WorldWideScience

Sample records for california niche modeling

  1. Spatial analysis of plague in California: niche modeling predictions of the current distribution and potential response to climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tucker James R

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Plague, caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis, is a public and wildlife health concern in California and the western United States. This study explores the spatial characteristics of positive plague samples in California and tests Maxent, a machine-learning method that can be used to develop niche-based models from presence-only data, for mapping the potential distribution of plague foci. Maxent models were constructed using geocoded seroprevalence data from surveillance of California ground squirrels (Spermophilus beecheyi as case points and Worldclim bioclimatic data as predictor variables, and compared and validated using area under the receiver operating curve (AUC statistics. Additionally, model results were compared to locations of positive and negative coyote (Canis latrans samples, in order to determine the correlation between Maxent model predictions and areas of plague risk as determined via wild carnivore surveillance. Results Models of plague activity in California ground squirrels, based on recent climate conditions, accurately identified case locations (AUC of 0.913 to 0.948 and were significantly correlated with coyote samples. The final models were used to identify potential plague risk areas based on an ensemble of six future climate scenarios. These models suggest that by 2050, climate conditions may reduce plague risk in the southern parts of California and increase risk along the northern coast and Sierras. Conclusion Because different modeling approaches can yield substantially different results, care should be taken when interpreting future model predictions. Nonetheless, niche modeling can be a useful tool for exploring and mapping the potential response of plague activity to climate change. The final models in this study were used to identify potential plague risk areas based on an ensemble of six future climate scenarios, which can help public managers decide where to allocate surveillance resources

  2. Niche modelling of salt marsh plant species

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This study sought to extend the niche model of Spartina anglica to other salt marsh species, and to include tidal submergence in the models. The method used and preliminary data analysis are described. Tidal level and submergence niche models are examined, and niche width, niche overlap and species interaction are considered. Tidal level models and submergence niche models are compared for the 5 most common species. (UK)

  3. Niche models tell half the story

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Swab, Rebecca Marie; Regan, Helen M.; Keith, David A.;

    2012-01-01

    Aim  While niche models are typically used to assess the vulnerability of species to climate change, they have been criticized for their limited assessment of threats other than climate change. We attempt to evaluate this limitation by combining niche models with life-history models to investigat...

  4. EUBrazilOpenBio - Niche modelling services

    OpenAIRE

    Rebello, Vinod; De Giovanni, Renato; Candela, Leonardo

    2012-01-01

    This report concerns Ecological Niche Modelling - also known as environmental niche modelling - as used in the EUBrazilOpenBio Project to provide, through the aggregation of various computational and data technologies, a coherent and integrated research environment to be used by scientists and external applications, particularly from the area of biodiversity.

  5. A Niche Width Model of Optimal Specialization

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bruggeman, Jeroen; Ó Nualláin, Breanndán

    2000-01-01

    Niche width theory, a part of organizational ecology, predicts whether “specialist” or “generalist” forms of organizations have higher “fitness,” in a continually changing environment. To this end, niche width theory uses a mathematical model borrowed from biology. In this paper, we first loosen th

  6. Ditch the niche - is the niche a useful concept in ecology or species distribution modelling?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    McInerny, Greg J.; Etienne, Rampal S.

    2012-01-01

    In this first of three papers we examine the use of niche concepts in ecology and especially in species distribution modelling (SDM). This paper deliberately focuses on the lack of clarity found in the term niche. Because its meanings are so diverse, the term niche tends to create confusion and requ

  7. Niche

    OpenAIRE

    O'Donovan, Danielle

    2001-01-01

    Capital of middle niche/sedilia of south nave wall, moulding from top down comprises: chamfer, fillet, hollow, stiff-leaf foliage, bell, necking roll-and-fillet. Here again Early English characteristics are manifest but the niche may date from the later middle ages.

  8. The probabilistic niche model reveals substantial variation in the niche structure of empirical food webs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Richard J; Purves, Drew W

    2011-09-01

    The structure of food webs, complex networks of interspecies feeding interactions, plays a crucial role in ecosystem resilience and function, and understanding food web structure remains a central problem in ecology. Previous studies have shown that key features of empirical food webs can be reproduced by low-dimensional "niche" models. Here we examine the form and variability of food web niche structure by fitting a probabilistic niche model to 37 empirical food webs, a much larger number of food webs than used in previous studies. The model relaxes previous assumptions about parameter distributions and hierarchy and returns parameter estimates for each species in each web. The model significantly outperforms previous niche model variants and also performs well for several webs where a body-size-based niche model performs poorly, implying that traits other than body size are important in structuring these webs' niche space. Parameter estimates frequently violate previous models' assumptions: in 19 of 37 webs, parameter values are not significantly hierarchical, 32 of 37 webs have nonuniform niche value distributions, and 15 of 37 webs lack a correlation between niche width and niche position. Extending the model to a two-dimensional niche space yields networks with a mixture of one- and two-dimensional niches and provides a significantly better fit for webs with a large number of species and links. These results confirm that food webs are strongly niche-structured but reveal substantial variation in the form of the niche structuring, a result with fundamental implications for ecosystem resilience and function.

  9. Niche

    OpenAIRE

    O'Donovan, Danielle

    2001-01-01

    Arch and hood moulding of westernmost niche of south nave wall. Arch moulding from inner surface comprises: chamfer, flat surface, hollow, roll-and-fillet, roll, hollow, chamfer, flat surface of wall. The hood, from outside face to inner comprises: roll-and-fillet, hollow, chamfer. The style of this moulding can best be described as debased Early English. The roll-and-fillet is particularly deformed.

  10. Evaluating correlative and mechanistic niche models for assessing the risk of pest establishment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ecological niche modeling was used to assess the risk of establishment of western cherry fruit fly, Rhagoletis indifferens Curran (Diptera: Tephritidae), in sweet cherry, Prunus avium (L.) L., in the commercial cherry-growing areas of California. We integrated species occurrence records and spatial...

  11. The Probabilistic Niche Model Reveals the Niche Structure and Role of Body Size in a Complex Food Web

    OpenAIRE

    Richard J Williams; Ananthi Anandanadesan; Drew Purves

    2010-01-01

    The niche model has been widely used to model the structure of complex food webs, and yet the ecological meaning of the single niche dimension has not been explored. In the niche model, each species has three traits, niche position, diet position and feeding range. Here, a new probabilistic niche model, which allows the maximum likelihood set of trait values to be estimated for each species, is applied to the food web of the Benguela fishery. We also developed the allometric niche model, in w...

  12. The probabilistic niche model reveals the niche structure and role of body size in a complex food web.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richard J Williams

    Full Text Available The niche model has been widely used to model the structure of complex food webs, and yet the ecological meaning of the single niche dimension has not been explored. In the niche model, each species has three traits, niche position, diet position and feeding range. Here, a new probabilistic niche model, which allows the maximum likelihood set of trait values to be estimated for each species, is applied to the food web of the Benguela fishery. We also developed the allometric niche model, in which body size is used as the niche dimension. About 80% of the links in the empirical data are predicted by the probabilistic niche model, a significant improvement over recent models. As in the niche model, species are uniformly distributed on the niche axis. Feeding ranges are exponentially distributed, but diet positions are not uniformly distributed below the predator. Species traits are strongly correlated with body size, but the allometric niche model performs significantly worse than the probabilistic niche model. The best-fit parameter set provides a significantly better model of the structure of the Benguela food web than was previously available. The methodology allows the identification of a number of taxa that stand out as outliers either in the model's poor performance at predicting their predators or prey or in their parameter values. While important, body size alone does not explain the structure of the one-dimensional niche.

  13. GIS-based niche modeling for mapping species' habitat.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rotenberry, John T; Preston, Kristine L; Knick, Steven T

    2006-06-01

    Ecological "niche modeling" using presence-only locality data and large-scale environmental variables provides a powerful tool for identifying and mapping suitable habitat for species over large spatial extents. We describe a niche modeling approach that identifies a minimum (rather than an optimum) set of basic habitat requirements for a species, based on the assumption that constant environmental relationships in a species' distribution (i.e., variables that maintain a consistent value where the species occurs) are most likely to be associated with limiting factors. Environmental variables that take on a wide range of values where a species occurs are less informative because they do not limit a species' distribution, at least over the range of variation sampled. This approach is operationalized by partitioning Mahalanobis D2 (standardized difference between values of a set of environmental variables for any point and mean values for those same variables calculated from all points at which a species was detected) into independent components. The smallest of these components represents the linear combination of variables with minimum variance; increasingly larger components represent larger variances and are increasingly less limiting. We illustrate this approach using the California Gnatcatcher (Polioptila californica Brewster) and provide SAS code to implement it.

  14. Mechanistic and Correlative Models of Ecological Niches

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peterson A. Townsend

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The suite of factors that drives where and under what conditions a species occurs has become the focus of intense research interest. Three general categories of methods have emerged by which researchers address questions in this area: mechanistic models of species’ requirements in terms of environmental conditions that are based on first principles of biophysics and physiology, correlational models based on environmental associations derived from analyses of geographic occurrences of species, and process-based simulations that estimate occupied distributional areas and associated environments from assumptions about niche dimensions and dispersal abilities. We review strengths and weaknesses of these sets of approaches, and identify significant advantages and disadvantages of each. Rather than identifying one or the other as ‘better,’ we suggest that researchers take great care to use the method best-suited to each specific research question, and be conscious of the weaknesses of any method, such that inappropriate interpretations are avoided.

  15. GIS-based niche modeling for mapping species' habitats

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rotenberry, J.T.; Preston, K.L.; Knick, S.

    2006-01-01

    Ecological a??niche modelinga?? using presence-only locality data and large-scale environmental variables provides a powerful tool for identifying and mapping suitable habitat for species over large spatial extents. We describe a niche modeling approach that identifies a minimum (rather than an optimum) set of basic habitat requirements for a species, based on the assumption that constant environmental relationships in a species' distribution (i.e., variables that maintain a consistent value where the species occurs) are most likely to be associated with limiting factors. Environmental variables that take on a wide range of values where a species occurs are less informative because they do not limit a species' distribution, at least over the range of variation sampled. This approach is operationalized by partitioning Mahalanobis D2 (standardized difference between values of a set of environmental variables for any point and mean values for those same variables calculated from all points at which a species was detected) into independent components. The smallest of these components represents the linear combination of variables with minimum variance; increasingly larger components represent larger variances and are increasingly less limiting. We illustrate this approach using the California Gnatcatcher (Polioptila californica Brewster) and provide SAS code to implement it.

  16. INVASIVE SPECIES: PREDICTING GEOGRAPHIC DISTRIBUTIONS USING ECOLOGICAL NICHE MODELING

    Science.gov (United States)

    Present approaches to species invasions are reactive in nature. This scenario results in management that perpetually lags behind the most recent invasion and makes control much more difficult. In contrast, spatially explicit ecological niche modeling provides an effective solut...

  17. Advances and Limitations of Disease Biogeography Using Ecological Niche Modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Escobar, Luis E; Craft, Meggan E

    2016-01-01

    Mapping disease transmission risk is crucial in public and animal health for evidence based decision-making. Ecology and epidemiology are highly related disciplines that may contribute to improvements in mapping disease, which can be used to answer health related questions. Ecological niche modeling is increasingly used for understanding the biogeography of diseases in plants, animals, and humans. However, epidemiological applications of niche modeling approaches for disease mapping can fail to generate robust study designs, producing incomplete or incorrect inferences. This manuscript is an overview of the history and conceptual bases behind ecological niche modeling, specifically as applied to epidemiology and public health; it does not pretend to be an exhaustive and detailed description of ecological niche modeling literature and methods. Instead, this review includes selected state-of-the-science approaches and tools, providing a short guide to designing studies incorporating information on the type and quality of the input data (i.e., occurrences and environmental variables), identification and justification of the extent of the study area, and encourages users to explore and test diverse algorithms for more informed conclusions. We provide a friendly introduction to the field of disease biogeography presenting an updated guide for researchers looking to use ecological niche modeling for disease mapping. We anticipate that ecological niche modeling will soon be a critical tool for epidemiologists aiming to map disease transmission risk, forecast disease distribution under climate change scenarios, and identify landscape factors triggering outbreaks. PMID:27547199

  18. Advances and Limitations of Disease Biogeography Using Ecological Niche Modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Escobar, Luis E; Craft, Meggan E

    2016-01-01

    Mapping disease transmission risk is crucial in public and animal health for evidence based decision-making. Ecology and epidemiology are highly related disciplines that may contribute to improvements in mapping disease, which can be used to answer health related questions. Ecological niche modeling is increasingly used for understanding the biogeography of diseases in plants, animals, and humans. However, epidemiological applications of niche modeling approaches for disease mapping can fail to generate robust study designs, producing incomplete or incorrect inferences. This manuscript is an overview of the history and conceptual bases behind ecological niche modeling, specifically as applied to epidemiology and public health; it does not pretend to be an exhaustive and detailed description of ecological niche modeling literature and methods. Instead, this review includes selected state-of-the-science approaches and tools, providing a short guide to designing studies incorporating information on the type and quality of the input data (i.e., occurrences and environmental variables), identification and justification of the extent of the study area, and encourages users to explore and test diverse algorithms for more informed conclusions. We provide a friendly introduction to the field of disease biogeography presenting an updated guide for researchers looking to use ecological niche modeling for disease mapping. We anticipate that ecological niche modeling will soon be a critical tool for epidemiologists aiming to map disease transmission risk, forecast disease distribution under climate change scenarios, and identify landscape factors triggering outbreaks.

  19. Advances and Limitations of Disease Biogeography Using Ecological Niche Modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luis E Escobar

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Mapping disease transmission risk is crucial in public and animal health for evidence based decision-making. Ecology and epidemiology are highly related disciplines that may contribute to improvements in mapping disease, which can be used to answer health related questions. Ecological niche modeling is increasingly used for understanding the biogeography of diseases in plants, animals, and humans. However, epidemiological applications of niche modeling approaches can fail to generate robust study designs, generating incomplete or incorrect inferences. This manuscript is an overview of the history and conceptual bases behind ecological niche modeling, specifically as applied to epidemiology and public health; it does not pretend to be an exhaustive and detailed description of ecological niche modeling literature and methods. Instead, this review includes selected state-of-the-science approaches and tools, providing a short guide to designing studies incorporating information on the type and quality of the input data (i.e., occurrences and environmental variables, identification and justification of the extent of the study area, and encourages users to explore and test diverse algorithms for more informed conclusions. We provide a friendly introduction to the field of disease biogeography presenting an updated guide for researchers looking to use ecological niche modeling for disease mapping. We anticipate that ecological niche modeling will soon be a critical tool for epidemiologists aiming to map disease transmission risk, forecast disease distribution under climate change scenarios, and identify landscape factors triggering outbreaks.

  20. Advances and Limitations of Disease Biogeography Using Ecological Niche Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Escobar, Luis E.; Craft, Meggan E.

    2016-01-01

    Mapping disease transmission risk is crucial in public and animal health for evidence based decision-making. Ecology and epidemiology are highly related disciplines that may contribute to improvements in mapping disease, which can be used to answer health related questions. Ecological niche modeling is increasingly used for understanding the biogeography of diseases in plants, animals, and humans. However, epidemiological applications of niche modeling approaches for disease mapping can fail to generate robust study designs, producing incomplete or incorrect inferences. This manuscript is an overview of the history and conceptual bases behind ecological niche modeling, specifically as applied to epidemiology and public health; it does not pretend to be an exhaustive and detailed description of ecological niche modeling literature and methods. Instead, this review includes selected state-of-the-science approaches and tools, providing a short guide to designing studies incorporating information on the type and quality of the input data (i.e., occurrences and environmental variables), identification and justification of the extent of the study area, and encourages users to explore and test diverse algorithms for more informed conclusions. We provide a friendly introduction to the field of disease biogeography presenting an updated guide for researchers looking to use ecological niche modeling for disease mapping. We anticipate that ecological niche modeling will soon be a critical tool for epidemiologists aiming to map disease transmission risk, forecast disease distribution under climate change scenarios, and identify landscape factors triggering outbreaks. PMID:27547199

  1. Introducing BioSARN - an ecological niche model refinement tool.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heap, Marshall J

    2016-08-01

    Environmental niche modeling outputs a biological species' potential distribution. Further work is needed to arrive at a species' realized distribution. The Biological Species Approximate Realized Niche (BioSARN) application provides the ecological modeler with a toolset to refine Environmental niche models (ENMs). These tools include soil and land class filtering, niche area quantification and novelties like enhanced temporal corridor definition, and output to a high spatial resolution land class model. BioSARN is exemplified with a study on Fraser fir, a tree species with strong land class and edaphic correlations. Soil and land class filtering caused the potential distribution area to decline 17%. Enhanced temporal corridor definition permitted distinction of current, continuing, and future niches, and thus niche change and movement. Tile quantification analysis provided further corroboration of these trends. BioSARN does not substitute other established ENM methods. Rather, it allows the experimenter to work with their preferred ENM, refining it using their knowledge and experience. Output from lower spatial resolution ENMs to a high spatial resolution land class model is a pseudo high-resolution result. Still, it maybe the best that can be achieved until wide range high spatial resolution environmental data and accurate high precision species occurrence data become generally available.

  2. Introducing BioSARN - an ecological niche model refinement tool.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heap, Marshall J

    2016-08-01

    Environmental niche modeling outputs a biological species' potential distribution. Further work is needed to arrive at a species' realized distribution. The Biological Species Approximate Realized Niche (BioSARN) application provides the ecological modeler with a toolset to refine Environmental niche models (ENMs). These tools include soil and land class filtering, niche area quantification and novelties like enhanced temporal corridor definition, and output to a high spatial resolution land class model. BioSARN is exemplified with a study on Fraser fir, a tree species with strong land class and edaphic correlations. Soil and land class filtering caused the potential distribution area to decline 17%. Enhanced temporal corridor definition permitted distinction of current, continuing, and future niches, and thus niche change and movement. Tile quantification analysis provided further corroboration of these trends. BioSARN does not substitute other established ENM methods. Rather, it allows the experimenter to work with their preferred ENM, refining it using their knowledge and experience. Output from lower spatial resolution ENMs to a high spatial resolution land class model is a pseudo high-resolution result. Still, it maybe the best that can be achieved until wide range high spatial resolution environmental data and accurate high precision species occurrence data become generally available. PMID:27547356

  3. Ecologic Niche Modeling of Blastomyces dermatitidis in Wisconsin

    OpenAIRE

    Reed, Kurt D.; Meece, Jennifer K.; Archer, John R.; Peterson, A. Townsend

    2008-01-01

    Background Blastomycosis is a potentially fatal mycosis that is acquired by inhaling infectious spores of Blastomyces dermatitidis present in the environment. The ecology of this pathogen is poorly understood, in part because it has been extremely difficult to identify the niche(s) it occupies based on culture isolation of the organism from environmental samples. Methodology/Principal Findings We investigated the ecology of blastomycosis by performing maximum entropy modeling of exposure site...

  4. A Mechanistic Niche Model for Measuring Species' Distributional Responses to Seasonal Temperature Gradients

    OpenAIRE

    Monahan, William B.

    2009-01-01

    Niche theory is central to understanding how species respond geographically to climate change. It defines a species' realized niche in a biological community, its fundamental niche as determined by physiology, and its potential niche--the fundamental niche in a given environment or geographic space. However, most predictions of the effects of climate change on species' distributions are limited to correlative models of the realized niche, which assume that species are in distributional equili...

  5. Ecological Niche Modelling of Bank Voles in Western Europe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sara Amirpour Haredasht

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The bank vole (Myodes glareolus is the natural host of Puumala virus (PUUV in vast areas of Europe. PUUV is one of the hantaviruses which are transmitted to humans by infected rodents. PUUV causes a general mild form of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS called nephropathia epidemica (NE. Vector-borne and zoonotic diseases generally display clear spatial patterns due to different space-dependent factors. Land cover influences disease transmission by controlling both the spatial distribution of vectors or hosts, as well as by facilitating the human contact with them. In this study the use of ecological niche modelling (ENM for predicting the geographical distribution of bank vole population on the basis of spatial climate information is tested. The Genetic Algorithm for Rule-set Prediction (GARP is used to model the ecological niche of bank voles in Western Europe. The meteorological data, land cover types and geo-referenced points representing the locations of the bank voles (latitude/longitude in the study area are used as the primary model input value. The predictive accuracy of the bank vole ecologic niche model was significant (training accuracy of 86%. The output of the GARP models based on the 50% subsets of points used for testing the model showed an accuracy of 75%. Compared with random models, the probability of such high predictivity was low (χ2 tests, p < 10−6. As such, the GARP models were predictive and the used ecologic niche model indeed indicates the ecologic requirements of bank voles. This approach successfully identified the areas of infection risk across the study area. The result suggests that the niche modelling approach can be implemented in a next step towards the development of new tools for monitoring the bank vole’s population.

  6. A synthesis of transplant experiments and ecological niche models suggests that range limits are often niche limits.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee-Yaw, Julie A; Kharouba, Heather M; Bontrager, Megan; Mahony, Colin; Csergő, Anna Mária; Noreen, Annika M E; Li, Qin; Schuster, Richard; Angert, Amy L

    2016-06-01

    Global change has made it important to understand the factors that shape species' distributions. Central to this area of research is the question of whether species' range limits primarily reflect the distribution of suitable habitat (i.e. niche limits) or arise as a result of dispersal limitation. Over-the-edge transplant experiments and ecological niche models are commonly used to address this question, yet few studies have taken advantage of a combined approach for inferring the causes of range limits. Here, we synthesise results from existing transplant experiments with new information on the predicted suitability of sites based on niche models. We found that individual performance and habitat suitability independently decline beyond range limits across multiple species. Furthermore, inferences from transplant experiments and niche models were generally concordant within species, with 31 out of 40 cases fully supporting the hypothesis that range limits are niche limits. These results suggest that range limits are often niche limits and that the factors constraining species' ranges operate at scales detectable by both transplant experiments and niche models. In light of these findings, we outline an integrative framework for addressing the causes of range limits in individual species. PMID:27111656

  7. Modelling Size Structured Food Webs Using a Modified Niche Model with Two Predator Traits

    OpenAIRE

    Klecka, Jan

    2014-01-01

    The structure of food webs is frequently described using phenomenological stochastic models. A prominent example, the niche model, was found to produce artificial food webs resembling real food webs according to a range of summary statistics. However, the size structure of food webs generated by the niche model and real food webs has not yet been rigorously compared. To fill this void, I use a body mass based version of the niche model and compare prey-predator body mass allometry and predato...

  8. Introducing MERGANSER: A Flexible Framework for Ecological Niche Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klawonn, M.; Dow, E. M.

    2015-12-01

    Ecological Niche Modeling (ENM) is a collection of techniques to find a "fundamental niche", the range of environmental conditions suitable for a species' survival in the absence of inter-species interactions, given a set of environmental parameters. Traditional approaches to ENM face a number of obstacles including limited data accessibility, data management problems, computational costs, interface usability, and model validation. The MERGANSER system, which stands for Modeling Ecological Residency Given A Normalized Set of Environmental Records, addresses these issues through powerful data persistence and flexible data access, coupled with a clear presentation of results and fine-tuned control over model parameters. MERGANSER leverages data measuring 72 weather related phenomena, land cover, soil type, population, species occurrence, general species information, and elevation, totaling over 1.5 TB of data. To the best of the authors' knowledge, MERGANSER uses higher-resolution spatial data sets than previously published models. Since MERGANSER stores data in an instance of Apache SOLR, layers generated in support of niche models are accessible to users via simplified Apache Lucene queries. This is made even simpler via an HTTP front end that generates Lucene queries automatically. Specifically, a user need only enter the name of a place and a species to run a model. Using this approach to synthesizing model layers, the MERGANSER system has successfully reproduced previously published niche model results with a simplified user experience. Input layers for the model are generated dynamically using OpenStreetMap and SOLR's spatial search functionality. Models are then run using either user-specified or automatically determined parameters after normalizing them into a common grid. Finally, results are visualized in the web interface, which allows for quick validation. Model results and all surrounding metadata are also accessible to the user for further study.

  9. The inverse niche model for food webs with parasites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Warren, Christopher P.; Pascual, Mercedes; Lafferty, Kevin D.; Kuris, Armand M.

    2010-01-01

    Although parasites represent an important component of ecosystems, few field and theoretical studies have addressed the structure of parasites in food webs. We evaluate the structure of parasitic links in an extensive salt marsh food web, with a new model distinguishing parasitic links from non-parasitic links among free-living species. The proposed model is an extension of the niche model for food web structure, motivated by the potential role of size (and related metabolic rates) in structuring food webs. The proposed extension captures several properties observed in the data, including patterns of clustering and nestedness, better than does a random model. By relaxing specific assumptions, we demonstrate that two essential elements of the proposed model are the similarity of a parasite's hosts and the increasing degree of parasite specialization, along a one-dimensional niche axis. Thus, inverting one of the basic rules of the original model, the one determining consumers' generality appears critical. Our results support the role of size as one of the organizing principles underlying niche space and food web topology. They also strengthen the evidence for the non-random structure of parasitic links in food webs and open the door to addressing questions concerning the consequences and origins of this structure.

  10. Range bagging: a new method for ecological niche modelling from presence-only data

    OpenAIRE

    Drake, John M

    2015-01-01

    The ecological niche is the set of environments in which a population of a species can persist without introduction of individuals from other locations. A good mathematical or computational representation of the niche is a prerequisite to addressing many questions in ecology, biogeography, evolutionary biology and conservation. A particularly challenging question for ecological niche modelling is the problem of presence-only modelling. That is, can an ecological niche be identified from recor...

  11. Modelling the regenerative niche: a major challenge in biomaterials research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirkpatrick, C James

    2015-12-01

    By definition, biomaterials are developed for clinical application. In the field of regenerative medicine their principal function is to play a significant, and, if possible, an instructive role in tissue healing. In the last analysis the latter involves targeting the 'regenerative niche'. The present paper will address the problem of simulating this niche in the laboratory and adopts a life science approach involving the harnessing of heterotypic cellular communication to achieve this, that is, the ability of cells of different types to mutually influence cellular functions. Thus, co-culture systems using human cells are the methodological focus and will concern four exemplary fields of regeneration, namely, bone, soft tissue, lower respiratory tract and airway regeneration. The working hypothesis underlying this approach is that in vitro models of higher complexity will be more clinically relevant than simple monolayer cultures of transformed cell lines in testing innovative strategies with biomaterials for regeneration. PMID:26816650

  12. Modelling the meteorological forest fire niche in heterogeneous pyrologic conditions.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonella De Angelis

    Full Text Available Fire regimes are strongly related to weather conditions that directly and indirectly influence fire ignition and propagation. Identifying the most important meteorological fire drivers is thus fundamental for daily fire risk forecasting. In this context, several fire weather indices have been developed focussing mainly on fire-related local weather conditions and fuel characteristics. The specificity of the conditions for which fire danger indices are developed makes its direct transfer and applicability problematic in different areas or with other fuel types. In this paper we used the low-to-intermediate fire-prone region of Canton Ticino as a case study to develop a new daily fire danger index by implementing a niche modelling approach (Maxent. In order to identify the most suitable weather conditions for fires, different combinations of input variables were tested (meteorological variables, existing fire danger indices or a combination of both. Our findings demonstrate that such combinations of input variables increase the predictive power of the resulting index and surprisingly even using meteorological variables only allows similar or better performances than using the complex Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI. Furthermore, the niche modelling approach based on Maxent resulted in slightly improved model performance and in a reduced number of selected variables with respect to the classical logistic approach. Factors influencing final model robustness were the number of fire events considered and the specificity of the meteorological conditions leading to fire ignition.

  13. Improving ecological niche model transferability to predict the potential distribution of invasive exotic species

    OpenAIRE

    Gengping Zhu; Qiang Liu; Yubao Gao

    2014-01-01

    Ecological niche modeling (ENM) seeks to characterize the ecological requirements of species using their occurrence in association with environmental variables. The classic applications of ENM to biological invasions involve the calibration of niche modeling in the native range and the subsequent transfer of the calibrated models to other regions to predict areas of potential invasion. However, low niche model transferability has been reported in certain cases, resulting in artifactual conclu...

  14. Consequences of spatial autocorrelation for niche-based models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Segurado, P.; Araújo, Miguel B.; Kunin, W. E.

    2006-01-01

    of the original variables. Univariate models of species' distributions using generalized linear models (GLM), generalized additive models (GAM) and classification tree analysis (CTA) were fitted for each variable permutation. Variation of accuracy measures with spatial autocorrelation of the original predictor......1.  Spatial autocorrelation is an important source of bias in most spatial analyses. We explored the bias introduced by spatial autocorrelation on the explanatory and predictive power of species' distribution models, and make recommendations for dealing with the problem. 2.  Analyses were based...... of significance based on randomizations were obtained. 3.  Spatial autocorrelation was shown to represent a serious problem for niche-based species' distribution models. Significance values were found to be inflated up to 90-fold. 4.  In general, GAM and CTA performed better than GLM, although all three methods...

  15. Ecologic niche modeling of Blastomyces dermatitidis in Wisconsin.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kurt D Reed

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Blastomycosis is a potentially fatal mycosis that is acquired by inhaling infectious spores of Blastomyces dermatitidis present in the environment. The ecology of this pathogen is poorly understood, in part because it has been extremely difficult to identify the niche(s it occupies based on culture isolation of the organism from environmental samples. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We investigated the ecology of blastomycosis by performing maximum entropy modeling of exposure sites from 156 cases of human and canine blastomycosis to provide a regional-scale perspective of the geographic and ecologic distribution of B. dermatitidis in Wisconsin. Based on analysis with climatic, topographic, surface reflectance and other environmental variables, we predicted that ecologic conditions favorable for maintaining the fungus in nature occur predominantly within northern counties and counties along the western shoreline of Lake Michigan. Areas of highest predicted occurrence were often in proximity to waterways, especially in northcentral Wisconsin, where incidence of infection is highest. Ecologic conditions suitable for B. dermatitidis are present in urban and rural environments, and may differ at the extremes of distribution of the species in the state. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our results provide a framework for a more informed search for specific environmental factors modulating B. dermatitidis occurrence and transmission and will be useful for improving public health awareness of relative exposure risks.

  16. Framework for analyzing ecological trait-based models in multidimensional niche spaces

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biancalani, Tommaso; DeVille, Lee; Goldenfeld, Nigel

    2015-05-01

    We develop a theoretical framework for analyzing ecological models with a multidimensional niche space. Our approach relies on the fact that ecological niches are described by sequences of symbols, which allows us to include multiple phenotypic traits. Ecological drivers, such as competitive exclusion, are modeled by introducing the Hamming distance between two sequences. We show that a suitable transform diagonalizes the community interaction matrix of these models, making it possible to predict the conditions for niche differentiation and, close to the instability onset, the asymptotically long time population distributions of niches. We exemplify our method using the Lotka-Volterra equations with an exponential competition kernel.

  17. A mechanistic niche model for measuring species' distributional responses to seasonal temperature gradients.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    William B Monahan

    Full Text Available Niche theory is central to understanding how species respond geographically to climate change. It defines a species' realized niche in a biological community, its fundamental niche as determined by physiology, and its potential niche--the fundamental niche in a given environment or geographic space. However, most predictions of the effects of climate change on species' distributions are limited to correlative models of the realized niche, which assume that species are in distributional equilibrium with respect to the variables or gradients included in the model. Here, I present a mechanistic niche model that measures species' responses to major seasonal temperature gradients that interact with the physiology of the organism. I then use lethal physiological temperatures to parameterize the model for bird species in North and South America and show that most focal bird species are not in direct physiological equilibrium with the gradients. Results also show that most focal bird species possess broad thermal tolerances encompassing novel climates that could become available with climate change. I conclude with discussion of how mechanistic niche models may be used to (i gain insights into the processes that cause species to respond to climate change and (ii build more accurate correlative distribution models in birds and other species.

  18. Improved Predictions of the Geographic Distribution of Invasive Plants Using Climatic Niche Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramírez-Albores, Jorge E; Bustamante, Ramiro O; Badano, Ernesto I

    2016-01-01

    Climatic niche models for invasive plants are usually constructed with occurrence records taken from literature and collections. Because these data neither discriminate among life-cycle stages of plants (adult or juvenile) nor the origin of individuals (naturally established or man-planted), the resulting models may mispredict the distribution ranges of these species. We propose that more accurate predictions could be obtained by modelling climatic niches with data of naturally established individuals, particularly with occurrence records of juvenile plants because this would restrict the predictions of models to those sites where climatic conditions allow the recruitment of the species. To test this proposal, we focused on the Peruvian peppertree (Schinus molle), a South American species that has largely invaded Mexico. Three climatic niche models were constructed for this species using high-resolution dataset gathered in the field. The first model included all occurrence records, irrespective of the life-cycle stage or origin of peppertrees (generalized niche model). The second model only included occurrence records of naturally established mature individuals (adult niche model), while the third model was constructed with occurrence records of naturally established juvenile plants (regeneration niche model). When models were compared, the generalized climatic niche model predicted the presence of peppertrees in sites located farther beyond the climatic thresholds that naturally established individuals can tolerate, suggesting that human activities influence the distribution of this invasive species. The adult and regeneration climatic niche models concurred in their predictions about the distribution of peppertrees, suggesting that naturally established adult trees only occur in sites where climatic conditions allow the recruitment of juvenile stages. These results support the proposal that climatic niches of invasive plants should be modelled with data of

  19. Improved Predictions of the Geographic Distribution of Invasive Plants Using Climatic Niche Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramírez-Albores, Jorge E.; Bustamante, Ramiro O.

    2016-01-01

    Climatic niche models for invasive plants are usually constructed with occurrence records taken from literature and collections. Because these data neither discriminate among life-cycle stages of plants (adult or juvenile) nor the origin of individuals (naturally established or man-planted), the resulting models may mispredict the distribution ranges of these species. We propose that more accurate predictions could be obtained by modelling climatic niches with data of naturally established individuals, particularly with occurrence records of juvenile plants because this would restrict the predictions of models to those sites where climatic conditions allow the recruitment of the species. To test this proposal, we focused on the Peruvian peppertree (Schinus molle), a South American species that has largely invaded Mexico. Three climatic niche models were constructed for this species using high-resolution dataset gathered in the field. The first model included all occurrence records, irrespective of the life-cycle stage or origin of peppertrees (generalized niche model). The second model only included occurrence records of naturally established mature individuals (adult niche model), while the third model was constructed with occurrence records of naturally established juvenile plants (regeneration niche model). When models were compared, the generalized climatic niche model predicted the presence of peppertrees in sites located farther beyond the climatic thresholds that naturally established individuals can tolerate, suggesting that human activities influence the distribution of this invasive species. The adult and regeneration climatic niche models concurred in their predictions about the distribution of peppertrees, suggesting that naturally established adult trees only occur in sites where climatic conditions allow the recruitment of juvenile stages. These results support the proposal that climatic niches of invasive plants should be modelled with data of

  20. Locating pleistocene refugia: comparing phylogeographic and ecological niche model predictions.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eric Waltari

    Full Text Available Ecological niche models (ENMs provide a means of characterizing the spatial distribution of suitable conditions for species, and have recently been applied to the challenge of locating potential distributional areas at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM when unfavorable climate conditions led to range contractions and fragmentation. Here, we compare and contrast ENM-based reconstructions of LGM refugial locations with those resulting from the more traditional molecular genetic and phylogeographic predictions. We examined 20 North American terrestrial vertebrate species from different regions and with different range sizes for which refugia have been identified based on phylogeographic analyses, using ENM tools to make parallel predictions. We then assessed the correspondence between the two approaches based on spatial overlap and areal extent of the predicted refugia. In 14 of the 20 species, the predictions from ENM and predictions based on phylogeographic studies were significantly spatially correlated, suggesting that the two approaches to development of refugial maps are converging on a similar result. Our results confirm that ENM scenario exploration can provide a useful complement to molecular studies, offering a less subjective, spatially explicit hypothesis of past geographic patterns of distribution.

  1. To predict the niche, model colonization and extinction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yackulic, Charles B.; Nichols, James D.; Reid, Janice; Der, Ricky

    2015-01-01

    Ecologists frequently try to predict the future geographic distributions of species. Most studies assume that the current distribution of a species reflects its environmental requirements (i.e., the species' niche). However, the current distributions of many species are unlikely to be at equilibrium with the current distribution of environmental conditions, both because of ongoing invasions and because the distribution of suitable environmental conditions is always changing. This mismatch between the equilibrium assumptions inherent in many analyses and the disequilibrium conditions in the real world leads to inaccurate predictions of species' geographic distributions and suggests the need for theory and analytical tools that avoid equilibrium assumptions. Here, we develop a general theory of environmental associations during periods of transient dynamics. We show that time-invariant relationships between environmental conditions and rates of local colonization and extinction can produce substantial temporal variation in occupancy–environment relationships. We then estimate occupancy–environment relationships during three avian invasions. Changes in occupancy–environment relationships over time differ among species but are predicted by dynamic occupancy models. Since estimates of the occupancy–environment relationships themselves are frequently poor predictors of future occupancy patterns, research should increasingly focus on characterizing how rates of local colonization and extinction vary with environmental conditions.

  2. EVOLUTIONARY DYNAMIC MODEL OF POPULATION WITH NICHE CONSTRUCTION AND ITS APPLICATION RESEARCH

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2006-01-01

    Based on the theories and approaches in biomechanics, the mechanism and pattern of niche construction were discussed systematically. Through establishing the spatial pattern of niche and its measuring-fitness formula, and the dynamic system models of single- and two-population with niche construction, including corresponding theoretical analysis and numerical simulation on their evolutionary dynamics of population and the mechanism of competitive coexistence, the co-evolutionary relationship between organisms and their environments was revealed. The results indicate that population dynamics is governed by positive feedback between primary ecological factors and resource content.Niche construction generates an evolutionary effect in system by influencing the fitness of population. A threshold effect exists in single population dynamic system. In dynamic system of two competitive populations, niche construction can lead to alternative competitive consequences, which may be a potential mechanism to explain the competitive coexistence of species.

  3. Biodiversity patterns from an individual-based competition model on niche and physical spaces

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    We formulate a microscopic (individual-based and spatially explicit) ecological model to assess whether key patterns of community structure, species-packing and the spatial distribution of species are robust to relaxing the mean-field approximation made in classical ecological models. In this model of community dynamics species compete both locally in physical space and along a niche axis and it includes just two free parameters, σ, controlling the extent of competition in niche space, and t, the simulation time. This minimalistic model (1) reproduces with considerable accuracy the dynamic sequence of relative species abundances, biodiversity indices and species–area relationships that are empirically found in censuses of trees in a well-studied tropical forest; (2) shows that the clumpy pattern of niches leading to long-lasting species coexistence obtained by classical competition models is robust to relaxing the mean-field assumption. Nevertheless species that are clumped in niche space are simultaneously spatially segregated

  4. Biodiversity patterns from an individual-based competition model on niche and physical spaces

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fort, H.; Inchausti, P.

    2012-02-01

    We formulate a microscopic (individual-based and spatially explicit) ecological model to assess whether key patterns of community structure, species-packing and the spatial distribution of species are robust to relaxing the mean-field approximation made in classical ecological models. In this model of community dynamics species compete both locally in physical space and along a niche axis and it includes just two free parameters, σ, controlling the extent of competition in niche space, and t, the simulation time. This minimalistic model (1) reproduces with considerable accuracy the dynamic sequence of relative species abundances, biodiversity indices and species-area relationships that are empirically found in censuses of trees in a well-studied tropical forest; (2) shows that the clumpy pattern of niches leading to long-lasting species coexistence obtained by classical competition models is robust to relaxing the mean-field assumption. Nevertheless species that are clumped in niche space are simultaneously spatially segregated.

  5. Modelling the climatic niche of turtles: a deep-time perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waterson, Amy M; Schmidt, Daniela N; Valdes, Paul J; Holroyd, Patricia A; Nicholson, David B; Farnsworth, Alexander; Barrett, Paul M

    2016-09-28

    Ectotherms have close physiological ties with the thermal environment; consequently, the impact of future climate change on their biogeographic distributions is of major interest. Here, we use the modern and deep-time fossil record of testudines (turtles, tortoises, and terrapins) to provide the first test of climate on the niche limits of both extant and extinct (Late Cretaceous, Maastrichtian) taxa. Ecological niche models are used to assess niche overlap in model projections for key testudine ecotypes and families. An ordination framework is applied to quantify metrics of niche change (stability, expansion, and unfilling) between the Maastrichtian and present day. Results indicate that niche stability over evolutionary timescales varies between testudine clades. Groups that originated in the Early Cretaceous show climatic niche stability, whereas those diversifying towards the end of the Cretaceous display larger niche expansion towards the modern. Temperature is the dominant driver of modern and past distributions, whereas precipitation is important for freshwater turtle ranges. Our findings demonstrate that testudines were able to occupy warmer climates than present day in the geological record. However, the projected rate and magnitude of future environmental change, in concert with other conservation threats, presents challenges for acclimation or adaptation. PMID:27655766

  6. Ecological Niche Modeling of Cryptococcus gattii in British Columbia, Canada

    OpenAIRE

    Mak, Sunny; Klinkenberg, Brian; Bartlett, Karen; Fyfe, Murray

    2009-01-01

    Background Cryptococcus gattii emerged on Vancouver Island, British Columbia (BC), Canada, in 1999, causing human and animal illness. Environmental sampling for C. gattii in southwestern BC has isolated the fungal organism from native vegetation, soil, air, and water. Objectives Our aim was to help public health officials in BC delineate where C. gattii is currently established and forecast areas that could support C. gattii in the future. We also examined the utility of ecological niche mode...

  7. Diversity and Habitat Niche Modeling of Candidate Archaeal Phylum Aigarchaeota

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alba, T. W.; Goertz, G.; Williams, A. J.; Cole, J. K.; Murugapiran, S. K.; Dodsworth, J. A.; Hedlund, B. P.

    2013-12-01

    ';Aigarchaeota' (formerly known as pSL4 and Hot Water Crenarchaeotic Group I (HWCGI)) is a candidate phylum of Archaea known only by 16S rRNA gene fragments from cultivation-independent microbial surveys and a single composite genome from Candidatus ';Caldiarchaeum subterraneum', an inhabitant of a subterranean gold mine in Japan. Sequences reported in various publications are found exclusively in geothermal settings, but a comprehensive assessment has not yet been performed. We mined public databases for 16S rRNA gene sequences related to known ';Aigarchaeota' and used a combination of approaches to rigorously define the phylogenetic boundaries of the phylum. The analyses supported the proposed relationship between ';Aigarchaeota', Thaumarchaeota, Crenarchaeota, and Korarchaeota in the so-called 'TACK superphylum' and identified ~200 16S rRNA genes and gene fragments belonging to ';Aigarchaeota', including those recovered from terrestrial geothermal systems on several continents (North America, Asia, Africa, Europe, and Oceania) and marine geothermal and subsurface samples in both the Atlantic and Pacific. ';Aigarchaeota' belonged to at least three family- to order-level groups and at least seven genus-level groups. All genus-level groups were recovered from geographically distant locations, suggesting a global distribution within amenable habitats. ';Aigarchaeota'-specific primers for the polymerase chain reaction (PCR) amplification of 16S rRNA genes were designed using SP-Designer and reviewed using the Ribosomal Database Project Probe Match tool. The primers will be used to determine the presence and abundance of ';Aigarchaeota' in a wide variety of samples from terrestrial geothermal systems in the western U.S. and Asia. These phylogenetic data, along with a large geochemical database, will be analyzed using multivariate statistics to develop biogeographic and habitat niche models for ';Aigarchaeota'. This study offers the first coherent view of the

  8. Global and niche ecosystem in a simple dynamical model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sertorio, L. [Turin Univ., Turin (Italy). Dipt. di Fisica Teorica; Tinetti, G. [Istituto Nazionale di Fisica Nucleare, Turin (Italy)

    2000-12-01

    In this paper it is adopted the viewpoint that the living ecosystem can be described by a dynamical system, where the variables are the populations of the various species. It is discussed the assumptions which justify the reduction of the number of variables to only three, according to the hierarchy herbs, herbivores, carnivores. In this way the dynamics takes into account a basic physical constraints, namely the global energy chain, where the input is the solar flux. This system is dissipative and stable. The next question is whether the global dynamics may contain a niche. It is tried to define the concept of niche as a subsystem having a self-contained cycle. It is chosen a Lotka-Volterra subsystem as the simplest realization of such a cycle. Moreover it is analyzed which assumptions must be made and which conditions must be satisfied for the appearance of a Lotka-Volterra subsystem within the global energy chain. Then it is showed that while the complex global ecosystem is strong, namely is able to adapt itself to variations of the driving term, the niche is fragile.

  9. Place prioritization for biodiversity content using species ecological niche modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Víctor Sánchez-Cordero

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Place prioritization for biodiversity representation is essential for conservation planning, particularly in megadiverse countries where high deforestation threatens biodiversity. Given the collecting biases and uneven sampling of biological inventories, there is a need to develop robust models of species’ distributions. By modeling species’ ecological niches using point occurrence data and digitized environmental feature maps, we can predict potential and extant distributions of species in untransformed landscapes, as well as in those transformed by vegetation change (including deforestation. Such distributional predictions provide a framework for use of species as biodiversity surrogates in place prioritization procedures such as those based on rarity and complementarity. Beyond biodiversity conservation, these predictions can also be used for place prioritization for ecological restoration under current conditions and under future scenarios of habitat change (e.g., deforestation scenarios. To illustrate these points, we (1 predict distributions under current and future deforestation scenarios for the Mexican endemic mammal Dipodomys phillipsii, and show how areas for restoration may be selected; and (2 propose conservation areas by combining nonvolant mammal distributional predictions as biodiversity surrogates with place prioritization procedures, to connect decreed natural protected areas in a region holding exceptional biodiversity: the Transvolcanic Belt in central Mexico. La selección de áreas prioritarias de conservación es fundamental en la planeación sistemática de la conservación, particularmente en países de mega-diversidad, en donde la alta deforestación es una de las amenazas a la biodiversidad. Debido a los sesgos taxonómicos y geográficos de colecta de los inventarios biológicos, es indispensable generar modelos robustos de distribución de especies. Al modelar el nicho ecológico de especies usando localidades de

  10. Ecological niche modeling of sympatric krill predators around Marguerite Bay, Western Antarctic Peninsula

    Science.gov (United States)

    Friedlaender, Ari S.; Johnston, David W.; Fraser, William R.; Burns, Jennifer; Halpin, Patrick N.; Costa, Daniel P.

    2011-07-01

    Adélie penguins ( Pygoscelis adeliae), carabeater seals ( Lobodon carcinophagus), humpback ( Megaptera novaeangliae), and minke whales ( Balaenoptera bonaernsis) are found in the waters surrounding the Western Antarctic Peninsula. Each species relies primarily on Antarctic krill ( Euphausia superba) and has physiological constraints and foraging behaviors that dictate their ecological niches. Understanding the degree of ecological overlap between sympatric krill predators is critical to understanding and predicting the impacts on climate-driven changes to the Antarctic marine ecosystem. To explore ecological relationships amongst sympatric krill predators, we developed ecological niche models using a maximum entropy modeling approach (Maxent) that allows the integration of data collected by a variety of means (e.g. satellite-based locations and visual observations). We created spatially explicit probability distributions for the four krill predators in fall 2001 and 2002 in conjunction with a suite of environmental variables. We find areas within Marguerite Bay with high krill predator occurrence rates or biological hot spots. We find the modeled ecological niches for Adélie penguins and crabeater seals may be affected by their physiological needs to haul-out on substrate. Thus, their distributions may be less dictated by proximity to prey and more so by physical features that over time provide adequate access to prey. Humpback and minke whales, being fully marine and having greater energetic demands, occupy ecological niches more directly proximate to prey. We also find evidence to suggest that the amount of overlap between modeled niches is relatively low, even for species with similar energetic requirements. In a rapidly changing and variable environment, our modeling work shows little indication that krill predators maintain similar ecological niches across years around Marguerite Bay. Given the amount of variability in the marine environment around the

  11. Niche and neutral models predict asymptotically equivalent species abundance distributions in high-diversity ecological communities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chisholm, Ryan A.; Pacala, Stephen W.

    2010-01-01

    A fundamental challenge in ecology is to understand the mechanisms that govern patterns of relative species abundance. Previous numerical simulations have suggested that complex niche-structured models produce species abundance distributions (SADs) that are qualitatively similar to those of very simple neutral models that ignore differences between species. However, in the absence of an analytical treatment of niche models, one cannot tell whether the two classes of model produce the same patterns via similar or different mechanisms. We present an analytical proof that, in the limit as diversity becomes large, a strong niche model give rises to exactly the same asymptotic form of SAD as the neutral model, and we verify the analytical predictions for a Panamanian tropical forest data set. Our results strongly suggest that neutral processes drive patterns of relative species abundance in high-diversity ecological communities, even when strong niche structure exists. However, neutral theory cannot explain what generates high diversity in the first place, and it may not be valid in low-diversity communities. Our results also confirm that neutral theory cannot be used to infer an absence of niche structure or to explain ecosystem function. PMID:20733073

  12. Interpretation of Models of Fundamental Ecological Niches and Species’ Distributional Areas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jorge Soberon

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Ecological niche modeling—that is, estimation of the dimensions of fundamental ecological niches of species—to predict their geographic distributions is increasingly being employed in systematics, ecology, conservation, public health, etc. This technique is often (of necessity based on data comprising records of presences only. In recent years, many modeling approaches have been devised to estimate these interrelated expressions of a species’ ecology, distributional biology, and evolutionary history—nevertheless, in many cases, a formal basis in ecological and evolutionary theory has been lacking. In this paper, we outline such a formal basis for the suite of techniques that can be termed ‘ecological niche modeling,’ analyze example situations that can be modeled using these techniques, and clarify the interpretation of results.

  13. The modeling of the nuclear composition measurement performance of the Non-Imaging CHErenkov Array (NICHE)

    CERN Document Server

    Krizmanic, John; Sokolsky, Pierre

    2013-01-01

    In its initial deployment, the Non-Imaging CHErenkov Array (NICHE)will measure the flux and nuclear composition of cosmic rays from below 10^16 eV to 10^18 eV by using measurements of the amplitude and time-spread of the air-shower Cherenkov signal to achieve a robust event-by-event measurement of Xmax and energy. NICHE will have sufficient area and angular acceptance to have significant overlap with TA/TALE, within which NICHE is located, to allow for energy cross-calibration. In order to quantify NICHE's ability to measure the cosmic ray nuclear composition, 4-component composition models were constructed based upon a poly-gonato model of J. Hoerandel using simulated Xmax distributions of the composite composition as a function of energy. These composition distributions were then unfolded into individual components via an analysis technique that included NICHE's simulated Xmax and energy resolution performance as a function of energy as well as the effects of finite event statistics. Details of the construc...

  14. Metabolic modelling reveals the specialization of secondary replicons for niche adaptation in Sinorhizobium meliloti.

    Science.gov (United States)

    diCenzo, George C; Checcucci, Alice; Bazzicalupo, Marco; Mengoni, Alessio; Viti, Carlo; Dziewit, Lukasz; Finan, Turlough M; Galardini, Marco; Fondi, Marco

    2016-01-01

    The genome of about 10% of bacterial species is divided among two or more large chromosome-sized replicons. The contribution of each replicon to the microbial life cycle (for example, environmental adaptations and/or niche switching) remains unclear. Here we report a genome-scale metabolic model of the legume symbiont Sinorhizobium meliloti that is integrated with carbon utilization data for 1,500 genes with 192 carbon substrates. Growth of S. meliloti is modelled in three ecological niches (bulk soil, rhizosphere and nodule) with a focus on the role of each of its three replicons. We observe clear metabolic differences during growth in the tested ecological niches and an overall reprogramming following niche switching. In silico examination of the inferred fitness of gene deletion mutants suggests that secondary replicons evolved to fulfil a specialized function, particularly host-associated niche adaptation. Thus, genes on secondary replicons might potentially be manipulated to promote or suppress host interactions for biotechnological purposes. PMID:27447951

  15. Domestic policy consequences of new implementation models. Consequences for industrial niches

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The paper relates to the consequences of domestic policy with the focus on new implementation models used for cost reduction of offshore development projects in Norway. The paper puts the attention to the consequences from implementation models on industrial niches (subcontractors)

  16. Ecological niche modeling of Bacillus anthracis on three continents: evidence for genetic-ecological divergence?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jocelyn C Mullins

    Full Text Available We modeled the ecological niche of a globally successful Bacillus anthracis sublineage in the United States, Italy and Kazakhstan to better understand the geographic distribution of anthrax and potential associations between regional populations and ecology. Country-specific ecological-niche models were developed and reciprocally transferred to the other countries to determine if pathogen presence could be accurately predicted on novel landscapes. Native models accurately predicted endemic areas within each country, but transferred models failed to predict known occurrences in the outside countries. While the effects of variable selection and limitations of the genetic data should be considered, results suggest differing ecological associations for the B. anthracis populations within each country and may reflect niche specialization within the sublineage. Our findings provide guidance for developing accurate ecological niche models for this pathogen; models should be developed regionally, on the native landscape, and with consideration to population genetics. Further genomic analysis will improve our understanding of the genetic-ecological dynamics of B. anthracis across these countries and may lead to more refined predictive models for surveillance and proactive vaccination programs. Further studies should evaluate the impact of variable selection of native and transferred models.

  17. Robustness and accuracy of Maxent niche modelling for Lactuca species distributions in light of collecting expeditions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cobben, M.M.P.; Treuren, van R.; Castaneda-Alvarez, N.P.; Khoury, C.K.; Kik, C.; Hintum, van T.J.L.

    2015-01-01

    Niche modelling software can be used to assess the probability of detecting a population of a plant species at a certain location. In this study, we used the distribution of the wild relatives of lettuce (Lactuca spp.) to investigate the applicability of Maxent species distribution models for collec

  18. Reversible neural stem cell niche dysfunction in a model of multiple sclerosis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Stine; Imitola, Jaime; Ayuso-Sacido, Angel;

    2011-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: The subventricular zone (SVZ) of the brain constitutes a niche for neural stem and progenitor cells that can initiate repair after central nervous system (CNS) injury. In a relapsing-remitting model of experimental autoimmune encephalomyelitis (EAE), the neural stem cells (NSCs) become...

  19. The significance of using satellite imagery data only in Ecological Niche Modelling of Iberian herps

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sillero, N.; Brito, J.C.; Martin-Alfageme, S.; Garcia-Melendez, E.; Toxopeus, A.G.; Skidmore, A.K.

    2012-01-01

    The environmental data used to calculate ecological niche models (ENM) are obtained mainly from ground-based maps (e.g., climatic interpolated surfaces). These data are often not available for less developed areas, or may be at an inappropriate scale, and thus to obtain this information requires fie

  20. A niche model to predict Microcystis bloom decline in Chaohu Lake, China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WANG Zhicong; LI Zhongjie; LI Dunhai

    2012-01-01

    Cyanobacterial blooms occur frequently in lakes due to eutrophication.Although a number of models have been proposed to forecast algal blooms,a good and applicable method is still lacking.This study explored a simple and effective mathematical-ecological model to evaluate the growth status and predict the population dynamics of Microcystis blooms.In this study,phytoplankton were collected and identified from 8 sampling sites in Chaohu Lake every month from July to October,2010.The niche breadth and niche overlap of common species were calculated using standard equations,and the potential relative growth rates of Microcystis were calculated as a weighted-value of niche overlap.In July,the potential relative growth rate was 2.79 (a.u.,arbitrary units) but then rapidly declined in the following months to -3.99 a.u.in September.A significant correlation (R=0.998,P<0.01) was found in the model between the net-increase in biomass of Microcystis in the field and the predicted values calculated by the niche model,we concluded that the niche model is suitable for forecasting the dynamics of Microcystis blooms.Redundancy analysis indicated that decreases in water temperature,dissolved oxygen and total dissolved phosphorus might be major factors underlying bloom decline.Based on the theory of community succession being caused by resource competition,the growth and decline of blooms can be predicted from a community structure.This may provide a basis for early warning and control of algal blooms.

  1. mMWeb--an online platform for employing multiple ecological niche modeling algorithms.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huijie Qiao

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Predicting the ecological niche and potential habitat distribution of a given organism is one of the central domains of ecological and biogeographical research. A wide variety of modeling techniques have been developed for this purpose. In order to implement these models, the users must prepare a specific runtime environment for each model, learn how to use multiple model platforms, and prepare data in a different format each time. Additionally, often model results are difficult to interpret, and a standardized method for comparing model results across platforms does not exist. We developed a free and open source online platform, the multi-models web-based (mMWeb platform, to address each of these problems, providing a novel environment in which the user can implement and compare multiple ecological niche model (ENM algorithms. METHODOLOGY: mMWeb combines 18 existing ENMs and their corresponding algorithms and provides a uniform procedure for modeling the potential habitat niche of a species via a common web browser. mMWeb uses Java Native Interface (JNI, Java R Interface to combine the different ENMs and executes multiple tasks in parallel on a super computer. The cross-platform, user-friendly interface of mMWeb simplifies the process of building ENMs, providing an accessible and efficient environment from which to explore and compare different model algorithms.

  2. Ecological Niche Model used to examine the distribution of an invasive, non-indigenous coral.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carlos-Júnior, L A; Barbosa, N P U; Moulton, T P; Creed, J C

    2015-02-01

    All organisms have a set of ecological conditions (or niche) which they depend on to survive and establish in a given habitat. The ecological niche of a species limits its geographical distribution. In the particular case of non-indigenous species (NIS), the ecological requirements of the species impose boundaries on the potential distribution of the organism in the new receptor regions. This is a theoretical assumption implicit when Ecological Niche Models (ENMs) are used to assess the potential distribution of NIS. This assumption has been questioned, given that in some cases niche shift may occur during the process of invasion. We used ENMs to investigate whether the model fit with data from the native range of the coral Tubastraea coccinea Lesson, 1829 successfully predicts its invasion in the Atlantic. We also identified which factors best explain the distribution of this NIS. The broad native distributional range of T. coccinea predicted the invaded sites well, especially along the Brazilian coast, the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico. The occurrence of T. coccinea was positively related to calcite levels and negatively to eutrophy, but was rather unaffected to other variables that often limit other marine organisms, suggesting that this NIS has wide ecological limits, a trait typical of invasive species. PMID:25465286

  3. Integrating life stages into ecological niche models: a case study on tiger beetles.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Angela Taboada

    Full Text Available Detailed understanding of a species' natural history and environmental needs across spatial scales is a primary requisite for effective conservation planning, particularly for species with complex life cycles in which different life stages occupy different niches and respond to the environment at different scales. However, niche models applied to conservation often neglect early life stages and are mostly performed at broad spatial scales. Using the endangered heath tiger beetle (Cicindela sylvatica as a model species, we relate presence/absence and abundance data of locally dispersing adults and sedentary larvae to abiotic and biotic variables measured in a multiscale approach within the geographic extent relevant to active conservation management. At the scale of hundreds of meters, fine-grained abiotic conditions (i.e., vegetation structure are fundamental determinants of the occurrence of both life stages, whereas the effect of biotic factors is mostly contained in the abiotic signature. The combination of dense heath vegetation and bare ground areas is thus the first requirement for the species' preservation, provided that accessibility to the suitable habitat is ensured. At a smaller scale (centimetres, the influence of abiotic factors on larval occurrence becomes negligible, suggesting the existence of important additional variables acting within larval proximity. Sustained significant correlations between neighbouring larvae in the models provide an indication of the potential impact of neighbourhood crowding on the larval niche within a few centimetres. Since the species spends the majority of its life cycle in the larval stage, it is essential to consider the hierarchical abiotic and biotic processes affecting the larvae when designing practical conservation guidelines for the species. This underlines the necessity for a more critical evaluation of the consequences of disregarding niche variation between life stages when estimating

  4. Large-scale distribution analysis of Antarctic echinoids using ecological niche modelling

    OpenAIRE

    Pierrat, B.; Saucede, T.; Laffont, R.; De Ridder, C.; Festeau, A.; David, B.

    2012-01-01

    Understanding the factors that determine the distribution of taxa at various spatial scales is a crucial challenge in the context of global climate change. This holds particularly true for polar marine biota that are composed of both highly adapted and vulnerable faunas. We analysed the distribution of 2 Antarctic echinoid species, Sterechinus antarcticus and S. neumayeri, at the scale of the entire Southern Ocean using 2 niche modelling procedures. The performance of distribution models was ...

  5. Reconciling phylogeography and ecological niche models for New Zealand beetles looking beyond glacial refugia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Marske, Katharine Ann; Leschen, Richard; Buckley, Thomas

    2011-01-01

    stochastic search variable selection incorporated in BEAST to identify historical dispersal patterns via ancestral state reconstruction. Ecological niche models (ENMs) were incorporated to reconstruct the potential geographic distribution of each species during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Coalescent......Mitochondrial DNA (cox1) sequence data and recently developed coalescent phylogeography models were used to construct geo-spatial histories for the New Zealand fungus beetles Epistranus lawsoni and Pristoderus bakewelli (Zopheridae). These methods utilize continuous-time Markov chains and Bayesian...

  6. The fate of the Arctic seaweed Fucus distichus under climate change: an ecological niche modeling approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jueterbock, Alexander; Smolina, Irina; Coyer, James A; Hoarau, Galice

    2016-03-01

    Rising temperatures are predicted to melt all perennial ice cover in the Arctic by the end of this century, thus opening up suitable habitat for temperate and subarctic species. Canopy-forming seaweeds provide an ideal system to predict the potential impact of climate-change on rocky-shore ecosystems, given their direct dependence on temperature and their key role in the ecological system. Our primary objective was to predict the climate-change induced range-shift of Fucus distichus, the dominant canopy-forming macroalga in the Arctic and subarctic rocky intertidal. More specifically, we asked: which Arctic/subarctic and cold-temperate shores of the northern hemisphere will display the greatest distributional change of F. distichus and how will this affect niche overlap with seaweeds from temperate regions? We used the program MAXENT to develop correlative ecological niche models with dominant range-limiting factors and 169 occurrence records. Using three climate-change scenarios, we projected habitat suitability of F. distichus - and its niche overlap with three dominant temperate macroalgae - until year 2200. Maximum sea surface temperature was identified as the most important factor in limiting the fundamental niche of F. distichus. Rising temperatures were predicted to have low impact on the species' southern distribution limits, but to shift its northern distribution limits poleward into the high Arctic. In cold-temperate to subarctic regions, new areas of niche overlap were predicted between F. distichus and intertidal macroalgae immigrating from the south. While climate-change threatens intertidal seaweeds in warm-temperate regions, seaweed meadows will likely flourish in the Arctic intertidal. Although this enriches biodiversity and opens up new seaweed-harvesting grounds, it will also trigger unpredictable changes in the structure and functioning of the Arctic intertidal ecosystem. PMID:27087933

  7. Ecological Niche Modeling Approaches to Conservation of Endangered and Threatened Birds in Central and Eastern Europe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Monica Papes

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Comprehensive biodiversity surveys are unavailable for most Central and Eastern European countries. Although birds in general are well-studied, distributional information in the region is sparse and largely out-of of-date; I used museum specimen locality records and raster GIS data layers summarizing environmental dimensions to produce distributional hypotheses for the 36 threatened and endangered bird species in the region using ecological niche modeling. These ecological niche models were also used to predict likely future (2055 distributional shifts owing to global climate change. The entire suite of distributional information that resulted was used to evaluate strategies for conservation via simple heuristic place-prioritization algorithms based on complementarity and rarity considerations. These analyses identified priority areas in southern and eastern Romania, as well as other areas across the region, as priority targets for conservation action in the region.

  8. Why not use niche modelling for computing risk of wildfires ignition and spreading?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alessandro Ferrarini

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available A forest fire can be a true ecological calamity, regardless of whether it is caused by natural forces or human actions. Although it is impossible to control nature, it is possible to map wildfire risk zones, and thence minimize the frequency of wildfires and prevent damages. Wildfire risk zones are locations where a fire is likely to start, and from where it can spread to other areas. Predictions of wildfires ignitions are critical aspects of biodiversity conservation and management, and they are only possible when a reliable fire risk zone map is available. I suggest in this paper that wildfire ignition risk computed from points of past wildfires obeys the same conceptual and mathematical rules of niche models commonly applied to points of sampled plants or animals. Therefore, niche modeling can also be an inductive approach for an effective and inexpensive computation of wildfires ignition and spreading likelihood.

  9. Distribution and Conservation of Davilla (Dilleniaceae) in Brazilian Atlantic Forest Using Ecological Niche Modeling

    OpenAIRE

    Ismael Martins Pereira; Vera Lúcia Gomes-Klein; Milton Groppo

    2014-01-01

    We have modeled the ecological niche for 12 plant species belonging to the genus Davilla (Dilleniaceae) which occur in the Atlantic Forest of Brazil. This group includes endemic species lianas threatened by extinction and is therefore a useful indicator for forest areas requiring conservation. The aims are to compare the distribution and richness of species within the protected areas, assessing the degree of protection and gap analysis of reserves for this group. We used the Maxent algorithm ...

  10. Diatom Cooccurrence Shows Less Segregation than Predicted from Niche Modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bottin, Marius; Soininen, Janne; Alard, Didier; Rosebery, Juliette

    2016-01-01

    Species cooccurrence patterns give significant insights into the processes shaping communities. While biotic interactions have been widely studied using cooccurrence analyses in animals and larger plants, studies about cooccurrences among micro-organisms are still relatively rare. We examined stream diatom cooccurrences in France through a national database of samples. In order to test the relative influence of environmental, biotic and spatial constraints on species' incidence distribution, cooccurrence and nestedness patterns of real communities were compared with the patterns generated from a set of standard and environmentally constrained null models. Real communities showed a higher level of segregation than the most conservative standard null models, but a general aggregation of cooccurrences when compared to environmentally constrained null models. We did not find any evidence of limiting similarity between cooccurring species. Aggregations of species cooccurrences were associated with the high levels of nestedness. Altogether, these results suggested that biotic interactions were not structuring cooccurrences of diatom species at our study scale. Instead, the patterns were more likely to be related with colonization patterns, mass effect, and local temporal dynamics of diatom biofilms. We further highlight that the association of standard and environmentally constrained null models may give realistic insight into the cooccurrence patterns of microbial communities. PMID:27128737

  11. Diatom Cooccurrence Shows Less Segregation than Predicted from Niche Modeling.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marius Bottin

    Full Text Available Species cooccurrence patterns give significant insights into the processes shaping communities. While biotic interactions have been widely studied using cooccurrence analyses in animals and larger plants, studies about cooccurrences among micro-organisms are still relatively rare. We examined stream diatom cooccurrences in France through a national database of samples. In order to test the relative influence of environmental, biotic and spatial constraints on species' incidence distribution, cooccurrence and nestedness patterns of real communities were compared with the patterns generated from a set of standard and environmentally constrained null models. Real communities showed a higher level of segregation than the most conservative standard null models, but a general aggregation of cooccurrences when compared to environmentally constrained null models. We did not find any evidence of limiting similarity between cooccurring species. Aggregations of species cooccurrences were associated with the high levels of nestedness. Altogether, these results suggested that biotic interactions were not structuring cooccurrences of diatom species at our study scale. Instead, the patterns were more likely to be related with colonization patterns, mass effect, and local temporal dynamics of diatom biofilms. We further highlight that the association of standard and environmentally constrained null models may give realistic insight into the cooccurrence patterns of microbial communities.

  12. Using environmental niche models to test the 'everything is everywhere' hypothesis for Badhamia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aguilar, María; Fiore-Donno, Anna-Maria; Lado, Carlos; Cavalier-Smith, Thomas

    2014-04-01

    It is often discussed whether the biogeography of free-living protists is better explained by the 'everything is everywhere'(EiE) hypothesis, which postulates that only ecology drives their distribution, or by the alternative hypothesis of 'moderate endemicity' in which geographic barriers can limit their dispersal. To formally test this, it would be necessary not only to find organisms restricted to a geographical area but also to check for their presence in any other place with a similar ecology. We propose the use of environmental niche models to generate and test null EiE distributions. Here we have analysed the distribution of 18S rDNA variants (ribotypes) of the myxomycete Badhamia melanospora (belonging to the protozoan phylum Amoebozoa) using 125 specimens from 91 localities. Two geographically structured groups of ribotypes congruent with slight morphological differences in the spores can be distinguished. One group comprises all populations from Argentina and Chile, and the other is formed by populations from North America together with human-introduced populations from other parts of the world. Environmental climatic niche models constructed separately for the two groups have significant differences, but show several overlapping areas. However, only specimens from one group were found in an intensively surveyed area in South America where both niche models overlap. It can be concluded that everything is not everywhere for B. melanospora. This taxon constitutes a complex formed by at least two cryptic species that probably diverged allopatrically in North and South America.

  13. Ecological niche modeling to estimate the distribution of Japanese encephalitis virus in Asia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robin H Miller

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Culex tritaeniorhynchus is the primary vector of Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV, a leading cause of encephalitis in Asia. JEV is transmitted in an enzootic cycle involving large wading birds as the reservoirs and swine as amplifying hosts. The development of a JEV vaccine reduced the number of JE cases in regions with comprehensive childhood vaccination programs, such as in Japan and the Republic of Korea. However, the lack of vaccine programs or insufficient coverage of populations in other endemic countries leaves many people susceptible to JEV. The aim of this study was to predict the distribution of Culex tritaeniorhynchus using ecological niche modeling. METHODS/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: An ecological niche model was constructed using the Maxent program to map the areas with suitable environmental conditions for the Cx. tritaeniorhynchus vector. Program input consisted of environmental data (temperature, elevation, rainfall and known locations of vector presence resulting from an extensive literature search and records from MosquitoMap. The statistically significant Maxent model of the estimated probability of Cx. tritaeniorhynchus presence showed that the mean temperatures of the wettest quarter had the greatest impact on the model. Further, the majority of human Japanese encephalitis (JE cases were located in regions with higher estimated probability of Cx. tritaeniorhynchus presence. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our ecological niche model of the estimated probability of Cx. tritaeniorhynchus presence provides a framework for better allocation of vector control resources, particularly in locations where JEV vaccinations are unavailable. Furthermore, this model provides estimates of vector probability that could improve vector surveillance programs and JE control efforts.

  14. Ecological Niche Modeling for the Prediction of the Geographic Distribution of Cutaneous Leishmaniasis in Tunisia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chalghaf, Bilel; Chlif, Sadok; Mayala, Benjamin; Ghawar, Wissem; Bettaieb, Jihène; Harrabi, Myriam; Benie, Goze Bertin; Michael, Edwin; Salah, Afif Ben

    2016-04-01

    Cutaneous leishmaniasis is a very complex disease involving multiple factors that limit its emergence and spatial distribution. Prediction of cutaneous leishmaniasis epidemics in Tunisia remains difficult because most of the epidemiological tools used so far are descriptive in nature and mainly focus on a time dimension. The purpose of this work is to predict the potential geographic distribution of Phlebotomus papatasi and zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis caused by Leishmania major in Tunisia using Grinnellian ecological niche modeling. We attempted to assess the importance of environmental factors influencing the potential distribution of P. papatasi and cutaneous leishmaniasis caused by L. major. Vectors were trapped in central Tunisia during the transmission season using CDC light traps (John W. Hock Co., Gainesville, FL). A global positioning system was used to record the geographical coordinates of vector occurrence points and households tested positive for cutaneous leishmaniasis caused by L. major. Nine environmental layers were used as predictor variables to model the P. papatasi geographical distribution and five variables were used to model the L. major potential distribution. Ecological niche modeling was used to relate known species' occurrence points to values of environmental factors for these same points to predict the presence of the species in unsampled regions based on the value of the predictor variables. Rainfall and temperature contributed the most as predictors for sand flies and human case distributions. Ecological niche modeling anticipated the current distribution of P. papatasi with the highest suitability for species occurrence in the central and southeastern part of Tunisian. Furthermore, our study demonstrated that governorates of Gafsa, Sidi Bouzid, and Kairouan are at highest epidemic risk. PMID:26856914

  15. Estimating Niche Width Using Stable Isotopes in the Face of Habitat Variability: A Modelling Case Study in the Marine Environment

    OpenAIRE

    David O Cummings; Jerome Buhl; Lee, Raymond W.; Stephen J Simpson; Sebastian P Holmes

    2012-01-01

    Distributions of stable isotopes have been used to infer an organism's trophic niche width, the 'isotopic niche', and examine resource partitioning. Spatial variation in the isotopic composition of prey may however confound the interpretation of isotopic signatures especially when foragers exploit resources across numerous locations. In this study the isotopic compositions from marine assemblages are modelled to determine the role of variation in the signature of prey items and the effect of ...

  16. Modelling the multidimensional niche by linking functional traits to competitive performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maynard, Daniel S; Leonard, Kenneth E; Drake, John M; Hall, David W; Crowther, Thomas W; Bradford, Mark A

    2015-07-22

    Linking competitive outcomes to environmental conditions is necessary for understanding species' distributions and responses to environmental change. Despite this importance, generalizable approaches for predicting competitive outcomes across abiotic gradients are lacking, driven largely by the highly complex and context-dependent nature of biotic interactions. Here, we present and empirically test a novel niche model that uses functional traits to model the niche space of organisms and predict competitive outcomes of co-occurring populations across multiple resource gradients. The model makes no assumptions about the underlying mode of competition and instead applies to those settings where relative competitive ability across environments correlates with a quantifiable performance metric. To test the model, a series of controlled microcosm experiments were conducted using genetically related strains of a widespread microbe. The model identified trait microevolution and performance differences among strains, with the predicted competitive ability of each organism mapped across a two-dimensional carbon and nitrogen resource space. Areas of coexistence and competitive dominance between strains were identified,and the predicted competitive outcomes were validated in approximately 95% of the pairings. By linking trait variation to competitive ability, our work demonstrates a generalizable approach for predicting and modelling competitive outcomes across changing environmental contexts. PMID:26136444

  17. Ecological niche model to predict the potential distribution of phytoplankton in the Aguamilpa Dam, Nayarit. Mexico

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Humberto Macias-Cuellar

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Phytoplankton species are an important basis of the food web for various systems such as pelagic, coastal and lake. Due to their photosynthetic capacity, this community is sensitive to changes in light availability, temperature, nutrient concentrations, herbivores consumption, parasitism and competition. Therefore, they show a high spatial and temporal variability related to environmental changes both natural and anthropogenic. However, as any taxonomic group, phytoplankton species have environmental thresholds, ecological niches that define their distribution. This study was located in Aguamilpa Dam, an artificial aquatic reservoir which started operations in 1994 for electric energy production. In this system the potential distribution of the phytoplankton was evaluated, where the highest species richness and restricted distribution areas were identified. Potential distribution models based on ecological niche definition were generated using ArcMap 9.2® with Maxent (Maximun Entropy Method. The development of distribution maps was carried out using Digital Elevation Models in cells of 100 m x 100 m (1 ha, based on nine physico-chemical and biological water parameters monitored in the reservoir. The highest species richness areas were found in the Huaynamota river tributary and at the station called La Confluencia, while the less abundance areas were found in the Santiago river tributary during warm and cold dry seasons with a great abundance of cyanophyta. During the rainfall season, the Huaynamota river tributary diversity areas were extended and the presence of some dominant species of cyanophyta were indentified. These species can be associated with trophic processes related to anthropogenic pollutants in the reservoir. This study illustrates the potential application of niche modeling approach in aquatic ecosystems.

  18. Mapping the potential risk of mycetoma infection in Sudan and South Sudan using ecological niche modeling.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abdallah M Samy

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available In 2013, the World Health Organization (WHO recognized mycetoma as one of the neglected tropical conditions due to the efforts of the mycetoma consortium. This same consortium formulated knowledge gaps that require further research. One of these gaps was that very few data are available on the epidemiology and transmission cycle of the causative agents. Previous work suggested a soil-borne or Acacia thorn-prick-mediated origin of mycetoma infections, but no studies have investigated effects of soil type and Acacia geographic distribution on mycetoma case distributions. Here, we map risk of mycetoma infection across Sudan and South Sudan using ecological niche modeling (ENM. For this study, records of mycetoma cases were obtained from the scientific literature and GIDEON; Acacia records were obtained from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility. We developed ENMs based on digital GIS data layers summarizing soil characteristics, land-surface temperature, and greenness indices to provide a rich picture of environmental variation across Sudan and South Sudan. ENMs were calibrated in known endemic districts and transferred countrywide; model results suggested that risk is greatest in an east-west belt across central Sudan. Visualizing ENMs in environmental dimensions, mycetoma occurs under diverse environmental conditions. We compared niches of mycetoma and Acacia trees, and could not reject the null hypothesis of niche similarity. This study revealed contributions of different environmental factors to mycetoma infection risk, identified suitable environments and regions for transmission, signaled a potential mycetoma-Acacia association, and provided steps towards a robust risk map for the disease.

  19. Trends and biases in global scientific literature about ecological niche models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vaz, U L; Cunha, H F; Nabout, J C

    2015-11-01

    Recently, ecological niche models have been employed to investigate the potential geographical distribution of species. However, it is necessary to analyze the vast number of publications on this topic to understand the trends and biases of research using ecological niche models (ENMs). Therefore, this study aims to investigate trends in the scientific literature regarding studies on ENMs. For the quantitative analysis of the literature on ENMs, we performed a search in the Thomson ISI (Web of Science) database between 1991 and 2013. The search identified 3042 papers containing preselected keywords in either the title or abstract. The results showed that the number of papers has increased over the years (r=0.77, Pplants (402 papers, or 28.36% of the total). There was no relationship between the modeling method used and the taxonomic group studied (χ2=4.8, P=0.15). Finally, the wide availability of biological, environmental and computational resources has elicited the broad use of tools for ENMs. Despite the conceptual discussions of the ENMs, this method is currently the most effective way to evaluate the potential geographical distribution of species, and to predict the distribution under different environmental conditions (i.e., future or past scenarios).

  20. Predicted Distribution of Visceral Leishmaniasis Vectors (Diptera: Psychodidae; Phlebotominae) in Iran: A Niche Model Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanafi-Bojd, A A; Rassi, Y; Yaghoobi-Ershadi, M R; Haghdoost, A A; Akhavan, A A; Charrahy, Z; Karimi, A

    2015-12-01

    Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is an important vector-borne disease in Iran. Till now, Leishmania infantum has been detected from five species of sand flies in the country including Phlebotomus kandelakii, Phlebotomus major s.l., Phlebotomus perfiliewi, Phlebotomus alexandri and Phlebotomus tobbi. Also, Phlebotomus keshishiani was found to be infected with Leishmania parasites. This study aimed at predicting the probable niches and distribution of vectors of visceral leishmaniasis in Iran. Data on spatial distribution studies of sand flies were obtained from Iranian database on sand flies. Sample points were included in data from faunistic studies on sand flies conducted during 1995-2013. MaxEnt software was used to predict the appropriate ecological niches for given species, using climatic and topographical data. Distribution maps were prepared and classified in ArcGIS to find main ecological niches of the vectors and hot spots for VL transmission in Iran. Phlebotomus kandelakii, Ph. major s.l. and Ph. alexandri seem to have played a more important role in VL transmission in Iran, so this study focuses on them. Representations of MaxEnt model for probability of distribution of the studied sand flies showed high contribution of climatological and topographical variables to predict the potential distribution of three vector species. Isothermality was found to be an environmental variable with the highest gain when used in isolation for Ph. kandelakii and Ph. major s.l., while for Ph. alexandri, the most effective variable was precipitation of the coldest quarter. The results of this study present the first prediction on distribution of sand fly vectors of VL in Iran. The predicted distributions were matched with the disease-endemic areas in the country, while it was found that there were some unaffected areas with the potential transmission. More comprehensive studies are recommended on the ecology and vector competence of VL vectors in the country. PMID:26032232

  1. Modeling the ecologic niche of plague in sylvan and domestic animal hosts to delineate sources of human exposure in the western United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walsh, Michael; Haseeb, M A

    2015-01-01

    Plague has been established in the western United States (US) since 1900 following the West Coast introduction of commensal rodents infected with Yersinia pestis via early industrial shipping. Over the last century, plague ecology has transitioned through cycles of widespread human transmission, urban domestic transmission among commensal rodents, and ultimately settled into the predominantly sylvan foci that remain today where it is maintained alternatively by enzootic and epizootic transmission. While zoonotic transmission to humans is much less common in modern times, significant plague risk remains in parts of the western US. Moreover, risk to some threatened species that are part of the epizootic cycle can be quite substantive. This investigation attempted to predict the risk of plague across the western US by modeling the ecologic niche of plague in sylvan and domestic animals identified between 2000 and 2015. A Maxent machine learning algorithm was used to predict this niche based on climate, altitude, land cover, and the presence of an important enzootic species, Peromyscus maniculatus. This model demonstrated good predictive ability (AUC = 86%) and identified areas of high risk in central Colorado, north-central New Mexico, and southwestern and northeastern California. The presence of P. maniculatus, altitude, precipitation during the driest and wettest quarters, and distance to artificial surfaces, all contributed substantively to maximizing the gain function. These findings add to the known landscape epidemiology and infection ecology of plague in the western US and may suggest locations of particular risk to be targeted for wild and domestic animal intervention. PMID:26713244

  2. How to catch a parasite: Parasite Niche Modeler (PaNic) meets Fishbase

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strona, Giovanni; Lafferty, Kevin D.

    2012-01-01

    Parasite Niche Modeler (PaNic) is a free online software tool that suggests potential hosts for fish parasites. For a particular parasite species from the major helminth groups (Acanthocephala, Cestoda, Monogenea, Nematoda, Trematoda), PaNic takes data from known hosts (maximum body length, growth rate, life span, age at first maturity, trophic level, phylogeny, and biogeography) and hypothesizes similar fish species that might serve as hosts to that parasite. Users can give varying weights to host attributes and create custom models. In addition to suggesting plausible hosts (with varying degrees of confidence), the models indicate known host species that appear to be outliers in comparison to other known hosts. These unique features make PaNic an innovative tool for addressing both theoretical and applied questions in fish parasitology. PaNic can be accessed at .

  3. Ecological Niche Modeling of Risk Factors for H7N9 Human Infection in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Min; Cao, Chunxiang; Li, Qun; Jia, Peng; Zhao, Jian

    2016-01-01

    China was attacked by a serious influenza A (H7N9) virus in 2013. The first human infection case was confirmed in Shanghai City and soon spread across most of eastern China. Using the methods of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and ecological niche modeling (ENM), this research quantitatively analyzed the relationships between the H7N9 occurrence and the main environmental factors, including meteorological variables, human population density, bird migratory routes, wetland distribution, and live poultry farms, markets, and processing factories. Based on these relationships the probability of the presence of H7N9 was predicted. Results indicated that the distribution of live poultry processing factories, farms, and human population density were the top three most important determinants of the H7N9 human infection. The relative contributions to the model of live poultry processing factories, farms and human population density were 39.9%, 17.7% and 17.7%, respectively, while the maximum temperature of the warmest month and mean relative humidity had nearly no contribution to the model. The paper has developed an ecological niche model (ENM) that predicts the spatial distribution of H7N9 cases in China using environmental variables. The area under the curve (AUC) values of the model were greater than 0.9 (0.992 for the training samples and 0.961 for the test data). The findings indicated that most of the high risk areas were distributed in the Yangtze River Delta. These findings have important significance for the Chinese government to enhance the environmental surveillance at multiple human poultry interfaces in the high risk area. PMID:27322296

  4. Ecological Niche Modeling of Risk Factors for H7N9 Human Infection in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Min Xu

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available China was attacked by a serious influenza A (H7N9 virus in 2013. The first human infection case was confirmed in Shanghai City and soon spread across most of eastern China. Using the methods of Geographic Information Systems (GIS and ecological niche modeling (ENM, this research quantitatively analyzed the relationships between the H7N9 occurrence and the main environmental factors, including meteorological variables, human population density, bird migratory routes, wetland distribution, and live poultry farms, markets, and processing factories. Based on these relationships the probability of the presence of H7N9 was predicted. Results indicated that the distribution of live poultry processing factories, farms, and human population density were the top three most important determinants of the H7N9 human infection. The relative contributions to the model of live poultry processing factories, farms and human population density were 39.9%, 17.7% and 17.7%, respectively, while the maximum temperature of the warmest month and mean relative humidity had nearly no contribution to the model. The paper has developed an ecological niche model (ENM that predicts the spatial distribution of H7N9 cases in China using environmental variables. The area under the curve (AUC values of the model were greater than 0.9 (0.992 for the training samples and 0.961 for the test data. The findings indicated that most of the high risk areas were distributed in the Yangtze River Delta. These findings have important significance for the Chinese government to enhance the environmental surveillance at multiple human poultry interfaces in the high risk area.

  5. Ecological Niche Modeling of Risk Factors for H7N9 Human Infection in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Min; Cao, Chunxiang; Li, Qun; Jia, Peng; Zhao, Jian

    2016-01-01

    China was attacked by a serious influenza A (H7N9) virus in 2013. The first human infection case was confirmed in Shanghai City and soon spread across most of eastern China. Using the methods of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and ecological niche modeling (ENM), this research quantitatively analyzed the relationships between the H7N9 occurrence and the main environmental factors, including meteorological variables, human population density, bird migratory routes, wetland distribution, and live poultry farms, markets, and processing factories. Based on these relationships the probability of the presence of H7N9 was predicted. Results indicated that the distribution of live poultry processing factories, farms, and human population density were the top three most important determinants of the H7N9 human infection. The relative contributions to the model of live poultry processing factories, farms and human population density were 39.9%, 17.7% and 17.7%, respectively, while the maximum temperature of the warmest month and mean relative humidity had nearly no contribution to the model. The paper has developed an ecological niche model (ENM) that predicts the spatial distribution of H7N9 cases in China using environmental variables. The area under the curve (AUC) values of the model were greater than 0.9 (0.992 for the training samples and 0.961 for the test data). The findings indicated that most of the high risk areas were distributed in the Yangtze River Delta. These findings have important significance for the Chinese government to enhance the environmental surveillance at multiple human poultry interfaces in the high risk area. PMID:27322296

  6. Phylogenetic comparative approaches for studying niche conservatism

    OpenAIRE

    COOPER, NATALIE; Jetz, Walter; Freckleton, Rob P.

    2010-01-01

    Analyses of phylogenetic niche conservatism (PNC) are becoming increasingly common. However, each analysis makes subtly different assumptions about the evolutionary mechanism that generates patterns of niche conservatism. To understand PNC, analyses should be conducted with reference to a clear underlying model, using appropriate methods. Here, we outline five macroevolutionary models that may underlie patterns of PNC (drift, niche retention, phylogenetic inertia, niche filling ? shifti...

  7. Postglacial species displacement in Triturus newts deduced from asymmetrically introgressed mitochondrial DNA and ecological niche models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wielstra Ben

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background If the geographical displacement of one species by another is accompanied by hybridization, mitochondrial DNA can introgress asymmetrically, from the outcompeted species into the invading species, over a large area. We explore this phenomenon using the two parapatric crested newt species, Triturus macedonicus and T. karelinii, distributed on the Balkan Peninsula in south-eastern Europe, as a model. Results We first delimit a ca. 54,000 km2 area in which T. macedonicus contains T. karelinii mitochondrial DNA. This introgression zone bisects the range of T. karelinii, cutting off a T. karelinii enclave. The high similarity of introgressed mitochondrial DNA haplotypes with those found in T. karelinii suggests a recent transfer across the species boundary. We then use ecological niche modeling to explore habitat suitability of the location of the present day introgression zone under current, mid-Holocene and Last Glacial Maximum conditions. This area was inhospitable during the Last Glacial Maximum for both species, but would have been habitable at the mid-Holocene. Since the mid-Holocene, habitat suitability generally increased for T. macedonicus, whereas it decreased for T. karelinii. Conclusion The presence of a T. karelinii enclave suggests that T. karelinii was the first to colonize the area where the present day introgression zone is positioned after the Last Glacial Maximum. Subsequently, we propose T. karelinii was outcompeted by T. macedonicus, which captured T. karelinii mitochondrial DNA via introgressive hybridization in the process. Ecological niche modeling suggests that this replacement was likely facilitated by a shift in climate since the mid-Holocene. We suggest that the northwestern part of the current introgression zone was probably never inhabited by T. karelinii itself, and that T. karelinii mitochondrial DNA spread there through T. macedonicus exclusively. Considering the spatial distribution of the

  8. Assessing the potential for establishment of western cherry fruit fly using ecological niche modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, Sunil; Neven, Lisa G; Yee, Wee L

    2014-06-01

    Sweet cherries, Prunus avium (L.) L., grown in the western United States are exported to many countries around the world. Some of these countries have enforced strict quarantine rules and trade restrictions owing to concerns about the potential establishment and subsequent spread of western cherry fruit fly, Rhagoletis indifferens Curran (Diptera: Tephritidae), a major quarantine pest of sweet cherry. We used 1) niche models (CLIMEX and MaxEnt) to map the climatic suitability, 2) North Carolina State University-Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service Plant Pest Forecasting System to examine chilling requirement, and 3) host distribution and availability to assess the potential for establishment of R. indifferens in areas of western North America where it currently does not exist and eight current or potential fresh sweet cherry markets: Colombia, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Taiwan, Thailand, Venezuela, and Vietnam. Results from niche models conformed well to the current distribution of R. indifferens in western North America. MaxEnt and CLIMEX models had high performance and predicted climatic suitability in some of the countries (e.g., Andean range in Colombia and Venezuela, northern and northeastern India, central Taiwan, and parts of Vietnam). However, our results showed no potential for establishment of R. indifferens in Colombia, Indonesia, Malaysia, Taiwan, Thailand, Venezuela, and Vietnam when the optimal chilling requirement to break diapause (minimum temperature < or = 3 degree C for at least 15 wk) was used as the criterion for whether establishment can occur. Furthermore, these countries have no host plant species available for R. indifferens. Our results can be used to make scientifically informed international trade decisions and negotiations by policy makers. PMID:25026662

  9. Ecological Niche Modeling of main reservoir hosts of zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis in Iran.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gholamrezaei, Mostafa; Mohebali, Mehdi; Hanafi-Bojd, Ahmad Ali; Sedaghat, Mohammad Mehdi; Shirzadi, Mohammad Reza

    2016-08-01

    Zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis (ZCL), caused by Leishmania major, is a common zoonotic vector-borne disease in Iran. Close contact with infected reservoir hosts increases the probability of transmission of Leishmania parasite infections to susceptible humans. Four gerbil species (Rodentia: Gerbillidae) serve as the main reservoir hosts for ZCL in different endemic foci of Iran. These species include Rhombomys opimus, Meriones libycus, Meriones hurrianae and Tatera indica; while notable infection has been reported in Nesokia indica as well. The purpose of this study is to model the distribution of these reservoirs to identify the risk areas of ZCL. A data bank was developed including all published data during the period of 1970-2015. Maximum entropy model was used to find the most appropriate ecological niches for each species. The areas under curve obtained were 0.961, 0.927, 0.922, 0.997 and 0.899, instead of 1, for training test in R. opimus, M. libycus, T. indica, M. hurrianae and N. indica, respectively. The environmental variable with the highest gain when used in isolation was slope for R. opimus and N. indica, annual mean temperature for M. libycus, and seasonal precipitation for T. indica and M. hurrianae. Summation of presence probabilities for three main species, i.e., R. opimus, M. libycus and T. indica revealed favorable ecological niches in wide areas of 16 provinces. This is the first study to predict the distribution of ZCL reservoir hosts in Iran. Climatology and topography variables had high contributions toward the prediction of potential distribution of the main reservoir species; therefore, as climate changes, the models should be updated periodically with novel data, and the results should be used in disease-monitoring programs. PMID:27150212

  10. Estimating niche width using stable isotopes in the face of habitat variability: a modelling case study in the marine environment.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David O Cummings

    Full Text Available Distributions of stable isotopes have been used to infer an organism's trophic niche width, the 'isotopic niche', and examine resource partitioning. Spatial variation in the isotopic composition of prey may however confound the interpretation of isotopic signatures especially when foragers exploit resources across numerous locations. In this study the isotopic compositions from marine assemblages are modelled to determine the role of variation in the signature of prey items and the effect of dietary breadth and foraging strategies on predator signatures. Outputs from the models reveal that isotopic niche widths can be greater for populations of dietary specialists rather than for generalists, which contravenes what is generally accepted in the literature. When a range of different mixing models are applied to determine if the conversion from δ to p-space can be used to improve model accuracy, predator signature variation is increased rather than model precision. Furthermore the mixing models applied failed to correctly identify dietary specialists and/or to accurately estimate diet contributions that may identify resource partitioning. The results presented illustrate the need to collect sufficiently large sample sizes, in excess of what is collected under most current studies, across the complete distribution of a species and its prey, before attempts to use stable isotopes to make inferences about niche width can be made.

  11. Estimating niche width using stable isotopes in the face of habitat variability: a modelling case study in the marine environment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cummings, David O; Buhl, Jerome; Lee, Raymond W; Simpson, Stephen J; Holmes, Sebastian P

    2012-01-01

    Distributions of stable isotopes have been used to infer an organism's trophic niche width, the 'isotopic niche', and examine resource partitioning. Spatial variation in the isotopic composition of prey may however confound the interpretation of isotopic signatures especially when foragers exploit resources across numerous locations. In this study the isotopic compositions from marine assemblages are modelled to determine the role of variation in the signature of prey items and the effect of dietary breadth and foraging strategies on predator signatures. Outputs from the models reveal that isotopic niche widths can be greater for populations of dietary specialists rather than for generalists, which contravenes what is generally accepted in the literature. When a range of different mixing models are applied to determine if the conversion from δ to p-space can be used to improve model accuracy, predator signature variation is increased rather than model precision. Furthermore the mixing models applied failed to correctly identify dietary specialists and/or to accurately estimate diet contributions that may identify resource partitioning. The results presented illustrate the need to collect sufficiently large sample sizes, in excess of what is collected under most current studies, across the complete distribution of a species and its prey, before attempts to use stable isotopes to make inferences about niche width can be made. PMID:22876280

  12. Modelling Niche Differentiation of Co-Existing, Elusive and Morphologically Similar Species: A Case Study of Four Macaque Species in Nakai-Nam Theun National Protected Area, Laos

    OpenAIRE

    Camille N. Z. Coudrat; K. Anne-Isola Nekaris

    2013-01-01

    Simple Summary We investigated the niche separation of four macaque species (Macaca arctoides, M. assamensis, M. leonina, M. mulatta) occurring within Nakai-Nam Theun National Protected Area, central-eastern Laos using the environmental niche modelling software MaxEnt. The respective suitable habitat predicted for each species reveals niche segregation between the four species with a gradual geographical distribution following an environmental gradient of, notably, temperature, precipitation,...

  13. Modelling species invasions using thermal and trophic niche dynamics under climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simone eLibralato

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Changing marine temperatures modify the distributional ranges of natural populations, but the success of invasion of new areas depends on local physical and ecological conditions. We explore the invasion by thermophilic species and their ecosystem effects by simulating a sea surface temperature increase using a trophodynamic model for the northern Adriatic Sea (NAS, in which thermal and trophic niches are explicitly represented for each thermophilic non-indigenous species and native species. The NAS acts as a cul-de-sac for local species, preventing a further poleward migration as a response to temperature rise. In this situation, model results showed that effects of warming and invasion produced complex, non-linear changes on biomasses but never resulted in a complete overturn of a group of native species and/or a bloom of invasive ones. Despite this, the diversity index stabilizes at increased values after simulating invasion, possibly indicating that in such enclosed systems the establishment of invasive species could represent enrichment in ecosystem structure. In addition, the absence of complete species substitution clearly showed the contribution of resident species towards increasing the resilience, i.e. the capability of the system to cope with invasion without changing substantially. Contrasting scenarios highlighted that changes in ecosystem primary production and species adaptation had secondary effects in ecosystem structure, while results for scenarios with different exploitation levels indicated that fishing can destabilize community structure in these change contexts, e.g. reducing community resilience. The results confirmed the importance of an ecological niche approach to analyze possible effects of invasion and highlighted the complexity of dynamics linked to temperature-driven species invasion’, in terms of both the predicted strength of impacts and the direction of biomass change.

  14. Pitch the niche - taking responsibility for the concepts we use in ecology and species distribution modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    McInerny, Greg J.; Etienne, Rampal S.

    2012-01-01

    In a discussion it is often easier to staunchly reject or offer resolute support for an idea. This third paper on the niche concept aims to develop a balanced argument by exploring general principles for determining an appropriate level for pitching the niche concept that will guide better use and l

  15. The use of ecological niche modeling to infer potential risk areas of snakebite in the Mexican state of Veracruz.

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    Carlos Yañez-Arenas

    Full Text Available Many authors have claimed that snakebite risk is associated with human population density, human activities, and snake behavior. Here we analyzed whether environmental suitability of vipers can be used as an indicator of snakebite risk. We tested several hypotheses to explain snakebite incidence, through the construction of models incorporating both environmental suitability and socioeconomic variables in Veracruz, Mexico.Ecological niche modeling (ENM was used to estimate potential geographic and ecological distributions of nine viper species' in Veracruz. We calculated the distance to the species' niche centroid (DNC; this distance may be associated with a prediction of abundance. We found significant inverse relationships between snakebites and DNCs of common vipers (Crotalus simus and Bothrops asper, explaining respectively 15% and almost 35% of variation in snakebite incidence. Additionally, DNCs for these two vipers, in combination with marginalization of human populations, accounted for 76% of variation in incidence.Our results suggest that niche modeling and niche-centroid distance approaches can be used to mapping distributions of environmental suitability for venomous snakes; combining this ecological information with socioeconomic factors may help with inferring potential risk areas for snakebites, since hospital data are often biased (especially when incidences are low.

  16. Modeling electricity loads in California: ARMA models with hyperbolic noise

    OpenAIRE

    Joanna Nowicka-Zagrajek; Rafal Weron

    2001-01-01

    In this paper we address the issue of modeling and forecasting electricity loads. We apply a two-step procedure to a series of system-wide loads from the California power market. First, we remove the weekly and annual seasonalities. Then, after analyzing properties of the deseasonalized data we fit an autoregressive moving average model. The obtained residuals seem to be independent but with tails heavier than Gaussian. It turns out that the hyperbolic distribution provides an excellent fit. ...

  17. Point Reyes, California Tsunami Forecast Grids for MOST Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Point Reyes, California Forecast Model Grids provides bathymetric data strictly for tsunami inundation modeling with the Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST)...

  18. Los Angeles, California Tsunami Forecast Grids for MOST Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Los Angeles, California Forecast Model Grids provides bathymetric data strictly for tsunami inundation modeling with the Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST)...

  19. Indirect Energy Flows in Niche Model Food Webs: Effects of Size and Connectance.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jane Shevtsov

    Full Text Available Indirect interactions between species have long been of interest to ecologists. One such interaction type takes place when energy or materials flow via one or more intermediate species between two species with a direct predator-prey relationship. Previous work has shown that, although each such flow is small, their great number makes them important in ecosystems. A new network analysis method, dynamic environ approximation, was used to quantify the fraction of energy flowing from prey to predator over paths of length greater than 1 (flow indirectness or FI in a commonly studied food web model. Web structure was created using the niche model and dynamics followed the Yodzis-Innes model. The effect of food web size (10 to 40 species and connectance (0.1 to 0.48 on FI was examined. For each of 250 model realizations run for each pair of size and connectance values, the FI of every predator-prey interaction in the model was computed and then averaged over the whole network. A classification and regression tree (CART analysis was then used to find the best predictors of FI. The mean FI of the model food webs is 0.092, with a standard deviation of 0.0279. It tends to increase with system size but peaks at intermediate connectance levels. Of 27 potential predictor variables, only five (mean path length, dominant eigenvalue of the adjacency matrix, connectance, mean trophic level and fraction of species belonging to intermediate trophic levels were selected by the CART algorithm as best accounting for variation in the data; mean path length and the dominant eigenvalue of the adjacency matrix were dominant.

  20. AB 1725 Model Accountability System. California Community Colleges. Revised.

    Science.gov (United States)

    California Community Colleges, Sacramento. Board of Governors.

    This report proposes a model accountability system for the California community colleges to comply with the directives of Assembly Bill 1725 (AB 1725). The purpose of the accountability system is to provide colleges and districts, the board of governors, and the California legislature with information that will allow for the continued improvement…

  1. PREDICTIONS IN AN INVADED WORLD - PART II: USING NICHE MODELS TO PREDICT DISTRIBUTIONS OF MARINE/ESTUARINE SPECIES AT THE ESTUARY SCALE

    Science.gov (United States)

    To better understand the potential geographical distributions of nonindigenous species (NIS), we are evaluating the ability of niche models to predict the presence of existing native and NIS species within individual estuaries based on landscape characteristics. One model being ...

  2. A tale of four "carp": invasion potential and ecological niche modeling.

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    Shannon C DeVaney

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Invasive species are a serious problem in ecosystems, but are difficult to eradicate once established. Predictive methods can be key in determining which areas are of concern regarding invasion by such species to prevent establishment [1]. We assessed the geographic potential of four Eurasian cyprinid fishes (common carp, tench, grass carp, black carp as invaders in North America via ecological niche modeling (ENM. These "carp" represent four stages of invasion of the continent (a long-established invader with a wide distribution, a long-established invader with a limited distribution, a spreading invader whose distribution is expanding, and a newly introduced potential invader that is not yet established, and as such illustrate the progressive reduction of distributional disequilibrium over the history of species' invasions. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We used ENM to estimate the potential distributional area for each species in North America using models based on native range distribution data. Environmental data layers for native and introduced ranges were imported from state, national, and international climate and environmental databases. Models were evaluated using independent validation data on native and invaded areas. We calculated omission error for the independent validation data for each species: all native range tests were highly successful (all omission values <7%; invaded-range predictions were predictive for common and grass carp (omission values 8.8 and 19.8%, respectively. Model omission was high for introduced tench populations (54.7%, but the model correctly identified some areas where the species has been successful; distributional predictions for black carp show that large portions of eastern North America are at risk. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: ENMs predicted potential ranges of carp species accurately even in regions where the species have not been present until recently. ENM can forecast species' potential

  3. Geographic Distribution of Chagas Disease Vectors in Brazil Based on Ecological Niche Modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rodrigo Gurgel-Gonçalves

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Although Brazil was declared free from Chagas disease transmission by the domestic vector Triatoma infestans, human acute cases are still being registered based on transmission by native triatomine species. For a better understanding of transmission risk, the geographic distribution of Brazilian triatomines was analyzed. Sixteen out of 62 Brazilian species that both occur in >20 municipalities and present synanthropic tendencies were modeled based on their ecological niches. Panstrongylus geniculatus and P. megistus showed broad ecological ranges, but most of the species sort out by the biome in which they are distributed: Rhodnius pictipes and R. robustus in the Amazon; R. neglectus, Triatoma sordida, and T. costalimai in the Cerrado; R. nasutus, P. lutzi, T. brasiliensis, T. pseudomaculata, T. melanocephala, and T. petrocchiae in the Caatinga; T. rubrovaria in the southern pampas; T. tibiamaculata and T. vitticeps in the Atlantic Forest. Although most occurrences were recorded in open areas (Cerrado and Caatinga, our results show that all environmental conditions in the country are favorable to one or more of the species analyzed, such that almost nowhere is Chagas transmission risk negligible.

  4. Evolutionary responses to a constructed niche: ancient Mesoamericans as a model of gene-culture coevolution.

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    Tábita Hünemeier

    Full Text Available Culture and genetics rely on two distinct but not isolated transmission systems. Cultural processes may change the human selective environment and thereby affect which individuals survive and reproduce. Here, we evaluated whether the modes of subsistence in Native American populations and the frequencies of the ABCA1*Arg230Cys polymorphism were correlated. Further, we examined whether the evolutionary consequences of the agriculturally constructed niche in Mesoamerica could be considered as a gene-culture coevolution model. For this purpose, we genotyped 229 individuals affiliated with 19 Native American populations and added data for 41 other Native American groups (n = 1905 to the analysis. In combination with the SNP cluster of a neutral region, this dataset was then used to unravel the scenario involved in 230Cys evolutionary history. The estimated age of 230Cys is compatible with its origin occurring in the American continent. The correlation of its frequencies with the archeological data on Zea pollen in Mesoamerica/Central America, the neutral coalescent simulations, and the F(ST-based natural selection analysis suggest that maize domestication was the driving force in the increase in the frequencies of 230Cys in this region. These results may represent the first example of a gene-culture coevolution involving an autochthonous American allele.

  5. Tracking a medically important spider: climate change, ecological niche modeling, and the brown recluse (Loxosceles reclusa.

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    Erin E Saupe

    Full Text Available Most spiders use venom to paralyze their prey and are commonly feared for their potential to cause injury to humans. In North America, one species in particular, Loxosceles reclusa (brown recluse spider, Sicariidae, causes the majority of necrotic wounds induced by the Araneae. However, its distributional limitations are poorly understood and, as a result, medical professionals routinely misdiagnose brown recluse bites outside endemic areas, confusing putative spider bites for other serious conditions. To address the issue of brown recluse distribution, we employ ecological niche modeling to investigate the present and future distributional potential of this species. We delineate range boundaries and demonstrate that under future climate change scenarios, the spider's distribution may expand northward, invading previously unaffected regions of the USA. At present, the spider's range is centered in the USA, from Kansas east to Kentucky and from southern Iowa south to Louisiana. Newly influenced areas may include parts of Nebraska, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, South Dakota, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. These results illustrate a potential negative consequence of climate change on humans and will aid medical professionals in proper bite identification/treatment, potentially reducing bite misdiagnoses.

  6. Tracking a medically important spider: climate change, ecological niche modeling, and the brown recluse (Loxosceles reclusa).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saupe, Erin E; Papes, Monica; Selden, Paul A; Vetter, Richard S

    2011-01-01

    Most spiders use venom to paralyze their prey and are commonly feared for their potential to cause injury to humans. In North America, one species in particular, Loxosceles reclusa (brown recluse spider, Sicariidae), causes the majority of necrotic wounds induced by the Araneae. However, its distributional limitations are poorly understood and, as a result, medical professionals routinely misdiagnose brown recluse bites outside endemic areas, confusing putative spider bites for other serious conditions. To address the issue of brown recluse distribution, we employ ecological niche modeling to investigate the present and future distributional potential of this species. We delineate range boundaries and demonstrate that under future climate change scenarios, the spider's distribution may expand northward, invading previously unaffected regions of the USA. At present, the spider's range is centered in the USA, from Kansas east to Kentucky and from southern Iowa south to Louisiana. Newly influenced areas may include parts of Nebraska, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, South Dakota, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. These results illustrate a potential negative consequence of climate change on humans and will aid medical professionals in proper bite identification/treatment, potentially reducing bite misdiagnoses. PMID:21464985

  7. Quercus suber range dynamics by ecological niche modelling: from the Last Interglacial to present time

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vessella, Federico; Simeone, Marco Cosimo; Schirone, Bartolomeo

    2015-07-01

    Ecological Niche Modelling (ENM) is widely used to depict species potential occurrence according to environmental variables under different climatic scenarios. We tested the ENM approach to infer past range dynamics of cork oak, a keystone species of the Mediterranean Biome, from 130 ka to the present time. Hindcasting implications would deal with a better species risk assessment and conservation management for the future. We modelled present and past occurrence of cork oak using seven ENM algorithms, starting from 63,733 spatially unique presence points at 30 arc-second resolution. Fourteen environmental variables were used and four time slices were considered (Last Interglacial, Last Glacial Maximum, mid-Holocene and present time). A threshold-independent evaluation of the goodness-of-fit of the models was evaluated by means of ROC curve and fossil or historical evidences were used to validate the results. Four weighted average maps depicted the dynamics of area suitability for cork oak in the last 130 ka. The derived species autoecology allowed its long-term occurrence in the Mediterranean without striking range reduction or shifting. Fossil and historical post-processing validation support the modelled past spatial extension and a neglected species presence at Levantine until the recent time. Despite the severe climatic oscillation since the Last Glacial Maximum, cork oak potential distribution area experienced limited range changes, confirming its strong link with the Mediterranean Basin. The ecological amplitude of Quercus suber could be therefore adopted as a reference to trace the Mediterranean bioclimate area. A better knowledge of the past events of Mediterranean vegetation, a wider range of study species and environmental determinants are essential to inform us about its current state, its sensitivity to human impact and the potential responses to future changes.

  8. Tomb niche

    OpenAIRE

    O'Donovan, Danielle

    2004-01-01

    Capital frieze running along jamb of tomb niche. Moulding from the top down comprises: chamfer, frontal fillet, angle-fillet, fillet, angle-fillet, flat surface, angle-fillet, fillet, flat surface. The lower secion can be read as a stepped rebate.

  9. Predicting the current and future potential distributions of lymphatic filariasis in Africa using maximum entropy ecological niche modelling.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hannah Slater

    Full Text Available Modelling the spatial distributions of human parasite species is crucial to understanding the environmental determinants of infection as well as for guiding the planning of control programmes. Here, we use ecological niche modelling to map the current potential distribution of the macroparasitic disease, lymphatic filariasis (LF, in Africa, and to estimate how future changes in climate and population could affect its spread and burden across the continent. We used 508 community-specific infection presence data collated from the published literature in conjunction with five predictive environmental/climatic and demographic variables, and a maximum entropy niche modelling method to construct the first ecological niche maps describing potential distribution and burden of LF in Africa. We also ran the best-fit model against climate projections made by the HADCM3 and CCCMA models for 2050 under A2a and B2a scenarios to simulate the likely distribution of LF under future climate and population changes. We predict a broad geographic distribution of LF in Africa extending from the west to the east across the middle region of the continent, with high probabilities of occurrence in the Western Africa compared to large areas of medium probability interspersed with smaller areas of high probability in Central and Eastern Africa and in Madagascar. We uncovered complex relationships between predictor ecological niche variables and the probability of LF occurrence. We show for the first time that predicted climate change and population growth will expand both the range and risk of LF infection (and ultimately disease in an endemic region. We estimate that populations at risk to LF may range from 543 and 804 million currently, and that this could rise to between 1.65 to 1.86 billion in the future depending on the climate scenario used and thresholds applied to signify infection presence.

  10. Body size and the small branch niche: using marsupial ontogeny to model primate locomotor evolution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shapiro, Liza J; Young, Jesse W; VandeBerg, John L

    2014-03-01

    Recently proposed ancestral locomotor and morphological 'stages' leading to the evolution of primates have emphasized small body size, and a transition from a clawed non-grasping stage, to a clawed, grasping stage with clawless opposable hallux, to a fully-nailed primate with grasping extremities. This evolutionary transition was presumably associated with frequent use of the small branch niche. To model elements of these evolutionary transitions, we investigate how body size, substrate size, substrate orientation and grasping morphology interact to influence quadrupedal kinematics within and between ontogenetic samples of two small-bodied marsupials, one arboreal (Petaurus breviceps) and the other mainly terrestrial (Monodelphis domestica). Longitudinal morphometric and kinematic data were collected from four juvenile P. breviceps (33-75 g) and two juvenile M. domestica (18-95 g) walking across poles of three diameters (2.5, 1.0, and 0.5 cm) and three orientations (horizontal, 30° incline, 30° decline). The two species responded similarly to some substrate conditions, but diverged in response to others. Kinematic divergence between the two species reflects Monodelphis' relatively shorter digits, reduced grasping ability and greater need for stabilizing mechanisms on narrow substrates. At a given relative body size or pole orientation, Monodelphis used higher limb duty factors, more limbs in support per stride, lower limb phases, and in some conditions, faster speeds compared with Petaurus. Interspecific differences were the least distinct on declined poles, highlighting the particular challenge of this substrate condition, even for arboreally adapted species. Small-bodied, arboreal primate ancestors would likely have employed the kinematic mechanisms common to our model taxa, but those with enhanced grasping adaptations would most likely not have required the increased level of stabilizing mechanisms exhibited by Monodelphis. Thus, using these two species

  11. Ecological niche modelling and nDNA sequencing support a new, morphologically cryptic beetle species unveiled by DNA barcoding.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oliver Hawlitschek

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: DNA sequencing techniques used to estimate biodiversity, such as DNA barcoding, may reveal cryptic species. However, disagreements between barcoding and morphological data have already led to controversy. Species delimitation should therefore not be based on mtDNA alone. Here, we explore the use of nDNA and bioclimatic modelling in a new species of aquatic beetle revealed by mtDNA sequence data. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The aquatic beetle fauna of Australia is characterised by high degrees of endemism, including local radiations such as the genus Antiporus. Antiporus femoralis was previously considered to exist in two disjunct, but morphologically indistinguishable populations in south-western and south-eastern Australia. We constructed a phylogeny of Antiporus and detected a deep split between these populations. Diagnostic characters from the highly variable nuclear protein encoding arginine kinase gene confirmed the presence of two isolated populations. We then used ecological niche modelling to examine the climatic niche characteristics of the two populations. All results support the status of the two populations as distinct species. We describe the south-western species as Antiporus occidentalis sp.n. CONCLUSION/SIGNIFICANCE: In addition to nDNA sequence data and extended use of mitochondrial sequences, ecological niche modelling has great potential for delineating morphologically cryptic species.

  12. Using remote sensing, ecological niche modeling, and Geographic Information Systems for Rift Valley fever risk assessment in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tedrow, Christine Atkins

    The primary goal in this study was to explore remote sensing, ecological niche modeling, and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) as aids in predicting candidate Rift Valley fever (RVF) competent vector abundance and distribution in Virginia, and as means of estimating where risk of establishment in mosquitoes and risk of transmission to human populations would be greatest in Virginia. A second goal in this study was to determine whether the remotely-sensed Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) can be used as a proxy variable of local conditions for the development of mosquitoes to predict mosquito species distribution and abundance in Virginia. As part of this study, a mosquito surveillance database was compiled to archive the historical patterns of mosquito species abundance in Virginia. In addition, linkages between mosquito density and local environmental and climatic patterns were spatially and temporally examined. The present study affirms the potential role of remote sensing imagery for species distribution prediction, and it demonstrates that ecological niche modeling is a valuable predictive tool to analyze the distributions of populations. The MaxEnt ecological niche modeling program was used to model predicted ranges for potential RVF competent vectors in Virginia. The MaxEnt model was shown to be robust, and the candidate RVF competent vector predicted distribution map is presented. The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) was found to be the most useful environmental-climatic variable to predict mosquito species distribution and abundance in Virginia. However, these results indicate that a more robust prediction is obtained by including other environmental-climatic factors correlated to mosquito densities (e.g., temperature, precipitation, elevation) with NDVI. The present study demonstrates that remote sensing and GIS can be used with ecological niche and risk modeling methods to estimate risk of virus establishment in mosquitoes and

  13. Plant stem cell niches.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aichinger, Ernst; Kornet, Noortje; Friedrich, Thomas; Laux, Thomas

    2012-01-01

    Multicellular organisms possess pluripotent stem cells to form new organs, replenish the daily loss of cells, or regenerate organs after injury. Stem cells are maintained in specific environments, the stem cell niches, that provide signals to block differentiation. In plants, stem cell niches are situated in the shoot, root, and vascular meristems-self-perpetuating units of organ formation. Plants' lifelong activity-which, as in the case of trees, can extend over more than a thousand years-requires that a robust regulatory network keep the balance between pluripotent stem cells and differentiating descendants. In this review, we focus on current models in plant stem cell research elaborated during the past two decades, mainly in the model plant Arabidopsis thaliana. We address the roles of mobile signals on transcriptional modules involved in balancing cell fates. In addition, we discuss shared features of and differences between the distinct stem cell niches of Arabidopsis.

  14. A niche for neutrality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adler, Peter B; Hillerislambers, Janneke; Levine, Jonathan M

    2007-02-01

    Ecologists now recognize that controversy over the relative importance of niches and neutrality cannot be resolved by analyzing species abundance patterns. Here, we use classical coexistence theory to reframe the debate in terms of stabilizing mechanisms (niches) and fitness equivalence (neutrality). The neutral model is a special case where stabilizing mechanisms are absent and species have equivalent fitness. Instead of asking whether niches or neutral processes structure communities, we advocate determining the degree to which observed diversity reflects strong stabilizing mechanisms overcoming large fitness differences or weak stabilization operating on species of similar fitness. To answer this question, we propose combining data on per capita growth rates with models to: (i) quantify the strength of stabilizing processes; (ii) quantify fitness inequality and compare it with stabilization; and (iii) manipulate frequency dependence in growth to test the consequences of stabilization and fitness equivalence for coexistence. PMID:17257097

  15. California Basin Characterization Model Downscaled Climate and Hydrology

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — The California Basin Characterization Model (CA-BCM 2014) dataset provides historical and projected climate and hydrologic surfaces for the region that encompasses...

  16. Ecological niche modeling of coastal dune plants and future potential distribution in response to climate change and sea level rise.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mendoza-González, Gabriela; Martínez, M Luisa; Rojas-Soto, Octavio R; Vázquez, Gabriela; Gallego-Fernández, Juan B

    2013-08-01

    Climate change (CC) and sea level rise (SLR) are phenomena that could have severe impacts on the distribution of coastal dune vegetation. To explore this we modeled the climatic niches of six coastal dunes plant species that grow along the shoreline of the Gulf of Mexico and the Yucatan Peninsula, and projected climatic niches to future potential distributions based on two CC scenarios and SLR projections. Our analyses suggest that distribution of coastal plants will be severely limited, and more so in the case of local endemics (Chamaecrista chamaecristoides, Palafoxia lindenii, Cakile edentula). The possibilities of inland migration to the potential 'new shoreline' will be limited by human infrastructure and ecosystem alteration that will lead to a 'coastal squeeze' of the coastal habitats. Finally, we identified areas as future potential refuges for the six species in central Gulf of Mexico, and northern Yucatán Peninsula especially under CC and SLR scenarios. PMID:23625760

  17. Niche explosion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Normark, Benjamin B; Johnson, Norman A

    2011-05-01

    The following syndrome of features occurs in several groups of phytophagous insects: (1) wingless females, (2) dispersal by larvae, (3) woody hosts, (4) extreme polyphagy, (5) high abundance, resulting in status as economic pests, (6) invasiveness, and (7) obligate parthenogenesis in some populations. If extreme polyphagy is defined as feeding on 20 or more families of hostplants, this syndrome is found convergently in several species of bagworm moths, tussock moths, root weevils, and 5 families of scale insects. We hypothesize that extreme polyphagy in these taxa results from "niche explosion", a positive feedback loop connecting large population size to broad host range. The niche explosion has a demographic component (sometimes called the "amplification effect" in studies of pathogens) as well as a population-genetic component, due mainly to the increased effectiveness of natural selection in larger populations. The frequent origins of parthenogenesis in extreme polyphages are, in our interpretation, a consequence of this increased effectiveness of natural selection and consequent reduced importance of sexuality. The niche explosion hypothesis makes detailed predictions about the comparative genomics and population genetics of extreme polyphages and related specialists. It has a number of potentially important implications, including an explanation for the lack of observed trade-offs between generalists and specialists, a re-interpretation of the ecological correlates of parthenogenesis, and a general expectation that Malthusian population explosions may be amplified by Darwinian effects.

  18. Explanative power of variables used in species distribution modelling: an issue of general model transferability or niche shift in the invasive Greenhouse frog ( Eleutherodactylus planirostris)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rödder, Dennis; Lötters, Stefan

    2010-09-01

    The use of species distribution models (SDMs) to predict potential distributions of species is steadily increasing. A necessary assumption when projecting models throughout space or time is that climatic niches are conservative, but recent findings of niche shifts during biological invasion of particular plant and animal species have indicated that this assumption is not categorically valid. One reason for observed shifts may relate to variable selection for modelling. In this study, we assess differences in climatic niches in the native and invasive ranges of the Greenhouse frog ( Eleutherodactylus planirostris). We analyze which variables are more ‘conserved’ in comparison to more ‘relaxed’ variables (i.e. subject to niche shift) and how they influence transferability of SDMs developed with Maxent on the basis of ten bioclimatic layers best describing the climatic requirements of the target species. We focus on degrees of niche similarity and conservatism using Schoener's index and Hellinger distance. Significance of results are tested with null models. Results indicate that the degrees of niche similarity and conservatism vary greatly among the predictive variables. Some shifts can be attributed to active habitat selection, whereas others apparently reflect variation in the availability of climate conditions or biotic interactions between the frogs' native and invasive ranges. Patterns suggesting active habitat selection also vary among variables. Our findings evoke considerable implications on the transferability of SDMs over space and time, which is strongly affected by the choice and number of predictors. The incorporation of ‘relaxed’ predictors not or only indirectly correlated with biologically meaningful predictors may lead to erroneous predictions when projecting SDMs. We recommend thorough assessments of invasive species' ecology for the identification biologically meaningful predictors facilitating transferability.

  19. The distribution, dominance patterns and ecological niches of plankton functional types in Dynamic Green Ocean Models and satellite estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vogt, M.; Hashioka, T.; Payne, M. R.; Buitenhuis, E. T.; Le Quéré, C.; Alvain, S.; Aita, M. N.; Bopp, L.; Doney, S. C.; Hirata, T.; Lima, I.; Sailley, S.; Yamanaka, Y.

    2013-11-01

    We compare the spatial and temporal representation of phytoplankton functional types (pPFTs) in four different Dynamic Green Ocean Models (DGOMs; CCSM-BEC, NEMURO, PISCES and PlankTOM5) to derived phytoplankton distributions from two independent satellite estimates, with a particular focus on diatom distributions. Global annual mean surface biomass estimates for diatoms vary between 0.23 mmol C m-3 and 0.77 mmol C m-3 in the models, and are comparable to a satellite-derived estimate (0.41 mmol C m-3). All models consistently simulate a higher zonal mean diatom biomass contribution in the high latitudes than in the low latitudes, but the relative diatom contribution varies substantially between models with largest differences in the high latitudes (20% to 100% of total biomass). We investigate phytoplankton distribution in terms of annual and monthly mean dominance patterns, i.e. the distribution of locations where a given PFT contributes more than 50% to total biomass. In all models, diatoms tend to dominate large areas of the high latitudes of both hemispheres, and the area of the surface ocean dominated by diatoms is significantly higher in the models than in the satellite estimates. We estimate the realized ecological niches filled by the dominant pPFT at each location as a function of annual mean surface nitrate concentration (NO3), sea surface temperature (SST), and mixed layer depth. A general additive model (GAM) is used to map the probability of dominance of all pPFTs in niche and geographic space. Models tend to simulate diatom dominance over a wider temperature and nutrient range, whereas satellites confine diatom dominance to a narrower niche of low-intermediate annual mean temperatures (annual mean SST niches in different ranges of surface NO3 concentrations. For annual mean diatom dominance, the statistically modelled probability of dominance explains the majority of the variance in the data (65.2-66.6%). For the satellite estimates, the explained

  20. Using kernels and ecological niche modeling to delineate conservation areas in an endangered patch-breeding phenotype.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Denoël, Mathieu; Ficetola, Gentile Francesco

    2015-10-01

    Efficient delineation of conservation areas is a great challenge in maintaining biodiversity. Kernel density estimators (KDEs) are a powerful tool in this perspective, but they have not been applied at the population level on patch-distributed organisms. This would be particularly worthy for species that need broad habitats beyond those where they can be sampled; such as terrestrial lands for pond-breeding amphibians. The aim of this study was to compare different approaches for the identification of suitable areas for conservation: KDE, ecological niche modelling, and a combination of KDE and niche models. Paedomorphosis was chosen as a model system because this is an important form of intraspecific variation that is present in numerous taxa, but geographically localized within species and globally endangered. 277 ponds were sampled in one of the hotspots of paedomorphosis to determine the abundance and distribution of paedomorphs (i.e., individuals retaining gills at the adult stage) of the palmate newt (Lissotriton helveticus), with emphasis on the connections between the most valuable populations. KDEs gave insights into the surface areas required to balance the maintenance of certain number of connected ponds and the respective number of disjoint areas in which the whole population is divided. The inclusion of barriers in the models helped in accurately designing the limits of the areas to protect. Alone, habitat models were not able to successfully delineate the area to protect, but the integration between terrestrial suitable areas or barriers and KDE allowed an objective identification of areas required for conservation. Overall, the best performance was observed by the KDE integrating ecological barriers, and by the combination between KDE and niche modelling. In a broader perspective, KDEs are thus a pertinent tool in providing quantitative spatial measurements to delineate conservation areas based on patch-abundance data with a specific focus to

  1. Climatic niche conservatism and biogeographical non-equilibrium in Eschscholzia californica (Papaveraceae, an invasive plant in the Chilean Mediterranean region.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francisco T Peña-Gómez

    Full Text Available Species climate requirements are useful for predicting their geographic distribution. It is often assumed that the niche requirements for invasive plants are conserved during invasion, especially when the invaded regions share similar climate conditions. California and central Chile have a remarkable degree of convergence in their vegetation structure, and a similar Mediterranean climate. Such similarities make these geographic areas an interesting natural experiment for testing climatic niche dynamics and the equilibrium of invasive species in a new environment. We tested to see if the climatic niche of Eschscholzia californica is conserved in the invaded range (central Chile, and we assessed whether the invasion process has reached a biogeographical equilibrium, i.e., occupy all the suitable geographic locations that have suitable conditions under native niche requirements. We compared the climatic niche in the native and invaded ranges as well as the projected potential geographic distribution in the invaded range. In order to compare climatic niches, we conducted a Principal Component Analysis (PCA and Species Distribution Models (SDMs, to estimate E. californica's potential geographic distribution. We also used SDMs to predict altitudinal distribution limits in central Chile. Our results indicated that the climatic niche occupied by E. californica in the invaded range is firmly conserved, occupying a subset of the native climatic niche but leaving a substantial fraction of it unfilled. Comparisons of projected SDMs for central Chile indicate a similarity, yet the projection from native range predicted a larger geographic distribution in central Chile compared to the prediction of the model constructed for central Chile. The projected niche occupancy profile from California predicted a higher mean elevation than that projected from central Chile. We concluded that the invasion process of E. californica in central Chile is consistent with

  2. Using ecological-niche modeling as a conservation tool for freshwater species: live-bearing fishes in central Mexico.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Domínguez-Domínguez, Omar; Martínez-Meyer, Enrique; Zambrano, Luis; De León, Gerardo Pérez-Ponce

    2006-12-01

    Ecological-niche modeling is an important tool for conservation assessment of terrestrial species; however, its applicability has been poorly explored in the aquatic realm. Goodeines are a monophyletic group of viviparous freshwater fishes that are well known in central Mexico, with 41 species in 19 genera. Given the number of threats to biodiversity in the region, goodeines represent an excellent model with which to test novel conservation approaches. We assessed the conservation status of the goodeines (37 species), based on their potential distributions predicted by ecological-niche models generated with the genetic algorithm for rule-set prediction (GARP). Predictions of species' distributions performed well in six out of eight species for which sufficient information was available to perform estimations of the area under the curve (AUC) in receiver operating characteristic plots. Extensive field surveys conducted in recent years in most cases confirm the models' predictions. Species richness exhibited a nested pattern, in which the number of species increased toward the center of the distribution of the group. At the basin level, the Río Ameca Basin had the highest number of species (11), chiefly because of the high number of microendemic species (6). Human activities within water bodies (e.g., extensive aquaculture) and drainages (e.g., agriculture, ranching, industrial activities) have affected most goodeines severely, given the deleterious effects of pollution and introductions of exotic species, such as carp (Cyprinus carpio, Ctenopharingodon idella) and tilapia (Oreochromis spp.). Our results paint a pessimistic picture for the long-term survival of many goodeines in their natural environment, and realistic conservation measures are complex and would require immediate protection of specific areas that we have identified. Ecological-niche modeling is a suitable tool for conservation assessment of freshwater species, but availability of environmental

  3. High resolution niche models of malaria vectors in northern Tanzania: a new capacity to predict malaria risk?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manisha A Kulkarni

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Malaria transmission rates in Africa can vary dramatically over the space of a few kilometres. This spatial heterogeneity reflects variation in vector mosquito habitat and presents an important obstacle to the efficient allocation of malaria control resources. Malaria control is further complicated by combinations of vector species that respond differently to control interventions. Recent modelling innovations make it possible to predict vector distributions and extrapolate malaria risk continentally, but these risk mapping efforts have not yet bridged the spatial gap to guide on-the-ground control efforts. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We used Maximum Entropy with purpose-built, high resolution land cover data and other environmental factors to model the spatial distributions of the three dominant malaria vector species in a 94,000 km(2 region of east Africa. Remotely sensed land cover was necessary in each vector's niche model. Seasonality of precipitation and maximum annual temperature also contributed to niche models for Anopheles arabiensis and An. funestus s.l. (AUC 0.989 and 0.991, respectively, but cold season precipitation and elevation were important for An. gambiae s.s. (AUC 0.997. Although these niche models appear highly accurate, the critical test is whether they improve predictions of malaria prevalence in human populations. Vector habitat within 1.5 km of community-based malaria prevalence measurements interacts with elevation to substantially improve predictions of Plasmodium falciparum prevalence in children. The inclusion of the mechanistic link between malaria prevalence and vector habitat greatly improves the precision and accuracy of prevalence predictions (r(2 = 0.83 including vector habitat, or r(2 = 0.50 without vector habitat. Predictions including vector habitat are unbiased (observations vs. model predictions of prevalence: slope = 1.02. Using this model, we generate a high resolution map of predicted

  4. Modellazione della nicchia ecologica di specie marine = Marine species ecological niche modelling

    OpenAIRE

    Castelli, Donatella; Candela, Leonardo; Coro, Gianpaolo; Pagano, Pasquale; Sinibaldi, Fabio

    2013-01-01

    A certain species' niche, i.e. those environmental conditions and resources which permit that species can survive and reproduce, is a basic piece of knowledge for monitoring ocean's populousness from both commercial point of view (to steer fishery activities to defined areas) and from the biological one (to monitor dying species). In the context of the European iMarine project (www.i-marine.eu), the Networked Multimedia Information Systems Laboratory (NeMIS) of the CNR Institute of Informatio...

  5. Comparative phylogeography and niche modeling for three species complexes of SE China (Paradoxornisspp., Pycnonotus spp.,Spizixos spp.)

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Luke B KLICKA; Luke C CAMPILLO; Joseph D MANTHEY; Yanhua QU

    2015-01-01

    Contrasting multiple organisms with similar contemporary distributions, researchers can identify shared evolutionary patterns and provide historical context for community composition. We used three species complexes with overlapping distribu-tions in Southeastern China and surrounding islands to explore the phylogeographic history of the region. Despite similar geo-graphic distributions, genetic data revealed few congruent patterns, but all complexes displayed genetic divergence for Taiwanese populations. Additionally, niche modeling and divergence dating did not find support for diversification associated with the Last Glacial Maximum [Current Zoology 61 (5): 943–950 , 2015].

  6. Redefining the Australian Anthrax Belt: Modeling the Ecological Niche and Predicting the Geographic Distribution of Bacillus anthracis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alassane S Barro

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The ecology and distribution of B. anthracis in Australia is not well understood, despite the continued occurrence of anthrax outbreaks in the eastern states of the country. Efforts to estimate the spatial extent of the risk of disease have been limited to a qualitative definition of an anthrax belt extending from southeast Queensland through the centre of New South Wales and into northern Victoria. This definition of the anthrax belt does not consider the role of environmental conditions in the distribution of B. anthracis. Here, we used the genetic algorithm for rule-set prediction model system (GARP, historical anthrax outbreaks and environmental data to model the ecological niche of B. anthracis and predict its potential geographic distribution in Australia. Our models reveal the niche of B. anthracis in Australia is characterized by a narrow range of ecological conditions concentrated in two disjunct corridors. The most dominant corridor, used to redefine a new anthrax belt, parallels the Eastern Highlands and runs from north Victoria to central east Queensland through the centre of New South Wales. This study has redefined the anthrax belt in eastern Australia and provides insights about the ecological factors that limit the distribution of B. anthracis at the continental scale for Australia. The geographic distributions identified can help inform anthrax surveillance strategies by public and veterinary health agencies.

  7. Redefining the Australian Anthrax Belt: Modeling the Ecological Niche and Predicting the Geographic Distribution of Bacillus anthracis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barro, Alassane S; Fegan, Mark; Moloney, Barbara; Porter, Kelly; Muller, Janine; Warner, Simone; Blackburn, Jason K

    2016-06-01

    The ecology and distribution of B. anthracis in Australia is not well understood, despite the continued occurrence of anthrax outbreaks in the eastern states of the country. Efforts to estimate the spatial extent of the risk of disease have been limited to a qualitative definition of an anthrax belt extending from southeast Queensland through the centre of New South Wales and into northern Victoria. This definition of the anthrax belt does not consider the role of environmental conditions in the distribution of B. anthracis. Here, we used the genetic algorithm for rule-set prediction model system (GARP), historical anthrax outbreaks and environmental data to model the ecological niche of B. anthracis and predict its potential geographic distribution in Australia. Our models reveal the niche of B. anthracis in Australia is characterized by a narrow range of ecological conditions concentrated in two disjunct corridors. The most dominant corridor, used to redefine a new anthrax belt, parallels the Eastern Highlands and runs from north Victoria to central east Queensland through the centre of New South Wales. This study has redefined the anthrax belt in eastern Australia and provides insights about the ecological factors that limit the distribution of B. anthracis at the continental scale for Australia. The geographic distributions identified can help inform anthrax surveillance strategies by public and veterinary health agencies. PMID:27280981

  8. Redefining the Australian Anthrax Belt: Modeling the Ecological Niche and Predicting the Geographic Distribution of Bacillus anthracis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barro, Alassane S.; Fegan, Mark; Moloney, Barbara; Porter, Kelly; Muller, Janine; Warner, Simone; Blackburn, Jason K.

    2016-01-01

    The ecology and distribution of B. anthracis in Australia is not well understood, despite the continued occurrence of anthrax outbreaks in the eastern states of the country. Efforts to estimate the spatial extent of the risk of disease have been limited to a qualitative definition of an anthrax belt extending from southeast Queensland through the centre of New South Wales and into northern Victoria. This definition of the anthrax belt does not consider the role of environmental conditions in the distribution of B. anthracis. Here, we used the genetic algorithm for rule-set prediction model system (GARP), historical anthrax outbreaks and environmental data to model the ecological niche of B. anthracis and predict its potential geographic distribution in Australia. Our models reveal the niche of B. anthracis in Australia is characterized by a narrow range of ecological conditions concentrated in two disjunct corridors. The most dominant corridor, used to redefine a new anthrax belt, parallels the Eastern Highlands and runs from north Victoria to central east Queensland through the centre of New South Wales. This study has redefined the anthrax belt in eastern Australia and provides insights about the ecological factors that limit the distribution of B. anthracis at the continental scale for Australia. The geographic distributions identified can help inform anthrax surveillance strategies by public and veterinary health agencies. PMID:27280981

  9. Modelling Niche Differentiation of Co-Existing, Elusive and Morphologically Similar Species: A Case Study of Four Macaque Species in Nakai-Nam Theun National Protected Area, Laos

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Camille N. Z. Coudrat

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Species misidentification often occurs when dealing with co-existing and morphologically similar species such as macaques, making the study of their ecology challenging. To overcome this issue, we use reliable occurrence data from camera-trap images and transect survey data to model their respective ecological niche and potential distribution locally in Nakai-Nam Theun National Protected Area (NNT NPA, central-Eastern Laos. We investigate niche differentiation of morphologically similar species using four sympatric macaque species in NNT NPA, as our model species: rhesus Macaca mulatta (Taxonomic Serial Number, TSN 180099, Northern pig-tailed M. leonina (TSN not listed; Assamese M. assamensis (TSN 573018 and stump-tailed M. arctoides (TSN 573017. We examine the implications for their conservation. We obtained occurrence data of macaque species from systematic 2006–2011 camera-trapping surveys and 2011–2012 transect surveys and model their niche and potential distribution with MaxEnt software using 25 environmental and topographic variables. The respective suitable habitat predicted for each species reveals niche segregation between the four species with a gradual geographical distribution following an environmental gradient within the study area. Camera-trapping positioned at many locations can increase elusive-species records with a relatively reduced and more systematic sampling effort and provide reliable species occurrence data. These can be used for environmental niche modelling to study niche segregation of morphologically similar species in areas where their distribution remains uncertain. Examining unresolved species' niches and potential distributions can have crucial implications for future research and species' management and conservation even in the most remote regions and for the least-known species.

  10. Transcriptome comparison of distinct osteolineage subsets in the hematopoietic stem cell niche using a triple fluorescent transgenic mouse model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Vionnie W C; Lymperi, Stefania; Ferraro, Francesca; Scadden, David T

    2015-09-01

    The bone marrow niche is recognized as a central player in maintaining and regulating the behavior of hematopoietic stem and progenitor cells. Specific gain-of and loss-of function experiments perturbing a range of osteolineage cells or their secreted proteins had been shown to affect stem cell maintenance (Calvi et al, 2003 [1]; Stier et al., 2005 [2]; Zhang et al., 2003 [3]; Nilsson et al., 2005 [4]; Greenbaum et al., 2013 [5]) and engraftment (Adam et al., 2006, 2009 [6,7]). We used specific in vivo cell deletion approaches to dissect the niche cell-parenchymal cell dependency in a complex bone marrow microenvironment. Endogenous deletion of osteocalcin-expressing (Ocn(+)) cells led to a loss of T immune cells (Yu et al., 2015 [8]. Ocn(+) cells express the Notch ligand DLL4 to communicate with T-competent progenitors, and thereby ensuring T precursor production and expression of chemotactic molecules on their cell surface for subsequent thymic seeding. In contrast, depletion of osterix-expressing (Osx(+)) osteoprogenitors led to reduced B immune cells. These distinct hematopoietic phenotypes suggest specific pairing of mesenchymal niche cells and parenchymal hematopoietic cells in the bone marrow to create unique functional units to support hematopoiesis. Here, we present the global gene expression profiles of these osteolineage subtypes utilizing a triple fluorescent transgenic mouse model (OsxCre(+);Rosa-mCh(+);Ocn:Topaz(+)) that labels Osx(+) cells red, Ocn(+) cells green, and Osx(+) Ocn(+) cells yellow. This system allows isolation of distinct osteolineage subsets within the same animal by flow cytometry. Array data that have been described in our study [8] are also publically available from NCBI Gene Expression Omnibus (GEO) with the accession number GSE66042. Differences in gene expression may correlate with functional difference in supporting hematopoiesis. PMID:26484277

  11. Uses and Requirements of Ecological Niche Models and Related Distributional Models

    OpenAIRE

    A. Townsend Peterson

    2006-01-01

    Abstract.—Modeling approaches that relate known occurrences of species to landscape features to discover ecological properties and predict geographic occurrences have seen extensive recent application in ecology, systematics, and conservation. A key component in this process is estimation or characterization of species’ distributions in ecological space, which can then be useful in understanding their potential distributions in geographic space. Hence, this process is often termed ecological ...

  12. Oral Lactobacilli and Dental Caries: A Model for Niche Adaptation in Humans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caufield, P W; Schön, C N; Saraithong, P; Li, Y; Argimón, S

    2015-09-01

    Lactobacilli have been associated with dental caries for over a century. Here, we review the pertinent literature along with findings from our own study to formulate a working hypothesis about the natural history and role of lactobacilli. Unlike most indigenous microbes that stably colonize a host, lactobacilli appear to be planktonic, opportunistic settlers that can gather and multiply only in certain restrictive niches of the host, at least within the oral cavity. We postulate that the following essential requirements are necessary for sustained colonization of lactobacilli in humans: 1) a stagnant, retentive niche that is mostly anaerobic; 2) a low pH milieu; and 3) ready access to carbohydrates. Three sites on the human body meet these specifications: caries lesions, the stomach, and the vagina. Only a handful of Lactobacillus species is found in caries lesions, but they are largely absent in caries-free children. Lactobacilli present in caries lesions represent both a major contributor to caries progression and a major reservoir to the gastrointestinal (GI) tract. We extend the assertion from other investigators that lactobacilli found in the GI tract originate in the oral cavity by proposing that lactobacilli in the oral cavity arise from caries lesions. This, in turn, leads us to reflect on the health implications of the lactobacilli in the mouth and downstream GI and to ponder whether these or any of the Lactobacillus species are truly indigenous to the human GI tract or the oral cavity.

  13. Climate-driven diversification and Pleistocene refugia in Philippine birds: evidence from phylogeographic structure and paleoenvironmental niche modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hosner, Peter A; Sánchez-González, Luis A; Peterson, A Townsend; Moyle, Robert G

    2014-09-01

    Avian diversification in oceanic archipelagos is largely attributed to isolation across marine barriers. During glacial maxima, lowered sea levels resulted in repeated land connections between islands joined by shallow seas. Consequently, such islands are not expected to show endemism. However, if climate fluctuations simultaneously caused shifts in suitable environmental conditions, limiting populations to refugia, then occurrence on and dispersal across periodic land bridges are not tenable. To assess the degree to which paleoclimate barriers, rather than marine barriers, drove avian diversification in the Philippine Archipelago, we produced ecological niche models for current-day, glacial maxima, and interglacial climate scenarios to infer potential Pleistocene distributions and paleoclimate barriers. We then tested marine and paleoclimate barriers for correspondence to geographic patterns of population divergence, inferred from DNA sequences from eight codistributed bird species. In all species, deep-water channels corresponded to zones of genetic differentiation, but six species exhibited deeper divergence associated with a periodic land bridge in the southern Philippines. Ecological niche models for these species identified a common paleoclimate barrier that coincided with deep genetic structure among populations. Although dry land connections joined southern Philippine islands during low sea level stands, unfavorable environmental conditions limited populations within landmasses, resulting in long-term isolation and genetic differentiation. These results highlight the complex nature of diversification in archipelagos: marine barriers, changes in connectivity due to sea level change, and climate-induced refugia acted in concert to produce great species diversity and endemism in the Philippines.

  14. Range wide molecular data and niche modeling revealed the Pleistocene history of a global invader (Halyomorpha halys).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Geng-Ping; Ye, Zhen; Du, Juan; Zhang, Dan-Li; Zhen, Ya-hui; Zheng, Chen-guang; Zhao, Li; Li, Min; Bu, Wen-Jun

    2016-01-01

    Invasive species' Pleistocene history contains much information on its present population structure, dispersability and adaptability. In this study, the Pleistocene history of a global invasive pest (Brown Marmorated Stink Bug BMSB, Halyomorpha halys) was unveiled using the coupled approach of phylogeography and ecological niche modelling. Rangewide molecular data suggests that the Taiwan and other native populations had diverged in mid-Pleistocene. In mainland China, the native BMSB did not experience population contraction and divergence during last glacial, but persisted in interconnected populations. Combined Bayesian Skyline Plot (BSP) and niche modelling revealed a rapid expansion occurred during the transition of Last Inter Glacial (LIG) to Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). High genetic diversity and multi-reticular haplotypes network exist in the original sources populations of BMSB invasion in northern China. They were speculated to be colonized from the central China, with many derived haplotypes evolved to adapt the novel environment. The ENM future prediction suggest that BMSB may expand northward to higher latitudes in the US and Europe, because of its high invasive ability, together with the available suitable climate space there. PMID:26996353

  15. Range wide molecular data and niche modeling revealed the Pleistocene history of a global invader (Halyomorpha halys)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Geng-Ping; Ye, Zhen; Du, Juan; Zhang, Dan-Li; Zhen, Ya-hui; Zheng, Chen-guang; Zhao, Li; Li, Min; Bu, Wen-Jun

    2016-01-01

    Invasive species’ Pleistocene history contains much information on its present population structure, dispersability and adaptability. In this study, the Pleistocene history of a global invasive pest (Brown Marmorated Stink Bug BMSB, Halyomorpha halys) was unveiled using the coupled approach of phylogeography and ecological niche modelling. Rangewide molecular data suggests that the Taiwan and other native populations had diverged in mid-Pleistocene. In mainland China, the native BMSB did not experience population contraction and divergence during last glacial, but persisted in interconnected populations. Combined Bayesian Skyline Plot (BSP) and niche modelling revealed a rapid expansion occurred during the transition of Last Inter Glacial (LIG) to Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). High genetic diversity and multi-reticular haplotypes network exist in the original sources populations of BMSB invasion in northern China. They were speculated to be colonized from the central China, with many derived haplotypes evolved to adapt the novel environment. The ENM future prediction suggest that BMSB may expand northward to higher latitudes in the US and Europe, because of its high invasive ability, together with the available suitable climate space there. PMID:26996353

  16. Chick embryo xenograft model reveals a novel perineural niche for human adipose-derived stromal cells

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ingrid R. Cordeiro

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Human adipose-derived stromal cells (hADSC are a heterogeneous cell population that contains adult multipotent stem cells. Although it is well established that hADSC have skeletal potential in vivo in adult organisms, in vitro assays suggest further differentiation capacity, such as into glia. Thus, we propose that grafting hADSC into the embryo can provide them with a much more instructive microenvironment, allowing the human cells to adopt diverse fates or niches. Here, hADSC spheroids were grafted into either the presumptive presomitic mesoderm or the first branchial arch (BA1 regions of chick embryos. Cells were identified without previous manipulations via human-specific Alu probes, which allows efficient long-term tracing of heterogeneous primary cultures. When grafted into the trunk, in contrast to previous studies, hADSC were not found in chondrogenic or osteogenic territories up to E8. Surprisingly, 82.5% of the hADSC were associated with HNK1+ tissues, such as peripheral nerves. Human skin fibroblasts showed a smaller tropism for nerves. In line with other studies, hADSC also adopted perivascular locations. When grafted into the presumptive BA1, 74.6% of the cells were in the outflow tract, the final goal of cardiac neural crest cells, and were also associated with peripheral nerves. This is the first study showing that hADSC could adopt a perineural niche in vivo and were able to recognize cues for neural crest cell migration of the host. Therefore, we propose that xenografts of human cells into chick embryos can reveal novel behaviors of heterogeneous cell populations, such as response to migration cues.

  17. Niche evolution and adaptive radiation: Testing the order of trait divergence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ackerly, D.D.; Schwilk, D.W.; Webb, C.O.

    2006-01-01

    In the course of an adaptive radiation, the evolution of niche parameters is of particular interest for understanding modes of speciation and the consequences for coexistence of related species within communities. We pose a general question: In the course of an evolutionary radiation, do traits related to within-community niche differences (?? niche) evolve before or after differentiation of macrohabitat affinity or climatic tolerances (?? niche)? Here we introduce a new test to address this question, based on a modification of the method of independent contrasts. The divergence order test (DOT) is based on the average age of the nodes on a tree, weighted by the absolute magnitude of the contrast at each node for a particular trait. The comparison of these weighted averages reveals whether large divergences for one trait have occurred earlier or later in the course of diversification, relative to a second trait; significance is determined by bootstrapping from maximum-likelihood ancestral state reconstructions. The method is applied to the evolution of Ceanothus, a woody plant group in California, in which co-occurring species exhibit significant differences in a key leaf trait (specific leaf area) associated with contrasting physiological and life history strategies. Co-occurring species differ more for this trait than expected under a null model of community assembly. This ?? niche difference evolved early in the divergence of two major subclades within Ceanothus, whereas climatic distributions (?? niche traits) diversified later within each of the subclades. However, rapid evolution of climate parameters makes inferences of early divergence events highly uncertain, and differentiation of the ?? niche might have taken place throughout the evolution of the group, without leaving a clear phylogenetic signal. Similar patterns observed in several plant and animal groups suggest that early divergence of ?? niche traits might be a common feature of niche evolution in

  18. From California dreaming to California data: Challenging historic models for landfill CH4 emissions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kurt Spokas

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Improved quantification of diverse CH4 sources at the urban scale is needed to guide local GHG mitigation strategies in the Anthropocene. Herein, we focus on landfill CH4 emissions in California, challenging the current IPCC methodology which focuses on a climate dependency for landfill CH4 generation (methanogenesis, but does not explicitly consider climate or soil dependencies for emissions. Relying on a comprehensive California landfill database, a field-validated process-based model for landfill CH4 emissions (CALMIM, and select field measurements at 10 California sites with a variety of methods, we support the contrary position: Limited climate dependency for methanogenesis, but strong climate dependency for landfill CH4 emissions. Contrary to the historic IPCC empirical model for methanogenesis with kinetic constants related to climate, we demonstrate a simpler and more robust linear empirical relationship (r2 = 0.85; n=128 between waste mass and landfill biogas recovery [126 × 10-6 Nm3 CH4 hr-1 Mgwaste-1]. More interestingly, there are no statistically significant relationships with climate, site age, or status (open/closed for landfill biogas recovery. The current IPCC methodology does not consider soil or climate drivers for gaseous transport or seasonal methanotrophy in different cover soils. On the other hand, we illustrate strong climate and soil dependencies for landfill emissions—e.g., average intermediate cover emissions below 20 g CH4 m-2 d-1 when the site’s mean annual precipitation is >500 mm y-1. Thereby, for the California landfill CH4 inventory, the highest-emitting sites shift from landfills containing the largest mass of waste to sites dominated by intermediate cover types having a reduced rate of soil CH4 oxidation during the annual cycle. These differences have profound implications for developing more realistic, science-based urban and regional scale GHG inventories for landfill CH4 while reducing

  19. Evolution of climate niches in European mammals?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dormann, Carsten F; Gruber, Bernd; Winter, Marten; Herrmann, Dirk

    2010-04-23

    Our ability to predict consequences of climate change is severely impaired by the lack of knowledge on the ability of species to adapt to changing environmental conditions. We used distribution data for 140 mammal species in Europe, together with data on climate, land cover and topography, to derive a statistical description of their realized climate niche. We then compared climate niche overlap of pairs of species, selected on the basis of phylogenetic information. In contrast to expectations, related species were not similar in their climate niche. Rather, even species pairs that had a common ancestor less than 1 Ma already display very high climate niche distances. We interpret our finding as a strong interspecific competitive constraint on the realized niche, rather than a rapid evolution of the fundamental niche. If correct, our results imply a very limited usefulness of climate niche models for the prediction of future mammal distributions. PMID:19828492

  20. The Multidimensional Nutritional Niche.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Machovsky-Capuska, Gabriel E; Senior, Alistair M; Simpson, Stephen J; Raubenheimer, David

    2016-05-01

    The dietary generalist-specialist distinction plays a pivotal role in theoretical and applied ecology, conservation, invasion biology, and evolution and yet the concept remains poorly characterised. Diets, which are commonly used to define niche breadth, are almost exclusively considered in terms of foods, with little regard for the mixtures of nutrients and other compounds they contain. We use nutritional geometry (NG) to integrate nutrition with food-level approaches to the dietary niche and illustrate the application of our framework in the important context of invasion biology. We use an example that involves a model with four hypothetical nonexclusive scenarios. We additionally show how this approach can provide fresh theoretical insight into the ways nutrition and food choices impact trait evolution and trophic interactions.

  1. Comparative analysis of remotely-sensed data products via ecological niche modeling of avian influenza case occurrences in Middle Eastern poultry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiao Xiangming

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Ecological niche modeling integrates known sites of occurrence of species or phenomena with data on environmental variation across landscapes to infer environmental spaces potentially inhabited (i.e., the ecological niche to generate predictive maps of potential distributions in geographic space. Key inputs to this process include raster data layers characterizing spatial variation in environmental parameters, such as vegetation indices from remotely sensed satellite imagery. The extent to which ecological niche models reflect real-world distributions depends on a number of factors, but an obvious concern is the quality and content of the environmental data layers. Methods We assessed ecological niche model predictions of H5N1 avian flu presence quantitatively within and among four geographic regions, based on models incorporating two means of summarizing three vegetation indices derived from the MODIS satellite. We evaluated our models for predictive ability using partial ROC analysis and GLM ANOVA to compare performance among indices and regions. Results We found correlations between vegetation indices to be high, such that they contain information that overlaps broadly. Neither the type of vegetation index used nor method of summary affected model performance significantly. However, the degree to which model predictions had to be transferred (i.e., projected onto landscapes and conditions not represented on the landscape of training impacted predictive strength greatly (within-region model predictions far out-performed models projected among regions. Conclusion Our results provide the first quantitative tests of most appropriate uses of different remotely sensed data sets in ecological niche modeling applications. While our testing did not result in a decisive "best" index product or means of summarizing indices, it emphasizes the need for careful evaluation of products used in modeling (e.g. matching temporal dimensions

  2. Claims of potential expansion throughout the U.S. by invasive python species are contradicted by ecological niche models.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R Alexander Pyron

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Recent reports from the United States Geological Survey (USGS suggested that invasive Burmese pythons in the Everglades may quickly spread into many parts of the U.S. due to putative climatic suitability. Additionally, projected trends of global warming were predicted to significantly increase suitable habitat and promote range expansion by these snakes. However, the ecological limitations of the Burmese python are not known and the possible effects of global warming on the potential expansion of the species are also unclear. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Here we show that a predicted continental expansion is unlikely based on the ecology of the organism and the climate of the U.S. Our ecological niche models, which include variables representing climatic extremes as well as averages, indicate that the only suitable habitat in the U.S. for Burmese pythons presently occurs in southern Florida and in extreme southern Texas. Models based on the current distribution of the snake predict suitable habitat in essentially the only region in which the snakes are found in the U.S. Future climate models based on global warming forecasts actually indicate a significant contraction in suitable habitat for Burmese pythons in the U.S. as well as in their native range. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The Burmese python is strongly limited to the small area of suitable environmental conditions in the United States it currently inhabits due to the ecological niche preferences of the snake. The ability of the Burmese python to expand further into the U.S. is severely limited by ecological constraints. Global warming is predicted to significantly reduce the area of suitable habitat worldwide, underscoring the potential negative effects of climate change for many species.

  3. Evaluating the potential of ecological niche modelling as a component in marine non-indigenous species risk assessments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leidenberger, Sonja; Obst, Matthias; Kulawik, Robert; Stelzer, Kerstin; Heyer, Karin; Hardisty, Alex; Bourlat, Sarah J

    2015-08-15

    Marine biological invasions have increased with the development of global trading, causing the homogenization of communities and the decline of biodiversity. A main vector is ballast water exchange from shipping. This study evaluates the use of ecological niche modelling (ENM) to predict the spread of 18 non-indigenous species (NIS) along shipping routes and their potential habitat suitability (hot/cold spots) in the Baltic Sea and Northeast Atlantic. Results show that, contrary to current risk assessment methods, temperature and sea ice concentration determine habitat suitability for 61% of species, rather than salinity (11%). We show high habitat suitability for NIS in the Skagerrak and Kattegat, a transitional area for NIS entering or leaving the Baltic Sea. As many cases of NIS introduction in the marine environment are associated with shipping pathways, we explore how ENM can be used to provide valuable information on the potential spread of NIS for ballast water risk assessment. PMID:26066862

  4. Using niche-based modelling to assess the impact of climate change on tree functional diversity in Europe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thuiller, Wilfried; Lavorel, Sandra; Sykes, Martin T.;

    2006-01-01

    of 122 tree species from different functional types (FT). We then explored projections of future distributions under one climate scenario for 2080, considering two alternative dispersal assumptions: no dispersal and unlimited dispersal. The species-rich broadleaved deciduous group appeared to play a key......Rapid anthropogenic climate change is already affecting species distributions and ecosystem functioning worldwide. We applied niche-based models to analyse the impact of climate change on tree species and functional diversity in Europe. Present-day climate was used to predict the distributions...... role in the future of different European regions. Temperate areas were projected to lose both species richness and functional diversity due to the loss of broadleaved deciduous trees. These were projected to migrate to boreal forests, thereby increasing their species richness and functional diversity...

  5. Climatic suitability of Aedes albopictus in Europe referring to climate change projections: comparison of mechanistic and correlative niche modelling approaches.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fischer, D; Thomas, S M; Neteler, M; Tjaden, N B; Beierkuhnlein, C

    2014-02-13

    The Asian tiger mosquito, Aedes albopictus, is capable of transmitting a broad range of viruses to humans. Since its introduction at the end of the 20th century, it has become well established in large parts of southern Europe. As future expansion as a result of climate change can be expected, determining the current and projected future climatic suitability of this invasive mosquito in Europe is of interest. Several studies have tried to detect the potential habitats for this species, but differing data sources and modelling approaches must be considered when interpreting the findings. Here, various modelling methodologies are compared with special emphasis on model set-up and study design. Basic approaches and model algorithms for the projection of spatio-temporal trends within the 21st century differ substantially. Applied methods range from mechanistic models (e.g. overlay of climatic constraints based on geographic information systems or rather process-based approaches) to correlative niche models. We conclude that spatial characteristics such as introduction gateways and dispersal pathways need to be considered. Laboratory experiments addressing the climatic constraints of the mosquito are required for improved modelling results. However, the main source of uncertainty remains the insufficient knowledge about the species' ability to adapt to novel environments.

  6. Climatic suitability of Aedes albopictus in Europe referring to climate change projections: comparison of mechanistic and correlative niche modelling approaches.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fischer, D; Thomas, S M; Neteler, M; Tjaden, N B; Beierkuhnlein, C

    2014-01-01

    The Asian tiger mosquito, Aedes albopictus, is capable of transmitting a broad range of viruses to humans. Since its introduction at the end of the 20th century, it has become well established in large parts of southern Europe. As future expansion as a result of climate change can be expected, determining the current and projected future climatic suitability of this invasive mosquito in Europe is of interest. Several studies have tried to detect the potential habitats for this species, but differing data sources and modelling approaches must be considered when interpreting the findings. Here, various modelling methodologies are compared with special emphasis on model set-up and study design. Basic approaches and model algorithms for the projection of spatio-temporal trends within the 21st century differ substantially. Applied methods range from mechanistic models (e.g. overlay of climatic constraints based on geographic information systems or rather process-based approaches) to correlative niche models. We conclude that spatial characteristics such as introduction gateways and dispersal pathways need to be considered. Laboratory experiments addressing the climatic constraints of the mosquito are required for improved modelling results. However, the main source of uncertainty remains the insufficient knowledge about the species' ability to adapt to novel environments. PMID:24556349

  7. PREDICTIONS IN AN INVADED WORLD - PART I: USING NICHE MODELS TO PREDICT DISTRIBUTIONS OF MARINE/ESTUARINE SPECIES AT THE HABITAT SCALE

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niche models can be used to predict the distributions of marine/estuarine nonindigenous species (NIS) over three spatial scales. The goal at the biogeographic scale is to predict whether a species is likely to invade a geographic region. At the regional scale, the goal is to pr...

  8. Species delimitation in the continental forms of the genus Epicrates (Serpentes, Boidae integrating phylogenetics and environmental niche models.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paula C Rivera

    Full Text Available Until recently, the genus Epicrates (Boidae presented only one continental species, Epicrates cenchria, distributed in Central and South America, but after a taxonomic revision using morphologic characters five species were recognized: E. cenchria, E. crassus, E. maurus, E. assisi, and E. alvarezi. We analyzed two independent data sets, environmental niche models and phylogeny based on molecular information, to explore species delimitation in the continental species of this genus. Our results indicated that the environmental requirements of the species are different; therefore there are not evidences of ecological interchangeability among them. There is a clear correlation between species distributions and the major biogeographic regions of Central and South America. Their overall distribution reveals that allopatry or parapatry is the general pattern. These evidences suggest that habitat isolation prevents or limits gene exchange among them. The phylogenetic reconstruction showed that the continental Epicrates are monophyletic, being E. alvarezi the sister species for the remaining two clades: E. crassus-E. assisi, and E. maurus-E. cenchria. The clade grouping the continental Epicrates is the sister taxon of the genus Eunectes and not of the Caribbean Epicrates clade, indicating that the genus is paraphyletic. There is a non-consistent pattern in niche evolution among continental Epicrates. On the contrary, a high variation and abrupt shifts in environmental variables are shown when ancestral character states were reconstructed on the sequence-based tree. The degree of genetic and ecological divergence among continental Epicrates and the phylogenetic analyses support the elevation to full species of E. cenchria, E. crassus, E. maurus, E. assisi, and E. alvarezi.

  9. Helium preconditioning protects the brain against hypoxia/ischemia injury via improving the neurovascular niche in a neonatal rat model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yi; Zhang, Peixi; Liu, Ying; Liu, Wenwu; Yin, Na

    2016-11-01

    This study aimed to investigate whether helium preconditioning (He-PC) is able to exert neuroprotective effects via improving focal neurovascular niche in a neonatal rat hypoxia/ischemia (HI) brain injury model. Seven day old rat pups were divided into control group, HI group and He-PC group. HI was induced by exposure to 8% oxygen for 90min one day after preconditioning with 70% helium-30% oxygen for three 5-min periods. At 3 and 7 days, the brain was collected for the detection of inflammation related factors (tumor necrosis factor α [TNF-α], interleukin-1β [IL-1β], IL-10) and growth/neurotrophic factors (brain-derived neurotrophic factor [BDNF], basic fibroblast growth factor [bFGF] and nerve growth factor [NGF]); at 7 days, neurobehaviors were evaluated, and the brain was collected for the detection of mRNA expression of vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) and angiopoietin-1 (Ang-1) by PCR, protein expression of angiogenesis related molecules (VEGF, Ang-1, Tie-2 and Flt-1) by Western blotting and microvessel density (MCD) by immunohistochemistry for vWF. Results showed He-PC was able to reduce TNF-α and IL-1β, further increase IL-10, BDNF, bFGF and NGF, elevate the mRNA expression of VEGF and Ang-1, increase the protein expression of VEGF, Ang-1, Tie-2 and Flt-1, promote angiogenesis and improve neurobehaviors as compared to HI group. These findings suggest that He-PC may improve the post-stroke neurovascular niche to exert neuroprotective effects on neonatal HI brain injury. PMID:27515290

  10. Single-cell and coupled GRN models of cell patterning in the Arabidopsis thaliana root stem cell niche

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alvarez-Buylla Elena R

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Recent experimental work has uncovered some of the genetic components required to maintain the Arabidopsis thaliana root stem cell niche (SCN and its structure. Two main pathways are involved. One pathway depends on the genes SHORTROOT and SCARECROW and the other depends on the PLETHORA genes, which have been proposed to constitute the auxin readouts. Recent evidence suggests that a regulatory circuit, composed of WOX5 and CLE40, also contributes to the SCN maintenance. Yet, we still do not understand how the niche is dynamically maintained and patterned or if the uncovered molecular components are sufficient to recover the observed gene expression configurations that characterize the cell types within the root SCN. Mathematical and computational tools have proven useful in understanding the dynamics of cell differentiation. Hence, to further explore root SCN patterning, we integrated available experimental data into dynamic Gene Regulatory Network (GRN models and addressed if these are sufficient to attain observed gene expression configurations in the root SCN in a robust and autonomous manner. Results We found that an SCN GRN model based only on experimental data did not reproduce the configurations observed within the root SCN. We developed several alternative GRN models that recover these expected stable gene configurations. Such models incorporate a few additional components and interactions in addition to those that have been uncovered. The recovered configurations are stable to perturbations, and the models are able to recover the observed gene expression profiles of almost all the mutants described so far. However, the robustness of the postulated GRNs is not as high as that of other previously studied networks. Conclusions These models are the first published approximations for a dynamic mechanism of the A. thaliana root SCN cellular pattering. Our model is useful to formally show that the data now available are not

  11. Spatial distributions of niche-constructing populations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaozhuo Han

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Niche construction theory regards organisms not only as the object of natural selection but also an active subject that can change their own selective pressure through eco-evolutionary feedbacks. Through reviewing the existing works on the theoretical models of niche construction, here we present the progress made on how niche construction influences genetic structure of spatially structured populations and the spatial-temporal dynamics of metapopulations, with special focuses on mathematical models and simulation methods. The majority of results confirmed that niche construction can significantly alter the evolutionary trajectories of structured populations. Organism-environmental interactions induced by niche construction can have profound influence on the dynamics, competition and diversity of metapopulations. It can affect fine-scale spatially distribution of species and spatial heterogeneity of the environment. We further propose a few research directions with potentials, such as applying adaptive dynamics or spatial game theory to explore the effect of niche construction on phenotypic evolution and diversification.

  12. Eureka, California Coastal Digital Elevation Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — NOAA's National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) is building high-resolution digital elevation models (DEMs) for select U.S. coastal regions. These integrated...

  13. Central California Coastal Digital Elevation Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — NOAA's National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) is building high-resolution digital elevation models (DEMs) for select U.S. coastal regions. These integrated...

  14. Fort Bragg, California Coastal Digital Elevation Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — NOAA's National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) is building high-resolution digital elevation models (DEMs) for select U.S. coastal regions. These integrated...

  15. Arena Cove, California Coastal Digital Elevation Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — NOAA's National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) is building high-resolution digital elevation models (DEMs) for select U.S. coastal regions. These integrated...

  16. Santa Monica, California Coastal Digital Elevation Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — NOAA's National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) is building high-resolution digital elevation models (DEMs) for select U.S. coastal regions. These integrated...

  17. Santa Barbara, California Coastal Digital Elevation Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — NOAA's National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) is building high-resolution digital elevation models (DEMs) for select U.S. coastal regions. These integrated...

  18. Crescent City, California Coastal Digital Elevation Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — NOAA's National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) is building high-resolution digital elevation models (DEMs) for select U.S. coastal regions. These integrated...

  19. San Diego, California Coastal Digital Elevation Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — NOAA's National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) is building high-resolution digital elevation models (DEMs) for select U.S. coastal regions. These integrated...

  20. Monterey, California Coastal Digital Elevation Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — NOAA's National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) is building high-resolution digital elevation models (DEMs) for select U.S. coastal regions. These integrated...

  1. Life History Traits and Niche Instability Impact Accuracy and Temporal Transferability for Historically Calibrated Distribution Models of North American Birds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wogan, Guinevere O U

    2016-01-01

    A primary assumption of environmental niche models (ENMs) is that models are both accurate and transferable across geography or time; however, recent work has shown that models may be accurate but not highly transferable. While some of this is due to modeling technique, individual species ecologies may also underlie this phenomenon. Life history traits certainly influence the accuracy of predictive ENMs, but their impact on model transferability is less understood. This study investigated how life history traits influence the predictive accuracy and transferability of ENMs using historically calibrated models for birds. In this study I used historical occurrence and climate data (1950-1990s) to build models for a sample of birds, and then projected them forward to the 'future' (1960-1990s). The models were then validated against models generated from occurrence data at that 'future' time. Internal and external validation metrics, as well as metrics assessing transferability, and Generalized Linear Models were used to identify life history traits that were significant predictors of accuracy and transferability. This study found that the predictive ability of ENMs differs with regard to life history characteristics such as range, migration, and habitat, and that the rarity versus commonness of a species affects the predicted stability and overlap and hence the transferability of projected models. Projected ENMs with both high accuracy and transferability scores, still sometimes suffered from over- or under- predicted species ranges. Life history traits certainly influenced the accuracy of predictive ENMs for birds, but while aspects of geographic range impact model transferability, the mechanisms underlying this are less understood. PMID:26959979

  2. Life History Traits and Niche Instability Impact Accuracy and Temporal Transferability for Historically Calibrated Distribution Models of North American Birds.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guinevere O U Wogan

    Full Text Available A primary assumption of environmental niche models (ENMs is that models are both accurate and transferable across geography or time; however, recent work has shown that models may be accurate but not highly transferable. While some of this is due to modeling technique, individual species ecologies may also underlie this phenomenon. Life history traits certainly influence the accuracy of predictive ENMs, but their impact on model transferability is less understood. This study investigated how life history traits influence the predictive accuracy and transferability of ENMs using historically calibrated models for birds. In this study I used historical occurrence and climate data (1950-1990s to build models for a sample of birds, and then projected them forward to the 'future' (1960-1990s. The models were then validated against models generated from occurrence data at that 'future' time. Internal and external validation metrics, as well as metrics assessing transferability, and Generalized Linear Models were used to identify life history traits that were significant predictors of accuracy and transferability. This study found that the predictive ability of ENMs differs with regard to life history characteristics such as range, migration, and habitat, and that the rarity versus commonness of a species affects the predicted stability and overlap and hence the transferability of projected models. Projected ENMs with both high accuracy and transferability scores, still sometimes suffered from over- or under- predicted species ranges. Life history traits certainly influenced the accuracy of predictive ENMs for birds, but while aspects of geographic range impact model transferability, the mechanisms underlying this are less understood.

  3. Evolution of niche width and adaptive diversification.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ackermann, Martin; Doebeli, Michael

    2004-12-01

    Theoretical models suggest that resource competition can lead to the adaptive splitting of consumer populations into diverging lineages, that is, to adaptive diversification. In general, diversification is likely if consumers use only a narrow range of resources and thus have a small niche width. Here we use analytical and numerical methods to study the consequences for diversification if the niche width itself evolves. We found that the evolutionary outcome depends on the inherent costs or benefits of widening the niche. If widening the niche did not have costs in terms of overall resource uptake, then the consumer evolved a niche that was wide enough for disruptive selection on the niche position to vanish; adaptive diversification was no longer observed. However, if widening the niche was costly, then the niche widths remained relatively narrow, allowing for adaptive diversification in niche position. Adaptive diversification and speciation resulting from competition for a broadly distributed resource is thus likely if the niche width is fixed and relatively narrow or free to evolve but subject to costs. These results refine the conditions for adaptive diversification due to competition and formulate them in a way that might be more amenable for experimental investigations. PMID:15696740

  4. A co-culture model of the hippocampal neurogenic niche reveals differential effects of astrocytes, endothelial cells and pericytes on proliferation and differentiation of adult murine precursor cells

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fanny Ehret

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available The niche concept of stem cell biology proposes a functional unit between the precursor cells and their local microenvironment, to which several cell types might contribute by cell–cell contacts, extracellular matrix, and humoral factors. We here established three co-culture models (with cell types separated by membrane for both adherent monolayers and neurospheres to address the potential influence of different niche cell types in the neurogenic zone of the adult hippocampus of mice. Astrocytes and endothelial cells enhanced precursor cell proliferation and neurosphere formation. Endothelial factors also led to a prolonged increase in proliferation after growth factor withdrawal, which otherwise induces differentiation. All niche cell types enhanced cell survival in monolayer cultures, endothelial cells also stimulated neuronal differentiation. A parallel trend elicited by astrocytes did not reach conventional statistical significance. Pericytes had variable effects here. We did not observe changes in differentiation in neurosphere co-cultures. In summary, our data indicate that in precursor cell culture protocols survival could be improved by adding as yet unknown factors physiologically contributed by astrocytes and endothelial cells. Our findings also underscore the complexity of the niche and the differential impact of factors from the different sources on distinct aspects of neuronal development. With the help of the models presented here, identification of these factors and their specific biological activity can now be initiated.

  5. Model outputs - Developing end-to-end models of the Gulf of California

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The purpose of this project is to develop spatially discrete end-to-end models of the northern Gulf of California, linking oceanography, biogeochemistry, food web...

  6. Atlantis model outputs - Developing end-to-end models of the California Current Large Marine Ecosystem

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The purpose of this project is to develop spatially discrete end-to-end models of the California Current LME, linking oceanography, biogeochemistry, food web...

  7. Which Factors Determine Spatial Segregation in the South American Opossums (Didelphis aurita and D. albiventris)? An Ecological Niche Modelling and Geometric Morphometrics Approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cáceres, Nilton Carlos; de Moraes Weber, Marcelo; Melo, Geruza Leal; Meloro, Carlo; Sponchiado, Jonas; Carvalho, Renan Dos Santos; Bubadué, Jamile de Moura

    2016-01-01

    Didelphis albiventris and D. aurita are Neotropical marsupials that share a unique evolutionary history and both are largely distributed throughout South America, being primarily allopatric throughout their ranges. In the Araucaria moist forest of Southern Brazil these species are sympatric and they might potentially compete having similar ecology. For this reason, they are ideal biological models to address questions about ecological character displacement and how closely related species might share their geographic space. Little is known about how two morphologically similar species of marsupials may affect each other through competition, if by competitive exclusion and competitive release. We combined ecological niche modeling and geometric morphometrics to explore the possible effects of competition on their distributional ranges and skull morphology. Ecological niche modeling was used to predict their potential distribution and this method enabled us to identify a case of biotic exclusion where the habit generalist D. albiventris is excluded by the presence of the specialist D. aurita. The morphometric analyses show that a degree of shape discrimination occurs between the species, strengthened by allometric differences, which possibly allowed them to occupy marginally different feeding niches supplemented by behavioral shift in contact areas. Overlap in skull morphology is shown between sympatric and allopatric specimens and a significant, but weak, shift in shape occurs only in D. aurita in sympatric areas. This could be a residual evidence of a higher past competition between both species, when contact zones were possibly larger than today. Therefore, the specialist D. aurita acts a biotic barrier to D. albiventris when niche diversity is not available for coexistence. On the other hand, when there is niche diversification (e.g. habitat mosaic), both species are capable to coexist with a minimal competitive effect on the morphology of D. aurita. PMID

  8. Which Factors Determine Spatial Segregation in the South American Opossums (Didelphis aurita and D. albiventris? An Ecological Niche Modelling and Geometric Morphometrics Approach.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nilton Carlos Cáceres

    Full Text Available Didelphis albiventris and D. aurita are Neotropical marsupials that share a unique evolutionary history and both are largely distributed throughout South America, being primarily allopatric throughout their ranges. In the Araucaria moist forest of Southern Brazil these species are sympatric and they might potentially compete having similar ecology. For this reason, they are ideal biological models to address questions about ecological character displacement and how closely related species might share their geographic space. Little is known about how two morphologically similar species of marsupials may affect each other through competition, if by competitive exclusion and competitive release. We combined ecological niche modeling and geometric morphometrics to explore the possible effects of competition on their distributional ranges and skull morphology. Ecological niche modeling was used to predict their potential distribution and this method enabled us to identify a case of biotic exclusion where the habit generalist D. albiventris is excluded by the presence of the specialist D. aurita. The morphometric analyses show that a degree of shape discrimination occurs between the species, strengthened by allometric differences, which possibly allowed them to occupy marginally different feeding niches supplemented by behavioral shift in contact areas. Overlap in skull morphology is shown between sympatric and allopatric specimens and a significant, but weak, shift in shape occurs only in D. aurita in sympatric areas. This could be a residual evidence of a higher past competition between both species, when contact zones were possibly larger than today. Therefore, the specialist D. aurita acts a biotic barrier to D. albiventris when niche diversity is not available for coexistence. On the other hand, when there is niche diversification (e.g. habitat mosaic, both species are capable to coexist with a minimal competitive effect on the morphology of D

  9. Which Factors Determine Spatial Segregation in the South American Opossums (Didelphis aurita and D. albiventris)? An Ecological Niche Modelling and Geometric Morphometrics Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cáceres, Nilton Carlos; de Moraes Weber, Marcelo; Melo, Geruza Leal; Meloro, Carlo; Sponchiado, Jonas; Carvalho, Renan dos Santos; Bubadué, Jamile de Moura

    2016-01-01

    Didelphis albiventris and D. aurita are Neotropical marsupials that share a unique evolutionary history and both are largely distributed throughout South America, being primarily allopatric throughout their ranges. In the Araucaria moist forest of Southern Brazil these species are sympatric and they might potentially compete having similar ecology. For this reason, they are ideal biological models to address questions about ecological character displacement and how closely related species might share their geographic space. Little is known about how two morphologically similar species of marsupials may affect each other through competition, if by competitive exclusion and competitive release. We combined ecological niche modeling and geometric morphometrics to explore the possible effects of competition on their distributional ranges and skull morphology. Ecological niche modeling was used to predict their potential distribution and this method enabled us to identify a case of biotic exclusion where the habit generalist D. albiventris is excluded by the presence of the specialist D. aurita. The morphometric analyses show that a degree of shape discrimination occurs between the species, strengthened by allometric differences, which possibly allowed them to occupy marginally different feeding niches supplemented by behavioral shift in contact areas. Overlap in skull morphology is shown between sympatric and allopatric specimens and a significant, but weak, shift in shape occurs only in D. aurita in sympatric areas. This could be a residual evidence of a higher past competition between both species, when contact zones were possibly larger than today. Therefore, the specialist D. aurita acts a biotic barrier to D. albiventris when niche diversity is not available for coexistence. On the other hand, when there is niche diversification (e.g. habitat mosaic), both species are capable to coexist with a minimal competitive effect on the morphology of D. aurita. PMID

  10. Evaluating transport in the WRF model along the California coast

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Yver

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a step in the development of a top-down method to complement the bottom-up inventories of halocarbon emissions in California using high frequency observations, forward simulations and inverse methods. The Scripps Institution of Oceanography high-frequency atmospheric halocarbon measurement sites are located along the California coast and therefore the evaluation of transport in the chosen Weather Research Forecast (WRF model at these sites is crucial for inverse modeling. The performance of the transport model has been investigated by comparing the wind direction and speed at four locations along the coast using aircraft weather reports. Different planetary boundary layer (PBL schemes, nesting options and two meteorological datasets have been tested. Finally, simulated concentration of an inert tracer has been briefly investigated. All the PBL schemes present similar results that generally agree with observations, except in summer when the model sea breeze is too strong. At the coarse 12 km resolution, using ERA-interim (ECMWF Re-Analysis as initial and boundary conditions leads to improvements compared to using the North American Model (NAM dataset. Adding higher resolution nests also improves the match with the observations. However, no further improvement is observed from increasing the nest resolution from 4 km to 0.8 km. Once optimized, the model is able to reproduce tracer measurements during typical winter California large-scale events (Santa Ana. Furthermore, with the WRF/CHEM chemistry module and the European Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR version 4.1 emissions for HFC-134a, we find that using a simple emission scaling factor is not sufficient to infer emissions, which highlights the need for more complex inversions.

  11. Microcavity arrays as an in vitro model system of the bone marrow niche for hematopoietic stem cells.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wuchter, Patrick; Saffrich, Rainer; Giselbrecht, Stefan; Nies, Cordula; Lorig, Hanna; Kolb, Stephanie; Ho, Anthony D; Gottwald, Eric

    2016-06-01

    In previous studies human mesenchymal stromal cells (MSCs) maintained the "stemness" of human hematopoietic progenitor cells (HPCs) through direct cell-cell contact in two-dimensional co-culture systems. We establish a three-dimensional (3D) co-culture system based on a custom-made chip, the 3(D)-KITChip, as an in vitro model system of the human hematopoietic stem cell niche. This array of up to 625 microcavities, with 300 μm size in each orientation, was inserted into a microfluidic bioreactor. The microcavities of the 3(D)-KITChip were inoculated with human bone marrow MSCs together with umbilical cord blood HPCs. MSCs used the microcavities as a scaffold to build a complex 3D mesh. HPCs were distributed three-dimensionally inside this MSC network and formed ß-catenin- and N-cadherin-based intercellular junctions to the surrounding MSCs. Using RT(2)-PCR and western blots, we demonstrate that a proportion of HPCs maintained the expression of CD34 throughout a culture period of 14 days. In colony-forming unit assays, the hematopoietic stem cell plasticity remained similar after 14 days of bioreactor co-culture, whereas monolayer co-cultures showed increasing signs of HPC differentiation and loss of stemness. These data support the notion that the 3D microenvironment created within the microcavity array preserves vital stem cell functions of HPCs more efficiently than conventional co-culture systems. PMID:26829941

  12. Using environmental niche modeling to find suitable habitats for the Hard-ground Barasingha in Madhya Pradesh, India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. P. Singh

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The subspecies of Swamp Deer, the Hard-ground Barasingha (Rucervus duvaucelii branderi Pocock, is presently found only in Kanha Tiger Reserve (KTR in Madhya Pradesh, India. This subspecies is highly vulnerable to extinction, and reintroduction in suitable sites is the need of the hour.  Environmental niche models (GARP, SVM, ED, CSM aimed at providing a detailed prediction of species distribution by relating presence of species to 19 bioclimatic indices were developed, using swamp deer occurrence records in KTR. The predictions were appropriately weighted with the prevailing LU/LC classes to identify suitable habitats in Madhya Pradesh, India. The result shows that the southern region of Madhya Pradesh is suitable for the sustenance of Barasingha with varying degrees of habitability. Vicarious validation shows that most of these forest areas were the same as that of historical records dating back to 50 years. However, land use maps can help identify areas where this subspecies can be reintroduced. 

  13. MixSIAR: A Bayesian stable isotope mixing model for characterizing intrapopulation niche variation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Background/Question/Methods The science of stable isotope mixing models has tended towards the development of modeling products (e.g. IsoSource, MixSIR, SIAR), where methodological advances or syntheses of the current state of the art are published in parity with software packa...

  14. Modeling California policy impacts on greenhouse gas emissions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper examines policy and technology scenarios in California, emphasizing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in 2020 and 2030. Using CALGAPS, a new, validated model simulating GHG and criteria pollutant emissions in California from 2010 to 2050, four scenarios were developed: Committed Policies (S1), Uncommitted Policies (S2), Potential Policy and Technology Futures (S3), and Counterfactual (S0), which omits all GHG policies. Forty-nine individual policies were represented. For S1–S3, GHG emissions fall below the AB 32 policy 2020 target [427 million metric tons CO2 equivalent (MtCO2e) yr−1], indicating that committed policies may be sufficient to meet mandated reductions. In 2030, emissions span 211–428 MtCO2e yr−1, suggesting that policy choices made today can strongly affect outcomes over the next two decades. Long-term (2050) emissions were all well above the target set by Executive Order S-3-05 (85 MtCO2e yr−1); additional policies or technology development (beyond the study scope) are likely needed to achieve this objective. Cumulative emissions suggest a different outcome, however: due to early emissions reductions, S3 achieves lower cumulative emissions in 2050 than a pathway that linearly reduces emissions between 2020 and 2050 policy targets. Sensitivity analysis provided quantification of individual policy GHG emissions reduction benefits. - Highlights: • Developed CALGAPS, a new California greenhouse gas (GHG) policy evaluation model. • Three scenarios (plus counterfactual) developed, modeling 49 state/federal policies. • All scenarios achieve 2020 target; GHG emissions through 2030 span a factor of two. • No scenario achieves 2050 target, but cumulative emissions can be very low. • GHG impact of each policy (plus combinations) quantified in sensitivity analysis

  15. Assessing niche width of endothermic fish from genes to ecosystem.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Madigan, Daniel J; Carlisle, Aaron B; Gardner, Luke D; Jayasundara, Nishad; Micheli, Fiorenza; Schaefer, Kurt M; Fuller, Daniel W; Block, Barbara A

    2015-07-01

    Endothermy in vertebrates has been postulated to confer physiological and ecological advantages. In endothermic fish, niche expansion into cooler waters is correlated with specific physiological traits and is hypothesized to lead to greater foraging success and increased fitness. Using the seasonal co-occurrence of three tuna species in the eastern Pacific Ocean as a model system, we used cardiac gene expression data (as a proxy for thermal tolerance to low temperatures), archival tag data, and diet analyses to examine the vertical niche expansion hypothesis for endothermy in situ. Yellowfin, albacore, and Pacific bluefin tuna (PBFT) in the California Current system used more surface, mesopelagic, and deep waters, respectively. Expression of cardiac genes for calcium cycling increased in PBFT and coincided with broader vertical and thermal niche utilization. However, the PBFT diet was less diverse and focused on energy-rich forage fishes but did not show the greatest energy gains. Ecosystem-based management strategies for tunas should thus consider species-specific differences in physiology and foraging specialization. PMID:26100889

  16. Genetic differentiation in two widespread, open-forest bird species of Southeast Asia (Copsychus saularis andMegalaima haemacephala):Insights from ecological niche modeling

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Haw Chuan LIM; Fasheng ZOU; Frederick H SHELDON

    2015-01-01

    Ecological niche modeling has emerged as an useful tool in the investigation of the phylogeographic histories of spe-cies or communities in a region. The high biodiversity (oftentimes cryptic), and complex geography and geological history of Southeast Asia particularly call for multipronged approaches in phylogeographic investigations. Past studies have focused on taxa that are associated with lowland rainforests, which is the dominant natural vegetation type. Here, we combine published phylo-genetic data, ecological niche modeling and paleo-climate models to reveal potential drivers of divergence in two open-forest bird species, the oriental magpie-robinCopsychus saularis and Coppersmith barbetMegalaima haemacephala. In spite of broad overlap in current distributions, there are subtle differences in their climatic niches, which result in different responses to past climatic changes. ForC. saularis, both Last Glacial Maximum climate models indicated that the entire Sundaland was climati-cally suitable, while phylogenetic analyses found divergent eastern and western Sundaland lineages. We thus postulate that this genetic divergence was a result of past separations of coastal habitats into eastern and western portions due to the emergence of Sunda shelf as sea-level fell. The current separation of morphological subspecies in Borneo is maintained by low climatic suita-bility (high annual rainfall) in certain regions. The extirpation ofM. haemacephala from Borneo and southern Malay Peninsula might have been driven by unsuitable conditions (high temperature seasonality) in central Sundaland and/or the lack of open woodlands. Our study shows that ecological niche modeling adds a powerful dimension to our attempt to understand lineage evolution in space [Current Zoology 61 (5): 922–934, 2015].

  17. Ecological niche model of Phlebotomus perniciosus, the main vector of canine leishmaniasis in north-eastern Italy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Signorini, Manuela; Cassini, Rudi; Drigo, Michele; Frangipane di Regalbono, Antonio; Pietrobelli, Mario; Montarsi, Fabrizio; Stensgaard, Anna-Sofie

    2014-11-01

    With respect to the epidemiology of leishmaniasis, it is crucial to take into account the ecoclimatic and environmental characteristics that influence the distribution patterns of the vector sand fly species. It is also important to consider the possible impact of on-going climate changes on the emergence of this disease. In order to map the potential distribution of Phlebotomus perniciosus, the main vector species of canine leishmaniasis in north-eastern Italy, geographical information systems tools, ecological niche models (ENM) and remotely sensed environmental data were applied for a retrospective analysis of an entomological survey conducted in north-eastern Italy over 12 years. Sand fly trapping was conducted from 2001 to 2012 in 175 sites in the provinces of Veneto, Friuli-Venezia Giulia and Trentino-Alto Adige. We developed a predictive model of potential distribution of P. perniciosus using the maximum entropy algorithm software, based on seasonal normalized difference vegetation index, day and night land surface temperature, the Corine land cover 2006, a digital elevation model (GTOPO30) and climate layers obtained from the WorldClim database. The MaxEnt prediction found the more suitable habitat for P. perniciosus to be hilly areas (100-300 m above the mean sea level) characterised by temperate climate during the winter and summer seasons, high winter vegetation cover and moderate rainfall during the activity season of vector sand fly. ENM provided a greater understanding of the geographical distribution and ecological requirements of P. perniciosus in the study area, which can be applied for the development of future surveillance strategies. PMID:25545936

  18. Ecological niche model of Phlebotomus perniciosus, the main vector of canine leishmaniasis in north-eastern Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manuela Signorini

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available With respect to the epidemiology of leishmaniasis, it is crucial to take into account the ecoclimatic and environ- mental characteristics that influence the distribution patterns of the vector sand fly species. It is also important to consider the possible impact of on-going climate changes on the emergence of this disease. In order to map the potential distribu- tion of Phlebotomus perniciosus, the main vector species of canine leishmaniasis in north-eastern Italy, geographical information systems tools, ecological niche models (ENM and remotely sensed environmental data were applied for a retrospective analysis of an entomological survey conducted in north-eastern Italy over 12 years. Sand fly trapping was conducted from 2001 to 2012 in 175 sites in the provinces of Veneto, Friuli-Venezia Giulia and Trentino-Alto Adige. We developed a predictive model of potential distribution of P. perniciosus using the maximum entropy algorithm software, based on seasonal normalized difference vegetation index, day and night land surface temperature, the Corine land cover 2006, a digital elevation model (GTOPO30 and climate layers obtained from the WorldClim database. The MaxEnt pre- diction found the more suitable habitat for P. perniciosus to be hilly areas (100-300 m above the mean sea level charac- terised by temperate climate during the winter and summer seasons, high winter vegetation cover and moderate rainfall during the activity season of vector sand fly. ENM provided a greater understanding of the geographical distribution and ecological requirements of P. perniciosus in the study area, which can be applied for the development of future surveil- lance strategies.

  19. Organoids: Modeling Development and the Stem Cell Niche in a Dish.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kretzschmar, Kai; Clevers, Hans

    2016-09-26

    Organoids are three-dimensional in-vitro-grown cell clusters with near-native microanatomy that arise from self-organizing mammalian pluripotent or adult stem cells. Although monolayer stem cell cultures were established more than 40 years ago, organoid technology has recently emerged as an essential tool for both fundamental and biomedical research. For developmental biologists, organoids provide powerful means for ex vivo modeling of tissue morphogenesis and organogenesis. Here we discuss how organoid cultures of the intestine and other tissues have been established and how they are utilized as an in vitro model system for stem cell research and developmental biology. PMID:27676432

  20. Use of ecological niche modeling as a tool for predicting the potential distribution of Microcystis sp (cyanobacteria) in the Aguamilpa Dam, Nayarit, Mexico

    OpenAIRE

    Enrique Martinez-Meyer; Humberto Macias-Cuellar; José de Anda; Fernando A. González-Farias; Gabriel Rangel-Peraza; José Luis Ibarra-Montoya

    2012-01-01

    Ecological niche modeling is an important tool to evaluate the spatial distribution of terrestrial species, however, its applicability has been little explored in the aquatic environment. Microcystis sp., a species of cyanobacteria, is widely recognized for its ability to produce a group of toxins known as microcystins, which can cause death of animals as fish, birds and mammals depending on the amount of toxin absorbed. Like any taxonomic group, cyanobacteria has environmental thresholds, th...

  1. Use of ecological niche modeling as a tool for predicting the potential distribution of Microcystis sp (cyanobacteria in the Aguamilpa Dam, Nayarit, Mexico

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Enrique Martinez-Meyer

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Ecological niche modeling is an important tool to evaluate the spatial distribution of terrestrial species, however, its applicability has been little explored in the aquatic environment. Microcystis sp., a species of cyanobacteria, is widely recognized for its ability to produce a group of toxins known as microcystins, which can cause death of animals as fish, birds and mammals depending on the amount of toxin absorbed. Like any taxonomic group, cyanobacteria has environmental thresholds, therefore, a suitable ecological niche will define their distribution. This study was conducted in Aguamilpa Hydroelectric Reservoir, an artificial ecosystem that started operations in 1994. In this system we evaluated the potential distribution of Microcystis sp., by generating a prediction model based on the concept of ecological niche MAXENT, using a Digital Elevation Model in cells of 100 m x 100 m (1 ha spatial resolution and monitoring eleven physicochemical and biological variables and nutrients in water. The distribution maps were developed using ArcMap 9.2®. The results indicated that Microcystis sp., is distributed mainly in the upper tributary basin (Huaynamota basin during the dry season. There was less chance to find cyanobacteria in the entire system during the cold dry season, while during the warm dry season cyanobacteria was recognized at the confluence of two rivers. During the rainfall season there were no reports of cyanobacteria presence. This species is often associated with arising trophic processes of anthropogenic origin; therefore, attention is required in specific areas that have been identified in this work to improve Aguamilpa’s watershed management and restoration. It was also recognized the importance of phosphorus and nitrogen interaction, which determines the distribution of Microcystis sp., in the Aguamilpa Reservoir. The results of this study demonstrated that ecological niche modeling was a suitable tool to assess the

  2. Profound Climatic Effects on Two East Asian Black-Throated Tits (Ave: Aegithalidae), Revealed by Ecological Niche Models and Phylogeographic Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Dai, Chuanyin; Zhao, Na; Wang, Wenjuan; Lin, Congtian; Gao, Bin; Yang, Xiaojun; Zhang, Zhengwang; Lei, Fumin

    2011-01-01

    Although a number of studies have assessed the effects of geological and climatic changes on species distributions in East Asian, we still have limited knowledge of how these changes have impacted avian species in south-western and southern China. Here, we aim to study paleo-climatic effects on an East Asian bird, two subspecies of black-throated tit (A. c. talifuensis–concinnus) with the combined analysis of phylogeography and Ecological Niche Models (ENMs). We sequenced three mitochondrial ...

  3. The potential distribution of Phlebotomus papatasi (Diptera: Psychodidae) in Libya based on ecological niche model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abdel-Dayem, M S; Annajar, B B; Hanafi, H A; Obenauer, P J

    2012-05-01

    The increased cases of cutaneous leishmaniasis vectored by Phlebotomus papatasi (Scopoli) in Libya have driven considerable effort to develop a predictive model for the potential geographical distribution of this disease. We collected adult P. papatasi from 17 sites in Musrata and Yefern regions of Libya using four different attraction traps. Our trap results and literature records describing the distribution of P. papatasi were incorporated into a MaxEnt algorithm prediction model that used 22 environmental variables. The model showed a high performance (AUC = 0.992 and 0.990 for training and test data, respectively). High suitability for P. papatasi was predicted to be largely confined to the coast at altitudes Libya may find this information useful in their efforts to control zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis. Existing records are strongly biased toward a few geographical regions, and therefore, further sand fly collections are warranted that should include documentation of such factors as soil texture and humidity, land cover, and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data to increase the model's predictive power.

  4. Ecological niche models for four native cockroach species (Blattaria: Blattellidae: Ectobiinae) in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ciliberti, P.; Jong, de H.; Schouten, M.A.; Verweij, P.A.; Heitmans, W.R.B.

    2009-01-01

    This paper aims at modelling the spatial distribution of the cockroach species Capraiellus panzeri, Ectobius lapponicus, Ectobius pallidus and Ectobius sylvestris within the Netherlands and comparing the habitat preferences of these species. Maxent was used to calculate habitat suitability and to id

  5. Finding niches for whole-farm design models - contradictio in terminis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sterk, B.; Ittersum, van M.K.; Leeuwis, C.; Rossing, W.A.H.; Keulen, van H.; Ven, van de G.W.J.

    2006-01-01

    Whole-farm design models quantitatively analyze the effects of a variety of potential changes at the farm system level. Science-driven technical information is confronted with value-driven objectives of farmers or other social groupings under explicit assumptions with respect to exogenous variables

  6. Modelling the ecological niche of hookworm in Brazil based on climate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ntombi B. Mudenda

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available The distribution of hookworm in schistosomiasis-endemic areas in Brazil was mapped based on climate suitability. Known biological requirements of hookworm were fitted to data in a monthly long-term normal climate grid (18 x 18 km using geographical information systems. Hookworm risk models were produced using the growing degree day (GDD water budget (WB concept. A moisture-adjusted model (MA-GDD was developed based on accumulation of monthly temperatures above a base temperature of 15 °C (below which there is no lifecycle progression of Necator americanus conditional on concurrent monthly values (rain/potential, evapotranspiration of over 0.4. A second model, designated the gradient index, was calculated based on the monthly accumulation of the product of GDD and monthly WB values (GDD x WB. Both parameters had a significant positive correlation to hookworm prevalence. In the northeastern part of Brazil (the Caatinga, low hookworm prevalence was due to low soil moisture content, while the low prevalence in southern Brazil was related to low mean monthly temperatures. Both environmental temperature and soil moisture content were found to be important parameters for predicting the prevalence of N. americanus.

  7. Refugia, colonization and diversification of an arid-adapted bird: coincident patterns between genetic data and ecological niche modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barrientos, Rafael; Kvist, Laura; Barbosa, Andrés; Valera, Francisco; Khoury, Fares; Varela, Sara; Moreno, Eulalia

    2014-02-01

    Phylogeographical studies are common in boreal and temperate species from the Palaearctic, but scarce in arid-adapted species. We used nuclear and mitochondrial markers to investigate phylogeography and to estimate chronology of colonization events of the trumpeter finch Bucanetes githagineus, an arid-adapted bird. We used 271 samples from 16 populations, most of which were fresh samples but including some museum specimens. Microsatellite data showed no clear grouping according to the sampling locations. Microsatellite and mitochondrial data showed the clearest differentiation between Maghreb and Canary Islands and between Maghreb and Western Sahara. Mitochondrial data suggest differentiation between different Maghreb populations and among Maghreb and Near East populations, between Iberian Peninsula and Canary Islands, as well as between Western Sahara and Maghreb. Our coalescence analyses indicate that the trumpeter finch colonized North Africa during the humid Marine Isotope Stage 5 (MIS5) period of the Sahara region 125 000 years ago. We constructed an ecological niche model (ENM) to estimate the geographical distribution of climatically suitable habitats for the trumpeter finch. We tested whether changes in the species range in relation to glacial-interglacial cycles could be responsible for observed patterns of genetic diversity and structure. Modelling results matched with those from genetic data as the species' potential range increases in interglacial scenarios (in the present climatic scenario and during MIS5) and decreases in glacial climates (during the last glacial maximum, LGM, 21 000 years ago). Our results suggest that the trumpeter finch responded to Pleistocene climatic changes by expanding and contracting its range.

  8. Refugia, colonization and diversification of an arid-adapted bird: coincident patterns between genetic data and ecological niche modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barrientos, Rafael; Kvist, Laura; Barbosa, Andrés; Valera, Francisco; Khoury, Fares; Varela, Sara; Moreno, Eulalia

    2014-02-01

    Phylogeographical studies are common in boreal and temperate species from the Palaearctic, but scarce in arid-adapted species. We used nuclear and mitochondrial markers to investigate phylogeography and to estimate chronology of colonization events of the trumpeter finch Bucanetes githagineus, an arid-adapted bird. We used 271 samples from 16 populations, most of which were fresh samples but including some museum specimens. Microsatellite data showed no clear grouping according to the sampling locations. Microsatellite and mitochondrial data showed the clearest differentiation between Maghreb and Canary Islands and between Maghreb and Western Sahara. Mitochondrial data suggest differentiation between different Maghreb populations and among Maghreb and Near East populations, between Iberian Peninsula and Canary Islands, as well as between Western Sahara and Maghreb. Our coalescence analyses indicate that the trumpeter finch colonized North Africa during the humid Marine Isotope Stage 5 (MIS5) period of the Sahara region 125 000 years ago. We constructed an ecological niche model (ENM) to estimate the geographical distribution of climatically suitable habitats for the trumpeter finch. We tested whether changes in the species range in relation to glacial-interglacial cycles could be responsible for observed patterns of genetic diversity and structure. Modelling results matched with those from genetic data as the species' potential range increases in interglacial scenarios (in the present climatic scenario and during MIS5) and decreases in glacial climates (during the last glacial maximum, LGM, 21 000 years ago). Our results suggest that the trumpeter finch responded to Pleistocene climatic changes by expanding and contracting its range. PMID:24215522

  9. Prevalence, Distribution, and Development of an Ecological Niche Model of Dermacentor variabilis Ticks Positive for Rickettsia montanensis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    St John, Heidi K; Adams, Melissa L; Masuoka, Penny M; Flyer-Adams, Johanna G; Jiang, Ju; Rozmajzl, Patrick J; Stromdahl, Ellen Y; Richards, Allen L

    2016-04-01

    Rickettsia montanensis has long been considered a nonpathogenic member of the spotted fever group rickettsiae. However, the infection potential of R. montanensis is being revisited in light of its recent association with a case of human infection in the United States and the possibility that additional cases may have been misdiagnosed as Rocky Mountain spotted fever. To this end, DNA was extracted from American dog ticks (Dermacentor variabilis) removed from Department of Defense (DoD) personnel and their dependents at DoD medical treatment facilities (MTFs) during 2002-2012 (n = 4792). These 4792 samples were analyzed for the presence of R. montanensis (n =  36; 2.84%) and all vector DNA was confirmed to be of D. variabilis origin using a novel Dermacentor genus-specific quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction procedure, Derm, and a novel Dermacentor species multilocus sequence typing assay. To assess the risk of R. montanensis infection, the positive and negative samples were geographically mapped utilizing MTF site locations. Tick localities were imported into a geographical information systems (GIS) program, ArcGIS, for mapping and analysis. The ecological niche modeling (ENM) program, Maxent, was used to estimate the probability of tick presence in eastern United States using locations of both R. montanensis-positive and -negative ticks, climate, and elevation data. The ENM for R. montanensis-positive D. variabilis estimated high probabilities of the positive ticks occurring in two main areas, including the northern Midwest and mid-Atlantic portions of the northeastern regions of United States, whereas the R. montanensis-negative D. variabilis tick model showed a wider estimated range. The results suggest that R. montanensis-positive and -negative D. variabilis have different ranges where humans may be at risk and are influenced by similar and different factors.

  10. Prevalence, Distribution, and Development of an Ecological Niche Model of Dermacentor variabilis Ticks Positive for Rickettsia montanensis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    St John, Heidi K; Adams, Melissa L; Masuoka, Penny M; Flyer-Adams, Johanna G; Jiang, Ju; Rozmajzl, Patrick J; Stromdahl, Ellen Y; Richards, Allen L

    2016-04-01

    Rickettsia montanensis has long been considered a nonpathogenic member of the spotted fever group rickettsiae. However, the infection potential of R. montanensis is being revisited in light of its recent association with a case of human infection in the United States and the possibility that additional cases may have been misdiagnosed as Rocky Mountain spotted fever. To this end, DNA was extracted from American dog ticks (Dermacentor variabilis) removed from Department of Defense (DoD) personnel and their dependents at DoD medical treatment facilities (MTFs) during 2002-2012 (n = 4792). These 4792 samples were analyzed for the presence of R. montanensis (n =  36; 2.84%) and all vector DNA was confirmed to be of D. variabilis origin using a novel Dermacentor genus-specific quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction procedure, Derm, and a novel Dermacentor species multilocus sequence typing assay. To assess the risk of R. montanensis infection, the positive and negative samples were geographically mapped utilizing MTF site locations. Tick localities were imported into a geographical information systems (GIS) program, ArcGIS, for mapping and analysis. The ecological niche modeling (ENM) program, Maxent, was used to estimate the probability of tick presence in eastern United States using locations of both R. montanensis-positive and -negative ticks, climate, and elevation data. The ENM for R. montanensis-positive D. variabilis estimated high probabilities of the positive ticks occurring in two main areas, including the northern Midwest and mid-Atlantic portions of the northeastern regions of United States, whereas the R. montanensis-negative D. variabilis tick model showed a wider estimated range. The results suggest that R. montanensis-positive and -negative D. variabilis have different ranges where humans may be at risk and are influenced by similar and different factors. PMID:26900673

  11. Ecological niche of plant pathogens

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ecaterina Fodor

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available Disease ecology is a new approach to the understanding of the spread and dynamics of pathogens in natural and man-made environments. Defining and describing the ecological niche of the pathogens is one of the major tasks for ecological theory, as well as for practitioners preoccupied with the control and forecasting of established and emerging diseases. Niche theory has been periodically revised, not including in an explicit way the pathogens. However, many progresses have been achieved in niche modeling of disease spread, but few attempts were made to construct a theoretical frame for the ecological niche of pathogens. The paper is a review of the knowledge accumulated during last decades in the niche theory of pathogens and proposes an ecological approach in research. It quest for new control methods in what concerns forest plant pathogens, with a special emphasis on fungi like organisms of the genus Phytophthora. Species of Phytophthora are the most successful plant pathogens of the moment, affecting forest and agricultural systems worldwide, many of them being invasive alien organisms in many ecosystems. The hyperspace of their ecological niche is defined by hosts, environment and human interference, as main axes. To select most important variables within the hyperspace, is important for the understanding of the complex role of pathogens in the ecosystems as well as for control programs. Biotic relationships within ecosystem of host-pathogen couple are depicted by ecological network and specific metrics attached to this. The star shaped network is characterized by few high degree nodes, by short path lengths and relatively low connectivity, premises for a rapid disturbance spread.

  12. Ecological niche of plant pathogens

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ecaterina Fodor

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Disease ecology is a new approach to the understanding of the spread and dynamics of pathogens in natural and man-made environments. Defining and describing the ecological niche of the pathogens is one of the major tasks for ecological theory, as well as for practitioners preoccupied with the control and forecasting of established and emerging diseases. Niche theory has been periodically revised, not including in an explicit way the pathogens. However, many progresses have been achieved in niche modeling of disease spread, but few attempts were made to construct a theoretical frame for the ecological niche of pathogens. The paper is a review of the knowledge accumulated during last decades in the niche theory of pathogens and proposes an ecological approach in research. It quest for new control methods in what concerns forest plant pathogens, with a special emphasis on fungi like organisms of the genus Phytophthora. Species of Phytophthora are the most successful plant pathogens of the moment, affecting forest and agricultural systems worldwide, many of them being invasive alien organisms in many ecosystems. The hyperspace of their ecological niche is defined by hosts, environment and human interference, as main axes. To select most important variables within the hyperspace, is important the understanding of the complex role of pathogens in the ecosystems as well as for control programs. Biotic relationships within ecosystem of host-pathogen couple are depicted by ecological network and specific metrics attached to this. The star shaped network is characterized by few high degree nodes, by short path lengths and relatively low connectivity, premises for a rapid disturbance spread. 

  13. Hepatic stem cell niches

    OpenAIRE

    Kordes, Claus; Häussinger, Dieter

    2013-01-01

    Stem cell niches are special microenvironments that maintain stem cells and control their behavior to ensure tissue homeostasis and regeneration throughout life. The liver has a high regenerative capacity that involves stem/progenitor cells when the proliferation of hepatocytes is impaired. In recent years progress has been made in the identification of potential hepatic stem cell niches. There is evidence that hepatic progenitor cells can originate from niches in the canals...

  14. Niche construction game cancer cells play*

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bergman, Aviv; Gligorijevic, Bojana

    2016-01-01

    Niche construction concept was originally defined in evolutionary biology as the continuous interplay between natural selection via environmental conditions and the modification of these conditions by the organism itself. Processes unraveling during cancer metastasis include construction of niches, which cancer cells use towards more efficient survival, transport into new environments and preparation of the remote sites for their arrival. Many elegant experiments were done lately illustrating, for example, the premetastatic niche construction, but there is practically no mathematical modeling done which would apply the niche construction framework. To create models useful for understanding niche construction role in cancer progression, we argue that a) genetic, b) phenotypic and c) ecological levels are to be included. While the model proposed here is phenomenological in its current form, it can be converted into a predictive outcome model via experimental measurement of the model parameters. Here we give an overview of an experimentally formulated problem in cancer metastasis and propose how niche construction framework can be utilized and broadened to model it. Other life science disciplines, such as host-parasite coevolution, may also benefit from niche construction framework adaptation, to satisfy growing need for theoretical considerations of data collected by experimental biology.

  15. Niche construction game cancer cells play

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bergman, Aviv; Gligorijevic, Bojana

    2015-10-01

    Niche construction concept was originally defined in evolutionary biology as the continuous interplay between natural selection via environmental conditions and the modification of these conditions by the organism itself. Processes unraveling during cancer metastasis include construction of niches, which cancer cells use towards more efficient survival, transport into new environments and preparation of the remote sites for their arrival. Many elegant experiments were done lately illustrating, for example, the premetastatic niche construction, but there is practically no mathematical modeling done which would apply the niche construction framework. To create models useful for understanding niche construction role in cancer progression, we argue that a) genetic, b) phenotypic and c) ecological levels are to be included. While the model proposed here is phenomenological in its current form, it can be converted into a predictive outcome model via experimental measurement of the model parameters. Here we give an overview of an experimentally formulated problem in cancer metastasis and propose how niche construction framework can be utilized and broadened to model it. Other life science disciplines, such as host-parasite coevolution, may also benefit from niche construction framework adaptation, to satisfy growing need for theoretical considerations of data collected by experimental biology.

  16. Kinetic modeling reveals a common death niche for newly formed and mature B cells.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gitit Shahaf

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: B lymphocytes are subject to elimination following strong BCR ligation in the absence of appropriate second signals, and this mechanism mediates substantial cell losses during late differentiation steps in the bone marrow and periphery. Mature B cells may also be eliminated through this mechanism as well as through normal turnover, but the population containing mature cells destined for elimination has not been identified. Herein, we asked whether the transitional 3 (T3 subset, which contains most newly formed cells undergoing anergic death, could also include mature B cells destined for elimination. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: To interrogate this hypothesis and its implications, we applied mathematical models to previously generated in vivo labeling data. Our analyses reveal that the death rate of T3 B cells is far higher than the death rates of all other splenic B cell subpopulations. Further, the model, in which the T3 pool includes both newly formed and mature primary B cells destined for apoptotic death, shows that this cell loss may account for nearly all mature B cell turnover. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: This finding has implications for the mechanism of normal mature B cell turnover.

  17. Market positioning: the shifting effects of niche overlap

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J. Bruggeman; D. Grunow; M.A.A.M. Leenders; I. Vermeulen; J.G. Kuilman

    2012-01-01

    Organizational ecology models of market dynamics emphasize the competition-inducing role of inter-organizational niche overlap—targeting similar market niches increases competitive pressure and thus reduces organizations’ fitness. Recent studies, however, have suggested that moderate niche overlap m

  18. Modelling suitable estuarine habitats for Zostera noltii , using Ecological Niche Factor Analysis and Bathymetric LiDAR

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valle, Mireia; Borja, Ángel; Chust, Guillem; Galparsoro, Ibon; Garmendia, Joxe Mikel

    2011-08-01

    Predicting species distribution and habitat suitability is of considerable use in supporting the implementation of environmental legislation, protection and conservation of marine waters and ecosystem-based management. As other seagrasses, Zostera noltii has declined worldwide, mainly due to human pressures, such as eutrophication and habitat loss. In the case of the Basque Country (northern Spain), the species is present only in 3 out of 12 estuaries. From the literature, it is known that at least 6 of these estuaries were formerly vegetated by this seagrass. Consequently, efforts to monitor and restore (potential) habitats have been enhanced. Therefore, we aim: (i) to determine the main environmental variables explaining Zostera noltii distribution, within the Basque estuaries based upon the Oka estuary; (ii) to model habitat suitability for this species, as a wider applicable management-decision tool for seagrass restoration; and (iii) to assess the applicability and predicted accuracy of the model by using internal and external validation methods. For this purpose, Ecological Niche Factor Analysis (ENFA) has been used to model habitat suitability, based upon topographical variables, obtained from bathymetric Light Detection And Ranging (LiDAR); sediment characteristics variables; and hydrodynamic variables. The results obtained from the ecological factors of the ENFA (Marginality: 1.00; Specialization: 2.59) indicate that the species habitat differs considerably from the mean environmental conditions over the study area; likewise, that the species is restrictive in the selection of the range of conditions within which it dwells. The main environmental variables relating to the species distribution, in order of importance, are: mean grain size; redox potential; intertidal height; sediment sorting; slope of intertidal flat; percentage of gravels; and percentage of organic matter content. The model has a high predicted accuracy (Boyce index: 0.92). Model

  19. Supercooled Water Brines Within Permafrost-An Unknown Ecological Niche for Microorganisms: A Model for Astrobiology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gilichinsky, D.; Rivkina, E.; Shcherbakova, V.; Laurinavichuis, K.; Tiedje, J.

    2003-06-01

    This study describes brine lenses (cryopegs) found in Siberian permafrost derived from ancient marine sediment layers of the Arctic Ocean. The cryopegs were formed and isolated from sediment ~100,000-120,000 years ago. They remain liquid at the in situ temperature of -10°C as a result of their high salt content (170-300 g/L). [14C] Glucose is taken up by the cryopeg biomass at -15°C, indicating microbial metabolism at low temperatures in this habitat. Furthermore, aerobic, anaerobic heterotrophs, sulfate reducers, acetogens, and methanogens were detected by most probable number analysis. Two psychrophilic microbes were isolated from the cryopegs, a Clostridium and a Psychrobacter. The closest relatives of each were previously isolated from Antarctica. The cryopeg econiche might serve as a model for extraterrestrial life, and hence is of particular interest to astrobiology.

  20. Ecological niches of open ocean phytoplankton taxa

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brun, Philipp Georg; Vogt, Meike; Payne, Mark;

    2015-01-01

    We characterize the realized ecological niches of 133 phytoplankton taxa in the open ocean based on observations from the MAREDAT initiative and a statistical species distribution model (MaxEnt). The models find that the physical conditions (mixed layer depth, temperature, light) govern large...... conditions in the open ocean. Our estimates of the realized niches roughly match the predictions of Reynolds' C-S-R model for the global ocean, namely that taxa classified as nutrient stress tolerant have niches at lower nutrient and higher irradiance conditions than light stress tolerant taxa. Yet...

  1. Gastrospheres of human gastric mucosa cells: an in vitro model of stromal and epithelial stem cell niche reconstruction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santos, Carlos A N; Andrade, Leonardo R; Costa, Márcia H M; Souza, Heitor S P; Granjeiro, José M; Takiya, Christina M; Borojevic, Radovan; Nasciutti, Luiz E

    2016-08-01

    The molecular characterization of mechanisms involved in the gastrointestinal tract disorders needs an in vitro 3D culture model able to mimic the in vivo gastric microenvironment. Herein, we propose a 3D coculture system where gastric epithelial and stromal cells are grown together building spherical and solid structures using the NASA bioreactor - cell culture system (RCCS), a bioreactor. Epithelial and stromal cells from human antral gastric mucosa were isolated from endoscopic gastric biopsies. Thereafter, these cells were mechanically and enzymatically dispersed by treatment with dispase and collagenase, respectively. Using specific culture procedures, these cells formed 3D structures by using a RCCS, named "gastrospheres". Briefly, gastrospheres were obtained by initial seeding of 2.5x10⁴ cells/well in 96 well culture plates. At 24 h after their formation, they were transferred into RCCS, and maintained for 7, 14, 21, and 28 days. The gastrospheres were morphologically characterized by immunocytochemisty to evaluate extracellular matrix (ECM), and by electron microscopy. These analysis of gastrospheres revealed that the epithelial cells were cytokeratin (CK) and lectin reactive and were arranged in the outer layer; stromal cells presented long cytoplasmic processes and were localized inside the gastrosphere. They were vimentin (VIM) and α-smooth muscle actin (α-SMA) positive and expressed ECM components such as laminin (LN), fibronectin (FN), and type IV collagen (CIV). Electron microscopy revealed groups of cohesive gastric cells surrounded by complex stromal structures, with multiple microvilli, and tight cellular junctions interspersed with extracellular matrix fibrils and fibers. The presence of some nestin-positive cells was observed in the inner region of the gastrospheres, suggesting an intermediary localization between epithelial and stromal cells. Altogether, our data suggest that in vitro gastrospheres recapitulate the in vivo gastric niche

  2. Selecting a Conservation Surrogate Species for Small Fragmented Habitats Using Ecological Niche Modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nekaris, K Anne-Isola; Arnell, Andrew P; Svensson, Magdalena S

    2015-01-01

    Flagship species are traditionally large, charismatic animals used to rally conservation efforts. Accepted flagship definitions suggest they need only fulfil a strategic role, unlike umbrella species that are used to shelter cohabitant taxa. The criteria used to select both flagship and umbrella species may not stand up in the face of dramatic forest loss, where remaining fragments may only contain species that do not suit either set of criteria. The Cinderella species concept covers aesthetically pleasing and overlooked species that fulfil the criteria of flagships or umbrellas. Such species are also more likely to occur in fragmented habitats. We tested Cinderella criteria on mammals in the fragmented forests of the Sri Lankan Wet Zone. We selected taxa that fulfilled both strategic and ecological roles. We created a shortlist of ten species, and from a survey of local perceptions highlighted two finalists. We tested these for umbrella characteristics against the original shortlist, utilizing Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) modelling, and analysed distribution overlap using ArcGIS. The criteria highlighted Loris tardigradus tardigradus and Prionailurus viverrinus as finalists, with the former having highest flagship potential. We suggest Cinderella species can be effective conservation surrogates especially in habitats where traditional flagship species have been extirpated. PMID:26479135

  3. Selecting a Conservation Surrogate Species for Small Fragmented Habitats Using Ecological Niche Modelling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Anne-Isola Nekaris

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Flagship species are traditionally large, charismatic animals used to rally conservation efforts. Accepted flagship definitions suggest they need only fulfil a strategic role, unlike umbrella species that are used to shelter cohabitant taxa. The criteria used to select both flagship and umbrella species may not stand up in the face of dramatic forest loss, where remaining fragments may only contain species that do not suit either set of criteria. The Cinderella species concept covers aesthetically pleasing and overlooked species that fulfil the criteria of flagships or umbrellas. Such species are also more likely to occur in fragmented habitats. We tested Cinderella criteria on mammals in the fragmented forests of the Sri Lankan Wet Zone. We selected taxa that fulfilled both strategic and ecological roles. We created a shortlist of ten species, and from a survey of local perceptions highlighted two finalists. We tested these for umbrella characteristics against the original shortlist, utilizing Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt modelling, and analysed distribution overlap using ArcGIS. The criteria highlighted Loris tardigradus tardigradus and Prionailurus viverrinus as finalists, with the former having highest flagship potential. We suggest Cinderella species can be effective conservation surrogates especially in habitats where traditional flagship species have been extirpated.

  4. 基于突变级数法的技术生态位评价模型%Evaluation Model of Technology Niche Based on Catastrophe Progression Method

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    张光宇; 刘贻新; 谢卫红; 李华军

    2012-01-01

    技术生态位理论为解决当前我国企业在技术创新能力的培育发展中遇到的难题提供了有力的理论支持,但对于采用何种方法、如何有效评价技术生态位的研究还比较缺乏。因此,文章在借助技术生态位理论和技术能力理论研究成果的基础上,依据突变级数法原理来构建技术生态位评价模型,并通过对2008年我国电子及通信设备制造业的国有企业和三资企业为例验证了所构建模型的合理性和科学性。%Technology niche theory provides solutions for problems faced within the process of culti- vating the technological innovative capabilities for enterprises nowadays with strong theoretical support. However, as for which method to take, and how to effectively evaluate technology niche, the relating re- search are badly needed. Therefore, this paper build technology niche evaluation model according to ca- tastrophe progression method and basis of theoretical research achievements on technology niche theory and technology. This paper also proves the rationality and science of models built in this paper by exam- ples of state-owned businesses of manufacturing industry of electronic and telecommunications equipment.

  5. Development of An Integrated Hydrologic Model in Yolo County, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liang, Y.; Taghavi, A.; Stevenson, M.; Najmus, S.

    2006-12-01

    To more efficiently use the Cache Creek flows and the groundwater basin as the sources of water supply and to restore the riparian ecosystem along the Cache Creek, Yolo County Flood Control and Water Conservation District (YCFCWCD) in Woodland, California plans to conduct the Cache Creek Groundwater Recharge and Recovery Program (CCGRRP). The concept of this program is to operate the groundwater basin to induce greater amounts of groundwater recharge from Cache Creek directly along the creek and to increase the recharge even further by diverting rainy season water at the District's Capay Diversion Dam into the West Adams Canal to a few recharge basins outside the active channel of Cache Creek. Besides the CCGRRP, cities of Woodland and Davis are in the process of conducting groundwater management plans, and the stakeholders in Yolo County developing a long-term integrated regional water management plan (IRWMP) for the entire county. To effectively evaluate the benefits and impacts of CCGRRP, local groundwater management plans, and the Yolo County IRWMP, the Integrated Groundwater and Surface water Model (IGSM) was applied to the Yolo groundwater basin. The IGSM is a comprehensive integrated hydrologic model that simulates both surface water and groundwater flow systems, including rainfall-runoff, soil moisture accounting and unsaturated flow, crop consumptive module, stream-aquifer interaction, and groundwater flow. The finite element code was originally developed in 1990 for the California Department of Water Resources and the State Water Resources Control Board. The IGSM code has subsequently been applied to more than 25 groundwater basins in California and other states. The model code has been peer reviewed and upgraded throughout its application to various projects, with the latest upgrade in 2004, as part of the application to the Stony Creek Fan area of Sacramento Valley. The Yolo County IGSM (YCIGSM) was calibrated against the historical (1970

  6. Ecological niche modelling and differentiation between Rhodnius neglectus Lent, 1954 and Rhodnius nasutus Stål, 1859 (Hemiptera: Reduviidae: Triatominae in Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Taíza Almeida Batista

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Ecological niche modelling was used to predict the potential geographical distribution of Rhodnius nasutus Stål and Rhodnius neglectus Lent, in Brazil and to investigate the niche divergence between these morphologically similar triatomine species. The distribution of R. neglectus covered mainly the cerrado of Central Brazil, but the prediction maps also revealed its occurrence in transitional areas within the caatinga, Pantanal and Amazon biomes. The potential distribution of R. nasutus covered the Northeastern Region of Brazil in the semi-arid caatinga and the Maranhão babaçu forests. Clear ecological niche differences between these species were observed. R. nasutus occurred more in warmer and drier areas than R. neglectus. In the principal component analysis PC1 was correlated with altitude and temperature (mainly temperature in the coldest and driest months and PC2 with vegetation index and precipitation. The prediction maps support potential areas of co-occurrence for these species in the Maranhão babaçu forests and in caatinga/cerrado transitional areas, mainly in state of Piaui. Entomologists engaged in Chagas disease vector surveillance should be aware that R. neglectus and R. nasutus can occur in the same localities of Northeastern Brazil. Thus, the identification of bugs in these areas should be improved by applying morphometrical and/or molecular methods.

  7. A costing model for offshore decommissioning in California.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bressler, Andrew; Bernstein, Brock B

    2015-10-01

    California's 27 offshore oil and gas platforms will reach the end of their useful lifetimes sometime in the near future and will require decommissioning. Although existing leases require complete removal of all platforms and associated infrastructure, the underlying laws and regulations have changed in recent years to allow a number of alternative uses after decommissioning. In particular, AB 2503, signed into law in September 2010, provides for a rigs-to-reefs program that allows the state to accept ownership of decommissioned platforms in federal waters. Decisions about whether to remove platforms completely or leave them in place as artificial reefs will depend in part on the relative cost of the 2 options. In this study, we describe the design and use of a mathematical decision model that provides detailed cost estimates of complete and partial removal (to 85 feet below the water line) for California's offshore platforms. The model, PLATFORM, is loaded with Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement (BSEE) and Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) costs for complete removal, along with costs for partial removal calculated for this study and estimates of the uncertainty associated with decommissioning cost estimates. PLATFORM allows users to define a wide range of decommissioning and costing scenarios (e.g., number of platforms, choice of heavy lift vessel, shell mound removal, reef enhancement). As a benchmark cost, complete removal of all 27 offshore platforms, grouped into the 7 decommissioning projects defined by the most recent federal cost estimates produced in 2010, would cost an estimated $1.09 billion, whereas partial removal of these platforms, grouped into the same set of projects, would cost $478 million, with avoided costs of $616 million (with minor rounding). PMID:25914378

  8. Climate change and risk of leishmaniasis in north america: predictions from ecological niche models of vector and reservoir species.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Camila González

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Climate change is increasingly being implicated in species' range shifts throughout the world, including those of important vector and reservoir species for infectious diseases. In North America (México, United States, and Canada, leishmaniasis is a vector-borne disease that is autochthonous in México and Texas and has begun to expand its range northward. Further expansion to the north may be facilitated by climate change as more habitat becomes suitable for vector and reservoir species for leishmaniasis. METHODS AND FINDINGS: The analysis began with the construction of ecological niche models using a maximum entropy algorithm for the distribution of two sand fly vector species (Lutzomyia anthophora and L. diabolica, three confirmed rodent reservoir species (Neotoma albigula, N. floridana, and N. micropus, and one potential rodent reservoir species (N. mexicana for leishmaniasis in northern México and the United States. As input, these models used species' occurrence records with topographic and climatic parameters as explanatory variables. Models were tested for their ability to predict correctly both a specified fraction of occurrence points set aside for this purpose and occurrence points from an independently derived data set. These models were refined to obtain predicted species' geographical distributions under increasingly strict assumptions about the ability of a species to disperse to suitable habitat and to persist in it, as modulated by its ecological suitability. Models successful at predictions were fitted to the extreme A2 and relatively conservative B2 projected climate scenarios for 2020, 2050, and 2080 using publicly available interpolated climate data from the Third Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment Report. Further analyses included estimation of the projected human population that could potentially be exposed to leishmaniasis in 2020, 2050, and 2080 under the A2 and B2 scenarios. All confirmed

  9. California Wintertime Precipitation in Regional and Global Climate Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Caldwell, P M

    2009-04-27

    In this paper, wintertime precipitation from a variety of observational datasets, regional climate models (RCMs), and general circulation models (GCMs) is averaged over the state of California (CA) and compared. Several averaging methodologies are considered and all are found to give similar values when model grid spacing is less than 3{sup o}. This suggests that CA is a reasonable size for regional intercomparisons using modern GCMs. Results show that reanalysis-forced RCMs tend to significantly overpredict CA precipitation. This appears to be due mainly to overprediction of extreme events; RCM precipitation frequency is generally underpredicted. Overprediction is also reflected in wintertime precipitation variability, which tends to be too high for RCMs on both daily and interannual scales. Wintertime precipitation in most (but not all) GCMs is underestimated. This is in contrast to previous studies based on global blended gauge/satellite observations which are shown here to underestimate precipitation relative to higher-resolution gauge-only datasets. Several GCMs provide reasonable daily precipitation distributions, a trait which doesn't seem tied to model resolution. GCM daily and interannual variability is generally underpredicted.

  10. Modeling Species Distribution Using Niche-Based Proxies Derived from Composite Bioclimatic Variables and MODIS NDVI

    OpenAIRE

    Hannes Feilhauer; He, Kate S.; Duccio Rocchini

    2012-01-01

    Vegetation mapping based on niche theory has proven useful in understanding the rules governing species assembly at various spatial scales. Remote-sensing derived distribution maps depicting occurrences of target species are frequently based on biophysical and biochemical properties of species. However, environmental conditions, such as climatic variables, also affect spectral signals simultaneously. Further, climatic variables are the major drivers of species distribution at macroscales. The...

  11. Korarchaeota diversity, biogeography, and abundance in Yellowstone and Great Basin hot springs and ecological niche modeling based on machine learning.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robin L Miller-Coleman

    Full Text Available Over 100 hot spring sediment samples were collected from 28 sites in 12 areas/regions, while recording as many coincident geochemical properties as feasible (>60 analytes. PCR was used to screen samples for Korarchaeota 16S rRNA genes. Over 500 Korarchaeota 16S rRNA genes were screened by RFLP analysis and 90 were sequenced, resulting in identification of novel Korarchaeota phylotypes and exclusive geographical variants. Korarchaeota diversity was low, as in other terrestrial geothermal systems, suggesting a marine origin for Korarchaeota with subsequent niche-invasion into terrestrial systems. Korarchaeota endemism is consistent with endemism of other terrestrial thermophiles and supports the existence of dispersal barriers. Korarchaeota were found predominantly in >55°C springs at pH 4.7-8.5 at concentrations up to 6.6×10(6 16S rRNA gene copies g(-1 wet sediment. In Yellowstone National Park (YNP, Korarchaeota were most abundant in springs with a pH range of 5.7 to 7.0. High sulfate concentrations suggest these fluids are influenced by contributions from hydrothermal vapors that may be neutralized to some extent by mixing with water from deep geothermal sources or meteoric water. In the Great Basin (GB, Korarchaeota were most abundant at spring sources of pH<7.2 with high particulate C content and high alkalinity, which are likely to be buffered by the carbonic acid system. It is therefore likely that at least two different geological mechanisms in YNP and GB springs create the neutral to mildly acidic pH that is optimal for Korarchaeota. A classification support vector machine (C-SVM trained on single analytes, two analyte combinations, or vectors from non-metric multidimensional scaling models was able to predict springs as Korarchaeota-optimal or sub-optimal habitats with accuracies up to 95%. To our knowledge, this is the most extensive analysis of the geochemical habitat of any high-level microbial taxon and the first application of a C

  12. Korarchaeota diversity, biogeography, and abundance in Yellowstone and Great Basin hot springs and ecological niche modeling based on machine learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller-Coleman, Robin L; Dodsworth, Jeremy A; Ross, Christian A; Shock, Everett L; Williams, Amanda J; Hartnett, Hilairy E; McDonald, Austin I; Havig, Jeff R; Hedlund, Brian P

    2012-01-01

    Over 100 hot spring sediment samples were collected from 28 sites in 12 areas/regions, while recording as many coincident geochemical properties as feasible (>60 analytes). PCR was used to screen samples for Korarchaeota 16S rRNA genes. Over 500 Korarchaeota 16S rRNA genes were screened by RFLP analysis and 90 were sequenced, resulting in identification of novel Korarchaeota phylotypes and exclusive geographical variants. Korarchaeota diversity was low, as in other terrestrial geothermal systems, suggesting a marine origin for Korarchaeota with subsequent niche-invasion into terrestrial systems. Korarchaeota endemism is consistent with endemism of other terrestrial thermophiles and supports the existence of dispersal barriers. Korarchaeota were found predominantly in >55°C springs at pH 4.7-8.5 at concentrations up to 6.6×10(6) 16S rRNA gene copies g(-1) wet sediment. In Yellowstone National Park (YNP), Korarchaeota were most abundant in springs with a pH range of 5.7 to 7.0. High sulfate concentrations suggest these fluids are influenced by contributions from hydrothermal vapors that may be neutralized to some extent by mixing with water from deep geothermal sources or meteoric water. In the Great Basin (GB), Korarchaeota were most abundant at spring sources of pH<7.2 with high particulate C content and high alkalinity, which are likely to be buffered by the carbonic acid system. It is therefore likely that at least two different geological mechanisms in YNP and GB springs create the neutral to mildly acidic pH that is optimal for Korarchaeota. A classification support vector machine (C-SVM) trained on single analytes, two analyte combinations, or vectors from non-metric multidimensional scaling models was able to predict springs as Korarchaeota-optimal or sub-optimal habitats with accuracies up to 95%. To our knowledge, this is the most extensive analysis of the geochemical habitat of any high-level microbial taxon and the first application of a C-SVM to

  13. Northern California Seismic Attenuation: 3-D Qp and Qs models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eberhart-Phillips, D. M.

    2015-12-01

    The northern California crust exhibits a wide range of rock types and deformation processes which produce pronounced heterogeneity in regional attenuation. Using local earthquakes, 3-D Qp and Qs crustal models have been obtained for this region which includes the San Andreas fault system, the Central Valley, the Sierra Nevada batholith, and the Mendocino subduction volcanic system. Path attenuation t* values were determined from P and S spectra of 959 spatially distributed earthquakes, magnitude 2.5-6.0 from 2005-2014, using 1254 stations from NCEDC networks and IRIS Mendocino and Sierra Nevada temporary arrays. The t* data were used in Q inversions, using existing hypocenters and 3-D velocity models, with basic 10-km node spacing. The uneven data coverage was accounted for with linking of nodes into larger areas in order to provide useful Q images across the 3-D volume. The results at shallow depth (< 2 km) show very low Q in the Sacramento Delta, the Eureka area, and parts of the Bay Area. In the brittle crust, fault zones that have high seismicity exhibit low Q. In the lower crust, low Q is observed along fault zones that have large cumulative displacement and have experienced grain size reduction. Underlying active volcanic areas, low Q features are apparent below 20-km depth. Moderately high Q is associated with igneous rocks of the Sierra Nevada and Salinian block, while the Franciscan subduction complex shows moderately low Q. The most prominent high Q feature is related to the Great Valley Ophiolite.

  14. Artificial Stem Cell Niches

    OpenAIRE

    Lutolf, Matthias P.; Blau, Helen M.

    2009-01-01

    Stem cells are characterized by their dual ability to reproduce themselves (self-renew) and specialize (differentiate), yielding a plethora of daughter cells that maintain and regenerate tissues. In contrast to their embryonic counterparts, adult stem cells retain their unique functions only if they are in intimate contact with an instructive microenvironment, termed stem cell niche. In these niches, stem cells integrate a complex array of molecular signals that, in concert with induced cell-...

  15. CCIEA data and model output - California Current Integrated Ecosystem Assessment

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The California Current Integrated Ecosystem Assessment (CCIEA) is a joint project between staff at the NWFSC, SWFSC, NMML, ONMS, and WCRO to provide managers and...

  16. Hidden Markov Models for Detecting Aseismic Events in Southern California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Granat, R.

    2004-12-01

    We employ a hidden Markov model (HMM) to segment surface displacement time series collection by the Southern California Integrated Geodetic Network (SCIGN). These segmented time series are then used to detect regional events by observing the number of simultaneous mode changes across the network; if a large number of stations change at the same time, that indicates an event. The hidden Markov model (HMM) approach assumes that the observed data has been generated by an unobservable dynamical statistical process. The process is of a particular form such that each observation is coincident with the system being in a particular discrete state, which is interpreted as a behavioral mode. The dynamics are the model are constructed so that the next state is directly dependent only on the current state -- it is a first order Markov process. The model is completely described by a set of parameters: the initial state probabilities, the first order Markov chain state-to-state transition probabilities, and the probability distribution of observable outputs associated with each state. The result of this approach is that our segmentation decisions are based entirely on statistical changes in the behavior of the observed daily displacements. In general, finding the optimal model parameters to fit the data is a difficult problem. We present an innovative model fitting method that is unsupervised (i.e., it requires no labeled training data) and uses a regularized version of the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm to ensure that model solutions are both robust with respect to initial conditions and of high quality. We demonstrate the reliability of the method as compared to standard model fitting methods and show that it results in lower noise in the mode change correlation signal used to detect regional events. We compare candidate events detected by this method to the seismic record and observe that most are not correlated with a significant seismic event. Our analysis

  17. Physical oceanography - Developing end-to-end models of the California Current Large Marine Ecosystem

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The purpose of this project is to develop spatially discrete end-to-end models of the California Current LME, linking oceanography, biogeochemistry, food web...

  18. A seamless, high-resolution, coastal digital elevation model (DEM) for Southern California

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — A seamless, three-meter digital elevation model (DEM) was constructed for the entire Southern California coastal zone, extending 473 km from Point Conception to the...

  19. Digital Elevation Model of Little Holland Tract, Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta, California, 2015

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — This product is a digital elevation model (DEM) for the Little Holland Tract in the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta, California based on U.S. Geological Survey...

  20. Neutral biogeography and the evolution of climatic niches.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boucher, Florian C; Thuiller, Wilfried; Davies, T Jonathan; Lavergne, Sébastien

    2014-05-01

    Recent debate on whether climatic niches are conserved through time has focused on how phylogenetic niche conservatism can be measured by deviations from a Brownian motion model of evolutionary change. However, there has been no evaluation of this methodological approach. In particular, the fact that climatic niches are usually obtained from distribution data and are thus heavily influenced by biogeographic factors has largely been overlooked. Our main objective here was to test whether patterns of climatic niche evolution that are frequently observed might arise from neutral dynamics rather than from adaptive scenarios. We developed a model inspired by neutral biodiversity theory, where individuals disperse, compete, and undergo speciation independently of climate. We then sampled the climatic niches of species according to their geographic position and showed that even when species evolve independently of climate, their niches can nonetheless exhibit evolutionary patterns strongly differing from Brownian motion. Indeed, climatic niche evolution is better captured by a model of punctuated evolution with constraints due to landscape boundaries, two features that are traditionally interpreted as evidence for selective processes acting on the niche. We therefore suggest that deviation from Brownian motion alone should not be used as evidence for phylogenetic niche conservatism but that information on phenotypic traits directly linked to physiology is required to demonstrate that climatic niches have been conserved through time. PMID:24739191

  1. Relaxed random walk model coupled with ecological niche modeling unravel the dispersal dynamics of a Neotropical savanna tree species in the deeper Quaternary

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rosane Garcia Collevatti

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Understanding the dispersal routes of Neotropical savanna tree species is an essential step to unravel the effects of past climate change on genetic patterns, species distribution and population demography. Here we reconstruct the demographic history and dispersal dynamics of the Neotropical savanna tree species Tabebuia aurea to understand the effects of Quaternary climate change on its current spatial patterns of genetic diversity. We sampled 285 individuals from 21 populations throughout Brazilian savannas and sequenced all individuals for three chloroplast intergenic spacers and ITS nrDNA. We analyzed data using a multi-model inference framework by coupling the relaxed random walk model, ecological niche modeling (ENM and statistical phylogeography. The most recent common ancestor of T. aurea lineages dated from ~4.0 ± 2.5 Ma. Tabebuia aurea lineages cyclically dispersed from the West towards the Central-West Brazil, and from the Southeast towards the East and Northeast Brazil, following the paleodistribution dynamics shown by the ENMs through the last glacial cycle. A historical refugium through time may have allowed dispersal of lineages among populations of Central Brazil, overlapping with population expansion during interglacial periods and the diversification of new lineages. Range and population expansion through the Quaternary were, respectively, the most frequent prediction from ENMs and the most likely demographic scenario from coalescent simulations. Consistent phylogeographic patterns among multiple modeling inferences indicate a promising approach, allowing us to understand how cyclical climate changes through the Quaternary drove complex population dynamics and the current patterns of species distribution and genetic diversity.

  2. Habitat suitability modelling reveals a strong niche overlap between two poorly known species, the broom hare and the Pyrenean grey partridge, in the north of Spain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Acevedo, Pelayo; Alzaga, Vanesa; Cassinello, Jorge; Gortázar, Christian

    2007-03-01

    In the present work, we derive a habitat suitability model of the broom hare and the Pyrenean grey partridge in the Cantabrian Mountains by using the Ecological Niche Factor Analysis. Both species are endemic to the northern of Iberian mountains, and because of the vulnerability of the hare to endangerment or extinction and because of the great interest in the partridge, this habitat requires specific conservation measures. Literature on these animals' biology and ecology is practically nonexistent. Habitat suitability analyses show that the hare and partridge occupy very similar ecological niches, characterized by a high percentage of broom and heather scrublands, high altitude and slope, and limited human accessibility. We have identified differences in habitat selection between the Pyrenean grey partridge and other subspecies of partridge present in central-northern Europe. Our results indicate a probable metapopulation structure for both the hare and partridge; however, according to our predictive maps, there is a high connectivity between suitable habitats. Current decline of traditional rural activities, such as mountain livestock, are affecting the mosaic landscape. This, in turn, enhances biodiversity in the area and, particularly, the viability of these valuable animal populations.

  3. Ecological Niche Modelling Predicts Southward Expansion of Lutzomyia (Nyssomyia flaviscutellata (Diptera: Psychodidae: Phlebotominae, Vector of Leishmania (Leishmania amazonensis in South America, under Climate Change.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bruno M Carvalho

    Full Text Available Vector borne diseases are susceptible to climate change because distributions and densities of many vectors are climate driven. The Amazon region is endemic for cutaneous leishmaniasis and is predicted to be severely impacted by climate change. Recent records suggest that the distributions of Lutzomyia (Nyssomyia flaviscutellata and the parasite it transmits, Leishmania (Leishmania amazonensis, are expanding southward, possibly due to climate change, and sometimes associated with new human infection cases. We define the vector's climatic niche and explore future projections under climate change scenarios. Vector occurrence records were compiled from the literature, museum collections and Brazilian Health Departments. Six bioclimatic variables were used as predictors in six ecological niche model algorithms (BIOCLIM, DOMAIN, MaxEnt, GARP, logistic regression and Random Forest. Projections for 2050 used 17 general circulation models in two greenhouse gas representative concentration pathways: "stabilization" and "high increase". Ensemble models and consensus maps were produced by overlapping binary predictions. Final model outputs showed good performance and significance. The use of species absence data substantially improved model performance. Currently, L. flaviscutellata is widely distributed in the Amazon region, with records in the Atlantic Forest and savannah regions of Central Brazil. Future projections indicate expansion of the climatically suitable area for the vector in both scenarios, towards higher latitudes and elevations. L. flaviscutellata is likely to find increasingly suitable conditions for its expansion into areas where human population size and density are much larger than they are in its current locations. If environmental conditions change as predicted, the range of the vector is likely to expand to southeastern and central-southern Brazil, eastern Paraguay and further into the Amazonian areas of Bolivia, Peru, Ecuador

  4. Ecological Niche Modelling Predicts Southward Expansion of Lutzomyia (Nyssomyia) flaviscutellata (Diptera: Psychodidae: Phlebotominae), Vector of Leishmania (Leishmania) amazonensis in South America, under Climate Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carvalho, Bruno M; Rangel, Elizabeth F; Ready, Paul D; Vale, Mariana M

    2015-01-01

    Vector borne diseases are susceptible to climate change because distributions and densities of many vectors are climate driven. The Amazon region is endemic for cutaneous leishmaniasis and is predicted to be severely impacted by climate change. Recent records suggest that the distributions of Lutzomyia (Nyssomyia) flaviscutellata and the parasite it transmits, Leishmania (Leishmania) amazonensis, are expanding southward, possibly due to climate change, and sometimes associated with new human infection cases. We define the vector's climatic niche and explore future projections under climate change scenarios. Vector occurrence records were compiled from the literature, museum collections and Brazilian Health Departments. Six bioclimatic variables were used as predictors in six ecological niche model algorithms (BIOCLIM, DOMAIN, MaxEnt, GARP, logistic regression and Random Forest). Projections for 2050 used 17 general circulation models in two greenhouse gas representative concentration pathways: "stabilization" and "high increase". Ensemble models and consensus maps were produced by overlapping binary predictions. Final model outputs showed good performance and significance. The use of species absence data substantially improved model performance. Currently, L. flaviscutellata is widely distributed in the Amazon region, with records in the Atlantic Forest and savannah regions of Central Brazil. Future projections indicate expansion of the climatically suitable area for the vector in both scenarios, towards higher latitudes and elevations. L. flaviscutellata is likely to find increasingly suitable conditions for its expansion into areas where human population size and density are much larger than they are in its current locations. If environmental conditions change as predicted, the range of the vector is likely to expand to southeastern and central-southern Brazil, eastern Paraguay and further into the Amazonian areas of Bolivia, Peru, Ecuador, Colombia and Venezuela

  5. Ecological Niche Modelling Predicts Southward Expansion of Lutzomyia (Nyssomyia) flaviscutellata (Diptera: Psychodidae: Phlebotominae), Vector of Leishmania (Leishmania) amazonensis in South America, under Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carvalho, Bruno M.; Ready, Paul D.

    2015-01-01

    Vector borne diseases are susceptible to climate change because distributions and densities of many vectors are climate driven. The Amazon region is endemic for cutaneous leishmaniasis and is predicted to be severely impacted by climate change. Recent records suggest that the distributions of Lutzomyia (Nyssomyia) flaviscutellata and the parasite it transmits, Leishmania (Leishmania) amazonensis, are expanding southward, possibly due to climate change, and sometimes associated with new human infection cases. We define the vector’s climatic niche and explore future projections under climate change scenarios. Vector occurrence records were compiled from the literature, museum collections and Brazilian Health Departments. Six bioclimatic variables were used as predictors in six ecological niche model algorithms (BIOCLIM, DOMAIN, MaxEnt, GARP, logistic regression and Random Forest). Projections for 2050 used 17 general circulation models in two greenhouse gas representative concentration pathways: “stabilization” and “high increase”. Ensemble models and consensus maps were produced by overlapping binary predictions. Final model outputs showed good performance and significance. The use of species absence data substantially improved model performance. Currently, L. flaviscutellata is widely distributed in the Amazon region, with records in the Atlantic Forest and savannah regions of Central Brazil. Future projections indicate expansion of the climatically suitable area for the vector in both scenarios, towards higher latitudes and elevations. L. flaviscutellata is likely to find increasingly suitable conditions for its expansion into areas where human population size and density are much larger than they are in its current locations. If environmental conditions change as predicted, the range of the vector is likely to expand to southeastern and central-southern Brazil, eastern Paraguay and further into the Amazonian areas of Bolivia, Peru, Ecuador, Colombia and

  6. Combining a climatic niche model of an invasive fungus with its host species distributions to identify risks to natural assets: Puccinia psidii Sensu Lato in Australia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Darren J Kriticos

    Full Text Available Puccinia psidii sensu lato (s.l. is an invasive rust fungus threatening a wide range of plant species in the family Myrtaceae. Originating from Central and South America, it has invaded mainland USA and Hawai'i, parts of Asia and Australia. We used CLIMEX to develop a semi-mechanistic global climatic niche model based on new data on the distribution and biology of P. psidii s.l. The model was validated using independent distribution data from recently invaded areas in Australia, China and Japan. We combined this model with distribution data of its potential Myrtaceae host plant species present in Australia to identify areas and ecosystems most at risk. Myrtaceaeous species richness, threatened Myrtaceae and eucalypt plantations within the climatically suitable envelope for P. psidii s.l in Australia were mapped. Globally the model identifies climatically suitable areas for P. psidii s.l. throughout the wet tropics and sub-tropics where moist conditions with moderate temperatures prevail, and also into some cool regions with a mild Mediterranean climate. In Australia, the map of species richness of Myrtaceae within the P. psidii s.l. climatic envelope shows areas where epidemics are hypothetically more likely to be frequent and severe. These hotspots for epidemics are along the eastern coast of New South Wales, including the Sydney Basin, in the Brisbane and Cairns areas in Queensland, and in the coastal region from the south of Bunbury to Esperance in Western Australia. This new climatic niche model for P. psidii s.l. indicates a higher degree of cold tolerance; and hence a potential range that extends into higher altitudes and latitudes than has been indicated previously. The methods demonstrated here provide some insight into the impacts an invasive species might have within its climatically suited range, and can help inform biosecurity policies regarding the management of its spread and protection of valued threatened assets.

  7. 生态位模型的模糊建模研究综述%Review of Niche Model Base on Fuzzymodeling

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    孙曦浩

    2015-01-01

    Niche theory is the basis for much ecological research.It is useful for further research for eco-system and community.Due to the uncertainty and complexity of ecosystem,it’s hard to quantifying the model.Fuzzy set theory is an efficient method for describing uncertainty and complexity,which had been widely used in communication,control financial and medical.In this paper,we proposed the niche model based on fuzzy modeling.Therefore,the advantage and disadvantage of each model are discussed.Finally, the direction and development of fuzzy modeling is also mentioned.%生态位概念是生态系统理论研究和实际应用中的基础,生态位模型是进一步讨论生态位系统和生物群落等热点问题的工具。但由于生态系统的不确定性和复杂性使得模型的量化存在困难。模糊系统理论是描述不确定性和复杂性的有效方法,被广泛应用于通信、控制、金融和医疗等领域。介绍了生态位模型的模糊建模方法,系统总结了生态位模糊建模的发展历程,并指出各个模型存在的优缺点。最后,对生态位模糊建模在生态学中发展的前景和方向进行展望。

  8. Ecological Niche Modelling Predicts Southward Expansion of Lutzomyia (Nyssomyia) flaviscutellata (Diptera: Psychodidae: Phlebotominae), Vector of Leishmania (Leishmania) amazonensis in South America, under Climate Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carvalho, Bruno M; Rangel, Elizabeth F; Ready, Paul D; Vale, Mariana M

    2015-01-01

    Vector borne diseases are susceptible to climate change because distributions and densities of many vectors are climate driven. The Amazon region is endemic for cutaneous leishmaniasis and is predicted to be severely impacted by climate change. Recent records suggest that the distributions of Lutzomyia (Nyssomyia) flaviscutellata and the parasite it transmits, Leishmania (Leishmania) amazonensis, are expanding southward, possibly due to climate change, and sometimes associated with new human infection cases. We define the vector's climatic niche and explore future projections under climate change scenarios. Vector occurrence records were compiled from the literature, museum collections and Brazilian Health Departments. Six bioclimatic variables were used as predictors in six ecological niche model algorithms (BIOCLIM, DOMAIN, MaxEnt, GARP, logistic regression and Random Forest). Projections for 2050 used 17 general circulation models in two greenhouse gas representative concentration pathways: "stabilization" and "high increase". Ensemble models and consensus maps were produced by overlapping binary predictions. Final model outputs showed good performance and significance. The use of species absence data substantially improved model performance. Currently, L. flaviscutellata is widely distributed in the Amazon region, with records in the Atlantic Forest and savannah regions of Central Brazil. Future projections indicate expansion of the climatically suitable area for the vector in both scenarios, towards higher latitudes and elevations. L. flaviscutellata is likely to find increasingly suitable conditions for its expansion into areas where human population size and density are much larger than they are in its current locations. If environmental conditions change as predicted, the range of the vector is likely to expand to southeastern and central-southern Brazil, eastern Paraguay and further into the Amazonian areas of Bolivia, Peru, Ecuador, Colombia and Venezuela

  9. Estimating Policy-Driven Greenhouse Gas Emissions Trajectories in California: The California Greenhouse Gas Inventory Spreadsheet (GHGIS) Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Greenblatt, Jeffery B.

    2013-10-10

    A California Greenhouse Gas Inventory Spreadsheet (GHGIS) model was developed to explore the impact of combinations of state policies on state greenhouse gas (GHG) and regional criteria pollutant emissions. The model included representations of all GHG- emitting sectors of the California economy (including those outside the energy sector, such as high global warming potential gases, waste treatment, agriculture and forestry) in varying degrees of detail, and was carefully calibrated using available data and projections from multiple state agencies and other sources. Starting from basic drivers such as population, numbers of households, gross state product, numbers of vehicles, etc., the model calculated energy demands by type (various types of liquid and gaseous hydrocarbon fuels, electricity and hydrogen), and finally calculated emissions of GHGs and three criteria pollutants: reactive organic gases (ROG), nitrogen oxides (NOx), and fine (2.5 ?m) particulate matter (PM2.5). Calculations were generally statewide, but in some sectors, criteria pollutants were also calculated for two regional air basins: the South Coast Air Basin (SCAB) and the San Joaquin Valley (SJV). Three scenarios were developed that attempt to model: (1) all committed policies, (2) additional, uncommitted policy targets and (3) potential technology and market futures. Each scenario received extensive input from state energy planning agencies, in particular the California Air Resources Board. Results indicate that all three scenarios are able to meet the 2020 statewide GHG targets, and by 2030, statewide GHG emissions range from between 208 and 396 MtCO2/yr. However, none of the scenarios are able to meet the 2050 GHG target of 85 MtCO2/yr, with emissions ranging from 188 to 444 MtCO2/yr, so additional policies will need to be developed for California to meet this stringent future target. A full sensitivity study of major scenario assumptions was also performed. In terms of criteria pollutants

  10. The Model of Bioethics as “Semiotic Attractors” for Diagnosing Innovative Strategies of Training Specialists for NBICS-Technologies Niche

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Melik-Gaykazyan Irina V.

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Authors interpret bioethics’ models as a fixation of the new symbolism in which sociocultural systems expressed its response to impact of technologies standardizing the image of a human being. At the moment it is NBICS technologies that are responsible for this impact. Convergency of these technologies’ goals makes education responsible for adjustments of the future states of culture formed by NBICS-technologies. The possibility of this adjustment provided by the fact that training of specialists for the NBICS-technologies niche as the primary resource of those technologies is processed in the space of educational systems. The article reveals the structure of this space; bioethics’ models are distributed in the context of this structure and proofs produced for understanding the semiotic essence of the phenomenon of education. These conceptual suggestions shape the original method of semiotic diagnostics of innovative educational strategies based on interpretation of bioethics’ symbolism as “semiotic attractors” of knowledge management related to convergent technologies.

  11. Gulf of California species and catch spatial distributions and historical time series - Developing end-to-end models of the Gulf of California

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The purpose of this project is to develop spatially discrete end-to-end models of the northern Gulf of California, linking oceanography, biogeochemistry, food web...

  12. Evidence of climatic niche shift during biological invasion

    OpenAIRE

    Broennimann, Olivier; Urs A Treier; Müller-Schärer, Heinz; Thuiller, W.; Peterson, A. T.; Guisan, Antoine

    2007-01-01

    Niche-based models calibrated in the native range by relating species observations to climatic variables are commonly used to predict the potential spatial extent of species’ invasion. This climate matching approach relies on the assumption that invasive species conserve their climatic niche in the invaded ranges. We test this assumption by analysing the climatic niche spaces of Spotted Knapweed in western North America and Europe. We show with robust cross-continental data that a shift of th...

  13. Unveiling the factors shaping the distribution of widely distributed alpine vertebrates, using multi-scale ecological niche modelling of the bat Plecotus macrobullaris.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alberdi, Antton; Aizpurua, Ostaizka; Aihartza, Joxerra; Garin, Inazio

    2014-01-01

    Several alpine vertebrates share a distribution pattern that extends across the South-western Palearctic but is limited to the main mountain massifs. Although they are usually regarded as cold-adapted species, the range of many alpine vertebrates also includes relatively warm areas, suggesting that factors beyond climatic conditions may be driving their distribution. In this work we first recognize the species belonging to the mentioned biogeographic group and, based on the environmental niche analysis of Plecotus macrobullaris, we identify and characterize the environmental factors constraining their ranges. Distribution overlap analysis of 504 European vertebrates was done using the Sorensen Similarity Index, and we identified four birds and one mammal that share the distribution with P. macrobullaris. We generated 135 environmental niche models including different variable combinations and regularization values for P. macrobullaris at two different scales and resolutions. After selecting the best models, we observed that topographic variables outperformed climatic predictors, and the abruptness of the landscape showed better predictive ability than elevation. The best explanatory climatic variable was mean summer temperature, which showed that P. macrobullaris is able to cope with mean temperature ranges spanning up to 16°C. The models showed that the distribution of P. macrobullaris is mainly shaped by topographic factors that provide rock-abundant and open-space habitats rather than climatic determinants, and that the species is not a cold-adapted, but rather a cold-tolerant eurithermic organism. P. macrobullaris shares its distribution pattern as well as several ecological features with five other alpine vertebrates, suggesting that the conclusions obtained from this study might be extensible to them. We concluded that rock-dwelling and open-space foraging vertebrates with broad temperature tolerance are the best candidates to show wide alpine distribution

  14. Ecological niche transferability using invasive species as a case study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miguel Fernández

    Full Text Available Species distribution modeling is widely applied to predict invasive species distributions and species range shifts under climate change. Accurate predictions depend upon meeting the assumption that ecological niches are conserved, i.e., spatially or temporally transferable. Here we present a multi-taxon comparative analysis of niche conservatism using biological invasion events well documented in natural history museum collections. Our goal is to assess spatial transferability of the climatic niche of a range of noxious terrestrial invasive species using two complementary approaches. First we compare species' native versus invasive ranges in environmental space using two distinct methods, Principal Components Analysis and Mahalanobis distance. Second we compare species' native versus invaded ranges in geographic space as estimated using the species distribution modeling technique Maxent and the comparative index Hellinger's I. We find that species exhibit a range of responses, from almost complete transferability, in which the invaded niches completely overlap with the native niches, to a complete dissociation between native and invaded ranges. Intermediate responses included expansion of dimension attributable to either temperature or precipitation derived variables, as well as niche expansion in multiple dimensions. We conclude that the ecological niche in the native range is generally a poor predictor of invaded range and, by analogy, the ecological niche may be a poor predictor of range shifts under climate change. We suggest that assessing dimensions of niche transferability prior to standard species distribution modeling may improve the understanding of species' dynamics in the invaded range.

  15. Phylogeography of Arabidopsis halleri (Brassicaceae) in mountain regions of Central Europe inferred from cpDNA variation and ecological niche modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wasowicz, Pawel; Pauwels, Maxime; Pasierbinski, Andrzej; Przedpelska-Wasowicz, Ewa M; Babst-Kostecka, Alicja A; Saumitou-Laprade, Pierre; Rostanski, Adam

    2016-01-01

    The present study aimed to investigate phylogeographical patterns present within A. halleri in Central Europe. 1,281 accessions sampled from 52 populations within the investigated area were used in the study of genetic variation based on chloroplast DNA. Over 500 high-quality species occurrence records were used in ecological niche modelling experiments. We evidenced the presence of a clear phylogeographic structure within A. halleri in Central Europe. Our results showed that two genetically different groups of populations are present in western and eastern part of the Carpathians. The hypothesis of the existence of a glacial refugium in the Western Carpathians adn the Bohemian Forest cannot be rejected from our data. It seems, however, that the evidence collected during the present study is not conclusive. The area of Sudetes was colonised after LGM probably by migrants from the Bohemian Forest. PMID:26835186

  16. Phylogeography of Arabidopsis halleri (Brassicaceae) in mountain regions of Central Europe inferred from cpDNA variation and ecological niche modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pauwels, Maxime; Pasierbinski, Andrzej; Przedpelska-Wasowicz, Ewa M.; Babst-Kostecka, Alicja A.; Saumitou-Laprade, Pierre; Rostanski, Adam

    2016-01-01

    The present study aimed to investigate phylogeographical patterns present within A. halleri in Central Europe. 1,281 accessions sampled from 52 populations within the investigated area were used in the study of genetic variation based on chloroplast DNA. Over 500 high-quality species occurrence records were used in ecological niche modelling experiments. We evidenced the presence of a clear phylogeographic structure within A. halleri in Central Europe. Our results showed that two genetically different groups of populations are present in western and eastern part of the Carpathians. The hypothesis of the existence of a glacial refugium in the Western Carpathians adn the Bohemian Forest cannot be rejected from our data. It seems, however, that the evidence collected during the present study is not conclusive. The area of Sudetes was colonised after LGM probably by migrants from the Bohemian Forest. PMID:26835186

  17. Phylogeographic analysis and environmental niche modeling of widespread shrub Rhododendron simsii in China reveals multiple glacial refugia during the last glacial maximum

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Yong LI; Hai-Fei YAN; Xue-Jun GE

    2012-01-01

    The phylogeography of common and widespread species can help us to understand the history of local flora and vegetation.Here,we study the semi-evergreen shrub Rhododendron simsii Planch.,which is found in most areas of current evergreen broad leaved forest in China.Two noncoding chloroplast DNA (cpDNA) regions(rpl20-rps12 and trnL-F) and three amplified fragment length polymorphism (AFLP) primer sets (E-AAC/M-CTA,E-AGC/M-CTA and E-AGG/M-CAT) were used to examine the phylogeographic pattern in relation to past (last glacial maximum) and present distributions based on ecological niche modeling.The cpDNA data revealed four phylogeographic groups (East,South,West,and North groups) corresponding to geographic regions.Molecular dating suggests that lineage diversification within species likely occurred during the mid-to-late Pleistocene.In contrast,the four main cpDNA phylogeographic groups were not supported by the AFLP dataset.The highest likelihood of the AFLP data was obtained when samples were clustered into three groups (K =3).However,these groupings did not correspond to separate geographic regions supported by cpDNA data.Both mismatch distribution analysis and environmental niche modeling (ENM) indicated that multiple glacial refugia were maintained across the range of Rhododendron simsii during the last glacial maximum,contrary to the previous hypothesis that subtropical broad leaved evergreen forests were forced to retreat southward as far as 25°N.The discordance between the patterns revealed by cpDNA and AFLP data indicate that localized postglacial range expansions may facilitate extensive gene flow between the major glacial refugia.

  18. Model and observed statistics of California earthquakes parameters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. CONSOLE

    1977-06-01

    Full Text Available RIASSUNTO - 11 modello proposto da Caputo per la statistica dei parametri
    dei terremoti in una zona sismica viene confrontato con i dati disponibili per
    la California. Tali dati provengono dal lavoro di Thatcher e Hanks e da quelli
    di Tucker e Brune. In essi sono riportate le serie di parametri M,M0 , l e / p
    osservati sperimentalmente. Per entrambe le serie di parametri vengono calcolate
    le distribuzioni statistiche e i risultali sono confrontati fra loro per mezzo delle
    relazioni imposte dalla teoria. I risultati, compatibilmente con le incertezze
    sperimentali e la scarsezza dei campioni adoperati, sembrano confermare la
    teoria e permettono di valutare la distribuzione per i parametri delle faglie che
    danno origine ai terremoti nella California.

  19. Adaptive divergence in experimental populations of Pseudomonas fluorescens. V. Insight into the niche specialist fuzzy spreader compels revision of the model Pseudomonas radiation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferguson, Gayle C; Bertels, Frederic; Rainey, Paul B

    2013-12-01

    Pseudomonas fluorescens is a model for the study of adaptive radiation. When propagated in a spatially structured environment, the bacterium rapidly diversifies into a range of niche specialist genotypes. Here we present a genetic dissection and phenotypic characterization of the fuzzy spreader (FS) morphotype-a type that arises repeatedly during the course of the P. fluorescens radiation and appears to colonize the bottom of static broth microcosms. The causal mutation is located within gene fuzY (pflu0478)-the fourth gene of the five-gene fuzVWXYZ operon. fuzY encodes a β-glycosyltransferase that is predicted to modify lipopolysaccharide (LPS) O antigens. The effect of the mutation is to cause cell flocculation. Analysis of 92 independent FS genotypes showed each to have arisen as the result of a loss-of-function mutation in fuzY, although different mutations have subtly different phenotypic and fitness effects. Mutations within fuzY were previously shown to suppress the phenotype of mat-forming wrinkly spreader (WS) types. This prompted a reinvestigation of FS niche preference. Time-lapse photography showed that FS colonizes the meniscus of broth microcosms, forming cellular rafts that, being too flimsy to form a mat, collapse to the vial bottom and then repeatably reform only to collapse. This led to a reassessment of the ecology of the P. fluorescens radiation. Finally, we show that ecological interactions between the three dominant emergent types (smooth, WS, and FS), combined with the interdependence of FS and WS on fuzY, can, at least in part, underpin an evolutionary arms race with bacteriophage SBW25Φ2, to which mutation in fuzY confers resistance. PMID:24077305

  20. 基于生态位适宜度模型的土地利用功能分区%Land-use functional regionalization based on niche-fitness model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    蒙莉娜; 郑新奇; 赵璐; 邓婧

    2011-01-01

    土地利用功能分区是土地利用总体规划中的重要内容.该研究以生态位理论为基础,从生态角度进行土地利用功能分区定量研究.该研究提出了土地利用生态位的概念,并从土地利用需求生态位和现实生态位的耦合关系,构建土地利用生态位适宜度模型,建立土地利用生态位适宜度评价因子体系,并以土地利用生态位适宜度评价结果为表征量,借助GIS技术对土地利用功能进行分区.通过对山东省济南市的案例研究,运用该技术方法进行的土地利用功能分区,结果更加优化和合理,验证了该模型的实用性.该研究从生态适宜角度为土地利用分区的定量化研究提供了新的技术方法.%Land-use regionalization is one of important contents of general land-use planning. Land-use functional regionalization was studied quantitatively based on niche theory in the paper. Firstly, the concept of land-use niche was proposed, and then land-use niche-fitness model was built based on the coupling relationship between requirement niche and realistic niche. Secondly, indices of land-use niche-fitness evaluation were constructed. Finally, taking the result of land-use niche-fitness evaluation as a criterion, land-use was regionalized based on GIS. Taking Jinan City as a study area, the results showed that the regionalization project was optimal and reasonable, andthe practicality of the model was verified. This work can provide a new technique for the similar research of land-use regionalization from a view of niche-fitness.

  1. Environmental Niche Modelling of Phlebotomine Sand Flies and Cutaneous Leishmaniasis Identifies Lutzomyia intermedia as the Main Vector Species in Southeastern Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meneguzzi, Viviane Coutinho; dos Santos, Claudiney Biral; Leite, Gustavo Rocha; Fux, Blima; Falqueto, Aloísio

    2016-01-01

    Cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) is caused by a protozoan of the genus Leishmania and is transmitted by sand flies. The state of Espírito Santo (ES), an endemic area in southeast Brazil, has shown a considerably high prevalence in recent decades. Environmental niche modelling (ENM) is a useful tool for predicting potential disease risk. In this study, ENM was applied to sand fly species and CL cases in ES to identify the principal vector and risk areas of the disease. Sand flies were collected in 466 rural localities between 1997 and 2013 using active and passive capture. Insects were identified to the species level, and the localities were georeferenced. Twenty-one bioclimatic variables were selected from WorldClim. Maxent was used to construct models projecting the potential distribution for five Lutzomyia species and CL cases. ENMTools was used to overlap the species and the CL case models. The Kruskal–Wallis test was performed, adopting a 5% significance level. Approximately 250,000 specimens were captured, belonging to 43 species. The area under the curve (AUC) was considered acceptable for all models. The slope was considered relevant to the construction of the models for all the species identified. The overlay test identified Lutzomyia intermedia as the main vector of CL in southeast Brazil. ENM tools enable an analysis of the association among environmental variables, vector distributions and CL cases, which can be used to support epidemiologic and entomological vigilance actions to control the expansion of CL in vulnerable areas. PMID:27783641

  2. Niche Formation in the Mashup Ecosystem

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael Weiss

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Mashups enable end-users to "mix and match" data and services available on the web to create applications. Their creation is supported by a complex ecosystem of i data providers who offer open APIs to users, ii users who combine APIs into mashups, and iii platforms, such as the ProgrammableWeb or Mashape, that facilitate the construction and publication of mashups. In this article, we argue that the evolution of the mashup ecosystem can be explained in terms of ecosystem niches anchored around hub or keystone APIs. The members of a niche are focused on an area of specialization (e.g., mapping applications and contribute their knowledge to the value proposition of the ecosystem as a whole. To demonstrate the formation of niches in the mashup ecosystem, we model groups of related mashups as species, and we reconstruct the evolution of mashup species through phylogenetic analysis.

  3. Development of a State-Wide 3-D Seismic Tomography Velocity Model for California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thurber, C. H.; Lin, G.; Zhang, H.; Hauksson, E.; Shearer, P.; Waldhauser, F.; Hardebeck, J.; Brocher, T.

    2007-12-01

    We report on progress towards the development of a state-wide tomographic model of the P-wave velocity for the crust and uppermost mantle of California. The dataset combines first arrival times from earthquakes and quarry blasts recorded on regional network stations and travel times of first arrivals from explosions and airguns recorded on profile receivers and network stations. The principal active-source datasets are Geysers-San Pablo Bay, Imperial Valley, Livermore, W. Mojave, Gilroy-Coyote Lake, Shasta region, Great Valley, Morro Bay, Mono Craters-Long Valley, PACE, S. Sierras, LARSE 1 and 2, Loma Prieta, BASIX, San Francisco Peninsula and Parkfield. Our beta-version model is coarse (uniform 30 km horizontal and variable vertical gridding) but is able to image the principal features in previous separate regional models for northern and southern California, such as the high-velocity subducting Gorda Plate, upper to middle crustal velocity highs beneath the Sierra Nevada and much of the Coast Ranges, the deep low-velocity basins of the Great Valley, Ventura, and Los Angeles, and a high- velocity body in the lower crust underlying the Great Valley. The new state-wide model has improved areal coverage compared to the previous models, and extends to greater depth due to the data at large epicentral distances. We plan a series of steps to improve the model. We are enlarging and calibrating the active-source dataset as we obtain additional picks from investigators and perform quality control analyses on the existing and new picks. We will also be adding data from more quarry blasts, mainly in northern California, following an identification and calibration procedure similar to Lin et al. (2006). Composite event construction (Lin et al., in press) will be carried out for northern California for use in conventional tomography. A major contribution of the state-wide model is the identification of earthquakes yielding arrival times at both the Northern California Seismic

  4. Why CMIP5 models projected precipitation changes over California are uncertain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Polade, S. D.; Gershunov, A.; Pierce, D. W.; Cayan, D. R.; Dettinger, M. D.

    2014-12-01

    Future planning for adaptation to and mitigation of the impacts of anthropogenic climatic changes depends mainly on the robustness of climate-model projections. California is one of the global regions where CMIP5 models projections for end-of-century precipitation changes are most uncertain. However, over other mediterranean-climate regions the same models robustly project drier futures. Here we investigate wintertime precipitation projections by the end of the century from 30 CMIP5 models over the five global mediterranean regions (California, South America, the Mediterranean basin, South Africa, and Australia) to disentangle the causes of uncertainty in projections over California. Our findings reveal that the projections of increases in wintertime precipitation over California by two thirds of the models are mainly driven by a comparably weaker increase in the frequency of dry days and a stronger increase in the frequency of heavy precipitation events (99th percentile) along with an increase in the intensity of moderate precipitating events (50-75th percentile) compared to the other mediterranean regions. California is projected to have 5-7 dry days and one more once in year heavy precipitation events in ensemble mean per year. The significant increases in the frequency of heavy events and weak increase in dry days' frequency are mostly attributed to the intensification of the north Pacific low-pressure system along with the strengthening of the sub tropical jet stream. The uniqueness of California's circulation change compared to other mediterranean regions is partially due to the modulation of the large-scale circulation by the low frequency Pacific climate variability.

  5. Evidence of climatic niche shift during biological invasion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Broennimann, O; Treier, U A; Müller-Schärer, H; Thuiller, W; Peterson, A T; Guisan, A

    2007-08-01

    Niche-based models calibrated in the native range by relating species observations to climatic variables are commonly used to predict the potential spatial extent of species' invasion. This climate matching approach relies on the assumption that invasive species conserve their climatic niche in the invaded ranges. We test this assumption by analysing the climatic niche spaces of Spotted Knapweed in western North America and Europe. We show with robust cross-continental data that a shift of the observed climatic niche occurred between native and non-native ranges, providing the first empirical evidence that an invasive species can occupy climatically distinct niche spaces following its introduction into a new area. The models fail to predict the current invaded distribution, but correctly predict areas of introduction. Climate matching is thus a useful approach to identify areas at risk of introduction and establishment of newly or not-yet-introduced neophytes, but may not predict the full extent of invasions. PMID:17594425

  6. Evidence of climatic niche shift during biological invasion

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Broennimann, O.; Treier, Urs; Müller-Schärer, H.;

    2007-01-01

    Niche-based models calibrated in the native range by relating species observations to climatic variables are commonly used to predict the potential spatial extent of species' invasion. This climate matching approach relies on the assumption that invasive species conserve their climatic niche...... evidence that an invasive species can occupy climatically distinct niche spaces following its introduction into a new area. The models fail to predict the current invaded distribution, but correctly predict areas of introduction. Climate matching is thus a useful approach to identify areas at risk...... in the invaded ranges. We test this assumption by analysing the climatic niche spaces of Spotted Knapweed in western North America and Europe. We show with robust cross-continental data that a shift of the observed climatic niche occurred between native and non-native ranges, providing the first empirical...

  7. The Fluctuation Niche in Plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Classical approaches to niche in coexisting plants have undervalued temporal fluctuations. We propose that fluctuation niche is an important dimension of the total niche and interacts with habitat and life-history niches to provide a better understanding of the multidimensional niche space where ecological interactions occur. To scale a fluctuation niche, it is necessary to relate environmental constrictions or species performance not only to the absolute values of the usual environmental and eco physiological variables but also to their variances or other measures of variability. We use Mediterranean plant communities as examples, because they present characteristic large seasonal and inter annual fluctuations in water and nutrient availabilities, along an episodic-constant gradient, and because the plant responses include a number of syndromes coupled to this gradient.

  8. Regionalizing High-standard Prime Farmland Based on Niche-fitness Suitability Model with Potential Construction%县域高标准基本农田建设潜力分区研究

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    郭凤玉; 马立军

    2014-01-01

    以生态位理论为基础,从生态位角度对高标准基本农田建设潜力进行定量研究。以河北省卢龙县为例,分析高标准基本农田建设需求生态位和现实生态位的耦合关系,从耕地的自然禀赋条件、基础设施与施工条件、立地条件3方面选取12个指标,构建高标准基本农田建设生态位适宜度模型,并借助GIS技术,对县域高标准基本农田建设进行潜力分区。%Based on niche theory. The potential construction of high-standard prime farmland in the aspect of ecology was studied. Taking Lulong County in Hebei Province as an example, the coupling relationship between construction niche and realistic niche was analyzed. A model of high-standard prime farmland construction niche with 12 indexes from 3 aspects with natural endowments of farmland, infrastructure and construction, and site condition was established. The county area was regionalized using GIS.

  9. Genetic diversity and ecological niche modelling of wild barley: refugia, large-scale post-LGM range expansion and limited mid-future climate threats?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joanne Russell

    Full Text Available Describing genetic diversity in wild barley (Hordeum vulgare ssp. spontaneum in geographic and environmental space in the context of current, past and potential future climates is important for conservation and for breeding the domesticated crop (Hordeum vulgare ssp. vulgare. Spatial genetic diversity in wild barley was revealed by both nuclear- (2,505 SNP, 24 nSSR and chloroplast-derived (5 cpSSR markers in 256 widely-sampled geo-referenced accessions. Results were compared with MaxEnt-modelled geographic distributions under current, past (Last Glacial Maximum, LGM and mid-term future (anthropogenic scenario A2, the 2080s climates. Comparisons suggest large-scale post-LGM range expansion in Central Asia and relatively small, but statistically significant, reductions in range-wide genetic diversity under future climate. Our analyses support the utility of ecological niche modelling for locating genetic diversity hotspots and determine priority geographic areas for wild barley conservation under anthropogenic climate change. Similar research on other cereal crop progenitors could play an important role in tailoring conservation and crop improvement strategies to support future human food security.

  10. Low Frequency Waves Through the Gulf of California: Observations and Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flores-Morales, A. L.; Pares-Sierra, A.

    2007-05-01

    Long time series of sea surface temperature and surface height along the Mexican Pacific coast show that propagating coastal Kelvin waves, some cases propagate to the interior of the Gulf of California, while in some other cases they completely skip the gulf and the waves propagate through the gulf mouth to the western side of the peninsula de Baja California and to the north. Using satellite observations to identified events and a combination of numerical (ROMS) and analytical model, we investigate this phenomena focusing on discerning the set of conditions (mainly intensity and frequency of the waves) that determine which of these two main outcomes develops. Preliminary results are presented.

  11. A seamless, high-resolution digital elevation model (DEM) of the north-central California coast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foxgrover, Amy C.; Barnard, Patrick L.

    2012-01-01

    A seamless, 2-meter resolution digital elevation model (DEM) of the north-central California coast has been created from the most recent high-resolution bathymetric and topographic datasets available. The DEM extends approximately 150 kilometers along the California coastline, from Half Moon Bay north to Bodega Head. Coverage extends inland to an elevation of +20 meters and offshore to at least the 3 nautical mile limit of state waters. This report describes the procedures of DEM construction, details the input data sources, and provides the DEM for download in both ESRI Arc ASCII and GeoTIFF file formats with accompanying metadata.

  12. The Co-opetition Model of International Shipping Hubs Based on Resource Niche Theory%基于资源位理论的国际航运中心合作竞争模型

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    郭敏辉; 蔡存强

    2011-01-01

    An International shipping hub is a shipping resource allocation center in nature. Shipping hubs' co-opeti-tion strategies under different resource niches play a key role for their developments. Michael Porter Diamond Model is applied to analyze international shipping resource allocation and the characteristics of all elements that determine the competitive power of shipping hubs. Based on their different inherent features, international shipping resources are divided into three categories: physical resource niche; soft resource niche and intermediary resource niche. It is found that since allocation modes of hard resource niche and soft resource niche of hubs are different, accordingly, the co-opetition strategies of shipping hubs should be different. The study of the co-opetition models of different shipping resource niches and the possible results could be a valuable strategic guideline for the establishment of Shanghai shipping hub.%国际航运中心的本质是航运资源配置中心,各航运中心在不同资源位领域的竞争合作关系,是其深层次发展的关键.通过将波特钻石理论应用于国际航运中心资源位要素模型的构建,系统分析了决定航运中心竞争力的各要素特征.根据其不同的本质特性,将航运资源分为硬资源位、中间资源位和软资源位.研究发现,航运硬资源位和软资源位配置的模式不同,对应各航运中心间的合作竞争策略也不同.对不同资源位领域各航运中心的合作竞争模型及可能结果的研究成果,可对上海国际航运中心的建设发展提供理论指导.

  13. California Bilingual Special Education Model Sites (1984-1986): Programs and Research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Echevarria-Ratleff, Jana; Graf, Victoria L.

    The paper, originally given at a 1986 Ethnic and Multicultural Symposium, reports the findings of school-based research in California to identify effective bilingual special education programs and instructional practices. The educational program at one model site (Azusa Unified School District) is described including the elementary school…

  14. Modeling and Optimization of Seawater Intrusion Barriers in Southern California Coastal Plain

    OpenAIRE

    Yeh, William W-G.; Bray, Ben

    2006-01-01

    A five-layered confined-unconfined flow and transport models are developed and calibrated for the Alamitos seawater intrusion barrier in Southern California. The conceptual model is based on the geological structure of the coastal aquifer system, and the key parameters in the flow and transport models are calibrated using field measurements of hydraulic conductivity as well as head and concentration observations. Because of the abundance of point measurements of hydraulic conductivity, the he...

  15. Circumbinary Habitability Niches

    CERN Document Server

    Mason, Paul A; Cuartas-Restrepo, Pablo A; Clark, Joni M

    2014-01-01

    Binaries could provide the best niches for life in the galaxy. Though counterintuitive, this assertion follows directly from stellar tidal interaction theory and the evolution of lower mass stars. There is strong evidence that chromospheric activity of rapidly rotating young stars may be high enough to cause mass loss from atmospheres of potentially habitable planets. The removal of atmospheric water is most critical. Tidal breaking in binaries could help reduce magnetic dynamo action and thereby chromospheric activity in favor of life. We call this the Binary Habitability Mechanism (BHM), that we suggest allows for water retention at levels comparable to or better than Earth. We discuss novel advantages that life may exploit, in these cases, and suggest that life may even thrive on some circumbinary planets. We find that while many binaries do not benefit from BHM, high quality niches do exist for various combinations of stars between 0.55 and 1.0 solar masses. For a given pair of stellar masses, BHM operate...

  16. Activity Response to Climate Seasonality in Species with Fossorial Habits: A Niche Modeling Approach Using the Lowland Burrowing Treefrog (Smilisca fodiens)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Encarnación-Luévano, Alondra; Rojas-Soto, Octavio R.; Sigala-Rodríguez, J. Jesús

    2013-01-01

    The importance of climatic conditions in shaping the geographic distribution of amphibian species is mainly associated to their high sensitivity to environmental conditions. How they cope with climate gradients through behavioral adaptations throughout their distribution is an important issue due to the ecological and evolutionary implications for population viability. Given their low dispersal abilities, the response to seasonal climate changes may not be migration, but behavioral and physiological adaptations. Here we tested whether shifts in climatic seasonality can predict the temporal variation of surface activity of the fossorial Lowland Burrowing Treefrog (Smilisca fodiens) across its geographical distribution. We employed Ecological Niche Modeling (ENM) to perform a monthly analysis of spatial variation of suitable climatic conditions (defined by the July conditions, the month of greatest activity), and then evaluated the geographical correspondence of monthly projections with the occurrence data per month. We found that the species activity, based on the species' occurrence data, corresponds with the latitudinal variation of suitable climatic conditions. Due to the behavioral response of this fossorial frog to seasonal climate variation, we suggest that precipitation and temperature have played a major role in the definition of geographical and temporal distribution patterns, as well as in shaping behavioral adaptations to local climatic conditions. This highlights the influence of macroclimate on shaping activity patterns and the important role of fossorials habits to meet the environmental requirements necessary for survival. PMID:24244301

  17. Molecular phylogeography and ecological niche modelling of a widespread herbaceous climber, Tetrastigma hemsleyanum (Vitaceae): insights into Plio-Pleistocene range dynamics of evergreen forest in subtropical China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yi-Han; Jiang, Wei-Mei; Comes, Hans Peter; Hu, Feng Sheng; Qiu, Ying-Xiong; Fu, Cheng-Xin

    2015-04-01

    Warm-temperate evergreen (WTE) forest represents the typical vegetation type of subtropical China, but how its component species responded to past environmental change remains largely unknown. Here, we reconstruct the evolutionary history of Tetrastigma hemsleyanum, an herbaceous climber restricted to the WTE forest. Twenty populations were genotyped using chloroplast DNA sequences and nuclear microsatellite loci to assess population structure and diversity, supplemented by phylogenetic dating, ancestral area reconstructions and ecological niche modeling (ENM) of the species distributions during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and at present. Lineages in Southwest vs Central-South-East China diverged through climate/tectonic-induced vicariance of an ancestral southern range during the early Pliocene. Long-term stability in the Southwest contrasts with latitudinal range shifts in the Central-South-East region during the early-to-mid-Pleistocene. Genetic and ENM data strongly suggest refugial persistence in situ at the LGM. Pre-Quaternary environmental changes appear to have had a persistent influence on the population genetic structure of this subtropical WTE forest species. Our findings suggest relative demographic stability of this biome in China over the last glacial-interglacial cycle, in contrast with palaeobiome reconstructions showing that this forest biome retreated to areas of today's tropical South China during the LGM. PMID:25639152

  18. Monument og niche

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Juel-Christiansen, Carsten

    2009-01-01

    Introduktion til og uddrag af bogen: Monument og niche : den ny bys arkitektur / af Carsten Juel-Christiansen, 1985......Introduktion til og uddrag af bogen: Monument og niche : den ny bys arkitektur / af Carsten Juel-Christiansen, 1985...

  19. Analysis and modeling of decadal and long-term variability of coastal California summer temperature changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sequera, Pedro

    Summer average daily maximum temperature (Tmax) trends for 1950-2010 were calculated for 241 locations along all of California by use of daily max temperatures from NWS Coop sites to understand the spatial and temporal variabilities of the previously reported summer coastal-cooling. Results show that coastal-cooling appears almost continuously throughout the California coast in locations open to marine air penetrations for the period of 1970-2010. Correlations with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) Index show that coastal-cooling disappears during the increasing PDO period (1950-1985). The most influential factor(s) on California summer coastal temperatures, i.e., Greenhouse Gas (GHG) warming, PDO and changes in Land Cover/Land Use (LCLU), were determined through numerical atmospheric modeling using the Weather Research & Forecasting (WRF) model. Combined results from observations, reanalysis and modeling lead to the conclusion that PDO is the main mechanism of decadal variability of California summer temperatures, dominating over global GHG-warming effects. PDO affects both coastal and inland temperatures by controlling the position and intensity of the two dominating global circulation patterns on California summer: the semi-permanent Pacific High Pressure System and the continental Thermal-Low. Coastal cooling will rise on decreasing PDO periods, where the warming of inland regions and cooling of nearshore Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) results in an increase in sea-breeze activity. Coastal-warming results in increasing periods of the PDO. Global warming induced by GHG and hyper-urbanization were found to be major sources of coastal warming over complete PDO cycles (1950-2010).

  20. The niche of envy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Quintanilla, Laura; Jensen de López, Kristine M.

    2013-01-01

    .g., socio-cultural, psychological, and anthropological research. Finally, in the third section, we introduce a cross-cultural and developmental view of how envy is embodied. We briefly address and offer a critique of Klein’s psychoanalytic view and present recent results from our cross-cultural studies of......Envy is the religion of the mediocre. It comforts them, it responds to the worries that gnaw at them and finally it rots their souls, allowing them to justify their meanings and their greed until they believe these to be virtues.—Carlos Ruiz Zafón “The niche of envy” is a cross-disciplinary attempt...... to capture and understand the complex and self-conscious emotion of envy as unfolded within social relationships and cultural settings. One of our main interests concerns how children come to understand envy in ontogenesis. Accordingly, we review existing theoretical approaches to understanding envy...

  1. Predicting the potential environmental suitability for Theileria orientalis transmission in New Zealand cattle using maximum entropy niche modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lawrence, K E; Summers, S R; Heath, A C G; McFadden, A M J; Pulford, D J; Pomroy, W E

    2016-07-15

    The tick-borne haemoparasite Theileria orientalis is the most important infectious cause of anaemia in New Zealand cattle. Since 2012 a previously unrecorded type, T. orientalis type 2 (Ikeda), has been associated with disease outbreaks of anaemia, lethargy, jaundice and deaths on over 1000 New Zealand cattle farms, with most of the affected farms found in the upper North Island. The aim of this study was to model the relative environmental suitability for T. orientalis transmission throughout New Zealand, to predict the proportion of cattle farms potentially suitable for active T. orientalis infection by region, island and the whole of New Zealand and to estimate the average relative environmental suitability per farm by region, island and the whole of New Zealand. The relative environmental suitability for T. orientalis transmission was estimated using the Maxent (maximum entropy) modelling program. The Maxent model predicted that 99% of North Island cattle farms (n=36,257), 64% South Island cattle farms (n=15,542) and 89% of New Zealand cattle farms overall (n=51,799) could potentially be suitable for T. orientalis transmission. The average relative environmental suitability of T. orientalis transmission at the farm level was 0.34 in the North Island, 0.02 in the South Island and 0.24 overall. The study showed that the potential spatial distribution of T. orientalis environmental suitability was much greater than presumed in the early part of the Theileria associated bovine anaemia (TABA) epidemic. Maximum entropy offers a computer efficient method of modelling the probability of habitat suitability for an arthropod vectored disease. This model could help estimate the boundaries of the endemically stable and endemically unstable areas for T. orientalis transmission within New Zealand and be of considerable value in informing practitioner and farmer biosecurity decisions in these respective areas. PMID:27270395

  2. Impacts of WRF Physics and Measurement Uncertainty on California Wintertime Model Wet Bias

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chin, H S; Caldwell, P M; Bader, D C

    2009-07-22

    The Weather and Research Forecast (WRF) model version 3.0.1 is used to explore California wintertime model wet bias. In this study, two wintertime storms are selected from each of four major types of large-scale conditions; Pineapple Express, El Nino, La Nina, and synoptic cyclones. We test the impacts of several model configurations on precipitation bias through comparison with three sets of gridded surface observations; one from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration, and two variations from the University of Washington (without and with long-term trend adjustment; UW1 and UW2, respectively). To simplify validation, California is divided into 4 regions (Coast, Central Valley, Mountains, and Southern California). Simulations are driven by North American Regional Reanalysis data to minimize large-scale forcing error. Control simulations are conducted with 12-km grid spacing (low resolution) but additional experiments are performed at 2-km (high) resolution to evaluate the robustness of microphysics and cumulus parameterizations to resolution changes. We find that the choice of validation dataset has a significant impact on the model wet bias, and the forecast skill of model precipitation depends strongly on geographic location and storm type. Simulations with right physics options agree better with UW1 observations. In 12-km resolution simulations, the Lin microphysics and the Kain-Fritsch cumulus scheme have better forecast skill in the coastal region while Goddard, Thompson, and Morrison microphysics, and the Grell-Devenyi cumulus scheme perform better in the rest of California. The effect of planetary boundary layer, soil-layer, and radiation physics on model precipitation is weaker than that of microphysics and cumulus processes for short- to medium-range low-resolution simulations. Comparison of 2-km and 12-km resolution runs suggests a need for improvement of cumulus schemes, and supports the use of microphysics schemes in coarser

  3. Energy Use in California Wholesale Water Operations: Development and Application of a General Energy Post-Processor for California Water Management Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bates, Matthew Earl

    This thesis explores the effects of future water and social conditions on energy consumption in the major pumping and generation facilities of California's interconnected water-delivery system, with particular emphasis on the federally owned Central Valley Project, California-owned State Water Project, and the large locally owned systems in Southern California. Anticipated population growth, technological advancement, climatic changes, urban water conservation, and restrictions of through-Delta pumping will together affect the energy used for water operations and alter statewide water deliveries in complex ways that are often opposing and difficult to predict. Flow modeling with detailed statewide water models is necessary, and the CALVIN economic-engineering optimization model of California's interconnected water-delivery system is used to model eight future water-supply scenarios. Model results detail potential water-delivery patterns for the year 2050, but do not explicitly show the energy impacts of the modeled water operations. Energy analysis of flow results is accomplished with the UC Davis General Energy Post-Processor, a new tool for California water models that generalizes previous efforts at energy modeling and extends embedded-energy analysis to additional models and scenarios. Energy-intensity data come from existing energy post-processors for CalSim II and a recent embedded-energy-in-water study prepared by GEI Consultants and Navigant Consulting for the California Public Utilities Commission. Differences in energy consumption are assessed between modeled scenarios, and comparisons are made between data sources, with implications for future water and energy planning strategies and future modeling efforts. Results suggest that the effects of climate warming on water-delivery energy use could be relatively minimal, that the effects of a 50% reduction in Delta exports can be largely offset by 30% urban water conservation, and that a 30% conservation in

  4. Strategic Positioning of Goods in a Market with a Niche

    OpenAIRE

    Eleftherios Zacharias

    2013-01-01

    We use the Hotelling's model allowing for a "gap" in the consumers' preferences. As a result, the characteristics space is divided in two separate intervals. The largest one represents the main market, and the smallest represents a niche. We find that in this set up the principle of maximum differentiation may not hold. We also, examine the incentives of a firm to adopt a niche marketing strategy. That is, to relocate and price its product so that to maximize its profits from the niche market...

  5. Modeling Water and Sediment Quality in Two California Bays

    OpenAIRE

    Stolzenbach, Keith; McWilliams, James

    2002-01-01

    While polluted coastal bays have often been studied observationally, less effort has focused on developing computer models that simulate the processes that disperse, depositand resuspend pollution and contaminants on the seabed. Such models would not only help interpret observational data but would also benefit resource managers charged with upholding state and federal clean water laws.

  6. Exploring climate niches of ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa Douglas ex Lawson) haplotypes in the western United States: Implications for evolutionary history and conservation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shinneman, Douglas; Means, Robert E.; Potter, Kevin M.; Hipkins, Valerie D.

    2016-01-01

    Ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa Douglas ex Lawson) occupies montane environments throughout western North America, where it is both an ecologically and economically important tree species. A recent study using mitochondrial DNA analysis demonstrated substantial genetic variation among ponderosa pine populations in the western U.S., identifying 10 haplotypes with unique evolutionary lineages that generally correspond spatially with distributions of the Pacific (P. p. var. ponderosa) and Rocky Mountain (P. p. var. scopulorum) varieties. To elucidate the role of climate in shaping the phylogeographic history of ponderosa pine, we used nonparametric multiplicative regression to develop predictive climate niche models for two varieties and 10 haplotypes and to hindcast potential distribution of the varieties during the last glacial maximum (LGM), ~22,000 yr BP. Our climate niche models performed well for the varieties, but haplotype models were constrained in some cases by small datasets and unmeasured microclimate influences. The models suggest strong relationships between genetic lineages and climate. Particularly evident was the role of seasonal precipitation balance in most models, with winter- and summer-dominated precipitation regimes strongly associated with P. p. vars. ponderosa and scopulorum, respectively. Indeed, where present-day climate niches overlap between the varieties, introgression of two haplotypes also occurs along a steep clinal divide in western Montana. Reconstructed climate niches for the LGM suggest potentially suitable climate existed for the Pacific variety in the California Floristic province, the Great Basin, and Arizona highlands, while suitable climate for the Rocky Mountain variety may have existed across the southwestern interior highlands. These findings underscore potentially unique phylogeographic origins of modern ponderosa pine evolutionary lineages, including potential adaptations to Pleistocene climates associated with

  7. Exploring Climate Niches of Ponderosa Pine (Pinus ponderosa Douglas ex Lawson) Haplotypes in the Western United States: Implications for Evolutionary History and Conservation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shinneman, Douglas J; Means, Robert E; Potter, Kevin M; Hipkins, Valerie D

    2016-01-01

    Ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa Douglas ex Lawson) occupies montane environments throughout western North America, where it is both an ecologically and economically important tree species. A recent study using mitochondrial DNA analysis demonstrated substantial genetic variation among ponderosa pine populations in the western U.S., identifying 10 haplotypes with unique evolutionary lineages that generally correspond spatially with distributions of the Pacific (P. p. var. ponderosa) and Rocky Mountain (P. p. var. scopulorum) varieties. To elucidate the role of climate in shaping the phylogeographic history of ponderosa pine, we used nonparametric multiplicative regression to develop predictive climate niche models for two varieties and 10 haplotypes and to hindcast potential distribution of the varieties during the last glacial maximum (LGM), ~22,000 yr BP. Our climate niche models performed well for the varieties, but haplotype models were constrained in some cases by small datasets and unmeasured microclimate influences. The models suggest strong relationships between genetic lineages and climate. Particularly evident was the role of seasonal precipitation balance in most models, with winter- and summer-dominated precipitation regimes strongly associated with P. p. vars. ponderosa and scopulorum, respectively. Indeed, where present-day climate niches overlap between the varieties, introgression of two haplotypes also occurs along a steep clinal divide in western Montana. Reconstructed climate niches for the LGM suggest potentially suitable climate existed for the Pacific variety in the California Floristic province, the Great Basin, and Arizona highlands, while suitable climate for the Rocky Mountain variety may have existed across the southwestern interior highlands. These findings underscore potentially unique phylogeographic origins of modern ponderosa pine evolutionary lineages, including potential adaptations to Pleistocene climates associated with discrete

  8. Exploring Climate Niches of Ponderosa Pine (Pinus ponderosa Douglas ex Lawson) Haplotypes in the Western United States: Implications for Evolutionary History and Conservation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shinneman, Douglas J; Means, Robert E; Potter, Kevin M; Hipkins, Valerie D

    2016-01-01

    Ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa Douglas ex Lawson) occupies montane environments throughout western North America, where it is both an ecologically and economically important tree species. A recent study using mitochondrial DNA analysis demonstrated substantial genetic variation among ponderosa pine populations in the western U.S., identifying 10 haplotypes with unique evolutionary lineages that generally correspond spatially with distributions of the Pacific (P. p. var. ponderosa) and Rocky Mountain (P. p. var. scopulorum) varieties. To elucidate the role of climate in shaping the phylogeographic history of ponderosa pine, we used nonparametric multiplicative regression to develop predictive climate niche models for two varieties and 10 haplotypes and to hindcast potential distribution of the varieties during the last glacial maximum (LGM), ~22,000 yr BP. Our climate niche models performed well for the varieties, but haplotype models were constrained in some cases by small datasets and unmeasured microclimate influences. The models suggest strong relationships between genetic lineages and climate. Particularly evident was the role of seasonal precipitation balance in most models, with winter- and summer-dominated precipitation regimes strongly associated with P. p. vars. ponderosa and scopulorum, respectively. Indeed, where present-day climate niches overlap between the varieties, introgression of two haplotypes also occurs along a steep clinal divide in western Montana. Reconstructed climate niches for the LGM suggest potentially suitable climate existed for the Pacific variety in the California Floristic province, the Great Basin, and Arizona highlands, while suitable climate for the Rocky Mountain variety may have existed across the southwestern interior highlands. These findings underscore potentially unique phylogeographic origins of modern ponderosa pine evolutionary lineages, including potential adaptations to Pleistocene climates associated with discrete

  9. Exploring Climate Niches of Ponderosa Pine (Pinus ponderosa Douglas ex Lawson Haplotypes in the Western United States: Implications for Evolutionary History and Conservation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Douglas J Shinneman

    Full Text Available Ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa Douglas ex Lawson occupies montane environments throughout western North America, where it is both an ecologically and economically important tree species. A recent study using mitochondrial DNA analysis demonstrated substantial genetic variation among ponderosa pine populations in the western U.S., identifying 10 haplotypes with unique evolutionary lineages that generally correspond spatially with distributions of the Pacific (P. p. var. ponderosa and Rocky Mountain (P. p. var. scopulorum varieties. To elucidate the role of climate in shaping the phylogeographic history of ponderosa pine, we used nonparametric multiplicative regression to develop predictive climate niche models for two varieties and 10 haplotypes and to hindcast potential distribution of the varieties during the last glacial maximum (LGM, ~22,000 yr BP. Our climate niche models performed well for the varieties, but haplotype models were constrained in some cases by small datasets and unmeasured microclimate influences. The models suggest strong relationships between genetic lineages and climate. Particularly evident was the role of seasonal precipitation balance in most models, with winter- and summer-dominated precipitation regimes strongly associated with P. p. vars. ponderosa and scopulorum, respectively. Indeed, where present-day climate niches overlap between the varieties, introgression of two haplotypes also occurs along a steep clinal divide in western Montana. Reconstructed climate niches for the LGM suggest potentially suitable climate existed for the Pacific variety in the California Floristic province, the Great Basin, and Arizona highlands, while suitable climate for the Rocky Mountain variety may have existed across the southwestern interior highlands. These findings underscore potentially unique phylogeographic origins of modern ponderosa pine evolutionary lineages, including potential adaptations to Pleistocene climates associated

  10. Profound climatic effects on two East Asian black-throated tits (Ave: Aegithalidae, revealed by ecological niche models and phylogeographic analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chuanyin Dai

    Full Text Available Although a number of studies have assessed the effects of geological and climatic changes on species distributions in East Asian, we still have limited knowledge of how these changes have impacted avian species in south-western and southern China. Here, we aim to study paleo-climatic effects on an East Asian bird, two subspecies of black-throated tit (A. c. talifuensis-concinnus with the combined analysis of phylogeography and Ecological Niche Models (ENMs. We sequenced three mitochondrial DNA markers from 32 populations (203 individuals and used phylogenetic inferences to reconstruct the intra-specific relationships among haplotypes. Population genetic analyses were undertaken to gain insight into the demographic history of these populations. We used ENMs to predict the distribution of target species during three periods; last inter-glacial (LIG, last glacial maximum (LGM and present. We found three highly supported, monophyletic MtDNA lineages and different historical demography among lineages in A. c. talifuensis-concinnus. These lineages formed a narrowly circumscribed intra-specific contact zone. The estimated times of lineage divergences were about 2.4 Ma and 0.32 Ma respectively. ENMs predictions were similar between present and LGM but substantially reduced during LIG. ENMs reconstructions and molecular dating suggest that Pleistocene climate changes had triggered and shaped the genetic structure of black-throated tit. Interestingly, in contrast to profound impacts of other glacial cycles, ENMs and phylogeographic analysis suggest that LGM had limited effect on these two subspecies. ENMs also suggest that Pleistocene climatic oscillations enabled the formation of the contact zone and thus support the refuge theory.

  11. Port San Luis, California Coastal Digital Elevation Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — NOAA's National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) is building high-resolution digital elevation models (DEMs) for select U.S. coastal regions. These integrated...

  12. U.S. Coastal Relief Model - Southern California

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — NGDC's U.S. Coastal Relief Model (CRM) provides the first comprehensive view of the U.S. coastal zone integrating offshore bathymetry with land topography into a...

  13. U.S. Coastal Relief Model - Southern California Version 2

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — NGDC's U.S. Coastal Relief Model (CRM) provides a comprehensive view of the U.S. coastal zone integrating offshore bathymetry with land topography into a seamless...

  14. San Francisco Bay, California Coastal Digital Elevation Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — NOAA's National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) is building high-resolution digital elevation models (DEMs) for select U.S. coastal regions. These integrated...

  15. Sustainability of Human Ecological Niche Construction

    OpenAIRE

    Forest Isbell; Michel Loreau

    2014-01-01

    Humans influence and depend on natural systems worldwide, creating complex societal-ecological feedbacks that make it difficult to assess the long-term sustainability of contemporary human activities. We use ecological niche theory to consider the short-term (transient) and long-term (equilibrium) effects of improvements in health, agriculture, or efficiency on the abundances of humans, our plant and animal resources, and our natural enemies. We also consider special cases of our model where ...

  16. Fire risk in San Diego County, California: A weighted Bayesian model approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kolden, Crystal A.; Weigel, Timothy J.

    2007-01-01

    Fire risk models are widely utilized to mitigate wildfire hazards, but models are often based on expert opinions of less understood fire-ignition and spread processes. In this study, we used an empirically derived weights-of-evidence model to assess what factors produce fire ignitions east of San Diego, California. We created and validated a dynamic model of fire-ignition risk based on land characteristics and existing fire-ignition history data, and predicted ignition risk for a future urbanization scenario. We then combined our empirical ignition-risk model with a fuzzy fire behavior-risk model developed by wildfire experts to create a hybrid model of overall fire risk. We found that roads influence fire ignitions and that future growth will increase risk in new rural development areas. We conclude that empirically derived risk models and hybrid models offer an alternative method to assess current and future fire risk based on management actions.

  17. The pitfalls of niche marketing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raynor, M E

    1992-01-01

    Corporate marketers have jumped on the micromarketing bandwagon, but many have discovered that the path to profits contains a number of potholes. This article details three companies' niche marketing mistakes; the author suggests how to avoid them. PMID:10117142

  18. Water-resources optimization model for Santa Barbara, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nishikawa, T.

    1998-01-01

    A simulation-optimization model has been developed for the optimal management of the city of Santa Barbara's water resources during a drought. The model, which links groundwater simulation with linear programming, has a planning horizon of 5 years. The objective is to minimize the cost of water supply subject to: water demand constraints, hydraulic head constraints to control seawater intrusion, and water capacity constraints. The decision variables are montly water deliveries from surface water and groundwater. The state variables are hydraulic heads. The drought of 1947-51 is the city's worst drought on record, and simulated surface-water supplies for this period were used as a basis for testing optimal management of current water resources under drought conditions. The simulation-optimization model was applied using three reservoir operation rules. In addition, the model's sensitivity to demand, carry over [the storage of water in one year for use in the later year(s)], head constraints, and capacity constraints was tested.

  19. 基于GIS和NFM的鄱阳湖地区经济林地的适宜性评价%Niche-Fitness Model into Multi-Suitability Evaluation of Economic Forest Based on GIS in Poyang Lake Region

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    李晋明; 赵小敏; 乐丽红

    2012-01-01

    The paper took forest in Poyang Lake region for case to study the suitability evaluation by introducing the Niche-fitness theory and Kriging method. The weight average model was used to quantitative analysis the niche-fitnesa and restrictive factors for growth of Camellia oleifera and Cunninghamia lanceolata. The results show that the niche-fitness value in the region is in medium and the suitability for growth of economy forests is strong. The ratio of land suitability in grade 1 and 2 for Camellia ohifera planting to forest land is account for 79.51% , grade 2 and 3 for Cunninghamia lanceolata account for 70. 07% . In terms of comprehensive suitability evaluation result, Camellia oleifera suitable area ranks first with the ratio amounting to 71. 23 % . Total phosphorus and organic matter content are the primary limited factors to restrict the economic forest growth in the region. The results can apply to guide economic forestry production, to promote the forest land reasonable utilization and management.

  20. Ecological niche of plant pathogens

    OpenAIRE

    Ecaterina Fodor

    2011-01-01

    Disease ecology is a new approach to the understanding of the spread and dynamics of pathogens in natural and man-made environments. Defining and describing the ecological niche of the pathogens is one of the major tasks for ecological theory, as well as for practitioners preoccupied with the control and forecasting of established and emerging diseases. Niche theory has been periodically revised, not including in an explicit way the pathogens. However, many progresses have been achieved in ni...

  1. 生态位模型的基本原理及其在生物多样性保护中的应用%Ecological niche modeling and its applications in biodiversity conservation

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    朱耿平; 刘国卿; 卜文俊; 高玉葆

    2013-01-01

    生态位模型是利用物种已知的分布数据和相关环境变量,根据一定的算法来推算物种的生态需求,然后将运算结果投射至不同的空间和时间中来预测物种的实际分布和潜在分布.近年来,该类模型被越来越多地应用在入侵生物学、保护生物学、全球气候变化对物种分布影响以及传染病空间传播的研究中.然而,由于生态位模型的理论基础未被深入理解,导致得出入侵物种生态位迁移等不符合实际的结论.作者从生态位与物种分布的关系、生态位模型构建的基本原理以及生态位模型和生态位的关系等方面探讨了生态位模型的理论基础.非生物的气候因素、物种间的相互作用和物种的迁移能力是影响物种分布的3个主要因素,它们在不同的空间尺度下作用于物种的分布.生态位模型是利用物种分布点所关联的环境变量来模拟物种的分布,这些分布点本身关联着该物种和其他物种间的相互作用,因此生态位模型所模拟的是现实生态位(realized niche)或潜在生态位(potential niche),而不是基础生态位(fundamental niche).Grinnell生态位和Elton生态位均在生态位模型中得到反映,这取决于环境变量类型的选择、所采用环境变量的分辨率以及物种自身的迁移能力.生态位模型在生物多样性保护中的应用主要包括物种的生态需求分析、未知物种或种群的探索和发现、自然保护区的选择和设计、物种入侵风险评价、气候变化对物种分布的影响、近缘物种生态位保守性及基于生态位分化的物种界定等方面.%Based on the environmental variables that associated with species' occurrence records, ecological niche modeling (ENM) seeks to characterize environmental conditions suitable for a particular species and then identify where suitable environmental habitats are distributed in the space. Recently, ENM has been used increasingly

  2. Mathematical ground-water model of Indian Wells Valley, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bloyd, R.M.; Robson, S.G.

    1971-01-01

    A mathematical model of the Indian Wells Valley ground-water basin was developed and verified. The alternating-direction implicit method was used to compute the mathematical solution. It was assumed that there are only two aquifers in the valley, one being deep and the other shallow. Where the shallow aquifer occurs, the underlying deep aquifer is confined or artesian. Flow between the aquifers under steady-state conditions is assumed to be in one direction, from deep to shallow. The transmissivity of the deep aquifer ranges from about 250,000 to 22,000 gallons per day per foot and from about 25,000 to 5,000 gallons per day per foot for the shallow aquifer. The storage coefficient for the deep aquifer ranges from 1 x 10 -4 to 0.20. Steady-state recharge and discharge in each aquifer was estimated to be 9,850 acre-feet per year. Ground-water pumping, sewage-effluent recharge, and capture of ground-water discharge occurred under non-steady-state conditions. Most of the ground-water pumpage is near Ridgecrest and Inyokern and in the area between the two towns. By 1968 pumpage in the deep aquifer had caused a reversal in the ground-water gradient south of China Lake and small water-level declines over most of the aquifer. The model for the deep aquifer was verified under steady-state and non-steady-state conditions. The shallow aquifer was verified under steady-state conditions only. The verified model was then used to generate 1983 water-level conditions in the deep aquifer.

  3. Niche conservatism and the future potential range of Epipactis helleborine (Orchidaceae.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marta Kolanowska

    Full Text Available The aim of the present study was to evaluate the current distribution of suitable niches for the invasive orchid species, Epipactis helleborine, and to estimate the possibility of its further expansion. Moreover, niche modeling tools were used to explain its rapid expansion in North America and to test the niche conservatism of the species. The maximum entropy method was used to create models of the suitable niche distribution. A database of E. helleborine localities was prepared based on the examination of herbarium specimens, information from electronic databases as well as data gathered during field works. The differences between the niches occupied by native and invasive populations were evaluated using the niche overlap and niche identity test indexes. Moreover, the coverage of the most suitable habitats for the species was measured for three future scenarios as well as for the present time model. Populations of E. helleborine occupy North American west coast habitats very similar to those preferred by native, Eurasian populations, while the expansion in the east coast is related to the niche shift. The created models of suitable niche distribution indicate that the species does not realize its potential niche in the native range. The total surface of the habitats potentially available for E. helleborine will decrease in all climate change scenarios created for 2080.

  4. Modeling the Dynamic Water Resource Needs of California's Coastal Watersheds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alford, C.

    2009-12-01

    Many watersheds face formidable water supply challenges when it comes to managing water availability to meet diverse water supply and ecosystem management objectives. California’s central coast watersheds are no exception, and both the scarcity of water resources during drier water years and mandates to establish minimum instream flows for salmon habitat have prompted interests in reassessing water management strategies for several of these watersheds. Conventional supply-oriented hydrologic models, however, are not adequate to fully investigate and describe the reciprocal implications of surface water demands for human use and the maintenance of instream flows for salmon habitat that vary both temporally and spatially within a watershed. In an effort to address this issue I developed a coastal watershed management model based on the San Gregorio watershed utilizing the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) system, which permits demand-side prioritization at a time step interval and spatial resolution that captures functional supply and demand relationships. Physiographic input data such as soil type, land cover, elevation, habitat, and water demand sites were extrapolated at a sub-basin level in a GIS. Time-series climate data were collected and processed utilizing the Berkeley Water Center Data Cube at daily time steps for the period 1952 through September 2009. Recent synoptic flow measurements taken at seven tributary sites during the 2009 water year, water depth measured by pressure transducers at six sites within the watershed from September 2005 through September 2009, and daily gauge records from temporary gauges installed in 1981 were used to assess the hydrologic patterns of sub-basins and supplement historic USGS gauge flow records. Empirical functions were used to describe evapotranspiration, surface runoff, sub-surface runoff, and deep percolation. Initial model simulations carried out under both dry and wet water year scenarios were able to capture

  5. Likelihood- and residual-based evaluation of medium-term earthquake forecast models for California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schneider, Max; Clements, Robert; Rhoades, David; Schorlemmer, Danijel

    2014-09-01

    Seven competing models for forecasting medium-term earthquake rates in California are quantitatively evaluated using the framework of the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP). The model class consists of contrasting versions of the Every Earthquake a Precursor According to Size (EEPAS) and Proximity to Past Earthquakes (PPE) modelling approaches. Models are ranked by their performance on likelihood-based tests, which measure the consistency between a model forecast and observed earthquakes. To directly compare one model against another, we run a classical paired t-test and its non-parametric alternative on an information gain score based on the forecasts. These test scores are complemented by several residual-based methods, which offer detailed spatial information. The experiment period covers 2009 June-2012 September, when California experienced 23 earthquakes above the magnitude threshold. Though all models fail to capture seismicity during an earthquake sequence, spatio-temporal differences between models also emerge. The overall best-performing model has strong time- and magnitude-dependence, weights all earthquakes equally as medium-term precursors of larger events and has a full set of fitted parameters. Models with this time- and magnitude-dependence offer a statistically significant advantage over simpler baseline models. In addition, models that down-weight aftershocks when forecasting larger events have a desirable feature in that they do not overpredict following an observed earthquake sequence. This tendency towards overprediction differs between the simpler model, which is based on fewer parameters, and more complex models that include more parameters.

  6. A dynamic conduct parameter model of electricity marketer pricing behavior in the California power exchange

    OpenAIRE

    Carol A. Dahl; Tyler Hodge

    2012-01-01

    This paper contains a dynamic conduct parameter model to look at the pricing behavior of five power marketers in the California Power Exchange (CalPX) on daily data for 2000. Only our previous paper Hodge and Dahl (2012) specifically focused on just the electric power marketers. In this paper we compare a dynamic conduct parameter with that of our earlier static model to test whether the static estimates are biased downwards or towards not rejecting the null hypothesis of no market power. We ...

  7. 基于生态位模型的高标准基本农田建设适宜性评价%Suitability evaluation on high quality capital farmland consolidation based on niche-fitness model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    赵素霞; 牛海鹏; 张捍卫; 张合兵; 张小虎

    2016-01-01

    It is China's significant strategic move to carry out rural land consolidation and construct high quality capital farmland on a large scale, which ensures stable yields despite drought or excessive rain. However, the construction project of high quality capital farmland is currently with the lack of scientific instruction in line with local conditions in respect of project site selection and design approach. An empirical research was conducted in Xinzheng City to study suitability evaluation and obstacle indicators of high quality capital farmland. Based on the theory of ecological niche and the construction target of high-quality capital farmland, this paper proposed the very concept of high quality capital farmland niche, and established the index system from the different aspects of natural resource endowment, infrastructure, sustainability of high quality capital farmland and its space stability. Thirteen indicators were selected during the evaluation. Then this paper built the niche-fitness evaluation model. Throughout the evaluation model as well as the matching degree between the actual niche and the first-rate niche, 4 levels were divided to pinpoint the niche of the high quality capital farmland in different regions. The farmland in the first level areas was high quality capital farmland; the farmland in the second level areas needed to be improved; the farmland in the third level needed to be comprehensively renovated; and the farmland in the fourth level was not appropriate for exploitation. This paper clarified the niche of the high quality capital farmland in different regions, took the first-rate niche as the sole criterion to establish the diagnosis model of obstacle indicators, analyzed the restricted degree and diversity of the obstacle indicators, clarified the priority and orientation on capital farmland construction in different regions, and sought countermeasures and valid paths. The results were as follows: 1) 14017.72 hm2 farmland was high

  8. Using High Resolution Model Data to Improve Lightning Forecasts across Southern California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Capps, S. B.; Rolinski, T.

    2014-12-01

    Dry lightning often results in a significant amount of fire starts in areas where the vegetation is dry and continuous. Meteorologists from the USDA Forest Service Predictive Services' program in Riverside, California are tasked to provide southern and central California's fire agencies with fire potential outlooks. Logistic regression equations were developed by these meteorologists several years ago, which forecast probabilities of lightning as well as lightning amounts, out to seven days across southern California. These regression equations were developed using ten years of historical gridded data from the Global Forecast System (GFS) model on a coarse scale (0.5 degree resolution), correlated with historical lightning strike data. These equations do a reasonably good job of capturing a lightning episode (3-5 consecutive days or greater of lightning), but perform poorly regarding more detailed information such as exact location and amounts. It is postulated that the inadequacies in resolving the finer details of episodic lightning events is due to the coarse resolution of the GFS data, along with limited predictors. Stability parameters, such as the Lifted Index (LI), the Total Totals index (TT), Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), along with Precipitable Water (PW) are the only parameters being considered as predictors. It is hypothesized that the statistical forecasts will benefit from higher resolution data both in training and implementing the statistical model. We have dynamically downscaled NCEP FNL (Final) reanalysis data using the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) to 3km spatial and hourly temporal resolution across a decade. This dataset will be used to evaluate the contribution to the success of the statistical model of additional predictors in higher vertical, spatial and temporal resolution. If successful, we will implement an operational dynamically downscaled GFS forecast product to generate predictors for the resulting

  9. Niching method using clustering crowding

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    GUO Guan-qi; GUI Wei-hua; WU Min; YU Shou-yi

    2005-01-01

    This study analyzes drift phenomena of deterministic crowding and probabilistic crowding by using equivalence class model and expectation proportion equations. It is proved that the replacement errors of deterministic crowding cause the population converging to a single individual, thus resulting in premature stagnation or losing optional optima. And probabilistic crowding can maintain equilibrium multiple subpopulations as the population size is adequate large. An improved niching method using clustering crowding is proposed. By analyzing topology of fitness landscape using hill valley function and extending the search space for similarity analysis, clustering crowding determines the locality of search space more accurately, thus greatly decreasing replacement errors of crowding. The integration of deterministic and probabilistic replacement increases the capacity of both parallel local hill climbing and maintaining multiple subpopulations. The experimental results optimizing various multimodal functions show that,the performances of clustering crowding, such as the number of effective peaks maintained, average peak ratio and global optimum ratio are uniformly superior to those of the evolutionary algorithms using fitness sharing, simple deterministic crowding and probabilistic crowding.

  10. Stochastic dynamics of interacting haematopoietic stem cell niche lineages.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tamás Székely

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Since we still know very little about stem cells in their natural environment, it is useful to explore their dynamics through modelling and simulation, as well as experimentally. Most models of stem cell systems are based on deterministic differential equations that ignore the natural heterogeneity of stem cell populations. This is not appropriate at the level of individual cells and niches, when randomness is more likely to affect dynamics. In this paper, we introduce a fast stochastic method for simulating a metapopulation of stem cell niche lineages, that is, many sub-populations that together form a heterogeneous metapopulation, over time. By selecting the common limiting timestep, our method ensures that the entire metapopulation is simulated synchronously. This is important, as it allows us to introduce interactions between separate niche lineages, which would otherwise be impossible. We expand our method to enable the coupling of many lineages into niche groups, where differentiated cells are pooled within each niche group. Using this method, we explore the dynamics of the haematopoietic system from a demand control system perspective. We find that coupling together niche lineages allows the organism to regulate blood cell numbers as closely as possible to the homeostatic optimum. Furthermore, coupled lineages respond better than uncoupled ones to random perturbations, here the loss of some myeloid cells. This could imply that it is advantageous for an organism to connect together its niche lineages into groups. Our results suggest that a potential fruitful empirical direction will be to understand how stem cell descendants communicate with the niche and how cancer may arise as a result of a failure of such communication.

  11. Using seabird habitat modeling to inform marine spatial planning in central California's National Marine Sanctuaries.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jennifer McGowan

    Full Text Available Understanding seabird habitat preferences is critical to future wildlife conservation and threat mitigation in California. The objective of this study was to investigate drivers of seabird habitat selection within the Gulf of the Farallones and Cordell Bank National Marine Sanctuaries to identify areas for targeted conservation planning. We used seabird abundance data collected by the Applied California Current Ecosystem Studies Program (ACCESS from 2004-2011. We used zero-inflated negative binomial regression to model species abundance and distribution as a function of near surface ocean water properties, distances to geographic features and oceanographic climate indices to identify patterns in foraging habitat selection. We evaluated seasonal, inter-annual and species-specific variability of at-sea distributions for the five most abundant seabirds nesting on the Farallon Islands: western gull (Larus occidentalis, common murre (Uria aalge, Cassin's auklet (Ptychorampus aleuticus, rhinoceros auklet (Cerorhinca monocerata and Brandt's cormorant (Phalacrocorax penicillatus. The waters in the vicinity of Cordell Bank and the continental shelf east of the Farallon Islands emerged as persistent and highly selected foraging areas across all species. Further, we conducted a spatial prioritization exercise to optimize seabird conservation areas with and without considering impacts of current human activities. We explored three conservation scenarios where 10, 30 and 50 percent of highly selected, species-specific foraging areas would be conserved. We compared and contrasted results in relation to existing marine protected areas (MPAs and the future alternative energy footprint identified by the California Ocean Uses Atlas. Our results show that the majority of highly selected seabird habitat lies outside of state MPAs where threats from shipping, oil spills, and offshore energy development remain. This analysis accentuates the need for innovative marine

  12. Photochemical modeling in California with two chemical mechanisms: model intercomparison and response to emission reductions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cai, Chenxia; Kelly, James T; Avise, Jeremy C; Kaduwela, Ajith P; Stockwell, William R

    2011-05-01

    An updated version of the Statewide Air Pollution Research Center (SAPRC) chemical mechanism (SAPRC07C) was implemented into the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) version 4.6. CMAQ simulations using SAPRC07C and the previously released version, SAPRC99, were performed and compared for an episode during July-August, 2000. Ozone (O3) predictions of the SAPRC07C simulation are generally lower than those of the SAPRC99 simulation in the key areas of central and southern California, especially in areas where modeled concentrations are greater than the federal 8-hr O3 standard of 75 parts per billion (ppb) and/or when the volatile organic compound (VOC)/nitrogen oxides (NOx) ratio is less than 13. The relative changes of ozone production efficiency (OPE) against the VOC/NOx ratio at 46 sites indicate that the OPE is reduced in SAPRC07C compared with SAPRC99 at most sites by as much as approximately 22%. The SAPRC99 and SAPRC07C mechanisms respond similarly to 20% reductions in anthropogenic VOC emissions. The response of the mechanisms to 20% NOx emissions reductions can be grouped into three cases. In case 1, in which both mechanisms show a decrease in daily maximum 8-hr O3 concentration with decreasing NOx emissions, the O3 decrease in SAPRC07C is smaller. In case 2, in which both mechanisms show an increase in O3 with decreasing NOx emissions, the O3 increase is larger in SAPRC07C. In case 3, SAPRC07C simulates an increase in O3 in response to reduced NOx emissions whereas SAPRC99 simulates a decrease in O3 for the same region. As a result, the areas where NOx controls would be disbeneficial are spatially expanded in SAPRC07C. Although the results presented here are valuable for understanding differences in predictions and model response for SAPRC99 and SAPRC07C, the study did not evaluate the impact of mechanism differences in the context of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's guidance for using numerical models in demonstrating air quality attainment

  13. Photochemical modeling in California with two chemical mechanisms: model intercomparison and response to emission reductions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cai, Chenxia; Kelly, James T; Avise, Jeremy C; Kaduwela, Ajith P; Stockwell, William R

    2011-05-01

    An updated version of the Statewide Air Pollution Research Center (SAPRC) chemical mechanism (SAPRC07C) was implemented into the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) version 4.6. CMAQ simulations using SAPRC07C and the previously released version, SAPRC99, were performed and compared for an episode during July-August, 2000. Ozone (O3) predictions of the SAPRC07C simulation are generally lower than those of the SAPRC99 simulation in the key areas of central and southern California, especially in areas where modeled concentrations are greater than the federal 8-hr O3 standard of 75 parts per billion (ppb) and/or when the volatile organic compound (VOC)/nitrogen oxides (NOx) ratio is less than 13. The relative changes of ozone production efficiency (OPE) against the VOC/NOx ratio at 46 sites indicate that the OPE is reduced in SAPRC07C compared with SAPRC99 at most sites by as much as approximately 22%. The SAPRC99 and SAPRC07C mechanisms respond similarly to 20% reductions in anthropogenic VOC emissions. The response of the mechanisms to 20% NOx emissions reductions can be grouped into three cases. In case 1, in which both mechanisms show a decrease in daily maximum 8-hr O3 concentration with decreasing NOx emissions, the O3 decrease in SAPRC07C is smaller. In case 2, in which both mechanisms show an increase in O3 with decreasing NOx emissions, the O3 increase is larger in SAPRC07C. In case 3, SAPRC07C simulates an increase in O3 in response to reduced NOx emissions whereas SAPRC99 simulates a decrease in O3 for the same region. As a result, the areas where NOx controls would be disbeneficial are spatially expanded in SAPRC07C. Although the results presented here are valuable for understanding differences in predictions and model response for SAPRC99 and SAPRC07C, the study did not evaluate the impact of mechanism differences in the context of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's guidance for using numerical models in demonstrating air quality attainment

  14. Mammalian niche conservation through deep time.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Larisa R G DeSantis

    Full Text Available Climate change alters species distributions, causing plants and animals to move north or to higher elevations with current warming. Bioclimatic models predict species distributions based on extant realized niches and assume niche conservation. Here, we evaluate if proxies for niches (i.e., range areas are conserved at the family level through deep time, from the Eocene to the Pleistocene. We analyze the occurrence of all mammalian families in the continental USA, calculating range area, percent range area occupied, range area rank, and range polygon centroids during each epoch. Percent range area occupied significantly increases from the Oligocene to the Miocene and again from the Pliocene to the Pleistocene; however, mammalian families maintain statistical concordance between rank orders across time. Families with greater taxonomic diversity occupy a greater percent of available range area during each epoch and net changes in taxonomic diversity are significantly positively related to changes in percent range area occupied from the Eocene to the Pleistocene. Furthermore, gains and losses in generic and species diversity are remarkably consistent with ~2.3 species gained per generic increase. Centroids demonstrate southeastern shifts from the Eocene through the Pleistocene that may correspond to major environmental events and/or climate changes during the Cenozoic. These results demonstrate range conservation at the family level and support the idea that niche conservation at higher taxonomic levels operates over deep time and may be controlled by life history traits. Furthermore, families containing megafauna and/or terminal Pleistocene extinction victims do not incur significantly greater declines in range area rank than families containing only smaller taxa and/or only survivors, from the Pliocene to Pleistocene. Collectively, these data evince the resilience of families to climate and/or environmental change in deep time, the absence of

  15. Tectonoestratigraphic and Thermal Models of the Tiburon and Wagner Basins, northern Gulf of California Rift System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Contreras, J.; Ramirez Zerpa, N. A.; Negrete-Aranda, R.

    2014-12-01

    The northern Gulf of California Rift System consist sofa series faults that accommodate both normal and strike-slip motion. The faults formed a series of half-greens filled with more than 7 km of siliciclastic suc­cessions. Here, we present tectonostratigraphic and heat flow models for the Tiburón basin, in the southern part of the system, and the Wag­ner basin in the north. The models are constrained by two-dimensional seis­mic lines and by two deep boreholes drilled by PEMEX­-PEP. Analysis of the seismic lines and models' results show that: (i) subsidence of the basins is controlled by high-angle normal faults and by flow of the lower crust, (ii) basins share a common history, and (iii) there are significant differences in the way brittle strain was partitioned in the basins, a feature frequently observed in rift basins. On one hand, the bounding faults of the Tiburón basin have a nested geometry and became active following a west-to-east sequence of activation. The Tiburon half-graben was formed by two pulses of fault activity. One took place during the protogulf extensional phase in the Miocene and the other during the opening of Gulf of California in the Pleistocene. On the other hand, the Wagner basin is the result of two fault generations. During the late-to middle Miocene, the west-dipping Cerro Prieto and San Felipe faults formed a domino array. Then, during the Pleistocene the Consag and Wagner faults dissected the hanging-wall of the Cerro Prieto fault forming the modern Wagner basin. Thermal modeling of the deep borehole temperatures suggests that the heat flow in these basins in the order of 110 mW/m2 which is in agreement with superficial heat flow measurements in the northern Gulf of California Rift System.

  16. Niche conservatism in Gynandropaa frogs on the southeastern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Junhua; Broennimann, Olivier; Guisan, Antoine; Wang, Bin; Huang, Yan; Jiang, Jianping

    2016-01-01

    The role of ecological niche in lineage diversification has been the subject of long-standing interest of ecologists and evolutionary biologists. Gynandropaa frogs diversified into three independent clades endemic to the southeastern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. Here, we address the question whether these clades kept the same niche after separation, and what it tells us about possible diversification processes. We applied predictions in geographical (G)-space and tests of niche conservatism in environmental (E)-space. Niche models in G-space indicate separate regions with high suitability for the different clades, with some potential areas of sympatry. While the pair of central and eastern clades displayed the largest niche overlap for most variables, and strict niche equivalency was rejected for all clade-pairs, we found no strong evidence for niche divergence, but rather the signature of niche conservatism compared to null models in E-space. These results suggest a common ancestral ecological niche, and as such give good support to divergence through allopatric speciation, but alternative explanations are also possible. Our findings illustrate how testing for niche conservatism in lineage diversification can provide insights into underlying speciation processes, and how this information may guide further research and conservation practices, as illustrated here for amphibians on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. PMID:27601098

  17. Probabilistic Modeling for Risk Assessment of California Ground Water Contamination by Pesticides

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clayton, M.; Troiano, J.; Spurlock, F.

    2007-12-01

    The California Department of Pesticide Regulation (DPR) is responsible for the registration of pesticides in California. DPR's Environmental Monitoring Branch evaluates the potential for pesticide active ingredients to move to ground water under legal agricultural use conditions. Previous evaluations were primarily based on threshold values for specific persistence and mobility properties of pesticides as prescribed in the California Pesticide Contamination Prevention Act of 1985. Two limitations identified with that process were the univariate nature where interactions of the properties were not accounted for, and the inability to accommodate multiple values of a physical-chemical property. We addressed these limitations by developing a probabilistic modeling method based on prediction of potential well water concentrations. A mechanistic pesticide transport model, LEACHM, is used to simulate sorption, degradation and transport of a candidate pesticide through the root zone. A second empirical model component then simulates pesticide degradation and transport through the vadose zone to a receiving ground water aquifer. Finally, degradation during transport in the aquifer to the well screen is included in calculating final potential well concentrations. Using Monte Carlo techniques, numerous LEACHM simulations are conducted using random samples of the organic carbon normalized soil adsorption coefficients (Koc) and soil dissipation half-life values derived from terrestrial field dissipation (TFD) studies. Koc and TFD values are obtained from gamma distributions fitted to pooled data from agricultural-use pesticides detected in California ground water: atrazine, simazine, diuron, bromacil, hexazinone, and norflurazon. The distribution of predicted well water concentrations for these pesticides is in good agreement with concentrations measured in domestic wells in coarse, leaching vulnerable soils of Fresno and Tulure Counties. The leaching potential of a new

  18. A Seamless, High-Resolution, Coastal Digital Elevation Model (DEM) for Southern California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnard, Patrick L.; Hoover, Daniel

    2010-01-01

    A seamless, 3-meter digital elevation model (DEM) was constructed for the entire Southern California coastal zone, extending 473 km from Point Conception to the Mexican border. The goal was to integrate the most recent, high-resolution datasets available (for example, Light Detection and Ranging (Lidar) topography, multibeam and single beam sonar bathymetry, and Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (IfSAR) topography) into a continuous surface from at least the 20-m isobath to the 20-m elevation contour. This dataset was produced to provide critical boundary conditions (bathymetry and topography) for a modeling effort designed to predict the impacts of severe winter storms on the Southern California coast (Barnard and others, 2009). The hazards model, run in real-time or with prescribed scenarios, incorporates atmospheric information (wind and pressure fields) with a suite of state-of-the-art physical process models (tide, surge, and wave) to enable detailed prediction of water levels, run-up, wave heights, and currents. Research-grade predictions of coastal flooding, inundation, erosion, and cliff failure are also included. The DEM was constructed to define the general shape of nearshore, beach and cliff surfaces as accurately as possible, with less emphasis on the detailed variations in elevation inland of the coast and on bathymetry inside harbors. As a result this DEM should not be used for navigation purposes.

  19. California--Becoming an Agricultural and Industrial Power. Grade 4 Model Lesson for Unit 3, Standard 4.4. California History-Social Science Course Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freet, Jane; Porter, Priscilla

    This unit focuses on California's growth as an agricultural and industrial power in the 20th century and includes the impact of key people and key historic events. The unit is divided into 4 overlapping topics and should take 10 weeks to implement. Students examine how California became a power by tracing the transformation of the California…

  20. Re-examining "temporal niche".

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smarr, Benjamin L; Schwartz, Michael D; Wotus, Cheryl; de la Iglesia, Horacio O

    2013-07-01

    The circadian system temporally organizes physiology and behavior throughout the 24-h day. At the core of this organization lies a network of multiple circadian oscillators located within the central nervous system as well as in virtually every peripheral organ. These oscillators define a 24-h temporal landscape of mutually interacting circadian rhythms that is known as the temporal niche of a species. This temporal niche is constituted by the collective phases of all biological rhythms emerging from this multi-oscillatory system. We review evidence showing that under different environmental conditions, this system can adopt different harmonic configurations. Thus, the classic chronobiological approach of searching for "the" circadian phase of an animal-typically by studying circadian rhythms of locomotor activity-represents a narrow look into the circadian system of an animal. We propose that the study of hormonal rhythms may lead to a more insightful assessment of a species' temporal niche.

  1. Global climate niche estimates for bioenergy crops and invasive species of agronomic origin: potential problems and opportunities.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jacob N Barney

    Full Text Available The global push towards a more biomass-based energy sector is ramping up efforts to adopt regionally appropriate high-yielding crops. As potential bioenergy crops are being moved around the world an assessment of the climatic suitability would be a prudent first step in identifying suitable areas of productivity and risk. Additionally, this assessment also provides a necessary step in evaluating the invasive potential of bioenergy crops, which present a possible negative externality to the bioeconomy. Therefore, we provide the first global climate niche assessment for the major graminaceous (9, herbaceous (3, and woody (4 bioenergy crops. Additionally, we contrast these with climate niche assessments for North American invasive species that were originally introduced for agronomic purposes as examples of well-intentioned introductions gone awry. With few exceptions (e.g., Saccharum officinarum, Pennisetum purpureum, the bioenergy crops exhibit broad climatic tolerance, which allows tremendous flexibility in choosing crops, especially in areas with high summer rainfall and long growing seasons (e.g., southeastern US, Amazon Basin, eastern Australia. Unsurprisingly, the invasive species of agronomic origin have very similar global climate niche profiles as the proposed bioenergy crops, also demonstrating broad climatic tolerance. The ecoregional evaluation of bioenergy crops and known invasive species demonstrates tremendous overlap at both high (EI≥30 and moderate (EI≥20 climate suitability. The southern and western US ecoregions support the greatest number of invasive species of agronomic origin, especially the Southeastern USA Plains, Mixed Woods Plains, and Mediterranean California. Many regions of the world have a suitable climate for several bioenergy crops allowing selection of agro-ecoregionally appropriate crops. This model knowingly ignores the complex biotic interactions and edaphic conditions, but provides a robust assessment of

  2. Spatially explicit West Nile virus risk modeling in Santa Clara County, California.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Konrad, Sarah K; Miller, Scott N; Reeves, Will K; Tietze, Noor S

    2009-06-01

    A geographic information system model designed to identify regions at risk for West Nile virus (WNV) transmission was calibrated and tested with data collected in Santa Clara County, California. American Crows that died from WNV infection in 2005 provided spatial and temporal ground truth. When the model was run with parameters based on Culex tarsalis infected with the NY99 genotype of the virus, it underestimated WNV occurrence in Santa Clara Co. The parameters were calibrated to fit the field data by reducing the number of degree-days necessary to reach the mosquito's extrinsic incubation period from 109 to 76. The calibration raised model efficiency from 61% to 92% accuracy, and the model performed well the following year in Santa Clara Co.

  3. Analyzing carbon dioxide and methane emissions in California using airborne measurements and model simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, M. S.; Yates, E. L.; Iraci, L. T.; Jeong, S.; Fischer, M. L.

    2013-12-01

    Greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations have increased over the past decades and are linked to global temperature increases and climate change. These changes in climate have been suggested to have varying effects, and uncertain consequences, on agriculture, water supply, weather, sea-level rise, the economy, and energy. To counteract the trend of increasing atmospheric concentrations of GHGs, the state of California has passed the California Global Warming Act of 2006 (AB-32). This requires that by the year 2020, GHG (e.g., carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4)) emissions will be reduced to 1990 levels. To quantify GHG fluxes, emission inventories are routinely compiled for the State of California (e.g., CH4 emissions from the California Greenhouse Gas Emissions Measurement (CALGEM) Project). The major sources of CO2 and CH4 in the state of California are: transportation, electricity production, oil and gas extraction, cement plants, agriculture, landfills/waste, livestock, and wetlands. However, uncertainties remain in these emission inventories because many factors contributing to these processes are poorly quantified. To alleviate these uncertainties, a synergistic approach of applying air-borne measurements and chemical transport modeling (CTM) efforts to provide a method of quantifying local and regional GHG emissions will be performed during this study. Additionally, in order to further understand the temporal and spatial distributions of GHG fluxes in California and the impact these species have on regional climate, CTM simulations of daily variations and seasonality of total column CO2 and CH4 will be analyzed. To assess the magnitude and spatial variation of GHG emissions and to identify local 'hot spots', airborne measurements of CH4 and CO2 were made by the Alpha Jet Atmospheric eXperiment (AJAX) over the San Francisco Bay Area (SFBA) and San Joaquin Valley (SJV) in January and February 2013 during the Discover-AQ-CA study. High mixing ratios of GHGs were

  4. Niche dynamics in the European ranges of two African carnivores reflect their dispersal and demographic histories

    OpenAIRE

    Papes, M.; Cuzin, F; Gaubert, Philippe

    2015-01-01

    According to recent phylogeographical evidence, the common genet (Genetta genetta) and the Egyptian mongoose (Herpestes ichneumon) have dissimilar dispersal histories from Maghreb to south-western Europe. Through comparative ecological niche modelling based on >1100 occurrences, we assessed whether the niche dynamics (i.e. niche shift versus conservatism) of the two species in their European ranges reflected DNA-based demographic scenarios. Sensitivity analyses and projections of climatic nic...

  5. Ontogenetic niche shifts in three Vaccinium species on a sub-alpine mountain side

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Auffret, A.G.; Meineri, E.; Bruun, Hans Henrik;

    2010-01-01

    Background: Climate warming in arctic and alpine regions is expected to result in the altitudinal migration of plant species, but current predictions neglect differences between species' regeneration niche and established niche. Aims: To examine potential recruitment of Vaccinium myrtillus, V...... recruitment in habitats at altitudes above its current populations. Conclusions: The potential for migration exists, but incongruence between regenerative and established niches presents a challenge for colonisers, as well as for plant migration modelling...

  6. Crowdfunding niches? : exploring the potential of crowdfunding for financing renewable energy niches in the Netherlands

    OpenAIRE

    Vasileiadou, E Eleftheria; Huijben, JCCM Boukje; Raven, RPJM Rob

    2014-01-01

    TThere is a huge gap between demand and supply of finance for energy transitions, and the financial and economic crisis have had a negative impact in the already meagre funds for transforming the energy system towards renewable resources. In this paper we explore whether crowdfunding can provide an adequate business model for the creation, nurturing and upscaling of renewable energy niches. We empirically investigate crowdfunding initiatives and platforms linked to renewable electricity proje...

  7. Analyzing Source Apportioned Methane in Northern California During DISCOVER-AQ-CA Using Airborne Measurements and Model Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Matthew S.

    2014-01-01

    This study analyzes source apportioned methane (CH4) emissions and atmospheric concentrations in northern California during the Discover-AQ-CA field campaign using airborne measurement data and model simulations. Source apportioned CH4 emissions from the Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR) version 4.2 were applied in the 3-D chemical transport model GEOS-Chem and analyzed using airborne measurements taken as part of the Alpha Jet Atmospheric eXperiment over the San Francisco Bay Area (SFBA) and northern San Joaquin Valley (SJV). During the time period of the Discover-AQ-CA field campaign EDGAR inventory CH4 emissions were 5.30 Gg/day (Gg 1.0 109 grams) (equating to 1.9 103 Gg/yr) for all of California. According to EDGAR, the SFBA and northern SJV region contributes 30 of total emissions from California. Source apportionment analysis during this study shows that CH4 concentrations over this area of northern California are largely influenced by global emissions from wetlands and local/global emissions from gas and oil production and distribution, waste treatment processes, and livestock management. Model simulations, using EDGAR emissions, suggest that the model under-estimates CH4 concentrations in northern California (average normalized mean bias (NMB) -5 and linear regression slope 0.25). The largest negative biases in the model were calculated on days when hot spots of local emission sources were measured and atmospheric CH4 concentrations reached values 3.0 parts per million (model NMB -10). Sensitivity emission studies conducted during this research suggest that local emissions of CH4 from livestock management processes are likely the primary source of the negative model bias. These results indicate that a variety, and larger quantity, of measurement data needs to be obtained and additional research is necessary to better quantify source apportioned CH4 emissions in California and further the understanding of the physical processes

  8. Regional three-dimensional seismic velocity model of the crust and uppermost mantle of northern California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thurber, C.; Zhang, H.; Brocher, T.; Langenheim, V.

    2009-01-01

    We present a three-dimensional (3D) tomographic model of the P wave velocity (Vp) structure of northern California. We employed a regional-scale double-difference tomography algorithm that incorporates a finite-difference travel time calculator and spatial smoothing constraints. Arrival times from earthquakes and travel times from controlled-source explosions, recorded at network and/or temporary stations, were inverted for Vp on a 3D grid with horizontal node spacing of 10 to 20 km and vertical node spacing of 3 to 8 km. Our model provides an unprecedented, comprehensive view of the regional-scale structure of northern California, putting many previously identified features into a broader regional context and improving the resolution of a number of them and revealing a number of new features, especially in the middle and lower crust, that have never before been reported. Examples of the former include the complex subducting Gorda slab, a steep, deeply penetrating fault beneath the Sacramento River Delta, crustal low-velocity zones beneath Geysers-Clear Lake and Long Valley, and the high-velocity ophiolite body underlying the Great Valley. Examples of the latter include mid-crustal low-velocity zones beneath Mount Shasta and north of Lake Tahoe. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

  9. Research on the Strategic Decision Model of Niches in Business Ecosystems%利基企业的商业生态系统战略决策模型研究

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    杜玉申; 卜丹丹

    2014-01-01

    已有的研究对骨干企业的商业生态系统理论进行了比较深入的讨论,利基企业是生态系统中的大众和价值创造主体,研究其商业生态系统战略不仅具有重要的理论价值,同时也有助于提高初创企业的创业成功率,从而激活国民经济的活力。本文识别出利基企业在商业生态系统中面临着随整个系统灭亡、被核心企业捕食和与其它利基者竞争3种挑战,提出以商业生态系统和生态位评估为基础的利基企业商业生态系统战略决策模型。%Previous studies on business ecosystems have put massive attention to keystones . Niches are mass and main value creators in the ecosystems , so studying its business ecosystem strategy not only has important theoretical value , but also helps improve the success rate of entrepreneurship and activate the prosperity of the national economy . This paper identifies that niches are facing risk of death with the entire system , being preyed by core business and competition with other niches . Based on the assessments of business ecosystems and positions , a strategic decisions model in the context of business ecosystems was recommended .

  10. A NICHE FOR ISOTOPIC ECOLOGY

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fifty years ago, GE Hutchinson defined the ecological niche as a hypervolume in n-dimensional space with environmental variables as axes. Ecologists have recently developed renewed interest in the concept, and technological advances now allow us to use stable isotope analyses to ...

  11. Low-flow transport models for conservative and sorbed solutes; Uvas Creek, near Morgan Hill, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jackman, A.P.; Walters, R.A.; Kennedy, V.C.

    1984-01-01

    Models describing low-flow transport of conservative (nonreactive) and reactive solutes, which adsorb on the streambed, are developed and tested. Temporary storage within the bed plays an important role in solute movement. Three different models of bed-storage processes are developed for conservative solutes. One model assumes the bed is a well-mixed, nondiffusing, nonreacting zone. Solute flux into the bed is then proportional to the difference between stream and bed-solute concentrations. A second model assumes that solute is transported within the bed by a vertical diffusion process. The bed-solute concentration, which matches the stream concentration at the interface, varies with depth in the bed according to Fick 's law. A third model assumes convection in the downstream direction occurs in certain parts of the bed, while the mechanism of the first model functions elsewhere. Storage of absorbing species is assumed to occur by equilibrium adsorption within streambed particles. Uptake rate is described by an intraparticle diffusion process. Model equations were solved using finite element numerical methods. Models were calibrated using data from a 24-hour injection of conservative chloride and adsorptive Sr ions at Uvas Creek near Morgan Hill, California. All models predict well except for some overestimation by the adsorption model during dieaway. (USGS)

  12. The niche construction perspective: a critical appraisal

    OpenAIRE

    Scott-Phillips, Thomas C.; Laland, Kevin N.; Shuker, David M.; Dickins, Thomas E.; West, Stuart A.

    2014-01-01

    Niche construction refers to the activities of organisms that bring about changes in their environments, many of which are evolutionarily and ecologically consequential. Advocates of niche construction theory (NCT) believe that standard evolutionary theory fails to recognize the full importance of niche construction, and consequently propose a novel view of evolution, in which niche construction and its legacy over time (ecological inheritance) are described as evolutionary processes, equival...

  13. The niche construction perspective: a critical appraisal.

    OpenAIRE

    Scott-Phillips, Thomas C.; Laland, Kevin N.; Shuker, David M.; Dickins, Thomas E.; West, Stuart A.

    2014-01-01

    Niche construction refers to the activities of organisms that bring about changes in their environments, many of which are evolutionarily and ecologically consequential. Advocates of niche construction theory (NCT) believe that standard evolutionary theory fails to recognize the full importance of niche construction, and consequently propose a novel view of evolution, in which niche construction and its legacy over time (ecological inheritance) are described as evolutionary processes, equival...

  14. Analyzing source apportioned methane in northern California during Discover-AQ-CA using airborne measurements and model simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Matthew S.; Yates, Emma L.; Iraci, Laura T.; Loewenstein, Max; Tadić, Jovan M.; Wecht, Kevin J.; Jeong, Seongeun; Fischer, Marc L.

    2014-12-01

    This study analyzes source apportioned methane (CH4) emissions and atmospheric mixing ratios in northern California during the Discover-AQ-CA field campaign using airborne measurement data and model simulations. Source apportioned CH4 emissions from the Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR) version 4.2 were applied in the 3-D chemical transport model GEOS-Chem and analyzed using airborne measurements taken as part of the Alpha Jet Atmospheric eXperiment over the San Francisco Bay Area (SFBA) and northern San Joaquin Valley (SJV). During the time period of the Discover-AQ-CA field campaign EDGAR inventory CH4 emissions were ∼5.30 Gg day-1 (Gg = 1.0 × 109 g) (equating to ∼1.90 × 103 Gg yr-1) for all of California. According to EDGAR, the SFBA and northern SJV region contributes ∼30% of total CH4 emissions from California. Source apportionment analysis during this study shows that CH4 mixing ratios over this area of northern California are largely influenced by global emissions from wetlands and local/global emissions from gas and oil production and distribution, waste treatment processes, and livestock management. Model simulations, using EDGAR emissions, suggest that the model under-estimates CH4 mixing ratios in northern California (average normalized mean bias (NMB) = -5.2% and linear regression slope = 0.20). The largest negative biases in the model were calculated on days when large amounts of CH4 were measured over local emission sources and atmospheric CH4 mixing ratios reached values >2.5 parts per million. Sensitivity emission studies conducted during this research suggest that local emissions of CH4 from livestock management processes are likely the primary source of the negative model bias. These results indicate that a variety, and larger quantity, of measurement data needs to be obtained and additional research is necessary to better quantify source apportioned CH4 emissions in California.

  15. Construction of 3-D geologic framework and textural models for Cuyama Valley groundwater basin, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sweetkind, Donald S.; Faunt, Claudia C.; Hanson, Randall T.

    2013-01-01

    Groundwater is the sole source of water supply in Cuyama Valley, a rural agricultural area in Santa Barbara County, California, in the southeasternmost part of the Coast Ranges of California. Continued groundwater withdrawals and associated water-resource management concerns have prompted an evaluation of the hydrogeology and water availability for the Cuyama Valley groundwater basin by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Water Agency Division of the Santa Barbara County Department of Public Works. As a part of the overall groundwater evaluation, this report documents the construction of a digital three-dimensional geologic framework model of the groundwater basin suitable for use within a numerical hydrologic-flow model. The report also includes an analysis of the spatial variability of lithology and grain size, which forms the geologic basis for estimating aquifer hydraulic properties. The geologic framework was constructed as a digital representation of the interpreted geometry and thickness of the principal stratigraphic units within the Cuyama Valley groundwater basin, which include younger alluvium, older alluvium, and the Morales Formation, and underlying consolidated bedrock. The framework model was constructed by creating gridded surfaces representing the altitude of the top of each stratigraphic unit from various input data, including lithologic and electric logs from oil and gas wells and water wells, cross sections, and geologic maps. Sediment grain-size data were analyzed in both two and three dimensions to help define textural variations in the Cuyama Valley groundwater basin and identify areas with similar geologic materials that potentially have fairly uniform hydraulic properties. Sediment grain size was used to construct three-dimensional textural models that employed simple interpolation between drill holes and two-dimensional textural models for each stratigraphic unit that incorporated spatial structure of the textural data.

  16. Using Google Earth to Explore Strain Rate Models of Southern California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richard, G. A.; Bell, E. A.; Holt, W. E.

    2007-12-01

    A series of strain rate models for the Transverse Ranges of southern California were developed based on Quaternary fault slip data and geodetic data from high precision GPS stations in southern California. Pacific-North America velocity boundary conditions are applied for all models. Topography changes are calculated using the model dilatation rates, which predict crustal thickness changes under the assumption of Airy isostasy and a specified rate of crustal volume loss through erosion. The models were designed to produce graphical and numerical output representing the configuration of the region from 3 million years ago to 3 million years into the future at intervals of 50 thousand years. Using a North American reference frame, graphical output for the topography and faults and numerical output for locations of faults and points on the crust marked by the locations on cities were used to create data in KML format that can be used in Google Earth to represent time intervals of 50 thousand years. As markers familiar to students, the cities provide a geographic context that can be used to quantify crustal movement, using the Google Earth ruler tool. By comparing distances that markers for selected cities have moved in various parts of the region, students discover that the greatest amount of crustal deformation has occurred in the vicinity of the boundary between the North American and Pacific plates. Students can also identify areas of compression or extension by finding pairs of city markers that have converged or diverged, respectively, over time. The Google Earth layers also reveal that faults that are not parallel to the plate boundary have tended to rotate clockwise due to the right lateral motion along the plate boundary zone. KML TimeSpan markup was added to two versions of the model, enabling the layers to be displayed in an automatic sequenced loop for a movie effect. The data is also available as QuickTime (.mov) and Graphics Interchange Format (.gif

  17. Evaluation of regional isoprene emission factors and modeled fluxes in California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Misztal, Pawel K.; Avise, Jeremy C.; Karl, Thomas; Scott, Klaus; Jonsson, Haflidi H.; Guenther, Alex B.; Goldstein, Allen H.

    2016-08-01

    Accurately modeled biogenic volatile organic compound (BVOC) emissions are an essential input to atmospheric chemistry simulations of ozone and particle formation. BVOC emission models rely on basal emission factor (BEF) distribution maps based on emission measurements and vegetation land-cover data but these critical input components of the models as well as model simulations lack validation by regional scale measurements. We directly assess isoprene emission-factor distribution databases for BVOC emission models by deriving BEFs from direct airborne eddy covariance (AEC) fluxes (Misztal et al., 2014) scaled to the surface and normalized by the activity factor of the Guenther et al. (2006) algorithm. The available airborne BEF data from approx. 10 000 km of flight tracks over California were averaged spatially over 48 defined ecological zones called ecoregions. Consistently, BEFs used by three different emission models were averaged over the same ecoregions for quantitative evaluation. Ecoregion-averaged BEFs from the most current land cover used by the Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature (MEGAN) v.2.1 resulted in the best agreement among the tested land covers and agreed within 10 % with BEFs inferred from measurement. However, the correlation was sensitive to a few discrepancies (either overestimation or underestimation) in those ecoregions where land-cover BEFs are less accurate or less representative for the flight track. The two other land covers demonstrated similar agreement (within 30 % of measurements) for total average BEF across all tested ecoregions but there were a larger number of specific ecoregions that had poor agreement with the observations. Independently, we performed evaluation of the new California Air Resources Board (CARB) hybrid model by directly comparing its simulated isoprene area emissions averaged for the same flight times and flux footprints as actual measured area emissions. The model simulation and the observed

  18. Photochemical Air Quality Modeling for California By U.S. EPA and Carb

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelly, J.; Cai, C.; Baker, K. R.; Avise, J.; Kaduwela, A. P.

    2014-12-01

    Multiple areas of California have been designated as nonattainment of the National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) for ozone and PM2.5 (particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter CARB) and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). Both simulations were conducted at 4-km horizontal resolution and cover the May-June 2010 period when special study measurements were made. Despite differences in emissions, meteorology, boundary conditions, and chemical mechanisms, the CMAQ predictions by EPA and CARB were generally similar with good model performance for ozone at key monitors. Differences in predictions for PM2.5 components were identified in some locations and attributed to differences in emissions and other platform elements. Our results suggest areas where model development would be beneficial.

  19. Modeled large-scale warming impacts on summer California coastal-cooling trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lebassi-Habtezion, Bereket; GonzáLez, Jorge; Bornstein, Robert

    2011-10-01

    Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) meso-meteorological model simulations with a horizontal grid resolution of 4 km on an inner grid over the South Coast Air Basin of California were used to investigate effects from long-term (i.e., past 35 years) large-scale warming impacts on coastal flows. Comparison of present- and past-climate simulations showed significant increases in summer daytime sea breeze activity by up to 1.5 m s-1 (in the onshore component) and a concurrent coastal cooling of average-daily peak temperatures of up to -1.6°C, both of which support observations that the latter is an indirect "reverse reaction" to the large-scale warming of inland areas.

  20. Results of the Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models (RELM) test of earthquake forecasts in California.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Ya-Ting; Turcotte, Donald L; Holliday, James R; Sachs, Michael K; Rundle, John B; Chen, Chien-Chih; Tiampo, Kristy F

    2011-10-01

    The Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models (RELM) test of earthquake forecasts in California was the first competitive evaluation of forecasts of future earthquake occurrence. Participants submitted expected probabilities of occurrence of M ≥ 4.95 earthquakes in 0.1° × 0.1° cells for the period 1 January 1, 2006, to December 31, 2010. Probabilities were submitted for 7,682 cells in California and adjacent regions. During this period, 31 M ≥ 4.95 earthquakes occurred in the test region. These earthquakes occurred in 22 test cells. This seismic activity was dominated by earthquakes associated with the M = 7.2, April 4, 2010, El Mayor-Cucapah earthquake in northern Mexico. This earthquake occurred in the test region, and 16 of the other 30 earthquakes in the test region could be associated with it. Nine complete forecasts were submitted by six participants. In this paper, we present the forecasts in a way that allows the reader to evaluate which forecast is the most "successful" in terms of the locations of future earthquakes. We conclude that the RELM test was a success and suggest ways in which the results can be used to improve future forecasts.

  1. Using Adjoint Methods to Improve 3-D Velocity Models of Southern California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Q.; Tape, C.; Maggi, A.; Tromp, J.

    2006-12-01

    We use adjoint methods popular in climate and ocean dynamics to calculate Fréchet derivatives for tomographic inversions in southern California. The Fréchet derivative of an objective function χ(m), where m denotes the Earth model, may be written in the generic form δχ=int Km(x) δln m(x) d3x, where δln m=δ m/m denotes the relative model perturbation. For illustrative purposes, we construct the 3-D finite-frequency banana-doughnut kernel Km, corresponding to the misfit of a single traveltime measurement, by simultaneously computing the 'adjoint' wave field s† forward in time and reconstructing the regular wave field s backward in time. The adjoint wave field is produced by using the time-reversed velocity at the receiver as a fictitious source, while the regular wave field is reconstructed on the fly by propagating the last frame of the wave field saved by a previous forward simulation backward in time. The approach is based upon the spectral-element method, and only two simulations are needed to produce density, shear-wave, and compressional-wave sensitivity kernels. This method is applied to the SCEC southern California velocity model. Various density, shear-wave, and compressional-wave sensitivity kernels are presented for different phases in the seismograms. We also generate 'event' kernels for Pnl, S and surface waves, which are the Fréchet kernels of misfit functions that measure the P, S or surface wave traveltime residuals at all the receivers simultaneously for one particular event. Effectively, an event kernel is a sum of weighted Fréchet kernels, with weights determined by the associated traveltime anomalies. By the nature of the 3-D simulation, every event kernel is also computed based upon just two simulations, i.e., its construction costs the same amount of computation time as an individual banana-doughnut kernel. One can think of the sum of the event kernels for all available earthquakes, called the 'misfit' kernel, as a graphical

  2. An individual-based model of the krill Euphausia pacifica in the California Current

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dorman, Jeffrey G.; Sydeman, William J.; Bograd, Steven J.; Powell, Thomas M.

    2015-11-01

    Euphausia pacifica is an abundant and important prey resource for numerous predators of the California Current and elsewhere in the North Pacific. We developed an individual-based model (IBM) for E. pacifica to study its bioenergetics (growth, stage development, reproduction, and mortality) under constant/ideal conditions as well as under varying ocean conditions and food resources. To model E. pacifica under varying conditions, we coupled the IBM to an oceanographic-ecosystem model over the period 2000-2008 (9 years). Model results under constant/ideal food conditions compare favorably with experimental studies conducted under food unlimited conditions. Under more realistic variable oceanographic conditions, mean growth rates over the continental shelf were positive only when individuals migrated diurnally to the depth of maximum phytoplankton layer during nighttime feeding. Our model only used phytoplankton as prey and coastal growth rates were lower than expected (0.01 mm d-1), suggesting that a diverse prey base (zooplankton, protists, marine snow) may be required to facilitate growth and survival of modeled E. pacifica in the coastal environment. This coupled IBM-ROMS modeling framework and its parameters provides a tool for understanding the biology and ecology of E. pacifica and could be developed to further the understanding of climatic effects on this key prey species and enhance an ecosystem approach to fisheries and wildlife management in this region.

  3. Modeling future water demand in California from developed and agricultural land uses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, T. S.; Sleeter, B. M.; Cameron, D. R.

    2015-12-01

    Municipal and urban land-use intensification in coming decades will place increasing pressure on water resources in California. The state is currently experiencing one of the most extreme droughts on record. This coupled with earlier spring snowmelt and projected future climate warming will increasingly constrain already limited water supplies. The development of spatially explicit models of future land use driven by empirical, historical land use change data allow exploration of plausible LULC-related water demand futures and potential mitigation strategies. We utilized the Land Use and Carbon Scenario Simulator (LUCAS) state-and-transition simulation model to project spatially explicit (1 km) future developed and agricultural land use from 2012 to 2062 and estimated the associated water use for California's Mediterranean ecoregions. We modeled 100 Monte Carlo simulations to better characterize and project historical land-use change variability. Under current efficiency rates, total water demand was projected to increase 15.1% by 2062, driven primarily by increases in urbanization and shifts to more water intensive crops. Developed land use was projected to increase by 89.8%-97.2% and result in an average 85.9% increase in municipal water use, while agricultural water use was projected to decline by approximately 3.9%, driven by decreases in row crops and increases in woody cropland. In order for water demand in 2062 to balance to current demand levels, the currently mandated 25% reduction in urban water use must remain in place in conjunction with a near 7% reduction in agricultural water use. Scenarios of land-use related water demand are useful for visualizing alternative futures, examining potential management approaches, and enabling better informed resource management decisions.

  4. Modeled Global vs. Coastal Impacts on 1970 and 2005 Summer Daytime Temperature Trends in Coastal California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Habtezion, B. L.; Gonzalez, J.; Bornstein, R. D.

    2010-12-01

    California summertime July to August (JJA) mean monthly air temperatures (1970-2005) were analyzed for two California air basins: South Coast (SoCAB) and the San Francisco Bay Area (SFBA), which extended into the Central Valley (CV). Daily Tmin and Tmax values were used to produce average monthly values and spatial distributions of and Tmax values trends for each air basin. Results showed concurrent cooling in coastal areas and warming at further inland areas. This pattern suggests that the regional-warming of inland areas resulted in increased coastal sea breeze activity. Further investigations by use of mesoscale model simulations with the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) meso-met model with a horizontal grid resolution of 4 km on an inner grid over SoCAB were undertaken to investigate the effects of long-term changes due to green house gas (GHG) warming and land-use land-cover changes on coastal flows. Comparison of simulated present (2000-4) and past climate (1970-4) conditions showed significant increases in sea breeze activity and thus coastal cooling, which supports the observational analysis results that coastal cooling is an indirect “reverse reaction” of GHG warming. The magnitude and location of the simulated and observed coastal-cooling region were in good agreement. Urbanization effects on coastal environment were twofold: increased urban mechanical surface roughness retards sea breeze flows, while urban heat islands (UHIs) enhance them. Significant beneficial societal impacts will result from this observed reverse-reaction to global-warming, especially during UHI-growth periods, include decreased maximum: agricultural production, O3 levels, per-capita energy requirements for cooling, and human thermal-stress levels. Similar “reverse-reaction” effects should be found in other mid-latitude western coastal-regions.

  5. Modeling residential water and related energy, carbon footprint and costs in California

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Graphical abstract: - Highlights: • We model residential water use and related energy and GHG emissions in California. • Heterogeneity in use, spatial variability and water and energy rates are accounted. • Outdoor is more than 50% of water use but 80% of energy is used by faucet + shower. • Variability in water and energy prices affects willingness to adopt conservation. • Targeting high-use hoses and joint conservation policies are effective strategies. - Abstract: Starting from single-family household water end-use data, this study develops an end-use model for water-use and related energy and carbon footprint using probability distributions for parameters affecting water consumption in 10 local water utilities in California. Monte Carlo simulations are used to develop a large representative sample of households to describe variability in use, with water bills for each house for different utility rate structures. The water-related energy consumption for each household realization was obtained using an energy model based on the different water end-uses, assuming probability distributions for hot-water-use for each appliance and water heater characteristics. Spatial variability is incorporated to account for average air and household water inlet temperatures and price structures for each utility. Water-related energy costs are calculated using averaged energy price for each location. CO2 emissions were derived from energy use using emission factors. Overall simulation runs assess the impact of several common conservation strategies on household water and energy use. Results show that single-family water-related CO2 emissions are 2% of overall per capita emissions, and that managing water and energy jointly can significantly reduce state greenhouse gas emissions

  6. Niche energy markets in rural areas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The objective of this project is the development of a standard methodology for integrating non-food crops in rural areas with niche energy markets. This has involved a number of steps including (i) identification of 3 niche markets for energy crops which are of common interest to the partners, (ii) application of the standard costing methodology to investigate these three niche markets and (iii) comparison of the results from this work in three workshops (one for each market). Three tightly defined niche markets were identified; these were chosen following an examination of the national energy marekts in each of the partners countries (Ireland, Germany, Netherlands, UK, Greece and Portugal). This paper gives an overview of the national energy markets which were examined. The three niche markets are introduced and the reasons for their selection given. The application of the methodology to each of the niche markets is presented along with the conclusions of the partners regarding the niche markets. (Author)

  7. Niche market analysis: healthy nutrition

    OpenAIRE

    Chlivényiová, Eva

    2012-01-01

    The purpose of this Master's Thesis is to consider preferences of the consumers on the market of healthy nutrition and trends on this market. The Thesis analyzes if the niche on the market of healthy nutrition really exists and tries to predict future development of the healthy nutrition through the found out facts. The topic of this Master's Thesis was chosen because healthy lifestyle represents a hot topic for many discussions. This Thesis includes theoretical and analytical parts. Importan...

  8. Niche dimensionality and the genetics of ecological speciation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chevin, Luis-Miguel; Decorzent, Guillaume; Lenormand, Thomas

    2014-05-01

    Niche dimensionality is suggested to be a key determinant of ecological speciation ("multifarious selection" hypothesis), but genetic aspects of this process have not been investigated theoretically. We use Fisher's geometrical model to study how niche dimensionality influences the mean fitness of hybrids formed upon secondary contact between populations adapting in allopatry. Gaussian selection for an optimum generates two forms of reproductive isolation (RI): an extrinsic component due to maladaptation of the mean phenotype, and an intrinsic variance load resulting from what we term transgressive incompatibilities between mutations fixed in different populations. We show that after adaptation to a new environment, RI increases with (1) the mean initial maladaptation of diverging population, and (2) niche dimensionality, which increases the phenotypic variability of fixed mutations. Under mutation selection drift equilibrium in a constant environment, RI accumulates steadily with time, at a rate that also increases with niche dimensionality. A similar pattern can be produced by successive shifts in the optimum phenotype. Niche dimensionality thus has an effect per se on postzygotic isolation, beyond putative indirect effects (stronger selection, more genes). Our mechanism is consistent with empirical evidence about transgressive segregation in crosses between divergent populations, and with patterns of accumulation of RI with time in many taxa. PMID:24410181

  9. Step back! Niche dynamics in cave-dwelling predators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mammola, Stefano; Piano, Elena; Isaia, Marco

    2016-08-01

    The geometry of the Hutchinson's hypervolume derives from multiple selective pressures defined, on one hand, by the physiological tolerance of the species, and on the other, by intra- and interspecific competition. The quantification of these evolutionary forces is essential for the understanding of the coexistence of predators in light of competitive exclusion dynamics. We address this topic by investigating the ecological niche of two medium-sized troglophile spiders (Meta menardi and Pimoa graphitica). Over one year, we surveyed several populations in four subterranean sites in the Western Italian Alps, monitoring monthly their spatial and temporal dynamics and the associated physical and ecological variables. We assessed competition between the two species by means of multi regression techniques and by evaluating the intersection between their multidimensional hypervolumes. We detected a remarkable overlap between the microclimatic and trophic niche of M. menardi and P. graphitica, however, the former -being larger in size- resulted the best competitor in proximity of the cave entrance, causing the latter to readjust its spatial niche towards the inner part, where prey availability is scarcer ("step back effect"). In parallel to the slight variations in the subterranean microclimatic condition, the niche of the two species was also found to be seasonal dependent, varying over the year. With this work, we aim at providing new insights about the relationships among predators, demonstrating that energy-poor environments such as caves maintain the potential for diversification of predators via niche differentiation and serve as useful models for theoretical ecological studies.

  10. California Tiger Salamander Range - CWHR [ds588

    Data.gov (United States)

    California Department of Resources — Vector datasets of CWHR range maps are one component of California Wildlife Habitat Relationships (CWHR), a comprehensive information system and predictive model...

  11. Niche-specific cognitive strategies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hulgard, K.; Ratcliffe, J. M.

    2014-01-01

    Related species with different diets are predicted to rely on different cognitive strategies: those best suited for locating available and appropriate foods. Here we tested two predictions of the niche-specific cognitive strategies hypothesis in bats, which suggests that predatory species should ...... the niche-specific cognitive strategies hypothesis and suggest that for gleaning and clutter-resistant aerial hawking bats, learning to associate shape with food interferes with subsequent spatial memory learning.......Related species with different diets are predicted to rely on different cognitive strategies: those best suited for locating available and appropriate foods. Here we tested two predictions of the niche-specific cognitive strategies hypothesis in bats, which suggests that predatory species should...... rely more on object memory than on spatial memory for finding food and that the opposite is true of frugivorous and nectivorous species. Specifically, we predicted that: (1) predatory bats would readily learn to associate shapes with palatable prey and (2) once bats had made such associations...

  12. Test characteristics from latent-class models of the California Mastitis Test.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanford, C J; Keefe, G P; Sanchez, J; Dingwell, R T; Barkema, H W; Leslie, K E; Dohoo, I R

    2006-11-17

    We evaluated (using latent-class models) the ability of the California Mastitis Test (CMT) to identify cows with intramammary infections on the day of dry-off. The positive and negative predictive values of this test to identify cows requiring dry-cow antibiotics (i.e. infected) was also assessed. We used 752 Holstein-Friesian cows from 11 herds for this investigation. Milk samples were collected for bacteriology, and the CMT was performed cow-side, prior to milking on the day of dry-off. At the cow-level, the sensitivity and specificity of the CMT (using the four quarter results interpreted in parallel) for identifying all pathogens were estimated at 70 and 48%, respectively. If only major pathogens were considered the sensitivity of the CMT increased to 86%. The negative predictive value of the CMT was >95% for herds with major-pathogen intramammary-infection prevalence CMT. PMID:16876270

  13. Integrated modeling and field study of potential mechanisms forinduced seismicity at The Geysers Goethermal Field, California

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rutqvist, Jonny; Majer, Ernie; Oldenburg, Curt; Peterson, John; Vasco, Don

    2006-06-07

    In this paper, we present progress made in a study aimed atincreasing the understanding of the relative contributions of differentmechanisms that may be causing the seismicity occurring at The Geysersgeothermal field, California. The approach we take is to integrate: (1)coupled reservoir geomechanical numerical modeling, (2) data fromrecently upgraded and expanded NCPA/Calpine/LBNL seismic arrays, and (3)tens of years of archival InSAR data from monthly satellite passes. Wehave conducted a coupled reservoir geomechanical analysis to studypotential mechanisms induced by steam production. Our simulation resultscorroborate co-locations of hypocenter field observations of inducedseismicity and their correlation with steam production as reported in theliterature. Seismic and InSAR data are being collected and processed foruse in constraining the coupled reservoir geomechanicalmodel.

  14. Physiochemical Evidence of Faulting Processes and Modeling of Fluid in Evolving Fault Systems in Southern California

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boles, James [Professor

    2013-05-24

    Our study targets recent (Plio-Pleistocene) faults and young (Tertiary) petroleum fields in southern California. Faults include the Refugio Fault in the Transverse Ranges, the Ellwood Fault in the Santa Barbara Channel, and most recently the Newport- Inglewood in the Los Angeles Basin. Subsurface core and tubing scale samples, outcrop samples, well logs, reservoir properties, pore pressures, fluid compositions, and published structural-seismic sections have been used to characterize the tectonic/diagenetic history of the faults. As part of the effort to understand the diagenetic processes within these fault zones, we have studied analogous processes of rapid carbonate precipitation (scaling) in petroleum reservoir tubing and manmade tunnels. From this, we have identified geochemical signatures in carbonate that characterize rapid CO2 degassing. These data provide constraints for finite element models that predict fluid pressures, multiphase flow patterns, rates and patterns of deformation, subsurface temperatures and heat flow, and geochemistry associated with large fault systems.

  15. California's Innovative Corridors Initiative: A New Model for Public-Private Partnerships in Transportation

    OpenAIRE

    Shaheen, Susan; McCormick, Cynthia; Finson, Rachel S.

    2004-01-01

    California's Innovative Corridors Initiative (ICI) is a multi-year project to test a new approach for accelerating the deployment of Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) technologies, products, and services along major California corridors. As part of the effort, ICI governmental partners developed a Call for Submissions (CFS) to solicit proposals for pilot demonstration projects to be showcased in conjunction with the forthcoming 2005 ITS World Congress in San Francisco, California. The ...

  16. California Bioregions

    Data.gov (United States)

    California Department of Resources — California regions developed by the Inter-agency Natural Areas Coordinating Committee (INACC) were digitized from a 1:1,200,000 California Department of Fish and...

  17. Phylogenetic conservatism of environmental niches in mammals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cooper, Natalie; Freckleton, Rob P; Jetz, Walter

    2011-08-01

    Phylogenetic niche conservatism is the pattern where close relatives occupy similar niches, whereas distant relatives are more dissimilar. We suggest that niche conservatism will vary across clades in relation to their characteristics. Specifically, we investigate how conservatism of environmental niches varies among mammals according to their latitude, range size, body size and specialization. We use the Brownian rate parameter, σ(2), to measure the rate of evolution in key variables related to the ecological niche and define the more conserved group as the one with the slower rate of evolution. We find that tropical, small-ranged and specialized mammals have more conserved thermal niches than temperate, large-ranged or generalized mammals. Partitioning niche conservatism into its spatial and phylogenetic components, we find that spatial effects on niche variables are generally greater than phylogenetic effects. This suggests that recent evolution and dispersal have more influence on species' niches than more distant evolutionary events. These results have implications for our understanding of the role of niche conservatism in species richness patterns and for gauging the potential for species to adapt to global change.

  18. A fault-based model for crustal deformation, fault slip-rates and off-fault strain rate in California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeng, Yuehua; Shen, Zheng-Kang

    2016-01-01

    We invert Global Positioning System (GPS) velocity data to estimate fault slip rates in California using a fault‐based crustal deformation model with geologic constraints. The model assumes buried elastic dislocations across the region using Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast Version 3 (UCERF3) fault geometries. New GPS velocity and geologic slip‐rate data were compiled by the UCERF3 deformation working group. The result of least‐squares inversion shows that the San Andreas fault slips at 19–22  mm/yr along Santa Cruz to the North Coast, 25–28  mm/yr along the central California creeping segment to the Carrizo Plain, 20–22  mm/yr along the Mojave, and 20–24  mm/yr along the Coachella to the Imperial Valley. Modeled slip rates are 7–16  mm/yr lower than the preferred geologic rates from the central California creeping section to the San Bernardino North section. For the Bartlett Springs section, fault slip rates of 7–9  mm/yr fall within the geologic bounds but are twice the preferred geologic rates. For the central and eastern Garlock, inverted slip rates of 7.5 and 4.9  mm/yr, respectively, match closely with the geologic rates. For the western Garlock, however, our result suggests a low slip rate of 1.7  mm/yr. Along the eastern California shear zone and southern Walker Lane, our model shows a cumulative slip rate of 6.2–6.9  mm/yr across its east–west transects, which is ∼1  mm/yr increase of the geologic estimates. For the off‐coast faults of central California, from Hosgri to San Gregorio, fault slips are modeled at 1–5  mm/yr, similar to the lower geologic bounds. For the off‐fault deformation, the total moment rate amounts to 0.88×1019  N·m/yr, with fast straining regions found around the Mendocino triple junction, Transverse Ranges and Garlock fault zones, Landers and Brawley seismic zones, and farther south. The overall California moment rate is 2.76×1019

  19. Climatic niche evolution in New World monkeys (Platyrrhini.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andressa Duran

    Full Text Available Despite considerable interest in recent years on species distribution modeling and phylogenetic niche conservatism, little is known about the way in which climatic niches change over evolutionary time. This knowledge is of major importance to understand the mechanisms underlying limits of species distributions, as well as to infer how different lineages might be affected by anthropogenic climate change. In this study we investigate the tempo and mode climatic niche evolution in New World monkeys (Platyrrhini. Climatic conditions found throughout the distribution of 140 primate species were investigated using a principal component analysis, which indicated that mean temperature (particularly during the winter is the most important climatic correlate of platyrrhine geographical distributions, accounting for nearly half of the interspecific variation in climatic niches. The effects of precipitation were associated with the second principal component, particularly with respect to the dry season. When models of trait evolution were fit to scores on each of the principal component axes, significant phylogenetic signal was detected for PC1 scores, but not for PC2 scores. Interestingly, although all platyrrhine families occupied comparable regions of climatic space, some aotid species such as Aotus lemurinus, A. jorgehernandezi, and A. miconax show highly distinctive climatic niches associated with drier conditions (high PC2 scores. This shift might have been made possible by their nocturnal habits, which could serve as an exaptation that allow them to be less constrained by humidity during the night. These results underscore the usefulness of investigating explicitly the tempo and mode of climatic niche evolution and its role in determining species distributions.

  20. Final Report: Natural State Models of The Geysers Geothermal System, Sonoma County, California

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    T. H. Brikowski; D. L. Norton; D. D. Blackwell

    2001-12-31

    Final project report of natural state modeling effort for The Geysers geothermal field, California. Initial models examined the liquid-dominated state of the system, based on geologic constraints and calibrated to match observed whole rock delta-O18 isotope alteration. These models demonstrated that the early system was of generally low permeability (around 10{sup -12} m{sup 2}), with good hydraulic connectivity at depth (along the intrusive contact) and an intact caprock. Later effort in the project was directed at development of a two-phase, supercritical flow simulation package (EOS1sc) to accompany the Tough2 flow simulator. Geysers models made using this package show that ''simmering'', or the transient migration of vapor bubbles through the hydrothermal system, is the dominant transition state as the system progresses to vapor-dominated. Such a system is highly variable in space and time, making the rock record more difficult to interpret, since pressure-temperature indicators likely reflect only local, short duration conditions.

  1. Bed composition generation for morphodynamic modeling: Case study of San Pablo Bay in California, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Wegen, M.; Dastgheib, A.; Jaffe, B.E.; Roelvink, D.

    2011-01-01

    Applications of process-based morphodynamic models are often constrained by limited availability of data on bed composition, which may have a considerable impact on the modeled morphodynamic development. One may even distinguish a period of "morphodynamic spin-up" in which the model generates the bed level according to some ill-defined initial bed composition rather than describing the realistic behavior of the system. The present paper proposes a methodology to generate bed composition of multiple sand and/or mud fractions that can act as the initial condition for the process-based numerical model Delft3D. The bed composition generation (BCG) run does not include bed level changes, but does permit the redistribution of multiple sediment fractions over the modeled domain. The model applies the concept of an active layer that may differ in sediment composition above an underlayer with fixed composition. In the case of a BCG run, the bed level is kept constant, whereas the bed composition can change. The approach is applied to San Pablo Bay in California, USA. Model results show that the BCG run reallocates sand and mud fractions over the model domain. Initially, a major sediment reallocation takes place, but development rates decrease in the longer term. Runs that take the outcome of a BCG run as a starting point lead to more gradual morphodynamic development. Sensitivity analysis shows the impact of variations in the morphological factor, the active layer thickness, and wind waves. An important but difficult to characterize criterion for a successful application of a BCG run is that it should not lead to a bed composition that fixes the bed so that it dominates the "natural" morphodynamic development of the system. Future research will focus on a decadal morphodynamic hindcast and comparison with measured bathymetries in San Pablo Bay so that the proposed methodology can be tested and optimized. ?? 2010 The Author(s).

  2. Bone Marrow Vascular Niche: Home for Hematopoietic Stem Cells

    OpenAIRE

    Ningning He; Lu Zhang; Jian Cui; Zongjin Li

    2014-01-01

    Though discovered later than osteoblastic niche, vascular niche has been regarded as an alternative indispensable niche operating regulation on hematopoietic stem cells (HSCs). As significant progresses gained on this type niche, it is gradually clear that the main work of vascular niche is undertaking to support hematopoiesis. However, compared to what have been defined in the mechanisms through which the osteoblastic niche regulates hematopoiesis, we know less in vascular niche. In this rev...

  3. Supply Chain Development: Insights from Strategic Niche Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caniels, Marjolein C. J.; Romijn, Henny A.

    2008-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to contribute to the study of supply chain design from the perspective of complex dynamic systems. Unlike extant studies that use formal simulation modelling and associated methodologies rooted in the physical sciences, it adopts a framework rooted in the social sciences, strategic niche management, which…

  4. A new image of the hematopoietic stem cell vascular niche

    OpenAIRE

    Silberstein, Leslie E.; Lin, Charles P.

    2013-01-01

    The microenvironment within the bone marrow that maintains hematopoietic stem cell (HSC) quiescence is the subject of intense study. In a recent Nature paper, Kunisaki et al combine imaging techniques and computational modeling to define a novel arteriolar niche for quiescent HSCs within the bone marrow.

  5. The regulatory niche of intestinal stem cells.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sailaja, Badi Sri; He, Xi C; Li, Linheng

    2016-09-01

    The niche constitutes a unique category of cells that support the microenvironment for the maintenance and self-renewal of stem cells. Intestinal stem cells reside at the base of the crypt, which contains adjacent epithelial cells, stromal cells and smooth muscle cells, and soluble and cell-associated growth and differentiation factors. We summarize here recent advances in our understanding of the crucial role of the niche in regulating stem cells. The stem cell niche maintains a balance among quiescence, proliferation and regeneration of intestinal stem cells after injury. Mesenchymal cells, Paneth cells, immune cells, endothelial cells and neural cells are important regulatory components that secrete niche ligands, growth factors and cytokines. Intestinal homeostasis is regulated by niche signalling pathways, specifically Wnt, bone morphogenetic protein, Notch and epidermal growth factor. These insights into the regulatory stem cell niche during homeostasis and post-injury regeneration offer the potential to accelerate development of therapies for intestine-related disorders.

  6. Application of the Telegraph Model to Coda Q Variations in Southern California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, P. M.; Clayton, R. W.

    2006-12-01

    We examine data used to construct coda magnitude in southern California to estimate the spatial variation of coda Q and its dependence on frequency. Our analysis combined with independent borehole data (Abercrombie, 1995) suggests coda is mainly generated by multiple scattering in the upper few km of the crust where large impedance contrasts occur due to surface layering or fracturing. The ubiquitous observation that coda Q increases with frequency is explained as arising from multiple reverberations in the upper crust. We suggest that the telegraph model that has been successfully used to describe reflection seismogram multiples in the exploration industry may also apply to earthquakes. Under this model the apparent increase of Q with frequency is due to trapping of high frequency energy in the upper crust. This behavior is expected if the associated reflector series has an exponential autocorrelation function, a feature of the telegraph model. At lower frequencies trapping is less efficient. The combined effects give rise to an apparent absorption band that we suppose is superimposed on frequency-independent intrinsic attenuation. Maximum apparent attenuation occurs at wavelengths equal to the dimensions of the regions of upper crust that contain the scattering layers. At lower frequencies trapping is less effective and attenuation decreases as the longer wavelength waves sample the deeper crust and upper mantle where, due to over-burden pressures, acoustic impedance contrasts are less extreme.

  7. A Comparison of Groundwater Storage Using GRACE Data, Groundwater Levels, and a Hydrological Model in Californias Central Valley

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuss, Amber; Brandt, William; Randall, Joshua; Floyd, Bridget; Bourai, Abdelwahab; Newcomer, Michelle; Skiles, Joseph; Schmidt, Cindy

    2011-01-01

    The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) measures changes in total water storage (TWS) remotely, and may provide additional insight to the use of well-based data in California's agriculturally productive Central Valley region. Under current California law, well owners are not required to report groundwater extraction rates, making estimation of total groundwater extraction difficult. As a result, other groundwater change detection techniques may prove useful. From October 2002 to September 2009, GRACE was used to map changes in TWS for the three hydrological regions (the Sacramento River Basin, the San Joaquin River Basin, and the Tulare Lake Basin) encompassing the Central Valley aquifer. Net groundwater storage changes were calculated from the changes in TWS for each of the three hydrological regions and by incorporating estimates for additional components of the hydrological budget including precipitation, evapotranspiration, soil moisture, snow pack, and surface water storage. The calculated changes in groundwater storage were then compared to simulated values from the California Department of Water Resource's Central Valley Groundwater- Surface Water Simulation Model (C2VSIM) and their Water Data Library (WDL) Geographic Information System (GIS) change in storage tool. The results from the three methods were compared. Downscaling GRACE data into the 21 smaller Central Valley sub-regions included in C2VSIM was also evaluated. This work has the potential to improve California's groundwater resource management and use of existing hydrological models for the Central Valley.

  8. Phytoplankton niche generation by interspecific stoichiometric variation

    Science.gov (United States)

    GöThlich, L.; Oschlies, A.

    2012-06-01

    For marine biogeochemical models used in simulations of climate change scenarios, the ability to account for adaptability of marine ecosystems to environmental change becomes a concern. The potential for adaptation is expected to be larger for a diverse ecosystem compared to a monoculture of a single type of (model) algae, such as typically included in biogeochemical models. Recent attempts to simulate phytoplankton diversity in global marine ecosystem models display remarkable qualitative agreement with observed patterns of species distributions. However, modeled species diversity tends to be systematically lower than observed and, in many regions, is smaller than the number of potentially limiting nutrients. According to resource competition theory, the maximum number of coexisting species at equilibrium equals the number of limiting resources. By simulating phytoplankton communities in a chemostat model and in a global circulation model, we show here that a systematic underestimate of phytoplankton diversity may result from the standard modeling assumption of identical stoichiometry for the different phytoplankton types. Implementing stoichiometric variation among the different marine algae types in the models allows species to generate different resource supply niches via their own ecological impact. This is shown to increase the level of phytoplankton coexistence both in a chemostat model and in a global self-assembling ecosystem model.

  9. An ecosystem modelling approach to deriving viable harvest strategies for multispecies management of the Northern Gulf of California

    OpenAIRE

    Lecardi, Diego; Arreguín Sánchez, Francisco

    2009-01-01

    An ecosystem analysis was developed focusing on resource exploitation and biodiversity conservation for the Northern Gulf of California. The main tools employed were a trophic ecosystem model and time dynamic simulations. The ecosystem was represented by an Ecopath model that included 34 functional groups, from primary producers to top predators. It included relevant species in the area such as commercially important shrimp (e.g. Litopenaeus stylirostris) and highly endangered species (Phocoe...

  10. Human niche construction in interdisciplinary focus

    OpenAIRE

    Kendal, Jeremy; Tehrani, Jamshid J.; Odling-Smee, John

    2011-01-01

    Niche construction is an endogenous causal process in evolution, reciprocal to the causal process of natural selection. It works by adding ecological inheritance, comprising the inheritance of natural selection pressures previously modified by niche construction, to genetic inheritance in evolution. Human niche construction modifies selection pressures in environments in ways that affect both human evolution, and the evolution of other species. Human ecological inheritance is exceptionally po...

  11. Exploring dynamics and strategies of niche protection

    OpenAIRE

    Boon, W.P.C.; Moors, Ellen H M; Meijer, Albert J.

    2014-01-01

    This paper focuses on the processes and strategies of advocates and opponents in creating, maintaining and/or contesting the protective spaces in which 'urgently needed' but 'risky' pharmaceutical innovations are managed. Drawing on transition literature and recent work on niche protection, this paper adds to the conceptualisation and empirical grounding of niche protection by studying the dynamics of protection, in particular the different phases of niche development. Moreover, the links bet...

  12. 企业间竞合及生态位演化建模与仿真--以电信运营商与移动OTT商为例%Modeling and Simulation of Niche Evolution and Coopetition between Eenterprises---A Case Study in Telecom Operators and Mobile OTT Providers

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    黄万艮; 孙耀吾; 韩冰

    2015-01-01

    Because of the application of breakthrough innovations , enterprise niche of mobile OTT providers and telecom operators overlaps , and that disruptively impacts on the telecom operator's traditional business , and triggers a dispute . Based on niche theory , dif-ferent patterns of action between enterprises and their mechanism has led to the evolution of niche have been described and revealed through the application of Lotka-Volterra model , and niche evolutionary capability at different modes of action between enterprises has been simu-lated . Conclusions show that only taking a cooperative symbiosis model , companies will have co-evolutionary niche . On this basis , tele-com operators'niche expansion mode has been proposed from the perspective of platform innovations .%应用突破性创新技术的移动OTT服务商与电信运营商出现企业生态位重叠,颠覆性地影响了电信运营商的传统业务,引发纷争。本文依据生态位理论,应用Lotka-Volterra模型刻画和揭示企业间不同的作用模式及其导致生态位演化的机理,仿真在不同模式下企业生态位的进化能力。结论显示,只有采取合作共生的模式,企业生态位才会协同进化。在此基础上,本文从平台创新角度,提出了电信运营商生态位扩展方式。

  13. Predicting the distribution of a parasite using the ecological niche model, GARP Predicción de la distribución de un parásito usando el modelo de nicho ecológico, GARP

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Terry R. Haverkost

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available The ecological niche of a parasite exists only at the nexus of certain abiotic and biotic conditions suitable for both the definitive and intermediate hosts. However, the life cycles of most parasites are not known, or are poorly known, and using known ranges of hosts to find endemic parasitic infections has been difficult. However, with ecological niche modeling, we can create potential range maps using known localities of infection. Testing the validity of such maps requires knowledge of the localities of other parasites with common history. Here, we find that the ecological niche of a tapeworm parasite of voles, Paranoplocephala macrocephala (Cestoda: Anoplocephalidae, allows prediction of the presence (in ecological and geographic space of 19 related parasite species from 3 genera in 23 different hosts throughout the Nearctic. These results give credence to the idea that this group shares similar life cycle requirements despite phylogenetic distance. This work further validates ecological niche modeling as a means by which to predict occurrence of parasites when not all facets of the life cycle are confirmed. Such inductive methods create the opportunity for deducing potential reservoir or intermediate hosts, and complementing studies of parasite biodiversity and community ecology.El nicho ecológico de un parásito existe sólo cuando coinciden condiciones abióticas y bióticas necesarias para los hospederos definitivos e intermediarios. No obstante, los ciclos de vida de la mayoría de los parásitos son poco conocidos; el usar áreas de distribución de hospederos para encontrar áreas endémicas de parasitismo ha resultado difícil. Con el modelado de nicho, se pueden producir mapas del área de distribución potencial con base en sitios conocidos de presencia. Para probar la validez de estos mapas, se requiere el conocimiento de sitios de presencia de otros parásitos relacionados. En este estudio, encontramos que el nicho ecol

  14. Identification of hepatic niche harboring human acute lymphoblastic leukemic cells via the SDF-1/CXCR4 axis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Itaru Kato

    Full Text Available In acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL patients, the bone marrow niche is widely known to be an important element of treatment response and relapse. Furthermore, a characteristic liver pathology observed in ALL patients implies that the hepatic microenvironment provides an extramedullary niche for leukemic cells. However, it remains unclear whether the liver actually provides a specific niche. The mechanism underlying this pathology is also poorly understood. Here, to answer these questions, we reconstituted the histopathology of leukemic liver by using patients-derived primary ALL cells into NOD/SCID/Yc (null mice. The liver pathology in this model was similar to that observed in the patients. By using this model, we clearly demonstrated that bile duct epithelial cells form a hepatic niche that supports infiltration and proliferation of ALL cells in the liver. Furthermore, we showed that functions of the niche are maintained by the SDF-1/CXCR4 axis, proposing a novel therapeutic approach targeting the extramedullary niche by inhibition of the SDF-1/CXCR4 axis. In conclusion, we demonstrated that the liver dissemination of leukemia is not due to nonselective infiltration, but rather systematic invasion and proliferation of leukemic cells in hepatic niche. Although the contribution of SDF-1/CXCR4 axis is reported in some cancer cells or leukemic niches such as bone marrow, we demonstrated that this axis works even in the extramedullary niche of leukemic cells. Our findings form the basis for therapeutic approaches that target the extramedullary niche by inhibiting the SDF-1/CXCR4 axis.

  15. A physical model for earthquakes. I - Fluctuations and interactions. II - Application to southern California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rundle, John B.

    1988-01-01

    The idea that earthquakes represent a fluctuation about the long-term motion of plates is expressed mathematically through the fluctuation hypothesis, under which all physical quantities which pertain to the occurance of earthquakes are required to depend on the difference between the present state of slip on the fault and its long-term average. It is shown that under certain circumstances the model fault dynamics undergo a sudden transition from a spatially ordered, temporally disordered state to a spatially disordered, temporally ordered state, and that the latter stages are stable for long intervals of time. For long enough faults, the dynamics are evidently chaotic. The methods developed are then used to construct a detailed model for earthquake dynamics in southern California. The result is a set of slip-time histories for all the major faults, which are similar to data obtained by geological trenching studies. Although there is an element of periodicity to the events, the patterns shift, change and evolve with time. Time scales for pattern evolution seem to be of the order of a thousand years for average recurring intervals of about a hundred years.

  16. A numerical test method of California bearing ratio on graded crushed rocks using particle flow modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yingjun Jiang

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available In order to better understand the mechanical properties of graded crushed rocks (GCRs and to optimize the relevant design, a numerical test method based on the particle flow modeling technique PFC2D is developed for the California bearing ratio (CBR test on GCRs. The effects of different testing conditions and micro-mechanical parameters used in the model on the CBR numerical results have been systematically studied. The reliability of the numerical technique is verified. The numerical results suggest that the influences of the loading rate and Poisson's ratio on the CBR numerical test results are not significant. As such, a loading rate of 1.0–3.0 mm/min, a piston diameter of 5 cm, a specimen height of 15 cm and a specimen diameter of 15 cm are adopted for the CBR numerical test. The numerical results reveal that the CBR values increase with the friction coefficient at the contact and shear modulus of the rocks, while the influence of Poisson's ratio on the CBR values is insignificant. The close agreement between the CBR numerical results and experimental results suggests that the numerical simulation of the CBR values is promising to help assess the mechanical properties of GCRs and to optimize the grading design. Besides, the numerical study can provide useful insights on the mesoscopic mechanism.

  17. Aeromagnetic map of the Death Valley ground-water model area, Nevada and California; TOPICAL

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This aeromagnetic map of the Death Valley ground-water model area was prepared from numerous separate aeromagnetic surveys that were gridded, merged, and described by Hildenbrand and Kucks (1988) and by McCafferty and Grauch (1997). These data are available in grid format from the EROS Data Center, U.S. Geological Survey, Sioux Falls, South Dakota, 57198, and from the National Geophysical Data Center, 325 Broadway, E/GC4, Boulder, Colo., 80303. Magnetic investigations of the Death Valley ground-water basin are part of an interagency effort by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the U.S. Department of Energy (Interagency Agreement DE-AI08-96NV11967) to help characterize the geology and hydrology of southwest Nevada and adjacent parts of California (Blakely and others, 2000b). The Death Valley ground-water model is located between lat 35 degrees 00' and 38 degrees 15' N., and long 115 degrees and 118 degrees W

  18. Final report on "Modeling Diurnal Variations of California Land Biosphere CO2 Fluxes"

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fung, Inez

    2014-07-28

    In Mediterranean climates, the season of water availability (winter) is out of phase with the season of light availability and atmospheric demand for moisture (summer). Multi-year half-hourly observations of sap flow velocities in 26 evergreen trees in a small watershed in Northern California show that different species of evergreen trees have different seasonalities of transpiration: Douglas-firs respond immediately to the first winter rain, while Pacific madrones have peak transpiration in the dry summer. Using these observations, we have derived species-specific parameterization of normalized sap flow velocities in terms of insolation, vapor pressure deficit and near-surface soil moisture. A simple 1-D boundary layer model showed that afternoon temperatures may be higher by 1 degree Celsius in an area with Douglas-firs than with Pacific madrones. The results point to the need to develop a new representation of subsurface moisture, in particular pools beneath the organic soil mantle and the vadose zone. Our ongoing and future work includes coupling our new parameterization of transpiration with new representation of sub-surface moisture in saprolite and weathered bedrock. The results will be implemented in a regional climate model to explore vegetation-climate feedbacks, especially in the dry season.

  19. Calibration of numerical models for small debris flows in Yosemite Valley, California, USA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Bertolo

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available This study compares documented debris flow runout distances with numerical simulations in the Yosemite Valley of California, USA, where about 15% of historical events of slope instability can be classified as debris flows and debris slides (Wieczorek and Snyder, 2004. To model debris flows in the Yosemite Valley, we selected six streams with evidence of historical debris flows; three of the debris flow deposits have single channels, and the other three split their pattern in the fan area into two or more channels. From field observations all of the debris flows involved coarse material, with only very small clay content. We applied the one dimensional DAN (Dynamic ANalysis model (Hungr, 1995 and the two-dimensional FLO-2D model (O'Brien et al., 1993 to predict and compare the runout distance and the velocity of the debris flows observed in the study area. As a first step, we calibrated the parameters for the two softwares through the back analysis of three debris- flows channels using a trial-and-error procedure starting with values suggested in the literature. In the second step we applied the selected values to the other channels, in order to evaluate their predictive capabilities. After parameter calibration using three debris flows we obtained results similar to field observations We also obtained a good agreement between the two models for velocities. Both models are strongly influenced by topography: we used the 30 m cell size DTM available for the study area, that is probably not accurate enough for a highly detailed analysis, but it can be sufficient for a first screening.

  20. A statistical learning framework for groundwater nitrate models of the Central Valley, California, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nolan, Bernard T.; Fienen, Michael N.; Lorenz, David L.

    2015-01-01

    We used a statistical learning framework to evaluate the ability of three machine-learning methods to predict nitrate concentration in shallow groundwater of the Central Valley, California: boosted regression trees (BRT), artificial neural networks (ANN), and Bayesian networks (BN). Machine learning methods can learn complex patterns in the data but because of overfitting may not generalize well to new data. The statistical learning framework involves cross-validation (CV) training and testing data and a separate hold-out data set for model evaluation, with the goal of optimizing predictive performance by controlling for model overfit. The order of prediction performance according to both CV testing R2 and that for the hold-out data set was BRT > BN > ANN. For each method we identified two models based on CV testing results: that with maximum testing R2 and a version with R2 within one standard error of the maximum (the 1SE model). The former yielded CV training R2 values of 0.94–1.0. Cross-validation testing R2 values indicate predictive performance, and these were 0.22–0.39 for the maximum R2 models and 0.19–0.36 for the 1SE models. Evaluation with hold-out data suggested that the 1SE BRT and ANN models predicted better for an independent data set compared with the maximum R2 versions, which is relevant to extrapolation by mapping. Scatterplots of predicted vs. observed hold-out data obtained for final models helped identify prediction bias, which was fairly pronounced for ANN and BN. Lastly, the models were compared with multiple linear regression (MLR) and a previous random forest regression (RFR) model. Whereas BRT results were comparable to RFR, MLR had low hold-out R2 (0.07) and explained less than half the variation in the training data. Spatial patterns of predictions by the final, 1SE BRT model agreed reasonably well with previously observed patterns of nitrate occurrence in groundwater of the Central Valley.

  1. Does primary myelofibrosis involve a defective stem cell niche? From concept to evidence

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lataillade, J.J.; Pierre-Louis, O.; Uzan, G.;

    2008-01-01

    Primary myelofibrosis (PMF) is the rarest and the most severe Philadelphia-negative chronic myeloproliferative syndrome. By associating a clonal proliferation and a mobilization of hematopoietic stem cells from bone marrow to spleen with profound alterations of the stroma, PMF is a remarkable model...... in which deregulation of the stem cell niche is of utmost importance for the disease development. This paper reviews key data suggesting that an imbalance between endosteal and vascular niches participates in the development of clonal stem cell proliferation. Mechanisms by which bone marrow niches...... are altered with ensuing mobilization and homing of neoplastic hematopoietic stem cells in new or reinitialized niches in the spleen and liver are examined. Differences between signals delivered by both endosteal and vascular niches in the bone marrow and spleen of patients as well as the responsiveness...

  2. Stitch the niche - a practical philosophy and visual schematic for the niche concept

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    McInerny, Greg J.; Etienne, Rampal S.

    2012-01-01

    By over-focusing on precise definitions, ecology has produced a confused idea of the niche concept. This, our second paper, develops a practical philosophy for the niche that approaches the concept at the correct level of abstraction. We deconstruct the niche into effect and response components and

  3. Hybrid apomicts trapped in the ecological niches of their sexual ancestors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mau, Martin; Lovell, John T; Corral, José M; Kiefer, Christiane; Koch, Marcus A; Aliyu, Olawale M; Sharbel, Timothy F

    2015-05-01

    Asexual reproduction is expected to reduce the adaptive potential to novel or changing environmental conditions, restricting or altering the ecological niche of asexual lineages. Asexual lineages of plants and animals are typically polyploid, an attribute that may influence their genetic variation, plasticity, adaptive potential, and niche breadth. The genus Boechera (Brassicaceae) represents an ideal model to test the relative ecological and biogeographic impacts of reproductive mode and ploidy because it is composed of diploid sexual and both diploid and polyploid asexual (i.e., apomictic) lineages. Here, we demonstrate a strong association between a transcriptionally conserved allele and apomictic seed formation. We then use this allele as a proxy apomixis marker in 1,649 accessions to demonstrate that apomixis is likely to be a common feature across the Boechera phylogeny. Phylogeographic analyses of these data demonstrate (i) species-specific niche differentiation in sexuals, (ii) extensive niche conservation between differing reproductive modes of the same species, (iii) ploidy-specific niche differentiation within and among species, and (iv) occasional niche drift between apomicts and their sexual ancestors. We conclude that ploidy is a substantially stronger and more common driver of niche divergence within and across Boechera species although variation in both traits may not necessarily lead to niche evolution on the species scale.

  4. CyberShake: A Physics-Based Seismic Hazard Model for Southern California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graves, R.; Jordan, T.H.; Callaghan, S.; Deelman, E.; Field, E.; Juve, G.; Kesselman, C.; Maechling, P.; Mehta, G.; Milner, K.; Okaya, D.; Small, P.; Vahi, K.

    2011-01-01

    CyberShake, as part of the Southern California Earthquake Center's (SCEC) Community Modeling Environment, is developing a methodology that explicitly incorporates deterministic source and wave propagation effects within seismic hazard calculations through the use of physics-based 3D ground motion simulations. To calculate a waveform-based seismic hazard estimate for a site of interest, we begin with Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 2.0 (UCERF2.0) and identify all ruptures within 200 km of the site of interest. We convert the UCERF2.0 rupture definition into multiple rupture variations with differing hypocenter locations and slip distributions, resulting in about 415,000 rupture variations per site. Strain Green Tensors are calculated for the site of interest using the SCEC Community Velocity Model, Version 4 (CVM4), and then, using reciprocity, we calculate synthetic seismograms for each rupture variation. Peak intensity measures are then extracted from these synthetics and combined with the original rupture probabilities to produce probabilistic seismic hazard curves for the site. Being explicitly site-based, CyberShake directly samples the ground motion variability at that site over many earthquake cycles (i. e., rupture scenarios) and alleviates the need for the ergodic assumption that is implicitly included in traditional empirically based calculations. Thus far, we have simulated ruptures at over 200 sites in the Los Angeles region for ground shaking periods of 2 s and longer, providing the basis for the first generation CyberShake hazard maps. Our results indicate that the combination of rupture directivity and basin response effects can lead to an increase in the hazard level for some sites, relative to that given by a conventional Ground Motion Prediction Equation (GMPE). Additionally, and perhaps more importantly, we find that the physics-based hazard results are much more sensitive to the assumed magnitude-area relations and

  5. Trophic niche shifts driven by phytoplankton in sandy beach ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bergamino, Leandro; Martínez, Ana; Han, Eunah; Lercari, Diego; Defeo, Omar

    2016-10-01

    Stable isotopes (δ13C and δ15N) together with chlorophyll a and densities of surf diatoms were used to analyze changes in trophic niches of species in two sandy beaches of Uruguay with contrasting morphodynamics (i.e. dissipative vs. reflective). Consumers and food sources were collected over four seasons, including sediment organic matter (SOM), suspended particulate organic matter (POM) and the surf zone diatom Asterionellopsis guyunusae. Circular statistics and a Bayesian isotope mixing model were used to quantify food web differences between beaches. Consumers changed their trophic niche between beaches in the same direction of the food web space towards higher reliance on surf diatoms in the dissipative beach. Mixing models indicated that A. guyunusae was the primary nutrition source for suspension feeders in the dissipative beach, explaining their change in dietary niche compared to the reflective beach where the proportional contribution of surf diatoms was low. The high C/N ratios in A. guyunusae indicated its high nutritional value and N content, and may help to explain the high assimilation by suspension feeders at the dissipative beach. Furthermore, density of A. guyunusae was higher in the dissipative than in the reflective beach, and cell density was positively correlated with chlorophyll a only in the dissipative beach. Therefore, surf diatoms are important drivers in the dynamics of sandy beach food webs, determining the trophic niche space and productivity. Our study provides valuable insights on shifting foraging behavior by beach fauna in response to changes in resource availability.

  6. 高技术服务创新网络生态位重叠企业竞合关系建模与仿真%Modeling and Simulation of Coopetition Relationship among Niche Overlap Enterprises Featuring High-tech Service Innovation Network

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    孙耀吾; 韩冰; 黄万艮

    2014-01-01

    在高技术服务创新网络中,参与主体生态位重叠与竞合关系复杂。应用生态位理论中 Lotka-Volt-erra 原理,构建企业生态位演化模型群,并进行系统仿真,揭示不同类型高技术服务创新网络参与主体的动态竞合关系。研究结果表明,生态位重叠的创新主体间只有采取合作共生模式,才会产生企业生态位协同进化;片面追求自身发展的单向思维模式,反而可能导致企业生态位被逐渐侵蚀。该研究结论对于探索科学治理创新网络、促进企业协同发展具有重要启示。%Niche overlap and coopetition relationship of participants are complex in the high-tech service innovation network. We build a model group of enterprise niche evolutionary based on Lotka-Volterra principle of the niche theory with a simu-lation to reveal dynamic coopetition relationship among different participants in high-tech service innovation network.The conclusion shows that only if the innovators with niche overlap take cooperative symbiosis style,can they get niche coevolu-tion;unidirectional thinking of pursuing respective development may cause erosion of enterprise niche gradually,which have important enlightenment to exploring scientific governance of innovation network and promoting the collaborative de-velopment of enterprises.

  7. Shifting Niches for Community Structure Detection

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grappiolo, Corrado; Togelius, Julian; Yannakakis, Georgios N.

    2013-01-01

    We present a new evolutionary algorithm for com- munity structure detection in both undirected and unweighted (sparse) graphs and fully connected weighted digraphs (complete networks). Previous investigations have found that, although evolutionary computation can identify community structure...... in complete networks, this approach seems to scale badly due to solutions with the wrong number of communities dominating the population. The new algorithm is based on a niching model, where separate compartments of the population contain candidate solutions with different numbers of communities. We...... experimentally compare the new algorithm to the well-known algorithms of Pizzuti and Tasgin, and find that we outperform those algorithms for sparse graphs under some conditions, and drastically outperform them on complete networks under all tested conditions....

  8. NICHE: The Non-Imaging CHErenkov Array

    CERN Document Server

    Bergman, Douglas

    2012-01-01

    The accurate measurement of the Cosmic Ray (CR) nuclear composition around and above the Knee (~ 10^15.5 eV) has been difficult due to uncertainties inherent to the measurement techniques and/or dependence on hadronic Monte Carlo simulation models required to interpret the data. Measurement of the Cherenkov air shower signal, calibrated with air fluorescence measurements, offers a methodology to provide an accurate measurement of the nuclear composition evolution over a large energy range. NICHE will use an array of widely-spaced, non-imaging Cherenkov counters to measure the amplitude and time-spread of the air shower Cherenkov signal to extract CR nuclear composition measurements and to cross-calibrate the Cherenkov energy and composition measurements with TA/TALE fluorescence and surface detector measurements.

  9. Tectonic map of the Death Valley ground-water model area, Nevada and California

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The purpose of this map is to provide tectonic interpretations in the Death Valley ground-water model area to be incorporated into a transient ground-water flow model by the U.S. Geological Survey (D'Agnese, 2000; D'Agnese and Faunt, 1999; Faunt and others, 1999; and O'Brien and others, 1999). This work has been conducted in collaboration with the U.S. Department of Energy in order to assess regional ground-water flow near the Nevada Test Site (NTS) and the potential radioactive waste repository at Yucca Mountain. The map is centered on the NTS and its perimeter encircles the entire boundary of the numerical flow model area, covering a total area of 57,000 square kilometers. This tectonic map is a derivative map of the geologic map of the Death Valley ground-water model, Nevada and California (Workman and others, 2002). Structures portrayed on the tectonic map were selected from the geologic map based upon several criteria including amount of offset on faults, regional significance of structures, fault juxtaposition of rocks with significantly different hydrologic properties, and the hydrologic properties of the structures themselves. Inferred buried structures in the basins were included on the map (blue and light blue dotted lines) based on interpretation of geophysical data (Ponce and others, 2001; Ponce and Blakely, 2001; Blakely and Ponce, 2001). In addition, various regional trends of fault zones have been delineated which are composed of multiple smaller scale features. In some cases, these structures are deeply buried and their location is based primarily on geophysical evidence. In all cases, these zones (shown as broad red and blue stippled bands on the map) are significant structures in the region. Finally, surface exposures of Precambrian crystalline rocks and igneous intrusions of various ages are highlighted (red and blue patterns) on the map; these rocks generally act as barriers to groundwater flow unless significantly fractured

  10. Modeling of Geodetic Crustal Motion Velocities in Southern California: Undergraduate Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGill, S. F.; Barley, M. E.; Hams, J. E.; Hobart, K.; Ramirez, J.; Fryxell, J. E.; Lyzenga, G. A.; McGill, J. D.

    2003-12-01

    With funding from the National Science Foundation's Opportunities for Enhancing Diversity in the Geosciences, we have undertaken a project with two primary goals: (1) to introduce undergraduate students and K-14 educators to research in geology/geophysics, and (2) to use GPS to monitor deformation across the boundary between the Pacific and North American plates in southern California, and to model the slip on specific faults that could be responsible for that deformation. Starting in July 2002, we collected campaign-style GPS data twice a year from 13 sites along a line across the San Andreas and San Jacinto faults from Norco through San Bernardino to Lucerne Valley. We are also modeling data from the SCEC Crustal Deformation Velocity Map 2.0 [http://www.scecdc.scec.org/group_e/release.v2/]. Our initial approach has been to use a one-dimensional model of dislocations in an elastic half-space. We are studying the portion of the plate boundary from San Bernardino southward to the U.S.-Mexico border. We have divided this region into seven transects that are perpendicular to the plate boundary. We used a spreadsheet macro to systematically model a range of slip rates and locking depths for each fault. Out of hundreds or thousands of possible combinations for each transect, we sorted the models according to their goodness of fit, using the sum of the squares of the residuals as a criterion. We are also beginning to use the program Simplex (G. Lyzenga. J. Parker) to model the velocity data from all transects simultaneously. This will allow us to take into account the complex fault geometry of the region. Our preliminary results from the one-dimensional modeling suggest that the best-fitting slip rate of the San Andreas fault is 26 mm/yr for the section from Indio to Durmid. However, slip rates in the range of 20-30 mm/yr also fit the geodetic data relatively well. Slip rates of 15 or 35 mm/yr do not fit well. For the San Jacinto fault, the best-fitting slip rate is 13

  11. 2009-2011 CA Coastal California TopoBathy Merged Project Digital Elevation Model (DEM)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This project merged recently collected topographic, bathymetric, and acoustic elevation data along the entire California coastline from approximately the 10 meter...

  12. 2013 NOAA Coastal California TopoBathy Merge Project Digital Elevation Model (DEM)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This project merged recently collected topographic, bathymetric, and acoustic elevation data along the entire California coastline from approximately the 10 meter...

  13. Applicability of Related Data, Algorithms, and Models to the Simulation of Ground-Coupled Residential Hot Water Piping in California

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Residential water heating is an important consideration in California?s building energy efficiency standard. Explicit treatment of ground-coupled hot water piping is one of several planned improvements to the standard. The properties of water, piping, insulation, backfill materials, concrete slabs, and soil, their interactions, and their variations with temperature and over time are important considerations in the required supporting analysis. Heat transfer algorithms and models devised for generalized, hot water distribution system, ground-source heat pump and ground heat exchanger, nuclear waste repository, buried oil pipeline, and underground electricity transmission cable applications can be adapted to the simulation of under-slab water piping. A numerical model that permits detailed examination of and broad variations in many inputs while employing a technique to conserve computer run time is recommended.

  14. INTEGRATED MODELING OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTAL OCEAN: BIOGEOCHEMISTRY AND PARTICULATE DYNAMICS

    OpenAIRE

    Stolzenbach, Keith D.; Mcwilliams, James C.

    2002-01-01

    The Southern California Coastal Ocean (SCCO), defined as the region inclusive of the Southern California Bight and the Santa Barbara Channel, from the shoreline to beyond the continental shelf, has significant anthropogenic injections of many materials through the air, rivers, runoff, outfalls, sediments, and marine spills. These inputs are superposed on a dynamic system of internal processes including water motions, biological production in the surface layers, particle sinking, dissolution...

  15. Desert shrub responses to experimental modification of precipitation seasonality and soil depth: relationship to the two-layer model and ecohydrological niche

    Science.gov (United States)

    Germino, Matthew J.; Reinhardt, Keith

    2013-01-01

    1. Ecohydrological niches are important for understanding plant community responses to climate shifts, particularly in dry lands. According to the two-layer hypothesis, selective use of deep-soil water increases growth or persistence of woody species during warm and dry summer periods and thereby contributes to their coexistence with shallow-rooted herbs in dry ecosystems. The resource-pool hypothesis further suggests that shallow-soil water benefits growth of all plants while deep-soil water primarily enhances physiological maintenance and survival of woody species. Few studies have directly tested these by manipulating deep-soil water availability and observing the long-term outcomes. 2. We predicted that factors promoting infiltration and storage of water in deep soils, specifically greater winter precipitation and soil depth, would enhance Artemisia tridentata (big sagebrush) in cold, winter-wet/summer-dry desert. Sagebrush responses to 20 years of winter irrigation were compared to summer- or no irrigation, on plots having relatively deep or shallow soils (2 m vs. 1 m depths). 3. Winter irrigation increased sagebrush cover, and crown and canopy volumes, but not density (individuals/plot) compared to summer or no irrigation, on deep-soil plots. On shallow-soil plots, winter irrigation surprisingly decreased shrub cover and size, and summer irrigation had no effect. Furthermore, multiple regression suggested that the variations in growth were related (i) firstly to water in shallow soils (0-0.2 m) and secondly to deeper soils (> 1 m deep) and (ii) more by springtime than by midsummer soil water. Water-use efficiency increased considerably on shallow soils without irrigation and was lowest with winter irrigation. 4. Synthesis. Sagebrush was more responsive to the seasonal timing of precipitation than to total annual precipitation. Factors that enhanced deep-water storage (deeper soils plus more winter precipitation) led to increases in Artemisia tridentata that

  16. An Adaptive Niching Genetic Algorithm using a niche size equalization mechanism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nagata, Yuichi

    Niching GAs have been widely investigated to apply genetic algorithms (GAs) to multimodal function optimization problems. In this paper, we suggest a new niching GA that attempts to form niches, each consisting of an equal number of individuals. The proposed GA can be applied also to combinatorial optimization problems by defining a distance metric in the search space. We apply the proposed GA to the job-shop scheduling problem (JSP) and demonstrate that the proposed niching method enhances the ability to maintain niches and improve the performance of GAs.

  17. Estimating California ecosystem carbon change using process model and land cover disturbance data: 1951-2000

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, J.; Vogelmann, J.E.; Zhu, Z.; Key, C.H.; Sleeter, B.M.; Price, D.T.; Chen, J.M.; Cochrane, M.A.; Eidenshink, J.C.; Howard, S.M.; Bliss, N.B.; Jiang, H.

    2011-01-01

    Land use change, natural disturbance, and climate change directly alter ecosystem productivity and carbon stock level. The estimation of ecosystem carbon dynamics depends on the quality of land cover change data and the effectiveness of the ecosystem models that represent the vegetation growth processes and disturbance effects. We used the Integrated Biosphere Simulator (IBIS) and a set of 30- to 60-m resolution fire and land cover change data to examine the carbon changes of California's forests, shrublands, and grasslands. Simulation results indicate that during 1951-2000, the net primary productivity (NPP) increased by 7%, from 72.2 to 77.1TgCyr-1 (1 teragram=1012g), mainly due to CO2 fertilization, since the climate hardly changed during this period. Similarly, heterotrophic respiration increased by 5%, from 69.4 to 73.1TgCyr-1, mainly due to increased forest soil carbon and temperature. Net ecosystem production (NEP) was highly variable in the 50-year period but on average equalled 3.0TgCyr-1 (total of 149TgC). As with NEP, the net biome production (NBP) was also highly variable but averaged -0.55TgCyr-1 (total of -27.3TgC) because NBP in the 1980s was very low (-5.34TgCyr-1). During the study period, a total of 126Tg carbon were removed by logging and land use change, and 50Tg carbon were directly removed by wildland fires. For carbon pools, the estimated total living upper canopy (tree) biomass decreased from 928 to 834TgC, and the understory (including shrub and grass) biomass increased from 59 to 63TgC. Soil carbon and dead biomass carbon increased from 1136 to 1197TgC. Our analyses suggest that both natural and human processes have significant influence on the carbon change in California. During 1951-2000, climate interannual variability was the key driving force for the large interannual changes of ecosystem carbon source and sink at the state level, while logging and fire were the dominant driving forces for carbon balances in several specific

  18. Target Article with Commentaries: Developmental Niche Construction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flynn, Emma G.; Laland, Kevin N.; Kendal, Rachel L.; Kendal, Jeremy R.

    2013-01-01

    Niche construction is the modification of components of the environment through an organism's activities. Humans modify their environments mainly through ontogenetic and cultural processes, and it is this reliance on learning, plasticity and culture that lends human niche construction a special potency. In this paper we aim to facilitate…

  19. Performance and Economic Modeling of Horizontally Drilled Ground-Source Heat Pumps in Select California Climates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wiryadinata, Steven

    Service life modeling was performed to gage the viability of unitary 3.5 kWt, ground-source terminal heat pumps (GTHP) employing horizontal directionally drilled geothermal heat exchangers (GHX) over air-source terminal heat pumps (PTHP) in hotels and motels and residential apartment building sectors in California's coastal and inland climates. Results suggest the GTHP can reduce hourly peak demand for the utility by 7%-25% compared to PTHP, depending on the climate and building type. The annual energy savings, which range from -1% to 5%, are highly dependent on the GTHP pump energy use relative to the energy savings attributed to the difference in ground and air temperatures (DeltaT). In mild climates with small ?T, the pump energy use may overcome any advantage to utilizing a GHX. The majority of total levelized cost savings - ranging from 0.18/ft2 to 0.3/ft 2 - are due to reduced maintenance and lifetime capital cost normally associated with geothermal heat pump systems. Without these reductions (not validated for the GTHP system studied), the GTHP technology does not appear to offer significant advantages over PTHP in the climate zones studied here. The GTHP levelized cost was most sensitive to variations in installed cost and in some cases, energy use (influenced by climate zone choice), which together highlights the importance of climate selection for installation, and the need for larger market penetration of ground-source systems in order to bring down installed costs as the technology matures.

  20. Ontogenetic niche shifts in three Vaccinium species on a sub-alpine mountain side

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Auffret, Alistair G.; Meineri, Eric; Bruun, Hans Henrik;

    2010-01-01

    Background: Climate warming in arctic and alpine regions is expected to result in the altitudinal migration of plant species, but current predictions neglect differences between species' regeneration niche and established niche. Aims: To examine potential recruitment of Vaccinium myrtillus, V...... recruitment in habitats at altitudes above its current populations. Conclusions: The potential for migration exists, but incongruence between regenerative and established niches presents a challenge for colonisers, as well as for plant migration modelling...

  1. An integrated ecosystem trophic model for the North and Central Gulf of California: An alternative view for endemic species conservation

    OpenAIRE

    Díaz-Uribe, J. Gabriel; Arreguín Sánchez, Francisco; Lercari-Bernier, Diego; Cruz Escalona, Víctor Hugo; Zetina Rejón, Manuel Jesús; Del Monte Luna, Pablo; Martínez-Aguilar, Susana

    2012-01-01

    Understanding of the intricate interactions of endemic species with anthropogenic impacts of diverse economic interests on ecosystems is of paramount importance to the implementation of effective con-servation programs. A trophic mass-balance model was used to analyze the structural properties of the North and Central Gulf of California (NC-GulfCal) ecosystem, the most important fishing area in Mexico and where conservation efforts for protecting the endangered endemic porpoise known as vaqui...

  2. A-Priori Rupture Models for Northern California Type-A Faults

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wills, Chris J.; Weldon, Ray J.; Field, Edward H.

    2008-01-01

    This appendix describes how a-priori rupture models were developed for the northern California Type-A faults. As described in the main body of this report, and in Appendix G, ?a-priori? models represent an initial estimate of the rate of single and multi-segment surface ruptures on each fault. Whether or not a given model is moment balanced (i.e., satisfies section slip-rate data) depends on assumptions made regarding the average slip on each segment in each rupture (which in turn depends on the chosen magnitude-area relationship). Therefore, for a given set of assumptions, or branch on the logic tree, the methodology of the present Working Group (WGCEP-2007) is to find a final model that is as close as possible to the a-priori model, in the least squares sense, but that also satisfies slip rate and perhaps other data. This is analogous the WGCEP- 2002 approach of effectively voting on the relative rate of each possible rupture, and then finding the closest moment-balance model (under a more limiting set of assumptions than adopted by the present WGCEP, as described in detail in Appendix G). The 2002 Working Group Report (WCCEP, 2003, referred to here as WGCEP-2002), created segmented earthquake rupture forecast models for all faults in the region, including some that had been designated as Type B faults in the NSHMP, 1996, and one that had not previously been considered. The 2002 National Seismic Hazard Maps used the values from WGCEP-2002 for all the faults in the region, essentially treating all the listed faults as Type A faults. As discussed in Appendix A, the current WGCEP found that there are a number of faults with little or no data on slip-per-event, or dates of previous earthquakes. As a result, the WGCEP recommends that faults with minimal available earthquake recurrence data: the Greenville, Mount Diablo, San Gregorio, Monte Vista-Shannon and Concord-Green Valley be modeled as Type B faults to be consistent with similarly poorly-known faults statewide

  3. Geographical parthenogenesis: General purpose genotypes and frozen niche variation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vrijenhoek, Robert C.; Parker, Dave

    2009-01-01

    hypotheses concerning the evolution of niche breadth in asexual species - the "general-purpose genotype" (GPG) and "frozen niche-variation" (FNV) models. The two models are often portrayed as mutually exclusive, respectively viewing clonal lineages as generalists versus specialists. Nonetheless......, they are complex syllogisms that share common assumptions regarding the likely origins of clonal diversity and the strength of interclonal selection in shaping the ecological breadth of asexual populations. Both models find support in ecological and phylogeographic studies of a wide range of organisms......, and sometimes generalist and specialist traits (e.g., physiological tolerance, microspatial preference, seasonal abundance, food habits, etc.) are found together in an asexual organism. Ultimately, persistent natural clones should be viewed as microspecies in ecological models that consider spatial and temporal...

  4. The Cell as the First Niche Construction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Torday, John S

    2016-01-01

    Niche construction nominally describes how organisms can form their own environments, increasing their capacity to adapt to their surroundings. It is hypothesized that the formation of the first cell as 'internal' Niche Construction was the foundation for life, and that subsequent niche constructions were iterative exaptations of that event. The first instantation of niche construction has been faithfully adhered to by returning to the unicellular state, suggesting that the life cycle is zygote to zygote, not adult to adult as is commonly held. The consequent interactions between niche construction and epigenetic inheritance provide a highly robust, interactive, mechanistic way of thinking about evolution being determined by initial conditions rather than merely by chance mutation and selection. This novel perspective offers an opportunity to reappraise the processes involved in evolution mechanistically, allowing for scientifically testable hypotheses rather than relying on metaphors, dogma, teleology and tautology. PMID:27136594

  5. The Cell as the First Niche Construction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Torday, John S

    2016-04-28

    Niche construction nominally describes how organisms can form their own environments, increasing their capacity to adapt to their surroundings. It is hypothesized that the formation of the first cell as 'internal' Niche Construction was the foundation for life, and that subsequent niche constructions were iterative exaptations of that event. The first instantation of niche construction has been faithfully adhered to by returning to the unicellular state, suggesting that the life cycle is zygote to zygote, not adult to adult as is commonly held. The consequent interactions between niche construction and epigenetic inheritance provide a highly robust, interactive, mechanistic way of thinking about evolution being determined by initial conditions rather than merely by chance mutation and selection. This novel perspective offers an opportunity to reappraise the processes involved in evolution mechanistically, allowing for scientifically testable hypotheses rather than relying on metaphors, dogma, teleology and tautology.

  6. The Cell as the First Niche Construction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John S. Torday

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Niche construction nominally describes how organisms can form their own environments, increasing their capacity to adapt to their surroundings. It is hypothesized that the formation of the first cell as ‘internal’ Niche Construction was the foundation for life, and that subsequent niche constructions were iterative exaptations of that event. The first instantation of niche construction has been faithfully adhered to by returning to the unicellular state, suggesting that the life cycle is zygote to zygote, not adult to adult as is commonly held. The consequent interactions between niche construction and epigenetic inheritance provide a highly robust, interactive, mechanistic way of thinking about evolution being determined by initial conditions rather than merely by chance mutation and selection. This novel perspective offers an opportunity to reappraise the processes involved in evolution mechanistically, allowing for scientifically testable hypotheses rather than relying on metaphors, dogma, teleology and tautology.

  7. Niche as a determinant of word fate in online groups.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eduardo G Altmann

    Full Text Available Patterns of word use both reflect and influence a myriad of human activities and interactions. Like other entities that are reproduced and evolve, words rise or decline depending upon a complex interplay between their intrinsic properties and the environments in which they function. Using Internet discussion communities as model systems, we define the concept of a word niche as the relationship between the word and the characteristic features of the environments in which it is used. We develop a method to quantify two important aspects of the size of the word niche: the range of individuals using the word and the range of topics it is used to discuss. Controlling for word frequency, we show that these aspects of the word niche are strong determinants of changes in word frequency. Previous studies have already indicated that word frequency itself is a correlate of word success at historical time scales. Our analysis of changes in word frequencies over time reveals that the relative sizes of word niches are far more important than word frequencies in the dynamics of the entire vocabulary at shorter time scales, as the language adapts to new concepts and social groupings. We also distinguish endogenous versus exogenous factors as additional contributors to the fates of words, and demonstrate the force of this distinction in the rise of novel words. Our results indicate that short-term nonstationarity in word statistics is strongly driven by individual proclivities, including inclinations to provide novel information and to project a distinctive social identity.

  8. The clumping transition in niche competition: a robust critical phenomenon

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    We show analytically and numerically that the appearance of lumps and gaps in the distribution of n competing species along a niche axis is a robust phenomenon whenever the finiteness of the niche space is taken into account. In this case, depending on whether the niche width of the species σ is above or below a threshold σc, which for large n coincides with 2/n, there are two different regimes. For σ > σc the lumpy pattern emerges directly from the dominant eigenvector of the competition matrix because its corresponding eigenvalue becomes negative. For σ ≤ σc the lumpy pattern disappears. Furthermore, this clumping transition exhibits critical slowing down as σ is approached from above. We also find that the number of lumps of the species distribution versus σ displays a stair-step structure. The positions of these steps are distributed according to a power law. It is thus straightforward to predict the number of groups that can be packed along a niche axis and this value is consistent with field measurements for a wide range of the model parameters

  9. West Coast fish, mammal, and bird species diets - Developing end-to-end models of the California Current Large Marine Ecosystem

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The purpose of this project is to develop spatially discrete end-to-end models of the California Current LME, linking oceanography, biogeochemistry, food web...

  10. West Coast fish, mammal, bird life history and abunance parameters - Developing end-to-end models of the California Current Large Marine Ecosystem

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The purpose of this project is to develop spatially discrete end-to-end models of the California Current LME, linking oceanography, biogeochemistry, food web...

  11. California's Methane Budget derived from CalNex P-3 Aircraft Observations and the WRF-STILT Lagrangian Transport Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santoni, G. W.; Xiang, B.; Kort, E. A.; Daube, B.; Andrews, A. E.; Sweeney, C.; Wecht, K.; Peischl, J.; Ryerson, T. B.; Angevine, W. M.; Trainer, M.; Nehrkorn, T.; Eluszkiewicz, J.; Wofsy, S. C.

    2012-12-01

    We present constraints on California emission inventories of methane (CH4) using atmospheric observations from nine NOAA P-3 flights during the California Nexus (CalNex) campaign in May and June of 2010. Measurements were made using a quantum cascade laser spectrometer (QCLS) and a cavity ring-down spectrometer (CRDS) and calibrated to NOAA standards in-flight. Five flights sampled above the northern and southern central valley and an additional four flights probed the south coast air basin, quantifying emissions from the Los Angeles basin. The data show large (>100 ppb) CH4 enhancements associated with point and area sources such as cattle and manure management, landfills, wastewater treatment, gas production and distribution infrastructure, and rice agriculture. We compare aircraft observations to modeled CH4 distributions by accounting for a) transport using the Stochastic Time-Inverted Lagrangian Transport (STILT) model driven by Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) meteorology, b) emissions from inventories such as EDGAR and ones constructed from California-specific state and county databases, each gridded to 0.1° x 0.1° resolution, and c) spatially and temporally evolving boundary conditions such as GEOS-Chem and a NOAA aircraft profile measurement derived curtain imposed at the edge of the WRF domain. After accounting for errors associated with transport, planetary boundary layer height, lateral boundary conditions, seasonality of emissions, and the spatial resolution of surface emission prior estimates, we find that the California Air Resources Board (CARB) CH4 budget is a factor of 1.64 too low. Using a Bayesian inversion to the flight data, we estimate California's CH4 budget to be 2.5 TgCH4/yr, with emissions from cattle and manure management, landfills, rice, and natural gas infrastructure, representing roughly 82%, 26%, 9% and 32% (sum = 149% with other sources accounting for the additional 15%) of the current CARB CH4 budget estimate of 1.52 TgCH4

  12. Not all renal stem cell niches are the same: anatomy of an evolution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Clara Gerosa

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available The renal stem cell niche represents the most important structure of the developing kidney, responsible for nephrogenesis. Recently, some Authors have reported, at ultrastructural level, a previously unknown complexity of the architecture of renal stem cell niche in experimental models. This study was aimed at studying, at histological level, the anatomy of renal stem cell niches in the human fetal kidney. To this end, ten fetal kidneys, whose gestational ages ranged from 11 up to 24 weeks, were studied. H&E-stained sections were observed at high power. The study of the anatomy of renal stem cell niches in the human kidney revealed a previously unreported complexity: some niches appeared as a roundish arrangement of mesenchymal cells; others showed the initial phases of induction by ureteric buds; in other niches the process of mesenchymal epithelial transition was more evident; finally, in other stem cell niches the first signs of nephron origin were detectable. These findings suggest the existence of niches with different anatomy in the same kidney, indicating different stages of evolution even in adjacent niches. All stem cell niches were in strict contact with the capsular cells, suggesting a major role of the renal capsule in nephrogenesis. Finally, our study confirms the existence of a strict contact between the bud tip cells and the surrounding mesenchyme in the human developing kidney, giving a morphological support to the theory of intercellular channels allowing the passage of transcription factors from the epithelial to the mesenchymal stem/progenitors cells.Proceedings of the 2nd International Course on Perinatal Pathology (part of the 11th International Workshop on Neonatology · October 26th-31st, 2015 · Cagliari (Italy · October 31st, 2015 · Stem cells: present and future Guest Editors: Gavino Faa, Vassilios Fanos, Antonio Giordano

  13. Niche-habitat mechanisms and biotic interactions explain the coexistence and abundance of congeneric sandgrouse species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benítez-López, Ana; Viñuela, Javier; Suárez, Francisco; Hervás, Israel; García, Jesús T

    2014-09-01

    Ascertaining which niche processes allow coexistence between closely related species is of special interest in ecology. We quantified variations in the environmental niches and densities of two congeneric species, the pin-tailed and the black-bellied sandgrouse (Pterocles alchata and Pterocles orientalis) in allopatry and sympatry under similar abiotic, habitat and dispersal contexts to understand their coexistence. Using principal component analysis, we defined environmental gradients (niche dimensions) including abiotic, habitat and anthropogenic variables, and calculated niche breadth, position and overlap of both species in sympatry and allopatry. Additionally, sandgrouse density was modelled as a function of the niche dimensions and the density of the other species. We found evidence that each species occupies distinct environmental niches in sympatry and in allopatry. The black-bellied sandgrouse exploits a broader range of environmental conditions (wider niche breadth) while the pin-tailed sandgrouse reaches high densities where conditions seem to match its optimum. In sympatry, both species shift their niches to intermediate positions, indicating the importance of abiotic factors in setting coexistence areas. Environmental conditions determine regional densities of pin-tailed sandgrouse whereas biotic interactions explain the density of the black-bellied sandgrouse in areas with abiotic conditions similarly conducive for both species. Highly suitable areas for the pin-tailed sandgrouse fall beyond the upper thermal limit of the black-bellied sandgrouse, leading to niche segregation and low densities for the latter. Finally, local niche shift and expansion plus possible heterospecific aggregation allow the pin-tailed sandgrouse to thrive in a priori less favourable environments. This work provides insight into how different mechanisms allow species coexistence and how species densities vary in sympatry compared to allopatry as a result of environmental

  14. Adhesion in the stem cell niche: biological roles and regulation

    OpenAIRE

    Chen, Shuyi; Lewallen, Michelle; Xie, Ting

    2013-01-01

    Stem cell self-renewal is tightly controlled by the concerted action of stem cell-intrinsic factors and signals within the niche. Niche signals often function within a short range, allowing cells in the niche to self-renew while their daughters outside the niche differentiate. Thus, in order for stem cells to continuously self-renew, they are often anchored in the niche via adhesion molecules. In addition to niche anchoring, however, recent studies have revealed other important roles for adhe...

  15. Field Scale Groundwater Nitrate Loading Model for the Central Valley, California, 1945-Current

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harter, T.; Dzurella, K.; Bell, A.; Kourakos, G.

    2015-12-01

    Anthropogenic groundwater nitrate contamination in the Central Valley aquifer system, California, is widespread, with over 40% of domestic wells in some counties exceeding drinking water standards. Sources of groundwater nitrate include leaky municipal wastewater systems, municipal wastewater recharge, onsite wastewater treatment (septic) systems, atmospheric nitrogen deposition, animal farming, application of organic waste materials (sludge, biosolids, animal manure) to agricultural lands, and synthetic fertilizer. At the site or field scale, nitrogen inputs to the landscape are balanced by plant nitrogen uptake and harvest, atmospheric nitrogen losses, surface runoff of nitrogen, soil nitrogen storage changes, and leaching to groundwater. Irrigated agriculture is a dominant player in the Central Valley nitrogen cycle: The largest nitrogen fluxes are synthetic fertilizer and animal manure applications to cropland, crop nitrogen uptake, and groundwater nitrogen losses. We construct a historic field/parcel scale groundwater nitrogen loading model distinguishing urban and residential areas, individual animal farming areas, leaky wastewater lagoons, and approximately 50 different categories of agricultural crops. For non-agricultural landuses, groundwater nitrate loading is based on reported leaching values, animal population, and human population. For cropland, groundwater nitrate loading is computed from mass balance, taking into account diverse and historically changing management practices between different crops. Groundwater nitrate loading is estimated for 1945 to current. Significant increases in groundwater nitrate loading are associated with the expansion of synthetic fertilizer use in the 1950s to 1970s. Nitrate loading from synthetic fertilizer use has stagnated over the past 20 years due to improvements in nutrient use efficiency. However, an unbroken 60 year exponential increase in dairy production until the late 2000s has significantly impacted the

  16. Conclusions about niche expansion in introduced Impatiens walleriana populations depend on method of analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lisa Mandle

    Full Text Available Determining the degree to which climate niches are conserved across plant species' native and introduced ranges is valuable to developing successful strategies to limit the introduction and spread of invasive plants, and also has important ecological and evolutionary implications. Here, we test whether climate niches differ between native and introduced populations of Impatiens walleriana, globally one of the most popular horticultural species. We use approaches based on both raw climate data associated with occurrence points and ecological niche models (ENMs developed with Maxent. We include comparisons of climate niche breadth in both geographic and environmental spaces, taking into account differences in available habitats between the distributional areas. We find significant differences in climate envelopes between native and introduced populations when comparing raw climate variables, with introduced populations appearing to expand into wetter and cooler climates. However, analyses controlling for differences in available habitat in each region do not indicate expansion of climate niches. We therefore cannot reject the hypothesis that observed differences in climate envelopes reflect only the limited environments available within the species' native range in East Africa. Our results suggest that models built from only native range occurrence data will not provide an accurate prediction of the potential for invasiveness if applied to areas containing a greater range of environmental combinations, and that tests of niche expansion may overestimate shifts in climate niches if they do not control carefully for environmental differences between distributional areas.

  17. Simulation of proliferation and differentiation of cells in a stem-cell niche

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhdanov, Vladimir P.

    2008-10-01

    Stem-cell niches represent microscopic compartments formed of environmental cells that nurture stem cells and enable them to maintain tissue homeostasis. The spatio-temporal kinetics of proliferation and differentiation of cells in such niches depend on the specifics of the niche structure and on adhesion and communication between cells and may also be influenced by spatial constraints on cell division. We propose a generic lattice model, taking all these factors into account, and systematically illustrate their role. The model is motivated by the experimental data available for the niches located in the subventricular zone of adult mammalian brain. The general conclusions drawn from our Monte Carlo simulations are applicable to other niches as well. One of our main findings is that the kinetics under consideration are highly stochastic due to a relatively small number of cells proliferating and differentiating in a niche and the autocatalytic character of the symmetric cell division. In particular, the kinetics exhibit huge stochastic bursts especially if the adhesion between cells is taken into account. In addition, the results obtained show that despite the small number of cells present in stem-cell niches, their arrangement can be predetermined to appreciable extent provided that the adhesion of different cells is different so that they tend to segregate.

  18. Field Scale Groundwater Nitrate Loading Model for the Central Valley, California, 1945-Current

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harter, T.; Dzurella, K.; Bell, A.; Kourakos, G.

    2015-12-01

    Anthropogenic groundwater nitrate contamination in the Central Valley aquifer system, California, is widespread, with over 40% of domestic wells in some counties exceeding drinking water standards. Sources of groundwater nitrate include leaky municipal wastewater systems, municipal wastewater recharge, onsite wastewater treatment (septic) systems, atmospheric nitrogen deposition, animal farming, application of organic waste materials (sludge, biosolids, animal manure) to agricultural lands, and synthetic fertilizer. At the site or field scale, nitrogen inputs to the landscape are balanced by plant nitrogen uptake and harvest, atmospheric nitrogen losses, surface runoff of nitrogen, soil nitrogen storage changes, and leaching to groundwater. Irrigated agriculture is a dominant player in the Central Valley nitrogen cycle: The largest nitrogen fluxes are synthetic fertilizer and animal manure applications to cropland, crop nitrogen uptake, and groundwater nitrogen losses. We construct a historic field/parcel scale groundwater nitrogen loading model distinguishing urban and residential areas, individual animal farming areas, leaky wastewater lagoons, and approximately 50 different categories of agricultural crops. For non-agricultural landuses, groundwater nitrate loading is based on reported leaching values, animal population, and human population. For cropland, groundwater nitrate loading is computed from mass balance, taking into account diverse and historically changing management practices between different crops. Groundwater nitrate loading is estimated for 1945 to current. Significant increases in groundwater nitrate loading are associated with the expansion of synthetic fertilizer use in the 1950s to 1970s. Nitrate loading from synthetic fertilizer use has stagnated over the past 20 years due to improvements in nutrient use efficiency. However, an unbroken 60 year exponential increase in dairy production until the late 2000s has significantly impacted the

  19. Impact of boundary regions on the interior circulation of the California Current System in a regional modeling framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veneziani, M.; Edwards, C.; Moore, A.

    2008-12-01

    We use the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) to model the circulation of the California Current System (CCS) using ECCO-GODAE products to force the model at the open boundaries of the domain. We investigate the impact that lateral boundary forcing (and the boundary region in general) has on particular metrics of the interior circulation by adopting both an adjoint model and a traditional sensitivity approach. Adjoint methods are naturally suited to sensitivity studies as they provide the direct dependencies of circulation metrics on uncertainties of the model initial conditions, surface and lateral external forcing, and model parameters, but their results are only valid within the time scale during which the linearity assumption underlying adjoint models can be considered to hold. More traditional sensitivity studies must be conducted to investigate longer time scales. We describe the adjoint model results for two metrics that represent the upwelling processes of the Central California region and the mean sea level field of the coastal circulation, respectively. The spatial distribution of the adjoint sensitivity fields allows us to quantify the contribution of the boundary regions over a biweekly time scale. We investigate longer time scales by adopting two methods: 1) apply different ECCO products at the open boundaries and evaluate mean stratification changes in the CalCOFI coastal region; 2) release passive tracers at the boundaries and calculate ventilation time scales and pathways from the boundary areas to the CCS interior.

  20. Common cancer in a wild animal: the California sea lion (Zalophus californianus) as an emerging model for carcinogenesis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Browning, Helen M; Gulland, Frances M D; Hammond, John A; Colegrove, Kathleen M; Hall, Ailsa J

    2015-07-19

    Naturally occurring cancers in non-laboratory species have great potential in helping to decipher the often complex causes of neoplasia. Wild animal models could add substantially to our understanding of carcinogenesis, particularly of genetic and environmental interactions, but they are currently underutilized. Studying neoplasia in wild animals is difficult and especially challenging in marine mammals owing to their inaccessibility, lack of exposure history, and ethical, logistical and legal limits on experimentation. Despite this, California sea lions (Zalophus californianus) offer an opportunity to investigate risk factors for neoplasia development that have implications for terrestrial mammals and humans who share much of their environment and diet. A relatively accessible California sea lion population on the west coast of the USA has a high prevalence of urogenital carcinoma and is regularly sampled during veterinary care in wildlife rehabilitation centres. Collaborative studies have revealed that genotype, persistent organic pollutants and a herpesvirus are all associated with this cancer. This paper reviews research to date on the epidemiology and pathogenesis of urogenital carcinoma in this species, and presents the California sea lion as an important and currently underexploited wild animal model of carcinogenesis.

  1. Evaluation of Stream Loads Used to Calibrate a SPARROW Model for California, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Domagalski, J. L.; Saleh, D.

    2012-12-01

    A SPARROW (Spatially Referenced Regression on Watershed Attributes) Model is being developed for California. The model will be used to understand how Total Nitrogen (TN) and Total Phosphorus (TP) are transported from land to water from sources such as the atmosphere, fertilizer, soils, wastewater treatment facilities, etc., and relies on accurate calibration of mass loads obtained from water sampling at gauging stations in order to link mass at a location to upstream sources. Prior to input to the SPARROW model, the mass loads are calculated separately using a five-parameter log linear multi-regression model utilizing discharge, chemical measurements, time, and seasonal adjustments to obtain the best fit for the relationship of discharge and concentration. The gauging stations are situated in three ecological management zones as defined by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency: the Western Forested Mountains, the Central Valley, and the Xeric West. Load models for nitrogen have at times been shown to be positively biased when the form of TN is predominately nitrate. The regions under study have different sources of nitrogen, which will affect the form of TN transported. Some stream segments are natural settings (forested), while others are highly influenced by agriculture and urban (Central Valley) settings and others by arid climate (Xeric). These differences affect the form of TN transported (dissolved as nitrate or suspended in the form of organic nitrogen), and hence it is expected that the efficiency of the discharge-load model may not be uniform at all locations. Less than 10% of the TN is in the form of nitrate in streams of the western forested mountains, but about 30% is nitrate in the Central Valley and about 40% in the arid region. Model efficiency was evaluated using the Nash Sutcliffe (NS) equation, which examines the square of the residuals of modeled results and observed values after transforming the logarithm of loads back to the actual data

  2. Incorporating Anthropogenic Influences into Fire Probability Models: Effects of Human Activity and Climate Change on Fire Activity in California.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael L Mann

    Full Text Available The costly interactions between humans and wildfires throughout California demonstrate the need to understand the relationships between them, especially in the face of a changing climate and expanding human communities. Although a number of statistical and process-based wildfire models exist for California, there is enormous uncertainty about the location and number of future fires, with previously published estimates of increases ranging from nine to fifty-three percent by the end of the century. Our goal is to assess the role of climate and anthropogenic influences on the state's fire regimes from 1975 to 2050. We develop an empirical model that integrates estimates of biophysical indicators relevant to plant communities and anthropogenic influences at each forecast time step. Historically, we find that anthropogenic influences account for up to fifty percent of explanatory power in the model. We also find that the total area burned is likely to increase, with burned area expected to increase by 2.2 and 5.0 percent by 2050 under climatic bookends (PCM and GFDL climate models, respectively. Our two climate models show considerable agreement, but due to potential shifts in rainfall patterns, substantial uncertainty remains for the semiarid inland deserts and coastal areas of the south. Given the strength of human-related variables in some regions, however, it is clear that comprehensive projections of future fire activity should include both anthropogenic and biophysical influences. Previous findings of substantially increased numbers of fires and burned area for California may be tied to omitted variable bias from the exclusion of human influences. The omission of anthropogenic variables in our model would overstate the importance of climatic ones by at least 24%. As such, the failure to include anthropogenic effects in many models likely overstates the response of wildfire to climatic change.

  3. Incorporating Anthropogenic Influences into Fire Probability Models: Effects of Human Activity and Climate Change on Fire Activity in California.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mann, Michael L; Batllori, Enric; Moritz, Max A; Waller, Eric K; Berck, Peter; Flint, Alan L; Flint, Lorraine E; Dolfi, Emmalee

    2016-01-01

    The costly interactions between humans and wildfires throughout California demonstrate the need to understand the relationships between them, especially in the face of a changing climate and expanding human communities. Although a number of statistical and process-based wildfire models exist for California, there is enormous uncertainty about the location and number of future fires, with previously published estimates of increases ranging from nine to fifty-three percent by the end of the century. Our goal is to assess the role of climate and anthropogenic influences on the state's fire regimes from 1975 to 2050. We develop an empirical model that integrates estimates of biophysical indicators relevant to plant communities and anthropogenic influences at each forecast time step. Historically, we find that anthropogenic influences account for up to fifty percent of explanatory power in the model. We also find that the total area burned is likely to increase, with burned area expected to increase by 2.2 and 5.0 percent by 2050 under climatic bookends (PCM and GFDL climate models, respectively). Our two climate models show considerable agreement, but due to potential shifts in rainfall patterns, substantial uncertainty remains for the semiarid inland deserts and coastal areas of the south. Given the strength of human-related variables in some regions, however, it is clear that comprehensive projections of future fire activity should include both anthropogenic and biophysical influences. Previous findings of substantially increased numbers of fires and burned area for California may be tied to omitted variable bias from the exclusion of human influences. The omission of anthropogenic variables in our model would overstate the importance of climatic ones by at least 24%. As such, the failure to include anthropogenic effects in many models likely overstates the response of wildfire to climatic change. PMID:27124597

  4. Why do niches develop in Caesarean uterine scars? Hypotheses on the aetiology of niche development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vervoort, A J M W; Uittenbogaard, L B; Hehenkamp, W J K; Brölmann, H A M; Mol, B W J; Huirne, J A F

    2015-12-01

    Caesarean section (CS) results in the occurrence of the phenomenon 'niche'. A 'niche' describes the presence of a hypoechoic area within the myometrium of the lower uterine segment, reflecting a discontinuation of the myometrium at the site of a previous CS. Using gel or saline instillation sonohysterography, a niche is identified in the scar in more than half of the women who had had a CS, most with the uterus closed in one single layer, without closure of the peritoneum. An incompletely healed scar is a long-term complication of the CS and is associated with more gynaecological symptoms than is commonly acknowledged. Approximately 30% of women with a niche report spotting at 6-12 months after their CS. Other reported symptoms in women with a niche are dysmenorrhoea, chronic pelvic pain and dyspareunia. Given the association between a niche and gynaecological symptoms, obstetric complications and potentially with subfertility, it is important to elucidate the aetiology of niche development after CS in order to develop preventive strategies. Based on current published data and our observations during sonographic, hysteroscopic and laparoscopic evaluations of niches we postulate some hypotheses on niche development. Possible factors that could play a role in niche development include a very low incision through cervical tissue, inadequate suturing technique during closure of the uterine scar, surgical interventions that increase adhesion formation or patient-related factors that impair wound healing or increase inflammation or adhesion formation.

  5. New kinematic models for Pacific-North America Motion from 3 Ma to Present, II: Evidence for a “Baja California Shear Zone”

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dixon, Timothy; Farina, Fred; DeMets, Charles; Suarez-Vidal, Francisco; Fletcher, John; Marquez-Azua, Bertha; Miller, Meghan; Sanchez, Osvaldo; Umhoefer, Paul

    2000-12-01

    We use new models for present-day Pacific-North America motion to evaluate the tectonics of offshore regions west of the Californias. Vandenburg in coastal Alta California moves at the Pacific plate velocity within uncertainties (˜1 mm/yr) after correcting for strain accumulation on the San Andreas and San Gregorio-Hosgri faults with a model that includes a viscoelastic lower crust. Modeled and measured velocities at coastal sites in Baja California south of the Agua Blanca fault, a region that most previous models consider Pacific plate, differ by 3-8 mm/yr, with coastal sites moving slower that the Pacific plate. We interpret these discrepancies in terms of strain accumulation on known on-shore faults, combined with right lateral slip at a rate of 3-4 mm/yr on additional faults offshore peninsular Baja California in the Pacific. Offshore seismicity, offset Quaternary features along the west coast of Baja California, and a discrepancy between the magnetically determined spreading rate in the Gulf Rise and the total plate rate from a geological model provide independent evidence for a “Baja California shear zone.”

  6. Current and future niche of North and Central American sand flies (Diptera: psychodidae in climate change scenarios.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Moo-Llanes

    Full Text Available Ecological niche models are useful tools to infer potential spatial and temporal distributions in vector species and to measure epidemiological risk for infectious diseases such as the Leishmaniases. The ecological niche of 28 North and Central American sand fly species, including those with epidemiological relevance, can be used to analyze the vector's ecology and its association with transmission risk, and plan integrated regional vector surveillance and control programs. In this study, we model the environmental requirements of the principal North and Central American phlebotomine species and analyze three niche characteristics over future climate change scenarios: i potential change in niche breadth, ii direction and magnitude of niche centroid shifts, iii shifts in elevation range. Niche identity between confirmed or incriminated Leishmania vector sand flies in Mexico, and human cases were analyzed. Niche models were constructed using sand fly occurrence datapoints from Canada, USA, Mexico, Guatemala and Belize. Nine non-correlated bioclimatic and four topographic data layers were used as niche components using GARP in OpenModeller. Both B2 and A2 climate change scenarios were used with two general circulation models for each scenario (CSIRO and HadCM3, for 2020, 2050 and 2080. There was an increase in niche breadth to 2080 in both scenarios for all species with the exception of Lutzomyia vexator. The principal direction of niche centroid displacement was to the northwest (64%, while the elevation range decreased greatest for tropical, and least for broad-range species. Lutzomyia cruciata is the only epidemiologically important species with high niche identity with that of Leishmania spp. in Mexico. Continued landscape modification in future climate change will provide an increased opportunity for the geographic expansion of NCA sand flys' ENM and human exposure to vectors of Leishmaniases.

  7. Current and future niche of North and Central American sand flies (Diptera: psychodidae) in climate change scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moo-Llanes, David; Ibarra-Cerdeña, Carlos N; Rebollar-Téllez, Eduardo A; Ibáñez-Bernal, Sergio; González, Camila; Ramsey, Janine M

    2013-01-01

    Ecological niche models are useful tools to infer potential spatial and temporal distributions in vector species and to measure epidemiological risk for infectious diseases such as the Leishmaniases. The ecological niche of 28 North and Central American sand fly species, including those with epidemiological relevance, can be used to analyze the vector's ecology and its association with transmission risk, and plan integrated regional vector surveillance and control programs. In this study, we model the environmental requirements of the principal North and Central American phlebotomine species and analyze three niche characteristics over future climate change scenarios: i) potential change in niche breadth, ii) direction and magnitude of niche centroid shifts, iii) shifts in elevation range. Niche identity between confirmed or incriminated Leishmania vector sand flies in Mexico, and human cases were analyzed. Niche models were constructed using sand fly occurrence datapoints from Canada, USA, Mexico, Guatemala and Belize. Nine non-correlated bioclimatic and four topographic data layers were used as niche components using GARP in OpenModeller. Both B2 and A2 climate change scenarios were used with two general circulation models for each scenario (CSIRO and HadCM3), for 2020, 2050 and 2080. There was an increase in niche breadth to 2080 in both scenarios for all species with the exception of Lutzomyia vexator. The principal direction of niche centroid displacement was to the northwest (64%), while the elevation range decreased greatest for tropical, and least for broad-range species. Lutzomyia cruciata is the only epidemiologically important species with high niche identity with that of Leishmania spp. in Mexico. Continued landscape modification in future climate change will provide an increased opportunity for the geographic expansion of NCA sand flys' ENM and human exposure to vectors of Leishmaniases.

  8. Current and Future Niche of North and Central American Sand Flies (Diptera: Psychodidae) in Climate Change Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moo-Llanes, David; Ibarra-Cerdeña, Carlos N.; Rebollar-Téllez, Eduardo A.; Ibáñez-Bernal, Sergio; González, Camila; Ramsey, Janine M.

    2013-01-01

    Ecological niche models are useful tools to infer potential spatial and temporal distributions in vector species and to measure epidemiological risk for infectious diseases such as the Leishmaniases. The ecological niche of 28 North and Central American sand fly species, including those with epidemiological relevance, can be used to analyze the vector's ecology and its association with transmission risk, and plan integrated regional vector surveillance and control programs. In this study, we model the environmental requirements of the principal North and Central American phlebotomine species and analyze three niche characteristics over future climate change scenarios: i) potential change in niche breadth, ii) direction and magnitude of niche centroid shifts, iii) shifts in elevation range. Niche identity between confirmed or incriminated Leishmania vector sand flies in Mexico, and human cases were analyzed. Niche models were constructed using sand fly occurrence datapoints from Canada, USA, Mexico, Guatemala and Belize. Nine non-correlated bioclimatic and four topographic data layers were used as niche components using GARP in OpenModeller. Both B2 and A2 climate change scenarios were used with two general circulation models for each scenario (CSIRO and HadCM3), for 2020, 2050 and 2080. There was an increase in niche breadth to 2080 in both scenarios for all species with the exception of Lutzomyia vexator. The principal direction of niche centroid displacement was to the northwest (64%), while the elevation range decreased greatest for tropical, and least for broad-range species. Lutzomyia cruciata is the only epidemiologically important species with high niche identity with that of Leishmania spp. in Mexico. Continued landscape modification in future climate change will provide an increased opportunity for the geographic expansion of NCA sand flys' ENM and human exposure to vectors of Leishmaniases. PMID:24069478

  9. Three-dimensional connectivity in the Gulf of California based on a numerical model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santiago-García, M. W.; Marinone, S. G.; Velasco-Fuentes, O. U.

    2014-04-01

    Quantifying connectivity is useful for understanding the exchange and trapping of some tracers, such as fish larvae and nutrients. In the Gulf of California, connectivity studies have been limited to certain periods and regions. The current study investigated the connectivity among 17 areas, defined by the presence of eddies and weak or strong flows as obtained from a three-dimensional non-linear baroclinic model. The particles were released into the water column and advected for 28 days using an advection-diffusion scheme. The results revealed a seasonal connectivity pattern. In the northern region, particle trapping was greater during the cyclonic circulation period (June to September) compared with the anticyclonic period (November to March). This high retention was due to both the presence of a cyclonic eddy in the central portion of the region and the intense northwestward flow off the coast of Sonora. Retentions were low for the large island region due to the intense exchange between the northern and southern regions. East of Ángel de La Guarda Island the transport occurred predominantly towards the northwest due to the nearly permanent deep flow in that direction and to a branching of the surface flow among the large islands during the anticyclonic period and the northwestward low during the cyclonic period. In the peninsular and central areas of the southern region, retentions were high due to weak flows and the presence of eddies, respectively. The greatest retention and low dispersion of particles in practically all of the provinces were recorded during the transition periods of the circulation.

  10. Toxic volatile organic compounds in environmental tobacco smoke: Emission factors for modeling exposures of California populations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Daisey, J.M.; Mahanama, K.R.R.; Hodgson, A.T. [Lawrence Berkeley Lab., CA (United States)

    1994-10-01

    The primary objective of this study was to measure emission factors for selected toxic air contaminants in environmental tobacco smoke (ETS) using a room-sized environmental chamber. The emissions of 23 volatile organic compounds (VOCs), including, 1,3-butadiene, three aldehydes and two vapor-phase N-nitrosamines were determined for six commercial brands of cigarettes and reference cigarette 1R4F. The commercial brands were selected to represent 62.5% of the cigarettes smoked in California. For each brand, three cigarettes were machine smoked in the chamber. The experiments were conducted over four hours to investigate the effects of aging. Emission factors of the target compounds were also determined for sidestream smoke (SS). For almost all target compounds, the ETS emission factors were significantly higher than the corresponding SS values probably due to less favorable combustion conditions and wall losses in the SS apparatus. Where valid comparisons could be made, the ETS emission factors were generally in good agreement with the literature. Therefore, the ETS emission factors, rather than the SS values, are recommended for use in models to estimate population exposures from this source. The variabilities in the emission factors ({mu}g/cigarette) of the selected toxic air contaminants among brands, expressed as coefficients of variation, were 16 to 29%. Therefore, emissions among brands were Generally similar. Differences among brands were related to the smoked lengths of the cigarettes and the masses of consumed tobacco. Mentholation and whether a cigarette was classified as light or regular did not significantly affect emissions. Aging was determined not to be a significant factor for the target compounds. There were, however, deposition losses of the less volatile compounds to chamber surfaces.

  11. Importance of the temperature field and its uncertainties in modeling ductile deformation of the southern California lithosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thatcher, W. R.; Chapman, D. S.; Williams, C. F.; Hearn, E. H.

    2015-12-01

    Temperature is arguably the most important parameter controlling ductile deformation in tectonically active regions. Laboratory measurements at lower crust and upper mantle conditions define the mechanisms controlling ductile deformation and constrain quantitative rules relating stress and strain rate. Exhumed ductily deformed rocks reveal the micromechanics of deformation, supplying ground truth that can be compared with lab results. However, even if the mechanism and ductile deformation rules are accepted at face value, strain rates are exquisitely dependent on temperature. Here we critically assess observational data relevant to constraining the southern California lithospheric temperature field. Our goal is to improve estimates of the 3D temperature field and its real uncertainties and apply them to regional deformation modeling. We use a phased approach to estimating geotherms, beginning with simple 1D steady state conductive models. We identify the most important parameters and disaggregate them, separately examining the effects of varying radiogenic heat source concentration, rock type, crust and lithosphere thickness and asthenosphere solidus. We assess geotherm uncertainties by assigning realistic error bounds on all input quantities, propagate these uncertainties by Monte Carlo sampling and determine probability density functions for the geotherm. We find that although other parameter uncertainties contribute, variability in heat sources produces the largest variation in model-predicted geotherms. Because heat production depends strongly on rock type, better characterization of crustal lithology using refined seismic imaging results now becoming available beneath southern California is likely to produce the largest improvements in thermal models. Nonetheless, substantial uncertainty will remain, arguing for adoption of one or a few standard thermal models as common starting points for regional deformation modeling in southern California and elsewhere.

  12. The United States pork niche market phenomenon.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Honeyman, M S; Pirog, R S; Huber, G H; Lammers, P J; Hermann, J R

    2006-08-01

    After the broad industrialization of the US pork industry, there has been a development of niche markets for export and domestic pork; that is, there is a pork niche market phenomenon. The US pork niche market phenomenon is characterized, and 2 of the major markets are explained in detail. With the Midwest's tradition of a diversified family-based agriculture and record low hog prices of the late 1990s, the conditions were conducive for this phenomenon to develop. Pork niche markets utilize various sales methods including Internet sales, local abattoir sales, direct marketing, farmer networks, and targeting to organized groups. In 2003, there were approximately 35 to 40 active pork niche marketing efforts in Iowa. The Berkshire breed is an example of a swine breed that has had a recent resurgence because of niche markets. Berkshire pork is known for tenderness and excellent quality. Berkshire registrations have increased 4-fold in the last 10 yr. One of the larger niche marketers of "natural pork" is Niman Ranch Pork, which has more than 400 farmer-producers and processes about 2,500 pigs weekly. Many US consumers of pork are interested in issues concerning the environment, food safety, pig welfare, and pig farm ownership and structure. These consumers may be willing to pay more for pork from farmers who are also concerned about these issues. Small- and medium-sized swine farmers are active in pork niche markets. Niche markets claim product differentiation by superior or unique product quality and social attributes. Quality attributes include certain swine breeds, and meat quality, freshness, taste or flavor, and tenderness. Social or credence attributes often are claimed and include freedom from antibiotics and growth promotants; local family farm production; natural, organic, outdoor, or bedded rearing; humane rearing; known origin; environmentally friendly production; and the absence of animal by-products in the feed. Niche pork markets and alternative swine

  13. Modeling of Reactive Transport of Nitrate in a Heterogeneous Alluvial Fan Aquifer, San Joaquin Valley, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Green, C. T.; Phillips, S. P.

    2005-12-01

    Fate of nitrate in an alluvial fan aquifer in the San Joaquin Valley, California, was investigated with combined laboratory analyses, field measurements, geostatistics, and flow and reactive transport modeling. In the summer of 2003, groundwater wells and lysimeters were installed along a 1-km transect extending upgradient from the Merced River through an unfarmed riparian zone, a corn field, and an orchard. Groundwater levels have been monitored continuously. Saturated and unsaturated pore waters were analyzed quarterly for nutrients, anions, and cations. Sediment core samples from above and below the water table were analyzed for organic matter, nutrients, inorganic chemistry, and potential denitrification using denitrification enzyme assays (DEA's) based on the acetylene block technique. Curve fitting of DEA's provided core-scale estimates of microbial populations and growth coefficients. DEA biomass was similar to values obtained with the most probable number technique. Growth coefficients were found to be relatively uniform across the site, while biomass varied by several orders of magnitude. Age dates estimated from Chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) and Sulfur Hexafluoride (SF6), together with analyses of nitrogen species and excess nitrogen gas, provided approximate aquifer-scale, zero-order denitrification rates. The field and laboratory measurements served as input for geostatistical realizations of sediment properties and simulations of reactive transport of nitrate in the saturated zone. Analyses of cores, drillers' logs, and previous interpretations of the local geology were used to generate transition probability models of hydrofacies distributions within Holocene alluvium and pre-Holocene fans, and maps of the boundaries between these stratigraphic sequences. Multiple 3-D realizations were created and ranked based on lateral and vertical bulk-flow properties. For realizations representing a range of geological conditions, 3-D flow was computed with boundary

  14. Using a GIS to Model Tsunami Evacuation Times for the Community of Fairhaven, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graehl, N.; Dengler, L.

    2008-12-01

    The community of Fairhaven (pop. 200) is located at the southern end of the Samoa Peninsula in Humboldt County, California. Fairhaven experienced minor flooding from the 1964 Alaska teletsunami and lies within the inundation zone of numerical models for tsunamis generated by the Cascadia s¬ubduction zone. The highest elevations in the community are about 8 meters which potentially exposes the community to high velocity waves and tsunami inundation. This study modeled the evacuation times to reach the nearest designated evacuation area in the adjacent community of Samoa by foot, to determine if this time frame is realistic in the event of a tsunami evacuation. We used a GIS to generate a Cost Weighted Surface that takes into account distance, physical objects such as buildings, lakes, rivers and other obstructions, and elevation. The Spatial Analyst extension in ArcGIS along with 1 meter resolution NAIP imagery was used to construct a land-use polygon shapefile for the Samoa Peninsula. Slope values were imported into the Cost Weighted Surface with 5 meter resolution DEM's of the Humboldt Bay area. Land-use and slope were reclassified to contain speed values based on the type of surface or slope a pedestrian would walk over. Land-use was reclassified based on walking speed values attained in the field while slope values were reclassified based on Laghi and Cavalletti's criteria. Land-use and slope were then combined to create the final Cost Weighted Surface. Two evacuation time maps were created: one modeled pedestrian evacuation time to Samoa's official evacuation site and the other to a proposed evacuation site located within Fairhaven. The generated evacuation time maps show that evacuation times generally increase radially as the distance from the evacuation sites increases. However, this is untrue where slope and land use characteristics have more of an influence on evacuation time than distance. Maximum pedestrian evacuation times decreased from nearly two

  15. Niche divergence builds the case for ecological speciation in skinks of the Plestiodon skiltonianus species complex

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wogan, Guinevere O.U.; Richmond, Jonathan Q.

    2015-01-01

    Adaptation to different thermal environments has the potential to cause evolutionary changes that are sufficient to drive ecological speciation. Here, we examine whether climate-based niche divergence in lizards of the Plestiodon skiltonianus species complex is consistent with the outcomes of such a process. Previous work on this group shows that a mechanical sexual barrier has evolved between species that differ mainly in body size and that the barrier may be a by-product of selection for increased body size in lineages that have invaded xeric environments; however, baseline information on niche divergence among members of the group is lacking. We quantified the climatic niche using mechanistic physiological and correlative niche models and then estimated niche differences among species using ordination techniques and tests of niche overlap and equivalency. Our results show that the thermal niches of size-divergent, reproductively isolated morphospecies are significantly differentiated and that precipitation may have been as important as temperature in causing increased shifts in body size in xeric habitats. While these findings alone do not demonstrate thermal adaptation or identify the cause of speciation, their integration with earlier genetic and behavioral studies provides a useful test of phenotype–environment associations that further support the case for ecological speciation in these lizards.

  16. 制造业产品创新过程的概念设计生态位分析模型构建与测评研究%On Building and Evaluating Analysis Model of Concept Design based on Ecological Niche Theory in Product Innovation Process of Manufacturing Industry

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    尹航; 雷家骕; 李晓宇

    2013-01-01

    Based on ecological niche theory, this article finds out sequential evaluating of product innovation process including five sub ecological niches, such as concept design, R&D management, the debugging, industrial manufacturing, and market transactions. It also describes the sequence in produce innovation process. Through analyzing influencing factors of innovation ecological niche of concept design in product innovation process, evaluating indexes are set up to measure evoluating status of innovation ecological niche of concept design. Furthermore, twenty-three innovation projects' information of innovation ecological niche of concept design are collected to carry out empirical research, evaluating status can be measured and theory model can be validated based on Entropy-Topsis method.%基于生态位的理念,本文将产品创新过程划分为概念设计、研发、调试、工业生产以及市场交易等五个子生态位,描绘了产品创新过程的演进序列;通过剖析影响概念设计生态位的多维因素,继而测度概念设计生态位的演进状态.此后,本文以23个处于概念设计生态位的制造业企业产品创新项目作为实证分析对象,应用Entropy-Topsis模型测评产品创新生态位的演进态势,对收集的样本调查数据进行分析并验证理论模型.

  17. Residual analysis methods for space--time point processes with applications to earthquake forecast models in California

    CERN Document Server

    Clements, Robert Alan; Schorlemmer, Danijel; 10.1214/11-AOAS487

    2012-01-01

    Modern, powerful techniques for the residual analysis of spatial-temporal point process models are reviewed and compared. These methods are applied to California earthquake forecast models used in the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP). Assessments of these earthquake forecasting models have previously been performed using simple, low-power means such as the L-test and N-test. We instead propose residual methods based on rescaling, thinning, superposition, weighted K-functions and deviance residuals. Rescaled residuals can be useful for assessing the overall fit of a model, but as with thinning and superposition, rescaling is generally impractical when the conditional intensity $\\lambda$ is volatile. While residual thinning and superposition may be useful for identifying spatial locations where a model fits poorly, these methods have limited power when the modeled conditional intensity assumes extremely low or high values somewhere in the observation region, and this is commonly t...

  18. Large, high-intensity fire events in Southern California shrublands: Debunking the fine-grain age patch model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keeley, J.E.; Zedler, P.H.

    2009-01-01

    We evaluate the fine-grain age patch model of fire regimes in southern California shrublands. Proponents contend that the historical condition was characterized by frequent small to moderate size, slow-moving smoldering fires, and that this regime has been disrupted by fire suppression activities that have caused unnatural fuel accumulation and anomalously large and catastrophic wildfires. A review of more than 100 19th-century newspaper reports reveals that large, high-intensity wildfires predate modern fire suppression policy, and extensive newspaper coverage plus first-hand accounts support the conclusion that the 1889 Santiago Canyon Fire was the largest fire in California history. Proponents of the fine-grain age patch model contend that even the very earliest 20th-century fires were the result of fire suppression disrupting natural fuel structure. We tested that hypothesis and found that, within the fire perimeters of two of the largest early fire events in 1919 and 1932, prior fire suppression activities were insufficient to have altered the natural fuel structure. Over the last 130 years there has been no significant change in the incidence of large fires greater than 10000 ha, consistent with the conclusion that fire suppression activities are not the cause of these fire events. Eight megafires (???50 000 ha) are recorded for the region, and half have occurred in the last five years. These burned through a mosaic of age classes, which raises doubts that accumulation of old age classes explains these events. Extreme drought is a plausible explanation for this recent rash of such events, and it is hypothesized that these are due to droughts that led to increased dead fine fuels that promoted the incidence of firebrands and spot fires. A major shortcoming of the fine-grain age patch model is that it requires age-dependent flammability of shrubland fuels, but seral stage chaparral is dominated by short-lived species that create a dense surface layer of fine

  19. CROSS DRIFT ALCOVE/NICHE UTILITIES ANALYSIS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    S. Goodin

    1999-07-08

    The purpose of this analysis is to provide the design basis and general arrangement requirements of the non-potable water, waste water, compressed air and ventilation (post excavation) utilities required in support of the Cross Drift alcoves and niches.

  20. Developmental cues and persistent neurogenic potential within an in vitro neural niche

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fairchild Corinne L

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Neurogenesis, the production of neural cell-types from neural stem cells (NSCs, occurs during development as well as within select regions of the adult brain. NSCs in the adult subependymal zone (SEZ exist in a well-categorized niche microenvironment established by surrounding cells and their molecular products. The components of this niche maintain the NSCs and their definitive properties, including the ability to self-renew and multipotency (neuronal and glial differentiation. Results We describe a model in vitro NSC niche, derived from embryonic stem cells, that produces many of the cells and products of the developing subventricular zone (SVZ and adult SEZ NSC niche. We demonstrate a possible role for apoptosis and for components of the extracellular matrix in the maintenance of the NSC population within our niche cultures. We characterize expression of genes relevant to NSC self-renewal and the process of neurogenesis and compare these findings to gene expression produced by an established neural-induction protocol employing retinoic acid. Conclusions The in vitro NSC niche shows an identity that is distinct from the neurally induced embryonic cells that were used to derive it. Molecular and cellular components found in our in vitro NSC niche include NSCs, neural progeny, and ECM components and their receptors. Establishment of the in vitro NSC niche occurs in conjunction with apoptosis. Applications of this culture system range from studies of signaling events fundamental to niche formation and maintenance as well as development of unique NSC transplant platforms to treat disease or injury.

  1. More rapid shift to a benthic niche in larger Gadus morhua juveniles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ólafsdóttir, G Á; Gunnarsson, G S; Karlsson, H

    2015-08-01

    Trophic use by Atlantic cod Gadus morhua juveniles was examined early and late in the shift from pelagic to benthic habitats. Changes in the proportion of pelagic copepods, estimates of benthic prey indicated by isotope mixing models and stable-isotope values between sample periods suggested a gradual shift towards a benthic niche. Values of the trophic proxies, however, changed most markedly in the largest juvenile group, suggesting a more rapid trophic niche shift, and in turn competitive advantage, of larger juveniles.

  2. Testing the niche apportionment hypothesis with parasite communities: is random assortment always the rule?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muñoz, G; Mouillot, D; Poulin, R

    2006-05-01

    Niche apportionment models have only been applied once to parasite communities. Only the random assortment model (RA), which indicates that species abundances are independent from each other and that interspecific competition is unimportant, provided a good fit to 3 out of 6 parasite communities investigated. The generality of this result needs to be validated, however. In this study we apply 5 niche apportionment models to the parasite communities of 14 fish species from the Great Barrier Reef. We determined which model fitted the data when using either numerical abundance or biomass as an estimate of parasite abundance, and whether the fit of niche apportionment models depends on how the parasite community is defined (e.g. ecto, endoparasites or all parasites considered together). The RA model provided a good fit for the whole community of parasites in 7 fish species when using biovolume (as a surrogate of biomass) as a measure of species abundance. The RA model also fitted observed data when ecto- and endoparasites were considered separately, using abundance or biovolume, but less frequently. Variation in fish sizes among species was not associated with the probability of a model fitting the data. Total numerical abundance and biovolume of parasites were not related across host species, suggesting that they capture different aspects of abundance. Biovolume is not only a better measurement to use with niche-orientated models, it should also be the preferred descriptor to analyse parasite community structure in other contexts. Most of the biological assumptions behind the RA model, i.e. randomness in apportioning niche space, lack of interspecific competition, independence of abundance among different species, and species with variable niches in changeable environments, are in accordance with some previous findings on parasite communities. Thus, parasite communities may generally be unsaturated with species, with empty niches, and interspecific interactions may

  3. Sustainability of Human Ecological Niche Construction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Forest Isbell

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Humans influence and depend on natural systems worldwide, creating complex societal-ecological feedbacks that make it difficult to assess the long-term sustainability of contemporary human activities. We use ecological niche theory to consider the short-term (transient and long-term (equilibrium effects of improvements in health, agriculture, or efficiency on the abundances of humans, our plant and animal resources, and our natural enemies. We also consider special cases of our model where humans shift to a completely vegetarian diet, or completely eradicate natural enemies. We find that although combinations of health, agriculture, and efficiency improvements tend to support more people and plant resources, they also result in more natural enemies and fewer animal resources. Considering each of these improvements separately reveals that they lead to different, and sometimes opposing, long-term effects. For example, health improvements can reduce pathogen abundances and make it difficult to sustain livestock production, whereas agricultural improvements tend to counterbalance these effects. Our exploratory analysis of a deliberately simple model elucidates trade-offs and feedbacks that could arise from the cascading effects of human activities.

  4. Advection and starvation cause krill (Euphausia pacifica) decreases in 2005 Northern California coastal populations: Implications from a model study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dorman, Jeffrey G.; Powell, Thomas M.; Sydeman, William J.; Bograd, Steven J.

    2011-02-01

    A decrease in krill abundance during 2005 in regions of the California Current has been hypothesized to have had immediate (seabird) and long-term (salmon) negative impacts on upper trophic level predators. We use a suite of coupled models to examine the population biology and spatial and temporal distribution of the krill species Euphausia pacifica during the winter/spring of 2001, a “normal” year, and 2005, an “anomalous” year, to determine if this hypothesis is supported mechanistically. Ocean conditions were simulated using the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS), which forced an individual-based model parameterized to simulate the population biology of E. pacifica. Poleward transport during winter 2005 advected particles north of Cape Mendocino, away from seabirds and salmon feeding in the Gulf of the Farallons region. Few of the particles that were advected north in 2005 returned to their region of release throughout the model run time (200 days). Moreover, the “condition” of those particles remaining within the domain was poor in 2005, with greater mortality from starvation and a decreased mean particle weight. Our results indicate that both physical processes (anomalous northern advection) and biological processes (greater starvation and less weight per individual) contributed to reduced krill availability to predators in the northern California region during 2005, and that the productivity and survival of seabirds and salmonids is dependent on krill during critical life history stages.

  5. Predicting the past distribution of species climatic niches

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nogues, David Bravo

    2009-01-01

    Predicting past distributions of species climatic niches, hindcasting, by using climate envelope models (CEMs) is emerging as an exciting research area. CEMs are used to examine veiled evolutionary questions about extinctions, locations of past refugia and migration pathways, or to propose...... of species with climate; (2) they only use one model class (72% of the studies) and one palaeoclimatic reconstruction (62.5%) to calibrate their models; (3) they do not check for the occurrence of non-analogous climates (97%); and (4) they do not use independent data to validate the models (72%). Ignoring...

  6. Groundwater simulation and management models for the upper Klamath Basin, Oregon and California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gannett, Marshall W.; Wagner, Brian J.; Lite, Kenneth E.

    2012-01-01

    The upper Klamath Basin encompasses about 8,000 square miles, extending from the Cascade Range east to the Basin and Range geologic province in south-central Oregon and northern California. The geography of the basin is dominated by forested volcanic uplands separated by broad interior basins. Most of the interior basins once held broad shallow lakes and extensive wetlands, but most of these areas have been drained or otherwise modified and are now cultivated. Major parts of the interior basins are managed as wildlife refuges, primarily for migratory waterfowl. The permeable volcanic bedrock of the upper Klamath Basin hosts a substantial regional groundwater system that provides much of the flow to major streams and lakes that, in turn, provide water for wildlife habitat and are the principal source of irrigation water for the basin's agricultural economy. Increased allocation of surface water for endangered species in the past decade has resulted in increased groundwater pumping and growing interest in the use of groundwater for irrigation. The potential effects of increased groundwater pumping on groundwater levels and discharge to springs and streams has caused concern among groundwater users, wildlife and Tribal interests, and State and Federal resource managers. To provide information on the potential impacts of increased groundwater development and to aid in the development of a groundwater management strategy, the U.S. Geological Survey, in collaboration with the Oregon Water Resources Department and the Bureau of Reclamation, has developed a groundwater model that can simulate the response of the hydrologic system to these new stresses. The groundwater model was developed using the U.S. Geological Survey MODFLOW finite-difference modeling code and calibrated using inverse methods to transient conditions from 1989 through 2004 with quarterly stress periods. Groundwater recharge and agricultural and municipal pumping are specified for each stress period. All

  7. Niche as a determinant of word fate in online groups

    CERN Document Server

    Altmann, Eduardo G; Motter, Adilson E

    2010-01-01

    Patterns of word use both reflect and influence a myriad of human activities and interactions. Like other entities that reproduce and evolve, words rise or decline depending upon a complex interplay between fitness and environment. Using Internet discussion communities as model systems, we show that the word niche, defined as the extent of the word's association with specific people and topics, is a strong determinant of changes in word frequency. Previous, a posteriori, studies have indicated that word frequency is a correlate of word success at historical time scales. Our longitudinal analysis reveals that the word niche is far more important than word frequency in the dynamics of the entire vocabulary at shorter time scales, as the language adapts to new concepts and social groupings. We also identify endogenous versus exogenous value as a further component in the fate of words, and demonstrate the force of this distinction in the rise of novel words. Our results indicate that short-term nonstationarity in...

  8. Mapping the zoonotic niche of Ebola virus disease in Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pigott, David M; Golding, Nick; Mylne, Adrian; Huang, Zhi; Henry, Andrew J; Weiss, Daniel J; Brady, Oliver J; Kraemer, Moritz U G; Smith, David L; Moyes, Catherine L; Bhatt, Samir; Gething, Peter W; Horby, Peter W; Bogoch, Isaac I; Brownstein, John S; Mekaru, Sumiko R; Tatem, Andrew J; Khan, Kamran; Hay, Simon I

    2014-01-01

    Ebola virus disease (EVD) is a complex zoonosis that is highly virulent in humans. The largest recorded outbreak of EVD is ongoing in West Africa, outside of its previously reported and predicted niche. We assembled location data on all recorded zoonotic transmission to humans and Ebola virus infection in bats and primates (1976-2014). Using species distribution models, these occurrence data were paired with environmental covariates to predict a zoonotic transmission niche covering 22 countries across Central and West Africa. Vegetation, elevation, temperature, evapotranspiration, and suspected reservoir bat distributions define this relationship. At-risk areas are inhabited by 22 million people; however, the rarity of human outbreaks emphasises the very low probability of transmission to humans. Increasing population sizes and international connectivity by air since the first detection of EVD in 1976 suggest that the dynamics of human-to-human secondary transmission in contemporary outbreaks will be very different to those of the past. PMID:25201877

  9. Biodiversity influences plant productivity through niche-efficiency.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liang, Jingjing; Zhou, Mo; Tobin, Patrick C; McGuire, A David; Reich, Peter B

    2015-05-01

    The loss of biodiversity is threatening ecosystem productivity and services worldwide, spurring efforts to quantify its effects on the functioning of natural ecosystems. Previous research has focused on the positive role of biodiversity on resource acquisition (i.e., niche complementarity), but a lack of study on resource utilization efficiency, a link between resource and productivity, has rendered it difficult to quantify the biodiversity-ecosystem functioning relationship. Here we demonstrate that biodiversity loss reduces plant productivity, other things held constant, through theory, empirical evidence, and simulations under gradually relaxed assumptions. We developed a theoretical model named niche-efficiency to integrate niche complementarity and a heretofore-ignored mechanism of diminishing marginal productivity in quantifying the effects of biodiversity loss on plant productivity. Based on niche-efficiency, we created a relative productivity metric and a productivity impact index (PII) to assist in biological conservation and resource management. Relative productivity provides a standardized measure of the influence of biodiversity on individual productivity, and PII is a functionally based taxonomic index to assess individual species' inherent value in maintaining current ecosystem productivity. Empirical evidence from the Alaska boreal forest suggests that every 1% reduction in overall plant diversity could render an average of 0.23% decline in individual tree productivity. Out of the 283 plant species of the region, we found that large woody plants generally have greater PII values than other species. This theoretical model would facilitate the integration of biological conservation in the international campaign against several pressing global issues involving energy use, climate change, and poverty.

  10. Modeling spatial patterns of wildfire susceptibility in southern California: Applications of MODIS remote sensing data and mesoscale numerical weather models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schneider, Philipp

    This dissertation investigates the potential of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) imagery and mesoscale numerical weather models for mapping wildfire susceptibility in general and for improving the Fire Potential Index (FPI) in southern California in particular. The dissertation explores the use of the Visible Atmospherically Resistant Index (VARI) from MODIS data for mapping relative greenness (RG) of vegetation and subsequently for computing the FPI. VARI-based RG was validated against in situ observations of live fuel moisture. The results indicate that VARI is superior to the previously used Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) for computing RG. FPI computed using VARI-based RG was found to outperform the traditional FPI when validated against historical fire detections using logistic regression. The study further investigates the potential of using Multiple Endmember Spectral Mixture Analysis (MESMA) on MODIS data for estimating live and dead fractions of vegetation. MESMA fractions were compared against in situ measurements and fractions derived from data of a high-resolution, hyperspectral sensor. The results show that live and dead fractions obtained from MODIS using MESMA are well correlated with the reference data. Further, FPI computed using MESMA-based green vegetation fraction in lieu of RG was validated against historical fire occurrence data. MESMA-based FPI performs at a comparable level to the traditional NDVI-based FPI, but can do so using a single MODIS image rather than an extensive remote sensing time series as required for the RG approach. Finally this dissertation explores the potential of integrating gridded wind speed data obtained from the MM5 mesoscale numerical weather model in the FPI. A new fire susceptibility index, the Wind-Adjusted Fire Potential Index (WAFPI), was introduced. It modifies the FPI algorithm by integrating normalized wind speed. Validating WAFPI against historical wildfire events using

  11. Which Factors Determine Spatial Segregation in the South American Opossums (Didelphis aurita and D. albiventris)? An Ecological Niche Modelling and Geometric Morphometrics Approach

    OpenAIRE

    Cáceres, Nilton Carlos; de Moraes Weber, Marcelo; Melo, Geruza Leal; Carlo MELORO; Sponchiado, Jonas; Carvalho, Renan dos Santos; Bubadué, Jamile de Moura

    2016-01-01

    Didelphis albiventris and D. aurita are Neotropical marsupials that share a unique evolutionary history and both are largely distributed throughout South America, being primarily allopatric throughout their ranges. In the Araucaria moist forest of Southern Brazil these species are sympatric and they might potentially compete having similar ecology. For this reason, they are ideal biological models to address questions about ecological character displacement and how closely related species mig...

  12. Food-web structure in low- and high-dimensional trophic niche spaces.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rossberg, Axel G; Brännström, Ake; Dieckmann, Ulf

    2010-12-01

    A question central to modelling and, ultimately, managing food webs concerns the dimensionality of trophic niche space, that is, the number of independent traits relevant for determining consumer-resource links. Food-web topologies can often be interpreted by assuming resource traits to be specified by points along a line and each consumer's diet to be given by resources contained in an interval on this line. This phenomenon, called intervality, has been known for 30 years and is widely acknowledged to indicate that trophic niche space is close to one-dimensional. We show that the degrees of intervality observed in nature can be reproduced in arbitrary-dimensional trophic niche spaces, provided that the processes of evolutionary diversification and adaptation are taken into account. Contrary to expectations, intervality is least pronounced at intermediate dimensions and steadily improves towards lower- and higher-dimensional trophic niche spaces. PMID:20462875

  13. Achieving California's 80% greenhouse gas reduction target in 2050: Technology, policy and scenario analysis using CA-TIMES energy economic systems model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The CA-TIMES optimization model of the California Energy System (v1.5) is used to understand how California can meet the 2050 targets for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (80% below 1990 levels). This model represents energy supply and demand sectors in California and simulates the technology and resource requirements needed to meet projected energy service demands. The model includes assumptions on policy constraints, as well as technology and resource costs and availability. Multiple scenarios are developed to analyze the changes and investments in low-carbon electricity generation, alternative fuels and advanced vehicles in transportation, resource utilization, and efficiency improvements across many sectors. Results show that major energy transformations are needed but that achieving the 80% reduction goal for California is possible at reasonable average carbon reduction cost ($9 to $124/tonne CO2e at 4% discount rate) relative to a baseline scenario. Availability of low-carbon resources such as nuclear power, carbon capture and sequestration (CCS), biofuels, wind and solar generation, and demand reduction all serve to lower the mitigation costs, but CCS is a key technology for achieving the lowest mitigation costs. - Highlights: • We model the California Energy System to 2050 under policy and technology scenarios. • The model optimizes technology and resource investments to meet emissions targets. • Deep emissions cuts (>74%) are achieved across all reduction scenarios. • Carbon capture enables negative emission biofuels and allows more petroleum use. • Greenhouse gas mitigation cost is small compared with total economic activity

  14. Development of State Interindustry Models for Rocky Mountain Region and California

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sathaye, Jayant A.; Kunin, Leonard

    1976-02-01

    Interindustry tables have been developed for the eight Rocky Mountain States and California. These tables are based on the 367-order 1967 national interindustry table. The national matrix was expanded to 404 sectors by disaggregating the seven minerals industries to 44 industries. The state tables can be used for energy and other resource analysis. Regional impacts of alternate development strategies can be evaluated with their use. A general computer program has been developed to facilitate construction of state interindustry tables.

  15. California Red-Legged Frog Range - CWHR [ds587

    Data.gov (United States)

    California Department of Resources — Vector datasets of CWHR range maps are one component of California Wildlife Habitat Relationships (CWHR), a comprehensive information system and predictive model...

  16. Niche-modulated and niche-modulating genes in bone marrow cells

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bone marrow (BM) cells depend on their niche for growth and survival. However, the genes modulated by niche stimuli have not been discriminated yet. For this purpose, we investigated BM aspirations from patients with various hematological malignancies. Each aspirate was fractionated, and the various samples were fixed at different time points and analyzed by microarray. Identification of niche-modulated genes relied on sustained change in expression following loss of niche regulation. Compared with the reference (‘authentic') samples, which were fixed immediately following aspiration, the BM samples fixed after longer stay out-of-niche acquired numerous changes in gene-expression profile (GEP). The overall genes modulated included a common subset of functionally diverse genes displaying prompt and sustained ‘switch' in expression irrespective of the tumor type. Interestingly, the ‘switch' in GEP was reversible and turned ‘off-and-on' again in culture conditions, resuming cell–cell–matrix contact versus respread into suspension, respectively. Moreover, the resuming of contact prolonged the survival of tumor cells out-of-niche, and the regression of the ‘contactless switch' was followed by induction of a new set of genes, this time mainly encoding extracellular proteins including angiogenic factors and extracellular matrix proteins. Our data set, being unique in authentic expression design, uncovered niche-modulated and niche-modulating genes capable of controlling homing, expansion and angiogenesis

  17. Macro-Climatic Distribution Limits Show Both Niche Expansion and Niche Specialization among C4 Panicoids.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aagesen, Lone; Biganzoli, Fernando; Bena, Julia; Godoy-Bürki, Ana C; Reinheimer, Renata; Zuloaga, Fernando O

    2016-01-01

    Grasses are ancestrally tropical understory species whose current dominance in warm open habitats is linked to the evolution of C4 photosynthesis. C4 grasses maintain high rates of photosynthesis in warm and water stressed environments, and the syndrome is considered to induce niche shifts into these habitats while adaptation to cold ones may be compromised. Global biogeographic analyses of C4 grasses have, however, concentrated on diversity patterns, while paying little attention to distributional limits. Using phylogenetic contrast analyses, we compared macro-climatic distribution limits among ~1300 grasses from the subfamily Panicoideae, which includes 4/5 of the known photosynthetic transitions in grasses. We explored whether evolution of C4 photosynthesis correlates with niche expansions, niche changes, or stasis at subfamily level and within the two tribes Paniceae and Paspaleae. We compared the climatic extremes of growing season temperatures, aridity, and mean temperatures of the coldest months. We found support for all the known biogeographic distribution patterns of C4 species, these patterns were, however, formed both by niche expansion and niche changes. The only ubiquitous response to a change in the photosynthetic pathway within Panicoideae was a niche expansion of the C4 species into regions with higher growing season temperatures, but without a withdrawal from the inherited climate niche. Other patterns varied among the tribes, as macro-climatic niche evolution in the American tribe Paspaleae differed from the pattern supported in the globally distributed tribe Paniceae and at family level.

  18. Why do niches develop in Caesarean uterine scars? Hypotheses on the aetiology of niche development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vervoort, A.J.M.W.; Uittenbogaard, L.B.; Hehenkamp, W.J.K.; Brölmann, H.A.M.; Mol, B.W.J.; Huirne, J.A.F.

    2015-01-01

    Caesarean section (CS) results in the occurrence of the phenomenon ‘niche’. A ‘niche’ describes the presence of a hypoechoic area within the myometrium of the lower uterine segment, reflecting a discontinuation of the myometrium at the site of a previous CS. Using gel or saline instillation sonohysterography, a niche is identified in the scar in more than half of the women who had had a CS, most with the uterus closed in one single layer, without closure of the peritoneum. An incompletely healed scar is a long-term complication of the CS and is associated with more gynaecological symptoms than is commonly acknowledged. Approximately 30% of women with a niche report spotting at 6–12 months after their CS. Other reported symptoms in women with a niche are dysmenorrhoea, chronic pelvic pain and dyspareunia. Given the association between a niche and gynaecological symptoms, obstetric complications and potentially with subfertility, it is important to elucidate the aetiology of niche development after CS in order to develop preventive strategies. Based on current published data and our observations during sonographic, hysteroscopic and laparoscopic evaluations of niches we postulate some hypotheses on niche development. Possible factors that could play a role in niche development include a very low incision through cervical tissue, inadequate suturing technique during closure of the uterine scar, surgical interventions that increase adhesion formation or patient-related factors that impair wound healing or increase inflammation or adhesion formation. PMID:26409016

  19. REMOTE SENSING-BASED DETECTION AND SPATIAL PATTERN ANALYSIS FOR GEO-ECOLOGICAL NICHE MODELING OF TILLANDSIA SPP. IN THE ATACAMA, CHILE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Wolf

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available In the coastal Atacama Desert in Northern Chile plant growth is constrained to so-called ‘fog oases’ dominated by monospecific stands of the genus Tillandsia. Adapted to the hyperarid environmental conditions, these plants specialize on the foliar uptake of fog as main water and nutrient source. It is this characteristic that leads to distinctive macro- and micro-scale distribution patterns, reflecting complex geo-ecological gradients, mainly affected by the spatiotemporal occurrence of coastal fog respectively the South Pacific Stratocumulus clouds reaching inlands. The current work employs remote sensing, machine learning and spatial pattern/GIS analysis techniques to acquire detailed information on the presence and state of Tillandsia spp. in the Tarapacá region as a base to better understand the bioclimatic and topographic constraints determining the distribution patterns of Tillandsia spp. Spatial and spectral predictors extracted from WorldView-3 satellite data are used to map present Tillandsia vegetation in the Tarapaca region. Regression models on Vegetation Cover Fraction (VCF are generated combining satellite-based as well as topographic variables and using aggregated high spatial resolution information on vegetation cover derived from UAV flight campaigns as a reference. The results are a first step towards mapping and modelling the topographic as well as bioclimatic factors explaining the spatial distribution patterns of Tillandsia fog oases in the Atacama, Chile.

  20. Remote Sensing-Based Detection and Spatial Pattern Analysis for Geo-Ecological Niche Modeling of Tillandsia SPP. In the Atacama, Chile

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolf, N.; Siegmund, A.; del Río, C.; Osses, P.; García, J. L.

    2016-06-01

    In the coastal Atacama Desert in Northern Chile plant growth is constrained to so-called `fog oases' dominated by monospecific stands of the genus Tillandsia. Adapted to the hyperarid environmental conditions, these plants specialize on the foliar uptake of fog as main water and nutrient source. It is this characteristic that leads to distinctive macro- and micro-scale distribution patterns, reflecting complex geo-ecological gradients, mainly affected by the spatiotemporal occurrence of coastal fog respectively the South Pacific Stratocumulus clouds reaching inlands. The current work employs remote sensing, machine learning and spatial pattern/GIS analysis techniques to acquire detailed information on the presence and state of Tillandsia spp. in the Tarapacá region as a base to better understand the bioclimatic and topographic constraints determining the distribution patterns of Tillandsia spp. Spatial and spectral predictors extracted from WorldView-3 satellite data are used to map present Tillandsia vegetation in the Tarapaca region. Regression models on Vegetation Cover Fraction (VCF) are generated combining satellite-based as well as topographic variables and using aggregated high spatial resolution information on vegetation cover derived from UAV flight campaigns as a reference. The results are a first step towards mapping and modelling the topographic as well as bioclimatic factors explaining the spatial distribution patterns of Tillandsia fog oases in the Atacama, Chile.

  1. Estimating Demand Response Load Impacts: Evaluation of BaselineLoad Models for Non-Residential Buildings in California

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Coughlin, Katie; Piette, Mary Ann; Goldman, Charles; Kiliccote,Sila

    2008-01-01

    Both Federal and California state policymakers areincreasingly interested in developing more standardized and consistentapproaches to estimate and verify the load impacts of demand responseprograms and dynamic pricing tariffs. This study describes a statisticalanalysis of the performance of different models used to calculate thebaseline electric load for commercial buildings participating in ademand-response (DR) program, with emphasis onthe importance of weathereffects. During a DR event, a variety of adjustments may be made tobuilding operation, with the goal of reducing the building peak electricload. In order to determine the actual peak load reduction, an estimateof what the load would have been on the day of the event without any DRactions is needed. This baseline load profile (BLP) is key to accuratelyassessing the load impacts from event-based DR programs and may alsoimpact payment settlements for certain types of DR programs. We testedseven baseline models on a sample of 33 buildings located in California.These models can be loosely categorized into two groups: (1) averagingmethods, which use some linear combination of hourly load values fromprevious days to predict the load on the event, and (2) explicit weathermodels, which use a formula based on local hourly temperature to predictthe load. The models were tested both with and without morningadjustments, which use data from the day of the event to adjust theestimated BLP up or down.Key findings from this study are: - The accuracyof the BLP model currently used by California utilities to estimate loadreductions in several DR programs (i.e., hourly usage in highest 3 out of10 previous days) could be improved substantially if a morning adjustmentfactor were applied for weather-sensitive commercial and institutionalbuildings. - Applying a morning adjustment factor significantly reducesthe bias and improves the accuracy of all BLP models examined in oursample of buildings. - For buildings with low load

  2. Continental Refugium in the Mongolian Plateau during Quaternary Glacial Oscillations: Phylogeography and Niche Modelling of the Endemic Desert Hamster, Phodopus roborovskii.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lv, Xue; Xia, Lin; Ge, Deyan; Wen, Zhixin; Qu, Yanhua; Lu, Liang; Yang, Qisen

    2016-01-01

    The Mongolian Plateau (MP), which is situated in the interior of Asia and possesses a typical continental climate, experienced harsh climatic conditions during the Quaternary glacial fluctuations. Although these events likely had huge impacts on the local animal populations, the current effects have hardly been explored. To investigate whether the MP supported a refugium along an oceanic-continental gradient (ROCG), and whether this refugium was glacial or interglacial, we investigated the demographic and phylogeographic history of an endemic mammal species, the desert hamster Phodopus roborovskii. We reconstructed the demographic variation, the phylogeographic diffusion, and modelled the potential habitat during historical periods. The genetic diversity in the MP was the highest among all the localities, and the MP was a suitable habitat throughout the modelled historical periods. A phylogeographic diffusion analysis emphasized the importance of the MP as the centre of origin, preservation and spread for P. roborovskii. The homogeneous landscape provided the opportunity for a wide gene flow, which resulted in low resolution of the phylogenetic relationships. Moreover, P. roborovskii was favoured by the interglacial condition, with both its demographical and geographical ranges expanded within the interglacial periods. The range variation from the Last Glacial Maximum to the current condition reflects a distinct longitudinal shift, while both ranges largely contracted from that of the Last Interglacial. Our results support that the MP served as a refugium and spread centre for P. roborovskii during the Quaternary climate fluctuations. The interglacial expansion and the longitudinal shifts highlighted the important effects of precipitations on the distribution range of species adapted to arid and semi-arid during glacial oscillations. PMID:26839955

  3. Finding missing interactions of the Arabidopsis thaliana root stem cell niche gene regulatory network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eugenio eAzpeitia

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available AbstractOver the last few decades, the Arabidopsis thaliana root stem cell niche has become a model system for the study of plant development and the stem cell niche. Currently, many of the molecular mechanisms involved in root stem cell niche maintenance and development have been described. A few years ago, we published a gene regulatory network model integrating this information. This model suggested that there were missing components or interactions. Upon updating the model, the observed stable gene configurations of the root stem cell niche could not be recovered, indicating that there are additional missing components or interactions in the model. In fact, due to the lack of experimental data, gene regulatory networks inferred from published data are usually incomplete. However, predicting the location and nature of the missing data is a not trivial task. Here, we propose a set of procedures for detecting and predicting missing interactions in Boolean networks. We used these procedures to predict putative missing interactions in the A. thaliana root stem cell niche network model. Using our approach, we identified three necessary interactions to recover the reported gene activation configurations that have been experimentally uncovered for the different cell types within the root stem cell niche: 1 a regulation of PHABULOSA to restrict its expression domain to the vascular cells, 2 a self-regulation of WOX5, possibly by an indirect mechanism through the auxin signalling pathway and 3 a positive regulation of JACKDAW by MAGPIE. The procedures proposed here greatly reduce the number of possible Boolean functions that are biologically meaningful and experimentally testable and that do not contradict previous data. We believe that these procedures can be used on any Boolean network. However, because the procedures were designed for the specific case of the root stem cell niche, formal demonstrations of the procedures should be shown in future

  4. Niche construction on Bali: the gods of the countryside.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lansing, J Stephen; Fox, Karyn M

    2011-03-27

    Human niche construction encompasses both purely biological phenomena, such as the evolution of lactose tolerance, and dual inheritance theory, which investigates the transmission of cultural information. But does niche construction help to explain phenomena in which conscious intention also plays a role? The creation of the engineered landscape of Balinese rice terraces offers a test case. Population genetic analysis and archaeological evidence are used to investigate whether this phenomenon emerged historically from trial and error by generations of farmers, or alternatively was designed by Bali's rulers. In light of strong support for the former hypothesis, two models are developed to explore the emergence of functional structure at both local and global scales. As time goes forward and selected patterns of irrigation schedules are implemented, local variation in rice harvests influences future decisions by the farmers, creating a coupled human-natural system governed by feedback from the environment. This mathematical analysis received a measure of empirical support when government agricultural policies severed the local feedback channels, resulting in the almost instantaneous collapse of rice harvests. The historical process of niche construction may also have included an evolution of religious consciousness, reflected in the beliefs and practices of the water temple cult.

  5. Implications of irradiating the subventricular zone stem cell niche

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vivian Capilla-Gonzalez

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Radiation therapy is a standard treatment for brain tumor patients. However, it comes with side effects, such as neurological deficits. While likely multi-factorial, the effect may in part be associated with the impact of radiation on the neurogenic niches. In the adult mammalian brain, the neurogenic niches are localized in the subventricular zone (SVZ of the lateral ventricles and the dentate gyrus of the hippocampus, where the neural stem cells (NSCs reside. Several reports showed that radiation produces a drastic decrease in the proliferative capacity of these regions, which is related to functional decline. In particular, radiation to the SVZ led to a reduced long-term olfactory memory and a reduced capacity to respond to brain damage in animal models, as well as compromised tumor outcomes in patients. By contrast, other studies in humans suggested that increased radiation dose to the SVZ may be associated with longer progression-free survival in patients with high-grade glioma. In this review, we summarize the cellular and functional effects of irradiating the SVZ niche. In particular, we review the pros and cons of using radiation during brain tumor treatment, discussing the complex relationship between radiation dose to the SVZ and both tumor control and toxicity.

  6. Implications of irradiating the subventricular zone stem cell niche.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Capilla-Gonzalez, Vivian; Bonsu, Janice M; Redmond, Kristin J; Garcia-Verdugo, Jose Manuel; Quiñones-Hinojosa, Alfredo

    2016-03-01

    Radiation therapy is a standard treatment for brain tumor patients. However, it comes with side effects, such as neurological deficits. While likely multi-factorial, the effect may in part be associated with the impact of radiation on the neurogenic niches. In the adult mammalian brain, the neurogenic niches are localized in the subventricular zone (SVZ) of the lateral ventricles and the dentate gyrus of the hippocampus, where the neural stem cells (NSCs) reside. Several reports showed that radiation produces a drastic decrease in the proliferative capacity of these regions, which is related to functional decline. In particular, radiation to the SVZ led to a reduced long-term olfactory memory and a reduced capacity to respond to brain damage in animal models, as well as compromised tumor outcomes in patients. By contrast, other studies in humans suggested that increased radiation dose to the SVZ may be associated with longer progression-free survival in patients with high-grade glioma. In this review, we summarize the cellular and functional effects of irradiating the SVZ niche. In particular, we review the pros and cons of using radiation during brain tumor treatment, discussing the complex relationship between radiation dose to the SVZ and both tumor control and toxicity.

  7. Fractal heterogeneity in minimal matrix models of scars modulates stiff-niche stem-cell responses via nuclear exit of a mechanorepressor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dingal, P. C. Dave P.; Bradshaw, Andrew M.; Cho, Sangkyun; Raab, Matthew; Buxboim, Amnon; Swift, Joe; Discher, Dennis E.

    2015-09-01

    Scarring is a long-lasting problem in higher animals, and reductionist approaches could aid in developing treatments. Here, we show that copolymerization of collagen I with polyacrylamide produces minimal matrix models of scars (MMMS), in which fractal-fibre bundles segregate heterogeneously to the hydrogel subsurface. Matrix stiffens locally--as in scars--while allowing separate control over adhesive-ligand density. The MMMS elicits scar-like phenotypes from mesenchymal stem cells (MSCs): cells spread and polarize quickly, increasing nucleoskeletal lamin-A yet expressing the `scar marker' smooth muscle actin (SMA) more slowly. Surprisingly, expression responses to MMMS exhibit less cell-to-cell noise than homogeneously stiff gels. Such differences from bulk-average responses arise because a strong SMA repressor, NKX2.5, slowly exits the nucleus on rigid matrices. NKX2.5 overexpression overrides rigid phenotypes, inhibiting SMA and cell spreading, whereas cytoplasm-localized NKX2.5 mutants degrade in well-spread cells. MSCs thus form a `mechanical memory' of rigidity by progressively suppressing NKX2.5, thereby elevating SMA in a scar-like state.

  8. Testing alternative conceptual models of seawater intrusion in a coastal aquifer using computer simulation, southern California, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nishikawa, T.

    1997-01-01

    Two alternative conceptual models of the physical processes controlling seawater intrusion in a coastal basin in California, USA, were tested to identify a likely principal pathway for seawater intrusion. The conceptual models were tested by using a two-dimensional, finite-element groundwater flow and transport model. This pathway was identified by the conceptual model that best replicated the historical data. The numerical model was applied in cross section to a submarine canyon that is a main avenue for seawater to enter the aquifer system underlying the study area. Both models are characterized by a heterogeneous, layered, water-bearing aquifer. However, the first model is characterized by flat-lying aquifer layers and by a high value of hydraulic conductivity in the basal aquifer layer, which is thought to be a principal conduit for seawater intrusion. The second model is characterized by offshore folding, which was modeled as a very nearshore outcrop, thereby providing a shorter path for seawater to intrude. General conclusions are that: 1) the aquifer system is best modeled as a flat, heterogeneous, layered system; 2) relatively thin basal layers with relatively high values of hydraulic conductivity are the principal pathways for seawater intrusion; and 3) continuous clay layers of low hydraulic conductivity play an important role in controlling the movement of seawater.

  9. California Air Basins

    Data.gov (United States)

    California Department of Resources — Air ResourcesCalifornia Air Resources BoardThe following datasets are from the California Air Resources Board: * arb_california_airbasins - California Air BasinsThe...

  10. Stable isotope evidence for trophic niche partitioning in a South African savanna rodent community

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Jacqueline CODRON; Kevin J DUFFY; Nico L AVENANT; Matt SPONHEIMER; Jennifer LEICHLITER; Oliver PAINE; Paul SANDBERG; Daryl CODRON

    2015-01-01

    Species’ partitioning of resources remains one of the most integral components for understanding community assem-bly. Analysis of stable carbon and nitrogen isotopes in animal tissues has the potential to help resolve patterns of partitioning be-cause these proxies represent the individual’s diet and trophic niche, respectively. Using free-ranging rodents in a southern Afri-can savanna as a model community, we find that syntopic species within habitats occupy distinct isotope niches. Moreover, spe-cies with strongly overlapping isotope niches did not overlap in their spatial distribution patterns, suggesting an underlying effect of competitive exclusion. Niche conservatism appears to characterize the behaviour of most species in our sample – with little or no observed changes across habitats – with the exception of one species,Mastomys coucha. This species displayed a generalist distribution, being found in similar abundances across a variety of habitats. This spatial pattern was coupled with a generalist isotope niche that shifted across habitats, likely in response to changes in species composition over the same spatial gradient. The case forM. coucha supports contentions that past competition effects played a significant evolutionary role in shaping community structures of today, including the absence of strong interspecific niche overlaps within particular habitats. Our study highlights the value of stable isotope approaches to help resolve key questions in community ecology, and moreover introduces novel ana-lytical approaches to quantifying isotope niche breadths and niche overlaps that are easily comparable with traditional metrices [Current Zoology 61 (3): 397–441, 2015].

  11. Niche conservatism of Eulophia alta, a trans-Atlantic orchid species

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marta Kolanowska

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available The genus Eulophia embraces over 230 species distributed through the tropical and subtropical Africa, Asia, Australia and the Americas. In Neotropics it is represented by a sole species – E. alta. The aim of the presented study was to evaluate the difference between ecological niches occupied by American and African populations of this species based on the ecological niche modeling. The similarity between the glacial and present niches occupied by E. alta was calculated and the factors limiting the species occurrence were identified. Areas of seasonal tropical forest, tropical savanna and woodland served as refugia for the studied species during last glacial maximum and they were more widespread in Neotropics than in Africa. No significant niche shift after last glacial maximum was observed. The distribution of E. alta in its whole range is restricted mainly by temperature seasonality. The differences in the niches occupied by African and Neotropical populations of E. alta suggest preglacial disjunction of the species range and independent adaptation of both groups. Despite the significant range disjunction of E. alta the species is characterized by relatively high degree of niche conservatism.

  12. Social niche specialization under constraints: personality, social interactions and environmental heterogeneity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montiglio, Pierre-Olivier; Ferrari, Caterina; Réale, Denis

    2013-05-19

    Several personality traits are mainly expressed in a social context, and others, which are not restricted to a social context, can be affected by the social interactions with conspecifics. In this paper, we focus on the recently proposed hypothesis that social niche specialization (i.e. individuals in a population occupy different social roles) can explain the maintenance of individual differences in personality. We first present ecological and social niche specialization hypotheses. In particular, we show how niche specialization can be quantified and highlight the link between personality differences and social niche specialization. We then review some ecological factors (e.g. competition and environmental heterogeneity) and the social mechanisms (e.g. frequency-dependent, state-dependent and social awareness) that may be associated with the evolution of social niche specialization and personality differences. Finally, we present a conceptual model and methods to quantify the contribution of ecological factors and social mechanisms to the dynamics between personality and social roles. In doing so, we suggest a series of research objectives to help empirical advances in this research area. Throughout this paper, we highlight empirical studies of social niche specialization in mammals, where available.

  13. Phylogeny and niche conservatism in North and Central American triatomine bugs (Hemiptera: Reduviidae: Triatominae, vectors of Chagas' disease.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos N Ibarra-Cerdeña

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available The niche conservatism hypothesis states that related species diverge in niche characteristics at lower rates than expected, given their lineage divergence. Here we analyze whether niche conservatism is a common pattern among vector species (Hemiptera: Reduviidae: Triatominae of Trypanosoma cruzi that inhabit North and Central America, a highly heterogeneous landmass in terms of environmental gradients. Mitochondrial and nuclear loci were used in a multi-locus phylogenetic framework to reconstruct phylogenetic relationships among species and estimate time of divergence of selected clades to draw biogeographic inferences. Then, we estimated similarity between the ecological niche of sister species and tested the niche conservatism hypothesis using our best estimate of phylogeny. Triatoma is not monophyletic. A primary clade with all North and Central American (NCA triatomine species from the genera Triatoma, Dipetalogaster, and Panstrongylus, was consistently recovered. Nearctic species within the NCA clade (T. p. protracta, T. r. rubida diverged during the Pliocene, whereas the Neotropical species (T. phyllosoma, T. longipennis, T. dimidiata complex are estimated to have diverged more recently, during the Pleistocene. The hypothesis of niche conservatism could not be rejected for any of six sister species pairs. Niche similarity between sister species best fits a retention model. While this framework is used here to infer niche evolution, it has a direct impact on spatial vector dynamics driven by human population movements, expansion of transportation networks and climate change scenarios.

  14. Classification and comparison of niche services for developing strategy of medical tourism in Asian countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Hung-chi; Kuo, Hsin-chih; Chung, Kuo-Piao; Chang, Sophia; Su, Syi; Yang, Ming-chin

    2010-01-01

    Medical tourism is a new trend in medical service. It is booming not only in Asian countries but also in European and South American countries. Worldwide competition of medical service is expected in the future, and niche service will be a "trademark" for the promotion of global medicine. Niche service also functions for market segmentation. Niche services are usually surgical procedures. A study was carried out to compare different strategies for developing medical tourism in Asian countries. The role of a niche service is evaluated in the initiation and further development of medical tourism for individual countries. From this study, a general classification was proposed in terms of treatment procedures. It can be used as a useful guideline for additional studies in medical tourism. Niche service plays the following roles in the development of medical tourism: (1) It attracts attention in the mass media and helps in subsequent promotion of business, (2) it exerts pressure on the hospital, which must improve the quality of health care provided in treating foreign patients, especially the niche services, and (3) it is a tool for setting up the business model. E-Da Hospital is an example for developing medical tourism in Taiwan. A side effect is that niche service brings additional foreign patients, which will contribute to the benefit of the hospital, but this leaves less room for treating domestic patients. A niche service is a means of introduction for entry into the market of medical tourism. How to create a successful story is important for the development of a niche service. When a good reputation has been established, the information provided on the Internet can last for a long time and can spread internationally to form a distinguished mark for further development. Niche services can be classified into 3 categories: (1) Low-risk procedures with large price differences and long stay after retirement; (2) high-risk procedures with less of a price difference

  15. Evolution is a cooperative process: the biodiversity-related niches differentiation theory (BNDT) can explain why.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gatti, Roberto Cazzolla

    2011-01-01

    A. McFayden and G.E. Hutchinson defined a niche as a multidimensional space or hypervolume within the environment that allows an individual or a species to survive, we consider niches as a fundamental ecological variable that regulate species' composition and relation in ecosystems. Successively the niche concept has been associated to the genetic term "phenotype" by MacArthurstressing the importance on what a species or a genome can show outside, either in the environmental functions or in body characteristics. Several indexes have been developed to evaluate the grade of overlapping and similarities of species' niches, even utilizing the theory of information. However, which are the factors that determine the number of species that can coexist in a determinate environment and why a generalist species do not compete until the exclusion of the remaining species to maximize its fitness, is still quite unknown. Moreover, there are few studies and theories that clearly explain why the number of niches is so variable through ecosystems and how can several species live in the same basal niche, intended in a comprehensive sense as the range of basic conditions (temperature, humidity, food-guild, etc.). Here I show that the number of niches in an ecosystem depends on the number of species present in a particular moment and that the species themselves allow the enhancement of niches in terms of space and number. I found that using a three-dimensional model as hypervolume and testing the theory on a Mediterranean, temperate and tropical forest ecosystem it is possible to demonstrate that each species plays a fundamental role in facilitating the colonization by other species by simply modifying the environment and exponentially increasing the available niches' space and number. I resumed these hypothesis, after some preliminary empiric tests, in the Biodiversity-related Niches Differentiation Theory (BNDT), stressing with these definition that the process of niches

  16. Classification and comparison of niche services for developing strategy of medical tourism in Asian countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Hung-chi; Kuo, Hsin-chih; Chung, Kuo-Piao; Chang, Sophia; Su, Syi; Yang, Ming-chin

    2010-01-01

    Medical tourism is a new trend in medical service. It is booming not only in Asian countries but also in European and South American countries. Worldwide competition of medical service is expected in the future, and niche service will be a "trademark" for the promotion of global medicine. Niche service also functions for market segmentation. Niche services are usually surgical procedures. A study was carried out to compare different strategies for developing medical tourism in Asian countries. The role of a niche service is evaluated in the initiation and further development of medical tourism for individual countries. From this study, a general classification was proposed in terms of treatment procedures. It can be used as a useful guideline for additional studies in medical tourism. Niche service plays the following roles in the development of medical tourism: (1) It attracts attention in the mass media and helps in subsequent promotion of business, (2) it exerts pressure on the hospital, which must improve the quality of health care provided in treating foreign patients, especially the niche services, and (3) it is a tool for setting up the business model. E-Da Hospital is an example for developing medical tourism in Taiwan. A side effect is that niche service brings additional foreign patients, which will contribute to the benefit of the hospital, but this leaves less room for treating domestic patients. A niche service is a means of introduction for entry into the market of medical tourism. How to create a successful story is important for the development of a niche service. When a good reputation has been established, the information provided on the Internet can last for a long time and can spread internationally to form a distinguished mark for further development. Niche services can be classified into 3 categories: (1) Low-risk procedures with large price differences and long stay after retirement; (2) high-risk procedures with less of a price difference

  17. Are Geodetically and Geologically Constrained Vertical Deformation Models Compatible With the 100-Year Coastal Tide Gauge Record in California?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith-Konter, B. R.; Sandwell, D. T.

    2006-12-01

    Sea level change has been continuously recorded along the California coastline at several tide gauge stations for the past 50-100 years. These stations provide a temporal record of sea level change, generally attributed to post-glacial rebound and ocean climate phenomena. However, geological processes, including displacements from large earthquakes, have also been shown to produce sea level variations. Furthermore, the vertical tectonic response to interseismic strain accumulation in regions of major fault bends has been shown to produce uplift and subsidence rates consistent with sea level trends. To investigate the long-term extent and implication of tectonic deformation on sea level change, we compare time series data from California tide gauge stations to model estimates of vertical displacements produced by earthquake cycle deformation. Using a 3-D semi-analytic viscoelastic model, we combine geologic slip rates, geodetic velocities, and historical seismic data to simulate both horizontal and vertical deformation of the San Andreas Fault System. Using this model, we generate a time-series of vertical displacements spanning the 100-year sea level record and compare this to tide gauge data provided by the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL). Comparison between sea level data and a variety of geologically and geodetically constrained models confirms that the two are highly compatible. Vertical displacements are largely controlled by interseismic strain accumulation, however displacements from major earthquakes are also required to explain varying trends in the sea level data. Models based on elastic plate thicknesses of 30-50km and viscosities of 7x10^1^8-2x10^1^9 Pa-s produce vertical displacements at tide-gauge locations that explain long-term trends in the sea level record to a high degree of accuracy at nearly all stations. However, unmodeled phenomena are also present in the sea level data and require further inspection.

  18. A simulation-optimization model for water-resources management, Santa Barbara, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nishikawa, Tracy

    1998-01-01

    In times of drought, the local water supplies of the city of Santa Barbara, California, are insufficient to satisfy water demand. In response, the city has built a seawater desalination plant and gained access to imported water in 1997. Of primary concern to the city is delivering water from the various sources at a minimum cost while satisfying water demand and controlling seawater intrusion that might result from the overpumping of ground water. A simulation-optimization model has been developed for the optimal management of Santa Barbara?s water resources. The objective is to minimize the cost of water supply while satisfying various physical and institutional constraints such as meeting water demand, maintaining minimum hydraulic heads at selected sites, and not exceeding water-delivery or pumping capacities. The model is formulated as a linear programming problem with monthly management periods and a total planning horizon of 5 years. The decision variables are water deliveries from surface water (Gibraltar Reservoir, Cachuma Reservoir, Cachuma Reservoir cumulative annual carryover, Mission Tunnel, State Water Project, and desalinated seawater) and ground water (13 production wells). The state variables are hydraulic heads. Basic assumptions for all simulations are that (1) the cost of water varies with source but is fixed over time, and (2) only existing or planned city wells are considered; that is, the construction of new wells is not allowed. The drought of 1947?51 is Santa Barbara?s worst drought on record, and simulated surface-water supplies for this period were used as a basis for testing optimal management of current water resources under drought conditions. Assumptions that were made for this base case include a head constraint equal to sea level at the coastal nodes; Cachuma Reservoir carryover of 3,000 acre-feet per year, with a maximum carryover of 8,277 acre-feet; a maximum annual demand of 15,000 acre-feet; and average monthly capacities for the

  19. 制造业企业产品创新过程的研发生态位分析模型构建与测评研究%Analysis Model and Empirical Research on Product Innovation Process of Manufacturing Indusrty Enterprises Based on Ecological Niche Theory

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    尹航; 李柏洲; 郭韬; 雷家骕

    2013-01-01

    Based on ecological niche theory, this article found out sequential evoluating of product innovation process including concept design, R&D management, the debugging, industrial manufacturing and market ecological niche. Through analyzing influencing factors of R&D innovation ecological niche of product innovation process, evaluating indexes were set up to measure evoluating status of R&D innovation ecological niche. Furthermore, twenty-one innovation projects information were collected to carry out empirical research , evoluating status could be measured and theory model could be validated based on Entropy-Topsis method.%本文基于生态位的理念,将产品创新过程划分为概念设计生态位、研发生态位、调试生态位、工业生产生态位以及市场交易生态位,以此形成产品创新过程中的演进序列;通过分析产品创新过程中研发生态位的影响因素,继而测度研发生态位的演进状态.然后以21个处于研发生态位的制造业企业产品创新项目作为实证分析对象,应用Entropy-Topsis模型测评产品创新生态位的演进态势,对收集的样本调查数据进行分析并验证理论模型.

  20. Impacts of Future Climate Change on California Perennial Crop Yields: Model Projections with Climate and Crop Uncertainties

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lobell, D; Field, C; Cahill, K; Bonfils, C

    2006-01-10

    Most research on the agricultural impacts of climate change has focused on the major annual crops, yet perennial cropping systems are less adaptable and thus potentially more susceptible to damage. Improved assessments of yield responses to future climate are needed to prioritize adaptation strategies in the many regions where perennial crops are economically and culturally important. These impact assessments, in turn, must rely on climate and crop models that contain often poorly defined uncertainties. We evaluated the impact of climate change on six major perennial crops in California: wine grapes, almonds, table grapes, oranges, walnuts, and avocados. Outputs from multiple climate models were used to evaluate climate uncertainty, while multiple statistical crop models, derived by resampling historical databases, were used to address crop response uncertainties. We find that, despite these uncertainties, climate change in California is very likely to put downward pressure on yields of almonds, walnuts, avocados, and table grapes by 2050. Without CO{sub 2} fertilization or adaptation measures, projected losses range from 0 to >40% depending on the crop and the trajectory of climate change. Climate change uncertainty generally had a larger impact on projections than crop model uncertainty, although the latter was substantial for several crops. Opportunities for expansion into cooler regions are identified, but this adaptation would require substantial investments and may be limited by non-climatic constraints. Given the long time scales for growth and production of orchards and vineyards ({approx}30 years), climate change should be an important factor in selecting perennial varieties and deciding whether and where perennials should be planted.

  1. Ecology and the ratchet of events: Climate variability, niche dimensions, and species distributions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jackson, S.T.; Betancourt, J.L.; Booth, R.K.; Gray, S.T.

    2009-01-01

    Climate change in the coming centuries will be characterized by interannual, decadal, and multidecadal fluctuations superimposed on anthropogenic trends. Predicting ecological and biogeographic responses to these changes constitutes an immense challenge for ecologists. Perspectives from climatic and ecological history indicate that responses will be laden with contingencies, resulting from episodic climatic events interacting with demographic and colonization events. This effect is compounded by the dependency of environmental sensitivity upon life-stage for many species. Climate variables often used in empirical niche models may become decoupled from the proximal variables that directly influence individuals and populations. Greater predictive capacity, and morefundamental ecological and biogeographic understanding, will come from integration of correlational niche modeling with mechanistic niche modeling, dynamic ecological modeling, targeted experiments, and systematic observations of past and present patterns and dynamics.

  2. Construction, calibration, and validation of the RBM10 water temperature model for the Trinity River, northern California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Edward C.; Perry, Russell W.; Risley, John C.; Som, Nicholas A.; Hetrick, Nicholas J.

    2016-03-31

    We constructed a one-dimensional daily averaged water-temperature model to simulate Trinity River temperatures for 1980–2013. The purpose of this model is to assess effects of water-management actions on water temperature and to provide water temperature inputs for a salmon population dynamics model. Simulated meteorological data, observed streamflow data, and observed water temperatures were used as model inputs to simulate a continuous 34-year time series of historical daily mean water temperature at eight locations along 112.2 river miles from Lewiston Dam near Weaverville, California, downstream to the Klamath River confluence. To demonstrate the utility of the model to inform management actions, we simulated three management alternatives to assess the effects of bypass flow augmentation in a drought year, 1994, and compared those results to the simulated historical baseline, referred to as the “No Action” alternative scenario. Augmentation flows from the Lewiston Dam bypass consist of temperature-controlled releases capable of cooling downstream water temperatures in hot times of the year, which can reduce the probability of disease outbreaks in fish populations. Outputs from the Trinity River water-temperature model were then used as inputs to an existing water-temperature model of the Klamath River to evaluate the effect of augmentation flow releases on water temperatures in the lower Klamath River. 

  3. Ecological niche models and patterns of richness and endemism of the southern Andean genus Eurymetopum (Coleoptera, Cleridae Modelos de nicho ecológico y patrones de riqueza y endemismo del género andino austral Eurymetopum (Coleoptera, Cleridae

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tania Escalante

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Eurymetopum is an Andean clerid genus with 22 species. We modeled the ecological niches of 19 species with Maxent and used them as potential distributional maps to identify patterns of richness and endemicity. All modeled species maps were overlapped in a single map in order to determine richness. We performed an optimality analysis with NDM/VNDM in a grid of 1º latitude-longitude in order to identify endemism. We found a highly rich area, located between 32º and 41º south latitude, where the richest pixels have 16 species. One area of endemism was identified, located in the Maule and Valdivian Forest biogeographic provinces, which extends also to the Santiago province of the Central Chilean subregion, and contains four endemic species (E. parallelum, E. prasinum, E. proteus, and E. viride, as well as 16 non-endemic species. The sympatry of these phylogenetically unrelated species might indicate ancient vicariance processes, followed by episodes of dispersal. Based on our results, we suggest a close relationship between these provinces, with the Maule representing a complex area.Eurymetopum es un género de cléridos andinos con 22 especies. Modelamos los nichos ecológicos de 19 especies con Maxent y los utilizamos como mapas de distribución potencial para identificar patrones de riqueza y endemismo. Todos los mapas de las especies se superpusieron en un mapa único para determinar la riqueza. Realizamos un análisis de optimalidad con NDM/VNDM en una cuadrícula de 1º de latitud-longitud para identificar el endemismo. Hallamos un área de mayor riqueza, localizada entre los 32º y 41º de latitud sur, donde los pixeles más ricos poseen 16 especies. Se identificó un área de endemismo en las provincias biogeográficas del Maule y el Bosque Valdiviano, la cual se extiende también a la provincia de Santiago de la subregión Chilena Central, y que contiene cuatro especies endémicas (E. parallelum, E. prasinum, E. proteus y E. viride, as

  4. Forests, Water, and the Atmosphere in Northern California: Insights from Sap-Flow Data Analysis and Numerical Atmospheric Model Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Link, Percy Anne

    Evapotranspiration cools the land surface by consuming a large fraction of the net radiative energy at the surface. In forested regions, trees actively control the rate of transpiration by modulating stomatal conductance in response to environmental conditions, and species with different stomatal dynamics can affect the atmosphere in distinct ways. Using principal component analysis (PCA) and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) parameter estimation with direct, tree-level measurements of water use, we show that Douglas-firs ( Pseudotsuga menziesii), a common evergreen needleleaf tree species in the Northern California Coast Range, decrease their transpiration sharply in the summer dry season in response to a dry root zone; and in contrast, broadleaf evergreen tree species, especially Pacific madrones (Arbutus menziesii), transpire maximally in the summer dry season because their transpiration is much less sensitive to a dry root zone and increases continually in response to increasing atmospheric evaporative demand. We scale up these tree-level observations to construct a bottom-up estimate of regional transpiration, and we use these regional estimates along with atmospheric models, one simple and one comprehensive, to quantify the potential impact of species transpiration differences on regional summertime climate. The atmospheric models suggest that these species differences in transpiration could affect the well-mixed atmospheric boundary layer temperature and humidity by 1-1.5 degrees C and 1 g/kg, respectively, and near-surface temperature and humidity by 1.5-2.5 degrees C and 2-3 g/kg, respectively. We further investigate the sensitivity of California climate to evapotranspiration by estimating the sensitivity of wind energy forecasts at a California wind farm to regional-scale perturbations in soil moisture using a regional atmospheric model. These tests show that forecasts at this particular farm are most sensitive to soil moisture in the Central Valley, and

  5. Application of a new hydraulic conductivity model to simulate rapid groundwater fluctuations in the Eel River watershed in Northern California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vrettas, M. D.; Fung, I. Y.

    2015-12-01

    High-frequency multi-year observations of the water table at several wells in the Angelo Coast Range Reserve in the Eel River Watershed in northern California show rapid fluctuations, where the water table, some 10-15 meters below the surface, rises by as much as 1 meter in a day or two after the first storms of the rain season. The observations highlight preferential flow through weathered bedrock, which can store as much as 30% of the moisture in the column ("rock moisture"). This rapid transfer of moisture and storage at depth could have a significant impact on ecosystem dynamics and the water and energy budgets of the atmosphere on various time scales. Despite its high importance, preferential flow through weather bedrock is not routinely captured in most climate models. This work presents a new hydraulic conductivity parameterization that captures the preferential flow, with straightforward implementation into current global climate models. The hydraulic conductivity is represented as a product of the effective saturation (normalized water content) and a background hydraulic conductivity Kbkg, drawn from a depth dependent lognormal distribution. A unique feature of the parameterization is that the variance of hydraulic conductivity is large when there is little rock moisture, and decreases with increasing saturation, mimicking flow through fractures. The new method is applied to seven wells locations on a steep (35 degrees) hill-slope in the Eel River watershed in Northern California, for the duration of six years and estimates of the model parameters are provided by assimilating, into Richards' equation, measurements of precipitation [mm] and water table depths [m] at 30-minute time intervals. The simulation results show that the new approach yields a good agreement of the rapid rise of the observed water table at the tested well locations. Furthermore, the water stored in the weathered bedrock is estimated to be in the range between 32% and 41%, which could

  6. A 3D Seismic Velocity Model Offshore Southern California from Ambient Noise Tomography of the ALBACORE OBS Array

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kohler, M. D.; Bowden, D. C.; Tsai, V. C.; Weeraratne, D. S.

    2015-12-01

    The Pacific-North America plate boundary in Southern California extends far west of the coastline, and a 12-month ocean bottom seismometer (OBS) array spanned the western side of the plate boundary to image lithospheric seismic velocities. Velocities are modeled through stacked cross correlations of ambient noise data. Twelve months of continuous data were used from 22 OBS stations and ~30 coastal and island Southern California Seismic Network stations. Particular attention has been paid to improving signal-to-noise ratios in the noise correlations with OBS stations by removing the effects of instrument tilt and infragravity waves. Different applications of preprocessing techniques allow us to distinguish the fundamental and first higher order Rayleigh modes, especially in deep water OBS pairs where the water layer dominates crustal sensitivity of the fundamental mode. Standard time domain and frequency domain methods are used to examine surface wave dispersion curves for group and phase velocities between 5 and 50 second periods, and these are inverted for 3D velocity structure. The results define the transition in three dimensions from continental lithospheric structure in the near-shore region to oceanic structure west of the continental borderland. While the most prominent features of the model relate to thinning of the crust west of the Patton Escarpment, other notable anomalies are present north-to-south throughout the continental borderland and along the coast from the Los Angeles Basin to the Peninsular Ranges. The velocity model will help describe the region's tectonic history, as well as provide new constraints for determination of earthquake relocations and rupture styles.

  7. Economic analysis of electronic waste recycling: modeling the cost and revenue of a materials recovery facility in California.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kang, Hai-Yong; Schoenung, Julie M

    2006-03-01

    The objectives of this study are to identify the various techniques used for treating electronic waste (e-waste) at material recovery facilities (MRFs) in the state of California and to investigate the costs and revenue drivers for these techniques. The economics of a representative e-waste MRF are evaluated by using technical cost modeling (TCM). MRFs are a critical element in the infrastructure being developed within the e-waste recycling industry. At an MRF, collected e-waste can become marketable output products including resalable systems/components and recyclable materials such as plastics, metals, and glass. TCM has two main constituents, inputs and outputs. Inputs are process-related and economic variables, which are directly specified in each model. Inputs can be divided into two parts: inputs for cost estimation and for revenue estimation. Outputs are the results of modeling and consist of costs and revenues, distributed by unit operation, cost element, and revenue source. The results of the present analysis indicate that the largest cost driver for the operation of the defined California e-waste MRF is the materials cost (37% of total cost), which includes the cost to outsource the recycling of the cathode ray tubes (CRTs) (dollar 0.33/kg); the second largest cost driver is labor cost (28% of total cost without accounting for overhead). The other cost drivers are transportation, building, and equipment costs. The most costly unit operation is cathode ray tube glass recycling, and the next are sorting, collecting, and dismantling. The largest revenue source is the fee charged to the customer; metal recovery is the second largest revenue source.

  8. Bone Marrow Vascular Niche: Home for Hematopoietic Stem Cells

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ningning He

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Though discovered later than osteoblastic niche, vascular niche has been regarded as an alternative indispensable niche operating regulation on hematopoietic stem cells (HSCs. As significant progresses gained on this type niche, it is gradually clear that the main work of vascular niche is undertaking to support hematopoiesis. However, compared to what have been defined in the mechanisms through which the osteoblastic niche regulates hematopoiesis, we know less in vascular niche. In this review, based on research data hitherto we will focus on component foundation and various functions of vascular niche that guarantee the normal hematopoiesis process within bone marrow microenvironments. And the possible pathways raised by various research results through which this environment undergoes its function will be discussed as well.

  9. Effect of species rarity on the accuracy of species distribution models for reptiles and amphibians in southern California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Franklin, J.; Wejnert, K.E.; Hathaway, S.A.; Rochester, C.J.; Fisher, R.N.

    2009-01-01

    Aim: Several studies have found that more accurate predictive models of species' occurrences can be developed for rarer species; however, one recent study found the relationship between range size and model performance to be an artefact of sample prevalence, that is, the proportion of presence versus absence observations in the data used to train the model. We examined the effect of model type, species rarity class, species' survey frequency, detectability and manipulated sample prevalence on the accuracy of distribution models developed for 30 reptile and amphibian species. Location: Coastal southern California, USA. Methods: Classification trees, generalized additive models and generalized linear models were developed using species presence and absence data from 420 locations. Model performance was measured using sensitivity, specificity and the area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) plot based on twofold cross-validation, or on bootstrapping. Predictors included climate, terrain, soil and vegetation variables. Species were assigned to rarity classes by experts. The data were sampled to generate subsets with varying ratios of presences and absences to test for the effect of sample prevalence. Join count statistics were used to characterize spatial dependence in the prediction errors. Results: Species in classes with higher rarity were more accurately predicted than common species, and this effect was independent of sample prevalence. Although positive spatial autocorrelation remained in the prediction errors, it was weaker than was observed in the species occurrence data. The differences in accuracy among model types were slight. Main conclusions: Using a variety of modelling methods, more accurate species distribution models were developed for rarer than for more common species. This was presumably because it is difficult to discriminate suitable from unsuitable habitat for habitat generalists, and not as an artefact of the

  10. Development of a laboratory niche Web site.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dimenstein, Izak B; Dimenstein, Simon I

    2013-10-01

    This technical note presents the development of a methodological laboratory niche Web site. The "Grossing Technology in Surgical Pathology" (www.grossing-technology.com) Web site is used as an example. Although common steps in creation of most Web sites are followed, there are particular requirements for structuring the template's menu on methodological laboratory Web sites. The "nested doll principle," in which one object is placed inside another, most adequately describes the methodological approach to laboratory Web site design. Fragmentation in presenting the Web site's material highlights the discrete parts of the laboratory procedure. An optimally minimal triad of components can be recommended for the creation of a laboratory niche Web site: a main set of media, a blog, and an ancillary component (host, contact, and links). The inclusion of a blog makes the Web site a dynamic forum for professional communication. By forming links and portals, cloud computing opens opportunities for connecting a niche Web site with other Web sites and professional organizations. As an additional source of information exchange, methodological laboratory niche Web sites are destined to parallel both traditional and new forms, such as books, journals, seminars, webinars, and internal educational materials. PMID:23769601

  11. ECRB ALCOVE AND NICHE GROUND SUPPORT ANALYSIS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    J.W. Keifer

    1999-05-09

    The purpose of the analysis is to provide design bases for Enhanced Characterization of the Repository Block (ECRB) alcove and niche ground support drawings. The objective is to evaluate the ESF Alcove Ground Support Analysis (Ref 5.1) to determine if the calculations technically bound the ECRB alcoves and to address specific differences in the conditions and constraints.

  12. An emerging niche market opportunity. Part I.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pulaski, M J

    1997-01-01

    Society is split between a desire for access to quality health care and a reluctance, by some, to pay for it. Looking at this cost/access dichotomy historically enables one to recognize an emerging niche market--discriminating, affluent consumers willing to pay for better health care. PMID:10169123

  13. Modeling and validation of a 3D velocity structure for the Santa Clara Valley, California, for seismic-wave simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hartzell, S.; Harmsen, S.; Williams, R.A.; Carver, D.; Frankel, A.; Choy, G.; Liu, P.-C.; Jachens, R.C.; Brocher, T.M.; Wentworth, C.M.

    2006-01-01

    A 3D seismic velocity and attenuation model is developed for Santa Clara Valley, California, and its surrounding uplands to predict ground motions from scenario earthquakes. The model is developed using a variety of geologic and geophysical data. Our starting point is a 3D geologic model developed primarily from geologic mapping and gravity and magnetic surveys. An initial velocity model is constructed by using seismic velocities from boreholes, reflection/refraction lines, and spatial autocorrelation microtremor surveys. This model is further refined and the seismic attenuation is estimated through waveform modeling of weak motions from small local events and strong-ground motion from the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake. Waveforms are calculated to an upper frequency of 1 Hz using a parallelized finite-difference code that utilizes two regions with a factor of 3 difference in grid spacing to reduce memory requirements. Cenozoic basins trap and strongly amplify ground motions. This effect is particularly strong in the Evergreen Basin on the northeastern side of the Santa Clara Valley, where the steeply dipping Silver Creek fault forms the southwestern boundary of the basin. In comparison, the Cupertino Basin on the southwestern side of the valley has a more moderate response, which is attributed to a greater age and velocity of the Cenozoic fill. Surface waves play a major role in the ground motion of sedimentary basins, and they are seen to strongly develop along the western margins of the Santa Clara Valley for our simulation of the Loma Prieta earthquake.

  14. RESEARCH ON SUITABILITY EVALUATION OF GARDEN LAND IN YILING DISTRICT BASED ON GIS AND NICHE-FITNESS MODEL%基于GIS和生态位适宜度模型的园地适宜性评价——以湖北宜昌市夷陵区为例

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    聂艳; 喻婧; 崔灿

    2012-01-01

    生态位适宜度是对经典生态位理论和方法的深化与发展,在合理优化和发挥作物、环境最大共生效应,及农业结构调整和布局中具有重要的理论和实际意义。以宜昌市夷陵区园地为研究对象,将生态位适宜度模型引入到适宜性评价研究中,构建了5个因素12个因子的指标体系并提出了语言型、阈值型和空间型指标的量化方法,采用加权求和与限制因子模型对各评价单元柑橘的生态位适宜度值及限制因子进行了定量分析。结果表明:研究区生态位适宜度值整体较高,最大值达0.893,生境条件基本能满足柑橘的生长发育需求;园地适宜性评价结果以2级为主,所占面积达41.34%,1级地也达到21.58%;限制该地区园地生产潜力的生态因子主要为:土壤质地、冷月平均气温和道路通达度。同时,丰富了土宜评价的理论和方法体系,能直接指导农业生产实践、促进园地的合理开发利用与管理。%The Niche-fitness theory is a further development of the classical niche theory and an extension of the related methods. The niche-fitness model developed on the basis of niche can reflect the fitness degree of crops to environmental conditions relatively well. It can also be utilized to analyze factors restricting the growth of crops. However,there is little work on suitability evaluation especially multi-suitability evalua- tion on tillage by applying the niche-fitness theory. Under the guidance of the theory of sustainable devel- opment for Chinese agriculture, this paper aimed to use niche-fitness model to assess suitability degree and limiting factors of garden land in Yiling District of Hubei Province in China. Firstly, the index system of suitability evaluation was established including 5 sub-goals and 12 indices. Then,in order to normalize the measured value, indicators were categorized into numerical type, linguistic type and spatial diffusion type according to

  15. Groundwater-flow and land-subsidence model of Antelope Valley, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siade, Adam J.; Nishikawa, Tracy; Rewis, Diane L.; Martin, Peter; Phillips, Steven P.

    2014-01-01

    Antelope Valley, California, is a topographically closed basin in the western part of the Mojave Desert, about 50 miles northeast of Los Angeles. The Antelope Valley groundwater basin is about 940 square miles and is separated from the northern part of Antelope Valley by faults and low-lying hills. Prior to 1972, groundwater provided more than 90 percent of the total water supply in the valley; since 1972, it has provided between 50 and 90 percent. Most groundwater pumping in the valley occurs in the Antelope Valley groundwater basin, which includes the rapidly growing cities of Lancaster and Palmdale. Groundwater-level declines of more than 270 feet in some parts of the groundwater basin have resulted in an increase in pumping lifts, reduced well efficiency, and land subsidence of more than 6 feet in some areas. Future urban growth and limits on the supply of imported water may increase reliance on groundwater.

  16. Adult Neurogenesis: Ultrastructure of a Neurogenic Niche and Neurovascular Relationships

    OpenAIRE

    Paula Grazielle Chaves da Silva; Jeanne L Benton; Beltz, Barbara S.; Silvana Allodi

    2012-01-01

    The first-generation precursors producing adult-born neurons in the crayfish (Procambarus clarkii) brain reside in a specialized niche located on the ventral surface of the brain. In the present work, we have explored the organization and ultrastructure of this neurogenic niche, using light-level, confocal and electron microscopic approaches. Our goals were to define characteristics of the niche microenvironment, examine the morphological relationships between the niche and the vasculature an...

  17. St. Mary's Collegiate Church, Youghal, north choir wall, tomb niche, base of niche

    OpenAIRE

    O'Donovan, Danielle

    2005-01-01

    Base of tomb niche opening, moulding from top down comprises: roll, roll, bell, roll, roll, bell, curved plinth. Very unusual Perpendicular style base, other examples can be found at Strade, Sligo Dominican, Balintubber.

  18. Population genetics and ecological niche of invasive Aedes albopictus in Mexico.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pech-May, Angélica; Moo-Llanes, David A; Puerto-Avila, María Belem; Casas, Mauricio; Danis-Lozano, Rogelio; Ponce, Gustavo; Tun-Ku, Ezequiel; Pinto-Castillo, José Francisco; Villegas, Alejandro; Ibáñez-Piñon, Clemente R; González, Cassandra; Ramsey, Janine M

    2016-05-01

    The Asian tiger mosquito Aedes albopictus (Skuse), is one of the most invasive mosquito species worldwide. In Mexico it is now recorded in 12 states and represents a serious public health problem, given the recent introduction of Chikungunya on the southern border. The aim of this study was to analyze the population genetics of A. albopictus from all major recorded foci, and model its ecological niche. Niche similarity with that from its autochthonous distribution in Asia and other invaded countries were analyzed and its potential future expansion and potential human exposure in climate change scenarios measured. We analyzed 125 sequences of a 317 bp fragment of the cyt b gene from seven A. albopictus populations across Mexico. The samples belong to 25 haplotypes with moderate population structuring (Fst=0.081, pMexico. Both Neotropical and Nearctic regions are included in the Mexican niche model. Currently in Mexico, 38.6 million inhabitants are exposed to A. albopictus, which is expected to increase to 45.6 million by 2070. Genetic evidence supports collection information that A. albopictus was introduced to Mexico principally by land from the USA and Central and South America. Prevalent haplotypes from Mexico are shared with most invasive regions across the world, just as there was high niche similarity with both natural and invaded regions. The important overlap with the Asian niche model suggests a high potential for the species to disperse to sylvatic regions in Mexico.

  19. Novel Concordance Between Geographic, Environmental, and Genetic Structure in the Ecological Generalist Prickly Sculpin (Cottus asper) in California.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baumsteiger, Jason; Kinziger, Andrew P; Aguilar, Andres

    2016-11-01

    Ecological generalists may contain a wealth of information concerning diversity, ecology, and geographic connectivity throughout their range. We explored these ideas in prickly sculpin (Cottus asper), a small generalist freshwater fish species where coastal forms have potentially undergone radiations into inland lacustrine and riverine environments. Using a 962bp cytochrome b mtDNA marker and 11 microsatellites, we estimated diversity, divergence times, gene flow, and structure among populations at 43 locations throughout California. We then incorporated genetic and GIS data into ecological niche models to assess ecological conditions within identified groups. Though not reciprocally monophyletic, unique mtDNA haplotypes, microsatellite clustering, and measures of isolation by distance (Coastal: r = 0.960, P < 0.001; Inland: r = 0.277, P = 0.148) suggest 2 novel taxonomic groups, Coastal and Inland (constrained to Great Central Valley). Divergence estimates of 41-191 kya combined with the regional biogeographic history suggest geographic barriers are absent between groups since divergence, but ecological niche modeling revealed significant environmental differences (t = 10.84, P < 0.001). Introgressed individuals were also discovered between groups in an ecologically and geographically intermediate region. Population structure was limited, predominately found in tributaries of the San Joaquin basin in the Inland group. Overall, C. asper exhibited substantial genetic diversity, despite its ecological generality, reflecting California's historically unique and complex hydrology. More broadly, this study illustrates variable environments within the range of a generalist species may mask genetic divergences and should not be overlooked in biodiversity assessments. PMID:27489253

  20. Helicobacter urease: Niche construction at the single molecule level

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Shahid Khan; Asim Karim; Shaheryar Iqbal

    2009-10-01

    The urease of the human pathogen, Helicobacter pylori, is essential for pathogenesis. The ammonia produced by the enzyme neutralizes stomach acid; thereby modifying its environment. The dodecameric enzyme complex has high affinity for its substrate, urea. We compared urease sequences and derivative 3D homology model structures from all published Helicobacter genomes and an equal number of genomes belonging to strains of another enteric bacterium, Escherichia coli. We found that the enzyme’s architecture adapts to fit its niche. This finding, coupled to a survey of other physiological features responsible for the bacterium’s acid resistance, suggests how it copes with pH changes caused by disease onset and progression.

  1. District Allocation of Human Resources Utilizing the Evidence Based Model: A Study of One High Achieving School District in Southern California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lane, Amber Marie

    2013-01-01

    This study applies the Gap Analysis Framework to understand the gaps that exist in human resource allocation of one Southern California school district. Once identified, gaps are closed with the reallocation of human resources, according to the Evidenced Based Model, requiring the re-purposing of core classroom teachers, specialists, special…

  2. Natural Gas Variability In California: Environmental Impacts And Device Performance Combustion Modeling of Pollutant Emissions From a Residential Cooking Range

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tonse, S. R.; Singer, B. C.

    2011-07-01

    As part of a larger study of liquefied natural gas impacts on device performance and pollutant emissions for existing equipment in California, this report describes a cmoputer modeling study of a partially premixed flame issueing from a single cooktop burner port. The model consisted of a reactive computational fluid dynamics three-dimensional spatial grid and a 71-species chemical mechanism with propane combustion capability. Simulations were conducted with a simplified fuel mixture containing methane, ethane, and propane in proportions that yield properties similar to fuels distributed throughout much of California now and in recent years (baseline fuel), as well as with two variations of simulated liquefied natural gas blends. A variety of simulations were conducted with baseline fuel to explore the effect of several key parameters on pollutant formation and other flame characteristics. Simulations started with fuel and air issuing through the burner port, igniting, and continuing until the flame was steady with time. Conditions at this point were analyzed to understand fuel, secondary air and reaction product flows, regions of pollutant formation, and exhaust concentrations of carbon monoxide, nitric oxide and formaldehyde. A sensitivity study was conducted, varying the inflow parameters of this baseline gs about real-world operating conditions. Flame properties responded as expected from reactive flow theory. In the simulation, carbon monoxide levels were influenced more by the mixture's inflow velocity than by the gas-to-air ratio in the mixture issuing from the inflow port. Additional simulations were executed at two inflow conditions - high heat release and medium heat release - to examine the impact of replacing the baseline gas with two mixtures representative of liquefied natural gas. Flame properties and pollutant generation rates were very similar among the three fuel mixtures.

  3. Ten Niche Strategies To Commercialize New High-Tech Products

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ortt, J.R.; Langley, D.J.; Pals, N.

    2013-01-01

    There are serious gaps in the scientific literature relating to niche strategies as a means for commercializing new high-tech products. In particular, there is no clarity about what types of niche strategies can be distinguished, or how a niche strategy can be selected to suit a certain ituation. In

  4. Functional traits, convergent evolution, and periodic tables of niches.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winemiller, Kirk O; Fitzgerald, Daniel B; Bower, Luke M; Pianka, Eric R

    2015-08-01

    Ecology is often said to lack general theories sufficiently predictive for applications. Here, we examine the concept of a periodic table of niches and feasibility of niche classification schemes from functional trait and performance data. Niche differences and their influence on ecological patterns and processes could be revealed effectively by first performing data reduction/ordination analyses separately on matrices of trait and performance data compiled according to logical associations with five basic niche 'dimensions', or aspects: habitat, life history, trophic, defence and metabolic. Resultant patterns then are integrated to produce interpretable niche gradients, ordinations and classifications. Degree of scheme periodicity would depend on degrees of niche conservatism and convergence causing species clustering across multiple niche dimensions. We analysed a sample data set containing trait and performance data to contrast two approaches for producing niche schemes: species ordination within niche gradient space, and niche categorisation according to trait-value thresholds. Creation of niche schemes useful for advancing ecological knowledge and its applications will depend on research that produces functional trait and performance datasets directly related to niche dimensions along with criteria for data standardisation and quality. As larger databases are compiled, opportunities will emerge to explore new methods for data reduction, ordination and classification. PMID:26096695

  5. A Guide for Using the Transient Ground-Water Flow Model of the Death Valley Regional Ground-Water Flow System, Nevada and California

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Joan B. Blainey; Claudia C. Faunt, and Mary C. Hill

    2006-05-16

    This report is a guide for executing numerical simulations with the transient ground-water flow model of the Death Valley regional ground-water flow system, Nevada and California using the U.S. Geological Survey modular finite-difference ground-water flow model, MODFLOW-2000. Model inputs, including observations of hydraulic head, discharge, and boundary flows, are summarized. Modification of the DVRFS transient ground-water model is discussed for two common uses of the Death Valley regional ground-water flow system model: predictive pumping scenarios that extend beyond the end of the model simulation period (1998), and model simulations with only steady-state conditions.

  6. Study of the Logistics Enterprise Development Path based on Niche Theory

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Sun Wenxia

    2013-01-01

    This paper refers evolutionary ecology of niche theory,analyzes logistics enterprises niche,as well as niche overlapping,niche separation,niche compression,niche expansionetc.And on this basis,this paper proposes,the development path of the logistics enterprise “co-operation,with in the horizontal,external vertical cooperation”,hoping advancing further of logisticsenterprises.

  7. Numerical Atmospheric-Hydrologic Modeling-Based Flood Frequency Analysis from Future Climate Projections at Cache Creek Watershed, California.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trinh, T. Q.; Ishida, K.; Fischer, I.; Kavvas, M. L.

    2015-12-01

    Effect of climate change on hydrologic flow regimes, particularly extreme events, necessitates modeling of future flows in order to best inform water resources management. This study simulated future flows in the Cache Creek watershed in California, over the 21st century using a hydro-climate model (WEHY-HCM) forced by future climate projections. The futur