substantially improved model performance. Currently, L. flaviscutellata is widely distributed in the Amazon region, with records in the Atlantic Forest and savannah regions of Central Brazil. Future projections indicate expansion of the climatically suitable area for the vector in both scenarios, towards higher latitudes and elevations. L. flaviscutellata is likely to find increasingly suitable conditions for its expansion into areas where human population size and density are much larger than they are in its current locations. If environmental conditions change as predicted, the range of the vector is likely to expand to southeastern and central-southern Brazil, eastern Paraguay and further into the Amazonian areas of Bolivia, Peru, Ecuador, Colombia and Venezuela

  14. Ecological Niche Modelling Predicts Southward Expansion of Lutzomyia (Nyssomyia flaviscutellata (Diptera: Psychodidae: Phlebotominae, Vector of Leishmania (Leishmania amazonensis in South America, under Climate Change.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bruno M Carvalho

    Full Text Available Vector borne diseases are susceptible to climate change because distributions and densities of many vectors are climate driven. The Amazon region is endemic for cutaneous leishmaniasis and is predicted to be severely impacted by climate change. Recent records suggest that the distributions of Lutzomyia (Nyssomyia flaviscutellata and the parasite it transmits, Leishmania (Leishmania amazonensis, are expanding southward, possibly due to climate change, and sometimes associated with new human infection cases. We define the vector's climatic niche and explore future projections under climate change scenarios. Vector occurrence records were compiled from the literature, museum collections and Brazilian Health Departments. Six bioclimatic variables were used as predictors in six ecological niche model algorithms (BIOCLIM, DOMAIN, MaxEnt, GARP, logistic regression and Random Forest. Projections for 2050 used 17 general circulation models in two greenhouse gas representative concentration pathways: "stabilization" and "high increase". Ensemble models and consensus maps were produced by overlapping binary predictions. Final model outputs showed good performance and significance. The use of species absence data substantially improved model performance. Currently, L. flaviscutellata is widely distributed in the Amazon region, with records in the Atlantic Forest and savannah regions of Central Brazil. Future projections indicate expansion of the climatically suitable area for the vector in both scenarios, towards higher latitudes and elevations. L. flaviscutellata is likely to find increasingly suitable conditions for its expansion into areas where human population size and density are much larger than they are in its current locations. If environmental conditions change as predicted, the range of the vector is likely to expand to southeastern and central-southern Brazil, eastern Paraguay and further into the Amazonian areas of Bolivia, Peru, Ecuador

  15. Ecological niche transferability using invasive species as a case study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miguel Fernández

    Full Text Available Species distribution modeling is widely applied to predict invasive species distributions and species range shifts under climate change. Accurate predictions depend upon meeting the assumption that ecological niches are conserved, i.e., spatially or temporally transferable. Here we present a multi-taxon comparative analysis of niche conservatism using biological invasion events well documented in natural history museum collections. Our goal is to assess spatial transferability of the climatic niche of a range of noxious terrestrial invasive species using two complementary approaches. First we compare species' native versus invasive ranges in environmental space using two distinct methods, Principal Components Analysis and Mahalanobis distance. Second we compare species' native versus invaded ranges in geographic space as estimated using the species distribution modeling technique Maxent and the comparative index Hellinger's I. We find that species exhibit a range of responses, from almost complete transferability, in which the invaded niches completely overlap with the native niches, to a complete dissociation between native and invaded ranges. Intermediate responses included expansion of dimension attributable to either temperature or precipitation derived variables, as well as niche expansion in multiple dimensions. We conclude that the ecological niche in the native range is generally a poor predictor of invaded range and, by analogy, the ecological niche may be a poor predictor of range shifts under climate change. We suggest that assessing dimensions of niche transferability prior to standard species distribution modeling may improve the understanding of species' dynamics in the invaded range.

  16. Ecological niche transferability using invasive species as a case study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernández, Miguel; Hamilton, Healy

    2015-01-01

    Species distribution modeling is widely applied to predict invasive species distributions and species range shifts under climate change. Accurate predictions depend upon meeting the assumption that ecological niches are conserved, i.e., spatially or temporally transferable. Here we present a multi-taxon comparative analysis of niche conservatism using biological invasion events well documented in natural history museum collections. Our goal is to assess spatial transferability of the climatic niche of a range of noxious terrestrial invasive species using two complementary approaches. First we compare species' native versus invasive ranges in environmental space using two distinct methods, Principal Components Analysis and Mahalanobis distance. Second we compare species' native versus invaded ranges in geographic space as estimated using the species distribution modeling technique Maxent and the comparative index Hellinger's I. We find that species exhibit a range of responses, from almost complete transferability, in which the invaded niches completely overlap with the native niches, to a complete dissociation between native and invaded ranges. Intermediate responses included expansion of dimension attributable to either temperature or precipitation derived variables, as well as niche expansion in multiple dimensions. We conclude that the ecological niche in the native range is generally a poor predictor of invaded range and, by analogy, the ecological niche may be a poor predictor of range shifts under climate change. We suggest that assessing dimensions of niche transferability prior to standard species distribution modeling may improve the understanding of species' dynamics in the invaded range. PMID:25785858

  17. Estimating Policy-Driven Greenhouse Gas Emissions Trajectories in California: The California Greenhouse Gas Inventory Spreadsheet (GHGIS) Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Greenblatt, Jeffery B.

    2013-10-10

    A California Greenhouse Gas Inventory Spreadsheet (GHGIS) model was developed to explore the impact of combinations of state policies on state greenhouse gas (GHG) and regional criteria pollutant emissions. The model included representations of all GHG- emitting sectors of the California economy (including those outside the energy sector, such as high global warming potential gases, waste treatment, agriculture and forestry) in varying degrees of detail, and was carefully calibrated using available data and projections from multiple state agencies and other sources. Starting from basic drivers such as population, numbers of households, gross state product, numbers of vehicles, etc., the model calculated energy demands by type (various types of liquid and gaseous hydrocarbon fuels, electricity and hydrogen), and finally calculated emissions of GHGs and three criteria pollutants: reactive organic gases (ROG), nitrogen oxides (NOx), and fine (2.5 ?m) particulate matter (PM2.5). Calculations were generally statewide, but in some sectors, criteria pollutants were also calculated for two regional air basins: the South Coast Air Basin (SCAB) and the San Joaquin Valley (SJV). Three scenarios were developed that attempt to model: (1) all committed policies, (2) additional, uncommitted policy targets and (3) potential technology and market futures. Each scenario received extensive input from state energy planning agencies, in particular the California Air Resources Board. Results indicate that all three scenarios are able to meet the 2020 statewide GHG targets, and by 2030, statewide GHG emissions range from between 208 and 396 MtCO2/yr. However, none of the scenarios are able to meet the 2050 GHG target of 85 MtCO2/yr, with emissions ranging from 188 to 444 MtCO2/yr, so additional policies will need to be developed for California to meet this stringent future target. A full sensitivity study of major scenario assumptions was also performed. In terms of criteria pollutants

  18. Gulf of California species and catch spatial distributions and historical time series - Developing end-to-end models of the Gulf of California

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The purpose of this project is to develop spatially discrete end-to-end models of the northern Gulf of California, linking oceanography, biogeochemistry, food web...

  19. Phylogeography of Arabidopsis halleri (Brassicaceae) in mountain regions of Central Europe inferred from cpDNA variation and ecological niche modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wasowicz, Pawel; Pauwels, Maxime; Pasierbinski, Andrzej; Przedpelska-Wasowicz, Ewa M; Babst-Kostecka, Alicja A; Saumitou-Laprade, Pierre; Rostanski, Adam

    2016-01-01

    The present study aimed to investigate phylogeographical patterns present within A. halleri in Central Europe. 1,281 accessions sampled from 52 populations within the investigated area were used in the study of genetic variation based on chloroplast DNA. Over 500 high-quality species occurrence records were used in ecological niche modelling experiments. We evidenced the presence of a clear phylogeographic structure within A. halleri in Central Europe. Our results showed that two genetically different groups of populations are present in western and eastern part of the Carpathians. The hypothesis of the existence of a glacial refugium in the Western Carpathians adn the Bohemian Forest cannot be rejected from our data. It seems, however, that the evidence collected during the present study is not conclusive. The area of Sudetes was colonised after LGM probably by migrants from the Bohemian Forest. PMID:26835186

  20. Phylogeographic analysis and environmental niche modeling of widespread shrub Rhododendron simsii in China reveals multiple glacial refugia during the last glacial maximum

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Yong LI; Hai-Fei YAN; Xue-Jun GE

    2012-01-01

    The phylogeography of common and widespread species can help us to understand the history of local flora and vegetation.Here,we study the semi-evergreen shrub Rhododendron simsii Planch.,which is found in most areas of current evergreen broad leaved forest in China.Two noncoding chloroplast DNA (cpDNA) regions(rpl20-rps12 and trnL-F) and three amplified fragment length polymorphism (AFLP) primer sets (E-AAC/M-CTA,E-AGC/M-CTA and E-AGG/M-CAT) were used to examine the phylogeographic pattern in relation to past (last glacial maximum) and present distributions based on ecological niche modeling.The cpDNA data revealed four phylogeographic groups (East,South,West,and North groups) corresponding to geographic regions.Molecular dating suggests that lineage diversification within species likely occurred during the mid-to-late Pleistocene.In contrast,the four main cpDNA phylogeographic groups were not supported by the AFLP dataset.The highest likelihood of the AFLP data was obtained when samples were clustered into three groups (K =3).However,these groupings did not correspond to separate geographic regions supported by cpDNA data.Both mismatch distribution analysis and environmental niche modeling (ENM) indicated that multiple glacial refugia were maintained across the range of Rhododendron simsii during the last glacial maximum,contrary to the previous hypothesis that subtropical broad leaved evergreen forests were forced to retreat southward as far as 25°N.The discordance between the patterns revealed by cpDNA and AFLP data indicate that localized postglacial range expansions may facilitate extensive gene flow between the major glacial refugia.

  1. Korarchaeota diversity, biogeography, and abundance in Yellowstone and Great Basin hot springs and ecological niche modeling based on machine learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller-Coleman, Robin L; Dodsworth, Jeremy A; Ross, Christian A; Shock, Everett L; Williams, Amanda J; Hartnett, Hilairy E; McDonald, Austin I; Havig, Jeff R; Hedlund, Brian P

    2012-01-01

    Over 100 hot spring sediment samples were collected from 28 sites in 12 areas/regions, while recording as many coincident geochemical properties as feasible (>60 analytes). PCR was used to screen samples for Korarchaeota 16S rRNA genes. Over 500 Korarchaeota 16S rRNA genes were screened by RFLP analysis and 90 were sequenced, resulting in identification of novel Korarchaeota phylotypes and exclusive geographical variants. Korarchaeota diversity was low, as in other terrestrial geothermal systems, suggesting a marine origin for Korarchaeota with subsequent niche-invasion into terrestrial systems. Korarchaeota endemism is consistent with endemism of other terrestrial thermophiles and supports the existence of dispersal barriers. Korarchaeota were found predominantly in >55°C springs at pH 4.7-8.5 at concentrations up to 6.6×10(6) 16S rRNA gene copies g(-1) wet sediment. In Yellowstone National Park (YNP), Korarchaeota were most abundant in springs with a pH range of 5.7 to 7.0. High sulfate concentrations suggest these fluids are influenced by contributions from hydrothermal vapors that may be neutralized to some extent by mixing with water from deep geothermal sources or meteoric water. In the Great Basin (GB), Korarchaeota were most abundant at spring sources of pHapplication of a C-SVM to microbial ecology. PMID:22574130

  2. Niching as a Macrostructural Procedure*

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rufus H. Gouws

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available

    Abstract: Niching is a macrostructural procedure of textual condensation which results in different dictionary articles being clustered into one textblock as subarticles headed by sublemmata. This article offers an identification and critical discussion of different types of niching. Examples from dictionaries are used to examine problems which dictionary users experience as a result of the application of niching. The emphasis is on problems regarding the search route of users via the outer access structure of dictionaries. A distinction is made between single niching and multiple niching. Different aspects of multiple niching receive attention, e.g. the use of remote and exclusively remote multiple niching. The focus is also on an increased degree of textual condensation resulting from these procedures as well as problems in the domain of the access structure. Attention is drawn to the influence of the inclusion of homonym pairs on the application of multiple niching. Problems arising from an inconsistent application of multiple niching are identified and solutions are suggested for these problems in order to enhance the quality of the lexicographic practice. It is shown that a user-driven dictionary would rather opt for the application of procedures of single niching and first level nesting instead of multiple niching.

    Keywords: EXCLUSIVELY REMOTE MULTIPLE NICHING, FIRST LEVEL NESTING, HETEROGENEOUS NICHING, HOMOGENEOUS NICHING, HYBRID NICHING, MULTIPLE NICHING, NESTING, NICHING, PARTIAL ARTICLE STRETCH, REMOTE NICHING, SINGLE NICHING, TEXTUAL CONDENSATION

    Opsomming: Nisting as 'n makrostrukturele prosedure. Nisting is 'n makrostrukturele teksverdigtingsprosedure waardeur woordeboekartikels in een teksblok as subartikels met sublemmata gegroepeer word. Hierdie artikel bevat 'n beskrywing en kritiese bespreking van verskillende tipes nisting. Aan die hand van woordeboekvoorbeelde word probleme wat gebruikers met die toepassing

  3. Adaptive divergence in experimental populations of Pseudomonas fluorescens. V. Insight into the niche specialist fuzzy spreader compels revision of the model Pseudomonas radiation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferguson, Gayle C; Bertels, Frederic; Rainey, Paul B

    2013-12-01

    Pseudomonas fluorescens is a model for the study of adaptive radiation. When propagated in a spatially structured environment, the bacterium rapidly diversifies into a range of niche specialist genotypes. Here we present a genetic dissection and phenotypic characterization of the fuzzy spreader (FS) morphotype-a type that arises repeatedly during the course of the P. fluorescens radiation and appears to colonize the bottom of static broth microcosms. The causal mutation is located within gene fuzY (pflu0478)-the fourth gene of the five-gene fuzVWXYZ operon. fuzY encodes a β-glycosyltransferase that is predicted to modify lipopolysaccharide (LPS) O antigens. The effect of the mutation is to cause cell flocculation. Analysis of 92 independent FS genotypes showed each to have arisen as the result of a loss-of-function mutation in fuzY, although different mutations have subtly different phenotypic and fitness effects. Mutations within fuzY were previously shown to suppress the phenotype of mat-forming wrinkly spreader (WS) types. This prompted a reinvestigation of FS niche preference. Time-lapse photography showed that FS colonizes the meniscus of broth microcosms, forming cellular rafts that, being too flimsy to form a mat, collapse to the vial bottom and then repeatably reform only to collapse. This led to a reassessment of the ecology of the P. fluorescens radiation. Finally, we show that ecological interactions between the three dominant emergent types (smooth, WS, and FS), combined with the interdependence of FS and WS on fuzY, can, at least in part, underpin an evolutionary arms race with bacteriophage SBW25Φ2, to which mutation in fuzY confers resistance. PMID:24077305

  4. 基于生态位适宜度模型的土地利用功能分区%Land-use functional regionalization based on niche-fitness model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    蒙莉娜; 郑新奇; 赵璐; 邓婧

    2011-01-01

    土地利用功能分区是土地利用总体规划中的重要内容.该研究以生态位理论为基础,从生态角度进行土地利用功能分区定量研究.该研究提出了土地利用生态位的概念,并从土地利用需求生态位和现实生态位的耦合关系,构建土地利用生态位适宜度模型,建立土地利用生态位适宜度评价因子体系,并以土地利用生态位适宜度评价结果为表征量,借助GIS技术对土地利用功能进行分区.通过对山东省济南市的案例研究,运用该技术方法进行的土地利用功能分区,结果更加优化和合理,验证了该模型的实用性.该研究从生态适宜角度为土地利用分区的定量化研究提供了新的技术方法.%Land-use regionalization is one of important contents of general land-use planning. Land-use functional regionalization was studied quantitatively based on niche theory in the paper. Firstly, the concept of land-use niche was proposed, and then land-use niche-fitness model was built based on the coupling relationship between requirement niche and realistic niche. Secondly, indices of land-use niche-fitness evaluation were constructed. Finally, taking the result of land-use niche-fitness evaluation as a criterion, land-use was regionalized based on GIS. Taking Jinan City as a study area, the results showed that the regionalization project was optimal and reasonable, andthe practicality of the model was verified. This work can provide a new technique for the similar research of land-use regionalization from a view of niche-fitness.

  5. Niche Formation in the Mashup Ecosystem

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael Weiss

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Mashups enable end-users to "mix and match" data and services available on the web to create applications. Their creation is supported by a complex ecosystem of i data providers who offer open APIs to users, ii users who combine APIs into mashups, and iii platforms, such as the ProgrammableWeb or Mashape, that facilitate the construction and publication of mashups. In this article, we argue that the evolution of the mashup ecosystem can be explained in terms of ecosystem niches anchored around hub or keystone APIs. The members of a niche are focused on an area of specialization (e.g., mapping applications and contribute their knowledge to the value proposition of the ecosystem as a whole. To demonstrate the formation of niches in the mashup ecosystem, we model groups of related mashups as species, and we reconstruct the evolution of mashup species through phylogenetic analysis.

  6. Evidence of climatic niche shift during biological invasion

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Broennimann, O.; Treier, Urs; Müller-Schärer, H.;

    2007-01-01

    Niche-based models calibrated in the native range by relating species observations to climatic variables are commonly used to predict the potential spatial extent of species' invasion. This climate matching approach relies on the assumption that invasive species conserve their climatic niche...... evidence that an invasive species can occupy climatically distinct niche spaces following its introduction into a new area. The models fail to predict the current invaded distribution, but correctly predict areas of introduction. Climate matching is thus a useful approach to identify areas at risk...... in the invaded ranges. We test this assumption by analysing the climatic niche spaces of Spotted Knapweed in western North America and Europe. We show with robust cross-continental data that a shift of the observed climatic niche occurred between native and non-native ranges, providing the first empirical...

  7. Evidence of climatic niche shift during biological invasion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Broennimann, O; Treier, U A; Müller-Schärer, H; Thuiller, W; Peterson, A T; Guisan, A

    2007-08-01

    Niche-based models calibrated in the native range by relating species observations to climatic variables are commonly used to predict the potential spatial extent of species' invasion. This climate matching approach relies on the assumption that invasive species conserve their climatic niche in the invaded ranges. We test this assumption by analysing the climatic niche spaces of Spotted Knapweed in western North America and Europe. We show with robust cross-continental data that a shift of the observed climatic niche occurred between native and non-native ranges, providing the first empirical evidence that an invasive species can occupy climatically distinct niche spaces following its introduction into a new area. The models fail to predict the current invaded distribution, but correctly predict areas of introduction. Climate matching is thus a useful approach to identify areas at risk of introduction and establishment of newly or not-yet-introduced neophytes, but may not predict the full extent of invasions. PMID:17594425

  8. Shifting Niches for Community Structure Detection

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grappiolo, Corrado; Togelius, Julian; Yannakakis, Georgios N.

    2013-01-01

    in complete networks, this approach seems to scale badly due to solutions with the wrong number of communities dominating the population. The new algorithm is based on a niching model, where separate compartments of the population contain candidate solutions with different numbers of communities. We...

  9. The Fluctuation Niche in Plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Classical approaches to niche in coexisting plants have undervalued temporal fluctuations. We propose that fluctuation niche is an important dimension of the total niche and interacts with habitat and life-history niches to provide a better understanding of the multidimensional niche space where ecological interactions occur. To scale a fluctuation niche, it is necessary to relate environmental constrictions or species performance not only to the absolute values of the usual environmental and eco physiological variables but also to their variances or other measures of variability. We use Mediterranean plant communities as examples, because they present characteristic large seasonal and inter annual fluctuations in water and nutrient availabilities, along an episodic-constant gradient, and because the plant responses include a number of syndromes coupled to this gradient.

  10. California Geriatric Education Center Logic Model: An Evaluation and Communication Tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Price, Rachel M.; Alkema, Gretchen E.; Frank, Janet C.

    2009-01-01

    A logic model is a communications tool that graphically represents a program's resources, activities, priority target audiences for change, and the anticipated outcomes. This article describes the logic model development process undertaken by the California Geriatric Education Center in spring 2008. The CGEC is one of 48 Geriatric Education…

  11. Niching as a Macrostructural Procedure*

    OpenAIRE

    Rufus H Gouws

    2011-01-01

    Abstract: Niching is a macrostructural procedure of textual condensation which results in different dictionary articles being clustered into one textblock as subarticles headed by sublemmata. This article offers an identification and critical discussion of different types of niching. Examples from dictionaries are used to examine problems which dictionary users experience as a result of the application of niching. The emphasis is on problems regarding the search route of users via th...

  12. Development of a State-Wide 3-D Seismic Tomography Velocity Model for California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thurber, C. H.; Lin, G.; Zhang, H.; Hauksson, E.; Shearer, P.; Waldhauser, F.; Hardebeck, J.; Brocher, T.

    2007-12-01

    We report on progress towards the development of a state-wide tomographic model of the P-wave velocity for the crust and uppermost mantle of California. The dataset combines first arrival times from earthquakes and quarry blasts recorded on regional network stations and travel times of first arrivals from explosions and airguns recorded on profile receivers and network stations. The principal active-source datasets are Geysers-San Pablo Bay, Imperial Valley, Livermore, W. Mojave, Gilroy-Coyote Lake, Shasta region, Great Valley, Morro Bay, Mono Craters-Long Valley, PACE, S. Sierras, LARSE 1 and 2, Loma Prieta, BASIX, San Francisco Peninsula and Parkfield. Our beta-version model is coarse (uniform 30 km horizontal and variable vertical gridding) but is able to image the principal features in previous separate regional models for northern and southern California, such as the high-velocity subducting Gorda Plate, upper to middle crustal velocity highs beneath the Sierra Nevada and much of the Coast Ranges, the deep low-velocity basins of the Great Valley, Ventura, and Los Angeles, and a high- velocity body in the lower crust underlying the Great Valley. The new state-wide model has improved areal coverage compared to the previous models, and extends to greater depth due to the data at large epicentral distances. We plan a series of steps to improve the model. We are enlarging and calibrating the active-source dataset as we obtain additional picks from investigators and perform quality control analyses on the existing and new picks. We will also be adding data from more quarry blasts, mainly in northern California, following an identification and calibration procedure similar to Lin et al. (2006). Composite event construction (Lin et al., in press) will be carried out for northern California for use in conventional tomography. A major contribution of the state-wide model is the identification of earthquakes yielding arrival times at both the Northern California Seismic

  13. Tenascins in stem cell niches.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chiquet-Ehrismann, Ruth; Orend, Gertraud; Chiquet, Matthias; Tucker, Richard P; Midwood, Kim S

    2014-07-01

    Tenascins are extracellular matrix proteins with distinct spatial and temporal expression during development, tissue homeostasis and disease. Based on their expression patterns and knockout phenotypes an important role of tenascins in tissue formation, cell adhesion modulation, regulation of proliferation and differentiation has been demonstrated. All of these features are of importance in stem cell niches where a precise regulation of growth versus differentiation has to be guaranteed. In this review we summarize the expression and possible functions of tenascins in neural, epithelial and osteogenic stem cell niches during normal development and organ turnover, in the hematopoietic and pro-inflammatory niche as well as in the metastatic niche during cancer progression. PMID:24472737

  14. Regionalizing High-standard Prime Farmland Based on Niche-fitness Suitability Model with Potential Construction%县域高标准基本农田建设潜力分区研究

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    郭凤玉; 马立军

    2014-01-01

    以生态位理论为基础,从生态位角度对高标准基本农田建设潜力进行定量研究。以河北省卢龙县为例,分析高标准基本农田建设需求生态位和现实生态位的耦合关系,从耕地的自然禀赋条件、基础设施与施工条件、立地条件3方面选取12个指标,构建高标准基本农田建设生态位适宜度模型,并借助GIS技术,对县域高标准基本农田建设进行潜力分区。%Based on niche theory. The potential construction of high-standard prime farmland in the aspect of ecology was studied. Taking Lulong County in Hebei Province as an example, the coupling relationship between construction niche and realistic niche was analyzed. A model of high-standard prime farmland construction niche with 12 indexes from 3 aspects with natural endowments of farmland, infrastructure and construction, and site condition was established. The county area was regionalized using GIS.

  15. The Co-opetition Model of International Shipping Hubs Based on Resource Niche Theory%基于资源位理论的国际航运中心合作竞争模型

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    郭敏辉; 蔡存强

    2011-01-01

    An International shipping hub is a shipping resource allocation center in nature. Shipping hubs' co-opeti-tion strategies under different resource niches play a key role for their developments. Michael Porter Diamond Model is applied to analyze international shipping resource allocation and the characteristics of all elements that determine the competitive power of shipping hubs. Based on their different inherent features, international shipping resources are divided into three categories: physical resource niche; soft resource niche and intermediary resource niche. It is found that since allocation modes of hard resource niche and soft resource niche of hubs are different, accordingly, the co-opetition strategies of shipping hubs should be different. The study of the co-opetition models of different shipping resource niches and the possible results could be a valuable strategic guideline for the establishment of Shanghai shipping hub.%国际航运中心的本质是航运资源配置中心,各航运中心在不同资源位领域的竞争合作关系,是其深层次发展的关键.通过将波特钻石理论应用于国际航运中心资源位要素模型的构建,系统分析了决定航运中心竞争力的各要素特征.根据其不同的本质特性,将航运资源分为硬资源位、中间资源位和软资源位.研究发现,航运硬资源位和软资源位配置的模式不同,对应各航运中心间的合作竞争策略也不同.对不同资源位领域各航运中心的合作竞争模型及可能结果的研究成果,可对上海国际航运中心的建设发展提供理论指导.

  16. Genetic diversity and ecological niche modelling of wild barley: refugia, large-scale post-LGM range expansion and limited mid-future climate threats?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joanne Russell

    Full Text Available Describing genetic diversity in wild barley (Hordeum vulgare ssp. spontaneum in geographic and environmental space in the context of current, past and potential future climates is important for conservation and for breeding the domesticated crop (Hordeum vulgare ssp. vulgare. Spatial genetic diversity in wild barley was revealed by both nuclear- (2,505 SNP, 24 nSSR and chloroplast-derived (5 cpSSR markers in 256 widely-sampled geo-referenced accessions. Results were compared with MaxEnt-modelled geographic distributions under current, past (Last Glacial Maximum, LGM and mid-term future (anthropogenic scenario A2, the 2080s climates. Comparisons suggest large-scale post-LGM range expansion in Central Asia and relatively small, but statistically significant, reductions in range-wide genetic diversity under future climate. Our analyses support the utility of ecological niche modelling for locating genetic diversity hotspots and determine priority geographic areas for wild barley conservation under anthropogenic climate change. Similar research on other cereal crop progenitors could play an important role in tailoring conservation and crop improvement strategies to support future human food security.

  17. Circumbinary Habitability Niches

    CERN Document Server

    Mason, Paul A; Cuartas-Restrepo, Pablo A; Clark, Joni M

    2014-01-01

    Binaries could provide the best niches for life in the galaxy. Though counterintuitive, this assertion follows directly from stellar tidal interaction theory and the evolution of lower mass stars. There is strong evidence that chromospheric activity of rapidly rotating young stars may be high enough to cause mass loss from atmospheres of potentially habitable planets. The removal of atmospheric water is most critical. Tidal breaking in binaries could help reduce magnetic dynamo action and thereby chromospheric activity in favor of life. We call this the Binary Habitability Mechanism (BHM), that we suggest allows for water retention at levels comparable to or better than Earth. We discuss novel advantages that life may exploit, in these cases, and suggest that life may even thrive on some circumbinary planets. We find that while many binaries do not benefit from BHM, high quality niches do exist for various combinations of stars between 0.55 and 1.0 solar masses. For a given pair of stellar masses, BHM operate...

  18. Monument og niche

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Juel-Christiansen, Carsten

    2009-01-01

    Introduktion til og uddrag af bogen: Monument og niche : den ny bys arkitektur / af Carsten Juel-Christiansen, 1985......Introduktion til og uddrag af bogen: Monument og niche : den ny bys arkitektur / af Carsten Juel-Christiansen, 1985...

  19. Low Frequency Waves Through the Gulf of California: Observations and Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flores-Morales, A. L.; Pares-Sierra, A.

    2007-05-01

    Long time series of sea surface temperature and surface height along the Mexican Pacific coast show that propagating coastal Kelvin waves, some cases propagate to the interior of the Gulf of California, while in some other cases they completely skip the gulf and the waves propagate through the gulf mouth to the western side of the peninsula de Baja California and to the north. Using satellite observations to identified events and a combination of numerical (ROMS) and analytical model, we investigate this phenomena focusing on discerning the set of conditions (mainly intensity and frequency of the waves) that determine which of these two main outcomes develops. Preliminary results are presented.

  20. A seamless, high-resolution digital elevation model (DEM) of the north-central California coast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foxgrover, Amy C.; Barnard, Patrick L.

    2012-01-01

    A seamless, 2-meter resolution digital elevation model (DEM) of the north-central California coast has been created from the most recent high-resolution bathymetric and topographic datasets available. The DEM extends approximately 150 kilometers along the California coastline, from Half Moon Bay north to Bodega Head. Coverage extends inland to an elevation of +20 meters and offshore to at least the 3 nautical mile limit of state waters. This report describes the procedures of DEM construction, details the input data sources, and provides the DEM for download in both ESRI Arc ASCII and GeoTIFF file formats with accompanying metadata.

  1. Activity Response to Climate Seasonality in Species with Fossorial Habits: A Niche Modeling Approach Using the Lowland Burrowing Treefrog (Smilisca fodiens)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Encarnación-Luévano, Alondra; Rojas-Soto, Octavio R.; Sigala-Rodríguez, J. Jesús

    2013-01-01

    The importance of climatic conditions in shaping the geographic distribution of amphibian species is mainly associated to their high sensitivity to environmental conditions. How they cope with climate gradients through behavioral adaptations throughout their distribution is an important issue due to the ecological and evolutionary implications for population viability. Given their low dispersal abilities, the response to seasonal climate changes may not be migration, but behavioral and physiological adaptations. Here we tested whether shifts in climatic seasonality can predict the temporal variation of surface activity of the fossorial Lowland Burrowing Treefrog (Smilisca fodiens) across its geographical distribution. We employed Ecological Niche Modeling (ENM) to perform a monthly analysis of spatial variation of suitable climatic conditions (defined by the July conditions, the month of greatest activity), and then evaluated the geographical correspondence of monthly projections with the occurrence data per month. We found that the species activity, based on the species' occurrence data, corresponds with the latitudinal variation of suitable climatic conditions. Due to the behavioral response of this fossorial frog to seasonal climate variation, we suggest that precipitation and temperature have played a major role in the definition of geographical and temporal distribution patterns, as well as in shaping behavioral adaptations to local climatic conditions. This highlights the influence of macroclimate on shaping activity patterns and the important role of fossorials habits to meet the environmental requirements necessary for survival. PMID:24244301

  2. Molecular phylogeography and ecological niche modelling of a widespread herbaceous climber, Tetrastigma hemsleyanum (Vitaceae): insights into Plio-Pleistocene range dynamics of evergreen forest in subtropical China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yi-Han; Jiang, Wei-Mei; Comes, Hans Peter; Hu, Feng Sheng; Qiu, Ying-Xiong; Fu, Cheng-Xin

    2015-04-01

    Warm-temperate evergreen (WTE) forest represents the typical vegetation type of subtropical China, but how its component species responded to past environmental change remains largely unknown. Here, we reconstruct the evolutionary history of Tetrastigma hemsleyanum, an herbaceous climber restricted to the WTE forest. Twenty populations were genotyped using chloroplast DNA sequences and nuclear microsatellite loci to assess population structure and diversity, supplemented by phylogenetic dating, ancestral area reconstructions and ecological niche modeling (ENM) of the species distributions during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and at present. Lineages in Southwest vs Central-South-East China diverged through climate/tectonic-induced vicariance of an ancestral southern range during the early Pliocene. Long-term stability in the Southwest contrasts with latitudinal range shifts in the Central-South-East region during the early-to-mid-Pleistocene. Genetic and ENM data strongly suggest refugial persistence in situ at the LGM. Pre-Quaternary environmental changes appear to have had a persistent influence on the population genetic structure of this subtropical WTE forest species. Our findings suggest relative demographic stability of this biome in China over the last glacial-interglacial cycle, in contrast with palaeobiome reconstructions showing that this forest biome retreated to areas of today's tropical South China during the LGM. PMID:25639152

  3. Model Curriculum Standards, Program Framework, and Process Guide for Industrial and Technology Education in California.

    Science.gov (United States)

    California State Dept. of Education, Sacramento. Div. of Career-Vocational Education.

    This three-section document contains the model curriculum standards, program framework, and process guide that will assist schools in California in providing career-vocational education programs that are responsive to a world marketplace characterized by constantly changing technology. The standards and frameworks can be implemented to provide a…

  4. California Bilingual Special Education Model Sites (1984-1986): Programs and Research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Echevarria-Ratleff, Jana; Graf, Victoria L.

    The paper, originally given at a 1986 Ethnic and Multicultural Symposium, reports the findings of school-based research in California to identify effective bilingual special education programs and instructional practices. The educational program at one model site (Azusa Unified School District) is described including the elementary school…

  5. Modeling and Optimization of Seawater Intrusion Barriers in Southern California Coastal Plain

    OpenAIRE

    Yeh, William W-G.; Bray, Ben

    2006-01-01

    A five-layered confined-unconfined flow and transport models are developed and calibrated for the Alamitos seawater intrusion barrier in Southern California. The conceptual model is based on the geological structure of the coastal aquifer system, and the key parameters in the flow and transport models are calibrated using field measurements of hydraulic conductivity as well as head and concentration observations. Because of the abundance of point measurements of hydraulic conductivity, the he...

  6. The niche of envy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Quintanilla, Laura; Jensen de López, Kristine M.

    2013-01-01

    .g., socio-cultural, psychological, and anthropological research. Finally, in the third section, we introduce a cross-cultural and developmental view of how envy is embodied. We briefly address and offer a critique of Klein’s psychoanalytic view and present recent results from our cross-cultural studies of......Envy is the religion of the mediocre. It comforts them, it responds to the worries that gnaw at them and finally it rots their souls, allowing them to justify their meanings and their greed until they believe these to be virtues.—Carlos Ruiz Zafón “The niche of envy” is a cross-disciplinary attempt...... to capture and understand the complex and self-conscious emotion of envy as unfolded within social relationships and cultural settings. One of our main interests concerns how children come to understand envy in ontogenesis. Accordingly, we review existing theoretical approaches to understanding envy...

  7. Intraspecific competition reduces niche width in experimental populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parent, Christine E; Agashe, Deepa; Bolnick, Daniel I

    2014-10-01

    Intraspecific competition is believed to drive niche expansion, because otherwise suboptimal resources can provide a refuge from competition for preferred resources. Competitive niche expansion is well supported by empirical observations, experiments, and theory, and is often invoked to explain phenotypic diversification within populations, some forms of speciation, and adaptive radiation. However, some foraging models predict the opposite outcome, and it therefore remains unclear whether competition will promote or inhibit niche expansion. We conducted experiments to test whether competition changes the fitness landscape to favor niche expansion, and if competition indeed drives niche expansion as expected. Using Tribolium castaneum flour beetles fed either wheat (their ancestral resource), corn (a novel resource) or mixtures of both resources, we show that fitness is maximized on a mixed diet. Next, we show that at higher population density, the optimal diet shifts toward greater use of corn, favoring niche expansion. In stark contrast, when beetles were given a choice of resources, we found that competition caused niche contraction onto the ancestral resource. This presents a puzzling mismatch between how competition alters the fitness landscape, versus competition's effects on resource use. We discuss several explanations for this mismatch, highlighting potential reasons why optimality models might be misleading. PMID:25505525

  8. Niche-based modelling as a tool for predicting the risk of alien plant invasions at a global scale

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Thuiller, W.; Richardson, D. M.; Pyšek, Petr; Midgley, G. F.; Hughes, G. O.; Rouget, M.

    2005-01-01

    Roč. 11, - (2005), s. 2234-2250. ISSN 1354-1013 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA206/03/1216 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z60050516 Keywords : bioclimatic modelling * biological invasions * risk assessment Subject RIV: EF - Botanics Impact factor: 4.075, year: 2005

  9. Predicting the potential environmental suitability for Theileria orientalis transmission in New Zealand cattle using maximum entropy niche modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lawrence, K E; Summers, S R; Heath, A C G; McFadden, A M J; Pulford, D J; Pomroy, W E

    2016-07-15

    The tick-borne haemoparasite Theileria orientalis is the most important infectious cause of anaemia in New Zealand cattle. Since 2012 a previously unrecorded type, T. orientalis type 2 (Ikeda), has been associated with disease outbreaks of anaemia, lethargy, jaundice and deaths on over 1000 New Zealand cattle farms, with most of the affected farms found in the upper North Island. The aim of this study was to model the relative environmental suitability for T. orientalis transmission throughout New Zealand, to predict the proportion of cattle farms potentially suitable for active T. orientalis infection by region, island and the whole of New Zealand and to estimate the average relative environmental suitability per farm by region, island and the whole of New Zealand. The relative environmental suitability for T. orientalis transmission was estimated using the Maxent (maximum entropy) modelling program. The Maxent model predicted that 99% of North Island cattle farms (n=36,257), 64% South Island cattle farms (n=15,542) and 89% of New Zealand cattle farms overall (n=51,799) could potentially be suitable for T. orientalis transmission. The average relative environmental suitability of T. orientalis transmission at the farm level was 0.34 in the North Island, 0.02 in the South Island and 0.24 overall. The study showed that the potential spatial distribution of T. orientalis environmental suitability was much greater than presumed in the early part of the Theileria associated bovine anaemia (TABA) epidemic. Maximum entropy offers a computer efficient method of modelling the probability of habitat suitability for an arthropod vectored disease. This model could help estimate the boundaries of the endemically stable and endemically unstable areas for T. orientalis transmission within New Zealand and be of considerable value in informing practitioner and farmer biosecurity decisions in these respective areas. PMID:27270395

  10. Predicting the past distribution of species climatic niches

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nogues, David Bravo

    2009-01-01

    Predicting past distributions of species climatic niches, hindcasting, by using climate envelope models (CEMs) is emerging as an exciting research area. CEMs are used to examine veiled evolutionary questions about extinctions, locations of past refugia and migration pathways, or to propose...... hypotheses concerning the past population structure of species in phylogeographical studies. CEMs are sensitive to theoretical assumptions, to model classes and to projections in non-analogous climates, among other issues. Studies hindcasting the climatic niches of species often make reference...... to these limitations. However, to obtain strong scientific inferences, we must not only be aware of these potential limitations but we must also overcome them. Here, I review the literature on hindcasting CEMs. I discuss the theoretical assumptions behind niche modelling, i.e. the stability of climatic niches through...

  11. Strategic Positioning of Goods in a Market with a Niche

    OpenAIRE

    Eleftherios Zacharias

    2013-01-01

    We use the Hotelling's model allowing for a "gap" in the consumers' preferences. As a result, the characteristics space is divided in two separate intervals. The largest one represents the main market, and the smallest represents a niche. We find that in this set up the principle of maximum differentiation may not hold. We also, examine the incentives of a firm to adopt a niche marketing strategy. That is, to relocate and price its product so that to maximize its profits from the niche market...

  12. The Impact of Water Quality on Southern California Beach Recreation: A Finite Mixture Model Approach

    OpenAIRE

    Hilger, James R.

    2006-01-01

    This dissertation uses a finite mixture logit (FML) model to investigate the heterogeneity of preferences of beach users for water quality at beaches in Southern California. The results are compared with conventional approaches based conditional logit (CL) and random parameters logit (RPL). The FML approach captures variation in preferences by modeling individual recreator choices using a mixture of several distinct preference groups, where group membership is a function of individual charact...

  13. Heterogeneous Preferences for Water Quality: A Finite Mixture Model of Beach Recreation in Southern California

    OpenAIRE

    Hilger, James; Hanemann, Michael

    2006-01-01

    This paper uses a finite mixture logit (FML) model to investigate the heterogeneity of preferences of beach users for water quality at beaches in Southern California. The results are compared with conventional approaches based conditional logit (CL) and random parameters logit (RPL). The FML approach captures variation in preferences by modeling individual recreator preferences as a mixture of several distinct preference groups, where group membership is a function of individual characteristi...

  14. The impact of water quality on southern california beach recreation : A Finite Mixture Model Approach

    OpenAIRE

    Hilger, James; Hanemann, W. Michael

    2008-01-01

    This paper uses a finite mixture logit (FML) model to investigate the heterogeneity of preferences of beach users for water quality at beaches in Southern California. The results are compared with conventional approaches based conditional logit (CL) and random parameters logit (RPL). The FML approach captures variation in preferences by modeling individual recreator choices using a mixture of several distinct preference groups, where group membership is a function of individual characteristic...

  15. Exploring climate niches of ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa Douglas ex Lawson) haplotypes in the western United States: Implications for evolutionary history and conservation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shinneman, Douglas; Means, Robert E.; Potter, Kevin M.; Hipkins, Valerie D.

    2016-01-01

    Ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa Douglas ex Lawson) occupies montane environments throughout western North America, where it is both an ecologically and economically important tree species. A recent study using mitochondrial DNA analysis demonstrated substantial genetic variation among ponderosa pine populations in the western U.S., identifying 10 haplotypes with unique evolutionary lineages that generally correspond spatially with distributions of the Pacific (P. p. var. ponderosa) and Rocky Mountain (P. p. var. scopulorum) varieties. To elucidate the role of climate in shaping the phylogeographic history of ponderosa pine, we used nonparametric multiplicative regression to develop predictive climate niche models for two varieties and 10 haplotypes and to hindcast potential distribution of the varieties during the last glacial maximum (LGM), ~22,000 yr BP. Our climate niche models performed well for the varieties, but haplotype models were constrained in some cases by small datasets and unmeasured microclimate influences. The models suggest strong relationships between genetic lineages and climate. Particularly evident was the role of seasonal precipitation balance in most models, with winter- and summer-dominated precipitation regimes strongly associated with P. p. vars. ponderosa and scopulorum, respectively. Indeed, where present-day climate niches overlap between the varieties, introgression of two haplotypes also occurs along a steep clinal divide in western Montana. Reconstructed climate niches for the LGM suggest potentially suitable climate existed for the Pacific variety in the California Floristic province, the Great Basin, and Arizona highlands, while suitable climate for the Rocky Mountain variety may have existed across the southwestern interior highlands. These findings underscore potentially unique phylogeographic origins of modern ponderosa pine evolutionary lineages, including potential adaptations to Pleistocene climates associated with

  16. Exploring Climate Niches of Ponderosa Pine (Pinus ponderosa Douglas ex Lawson) Haplotypes in the Western United States: Implications for Evolutionary History and Conservation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shinneman, Douglas J; Means, Robert E; Potter, Kevin M; Hipkins, Valerie D

    2016-01-01

    Ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa Douglas ex Lawson) occupies montane environments throughout western North America, where it is both an ecologically and economically important tree species. A recent study using mitochondrial DNA analysis demonstrated substantial genetic variation among ponderosa pine populations in the western U.S., identifying 10 haplotypes with unique evolutionary lineages that generally correspond spatially with distributions of the Pacific (P. p. var. ponderosa) and Rocky Mountain (P. p. var. scopulorum) varieties. To elucidate the role of climate in shaping the phylogeographic history of ponderosa pine, we used nonparametric multiplicative regression to develop predictive climate niche models for two varieties and 10 haplotypes and to hindcast potential distribution of the varieties during the last glacial maximum (LGM), ~22,000 yr BP. Our climate niche models performed well for the varieties, but haplotype models were constrained in some cases by small datasets and unmeasured microclimate influences. The models suggest strong relationships between genetic lineages and climate. Particularly evident was the role of seasonal precipitation balance in most models, with winter- and summer-dominated precipitation regimes strongly associated with P. p. vars. ponderosa and scopulorum, respectively. Indeed, where present-day climate niches overlap between the varieties, introgression of two haplotypes also occurs along a steep clinal divide in western Montana. Reconstructed climate niches for the LGM suggest potentially suitable climate existed for the Pacific variety in the California Floristic province, the Great Basin, and Arizona highlands, while suitable climate for the Rocky Mountain variety may have existed across the southwestern interior highlands. These findings underscore potentially unique phylogeographic origins of modern ponderosa pine evolutionary lineages, including potential adaptations to Pleistocene climates associated with discrete

  17. Exploring Climate Niches of Ponderosa Pine (Pinus ponderosa Douglas ex Lawson Haplotypes in the Western United States: Implications for Evolutionary History and Conservation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Douglas J Shinneman

    Full Text Available Ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa Douglas ex Lawson occupies montane environments throughout western North America, where it is both an ecologically and economically important tree species. A recent study using mitochondrial DNA analysis demonstrated substantial genetic variation among ponderosa pine populations in the western U.S., identifying 10 haplotypes with unique evolutionary lineages that generally correspond spatially with distributions of the Pacific (P. p. var. ponderosa and Rocky Mountain (P. p. var. scopulorum varieties. To elucidate the role of climate in shaping the phylogeographic history of ponderosa pine, we used nonparametric multiplicative regression to develop predictive climate niche models for two varieties and 10 haplotypes and to hindcast potential distribution of the varieties during the last glacial maximum (LGM, ~22,000 yr BP. Our climate niche models performed well for the varieties, but haplotype models were constrained in some cases by small datasets and unmeasured microclimate influences. The models suggest strong relationships between genetic lineages and climate. Particularly evident was the role of seasonal precipitation balance in most models, with winter- and summer-dominated precipitation regimes strongly associated with P. p. vars. ponderosa and scopulorum, respectively. Indeed, where present-day climate niches overlap between the varieties, introgression of two haplotypes also occurs along a steep clinal divide in western Montana. Reconstructed climate niches for the LGM suggest potentially suitable climate existed for the Pacific variety in the California Floristic province, the Great Basin, and Arizona highlands, while suitable climate for the Rocky Mountain variety may have existed across the southwestern interior highlands. These findings underscore potentially unique phylogeographic origins of modern ponderosa pine evolutionary lineages, including potential adaptations to Pleistocene climates associated

  18. Sustainability of Human Ecological Niche Construction

    OpenAIRE

    Forest Isbell; Michel Loreau

    2014-01-01

    Humans influence and depend on natural systems worldwide, creating complex societal-ecological feedbacks that make it difficult to assess the long-term sustainability of contemporary human activities. We use ecological niche theory to consider the short-term (transient) and long-term (equilibrium) effects of improvements in health, agriculture, or efficiency on the abundances of humans, our plant and animal resources, and our natural enemies. We also consider special cases of our model where ...

  19. Profound climatic effects on two East Asian black-throated tits (Ave: Aegithalidae, revealed by ecological niche models and phylogeographic analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chuanyin Dai

    Full Text Available Although a number of studies have assessed the effects of geological and climatic changes on species distributions in East Asian, we still have limited knowledge of how these changes have impacted avian species in south-western and southern China. Here, we aim to study paleo-climatic effects on an East Asian bird, two subspecies of black-throated tit (A. c. talifuensis-concinnus with the combined analysis of phylogeography and Ecological Niche Models (ENMs. We sequenced three mitochondrial DNA markers from 32 populations (203 individuals and used phylogenetic inferences to reconstruct the intra-specific relationships among haplotypes. Population genetic analyses were undertaken to gain insight into the demographic history of these populations. We used ENMs to predict the distribution of target species during three periods; last inter-glacial (LIG, last glacial maximum (LGM and present. We found three highly supported, monophyletic MtDNA lineages and different historical demography among lineages in A. c. talifuensis-concinnus. These lineages formed a narrowly circumscribed intra-specific contact zone. The estimated times of lineage divergences were about 2.4 Ma and 0.32 Ma respectively. ENMs predictions were similar between present and LGM but substantially reduced during LIG. ENMs reconstructions and molecular dating suggest that Pleistocene climate changes had triggered and shaped the genetic structure of black-throated tit. Interestingly, in contrast to profound impacts of other glacial cycles, ENMs and phylogeographic analysis suggest that LGM had limited effect on these two subspecies. ENMs also suggest that Pleistocene climatic oscillations enabled the formation of the contact zone and thus support the refuge theory.

  20. Circum-Mediterranean phylogeography of a bat coupled with past environmental niche modeling: A new paradigm for the recolonization of Europe?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bilgin, Raşit; Gürün, Kanat; Rebelo, Hugo; Puechmaille, Sebastien J; Maracı, Öncü; Presetnik, Primoz; Benda, Petr; Hulva, Pavel; Ibáñez, Carlos; Hamidovic, Daniela; Fressel, Norma; Horáček, Ivan; Karataş, Ayşegül; Karataş, Ahmet; Allegrini, Benjamin; Georgiakakis, Panagiotis; Gazaryan, Suren; Nagy, Zoltan L; Abi-Said, Mounir; Lučan, Radek K; Bartonička, Tomáš; Nicolaou, Haris; Scaravelli, Dino; Karapandža, Branko; Uhrin, Marcel; Paunović, Milan; Juste, Javier

    2016-06-01

    The isolation of populations in the Iberian, Italian and Balkan peninsulas during the ice ages define four main paradigms that explain much of the known distribution of intraspecific genetic diversity in Europe. In this study we investigated the phylogeography of a wide-spread bat species, the bent-winged bat, Miniopterus schreibersii around the Mediterranean basin and in the Caucasus. Environmental Niche Modeling (ENM) analysis was applied to predict both the current distribution of the species and its distribution during the last glacial maximum (LGM). The combination of genetics and ENM results suggest that the populations of M. schreibersii in Europe, the Caucasus and Anatolia went extinct during the LGM, and the refugium for the species was a relatively small area to the east of the Levantine Sea, corresponding to the Mediterranean coasts of present-day Syria, Lebanon, Israel, and northeastern and northwestern Egypt. Subsequently the species first repopulated Anatolia, diversified there, and afterwards expanded into the Caucasus, continental Europe and North Africa after the end of the LGM. The fossil record in Iberia and the ENM results indicate continuous presence of Miniopterus in this peninsula that most probably was related to the Maghrebian lineage during the LGM, which did not persist afterwards. Using our results combined with similar findings in previous studies, we propose a new paradigm explaining the general distribution of genetic diversity in Europe involving the recolonization of the continent, with the main contribution from refugial populations in Anatolia and the Middle East. The study shows how genetics and ENM approaches can complement each other in providing a more detailed picture of intraspecific evolution. PMID:27001602

  1. Impacts of WRF Physics and Measurement Uncertainty on California Wintertime Model Wet Bias

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chin, H S; Caldwell, P M; Bader, D C

    2009-07-22

    The Weather and Research Forecast (WRF) model version 3.0.1 is used to explore California wintertime model wet bias. In this study, two wintertime storms are selected from each of four major types of large-scale conditions; Pineapple Express, El Nino, La Nina, and synoptic cyclones. We test the impacts of several model configurations on precipitation bias through comparison with three sets of gridded surface observations; one from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration, and two variations from the University of Washington (without and with long-term trend adjustment; UW1 and UW2, respectively). To simplify validation, California is divided into 4 regions (Coast, Central Valley, Mountains, and Southern California). Simulations are driven by North American Regional Reanalysis data to minimize large-scale forcing error. Control simulations are conducted with 12-km grid spacing (low resolution) but additional experiments are performed at 2-km (high) resolution to evaluate the robustness of microphysics and cumulus parameterizations to resolution changes. We find that the choice of validation dataset has a significant impact on the model wet bias, and the forecast skill of model precipitation depends strongly on geographic location and storm type. Simulations with right physics options agree better with UW1 observations. In 12-km resolution simulations, the Lin microphysics and the Kain-Fritsch cumulus scheme have better forecast skill in the coastal region while Goddard, Thompson, and Morrison microphysics, and the Grell-Devenyi cumulus scheme perform better in the rest of California. The effect of planetary boundary layer, soil-layer, and radiation physics on model precipitation is weaker than that of microphysics and cumulus processes for short- to medium-range low-resolution simulations. Comparison of 2-km and 12-km resolution runs suggests a need for improvement of cumulus schemes, and supports the use of microphysics schemes in coarser

  2. Energy Use in California Wholesale Water Operations: Development and Application of a General Energy Post-Processor for California Water Management Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bates, Matthew Earl

    This thesis explores the effects of future water and social conditions on energy consumption in the major pumping and generation facilities of California's interconnected water-delivery system, with particular emphasis on the federally owned Central Valley Project, California-owned State Water Project, and the large locally owned systems in Southern California. Anticipated population growth, technological advancement, climatic changes, urban water conservation, and restrictions of through-Delta pumping will together affect the energy used for water operations and alter statewide water deliveries in complex ways that are often opposing and difficult to predict. Flow modeling with detailed statewide water models is necessary, and the CALVIN economic-engineering optimization model of California's interconnected water-delivery system is used to model eight future water-supply scenarios. Model results detail potential water-delivery patterns for the year 2050, but do not explicitly show the energy impacts of the modeled water operations. Energy analysis of flow results is accomplished with the UC Davis General Energy Post-Processor, a new tool for California water models that generalizes previous efforts at energy modeling and extends embedded-energy analysis to additional models and scenarios. Energy-intensity data come from existing energy post-processors for CalSim II and a recent embedded-energy-in-water study prepared by GEI Consultants and Navigant Consulting for the California Public Utilities Commission. Differences in energy consumption are assessed between modeled scenarios, and comparisons are made between data sources, with implications for future water and energy planning strategies and future modeling efforts. Results suggest that the effects of climate warming on water-delivery energy use could be relatively minimal, that the effects of a 50% reduction in Delta exports can be largely offset by 30% urban water conservation, and that a 30% conservation in

  3. The pitfalls of niche marketing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raynor, M E

    1992-01-01

    Corporate marketers have jumped on the micromarketing bandwagon, but many have discovered that the path to profits contains a number of potholes. This article details three companies' niche marketing mistakes; the author suggests how to avoid them. PMID:10117142

  4. Ecological niche of plant pathogens

    OpenAIRE

    Ecaterina Fodor

    2011-01-01

    Disease ecology is a new approach to the understanding of the spread and dynamics of pathogens in natural and man-made environments. Defining and describing the ecological niche of the pathogens is one of the major tasks for ecological theory, as well as for practitioners preoccupied with the control and forecasting of established and emerging diseases. Niche theory has been periodically revised, not including in an explicit way the pathogens. However, many progresses have been achieved in ni...

  5. Intraspecific competition reduces niche width in experimental populations

    OpenAIRE

    Parent, Christine E; Agashe, Deepa; Bolnick, Daniel I

    2014-01-01

    Intraspecific competition is believed to drive niche expansion, because otherwise suboptimal resources can provide a refuge from competition for preferred resources. Competitive niche expansion is well supported by empirical observations, experiments, and theory, and is often invoked to explain phenotypic diversification within populations, some forms of speciation, and adaptive radiation. However, some foraging models predict the opposite outcome, and it therefore remains unclear whether com...

  6. Modeling Water and Sediment Quality in Two California Bays

    OpenAIRE

    Stolzenbach, Keith; McWilliams, James

    2002-01-01

    While polluted coastal bays have often been studied observationally, less effort has focused on developing computer models that simulate the processes that disperse, depositand resuspend pollution and contaminants on the seabed. Such models would not only help interpret observational data but would also benefit resource managers charged with upholding state and federal clean water laws.

  7. 基于GIS和NFM的鄱阳湖地区经济林地的适宜性评价%Niche-Fitness Model into Multi-Suitability Evaluation of Economic Forest Based on GIS in Poyang Lake Region

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    李晋明; 赵小敏; 乐丽红

    2012-01-01

    The paper took forest in Poyang Lake region for case to study the suitability evaluation by introducing the Niche-fitness theory and Kriging method. The weight average model was used to quantitative analysis the niche-fitnesa and restrictive factors for growth of Camellia oleifera and Cunninghamia lanceolata. The results show that the niche-fitness value in the region is in medium and the suitability for growth of economy forests is strong. The ratio of land suitability in grade 1 and 2 for Camellia ohifera planting to forest land is account for 79.51% , grade 2 and 3 for Cunninghamia lanceolata account for 70. 07% . In terms of comprehensive suitability evaluation result, Camellia oleifera suitable area ranks first with the ratio amounting to 71. 23 % . Total phosphorus and organic matter content are the primary limited factors to restrict the economic forest growth in the region. The results can apply to guide economic forestry production, to promote the forest land reasonable utilization and management.

  8. Port San Luis, California Coastal Digital Elevation Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — NOAA's National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) is building high-resolution digital elevation models (DEMs) for select U.S. coastal regions. These integrated...

  9. U.S. Coastal Relief Model - Southern California Version 2

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — NGDC's U.S. Coastal Relief Model (CRM) provides a comprehensive view of the U.S. coastal zone integrating offshore bathymetry with land topography into a seamless...

  10. U.S. Coastal Relief Model - Southern California

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — NGDC's U.S. Coastal Relief Model (CRM) provides the first comprehensive view of the U.S. coastal zone integrating offshore bathymetry with land topography into a...

  11. San Francisco Bay, California Coastal Digital Elevation Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — NOAA's National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) is building high-resolution digital elevation models (DEMs) for select U.S. coastal regions. These integrated...

  12. 生态位模型的基本原理及其在生物多样性保护中的应用%Ecological niche modeling and its applications in biodiversity conservation

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    朱耿平; 刘国卿; 卜文俊; 高玉葆

    2013-01-01

    生态位模型是利用物种已知的分布数据和相关环境变量,根据一定的算法来推算物种的生态需求,然后将运算结果投射至不同的空间和时间中来预测物种的实际分布和潜在分布.近年来,该类模型被越来越多地应用在入侵生物学、保护生物学、全球气候变化对物种分布影响以及传染病空间传播的研究中.然而,由于生态位模型的理论基础未被深入理解,导致得出入侵物种生态位迁移等不符合实际的结论.作者从生态位与物种分布的关系、生态位模型构建的基本原理以及生态位模型和生态位的关系等方面探讨了生态位模型的理论基础.非生物的气候因素、物种间的相互作用和物种的迁移能力是影响物种分布的3个主要因素,它们在不同的空间尺度下作用于物种的分布.生态位模型是利用物种分布点所关联的环境变量来模拟物种的分布,这些分布点本身关联着该物种和其他物种间的相互作用,因此生态位模型所模拟的是现实生态位(realized niche)或潜在生态位(potential niche),而不是基础生态位(fundamental niche).Grinnell生态位和Elton生态位均在生态位模型中得到反映,这取决于环境变量类型的选择、所采用环境变量的分辨率以及物种自身的迁移能力.生态位模型在生物多样性保护中的应用主要包括物种的生态需求分析、未知物种或种群的探索和发现、自然保护区的选择和设计、物种入侵风险评价、气候变化对物种分布的影响、近缘物种生态位保守性及基于生态位分化的物种界定等方面.%Based on the environmental variables that associated with species' occurrence records, ecological niche modeling (ENM) seeks to characterize environmental conditions suitable for a particular species and then identify where suitable environmental habitats are distributed in the space. Recently, ENM has been used increasingly

  13. Stochastic dynamics of interacting haematopoietic stem cell niche lineages.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tamás Székely

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Since we still know very little about stem cells in their natural environment, it is useful to explore their dynamics through modelling and simulation, as well as experimentally. Most models of stem cell systems are based on deterministic differential equations that ignore the natural heterogeneity of stem cell populations. This is not appropriate at the level of individual cells and niches, when randomness is more likely to affect dynamics. In this paper, we introduce a fast stochastic method for simulating a metapopulation of stem cell niche lineages, that is, many sub-populations that together form a heterogeneous metapopulation, over time. By selecting the common limiting timestep, our method ensures that the entire metapopulation is simulated synchronously. This is important, as it allows us to introduce interactions between separate niche lineages, which would otherwise be impossible. We expand our method to enable the coupling of many lineages into niche groups, where differentiated cells are pooled within each niche group. Using this method, we explore the dynamics of the haematopoietic system from a demand control system perspective. We find that coupling together niche lineages allows the organism to regulate blood cell numbers as closely as possible to the homeostatic optimum. Furthermore, coupled lineages respond better than uncoupled ones to random perturbations, here the loss of some myeloid cells. This could imply that it is advantageous for an organism to connect together its niche lineages into groups. Our results suggest that a potential fruitful empirical direction will be to understand how stem cell descendants communicate with the niche and how cancer may arise as a result of a failure of such communication.

  14. Ecological niche models and patterns of richness and endemism of the southern Andean genus Eurymetopum (Coleoptera, Cleridae) Modelos de nicho ecológico y patrones de riqueza y endemismo del género andino austral Eurymetopum (Coleoptera, Cleridae)

    OpenAIRE

    Tania Escalante; Miguel Linaje; Patricia Illoldi-Rangel; Miguel Rivas; Patricia Estrada; Francisca Neira; Morrone, Juan J.

    2009-01-01

    Eurymetopum is an Andean clerid genus with 22 species. We modeled the ecological niches of 19 species with Maxent and used them as potential distributional maps to identify patterns of richness and endemicity. All modeled species maps were overlapped in a single map in order to determine richness. We performed an optimality analysis with NDM/VNDM in a grid of 1º latitude-longitude in order to identify endemism. We found a highly rich area, located between 32º and 41º south latitude, where the...

  15. Niching method using clustering crowding

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    GUO Guan-qi; GUI Wei-hua; WU Min; YU Shou-yi

    2005-01-01

    This study analyzes drift phenomena of deterministic crowding and probabilistic crowding by using equivalence class model and expectation proportion equations. It is proved that the replacement errors of deterministic crowding cause the population converging to a single individual, thus resulting in premature stagnation or losing optional optima. And probabilistic crowding can maintain equilibrium multiple subpopulations as the population size is adequate large. An improved niching method using clustering crowding is proposed. By analyzing topology of fitness landscape using hill valley function and extending the search space for similarity analysis, clustering crowding determines the locality of search space more accurately, thus greatly decreasing replacement errors of crowding. The integration of deterministic and probabilistic replacement increases the capacity of both parallel local hill climbing and maintaining multiple subpopulations. The experimental results optimizing various multimodal functions show that,the performances of clustering crowding, such as the number of effective peaks maintained, average peak ratio and global optimum ratio are uniformly superior to those of the evolutionary algorithms using fitness sharing, simple deterministic crowding and probabilistic crowding.

  16. 基于生态位模型的高标准基本农田建设适宜性评价%Suitability evaluation on high quality capital farmland consolidation based on niche-fitness model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    赵素霞; 牛海鹏; 张捍卫; 张合兵; 张小虎

    2016-01-01

    It is China's significant strategic move to carry out rural land consolidation and construct high quality capital farmland on a large scale, which ensures stable yields despite drought or excessive rain. However, the construction project of high quality capital farmland is currently with the lack of scientific instruction in line with local conditions in respect of project site selection and design approach. An empirical research was conducted in Xinzheng City to study suitability evaluation and obstacle indicators of high quality capital farmland. Based on the theory of ecological niche and the construction target of high-quality capital farmland, this paper proposed the very concept of high quality capital farmland niche, and established the index system from the different aspects of natural resource endowment, infrastructure, sustainability of high quality capital farmland and its space stability. Thirteen indicators were selected during the evaluation. Then this paper built the niche-fitness evaluation model. Throughout the evaluation model as well as the matching degree between the actual niche and the first-rate niche, 4 levels were divided to pinpoint the niche of the high quality capital farmland in different regions. The farmland in the first level areas was high quality capital farmland; the farmland in the second level areas needed to be improved; the farmland in the third level needed to be comprehensively renovated; and the farmland in the fourth level was not appropriate for exploitation. This paper clarified the niche of the high quality capital farmland in different regions, took the first-rate niche as the sole criterion to establish the diagnosis model of obstacle indicators, analyzed the restricted degree and diversity of the obstacle indicators, clarified the priority and orientation on capital farmland construction in different regions, and sought countermeasures and valid paths. The results were as follows: 1) 14017.72 hm2 farmland was high

  17. Mammalian niche conservation through deep time.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Larisa R G DeSantis

    Full Text Available Climate change alters species distributions, causing plants and animals to move north or to higher elevations with current warming. Bioclimatic models predict species distributions based on extant realized niches and assume niche conservation. Here, we evaluate if proxies for niches (i.e., range areas are conserved at the family level through deep time, from the Eocene to the Pleistocene. We analyze the occurrence of all mammalian families in the continental USA, calculating range area, percent range area occupied, range area rank, and range polygon centroids during each epoch. Percent range area occupied significantly increases from the Oligocene to the Miocene and again from the Pliocene to the Pleistocene; however, mammalian families maintain statistical concordance between rank orders across time. Families with greater taxonomic diversity occupy a greater percent of available range area during each epoch and net changes in taxonomic diversity are significantly positively related to changes in percent range area occupied from the Eocene to the Pleistocene. Furthermore, gains and losses in generic and species diversity are remarkably consistent with ~2.3 species gained per generic increase. Centroids demonstrate southeastern shifts from the Eocene through the Pleistocene that may correspond to major environmental events and/or climate changes during the Cenozoic. These results demonstrate range conservation at the family level and support the idea that niche conservation at higher taxonomic levels operates over deep time and may be controlled by life history traits. Furthermore, families containing megafauna and/or terminal Pleistocene extinction victims do not incur significantly greater declines in range area rank than families containing only smaller taxa and/or only survivors, from the Pliocene to Pleistocene. Collectively, these data evince the resilience of families to climate and/or environmental change in deep time, the absence of

  18. Niche conservatism in Gynandropaa frogs on the southeastern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Junhua; Broennimann, Olivier; Guisan, Antoine; Wang, Bin; Huang, Yan; Jiang, Jianping

    2016-01-01

    The role of ecological niche in lineage diversification has been the subject of long-standing interest of ecologists and evolutionary biologists. Gynandropaa frogs diversified into three independent clades endemic to the southeastern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. Here, we address the question whether these clades kept the same niche after separation, and what it tells us about possible diversification processes. We applied predictions in geographical (G)-space and tests of niche conservatism in environmental (E)-space. Niche models in G-space indicate separate regions with high suitability for the different clades, with some potential areas of sympatry. While the pair of central and eastern clades displayed the largest niche overlap for most variables, and strict niche equivalency was rejected for all clade-pairs, we found no strong evidence for niche divergence, but rather the signature of niche conservatism compared to null models in E-space. These results suggest a common ancestral ecological niche, and as such give good support to divergence through allopatric speciation, but alternative explanations are also possible. Our findings illustrate how testing for niche conservatism in lineage diversification can provide insights into underlying speciation processes, and how this information may guide further research and conservation practices, as illustrated here for amphibians on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. PMID:27601098

  19. A dynamic conduct parameter model of electricity marketer pricing behavior in the California power exchange

    OpenAIRE

    Carol A. Dahl; Tyler Hodge

    2012-01-01

    This paper contains a dynamic conduct parameter model to look at the pricing behavior of five power marketers in the California Power Exchange (CalPX) on daily data for 2000. Only our previous paper Hodge and Dahl (2012) specifically focused on just the electric power marketers. In this paper we compare a dynamic conduct parameter with that of our earlier static model to test whether the static estimates are biased downwards or towards not rejecting the null hypothesis of no market power. We ...

  20. Using High Resolution Model Data to Improve Lightning Forecasts across Southern California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Capps, S. B.; Rolinski, T.

    2014-12-01

    Dry lightning often results in a significant amount of fire starts in areas where the vegetation is dry and continuous. Meteorologists from the USDA Forest Service Predictive Services' program in Riverside, California are tasked to provide southern and central California's fire agencies with fire potential outlooks. Logistic regression equations were developed by these meteorologists several years ago, which forecast probabilities of lightning as well as lightning amounts, out to seven days across southern California. These regression equations were developed using ten years of historical gridded data from the Global Forecast System (GFS) model on a coarse scale (0.5 degree resolution), correlated with historical lightning strike data. These equations do a reasonably good job of capturing a lightning episode (3-5 consecutive days or greater of lightning), but perform poorly regarding more detailed information such as exact location and amounts. It is postulated that the inadequacies in resolving the finer details of episodic lightning events is due to the coarse resolution of the GFS data, along with limited predictors. Stability parameters, such as the Lifted Index (LI), the Total Totals index (TT), Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), along with Precipitable Water (PW) are the only parameters being considered as predictors. It is hypothesized that the statistical forecasts will benefit from higher resolution data both in training and implementing the statistical model. We have dynamically downscaled NCEP FNL (Final) reanalysis data using the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) to 3km spatial and hourly temporal resolution across a decade. This dataset will be used to evaluate the contribution to the success of the statistical model of additional predictors in higher vertical, spatial and temporal resolution. If successful, we will implement an operational dynamically downscaled GFS forecast product to generate predictors for the resulting

  1. Disjunct populations of European vascular plant species keep the same climatic niches

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wasof, Safaa; Lenoir, Jonathan; Aarrestad, Per Arild;

    2015-01-01

    disjunct populations and 358 species having either a contiguous or a patchy distribution with distant populations. First, we used species distribution modelling to test for a region effect on each species' climatic niche. Second, we quantified niche overlap and shifts in niche width (i.e. ecological...... between populations that are separated between the Alps and Fennoscandia and have probably been so for 10,000-15,000 years. Therefore, the basic assumption of species distribution models that a species' climatic niche is constant in space and time - at least on time scales 104 years or less - seems......Aim: Previous research on how climatic niches vary across species ranges has focused on a limited number of species, mostly invasive, and has not, to date, been very conclusive. Here we assess the degree of niche conservatism between distant populations of native alpine plant species that have been...

  2. Global climate niche estimates for bioenergy crops and invasive species of agronomic origin: potential problems and opportunities.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jacob N Barney

    Full Text Available The global push towards a more biomass-based energy sector is ramping up efforts to adopt regionally appropriate high-yielding crops. As potential bioenergy crops are being moved around the world an assessment of the climatic suitability would be a prudent first step in identifying suitable areas of productivity and risk. Additionally, this assessment also provides a necessary step in evaluating the invasive potential of bioenergy crops, which present a possible negative externality to the bioeconomy. Therefore, we provide the first global climate niche assessment for the major graminaceous (9, herbaceous (3, and woody (4 bioenergy crops. Additionally, we contrast these with climate niche assessments for North American invasive species that were originally introduced for agronomic purposes as examples of well-intentioned introductions gone awry. With few exceptions (e.g., Saccharum officinarum, Pennisetum purpureum, the bioenergy crops exhibit broad climatic tolerance, which allows tremendous flexibility in choosing crops, especially in areas with high summer rainfall and long growing seasons (e.g., southeastern US, Amazon Basin, eastern Australia. Unsurprisingly, the invasive species of agronomic origin have very similar global climate niche profiles as the proposed bioenergy crops, also demonstrating broad climatic tolerance. The ecoregional evaluation of bioenergy crops and known invasive species demonstrates tremendous overlap at both high (EI≥30 and moderate (EI≥20 climate suitability. The southern and western US ecoregions support the greatest number of invasive species of agronomic origin, especially the Southeastern USA Plains, Mixed Woods Plains, and Mediterranean California. Many regions of the world have a suitable climate for several bioenergy crops allowing selection of agro-ecoregionally appropriate crops. This model knowingly ignores the complex biotic interactions and edaphic conditions, but provides a robust assessment of

  3. Using seabird habitat modeling to inform marine spatial planning in central California's National Marine Sanctuaries.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jennifer McGowan

    Full Text Available Understanding seabird habitat preferences is critical to future wildlife conservation and threat mitigation in California. The objective of this study was to investigate drivers of seabird habitat selection within the Gulf of the Farallones and Cordell Bank National Marine Sanctuaries to identify areas for targeted conservation planning. We used seabird abundance data collected by the Applied California Current Ecosystem Studies Program (ACCESS from 2004-2011. We used zero-inflated negative binomial regression to model species abundance and distribution as a function of near surface ocean water properties, distances to geographic features and oceanographic climate indices to identify patterns in foraging habitat selection. We evaluated seasonal, inter-annual and species-specific variability of at-sea distributions for the five most abundant seabirds nesting on the Farallon Islands: western gull (Larus occidentalis, common murre (Uria aalge, Cassin's auklet (Ptychorampus aleuticus, rhinoceros auklet (Cerorhinca monocerata and Brandt's cormorant (Phalacrocorax penicillatus. The waters in the vicinity of Cordell Bank and the continental shelf east of the Farallon Islands emerged as persistent and highly selected foraging areas across all species. Further, we conducted a spatial prioritization exercise to optimize seabird conservation areas with and without considering impacts of current human activities. We explored three conservation scenarios where 10, 30 and 50 percent of highly selected, species-specific foraging areas would be conserved. We compared and contrasted results in relation to existing marine protected areas (MPAs and the future alternative energy footprint identified by the California Ocean Uses Atlas. Our results show that the majority of highly selected seabird habitat lies outside of state MPAs where threats from shipping, oil spills, and offshore energy development remain. This analysis accentuates the need for innovative marine

  4. Photochemical modeling in California with two chemical mechanisms: model intercomparison and response to emission reductions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cai, Chenxia; Kelly, James T; Avise, Jeremy C; Kaduwela, Ajith P; Stockwell, William R

    2011-05-01

    An updated version of the Statewide Air Pollution Research Center (SAPRC) chemical mechanism (SAPRC07C) was implemented into the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) version 4.6. CMAQ simulations using SAPRC07C and the previously released version, SAPRC99, were performed and compared for an episode during July-August, 2000. Ozone (O3) predictions of the SAPRC07C simulation are generally lower than those of the SAPRC99 simulation in the key areas of central and southern California, especially in areas where modeled concentrations are greater than the federal 8-hr O3 standard of 75 parts per billion (ppb) and/or when the volatile organic compound (VOC)/nitrogen oxides (NOx) ratio is less than 13. The relative changes of ozone production efficiency (OPE) against the VOC/NOx ratio at 46 sites indicate that the OPE is reduced in SAPRC07C compared with SAPRC99 at most sites by as much as approximately 22%. The SAPRC99 and SAPRC07C mechanisms respond similarly to 20% reductions in anthropogenic VOC emissions. The response of the mechanisms to 20% NOx emissions reductions can be grouped into three cases. In case 1, in which both mechanisms show a decrease in daily maximum 8-hr O3 concentration with decreasing NOx emissions, the O3 decrease in SAPRC07C is smaller. In case 2, in which both mechanisms show an increase in O3 with decreasing NOx emissions, the O3 increase is larger in SAPRC07C. In case 3, SAPRC07C simulates an increase in O3 in response to reduced NOx emissions whereas SAPRC99 simulates a decrease in O3 for the same region. As a result, the areas where NOx controls would be disbeneficial are spatially expanded in SAPRC07C. Although the results presented here are valuable for understanding differences in predictions and model response for SAPRC99 and SAPRC07C, the study did not evaluate the impact of mechanism differences in the context of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's guidance for using numerical models in demonstrating air quality attainment

  5. Tectonoestratigraphic and Thermal Models of the Tiburon and Wagner Basins, northern Gulf of California Rift System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Contreras, J.; Ramirez Zerpa, N. A.; Negrete-Aranda, R.

    2014-12-01

    The northern Gulf of California Rift System consist sofa series faults that accommodate both normal and strike-slip motion. The faults formed a series of half-greens filled with more than 7 km of siliciclastic suc­cessions. Here, we present tectonostratigraphic and heat flow models for the Tiburón basin, in the southern part of the system, and the Wag­ner basin in the north. The models are constrained by two-dimensional seis­mic lines and by two deep boreholes drilled by PEMEX­-PEP. Analysis of the seismic lines and models' results show that: (i) subsidence of the basins is controlled by high-angle normal faults and by flow of the lower crust, (ii) basins share a common history, and (iii) there are significant differences in the way brittle strain was partitioned in the basins, a feature frequently observed in rift basins. On one hand, the bounding faults of the Tiburón basin have a nested geometry and became active following a west-to-east sequence of activation. The Tiburon half-graben was formed by two pulses of fault activity. One took place during the protogulf extensional phase in the Miocene and the other during the opening of Gulf of California in the Pleistocene. On the other hand, the Wagner basin is the result of two fault generations. During the late-to middle Miocene, the west-dipping Cerro Prieto and San Felipe faults formed a domino array. Then, during the Pleistocene the Consag and Wagner faults dissected the hanging-wall of the Cerro Prieto fault forming the modern Wagner basin. Thermal modeling of the deep borehole temperatures suggests that the heat flow in these basins in the order of 110 mW/m2 which is in agreement with superficial heat flow measurements in the northern Gulf of California Rift System.

  6. Niche dynamics in the European ranges of two African carnivores reflect their dispersal and demographic histories

    OpenAIRE

    Papes, M.; Cuzin, F; Gaubert, Philippe

    2015-01-01

    According to recent phylogeographical evidence, the common genet (Genetta genetta) and the Egyptian mongoose (Herpestes ichneumon) have dissimilar dispersal histories from Maghreb to south-western Europe. Through comparative ecological niche modelling based on >1100 occurrences, we assessed whether the niche dynamics (i.e. niche shift versus conservatism) of the two species in their European ranges reflected DNA-based demographic scenarios. Sensitivity analyses and projections of climatic nic...

  7. Impact of assimilating physical oceanographic data on modeled ecosystem dynamics in the California Current System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raghukumar, Kaustubha; Edwards, Christopher A.; Goebel, Nicole L.; Broquet, Gregoire; Veneziani, Milena; Moore, Andrew M.; Zehr, Jon P.

    2015-11-01

    A method to model ocean ecosystems using data-constrained physical circulation estimates is investigated. Physical oceanographic data is assimilated into a Regional Ocean Modeling System implementation of the California Current System using an incremental 4-Dimensional Variational method. The resulting state estimate drives a complex, self-assembling ocean ecosystem model for the year 2003, and results are evaluated against SeaWiFS surface and CalCOFI subsurface observations and with ecosystem model output driven by an unconstrained physical model. While physical data assimilation improves correlation with observations, this method also drives elevated levels of phytoplankton standing stock, leading to a large bias particularly in regions of low mean concentration. We identify two causes for this increase: biological rectification of fluctuating vertical nutrient transport due to gravity wave generation at assimilation cycle initialization and increased nutrient variance on density surfaces. We investigate one and propose other possible remedies for these deleterious side-effects of this data assimilation method.

  8. Probabilistic Modeling for Risk Assessment of California Ground Water Contamination by Pesticides

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clayton, M.; Troiano, J.; Spurlock, F.

    2007-12-01

    The California Department of Pesticide Regulation (DPR) is responsible for the registration of pesticides in California. DPR's Environmental Monitoring Branch evaluates the potential for pesticide active ingredients to move to ground water under legal agricultural use conditions. Previous evaluations were primarily based on threshold values for specific persistence and mobility properties of pesticides as prescribed in the California Pesticide Contamination Prevention Act of 1985. Two limitations identified with that process were the univariate nature where interactions of the properties were not accounted for, and the inability to accommodate multiple values of a physical-chemical property. We addressed these limitations by developing a probabilistic modeling method based on prediction of potential well water concentrations. A mechanistic pesticide transport model, LEACHM, is used to simulate sorption, degradation and transport of a candidate pesticide through the root zone. A second empirical model component then simulates pesticide degradation and transport through the vadose zone to a receiving ground water aquifer. Finally, degradation during transport in the aquifer to the well screen is included in calculating final potential well concentrations. Using Monte Carlo techniques, numerous LEACHM simulations are conducted using random samples of the organic carbon normalized soil adsorption coefficients (Koc) and soil dissipation half-life values derived from terrestrial field dissipation (TFD) studies. Koc and TFD values are obtained from gamma distributions fitted to pooled data from agricultural-use pesticides detected in California ground water: atrazine, simazine, diuron, bromacil, hexazinone, and norflurazon. The distribution of predicted well water concentrations for these pesticides is in good agreement with concentrations measured in domestic wells in coarse, leaching vulnerable soils of Fresno and Tulure Counties. The leaching potential of a new

  9. California--Becoming an Agricultural and Industrial Power. Grade 4 Model Lesson for Unit 3, Standard 4.4. California History-Social Science Course Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freet, Jane; Porter, Priscilla

    This unit focuses on California's growth as an agricultural and industrial power in the 20th century and includes the impact of key people and key historic events. The unit is divided into 4 overlapping topics and should take 10 weeks to implement. Students examine how California became a power by tracing the transformation of the California…

  10. A Seamless, High-Resolution, Coastal Digital Elevation Model (DEM) for Southern California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnard, Patrick L.; Hoover, Daniel

    2010-01-01

    A seamless, 3-meter digital elevation model (DEM) was constructed for the entire Southern California coastal zone, extending 473 km from Point Conception to the Mexican border. The goal was to integrate the most recent, high-resolution datasets available (for example, Light Detection and Ranging (Lidar) topography, multibeam and single beam sonar bathymetry, and Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (IfSAR) topography) into a continuous surface from at least the 20-m isobath to the 20-m elevation contour. This dataset was produced to provide critical boundary conditions (bathymetry and topography) for a modeling effort designed to predict the impacts of severe winter storms on the Southern California coast (Barnard and others, 2009). The hazards model, run in real-time or with prescribed scenarios, incorporates atmospheric information (wind and pressure fields) with a suite of state-of-the-art physical process models (tide, surge, and wave) to enable detailed prediction of water levels, run-up, wave heights, and currents. Research-grade predictions of coastal flooding, inundation, erosion, and cliff failure are also included. The DEM was constructed to define the general shape of nearshore, beach and cliff surfaces as accurately as possible, with less emphasis on the detailed variations in elevation inland of the coast and on bathymetry inside harbors. As a result this DEM should not be used for navigation purposes.

  11. Crowdfunding niches? : exploring the potential of crowdfunding for financing renewable energy niches in the Netherlands

    OpenAIRE

    Vasileiadou, E Eleftheria; Huijben, JCCM Boukje; Raven, RPJM Rob

    2014-01-01

    TThere is a huge gap between demand and supply of finance for energy transitions, and the financial and economic crisis have had a negative impact in the already meagre funds for transforming the energy system towards renewable resources. In this paper we explore whether crowdfunding can provide an adequate business model for the creation, nurturing and upscaling of renewable energy niches. We empirically investigate crowdfunding initiatives and platforms linked to renewable electricity proje...

  12. A NICHE FOR ISOTOPIC ECOLOGY

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fifty years ago, GE Hutchinson defined the ecological niche as a hypervolume in n-dimensional space with environmental variables as axes. Ecologists have recently developed renewed interest in the concept, and technological advances now allow us to use stable isotope analyses to ...

  13. The niche construction perspective: a critical appraisal

    OpenAIRE

    Scott-Phillips, Thomas C.; Laland, Kevin N.; Shuker, David M.; Dickins, Thomas E.; West, Stuart A.

    2014-01-01

    Niche construction refers to the activities of organisms that bring about changes in their environments, many of which are evolutionarily and ecologically consequential. Advocates of niche construction theory (NCT) believe that standard evolutionary theory fails to recognize the full importance of niche construction, and consequently propose a novel view of evolution, in which niche construction and its legacy over time (ecological inheritance) are described as evolutionary processes, equival...

  14. The niche construction perspective: a critical appraisal.

    OpenAIRE

    Scott-Phillips, Thomas C.; Laland, Kevin N.; Shuker, David M.; Dickins, Thomas E.; West, Stuart A.

    2014-01-01

    Niche construction refers to the activities of organisms that bring about changes in their environments, many of which are evolutionarily and ecologically consequential. Advocates of niche construction theory (NCT) believe that standard evolutionary theory fails to recognize the full importance of niche construction, and consequently propose a novel view of evolution, in which niche construction and its legacy over time (ecological inheritance) are described as evolutionary processes, equival...

  15. Ontogenetic niche shifts in three Vaccinium species on a sub-alpine mountain side

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Auffret, Alistair G.; Meineri, Eric; Bruun, Hans Henrik;

    2010-01-01

    Background: Climate warming in arctic and alpine regions is expected to result in the altitudinal migration of plant species, but current predictions neglect differences between species' regeneration niche and established niche. Aims: To examine potential recruitment of Vaccinium myrtillus, V. ul...... recruitment in habitats at altitudes above its current populations. Conclusions: The potential for migration exists, but incongruence between regenerative and established niches presents a challenge for colonisers, as well as for plant migration modelling......Background: Climate warming in arctic and alpine regions is expected to result in the altitudinal migration of plant species, but current predictions neglect differences between species' regeneration niche and established niche. Aims: To examine potential recruitment of Vaccinium myrtillus, V......-idaea seedlings was significantly related to community type, while V. uliginosum was indifferent, but exhibited the highest average emergence. Adult occurrence was related to community, and ontogenetic niche shifts were observed for all three study species. V. myrtillus was shown to have the highest potential...

  16. Research on the Strategic Decision Model of Niches in Business Ecosystems%利基企业的商业生态系统战略决策模型研究

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    杜玉申; 卜丹丹

    2014-01-01

    已有的研究对骨干企业的商业生态系统理论进行了比较深入的讨论,利基企业是生态系统中的大众和价值创造主体,研究其商业生态系统战略不仅具有重要的理论价值,同时也有助于提高初创企业的创业成功率,从而激活国民经济的活力。本文识别出利基企业在商业生态系统中面临着随整个系统灭亡、被核心企业捕食和与其它利基者竞争3种挑战,提出以商业生态系统和生态位评估为基础的利基企业商业生态系统战略决策模型。%Previous studies on business ecosystems have put massive attention to keystones . Niches are mass and main value creators in the ecosystems , so studying its business ecosystem strategy not only has important theoretical value , but also helps improve the success rate of entrepreneurship and activate the prosperity of the national economy . This paper identifies that niches are facing risk of death with the entire system , being preyed by core business and competition with other niches . Based on the assessments of business ecosystems and positions , a strategic decisions model in the context of business ecosystems was recommended .

  17. Analyzing carbon dioxide and methane emissions in California using airborne measurements and model simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, M. S.; Yates, E. L.; Iraci, L. T.; Jeong, S.; Fischer, M. L.

    2013-12-01

    Greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations have increased over the past decades and are linked to global temperature increases and climate change. These changes in climate have been suggested to have varying effects, and uncertain consequences, on agriculture, water supply, weather, sea-level rise, the economy, and energy. To counteract the trend of increasing atmospheric concentrations of GHGs, the state of California has passed the California Global Warming Act of 2006 (AB-32). This requires that by the year 2020, GHG (e.g., carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4)) emissions will be reduced to 1990 levels. To quantify GHG fluxes, emission inventories are routinely compiled for the State of California (e.g., CH4 emissions from the California Greenhouse Gas Emissions Measurement (CALGEM) Project). The major sources of CO2 and CH4 in the state of California are: transportation, electricity production, oil and gas extraction, cement plants, agriculture, landfills/waste, livestock, and wetlands. However, uncertainties remain in these emission inventories because many factors contributing to these processes are poorly quantified. To alleviate these uncertainties, a synergistic approach of applying air-borne measurements and chemical transport modeling (CTM) efforts to provide a method of quantifying local and regional GHG emissions will be performed during this study. Additionally, in order to further understand the temporal and spatial distributions of GHG fluxes in California and the impact these species have on regional climate, CTM simulations of daily variations and seasonality of total column CO2 and CH4 will be analyzed. To assess the magnitude and spatial variation of GHG emissions and to identify local 'hot spots', airborne measurements of CH4 and CO2 were made by the Alpha Jet Atmospheric eXperiment (AJAX) over the San Francisco Bay Area (SFBA) and San Joaquin Valley (SJV) in January and February 2013 during the Discover-AQ-CA study. High mixing ratios of GHGs were

  18. Tracking niche variation over millennial timescales in sympatric killer whale lineages

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Foote, Andrew David; Newton, Jason; Avila Arcos, Maria del Carmen;

    2013-01-01

    -individual variation in ecology, it is difficult for sympatric speciation to progress in the face of gene flow. In contrast to some theoretical models, our empirical results suggest that sympatric speciation driven by among-individual differences in ecological niche is a slow process and may not reach completion. We......Niche variation owing to individual differences in ecology has been hypothesized to be an early stage of sympatric speciation. Yet to date, no study has tracked niche width over more than a few generations. In this study, we show the presence of isotopic niche variation over millennial timescales...

  19. Fine-scale WRF-CMAQ Modeling for the 2013 DISCOVER-AQ Campaign in California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gilliam, R. C.; Pleim, J. E.; Appel, W.

    2014-12-01

    Deriving Information on Surface Conditions from Column and Vertically Resolved Observations Relevant to Air Quality (DISCOVER-AQ) is an ongoing four year NASA campaign to improve remote sensing in order to better resolve the distribution of pollutants in the lower atmosphere for public health reasons. These observational campaigns are a prime opportunity to evaluate and improve weather and air quality models, in particular the finer scales, since the collected observations are not only unique (boundary layer profiles, planetary boundary layer height and LIDAR), but of high spatial density. For the first campaign in the Washington DC-Baltimore region, a number of meteorological model improvements were crucial for quality results at the finer grid scales. The main techniques tested in the DISCOVER-AQ Washington DC-Baltimore experiment were iterative indirect soil nudging, a simple urban parameterization based on highly resolved impervious surface data, and the use of a high resolution 1 km sea surface temperature dataset. A fourth technique, first tested in a separate cold season application in the US Rocky Mountains, was the assimilation of high resolution 1 km SNOw Data Assimilation System (SNODAS) data for better snow cover representation in retrospective modeling. These methods will be leveraged using a nested 12-4-2 km WRF-CMAQ modeling platform for the 2013 DISCOVER-AQ California campaign where the 2 km domain covers the entire San Joaquin Valley (SJV), coastal areas and all of Los Angeles. The purpose is to demonstrate methods to derive high quality meteorology for retrospective air quality modeling over geographically complex areas of the Western US where current coarser resolution modeling may not be sufficient. Accurate air quality modeling is particularly important for California, which has some of the most polluted areas in the US, within the SJV. Furthermore, this work may inform modeling in other areas of the Intermountain West that are experiencing air

  20. Niche energy markets in rural areas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The objective of this project is the development of a standard methodology for integrating non-food crops in rural areas with niche energy markets. This has involved a number of steps including (i) identification of 3 niche markets for energy crops which are of common interest to the partners, (ii) application of the standard costing methodology to investigate these three niche markets and (iii) comparison of the results from this work in three workshops (one for each market). Three tightly defined niche markets were identified; these were chosen following an examination of the national energy marekts in each of the partners countries (Ireland, Germany, Netherlands, UK, Greece and Portugal). This paper gives an overview of the national energy markets which were examined. The three niche markets are introduced and the reasons for their selection given. The application of the methodology to each of the niche markets is presented along with the conclusions of the partners regarding the niche markets. (Author)

  1. Step back! Niche dynamics in cave-dwelling predators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mammola, Stefano; Piano, Elena; Isaia, Marco

    2016-08-01

    The geometry of the Hutchinson's hypervolume derives from multiple selective pressures defined, on one hand, by the physiological tolerance of the species, and on the other, by intra- and interspecific competition. The quantification of these evolutionary forces is essential for the understanding of the coexistence of predators in light of competitive exclusion dynamics. We address this topic by investigating the ecological niche of two medium-sized troglophile spiders (Meta menardi and Pimoa graphitica). Over one year, we surveyed several populations in four subterranean sites in the Western Italian Alps, monitoring monthly their spatial and temporal dynamics and the associated physical and ecological variables. We assessed competition between the two species by means of multi regression techniques and by evaluating the intersection between their multidimensional hypervolumes. We detected a remarkable overlap between the microclimatic and trophic niche of M. menardi and P. graphitica, however, the former -being larger in size- resulted the best competitor in proximity of the cave entrance, causing the latter to readjust its spatial niche towards the inner part, where prey availability is scarcer ("step back effect"). In parallel to the slight variations in the subterranean microclimatic condition, the niche of the two species was also found to be seasonal dependent, varying over the year. With this work, we aim at providing new insights about the relationships among predators, demonstrating that energy-poor environments such as caves maintain the potential for diversification of predators via niche differentiation and serve as useful models for theoretical ecological studies.

  2. Niche dimensionality and the genetics of ecological speciation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chevin, Luis-Miguel; Decorzent, Guillaume; Lenormand, Thomas

    2014-05-01

    Niche dimensionality is suggested to be a key determinant of ecological speciation ("multifarious selection" hypothesis), but genetic aspects of this process have not been investigated theoretically. We use Fisher's geometrical model to study how niche dimensionality influences the mean fitness of hybrids formed upon secondary contact between populations adapting in allopatry. Gaussian selection for an optimum generates two forms of reproductive isolation (RI): an extrinsic component due to maladaptation of the mean phenotype, and an intrinsic variance load resulting from what we term transgressive incompatibilities between mutations fixed in different populations. We show that after adaptation to a new environment, RI increases with (1) the mean initial maladaptation of diverging population, and (2) niche dimensionality, which increases the phenotypic variability of fixed mutations. Under mutation selection drift equilibrium in a constant environment, RI accumulates steadily with time, at a rate that also increases with niche dimensionality. A similar pattern can be produced by successive shifts in the optimum phenotype. Niche dimensionality thus has an effect per se on postzygotic isolation, beyond putative indirect effects (stronger selection, more genes). Our mechanism is consistent with empirical evidence about transgressive segregation in crosses between divergent populations, and with patterns of accumulation of RI with time in many taxa. PMID:24410181

  3. Niche market analysis: healthy nutrition

    OpenAIRE

    Chlivényiová, Eva

    2012-01-01

    The purpose of this Master's Thesis is to consider preferences of the consumers on the market of healthy nutrition and trends on this market. The Thesis analyzes if the niche on the market of healthy nutrition really exists and tries to predict future development of the healthy nutrition through the found out facts. The topic of this Master's Thesis was chosen because healthy lifestyle represents a hot topic for many discussions. This Thesis includes theoretical and analytical parts. Importan...

  4. Photochemical Air Quality Modeling for California By U.S. EPA and Carb

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelly, J.; Cai, C.; Baker, K. R.; Avise, J.; Kaduwela, A. P.

    2014-12-01

    Multiple areas of California have been designated as nonattainment of the National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) for ozone and PM2.5 (particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter CARB) and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). Both simulations were conducted at 4-km horizontal resolution and cover the May-June 2010 period when special study measurements were made. Despite differences in emissions, meteorology, boundary conditions, and chemical mechanisms, the CMAQ predictions by EPA and CARB were generally similar with good model performance for ozone at key monitors. Differences in predictions for PM2.5 components were identified in some locations and attributed to differences in emissions and other platform elements. Our results suggest areas where model development would be beneficial.

  5. Evaluation of regional isoprene emission factors and modeled fluxes in California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Misztal, Pawel K.; Avise, Jeremy C.; Karl, Thomas; Scott, Klaus; Jonsson, Haflidi H.; Guenther, Alex B.; Goldstein, Allen H.

    2016-08-01

    Accurately modeled biogenic volatile organic compound (BVOC) emissions are an essential input to atmospheric chemistry simulations of ozone and particle formation. BVOC emission models rely on basal emission factor (BEF) distribution maps based on emission measurements and vegetation land-cover data but these critical input components of the models as well as model simulations lack validation by regional scale measurements. We directly assess isoprene emission-factor distribution databases for BVOC emission models by deriving BEFs from direct airborne eddy covariance (AEC) fluxes (Misztal et al., 2014) scaled to the surface and normalized by the activity factor of the Guenther et al. (2006) algorithm. The available airborne BEF data from approx. 10 000 km of flight tracks over California were averaged spatially over 48 defined ecological zones called ecoregions. Consistently, BEFs used by three different emission models were averaged over the same ecoregions for quantitative evaluation. Ecoregion-averaged BEFs from the most current land cover used by the Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature (MEGAN) v.2.1 resulted in the best agreement among the tested land covers and agreed within 10 % with BEFs inferred from measurement. However, the correlation was sensitive to a few discrepancies (either overestimation or underestimation) in those ecoregions where land-cover BEFs are less accurate or less representative for the flight track. The two other land covers demonstrated similar agreement (within 30 % of measurements) for total average BEF across all tested ecoregions but there were a larger number of specific ecoregions that had poor agreement with the observations. Independently, we performed evaluation of the new California Air Resources Board (CARB) hybrid model by directly comparing its simulated isoprene area emissions averaged for the same flight times and flux footprints as actual measured area emissions. The model simulation and the observed

  6. On climate model simulations of the large-scale meteorology associated with California heat waves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grotjahn, Richard; Lee, Yun-Young

    2016-01-01

    Previous work considered how well the large-scale meteorological patterns (LSMPs) associated with California Central Valley heat waves are captured by a climate model. Recent work found two distinct types of LSMPs and key parcel trajectories occurring prior to heat wave onset. This study searches for those two types of heat waves in two additional reanalyses and in historical simulations by 14 climate models. The reanalyses develop both types with similar properties; their differences are used as a conservative estimate of acceptable differences between data sets. All the models develop heat waves of both types, but the models vary quite a bit in the separation between the two types, the magnitudes of the two types, and the frequency of occurrence of the two types. The best models match a third to a half of the properties found in reanalyses. Models tend to have lower valued projections onto the two types than reanalyses, consistent with a systematic tendency to center the hottest 850 hPa temperatures onshore instead of just offshore. Models of higher horizontal resolution tend to simulate better the two types. There is some evidence that models with a low top (with relatively poorly resolved stratosphere) also simulate the clusters better.

  7. Evaluation of the southern California seismic velocity models through simulation of recorded events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taborda, Ricardo; Azizzadeh-Roodpish, Shima; Khoshnevis, Naeem; Cheng, Keli

    2016-06-01

    Significant effort has been devoted over the last two decades to the development of various seismic velocity models for the region of southern California, United States. These models are mostly used in forward wave propagation simulation studies, but also as base models for tomographic and source inversions. Two of these models, the community velocity models CVM-S and CVM-H, are among the most commonly used for this region. This includes two alternative variations to the original models, the recently released CVM-S4.26 which incorporates results from a sequence of tomographic inversions into CVM-S, and the user-controlled option of CVM-H to replace the near-surface profiles with a VS30-based geotechnical model. Although either one of these models is regarded as acceptable by the modeling community, it is known that they have differences in their representation of the crustal structure and sedimentary deposits in the region, and thus can lead to different results in forward and inverse problems. In this paper, we evaluate the accuracy of these models when used to predict the ground motion in the greater Los Angeles region by means of an assessment of a collection of simulations of recent events. In total, we consider 30 moderate-magnitude earthquakes (3.5 models that satisfy a maximum frequency of 1 Hz and a minimum shear wave velocity of 200 m s-1. The comparisons between data and synthetics are ranked quantitatively by means of a goodness-of-fit (GOF) criteria. We analyse the regional distribution of the GOF results for all events and all models, and draw conclusions from the results and how these correlate to the models. We find that, in light of our comparisons, the model CVM-S4.26 consistently yields better results.

  8. Evaluation of the Southern California Seismic Velocity Models through Simulation of Recorded Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taborda, Ricardo; Azizzadeh-Roodpish, Shima; Khoshnevis, Naeem; Cheng, Keli

    2016-03-01

    Significant effort has been devoted over the last two decades to the development of various seismic velocity models for the region of southern California, United States. These models are mostly used in forward wave propagation simulation studies, but also as base models for tomographic and source inversions. Two of these models, the community velocity models CVM-S and CVM-H, are among the most commonly used for this region. This includes two alternative variations to the original models, the recently released CVM-S4.26 which incorporates results from a sequence of tomographic inversions into CVM-S, and the user-controlled option of CVM-H to replace the near-surface profiles with a VS30-based geotechnical (GTL) model. Although either one of these models is regarded as acceptable by the modeling community, it is known that they have differences in their representation of the crustal structure and sedimentary deposits in the region, and thus can lead to different results in forward and inverse problems. In this article we evaluate the accuracy of these models when used to predict the ground motion in the greater Los Angeles region by means of an assessment of a collection of simulations of recent events. In total, we consider 30 moderate-magnitude earthquakes (3.5 networks during these events. The simulations are done using a finite element parallel code, with numerical models that satisfy a maximum frequency of 1 Hz and a minimum shear wave velocity of 200 m/s. The comparisons between data and synthetics are ranked quantitatively by means of a goodness-of-fit (GOF) criteria. We analyze the regional distribution of the GOF results for all events and all models, and draw conclusions from the results and how these correlate to the models. We find that, in light of our comparisons, the model CVM-S4.26 consistently yields better results.

  9. An individual-based model of the krill Euphausia pacifica in the California Current

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dorman, Jeffrey G.; Sydeman, William J.; Bograd, Steven J.; Powell, Thomas M.

    2015-11-01

    Euphausia pacifica is an abundant and important prey resource for numerous predators of the California Current and elsewhere in the North Pacific. We developed an individual-based model (IBM) for E. pacifica to study its bioenergetics (growth, stage development, reproduction, and mortality) under constant/ideal conditions as well as under varying ocean conditions and food resources. To model E. pacifica under varying conditions, we coupled the IBM to an oceanographic-ecosystem model over the period 2000-2008 (9 years). Model results under constant/ideal food conditions compare favorably with experimental studies conducted under food unlimited conditions. Under more realistic variable oceanographic conditions, mean growth rates over the continental shelf were positive only when individuals migrated diurnally to the depth of maximum phytoplankton layer during nighttime feeding. Our model only used phytoplankton as prey and coastal growth rates were lower than expected (0.01 mm d-1), suggesting that a diverse prey base (zooplankton, protists, marine snow) may be required to facilitate growth and survival of modeled E. pacifica in the coastal environment. This coupled IBM-ROMS modeling framework and its parameters provides a tool for understanding the biology and ecology of E. pacifica and could be developed to further the understanding of climatic effects on this key prey species and enhance an ecosystem approach to fisheries and wildlife management in this region.

  10. Modeling future water demand in California from developed and agricultural land uses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, T. S.; Sleeter, B. M.; Cameron, D. R.

    2015-12-01

    Municipal and urban land-use intensification in coming decades will place increasing pressure on water resources in California. The state is currently experiencing one of the most extreme droughts on record. This coupled with earlier spring snowmelt and projected future climate warming will increasingly constrain already limited water supplies. The development of spatially explicit models of future land use driven by empirical, historical land use change data allow exploration of plausible LULC-related water demand futures and potential mitigation strategies. We utilized the Land Use and Carbon Scenario Simulator (LUCAS) state-and-transition simulation model to project spatially explicit (1 km) future developed and agricultural land use from 2012 to 2062 and estimated the associated water use for California's Mediterranean ecoregions. We modeled 100 Monte Carlo simulations to better characterize and project historical land-use change variability. Under current efficiency rates, total water demand was projected to increase 15.1% by 2062, driven primarily by increases in urbanization and shifts to more water intensive crops. Developed land use was projected to increase by 89.8%-97.2% and result in an average 85.9% increase in municipal water use, while agricultural water use was projected to decline by approximately 3.9%, driven by decreases in row crops and increases in woody cropland. In order for water demand in 2062 to balance to current demand levels, the currently mandated 25% reduction in urban water use must remain in place in conjunction with a near 7% reduction in agricultural water use. Scenarios of land-use related water demand are useful for visualizing alternative futures, examining potential management approaches, and enabling better informed resource management decisions.

  11. Modeling residential water and related energy, carbon footprint and costs in California

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Graphical abstract: - Highlights: • We model residential water use and related energy and GHG emissions in California. • Heterogeneity in use, spatial variability and water and energy rates are accounted. • Outdoor is more than 50% of water use but 80% of energy is used by faucet + shower. • Variability in water and energy prices affects willingness to adopt conservation. • Targeting high-use hoses and joint conservation policies are effective strategies. - Abstract: Starting from single-family household water end-use data, this study develops an end-use model for water-use and related energy and carbon footprint using probability distributions for parameters affecting water consumption in 10 local water utilities in California. Monte Carlo simulations are used to develop a large representative sample of households to describe variability in use, with water bills for each house for different utility rate structures. The water-related energy consumption for each household realization was obtained using an energy model based on the different water end-uses, assuming probability distributions for hot-water-use for each appliance and water heater characteristics. Spatial variability is incorporated to account for average air and household water inlet temperatures and price structures for each utility. Water-related energy costs are calculated using averaged energy price for each location. CO2 emissions were derived from energy use using emission factors. Overall simulation runs assess the impact of several common conservation strategies on household water and energy use. Results show that single-family water-related CO2 emissions are 2% of overall per capita emissions, and that managing water and energy jointly can significantly reduce state greenhouse gas emissions

  12. Bone Marrow Vascular Niche: Home for Hematopoietic Stem Cells

    OpenAIRE

    Ningning He; Lu Zhang; Jian Cui; Zongjin Li

    2014-01-01

    Though discovered later than osteoblastic niche, vascular niche has been regarded as an alternative indispensable niche operating regulation on hematopoietic stem cells (HSCs). As significant progresses gained on this type niche, it is gradually clear that the main work of vascular niche is undertaking to support hematopoiesis. However, compared to what have been defined in the mechanisms through which the osteoblastic niche regulates hematopoiesis, we know less in vascular niche. In this rev...

  13. Detailed p- and s-wave velocity models along the LARSE II transect, Southern California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murphy, J.M.; Fuis, G.S.; Ryberg, T.; Lutter, W.J.; Catchings, R.D.; Goldman, M.R.

    2010-01-01

    Structural details of the crust determined from P-wave velocity models can be improved with S-wave velocity models, and S-wave velocities are needed for model-based predictions of strong ground motion in southern California. We picked P- and S-wave travel times for refracted phases from explosive-source shots of the Los Angeles Region Seismic Experiment, Phase II (LARSE II); we developed refraction velocity models from these picks using two different inversion algorithms. For each inversion technique, we calculated ratios of P- to S-wave velocities (VP/VS) where there is coincident P- and S-wave ray coverage.We compare the two VP inverse velocity models to each other and to results from forward modeling, and we compare the VS inverse models. The VS and VP/VS models differ in structural details from the VP models. In particular, dipping, tabular zones of low VS, or high VP/VS, appear to define two fault zones in the central Transverse Ranges that could be parts of a positive flower structure to the San Andreas fault. These two zones are marginally resolved, but their presence in two independent models lends them some credibility. A plot of VS versus VP differs from recently published plots that are based on direct laboratory or down-hole sonic measurements. The difference in plots is most prominent in the range of VP = 3 to 5 km=s (or VS ~ 1:25 to 2:9 km/s), where our refraction VS is lower by a few tenths of a kilometer per second from VS based on direct measurements. Our new VS - VP curve may be useful for modeling the lower limit of VS from a VP model in calculating strong motions from scenario earthquakes.

  14. A new image of the hematopoietic stem cell vascular niche

    OpenAIRE

    Silberstein, Leslie E.; Lin, Charles P.

    2013-01-01

    The microenvironment within the bone marrow that maintains hematopoietic stem cell (HSC) quiescence is the subject of intense study. In a recent Nature paper, Kunisaki et al combine imaging techniques and computational modeling to define a novel arteriolar niche for quiescent HSCs within the bone marrow.

  15. Supply Chain Development: Insights from Strategic Niche Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caniels, Marjolein C. J.; Romijn, Henny A.

    2008-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to contribute to the study of supply chain design from the perspective of complex dynamic systems. Unlike extant studies that use formal simulation modelling and associated methodologies rooted in the physical sciences, it adopts a framework rooted in the social sciences, strategic niche management, which…

  16. California Tiger Salamander Range - CWHR [ds588

    Data.gov (United States)

    California Department of Resources — Vector datasets of CWHR range maps are one component of California Wildlife Habitat Relationships (CWHR), a comprehensive information system and predictive model...

  17. Reactive Transport of Nitrate in Northern California Groundwater basins: An Integrated Characterization and Modeling Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Esser, B. K.; Moran, J. E.; Hudson, G. B.; Carle, S. F.; McNab, W.; Tompson, A. F.; Moore, K.; Beller, H.; Kane, S.; Eaton, G.

    2003-12-01

    More than 1/3 of active public drinking water supply wells in California produce water with nitrate-N levels indicative of anthropogenic inputs (> 4 mg/L). Understanding how the distribution of nitrate in California groundwater basins will evolve is vital to water supply and infrastructure planning. To address this need, we are studying the basin-scale reactive transport of nitrate in the Livermore and Llagas basins of Northern California. Both basins have increasingly urban populations heavily reliant on groundwater. A distinct nitrate "plume" exists in the Livermore Basin (Alameda County) whereas pervasive nitrate contamination exists in shallow groundwaters of the Llagas Basin (Santa Clara County). The sources and timing of nitrate contamination in these basins are not definitively known; septic systems, irrigated agriculture and livestock operations exist or have existed in both areas. The role of denitrification in controlling nitrate distribution is also unknown; dissolved oxygen levels are sufficiently low in portions of each basin as to indicate the potential for denitrification. We have collected water from 60 wells, and are determining both groundwater age (by the 3H/3He method) and the extent of denitrification (by the excess N2 method). Excess nitrogen is being determined by both membrane-inlet and noble gas mass spectrometry, using Ar and Ne content to account for atmospheric N2. We are also analyzing for stable istotopes of nitrate and water, nitrate co-contaminants, and general water quality parameters. Preliminary analysis of archival water district data from both basins suggests positive correlations of nitrate with Ca+2, Mg+2 and bicarbonate and negative correlation with pH. In the Llagas Basin, a negative correlation also exists between nitrate and temperature. Flow path-oriented reactive transport modeling is being explored as a tool to aid in the identification of both the sources of nitrate and evidence for denitrification in both basins

  18. California Bioregions

    Data.gov (United States)

    California Department of Resources — California regions developed by the Inter-agency Natural Areas Coordinating Committee (INACC) were digitized from a 1:1,200,000 California Department of Fish and...

  19. Integrated modeling and field study of potential mechanisms forinduced seismicity at The Geysers Goethermal Field, California

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rutqvist, Jonny; Majer, Ernie; Oldenburg, Curt; Peterson, John; Vasco, Don

    2006-06-07

    In this paper, we present progress made in a study aimed atincreasing the understanding of the relative contributions of differentmechanisms that may be causing the seismicity occurring at The Geysersgeothermal field, California. The approach we take is to integrate: (1)coupled reservoir geomechanical numerical modeling, (2) data fromrecently upgraded and expanded NCPA/Calpine/LBNL seismic arrays, and (3)tens of years of archival InSAR data from monthly satellite passes. Wehave conducted a coupled reservoir geomechanical analysis to studypotential mechanisms induced by steam production. Our simulation resultscorroborate co-locations of hypocenter field observations of inducedseismicity and their correlation with steam production as reported in theliterature. Seismic and InSAR data are being collected and processed foruse in constraining the coupled reservoir geomechanicalmodel.

  20. Test characteristics from latent-class models of the California Mastitis Test.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanford, C J; Keefe, G P; Sanchez, J; Dingwell, R T; Barkema, H W; Leslie, K E; Dohoo, I R

    2006-11-17

    We evaluated (using latent-class models) the ability of the California Mastitis Test (CMT) to identify cows with intramammary infections on the day of dry-off. The positive and negative predictive values of this test to identify cows requiring dry-cow antibiotics (i.e. infected) was also assessed. We used 752 Holstein-Friesian cows from 11 herds for this investigation. Milk samples were collected for bacteriology, and the CMT was performed cow-side, prior to milking on the day of dry-off. At the cow-level, the sensitivity and specificity of the CMT (using the four quarter results interpreted in parallel) for identifying all pathogens were estimated at 70 and 48%, respectively. If only major pathogens were considered the sensitivity of the CMT increased to 86%. The negative predictive value of the CMT was >95% for herds with major-pathogen intramammary-infection prevalence CMT. PMID:16876270

  1. Physiochemical Evidence of Faulting Processes and Modeling of Fluid in Evolving Fault Systems in Southern California

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boles, James [Professor

    2013-05-24

    Our study targets recent (Plio-Pleistocene) faults and young (Tertiary) petroleum fields in southern California. Faults include the Refugio Fault in the Transverse Ranges, the Ellwood Fault in the Santa Barbara Channel, and most recently the Newport- Inglewood in the Los Angeles Basin. Subsurface core and tubing scale samples, outcrop samples, well logs, reservoir properties, pore pressures, fluid compositions, and published structural-seismic sections have been used to characterize the tectonic/diagenetic history of the faults. As part of the effort to understand the diagenetic processes within these fault zones, we have studied analogous processes of rapid carbonate precipitation (scaling) in petroleum reservoir tubing and manmade tunnels. From this, we have identified geochemical signatures in carbonate that characterize rapid CO2 degassing. These data provide constraints for finite element models that predict fluid pressures, multiphase flow patterns, rates and patterns of deformation, subsurface temperatures and heat flow, and geochemistry associated with large fault systems.

  2. California's Innovative Corridors Initiative: A New Model for Public-Private Partnerships in Transportation

    OpenAIRE

    Shaheen, Susan; McCormick, Cynthia; Finson, Rachel S.

    2004-01-01

    California's Innovative Corridors Initiative (ICI) is a multi-year project to test a new approach for accelerating the deployment of Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) technologies, products, and services along major California corridors. As part of the effort, ICI governmental partners developed a Call for Submissions (CFS) to solicit proposals for pilot demonstration projects to be showcased in conjunction with the forthcoming 2005 ITS World Congress in San Francisco, California. The ...

  3. Exploring dynamics and strategies of niche protection

    OpenAIRE

    Boon, W.P.C.; Moors, Ellen H M; Meijer, Albert J.

    2014-01-01

    This paper focuses on the processes and strategies of advocates and opponents in creating, maintaining and/or contesting the protective spaces in which 'urgently needed' but 'risky' pharmaceutical innovations are managed. Drawing on transition literature and recent work on niche protection, this paper adds to the conceptualisation and empirical grounding of niche protection by studying the dynamics of protection, in particular the different phases of niche development. Moreover, the links bet...

  4. Human niche construction in interdisciplinary focus

    OpenAIRE

    Kendal, Jeremy; Tehrani, Jamshid J.; Odling-Smee, John

    2011-01-01

    Niche construction is an endogenous causal process in evolution, reciprocal to the causal process of natural selection. It works by adding ecological inheritance, comprising the inheritance of natural selection pressures previously modified by niche construction, to genetic inheritance in evolution. Human niche construction modifies selection pressures in environments in ways that affect both human evolution, and the evolution of other species. Human ecological inheritance is exceptionally po...

  5. Phytoplankton niche generation by interspecific stoichiometric variation

    Science.gov (United States)

    GöThlich, L.; Oschlies, A.

    2012-06-01

    For marine biogeochemical models used in simulations of climate change scenarios, the ability to account for adaptability of marine ecosystems to environmental change becomes a concern. The potential for adaptation is expected to be larger for a diverse ecosystem compared to a monoculture of a single type of (model) algae, such as typically included in biogeochemical models. Recent attempts to simulate phytoplankton diversity in global marine ecosystem models display remarkable qualitative agreement with observed patterns of species distributions. However, modeled species diversity tends to be systematically lower than observed and, in many regions, is smaller than the number of potentially limiting nutrients. According to resource competition theory, the maximum number of coexisting species at equilibrium equals the number of limiting resources. By simulating phytoplankton communities in a chemostat model and in a global circulation model, we show here that a systematic underestimate of phytoplankton diversity may result from the standard modeling assumption of identical stoichiometry for the different phytoplankton types. Implementing stoichiometric variation among the different marine algae types in the models allows species to generate different resource supply niches via their own ecological impact. This is shown to increase the level of phytoplankton coexistence both in a chemostat model and in a global self-assembling ecosystem model.

  6. Niche Applications of Irreversible Electroporation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhatia, Shivank S; Arya, Rahul; Narayanan, Govindarajan

    2015-09-01

    Irreversible electroporation (IRE) induces cell death by exposing it to high-voltage, low-energy DC current pulses. The mechanism of cell death and healing is a departure from the other existing technologies such as radiofrequency ablation, microwave ablation, and cryoablation. These thermal ablative technologies have several applications in oncology but have limitations that have also been established. IRE has shown promise to overcome some of these limitations and has enabled the use of an ablative technology in treating lesions close to the bile ducts and vasculature and in organs such as the pancreas. This review highlights some of the niche applications of IRE and the data so far. PMID:26365547

  7. Niche-tracking migrants and niche-switching residents: evolution of climatic niches in New World warblers (Parulidae).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gómez, Camila; Tenorio, Elkin A; Montoya, Paola; Cadena, Carlos Daniel

    2016-02-10

    Differences in life-history traits between tropical and temperate lineages are often attributed to differences in their climatic niche dynamics. For example, the more frequent appearance of migratory behaviour in temperate-breeding species than in species originally breeding in the tropics is believed to have resulted partly from tropical climatic stability and niche conservatism constraining tropical species from shifting their ranges. However, little is known about the patterns and processes underlying climatic niche evolution in migrant and resident animals. We evaluated the evolution of overlap in climatic niches between seasons and its relationship to migratory behaviour in the Parulidae, a family of New World passerine birds. We used ordination methods to measure seasonal niche overlap and niche breadth of 54 resident and 49 migrant species and used phylogenetic comparative methods to assess patterns of climatic niche evolution. We found that despite travelling thousands of kilometres, migrants tracked climatic conditions across the year to a greater extent than tropical residents. Migrant species had wider niches than resident species, although residents as a group occupied a wider climatic space and niches of migrants and residents overlapped extensively. Neither breeding latitude nor migratory distance explained variation among species in climatic niche overlap between seasons. Our findings support the notion that tropical species have narrower niches than temperate-breeders, but does not necessarily constrain their ability to shift or expand their geographical ranges and become migratory. Overall, the tropics may have been historically less likely to experience the suite of components that generate strong selection pressures for the evolution of migratory behaviour. PMID:26865303

  8. 企业间竞合及生态位演化建模与仿真--以电信运营商与移动OTT商为例%Modeling and Simulation of Niche Evolution and Coopetition between Eenterprises---A Case Study in Telecom Operators and Mobile OTT Providers

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    黄万艮; 孙耀吾; 韩冰

    2015-01-01

    Because of the application of breakthrough innovations , enterprise niche of mobile OTT providers and telecom operators overlaps , and that disruptively impacts on the telecom operator's traditional business , and triggers a dispute . Based on niche theory , dif-ferent patterns of action between enterprises and their mechanism has led to the evolution of niche have been described and revealed through the application of Lotka-Volterra model , and niche evolutionary capability at different modes of action between enterprises has been simu-lated . Conclusions show that only taking a cooperative symbiosis model , companies will have co-evolutionary niche . On this basis , tele-com operators'niche expansion mode has been proposed from the perspective of platform innovations .%应用突破性创新技术的移动OTT服务商与电信运营商出现企业生态位重叠,颠覆性地影响了电信运营商的传统业务,引发纷争。本文依据生态位理论,应用Lotka-Volterra模型刻画和揭示企业间不同的作用模式及其导致生态位演化的机理,仿真在不同模式下企业生态位的进化能力。结论显示,只有采取合作共生的模式,企业生态位才会协同进化。在此基础上,本文从平台创新角度,提出了电信运营商生态位扩展方式。

  9. Identification of hepatic niche harboring human acute lymphoblastic leukemic cells via the SDF-1/CXCR4 axis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Itaru Kato

    Full Text Available In acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL patients, the bone marrow niche is widely known to be an important element of treatment response and relapse. Furthermore, a characteristic liver pathology observed in ALL patients implies that the hepatic microenvironment provides an extramedullary niche for leukemic cells. However, it remains unclear whether the liver actually provides a specific niche. The mechanism underlying this pathology is also poorly understood. Here, to answer these questions, we reconstituted the histopathology of leukemic liver by using patients-derived primary ALL cells into NOD/SCID/Yc (null mice. The liver pathology in this model was similar to that observed in the patients. By using this model, we clearly demonstrated that bile duct epithelial cells form a hepatic niche that supports infiltration and proliferation of ALL cells in the liver. Furthermore, we showed that functions of the niche are maintained by the SDF-1/CXCR4 axis, proposing a novel therapeutic approach targeting the extramedullary niche by inhibition of the SDF-1/CXCR4 axis. In conclusion, we demonstrated that the liver dissemination of leukemia is not due to nonselective infiltration, but rather systematic invasion and proliferation of leukemic cells in hepatic niche. Although the contribution of SDF-1/CXCR4 axis is reported in some cancer cells or leukemic niches such as bone marrow, we demonstrated that this axis works even in the extramedullary niche of leukemic cells. Our findings form the basis for therapeutic approaches that target the extramedullary niche by inhibiting the SDF-1/CXCR4 axis.

  10. Final Report: Natural State Models of The Geysers Geothermal System, Sonoma County, California

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    T. H. Brikowski; D. L. Norton; D. D. Blackwell

    2001-12-31

    Final project report of natural state modeling effort for The Geysers geothermal field, California. Initial models examined the liquid-dominated state of the system, based on geologic constraints and calibrated to match observed whole rock delta-O18 isotope alteration. These models demonstrated that the early system was of generally low permeability (around 10{sup -12} m{sup 2}), with good hydraulic connectivity at depth (along the intrusive contact) and an intact caprock. Later effort in the project was directed at development of a two-phase, supercritical flow simulation package (EOS1sc) to accompany the Tough2 flow simulator. Geysers models made using this package show that ''simmering'', or the transient migration of vapor bubbles through the hydrothermal system, is the dominant transition state as the system progresses to vapor-dominated. Such a system is highly variable in space and time, making the rock record more difficult to interpret, since pressure-temperature indicators likely reflect only local, short duration conditions.

  11. Does primary myelofibrosis involve a defective stem cell niche? From concept to evidence

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lataillade, J.J.; Pierre-Louis, O.; Uzan, G.;

    2008-01-01

    Primary myelofibrosis (PMF) is the rarest and the most severe Philadelphia-negative chronic myeloproliferative syndrome. By associating a clonal proliferation and a mobilization of hematopoietic stem cells from bone marrow to spleen with profound alterations of the stroma, PMF is a remarkable model...... in which deregulation of the stem cell niche is of utmost importance for the disease development. This paper reviews key data suggesting that an imbalance between endosteal and vascular niches participates in the development of clonal stem cell proliferation. Mechanisms by which bone marrow niches...... are altered with ensuing mobilization and homing of neoplastic hematopoietic stem cells in new or reinitialized niches in the spleen and liver are examined. Differences between signals delivered by both endosteal and vascular niches in the bone marrow and spleen of patients as well as the responsiveness...

  12. Geologic Map of the Death Valley Ground-water Model Area, Nevada and California

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The purpose of this map is to provide the surface expression of the geology in the Death Valley ground-water model area to be incorporated initially into a 3-D geologic framework model and eventually into a transient ground-water flow model by the U.S. Geological Survey (D'Agnese, 2000; D'Agnese and Faunt, 1999; Faunt and others, 1999; and O'Brien and others, 1999). This work has been conducted in collaboration with the U.S. Department of Energy in order to assess regional ground water flow near the Nevada Test Site (NTS) and the potential radioactive waste repository at Yucca Mountain. The map is centered on the NTS and its perimeter encircles the entire boundary of the numerical flow model area, covering a total area of 57,000 km2. The physiography, geology, and tectonics of the model area are extremely complex (Hunt and Mabey, 1966; Stewart, 1980; Jennings, 1994; Slate and others, 2000; Wright and others, 1999b). The northern and eastern part of the area includes typical Basin and Range topography consisting of north-trending block-faulted ranges and intervening valleys. The central part contains diverse ranges, plateaus, basins, and alluvial flats (for example, the NTS volcanic highlands and Amargosa Valley). The rugged ranges and deep basins of the Death Valley region in eastern California are characteristic of the topography of the southern and western parts of the map area. The map spans numerous tectonic subdivisions of the Great Basin. Deformation includes several generations of upper Paleozoic to Mesozoic thrust faulting that have been dismembered by extensive regional Tertiary to Quaternary normal and strike-slip faults. Much of this extensional and translational deformation is active today, with rates and amounts that vary from low to moderate in the central, eastern, and northern parts of the study area in southern Nevada, to very high in the southwestern and western parts in eastern California. For detailed discussion of the tectonic framework of the

  13. Bed composition generation for morphodynamic modeling: Case study of San Pablo Bay in California, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Wegen, M.; Dastgheib, A.; Jaffe, B.E.; Roelvink, D.

    2011-01-01

    Applications of process-based morphodynamic models are often constrained by limited availability of data on bed composition, which may have a considerable impact on the modeled morphodynamic development. One may even distinguish a period of "morphodynamic spin-up" in which the model generates the bed level according to some ill-defined initial bed composition rather than describing the realistic behavior of the system. The present paper proposes a methodology to generate bed composition of multiple sand and/or mud fractions that can act as the initial condition for the process-based numerical model Delft3D. The bed composition generation (BCG) run does not include bed level changes, but does permit the redistribution of multiple sediment fractions over the modeled domain. The model applies the concept of an active layer that may differ in sediment composition above an underlayer with fixed composition. In the case of a BCG run, the bed level is kept constant, whereas the bed composition can change. The approach is applied to San Pablo Bay in California, USA. Model results show that the BCG run reallocates sand and mud fractions over the model domain. Initially, a major sediment reallocation takes place, but development rates decrease in the longer term. Runs that take the outcome of a BCG run as a starting point lead to more gradual morphodynamic development. Sensitivity analysis shows the impact of variations in the morphological factor, the active layer thickness, and wind waves. An important but difficult to characterize criterion for a successful application of a BCG run is that it should not lead to a bed composition that fixes the bed so that it dominates the "natural" morphodynamic development of the system. Future research will focus on a decadal morphodynamic hindcast and comparison with measured bathymetries in San Pablo Bay so that the proposed methodology can be tested and optimized. ?? 2010 The Author(s).

  14. An evaluation of the variable-resolution CESM for modeling California's climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Xingying; Rhoades, Alan M.; Ullrich, Paul A.; Zarzycki, Colin M.

    2016-03-01

    In this paper, the recently developed variable-resolution option within the Community Earth System Model (VR-CESM) is assessed for long-term regional climate modeling of California at 0.25° (˜28 km) and 0.125° (˜14 km) horizontal resolutions. The mean climatology of near-surface temperature and precipitation is analyzed and contrasted with reanalysis, gridded observational data sets, and a traditional regional climate model (RCM)—the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Statistical metrics for model evaluation and tests for differential significance have been extensively applied. With only prescribed sea surface temperatures, VR-CESM tended to produce a warmer summer (by about 1-3°C) and overestimated overall winter precipitation (about 25%-35%) compared to reference data sets. Increasing resolution from 0.25° to 0.125° did not produce a statistically significant improvement in the model results. By comparison, the analogous WRF climatology (constrained laterally and at the sea surface by ERA-Interim reanalysis) was ˜1-3°C colder than the reference data sets, underestimated precipitation by ˜20%-30% at 27 km resolution, and overestimated precipitation by ˜65-85% at 9 km. Overall, VR-CESM produced comparable statistical biases to WRF in key climatological quantities. This assessment highlights the value of variable-resolution global climate models (VRGCMs) in capturing fine-scale atmospheric processes, projecting future regional climate, and addressing the computational expense of uniform-resolution global climate models.

  15. Stitch the niche - a practical philosophy and visual schematic for the niche concept

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    McInerny, Greg J.; Etienne, Rampal S.

    2012-01-01

    By over-focusing on precise definitions, ecology has produced a confused idea of the niche concept. This, our second paper, develops a practical philosophy for the niche that approaches the concept at the correct level of abstraction. We deconstruct the niche into effect and response components and

  16. Predicting the distribution of a parasite using the ecological niche model, GARP Predicción de la distribución de un parásito usando el modelo de nicho ecológico, GARP

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Terry R. Haverkost

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available The ecological niche of a parasite exists only at the nexus of certain abiotic and biotic conditions suitable for both the definitive and intermediate hosts. However, the life cycles of most parasites are not known, or are poorly known, and using known ranges of hosts to find endemic parasitic infections has been difficult. However, with ecological niche modeling, we can create potential range maps using known localities of infection. Testing the validity of such maps requires knowledge of the localities of other parasites with common history. Here, we find that the ecological niche of a tapeworm parasite of voles, Paranoplocephala macrocephala (Cestoda: Anoplocephalidae, allows prediction of the presence (in ecological and geographic space of 19 related parasite species from 3 genera in 23 different hosts throughout the Nearctic. These results give credence to the idea that this group shares similar life cycle requirements despite phylogenetic distance. This work further validates ecological niche modeling as a means by which to predict occurrence of parasites when not all facets of the life cycle are confirmed. Such inductive methods create the opportunity for deducing potential reservoir or intermediate hosts, and complementing studies of parasite biodiversity and community ecology.El nicho ecológico de un parásito existe sólo cuando coinciden condiciones abióticas y bióticas necesarias para los hospederos definitivos e intermediarios. No obstante, los ciclos de vida de la mayoría de los parásitos son poco conocidos; el usar áreas de distribución de hospederos para encontrar áreas endémicas de parasitismo ha resultado difícil. Con el modelado de nicho, se pueden producir mapas del área de distribución potencial con base en sitios conocidos de presencia. Para probar la validez de estos mapas, se requiere el conocimiento de sitios de presencia de otros parásitos relacionados. En este estudio, encontramos que el nicho ecol

  17. Looking for the elusive lung stem cell niche.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Banerjee, Ena Ray

    2014-01-01

    This discourse contains three perspectives on various aspects of Stem Cell Biology and tools available to study and translate into Regenerative Medicine. The lung incessantly faces onslaught of the environment, constantly undergoes oxidative stress, and is an important organ of detoxification. In degenerative diseases and inflammation, the lung undergoes irreversible remodeling that is difficult to therapeutically address and/or transplant a dying tissue. The other difficulty is to study its development and regenerative aspects to best address the aforementioned problems. This perspective therefore addresses- firstly, review of types of stem cells, their pathway of action and models in invertebrate organisms vis-a-vis microenvironment and its dynamics; secondly, stem cells in higher organisms and niche; and lastly data and inference on a novel approach to study stem cell destruction patterns in an injury model and information on putative lung stem cell niche. Stem cells are cryptic cells known to retain certain primitive characteristics making them akin to ancient cells of invertebrates, developmental stages in invertebrates and vertebrates and pliant cells of complex creatures like mammals that demonstrate stimulus-specific behavious, whether to clonally propagate or to remain well protected and hidden within specialized niches, or mobilize and differentiate into mature functionally operative cells to house-keep, repair injury or make new tissues. In lung fibrosis, alveolar epithelium degenerates progressively. In keeping with the goal of regenerative medicine, various models and assays to evaluate long and short term identity of stem cells and their niches is the subject of this perspective. We also report identification and characterization of functional lung stem cells to clarify how stem cell niches counteract this degenerative process. Inferences drawn from this injury model of lung degeneration using a short term assay by tracking side population cells and a

  18. Is There Any Evidence for Rapid, Genetically-Based, Climatic Niche Expansion in the Invasive Common Ragweed?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gallien, Laure; Thuiller, Wilfried; Fort, Noémie; Boleda, Marti; Alberto, Florian J.; Rioux, Delphine; Lainé, Juliette; Lavergne, Sébastien

    2016-01-01

    Climatic niche shifts have been documented in a number of invasive species by comparing the native and adventive climatic ranges in which they occur. However, these shifts likely represent changes in the realized climatic niches of invasive species, and may not necessarily be driven by genetic changes in climatic affinities. Until now the role of rapid niche evolution in the spread of invasive species remains a challenging issue with conflicting results. Here, we document a likely genetically-based climatic niche expansion of an annual plant invader, the common ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia L.), a highly allergenic invasive species causing substantial public health issues. To do so, we looked for recent evolutionary change at the upward migration front of its adventive range in the French Alps. Based on species climatic niche models estimated at both global and regional scales we stratified our sampling design to adequately capture the species niche, and localized populations suspected of niche expansion. Using a combination of species niche modeling, landscape genetics models and common garden measurements, we then related the species genetic structure and its phenotypic architecture across the climatic niche. Our results strongly suggest that the common ragweed is rapidly adapting to local climatic conditions at its invasion front and that it currently expands its niche toward colder and formerly unsuitable climates in the French Alps (i.e. in sites where niche models would not predict its occurrence). Such results, showing that species climatic niches can evolve on very short time scales, have important implications for predictive models of biological invasions that do not account for evolutionary processes. PMID:27116455

  19. Occupy the Financial Niche: Saturation and Crisis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Purica, Ionut

    The model presented is one theoretical approach within a broader research program that could verify the nonlinear conjectures made, such that to quantify and predict potential discontinuous behaviour. In this case, the crisis behaviour associated with financial funds reallocation among various credit instruments, described as memes with the sense of Dawkins, is shown to be of discontinuous nature stemming from a logistic penetration in the behaviour niche. Actually the logistic penetration is typical in creating cyclic behaviour of economic structures as shown by Marchetti and others from IIASA. A Fokker-Planck equation description results in a stationary solution having a bifurcation like solution with evolution trajectories on a `cusp' type catastrophe that may describe discontinuous decision behaviour.

  20. NICHE: The Non-Imaging CHErenkov Array

    CERN Document Server

    Bergman, Douglas

    2012-01-01

    The accurate measurement of the Cosmic Ray (CR) nuclear composition around and above the Knee (~ 10^15.5 eV) has been difficult due to uncertainties inherent to the measurement techniques and/or dependence on hadronic Monte Carlo simulation models required to interpret the data. Measurement of the Cherenkov air shower signal, calibrated with air fluorescence measurements, offers a methodology to provide an accurate measurement of the nuclear composition evolution over a large energy range. NICHE will use an array of widely-spaced, non-imaging Cherenkov counters to measure the amplitude and time-spread of the air shower Cherenkov signal to extract CR nuclear composition measurements and to cross-calibrate the Cherenkov energy and composition measurements with TA/TALE fluorescence and surface detector measurements.

  1. 高技术服务创新网络生态位重叠企业竞合关系建模与仿真%Modeling and Simulation of Coopetition Relationship among Niche Overlap Enterprises Featuring High-tech Service Innovation Network

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    孙耀吾; 韩冰; 黄万艮

    2014-01-01

    在高技术服务创新网络中,参与主体生态位重叠与竞合关系复杂。应用生态位理论中 Lotka-Volt-erra 原理,构建企业生态位演化模型群,并进行系统仿真,揭示不同类型高技术服务创新网络参与主体的动态竞合关系。研究结果表明,生态位重叠的创新主体间只有采取合作共生模式,才会产生企业生态位协同进化;片面追求自身发展的单向思维模式,反而可能导致企业生态位被逐渐侵蚀。该研究结论对于探索科学治理创新网络、促进企业协同发展具有重要启示。%Niche overlap and coopetition relationship of participants are complex in the high-tech service innovation network. We build a model group of enterprise niche evolutionary based on Lotka-Volterra principle of the niche theory with a simu-lation to reveal dynamic coopetition relationship among different participants in high-tech service innovation network.The conclusion shows that only if the innovators with niche overlap take cooperative symbiosis style,can they get niche coevolu-tion;unidirectional thinking of pursuing respective development may cause erosion of enterprise niche gradually,which have important enlightenment to exploring scientific governance of innovation network and promoting the collaborative de-velopment of enterprises.

  2. A comparison of groundwater storage using GRACE data, groundwater levels, and a hydrological model in California's Central Valley

    Science.gov (United States)

    Floyd, B.; Kuss, A. M.; Brandt, W. T.; Randall, J. N.; Bourai, A.; Newcomer, M. E.; Schmidt, C.; Skiles, J. W.

    2011-12-01

    The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE), a NASA satellite sensor, measures changes in total water storage (TWS) and may provide additional insight to the use of well-based data in California's Central Valley, an important agricultural region. Under current California law, well owners are not required to report groundwater extraction rates, making estimation of total groundwater extraction difficult. As a result, other groundwater change detection techniques must be used. GRACE was used to map changes in TWS between October 2002 and September 2009 for the three hydrological regions (the Sacramento River Basin, the San Joaquin River Basin, and the Tulare Lake Basin) encompassing the Central Valley aquifer. Net groundwater storage changes were calculated from the changes in TWS for each of the three hydrological regions and by incorporating estimates for additional components of the hydrological budget including precipitation, evapotranspiration, soil moisture, snow pack, and surface water storage. The calculated changes in groundwater storage were then compared to simulated values from the California Department of Water Resource's Central Valley Groundwater-Surface Water Simulation Model (C2VSIM) and their Water Data Library (WDL) Geographic Information System (GIS) change in storage tool. Downscaling GRACE data into 21 smaller Central Valley sub-regions included in C2VSIM was also evaluated. This work has the potential to improve California's groundwater measurements and existing hydrological models for the Central Valley.

  3. A Comparison of Groundwater Storage Using GRACE Data, Groundwater Levels, and a Hydrological Model in Californias Central Valley

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuss, Amber; Brandt, William; Randall, Joshua; Floyd, Bridget; Bourai, Abdelwahab; Newcomer, Michelle; Skiles, Joseph; Schmidt, Cindy

    2011-01-01

    The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) measures changes in total water storage (TWS) remotely, and may provide additional insight to the use of well-based data in California's agriculturally productive Central Valley region. Under current California law, well owners are not required to report groundwater extraction rates, making estimation of total groundwater extraction difficult. As a result, other groundwater change detection techniques may prove useful. From October 2002 to September 2009, GRACE was used to map changes in TWS for the three hydrological regions (the Sacramento River Basin, the San Joaquin River Basin, and the Tulare Lake Basin) encompassing the Central Valley aquifer. Net groundwater storage changes were calculated from the changes in TWS for each of the three hydrological regions and by incorporating estimates for additional components of the hydrological budget including precipitation, evapotranspiration, soil moisture, snow pack, and surface water storage. The calculated changes in groundwater storage were then compared to simulated values from the California Department of Water Resource's Central Valley Groundwater- Surface Water Simulation Model (C2VSIM) and their Water Data Library (WDL) Geographic Information System (GIS) change in storage tool. The results from the three methods were compared. Downscaling GRACE data into the 21 smaller Central Valley sub-regions included in C2VSIM was also evaluated. This work has the potential to improve California's groundwater resource management and use of existing hydrological models for the Central Valley.

  4. An ecosystem modelling approach to deriving viable harvest strategies for multispecies management of the Northern Gulf of California

    OpenAIRE

    Lecardi, Diego; Arreguín Sánchez, Francisco

    2009-01-01

    An ecosystem analysis was developed focusing on resource exploitation and biodiversity conservation for the Northern Gulf of California. The main tools employed were a trophic ecosystem model and time dynamic simulations. The ecosystem was represented by an Ecopath model that included 34 functional groups, from primary producers to top predators. It included relevant species in the area such as commercially important shrimp (e.g. Litopenaeus stylirostris) and highly endangered species (Phocoe...

  5. Modeled Impacts of Anthropogenic Stressors on Listed Species in Southern California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bell, M. D.; Hulton, H. L.; Allen, M. F.

    2013-12-01

    Based on data from the 2010 U.S. Census, Riverside County was the fastest growing county in California over the last decade. Urbanization has contributed to the disruption of the wildlands through fragmentation, changes in fire regimes, increased nitrogen deposition, and invasion of exotic plant species. These anthropogenic disturbances act independently and additively to disrupt environmental processes and community interactions even within protected wildlands. Here we incorporate these environmental stressors into Mahalanobis D2 species distribution models to measure the impact of multiple anthropogenic stressors on potential species distributions in Western Riverside County, with an emphasis on threatened species and species of concern. Species occurrence data from 1990 to 2010 of 6 rare and threatened species (2 bird, 2 mammal, and 2 plant) were used as inputs to develop a Habitat Suitability Index (HSI) for each species; potential species distributions were then modeled at a scale of a 250 m2 grid using terrain, climate, and vegetation community indices. We modeled the changing patterns of HSI across a landscape when anthropogenic stressors were added, individually and in combination. The changes in HSI of the rare and threatened species were compared to a common species from each group. Model outputs for endangered and threatened mammal and bird species show that there is a consistent decline in the HSI in cells with high nitrogen deposition and cells near urban development. The spatial shift in habitat suitability moved away from the environmental stressors, and there was also a reduction in area of patches modeled as high suitable habitat in all threatened species suggesting that the minimum habitat requirements for the species are reduced. There were not large changes in species distributions for the common species modeled. As rare species are often difficult to observe during surveys, monitoring the change of an easily measurable metric such a nitrogen

  6. Estimation of Evapotranspiration of Almond orchards using Remote Sensing based SEBAL model in Central Valley, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roy, S.; Ustin, S.; Kefauver, S. C.

    2009-12-01

    Evapotranspiration is one of the main components of the hydrologic cycle and its impact to hydrology, agriculture,forestry and environmental studies is very crucial. SEBAL (Surface Energy Balance Algorithm for Land) is an image-processing model comprised of twenty-five computational sub-models that computes actual evapotranspiration (ETa) and other energy exchanges as a component of energy balance which is used to derive the surface radiation balance equation for the net surface radiation flux (Rn) on a pixel-by-pixel basis. For this study, SEBAL method is applied to Level 1B dataset of visible, near-infrared and thermal infrared radiation channels of MASTER instrument on-board NASA-DC 8 flight. This paper uses the SEBAL method to (1) investigate the spatial distribution property of land surface temperature (Ls), NDVI, and ETa over the San Joaquin valley. (2) Estimate actual evapotranspiration of almond class on pixel-by-pixel basis in the Central valley, California. (3) Comparison of actual Evapotranspiration obtained from SEBAL model with reference evapotranspiration (Eto) using Penman Monteiths method based on the procedures and available data from California Irrigation Management Information System (CIMIS) stations. The results of the regression between extracted land surface temperature, NDVI and, evapotranspiration show negative (-) correlation. On the other hand Ls possessed a slightly stronger negative correlation with the ETa than with NDVI for Almond class. The correlation coefficient of actual ETa estimates from remote sensing with Reference ETo from Penmann Monteith are 0.8571. ETa estimated for almond crop from SEBAL were found to be almost same with the CIMIS_Penman Monteith method with bias of 0.77 mm and mean percentage difference is 0.10%. These results indicate that combination of MASTER data with surface meteorological data could provide an efficient tool for the estimation of regional actual ET used for water resources and irrigation scheduling

  7. Target Article with Commentaries: Developmental Niche Construction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flynn, Emma G.; Laland, Kevin N.; Kendal, Rachel L.; Kendal, Jeremy R.

    2013-01-01

    Niche construction is the modification of components of the environment through an organism's activities. Humans modify their environments mainly through ontogenetic and cultural processes, and it is this reliance on learning, plasticity and culture that lends human niche construction a special potency. In this paper we aim to facilitate…

  8. California's congestion management program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    One of the hottest topics in transportation planning today is California's Congestion Management Program (CMP). California's program has been suggested as a model to the rest of the United States for addressing transportation problems and for conforming to the federal Clean Air Act. This article introduces California's Congestion Management Program, describes some problems related to California's CMP legislation, outlines the major CMP elements, and briefly explains the issue of the environmental impact of CMPs. This information might assist others in developing their own CMP programs

  9. The clumping transition in niche competition: a robust critical phenomenon

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    We show analytically and numerically that the appearance of lumps and gaps in the distribution of n competing species along a niche axis is a robust phenomenon whenever the finiteness of the niche space is taken into account. In this case, depending on whether the niche width of the species σ is above or below a threshold σc, which for large n coincides with 2/n, there are two different regimes. For σ > σc the lumpy pattern emerges directly from the dominant eigenvector of the competition matrix because its corresponding eigenvalue becomes negative. For σ ≤ σc the lumpy pattern disappears. Furthermore, this clumping transition exhibits critical slowing down as σ is approached from above. We also find that the number of lumps of the species distribution versus σ displays a stair-step structure. The positions of these steps are distributed according to a power law. It is thus straightforward to predict the number of groups that can be packed along a niche axis and this value is consistent with field measurements for a wide range of the model parameters

  10. Niche as a determinant of word fate in online groups.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eduardo G Altmann

    Full Text Available Patterns of word use both reflect and influence a myriad of human activities and interactions. Like other entities that are reproduced and evolve, words rise or decline depending upon a complex interplay between their intrinsic properties and the environments in which they function. Using Internet discussion communities as model systems, we define the concept of a word niche as the relationship between the word and the characteristic features of the environments in which it is used. We develop a method to quantify two important aspects of the size of the word niche: the range of individuals using the word and the range of topics it is used to discuss. Controlling for word frequency, we show that these aspects of the word niche are strong determinants of changes in word frequency. Previous studies have already indicated that word frequency itself is a correlate of word success at historical time scales. Our analysis of changes in word frequencies over time reveals that the relative sizes of word niches are far more important than word frequencies in the dynamics of the entire vocabulary at shorter time scales, as the language adapts to new concepts and social groupings. We also distinguish endogenous versus exogenous factors as additional contributors to the fates of words, and demonstrate the force of this distinction in the rise of novel words. Our results indicate that short-term nonstationarity in word statistics is strongly driven by individual proclivities, including inclinations to provide novel information and to project a distinctive social identity.

  11. The Cell as the First Niche Construction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John S. Torday

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Niche construction nominally describes how organisms can form their own environments, increasing their capacity to adapt to their surroundings. It is hypothesized that the formation of the first cell as ‘internal’ Niche Construction was the foundation for life, and that subsequent niche constructions were iterative exaptations of that event. The first instantation of niche construction has been faithfully adhered to by returning to the unicellular state, suggesting that the life cycle is zygote to zygote, not adult to adult as is commonly held. The consequent interactions between niche construction and epigenetic inheritance provide a highly robust, interactive, mechanistic way of thinking about evolution being determined by initial conditions rather than merely by chance mutation and selection. This novel perspective offers an opportunity to reappraise the processes involved in evolution mechanistically, allowing for scientifically testable hypotheses rather than relying on metaphors, dogma, teleology and tautology.

  12. The Cell as the First Niche Construction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Torday, John S

    2016-01-01

    Niche construction nominally describes how organisms can form their own environments, increasing their capacity to adapt to their surroundings. It is hypothesized that the formation of the first cell as 'internal' Niche Construction was the foundation for life, and that subsequent niche constructions were iterative exaptations of that event. The first instantation of niche construction has been faithfully adhered to by returning to the unicellular state, suggesting that the life cycle is zygote to zygote, not adult to adult as is commonly held. The consequent interactions between niche construction and epigenetic inheritance provide a highly robust, interactive, mechanistic way of thinking about evolution being determined by initial conditions rather than merely by chance mutation and selection. This novel perspective offers an opportunity to reappraise the processes involved in evolution mechanistically, allowing for scientifically testable hypotheses rather than relying on metaphors, dogma, teleology and tautology. PMID:27136594

  13. A physical model for earthquakes. I - Fluctuations and interactions. II - Application to southern California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rundle, John B.

    1988-01-01

    The idea that earthquakes represent a fluctuation about the long-term motion of plates is expressed mathematically through the fluctuation hypothesis, under which all physical quantities which pertain to the occurance of earthquakes are required to depend on the difference between the present state of slip on the fault and its long-term average. It is shown that under certain circumstances the model fault dynamics undergo a sudden transition from a spatially ordered, temporally disordered state to a spatially disordered, temporally ordered state, and that the latter stages are stable for long intervals of time. For long enough faults, the dynamics are evidently chaotic. The methods developed are then used to construct a detailed model for earthquake dynamics in southern California. The result is a set of slip-time histories for all the major faults, which are similar to data obtained by geological trenching studies. Although there is an element of periodicity to the events, the patterns shift, change and evolve with time. Time scales for pattern evolution seem to be of the order of a thousand years for average recurring intervals of about a hundred years.

  14. A numerical test method of California bearing ratio on graded crushed rocks using particle flow modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yingjun Jiang

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available In order to better understand the mechanical properties of graded crushed rocks (GCRs and to optimize the relevant design, a numerical test method based on the particle flow modeling technique PFC2D is developed for the California bearing ratio (CBR test on GCRs. The effects of different testing conditions and micro-mechanical parameters used in the model on the CBR numerical results have been systematically studied. The reliability of the numerical technique is verified. The numerical results suggest that the influences of the loading rate and Poisson's ratio on the CBR numerical test results are not significant. As such, a loading rate of 1.0–3.0 mm/min, a piston diameter of 5 cm, a specimen height of 15 cm and a specimen diameter of 15 cm are adopted for the CBR numerical test. The numerical results reveal that the CBR values increase with the friction coefficient at the contact and shear modulus of the rocks, while the influence of Poisson's ratio on the CBR values is insignificant. The close agreement between the CBR numerical results and experimental results suggests that the numerical simulation of the CBR values is promising to help assess the mechanical properties of GCRs and to optimize the grading design. Besides, the numerical study can provide useful insights on the mesoscopic mechanism.

  15. Aeromagnetic map of the Death Valley ground-water model area, Nevada and California; TOPICAL

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This aeromagnetic map of the Death Valley ground-water model area was prepared from numerous separate aeromagnetic surveys that were gridded, merged, and described by Hildenbrand and Kucks (1988) and by McCafferty and Grauch (1997). These data are available in grid format from the EROS Data Center, U.S. Geological Survey, Sioux Falls, South Dakota, 57198, and from the National Geophysical Data Center, 325 Broadway, E/GC4, Boulder, Colo., 80303. Magnetic investigations of the Death Valley ground-water basin are part of an interagency effort by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the U.S. Department of Energy (Interagency Agreement DE-AI08-96NV11967) to help characterize the geology and hydrology of southwest Nevada and adjacent parts of California (Blakely and others, 2000b). The Death Valley ground-water model is located between lat 35 degrees 00' and 38 degrees 15' N., and long 115 degrees and 118 degrees W

  16. Final report on "Modeling Diurnal Variations of California Land Biosphere CO2 Fluxes"

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fung, Inez

    2014-07-28

    In Mediterranean climates, the season of water availability (winter) is out of phase with the season of light availability and atmospheric demand for moisture (summer). Multi-year half-hourly observations of sap flow velocities in 26 evergreen trees in a small watershed in Northern California show that different species of evergreen trees have different seasonalities of transpiration: Douglas-firs respond immediately to the first winter rain, while Pacific madrones have peak transpiration in the dry summer. Using these observations, we have derived species-specific parameterization of normalized sap flow velocities in terms of insolation, vapor pressure deficit and near-surface soil moisture. A simple 1-D boundary layer model showed that afternoon temperatures may be higher by 1 degree Celsius in an area with Douglas-firs than with Pacific madrones. The results point to the need to develop a new representation of subsurface moisture, in particular pools beneath the organic soil mantle and the vadose zone. Our ongoing and future work includes coupling our new parameterization of transpiration with new representation of sub-surface moisture in saprolite and weathered bedrock. The results will be implemented in a regional climate model to explore vegetation-climate feedbacks, especially in the dry season.

  17. Calibration of numerical models for small debris flows in Yosemite Valley, California, USA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Bertolo

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available This study compares documented debris flow runout distances with numerical simulations in the Yosemite Valley of California, USA, where about 15% of historical events of slope instability can be classified as debris flows and debris slides (Wieczorek and Snyder, 2004. To model debris flows in the Yosemite Valley, we selected six streams with evidence of historical debris flows; three of the debris flow deposits have single channels, and the other three split their pattern in the fan area into two or more channels. From field observations all of the debris flows involved coarse material, with only very small clay content. We applied the one dimensional DAN (Dynamic ANalysis model (Hungr, 1995 and the two-dimensional FLO-2D model (O'Brien et al., 1993 to predict and compare the runout distance and the velocity of the debris flows observed in the study area. As a first step, we calibrated the parameters for the two softwares through the back analysis of three debris- flows channels using a trial-and-error procedure starting with values suggested in the literature. In the second step we applied the selected values to the other channels, in order to evaluate their predictive capabilities. After parameter calibration using three debris flows we obtained results similar to field observations We also obtained a good agreement between the two models for velocities. Both models are strongly influenced by topography: we used the 30 m cell size DTM available for the study area, that is probably not accurate enough for a highly detailed analysis, but it can be sufficient for a first screening.

  18. Geographical parthenogenesis: General purpose genotypes and frozen niche variation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vrijenhoek, Robert C.; Parker, Dave

    2009-01-01

    hypotheses concerning the evolution of niche breadth in asexual species - the "general-purpose genotype" (GPG) and "frozen niche-variation" (FNV) models. The two models are often portrayed as mutually exclusive, respectively viewing clonal lineages as generalists versus specialists. Nonetheless......, they are complex syllogisms that share common assumptions regarding the likely origins of clonal diversity and the strength of interclonal selection in shaping the ecological breadth of asexual populations. Both models find support in ecological and phylogeographic studies of a wide range of organisms......, and sometimes generalist and specialist traits (e.g., physiological tolerance, microspatial preference, seasonal abundance, food habits, etc.) are found together in an asexual organism. Ultimately, persistent natural clones should be viewed as microspecies in ecological models that consider spatial and temporal...

  19. A statistical learning framework for groundwater nitrate models of the Central Valley, California, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nolan, Bernard T.; Fienen, Michael N.; Lorenz, David L.

    2015-01-01

    We used a statistical learning framework to evaluate the ability of three machine-learning methods to predict nitrate concentration in shallow groundwater of the Central Valley, California: boosted regression trees (BRT), artificial neural networks (ANN), and Bayesian networks (BN). Machine learning methods can learn complex patterns in the data but because of overfitting may not generalize well to new data. The statistical learning framework involves cross-validation (CV) training and testing data and a separate hold-out data set for model evaluation, with the goal of optimizing predictive performance by controlling for model overfit. The order of prediction performance according to both CV testing R2 and that for the hold-out data set was BRT > BN > ANN. For each method we identified two models based on CV testing results: that with maximum testing R2 and a version with R2 within one standard error of the maximum (the 1SE model). The former yielded CV training R2 values of 0.94–1.0. Cross-validation testing R2 values indicate predictive performance, and these were 0.22–0.39 for the maximum R2 models and 0.19–0.36 for the 1SE models. Evaluation with hold-out data suggested that the 1SE BRT and ANN models predicted better for an independent data set compared with the maximum R2 versions, which is relevant to extrapolation by mapping. Scatterplots of predicted vs. observed hold-out data obtained for final models helped identify prediction bias, which was fairly pronounced for ANN and BN. Lastly, the models were compared with multiple linear regression (MLR) and a previous random forest regression (RFR) model. Whereas BRT results were comparable to RFR, MLR had low hold-out R2 (0.07) and explained less than half the variation in the training data. Spatial patterns of predictions by the final, 1SE BRT model agreed reasonably well with previously observed patterns of nitrate occurrence in groundwater of the Central Valley.

  20. A statistical learning framework for groundwater nitrate models of the Central Valley, California, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nolan, Bernard T.; Fienen, Michael N.; Lorenz, David L.

    2015-12-01

    We used a statistical learning framework to evaluate the ability of three machine-learning methods to predict nitrate concentration in shallow groundwater of the Central Valley, California: boosted regression trees (BRT), artificial neural networks (ANN), and Bayesian networks (BN). Machine learning methods can learn complex patterns in the data but because of overfitting may not generalize well to new data. The statistical learning framework involves cross-validation (CV) training and testing data and a separate hold-out data set for model evaluation, with the goal of optimizing predictive performance by controlling for model overfit. The order of prediction performance according to both CV testing R2 and that for the hold-out data set was BRT > BN > ANN. For each method we identified two models based on CV testing results: that with maximum testing R2 and a version with R2 within one standard error of the maximum (the 1SE model). The former yielded CV training R2 values of 0.94-1.0. Cross-validation testing R2 values indicate predictive performance, and these were 0.22-0.39 for the maximum R2 models and 0.19-0.36 for the 1SE models. Evaluation with hold-out data suggested that the 1SE BRT and ANN models predicted better for an independent data set compared with the maximum R2 versions, which is relevant to extrapolation by mapping. Scatterplots of predicted vs. observed hold-out data obtained for final models helped identify prediction bias, which was fairly pronounced for ANN and BN. Lastly, the models were compared with multiple linear regression (MLR) and a previous random forest regression (RFR) model. Whereas BRT results were comparable to RFR, MLR had low hold-out R2 (0.07) and explained less than half the variation in the training data. Spatial patterns of predictions by the final, 1SE BRT model agreed reasonably well with previously observed patterns of nitrate occurrence in groundwater of the Central Valley.

  1. Not all renal stem cell niches are the same: anatomy of an evolution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Clara Gerosa

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available The renal stem cell niche represents the most important structure of the developing kidney, responsible for nephrogenesis. Recently, some Authors have reported, at ultrastructural level, a previously unknown complexity of the architecture of renal stem cell niche in experimental models. This study was aimed at studying, at histological level, the anatomy of renal stem cell niches in the human fetal kidney. To this end, ten fetal kidneys, whose gestational ages ranged from 11 up to 24 weeks, were studied. H&E-stained sections were observed at high power. The study of the anatomy of renal stem cell niches in the human kidney revealed a previously unreported complexity: some niches appeared as a roundish arrangement of mesenchymal cells; others showed the initial phases of induction by ureteric buds; in other niches the process of mesenchymal epithelial transition was more evident; finally, in other stem cell niches the first signs of nephron origin were detectable. These findings suggest the existence of niches with different anatomy in the same kidney, indicating different stages of evolution even in adjacent niches. All stem cell niches were in strict contact with the capsular cells, suggesting a major role of the renal capsule in nephrogenesis. Finally, our study confirms the existence of a strict contact between the bud tip cells and the surrounding mesenchyme in the human developing kidney, giving a morphological support to the theory of intercellular channels allowing the passage of transcription factors from the epithelial to the mesenchymal stem/progenitors cells.Proceedings of the 2nd International Course on Perinatal Pathology (part of the 11th International Workshop on Neonatology · October 26th-31st, 2015 · Cagliari (Italy · October 31st, 2015 · Stem cells: present and future Guest Editors: Gavino Faa, Vassilios Fanos, Antonio Giordano

  2. Niche-habitat mechanisms and biotic interactions explain the coexistence and abundance of congeneric sandgrouse species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benítez-López, Ana; Viñuela, Javier; Suárez, Francisco; Hervás, Israel; García, Jesús T

    2014-09-01

    Ascertaining which niche processes allow coexistence between closely related species is of special interest in ecology. We quantified variations in the environmental niches and densities of two congeneric species, the pin-tailed and the black-bellied sandgrouse (Pterocles alchata and Pterocles orientalis) in allopatry and sympatry under similar abiotic, habitat and dispersal contexts to understand their coexistence. Using principal component analysis, we defined environmental gradients (niche dimensions) including abiotic, habitat and anthropogenic variables, and calculated niche breadth, position and overlap of both species in sympatry and allopatry. Additionally, sandgrouse density was modelled as a function of the niche dimensions and the density of the other species. We found evidence that each species occupies distinct environmental niches in sympatry and in allopatry. The black-bellied sandgrouse exploits a broader range of environmental conditions (wider niche breadth) while the pin-tailed sandgrouse reaches high densities where conditions seem to match its optimum. In sympatry, both species shift their niches to intermediate positions, indicating the importance of abiotic factors in setting coexistence areas. Environmental conditions determine regional densities of pin-tailed sandgrouse whereas biotic interactions explain the density of the black-bellied sandgrouse in areas with abiotic conditions similarly conducive for both species. Highly suitable areas for the pin-tailed sandgrouse fall beyond the upper thermal limit of the black-bellied sandgrouse, leading to niche segregation and low densities for the latter. Finally, local niche shift and expansion plus possible heterospecific aggregation allow the pin-tailed sandgrouse to thrive in a priori less favourable environments. This work provides insight into how different mechanisms allow species coexistence and how species densities vary in sympatry compared to allopatry as a result of environmental

  3. Adhesion in the stem cell niche: biological roles and regulation

    OpenAIRE

    Chen, Shuyi; Lewallen, Michelle; Xie, Ting

    2013-01-01

    Stem cell self-renewal is tightly controlled by the concerted action of stem cell-intrinsic factors and signals within the niche. Niche signals often function within a short range, allowing cells in the niche to self-renew while their daughters outside the niche differentiate. Thus, in order for stem cells to continuously self-renew, they are often anchored in the niche via adhesion molecules. In addition to niche anchoring, however, recent studies have revealed other important roles for adhe...

  4. CyberShake: A Physics-Based Seismic Hazard Model for Southern California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graves, R.; Jordan, T.H.; Callaghan, S.; Deelman, E.; Field, E.; Juve, G.; Kesselman, C.; Maechling, P.; Mehta, G.; Milner, K.; Okaya, D.; Small, P.; Vahi, K.

    2011-01-01

    CyberShake, as part of the Southern California Earthquake Center's (SCEC) Community Modeling Environment, is developing a methodology that explicitly incorporates deterministic source and wave propagation effects within seismic hazard calculations through the use of physics-based 3D ground motion simulations. To calculate a waveform-based seismic hazard estimate for a site of interest, we begin with Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 2.0 (UCERF2.0) and identify all ruptures within 200 km of the site of interest. We convert the UCERF2.0 rupture definition into multiple rupture variations with differing hypocenter locations and slip distributions, resulting in about 415,000 rupture variations per site. Strain Green Tensors are calculated for the site of interest using the SCEC Community Velocity Model, Version 4 (CVM4), and then, using reciprocity, we calculate synthetic seismograms for each rupture variation. Peak intensity measures are then extracted from these synthetics and combined with the original rupture probabilities to produce probabilistic seismic hazard curves for the site. Being explicitly site-based, CyberShake directly samples the ground motion variability at that site over many earthquake cycles (i. e., rupture scenarios) and alleviates the need for the ergodic assumption that is implicitly included in traditional empirically based calculations. Thus far, we have simulated ruptures at over 200 sites in the Los Angeles region for ground shaking periods of 2 s and longer, providing the basis for the first generation CyberShake hazard maps. Our results indicate that the combination of rupture directivity and basin response effects can lead to an increase in the hazard level for some sites, relative to that given by a conventional Ground Motion Prediction Equation (GMPE). Additionally, and perhaps more importantly, we find that the physics-based hazard results are much more sensitive to the assumed magnitude-area relations and

  5. Desert shrub responses to experimental modification of precipitation seasonality and soil depth: relationship to the two-layer model and ecohydrological niche

    Science.gov (United States)

    Germino, Matthew J.; Reinhardt, Keith

    2013-01-01

    1. Ecohydrological niches are important for understanding plant community responses to climate shifts, particularly in dry lands. According to the two-layer hypothesis, selective use of deep-soil water increases growth or persistence of woody species during warm and dry summer periods and thereby contributes to their coexistence with shallow-rooted herbs in dry ecosystems. The resource-pool hypothesis further suggests that shallow-soil water benefits growth of all plants while deep-soil water primarily enhances physiological maintenance and survival of woody species. Few studies have directly tested these by manipulating deep-soil water availability and observing the long-term outcomes. 2. We predicted that factors promoting infiltration and storage of water in deep soils, specifically greater winter precipitation and soil depth, would enhance Artemisia tridentata (big sagebrush) in cold, winter-wet/summer-dry desert. Sagebrush responses to 20 years of winter irrigation were compared to summer- or no irrigation, on plots having relatively deep or shallow soils (2 m vs. 1 m depths). 3. Winter irrigation increased sagebrush cover, and crown and canopy volumes, but not density (individuals/plot) compared to summer or no irrigation, on deep-soil plots. On shallow-soil plots, winter irrigation surprisingly decreased shrub cover and size, and summer irrigation had no effect. Furthermore, multiple regression suggested that the variations in growth were related (i) firstly to water in shallow soils (0-0.2 m) and secondly to deeper soils (> 1 m deep) and (ii) more by springtime than by midsummer soil water. Water-use efficiency increased considerably on shallow soils without irrigation and was lowest with winter irrigation. 4. Synthesis. Sagebrush was more responsive to the seasonal timing of precipitation than to total annual precipitation. Factors that enhanced deep-water storage (deeper soils plus more winter precipitation) led to increases in Artemisia tridentata that

  6. Niche-specific cognitive strategies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hulgard, K.; Ratcliffe, J. M.

    2014-01-01

    that bats made their decisions based on information acquired through echolocation. Previous studies have shown that bat species that eat mainly nectar and fruit rely heavily on spatial memory, reflecting the relative consistency of distribution of fruit and nectar compared with insects. Our results......Related species with different diets are predicted to rely on different cognitive strategies: those best suited for locating available and appropriate foods. Here we tested two predictions of the niche-specific cognitive strategies hypothesis in bats, which suggests that predatory species should...... rely more on object memory than on spatial memory for finding food and that the opposite is true of frugivorous and nectivorous species. Specifically, we predicted that: (1) predatory bats would readily learn to associate shapes with palatable prey and (2) once bats had made such associations, these...

  7. The three phases of the ensemble forecasting of niche models: geographic range and shifts in climatically suitable areas of Utetheisa ornatrix (Lepidoptera, Arctiidae) As três fases da projeção combinada de modelos de nicho: distribuição geográfica e deslocamento de áreas climaticamente adequadas para Utetheisa ornatrix (Lepidoptera, Arctiidae)

    OpenAIRE

    José Alexandre Felizola Diniz Filho; Viviane G. Ferro; Thiago Santos; João Carlos Nabout; Ricardo Dobrovolski; Paulo De Marco Jr

    2010-01-01

    Species' geographic ranges are usually considered as basic units in macroecology and biogeography, yet it is still difficult to measure them accurately for many reasons. About 20 years ago, researchers started using local data on species' occurrences to estimate broad scale ranges, thereby establishing the niche modeling approach. However, there are still many problems in model evaluation and application, and one of the solutions is to find a consensus solution among models derived from diffe...

  8. Quantifying and modeling soil erosion and sediment export from construction sites in southern California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wernet, A. K.; Beighley, R. E.

    2006-12-01

    Soil erosion is a power process that continuously alters the Earth's landscape. Human activities, such as construction and agricultural practices, and natural events, such as forest fires and landslides, disturb the landscape and intensify erosion processes leading to sudden increases in runoff sediment concentrations and degraded stream water quality. Understanding soil erosion and sediment transport processes is of great importance to researchers and practicing engineers, who routinely use models to predict soil erosion and sediment movement for varied land use and climate change scenarios. However, existing erosion models are limited in their applicability to constructions sites which have highly variable soil conditions (density, moisture, surface roughness, and best management practices) that change often in both space and time. The goal of this research is to improve the understanding, predictive capabilities and integration of treatment methodologies for controlling soil erosion and sediment export from construction sites. This research combines modeling with field monitoring and laboratory experiments to quantify: (a) spatial and temporal distribution of soil conditions on construction sites, (b) soil erosion due to event rainfall, and (c) potential offsite discharge of sediment with and without treatment practices. Field sites in southern California were selected to monitor the effects of common construction activities (ex., cut/fill, grading, foundations, roads) on soil conditions and sediment discharge. Laboratory experiments were performed in the Soil Erosion Research Laboratory (SERL), part of the Civil and Environmental Engineering department at San Diego State University, to quantify the impact of individual factors leading to sediment export. SERL experiments utilize a 3-m by 10-m tilting soil bed with soil depths up to 1 m, slopes ranging from 0 to 50 percent, and rainfall rates up to 150 mm/hr (6 in/hr). Preliminary modeling, field and laboratory

  9. Tectonic map of the Death Valley ground-water model area, Nevada and California

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The purpose of this map is to provide tectonic interpretations in the Death Valley ground-water model area to be incorporated into a transient ground-water flow model by the U.S. Geological Survey (D'Agnese, 2000; D'Agnese and Faunt, 1999; Faunt and others, 1999; and O'Brien and others, 1999). This work has been conducted in collaboration with the U.S. Department of Energy in order to assess regional ground-water flow near the Nevada Test Site (NTS) and the potential radioactive waste repository at Yucca Mountain. The map is centered on the NTS and its perimeter encircles the entire boundary of the numerical flow model area, covering a total area of 57,000 square kilometers. This tectonic map is a derivative map of the geologic map of the Death Valley ground-water model, Nevada and California (Workman and others, 2002). Structures portrayed on the tectonic map were selected from the geologic map based upon several criteria including amount of offset on faults, regional significance of structures, fault juxtaposition of rocks with significantly different hydrologic properties, and the hydrologic properties of the structures themselves. Inferred buried structures in the basins were included on the map (blue and light blue dotted lines) based on interpretation of geophysical data (Ponce and others, 2001; Ponce and Blakely, 2001; Blakely and Ponce, 2001). In addition, various regional trends of fault zones have been delineated which are composed of multiple smaller scale features. In some cases, these structures are deeply buried and their location is based primarily on geophysical evidence. In all cases, these zones (shown as broad red and blue stippled bands on the map) are significant structures in the region. Finally, surface exposures of Precambrian crystalline rocks and igneous intrusions of various ages are highlighted (red and blue patterns) on the map; these rocks generally act as barriers to groundwater flow unless significantly fractured

  10. Modeling of Geodetic Crustal Motion Velocities in Southern California: Undergraduate Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGill, S. F.; Barley, M. E.; Hams, J. E.; Hobart, K.; Ramirez, J.; Fryxell, J. E.; Lyzenga, G. A.; McGill, J. D.

    2003-12-01

    With funding from the National Science Foundation's Opportunities for Enhancing Diversity in the Geosciences, we have undertaken a project with two primary goals: (1) to introduce undergraduate students and K-14 educators to research in geology/geophysics, and (2) to use GPS to monitor deformation across the boundary between the Pacific and North American plates in southern California, and to model the slip on specific faults that could be responsible for that deformation. Starting in July 2002, we collected campaign-style GPS data twice a year from 13 sites along a line across the San Andreas and San Jacinto faults from Norco through San Bernardino to Lucerne Valley. We are also modeling data from the SCEC Crustal Deformation Velocity Map 2.0 [http://www.scecdc.scec.org/group_e/release.v2/]. Our initial approach has been to use a one-dimensional model of dislocations in an elastic half-space. We are studying the portion of the plate boundary from San Bernardino southward to the U.S.-Mexico border. We have divided this region into seven transects that are perpendicular to the plate boundary. We used a spreadsheet macro to systematically model a range of slip rates and locking depths for each fault. Out of hundreds or thousands of possible combinations for each transect, we sorted the models according to their goodness of fit, using the sum of the squares of the residuals as a criterion. We are also beginning to use the program Simplex (G. Lyzenga. J. Parker) to model the velocity data from all transects simultaneously. This will allow us to take into account the complex fault geometry of the region. Our preliminary results from the one-dimensional modeling suggest that the best-fitting slip rate of the San Andreas fault is 26 mm/yr for the section from Indio to Durmid. However, slip rates in the range of 20-30 mm/yr also fit the geodetic data relatively well. Slip rates of 15 or 35 mm/yr do not fit well. For the San Jacinto fault, the best-fitting slip rate is 13

  11. Conclusions about niche expansion in introduced Impatiens walleriana populations depend on method of analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lisa Mandle

    Full Text Available Determining the degree to which climate niches are conserved across plant species' native and introduced ranges is valuable to developing successful strategies to limit the introduction and spread of invasive plants, and also has important ecological and evolutionary implications. Here, we test whether climate niches differ between native and introduced populations of Impatiens walleriana, globally one of the most popular horticultural species. We use approaches based on both raw climate data associated with occurrence points and ecological niche models (ENMs developed with Maxent. We include comparisons of climate niche breadth in both geographic and environmental spaces, taking into account differences in available habitats between the distributional areas. We find significant differences in climate envelopes between native and introduced populations when comparing raw climate variables, with introduced populations appearing to expand into wetter and cooler climates. However, analyses controlling for differences in available habitat in each region do not indicate expansion of climate niches. We therefore cannot reject the hypothesis that observed differences in climate envelopes reflect only the limited environments available within the species' native range in East Africa. Our results suggest that models built from only native range occurrence data will not provide an accurate prediction of the potential for invasiveness if applied to areas containing a greater range of environmental combinations, and that tests of niche expansion may overestimate shifts in climate niches if they do not control carefully for environmental differences between distributional areas.

  12. Simulation of proliferation and differentiation of cells in a stem-cell niche

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhdanov, Vladimir P.

    2008-10-01

    Stem-cell niches represent microscopic compartments formed of environmental cells that nurture stem cells and enable them to maintain tissue homeostasis. The spatio-temporal kinetics of proliferation and differentiation of cells in such niches depend on the specifics of the niche structure and on adhesion and communication between cells and may also be influenced by spatial constraints on cell division. We propose a generic lattice model, taking all these factors into account, and systematically illustrate their role. The model is motivated by the experimental data available for the niches located in the subventricular zone of adult mammalian brain. The general conclusions drawn from our Monte Carlo simulations are applicable to other niches as well. One of our main findings is that the kinetics under consideration are highly stochastic due to a relatively small number of cells proliferating and differentiating in a niche and the autocatalytic character of the symmetric cell division. In particular, the kinetics exhibit huge stochastic bursts especially if the adhesion between cells is taken into account. In addition, the results obtained show that despite the small number of cells present in stem-cell niches, their arrangement can be predetermined to appreciable extent provided that the adhesion of different cells is different so that they tend to segregate.

  13. Seismically induced landslide hazard and exposure modelling in Southern California based on the 1994 Northridge, California earthquake event

    OpenAIRE

    Budimir, M.E.A.; Atkinson, P. M.; Lewis, H.G.

    2015-01-01

    Quantitative modelling of landslide hazard, as opposed to landslide susceptibility, as a function of the earthquake trigger is vital in understanding and assessing future potential exposure to landsliding. Logistic regression analysis is a method commonly used to assess susceptibility to landsliding; however, estimating probability of landslide hazard as a result of an earthquake trigger is rarely undertaken. This paper utilises a very detailed landslide inventory map and a comprehensive data...

  14. 2009-2011 CA Coastal California TopoBathy Merged Project Digital Elevation Model (DEM)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This project merged recently collected topographic, bathymetric, and acoustic elevation data along the entire California coastline from approximately the 10 meter...

  15. 2013 NOAA Coastal California TopoBathy Merge Project Digital Elevation Model (DEM)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This project merged recently collected topographic, bathymetric, and acoustic elevation data along the entire California coastline from approximately the 10 meter...

  16. INTEGRATED MODELING OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTAL OCEAN: BIOGEOCHEMISTRY AND PARTICULATE DYNAMICS

    OpenAIRE

    Stolzenbach, Keith D.; Mcwilliams, James C.

    2002-01-01

    The Southern California Coastal Ocean (SCCO), defined as the region inclusive of the Southern California Bight and the Santa Barbara Channel, from the shoreline to beyond the continental shelf, has significant anthropogenic injections of many materials through the air, rivers, runoff, outfalls, sediments, and marine spills. These inputs are superposed on a dynamic system of internal processes including water motions, biological production in the surface layers, particle sinking, dissolution...

  17. Estimating California ecosystem carbon change using process model and land cover disturbance data: 1951-2000

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, J.; Vogelmann, J.E.; Zhu, Z.; Key, C.H.; Sleeter, B.M.; Price, D.T.; Chen, J.M.; Cochrane, M.A.; Eidenshink, J.C.; Howard, S.M.; Bliss, N.B.; Jiang, H.

    2011-01-01

    Land use change, natural disturbance, and climate change directly alter ecosystem productivity and carbon stock level. The estimation of ecosystem carbon dynamics depends on the quality of land cover change data and the effectiveness of the ecosystem models that represent the vegetation growth processes and disturbance effects. We used the Integrated Biosphere Simulator (IBIS) and a set of 30- to 60-m resolution fire and land cover change data to examine the carbon changes of California's forests, shrublands, and grasslands. Simulation results indicate that during 1951-2000, the net primary productivity (NPP) increased by 7%, from 72.2 to 77.1TgCyr-1 (1 teragram=1012g), mainly due to CO2 fertilization, since the climate hardly changed during this period. Similarly, heterotrophic respiration increased by 5%, from 69.4 to 73.1TgCyr-1, mainly due to increased forest soil carbon and temperature. Net ecosystem production (NEP) was highly variable in the 50-year period but on average equalled 3.0TgCyr-1 (total of 149TgC). As with NEP, the net biome production (NBP) was also highly variable but averaged -0.55TgCyr-1 (total of -27.3TgC) because NBP in the 1980s was very low (-5.34TgCyr-1). During the study period, a total of 126Tg carbon were removed by logging and land use change, and 50Tg carbon were directly removed by wildland fires. For carbon pools, the estimated total living upper canopy (tree) biomass decreased from 928 to 834TgC, and the understory (including shrub and grass) biomass increased from 59 to 63TgC. Soil carbon and dead biomass carbon increased from 1136 to 1197TgC. Our analyses suggest that both natural and human processes have significant influence on the carbon change in California. During 1951-2000, climate interannual variability was the key driving force for the large interannual changes of ecosystem carbon source and sink at the state level, while logging and fire were the dominant driving forces for carbon balances in several specific

  18. Applicability of Related Data, Algorithms, and Models to the Simulation of Ground-Coupled Residential Hot Water Piping in California

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Residential water heating is an important consideration in California?s building energy efficiency standard. Explicit treatment of ground-coupled hot water piping is one of several planned improvements to the standard. The properties of water, piping, insulation, backfill materials, concrete slabs, and soil, their interactions, and their variations with temperature and over time are important considerations in the required supporting analysis. Heat transfer algorithms and models devised for generalized, hot water distribution system, ground-source heat pump and ground heat exchanger, nuclear waste repository, buried oil pipeline, and underground electricity transmission cable applications can be adapted to the simulation of under-slab water piping. A numerical model that permits detailed examination of and broad variations in many inputs while employing a technique to conserve computer run time is recommended.

  19. Performance and Economic Modeling of Horizontally Drilled Ground-Source Heat Pumps in Select California Climates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wiryadinata, Steven

    Service life modeling was performed to gage the viability of unitary 3.5 kWt, ground-source terminal heat pumps (GTHP) employing horizontal directionally drilled geothermal heat exchangers (GHX) over air-source terminal heat pumps (PTHP) in hotels and motels and residential apartment building sectors in California's coastal and inland climates. Results suggest the GTHP can reduce hourly peak demand for the utility by 7%-25% compared to PTHP, depending on the climate and building type. The annual energy savings, which range from -1% to 5%, are highly dependent on the GTHP pump energy use relative to the energy savings attributed to the difference in ground and air temperatures (DeltaT). In mild climates with small ?T, the pump energy use may overcome any advantage to utilizing a GHX. The majority of total levelized cost savings - ranging from 0.18/ft2 to 0.3/ft 2 - are due to reduced maintenance and lifetime capital cost normally associated with geothermal heat pump systems. Without these reductions (not validated for the GTHP system studied), the GTHP technology does not appear to offer significant advantages over PTHP in the climate zones studied here. The GTHP levelized cost was most sensitive to variations in installed cost and in some cases, energy use (influenced by climate zone choice), which together highlights the importance of climate selection for installation, and the need for larger market penetration of ground-source systems in order to bring down installed costs as the technology matures.

  20. An integrated ecosystem trophic model for the North and Central Gulf of California: An alternative view for endemic species conservation

    OpenAIRE

    Díaz-Uribe, J. Gabriel; Arreguín Sánchez, Francisco; Lercari-Bernier, Diego; Cruz Escalona, Víctor Hugo; Zetina Rejón, Manuel Jesús; Del Monte Luna, Pablo; Martínez-Aguilar, Susana

    2012-01-01

    Understanding of the intricate interactions of endemic species with anthropogenic impacts of diverse economic interests on ecosystems is of paramount importance to the implementation of effective con-servation programs. A trophic mass-balance model was used to analyze the structural properties of the North and Central Gulf of California (NC-GulfCal) ecosystem, the most important fishing area in Mexico and where conservation efforts for protecting the endangered endemic porpoise known as vaqui...

  1. Phytoplankton niches, traits and eco-evolutionary responses to global environmental change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Litchman, Elena; Edwards, Kyle F.; Klausmeier, Christopher A.;

    2012-01-01

    and theoretical ways to predict different phytoplankton responses to global change. Using phytoplankton ecological niches to predict their responses to multiple environmental stressors is a promising new approach. Functional traits of phytoplankton, such as resource utilization traits and tolerance curves...... for various environmental factors like temperature, can be used to define niches along major axes. Characterization of pairwise and higher dimension trade-offs among traits should help predict possible niche changes along multiple dimensions simultaneously. The potential for evolutionary responses to global...... be investigated simultaneously. Novel models of trait evolution in a community context should provide additional insights into potential adaptation trajectories under diverse global change scenarios...

  2. Current and future niche of North and Central American sand flies (Diptera: psychodidae in climate change scenarios.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Moo-Llanes

    Full Text Available Ecological niche models are useful tools to infer potential spatial and temporal distributions in vector species and to measure epidemiological risk for infectious diseases such as the Leishmaniases. The ecological niche of 28 North and Central American sand fly species, including those with epidemiological relevance, can be used to analyze the vector's ecology and its association with transmission risk, and plan integrated regional vector surveillance and control programs. In this study, we model the environmental requirements of the principal North and Central American phlebotomine species and analyze three niche characteristics over future climate change scenarios: i potential change in niche breadth, ii direction and magnitude of niche centroid shifts, iii shifts in elevation range. Niche identity between confirmed or incriminated Leishmania vector sand flies in Mexico, and human cases were analyzed. Niche models were constructed using sand fly occurrence datapoints from Canada, USA, Mexico, Guatemala and Belize. Nine non-correlated bioclimatic and four topographic data layers were used as niche components using GARP in OpenModeller. Both B2 and A2 climate change scenarios were used with two general circulation models for each scenario (CSIRO and HadCM3, for 2020, 2050 and 2080. There was an increase in niche breadth to 2080 in both scenarios for all species with the exception of Lutzomyia vexator. The principal direction of niche centroid displacement was to the northwest (64%, while the elevation range decreased greatest for tropical, and least for broad-range species. Lutzomyia cruciata is the only epidemiologically important species with high niche identity with that of Leishmania spp. in Mexico. Continued landscape modification in future climate change will provide an increased opportunity for the geographic expansion of NCA sand flys' ENM and human exposure to vectors of Leishmaniases.

  3. California's Methane Budget derived from CalNex P-3 Aircraft Observations and the WRF-STILT Lagrangian Transport Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santoni, G. W.; Xiang, B.; Kort, E. A.; Daube, B.; Andrews, A. E.; Sweeney, C.; Wecht, K.; Peischl, J.; Ryerson, T. B.; Angevine, W. M.; Trainer, M.; Nehrkorn, T.; Eluszkiewicz, J.; Wofsy, S. C.

    2012-12-01

    We present constraints on California emission inventories of methane (CH4) using atmospheric observations from nine NOAA P-3 flights during the California Nexus (CalNex) campaign in May and June of 2010. Measurements were made using a quantum cascade laser spectrometer (QCLS) and a cavity ring-down spectrometer (CRDS) and calibrated to NOAA standards in-flight. Five flights sampled above the northern and southern central valley and an additional four flights probed the south coast air basin, quantifying emissions from the Los Angeles basin. The data show large (>100 ppb) CH4 enhancements associated with point and area sources such as cattle and manure management, landfills, wastewater treatment, gas production and distribution infrastructure, and rice agriculture. We compare aircraft observations to modeled CH4 distributions by accounting for a) transport using the Stochastic Time-Inverted Lagrangian Transport (STILT) model driven by Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) meteorology, b) emissions from inventories such as EDGAR and ones constructed from California-specific state and county databases, each gridded to 0.1° x 0.1° resolution, and c) spatially and temporally evolving boundary conditions such as GEOS-Chem and a NOAA aircraft profile measurement derived curtain imposed at the edge of the WRF domain. After accounting for errors associated with transport, planetary boundary layer height, lateral boundary conditions, seasonality of emissions, and the spatial resolution of surface emission prior estimates, we find that the California Air Resources Board (CARB) CH4 budget is a factor of 1.64 too low. Using a Bayesian inversion to the flight data, we estimate California's CH4 budget to be 2.5 TgCH4/yr, with emissions from cattle and manure management, landfills, rice, and natural gas infrastructure, representing roughly 82%, 26%, 9% and 32% (sum = 149% with other sources accounting for the additional 15%) of the current CARB CH4 budget estimate of 1.52 TgCH4

  4. West Coast fish, mammal, bird life history and abunance parameters - Developing end-to-end models of the California Current Large Marine Ecosystem

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The purpose of this project is to develop spatially discrete end-to-end models of the California Current LME, linking oceanography, biogeochemistry, food web...

  5. West Coast fish, mammal, and bird species diets - Developing end-to-end models of the California Current Large Marine Ecosystem

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The purpose of this project is to develop spatially discrete end-to-end models of the California Current LME, linking oceanography, biogeochemistry, food web...

  6. The United States pork niche market phenomenon.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Honeyman, M S; Pirog, R S; Huber, G H; Lammers, P J; Hermann, J R

    2006-08-01

    After the broad industrialization of the US pork industry, there has been a development of niche markets for export and domestic pork; that is, there is a pork niche market phenomenon. The US pork niche market phenomenon is characterized, and 2 of the major markets are explained in detail. With the Midwest's tradition of a diversified family-based agriculture and record low hog prices of the late 1990s, the conditions were conducive for this phenomenon to develop. Pork niche markets utilize various sales methods including Internet sales, local abattoir sales, direct marketing, farmer networks, and targeting to organized groups. In 2003, there were approximately 35 to 40 active pork niche marketing efforts in Iowa. The Berkshire breed is an example of a swine breed that has had a recent resurgence because of niche markets. Berkshire pork is known for tenderness and excellent quality. Berkshire registrations have increased 4-fold in the last 10 yr. One of the larger niche marketers of "natural pork" is Niman Ranch Pork, which has more than 400 farmer-producers and processes about 2,500 pigs weekly. Many US consumers of pork are interested in issues concerning the environment, food safety, pig welfare, and pig farm ownership and structure. These consumers may be willing to pay more for pork from farmers who are also concerned about these issues. Small- and medium-sized swine farmers are active in pork niche markets. Niche markets claim product differentiation by superior or unique product quality and social attributes. Quality attributes include certain swine breeds, and meat quality, freshness, taste or flavor, and tenderness. Social or credence attributes often are claimed and include freedom from antibiotics and growth promotants; local family farm production; natural, organic, outdoor, or bedded rearing; humane rearing; known origin; environmentally friendly production; and the absence of animal by-products in the feed. Niche pork markets and alternative swine

  7. Niche divergence builds the case for ecological speciation in skinks of the Plestiodon skiltonianus species complex

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wogan, Guinevere O.U.; Richmond, Jonathan Q.

    2015-01-01

    Adaptation to different thermal environments has the potential to cause evolutionary changes that are sufficient to drive ecological speciation. Here, we examine whether climate-based niche divergence in lizards of the Plestiodon skiltonianus species complex is consistent with the outcomes of such a process. Previous work on this group shows that a mechanical sexual barrier has evolved between species that differ mainly in body size and that the barrier may be a by-product of selection for increased body size in lineages that have invaded xeric environments; however, baseline information on niche divergence among members of the group is lacking. We quantified the climatic niche using mechanistic physiological and correlative niche models and then estimated niche differences among species using ordination techniques and tests of niche overlap and equivalency. Our results show that the thermal niches of size-divergent, reproductively isolated morphospecies are significantly differentiated and that precipitation may have been as important as temperature in causing increased shifts in body size in xeric habitats. While these findings alone do not demonstrate thermal adaptation or identify the cause of speciation, their integration with earlier genetic and behavioral studies provides a useful test of phenotype–environment associations that further support the case for ecological speciation in these lizards.

  8. Field Scale Groundwater Nitrate Loading Model for the Central Valley, California, 1945-Current

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harter, T.; Dzurella, K.; Bell, A.; Kourakos, G.

    2015-12-01

    Anthropogenic groundwater nitrate contamination in the Central Valley aquifer system, California, is widespread, with over 40% of domestic wells in some counties exceeding drinking water standards. Sources of groundwater nitrate include leaky municipal wastewater systems, municipal wastewater recharge, onsite wastewater treatment (septic) systems, atmospheric nitrogen deposition, animal farming, application of organic waste materials (sludge, biosolids, animal manure) to agricultural lands, and synthetic fertilizer. At the site or field scale, nitrogen inputs to the landscape are balanced by plant nitrogen uptake and harvest, atmospheric nitrogen losses, surface runoff of nitrogen, soil nitrogen storage changes, and leaching to groundwater. Irrigated agriculture is a dominant player in the Central Valley nitrogen cycle: The largest nitrogen fluxes are synthetic fertilizer and animal manure applications to cropland, crop nitrogen uptake, and groundwater nitrogen losses. We construct a historic field/parcel scale groundwater nitrogen loading model distinguishing urban and residential areas, individual animal farming areas, leaky wastewater lagoons, and approximately 50 different categories of agricultural crops. For non-agricultural landuses, groundwater nitrate loading is based on reported leaching values, animal population, and human population. For cropland, groundwater nitrate loading is computed from mass balance, taking into account diverse and historically changing management practices between different crops. Groundwater nitrate loading is estimated for 1945 to current. Significant increases in groundwater nitrate loading are associated with the expansion of synthetic fertilizer use in the 1950s to 1970s. Nitrate loading from synthetic fertilizer use has stagnated over the past 20 years due to improvements in nutrient use efficiency. However, an unbroken 60 year exponential increase in dairy production until the late 2000s has significantly impacted the

  9. Prostanoid induces premetastatic niche in regional lymph nodes

    OpenAIRE

    Ogawa, Fumihiro; AMANO, HIDEKI; Eshima, Koji; Ito, Yoshiya; Matsui, Yoshio; Hosono, Kanako; Kitasato, Hidero; Iyoda, Akira; Iwabuchi, Kazuya; Kumagai, Yuji; Satoh, Yukitoshi; Narumiya, Shuh; Majima, Masataka

    2014-01-01

    The lymphatic system is an important route for cancer dissemination, and lymph node metastasis (LNM) serves as a critical prognostic determinant in cancer patients. We investigated the contribution of COX-2–derived prostaglandin E2 (PGE2) in the formation of a premetastatic niche and LNM. A murine model of Lewis lung carcinoma (LLC) cell metastasis revealed that COX-2 is expressed in DCs from the early stage in the lymph node subcapsular regions, and COX-2 inhibition markedly suppressed media...

  10. Evaluation of Stream Loads Used to Calibrate a SPARROW Model for California, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Domagalski, J. L.; Saleh, D.

    2012-12-01

    A SPARROW (Spatially Referenced Regression on Watershed Attributes) Model is being developed for California. The model will be used to understand how Total Nitrogen (TN) and Total Phosphorus (TP) are transported from land to water from sources such as the atmosphere, fertilizer, soils, wastewater treatment facilities, etc., and relies on accurate calibration of mass loads obtained from water sampling at gauging stations in order to link mass at a location to upstream sources. Prior to input to the SPARROW model, the mass loads are calculated separately using a five-parameter log linear multi-regression model utilizing discharge, chemical measurements, time, and seasonal adjustments to obtain the best fit for the relationship of discharge and concentration. The gauging stations are situated in three ecological management zones as defined by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency: the Western Forested Mountains, the Central Valley, and the Xeric West. Load models for nitrogen have at times been shown to be positively biased when the form of TN is predominately nitrate. The regions under study have different sources of nitrogen, which will affect the form of TN transported. Some stream segments are natural settings (forested), while others are highly influenced by agriculture and urban (Central Valley) settings and others by arid climate (Xeric). These differences affect the form of TN transported (dissolved as nitrate or suspended in the form of organic nitrogen), and hence it is expected that the efficiency of the discharge-load model may not be uniform at all locations. Less than 10% of the TN is in the form of nitrate in streams of the western forested mountains, but about 30% is nitrate in the Central Valley and about 40% in the arid region. Model efficiency was evaluated using the Nash Sutcliffe (NS) equation, which examines the square of the residuals of modeled results and observed values after transforming the logarithm of loads back to the actual data

  11. 制造业产品创新过程的概念设计生态位分析模型构建与测评研究%On Building and Evaluating Analysis Model of Concept Design based on Ecological Niche Theory in Product Innovation Process of Manufacturing Industry

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    尹航; 雷家骕; 李晓宇

    2013-01-01

    Based on ecological niche theory, this article finds out sequential evaluating of product innovation process including five sub ecological niches, such as concept design, R&D management, the debugging, industrial manufacturing, and market transactions. It also describes the sequence in produce innovation process. Through analyzing influencing factors of innovation ecological niche of concept design in product innovation process, evaluating indexes are set up to measure evoluating status of innovation ecological niche of concept design. Furthermore, twenty-three innovation projects' information of innovation ecological niche of concept design are collected to carry out empirical research, evaluating status can be measured and theory model can be validated based on Entropy-Topsis method.%基于生态位的理念,本文将产品创新过程划分为概念设计、研发、调试、工业生产以及市场交易等五个子生态位,描绘了产品创新过程的演进序列;通过剖析影响概念设计生态位的多维因素,继而测度概念设计生态位的演进状态.此后,本文以23个处于概念设计生态位的制造业企业产品创新项目作为实证分析对象,应用Entropy-Topsis模型测评产品创新生态位的演进态势,对收集的样本调查数据进行分析并验证理论模型.

  12. CROSS DRIFT ALCOVE/NICHE UTILITIES ANALYSIS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    S. Goodin

    1999-07-08

    The purpose of this analysis is to provide the design basis and general arrangement requirements of the non-potable water, waste water, compressed air and ventilation (post excavation) utilities required in support of the Cross Drift alcoves and niches.

  13. CROSS DRIFT ALCOVE/NICHE UTILITIES ANALYSIS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The purpose of this analysis is to provide the design basis and general arrangement requirements of the non-potable water, waste water, compressed air and ventilation (post excavation) utilities required in support of the Cross Drift alcoves and niches

  14. Incorporating Anthropogenic Influences into Fire Probability Models: Effects of Human Activity and Climate Change on Fire Activity in California.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mann, Michael L; Batllori, Enric; Moritz, Max A; Waller, Eric K; Berck, Peter; Flint, Alan L; Flint, Lorraine E; Dolfi, Emmalee

    2016-01-01

    The costly interactions between humans and wildfires throughout California demonstrate the need to understand the relationships between them, especially in the face of a changing climate and expanding human communities. Although a number of statistical and process-based wildfire models exist for California, there is enormous uncertainty about the location and number of future fires, with previously published estimates of increases ranging from nine to fifty-three percent by the end of the century. Our goal is to assess the role of climate and anthropogenic influences on the state's fire regimes from 1975 to 2050. We develop an empirical model that integrates estimates of biophysical indicators relevant to plant communities and anthropogenic influences at each forecast time step. Historically, we find that anthropogenic influences account for up to fifty percent of explanatory power in the model. We also find that the total area burned is likely to increase, with burned area expected to increase by 2.2 and 5.0 percent by 2050 under climatic bookends (PCM and GFDL climate models, respectively). Our two climate models show considerable agreement, but due to potential shifts in rainfall patterns, substantial uncertainty remains for the semiarid inland deserts and coastal areas of the south. Given the strength of human-related variables in some regions, however, it is clear that comprehensive projections of future fire activity should include both anthropogenic and biophysical influences. Previous findings of substantially increased numbers of fires and burned area for California may be tied to omitted variable bias from the exclusion of human influences. The omission of anthropogenic variables in our model would overstate the importance of climatic ones by at least 24%. As such, the failure to include anthropogenic effects in many models likely overstates the response of wildfire to climatic change. PMID:27124597

  15. Incorporating Anthropogenic Influences into Fire Probability Models: Effects of Human Activity and Climate Change on Fire Activity in California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Batllori, Enric; Moritz, Max A.; Waller, Eric K.; Berck, Peter; Flint, Alan L.; Flint, Lorraine E.; Dolfi, Emmalee

    2016-01-01

    The costly interactions between humans and wildfires throughout California demonstrate the need to understand the relationships between them, especially in the face of a changing climate and expanding human communities. Although a number of statistical and process-based wildfire models exist for California, there is enormous uncertainty about the location and number of future fires, with previously published estimates of increases ranging from nine to fifty-three percent by the end of the century. Our goal is to assess the role of climate and anthropogenic influences on the state’s fire regimes from 1975 to 2050. We develop an empirical model that integrates estimates of biophysical indicators relevant to plant communities and anthropogenic influences at each forecast time step. Historically, we find that anthropogenic influences account for up to fifty percent of explanatory power in the model. We also find that the total area burned is likely to increase, with burned area expected to increase by 2.2 and 5.0 percent by 2050 under climatic bookends (PCM and GFDL climate models, respectively). Our two climate models show considerable agreement, but due to potential shifts in rainfall patterns, substantial uncertainty remains for the semiarid inland deserts and coastal areas of the south. Given the strength of human-related variables in some regions, however, it is clear that comprehensive projections of future fire activity should include both anthropogenic and biophysical influences. Previous findings of substantially increased numbers of fires and burned area for California may be tied to omitted variable bias from the exclusion of human influences. The omission of anthropogenic variables in our model would overstate the importance of climatic ones by at least 24%. As such, the failure to include anthropogenic effects in many models likely overstates the response of wildfire to climatic change. PMID:27124597

  16. Three-dimensional connectivity in the Gulf of California based on a numerical model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santiago-García, M. W.; Marinone, S. G.; Velasco-Fuentes, O. U.

    2014-04-01

    Quantifying connectivity is useful for understanding the exchange and trapping of some tracers, such as fish larvae and nutrients. In the Gulf of California, connectivity studies have been limited to certain periods and regions. The current study investigated the connectivity among 17 areas, defined by the presence of eddies and weak or strong flows as obtained from a three-dimensional non-linear baroclinic model. The particles were released into the water column and advected for 28 days using an advection-diffusion scheme. The results revealed a seasonal connectivity pattern. In the northern region, particle trapping was greater during the cyclonic circulation period (June to September) compared with the anticyclonic period (November to March). This high retention was due to both the presence of a cyclonic eddy in the central portion of the region and the intense northwestward flow off the coast of Sonora. Retentions were low for the large island region due to the intense exchange between the northern and southern regions. East of Ángel de La Guarda Island the transport occurred predominantly towards the northwest due to the nearly permanent deep flow in that direction and to a branching of the surface flow among the large islands during the anticyclonic period and the northwestward low during the cyclonic period. In the peninsular and central areas of the southern region, retentions were high due to weak flows and the presence of eddies, respectively. The greatest retention and low dispersion of particles in practically all of the provinces were recorded during the transition periods of the circulation.

  17. Toxic volatile organic compounds in environmental tobacco smoke: Emission factors for modeling exposures of California populations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Daisey, J.M.; Mahanama, K.R.R.; Hodgson, A.T. [Lawrence Berkeley Lab., CA (United States)

    1994-10-01

    The primary objective of this study was to measure emission factors for selected toxic air contaminants in environmental tobacco smoke (ETS) using a room-sized environmental chamber. The emissions of 23 volatile organic compounds (VOCs), including, 1,3-butadiene, three aldehydes and two vapor-phase N-nitrosamines were determined for six commercial brands of cigarettes and reference cigarette 1R4F. The commercial brands were selected to represent 62.5% of the cigarettes smoked in California. For each brand, three cigarettes were machine smoked in the chamber. The experiments were conducted over four hours to investigate the effects of aging. Emission factors of the target compounds were also determined for sidestream smoke (SS). For almost all target compounds, the ETS emission factors were significantly higher than the corresponding SS values probably due to less favorable combustion conditions and wall losses in the SS apparatus. Where valid comparisons could be made, the ETS emission factors were generally in good agreement with the literature. Therefore, the ETS emission factors, rather than the SS values, are recommended for use in models to estimate population exposures from this source. The variabilities in the emission factors ({mu}g/cigarette) of the selected toxic air contaminants among brands, expressed as coefficients of variation, were 16 to 29%. Therefore, emissions among brands were Generally similar. Differences among brands were related to the smoked lengths of the cigarettes and the masses of consumed tobacco. Mentholation and whether a cigarette was classified as light or regular did not significantly affect emissions. Aging was determined not to be a significant factor for the target compounds. There were, however, deposition losses of the less volatile compounds to chamber surfaces.

  18. Sustainability of Human Ecological Niche Construction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Forest Isbell

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Humans influence and depend on natural systems worldwide, creating complex societal-ecological feedbacks that make it difficult to assess the long-term sustainability of contemporary human activities. We use ecological niche theory to consider the short-term (transient and long-term (equilibrium effects of improvements in health, agriculture, or efficiency on the abundances of humans, our plant and animal resources, and our natural enemies. We also consider special cases of our model where humans shift to a completely vegetarian diet, or completely eradicate natural enemies. We find that although combinations of health, agriculture, and efficiency improvements tend to support more people and plant resources, they also result in more natural enemies and fewer animal resources. Considering each of these improvements separately reveals that they lead to different, and sometimes opposing, long-term effects. For example, health improvements can reduce pathogen abundances and make it difficult to sustain livestock production, whereas agricultural improvements tend to counterbalance these effects. Our exploratory analysis of a deliberately simple model elucidates trade-offs and feedbacks that could arise from the cascading effects of human activities.

  19. Mapping the zoonotic niche of Ebola virus disease in Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pigott, David M; Golding, Nick; Mylne, Adrian; Huang, Zhi; Henry, Andrew J; Weiss, Daniel J; Brady, Oliver J; Kraemer, Moritz U G; Smith, David L; Moyes, Catherine L; Bhatt, Samir; Gething, Peter W; Horby, Peter W; Bogoch, Isaac I; Brownstein, John S; Mekaru, Sumiko R; Tatem, Andrew J; Khan, Kamran; Hay, Simon I

    2014-01-01

    Ebola virus disease (EVD) is a complex zoonosis that is highly virulent in humans. The largest recorded outbreak of EVD is ongoing in West Africa, outside of its previously reported and predicted niche. We assembled location data on all recorded zoonotic transmission to humans and Ebola virus infection in bats and primates (1976-2014). Using species distribution models, these occurrence data were paired with environmental covariates to predict a zoonotic transmission niche covering 22 countries across Central and West Africa. Vegetation, elevation, temperature, evapotranspiration, and suspected reservoir bat distributions define this relationship. At-risk areas are inhabited by 22 million people; however, the rarity of human outbreaks emphasises the very low probability of transmission to humans. Increasing population sizes and international connectivity by air since the first detection of EVD in 1976 suggest that the dynamics of human-to-human secondary transmission in contemporary outbreaks will be very different to those of the past. PMID:25201877

  20. Niche as a determinant of word fate in online groups

    CERN Document Server

    Altmann, Eduardo G; Motter, Adilson E

    2010-01-01

    Patterns of word use both reflect and influence a myriad of human activities and interactions. Like other entities that reproduce and evolve, words rise or decline depending upon a complex interplay between fitness and environment. Using Internet discussion communities as model systems, we show that the word niche, defined as the extent of the word's association with specific people and topics, is a strong determinant of changes in word frequency. Previous, a posteriori, studies have indicated that word frequency is a correlate of word success at historical time scales. Our longitudinal analysis reveals that the word niche is far more important than word frequency in the dynamics of the entire vocabulary at shorter time scales, as the language adapts to new concepts and social groupings. We also identify endogenous versus exogenous value as a further component in the fate of words, and demonstrate the force of this distinction in the rise of novel words. Our results indicate that short-term nonstationarity in...

  1. Incremental by Design? On the Role of Incumbents in Technology Niches

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hain, Daniel S.; Jurowetzki, Roman

    will enable them to inherit central and dominant positions and thus shape the niche's further development by their will. Deploying a stochastic-actor-based model, we analyze if network dynamics of public funded R&DD in technological niches favor incumbent actors in a way that they are able to occupy central......In this paper, we study structural dynamics and path dependencies of research networks in technological niches at the case of public funded research projects. We particularly investigate which benefits large incumbent firms enjoy in the formation of such networks, and discuss possible implications...... for the rate and direction of technological progress as an outcome. Literature on sustainability transitions outlines the significance of niches and protected space for the development of path-breaking technologies in early stages. They are said to offer firms an environment to experiment in joint learning...

  2. How many studies are necessary to compare niche-based models for geographic distributions? Inductive reasoning may fail at the end Quantos estudos ainda serão necessários para avaliar modelos de distribuição geográfica baseados em modelagem do nicho? Um pensamento indutivo pode estar fadado ao fracasso

    OpenAIRE

    LC Terribile; JAF. Diniz-Filho; P. De Marco Jr.

    2010-01-01

    The use of ecological niche models (ENM) to generate potential geographic distributions of species has rapidly increased in ecology, conservation and evolutionary biology. Many methods are available and the most used are Maximum Entropy Method (MAXENT) and the Genetic Algorithm for Rule Set Production (GARP). Recent studies have shown that MAXENT perform better than GARP. Here we used the statistics methods of ROC - AUC (area under the Receiver Operating Characteristics curve) and bootstrap t...

  3. A cost-benefit model comparing the California Milk Cell Test and Milk Electrical Resistance Test

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Inge-Marie Petzer

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available The indirect effects of mastitis treatment are often overlooked in cost-benefit analyses, but it may be beneficial for the dairy industry to consider them. The cost of mastitis treatment may increase when the duration of intra-mammary infections are prolonged due to misdiagnosis of host-adapted mastitis. Laboratory diagnosis of mastitis can be costly and time consuming, therefore cow-side tests such as the California Milk Cell Test (CMCT and Milk Electrical Resistance (MER need to be utilised to their full potential. The aim of this study was to determine the relative benefit of using these two tests separately and in parallel. This was done using a partial-budget analysis and a cost-benefit model to estimate the benefits and costs of each respective test and the parallel combination thereof. Quarter milk samples (n= 1860 were taken from eight different dairy herds in South Africa. Milk samples were evaluated by means of the CMCT, hand-held MER meter and cyto-microbiological laboratory analysis. After determining the most appropriate cut-off points for the two cow-side tests, the sensitivity and specificity of the CMCT (Se= 1.00, Sp= 0.66, MER (Se= 0.92, Sp= 0.62 and the tests done in parallel (Se= 1.00, Sp= 0.87 were calculated. The input data that were used for partial-budget analysis and in the cost-benefit model were based on South African figures at the time of the study, and on literature. The total estimated financial benefit of correct diagnosis of host-adapted mastitis per cow for the CMCT, MER and the tests done in parallel was R898.73, R518.70 and R1064.67 respectively. This involved taking the expected benefit of a correct test result per cow, the expected cost of an error per cow and the cost of the test into account. The CMCT was shown to be 11%more beneficial than the MER test, whilst using the tests in parallel was shown to be the most beneficial method for evaluating the mastitis-control programme. Therefore

  4. Incorporating anthropogenic influences into fire probability models: Effects of development and climate change on fire activity in California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mann, M.; Moritz, M.; Batllori, E.; Waller, E.; Krawchuk, M.; Berck, P.

    2014-12-01

    The costly interactions between humans and natural fire regimes throughout California demonstrate the need to understand the uncertainties surrounding wildfire, especially in the face of a changing climate and expanding human communities. Although a number of statistical and process-based wildfire models exist for California, there is enormous uncertainty about the location and number of future fires. Models estimate an increase in fire occurrence between nine and fifty-three percent by the end of the century. Our goal is to assess the role of uncertainty in climate and anthropogenic influences on the state's fire regime from 2000-2050. We develop an empirical model that integrates novel information about the distribution and characteristics of future plant communities without assuming a particular distribution, and improve on previous efforts by integrating dynamic estimates of population density at each forecast time step. Historically, we find that anthropogenic influences account for up to fifty percent of the total fire count, and that further housing development will incite or suppress additional fires according to their intensity. We also find that the total area burned is likely to increase but at a slower than historical rate. Previous findings of substantially increased numbers of fires may be tied to the assumption of static fuel loadings, and the use of proxy variables not relevant to plant community distributions. We also find considerable agreement between GFDL and PCM model A2 runs, with decreasing fire counts expected only in areas of coastal influence below San Francisco and above Los Angeles. Due to potential shifts in rainfall patterns, substantial uncertainty remains for the semiarid deserts of the inland south. The broad shifts of wildfire between California's climatic regions forecast in this study point to dramatic shifts in the pressures plant and human communities will face by midcentury. The information provided by this study reduces the

  5. Niche-modulated and niche-modulating genes in bone marrow cells

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bone marrow (BM) cells depend on their niche for growth and survival. However, the genes modulated by niche stimuli have not been discriminated yet. For this purpose, we investigated BM aspirations from patients with various hematological malignancies. Each aspirate was fractionated, and the various samples were fixed at different time points and analyzed by microarray. Identification of niche-modulated genes relied on sustained change in expression following loss of niche regulation. Compared with the reference (‘authentic') samples, which were fixed immediately following aspiration, the BM samples fixed after longer stay out-of-niche acquired numerous changes in gene-expression profile (GEP). The overall genes modulated included a common subset of functionally diverse genes displaying prompt and sustained ‘switch' in expression irrespective of the tumor type. Interestingly, the ‘switch' in GEP was reversible and turned ‘off-and-on' again in culture conditions, resuming cell–cell–matrix contact versus respread into suspension, respectively. Moreover, the resuming of contact prolonged the survival of tumor cells out-of-niche, and the regression of the ‘contactless switch' was followed by induction of a new set of genes, this time mainly encoding extracellular proteins including angiogenic factors and extracellular matrix proteins. Our data set, being unique in authentic expression design, uncovered niche-modulated and niche-modulating genes capable of controlling homing, expansion and angiogenesis

  6. Why do niches develop in Caesarean uterine scars? Hypotheses on the aetiology of niche development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vervoort, A.J.M.W.; Uittenbogaard, L.B.; Hehenkamp, W.J.K.; Brölmann, H.A.M.; Mol, B.W.J.; Huirne, J.A.F.

    2015-01-01

    Caesarean section (CS) results in the occurrence of the phenomenon ‘niche’. A ‘niche’ describes the presence of a hypoechoic area within the myometrium of the lower uterine segment, reflecting a discontinuation of the myometrium at the site of a previous CS. Using gel or saline instillation sonohysterography, a niche is identified in the scar in more than half of the women who had had a CS, most with the uterus closed in one single layer, without closure of the peritoneum. An incompletely healed scar is a long-term complication of the CS and is associated with more gynaecological symptoms than is commonly acknowledged. Approximately 30% of women with a niche report spotting at 6–12 months after their CS. Other reported symptoms in women with a niche are dysmenorrhoea, chronic pelvic pain and dyspareunia. Given the association between a niche and gynaecological symptoms, obstetric complications and potentially with subfertility, it is important to elucidate the aetiology of niche development after CS in order to develop preventive strategies. Based on current published data and our observations during sonographic, hysteroscopic and laparoscopic evaluations of niches we postulate some hypotheses on niche development. Possible factors that could play a role in niche development include a very low incision through cervical tissue, inadequate suturing technique during closure of the uterine scar, surgical interventions that increase adhesion formation or patient-related factors that impair wound healing or increase inflammation or adhesion formation. PMID:26409016

  7. Which Factors Determine Spatial Segregation in the South American Opossums (Didelphis aurita and D. albiventris)? An Ecological Niche Modelling and Geometric Morphometrics Approach

    OpenAIRE

    Cáceres, Nilton Carlos; de Moraes Weber, Marcelo; Melo, Geruza Leal; Carlo MELORO; Sponchiado, Jonas; Carvalho, Renan dos Santos; Bubadué, Jamile de Moura

    2016-01-01

    Didelphis albiventris and D. aurita are Neotropical marsupials that share a unique evolutionary history and both are largely distributed throughout South America, being primarily allopatric throughout their ranges. In the Araucaria moist forest of Southern Brazil these species are sympatric and they might potentially compete having similar ecology. For this reason, they are ideal biological models to address questions about ecological character displacement and how closely related species mig...

  8. Finding missing interactions of the Arabidopsis thaliana root stem cell niche gene regulatory network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eugenio eAzpeitia

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available AbstractOver the last few decades, the Arabidopsis thaliana root stem cell niche has become a model system for the study of plant development and the stem cell niche. Currently, many of the molecular mechanisms involved in root stem cell niche maintenance and development have been described. A few years ago, we published a gene regulatory network model integrating this information. This model suggested that there were missing components or interactions. Upon updating the model, the observed stable gene configurations of the root stem cell niche could not be recovered, indicating that there are additional missing components or interactions in the model. In fact, due to the lack of experimental data, gene regulatory networks inferred from published data are usually incomplete. However, predicting the location and nature of the missing data is a not trivial task. Here, we propose a set of procedures for detecting and predicting missing interactions in Boolean networks. We used these procedures to predict putative missing interactions in the A. thaliana root stem cell niche network model. Using our approach, we identified three necessary interactions to recover the reported gene activation configurations that have been experimentally uncovered for the different cell types within the root stem cell niche: 1 a regulation of PHABULOSA to restrict its expression domain to the vascular cells, 2 a self-regulation of WOX5, possibly by an indirect mechanism through the auxin signalling pathway and 3 a positive regulation of JACKDAW by MAGPIE. The procedures proposed here greatly reduce the number of possible Boolean functions that are biologically meaningful and experimentally testable and that do not contradict previous data. We believe that these procedures can be used on any Boolean network. However, because the procedures were designed for the specific case of the root stem cell niche, formal demonstrations of the procedures should be shown in future

  9. Advection and starvation cause krill (Euphausia pacifica) decreases in 2005 Northern California coastal populations: Implications from a model study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dorman, Jeffrey G.; Powell, Thomas M.; Sydeman, William J.; Bograd, Steven J.

    2011-02-01

    A decrease in krill abundance during 2005 in regions of the California Current has been hypothesized to have had immediate (seabird) and long-term (salmon) negative impacts on upper trophic level predators. We use a suite of coupled models to examine the population biology and spatial and temporal distribution of the krill species Euphausia pacifica during the winter/spring of 2001, a “normal” year, and 2005, an “anomalous” year, to determine if this hypothesis is supported mechanistically. Ocean conditions were simulated using the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS), which forced an individual-based model parameterized to simulate the population biology of E. pacifica. Poleward transport during winter 2005 advected particles north of Cape Mendocino, away from seabirds and salmon feeding in the Gulf of the Farallons region. Few of the particles that were advected north in 2005 returned to their region of release throughout the model run time (200 days). Moreover, the “condition” of those particles remaining within the domain was poor in 2005, with greater mortality from starvation and a decreased mean particle weight. Our results indicate that both physical processes (anomalous northern advection) and biological processes (greater starvation and less weight per individual) contributed to reduced krill availability to predators in the northern California region during 2005, and that the productivity and survival of seabirds and salmonids is dependent on krill during critical life history stages.

  10. Implications of irradiating the subventricular zone stem cell niche

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vivian Capilla-Gonzalez

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Radiation therapy is a standard treatment for brain tumor patients. However, it comes with side effects, such as neurological deficits. While likely multi-factorial, the effect may in part be associated with the impact of radiation on the neurogenic niches. In the adult mammalian brain, the neurogenic niches are localized in the subventricular zone (SVZ of the lateral ventricles and the dentate gyrus of the hippocampus, where the neural stem cells (NSCs reside. Several reports showed that radiation produces a drastic decrease in the proliferative capacity of these regions, which is related to functional decline. In particular, radiation to the SVZ led to a reduced long-term olfactory memory and a reduced capacity to respond to brain damage in animal models, as well as compromised tumor outcomes in patients. By contrast, other studies in humans suggested that increased radiation dose to the SVZ may be associated with longer progression-free survival in patients with high-grade glioma. In this review, we summarize the cellular and functional effects of irradiating the SVZ niche. In particular, we review the pros and cons of using radiation during brain tumor treatment, discussing the complex relationship between radiation dose to the SVZ and both tumor control and toxicity.

  11. Modeling particle nucleation and growth over northern California during the 2010 CARES campaign

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lupascu, A.; Easter, R.; Zaveri, R.; Shrivastava, M.; Pekour, M.; Tomlinson, J.; Yang, Q.; Matsui, H.; Hodzic, A.; Zhang, Q.; Fast, J. D.

    2015-11-01

    Accurate representation of the aerosol lifecycle requires adequate modeling of the particle number concentration and size distribution in addition to their mass, which is often the focus of aerosol modeling studies. This paper compares particle number concentrations and size distributions as predicted by three empirical nucleation parameterizations in the Weather Research and Forecast coupled with chemistry (WRF-Chem) regional model using 20 discrete size bins ranging from 1 nm to 10 μm. Two of the parameterizations are based on H2SO4, while one is based on both H2SO4 and organic vapors. Budget diagnostic terms for transport, dry deposition, emissions, condensational growth, nucleation, and coagulation of aerosol particles have been added to the model and are used to analyze the differences in how the new particle formation parameterizations influence the evolving aerosol size distribution. The simulations are evaluated using measurements collected at surface sites and from a research aircraft during the Carbonaceous Aerosol and Radiative Effects Study (CARES) conducted in the vicinity of Sacramento, California. While all three parameterizations captured the temporal variation of the size distribution during observed nucleation events as well as the spatial variability in aerosol number, all overestimated by up to a factor of 2.5 the total particle number concentration for particle diameters greater than 10 nm. Using the budget diagnostic terms, we demonstrate that the combined H2SO4 and low-volatility organic vapor parameterization leads to a different diurnal variability of new particle formation and growth to larger sizes compared to the parameterizations based on only H2SO4. At the CARES urban ground site, peak nucleation rates are predicted to occur around 12:00 Pacific (local) standard time (PST) for the H2SO4 parameterizations, whereas the highest rates were predicted at 08:00 and 16:00 PST when low-volatility organic gases are included in the

  12. Modeling particle nucleation and growth over northern California during the 2010 CARES campaign

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Lupascu

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Accurate representation of the aerosol lifecycle requires adequate modeling of the particle number concentration and size distribution in addition to their mass, which is often the focus of aerosol modeling studies. This paper compares particle number concentrations and size distributions as predicted by three empirical nucleation parameterizations in the Weather Research and Forecast coupled with chemistry (WRF-Chem regional model using 20 discrete size bins ranging from 1 nm to 10 μm. Two of the parameterizations are based on H2SO4 while one is based on both H2SO4 and organic vapors. Budget diagnostic terms for transport, dry deposition, emissions, condensational growth, nucleation, and coagulation of aerosol particles have been added to the model and are used to analyze the differences in how the new particle formation parameterizations influence the evolving aerosol size distribution. The simulations are evaluated using measurements collected at surface sites and from a research aircraft during the Carbonaceous Aerosol and Radiative Effects Study (CARES conducted in the vicinity of Sacramento, California. While all three parameterizations captured the temporal variation of the size distribution during observed nucleation events as well as the spatial variability in aerosol number, all overestimated by up to a factor of 2.5 the total particle number concentration for particle diameters greater than 10 nm. Using the budget diagnostic terms, we demonstrate that the combined H2SO4 and low-volatility organic vapors parameterization leads to a different diurnal variability of new particle formation and growth to larger sizes compared to the parameterizations based on only H2SO4. At the CARES urban ground site, peak nucleation rates were predicted to occur around 12:00 Pacific (local standard time (PST for the H2SO4 parameterizations, whereas the highest rates were predicted at 08:00 and 16:00 PST when low-volatility organic gases are included in

  13. Remote Sensing-Based Detection and Spatial Pattern Analysis for Geo-Ecological Niche Modeling of Tillandsia SPP. In the Atacama, Chile

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolf, N.; Siegmund, A.; del Río, C.; Osses, P.; García, J. L.

    2016-06-01

    In the coastal Atacama Desert in Northern Chile plant growth is constrained to so-called `fog oases' dominated by monospecific stands of the genus Tillandsia. Adapted to the hyperarid environmental conditions, these plants specialize on the foliar uptake of fog as main water and nutrient source. It is this characteristic that leads to distinctive macro- and micro-scale distribution patterns, reflecting complex geo-ecological gradients, mainly affected by the spatiotemporal occurrence of coastal fog respectively the South Pacific Stratocumulus clouds reaching inlands. The current work employs remote sensing, machine learning and spatial pattern/GIS analysis techniques to acquire detailed information on the presence and state of Tillandsia spp. in the Tarapacá region as a base to better understand the bioclimatic and topographic constraints determining the distribution patterns of Tillandsia spp. Spatial and spectral predictors extracted from WorldView-3 satellite data are used to map present Tillandsia vegetation in the Tarapaca region. Regression models on Vegetation Cover Fraction (VCF) are generated combining satellite-based as well as topographic variables and using aggregated high spatial resolution information on vegetation cover derived from UAV flight campaigns as a reference. The results are a first step towards mapping and modelling the topographic as well as bioclimatic factors explaining the spatial distribution patterns of Tillandsia fog oases in the Atacama, Chile.

  14. REMOTE SENSING-BASED DETECTION AND SPATIAL PATTERN ANALYSIS FOR GEO-ECOLOGICAL NICHE MODELING OF TILLANDSIA SPP. IN THE ATACAMA, CHILE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Wolf

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available In the coastal Atacama Desert in Northern Chile plant growth is constrained to so-called ‘fog oases’ dominated by monospecific stands of the genus Tillandsia. Adapted to the hyperarid environmental conditions, these plants specialize on the foliar uptake of fog as main water and nutrient source. It is this characteristic that leads to distinctive macro- and micro-scale distribution patterns, reflecting complex geo-ecological gradients, mainly affected by the spatiotemporal occurrence of coastal fog respectively the South Pacific Stratocumulus clouds reaching inlands. The current work employs remote sensing, machine learning and spatial pattern/GIS analysis techniques to acquire detailed information on the presence and state of Tillandsia spp. in the Tarapacá region as a base to better understand the bioclimatic and topographic constraints determining the distribution patterns of Tillandsia spp. Spatial and spectral predictors extracted from WorldView-3 satellite data are used to map present Tillandsia vegetation in the Tarapaca region. Regression models on Vegetation Cover Fraction (VCF are generated combining satellite-based as well as topographic variables and using aggregated high spatial resolution information on vegetation cover derived from UAV flight campaigns as a reference. The results are a first step towards mapping and modelling the topographic as well as bioclimatic factors explaining the spatial distribution patterns of Tillandsia fog oases in the Atacama, Chile.

  15. Continental Refugium in the Mongolian Plateau during Quaternary Glacial Oscillations: Phylogeography and Niche Modelling of the Endemic Desert Hamster, Phodopus roborovskii.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lv, Xue; Xia, Lin; Ge, Deyan; Wen, Zhixin; Qu, Yanhua; Lu, Liang; Yang, Qisen

    2016-01-01

    The Mongolian Plateau (MP), which is situated in the interior of Asia and possesses a typical continental climate, experienced harsh climatic conditions during the Quaternary glacial fluctuations. Although these events likely had huge impacts on the local animal populations, the current effects have hardly been explored. To investigate whether the MP supported a refugium along an oceanic-continental gradient (ROCG), and whether this refugium was glacial or interglacial, we investigated the demographic and phylogeographic history of an endemic mammal species, the desert hamster Phodopus roborovskii. We reconstructed the demographic variation, the phylogeographic diffusion, and modelled the potential habitat during historical periods. The genetic diversity in the MP was the highest among all the localities, and the MP was a suitable habitat throughout the modelled historical periods. A phylogeographic diffusion analysis emphasized the importance of the MP as the centre of origin, preservation and spread for P. roborovskii. The homogeneous landscape provided the opportunity for a wide gene flow, which resulted in low resolution of the phylogenetic relationships. Moreover, P. roborovskii was favoured by the interglacial condition, with both its demographical and geographical ranges expanded within the interglacial periods. The range variation from the Last Glacial Maximum to the current condition reflects a distinct longitudinal shift, while both ranges largely contracted from that of the Last Interglacial. Our results support that the MP served as a refugium and spread centre for P. roborovskii during the Quaternary climate fluctuations. The interglacial expansion and the longitudinal shifts highlighted the important effects of precipitations on the distribution range of species adapted to arid and semi-arid during glacial oscillations. PMID:26839955

  16. Stable isotope evidence for trophic niche partitioning in a South African savanna rodent community

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Jacqueline CODRON; Kevin J DUFFY; Nico L AVENANT; Matt SPONHEIMER; Jennifer LEICHLITER; Oliver PAINE; Paul SANDBERG; Daryl CODRON

    2015-01-01

    Species’ partitioning of resources remains one of the most integral components for understanding community assem-bly. Analysis of stable carbon and nitrogen isotopes in animal tissues has the potential to help resolve patterns of partitioning be-cause these proxies represent the individual’s diet and trophic niche, respectively. Using free-ranging rodents in a southern Afri-can savanna as a model community, we find that syntopic species within habitats occupy distinct isotope niches. Moreover, spe-cies with strongly overlapping isotope niches did not overlap in their spatial distribution patterns, suggesting an underlying effect of competitive exclusion. Niche conservatism appears to characterize the behaviour of most species in our sample – with little or no observed changes across habitats – with the exception of one species,Mastomys coucha. This species displayed a generalist distribution, being found in similar abundances across a variety of habitats. This spatial pattern was coupled with a generalist isotope niche that shifted across habitats, likely in response to changes in species composition over the same spatial gradient. The case forM. coucha supports contentions that past competition effects played a significant evolutionary role in shaping community structures of today, including the absence of strong interspecific niche overlaps within particular habitats. Our study highlights the value of stable isotope approaches to help resolve key questions in community ecology, and moreover introduces novel ana-lytical approaches to quantifying isotope niche breadths and niche overlaps that are easily comparable with traditional metrices [Current Zoology 61 (3): 397–441, 2015].

  17. Cetaceans in the Southern California Bight : behavioral, acoustical and spatio-temporal modeling

    OpenAIRE

    Henderson, E Elizabeth

    2010-01-01

    This dissertation examines the behavior, occurrence patterns, and distribution of small cetaceans in the Southern California Bight (SCB) across a variety of temporal and spatial scales in order to elucidate how they interact with their environment. I begin by correlating the surface behavior and vocalizations of two exemplar species, the common dolphin (Delphinus sp.) and the Pacific white-sided dolphin (Lagenorhynchus obliquidens). Surface behaviors of both species were classified based on t...

  18. Development of State Interindustry Models for Rocky Mountain Region and California

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sathaye, Jayant A.; Kunin, Leonard

    1976-02-01

    Interindustry tables have been developed for the eight Rocky Mountain States and California. These tables are based on the 367-order 1967 national interindustry table. The national matrix was expanded to 404 sectors by disaggregating the seven minerals industries to 44 industries. The state tables can be used for energy and other resource analysis. Regional impacts of alternate development strategies can be evaluated with their use. A general computer program has been developed to facilitate construction of state interindustry tables.

  19. California System Architecture For Intelligent Transportation: Models For Transportation Systems Management

    OpenAIRE

    Hall, Randolph; Thakker, Viral

    1998-01-01

    In 1996, the Federal Highway Administration completed a program to develop a national system architecture (NSA) for intelligent-transportation-systems. This report presents recommendations on methodologies by which system architecture can be used to improve the deployment of transportation management projects, with emphasis on multi-jurisdictional projects. The report is part of a larger project addressing the deployment of an ITS system architecture in California. The project as a whole is l...

  20. Phylogeny and niche conservatism in North and Central American triatomine bugs (Hemiptera: Reduviidae: Triatominae, vectors of Chagas' disease.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos N Ibarra-Cerdeña

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available The niche conservatism hypothesis states that related species diverge in niche characteristics at lower rates than expected, given their lineage divergence. Here we analyze whether niche conservatism is a common pattern among vector species (Hemiptera: Reduviidae: Triatominae of Trypanosoma cruzi that inhabit North and Central America, a highly heterogeneous landmass in terms of environmental gradients. Mitochondrial and nuclear loci were used in a multi-locus phylogenetic framework to reconstruct phylogenetic relationships among species and estimate time of divergence of selected clades to draw biogeographic inferences. Then, we estimated similarity between the ecological niche of sister species and tested the niche conservatism hypothesis using our best estimate of phylogeny. Triatoma is not monophyletic. A primary clade with all North and Central American (NCA triatomine species from the genera Triatoma, Dipetalogaster, and Panstrongylus, was consistently recovered. Nearctic species within the NCA clade (T. p. protracta, T. r. rubida diverged during the Pliocene, whereas the Neotropical species (T. phyllosoma, T. longipennis, T. dimidiata complex are estimated to have diverged more recently, during the Pleistocene. The hypothesis of niche conservatism could not be rejected for any of six sister species pairs. Niche similarity between sister species best fits a retention model. While this framework is used here to infer niche evolution, it has a direct impact on spatial vector dynamics driven by human population movements, expansion of transportation networks and climate change scenarios.

  1. Niche conservatism of Eulophia alta, a trans-Atlantic orchid species

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marta Kolanowska

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available The genus Eulophia embraces over 230 species distributed through the tropical and subtropical Africa, Asia, Australia and the Americas. In Neotropics it is represented by a sole species – E. alta. The aim of the presented study was to evaluate the difference between ecological niches occupied by American and African populations of this species based on the ecological niche modeling. The similarity between the glacial and present niches occupied by E. alta was calculated and the factors limiting the species occurrence were identified. Areas of seasonal tropical forest, tropical savanna and woodland served as refugia for the studied species during last glacial maximum and they were more widespread in Neotropics than in Africa. No significant niche shift after last glacial maximum was observed. The distribution of E. alta in its whole range is restricted mainly by temperature seasonality. The differences in the niches occupied by African and Neotropical populations of E. alta suggest preglacial disjunction of the species range and independent adaptation of both groups. Despite the significant range disjunction of E. alta the species is characterized by relatively high degree of niche conservatism.

  2. Evolution is a cooperative process: the biodiversity-related niches differentiation theory (BNDT) can explain why.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gatti, Roberto Cazzolla

    2011-01-01

    A. McFayden and G.E. Hutchinson defined a niche as a multidimensional space or hypervolume within the environment that allows an individual or a species to survive, we consider niches as a fundamental ecological variable that regulate species' composition and relation in ecosystems. Successively the niche concept has been associated to the genetic term "phenotype" by MacArthurstressing the importance on what a species or a genome can show outside, either in the environmental functions or in body characteristics. Several indexes have been developed to evaluate the grade of overlapping and similarities of species' niches, even utilizing the theory of information. However, which are the factors that determine the number of species that can coexist in a determinate environment and why a generalist species do not compete until the exclusion of the remaining species to maximize its fitness, is still quite unknown. Moreover, there are few studies and theories that clearly explain why the number of niches is so variable through ecosystems and how can several species live in the same basal niche, intended in a comprehensive sense as the range of basic conditions (temperature, humidity, food-guild, etc.). Here I show that the number of niches in an ecosystem depends on the number of species present in a particular moment and that the species themselves allow the enhancement of niches in terms of space and number. I found that using a three-dimensional model as hypervolume and testing the theory on a Mediterranean, temperate and tropical forest ecosystem it is possible to demonstrate that each species plays a fundamental role in facilitating the colonization by other species by simply modifying the environment and exponentially increasing the available niches' space and number. I resumed these hypothesis, after some preliminary empiric tests, in the Biodiversity-related Niches Differentiation Theory (BNDT), stressing with these definition that the process of niches

  3. Classification and comparison of niche services for developing strategy of medical tourism in Asian countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Hung-chi; Kuo, Hsin-chih; Chung, Kuo-Piao; Chang, Sophia; Su, Syi; Yang, Ming-chin

    2010-01-01

    Medical tourism is a new trend in medical service. It is booming not only in Asian countries but also in European and South American countries. Worldwide competition of medical service is expected in the future, and niche service will be a "trademark" for the promotion of global medicine. Niche service also functions for market segmentation. Niche services are usually surgical procedures. A study was carried out to compare different strategies for developing medical tourism in Asian countries. The role of a niche service is evaluated in the initiation and further development of medical tourism for individual countries. From this study, a general classification was proposed in terms of treatment procedures. It can be used as a useful guideline for additional studies in medical tourism. Niche service plays the following roles in the development of medical tourism: (1) It attracts attention in the mass media and helps in subsequent promotion of business, (2) it exerts pressure on the hospital, which must improve the quality of health care provided in treating foreign patients, especially the niche services, and (3) it is a tool for setting up the business model. E-Da Hospital is an example for developing medical tourism in Taiwan. A side effect is that niche service brings additional foreign patients, which will contribute to the benefit of the hospital, but this leaves less room for treating domestic patients. A niche service is a means of introduction for entry into the market of medical tourism. How to create a successful story is important for the development of a niche service. When a good reputation has been established, the information provided on the Internet can last for a long time and can spread internationally to form a distinguished mark for further development. Niche services can be classified into 3 categories: (1) Low-risk procedures with large price differences and long stay after retirement; (2) high-risk procedures with less of a price difference

  4. Achieving California's 80% greenhouse gas reduction target in 2050: Technology, policy and scenario analysis using CA-TIMES energy economic systems model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The CA-TIMES optimization model of the California Energy System (v1.5) is used to understand how California can meet the 2050 targets for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (80% below 1990 levels). This model represents energy supply and demand sectors in California and simulates the technology and resource requirements needed to meet projected energy service demands. The model includes assumptions on policy constraints, as well as technology and resource costs and availability. Multiple scenarios are developed to analyze the changes and investments in low-carbon electricity generation, alternative fuels and advanced vehicles in transportation, resource utilization, and efficiency improvements across many sectors. Results show that major energy transformations are needed but that achieving the 80% reduction goal for California is possible at reasonable average carbon reduction cost ($9 to $124/tonne CO2e at 4% discount rate) relative to a baseline scenario. Availability of low-carbon resources such as nuclear power, carbon capture and sequestration (CCS), biofuels, wind and solar generation, and demand reduction all serve to lower the mitigation costs, but CCS is a key technology for achieving the lowest mitigation costs. - Highlights: • We model the California Energy System to 2050 under policy and technology scenarios. • The model optimizes technology and resource investments to meet emissions targets. • Deep emissions cuts (>74%) are achieved across all reduction scenarios. • Carbon capture enables negative emission biofuels and allows more petroleum use. • Greenhouse gas mitigation cost is small compared with total economic activity

  5. Fractal heterogeneity in minimal matrix models of scars modulates stiff-niche stem-cell responses via nuclear exit of a mechanorepressor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dingal, P. C. Dave P.; Bradshaw, Andrew M.; Cho, Sangkyun; Raab, Matthew; Buxboim, Amnon; Swift, Joe; Discher, Dennis E.

    2015-09-01

    Scarring is a long-lasting problem in higher animals, and reductionist approaches could aid in developing treatments. Here, we show that copolymerization of collagen I with polyacrylamide produces minimal matrix models of scars (MMMS), in which fractal-fibre bundles segregate heterogeneously to the hydrogel subsurface. Matrix stiffens locally--as in scars--while allowing separate control over adhesive-ligand density. The MMMS elicits scar-like phenotypes from mesenchymal stem cells (MSCs): cells spread and polarize quickly, increasing nucleoskeletal lamin-A yet expressing the `scar marker' smooth muscle actin (SMA) more slowly. Surprisingly, expression responses to MMMS exhibit less cell-to-cell noise than homogeneously stiff gels. Such differences from bulk-average responses arise because a strong SMA repressor, NKX2.5, slowly exits the nucleus on rigid matrices. NKX2.5 overexpression overrides rigid phenotypes, inhibiting SMA and cell spreading, whereas cytoplasm-localized NKX2.5 mutants degrade in well-spread cells. MSCs thus form a `mechanical memory' of rigidity by progressively suppressing NKX2.5, thereby elevating SMA in a scar-like state.

  6. California Red-Legged Frog Range - CWHR [ds587

    Data.gov (United States)

    California Department of Resources — Vector datasets of CWHR range maps are one component of California Wildlife Habitat Relationships (CWHR), a comprehensive information system and predictive model...

  7. Doctoral education in a successful ecological niche

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Mette Krogh; Lund, Ole

    2014-01-01

    Scholarly communities are dependent on and often measured by their ability to attract and develop doctoral students. Recent literature suggests that most scholarly communities entail ecological niches in which the doctoral students learn the codes and practices of research. In this article, we...... explore the microclimate in an ecological niche of doctoral education. Based on a theoretical definition of microclimate as the emotional atmosphere that ties group members together and affects their actions, we conducted a case study that aimed to describe the key features of the microclimate in a...... successful ecological niche of doctoral education, and the ways in which the microclimate support the doctoral students’ learning. The methods we applied in the case study were based on short-term ethnographic fieldwork. The results reveal four key features of the emotional atmosphere in the microclimate...

  8. Estimating Demand Response Load Impacts: Evaluation of BaselineLoad Models for Non-Residential Buildings in California

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Coughlin, Katie; Piette, Mary Ann; Goldman, Charles; Kiliccote,Sila

    2008-01-01

    Both Federal and California state policymakers areincreasingly interested in developing more standardized and consistentapproaches to estimate and verify the load impacts of demand responseprograms and dynamic pricing tariffs. This study describes a statisticalanalysis of the performance of different models used to calculate thebaseline electric load for commercial buildings participating in ademand-response (DR) program, with emphasis onthe importance of weathereffects. During a DR event, a variety of adjustments may be made tobuilding operation, with the goal of reducing the building peak electricload. In order to determine the actual peak load reduction, an estimateof what the load would have been on the day of the event without any DRactions is needed. This baseline load profile (BLP) is key to accuratelyassessing the load impacts from event-based DR programs and may alsoimpact payment settlements for certain types of DR programs. We testedseven baseline models on a sample of 33 buildings located in California.These models can be loosely categorized into two groups: (1) averagingmethods, which use some linear combination of hourly load values fromprevious days to predict the load on the event, and (2) explicit weathermodels, which use a formula based on local hourly temperature to predictthe load. The models were tested both with and without morningadjustments, which use data from the day of the event to adjust theestimated BLP up or down.Key findings from this study are: - The accuracyof the BLP model currently used by California utilities to estimate loadreductions in several DR programs (i.e., hourly usage in highest 3 out of10 previous days) could be improved substantially if a morning adjustmentfactor were applied for weather-sensitive commercial and institutionalbuildings. - Applying a morning adjustment factor significantly reducesthe bias and improves the accuracy of all BLP models examined in oursample of buildings. - For buildings with low load

  9. Population genetics and ecological niche of invasive Aedes albopictus in Mexico.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pech-May, Angélica; Moo-Llanes, David A; Puerto-Avila, María Belem; Casas, Mauricio; Danis-Lozano, Rogelio; Ponce, Gustavo; Tun-Ku, Ezequiel; Pinto-Castillo, José Francisco; Villegas, Alejandro; Ibáñez-Piñon, Clemente R; González, Cassandra; Ramsey, Janine M

    2016-05-01

    The Asian tiger mosquito Aedes albopictus (Skuse), is one of the most invasive mosquito species worldwide. In Mexico it is now recorded in 12 states and represents a serious public health problem, given the recent introduction of Chikungunya on the southern border. The aim of this study was to analyze the population genetics of A. albopictus from all major recorded foci, and model its ecological niche. Niche similarity with that from its autochthonous distribution in Asia and other invaded countries were analyzed and its potential future expansion and potential human exposure in climate change scenarios measured. We analyzed 125 sequences of a 317bp fragment of the cyt b gene from seven A. albopictus populations across Mexico. The samples belong to 25 haplotypes with moderate population structuring (Fst=0.081, p<0.02) and population expansion. The most prevalent haplotype, found in all principal sites, was shared with the USA, Brazil, France, Madagascar, and Reunion Island. The ecological niche model using Mexican occurrence records covers 79.7% of the country, and has an 83% overlap with the Asian niche projected to Mexico. Both Neotropical and Nearctic regions are included in the Mexican niche model. Currently in Mexico, 38.6 million inhabitants are exposed to A. albopictus, which is expected to increase to 45.6 million by 2070. Genetic evidence supports collection information that A. albopictus was introduced to Mexico principally by land from the USA and Central and South America. Prevalent haplotypes from Mexico are shared with most invasive regions across the world, just as there was high niche similarity with both natural and invaded regions. The important overlap with the Asian niche model suggests a high potential for the species to disperse to sylvatic regions in Mexico. PMID:26814619

  10. Tropical forests are non-equilibrium ecosystems governed by interspecific competition based on universal 1/6 niche width.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hugo Fort

    Full Text Available Tropical forests are mega-diverse ecosystems that display complex and non-equilibrium dynamics. However, theoretical approaches have largely focused on explaining steady-state behaviour and fitting snapshots of data. Here we show that local and niche interspecific competition can realistically and parsimoniously explain the observed non-equilibrium regime of permanent plots of nine tropical forests, in eight different countries. Our spatially-explicit model, besides predicting with accuracy the main biodiversity metrics for these plots, can also reproduce their dynamics. A central finding is that tropical tree species have a universal niche width of approximately 1/6 of the niche axis that echoes the observed widespread convergence in their functional traits enabling them to exploit similar resources and to coexist despite of having large niche overlap. This niche width yields an average ratio of 0.25 between interspecific and intraspecific competition that corresponds to an intermediate value between the extreme claims of the neutral model and the classical niche-based model of community assembly (where interspecific competition is dominant. In addition, our model can explain and yield observed spatial patterns that classical niche-based and neutral theories cannot.

  11. A practioner's view on Strategic Niche Management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Strategic Niche Management (SNM) is a tool to support the societal introduction of radical sustainable innovations. However, it has been mainly used in retrospective to analyse historical case studies. This report discusses SNM from a practioner's perspective with the main aim to articulate questions that should be addressed for translating SNM from an ex-post to an ex-ante tool. The main conclusion is that an SNM tool should focus on the level of 'niches' rather than single projects, i.e. SNM should aim to support (program) managers who aim at orchestrating the interaction between multiple experiments

  12. 制造业企业产品创新过程的研发生态位分析模型构建与测评研究%Analysis Model and Empirical Research on Product Innovation Process of Manufacturing Indusrty Enterprises Based on Ecological Niche Theory

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    尹航; 李柏洲; 郭韬; 雷家骕

    2013-01-01

    Based on ecological niche theory, this article found out sequential evoluating of product innovation process including concept design, R&D management, the debugging, industrial manufacturing and market ecological niche. Through analyzing influencing factors of R&D innovation ecological niche of product innovation process, evaluating indexes were set up to measure evoluating status of R&D innovation ecological niche. Furthermore, twenty-one innovation projects information were collected to carry out empirical research , evoluating status could be measured and theory model could be validated based on Entropy-Topsis method.%本文基于生态位的理念,将产品创新过程划分为概念设计生态位、研发生态位、调试生态位、工业生产生态位以及市场交易生态位,以此形成产品创新过程中的演进序列;通过分析产品创新过程中研发生态位的影响因素,继而测度研发生态位的演进状态.然后以21个处于研发生态位的制造业企业产品创新项目作为实证分析对象,应用Entropy-Topsis模型测评产品创新生态位的演进态势,对收集的样本调查数据进行分析并验证理论模型.

  13. California Air Basins

    Data.gov (United States)

    California Department of Resources — Air ResourcesCalifornia Air Resources BoardThe following datasets are from the California Air Resources Board: * arb_california_airbasins - California Air BasinsThe...

  14. Ecology and the ratchet of events: Climate variability, niche dimensions, and species distributions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jackson, S.T.; Betancourt, J.L.; Booth, R.K.; Gray, S.T.

    2009-01-01

    Climate change in the coming centuries will be characterized by interannual, decadal, and multidecadal fluctuations superimposed on anthropogenic trends. Predicting ecological and biogeographic responses to these changes constitutes an immense challenge for ecologists. Perspectives from climatic and ecological history indicate that responses will be laden with contingencies, resulting from episodic climatic events interacting with demographic and colonization events. This effect is compounded by the dependency of environmental sensitivity upon life-stage for many species. Climate variables often used in empirical niche models may become decoupled from the proximal variables that directly influence individuals and populations. Greater predictive capacity, and morefundamental ecological and biogeographic understanding, will come from integration of correlational niche modeling with mechanistic niche modeling, dynamic ecological modeling, targeted experiments, and systematic observations of past and present patterns and dynamics.

  15. Ecological niche shifts and environmental space anisotropy: a cautionary note Desplazamientos en el nicho y la anisotropía del espacio ambiental: una nota precautoria

    OpenAIRE

    Jorge Soberón; A. Townsend Peterson

    2011-01-01

    The anisotropic structure of climatic space may cause significant (and to a large extent unappreciated) non-evolutionary niche shifts. This can be seen mostly in the context of spatial transferability of ecological niche models. We explore this effect using a virtual species in the United States. We created a simple virtual species by postulating its fundamental niche as an ellipse in a two-dimensional realistic climatic space. The climatic combinations defined by the ellipse were projected i...

  16. Bone Marrow Vascular Niche: Home for Hematopoietic Stem Cells

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ningning He

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Though discovered later than osteoblastic niche, vascular niche has been regarded as an alternative indispensable niche operating regulation on hematopoietic stem cells (HSCs. As significant progresses gained on this type niche, it is gradually clear that the main work of vascular niche is undertaking to support hematopoiesis. However, compared to what have been defined in the mechanisms through which the osteoblastic niche regulates hematopoiesis, we know less in vascular niche. In this review, based on research data hitherto we will focus on component foundation and various functions of vascular niche that guarantee the normal hematopoiesis process within bone marrow microenvironments. And the possible pathways raised by various research results through which this environment undergoes its function will be discussed as well.

  17. Are Geodetically and Geologically Constrained Vertical Deformation Models Compatible With the 100-Year Coastal Tide Gauge Record in California?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith-Konter, B. R.; Sandwell, D. T.

    2006-12-01

    Sea level change has been continuously recorded along the California coastline at several tide gauge stations for the past 50-100 years. These stations provide a temporal record of sea level change, generally attributed to post-glacial rebound and ocean climate phenomena. However, geological processes, including displacements from large earthquakes, have also been shown to produce sea level variations. Furthermore, the vertical tectonic response to interseismic strain accumulation in regions of major fault bends has been shown to produce uplift and subsidence rates consistent with sea level trends. To investigate the long-term extent and implication of tectonic deformation on sea level change, we compare time series data from California tide gauge stations to model estimates of vertical displacements produced by earthquake cycle deformation. Using a 3-D semi-analytic viscoelastic model, we combine geologic slip rates, geodetic velocities, and historical seismic data to simulate both horizontal and vertical deformation of the San Andreas Fault System. Using this model, we generate a time-series of vertical displacements spanning the 100-year sea level record and compare this to tide gauge data provided by the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL). Comparison between sea level data and a variety of geologically and geodetically constrained models confirms that the two are highly compatible. Vertical displacements are largely controlled by interseismic strain accumulation, however displacements from major earthquakes are also required to explain varying trends in the sea level data. Models based on elastic plate thicknesses of 30-50km and viscosities of 7x10^1^8-2x10^1^9 Pa-s produce vertical displacements at tide-gauge locations that explain long-term trends in the sea level record to a high degree of accuracy at nearly all stations. However, unmodeled phenomena are also present in the sea level data and require further inspection.

  18. An emerging niche market opportunity. Part I.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pulaski, M J

    1997-01-01

    Society is split between a desire for access to quality health care and a reluctance, by some, to pay for it. Looking at this cost/access dichotomy historically enables one to recognize an emerging niche market--discriminating, affluent consumers willing to pay for better health care. PMID:10169123

  19. Development of a laboratory niche Web site.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dimenstein, Izak B; Dimenstein, Simon I

    2013-10-01

    This technical note presents the development of a methodological laboratory niche Web site. The "Grossing Technology in Surgical Pathology" (www.grossing-technology.com) Web site is used as an example. Although common steps in creation of most Web sites are followed, there are particular requirements for structuring the template's menu on methodological laboratory Web sites. The "nested doll principle," in which one object is placed inside another, most adequately describes the methodological approach to laboratory Web site design. Fragmentation in presenting the Web site's material highlights the discrete parts of the laboratory procedure. An optimally minimal triad of components can be recommended for the creation of a laboratory niche Web site: a main set of media, a blog, and an ancillary component (host, contact, and links). The inclusion of a blog makes the Web site a dynamic forum for professional communication. By forming links and portals, cloud computing opens opportunities for connecting a niche Web site with other Web sites and professional organizations. As an additional source of information exchange, methodological laboratory niche Web sites are destined to parallel both traditional and new forms, such as books, journals, seminars, webinars, and internal educational materials. PMID:23769601

  20. ECRB ALCOVE AND NICHE GROUND SUPPORT ANALYSIS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The purpose of the analysis is to provide design bases for Enhanced Characterization of the Repository Block (ECRB) alcove and niche ground support drawings. The objective is to evaluate the ESF Alcove Ground Support Analysis (Ref 5.1) to determine if the calculations technically bound the ECRB alcoves and to address specific differences in the conditions and constraints

  1. California's Future Carbon Flux

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, L.; Pyles, R. D.; Paw U, K.; Gertz, M.

    2008-12-01

    The diversity of the climate and vegetation systems in the state of California provides a unique opportunity to study carton dioxide exchange between the terrestrial biosphere and the atmosphere. In order to accurately calculate the carbon flux, this study couples the sophisticated analytical surface layer model ACASA (Advance Canopy-Atmosphere-Soil Algorithm, developed in the University of California, Davis) with the newest version of mesoscale model WRF (the Weather Research & Forecasting Model, developed by NCAR and several other agencies). As a multilayer, steady state model, ACASA incorporates higher-order representations of vertical temperature variations, CO2 concentration, radiation, wind speed, turbulent statistics, and plant physiology. The WRF-ACASA coupling is designed to identify how multiple environmental factors, in particularly climate variability, population density, and vegetation distribution, impact on future carbon cycle prediction across a wide geographical range such as in California.

  2. A simulation-optimization model for water-resources management, Santa Barbara, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nishikawa, Tracy

    1998-01-01

    In times of drought, the local water supplies of the city of Santa Barbara, California, are insufficient to satisfy water demand. In response, the city has built a seawater desalination plant and gained access to imported water in 1997. Of primary concern to the city is delivering water from the various sources at a minimum cost while satisfying water demand and controlling seawater intrusion that might result from the overpumping of ground water. A simulation-optimization model has been developed for the optimal management of Santa Barbara?s water resources. The objective is to minimize the cost of water supply while satisfying various physical and institutional constraints such as meeting water demand, maintaining minimum hydraulic heads at selected sites, and not exceeding water-delivery or pumping capacities. The model is formulated as a linear programming problem with monthly management periods and a total planning horizon of 5 years. The decision variables are water deliveries from surface water (Gibraltar Reservoir, Cachuma Reservoir, Cachuma Reservoir cumulative annual carryover, Mission Tunnel, State Water Project, and desalinated seawater) and ground water (13 production wells). The state variables are hydraulic heads. Basic assumptions for all simulations are that (1) the cost of water varies with source but is fixed over time, and (2) only existing or planned city wells are considered; that is, the construction of new wells is not allowed. The drought of 1947?51 is Santa Barbara?s worst drought on record, and simulated surface-water supplies for this period were used as a basis for testing optimal management of current water resources under drought conditions. Assumptions that were made for this base case include a head constraint equal to sea level at the coastal nodes; Cachuma Reservoir carryover of 3,000 acre-feet per year, with a maximum carryover of 8,277 acre-feet; a maximum annual demand of 15,000 acre-feet; and average monthly capacities for the

  3. Ecological niche models and patterns of richness and endemism of the southern Andean genus Eurymetopum (Coleoptera, Cleridae Modelos de nicho ecológico y patrones de riqueza y endemismo del género andino austral Eurymetopum (Coleoptera, Cleridae

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tania Escalante

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Eurymetopum is an Andean clerid genus with 22 species. We modeled the ecological niches of 19 species with Maxent and used them as potential distributional maps to identify patterns of richness and endemicity. All modeled species maps were overlapped in a single map in order to determine richness. We performed an optimality analysis with NDM/VNDM in a grid of 1º latitude-longitude in order to identify endemism. We found a highly rich area, located between 32º and 41º south latitude, where the richest pixels have 16 species. One area of endemism was identified, located in the Maule and Valdivian Forest biogeographic provinces, which extends also to the Santiago province of the Central Chilean subregion, and contains four endemic species (E. parallelum, E. prasinum, E. proteus, and E. viride, as well as 16 non-endemic species. The sympatry of these phylogenetically unrelated species might indicate ancient vicariance processes, followed by episodes of dispersal. Based on our results, we suggest a close relationship between these provinces, with the Maule representing a complex area.Eurymetopum es un género de cléridos andinos con 22 especies. Modelamos los nichos ecológicos de 19 especies con Maxent y los utilizamos como mapas de distribución potencial para identificar patrones de riqueza y endemismo. Todos los mapas de las especies se superpusieron en un mapa único para determinar la riqueza. Realizamos un análisis de optimalidad con NDM/VNDM en una cuadrícula de 1º de latitud-longitud para identificar el endemismo. Hallamos un área de mayor riqueza, localizada entre los 32º y 41º de latitud sur, donde los pixeles más ricos poseen 16 especies. Se identificó un área de endemismo en las provincias biogeográficas del Maule y el Bosque Valdiviano, la cual se extiende también a la provincia de Santiago de la subregión Chilena Central, y que contiene cuatro especies endémicas (E. parallelum, E. prasinum, E. proteus y E. viride, as

  4. Adult Neurogenesis: Ultrastructure of a Neurogenic Niche and Neurovascular Relationships

    OpenAIRE

    Paula Grazielle Chaves da Silva; Jeanne L Benton; Beltz, Barbara S.; Silvana Allodi

    2012-01-01

    The first-generation precursors producing adult-born neurons in the crayfish (Procambarus clarkii) brain reside in a specialized niche located on the ventral surface of the brain. In the present work, we have explored the organization and ultrastructure of this neurogenic niche, using light-level, confocal and electron microscopic approaches. Our goals were to define characteristics of the niche microenvironment, examine the morphological relationships between the niche and the vasculature an...

  5. St. Mary's Collegiate Church, Youghal, north choir wall, tomb niche, base of niche

    OpenAIRE

    O'Donovan, Danielle

    2005-01-01

    Base of tomb niche opening, moulding from top down comprises: roll, roll, bell, roll, roll, bell, curved plinth. Very unusual Perpendicular style base, other examples can be found at Strade, Sligo Dominican, Balintubber.

  6. RESEARCH ON SUITABILITY EVALUATION OF GARDEN LAND IN YILING DISTRICT BASED ON GIS AND NICHE-FITNESS MODEL%基于GIS和生态位适宜度模型的园地适宜性评价——以湖北宜昌市夷陵区为例

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    聂艳; 喻婧; 崔灿

    2012-01-01

    生态位适宜度是对经典生态位理论和方法的深化与发展,在合理优化和发挥作物、环境最大共生效应,及农业结构调整和布局中具有重要的理论和实际意义。以宜昌市夷陵区园地为研究对象,将生态位适宜度模型引入到适宜性评价研究中,构建了5个因素12个因子的指标体系并提出了语言型、阈值型和空间型指标的量化方法,采用加权求和与限制因子模型对各评价单元柑橘的生态位适宜度值及限制因子进行了定量分析。结果表明:研究区生态位适宜度值整体较高,最大值达0.893,生境条件基本能满足柑橘的生长发育需求;园地适宜性评价结果以2级为主,所占面积达41.34%,1级地也达到21.58%;限制该地区园地生产潜力的生态因子主要为:土壤质地、冷月平均气温和道路通达度。同时,丰富了土宜评价的理论和方法体系,能直接指导农业生产实践、促进园地的合理开发利用与管理。%The Niche-fitness theory is a further development of the classical niche theory and an extension of the related methods. The niche-fitness model developed on the basis of niche can reflect the fitness degree of crops to environmental conditions relatively well. It can also be utilized to analyze factors restricting the growth of crops. However,there is little work on suitability evaluation especially multi-suitability evalua- tion on tillage by applying the niche-fitness theory. Under the guidance of the theory of sustainable devel- opment for Chinese agriculture, this paper aimed to use niche-fitness model to assess suitability degree and limiting factors of garden land in Yiling District of Hubei Province in China. Firstly, the index system of suitability evaluation was established including 5 sub-goals and 12 indices. Then,in order to normalize the measured value, indicators were categorized into numerical type, linguistic type and spatial diffusion type according to

  7. Functional traits, convergent evolution, and periodic tables of niches.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winemiller, Kirk O; Fitzgerald, Daniel B; Bower, Luke M; Pianka, Eric R

    2015-08-01

    Ecology is often said to lack general theories sufficiently predictive for applications. Here, we examine the concept of a periodic table of niches and feasibility of niche classification schemes from functional trait and performance data. Niche differences and their influence on ecological patterns and processes could be revealed effectively by first performing data reduction/ordination analyses separately on matrices of trait and performance data compiled according to logical associations with five basic niche 'dimensions', or aspects: habitat, life history, trophic, defence and metabolic. Resultant patterns then are integrated to produce interpretable niche gradients, ordinations and classifications. Degree of scheme periodicity would depend on degrees of niche conservatism and convergence causing species clustering across multiple niche dimensions. We analysed a sample data set containing trait and performance data to contrast two approaches for producing niche schemes: species ordination within niche gradient space, and niche categorisation according to trait-value thresholds. Creation of niche schemes useful for advancing ecological knowledge and its applications will depend on research that produces functional trait and performance datasets directly related to niche dimensions along with criteria for data standardisation and quality. As larger databases are compiled, opportunities will emerge to explore new methods for data reduction, ordination and classification. PMID:26096695

  8. Impacts of Future Climate Change on California Perennial Crop Yields: Model Projections with Climate and Crop Uncertainties

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lobell, D; Field, C; Cahill, K; Bonfils, C

    2006-01-10

    Most research on the agricultural impacts of climate change has focused on the major annual crops, yet perennial cropping systems are less adaptable and thus potentially more susceptible to damage. Improved assessments of yield responses to future climate are needed to prioritize adaptation strategies in the many regions where perennial crops are economically and culturally important. These impact assessments, in turn, must rely on climate and crop models that contain often poorly defined uncertainties. We evaluated the impact of climate change on six major perennial crops in California: wine grapes, almonds, table grapes, oranges, walnuts, and avocados. Outputs from multiple climate models were used to evaluate climate uncertainty, while multiple statistical crop models, derived by resampling historical databases, were used to address crop response uncertainties. We find that, despite these uncertainties, climate change in California is very likely to put downward pressure on yields of almonds, walnuts, avocados, and table grapes by 2050. Without CO{sub 2} fertilization or adaptation measures, projected losses range from 0 to >40% depending on the crop and the trajectory of climate change. Climate change uncertainty generally had a larger impact on projections than crop model uncertainty, although the latter was substantial for several crops. Opportunities for expansion into cooler regions are identified, but this adaptation would require substantial investments and may be limited by non-climatic constraints. Given the long time scales for growth and production of orchards and vineyards ({approx}30 years), climate change should be an important factor in selecting perennial varieties and deciding whether and where perennials should be planted.

  9. The fundamental thermal niche of adult landlocked striped bass

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bettoli, P.W.

    2005-01-01

    Researchers have described the temperatures selected by landlocked striped bass Morone saxatilis in different locales throughout the USA. However, seasonally low concentrations of dissolved oxygen (DO) in many systems prevented striped bass from using the cool waters (niche of adult landlocked striped bass may be lower than literature estimates. These results also represent the first unbiased field estimates of the influence of season on the thermal ecology of adult striped bass. The thermal characteristics of habitats considered optimal in habitat suitability index models for adult landlocked striped bass (i.e., 18-24??C) should be revised to include cooler waters. ?? Copyright by the American Fisheries Society 2005.

  10. Helicobacter urease: Niche construction at the single molecule level

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Shahid Khan; Asim Karim; Shaheryar Iqbal

    2009-10-01

    The urease of the human pathogen, Helicobacter pylori, is essential for pathogenesis. The ammonia produced by the enzyme neutralizes stomach acid; thereby modifying its environment. The dodecameric enzyme complex has high affinity for its substrate, urea. We compared urease sequences and derivative 3D homology model structures from all published Helicobacter genomes and an equal number of genomes belonging to strains of another enteric bacterium, Escherichia coli. We found that the enzyme’s architecture adapts to fit its niche. This finding, coupled to a survey of other physiological features responsible for the bacterium’s acid resistance, suggests how it copes with pH changes caused by disease onset and progression.

  11. Novel Concordance Between Geographic, Environmental, and Genetic Structure in the Ecological Generalist Prickly Sculpin (Cottus asper) in California.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baumsteiger, Jason; Kinziger, Andrew P; Aguilar, Andres

    2016-11-01

    Ecological generalists may contain a wealth of information concerning diversity, ecology, and geographic connectivity throughout their range. We explored these ideas in prickly sculpin (Cottus asper), a small generalist freshwater fish species where coastal forms have potentially undergone radiations into inland lacustrine and riverine environments. Using a 962bp cytochrome b mtDNA marker and 11 microsatellites, we estimated diversity, divergence times, gene flow, and structure among populations at 43 locations throughout California. We then incorporated genetic and GIS data into ecological niche models to assess ecological conditions within identified groups. Though not reciprocally monophyletic, unique mtDNA haplotypes, microsatellite clustering, and measures of isolation by distance (Coastal: r = 0.960, P history suggest geographic barriers are absent between groups since divergence, but ecological niche modeling revealed significant environmental differences (t = 10.84, P < 0.001). Introgressed individuals were also discovered between groups in an ecologically and geographically intermediate region. Population structure was limited, predominately found in tributaries of the San Joaquin basin in the Inland group. Overall, C. asper exhibited substantial genetic diversity, despite its ecological generality, reflecting California's historically unique and complex hydrology. More broadly, this study illustrates variable environments within the range of a generalist species may mask genetic divergences and should not be overlooked in biodiversity assessments. PMID:27489253

  12. Study of the Logistics Enterprise Development Path based on Niche Theory

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Sun Wenxia

    2013-01-01

    This paper refers evolutionary ecology of niche theory,analyzes logistics enterprises niche,as well as niche overlapping,niche separation,niche compression,niche expansionetc.And on this basis,this paper proposes,the development path of the logistics enterprise “co-operation,with in the horizontal,external vertical cooperation”,hoping advancing further of logisticsenterprises.

  13. A 3D Seismic Velocity Model Offshore Southern California from Ambient Noise Tomography of the ALBACORE OBS Array

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kohler, M. D.; Bowden, D. C.; Tsai, V. C.; Weeraratne, D. S.

    2015-12-01

    The Pacific-North America plate boundary in Southern California extends far west of the coastline, and a 12-month ocean bottom seismometer (OBS) array spanned the western side of the plate boundary to image lithospheric seismic velocities. Velocities are modeled through stacked cross correlations of ambient noise data. Twelve months of continuous data were used from 22 OBS stations and ~30 coastal and island Southern California Seismic Network stations. Particular attention has been paid to improving signal-to-noise ratios in the noise correlations with OBS stations by removing the effects of instrument tilt and infragravity waves. Different applications of preprocessing techniques allow us to distinguish the fundamental and first higher order Rayleigh modes, especially in deep water OBS pairs where the water layer dominates crustal sensitivity of the fundamental mode. Standard time domain and frequency domain methods are used to examine surface wave dispersion curves for group and phase velocities between 5 and 50 second periods, and these are inverted for 3D velocity structure. The results define the transition in three dimensions from continental lithospheric structure in the near-shore region to oceanic structure west of the continental borderland. While the most prominent features of the model relate to thinning of the crust west of the Patton Escarpment, other notable anomalies are present north-to-south throughout the continental borderland and along the coast from the Los Angeles Basin to the Peninsular Ranges. The velocity model will help describe the region's tectonic history, as well as provide new constraints for determination of earthquake relocations and rupture styles.

  14. Effect of species rarity on the accuracy of species distribution models for reptiles and amphibians in southern California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Franklin, J.; Wejnert, K.E.; Hathaway, S.A.; Rochester, C.J.; Fisher, R.N.

    2009-01-01

    Aim: Several studies have found that more accurate predictive models of species' occurrences can be developed for rarer species; however, one recent study found the relationship between range size and model performance to be an artefact of sample prevalence, that is, the proportion of presence versus absence observations in the data used to train the model. We examined the effect of model type, species rarity class, species' survey frequency, detectability and manipulated sample prevalence on the accuracy of distribution models developed for 30 reptile and amphibian species. Location: Coastal southern California, USA. Methods: Classification trees, generalized additive models and generalized linear models were developed using species presence and absence data from 420 locations. Model performance was measured using sensitivity, specificity and the area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) plot based on twofold cross-validation, or on bootstrapping. Predictors included climate, terrain, soil and vegetation variables. Species were assigned to rarity classes by experts. The data were sampled to generate subsets with varying ratios of presences and absences to test for the effect of sample prevalence. Join count statistics were used to characterize spatial dependence in the prediction errors. Results: Species in classes with higher rarity were more accurately predicted than common species, and this effect was independent of sample prevalence. Although positive spatial autocorrelation remained in the prediction errors, it was weaker than was observed in the species occurrence data. The differences in accuracy among model types were slight. Main conclusions: Using a variety of modelling methods, more accurate species distribution models were developed for rarer than for more common species. This was presumably because it is difficult to discriminate suitable from unsuitable habitat for habitat generalists, and not as an artefact of the

  15. Ecological niche and geographic distribution of human monkeypox in Africa.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rebecca S Levine

    Full Text Available Monkeypox virus, a zoonotic member of the genus Orthopoxviridae, can cause a severe, smallpox-like illness in humans. Monkeypox virus is thought to be endemic to forested areas of western and Central Africa. Considerably more is known about human monkeypox disease occurrence than about natural sylvatic cycles of this virus in non-human animal hosts. We use human monkeypox case data from Africa for 1970-2003 in an ecological niche modeling framework to construct predictive models of the ecological requirements and geographic distribution of monkeypox virus across West and Central Africa. Tests of internal predictive ability using different subsets of input data show the model to be highly robust and suggest that the distinct phylogenetic lineages of monkeypox in West Africa and Central Africa occupy similar ecological niches. High mean annual precipitation and low elevations were shown to be highly correlated with human monkeypox disease occurrence. The synthetic picture of the potential geographic distribution of human monkeypox in Africa resulting from this study should support ongoing epidemiologic and ecological studies, as well as help to guide public health intervention strategies to areas at highest risk for human monkeypox.

  16. LA NICHE ÉCOLOGIQUE: CONCEPTS, MODÈLES, APPLICATIONS

    OpenAIRE

    Pocheville, Arnaud

    2010-01-01

    Cette thèse est une enquête sur le concept de niche et quelques grands cadres théoriques qui y sont apparentés: la théorie de la niche et la théorie neutraliste en écologie, la théorie de la construction de niche en biologie évolutive, et la niche des cellules souches en écologie intra-organisme. Le premier chapitre retrace l'histoire du concept de niche et confronte la théorie de la niche à une théorie concurrente, la théorie neutraliste. Le concept de niche apparaît comme devant être un exp...

  17. Natural Gas Variability In California: Environmental Impacts And Device Performance Combustion Modeling of Pollutant Emissions From a Residential Cooking Range

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tonse, S. R.; Singer, B. C.

    2011-07-01

    As part of a larger study of liquefied natural gas impacts on device performance and pollutant emissions for existing equipment in California, this report describes a cmoputer modeling study of a partially premixed flame issueing from a single cooktop burner port. The model consisted of a reactive computational fluid dynamics three-dimensional spatial grid and a 71-species chemical mechanism with propane combustion capability. Simulations were conducted with a simplified fuel mixture containing methane, ethane, and propane in proportions that yield properties similar to fuels distributed throughout much of California now and in recent years (baseline fuel), as well as with two variations of simulated liquefied natural gas blends. A variety of simulations were conducted with baseline fuel to explore the effect of several key parameters on pollutant formation and other flame characteristics. Simulations started with fuel and air issuing through the burner port, igniting, and continuing until the flame was steady with time. Conditions at this point were analyzed to understand fuel, secondary air and reaction product flows, regions of pollutant formation, and exhaust concentrations of carbon monoxide, nitric oxide and formaldehyde. A sensitivity study was conducted, varying the inflow parameters of this baseline gs about real-world operating conditions. Flame properties responded as expected from reactive flow theory. In the simulation, carbon monoxide levels were influenced more by the mixture's inflow velocity than by the gas-to-air ratio in the mixture issuing from the inflow port. Additional simulations were executed at two inflow conditions - high heat release and medium heat release - to examine the impact of replacing the baseline gas with two mixtures representative of liquefied natural gas. Flame properties and pollutant generation rates were very similar among the three fuel mixtures.

  18. District Allocation of Human Resources Utilizing the Evidence Based Model: A Study of One High Achieving School District in Southern California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lane, Amber Marie

    2013-01-01

    This study applies the Gap Analysis Framework to understand the gaps that exist in human resource allocation of one Southern California school district. Once identified, gaps are closed with the reallocation of human resources, according to the Evidenced Based Model, requiring the re-purposing of core classroom teachers, specialists, special…

  19. Untangling the fungal niche: the trait-based approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crowther, Thomas W; Maynard, Daniel S; Crowther, Terence R; Peccia, Jordan; Smith, Jeffrey R; Bradford, Mark A

    2014-01-01

    Fungi are prominent components of most terrestrial ecosystems, both in terms of biomass and ecosystem functioning, but the hyper-diverse nature of most communities has obscured the search for unifying principles governing community organization. In particular, unlike plants and animals, observational studies provide little evidence for the existence of niche processes in structuring fungal communities at broad spatial scales. This limits our capacity to predict how communities, and their functioning, vary across landscapes. We outline how a shift in focus, from taxonomy toward functional traits, might prove to be valuable in the search for general patterns in fungal ecology. We build on theoretical advances in plant and animal ecology to provide an empirical framework for a trait-based approach in fungal community ecology. Drawing upon specific characteristics of the fungal system, we highlight the significance of drought stress and combat in structuring free-living fungal communities. We propose a conceptual model to formalize how trade-offs between stress-tolerance and combative dominance are likely to organize communities across environmental gradients. Given that the survival of a fungus in a given environment is contingent on its ability to tolerate antagonistic competitors, measuring variation in combat trait expression along environmental gradients provides a means of elucidating realized, from fundamental niche spaces. We conclude that, using a trait-based understanding of how niche processes structure fungal communities across time and space, we can ultimately link communities with ecosystem functioning. Our trait-based framework highlights fundamental uncertainties that require testing in the fungal system, given their potential to uncover general mechanisms in fungal ecology. PMID:25400630

  20. UNTANGLING THE FUNGAL NICHE: A TRAIT-BASED APPROACH

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas W Crowther

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Fungi are prominent components of most terrestrial ecosystems, both in terms of biomass and ecosystem functioning, but the hyper-diverse nature of most communities has obscured the search for unifying principles governing community organization. In particular, unlike plants and animals, observational studies provide little evidence for the existence of niche processes in structuring fungal communities at broad spatial scales. This limits our capacity to predict how communities, and their functioning, vary across landscapes. We outline how a shift in focus, from taxonomy towards functional traits, might prove to be valuable in the search for general patterns in fungal ecology. We build on theoretical advances in plant and animal ecology to provide an empirical framework for a trait-based approach in fungal community ecology. Drawing upon specific characteristics of the fungal system, we highlight the significance of drought stress and combat in structuring free-living fungal communities. We propose a conceptual model to formalize how trade-offs between stress-tolerance and combative dominance are likely to organize communities across environmental gradients. Given that the survival of a fungus in a given environment is contingent on its ability to tolerate antagonistic competitors, measuring variation in combat trait expression along environmental gradients provides a means of elucidating realized, from fundamental niche spaces. We conclude that, using a trait-based understanding of how niche processes structure fungal communities across time and space, we can ultimately link communities with ecosystem functioning. Our trait-based framework highlights fundamental uncertainties that require testing in the fungal system, given their potential to uncover general mechanisms in fungal ecology.

  1. Cigarette Smoke Alters the Hematopoietic Stem Cell Niche

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert W. Siggins

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Effects of tobacco smoke on hematologic derangements have received little attention. This study employed a mouse model of cigarette smoke exposure to explore the effects on bone marrow niche function. While lung cancer is the most widely studied consequence of tobacco smoke exposure, other malignancies, including leukemia, are associated with tobacco smoke exposure. Animals received cigarette smoke exposure for 6 h/day, 5 days/week for 9 months. Results reveal that the hematopoietic stem and progenitor cell (HSPC pool size is reduced by cigarette smoke exposure. We next examined the effect of cigarette smoke exposure on one supporting cell type of the niche, the mesenchymal stromal cells (MSCs. Smoke exposure decreased the number of MSCs. Transplantation of naïve HSPCs into irradiated mice with cigarette smoke exposure yielded fewer numbers of engrafted HSPCs. This result suggests that smoke-exposed mice possess dysfunctional niches, resulting in abnormal hematopoiesis. Co-culture experiments using MSCs isolated from control or cigarette smoke-exposed mice with naïve HSPCs in vitro showed that MSCs from cigarette smoke-exposed mice generated marked expansion of naïve HSPCs. These data show that cigarette smoke exposure decreases in vivo MSC and HSC number and also increases pro-proliferative gene expression by cigarette smoke-exposed MSCs, which may stimulate HSPC expansion. These results of this investigation are clinically relevant to both bone marrow donors with a history of smoking and bone marrow transplant (BMT recipients with a history of smoking.

  2. Use of ecological niche models to predict the distribution of invasive species: a scientometric analysis Uso de modelos de nicho ecológico para predizer a distribuição de espécies invasoras: uma análise cienciométrica

    OpenAIRE

    FG. Barbosa; F. Schneck; AS. Melo

    2012-01-01

    We conducted a scientometric analysis to determine the main trends and gaps of studies on the use of ecological niche models (ENMs) to predict the distribution of invasive species. We used the database of the Thomson Institute for Scientific Information (ISI). We found 190 papers published between 1991 and 2010 in 82 journals. The number of papers was low in the 1990s, but began to increase after 2003. One-third of the papers were published by researchers from the United States of America, an...

  3. Niche Width and the Dynamics of Organizational Populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freeman, John; Hannan, Michael T.

    1983-01-01

    A model of the manner in which environmental variations affect the life chances of specialist and generalist organizations was applied to a sample of restaurant organizations in 18 California cities. One finding was that specialist organizations are favored in fine-grained environments (i.e., when sales variations are nonseasonal). (Author/RM)

  4. Species versus guild level differentiation revealed across the annual cycle by isotopic niche examination.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bodey, Thomas W; Ward, Eric J; Phillips, Richard A; McGill, Rona A R; Bearhop, Stuart

    2014-03-01

    Interspecific competitive interactions typically result in niche differentiation to alleviate competition through mechanisms including character displacement. However, competition is not the sole constraint on resource partitioning, and its effects are mediated by factors including the environmental context in which species coexist. Colonial seabirds provide an excellent opportunity to investigate the importance of competition in shaping realized niche widths because their life histories lead to variation in intra- and interspecific competition across the annual cycle. Dense breeding aggregations result in intense competition for prey in surrounding waters, whereas non-breeding dispersal to larger geographical areas produces lower densities of competitors. Bayesian hierarchical models of the isotopic niche, closely aligned to the trophic niche, reveal the degree of segregation between species and functional groups during both time periods. Surprisingly, species explained far more of the variance in the isotopic niche during the non-breeding than the breeding period. Our results underline the key role of non-breeding dynamics in alleviating competition and promoting distinctions between species through the facilitation of resource partitioning. Such situations may be common in a diverse range of communities sustained by ephemeral but abundant food items. This highlights how consideration of the hierarchical grouping of competitive interactions alongside consideration of abiotic constraints across the complete annual cycle allows a full understanding of the role of competition in driving patterns of character displacement. PMID:24215391

  5. Creatures of Norms as Uncanny Niche Constructors

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Peregrin, Jaroslav

    London: College Publications, 2011 - (Hříbek, T.; Hvorecký, J.), s. 189-190. (Texts in Philosophy. 15). ISBN 978-1-84890-043-1. [Knowledge, Value, Evolution . Praha (CZ), 23.11.2009-25.11.2009] R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GAP401/10/0146 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z90090514 Keywords : evolution * rules * gene-culture coevolution * virtual niches Subject RIV: AA - Philosophy ; Religion

  6. BMP signaling in the nephron progenitor niche

    OpenAIRE

    Oxburgh, Leif; Brown, Aaron C.; Fetting, Jennifer; Hill, Beth

    2011-01-01

    Bone morphogenic proteins (BMPs) play diverse roles in embryonic kidney development, regulating essential aspects of both ureteric bud and nephron development. In this review, we provide an overview of reported expression patterns and functions of BMP signaling components within the nephrogenic zone or nephron progenitor niche of the developing kidney. Reported in situ hybridization results are relatively challenging to interpret and sometimes conflicting. Comparing these with high-resolution...

  7. An Innovative Modeling and Measurement Approach to Improve Rice Water Use Efficiency in California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montazar, A.; Little, C.; Rejmanek, H.; Tindula, G.; Snyder, R. L.

    2014-12-01

    California is amongst the top rice producing states in the USA, and more than 95 percent of California's rice is grown in the Sacramento Valley. Based on older literature, the rice water requirement (ETc), ranges between 914 and 1,100 mm. In this study, the actual rice water requirement was measured using the residual of the energy balance method over three paddy rice fields during 2011-2013 seasons in the Sacramento Valley. Net radiation and ground heat flux density were measured, and both eddy covariance (EC) and the surface renewal (SR) technique were employed to determine the sensible heat flux density. The surface renewal method uses high frequency temperature measurements from fine wire thermocouples above the canopy. Mean amplitude and duration of the ramps over half hour periods were determined using a structure function and the characteristics are employed to estimate the direction and magnitude of sensible heat flux using the ratio of the amplitude to the ramp duration as the change in temperature per unit time and the volumetric heat capacity of the air to estimate the magnitude of the heat flux. In the study, 76.2 mm diameter chromel-constantan thermocouples were used to measure high frequency temperature at 10 Hz. The results indicate that there is considerable variability in rice water use both spatially and temporally. The average three-year measured ET of the experimental fields located in Butte County was 734 and 725 mm; and in Colusa County was 771 mm. A typical crop coefficient (Kc) curve was derived from the measured ETc and reference ET (ETo) data. Spatial estimates of monthly climate data from the Sacramento Valley were used to calculate monthly mean ETo, and smooth curve fits of the monthly data gave estimates of typical daily ETo. The daily ETc was calculated as the product of ETo and Kc, and seasonal ETc was calculated by summing the daily ETc values. The results reveal that the seasonal rice ETc was less than earlier estimates. Surface

  8. Marble Algorithm: a solution to estimating ecological niches from presence-only records.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qiao, Huijie; Lin, Congtian; Jiang, Zhigang; Ji, Liqiang

    2015-01-01

    We describe an algorithm that helps to predict potential distributional areas for species using presence-only records. The Marble Algorithm is a density-based clustering program based on Hutchinson's concept of ecological niches as multidimensional hypervolumes in environmental space. The algorithm characterizes this niche space using the density-based spatial clustering of applications with noise (DBSCAN) algorithm. When MA is provided with a set of occurrence points in environmental space, the algorithm determines two parameters that allow the points to be grouped into several clusters. These clusters are used as reference sets describing the ecological niche, which can then be mapped onto geographic space and used as the potential distribution of the species. We used both virtual species and ten empirical datasets to compare MA with other distribution-modeling tools, including Bioclimate Analysis and Prediction System, Environmental Niche Factor Analysis, the Genetic Algorithm for Rule-set Production, Maximum Entropy Modeling, Artificial Neural Networks, Climate Space Models, Classification Tree Analysis, Generalised Additive Models, Generalised Boosted Models, Generalised Linear Models, Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines and Random Forests. Results indicate that MA predicts potential distributional areas with high accuracy, moderate robustness, and above-average transferability on all datasets, particularly when dealing with small numbers of occurrences. PMID:26387771

  9. Chapter F. The Loma Prieta, California, Earthquake of October 17, 1989 - Tectonic Processes and Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simpson, Robert W.

    1994-01-01

    If there is a single theme that unifies the diverse papers in this chapter, it is the attempt to understand the role of the Loma Prieta earthquake in the context of the earthquake 'machine' in northern California: as the latest event in a long history of shocks in the San Francisco Bay region, as an incremental contributor to the regional deformation pattern, and as a possible harbinger of future large earthquakes. One of the surprises generated by the earthquake was the rather large amount of uplift that occurred as a result of the reverse component of slip on the southwest-dipping fault plane. Preearthquake conventional wisdom had been that large earthquakes in the region would probably be caused by horizontal, right-lateral, strike-slip motion on vertical fault planes. In retrospect, the high topography of the Santa Cruz Mountains and the elevated marine terraces along the coast should have provided some clues. With the observed ocean retreat and the obvious uplift of the coast near Santa Cruz that accompanied the earthquake, Mother Nature was finally caught in the act. Several investigators quickly saw the connection between the earthquake uplift and the long-term evolution of the Santa Cruz Mountains and realized that important insights were to be gained by attempting to quantify the process of crustal deformation in terms of Loma Prieta-type increments of northward transport and fault-normal shortening.

  10. Earthquake Rate Model 2 of the 2007 Working Group for California Earthquake Probabilities, Magnitude-Area Relationships

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stein, Ross S.

    2008-01-01

    The Working Group for California Earthquake Probabilities must transform fault lengths and their slip rates into earthquake moment-magnitudes. First, the down-dip coseismic fault dimension, W, must be inferred. We have chosen the Nazareth and Hauksson (2004) method, which uses the depth above which 99% of the background seismicity occurs to assign W. The product of the observed or inferred fault length, L, with the down-dip dimension, W, gives the fault area, A. We must then use a scaling relation to relate A to moment-magnitude, Mw. We assigned equal weight to the Ellsworth B (Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities, 2003) and Hanks and Bakun (2007) equations. The former uses a single logarithmic relation fitted to the M=6.5 portion of data of Wells and Coppersmith (1994); the latter uses a bilinear relation with a slope change at M=6.65 (A=537 km2) and also was tested against a greatly expanded dataset for large continental transform earthquakes. We also present an alternative power law relation, which fits the newly expanded Hanks and Bakun (2007) data best, and captures the change in slope that Hanks and Bakun attribute to a transition from area- to length-scaling of earthquake slip. We have not opted to use the alternative relation for the current model. The selections and weights were developed by unanimous consensus of the Executive Committee of the Working Group, following an open meeting of scientists, a solicitation of outside opinions from additional scientists, and presentation of our approach to the Scientific Review Panel. The magnitude-area relations and their assigned weights are unchanged from that used in Working Group (2003).

  11. Application of a new model for groundwater age distributions: Modeling and isotopic analysis of artificial recharge in the Rialto-Colton basin, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ginn, T.R.; Woolfenden, L.

    2002-01-01

    A project for modeling and isotopic analysis of artificial recharge in the Rialto-Colton basin aquifer in California, is discussed. The Rialto-Colton aquifer has been divided into four primary and significant flowpaths following the general direction of groundwater flow from NW to SE. The introductory investigation include sophisticated chemical reaction modeling, with highly simplified flow path simulation. A comprehensive reactive transport model with the established set of geochemical reactions over the whole aquifer will also be developed for treating both reactions and transport realistically. This will be completed by making use of HBGC123D implemented with isotopic calculation step to compute Carbon-14 (C14) and stable Carbon-13 (C13) contents of the water. Computed carbon contents will also be calibrated with the measured carbon contents for assessment of the amount of imported recharge into the Linden pond.

  12. The Effects of Student Demographics and School Resources on California School Performance Gain: A Fixed Effects Panel Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Mei-Jiun

    2013-01-01

    Background/Context: Recently emerged with the implementation of the California's Public Schools Accountability Act of 1999 and the NCLB Act of 2001 is an increase in the number of education production function studies estimating the relationship between educational inputs and APIs. While the majority of past research on California school…

  13. Ecological Niche Divergence between Trapelus ruderatus (Olivier, 1807) and T. persicus (Blanford, 1881) (Sauria:Agamidae) in the Middle East

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Omid MIRSHAMSI; etin ILGAZ; Yusuf KUMLUTA; Aziz AVCI

    2016-01-01

    Modeling the potential distribution areas for a given species is important in understanding the relationship between the actual distribution and the most suitable habitat for a species. In this study, we obtained all available records of Trapelus ruderatus and Trapelus persicus from museums, literature and fieldwork and used them with environmental layers in the Maximum Entropy algorithm to predict highly suitable habitat areas. The distribution model of T. ruderatus and T. persicus showed excellent performance for both models (T. ruderatus AUC = 0.964 ± 0.001 and T. persicus AUC= 0.996 ± 0.003), and predicted suitable regions in Iran, Turkey, Iraq and Syria. Niche overlap was measured between the two groups by ENMtools and 13% overlapped. We used a niche identity test to determine differences between the niches of the two species. Finally, by comparing our null hypothesis to the true niche overlap of the two species, we were able to reject our null hypothesis of no difference between the niches. Due to the sympatric distribution pattern of these species, we do not need a background test for niche divergence.

  14. Dynamic modeling of organophosphate pesticide load in surface water in the northern San Joaquin Valley watershed of California

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Luo Yuzhou [Department of Land, Air and Water Resources, University of California, Davis, CA 95616 (United States); Institute of Watershed Science and Environmental Ecology, Wenzhou Medical College, Wenzhou, 325000 (China); Zhang Xuyang [Department of Land, Air and Water Resources, University of California, Davis, CA 95616 (United States); Liu Xingmei [Department of Land, Air and Water Resources, University of California, Davis, CA 95616 (United States); Institute of Soil, Water and Environmental Science, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310029 (China); Ficklin, Darren [Department of Land, Air and Water Resources, University of California, Davis, CA 95616 (United States); Zhang Minghua [Department of Land, Air and Water Resources, University of California, Davis, CA 95616 (United States); Institute of Watershed Science and Environmental Ecology, Wenzhou Medical College, Wenzhou, 325000 (China)], E-mail: mhzhang@ucdavis.edu

    2008-12-15

    The hydrology, sediment, and pesticide transport components of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) were evaluated on the northern San Joaquin Valley watershed of California. The Nash-Sutcliffe coefficients for monthly stream flow and sediment load ranged from 0.49 to 0.99 over the watershed during the study period of 1992-2005. The calibrated SWAT model was applied to simulate fate and transport processes of two organophosphate pesticides of diazinon and chlorpyrifos at watershed scale. The model generated satisfactory predictions of dissolved pesticide loads relative to the monitoring data. The model also showed great success in capturing spatial patterns of dissolved diazinon and chlorpyrifos loads according to the soil properties and landscape morphology over the large agricultural watershed. This study indicated that curve number was the major factor influencing the hydrology while pesticide fate and transport were mainly affected by surface runoff and pesticide application and in the study area. - Major factors governing the instream loads of organophosphate pesticides are magnitude and timing of surface runoff and pesticide application.

  15. Marine organism concentrations, carbonate chemistry variables, and nutrient concentrations from Atlantis ecosystem model simulation output in the California Current from 2013-01-01 to 2053-12-31 to understand vulnerability of California current food webs and economics to ocean acidification (NCEI Accession 0131198)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This archival package contains the model output of a study to evaluate likely economic and ecological outcomes of ocean acidification in the California Current....

  16. Mapping the zoonotic niche of Ebola virus disease in Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pigott, David M; Golding, Nick; Mylne, Adrian; Huang, Zhi; Henry, Andrew J; Weiss, Daniel J; Brady, Oliver J; Kraemer, Moritz UG; Smith, David L; Moyes, Catherine L; Bhatt, Samir; Gething, Peter W; Horby, Peter W; Bogoch, Isaac I; Brownstein, John S; Mekaru, Sumiko R; Tatem, Andrew J; Khan, Kamran; Hay, Simon I

    2014-01-01

    Ebola virus disease (EVD) is a complex zoonosis that is highly virulent in humans. The largest recorded outbreak of EVD is ongoing in West Africa, outside of its previously reported and predicted niche. We assembled location data on all recorded zoonotic transmission to humans and Ebola virus infection in bats and primates (1976–2014). Using species distribution models, these occurrence data were paired with environmental covariates to predict a zoonotic transmission niche covering 22 countries across Central and West Africa. Vegetation, elevation, temperature, evapotranspiration, and suspected reservoir bat distributions define this relationship. At-risk areas are inhabited by 22 million people; however, the rarity of human outbreaks emphasises the very low probability of transmission to humans. Increasing population sizes and international connectivity by air since the first detection of EVD in 1976 suggest that the dynamics of human-to-human secondary transmission in contemporary outbreaks will be very different to those of the past. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.04395.001 PMID:25201877

  17. Sources of variation in small rodent trophic niche: new insights from DNA metabarcoding and stable isotope analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soininen, Eeva M; Ehrich, Dorothée; Lecomte, Nicolas; Yoccoz, Nigel G; Tarroux, Arnaud; Berteaux, Dominique; Gauthier, Gilles; Gielly, Ludovic; Brochmann, Christian; Gussarova, Galina; Ims, Rolf A

    2014-01-01

    Intraspecific competition for food is expected to increase the trophic niche width of consumers, defined here as their diet diversity, but this process has been little studied in herbivores. Population densities of small rodents fluctuate greatly, providing a good study model to evaluate effects of competition on trophic niche. We studied resource use in five arctic small rodent populations of four species combining DNA metabarcoding of stomach contents and stable isotope analysis (SIA). Our results suggest that for small rodents, the most pronounced effect of competition on trophic niche is due to increased use of secondary habitats and to habitat-specific diets, rather than an expansion of trophic niche in primary habitat. DNA metabarcoding and SIA provided complementary information about the composition and temporal variation of herbivore diets. Combing these two approaches requires caution, as the underlying processes causing observed patterns may differ between methodologies due to different spatiotemporal scales. PMID:24830842

  18. Legal and Policy Issues Regarding Niche Charter Schools: Race, Religion, Culture, and the Law

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eckes, Suzanne E.; Fox, Robert A.; Buchanan, Nina K.

    2011-01-01

    A growing number of ethnocentric or culturally oriented niche charter schools have opened around the country. These ethnic or culture-oriented models raise legal and policy concerns about church/state entanglement as well as concerns about diversity. Indeed, there has already been litigation focused on racial and ethnic aspects of charter schools…

  19. Thermal niche estimators and the capability of poor dispersal species to cope with climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sánchez-Fernández, David; Rizzo, Valeria; Cieslak, Alexandra; Faille, Arnaud; Fresneda, Javier; Ribera, Ignacio

    2016-03-01

    For management strategies in the context of global warming, accurate predictions of species response are mandatory. However, to date most predictions are based on niche (bioclimatic) models that usually overlook biotic interactions, behavioral adjustments or adaptive evolution, and assume that species can disperse freely without constraints. The deep subterranean environment minimises these uncertainties, as it is simple, homogeneous and with constant environmental conditions. It is thus an ideal model system to study the effect of global change in species with poor dispersal capabilities. We assess the potential fate of a lineage of troglobitic beetles under global change predictions using different approaches to estimate their thermal niche: bioclimatic models, rates of thermal niche change estimated from a molecular phylogeny, and data from physiological studies. Using bioclimatic models, at most 60% of the species were predicted to have suitable conditions in 2080. Considering the rates of thermal niche change did not improve this prediction. However, physiological data suggest that subterranean species have a broad thermal tolerance, allowing them to stand temperatures never experienced through their evolutionary history. These results stress the need of experimental approaches to assess the capability of poor dispersal species to cope with temperatures outside those they currently experience.

  20. Analytical modeling of gravity changes and crustal deformation at volcanoes: The Long Valley caldera, California, case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Battaglia, Maurizio; Hill, D.P.

    2009-01-01

    Joint measurements of ground deformation and micro-gravity changes are an indispensable component for any volcano monitoring strategy. A number of analytical mathematical models are available in the literature that can be used to fit geodetic data and infer source location, depth and density. Bootstrap statistical methods allow estimations of the range of the inferred parameters. Although analytical models often assume that the crust is elastic, homogenous and isotropic, they can take into account different source geometries, the influence of topography, and gravity background noise. The careful use of analytical models, together with high quality data sets, can produce valuable insights into the nature of the deformation/gravity source. Here we present a review of various modeling methods, and use the historical unrest at Long Valley caldera (California) from 1982 to 1999 to illustrate the practical application of analytical modeling and bootstrap to constrain the source of unrest. A key question is whether the unrest at Long Valley since the late 1970s can be explained without calling upon an intrusion of magma. The answer, apparently, is no. Our modeling indicates that the inflation source is a slightly tilted prolate ellipsoid (dip angle between 91?? and 105??) at a depth of 6.5 to 7.9??km beneath the caldera resurgent dome with an aspect ratio between 0.44 and 0.60, a volume change from 0.161 to 0.173??km3 and a density of 1241 to 2093??kg/m3. The larger uncertainty of the density estimate reflects the higher noise of gravity measurements. These results are consistent with the intrusion of silicic magma with a significant amount of volatiles beneath the caldera resurgent dome. ?? 2008 Elsevier B.V.

  1. Health benefits of reducing sugar-sweetened beverage intake in high risk populations of California: results from the cardiovascular disease (CVD policy model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tekeshe A Mekonnen

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Consumption of sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB has risen over the past two decades, with over 10 million Californians drinking one or more SSB per day. High SSB intake is associated with risk of type 2 diabetes, obesity, hypertension, and coronary heart disease (CHD. Reduction of SSB intake and the potential impact on health outcomes in California and among racial, ethnic, and low-income sub-groups has not been quantified. METHODS: We projected the impact of reduced SSB consumption on health outcomes among all Californians and California subpopulations from 2013 to 2022. We used the CVD Policy Model - CA, an established computer simulation of diabetes and heart disease adapted to California. We modeled a reduction in SSB intake by 10-20% as has been projected to result from proposed penny-per-ounce excise tax on SSB and modeled varying effects of this reduction on health parameters including body mass index, blood pressure, and diabetes risk. We projected avoided cases of diabetes and CHD, and associated health care cost savings in 2012 US dollars. RESULTS: Over the next decade, a 10-20% SSB consumption reduction is projected to result in a 1.8-3.4% decline in the new cases of diabetes and an additional drop of 0.5-1% in incident CHD cases and 0.5-0.9% in total myocardial infarctions. The greatest reductions are expected in African Americans, Mexican Americans, and those with limited income regardless of race and ethnicity. This reduction in SSB consumption is projected to yield $320-620 million in medical cost savings associated with diabetes cases averted and an additional savings of $14-27 million in diabetes-related CHD costs avoided. CONCLUSIONS: A reduction of SSB consumption could yield substantial population health benefits and cost savings for California. In particular, racial, ethnic, and low-income subgroups of California could reap the greatest health benefits.

  2. Long-term particulate matter modeling for health effects studies in California – Part 1: Model performance on temporal and spatial variations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Hu

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available For the first time, a decadal (9 years from 2000 to 2008 air quality model simulation with 4 km horizontal resolution and daily time resolution has been conducted in California to provide air quality data for health effects studies. Model predictions are compared to measurements to evaluate the accuracy of the simulation with an emphasis on spatial and temporal variations that could be used in epidemiology studies. Better model performance is found at longer averaging times, suggesting that model results with averaging times ≥ 1 month should be the first to be considered in epidemiological studies. The UCD/CIT model predicts spatial and temporal variations in the concentrations of O3, PM2.5, EC, OC, nitrate, and ammonium that meet standard modeling performance criteria when compared to monthly-averaged measurements. Predicted sulfate concentrations do not meet target performance metrics due to missing sulfur sources in the emissions. Predicted seasonal and annual variations of PM2.5, EC, OC, nitrate, and ammonium have mean fractional biases that meet the model performance criteria in 95%, 100%, 71%, 73%, and 92% of the simulated months, respectively. The base dataset provides an improvement for predicted population exposure to PM concentrations in California compared to exposures estimated by central site monitors operated one day out of every 3 days at a few urban locations. Uncertainties in the model predictions arise from several issues. Incomplete understanding of secondary organic aerosol formation mechanisms leads to OC bias in the model results in summertime but does not affect OC predictions in winter when concentrations are typically highest. The CO and NO (species dominated by mobile emissions results reveal temporal and spatial uncertainties associated with the mobile emissions generated by the EMFAC 2007 model. The WRF model tends to over-predict wind speed during stagnation events, leading to under-predictions of high PM

  3. Niche and Neutral Processes Together Determine Diversity Loss in Response to Fertilization in an Alpine Meadow Community.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei Li

    Full Text Available Fertilization via nutrient deposition and agricultural inputs is one of the most important factors driving decreases in plant diversity. However, we still do not fully understand which processes (niche process or neutral process are more important in leading to decreases in plant diversity caused by fertilization. A hypothesis-based approach was used to test the relative importance of niche versus neutral processes along a fertilization gradient in an alpine meadow community on the eastern Tibetan plateau, China. Niche overlap values were calculated for species biomass, and the null model was used to generate the values of niche overlap expected at random. A linear regression modeling was used to evaluate the relationship between functional traits (specific leaf area, leaf dry matter content, and leaf total nitrogen concentration and species relative abundance. Our results demonstrated that observed niche overlap for species biomass was significantly higher than expected at lower fertilization gradients. Moreover, we also found a significantly negative correlation between species relative abundance and specific leaf area and leaf dry matter content, but a significantly positive correlation between relative abundance and leaf nitrogen concentration at lower fertilization gradients. However, these relationships were not significant at higher fertilization gradients. We concluded that community assembly is dynamic progression along the environmental gradients, and niche and neutral processes may together determine species diversity loss in response to fertilization.

  4. Claregalway Franciscan Friary, north chancel wall, tomb niche, jamb

    OpenAIRE

    O'Donovan, Danielle

    2001-01-01

    Jamb of tomb niche, larger rolls topped by capitals and bases. Moulding from inner face comprises: large roll, hollow, roll, hollow, roll, hollow, large roll, hollow, roll, hollow, roll - this roll runs into the flat wall surface. Few of these western tomb niches have separate straight jambs with shafts provided with capitals and bases - this occurs more in fourteenth-century work like that at Kilmallock Dominican Priory, suggesting that this niche at Claregalway may be similar in date to tha...

  5. Can Niche Agriculturalists Take Notes from the Craft Beer Industry?

    OpenAIRE

    Woolverton, Andrea E.; Parcell, Joseph L.

    2008-01-01

    This industry-level case study focuses on the growth cycles of craft brewing, a niche industry. The research case is defined as the craft beer industry evolution including the surrounding institutional and consumer environments. The research goal is to provide insight for niche agriculturalists by examining the case of the successful niche craft beer industry. First, the environment surrounding craft beer reemergence is analyzed. We examine the current state of the craft beer industry with a ...

  6. Niche Genetic Algorithm with Accurate Optimization Performance

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LIU Jian-hua; YAN De-kun

    2005-01-01

    Based on crowding mechanism, a novel niche genetic algorithm was proposed which can record evolutionary direction dynamically during evolution. After evolution, the solutions's precision can be greatly improved by means of the local searching along the recorded direction. Simulation shows that this algorithm can not only keep population diversity but also find accurate solutions. Although using this method has to take more time compared with the standard GA, it is really worth applying to some cases that have to meet a demand for high solution precision.

  7. Market niche analysis in the casino gaming industry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dandurand, L

    1990-03-01

    This article discusses the nature of market niche analysis in the casino gaming industry. It presents four approaches for conducting market niche analysis. An an example of one approach, the Las Vegas Visitor Profile Study is used to identify a premium niche in the Las Vegas Slot Target Market. A detailed examination of the premium niche profile provides a description of the typical premium slot player. The description of the typical premium player leads to hypotheses regarding needs (the unique preference set) of the premium player. An analysis of the unique preference set suggests an appropriate enhanced marketing program. PMID:24242795

  8. Variability of indicator values for ozone production sensitivity: a model study in Switzerland and San Joaquin Valley (California)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The threshold values of indicator species and ratios delineating the transition between NOx and VOC sensitivity of ozone formation are assumed to be universal by various investigators. However, our previous studies suggested that threshold values might vary according to the locations and conditions. In this study, threshold values derived from various model simulations at two different locations (the area of Switzerland by UAM Model and San Joaquin Valley of Central California by SAQM Model) are examined using a new approach for defining NOx and VOC sensitive regimes. Possible definitions for the distinction of NOx and VOC sensitive ozone production regimes are given. The dependence of the threshold values for indicators and indicator ratios such as NOy, O3/NOz, HCHO/NOy, and H2O2/HNO3 on the definition of NOx and VOC sensitivity is discussed. Then the variations of threshold values under low emission conditions and in two different days are examined in both areas to check whether the models respond consistently to changes in environmental conditions. In both cases, threshold values are shifted similarly when emissions are reduced. Changes in the wind fields and aging of the photochemical oxidants seem to cause the day-to-day variation of the threshold values. O3/NOz and HCHO/NOy indicators are predicted to be unsatisfactory to separate the NOx and VOC sensitive regimes. Although NOy and H2O2/HNO3 provide a good separation of the two regimes, threshold values are affected by changes in the environmental conditions studied in this work. (author)

  9. Introducing the Clean-Tech Adoption Model: A California Case Study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bijlveld, P.C. (Paul); Riezebos, P. (Peter); Wierstra, E. (Erik)

    2012-01-01

    Abstract. The Clean-Tech Adoption Model (C-TAM) explains the adoption process of clean technology. Based on the Unified Theory of Acceptance and Usage of Technology (UTAUT) combined with qualitative research and empirical data gathering, the model predicts adoption based on the perceived quality, ef

  10. Climatic niche at physiological and macroecological scales: The thermal tolerance-geographical range interface and niche dimensionality

    OpenAIRE

    Gouveia, S. F.; Hortal, Joaquín; Tejedo, Miguel; Duarte, Helder; Cassemiro, F. A. S.; Navas, C. A.; J. A. F. Diniz-filho

    2014-01-01

    Aim: Under the Hutchinsonian concept of the realized niche, biotic interactions and dispersal limitation may prevent species from fully occupying areas that they could tolerate physiologically. This can hamper the translation of physiological limits into climatically defined range limits and distorts inferences of evolutionary changes of the adaptive limits (i.e. niche conservatism). In contrast, heritable physiological limits should conform more closely to the position of the niche in the cl...

  11. Modeling Particulate Matter Plumes from 2007 California Wildland Fires Using a Coupled Emissions-Transport System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koziol, B. W.; Owen, R. C.; Erickson, T. A.; French, N. H.

    2010-12-01

    Transport of particulate matter (PM) emissions from 2007 wildland fires in San Diego County were modeled using the HYbrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT model). Fire PM sources (2.5 and 10) were estimated using a statistical, empirically-based fuel consumption and emission model (CONSUME) parameterized using weather data and fuel loadings from the Fuel Characteristics Classification System (FCCS). Using vectorized temporal burn perimeters derived from geostatistical interpolation of fire progression remote sensing images and local physiographic indicators, CONSUME emissions outputs were generated for the daily burned area and entered into HYSPLIT for the transport component. Total daily PM fire emissions were equally distributed over a 24-hour time period. Emissions are then transported in the model for three days. This poster describes the modeling system and reports on calibration and validation methods as well as results for the 2007 PM concentration time series. We evaluate the effectiveness of HYSPLIT’s fully 3-D particle plume scheme and its combined Gaussian-horizontal puff and vertical particle plume scheme. The primary source of calibration data are atmospheric monitoring stations located in the San Diego region. Also detailed are effects of fuel model spatial resolution (30-meter and 1-kilometer fuel beds modeled as separate CONSUME/HYSPLIT scenarios) and influential CONSUME parameters on modeled HYSPLIT concentrations at receptor locations. In addition, potential methods to identify the PM “signal” associated with fire v. anthropogenic emissions are discussed. These methods involve time series comparisons of modeled and in situ PM data in association with HYSPLIT-modeled anthropogenic PM source inventories. PM concentrations estimates from this coupled transport system will be used in a larger project assessing acute respiratory health impacts of fire-emitted pollutants in San Diego County.

  12. A Tidally Averaged Sediment-Transport Model for San Francisco Bay, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lionberger, Megan A.; Schoellhamer, David H.

    2009-01-01

    A tidally averaged sediment-transport model of San Francisco Bay was incorporated into a tidally averaged salinity box model previously developed and calibrated using salinity, a conservative tracer (Uncles and Peterson, 1995; Knowles, 1996). The Bay is represented in the model by 50 segments composed of two layers: one representing the channel (>5-meter depth) and the other the shallows (0- to 5-meter depth). Calculations are made using a daily time step and simulations can be made on the decadal time scale. The sediment-transport model includes an erosion-deposition algorithm, a bed-sediment algorithm, and sediment boundary conditions. Erosion and deposition of bed sediments are calculated explicitly, and suspended sediment is transported by implicitly solving the advection-dispersion equation. The bed-sediment model simulates the increase in bed strength with depth, owing to consolidation of fine sediments that make up San Francisco Bay mud. The model is calibrated to either net sedimentation calculated from bathymetric-change data or measured suspended-sediment concentration. Specified boundary conditions are the tributary fluxes of suspended sediment and suspended-sediment concentration in the Pacific Ocean. Results of model calibration and validation show that the model simulates the trends in suspended-sediment concentration associated with tidal fluctuations, residual velocity, and wind stress well, although the spring neap tidal suspended-sediment concentration variability was consistently underestimated. Model validation also showed poor simulation of seasonal sediment pulses from the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta at Point San Pablo because the pulses enter the Bay over only a few days and the fate of the pulses is determined by intra-tidal deposition and resuspension that are not included in this tidally averaged model. The model was calibrated to net-basin sedimentation to calculate budgets of sediment and sediment-associated contaminants. While

  13. Modeling a thick unsaturated zone at San Gorgonio Pass, California: lessons learned after five years of artificial recharge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flint, Alan L.; Ellett, Kevin M.; Christensen, Allen H.; Martin, Peter

    2012-01-01

    The information flow among the tasks of framework assessment, numerical modeling, model forecasting and hind casting, and system-performance monitoring is illustrated. Results provide an understanding of artificial recharge in high-altitude desert settings where large vertical distances may separate application ponds from their target aquifers. Approximately 3.8 million cubic meters of surface water was applied to spreading ponds from 2003–2007 to artificially recharge the underlying aquifer through a 200-meter thick unsaturated zone in the San Gorgonio Pass area in southern California. A study was conducted between 1997 and 2003, and a numerical model was developed to help determine the suitability of the site for artificial recharge. Ongoing monitoring results indicated that the existing model needed to be modified and recalibrated to more accurately predict artificial recharge at the site. The objective of this work was to recalibrate the model by using observation of the application rates, the rise and fall of the water level above a perching layer, and the approximate arrival time to the water table during the 5-yr monitoring period following initiation of long-term artificial recharge. Continuous monitoring of soil-matric potential, temperature, and water levels beneath the site indicated that artificial recharge reached the underlying water table between 3.75 and 4.5 yr after the initial application of the recharge water. The model was modified to allow the simulation to more adequately match the perching layer dynamics and the time of arrival at the water table. The instrumentation also showed that the lag time between changes in application of water at the surface and the response at the perching layer decreased from about 4 mo to less than 1 mo due to the wet-up of the unsaturated zone and the increase in relative permeability. The results of this study demonstrate the importance of iteratively monitoring and modeling the unsaturated zone in layered

  14. A stem cell niche dominance theorem

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shibata Darryl K

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Multilevelness is a defining characteristic of complex systems. For example, in the intestinal tissue the epithelial lining is organized into crypts that are maintained by a niche of stem cells. The behavior of the system 'as a whole' is considered to emerge from the functioning and interactions of its parts. What we are seeking here is a conceptual framework to demonstrate how the "fate" of intestinal crypts is an emergent property that inherently arises from the complex yet robust underlying biology of stem cells. Results We establish a conceptual framework in which to formalize cross-level principles in the context of tissue organization. To this end we provide a definition for stemness, which is the propensity of a cell lineage to contribute to a tissue fate. We do not consider stemness a property of a cell but link it to the process in which a cell lineage contributes towards tissue (malfunction. We furthermore show that the only logically feasible relationship between the stemness of cell lineages and the emergent fate of their tissue, which satisfies the given criteria, is one of dominance from a particular lineage. Conclusions The dominance theorem, conceived and proven in this paper, provides support for the concepts of niche succession and monoclonal conversion in intestinal crypts as bottom-up relations, while crypt fission is postulated to be a top-down principle.

  15. Symbiosis catalyses niche expansion and diversification.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joy, Jeffrey B

    2013-04-01

    Interactions between species are important catalysts of the evolutionary processes that generate the remarkable diversity of life. Symbioses, conspicuous and inherently interesting forms of species interaction, are pervasive throughout the tree of life. However, nearly all studies of the impact of species interactions on diversification have concentrated on competition and predation leaving unclear the importance of symbiotic interaction. Here, I show that, as predicted by evolutionary theories of symbiosis and diversification, multiple origins of a key innovation, symbiosis between gall-inducing insects and fungi, catalysed both expansion in resource use (niche expansion) and diversification. Symbiotic lineages have undergone a more than sevenfold expansion in the range of host-plant taxa they use relative to lineages without such fungal symbionts, as defined by the genetic distance between host plants. Furthermore, symbiotic gall-inducing insects are more than 17 times as diverse as their non-symbiotic relatives. These results demonstrate that the evolution of symbiotic interaction leads to niche expansion, which in turn catalyses diversification. PMID:23390106

  16. Optimization of Rolling Force Distribution Based on Niche Genetic Algorithm in Continuous Hot Rolling Mills

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LIU Zi-ping; LI Li-xin

    2013-01-01

    Based on the niche genetic algorithm, the intelligent and optimizing model for the rolling force distribution in hot strip mills was put forward. The research showed that the model had many advantages such as fast searching speed, high calculating pre-cision and suiting for on-line calculation. A good strip shape could be achieved by using the model and it is appropriate and practica-ble for rolling producing.

  17. Water Hyacinth Identification Using CART Modeling With Hyperspectral Data in the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta of California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khanna, S.; Hestir, E. L.; Santos, M. J.; Greenberg, J. A.; Ustin, S. L.

    2007-12-01

    Water hyacinth (Eichhornia crassipes) is an invasive aquatic weed that is causing severe economic and ecological impacts in the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta (California, USA). Monitoring its distribution using remote sensing is the crucial first step in modeling its predicted spread and implementing control and eradication efforts. However, accurately mapping this species is confounded by its several phenological forms, namely a healthy vegetative canopy, flowering canopy with dense conspicuous terminal flowers above the foliage, and floating dead and senescent forms. The full range of these phenologies may be simultaneously present at any time, given the heterogeneity of environmental and ecological conditions in the Delta. There is greater spectral variation within water hyacinth than between any of the co-occurring species (pennywort and water primrose), so classification approaches must take these different phenological stages into consideration. We present an approach to differentiating water hyacinth from co-occurring species based on knowledge of relevant variation in leaf chlorophyll, floral pigments, foliage water content, and variation in leaf structure using a classification and regression tree (CART) applied to airborne hyperspectral remote sensing imagery.

  18. GIS SUPPORTED HEDONIC MODEL FOR ASSESSING PROPERTY VALUE IN WEST OAKLAND, CALIFORNIA

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2006-01-01

    A hedonic linear regression model is constructed in this paper to estimate property value. In our model, the property value (sales price) is a function of several selected variables such as the property characteristics, social neighborhoods, level of neighborhood environmental contaminations, level of neighborhood crimes, and locational accessibility to jobs or services. Definitions and calculation of these variables are approached by using Geographic Information System tools. For improving estimation, gravity model is employed to measure both levels of neighborhood toxic sites and crimes; and a time-based method is used to measure the locational accessibility rather than simple straight-line distance measurement. This study discovers that the relationship between house value and its nearby highway is nonlinear. The methodology could help policy makers assess the external effects ora property. Our model also could be used potentially to identify the current and historic trends of development caused by neighborhood or environments change in the study area.

  19. A 30 meter Digital Elevation Model (DEM) of the San Gorgonio Pass area, Riverside County, California.

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) are digital records of terrain elevations at regularly spaced intervals. The interval between elevations of 7.5 minute DEMs is...

  20. Introducing the Clean-Tech Adoption Model: A California Case Study

    OpenAIRE

    2012-01-01

    Abstract. The Clean-Tech Adoption Model (C-TAM) explains the adoption process of clean technology. Based on the Unified Theory of Acceptance and Usage of Technology (UTAUT) combined with qualitative research and empirical data gathering, the model predicts adoption based on the perceived quality, effort, transition, experience and knowledge. Social media introduces a moderating effect, thus legitimizing its effectiveness as a marketing instrument on accelerating the adoption of clean technolo...