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Sample records for california niche modeling

  1. Phylogeography and Ecological Niche Modeling of the Desert Iguana (Dipsosaurus dorsalis, Baird & Girard 1852) in the Baja California Peninsula.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valdivia-Carrillo, Tania; García-De León, Francisco J; Blázquez, Ma Carmen; Gutiérrez-Flores, Carina; González Zamorano, Patricia

    2017-09-01

    Understanding the factors that explain the patterns of genetic structure or phylogeographic breaks at an intraspecific level is key to inferring the mechanisms of population differentiation in its early stages. These topics have been well studied in the Baja California region, with vicariance and the dispersal ability of individuals being the prevailing hypothesis for phylogeographic breaks. In this study, we evaluated the phylogeographic patterns in the desert iguana (Dipsosaurus dorsalis), a species with a recent history in the region and spatial variation in life history traits. We analyzed a total of 307 individuals collected throughout 19 localities across the Baja California Peninsula with 15 microsatellite DNA markers. Our data reveal the existence of 3 geographically discrete genetic populations with moderate gene flow and an isolation-by-distance pattern presumably produced by the occurrence of a refugium in the Cape region during the Pleistocene Last Glacial Maximum. Bayesian methods and ecological niche modeling were used to assess the relationship between population genetic structure and present and past climatic preferences of the desert iguana. We found that the present climatic heterogeneity of the Baja California Peninsula has a marked influence on the population genetic structure of the species, suggesting that there are alternative explanations besides vicariance. The information obtained in this study provides data allowing a better understanding of how historical population processes in the Baja California Peninsula can be understood from an ecological perspective. © The American Genetic Association 2017. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  2. Advances and Limitations of Disease Biogeography Using Ecological Niche Modeling.

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    Escobar, Luis E; Craft, Meggan E

    2016-01-01

    Mapping disease transmission risk is crucial in public and animal health for evidence based decision-making. Ecology and epidemiology are highly related disciplines that may contribute to improvements in mapping disease, which can be used to answer health related questions. Ecological niche modeling is increasingly used for understanding the biogeography of diseases in plants, animals, and humans. However, epidemiological applications of niche modeling approaches for disease mapping can fail to generate robust study designs, producing incomplete or incorrect inferences. This manuscript is an overview of the history and conceptual bases behind ecological niche modeling, specifically as applied to epidemiology and public health; it does not pretend to be an exhaustive and detailed description of ecological niche modeling literature and methods. Instead, this review includes selected state-of-the-science approaches and tools, providing a short guide to designing studies incorporating information on the type and quality of the input data (i.e., occurrences and environmental variables), identification and justification of the extent of the study area, and encourages users to explore and test diverse algorithms for more informed conclusions. We provide a friendly introduction to the field of disease biogeography presenting an updated guide for researchers looking to use ecological niche modeling for disease mapping. We anticipate that ecological niche modeling will soon be a critical tool for epidemiologists aiming to map disease transmission risk, forecast disease distribution under climate change scenarios, and identify landscape factors triggering outbreaks.

  3. Does niche divergence accompany allopatric divergence in Aphelocoma jays as predicted under ecological speciation? Insights from tests with niche models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCormack, John E; Zellmer, Amanda J; Knowles, L Lacey

    2010-05-01

    The role of ecology in the origin of species has been the subject of long-standing interest to evolutionary biologists. New sources of spatially explicit ecological data allow for large-scale tests of whether speciation is associated with niche divergence or whether closely related species tend to be similar ecologically (niche conservatism). Because of the confounding effects of spatial autocorrelation of environmental variables, we generate null expectations for niche divergence for both an ecological-niche modeling and a multivariate approach to address the question: do allopatrically distributed taxa occupy similar niches? In a classic system for the study of niche evolution--the Aphelocoma jays--we show that there is little evidence for niche divergence among Mexican Jay (A. ultramarina) lineages in the process of speciation, contrary to previous results. In contrast, Aphelocoma species that exist in partial sympatry in some regions show evidence for niche divergence. Our approach is widely applicable to the many cases of allopatric lineages in the beginning stages of speciation. These results do not support an ecological speciation model for Mexican Jay lineages because, in most cases, the allopatric environments they occupy are not significantly more divergent than expected under a null model.

  4. Ecological Niche Modelling of Bank Voles in Western Europe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sara Amirpour Haredasht

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The bank vole (Myodes glareolus is the natural host of Puumala virus (PUUV in vast areas of Europe. PUUV is one of the hantaviruses which are transmitted to humans by infected rodents. PUUV causes a general mild form of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS called nephropathia epidemica (NE. Vector-borne and zoonotic diseases generally display clear spatial patterns due to different space-dependent factors. Land cover influences disease transmission by controlling both the spatial distribution of vectors or hosts, as well as by facilitating the human contact with them. In this study the use of ecological niche modelling (ENM for predicting the geographical distribution of bank vole population on the basis of spatial climate information is tested. The Genetic Algorithm for Rule-set Prediction (GARP is used to model the ecological niche of bank voles in Western Europe. The meteorological data, land cover types and geo-referenced points representing the locations of the bank voles (latitude/longitude in the study area are used as the primary model input value. The predictive accuracy of the bank vole ecologic niche model was significant (training accuracy of 86%. The output of the GARP models based on the 50% subsets of points used for testing the model showed an accuracy of 75%. Compared with random models, the probability of such high predictivity was low (χ2 tests, p < 10−6. As such, the GARP models were predictive and the used ecologic niche model indeed indicates the ecologic requirements of bank voles. This approach successfully identified the areas of infection risk across the study area. The result suggests that the niche modelling approach can be implemented in a next step towards the development of new tools for monitoring the bank vole’s population.

  5. Ecological niche modelling of bank voles in Western Europe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amirpour Haredasht, Sara; Barrios, Miguel; Farifteh, Jamshid; Maes, Piet; Clement, Jan; Verstraeten, Willem W; Tersago, Katrien; Van Ranst, Marc; Coppin, Pol; Berckmans, Daniel; Aerts, Jean-Marie

    2013-01-28

    The bank vole (Myodes glareolus) is the natural host of Puumala virus (PUUV) in vast areas of Europe. PUUV is one of the hantaviruses which are transmitted to humans by infected rodents. PUUV causes a general mild form of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) called nephropathia epidemica (NE). Vector-borne and zoonotic diseases generally display clear spatial patterns due to different space-dependent factors. Land cover influences disease transmission by controlling both the spatial distribution of vectors or hosts, as well as by facilitating the human contact with them. In this study the use of ecological niche modelling (ENM) for predicting the geographical distribution of bank vole population on the basis of spatial climate information is tested. The Genetic Algorithm for Rule-set Prediction (GARP) is used to model the ecological niche of bank voles in Western Europe. The meteorological data, land cover types and geo-referenced points representing the locations of the bank voles (latitude/longitude) in the study area are used as the primary model input value. The predictive accuracy of the bank vole ecologic niche model was significant (training accuracy of 86%). The output of the GARP models based on the 50% subsets of points used for testing the model showed an accuracy of 75%. Compared with random models, the probability of such high predictivity was low (χ(2) tests, p < 10(-6)). As such, the GARP models were predictive and the used ecologic niche model indeed indicates the ecologic requirements of bank voles. This approach successfully identified the areas of infection risk across the study area. The result suggests that the niche modelling approach can be implemented in a next step towards the development of new tools for monitoring the bank vole's population.

  6. Mechanistic species distribution modeling reveals a niche shift during invasion.

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    Chapman, Daniel S; Scalone, Romain; Štefanić, Edita; Bullock, James M

    2017-06-01

    Niche shifts of nonnative plants can occur when they colonize novel climatic conditions. However, the mechanistic basis for niche shifts during invasion is poorly understood and has rarely been captured within species distribution models. We quantified the consequence of between-population variation in phenology for invasion of common ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia L.) across Europe. Ragweed is of serious concern because of its harmful effects as a crop weed and because of its impact on public health as a major aeroallergen. We developed a forward mechanistic species distribution model based on responses of ragweed development rates to temperature and photoperiod. The model was parameterized and validated from the literature and by reanalyzing data from a reciprocal common garden experiment in which native and invasive populations were grown within and beyond the current invaded range. It could therefore accommodate between-population variation in the physiological requirements for flowering, and predict the potentially invaded ranges of individual populations. Northern-origin populations that were established outside the generally accepted climate envelope of the species had lower thermal requirements for bud development, suggesting local adaptation of phenology had occurred during the invasion. The model predicts that this will extend the potentially invaded range northward and increase the average suitability across Europe by 90% in the current climate and 20% in the future climate. Therefore, trait variation observed at the population scale can trigger a climatic niche shift at the biogeographic scale. For ragweed, earlier flowering phenology in established northern populations could allow the species to spread beyond its current invasive range, substantially increasing its risk to agriculture and public health. Mechanistic species distribution models offer the possibility to represent niche shifts by varying the traits and niche responses of individual

  7. Introducing MERGANSER: A Flexible Framework for Ecological Niche Modeling

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    Klawonn, M.; Dow, E. M.

    2015-12-01

    Ecological Niche Modeling (ENM) is a collection of techniques to find a "fundamental niche", the range of environmental conditions suitable for a species' survival in the absence of inter-species interactions, given a set of environmental parameters. Traditional approaches to ENM face a number of obstacles including limited data accessibility, data management problems, computational costs, interface usability, and model validation. The MERGANSER system, which stands for Modeling Ecological Residency Given A Normalized Set of Environmental Records, addresses these issues through powerful data persistence and flexible data access, coupled with a clear presentation of results and fine-tuned control over model parameters. MERGANSER leverages data measuring 72 weather related phenomena, land cover, soil type, population, species occurrence, general species information, and elevation, totaling over 1.5 TB of data. To the best of the authors' knowledge, MERGANSER uses higher-resolution spatial data sets than previously published models. Since MERGANSER stores data in an instance of Apache SOLR, layers generated in support of niche models are accessible to users via simplified Apache Lucene queries. This is made even simpler via an HTTP front end that generates Lucene queries automatically. Specifically, a user need only enter the name of a place and a species to run a model. Using this approach to synthesizing model layers, the MERGANSER system has successfully reproduced previously published niche model results with a simplified user experience. Input layers for the model are generated dynamically using OpenStreetMap and SOLR's spatial search functionality. Models are then run using either user-specified or automatically determined parameters after normalizing them into a common grid. Finally, results are visualized in the web interface, which allows for quick validation. Model results and all surrounding metadata are also accessible to the user for further study.

  8. Place prioritization for biodiversity content using species ecological niche modeling

    OpenAIRE

    Víctor Sánchez-Cordero; Verónica Cirelli; Mariana Munguial; Sahotra Sarkar

    2005-01-01

    Place prioritization for biodiversity representation is essential for conservation planning, particularly in megadiverse countries where high deforestation threatens biodiversity. Given the collecting biases and uneven sampling of biological inventories, there is a need to develop robust models of species’ distributions. By modeling species’ ecological niches using point occurrence data and digitized environmental feature maps, we can predict potential and extant distributions of species in u...

  9. The inverse niche model for food webs with parasites

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    Warren, Christopher P.; Pascual, Mercedes; Lafferty, Kevin D.; Kuris, Armand M.

    2010-01-01

    Although parasites represent an important component of ecosystems, few field and theoretical studies have addressed the structure of parasites in food webs. We evaluate the structure of parasitic links in an extensive salt marsh food web, with a new model distinguishing parasitic links from non-parasitic links among free-living species. The proposed model is an extension of the niche model for food web structure, motivated by the potential role of size (and related metabolic rates) in structuring food webs. The proposed extension captures several properties observed in the data, including patterns of clustering and nestedness, better than does a random model. By relaxing specific assumptions, we demonstrate that two essential elements of the proposed model are the similarity of a parasite's hosts and the increasing degree of parasite specialization, along a one-dimensional niche axis. Thus, inverting one of the basic rules of the original model, the one determining consumers' generality appears critical. Our results support the role of size as one of the organizing principles underlying niche space and food web topology. They also strengthen the evidence for the non-random structure of parasitic links in food webs and open the door to addressing questions concerning the consequences and origins of this structure.

  10. Modelling the meteorological forest fire niche in heterogeneous pyrologic conditions.

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    De Angelis, Antonella; Ricotta, Carlo; Conedera, Marco; Pezzatti, Gianni Boris

    2015-01-01

    Fire regimes are strongly related to weather conditions that directly and indirectly influence fire ignition and propagation. Identifying the most important meteorological fire drivers is thus fundamental for daily fire risk forecasting. In this context, several fire weather indices have been developed focussing mainly on fire-related local weather conditions and fuel characteristics. The specificity of the conditions for which fire danger indices are developed makes its direct transfer and applicability problematic in different areas or with other fuel types. In this paper we used the low-to-intermediate fire-prone region of Canton Ticino as a case study to develop a new daily fire danger index by implementing a niche modelling approach (Maxent). In order to identify the most suitable weather conditions for fires, different combinations of input variables were tested (meteorological variables, existing fire danger indices or a combination of both). Our findings demonstrate that such combinations of input variables increase the predictive power of the resulting index and surprisingly even using meteorological variables only allows similar or better performances than using the complex Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI). Furthermore, the niche modelling approach based on Maxent resulted in slightly improved model performance and in a reduced number of selected variables with respect to the classical logistic approach. Factors influencing final model robustness were the number of fire events considered and the specificity of the meteorological conditions leading to fire ignition.

  11. Ecologic Niche Modeling of Blastomyces dermatitidis in Wisconsin

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    Reed, Kurt D.; Meece, Jennifer K.; Archer, John R.; Peterson, A. Townsend

    2008-01-01

    Background Blastomycosis is a potentially fatal mycosis that is acquired by inhaling infectious spores of Blastomyces dermatitidis present in the environment. The ecology of this pathogen is poorly understood, in part because it has been extremely difficult to identify the niche(s) it occupies based on culture isolation of the organism from environmental samples. Methodology/Principal Findings We investigated the ecology of blastomycosis by performing maximum entropy modeling of exposure sites from 156 cases of human and canine blastomycosis to provide a regional-scale perspective of the geographic and ecologic distribution of B. dermatitidis in Wisconsin. Based on analysis with climatic, topographic, surface reflectance and other environmental variables, we predicted that ecologic conditions favorable for maintaining the fungus in nature occur predominantly within northern counties and counties along the western shoreline of Lake Michigan. Areas of highest predicted occurrence were often in proximity to waterways, especially in northcentral Wisconsin, where incidence of infection is highest. Ecologic conditions suitable for B. dermatitidis are present in urban and rural environments, and may differ at the extremes of distribution of the species in the state. Conclusions/Significance Our results provide a framework for a more informed search for specific environmental factors modulating B. dermatitidis occurrence and transmission and will be useful for improving public health awareness of relative exposure risks. PMID:18446224

  12. Framework for analyzing ecological trait-based models in multidimensional niche spaces

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    Biancalani, Tommaso; DeVille, Lee; Goldenfeld, Nigel

    2015-05-01

    We develop a theoretical framework for analyzing ecological models with a multidimensional niche space. Our approach relies on the fact that ecological niches are described by sequences of symbols, which allows us to include multiple phenotypic traits. Ecological drivers, such as competitive exclusion, are modeled by introducing the Hamming distance between two sequences. We show that a suitable transform diagonalizes the community interaction matrix of these models, making it possible to predict the conditions for niche differentiation and, close to the instability onset, the asymptotically long time population distributions of niches. We exemplify our method using the Lotka-Volterra equations with an exponential competition kernel.

  13. The influence of social niche on cultural niche construction: modelling changes in belief about marriage form in Taiwan

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    Lipatov, Mikhail; Brown, Melissa J.; Feldman, Marcus W.

    2011-01-01

    With introduction of social niche effects into a model of cultural change, the frequency of a practice cannot predict the frequency of its underlying belief. The combination of a general model with empirical data from a specific case illustrates the importance of collaboration between modellers and field researchers, and identifies the type of quantitative data necessary for analysing case studies. Demographic data from colonial-period household registers in Taiwan document a shift in marriage form within 40 years, from a mixture of uxorilocal marriages and virilocal marriages to the latter's dominance. Ethnographic data indicate marriage-related beliefs, costs, ethnic effects and colonial policies as well as the importance of horizontal cultural transmission. We present a formal model for the effects of moral beliefs about marriage and a population economic index on the decline of uxorilocal marriage. We integrate empirical marriage rates and an estimated economic index to produce five projections of the historical frequencies of one belief. These projections demonstrate how economic development may affect a cultural niche. They also indicate the need for future research on the relationship between wealth and cultural variability, the motivational force of cultural versus social factors, and the process of cultural niche construction. PMID:21320903

  14. Divergence is not enough: the use of ecological niche models for the validation of taxon boundaries.

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    Dagnino, D; Minuto, L; Casazza, G

    2017-11-01

    Delimiting taxon boundaries is crucial for any evolutionary research and conservation regulation. In order to avoid mistaken description of species, the approach of integrative taxonomy recommends considering multidisciplinary lines of evidence, including ecology. Unfortunately, ecological data are often difficult to quantify objectively. Here we test and discuss the potential use of ecological niche models for validating taxon boundaries, using three pairs of closely related plant taxa endemic to the south-western Alps as a case study. We also discuss the application of ecological niche models for species delimitation and the implementation of different approaches. Niche overlap, niche equivalency and niche similarity were assessed both in multidimensional environmental space and in geographic space to look for differences in the niche of three pairs of closely related plant taxa. We detected a high degree of niche differentiation between taxa although this result seems not due to differences in habitat selection. The different statistical tests gave contrasting outcomes between environmental and geographic spaces. According to our results, niche divergence does not seem to support taxon boundaries at species level, but may have had important consequences for local adaptation and in generating phenotypic diversity at intraspecific level. Environmental space analysis should be preferred to geographic space as it provides more clear results. Even if the different analyses widely disagree in their conclusions about taxon boundaries, our study suggests that ecological niche models may help taxonomists to reach a decision. © 2017 German Botanical Society and The Royal Botanical Society of the Netherlands.

  15. Environmental niche models for riverine desert fishes and their similarity according to phylogeny and functionality

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    Whitney, James E.; Whittier, Joanna B.; Paukert, Craig P.

    2017-01-01

    Environmental filtering and competitive exclusion are hypotheses frequently invoked in explaining species' environmental niches (i.e., geographic distributions). A key assumption in both hypotheses is that the functional niche (i.e., species traits) governs the environmental niche, but few studies have rigorously evaluated this assumption. Furthermore, phylogeny could be associated with these hypotheses if it is predictive of functional niche similarity via phylogenetic signal or convergent evolution, or of environmental niche similarity through phylogenetic attraction or repulsion. The objectives of this study were to investigate relationships between environmental niches, functional niches, and phylogenies of fishes of the Upper (UCRB) and Lower (LCRB) Colorado River Basins of southwestern North America. We predicted that functionally similar species would have similar environmental niches (i.e., environmental filtering) and that closely related species would be functionally similar (i.e., phylogenetic signal) and possess similar environmental niches (i.e., phylogenetic attraction). Environmental niches were quantified using environmental niche modeling, and functional similarity was determined using functional trait data. Nonnatives in the UCRB provided the only support for environmental filtering, which resulted from several warmwater nonnatives having dam number as a common predictor of their distributions, whereas several cool- and coldwater nonnatives shared mean annual air temperature as an important distributional predictor. Phylogenetic signal was supported for both natives and nonnatives in both basins. Lastly, phylogenetic attraction was only supported for native fishes in the LCRB and for nonnative fishes in the UCRB. Our results indicated that functional similarity was heavily influenced by evolutionary history, but that phylogenetic relationships and functional traits may not always predict the environmental distribution of species. However, the

  16. Improved Predictions of the Geographic Distribution of Invasive Plants Using Climatic Niche Models

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    Ramírez-Albores, Jorge E.; Bustamante, Ramiro O.

    2016-01-01

    Climatic niche models for invasive plants are usually constructed with occurrence records taken from literature and collections. Because these data neither discriminate among life-cycle stages of plants (adult or juvenile) nor the origin of individuals (naturally established or man-planted), the resulting models may mispredict the distribution ranges of these species. We propose that more accurate predictions could be obtained by modelling climatic niches with data of naturally established individuals, particularly with occurrence records of juvenile plants because this would restrict the predictions of models to those sites where climatic conditions allow the recruitment of the species. To test this proposal, we focused on the Peruvian peppertree (Schinus molle), a South American species that has largely invaded Mexico. Three climatic niche models were constructed for this species using high-resolution dataset gathered in the field. The first model included all occurrence records, irrespective of the life-cycle stage or origin of peppertrees (generalized niche model). The second model only included occurrence records of naturally established mature individuals (adult niche model), while the third model was constructed with occurrence records of naturally established juvenile plants (regeneration niche model). When models were compared, the generalized climatic niche model predicted the presence of peppertrees in sites located farther beyond the climatic thresholds that naturally established individuals can tolerate, suggesting that human activities influence the distribution of this invasive species. The adult and regeneration climatic niche models concurred in their predictions about the distribution of peppertrees, suggesting that naturally established adult trees only occur in sites where climatic conditions allow the recruitment of juvenile stages. These results support the proposal that climatic niches of invasive plants should be modelled with data of

  17. Using ecological niche modeling to determine avian richness hotspots

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Mirzaei

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Understanding distributions of wildlife species is a key step towards identifying biodiversity hotspots and designing effective conservation strategies. In this paper, the spatial pattern of diversity of birds in Golestan Province, Iran was estimated. Ecological niche modeling was used to determine distributions of 144 bird species across the province using a maximum entropy algorithm. Richness maps across all birds, and separately for rare and threatened species, were prepared as approximations to hotspots. Results showed close similarity between hotspots for all birds and those for rare birds; hotspots were concentrated in the southern and especially the southwestern parts of the province. Hotspots for threatened birds tended more to the central and especially the western parts of the province, which include coastal habitats. Based on three criteria, it is clear that the western part is the most important area of the province in terms of bird Faunas. Despite some shortcomings, hotspot analysis for birds could be applied to guide conservation efforts and provide useful tool towards efficient conservation action.

  18. To predict the niche, model colonization and extinction

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    Yackulic, Charles B.; Nichols, James D.; Reid, Janice; Der, Ricky

    2015-01-01

    Ecologists frequently try to predict the future geographic distributions of species. Most studies assume that the current distribution of a species reflects its environmental requirements (i.e., the species' niche). However, the current distributions of many species are unlikely to be at equilibrium with the current distribution of environmental conditions, both because of ongoing invasions and because the distribution of suitable environmental conditions is always changing. This mismatch between the equilibrium assumptions inherent in many analyses and the disequilibrium conditions in the real world leads to inaccurate predictions of species' geographic distributions and suggests the need for theory and analytical tools that avoid equilibrium assumptions. Here, we develop a general theory of environmental associations during periods of transient dynamics. We show that time-invariant relationships between environmental conditions and rates of local colonization and extinction can produce substantial temporal variation in occupancy–environment relationships. We then estimate occupancy–environment relationships during three avian invasions. Changes in occupancy–environment relationships over time differ among species but are predicted by dynamic occupancy models. Since estimates of the occupancy–environment relationships themselves are frequently poor predictors of future occupancy patterns, research should increasingly focus on characterizing how rates of local colonization and extinction vary with environmental conditions.

  19. OMWS: A Web Service Interface for Ecological Niche Modelling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Renato De Giovanni

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Ecological niche modelling (ENM experiments often involve a high number of tasks to be performed. Such tasks may consume a significant amount of computing resources and take a long time to complete, especially when using personal computers. OMWS is a Web service interface that allows more powerful computing back-ends to be remotely exploited by other applications to carry out ENM tasks. Its latest version includes a new operation that can be used to specify complex workflows in a single request, adding the possibility of using workflow management systems on parallel computing back-end. In this paper we describe the OMWS protocol and compare its most recent version with the previous one by running the same ENM experiment using two functionally equivalent clients, each designed for one of the OMWS interface versions. Different back-end configurations were used to investigate how the performance scales for each protocol version when more processing power is made available. Results show that the new version outperforms (in a factor of 2 the previous one when more computing resources are used.

  20. To predict the niche, model colonization and extinction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charles B. Yackulic; James D. Nichols; Janice Reid; Ricky Der

    2015-01-01

    Ecologists frequently try to predict the future geographic distributions of species. Most studies assume that the current distribution of a species reflects its environmental requirements (i.e., the species’ niche). However, the current distributions of many species are unlikely to be at equilibrium with the current distribution of environmental conditions, both...

  1. Range bagging: a new method for ecological niche modelling from presence-only data.

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    Drake, John M

    2015-06-06

    The ecological niche is the set of environments in which a population of a species can persist without introduction of individuals from other locations. A good mathematical or computational representation of the niche is a prerequisite to addressing many questions in ecology, biogeography, evolutionary biology and conservation. A particularly challenging question for ecological niche modelling is the problem of presence-only modelling. That is, can an ecological niche be identified from records drawn only from the set of niche environments without records from non-niche environments for comparison? Here, I introduce a new method for ecological niche modelling from presence-only data called range bagging. Range bagging draws on the concept of a species' environmental range, but was inspired by the empirical performance of ensemble learning algorithms in other areas of ecological research. This paper extends the concept of environmental range to multiple dimensions and shows that range bagging is computationally feasible even when the number of environmental dimensions is large. The target of the range bagging base learner is an environmental tolerance of the species in a projection of its niche and is therefore an ecologically interpretable property of a species' biological requirements. The computational complexity of range bagging is linear in the number of examples, which compares favourably with the main alternative, Qhull. In conclusion, range bagging appears to be a reasonable choice for niche modelling in applications in which a presence-only method is desired and may provide a solution to problems in other disciplines where one-class classification is required, such as outlier detection and concept learning.

  2. Place prioritization for biodiversity content using species ecological niche modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Víctor Sánchez-Cordero

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Place prioritization for biodiversity representation is essential for conservation planning, particularly in megadiverse countries where high deforestation threatens biodiversity. Given the collecting biases and uneven sampling of biological inventories, there is a need to develop robust models of species’ distributions. By modeling species’ ecological niches using point occurrence data and digitized environmental feature maps, we can predict potential and extant distributions of species in untransformed landscapes, as well as in those transformed by vegetation change (including deforestation. Such distributional predictions provide a framework for use of species as biodiversity surrogates in place prioritization procedures such as those based on rarity and complementarity. Beyond biodiversity conservation, these predictions can also be used for place prioritization for ecological restoration under current conditions and under future scenarios of habitat change (e.g., deforestation scenarios. To illustrate these points, we (1 predict distributions under current and future deforestation scenarios for the Mexican endemic mammal Dipodomys phillipsii, and show how areas for restoration may be selected; and (2 propose conservation areas by combining nonvolant mammal distributional predictions as biodiversity surrogates with place prioritization procedures, to connect decreed natural protected areas in a region holding exceptional biodiversity: the Transvolcanic Belt in central Mexico. La selección de áreas prioritarias de conservación es fundamental en la planeación sistemática de la conservación, particularmente en países de mega-diversidad, en donde la alta deforestación es una de las amenazas a la biodiversidad. Debido a los sesgos taxonómicos y geográficos de colecta de los inventarios biológicos, es indispensable generar modelos robustos de distribución de especies. Al modelar el nicho ecológico de especies usando localidades de

  3. Coastal California's Fog as a Unique Habitable Niche: Design for Autonomous Sampling and Preliminary Aerobiological Characterization

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    Gentry, Diana; Cynthia Ouandji; Arismendi, Dillon; Guarro, Marcello; Demachkie, Isabella; Crosbie, Ewan; Dadashazar, Hossein; MacDonald, Alex B.; Wang, Zhen; Sorooshian, Armin; hide

    2017-01-01

    Just as on the land or in the ocean, atmospheric regions may be more or less hospitable to life. The aerobiosphere, or collection of living things in Earth's atmosphere, is poorly understood due to the small number and ad hoc nature of samples studied. However, we know viable airborne microbes play important roles, such as providing cloud condensation nuclei. Knowing the distribution of such microorganisms and how their activity can alter water, carbon, and other geochemical cycles is key to developing criteria for planetary habitability, particularly for potential habitats with wet atmospheres but little stable surface water. Coastal California has regular, dense fog known to play a major transport role in the local ecosystem. In addition to the significant local (1 km) geographical variation in typical fog, previous studies have found that changes in height above surface of as little as a few meters can yield significant differences in typical concentrations, populations and residence times. No single current sampling platform (ground-based impactors, towers, balloons, aircraft) is capable of accessing all of these regions of interest.A novel passive fog and cloud water sampler, consisting of a lightweight passive impactor suspended from autonomous aerial vehicles (UAVs), is being developed to allow 4D point sampling within a single fog bank, allowing closer study of small-scale (100 m) system dynamics. Fog and cloud droplet water samples from low-altitude aircraft flights in nearby coastal waters were collected and assayed to estimate the required sample volumes, flight times, and sensitivity thresholds of the system under design.125 cloud water samples were collected from 16 flights of the Center for Interdisciplinary Remotely Piloted Aircraft Studies (CIRPAS) instrumented Twin Otter, equipped with a sampling tube collector, occurring between 18 July and 12 August 2016 below 1 km altitude off the central coast. The collector was flushed first with 70 ethanol

  4. Insights from ecological niche modeling on the taxonomic distinction and niche differentiation between the black-spotted and red-spotted tokay geckoes (Gekko gecko).

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    Zhang, Yueyun; Chen, Chongtao; Li, Li; Zhao, Chengjian; Chen, Weicai; Huang, Yong

    2014-09-01

    The black-spotted tokay and the red-spotted tokay are morphologically distinct and have largely allopatric distributions. The black-spotted tokay is characterized by a small body size and dark skin with sundry spots, while the red-spotted tokay has a relatively large body size and red spots. Based on morphological, karyotypic, genetic, and distribution differences, recent studies suggested their species status; however, their classifications remain controversial, and additional data such as ecological niches are necessary to establish firm hypotheses regarding their taxonomic status. We reconstructed their ecological niches models using climatic and geographic data. We then performed niche similarity tests (niche identity and background tests) and point-based analyses to explore whether ecological differentiation has occurred, and whether such differences are sufficient to explain the maintenance of their separate segments of environmental ranges. We found that both niche models of the black- and the red-spotted tokay had a good fit and a robust performance, as indicated by the high area under the curve (AUC) values ("black" = 0.982, SD = ± 0.002, "red" = 0.966 ± 0.02). Significant ecological differentiation across the entire geographic range was found, indicating that the involvement of ecological differentiation is important for species differentiation. Divergence along the environmental axes is highly associated with climatic conditions, with isothermality being important for the "black" form, while temperature seasonality, precipitation of warmest quarter, and annual temperature range together being important for the "red" form. These factors are likely important factors in niche differentiation between the two forms, which result in morphological replacement. Overall, beside morphological and genetic differentiation information, our results contribute to additional insights into taxonomic distinction and niche differentiation between the black- and the red

  5. Intestinal Stem Cell Niche Insights Gathered from Both In Vivo and Novel In Vitro Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nikolce Gjorevski

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Intestinal stem cells are located at the base of the crypts and are surrounded by a complex structure called niche. This environment is composed mainly of epithelial cells and stroma which provides signals that govern cell maintenance, proliferation, and differentiation. Understanding how the niche regulates stem cell fate by controlling developmental signaling pathways will help us to define how stem cells choose between self-renewal and differentiation and how they maintain their undifferentiated state. Tractable in vitro assay systems, which reflect the complexity of the in vivo situation but provide higher level of control, would likely be crucial in identifying new players and mechanisms controlling stem cell function. Knowledge of the intestinal stem cell niche gathered from both in vivo and novel in vitro models may help us improve therapies for tumorigenesis and intestinal damage and make autologous intestinal transplants a feasible clinical practice.

  6. Malaria in Africa: vector species' niche models and relative risk maps.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexander Moffett

    2007-09-01

    Full Text Available A central theoretical goal of epidemiology is the construction of spatial models of disease prevalence and risk, including maps for the potential spread of infectious disease. We provide three continent-wide maps representing the relative risk of malaria in Africa based on ecological niche models of vector species and risk analysis at a spatial resolution of 1 arc-minute (9 185 275 cells of approximately 4 sq km. Using a maximum entropy method we construct niche models for 10 malaria vector species based on species occurrence records since 1980, 19 climatic variables, altitude, and land cover data (in 14 classes. For seven vectors (Anopheles coustani, A. funestus, A. melas, A. merus, A. moucheti, A. nili, and A. paludis these are the first published niche models. We predict that Central Africa has poor habitat for both A. arabiensis and A. gambiae, and that A. quadriannulatus and A. arabiensis have restricted habitats in Southern Africa as claimed by field experts in criticism of previous models. The results of the niche models are incorporated into three relative risk models which assume different ecological interactions between vector species. The "additive" model assumes no interaction; the "minimax" model assumes maximum relative risk due to any vector in a cell; and the "competitive exclusion" model assumes the relative risk that arises from the most suitable vector for a cell. All models include variable anthrophilicity of vectors and spatial variation in human population density. Relative risk maps are produced from these models. All models predict that human population density is the critical factor determining malaria risk. Our method of constructing relative risk maps is equally general. We discuss the limits of the relative risk maps reported here, and the additional data that are required for their improvement. The protocol developed here can be used for any other vector-borne disease.

  7. Integrating life stages into ecological niche models: a case study on tiger beetles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taboada, Angela; von Wehrden, Henrik; Assmann, Thorsten

    2013-01-01

    Detailed understanding of a species' natural history and environmental needs across spatial scales is a primary requisite for effective conservation planning, particularly for species with complex life cycles in which different life stages occupy different niches and respond to the environment at different scales. However, niche models applied to conservation often neglect early life stages and are mostly performed at broad spatial scales. Using the endangered heath tiger beetle (Cicindela sylvatica) as a model species, we relate presence/absence and abundance data of locally dispersing adults and sedentary larvae to abiotic and biotic variables measured in a multiscale approach within the geographic extent relevant to active conservation management. At the scale of hundreds of meters, fine-grained abiotic conditions (i.e., vegetation structure) are fundamental determinants of the occurrence of both life stages, whereas the effect of biotic factors is mostly contained in the abiotic signature. The combination of dense heath vegetation and bare ground areas is thus the first requirement for the species' preservation, provided that accessibility to the suitable habitat is ensured. At a smaller scale (centimetres), the influence of abiotic factors on larval occurrence becomes negligible, suggesting the existence of important additional variables acting within larval proximity. Sustained significant correlations between neighbouring larvae in the models provide an indication of the potential impact of neighbourhood crowding on the larval niche within a few centimetres. Since the species spends the majority of its life cycle in the larval stage, it is essential to consider the hierarchical abiotic and biotic processes affecting the larvae when designing practical conservation guidelines for the species. This underlines the necessity for a more critical evaluation of the consequences of disregarding niche variation between life stages when estimating niches and

  8. Ecological Niche Modelling of the Bacillus anthracis A1.a sub-lineage in Kazakhstan

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-01-01

    Background Bacillus anthracis, the causative agent of anthrax, is a globally distributed zoonotic pathogen that continues to be a veterinary and human health problem in Central Asia. We used a database of anthrax outbreak locations in Kazakhstan and a subset of genotyped isolates to model the geographic distribution and ecological associations of B. anthracis in Kazakhstan. The aims of the study were to test the influence of soil variables on a previous ecological niche based prediction of B. anthracis in Kazakhstan and to determine if a single sub-lineage of B. anthracis occupies a unique ecological niche. Results The addition of soil variables to the previously developed ecological niche model did not appreciably alter the limits of the predicted geographic or ecological distribution of B. anthracis in Kazakhstan. The A1.a experiment predicted the sub-lineage to be present over a larger geographic area than did the outbreak based experiment containing multiple lineages. Within the geographic area predicted to be suitable for B. anthracis by all ten best subset models, the A1.a sub-lineage was associated with a wider range of ecological tolerances than the outbreak-soil experiment. Analysis of rule types showed that logit rules predominate in the outbreak-soil experiment and range rules in the A1.a sub-lineage experiment. Random sub-setting of locality points suggests that models of B. anthracis distribution may be sensitive to sample size. Conclusions Our analysis supports careful consideration of the taxonomic resolution of data used to create ecological niche models. Further investigations into the environmental affinities of individual lineages and sub-lineages of B. anthracis will be useful in understanding the ecology of the disease at large and small scales. With model based predictions serving as approximations of disease risk, these efforts will improve the efficacy of public health interventions for anthrax prevention and control. PMID:22152056

  9. Temporal occurrence and niche preferences of Phytophthora species causing brown rot of citrus in the Central Valley of California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown rot of citrus fruits is caused by several species of Phytophthora and is currently of serious concern for the California citrus industry. Two species, P. syringae and P. hibernalis, are quarantine pathogens in China, a major export market for California citrus. To maintain trade and estimate t...

  10. Consequences of spatial autocorrelation for niche-based models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Segurado, P.; Araújo, Miguel B.; Kunin, W. E.

    2006-01-01

    1.  Spatial autocorrelation is an important source of bias in most spatial analyses. We explored the bias introduced by spatial autocorrelation on the explanatory and predictive power of species' distribution models, and make recommendations for dealing with the problem. 2.  Analyses were based o...

  11. Predicting Future Seed Sourcing of Platycladus orientalis (L. for Future Climates Using Climate Niche Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xian-Ge Hu

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Climate niche modeling has been widely used to assess the impact of climate change on forest trees at the species level. However, geographically divergent tree populations are expected to respond differently to climate change. Considering intraspecific local adaptation in modeling species responses to climate change will thus improve the credibility and usefulness of climate niche models, particularly for genetic resources management. In this study, we used five Platycladus orientalis (L. seed zones (Northwestern; Northern; Central; Southern; and Subtropical covering the entire species range in China. A climate niche model was developed and used to project the suitable climatic conditions for each of the five seed zones for current and various future climate scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways: RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5. Our results indicated that the Subtropical seed zone would show consistent reduction for all climate change scenarios. The remaining seed zones, however, would experience various degrees of expansion in suitable habitat relative to their current geographic distributions. Most of the seed zones would gain suitable habitats at their northern distribution margins and higher latitudes. Thus, we recommend adjusting the current forest management strategies to mitigate the negative impacts of climate change.

  12. Modeling the Ecological Niche of Bacillus anthracis to Map Anthrax Risk in Kyrgyzstan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blackburn, Jason K; Matakarimov, Saitbek; Kozhokeeva, Sabira; Tagaeva, Zhyldyz; Bell, Lindsay K; Kracalik, Ian T; Zhunushov, Asankadyr

    2017-03-01

    AbstractAnthrax, caused by the environmental bacterium Bacillus anthracis , is an important zoonosis nearly worldwide. In Central Asia, anthrax represents a major veterinary and public health concern. In the Republic of Kyrgyzstan, ongoing anthrax outbreaks have been reported in humans associated with handling infected livestock and contaminated animal by-products such as meat or hides. The current anthrax situation has prompted calls for improved insights into the epidemiology, ecology, and spatial distribution of the disease in Kyrgyzstan to better inform control and surveillance. Disease control for both humans and livestock relies on annual livestock vaccination ahead of outbreaks. Toward this, we used a historic database of livestock anthrax reported from 1932 to 2006 mapped at high resolution to develop an ecological niche model-based prediction of B. anthracis across Kyrgyzstan and identified spatial clusters of livestock anthrax using a cluster morphology statistic. We also defined the seasonality of outbreaks in livestock. Cattle were the most frequently reported across the time period, with the greatest number of cases in late summer months. Our niche models defined four areas as suitable to support pathogen persistence, the plateaus near Talas and Bishkek, the valleys of western Kyrgyzstan along the Fergana Valley, and the low-lying areas along the shore of Lake Isyk-Kul. These areas should be considered "at risk" for livestock anthrax and subsequent human cases. Areas defined by the niche models can be used to prioritize anthrax surveillance and inform efforts to target livestock vaccination campaigns.

  13. Geological 3D model of the investigation niche in ONKALO, Olkiluoto, southwestern Finland

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koittola, N.

    2014-07-01

    The main goal of this Master of Science Thesis was to create a geological 3D-model of the investigation niche 3 and its surroundings. The model were created for the needs of the rock mechanical back analysis. This study is a part of Posiva's regional studies for characterization of the bedrock. Totally 4 models were created: lithological model, foliation model, fracture model, and physical rock property model. Besides the modeling, there was also made a study of the migmatite structures in the niche. Used geological and geophysical methods were drill core loggings, tunnel mapping, ground penetration radar, mise-a-la-masse and drill hole geophysics. Four rock types exist at the niche area: veined gneiss, pegmatite granite, diatexitic gneiss and quartz gneiss. The lithological units were modeled primary with the drill core loggings, tunnel mapping and ground penetrating radar. The major lithological units followed the main foliation direction (south dipping). So the continuations were fairly easy to model in the walls and roof, where the data was lacking. Foliation and fractures were modeled as discs, with mid-points at the measurement points of the structure. There were two main foliation directions 164/46 and 62/39. Fractures were more scattered but three fracture sets can be separated: 156/34, 270/85 and 342/83. The first set is mainly from the drill core loggings, second and third from tunnel mapping. Used methods in foliation model were drill core loggings, tunnel mapping and drill hole geophysics. In fracture model used data was from drill core loggings, tunnel mapping, mise-a-la-masse measurements and drill core geophysic. Four anomalous zones were detected with the drill hole geophysics. Three of these zones were associated with intensely fractured zones and one was connected to exceptionally high mica content in the gneiss. Rocks of Olkiluoto are divided into gneisses and magmatic rocks in the geological mapping. Actually almost all Olkiluoto's rocks are

  14. Geological 3D model of the investigation niche in ONKALO, Olkiluoto, southwestern Finland

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Koittola, N.

    2014-07-15

    The main goal of this Master of Science Thesis was to create a geological 3D-model of the investigation niche 3 and its surroundings. The model were created for the needs of the rock mechanical back analysis. This study is a part of Posiva's regional studies for characterization of the bedrock. Totally 4 models were created: lithological model, foliation model, fracture model, and physical rock property model. Besides the modeling, there was also made a study of the migmatite structures in the niche. Used geological and geophysical methods were drill core loggings, tunnel mapping, ground penetration radar, mise-a-la-masse and drill hole geophysics. Four rock types exist at the niche area: veined gneiss, pegmatite granite, diatexitic gneiss and quartz gneiss. The lithological units were modeled primary with the drill core loggings, tunnel mapping and ground penetrating radar. The major lithological units followed the main foliation direction (south dipping). So the continuations were fairly easy to model in the walls and roof, where the data was lacking. Foliation and fractures were modeled as discs, with mid-points at the measurement points of the structure. There were two main foliation directions 164/46 and 62/39. Fractures were more scattered but three fracture sets can be separated: 156/34, 270/85 and 342/83. The first set is mainly from the drill core loggings, second and third from tunnel mapping. Used methods in foliation model were drill core loggings, tunnel mapping and drill hole geophysics. In fracture model used data was from drill core loggings, tunnel mapping, mise-a-la-masse measurements and drill core geophysic. Four anomalous zones were detected with the drill hole geophysics. Three of these zones were associated with intensely fractured zones and one was connected to exceptionally high mica content in the gneiss. Rocks of Olkiluoto are divided into gneisses and magmatic rocks in the geological mapping. Actually almost all Olkiluoto

  15. Ecological niche models reveal the importance of climate variability for the biogeography of protosteloid amoebae.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aguilar, María; Lado, Carlos

    2012-08-01

    Habitat availability and environmental preferences of species are among the most important factors in determining the success of dispersal processes and therefore in shaping the distribution of protists. We explored the differences in fundamental niches and potential distributions of an ecological guild of slime moulds-protosteloid amoebae-in the Iberian Peninsula. A large set of samples collected in a north-east to south-west transect of approximately 1000 km along the peninsula was used to test the hypothesis that, together with the existence of suitable microhabitats, climate conditions may determine the probability of survival of species. Although protosteloid amoebae share similar morphologies and life history strategies, canonical correspondence analyses showed that they have varied ecological optima, and that climate conditions have an important effect in niche differentiation. Maxent environmental niche models provided consistent predictions of the probability of presence of the species based on climate data, and they were used to generate maps of potential distribution in an 'everything is everywhere' scenario. The most important climatic factors were, in both analyses, variables that measure changes in conditions throughout the year, confirming that the alternation of fruiting bodies, cysts and amoeboid stages in the life cycles of protosteloid amoebae constitutes an advantage for surviving in a changing environment. Microhabitat affinity seems to be influenced by climatic conditions, which suggests that the micro-environment may vary at a local scale and change together with the external climate at a larger scale.

  16. Global thermal niche models of two European grasses show high invasion risks in Antarctica.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pertierra, Luis R; Aragón, Pedro; Shaw, Justine D; Bergstrom, Dana M; Terauds, Aleks; Olalla-Tárraga, Miguel Ángel

    2017-07-01

    The two non-native grasses that have established long-term populations in Antarctica (Poa pratensis and Poa annua) were studied from a global multidimensional thermal niche perspective to address the biological invasion risk to Antarctica. These two species exhibit contrasting introduction histories and reproductive strategies and represent two referential case studies of biological invasion processes. We used a multistep process with a range of species distribution modelling techniques (ecological niche factor analysis, multidimensional envelopes, distance/entropy algorithms) together with a suite of thermoclimatic variables, to characterize the potential ranges of these species. Their native bioclimatic thermal envelopes in Eurasia, together with the different naturalized populations across continents, were compared next. The potential niche of P. pratensis was wider at the cold extremes; however, P. annua life history attributes enable it to be a more successful colonizer. We observe that particularly cold summers are a key aspect of the unique Antarctic environment. In consequence, ruderals such as P. annua can quickly expand under such harsh conditions, whereas the more stress-tolerant P. pratensis endures and persist through steady growth. Compiled data on human pressure at the Antarctic Peninsula allowed us to provide site-specific biosecurity risk indicators. We conclude that several areas across the region are vulnerable to invasions from these and other similar species. This can only be visualized in species distribution models (SDMs) when accounting for founder populations that reveal nonanalogous conditions. Results reinforce the need for strict management practices to minimize introductions. Furthermore, our novel set of temperature-based bioclimatic GIS layers for ice-free terrestrial Antarctica provide a mechanism for regional and global species distribution models to be built for other potentially invasive species. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  17. Modeling Gas Dynamics in California Sea Lions

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-09-30

    W. and Fahlman, A. (2009). Could beaked whales get the bends?. Effect of diving behaviour and physiology on modelled gas exchange for three species...1 DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. Modeling Gas Dynamics in California Sea Lions Andreas...to update a current gas dynamics model with recently acquired data for respiratory compliance (P-V), and body compartment size estimates in

  18. Assessing the potential for establishment of western cherry fruit fly using ecological niche modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, Sunil; Neven, Lisa G; Yee, Wee L

    2014-06-01

    Sweet cherries, Prunus avium (L.) L., grown in the western United States are exported to many countries around the world. Some of these countries have enforced strict quarantine rules and trade restrictions owing to concerns about the potential establishment and subsequent spread of western cherry fruit fly, Rhagoletis indifferens Curran (Diptera: Tephritidae), a major quarantine pest of sweet cherry. We used 1) niche models (CLIMEX and MaxEnt) to map the climatic suitability, 2) North Carolina State University-Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service Plant Pest Forecasting System to examine chilling requirement, and 3) host distribution and availability to assess the potential for establishment of R. indifferens in areas of western North America where it currently does not exist and eight current or potential fresh sweet cherry markets: Colombia, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Taiwan, Thailand, Venezuela, and Vietnam. Results from niche models conformed well to the current distribution of R. indifferens in western North America. MaxEnt and CLIMEX models had high performance and predicted climatic suitability in some of the countries (e.g., Andean range in Colombia and Venezuela, northern and northeastern India, central Taiwan, and parts of Vietnam). However, our results showed no potential for establishment of R. indifferens in Colombia, Indonesia, Malaysia, Taiwan, Thailand, Venezuela, and Vietnam when the optimal chilling requirement to break diapause (minimum temperature policy makers.

  19. Modeling of Iranian Cheetah Habitat using Ecological Niche Factor Analysis (Case Study: Dare Anjir Wildlife Refuge

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Zamani

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Evaluation of habitat sustainability indexes is essential in wildlife management and conservation of rare species. Suitable habitats are required in wildlife managements and conservation also, they increase reproduction and survival rate of species. In this study in order to mapping habitat sustainability and recognizing habitat requirements of Iranian Cheetah (Acinonyx jubatus venaticus, field data from Dare Anjir  wildlife refuge were collected since autumn 2009 until summer 2011. Ecological Niche Factor Analysis approach has been used to develop habitat suitability model. In this method primary maps of  habitat variables including elevation, slope, aspect, vegetation cover, distance from water sources and environmental monitoring stations have been produced by Idrisi and Biomapper software and imported in Biomapper. The output scores obtained from the analysis showed that Iranian cheetah tends to mountain areas where has more topographical features for camouflage in order to hunting, and northern aspects which have more humidity, denser vegetation cover and more preys . Our result showed that the Iranian cheetah has medium niche width and prefer marginal habitats.

  20. Modeling the ecologic niche of plague in sylvan and domestic animal hosts to delineate sources of human exposure in the western United States

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael Walsh

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Plague has been established in the western United States (US since 1900 following the West Coast introduction of commensal rodents infected with Yersinia pestis via early industrial shipping. Over the last century, plague ecology has transitioned through cycles of widespread human transmission, urban domestic transmission among commensal rodents, and ultimately settled into the predominantly sylvan foci that remain today where it is maintained alternatively by enzootic and epizootic transmission. While zoonotic transmission to humans is much less common in modern times, significant plague risk remains in parts of the western US. Moreover, risk to some threatened species that are part of the epizootic cycle can be quite substantive. This investigation attempted to predict the risk of plague across the western US by modeling the ecologic niche of plague in sylvan and domestic animals identified between 2000 and 2015. A Maxent machine learning algorithm was used to predict this niche based on climate, altitude, land cover, and the presence of an important enzootic species, Peromyscus maniculatus. This model demonstrated good predictive ability (AUC = 86% and identified areas of high risk in central Colorado, north-central New Mexico, and southwestern and northeastern California. The presence of P. maniculatus, altitude, precipitation during the driest and wettest quarters, and distance to artificial surfaces, all contributed substantively to maximizing the gain function. These findings add to the known landscape epidemiology and infection ecology of plague in the western US and may suggest locations of particular risk to be targeted for wild and domestic animal intervention.

  1. Ecological Niche Modeling of Risk Factors for H7N9 Human Infection in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Min Xu

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available China was attacked by a serious influenza A (H7N9 virus in 2013. The first human infection case was confirmed in Shanghai City and soon spread across most of eastern China. Using the methods of Geographic Information Systems (GIS and ecological niche modeling (ENM, this research quantitatively analyzed the relationships between the H7N9 occurrence and the main environmental factors, including meteorological variables, human population density, bird migratory routes, wetland distribution, and live poultry farms, markets, and processing factories. Based on these relationships the probability of the presence of H7N9 was predicted. Results indicated that the distribution of live poultry processing factories, farms, and human population density were the top three most important determinants of the H7N9 human infection. The relative contributions to the model of live poultry processing factories, farms and human population density were 39.9%, 17.7% and 17.7%, respectively, while the maximum temperature of the warmest month and mean relative humidity had nearly no contribution to the model. The paper has developed an ecological niche model (ENM that predicts the spatial distribution of H7N9 cases in China using environmental variables. The area under the curve (AUC values of the model were greater than 0.9 (0.992 for the training samples and 0.961 for the test data. The findings indicated that most of the high risk areas were distributed in the Yangtze River Delta. These findings have important significance for the Chinese government to enhance the environmental surveillance at multiple human poultry interfaces in the high risk area.

  2. Hydrological-niche models predict water plant functional group distributions in diverse wetland types.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deane, David C; Nicol, Jason M; Gehrig, Susan L; Harding, Claire; Aldridge, Kane T; Goodman, Abigail M; Brookes, Justin D

    2017-06-01

    Human use of water resources threatens environmental water supplies. If resource managers are to develop policies that avoid unacceptable ecological impacts, some means to predict ecosystem response to changes in water availability is necessary. This is difficult to achieve at spatial scales relevant for water resource management because of the high natural variability in ecosystem hydrology and ecology. Water plant functional groups classify species with similar hydrological niche preferences together, allowing a qualitative means to generalize community responses to changes in hydrology. We tested the potential for functional groups in making quantitative prediction of water plant functional group distributions across diverse wetland types over a large geographical extent. We sampled wetlands covering a broad range of hydrogeomorphic and salinity conditions in South Australia, collecting both hydrological and floristic data from 687 quadrats across 28 wetland hydrological gradients. We built hydrological-niche models for eight water plant functional groups using a range of candidate models combining different surface inundation metrics. We then tested the predictive performance of top-ranked individual and averaged models for each functional group. Cross validation showed that models achieved acceptable predictive performance, with correct classification rates in the range 0.68-0.95. Model predictions can be made at any spatial scale that hydrological data are available and could be implemented in a geographical information system. We show the response of water plant functional groups to inundation is consistent enough across diverse wetland types to quantify the probability of hydrological impacts over regional spatial scales. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

  3. Postglacial species displacement in Triturus newts deduced from asymmetrically introgressed mitochondrial DNA and ecological niche models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wielstra Ben

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background If the geographical displacement of one species by another is accompanied by hybridization, mitochondrial DNA can introgress asymmetrically, from the outcompeted species into the invading species, over a large area. We explore this phenomenon using the two parapatric crested newt species, Triturus macedonicus and T. karelinii, distributed on the Balkan Peninsula in south-eastern Europe, as a model. Results We first delimit a ca. 54,000 km2 area in which T. macedonicus contains T. karelinii mitochondrial DNA. This introgression zone bisects the range of T. karelinii, cutting off a T. karelinii enclave. The high similarity of introgressed mitochondrial DNA haplotypes with those found in T. karelinii suggests a recent transfer across the species boundary. We then use ecological niche modeling to explore habitat suitability of the location of the present day introgression zone under current, mid-Holocene and Last Glacial Maximum conditions. This area was inhospitable during the Last Glacial Maximum for both species, but would have been habitable at the mid-Holocene. Since the mid-Holocene, habitat suitability generally increased for T. macedonicus, whereas it decreased for T. karelinii. Conclusion The presence of a T. karelinii enclave suggests that T. karelinii was the first to colonize the area where the present day introgression zone is positioned after the Last Glacial Maximum. Subsequently, we propose T. karelinii was outcompeted by T. macedonicus, which captured T. karelinii mitochondrial DNA via introgressive hybridization in the process. Ecological niche modeling suggests that this replacement was likely facilitated by a shift in climate since the mid-Holocene. We suggest that the northwestern part of the current introgression zone was probably never inhabited by T. karelinii itself, and that T. karelinii mitochondrial DNA spread there through T. macedonicus exclusively. Considering the spatial distribution of the

  4. Time-specific ecological niche modeling predicts spatial dynamics of vector insects and human dengue cases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peterson, A Townsend; Martínez-Campos, Carmen; Nakazawa, Yoshinori; Martínez-Meyer, Enrique

    2005-09-01

    Numerous human diseases-malaria, dengue, yellow fever and leishmaniasis, to name a few-are transmitted by insect vectors with brief life cycles and biting activity that varies in both space and time. Although the general geographic distributions of these epidemiologically important species are known, the spatiotemporal variation in their emergence and activity remains poorly understood. We used ecological niche modeling via a genetic algorithm to produce time-specific predictive models of monthly distributions of Aedes aegypti in Mexico in 1995. Significant predictions of monthly mosquito activity and distributions indicate that predicting spatiotemporal dynamics of disease vector species is feasible; significant coincidence with human cases of dengue indicate that these dynamics probably translate directly into transmission of dengue virus to humans. This approach provides new potential for optimizing use of resources for disease prevention and remediation via automated forecasting of disease transmission risk.

  5. Domestic policy consequences of new implementation models. Consequences for industrial niches; Industripolitiske konsekvenser av nye gjennomfoeringsmodeller. Konsekvenser for nisjebedriftene

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Johannessen, T.

    1995-12-31

    The paper relates to the consequences of domestic policy with the focus on new implementation models used for cost reduction of offshore development projects in Norway. The paper puts the attention to the consequences from implementation models on industrial niches (subcontractors)

  6. Reconciling phylogeography and ecological niche models for New Zealand beetles looking beyond glacial refugia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Marske, Katharine Ann; Leschen, Richard; Buckley, Thomas

    2011-01-01

    stochastic search variable selection incorporated in BEAST to identify historical dispersal patterns via ancestral state reconstruction. Ecological niche models (ENMs) were incorporated to reconstruct the potential geographic distribution of each species during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Coalescent...... analyses suggest a North Island origin for E. lawsoni, with gene flow predominately north–south between adjacent regions. ENMs for E. lawsoni indicated glacial refugia in coastal regions of both main islands, consistent with phylogenetic patterns but at odds with the coalescent dates, which implicate much...... on both main islands is evident. Divergence dates for both species are consistent with the topographic evolution of New Zealand over the last 10 Ma, whereas the signature of the LGM is less apparent in the time-scaled phylogeny....

  7. Matching global and regional distribution models of the recluse spider Loxosceles rufescens: to what extent do these reflect niche conservatism?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taucare-Ríos, A; Nentwig, W; Bizama, G; Bustamante, R O

    2018-06-08

    The Mediterranean recluse spider, Loxosceles rufescens (Dufour, 1820) (Araneae: Sicariidae) is a cosmopolitan spider that has been introduced in many parts of the world. Its bite can be dangerous to humans. However, the potential distribution of this alien species, which is able to spread fairly quickly with human aid, is completely unknown. Using a combination of global and regional niche models, it is possible to analyse the spread of this species in relation to environmental conditions. This analysis found that the successful spreading of this species varies according to the region invaded. The majority of populations in Asia are stable and show niche conservatism, whereas in North America this spider is expected to be less successful in occupying niches that differ from those in its native region and that do not support its synanthropic way of living. © 2018 The Royal Entomological Society.

  8. Asymmetric biotic interactions and abiotic niche differences revealed by a dynamic joint species distribution model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lany, Nina K; Zarnetske, Phoebe L; Schliep, Erin M; Schaeffer, Robert N; Orians, Colin M; Orwig, David A; Preisser, Evan L

    2018-05-01

    A species' distribution and abundance are determined by abiotic conditions and biotic interactions with other species in the community. Most species distribution models correlate the occurrence of a single species with environmental variables only, and leave out biotic interactions. To test the importance of biotic interactions on occurrence and abundance, we compared a multivariate spatiotemporal model of the joint abundance of two invasive insects that share a host plant, hemlock woolly adelgid (HWA; Adelges tsugae) and elongate hemlock scale (EHS; Fiorina externa), to independent models that do not account for dependence among co-occurring species. The joint model revealed that HWA responded more strongly to abiotic conditions than EHS. Additionally, HWA appeared to predispose stands to subsequent increase of EHS, but HWA abundance was not strongly dependent on EHS abundance. This study demonstrates how incorporating spatial and temporal dependence into a species distribution model can reveal the dependence of a species' abundance on other species in the community. Accounting for dependence among co-occurring species with a joint distribution model can also improve estimation of the abiotic niche for species affected by interspecific interactions. © 2018 by the Ecological Society of America.

  9. Ecological niche modelling of Rift Valley fever virus vectors in Baringo, Kenya

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alfred O. Ochieng

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Background: Rift Valley fever (RVF is a vector-borne zoonotic disease that has an impact on human health and animal productivity. Here, we explore the use of vector presence modelling to predict the distribution of RVF vector species under climate change scenario to demonstrate the potential for geographic spread of Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV. Objectives: To evaluate the effect of climate change on RVF vector distribution in Baringo County, Kenya, with an aim of developing a risk map for spatial prediction of RVF outbreaks. Methodology: The study used data on vector presence and ecological niche modelling (MaxEnt algorithm to predict the effect of climatic change on habitat suitability and the spatial distribution of RVF vectors in Baringo County. Data on species occurrence were obtained from longitudinal sampling of adult mosquitoes and larvae in the study area. We used present (2000 and future (2050 Bioclim climate databases to model the vector distribution. Results: Model results predicted potential suitable areas with high success rates for Culex quinquefasciatus, Culex univitattus, Mansonia africana, and Mansonia uniformis. Under the present climatic conditions, the lowlands were found to be highly suitable for all the species. Future climatic conditions indicate an increase in the spatial distribution of Cx. quinquefasciatus and M. africana. Model performance was statistically significant. Conclusion: Soil types, precipitation in the driest quarter, precipitation seasonality, and isothermality showed the highest predictive potential for the four species.

  10. The use of ecological niche modeling to infer potential risk areas of snakebite in the Mexican state of Veracruz.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos Yañez-Arenas

    Full Text Available Many authors have claimed that snakebite risk is associated with human population density, human activities, and snake behavior. Here we analyzed whether environmental suitability of vipers can be used as an indicator of snakebite risk. We tested several hypotheses to explain snakebite incidence, through the construction of models incorporating both environmental suitability and socioeconomic variables in Veracruz, Mexico.Ecological niche modeling (ENM was used to estimate potential geographic and ecological distributions of nine viper species' in Veracruz. We calculated the distance to the species' niche centroid (DNC; this distance may be associated with a prediction of abundance. We found significant inverse relationships between snakebites and DNCs of common vipers (Crotalus simus and Bothrops asper, explaining respectively 15% and almost 35% of variation in snakebite incidence. Additionally, DNCs for these two vipers, in combination with marginalization of human populations, accounted for 76% of variation in incidence.Our results suggest that niche modeling and niche-centroid distance approaches can be used to mapping distributions of environmental suitability for venomous snakes; combining this ecological information with socioeconomic factors may help with inferring potential risk areas for snakebites, since hospital data are often biased (especially when incidences are low.

  11. The use of ecological niche modeling to infer potential risk areas of snakebite in the Mexican state of Veracruz.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yañez-Arenas, Carlos; Peterson, A Townsend; Mokondoko, Pierre; Rojas-Soto, Octavio; Martínez-Meyer, Enrique

    2014-01-01

    Many authors have claimed that snakebite risk is associated with human population density, human activities, and snake behavior. Here we analyzed whether environmental suitability of vipers can be used as an indicator of snakebite risk. We tested several hypotheses to explain snakebite incidence, through the construction of models incorporating both environmental suitability and socioeconomic variables in Veracruz, Mexico. Ecological niche modeling (ENM) was used to estimate potential geographic and ecological distributions of nine viper species' in Veracruz. We calculated the distance to the species' niche centroid (DNC); this distance may be associated with a prediction of abundance. We found significant inverse relationships between snakebites and DNCs of common vipers (Crotalus simus and Bothrops asper), explaining respectively 15% and almost 35% of variation in snakebite incidence. Additionally, DNCs for these two vipers, in combination with marginalization of human populations, accounted for 76% of variation in incidence. Our results suggest that niche modeling and niche-centroid distance approaches can be used to mapping distributions of environmental suitability for venomous snakes; combining this ecological information with socioeconomic factors may help with inferring potential risk areas for snakebites, since hospital data are often biased (especially when incidences are low).

  12. Evaluation of the impacts of climate change on disease vectors through ecological niche modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carvalho, B M; Rangel, E F; Vale, M M

    2017-08-01

    Vector-borne diseases are exceptionally sensitive to climate change. Predicting vector occurrence in specific regions is a challenge that disease control programs must meet in order to plan and execute control interventions and climate change adaptation measures. Recently, an increasing number of scientific articles have applied ecological niche modelling (ENM) to study medically important insects and ticks. With a myriad of available methods, it is challenging to interpret their results. Here we review the future projections of disease vectors produced by ENM, and assess their trends and limitations. Tropical regions are currently occupied by many vector species; but future projections indicate poleward expansions of suitable climates for their occurrence and, therefore, entomological surveillance must be continuously done in areas projected to become suitable. The most commonly applied methods were the maximum entropy algorithm, generalized linear models, the genetic algorithm for rule set prediction, and discriminant analysis. Lack of consideration of the full-known current distribution of the target species on models with future projections has led to questionable predictions. We conclude that there is no ideal 'gold standard' method to model vector distributions; researchers are encouraged to test different methods for the same data. Such practice is becoming common in the field of ENM, but still lags behind in studies of disease vectors.

  13. California statewide model for high-speed rail

    OpenAIRE

    Outwater, Maren; Tierney, Kevin; Bradley, Mark; Sall, Elizabeth; Kuppam, Arun; Modugala, Vamsee

    2010-01-01

    The California High Speed Rail Authority (CHSRA) and the Metropolitan Transportation Commission (MTC) have developed a new statewide model to support evaluation of high-speed rail alternatives in the State of California. This statewide model will also support future planning activities of the California Department of Transportation (Caltrans). The approach to this statewide model explicitly recognizes the unique characteristics of intraregional travel demand and interregional travel demand. A...

  14. Predicting geographic distributions of Phacellodomus species (Aves: Furnariidae in South America based on ecological niche modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria da Salete Gurgel Costa

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Phacellodomus Reichenbach, 1853, comprises nine species of Furnariids that occur in South America in open and generally dry areas. This study estimated the geographic distributions of Phacellodomus species in South America by ecological niche modeling. Applying maximum entropy method, models were produced for eight species based on six climatic variables and 949 occurrence records. Since highest climatic suitability for Phacellodomus species has been estimated in open and dry areas, the Amazon rainforest areas are not very suitable for these species. Annual precipitation and minimum temperature of the coldest month are the variables that most influence the models. Phacellodomus species occurred in 35 ecoregions of South America. Chaco and Uruguayan savannas were the ecoregions with the highest number of species. Despite the overall connection of Phacellodomus species with dry areas, species such as P. ruber, P. rufifrons, P. ferrugineigula and P. erythrophthalmus occurred in wet forests and wetland ecoregions.

  15. Hypoxia-Activated Prodrug TH-302 Targets Hypoxic Bone Marrow Niches in Preclinical Leukemia Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benito, Juliana; Ramirez, Marc S; Millward, Niki Zacharias; Velez, Juliana; Harutyunyan, Karine G; Lu, Hongbo; Shi, Yue-Xi; Matre, Polina; Jacamo, Rodrigo; Ma, Helen; Konoplev, Sergej; McQueen, Teresa; Volgin, Andrei; Protopopova, Marina; Mu, Hong; Lee, Jaehyuk; Bhattacharya, Pratip K; Marszalek, Joseph R; Davis, R Eric; Bankson, James A; Cortes, Jorge E; Hart, Charles P; Andreeff, Michael; Konopleva, Marina

    2016-04-01

    To characterize the prevalence of hypoxia in the leukemic bone marrow, its association with metabolic and transcriptional changes in the leukemic blasts and the utility of hypoxia-activated prodrug TH-302 in leukemia models. Hyperpolarized magnetic resonance spectroscopy was utilized to interrogate the pyruvate metabolism of the bone marrow in the murine acute myeloid leukemia (AML) model. Nanostring technology was used to evaluate a gene set defining a hypoxia signature in leukemic blasts and normal donors. The efficacy of the hypoxia-activated prodrug TH-302 was examined in the in vitro and in vivo leukemia models. Metabolic imaging has demonstrated increased glycolysis in the femur of leukemic mice compared with healthy control mice, suggesting metabolic reprogramming of hypoxic bone marrow niches. Primary leukemic blasts in samples from AML patients overexpressed genes defining a "hypoxia index" compared with samples from normal donors. TH-302 depleted hypoxic cells, prolonged survival of xenograft leukemia models, and reduced the leukemia stem cell pool in vivo In the aggressive FLT3/ITD MOLM-13 model, combination of TH-302 with tyrosine kinase inhibitor sorafenib had greater antileukemia effects than either drug alone. Importantly, residual leukemic bone marrow cells in a syngeneic AML model remain hypoxic after chemotherapy. In turn, administration of TH-302 following chemotherapy treatment to mice with residual disease prolonged survival, suggesting that this approach may be suitable for eliminating chemotherapy-resistant leukemia cells. These findings implicate a pathogenic role of hypoxia in leukemia maintenance and chemoresistance and demonstrate the feasibility of targeting hypoxic cells by hypoxia cytotoxins. ©2015 American Association for Cancer Research.

  16. Interpreting the process behind endemism in China by integrating the phylogeography and ecological niche models of the Stachyridopsis ruficeps.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huatao Liu

    Full Text Available An area of endemism (AOE is a complex expression of the ecological and evolutionary history of a species. Here we aim to address the principal drivers of avian diversification in shaping patterns of endemism in China by integrating genetic, ecological, and distributional data on the Red-headed Tree Babbler (Stachyridopsis ruficeps, which is distributed across the eastern Himalayas and south China. We sequenced two mtDNA markers from 182 individuals representing all three of the primary AOEs in China. Phylogenetic inferences were used to reconstruct intraspecific phylogenetic relationships. Divergence time and population demography were estimated to gain insight into the evolutionary history of the species. We used Ecological niche modeling to predict species' distributions during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM and in the present. Finally, we also used two quantitative tests, an identity test and background test to assess the similarity of ecological niche preferences between adjacent lineages. We found five primary reciprocally monophyletic clades, typically separated approximately 0.2-2.27 MYA, of which three were deeply isolated endemic lineages located in the three AOEs. All phylogroups were detected to have undergone population expansion during the past 0.3 MY. Niche models showed discontinuous habitats, and there were three barriers of less suitable habitat during the LGM and in modern times. Ecoclimatic niches may diverge significantly even over recent timescales, as each phylogroup had a unique distribution, and unique niche characteristics. Vicariant events associated with geographical and ecological barriers, glacial refuges and ecological differentiation may be the main drivers forming the pattern of endemism in China.

  17. Application of a niche-based model for forest cover classification

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amici V

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available In recent years, a surge of interest in biodiversity conservation have led to the development of new approaches to facilitate ecologically-based conservation policies and management plans. In particular, image classification and predictive distribution modeling applied to forest habitats, constitute a crucial issue as forests constitute the most widespread vegetation type and play a key role for ecosystem functioning. Then, the general purpose of this study is to develop a framework that in the absence of large amounts of field data for large areas may allow to select the most appropriate classification. In some cases, a hard division of classes is required, especially as support to environmental policies; despite this it is necessary to take into account problems which derive from a crisp view of ecological entities being mapped, since habitats are expected to be structurally complex and continuously vary within a landscape. In this paper, a niche model (MaxEnt, generally used to estimate species/habitat distribution, has been applied to classify forest cover in a complex Mediterranean area and to estimate the probability distribution of four forest types, producing continuous maps of forest cover. The use of the obtained models as validation of model for crisp classifications, highlighted that crisp classification, which is being continuously used in landscape research and planning, is not free from drawbacks as it is showing a high degree of inner variability. The modeling approach followed by this study, taking into account the uncertainty proper of the natural ecosystems and the use of environmental variables in land cover classification, may represent an useful approach to making more efficient and effective field inventories and to developing effective forest conservation policies.

  18. Distribution and Conservation of Davilla (Dilleniaceae in Brazilian Atlantic Forest Using Ecological Niche Modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ismael Martins Pereira

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available We have modeled the ecological niche for 12 plant species belonging to the genus Davilla (Dilleniaceae which occur in the Atlantic Forest of Brazil. This group includes endemic species lianas threatened by extinction and is therefore a useful indicator for forest areas requiring conservation. The aims are to compare the distribution and richness of species within the protected areas, assessing the degree of protection and gap analysis of reserves for this group. We used the Maxent algorithm with environmental and occurrence data, and produced geographic distribution maps. The results show that high species richness occurs in forest and coastal forest of Espírito Santo to Bahia states. The endemic species comprise D. flexuosa, D. macrocarpa, D. flexuosa, D. grandifolia, and D. sessilifolia. In the Atlantic Forest of southeastern Brazil, the following endemic species occur: D. tintinnabulata and D. glaziovii, with this latter species being included in the “red list” due habitat loss and predatory extractivism. The indicators of species richness in the coastal region of Bahia correspond with floristic inventories that point to this area having a high biodiversity. Although this region has several protected areas, there are gaps in reserves, which, combined with anthropogenic threats and fragmentation, have caused several problems for biodiversity.

  19. Geographic Distribution of Chagas Disease Vectors in Brazil Based on Ecological Niche Modeling

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    Rodrigo Gurgel-Gonçalves

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Although Brazil was declared free from Chagas disease transmission by the domestic vector Triatoma infestans, human acute cases are still being registered based on transmission by native triatomine species. For a better understanding of transmission risk, the geographic distribution of Brazilian triatomines was analyzed. Sixteen out of 62 Brazilian species that both occur in >20 municipalities and present synanthropic tendencies were modeled based on their ecological niches. Panstrongylus geniculatus and P. megistus showed broad ecological ranges, but most of the species sort out by the biome in which they are distributed: Rhodnius pictipes and R. robustus in the Amazon; R. neglectus, Triatoma sordida, and T. costalimai in the Cerrado; R. nasutus, P. lutzi, T. brasiliensis, T. pseudomaculata, T. melanocephala, and T. petrocchiae in the Caatinga; T. rubrovaria in the southern pampas; T. tibiamaculata and T. vitticeps in the Atlantic Forest. Although most occurrences were recorded in open areas (Cerrado and Caatinga, our results show that all environmental conditions in the country are favorable to one or more of the species analyzed, such that almost nowhere is Chagas transmission risk negligible.

  20. Evolutionary responses to a constructed niche: ancient Mesoamericans as a model of gene-culture coevolution.

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    Tábita Hünemeier

    Full Text Available Culture and genetics rely on two distinct but not isolated transmission systems. Cultural processes may change the human selective environment and thereby affect which individuals survive and reproduce. Here, we evaluated whether the modes of subsistence in Native American populations and the frequencies of the ABCA1*Arg230Cys polymorphism were correlated. Further, we examined whether the evolutionary consequences of the agriculturally constructed niche in Mesoamerica could be considered as a gene-culture coevolution model. For this purpose, we genotyped 229 individuals affiliated with 19 Native American populations and added data for 41 other Native American groups (n = 1905 to the analysis. In combination with the SNP cluster of a neutral region, this dataset was then used to unravel the scenario involved in 230Cys evolutionary history. The estimated age of 230Cys is compatible with its origin occurring in the American continent. The correlation of its frequencies with the archeological data on Zea pollen in Mesoamerica/Central America, the neutral coalescent simulations, and the F(ST-based natural selection analysis suggest that maize domestication was the driving force in the increase in the frequencies of 230Cys in this region. These results may represent the first example of a gene-culture coevolution involving an autochthonous American allele.

  1. Ecological-niche modeling and prioritization of conservation-area networks for Mexican herpetofauna.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Urbina-Cardona, J Nicolás; Flores-Villela, Oscar

    2010-08-01

    One of the most important tools in conservation biology is information on the geographic distribution of species and the variables determining those patterns. We used maximum-entropy niche modeling to run distribution models for 222 amphibian and 371 reptile species (49% endemics and 27% threatened) for which we had 34,619 single geographic records. The planning region is in southeastern Mexico, is 20% of the country's area, includes 80% of the country's herpetofauna, and lacks an adequate protected-area system. We used probabilistic data to build distribution models of herpetofauna for use in prioritizing conservation areas for three target groups (all species and threatened and endemic species). The accuracy of species-distribution models was better for endemic and threatened species than it was for all species. Forty-seven percent of the region has been deforested and additional conservation areas with 13.7% to 88.6% more native vegetation (76% to 96% of the areas are outside the current protected-area system) are needed. There was overlap in 26 of the main selected areas in the conservation-area network prioritized to preserve the target groups, and for all three target groups the proportion of vegetation types needed for their conservation was constant: 30% pine and oak forests, 22% tropical evergreen forest, 17% low deciduous forest, and 8% montane cloud forests. The fact that different groups of species require the same proportion of habitat types suggests that the pine and oak forests support the highest proportion of endemic and threatened species and should therefore be given priority over other types of vegetation for inclusion in the protected areas of southeastern Mexico.

  2. Intraspecific niche models for ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) suggest potential variability in population-level response to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maguire, Kaitlin C.; Shinneman, Douglas; Potter, Kevin M.; Hipkins, Valerie D.

    2018-01-01

    Unique responses to climate change can occur across intraspecific levels, resulting in individualistic adaptation or movement patterns among populations within a given species. Thus, the need to model potential responses among genetically distinct populations within a species is increasingly recognized. However, predictive models of future distributions are regularly fit at the species level, often because intraspecific variation is unknown or is identified only within limited sample locations. In this study, we considered the role of intraspecific variation to shape the geographic distribution of ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa), an ecologically and economically important tree species in North America. Morphological and genetic variation across the distribution of ponderosa pine suggest the need to model intraspecific populations: the two varieties (var. ponderosa and var. scopulorum) and several haplotype groups within each variety have been shown to occupy unique climatic niches, suggesting populations have distinct evolutionary lineages adapted to different environmental conditions. We utilized a recently-available, geographically-widespread dataset of intraspecific variation (haplotypes) for ponderosa pine and a recently-devised lineage distance modeling approach to derive additional, likely intraspecific occurrence locations. We confirmed the relative uniqueness of each haplotype-climate relationship using a niche-overlap analysis, and developed ecological niche models (ENMs) to project the distribution for two varieties and eight haplotypes under future climate forecasts. Future projections of haplotype niche distributions generally revealed greater potential range loss than predicted for the varieties. This difference may reflect intraspecific responses of distinct evolutionary lineages. However, directional trends are generally consistent across intraspecific levels, and include a loss of distributional area and an upward shift in elevation. Our results

  3. Intraspecific niche models for ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) suggest potential variability in population-level response to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maguire, Kaitlin C; Shinneman, Douglas J; Potter, Kevin M; Hipkins, Valerie D

    2018-03-14

    Unique responses to climate change can occur across intraspecific levels, resulting in individualistic adaptation or movement patterns among populations within a given species. Thus, the need to model potential responses among genetically distinct populations within a species is increasingly recognized. However, predictive models of future distributions are regularly fit at the species level, often because intraspecific variation is unknown or is identified only within limited sample locations. In this study, we considered the role of intraspecific variation to shape the geographic distribution of ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa), an ecologically and economically important tree species in North America. Morphological and genetic variation across the distribution of ponderosa pine suggest the need to model intraspecific populations: the two varieties (var. ponderosa and var. scopulorum) and several haplotype groups within each variety have been shown to occupy unique climatic niches, suggesting populations have distinct evolutionary lineages adapted to different environmental conditions. We utilized a recently-available, geographically-widespread dataset of intraspecific variation (haplotypes) for ponderosa pine and a recently-devised lineage distance modeling approach to derive additional, likely intraspecific occurrence locations. We confirmed the relative uniqueness of each haplotype-climate relationship using a niche-overlap analysis, and developed ecological niche models (ENMs) to project the distribution for two varieties and eight haplotypes under future climate forecasts. Future projections of haplotype niche distributions generally revealed greater potential range loss than predicted for the varieties. This difference may reflect intraspecific responses of distinct evolutionary lineages. However, directional trends are generally consistent across intraspecific levels, and include a loss of distributional area and an upward shift in elevation. Our results

  4. Monterey, California Tsunami Forecast Grids for MOST Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Monterey, California Forecast Model Grids provides bathymetric data strictly for tsunami inundation modeling with the Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST) model....

  5. Predicting the current and future potential distributions of lymphatic filariasis in Africa using maximum entropy ecological niche modelling.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hannah Slater

    Full Text Available Modelling the spatial distributions of human parasite species is crucial to understanding the environmental determinants of infection as well as for guiding the planning of control programmes. Here, we use ecological niche modelling to map the current potential distribution of the macroparasitic disease, lymphatic filariasis (LF, in Africa, and to estimate how future changes in climate and population could affect its spread and burden across the continent. We used 508 community-specific infection presence data collated from the published literature in conjunction with five predictive environmental/climatic and demographic variables, and a maximum entropy niche modelling method to construct the first ecological niche maps describing potential distribution and burden of LF in Africa. We also ran the best-fit model against climate projections made by the HADCM3 and CCCMA models for 2050 under A2a and B2a scenarios to simulate the likely distribution of LF under future climate and population changes. We predict a broad geographic distribution of LF in Africa extending from the west to the east across the middle region of the continent, with high probabilities of occurrence in the Western Africa compared to large areas of medium probability interspersed with smaller areas of high probability in Central and Eastern Africa and in Madagascar. We uncovered complex relationships between predictor ecological niche variables and the probability of LF occurrence. We show for the first time that predicted climate change and population growth will expand both the range and risk of LF infection (and ultimately disease in an endemic region. We estimate that populations at risk to LF may range from 543 and 804 million currently, and that this could rise to between 1.65 to 1.86 billion in the future depending on the climate scenario used and thresholds applied to signify infection presence.

  6. Plant stem cell niches.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aichinger, Ernst; Kornet, Noortje; Friedrich, Thomas; Laux, Thomas

    2012-01-01

    Multicellular organisms possess pluripotent stem cells to form new organs, replenish the daily loss of cells, or regenerate organs after injury. Stem cells are maintained in specific environments, the stem cell niches, that provide signals to block differentiation. In plants, stem cell niches are situated in the shoot, root, and vascular meristems-self-perpetuating units of organ formation. Plants' lifelong activity-which, as in the case of trees, can extend over more than a thousand years-requires that a robust regulatory network keep the balance between pluripotent stem cells and differentiating descendants. In this review, we focus on current models in plant stem cell research elaborated during the past two decades, mainly in the model plant Arabidopsis thaliana. We address the roles of mobile signals on transcriptional modules involved in balancing cell fates. In addition, we discuss shared features of and differences between the distinct stem cell niches of Arabidopsis.

  7. Niche players

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seandel, Marco; Falciatori, Ilaria; Shmelkov, Sergey V.; Kim, Jiyeon; James, Daylon; Rafii, Shahin

    2010-01-01

    The undifferentiated spermatogonia of adult mouse testes are composed of both true stem cells and committed progenitors. It is unclear what normally prevents these adult germ cells from manifesting multipotency. The critical elements of the spermatogonial stem cell niche, while poorly understood, are thought to be composed of Sertoli cells with several other somatic cell types in close proximity. We recently discovered a novel orphan G-protein coupled receptor (GPR125) that is restricted to undifferentiated spermatogonia within the testis. GPR125 expression was maintained when the progenitor cells were extracted from the in vivo niche and propagated under growth conditions that recapitulate key elements of the niche. Such conditions preserved the ability of the cells to generate multipotent derivatives, known as multipotent adult spermatogonial derived progenitor cells (MASCs). Upon differentiation, the latter produced a variety tissues including functional endothelium, illustrating the potential applications of such cells. Thus, GPR125 represents a novel target for purifying adult stem and progenitors from tissues, with the goal of developing autologous multipotent cell lines. PMID:18256534

  8. Ecological niche modelling and nDNA sequencing support a new, morphologically cryptic beetle species unveiled by DNA barcoding.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hawlitschek, Oliver; Porch, Nick; Hendrich, Lars; Balke, Michael

    2011-02-09

    DNA sequencing techniques used to estimate biodiversity, such as DNA barcoding, may reveal cryptic species. However, disagreements between barcoding and morphological data have already led to controversy. Species delimitation should therefore not be based on mtDNA alone. Here, we explore the use of nDNA and bioclimatic modelling in a new species of aquatic beetle revealed by mtDNA sequence data. The aquatic beetle fauna of Australia is characterised by high degrees of endemism, including local radiations such as the genus Antiporus. Antiporus femoralis was previously considered to exist in two disjunct, but morphologically indistinguishable populations in south-western and south-eastern Australia. We constructed a phylogeny of Antiporus and detected a deep split between these populations. Diagnostic characters from the highly variable nuclear protein encoding arginine kinase gene confirmed the presence of two isolated populations. We then used ecological niche modelling to examine the climatic niche characteristics of the two populations. All results support the status of the two populations as distinct species. We describe the south-western species as Antiporus occidentalis sp.n. In addition to nDNA sequence data and extended use of mitochondrial sequences, ecological niche modelling has great potential for delineating morphologically cryptic species.

  9. Arena Cove, California Tsunami Forecast Grids for MOST Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Arena Cove, California Forecast Grids provides bathymetric data strictly for tsunami inundation modeling with the Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST) model. MOST...

  10. Crescent City, California Tsunami Forecast Grids for MOST Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Crescent City, California Forecast Model Grids provides bathymetric data strictly for tsunami inundation modeling with the Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST)...

  11. Los Angeles, California Tsunami Forecast Grids for MOST Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Los Angeles, California Forecast Model Grids provides bathymetric data strictly for tsunami inundation modeling with the Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST)...

  12. Santa Barbara, California Tsunami Forecast Grids for MOST Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Santa Barbara, California Forecast Model Grids provides bathymetric data strictly for tsunami inundation modeling with the Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST)...

  13. Point Reyes, California Tsunami Forecast Grids for MOST Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Point Reyes, California Forecast Model Grids provides bathymetric data strictly for tsunami inundation modeling with the Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST)...

  14. Port San Luis, California Tsunami Forecast Grids for MOST Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Port San Luis, California Forecast Model Grids provides bathymetric data strictly for tsunami inundation modeling with the Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST)...

  15. Eureka, California Tsunami Forecast Grids for MOST Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Eureka, California Forecast Grids provides bathymetric data strictly for tsunami inundation modeling with the Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST) model. MOST is a...

  16. San Francisco, California Tsunami Forecast Grids for MOST Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The San Francisco, California Forecast Model Grids provides bathymetric data strictly for tsunami inundation modeling with the Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST)...

  17. Stem Cell Spheroids and Ex Vivo Niche Modeling: Rationalization and Scaling-Up.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chimenti, Isotta; Massai, Diana; Morbiducci, Umberto; Beltrami, Antonio Paolo; Pesce, Maurizio; Messina, Elisa

    2017-04-01

    Improved protocols/devices for in vitro culture of 3D cell spheroids may provide essential cues for proper growth and differentiation of stem/progenitor cells (S/PCs) in their niche, allowing preservation of specific features, such as multi-lineage potential and paracrine activity. Several platforms have been employed to replicate these conditions and to generate S/PC spheroids for therapeutic applications. However, they incompletely reproduce the niche environment, with partial loss of its highly regulated network, with additional hurdles in the field of cardiac biology, due to debated resident S/PCs therapeutic potential and clinical translation. In this contribution, the essential niche conditions (metabolic, geometric, mechanical) that allow S/PCs maintenance/commitment will be discussed. In particular, we will focus on both existing bioreactor-based platforms for the culture of S/PC as spheroids, and on possible criteria for the scaling-up of niche-like spheroids, which could be envisaged as promising tools for personalized cardiac regenerative medicine, as well as for high-throughput drug screening.

  18. Local-scale models reveal ecological niche variability in amphibian and reptile communities from two contrasting biogeographic regions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alberto Muñoz

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Ecological Niche Models (ENMs are widely used to describe how environmental factors influence species distribution. Modelling at a local scale, compared to a large scale within a high environmental gradient, can improve our understanding of ecological species niches. The main goal of this study is to assess and compare the contribution of environmental variables to amphibian and reptile ENMs in two Spanish national parks located in contrasting biogeographic regions, i.e., the Mediterranean and the Atlantic area. The ENMs were built with maximum entropy modelling using 11 environmental variables in each territory. The contributions of these variables to the models were analysed and classified using various statistical procedures (Mann–Whitney U tests, Principal Components Analysis and General Linear Models. Distance to the hydrological network was consistently the most relevant variable for both parks and taxonomic classes. Topographic variables (i.e., slope and altitude were the second most predictive variables, followed by climatic variables. Differences in variable contribution were observed between parks and taxonomic classes. Variables related to water availability had the larger contribution to the models in the Mediterranean park, while topography variables were decisive in the Atlantic park. Specific response curves to environmental variables were in accordance with the biogeographic affinity of species (Mediterranean and non-Mediterranean species and taxonomy (amphibians and reptiles. Interestingly, these results were observed for species located in both parks, particularly those situated at their range limits. Our findings show that ecological niche models built at local scale reveal differences in habitat preferences within a wide environmental gradient. Therefore, modelling at local scales rather than assuming large-scale models could be preferable for the establishment of conservation strategies for herptile species in natural

  19. Local-scale models reveal ecological niche variability in amphibian and reptile communities from two contrasting biogeographic regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santos, Xavier; Felicísimo, Ángel M.

    2016-01-01

    Ecological Niche Models (ENMs) are widely used to describe how environmental factors influence species distribution. Modelling at a local scale, compared to a large scale within a high environmental gradient, can improve our understanding of ecological species niches. The main goal of this study is to assess and compare the contribution of environmental variables to amphibian and reptile ENMs in two Spanish national parks located in contrasting biogeographic regions, i.e., the Mediterranean and the Atlantic area. The ENMs were built with maximum entropy modelling using 11 environmental variables in each territory. The contributions of these variables to the models were analysed and classified using various statistical procedures (Mann–Whitney U tests, Principal Components Analysis and General Linear Models). Distance to the hydrological network was consistently the most relevant variable for both parks and taxonomic classes. Topographic variables (i.e., slope and altitude) were the second most predictive variables, followed by climatic variables. Differences in variable contribution were observed between parks and taxonomic classes. Variables related to water availability had the larger contribution to the models in the Mediterranean park, while topography variables were decisive in the Atlantic park. Specific response curves to environmental variables were in accordance with the biogeographic affinity of species (Mediterranean and non-Mediterranean species) and taxonomy (amphibians and reptiles). Interestingly, these results were observed for species located in both parks, particularly those situated at their range limits. Our findings show that ecological niche models built at local scale reveal differences in habitat preferences within a wide environmental gradient. Therefore, modelling at local scales rather than assuming large-scale models could be preferable for the establishment of conservation strategies for herptile species in natural parks. PMID

  20. Climatic niche conservatism and biogeographical non-equilibrium in Eschscholzia californica (Papaveraceae), an invasive plant in the Chilean Mediterranean region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peña-Gómez, Francisco T; Guerrero, Pablo C; Bizama, Gustavo; Duarte, Milén; Bustamante, Ramiro O

    2014-01-01

    Species climate requirements are useful for predicting their geographic distribution. It is often assumed that the niche requirements for invasive plants are conserved during invasion, especially when the invaded regions share similar climate conditions. California and central Chile have a remarkable degree of convergence in their vegetation structure, and a similar Mediterranean climate. Such similarities make these geographic areas an interesting natural experiment for testing climatic niche dynamics and the equilibrium of invasive species in a new environment. We tested to see if the climatic niche of Eschscholzia californica is conserved in the invaded range (central Chile), and we assessed whether the invasion process has reached a biogeographical equilibrium, i.e., occupy all the suitable geographic locations that have suitable conditions under native niche requirements. We compared the climatic niche in the native and invaded ranges as well as the projected potential geographic distribution in the invaded range. In order to compare climatic niches, we conducted a Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Species Distribution Models (SDMs), to estimate E. californica's potential geographic distribution. We also used SDMs to predict altitudinal distribution limits in central Chile. Our results indicated that the climatic niche occupied by E. californica in the invaded range is firmly conserved, occupying a subset of the native climatic niche but leaving a substantial fraction of it unfilled. Comparisons of projected SDMs for central Chile indicate a similarity, yet the projection from native range predicted a larger geographic distribution in central Chile compared to the prediction of the model constructed for central Chile. The projected niche occupancy profile from California predicted a higher mean elevation than that projected from central Chile. We concluded that the invasion process of E. californica in central Chile is consistent with climatic niche

  1. Evaluating transport in the WRF model along the California coast

    OpenAIRE

    C. E. Yver; H. D. Graven; D. D. Lucas; P. J. Cameron-Smith; R. F. Keeling; R. F. Weiss

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a step in the development of a top-down method to complement the bottom-up inventories of halocarbon emissions in California using high frequency observations, forward simulations and inverse methods. The Scripps Institution of Oceanography high-frequency atmospheric halocarbons measurement sites are located along the California coast and therefore the evaluation of transport in the chosen Weather Research Forecast (WRF) model at these sites is crucial fo...

  2. Evaluating transport in the WRF model along the California coast

    OpenAIRE

    C. Yver; H. Graven; D. D. Lucas; P. Cameron-Smith; R. Keeling; R. Weiss

    2012-01-01

    This paper presents a step in the development of a top-down method to complement the bottom-up inventories of halocarbon emissions in California using high frequency observations, forward simulations and inverse methods. The Scripps Institution of Oceanography high-frequency atmospheric halocarbon measurement sites are located along the California coast and therefore the evaluation of transport in the chosen Weather Research Forecast (WRF) model at these sites is crucial for inverse mo...

  3. Inferring the past and present connectivity across the range of a North American leaf beetle: combining ecological niche modeling and a geographically explicit model of coalescence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dellicour, Simon; Fearnley, Shannon; Lombal, Anicée; Heidl, Sarah; Dahlhoff, Elizabeth P; Rank, Nathan E; Mardulyn, Patrick

    2014-08-01

    The leaf beetle Chrysomela aeneicollis occurs across Western North America, either at high elevation or in small, isolated populations along the coast, and thus has a highly fragmented distribution. DNA sequence data (three loci) were collected from five regions across the species range. Population connectivity was examined using traditional ecological niche modeling, which suggested that gene flow could occur among regions now and in the past. We developed geographically explicit coalescence models of sequence evolution that incorporated a two-dimensional representation of the hypothesized ranges suggested by the niche-modeling estimates. We simulated sequence data according to these models and compared them to observed sequences to identify most probable scenarios regarding the migration history of C. aeneicollis. Our results disagreed with initial niche-modeling estimates by clearly rejecting recent connectivity among regions, and were instead most consistent with a long period of range fragmentation, extending well beyond the last glacial maximum. This application of geographically explicit models of coalescence has highlighted some limitations of the use of climatic variables for predicting the present and past range of a species and has explained aspects of the Pleistocene evolutionary history of a cold-adapted organism in Western North America. © 2014 The Author(s). Evolution © 2014 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

  4. Chick embryo xenograft model reveals a novel perineural niche for human adipose-derived stromal cells

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ingrid R. Cordeiro

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Human adipose-derived stromal cells (hADSC are a heterogeneous cell population that contains adult multipotent stem cells. Although it is well established that hADSC have skeletal potential in vivo in adult organisms, in vitro assays suggest further differentiation capacity, such as into glia. Thus, we propose that grafting hADSC into the embryo can provide them with a much more instructive microenvironment, allowing the human cells to adopt diverse fates or niches. Here, hADSC spheroids were grafted into either the presumptive presomitic mesoderm or the first branchial arch (BA1 regions of chick embryos. Cells were identified without previous manipulations via human-specific Alu probes, which allows efficient long-term tracing of heterogeneous primary cultures. When grafted into the trunk, in contrast to previous studies, hADSC were not found in chondrogenic or osteogenic territories up to E8. Surprisingly, 82.5% of the hADSC were associated with HNK1+ tissues, such as peripheral nerves. Human skin fibroblasts showed a smaller tropism for nerves. In line with other studies, hADSC also adopted perivascular locations. When grafted into the presumptive BA1, 74.6% of the cells were in the outflow tract, the final goal of cardiac neural crest cells, and were also associated with peripheral nerves. This is the first study showing that hADSC could adopt a perineural niche in vivo and were able to recognize cues for neural crest cell migration of the host. Therefore, we propose that xenografts of human cells into chick embryos can reveal novel behaviors of heterogeneous cell populations, such as response to migration cues.

  5. Innovative business models within niche tourist markets: shared identity, authenticity and flexibile networks. The case of three italian SMEs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Federica Montaguti

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Innovative business models within niche tourist markets: shared identity, authenticity and flexibile networks. The case of three italian SMEs The evolution of business models is a crucial challenge for tourism companies, which should understand how they can stimulate their creativity and introduce innovation. However for many firms, in particular for SMEs, this process is not so easy to be adopted. Even more difficult it is to understand how the business model should change to be successful in solving what appears to be one of the main problems for SMEs, especially within mature, tourist destinations, i.e. targeting new profitable segments. The paper discusses the main findings of a research project carried out by the authors about changes in the business models of Italian tourism companies, underlining in particular three case-studies of interest in terms of the innovation put in place and that relate to SMEs. The analysis, based on the business model canvas, the value constellation and the storytelling, found out that these three firms are flexible companies that have characteristics emblematic of the knowledge and information economy business models. They successfully answer the needs of specific niches, finding new opportunities within a mature tourism market and famous destinations, thanks to their ability to develop wide flexible networks, where customers are an active part, and thanks to the value proposed to the clients, centred on the idea of a shared identity between the clients and the company’s founders and of an authenticity guaranteed by the life story of the founders themselves.

  6. Using Geographic Information System-based Ecologic Niche Models to Forecast the Risk of Hantavirus Infection in Shandong Province, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, Lan; Qian, Quan; Wang, Zhi-Qiang; Glass, Gregory E.; Song, Shao-Xia; Zhang, Wen-Yi; Li, Xiu-Jun; Yang, Hong; Wang, Xian-Jun; Fang, Li-Qun; Cao, Wu-Chun

    2011-01-01

    Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is an important public health problem in Shandong Province, China. In this study, we combined ecologic niche modeling with geographic information systems (GIS) and remote sensing techniques to identify the risk factors and affected areas of hantavirus infections in rodent hosts. Land cover and elevation were found to be closely associated with the presence of hantavirus-infected rodent hosts. The averaged area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.864, implying good performance. The predicted risk maps based on the model were validated both by the hantavirus-infected rodents' distribution and HFRS human case localities with a good fit. These findings have the applications for targeting control and prevention efforts. PMID:21363991

  7. Niche evolution and adaptive radiation: Testing the order of trait divergence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ackerly, D.D.; Schwilk, D.W.; Webb, C.O.

    2006-01-01

    In the course of an adaptive radiation, the evolution of niche parameters is of particular interest for understanding modes of speciation and the consequences for coexistence of related species within communities. We pose a general question: In the course of an evolutionary radiation, do traits related to within-community niche differences (?? niche) evolve before or after differentiation of macrohabitat affinity or climatic tolerances (?? niche)? Here we introduce a new test to address this question, based on a modification of the method of independent contrasts. The divergence order test (DOT) is based on the average age of the nodes on a tree, weighted by the absolute magnitude of the contrast at each node for a particular trait. The comparison of these weighted averages reveals whether large divergences for one trait have occurred earlier or later in the course of diversification, relative to a second trait; significance is determined by bootstrapping from maximum-likelihood ancestral state reconstructions. The method is applied to the evolution of Ceanothus, a woody plant group in California, in which co-occurring species exhibit significant differences in a key leaf trait (specific leaf area) associated with contrasting physiological and life history strategies. Co-occurring species differ more for this trait than expected under a null model of community assembly. This ?? niche difference evolved early in the divergence of two major subclades within Ceanothus, whereas climatic distributions (?? niche traits) diversified later within each of the subclades. However, rapid evolution of climate parameters makes inferences of early divergence events highly uncertain, and differentiation of the ?? niche might have taken place throughout the evolution of the group, without leaving a clear phylogenetic signal. Similar patterns observed in several plant and animal groups suggest that early divergence of ?? niche traits might be a common feature of niche evolution in

  8. Effects of global changes on the climatic niche of the tick Ixodes ricinus inferred by species distribution modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Porretta, Daniele; Mastrantonio, Valentina; Amendolia, Sara; Gaiarsa, Stefano; Epis, Sara; Genchi, Claudio; Bandi, Claudio; Otranto, Domenico; Urbanelli, Sandra

    2013-09-19

    Global climate change can seriously impact on the epidemiological dynamics of vector-borne diseases. In this study we investigated how future climatic changes could affect the climatic niche of Ixodes ricinus (Acari, Ixodida), among the most important vectors of pathogens of medical and veterinary concern in Europe. Species Distribution Modelling (SDM) was used to reconstruct the climatic niche of I. ricinus, and to project it into the future conditions for 2050 and 2080, under two scenarios: a continuous human demographic growth and a severe increase of gas emissions (scenario A2), and a scenario that proposes lower human demographic growth than A2, and a more sustainable gas emissions (scenario B2). Models were reconstructed using the algorithm of "maximum entropy", as implemented in the software Maxent 3.3.3e; 4,544 occurrence points and 15 bioclimatic variables were used. In both scenarios an increase of climatic niche of about two times greater than the current area was predicted as well as a higher climatic suitability under the scenario B2 than A2. Such an increase occurred both in a latitudinal and longitudinal way, including northern Eurasian regions (e.g. Sweden and Russia), that were previously unsuitable for the species. Our models are congruent with the predictions of range expansion already observed in I. ricinus at a regional scale and provide a qualitative and quantitative assessment of the future climatically suitable areas for I. ricinus at a continental scale. Although the use of SDM at a higher resolution should be integrated by a more refined analysis of further abiotic and biotic data, the results presented here suggest that under future climatic scenarios most of the current distribution area of I. ricinus could remain suitable and significantly increase at a continental geographic scale. Therefore disease outbreaks of pathogens transmitted by this tick species could emerge in previous non-endemic geographic areas. Further studies will

  9. Using niche-based modelling to assess the impact of climate change on tree functional diversity in Europe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thuiller, Wilfried; Lavorel, Sandra; Sykes, Martin T.

    2006-01-01

    Rapid anthropogenic climate change is already affecting species distributions and ecosystem functioning worldwide. We applied niche-based models to analyse the impact of climate change on tree species and functional diversity in Europe. Present-day climate was used to predict the distributions...... of 122 tree species from different functional types (FT). We then explored projections of future distributions under one climate scenario for 2080, considering two alternative dispersal assumptions: no dispersal and unlimited dispersal. The species-rich broadleaved deciduous group appeared to play a key...... role in the future of different European regions. Temperate areas were projected to lose both species richness and functional diversity due to the loss of broadleaved deciduous trees. These were projected to migrate to boreal forests, thereby increasing their species richness and functional diversity...

  10. Potential for spread of the white-nose fungus (Pseudogymnoascus destructans) in the Americas: use of Maxent and NicheA to assure strict model transference.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Escobar, Luis E; Lira-Noriega, Andrés; Medina-Vogel, Gonzalo; Townsend Peterson, A

    2014-11-01

    Emerging infectious diseases can present serious threats to wildlife, even to the point of causing extinction. Whitenose fungus (Pseudogymnoascus destructans) is causing an epizootic in bats that is expanding rapidly, both geographically and taxonomically. Little is known of the ecology and distributional potential of this intercontinental pathogen. We address this gap via ecological niche models that characterise coarse resolution niche differences between fungus populations on different continents, identifying areas potentially vulnerable to infection in South America. Here we explore a novel approach to identifying areas of potential distribution across novel geographic regions that avoids perilious extrapolation into novel environments. European and North American fungus populations show differential use of environmental space, but rather than niche differentiation, we find that changes are best attributed to climatic differences between the two continents. Suitable areas for spread of the pathogen were identified across southern South America; however caution should be taken to avoid underestimating the potential for spread of this pathogen in South America.

  11. ECOLOGICAL NICHE MODELING AND WILDLIFE MANAGEMENT UNITS (UMAS: AN APPLICATION TO DEER IN CAMPECHE, MÉXICO

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tania Escalante

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available The Units for the Conservation, Management and Sustainable Use of Wildlife (UMAs are instruments of conservation and management of specific species in Mexico. UMAs represent in southeastern Mexico an important way for deer management, but they have major problems related to the monitoring of species. In this paper, we propose a methodology based on the use of a ‘niche centroid approach’ for estimating ecological distances to the niche centroid in order to produce distribution maps containing information on the potential relative abundance of species to evaluate the capability of UMAs to maintain populations of deers. We modeled the abundance for Mazama temama, M. pandora and Odocoileus virginianus on the state of Campeche, Mexico. Our predictions of areas with most abundance of deer coincided with reports from literature. We identified the UMAs “Ik Balam” and “Ejido Carlos Cano Cruz” as areas with high proportion of suitable environment, while UMAs “Betito y Lupita”, “El Huanal”, “Puh”, “Refugio faunístico Jalotum”, “Ría Lagartos-Ría Celestun” and “Yocol Cab Balam” have not environmental conditions adequate to maintain deer populations. Although this is a preliminary study, it can be a starting point to establish institutional standards for the management of species.

  12. From California dreaming to California data: Challenging historic models for landfill CH4 emissions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kurt Spokas

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Improved quantification of diverse CH4 sources at the urban scale is needed to guide local GHG mitigation strategies in the Anthropocene. Herein, we focus on landfill CH4 emissions in California, challenging the current IPCC methodology which focuses on a climate dependency for landfill CH4 generation (methanogenesis, but does not explicitly consider climate or soil dependencies for emissions. Relying on a comprehensive California landfill database, a field-validated process-based model for landfill CH4 emissions (CALMIM, and select field measurements at 10 California sites with a variety of methods, we support the contrary position: Limited climate dependency for methanogenesis, but strong climate dependency for landfill CH4 emissions. Contrary to the historic IPCC empirical model for methanogenesis with kinetic constants related to climate, we demonstrate a simpler and more robust linear empirical relationship (r2 = 0.85; n=128 between waste mass and landfill biogas recovery [126 × 10-6 Nm3 CH4 hr-1 Mgwaste-1]. More interestingly, there are no statistically significant relationships with climate, site age, or status (open/closed for landfill biogas recovery. The current IPCC methodology does not consider soil or climate drivers for gaseous transport or seasonal methanotrophy in different cover soils. On the other hand, we illustrate strong climate and soil dependencies for landfill emissions—e.g., average intermediate cover emissions below 20 g CH4 m-2 d-1 when the site’s mean annual precipitation is >500 mm y-1. Thereby, for the California landfill CH4 inventory, the highest-emitting sites shift from landfills containing the largest mass of waste to sites dominated by intermediate cover types having a reduced rate of soil CH4 oxidation during the annual cycle. These differences have profound implications for developing more realistic, science-based urban and regional scale GHG inventories for landfill CH4 while reducing

  13. Single-cell and coupled GRN models of cell patterning in the Arabidopsis thaliana root stem cell niche

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alvarez-Buylla Elena R

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Recent experimental work has uncovered some of the genetic components required to maintain the Arabidopsis thaliana root stem cell niche (SCN and its structure. Two main pathways are involved. One pathway depends on the genes SHORTROOT and SCARECROW and the other depends on the PLETHORA genes, which have been proposed to constitute the auxin readouts. Recent evidence suggests that a regulatory circuit, composed of WOX5 and CLE40, also contributes to the SCN maintenance. Yet, we still do not understand how the niche is dynamically maintained and patterned or if the uncovered molecular components are sufficient to recover the observed gene expression configurations that characterize the cell types within the root SCN. Mathematical and computational tools have proven useful in understanding the dynamics of cell differentiation. Hence, to further explore root SCN patterning, we integrated available experimental data into dynamic Gene Regulatory Network (GRN models and addressed if these are sufficient to attain observed gene expression configurations in the root SCN in a robust and autonomous manner. Results We found that an SCN GRN model based only on experimental data did not reproduce the configurations observed within the root SCN. We developed several alternative GRN models that recover these expected stable gene configurations. Such models incorporate a few additional components and interactions in addition to those that have been uncovered. The recovered configurations are stable to perturbations, and the models are able to recover the observed gene expression profiles of almost all the mutants described so far. However, the robustness of the postulated GRNs is not as high as that of other previously studied networks. Conclusions These models are the first published approximations for a dynamic mechanism of the A. thaliana root SCN cellular pattering. Our model is useful to formally show that the data now available are not

  14. Spatial distributions of niche-constructing populations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaozhuo Han

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Niche construction theory regards organisms not only as the object of natural selection but also an active subject that can change their own selective pressure through eco-evolutionary feedbacks. Through reviewing the existing works on the theoretical models of niche construction, here we present the progress made on how niche construction influences genetic structure of spatially structured populations and the spatial-temporal dynamics of metapopulations, with special focuses on mathematical models and simulation methods. The majority of results confirmed that niche construction can significantly alter the evolutionary trajectories of structured populations. Organism-environmental interactions induced by niche construction can have profound influence on the dynamics, competition and diversity of metapopulations. It can affect fine-scale spatially distribution of species and spatial heterogeneity of the environment. We further propose a few research directions with potentials, such as applying adaptive dynamics or spatial game theory to explore the effect of niche construction on phenotypic evolution and diversification.

  15. Modeling of the ecological niches of the anopheles spp in Ecuador by the use of geo-informatic tools.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Padilla, Oswaldo; Rosas, Pablo; Moreno, Wilson; Toulkeridis, Theofilos

    2017-06-01

    Ecuador in the northwestern edge of South America is struggling by vector-borne diseases with an endemic-epidemic behavior leading to an enormous public health problem. Malaria, which has a cyclicality in its dynamics, is closely related to climatic, ecological and socio-economic phenomena. The main objective of this research has been to compare three different prediction species models, the so-called Maxent, logistic regression and multi criteria evaluation with fuzzy logic, in order to determine the model which best describes the ecological niche of the Anopheles spp species, which transmits malaria within Ecuador. After performing a detailed data collection and data processing, we applied the mentioned models and validated them with a statistical analysis in order to discover that the Maxent model has been the model that best defines the distribution of Anopheles spp within the territory. The determined sites, which are of high strategic value and important for the increasing national development, will now be able to initiate preventive countermeasures based on this study. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Niche modeling predictions of the potential distribution of Marmota himalayana, the host animal of plague in Yushu County of Qinghai

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liang Lu

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background After the earthquake on 14, April 2010 at Yushu in China, a plague epidemic hosted by Himalayan marmot (Marmota himalayana became a major public health concern during the reconstruction period. A rapid assessment of the distribution of Himalayan marmot in the area was urgent. The aims of this study were to analyze the relationship between environmental factors and the distribution of burrow systems of the marmot and to predict the distribution of marmots. Methods Two types of marmot burrows (hibernation and temporary in Yushu County were investigated from June to September in 2011. The location of every burrow was recorded with a global positioning system receiver. An ecological niche model was used to determine the relationship between the burrow occurrence data and environmental variables, such as land surface temperature (LST in winter and summer, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI in winter and summer, elevation, and soil type. The predictive accuracies of the models were assessed by the area under the curve of the receiving operator curve. Results The models for hibernation and temporary burrows both performed well. The contribution orders of the variables were LST in winter and soil type, NDVI in winter and elevation for the hibernation burrow model, and LST in summer, NDVI in summer, soil type and elevation in the temporary burrow model. There were non-linear relationships between the probability of burrow presence and LST, NDVI and elevation. LST of 14 and 23 °C, NDVI of 0.22 and 0.60, and 4100 m were inflection points. A substantially higher probability of burrow presence was observed in swamp soil and dark felty soil than in other soil types. The potential area for hibernation burrows was 5696 km2 (37.7 % of Yushu County, and the area for temporary burrows was 7711 km2 (51.0 % of Yushu County. Conclusions The results suggested that marmots preferred warm areas with relatively low altitudes and good

  17. Northern glacial refugia and altitudinal niche divergence shape genome-wide differentiation in the emerging plant model Arabidopsis arenosa

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Kolář, Filip; Fuxová, G.; Záveská, E.; Nagano, A. J.; Hyklová, L.; Lučanová, Magdalena; Kudoh, H.; Marhold, K.

    2016-01-01

    Roč. 25, č. 16 (2016), s. 3929-3949 ISSN 0962-1083 Institutional support: RVO:67985939 Keywords : approximate Bayesian computatuion * niche differentiation * phytogeography * Arabidopsis Subject RIV: EF - Botanics Impact factor: 6.086, year: 2016

  18. A Statistical Graphical Model of the California Reservoir System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taeb, A.; Reager, J. T.; Turmon, M.; Chandrasekaran, V.

    2017-11-01

    The recent California drought has highlighted the potential vulnerability of the state's water management infrastructure to multiyear dry intervals. Due to the high complexity of the network, dynamic storage changes in California reservoirs on a state-wide scale have previously been difficult to model using either traditional statistical or physical approaches. Indeed, although there is a significant line of research on exploring models for single (or a small number of) reservoirs, these approaches are not amenable to a system-wide modeling of the California reservoir network due to the spatial and hydrological heterogeneities of the system. In this work, we develop a state-wide statistical graphical model to characterize the dependencies among a collection of 55 major California reservoirs across the state; this model is defined with respect to a graph in which the nodes index reservoirs and the edges specify the relationships or dependencies between reservoirs. We obtain and validate this model in a data-driven manner based on reservoir volumes over the period 2003-2016. A key feature of our framework is a quantification of the effects of external phenomena that influence the entire reservoir network. We further characterize the degree to which physical factors (e.g., state-wide Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), average temperature, snow pack) and economic factors (e.g., consumer price index, number of agricultural workers) explain these external influences. As a consequence of this analysis, we obtain a system-wide health diagnosis of the reservoir network as a function of PDSI.

  19. Utilizing individual fish biomass and relative abundance models to map environmental niche associations of adult and juvenile targeted fishes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galaiduk, Ronen; Radford, Ben T; Harvey, Euan S

    2018-06-21

    Many fishes undergo ontogenetic habitat shifts to meet their energy and resource needs as they grow. Habitat resource partitioning and patterns of habitat connectivity between conspecific fishes at different life-history stages is a significant knowledge gap. Species distribution models were used to examine patterns in the relative abundance, individual biomass estimates and environmental niche associations of different life stages of three iconic West Australian fishes. Continuous predictive maps describing the spatial distribution of abundance and individual biomass of the study species were created as well predictive hotspot maps that identify possible areas for aggregation of individuals of similar life stages of multiple species (i.e. spawning grounds, fisheries refugia or nursery areas). The models and maps indicate that processes driving the abundance patterns could be different from the body size associated demographic processes throughout an individual's life cycle. Incorporating life-history in the spatially explicit management plans can ensure that critical habitat of the vulnerable stages (e.g. juvenile fish, spawning stock) is included within proposed protected areas and can enhance connectivity between various functional areas (e.g. nursery areas and adult populations) which, in turn, can improve the abundance of targeted species as well as other fish species relying on healthy ecosystem functioning.

  20. Reconstitution of bone-like matrix in osteogenically differentiated mesenchymal stem cell–collagen constructs: A three-dimensional in vitro model to study hematopoietic stem cell niche

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    WY Lai

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Mesenchymal stem/stromal cells (MSCs and osteoblasts are important niche cells for hematopoietic stem cells (HSCs in bone marrow osteoblastic niche. Here, we aim to partially reconstitute the bone marrow HSC niche in vitro using collagen microencapsulation for investigation of the interactions between HSCs and MSCs. Mouse MSCs (mMSCs microencapsulated in collagen were osteogenically differentiated to derive a bone-like matrix consisting of osteocalcin, osteopontin, and calcium deposits and secreted bone morphogenic protein 2 (BMP2. Decellularized bone-like matrix was seeded with fluorescence-labeled human MSCs and HSCs. Comparing with pure collagen scaffold, significantly more HSCs and HSC–MSC pairs per unit area were found in the decellularized bone-like matrix. Moreover, incubation with excess neutralizing antibody of BMP2 resulted in a significantly higher number of HSC per unit area than that without in the decellularized matrix. This work suggests that the osteogenic differentiated MSC–collagen microsphere is a valuable three-dimensional in vitro model to elucidate cell–cell and cell–matrix interactions in HSC niche.

  1. Assessing the Global Risk of Establishment of Cydia pomonella (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae) using CLIMEX and MaxEnt Niche Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, Sunil; Neven, Lisa G; Zhu, Hongyu; Zhang, Runzhi

    2015-08-01

    Accurate assessment of insect pest establishment risk is needed by national plant protection organizations to negotiate international trade of horticultural commodities that can potentially carry the pests and result in inadvertent introductions in the importing countries. We used mechanistic and correlative niche models to quantify and map the global patterns of the potential for establishment of codling moth (Cydia pomonella L.), a major pest of apples, peaches, pears, and other pome and stone fruits, and a quarantine pest in countries where it currently does not occur. The mechanistic model CLIMEX was calibrated using species-specific physiological tolerance thresholds, whereas the correlative model MaxEnt used species occurrences and climatic spatial data. Projected potential distribution from both models conformed well to the current known distribution of codling moth. None of the models predicted suitable environmental conditions in countries located between 20°N and 20°S potentially because of shorter photoperiod, and lack of chilling requirement (Japan where codling moth currently does not occur but where its preferred host species (i.e., apple) is present. Average annual temperature and latitude were the main environmental variables associated with codling moth distribution at global level. The predictive models developed in this study present the global risk of establishment of codling moth, and can be used for monitoring potential introductions of codling moth in different countries and by policy makers and trade negotiators in making science-based decisions. © The Authors 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  2. Monterey, California Coastal Digital Elevation Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — NOAA's National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) is building high-resolution digital elevation models (DEMs) for select U.S. coastal regions. These integrated...

  3. Santa Barbara, California Coastal Digital Elevation Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — NOAA's National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) is building high-resolution digital elevation models (DEMs) for select U.S. coastal regions. These integrated...

  4. Arena Cove, California Coastal Digital Elevation Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — NOAA's National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) is building high-resolution digital elevation models (DEMs) for select U.S. coastal regions. These integrated...

  5. Spatial Heterogeneity of Habitat Suitability for Rift Valley Fever Occurrence in Tanzania: An Ecological Niche Modelling Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sindato, Calvin; Stevens, Kim B.; Karimuribo, Esron D.; Mboera, Leonard E. G.; Paweska, Janusz T.; Pfeiffer, Dirk U.

    2016-01-01

    Background Despite the long history of Rift Valley fever (RVF) in Tanzania, extent of its suitable habitat in the country remains unclear. In this study we investigated potential effects of temperature, precipitation, elevation, soil type, livestock density, rainfall pattern, proximity to wild animals, protected areas and forest on the habitat suitability for RVF occurrence in Tanzania. Materials and Methods Presence-only records of 193 RVF outbreak locations from 1930 to 2007 together with potential predictor variables were used to model and map the suitable habitats for RVF occurrence using ecological niche modelling. Ground-truthing of the model outputs was conducted by comparing the levels of RVF virus specific antibodies in cattle, sheep and goats sampled from locations in Tanzania that presented different predicted habitat suitability values. Principal Findings Habitat suitability values for RVF occurrence were higher in the northern and central-eastern regions of Tanzania than the rest of the regions in the country. Soil type and precipitation of the wettest quarter contributed equally to habitat suitability (32.4% each), followed by livestock density (25.9%) and rainfall pattern (9.3%). Ground-truthing of model outputs revealed that the odds of an animal being seropositive for RVFV when sampled from areas predicted to be most suitable for RVF occurrence were twice the odds of an animal sampled from areas least suitable for RVF occurrence (95% CI: 1.43, 2.76, p < 0.001). Conclusion/Significance The regions in the northern and central-eastern Tanzania were more suitable for RVF occurrence than the rest of the regions in the country. The modelled suitable habitat is characterised by impermeable soils, moderate precipitation in the wettest quarter, high livestock density and a bimodal rainfall pattern. The findings of this study should provide guidance for the design of appropriate RVF surveillance, prevention and control strategies which target areas with

  6. Using environmental niche modeling to find suitable habitats for the Hard-ground Barasingha in Madhya Pradesh, India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. P. Singh

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The subspecies of Swamp Deer, the Hard-ground Barasingha (Rucervus duvaucelii branderi Pocock, is presently found only in Kanha Tiger Reserve (KTR in Madhya Pradesh, India. This subspecies is highly vulnerable to extinction, and reintroduction in suitable sites is the need of the hour.  Environmental niche models (GARP, SVM, ED, CSM aimed at providing a detailed prediction of species distribution by relating presence of species to 19 bioclimatic indices were developed, using swamp deer occurrence records in KTR. The predictions were appropriately weighted with the prevailing LU/LC classes to identify suitable habitats in Madhya Pradesh, India. The result shows that the southern region of Madhya Pradesh is suitable for the sustenance of Barasingha with varying degrees of habitability. Vicarious validation shows that most of these forest areas were the same as that of historical records dating back to 50 years. However, land use maps can help identify areas where this subspecies can be reintroduced. 

  7. Inhibition of WNT signaling in the bone marrow niche prevents the development of MDS in the Apcdel/+ MDS mouse model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stoddart, Angela; Wang, Jianghong; Hu, Chunmei; Fernald, Anthony A; Davis, Elizabeth M; Cheng, Jason X; Le Beau, Michelle M

    2017-06-01

    There is accumulating evidence that functional alteration(s) of the bone marrow (BM) microenvironment contribute to the development of some myeloid disorders, such as myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS) and acute myeloid leukemia (AML). In addition to a cell-intrinsic role of WNT activation in leukemia stem cells, WNT activation in the BM niche is also thought to contribute to the pathogenesis of MDS and AML. We previously showed that the Apc -haploinsufficient mice ( Apc del/+ ) model MDS induced by an aberrant BM microenvironment. We sought to determine whether Apc, a multifunctional protein and key negative regulator of the canonical β-catenin (Ctnnb1)/WNT-signaling pathway, mediates this disease through modulating WNT signaling, and whether inhibition of WNT signaling prevents the development of MDS in Apc del/+ mice. Here, we demonstrate that loss of 1 copy of Ctnnb1 is sufficient to prevent the development of MDS in Apc del/+ mice and that altered canonical WNT signaling in the microenvironment is responsible for the disease. Furthermore, the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA)-approved drug pyrvinium delays and/or inhibits disease in Apc del /+ mice, even when it is administered after the presentation of anemia. Other groups have observed increased nuclear CTNNB1 in stromal cells from a high frequency of MDS/AML patients, a finding that together with our results highlights a potential new strategy for treating some myeloid disorders. © 2017 by The American Society of Hematology.

  8. Molecular data and ecological niche modelling reveal a highly dynamic evolutionary history of the East Asian Tertiary relict Cercidiphyllum (Cercidiphyllaceae).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qi, Xin-Shuai; Chen, Chen; Comes, Hans Peter; Sakaguchi, Shota; Liu, Yi-Hui; Tanaka, Nobuyuki; Sakio, Hitoshi; Qiu, Ying-Xiong

    2012-10-01

    East Asia's temperate deciduous forests served as sanctuary for Tertiary relict trees, but their ages and response to past climate change remain largely unknown. To address this issue, we elucidated the evolutionary and population demographic history of Cercdiphyllum, comprising species in China/Japan (Cercdiphyllum japonicum) and central Japan (Cercdiphyllum magnificum). Fifty-three populations were genotyped using chloroplast and ribosomal DNA sequences and microsatellite loci to assess molecular structure and diversity in relation to past (Last Glacial Maximum) and present distributions based on ecological niche modelling. Late Tertiary climate cooling was reflected in a relatively recent speciation event, dated at the Mio-/Pliocene boundary. During glacials, the warm-temperate C. japonicum experienced massive habitat losses in some areas (north-central China/north Japan) but increases in others (southwest/-east China, East China Sea landbridge, south Japan). In China, the Sichuan Basin and/or the middle-Yangtze were source areas of postglacial northward recolonization; in Japan, this may have been facilitated through introgressive hybridization with the cool-temperate C. magnificum. Our findings challenge the notion of relative evolutionary and demographic stability of Tertiary relict trees, and may serve as a guideline for assessing the impact of Neogene climate change on the evolution and distribution of East Asian temperate plants. © 2012 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2012 New Phytologist Trust.

  9. Ecological niche model of Phlebotomus perniciosus, the main vector of canine leishmaniasis in north-eastern Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manuela Signorini

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available With respect to the epidemiology of leishmaniasis, it is crucial to take into account the ecoclimatic and environ- mental characteristics that influence the distribution patterns of the vector sand fly species. It is also important to consider the possible impact of on-going climate changes on the emergence of this disease. In order to map the potential distribu- tion of Phlebotomus perniciosus, the main vector species of canine leishmaniasis in north-eastern Italy, geographical information systems tools, ecological niche models (ENM and remotely sensed environmental data were applied for a retrospective analysis of an entomological survey conducted in north-eastern Italy over 12 years. Sand fly trapping was conducted from 2001 to 2012 in 175 sites in the provinces of Veneto, Friuli-Venezia Giulia and Trentino-Alto Adige. We developed a predictive model of potential distribution of P. perniciosus using the maximum entropy algorithm software, based on seasonal normalized difference vegetation index, day and night land surface temperature, the Corine land cover 2006, a digital elevation model (GTOPO30 and climate layers obtained from the WorldClim database. The MaxEnt pre- diction found the more suitable habitat for P. perniciosus to be hilly areas (100-300 m above the mean sea level charac- terised by temperate climate during the winter and summer seasons, high winter vegetation cover and moderate rainfall during the activity season of vector sand fly. ENM provided a greater understanding of the geographical distribution and ecological requirements of P. perniciosus in the study area, which can be applied for the development of future surveil- lance strategies.

  10. Model outputs - Developing end-to-end models of the Gulf of California

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The purpose of this project is to develop spatially discrete end-to-end models of the northern Gulf of California, linking oceanography, biogeochemistry, food web...

  11. Atlantis model outputs - Developing end-to-end models of the California Current Large Marine Ecosystem

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The purpose of this project is to develop spatially discrete end-to-end models of the California Current LME, linking oceanography, biogeochemistry, food web...

  12. Ecological niche of plant pathogens

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ecaterina Fodor

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Disease ecology is a new approach to the understanding of the spread and dynamics of pathogens in natural and man-made environments. Defining and describing the ecological niche of the pathogens is one of the major tasks for ecological theory, as well as for practitioners preoccupied with the control and forecasting of established and emerging diseases. Niche theory has been periodically revised, not including in an explicit way the pathogens. However, many progresses have been achieved in niche modeling of disease spread, but few attempts were made to construct a theoretical frame for the ecological niche of pathogens. The paper is a review of the knowledge accumulated during last decades in the niche theory of pathogens and proposes an ecological approach in research. It quest for new control methods in what concerns forest plant pathogens, with a special emphasis on fungi like organisms of the genus Phytophthora. Species of Phytophthora are the most successful plant pathogens of the moment, affecting forest and agricultural systems worldwide, many of them being invasive alien organisms in many ecosystems. The hyperspace of their ecological niche is defined by hosts, environment and human interference, as main axes. To select most important variables within the hyperspace, is important the understanding of the complex role of pathogens in the ecosystems as well as for control programs. Biotic relationships within ecosystem of host-pathogen couple are depicted by ecological network and specific metrics attached to this. The star shaped network is characterized by few high degree nodes, by short path lengths and relatively low connectivity, premises for a rapid disturbance spread. 

  13. Ecological niche of plant pathogens

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ecaterina Fodor

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available Disease ecology is a new approach to the understanding of the spread and dynamics of pathogens in natural and man-made environments. Defining and describing the ecological niche of the pathogens is one of the major tasks for ecological theory, as well as for practitioners preoccupied with the control and forecasting of established and emerging diseases. Niche theory has been periodically revised, not including in an explicit way the pathogens. However, many progresses have been achieved in niche modeling of disease spread, but few attempts were made to construct a theoretical frame for the ecological niche of pathogens. The paper is a review of the knowledge accumulated during last decades in the niche theory of pathogens and proposes an ecological approach in research. It quest for new control methods in what concerns forest plant pathogens, with a special emphasis on fungi like organisms of the genus Phytophthora. Species of Phytophthora are the most successful plant pathogens of the moment, affecting forest and agricultural systems worldwide, many of them being invasive alien organisms in many ecosystems. The hyperspace of their ecological niche is defined by hosts, environment and human interference, as main axes. To select most important variables within the hyperspace, is important for the understanding of the complex role of pathogens in the ecosystems as well as for control programs. Biotic relationships within ecosystem of host-pathogen couple are depicted by ecological network and specific metrics attached to this. The star shaped network is characterized by few high degree nodes, by short path lengths and relatively low connectivity, premises for a rapid disturbance spread.

  14. Evaluating transport in the WRF model along the California coast

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. E. Yver

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a step in the development of a top-down method to complement the bottom-up inventories of halocarbon emissions in California using high frequency observations, forward simulations and inverse methods. The Scripps Institution of Oceanography high-frequency atmospheric halocarbons measurement sites are located along the California coast and therefore the evaluation of transport in the chosen Weather Research Forecast (WRF model at these sites is crucial for inverse modeling. The performance of the transport model has been investigated by comparing the wind direction and speed and temperature at four locations using aircraft weather reports as well at all METAR weather stations in our domain for hourly variations. Different planetary boundary layer (PBL schemes, horizontal resolutions (achieved through nesting and two meteorological datasets have been tested. Finally, simulated concentration of an inert tracer has been briefly investigated. All the PBL schemes present similar results that generally agree with observations, except in summer when the model sea breeze is too strong. At the coarse 12 km resolution, using ERA-interim (ECMWF Re-Analysis as initial and boundary conditions leads to improvements compared to using the North American Model (NAM dataset. Adding higher resolution nests also improves the match with the observations. However, no further improvement is observed from increasing the nest resolution from 4 km to 0.8 km. Once optimized, the model is able to reproduce tracer measurements during typical winter California large-scale events (Santa Ana. Furthermore, with the WRF/CHEM chemistry module and the European Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR version 4.1 emissions for HFC-134a, we find that using a simple emission scaling factor is not sufficient to infer emissions, which highlights the need for more complex inversions.

  15. Toward a Periodic Table of Niches, or Exploring the Lizard Niche Hypervolume.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pianka, Eric R; Vitt, Laurie J; Pelegrin, Nicolás; Fitzgerald, Daniel B; Winemiller, Kirk O

    2017-11-01

    Widespread niche convergence suggests that species can be organized according to functional trait combinations to create a framework analogous to a periodic table. We compiled ecological data for lizards to examine patterns of global and regional niche diversification, and we used multivariate statistical approaches to develop the beginnings for a periodic table of niches. Data (50+ variables) for five major niche dimensions (habitat, diet, life history, metabolism, defense) were compiled for 134 species of lizards representing 24 of the 38 extant families. Principal coordinates analyses were performed on niche dimensional data sets, and species scores for the first three axes were used as input for a principal components analysis to ordinate species in continuous niche space and for a regression tree analysis to separate species into discrete niche categories. Three-dimensional models facilitate exploration of species positions in relation to major gradients within the niche hypervolume. The first gradient loads on body size, foraging mode, and clutch size. The second was influenced by metabolism and terrestrial versus arboreal microhabitat. The third was influenced by activity time, life history, and diet. Natural dichotomies are activity time, foraging mode, parity mode, and habitat. Regression tree analysis identified 103 cases of extreme niche conservatism within clades and 100 convergences between clades. Extending this approach to other taxa should lead to a wider understanding of niche evolution.

  16. Use of ecological niche modeling as a tool for predicting the potential distribution of Microcystis sp (cyanobacteria in the Aguamilpa Dam, Nayarit, Mexico

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Enrique Martinez-Meyer

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Ecological niche modeling is an important tool to evaluate the spatial distribution of terrestrial species, however, its applicability has been little explored in the aquatic environment. Microcystis sp., a species of cyanobacteria, is widely recognized for its ability to produce a group of toxins known as microcystins, which can cause death of animals as fish, birds and mammals depending on the amount of toxin absorbed. Like any taxonomic group, cyanobacteria has environmental thresholds, therefore, a suitable ecological niche will define their distribution. This study was conducted in Aguamilpa Hydroelectric Reservoir, an artificial ecosystem that started operations in 1994. In this system we evaluated the potential distribution of Microcystis sp., by generating a prediction model based on the concept of ecological niche MAXENT, using a Digital Elevation Model in cells of 100 m x 100 m (1 ha spatial resolution and monitoring eleven physicochemical and biological variables and nutrients in water. The distribution maps were developed using ArcMap 9.2®. The results indicated that Microcystis sp., is distributed mainly in the upper tributary basin (Huaynamota basin during the dry season. There was less chance to find cyanobacteria in the entire system during the cold dry season, while during the warm dry season cyanobacteria was recognized at the confluence of two rivers. During the rainfall season there were no reports of cyanobacteria presence. This species is often associated with arising trophic processes of anthropogenic origin; therefore, attention is required in specific areas that have been identified in this work to improve Aguamilpa’s watershed management and restoration. It was also recognized the importance of phosphorus and nitrogen interaction, which determines the distribution of Microcystis sp., in the Aguamilpa Reservoir. The results of this study demonstrated that ecological niche modeling was a suitable tool to assess the

  17. Niche construction game cancer cells play.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bergman, Aviv; Gligorijevic, Bojana

    2015-10-01

    Niche construction concept was originally defined in evolutionary biology as the continuous interplay between natural selection via environmental conditions and the modification of these conditions by the organism itself. Processes unraveling during cancer metastasis include construction of niches, which cancer cells use towards more efficient survival, transport into new environments and preparation of the remote sites for their arrival. Many elegant experiments were done lately illustrating, for example, the premetastatic niche construction, but there is practically no mathematical modeling done which would apply the niche construction framework. To create models useful for understanding niche construction role in cancer progression, we argue that a) genetic, b) phenotypic and c) ecological levels are to be included. While the model proposed here is phenomenological in its current form, it can be converted into a predictive outcome model via experimental measurement of the model parameters. Here we give an overview of an experimentally formulated problem in cancer metastasis and propose how niche construction framework can be utilized and broadened to model it. Other life science disciplines, such as host-parasite coevolution, may also benefit from niche construction framework adaptation, to satisfy growing need for theoretical considerations of data collected by experimental biology.

  18. Niche construction game cancer cells play

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bergman, Aviv; Gligorijevic, Bojana

    2015-10-01

    Niche construction concept was originally defined in evolutionary biology as the continuous interplay between natural selection via environmental conditions and the modification of these conditions by the organism itself. Processes unraveling during cancer metastasis include construction of niches, which cancer cells use towards more efficient survival, transport into new environments and preparation of the remote sites for their arrival. Many elegant experiments were done lately illustrating, for example, the premetastatic niche construction, but there is practically no mathematical modeling done which would apply the niche construction framework. To create models useful for understanding niche construction role in cancer progression, we argue that a) genetic, b) phenotypic and c) ecological levels are to be included. While the model proposed here is phenomenological in its current form, it can be converted into a predictive outcome model via experimental measurement of the model parameters. Here we give an overview of an experimentally formulated problem in cancer metastasis and propose how niche construction framework can be utilized and broadened to model it. Other life science disciplines, such as host-parasite coevolution, may also benefit from niche construction framework adaptation, to satisfy growing need for theoretical considerations of data collected by experimental biology.

  19. Competition influence in the segregation of the trophic niche of otariids: a case study using isotopic Bayesian mixing models in Galapagos pinnipeds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Páez-Rosas, Diego; Rodríguez-Pérez, Mónica; Riofrío-Lazo, Marjorie

    2014-12-15

    The feeding success of predators is associated with the competition level for resources, and, thus, sympatric species are exposed to a potential trophic overlap. Isotopic Bayesian mixing models should provide a better understanding of the contribution of preys to the diet of predators and the feeding behavior of a species over time. The carbon and nitrogen isotopic signatures from pup hair samples of 93 Galapagos sea lions and 48 Galapagos fur seals collected between 2003 and 2009 in different regions (east and west) of the archipelago were analyzed. A PDZ Europa ANCA-GSL elemental analyzer interfaced with a PDZ Europa 20-20 continuous flow gas source mass spectrometer was employed. Bayesian models, SIAR and SIBER, were used to estimate the contribution of prey to the diet of predators, the niche breadth, and the trophic overlap level between the populations. Statistical differences in the isotopic values of both predators were observed over the time. The mixing model determined that Galapagos fur seals had a primarily teutophagous diet, whereas the Galapagos sea lions fed exclusively on fish in both regions of the archipelago. The SIBER analysis showed differences in the trophic niche between the two sea lion populations, with the western rookery of the Galapagos sea lion being the population with the largest trophic niche area. A trophic niche partitioning between Galapagos fur seals and Galapagos sea lions in the west of the archipelago is suggested by our results. At intraspecific level, the western population of the Galapagos sea lion (ZwW) showed higher trophic breadth than the eastern population, a strategy adopted by the ZwW to decrease the interspecific competition levels in the western region. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  20. Species-specific ecological niche modelling predicts different range contractions for Lutzomyia intermedia and a related vector of Leishmania braziliensis following climate change in South America.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McIntyre, Shannon; Rangel, Elizabeth F; Ready, Paul D; Carvalho, Bruno M

    2017-03-24

    Before 1996 the phlebotomine sand fly Lutzomyia neivai was usually treated as a synonym of the morphologically similar Lutzomyia intermedia, which has long been considered a vector of Leishmania braziliensis, the causative agent of much cutaneous leishmaniasis in South America. This report investigates the likely range changes of both sand fly species in response to a stabilisation climate change scenario (RCP4.5) and a high greenhouse gas emissions one (RCP8.5). Ecological niche modelling was used to identify areas of South America with climates currently suitable for each species, and then the future distributions of these climates were predicted based on climate change scenarios. Compared with the previous ecological niche model of L. intermedia (sensu lato) produced using the GARP algorithm in 2003, the current investigation modelled the two species separately, making use of verified presence records and additional records after 2001. Also, the new ensemble approach employed ecological niche modelling algorithms (including Maximum Entropy, Random Forests and Support Vector Machines) that have been widely adopted since 2003 and perform better than GARP, as well as using a more recent climate change model (HadGEM2) considered to have better performance at higher resolution than the earlier one (HadCM2). Lutzomyia intermedia was shown to be the more tropical of the two species, with its climatic niche defined by higher annual mean temperatures and lower temperature seasonality, in contrast to the more subtropical L. neivai. These different latitudinal ranges explain the two species' predicted responses to climate change by 2050, with L. intermedia mostly contracting its range (except perhaps in northeast Brazil) and L. neivai mostly shifting its range southwards in Brazil and Argentina. This contradicts the findings of the 2003 report, which predicted more range expansion. The different findings can be explained by the improved data sets and modelling methods. Our

  1. Selecting a Conservation Surrogate Species for Small Fragmented Habitats Using Ecological Niche Modelling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Anne-Isola Nekaris

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Flagship species are traditionally large, charismatic animals used to rally conservation efforts. Accepted flagship definitions suggest they need only fulfil a strategic role, unlike umbrella species that are used to shelter cohabitant taxa. The criteria used to select both flagship and umbrella species may not stand up in the face of dramatic forest loss, where remaining fragments may only contain species that do not suit either set of criteria. The Cinderella species concept covers aesthetically pleasing and overlooked species that fulfil the criteria of flagships or umbrellas. Such species are also more likely to occur in fragmented habitats. We tested Cinderella criteria on mammals in the fragmented forests of the Sri Lankan Wet Zone. We selected taxa that fulfilled both strategic and ecological roles. We created a shortlist of ten species, and from a survey of local perceptions highlighted two finalists. We tested these for umbrella characteristics against the original shortlist, utilizing Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt modelling, and analysed distribution overlap using ArcGIS. The criteria highlighted Loris tardigradus tardigradus and Prionailurus viverrinus as finalists, with the former having highest flagship potential. We suggest Cinderella species can be effective conservation surrogates especially in habitats where traditional flagship species have been extirpated.

  2. Ecological niches of open ocean phytoplankton taxa

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brun, Philipp Georg; Vogt, Meike; Payne, Mark

    2015-01-01

    We characterize the realized ecological niches of 133 phytoplankton taxa in the open ocean based on observations from the MAREDAT initiative and a statistical species distribution model (MaxEnt). The models find that the physical conditions (mixed layer depth, temperature, light) govern large...... conditions in the open ocean. Our estimates of the realized niches roughly match the predictions of Reynolds' C-S-R model for the global ocean, namely that taxa classified as nutrient stress tolerant have niches at lower nutrient and higher irradiance conditions than light stress tolerant taxa. Yet...

  3. Modeling applications for precision agriculture in the California Central Valley

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marklein, A. R.; Riley, W. J.; Grant, R. F.; Mezbahuddin, S.; Mekonnen, Z. A.; Liu, Y.; Ying, S.

    2017-12-01

    Drought in California has increased the motivation to develop precision agriculture, which uses observations to make site-specific management decisions throughout the growing season. In agricultural systems that are prone to drought, these efforts often focus on irrigation efficiency. Recent improvements in soil sensor technology allow the monitoring of plant and soil status in real-time, which can then inform models aimed at improving irrigation management. But even on farms with resources to deploy soil sensors across the landscape, leveraging that sensor data to design an efficient irrigation scheme remains a challenge. We conduct a modeling experiment aimed at simulating precision agriculture to address several questions: (1) how, when, and where does irrigation lead to optimal yield? and (2) What are the impacts of different precision irrigation schemes on yields, soil organic carbon (SOC), and total water use? We use the ecosys model to simulate precision agriculture in a conventional tomato-corn rotation in the California Central Valley with varying soil water content thresholds for irrigation and soil water sensor depths. This model is ideal for our question because it includes explicit process-based functions for the plant growth, plant water use, soil hydrology, and SOC, and has been tested extensively in agricultural ecosystems. Low irrigation thresholds allows the soil to become drier before irrigating compared to high irrigation thresholds; as such, we found that the high irrigation thresholds use more irrigation over the course of the season, have higher yields, and have lower water use efficiency. The irrigation threshold did not affect SOC. Yields and water use are highest at sensor depths of 0.5 to 0.15 m, but water use efficiency was also lowest at these depths. We found SOC to be significantly affected by sensor depth, with the highest SOC at the shallowest sensor depths. These results will help regulate irrigation water while maintaining yield

  4. Re-establishing the pecking order: Niche models reliably predict suitable habitats for the reintroduction of red-billed oxpeckers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalle, Riddhika; Combrink, Leigh; Ramesh, Tharmalingam; Downs, Colleen T

    2017-03-01

    Distributions of avian mutualists are affected by changes in biotic interactions and environmental conditions driven directly/indirectly by human actions. The range contraction of red-billed oxpeckers ( Buphagus erythrorhynchus ) in South Africa is partly a result of the widespread use of acaracides (i.e., mainly cattle dips), toxic to both ticks and oxpeckers. We predicted the habitat suitability of red-billed oxpeckers in South Africa using ensemble models to assist the ongoing reintroduction efforts and to identify new reintroduction sites for population recovery. The distribution of red-billed oxpeckers was influenced by moderate to high tree cover, woodland habitats, and starling density (a proxy for cavity-nesting birds) with regard to nest-site characteristics. Consumable resources (host and tick density), bioclimate, surface water body density, and proximity to protected areas were other influential predictors. Our models estimated 42,576.88-98,506.98 km 2 of highly suitable habitat (0.5-1) covering the majority of Limpopo, Mpumalanga, North West, a substantial portion of northern KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) and the Gauteng Province. Niche models reliably predicted suitable habitat in 40%-61% of the reintroduction sites where breeding is currently successful. Ensemble, boosted regression trees and generalized additive models predicted few suitable areas in the Eastern Cape and south of KZN that are part of the historic range. A few southern areas in the Northern Cape, outside the historic range, also had suitable sites predicted. Our models are a promising decision support tool for guiding reintroduction programs at macroscales. Apart from active reintroductions, conservation programs should encourage farmers and/or landowners to use oxpecker-compatible agrochemicals and set up adequate nest boxes to facilitate the population recovery of the red-billed oxpecker, particularly in human-modified landscapes. To ensure long-term conservation success, we suggest that

  5. Thermal niche for in situ seed germination by Mediterranean mountain streams: model prediction and validation for Rhamnus persicifolia seeds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Porceddu, Marco; Mattana, Efisio; Pritchard, Hugh W.; Bacchetta, Gianluigi

    2013-01-01

    Background and Aims Mediterranean mountain species face exacting ecological conditions of rainy, cold winters and arid, hot summers, which affect seed germination phenology. In this study, a soil heat sum model was used to predict field emergence of Rhamnus persicifolia, an endemic tree species living at the edge of mountain streams of central eastern Sardinia. Methods Seeds were incubated in the light at a range of temperatures (10–25 and 25/10 °C) after different periods (up to 3 months) of cold stratification at 5 °C. Base temperatures (Tb), and thermal times for 50 % germination (θ50) were calculated. Seeds were also buried in the soil in two natural populations (Rio Correboi and Rio Olai), both underneath and outside the tree canopy, and exhumed at regular intervals. Soil temperatures were recorded using data loggers and soil heat sum (°Cd) was calculated on the basis of the estimated Tb and soil temperatures. Key Results Cold stratification released physiological dormancy (PD), increasing final germination and widening the range of germination temperatures, indicative of a Type 2 non-deep PD. Tb was reduced from 10·5 °C for non-stratified seeds to 2·7 °C for seeds cold stratified for 3 months. The best thermal time model was obtained by fitting probit germination against log °Cd. θ50 was 2·6 log °Cd for untreated seeds and 2·17–2·19 log °Cd for stratified seeds. When θ50 values were integrated with soil heat sum estimates, field emergence was predicted from March to April and confirmed through field observations. Conclusions Tb and θ50 values facilitated model development of the thermal niche for in situ germination of R. persicifolia. These experimental approaches may be applied to model the natural regeneration patterns of other species growing on Mediterranean mountain waterways and of physiologically dormant species, with overwintering cold stratification requirement and spring germination. PMID:24201139

  6. Potential for spread of the white-nose fungus (Pseudogymnoascus destructans in the Americas: use of Maxent and NicheA to assure strict model transference

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luis E. Escobar

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Emerging infectious diseases can present serious threats to wildlife, even to the point of causing extinction. White- nose fungus (Pseudogymnoascus destructans is causing an epizootic in bats that is expanding rapidly, both geographically and taxonomically. Little is known of the ecology and distributional potential of this intercontinental pathogen. We address this gap via ecological niche models that characterise coarse resolution niche differences between fungus populations on dif- ferent continents, identifying areas potentially vulnerable to infection in South America. Here we explore a novel approach to identifying areas of potential distribution across novel geographic regions that avoids perilious extrapolation into novel environments. European and North American fungus populations show differential use of environmental space, but rather than niche differentiation, we find that changes are best attributed to climatic differences between the two continents. Suitable areas for spread of the pathogen were identified across southern South America; however caution should be taken to avoid underestimating the potential for spread of this pathogen in South America.

  7. From California dreaming to California data: Challenging historic models for landfill CH4 emissions

    OpenAIRE

    Spokas, Kurt; Bogner, Jean; Corcoran, Meg; Walker, Scott

    2015-01-01

    Abstract Improved quantification of diverse CH4 sources at the urban scale is needed to guide local GHG mitigation strategies in the Anthropocene. Herein, we focus on landfill CH4 emissions in California, challenging the current IPCC methodology which focuses on a climate dependency for landfill CH4 generation (methanogenesis), but does not explicitly consider climate or soil dependencies for emissions. Relying on a comprehensive California landfill database, a field-validated process-based m...

  8. From GenBank to GBIF: Phylogeny-Based Predictive Niche Modeling Tests Accuracy of Taxonomic Identifications in Large Occurrence Data Repositories.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, B Eugene; Johnston, Mark K; Lücking, Robert

    2016-01-01

    Accuracy of taxonomic identifications is crucial to data quality in online repositories of species occurrence data, such as the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF), which have accumulated several hundred million records over the past 15 years. These data serve as basis for large scale analyses of macroecological and biogeographic patterns and to document environmental changes over time. However, taxonomic identifications are often unreliable, especially for non-vascular plants and fungi including lichens, which may lack critical revisions of voucher specimens. Due to the scale of the problem, restudy of millions of collections is unrealistic and other strategies are needed. Here we propose to use verified, georeferenced occurrence data of a given species to apply predictive niche modeling that can then be used to evaluate unverified occurrences of that species. Selecting the charismatic lichen fungus, Usnea longissima, as a case study, we used georeferenced occurrence records based on sequenced specimens to model its predicted niche. Our results suggest that the target species is largely restricted to a narrow range of boreal and temperate forest in the Northern Hemisphere and that occurrence records in GBIF from tropical regions and the Southern Hemisphere do not represent this taxon, a prediction tested by comparison with taxonomic revisions of Usnea for these regions. As a novel approach, we employed Principal Component Analysis on the environmental grid data used for predictive modeling to visualize potential ecogeographical barriers for the target species; we found that tropical regions conform a strong barrier, explaining why potential niches in the Southern Hemisphere were not colonized by Usnea longissima and instead by morphologically similar species. This approach is an example of how data from two of the most important biodiversity repositories, GenBank and GBIF, can be effectively combined to remotely address the problem of inaccuracy of

  9. California Wintertime Precipitation in Regional and Global Climate Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Caldwell, P M

    2009-04-27

    In this paper, wintertime precipitation from a variety of observational datasets, regional climate models (RCMs), and general circulation models (GCMs) is averaged over the state of California (CA) and compared. Several averaging methodologies are considered and all are found to give similar values when model grid spacing is less than 3{sup o}. This suggests that CA is a reasonable size for regional intercomparisons using modern GCMs. Results show that reanalysis-forced RCMs tend to significantly overpredict CA precipitation. This appears to be due mainly to overprediction of extreme events; RCM precipitation frequency is generally underpredicted. Overprediction is also reflected in wintertime precipitation variability, which tends to be too high for RCMs on both daily and interannual scales. Wintertime precipitation in most (but not all) GCMs is underestimated. This is in contrast to previous studies based on global blended gauge/satellite observations which are shown here to underestimate precipitation relative to higher-resolution gauge-only datasets. Several GCMs provide reasonable daily precipitation distributions, a trait which doesn't seem tied to model resolution. GCM daily and interannual variability is generally underpredicted.

  10. Hanging drop cultures of human testis and testis cancer samples: a model used to investigate activin treatment effects in a preserved niche.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jørgensen, A; Young, J; Nielsen, J E; Joensen, U N; Toft, B G; Rajpert-De Meyts, E; Loveland, K L

    2014-05-13

    Testicular germ cell tumours of young adults, seminoma or non-seminomas, are preceded by a pre-invasive precursor, carcinoma in situ (CIS), understood to arise through differentiation arrest of embryonic germ cells. Knowledge about the malignant transformation of germ cells is currently limited by the lack of experimental models. The aim of this study was to establish an experimental tissue culture model to maintain normal and malignant germ cells within their niche and allow investigation of treatment effects. Human testis and testis cancer specimens from orchidectomies were cultured in 'hanging drops' and effects of activin A and follistatin treatment were investigated in seminoma cultures. Testis fragments with normal spermatogenesis or CIS cells were cultured for 14 days with sustained proliferation of germ cells and CIS cells and without increased apoptosis. Seminoma cultures survived 7 days, with proliferating cells detectable during the first 5 days. Activin A treatment significantly reduced KIT transcript and protein levels in seminoma cultures, thereby demonstrating a specific treatment response. Hanging drop cultures of human testis and testis cancer samples can be employed to delineate mechanisms governing growth of normal, CIS and tumorigenic germ cells retained within their niche.

  11. A Real-Time Application of the ADCIRC-2DDI Hydrodynamic Model at Camp Pendleton, California

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Blain, Cheryl

    1998-01-01

    ...) off the coast of southern California 16-23 Jul 1997. A modeling strategy is designed for Camp Pendleton coastal waters and appropriate sensitivity analyses are conducted to assess initial model performance...

  12. From California dreaming to California data: Challenging historic models for landfill CH4 emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Improved quantification of diverse CH4 sources at the urban scale is needed to guide local greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation strategies in the Anthropocene. Herein, we focus on landfill CH4 emissions in California, challenging the current IPCC methodology which focuses on a climate dependency for land...

  13. Web-Based Tools for Modelling and Analysis of Multivariate Data: California Ozone Pollution Activity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dinov, Ivo D.; Christou, Nicolas

    2011-01-01

    This article presents a hands-on web-based activity motivated by the relation between human health and ozone pollution in California. This case study is based on multivariate data collected monthly at 20 locations in California between 1980 and 2006. Several strategies and tools for data interrogation and exploratory data analysis, model fitting…

  14. Stochastic representation of fire behavior in a wildland fire protection planning model for California.

    Science.gov (United States)

    J. Keith Gilless; Jeremy S. Fried

    1998-01-01

    A fire behavior module was developed for the California Fire Economics Simulator version 2 (CFES2), a stochastic simulation model of initial attack on wildland fire used by the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection. Fire rate of spread (ROS) and fire dispatch level (FDL) for simulated fires "occurring" on the same day are determined by making...

  15. Plant stem cell niches.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stahl, Yvonne; Simon, Rüdiger

    2005-01-01

    Stem cells are required to support the indeterminate growth style of plants. Meristems are a plants stem cell niches that foster stem cell survival and the production of descendants destined for differentiation. In shoot meristems, stem cell fate is decided at the populational level. The size of the stem cell domain at the meristem tip depends on signals that are exchanged with cells of the organizing centre underneath. In root meristems, individual stem cells are controlled by direct interaction with cells of the quiescent centre that lie in the immediate neighbourhood. Analysis of the interactions and signaling processes in the stem cell niches has delivered some insights into the molecules that are involved and revealed that the two major niches for plant stem cells are more similar than anticipated.

  16. Hydrologic model of the Modesto Region, California, 1960-2004

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phillips, Steven P.; Rewis, Diane L.; Traum, Jonathan A.

    2015-01-01

    Strategies for managing water supplies and groundwater quality in the Modesto region of the eastern San Joaquin Valley, California, are being formulated and evaluated by the Stanislaus and Tuolumne Rivers Groundwater Basin Association. Management issues and goals in the basin include an area in the lower part of the basin that requires drainage of the shallow water table to sustain agriculture, intra- and inter-basin migration of poor-quality groundwater, and efficient management of surface and groundwater supplies. To aid in the evaluation of water-management strategies, the U.S. Geological Survey and the Stanislaus and Tuolumne Rivers Groundwater Basin Association have developed a hydrologic model that simulates monthly groundwater and surface-water flow as governed by aquifer-system properties, annual and seasonal variations in climate, surface-water flow and availability, water use, and land use. The model was constructed by using the U.S. Geological Survey groundwater-modeling software MODFLOW-OWHM with the Farm Process.

  17. Niche conservatism and the invasive potential of the wild boar.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sales, Lilian Patrícia; Ribeiro, Bruno R; Hayward, Matt Warrington; Paglia, Adriano; Passamani, Marcelo; Loyola, Rafael

    2017-09-01

    Niche conservatism, i.e. the retention of a species' fundamental niche through evolutionary time, is cornerstone for biological invasion assessments. The fact that species tend to maintain their original climate niche allows predictive maps of invasion risk to anticipate potential invadable areas. Unravelling the mechanisms driving niche shifts can shed light on the management of invasive species. Here, we assessed niche shifts in one of the world's worst invasive species: the wild boar Sus scrofa. We also predicted potential invadable areas based on an ensemble of three ecological niche modelling methods, and evaluated the performance of models calibrated with native vs. pooled (native plus invaded) species records. By disentangling the drivers of change on the exotic wild boar population's niches, we found strong evidence for niche conservatism during biological invasion. Ecological niche models calibrated with both native and pooled range records predicted convergent areas. Also, observed niche shifts are mostly explained by niche unfilling, i.e. there are unoccupied areas in the exotic range where climate is analogous to the native range. Niche unfilling is expected as result of recent colonization and ongoing dispersal, and was potentially stronger for the Neotropics, where a recent wave of introductions for pig-farming and game-hunting has led to high wild boar population growth rates. The invasive potential of wild boar in the Neotropics is probably higher than in other regions, which has profound management implications if we are to prevent their invasion into species-rich areas, such as Amazonia, coupled with expansion of African swine fever and possibly great economic losses. Although the originally Eurasian-wide distribution suggests a pre-adaptation to a wide array of climates, the wild boar world-wide invasion does not exhibit evidence of niche evolution. The invasive potential of the wild boar therefore probably lies on the reproductive, dietary and

  18. Ecological and evolutionary consequences of niche construction for its agent.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kylafis, Grigoris; Loreau, Michel

    2008-10-01

    Niche construction can generate ecological and evolutionary feedbacks that have been underinvestigated so far. We present an eco-evolutionary model that incorporates the process of niche construction to reveal its effects on the ecology and evolution of the niche-constructing agent. We consider a simple plant-soil nutrient ecosystem in which plants have the ability to increase the input of inorganic nutrient as an example of positive niche construction. On an ecological time scale, the model shows that niche construction allows the persistence of plants under infertile soil conditions that would otherwise lead to their extinction. This expansion of plants' niche, however, requires a high enough rate of niche construction and a high enough initial plant biomass to fuel the positive ecological feedback between plants and their soil environment. On an evolutionary time scale, we consider that the rates of niche construction and nutrient uptake coevolve in plants while a trade-off constrains their values. Different evolutionary outcomes are possible depending on the shape of the trade-off. We show that niche construction results in an evolutionary feedback between plants and their soil environment such that plants partially regulate soil nutrient content. The direct benefit accruing to plants, however, plays a crucial role in the evolutionary advantage of niche construction.

  19. Ecological Niche Modelling Predicts Southward Expansion of Lutzomyia (Nyssomyia flaviscutellata (Diptera: Psychodidae: Phlebotominae, Vector of Leishmania (Leishmania amazonensis in South America, under Climate Change.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bruno M Carvalho

    Full Text Available Vector borne diseases are susceptible to climate change because distributions and densities of many vectors are climate driven. The Amazon region is endemic for cutaneous leishmaniasis and is predicted to be severely impacted by climate change. Recent records suggest that the distributions of Lutzomyia (Nyssomyia flaviscutellata and the parasite it transmits, Leishmania (Leishmania amazonensis, are expanding southward, possibly due to climate change, and sometimes associated with new human infection cases. We define the vector's climatic niche and explore future projections under climate change scenarios. Vector occurrence records were compiled from the literature, museum collections and Brazilian Health Departments. Six bioclimatic variables were used as predictors in six ecological niche model algorithms (BIOCLIM, DOMAIN, MaxEnt, GARP, logistic regression and Random Forest. Projections for 2050 used 17 general circulation models in two greenhouse gas representative concentration pathways: "stabilization" and "high increase". Ensemble models and consensus maps were produced by overlapping binary predictions. Final model outputs showed good performance and significance. The use of species absence data substantially improved model performance. Currently, L. flaviscutellata is widely distributed in the Amazon region, with records in the Atlantic Forest and savannah regions of Central Brazil. Future projections indicate expansion of the climatically suitable area for the vector in both scenarios, towards higher latitudes and elevations. L. flaviscutellata is likely to find increasingly suitable conditions for its expansion into areas where human population size and density are much larger than they are in its current locations. If environmental conditions change as predicted, the range of the vector is likely to expand to southeastern and central-southern Brazil, eastern Paraguay and further into the Amazonian areas of Bolivia, Peru, Ecuador

  20. Ecological Niche Modelling Predicts Southward Expansion of Lutzomyia (Nyssomyia) flaviscutellata (Diptera: Psychodidae: Phlebotominae), Vector of Leishmania (Leishmania) amazonensis in South America, under Climate Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carvalho, Bruno M; Rangel, Elizabeth F; Ready, Paul D; Vale, Mariana M

    2015-01-01

    Vector borne diseases are susceptible to climate change because distributions and densities of many vectors are climate driven. The Amazon region is endemic for cutaneous leishmaniasis and is predicted to be severely impacted by climate change. Recent records suggest that the distributions of Lutzomyia (Nyssomyia) flaviscutellata and the parasite it transmits, Leishmania (Leishmania) amazonensis, are expanding southward, possibly due to climate change, and sometimes associated with new human infection cases. We define the vector's climatic niche and explore future projections under climate change scenarios. Vector occurrence records were compiled from the literature, museum collections and Brazilian Health Departments. Six bioclimatic variables were used as predictors in six ecological niche model algorithms (BIOCLIM, DOMAIN, MaxEnt, GARP, logistic regression and Random Forest). Projections for 2050 used 17 general circulation models in two greenhouse gas representative concentration pathways: "stabilization" and "high increase". Ensemble models and consensus maps were produced by overlapping binary predictions. Final model outputs showed good performance and significance. The use of species absence data substantially improved model performance. Currently, L. flaviscutellata is widely distributed in the Amazon region, with records in the Atlantic Forest and savannah regions of Central Brazil. Future projections indicate expansion of the climatically suitable area for the vector in both scenarios, towards higher latitudes and elevations. L. flaviscutellata is likely to find increasingly suitable conditions for its expansion into areas where human population size and density are much larger than they are in its current locations. If environmental conditions change as predicted, the range of the vector is likely to expand to southeastern and central-southern Brazil, eastern Paraguay and further into the Amazonian areas of Bolivia, Peru, Ecuador, Colombia and Venezuela

  1. CCIEA data and model output - California Current Integrated Ecosystem Assessment

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The California Current Integrated Ecosystem Assessment (CCIEA) is a joint project between staff at the NWFSC, SWFSC, NMML, ONMS, and WCRO to provide managers and...

  2. Physical oceanography - Developing end-to-end models of the California Current Large Marine Ecosystem

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The purpose of this project is to develop spatially discrete end-to-end models of the California Current LME, linking oceanography, biogeochemistry, food web...

  3. Ecological niche transferability using invasive species as a case study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miguel Fernández

    Full Text Available Species distribution modeling is widely applied to predict invasive species distributions and species range shifts under climate change. Accurate predictions depend upon meeting the assumption that ecological niches are conserved, i.e., spatially or temporally transferable. Here we present a multi-taxon comparative analysis of niche conservatism using biological invasion events well documented in natural history museum collections. Our goal is to assess spatial transferability of the climatic niche of a range of noxious terrestrial invasive species using two complementary approaches. First we compare species' native versus invasive ranges in environmental space using two distinct methods, Principal Components Analysis and Mahalanobis distance. Second we compare species' native versus invaded ranges in geographic space as estimated using the species distribution modeling technique Maxent and the comparative index Hellinger's I. We find that species exhibit a range of responses, from almost complete transferability, in which the invaded niches completely overlap with the native niches, to a complete dissociation between native and invaded ranges. Intermediate responses included expansion of dimension attributable to either temperature or precipitation derived variables, as well as niche expansion in multiple dimensions. We conclude that the ecological niche in the native range is generally a poor predictor of invaded range and, by analogy, the ecological niche may be a poor predictor of range shifts under climate change. We suggest that assessing dimensions of niche transferability prior to standard species distribution modeling may improve the understanding of species' dynamics in the invaded range.

  4. Geographical parthenogenesis: General purpose genotypes and frozen niche variation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vrijenhoek, Robert C.; Parker, Dave

    2009-01-01

    hypotheses concerning the evolution of niche breadth in asexual species - the "general-purpose genotype" (GPG) and "frozen niche-variation" (FNV) models. The two models are often portrayed as mutually exclusive, respectively viewing clonal lineages as generalists versus specialists. Nonetheless...

  5. Stress field models from Maxwell stress functions: southern California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bird, Peter

    2017-08-01

    shallow stress maxima and discontinuous horizontal compression at the Moho, which the new model can only approximate. The new model also lacks the spatial resolution to portray the localized stress states that may occur near the central surfaces of weak faults; instead, the model portrays the regional or background stress field which provides boundary conditions for weak faults. Peak shear stresses in one registered model and one alternate model are 120 and 150 MPa, respectively, while peak vertically integrated shear stresses are 2.9 × 1012 and 4.1 × 1012 N m-1. Channeling of deviatoric stress along the strong Great Valley and the western slope of the Peninsular Ranges is evident. In the neotectonics of southern California, it appears that deviatoric stress and long-term strain rate have a negative correlation, because regions of low heat flow are strong and act as stress guides, while undergoing very little internal deformation. In contrast, active faults lie preferentially in areas with higher heat flow, and their low strength keeps deviatoric stresses locally modest.

  6. Estimating Policy-Driven Greenhouse Gas Emissions Trajectories in California: The California Greenhouse Gas Inventory Spreadsheet (GHGIS) Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Greenblatt, Jeffery B.

    2013-10-10

    A California Greenhouse Gas Inventory Spreadsheet (GHGIS) model was developed to explore the impact of combinations of state policies on state greenhouse gas (GHG) and regional criteria pollutant emissions. The model included representations of all GHG- emitting sectors of the California economy (including those outside the energy sector, such as high global warming potential gases, waste treatment, agriculture and forestry) in varying degrees of detail, and was carefully calibrated using available data and projections from multiple state agencies and other sources. Starting from basic drivers such as population, numbers of households, gross state product, numbers of vehicles, etc., the model calculated energy demands by type (various types of liquid and gaseous hydrocarbon fuels, electricity and hydrogen), and finally calculated emissions of GHGs and three criteria pollutants: reactive organic gases (ROG), nitrogen oxides (NOx), and fine (2.5 ?m) particulate matter (PM2.5). Calculations were generally statewide, but in some sectors, criteria pollutants were also calculated for two regional air basins: the South Coast Air Basin (SCAB) and the San Joaquin Valley (SJV). Three scenarios were developed that attempt to model: (1) all committed policies, (2) additional, uncommitted policy targets and (3) potential technology and market futures. Each scenario received extensive input from state energy planning agencies, in particular the California Air Resources Board. Results indicate that all three scenarios are able to meet the 2020 statewide GHG targets, and by 2030, statewide GHG emissions range from between 208 and 396 MtCO2/yr. However, none of the scenarios are able to meet the 2050 GHG target of 85 MtCO2/yr, with emissions ranging from 188 to 444 MtCO2/yr, so additional policies will need to be developed for California to meet this stringent future target. A full sensitivity study of major scenario assumptions was also performed. In terms of criteria pollutants

  7. Gulf of California species and catch spatial distributions and historical time series - Developing end-to-end models of the Gulf of California

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The purpose of this project is to develop spatially discrete end-to-end models of the northern Gulf of California, linking oceanography, biogeochemistry, food web...

  8. Time-Specific Ecologic Niche Models Forecast the Risk of Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome in Dongting Lake District, China, 2005–2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Xiao-Ling; Li, Xiu-Jun; Ma, Gui-Hua; Huang, Ru; Yang, Hui-Suo; Tian, Huaiyu; Xiao, Hong

    2014-01-01

    Background Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS), a rodent-borne infectious disease, is one of the most serious public health threats in China. Increasing our understanding of the spatial and temporal patterns of HFRS infections could guide local prevention and control strategies. Methodology/Principal Findings We employed statistical models to analyze HFRS case data together with environmental data from the Dongting Lake district during 2005–2010. Specifically, time-specific ecologic niche models (ENMs) were used to quantify and identify risk factors associated with HFRS transmission as well as forecast seasonal variation in risk across geographic areas. Results showed that the Maximum Entropy model provided the best predictive ability (AUC = 0.755). Time-specific Maximum Entropy models showed that the potential risk areas of HFRS significantly varied across seasons. High-risk areas were mainly found in the southeastern and southwestern areas of the Dongting Lake district. Our findings based on models focused on the spring and winter seasons showed particularly good performance. The potential risk areas were smaller in March, May and August compared with those identified for June, July and October to December. Both normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and land use types were found to be the dominant risk factors. Conclusions/Significance Our findings indicate that time-specific ENMs provide a useful tool to forecast the spatial and temporal risk of HFRS. PMID:25184252

  9. Multiple Landslide-Hazard Scenarios Modeled for the Oakland-Berkeley Area, Northern California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pike, Richard J.; Graymer, Russell W.

    2008-01-01

    With the exception of Los Angeles, perhaps no urban area in the United States is more at risk from landsliding, triggered by either precipitation or earthquake, than the San Francisco Bay region of northern California. By January each year, seasonal winter storms usually bring moisture levels of San Francisco Bay region hillsides to the point of saturation, after which additional heavy rainfall may induce landslides of various types and levels of severity. In addition, movement at any time along one of several active faults in the area may generate an earthquake large enough to trigger landslides. The danger to life and property rises each year as local populations continue to expand and more hillsides are graded for development of residential housing and its supporting infrastructure. The chapters in the text consist of: *Introduction by Russell W. Graymer *Chapter 1 Rainfall Thresholds for Landslide Activity, San Francisco Bay Region, Northern California by Raymond C. Wilson *Chapter 2 Susceptibility to Deep-Seated Landsliding Modeled for the Oakland-Berkeley Area, Northern California by Richard J. Pike and Steven Sobieszczyk *Chapter 3 Susceptibility to Shallow Landsliding Modeled for the Oakland-Berkeley Area, Northern California by Kevin M. Schmidt and Steven Sobieszczyk *Chapter 4 Landslide Hazard Modeled for the Cities of Oakland, Piedmont, and Berkeley, Northern California, from a M=7.1 Scenario Earthquake on the Hayward Fault Zone by Scott B. Miles and David K. Keefer *Chapter 5 Synthesis of Landslide-Hazard Scenarios Modeled for the Oakland-Berkeley Area, Northern California by Richard J. Pike The plates consist of: *Plate 1 Susceptibility to Deep-Seated Landsliding Modeled for the Oakland-Berkeley Area, Northern California by Richard J. Pike, Russell W. Graymer, Sebastian Roberts, Naomi B. Kalman, and Steven Sobieszczyk *Plate 2 Susceptibility to Shallow Landsliding Modeled for the Oakland-Berkeley Area, Northern California by Kevin M. Schmidt and Steven

  10. Modeling and Prediction of Wildfire Hazard in Southern California, Integration of Models with Imaging Spectrometry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roberts, Dar A.; Church, Richard; Ustin, Susan L.; Brass, James A. (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    Large urban wildfires throughout southern California have caused billions of dollars of damage and significant loss of life over the last few decades. Rapid urban growth along the wildland interface, high fuel loads and a potential increase in the frequency of large fires due to climatic change suggest that the problem will worsen in the future. Improved fire spread prediction and reduced uncertainty in assessing fire hazard would be significant, both economically and socially. Current problems in the modeling of fire spread include the role of plant community differences, spatial heterogeneity in fuels and spatio-temporal changes in fuels. In this research, we evaluated the potential of Airborne Visible/Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS) and Airborne Synthetic Aperture Radar (AIRSAR) data for providing improved maps of wildfire fuel properties. Analysis concentrated in two areas of Southern California, the Santa Monica Mountains and Santa Barbara Front Range. Wildfire fuel information can be divided into four basic categories: fuel type, fuel load (live green and woody biomass), fuel moisture and fuel condition (live vs senesced fuels). To map fuel type, AVIRIS data were used to map vegetation species using Multiple Endmember Spectral Mixture Analysis (MESMA) and Binary Decision Trees. Green live biomass and canopy moisture were mapped using AVIRIS through analysis of the 980 nm liquid water absorption feature and compared to alternate measures of moisture and field measurements. Woody biomass was mapped using L and P band cross polarimetric data acquired in 1998 and 1999. Fuel condition was mapped using spectral mixture analysis to map green vegetation (green leaves), nonphotosynthetic vegetation (NPV; stems, wood and litter), shade and soil. Summaries describing the potential of hyperspectral and SAR data for fuel mapping are provided by Roberts et al. and Dennison et al. To utilize remotely sensed data to assess fire hazard, fuel-type maps were translated

  11. Quasi-decadal Oscillation in the CMIP5 and CMIP3 Climate Model Simulations: California Case

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, J.; Yin, H.; Reyes, E.; Chung, F. I.

    2014-12-01

    The ongoing three drought years in California are reminding us of two other historical long drought periods: 1987-1992 and 1928-1934. This kind of interannual variability is corresponding to the dominating 7-15 yr quasi-decadal oscillation in precipitation and streamflow in California. When using global climate model projections to assess the climate change impact on water resources planning in California, it is natural to ask if global climate models are able to reproduce the observed interannual variability like 7-15 yr quasi-decadal oscillation. Further spectral analysis to tree ring retrieved precipitation and historical precipitation record proves the existence of 7-15 yr quasi-decadal oscillation in California. But while implementing spectral analysis to all the CMIP5 and CMIP3 global climate model historical simulations using wavelet analysis approach, it was found that only two models in CMIP3 , CGCM 2.3.2a of MRI and NCAP PCM1.0, and only two models in CMIP5, MIROC5 and CESM1-WACCM, have statistically significant 7-15 yr quasi-decadal oscillations in California. More interesting, the existence of 7-15 yr quasi-decadal oscillation in the global climate model simulation is also sensitive to initial conditions. 12-13 yr quasi-decadal oscillation occurs in one ensemble run of CGCM 2.3.2a of MRI but does not exist in the other four ensemble runs.

  12. The Fluctuation Niche in Plants

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jaume Terradas

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Classical approaches to niche in coexisting plants have undervalued temporal fluctuations. We propose that fluctuation niche is an important dimension of the total niche and interacts with habitat and life-history niches to provide a better understanding of the multidimensional niche space where ecological interactions occur. To scale a fluctuation niche, it is necessary to relate environmental constrictions or species performance not only to the absolute values of the usual environmental and ecophysiological variables but also to their variances or other measures of variability. We use Mediterranean plant communities as examples, because they present characteristic large seasonal and interannual fluctuations in water and nutrient availabilities, along an episodic-constant gradient, and because the plant responses include a number of syndromes coupled to this gradient.

  13. The Fluctuation Niche in Plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Terradas, J.; Penuelas, J.; Lloret, F.; Penuelas, J.

    2009-01-01

    Classical approaches to niche in coexisting plants have undervalued temporal fluctuations. We propose that fluctuation niche is an important dimension of the total niche and interacts with habitat and life-history niches to provide a better understanding of the multidimensional niche space where ecological interactions occur. To scale a fluctuation niche, it is necessary to relate environmental constrictions or species performance not only to the absolute values of the usual environmental and eco physiological variables but also to their variances or other measures of variability. We use Mediterranean plant communities as examples, because they present characteristic large seasonal and inter annual fluctuations in water and nutrient availabilities, along an episodic-constant gradient, and because the plant responses include a number of syndromes coupled to this gradient.

  14. Pre-metastatic niches

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Peinado, Héctor; Zhang, Haiying; Matei, Irina R.

    2017-01-01

    It is well established that organs of future metastasis are not passive receivers of circulating tumour cells, but are instead selectively and actively modified by the primary tumour before metastatic spread has even occurred. Sowing the 'seeds' of metastasis requires the action of tumour......-secreted factors and tumour-shed extracellular vesicles that enable the 'soil' at distant metastatic sites to encourage the outgrowth of incoming cancer cells. In this Review, we summarize the main processes and new mechanisms involved in the formation of the pre-metastatic niche....

  15. How many studies are necessary to compare niche-based models for geographic distributions? Inductive reasoning may fail at the end.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Terribile, L C; Diniz-Filho, J A F; De Marco, P

    2010-05-01

    The use of ecological niche models (ENM) to generate potential geographic distributions of species has rapidly increased in ecology, conservation and evolutionary biology. Many methods are available and the most used are Maximum Entropy Method (MAXENT) and the Genetic Algorithm for Rule Set Production (GARP). Recent studies have shown that MAXENT perform better than GARP. Here we used the statistics methods of ROC - AUC (area under the Receiver Operating Characteristics curve) and bootstrap to evaluate the performance of GARP and MAXENT in generate potential distribution models for 39 species of New World coral snakes. We found that values of AUC for GARP ranged from 0.923 to 0.999, whereas those for MAXENT ranged from 0.877 to 0.999. On the whole, the differences in AUC were very small, but for 10 species GARP outperformed MAXENT. Means and standard deviations for 100 bootstrapped samples with sample sizes ranging from 3 to 30 species did not show any trends towards deviations from a zero difference in AUC values of GARP minus AUC values of MAXENT. Ours results suggest that further studies are still necessary to establish under which circumstances the statistical performance of the methods vary. However, it is also important to consider the possibility that this empirical inductive reasoning may fail in the end, because we almost certainly could not establish all potential scenarios generating variation in the relative performance of models.

  16. Coupling GIS spatial analysis and Ensemble Niche Modelling to investigate climate change-related threats to the Sicilian pond turtle Emys trinacris, an endangered species from the Mediterranean

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mattia Iannella

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available The pond turtle Emys trinacris is an endangered endemic species of Sicily showing a fragmented distribution throughout the main island. In this study, we applied “Ensemble Niche Modelling”, combining more classical statistical techniques as Generalized Linear Models and Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines with machine-learning approaches as Boosted Regression Trees and Maxent, to model the potential distribution of the species under current and future climatic conditions. Moreover, a “gap analysis” performed on both the species’ presence sites and the predictions from the Ensemble Models is proposed to integrate outputs from these models, in order to assess the conservation status of this threatened species in the context of biodiversity management. For this aim, four “Representative Concentration Pathways”, corresponding to different greenhouse gases emissions trajectories were considered to project the obtained models to both 2050 and 2070. Areas lost, gained or remaining stable for the target species in the projected models were calculated. E. trinacris’ potential distribution resulted to be significantly dependent upon precipitation-linked variables, mainly precipitation of wettest and coldest quarter. Future negative effects for the conservation of this species, because of more unstable precipitation patterns and extreme meteorological events, emerged from our analyses. Further, the sites currently inhabited by E. trinacris are, for more than a half, out of the Protected Areas network, highlighting an inadequate management of the species by the authorities responsible for its protection. Our results, therefore, suggest that in the next future the Sicilian pond turtle will need the utmost attention by the scientific community to avoid the imminent risk of extinction. Finally, the gap analysis performed in GIS environment resulted to be a very informative post-modeling technique, potentially applicable to the management

  17. The restoration of the endangered Sambucus palmensis after 30 years of conservation actions in the Garajonay National Park: genetic assessment and niche modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodríguez-Rodríguez, Priscila; Fernández de Castro, Alejandro G; Sosa, Pedro A

    2018-01-01

    The translocation of individuals or the reinforcement of populations are measures in the genetic rescue of endangered species. Although it can be controversial to decide which and how many individuals must be reintroduced, populations can benefit from reinforcements. Sambucus palmensis is a critically endangered endemic to the Canary Islands. During the past 30 years, the Garajonay National Park (La Gomera) has carried out an intensive program of translocations using cuttings, due to the low germination rates of seeds. To assess the effect of the restorations on the population genetics of S. palmensis in La Gomera, we collected 402 samples from all the restored sites and all known natural individuals, which were genotyped with seven microsatellite markers. In addition, we conducted a species distribution modeling approach to assess how restorations fit the ecological niche of the species. Results show that there is a high proportion of clone specimens due to the propagation method, and the natural clonal reproduction of the species. Nonetheless, the observed heterozygosity has increased with the restorations and there still are private alleles and unique genotypes in the natural populations that have not been considered in the restorations. The population of Liria constitutes a very important genetic reservoir for the species. To optimize future reintroductions, we have proposed a list of specimens that are suitable for the extraction of seeds or cuttings in a greenhouse, as well as new suitable areas obtained by the species distribution models.

  18. Cryptic elevational zonation in trapdoor spiders (Araneae, Antrodiaetidae, Aliatypus janus complex) from the California southern Sierra Nevada.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Starrett, James; Hayashi, Cheryl Y; Derkarabetian, Shahan; Hedin, Marshal

    2018-01-01

    The relative roles of ecological niche conservatism versus niche divergence in promoting montane speciation remains an important topic in biogeography. Here, our aim was to test whether lineage diversification in a species complex of trapdoor spiders corresponds with riverine barriers or with an ecological gradient associated with elevational tiering. Aliatypus janus was sampled from throughout its range, with emphasis on populations in the southern Sierra Nevada Mountains of California. We collected multi-locus genetic data to generate a species tree for A. janus and its close relatives. Coalescent based hypothesis tests were conducted to determine if genetic breaks within A. janus conform to riverine barriers. Ecological niche models (ENM) under current and Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) conditions were generated and hypothesis tests of niche conservatism and divergence were performed. Coalescent analyses reveal deeply divergent genetic lineages within A. janus, likely corresponding to cryptic species. Two primary lineages meet along an elevational gradient on the western slopes of the southern Sierra Nevada Mountains. ENMs under both current and LGM conditions indicate that these groups occupy largely non-overlapping niches. ENM hypothesis testing rejected niche identity between the two groups, and supported a sharp ecological gradient occurring where the groups meet. However, the niche similarity test indicated that the two groups may not inhabit different background niches. The Sierra Nevada Mountains provide a natural laboratory for simultaneously testing ecological niche divergence and conservatism and their role in speciation across a diverse range of taxa. Aliatypus janus represents a species complex with cryptic lineages that may have diverged due to parapatric speciation along an ecological gradient, or been maintained by the evolution of ecological niche differences following allopatric speciation. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. Development of a State-Wide 3-D Seismic Tomography Velocity Model for California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thurber, C. H.; Lin, G.; Zhang, H.; Hauksson, E.; Shearer, P.; Waldhauser, F.; Hardebeck, J.; Brocher, T.

    2007-12-01

    We report on progress towards the development of a state-wide tomographic model of the P-wave velocity for the crust and uppermost mantle of California. The dataset combines first arrival times from earthquakes and quarry blasts recorded on regional network stations and travel times of first arrivals from explosions and airguns recorded on profile receivers and network stations. The principal active-source datasets are Geysers-San Pablo Bay, Imperial Valley, Livermore, W. Mojave, Gilroy-Coyote Lake, Shasta region, Great Valley, Morro Bay, Mono Craters-Long Valley, PACE, S. Sierras, LARSE 1 and 2, Loma Prieta, BASIX, San Francisco Peninsula and Parkfield. Our beta-version model is coarse (uniform 30 km horizontal and variable vertical gridding) but is able to image the principal features in previous separate regional models for northern and southern California, such as the high-velocity subducting Gorda Plate, upper to middle crustal velocity highs beneath the Sierra Nevada and much of the Coast Ranges, the deep low-velocity basins of the Great Valley, Ventura, and Los Angeles, and a high- velocity body in the lower crust underlying the Great Valley. The new state-wide model has improved areal coverage compared to the previous models, and extends to greater depth due to the data at large epicentral distances. We plan a series of steps to improve the model. We are enlarging and calibrating the active-source dataset as we obtain additional picks from investigators and perform quality control analyses on the existing and new picks. We will also be adding data from more quarry blasts, mainly in northern California, following an identification and calibration procedure similar to Lin et al. (2006). Composite event construction (Lin et al., in press) will be carried out for northern California for use in conventional tomography. A major contribution of the state-wide model is the identification of earthquakes yielding arrival times at both the Northern California Seismic

  20. THE GERMLINE STEM CELL NICHE UNIT IN MAMMALIAN TESTES

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oatley, Jon M.; Brinster, Ralph L.

    2014-01-01

    This review addresses current understanding of the germline stem cell niche unit in mammalian testes. Spermatogenesis is a classic model of tissue-specific stem cell function relying on self-renewal and differentiation of spermatogonial stem cells (SSCs). These fate decisions are influenced by a niche microenvironment composed of a growth factor milieu that is provided by several testis somatic support cell populations. Investigations over the last two decades have identified key determinants of the SSC niche including cytokines that regulate SSC functions and support cells providing these factors, adhesion molecules that influence SSC homing, and developmental heterogeneity of the niche during postnatal aging. Emerging evidence suggests that Sertoli cells are a key support cell population influencing the formation and function of niches by secreting soluble factors and possibly orchestrating contributions of other support cells. Investigations with mice have shown that niche influence on SSC proliferation differs during early postnatal development and adulthood. Moreover, there is mounting evidence of an age-related decline in niche function, which is likely influenced by systemic factors. Defining the attributes of stem cell niches is key to developing methods to utilize these cells for regenerative medicine. The SSC population and associated niche comprise a valuable model system for study that provides fundamental knowledge about the biology of tissue-specific stem cells and their capacity to sustain homeostasis of regenerating tissue lineages. While the stem cell is essential for maintenance of all self-renewing tissues and has received considerable attention, the role of niche cells is at least as important and may prove to be more receptive to modification in regenerative medicine. PMID:22535892

  1. Compatible ecological niche signals between biological and archaeological datasets for late-surviving Neandertals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bible, Rachael C; Peterson, A Townsend

    2018-04-17

    To assess ecological niche similarity for biological and archaeological samples representing late-surviving Neandertals in Europe to evaluate the validity of combining these two types of data in ecological niche modeling analyses. Tests of niche conservatism were used to assess niche similarity and niche identity of samples of morphologically diagnostic Neandertal remains and Middle Paleolithic (MP) archaeological sites dating to the time period leading up to Neandertal extinction. Paleoenvironmental reconstructions for the Pre-H4 (43.3-40.2 ky cal BP) were used as environmental space analyses. Null hypotheses of niche similarity and identity of the two types of samples could not be rejected. As primary and secondary evidence of Neandertal occurrence during the Pre-H4 show high levels of niche similarity and identity, combining the two types of occurrence data to create larger samples for niche analyses is justified without the concern that different environmental signals could complicate future research. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  2. Niche-based modelling as a tool for predicting the risk of alien plant invasions at a global scale

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Thuiller, W.; Richardson, D. M.; Pyšek, Petr; Midgley, G. F.; Hughes, G. O.; Rouget, M.

    2005-01-01

    Roč. 11, - (2005), s. 2234-2250 ISSN 1354-1013 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA206/03/1216 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z60050516 Keywords : bioclimatic modelling * biological invasions * risk assessment Subject RIV: EF - Botanics Impact factor: 4.075, year: 2005

  3. Present and future ecological niche modeling of garter snake species from the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt

    Science.gov (United States)

    García-Vázquez, Uri; D’Addario, Maristella

    2018-01-01

    Land use and climate change are affecting the abundance and distribution of species. The Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt (TMVB) is a very diverse region due to geological history, geographic position, and climate. It is also one of the most disturbed regions in Mexico. Reptiles are particularly sensitive to environmental changes due to their low dispersal capacity and thermal ecology. In this study, we define the important environmental variables (considering climate, topography, and land use) and potential distribution (present and future) of the five Thamnophis species present in TMVB. To do so, we used the maximum entropy modeling software (MAXENT). First, we modeled to select the most important variables to explain the distribution of each species, then we modeled again using only the most important variables and projected these models to the future considering a middle-moderate climate change scenario (rcp45), and land use and vegetation variables for the year 2050 (generated according to land use changes that occurred between years 2002 and 2011). Arid vegetation had an important negative effect on habitat suitability for all species, and minimum temperature of the coldest month was important for four of the five species. Thamnophis cyrtopsis was the species with the lowest tolerance to minimum temperatures. The maximum temperature of the warmest month was important for T. scalaris and T. cyrtopsis. Low percentages of agriculture were positive for T. eques and T. melanogaster but, at higher values, agriculture had a negative effect on habitat suitability for both species. Elevation was the most important variable to explain T. eques and T. melanogaster potential distribution while distance to Abies forests was the most important variable for T. scalaris and T. scaliger. All species had a high proportion of their potential distribution in the TMVB. However, according to our models, all Thamnophis species will experience reductions in their potential

  4. A California statewide three-dimensional seismic velocity model from both absolute and differential times

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, G.; Thurber, C.H.; Zhang, H.; Hauksson, E.; Shearer, P.M.; Waldhauser, F.; Brocher, T.M.; Hardebeck, J.

    2010-01-01

    We obtain a seismic velocity model of the California crust and uppermost mantle using a regional-scale double-difference tomography algorithm. We begin by using absolute arrival-time picks to solve for a coarse three-dimensional (3D) P velocity (VP) model with a uniform 30 km horizontal node spacing, which we then use as the starting model for a finer-scale inversion using double-difference tomography applied to absolute and differential pick times. For computational reasons, we split the state into 5 subregions with a grid spacing of 10 to 20 km and assemble our final statewide VP model by stitching together these local models. We also solve for a statewide S-wave model using S picks from both the Southern California Seismic Network and USArray, assuming a starting model based on the VP results and a VP=VS ratio of 1.732. Our new model has improved areal coverage compared with previous models, extending 570 km in the SW-NE directionand 1320 km in the NW-SE direction. It also extends to greater depth due to the inclusion of substantial data at large epicentral distances. Our VP model generally agrees with previous separate regional models for northern and southern California, but we also observe some new features, such as high-velocity anomalies at shallow depths in the Klamath Mountains and Mount Shasta area, somewhat slow velocities in the northern Coast Ranges, and slow anomalies beneath the Sierra Nevada at midcrustal and greater depths. This model can be applied to a variety of regional-scale studies in California, such as developing a unified statewide earthquake location catalog and performing regional waveform modeling.

  5. The 2014 update to the National Seismic Hazard Model in California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Powers, Peter; Field, Edward H.

    2015-01-01

    The 2014 update to the U. S. Geological Survey National Seismic Hazard Model in California introduces a new earthquake rate model and new ground motion models (GMMs) that give rise to numerous changes to seismic hazard throughout the state. The updated earthquake rate model is the third version of the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3), wherein the rates of all ruptures are determined via a self-consistent inverse methodology. This approach accommodates multifault ruptures and reduces the overprediction of moderate earthquake rates exhibited by the previous model (UCERF2). UCERF3 introduces new faults, changes to slip or moment rates on existing faults, and adaptively smoothed gridded seismicity source models, all of which contribute to significant changes in hazard. New GMMs increase ground motion near large strike-slip faults and reduce hazard over dip-slip faults. The addition of very large strike-slip ruptures and decreased reverse fault rupture rates in UCERF3 further enhances these effects.

  6. Growth models for ponderosa pine: I. Yield of unthinned plantations in northern California.

    Science.gov (United States)

    William W. Oliver; Robert F. Powers

    1978-01-01

    Yields for high-survival, unthinned ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa Laws.) plantations in northern California are estimated. Stems of 367 trees in 12 plantations were analyzed to produce a growth model simulating stand yields. Diameter, basal area, and net cubic volume yields by Site Indices50 40 through 120 are tabulated for...

  7. Ecological niche modeling and land cover risk areas for rift valley fever vector, culex tritaeniorhynchus giles in Jazan, Saudi Arabia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sallam, Mohamed F; Al Ahmed, Azzam M; Abdel-Dayem, Mahmoud S; Abdullah, Mohamed A R

    2013-01-01

    The mosquito, Culex tritaeniorhynchus Giles is a prevalent and confirmed Rift Valley Fever virus (RVFV) vector. This vector, in association with Aedimorphus arabiensis (Patton), was responsible for causing the outbreak of 2000 in Jazan Province, Saudi Arabia. Larval occurrence records and a total of 19 bioclimatic and three topographic layers imported from Worldclim Database were used to predict the larval suitable breeding habitats for this vector in Jazan Province using ArcGIS ver.10 and MaxEnt modeling program. Also, a supervised land cover classification from SPOT5 imagery was developed to assess the land cover distribution within the suitable predicted habitats. Eleven bioclimatic and slope attributes were found to be the significant predictors for this larval suitable breeding habitat. Precipitation and temperature were strong predictors of mosquito distribution. Among six land cover classes, the linear regression model (LM) indicated wet muddy substrate is significantly associated with high-very high suitable predicted habitats (R(2) = 73.7%, Presearchers.

  8. Phylogeography of Thlaspi arvense (Brassicaceae in China Inferred from Chloroplast and Nuclear DNA Sequences and Ecological Niche Modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miao An

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Thlaspi arvense is a well-known annual farmland weed with worldwide distribution, which can be found from sea level to above 4000 m high on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP. In this paper, a phylogeographic history of T. arvense including 19 populations from China was inferred by using three chloroplast (cp DNA segments (trnL-trnF, rpl32-trnL and rps16 and one nuclear (n DNA segment (Fe-regulated transporter-like protein, ZIP. A total of 11 chloroplast haplotypes and six nuclear alleles were identified, and haplotypes unique to the QTP were recognized (C4, C5, C7 and N4. On the basis of molecular dating, haplotypes C4, C5 and C7 have separated from others around 1.58 Ma for cpDNA, which corresponds to the QTP uplift. In addition, this article suggests that the T. arvense populations in China are a mixture of diverged subpopulations as inferred by hT/vT test (hT ≤ vT, cpDNA and positive Tajima’s D values (1.87, 0.05 < p < 0.10 for cpDNA and 3.37, p < 0.01 for nDNA. Multimodality mismatch distribution curves and a relatively large shared area of suitable environmental conditions between the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM as well as the present time recognized by MaxEnt software reject the sudden expansion population model.

  9. Niche entrepreneurs in urban systems integration : On the role of individuals in niche formation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pesch, U.; Vernay, A.L.; van Bueren, E.M.; Pandis Iveroth, S

    2017-01-01

    In many sustainable urban innovation projects, the efforts, endurance and enthusiasm of individuals at key positions are considered a crucial factor for success. This article studies the role of individual agency in sociotechnical niches by using Kingdon’s agenda-setting model. Although strategic

  10. Mitochondrial DNA analyses and ecological niche modeling reveal post-LGM expansion of the Assam macaque (Macaca assamensis) in the foothills of Nepal Himalaya.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khanal, Laxman; Chalise, Mukesh K; He, Kai; Acharya, Bipin K; Kawamoto, Yoshi; Jiang, Xuelong

    2018-03-01

    Genetic diversity of a species is influenced by multiple factors, including the Quaternary glacial-interglacial cycles and geophysical barriers. Such factors are not yet well documented for fauna from the southern border of the Himalayan region. This study used mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) sequences and ecological niche modeling (ENM) to explore how the late Pleistocene climatic fluctuations and complex geography of the Himalayan region have shaped genetic diversity, population genetic structure, and demographic history of the Nepalese population of Assam macaques (Macaca assamensis) in the Himalayan foothills. A total of 277 fecal samples were collected from 39 wild troops over almost the entire distribution of the species in Nepal. The mtDNA fragment encompassing the complete control region (1121 bp) was recovered from 208 samples, thus defining 54 haplotypes. Results showed low nucleotide diversity (0.0075 ± SD 0.0001) but high haplotype diversity (0.965 ± SD 0.004). The mtDNA sequences revealed a shallow population genetic structure with a moderate but statistically significant effect of isolation by distance. Demographic history analyses using mtDNA sequences suggested a post-pleistocene population expansion. Paleodistribution reconstruction projected that the potential habitat of the Assam macaque was confined to the lower elevations of central Nepal during the Last Glacial Maximum. With the onset of the Holocene climatic optimum, the glacial refugia population experienced eastward range expansion to higher elevations. We conclude that the low genetic diversity and shallow population genetic structure of the Assam macaque population in the Nepal Himalaya region are the consequence of recent demographic and spatial expansion. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  11. Circum-Mediterranean phylogeography of a bat coupled with past environmental niche modeling: A new paradigm for the recolonization of Europe?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bilgin, Raşit; Gürün, Kanat; Rebelo, Hugo; Puechmaille, Sebastien J; Maracı, Öncü; Presetnik, Primoz; Benda, Petr; Hulva, Pavel; Ibáñez, Carlos; Hamidovic, Daniela; Fressel, Norma; Horáček, Ivan; Karataş, Ayşegül; Karataş, Ahmet; Allegrini, Benjamin; Georgiakakis, Panagiotis; Gazaryan, Suren; Nagy, Zoltan L; Abi-Said, Mounir; Lučan, Radek K; Bartonička, Tomáš; Nicolaou, Haris; Scaravelli, Dino; Karapandža, Branko; Uhrin, Marcel; Paunović, Milan; Juste, Javier

    2016-06-01

    The isolation of populations in the Iberian, Italian and Balkan peninsulas during the ice ages define four main paradigms that explain much of the known distribution of intraspecific genetic diversity in Europe. In this study we investigated the phylogeography of a wide-spread bat species, the bent-winged bat, Miniopterus schreibersii around the Mediterranean basin and in the Caucasus. Environmental Niche Modeling (ENM) analysis was applied to predict both the current distribution of the species and its distribution during the last glacial maximum (LGM). The combination of genetics and ENM results suggest that the populations of M. schreibersii in Europe, the Caucasus and Anatolia went extinct during the LGM, and the refugium for the species was a relatively small area to the east of the Levantine Sea, corresponding to the Mediterranean coasts of present-day Syria, Lebanon, Israel, and northeastern and northwestern Egypt. Subsequently the species first repopulated Anatolia, diversified there, and afterwards expanded into the Caucasus, continental Europe and North Africa after the end of the LGM. The fossil record in Iberia and the ENM results indicate continuous presence of Miniopterus in this peninsula that most probably was related to the Maghrebian lineage during the LGM, which did not persist afterwards. Using our results combined with similar findings in previous studies, we propose a new paradigm explaining the general distribution of genetic diversity in Europe involving the recolonization of the continent, with the main contribution from refugial populations in Anatolia and the Middle East. The study shows how genetics and ENM approaches can complement each other in providing a more detailed picture of intraspecific evolution. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  12. Using niche-modelling and species-specific cost analyses to determine a multispecies corridor in a fragmented landscape

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zurano, Juan Pablo; Selleski, Nicole; Schneider, Rosio G.

    2017-01-01

    types independent of the degree of legal protection. These data used with multifocal GIS analyses balance the varying degree of overlap and unique properties among them allowing for comprehensive conservation strategies to be developed relatively rapidly. Our comprehensive approach serves as a model to other regions faced with habitat loss and lack of data. The five carnivores focused on in our study have wide ranges, so the results from this study can be expanded and combined with surrounding countries, with analyses at the species or community level. PMID:28841692

  13. Behavioural manipulation of insect hosts by Baculoviridae as a process of niche construction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamblin, Steven; Tanaka, Mark M

    2013-08-16

    Niche construction has received increasing attention in recent years as a vital force in evolution and examples of niche construction have been identified in a wide variety of taxa, but viruses are conspicuously absent. In this study we explore how niche construction can lead to viruses engineering their hosts (including behavioural manipulation) with feedback on selective pressures for viral transmission and virulence. To illustrate this concept we focus on Baculoviridae, a family of invertebrate viruses that have evolved to modify the feeding behaviour of their lepidopteran hosts and liquefy their cadavers as part of the course of infection. We present a mathematical model showing how niche construction leads to feedback from the behavioural manipulation to the liquefaction of the host, linking the evolution of both of these traits, and show how this association arises from the action of niche construction. Model results show that niche construction is plausible in this system and delineates the conditions under which niche construction will occur. Niche construction in this system is also shown to be sensitive to parameter values that reflect ecological forces. Our model demonstrates that niche construction can be a potent force in viral evolution and can lead to the acquisition and maintenance of the behavioural manipulation and liquefaction traits in Baculoviridae via the niche constructing effects on the host. These results show the potential for niche construction theory to provide new insights into viral evolution.

  14. Cellular population dynamics control the robustness of the stem cell niche

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adam L. MacLean

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Within populations of cells, fate decisions are controlled by an indeterminate combination of cell-intrinsic and cell-extrinsic factors. In the case of stem cells, the stem cell niche is believed to maintain ‘stemness’ through communication and interactions between the stem cells and one or more other cell-types that contribute to the niche conditions. To investigate the robustness of cell fate decisions in the stem cell hierarchy and the role that the niche plays, we introduce simple mathematical models of stem and progenitor cells, their progeny and their interplay in the niche. These models capture the fundamental processes of proliferation and differentiation and allow us to consider alternative possibilities regarding how niche-mediated signalling feedback regulates the niche dynamics. Generalised stability analysis of these stem cell niche systems enables us to describe the stability properties of each model. We find that although the number of feasible states depends on the model, their probabilities of stability in general do not: stem cell–niche models are stable across a wide range of parameters. We demonstrate that niche-mediated feedback increases the number of stable steady states, and show how distinct cell states have distinct branching characteristics. The ecological feedback and interactions mediated by the stem cell niche thus lend (surprisingly high levels of robustness to the stem and progenitor cell population dynamics. Furthermore, cell–cell interactions are sufficient for populations of stem cells and their progeny to achieve stability and maintain homeostasis. We show that the robustness of the niche – and hence of the stem cell pool in the niche – depends only weakly, if at all, on the complexity of the niche make-up: simple as well as complicated niche systems are capable of supporting robust and stable stem cell dynamics.

  15. Niche-specific cognitive strategies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hulgard, K.; Ratcliffe, J. M.

    2014-01-01

    Related species with different diets are predicted to rely on different cognitive strategies: those best suited for locating available and appropriate foods. Here we tested two predictions of the niche-specific cognitive strategies hypothesis in bats, which suggests that predatory species should...... the niche-specific cognitive strategies hypothesis and suggest that for gleaning and clutter-resistant aerial hawking bats, learning to associate shape with food interferes with subsequent spatial memory learning....

  16. Modeling the yield potential of dryland canola under current and future climates in California

    Science.gov (United States)

    George, N.; Kaffka, S.; Beeck, C.; Bucaram, S.; Zhang, J.

    2012-12-01

    Models predict that the climate of California will become hotter, drier and more variable under future climate change scenarios. This will lead to both increased irrigation demand and reduced irrigation water availability. In addition, it is predicted that most common Californian crops will suffer a concomitant decline in productivity. To remain productive and economically viable, future agricultural systems will need to have greater water use efficiency, tolerance of high temperatures, and tolerance of more erratic temperature and rainfall patterns. Canola (Brassica napus) is the third most important oilseed globally, supporting large and well-established agricultural industries in Canada, Europe and Australia. It is an agronomically useful and economically valuable crop, with multiple end markets, that can be grown in California as a dryland winter rotation with little to no irrigation demand. This gives canola great potential as a new crop for Californian farmers both now and as the climate changes. Given practical and financial limitations it is not always possible to immediately or widely evaluate a crop in a new region. Crop production models are therefore valuable tools for assessing the potential of new crops, better targeting further field research, and refining research questions. APSIM is a modular modeling framework developed by the Agricultural Production Systems Research Unit in Australia, it combines biophysical and management modules to simulate cropping systems. This study was undertaken to examine the yield potential of Australian canola varieties having different water requirements and maturity classes in California using APSIM. The objective of the work was to identify the agricultural regions of California most ideally suited to the production of Australian cultivars of canola and to simulate the production of canola in these regions to estimate yield-potential. This will establish whether the introduction and in-field evaluation of better

  17. Modeling the Choice of Telecommuting Frequency in California: An Exploratory Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Mannering, Jill S.; Mokhtarian, Patricia L.

    1995-01-01

    This study explores the individual's choice of telecommuting frequency as a function of demographic, travel, work and attitudinal factors. To do this, multinomial logit models are estimated using data collected in a recent survey of employees from three public agencies in California. Separate models are estimated, one for data collected from the Franchise Tax Board in Sacramento, one for data from the Public Utilities Commission in San Francisco, and one for data collected from employees of t...

  18. Exploring climate niches of ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa Douglas ex Lawson) haplotypes in the western United States: Implications for evolutionary history and conservation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shinneman, Douglas; Means, Robert E.; Potter, Kevin M.; Hipkins, Valerie D.

    2016-01-01

    Ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa Douglas ex Lawson) occupies montane environments throughout western North America, where it is both an ecologically and economically important tree species. A recent study using mitochondrial DNA analysis demonstrated substantial genetic variation among ponderosa pine populations in the western U.S., identifying 10 haplotypes with unique evolutionary lineages that generally correspond spatially with distributions of the Pacific (P. p. var. ponderosa) and Rocky Mountain (P. p. var. scopulorum) varieties. To elucidate the role of climate in shaping the phylogeographic history of ponderosa pine, we used nonparametric multiplicative regression to develop predictive climate niche models for two varieties and 10 haplotypes and to hindcast potential distribution of the varieties during the last glacial maximum (LGM), ~22,000 yr BP. Our climate niche models performed well for the varieties, but haplotype models were constrained in some cases by small datasets and unmeasured microclimate influences. The models suggest strong relationships between genetic lineages and climate. Particularly evident was the role of seasonal precipitation balance in most models, with winter- and summer-dominated precipitation regimes strongly associated with P. p. vars. ponderosa and scopulorum, respectively. Indeed, where present-day climate niches overlap between the varieties, introgression of two haplotypes also occurs along a steep clinal divide in western Montana. Reconstructed climate niches for the LGM suggest potentially suitable climate existed for the Pacific variety in the California Floristic province, the Great Basin, and Arizona highlands, while suitable climate for the Rocky Mountain variety may have existed across the southwestern interior highlands. These findings underscore potentially unique phylogeographic origins of modern ponderosa pine evolutionary lineages, including potential adaptations to Pleistocene climates associated with

  19. Exploring Climate Niches of Ponderosa Pine (Pinus ponderosa Douglas ex Lawson) Haplotypes in the Western United States: Implications for Evolutionary History and Conservation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shinneman, Douglas J; Means, Robert E; Potter, Kevin M; Hipkins, Valerie D

    2016-01-01

    Ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa Douglas ex Lawson) occupies montane environments throughout western North America, where it is both an ecologically and economically important tree species. A recent study using mitochondrial DNA analysis demonstrated substantial genetic variation among ponderosa pine populations in the western U.S., identifying 10 haplotypes with unique evolutionary lineages that generally correspond spatially with distributions of the Pacific (P. p. var. ponderosa) and Rocky Mountain (P. p. var. scopulorum) varieties. To elucidate the role of climate in shaping the phylogeographic history of ponderosa pine, we used nonparametric multiplicative regression to develop predictive climate niche models for two varieties and 10 haplotypes and to hindcast potential distribution of the varieties during the last glacial maximum (LGM), ~22,000 yr BP. Our climate niche models performed well for the varieties, but haplotype models were constrained in some cases by small datasets and unmeasured microclimate influences. The models suggest strong relationships between genetic lineages and climate. Particularly evident was the role of seasonal precipitation balance in most models, with winter- and summer-dominated precipitation regimes strongly associated with P. p. vars. ponderosa and scopulorum, respectively. Indeed, where present-day climate niches overlap between the varieties, introgression of two haplotypes also occurs along a steep clinal divide in western Montana. Reconstructed climate niches for the LGM suggest potentially suitable climate existed for the Pacific variety in the California Floristic province, the Great Basin, and Arizona highlands, while suitable climate for the Rocky Mountain variety may have existed across the southwestern interior highlands. These findings underscore potentially unique phylogeographic origins of modern ponderosa pine evolutionary lineages, including potential adaptations to Pleistocene climates associated with discrete

  20. Exploring Climate Niches of Ponderosa Pine (Pinus ponderosa Douglas ex Lawson Haplotypes in the Western United States: Implications for Evolutionary History and Conservation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Douglas J Shinneman

    Full Text Available Ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa Douglas ex Lawson occupies montane environments throughout western North America, where it is both an ecologically and economically important tree species. A recent study using mitochondrial DNA analysis demonstrated substantial genetic variation among ponderosa pine populations in the western U.S., identifying 10 haplotypes with unique evolutionary lineages that generally correspond spatially with distributions of the Pacific (P. p. var. ponderosa and Rocky Mountain (P. p. var. scopulorum varieties. To elucidate the role of climate in shaping the phylogeographic history of ponderosa pine, we used nonparametric multiplicative regression to develop predictive climate niche models for two varieties and 10 haplotypes and to hindcast potential distribution of the varieties during the last glacial maximum (LGM, ~22,000 yr BP. Our climate niche models performed well for the varieties, but haplotype models were constrained in some cases by small datasets and unmeasured microclimate influences. The models suggest strong relationships between genetic lineages and climate. Particularly evident was the role of seasonal precipitation balance in most models, with winter- and summer-dominated precipitation regimes strongly associated with P. p. vars. ponderosa and scopulorum, respectively. Indeed, where present-day climate niches overlap between the varieties, introgression of two haplotypes also occurs along a steep clinal divide in western Montana. Reconstructed climate niches for the LGM suggest potentially suitable climate existed for the Pacific variety in the California Floristic province, the Great Basin, and Arizona highlands, while suitable climate for the Rocky Mountain variety may have existed across the southwestern interior highlands. These findings underscore potentially unique phylogeographic origins of modern ponderosa pine evolutionary lineages, including potential adaptations to Pleistocene climates associated

  1. Stem cell dynamics in the hair follicle niche

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rompolas, Panteleimon; Greco, Valentina

    2014-01-01

    Hair follicles are skin appendages of the mammalian skin that have the ability to periodically and stereotypically regenerate in order to continuously produce new hair over our lifetime. The ability of the hair follicle to regenerate is due to the presence of stem cells that along with other cell populations and non-cellular components, including molecular signals and extracellular material, make up a niche microenvironment. Mounting evidence suggests that the niche is critical for regulating stem cell behavior and thus the process of regeneration. Here we review the literature concerning past and current studies that have utilized mouse genetic models, combined with other approaches to dissect the molecular and cellular composition of the hair follicle niche. We also discuss our current understanding of how stem cells operate within the niche during the process of tissue regeneration and the factors that regulate their behavior. PMID:24361866

  2. An open source hydroeconomic model for California's water supply system: PyVIN

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dogan, M. S.; White, E.; Herman, J. D.; Hart, Q.; Merz, J.; Medellin-Azuara, J.; Lund, J. R.

    2016-12-01

    Models help operators and decision makers explore and compare different management and policy alternatives, better allocate scarce resources, and predict the future behavior of existing or proposed water systems. Hydroeconomic models are useful tools to increase benefits or decrease costs of managing water. Bringing hydrology and economics together, these models provide a framework for different disciplines that share similar objectives. This work proposes a new model to evaluate operation and adaptation strategies under existing and future hydrologic conditions for California's interconnected water system. This model combines the network structure of CALVIN, a statewide optimization model for California's water infrastructure, along with an open source solver written in the Python programming language. With the flexibilities of the model, reservoir operations, including water supply and hydropower, groundwater pumping, and the Delta water operations and requirements can now be better represented. Given time series of hydrologic inputs to the model, typical outputs include urban, agricultural and wildlife refuge water deliveries and shortage costs, conjunctive use of surface and groundwater systems, and insights into policy and management decisions, such as capacity expansion and groundwater management policies. Water market operations also represented in the model, allocating water from lower-valued users to higher-valued users. PyVIN serves as a cross-platform, extensible model to evaluate systemwide water operations. PyVIN separates data from the model structure, enabling model to be easily applied to other parts of the world where water is a scarce resource.

  3. Climate, niche evolution, and diversification of the "bird-cage" evening primroses (Oenothera, sections Anogra and Kleinia).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evans, Margaret E K; Smith, Stephen A; Flynn, Rachel S; Donoghue, Michael J

    2009-02-01

    We integrate climatic niche models and dated phylogenies to characterize the evolution of climatic niches in Oenothera sections Anogra and Kleinia (Onagraceae), and from that we make inferences on diversification in relation to climate. The evolution of climatic tolerances in Anogra + Kleinia has been heterogeneous, across phylogenetic groups and across different dimensions of climate. All the extant taxa occur in semiarid to arid conditions (annual precipitation of 10.1-49.1 cm and high temperatures in the warmest month of 28.5 degrees-40.1 degrees C), but there is striking variation among taxa in their climatic tolerances, especially temperature (minimum temperatures in the coldest month of -14.0 degrees to 5.3 degrees C) and summer versus winter precipitation (precipitation in the warmest quarter of 0.6-19.4 cm). Climatic disparity is especially pronounced in two subclades (californica, deltoides) that radiated in the southwestern United States and California, apparently including both divergent and convergent evolution of climatic tolerances. This niche evolution is remarkable, given the probable timescale of the radiation (approximately 1 million years). We suggest that the spatiotemporal climatic heterogeneity of western North America has served as a driver of diversification. Our data are also consistent with Axelrod's hypothesis that the spread of arid conditions in western North America stimulated diversification of arid-adapted lineages.

  4. Phylogeography and Ecological Niche Modeling Reveal Reduced Genetic Diversity and Colonization Patterns of Skunk Cabbage (Symplocarpus foetidus; Araceae From Glacial Refugia in Eastern North America

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Seon-Hee Kim

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Alternating glacial and interglacial periods during the Quaternary have dramatically affected the distribution and population genetic structure of plant and animal species throughout the northern hemisphere. Surprisingly, little is known about the post-glacial recolonization history of wetland herbaceous perennials that are widely distributed in the understory of deciduous or mixed deciduous-evergreen forests in eastern North America. In this study, we investigated infraspecific variation among 32 populations of skunk cabbage, Symplocarpus foetidus, to test the hypothesis that the extant species diversity of skunk cabbage is the result of a post-glacial range expansion from southern refugia during the Quaternary Ice Age. A total of 4041 base pairs (bp of the chloroplast intergenic spacer region (cpDNA was sequenced from 485 individuals sampled from glaciated (18 populations, 275 individuals and unglaciated (14 populations, 210 individuals regions east and west of the Appalachian Mountains. Haplotype number, haplotype diversity, and nucleotide diversity were calculated, and genetic variation within and among populations was assessed by analysis of molecular variance (AMOVA. The geographic pattern of genetic differentiation was further investigated with a spatial analysis of molecular variance (SAMOVA. A total of eight haplotypes and three genetic groups (SAMOVA were recovered and a much higher haplotype number (eight haplotypes and haplotype diversity (0.7425 was observed in unglaciated compared to glaciated populations (five haplotypes, haplotype diversity = 0.6099. All haplotypes found in glaciated regions represented a subset of haplotypes found in unglaciated regions. Haplotypes of S. foetidus likely diverged during the Tertiary (mid-Miocene and late Pliocene, predating the last glacial maximum (LGM. Predictions based on ecological niche modeling (ENM suggested that there was considerably less suitable habitat for skunk cabbage during the LGM

  5. Analysis of Eddy Resolving Model of the California Current System

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Cipriano, Nicholas

    1998-01-01

    A high-resolution, multi-level, primitive equation ocean model is used to investigate the combined role of seasonal wind forcing, thermohaline gradients, and coastline irregularities on the formation...

  6. U.S. Coastal Relief Model - Southern California

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — NGDC's U.S. Coastal Relief Model (CRM) provides the first comprehensive view of the U.S. coastal zone integrating offshore bathymetry with land topography into a...

  7. U.S. Coastal Relief Model - Southern California Version 2

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — NGDC's U.S. Coastal Relief Model (CRM) provides a comprehensive view of the U.S. coastal zone integrating offshore bathymetry with land topography into a seamless...

  8. Port San Luis, California Coastal Digital Elevation Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — NOAA's National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) is building high-resolution digital elevation models (DEMs) for select U.S. coastal regions. These integrated...

  9. Guadalupe River, California, Sedimentation Study. Numerical Model Investigation

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Copeland, Ronald

    2002-01-01

    A numerical model study was conducted to evaluate the potential impact that the Guadalupe River flood-control project would have on channel stability in terms of channel aggradation and degradation...

  10. Mammalian niche conservation through deep time.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Larisa R G DeSantis

    Full Text Available Climate change alters species distributions, causing plants and animals to move north or to higher elevations with current warming. Bioclimatic models predict species distributions based on extant realized niches and assume niche conservation. Here, we evaluate if proxies for niches (i.e., range areas are conserved at the family level through deep time, from the Eocene to the Pleistocene. We analyze the occurrence of all mammalian families in the continental USA, calculating range area, percent range area occupied, range area rank, and range polygon centroids during each epoch. Percent range area occupied significantly increases from the Oligocene to the Miocene and again from the Pliocene to the Pleistocene; however, mammalian families maintain statistical concordance between rank orders across time. Families with greater taxonomic diversity occupy a greater percent of available range area during each epoch and net changes in taxonomic diversity are significantly positively related to changes in percent range area occupied from the Eocene to the Pleistocene. Furthermore, gains and losses in generic and species diversity are remarkably consistent with ~2.3 species gained per generic increase. Centroids demonstrate southeastern shifts from the Eocene through the Pleistocene that may correspond to major environmental events and/or climate changes during the Cenozoic. These results demonstrate range conservation at the family level and support the idea that niche conservation at higher taxonomic levels operates over deep time and may be controlled by life history traits. Furthermore, families containing megafauna and/or terminal Pleistocene extinction victims do not incur significantly greater declines in range area rank than families containing only smaller taxa and/or only survivors, from the Pliocene to Pleistocene. Collectively, these data evince the resilience of families to climate and/or environmental change in deep time, the absence of

  11. Niche conservatism in Gynandropaa frogs on the southeastern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Junhua; Broennimann, Olivier; Guisan, Antoine; Wang, Bin; Huang, Yan; Jiang, Jianping

    2016-09-07

    The role of ecological niche in lineage diversification has been the subject of long-standing interest of ecologists and evolutionary biologists. Gynandropaa frogs diversified into three independent clades endemic to the southeastern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. Here, we address the question whether these clades kept the same niche after separation, and what it tells us about possible diversification processes. We applied predictions in geographical (G)-space and tests of niche conservatism in environmental (E)-space. Niche models in G-space indicate separate regions with high suitability for the different clades, with some potential areas of sympatry. While the pair of central and eastern clades displayed the largest niche overlap for most variables, and strict niche equivalency was rejected for all clade-pairs, we found no strong evidence for niche divergence, but rather the signature of niche conservatism compared to null models in E-space. These results suggest a common ancestral ecological niche, and as such give good support to divergence through allopatric speciation, but alternative explanations are also possible. Our findings illustrate how testing for niche conservatism in lineage diversification can provide insights into underlying speciation processes, and how this information may guide further research and conservation practices, as illustrated here for amphibians on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau.

  12. A test of the California competency-based differentiated role model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keating, Sarah B; Rutledge, Dana N; Sargent, Arlene; Walker, Polly

    2003-01-01

    To address the incongruence between the expectations of nursing service and education in California, the Education Industry Interface Task Force of the California Strategic Planning Committee for Nursing developed descriptions to assist employers and educators in clearly differentiating practice and educational competencies. The completion of the Competency-Based Role Differentiation Model resulted in the need to test the model for its utility in the service setting, in education, and for career planning for nurses. Three alpha demonstration sites were selected based on representative geographical regions of California. The sites were composed of tri-partnerships consisting of a medical center, an associate degree in nursing program, and a baccalaureate nursing program. Observers rated senior students and new graduates in medical-surgical units on their behaviors in teacher and leadership care provider and care coordinator roles. The alpha demonstration study results were as expected. That is, senior students practice predominantly at a novice level in teacher and management/leadership care provider functions and new graduates practice predominately at the competent level. New graduates are more likely to take on novice and competent care coordinator roles. The CBRDM may be useful for practice and education settings to evaluate student and nurse performance, to define role expectations, and to identify the preparation necessary for the roles. It is useful for all of nursing as it continues to define its levels of practice and their relationship to on-the-job performance, curriculum development, and carrier planning.

  13. An introduction to niche construction theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laland, Kevin; Matthews, Blake; Feldman, Marcus W

    Niche construction refers to the modification of selective environments by organisms. Theoretical and empirical studies of niche construction are increasing in importance as foci in evolutionary ecology. This special edition presents theoretical and empirical research that illustrates the significance of niche construction to the field. Here we set the scene for the following papers by (1) discussing the history of niche construction research, (2) providing clear definitions that distinguish niche construction from related concepts such as ecosystem engineering and the extended phenotype, (3) providing a brief summary of the findings of niche construction research, (4) discussing the contribution of niche construction and ecological inheritance to (a) expanded notions of inheritance, and (b) the extended evolutionary synthesis, and (5) briefly touching on some of the issues that underlie the controversies over niche construction.

  14. Niche conservatism and phylogenetic clustering in a tribe of arid-adapted marsupial mice, the Sminthopsini.

    Science.gov (United States)

    García-Navas, Vicente; Westerman, Michael

    2018-05-28

    The progressive expansion of the Australian arid zone during the last 20 Ma appears to have spurred the diversification of several families of plants, vertebrates and invertebrates, yet such taxonomic groups appear to show limited niche radiation. Here, we test whether speciation is associated with niche conservatism (constraints on ecological divergence) or niche divergence in a tribe of marsupial mice (Sminthopsini; 23 taxa) that includes the most speciose genus of living dasyurids, the sminthopsins. To that end, we integrated phylogenetic data with ecological niche modelling, to enable us to reconstruct the evolution of climatic suitability within Sminthopsini. Niche overlap among species was low-moderate (but generally higher than expected given environmental background similarity), and the degree of phylogenetic clustering increased with aridity. Climatic niche reconstruction illustrates that there has been little apparent evolution of climatic tolerance within clades. Accordingly, climatic disparity tends to be accumulated among clades, suggesting considerable niche conservatism. Our results also indicate that evolution of climatic tolerances has been heterogeneous across different dimensions of climate (temperature vs. precipitation) and across phylogenetic clusters (Sminthopsis murina group vs. other groups). Although some results point to the existence of shifts in climatic niches during the speciation of sminthopsins, our study provides evidence for substantial phylogenetic niche conservatism in the group. We conclude that niche diversification had a low impact on the speciation of this tribe of small, but highly mobile marsupials. © 2018 European Society For Evolutionary Biology. Journal of Evolutionary Biology © 2018 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.

  15. The niche party concept and its measurement

    OpenAIRE

    Meyer, Thomas M; Miller, Bernhard

    2015-01-01

    The concept of the niche party has become increasingly popular in analyses of party competition. Yet, existing approaches vary in their definitions and their measurement approaches. We propose using a minimal definition that allows us to compare political parties in terms of their ?nicheness?. We argue that the conceptual core of the niche party concept is based on issue emphasis and that a niche party emphasizes policy areas neglected by its rivals. Based on this definition, we propose a con...

  16. Using seabird habitat modeling to inform marine spatial planning in central California's National Marine Sanctuaries.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jennifer McGowan

    Full Text Available Understanding seabird habitat preferences is critical to future wildlife conservation and threat mitigation in California. The objective of this study was to investigate drivers of seabird habitat selection within the Gulf of the Farallones and Cordell Bank National Marine Sanctuaries to identify areas for targeted conservation planning. We used seabird abundance data collected by the Applied California Current Ecosystem Studies Program (ACCESS from 2004-2011. We used zero-inflated negative binomial regression to model species abundance and distribution as a function of near surface ocean water properties, distances to geographic features and oceanographic climate indices to identify patterns in foraging habitat selection. We evaluated seasonal, inter-annual and species-specific variability of at-sea distributions for the five most abundant seabirds nesting on the Farallon Islands: western gull (Larus occidentalis, common murre (Uria aalge, Cassin's auklet (Ptychorampus aleuticus, rhinoceros auklet (Cerorhinca monocerata and Brandt's cormorant (Phalacrocorax penicillatus. The waters in the vicinity of Cordell Bank and the continental shelf east of the Farallon Islands emerged as persistent and highly selected foraging areas across all species. Further, we conducted a spatial prioritization exercise to optimize seabird conservation areas with and without considering impacts of current human activities. We explored three conservation scenarios where 10, 30 and 50 percent of highly selected, species-specific foraging areas would be conserved. We compared and contrasted results in relation to existing marine protected areas (MPAs and the future alternative energy footprint identified by the California Ocean Uses Atlas. Our results show that the majority of highly selected seabird habitat lies outside of state MPAs where threats from shipping, oil spills, and offshore energy development remain. This analysis accentuates the need for innovative marine

  17. Photochemical modeling in California with two chemical mechanisms: model intercomparison and response to emission reductions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cai, Chenxia; Kelly, James T; Avise, Jeremy C; Kaduwela, Ajith P; Stockwell, William R

    2011-05-01

    An updated version of the Statewide Air Pollution Research Center (SAPRC) chemical mechanism (SAPRC07C) was implemented into the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) version 4.6. CMAQ simulations using SAPRC07C and the previously released version, SAPRC99, were performed and compared for an episode during July-August, 2000. Ozone (O3) predictions of the SAPRC07C simulation are generally lower than those of the SAPRC99 simulation in the key areas of central and southern California, especially in areas where modeled concentrations are greater than the federal 8-hr O3 standard of 75 parts per billion (ppb) and/or when the volatile organic compound (VOC)/nitrogen oxides (NOx) ratio is less than 13. The relative changes of ozone production efficiency (OPE) against the VOC/NOx ratio at 46 sites indicate that the OPE is reduced in SAPRC07C compared with SAPRC99 at most sites by as much as approximately 22%. The SAPRC99 and SAPRC07C mechanisms respond similarly to 20% reductions in anthropogenic VOC emissions. The response of the mechanisms to 20% NOx emissions reductions can be grouped into three cases. In case 1, in which both mechanisms show a decrease in daily maximum 8-hr O3 concentration with decreasing NOx emissions, the O3 decrease in SAPRC07C is smaller. In case 2, in which both mechanisms show an increase in O3 with decreasing NOx emissions, the O3 increase is larger in SAPRC07C. In case 3, SAPRC07C simulates an increase in O3 in response to reduced NOx emissions whereas SAPRC99 simulates a decrease in O3 for the same region. As a result, the areas where NOx controls would be disbeneficial are spatially expanded in SAPRC07C. Although the results presented here are valuable for understanding differences in predictions and model response for SAPRC99 and SAPRC07C, the study did not evaluate the impact of mechanism differences in the context of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's guidance for using numerical models in demonstrating air quality attainment

  18. Tectonoestratigraphic and Thermal Models of the Tiburon and Wagner Basins, northern Gulf of California Rift System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Contreras, J.; Ramirez Zerpa, N. A.; Negrete-Aranda, R.

    2014-12-01

    The northern Gulf of California Rift System consist sofa series faults that accommodate both normal and strike-slip motion. The faults formed a series of half-greens filled with more than 7 km of siliciclastic suc­cessions. Here, we present tectonostratigraphic and heat flow models for the Tiburón basin, in the southern part of the system, and the Wag­ner basin in the north. The models are constrained by two-dimensional seis­mic lines and by two deep boreholes drilled by PEMEX­-PEP. Analysis of the seismic lines and models' results show that: (i) subsidence of the basins is controlled by high-angle normal faults and by flow of the lower crust, (ii) basins share a common history, and (iii) there are significant differences in the way brittle strain was partitioned in the basins, a feature frequently observed in rift basins. On one hand, the bounding faults of the Tiburón basin have a nested geometry and became active following a west-to-east sequence of activation. The Tiburon half-graben was formed by two pulses of fault activity. One took place during the protogulf extensional phase in the Miocene and the other during the opening of Gulf of California in the Pleistocene. On the other hand, the Wagner basin is the result of two fault generations. During the late-to middle Miocene, the west-dipping Cerro Prieto and San Felipe faults formed a domino array. Then, during the Pleistocene the Consag and Wagner faults dissected the hanging-wall of the Cerro Prieto fault forming the modern Wagner basin. Thermal modeling of the deep borehole temperatures suggests that the heat flow in these basins in the order of 110 mW/m2 which is in agreement with superficial heat flow measurements in the northern Gulf of California Rift System.

  19. Identification of high risk areas for avian influenza outbreaks in California using disease distribution models.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jaber Belkhiria

    Full Text Available The coexistence of different types of poultry operations such as free range and backyard flocks, large commercial indoor farms and live bird markets, as well as the presence of many areas where wild and domestic birds co-exist, make California susceptible to avian influenza outbreaks. The 2014-2015 highly pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI outbreaks affecting California and other states in the United States have underscored the need for solutions to protect the US poultry industry against this devastating disease. We applied disease distribution models to predict where Avian influenza is likely to occur and the risk for HPAI outbreaks is highest. We used observations on the presence of Low Pathogenic Avian influenza virus (LPAI in waterfowl or water samples at 355 locations throughout the state and environmental variables relevant to the disease epidemiology. We used two algorithms, Random Forest and MaxEnt, and two data-sets Presence-Background and Presence-Absence data. The models performed well (AUCc > 0.7 for testing data, particularly those using Presence-Background data (AUCc > 0.85. Spatial predictions were similar between algorithms, but there were large differences between the predictions with Presence-Absence and Presence-Background data. Overall, predictors that contributed most to the models included land cover, distance to coast, and broiler farm density. Models successfully identified several counties as high-to-intermediate risk out of the 8 counties with observed outbreaks during the 2014-2015 HPAI epizootics. This study provides further insights into the spatial epidemiology of AI in California, and the high spatial resolution maps may be useful to guide risk-based surveillance and outreach efforts.

  20. Niche energy markets in rural areas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Walsh, M.; McCarthy, S.

    1996-01-01

    The objective of this project is the development of a standard methodology for integrating non-food crops in rural areas with niche energy markets. This has involved a number of steps including (i) identification of 3 niche markets for energy crops which are of common interest to the partners, (ii) application of the standard costing methodology to investigate these three niche markets and (iii) comparison of the results from this work in three workshops (one for each market). Three tightly defined niche markets were identified; these were chosen following an examination of the national energy marekts in each of the partners countries (Ireland, Germany, Netherlands, UK, Greece and Portugal). This paper gives an overview of the national energy markets which were examined. The three niche markets are introduced and the reasons for their selection given. The application of the methodology to each of the niche markets is presented along with the conclusions of the partners regarding the niche markets. (Author)

  1. The Geothermal Probabilistic Cost Model with an Application to a Geothermal Reservoir at Heber, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orren, L. H.; Ziman, G. M.; Jones, S. C.

    1981-01-01

    A financial accounting model that incorporates physical and institutional uncertainties was developed for geothermal projects. Among the uncertainties it can handle are well depth, flow rate, fluid temperature, and permit and construction times. The outputs of the model are cumulative probability distributions of financial measures such as capital cost, levelized cost, and profit. These outputs are well suited for use in an investment decision incorporating risk. The model has the powerful feature that conditional probability distribution can be used to account for correlations among any of the input variables. The model has been applied to a geothermal reservoir at Heber, California, for a 45-MW binary electric plant. Under the assumptions made, the reservoir appears to be economically viable.

  2. Including irrigation in niche modelling of the invasive wasp Vespula germanica (Fabricius) improves model fit to predict potential for further spread.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Villiers, Marelize; Kriticos, Darren J; Veldtman, Ruan

    2017-01-01

    The European wasp, Vespula germanica (Fabricius) (Hymenoptera: Vespidae), is of Palaearctic origin, being native to Europe, northern Africa and Asia, and introduced into North America, Chile, Argentina, Iceland, Ascension Island, South Africa, Australia and New Zealand. Due to its polyphagous nature and scavenging behaviour, V. germanica threatens agriculture and silviculture, and negatively affects biodiversity, while its aggressive nature and venomous sting pose a health risk to humans. In areas with warmer winters and longer summers, queens and workers can survive the winter months, leading to the build-up of large nests during the following season; thereby increasing the risk posed by this species. To prevent or prepare for such unwanted impacts it is important to know where the wasp may be able to establish, either through natural spread or through introduction as a result of human transport. Distribution data from Argentina and Australia, and seasonal phenology data from Argentina were used to determine the potential distribution of V. germanica using CLIMEX modelling. In contrast to previous models, the influence of irrigation on its distribution was also investigated. Under a natural rainfall scenario, the model showed similarities to previous models. When irrigation is applied, dry stress is alleviated, leading to larger areas modelled climatically suitable compared with previous models, which provided a better fit with the actual distribution of the species. The main areas at risk of invasion by V. germanica include western USA, Mexico, small areas in Central America and in the north-western region of South America, eastern Brazil, western Russia, north-western China, Japan, the Mediterranean coastal regions of North Africa, and parts of southern and eastern Africa.

  3. Including irrigation in niche modelling of the invasive wasp Vespula germanica (Fabricius improves model fit to predict potential for further spread.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marelize de Villiers

    Full Text Available The European wasp, Vespula germanica (Fabricius (Hymenoptera: Vespidae, is of Palaearctic origin, being native to Europe, northern Africa and Asia, and introduced into North America, Chile, Argentina, Iceland, Ascension Island, South Africa, Australia and New Zealand. Due to its polyphagous nature and scavenging behaviour, V. germanica threatens agriculture and silviculture, and negatively affects biodiversity, while its aggressive nature and venomous sting pose a health risk to humans. In areas with warmer winters and longer summers, queens and workers can survive the winter months, leading to the build-up of large nests during the following season; thereby increasing the risk posed by this species. To prevent or prepare for such unwanted impacts it is important to know where the wasp may be able to establish, either through natural spread or through introduction as a result of human transport. Distribution data from Argentina and Australia, and seasonal phenology data from Argentina were used to determine the potential distribution of V. germanica using CLIMEX modelling. In contrast to previous models, the influence of irrigation on its distribution was also investigated. Under a natural rainfall scenario, the model showed similarities to previous models. When irrigation is applied, dry stress is alleviated, leading to larger areas modelled climatically suitable compared with previous models, which provided a better fit with the actual distribution of the species. The main areas at risk of invasion by V. germanica include western USA, Mexico, small areas in Central America and in the north-western region of South America, eastern Brazil, western Russia, north-western China, Japan, the Mediterranean coastal regions of North Africa, and parts of southern and eastern Africa.

  4. Integrating an agent-based model into a large-scale hydrological model for evaluating drought management in California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheffield, J.; He, X.; Wada, Y.; Burek, P.; Kahil, M.; Wood, E. F.; Oppenheimer, M.

    2017-12-01

    California has endured record-breaking drought since winter 2011 and will likely experience more severe and persistent drought in the coming decades under changing climate. At the same time, human water management practices can also affect drought frequency and intensity, which underscores the importance of human behaviour in effective drought adaptation and mitigation. Currently, although a few large-scale hydrological and water resources models (e.g., PCR-GLOBWB) consider human water use and management practices (e.g., irrigation, reservoir operation, groundwater pumping), none of them includes the dynamic feedback between local human behaviors/decisions and the natural hydrological system. It is, therefore, vital to integrate social and behavioral dimensions into current hydrological modeling frameworks. This study applies the agent-based modeling (ABM) approach and couples it with a large-scale hydrological model (i.e., Community Water Model, CWatM) in order to have a balanced representation of social, environmental and economic factors and a more realistic representation of the bi-directional interactions and feedbacks in coupled human and natural systems. In this study, we focus on drought management in California and considers two types of agents, which are (groups of) farmers and state management authorities, and assumed that their corresponding objectives are to maximize the net crop profit and to maintain sufficient water supply, respectively. Farmers' behaviors are linked with local agricultural practices such as cropping patterns and deficit irrigation. More precisely, farmers' decisions are incorporated into CWatM across different time scales in terms of daily irrigation amount, seasonal/annual decisions on crop types and irrigated area as well as the long-term investment of irrigation infrastructure. This simulation-based optimization framework is further applied by performing different sets of scenarios to investigate and evaluate the effectiveness

  5. Impact of Asian Aerosols on Precipitation Over California: An Observational and Model Based Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naeger, Aaron R.; Molthan, Andrew L.; Zavodsky, Bradley T.; Creamean, Jessie M.

    2015-01-01

    Dust and pollution emissions from Asia are often transported across the Pacific Ocean to over the western United States. Therefore, it is essential to fully understand the impact of these aerosols on clouds and precipitation forming over the eastern Pacific and western United States, especially during atmospheric river events that account for up to half of California's annual precipitation and can lead to widespread flooding. In order for numerical modeling simulations to accurately represent the present and future regional climate of the western United States, we must account for the aerosol-cloud-precipitation interactions associated with Asian dust and pollution aerosols. Therefore, we have constructed a detailed study utilizing multi-sensor satellite observations, NOAA-led field campaign measurements, and targeted numerical modeling studies where Asian aerosols interacted with cloud and precipitation processes over the western United States. In particular, we utilize aerosol optical depth retrievals from the NASA Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), NOAA Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES-11), and Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) Multi-functional Transport Satellite (MTSAT) to effectively detect and monitor the trans-Pacific transport of Asian dust and pollution. The aerosol optical depth (AOD) retrievals are used in assimilating the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) in order to provide the model with an accurate representation of the aerosol spatial distribution across the Pacific. We conduct WRF-Chem model simulations of several cold-season atmospheric river events that interacted with Asian aerosols and brought significant precipitation over California during February-March 2011 when the NOAA CalWater field campaign was ongoing. The CalWater field campaign consisted of aircraft and surface measurements of aerosol and precipitation processes that help extensively validate our WRF

  6. Regional three-dimensional seismic velocity model of the crust and uppermost mantle of northern California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thurber, C.; Zhang, H.; Brocher, T.; Langenheim, V.

    2009-01-01

    We present a three-dimensional (3D) tomographic model of the P wave velocity (Vp) structure of northern California. We employed a regional-scale double-difference tomography algorithm that incorporates a finite-difference travel time calculator and spatial smoothing constraints. Arrival times from earthquakes and travel times from controlled-source explosions, recorded at network and/or temporary stations, were inverted for Vp on a 3D grid with horizontal node spacing of 10 to 20 km and vertical node spacing of 3 to 8 km. Our model provides an unprecedented, comprehensive view of the regional-scale structure of northern California, putting many previously identified features into a broader regional context and improving the resolution of a number of them and revealing a number of new features, especially in the middle and lower crust, that have never before been reported. Examples of the former include the complex subducting Gorda slab, a steep, deeply penetrating fault beneath the Sacramento River Delta, crustal low-velocity zones beneath Geysers-Clear Lake and Long Valley, and the high-velocity ophiolite body underlying the Great Valley. Examples of the latter include mid-crustal low-velocity zones beneath Mount Shasta and north of Lake Tahoe. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

  7. Analyzing Source Apportioned Methane in Northern California During DISCOVER-AQ-CA Using Airborne Measurements and Model Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Matthew S.

    2014-01-01

    This study analyzes source apportioned methane (CH4) emissions and atmospheric concentrations in northern California during the Discover-AQ-CA field campaign using airborne measurement data and model simulations. Source apportioned CH4 emissions from the Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR) version 4.2 were applied in the 3-D chemical transport model GEOS-Chem and analyzed using airborne measurements taken as part of the Alpha Jet Atmospheric eXperiment over the San Francisco Bay Area (SFBA) and northern San Joaquin Valley (SJV). During the time period of the Discover-AQ-CA field campaign EDGAR inventory CH4 emissions were 5.30 Gg/day (Gg 1.0 109 grams) (equating to 1.9 103 Gg/yr) for all of California. According to EDGAR, the SFBA and northern SJV region contributes 30 of total emissions from California. Source apportionment analysis during this study shows that CH4 concentrations over this area of northern California are largely influenced by global emissions from wetlands and local/global emissions from gas and oil production and distribution, waste treatment processes, and livestock management. Model simulations, using EDGAR emissions, suggest that the model under-estimates CH4 concentrations in northern California (average normalized mean bias (NMB) -5 and linear regression slope 0.25). The largest negative biases in the model were calculated on days when hot spots of local emission sources were measured and atmospheric CH4 concentrations reached values 3.0 parts per million (model NMB -10). Sensitivity emission studies conducted during this research suggest that local emissions of CH4 from livestock management processes are likely the primary source of the negative model bias. These results indicate that a variety, and larger quantity, of measurement data needs to be obtained and additional research is necessary to better quantify source apportioned CH4 emissions in California and further the understanding of the physical processes

  8. Division within the North American boreal forest: Ecological niche divergence between the Bicknell's Thrush (Catharus bicknelli) and Gray-cheeked Thrush (C. minimus).

    Science.gov (United States)

    FitzGerald, Alyssa M

    2017-07-01

    Sister species that diverged in allopatry in similar environments are expected to exhibit niche conservatism. Using ecological niche modeling and a multivariate analysis of climate and habitat data, I test the hypothesis that the Bicknell's Thrush ( Catharus bicknelli ) and Gray-cheeked Thrush ( C. mimimus ), sister species that breed in the North American boreal forest, show niche conservatism. Three tree species that are important components of breeding territories of both thrush species were combined with climatic variables to create niche models consisting of abiotic and biotic components. Abiotic-only, abiotic+biotic, and biotic-only models were evaluated using the area under the curve (AUC) criterion. Abiotic+biotic models had higher AUC scores and did not over-project thrush distributions compared to abiotic-only or biotic-only models. From the abiotic+biotic models, I tested for niche conservatism or divergence by accounting for the differences in the availability of niche components by calculating (1) niche overlap from ecological niche models and (2) mean niche differences of environmental values at occurrence points. Niche background similarity tests revealed significant niche divergence in 10 of 12 comparisons, and multivariate tests revealed niche divergence along 2 of 3 niche axes. The Bicknell's Thrush breeds in warmer and wetter regions with a high abundance of balsam fir ( Abies balsamea ), whereas Gray-cheeked Thrush often co-occurs with black spruce ( Picea mariana ). Niche divergence, rather than conservatism, was the predominant pattern for these species, suggesting that ecological divergence has played a role in the speciation of the Bicknell's Thrush and Gray-cheeked Thrush. Furthermore, because niche models were improved by the incorporation of biotic variables, this study validates the inclusion of relevant biotic factors in ecological niche modeling to increase model accuracy.

  9. Integrated Modeling of Drought-Impacted Areas using Remote Sensing and Microenvironmental Data in California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rao, M.; Silber-coats, Z.; Lawrence, F.

    2015-12-01

    California's ongoing drought condition shriveled not just the agricultural sector, but also the natural resources sector including forestry, wildlife, and fisheries. As future predictions of drought and fire severity become more real in California, there is an increased awareness to pursue innovative and cost-effective solutions that are based on silvicultural treatments and controlled burns to improve forest health and reduce the risk of high-severity wildfires. The main goal of this study is to develop a GIS map of the drought-impacted region of northern and central California using remote sensing data for the summer period of 2014. Specifically, Landsat/NAIP imagery will be analyzed using a combination of object-oriented classification and spectral indices such as the Modified Perpendicular Drought Index (MPDI). This spectral index basically scales the line perpendicular to the soil line defined in the Red-NIR feature space in conjunction with added information about vegetative fraction derived using NDVI. The resulting output will be correlated with USGS-produced estimates of climatic water deficit (CWD) data to characterize the severity of the drought. The CWD is simulated based on hydrological tool, Basin Characterization Model (BCM) that ingests historical climate data in conjunction with soils, topography, and geological data to predict other monthly hydrological outputs including runoff, recharge, and snowpack. In addition to field data, data collected by state agencies including USFS, calforests.org will be used in the classification and accuracy assessment procedures. Visual assessment using high-resolution imagery such as NAIP will be used to further refine the spatial maps. The drought severity maps produced will greatly facilitate site-specific planning efforts aimed at implementing resource management decisions.

  10. Niche tracking and rapid establishment of distributional equilibrium in the house sparrow show potential responsiveness of species to climate change.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    William B Monahan

    changes to the realized environmental space. Such insights may be used to conceptualize mechanistic climatic niche models in birds and other taxa.

  11. Developing ecological site and state-and-transition models for grazed riparian pastures at Tejon Ranch, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Felix P. Ratcliff; James Bartolome; Michele Hammond; Sheri Spiegal; Michael White

    2015-01-01

    Ecological site descriptions and associated state-and-transition models are useful tools for understanding the variable effects of management and environment on range resources. Models for woody riparian sites have yet to be fully developed. At Tejon Ranch, in the southern San Joaquin Valley of California, we are using ecological site theory to investigate the role of...

  12. Analyzing source apportioned methane in northern California during Discover-AQ-CA using airborne measurements and model simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Matthew S.; Yates, Emma L.; Iraci, Laura T.; Loewenstein, Max; Tadić, Jovan M.; Wecht, Kevin J.; Jeong, Seongeun; Fischer, Marc L.

    2014-12-01

    This study analyzes source apportioned methane (CH4) emissions and atmospheric mixing ratios in northern California during the Discover-AQ-CA field campaign using airborne measurement data and model simulations. Source apportioned CH4 emissions from the Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR) version 4.2 were applied in the 3-D chemical transport model GEOS-Chem and analyzed using airborne measurements taken as part of the Alpha Jet Atmospheric eXperiment over the San Francisco Bay Area (SFBA) and northern San Joaquin Valley (SJV). During the time period of the Discover-AQ-CA field campaign EDGAR inventory CH4 emissions were ∼5.30 Gg day-1 (Gg = 1.0 × 109 g) (equating to ∼1.90 × 103 Gg yr-1) for all of California. According to EDGAR, the SFBA and northern SJV region contributes ∼30% of total CH4 emissions from California. Source apportionment analysis during this study shows that CH4 mixing ratios over this area of northern California are largely influenced by global emissions from wetlands and local/global emissions from gas and oil production and distribution, waste treatment processes, and livestock management. Model simulations, using EDGAR emissions, suggest that the model under-estimates CH4 mixing ratios in northern California (average normalized mean bias (NMB) = -5.2% and linear regression slope = 0.20). The largest negative biases in the model were calculated on days when large amounts of CH4 were measured over local emission sources and atmospheric CH4 mixing ratios reached values >2.5 parts per million. Sensitivity emission studies conducted during this research suggest that local emissions of CH4 from livestock management processes are likely the primary source of the negative model bias. These results indicate that a variety, and larger quantity, of measurement data needs to be obtained and additional research is necessary to better quantify source apportioned CH4 emissions in California.

  13. Results of the Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models (RELM) test of earthquake forecasts in California.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Ya-Ting; Turcotte, Donald L; Holliday, James R; Sachs, Michael K; Rundle, John B; Chen, Chien-Chih; Tiampo, Kristy F

    2011-10-04

    The Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models (RELM) test of earthquake forecasts in California was the first competitive evaluation of forecasts of future earthquake occurrence. Participants submitted expected probabilities of occurrence of M ≥ 4.95 earthquakes in 0.1° × 0.1° cells for the period 1 January 1, 2006, to December 31, 2010. Probabilities were submitted for 7,682 cells in California and adjacent regions. During this period, 31 M ≥ 4.95 earthquakes occurred in the test region. These earthquakes occurred in 22 test cells. This seismic activity was dominated by earthquakes associated with the M = 7.2, April 4, 2010, El Mayor-Cucapah earthquake in northern Mexico. This earthquake occurred in the test region, and 16 of the other 30 earthquakes in the test region could be associated with it. Nine complete forecasts were submitted by six participants. In this paper, we present the forecasts in a way that allows the reader to evaluate which forecast is the most "successful" in terms of the locations of future earthquakes. We conclude that the RELM test was a success and suggest ways in which the results can be used to improve future forecasts.

  14. Dissipation of the Herbicide Benzobicyclon Hydrolysate in a Model California Rice Field Soil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Katryn L; Gladfelder, Joshua J; Quigley, Lindsay L; Ball, David B; Tjeerdema, Ronald S

    2017-10-25

    The herbicide benzobicyclon (BZB; 3-(2-chloro-4-(methylsulfonyl)benzoyl)-2-phenylthiobicyclo[3.2.1]oct-2-en-4-one) has recently been approved for use on California rice fields by the United States Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA). Hydrolysis of BZB rapidly forms the active compound, benzobicyclon hydrolysate (BH), whose fate is currently not well understood. A model California rice soil was used to determine BH soil dissipation. The pK a and aqueous solubility were also determined, as experimental values are not currently available. Sorption data indicate BH does not bind tightly, or irreversibly, with this soil. Flooding resulted in decreased BH loss, indicating anaerobic microbes are less likely to transform BH compared to aerobic microorganisms. Temperature increased dissipation, while autoclaving decreased BH loss. Overall, dissipation was slow regardless of treatment. Further investigation is needed to elucidate the exact routes of loss in soil, though BH is expected to dissipate slowly in flooded rice field soil.

  15. Modeling nitrate at domestic and public-supply well depths in the Central Valley, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nolan, Bernard T.; Gronberg, JoAnn M.; Faunt, Claudia C.; Eberts, Sandra M.; Belitz, Ken

    2014-01-01

    Aquifer vulnerability models were developed to map groundwater nitrate concentration at domestic and public-supply well depths in the Central Valley, California. We compared three modeling methods for ability to predict nitrate concentration >4 mg/L: logistic regression (LR), random forest classification (RFC), and random forest regression (RFR). All three models indicated processes of nitrogen fertilizer input at the land surface, transmission through coarse-textured, well-drained soils, and transport in the aquifer to the well screen. The total percent correct predictions were similar among the three models (69–82%), but RFR had greater sensitivity (84% for shallow wells and 51% for deep wells). The results suggest that RFR can better identify areas with high nitrate concentration but that LR and RFC may better describe bulk conditions in the aquifer. A unique aspect of the modeling approach was inclusion of outputs from previous, physically based hydrologic and textural models as predictor variables, which were important to the models. Vertical water fluxes in the aquifer and percent coarse material above the well screen were ranked moderately high-to-high in the RFR models, and the average vertical water flux during the irrigation season was highly significant (p < 0.0001) in logistic regression.

  16. Modeling nitrate at domestic and public-supply well depths in the Central Valley, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nolan, Bernard T.; Gronberg, JoAnn M.; Faunt, Claudia C.; Eberts, Sandra M.; Belitz, Ken

    2014-01-01

    Aquifer vulnerability models were developed to map groundwater nitrate concentration at domestic and public-supply well depths in the Central Valley, California. We compared three modeling methods for ability to predict nitrate concentration >4 mg/L: logistic regression (LR), random forest classification (RFC), and random forest regression (RFR). All three models indicated processes of nitrogen fertilizer input at the land surface, transmission through coarse-textured, well-drained soils, and transport in the aquifer to the well screen. The total percent correct predictions were similar among the three models (69–82%), but RFR had greater sensitivity (84% for shallow wells and 51% for deep wells). The results suggest that RFR can better identify areas with high nitrate concentration but that LR and RFC may better describe bulk conditions in the aquifer. A unique aspect of the modeling approach was inclusion of outputs from previous, physically based hydrologic and textural models as predictor variables, which were important to the models. Vertical water fluxes in the aquifer and percent coarse material above the well screen were ranked moderately high-to-high in the RFR models, and the average vertical water flux during the irrigation season was highly significant (p in logistic regression.

  17. Supply Chain Development: Insights from Strategic Niche Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caniels, Marjolein C. J.; Romijn, Henny A.

    2008-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to contribute to the study of supply chain design from the perspective of complex dynamic systems. Unlike extant studies that use formal simulation modelling and associated methodologies rooted in the physical sciences, it adopts a framework rooted in the social sciences, strategic niche management, which…

  18. How fault evolution changes strain partitioning and fault slip rates in Southern California: Results from geodynamic modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ye, Jiyang; Liu, Mian

    2017-08-01

    In Southern California, the Pacific-North America relative plate motion is accommodated by the complex southern San Andreas Fault system that includes many young faults (faults and their impact on strain partitioning and fault slip rates are important for understanding the evolution of this plate boundary zone and assessing earthquake hazard in Southern California. Using a three-dimensional viscoelastoplastic finite element model, we have investigated how this plate boundary fault system has evolved to accommodate the relative plate motion in Southern California. Our results show that when the plate boundary faults are not optimally configured to accommodate the relative plate motion, strain is localized in places where new faults would initiate to improve the mechanical efficiency of the fault system. In particular, the Eastern California Shear Zone, the San Jacinto Fault, the Elsinore Fault, and the offshore dextral faults all developed in places of highly localized strain. These younger faults compensate for the reduced fault slip on the San Andreas Fault proper because of the Big Bend, a major restraining bend. The evolution of the fault system changes the apportionment of fault slip rates over time, which may explain some of the slip rate discrepancy between geological and geodetic measurements in Southern California. For the present fault configuration, our model predicts localized strain in western Transverse Ranges and along the dextral faults across the Mojave Desert, where numerous damaging earthquakes occurred in recent years.

  19. Habitat-Based Density Models for Three Cetacean Species off Southern California Illustrate Pronounced Seasonal Differences

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elizabeth A. Becker

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Managing marine species effectively requires spatially and temporally explicit knowledge of their density and distribution. Habitat-based density models, a type of species distribution model (SDM that uses habitat covariates to estimate species density and distribution patterns, are increasingly used for marine management and conservation because they provide a tool for assessing potential impacts (e.g., from fishery bycatch, ship strikes, anthropogenic sound over a variety of spatial and temporal scales. The abundance and distribution of many pelagic species exhibit substantial seasonal variability, highlighting the importance of predicting density specific to the season of interest. This is particularly true in dynamic regions like the California Current, where significant seasonal shifts in cetacean distribution have been documented at coarse scales. Finer scale (10 km habitat-based density models were previously developed for many cetacean species occurring in this region, but most models were limited to summer/fall. The objectives of our study were two-fold: (1 develop spatially-explicit density estimates for winter/spring to support management applications, and (2 compare model-predicted density and distribution patterns to previously developed summer/fall model results in the context of species ecology. We used a well-established Generalized Additive Modeling framework to develop cetacean SDMs based on 20 California Cooperative Oceanic Fisheries Investigations (CalCOFI shipboard surveys conducted during winter and spring between 2005 and 2015. Models were fit for short-beaked common dolphin (Delphinus delphis delphis, Dall's porpoise (Phocoenoides dalli, and humpback whale (Megaptera novaeangliae. Model performance was evaluated based on a variety of established metrics, including the percentage of explained deviance, ratios of observed to predicted density, and visual inspection of predicted and observed distributions. Final models were

  20. Application of Bayesian methods to habitat selection modeling of the northern spotted owl in California: new statistical methods for wildlife research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howard B. Stauffer; Cynthia J. Zabel; Jeffrey R. Dunk

    2005-01-01

    We compared a set of competing logistic regression habitat selection models for Northern Spotted Owls (Strix occidentalis caurina) in California. The habitat selection models were estimated, compared, evaluated, and tested using multiple sample datasets collected on federal forestlands in northern California. We used Bayesian methods in interpreting...

  1. Modeling residential water and related energy, carbon footprint and costs in California

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Escriva-Bou, Alvar; Lund, Jay R.; Pulido-Velazquez, Manuel

    2015-01-01

    Graphical abstract: - Highlights: • We model residential water use and related energy and GHG emissions in California. • Heterogeneity in use, spatial variability and water and energy rates are accounted. • Outdoor is more than 50% of water use but 80% of energy is used by faucet + shower. • Variability in water and energy prices affects willingness to adopt conservation. • Targeting high-use hoses and joint conservation policies are effective strategies. - Abstract: Starting from single-family household water end-use data, this study develops an end-use model for water-use and related energy and carbon footprint using probability distributions for parameters affecting water consumption in 10 local water utilities in California. Monte Carlo simulations are used to develop a large representative sample of households to describe variability in use, with water bills for each house for different utility rate structures. The water-related energy consumption for each household realization was obtained using an energy model based on the different water end-uses, assuming probability distributions for hot-water-use for each appliance and water heater characteristics. Spatial variability is incorporated to account for average air and household water inlet temperatures and price structures for each utility. Water-related energy costs are calculated using averaged energy price for each location. CO 2 emissions were derived from energy use using emission factors. Overall simulation runs assess the impact of several common conservation strategies on household water and energy use. Results show that single-family water-related CO 2 emissions are 2% of overall per capita emissions, and that managing water and energy jointly can significantly reduce state greenhouse gas emissions

  2. Niche evolution and diversification in a Neotropical radiation of birds (Aves: Furnariidae).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seeholzer, Glenn F; Claramunt, Santiago; Brumfield, Robb T

    2017-03-01

    Rapid diversification may be caused by ecological adaptive radiation via niche divergence. In this model, speciation is coupled with niche divergence and lineage diversification is predicted to be correlated with rates of niche evolution. Studies of the role of niche evolution in diversification have generally focused on ecomorphological diversification but climatic-niche evolution may also be important. We tested these alternatives using a phylogeny of 298 species of ovenbirds (Aves: Furnariidae). We found that within Furnariidae, variation in species richness and diversification rates of subclades were best predicted by rate of climatic-niche evolution than ecomorphological evolution. Although both are clearly important, univariate regression and multivariate model averaging more consistently supported the climatic-niche as the best predictor of lineage diversification. Our study adds to the growing body of evidence, suggesting that climatic-niche divergence may be an important driver of rapid diversification in addition to ecomorphological evolution. However, this pattern may depend on the phylogenetic scale at which rate heterogeneity is examined. © 2017 The Author(s). Evolution © 2017 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

  3. Microhabitat and Climatic Niche Change Explain Patterns of Diversification among Frog Families.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moen, Daniel S; Wiens, John J

    2017-07-01

    A major goal of ecology and evolutionary biology is to explain patterns of species richness among clades. Differences in rates of net diversification (speciation minus extinction over time) may often explain these patterns, but the factors that drive variation in diversification rates remain uncertain. Three important candidates are climatic niche position (e.g., whether clades are primarily temperate or tropical), rates of climatic niche change among species within clades, and microhabitat (e.g., aquatic, terrestrial, arboreal). The first two factors have been tested separately in several studies, but the relative importance of all three is largely unknown. Here we explore the correlates of diversification among families of frogs, which collectively represent ∼88% of amphibian species. We assemble and analyze data on phylogeny, climate, and microhabitat for thousands of species. We find that the best-fitting phylogenetic multiple regression model includes all three types of variables: microhabitat, rates of climatic niche change, and climatic niche position. This model explains 67% of the variation in diversification rates among frog families, with arboreal microhabitat explaining ∼31%, niche rates ∼25%, and climatic niche position ∼11%. Surprisingly, we show that microhabitat can have a much stronger influence on diversification than climatic niche position or rates of climatic niche change.

  4. A Predictive Model for Readmissions Among Medicare Patients in a California Hospital.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duncan, Ian; Huynh, Nhan

    2017-11-17

    Predictive models for hospital readmission rates are in high demand because of the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) Hospital Readmission Reduction Program (HRRP). The LACE index is one of the most popular predictive tools among hospitals in the United States. The LACE index is a simple tool with 4 parameters: Length of stay, Acuity of admission, Comorbidity, and Emergency visits in the previous 6 months. The authors applied logistic regression to develop a predictive model for a medium-sized not-for-profit community hospital in California using patient-level data with more specific patient information (including 13 explanatory variables). Specifically, the logistic regression is applied to 2 populations: a general population including all patients and the specific group of patients targeted by the CMS penalty (characterized as ages 65 or older with select conditions). The 2 resulting logistic regression models have a higher sensitivity rate compared to the sensitivity of the LACE index. The C statistic values of the model applied to both populations demonstrate moderate levels of predictive power. The authors also build an economic model to demonstrate the potential financial impact of the use of the model for targeting high-risk patients in a sample hospital and demonstrate that, on balance, whether the hospital gains or loses from reducing readmissions depends on its margin and the extent of its readmission penalties.

  5. Stitch the niche - a practical philosophy and visual schematic for the niche concept

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    McInerny, Greg J.; Etienne, Rampal S.

    2012-01-01

    By over-focusing on precise definitions, ecology has produced a confused idea of the niche concept. This, our second paper, develops a practical philosophy for the niche that approaches the concept at the correct level of abstraction. We deconstruct the niche into effect and response components and

  6. Periarteriolar Glioblastoma Stem Cell Niches Express Bone Marrow Hematopoietic Stem Cell Niche Proteins

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hira, Vashendriya V. V.; Wormer, Jill R.; Kakar, Hala; Breznik, Barbara; van der Swaan, Britt; Hulsbos, Renske; Tigchelaar, Wikky; Tonar, Zbynek; Khurshed, Mohammed; Molenaar, Remco J.; van Noorden, Cornelis J. F.

    2018-01-01

    In glioblastoma, a fraction of malignant cells consists of therapy-resistant glioblastoma stem cells (GSCs) residing in protective niches that recapitulate hematopoietic stem cell (HSC) niches in bone marrow. We have previously shown that HSC niche proteins stromal cell-derived factor-1α (SDF-1α),

  7. High-resolution regional climate model evaluation using variable-resolution CESM over California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, X.; Rhoades, A.; Ullrich, P. A.; Zarzycki, C. M.

    2015-12-01

    Understanding the effect of climate change at regional scales remains a topic of intensive research. Though computational constraints remain a problem, high horizontal resolution is needed to represent topographic forcing, which is a significant driver of local climate variability. Although regional climate models (RCMs) have traditionally been used at these scales, variable-resolution global climate models (VRGCMs) have recently arisen as an alternative for studying regional weather and climate allowing two-way interaction between these domains without the need for nudging. In this study, the recently developed variable-resolution option within the Community Earth System Model (CESM) is assessed for long-term regional climate modeling over California. Our variable-resolution simulations will focus on relatively high resolutions for climate assessment, namely 28km and 14km regional resolution, which are much more typical for dynamically downscaled studies. For comparison with the more widely used RCM method, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model will be used for simulations at 27km and 9km. All simulations use the AMIP (Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project) protocols. The time period is from 1979-01-01 to 2005-12-31 (UTC), and year 1979 was discarded as spin up time. The mean climatology across California's diverse climate zones, including temperature and precipitation, is analyzed and contrasted with the Weather Research and Forcasting (WRF) model (as a traditional RCM), regional reanalysis, gridded observational datasets and uniform high-resolution CESM at 0.25 degree with the finite volume (FV) dynamical core. The results show that variable-resolution CESM is competitive in representing regional climatology on both annual and seasonal time scales. This assessment adds value to the use of VRGCMs for projecting climate change over the coming century and improve our understanding of both past and future regional climate related to fine

  8. Phylogenetic climatic niche conservatism and evolution of climatic suitability in Neotropical Angraecinae (Vandeae, Orchidaceae) and their closest African relatives

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Kolanowska, Marta; Grochocka, E.; Konowalik, K.

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 5, may (2017), č. článku e3328. ISSN 2167-8359 R&D Projects: GA ČR GB14-36098G Institutional support: RVO:86652079 Keywords : campylocentrum orchidaceae * molecular phylogenetics * environmental niches * costa-rica * diversity * models * speciation * ecology * pollination * divergence * Angraecinae * Ecological niche modeling * Orchidaceae * Phylogenetic niche conservatism * Angraecum * Campylocentrum * Dendrophylax Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour OBOR OECD: Biodiversity conservation Impact factor: 2.177, year: 2016

  9. Predicting the distribution of a parasite using the ecological niche model, GARP Predicción de la distribución de un parásito usando el modelo de nicho ecológico, GARP

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Terry R. Haverkost

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available The ecological niche of a parasite exists only at the nexus of certain abiotic and biotic conditions suitable for both the definitive and intermediate hosts. However, the life cycles of most parasites are not known, or are poorly known, and using known ranges of hosts to find endemic parasitic infections has been difficult. However, with ecological niche modeling, we can create potential range maps using known localities of infection. Testing the validity of such maps requires knowledge of the localities of other parasites with common history. Here, we find that the ecological niche of a tapeworm parasite of voles, Paranoplocephala macrocephala (Cestoda: Anoplocephalidae, allows prediction of the presence (in ecological and geographic space of 19 related parasite species from 3 genera in 23 different hosts throughout the Nearctic. These results give credence to the idea that this group shares similar life cycle requirements despite phylogenetic distance. This work further validates ecological niche modeling as a means by which to predict occurrence of parasites when not all facets of the life cycle are confirmed. Such inductive methods create the opportunity for deducing potential reservoir or intermediate hosts, and complementing studies of parasite biodiversity and community ecology.El nicho ecológico de un parásito existe sólo cuando coinciden condiciones abióticas y bióticas necesarias para los hospederos definitivos e intermediarios. No obstante, los ciclos de vida de la mayoría de los parásitos son poco conocidos; el usar áreas de distribución de hospederos para encontrar áreas endémicas de parasitismo ha resultado difícil. Con el modelado de nicho, se pueden producir mapas del área de distribución potencial con base en sitios conocidos de presencia. Para probar la validez de estos mapas, se requiere el conocimiento de sitios de presencia de otros parásitos relacionados. En este estudio, encontramos que el nicho ecol

  10. The accuracy of matrix population model projections for coniferous trees in the Sierra Nevada, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Mantgem, P.J.; Stephenson, N.L.

    2005-01-01

    1 We assess the use of simple, size-based matrix population models for projecting population trends for six coniferous tree species in the Sierra Nevada, California. We used demographic data from 16 673 trees in 15 permanent plots to create 17 separate time-invariant, density-independent population projection models, and determined differences between trends projected from initial surveys with a 5-year interval and observed data during two subsequent 5-year time steps. 2 We detected departures from the assumptions of the matrix modelling approach in terms of strong growth autocorrelations. We also found evidence of observation errors for measurements of tree growth and, to a more limited degree, recruitment. Loglinear analysis provided evidence of significant temporal variation in demographic rates for only two of the 17 populations. 3 Total population sizes were strongly predicted by model projections, although population dynamics were dominated by carryover from the previous 5-year time step (i.e. there were few cases of recruitment or death). Fractional changes to overall population sizes were less well predicted. Compared with a null model and a simple demographic model lacking size structure, matrix model projections were better able to predict total population sizes, although the differences were not statistically significant. Matrix model projections were also able to predict short-term rates of survival, growth and recruitment. Mortality frequencies were not well predicted. 4 Our results suggest that simple size-structured models can accurately project future short-term changes for some tree populations. However, not all populations were well predicted and these simple models would probably become more inaccurate over longer projection intervals. The predictive ability of these models would also be limited by disturbance or other events that destabilize demographic rates. ?? 2005 British Ecological Society.

  11. California Bioregions

    Data.gov (United States)

    California Natural Resource Agency — California regions developed by the Inter-agency Natural Areas Coordinating Committee (INACC) were digitized from a 1:1,200,000 California Department of Fish and...

  12. California Tiger Salamander Range - CWHR [ds588

    Data.gov (United States)

    California Natural Resource Agency — Vector datasets of CWHR range maps are one component of California Wildlife Habitat Relationships (CWHR), a comprehensive information system and predictive model for...

  13. Developing and testing a landscape habitat suitability model for fisher (Martes pennanti) in forests of interior northern California

    Science.gov (United States)

    W.J. Zielinski; J. R. Dunk; J. S. Yaeger; D. W. LaPlante

    2010-01-01

    The fisher is warranted for protection under the Endangered Species Act in the western United States and, as such, it is especially important that conservation and management actions are based on sound scientific information. We developed a landscape-scale suitability model for interior northern California to predict the probability of detecting fishers and to identify...

  14. Modeling climate and fuel reduction impacts on mixed-conifer forest carbon stocks in the Sierra Nevada, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matthew D. Hurteau; Timothy A. Robards; Donald Stevens; David Saah; Malcolm North; George W. Koch

    2014-01-01

    Quantifying the impacts of changing climatic conditions on forest growth is integral to estimating future forest carbon balance. We used a growth-and-yield model, modified for climate sensitivity, to quantify the effects of altered climate on mixed-conifer forest growth in the Lake Tahoe Basin, California. Estimates of forest growth and live tree carbon stocks were...

  15. Occupy the Financial Niche: Saturation and Crisis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Purica, Ionut

    The model presented is one theoretical approach within a broader research program that could verify the nonlinear conjectures made, such that to quantify and predict potential discontinuous behaviour. In this case, the crisis behaviour associated with financial funds reallocation among various credit instruments, described as memes with the sense of Dawkins, is shown to be of discontinuous nature stemming from a logistic penetration in the behaviour niche. Actually the logistic penetration is typical in creating cyclic behaviour of economic structures as shown by Marchetti and others from IIASA. A Fokker-Planck equation description results in a stationary solution having a bifurcation like solution with evolution trajectories on a `cusp' type catastrophe that may describe discontinuous decision behaviour.

  16. Trophic niche shifts driven by phytoplankton in sandy beach ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bergamino, Leandro; Martínez, Ana; Han, Eunah; Lercari, Diego; Defeo, Omar

    2016-10-01

    Stable isotopes (δ13C and δ15N) together with chlorophyll a and densities of surf diatoms were used to analyze changes in trophic niches of species in two sandy beaches of Uruguay with contrasting morphodynamics (i.e. dissipative vs. reflective). Consumers and food sources were collected over four seasons, including sediment organic matter (SOM), suspended particulate organic matter (POM) and the surf zone diatom Asterionellopsis guyunusae. Circular statistics and a Bayesian isotope mixing model were used to quantify food web differences between beaches. Consumers changed their trophic niche between beaches in the same direction of the food web space towards higher reliance on surf diatoms in the dissipative beach. Mixing models indicated that A. guyunusae was the primary nutrition source for suspension feeders in the dissipative beach, explaining their change in dietary niche compared to the reflective beach where the proportional contribution of surf diatoms was low. The high C/N ratios in A. guyunusae indicated its high nutritional value and N content, and may help to explain the high assimilation by suspension feeders at the dissipative beach. Furthermore, density of A. guyunusae was higher in the dissipative than in the reflective beach, and cell density was positively correlated with chlorophyll a only in the dissipative beach. Therefore, surf diatoms are important drivers in the dynamics of sandy beach food webs, determining the trophic niche space and productivity. Our study provides valuable insights on shifting foraging behavior by beach fauna in response to changes in resource availability.

  17. Identification of hepatic niche harboring human acute lymphoblastic leukemic cells via the SDF-1/CXCR4 axis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Itaru Kato

    Full Text Available In acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL patients, the bone marrow niche is widely known to be an important element of treatment response and relapse. Furthermore, a characteristic liver pathology observed in ALL patients implies that the hepatic microenvironment provides an extramedullary niche for leukemic cells. However, it remains unclear whether the liver actually provides a specific niche. The mechanism underlying this pathology is also poorly understood. Here, to answer these questions, we reconstituted the histopathology of leukemic liver by using patients-derived primary ALL cells into NOD/SCID/Yc (null mice. The liver pathology in this model was similar to that observed in the patients. By using this model, we clearly demonstrated that bile duct epithelial cells form a hepatic niche that supports infiltration and proliferation of ALL cells in the liver. Furthermore, we showed that functions of the niche are maintained by the SDF-1/CXCR4 axis, proposing a novel therapeutic approach targeting the extramedullary niche by inhibition of the SDF-1/CXCR4 axis. In conclusion, we demonstrated that the liver dissemination of leukemia is not due to nonselective infiltration, but rather systematic invasion and proliferation of leukemic cells in hepatic niche. Although the contribution of SDF-1/CXCR4 axis is reported in some cancer cells or leukemic niches such as bone marrow, we demonstrated that this axis works even in the extramedullary niche of leukemic cells. Our findings form the basis for therapeutic approaches that target the extramedullary niche by inhibiting the SDF-1/CXCR4 axis.

  18. Uniform California earthquake rupture forecast, version 3 (UCERF3): the time-independent model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Field, Edward H.; Biasi, Glenn P.; Bird, Peter; Dawson, Timothy E.; Felzer, Karen R.; Jackson, David D.; Johnson, Kaj M.; Jordan, Thomas H.; Madden, Christopher; Michael, Andrew J.; Milner, Kevin R.; Page, Morgan T.; Parsons, Thomas; Powers, Peter M.; Shaw, Bruce E.; Thatcher, Wayne R.; Weldon, Ray J.; Zeng, Yuehua; ,

    2013-01-01

    In this report we present the time-independent component of the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 3 (UCERF3), which provides authoritative estimates of the magnitude, location, and time-averaged frequency of potentially damaging earthquakes in California. The primary achievements have been to relax fault segmentation assumptions and to include multifault ruptures, both limitations of the previous model (UCERF2). The rates of all earthquakes are solved for simultaneously, and from a broader range of data, using a system-level "grand inversion" that is both conceptually simple and extensible. The inverse problem is large and underdetermined, so a range of models is sampled using an efficient simulated annealing algorithm. The approach is more derivative than prescriptive (for example, magnitude-frequency distributions are no longer assumed), so new analysis tools were developed for exploring solutions. Epistemic uncertainties were also accounted for using 1,440 alternative logic tree branches, necessitating access to supercomputers. The most influential uncertainties include alternative deformation models (fault slip rates), a new smoothed seismicity algorithm, alternative values for the total rate of M≥5 events, and different scaling relationships, virtually all of which are new. As a notable first, three deformation models are based on kinematically consistent inversions of geodetic and geologic data, also providing slip-rate constraints on faults previously excluded because of lack of geologic data. The grand inversion constitutes a system-level framework for testing hypotheses and balancing the influence of different experts. For example, we demonstrate serious challenges with the Gutenberg-Richter hypothesis for individual faults. UCERF3 is still an approximation of the system, however, and the range of models is limited (for example, constrained to stay close to UCERF2). Nevertheless, UCERF3 removes the apparent UCERF2 overprediction of

  19. Target Article with Commentaries: Developmental Niche Construction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flynn, Emma G.; Laland, Kevin N.; Kendal, Rachel L.; Kendal, Jeremy R.

    2013-01-01

    Niche construction is the modification of components of the environment through an organism's activities. Humans modify their environments mainly through ontogenetic and cultural processes, and it is this reliance on learning, plasticity and culture that lends human niche construction a special potency. In this paper we aim to facilitate…

  20. Development of a Freight Demand Model with an Application to California

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert Lim

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper discusses the disaggregation of the Federal Highway Administration's Freight Analysis Framework (FAF database (version 3.0 on freight origin-destination data and the development of linear regression equations to describe the relationships between commodity-based freight trip productions/attractions to specific economic variables. Instead of generating a production/attraction equation for each commodity, commodities are grouped in certain ways to simplify model development and application. We consider three grouping methods and two model selection criteria (with and without intercepts, which are compared in terms of goodness of fit with two data sets (FAF versions 2.0 and 3.0. Furthermore, the freight generation models are validated using county-level economic data in California and applied to predict year 2015 commodity outputs. The results of this study can help city, county, metropolitan and state level planning agencies develop their own customized freight demand generation models without performing costly large-scale surveys.

  1. A variational approach to niche construction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Constant, Axel; Ramstead, Maxwell J D; Veissière, Samuel P L; Campbell, John O; Friston, Karl J

    2018-04-01

    In evolutionary biology, niche construction is sometimes described as a genuine evolutionary process whereby organisms, through their activities and regulatory mechanisms, modify their environment such as to steer their own evolutionary trajectory, and that of other species. There is ongoing debate, however, on the extent to which niche construction ought to be considered a bona fide evolutionary force, on a par with natural selection. Recent formulations of the variational free-energy principle as applied to the life sciences describe the properties of living systems, and their selection in evolution, in terms of variational inference. We argue that niche construction can be described using a variational approach. We propose new arguments to support the niche construction perspective, and to extend the variational approach to niche construction to current perspectives in various scientific fields. © 2018 The Authors.

  2. The niche party concept and its measurement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meyer, Thomas M; Miller, Bernhard

    2015-03-01

    The concept of the niche party has become increasingly popular in analyses of party competition. Yet, existing approaches vary in their definitions and their measurement approaches. We propose using a minimal definition that allows us to compare political parties in terms of their 'nicheness'. We argue that the conceptual core of the niche party concept is based on issue emphasis and that a niche party emphasizes policy areas neglected by its rivals. Based on this definition, we propose a continuous measure that allows for more fine-grained measurement of a party's 'nicheness' than the dominant, dichotomous approaches and thereby limits the risk of measurement error. Drawing on data collected by the Comparative Manifesto Project, we show that (1) our measure has high face validity and (2) exposes differences among parties that are not captured by alternative, static or dichotomous measures.

  3. Screening California Current fishery management scenarios using the Atlantis end-to-end ecosystem model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaplan, Isaac C.; Horne, Peter J.; Levin, Phillip S.

    2012-09-01

    End-to-end marine ecosystem models link climate and oceanography to the food web and human activities. These models can be used as forecasting tools, to strategically evaluate management options and to support ecosystem-based management. Here we report the results of such forecasts in the California Current, using an Atlantis end-to-end model. We worked collaboratively with fishery managers at NOAA’s regional offices and staff at the National Marine Sanctuaries (NMS) to explore the impact of fishery policies on management objectives at different spatial scales, from single Marine Sanctuaries to the entire Northern California Current. In addition to examining Status Quo management, we explored the consequences of several gear switching and spatial management scenarios. Of the scenarios that involved large scale management changes, no single scenario maximized all performance metrics. Any policy choice would involve trade-offs between stakeholder groups and policy goals. For example, a coast-wide 25% gear shift from trawl to pot or longline appeared to be one possible compromise between an increase in spatial management (which sacrificed revenue) and scenarios such as the one consolidating bottom impacts to deeper areas (which did not perform substantially differently from Status Quo). Judged on a coast-wide scale, most of the scenarios that involved minor or local management changes (e.g. within Monterey Bay NMS only) yielded results similar to Status Quo. When impacts did occur in these cases, they often involved local interactions that were difficult to predict a priori based solely on fishing patterns. However, judged on the local scale, deviation from Status Quo did emerge, particularly for metrics related to stationary species or variables (i.e. habitat and local metrics of landed value or bycatch). We also found that isolated management actions within Monterey Bay NMS would cause local fishers to pay a cost for conservation, in terms of reductions in landed

  4. Bed composition generation for morphodynamic modeling: Case study of San Pablo Bay in California, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Wegen, M.; Dastgheib, A.; Jaffe, B.E.; Roelvink, D.

    2011-01-01

    Applications of process-based morphodynamic models are often constrained by limited availability of data on bed composition, which may have a considerable impact on the modeled morphodynamic development. One may even distinguish a period of "morphodynamic spin-up" in which the model generates the bed level according to some ill-defined initial bed composition rather than describing the realistic behavior of the system. The present paper proposes a methodology to generate bed composition of multiple sand and/or mud fractions that can act as the initial condition for the process-based numerical model Delft3D. The bed composition generation (BCG) run does not include bed level changes, but does permit the redistribution of multiple sediment fractions over the modeled domain. The model applies the concept of an active layer that may differ in sediment composition above an underlayer with fixed composition. In the case of a BCG run, the bed level is kept constant, whereas the bed composition can change. The approach is applied to San Pablo Bay in California, USA. Model results show that the BCG run reallocates sand and mud fractions over the model domain. Initially, a major sediment reallocation takes place, but development rates decrease in the longer term. Runs that take the outcome of a BCG run as a starting point lead to more gradual morphodynamic development. Sensitivity analysis shows the impact of variations in the morphological factor, the active layer thickness, and wind waves. An important but difficult to characterize criterion for a successful application of a BCG run is that it should not lead to a bed composition that fixes the bed so that it dominates the "natural" morphodynamic development of the system. Future research will focus on a decadal morphodynamic hindcast and comparison with measured bathymetries in San Pablo Bay so that the proposed methodology can be tested and optimized. ?? 2010 The Author(s).

  5. Modeling the Seasonal and Interannual Variability of the Northern Gulf of California Salinity

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-02-15

    Schwartzlose (1979), Masas de agua del Golfo de California, Cienc . Mar., 6, 43–63. Argote, M. L., A. Amador, M. F. Lavı’n, and J. R. Hunter (1995...entrance of the Gulf of California, Mexico, Cienc . Mar., 26, 561–583. Enfield, D. B. (1987), The intraseasonal oscillation in eastern Pacific sea levels

  6. Drosophila Glypicans Regulate Follicle Stem Cell Maintenance and Niche Competition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Su, Tsu-Yi; Nakato, Eriko; Choi, Pui Yee; Nakato, Hiroshi

    2018-04-09

    Adult stem cells reside in specialized microenvironments, called niches, which provide signals for stem cells to maintain their undifferentiated and self-renewing state. To maintain stem cell quality, several types of stem cells are known to be regularly replaced by progenitor cells through niche competition. However, the cellular and molecular bases for stem cell competition for niche occupancy are largely unknown. Here, we show that two Drosophila members of the glypican family of heparan sulfate proteoglycans (HSPGs), Dally and Dally-like (Dlp), differentially regulate follicle stem cell (FSC) maintenance and FSC competitiveness for niche occupancy. Lineage analyses of glypican mutant FSC clones showed that dally is essential for normal FSC maintenance. In contrast, dlp is a hyper-competitive mutation: dlp mutant FSC progenitors often eventually occupy the entire epithelial sheet. RNAi knockdown experiments showed that Dally and Dlp play both partially redundant and distinct roles in regulating Jak/Stat, Wg and Hh signaling in FSCs. The Drosophila FSC system offers a powerful genetic model to study the mechanisms by which HSPGs exert specific functions in stem cell replacement and competition. Copyright © 2018, Genetics.

  7. Niche as a determinant of word fate in online groups.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eduardo G Altmann

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Patterns of word use both reflect and influence a myriad of human activities and interactions. Like other entities that are reproduced and evolve, words rise or decline depending upon a complex interplay between their intrinsic properties and the environments in which they function. Using Internet discussion communities as model systems, we define the concept of a word niche as the relationship between the word and the characteristic features of the environments in which it is used. We develop a method to quantify two important aspects of the size of the word niche: the range of individuals using the word and the range of topics it is used to discuss. Controlling for word frequency, we show that these aspects of the word niche are strong determinants of changes in word frequency. Previous studies have already indicated that word frequency itself is a correlate of word success at historical time scales. Our analysis of changes in word frequencies over time reveals that the relative sizes of word niches are far more important than word frequencies in the dynamics of the entire vocabulary at shorter time scales, as the language adapts to new concepts and social groupings. We also distinguish endogenous versus exogenous factors as additional contributors to the fates of words, and demonstrate the force of this distinction in the rise of novel words. Our results indicate that short-term nonstationarity in word statistics is strongly driven by individual proclivities, including inclinations to provide novel information and to project a distinctive social identity.

  8. Risks of ocean acidification in the California Current food web and fisheries: ecosystem model projections.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marshall, Kristin N; Kaplan, Isaac C; Hodgson, Emma E; Hermann, Albert; Busch, D Shallin; McElhany, Paul; Essington, Timothy E; Harvey, Chris J; Fulton, Elizabeth A

    2017-04-01

    The benefits and ecosystem services that humans derive from the oceans are threatened by numerous global change stressors, one of which is ocean acidification. Here, we describe the effects of ocean acidification on an upwelling system that already experiences inherently low pH conditions, the California Current. We used an end-to-end ecosystem model (Atlantis), forced by downscaled global climate models and informed by a meta-analysis of the pH sensitivities of local taxa, to investigate the direct and indirect effects of future pH on biomass and fisheries revenues. Our model projects a 0.2-unit drop in pH during the summer upwelling season from 2013 to 2063, which results in wide-ranging magnitudes of effects across guilds and functional groups. The most dramatic direct effects of future pH may be expected on epibenthic invertebrates (crabs, shrimps, benthic grazers, benthic detritivores, bivalves), and strong indirect effects expected on some demersal fish, sharks, and epibenthic invertebrates (Dungeness crab) because they consume species known to be sensitive to changing pH. The model's pelagic community, including marine mammals and seabirds, was much less influenced by future pH. Some functional groups were less affected to changing pH in the model than might be expected from experimental studies in the empirical literature due to high population productivity (e.g., copepods, pteropods). Model results suggest strong effects of reduced pH on nearshore state-managed invertebrate fisheries, but modest effects on the groundfish fishery because individual groundfish species exhibited diverse responses to changing pH. Our results provide a set of projections that generally support and build upon previous findings and set the stage for hypotheses to guide future modeling and experimental analysis on the effects of OA on marine ecosystems and fisheries. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  9. Stem Cell Plasticity and Niche Dynamics in Cancer Progression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Picco, Noemi; Gatenby, Robert A; Anderson, Alexander R A

    2017-03-01

    Cancer stem cells (CSCs) have been hypothesized to initiate and drive tumor growth and recurrence due to their self-renewal ability. If correct, this hypothesis implies that successful therapy must focus primarily on eradication of this CSC fraction. However, recent evidence suggests stemness is niche dependent and may represent one of many phenotypic states that can be accessed by many cancer genotypes when presented with specific environmental cues. A better understanding of the relationship of stemness to niche-related phenotypic plasticity could lead to alternative treatment strategies. Here, we investigate the role of environmental context in the expression of stem-like cell properties through in-silico simulation of ductal carcinoma. We develop a two-dimensional hybrid discrete-continuum cellular automata model to describe the single-cell scale dynamics of multicellular tissue formation. Through a suite of simulations, we investigate interactions between a phenotypically heterogeneous cancer cell population and a dynamic environment. We generate homeostatic ductal structures that consist of a mixture of stem and differentiated cells governed by both intracellular and environmental dynamics. We demonstrate that a wide spectrum of tumor-like histologies can result from these structures by varying microenvironmental parameters. Niche driven phenotypic plasticity offers a simple first-principle explanation for the diverse ductal structures observed in histological sections from breast cancer. Conventional models of carcinogenesis largely focus on mutational events. We demonstrate that variations in the environmental niche can produce intraductal cancers independent of genetic changes in the resident cells. Therapies targeting the microenvironmental niche may offer an alternative cancer prevention strategy.

  10. Not all renal stem cell niches are the same: anatomy of an evolution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Clara Gerosa

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available The renal stem cell niche represents the most important structure of the developing kidney, responsible for nephrogenesis. Recently, some Authors have reported, at ultrastructural level, a previously unknown complexity of the architecture of renal stem cell niche in experimental models. This study was aimed at studying, at histological level, the anatomy of renal stem cell niches in the human fetal kidney. To this end, ten fetal kidneys, whose gestational ages ranged from 11 up to 24 weeks, were studied. H&E-stained sections were observed at high power. The study of the anatomy of renal stem cell niches in the human kidney revealed a previously unreported complexity: some niches appeared as a roundish arrangement of mesenchymal cells; others showed the initial phases of induction by ureteric buds; in other niches the process of mesenchymal epithelial transition was more evident; finally, in other stem cell niches the first signs of nephron origin were detectable. These findings suggest the existence of niches with different anatomy in the same kidney, indicating different stages of evolution even in adjacent niches. All stem cell niches were in strict contact with the capsular cells, suggesting a major role of the renal capsule in nephrogenesis. Finally, our study confirms the existence of a strict contact between the bud tip cells and the surrounding mesenchyme in the human developing kidney, giving a morphological support to the theory of intercellular channels allowing the passage of transcription factors from the epithelial to the mesenchymal stem/progenitors cells.Proceedings of the 2nd International Course on Perinatal Pathology (part of the 11th International Workshop on Neonatology · October 26th-31st, 2015 · Cagliari (Italy · October 31st, 2015 · Stem cells: present and future Guest Editors: Gavino Faa, Vassilios Fanos, Antonio Giordano

  11. The thermal niche of Neotropical nectar-feeding bats: Its evolution and application to predict responses to global warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ortega-García, Stephanie; Guevara, Lázaro; Arroyo-Cabrales, Joaquín; Lindig-Cisneros, Roberto; Martínez-Meyer, Enrique; Vega, Ernesto; Schondube, Jorge E

    2017-09-01

    The thermal niche of a species is one of the main determinants of its ecology and biogeography. In this study, we determined the thermal niche of 23 species of Neotropical nectar-feeding bats of the subfamily Glossophaginae (Chiroptera, Phyllostomidae). We calculated their thermal niches using temperature data obtained from collection records, by generating a distribution curve of the maximum and minimum temperatures per locality, and using the inflection points of the temperature distributions to estimate the species optimal (STZ) and suboptimal (SRZ) zones of the thermal niche. Additionally, by mapping the values of the STZ and SRZ on a phylogeny of the group, we generated a hypothesis of the evolution of the thermal niches of this clade of nectar-feeding bats. Finally, we used the characteristics of their thermal niches to predict the responses of these organisms to climate change. We found a large variation in the width and limits of the thermal niches of nectar-feeding bats. Additionally, while the upper limits of the thermal niches varied little among species, their lower limits differ wildly. The ancestral reconstruction of the thermal niche indicated that this group of Neotropical bats evolved under cooler temperatures. The two clades inside the Glossophaginae differ in the evolution of their thermal niches, with most members of the clade Choeronycterines evolving "colder" thermal niches, while the majority of the species in the clade Glossophagines evolving "warmer" thermal niches. By comparing thermal niches with climate change models, we found that all species could be affected by an increase of 1°C in temperature at the end of this century. This suggests that even nocturnal species could suffer important physiological costs from global warming. Our study highlights the value of scientific collections to obtain ecologically significant physiological data for a large number of species.

  12. Social intelligence, human intelligence and niche construction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sterelny, Kim

    2007-04-29

    This paper is about the evolution of hominin intelligence. I agree with defenders of the social intelligence hypothesis in thinking that externalist models of hominin intelligence are not plausible: such models cannot explain the unique cognition and cooperation explosion in our lineage, for changes in the external environment (e.g. increasing environmental unpredictability) affect many lineages. Both the social intelligence hypothesis and the social intelligence-ecological complexity hybrid I outline here are niche construction models. Hominin evolution is hominin response to selective environments that earlier hominins have made. In contrast to social intelligence models, I argue that hominins have both created and responded to a unique foraging mode; a mode that is both social in itself and which has further effects on hominin social environments. In contrast to some social intelligence models, on this view, hominin encounters with their ecological environments continue to have profound selective effects. However, though the ecological environment selects, it does not select on its own. Accidents and their consequences, differential success and failure, result from the combination of the ecological environment an agent faces and the social features that enhance some opportunities and suppress others and that exacerbate some dangers and lessen others. Individuals do not face the ecological filters on their environment alone, but with others, and with the technology, information and misinformation that their social world provides.

  13. THE NICHE CONSTRUCTION PERSPECTIVE: A CRITICAL APPRAISAL*

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scott-Phillips, Thomas C; Laland, Kevin N; Shuker, David M; Dickins, Thomas E; West, Stuart A

    2014-01-01

    Niche construction refers to the activities of organisms that bring about changes in their environments, many of which are evolutionarily and ecologically consequential. Advocates of niche construction theory (NCT) believe that standard evolutionary theory fails to recognize the full importance of niche construction, and consequently propose a novel view of evolution, in which niche construction and its legacy over time (ecological inheritance) are described as evolutionary processes, equivalent in importance to natural selection. Here, we subject NCT to critical evaluation, in the form of a collaboration between one prominent advocate of NCT, and a team of skeptics. We discuss whether niche construction is an evolutionary process, whether NCT obscures or clarifies how natural selection leads to organismal adaptation, and whether niche construction and natural selection are of equivalent explanatory importance. We also consider whether the literature that promotes NCT overstates the significance of niche construction, whether it is internally coherent, and whether it accurately portrays standard evolutionary theory. Our disagreements reflect a wider dispute within evolutionary theory over whether the neo-Darwinian synthesis is in need of reformulation, as well as different usages of some key terms (e.g., evolutionary process). PMID:24325256

  14. The niche construction perspective: a critical appraisal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scott-Phillips, Thomas C; Laland, Kevin N; Shuker, David M; Dickins, Thomas E; West, Stuart A

    2014-05-01

    Niche construction refers to the activities of organisms that bring about changes in their environments, many of which are evolutionarily and ecologically consequential. Advocates of niche construction theory (NCT) believe that standard evolutionary theory fails to recognize the full importance of niche construction, and consequently propose a novel view of evolution, in which niche construction and its legacy over time (ecological inheritance) are described as evolutionary processes, equivalent in importance to natural selection. Here, we subject NCT to critical evaluation, in the form of a collaboration between one prominent advocate of NCT, and a team of skeptics. We discuss whether niche construction is an evolutionary process, whether NCT obscures or clarifies how natural selection leads to organismal adaptation, and whether niche construction and natural selection are of equivalent explanatory importance. We also consider whether the literature that promotes NCT overstates the significance of niche construction, whether it is internally coherent, and whether it accurately portrays standard evolutionary theory. Our disagreements reflect a wider dispute within evolutionary theory over whether the neo-Darwinian synthesis is in need of reformulation, as well as different usages of some key terms (e.g., evolutionary process). © 2013 The Author(s). Evolution published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of The Society for the Study of Evolution.

  15. A numerical test method of California bearing ratio on graded crushed rocks using particle flow modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yingjun Jiang

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available In order to better understand the mechanical properties of graded crushed rocks (GCRs and to optimize the relevant design, a numerical test method based on the particle flow modeling technique PFC2D is developed for the California bearing ratio (CBR test on GCRs. The effects of different testing conditions and micro-mechanical parameters used in the model on the CBR numerical results have been systematically studied. The reliability of the numerical technique is verified. The numerical results suggest that the influences of the loading rate and Poisson's ratio on the CBR numerical test results are not significant. As such, a loading rate of 1.0–3.0 mm/min, a piston diameter of 5 cm, a specimen height of 15 cm and a specimen diameter of 15 cm are adopted for the CBR numerical test. The numerical results reveal that the CBR values increase with the friction coefficient at the contact and shear modulus of the rocks, while the influence of Poisson's ratio on the CBR values is insignificant. The close agreement between the CBR numerical results and experimental results suggests that the numerical simulation of the CBR values is promising to help assess the mechanical properties of GCRs and to optimize the grading design. Besides, the numerical study can provide useful insights on the mesoscopic mechanism.

  16. Calibration of numerical models for small debris flows in Yosemite Valley, California, USA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Bertolo

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available This study compares documented debris flow runout distances with numerical simulations in the Yosemite Valley of California, USA, where about 15% of historical events of slope instability can be classified as debris flows and debris slides (Wieczorek and Snyder, 2004. To model debris flows in the Yosemite Valley, we selected six streams with evidence of historical debris flows; three of the debris flow deposits have single channels, and the other three split their pattern in the fan area into two or more channels. From field observations all of the debris flows involved coarse material, with only very small clay content. We applied the one dimensional DAN (Dynamic ANalysis model (Hungr, 1995 and the two-dimensional FLO-2D model (O'Brien et al., 1993 to predict and compare the runout distance and the velocity of the debris flows observed in the study area. As a first step, we calibrated the parameters for the two softwares through the back analysis of three debris- flows channels using a trial-and-error procedure starting with values suggested in the literature. In the second step we applied the selected values to the other channels, in order to evaluate their predictive capabilities. After parameter calibration using three debris flows we obtained results similar to field observations We also obtained a good agreement between the two models for velocities. Both models are strongly influenced by topography: we used the 30 m cell size DTM available for the study area, that is probably not accurate enough for a highly detailed analysis, but it can be sufficient for a first screening.

  17. Macrophytes shape trophic niche variation among generalist fishes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivana Vejříková

    Full Text Available Generalist species commonly have a fundamental role in ecosystems as they can integrate spatially distinct habitats and food-web compartments, as well as control the composition, abundance and behavior of organisms at different trophic levels. Generalist populations typically consist of specialized individuals, but the potential for and hence degree of individual niche variation can be largely determined by habitat complexity. We compared individual niche variation within three generalist fishes between two comparable lakes in the Czech Republic differing in macrophyte cover, i.e. macrophyte-rich Milada and macrophyte-poor Most. We tested the hypothesis that large individual niche variation among generalist fishes is facilitated by the presence of macrophytes, which provides niches and predation shelter for fish and their prey items. Based on results from stable nitrogen (δ15N and carbon (δ13C isotopic mixing models, perch (Perca fluviatilis L. and rudd (Scardinius erythrophthalmus (L. showed larger individual variation (i.e., variance in trophic position in Milada as compared to Most, whereas no significant between-lake differences were observed for roach (Rutilus rutilus (L.. Contrary to our hypothesis, all the three species showed significantly lower individual variation in the relative reliance on littoral food resources in Milada than in Most. Rudd relied significantly more whereas perch and roach relied less on littoral food resources in Milada than in Most, likely due to prevalent herbivory by rudd and prevalent zooplanktivory by perch and roach in the macrophyte-rich Milada as compared to macrophyte-poor Most. Our study demonstrates how the succession of macrophyte vegetation, via its effects on the physical and biological complexity of the littoral zone and on the availability of small prey fish and zooplankton, can strongly influence individual niche variation among generalist fishes with different ontogenetic trajectories, and hence

  18. Macrophytes shape trophic niche variation among generalist fishes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vejřík, Lukáš; Šmejkal, Marek; Čech, Martin; Sajdlová, Zuzana; Frouzová, Jaroslava; Kiljunen, Mikko; Peterka, Jiří

    2017-01-01

    Generalist species commonly have a fundamental role in ecosystems as they can integrate spatially distinct habitats and food-web compartments, as well as control the composition, abundance and behavior of organisms at different trophic levels. Generalist populations typically consist of specialized individuals, but the potential for and hence degree of individual niche variation can be largely determined by habitat complexity. We compared individual niche variation within three generalist fishes between two comparable lakes in the Czech Republic differing in macrophyte cover, i.e. macrophyte-rich Milada and macrophyte-poor Most. We tested the hypothesis that large individual niche variation among generalist fishes is facilitated by the presence of macrophytes, which provides niches and predation shelter for fish and their prey items. Based on results from stable nitrogen (δ15N) and carbon (δ13C) isotopic mixing models, perch (Perca fluviatilis L.) and rudd (Scardinius erythrophthalmus (L.)) showed larger individual variation (i.e., variance) in trophic position in Milada as compared to Most, whereas no significant between-lake differences were observed for roach (Rutilus rutilus (L.)). Contrary to our hypothesis, all the three species showed significantly lower individual variation in the relative reliance on littoral food resources in Milada than in Most. Rudd relied significantly more whereas perch and roach relied less on littoral food resources in Milada than in Most, likely due to prevalent herbivory by rudd and prevalent zooplanktivory by perch and roach in the macrophyte-rich Milada as compared to macrophyte-poor Most. Our study demonstrates how the succession of macrophyte vegetation, via its effects on the physical and biological complexity of the littoral zone and on the availability of small prey fish and zooplankton, can strongly influence individual niche variation among generalist fishes with different ontogenetic trajectories, and hence the overall

  19. A statistical learning framework for groundwater nitrate models of the Central Valley, California, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nolan, Bernard T.; Fienen, Michael N.; Lorenz, David L.

    2015-01-01

    We used a statistical learning framework to evaluate the ability of three machine-learning methods to predict nitrate concentration in shallow groundwater of the Central Valley, California: boosted regression trees (BRT), artificial neural networks (ANN), and Bayesian networks (BN). Machine learning methods can learn complex patterns in the data but because of overfitting may not generalize well to new data. The statistical learning framework involves cross-validation (CV) training and testing data and a separate hold-out data set for model evaluation, with the goal of optimizing predictive performance by controlling for model overfit. The order of prediction performance according to both CV testing R2 and that for the hold-out data set was BRT > BN > ANN. For each method we identified two models based on CV testing results: that with maximum testing R2 and a version with R2 within one standard error of the maximum (the 1SE model). The former yielded CV training R2 values of 0.94–1.0. Cross-validation testing R2 values indicate predictive performance, and these were 0.22–0.39 for the maximum R2 models and 0.19–0.36 for the 1SE models. Evaluation with hold-out data suggested that the 1SE BRT and ANN models predicted better for an independent data set compared with the maximum R2 versions, which is relevant to extrapolation by mapping. Scatterplots of predicted vs. observed hold-out data obtained for final models helped identify prediction bias, which was fairly pronounced for ANN and BN. Lastly, the models were compared with multiple linear regression (MLR) and a previous random forest regression (RFR) model. Whereas BRT results were comparable to RFR, MLR had low hold-out R2 (0.07) and explained less than half the variation in the training data. Spatial patterns of predictions by the final, 1SE BRT model agreed reasonably well with previously observed patterns of nitrate occurrence in groundwater of the Central Valley.

  20. CyberShake: A Physics-Based Seismic Hazard Model for Southern California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graves, R.; Jordan, T.H.; Callaghan, S.; Deelman, E.; Field, E.; Juve, G.; Kesselman, C.; Maechling, P.; Mehta, G.; Milner, K.; Okaya, D.; Small, P.; Vahi, K.

    2011-01-01

    CyberShake, as part of the Southern California Earthquake Center's (SCEC) Community Modeling Environment, is developing a methodology that explicitly incorporates deterministic source and wave propagation effects within seismic hazard calculations through the use of physics-based 3D ground motion simulations. To calculate a waveform-based seismic hazard estimate for a site of interest, we begin with Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 2.0 (UCERF2.0) and identify all ruptures within 200 km of the site of interest. We convert the UCERF2.0 rupture definition into multiple rupture variations with differing hypocenter locations and slip distributions, resulting in about 415,000 rupture variations per site. Strain Green Tensors are calculated for the site of interest using the SCEC Community Velocity Model, Version 4 (CVM4), and then, using reciprocity, we calculate synthetic seismograms for each rupture variation. Peak intensity measures are then extracted from these synthetics and combined with the original rupture probabilities to produce probabilistic seismic hazard curves for the site. Being explicitly site-based, CyberShake directly samples the ground motion variability at that site over many earthquake cycles (i. e., rupture scenarios) and alleviates the need for the ergodic assumption that is implicitly included in traditional empirically based calculations. Thus far, we have simulated ruptures at over 200 sites in the Los Angeles region for ground shaking periods of 2 s and longer, providing the basis for the first generation CyberShake hazard maps. Our results indicate that the combination of rupture directivity and basin response effects can lead to an increase in the hazard level for some sites, relative to that given by a conventional Ground Motion Prediction Equation (GMPE). Additionally, and perhaps more importantly, we find that the physics-based hazard results are much more sensitive to the assumed magnitude-area relations and

  1. Newport-Inglewood-Carlsbad-Coronado Bank Fault System Nearshore Southern California: Testing models for Quaternary deformation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bennett, J. T.; Sorlien, C. C.; Cormier, M.; Bauer, R. L.

    2011-12-01

    The San Andreas fault system is distributed across hundreds of kilometers in southern California. This transform system includes offshore faults along the shelf, slope and basin- comprising part of the Inner California Continental Borderland. Previously, offshore faults have been interpreted as being discontinuous and striking parallel to the coast between Long Beach and San Diego. Our recent work, based on several thousand kilometers of deep-penetration industry multi-channel seismic reflection data (MCS) as well as high resolution U.S. Geological Survey MCS, indicates that many of the offshore faults are more geometrically continuous than previously reported. Stratigraphic interpretations of MCS profiles included the ca. 1.8 Ma Top Lower Pico, which was correlated from wells located offshore Long Beach (Sorlien et. al. 2010). Based on this age constraint, four younger (Late) Quaternary unconformities are interpreted through the slope and basin. The right-lateral Newport-Inglewood fault continues offshore near Newport Beach. We map a single fault for 25 kilometers that continues to the southeast along the base of the slope. There, the Newport-Inglewood fault splits into the San Mateo-Carlsbad fault, which is mapped for 55 kilometers along the base of the slope to a sharp bend. This bend is the northern end of a right step-over of 10 kilometers to the Descanso fault and about 17 km to the Coronado Bank fault. We map these faults for 50 kilometers as they continue over the Mexican border. Both the San Mateo - Carlsbad with the Newport-Inglewood fault and the Coronado Bank with the Descanso fault are paired faults that form flower structures (positive and negative, respectively) in cross section. Preliminary kinematic models indicate ~1km of right-lateral slip since ~1.8 Ma at the north end of the step-over. We are modeling the slip on the southern segment to test our hypothesis for a kinematically continuous right-lateral fault system. We are correlating four

  2. The United States pork niche market phenomenon.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Honeyman, M S; Pirog, R S; Huber, G H; Lammers, P J; Hermann, J R

    2006-08-01

    After the broad industrialization of the US pork industry, there has been a development of niche markets for export and domestic pork; that is, there is a pork niche market phenomenon. The US pork niche market phenomenon is characterized, and 2 of the major markets are explained in detail. With the Midwest's tradition of a diversified family-based agriculture and record low hog prices of the late 1990s, the conditions were conducive for this phenomenon to develop. Pork niche markets utilize various sales methods including Internet sales, local abattoir sales, direct marketing, farmer networks, and targeting to organized groups. In 2003, there were approximately 35 to 40 active pork niche marketing efforts in Iowa. The Berkshire breed is an example of a swine breed that has had a recent resurgence because of niche markets. Berkshire pork is known for tenderness and excellent quality. Berkshire registrations have increased 4-fold in the last 10 yr. One of the larger niche marketers of "natural pork" is Niman Ranch Pork, which has more than 400 farmer-producers and processes about 2,500 pigs weekly. Many US consumers of pork are interested in issues concerning the environment, food safety, pig welfare, and pig farm ownership and structure. These consumers may be willing to pay more for pork from farmers who are also concerned about these issues. Small- and medium-sized swine farmers are active in pork niche markets. Niche markets claim product differentiation by superior or unique product quality and social attributes. Quality attributes include certain swine breeds, and meat quality, freshness, taste or flavor, and tenderness. Social or credence attributes often are claimed and include freedom from antibiotics and growth promotants; local family farm production; natural, organic, outdoor, or bedded rearing; humane rearing; known origin; environmentally friendly production; and the absence of animal by-products in the feed. Niche pork markets and alternative swine

  3. Absence of respiratory inflammatory reaction of elemental sulfur using the California Pesticide Illness Database and a mouse model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Kiyoung; Smith, Jodi L; Last, Jerold A

    2005-01-01

    Elemental sulfur, a natural substance, is used as a fungicide. Elemental sulfur is the most heavily used agricultural chemical in California. In 2003, annual sulfur usage in California was about 34% of the total weight of pesticide active ingredient used in production agriculture. Even though sulfur is mostly used in dust form, the respiratory health effects of elemental sulfur are not well documented. The purpose of this paper is to address the possible respiratory effect of elemental sulfur using the California Pesticide Illness Database and laboratory experiments with mice. We analyzed the California Pesticide Illness Database between 1991 and 2001. Among 127 reports of definite, probable, and possible illness involving sulfur, 21 cases (16%) were identified as respiratory related. A mouse model was used to examine whether there was an inflammatory or fibrotic response to elemental sulfur. Dust solutions were injected intratracheally into ovalbumin sensitized mice and lung damage was evaluated. Lung inflammatory response was analyzed via total lavage cell counts and differentials, and airway collagen content was analyzed histologically and biochemically. No significant differences from controls were seen in animals exposed to sulfur particles. The findings suggest that acute exposure of elemental sulfur itself may not cause an inflammatory reaction. However, further studies are needed to understand the possible health effects of chronic sulfur exposure and environmental weathering of sulfur dust.

  4. Quantifying and modeling soil erosion and sediment export from construction sites in southern California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wernet, A. K.; Beighley, R. E.

    2006-12-01

    Soil erosion is a power process that continuously alters the Earth's landscape. Human activities, such as construction and agricultural practices, and natural events, such as forest fires and landslides, disturb the landscape and intensify erosion processes leading to sudden increases in runoff sediment concentrations and degraded stream water quality. Understanding soil erosion and sediment transport processes is of great importance to researchers and practicing engineers, who routinely use models to predict soil erosion and sediment movement for varied land use and climate change scenarios. However, existing erosion models are limited in their applicability to constructions sites which have highly variable soil conditions (density, moisture, surface roughness, and best management practices) that change often in both space and time. The goal of this research is to improve the understanding, predictive capabilities and integration of treatment methodologies for controlling soil erosion and sediment export from construction sites. This research combines modeling with field monitoring and laboratory experiments to quantify: (a) spatial and temporal distribution of soil conditions on construction sites, (b) soil erosion due to event rainfall, and (c) potential offsite discharge of sediment with and without treatment practices. Field sites in southern California were selected to monitor the effects of common construction activities (ex., cut/fill, grading, foundations, roads) on soil conditions and sediment discharge. Laboratory experiments were performed in the Soil Erosion Research Laboratory (SERL), part of the Civil and Environmental Engineering department at San Diego State University, to quantify the impact of individual factors leading to sediment export. SERL experiments utilize a 3-m by 10-m tilting soil bed with soil depths up to 1 m, slopes ranging from 0 to 50 percent, and rainfall rates up to 150 mm/hr (6 in/hr). Preliminary modeling, field and laboratory

  5. Correspondence of biological condition models of California streams at statewide and regional scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    May, Jason T.; Brown, Larry R.; Rehn, Andrew C.; Waite, Ian R.; Ode, Peter R; Mazor, Raphael D; Schiff, Kenneth C

    2015-01-01

    taxonomic completeness is imperative for sound management. Our results suggest that invertebrate taxonomic completeness is affected by human disturbance at the statewide and regional levels, with some differences among regions in the importance of natural gradients and types of human disturbance. The construction and application of models similar to the ones presented here could be useful in the planning and prioritization of actions for protection and conservation of biodiversity in California streams.

  6. 2009-2011 CA Coastal California TopoBathy Merged Project Digital Elevation Model (DEM)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This project merged recently collected topographic, bathymetric, and acoustic elevation data along the entire California coastline from approximately the 10 meter...

  7. 2013 NOAA Coastal California TopoBathy Merge Project Digital Elevation Model (DEM)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This project merged recently collected topographic, bathymetric, and acoustic elevation data along the entire California coastline from approximately the 10 meter...

  8. A rheologically layered three-dimensional model of the San Andreas fault in central and southern California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Charles A.; Richardson, Randall M.

    1991-01-01

    The effects of rheological parameters and the fault slip distribution on the horizontal and vertical deformation in the vicinity of the fault are investigated using 3D kinematic finite element models of the San Andreas fault in central and southern California. It is shown that fault models with different rheological stratification schemes and slip distributions predict characteristic deformation patterns. Models that do not include aseismic slip below the fault locking depth predict deformation patterns that are strongly dependent on time since the last earthquake, while models that incorporate the aseismic slip below the locking depth depend on time to a significantly lesser degree.

  9. Estimating California ecosystem carbon change using process model and land cover disturbance data: 1951-2000

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Jinxun; Vogelmann, James E.; Zhu, Zhiliang; Key, Carl H.; Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Price, D.T.; Chen, Jing M.; Cochrane, Mark A.; Eidenshink, Jeffery C.; Howard, Stephen M.; Bliss, Norman B.; Jiang, Hong

    2011-01-01

    Land use change, natural disturbance, and climate change directly alter ecosystem productivity and carbon stock level. The estimation of ecosystem carbon dynamics depends on the quality of land cover change data and the effectiveness of the ecosystem models that represent the vegetation growth processes and disturbance effects. We used the Integrated Biosphere Simulator (IBIS) and a set of 30- to 60-m resolution fire and land cover change data to examine the carbon changes of California's forests, shrublands, and grasslands. Simulation results indicate that during 1951–2000, the net primary productivity (NPP) increased by 7%, from 72.2 to 77.1 Tg C yr−1 (1 teragram = 1012 g), mainly due to CO2 fertilization, since the climate hardly changed during this period. Similarly, heterotrophic respiration increased by 5%, from 69.4 to 73.1 Tg C yr−1, mainly due to increased forest soil carbon and temperature. Net ecosystem production (NEP) was highly variable in the 50-year period but on average equalled 3.0 Tg C yr−1 (total of 149 Tg C). As with NEP, the net biome production (NBP) was also highly variable but averaged −0.55 Tg C yr−1 (total of –27.3 Tg C) because NBP in the 1980s was very low (–5.34 Tg C yr−1). During the study period, a total of 126 Tg carbon were removed by logging and land use change, and 50 Tg carbon were directly removed by wildland fires. For carbon pools, the estimated total living upper canopy (tree) biomass decreased from 928 to 834 Tg C, and the understory (including shrub and grass) biomass increased from 59 to 63 Tg C. Soil carbon and dead biomass carbon increased from 1136 to 1197 Tg C.Our analyses suggest that both natural and human processes have significant influence on the carbon change in California. During 1951–2000, climate interannual variability was the key driving force for the large interannual changes of ecosystem carbon source and sink at the state level, while logging and fire

  10. Current and future niche of North and Central American sand flies (Diptera: psychodidae in climate change scenarios.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Moo-Llanes

    Full Text Available Ecological niche models are useful tools to infer potential spatial and temporal distributions in vector species and to measure epidemiological risk for infectious diseases such as the Leishmaniases. The ecological niche of 28 North and Central American sand fly species, including those with epidemiological relevance, can be used to analyze the vector's ecology and its association with transmission risk, and plan integrated regional vector surveillance and control programs. In this study, we model the environmental requirements of the principal North and Central American phlebotomine species and analyze three niche characteristics over future climate change scenarios: i potential change in niche breadth, ii direction and magnitude of niche centroid shifts, iii shifts in elevation range. Niche identity between confirmed or incriminated Leishmania vector sand flies in Mexico, and human cases were analyzed. Niche models were constructed using sand fly occurrence datapoints from Canada, USA, Mexico, Guatemala and Belize. Nine non-correlated bioclimatic and four topographic data layers were used as niche components using GARP in OpenModeller. Both B2 and A2 climate change scenarios were used with two general circulation models for each scenario (CSIRO and HadCM3, for 2020, 2050 and 2080. There was an increase in niche breadth to 2080 in both scenarios for all species with the exception of Lutzomyia vexator. The principal direction of niche centroid displacement was to the northwest (64%, while the elevation range decreased greatest for tropical, and least for broad-range species. Lutzomyia cruciata is the only epidemiologically important species with high niche identity with that of Leishmania spp. in Mexico. Continued landscape modification in future climate change will provide an increased opportunity for the geographic expansion of NCA sand flys' ENM and human exposure to vectors of Leishmaniases.

  11. Current and Future Niche of North and Central American Sand Flies (Diptera: Psychodidae) in Climate Change Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moo-Llanes, David; Ibarra-Cerdeña, Carlos N.; Rebollar-Téllez, Eduardo A.; Ibáñez-Bernal, Sergio; González, Camila; Ramsey, Janine M.

    2013-01-01

    Ecological niche models are useful tools to infer potential spatial and temporal distributions in vector species and to measure epidemiological risk for infectious diseases such as the Leishmaniases. The ecological niche of 28 North and Central American sand fly species, including those with epidemiological relevance, can be used to analyze the vector's ecology and its association with transmission risk, and plan integrated regional vector surveillance and control programs. In this study, we model the environmental requirements of the principal North and Central American phlebotomine species and analyze three niche characteristics over future climate change scenarios: i) potential change in niche breadth, ii) direction and magnitude of niche centroid shifts, iii) shifts in elevation range. Niche identity between confirmed or incriminated Leishmania vector sand flies in Mexico, and human cases were analyzed. Niche models were constructed using sand fly occurrence datapoints from Canada, USA, Mexico, Guatemala and Belize. Nine non-correlated bioclimatic and four topographic data layers were used as niche components using GARP in OpenModeller. Both B2 and A2 climate change scenarios were used with two general circulation models for each scenario (CSIRO and HadCM3), for 2020, 2050 and 2080. There was an increase in niche breadth to 2080 in both scenarios for all species with the exception of Lutzomyia vexator. The principal direction of niche centroid displacement was to the northwest (64%), while the elevation range decreased greatest for tropical, and least for broad-range species. Lutzomyia cruciata is the only epidemiologically important species with high niche identity with that of Leishmania spp. in Mexico. Continued landscape modification in future climate change will provide an increased opportunity for the geographic expansion of NCA sand flys' ENM and human exposure to vectors of Leishmaniases. PMID:24069478

  12. Applicability of Related Data, Algorithms, and Models to the Simulation of Ground-Coupled Residential Hot Water Piping in California

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Warner, J.L.; Lutz, J.D.

    2006-01-01

    Residential water heating is an important consideration in California?s building energy efficiency standard. Explicit treatment of ground-coupled hot water piping is one of several planned improvements to the standard. The properties of water, piping, insulation, backfill materials, concrete slabs, and soil, their interactions, and their variations with temperature and over time are important considerations in the required supporting analysis. Heat transfer algorithms and models devised for generalized, hot water distribution system, ground-source heat pump and ground heat exchanger, nuclear waste repository, buried oil pipeline, and underground electricity transmission cable applications can be adapted to the simulation of under-slab water piping. A numerical model that permits detailed examination of and broad variations in many inputs while employing a technique to conserve computer run time is recommended.

  13. Modeling long period swell in Southern California: Practical boundary conditions from buoy observations and global wave model predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crosby, S. C.; O'Reilly, W. C.; Guza, R. T.

    2016-02-01

    Accurate, unbiased, high-resolution (in space and time) nearshore wave predictions are needed to drive models of beach erosion, coastal flooding, and alongshore transport of sediment, biota and pollutants. On highly sheltered shorelines, wave predictions are sensitive to the directions of onshore propagating waves, and nearshore model prediction error is often dominated by uncertainty in offshore boundary conditions. Offshore islands and shoals, and coastline curvature, create complex sheltering patterns over the 250km span of southern California (SC) shoreline. Here, regional wave model skill in SC was compared for different offshore boundary conditions created using offshore buoy observations and global wave model hindcasts (National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration Wave Watch 3, WW3). Spectral ray-tracing methods were used to transform incident offshore swell (0.04-0.09Hz) energy at high directional resolution (1-deg). Model skill is assessed for predictions (wave height, direction, and alongshore radiation stress) at 16 nearshore buoy sites between 2000 and 2009. Model skill using buoy-derived boundary conditions is higher than with WW3-derived boundary conditions. Buoy-driven nearshore model results are similar with various assumptions about the true offshore directional distribution (maximum entropy, Bayesian direct, and 2nd derivative smoothness). Two methods combining offshore buoy observations with WW3 predictions in the offshore boundary condition did not improve nearshore skill above buoy-only methods. A case example at Oceanside harbor shows strong sensitivity of alongshore sediment transport predictions to different offshore boundary conditions. Despite this uncertainty in alongshore transport magnitude, alongshore gradients in transport (e.g. the location of model accretion and erosion zones) are determined by the local bathymetry, and are similar for all predictions.

  14. CROSS DRIFT ALCOVE/NICHE UTILITIES ANALYSIS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    S. Goodin

    1999-01-01

    The purpose of this analysis is to provide the design basis and general arrangement requirements of the non-potable water, waste water, compressed air and ventilation (post excavation) utilities required in support of the Cross Drift alcoves and niches

  15. Niche divergence builds the case for ecological speciation in skinks of the Plestiodon skiltonianus species complex

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wogan, Guinevere O.U.; Richmond, Jonathan Q.

    2015-01-01

    Adaptation to different thermal environments has the potential to cause evolutionary changes that are sufficient to drive ecological speciation. Here, we examine whether climate-based niche divergence in lizards of the Plestiodon skiltonianus species complex is consistent with the outcomes of such a process. Previous work on this group shows that a mechanical sexual barrier has evolved between species that differ mainly in body size and that the barrier may be a by-product of selection for increased body size in lineages that have invaded xeric environments; however, baseline information on niche divergence among members of the group is lacking. We quantified the climatic niche using mechanistic physiological and correlative niche models and then estimated niche differences among species using ordination techniques and tests of niche overlap and equivalency. Our results show that the thermal niches of size-divergent, reproductively isolated morphospecies are significantly differentiated and that precipitation may have been as important as temperature in causing increased shifts in body size in xeric habitats. While these findings alone do not demonstrate thermal adaptation or identify the cause of speciation, their integration with earlier genetic and behavioral studies provides a useful test of phenotype–environment associations that further support the case for ecological speciation in these lizards.

  16. A niche marketing guide for lamb cooperatives

    OpenAIRE

    Kazmierczak, Tamra Kirkpatrick; Bell, James B.

    1995-01-01

    The two types of niche markets targeted by lamb marketing cooperatives are described in this guide. The first type includes specialty middlemen outlets that cooperatives used to market lamb to specialized niches within the traditional meat marketing system of retail food stores, restaurants, food service outlets, and specialty distributors. The second type includes those outlets that cooperatives used to market lamb directly to the consumer, such as freezer markets, farmers' markets, mobile m...

  17. California Dental Hygiene Educators' Perceptions of an Application of the ADHA Advanced Dental Hygiene Practitioner (ADHP) Model in Medical Settings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Lauren; Walsh, Margaret

    2015-12-01

    To assess California dental hygiene educators' perceptions of an application of the American Dental Hygienists' Association's (ADHA) advanced dental hygiene practitioner model (ADHP) in medical settings where the advanced dental hygiene practitioner collaborates in medical settings with other health professionals to meet clients' oral health needs. In 2014, 30 directors of California dental hygiene programs were contacted to participate in and distribute an online survey to their faculty. In order to capture non-respondents, 2 follow-up e-mails were sent. Descriptive analysis and cross-tabulations were analyzed using the online survey software program, Qualtrics™. The educator response rate was 18% (70/387). Nearly 90% of respondents supported the proposed application of the ADHA ADHP model and believed it would increase access to care and reduce oral health disparities. They also agreed with most of the proposed services, target populations and workplace settings. Slightly over half believed a master's degree was the appropriate educational level needed. Among California dental hygiene educators responding to this survey, there was strong support for the proposed application of the ADHA model in medical settings. More research is needed among a larger sample of dental hygiene educators and clinicians, as well as among other health professionals such as physicians, nurses and dentists. Copyright © 2015 The American Dental Hygienists’ Association.

  18. West Coast fish, mammal, and bird species diets - Developing end-to-end models of the California Current Large Marine Ecosystem

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The purpose of this project is to develop spatially discrete end-to-end models of the California Current LME, linking oceanography, biogeochemistry, food web...

  19. West Coast fish, mammal, bird life history and abunance parameters - Developing end-to-end models of the California Current Large Marine Ecosystem

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The purpose of this project is to develop spatially discrete end-to-end models of the California Current LME, linking oceanography, biogeochemistry, food web...

  20. Field Scale Groundwater Nitrate Loading Model for the Central Valley, California, 1945-Current

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harter, T.; Dzurella, K.; Bell, A.; Kourakos, G.

    2015-12-01

    Anthropogenic groundwater nitrate contamination in the Central Valley aquifer system, California, is widespread, with over 40% of domestic wells in some counties exceeding drinking water standards. Sources of groundwater nitrate include leaky municipal wastewater systems, municipal wastewater recharge, onsite wastewater treatment (septic) systems, atmospheric nitrogen deposition, animal farming, application of organic waste materials (sludge, biosolids, animal manure) to agricultural lands, and synthetic fertilizer. At the site or field scale, nitrogen inputs to the landscape are balanced by plant nitrogen uptake and harvest, atmospheric nitrogen losses, surface runoff of nitrogen, soil nitrogen storage changes, and leaching to groundwater. Irrigated agriculture is a dominant player in the Central Valley nitrogen cycle: The largest nitrogen fluxes are synthetic fertilizer and animal manure applications to cropland, crop nitrogen uptake, and groundwater nitrogen losses. We construct a historic field/parcel scale groundwater nitrogen loading model distinguishing urban and residential areas, individual animal farming areas, leaky wastewater lagoons, and approximately 50 different categories of agricultural crops. For non-agricultural landuses, groundwater nitrate loading is based on reported leaching values, animal population, and human population. For cropland, groundwater nitrate loading is computed from mass balance, taking into account diverse and historically changing management practices between different crops. Groundwater nitrate loading is estimated for 1945 to current. Significant increases in groundwater nitrate loading are associated with the expansion of synthetic fertilizer use in the 1950s to 1970s. Nitrate loading from synthetic fertilizer use has stagnated over the past 20 years due to improvements in nutrient use efficiency. However, an unbroken 60 year exponential increase in dairy production until the late 2000s has significantly impacted the

  1. Accounting for Taste Heterogeneity in Purchase Channel Intention Modeling: An Example from Northern California for Book Purchases

    OpenAIRE

    Tang, Wei; Mokhtarian, Patricia L

    2009-01-01

    This study uses latent class modeling (LCM) to explore the effects of channel-specific perceptions, along with other variables, on purchase channel intention. Using data on book purchases collected from an Internet-based survey of two university towns in Northern California, we develop a latent class model with two segments (final N=373). Age turns out to be the only observed determinant of class membership, and in the intention model, the mostly-younger segment is more cost-sensitive and the...

  2. River and Reservoir Operations Model, Truckee River basin, California and Nevada, 1998

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berris, Steven N.; Hess, Glen W.; Bohman, Larry R.

    2001-01-01

    The demand for all uses of water in the Truckee River Basin, California and Nevada, commonly is greater than can be supplied. Storage reservoirs in the system have a maximum effective total capacity equivalent to less than two years of average river flows, so longer-term droughts can result in substantial water-supply shortages for irrigation and municipal users and may stress fish and wildlife ecosystems. Title II of Public Law (P.L.) 101-618, the Truckee?Carson?Pyramid Lake Water Rights Settlement Act of 1990, provides a foundation for negotiating and developing operating criteria, known as the Truckee River Operating Agreement (TROA), to balance interstate and interbasin allocation of water rights among the many interests competing for water from the Truckee River. In addition to TROA, the Truckee River Water Quality Settlement Agreement (WQSA), signed in 1996, provides for acquisition of water rights to resolve water-quality problems during low flows along the Truckee River in Nevada. Efficient execution of many of the planning, management, or environmental assessment requirements of TROA and WQSA will require detailed water-resources data coupled with sound analytical tools. Analytical modeling tools constructed and evaluated with such data could help assess effects of alternative operational scenarios related to reservoir and river operations, water-rights transfers, and changes in irrigation practices. The Truckee?Carson Program of the U.S. Geological Survey, to support U.S. Department of the Interior implementation of P.L. 101-618, is developing a modeling system to support efficient water-resources planning, management, and allocation. The daily operations model documented herein is a part of the modeling system that includes a database management program, a graphical user interface program, and a program with modules that simulate river/reservoir operations and a variety of hydrologic processes. The operations module is capable of simulating lake

  3. Ecological niche modeling for visceral leishmaniasis in the state of Bahia, Brazil, using genetic algorithm for rule-set prediction and growing degree day-water budget analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Prixia Nieto

    2006-11-01

    Full Text Available Two predictive models were developed within a geographic information system using Genetic Algorithm Rule-Set Prediction (GARP and the growing degree day (GDD-water budget (WB concept to predict the distribution and potential risk of visceral leishmaniasis (VL in the State of Bahia, Brazil. The objective was to define the environmental suitability of the disease as well as to obtain a deeper understanding of the eco-epidemiology of VL by associating environmental and climatic variables with disease prevalence. Both the GARP model and the GDDWB model, using different analysis approaches and with the same human prevalence database, predicted similar distribution and abundance patterns for the Lutzomyia longipalpis-Leishmania chagasi system in Bahia. High and moderate prevalence sites for VL were significantly related to areas of high and moderate risk prediction by: (i the area predicted by the GARP model, depending on the number of pixels that overlapped among eleven annual model years, and (ii the number of potential generations per year that could be completed by the Lu. longipalpis-L. chagasi system by GDD-WB analysis. When applied to the ecological zones of Bahia, both the GARP and the GDD-WB prediction models suggest that the highest VL risk is in the interior region of the state, characterized by a semi-arid and hot climate known as Caatinga, while the risk in the Bahia interior forest and the Cerrado ecological regions is lower. The Bahia coastal forest was predicted to be a low-risk area due to the unsuitable conditions for the vector and VL transmission.

  4. When does it pay to invest in a patch? The evolution of intentional niche construction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohlenhoff, Kathryn A; Codding, Brian F

    2017-09-01

    Humans modify their environments in ways that significantly transform the earth's ecosystems. Recent research suggests that such niche-constructing behaviors are not passive human responses to environmental variation, but instead should be seen as active and intentional management of the environment. Although such research is useful in highlighting the interactive dynamics between humans and their natural world, the niche-construction framework, as currently applied, fails to explain why people would decide to modify their environments in the first place. To help resolve this problem, we use a model of technological intensification to analyze the cost-benefit trade-offs associated with niche construction as a form of patch investment. We use this model to assess the costs and benefits of three paradigmatic cases of intentional niche construction in Western North America: the application of fire in acorn groves, the manufacture of fishing weirs, and the adoption of maize agriculture. Intensification models predict that investing in patch modification (niche construction) only provides a net benefit when the amount of resources needed crosses a critical threshold that makes the initial investment worthwhile. From this, it follows that low-cost investments, such as burning in oak groves, should be quite common, while more costly investments, such as maize agriculture, should be less common and depend on the alternatives available in the local environment. We examine how patterns of mobility, risk management, territoriality, and private property also co-evolve with the costs and benefits of niche construction. This approach illustrates that explaining niche-constructing behavior requires understanding the economic trade-offs involved in patch investment. Integrating concepts from niche construction and technological intensification models within a behavioral ecological framework provides insights into the coevolution and active feedback between adaptive behaviors and

  5. The vasculature as a neural stem cell niche.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Otsuki, Leo; Brand, Andrea H

    2017-11-01

    Neural stem cells (NSCs) are multipotent, self-renewing progenitors that generate progeny that differentiate into neurons and glia. NSCs in the adult mammalian brain are generally quiescent. Environmental stimuli such as learning or exercise can activate quiescent NSCs, inducing them to proliferate and produce new neurons and glia. How are these behaviours coordinated? The neurovasculature, the circulatory system of the brain, is a key component of the NSC microenvironment, or 'niche'. Instructive signals from the neurovasculature direct NSC quiescence, proliferation, self-renewal and differentiation. During ageing, a breakdown in the niche accompanies NSC dysfunction and cognitive decline. There is much interest in reversing these changes and enhancing NSC activity by targeting the neurovasculature therapeutically. Here we discuss principles of neurovasculature-NSC crosstalk, and the implications for the design of NSC-based therapies. We also consider the emerging contributions to this field of the model organism Drosophila melanogaster. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. Modeling species’ realized climatic niche space and predicting their response to global warming for several western forest species with small geographic distributions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marcus V. Warwell; Gerald E. Rehfeldt; Nicholas L. Crookston

    2010-01-01

    The Random Forests multiple regression tree was used to develop an empirically based bioclimatic model of the presence-absence of species occupying small geographic distributions in western North America. The species assessed were subalpine larch (Larix lyallii), smooth Arizona cypress (Cupressus arizonica ssp. glabra...

  7. Incorporating Anthropogenic Influences into Fire Probability Models: Effects of Human Activity and Climate Change on Fire Activity in California.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mann, Michael L; Batllori, Enric; Moritz, Max A; Waller, Eric K; Berck, Peter; Flint, Alan L; Flint, Lorraine E; Dolfi, Emmalee

    2016-01-01

    The costly interactions between humans and wildfires throughout California demonstrate the need to understand the relationships between them, especially in the face of a changing climate and expanding human communities. Although a number of statistical and process-based wildfire models exist for California, there is enormous uncertainty about the location and number of future fires, with previously published estimates of increases ranging from nine to fifty-three percent by the end of the century. Our goal is to assess the role of climate and anthropogenic influences on the state's fire regimes from 1975 to 2050. We develop an empirical model that integrates estimates of biophysical indicators relevant to plant communities and anthropogenic influences at each forecast time step. Historically, we find that anthropogenic influences account for up to fifty percent of explanatory power in the model. We also find that the total area burned is likely to increase, with burned area expected to increase by 2.2 and 5.0 percent by 2050 under climatic bookends (PCM and GFDL climate models, respectively). Our two climate models show considerable agreement, but due to potential shifts in rainfall patterns, substantial uncertainty remains for the semiarid inland deserts and coastal areas of the south. Given the strength of human-related variables in some regions, however, it is clear that comprehensive projections of future fire activity should include both anthropogenic and biophysical influences. Previous findings of substantially increased numbers of fires and burned area for California may be tied to omitted variable bias from the exclusion of human influences. The omission of anthropogenic variables in our model would overstate the importance of climatic ones by at least 24%. As such, the failure to include anthropogenic effects in many models likely overstates the response of wildfire to climatic change.

  8. Incorporating Anthropogenic Influences into Fire Probability Models: Effects of Human Activity and Climate Change on Fire Activity in California.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael L Mann

    Full Text Available The costly interactions between humans and wildfires throughout California demonstrate the need to understand the relationships between them, especially in the face of a changing climate and expanding human communities. Although a number of statistical and process-based wildfire models exist for California, there is enormous uncertainty about the location and number of future fires, with previously published estimates of increases ranging from nine to fifty-three percent by the end of the century. Our goal is to assess the role of climate and anthropogenic influences on the state's fire regimes from 1975 to 2050. We develop an empirical model that integrates estimates of biophysical indicators relevant to plant communities and anthropogenic influences at each forecast time step. Historically, we find that anthropogenic influences account for up to fifty percent of explanatory power in the model. We also find that the total area burned is likely to increase, with burned area expected to increase by 2.2 and 5.0 percent by 2050 under climatic bookends (PCM and GFDL climate models, respectively. Our two climate models show considerable agreement, but due to potential shifts in rainfall patterns, substantial uncertainty remains for the semiarid inland deserts and coastal areas of the south. Given the strength of human-related variables in some regions, however, it is clear that comprehensive projections of future fire activity should include both anthropogenic and biophysical influences. Previous findings of substantially increased numbers of fires and burned area for California may be tied to omitted variable bias from the exclusion of human influences. The omission of anthropogenic variables in our model would overstate the importance of climatic ones by at least 24%. As such, the failure to include anthropogenic effects in many models likely overstates the response of wildfire to climatic change.

  9. Biodiversity influences plant productivity through niche-efficiency.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liang, Jingjing; Zhou, Mo; Tobin, Patrick C; McGuire, A David; Reich, Peter B

    2015-05-05

    The loss of biodiversity is threatening ecosystem productivity and services worldwide, spurring efforts to quantify its effects on the functioning of natural ecosystems. Previous research has focused on the positive role of biodiversity on resource acquisition (i.e., niche complementarity), but a lack of study on resource utilization efficiency, a link between resource and productivity, has rendered it difficult to quantify the biodiversity-ecosystem functioning relationship. Here we demonstrate that biodiversity loss reduces plant productivity, other things held constant, through theory, empirical evidence, and simulations under gradually relaxed assumptions. We developed a theoretical model named niche-efficiency to integrate niche complementarity and a heretofore-ignored mechanism of diminishing marginal productivity in quantifying the effects of biodiversity loss on plant productivity. Based on niche-efficiency, we created a relative productivity metric and a productivity impact index (PII) to assist in biological conservation and resource management. Relative productivity provides a standardized measure of the influence of biodiversity on individual productivity, and PII is a functionally based taxonomic index to assess individual species' inherent value in maintaining current ecosystem productivity. Empirical evidence from the Alaska boreal forest suggests that every 1% reduction in overall plant diversity could render an average of 0.23% decline in individual tree productivity. Out of the 283 plant species of the region, we found that large woody plants generally have greater PII values than other species. This theoretical model would facilitate the integration of biological conservation in the international campaign against several pressing global issues involving energy use, climate change, and poverty.

  10. Prediction of the niche effect for single flat panels with or without attached sound absorbing materials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sgard, Franck; Atalla, Noureddine; Nélisse, Hugues

    2015-01-01

    The sound transmission loss (STL) of a test sample measured in sound transmission facilities is affected by the opening in which it is located. This is called the niche effect. This paper uses a modal approach to study the STL of a rectangular plate with or without an attached porous material located inside a box-shaped niche. The porous material is modeled as a limp equivalent fluid. The proposed model is validated by comparison with finite element/boundary element computations. Using a condensation of the pressure fields in the niche, the niche effect is interpreted in terms of a modification of the modal blocked pressure fields acting on the panel induced by the front cavity and by a modification of the radiation efficiency of the panel modes due to the presence of the back cavity. The modal approach is then used to investigate the impact of (1) the presence of a porous material attached to the panel on the niche effect and (2) the niche effect on the assessment of the porous material insertion loss. A simplified model for the porous material based on a transfer matrix approach is also proposed to predict the STL of the system and its validity is discussed.

  11. Pseudomonas biofilm matrix composition and niche biology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mann, Ethan E.; Wozniak, Daniel J.

    2014-01-01

    Biofilms are a predominant form of growth for bacteria in the environment and in the clinic. Critical for biofilm development are adherence, proliferation, and dispersion phases. Each of these stages includes reinforcement by, or modulation of, the extracellular matrix. Pseudomonas aeruginosa has been a model organism for the study of biofilm formation. Additionally, other Pseudomonas species utilize biofilm formation during plant colonization and environmental persistence. Pseudomonads produce several biofilm matrix molecules, including polysaccharides, nucleic acids, and proteins. Accessory matrix components shown to aid biofilm formation and adaptability under varying conditions are also produced by pseudomonads. Adaptation facilitated by biofilm formation allows for selection of genetic variants with unique and distinguishable colony morphology. Examples include rugose small-colony variants and wrinkly spreaders (WS), which over produce Psl/Pel or cellulose, respectively, and mucoid bacteria that over produce alginate. The well-documented emergence of these variants suggests that pseudomonads take advantage of matrix-building subpopulations conferring specific benefits for the entire population. This review will focus on various polysaccharides as well as additional Pseudomonas biofilm matrix components. Discussions will center on structure–function relationships, regulation, and the role of individual matrix molecules in niche biology. PMID:22212072

  12. Why developmental niche construction is not selective niche construction: and why it matters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stotz, Karola

    2017-10-06

    In the last decade, niche construction has been heralded as the neglected process in evolution. But niche construction is just one way in which the organism's interaction with and construction of the environment can have potential evolutionary significance. The constructed environment does not just select for , it also produces new variation. Nearly 3 decades ago, and in parallel with Odling-Smee's article 'Niche-constructing phenotypes', West and King introduced the 'ontogenetic niche' to give the phenomena of exo genetic inheritance a formal name. Since then, a range of fields in the life sciences and medicine has amassed evidence that parents influence their offspring by means other than DNA (parental effects), and proposed mechanisms for how heritable variation can be environmentally induced and developmentally regulated. The concept of 'developmental niche construction' (DNC) elucidates how a diverse range of mechanisms contributes to the transgenerational transfer of developmental resources. My most central of claims is that whereas the selective niche of niche construction theory is primarily used to explain the active role of the organism in its selective environment, DNC is meant to indicate the active role of the organism in its developmental environment. The paper highlights the differences between the construction of the selective and the developmental niche, and explores the overall significance of DNC for evolutionary theory.

  13. Remote Sensing-Based Detection and Spatial Pattern Analysis for Geo-Ecological Niche Modeling of Tillandsia SPP. In the Atacama, Chile

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolf, N.; Siegmund, A.; del Río, C.; Osses, P.; García, J. L.

    2016-06-01

    In the coastal Atacama Desert in Northern Chile plant growth is constrained to so-called `fog oases' dominated by monospecific stands of the genus Tillandsia. Adapted to the hyperarid environmental conditions, these plants specialize on the foliar uptake of fog as main water and nutrient source. It is this characteristic that leads to distinctive macro- and micro-scale distribution patterns, reflecting complex geo-ecological gradients, mainly affected by the spatiotemporal occurrence of coastal fog respectively the South Pacific Stratocumulus clouds reaching inlands. The current work employs remote sensing, machine learning and spatial pattern/GIS analysis techniques to acquire detailed information on the presence and state of Tillandsia spp. in the Tarapacá region as a base to better understand the bioclimatic and topographic constraints determining the distribution patterns of Tillandsia spp. Spatial and spectral predictors extracted from WorldView-3 satellite data are used to map present Tillandsia vegetation in the Tarapaca region. Regression models on Vegetation Cover Fraction (VCF) are generated combining satellite-based as well as topographic variables and using aggregated high spatial resolution information on vegetation cover derived from UAV flight campaigns as a reference. The results are a first step towards mapping and modelling the topographic as well as bioclimatic factors explaining the spatial distribution patterns of Tillandsia fog oases in the Atacama, Chile.

  14. REMOTE SENSING-BASED DETECTION AND SPATIAL PATTERN ANALYSIS FOR GEO-ECOLOGICAL NICHE MODELING OF TILLANDSIA SPP. IN THE ATACAMA, CHILE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Wolf

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available In the coastal Atacama Desert in Northern Chile plant growth is constrained to so-called ‘fog oases’ dominated by monospecific stands of the genus Tillandsia. Adapted to the hyperarid environmental conditions, these plants specialize on the foliar uptake of fog as main water and nutrient source. It is this characteristic that leads to distinctive macro- and micro-scale distribution patterns, reflecting complex geo-ecological gradients, mainly affected by the spatiotemporal occurrence of coastal fog respectively the South Pacific Stratocumulus clouds reaching inlands. The current work employs remote sensing, machine learning and spatial pattern/GIS analysis techniques to acquire detailed information on the presence and state of Tillandsia spp. in the Tarapacá region as a base to better understand the bioclimatic and topographic constraints determining the distribution patterns of Tillandsia spp. Spatial and spectral predictors extracted from WorldView-3 satellite data are used to map present Tillandsia vegetation in the Tarapaca region. Regression models on Vegetation Cover Fraction (VCF are generated combining satellite-based as well as topographic variables and using aggregated high spatial resolution information on vegetation cover derived from UAV flight campaigns as a reference. The results are a first step towards mapping and modelling the topographic as well as bioclimatic factors explaining the spatial distribution patterns of Tillandsia fog oases in the Atacama, Chile.

  15. Astrocitary niches in human adult medulla oblongata.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rusu, Mugurel Constantin; Dermengiu, Dan; Loreto, Carla; Motoc, Andrei Gheorghe Marius; Pop, Elena

    2013-04-01

    Astrocytes are considered as neuromodulators of the CNS. Whereas experimental studies on astrocitary functions are gaining importance, the anatomy of the astrocitary niches in the human CNS has been overlooked. The study was performed on the brainstem of 10 adult cadavers. We aimed to determine astrocitary niches in the human medulla oblongata using immunohistochemical labeling with vimentin and also CD34 immunostaining to accurately diagnose associated microvessels. Niches rich in astrocytes were identified as follows: (a) the superficial layer of astrocytes, ventral and ventrolateral, in the rostral medulla oblongata; (b) the median raphe; (c) medullary nuclei: arcuate nucleus, area postrema, nucleus of the solitary tract; (d) the subependymal zone (SEZ, caudal medulla) and subventricular zone (SVZ, rostral medulla). Astrocytes were scarce in the ventrolateral medulla, and mostly present within the pyramidal tract and the olivary nucleus. Apart from the SEZ and SVZ, the brainstem niches of astrocytes mostly overlap those regions known to perform roles as central respiratory chemoreceptors. The astrocytes of the SEZ and SVZ, which are known as stem cell niches, are related to an increased microvascular density. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

  16. Stochastic dynamics for two biological species and ecological niches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruziska, Flávia M.; Arashiro, Everaldo; Tomé, Tânia

    2018-01-01

    We consider an ecological system in which two species interact with two niches. To this end we introduce a stochastic model with four states. Our analysis is founded in three approaches: Monte Carlo simulations of the model on a square lattice, mean-field approximation, and birth and death master equation. From this last approach we obtain a description in terms of Langevin equations which show in an explicit way the role of noise in population biology. We focus mainly on the description of time oscillations of the species population and the alternating dominance between them. The model treated here may provide insights on these properties.

  17. The niche construction of cultural complexity: interactions between innovations, population size and the environment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fogarty, Laurel; Creanza, Nicole

    2017-12-05

    Niche construction is a process through which organisms alter their environments and, in doing so, influence or change the selective pressures to which they are subject. 'Cultural niche construction' refers specifically to the effect of cultural traits on the selective environments of other biological or cultural traits and may be especially important in human evolution. In addition, the relationship between population size and cultural accumulation has been the subject of extensive debate, in part because anthropological studies have demonstrated a significant association between population size and toolkit complexity in only a subset of studied cultures. Here, we review the role of cultural innovation in constructing human evolutionary niches and introduce a new model to describe the accumulation of human cultural traits that incorporates the effects of cultural niche construction. We consider the results of this model in light of available data on human toolkit sizes across populations to help elucidate the important differences between food-gathering societies and food-producing societies, in which niche construction may be a more potent force. These results support the idea that a population's relationship with its environment, represented here by cultural niche construction, should be considered alongside population size in studies of cultural complexity.This article is part of the themed issue 'Process and pattern in innovations from cells to societies'. © 2017 The Author(s).

  18. Comparison of Hematopoietic and Spermatogonial Stem Cell Niches from the Regenerative Medicine Aspect.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Köse, Sevil; Yersal, Nilgün; Önen, Selin; Korkusuz, Petek

    2018-06-08

    Recent advances require a dual evaluation of germ and somatic stem cell niches with a regenerative medicine perspective. For a better point of view of the niche concept, it is needed to compare the microenvironments of those niches in respect to several components. The cellular environment of spermatogonial stem cells' niche consists of Sertoli cells, Leydig cells, vascular endothelial cells, epididymal fat cells, peritubular myoid cells while hematopoietic stem cells have mesenchymal stem cells, osteoblasts, osteoclasts, megacaryocytes, macrophages, vascular endothelial cells, pericytes and adipocytes in their microenvironment. Not only those cells', but also the effect of the other factors such as hormones, growth factors, chemokines, cytokines, extracellular matrix components, biomechanical forces (like shear stress, tension or compression) and physical environmental elements such as temperature, oxygen level and pH will be clarified during the chapter. Because it is known that the microenvironment has an important role in the stem cell homeostasis and disease conditions, it is crucial to understand the details of the microenvironment and to be able to compare the niche concepts of the different types of stem cells from each other, for the regenerative interventions. Indeed, the purpose of this chapter is to point out the usage of niche engineering within the further studies in the regenerative medicine field. Decellularized, synthetic or non-synthetic scaffolds may help to mimic the stem cell niche. However, the shared or different characteristics of germ and somatic stem cell microenvironments are necessary to constitute a proper niche model. When considered from this aspect, it is possible to produce some strategies on the personalized medicine by using those artificial models of stem cell microenvironment.

  19. Finite source modelling of magmatic unrest in Socorro, New Mexico, and Long Valley, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fialko, Yuri; Simons, Mark; Khazan, Yakov

    2001-07-01

    We investigate surface deformation associated with currently active crustal magma bodies in Socorro, New Mexico, and Long Valley, California, USA. We invert available geodetic data from these locations to constrain the overall geometry and dynamics of the inferred deformation sources at depth. Our best-fitting model for the Socorro magma body is a sill with a depth of 19km, an effective diameter of 70km and a rate of increase in the excess magma pressure of 0.6kPayr-1. We show that the corresponding volumetric inflation rate is ~6×10-3km3yr-1, which is considerably less than previously suggested. The measured inflation rate of the Socorro magma body may result from a steady influx of magma from a deep source, or a volume increase associated with melting of the magma chamber roof (i.e. crustal anatexis). In the latter case, the most recent major injection of mantle-derived melts into the middle crust beneath Socorro may have occurred within the last several tens to several hundreds of years. The Synthetic Interferometric Aperture Radar (InSAR) data collected in the area of the Long Valley caldera, CA, between June 1996 and July 1998 reveal an intracaldera uplift with a maximum amplitude of ~11cm and a volume of 3.5×10-2km3. Modelling of the InSAR data suggests that the observed deformation might be due to either a sill-like magma body at a depth of ~12km or a pluton-like magma body at a depth of ~8km beneath the resurgent dome. Assuming that the caldera fill deforms as an isotropic linear elastic solid, a joint inversion of the InSAR data and two-colour laser geodimeter data (which provide independent constraints on horizontal displacements at the surface) suggests that the inferred magma chamber is a steeply dipping prolate spheroid with a depth of 7-9km and an aspect ratio in excess of 2:1. Our results highlight the need for large radar look angles and multiple look directions in future InSAR missions.

  20. A cost-benefit model comparing the California Milk Cell Test and Milk Electrical Resistance Test.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petzer, Inge-Marie; Karzis, Joanne; Meyer, Isabel A; van der Schans, Theodorus J

    2013-04-24

    The indirect effects of mastitis treatment are often overlooked in cost-benefit analyses, but it may be beneficial for the dairy industry to consider them. The cost of mastitis treatment may increase when the duration of intra-mammary infections are prolonged due to misdiagnosis of host-adapted mastitis. Laboratory diagnosis of mastitis can be costly and time consuming, therefore cow-side tests such as the California Milk Cell Test (CMCT) and Milk Electrical Resistance (MER) need to be utilised to their full potential. The aim of this study was to determine the relative benefit of using these two tests separately and in parallel. This was done using a partial-budget analysis and a cost-benefit model to estimate the benefits and costs of each respective test and the parallel combination thereof. Quarter milk samples (n= 1860) were taken from eight different dairy herds in South Africa. Milk samples were evaluated by means of the CMCT, hand-held MER meter and cyto-microbiological laboratory analysis. After determining the most appropriate cut-off points for the two cow-side tests, the sensitivity and specificity of the CMCT (Se= 1.00, Sp= 0.66), MER (Se= 0.92, Sp= 0.62) and the tests done in parallel (Se= 1.00, Sp= 0.87) were calculated. The input data that were used for partial-budget analysis and in the cost-benefit model were based on South African figures at the time of the study, and on literature. The total estimated financial benefit of correct diagnosis of host-adapted mastitis per cow for the CMCT, MER and the tests done in parallel was R898.73, R518.70 and R1064.67 respectively. This involved taking the expected benefit of a correct test result per cow, the expected cost of an error per cow and the cost of the test into account. The CMCT was shown to be 11%more beneficial than the MER test, whilst using the tests in parallel was shown to be the most beneficial method for evaluating the mastitis-control programme. Therefore, it is recommended that the

  1. A cost-benefit model comparing the California Milk Cell Test and Milk Electrical Resistance Test

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Inge-Marie Petzer

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available The indirect effects of mastitis treatment are often overlooked in cost-benefit analyses, but it may be beneficial for the dairy industry to consider them. The cost of mastitis treatment may increase when the duration of intra-mammary infections are prolonged due to misdiagnosis of host-adapted mastitis. Laboratory diagnosis of mastitis can be costly and time consuming, therefore cow-side tests such as the California Milk Cell Test (CMCT and Milk Electrical Resistance (MER need to be utilised to their full potential. The aim of this study was to determine the relative benefit of using these two tests separately and in parallel. This was done using a partial-budget analysis and a cost-benefit model to estimate the benefits and costs of each respective test and the parallel combination thereof. Quarter milk samples (n= 1860 were taken from eight different dairy herds in South Africa. Milk samples were evaluated by means of the CMCT, hand-held MER meter and cyto-microbiological laboratory analysis. After determining the most appropriate cut-off points for the two cow-side tests, the sensitivity and specificity of the CMCT (Se= 1.00, Sp= 0.66, MER (Se= 0.92, Sp= 0.62 and the tests done in parallel (Se= 1.00, Sp= 0.87 were calculated. The input data that were used for partial-budget analysis and in the cost-benefit model were based on South African figures at the time of the study, and on literature. The total estimated financial benefit of correct diagnosis of host-adapted mastitis per cow for the CMCT, MER and the tests done in parallel was R898.73, R518.70 and R1064.67 respectively. This involved taking the expected benefit of a correct test result per cow, the expected cost of an error per cow and the cost of the test into account. The CMCT was shown to be 11%more beneficial than the MER test, whilst using the tests in parallel was shown to be the most beneficial method for evaluating the mastitis-control programme. Therefore

  2. Large, high-intensity fire events in Southern California shrublands: Debunking the fine-grain age patch model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keeley, J.E.; Zedler, P.H.

    2009-01-01

    We evaluate the fine-grain age patch model of fire regimes in southern California shrublands. Proponents contend that the historical condition was characterized by frequent small to moderate size, slow-moving smoldering fires, and that this regime has been disrupted by fire suppression activities that have caused unnatural fuel accumulation and anomalously large and catastrophic wildfires. A review of more than 100 19th-century newspaper reports reveals that large, high-intensity wildfires predate modern fire suppression policy, and extensive newspaper coverage plus first-hand accounts support the conclusion that the 1889 Santiago Canyon Fire was the largest fire in California history. Proponents of the fine-grain age patch model contend that even the very earliest 20th-century fires were the result of fire suppression disrupting natural fuel structure. We tested that hypothesis and found that, within the fire perimeters of two of the largest early fire events in 1919 and 1932, prior fire suppression activities were insufficient to have altered the natural fuel structure. Over the last 130 years there has been no significant change in the incidence of large fires greater than 10000 ha, consistent with the conclusion that fire suppression activities are not the cause of these fire events. Eight megafires (???50 000 ha) are recorded for the region, and half have occurred in the last five years. These burned through a mosaic of age classes, which raises doubts that accumulation of old age classes explains these events. Extreme drought is a plausible explanation for this recent rash of such events, and it is hypothesized that these are due to droughts that led to increased dead fine fuels that promoted the incidence of firebrands and spot fires. A major shortcoming of the fine-grain age patch model is that it requires age-dependent flammability of shrubland fuels, but seral stage chaparral is dominated by short-lived species that create a dense surface layer of fine

  3. Average niche breadths of species in lake macrophyte communities respond to ecological gradients variably in four regions on two continents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alahuhta, Janne; Virtala, Antti; Hjort, Jan; Ecke, Frauke; Johnson, Lucinda B; Sass, Laura; Heino, Jani

    2017-05-01

    Different species' niche breadths in relation to ecological gradients are infrequently examined within the same study and, moreover, species niche breadths have rarely been averaged to account for variation in entire ecological communities. We investigated how average environmental niche breadths (climate, water quality and climate-water quality niches) in aquatic macrophyte communities are related to ecological gradients (latitude, longitude, altitude, species richness and lake area) among four distinct regions (Finland, Sweden and US states of Minnesota and Wisconsin) on two continents. We found that correlations between the three different measures of average niche breadths and ecological gradients varied considerably among the study regions, with average climate and average water quality niche breadth models often showing opposite trends. However, consistent patterns were also found, such as widening of average climate niche breadths and narrowing of average water quality niche breadths of aquatic macrophytes along increasing latitudinal and altitudinal gradients. This result suggests that macrophyte species are generalists in relation to temperature variations at higher latitudes and altitudes, whereas species in southern, lowland lakes are more specialised. In contrast, aquatic macrophytes growing in more southern nutrient-rich lakes were generalists in relation to water quality, while specialist species are adapted to low-productivity conditions and are found in highland lakes. Our results emphasise that species niche breadths should not be studied using only coarse-scale data of species distributions and corresponding environmental conditions, but that investigations on different kinds of niche breadths (e.g., climate vs. local niches) also require finer resolution data at broad spatial extents.

  4. Phylogeographic investigation and ecological niche modelling of the endemic frog species Nanorana pleskei revealed multiple refugia in the eastern Tibetan Plateau.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Bin; Xie, Feng; Li, Jiannan; Wang, Gang; Li, Cheng; Jiang, Jianping

    2017-01-01

    The largest plateau Tibetan Plateau supplied an excellent opportunity to investigate the influence of the Pleistocene events on the high-elevation species. To test for the alternative hypotheses of Pleistocene glacial refugia, we used partial sequences of two mitochondrial genes and one nuclear gene to examine the phylogeographic patterns of the endemic frog species Nanorana pleskei across its known range in the eastern Tibetan Plateau, and conducted species distribution modelling (SDM) to explore changes of its distribution range through current and paleo periods. In all data sets, the species was divided into lineage north occupying open plateau platform and lineage south colonizing the mountainous plateau. The divergence of two major clades was estimated at the early Pleistocene. In mtDNA, lineage north contained northeastern and northwestern sublineages, and lineage south had two overlapping-distributed sublineages. Different lineages possessed distinct demographic characteristics, i.e., subdivision in the northeastern sublineage, historical bottleneck effects and recent expansions in the northwestern sublineage and the southeastern sublineage. SDMs depicted that stable suitable habitats had existed in the upper-middle streams of the Yellow River, Dadu River, Jinsha River and Yalong River. These regions were also recognized as the ancestral areas of different lineages. In conclusion, Nanorana pleskei lineages have probably experienced long-term separations. Stable suitable habitats existing in upper-middle streams of major rivers on the eastern Tibetan Plateau and distinct demographic dynamics of different lineages indicated that the lineages possessed independent evolutionary processes in multiple glacial refugia. The findings verified the profound effects of Pleistocene climatic fluctuations on the plateau endemic species.

  5. Distribution survey, ecological niche modelling and conservation assessment of the Peruvian Night Monkey: Aotus Miconax Thomas, 1927 (Mammalia: Primates: Aotidae in north-eastern Peru, with notes on the distributions of Aotus spp. Gray, 1870

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sam Shanee

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Aotus miconax is endemic to Peru and remains one of the least studied of all Neotropical primate taxa.  It has an altitudinally restricted distribution and is limited to areas of premontane and montane cloud forest in the countries north.  Deforestation in the area is the highest in the country.  In many areas deforestation has fragmented remnant populations of A. miconax to isolated forest fragments with high hunting pressure.  Our aim was to gather information on the current distribution of A. miconax and other Aotus species in northeastern Peru.  Through field surveys we found evidence of the presence of Aotus spp. at 44 localities in the departments of Amazonas, Huánuco, La Libertad and San Martin, including 23 visual observations and four aural detections and from secondary evidence at a further 17 sites.  Aotus miconax was found at sites between 1200–3100 m.  Combining GIS and maximum entropy ecological niche modelling we predicted the probable original distribution of A. miconax.  We also evaluated the current area of occupancy, level of fragmentation and anthropogenic threats faced by this species.  The current area of occupancy of A. miconax is much reduced and anthropogenic threats to this species are severe and increasing.  The current IUCN Red List status (VU underestimates actual habitat loss and disturbance.  Sympatric species which suffer from similar levels of hunting and habitat loss are considered ‘Critically Endangered’ (IUCN 2011 and based on our estimate of ~60% habitat loss, with much of the remaining habitat highly fragmented; we would like to suggest that A. miconax be classified as Endangered.

  6. Incorporating anthropogenic influences into fire probability models: Effects of development and climate change on fire activity in California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mann, M.; Moritz, M.; Batllori, E.; Waller, E.; Krawchuk, M.; Berck, P.

    2014-12-01

    The costly interactions between humans and natural fire regimes throughout California demonstrate the need to understand the uncertainties surrounding wildfire, especially in the face of a changing climate and expanding human communities. Although a number of statistical and process-based wildfire models exist for California, there is enormous uncertainty about the location and number of future fires. Models estimate an increase in fire occurrence between nine and fifty-three percent by the end of the century. Our goal is to assess the role of uncertainty in climate and anthropogenic influences on the state's fire regime from 2000-2050. We develop an empirical model that integrates novel information about the distribution and characteristics of future plant communities without assuming a particular distribution, and improve on previous efforts by integrating dynamic estimates of population density at each forecast time step. Historically, we find that anthropogenic influences account for up to fifty percent of the total fire count, and that further housing development will incite or suppress additional fires according to their intensity. We also find that the total area burned is likely to increase but at a slower than historical rate. Previous findings of substantially increased numbers of fires may be tied to the assumption of static fuel loadings, and the use of proxy variables not relevant to plant community distributions. We also find considerable agreement between GFDL and PCM model A2 runs, with decreasing fire counts expected only in areas of coastal influence below San Francisco and above Los Angeles. Due to potential shifts in rainfall patterns, substantial uncertainty remains for the semiarid deserts of the inland south. The broad shifts of wildfire between California's climatic regions forecast in this study point to dramatic shifts in the pressures plant and human communities will face by midcentury. The information provided by this study reduces the

  7. [Mesenchymal stroma cells and their niche].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schneider, R K

    2013-11-01

    Stem cells reside in a highly specialized, complex microenvironment that is known as the stem cell niche. The stem cell niche can be described as an anatomically defined space where the stem cell is localized and nourished and stem cell quiescence, proliferation and differentiation are maintained. Tissue engineering aims to imitate the stem cell niche to (I) induce a directed differentiation, (II) maintain the self-renewal capacity or (III) find a regulated balance between self-renewal and differentiation. Mesenchymal stem or stromal cells (MSC) can differentiate in three-dimensional collagen gels into functional osteoblasts when subjected to a phosphate-rich cultivation medium. Furthermore, they acquire a prosynthetic, matrix remodeling, contractile phenotype. Medial artery calcification in patients with chronic kidney disease also proceeds through intramembranous ossification resulting from osteoblast-induced calcification of the collagen extracellular matrix. Thus, the influence of uremic cultivation conditions as a pathophysiological stimulus on MSC and endothelial cells was analyzed with special regards to matrix remodeling, vascularization and calcification. The results showed that BMP-2/4 mediated MSC (mal)differentiation into osteoblasts with acquired matrix remodeling phenotype and loss of proangiogenic capacity. These studies have led to the conclusion that uremia has detrimental effects on the stem cell niche and promotes the continuous calcification by osteogenic (mal)differentiation. In summary, recent studies have shown the conducting and regulating effect of the stem cell niche under physiological conditions that can be applied and mimicked for tissue engineering applications. However, under pathological conditions the stem cell niche can have detrimental effects on stem cell function and can promote disease progression.

  8. A practioner's view on Strategic Niche Management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mourik, R.; Raven, R.P.J.M.

    2006-11-01

    Strategic Niche Management (SNM) is a tool to support the societal introduction of radical sustainable innovations. However, it has been mainly used in retrospective to analyse historical case studies. This report discusses SNM from a practioner's perspective with the main aim to articulate questions that should be addressed for translating SNM from an ex-post to an ex-ante tool. The main conclusion is that an SNM tool should focus on the level of 'niches' rather than single projects, i.e. SNM should aim to support (program) managers who aim at orchestrating the interaction between multiple experiments

  9. The making of an immigrant niche.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waldinger, R

    1994-01-01

    "This article speaks to the conceptual and methodological issues in research on the making of an immigrant niche through a case study of immigrant professionals in New York City government." The author argues that "the growth of this immigrant niche resulted from changes in the relative supply of native workers and in the structure of employment, which opened the bureaucracy to immigrants and reduced native/immigrant competition. These shifts opened hiring portals; given the advantages of network hiring for workers and managers, and an immigrant propensity for government employment, network recruitment led to a rapid buildup in immigrant ranks." excerpt

  10. Evolution is a cooperative process: the biodiversity-related niches differentiation theory (BNDT) can explain why.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gatti, Roberto Cazzolla

    2011-01-01

    A. McFayden and G.E. Hutchinson defined a niche as a multidimensional space or hypervolume within the environment that allows an individual or a species to survive, we consider niches as a fundamental ecological variable that regulate species' composition and relation in ecosystems. Successively the niche concept has been associated to the genetic term "phenotype" by MacArthurstressing the importance on what a species or a genome can show outside, either in the environmental functions or in body characteristics. Several indexes have been developed to evaluate the grade of overlapping and similarities of species' niches, even utilizing the theory of information. However, which are the factors that determine the number of species that can coexist in a determinate environment and why a generalist species do not compete until the exclusion of the remaining species to maximize its fitness, is still quite unknown. Moreover, there are few studies and theories that clearly explain why the number of niches is so variable through ecosystems and how can several species live in the same basal niche, intended in a comprehensive sense as the range of basic conditions (temperature, humidity, food-guild, etc.). Here I show that the number of niches in an ecosystem depends on the number of species present in a particular moment and that the species themselves allow the enhancement of niches in terms of space and number. I found that using a three-dimensional model as hypervolume and testing the theory on a Mediterranean, temperate and tropical forest ecosystem it is possible to demonstrate that each species plays a fundamental role in facilitating the colonization by other species by simply modifying the environment and exponentially increasing the available niches' space and number. I resumed these hypothesis, after some preliminary empiric tests, in the Biodiversity-related Niches Differentiation Theory (BNDT), stressing with these definition that the process of niches

  11. Classification and comparison of niche services for developing strategy of medical tourism in Asian countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Hung-chi; Kuo, Hsin-chih; Chung, Kuo-Piao; Chang, Sophia; Su, Syi; Yang, Ming-chin

    2010-01-01

    Medical tourism is a new trend in medical service. It is booming not only in Asian countries but also in European and South American countries. Worldwide competition of medical service is expected in the future, and niche service will be a "trademark" for the promotion of global medicine. Niche service also functions for market segmentation. Niche services are usually surgical procedures. A study was carried out to compare different strategies for developing medical tourism in Asian countries. The role of a niche service is evaluated in the initiation and further development of medical tourism for individual countries. From this study, a general classification was proposed in terms of treatment procedures. It can be used as a useful guideline for additional studies in medical tourism. Niche service plays the following roles in the development of medical tourism: (1) It attracts attention in the mass media and helps in subsequent promotion of business, (2) it exerts pressure on the hospital, which must improve the quality of health care provided in treating foreign patients, especially the niche services, and (3) it is a tool for setting up the business model. E-Da Hospital is an example for developing medical tourism in Taiwan. A side effect is that niche service brings additional foreign patients, which will contribute to the benefit of the hospital, but this leaves less room for treating domestic patients. A niche service is a means of introduction for entry into the market of medical tourism. How to create a successful story is important for the development of a niche service. When a good reputation has been established, the information provided on the Internet can last for a long time and can spread internationally to form a distinguished mark for further development. Niche services can be classified into 3 categories: (1) Low-risk procedures with large price differences and long stay after retirement; (2) high-risk procedures with less of a price difference

  12. Groundwater simulation and management models for the upper Klamath Basin, Oregon and California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gannett, Marshall W.; Wagner, Brian J.; Lite, Kenneth E.

    2012-01-01

    The upper Klamath Basin encompasses about 8,000 square miles, extending from the Cascade Range east to the Basin and Range geologic province in south-central Oregon and northern California. The geography of the basin is dominated by forested volcanic uplands separated by broad interior basins. Most of the interior basins once held broad shallow lakes and extensive wetlands, but most of these areas have been drained or otherwise modified and are now cultivated. Major parts of the interior basins are managed as wildlife refuges, primarily for migratory waterfowl. The permeable volcanic bedrock of the upper Klamath Basin hosts a substantial regional groundwater system that provides much of the flow to major streams and lakes that, in turn, provide water for wildlife habitat and are the principal source of irrigation water for the basin's agricultural economy. Increased allocation of surface water for endangered species in the past decade has resulted in increased groundwater pumping and growing interest in the use of groundwater for irrigation. The potential effects of increased groundwater pumping on groundwater levels and discharge to springs and streams has caused concern among groundwater users, wildlife and Tribal interests, and State and Federal resource managers. To provide information on the potential impacts of increased groundwater development and to aid in the development of a groundwater management strategy, the U.S. Geological Survey, in collaboration with the Oregon Water Resources Department and the Bureau of Reclamation, has developed a groundwater model that can simulate the response of the hydrologic system to these new stresses. The groundwater model was developed using the U.S. Geological Survey MODFLOW finite-difference modeling code and calibrated using inverse methods to transient conditions from 1989 through 2004 with quarterly stress periods. Groundwater recharge and agricultural and municipal pumping are specified for each stress period. All

  13. A comparison among observations and earthquake simulator results for the allcal2 California fault model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tullis, Terry. E.; Richards-Dinger, Keith B.; Barall, Michael; Dieterich, James H.; Field, Edward H.; Heien, Eric M.; Kellogg, Louise; Pollitz, Fred F.; Rundle, John B.; Sachs, Michael K.; Turcotte, Donald L.; Ward, Steven N.; Yikilmaz, M. Burak

    2012-01-01

    In order to understand earthquake hazards we would ideally have a statistical description of earthquakes for tens of thousands of years. Unfortunately the ∼100‐year instrumental, several 100‐year historical, and few 1000‐year paleoseismological records are woefully inadequate to provide a statistically significant record. Physics‐based earthquake simulators can generate arbitrarily long histories of earthquakes; thus they can provide a statistically meaningful history of simulated earthquakes. The question is, how realistic are these simulated histories? This purpose of this paper is to begin to answer that question. We compare the results between different simulators and with information that is known from the limited instrumental, historic, and paleoseismological data.As expected, the results from all the simulators show that the observational record is too short to properly represent the system behavior; therefore, although tests of the simulators against the limited observations are necessary, they are not a sufficient test of the simulators’ realism. The simulators appear to pass this necessary test. In addition, the physics‐based simulators show similar behavior even though there are large differences in the methodology. This suggests that they represent realistic behavior. Different assumptions concerning the constitutive properties of the faults do result in enhanced capabilities of some simulators. However, it appears that the similar behavior of the different simulators may result from the fault‐system geometry, slip rates, and assumed strength drops, along with the shared physics of stress transfer.This paper describes the results of running four earthquake simulators that are described elsewhere in this issue of Seismological Research Letters. The simulators ALLCAL (Ward, 2012), VIRTCAL (Sachs et al., 2012), RSQSim (Richards‐Dinger and Dieterich, 2012), and ViscoSim (Pollitz, 2012) were run on our most recent all‐California fault

  14. Niche conservatism of Eulophia alta, a trans-Atlantic orchid species

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marta Kolanowska

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available The genus Eulophia embraces over 230 species distributed through the tropical and subtropical Africa, Asia, Australia and the Americas. In Neotropics it is represented by a sole species – E. alta. The aim of the presented study was to evaluate the difference between ecological niches occupied by American and African populations of this species based on the ecological niche modeling. The similarity between the glacial and present niches occupied by E. alta was calculated and the factors limiting the species occurrence were identified. Areas of seasonal tropical forest, tropical savanna and woodland served as refugia for the studied species during last glacial maximum and they were more widespread in Neotropics than in Africa. No significant niche shift after last glacial maximum was observed. The distribution of E. alta in its whole range is restricted mainly by temperature seasonality. The differences in the niches occupied by African and Neotropical populations of E. alta suggest preglacial disjunction of the species range and independent adaptation of both groups. Despite the significant range disjunction of E. alta the species is characterized by relatively high degree of niche conservatism.

  15. A New Perspective on the Foraging Ecology of Apex Predators in the California Current: Results from a Fully Coupled Ecosystem Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fiechter, J.; Huckstadt, L. A.; Rose, K.; Costa, D. P.; Curchitser, E. N.; Hedstrom, K.; Edwards, C. A.; Moore, A. M.

    2016-02-01

    Results from a fully coupled end-to-end ecosystem model for the California Current Large Marine Ecosystem are used to describe the impact of environmental variability on the foraging ecology of its most abundant apex predator, California sea lions (Zalophus californianus). The ecosystem model consists of a biogeochemical submodel embedded in a regional ocean circulation submodel, and both coupled with a multi-species individual-based submodel for forage fish (sardine and anchovy) and California sea lions. For sea lions, bioenergetics and behavioral attributes are specified using available TOPP (Tagging Of Pacific Predators) data on their foraging patterns and diet in the California Current. Sardine and anchovy are explicitly included in the model as they represent important prey sources for California sea lions and exhibit significant interannual and decadal variability in population abundances. Output from a 20-year run (1989-2008) of the model demonstrates how different physical and biological processes control habitat utilization and foraging success of California sea lions on interannual time scales. A principal component analysis of sea lion foraging patterns indicates that the first mode of variability is alongshore and tied to sardine availability, while the second mode is cross-shore and associated with coastal upwelling intensity (a behavior consistent with male sea lion tracking data collected in 2004 vs. 2005). The results also illustrate how variability in environmental conditions and forage fish distribution affects sea lions feeding success. While specifically focusing on the foraging ecology of sea lions, our modeling framework has the ability to provide new and unique perspectives on trophic interactions in the California Current, or other regions where similar end-to-end ecosystem models may be implemented.

  16. Phylogenetic climatic niche conservatism and evolution of climatic suitability in Neotropical Angraecinae (Vandeae, Orchidaceae) and their closest African relatives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kolanowska, Marta; Grochocka, Elżbieta; Konowalik, Kamil

    2017-01-01

    In the present study we investigate the concept of phylogenetic niche conservatism (PNC) within the American species of angraecoid orchids ( Campylocentrum and Dendrophylax ) and their closest relatives in the Old World ( Angraecum ) using ecological niche modelling (ENM). The predicted niche occupancy profiles were matched with the outcomes of previous phylogenetic studies to reconstruct the evolution of climatic suitability within the orchid group studied and evaluate the role of niche differentiation in the speciation of Angraecinae. No correlation between preferred niches and taxonomic relationships within the orchid group studied was revealed. The climatic suitability of the majority of the species overlapped each other, either fully or partially. This pattern is also present in the species of other orchid genera. Our research confirms a significant level of PNC in Orchidaceae, even within taxa exhibiting a transatlantic disjunction. The analysis of the evolution of climatic suitability indicated that the adaptation to various climatic conditions is not a factor that has driven speciation within orchids studied.

  17. Phylogeny and niche conservatism in North and Central American triatomine bugs (Hemiptera: Reduviidae: Triatominae), vectors of Chagas' disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ibarra-Cerdeña, Carlos N; Zaldívar-Riverón, Alejandro; Peterson, A Townsend; Sánchez-Cordero, Víctor; Ramsey, Janine M

    2014-10-01

    The niche conservatism hypothesis states that related species diverge in niche characteristics at lower rates than expected, given their lineage divergence. Here we analyze whether niche conservatism is a common pattern among vector species (Hemiptera: Reduviidae: Triatominae) of Trypanosoma cruzi that inhabit North and Central America, a highly heterogeneous landmass in terms of environmental gradients. Mitochondrial and nuclear loci were used in a multi-locus phylogenetic framework to reconstruct phylogenetic relationships among species and estimate time of divergence of selected clades to draw biogeographic inferences. Then, we estimated similarity between the ecological niche of sister species and tested the niche conservatism hypothesis using our best estimate of phylogeny. Triatoma is not monophyletic. A primary clade with all North and Central American (NCA) triatomine species from the genera Triatoma, Dipetalogaster, and Panstrongylus, was consistently recovered. Nearctic species within the NCA clade (T. p. protracta, T. r. rubida) diverged during the Pliocene, whereas the Neotropical species (T. phyllosoma, T. longipennis, T. dimidiata complex) are estimated to have diverged more recently, during the Pleistocene. The hypothesis of niche conservatism could not be rejected for any of six sister species pairs. Niche similarity between sister species best fits a retention model. While this framework is used here to infer niche evolution, it has a direct impact on spatial vector dynamics driven by human population movements, expansion of transportation networks and climate change scenarios.

  18. Niche models tell half the story

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Swab, Rebecca Marie; Regan, Helen M.; Keith, David A.

    2012-01-01

    functions representing a suite of average fire return intervals. We compared scenarios with a variety of hypothetical patches, a patch framework based upon current habitat suitability and one with dynamic habitat suitability based on climate change scenarios A1FI and A2. Results  Leucopogon setiger...... than frequent fire. Main conclusions  Altered fire regime, in particular more frequent fires relative to the historical regime, was predicted to be a strong threat to this species, which may reflect a vulnerability of obligate seeders in general. Range shifts induced by climate change were a secondary...

  19. Predicting fundamental and realized distributions based on thermal niche: A case study of a freshwater turtle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodrigues, João Fabrício Mota; Coelho, Marco Túlio Pacheco; Ribeiro, Bruno R.

    2018-04-01

    Species distribution models (SDM) have been broadly used in ecology to address theoretical and practical problems. Currently, there are two main approaches to generate SDMs: (i) correlative, which is based on species occurrences and environmental predictor layers and (ii) process-based models, which are constructed based on species' functional traits and physiological tolerances. The distributions estimated by each approach are based on different components of species niche. Predictions of correlative models approach species realized niches, while predictions of process-based are more akin to species fundamental niche. Here, we integrated the predictions of fundamental and realized distributions of the freshwater turtle Trachemys dorbigni. Fundamental distribution was estimated using data of T. dorbigni's egg incubation temperature, and realized distribution was estimated using species occurrence records. Both types of distributions were estimated using the same regression approaches (logistic regression and support vector machines), both considering macroclimatic and microclimatic temperatures. The realized distribution of T. dorbigni was generally nested in its fundamental distribution reinforcing theoretical assumptions that the species' realized niche is a subset of its fundamental niche. Both modelling algorithms produced similar results but microtemperature generated better results than macrotemperature for the incubation model. Finally, our results reinforce the conclusion that species realized distributions are constrained by other factors other than just thermal tolerances.

  20. Structure and Deformation in the Transpressive Zone of Southern California Inferred from Seismicity, Velocity, and Qp Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hauksson, E.; Shearer, P.

    2004-12-01

    We synthesize relocated regional seismicity and 3D velocity and Qp models to infer structure and deformation in the transpressive zone of southern California. These models provide a comprehensive synthesis of the tectonic fabric of the upper to middle crust, and the brittle ductile transition zone that in some cases extends into the lower crust. The regional seismicity patterns in southern California are brought into focus when the hypocenters are relocated using the double difference method. In detail, often the spatial correlation between background seismicity and late Quaternary faults is improved as the hypocenters become more clustered, and the spatial patterns are more sharply defined. Along some of the strike-slip faults the seismicity clusters decrease in width and form alignments implying that in many cases the clusters are associated with a single fault. In contrast, the Los Angeles Basin seismicity remains mostly scattered, reflecting a 3D distribution of the tectonic compression. We present the results of relocating 327,000 southern California earthquakes that occurred between 1984 and 2002. In particular, the depth distribution is improved and less affected by layer boundaries in velocity models or other similar artifacts, and thus improves the definition of the brittle ductile transition zone. The 3D VP and VP/VS models confirm existing tectonic interpretations and provide new insights into the configuration of the geological structures in southern California. The models extend from the US-Mexico border in the south to the Coast Ranges and Sierra Nevada in the north, and have 15 km horizontal grid spacing and an average vertical grid spacing of 4 km, down to 22 km depth. The heterogeneity of the crustal structure as imaged in both the VP and VP/VS models is larger within the Pacific than the North America plate, reflecting regional asymmetric variations in the crustal composition and past tectonic processes. Similarly, the relocated seismicity is

  1. Development of State Interindustry Models for Rocky Mountain Region and California

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sathaye, Jayant A.; Kunin, Leonard

    1976-02-01

    Interindustry tables have been developed for the eight Rocky Mountain States and California. These tables are based on the 367-order 1967 national interindustry table. The national matrix was expanded to 404 sectors by disaggregating the seven minerals industries to 44 industries. The state tables can be used for energy and other resource analysis. Regional impacts of alternate development strategies can be evaluated with their use. A general computer program has been developed to facilitate construction of state interindustry tables.

  2. Sources and transport of phosphorus to rivers in California and adjacent states, U.S., as determined by SPARROW modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Domagalski, Joseph L.; Saleh, Dina

    2015-01-01

    The SPARROW (SPAtially Referenced Regression on Watershed attributes) model was used to simulate annual phosphorus loads and concentrations in unmonitored stream reaches in California, U.S., and portions of Nevada and Oregon. The model was calibrated using de-trended streamflow and phosphorus concentration data at 80 locations. The model explained 91% of the variability in loads and 51% of the variability in yields for a base year of 2002. Point sources, geological background, and cultivated land were significant sources. Variables used to explain delivery of phosphorus from land to water were precipitation and soil clay content. Aquatic loss of phosphorus was significant in streams of all sizes, with the greatest decay predicted in small- and intermediate-sized streams. Geological sources, including volcanic rocks and shales, were the principal control on concentrations and loads in many regions. Some localized formations such as the Monterey shale of southern California are important sources of phosphorus and may contribute to elevated stream concentrations. Many of the larger point source facilities were located in downstream areas, near the ocean, and do not affect inland streams except for a few locations. Large areas of cultivated land result in phosphorus load increases, but do not necessarily increase the loads above those of geological background in some cases because of local hydrology, which limits the potential of phosphorus transport from land to streams.

  3. Using field data to assess model predictions of surface and ground fuel consumption by wildfire in coniferous forests of California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lydersen, Jamie M.; Collins, Brandon M.; Ewell, Carol M.; Reiner, Alicia L.; Fites, Jo Ann; Dow, Christopher B.; Gonzalez, Patrick; Saah, David S.; Battles, John J.

    2014-03-01

    Inventories of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from wildfire provide essential information to the state of California, USA, and other governments that have enacted emission reductions. Wildfires can release a substantial amount of GHGs and other compounds to the atmosphere, so recent increases in fire activity may be increasing GHG emissions. Quantifying wildfire emissions however can be difficult due to inherent variability in fuel loads and consumption and a lack of field data of fuel consumption by wildfire. We compare a unique set of fuel data collected immediately before and after six wildfires in coniferous forests of California to fuel consumption predictions of the first-order fire effects model (FOFEM), based on two different available fuel characterizations. We found strong regional differences in the performance of different fuel characterizations, with FOFEM overestimating the fuel consumption to a greater extent in the Klamath Mountains than in the Sierra Nevada. Inaccurate fuel load inputs caused the largest differences between predicted and observed fuel consumption. Fuel classifications tended to overestimate duff load and underestimate litter load, leading to differences in predicted emissions for some pollutants. When considering total ground and surface fuels, modeled consumption was fairly accurate on average, although the range of error in estimates of plot level consumption was very large. These results highlight the importance of fuel load input to the accuracy of modeled fuel consumption and GHG emissions from wildfires in coniferous forests.

  4. ECRB ALCOVE AND NICHE GROUND SUPPORT ANALYSIS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    J.W. Keifer

    1999-01-01

    The purpose of the analysis is to provide design bases for Enhanced Characterization of the Repository Block (ECRB) alcove and niche ground support drawings. The objective is to evaluate the ESF Alcove Ground Support Analysis (Ref 5.1) to determine if the calculations technically bound the ECRB alcoves and to address specific differences in the conditions and constraints

  5. Niche versus neutrality: a dynamical analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michael Kalyuzhny; Efrat Seri; Rachel Chocron; Curtis H. Flather; Ronen Kadmon; Nadav M. Shnerb

    2014-01-01

    Understanding the forces shaping ecological communities is of crucial importance for basic science and conservation. After 50 years in which ecological theory has focused on either stable communities driven by niche-based forces or nonstable “neutral” communities driven by demographic stochasticity, contemporary theories suggest that ecological communities are driven...

  6. Development of a laboratory niche Web site.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dimenstein, Izak B; Dimenstein, Simon I

    2013-10-01

    This technical note presents the development of a methodological laboratory niche Web site. The "Grossing Technology in Surgical Pathology" (www.grossing-technology.com) Web site is used as an example. Although common steps in creation of most Web sites are followed, there are particular requirements for structuring the template's menu on methodological laboratory Web sites. The "nested doll principle," in which one object is placed inside another, most adequately describes the methodological approach to laboratory Web site design. Fragmentation in presenting the Web site's material highlights the discrete parts of the laboratory procedure. An optimally minimal triad of components can be recommended for the creation of a laboratory niche Web site: a main set of media, a blog, and an ancillary component (host, contact, and links). The inclusion of a blog makes the Web site a dynamic forum for professional communication. By forming links and portals, cloud computing opens opportunities for connecting a niche Web site with other Web sites and professional organizations. As an additional source of information exchange, methodological laboratory niche Web sites are destined to parallel both traditional and new forms, such as books, journals, seminars, webinars, and internal educational materials. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. Niche construction and the evolution of leadership

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Spisak, B.R.; O'Brien, M.; Nicholson, N.; van Vugt, M.

    2015-01-01

    We use the concept of niche construction - the process whereby individuals, through their activities, interactions, and choices, modify their own and each other's environments - as an example of how biological evolution and cultural evolution interacted to form an integrative foundation of modern

  8. Niche dimensions in fishes: an integrative view.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pörtner, H O; Schulte, P M; Wood, C M; Schiemer, F

    2010-01-01

    Current shifts in ecosystem composition and function emphasize the need for an understanding of the links between environmental factors and organism fitness and tolerance. The examples discussed here illustrate how recent progress in the field of comparative physiology may provide a better mechanistic understanding of the ecological concepts of the fundamental and realized niches and thus provide insights into the impacts of anthropogenic disturbance. Here we argue that, as a link between physiological and ecological indicators of organismal performance, the mechanisms shaping aerobic scope and passive tolerance set the dimensions of an animal's niche, here defined as its capacity to survive, grow, behave, and interact with other species. We demonstrate how comparative studies of cod or killifish populations in a latitudinal cline have unraveled mitochondrial mechanisms involved in establishing a species' niche, performance, and energy budget. Riverine fish exemplify how the performance windows of various developmental stages follow the dynamic regimes of both seasonal temperatures and river hydrodynamics, as synergistic challenges. Finally, studies of species in extreme environments, such as the tilapia of Lake Magadi, illustrate how on evolutionary timescales functional and morphological shifts can occur, associated with new specializations. We conclude that research on the processes and time course of adaptations suitable to overcome current niche limits is urgently needed to assess the resilience of species and ecosystems to human impact, including the challenges of global climate change.

  9. Niche Marketing Potentials for Farm Entrepreneurs in Nigeria https ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    User

    . Niche marketing involves targetting a product or service to a small but specific well ... Table 1: Examples of possible niche markets for entrepreneurs in Nigeria. Farm Business .... Concepts, Principles and Decisions, 2nd Edition. Afritowers ...

  10. Bone Marrow Vascular Niche: Home for Hematopoietic Stem Cells

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ningning He

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Though discovered later than osteoblastic niche, vascular niche has been regarded as an alternative indispensable niche operating regulation on hematopoietic stem cells (HSCs. As significant progresses gained on this type niche, it is gradually clear that the main work of vascular niche is undertaking to support hematopoiesis. However, compared to what have been defined in the mechanisms through which the osteoblastic niche regulates hematopoiesis, we know less in vascular niche. In this review, based on research data hitherto we will focus on component foundation and various functions of vascular niche that guarantee the normal hematopoiesis process within bone marrow microenvironments. And the possible pathways raised by various research results through which this environment undergoes its function will be discussed as well.

  11. 3-D Velocity Model of the Coachella Valley, Southern California Based on Explosive Shots from the Salton Seismic Imaging Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Persaud, P.; Stock, J. M.; Fuis, G. S.; Hole, J. A.; Goldman, M.; Scheirer, D. S.

    2014-12-01

    We have analyzed explosive shot data from the 2011 Salton Seismic Imaging Project (SSIP) across a 2-D seismic array and 5 profiles in the Coachella Valley to produce a 3-D P-wave velocity model that will be used in calculations of strong ground shaking. Accurate maps of seismicity and active faults rely both on detailed geological field mapping and a suitable velocity model to accurately locate earthquakes. Adjoint tomography of an older version of the SCEC 3-D velocity model shows that crustal heterogeneities strongly influence seismic wave propagation from moderate earthquakes (Tape et al., 2010). These authors improve the crustal model and subsequently simulate the details of ground motion at periods of 2 s and longer for hundreds of ray paths. Even with improvements such as the above, the current SCEC velocity model for the Salton Trough does not provide a match of the timing or waveforms of the horizontal S-wave motions, which Wei et al. (2013) interpret as caused by inaccuracies in the shallow velocity structure. They effectively demonstrate that the inclusion of shallow basin structure improves the fit in both travel times and waveforms. Our velocity model benefits from the inclusion of known location and times of a subset of 126 shots detonated over a 3-week period during the SSIP. This results in an improved velocity model particularly in the shallow crust. In addition, one of the main challenges in developing 3-D velocity models is an uneven stations-source distribution. To better overcome this challenge, we also include the first arrival times of the SSIP shots at the more widely spaced Southern California Seismic Network (SCSN) in our inversion, since the layout of the SSIP is complementary to the SCSN. References: Tape, C., et al., 2010, Seismic tomography of the Southern California crust based on spectral-element and adjoint methods: Geophysical Journal International, v. 180, no. 1, p. 433-462. Wei, S., et al., 2013, Complementary slip distributions

  12. California Red-Legged Frog Range - CWHR [ds587

    Data.gov (United States)

    California Natural Resource Agency — Vector datasets of CWHR range maps are one component of California Wildlife Habitat Relationships (CWHR), a comprehensive information system and predictive model for...

  13. Ecological niche models and patterns of richness and endemism of the southern Andean genus Eurymetopum (Coleoptera, Cleridae Modelos de nicho ecológico y patrones de riqueza y endemismo del género andino austral Eurymetopum (Coleoptera, Cleridae

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tania Escalante

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Eurymetopum is an Andean clerid genus with 22 species. We modeled the ecological niches of 19 species with Maxent and used them as potential distributional maps to identify patterns of richness and endemicity. All modeled species maps were overlapped in a single map in order to determine richness. We performed an optimality analysis with NDM/VNDM in a grid of 1º latitude-longitude in order to identify endemism. We found a highly rich area, located between 32º and 41º south latitude, where the richest pixels have 16 species. One area of endemism was identified, located in the Maule and Valdivian Forest biogeographic provinces, which extends also to the Santiago province of the Central Chilean subregion, and contains four endemic species (E. parallelum, E. prasinum, E. proteus, and E. viride, as well as 16 non-endemic species. The sympatry of these phylogenetically unrelated species might indicate ancient vicariance processes, followed by episodes of dispersal. Based on our results, we suggest a close relationship between these provinces, with the Maule representing a complex area.Eurymetopum es un género de cléridos andinos con 22 especies. Modelamos los nichos ecológicos de 19 especies con Maxent y los utilizamos como mapas de distribución potencial para identificar patrones de riqueza y endemismo. Todos los mapas de las especies se superpusieron en un mapa único para determinar la riqueza. Realizamos un análisis de optimalidad con NDM/VNDM en una cuadrícula de 1º de latitud-longitud para identificar el endemismo. Hallamos un área de mayor riqueza, localizada entre los 32º y 41º de latitud sur, donde los pixeles más ricos poseen 16 especies. Se identificó un área de endemismo en las provincias biogeográficas del Maule y el Bosque Valdiviano, la cual se extiende también a la provincia de Santiago de la subregión Chilena Central, y que contiene cuatro especies endémicas (E. parallelum, E. prasinum, E. proteus y E. viride, as

  14. Shallow Crustal Structure in the Northern Salton Trough, California: Insights from a Detailed 3-D Velocity Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ajala, R.; Persaud, P.; Stock, J. M.; Fuis, G. S.; Hole, J. A.; Goldman, M.; Scheirer, D. S.

    2017-12-01

    The Coachella Valley is the northern extent of the Gulf of California-Salton Trough. It contains the southernmost segment of the San Andreas Fault (SAF) for which a magnitude 7.8 earthquake rupture was modeled to help produce earthquake planning scenarios. However, discrepancies in ground motion and travel-time estimates from the current Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC) velocity model of the Salton Trough highlight inaccuracies in its shallow velocity structure. An improved 3-D velocity model that better defines the shallow basin structure and enables the more accurate location of earthquakes and identification of faults is therefore essential for seismic hazard studies in this area. We used recordings of 126 explosive shots from the 2011 Salton Seismic Imaging Project (SSIP) to SSIP receivers and Southern California Seismic Network (SCSN) stations. A set of 48,105 P-wave travel time picks constituted the highest-quality input to a 3-D tomographic velocity inversion. To improve the ray coverage, we added network-determined first arrivals at SCSN stations from 39,998 recently relocated local earthquakes, selected to a maximum focal depth of 10 km, to develop a detailed 3-D P-wave velocity model for the Coachella Valley with 1-km grid spacing. Our velocity model shows good resolution ( 50 rays/cubic km) down to a minimum depth of 7 km. Depth slices from the velocity model reveal several interesting features. At shallow depths ( 3 km), we observe an elongated trough of low velocity, attributed to sediments, located subparallel to and a few km SW of the SAF, and a general velocity structure that mimics the surface geology of the area. The persistence of the low-velocity sediments to 5-km depth just north of the Salton Sea suggests that the underlying basement surface, shallower to the NW, dips SE, consistent with interpretation from gravity studies (Langenheim et al., 2005). On the western side of the Coachella Valley, we detect depth-restricted regions of

  15. Distribution modelling of pre-Columbian California grasslands with soil phytoliths: New insights for prehistoric grassland ecology and restoration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fick, Stephen E; Evett, Rand R

    2018-01-01

    Historical reconstructions of plant community distributions are useful for biogeographic studies and restoration planning, but the quality of insights gained depends on the depth and reliability of historical information available. For the Central Valley of California, one of the most altered terrestrial ecosystems on the planet, this task is particularly difficult given poor historical documentation and sparse relict assemblages of pre-invasion plant species. Coastal and interior prairies were long assumed to have been dominated by perennial bunchgrasses, but this hypothesis has recently been challenged. We evaluated this hypothesis by creating species distribution models (SDMs) using a novel approach based on the abundance of soil phytoliths (microscopic particles of biogenic silica used as a proxy for long-term grass presence) extracted from soil samples at locations statewide. Modeled historical grass abundance was consistently high along the coast and to a lesser extent in higher elevation foothills surrounding the Central Valley. SDMs found strong associations with mean temperature, temperature variability, and precipitation variability, with higher predicted abundance in regions with cooler, equable temperatures and moderated rainfall, mirroring the pattern for modern perennial grass distribution across the state. The results of this study strongly suggest that the pre-Columbian Central Valley of California was not dominated by grasses. Using soil phytolith data as input for SDMs is a promising new method for predicting the extent of prehistoric grass distributions where alternative historical datasets are lacking.

  16. Ten Niche Strategies To Commercialize New High-Tech Products

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ortt, J.R.; Langley, D.J.; Pals, N.

    2013-01-01

    There are serious gaps in the scientific literature relating to niche strategies as a means for commercializing new high-tech products. In particular, there is no clarity about what types of niche strategies can be distinguished, or how a niche strategy can be selected to suit a certain ituation. In

  17. Functional traits, convergent evolution, and periodic tables of niches.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winemiller, Kirk O; Fitzgerald, Daniel B; Bower, Luke M; Pianka, Eric R

    2015-08-01

    Ecology is often said to lack general theories sufficiently predictive for applications. Here, we examine the concept of a periodic table of niches and feasibility of niche classification schemes from functional trait and performance data. Niche differences and their influence on ecological patterns and processes could be revealed effectively by first performing data reduction/ordination analyses separately on matrices of trait and performance data compiled according to logical associations with five basic niche 'dimensions', or aspects: habitat, life history, trophic, defence and metabolic. Resultant patterns then are integrated to produce interpretable niche gradients, ordinations and classifications. Degree of scheme periodicity would depend on degrees of niche conservatism and convergence causing species clustering across multiple niche dimensions. We analysed a sample data set containing trait and performance data to contrast two approaches for producing niche schemes: species ordination within niche gradient space, and niche categorisation according to trait-value thresholds. Creation of niche schemes useful for advancing ecological knowledge and its applications will depend on research that produces functional trait and performance datasets directly related to niche dimensions along with criteria for data standardisation and quality. As larger databases are compiled, opportunities will emerge to explore new methods for data reduction, ordination and classification. © 2015 The Authors. Ecology Letters published by CNRS and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  18. Analog model study of the ground-water basin of the Upper Coachella Valley, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tyley, Stephen J.

    1974-01-01

    An analog model of the ground-water basin of the upper Coachella Valley was constructed to determine the effects of imported water on ground-water levels. The model was considered verified when the ground-water levels generated by the model approximated the historical change in water levels of the ground-water basin caused by man's activities for the period 1986-67. The ground-water basin was almost unaffected by man's activities until about 1945 when ground-water development caused the water levels to begin to decline. The Palm Springs area has had the largest water-level decline, 75 feet since 1986, because of large pumpage, reduced natural inflow from the San Gorgonio Pass area, and diversions of natural inflows at Snow and Falls Creeks and Chino Canyon starting in 1945. The San Gorgonio Pass inflow had been reduced from about 18,000 acre-feet in 1986 to about 9,000 acre-feet by 1967 because of increased ground-water pumpage in the San Gorgonio Pass area, dewatering of the San Gorgonio Pass area that took place when the tunnel for the Metropolitan Water District of Southern California was drilled, and diversions of surface inflow at Snow and Falls Creeks. In addition, 1944-64 was a period of below-normal precipitation which, in part, contributed to the declines in water levels in the Coachella Valley. The Desert Hot Springs, Garnet Hill, and Mission Creek subbasins have had relatively little development; consequently, the water-level declines have been small, ranging from 5 to 15 feet since 1986. In the Point Happy area a decline of about 2 feet per year continued until 1949 when delivery of Colorado River water to the lower valley through the Coachella Canal was initiated. Since 1949 the water levels in the Point Happy area have been rising and by 1967 were above their 1986 levels. The Whitewater River subbasin includes the largest aquifer in the basin, having sustained ground-water pumpage of about 740,000 acre-feet from 1986 to 1967, and will probably

  19. Testing alternative conceptual models of seawater intrusion in a coastal aquifer using computer simulation, southern California, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nishikawa, Tracy

    1997-01-01

    Two alternative conceptual models of the physical processes controlling seawater intrusion in a coastal basin in California, USA, were tested to identify a likely principal pathway for seawater intrusion. The conceptual models were tested by using a two-dimensional, finite-element groundwater flow and transport model. This pathway was identified by the conceptual model that best replicated the historical data. The numerical model was applied in cross section to a submarine canyon that is a main avenue for seawater to enter the aquifer system underlying the study area. Both models are characterized by a heterogeneous, layered, water-bearing aquifer. However, the first model is characterized by flat-lying aquifer layers and by a high value of hydraulic conductivity in the basal aquifer layer, which is thought to be a principal conduit for seawater intrusion. The second model is characterized by offshore folding, which was modeled as a very nearshore outcrop, thereby providing a shorter path for seawater to intrude. General conclusions are that: 1) the aquifer system is best modeled as a flat, heterogeneous, layered system; 2) relatively thin basal layers with relatively high values of hydraulic conductivity are the principal pathways for seawater intrusion; and 3) continuous clay layers of low hydraulic conductivity play an important role in controlling the movement of seawater.

  20. Modeling of Trans-boundary Transport of Air Pollutants in the California-Mexico Border Region during Cal-Mex 2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bei, N.; Zavala, M. A.; Lei, W.; Li, G.; Molina, L. T.

    2010-12-01

    The US and Mexico share a common air basin along the ~200 km border between California and Baja California. The economical activities in this region are heavily influenced by the international trade and commerce between Mexico and the US that mainly occurs through the borders of the sister cities of San Diego-Tijuana and Calexico-Mexicali. The diversity and differences in the characteristics of emissions sources of air pollutants in the California-Mexico border region make this an important area for the study of the chemistry and trans-boundary transport of air pollutants. During May-June of 2010, the Cal-Mex 2010 field campaign included a series of measurements aimed at characterizing the emissions from major sources in the California-Mexico border region and assessing the possible impacts of these emissions on local and regional air quality. In this work we will present the results of the use of the Comprehensive Air quality model with extensions (CAMx) in a modeling domain that includes the sister cities of San Diego-Tijuana and Calexico-Mexicali for studying events of trans-boundary transport of air pollutants during Cal-Mex 2010. The measurements obtained during the Cal-Mex 2010 field campaign are used in the evaluation of the model performance and in the design of air quality improvement policies in the California-Mexico border region.

  1. Analysis of Alcove 8/Niche 3 Flow and Transport Tests

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    H.H. Liu

    2006-01-01

    The purpose of this report is to document analyses of the Alcove 8/Niche 3 flow and transport tests, with a focus on the large-infiltration-plot tests and compare pre-test model predictions with the actual test observations. The tests involved infiltration that originated from the floor of Alcove 8 (located in the Enhanced Characterization of Repository Block (ECRB) Cross Drift) and observations of seepage and tracer transport at Niche 3 (located in the Main Drift of the Exploratory Studies Facility (ESF)). The test results are relevant to drift seepage and solute transport in the unsaturated zone (UZ) of Yucca Mountain. The main objective of this analysis was to evaluate the modeling approaches used and the importance of the matrix diffusion process by comparing simulation and actual test observations. The pre-test predictions for the large plot test were found to differ from the observations and the reasons for the differences were documented in this report to partly address CR 6783, which concerns unexpected test results. These unexpected results are discussed and assessed with respect to the current baseline unsaturated zone radionuclide transport model in Sections 6.2.4, 6.3.2, and 6.4

  2. Two-dimensional magnetotelluric model of deep resistivity structure in the Bodie-Aurora district of California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sampson, Jay A.

    2006-01-01

    Introduction: Magnetotelluric data were acquired during October 2001 by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) as part of a study to examine the structural nature of basins in the transition zone between the Sierra Nevada Mountains of California and the Basin and Range province of Nevada. Magnetotelluric (MT) geophysical studies assist the mapping of geologic structure and the inference of lithologic packages that are concealed beneath the Earth's surface. The Basin and Range province has a complicated geologic history, which includes extension and compression of the Earth's crust to form the basins and ranges that blanket much of Nevada. The basins and ranges in the vicinity of this study trend northeastward and are bounded by steeply dipping strike slip faults. Interestingly, deep east-west magnetic trends occur in the aeromagnetic data of this study area indicating that the northeast-trending basins and ranges represent only thin-skinned deformation at the surface with an underlying east-west structure. To investigate this issue, MT data were acquired at seven stations in eastern California, 20 km east of Mono Lake. The purpose of this report is to present a two-dimensional apparent resistivity model of the MT data acquired for this study.

  3. Modeling the oxidative capacity of the atmosphere of the south coast air basin of California. 2. HOx radical production.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griffin, Robert J

    2004-02-01

    The production of HOx radicals in the South Coast Air Basin of California is investigated during the smog episode of September 9, 1993 using the California Institute of Technology (CIT) air-quality model. Sources of HOx(hydroxyl, hydroperoxy, and organic peroxy radicals) incorporated into the associated gas-phase chemical mechanism include the combination of excited-state singlet oxygen (formed from ozone (O3) photolysis (hv)) with water, the photolysis of nitrous acid, hydrogen peroxide (H2O2), and carbonyl compounds (formaldehyde (HCHO) or higher aldehydes and ketones), the consumption of aldehydes and alkenes (ALK) by the nitrate radical, and the consumption of alkenes by O3 and the oxygen atom (O). At a given time or location for surface cells and vertical averages, each route of HOx formation may be the greatest contributor to overall formation except HCHO-hv, H2O2-hv, and ALK-O, the latter two of which are insignificant pathways in general. The contribution of the ALK-O3 pathway is dependent on the stoichiometric yield of OH, but this pathway, at least for the studied smog episode, may not be as generally significant as previous research suggests. Future emissions scenarios yield lower total HOx production rates and a shift in the relative importance of individual pathways.

  4. Modeling the oxidative capacity of the atmosphere of the south coast air basin of California. 1. Ozone formation metrics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griffin, Robert J; Revelle, Meghan K; Dabdub, Donald

    2004-02-01

    Metrics associated with ozone (O3) formation are investigated using the California Institute of Technology (CIT) three-dimensional air-quality model. Variables investigated include the O3 production rate (P(O3)), O3 production efficiency (OPE), and total reactivity (the sum of the reactivity of carbon monoxide (CO) and all organic gases that react with the hydroxyl radical). Calculations are spatially and temporally resolved; surface-level and vertically averaged results are shown for September 9, 1993 for three Southern California locations: Central Los Angeles, Azusa, and Riverside. Predictions indicate increasing surface-level O3 concentrations with distance downwind, in line with observations. Surface-level and vertically averaged P(O3) values peak during midday and are highest downwind; surface P(O3) values are greater than vertically averaged values. Surface OPEs generally are highest downwind and peak during midday in downwind locations. In contrast, peaks occur in early morning and late afternoon in the vertically averaged case. Vertically averaged OPEs tend to be greater than those for the surface. Total reactivities are highest in upwind surface locations and peak during rush hours; vertically averaged reactivities are smaller and tend to be more uniform temporally and spatially. Total reactivity has large contributions from CO, alkanes, alkenes, aldehydes, unsubstituted monoaromatics, and secondary organics. Calculations using estimated emissions for 2010 result in decreases in P(O3) values and reactivities but increases in OPEs.

  5. Doctoral education in a successful ecological niche

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Mette Krogh; Lund, Ole

    2014-01-01

    Scholarly communities are dependent on and often measured by their ability to attract and develop doctoral students. Recent literature suggests that most scholarly communities entail ecological niches in which the doctoral students learn the codes and practices of research. In this article, we...... successful doctoral education because it: 1) fleshes out the professional attitude that is necessary for becoming a successful researcher in the department, 2) shapes and adapts the doctoral students’ desires to grasp and identify with the department’s practices, and 3) provides the doctoral students...... explore the microclimate in an ecological niche of doctoral education. Based on a theoretical definition of microclimate as the emotional atmosphere that ties group members together and affects their actions, we conducted a case study that aimed to describe the key features of the microclimate...

  6. UNTANGLING THE FUNGAL NICHE: A TRAIT-BASED APPROACH

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas W Crowther

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Fungi are prominent components of most terrestrial ecosystems, both in terms of biomass and ecosystem functioning, but the hyper-diverse nature of most communities has obscured the search for unifying principles governing community organization. In particular, unlike plants and animals, observational studies provide little evidence for the existence of niche processes in structuring fungal communities at broad spatial scales. This limits our capacity to predict how communities, and their functioning, vary across landscapes. We outline how a shift in focus, from taxonomy towards functional traits, might prove to be valuable in the search for general patterns in fungal ecology. We build on theoretical advances in plant and animal ecology to provide an empirical framework for a trait-based approach in fungal community ecology. Drawing upon specific characteristics of the fungal system, we highlight the significance of drought stress and combat in structuring free-living fungal communities. We propose a conceptual model to formalize how trade-offs between stress-tolerance and combative dominance are likely to organize communities across environmental gradients. Given that the survival of a fungus in a given environment is contingent on its ability to tolerate antagonistic competitors, measuring variation in combat trait expression along environmental gradients provides a means of elucidating realized, from fundamental niche spaces. We conclude that, using a trait-based understanding of how niche processes structure fungal communities across time and space, we can ultimately link communities with ecosystem functioning. Our trait-based framework highlights fundamental uncertainties that require testing in the fungal system, given their potential to uncover general mechanisms in fungal ecology.

  7. Construction, calibration, and validation of the RBM10 water temperature model for the Trinity River, northern California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Edward C.; Perry, Russell W.; Risley, John C.; Som, Nicholas A.; Hetrick, Nicholas J.

    2016-03-31

    We constructed a one-dimensional daily averaged water-temperature model to simulate Trinity River temperatures for 1980–2013. The purpose of this model is to assess effects of water-management actions on water temperature and to provide water temperature inputs for a salmon population dynamics model. Simulated meteorological data, observed streamflow data, and observed water temperatures were used as model inputs to simulate a continuous 34-year time series of historical daily mean water temperature at eight locations along 112.2 river miles from Lewiston Dam near Weaverville, California, downstream to the Klamath River confluence. To demonstrate the utility of the model to inform management actions, we simulated three management alternatives to assess the effects of bypass flow augmentation in a drought year, 1994, and compared those results to the simulated historical baseline, referred to as the “No Action” alternative scenario. Augmentation flows from the Lewiston Dam bypass consist of temperature-controlled releases capable of cooling downstream water temperatures in hot times of the year, which can reduce the probability of disease outbreaks in fish populations. Outputs from the Trinity River water-temperature model were then used as inputs to an existing water-temperature model of the Klamath River to evaluate the effect of augmentation flow releases on water temperatures in the lower Klamath River. 

  8. Human niche, human behaviour, human nature.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuentes, Agustin

    2017-10-06

    The concept of a 'human nature' or 'human natures' retains a central role in theorizing about the human experience. In Homo sapiens it is clear that we have a suite of capacities generated via our evolutionary past, and present, and a flexible capacity to create and sustain particular kinds of cultures and to be shaped by them. Regardless of whether we label these capacities 'human natures' or not, humans occupy a distinctive niche and an evolutionary approach to examining it is critical. At present we are faced with a few different narratives as to exactly what such an evolutionary approach entails. There is a need for a robust and dynamic theoretical toolkit in order to develop a richer, and more nuanced, understanding of the cognitively sophisticated genus Homo and the diverse sorts of niches humans constructed and occupied across the Pleistocene, Holocene, and into the Anthropocene. Here I review current evolutionary approaches to 'human nature', arguing that we benefit from re-framing our investigations via the concept of the human niche and in the context of the extended evolutionary synthesis (EES). While not a replacement of standard evolutionary approaches, this is an expansion and enhancement of our toolkit. I offer brief examples from human evolution in support of these assertions.

  9. Making Blood: The Haematopoietic Niche throughout Ontogeny

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad A. Al-Drees

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Approximately one-quarter of all cells in the adult human body are blood cells. The haematopoietic system is therefore massive in scale and requires exquisite regulation to be maintained under homeostatic conditions. It must also be able to respond when needed, such as during infection or following blood loss, to produce more blood cells. Supporting cells serve to maintain haematopoietic stem and progenitor cells during homeostatic and pathological conditions. This coalition of supportive cell types, organised in specific tissues, is termed the haematopoietic niche. Haematopoietic stem and progenitor cells are generated in a number of distinct locations during mammalian embryogenesis. These stem and progenitor cells migrate to a variety of anatomical locations through the conceptus until finally homing to the bone marrow shortly before birth. Under stress, extramedullary haematopoiesis can take place in regions that are typically lacking in blood-producing activity. Our aim in this review is to examine blood production throughout the embryo and adult, under normal and pathological conditions, to identify commonalities and distinctions between each niche. A clearer understanding of the mechanism underlying each haematopoietic niche can be applied to improving ex vivo cultures of haematopoietic stem cells and potentially lead to new directions for transplantation medicine.

  10. Development and molecular composition of the hepatic progenitor cell niche.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vestentoft, Peter Siig

    2013-05-01

    End-stage liver diseases represent major health problems that are currently treated by liver transplantation. However, given the world-wide shortage of donor livers novel strategies are needed for therapeutic treatment. Adult stem cells have the ability to self-renew and differentiate into the more specialized cell types of a given organ and are found in tissues throughout the body. These cells, whose progeny are termed progenitor cells in human liver and oval cells in rodents, have the potential to treat patients through the generation of hepatic parenchymal cells, even from the patient's own tissue. Little is known regarding the nature of the hepatic progenitor cells. Though they are suggested to reside in the most distal part of the biliary tree, the canal of Hering, the lack of unique surface markers for these cells has hindered their isolation and characterization. Upon activation, they proliferate and form ductular structures, termed "ductular reactions", which radiate into the hepatic parenchyma. The ductular reactions contain activated progenitor cells that not only acquire a phenotype resembling that observed in developing liver but also display markers of differentiation shared with the cholangiocytic or hepatocytic lineages, the two parenchymal hepatic cell types. Interactions between the putative progenitor cells, the surrounding support cells and the extracellular matrix scaffold, all constituting the progenitor cell niche, are likely to be important for regulating progenitor cell activity and differentiation. Therefore, identifying novel progenitor cell markers and deciphering their microenvironment could facilitate clinical use. The aims of the present PhD thesis were to expand knowledge of the hepatic progenitor cell niche and characterize it both during development and in disease. Several animal models of hepatic injury are known to induce activation of the progenitor cells. In order to identify possible progenitor cell markers and niche components

  11. Groundwater-flow and land-subsidence model of Antelope Valley, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siade, Adam J.; Nishikawa, Tracy; Rewis, Diane L.; Martin, Peter; Phillips, Steven P.

    2014-01-01

    Antelope Valley, California, is a topographically closed basin in the western part of the Mojave Desert, about 50 miles northeast of Los Angeles. The Antelope Valley groundwater basin is about 940 square miles and is separated from the northern part of Antelope Valley by faults and low-lying hills. Prior to 1972, groundwater provided more than 90 percent of the total water supply in the valley; since 1972, it has provided between 50 and 90 percent. Most groundwater pumping in the valley occurs in the Antelope Valley groundwater basin, which includes the rapidly growing cities of Lancaster and Palmdale. Groundwater-level declines of more than 270 feet in some parts of the groundwater basin have resulted in an increase in pumping lifts, reduced well efficiency, and land subsidence of more than 6 feet in some areas. Future urban growth and limits on the supply of imported water may increase reliance on groundwater.

  12. Effect of species rarity on the accuracy of species distribution models for reptiles and amphibians in southern California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Franklin, J.; Wejnert, K.E.; Hathaway, S.A.; Rochester, C.J.; Fisher, R.N.

    2009-01-01

    Aim: Several studies have found that more accurate predictive models of species' occurrences can be developed for rarer species; however, one recent study found the relationship between range size and model performance to be an artefact of sample prevalence, that is, the proportion of presence versus absence observations in the data used to train the model. We examined the effect of model type, species rarity class, species' survey frequency, detectability and manipulated sample prevalence on the accuracy of distribution models developed for 30 reptile and amphibian species. Location: Coastal southern California, USA. Methods: Classification trees, generalized additive models and generalized linear models were developed using species presence and absence data from 420 locations. Model performance was measured using sensitivity, specificity and the area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) plot based on twofold cross-validation, or on bootstrapping. Predictors included climate, terrain, soil and vegetation variables. Species were assigned to rarity classes by experts. The data were sampled to generate subsets with varying ratios of presences and absences to test for the effect of sample prevalence. Join count statistics were used to characterize spatial dependence in the prediction errors. Results: Species in classes with higher rarity were more accurately predicted than common species, and this effect was independent of sample prevalence. Although positive spatial autocorrelation remained in the prediction errors, it was weaker than was observed in the species occurrence data. The differences in accuracy among model types were slight. Main conclusions: Using a variety of modelling methods, more accurate species distribution models were developed for rarer than for more common species. This was presumably because it is difficult to discriminate suitable from unsuitable habitat for habitat generalists, and not as an artefact of the

  13. Adaptation and niche construction in human prehistory: a case study from the southern Scandinavian Late Glacial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riede, Felix

    2011-03-27

    The niche construction model postulates that human bio-social evolution is composed of three inheritance domains, genetic, cultural and ecological, linked by feedback selection. This paper argues that many kinds of archaeological data can serve as proxies for human niche construction processes, and presents a method for investigating specific niche construction hypotheses. To illustrate this method, the repeated emergence of specialized reindeer (Rangifer tarandus) hunting/herding economies during the Late Palaeolithic (ca 14.7-11.5 kyr BP) in southern Scandinavia is analysed from a niche construction/triple-inheritance perspective. This economic relationship resulted in the eventual domestication of Rangifer. The hypothesis of whether domestication was achieved as early as the Late Palaeolithic, and whether this required the use of domesticated dogs (Canis familiaris) as hunting, herding or transport aids, is tested via a comparative analysis using material culture-based phylogenies and ecological datasets in relation to demographic/genetic proxies. Only weak evidence for sustained niche construction behaviours by prehistoric hunter-gatherer in southern Scandinavia is found, but this study nonetheless provides interesting insights into the likely processes of dog and reindeer domestication, and into processes of adaptation in Late Glacial foragers.

  14. Estimating criteria pollutant emissions using the California Regional Multisector Air Quality Emissions (CA-REMARQUE model v1.0

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. B. Zapata

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available The California Regional Multisector Air Quality Emissions (CA-REMARQUE model is developed to predict changes to criteria pollutant emissions inventories in California in response to sophisticated emissions control programs implemented to achieve deep greenhouse gas (GHG emissions reductions. Two scenarios for the year 2050 act as the starting point for calculations: a business-as-usual (BAU scenario and an 80 % GHG reduction (GHG-Step scenario. Each of these scenarios was developed with an energy economic model to optimize costs across the entire California economy and so they include changes in activity, fuels, and technology across economic sectors. Separate algorithms are developed to estimate emissions of criteria pollutants (or their precursors that are consistent with the future GHG scenarios for the following economic sectors: (i on-road, (ii rail and off-road, (iii marine and aviation, (iv residential and commercial, (v electricity generation, and (vi biorefineries. Properly accounting for new technologies involving electrification, biofuels, and hydrogen plays a central role in these calculations. Critically, criteria pollutant emissions do not decrease uniformly across all sectors of the economy. Emissions of certain criteria pollutants (or their precursors increase in some sectors as part of the overall optimization within each of the scenarios. This produces nonuniform changes to criteria pollutant emissions in close proximity to heavily populated regions when viewed at 4 km spatial resolution with implications for exposure to air pollution for those populations. As a further complication, changing fuels and technology also modify the composition of reactive organic gas emissions and the size and composition of particulate matter emissions. This is most notably apparent through a comparison of emissions reductions for different size fractions of primary particulate matter. Primary PM2.5 emissions decrease by 4 % in the GHG

  15. Estimating criteria pollutant emissions using the California Regional Multisector Air Quality Emissions (CA-REMARQUE) model v1.0

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zapata, Christina B.; Yang, Chris; Yeh, Sonia; Ogden, Joan; Kleeman, Michael J.

    2018-04-01

    The California Regional Multisector Air Quality Emissions (CA-REMARQUE) model is developed to predict changes to criteria pollutant emissions inventories in California in response to sophisticated emissions control programs implemented to achieve deep greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reductions. Two scenarios for the year 2050 act as the starting point for calculations: a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario and an 80 % GHG reduction (GHG-Step) scenario. Each of these scenarios was developed with an energy economic model to optimize costs across the entire California economy and so they include changes in activity, fuels, and technology across economic sectors. Separate algorithms are developed to estimate emissions of criteria pollutants (or their precursors) that are consistent with the future GHG scenarios for the following economic sectors: (i) on-road, (ii) rail and off-road, (iii) marine and aviation, (iv) residential and commercial, (v) electricity generation, and (vi) biorefineries. Properly accounting for new technologies involving electrification, biofuels, and hydrogen plays a central role in these calculations. Critically, criteria pollutant emissions do not decrease uniformly across all sectors of the economy. Emissions of certain criteria pollutants (or their precursors) increase in some sectors as part of the overall optimization within each of the scenarios. This produces nonuniform changes to criteria pollutant emissions in close proximity to heavily populated regions when viewed at 4 km spatial resolution with implications for exposure to air pollution for those populations. As a further complication, changing fuels and technology also modify the composition of reactive organic gas emissions and the size and composition of particulate matter emissions. This is most notably apparent through a comparison of emissions reductions for different size fractions of primary particulate matter. Primary PM2.5 emissions decrease by 4 % in the GHG-Step scenario vs

  16. Modeling identifies optimal fall planting times and irrigation requirements for canola and camelina at locations across California

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicholas George

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available In California, Brassica oilseeds may be viable crops for growers to diversify their cool-season crop options, helping them adapt to projected climate change and irrigation water shortages. Field trials have found germination and establishment problems in some late-planted canola, but not camelina at the same locations. We used computer modeling to analyze fall seedbed conditions to better understand this phenomenon. We found seedbeds may be too dry, too cold, or both, to support germination of canola during late fall. Based on seedbed temperatures only, canola should be sown no later than the last week of November in the Central Valley. Camelina has broader temperature and moisture windows for germination and can be sown from October to December with less risk, but yields of camelina are lower than canola yields. In areas without irrigation, growers could plant canola opportunistically when seedbed conditions are favorable and use camelina as a fallback option.

  17. Natural Gas Variability In California: Environmental Impacts And Device Performance Combustion Modeling of Pollutant Emissions From a Residential Cooking Range

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tonse, S. R.; Singer, B. C.

    2011-07-01

    As part of a larger study of liquefied natural gas impacts on device performance and pollutant emissions for existing equipment in California, this report describes a cmoputer modeling study of a partially premixed flame issueing from a single cooktop burner port. The model consisted of a reactive computational fluid dynamics three-dimensional spatial grid and a 71-species chemical mechanism with propane combustion capability. Simulations were conducted with a simplified fuel mixture containing methane, ethane, and propane in proportions that yield properties similar to fuels distributed throughout much of California now and in recent years (baseline fuel), as well as with two variations of simulated liquefied natural gas blends. A variety of simulations were conducted with baseline fuel to explore the effect of several key parameters on pollutant formation and other flame characteristics. Simulations started with fuel and air issuing through the burner port, igniting, and continuing until the flame was steady with time. Conditions at this point were analyzed to understand fuel, secondary air and reaction product flows, regions of pollutant formation, and exhaust concentrations of carbon monoxide, nitric oxide and formaldehyde. A sensitivity study was conducted, varying the inflow parameters of this baseline gs about real-world operating conditions. Flame properties responded as expected from reactive flow theory. In the simulation, carbon monoxide levels were influenced more by the mixture's inflow velocity than by the gas-to-air ratio in the mixture issuing from the inflow port. Additional simulations were executed at two inflow conditions - high heat release and medium heat release - to examine the impact of replacing the baseline gas with two mixtures representative of liquefied natural gas. Flame properties and pollutant generation rates were very similar among the three fuel mixtures.

  18. District Allocation of Human Resources Utilizing the Evidence Based Model: A Study of One High Achieving School District in Southern California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lane, Amber Marie

    2013-01-01

    This study applies the Gap Analysis Framework to understand the gaps that exist in human resource allocation of one Southern California school district. Once identified, gaps are closed with the reallocation of human resources, according to the Evidenced Based Model, requiring the re-purposing of core classroom teachers, specialists, special…

  19. Different Motile Behaviors of Human Hematopoietic Stem versus Progenitor Cells at the Osteoblastic Niche

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katie Foster

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Despite advances in our understanding of interactions between mouse hematopoietic stem cells (HSCs and their niche, little is known about communication between human HSCs and the microenvironment. Using a xenotransplantation model and intravital imaging, we demonstrate that human HSCs display distinct motile behaviors to their hematopoietic progenitor cell (HPC counterparts, and the same pattern can be found between mouse HSCs and HPCs. HSCs become significantly less motile after transplantation, while progenitor cells remain motile. We show that human HSCs take longer to find their niche than previously expected and suggest that the niche be defined as the position where HSCs stop moving. Intravital imaging is the only technique to determine where in the bone marrow stem cells stop moving, and future analyses should focus on the environment surrounding the HSC at this point.

  20. Lizard assemblage from a sand dune habitat from southeastern Brazil: a niche overlap analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winck, Gisele R; Hatano, Fabio; Vrcibradic, Davor; VAN Sluys, Monique; Rocha, Carlos F D

    2016-01-01

    Communities are structured by interactions of historical and ecological factors, which influence the use of different resources in time and space. We acquired data on time of activity, microhabitat use and diet of a lizard assemblage from a sand dune habitat in a coastal area, southeastern Brazil (Restinga de Jurubatiba). We analyzed the data of niche overlap among species in these three axes (temporal, spatial and trophic) using null models. We found a significant overlap within the trophic niche, whereas the overlap for the other axes did not differ from the expected. Based on this result, we discuss the factors acting on the structure of the local lizard community.

  1. Lizard assemblage from a sand dune habitat from southeastern Brazil: a niche overlap analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    GISELE R. WINCK

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT Communities are structured by interactions of historical and ecological factors, which influence the use of different resources in time and space. We acquired data on time of activity, microhabitat use and diet of a lizard assemblage from a sand dune habitat in a coastal area, southeastern Brazil (Restinga de Jurubatiba. We analyzed the data of niche overlap among species in these three axes (temporal, spatial and trophic using null models. We found a significant overlap within the trophic niche, whereas the overlap for the other axes did not differ from the expected. Based on this result, we discuss the factors acting on the structure of the local lizard community.

  2. Adaptive Management Using Remote Sensing and Ecosystem Modeling in Response to Climate Variability and Invasive Aquatic Plants for the California Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta Water Resource

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bubenheim, D.; Potter, C. S.; Zhang, M.; Madsen, J.

    2017-12-01

    The California Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta is the hub for California's water supply and supports important ecosystem services, agriculture, and communities in Northern and Southern California. Expansion of invasive aquatic plants in the Delta coupled with impacts of changing climate and long-term drought is detrimental to the San Francisco Bay/California Delta complex. NASA Ames Research Center and the USDA-ARS partnered with the State of California to develop science-based, adaptive-management strategies for invasive aquatic plant management in the California Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta. Specific mapping tools developed utilizing satellite and airborne platforms provide regular assessments of population dynamics on a landscape scale and support both strategic planning and operational decision making for resource managers. San Joaquin and Sacramento River watersheds water quality input to the Delta is modeled using the Soil-Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and a modified SWAT tool has been customized to account for unique landscape and management of agricultural water supply and drainage within the Delta. Environmental response models for growth of invasive aquatic weeds are being parameterized and coupled with spatial distribution/biomass density mapping and water quality to study ecosystem response to climate and aquatic plant management practices. On the water validation and operational utilization of these tools by management agencies and how they improve decision making, management effectiveness and efficiency will be discussed. The project combines science, operations, and economics related to integrated management scenarios for aquatic weeds to help land and water resource managers make science-informed decisions regarding management and outcomes.

  3. Mapping the zoonotic niche of Ebola virus disease in Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pigott, David M; Golding, Nick; Mylne, Adrian; Huang, Zhi; Henry, Andrew J; Weiss, Daniel J; Brady, Oliver J; Kraemer, Moritz UG; Smith, David L; Moyes, Catherine L; Bhatt, Samir; Gething, Peter W; Horby, Peter W; Bogoch, Isaac I; Brownstein, John S; Mekaru, Sumiko R; Tatem, Andrew J; Khan, Kamran; Hay, Simon I

    2014-01-01

    Ebola virus disease (EVD) is a complex zoonosis that is highly virulent in humans. The largest recorded outbreak of EVD is ongoing in West Africa, outside of its previously reported and predicted niche. We assembled location data on all recorded zoonotic transmission to humans and Ebola virus infection in bats and primates (1976–2014). Using species distribution models, these occurrence data were paired with environmental covariates to predict a zoonotic transmission niche covering 22 countries across Central and West Africa. Vegetation, elevation, temperature, evapotranspiration, and suspected reservoir bat distributions define this relationship. At-risk areas are inhabited by 22 million people; however, the rarity of human outbreaks emphasises the very low probability of transmission to humans. Increasing population sizes and international connectivity by air since the first detection of EVD in 1976 suggest that the dynamics of human-to-human secondary transmission in contemporary outbreaks will be very different to those of the past. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.04395.001 PMID:25201877

  4. Imaging-Based Screen Identifies Laminin 411 as a Physiologically Relevant Niche Factor with Importance for i-Hep Applications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John Ong

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Summary: Use of hepatocytes derived from induced pluripotent stem cells (i-Heps is limited by their functional differences in comparison with primary cells. Extracellular niche factors likely play a critical role in bridging this gap. Using image-based characterization (high content analysis; HCA of freshly isolated hepatocytes from 17 human donors, we devised and validated an algorithm (Hepatocyte Likeness Index; HLI for comparing the hepatic properties of cells against a physiological gold standard. The HLI was then applied in a targeted screen of extracellular niche factors to identify substrates driving i-Heps closer to the standard. Laminin 411, the top hit, was validated in two additional induced pluripotent stem cell (iPSC lines, primary tissue, and an in vitro model of α1-antitrypsin deficiency. Cumulatively, these data provide a reference method to control and screen for i-Hep differentiation, identify Laminin 411 as a key niche protein, and underscore the importance of combining substrates, soluble factors, and HCA when developing iPSC applications. : Rashid and colleagues demonstrate the utility of a high-throughput imaging platform for identification of physiologically relevant extracellular niche factors to advance i-Heps closer to their primary tissue counterparts. The extracellular matrix (ECM protein screen identified Laminin 411 as an important niche factor facilitating i-Hep-based disease modeling in vitro. Keywords: iPS hepatocytes, extracellular niche, image-based screening, disease modeling, laminin

  5. A Guide for Using the Transient Ground-Water Flow Model of the Death Valley Regional Ground-Water Flow System, Nevada and California

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Joan B. Blainey; Claudia C. Faunt, and Mary C. Hill

    2006-05-16

    This report is a guide for executing numerical simulations with the transient ground-water flow model of the Death Valley regional ground-water flow system, Nevada and California using the U.S. Geological Survey modular finite-difference ground-water flow model, MODFLOW-2000. Model inputs, including observations of hydraulic head, discharge, and boundary flows, are summarized. Modification of the DVRFS transient ground-water model is discussed for two common uses of the Death Valley regional ground-water flow system model: predictive pumping scenarios that extend beyond the end of the model simulation period (1998), and model simulations with only steady-state conditions.

  6. Citizen-science, Geoethics and Human Niche

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bohle, Martin

    2017-04-01

    The anthropogenic biogeosphere or 'human niche' is the intersection of the biogeosphere and the sphere of human activities of social, economic, cultural and political nature. The application case for geoethics, namely "appropriate behaviours and practices, wherever human activities interact with the Earth system" [1], is about niche building. Geoethics is about the conduct of people and geoscientists, respectively their ordinary lifestyles and professional activities. Geoscience professionals notice the diverse economic, social and cultural living conditions of people, and the application cases of geosciences mirror the diversity of the global social sphere. Subsequently it is argued: A) when considering the ethical dimensions of global niche building then geosciences should feature 'citizen geoscience'; and B) when considering the functioning of a knowledge-based society under conditions of anthropogenic global change then 'citizen geoscience' facilitates applying that knowledge base. (A) Regarding 'niche building': The design of production systems and consumption patterns embeds geoscience know-how and relates it to the everyday life. Any citizen's activities purposefully interconnect to the biogeosphere for well-being, care-taking, and reproduction, although habitually without involving a geoscientist in professional capacity. In that implicit manner the everyday behaviours and practices of people influence Earth system dynamic. This renders their inherent geoscience know-how a public good as it makes their ignorance a public risk. A comfortable human niche for billions of people requires a global biogeosphere that is disrupted little by citizens' activities and exposes them to hazards that can be tamed. Quite the reverse, anthropogenic global change will disturb living conditions for many citizen. Much geoscience know-how will have to be deployed to tame disturbances in a socially sustainable manner. Sustainability in turn needs involvement of citizens in

  7. Change of niche in guanaco (Lama guanicoe): the effects of climate change on habitat suitability and lineage conservatism in Chile.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castillo, Andrea G; Alò, Dominique; González, Benito A; Samaniego, Horacio

    2018-01-01

    The main goal of this contribution was to define the ecological niche of the guanaco ( Lama guanicoe ), to describe potential distributional changes, and to assess the relative importance of niche conservatism and divergence processes between the two lineages described for the species ( L.g. cacsilensis and L.g. guanicoe ). We used maximum entropy to model lineage's climate niche from 3,321 locations throughout continental Chile, and developed future niche models under climate change for two extreme greenhouse gas emission scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). We evaluated changes of the environmental niche and future distribution of the largest mammal in the Southern Cone of South America. Evaluation of niche conservatism and divergence were based on identity and background similarity tests. We show that: (a) the current geographic distribution of lineages is associated with different climatic requirements that are related to the geographic areas where these lineages are located; (b) future distribution models predict a decrease in the distribution surface under both scenarios; (c) a 3% decrease of areal protection is expected if the current distribution of protected areas is maintained, and this is expected to occur at the expense of a large reduction of high quality habitats under the best scenario; (d) current and future distribution ranges of guanaco mostly adhere to phylogenetic niche divergence hypotheses between lineages. Associating environmental variables with species ecological niche seems to be an important aspect of unveiling the particularities of, both evolutionary patterns and ecological features that species face in a changing environment. We report specific descriptions of how these patterns may play out under the most extreme climate change predictions and provide a grim outlook of the future potential distribution of guanaco in Chile. From an ecological perspective, while a slightly smaller distribution area is expected, this may come with an important

  8. Application of a new model for groundwater age distributions: Modeling and isotopic analysis of artificial recharge in the Rialto-Colton basin, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ginn, T.R.; Woolfenden, L.

    2002-01-01

    A project for modeling and isotopic analysis of artificial recharge in the Rialto-Colton basin aquifer in California, is discussed. The Rialto-Colton aquifer has been divided into four primary and significant flowpaths following the general direction of groundwater flow from NW to SE. The introductory investigation include sophisticated chemical reaction modeling, with highly simplified flow path simulation. A comprehensive reactive transport model with the established set of geochemical reactions over the whole aquifer will also be developed for treating both reactions and transport realistically. This will be completed by making use of HBGC123D implemented with isotopic calculation step to compute Carbon-14 (C14) and stable Carbon-13 (C13) contents of the water. Computed carbon contents will also be calibrated with the measured carbon contents for assessment of the amount of imported recharge into the Linden pond.

  9. Rainwater Harvesting and Social Networks: Visualising Interactions for Niche Governance, Resilience and Sustainability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sarah Ward

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Visualising interactions across urban water systems to explore transition and change processes requires the development of methods and models at different scales. This paper contributes a model representing the network interactions of rainwater harvesting (RWH infrastructure innovators and other organisations in the UK RWH niche to identify how resilience and sustainability feature within niche governance in practice. The RWH network interaction model was constructed using a modified participatory social network analysis (SNA. The SNA was further analysed through the application of a two-part analytical framework based on niche management and the safe, resilient and sustainable (‘Safe and SuRe’ framework. Weak interactions between some RWH infrastructure innovators and other organisations highlighted reliance on a limited number of persuaders to influence the regime and landscape, which were underrepresented. Features from niche creation and management were exhibited by the RWH network interaction model, though some observed characteristics were not represented. Additional Safe and SuRe features were identified covering diverse innovation, responsivity, no protection, unconverged expectations, primary influencers, polycentric or adaptive governance and multiple learning-types. These features enable RWH infrastructure innovators and other organisations to reflect on improving resilience and sustainability, though further research in other sectors would be useful to verify and validate observation of the seven features.

  10. Engineering Hydrogel Microenvironments to Recapitulate the Stem Cell Niche.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Madl, Christopher M; Heilshorn, Sarah C

    2018-06-04

    Stem cells are a powerful resource for many applications including regenerative medicine, patient-specific disease modeling, and toxicology screening. However, eliciting the desired behavior from stem cells, such as expansion in a naïve state or differentiation into a particular mature lineage, remains challenging. Drawing inspiration from the native stem cell niche, hydrogel platforms have been developed to regulate stem cell fate by controlling microenvironmental parameters including matrix mechanics, degradability, cell-adhesive ligand presentation, local microstructure, and cell-cell interactions. We survey techniques for modulating hydrogel properties and review the effects of microenvironmental parameters on maintaining stemness and controlling differentiation for a variety of stem cell types. Looking forward, we envision future hydrogel designs spanning a spectrum of complexity, ranging from simple, fully defined materials for industrial expansion of stem cells to complex, biomimetic systems for organotypic cell culture models.

  11. Dynamic modeling of organophosphate pesticide load in surface water in the northern San Joaquin Valley watershed of California

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Luo Yuzhou [Department of Land, Air and Water Resources, University of California, Davis, CA 95616 (United States); Institute of Watershed Science and Environmental Ecology, Wenzhou Medical College, Wenzhou, 325000 (China); Zhang Xuyang [Department of Land, Air and Water Resources, University of California, Davis, CA 95616 (United States); Liu Xingmei [Department of Land, Air and Water Resources, University of California, Davis, CA 95616 (United States); Institute of Soil, Water and Environmental Science, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310029 (China); Ficklin, Darren [Department of Land, Air and Water Resources, University of California, Davis, CA 95616 (United States); Zhang Minghua [Department of Land, Air and Water Resources, University of California, Davis, CA 95616 (United States); Institute of Watershed Science and Environmental Ecology, Wenzhou Medical College, Wenzhou, 325000 (China)], E-mail: mhzhang@ucdavis.edu

    2008-12-15

    The hydrology, sediment, and pesticide transport components of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) were evaluated on the northern San Joaquin Valley watershed of California. The Nash-Sutcliffe coefficients for monthly stream flow and sediment load ranged from 0.49 to 0.99 over the watershed during the study period of 1992-2005. The calibrated SWAT model was applied to simulate fate and transport processes of two organophosphate pesticides of diazinon and chlorpyrifos at watershed scale. The model generated satisfactory predictions of dissolved pesticide loads relative to the monitoring data. The model also showed great success in capturing spatial patterns of dissolved diazinon and chlorpyrifos loads according to the soil properties and landscape morphology over the large agricultural watershed. This study indicated that curve number was the major factor influencing the hydrology while pesticide fate and transport were mainly affected by surface runoff and pesticide application and in the study area. - Major factors governing the instream loads of organophosphate pesticides are magnitude and timing of surface runoff and pesticide application.

  12. Dynamic modeling of organophosphate pesticide load in surface water in the northern San Joaquin Valley watershed of California

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Luo Yuzhou; Zhang Xuyang; Liu Xingmei; Ficklin, Darren; Zhang Minghua

    2008-01-01

    The hydrology, sediment, and pesticide transport components of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) were evaluated on the northern San Joaquin Valley watershed of California. The Nash-Sutcliffe coefficients for monthly stream flow and sediment load ranged from 0.49 to 0.99 over the watershed during the study period of 1992-2005. The calibrated SWAT model was applied to simulate fate and transport processes of two organophosphate pesticides of diazinon and chlorpyrifos at watershed scale. The model generated satisfactory predictions of dissolved pesticide loads relative to the monitoring data. The model also showed great success in capturing spatial patterns of dissolved diazinon and chlorpyrifos loads according to the soil properties and landscape morphology over the large agricultural watershed. This study indicated that curve number was the major factor influencing the hydrology while pesticide fate and transport were mainly affected by surface runoff and pesticide application and in the study area. - Major factors governing the instream loads of organophosphate pesticides are magnitude and timing of surface runoff and pesticide application

  13. High-resolution model for estimating the economic and policy implications of agricultural soil salinization in California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Welle, Paul D.; Mauter, Meagan S.

    2017-09-01

    This work introduces a generalizable approach for estimating the field-scale agricultural yield losses due to soil salinization. When integrated with regional data on crop yields and prices, this model provides high-resolution estimates for revenue losses over large agricultural regions. These methods account for the uncertainty inherent in model inputs derived from satellites, experimental field data, and interpreted model results. We apply this method to estimate the effect of soil salinity on agricultural outputs in California, performing the analysis with both high-resolution (i.e. field scale) and low-resolution (i.e. county-scale) data sources to highlight the importance of spatial resolution in agricultural analysis. We estimate that soil salinity reduced agricultural revenues by 3.7 billion (1.7-7.0 billion) in 2014, amounting to 8.0 million tons of lost production relative to soil salinities below the crop-specific thresholds. When using low-resolution data sources, we find that the costs of salinization are underestimated by a factor of three. These results highlight the need for high-resolution data in agro-environmental assessment as well as the challenges associated with their integration.

  14. A new seamless, high-resolution digital elevation model of the San Francisco Bay-Delta Estuary, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fregoso, Theresa A.; Wang, Rueen-Fang; Ateljevich, Eli; Jaffe, Bruce E.

    2017-06-14

    Climate change, sea-level rise, and human development have contributed to the changing geomorphology of the San Francisco Bay - Delta (Bay-Delta) Estuary system. The need to predict scenarios of change led to the development of a new seamless, high-resolution digital elevation model (DEM) of the Bay – Delta that can be used by modelers attempting to understand potential future changes to the estuary system. This report details the three phases of the creation of this DEM. The first phase took a bathymetric-only DEM created in 2005 by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), refined it with additional data, and identified areas that would benefit from new surveys. The second phase began a USGS collaboration with the California Department of Water Resources (DWR) that updated a 2012 DWR seamless bathymetric/topographic DEM of the Bay-Delta with input from the USGS and modifications to fit the specific needs of USGS modelers. The third phase took the work from phase 2 and expanded the coverage area in the north to include the Yolo Bypass up to the Fremont Weir, the Sacramento River up to Knights Landing, and the American River up to the Nimbus Dam, and added back in the elevations for interior islands. The constant evolution of the Bay-Delta will require continuous updates to the DEM of the Delta, and there still are areas with older data that would benefit from modern surveys. As a result, DWR plans to continue updating the DEM.

  15. RESOLVING NEIGHBORHOOD-SCALE AIR TOXICS MODELING: A CASE STUDY IN WILMINGTON, CALIFORNIA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Air quality modeling is useful for characterizing exposures to air pollutants. While models typically provide results on regional scales, there is a need for refined modeling approaches capable of resolving concentrations on the scale of tens of meters, across modeling domains 1...

  16. Market niche analysis in the casino gaming industry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dandurand, L

    1990-03-01

    This article discusses the nature of market niche analysis in the casino gaming industry. It presents four approaches for conducting market niche analysis. An an example of one approach, the Las Vegas Visitor Profile Study is used to identify a premium niche in the Las Vegas Slot Target Market. A detailed examination of the premium niche profile provides a description of the typical premium slot player. The description of the typical premium player leads to hypotheses regarding needs (the unique preference set) of the premium player. An analysis of the unique preference set suggests an appropriate enhanced marketing program.

  17. Marine organism concentrations, carbonate chemistry variables, and nutrient concentrations from Atlantis ecosystem model simulation output in the California Current from 2013-01-01 to 2053-12-31 to understand vulnerability of California current food webs and economics to ocean acidification (NCEI Accession 0131198)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This archival package contains the model output of a study to evaluate likely economic and ecological outcomes of ocean acidification in the California Current....

  18. The extraocular muscle stem cell niche is resistant to ageing and disease

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luigi eFormicola

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Specific muscles are spared in many degenerative myopathies. Most notably, the extraocular muscles (EOMs do not show clinical signs of late stage myopathies including the accumulation of fibrosis and fat. It has been proposed that an altered stem cell niche underlies the resistance of EOMs in these pathologies, however, to date, no reports have provided a detailed characterization of the EOM stem cell niche. PW1/Peg3 is expressed in progenitor cells in all adult tissues including satellite cells and a subset of interstitial non-satellite cell progenitors in muscle. These PW1-positive interstitial cells (PICs include a fibroadipogenic progenitor population (FAPs that give rise to fat and fibrosis in late stage myopathies. PICs/FAPs are mobilized following injury and FAPs exert a promyogenic role upon myoblasts in vitro but require the presence of a minimal population of satellite cells in vivo. We and others recently described that FAPs express promyogenic factors while satellite cells express antimyogenic factors suggesting that PICs/FAPs act as support niche cells in skeletal muscle through paracrine interactions. We analyzed the EOM stem cell niche in young adult and aged wild-type mice and found that the balance between PICs and satellite cells within the EOM stem cell niche is maintained throughout life. Moreover, in the adult mdx mouse model for Duchenne muscular dystrophy, the EOM stem cell niche is unperturbed compared to normal mice, in contrast to Tibialis Anterior (TA muscle, which displays signs of ongoing degeneration/regeneration. Regenerating mdx TA shows increased levels of both PICs and satellite cells, comparable to normal unaffected EOMs. We propose that the increase in PICs that we observe in normal EOMs contributes to preserving the integrity of the myofibers and satellite cells. Our data suggest that molecular cues regulating muscle regeneration are intrinsic properties of EOMs.

  19. Intraspecific ecological niche divergence and reproductive shifts foster cytotype displacement and provide ecological opportunity to polyploids.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karunarathne, Piyal; Schedler, Mara; Martínez, Eric J; Honfi, Ana I; Novichkova, Anastasiia; Hojsgaard, Diego

    2018-05-11

    Niche divergence between polyploids and their lower ploidy progenitors is one of the primary mechanisms fostering polyploid establishment and adaptive divergence. However, within-species chromosomal and reproductive variability have usually been neglected in community ecology and biodiversity analyses even though they have been recognized to play a role in the adaptive diversification of lineages. We used Paspalum intermedium, a grass species with diverging genetic systems (diploidy vs. autopolyploidy, allogamy vs. autogamy and sexuality vs. apomixis), to recognize the causality of biogeographic patterns, adaptation and ecological flexibility of cytotypes. Chromosome counts and flow cytometry were used to characterize within-species genetic systems diversity. Environmental niche modelling was used to evaluate intraspecific ecological attributes associated with environmental and climatic factors and to assess correlations among ploidy, reproductive modes and ecological conditions ruling species' population dynamics, range expansion, adaptation and evolutionary history. Two dominant cytotypes non-randomly distributed along local and regional geographical scales displayed niche differentiation, a directional shift in niche optima and signs of disruptive selection on ploidy-related ecological aptitudes for the exploitation of environmental resources. Ecologically specialized allogamous sexual diploids were found in northern areas associated with higher temperature, humidity and productivity, while generalist autogamous apomictic tetraploids occurred in southern areas, occupying colder and less productive environments. Four localities with a documented shift in ploidy and four mixed populations in a zone of ecological transition revealed an uneven replacement between cytotypes. Polyploidy and contrasting reproductive traits between cytotypes have promoted shifts in niche optima, and increased ecological tolerance and niche divergence. Ecologically specialized diploids

  20. Bifurcation into functional niches in adaptation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, Justin S; Adami, Christoph

    2004-01-01

    One of the central questions in evolutionary biology concerns the dynamics of adaptation and diversification. This issue can be addressed experimentally if replicate populations adapting to identical environments can be investigated in detail. We have studied 501 such replicas using digital organisms adapting to at least two fundamentally different functional niches (survival strategies) present in the same environment: one in which fast replication is the way to live, and another where exploitation of the environment's complexity leads to complex organisms with longer life spans and smaller replication rates. While these two modes of survival are closely analogous to those expected to emerge in so-called r and K selection scenarios respectively, the bifurcation of evolutionary histories according to these functional niches occurs in identical environments, under identical selective pressures. We find that the branching occurs early, and leads to drastic phenotypic differences (in fitness, sequence length, and gestation time) that are permanent and irreversible. This study confirms an earlier experimental effort using microorganisms, in that diversification can be understood at least in part in terms of bifurcations on saddle points leading to peak shifts, as in the picture drawn by Sewall Wright.

  1. Plug-in hybrid vehicle GHG impacts in California: Integrating consumer-informed recharge profiles with an electricity-dispatch model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Axsen, Jonn; Kurani, Kenneth S.; McCarthy, Ryan; Yang, Christopher

    2011-01-01

    This paper explores how Plug-in Hybrid Vehicles (PHEVs) may reduce source-to-wheel Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions from passenger vehicles. The two primary advances are the incorporation of (1) explicit measures of consumer interest in and potential use of different types of PHEVs and (2) a model of the California electricity grid capable of differentiating hourly and seasonal GHG emissions by generation source. We construct PHEV emissions scenarios to address inherent relationships between vehicle design, driving and recharging behaviors, seasonal and time-of-day variation in GHG-intensity of electricity, and total GHG emissions. A sample of 877 California new vehicle buyers provide data on driving, time of day recharge access, and PHEV design interests. The elicited data differ substantially from the assumptions used in previous analyses. We construct electricity demand profiles scaled to one million PHEVs and input them into an hourly California electricity supply model to simulate GHG emissions. Compared to conventional vehicles, consumer-designed PHEVs cut marginal (incremental) GHG emissions by more than one-third in current California energy scenarios and by one-quarter in future energy scenarios-reductions similar to those simulated for all-electric PHEV designs. Across the emissions scenarios, long-term GHG reductions depends on reducing the carbon intensity of the grid. - Research highlights: → We estimate California Plug-in Hybrid Vehicle (PHEV) GHGs using consumer data and an electricity supply model. → Consumer-designed (mostly 'blended') PHEVs can reduce GHG emissions compared to conventional vehicles. → These PHEVs can also reduce GHG emissions relative to 'all-electric' PHEV designs. → 'All-electric' designs may further reduce GHG emissions as electricity carbon intensity falls. → Ranking of GHG savings from off-peak versus daytime charging scenarios depends on electricity carbon intensity.

  2. Health benefits of reducing sugar-sweetened beverage intake in high risk populations of California: results from the cardiovascular disease (CVD policy model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tekeshe A Mekonnen

    Full Text Available Consumption of sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB has risen over the past two decades, with over 10 million Californians drinking one or more SSB per day. High SSB intake is associated with risk of type 2 diabetes, obesity, hypertension, and coronary heart disease (CHD. Reduction of SSB intake and the potential impact on health outcomes in California and among racial, ethnic, and low-income sub-groups has not been quantified.We projected the impact of reduced SSB consumption on health outcomes among all Californians and California subpopulations from 2013 to 2022. We used the CVD Policy Model - CA, an established computer simulation of diabetes and heart disease adapted to California. We modeled a reduction in SSB intake by 10-20% as has been projected to result from proposed penny-per-ounce excise tax on SSB and modeled varying effects of this reduction on health parameters including body mass index, blood pressure, and diabetes risk. We projected avoided cases of diabetes and CHD, and associated health care cost savings in 2012 US dollars.Over the next decade, a 10-20% SSB consumption reduction is projected to result in a 1.8-3.4% decline in the new cases of diabetes and an additional drop of 0.5-1% in incident CHD cases and 0.5-0.9% in total myocardial infarctions. The greatest reductions are expected in African Americans, Mexican Americans, and those with limited income regardless of race and ethnicity. This reduction in SSB consumption is projected to yield $320-620 million in medical cost savings associated with diabetes cases averted and an additional savings of $14-27 million in diabetes-related CHD costs avoided.A reduction of SSB consumption could yield substantial population health benefits and cost savings for California. In particular, racial, ethnic, and low-income subgroups of California could reap the greatest health benefits.

  3. Users' guide to system dynamics model describing Coho salmon survival in Olema Creek, Point Reyes National Seashore, Marin County, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woodward, Andrea; Torregrosa, Alicia; Madej, Mary Ann; Reichmuth, Michael; Fong, Darren

    2014-01-01

    The system dynamics model described in this report is the result of a collaboration between U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) scientists and National Park Service (NPS) San Francisco Bay Area Network (SFAN) staff, whose goal was to develop a methodology to integrate inventory and monitoring data to better understand ecosystem dynamics and trends using salmon in Olema Creek, Marin County, California, as an example case. The SFAN began monitoring multiple life stages of coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch) in Olema Creek during 2003 (Carlisle and others, 2013), building on previous monitoring of spawning fish and redds. They initiated water-quality and habitat monitoring, and had access to flow and weather data from other sources. This system dynamics model of the freshwater portion of the coho salmon life cycle in Olema Creek integrated 8 years of existing monitoring data, literature values, and expert opinion to investigate potential factors limiting survival and production, identify data gaps, and improve monitoring and restoration prescriptions. A system dynamics model is particularly effective when (1) data are insufficient in time series length and/or measured parameters for a statistical or mechanistic model, and (2) the model must be easily accessible by users who are not modelers. These characteristics helped us meet the following overarching goals for this model: Summarize and synthesize NPS monitoring data with data and information from other sources to describe factors and processes affecting freshwater survival of coho salmon in Olema Creek. Provide a model that can be easily manipulated to experiment with alternative values of model parameters and novel scenarios of environmental drivers. Although the model describes the ecological dynamics of Olema Creek, these dynamics are structurally similar to numerous other coastal streams along the California coast that also contain anadromous fish populations. The model developed for Olema can be used, at least as a

  4. A prototype operational earthquake loss model for California based on UCERF3-ETAS – A first look at valuation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Field, Edward; Porter, Keith; Milner, Kevn

    2017-01-01

    We present a prototype operational loss model based on UCERF3-ETAS, which is the third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast with an Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) component. As such, UCERF3-ETAS represents the first earthquake forecast to relax fault segmentation assumptions and to include multi-fault ruptures, elastic-rebound, and spatiotemporal clustering, all of which seem important for generating realistic and useful aftershock statistics. UCERF3-ETAS is nevertheless an approximation of the system, however, so usefulness will vary and potential value needs to be ascertained in the context of each application. We examine this question with respect to statewide loss estimates, exemplifying how risk can be elevated by orders of magnitude due to triggered events following various scenario earthquakes. Two important considerations are the probability gains, relative to loss likelihoods in the absence of main shocks, and the rapid decay of gains with time. Significant uncertainties and model limitations remain, so we hope this paper will inspire similar analyses with respect to other risk metrics to help ascertain whether operationalization of UCERF3-ETAS would be worth the considerable resources required.

  5. Vector wind and vector wind shear models 0 to 27 km altitude for Cape Kennedy, Florida, and Vandenberg AFB, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, O. E.

    1976-01-01

    The techniques are presented to derive several statistical wind models. The techniques are from the properties of the multivariate normal probability function. Assuming that the winds can be considered as bivariate normally distributed, then (1) the wind components and conditional wind components are univariate normally distributed, (2) the wind speed is Rayleigh distributed, (3) the conditional distribution of wind speed given a wind direction is Rayleigh distributed, and (4) the frequency of wind direction can be derived. All of these distributions are derived from the 5-sample parameter of wind for the bivariate normal distribution. By further assuming that the winds at two altitudes are quadravariate normally distributed, then the vector wind shear is bivariate normally distributed and the modulus of the vector wind shear is Rayleigh distributed. The conditional probability of wind component shears given a wind component is normally distributed. Examples of these and other properties of the multivariate normal probability distribution function as applied to Cape Kennedy, Florida, and Vandenberg AFB, California, wind data samples are given. A technique to develop a synthetic vector wind profile model of interest to aerospace vehicle applications is presented.

  6. Three-dimensional electrical resistivity model of the hydrothermal system in Long Valley Caldera, California, from magnetotellurics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peacock, Jared R.; Mangan, Margaret T.; McPhee, Darcy K.; Wannamaker, Phil E.

    2016-01-01

    Though shallow flow of hydrothermal fluids in Long Valley Caldera, California, has been well studied, neither the hydrothermal source reservoir nor heat source has been well characterized. Here a grid of magnetotelluric data were collected around the Long Valley volcanic system and modeled in 3-D. The preferred electrical resistivity model suggests that the source reservoir is a narrow east-west elongated body 4 km below the west moat. The heat source could be a zone of 2–5% partial melt 8 km below Deer Mountain. Additionally, a collection of hypersaline fluids, not connected to the shallow hydrothermal system, is found 3 km below the medial graben, which could originate from a zone of 5–10% partial melt 8 km below the south moat. Below Mammoth Mountain is a 3 km thick isolated body containing fluids and gases originating from an 8 km deep zone of 5–10% basaltic partial melt.

  7. Source characterization and exposure modeling of gas-phase polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) concentrations in Southern California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Masri, Shahir; Li, Lianfa; Dang, Andy; Chung, Judith H.; Chen, Jiu-Chiuan; Fan, Zhi-Hua (Tina); Wu, Jun

    2018-03-01

    Airborne exposures to polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are associated with adverse health outcomes. Because personal air measurements of PAHs are labor intensive and costly, spatial PAH exposure models are useful for epidemiological studies. However, few studies provide adequate spatial coverage to reflect intra-urban variability of ambient PAHs. In this study, we collected 39-40 weekly gas-phase PAH samples in southern California twice in summer and twice in winter, 2009, in order to characterize PAH source contributions and develop spatial models that can estimate gas-phase PAH concentrations at a high resolution. A spatial mixed regression model was constructed, including such variables as roadway, traffic, land-use, vegetation index, commercial cooking facilities, meteorology, and population density. Cross validation of the model resulted in an R2 of 0.66 for summer and 0.77 for winter. Results showed higher total PAH concentrations in winter. Pyrogenic sources, such as fossil fuels and diesel exhaust, were the most dominant contributors to total PAHs. PAH sources varied by season, with a higher fossil fuel and wood burning contribution in winter. Spatial autocorrelation accounted for a substantial amount of the variance in total PAH concentrations for both winter (56%) and summer (19%). In summer, other key variables explaining the variance included meteorological factors (9%), population density (15%), and roadway length (21%). In winter, the variance was also explained by traffic density (16%). In this study, source characterization confirmed the dominance of traffic and other fossil fuel sources to total measured gas-phase PAH concentrations while a spatial exposure model identified key predictors of PAH concentrations. Gas-phase PAH source characterization and exposure estimation is of high utility to epidemiologist and policy makers interested in understanding the health impacts of gas-phase PAHs and strategies to reduce emissions.

  8. Integrated hydrologic model of Pajaro Valley, Santa Cruz and Monterey Counties, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanson, Randall T.; Schmid, Wolfgang; Faunt, Claudia C.; Lear, Jonathan; Lockwood, Brian

    2014-01-01

    Increasing population, agricultural development (including shifts to more water-intensive crops), and climate variability are placing increasingly larger demands on available groundwater resources in the Pajaro Valley, one of the most productive agricultural regions in the world. This study provided a refined conceptual model, geohydrologic framework, and integrated hydrologic model of the Pajaro Valley. The goal of this study was to produce a model capable of being accurate at scales relevant to water management decisions that are being considered in the revision and updates to the Basin Management Plan (BMP). The Pajaro Valley Hydrologic Model (PVHM) was designed to reproduce the most important natural and human components of the hydrologic system and related climatic factors, permitting an accurate assessment of groundwater conditions and processes that can inform the new BMP and help to improve planning for long-term sustainability of water resources. Model development included a revision of the conceptual model of the flow system, reevaluation of the previous model transformed into MODFLOW, implementation of the new geohydrologic model and conceptual model, and calibration of the transient hydrologic model.

  9. Adaptive Management Using Remote Sensing and Ecosystem Modeling in Response to Climate Variability and Invasive Aquatic Plants for the California Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta Water Resource

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bubenheim, David; Potter, Christopher; Zhang, Minghua; Madsen, John

    2017-01-01

    The California Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta is the hub for California's water supply and supports important ecosystem services, agriculture, and communities in Northern to Southern California. Expansion of invasive aquatic plants in the Delta coupled with impacts of changing climate and long-term drought is detrimental to the San Francisco Bay/California Delta complex. NASA Ames Research Center and the USDA-ARS partnered with the State of California to develop science-based, adaptive-management strategies for invasive aquatic plant in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta. Specific mapping tools developed utilizing satellite and airborne platforms provide regular assessments of population dynamics on a landscape scale and support both strategic planning and operational decision making for resource managers. San Joaquin and Sacramento River watersheds water quality input to the Delta is modeled using the Soil-Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and a modified SWAT tool has been customized to account for unique landscape and management of agricultural water supply and drainage within the Delta. Environmental response models for growth of invasive aquatic weeds are being parameterized and coupled with spatial distribution/biomass density mapping and water quality to study ecosystem response to climate and aquatic plant management practices. On the water validation and operational utilization of these tools by management agencies and how they are improving decision making, management effectiveness and efficiency will be discussed. The project combines science, operations, and economics related to integrated management scenarios for aquatic weeds to help land and water resource managers make science-informed decisions regarding management and outcomes.

  10. Occupy the Financial Niche – Saturation and Crisis (discontinuous decisions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ionut PURICA

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available The model presented is proposing an approach that could verify the nonlinear behaviour during a crisis, such that to quantify and predict potential discontinuous behaviour. In this case, the crisis behaviour associated with financial funds reallocation among various credit instruments, described as memes with the sense of Dawkins, is shown to be of discontinuous nature stemming from a logistic penetration in the financial behaviour niche. Actually the logistic penetration is typical in creating cyclic behaviour of economic structures as shown by Marchetti and others from IIASA. A Fokker-Planck equation description results in a stationary solution having a bifurcation like solution with evolution trajectories on a ‘cusp’ type catastrophe that may describe discontinuous decision behaviour

  11. Evolution under changing climates: climatic niche stasis despite rapid evolution in a non-native plant.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alexander, Jake M

    2013-09-22

    A topic of great current interest is the capacity of populations to adapt genetically to rapidly changing climates, for example by evolving the timing of life-history events, but this is challenging to address experimentally. I use a plant invasion as a model system to tackle this question by combining molecular markers, a common garden experiment and climatic niche modelling. This approach reveals that non-native Lactuca serriola originates primarily from Europe, a climatic subset of its native range, with low rates of admixture from Asia. It has rapidly refilled its climatic niche in the new range, associated with the evolution of flowering phenology to produce clines along climate gradients that mirror those across the native range. Consequently, some non-native plants have evolved development times and grow under climates more extreme than those found in Europe, but not among populations from the native range as a whole. This suggests that many plant populations can adapt rapidly to changed climatic conditions that are already within the climatic niche space occupied by the species elsewhere in its range, but that evolution to conditions outside of this range is more difficult. These findings can also help to explain the prevalence of niche conservatism among non-native species.

  12. Unveiling current Guanaco distribution in chile based upon niche structure of phylogeographic lineages: Andean puna to subpolar forests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    González, Benito A; Samaniego, Horacio; Marín, Juan Carlos; Estades, Cristián F

    2013-01-01

    Niche description and differentiation at broad geographic scales have been recent major topics in ecology and evolution. Describing the environmental niche structure of sister taxa with known evolutionary trajectories stands out as a useful exercise in understanding niche requirements. Here we model the environmental niche structure and distribution of the recently resolved phylogeography of guanaco (Lama guanicoe) lineages on the western slope of the southern Andes. Using a maximum entropy framework, field data, and information on climate, topography, human density, and vegetation cover, we identify differences between the two subspecies (L.g.cacsilensis, L.g.guanicoe) and their intermediate-hybrid lineage, that most likely determine the distribution of this species. While aridity seems to be a major factor influencing the distribution at the species-level (annual precipitation ecological and/or evolutionary processes are shaping the niche of guanacos in Chile, producing discrepancies when comparing range distribution at the species-level (81,756 km(2)) with lineages-level (65,321 km(2)). The subspecies-specific description of niche structure is provided here based upon detailed spatial distribution of the lineages of guanacos in Chile. Such description provides a scientific tool to further develop large scale plans for habitat conservation and preservation of intraspecific genetic variability for this far ranging South American camelid, which inhabits a diversity of ecoregion types from Andean puna to subpolar forests.

  13. Manipulation of signaling thresholds in "engineered stem cell niches" identifies design criteria for pluripotent stem cell screens.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raheem Peerani

    Full Text Available In vivo, stem cell fate is regulated by local microenvironmental parameters. Governing parameters in this stem cell niche include soluble factors, extra-cellular matrix, and cell-cell interactions. The complexity of this in vivo niche limits analyses into how individual niche parameters regulate stem cell fate. Herein we use mouse embryonic stem cells (mESC and micro-contact printing (microCP to investigate how niche size controls endogenous signaling thresholds. microCP is used to restrict colony diameter, separation, and degree of clustering. We show, for the first time, spatial control over the activation of the Janus kinase/signal transducer and activator of transcription pathway (Jak-Stat. The functional consequences of this niche-size-dependent signaling control are confirmed by demonstrating that direct and indirect transcriptional targets of Stat3, including members of the Jak-Stat pathway and pluripotency-associated genes, are regulated by colony size. Modeling results and empirical observations demonstrate that colonies less than 100 microm in diameter are too small to maximize endogenous Stat3 activation and that colonies separated by more than 400 microm can be considered independent from each other. These results define parameter boundaries for the use of ESCs in screening studies, demonstrate the importance of context in stem cell responsiveness to exogenous cues, and suggest that niche size is an important parameter in stem cell fate control.

  14. A hybrid machine learning model to estimate nitrate contamination of production zone groundwater in the Central Valley, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ransom, K.; Nolan, B. T.; Faunt, C. C.; Bell, A.; Gronberg, J.; Traum, J.; Wheeler, D. C.; Rosecrans, C.; Belitz, K.; Eberts, S.; Harter, T.

    2016-12-01

    A hybrid, non-linear, machine learning statistical model was developed within a statistical learning framework to predict nitrate contamination of groundwater to depths of approximately 500 m below ground surface in the Central Valley, California. A database of 213 predictor variables representing well characteristics, historical and current field and county scale nitrogen mass balance, historical and current landuse, oxidation/reduction conditions, groundwater flow, climate, soil characteristics, depth to groundwater, and groundwater age were assigned to over 6,000 private supply and public supply wells measured previously for nitrate and located throughout the study area. The machine learning method, gradient boosting machine (GBM) was used to screen predictor variables and rank them in order of importance in relation to the groundwater nitrate measurements. The top five most important predictor variables included oxidation/reduction characteristics, historical field scale nitrogen mass balance, climate, and depth to 60 year old water. Twenty-two variables were selected for the final model and final model errors for log-transformed hold-out data were R squared of 0.45 and root mean square error (RMSE) of 1.124. Modeled mean groundwater age was tested separately for error improvement in the model and when included decreased model RMSE by 0.5% compared to the same model without age and by 0.20% compared to the model with all 213 variables. 1D and 2D partial plots were examined to determine how variables behave individually and interact in the model. Some variables behaved as expected: log nitrate decreased with increasing probability of anoxic conditions and depth to 60 year old water, generally decreased with increasing natural landuse surrounding wells and increasing mean groundwater age, generally increased with increased minimum depth to high water table and with increased base flow index value. Other variables exhibited much more erratic or noisy behavior in

  15. Physical-Biological-Optics Model Development and Simulation for the Pacific Ocean and Monterey Bay, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-09-30

    distribution of underwater light field that can substantially affect phytoplankton photosynthesis and shortwave radiation near the surface. To...from Chai et al. (2002) was modified to include 31 state variables (Figure 1). With these new variables, the model can simulate photosynthesis ...improved by adding the dissolved pool and bacterial dynamics in the model. CDOC modeled as a colored byproduct of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) is

  16. Invasion of Old World Phragmites australis in the New World: precipitation and temperature patterns combined with human influences redesign the invasive niche

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Guo, Wen-Yong; Lambertini, Carla; Li, Xiu-Zhen

    2013-01-01

    niches. We suggest that an increase in precipitation in the 20(th) century, global warming and human-made habitats have shaped the invasive niches of the two lineages in the New World. However, as the invasions are on-going and human and natural disturbances occur concomitantly, the future distribution....... australis (Haplotype M and Med) in both their native and introduced ranges using environmental niche models (ENMs) to assess (i) whether a niche shift accompanied the invasions in the New World; (ii) the role of biologically relevant climatic variables and human influence in the process of invasion...... for temperature fluctuations and increased precipitation. The introduced Med lineage has enlarged its original subtropical niche to the tropics-subtropics, invading regions with a high annual mean temperature (> c. 10 °C) and high precipitation in the driest period. Human influence is an important factor for both...

  17. A Population Consequence of Acoustic Disturbance Model for Cuviers beaked whale (Ziphius cavirostris) in Southern California

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-09-30

    two sources. The energetics model that will underpin both PCoD models for Md and Zc has also been published (New et al 2013). The full PCoD model...to Zc on SCORE. We will also be able to use the simplified PCoD model for beaked whales currently being developed under the ONR-funded project...34Using an interim PCoD protocol to assess the effects of disturbance associated with US Navy exercises on marine mammal populations”. This project will

  18. Variability of indicator values for ozone production sensitivity: a model study in Switzerland and San Joaquin Valley (California)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Andreani-Aksoyoglu, S.; Keller, J.; Prevot, A.S.H.; Chenghsuan Lu; Chang, J.S.

    2001-01-01

    The threshold values of indicator species and ratios delineating the transition between NO x and VOC sensitivity of ozone formation are assumed to be universal by various investigators. However, our previous studies suggested that threshold values might vary according to the locations and conditions. In this study, threshold values derived from various model simulations at two different locations (the area of Switzerland by UAM Model and San Joaquin Valley of Central California by SAQM Model) are examined using a new approach for defining NO x and VOC sensitive regimes. Possible definitions for the distinction of NO x and VOC sensitive ozone production regimes are given. The dependence of the threshold values for indicators and indicator ratios such as NO y , O 3 /NO z , HCHO/NO y , and H 2 O 2 /HNO 3 on the definition of NO x and VOC sensitivity is discussed. Then the variations of threshold values under low emission conditions and in two different days are examined in both areas to check whether the models respond consistently to changes in environmental conditions. In both cases, threshold values are shifted similarly when emissions are reduced. Changes in the wind fields and aging of the photochemical oxidants seem to cause the day-to-day variation of the threshold values. O 3 /NO z and HCHO/NO y indicators are predicted to be unsatisfactory to separate the NO x and VOC sensitive regimes. Although NO y and H 2 O 2 /HNO 3 provide a good separation of the two regimes, threshold values are affected by changes in the environmental conditions studied in this work. (author)

  19. Photochemical model evaluation of 2013 California wild fire air quality impacts using surface, aircraft, and satellite data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, K R; Woody, M C; Valin, L; Szykman, J; Yates, E L; Iraci, L T; Choi, H D; Soja, A J; Koplitz, S N; Zhou, L; Campuzano-Jost, Pedro; Jimenez, Jose L; Hair, J W

    2018-10-01

    The Rim Fire was one of the largest wildfires in California history, burning over 250,000 acres during August and September 2013 affecting air quality locally and regionally in the western U.S. Routine surface monitors, remotely sensed data, and aircraft based measurements were used to assess how well the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) photochemical grid model applied at 4 and 12 km resolution represented regional plume transport and chemical evolution during this extreme wildland fire episode. Impacts were generally similar at both grid resolutions although notable differences were seen in some secondary pollutants (e.g., formaldehyde and peroxyacyl nitrate) near the Rim fire. The modeling system does well at capturing near-fire to regional scale smoke plume transport compared to remotely sensed aerosol optical depth (AOD) and aircraft transect measurements. Plume rise for the Rim fire was well characterized as the modeled plume top was consistent with remotely sensed data and the altitude of aircraft measurements, which were typically made at the top edge of the plume. Aircraft-based lidar suggests O 3 downwind in the Rim fire plume was vertically stratified and tended to be higher at the plume top, while CMAQ estimated a more uniformly mixed column of O 3 . Predicted wildfire ozone (O 3 ) was overestimated both at the plume top and at nearby rural and urban surface monitors. Photolysis rates were well characterized by the model compared with aircraft measurements meaning aerosol attenuation was reasonably estimated and unlikely contributing to O 3 overestimates at the top of the plume. Organic carbon was underestimated close to the Rim fire compared to aircraft data, but was consistent with nearby surface measurements. Periods of elevated surface PM 2.5 at rural monitors near the Rim fire were not usually coincident with elevated O 3 . Published by Elsevier B.V.

  20. Introducing the Clean-Tech Adoption Model: A California Case Study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bijlveld, P.C. (Paul); Riezebos, P. (Peter); Wierstra, E. (Erik)

    2012-01-01

    Abstract. The Clean-Tech Adoption Model (C-TAM) explains the adoption process of clean technology. Based on the Unified Theory of Acceptance and Usage of Technology (UTAUT) combined with qualitative research and empirical data gathering, the model predicts adoption based on the perceived quality,

  1. Glioblastoma niches: from the concept to the phenotypical reality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schiffer, Davide; Mellai, Marta; Bovio, Enrica; Bisogno, Ilaria; Casalone, Cristina; Annovazzi, Laura

    2018-05-08

    Recently, the concept of niches as sites of tumor progression, invasion, and angiogenesis in glioblastoma (GB) has been extensively debated. Niches, considered the sites in which glioblastoma stem cells (GSCs) reside, have been classified as perivascular, perinecrotic, and invasive. However, from a neuropathological point of view, it is not easy to establish when a tumor structure can be considered a niche. The relevant literature has been reviewed in the light of our recent experience on the subject. As for perinecrotic niches, the occurrence of GSCs around necrosis is interpreted as triggered by hypoxia through HIF-1α. Our alternative hypothesis is that, together with progenitors, they are the cell constituents of hyper-proliferative areas of GB, where perinecrotic niches have developed, and they would, therefore, represent the remnants of GSCs/progenitors spared by the developing necrosis. Perivascular structures originate from both transport vessels and exchange vessels, i.e., venules, arterioles, or the undefinable neo-formed small vessels, but only those in which a direct contact between GSCs/progenitors and endothelial cells occurs can be called niches. Both pericytes and microglia/macrophages play a role in niche function: Macrophages of blood origin invade GB only after the appearance of "mother vessels" with consequent blood-brain barrier disruption. Not all vessel/tumor cell structures can be considered niches, that is, crucial sites of tumor progression, invasion, and angiogenesis.

  2. Probabilistic and spatially variable niches inferred from demography

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeffrey M. Diez; Itamar Giladi; Robert Warren; H. Ronald. Pulliam

    2014-01-01

    Summary 1. Mismatches between species distributions and habitat suitability are predicted by niche theory and have important implications for forecasting how species may respond to environmental changes. Quantifying these mismatches is challenging, however, due to the high dimensionality of species niches and the large spatial and temporal variability in population...

  3. Competition in a technological niche: the cars of the future

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bakker, S.; Lente, H. van; Engels, R.

    2012-01-01

    The notion of ‘niche’has proved to be useful to account for the emergence of radical innovations. Most studies, however, deal with the development of single emerging technologies. In this paper we address the competition between multiple niche technologies.Within the niche of the ‘car of the future’

  4. Overlap and partitioning of the ecological and isotopic niches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elizabeth A. Flaherty; Merav Ben-David

    2010-01-01

    Recently, it was proposed that stable isotope patterns can be used to quantify the width of the ecological niche of animals. However, the potential effects of habitat use on isotopic patterns of consumers have not been fully explored and consequently isotopic patterns may yield deceptive estimates of niche width. Here, we simulated four different scenarios of a...

  5. The evolution of climatic niches in squamate reptiles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pie, Marcio R; Campos, Leonardo L F; Meyer, Andreas L S; Duran, Andressa

    2017-07-12

    Despite the remarkable diversity found in squamate reptiles, most of their species tend to be found in warm/dry environments, suggesting that climatic requirements played a crucial role in their diversification, yet little is known about the evolution of their climatic niches. In this study, we integrate climatic information associated with the geographical distribution of 1882 squamate species and their phylogenetic relationships to investigate the tempo and mode of climatic niche evolution in squamates, both over time and among lineages. We found that changes in climatic niche dynamics were pronounced over their recent squamate evolutionary history, and we identified extensive evidence for rate heterogeneity in squamate climatic niche evolution. Most rate shifts involved accelerations, particularly over the past 50 Myr. Most squamates occupy similar regions of the climatic niche space, with only a few lineages diversifying into colder and humid climatic conditions. The changes from arid to mesic conditions in some regions of the globe may have provided opportunities for climatic niche evolution, although most lineages tended to remain near their ancestral niche. Variation in rates of climatic niche evolution seems common, particularly in response to the availability of new climatic conditions over evolutionary time. © 2017 The Author(s).

  6. Building Planner Commitment : Are California's SB 375 and Oregon's SB 1059 Models for Climate-Change Mitigation?

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-11-01

    California's Sustainable Communities and Climate Protection Act (SB 375) and the Oregon Sustainable Transportation Initiative (SB 1059) have made them the first states in the nation to try and reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions using the transport...

  7. Modeling The Evolution Of A Regional Aquifer System With The California Central Valley Groundwater-Surface Water Simulation Model (C2VSIM)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brush, C. F.; Dogrul, E. C.; Kadir, T. N.; Moncrief, M. R.; Shultz, S.; Tonkin, M.; Wendell, D.

    2006-12-01

    The finite element application IWFM has been used to develop an integrated groundwater-surface water model for California's Central Valley, an area of ~50,000 km2, to simulate the evolution of the groundwater flow system and historical groundwater-surface water interactions on a monthly time step from October 1921 to September 2003. The Central Valley's hydrologic system changed significantly during this period. Prior to 1920, most surface water flowed unimpeded from source areas in the mountains surrounding the Central Valley through the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta to the Pacific Ocean, and groundwater largely flowed from recharge areas on the valley rim to discharge as evapotransipration in extensive marshes along the valley's axis. Rapid agricultural development led to increases in groundwater pumping from ~0.5 km3/yr in the early 1920's to 13-18 km3/yr in the 1940's to 1970's, resulting in strong vertical head gradients, significant head declines throughout the valley, and subsidence of >0.3 m over an area of 13,000 km2. Construction of numerous dams and development of an extensive surface water delivery network after 1950 altered the surface water flow regime and reduced groundwater pumping to the current ~10 km3/yr, increasing net recharge and leading to local head gradient reversals and water level recoveries. A model calibrated to the range of historical flow regimes in the Central Valley will provide robust estimations of stream-groundwater interactions for a range of projected future scenarios. C2VSIM uses the IWFM application to simulate a 3-D finite element groundwater flow process dynamically coupled with 1-D land surface, stream flow, lake and unsaturated zone processes. The groundwater flow system is represented with three layers each having 1393 elements. Land surface processes are simulated using 21 subregions corresponding to California DWR water-supply planning areas. The surface-water network is simulated using 431 stream nodes representing 72

  8. Shifts in the ecological niche of Lutzomyia peruensis under climate change scenarios in Peru.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moo-Llanes, D A; Arque-Chunga, W; Carmona-Castro, O; Yañez-Arenas, C; Yañez-Trujillano, H H; Cheverría-Pacheco, L; Baak-Baak, C M; Cáceres, A G

    2017-06-01

    The Peruvian Andes presents a climate suitable for many species of sandfly that are known vectors of leishmaniasis or bartonellosis, including Lutzomyia peruensis (Diptera: Psychodidae), among others. In the present study, occurrences data for Lu. peruensis were compiled from several items in the scientific literature from Peru published between 1927 and 2015. Based on these data, ecological niche models were constructed to predict spatial distributions using three algorithms [Support vector machine (SVM), the Genetic Algorithm for Rule-set Prediction (GARP) and Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt)]. In addition, the environmental requirements of Lu. peruensis and three niche characteristics were modelled in the context of future climate change scenarios: (a) potential changes in niche breadth; (b) shifts in the direction and magnitude of niche centroids, and (c) shifts in elevation range. The model identified areas that included environments suitable for Lu. peruensis in most regions of Peru (45.77%) and an average altitude of 3289 m a.s.l. Under climate change scenarios, a decrease in the distribution areas of Lu. peruensis was observed for all representative concentration pathways. However, the centroid of the species' ecological niche showed a northwest direction in all climate change scenarios. The information generated in this study may help health authorities responsible for the supervision of strategies to control leishmaniasis to coordinate, plan and implement appropriate strategies for each area of risk, taking into account the geographic distribution and potential dispersal of Lu. peruensis. © 2017 The Royal Entomological Society.

  9. Decision-relevant evaluation of climate models: A case study of chill hours in California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jagannathan, K. A.; Jones, A. D.; Kerr, A. C.

    2017-12-01

    The past decade has seen a proliferation of different climate datasets with over 60 climate models currently in use. Comparative evaluation and validation of models can assist practitioners chose the most appropriate models for adaptation planning. However, such assessments are usually conducted for `climate metrics' such as seasonal temperature, while sectoral decisions are often based on `decision-relevant outcome metrics' such as growing degree days or chill hours. Since climate models predict different metrics with varying skill, the goal of this research is to conduct a bottom-up evaluation of model skill for `outcome-based' metrics. Using chill hours (number of hours in winter months where temperature is lesser than 45 deg F) in Fresno, CA as a case, we assess how well different GCMs predict the historical mean and slope of chill hours, and whether and to what extent projections differ based on model selection. We then compare our results with other climate-based evaluations of the region, to identify similarities and differences. For the model skill evaluation, historically observed chill hours were compared with simulations from 27 GCMs (and multiple ensembles). Model skill scores were generated based on a statistical hypothesis test of the comparative assessment. Future projections from RCP 8.5 runs were evaluated, and a simple bias correction was also conducted. Our analysis indicates that model skill in predicting chill hour slope is dependent on its skill in predicting mean chill hours, which results from the non-linear nature of the chill metric. However, there was no clear relationship between the models that performed well for the chill hour metric and those that performed well in other temperature-based evaluations (such winter minimum temperature or diurnal temperature range). Further, contrary to conclusions from other studies, we also found that the multi-model mean or large ensemble mean results may not always be most appropriate for this

  10. A Tidally Averaged Sediment-Transport Model for San Francisco Bay, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lionberger, Megan A.; Schoellhamer, David H.

    2009-01-01

    A tidally averaged sediment-transport model of San Francisco Bay was incorporated into a tidally averaged salinity box model previously developed and calibrated using salinity, a conservative tracer (Uncles and Peterson, 1995; Knowles, 1996). The Bay is represented in the model by 50 segments composed of two layers: one representing the channel (>5-meter depth) and the other the shallows (0- to 5-meter depth). Calculations are made using a daily time step and simulations can be made on the decadal time scale. The sediment-transport model includes an erosion-deposition algorithm, a bed-sediment algorithm, and sediment boundary conditions. Erosion and deposition of bed sediments are calculated explicitly, and suspended sediment is transported by implicitly solving the advection-dispersion equation. The bed-sediment model simulates the increase in bed strength with depth, owing to consolidation of fine sediments that make up San Francisco Bay mud. The model is calibrated to either net sedimentation calculated from bathymetric-change data or measured suspended-sediment concentration. Specified boundary conditions are the tributary fluxes of suspended sediment and suspended-sediment concentration in the Pacific Ocean. Results of model calibration and validation show that the model simulates the trends in suspended-sediment concentration associated with tidal fluctuations, residual velocity, and wind stress well, although the spring neap tidal suspended-sediment concentration variability was consistently underestimated. Model validation also showed poor simulation of seasonal sediment pulses from the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta at Point San Pablo because the pulses enter the Bay over only a few days and the fate of the pulses is determined by intra-tidal deposition and resuspension that are not included in this tidally averaged model. The model was calibrated to net-basin sedimentation to calculate budgets of sediment and sediment-associated contaminants. While

  11. Language, embodiment, and the cognitive niche.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clark, Andy

    2006-08-01

    Embodied agents use bodily actions and environmental interventions to make the world a better place to think in. Where does language fit into this emerging picture of the embodied, ecologically efficient agent? One useful way to approach this question is to consider language itself as a cognition-enhancing animal-built structure. To take this perspective is to view language as a kind of self-constructed cognitive niche: a persisting but never stationary material scaffolding whose crucial role in promoting thought and reason remains surprisingly poorly understood. It is the very materiality of this linguistic scaffolding, I suggest, that gives it some key benefits. By materializing thought in words, we create structures that are themselves proper objects of perception, manipulation, and (further) thought.

  12. Integrating Biogeography with Contemporary Niche Theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Godsoe, William; Jankowski, Jill; Holt, Robert D; Gravel, Dominique

    2017-07-01

    There is no consensus on when biotic interactions impact the range limits of species. Starting from MacArthur's use of invasibility to understand how biotic interactions influence coexistence, here we examine how biotic interactions shape species distributions. Range limits emerge from how birth, death, and movement rates vary with the environment. We clarify some basic issues revolving around niche definitions, illustrated with simple resource-consumer theory. We then highlight two different avenues for linking community theory and range theory; the first based on calculating the effects of biotic interactions on range limits across scales and landscape configurations, and the second based on aggregate measures of diffuse interactions and network strength. We conclude with suggestions for a future research agenda. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Primer and interviews: The dynamic stem cell niche.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kiefer, Julie C

    2011-03-01

    A stem cell niche is a microenvironment that supports self-renewal of a population of stem cells, and their production of differentiated cells. While the definition evokes images of a stem cell Shangri-La-where a serene stem cell pool nestles within a niche that shelters and sustains it-the reality is much more tumultuous. Niches are subject to an ever-changing maelstrom of environmental factors, the ravages of old age, and the sly tactics of disease. Presented here is a basic overview of the different ways in which stem cell niches respond to local and systemic environments, and their impact on stem cell behavior. The primer culminates with a discussion of the topic with stem cell and niche biologists D. Leanne Jones, Ph.D., and Tudorita Tumbar, Ph.D. Copyright © 2011 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

  14. Niche separation of pollen beetle parasitoids

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Josef eBerger

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Species with similar resource requirements are commonly assumed to competitively exclude each other, unless they differentiate their ecological niches. Hence, parasitoid wasps that use the same host species need to find some way to avoid competition. The aim of this study was to identify the role of volatile cues from oilseed rape plants and the larval host in niche separation between three coexisting parasitoid species. We examined how Phradis interstitialis, Phradis morionellus and Tersilochus heterocerus, sympatric parasitoids of Brassicogethes aeneus, differ in their abundances, distribution on buds and flowers, and oviposition behavior in the field. Furthermore, we tested their preferences for odours from uninfested and infested oilseed rape plants in the bud and flowering stage, and their preferences for odours from three developmental stages of pollen beetle larvae in a two-choice olfactometer bioassay.P. interstitialis was active in the field early in the season, preferred odours of infested buds versus uninfested, and oviposited into buds which contained only pollen beetle eggs, while P. morionellus was active late in the season, preferred odours of infested buds as well as odours of infested flowers over uninfested, and oviposited into buds which contained only larvae. T. heterocerus was active throughout the season, and preferred odours of infested flowers over uninfested. Neither Phradis species were attracted to larval odours, whereas T. heterocerus was attracted to odours from first-instar pollen beetle larvae both in the absence of plant odours, and when presented simultaneously with uninfested plant odour.This suggests that the two Phradis species are separated on a temporal scale and that they parasitize different host stages, while the larval parasitoids P. morionellus and T. heterocerus are separated by choice of microhabitat. The former oviposits into larvae in buds, and the latter in flowers.

  15. Tropospheric Ozone Source Attribution in Southern California during Summer 2014 Based on Lidar Measurements and Model Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Granados Munoz, Maria Jose; Johnson, Matthew S.; Leblanc, Thierry

    2016-01-01

    In the past decades, significant efforts have been made to increase tropospheric ozone long-term monitoring. A large number of ground-based, airborne and space-borne instruments are currently providing valuable data to contribute to better understand tropospheric ozone budget and variability. Nonetheless, most of these instruments provide in-situ surface and column-integrated data, whereas vertically resolved measurements are still scarce. Besides ozonesondes and aircraft, lidar measurements have proven to be valuable tropospheric ozone profilers. Using the measurements from the tropospheric ozone differential absorption lidar (DIAL) located at the JPL Table Mountain Facility, California, and the GEOS-Chem and GEOS-5 model outputs, the impact of the North American monsoon on tropospheric ozone during summer 2014 is investigated. The influence of the Monsoon lightning-induced NOx will be evaluated against other sources (e.g. local anthropogenic emissions and the stratosphere) using also complementary data such as backward-trajectories analysis, coincident water vapor lidar measurements, and surface ozone in-situ measurements.

  16. Santa Monica, California 1/3 Arc-second MHW Coastal Digital Elevation Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — NOAA's National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) is building high-resolution digital elevation models (DEMs) for select U.S. coastal regions. These integrated...

  17. San Diego, California 1/3 Arc-second MHW Coastal Digital Elevation Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — NOAA's National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) is building high-resolution digital elevation models (DEMs) for select U.S. coastal regions. These integrated...

  18. Crescent City, California 1/3 Arc-second Coastal Digital Elevation Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — NOAA's National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) is building high-resolution digital elevation models (DEMs) for select U.S. coastal regions. These integrated...

  19. Eureka, California 1/3 Arc-second MHW Coastal Digital Elevation Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — NOAA's National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) is building high-resolution digital elevation models (DEMs) for select U.S. coastal regions. These integrated...

  20. Eureka, California 1/3 Arc-second NAVD 88 Coastal Digital Elevation Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — NOAA's National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) is building high-resolution digital elevation models (DEMs) for select U.S. coastal regions. These integrated...

  1. San Francisco Bay, California 1/3 Arc-second MHW Coastal Digital Elevation Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — NOAA's National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) is building high-resolution digital elevation models (DEMs) for select U.S. coastal regions. These integrated...

  2. San Diego, California 1/3 Arc-second NAVD 88 Coastal Digital Elevation Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — NOAA's National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) is building high-resolution digital elevation models (DEMs) for select U.S. coastal regions. These integrated...

  3. Development And Application Of A Hydrothermal Model For The Salton Sea Geothermal Field, California

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kasameyer, P.; Younker, L.; Hanson, J.

    1984-01-01

    A simple lateral flow model adequately explains many of the features associated with the Salton Sea Geothermal Field. Earthquake swarms, a magnetic anomaly, and aspects of the gravity anomaly are all indirect evidence for the igneous activity which is the ultimate source of heat for the system. Heat is transferred from this area of intrusion by lateral spreading of hot water in a reservoir beneath an impermeable cap rock. A two dimensional analytic model encompassing this transport mechanism matches general features of the thermal anomaly and has been used to estimate the age of the presently observed thermal system. The age is calculated by minimizing the variance between the observed surface heat-flow data and the model. Estimates of the system age for this model range from 3,000 to 20,000 years.

  4. Santa Monica, California 1/3 Arc-second NAVD 88 Coastal Digital Elevation Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — NOAA's National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) is building high-resolution digital elevation models (DEMs) for select U.S. coastal regions. These integrated...

  5. Port San Luis, California 1/3 Arc-second NAVD 88 Coastal Digital Elevation Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — NOAA's National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) is building high-resolution digital elevation models (DEMs) for select U.S. coastal regions. These integrated...

  6. Modeling the Central California Coastal Upwelling System: Physics, Ecosystems and Resource Management

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Chavez, Francisco P; Barber, Richard T; Chai, Fei; Chao, Yi; De Vogelaere, Andrew P; Kindle, John C; Maffione, Robert A; Marinovic, Baldo; McWilliams, James C; Paduan, Jeffrey D

    2003-01-01

    To develop a coupled physical-biological model that can utilize available data to accurately simulate physical, chemical and biological processes within the Monterey Bay National Marine Sanctuary (MBNMS...

  7. Fort Bragg, California 1/3 Arc-second MHW Coastal Digital Elevation Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — NOAA's National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) is building high-resolution digital elevation models (DEMs) for select U.S. coastal regions. These integrated...

  8. Orange County, California 1/3 arc-second NAVD 88 Coastal Digital Elevation Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) is building high-resolution digital elevation models (DEMs) for select U.S. coastal regions. These...

  9. Fort Bragg, California 1/3 Arc-second NAVD 88 Coastal Digital Elevation Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — NOAA's National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) is building high-resolution digital elevation models (DEMs) for select U.S. coastal regions. These integrated...

  10. Crescent City, California 1/3 Arc-second NAVD 88 Coastal Digital Elevation Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — NOAA's National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) is building high-resolution digital elevation models (DEMs) for select U.S. coastal regions. These integrated...

  11. Central California 1 Arc-second NAVD 88 Coastal Digital Elevation Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — NOAA's National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) is building high-resolution digital elevation models (DEMs) for select U.S. coastal regions. These integrated...

  12. Central California 1 Arc-second MWH Coastal Digital Elevation Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — NOAA's National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) is building high-resolution digital elevation models (DEMs) for select U.S. coastal regions. These integrated...

  13. San Francisco Bay, California 1/3 Arc-second NAVD 88 Coastal Digital Elevation Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — NOAA's National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) is building high-resolution digital elevation models (DEMs) for select U.S. coastal regions. These integrated...

  14. Port San Luis, California 1/3 Arc-second MWH Coastal Digital Elevation Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — NOAA's National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) is building high-resolution digital elevation models (DEMs) for select U.S. coastal regions. These integrated...

  15. Monterey, California 1/3 Arc-second NAVD 88 Coastal Digital Elevation Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — NOAA's National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) is building high-resolution digital elevation models (DEMs) for select U.S. coastal regions. These integrated...

  16. Monterey, California 1/3 Arc-second MHW Coastal Digital Elevation Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — NOAA's National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) is building high-resolution digital elevation models (DEMs) for select U.S. coastal regions. These integrated...

  17. Biogeographic ranges do not support niche theory in radiating Canary Island plant clades

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Steinbauer, Manuel; Field, Richard; Fernández-Palacios, José María

    2016-01-01

    in allopatry. Main conclusions: The expectations from niche conservatism were frequently not met; instead our results suggest considerable climatic niche lability. All significant differences in climatic niche differentiation were opposite to the predictions from competitive displacement. These forces may...

  18. Assessing Drought Impacts on Water Storage using GRACE Satellites and Regional Groundwater Modeling in the Central Valley of California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scanlon, B. R.; Zhang, Z.; Save, H.; Faunt, C. C.; Dettinger, M. D.

    2015-12-01

    Increasing concerns about drought impacts on water resources in California underscores the need to better understand effects of drought on water storage and coping strategies. Here we use a new GRACE mascons solution with high spatial resolution (1 degree) developed at the Univ. of Texas Center for Space Research (CSR) and output from the most recent regional groundwater model developed by the U.S. Geological Survey to evaluate changes in water storage in response to recent droughts. We also extend the analysis of drought impacts on water storage back to the 1980s using modeling and monitoring data. The drought has been intensifying since 2012 with almost 50% of the state and 100% of the Central Valley under exceptional drought in 2015. Total water storage from GRACE data declined sharply during the current drought, similar to the rate of depletion during the previous drought in 2007 - 2009. However, only 45% average recovery between the two droughts results in a much greater cumulative impact of both droughts. The CSR GRACE Mascons data offer unprecedented spatial resolution with no leakage to the oceans and no requirement for signal restoration. Snow and reservoir storage declines contribute to the total water storage depletion estimated by GRACE with the residuals attributed to groundwater storage. Rates of groundwater storage depletion are consistent with the results of regional groundwater modeling in the Central Valley. Traditional approaches to coping with these climate extremes has focused on surface water reservoir storage; however, increasing conjunctive use of surface water and groundwater and storing excess water from wet periods in depleted aquifers is increasing in the Central Valley.

  19. Thermal modeling of the Clear Lake magmatic system, California: Implications for conventional and hot dry rock geothermal development

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stimac, J.; Goff, F.; Wohletz, K.

    1997-06-01

    The combination of recent volcanism, high heat flow ({ge} HFU or 167 mW/m{sup 2}), and high conductive geothermal gradient (up to 120{degree} C/km) makes the Clear Lake region of northern California one of the best prospects for hot dry rock (HDR) geothermal development in the US. The lack of permeability in exploration wells and lack of evidence for widespread geothermal reservoirs north of the Collayomi fault zone are not reassuring indications for conventional geothermal development. This report summarizes results of thermal modeling of the Clear Lake magmatic system, and discusses implications for HDR site selection in the region. The thermal models incorporate a wide range of constraints including the distribution and nature of volcanism in time and space, water and gas geochemistry, well data, and geophysical surveys. The nature of upper crustal magma bodies at Clear Lake is inferred from studying sequences of related silicic lavas, which tell a story of multistage mixing of silicic and mafic magma in clusters of small upper crustal chambers. Thermobarometry on metamorphic xenoliths yield temperature and pressure estimates of {approximately}780--900 C and 4--6 kb respectively, indicating that at least a portion of the deep magma system resided at depths from 14 to 21 km (9 to 12 mi). The results of thermal modeling support previous assessments of the high HDR potential of the area, and suggest the possibility that granitic bodies similar to The Geysers felsite may underlie much of the Clear Lake region at depths as little as 3--6 km. This is significant because future HDR reservoirs could potentially be sited in relatively shallow granitoid plutons rather than in structurally complex Franciscan basement rocks.

  20. A hybrid machine learning model to predict and visualize nitrate concentration throughout the Central Valley aquifer, California, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ransom, Katherine M.; Nolan, Bernard T.; Traum, Jonathan A.; Faunt, Claudia; Bell, Andrew M.; Gronberg, Jo Ann M.; Wheeler, David C.; Zamora, Celia; Jurgens, Bryant; Schwarz, Gregory E.; Belitz, Kenneth; Eberts, Sandra; Kourakos, George; Harter, Thomas

    2017-01-01

    Intense demand for water in the Central Valley of California and related increases in groundwater nitrate concentration threaten the sustainability of the groundwater resource. To assess contamination risk in the region, we developed a hybrid, non-linear, machine learning model within a statistical learning framework to predict nitrate contamination of groundwater to depths of approximately 500 m below ground surface. A database of 145 predictor variables representing well characteristics, historical and current field and landscape-scale nitrogen mass balances, historical and current land use, oxidation/reduction conditions, groundwater flow, climate, soil characteristics, depth to groundwater, and groundwater age were assigned to over 6000 private supply and public supply wells measured previously for nitrate and located throughout the study area. The boosted regression tree (BRT) method was used to screen and rank variables to predict nitrate concentration at the depths of domestic and public well supplies. The novel approach included as predictor variables outputs from existing physically based models of the Central Valley. The top five most important predictor variables included two oxidation/reduction variables (probability of manganese concentration to exceed 50 ppb and probability of dissolved oxygen concentration to be below 0.5 ppm), field-scale adjusted unsaturated zone nitrogen input for the 1975 time period, average difference between precipitation and evapotranspiration during the years 1971–2000, and 1992 total landscape nitrogen input. Twenty-five variables were selected for the final model for log-transformed nitrate. In general, increasing probability of anoxic conditions and increasing precipitation relative to potential evapotranspiration had a corresponding decrease in nitrate concentration predictions. Conversely, increasing 1975 unsaturated zone nitrogen leaching flux and 1992 total landscape nitrogen input had an increasing relative

  1. Diet and trophic niche of Lithobates catesbeianus (Amphibia: Anura

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peterson T. Leivas

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Lithobates catesbeianus (Shaw, 1802 is an invasive anuran introduced in Brazil that is associated with the displacement and the decline of populations of native species worldwide. There is evidence that biological invasions are facilitated by certain attributes of the invading species, for instance niche breath, and that invasive species have a broader ecological niche with respect to native ones. We designed a study to ascertain the temporal, ontogenetic, and sex differences in the niche dynamics of the American bullfrog. We sampled monthly from June 2008 to May 2009 in the state of Paraná, southern Brazil. For each individual, we gathered biometric and stomach content data. We then estimated the niche breath of the juveniles and adults, and compared it between the sexes. A total of 104 females and 77 males were sampled. Lithobates catesbeianus has a generalist diet, preying upon invertebrates and vertebrates. Even though the diet of the studied population varied seasonally, it did not differ between the sexes nor did it respond to biometric variables. Niche breadth was more restricted in the winter than in the autumn. The trophic niche of juveniles and adults did not overlap much when compared with the trophic niche overlap between males and females. Adult males and females had a considerable niche overlap, but females had a broader trophic niche than males in the winter and in the spring. These niche characteristics point to an opportunistic predation strategy that may have facilitated the process of invasion and establishment of this species in the study area.

  2. Isotopic niche variation in a higher trophic level ectotherm: highlighting the role of succulent plants in desert food webs.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miguel Delibes

    Full Text Available Stable isotope analysis of animal tissues allows description of isotopic niches, whose axes in an n-dimensional space are the isotopic ratios, compared to a standard, of different isotope systems (e.g. δ(13C, δ(15N. Isotopic niches are informative about where an animal, population or species lives and about what it consumes. Here we describe inter- and intrapopulation isotopic niche (bidimensional δ(13C-δ(15N space of the Orange-throated whiptail (Aspidoscelis hyperythra, an arthropodivorous small lizard, in ten localities of Baja California Sur (Mexico. These localities range from extreme arid to subtropical conditions. Between 13 and 20 individuals were sampled at each locality and 1 cm of tail-tip was collected for isotope analysis. As expected, interpopulation niche width variation was much larger than intrapopulation one. Besides, isotopic variation was not related to age, sex or individual size of lizards. This suggests geographic variation of the isotopic niche was related to changes in the basal resources that fuel the trophic web at each locality. The position of Bayesian isotope ellipses in the δ-space indicated that whiptails in more arid localities were enriched in 13C, suggesting most of the carbon they ingested came from CAM succulent plants (cacti, agaves and in minor degree in C4 grasses. Contrarily, whiptails in subtropical areas were depleted in 13C, as they received more carbon from C3 scrubs and trees. Localities closer to sea-level tended to be enriched in 15N, but a clear influence of marine subsidies was detected only at individual level. The study contributes to identify the origin and pathways through which energy flows across the trophic webs of North American deserts.

  3. Isotopic Niche Variation in a Higher Trophic Level Ectotherm: Highlighting the Role of Succulent Plants in Desert Food Webs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delibes, Miguel; Blazquez, Ma Carmen; Fedriani, Jose Maria; Granados, Arsenio; Soriano, Laura; Delgado, Antonio

    2015-01-01

    Stable isotope analysis of animal tissues allows description of isotopic niches, whose axes in an n-dimensional space are the isotopic ratios, compared to a standard, of different isotope systems (e.g. δ13C, δ15N). Isotopic niches are informative about where an animal, population or species lives and about what it consumes. Here we describe inter- and intrapopulation isotopic niche (bidimensional δ13C-δ15N space) of the Orange-throated whiptail (Aspidoscelis hyperythra), an arthropodivorous small lizard, in ten localities of Baja California Sur (Mexico). These localities range from extreme arid to subtropical conditions. Between 13 and 20 individuals were sampled at each locality and 1 cm of tail-tip was collected for isotope analysis. As expected, interpopulation niche width variation was much larger than intrapopulation one. Besides, isotopic variation was not related to age, sex or individual size of lizards. This suggests geographic variation of the isotopic niche was related to changes in the basal resources that fuel the trophic web at each locality. The position of Bayesian isotope ellipses in the δ-space indicated that whiptails in more arid localities were enriched in 13C, suggesting most of the carbon they ingested came from CAM succulent plants (cacti, agaves) and in minor degree in C4 grasses. Contrarily, whiptails in subtropical areas were depleted in 13C, as they received more carbon from C3 scrubs and trees. Localities closer to sea-level tended to be enriched in 15N, but a clear influence of marine subsidies was detected only at individual level. The study contributes to identify the origin and pathways through which energy flows across the trophic webs of North American deserts. PMID:25973609

  4. Testing Pixel Translation Digital Elevation Models to Reconstruct Slip Histories: An Example from the Agua Blanca Fault, Baja California, Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, J.; Wetmore, P. H.; Malservisi, R.; Ferwerda, B. P.; Teran, O.

    2012-12-01

    We use recently collected slip vector and total offset data from the Agua Blanca fault (ABF) to constrain a pixel translation digital elevation model (DEM) to reconstruct the slip history of this fault. This model was constructed using a Perl script that reads a DEM file (Easting, Northing, Elevation) and a configuration file with coordinates that define the boundary of each fault segment. A pixel translation vector is defined as a magnitude of lateral offset in an azimuthal direction. The program translates pixels north of the fault and prints their pre-faulting position to a new DEM file that can be gridded and displayed. This analysis, where multiple DEMs are created with different translation vectors, allows us to identify areas of transtension or transpression while seeing the topographic expression in these areas. The benefit of this technique, in contrast to a simple block model, is that the DEM gives us a valuable graphic which can be used to pose new research questions. We have found that many topographic features correlate across the fault, i.e. valleys and ridges, which likely have implications for the age of the ABF, long term landscape evolution rates, and potentially provide conformation for total slip assessments The ABF of northern Baja California, Mexico is an active, dextral strike slip fault that transfers Pacific-North American plate boundary strain out of the Gulf of California and around the "Big Bend" of the San Andreas Fault. Total displacement on the ABF in the central and eastern parts of the fault is 10 +/- 2 km based on offset Early-Cretaceous features such as terrane boundaries and intrusive bodies (plutons and dike swarms). Where the fault bifurcates to the west, the northern strand (northern Agua Blanca fault or NABF) is constrained to 7 +/- 1 km. We have not yet identified piercing points on the southern strand, the Santo Tomas fault (STF), but displacement is inferred to be ~4 km assuming that the sum of slip on the NABF and STF is

  5. Foxl1-Expressing Mesenchymal Cells Constitute the Intestinal Stem Cell NicheSummary

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    Reina Aoki

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Background & Aims: Intestinal epithelial stem cells that express leucine-rich repeat-containing G-protein coupled receptor 5 (Lgr5 and/or B cell specific Moloney murine leukemia virus integration site 1 (Bmi1 continuously replicate and generate differentiated cells throughout life. Previously, Paneth cells were suggested to constitute an epithelium-intrinsic niche that regulates the behavior of these stem cells. However, ablating Paneth cells has no effect on the maintenance of functional stem cells. Here, we show definitively that a small subset of mesenchymal subepithelial cells expressing the winged-helix transcription factor forkhead box l1 (Foxl1 are a critical component of the intestinal stem cell niche. Methods: We genetically ablated Foxl1+ mesenchymal cells in adult mice using 2 separate models by expressing either the human or simian diphtheria toxin receptor under Foxl1 promoter control. Conclusions: Killing Foxl1+ cells by diphtheria toxin administration led to an abrupt cessation of proliferation of both epithelial stem- and transit-amplifying progenitor cell populations that was associated with a loss of active Wnt signaling to the intestinal epithelium. Therefore, Foxl1-expressing mesenchymal cells constitute the fundamental niche for intestinal stem cells. Keywords: Intestinal Stem Cell Niche, Wnt, Mesenchyme

  6. Tracking niche variation over millennial timescales in sympatric killer whale lineages.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foote, Andrew D; Newton, Jason; Ávila-Arcos, María C; Kampmann, Marie-Louise; Samaniego, Jose A; Post, Klaas; Rosing-Asvid, Aqqalu; Sinding, Mikkel-Holger S; Gilbert, M Thomas P

    2013-10-07

    Niche variation owing to individual differences in ecology has been hypothesized to be an early stage of sympatric speciation. Yet to date, no study has tracked niche width over more than a few generations. In this study, we show the presence of isotopic niche variation over millennial timescales and investigate the evolutionary outcomes. Isotopic ratios were measured from tissue samples of sympatric killer whale Orcinus orca lineages from the North Sea, spanning over 10 000 years. Isotopic ratios spanned a range similar to the difference in isotopic values of two known prey items, herring Clupea harengus and harbour seal Phoca vitulina. Two proxies of the stage of speciation, lineage sorting of mitogenomes and genotypic clustering, were both weak to intermediate indicating that speciation has made little progress. Thus, our study confirms that even with the necessary ecological conditions, i.e. among-individual variation in ecology, it is difficult for sympatric speciation to progress in the face of gene flow. In contrast to some theoretical models, our empirical results suggest that sympatric speciation driven by among-individual differences in ecological niche is a slow process and may not reach completion. We argue that sympatric speciation is constrained in this system owing to the plastic nature of the behavioural traits under selection when hunting either mammals or fish.

  7. Neutral theory and the species abundance distribution: recent developments and prospects for unifying niche and neutral perspectives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matthews, Thomas J; Whittaker, Robert J

    2014-01-01

    Published in 2001, The Unified Neutral Theory of Biodiversity and Biogeography (UNTB) emphasizes the importance of stochastic processes in ecological community structure, and has challenged the traditional niche-based view of ecology. While neutral models have since been applied to a broad range of ecological and macroecological phenomena, the majority of research relating to neutral theory has focused exclusively on the species abundance distribution (SAD). Here, we synthesize the large body of work on neutral theory in the context of the species abundance distribution, with a particular focus on integrating ideas from neutral theory with traditional niche theory. First, we summarize the basic tenets of neutral theory; both in general and in the context of SADs. Second, we explore the issues associated with neutral theory and the SAD, such as complications with fitting and model comparison, the underlying assumptions of neutral models, and the difficultly of linking pattern to process. Third, we highlight the advances in understanding of SADs that have resulted from neutral theory and models. Finally, we focus consideration on recent developments aimed at unifying neutral- and niche-based approaches to ecology, with a particular emphasis on what this means for SAD theory, embracing, for instance, ideas of emergent neutrality and stochastic niche theory. We put forward the argument that the prospect of the unification of niche and neutral perspectives represents one of the most promising future avenues of neutral theory research. PMID:25360266

  8. Neutral theory and the species abundance distribution: recent developments and prospects for unifying niche and neutral perspectives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matthews, Thomas J; Whittaker, Robert J

    2014-06-01

    Published in 2001, The Unified Neutral Theory of Biodiversity and Biogeography (UNTB) emphasizes the importance of stochastic processes in ecological community structure, and has challenged the traditional niche-based view of ecology. While neutral models have since been applied to a broad range of ecological and macroecological phenomena, the majority of research relating to neutral theory has focused exclusively on the species abundance distribution (SAD). Here, we synthesize the large body of work on neutral theory in the context of the species abundance distribution, with a particular focus on integrating ideas from neutral theory with traditional niche theory. First, we summarize the basic tenets of neutral theory; both in general and in the context of SADs. Second, we explore the issues associated with neutral theory and the SAD, such as complications with fitting and model comparison, the underlying assumptions of neutral models, and the difficultly of linking pattern to process. Third, we highlight the advances in understanding of SADs that have resulted from neutral theory and models. Finally, we focus consideration on recent developments aimed at unifying neutral- and niche-based approaches to ecology, with a particular emphasis on what this means for SAD theory, embracing, for instance, ideas of emergent neutrality and stochastic niche theory. We put forward the argument that the prospect of the unification of niche and neutral perspectives represents one of the most promising future avenues of neutral theory research.

  9. Physically Based Modeling of Delta Island Consumptive Use: Fabian Tract and Staten Island, California

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lucas J. Siegfried

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.15447/sfews.2014v12iss4art2Water use estimation is central to managing most water problems. To better understand water use in California’s Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta, a collaborative, integrated approach was used to predict Delta island diversion, consumption, and return of water on a more detailed temporal and spatial resolution. Fabian Tract and Staten Island were selected for this pilot study based on available data and island accessibility. Historical diversion and return location data, water rights claims, LiDAR digital elevation model data, and Google Earth were used to predict island diversion and return locations, which were tested and improved through ground-truthing. Soil and land-use characteristics as well as weather data were incorporated with the Integrated Water Flow Model Demand Calculator to estimate water use and runoff returns from input agricultural lands. For modeling, the islands were divided into grid cells forming subregions, representing fields, levees, ditches, and roads. The subregions were joined hydrographically to form diversion and return watersheds related to return and diversion locations. Diversions and returns were limited by physical capacities. Differences between initial model and measured results point to the importance of seepage into deeply subsided islands. The capabilities of the models presented far exceeded current knowledge of agricultural practices within the Delta, demonstrating the need for more data collection to enable improvements upon current Delta Island Consumptive Use estimates.

  10. Evidence of niche partitioning under ontogenetic influences among three morphologically similar siluriformes in small subtropical streams.

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    Karine Orlandi Bonato

    Full Text Available Ontogenetic influences in patterns of niche breadth and feeding overlap were investigated in three species of Siluriformes (Heptapterus sp., Rhamdia quelen and Trichomycterus poikilos aiming at understanding the species coexistence. Samplings were conducted bimonthly by electrofishing technique from June/2012 to June/2013 in ten streams of the northwestern state of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil. The stomach contents of 1,948 individuals were analyzed by volumetric method, with 59 food items identified. In general Heptapterus sp. consumed a high proportion of Aegla sp., terrestrial plant remains and Megaloptera; R. quelen consumed fish, and Oligochaeta, followed by Aegla sp.; while the diet of T. poikilos was based on Simuliidae, Ephemeroptera and Trichoptera. Specie segregation was observed in the NMDS. Through PERMANOVA analysis feeding differences among species, and between a combination of species plus size classes were observed. IndVal showed which items were indicators of these differences. Niche breadth values were high for all species. The niche breadth values were low only for the larger size of R. quelen and Heptapterus sp. while T. poikilos values were more similar. Overall the species were a low feeding overlap values. The higher frequency of high feeding overlap was observed for interaction between Heptapterus sp. and T. poikilos. The null model confirmed the niche partitioning between the species. The higher frequency of high and intermediate feeding overlap values were reported to smaller size classes. The null model showed resource sharing between the species/size class. Therefore, overall species showed a resource partitioning because of the use of occasional items. However, these species share resources mainly in the early ontogenetic stages until the emphasized change of morphological characteristics leading to trophic niche expansion and the apparent segregation observed.

  11. Modeling study of the natural state of the Heber geothermal field, California

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lippmann, M.J.; Bodvarsson, G.S.

    1983-06-01

    As a first step in simulating the behavior of the Heber field under exploitation, the system is modeled in its natural (pre-exploitation) state. Using Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory's (LBL) computer code PT and a radially symmetric model, a reasonable match between published and calculated temperature and pressure distributions is obtained. The results of the study indicate that the Heber geothermal system is created by the upflow of hot water through a central zone of higher permeability. The model shows that in its natural state the system is recharged at depth by a 15 MW(thermal) convective heat source. The existence of a radially symmetric convection pattern, whose axis coincides with that of the Heber anomaly is suggested. At the lower part of the ascending hot water plume, the deep recharge water mixes with colder water moving laterally towards the axis of the system. On the upper part, the rising plume spreads radially outward before reaching the bottom of the caprock, at 550 m depth. The model results suggest that the caprock is quite permeable, with convection controlling the temperature distribution. The low permeability of the upper zones in the outer region of the system may be due to mineral precipitation.

  12. A diameter increment model for Red Fir in California and Southern Oregon

    Science.gov (United States)

    K. Leroy Dolph

    1992-01-01

    Periodic (10-year) diameter increment of individual red fir trees in Califomia and southern Oregon can be predicted from initial diameter and crown ratio of each tree, site index, percent slope, and aspect of the site. The model actually predicts the natural logarithm ofthe change in squared diameter inside bark between the startand the end of a 10-year growth period....

  13. A Mixed-Effects Heterogeneous Negative Binomial Model for Postfire Conifer Regeneration in Northeastern California, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Justin S. Crotteau; Martin W. Ritchie; J. Morgan. Varner

    2014-01-01

    Many western USA fire regimes are typified by mixed-severity fire, which compounds the variability inherent to natural regeneration densities in associated forests. Tree regeneration data are often discrete and nonnegative; accordingly, we fit a series of Poisson and negative binomial variation models to conifer seedling counts across four distinct burn severities and...

  14. Modeling personal particle-bound polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (pb-pah) exposure in human subjects in Southern California.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Jun; Tjoa, Thomas; Li, Lianfa; Jaimes, Guillermo; Delfino, Ralph J

    2012-07-11

    Exposure to polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) has been linked to various adverse health outcomes. Personal PAH exposures are usually measured by personal monitoring or biomarkers, which are costly and impractical for a large population. Modeling is a cost-effective alternative to characterize personal PAH exposure although challenges exist because the PAH exposure can be highly variable between locations and individuals in non-occupational settings. In this study we developed models to estimate personal inhalation exposures to particle-bound PAH (PB-PAH) using data from global positioning system (GPS) time-activity tracking data, traffic activity, and questionnaire information. We conducted real-time (1-min interval) personal PB-PAH exposure sampling coupled with GPS tracking in 28 non-smoking women for one to three sessions and one to nine days each session from August 2009 to November 2010 in Los Angeles and Orange Counties, California. Each subject filled out a baseline questionnaire and environmental and behavior questionnaires on their typical activities in the previous three months. A validated model was used to classify major time-activity patterns (indoor, in-vehicle, and other) based on the raw GPS data. Multiple-linear regression and mixed effect models were developed to estimate averaged daily and subject-level PB-PAH exposures. The covariates we examined included day of week and time of day, GPS-based time-activity and GPS speed, traffic- and roadway-related parameters, meteorological variables (i.e. temperature, wind speed, relative humidity), and socio-demographic variables and occupational exposures from the questionnaire. We measured personal PB-PAH exposures for 180 days with more than 6 h of valid data on each day. The adjusted R2 of the model was 0.58 for personal daily exposures, 0.61 for subject-level personal exposures, and 0.75 for subject-level micro-environmental exposures. The amount of time in vehicle (averaging 4.5% of total

  15. Hydrologic models and analysis of water availability in Cuyama Valley, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanson, R.T.; Flint, Lorraine E.; Faunt, Claudia C.; Gibbs, Dennis R.; Schmid, Wolfgang

    2014-01-01

    Changes in population, agricultural development practices (including shifts to more water-intensive crops), and climate variability are placing increasingly larger demands on available water resources, particularly groundwater, in the Cuyama Valley, one of the most productive agricultural regions in Santa Barbara County. The goal of this study was to produce a model capable of being accurate at scales relevant to water management decisions that could be considered in the evaluation of the sustainable water supply. The Cuyama Valley Hydrologic Model (CUVHM) was designed to simulate the most important natural and human components of the hydrologic system, including components dependent on variations in climate, thereby providing a reliable assessment of groundwater conditions and processes that can inform water users and help to improve planning for future conditions. Model development included a revision of the conceptual model of the flow system, construction of a precipitation-runoff model using the Basin Characterization Model (BCM), and construction of an integrated hydrologic flow model with MODFLOW-One-Water Hydrologic Flow Model (MF-OWHM). The hydrologic models were calibrated to historical conditions of water and land use and, then, used to assess the use and movement of water throughout the Valley. These tools provide a means to understand the evolution of water use in the Valley, its availability, and the limits of sustainability. The conceptual model identified inflows and outflows that include the movement and use of water in both natural and anthropogenic systems. The groundwater flow system is characterized by a layered geologic sedimentary sequence that—in combination with the effects of groundwater pumping, natural recharge, and the application of irrigation water at the land surface—displays vertical hydraulic-head gradients. Overall, most of the agricultural demand for water in the Cuyama Valley in the initial part of the growing season is

  16. Community Based Flood Modeling in Southern and Baja California to Meet End User Needs for Decision-Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanders, B. F.

    2017-12-01

    Flooding of coastal and fluvial systems are the most significant natural hazards facing society, and damages have been escalating for decades globally and in the U.S. Almost all metropolitan areas are exposed to flood risk. The threat from river flooding is especially high in India and China, and coastal cities around the world are threatened by storm surge and rising sea levels. Several trends including rising sea levels, urbanization, deforestation, and rural-to-urban population shifts will increase flood exposure in the future. Flood impacts are escalating despite advances in hazards science and extensive effort to manage risks. The fundamental issue is not that flooding is becoming more severe, even though it is in some places, but rather that societies are become more vulnerable to flood impacts. A critical factor contributing to the escalation of flood impacts is that the most vulnerable sectors of communities are left out of processes to prepare for and respond to flooding. Furthermore, the translation of knowledge about flood hazards and vulnerabilities into actionable information for communities has not been effective. In Southern and Baja California, an interdisciplinary team of researchers has partnered with stakeholders in flood vulnerable communities to co-develop flood hazard information systems designed to meet end-user needs for decision-making. The initiative leveraged the power of advanced, fine-scale hydraulic models of flooding to craft intuitive visualizations of context-sensitive scenarios. This presentation will cover the ways by which the process of flood inundation modeling served as a focal point for knowledge development, as well as the unique visualizations that populate on-line information systems accessible here: http://floodrise.uci.edu/online-flood-hazard-viewers/

  17. Dynamic rupture models of earthquakes on the Bartlett Springs Fault, Northern California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lozos, Julian C.; Harris, Ruth A.; Murray, Jessica R.; Lienkaemper, James J.

    2015-01-01

    The Bartlett Springs Fault (BSF), the easternmost branch of the northern San Andreas Fault system, creeps along much of its length. Geodetic data for the BSF are sparse, and surface creep rates are generally poorly constrained. The two existing geodetic slip rate inversions resolve at least one locked patch within the creeping zones. We use the 3-D finite element code FaultMod to conduct dynamic rupture models based on both geodetic inversions, in order to determine the ability of rupture to propagate into the creeping regions, as well as to assess possible magnitudes for BSF ruptures. For both sets of models, we find that the distribution of aseismic creep limits the extent of coseismic rupture, due to the contrast in frictional properties between the locked and creeping regions.

  18. Global Habitat Suitability and Ecological Niche Separation in the Phylum Placozoa.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Omid Paknia

    Full Text Available The enigmatic placozoans, which hold a key position in the metazoan Tree of Life, have attracted substantial attention in many areas of biological and biomedical research. While placozoans have become an emerging model system, their ecology and particularly biogeography remain widely unknown. In this study, we use modelling approaches to explore habitat preferences, and distribution pattern of the placozoans phylum. We provide hypotheses for discrete ecological niche separation between genetic placozoan lineages, which may also help to understand biogeography patterns in other small marine invertebrates. We, here, used maximum entropy modelling to predict placozoan distribution using 20 environmental grids of 9.2 km2 resolution. In addition, we used recently developed metrics of niche overlap to compare habitat suitability models of three genetic clades. The predicted distributions range from 55°N to 44°S and are restricted to regions of intermediate to warm sea surface temperatures. High concentrations of salinity and low nutrient concentrations appear as secondary factors. Tests of niche equivalency reveal the largest differences between placozoan clades I and III. Interestingly, the genetically well-separated clades I and V appear to be ecologically very similar. Our habitat suitability models predict a wider latitudinal distribution for placozoans, than currently described, especially in the northern hemisphere. With respect to biogeography modelling, placozoans show patterns somewhere between higher metazoan taxa and marine microorganisms, with the first group usually showing complex biogeographies and the second usually showing "no biogeography."

  19. The crosstalk between hematopoietic stem cells and their niches.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Durand, Charles; Charbord, Pierre; Jaffredo, Thierry

    2018-07-01

    Hematopoietic stem cells (HSCs) reside in specific microenvironments also called niches that regulate HSC functions. Understanding the molecular and cellular mechanisms involved in the crosstalk between HSCs and niche cells is a major issue in stem cell biology and regenerative medicine. The purpose of this review is to discuss recent advances in this field with particular emphasis on the transcriptional landscape of HSC niche cells and the roles of extracellular vesicles (EVs) in the dialog between HSCs and their microenvironments. The development of high-throughput technologies combined with computational methods has considerably improved our knowledge on the molecular identity of HSC niche cells. Accumulating evidence strongly suggest that the dialog between HSCs and their niches is bidirectional and that EVs play an important role in this process. These advances bring a unique conceptual and methodological framework for understanding the molecular complexity of the HSC niche and identifying novel HSC regulators. They are also promising for exploring the reciprocal influence of HSCs on niche cells and delivering specific molecules to HSCs in regenerative medicine.

  20. Stress Models of the Annual Hydrospheric, Atmospheric, Thermal, and Tidal Loading Cycles on California Faults: Perturbation of Background Stress and Changes in Seismicity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Christopher W.; Fu, Yuning; Bürgmann, Roland

    2017-12-01

    Stresses in the lithosphere arise from multiple natural loading sources that include both surface and body forces. The largest surface loads include near-surface water storage, snow and ice, atmosphere pressure, ocean loading, and temperature changes. The solid Earth also deforms from celestial body interactions and variations in Earth's rotation. We model the seasonal stress changes in California from 2006 through 2014 for seven different loading sources with annual periods to produce an aggregate stressing history for faults in the study area. Our modeling shows that the annual water loading, atmosphere, temperature, and Earth pole tides are the largest loading sources and should each be evaluated to fully describe seasonal stress changes. In California we find that the hydrological loads are the largest source of seasonal stresses. We explore the seasonal stresses with respect to the background principal stress orientation constrained with regional focal mechanisms and analyze the modulation of seismicity. Our results do not suggest a resolvable seasonal variation for the ambient stress orientation in the shallow crust. When projecting the seasonal stresses into the background stress orientation we find that the timing of microseismicity modestly increases from an 8 kPa seasonal mean-normal-stress perturbation. The results suggest that faults in California are optimally oriented with the background stress field and respond to subsurface pressure changes, possibly due to processes we have not considered in this study. At any time a population of faults are near failure as evident from earthquakes triggered by these slight seasonal stress perturbations.

  1. A statistical model for determining impact of wildland fires on Particulate Matter (PM₂.₅) in Central California aided by satellite imagery of smoke.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Preisler, Haiganoush K; Schweizer, Donald; Cisneros, Ricardo; Procter, Trent; Ruminski, Mark; Tarnay, Leland

    2015-10-01

    As the climate in California warms and wildfires become larger and more severe, satellite-based observational tools are frequently used for studying impact of those fires on air quality. However little objective work has been done to quantify the skill these satellite observations of smoke plumes have in predicting impacts to PM2.5 concentrations at ground level monitors, especially those monitors used to determine attainment values for air quality under the Clean Air Act. Using PM2.5 monitoring data from a suite of monitors throughout the Central California area, we found a significant, but weak relationship between satellite-observed smoke plumes and PM2.5 concentrations measured at the surface. However, when combined with an autoregressive statistical model that uses weather and seasonal factors to identify thresholds for flagging unusual events at these sites, we found that the presence of smoke plumes could reliably identify periods of wildfire influence with 95% accuracy. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  2. Evolution of climatic niche specialization: a phylogenetic analysis in amphibians.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonetti, Maria Fernanda; Wiens, John J

    2014-11-22

    The evolution of climatic niche specialization has important implications for many topics in ecology, evolution and conservation. The climatic niche reflects the set of temperature and precipitation conditions where a species can occur. Thus, specialization to a limited set of climatic conditions can be important for understanding patterns of biogeography, species richness, community structure, allopatric speciation, spread of invasive species and responses to climate change. Nevertheless, the factors that determine climatic niche width (level of specialization) remain poorly explored. Here, we test whether species that occur in more extreme climates are more highly specialized for those conditions, and whether there are trade-offs between niche widths on different climatic niche axes (e.g. do species that tolerate a broad range of temperatures tolerate only a limited range of precipitation regimes?). We test these hypotheses in amphibians, using phylogenetic comparative methods and global-scale datasets, including 2712 species with both climatic and phylogenetic data. Our results do not support either hypothesis. Rather than finding narrower niches in more extreme environments, niches tend to be narrower on one end of a climatic gradient but wider on the other. We also find that temperature and precipitation niche breadths are positively related, rather than showing trade-offs. Finally, our results suggest that most amphibian species occur in relatively warm and dry environments and have relatively narrow climatic niche widths on both of these axes. Thus, they may be especially imperilled by anthropogenic climate change. © 2014 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

  3. Synergistic selection between ecological niche and mate preference primes diversification.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boughman, Janette W; Svanbäck, Richard

    2017-01-01

    The ecological niche and mate preferences have independently been shown to be important for the process of speciation. Here, we articulate a novel mechanism by which ecological niche use and mate preference can be linked to promote speciation. The degree to which individual niches are narrow and clustered affects the strength of divergent natural selection and population splitting. Similarly, the degree to which individual mate preferences are narrow and clustered affects the strength of divergent sexual selection and assortative mating between diverging forms. This novel perspective is inspired by the literature on ecological niches; it also explores mate preferences and how they may contribute to speciation. Unlike much comparative work, we do not search for evolutionary patterns using proxies for adaptation and sexual selection, but rather we elucidate how ideas from niche theory relate to mate preference, and how this relationship can foster speciation. Recognizing that individual and population niches are conceptually and ecologically linked to individual and population mate preference functions will significantly increase our understanding of rapid evolutionary diversification in nature. It has potential to help solve the difficult challenge of testing the role of sexual selection in the speciation process. We also identify ecological factors that are likely to affect individual niche and individual mate preference in synergistic ways and as a consequence to promote speciation. The ecological niche an individual occupies can directly affect its mate preference. Clusters of individuals with narrow, differentiated niches are likely to have narrow, differentiated mate preference functions. Our approach integrates ecological and sexual selection research to further our understanding of diversification processes. Such integration may be necessary for progress because these processes seem inextricably linked in the natural world. © 2016 The Author(s). Evolution

  4. Habitat niche breadth predicts invasiveness in solitary ascidians.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Granot, Itai; Shenkar, Noa; Belmaker, Jonathan

    2017-10-01

    A major focus of invasion biology is understanding the traits associated with introduction success. Most studies assess these traits in the invaded region, while only few compare nonindigenous species to the pool of potential invaders in their native region. We focused on the niche breadth hypothesis , commonly evoked but seldom tested, which states that generalist species are more likely to become introduced as they are capable of thriving under a wide set of conditions. Based on the massive introduction of tropical species into the Mediterranean via the Suez Canal (Lessepsian migration), we defined ascidians in the Red Sea as the pool of potential invaders. We constructed unique settlement plates, each representing six different niches, to assess ascidian niche breadth, and deployed them in similar habitats in the native and invaded regions. For each species found on plates, we evaluated its abundance, relative abundance across successional stages, and niche breadth, and then compared (1) species in the Red Sea known to have been introduced into the Mediterranean (Lessepsian species) and those not known from the Mediterranean (non-Lessepsian); and (2) nonindigenous and indigenous species in the Mediterranean. Lessepsian species identified on plates in the Red Sea demonstrated wider niche breadth than non-Lessepsian species, supporting the niche breadth hypothesis within the native region. No differences were found between Lessepsian and non-Lessepsian species in species abundance and successional stages. In the Mediterranean, nonindigenous species numerically dominated the settlement plates. This precluded robust comparisons of niche breadth between nonindigenous and indigenous species in the invaded region. In conclusion, using Red Sea ascidians as the pool of potential invaders, we found clear evidence supporting the niche breadth hypothesis in the native region. We suggest that such patterns may often be obscured when conducting trait-based studies in the

  5. Environmental niche divergence among three dune shrub sister species with parapatric distributions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chozas, Sergio; Chefaoui, Rosa M; Correia, Otília; Bonal, Raúl; Hortal, Joaquín

    2017-05-01

    The geographical distributions of species are constrained by their ecological requirements. The aim of this work was to analyse the effects of environmental conditions, historical events and biogeographical constraints on the diversification of the three species of the western Mediterranean shrub genus Stauracanthus , which have a parapatric distribution in the Iberian Peninsula. Ecological niche factor analysis and generalized linear models were used to measure the response of all Stauracanthus species to the environmental gradients and map their potential distributions in the Iberian Peninsula. The bioclimatic niche overlap between the three species was determined by using Schoener's index. The genetic differentiation of the Iberian and northern African populations of Stauracanthus species was characterized with GenalEx. The effects on genetic distances of the most important environmental drivers were assessed through Mantel tests and non-metric multidimensional scaling. The three Stauracanthus species show remarkably similar responses to climatic conditions. This supports the idea that all members of this recently diversified clade retain common adaptations to climate and consequently high levels of climatic niche overlap. This contrasts with the diverse edaphic requirements of Stauracanthus species. The populations of the S. genistoides-spectabilis clade grow on Miocene and Pliocene fine-textured sedimentary soils, whereas S. boivinii , the more genetically distant species, occurs on older and more coarse-textured sedimentary substrates. These patterns of diversification are largely consistent with a stochastic process of geographical range expansion and fragmentation coupled with niche evolution in the context of spatially complex environmental fluctuations. : The combined analysis of the distribution, realized environmental niche and phylogeographical relationships of parapatric species proposed in this work allows integration of the biogeographical

  6. Stoicism and Civic Duty. Grade 7 Model Lesson for Standard 7.1. World History and Geography: Medieval and Early Modern Times. California History-Social Science Course Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zachlod, Michelle, Ed.

    California State Standard 7.1 is delineated in the following manner: "Students analyze the causes and effects of the vast expansion and ultimate disintegration of the Roman Empire." One important legacy of ancient Rome is the foundation it set for the development of modern democracies. The Roman Stoics built upon the Greek Stoic model by…

  7. California Political Districts

    Data.gov (United States)

    California Natural Resource Agency — This is a series of district layers pertaining to California'spolitical districts, that are derived from the California State Senateand State Assembly information....

  8. An Integrated Hydrologic Model and Remote Sensing Synthesis Approach to Study Groundwater Extraction During a Historic Drought in the California Central Valley

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thatch, L. M.; Maxwell, R. M.; Gilbert, J. M.

    2017-12-01

    Over the past century, groundwater levels in California's San Joaquin Valley have dropped more than 30 meters in some areas due to excessive groundwater extraction to irrigate agricultural lands and feed a growing population. Between 2012 and 2016 California experienced the worst drought in its recorded history, further exacerbating this groundwater depletion. Due to lack of groundwater regulation, exact quantities of extracted groundwater in California are unknown and hard to quantify. We use a synthesis of integrated hydrologic model simulations and remote sensing products to quantify the impact of drought and groundwater pumping on the Central Valley water tables. The Parflow-CLM model was used to evaluate groundwater depletion in the San Joaquin River basin under multiple groundwater extraction scenarios simulated from pre-drought through recent drought years. Extraction scenarios included pre-development conditions, with no groundwater pumping; historical conditions based on decreasing groundwater level measurements; and estimated groundwater extraction rates calculated from the deficit between the predicted crop water demand, based on county land use surveys, and available surface water supplies. Results were compared to NASA's Gravity Recover and Climate Experiment (GRACE) data products to constrain water table decline from groundwater extraction during severe drought. This approach untangles various factors leading to groundwater depletion within the San Joaquin Valley both during drought and years of normal recharge to help evaluate which areas are most susceptible to groundwater overdraft, as well as further evaluating the spatially and temporally variable sustainable yield. Recent efforts to improve water management and ensure reliable water supplies are highlighted by California's Sustainable Groundwater Management Act (SGMA) which mandates Groundwater Sustainability Agencies to determine the maximum quantity of groundwater that can be withdrawn through

  9. Inversion Estimate of California Methane Emissions Using a Bayesian Inverse Model with Multi-Tower Greenhouse Gas Monitoring Network and Aircraft Measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cui, Y.; Falk, M.; Chen, Y.; Herner, J.; Croes, B. E.; Vijayan, A.

    2017-12-01

    Methane (CH4) is an important short-lived climate pollutant (SLCP), and the second most important greenhouse gas (GHG) in California which accounts for 9% of the statewide GHG emissions inventory. Over the years, California has enacted several ambitious climate change mitigation goals, including the California Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006 which requires ARB to reduce statewide GHG emissions to 1990 emission level by 2020, as well as Assembly Bill 1383 which requires implementation of a climate mitigation program to reduce statewide methane emissions by 40% below the 2013 levels. In order to meet these requirements, ARB has proposed a comprehensive SLCP Strategy with goals to reduce oil and gas related emissions and capture methane emissions from dairy operations and organic waste. Achieving these goals will require accurate understanding of the sources of CH4 emissions. Since direct monitoring of CH4 emission sources in large spatial and temporal scales is challenging and resource intensive, we developed a complex inverse technique combined with atmospheric three-dimensional (3D) transport model and atmospheric observations of CH4 concentrations from a regional tower network and aircraft measurements, to gain insights into emission sources in California. In this study, develop a comprehensive inversion estimate using available aircraft measurements from CalNex airborne campaigns (May-June 2010) and three years of hourly continuous measurements from the ARB Statewide GHG Monitoring Network (2014-2016). The inversion analysis is conducted using two independent 3D Lagrangian models (WRF-STILT and WRF-FLEXPART), with a variety of bottom-up prior inputs from national and regional inventories, as well as two different probability density functions (Gaussian and Lognormal). Altogether, our analysis provides a detailed picture of the spatially resolved CH4 emission sources and their temporal variation over a multi-year period.

  10. The use of climatic niches in screening procedures for introduced species to evaluate risk of spread: a case with the American Eastern grey squirrel.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mirko Di Febbraro

    Full Text Available Species introduction represents one of the most serious threats for biodiversity. The realized climatic niche of an invasive species can be used to predict its potential distribution in new areas, providing a basis for screening procedures in the compilation of black and white lists to prevent new introductions. We tested this assertion by modeling the realized climatic niche of the Eastern grey squirrel Sciurus carolinensis. Maxent was used to develop three models: one considering only records from the native range (NRM, a second including records from native and invasive range (NIRM, a third calibrated with invasive occurrences and projected in the native range (RCM. Niche conservatism was tested considering both a niche equivalency and a niche similarity test. NRM failed to predict suitable parts of the currently invaded range in Europe, while RCM underestimated the suitability in the native range. NIRM accurately predicted both the native and invasive range. The niche equivalency hypothesis was rejected due to a significant difference between the grey squirrel's niche in native and invasive ranges. The niche similarity test yielded no significant results. Our analyses support the hypothesis of a shift in the species' climatic niche in the area of introductions. Species Distribution Models (SDMs appear to be a useful tool in the compilation of black lists, allowing identifying areas vulnerable to invasions. We advise caution in the use of SDMs based only on the native range of a species for the compilation of white lists for other geographic areas, due to the significant risk of underestimating its potential invasive range.

  11. A conceptual model for site-level ecology of the giant gartersnake (Thamnophis gigas) in the Sacramento Valley, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Halstead, Brian J.; Wylie, Glenn D.; Casazza, Michael L.; Hansen, Eric C.; Scherer, Rick D.; Patterson, Laura C.

    2015-08-14

    Giant gartersnakes (Thamnophis gigas) comprise a species of semi-aquatic snakes precinctive to marshes in the Central Valley of California (Hansen and Brode, 1980; Rossman and others, 1996). Because more than 90 percent of their historical wetland habitat has been converted to other uses (Frayer and others, 1989; Garone, 2007), giant gartersnakes have been listed as threatened by the State of California (California Department of Fish and Game Commission , 1971) and the United States (U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, 1993).