WorldWideScience

Sample records for calculating pulmonary-mode-lethality risk

  1. Calculated risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This book is a clear, practical, and balanced view of toxicology and risk management. The introduction argues the case for risks assessment and outlines the benefits and problems associated with chemical exposure. The first part of the book covers the basic science and the sources of human exposure to chemicals. Absorption, distribution, metabolism, and excretion are covered in some detail. The subsequent chapter gives a lively discussion of toxicity studies and then describes slow and fast poisons. The author gives the arguments for as well as against animal testing. There is much public bewilderment caused by reports of cancer-causing pesticides in apple juice and poisons emanating from nearby hazardous waste sites. The author believes that too much has been written in an attempt to expose governmental and corporate ignorance, negligence, and corruption. This book is less of a polemic, and more of a clear, unbiased clarification of the scientific basis for our concerns and uncertainties. It should serve to refocus the debate

  2. The new pooled cohort equations risk calculator

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Preiss, David; Kristensen, Søren L

    2015-01-01

    total cardiovascular risk score. During development of joint guidelines released in 2013 by the American College of Cardiology (ACC) and American Heart Association (AHA), the decision was taken to develop a new risk score. This resulted in the ACC/AHA Pooled Cohort Equations Risk Calculator. This risk...... calculator, based on major National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute-funded cohort studies, is designed to predict 10-year risk of 'hard' atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) events, namely, nonfatal myocardial infarction, fatal coronary heart disease, nonfatal, or fatal stroke. Considerable...... disease and any measure of social deprivation. An early criticism of the Pooled Cohort Equations Risk Calculator has been its alleged overestimation of ASCVD risk which, if confirmed in the general population, is likely to result in statin therapy being prescribed to many individuals at lower risk than...

  3. Periodontitis and Calculated Risk of Cardiovascular Mortality

    OpenAIRE

    Boutouyrie, P.; P. Bouchard; C. Mattout; Bourgeois, D.

    2008-01-01

    Epidemiological studies have reported associations between periodontitis and vascular disease in Europe. The aim of this multi-centric study was to evaluate the relationship between periodontitis and the calculated risk of cardiovascular death in the French adult population. The survey employed 2144 dentate adult subjects of the First National Periodontal and Systemic Examination Survey (NPASES I). This nationally representative sample was obtained by a quota method. The subjects had a compl...

  4. Recommendations for Insulin Dose Calculator Risk Management

    OpenAIRE

    Rees, Christen

    2014-01-01

    Several studies have shown the usefulness of an automated insulin dose bolus advisor (BA) in achieving improved glycemic control for insulin-using diabetes patients. Although regulatory agencies have approved several BAs over the past decades, these devices are not standardized in their approach to dosage calculation and include many features that may introduce risk to patients. Moreover, there is no single standard of care for diabetes worldwide and no guidance documents for BAs, specificall...

  5. Recommendations for Insulin Dose Calculator Risk Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-01-01

    Several studies have shown the usefulness of an automated insulin dose bolus advisor (BA) in achieving improved glycemic control for insulin-using diabetes patients. Although regulatory agencies have approved several BAs over the past decades, these devices are not standardized in their approach to dosage calculation and include many features that may introduce risk to patients. Moreover, there is no single standard of care for diabetes worldwide and no guidance documents for BAs, specifically. Given the emerging and more stringent regulations on software used in medical devices, the approval process is becoming more difficult for manufacturers to navigate, with some manufacturers opting to remove BAs from their products altogether. A comprehensive literature search was performed, including publications discussing: diabetes BA use and benefit, infusion pump safety and regulation, regulatory submissions, novel BAs, and recommendations for regulation and risk management of BAs. Also included were country-specific and international guidance documents for medical device, infusion pump, medical software, and mobile medical application risk management and regulation. No definitive worldwide guidance exists regarding risk management requirements for BAs, specifically. However, local and international guidance documents for medical devices, infusion pumps, and medical device software offer guidance that can be applied to this technology. In addition, risk management exercises that are algorithm-specific can help prepare manufacturers for regulatory submissions. This article discusses key issues relevant to BA use and safety, and recommends risk management activities incorporating current research and guidance. PMID:24876550

  6. CALCULATING ECONOMIC RISK AFTER HANFORD CLEANUP

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Scott, M.J.

    2003-02-27

    Since late 1997, researchers at the Hanford Site have been engaged in the Groundwater Protection Project (formerly, the Groundwater/Vadose Zone Project), developing a suite of integrated physical and environmental models and supporting data to trace the complex path of Hanford legacy contaminants through the environment for the next thousand years, and to estimate corresponding environmental, human health, economic, and cultural risks. The linked set of models and data is called the System Assessment Capability (SAC). The risk mechanism for economics consists of ''impact triggers'' (sequences of physical and human behavior changes in response to, or resulting from, human health or ecological risks), and processes by which particular trigger mechanisms induce impacts. Economic impacts stimulated by the trigger mechanisms may take a variety of forms, including changes in either costs or revenues for economic sectors associated with the affected resource or activity. An existing local economic impact model was adapted to calculate the resulting impacts on output, employment, and labor income in the local economy (the Tri-Cities Economic Risk Model or TCERM). The SAC researchers ran a test suite of 25 realization scenarios for future contamination of the Columbia River after site closure for a small subset of the radionuclides and hazardous chemicals known to be present in the environment at the Hanford Site. These scenarios of potential future river contamination were analyzed in TCERM. Although the TCERM model is sensitive to river contamination under a reasonable set of assumptions concerning reactions of the authorities and the public, the scenarios show low enough future contamination that the impacts on the local economy are small.

  7. Perceived and calculated health risks: do the impacts differ

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Payne, B.A.; Williams, R.G.

    1986-01-23

    In many cases of radioactive and hazardous waste management, some members of the general public perceive that human health risks associated with the wastes are higher than the calculated risks. Calculated risks are projections that have been derived from models, and it is these risks that are usually used as the basis for waste management. However, for various reasons, the calculated risks are often considered by the public as too low or inappropriate. The reasons that calculated risks are not perceived as accurate and the factors that affect these perceptions are explored in this paper. Also discussed are the impacts related to the perceived and calculated health risks: what they are, and if and how they differ. The kinds of potential impacts examined are health effects, land value changes, and social, transportation, and economic effects. The paper concludes with a discussion of the implications of incorporating these different risk perspectives in decisions on waste management.

  8. Perceived and calculated health risks: Do the impacts differ

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In many cases of radioactive and hazardous waste management, some members of the general public perceive that human health risks associated with the wastes are higher than the calculated risks. Calculated risks are projections that have been derived from models, and it is these risks that are usually used as the basis for waste management. However, for various reasons, the calculated risks are often considered by the public as too low or inappropriate. The reasons that calculated risks are not perceived as accurate and the factors that affect these perceptions are explored in this paper. Also discussed are the impacts related to the perceived and calculated health risks: what they are, and if and how they differ. The kinds of potential impacts examined are health effects, land value changes, and social, transportation, and economic effects. The paper concludes with a discussion of the implications of incorporating these different risk perspectives in decisions on waste management

  9. Perceived and calculated health risks: do the impacts differ

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In many cases of radioactive and hazardous waste management, some members of the general public perceive that human health risks associated with the wastes are higher than the calculated risks. Calculated risks are projections that have been derived from models, and it is these risks that are usually used as the basis for waste management. However, for various reasons, the calculated risks are often considered by the public as too low or inappropriate. The reasons that calculated risks are not perceived as accurate and the factors that affect these perceptions are explored in this paper. Also discussed are the impacts related to the perceived and calculated health risks: what they are, and if and how they differ. The kinds of potential impacts examined are health effects, land value changes, and social, transportation, and economic effects. The paper concludes with a discussion of the implications of incorporating these different risk perspectives in decisions on waste management

  10. Calculation of background lifetime risk of cancer mortality in Japan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This study was designed to calculate the background lifetime risk of cancer mortality in Japan. The mortality and population data obtained from national surveys for the vital statistics and population census in 2010 are stratified at 5-year age intervals of 0-4, 5-9, ..., 80-84, with a final open interval of 85+ for use in a life table. It was found that the gender-averaged background lifetime risk of cancer mortality ranges from 23.7% to 28.3% among 47 prefectures, and the arithmetic mean was calculated to be 25.4%. It is important to consider the incremental risk of cancer mortality posed by exposure to ionizing radiation (e.g., an additive lifetime risk of 0.5% at the effective dose of 100 mSv) in the context of the level of the background lifetime risk of cancer mortality of the exposed population. (author)

  11. Relative Hazard and Risk Measure Calculation Methodology Rev 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Documentation of the methodology used to calculate relative hazard and risk measure results for the DOE complex wide risk profiles. This methodology is used on major site risk profiles. In February 1997, the Center for Risk Excellence (CRE) was created and charged as a technical, field-based partner to the Office of Science and Risk Policy (EM-52). One of the initial charges to the CRE is to assist the sites in the development of ''site risk profiles.'' These profiles are to be relatively short summaries (periodically updated) that present a broad perspective on the major risk related challenges that face the respective site. The risk profiles are intended to serve as a high-level communication tool for interested internal and external parties to enhance the understanding of these risk-related challenges. The risk profiles for each site have been designed to qualitatively present the following information: (1) a brief overview of the site, (2) a brief discussion on the historical mission of the site, (3) a quote from the site manager indicating the site's commitment to risk management, (4) a listing of the site's top risk-related challenges, (5) a brief discussion and detailed table presenting the site's current risk picture, (6) a brief discussion and detailed table presenting the site's future risk reduction picture, and (7) graphic illustrations of the projected management of the relative hazards at the site. The graphic illustrations were included to provide the reader of the risk profiles with a high-level mental picture to associate with all the qualitative information presented in the risk profile. Inclusion of these graphic illustrations presented the CRE with the challenge of how to fold this high-level qualitative risk information into a system to produce a numeric result that would depict the relative change in hazard, associated with each major risk management action, so it could be presented graphically. This report presents the methodology developed

  12. Objective risk adjustment improves calculated ROI for capital projects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holmes, R L; Schroeder, R E; Harrington, L F

    2000-12-01

    Most healthcare organizations can ill afford to assume risk for which they are inadequately compensated. When capital projects are being considered, factoring risk with an adjustment to the projected cost of capital can increase the calculated return on investment and improve the net present value of anticipated cash flow. This adjustment factor, however, should reflect the capital structure of the organization, historical average returns, and variance in the context of the market, the specific industry, and similar projects being considered. PMID:11141687

  13. Comparative analysis between RiskA and Risk spectrum in fault tree calculation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    RiskA is a home-developed probabilistic safety assessment software by FDS team. Large numbers of real fault tree models of nuclear power plants are calculated by RiskA and Risk Spectrum. Comparative analysis shows that the fault tree qualitative and quantitative analysis of RiskA is accurate and efficient. On the contrary, Risk Spectrum may be ill-considered and faulty in some cases though it is used by 40% of the world nuclear power plants, as the probability of each MCS is inconsistent with theoretical value which is calculated based on the technology of rank truncation. (authors)

  14. Evaluating risk using bounding calculations and limited data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    COWLEY, W.L.

    1999-05-27

    This paper describes a methodology for estimating the potential risk to workers and the public from igniting organic solvents in any of the 177 underground waste storage tanks at the Hanford Site in southeastern Washington state. The Hanford Site is one of the U.S. Department of Energy's former production facilities for nuclear materials. The tanks contain mixed radioactive wastes. Risk is measured by calculating toxicological and radiological accident consequences and frequencies and comparing the results to established regulatory guidelines. Available sample data is insufficient to adequately characterize the waste and solvent, so a model that maximizes releases from the tanks (bounding case) is used. Maximizing releases (and thus consequences) is a standard technique used in safety analysis to compensate for lack of information. The model predicts bounding values of fire duration, the time at which the fire extinguishes because of lack of oxygen, and a pressure history of a fire in a tank. The model output is used to calculate mass and volume release rates of material from the tanks. The mass and volume release rates permit calculation of radiological and toxicological consequences. The resulting consequence calculations demonstrate that risk from an organic solvent fire in the tanks is within regulatory guidelines.

  15. Evaluating risk using bounding calculations and limited data; TOPICAL

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper describes a methodology for estimating the potential risk to workers and the public from igniting organic solvents in any of the 177 underground waste storage tanks at the Hanford Site in southeastern Washington state. The Hanford Site is one of the U.S. Department of Energy's former production facilities for nuclear materials. The tanks contain mixed radioactive wastes. Risk is measured by calculating toxicological and radiological accident consequences and frequencies and comparing the results to established regulatory guidelines. Available sample data is insufficient to adequately characterize the waste and solvent, so a model that maximizes releases from the tanks (bounding case) is used. Maximizing releases (and thus consequences) is a standard technique used in safety analysis to compensate for lack of information. The model predicts bounding values of fire duration, the time at which the fire extinguishes because of lack of oxygen, and a pressure history of a fire in a tank. The model output is used to calculate mass and volume release rates of material from the tanks. The mass and volume release rates permit calculation of radiological and toxicological consequences. The resulting consequence calculations demonstrate that risk from an organic solvent fire in the tanks is within regulatory guidelines

  16. Risk calculations in the manufacturing technology selection process

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Farooq, S.; O'Brien, C.

    2010-01-01

    the paper are the outcome of an action research study that was conducted in an aerospace company. Findings - The paper highlights the role of risk calculations in manufacturing technology selection process by elaborating the contribution of risk associated with manufacturing technology alternatives in...... manufacturing and supply chain environment. The evaluation of a manufacturing technology considering supply chain opportunities and threats provides a broader perspective to the technology evaluation process. The inclusion of supply chain dimension in technology selection process facilitates an organisation to...... select a manufacturing technology not only according to its own requirements, but also according to the interest of its constituent supply chain....

  17. Benign muscular dystrophy: risk calculation in families with consanguinity.

    OpenAIRE

    Wolff, G; Müller, C R; Grimm, T

    1989-01-01

    This report concerns two families in which the index patients are sporadic cases of a benign form of muscular dystrophy. In both families the sisters of the patients have married a close relative. The respective risks for a child of these consanguineous marriages being affected with either X linked Becker muscular dystrophy or autosomal recessive limb girdle muscular dystrophy is calculated using pedigree information, results of serum creatine kinase determinations, and also, in one family, r...

  18. Coastal flooding risk calculations for the Belgian coast

    OpenAIRE

    Verwaest, T.; Van der Biest, K.; Vanpoucke, Ph.; Reyns, J.; Vanderkimpen, P.; de Vos, L.; De Rouck, J.; Mertens, T.

    2009-01-01

    Coastal flooding risk calculations are carried out for the entire Belgian coastal zone to support the management ofthe coastal defence system. The floodprone low-lying coastal area has an average width of 20 km and is locatedon average 2 m below the surge level of an annual storm. The natural sea defences are sandy beaches anddunes, which have been strengthened by revetments in the coastal towns. The Belgian standard of coastalprotection is to be safe against a surge level with a return perio...

  19. Approximate dynamic fault tree calculations for modelling water supply risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Traditional fault tree analysis is not always sufficient when analysing complex systems. To overcome the limitations dynamic fault tree (DFT) analysis is suggested in the literature as well as different approaches for how to solve DFTs. For added value in fault tree analysis, approximate DFT calculations based on a Markovian approach are presented and evaluated here. The approximate DFT calculations are performed using standard Monte Carlo simulations and do not require simulations of the full Markov models, which simplifies model building and in particular calculations. It is shown how to extend the calculations of the traditional OR- and AND-gates, so that information is available on the failure probability, the failure rate and the mean downtime at all levels in the fault tree. Two additional logic gates are presented that make it possible to model a system's ability to compensate for failures. This work was initiated to enable correct analyses of water supply risks. Drinking water systems are typically complex with an inherent ability to compensate for failures that is not easily modelled using traditional logic gates. The approximate DFT calculations are compared to results from simulations of the corresponding Markov models for three water supply examples. For the traditional OR- and AND-gates, and one gate modelling compensation, the errors in the results are small. For the other gate modelling compensation, the error increases with the number of compensating components. The errors are, however, in most cases acceptable with respect to uncertainties in input data. The approximate DFT calculations improve the capabilities of fault tree analysis of drinking water systems since they provide additional and important information and are simple and practically applicable.

  20. Dose and Risk Calculations for Decontamination of a Hot Cell Dose and Risk Calculations for Decontamination of a Hot Cell

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Transporting and processing of radioisotopes and irradiated targets inside hot cells generate a significant contamination. The majority of contamination comes from dispersion of radioactive materials during processing the samples after irradiation. Processing includes opening, extracting the irradiated samples, and preparing the samples in a shield prior to transportation. A model of dispersion of radioactive products inside the cell is postulated. Before decontaminating the cell, the expected dose received by the worker must be evaluated. A RESRAD-BUILD code is used in this study to calculate the dose and the corresponding risk. The calculated dose received during the decontamination process is more than the permissible dose and many proposals are presented in the study to decrease the level of received doses

  1. Preliminar calculation of tornado risk in the site of Ipero

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pacheco, Rafael R.; Costa, Saulo Barros, E-mail: rafael.rade@ctmsp.mar.mil.br, E-mail: saulo.costa@ctmsp.mar.mil.br [Centro Tecnologico da Marinha em Sao Paulo (CTMSP), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil); Andrade, Delvonei A., E-mail: delvonei@ipen.br [Instituto de Pesquisas Energeticas e Nucleares (IPEN/CNEN-SP), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil)

    2015-07-01

    General Design Criterion (GDC) 2 to 10 CFR 50 requires that 'structures, systems, and components that are important to safety shall be designed to withstand the effects of natural phenomena, such as tornadoes, without loss of capability to perform their safety functions'. According to Regulatory Guide 1.76, the design-basis intensity of a tornado for a nuclear power plant shall not exceed the intensity of the strongest tornado that occurs with the frequency of 10-7/years. Reinforcing the plant to achieve this goal represents a high increase in the costs of the project, and correspondently increase in the time required to have it commissioned. This way, the right definition of tornado risk in a site would represent savings in money for the project and in time for the licensing of a nuclear power plants. This works aims to establish a preliminary calculation of the tornado risk in the site of Ipero, where will work LABGENE from Brazilian Navy, and RMB from CNEN. (author)

  2. Calculating Least Risk Paths in 3d Indoor Space

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vanclooster, A.; De Maeyer, Ph.; Fack, V.; Van de Weghe, N.

    2013-08-01

    Over the last couple of years, research on indoor environments has gained a fresh impetus; more specifically applications that support navigation and wayfinding have become one of the booming industries. Indoor navigation research currently covers the technological aspect of indoor positioning and the modelling of indoor space. The algorithmic development to support navigation has so far been left mostly untouched, as most applications mainly rely on adapting Dijkstra's shortest path algorithm to an indoor network. However, alternative algorithms for outdoor navigation have been proposed adding a more cognitive notion to the calculated paths and as such adhering to the natural wayfinding behaviour (e.g. simplest paths, least risk paths). These algorithms are currently restricted to outdoor applications. The need for indoor cognitive algorithms is highlighted by a more challenged navigation and orientation due to the specific indoor structure (e.g. fragmentation, less visibility, confined areas…). As such, the clarity and easiness of route instructions is of paramount importance when distributing indoor routes. A shortest or fastest path indoors not necessarily aligns with the cognitive mapping of the building. Therefore, the aim of this research is to extend those richer cognitive algorithms to three-dimensional indoor environments. More specifically for this paper, we will focus on the application of the least risk path algorithm of Grum (2005) to an indoor space. The algorithm as proposed by Grum (2005) is duplicated and tested in a complex multi-storey building. The results of several least risk path calculations are compared to the shortest paths in indoor environments in terms of total length, improvement in route description complexity and number of turns. Several scenarios are tested in this comparison: paths covering a single floor, paths crossing several building wings and/or floors. Adjustments to the algorithm are proposed to be more aligned to the

  3. Prospective validation of a risk calculator which calculates the probability of a positive prostate biopsy in a contemporary clinical cohort

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Vugt, Heidi A.; Kranse, Ries; Steyerberg, Ewout W.; van der Poel, Henk G.; Busstra, Martijn; Kil, Paul; Oomens, Eric H.; de Jong, Igle J.; Bangma, Chris H.; Roobol, Monique J.

    2012-01-01

    Background: Prediction models need validation to assess their value outside the development setting. Objective: To assess the external validity of the European Randomised study of Screening for Prostate Cancer (ERSPC) Risk Calculator (RC) in a contemporary clinical cohort. Methods: The RC calculates

  4. Hair 2010 Documentation: Calculating risk indicators related to agricultural use of pesticides within the European Union

    OpenAIRE

    Kruijne, R.; Deneer, J.W.; Lahr, J.; Vlaming, J.

    2011-01-01

    The HAIR instrument calculates risk indicators related to the agricultural use of pesticides in EU Member States. HAIR combines databases and models for calculating potential environmental environmental effects expressed by the exposure toxicity ratio.

  5. HOW TO CALCULATE INFORMATION VALUE FOR EFFECTIVE SECURITY RISK ASSESSMENT

    OpenAIRE

    Mario Sajko; Kornelije Rabuzin; Miroslav Bača

    2006-01-01

    The actual problem of information security (infosec) risk assessment is determining the value of information property or asset. This is particularly manifested through the use of quantitative methodology in which it is necessary to state the information value in quantitative sizes. The aim of this paper is to describe the evaluation possibilities of business information values, and the criteria needed for determining importance of information. For this purpose, the dimensions of information v...

  6. Basel II Approaches for the Calculation of the Regulatory Capital for Operational Risk

    OpenAIRE

    Ivana Valová

    2011-01-01

    The final version of the New Capital Accord, which includes operational risk, was released by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision in June 2004. The article “Basel II approaches for the calculation of the regulatory capital for operational risk” is devoted to the issue of operational risk of credit financial institutions. The paper talks about methods of operational risk calculation, advantages and disadvantages of particular methods.

  7. Method to calculate additional ramps explicity (CARE) in quantitative risk analysis for road tunnels

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nelisse, R.M.L.; Vrouwenvelder, A.C.W.M.

    2014-01-01

    Article 13 of the EU Directive on minimum safety requirements for tunnels in the Trans-European Road Network states that a risk analysis, where necessary, shall be carried out. In the Netherlands, the risk of decease for road users in a tunnel (internal risk) is calculated with a model for quantitat

  8. HOW TO CALCULATE INFORMATION VALUE FOR EFFECTIVE SECURITY RISK ASSESSMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mario Sajko

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available The actual problem of information security (infosec risk assessment is determining the value of information property or asset. This is particularly manifested through the use of quantitative methodology in which it is necessary to state the information value in quantitative sizes. The aim of this paper is to describe the evaluation possibilities of business information values, and the criteria needed for determining importance of information. For this purpose, the dimensions of information values will be determined and the ways used to present the importance of information contents will be studied. There are two basic approaches that can be used in evaluation: qualitative and quantitative. Often they are combined to determine forms of information content. The proposed criterion is the three-dimension model, which combines the existing experiences (i.e. possible solutions for information value assessment with our own criteria. An attempt for structuring information value in a business environment will be made as well.

  9. Illstrative probabilistic biosphere model for Yucca Mountain individual risk calculations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The proposed EPA Standards for the disposal of spent fuel, high-level and transuranic radioactive waste prescribe future biosphere--one in which no sustained human activity occurs inside the controlled zone, yet sustained use of groundwater occurs just outside the controlled zone boundary. Performance assessments have generally assumed a person at this location extracts all his water needs directly from the projected contaminated plume for all of his life. Dose to this maximally-exposed individual is too conservative a measure of performance for a nuclear waste repository and does not reflect the isolation characteristics of a site. A better measure is individual risk in which uncertainties in biosphere characteristics for the longer periods of performance, for a site like Yucca Mountain only those characteristics associated with well water scenarios need be prescribed. Such a prescription of the biosphere is appropriate because the goal of the regulations is to provide indicators of future performance so the regulators can make a responsible decision regarding reasonable assurance of public health and safety

  10. Current state of copper stabilizers and methodology towards calculating risk

    CERN Document Server

    Koratzinos, M

    2011-01-01

    The talk will start by reviewing the landscape: a brief mention of the results of the warm copper stabilizer measurements and the results of the splice measurements at cold will be shown. The preliminary results of the recent RRR measurements will then be presented. Then, together with the limits presented from talk no. 2, the probability of an incident will be presented for beam energies between 3.5 and 5TeV. The available methods at our disposal for addressing the limiting factors and operating at a higher energy will then be reviewed: a complete circuit qualification method coined the Thermal Amplifier can define the maximum safe energy of the LHC in case of a quench next to a defective joint. Ways of avoiding magnet quenches, another critical element of the analysis, for instance by optimizing BLM settings will then be shown. Finally, a proposal of a strategy for running at the highest possible energy compatible with a pre-defined level of risk will be presented. As a case study, the method will also be a...

  11. Mobile application-based Seoul National University Prostate Cancer Risk Calculator: development, validation, and comparative analysis with two Western risk calculators in Korean men.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chang Wook Jeong

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVES: We developed a mobile application-based Seoul National University Prostate Cancer Risk Calculator (SNUPC-RC that predicts the probability of prostate cancer (PC at the initial prostate biopsy in a Korean cohort. Additionally, the application was validated and subjected to head-to-head comparisons with internet-based Western risk calculators in a validation cohort. Here, we describe its development and validation. PATIENTS AND METHODS: As a retrospective study, consecutive men who underwent initial prostate biopsy with more than 12 cores at a tertiary center were included. In the development stage, 3,482 cases from May 2003 through November 2010 were analyzed. Clinical variables were evaluated, and the final prediction model was developed using the logistic regression model. In the validation stage, 1,112 cases from December 2010 through June 2012 were used. SNUPC-RC was compared with the European Randomized Study of Screening for PC Risk Calculator (ERSPC-RC and the Prostate Cancer Prevention Trial Risk Calculator (PCPT-RC. The predictive accuracy was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC. The clinical value was evaluated using decision curve analysis. RESULTS: PC was diagnosed in 1,240 (35.6% and 417 (37.5% men in the development and validation cohorts, respectively. Age, prostate-specific antigen level, prostate size, and abnormality on digital rectal examination or transrectal ultrasonography were significant factors of PC and were included in the final model. The predictive accuracy in the development cohort was 0.786. In the validation cohort, AUC was significantly higher for the SNUPC-RC (0.811 than for ERSPC-RC (0.768, p<0.001 and PCPT-RC (0.704, p<0.001. Decision curve analysis also showed higher net benefits with SNUPC-RC than with the other calculators. CONCLUSIONS: SNUPC-RC has a higher predictive accuracy and clinical benefit than Western risk calculators. Furthermore, it is easy

  12. The risk of major nuclear accident: calculation and perception of probabilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Whereas before the Fukushima accident, already eight major accidents occurred in nuclear power plants, a number which is higher than that expected by experts and rather close to that corresponding of people perception of risk, the author discusses how to understand these differences and reconcile observations, objective probability of accidents and subjective assessment of risks, why experts have been over-optimistic, whether public opinion is irrational regarding nuclear risk, and how to measure risk and its perception. Thus, he addresses and discusses the following issues: risk calculation (cost, calculated frequency of major accident, bias between the number of observed accidents and model predictions), perceived probabilities and aversion for disasters (perception biases of probability, perception biases unfavourable to nuclear), the Bayes contribution and its application (Bayes-Laplace law, statistics, choice of an a priori probability, prediction of the next event, probability of a core fusion tomorrow)

  13. Comparison of estimates and calculations of risk of coronary heart disease by doctors and nurses using different calculation tools in general practice: cross sectional study.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    McManus, R.J.; Mant, J.; Meulendijks, C.F.M.; Salter, R.A.; Pattison, H.M.; Roalfe, A.K.; Hobbs, F.D.

    2002-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To assess the effect of using different risk calculation tools on how general practitioners and practice nurses evaluate the risk of coronary heart disease with clinical data routinely available in patients' records. DESIGN: Subjective estimates of the risk of coronary heart disease and r

  14. UFOMOD - program to calculate the radiological consequences of reactor accidents within risk studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The FORTRAN-IV computer code UFOMOD calculates the radiological consequences of reactor accidents for risk studies, namely early deaths, latent cancer deaths and genetic significant doses. Different models for the atmospheric transport and deposition, the dose calculation, the countermeasures and the injuries are used to calculate individual and collective injury. Up to 54 radionuclides, 10 release categories, 4 meteorological zones, 10 population distributions per zone with up to 36 sectors and 50 rings, and 115 weather sequences per zone may be used. The deterministic results are combined together with the respective probabilities and frequencies to give complementary cumulative frequency distributions. This report describes the computer code and its input and output. (orig.)

  15. Easy calculations of lod scores and genetic risks on small computers.

    OpenAIRE

    Lathrop, G M; Lalouel, J M

    1984-01-01

    A computer program that calculates lod scores and genetic risks for a wide variety of both qualitative and quantitative genetic traits is discussed. An illustration is given of the joint use of a genetic marker, affection status, and quantitative information in counseling situations regarding Duchenne muscular dystrophy.

  16. [Models for calculating risks as a tool in screening for cardiovascular diseases].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bryndorf, T E; Petersen, H H; Baastrup, A; Bremmelgaard, A; Videbaek, J

    1990-04-16

    In connection with screening for risk factors for ischaemic heart disease in Bispebjerg Hospital, we have assessed three different models for calculation of the risk, employed on our own material. A total of 462 persons participated in the screening and 275 of these were under the age of 65 years. Out of these 275, 92 had plasma cholesterol values over or equal to 7.0 mmol/l and or smoked over 20 gram tobacco daily. On comparison between three models for calculation of the risk: one American, one British and one Swedish, moderate agreement was observed: the correlation coefficients varied between 0.75 and 0.89. The reason for this may be that the models for calculation of the risk are constructed on the basis of statistics already described from epidemiological investigations in which coincidence is demonstrated between selected observable factors and ischaemic heart disease. It is thus possible that the factors which we measure and possibly attempt to influence are not pathogenetic. We consider, therefore, that risk scoring should be employed with caution. As causal connection between ischaemic heart disease and cholesterol and smoking, respectively, have been demonstrated with reasonable certainty, we consider that it is reasonable to screen and intervene for these factors alone. PMID:2330641

  17. RESRAD for Radiological Risk Assessment. Comparison with EPA CERCLA Tools - PRG and DCC Calculators

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yu, C. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Cheng, J. -J. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Kamboj, S. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States)

    2015-07-01

    The purpose of this report is two-fold. First, the risk assessment methodology for both RESRAD and the EPA’s tools is reviewed. This includes a review of the EPA’s justification for 2 using a dose-to-risk conversion factor to reduce the dose-based protective ARAR from 15 to 12 mrem/yr. Second, the models and parameters used in RESRAD and the EPA PRG and DCC Calculators are compared in detail, and the results are summarized and discussed. Although there are suites of software tools in the RESRAD family of codes and the EPA Calculators, the scope of this report is limited to the RESRAD (onsite) code for soil contamination and the EPA’s PRG and DCC Calculators also for soil contamination.

  18. A model for calculation and comparison of risks to health due to generation of current using several energy sources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A model is presented for calculation and comparison of risks to health due to generation of current using several primary energy sources. It is shown that the maximum risks in the Federal Republic of Germany come from coal and oil and that it will be impossible to keep constant the present day risks without using atomic energy. Exact calculations of future risks are not possible because the available data sets are deficient

  19. Calculating credit risk capital charges with the one-factor model

    OpenAIRE

    Susanne Emmer; Dirk Tasche

    2003-01-01

    Even in the simple one-factor credit portfolio model that underlies the Basel II regulatory capital rules coming into force in 2007, the exact contributions to credit value-at-risk can only be calculated with Monte-Carlo simulation or with approximation algorithms that often involve numerical integration. As this may require a lot of computational time, there is a need for approximate analytical formulae. In this note, we develop formulae according to two different approaches: the granularity...

  20. Coastal flood risks and seasonal tourism: analyzing the effects of tourism dynamics on casualty calculations

    OpenAIRE

    Kellens, W.; Neutens, T.; Deckers, P.; Reyns, J.; P. De Maeyer

    2012-01-01

    Since coastal tourism is one of the fastest growing sectors of tourism industry, coastal areas have become increasingly vulnerable in the case of flooding. While in recent years a number of different methods have been put forward to map coastal flood risks, the implications of tourism dynamics for the assessment of human casualties has remained largely overlooked in these models. This chapter examines to what extent the ignorance of ( residential) coastal tourism may bias the calculations of ...

  1. DSTiPE Algorithm for Fuzzy Spatio-Temporal Risk Calculation in Wireless Environments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kurt Derr; Milos Manic

    2008-09-01

    Time and location data play a very significant role in a variety of factory automation scenarios, such as automated vehicles and robots, their navigation, tracking, and monitoring, to services of optimization and security. In addition, pervasive wireless capabilities combined with time and location information are enabling new applications in areas such as transportation systems, health care, elder care, military, emergency response, critical infrastructure, and law enforcement. A person/object in proximity to certain areas for specific durations of time may pose a risk hazard either to themselves, others, or the environment. This paper presents a novel fuzzy based spatio-temporal risk calculation DSTiPE method that an object with wireless communications presents to the environment. The presented Matlab based application for fuzzy spatio-temporal risk cluster extraction is verified on a diagonal vehicle movement example.

  2. STRRAP system-A software for hazardous materials risk assessment and safe distances calculation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Godoy, S.M. [GIAIQ-Grupo de Investigacion en Informatica Aplicada a la Ingenieria Quimica, Universidad Tecnologica Nacional-Facultad Regional Rosario, Zeballos 1341-S2000 BQA Rosario, Santa Fe (Argentina); Santa Cruz, A.S.M. [GIAIQ-Grupo de Investigacion en Informatica Aplicada a la Ingenieria Quimica, Universidad Tecnologica Nacional-Facultad Regional Rosario, Zeballos 1341-S2000 BQA Rosario, Santa Fe (Argentina); Scenna, N.J. [GIAIQ-Grupo de Investigacion en Informatica Aplicada a la Ingenieria Quimica, Universidad Tecnologica Nacional-Facultad Regional Rosario, Zeballos 1341-S2000 BQA Rosario, Santa Fe (Argentina) and INGAR-Instituto de Desarrollo y Diseno (Fundacion ARCIEN-CONICET), Avellaneda 3657-S3002 GJC Santa Fe (Argentina)]. E-mail: nscenna@ceride.gov.ar

    2007-07-15

    This work presents a powerful computational tool (Stochastic Toxic Release Risk Assessment Package, STRRAP) useful in risk assessment and emergency planning (safe distance calculation), which allows to handle the stochastic uncertainty of atmospheric parameters, critical for risk calculation when diffusion of hazardous gases or particulate matter occur as a consequence of an emission or accidental release. In fact, the random behaviour of wind intensity, wind direction, atmospheric stability and temperature, given a time horizon, (a season or a complete year), is taken into account considering also the day or night condition. STRRAP can be used for releases or emissions from static sources (for example a stack or a fixed tank in a facility) or from transportation accidents (road, rail, maritime and pipeline transport) involving different scenarios. After a stochastic simulation based on well-known diffusion models (dense and light gases, particulate matter) is carried out, the downwind pollutant concentrations are obtained, in order to compute safe distances and/or individual and societal risks. Some study cases are analyzed to show STRRAP capabilities.

  3. STRRAP system-A software for hazardous materials risk assessment and safe distances calculation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This work presents a powerful computational tool (Stochastic Toxic Release Risk Assessment Package, STRRAP) useful in risk assessment and emergency planning (safe distance calculation), which allows to handle the stochastic uncertainty of atmospheric parameters, critical for risk calculation when diffusion of hazardous gases or particulate matter occur as a consequence of an emission or accidental release. In fact, the random behaviour of wind intensity, wind direction, atmospheric stability and temperature, given a time horizon, (a season or a complete year), is taken into account considering also the day or night condition. STRRAP can be used for releases or emissions from static sources (for example a stack or a fixed tank in a facility) or from transportation accidents (road, rail, maritime and pipeline transport) involving different scenarios. After a stochastic simulation based on well-known diffusion models (dense and light gases, particulate matter) is carried out, the downwind pollutant concentrations are obtained, in order to compute safe distances and/or individual and societal risks. Some study cases are analyzed to show STRRAP capabilities

  4. Calculating background levels for ecological risk parameters in toxic harbor sediment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leadon, C.J.; McDonnell, T.R.; Lear, J.; Barclift, D.

    2007-01-01

    Establishing background levels for biological parameters is necessary in assessing the ecological risks from harbor sediment contaminated with toxic chemicals. For chemicals in sediment, the term contaminated is defined as having concentrations above background and significant human health or ecological risk levels. For biological parameters, a site could be considered contaminated if levels of the parameter are either more or less than the background level, depending on the specific parameter. Biological parameters can include tissue chemical concentrations in ecological receptors, bioassay responses, bioaccumulation levels, and benthic community metrics. Chemical parameters can include sediment concentrations of a variety of potentially toxic chemicals. Indirectly, contaminated harbor sediment can impact shellfish, fish, birds, and marine mammals, and human populations. This paper summarizes the methods used to define background levels for chemical and biological parameters from a survey of ecological risk investigations of marine harbor sediment at California Navy bases. Background levels for regional biological indices used to quantify ecological risks for benthic communities are also described. Generally, background stations are positioned in relatively clean areas exhibiting the same physical and general chemical characteristics as nearby areas with contaminated harbor sediment. The number of background stations and the number of sample replicates per background station depend on the statistical design of the sediment ecological risk investigation, developed through the data quality objective (DQO) process. Biological data from the background stations can be compared to data from a contaminated site by using minimum or maximum background levels or comparative statistics. In Navy ecological risk assessments (ERA's), calculated background levels and appropriate ecological risk screening criteria are used to identify sampling stations and sites with contaminated

  5. Look Before You Leap: What Are the Obstacles to Risk Calculation in the Equestrian Sport of Eventing?

    OpenAIRE

    Denzil O’Brien

    2016-01-01

    Simple Summary This paper examines a number of methods for calculating injury risk for riders in the equestrian sport of eventing, and suggests that the primary locus of risk is the action of the horse jumping, and the jump itself. The paper argues that risk calculation should therefore focus first on this locus. Abstract All horse-riding is risky. In competitive horse sports, eventing is considered the riskiest, and is often characterised as very dangerous. But based on what data? There has ...

  6. Statistical evaluation of population data for calculation of radioactive material transport accident risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Calculation of accident dose-risk estimates with the RADTRAN code requires input data describing the population likely to be affected by the plume of radioactive material (RAM) released in a hypothetical transportation accident. In the existing model, population densities within 1/2 mile (0.8 km) of the route centerline are tabulated in three ranges (Rural, Suburban, and Urban). These population densities may be of questionable validity since the plume in the RADTRAN analysis is assumed to extend out to 120 km from the hypothetical accident site. The authors present a GIS-based population model which accounts for the actual distribution of population under a potential plume, and compare accident-risk estimates based on the resulting population densities with those based on the existing model. Results for individual points along a route differ greatly, but the cumulative accident risks for a sample route of a few hundred kilometers are found to be comparable, if not identical. The authors conclude, therefore, that for estimation of aggregate accident risks over typical routes of several hundred kilometers, the existing, simpler RADTRAN model is sufficiently detailed and accurate

  7. Posttest risk calculation following positive noninvasive prenatal screening using cell-free DNA in maternal plasma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benn, Peter

    2016-06-01

    Noninvasive prenatal screening (NIPS) for fetal chromosome defects has high sensitivity and specificity but is not fully diagnostic. In response to a desire to provide more information to individual women with positive NIPS results, 2 online calculators have been developed to calculate posttest risk (PTR). Use of these calculators is critically reviewed. There is a mathematically dictated requirement for a precise estimate for the specificity to provide an accurate PTR. This is illustrated by showing that a 0.1% decrease in the value for specificities for trisomies 21, 18, and 13 can reduce the PTR from 79-64% for trisomy 21, 39-27% for trisomy 18, and 21-13% for trisomy 13, respectively. Use of the calculators assumes that sensitivity and specificity are constant for all women receiving the test but there is evidence that discordancy between screening results and true fetal karyotype is more common for older women. Use of an appropriate value for the prior risk is also important and for rare disorders there is considerable uncertainty regarding prevalence. For example, commonly used rates for trisomy 13, monosomy-X, triploidy, and 22q11.2 deletion syndrome can vary by >4-fold and this can translate into large differences in PTR. When screening for rare disorders, it may not be possible to provide a reliable PTR if there is uncertainty over the false-positive rate and/or prevalence. These limitations, per se, do not negate the value of screening for rare conditions. However, counselors need to carefully weigh the validity of PTR before presenting them to patients. Additional epidemiologic and NIPS outcome data are needed. PMID:26772793

  8. The ICRP opinion of the calculation of doses and risks associated with exposures to tritium

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    As the management of exposures to tritium, just like for other radionuclides, relies on the effective dose calculation, it also requires the application of coefficients to take the variety of radiations and the sensitivity of the different irradiated tissues into account. The authors discuss the determination and the use of the weighting factor (Wr) which reflects the relative biological effectiveness (RBE) of different types of radiation. They outline that some researchers asked for a review of this factor, and that the RBE is related to several parameters. All this and other issues entail uncertainties. The authors then give the opinion of the ICRP on this issue and notably for the assessment of the individual risk of cancer after exposure to tritium

  9. The risk of a major nuclear accident: calculation and perception of probabilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The accident at Fukushima Daiichi, Japan, occurred on 11 March 2011. This nuclear disaster, the third on such a scale, left a lasting mark in the minds of hundreds of millions of people. Much as Three Mile Island or Chernobyl, yet another place will be permanently associated with a nuclear power plant which went out of control. Fukushima Daiichi revived the issue of the hazards of civil nuclear power, stirring up all the associated passion and emotion. The whole of this paper is devoted to the risk of a major nuclear accident. By this we mean a failure initiating core meltdown, a situation in which the fuel rods melt and mix with the metal in their cladding. Such accidents are classified as at least level 5 on the International Nuclear Event Scale. The Three Mile Island accident, which occurred in 1979 in the United States, reached this level of severity. The explosion of reactor 4 at the Chernobyl plant in Ukraine in 1986 and the recent accident in Japan were classified as class 7, the highest grade on this logarithmic scale. The main difference between the top two levels and level 5 relates to a significant or major release of radioactive material to the environment. In the event of a level-5 accident, damage is restricted to the inside of the plant, whereas, in the case of level-7 accidents, huge areas of land, above or below the surface, and/or sea may be contaminated. Before the meltdown of reactors 1, 2 and 3 at Fukushima Daiichi, eight major accidents affecting nuclear power plants had occurred worldwide. This is a high figure compared with the one calculated by the experts. Observations in the field do not appear to fit the results of the probabilistic models of nuclear accidents produced since the 1970's. Oddly enough the number of major accidents is closer to the risk as perceived by the general public. In general we tend to overestimate any risk relating to rare, fearsome accidents. What are we to make of this divergence? How are we to reconcile

  10. Cognitive Predictors of Calculations and Number Line Estimation with Whole Numbers and Fractions among At-Risk Students

    OpenAIRE

    Namkung, Jessica M.; Fuchs, Lynn S.

    2015-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to examine the cognitive predictors of calculations and number line estimation with whole numbers and fractions. At-risk 4th-grade students (N = 139) were assessed on 7 domain-general abilities (i.e., working memory, processing speed, concept formation, language, attentive behavior, and nonverbal reasoning) and incoming calculation skill at the start of 4th grade. Then, they were assessed on whole-number and fraction calculation and number line estimation measure...

  11. Look Before You Leap: What Are the Obstacles to Risk Calculation in the Equestrian Sport of Eventing?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Denzil O’Brien

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available All horse-riding is risky. In competitive horse sports, eventing is considered the riskiest, and is often characterised as very dangerous. But based on what data? There has been considerable research on the risks and unwanted outcomes of horse-riding in general, and on particular subsets of horse-riding such as eventing. However, there can be problems in accessing accurate, comprehensive and comparable data on such outcomes, and in using different calculation methods which cannot compare like with like. This paper critically examines a number of risk calculation methods used in estimating risk for riders in eventing, including one method which calculates risk based on hours spent in the activity and in one case concludes that eventing is more dangerous than motorcycle racing. This paper argues that the primary locus of risk for both riders and horses is the jump itself, and the action of the horse jumping. The paper proposes that risk calculation in eventing should therefore concentrate primarily on this locus, and suggests that eventing is unlikely to be more dangerous than motorcycle racing. The paper proposes avenues for further research to reduce the likelihood and consequences of rider and horse falls at jumps.

  12. Look Before You Leap: What Are the Obstacles to Risk Calculation in the Equestrian Sport of Eventing?

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Brien, Denzil

    2016-01-01

    All horse-riding is risky. In competitive horse sports, eventing is considered the riskiest, and is often characterised as very dangerous. But based on what data? There has been considerable research on the risks and unwanted outcomes of horse-riding in general, and on particular subsets of horse-riding such as eventing. However, there can be problems in accessing accurate, comprehensive and comparable data on such outcomes, and in using different calculation methods which cannot compare like with like. This paper critically examines a number of risk calculation methods used in estimating risk for riders in eventing, including one method which calculates risk based on hours spent in the activity and in one case concludes that eventing is more dangerous than motorcycle racing. This paper argues that the primary locus of risk for both riders and horses is the jump itself, and the action of the horse jumping. The paper proposes that risk calculation in eventing should therefore concentrate primarily on this locus, and suggests that eventing is unlikely to be more dangerous than motorcycle racing. The paper proposes avenues for further research to reduce the likelihood and consequences of rider and horse falls at jumps. PMID:26891334

  13. Establishment of scatter factors for use in shielding calculations and risk assessment for computed tomography facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The specification of shielding for CT facilities in the UK and many other countries has been based on isodose scatter curves supplied by the manufacturers combined with the scanner's mAs workload. Shielding calculations for radiography and fluoroscopy are linked to a dose measurement of radiation incident on the patient called the kerma–area product (KAP), and a related quantity, the dose-length product (DLP), is now employed for assessment of CT patient doses. In this study the link between scatter air kerma and DLP has been investigated for CT scanners from different manufacturers. Scatter air kerma values have been measured and scatter factors established that can be used to estimate air kerma levels within CT scanning rooms. Factors recommended to derive the scatter air kerma at 1 m from the isocentre are 0.36 µGy (mGy cm)−1 for the body and 0.14 µGy (mGy cm)−1 for head scans. The CT scanner gantries only transmit 10% of the scatter air kerma level and this can also be taken into account when designing protection. The factors can be used to predict scatter air kerma levels within a scanner room that might be used in risk assessments relating to personnel whose presence may be required during CT fluoroscopy procedures.

  14. Practical Calculation of Expected and Unexpected Losses in Operational Risk by Simulation Methods

    OpenAIRE

    Enrique, Navarrete

    2006-01-01

    This paper explores the difficulties involved in quantitative measurement of operational risk and proposes simulation methods as a practical solution to obtain the distribution of total losses. It also introduces an example of the estimation of expected and unexpected losses, as well as Value-at-Risk (VaR), arising from operational risk.

  15. Association between perceived lifetime risk of cardiovascular disease and calculated risk in a male population in Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    de Lima Jr MM

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Mário Maciel de Lima Jr,1,2 Glaciane Rocha da Silva,3 Sebastião Salazar Jensem Filho,2 Fabiana Granja3 1Department of Urology, Coronel Mota Hospital, Roraima, 2Cathedral College, 3Biodiversity Research Center, Federal University of Roraima (CBio/UFRR, Roraima, Brazil Aim: Cardiovascular disease is the major cause of morbidity and mortality across the world. Despite health campaigns to improve awareness of cardiovascular risk factors, there has been little improvement in cardiovascular mortality. In this study, we sought to examine the association between cardiovascular risk factors and people’s perception on cardiovascular risk. Methods: This was an epidemiological, cross-sectional, descriptive, prospective study of Masonic men aged >40 years in Boa Vista, Brazil. Participants completed a health survey, which included three questions about perception of their stress level, overall health status, and risk of a heart attack. In addition, demographic and biological data were collected. Results: A total of 101 Masonic men took part in the study; their mean age (± standard ­deviation was 55.35±9.17 years and mean body mass index was 28.77±4.51 kg/m2. Answers to the lifestyle questionnaire suggested an overall healthy lifestyle, including good diet and moderate exercise, although despite this ~80% were classified as overweight or obese. The majority of participants felt that they had a low stress level (66.3%, good overall general health (63.4%, and were at low risk of having a heart attack (71.3%. Masons who were overweight were significantly more likely to perceive themselves to be at risk of a heart attack (P=0.025. Conclusion: Despite over half of participants having a moderate to high risk of cardiovascular disease according to traditional risk factors, less than a third perceived themselves to be at high risk. Public health campaigns need to better communicate the significance of traditional cardiovascular risk in order to improve

  16. Cognitive Predictors of Calculations and Number Line Estimation with Whole Numbers and Fractions among At-Risk Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Namkung, Jessica M.; Fuchs, Lynn S.

    2016-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to examine the cognitive predictors of calculations and number line estimation with whole numbers and fractions. At-risk 4th-grade students (N = 139) were assessed on 6 domain-general abilities (i.e., working memory, processing speed, concept formation, language, attentive behavior, and nonverbal reasoning) and…

  17. Modified Treatment Approach Using Cardiovascular Disease Risk Calculator for Primary Prevention

    OpenAIRE

    Gupta, Himanshu; Schiros, Chun G; Denney, Thomas S.

    2014-01-01

    Background The recent guidelines for preventing atherosclerotic cardiovascular events are an important advancement. For primary prevention, statins are recommended if the ten-year risk is ≥ 5% (consideration for therapy) or ≥ 7.5% (definitive treatment unless contraindication after discussion). We rationalized that a significant cohort with ten-year risk below the treatment thresholds would predictably surpass them within the recommended 4–6 year window for reassessing the ten-year risk. As a...

  18. Accident consequence calculations and risk assessments for pressurized light water reactors with the computer code UFOMOD/B3

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    With respect to the application of the accident consequence model of the German Risk Study (GRS) for light water reactors to risk assessments of other reactor types (high temperature reactor HTR-1160, fast breeder reactor SNR-300), the improved version UFOMOD/B3 was developed. The modifications mainly concern the deposition parameters, the resuspension process, the ingestion model and the dose factors. To make results comparable, recalculations for pressurized light water reactors were performed with the release categories of the GRS. The results show in contrast to the findings of the GRS a significant reduction of the acute fatality risk by a factor of 3.6. This essentially results from the smaller deposition parameters. The latent fatality risk was calculated nearly unchanged. (orig.)

  19. Risk-centered calculation of network charges in the power transmission sector; Risikoorientierte Kalkulation von Netznutzungsentgelten in der Stromverteilungswirtschaft

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Maennel, W. [Friedrich-Alexander-Univ., Erlangen-Nuernberg (Germany). Betriebswirtschafliches Inst.

    2004-04-01

    Utilities insist that contrary to the opinions of the Federal Cartel Office and network users, distribution network operation is a high-risk enterprise. The contribution starts by listing typical relevant risks in power distribution and then proceeds to discussing risk factors one by one. Empirical findings generated with the Capital Asset Pricing Mode (CAPM) prove that the conservative approach for calculating the risk-based surcharges laid down in the VV II plus agreement is appropriate. (orig./CB) [German] Entgegen der Auffassung von Bundeskartellbehoerden und Netznutzern ist das stark anlagenintensive Netzgeschaeft mit bedeutsamen Unternehmerrisiken behaftet, deren Ueberwaelzung nur begrenzt moeglich ist. Ausgehend von generell bedeutsamen und typischen Unternehmerrisiken im Stromverteilungssektor beschaeftigt sich der Artikel mit den direkt auf die Eigenkapitalverzinsung einwirkenden Risikofaktoren. Mit dem Capital Asset Pricing Mode (CAPM) genierierte empirische Befunde bestaetigen die konservativen Wagniszuschlaege in der VV II plus. (orig.)

  20. First-trimester risk calculation for trisomy 13, 18, and 21: comparison of the screening efficiency between 2 locally developed programs and commercial software

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Steen; Momsen, Günther; Sundberg, Karin; Friis-Hansen, Lennart; Jørgensen, Finn Stener

    2011-01-01

    maternal plasma from unaffected pregnancies. Means and SDs of these parameters in unaffected and affected pregnancies are used in the risk calculation program. Unfortunately, our commercial program for risk calculation (Astraia) did not allow use of local medians. We developed 2 alternative risk...... calculation programs to assess whether the screening efficacies for T13, T18, and T21 could be improved by using our locally estimated medians....

  1. Uncertainty and sensitivity of flood risk calculations for a dike ring in the south of the Netherlands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Moel, Hans; Bouwer, Laurens M; Aerts, Jeroen C J H

    2014-03-01

    A central tool in risk management is the exceedance-probability loss (EPL) curve, which denotes the probabilities of damages being exceeded or equalled. These curves are used for a number of purposes, including the calculation of the expected annual damage (EAD), a common indicator for risk. The model calculations that are used to create such a curve contain uncertainties that accumulate in the end result. As a result, EPL curves and EAD calculations are also surrounded by uncertainties. Knowledge of the magnitude and source of these uncertainties helps to improve assessments and leads to better informed decisions. This study, therefore, performs uncertainty and sensitivity analyses for a dike-ring area in the Netherlands, on the south bank of the river Meuse. In this study, a Monte Carlo framework is used that combines hydraulic boundary conditions, a breach growth model, an inundation model, and a damage model. It encompasses the modelling of thirteen potential breach locations and uncertainties related to probability, duration of the flood wave, height of the flood wave, erodibility of the embankment, damage curves, and the value of assets at risk. The assessment includes uncertainty and sensitivity of risk estimates for each individual location, as well as the dike-ring area as a whole. The results show that for the dike ring in question, EAD estimates exhibit a 90% percentile range from about 8 times lower than the median, up to 4.5 times higher than the median. This level of uncertainty can mainly be attributed to uncertainty in depth-damage curves, uncertainty in the probability of a flood event and the duration of the flood wave. There are considerable differences between breach locations, both in the magnitude of the uncertainty, and in its source. This indicates that local characteristics have a considerable impact on uncertainty and sensitivity of flood damage and risk calculations. PMID:24370697

  2. Mathematical child phantom for the calculation of dose to the organs at risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In order to calculate the doses received by the organs of 530 children treated by radiation for cancer between 1945 and 1969 at the G. Roussy Institute, we have developed a computer program for organ location calculation. To calculate the location of each child's organs of interest at the time of the treatment, only two parameters are necessary; sex and height or sex and age when the height at the time of the treatment is unknown. The algorithm is based on the metric studies of growth known as auxology. Each organ is located by one point representing its center. The model has been checked on 100 healthy children

  3. Mathematical child phantom for the calculation of dose to the organs at risk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Francois, P.; Beurtheret, C.; Dutreix, A.; De Vathaire, F.

    1988-05-01

    In order to calculate the doses received by the organs of 530 children treated by radiation for cancer between 1945 and 1969 at the G. Roussy Institute, we have developed a computer program for organ location calculation. To calculate the location of each child's organs of interest at the time of the treatment, only two parameters are necessary; sex and height or sex and age when the height at the time of the treatment is unknown. The algorithm is based on the metric studies of growth known as auxology. Each organ is located by one point representing its center. The model has been checked on 100 healthy children.

  4. 12 CFR 702.106 - Standard calculation of risk-based net worth requirement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... AFFECTING CREDIT UNIONS PROMPT CORRECTIVE ACTION Net Worth Classification § 702.106 Standard calculation of...) Allowance. Negative one hundred percent (−100%) of the balance of the Allowance for Loan and Lease...

  5. Estimation of Real-Time Flood Risk on Roads Based on Rainfall Calculated by the Revised Method of Missing Rainfall

    OpenAIRE

    Eunmi Kim; Ilkyeun Ra; Kyung Hyun Rhee; Chang Soo Kim

    2014-01-01

    Recently, flood damage by frequent localized downpours in cities is on the increase on account of abnormal climate phenomena and the growth of impermeable areas due to urbanization. This study suggests a method to estimate real-time flood risk on roads for drivers based on the accumulated rainfall. The amount of rainfall of a road link, which is an intensive type, is calculated by using the revised method of missing rainfall in meteorology, because the rainfall is not measured on roads direct...

  6. Data Mining Activity for Bone Discipline: Calculating a Factor of Risk for Hip Fracture in Long-Duration Astronauts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ellman, R.; Sibonga, J. D.; Bouxsein, M. L.

    2010-01-01

    The factor-of-risk (Phi), defined as the ratio of applied load to bone strength, is a biomechanical approach to hip fracture risk assessment that may be used to identify subjects who are at increased risk for fracture. The purpose of this project was to calculate the factor of risk in long duration astronauts after return from a mission on the International Space Station (ISS), which is typically 6 months in duration. The load applied to the hip was calculated for a sideways fall from standing height based on the individual height and weight of the astronauts. The soft tissue thickness overlying the greater trochanter was measured from the DXA whole body scans and used to estimate attenuation of the impact force provided by soft tissues overlying the hip. Femoral strength was estimated from femoral areal bone mineral density (aBMD) measurements by dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry (DXA), which were performed between 5-32 days of landing. All long-duration NASA astronauts from Expedition 1 to 18 were included in this study, where repeat flyers were treated as separate subjects. Male astronauts (n=20) had a significantly higher factor of risk for hip fracture Phi than females (n=5), with preflight values of 0.83+/-0.11 and 0.36+/-0.07, respectively, but there was no significant difference between preflight and postflight Phi (Figure 1). Femoral aBMD measurements were not found to be significantly different between men and women. Three men and no women exceeded the theoretical fracture threshold of Phi=1 immediately postflight, indicating that they would likely suffer a hip fracture if they were to experience a sideways fall with impact to the greater trochanter. These data suggest that male astronauts may be at greater risk for hip fracture than women following spaceflight, primarily due to relatively less soft tissue thickness and subsequently greater impact force.

  7. Risk calculations for energy conservation technologies: the likelihood of realizing design-phase expectations in new construction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Greden, Lara; Vaidya, Prasad; Baker, Chris; Eijadi, David; McDougall, Tom [The Weidt Group (United States)

    2007-07-01

    The risk that a technology will not be implemented or operated as designed is a significant barrier that impedes owners from adopting new energy-conserving building technologies. This results in a feedback loop that encourages decision makers to minimize risk by sticking with the status quo, regardless of the environmental impact. Different technology categories have different levels and types of risks associated with them.This study assigns levels of risk to technologies by tracing a set of envelope systems, lighting designs, lighting controls, HVAC systems, and HVAC controls in a data set of 38 buildings from the design phase through the initial implementation phase. The likelihood that a technology gets implemented and works as expected is assessed, and risk factors for the various technologies are calculated. Explanations for the levels of risk are supported by interviews with third-party reviewers who serve to assist design teams and owners through the construction phase. Results show that daylighting technologies, including dimming daylighting controls, have the highest risk of not being implemented - when otherwise chosen at the selection phase - while roof insulation and lighting designs are most likely to be fully and correctly implemented. Analysis comparing the risk to the energy conservation opportunity indicates the need for prioritization and support during the design and construction phases to realize expected levels of energy conservation. Overall, the interviewees said the most common reasons for lower than expected energy savings are that energy conservation measures were cut-out during value engineering or cut-out due to later decisions that a technology was functionally risky. This research supports large scale investments in energy conservation technologies for buildings through rebate programs, code improvements, and design guides created by large owners. It identifies technologies that need a higher degree of building management effort and

  8. Comparison of the historic recycling risk for BSE in three European Countries by calculating RO.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schwermer, H.; Koeijer, de A.A.; Brülisauer, F.; Heim, D.

    2007-01-01

    Adeterministic model of BSE transmission is used to calculate the R0 values for specific years of the BSE epidemics in the United Kingdom (UK), the Netherlands (NL), and Switzerland (CH). In all three countries, theR0 values decreased below 1 after the introduction of a ban on feeding meat and bone

  9. Development of free statistical software enabling researchers to calculate confidence levels, clinical significance curves and risk-benefit contours

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Confidence levels, clinical significance curves, and risk-benefit contours are tools improving analysis of clinical studies and minimizing misinterpretation of published results, however no software has been available for their calculation. The objective was to develop software to help clinicians utilize these tools. Excel 2000 spreadsheets were designed using only built-in functions, without macros. The workbook was protected and encrypted so that users can modify only input cells. The workbook has 4 spreadsheets for use in studies comparing two patient groups. Sheet 1 comprises instructions and graphic examples for use. Sheet 2 allows the user to input the main study results (e.g. survival rates) into a 2-by-2 table. Confidence intervals (95%), p-value and the confidence level for Treatment A being better than Treatment B are automatically generated. An additional input cell allows the user to determine the confidence associated with a specified level of benefit. For example if the user wishes to know the confidence that Treatment A is at least 10% better than B, 10% is entered. Sheet 2 automatically displays clinical significance curves, graphically illustrating confidence levels for all possible benefits of one treatment over the other. Sheet 3 allows input of toxicity data, and calculates the confidence that one treatment is more toxic than the other. It also determines the confidence that the relative toxicity of the most effective arm does not exceed user-defined tolerability. Sheet 4 automatically calculates risk-benefit contours, displaying the confidence associated with a specified scenario of minimum benefit and maximum risk of one treatment arm over the other. The spreadsheet is freely downloadable at www.ontumor.com/professional/statistics.htm A simple, self-explanatory, freely available spreadsheet calculator was developed using Excel 2000. The incorporated decision-making tools can be used for data analysis and improve the reporting of results of any

  10. Risk Management for Complex Calculations: EuSpRIG Best Practices in Hybrid Applications

    CERN Document Server

    Cernauskas, Deborah; VanVliet, Ben

    2008-01-01

    As the need for advanced, interactive mathematical models has increased, user/programmers are increasingly choosing the MatLab scripting language over spreadsheets. However, applications developed in these tools have high error risk, and no best practices exist. We recommend that advanced, highly mathematical applications incorporate these tools with spreadsheets into hybrid applications, where developers can apply EuSpRIG best practices. Development of hybrid applications can reduce the potential for errors, shorten development time, and enable higher level operations. We believe that hybrid applications are the future and over the course of this paper, we apply and extend spreadsheet best practices to reduce or prevent risks in hybrid Excel/MatLab applications.

  11. Transport calculations and accelerator experiments needed for radiation risk assessment in space

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The major uncertainties on space radiation risk estimates in humans are associated to the poor knowledge of the biological effects of low and high LET radiation, with a smaller contribution coming from the characterization of space radiation field and its primary interactions with the shielding and the human body. However, to decrease the uncertainties on the biological effects and increase the accuracy of the risk coefficients for charged particles radiation, the initial charged-particle spectra from the Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCRs) and the Solar Particle Events (SPEs), and the radiation transport through the shielding material of the space vehicle and the human body, must be belter estimated. Since it is practically impossible to measure all primary and secondary particles from all possible position-projectile-target-energy combinations needed for a correct risk assessment in space, accurate particle and heavy ion transport codes must be used. These codes are also needed when estimating the risk for radiation induced failures in advanced microelectronics, such as single-event effects, etc., and the efficiency of different shielding materials. It is therefore important that the models and transport codes will be carefully benchmarked and validated to make sure they fulfill preset accuracy criteria, e.g. to be able to predict particle fluence, dose and energy distributions within a certain accuracy. When validating the accuracy of the transport codes, both space and ground based accelerator experiments are needed. The efficiency of passive shielding and protection of electronic devices should also be tested in accelerator experiments and compared to simulations using different transport codes. In this paper different multipurpose particle and heavy ion transport codes will be presented, different concepts of shielding and protection discussed, as well as future accelerator experiments needed for testing and validating codes and shielding materials. (orig.)

  12. Technology-based risk calculation methodology in coastal container liner shipping

    OpenAIRE

    Bukša, Juraj; Frančić, Vlado; Bukša, Tomislav

    2015-01-01

    The methodology of business and technology risk evaluation and management in shipping is based on three key factors: the voyage duration, the detected spots of technological differences and the spots of consequence costs. The lowest costs of a vessel on a voyage or on a segment of a voyage are considered to be the optimal costs of a certain vessel on the voyage or on the segment of the voyage. Each cost that arises on a voyage or on a segment of a voyage which is higher than the lowest rec...

  13. RISKIND: A computer program for calculating radiological consequences and health risks from transportation of spent nuclear fuel

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yuan, Y.C. [Square Y, Orchard Park, NY (United States); Chen, S.Y.; LePoire, D.J. [Argonne National Lab., IL (United States). Environmental Assessment and Information Sciences Div.; Rothman, R. [USDOE Idaho Field Office, Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    1993-02-01

    This report presents the technical details of RISIUND, a computer code designed to estimate potential radiological consequences and health risks to individuals and the collective population from exposures associated with the transportation of spent nuclear fuel. RISKIND is a user-friendly, semiinteractive program that can be run on an IBM or equivalent personal computer. The program language is FORTRAN-77. Several models are included in RISKIND that have been tailored to calculate the exposure to individuals under various incident-free and accident conditions. The incidentfree models assess exposures from both gamma and neutron radiation and can account for different cask designs. The accident models include accidental release, atmospheric transport, and the environmental pathways of radionuclides from spent fuels; these models also assess health risks to individuals and the collective population. The models are supported by databases that are specific to spent nuclear fuels and include a radionudide inventory and dose conversion factors.

  14. RISKIND: A computer program for calculating radiological consequences and health risks from transportation of spent nuclear fuel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This report presents the technical details of RISIUND, a computer code designed to estimate potential radiological consequences and health risks to individuals and the collective population from exposures associated with the transportation of spent nuclear fuel. RISKIND is a user-friendly, semiinteractive program that can be run on an IBM or equivalent personal computer. The program language is FORTRAN-77. Several models are included in RISKIND that have been tailored to calculate the exposure to individuals under various incident-free and accident conditions. The incidentfree models assess exposures from both gamma and neutron radiation and can account for different cask designs. The accident models include accidental release, atmospheric transport, and the environmental pathways of radionuclides from spent fuels; these models also assess health risks to individuals and the collective population. The models are supported by databases that are specific to spent nuclear fuels and include a radionudide inventory and dose conversion factors

  15. RISKIND: A computer program for calculating radiological consequences and health risks from transportation of spent nuclear fuel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This report presents the technical details of RISKIND, a computer code designed to estimate potential radiological consequences and health risks to individuals and the collective population from exposures associated with the transportation of spent nuclear fuel. RISKIND is a user-friendly, interactive program that can be run on an IBM or equivalent personal computer under the Windows trademark environment. Several models are included in RISKIND that have been tailored to calculate the exposure to individuals under various incident-free and accident conditions. The incident-free models assess exposures from both gamma and neutron radiation and can account for different cask designs. The accident models include accidental release, atmospheric transport, and the environmental pathways of radionuclides from spent fuels; these models also assess health risks to individuals and the collective population. The models are supported by databases that are specific to spent nuclear fuels and include a radionuclide inventory and dose conversion factors. In addition, the flexibility of the models allows them to be used for assessing any accidental release involving radioactive materials. The RISKIND code allows for user-specified accident scenarios as well as receptor locations under various exposure conditions, thereby facilitating the estimation of radiological consequences and health risks for individuals. Median (50% probability) and typical worst-case (less than 5% probability of being exceeded) doses and health consequences from potential accidental releases can be calculated by constructing a cumulative dose/probability distribution curve for a complete matrix of site joint-wind-frequency data. These consequence results, together with the estimated probability of the entire spectrum of potential accidents, form a comprehensive, probabilistic risk assessment of a spent nuclear fuel transportation accident

  16. RISKIND: A computer program for calculating radiological consequences and health risks from transportation of spent nuclear fuel

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yuan, Y.C. [Square Y Consultants, Orchard Park, NY (US); Chen, S.Y.; Biwer, B.M.; LePoire, D.J. [Argonne National Lab., IL (US)

    1995-11-01

    This report presents the technical details of RISKIND, a computer code designed to estimate potential radiological consequences and health risks to individuals and the collective population from exposures associated with the transportation of spent nuclear fuel. RISKIND is a user-friendly, interactive program that can be run on an IBM or equivalent personal computer under the Windows{trademark} environment. Several models are included in RISKIND that have been tailored to calculate the exposure to individuals under various incident-free and accident conditions. The incident-free models assess exposures from both gamma and neutron radiation and can account for different cask designs. The accident models include accidental release, atmospheric transport, and the environmental pathways of radionuclides from spent fuels; these models also assess health risks to individuals and the collective population. The models are supported by databases that are specific to spent nuclear fuels and include a radionuclide inventory and dose conversion factors. In addition, the flexibility of the models allows them to be used for assessing any accidental release involving radioactive materials. The RISKIND code allows for user-specified accident scenarios as well as receptor locations under various exposure conditions, thereby facilitating the estimation of radiological consequences and health risks for individuals. Median (50% probability) and typical worst-case (less than 5% probability of being exceeded) doses and health consequences from potential accidental releases can be calculated by constructing a cumulative dose/probability distribution curve for a complete matrix of site joint-wind-frequency data. These consequence results, together with the estimated probability of the entire spectrum of potential accidents, form a comprehensive, probabilistic risk assessment of a spent nuclear fuel transportation accident.

  17. Lessons From The 2008 Global Financial Crisis: Imprudent Risk Management And Miss Calculated Regulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Long H. Vo

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Of the major shortcomings exposed during the 2008 global financial crisis, there are two aspects that have attracted much interest among academics: the under-appreciation of the complexity of new operations at large financial institutions and the inadequate oversight of basic prudential supervision by regulatory agencies. To provide a brief focus on elements of these aspects, this paper presents corresponding case studies involve the fall of two of the largest finance companies ever existed: American International Group and Lehman Brothers Holdings. A survey of related historical arguments shows that while AIG fails due largely to its extended involvement in the new Credit Default Swap contracts that enable gambling on defaults, the collapse of Lehman Brothers’ may be attributable to the misguiding capital adequacy regulations implied by the Basel II Accord. Though perhaps overly simplified, the conclusions from these two cases offer insights into the fundamental weaknesses of some primary contemporary risk management practices and regulations.

  18. GRiP - A flexible approach for calculating risk as a function of consequence, vulnerability, and threat.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Whitfield, R. G.; Buehring, W. A.; Bassett, G. W. (Decision and Information Sciences)

    2011-04-08

    Get a GRiP (Gravitational Risk Procedure) on risk by using an approach inspired by the physics of gravitational forces between body masses! In April 2010, U.S. Department of Homeland Security Special Events staff (Protective Security Advisors [PSAs]) expressed concern about how to calculate risk given measures of consequence, vulnerability, and threat. The PSAs believed that it is not 'right' to assign zero risk, as a multiplicative formula would imply, to cases in which the threat is reported to be extremely small, and perhaps could even be assigned a value of zero, but for which consequences and vulnerability are potentially high. They needed a different way to aggregate the components into an overall measure of risk. To address these concerns, GRiP was proposed and developed. The inspiration for GRiP is Sir Isaac Newton's Universal Law of Gravitation: the attractive force between two bodies is directly proportional to the product of their masses and inversely proportional to the squares of the distance between them. The total force on one body is the sum of the forces from 'other bodies' that influence that body. In the case of risk, the 'other bodies' are the components of risk (R): consequence, vulnerability, and threat (which we denote as C, V, and T, respectively). GRiP treats risk as if it were a body within a cube. Each vertex (corner) of the cube represents one of the eight combinations of minimum and maximum 'values' for consequence, vulnerability, and threat. The risk at each of the vertices is a variable that can be set. Naturally, maximum risk occurs when consequence, vulnerability, and threat are at their maximum values; minimum risk occurs when they are at their minimum values. Analogous to gravitational forces among body masses, the GRiP formula for risk states that the risk at any interior point of the box depends on the squares of the distances from that point to each of the eight vertices. The risk

  19. When the Details Matter – Sensitivities in PRA Calculations That Could Affect Risk-Informed Decision-Making

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dana L. Kelly; Nathan O. Siu

    2010-06-01

    As the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) continues its efforts to increase its use of risk information in decision making, the detailed, quantitative results of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) calculations are coming under increased scrutiny. Where once analysts and users were not overly concerned with figure of merit variations that were less than an order of magnitude, now factors of two or even less can spark heated debate regarding modeling approaches and assumptions. The philosophical and policy-related aspects of this situation are well-recognized by the PRA community. On the other hand, the technical implications for PRA methods and modeling have not been as widely discussed. This paper illustrates the potential numerical effects of choices as to the details of models and methods for parameter estimation with three examples: 1) the selection of the time period data for parameter estimation, and issues related to component boundary and failure mode definitions; 2) the selection of alternative diffuse prior distributions, including the constrained noninformative prior distribution, in Bayesian parameter estimation; and 3) the impact of uncertainty in calculations for recovery of offsite power.

  20. KOHBRA BRCA risk calculator (KOHCal): a model for predicting BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutations in Korean breast cancer patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kang, Eunyoung; Park, Sue K; Lee, Jong Won; Kim, Zisun; Noh, Woo-Chul; Jung, Yongsik; Yang, Jung-Hyun; Jung, Sung Hoo; Kim, Sung-Won

    2016-05-01

    The widely used Western BRCA mutation prediction models underestimated the risk of having a BRCA mutation in Korean breast cancer patients. This study aimed to identify predictive factors for BRCA1/2 mutations and to develop a Korean BRCA risk calculator. The model was constructed by logistic regression model, and it was based on the Korean Hereditary Breast Cancer study, in which 1669 female patients were enrolled between May 2007 and December 2010. A separate data set of 402 patients, who were enrolled from Jan 2011 to August 2012, was used to test the performance of our model. In total, 264 (15.8%) and 67 (16.7%) BRCA mutation carriers were identified in the model and validation set, respectively. Multivariate analysis showed that age at breast cancer diagnosis, bilateral breast cancer, triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) and the number of relatives with breast or ovarian cancer within third-degree relatives were independent predictors of the BRCA mutation among familial breast cancer patients. An age cancer, both breast and ovarian cancer and TNBC remained significant predictors in non-familial breast cancer cases. Our model was developed based on logistic regression models. The validation results showed no differences between the observed and expected carrier probabilities. This model will be a useful tool for providing genetic risk assessments in Korean populations. PMID:26763880

  1. Can Western Based Online Prostate Cancer Risk Calculators Be Used to Predict Prostate Cancer after Prostate Biopsy for the Korean Population?

    OpenAIRE

    Lee, Dong Hoon; Jung, Ha Bum; Park, Jae Won; Kim, Kyu Hyun; Kim, Jongchan; Lee, Seung Hwan; Chung, Byung Ha

    2013-01-01

    Purpose To access the predictive value of the European Randomized Screening of Prostate Cancer Risk Calculator (ERSPC-RC) and the Prostate Cancer Prevention Trial Risk Calculator (PCPT-RC) in the Korean population. Materials and Methods We retrospectively analyzed the data of 517 men who underwent transrectal ultrasound guided prostate biopsy between January 2008 and November 2010. Simple and multiple logistic regression analysis were performed to compare the result of prostate biopsy. Area u...

  2. Estimation of Real-Time Flood Risk on Roads Based on Rainfall Calculated by the Revised Method of Missing Rainfall

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eunmi Kim

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Recently, flood damage by frequent localized downpours in cities is on the increase on account of abnormal climate phenomena and the growth of impermeable areas due to urbanization. This study suggests a method to estimate real-time flood risk on roads for drivers based on the accumulated rainfall. The amount of rainfall of a road link, which is an intensive type, is calculated by using the revised method of missing rainfall in meteorology, because the rainfall is not measured on roads directly. To process in real time with a computer, we use the inverse distance weighting (IDW method, which is a suitable method in the computing system and is commonly used in relation to precipitation due to its simplicity. With real-time accumulated rainfall, the flooding history, rainfall range causing flooding from previous rainfall information and frequency probability of precipitation are used to determine the flood risk on roads. The result of simulation using the suggested algorithms shows the high concordance rate between actual flooded areas in the past and flooded areas derived from the simulation for the research region in Busan, Korea.

  3. Mice take calculated risks

    OpenAIRE

    Kheifets, Aaron; Gallistel, C.R

    2012-01-01

    Animals successfully navigate the world despite having only incomplete information about behaviorally important contingencies. It is an open question to what degree this behavior is driven by estimates of stochastic parameters (brain-constructed models of the experienced world) and to what degree it is directed by reinforcement-driven processes that optimize behavior in the limit without estimating stochastic parameters (model-free adaptation processes, such as associative learning). We find ...

  4. Coefficients calculations of conversion of cancer risk for occupational exposure using Monte Carlo simulations in cardiac procedures of interventionist radiology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cardiac procedures are among the most common procedures in interventional radiology (IR), and can lead to high medical and occupational exposures, as in most cases are procedures complex and long lasting. In this work, conversion coefficients (CC) for the risk of cancer, normalized by kerma area product (KAP) to the patient, cardiologist and nurse were calculated using Monte Carlo simulation. The patient and the cardiologist were represented by anthropomorphic simulators MESH, and the nurse by anthropomorphic phantom FASH. Simulators were incorporated into the code of Monte Carlo MCNPX. Two scenarios were created: in the first (1), lead curtain and protective equipment suspended were not included, and in the second (2) these devices were inserted. The radiographic parameters employed in Monte Carlo simulations were: tube voltage of 60 kVp and 120 kVp; filtration of the beam and 3,5 mmAl beam area of 10 x 10 cm2. The average values of CCs to eight projections (in 10-4 / Gy.cm2 were 1,2 for the patient, 2,6E-03 (scenario 1) and 4,9E-04 (scenario 2) for cardiologist and 5,2E-04 (scenario 1) and 4,0E-04 (Scenario 2) to the nurse. The results show a significant reduction in CCs for professionals, when the lead curtain and protective equipment suspended are employed. The evaluation method used in this work can provide important information on the risk of cancer patient and professional, and thus improve the protection of workers in cardiac procedures of RI

  5. Calculation of Expected Shortfall for Measuring Risk and Its Application%评估风险的期望损失计算及应用研究

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    YAN Chun-ning; YU Peng; HUANG Yang-xin

    2005-01-01

    Expected shortfall(ES) is a new method to measure market risk. In this paper, an example was presented to illustrate that the ES is coherent but value-at-risk(VaR) is not coherent. Three formulas for calculating the ES based on historical simulation method,normal method and GARCH method were derived. Further, a numerical experiment on optimizing portfolio using ES was provided.

  6. The Relationship between 10-Year Cardiovascular Risk Calculated Using the Pooled Cohort Equation and the Severity of Non-Alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease

    OpenAIRE

    Lee, Jeong In; Kim, Min Chul; Moon, Byung Sub; Song, Young Seok; Han, Eun Na; Lee, Hyo Sun; Son, Yoonjeong; Kim, Jihyun; Han, Eun Jin; Park, Hye-jeong; Park, Se Eun; Park, Cheol-Young; Lee, Won-Young; Oh, Ki-Won; Park, Sung-Woo

    2016-01-01

    Background We investigated the association between the severity of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and the estimated 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) calculated by Pooled Cohort Equation (PCE) and Framingham risk score (FRS). Methods A total of 15,913 participants (mean age, 46.3 years) in a health screening program were selected for analysis. The presence and severity of fatty liver was assessed by abdominal ultrasonogram. Subjects who drank alcohol more than three time...

  7. First-trimester risk calculation for trisomy 13, 18, and 21: comparison of the screening efficiency between 2 locally developed programs and commercial software

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Steen; Momsen, Günther; Sundberg, Karin; Friis-Hansen, Lennart; Jørgensen, Finn Stener

    2011-01-01

    Reliable individual risk calculation for trisomy (T) 13, 18, and 21 in first-trimester screening depends on good estimates of the medians for fetal nuchal translucency thickness (NT), free ß-subunit of human chorionic gonadotropin (hCGß), and pregnancy-associated plasma protein-A (PAPP-A) in...... calculation programs to assess whether the screening efficacies for T13, T18, and T21 could be improved by using our locally estimated medians....

  8. External validation of the Prostate Cancer Prevention Trial and the European Randomized Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer risk calculators in a Chinese cohort

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Yao Zhu; Ding-Wei Ye; Jin-You Wang; Yi-Jun Shen; Bo Dai; Chun-Guang Ma; Wen-Jun Xiao; Guo-Wen Lin; Xu-Dong Yao; Shi-Lin Zhang

    2012-01-01

    Several prediction models have been developed to estimate the outcomes of prostate biopsies.Most of these teels were designed for use with Western populations and have not been validated across different ethnic groups.Therefore,we evaluated the predictive value of the Prostate Cancer Prevention Trial (PCPT) and the European Randomized Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer (ERSPC) risk calculators in a Chinese cohort.Clinicopathological information was obtained from 495 Chinese men who had undergone extended prostate biopsies between January 2009 and March 2011.The estimated probabilities of prostate cancer and high-grade disease (Gleason >6) were calculated using the PCPT and ERSPC risk calculators.Overall measures,discrimination,calibration and clinical usefulness were assessed for the model evaluation.Of these patients,28.7% were diagnosed with prostate cancer and 19.4% had high-grade disease.Compared to the PCPT model and the prostate-specific antigen (PSA) threshold of 4 ng ml-1,the ERSPC risk calculator exhibited better discriminative ability for predicting positive biopsies and high-grade disease (the area under the curve was 0.831 and 0.852,respectively,P<0.01 for both).Decision curve analysis also suggested the favourable clinical utility of the ERSPC calculator in the validation dataset.Both prediction models demonstrated miscalibration:the risk of prostate cancer and high-grade disease was overestimated by approximately 20% for a wide range of predicted probabilities.In conclusion,the ERSPC risk calculator outperformed both the PCPT model and the PSA threshold of 4 ng ml-1 in predicting prostate cancer and high-grade disease in Chinese patients.However,the prediction tools derived from Western men significantly overestimated the probability of prostate cancer and high-grade disease compared to the outcomes of biopsies in a Chinese cohort.

  9. Natural and anthropogenic multi-pathway risks associated with naturally occurring uranium mineralization in aquifers: Scoping calculations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    -concentration mechanisms such as caliches or reduction and retention of uranium in peatforming soils which are common in the area. Identification and closure of the relatively few near-field wells responsible for remobilization of environmentally sensitive metals and radionuclides would result in a reduction of future contamination of agricultural soils and crops and consequent reduction of risk. A model of roll-front concentration and remobilization from agricultural pumping may also be considered as a possible analog for the far-field effects of a high-level nuclear waste repository such as the Yucca Mountain Project. The analog includes soil re-concentration as well as possible pre-concentration mechanisms. At present, the far-field model accommodates only advection and diffusion to create a dilute plume intercepted by agricultural wells. This paper describes the scoping calculations used to estimate soil buildup of radionuclides, transfer to crops, and the eventual increased risk to a designated critical group. (author)

  10. 概率安全分析软件RiskA与RiskSpectrum的故障树计算引擎计算对比分析研究%Calculation Engine Comparison of Probabilistic Safety Analysis Program RiskA and RiskSpectrum

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    殷园; 汪进; 陈珊琦; 王芳; 王家群

    2014-01-01

    本文采用完整的秦山第三核电厂PSA模型,分别用中科院 FDS团队自主研发的概率安全分析软件 RiskA的计算引擎 RiskAT与瑞典斯堪伯奥公司开发的 RiskSpectrum 的计算引擎 RSAT 进行了计算,结果表明二者定性和定量计算结果一致,在计算性能方面,RiskA的计算速度快于 RiskSpectrum.%With mockup model of Qinshan Ⅲ, RiskA and RiskSpectrum calculation engines were compared.RiskA was probabilistic safety analysis program independently developed by FDS Team,and Risk Spectrum was another similar program developed by Sweden Scand Power which was widely used.The comparison showed that the calculation results were exactly the same,and the computing speed of RiskA was faster than Risk Spectrum.

  11. Development and pilot feasibility study of a health information technology tool to calculate mortality risk for patients with asymptomatic carotid stenosis: the Carotid Risk Assessment Tool (CARAT)

    OpenAIRE

    Faerber, Adrienne E.; Horvath, Rebecca; Stillman, Carey; O’Connell, Melissa L; Hamilton, Amy L; Newhall, Karina A; Likosky, Donald S.; Goodney, Philip P.

    2015-01-01

    Background Patients with no history of stroke but with stenosis of the carotid arteries can reduce the risk of future stroke with surgery or stenting. At present, a physicians’ ability to recommend optimal treatments based on an individual’s risk profile requires estimating the likelihood that a patient will have a poor peri-operative outcomes and the likelihood that the patient will survive long enough to gain benefit from the procedure. We describe the development of the CArotid Risk Assess...

  12. Insecticide contamination of the River Meuse in August 2007. Risk Assessment on the basis of MAM calculations

    OpenAIRE

    Penailillo B.R.; Morales, Y.(Dipartimento di Fisica dell’Università and Sezione INFN, Turin, Italy); Meijers, E

    2008-01-01

    On 31 July the company Chimac-Agriphar from Ougrée discharged 64 kilo chlorpyrifos and 12 kilo cypermethrin into the River Meuse, imposing risks to recreation (swimming and fishing), ecology (about 20 to 25 ton fish were killed) and drinking water production. In this study a retrospective risk analysis of this accidental spill was done in order to get more understanding of the risks on fish and drinking water production. The exposure is characterized through environmental concentrations of cy...

  13. Risk assessment of diazinon to birds using the Tier I Eco-Risk Calculator model%应用Tier I Eco-Risk Calculator模型评估二嗪磷对鸟类的风险

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    韩志华; 程燕; 周军英; 单正军

    2011-01-01

    在室内急性毒性试验的基础上,应用Tier I Eco-Risk calculator模型对50%二嗪磷乳油对日本鹌鹑的生态风险进行了评价.50%二嗪磷乳油的经口毒性LD50值为每1kg体重4.61 mg;经食毒性LC50值为每1kg饲料120.0 mg.模型预测结果表明:直接经口暴露时,50%二嗪磷乳油对鹌鹑具有急性高风险;经食暴露时,其对鹌鹑产生急性风险的可能性也较高.因此,应禁止在鸟类保护区或其临近地区使用二嗪磷,在不影响药效的基础上尽可能减少使用量,改变剂型或使用方法等,以降低二嗪磷对鸟类的风险.%Tier I Eco-Risk Calculator was used to predict the risks of diazinon 500 EC to Japanese Quail ( Coturnix japonica) basing on the results of in-door acute toxicity tests. The acute toxicity tests showed that the oral LD50of diazinon 500 EC to C. japonica is 4. 61 mg per 1 kg body weight,and the dietary LC50 of diazinon 500 EC to C. japonica is 120 mg per 1 kg diet. The output of model showed that, for seed treatment, diazinon posed a highly acute risk to birds by oral exposure. For application of spray on crops,by the dietary exposure,the risk of diazinon to birds was also high. Therefore,mitigation measures were discussed in order to reduce its risk to birds. And the adoptable measures include:prohibit from applying in or near the Birds Nature Reserves;reduce the application rate, change the formulation or using method were proposed under the condition of not influencing the efficacy.

  14. Insecticide contamination of the River Meuse in August 2007. Risk Assessment on the basis of MAM calculations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Penailillo B.R.; Morales, Y.; Meijers, E.

    2008-01-01

    On 31 July the company Chimac-Agriphar from Ougrée discharged 64 kilo chlorpyrifos and 12 kilo cypermethrin into the River Meuse, imposing risks to recreation (swimming and fishing), ecology (about 20 to 25 ton fish were killed) and drinking water production. In this study a retrospective risk analy

  15. Unknown Safety and Efficacy of Smartphone Bolus Calculator Apps Puts Patients at Risk for Severe Adverse Outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hirsch, Irl B; Parkin, Christopher G

    2016-07-01

    Manual calculation of bolus insulin dosages can be challenging for individuals treated with multiple daily insulin injections (MDI) therapy. Automated bolus calculator capability has recently been made available via enhanced blood glucose meters and smartphone apps. Use of this technology has been shown to improve glycemic control and reduce glycemic variability without changing hypoglycemia; however, the clinical utility of app-based bolus calculators has not been demonstrated. Moreover, recent evidence challenges the safety and efficacy of these smartphone apps. Although the ability to automatically calculate bolus insulin dosages addresses a critical need of MDI-treated individuals, this technology raises concerns about efficacy of treatment and the protection of patient safety. This article discusses key issues and considerations associated with automated bolus calculator use. PMID:26798082

  16. Application of calculation engine of RiskA to nuclear power plant's probabilistic safety assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    PRAQUANT is one of the modules used for accident sequence quantification in R and R Workstation, a suite of probabilistic safety assessment software. And CQUANT is the quantification engine of PRAQUANT. RiskA is a fault tree quantification engine developed by FDS Team, which can be integrated into PRAQUANT as a third party quantification engine. The process of the integration was introduced in this paper, as well as the benchmark between RiskA and CQUANT. The results of benchmark showed that the algorithms adopted in RiskA are correct and efficient. (authors)

  17. Guideline for external radiation and protection. Risk calculation for protection and/or encapsulated sources and surface contamination

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In this guideline an overview is given of the calculation methods that can be or have to be applied for several installations and situations. The starting points of this guideline are conform the amended Decree Radiation Protection as formulated in the Dutch Nuclear Energy Law. In appendix 1 the weakening of ionizing radiation by means of transmission through matter is described. Appendix 2 illustrates the problemacy of the shielding of parallel and diverging bundles of photons on the basis of Monte Carlo simulation

  18. Historical Returns and the Appropriate Time-Frame for Future Value Calculations: Implications for Risk Management and Personal Financial Planning

    OpenAIRE

    Ewing Bradley T; Thompson Mark A

    2012-01-01

    In future value calculations, investors often assume that the real return is constant over the planning horizon. We examine whether this assumption is appropriate. Our results suggest that investors can expect to earn the historical average real return provided their horizon is at least 15 years for stocks and at least 7 years for bonds, depending on the size of recent shocks. This “rule of thumb” assures reasonable insulation from the inevitable fluctuations of the market.

  19. Use of the Joint British Society cardiovascular risk calculator before initiating statins for primary prevention in hospital medicine: experience from a large university teaching hospital

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pankaj Garg

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available Pankaj Garg, Prashanth Raju, Ewa Sondej, Erwin Rodrigues, Gershan DavisAintree Cardiac Centre, University Hospital Aintree, Liverpool, UKIntroduction: Statin therapy is a well established treatment for hyperlipidemia. However, little is known about prescribing of statins for primary prevention in the real world, and even less about what happens to patients requiring primary prevention who are seen in a secondary care setting. The purpose of this research was to investigate the appropriateness of statin prescriptions by using the Joint British Society cardiovascular disease (JBS CVD risk score for primary prevention in a large secondary care center.Methods: We retrospectively analyzed 500 consecutive patients in whom a statin prescription was initiated over a four-month period. We excluded patients who met secondary prevention criteria. We used the JBS CVD risk prediction chart to calculate 10-year composite risk. We also studied which statins were prescribed and their starting doses.Results: Of 500 patients consecutively started on statins in secondary care, 51 patients (10.2% were treated for primary prevention. Of these, seven (14% patients had a 10-year composite cardiovascular event risk of more than 20% (high-risk category, and were hence receiving appropriate therapy. Three main statins were prescribed for primary prevention, ie, atorvastatin (22 patients, 43%, simvastatin (25 patients, 49%, and pravastatin (four patients, 8%. The statins prescribed were initiated mainly at the 40 mg dose.Conclusions: Statin prescribing in secondary care for primary prevention is limited to about 10% of initiations. There is some overprescribing, because 86% of these patients did not require statins when risk-stratified appropriately. The majority of the prescriptions were for simvastatin 40 mg and atorvastatin 40 mg.Keywords: statins, primary prevention, hypercholesterolemia, cardiovascular disease, retrospective

  20. GENII-LIN-2.1: an open source software system for calculating radiation dose and risk from radionuclides released to the environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    GENII-LIN is an open source radiation protection environmental software system running on the Linux operating system. It has capabilities for calculating radiation dose and risk to individuals or populations from radionuclides released to the environment and from pre-existing environmental contamination. It can handle exposure pathways that include ingestion, inhalation and direct exposure to air, water and soil. The package is available for free and is completely open source, i.e., transparent to the users, who have full access to the source code of the software. (note)

  1. Application of deformable registration and empirical method to calculate the accumulated dose for normal tissues and organs at risks in lung cancer radiotherapy plans

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Objective: To evaluate the accumulated doses to normal tissues and organs at risks (OARs) of patients with lung cancer in radiotherapy plans by using the deformable registration method, and make comparison with the empirical calculation method. Methods: Ten patients with lung cancer were analyzed retrospectively. 3D-CRT or IMRT plans were designed before treatment. CT to simulator was rescanned and the same treatment plan was redesigned during radiotherapy. Based on the deformable registration method, the Mimvista software was used to calculate the accumulated doses to normal tissues and OARs in two CT images respectively. The empirical estimation algorithm was calculated by the linear relationship between the fractions and the total prescribed dose. Results: The target coverage of patients had no significant difference in two plans. There were no significant differences in all the dose volume parameters for normal tissues and OARs, except the mean dose to right lung (t=2.98, P<0.05) when the the same plan was conducted in position-setting and reposition CT images. Conclusions: The empirical estimation for the accumulated dose could be used to evaluate the dose and volume parameters for normal tissues and OARs in lung cancer by the same plan. (authors)

  2. Propossal of a model for the calculation of doses and of the risk due to inhalation and ingestion of radionuclides from nuclear facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    An improvement of existing models for the various body components and simulates the human body metabolic behaviour as a whole, are presented. It takes into account the uptake of material, via nose or mouth, up to its excretion by urine or faeces. It has an aditional choice for calculation, which permits the evaluation of the quantity of material that has settled inside the organism, using the data obtained from the quantitative analysis of the excreta. The simulation of the metabolic process leads to the possibility of dose and detriment estimation as well as the corresponding mortality and genetic risks. Metabolic tests were made for physiological comparison and for the determination of the whole body dose equivalent. Tests were made, using different intake and excretion activities, to verify the validity of the proposed model. (E.G.)

  3. Target volume coverage and dose to organs at risk in prostate cancer patients. Dose calculation on daily cone-beam CT data sets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    On the basis of correct Hounsfield unit to electron density calibration, cone-beam computed tomography (CBCT) data provide the opportunity for retrospective dose recalculation in the patient. Therefore, the consequences of translational positioning corrections and of morphological changes in the patient anatomy can be quantified for prostate cancer patients. The organs at risk were newly contoured on the CBCT data sets of 7 patients so as to evaluate the actual applied dose. The daily dose to the planning target volume (PTV) was recalculated with and without the translation data, which result from the real patient repositioning. A CBCT-based dose recalculation with uncertainties less than 3 % is possible. The deviations between the planning CT and the CBCT without the translational positioning correction vector show an average dose difference of - 8 % inside the PTV. An inverse proportional relation between the mean bladder dose and the actual volume of the bladder could be established. The daily applied dose to the rectum is about 1-54 % higher than predicted by the planning CT. A dose calculation based on CBCT data is possible. The daily positioning correction of the patient is necessary to avoid an underdosage in the PTV. The new contouring of the organs at risk - the bladder and rectum - allows a better appraisal to be made of the total applied dose to these organs. (orig.)

  4. Reliability calculations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Risk and reliability analysis is increasingly being used in evaluations of plant safety and plant reliability. The analysis can be performed either during the design process or during the operation time, with the purpose to improve the safety or the reliability. Due to plant complexity and safety and availability requirements, sophisticated tools, which are flexible and efficient, are needed. Such tools have been developed in the last 20 years and they have to be continuously refined to meet the growing requirements. Two different areas of application were analysed. In structural reliability probabilistic approaches have been introduced in some cases for the calculation of the reliability of structures or components. A new computer program has been developed based upon numerical integration in several variables. In systems reliability Monte Carlo simulation programs are used especially in analysis of very complex systems. In order to increase the applicability of the programs variance reduction techniques can be applied to speed up the calculation process. Variance reduction techniques have been studied and procedures for implementation of importance sampling are suggested. (author)

  5. 77 FR 21775 - Risk Adjustment Meeting-May 7, 2012 and May 8, 2012

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-04-11

    ... following topics: The risk adjustment model, calculation of plan average actuarial risk, calculation of... risk adjustment model, calculation of plan average actuarial risk, calculation of payments and...

  6. British Committee on Radiation Units and Measurements: RBE values for the retrospective calculation of risk to specific organs as a result of neutron irradiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In radiological protection, the physical quantity, absorbed dose, is weighted to account for the biological effectiveness of the radiation depositing energy in human tissue. In the past, this weighting factor has been called the quality factor, Q, and the weighted absorbed dose was called the dose equivalent, H. The International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) Publication 60 (ICRP 60), which replaces ICRP Publication 26 (ICRP 26), represents a very significant departure from this approach in that the weighting factors for setting dose limits and for operational use are no longer the same. In ICRP 60, a new radiation weighting factor WR, was introduced for the protection quantities. The method of weighting proposed by International Commission on Radiation Units and Measurements (ICRU) for the operational quantities remains the Q(L)-L relationship, where Q is the quality factor and L is the linear energy transfer (LET in water: a new Q(L)-L relationship is proposed in ICRP 60. It is important to note that WR is determined by the incident radiation and is applied to the mean absorbed dose in the organ of interest, whereas L and Q are determined by the incident radiation and is applied to the mean absorbed dose in the organ of interest, whereas L and Q are determined at the point of interest and applied to the absorbed dose at that point. In this paper the British Committee on Radiation Units (BCRU) sets out the concepts in ICRP 60 which are the cause of concern and which stem from the use of the WR concept for neutron radiation. The ICRP is unlikely to change the concept of WR in the near future and therefore it is important to recognise that problems may arise in specialist areas and consider the remedies within the spirit of the ICRP and ICRU recommendations. Thus we seek to provide recommendations on the assessment of organ doses where the conceptual approach in ICRP 60 could result in substantial overestimates of risk to particular individuals in

  7. A geosphere transport model for risk evaluation: Calculation of maximum concentration of activity at given distances from the waste disposal site due to water invasion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A simplified model for the calculation of radioactivity concentration in water due to invasion of water in an underground disposal area of radioactive waste is described. The methodological framework for computation is based on processes like leaching, hydrodynamic dispersion and diffusion and physico-chemical sorption. A computer program LEDIRE is written in FORTRAN language for the purpose of a parametric study. The results of an example calculation are given and some limits of such calculations are shown

  8. 定量的信息安全风险评估计算模型的研究%STUDY ON CALCULATION MODEL OF QUANTITATIVE ASSESSMENT OF INFORMATION SECURITY RISK

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    孙强

    2012-01-01

    为解决信息安全风险评估过程中信息难以量化分析的问题,在原有定性风险评估方法的基础上,提出一种定量的信息安全风险评估方法.通过对风险的量化分析,使得信息安全风险评估过程中风险值的计算更加科学和准确,解决了以往定性分析方法数据计算粗略、不准确和难于区分风险的重要程度等问题.通过信息安全风险评估过程中的实际应用,表明该方法具有一定的可行性.%In order to overcome the difficulty in quantitative analysis on assessment process of information security risk, a new quantitative assessment method for information security risk is proposed, which is based on original qualitative risk assessment method. Through the quantitative analysis on risk, the method makes the calculation of risk value in assessment process of information security risk more scientific and accurate, thereby solves the problems of previous qualitative analysis method, such as rough data calculation, inaccuracy and the difficulty in differentiating the importance of the risks. Practical application of the new method in assessment process of information security risk verifies its feasibility in certain extent.

  9. Random and systematic errors in case-control studies calculating the injury risk of driving under the influence of psychoactive substances

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Houwing, Sjoerd; Hagenzieker, Marjan; Mathijssen, René;

    2013-01-01

    and cell counts were the most frequently observed errors in the six DRUID case–control studies. Therefore, it is recommended that epidemiological studies that assess the risk of psychoactive substances in traffic pay specific attention to avoid these potential sources of random and systematic errors...

  10. Random and systematic errors in case–control studies calculating the injury risk of driving under the influence of psychoactive substances

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Houwing, Sjoerd; Hagenzieker, Marjan; Mathijssen, René P.M.;

    2013-01-01

    and cell counts were the most frequently observed errors in the six DRUID case-control studies. Therefore, it is recommended that epidemiological studies that assess the risk of psychoactive substances in traffic pay specific attention to avoid these potential sources of random and systematic errors...

  11. MEMS Calculator

    Science.gov (United States)

    SRD 166 MEMS Calculator (Web, free access)   This MEMS Calculator determines the following thin film properties from data taken with an optical interferometer or comparable instrument: a) residual strain from fixed-fixed beams, b) strain gradient from cantilevers, c) step heights or thicknesses from step-height test structures, and d) in-plane lengths or deflections. Then, residual stress and stress gradient calculations can be made after an optical vibrometer or comparable instrument is used to obtain Young's modulus from resonating cantilevers or fixed-fixed beams. In addition, wafer bond strength is determined from micro-chevron test structures using a material test machine.

  12. Reactor safety study. An assessment of accident risks in U.S. commercial nuclear power plants. Appendix VI. Calculation of reactor accident consequences

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Information is presented concerning the radioactive releases from the containment following accidents; radioactive inventory of the reactor core; atmospheric dispersion; reactor sites and meteorological data; radioactive decay and deposition from plumes; finite distance of plume travel; dosimetric models; health effects; demographic data; mitigation of radiation exposure; economic model; and calculated results with consequence model

  13. Reactor safety study. An assessment of accident risks in U. S. commercial nuclear power plants. Appendix VI. Calculation of reactor accident consequences. [PWR and BWR

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1975-10-01

    Information is presented concerning the radioactive releases from the containment following accidents; radioactive inventory of the reactor core; atmospheric dispersion; reactor sites and meteorological data; radioactive decay and deposition from plumes; finite distance of plume travel; dosimetric models; health effects; demographic data; mitigation of radiation exposure; economic model; and calculated results with consequence model.

  14. Stochastic calculations for radiation risk assessment: a Monte-Carlo approach to the simulation of radiocesium transport in the pasture-cow-milk food chain

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The effects of introducing probability distributions of the parameters in radionuclide transport models are investigated. Results from a Monte-Carlo simulation were presented for the transport of 137Cs via the pasture-cow-milk pathway, taking into the account the uncertainties and naturally occurring fluctuations in the rate constants. The results of the stochastic model calculations characterize the activity concentrations at a given time t and provide a great deal more information for analysis of the environmental transport of radionuclides than deterministic calculations in which the variation of parameters is not taken into consideration. Moreover the stochastic model permits an estimate of the variation of the physico-chemical behaviour of radionuclides in the environment in a more realistic way than by using only the highest transfer coefficients in deterministic approaches, which can lead to non-realistic overestimates of the probability with which high activity levels will be encountered. (U.K.)

  15. Reliability Calculations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petersen, Kurt Erling

    1986-01-01

    probabilistic approaches have been introduced in some cases for the calculation of the reliability of structures or components. A new computer program has been developed based upon numerical integration in several variables. In systems reliability Monte Carlo simulation programs are used especially in analysis...... of very complex systems. In order to increase the applicability of the programs variance reduction techniques can be applied to speed up the calculation process. Variance reduction techniques have been studied and procedures for implementation of importance sampling are suggested....

  16. SU-E-T-634: Analysis of Volume Based GYN HDR Brachytherapy Plans for Dose Calculation to Organs At Risk(OAR)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Purpose: We have analyzed the dose volume histogram of 140 CT based HDR brachytherapy plans and evaluated the dose received to OAR ; rectum, bladder and sigmoid colon based on recommendations from ICRU and Image guided brachytherapy working group for cervical cancer . Methods: Our treatment protocol consist of XRT to whole pelvis with 45 Gy at 1.8Gy/fraction followed by 30 Gy at 6 Gy per fraction by HDR brachytherapy in 2 weeks . The CT compatible tandem and ovoid applicators were used and stabilized with radio opaque packing material. The patient was stabilized using special re-locatable implant table and stirrups for reproducibility of the geometry during treatment. The CT scan images were taken at 3mm slice thickness and exported to the treatment planning computer. The OAR structures, bladder, rectum and sigmoid colon were outlined on the images along with the applicators. The prescription dose was targeted to A left and A right as defined in Manchester system and optimized on geometry . The dosimetry was compared on all plans using the parameter Ci.sec.cGy-1 . Using the Dose Volume Histogram (DVH) obtained from the plans the doses to rectum, sigmoid colon and bladder for ICRU defined points and 2cc volume were analyzed and reported. The following criteria were used for limiting the tolerance dose by volume (D2cc) were calculated. The rectum and sigmoid colon doses were limited to <75Gy. The bladder dose was limited to < 90Gy from both XRT and HDR brachytherapy. Results: The average total (XRT+HDRBT) BED values to prescription volume was 120 Gy. Dose 2cc to rectum was 70Gy +/− 17Gy, dose to 2cc bladder was 82+/−32 Gy. The average Ci.sec.cGy-1 calculated for the HDR plans was 6.99 +/− 0.5 Conclusion: The image based treatment planning enabled to evaluati volume based dose to critical structures for clinical interpretation

  17. SU-E-T-634: Analysis of Volume Based GYN HDR Brachytherapy Plans for Dose Calculation to Organs At Risk(OAR)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nair, M; Li, C; White, M; Davis, J [Joe Arrington Cancer Center, Lubbock, TX (United States)

    2014-06-15

    Purpose: We have analyzed the dose volume histogram of 140 CT based HDR brachytherapy plans and evaluated the dose received to OAR ; rectum, bladder and sigmoid colon based on recommendations from ICRU and Image guided brachytherapy working group for cervical cancer . Methods: Our treatment protocol consist of XRT to whole pelvis with 45 Gy at 1.8Gy/fraction followed by 30 Gy at 6 Gy per fraction by HDR brachytherapy in 2 weeks . The CT compatible tandem and ovoid applicators were used and stabilized with radio opaque packing material. The patient was stabilized using special re-locatable implant table and stirrups for reproducibility of the geometry during treatment. The CT scan images were taken at 3mm slice thickness and exported to the treatment planning computer. The OAR structures, bladder, rectum and sigmoid colon were outlined on the images along with the applicators. The prescription dose was targeted to A left and A right as defined in Manchester system and optimized on geometry . The dosimetry was compared on all plans using the parameter Ci.sec.cGy-1 . Using the Dose Volume Histogram (DVH) obtained from the plans the doses to rectum, sigmoid colon and bladder for ICRU defined points and 2cc volume were analyzed and reported. The following criteria were used for limiting the tolerance dose by volume (D2cc) were calculated. The rectum and sigmoid colon doses were limited to <75Gy. The bladder dose was limited to < 90Gy from both XRT and HDR brachytherapy. Results: The average total (XRT+HDRBT) BED values to prescription volume was 120 Gy. Dose 2cc to rectum was 70Gy +/− 17Gy, dose to 2cc bladder was 82+/−32 Gy. The average Ci.sec.cGy-1 calculated for the HDR plans was 6.99 +/− 0.5 Conclusion: The image based treatment planning enabled to evaluati volume based dose to critical structures for clinical interpretation.

  18. SPEI Calculator

    OpenAIRE

    Beguería, Santiago; Vicente Serrano, Sergio M.

    2009-01-01

    [EN] *Objectives: The program calculates time series of the Standardised Precipitation-Evapotransporation Index (SPEI). *Technical Characteristics: The program is executed from the Windows console. From an input data file containing monthly time series of precipitation and mean temperature, plus the geographic coordinates of the observatory, the program computes the SPEI accumulated at the time interval specified by the user, and generates a new data file with the SPEI time serie...

  19. Burnout calculation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reviewed is the effect of heat flux of different system parameters on critical density in order to give an initial view on the value of several parameters. A thorough analysis of different equations is carried out to calculate burnout is steam-water flows in uniformly heated tubes, annular, and rectangular channels and rod bundles. Effect of heat flux density distribution and flux twisting on burnout and storage determination according to burnout are commended

  20. Comment on 'Calculated MPC values for Pu02 by comparing the added risk of cancer with the accepted occupational risks', by De Bont, A.H.; Beentjes, L.B., and reply

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The article (Health Phys. 36, 53-58, 1979) adopts 10-4/yr as the 'accepted occupational risks'. Dr. Cohen criticises that value and its application to determination of MPC values for radioactivity for several reasons. The authors' reply states that their intention is not to exaggerate dangers, but that they believe that they have good reasons to suggest a reduction in the MPC for Pu02. (author)

  1. Relative Hazard Calculation Methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The methodology presented in this document was developed to provide a means of calculating the RH ratios to use in developing useful graphic illustrations. The RH equation, as presented in this methodology, is primarily a collection of key factors relevant to understanding the hazards and risks associated with projected risk management activities. The RH equation has the potential for much broader application than generating risk profiles. For example, it can be used to compare one risk management activity with another, instead of just comparing it to a fixed baseline as was done for the risk profiles. If the appropriate source term data are available, it could be used in its non-ratio form to estimate absolute values of the associated hazards. These estimated values of hazard could then be examined to help understand which risk management activities are addressing the higher hazard conditions at a site. Graphics could be generated from these absolute hazard values to compare high-hazard conditions. If the RH equation is used in this manner, care must be taken to specifically define and qualify the estimated absolute hazard values (e.g., identify which factors were considered and which ones tended to drive the hazard estimation)

  2. Interest Rate Risk and Calculation for Bond with Embedded Option%利率风险及隐含期权调整后的久期计算

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    唐恩林

    2014-01-01

    This paper expounds the meaning of the traditional Macaulay duration .Relaxing the assump-tion of the term structure of interest rate independent with cash flow ,the traditional Macaulay duration cannot effectively and accurately measure the value of financial instruments .At the same time ,based on the assumption of the term structure of interest rate independent with cash flow ,this paper gives the method of calculation for bond with embedded option .%从阐述传统麦考莱久期的含义开始,揭示了传统麦考莱久期在放松利率期限结构和现金流相互独立的假设下无法有效准确的衡量金融工具的现值。同时基于Redington模型对于利率期限结构独立于现金流的假设,给出了隐含期权条件下的久期计算方法。

  3. Critical dose and toxicity index of organs at risk in radiotherapy: Analyzing the calculated effects of modified dose fractionation in non–small cell lung cancer

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pedicini, Piernicola, E-mail: ppiern@libero.it [Service of Medical Physics, I.R.C.C.S. Regional Cancer Hospital C.R.O.B, Rionero in Vulture (Italy); Strigari, Lidia [Laboratory of Medical Physics and Expert Systems, Regina Elena National Cancer Institute, Rome (Italy); Benassi, Marcello [Service of Medical Physics, Scientific Institute of Tumours of Romagna I.R.S.T., Meldola (Italy); Caivano, Rocchina [Service of Medical Physics, I.R.C.C.S. Regional Cancer Hospital C.R.O.B, Rionero in Vulture (Italy); Fiorentino, Alba [U.O. of Radiotherapy, I.R.C.C.S. Regional Cancer Hospital C.R.O.B., Rionero in Vulture (Italy); Nappi, Antonio [U.O. of Nuclear Medicine, I.R.C.C.S. Regional Cancer Hospital C.R.O.B., Rionero in Vulture (Italy); Salvatore, Marco [U.O. of Nuclear Medicine, I.R.C.C.S. SDN Foundation, Naples (Italy); Storto, Giovanni [U.O. of Nuclear Medicine, I.R.C.C.S. Regional Cancer Hospital C.R.O.B., Rionero in Vulture (Italy)

    2014-04-01

    To increase the efficacy of radiotherapy for non–small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), many schemes of dose fractionation were assessed by a new “toxicity index” (I), which allows one to choose the fractionation schedules that produce less toxic treatments. Thirty-two patients affected by non resectable NSCLC were treated by standard 3-dimensional conformal radiotherapy (3DCRT) with a strategy of limited treated volume. Computed tomography datasets were employed to re plan by simultaneous integrated boost intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT). The dose distributions from plans were used to test various schemes of dose fractionation, in 3DCRT as well as in IMRT, by transforming the dose-volume histogram (DVH) into a biological equivalent DVH (BDVH) and by varying the overall treatment time. The BDVHs were obtained through the toxicity index, which was defined for each of the organs at risk (OAR) by a linear quadratic model keeping an equivalent radiobiological effect on the target volume. The less toxic fractionation consisted in a severe/moderate hyper fractionation for the volume including the primary tumor and lymph nodes, followed by a hypofractionation for the reduced volume of the primary tumor. The 3DCRT and IMRT resulted, respectively, in 4.7% and 4.3% of dose sparing for the spinal cord, without significant changes for the combined-lungs toxicity (p < 0.001). Schedules with reduced overall treatment time (accelerated fractionations) led to a 12.5% dose sparing for the spinal cord (7.5% in IMRT), 8.3% dose sparing for V{sub 20} in the combined lungs (5.5% in IMRT), and also significant dose sparing for all the other OARs (p < 0.001). The toxicity index allows to choose fractionation schedules with reduced toxicity for all the OARs and equivalent radiobiological effect for the tumor in 3DCRT, as well as in IMRT, treatments of NSCLC.

  4. Calculator calculus

    CERN Document Server

    McCarty, George

    1982-01-01

    How THIS BOOK DIFFERS This book is about the calculus. What distinguishes it, however, from other books is that it uses the pocket calculator to illustrate the theory. A computation that requires hours of labor when done by hand with tables is quite inappropriate as an example or exercise in a beginning calculus course. But that same computation can become a delicate illustration of the theory when the student does it in seconds on his calculator. t Furthermore, the student's own personal involvement and easy accomplishment give hi~ reassurance and en­ couragement. The machine is like a microscope, and its magnification is a hundred millionfold. We shall be interested in limits, and no stage of numerical approximation proves anything about the limit. However, the derivative of fex) = 67.SgX, for instance, acquires real meaning when a student first appreciates its values as numbers, as limits of 10 100 1000 t A quick example is 1.1 , 1.01 , 1.001 , •••• Another example is t = 0.1, 0.01, in the functio...

  5. Medicare Program; Medicare Shared Savings Program; Accountable Care Organizations--Revised Benchmark Rebasing Methodology, Facilitating Transition to Performance-Based Risk, and Administrative Finality of Financial Calculations. Final rule.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-06-10

    Under the Medicare Shared Savings Program (Shared Savings Program), providers of services and suppliers that participate in an Accountable Care Organization (ACO) continue to receive traditional Medicare fee-for-service (FFS) payments under Parts A and B, but the ACO may be eligible to receive a shared savings payment if it meets specified quality and savings requirements. This final rule addresses changes to the Shared Savings Program, including: Modifications to the program's benchmarking methodology, when resetting (rebasing) the ACO's benchmark for a second or subsequent agreement period, to encourage ACOs' continued investment in care coordination and quality improvement; an alternative participation option to encourage ACOs to enter performance-based risk arrangements earlier in their participation under the program; and policies for reopening of payment determinations to make corrections after financial calculations have been performed and ACO shared savings and shared losses for a performance year have been determined. PMID:27295736

  6. The risks of current political risk management

    OpenAIRE

    Bussotti, Luca

    2014-01-01

    Political risk is a concept traditionally related, on the one hand, to the rational calculation of risk in economic activities and, on the other, to a particular historical moment in which it has taken on the characteristics of an autonomous research field. Risk calculation and the management of lucrative activities have illustrious precedents. At the beginning of the 20th century, Max Weber pointed out the necessity to forecast all the possible risks that come from non-economic factors (such...

  7. Evaluation of potential severe accidents during low power and shutdown operations at Grand Gulf, Unit 1: Evaluation of severe accident risks for plant operational state 5 during a refueling outage. Supporting MELCOR calculations, Volume 6, Part 2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    To gain a better understanding of the risk significance of low power and shutdown modes of operation, the Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research at the NRC established programs to investigate the likelihood and severity of postulated accidents that could occur during low power and shutdown (LP ampersand S) modes of operation at commercial nuclear power plants. To investigate the likelihood of severe core damage accidents during off power conditions, probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) were performed for two nuclear plants: Unit 1 of the Grand Gulf Nuclear Station, which is a BWR-6 Mark III boiling water reactor (BWR), and Unit 1 of the Surry Power Station, which is a three-loop, subatmospheric, pressurized water reactor (PWR). The analysis of the BWR was conducted at Sandia National Laboratories while the analysis of the PWR was performed at Brookhaven National Laboratory. This multi-volume report presents and discusses the results of the BWR analysis. The subject of this part presents the deterministic code calculations, performed with the MELCOR code, that were used to support the development and quantification of the PRA models. The background for the work documented in this report is summarized, including how deterministic codes are used in PRAS, why the MELCOR code is used, what the capabilities and features of MELCOR are, and how the code has been used by others in the past. Brief descriptions of the Grand Gulf plant and its configuration during LP ampersand S operation and of the MELCOR input model developed for the Grand Gulf plant in its LP ampersand S configuration are given

  8. Evaluation of potential severe accidents during low power and shutdown operations at Grand Gulf, Unit 1: Evaluation of severe accident risks for plant operational state 5 during a refueling outage. Supporting MELCOR calculations, Volume 6, Part 2

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kmetyk, L.N.; Brown, T.D. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    1995-03-01

    To gain a better understanding of the risk significance of low power and shutdown modes of operation, the Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research at the NRC established programs to investigate the likelihood and severity of postulated accidents that could occur during low power and shutdown (LP&S) modes of operation at commercial nuclear power plants. To investigate the likelihood of severe core damage accidents during off power conditions, probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) were performed for two nuclear plants: Unit 1 of the Grand Gulf Nuclear Station, which is a BWR-6 Mark III boiling water reactor (BWR), and Unit 1 of the Surry Power Station, which is a three-loop, subatmospheric, pressurized water reactor (PWR). The analysis of the BWR was conducted at Sandia National Laboratories while the analysis of the PWR was performed at Brookhaven National Laboratory. This multi-volume report presents and discusses the results of the BWR analysis. The subject of this part presents the deterministic code calculations, performed with the MELCOR code, that were used to support the development and quantification of the PRA models. The background for the work documented in this report is summarized, including how deterministic codes are used in PRAS, why the MELCOR code is used, what the capabilities and features of MELCOR are, and how the code has been used by others in the past. Brief descriptions of the Grand Gulf plant and its configuration during LP&S operation and of the MELCOR input model developed for the Grand Gulf plant in its LP&S configuration are given.

  9. Risk and Risk Management

    OpenAIRE

    Mirela Iloiu

    2005-01-01

    Risk exists whenever the future is unknown. This paper deals with the concepts of risk and uncertainty, risk attitudes and reaction to risk. It is explained the distinction between objective risk and subjective risk. Also, it presents risk attitudes and factors affecting them and the economic costs of risk: costs of unexpected losses and costs of uncertainty.

  10. Strategic Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Derleth, Jason; Lobia, Marcus

    2009-01-01

    This slide presentation provides an overview of the attempt to develop and demonstrate a methodology for the comparative assessment of risks across the entire portfolio of NASA projects and assets. It includes information about strategic risk identification, normalizing strategic risks, calculation of relative risk score, and implementation options.

  11. Prenatal radiation exposure. Dose calculation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The unborn child requires special protection. In this context, the indication for an X-ray examination is to be checked critically. If thereupon radiation of the lower abdomen including the uterus cannot be avoided, the examination should be postponed until the end of pregnancy or alternative examination techniques should be considered. Under certain circumstances, either accidental or in unavoidable cases after a thorough risk assessment, radiation exposure of the unborn may take place. In some of these cases an expert radiation hygiene consultation may be required. This consultation should comprise the expected risks for the unborn while not perturbing the mother or the involved medical staff. For the risk assessment in case of an in-utero X-ray exposition deterministic damages with a defined threshold dose are distinguished from stochastic damages without a definable threshold dose. The occurrence of deterministic damages depends on the dose and the developmental stage of the unborn at the time of radiation. To calculate the risks of an in-utero radiation exposure a three-stage concept is commonly applied. Depending on the amount of radiation, the radiation dose is either estimated, roughly calculated using standard tables or, in critical cases, accurately calculated based on the individual event. The complexity of the calculation thereby increases from stage to stage. An estimation based on stage one is easily feasible whereas calculations based on stages two and especially three are more complex and often necessitate execution by specialists. This article demonstrates in detail the risks for the unborn child pertaining to its developmental phase and explains the three-stage concept as an evaluation scheme. It should be noted, that all risk estimations are subject to considerable uncertainties.

  12. HENRY'S LAW CALCULATOR

    Science.gov (United States)

    On-Site was developed to provide modelers and model reviewers with prepackaged tools ("calculators") for performing site assessment calculations. The philosophy behind OnSite is that the convenience of the prepackaged calculators helps provide consistency for simple calculations,...

  13. Assessment of cardiovascular risk.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Cooney, Marie Therese

    2010-10-01

    Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the most common cause of death worldwide. Usually atherosclerosis is caused by the combined effects of multiple risk factors. For this reason, most guidelines on the prevention of CVD stress the assessment of total CVD risk. The most intensive risk factor modification can then be directed towards the individuals who will derive the greatest benefit. To assist the clinician in calculating the effects of these multiple interacting risk factors, a number of risk estimation systems have been developed. This review address several issues regarding total CVD risk assessment: Why should total CVD risk be assessed? What risk estimation systems are available? How well do these systems estimate risk? What are the advantages and disadvantages of the current systems? What are the current limitations of risk estimation systems and how can they be resolved? What new developments have occurred in CVD risk estimation?

  14. Distillation Calculations with a Programmable Calculator.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walker, Charles A.; Halpern, Bret L.

    1983-01-01

    Describes a three-step approach for teaching multicomponent distillation to undergraduates, emphasizing patterns of distribution as an aid to understanding the separation processes. Indicates that the second step can be carried out by programmable calculators. (A more complete set of programs for additional calculations is available from the…

  15. Canister Transfer Facility Criticality Calculations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    J.E. Monroe-Rammsy

    2000-10-13

    The objective of this calculation is to evaluate the criticality risk in the surface facility for design basis events (DBE) involving Department of Energy (DOE) Spent Nuclear Fuel (SNF) standardized canisters (Civilian Radioactive Waste Management System [CRWMS] Management and Operating Contractor [M&O] 2000a). Since some of the canisters will be stored in the surface facility before they are loaded in the waste package (WP), this calculation supports the demonstration of concept viability related to the Surface Facility environment. The scope of this calculation is limited to the consideration of three DOE SNF fuels, specifically Enrico Fermi SNF, Training Research Isotope General Atomic (TRIGA) SNF, and Mixed Oxide (MOX) Fast Flux Test Facility (FFTF) SNF.

  16. Risk and risk acceptance by society

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Various dimensions of risk are identified which relate to the manner in which risk is perceived and evaluated, and several self-consistent risk characteristics are explored. Factors which are thought to influence the perception of risk include the degree of personal control over the risk, the potential of episodic events, and the probable severity of injury if a risk event occurs. Risk-benefit analysis can be applied to three problems: the allocation of resources for safety expenditures, the setting of standards, and societal risk taking decisions. Calculations of benefit are needed for the third area of application, methods for the other two frequently do not require such a measure. (orig./RW)

  17. Measuring Model Risk

    OpenAIRE

    Thomas Breuer; Imre Csiszar

    2013-01-01

    We propose to interpret distribution model risk as sensitivity of expected loss to changes in the risk factor distribution, and to measure the distribution model risk of a portfolio by the maximum expected loss over a set of plausible distributions defined in terms of some divergence from an estimated distribution. The divergence may be relative entropy, a Bregman distance, or an $f$-divergence. We give formulas for the calculation of distribution model risk and explicitly determine the worst...

  18. Individualizing fracture risk prediction

    OpenAIRE

    van Geel, Tineke A. C. M.; van den Bergh, Joop P. W.; Dinant, Geert Jan; Geusens, Piet

    2010-01-01

    Low bone mineral density (BMD) and clinical factors (CRF) have been identified as factors associated with an increased relative risk of fractures. From this observation and for clinical decision making, the concept of prediction of the individual absolute risk of fractures has emerged. It refers to the individual's risk for fractures over a certain time period, e.g. the next 5 and 10 years. Two individualized fracture risk calculation tools that are increasingly used and are available on the ...

  19. Autistic Savant Calendar Calculators.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patti, Paul J.

    This study identified 10 savants with developmental disabilities and an exceptional ability to calculate calendar dates. These "calendar calculators" were asked to demonstrate their abilities, and their strategies were analyzed. The study found that the ability to calculate dates into the past or future varied widely among these calculators. Three…

  20. Economic profitability evolution at the Carpathian Commercial Bank , in relation to aggregate values of calculated in the Romanian banking system in the period 2007-2010 and the need to identify banking risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    MEDAR LUCIAN-ION

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available The management of credit institutions must be concerned with identifying the internal and external risks of banking operations development, estimating their size and importance, assessing the possibility and imposing measures for their management. On the one hand, the identification, analysis, and mitigation of banking risks can cause reduction of inconvenient and uneconomical costs and realization of incomes with the role of shock absorber in profits reduction, and on the other hand, ignoring them can lead to loss reflected in the profit decrease, thus affecting the bank performance.

  1. Evaluating Energy Sector Investments: Calculating Volatility

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edson de Oliveira Pamplona

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available A major task in assessing risks of investment projects is defining the approach to calculating the project’s volatility. Looking at assorted estimation techniques, this paper calculates their volatilities. The techniques originate from authors in the area and involve project-specific variables of uncertainty. These techniques are applied to a case of electricity distribution through real options. Results are then compared. The difference between the calculated volatilities was low, leaving, in the case of the project evaluated here, the decision unchanged. The paper’s contribution consists of providing a detailed presentation of calculating volatility by the methods cited and by comparing the results obtained by its application.

  2. Heterogeneous Calculation of ε

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A heterogeneous method of calculating the fast fission factor given by Naudet has been applied to the Carlvik - Pershagen definition of ε. An exact calculation of the collision probabilities is included in the programme developed for the Ferranti - Mercury computer

  3. Personal Finance Calculations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Argo, Mark

    1982-01-01

    Contains explanations and examples of mathematical calculations for a secondary level course on personal finance. How to calculate total monetary cost of an item, monthly payments, different types of interest, annual percentage rates, and unit pricing is explained. (RM)

  4. Consolidated fuel shielding calculations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Irradiated fuel radiation dose rate and radiation shielding requirements are calculated using a validated ISOSHLD-II model. Comparisons are made to experimental measurements. ISOSHLD-11 calculations are documented

  5. Calculating Clearances for Manipulators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Copeland, E. L.; Peticolas, J. D.; Ray, L. D.

    1983-01-01

    Set of algorithms rapidly calculates minimum safe clearances for remote manipulators. Such calculations are used in design of trajectories for manipulators to ensure they do not accidentally strike surrounding objects. Structural parts are considered as cylindrical shells having circular plane areas for ends. Clearance calculation method offers special benefits in industrial robotics, particularly in automated machining.

  6. The Dental Trauma Internet Calculator

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gerds, Thomas Alexander; Lauridsen, Eva Fejerskov; Christensen, Søren Steno Ahrensburg;

    2012-01-01

    Background/Aim Prediction tools are increasingly used to inform patients about the future dental health outcome. Advanced statistical methods are required to arrive at unbiased predictions based on follow-up studies. Material and Methods The Internet risk calculator at the Dental Trauma Guide...... provides prognoses for teeth with traumatic injuries based on the Copenhagen trauma database: http://www.dentaltraumaguide.org The database includes 2191 traumatized permanent teeth from 1282 patients that were treated at the dental trauma unit at the University Hospital in Copenhagen (Denmark...

  7. How Do Calculators Calculate Trigonometric Functions?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Underwood, Jeremy M.; Edwards, Bruce H.

    How does your calculator quickly produce values of trigonometric functions? You might be surprised to learn that it does not use series or polynomial approximations, but rather the so-called CORDIC method. This paper will focus on the geometry of the CORDIC method, as originally developed by Volder in 1959. This algorithm is a wonderful…

  8. 基于Matlab计算的KMV模型在商业银行信用风险管理中的应用%KMV model calculations based on Matlab in Commercial Bank Credit Risk Management

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    李园

    2014-01-01

    社会经济的不断发展,金融行业也处于不断发展之中,服务范围也得到更广泛的拓展,在金融企业发展的同时也出现了一系列问题,商业银行的不断发展,过去银行风险管理的方式已经不能满足新时代银行各种风险因素的控制需求,非常有必要加强风险管理体系的构建,强化商业银行的抗风险能力,让商业银行作为一个资金交流支撑,能够更好地给发行者与投资者提供更准确的商业信息,降低银行的信用风险。本文主要分析了Matlab计算函数中的KMV模型在商业银行信用风险管理中的应用。%The social economy continues to develop,the financial sector is also growing among a wider range of services has also been expansion in the financial business development while there have been a series of problems,the continuous development of the commercial banks in the past the bank's risk management mode can not meet the needs of a new era of banking various control risk factors is necessary to strengthen the risk management system to build,strengthen anti-risk ability of commercial banks,commercial banks make money as an exchange of support,better able to give the publisher and investors provide more accurate business information,reduce the credit risk of banks.This paper analyzes the function of the Matlab computing KMV model in commercial bank credit risk management.

  9. Core calculations of JMTR

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nagao, Yoshiharu [Japan Atomic Energy Research Inst., Oarai, Ibaraki (Japan). Oarai Research Establishment

    1998-03-01

    In material testing reactors like the JMTR (Japan Material Testing Reactor) of 50 MW in Japan Atomic Energy Research Institute, the neutron flux and neutron energy spectra of irradiated samples show complex distributions. It is necessary to assess the neutron flux and neutron energy spectra of an irradiation field by carrying out the nuclear calculation of the core for every operation cycle. In order to advance core calculation, in the JMTR, the application of MCNP to the assessment of core reactivity and neutron flux and spectra has been investigated. In this study, in order to reduce the time for calculation and variance, the comparison of the results of the calculations by the use of K code and fixed source and the use of Weight Window were investigated. As to the calculation method, the modeling of the total JMTR core, the conditions for calculation and the adopted variance reduction technique are explained. The results of calculation are shown. Significant difference was not observed in the results of neutron flux calculations according to the difference of the modeling of fuel region in the calculations by K code and fixed source. The method of assessing the results of neutron flux calculation is described. (K.I.)

  10. Multidimensional Risk Analysis: MRISK

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCollum, Raymond; Brown, Douglas; O'Shea, Sarah Beth; Reith, William; Rabulan, Jennifer; Melrose, Graeme

    2015-01-01

    Multidimensional Risk (MRISK) calculates the combined multidimensional score using Mahalanobis distance. MRISK accounts for covariance between consequence dimensions, which de-conflicts the interdependencies of consequence dimensions, providing a clearer depiction of risks. Additionally, in the event the dimensions are not correlated, Mahalanobis distance reduces to Euclidean distance normalized by the variance and, therefore, represents the most flexible and optimal method to combine dimensions. MRISK is currently being used in NASA's Environmentally Responsible Aviation (ERA) project o assess risk and prioritize scarce resources.

  11. PROSPECTS OF MANAGEMENT ACCOUNTING AND COST CALCULATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marian ŢAICU

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Progress in improving production technology requires appropriate measures to achieve an efficient management of costs. This raises the need for continuous improvement of management accounting and cost calculation. Accounting information in general, and management accounting information in particular, have gained importance in the current economic conditions, which are characterized by risk and uncertainty. The future development of management accounting and cost calculation is essential to meet the information needs of management.

  12. PROSPECTS OF MANAGEMENT ACCOUNTING AND COST CALCULATION

    OpenAIRE

    Marian ŢAICU

    2014-01-01

    Progress in improving production technology requires appropriate measures to achieve an efficient management of costs. This raises the need for continuous improvement of management accounting and cost calculation. Accounting information in general, and management accounting information in particular, have gained importance in the current economic conditions, which are characterized by risk and uncertainty. The future development of management accounting and cost calculation is essential to me...

  13. Electrical installation calculations advanced

    CERN Document Server

    Kitcher, Christopher

    2013-01-01

    All the essential calculations required for advanced electrical installation workThe Electrical Installation Calculations series has proved an invaluable reference for over forty years, for both apprentices and professional electrical installation engineers alike. The book provides a step-by-step guide to the successful application of electrical installation calculations required in day-to-day electrical engineering practiceA step-by-step guide to everyday calculations used on the job An essential aid to the City & Guilds certificates at Levels 2 and 3For apprentices and electrical installatio

  14. Electronics Environmental Benefits Calculator

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — The Electronics Environmental Benefits Calculator (EEBC) was developed to assist organizations in estimating the environmental benefits of greening their purchase,...

  15. Electrical installation calculations basic

    CERN Document Server

    Kitcher, Christopher

    2013-01-01

    All the essential calculations required for basic electrical installation workThe Electrical Installation Calculations series has proved an invaluable reference for over forty years, for both apprentices and professional electrical installation engineers alike. The book provides a step-by-step guide to the successful application of electrical installation calculations required in day-to-day electrical engineering practice. A step-by-step guide to everyday calculations used on the job An essential aid to the City & Guilds certificates at Levels 2 and 3Fo

  16. Waste Package Lifting Calculation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The objective of this calculation is to evaluate the structural response of the waste package during the horizontal and vertical lifting operations in order to support the waste package lifting feature design. The scope of this calculation includes the evaluation of the 21 PWR UCF (pressurized water reactor uncanistered fuel) waste package, naval waste package, 5 DHLW/DOE SNF (defense high-level waste/Department of Energy spent nuclear fuel)--short waste package, and 44 BWR (boiling water reactor) UCF waste package. Procedure AP-3.12Q, Revision 0, ICN 0, calculations, is used to develop and document this calculation

  17. Risk management

    OpenAIRE

    McManus, John

    2009-01-01

    Few projects are completed on time, on budget, and to their original requirement or specifications. Focusing on what project managers need to know about risk in the pursuit of delivering projects, Risk Management covers key components of the risk management process and the software development process, as well as best practices for risk identification, risk planning, and risk analysis. The book examines risk planning, risk analysis responses to risk, the tracking and modelling of risks, intel...

  18. SR 97 - Radionuclide transport calculations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lindgren, Maria [Kemakta Konsult AB, Stockholm (Sweden); Lindstroem, Fredrik [Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co., Stockholm (Sweden)

    1999-12-01

    An essential component of a safety assessment is to calculate radionuclide release and dose consequences for different scenarios and cases. The SKB tools for such a quantitative assessment are used to calculate the maximum releases and doses for the hypothetical repository sites Aberg, Beberg and Ceberg for the initial canister defect scenario and also for the glacial melting case for Aberg. The reasonable cases, i.e. all parameters take reasonable values, results in maximum biosphere doses of 5x10{sup -8} Sv/yr for Aberg, 3x10{sup -8} Sv/yr for Beberg and 1x10{sup -8} Sv/yr for Ceberg for peat area. These doses lie significantly below 0.15 mSv/yr. (A dose of 0.15 mSv/yr for unit probability corresponds to the risk limit of 10{sup -5} per year for the most exposed individuals recommended in regulations.) The conclusion that the maximum risk would lie well below 10{sup -5} per year is also demonstrated by results from the probabilistic calculations, which directly assess the resulting risk by combining dose and probability estimates. The analyses indicate that the risk is 2x10{sup -5} Sv/yr for Aberg, 8x10{sup -7} Sv/yr for Beberg and 3x10{sup -8} Sv/yr for Ceberg. The analysis shows that the most important parameters in the near field are the number of defective canisters and the instant release fraction. The influence from varying one parameter never changes the doses as much as an order of magnitude. In the far field the most important uncertainties affecting release and retention are associated with permeability and connectivity of the fractures in the rock. These properties affect several parameters. Highly permeable and well connected fractures imply high groundwater fluxes and short groundwater travel times. Sparsely connected or highly variable fracture properties implies low flow wetted surface along migration paths. It should, however, be remembered that the far-field parameters have little importance if the near-field parameters take their reasonable

  19. Mobile Scientific Calculator

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammed Abdulrahim Hamdi

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available The mobile and wireless industry is entering an exciting time. Demand for mobile technology is growing at a tremendous rate. Corporations are deploying mobile applications that provide substantial business benefits, and consumers are readily adopting mobile data applications. We present scientific application for mobile phone in steps of software engineering project starting from data gathering, data analysis, designing, coding, packaging, testing and deploying, Mobile Scientific Calculator (MSC enable user to compute any mathematical operation by using this application in mobile phone without needing to use the calculator. Scientific calculator offers three keys the four mathematic operations, the four systems of digits and offering many of functions such as angles functions, power, factorial and other functions. Scientific calculator is suitable for many mobile phones which don t have scientific calculator in its applications, it provide simple design for dealing with its functions for all users. It operated on more than one mobile phone model.

  20. Credit Risk Evaluation : Modeling - Analysis - Management

    OpenAIRE

    Wehrspohn, Uwe

    2002-01-01

    An analysis and further development of the building blocks of modern credit risk management: -Definitions of default -Estimation of default probabilities -Exposures -Recovery Rates -Pricing -Concepts of portfolio dependence -Time horizons for risk calculations -Quantification of portfolio risk -Estimation of risk measures -Portfolio analysis and portfolio improvement -Evaluation and comparison of credit risk models -Analytic portfolio loss distributions The thesis contributes to the evaluatio...

  1. Studiees on quantitative risk acceptance criteria and comparative risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Two aspects of risk assessment are investigated in this report. The first deals with the comparison of selected technological risks with several proposed and augmented risk acceptance criteria. The second deals with preliminary criteria for comparative risk acceptance. It is found that values put forth for individual risk acceptance criterial appear to be at the lower end of implicitly accepted or calculated risks. Individual risk acceptance criteria based on a graded benefit scale are difficult to apply because it is difficult to determine the exact degree of benefit for each technology. Comparative risk assessment is difficult because technologies producing the same benefits often have disparate risks (i.e., range of impact, manifestation and degree of uncertainty). When the risks are not disparate, the benefits are usually quiite different. A set of preliminary criteria for comparative risk assessment are, however, proposed and discussed

  2. Presenting numerical risk estimates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Environment Agency for England and Wales has, together with the other Environment Agencies, published guidance on the requirements for authorisation for the disposal of low-level and intermediate-level radioactive waste. The guidance specifies an individual risk target for the post-closure period, and requires developers to consider collective radiological impacts. Information on how risks and impacts should be calculated or assessed has not been published. The objectives of this report are to provide background information on the calculation of risk, to review how regulatory regimes for other activities and in other countries use risk criteria, including both individual and societal risk criteria. Conclusions and recommendations are presented on how the Environment Agency might develop additional guidance to ensure that safety cases meet the Agency's requirements

  3. Collection of CASIM calculations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Monte Carlo calculations of hadronic cascades at Fermilab have usually been done using the code CASIM written by A. Van Ginneken. These calculations are often performed to determine the quantity of shielding required for radiation protection purposes. A number of examples of such calculations have been presented previously. Several years of practical experience have led the author to develop the collection of additional cases included in the present report. These results along with those given earlier will serve as a useful reference. No attempt was made here to consider all possibilities; rather, the purpose was to develop a useful set of examples. Exceptionally intricate cases should, of course, receive individualized attention as appropriate

  4. Large scale GW calculations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    We present GW calculations of molecules, ordered and disordered solids and interfaces, which employ an efficient contour deformation technique for frequency integration and do not require the explicit evaluation of virtual electronic states nor the inversion of dielectric matrices. We also present a parallel implementation of the algorithm, which takes advantage of separable expressions of both the single particle Green's function and the screened Coulomb interaction. The method can be used starting from density functional theory calculations performed with semilocal or hybrid functionals. The newly developed technique was applied to GW calculations of systems of unprecedented size, including water/semiconductor interfaces with thousands of electrons

  5. Radioactive cloud dose calculations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Radiological dosage principles, as well as methods for calculating external and internal dose rates, following dispersion and deposition of radioactive materials in the atmosphere are described. Emphasis has been placed on analytical solutions that are appropriate for hand calculations. In addition, the methods for calculating dose rates from ingestion are discussed. A brief description of several computer programs are included for information on radionuclides. There has been no attempt to be comprehensive, and only a sampling of programs has been selected to illustrate the variety available

  6. Geogebra: Calculation of Centroid

    OpenAIRE

    Qamil Kllogjeri; Pellumb Kllogjeri

    2012-01-01

    Our paper is result of the research done in a special direction for solving problems of physics by using GeoGebra programme: calculation of centroid. Lots of simulations of physical phenomena from the class of Mechanics can be performed and computational problems can be solved with GeoGebra. GeoGebra offers many commands and one of them is the command “centroid” to calculate the coordinates of the centroid of a polygon but, we have created a new tool to calculate the coordinates of the centr...

  7. nuclear reactor design calculations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In this work , the sensitivity of different reactor calculation methods, and the effect of different assumptions and/or approximation are evaluated . A new concept named error map is developed to determine the relative importance of different factors affecting the accuracy of calculations. To achieve this goal a generalized, multigroup, multi dimension code UAR-DEPLETION is developed to calculate the spatial distribution of neutron flux, effective multiplication factor and the spatial composition of a reactor core for a period of time and for specified reactor operating conditions. The code also investigates the fuel management strategies and policies for the entire fuel cycle to meet the constraints of material and operating limitations

  8. Quantifizierung des perioperativen Risikos [Quantifications of perioperative risk

    OpenAIRE

    Ohmann, C; Lorenz, Wilfried

    1987-01-01

    In this paper standardized and quantitative definitions of perioperative risk and risk factor using probabilities are given. A calculation of risk and risk factors is performed using data from a study on perioperative risk in colon resection and a study on a preoperative risk check in general surgery. The problem of one risk factor, a combination of two risk factors and the use of many risk factors to quantify preoperative risk is discussed. Confidence intervals are recommended as a standard ...

  9. State of risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In view of the growing importance assumed in recent years by scientific work on the calculation, quantification, evaluation and acceptance as well as behavior in the face of risks in general and more specifically, the risks of large industrial plants, the report attempts to provide a survey of the current situation, results and evaluation of this new branch of research, risk assessment. The emphasis of the report is on the basic discussion and criticism of the theoretical and methodological approaches used in the field of risk assessment (section 3). It is concerned above all with - methodical problems of determining and quantifying risks (3.1) - questions of the possibility of risk evaluation and comp arison (3.1, 3.2) - the premises of normative and empirical studies on decision making under risk (3.2, 3.3) - investigations into society's acceptance of risks involved in the introduction of new technologies (3.4) - attempts to combine various aspects of the field of risk assessment in a unified concept (3.5, 3.6, 3.7). Because risk assessment is embedded in the framework of decision theory and technology assessment, it can be implicitly evaluated at a more general level within this framework, as far as its possibilities and weaknesses of method and application are concerned (section 4). Sections 2 and 5 deal with the social context of origin and utilization of risk assessment. Finally, an attempt is made at a summary indicating the possible future development of risk assessment. (orig./HP)

  10. A Simple Calculator Algorithm.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cook, Lyle; McWilliam, James

    1983-01-01

    The problem of finding cube roots when limited to a calculator with only square root capability is discussed. An algorithm is demonstrated and explained which should always produce a good approximation within a few iterations. (MP)

  11. Calculativeness and trust

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frederiksen, Morten

    2014-01-01

    Williamson’s characterisation of calculativeness as inimical to trust contradicts most sociological trust research. However, a similar argument is found within trust phenomenology. This paper re-investigates Williamson’s argument from the perspective of Løgstrup’s phenomenological theory of trust....... Contrary to Williamson, however, Løgstrup’s contention is that trust, not calculativeness, is the default attitude and only when suspicion is awoken does trust falter. The paper argues that while Williamson’s distinction between calculativeness and trust is supported by phenomenology, the analysis needs to...... take actual subjective experience into consideration. It points out that, first, Løgstrup places trust alongside calculativeness as a different mode of engaging in social interaction, rather conceiving of trust as a state or the outcome of a decision-making process. Secondly, the analysis must take...

  12. Handout on shielding calculation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In order to avoid the difficulties of the radioprotection supervisors in the tasks related to shielding calculations, is presented in this paper the basic concepts of shielding theory. It also includes exercises and examples. (author)

  13. IRIS core criticality calculations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Three-dimensional Monte Carlo computer code KENO-VI of CSAS26 sequence of SCALE-4.4 code system was applied for pin-by-pin calculations of the effective multiplication factor for the first cycle IRIS reactor core. The effective multiplication factors obtained by the above mentioned Monte Carlo calculations using 27-group ENDF/B-IV library and 238-group ENDF/B-V library have been compared with the effective multiplication factors achieved by HELIOS/NESTLE, CASMO/SIMULATE, and modified CORD-2 nodal calculations. The results of Monte Carlo calculations are found to be in good agreement with the results obtained by the nodal codes. The discrepancies in effective multiplication factor are typically within 1%. (author)

  14. Unit Cost Compendium Calculations

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — The Unit Cost Compendium (UCC) Calculations raw data set was designed to provide for greater accuracy and consistency in the use of unit costs across the USEPA...

  15. Shielding calculations for SSC

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Monte Carlo calculations of hadron and muon shielding for SSC are reviewed with emphasis on their application to radiation safety and environmental protection. Models and algorithms for simulation of hadronic and electromagnetic showers, and for production and transport of muons in the TeV regime are briefly discussed. Capabilities and limitations of these calculations are described and illustrated with a few examples. 12 refs., 3 figs

  16. Current interruption transients calculation

    CERN Document Server

    Peelo, David F

    2014-01-01

    Provides an original, detailed and practical description of current interruption transients, origins, and the circuits involved, and how they can be calculated Current Interruption Transients Calculationis a comprehensive resource for the understanding, calculation and analysis of the transient recovery voltages (TRVs) and related re-ignition or re-striking transients associated with fault current interruption and the switching of inductive and capacitive load currents in circuits. This book provides an original, detailed and practical description of current interruption transients, origins,

  17. Reactor lattice transport calculations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The present lecture is a continuation of the lecture on Introduction to the Neutron Transport Phenomena. It comprises three aspects of lattice calculations. First the idea of a reactor lattice is introduced. Then the main definitions used in reactor lattice analysis are given, and finally two basic methods applied for solution of the transport equations are defined. Several remarks on secondary results from lattice transport calculations are added. (author)

  18. Electrical installation calculations

    CERN Document Server

    Watkins, AJ

    2006-01-01

    Designed to provide a step by step guide to successful application of the electrical installation calculations required in day to day electrical engineering practice, the Electrical Installation Calculations series has proved an invaluable reference for over forty years, for both apprentices and professional electrical installation engineers alike.Now in its seventh edition, Volume 1 has been fully updated to meet the requirements of the 2330 Level 2 Certificate in Electrotechnical Technology from City & Guilds, and will also prove a vi

  19. Geometric unsharpness calculations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Anderson, D.J. [International Training and Education Group (INTEG), Oakville, Ontario (Canada)

    2008-07-15

    The majority of radiographers' geometric unsharpness calculations are normally performed with a mathematical formula. However, a majority of codes and standards refer to the use of a nomograph for this calculation. Upon first review, the use of a nomograph appears more complicated but with a few minutes of study and practice it can be just as effective. A review of this article should provide enlightenment. (author)

  20. Risk Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, Lloyd

    1998-01-01

    This presentation focuses on the identification of risk management, risk management processes such as: quantification and prioritization; mitigation planning; implementation of risk reduction; and tracking process. It develops examples and answers questions about Risk Management.

  1. Risk measures

    OpenAIRE

    Albrecht, Peter

    2003-01-01

    The present review of (financial) risk measures, prepared for the Encyclopaedia of Actuarial Science, first distinguishes two conceptions of risk. Risk of the first kind conceives risk as the magnitude of (one- or two-sided) deviations from a target, whereas risk of the second kind conceives risk as necessary capital or necessary premium, respectively. Some important axiomatic characterizations of risk measures are reviewed, including a characterization of a correspondence between risk measur...

  2. Risk management

    OpenAIRE

    Michler, Luboš

    2011-01-01

    This thesis deals with the management of business risks. The thesis is divided into two main parts. The first is the literature search and the second is analysis itself. In the first part there is described and defined the very notion of risk, further the theoretical knowledge of the authors dealing with risk management is processed, risk classification, followed by their analysis, methods of risk analysis, risk management, methods of reducing business risk and significance of the risk facto...

  3. Risk Management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Randal, L. Nathan

    This chapter of "Principles of School Business Management" presents an overview of risk management for school districts. The chapter first discusses four fundamental elements of risk management: (1) identifying and measuring risks; (2) reducing or eliminating risks; (3) transferring unassumable risks; and (4) assuming remaining risks. The chapter…

  4. Uncertainty calculations made easier

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hogenbirk, A.

    1994-07-01

    The results are presented of a neutron cross section sensitivity/uncertainty analysis performed in a complicated 2D model of the NET shielding blanket design inside the ITER torus design, surrounded by the cryostat/biological shield as planned for ITER. The calculations were performed with a code system developed at ECN Petten, with which sensitivity/uncertainty calculations become relatively simple. In order to check the deterministic neutron transport calculations (performed with DORT), calculations were also performed with the Monte Carlo code MCNP. Care was taken to model the 2.0 cm wide gaps between two blanket segments, as the neutron flux behind the vacuum vessel is largely determined by neutrons streaming through these gaps. The resulting neutron flux spectra are in excellent agreement up to the end of the cryostat. It is noted, that at this position the attenuation of the neutron flux is about 1 l orders of magnitude. The uncertainty in the energy integrated flux at the beginning of the vacuum vessel and at the beginning of the cryostat was determined in the calculations. The uncertainty appears to be strongly dependent on the exact geometry: if the gaps are filled with stainless steel, the neutron spectrum changes strongly, which results in an uncertainty of 70% in the energy integrated flux at the beginning of the cryostat in the no-gap-geometry, compared to an uncertainty of only 5% in the gap-geometry. Therefore, it is essential to take into account the exact geometry in sensitivity/uncertainty calculations. Furthermore, this study shows that an improvement of the covariance data is urgently needed in order to obtain reliable estimates of the uncertainties in response parameters in neutron transport calculations. (orig./GL).

  5. Uncertainty calculations made easier

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The results are presented of a neutron cross section sensitivity/uncertainty analysis performed in a complicated 2D model of the NET shielding blanket design inside the ITER torus design, surrounded by the cryostat/biological shield as planned for ITER. The calculations were performed with a code system developed at ECN Petten, with which sensitivity/uncertainty calculations become relatively simple. In order to check the deterministic neutron transport calculations (performed with DORT), calculations were also performed with the Monte Carlo code MCNP. Care was taken to model the 2.0 cm wide gaps between two blanket segments, as the neutron flux behind the vacuum vessel is largely determined by neutrons streaming through these gaps. The resulting neutron flux spectra are in excellent agreement up to the end of the cryostat. It is noted, that at this position the attenuation of the neutron flux is about 1 l orders of magnitude. The uncertainty in the energy integrated flux at the beginning of the vacuum vessel and at the beginning of the cryostat was determined in the calculations. The uncertainty appears to be strongly dependent on the exact geometry: if the gaps are filled with stainless steel, the neutron spectrum changes strongly, which results in an uncertainty of 70% in the energy integrated flux at the beginning of the cryostat in the no-gap-geometry, compared to an uncertainty of only 5% in the gap-geometry. Therefore, it is essential to take into account the exact geometry in sensitivity/uncertainty calculations. Furthermore, this study shows that an improvement of the covariance data is urgently needed in order to obtain reliable estimates of the uncertainties in response parameters in neutron transport calculations. (orig./GL)

  6. Mammography and radiation risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Breast cancer is the most frequent malignant neoplasia among women in Germany. The use of mammography as the most relevant diagnostic procedure has increased rapidly over the last decade. Radiation risks associated with mammography may be estimated from the results of numerous epidemiological studies providing risk coefficients for breast cancer in relation to age at exposure. Various calculations can be performed using the risk coefficients. For instance, a single mammography examination (bilateral, two views of each breast) of a women aged 45 may enhance the risk of developing breast cancer during her lifetime numerically from about 12% of 12.0036%. This increase in risk is lower by a factor of 3,300 as compared to the risk of developing breast cancer in the absence of radiation exposure. At the age of 40 or more, the benefit of mammography exceeds the radiation risk by a factor of about 100. At higher ages this factor increases further. Finally, the dualism of individual risk and collective risk is considered. It is shown that the individual risk of a patient, even after multiple mammography examinations, is vanishingly small. Nevertheless, the basic principle of minimising radiation exposure must be followed to keep the collective risk in the total population as low as reasonably achievable. (orig.)

  7. Mathematics, Pricing, Market Risk Management and Trading Strategies for Financial Derivatives (2/3)

    CERN Document Server

    CERN. Geneva; Coffey, Brian

    2009-01-01

    Market Trading and Risk Management of Vanilla FX Options - Measures of Market Risk - Implied Volatility - FX Risk Reversals, FX Strangles - Valuation and Risk Calculations - Risk Management - Market Trading Strategies

  8. Progress on theoretical calculation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The calculation program NPPD-2 of neutron reaction data in the energy region from 10-11 to 20 MeV has been researched with extending the energy from 5 to 20 MeV. In this program, the cascade γ-de-excitations of the compound nucleus and residual nucleus are described by means of the Troubetzkoy's statistical model and the conservation relations of angular momentum and parity are are considered. This program may be used for the calculations of the natural element, with the number of isotopes less than 10. The program has been finished and the calculations for oxygen are being done in order to test the program. The reaction channels in n + 40Ca, which considered in NPPD-2, are presented

  9. Daylight calculations in practice

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Iversen, Anne; Roy, Nicolas; Hvass, Mette;

    The aim of the project was to obtain a better understanding of what daylight calculations show and also to gain knowledge of how the different daylight simulation programs perform compared with each other. Experience has shown that results for the same room, obtained from two daylight simulation...... programs can give different results. This can be due to restrictions in the program itself and/or be due to the skills of the persons setting up the models. This is crucial as daylight calculations are used to document that the demands and recommendations to daylight levels outlined by building authorities....... The aim of the project was to obtain a better understanding of what daylight calculations show and also to gain knowledge of how the different daylight simulation programs perform compared with each other. Furthermore the aim was to provide knowledge of how to build up the 3D models that were to be...

  10. Geogebra: Calculation of Centroid

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qamil Kllogjeri

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Our paper is result of the research done in a special direction for solving problems of physics by using GeoGebra programme: calculation of centroid. Lots of simulations of physical phenomena from the class of Mechanics can be performed and computational problems can be solved with GeoGebra. GeoGebra offers many commands and one of them is the command “centroid” to calculate the coordinates of the centroid of a polygon but, we have created a new tool to calculate the coordinates of the centroid of a plane region bounded by curves. Our work is part of the passionate work of many GeoGebra users which will result with a very rich fund of GeoGebra virtual tools, examples and experiences that will be worldwidely available for many teachers and practioners.

  11. Population dose calculation technique

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    An original method is suggested for calculating the population doses from gas and aerosol radioactive releases. The method is based on the assumption of uniform population and arable land distribution. The validity of this assumption has been proved for a rather large condition range. Though, some modified formulae are given to take into account the non-uniformity of population distribution, connected with large cities, on the one hand, and with woods, shores, regional borders, on the other hand. Employment of the suggested method results in an apriciable calculation accuracy rise for the long-living slowly precipitating radionuclides as compared with the existing methods

  12. Big Bang Nucleosynthesis Calculation

    CERN Document Server

    Kurki-Suonio, H

    2001-01-01

    I review standard big bang nucleosynthesis and some versions of nonstandard BBN. The abundances of the primordial isotopes D, He-3, and Li-7 produced in standard BBN can be calculated as a function of the baryon density with an accuracy of about 10%. For He-4 the accuracy is better than 1%. The calculated abundances agree fairly well with observations, but the baryon density of the universe cannot be determined with high precision. Possibilities for nonstandard BBN include inhomogeneous and antimatter BBN and nonzero neutrino chemical potentials.

  13. Electrical installation calculations

    CERN Document Server

    Watkins, AJ

    2006-01-01

    Designed to provide a step by step guide to successful application of the electrical installation calculations required in day to day electrical engineering practice, the Electrical Installation Calculations series has proved an invaluable reference for over forty years, for both Foundation and Modern Apprentices, and professional electrical installation engineers alike.Now in its sixth edition, Volume 2 has been fully updated to meet the requirements of the 2330 Level 3 Certificate in Electrotechnical Technology from City & Guilds, and will also prove a vital purchase for students of Level 3

  14. SUSY Calculation Tools

    CERN Document Server

    Djouadi, Abdelhak

    2002-01-01

    I discuss the various available tools for the study of the properties of the new particles predicted in the Minimal Supersymmetric extension of the Standard Model. Emphasis will be put on the codes for the determination of the sparticle and Higgs boson spectrum. Codes for the calculation of production cross sections, decay widths and branching ratios, Dark Matter relic density and detection rates, as well as codes for automatic analytical calculations and Monte-Carlo event generators for Supersymmetric processes will be briefly discussed.

  15. Three recent TDHF calculations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Three applications of TDHF are discussed. First, vibrational spectra of a post grazing collision 40Ca nucleus is examined and found to contain many high energy components, qualitatively consistent with recent Orsay experiments. Second, the fusion cross section in energy and angular momentum are calculated for 16O + 24Mg to exhibit the parameters of the low l window for this system. A sensitivity of the fusion cross section to the effective two body potential is discussed. Last, a preliminary analysis of 86Kr + 139La at E/sub lab/ = 505 MeV calculated in the frozen approximation is displayed, compared to experiment and discussed

  16. Sample Size Calculations

    OpenAIRE

    Noordzij, Marlies; Dekker, Friedo W.; Zoccali, Carmine; Jager, Kitty J.

    2011-01-01

    The sample size is the number of patients or other experimental units that need to be included in a study to answer the research question. Pre-study calculation of the sample size is important; if a sample size is too small, one will not be able to detect an effect, while a sample that is too large may be a waste of time and money. Methods to calculate the sample size are explained in statistical textbooks, but because there are many different formulas available, it can be difficult for inves...

  17. Identification of the high risk emergency surgical patient: Which risk prediction model should be used?

    OpenAIRE

    Stephen Stonelake; Peter Thomson; Nigel Suggett

    2015-01-01

    Introduction: National guidance states that all patients having emergency surgery should have a mortality risk assessment calculated on admission so that the ‘high risk’ patient can receive the appropriate seniority and level of care. We aimed to assess if peri-operative risk scoring tools could accurately calculate mortality and morbidity risk. Methods: Mortality risk scores for 86 consecutive emergency laparotomies, were calculated using pre-operative (ASA, Lee index) and post-operative ...

  18. Risk Management

    OpenAIRE

    Philippe Jorion

    2010-01-01

    Modern risk management systems were developed in the early 1990s to provide centralized risk measures at the top level of financial institutions. These are based on a century of theoretical developments in risk measures. In particular, value at risk (VAR) has become widely used as a statistical measure of market risk based on current positions. This methodology has been extended to credit risk and operational risk. This article reviews the benefits and limitations of these models. In spite of...

  19. Dynamics Calculation of Spoke

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2011-01-01

    Compared with ellipse cavity, the spoke cavity has many advantages, especially for the low and medium beam energy. It will be used in the superconductor accelerator popular in the future. Based on the spoke cavity, we design and calculate an accelerator

  20. Water vapor pressure calculation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hall, J R; Brouillard, R G

    1985-06-01

    Accurate calculation of water vapor pressure for systems saturated with water vapor can be performed using the Goff-Gratch equation. A form of the equation that can be adapted for computer programming and for use in electronic databases is provided. PMID:4008425

  1. Languages for structural calculations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The differences between human and computing languages are recalled. It is argued that they are to some extent structured in antagonistic ways. Languages in structural calculation, in the past, present, and future, are considered. The contribution of artificial intelligence is stressed

  2. Calendrical Calculation and Intelligence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Connor, Neil; Cowan, Richard; Samella, Katerina

    2000-01-01

    Studied the ability to name the days of the week for dates in the past and future (calendrical calculation) of 10 calendrical savants with Wechlser Adult Intelligence Scale scores from 50 to 97. Results suggest that although low intelligence does not prevent the development of this skill, the talent depends on general intelligence. (SLD)

  3. Risk Theory and Reinsurance

    OpenAIRE

    Griselda Deelstra; Guillaume Plantin

    2014-01-01

    Reinsurance is an important production factor of non-life insurance. The efficiency and the capacity of the reinsurance market directly regulate those of insurance markets. The purpose of this book is to provide a concise introduction to risk theory, as well as to its main application procedures to reinsurance. The first part of the book covers risk theory. It presents the most prevalent model of ruin theory, as well as a discussion on insurance premium calculation principles and the mathemat...

  4. Risk Theory and Reinsurance

    OpenAIRE

    Deelstra, Griselda; Plantin, Guillaume

    2014-01-01

    Reinsurance is an important production factor of non-life insurance. The efficiency and the capacity of the reinsurance market directly regulate those of insurance markets. The purpose of this book is to provide a concise introduction to risk theory, as well as to its main application procedures to reinsurance. The first part of the book covers risk theory. It presents the most prevalent model of ruin theory, as well as a discussion on insurance premium calculation principles and the math...

  5. GAR Global Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maskrey, Andrew; Safaie, Sahar

    2015-04-01

    Disaster risk management strategies, policies and actions need to be based on evidence of current disaster loss and risk patterns, past trends and future projections, and underlying risk factors. Faced with competing demands for resources, at any level it is only possible to priorities a range of disaster risk management strategies and investments with adequate understanding of realised losses, current and future risk levels and impacts on economic growth and social wellbeing as well as cost and impact of the strategy. The mapping and understanding of the global risk landscape has been greatly enhanced by the latest iteration of the GAR Global Risk Assessment and the objective of this submission is to present the GAR global risk assessment which contributed to Global Assessment Report (GAR) 2015. This initiative which has been led by UNISDR, was conducted by a consortium of technical institutions from around the world and has covered earthquake, cyclone, riverine flood, and tsunami probabilistic risk for all countries of the world. In addition, the risks associated with volcanic ash in the Asia-Pacific region, drought in various countries in sub-Saharan Africa and climate change in a number of countries have been calculated. The presentation will share thee results as well as the experience including the challenges faced in technical elements as well as the process and recommendations for the future of such endeavour.

  6. Risk of energy production

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Every human activity involves risk of accident or disease. Generation of energy is no exception. Although such risk has been considered for conventional systems (coal, oil and nuclear), a similar analysis for the so-called alternative or non-conventional systems (solar, wind, ocean thermal and methanol) has been lacking. This paper presents an evaluation of the risk, both occupational and to the public, of non-conventional energy systems. They are considered both in absolute terms and in relation to conventional systems. The risk of most non-conventional systems, per unit of energy output, is comparable to, and in some cases much higher than, the risk from coal and oil. This conclusion holds whether we consider deaths or injuries. Nuclear power and natural gas had the lowest overall risk of the ten technologies considered. Ocean thermal energy ranked third. The surprising result is that the other seven technologies considered were found to be up to 100 times less safe. The total risk is calculated by considering six components: material acquisition and construction, emissions caused by material production, operation and maintenance, energy back-up, energy storage, and transportation. In this way the risk of widely different systems can be fairly assessed. This methodology of 'risk accounting' will not tell us which energy technology to use. However, it can be employed to inform society of the risk inherent in competing energy systems. (author)

  7. Risk Appetite and Endogenous Risk

    OpenAIRE

    Jean-Pierre Zigrand; Hyun Song Shin; Jon Danielsson

    2010-01-01

    Risk is endogenous. Equilibrium risk is the fixed point of the mapping that takes perceived risk to actual risk. When risk-neutral traders operate under Value-at-Risk constraints, market conditions exhibit signs of fluctuating risk appetite and amplification of shocks through feedback effects. Correlations in returns emerge even when underlying fundamental shocks are independent. We derive a closedform solution of equilibrium returns, correlation and volatility by solving the fixed point prob...

  8. PIC: Protein Interactions Calculator

    OpenAIRE

    Tina, KG; Bhadra, R.; Srinivasan, N.

    2007-01-01

    Interactions within a protein structure and interactions between proteins in an assembly are essential considerations in understanding molecular basis of stability and functions of proteins and their complexes. There are several weak and strong interactions that render stability to a protein structure or an assembly. Protein Interactions Calculator (PIC) is a server which, given the coordinate set of 3D structure of a protein or an assembly, computes various interactions such as disulphide bo...

  9. Calculation of source terms for NUREG-1150

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The source terms estimated for NUREG-1150 are generally based on the Source Term Code Package (STCP), but the actual source term calculations used in computing risk are performed by much smaller codes which are specific to each plant. This was done because the method of estimating the uncertainty in risk for NUREG-1150 requires hundreds of source term calculations for each accident sequence. This is clearly impossible with a large, detailed code like the STCP. The small plant-specific codes are based on simple algorithms and utilize adjustable parameters. The values of the parameters appearing in these codes are derived from the available STCP results. To determine the uncertainty in the estimation of the source terms, these parameters were varied as specified by an expert review group. This method was used to account for the uncertainties in the STCP results and the uncertainties in phenomena not considered by the STCP

  10. Risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The report is in sections, entitled: preface; summary and conclusions; introduction (historical and organizational); estimating engineering risks (techniques of risk estimation and forms of expression of risk); laboratory experiments for estimation of biological risks; estimation of risk from observations on man (travel, medical procedures; occupations; sport); the perception of risks; (as an example of attitudes towards a single hazard, studies of nuclear power are considered among other topics in this section); risk management (estimation; perception; acceptability, analysis of risk, costs and benefits; safety standards; decision-making process; possible guidelines). (U.K.)

  11. Mapping of nitrogen risks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Blicher-Mathiesen, Gitte; Andersen, Hans Estrup; Carstensen, Jacob;

    2014-01-01

    . In the N risk mapping part of the tool, we combined a modelled root zone N leaching with a catchment-specific N reduction factor which in combination determines the N load to the marine recipient. N leaching was calculated using detailed information of agricultural management from national databases...... be more effective if they are implemented in N loss hot spots or risk areas. Additionally, the highly variable N reduction in groundwater and surface waters needs to be taken into account as this strongly influences the resulting effect of mitigation measures. The objectives of this study were to...... develop and apply an N risk tool to the entire agricultural land area in Denmark. The purpose of the tool is to identify high risk areas, i.e. areas which contribute disproportionately much to diffuse N losses to the marine recipient, and to suggest cost-effective measures to reduce losses from risk areas...

  12. Exploration Health Risks: Probabilistic Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rhatigan, Jennifer; Charles, John; Hayes, Judith; Wren, Kiley

    2006-01-01

    Maintenance of human health on long-duration exploration missions is a primary challenge to mission designers. Indeed, human health risks are currently the largest risk contributors to the risks of evacuation or loss of the crew on long-duration International Space Station missions. We describe a quantitative assessment of the relative probabilities of occurrence of the individual risks to human safety and efficiency during space flight to augment qualitative assessments used in this field to date. Quantitative probabilistic risk assessments will allow program managers to focus resources on those human health risks most likely to occur with undesirable consequences. Truly quantitative assessments are common, even expected, in the engineering and actuarial spheres, but that capability is just emerging in some arenas of life sciences research, such as identifying and minimize the hazards to astronauts during future space exploration missions. Our expectation is that these results can be used to inform NASA mission design trade studies in the near future with the objective of preventing the higher among the human health risks. We identify and discuss statistical techniques to provide this risk quantification based on relevant sets of astronaut biomedical data from short and long duration space flights as well as relevant analog populations. We outline critical assumptions made in the calculations and discuss the rationale for these. Our efforts to date have focussed on quantifying the probabilities of medical risks that are qualitatively perceived as relatively high risks of radiation sickness, cardiac dysrhythmias, medically significant renal stone formation due to increased calcium mobilization, decompression sickness as a result of EVA (extravehicular activity), and bone fracture due to loss of bone mineral density. We present these quantitative probabilities in order-of-magnitude comparison format so that relative risk can be gauged. We address the effects of

  13. Differences in absorbed doses at risk organs and target tumoral of planning(PTV) in lung treatments using two algorithms of different calculations; Diferencias en las dosis absorbidas en organos de riesgo y volumen tumoral de planificacion (PTV) en tratamientos de pulmon usando dos algoritmos de calculo diferentes: pencil beam y collpased cone

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Uruena Llinares, A.; Santos Rubio, A.; Luis Simon, F. J.; Sanchez Carmona, G.; Herrador Cordoba, M.

    2006-07-01

    The objective of this paper is to compare, in thirty treatments for lung cancer,the absorbed doses at risk organs and target volumes obtained between the two used algorithms of calculation of our treatment planning system Oncentra Masterplan, that is, Pencil Beams vs Collapsed Cone. For it we use a set of measured indicators (D1 and D99 of tumor volume, V20 of lung, homogeneity index defined as (D5-D95)/D prescribed, and others). Analysing the dta, making a descriptor analysis of the results, and applying the non parametric test of the ranks with sign of Wilcoxon we find that the use of Pencil Beam algorithm underestimates the dose in the zone of the PTV including regions of low density as well as the values of maximum dose in spine cord. So, we conclude that in those treatments in which the spine dose is near the maximum permissible limit or those in which the PTV it includes a zone with pulmonary tissue must be used the Collapse Cone algorithm systematically and in any case an analysis must become to choose between time and precision in the calculation for both algorithms. (Authors)

  14. Calculations in furnace technology

    CERN Document Server

    Davies, Clive; Hopkins, DW; Owen, WS

    2013-01-01

    Calculations in Furnace Technology presents the theoretical and practical aspects of furnace technology. This book provides information pertinent to the development, application, and efficiency of furnace technology. Organized into eight chapters, this book begins with an overview of the exothermic reactions that occur when carbon, hydrogen, and sulfur are burned to release the energy available in the fuel. This text then evaluates the efficiencies to measure the quantity of fuel used, of flue gases leaving the plant, of air entering, and the heat lost to the surroundings. Other chapters consi

  15. Zero Temperature Hope Calculations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The primary purpose of the HOPE code is to calculate opacities over a wide temperature and density range. It can also produce equation of state (EOS) data. Since the experimental data at the high temperature region are scarce, comparisons of predictions with the ample zero temperature data provide a valuable physics check of the code. In this report we show a selected few examples across the periodic table. Below we give a brief general information about the physics of the HOPE code. The HOPE code is an ''average atom'' (AA) Dirac-Slater self-consistent code. The AA label in the case of finite temperature means that the one-electron levels are populated according to the Fermi statistics, at zero temperature it means that the ''aufbau'' principle works, i.e. no a priory electronic configuration is set, although it can be done. As such, it is a one-particle model (any Hartree-Fock model is a one particle model). The code is an ''ion-sphere'' model, meaning that the atom under investigation is neutral within the ion-sphere radius. Furthermore, the boundary conditions for the bound states are also set at the ion-sphere radius, which distinguishes the code from the INFERNO, OPAL and STA codes. Once the self-consistent AA state is obtained, the code proceeds to generate many-electron configurations and proceeds to calculate photoabsorption in the ''detailed configuration accounting'' (DCA) scheme. However, this last feature is meaningless at zero temperature. There is one important feature in the HOPE code which should be noted; any self-consistent model is self-consistent in the space of the occupied orbitals. The unoccupied orbitals, where electrons are lifted via photoexcitation, are unphysical. The rigorous way to deal with that problem is to carry out complete self-consistent calculations both in the initial and final states connecting photoexcitations, an enormous computational task. The Amaldi correction is an attempt to address this problem by distorting the

  16. Linewidth calculations and simulations

    CERN Document Server

    Strandberg, Ingrid

    2016-01-01

    We are currently developing a new technique to further enhance the sensitivity of collinear laser spectroscopy in order to study the most exotic nuclides available at radioactive ion beam facilities, such as ISOLDE at CERN. The overall goal is to evaluate the feasibility of the new method. This report will focus on the determination of the expected linewidth (hence resolution) of this approach. Different effects which could lead to a broadening of the linewidth, e.g. the ions' energy spread and their trajectories inside the trap, are studied with theoretical calculations as well as simulations.

  17. Matlab numerical calculations

    CERN Document Server

    Lopez, Cesar

    2015-01-01

    MATLAB is a high-level language and environment for numerical computation, visualization, and programming. Using MATLAB, you can analyze data, develop algorithms, and create models and applications. The language, tools, and built-in math functions enable you to explore multiple approaches and reach a solution faster than with spreadsheets or traditional programming languages, such as C/C++ or Java. This book is designed for use as a scientific/business calculator so that you can get numerical solutions to problems involving a wide array of mathematics using MATLAB. Just look up the function y

  18. Core physics calculations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In this paper, excerpts of the 'Core Design', 'Computational Chains' and 'Qualification of Computational Chains' lectures are presented. Nuclear reactor design basic concepts as power distribution and reactivity are defined and analyzed both from the theoretical and the computational point of view. Emphasis is put on the physical meaning and sensitivity of both 'observables' to design parameters. Computational aspects, mainly as regards the effects of the heterogeneity in space and energy in reactor calculations, are afforded too. Structure and qualification of computational code packages are discussed and a practical application to the FRAMATOME SCIENCE advanced computational chain is supplied. (author)

  19. Deep penetration calculations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Several Monte Carlo techniques are compared in the transport of neutrons of different source energies through two different deep-penetration problems each with two parts. The first problem involves transmission through a 200-cm concrete slab. The second problem is a 900 bent pipe jacketed by concrete. In one case the pipe is void, and in the other it is filled with liquid sodium. Calculations are made with two different Los Alamos Monte Carlo codes: the continuous-energy code MCNP and the multigroup code MCMG

  20. Managing market risk with VaR (Value At Risk)

    OpenAIRE

    Angelovska, Julijana

    2013-01-01

    Market risk estimates the uncertainty of future earnings, due to the changes in market conditions. Value at Risk has become the standard measure that financial analysts use to quantify market risk. For estimating risk, the issue is that different ways to estimate volatility can lead to very different VaR calculations. The performance of SMA with rolling windows of 100 and EWMA using 0.94 (proposed by RiskMetrics) as smoothing constant λ and rolling window of 100 days, perhaps the most widely ...

  1. Risk perception and risk management

    OpenAIRE

    Renn, Ortwin

    1989-01-01

    While experts confine the term risk to a combination of magnitude and probability of adverse effects, laypersons associate with risk a variety of criteria, such as voluntariness, possibility of personal control, familiarity, and others. The better our knowledge about the risk perception processes, the more we are able to improve our risk management skills. Responsive and rational approaches to risk management should include the results of risk perception studies in two ways: First, management...

  2. 42 CFR 422.264 - Calculation of savings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 42 Public Health 3 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Calculation of savings. 422.264 Section 422.264 Public Health CENTERS FOR MEDICARE & MEDICAID SERVICES, DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES... and Plan Approval § 422.264 Calculation of savings. (a) Computation of risk adjusted bids...

  3. Configuration space Faddeev calculations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The detailed study of few-body systems provides one of the most effective means for studying nuclear physics at subnucleon distance scales. For few-body systems the model equations can be solved numerically with errors less than the experimental uncertainties. We have used such systems to investigate the size of relativistic effects, the role of meson-exchange currents, and the importance of quark degrees of freedom in the nucleus. Complete calculations for momentum-dependent potentials have been performed, and the properties of the three-body bound state for these potentials have been studied. Few-body calculations of the electromagnetic form factors of the deuteron and pion have been carried out using a front-form formulation of relativistic quantum mechanics. The decomposition of the operators transforming convariantly under the Poincare group into kinematical and dynamical parts has been studies. New ways for constructing interactions between particles, as well as interactions which lead to the production of particles, have been constructed in the context of a relativistic quantum mechanics. To compute scattering amplitudes in a nonperturbative way, classes of operators have been generated out of which the phase operator may be constructed. Finally, we have worked out procedures for computing Clebsch-Gordan and Racah coefficients on a computer, as well as giving procedures for dealing with the multiplicity problem

  4. Weldon Spring dose calculations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In response to a request by the Oak Ridge Operations (ORO) Office of the Department of Energy (DOE) for assistance to the Department of the Army (DA) on the decommissioning of the Weldon Spring Chemical Plant, the Health and Safety Research Division of the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) performed limited dose assessment calculations for that site. Based upon radiological measurements from a number of soil samples analyzed by ORNL and from previously acquired radiological data for the Weldon Spring site, source terms were derived to calculate radiation doses for three specific site scenarios. These three hypothetical scenarios are: a wildlife refuge for hunting, fishing, and general outdoor recreation; a school with 40 hr per week occupancy by students and a custodian; and a truck farm producing fruits, vegetables, meat, and dairy products which may be consumed on site. Radiation doses are reported for each of these scenarios both for measured uranium daughter equilibrium ratios and for assumed secular equilibrium. Doses are lower for the nonequilibrium case

  5. Multilayer optical calculations

    CERN Document Server

    Byrnes, Steven J

    2016-01-01

    When light hits a multilayer planar stack, it is reflected, refracted, and absorbed in a way that can be derived from the Fresnel equations. The analysis is treated in many textbooks, and implemented in many software programs, but certain aspects of it are difficult to find explicitly and consistently worked out in the literature. Here, we derive the formulas underlying the transfer-matrix method of calculating the optical properties of these stacks, including oblique-angle incidence, absorption-vs-position profiles, and ellipsometry parameters. We discuss and explain some strange consequences of the formulas in the situation where the incident and/or final (semi-infinite) medium are absorptive, such as calculating $T>1$ in the absence of gain. We also discuss some implementation details like complex-plane branch cuts. Finally, we derive modified formulas for including one or more "incoherent" layers, i.e. very thick layers in which interference can be neglected. This document was written in conjunction with ...

  6. Fetal Risks, Relative Risks, and Relatives' Risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Minkoff, Howard; Marshall, Mary Faith

    2016-01-01

    Several factors related to fetal risk render it more or less acceptable in justifying constraints on the behavior of pregnant women. Risk is an unavoidable part of pregnancy and childbirth, one that women must balance against other vital personal and family interests. Two particular issues relate to the fairness of claims that pregnant women are never entitled to put their fetuses at risk: relative risks and relatives' risks. The former have been used-often spuriously-to advance arguments against activities, such as home birth, that may incur risk; the latter implicate the nature of relationships in determining the acceptability of coercing or precluding activities. Motivated reasoning by clinicians and judges leads to inaccurate risk assessments, and judgments based on false claims to objectivity. Such judgments undermine the moral and legal standing of pregnant women and do not advance the interests of fetuses, pregnant women, families, or states. PMID:26832079

  7. How Suitable Are Registry Data for Recurrence Risk Calculations?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ellesøe, Sabrina Gade; Jensen, Anders Boeck; Ängquist, Lars Henrik;

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Congenital heart disease (CHD) occurs in approximately 1% of all live births, and 3% to 8% of these have until now been considered familial cases, defined as the occurrence of two or more affected individuals in a family. The validity of CHD diagnoses in Danish administrative registry...

  8. Risk calculations for hereditary effects of ionizing radiation in humans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vogel, F

    1992-05-01

    A prediction of the extent to which an additional dose of ionizing radiation increases the natural germ cell mutation rate, and how much such an increase will affect the health status of future human populations is part of the service that human geneticists are expected to offer to human society. However, more detailed scrutiny of the difficulties involved reveals an extremely complex set of problems. A large number of questions arises before such a prediction can be given with confidence; many such questions cannot be answered at our present state of knowledge. However, such predictions have recently been attempted. The 1988 report of the United Nations Scientific Committee for the Effects of Atomic Radiation and the fifth report of the Committee on Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiation of the US National Research Council have presented a discussion of the human genetics problems involved. Empirical data from studies on children of highly radiation-exposed parents, e.g. parents exposed to the atomic bombs of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, or parents belonging to populations living on soil with high background radiation, have been mentioned in this context. Whereas precise predictions are impossible as yet because of deficiencies in our knowledge of medical genetics at various levels, the bulk of the existing evidence points to only small effects of low or moderate radiation doses, effects that will probably be buried in the "background noise" of changing patterns of human morbidity and mortality. PMID:1587523

  9. Willow growing - Methods of calculation and profitability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The calculation method presented here makes it possible to conduct profitability comparisons between annual and perennial crops and in addition take the planning situation into account. The method applied is a modified total step calculation. The difference between a traditional total step calculation and the modified version is the way in which payments and disbursements are taken into account over a period of several years. This is achieved by combining the present value method and the annuity method. The choice of interest rate has great bearing on the result in perennial calculations. The various components influencing the interest rate are analysed and factors relating to the establishment of the interest rate in different situations are described. The risk factor can be an important variable component of the interest rate calculation. Risk is also addressed from an approach in accordance with portfolio theory. The application of the methods sheds light on the profitability of Salix cultivation from the viewpoint of business economics, and also how different factors influence the profitability of Salix cultivation. Aspects studied are harvesting intervals, the importance of yield level, the competitiveness of Salix versus grain cultivation, the influence of income taxes on profitability etc. Methods for evaluation of activities concerning cultivation of a perennial crop are described and also involve the application of nitrogen fertilization to Salix cultivation. Studies have been performed using these methods to look into nitrogen fertilizer profitability in Salix cultivation during the first rotation period. Nitrogen fertilizer profitability has been investigated involving both production functions and cost calculations, taking the year fertilization into consideration. 72 refs., 2 figs., 52 tabs

  10. Molecular Dynamics Calculations

    Science.gov (United States)

    1996-01-01

    The development of thermodynamics and statistical mechanics is very important in the history of physics, and it underlines the difficulty in dealing with systems involving many bodies, even if those bodies are identical. Macroscopic systems of atoms typically contain so many particles that it would be virtually impossible to follow the behavior of all of the particles involved. Therefore, the behavior of a complete system can only be described or predicted in statistical ways. Under a grant to the NASA Lewis Research Center, scientists at the Case Western Reserve University have been examining the use of modern computing techniques that may be able to investigate and find the behavior of complete systems that have a large number of particles by tracking each particle individually. This is the study of molecular dynamics. In contrast to Monte Carlo techniques, which incorporate uncertainty from the outset, molecular dynamics calculations are fully deterministic. Although it is still impossible to track, even on high-speed computers, each particle in a system of a trillion trillion particles, it has been found that such systems can be well simulated by calculating the trajectories of a few thousand particles. Modern computers and efficient computing strategies have been used to calculate the behavior of a few physical systems and are now being employed to study important problems such as supersonic flows in the laboratory and in space. In particular, an animated video (available in mpeg format--4.4 MB) was produced by Dr. M.J. Woo, now a National Research Council fellow at Lewis, and the G-VIS laboratory at Lewis. This video shows the behavior of supersonic shocks produced by pistons in enclosed cylinders by following exactly the behavior of thousands of particles. The major assumptions made were that the particles involved were hard spheres and that all collisions with the walls and with other particles were fully elastic. The animated video was voted one of two

  11. Some calculations for TRISTAN

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    I took only few topics to investigate, some on which I had some personal interest, and others that I felt rather crucial for the design. In this document I report my calculations on these various subjects. Therefore this document represents my tangible contribution to TRISTAN design. I give in the following the list of the topics which are discussed in this document. 1. Increase of the vertical betatron emmitance by skew quadrupoles in the electron storage ring. 2. Bremsstrahlung. 3. Dipole correcting system for electron ring. 4. Wigglers at low energies 5. Steady state compensation of beam loading in the single beam mode in the electron storage ring. 6. Coupled bunch longitudinal instability for electron ring. 7. Ion production and trapping in the electron storage ring for TRISTAN. 8. Estimate of the longitudinal impedance for the TRISTAN electron storage ring. (author)

  12. Modern biogeochemistry environmental risk assessment

    CERN Document Server

    Bashkin, Vladimir N

    2006-01-01

    Most books deal mainly with various technical aspects of ERA description and calculationsAims at generalizing the modern ideas of both biogeochemical and environmental risk assessment during recent yearsAims at supplementing the existing books by providing a modern understanding of mechanisms that are responsible for the ecological risk for human beings and ecosystem

  13. Statistics review 11: Assessing risk

    OpenAIRE

    Bewick, Viv; Cheek, Liz; Ball, Jonathan

    2004-01-01

    Relative risk and odds ratio have been introduced in earlier reviews (see Statistics reviews 3, 6 and 8). This review describes the calculation and interpretation of their confidence intervals. The different circumstances in which the use of either the relative risk or odds ratio is appropriate and their relative merits are discussed. A method of measuring the impact of exposure to a risk factor is introduced. Measures of the success of a treatment using data from clinical trials are also con...

  14. Risks from nuclear waste

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The first part of this review discusses the importance of risk. If there is any relation between the emotional and rational risk perceptions (for example, it is believed that increased knowledge will decrease emotions), it will be a desirable goal for society, and the nuclear industry in particular, to improve the understanding by the laymen of the rational risks from nuclear energy. This review surveys various paths to a more common comprehension - perhaps a consensus - of the nuclear waste risks. The second part discusses radioactivity as a risk factor and concludes that it has no relation in itself to risk, but must be connected to exposure leading to a dose risk, i.e. a health detriment, which is commonly expressed in terms of cancer induction rate. Dose-effect relations are discussed in light of recent scientific debate. The third part of the report describes a number of hazard indexes for nuclear waste found in the literature and distinguishes between absolute and relative risk scales. The absolute risks as well as the relative risks have changed over time due to changes in radiological and metabolic data and by changes in the mode of calculation. To judge from the literature, the risk discussion is huge, even when it is limited to nuclear waste. It would be very difficult to make a comprehensive review and extract the essentials from that. Therefore, we have chosen to select some publications, out of the over 100, which we summarize rather comprehensively; in some cases we also include our remarks. 110 refs, 22 figs

  15. Risks from nuclear waste

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Liljenzin, J.O.; Rydberg, J. [Radiochemistry Consultant Group, Vaestra Froelunda (Sweden)

    1996-11-01

    The first part of this review discusses the importance of risk. If there is any relation between the emotional and rational risk perceptions (for example, it is believed that increased knowledge will decrease emotions), it will be a desirable goal for society, and the nuclear industry in particular, to improve the understanding by the laymen of the rational risks from nuclear energy. This review surveys various paths to a more common comprehension - perhaps a consensus - of the nuclear waste risks. The second part discusses radioactivity as a risk factor and concludes that it has no relation in itself to risk, but must be connected to exposure leading to a dose risk, i.e. a health detriment, which is commonly expressed in terms of cancer induction rate. Dose-effect relations are discussed in light of recent scientific debate. The third part of the report describes a number of hazard indexes for nuclear waste found in the literature and distinguishes between absolute and relative risk scales. The absolute risks as well as the relative risks have changed over time due to changes in radiological and metabolic data and by changes in the mode of calculation. To judge from the literature, the risk discussion is huge, even when it is limited to nuclear waste. It would be very difficult to make a comprehensive review and extract the essentials from that. Therefore, we have chosen to select some publications, out of the over 100, which we summarize rather comprehensively; in some cases we also include our remarks. 110 refs, 22 figs.

  16. Risk communication

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper deals with risk communication, understood as the exchange of knowledge and opinions between various actors involved in risk management. Because of new risks created by man's scientific and technological ingenuity, risk communication attains ever wider social functions, involving an increasing number of people. The tasks for risk communication often reflect conflicting perspectives and interests of the communicating parties. The author stresses the importance of communication quality, i.e. its adequacy, understandability and credibility. Risk communication has to cope with problems such as the discrepancy between the perspectives of laymen and experts, uncertainties in risk assessment and the lack of scientific literacy among the public. One of the major conditions for successful risk communication is trust in the communicators, balanced with some skepticism and critical mind. The author finally suggests that, instead of promoting ''understanding of technology'', risk communication should foster and understanding of the necessary compatibility of technology, societal and environmental issues. (author)

  17. Risk perception

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The present paper outlines perceptions of radiation risks within a general framework of risk perception research. The authors comment on the importance and the implications related to the choice of terminology, including the multiple definitions of ''risk'', for risk perception and risk communication. They describe the main factors influencing subjective risk assessments found in the literature, and illustrate how these factors guide the different reactions to indoor radon and radioactive fall-out due to nuclear accidents. They also exemplify the differences between risk assessments by experts and the public, present some successful models of perceived risk and risk acceptance, and draw some general conclusions from the research field. (author). 96 refs, 4 figs, 1 tab

  18. Market risk premium: Required, historical and expected

    OpenAIRE

    Fernandez, Pablo

    2004-01-01

    The market risk premium is one of the most important but elusive parameters in finance. It is also called equity premium, market premium and risk premium. The term 'market risk premium' is difficult to understand because it is used to designate three different concepts: 1) Required market risk premium, which is the incremental return of a diversified portfolio (the market) over the risk-free rate (return of treasury bonds) required by an investor. It is needed for calculating the required ret...

  19. Risk Management

    OpenAIRE

    Černák, Peter

    2009-01-01

    The Master's Thesis deals with the topic of risk management in a non-financial company. The goal of this Thesis is to create a framework for review of risk management process and to practically apply it in a case study. Objectives of the theoretical parts are: stating the reasons for risk management in non-financial companies, addressing the main parts of risk management and providing guidance for review of risk management process. A special attention is paid to financial risks. The practical...

  20. Exoplanet Equilibrium Chemistry Calculations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blumenthal, Sarah; Harrington, J.; Bowman, M.; Blecic, J.

    2013-10-01

    Recently, Agundez et al. (2012, A&A 548, A73) used a chemical kinetics code to study a model HD 209458b (equilibrium temperature of 1450 K, assuming full redistribution and 0 albedo). They found that thermochemistry dominates most of the dayside, but that significant compositional gradients may exist across the dayside. We calculate equilibrium-chemistry molecular abundances for several model exoplanets, using NASA's open-source Chemical Equilibrium Abundances code (McBride and Gordon 1996). We vary the degree of radiation redistribution to the dark side, ranging from total redistribution to instantaneous reradiation. Atomically, both the solar abundance multiple and the carbon fraction vary. Planet substellar temperatures range from just above 1200 K, where photochemistry should no longer be important, to those of hot planets (3000 K). We present synthetic abundance images for the key spectroscopic molecules CO, CH4, and H2O for several hot-Jupiter model planets. This work was supported by the NASA Planetary Atmospheres grant NNX12AI69G.

  1. Parallel nearest neighbor calculations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trease, Harold

    We are just starting to parallelize the nearest neighbor portion of our free-Lagrange code. Our implementation of the nearest neighbor reconnection algorithm has not been parallelizable (i.e., we just flip one connection at a time). In this paper we consider what sort of nearest neighbor algorithms lend themselves to being parallelized. For example, the construction of the Voronoi mesh can be parallelized, but the construction of the Delaunay mesh (dual to the Voronoi mesh) cannot because of degenerate connections. We will show our most recent attempt to tessellate space with triangles or tetrahedrons with a new nearest neighbor construction algorithm called DAM (Dial-A-Mesh). This method has the characteristics of a parallel algorithm and produces a better tessellation of space than the Delaunay mesh. Parallel processing is becoming an everyday reality for us at Los Alamos. Our current production machines are Cray YMPs with 8 processors that can run independently or combined to work on one job. We are also exploring massive parallelism through the use of two 64K processor Connection Machines (CM2), where all the processors run in lock step mode. The effective application of 3-D computer models requires the use of parallel processing to achieve reasonable "turn around" times for our calculations.

  2. Configuration space Faddeev calculations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The detailed study of few-body systems provides one of the most precise tools for studying the dynamics of nuclei. Our research program consists of a careful theoretical study of the nuclear few-body systems. During the past year we have completed several aspects of this program. We have continued our program of using the trinucleon system to investigate the validity of various realistic nucleon-nucleon potentials. Also, the effects of meson-exchange currents in nuclear systems have been studied. Initial calculations using the configuration-space Faddeev equations for nucleon-deuteron scattering have been completed. With modifications to treat relativistic systems, few-body methods can be applied to phenomena that are sensitive to the structure of the individual hadrons. We have completed a review of Relativistic Hamiltonian Dynamics in Nuclear and Particle Physics for Advances in Nuclear Physics. Although it is called a review, it is a large document that contains a significant amount of new research

  3. Calculation of uncertainties

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    One of the most important aspects in relation to the quality assurance in any analytical activity is the estimation of measurement uncertainty. There is general agreement that 'the expression of the result of a measurement is not complete without specifying its associated uncertainty'. An analytical process is the mechanism for obtaining methodological information (measurand) of a material system (population). This implies the need for the definition of the problem, the choice of methods for sampling and measurement and proper execution of these activities for obtaining information. The result of a measurement is only an approximation or estimate of the value of the measurand, which is complete only when accompanied by an estimate of the uncertainty of the analytical process. According to the 'Vocabulary of Basic and General Terms in Metrology' measurement uncertainty' is the parameter associated with the result of a measurement that characterizes the dispersion of the values that could reasonably be attributed to the measurand (or magnitude). This parameter could be a standard deviation or a confidence interval. The uncertainty evaluation requires detailed look at all possible sources, but not disproportionately. We can make a good estimate of the uncertainty concentrating efforts on the largest contributions. The key steps of the process of determining the uncertainty in the measurements are: - the specification of the measurand; - identification of the sources of uncertainty - the quantification of individual components of uncertainty, - calculate the combined standard uncertainty; - report of uncertainty.

  4. Relativistic few body calculations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A modern treatment of the nuclear few-body problem must take into account both the quark structure of baryons and mesons, which should be important at short range, and the relativistic exchange of mesons, which describes the long range, peripheral interactions. A way to model both of these aspects is described. The long range, peripheral interactions are calculated using the spectator model, a general approach in which the spectators to nucleon interactions are put on their mass-shell. Recent numerical results for a relativistic OBE model of the NN interaction, obtained by solving a relativistic equation with one-particle on mass-shell, will be presented and discussed. Two meson exchange models, one with only four mesons (π,σ,/rho/,ω) but with a 25% admixture of γ5 coupling for the pion, and a second with six mesons (π,σ,/rho/,ω,δ,/eta/) but pure γ5γ/sup μ/ pion coupling, are shown to give very good quantitative fits to the NN scattering phase shifts below 400 MeV, and also a good description of the /rvec p/ 40Ca elastic scattering observables. Applications of this model to electromagnetic interactions of the two body system, with emphasis on the determination of relativistic current operators consistent with the dynamics and the exact treatment of current conservation in the presence of phenomenological form factors, will be described. 18 refs., 8 figs

  5. Impact Cratering Calculations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahrens, Thomas J.

    2001-01-01

    We examined the von Mises and Mohr-Coulomb strength models with and without damage effects and developed a model for dilatancy. The models and results are given in O'Keefe et al. We found that by incorporating damage into the models that we could in a single integrated impact calculation, starting with the bolide in the atmosphere produce final crater profiles having the major features found in the field measurements. These features included a central uplift, an inner ring, circular terracing and faulting. This was accomplished with undamaged surface strengths of approximately 0.1 GPa and at depth strengths of approximately 1.0 GPa. We modeled the damage in geologic materials using a phenomenological approach, which coupled the Johnson-Cook damage model with the CTH code geologic strength model. The objective here was not to determine the distribution of fragment sizes, but rather to determine the effect of brecciated and comminuted material on the crater evolution, fault production, ejecta distribution, and final crater morphology.

  6. Coefficients calculations of conversion of cancer risk for occupational exposure using Monte Carlo simulations in cardiac procedures of interventionist radiology; Calculo de coeficientes de conversao de risco de cancer para exposicoes medicas e ocupacionais usando simulacoes Monte Carlo em procedimentos cardiacos de radiologia intervencionista

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Santos, William S.; Neves, Lucio P.; Perini, Ana P.; Caldas, Linda V.E., E-mail: wssantos@ipen.br, E-mail: lpneves@ipen.br, E-mail: aperini@ipen.br, E-mail: lcaldas@ipen.br [Instituto de Pesquisas Energeticas e Nucleares (IPEN/CNEN-SP), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil); Maia, Ana F., E-mail: afmaia@ufs.br [Universidade Federal de Sergipe (UFS), Sao Cristovao, SE (Brazil). Dept. de Fisica

    2014-07-01

    Cardiac procedures are among the most common procedures in interventional radiology (IR), and can lead to high medical and occupational exposures, as in most cases are procedures complex and long lasting. In this work, conversion coefficients (CC) for the risk of cancer, normalized by kerma area product (KAP) to the patient, cardiologist and nurse were calculated using Monte Carlo simulation. The patient and the cardiologist were represented by anthropomorphic simulators MESH, and the nurse by anthropomorphic phantom FASH. Simulators were incorporated into the code of Monte Carlo MCNPX. Two scenarios were created: in the first (1), lead curtain and protective equipment suspended were not included, and in the second (2) these devices were inserted. The radiographic parameters employed in Monte Carlo simulations were: tube voltage of 60 kVp and 120 kVp; filtration of the beam and 3,5 mmAl beam area of 10 x 10 cm{sup 2}. The average values of CCs to eight projections (in 10{sup -4} / Gy.cm{sup 2} were 1,2 for the patient, 2,6E-03 (scenario 1) and 4,9E-04 (scenario 2) for cardiologist and 5,2E-04 (scenario 1) and 4,0E-04 (Scenario 2) to the nurse. The results show a significant reduction in CCs for professionals, when the lead curtain and protective equipment suspended are employed. The evaluation method used in this work can provide important information on the risk of cancer patient and professional, and thus improve the protection of workers in cardiac procedures of RI.

  7. Absolute coronary risk analyser--a tool for managing coronary heart disease risk.

    OpenAIRE

    Mitrabasu P; Shahapurkar J; Sreekumar T; Vyawahare M; Sarma C

    2003-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: The aim of the present study was to develop a coronary risk analyser which can calculate authentically the absolute coronary risk of an individual for coronary risk management. METHODS AND RESULTS: After extensive literature survey was done to derive the most appropriate method to calculate the absolute coronary risk. Joint British recommendations derived from Framingham′s heart study were adopted for its supreme sensitivity and specificity. A windows based software is deve...

  8. The rating reliability calculator

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Solomon David J

    2004-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Rating scales form an important means of gathering evaluation data. Since important decisions are often based on these evaluations, determining the reliability of rating data can be critical. Most commonly used methods of estimating reliability require a complete set of ratings i.e. every subject being rated must be rated by each judge. Over fifty years ago Ebel described an algorithm for estimating the reliability of ratings based on incomplete data. While his article has been widely cited over the years, software based on the algorithm is not readily available. This paper describes an easy-to-use Web-based utility for estimating the reliability of ratings based on incomplete data using Ebel's algorithm. Methods The program is available public use on our server and the source code is freely available under GNU General Public License. The utility is written in PHP, a common open source imbedded scripting language. The rating data can be entered in a convenient format on the user's personal computer that the program will upload to the server for calculating the reliability and other statistics describing the ratings. Results When the program is run it displays the reliability, number of subject rated, harmonic mean number of judges rating each subject, the mean and standard deviation of the averaged ratings per subject. The program also displays the mean, standard deviation and number of ratings for each subject rated. Additionally the program will estimate the reliability of an average of a number of ratings for each subject via the Spearman-Brown prophecy formula. Conclusion This simple web-based program provides a convenient means of estimating the reliability of rating data without the need to conduct special studies in order to provide complete rating data. I would welcome other researchers revising and enhancing the program.

  9. Surface retention capacity calculation

    Science.gov (United States)

    David, Vaclav; Dostal, Tomas

    2010-05-01

    Flood wave transformation in the floodplain is the phenomenon which is researched within interdisciplinary project NIVA - Water Retention in Floodplains and Possibilities of Retention Capacity Increase. The project focuses on broad range of floodplain ecosystem services and mitigation of flooding is one of them. Despite main influence on flood wave transformation is due to flow retardation, retention in surface depressions within floodplain has been analyzed to get better overview of whole transformation process. Detail digital relief model (DRM) has been used for given purposes to be able to analyze terrain depressions volumes. The model was developed with use of stereophotogrammetric evaluation of airborne images with high resolution of 10 cm. It was essential for purposes of presented analysis not to apply pit removal routines which are often used for generation of DRM for hydrological modelling purposes. First, the methodology of analysis was prepared and tested on artificial surface. This surface was created using random raster generation, filtration and resampling with final resolution of 1000 x 1000 units and height of maximum 10 units above datum. The methodology itself is based on analysis of areas inundated by water at different elevation levels. Volume is than calculated for each depression using extraction of terrain elevations under corresponding water level. The method was then applied on the area of Lužnice River floodplain section to assess retention capacity of real floodplain. The floodplain had to be cut into sections perpendicular to main river orientation for analyses as the method was tested for square shaped area without any significant inclination. Results obtained by mentioned analysis are presented in this paper. Acknowledgement Presented research was accomplished within national project NIVA - Water Retention in Floodplains and Possibilities of Retention Capacity Increase, nr. QH82078. The project is funded by Ministry of Agriculture of

  10. Surrounding Risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mogens Steffensen

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Research in insurance and finance was always intersecting although they were originally and generally viewed as separate disciplines. Insurance is about transferring risks between parties such that the burdens of risks are borne by those who can. This makes insurance transactions a beneficial activity for the society. It calls on detection, modelling, valuation, and controlling of risks. One of the main sources of control is diversification of risks and in that respect it becomes an issue in itself to clarify diversifiability of risks. However, many diversifiable risks are not, by nature or by contract design, separable from non-diversifiable risks that are, on the other hand, sometimes traded in financial markets and sometimes not. A key observation is that the economic risk came before the insurance contract: Mother earth destroys and kills incidentally and mercilessly, but the uncertainty of economic consequences can be more or less cleverly distributed by the introduction of an insurance market.

  11. Risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Liselotte; Rasmussen, Kirsten; Elsass, Peter

    2010-01-01

    International research suggests that using formalized risk assessment methods may improve the predictive validity of professionals' predictions of risk of future violence. This study presents data on forensic psychiatric patients discharged from a forensic unit in Denmark in year 2001-2002 (n=107......). All patients were assessed for risk of future violence utilizing a structured professional judgment model: the Historical-Clinical-Risk Management-20 (HCR-20) violence risk assessment scheme. After a follow-up period of 5.6 years, recidivism outcome were obtained from the Danish National Crime...... predictive of violent recidivism compared to static items. In sum, the findings support the use of structured professional judgment models of risk assessment and in particular the HCR-20 violence risk assessment scheme. Findings regarding the importance of the (clinical) structured final risk judgment and...

  12. D ampersand D screening risk evaluation guidance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Screening Risk Evaluation (SRE) guidance document is a set of guidelines provided for the uniform implementation of SREs performed on decontamination and decommissioning (D ampersand D) facilities. Although this method has been developed for D ampersand D facilities, it can be used for transition (EM-60) facilities as well. The SRE guidance produces screening risk scores reflecting levels of risk through the use of risk ranking indices. Five types of possible risk are calculated from the SRE: current releases, worker exposures, future releases, physical hazards, and criticality. The Current Release Index (CRI) calculates the current risk to human health and the environment, exterior to the building, from ongoing or probable releases within a one-year time period. The Worker Exposure Index (WEI) calculates the current risk to workers, occupants and visitors inside contaminated D ampersand D facilities due to contaminant exposure. The Future Release Index (FRI) calculates the hypothetical risk of future releases of contaminants, after one year, to human health and the environment. The Physical Hazards Index (PHI) calculates the risks to human health due to factors other than that of contaminants. Criticality is approached as a modifying factor to the entire SRE, due to the fact that criticality issues are strictly regulated under DOE. Screening risk results will be tabulated in matrix form, and Total Risk will be calculated (weighted equation) to produce a score on which to base early action recommendations. Other recommendations from the screening risk scores will be made based either on individual index scores or from reweighted Total Risk calculations. All recommendations based on the SRE will be made based on a combination of screening risk scores, decision drivers, and other considerations, as determined on a project-by-project basis

  13. D & D screening risk evaluation guidance

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Robers, S.K.; Golden, K.M.; Wollert, D.A.

    1995-09-01

    The Screening Risk Evaluation (SRE) guidance document is a set of guidelines provided for the uniform implementation of SREs performed on decontamination and decommissioning (D&D) facilities. Although this method has been developed for D&D facilities, it can be used for transition (EM-60) facilities as well. The SRE guidance produces screening risk scores reflecting levels of risk through the use of risk ranking indices. Five types of possible risk are calculated from the SRE: current releases, worker exposures, future releases, physical hazards, and criticality. The Current Release Index (CRI) calculates the current risk to human health and the environment, exterior to the building, from ongoing or probable releases within a one-year time period. The Worker Exposure Index (WEI) calculates the current risk to workers, occupants and visitors inside contaminated D&D facilities due to contaminant exposure. The Future Release Index (FRI) calculates the hypothetical risk of future releases of contaminants, after one year, to human health and the environment. The Physical Hazards Index (PHI) calculates the risks to human health due to factors other than that of contaminants. Criticality is approached as a modifying factor to the entire SRE, due to the fact that criticality issues are strictly regulated under DOE. Screening risk results will be tabulated in matrix form, and Total Risk will be calculated (weighted equation) to produce a score on which to base early action recommendations. Other recommendations from the screening risk scores will be made based either on individual index scores or from reweighted Total Risk calculations. All recommendations based on the SRE will be made based on a combination of screening risk scores, decision drivers, and other considerations, as determined on a project-by-project basis.

  14. Quantitative flood risk assessment for Polders

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In the Netherlands, the design of dikes and other water retaining structures is based on an acceptable probability (frequency) of overtopping. In 1993 a new safety concept was introduced based on total flood risk. Risk was defined as the product of probability and consequences. In recent years advanced tools have become available to calculate the actual flood risk of a polder. This paper describes the application of these tools to an existing lowland river area. The complete chain of calculations necessary to estimate the risk of flooding of a polder (or dike ring) is presented. The difficulties in applying the present day tools and the largest uncertainties in the calculations are shown

  15. Risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The radiation hormesis hypothesis is discussed claiming that low dose ionizing radiation shows positive biological effects. The hypothesis could not be demonstrably proved. In the last decade, new disciplines have been developing, such as risk assessment and risk management that, on the basis of proven results and the consideration of all circumstances quantitatively assess and test possible risks. (M.D.). 1 fig

  16. Calculation of multiphoton ionization processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, T. N.; Poe, R. T.

    1976-01-01

    We propose an accurate and efficient procedure in the calculation of multiphoton ionization processes. In addition to the calculational advantage, this procedure also enables us to study the relative contributions of the resonant and nonresonant intermediate states.

  17. HEU benchmark calculations and LEU preliminary calculations for IRR-1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    We performed neutronics calculations for the Soreq Research Reactor, IRR-1. The calculations were done for the purpose of upgrading and benchmarking our codes and methods. The codes used were mainly WIMS-D/4 for cell calculations and the three dimensional diffusion code CITATION for full core calculations. The experimental flux was obtained by gold wire activation methods and compared with our calculated flux profile. The IRR-1 is loaded with highly enriched uranium fuel assemblies, of the plate type. In the framework of preparation for conversion to low enrichment fuel, additional calculations were done assuming the presence of LEU fresh fuel. In these preliminary calculations we investigated the effect on the criticality and flux distributions of the increase of U-238 loading, and the corresponding uranium density.(author)

  18. Risk reality vs risk perception

    OpenAIRE

    Micic, T.

    2016-01-01

    Here we explore new tools to improve risk communication within built infrastructure procurement by considering quantitative engineering risk and perceived risk associated with groups of stakeholders. In particular, the perceived risk is assumed to be dependent on motivational values that individuals identify with. The motivational values are evaluated using 40 questions Swartz Portrait Value Questionnaires. Ten hazards are considered in a survey to identify two dimensions, fear and unknown fo...

  19. Risk factors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This article deals with the development of risk management in the gas sector business: why a risk factor legal mention must precede any published financial information? Do gas companies have to face new risks? Is there specific risks bound to gas activities? Why companies want to master their risks? Is it mandatory or just a new habit? Do they expect a real benefit in return? These are the risk management questions that are analyzed in this article which is based on the public communication of 15 gas companies randomly selected over the world. The information comes from their annual reports or from documents available on their web sites. The intention of this document is not to be exhaustive or to make statistics but only to shade light on the risk factors of the gas sector. (J.S.)

  20. A comparison of carbon calculators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    International attention to carbon dioxide emissions is turning to an individual's contribution, or 'carbon footprint.' Calculators that estimate an individual's CO2 emissions have become more prevalent on the internet. Even with similar inputs, however, these calculators can generate varying results, often by as much as several metric tons per annum per individual activity. This paper examines the similarities and differences among ten US-based calculators. Overall, the calculators lack consistency, especially for estimates of CO2 emissions from household electricity consumption. In addition, most calculators lack information about their methods and estimates, which impedes comparison and validation. Although carbon calculators can promote public awareness of carbon emissions from individual behavior, this paper reveals the need for improved consistency and transparency in the calculators

  1. Use of risk aversion in risk acceptance criteria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Quantitative risk acceptance criteria for technological systems must be both justifiable, based upon societal values and objectives, and workable in the sense that compliance is possible and can be demonstrated in a straightforward manner. Societal values have frequently been assessed using recorded accident statistics on a wide range of human activities assuming that the statistics in some way reflect societal preferences, or by psychometric surveys concerning perceptions and evaluations of risk. Both methods indicate a societal aversion to risk e.g., many small accidents killing a total of 100 people are preferred over one large accident in which 100 lives are lost. Some of the implications of incorporating risk aversion in acceptance criteria are discussed. Calculated risks of various technological systems are converted to expected social costs using various risk aversion factors. The uncertainties in these assessments are also discussed

  2. Risk management

    OpenAIRE

    Šihovec, Martin

    2006-01-01

    Práce má dvě části - praktickou a teoretickou. V teoretické části je popsán risk management - základní pojmy, riziko, dělení risk managementu. V praktické části je zpracován risk management pro konkrétní firmu.

  3. Calculating Variable Annuity Liability 'Greeks' Using Monte Carlo Simulation

    OpenAIRE

    Cathcart, Mark J.; Steven Morrison; McNeil, Alexander J.

    2011-01-01

    Hedging methods to mitigate the exposure of variable annuity products to market risks require the calculation of market risk sensitivities (or "Greeks"). The complex, path-dependent nature of these products means these sensitivities typically must be estimated by Monte Carlo simulation. Standard market practice is to measure such sensitivities using a "bump and revalue" method. As well as requiring multiple valuations, such approaches can be unreliable for higher order Greeks, e.g., gamma. In...

  4. Predicting Coronary Heart Disease and Stroke: The FINRISK Calculator.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vartiainen, Erkki; Laatikainen, Tiina; Peltonen, Markku; Puska, Pekka

    2016-06-01

    The FINRISK risk calculator predicts 10-year risk for coronary heart disease, stroke incidence, and their combination. The model is based on 10-year cohort follow-up from 3 different cohorts in 1982, 1987, and 1992 from a random population sample in 3 areas in Finland. Coronary heart disease, stroke, and their combination are predicted by smoking, systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, diabetes, and family history. The Internet-based calculator is commonly used in Finland in health services to assess the need for hypertension and hypercholesterolemia treatment and is used also in patients' counseling. PMID:27242089

  5. Invert Effective Thermal Conductivity Calculation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The objective of this calculation is to evaluate the temperature-dependent effective thermal conductivities of a repository-emplaced invert steel set and surrounding ballast material. The scope of this calculation analyzes a ballast-material thermal conductivity range of 0.10 to 0.70 W/m · K, a transverse beam spacing range of 0.75 to 1.50 meters, and beam compositions of A 516 carbon steel and plain carbon steel. Results from this calculation are intended to support calculations that identify waste package and repository thermal characteristics for Site Recommendation (SR). This calculation was developed by Waste Package Department (WPD) under Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management (OCRWM) procedure AP-3.12Q, Revision 1, ICN 0, Calculations

  6. Global nuclear-structure calculations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The revival of interest in nuclear ground-state octupole deformations that occurred in the 1980's was stimulated by observations in 1980 of particularly large deviations between calculated and experimental masses in the Ra region, in a global calculation of nuclear ground-state masses. By minimizing the total potential energy with respect to octupole shape degrees of freedom in addition to ε2 and ε4 used originally, a vastly improved agreement between calculated and experimental masses was obtained. To study the global behavior and interrelationships between other nuclear properties, we calculate nuclear ground-state masses, spins, pairing gaps and Β-decay and half-lives and compare the results to experimental qualities. The calculations are based on the macroscopic-microscopic approach, with the microscopic contributions calculated in a folded-Yukawa single-particle potential

  7. Strategy Guideline. Accurate Heating and Cooling Load Calculations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Burdick, Arlan [IBACOS, Inc., Pittsburgh, PA (United States)

    2011-06-01

    This guide presents the key criteria required to create accurate heating and cooling load calculations and offers examples of the implications when inaccurate adjustments are applied to the HVAC design process. The guide shows, through realistic examples, how various defaults and arbitrary safety factors can lead to significant increases in the load estimate. Emphasis is placed on the risks incurred from inaccurate adjustments or ignoring critical inputs of the load calculation.

  8. Strategy Guideline: Accurate Heating and Cooling Load Calculations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Burdick, A.

    2011-06-01

    This guide presents the key criteria required to create accurate heating and cooling load calculations and offers examples of the implications when inaccurate adjustments are applied to the HVAC design process. The guide shows, through realistic examples, how various defaults and arbitrary safety factors can lead to significant increases in the load estimate. Emphasis is placed on the risks incurred from inaccurate adjustments or ignoring critical inputs of the load calculation.

  9. PGA: power calculator for case-control genetic association analyses

    OpenAIRE

    Chen Bingshu E; Rosenberg Philip S; Menashe Idan

    2008-01-01

    Abstract Background Statistical power calculations inform the design and interpretation of genetic association studies, but few programs are tailored to case-control studies of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in unrelated subjects. Results We have developed the "Power for Genetic Association analyses" (PGA) package which comprises algorithms and graphical user interfaces for sample size and minimum detectable risk calculations using SNP or haplotype effects under different genetic mode...

  10. Evaluation of the Accuracy of Smartphone Medical Calculation Apps

    OpenAIRE

    Bierbrier, Rachel; Lo, Vivian; Wu, Robert C

    2014-01-01

    Background Mobile phones with operating systems and capable of running applications (smartphones) are increasingly being used in clinical settings. Medical calculating applications are popular mhealth apps for smartphones. These include, for example, apps that calculate the severity or likelihood of disease-based clinical scoring systems, such as determining the severity of liver disease, the likelihood of having a pulmonary embolism, and risk stratification in acute coronary syndrome. Howeve...

  11. Measurement and calculation of evaporation

    OpenAIRE

    Plesničar, Leja

    2015-01-01

    The thesis presents three selected methods of measurement and calculation of the evapotranspiration on research plot at Hajdrihova 28 in Ljubljana. First method is measurement by evaporation pan type A and the other two methods are empirical equations for potential evapotranspiration calculation: FAO Penman-Monteith equation and Thornthwait equation. The results obtained for all three methods are compared with each other. Calculated results according to the FAO Penman-Monteith equation wer...

  12. Calculation of Spectra of Solids:

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lindgård, Per-Anker

    1975-01-01

    The Gilat-Raubenheimer method simplified to tetrahedron division is used to calculate the real and imaginary part of the dynamical response function for electrons. A frequency expansion for the real part is discussed. The Lindhard function is calculated as a test for numerical accuracy....... The conduction electron susceptibility is calculated for Gd, Tb and Dy using the RAPW energy bands by Keeton and Louks....

  13. Competitive Approach To Information System Risk Analyses

    OpenAIRE

    Miroslaw Ryba

    2004-01-01

    This article presents the method of IT risk assessment from human behaviour perspective, developed by the author. It is an alternative for the commonly used approaches to risk assessment, based on vulnerability and threat identification and the probability estimation of their occurrence. The authors method applies to risk calculation factors such as administrators or users skills, attackers knowledge and determination, or attack method used. The key element of the proposed risk analysis compe...

  14. CAVEAT calculations of shock interactions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    CAVEAT is a computer code for calculating the time-varying fluid dynamics of several adjacent materials in two or three space dimensions. Using an extended Godunov technique and adaptive meshing, the code allows for large slippage at material interfaces. To exhibit the capability for calculating strong distortions we have performed a variety of calculations describing the interaction of shocks with rigid wedges, cylinders, and spheres and deformable cylindrical, spherical, and conical shells in two space dimensions. Comparison of the results with experimental data and analytical solutions demonstrates the considerable accuracy that can be expected from calculations with this code

  15. Procedures for Calculating Residential Dehumidification Loads

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Winkler, Jon [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Booten, Chuck [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2016-06-01

    Residential building codes and voluntary labeling programs are continually increasing the energy efficiency requirements of residential buildings. Improving a building's thermal enclosure and installing energy-efficient appliances and lighting can result in significant reductions in sensible cooling loads leading to smaller air conditioners and shorter cooling seasons. However due to fresh air ventilation requirements and internal gains, latent cooling loads are not reduced by the same proportion. Thus, it's becoming more challenging for conventional cooling equipment to control indoor humidity at part-load cooling conditions and using conventional cooling equipment in a non-conventional building poses the potential risk of high indoor humidity. The objective of this project was to investigate the impact the chosen design condition has on the calculated part-load cooling moisture load, and compare calculated moisture loads and the required dehumidification capacity to whole-building simulations. Procedures for sizing whole-house supplemental dehumidification equipment have yet to be formalized; however minor modifications to current Air-Conditioner Contractors of America (ACCA) Manual J load calculation procedures are appropriate for calculating residential part-load cooling moisture loads. Though ASHRAE 1% DP design conditions are commonly used to determine the dehumidification requirements for commercial buildings, an appropriate DP design condition for residential buildings has not been investigated. Two methods for sizing supplemental dehumidification equipment were developed and tested. The first method closely followed Manual J cooling load calculations; whereas the second method made more conservative assumptions impacting both sensible and latent loads.

  16. Risk management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    There is always a risk of an accident occurring at a nuclear power plant, however small. The problem lies in estimating the probability of it occurring. The method of probabilistic safety assessment provides this estimate, and by identifying the sources of potential risk, makes it possible to prevent them from occurring. It is not, however, a substitute for other decision-making processes. (author)

  17. Risk Factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Depression has been found to be a risk factor for development of heart disease. Depression occurs in up to 20% of people with ... and has been found to be a risk factor also for subsequent heart attack, the ... Fortunately, depression in patients with heart disease responds well to ...

  18. Demand of Insurance under the Cost-of-Capital Premium Calculation Principle

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael Merz

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available We study the optimal insurance design problem. This is a risk sharing problem between an insured and an insurer. The main novelty in this paper is that we study this optimization problem under a risk-adjusted premium calculation principle for the insurance cover. This risk-adjusted premium calculation principle uses the cost-of-capital approach as it is suggested (and used by the regulator and the insurance industry.

  19. Prenatal radiation exposure. Dose calculation; Praenatale Strahlenexposition. Dosisermittlung

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Scharwaechter, C.; Schwartz, C.A.; Haage, P. [University Hospital Witten/Herdecke, Wuppertal (Germany). Dept. of Diagnostic and Interventional Radiology; Roeser, A. [University Hospital Witten/Herdecke, Wuppertal (Germany). Dept. of Radiotherapy and Radio-Oncology

    2015-05-15

    The unborn child requires special protection. In this context, the indication for an X-ray examination is to be checked critically. If thereupon radiation of the lower abdomen including the uterus cannot be avoided, the examination should be postponed until the end of pregnancy or alternative examination techniques should be considered. Under certain circumstances, either accidental or in unavoidable cases after a thorough risk assessment, radiation exposure of the unborn may take place. In some of these cases an expert radiation hygiene consultation may be required. This consultation should comprise the expected risks for the unborn while not perturbing the mother or the involved medical staff. For the risk assessment in case of an in-utero X-ray exposition deterministic damages with a defined threshold dose are distinguished from stochastic damages without a definable threshold dose. The occurrence of deterministic damages depends on the dose and the developmental stage of the unborn at the time of radiation. To calculate the risks of an in-utero radiation exposure a three-stage concept is commonly applied. Depending on the amount of radiation, the radiation dose is either estimated, roughly calculated using standard tables or, in critical cases, accurately calculated based on the individual event. The complexity of the calculation thereby increases from stage to stage. An estimation based on stage one is easily feasible whereas calculations based on stages two and especially three are more complex and often necessitate execution by specialists. This article demonstrates in detail the risks for the unborn child pertaining to its developmental phase and explains the three-stage concept as an evaluation scheme. It should be noted, that all risk estimations are subject to considerable uncertainties.

  20. Calculations of effective atomic number

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kaliman, Z. [Department of Physics, Faculty of Arts and Sciences, Omladinska 14, Rijeka (Croatia); Orlic, N. [Department of Physics, Faculty of Arts and Sciences, Omladinska 14, Rijeka (Croatia)], E-mail: norlic@ffri.hr; Jelovica, I. [Department of Physics, Faculty of Arts and Sciences, Omladinska 14, Rijeka (Croatia)

    2007-09-21

    We present and discuss effective atomic number (Z{sub eff}) obtained by different methods of calculations. There is no unique relation between the computed values. This observation led us to the conclusion that any Z{sub eff} is valid only for given process. We illustrate calculations for different subshells of atom Z=72 and for M3 subshell of several other atoms.

  1. Calculation of two Belyi pairs

    OpenAIRE

    Dremov, V. A.

    2008-01-01

    We calculate two Belyi pairs using the properties of Mulase-Penkava differential. Details are provided including accurate construction of coordinates, variables and equations. The calculation is a part of the work which results in a catalogue arXiv:0710.2658

  2. CELSS scenario analysis: Breakeven calculations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mason, R. M.

    1980-01-01

    A model of the relative mass requirements of food production components in a controlled ecological life support system (CELSS) based on regenerative concepts is described. Included are a discussion of model scope, structure, and example calculations. Computer programs for cultivar and breakeven calculations are also included.

  3. Longevity Risk and Private Pensions

    OpenAIRE

    Pablo Antolin

    2007-01-01

    This paper examines how uncertainty regarding future mortality and life expectancy outcomes, i.e. longevity risk, affects employer-provided defined benefit (DB) private pension plans liabilities. For this purpose, it examines the different approaches that private pension plans follow in practice when incorporating longevity risk in their actuarial calculations. Unfortunately, most pension funds do not fully account for future improvements in mortality and life expectancy. The paper then prese...

  4. Shielding calculational system for plutonium

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A computer calculational system has been developed and assembled specifically for calculating dose rates in AEC plutonium fabrication facilities. The system consists of two computer codes and all nuclear data necessary for calculation of neutron and gamma dose rates from plutonium. The codes include the multigroup version of the Battelle Monte Carlo code for solution of general neutron and gamma shielding problems and the PUSHLD code for solution of shielding problems where low energy gamma and x-rays are important. The nuclear data consists of built in neutron and gamma yields and spectra for various plutonium compounds, an automatic calculation of age effects and all cross-sections commonly used. Experimental correlations have been performed to verify portions of the calculational system. (23 tables, 7 figs, 16 refs) (U.S.)

  5. DOUBLE-MARKOV RISK MODEL

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Xiaoyun MO; Jieming ZHOU; Hui OU; Xiangqun YANG

    2013-01-01

    Given a new Double-Markov risk model DM =(μ,Q,v,H; Y,Z) and Double-Markov risk process U ={U(t),t ≥ 0}.The ruin or survival problem is addressed.Equations which the survival probability satisfied and the formulas of calculating survival probability are obtained.Recursion formulas of calculating the survival probability and analytic expression of recursion items are obtained.The conclusions are expressed by Q matrix for a Markov chain and transition probabilities for another Markov Chain.

  6. Monte Carlo method application to shielding calculations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    CANDU spent fuel discharged from the reactor core contains Pu, so it must be stressed in two directions: tracing for the fuel reactivity in order to prevent critical mass formation and personnel protection during the spent fuel manipulation. The basic tasks accomplished by the shielding calculations in a nuclear safety analysis consist in dose rates calculations in order to prevent any risks both for personnel protection and impact on the environment during the spent fuel manipulation, transport and storage. To perform photon dose rates calculations the Monte Carlo MORSE-SGC code incorporated in SAS4 sequence from SCALE system was used. The paper objective was to obtain the photon dose rates to the spent fuel transport cask wall, both in radial and axial directions. As source of radiation one spent CANDU fuel bundle was used. All the geometrical and material data related to the transport cask were considered according to the shipping cask type B model, whose prototype has been realized and tested in the Institute for Nuclear Research Pitesti. (authors)

  7. Closure and Sealing Design Calculation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    T. Lahnalampi; J. Case

    2005-08-26

    The purpose of the ''Closure and Sealing Design Calculation'' is to illustrate closure and sealing methods for sealing shafts, ramps, and identify boreholes that require sealing in order to limit the potential of water infiltration. In addition, this calculation will provide a description of the magma that can reduce the consequences of an igneous event intersecting the repository. This calculation will also include a listing of the project requirements related to closure and sealing. The scope of this calculation is to: summarize applicable project requirements and codes relating to backfilling nonemplacement openings, removal of uncommitted materials from the subsurface, installation of drip shields, and erecting monuments; compile an inventory of boreholes that are found in the area of the subsurface repository; describe the magma bulkhead feature and location; and include figures for the proposed shaft and ramp seals. The objective of this calculation is to: categorize the boreholes for sealing by depth and proximity to the subsurface repository; develop drawing figures which show the location and geometry for the magma bulkhead; include the shaft seal figures and a proposed construction sequence; and include the ramp seal figure and a proposed construction sequence. The intent of this closure and sealing calculation is to support the License Application by providing a description of the closure and sealing methods for the Safety Analysis Report. The closure and sealing calculation will also provide input for Post Closure Activities by describing the location of the magma bulkhead. This calculation is limited to describing the final configuration of the sealing and backfill systems for the underground area. The methods and procedures used to place the backfill and remove uncommitted materials (such as concrete) from the repository and detailed design of the magma bulkhead will be the subject of separate analyses or calculations. Post

  8. Closure and Sealing Design Calculation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The purpose of the ''Closure and Sealing Design Calculation'' is to illustrate closure and sealing methods for sealing shafts, ramps, and identify boreholes that require sealing in order to limit the potential of water infiltration. In addition, this calculation will provide a description of the magma that can reduce the consequences of an igneous event intersecting the repository. This calculation will also include a listing of the project requirements related to closure and sealing. The scope of this calculation is to: summarize applicable project requirements and codes relating to backfilling nonemplacement openings, removal of uncommitted materials from the subsurface, installation of drip shields, and erecting monuments; compile an inventory of boreholes that are found in the area of the subsurface repository; describe the magma bulkhead feature and location; and include figures for the proposed shaft and ramp seals. The objective of this calculation is to: categorize the boreholes for sealing by depth and proximity to the subsurface repository; develop drawing figures which show the location and geometry for the magma bulkhead; include the shaft seal figures and a proposed construction sequence; and include the ramp seal figure and a proposed construction sequence. The intent of this closure and sealing calculation is to support the License Application by providing a description of the closure and sealing methods for the Safety Analysis Report. The closure and sealing calculation will also provide input for Post Closure Activities by describing the location of the magma bulkhead. This calculation is limited to describing the final configuration of the sealing and backfill systems for the underground area. The methods and procedures used to place the backfill and remove uncommitted materials (such as concrete) from the repository and detailed design of the magma bulkhead will be the subject of separate analyses or calculations. Post-closure monitoring will not

  9. The Lehman Brothers Bankruptcy B: Risk Limits and Stress Tests

    OpenAIRE

    Rosalind Z. Wiggins; Andrew Metrick

    2014-01-01

    Investment banks are in the business of taking calculated risks. Risk management infrastructure facilitates the safe pursuit of profits and the balancing of associated risks. By 2006, Lehman Brothers was thought to have a very respectable risk management system, and even its regulator, the Securities and Exchange Commission, viewed its risk framework as being fully compliant with regulatory requirements. In its public disclosures, Lehman characterized its risk controls as “meaningful constrai...

  10. Risk in social-cultural perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The author intends to instigate a social-cultural risk theory. He finds the conception of risk is too objectively viewed and feels it should be considered more in relation to the subjective nature of human opinion and action. Objective and quantitative risk calculations on the basis of a theoretical model are possible and accountable, but the eventual assessment and decision making, which are based on these calculations, implicates subjective evaluation. An integral risk theory which takes into account both objective and subjective factors is considered. This can form a basis for a better social consideration and political decision making, an important point in the area of radiation hygiene. (C.F.)

  11. AN ANALYTICAL SOLUTION FOR CALCULATING THE INITIATION OF SEDIMENT MOTION

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Thomas LUCKNER; Ulrich ZANKE

    2007-01-01

    This paper presents an analytical solution for calculating the initiation of sediment motion and the risk of river bed movement. It thus deals with a fundamental problem in sediment transport, for which no complete analytical solution has yet been found. The analytical solution presented here is based on forces acting on a single grain in state of initiation of sediment motion. The previous procedures for calculating the initiation of sediment motion are complemented by an innovative combination of optical surface measurement technology for determining geometrical parameters and their statistical derivation as well as a novel approach for determining the turbulence effects of velocity fluctuations. This two aspects and the comparison of the solution functions presented here with the well known data and functions of different authors mainly differ the presented solution model for calculating the initiation of sediment motion from previous approaches. The defined values of required geometrical parameters are based on hydraulically laboratory tests with spheres. With this limitations the derivated solution functions permit the calculation of the effective critical transport parameters of a single grain, the calculation of averaged critical parameters for describing the state of initiation of sediment motion on the river bed, the calculation of the probability density of the effective critical velocity as well as the calculation of the risk of river bed movement. The main advantage of the presented model is the closed analytical solution from the equilibrium of forces on a single grain to the solution functions describing the initiation of sediment motion.

  12. Practical astronomy with your calculator

    CERN Document Server

    Duffett-Smith, Peter

    1989-01-01

    Practical Astronomy with your Calculator, first published in 1979, has enjoyed immense success. The author's clear and easy to follow routines enable you to solve a variety of practical and recreational problems in astronomy using a scientific calculator. Mathematical complexity is kept firmly in the background, leaving just the elements necessary for swiftly making calculations. The major topics are: time, coordinate systems, the Sun, the planetary system, binary stars, the Moon, and eclipses. In the third edition there are entirely new sections on generalised coordinate transformations, nutr

  13. Calculation of thermal diffuse scattering

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wakabayashi, N.; Nicklow, R. M.; Katano, S.; Ishii, Y.; Child, H. R.; Smith, H. G.; Fernandez-Baca, J. A.

    We have developed a computer program to calculate the thermal diffuse scattering (TDS) intensity distribution for single-crystal specimens in a diffractometer with no energy analysis. We assumed that the phonon frequencies are approximated by those of elastic waves and that the elastic constants, density and lattice parameters of the system under study are known. The results of the calculations were compared to experimental data obtain for single crystals of Si, diamond and NiAl at the wide-angle neutron diffractometer (WAND) at the HFIR at Oak Ridge National Laboratory. Excellent agreement was found between the calculations and the experimental observations.

  14. Calculation of thermal diffuse scattering

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The authors developed a computer program to calculate the thermal diffuse scattering (TDS) intensity distribution for single crystal specimens in a diffractometer with no energy analysis. They assumed that the phonon frequencies are approximated by those of elastic waves and that the elastic constants, density and lattice parameters of the system under study are known. The results of the calculations were compared to experimental data obtained for single crystals of Si, diamond and NiAl at the Wide Angle neutron Diffractometer at the HFIR at Oak Ridge National Laboratory. Excellent agreement was found between the calculations and the experimental observations

  15. Risk factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robbins, Catherine J; Connors, K C; Sheehan, Timothy J; Vaughan, James S

    2005-06-01

    Minimize surprises on your financial statement by adopting a model for integrated risk management that: Examines interrelationships among operations, investments, and financing. Incorporates concepts of the capital asset pricing model to manage unexpected volatility PMID:17240669

  16. Pandemic Risk

    OpenAIRE

    Jonas, Olga B.

    2013-01-01

    This study examines pandemic risk, what it means for development, and how management could be improved, both in countries and internationally. Widely held beliefs—the inevitability of pandemics, which makes them not worth worrying about, health sector exclusive management of the risks, and the nondevelopmental nature of pandemic risk—lead to underestimation, scant preparedness, and inadequate prevention. Examining the reasons why these myths persist could help governments and international or...

  17. Risk Appetite

    OpenAIRE

    Edina Berlinger; Kata Váradi

    2015-01-01

    Our article firstly examines to what extent empirical research confirms the model of decision making based on a stable utility function. To this end, we have summarised the fundamental theoretical correlations relating to risk appetite, then went on to present the main results of behavioural research, with special focus on prospect theory, the correlations between socio-demographic and cognitive characteristics and risk propensity, as well as other influencing physical, mental and psychologic...

  18. Acceptable risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The hazards of nuclear power, radioactive wastes and radiation are analysed in a general book describing and defining acceptable-risk problems, the difficulties in resolving them and considering such issues as uncertainty about their definition, lack of relevant facts, conflicting and conflicted social values and disagreements between technical experts and the lay public. The many methods that have been proposed for resolving acceptable-risk problems are identified and criticised. (author)

  19. Internal Dosimetric Calculations for Occupationally Exposed Workers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Internal radiation dosimetry calculations are very important to estimate the benefit and the risk of radiation in nuclear medicine field for both patient and worker. MIRD scheme and ICRP model have valid methods in this type of calculations. In this work, a new program called WIRDST the Workers Internal Radiation Dosimetry Simulation for Thyroid gland has been built up by using the Monte Carlo (MC) method to simulate the internal exposure of sodium iodide by inhalation for workers. The working conditions have been taken as the same as found in the hot laboratory of nuclear medicine unit in the National Cancer Institute in Cairo University. The point source equivalent model as a parameterization equation has developed newly by using the fitting model of MC method for uniform distribution of radioactive sodium iodide in the thyroid gland. This model is used for the first time in this type of calculation, and then applied on 3 D coordinates of mathematical geometry for the adult phantom of the reference man. The latest parameters (anatomical data and inhalation metabolic data) of ICRP pamphlets and recommendations have been used in this purpose. Moreover, the latest scheme for iodine decay mode and the latest geometry model for thyroid gland are used also. The results showed that the specific effective energy and the effective dose decrease from the thyroid gland to the nearest organs then decrease gradually until terminated in the organs that have large distance from the thyroid. The Annual Limit of Intake (ALI) has been calculated for a wide range of thyroid uptake (5%, 15%, 25%, 35%, 45%, and 55%) in addition to change of the working time order per week in one year. The results showed that the critical point of intake limits are decreased when the thyroid uptake is increased and/or the number of working time in the hot laboratory per week is increased

  20. The Management Object in Risk Management Approaches

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christiansen, Ulrik

    Using a systematic review of the last 55 years of research within risk management this paper explores how risk management as a management technology (methodologies, tools and frameworks to mitigate or manage risks) singles out risks as an object for management in order to make action possible. The...... paper synthesise by developing a framework of how different views on risk management enable and constrain the knowledge about risk and thus frame the possibilities to measure, analyse and calculate uncertainty and risk. Inspired by social studies of finance and accounting, the paper finally develops...... three propositions that illustrate how the framing of risk establishes a boundary for how managers might understand value creation and the possible future and how this impacts the possible responses to risk....

  1. Risk assessment - black art or science?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Measures of risk can be divided into two categories, those that observe or calculate the risk of a process or project, and those that rely on the level of risk as perceived by the people during the assessment. Collection of data of accidents (where cause and effect are obvious) and experiments on animals which can then be extrapolated to humans, are two ways of risk assessment. Mathematical models and computerized simulations, using either fault tree analysis or Monte Carlo methods are explained simply. Using these methods, experts are able to perceive risk fairly realistically. However, the general public's perception of risk is often quite different, as potential risk is assessed in different ways. The concept of tolerable risk is considered, particularly with reference to nuclear reactors such as Sizewell-B. The need to inform the public of safeguards and safety procedures so they have a better understanding of the risks of nuclear power is stressed. (U.K.)

  2. Development of computerized risk management tool

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The author describes the kinds of efforts for the development of computerized risk management tool; (1) development of a risk monitor, Risk Monster, (2) improvement of McFarm (Missing Cutsets Finding Algorithm for Risk Monitor) and finally (3) development of reliability database management system, KwDBMan. Risk Monster supports for plant operators and maintenance schedulers to monitor plant risk and to avoid high peak risk by rearranging maintenance work schedule. Improved McFarm significantly improved calculation speed of Risk Monster for the cases of supporting system OOS (Out Of Service). KwDBMan manages event data, generic data and CCF (Common Cause Failure) data to support Risk Monster as well as PSA tool, KIRAP (KAERI Integrated Reliability Analysis Package)

  3. Relativistic calculations of atomic structure

    OpenAIRE

    Fricke, Burkhard

    1984-01-01

    A review of relativistic atomic structure calculations is given with a emphasis on the Multiconfigurational-Dirac-Fock method. Its problems and deficiencies are discussed together with the contributions which go beyond the Dirac-Fock procedure.

  4. Calculations of turbulent separated flows

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, J.; Shih, T. H.

    1993-01-01

    A numerical study of incompressible turbulent separated flows is carried out by using two-equation turbulence models of the K-epsilon type. On the basis of realizability analysis, a new formulation of the eddy-viscosity is proposed which ensures the positiveness of turbulent normal stresses - a realizability condition that most existing two-equation turbulence models are unable to satisfy. The present model is applied to calculate two backward-facing step flows. Calculations with the standard K-epsilon model and a recently developed RNG-based K-epsilon model are also made for comparison. The calculations are performed with a finite-volume method. A second-order accurate differencing scheme and sufficiently fine grids are used to ensure the numerical accuracy of solutions. The calculated results are compared with the experimental data for both mean and turbulent quantities. The comparison shows that the present model performs quite well for separated flows.

  5. Calculation method of Tesla coil

    OpenAIRE

    Коломієць, Роман Олександрович

    2015-01-01

    Tesla coil, despite the simplicity of its design may be called one of the least studied electronic devices. The article is an attempt to bring in various experimental results of general theoretical framework, which is the basis of exact calculation method of Tesla coils. Such calculation should be the starting point to create devices based on it. In order to develop such methods were considered the general principles of designing Tesla coil, reviewed the most famous mathematical models of its...

  6. Hydraulic calculation of pressure pipes

    OpenAIRE

    Mikhalev, M. A.

    2012-01-01

    In the present time there is only one classic method for hydraulic calculation of pressure pipes. In it fluid flow velocity and pipeline diameter are considered as given values.The paper proposes a procedure for physical modeling and hydraulic calculation of pressure pipes, based on the theory of similarity. Methods for obtaining similarity criteria from combinations of similarity numbers were discussed. Similarity numbers and criteria and criteria equations were defined.

  7. Multifragmentation calculated with relativistic forces

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A saturating hamiltonian is presented in a relativistically covariant formalism. The interaction is described by scalar and vector mesons, with coupling strengths adjusted to the nuclear matter. No explicit density dependence is assumed. The hamiltonian is applied in a QMD calculation to determine the fragment distribution in O + Br collision at different energies (50 - 200 MeV/u) to test the applicability of the model at low energies. The results are compared with experiment and with previous non-relativistic calculations. (orig.)

  8. The calculation of pressure vessels

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The calculation guidelines of the Arbeitsgemeinschaft Druckbehaelter (task group for pressure vessels) have been revised with the following objective: conversion to international standards (SI), adaption to the latest state of guidelines for production and testing, revision of the contents of individual regulations. Another target of the cooperating interest groups of producers, operators, and supervisory bodies was a harmonization of the approaches for calculation with other German guidelines, in particular the Technische Regeln fuer Dampfkessel (technical regulations for steam boilers). (orig./RW)

  9. Risk Control of Offshore Installations. A Framework for the Establishment of Risk Indicators

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oeien, Knut

    2001-07-01

    Currently quantitative risk assessments are carried out to analyze the risk level of offshore installations and to evaluate whether or not the risk level is acceptable. By way of the quantitative risk analysis the risk status of a given installation is obtained. However, the risk status is obtained so infrequently that it is inadequate for risk control. It can be compared to economic control having the economic status presented about each fifth year, which is obviously inadequate. It is important to know the risk status because this may provide an early warning about the need for remedial actions. Without frequent information about the risk status, control of risk cannot be claimed. The main objective of this thesis has been the development of a framework for the establishment of risk indicators. These risk indicators provide a status of the risk level through measuring of changes in technical, operational and organizational factors important to risk, and is thus a means to control risk during operation of offshore petroleum installations. The framework consists of a technical methodology using the quantitative risk assessment as a basis, an organizational model, and an organizational quantification methodology. Technical risk indicators are established from the technical methodology covering the risk factors explicitly included in the quantitative risk assessment. Organizational risk indicators measure changes in the organizational risk factors included in the organizational model, but not included in the quantitative risk assessment. The organizational model is an extension to the risk model in the quantitative risk assessment. The organizational quantification methodology calculates the effect of the changes measured by the organizational risk indicators. The organizational model may also be applied as a qualitative tool for root cause analysis of incidents (process leaks). Other results are an intermediate-level expert judgment procedure applicable for

  10. Sovereign Risk and Financial Risk

    OpenAIRE

    Vivian Yue

    2012-01-01

    This paper examines the evidence on the relationship between sovereign bond spreads, economic activity, and global financial risk. Using an extensive data set of prices of outstanding sovereign bonds trading in the secondary market, we construct a comprehensive country index for sovereign bond spread dataset. Using an empirical framework, we disentangle the intricate relation linking the country sovereign bond spreads, economic fundamentals, and global financial risk index. The global financi...

  11. Natural radioactivity and cancer risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The report is a review of physical and biological parameters important in the calculation of the risk for cancer induction by natural radioactivity. Based on cited assumptions, natural radioactivity may cause 375 to 530 cases of cancer in Norway per year

  12. Managing Risks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Alaranta, Maria Eliisa; Mathiassen, Lars

    2014-01-01

    Mergers and acquisitions (M&A) require organizations to blend together different information system (IS) configurations. Unfortunately, less than 50 percent of M&A's achieve their goals, with IS integration being a major problem. Here, the authors offer a framework to help managers prepare for......, analyze, and mitigate risks during post-merger IS integration. They identify key risks relating to IS integration content, process, and context, and present five strategies for mitigating those risks. Their framework aims to help managers proactively reduce the impact of adverse events. Adopting the...... framework supported by their templates is straightforward and the time and resources required are minimal. When properly executed, adoption increases the likelihood of successful merger outcomes; the framework is thus a valuable addition to the management tool box and can be applied in collaboration with...

  13. Health risks of energy systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Electricity generation from fossil, nuclear or renewable sources causes an increased level of ambient air concentration of pollutants or an increased level of ionizing radiation due to activities at the various process steps of the energy systems, resulting in adverse health effects on the general public. Public health impacts from increased levels of airborne pollutants due to fossil fuel electricity generation have been calculated using a set of air quality models and recently reviewed exposure response functions. Since airborne pollutants from renewable energy (photovoltaic, wind) systems are mainly emitted from upstream activities, a full life cycle analysis has been performed to capture major impacts. The results show that the ranking of energy systems according to public risk depends strongly on the choice of the risk indicator. However, the general conclusion that can be drawn is that the risks resulting from the use of solid and liquid fossil fuels are at the upper end, while electricity generation from wind is an option with rather low risks per kilowatt-hour. To quantify the marginal risk induced by the choice of a specific technology, the concept of net risk has been introduced, taking into account only the difference between the risk of average industrial activities and the risk of the specific activity related to the fuel cycle of concern. Because of the high risk of underground mining, electricity production from coal has by far the highest occupational risks. Net risks from the photovoltaic system are negative, while occupational net risks from lignite, natural gas, wind and nuclear systems are positive but very low. 15 refs, 4 figs, 4 tabs

  14. Risk taking under heterogenous risk sharing

    OpenAIRE

    Belhaj, Mohamed; Frédéric DEROÏAN

    2009-01-01

    We revisit the common view that risk sharing enhances risk taking in the context of heterogenous risk sharing in a small economy. Under low volumes of transfers, we express individual risk level in terms of Bonacich measure. We find that heterogeneity combined to strategic interaction imply that risk sharing enhances risk taking only in average. However, under high transfer volumes, risk sharing may reduce risk taking. We also provide conditions under which agents under or over invest with re...

  15. Minimizing risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This article discusses ways to reduce the economic risk of independent energy projects. The topics of the article include risk categorization into areas of property, boiler and machinery, business income, and general liability, choosing a broker, choosing an insurer, and helping an insurer develop the best portfolio for the project. The author feels that attention to the guidelines for the right insurance coverage is as vital to a plant's economic stability as attention to the details of the blueprints is to its physical stability

  16. Risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This book contains a selection of research works performed in the CEDIAC Institute (Cuyo National University) in the area of Risk Analysis, with specific orientations to the subjects of uncertainty and sensitivity studies, software reliability, severe accident modeling, etc. This volume presents important material for all those researches who want to have an insight in the risk analysis field, as a tool to solution several problems frequently found in the engineering and applied sciences field, as well as for the academic teachers who want to keep up to date, including the new developments and improvements continuously arising in this field

  17. Risk communication

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The study on risk communication identifies the deficiencies concerning empirical and theoretical knowledge on objective radiation hazards of the acting personnel (managers, politicians, jurists, etc.) in administrations, governmental agencies, and business management. This is especially problematic with respect to emergency planning and estimations concerning the public behavior. The incident/accident information in Germany is discussed based on the legislative regulations revealing the controversial perception between industry, legislative and public interest. Further topics include the meandering of the modern safety semantics and the public opinion concerning catastrophic risk.

  18. Methods of core neutronic calculation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Core neutronic calculations lead to the determination of geometry, composition, controls systems and to the core exploitation limits in agreement with the expected performances, with safety rules, technological choices and fuel management methods. Neutronic calculations object are described with physics justifications of hypothesis and approximations. A description and a definition of reactivity and power distribution are also given. A panorama of calculation methods used in the conception of fast breeder and pressure water reactors, are described with numerical aspects and general interest considerations related to the field of these methods and to the industrial options chosen. A complete industrial uses panorama of methods derived from the classical or generalized perturbation theory is followed by the qualification and the definition of the validity field of numerical codes.(A.B.). 88 refs., 6 figs

  19. Insertion device calculations with mathematica

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carr, R. [Stanford Synchrotron Radiation Lab., CA (United States); Lidia, S. [Univ. of California, Davis, CA (United States)

    1995-02-01

    The design of accelerator insertion devices such as wigglers and undulators has usually been aided by numerical modeling on digital computers, using code in high level languages like Fortran. In the present era, there are higher level programming environments like IDL{reg_sign}, MatLab{reg_sign}, and Mathematica{reg_sign} in which these calculations may be performed by writing much less code, and in which standard mathematical techniques are very easily used. The authors present a suite of standard insertion device modeling routines in Mathematica to illustrate the new techniques. These routines include a simple way to generate magnetic fields using blocks of CSEM materials, trajectory solutions from the Lorentz force equations for given magnetic fields, Bessel function calculations of radiation for wigglers and undulators and general radiation calculations for undulators.

  20. PHEBUS-FPTO Benchmark calculations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This report summarizes a set of pre-test predictions made for the first Phebus-FP test, FPT-O. There were many different calculations, performed by various organizations and they represent the first attempt to calculate the whole experimental sequence, from bundle to containment. Quantitative agreement between the various calculations was not good but the particular models in the code responsible for disagreements were mostly identified. A consensus view was formed as to how the test would proceed. It was found that a successful execution of the test will require a different operating procedure than had been assumed here. Critical areas which require close attention are the need to devize a strategy for the power and flow in the bundle that takes account of uncertainties in the modelling and the shroud conductivity and the necessity to develop a reliable method to achieve the desired thermalhydraulic conditions in the containment

  1. Parameters calculation of shielding experiment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The radiation transport methodology comparing the calculated reactions and dose rates for neutrons and gama-rays, with experimental measurements obtained on iron shield, irradiated in the YAYOI reactor is evaluated. The ENDF/B-IV and VITAMIN-C libraries and the AMPX-II modular system, for cross sections generation collapsed by the ANISN code were used. The transport calculations were made using the DOT 3.5 code, adjusting the boundary iron shield source spectrum to the reactions and dose rates, measured at the beginning of shield. The neutron and gamma ray distributions calculated on the iron shield presented reasonable agreement with experimental measurements. An experimental arrangement using the IEA-R1 reactor to determine a shielding benchmark is proposed. (Author)

  2. Maximum Loss Calculation using Scenario Analysis, Heavy Tails and Implied Volatility Patterns

    OpenAIRE

    Söderman, Ronnie

    2000-01-01

    The objective of this paper is to improve option risk monitoring by examining the information content of implied volatility and by introducing the calculation of a single-sum expected risk exposure similar to the Value-at-Risk. The figure is calculated in two steps. First, there is a need to estimate the value of a portfolio of options for a number of different market scenarios, while the second step is to summarize the information content of the estimated scenarios into a single-sum risk mea...

  3. PLUTONIUM/HIGH-LEVEL VITRIFIED WASTE BDBE DOSE CALCULATION

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The purpose of this calculation is to provide a dose consequence analysis of high-level waste (HLW) consisting of plutonium immobilized in vitrified HLW to be handled at the proposed Monitored Geologic Repository at Yucca Mountain for a beyond design basis event (BDBE) under expected conditions using best estimate values for each calculation parameter. In addition to the dose calculation, a plutonium respirable particle size for dose calculation use is derived. The current concept for this waste form is plutonium disks enclosed in cans immobilized in canisters of vitrified HLW (i.e., glass). The plutonium inventory at risk used for this calculation is selected from Plutonium Immobilization Project Input for Yucca Mountain Total Systems Performance Assessment (Shaw 1999). The BDBE examined in this calculation is a nonmechanistic initiating event and the sequence of events that follow to cause a radiological release. This analysis will provide the radiological releases and dose consequences for a postulated BDBE. Results may be considered in other analyses to determine or modify the safety classification and quality assurance level of repository structures, systems, and components. This calculation uses best available technical information because the BDBE frequency is very low (i.e., less than 1.0E-6 events/year) and is not required for License Application for the Monitored Geologic Repository. The results of this calculation will not be used as part of a licensing or design basis

  4. Cognitive Reflection Versus Calculation in Decision Making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aleksandr eSinayev

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Scores on the three-item Cognitive Reflection Test (CRT have been linked with dual-system theory and normative decision making (Frederick, 2005. In particular, the CRT is thought to measure monitoring of System 1 intuitions such that, if cognitive reflection is high enough, intuitive errors will be detected and the problem will be solved. However, CRT items also require numeric ability to be answered correctly and it is unclear how much numeric ability vs. cognitive reflection contributes to better decision making. In two studies, CRT responses were used to calculate Cognitive Reflection and numeric ability; a numeracy scale was also administered. Numeric ability, measured on the CRT or the numeracy scale, accounted for the CRT’s ability to predict more normative decisions (a subscale of decision-making competence, incentivized measures of impatient and risk-averse choice, and self-reported financial outcomes; Cognitive Reflection contributed no independent predictive power. Results were similar whether the two abilities were modeled (Study 1 or calculated using proportions (Studies 1 and 2. These findings demonstrate numeric ability as a robust predictor of superior decision making across multiple tasks and outcomes. They also indicate that correlations of decision performance with the CRT are insufficient evidence to implicate overriding intuitions in the decision-making biases and outcomes we examined. Numeric ability appears to be the key mechanism instead.

  5. Ab Initio Calculations of Oxosulfatovanadates

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frøberg, Torben; Johansen, Helge

    1996-01-01

    Restricted Hartree-Fock and multi-configurational self-consistent-field calculations together with secondorder perturbation theory have been used to study the geometry, the electron density, and the electronicspectrum of (VO2SO4)-. A bidentate sulphate attachment to vanadium was found to be stable...... with anO-V-O angle of 72.5 degrees . The calculated spectrum shows bands in reasonable agreement with anexperimental spectrum which has been attributed to (VO2SO4)-. The geometry and the electron density fortwo binuclear vanadium complexes proposed as intermediates in the vanadium catalyzed SO2...

  6. Data Acquisition and Flux Calculations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rebmann, C.; Kolle, O; Heinesch, B;

    2012-01-01

    In this chapter, the basic theory and the procedures used to obtain turbulent fluxes of energy, mass, and momentum with the eddy covariance technique will be detailed. This includes a description of data acquisition, pretreatment of high-frequency data and flux calculation.......In this chapter, the basic theory and the procedures used to obtain turbulent fluxes of energy, mass, and momentum with the eddy covariance technique will be detailed. This includes a description of data acquisition, pretreatment of high-frequency data and flux calculation....

  7. Design basis accident calculation problems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sudden failures of the primary circuit is the design basis accident of pressurized water reactors, being liable to affect the other two barriers separating the fission products from the environment. The calculation of the thermohydraulic behavior of the core and primary circuit is at present based, for the CEA, on the RELAP 4 code. However a second-generation code, POSEIDON, is being developed by the CEA, EDF and FRAMATOME to obtain a better description of the physical phenomena and a better estimate of safety margins. Other difficult problems arise in connection with the calculation of structural stresses and the behavior of the vessel during decompression

  8. Friction and wear calculation methods

    CERN Document Server

    Kragelsky, I V; Kombalov, V S

    1981-01-01

    Friction and Wear: Calculation Methods provides an introduction to the main theories of a new branch of mechanics known as """"contact interaction of solids in relative motion."""" This branch is closely bound up with other sciences, especially physics and chemistry. The book analyzes the nature of friction and wear, and some theoretical relationships that link the characteristics of the processes and the properties of the contacting bodies essential for practical application of the theories in calculating friction forces and wear values. The effect of the environment on friction and wear is a

  9. Molecular calculations with B functions

    CERN Document Server

    Steinborn, E O; Ema, I; López, R; Ramírez, G

    1998-01-01

    A program for molecular calculations with B functions is reported and its performance is analyzed. All the one- and two-center integrals, and the three-center nuclear attraction integrals are computed by direct procedures, using previously developed algorithms. The three- and four-center electron repulsion integrals are computed by means of Gaussian expansions of the B functions. A new procedure for obtaining these expansions is also reported. Some results on full molecular calculations are included to show the capabilities of the program and the quality of the B functions to represent the electronic functions in molecules.

  10. Contradictions Between Risk Management and Sustainable Development

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Olsen, Odd Einar; Langhelle, Oluf; Engen, Ole A. [Univ. of Stavanger (Norway). Dept. of Media, Culture and Social Science

    2006-09-15

    The aim of this paper is to discuss how risk management as a methodology and mindset influence on priorities and decisions concerning sustainable development. Management of risks and hazards often rely on partial analysis with a limited time frame. This may lead to a paradoxical situation where risk management and extended use of risk analysis could hamper long term sustainable development. The question is: Does the use of risk and vulnerability analysis (RaV-analysis) hamper or contribute to sustainable development? Because risk management and assessment has a more narrow scope and a limited time perspective based on well established methodologies, the tangible impacts of risk reducing measures in a project is easier to calculate than long-term and intangible impacts on global development. Empirical evidence is still scarce, but our preliminary conclusion is that mainstream risk management and assessments is counterproductive to sustainable development.

  11. Contradictions Between Risk Management and Sustainable Development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The aim of this paper is to discuss how risk management as a methodology and mindset influence on priorities and decisions concerning sustainable development. Management of risks and hazards often rely on partial analysis with a limited time frame. This may lead to a paradoxical situation where risk management and extended use of risk analysis could hamper long term sustainable development. The question is: Does the use of risk and vulnerability analysis (RaV-analysis) hamper or contribute to sustainable development? Because risk management and assessment has a more narrow scope and a limited time perspective based on well established methodologies, the tangible impacts of risk reducing measures in a project is easier to calculate than long-term and intangible impacts on global development. Empirical evidence is still scarce, but our preliminary conclusion is that mainstream risk management and assessments is counterproductive to sustainable development

  12. Visualization tools for insurance risk processes

    OpenAIRE

    Krzysztof Burnecki; Rafal Weron

    2006-01-01

    This chapter develops on risk processes which, perhaps, are most suitable for computer visualization of all insurance objects. At the same time, risk processes are basic instruments for any non-life actuary – they are vital for calculating the amount of loss that an insurance company may incur.

  13. Managing Risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Osborn, John E.

    2006-01-01

    Colleges and universities face a wide range of environmental risk. In spite of this, with proper planning, they can avoid emergencies or surprises. Advanced planning, coupled with strategic, technical environmental and legal advice, enable higher-education institutions to keep their environmental budgets under control and predictable. This article…

  14. Uses of risk importance measures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Risk importance measures provide an understandable and practical way of presenting probabilistic safety analysis results which too often tend to remain abstract numbers without real insight into the content. The report clarifies the definitions, relationships and interpretations of the three most basic measures: Risk increase factor, risk decrease factor, and fractional contribution. The above three measures already cover the main types of risk importance measures. Many other importance measures presented in literature are close variants to some of these three measures. They are related in many cases so that, for a technical system considered, the two other measures can be derived from the one calculated first. However, the practical interpretations are different, and hence each three measures have their own uses and rights to existence. The fundamental aspect of importance measures is, that they express some specific influence of a basic event on the total risk. The basic failure or error events are the elements from which the reliability and risk models are constituted. The importance measures are relative, which is an advantage compared to absolute risk numbers, due to insensitivity with respect to quantification uncertainties. Therefore they are particularly adapted to give first hand guidance where to focus main interest from the system's risk and reliability point of view and wherefrom to continue the analysis with more sophisticated methods requiring more effort

  15. The Architecture of Financial Risk Management Systems

    OpenAIRE

    Iosif ZIMAN

    2013-01-01

    The architecture of systems dedicated to risk management is probably one of the more complex tasks to tackle in the world of finance. Financial risk has been at the center of attention since the explosive growth of financial markets and even more so after the 2008 financial crisis. At multiple levels, financial companies, financial regulatory bodies, governments and cross-national regulatory bodies, all have put the subject of financial risk in particular and the way it is calculated, managed...

  16. ITER Port Interspace Pressure Calculations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carbajo, Juan J [ORNL; Van Hove, Walter A [ORNL

    2016-01-01

    The ITER Vacuum Vessel (VV) is equipped with 54 access ports. Each of these ports has an opening in the bioshield that communicates with a dedicated port cell. During Tokamak operation, the bioshield opening must be closed with a concrete plug to shield the radiation coming from the plasma. This port plug separates the port cell into a Port Interspace (between VV closure lid and Port Plug) on the inner side and the Port Cell on the outer side. This paper presents calculations of pressures and temperatures in the ITER (Ref. 1) Port Interspace after a double-ended guillotine break (DEGB) of a pipe of the Tokamak Cooling Water System (TCWS) with high temperature water. It is assumed that this DEGB occurs during the worst possible conditions, which are during water baking operation, with water at a temperature of 523 K (250 C) and at a pressure of 4.4 MPa. These conditions are more severe than during normal Tokamak operation, with the water at 398 K (125 C) and 2 MPa. Two computer codes are employed in these calculations: RELAP5-3D Version 4.2.1 (Ref. 2) to calculate the blowdown releases from the pipe break, and MELCOR, Version 1.8.6 (Ref. 3) to calculate the pressures and temperatures in the Port Interspace. A sensitivity study has been performed to optimize some flow areas.

  17. On calculation of photoneutron yields

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A simple analytical expression has been obtained for the photon track lengths in the region of nuclei giant resonance by summing the cross-sections of the bremsstrahlung from thin layers. The photoneutron yields from thick Cu and Pb targets calculated for verifying this expression are in a good agreement with the experimental results obtained by other authors

  18. Dead reckoning calculating without instruments

    CERN Document Server

    Doerfler, Ronald W

    1993-01-01

    No author has gone as far as Doerfler in covering methods of mental calculation beyond simple arithmetic. Even if you have no interest in competing with computers you'll learn a great deal about number theory and the art of efficient computer programming. -Martin Gardner

  19. Sparsifying preconditioner for soliton calculations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Jianfeng; Ying, Lexing

    2016-06-01

    We develop a robust and efficient method for soliton calculations for nonlinear Schrödinger equations. The method is based on the recently developed sparsifying preconditioner combined with Newton's iterative method. The performance of the method is demonstrated by numerical examples of gap solitons in the context of nonlinear optics.

  20. Relativistic multiple scattering Xα calculations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A one component relativistic theory has recently been developed and tested on isolated atoms and on molecules through the molecular scattered-wave formalism of Johnson, while its application to energy-band calculations (through a relativistic augmented-plane-wave program) has also been considered

  1. CALCULATION OF MAGNETIC OIL CLARIFIER

    OpenAIRE

    Puzik, S. O.; National Aviation University; Shevchuk, V. S.; National Aviation University; Baranivskiy, Y. O.; National Aviation University; Mykhailenko, O. O.; National Aviation University

    2013-01-01

    Technology of oil cleaning from iron-containing impurities that shows the feasibility of magnetic cleaners applying was investigated. Comparative analysis of the types of magnetic clarifier was carried out. Procedure of calculating the dimension type of oil clarifier, which makes it possible to obtain high purity grade oil, was offered.

  2. Sparsifying preconditioner for soliton calculations

    CERN Document Server

    Lu, Jianfeng

    2015-01-01

    We develop a robust and efficient method for soliton calculations for nonlinear Schr\\"odinger equations. The method is based on the recently developed sparsifying preconditioner combined with Newton's iterative method. The performance of the method is demonstrated by numerical examples of gap solitons in the context of nonlinear optics.

  3. Sous le signe du calcul

    OpenAIRE

    Giavitto, Jean-Louis; Reichenmann, François

    2012-01-01

    Alan Turing a non seulement défini l'objet d'étude de l'informatique, le calcul, mais aussi révolutionné notre rapport aux machines. Il a fondé l'informatique comme un domaine scientifique autonome et a ouvert le chemin vers un nouveau continent à explorer et à habiter.

  4. Professional Growth & Support Spending Calculator

    Science.gov (United States)

    Education Resource Strategies, 2013

    2013-01-01

    This "Professional Growth & Support Spending Calculator" helps school systems quantify all current spending aimed at improving teaching effectiveness. Part I provides worksheets to analyze total investment. Part II provides a system for evaluating investments based on purpose, target group, and delivery. In this Spending Calculator…

  5. AGING FACILITY CRITICALITY SAFETY CALCULATIONS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The purpose of this design calculation is to revise and update the previous criticality calculation for the Aging Facility (documented in BSC 2004a). This design calculation will also demonstrate and ensure that the storage and aging operations to be performed in the Aging Facility meet the criticality safety design criteria in the ''Project Design Criteria Document'' (Doraswamy 2004, Section 4.9.2.2), and the functional nuclear criticality safety requirement described in the ''SNF Aging System Description Document'' (BSC [Bechtel SAIC Company] 2004f, p. 3-12). The scope of this design calculation covers the systems and processes for aging commercial spent nuclear fuel (SNF) and staging Department of Energy (DOE) SNF/High-Level Waste (HLW) prior to its placement in the final waste package (WP) (BSC 2004f, p. 1-1). Aging commercial SNF is a thermal management strategy, while staging DOE SNF/HLW will make loading of WPs more efficient (note that aging DOE SNF/HLW is not needed since these wastes are not expected to exceed the thermal limits form emplacement) (BSC 2004f, p. 1-2). The description of the changes in this revised document is as follows: (1) Include DOE SNF/HLW in addition to commercial SNF per the current ''SNF Aging System Description Document'' (BSC 2004f). (2) Update the evaluation of Category 1 and 2 event sequences for the Aging Facility as identified in the ''Categorization of Event Sequences for License Application'' (BSC 2004c, Section 7). (3) Further evaluate the design and criticality controls required for a storage/aging cask, referred to as MGR Site-specific Cask (MSC), to accommodate commercial fuel outside the content specification in the Certificate of Compliance for the existing NRC-certified storage casks. In addition, evaluate the design required for the MSC that will accommodate DOE SNF/HLW. This design calculation will achieve the objective of providing the criticality safety results to support the preliminary design of the Aging

  6. A comparison of risk aversion between markets

    OpenAIRE

    Tavares, José Pedro Moura

    2013-01-01

    In this study we perform a comparison between the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the FTSE 100 indexes concerning their estimated risk aversions. Risk neutral densities are calculated for both indexes using a polynomial-lognormal, a GB2 and a mixture of two lognormal distributions; we show that the best fit to observed data is obtained using the latter. For the method of best fit, and assuming a power utility function, the risk aversion of investors is calculated using a maximum likelihood m...

  7. Health risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Longstreth, J; de Gruijl, F R; Kripke, M L; Abseck, S; Arnold, F; Slaper, H I; Velders, G; Takizawa, Y; van der Leun, J C

    1998-10-01

    The health risks associated with ozone depletion will principally be those due to increased ultraviolet B (UV-B) radiation in the environment, i.e., increased damage to the eyes, the immune system, and the skin. Some new risks may also be introduced with the increased use of alternatives to the ozone-depleting substances (ODSs). Quantitative risk estimates are available for some of the UV-B-associated effects, e.g., cataract and skin cancer; however, the data are insufficient to develop similar estimates for effects such as immunosuppression and the toxicity of alternatives. Ocular damage from UV exposures includes effects on the cornea, lens, iris, and associated epithelial and conjunctival tissues. The most common acute ocular effect of environmental ultraviolet radiation (UVR) is photokeratitis. Also known as snowblindness in skiers, this condition also occurs in other outdoor recreationists. Chronic eye conditions likely to increase with ozone depletion include cataract, squamous cell carcinoma, ocular melanoma, and a variety of corneal/conjunctival effects, e.g., pterygium and pinguecula. Suppression of local (at the site of UV exposure) and systemic (at a distant, unexposed site) immune responses to a variety of antigens has been demonstrated in both humans and animals exposed to UV-B. In experiments with animals these effects have been shown to worsen the course/outcome of some infectious diseases and cancers. There is reasonably good evidence that such immunosuppression plays a role in human carcinogenesis; however, the implications of such immunosuppression for human infectious diseases are still unknown. In light-skinned populations, exposure to solar UVR appears to be the most important environmental risk factor for basal and squamous cell carcinomas and cutaneous melanoma. Originally it was believed that total accumulated exposure to UVR was the most important environmental factor in determining risk for these tumors. Recent information now suggests

  8. Development of model for insurance risk management and its application to insurance companies operating in the Serbian market

    OpenAIRE

    Mirjana M. Ilic; Veselin Avdalovic; Milica D. Obadovic

    2011-01-01

    The literature on the topic of risk management in insurance generally separately treat insurance risk and insurance company risk, however such a separate treatment of risk excludes a third type of risk which is defined here, that is the risk of incorrectly calculating insurance risk, which causes uncertainties and disruptions in the operations of an insurance company and its concept of risk management arising from its activities. This paper presents a Model developed for insurance risk manage...

  9. Managing total corporate electricity/energy market risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The banking industry has developed a tool kit of very useful value at risk techniques for hedging risk, but these techniques must be adapted to the special complexities of the electricity market. This paper starts with a short history of the use of value-at-risk (VAR) techniques in banking risk management and then examines the specific and, in many instances, complex risk management challenges faced by electric companies from the behavior of prices in electricity markets and from the character of generation and electric retailing risks. The third section describes the main methods for making VAR calculations along with an analysis of their suitability for analyzing the risks of electricity portfolios and the case for using profit at risk and downside risk as measures of risk. The final section draws the threads together and explains how to look at managing total corporate electricity market risk, which is a big step toward managing total corporate energy market risk

  10. Calculation and Updating of Reliability Parameters in Probabilistic Safety Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zubair, Muhammad; Zhang, Zhijian; Khan, Salah Ud Din

    2011-02-01

    The internal events of nuclear power plant are complex and include equipment maintenance, equipment damage etc. These events will affect the probability of the current risk level of the system as well as the reliability of the equipment parameter values so such kind of events will serve as an important basis for systematic analysis and calculation. This paper presents a method for reliability parameters calculation and their updating. The method is based on binomial likelihood function and its conjugate beta distribution. For update parameters Bayes' theorem has been selected. To implement proposed method a computer base program is designed which provide help to estimate reliability parameters.

  11. Calculation of plantar pressure time integral, an alternative approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melai, Tom; IJzerman, T Herman; Schaper, Nicolaas C; de Lange, Ton L H; Willems, Paul J B; Meijer, Kenneth; Lieverse, Aloysius G; Savelberg, Hans H C M

    2011-07-01

    In plantar pressure measurement, both peak pressure and pressure time integral are used as variables to assess plantar loading. However, pressure time integral shows a high concordance with peak pressure. Many researchers and clinicians use Novel software (Novel GmbH Inc., Munich, Germany) that calculates this variable as the summation of the products of peak pressure and duration per time sample, which is not a genuine integral of pressure over time. Therefore, an alternative calculation method was introduced. The aim of this study was to explore the relevance of this alternative method, in different populations. Plantar pressure variables were measured in 76 people with diabetic polyneuropathy, 33 diabetic controls without polyneuropathy and 19 healthy subjects. Peak pressure and pressure time integral were obtained using Novel software. The quotient of the genuine force time integral over contact area was obtained as the alternative pressure time integral calculation. This new alternative method correlated less with peak pressure than the pressure time integral as calculated by Novel. The two methods differed significantly and these differences varied between the foot sole areas and between groups. The largest differences were found under the metatarsal heads in the group with diabetic polyneuropathy. From a theoretical perspective, the alternative approach provides a more valid calculation of the pressure time integral. In addition, this study showed that the alternative calculation is of added value, along peak pressure calculation, to interpret adapted plantar pressures patterns in particular in patients at risk for foot ulceration. PMID:21737281

  12. Application of probabilistic risk assessment to reprocessing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Savannah River Laboratory uses probabilistic methods of risk assessment in safety analyses of reprocessing facilities at the Savannah River Plant. This method uses both the probability of an accident and its consequence to calculate the risks from radiological, chemical, and industrial hazards. The three principal steps in such an assesment are identification of accidents, calculation of frequencies, and consequence quantification. The tools used at SRL include several databanks, logic tree methods, and computer-assisted methods for calculating both frequencies and consequences. 5 figures

  13. Calculation of potassium critical temperature

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The paper describes the algorithm of the functional prediction which is based on the selforganization of nonlinear algebraic models. The calculation procedure includes the module for the recognition of the dependence type hitch allows to restrict the number of choice of the prediction functions at the each step of the model building. The characteristic property of this algorithm is bootstrap method application as the external criteria of the selforganization. The calculation module is built using APL*PLUS and the user-friendly interface is implemented using Clipper 5.01 under Windows control. When using the algorithm and the programs, the critical point of potassium has been predicted on the base of the solubility curves of liquid and steam. 9 refs.; 1 fig.; 1 tab

  14. Algorithm project weight calculation aircraft

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Г. В. Абрамова

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available The paper describes the process of a complex technical object design on the example of the aircraft, using information technology such as CAD/CAM/CAE-systems, presents the basic models of aircraft which are developed in the process of designing and reflect the different aspects of its structure and function. The idea of control parametric model at complex technical object design is entered, which is a set of initial data for the development of design stations and enables the optimal complex technical object control at all stages of design using modern computer technology. The paper discloses a process of weight design, which is associated with all stages of development aircraft and its production. Usage of a scheduling algorithm that allows to organize weight calculations are carried out at various stages of planning and weighing options to optimize the use of available database of formulas and methods of calculation

  15. CONTRIBUTION FOR MINING ATMOSPHERE CALCULATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Franica Trojanović

    1989-12-01

    Full Text Available Humid air is an unavoidable feature of mining atmosphere, which plays a significant role in defining the climate conditions as well as permitted circumstances for normal mining work. Saturated humid air prevents heat conduction from the human body by means of evaporation. Consequently, it is of primary interest in the mining practice to establish the relative air humidity either by means of direct or indirect methods. Percentage of water in the surrounding air may be determined in various procedures including tables, diagrams or particular calculations, where each technique has its specific advantages and disadvantages. Classical calculation is done according to Sprung's formula, in which case partial steam pressure should also be taken from the steam table. The new method without the use of diagram or tables, established on the functional relation of pressure and temperature on saturated line, is presented here for the first time (the paper is published in Croatian.

  16. Consolidated fuel decay heat calculations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wittekind, W.D.

    1994-06-24

    The radiological decay heat generated from all irradiated fuel presently in K East (KE) and K West (KW) Basins was calculated in support of consolidated fuel storage. There are four sources of heat inflow into the fuel storage basins: (1) radiological decay heat from irradiated fuel; (2) mechanical heat from operating machinery (e.g., pumps); (3) heat flow from surroundings (mainly the ground through the concrete walls into the basin water if it is maintained below ambient); and (4) exothermic chemical reactions of uranium oxidation (although at basin temperatures this reaction rate is slow). This report details the radiological decay heat from irradiated fuel source in the K basins. Decay heat calculations using ORIGEN2 (Wittekind 1994 and Schmittroth 1993) for irradiated fuel presently (April 1994) in KE and KW Basins gave results for January 31 of each year.

  17. Calculation of Hilbert Borcherds Products

    OpenAIRE

    Mayer, Sebastian

    2010-01-01

    In Brunier and Bundschuh, “On Borcherds Products Associated with Lattices of Prime Discriminant.” Ramanujan Journal 7 (2003), 49–61, the authors use Borcherds lifts to obtain Hilbert modular forms. Another approach is to calculate Hilbert modular forms using the Jacquet--Langlands correspondence, which was implemented by Lassina Dembele in "Magma". In Mayer, "Rings of Hilbert Modular Forms for the Fields $\\Q(\\sqrt{13})$ and $\\Q(\\sqrt{17})$,'' To appear, 2009, we use Brunier and...

  18. Numerical calculation of Casimir forces

    OpenAIRE

    Kilen, Isak Ragnvald

    2012-01-01

    In this thesis a set of regularized boundary integral equation are introduced that can be used to calculate the Casimir force induced by a two dimensional scalar field. The boundary integral method is compared to the functional integral method and mode summation where possible. Comparisons are done for the case of two parallel plates, two concentric circles and two adjacent circles. The results indicate that the boundary integral method correctly predicts the geometry dependence of the C...

  19. Calculations of the Wigner angle

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Two new methods to determine Wigner's angle in special relativity are presented. The first one consists in calculating the angle between the compositions u-bar x ν-bar and ν-bar x u-bar of the two non-collinear velocities u-bar and ν-bar. In another method we introduce a generalization in the complex plane of Einstein's addition law of parallel velocities. (author)

  20. Archimedes' calculations of square roots

    CERN Document Server

    Davies, E B

    2011-01-01

    We reconsider Archimedes' evaluations of several square roots in 'Measurement of a Circle'. We show that several methods proposed over the last century or so for his evaluations fail one or more criteria of plausibility. We also provide internal evidence that he probably used an interpolation technique. The conclusions are relevant to the precise calculations by which he obtained upper and lower bounds on pi.

  1. Parallel plasma fluid turbulence calculations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The study of plasma turbulence and transport is a complex problem of critical importance for fusion-relevant plasmas. To this day, the fluid treatment of plasma dynamics is the best approach to realistic physics at the high resolution required for certain experimentally relevant calculations. Core and edge turbulence in a magnetic fusion device have been modeled using state-of-the-art, nonlinear, three-dimensional, initial-value fluid and gyrofluid codes. Parallel implementation of these models on diverse platforms--vector parallel (National Energy Research Supercomputer Center's CRAY Y-MP C90), massively parallel (Intel Paragon XP/S 35), and serial parallel (clusters of high-performance workstations using the Parallel Virtual Machine protocol)--offers a variety of paths to high resolution and significant improvements in real-time efficiency, each with its own advantages. The largest and most efficient calculations have been performed at the 200 Mword memory limit on the C90 in dedicated mode, where an overlap of 12 to 13 out of a maximum of 16 processors has been achieved with a gyrofluid model of core fluctuations. The richness of the physics captured by these calculations is commensurate with the increased resolution and efficiency and is limited only by the ingenuity brought to the analysis of the massive amounts of data generated

  2. Decay heat calculations for reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Estimation of release of energy (decay heat) over an extended period of time after termination of neutron induced fission is necessary for determining the heat removal requirements when the reactor is shutdown, and for fuel storage and transport facilities as well as for accident studies. The method of decay heat estimation relies on the measurements over practical time intervals as well as on calculation for predictions over very long time intervals. Neutron cross-sections, fission yields and decay data together with operational history are the basic inputs to such. A code used to calculate decay heat would require to generate isotopic inventory that would be present at the shutdown based on operational history of the reactor and follow up the decay over an extended period of time. Aspects of decay heat estimation based on standards like ANS 5.1 and by fuel cycle analysis codes shall be discussed. A Fuel Cycle Analysis Code, ADWITA (Activation, Decay, Waste Incineration and Transmutation Analysis) which can generate inventory based on irradiation history and calculate radioactivity and decay heat for extended period of cooling, has been written. The method and data involved in Fuel Cycle Analysis Code ADWITA and some results obtained shall also be presented. (author)

  3. Calculation of groundwater travel time

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pre-waste-emplacement groundwater travel time is one indicator of the isolation capability of the geologic system surrounding a repository. Two distinct modeling approaches exist for prediction of groundwater flow paths and travel times from the repository location to the designated accessible environment boundary. These two approaches are: (1) the deterministic approach which calculates a single value prediction of groundwater travel time based on average values for input parameters and (2) the stochastic approach which yields a distribution of possible groundwater travel times as a function of the nature and magnitude of uncertainties in the model inputs. The purposes of this report are to (1) document the theoretical (i.e., mathematical) basis used to calculate groundwater pathlines and travel times in a basalt system, (2) outline limitations and ranges of applicability of the deterministic modeling approach, and (3) explain the motivation for the use of the stochastic modeling approach currently being used to predict groundwater pathlines and travel times for the Hanford Site. Example calculations of groundwater travel times are presented to highlight and compare the differences between the deterministic and stochastic modeling approaches. 28 refs

  4. [IOL calculation for high ametropia].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haigis, W

    2008-11-01

    Long and short eyes are connected with high ametropia and constitute special problems for biometry and IOL calculations. Ultrasound measurements on these eyes, which often have altered geometries, are frequently more difficult than in normal eyes. This holds especially for long eyes, which significantly benefit from optical biometry. Measurement errors, IOL manufacturing tolerances and uncertainties regarding the effective lens position affect short eyes much more than normal eyes. The selection of a suitable IOL formula is of special importance for the refractive outcome. For short eyes, Holladay-2, HofferQ and Haigis are recommended, for long eyes Holladay-1, Holladay-2 and Haigis. In each case, optimized IOL constants must be used. If minus lenses for extremely long eyes are calculated with the same constants as plus lenses, a hyperopic refractive error is created, which can be avoided by a separate set of constants for minus lenses. For extremely short eyes the commonly used approximation of thinner lenses fails necessitating a thick lens calculation or raytracing. PMID:18998145

  5. At-Risk-of-Poverty Threshold

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Táňa Dvornáková

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available European Statistics on Income and Living Conditions (EU-SILC is a survey on households’ living conditions. The main aim of the survey is to get long-term comparable data on social and economic situation of households. Data collected in the survey are used mainly in connection with the evaluation of income poverty and determinationof at-risk-of-poverty rate. This article deals with the calculation of the at risk-of-poverty threshold based on data from EU-SILC 2009. The main task is to compare two approaches to the computation of at riskof-poverty threshold. The first approach is based on the calculation of the threshold for each country separately,while the second one is based on the calculation of the threshold for all states together. The introduction summarizes common attributes in the calculation of the at-risk-of-poverty threshold, such as disposable household income, equivalised household income. Further, different approaches to both calculations are introduced andadvantages and disadvantages of these approaches are stated. Finally, the at-risk-of-poverty rate calculation is described and comparison of the at-risk-of-poverty rates based on these two different approaches is made.

  6. A Risk Radar driven by Internet of intelligences serving for emergency management in community.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Chongfu; Wu, Tong; Renn, Ortwin

    2016-07-01

    Today, most of the commercial risk radars only have the function to show risks, as same as a set of risk matrixes. In this paper, we develop the Internet of intelligences (IOI) to drive a risk radar monitoring dynamic risks for emergency management in community. An IOI scans risks in a community by 4 stages: collecting information and experience about risks; evaluating risk incidents; verifying; and showing risks. Employing the information diffusion method, we optimized to deal with the effective information for calculating risk value. Also, a specific case demonstrates the reliability and practicability of risk radar. PMID:27005588

  7. Core damage risk indicators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The purpose of this document is to show a method for the fast recalculation of the PSA. To avoid the information loose, it is necessary to simplify the PSA models, or at least reorganize them. The method, introduced in this document, require that preparation, so we try to show, how to do that. This document is an introduction. This is the starting point of the work related to the development of the risk indicators. In the future, with the application of this method, we are going to show an everyday use of the PSA results to produce the indicators of the core damage risk. There are two different indicators of the plant safety performance, related to the core damage risk. The first is the core damage frequency indicator (CDFI), and the second is the core damage probability indicator (CDPI). Of course, we cannot describe all of the possible ways to use these indicators, rather we will try to introduce the requirements to establish such an indicator system and the calculation process

  8. Dietary burden calculations relating to fish metabolism studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schlechtriem, Christian; Pucher, Johannes; Michalski, Britta

    2016-03-30

    Fish farming is increasingly dependent on plant commodities as a source of feed leading to an increased risk for pesticide residues in aquaculture diets and consequently their transfer into aquaculture food products. The European pesticide regulation requires fish metabolism and fish feeding studies where residues in fish feed exceed 0.1 mg kg(-1) of the total diet (dry weight basis) to enable the setting of appropriate maximum residue levels in fish commodities. Fish dietary burden calculation is therefore an important prerequisite to decide on further experimental testing as part of the consumer risk assessment. In this review, the different aquaculture production systems are compared with regard to their specific feeding practices and the principles of dietary burden calculation are described. PMID:26749492

  9. Acceleration and increased control of convergence in criticality calculations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    IRSN is developing a numerical simulation code called Moret to assess the nuclear criticality risk. This tool is designed to perform 3D simulations of neutron transport in a given system. It achieves this by adopting a probabilistic approach known as Monte Carlo, in which the transport of several successive generations of neutrons is calculated from an initial neutron distribution in the system under study. These generations are simulated until it is considered that convergence of the effective neutron multiplication coefficient (or Keff) - which characterizes the gap before reaching the critical state - has been reached. Insufficient convergence can lead to underestimation of both Keff and the criticality risk. During this thesis work, A. Jinaphanh sought to improve the reliability of values by developing a new method for initializing calculations, together with a criterion used to reliably determine whether or not convergence has been reached. (author)

  10. Seismic Hazard and Risk Assessment for Georgia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsereteli, Nino; Varazanashvili, Otar; Arabidze, Vakhtang; Gugeshashvili, Tengiz; Mukhadze, Teimuraz; Gvencadze, Aleksandre

    2014-05-01

    Risks of natural hazards caused by natural disaster are closely related to the development process of society. The high level of natural disasters in many countries makes necessary to work out the national programs and strategy. The main goal of these programs is to reduce the natural disasters risk and caused losses. Risk mitigation is the cornerstone of the approach to reduce the nation's vulnerability to disasters from natural hazards. So proper investigation and assessment of natural hazards and vulnerability of the element at risk to hazards is very important for an effective and proper assessment of risk. This work issues a call for advance planning and action to reduce natural disaster risks, notably seismic risk through the investigation of vulnerability and seismic hazard for Georgia. Firstly, detail inventory map of element at risk was created. Here elements at risk are comprised of buildings and population. Secondly, seismic hazard maps were calculated based on modern approach of selecting and ranking global and regional ground motion prediction equation for region. Thirdly, on the bases of empirical data that was collected for some earthquake intensity based vulnerability study were completed for Georgian buildings. Finally, probabilistic seismic risk assessment in terms of structural damage and casualties were calculated for the territory of Georgia using obtained results. This methodology gave prediction of damage and casualty for a given probability of recurrence, based on a probabilistic seismic hazard model, population distribution, inventory, and vulnerability of buildings.

  11. Selection of Dispersivity in Groundwater Risk Assessment

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    武晓峰; 唐杰

    2004-01-01

    The Domenico model is used in combination with ASTM E 1739 in a Tier 2 risk assessment of chlorinated organic solvents contaminated groundwater sites to predict potential contaminant concentration in groundwater down-gradient from the point of exposure (POE). A knowledge of the dispersivity parameters is necessary for carrying out this calculation. A constant longitudinal dispersivity of 10 m is often used in analytical and numerical calculation. However, because of the scale effect of dispersion, two other main approaches are currently often used. From the viewpoint of conservative principle in risk assessment, it is necessary to determine which dispersivity data will give a higher predicted concentration, corresponding to a more conservative risk calculation. Generally, it is considered that a smaller dispersivity leads to a higher predicted concentration. This assumption is correct when dispersion is the only natural attenuation factor. However, degradation of commonly encountered chlorinated organic solvents in environment under natural condition has been widely reported. Calculations given in this paper of several representative cases show that a general consideration of the influence of dispersivity on concentration prediction is not always correct when a degradation term is included in the calculation. To give a conservative risk calculation, the scale effect of dispersion is considered. Calculations also show that the dispersivity parameters need to be determined by considering the POE distance from the source, the groundwater velocity, and the degradation rate of the contaminant.

  12. How to understand low dose risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    It is well established that those who were exposed to ionizing radiation have increased risks of developing malignancies. The magnitude of the risk varies depending on not only the dose but also age at the time of exposure, gender, background incidence rate etc. In the case of atomic bomb survivors, the relative risk of cancer is linearly related to the dose, and the sex averaged relative risk (exposure age is 30, risk calculation is when they reached age 70) is 1.5 at 1 Gy. Because the increased risks below 100 to 200 mGy are too small and not statistically significant, there are arguments in interpreting the risks at the low dose range. (author)

  13. Credit Risk and Disaster Risk

    OpenAIRE

    Gourio, François

    2013-01-01

    Macroeconomic models with financial frictions typically imply that the excess return on a well-diversified portfolio of corporate bonds is close to zero. In contrast, the empirical finance literature documents large and time-varying risk premia in the corporate bond market (the "credit spread puzzle"). This paper introduces a parsimonious real business cycle model where firms issue defaultable debt and equity to finance investment. The mix between debt and equity is determined by a trade-off ...

  14. Software Risk Management

    OpenAIRE

    Radhika Naik

    2013-01-01

    Software Risk Management is a critical area among the nine knowledge areas used in Software project management. This paper describes different frameworks and paradigms used in risk management. A framework or a model is decided for managing risks in a project. This model acts as a tool for efficient risk management. It has basic steps of Risk identification, risk planning, risk assessment, risk mitigation and risk monitoring and controlling.

  15. Critical evaluation of German regulatory specifications for calculating radiological exposure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The assessment of radiological exposure of the public is an issue at the interface between scientific findings, juridical standard setting and political decision. The present work revisits the German regulatory specifications for calculating radiological exposure, like the already existing calculation model General Administrative Provision (AVV) for planning and monitoring nuclear facilities. We address the calculation models for the recent risk assessment regarding the final disposal of radioactive waste in Germany. To do so, a two-pronged approach is pursued. One part deals with radiological examinations of the groundwater-soil-transfer path of radionuclides into the biosphere. Processes at the so-called geosphere-biosphere-interface are examined, especially migration of I-129 in the unsaturated zone. This is necessary, since the German General Administrative Provision does not consider radionuclide transport via groundwater from an underground disposal facility yet. Especially data with regard to processes in the vadose zone are scarce. Therefore, using I-125 as a tracer, immobilization and mobilization of iodine is investigated in two reference soils from the German Federal Environment Agency. The second part of this study examines how scientific findings but also measures and activities of stakeholders and concerned parties influence juridical standard setting, which is necessary for risk management. Risk assessment, which is a scientific task, includes identification and investigation of relevant sources of radiation, possible pathways to humans, and maximum extent and duration of exposure based on dose-response functions. Risk characterization identifies probability and severity of health effects. These findings have to be communicated to authorities, who have to deal with the risk management. Risk management includes, for instance, taking into account acceptability of the risk, actions to reduce, mitigate, substitute or monitor the hazard, the setting of

  16. Critical evaluation of German regulatory specifications for calculating radiological exposure

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Koenig, Claudia; Walther, Clemens [Hannover Univ. (Germany). Inst. of Radioecology; Smeddinck, Ulrich [Technische Univ. Braunschweig (Germany). Inst. of Law

    2015-07-01

    The assessment of radiological exposure of the public is an issue at the interface between scientific findings, juridical standard setting and political decision. The present work revisits the German regulatory specifications for calculating radiological exposure, like the already existing calculation model General Administrative Provision (AVV) for planning and monitoring nuclear facilities. We address the calculation models for the recent risk assessment regarding the final disposal of radioactive waste in Germany. To do so, a two-pronged approach is pursued. One part deals with radiological examinations of the groundwater-soil-transfer path of radionuclides into the biosphere. Processes at the so-called geosphere-biosphere-interface are examined, especially migration of I-129 in the unsaturated zone. This is necessary, since the German General Administrative Provision does not consider radionuclide transport via groundwater from an underground disposal facility yet. Especially data with regard to processes in the vadose zone are scarce. Therefore, using I-125 as a tracer, immobilization and mobilization of iodine is investigated in two reference soils from the German Federal Environment Agency. The second part of this study examines how scientific findings but also measures and activities of stakeholders and concerned parties influence juridical standard setting, which is necessary for risk management. Risk assessment, which is a scientific task, includes identification and investigation of relevant sources of radiation, possible pathways to humans, and maximum extent and duration of exposure based on dose-response functions. Risk characterization identifies probability and severity of health effects. These findings have to be communicated to authorities, who have to deal with the risk management. Risk management includes, for instance, taking into account acceptability of the risk, actions to reduce, mitigate, substitute or monitor the hazard, the setting of

  17. Verbal risk in communicating risk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Walters, J.C. [Northern Arizona Univ., Flagstaff, AZ (United States). School of Communication; Reno, H.W. [EG and G Idaho, Inc., Idaho Falls, ID (United States). Idaho National Engineering Lab.

    1993-03-01

    When persons in the waste management industry have a conversation concerning matters of the industry, thoughts being communicated are understood among those in the industry. However, when persons in waste management communicate with those outside the industry, communication may suffer simply because of poor practices such as the use of jargon, euphemisms, acronyms, abbreviations, language usage, not knowing audience, and public perception. This paper deals with ways the waste management industry can communicate risk to the public without obfuscating issues. The waste management industry should feel obligated to communicate certain meanings within specific contexts and, then, if the context changes, should not put forth a new, more appropriate meaning to the language already used. Communication of the waste management industry does not have to be provisional. The authors suggest verbal risks in communicating risk can be reduced significantly or eliminated by following a few basic communication principles. The authors make suggestions and give examples of ways to improve communication with the general public by avoiding or reducing jargon, euphemisms, and acronyms; knowing the audience; avoiding presumptive knowledge held by the audience; and understanding public perception of waste management issues.

  18. METHODOLOGICAL PROBLEMS OF PRACTICAL RADIOGENIC RISK ESTIMATIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Т. Gubin

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Mathematical ratios were established according to the description of the calculation procedure for the values of the nominal risk coefficient given in the ICRP Recommendations 2007. It is shown that the lifetime radiogenic risk is a linear functional from the distribution of the dose in time with a multiplier descending with age. As a consequence, application of the nominal risk coefficient in the risk calculations is justified in the case when prolonged exposure is practically evenly distributed in time, and gives a significant deviation at a single exposure. When using the additive model of radiogenic risk proposed in the UNSCEAR Report 2006 for solid cancers, this factor is almost linearly decreasing with the age, which is convenient for its practical application.

  19. Risk Assessment Study for Storage Explosive

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. S. Azhar

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available In Malaysia, there has been rapidly increasing usage in amount of explosives due to widely expansion in quarrying and mining industries. The explosives are usually stored in the storage where the safety precaution had given high attention. As the storage of large quantity of explosive can be hazardous to workers and nearby residents in the events of accidental denotation of explosives, a risk assessment study for storage explosive (magazine had been carried out. Risk assessment study had been conducted in Kimanis Quarry Sdn. Bhd, located in Sabah. Risk assessment study had been carried out with the identification of hazards and failure scenarios and estimation of the failure frequency of occurrence. Analysis of possible consequences of failure and the effects of blast waves due to the explosion was evaluated. The risk had been estimated in term of fatalities and eardrum rupture to the workers and public. The average individual voluntary risk for fatality to the workers at the quarry is calculated to be 5.75 x 10-6 per person per year, which is much lower than the acceptable level. Eardrum rupture risk calculated to be 3.15 x 10-6 per person per year for voluntary risk. There is no involuntary risk found for fatality but for eardrum rupture it was calculated to be 6.98 x 10-8 per person per year, as given by Asian Development Bank.

  20. Ascertainment and comparison of risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The author reviews the major problems arising from a comparison and an ascertainment of risks. Extensive scattering shown in the results from ten different studies reflect statistical inadequacies as well as differences in methodological approach. The controversy over renewable energy sources illustrates how the use of different criteria produce different results. Each source of energy (except coal) has practically the same number of lost working days as well as deaths per worker unit, but the risks are lower using nuclear energy as opposed to other sources if calculated pro unit or produced energy. Despite considerable uncertainty over the consequences of nuclear accidents, comparative nuclear energy shows up very favourably. (AF)

  1. AGING FACILITY CRITICALITY SAFETY CALCULATIONS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    C.E. Sanders

    2004-09-10

    The purpose of this design calculation is to revise and update the previous criticality calculation for the Aging Facility (documented in BSC 2004a). This design calculation will also demonstrate and ensure that the storage and aging operations to be performed in the Aging Facility meet the criticality safety design criteria in the ''Project Design Criteria Document'' (Doraswamy 2004, Section 4.9.2.2), and the functional nuclear criticality safety requirement described in the ''SNF Aging System Description Document'' (BSC [Bechtel SAIC Company] 2004f, p. 3-12). The scope of this design calculation covers the systems and processes for aging commercial spent nuclear fuel (SNF) and staging Department of Energy (DOE) SNF/High-Level Waste (HLW) prior to its placement in the final waste package (WP) (BSC 2004f, p. 1-1). Aging commercial SNF is a thermal management strategy, while staging DOE SNF/HLW will make loading of WPs more efficient (note that aging DOE SNF/HLW is not needed since these wastes are not expected to exceed the thermal limits form emplacement) (BSC 2004f, p. 1-2). The description of the changes in this revised document is as follows: (1) Include DOE SNF/HLW in addition to commercial SNF per the current ''SNF Aging System Description Document'' (BSC 2004f). (2) Update the evaluation of Category 1 and 2 event sequences for the Aging Facility as identified in the ''Categorization of Event Sequences for License Application'' (BSC 2004c, Section 7). (3) Further evaluate the design and criticality controls required for a storage/aging cask, referred to as MGR Site-specific Cask (MSC), to accommodate commercial fuel outside the content specification in the Certificate of Compliance for the existing NRC-certified storage casks. In addition, evaluate the design required for the MSC that will accommodate DOE SNF/HLW. This design calculation will achieve the objective of providing the

  2. Proliferation risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The report gives an overview of different aspects related to safeguards of fissile materials. Existing treaties including the Non-Proliferation Treaty, and the Tlatelolco and the Rarotonga Treaties are discussed. An overview of safeguards systems for the control of fissile materials as well as the role of various authorities is given. An overall overview of proliferation risks, the physical protection of fissile materials and the trade in fissile materials is given. Finally, the status in problem countries and de facto nuclear weapon states is discussed

  3. Balancing Risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nygaard, Lene; Rossen, Camilla Blach; Buus, Niels

    2015-01-01

    This study explored how eight pregnant women diagnosed with depression managed the decision whether or not to take antidepressants during pregnancy. In total, 11 interviews were conducted and analysed by means of constructivist grounded theory. The major category constructed was Balancing risk......, with two minor categories: Assessing depression and antidepressants and Evaluating the impact of significant others. The participants tried to make the safest decision, taking all aspects of their life into consideration. They described successful decision-making in the context of managing social norms...

  4. Publishing Risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mogens Steffensen

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available “What is complicated is not necessarily insightful and what is insightful is not necessarily complicated: Risks welcomes simple manuscripts that contribute with insight, outlook, understanding and overview”—a quote from the first editorial of this journal [1]. Good articles are not characterized by their level of complication but by their level of imagination, innovation, and power of penetration. Creativity sessions and innovative tasks are most elegant and powerful when they are delicately simple. This is why the articles you most remember are not the complicated ones that you struggled to digest, but the simpler ones you enjoyed swallowing.

  5. Calculation of gas turbine characteristic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mamaev, B. I.; Murashko, V. L.

    2016-04-01

    The reasons and regularities of vapor flow and turbine parameter variation depending on the total pressure drop rate π* and rotor rotation frequency n are studied, as exemplified by a two-stage compressor turbine of a power-generating gas turbine installation. The turbine characteristic is calculated in a wide range of mode parameters using the method in which analytical dependences provide high accuracy for the calculated flow output angle and different types of gas dynamic losses are determined with account of the influence of blade row geometry, blade surface roughness, angles, compressibility, Reynolds number, and flow turbulence. The method provides satisfactory agreement of results of calculation and turbine testing. In the design mode, the operation conditions for the blade rows are favorable, the flow output velocities are close to the optimal ones, the angles of incidence are small, and the flow "choking" modes (with respect to consumption) in the rows are absent. High performance and a nearly axial flow behind the turbine are obtained. Reduction of the rotor rotation frequency and variation of the pressure drop change the flow parameters, the parameters of the stages and the turbine, as well as the form of the characteristic. In particular, for decreased n, nonmonotonic variation of the second stage reactivity with increasing π* is observed. It is demonstrated that the turbine characteristic is mainly determined by the influence of the angles of incidence and the velocity at the output of the rows on the losses and the flow output angle. The account of the growing flow output angle due to the positive angle of incidence for decreased rotation frequencies results in a considerable change of the characteristic: poorer performance, redistribution of the pressure drop at the stages, and change of reactivities, growth of the turbine capacity, and change of the angle and flow velocity behind the turbine.

  6. Calculation of Thermal Scattering Kernels

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A long-standing programme at General Atomic has been the development of physical models to describe the scattering of slow neutrons from the various moderators and the numerical methods necessary for the computation of thermal neutron cross-sections and scattering kernels. This paper contains a review of the recent developments and improvements in the scattering descriptions and subsequent kernels for the moderators Be, C, H2O, D2O, CH2, H2 and D2. In particular for the moderators Be and C accurate phonon spectra, obtained by the root sampling technique, are presented along with comparisons to demonstrate how well the scattering models can predict the results of cross-section and spectral measurements. While the treatment of H2O is essentially that of Nelkin, curves of calculated and experimental neutron spectra are shown, which demonstrate that the inclusion of anisotropic effects for the molecular vibrations improve the agreement between theory and experiment. Following Butler's description of neutron scattering by D2O, a scattering kernel has been obtained which predicts quite accurately integral quantities such as neutron spectra and angular as well as total scattering cross-sections. An interesting result of the curves shown is that the inter- and intramolecular interference effects tend to cancel so that an incoherent approximation is quite adequate to calculate neutron spectra in D2O for the case of infinite media or weakly space-dependent problems. By utilizing the treatment by Lin and Koenig of the vibrational modes of infinite CH2 chains, a scattering kernel has been obtained which results in very good agreement between the predicted and experimental total cross-section and neutron spectra. Curves are presented to demonstrate this agreement between theory and experiment. Neutron spectra have been calculated for liquid hydrogen at boiling using a very accurate scattering description. These spectra are shown in the paper to be very sensitive both to

  7. Risk perception. A risk practitioner's view

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Much work has been done to characterize how the society perceives risks. Different models have been developed which attempt to describe the nature of processes of how risks are perceived by the public. This paper outlines two such models and proceeds to challenge risk professionals as to how they, the risk professionals, perceive risk. This self examination has the potential to facilitate the development of more effective risk communication and the development of more robust evidence for the decision makers we support. (author)

  8. Concept of risk and risk management

    OpenAIRE

    Ganiy Opeyemi Abdulrahman, Jnr

    2011-01-01

    Involvement of some individuals in risky behaviours such as unprotected sex, smoking and drug abuse is quite common. This has given rise to concepts such as ‘risk society’, ‘risk and identity’ and ‘risk management’. There are two forms of risk – external and internal. It is important to understand the concept of risk-taking and risk management, especially by the health professionals, because it facilitates the understanding of patients’ involvem...

  9. Calculational Tool for Skin Contamination Dose Assessment

    CERN Document Server

    Hill, R L

    2002-01-01

    Spreadsheet calculational tool was developed to automate the calculations preformed for dose assessment of skin contamination. This document reports on the design and testing of the spreadsheet calculational tool.

  10. Calculation of sound propagation in fibrous materials

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tarnow, Viggo

    Calculations of attenuation and velocity of audible sound waves in glass wools are presented. The calculations use only the diameters of fibres and the mass density of glass wools as parameters. The calculations are compared with measurements....

  11. Atomic physics: computer calculations and theoretical analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Drukarev, E. G.

    2004-01-01

    It is demonstrated, how the theoretical analysis preceding the numerical calculations helps to calculate the energy of the ground state of helium atom, and enables to avoid qualitative errors in the calculations of the characteristics of the double photoionization.

  12. Three-dimensional cavity calculations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The existence of a code that solves for the resonant electromagnetic modes of oscillation in arbitrarily-shaped three-dimensional cavities opens new possibilities in rf-structure analysis and research. The URMEL-3D code, the product of a multi-year collaboration between DESY, KFA-Juelich, and Los Alamos, has been used in some exploratory studies to determine the feasibility of using a 3-D code to calculate the properties of several practical rf structures. The results are reported here for three cases: the jungle gym, two coupled cavities, and a waveguide-cavity coupling problem

  13. Optimization calculations at TR-2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Full text: The main objective of the optimization calculations at TR-2 is to increase the radioisotope production (Tc-99m, I-131). Irradiation time and location were optimized separately. A second objective of this study is to obtain similar activities in the irradiated samples irrespective of the irradiation positions. This study also includes the maximization of the discharge burnup levels of the HEU elements in a mixed HEU-LEU core, so both safe and economical usage of the reactor is attained. Five group structure is used for the burnup dependent cross-section libraries that are generated by EPRI-CELL code. The RABANL integral transport option of MC2-2 code was used to accurately account for the resonance self-shielding of U-238. Transport corrected effective cross sections were used for the control rod regions. The data for Mo, Tc and Te isotopes were not available in this library, so new data were generated using GGC-4 and ANISN codes. In order to have a better understanding of the neutronic interactions, especially in the epithermal energy range, 9 group structure for the cross-section libraries of all the isotopes in the core have been generated with the fore mentioned codes. 2D diffusion-depletion code GEREBUS is used for the reactivity and burnup calculations. The 9 group calculations gave higher activity values then 5 group results, but the relative variations between different core positions remained the same, as could be expected. Many new core designs and various irradiation positions have been investigated for the above mentioned purposes. The reactor core was designed as compact as possible, in order to have higher fluxes for the irradiation samples. New graphite and Be reflectors have been added to the periphery of the core to enhance the reactivity and the discharge burnup levels. The water boxes which are used for the irradiation purposes have been moved from periphery to the inside of the reactor core. These modifications have yielded higher

  14. Calculation of transonic aileron buzz

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steger, J. L.; Bailey, H. E.

    1979-01-01

    An implicit finite-difference computer code that uses a two-layer algebraic eddy viscosity model and exact geometric specification of the airfoil has been used to simulate transonic aileron buzz. The calculated results, which were performed on both the Illiac IV parallel computer processor and the Control Data 7600 computer, are in essential agreement with the original expository wind-tunnel data taken in the Ames 16-Foot Wind Tunnel just after World War II. These results and a description of the pertinent numerical techniques are included.

  15. Rate calculation with colored noise

    CERN Document Server

    Bartsch, Thomas; Benito, R M; Borondo, F

    2016-01-01

    The usual identification of reactive trajectories for the calculation of reaction rates requires very time-consuming simulations, particularly if the environment presents memory effects. In this paper, we develop a new method that permits the identification of reactive trajectories in a system under the action of a stochastic colored driving. This method is based on the perturbative computation of the invariant structures that act as separatrices for reactivity. Furthermore, using this perturbative scheme, we have obtained a formally exact expression for the reaction rate in multidimensional systems coupled to colored noisy environments.

  16. Digital calculations of engine cycles

    CERN Document Server

    Starkman, E S; Taylor, C Fayette

    1964-01-01

    Digital Calculations of Engine Cycles is a collection of seven papers which were presented before technical meetings of the Society of Automotive Engineers during 1962 and 1963. The papers cover the spectrum of the subject of engine cycle events, ranging from an examination of composition and properties of the working fluid to simulation of the pressure-time events in the combustion chamber. The volume has been organized to present the material in a logical sequence. The first two chapters are concerned with the equilibrium states of the working fluid. These include the concentrations of var

  17. Electronics reliability calculation and design

    CERN Document Server

    Dummer, Geoffrey W A; Hiller, N

    1966-01-01

    Electronics Reliability-Calculation and Design provides an introduction to the fundamental concepts of reliability. The increasing complexity of electronic equipment has made problems in designing and manufacturing a reliable product more and more difficult. Specific techniques have been developed that enable designers to integrate reliability into their products, and reliability has become a science in its own right. The book begins with a discussion of basic mathematical and statistical concepts, including arithmetic mean, frequency distribution, median and mode, scatter or dispersion of mea

  18. Perturbation calculations with Wilson loop

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    We present perturbative calculations with the Wilson loop (WL). The dimensional regularization method is used with a special attention concerning to the problem of divergences in the WL expansion in second and fourth orders, in three and four dimensions. We show that the residue in the pole, in 4d, of the fourth order graphs contribution sum is important for the charge renormalization. We compute up to second order the exact expression of the WL, in three-dimensional gauge theories with topological mass as well as its assimptotic behaviour for small and large distances. the author

  19. The "intelligence" of calendrical calculators.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Young, R L; Nettelbeck, T

    1994-09-01

    Strategies of 4 men (WAIS-R range 65 to 76) when making calendar calculations were investigated. Each subject completed a battery of standardized psychological tests. Results suggested that subjects were aware of rules and regularities associated with the calendar, including knowledge of the 14 different calendar templates, one of which describes any calendar year. Their strategies were rigidly applied and could not be modified easily, even when doing so would have facilitated performance. The involvement of practice, memory, anchor dates, eidetic imagery, and mathematical algorithms were discussed. We concluded that these savants relied heavily on memory, with little manipulation of cognitive input, as opposed to transforming stimuli. PMID:7803035

  20. Calculation of sound propagation in fibrous materials

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tarnow, Viggo

    1996-01-01

    Calculations of attenuation and velocity of audible sound waves in glass wools are presented. The calculations use only the diameters of fibres and the mass density of glass wools as parameters. The calculations are compared with measurements.......Calculations of attenuation and velocity of audible sound waves in glass wools are presented. The calculations use only the diameters of fibres and the mass density of glass wools as parameters. The calculations are compared with measurements....

  1. Melanoma risk prediction models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nikolić Jelena

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Background/Aim. The lack of effective therapy for advanced stages of melanoma emphasizes the importance of preventive measures and screenings of population at risk. Identifying individuals at high risk should allow targeted screenings and follow-up involving those who would benefit most. The aim of this study was to identify most significant factors for melanoma prediction in our population and to create prognostic models for identification and differentiation of individuals at risk. Methods. This case-control study included 697 participants (341 patients and 356 controls that underwent extensive interview and skin examination in order to check risk factors for melanoma. Pairwise univariate statistical comparison was used for the coarse selection of the most significant risk factors. These factors were fed into logistic regression (LR and alternating decision trees (ADT prognostic models that were assessed for their usefulness in identification of patients at risk to develop melanoma. Validation of the LR model was done by Hosmer and Lemeshow test, whereas the ADT was validated by 10-fold cross-validation. The achieved sensitivity, specificity, accuracy and AUC for both models were calculated. The melanoma risk score (MRS based on the outcome of the LR model was presented. Results. The LR model showed that the following risk factors were associated with melanoma: sunbeds (OR = 4.018; 95% CI 1.724- 9.366 for those that sometimes used sunbeds, solar damage of the skin (OR = 8.274; 95% CI 2.661-25.730 for those with severe solar damage, hair color (OR = 3.222; 95% CI 1.984-5.231 for light brown/blond hair, the number of common naevi (over 100 naevi had OR = 3.57; 95% CI 1.427-8.931, the number of dysplastic naevi (from 1 to 10 dysplastic naevi OR was 2.672; 95% CI 1.572-4.540; for more than 10 naevi OR was 6.487; 95%; CI 1.993-21.119, Fitzpatricks phototype and the presence of congenital naevi. Red hair, phototype I and large congenital naevi were

  2. Calculation notes in support of TWRS FSAR spray leak accident analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hall, B.W., Westinghouse Hanford

    1996-08-05

    This document includes the calculations needed to quantify the risk associated with unmitigated and mitigated pressurized spray releases from tank farm transfer equipment inside transfer enclosures. The calculations within this document support the spray leak accident analysis reported in the TWRS FSAR.

  3. Risk analysis: toward a standard method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The wide range of claims about the comparative risks of energy technologies is due as much to the immature development of the risk-assessment trade as to the scarcity of health and accident statistics. The risks of different systems often are not only compared inconsistently, but are calculated in a manner inappropriate to the decisions being made about energy technologies. Without a carefully constructed and agreed-upon framework for tabulating risks, it is possible to come to nearly any conclusion about comparative hazards. However, adherence to a few straightforward rules (some borrowed from financial accounting) is sufficient to ensure consistency

  4. Risk and Returns to Education Over Time

    OpenAIRE

    Brown, Jeffrey; Fang, Chichun; Francisco J. Gomes

    2015-01-01

    We model education as an investment in human capital that, like other investments, is appropriately evaluated in a framework that accounts for risk as well as return. In contrast to dominant wage-premia approach to calculating the returns to education, but which implicitly ignores risk, we evaluate the returns by treating the value of human capital as the price of a non-tradable risky asset. We do so using a lifecycle framework that incorporates risk preferences and earnings risk, as well as ...

  5. Risk Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morring, Frank, Jr.

    2004-01-01

    A National Academies panel says the Hubble Space Telescope is too valuable ;or gamblingon a long-shot robotic mission to extend its service life, and urges Directly contradicting Administrator Sean O'Keefe, who killed a planned fifth shuttle servicing mission to the telescope on grounds it was too dangerous for a human crew in the post-Challenger environment, the expert committee found that upgrades to shuttle safety actually should make it less hazardous to fly to the telescope than it was before Columbia was lost. Risks of a telescope-servicing mission are only marginally greater than the planned missions to the International Space Station (ISS) O'Keefe has authorized, the panel found. After comparing those risks to the dangers inherent in trying to develop a complex space robot in the 39 months remaining in the Hubble s estimated service life, the panel opted for the human mission to save one of the major achievements of the American space program, in the words of Louis J. Lanzerotti, its chairman.

  6. A novel programme to evaluate and communicate 10-year risk of CHD reduces predicted risk and improves patients' modifiable risk factor profile

    OpenAIRE

    Benner, J S; Erhardt, L.; Flammer, M; Moller, R A; Rajicic, N; Changela, K; Yunis, C; Cherry, S B; Gaciong, Z; Johnson, E. S.; Sturkenboom, M.C.J.M.; García-Puig, J; Girerd, X

    2008-01-01

    Aims We assessed whether a novel programme to evaluate/communicate predicted coronary heart disease (CHD) risk could lower patients' predicted Framingham CHD risk vs. usual care. Methods The Risk Evaluation and Communication Health Outcomes and Utilization Trial was a prospective, controlled, cluster-randomised trial in nine European countries, among patients at moderate cardiovascular risk. Following baseline assessments, physicians in the intervention group calculated patients' predicted CH...

  7. Light Pipe Energy Savings Calculator

    Science.gov (United States)

    Owens, Erin; Behringer, Ernest R.

    2009-04-01

    Dependence on fossil fuels is unsustainable and therefore a shift to renewable energy sources such as sunlight is required. Light pipes provide a way to utilize sunlight for interior lighting, and can reduce the need for fossil fuel-generated electrical energy. Because consumers considering light pipe installation may be more strongly motivated by cost considerations than by sustainability arguments, an easy means to examine the corresponding costs and benefits is needed to facilitate informed decision-making. The purpose of this American Physical Society Physics and Society Fellowship project is to create a Web-based calculator to allow users to quantify the possible cost savings for their specific light pipe application. Initial calculations show that the illumination provided by light pipes can replace electric light use during the day, and in many cases can supply greater illumination levels than those typically given by electric lighting. While the installation cost of a light pipe is significantly greater than the avoided cost of electricity over the lifetime of the light pipe at current prices, savings may be realized if electricity prices increase.

  8. Quantifying the relative risk of sex offenders: risk ratios for static-99R.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanson, R Karl; Babchishin, Kelly M; Helmus, Leslie; Thornton, David

    2013-10-01

    Given the widespread use of empirical actuarial risk tools in corrections and forensic mental health, it is important that evaluators and decision makers understand how scores relate to recidivism risk. In the current study, we found strong evidence for a relative risk interpretation of Static-99R scores using 8 samples from Canada, United Kingdom, and Western Europe (N = 4,037 sex offenders). Each increase in Static-99R score was associated with a stable and consistent increase in relative risk (as measured by an odds ratio or hazard ratio of approximately 1.4). Hazard ratios from Cox regression were used to calculate risk ratios that can be reported for Static-99R. We recommend that evaluators consider risk ratios as a useful, nonarbitrary metric for quantifying and communicating risk information. To avoid misinterpretation, however, risk ratios should be presented with recidivism base rates. PMID:23264543

  9. RISK-XLR: A Microcomputer-Based Genetic Risk Program for X-Linked Recessive Traits

    OpenAIRE

    Rivas, Marian L.; Martens, Paula R.

    1987-01-01

    A computer program, RISK-XLR, which calculates genetic risk for carrier status of a Mendelian X-linked recessive condition has been written for the Macintosh series of microcomputers. The program, which incorporates family information (number of normal sons, daughters and granddaughters with normal sons, etc.), mutation rate, fitness and carrier test results in the assessment of genetic risk, utilizes Bayesian conditional probability. “User-friendly” and “error trapping” features have been in...

  10. Indicators for Disaster Risk and Risk Management: Programme for Latin-America and The Caribbean: Belize

    OpenAIRE

    Inter-American Development Bank (IDB)

    2011-01-01

    This documents contains Disaster Risk and Disaster Management indicators for Belize calculated according to the methodology developed by the Bank. This System of Indicators had three specific objectives: i) improvement in the use and presentation of information on risk. This assists policymakers in identifying investment priorities to reduce risk (such as prevention and mitigation measures), and directs the post disaster recovery process; ii) to provide a way to measure key elements of vulner...

  11. NASA's Risk Management System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perera, Jeevan S.

    2011-01-01

    Leadership is key to success. Phased-approach for implementation of risk management is necessary. Risk management system will be simple, accessible and promote communication of information to all relevant stakeholders for optimal resource allocation and risk mitigation. Risk management should be used by all team members to manage risks -- risk office personnel. Each group is assigned Risk Integrators who are facilitators for effective risk management. Risks will be managed at the lowest-level feasible, elevate only those risks that require coordination or management from above. Risk reporting and communication is an essential element of risk management and will combine both qualitative and quantitative elements. Risk informed decision making should be introduced to all levels of management. Provide necessary checks and balances to insure that risks are caught/identified and dealt with in a timely manner. Many supporting tools, processes & training must be deployed for effective risk management implementation. Process improvement must be included in the risk processes.

  12. UncertiantyQuantificationinTsunamiEarlyWarningCalculations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anunziato, Alessandro

    2016-04-01

    The objective of the Tsunami calculations is the estimation of the impact of waves caused by large seismic events on the coasts and the determination of potential inundation areas. In the case of Early Warning Systems, i.e. systems that should allow to anticipate the possible effects and give the possibility to react consequently (i.e. issue evacuation of areas at risk), this must be done in very short time (minutes) to be effective. In reality, the above estimation includes several uncertainty factors which make the prediction extremely difficult. The quality of the very first estimations of the seismic parameters is not very precise: the uncertainty in the determination of the seismic components (location, magnitude and depth) decreases with time because as time passes it is possible to use more and more seismic signals and the event characterization becomes more precise. On the other hand other parameters that are necessary to establish for the performance of a calculation (i.e. fault mechanism) are difficult to estimate accurately also after hours (and in some cases remain unknown) and therefore this uncertainty remains in the estimated impact evaluations; when a quick tsunami calculation is necessary (early warning systems) the possibility to include any possible future variation of the conditions to establish the "worst case scenario" is particularly important. The consequence is that the number of uncertain parameters is so large that it is not easy to assess the relative importance of each of them and their effect on the predicted results. In general the complexity of system computer codes is generated by the multitude of different models which are assembled into a single program to give the global response for a particular phenomenon. Each of these model has associated a determined uncertainty coming from the application of that model to single cases and/or separated effect test cases. The difficulty in the prediction of a Tsunami calculation response is

  13. Does radiation risk exist?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Risk assessment and risk management are parts of a dynamic process with the objective to decide on the tolerability of risk and on measures to keep risk within accepted limits. It enables all relevant parties to express their concerns and preferences regarding the different options for the human action involved and regarding the relative importance of criteria to decide on the tolerability of risk. Risk assessment has three phases; problem definition, risk analysis and risk characterization. Risk analysis is primarily a technical and scientific endeavour. With regard to problem definition and ride characterization consultation between risk assessors and risk managers (and other parties concerned) is a must. (author)

  14. Living with risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Personal risk estimation is discussed under the following headings: history and background of risk study, the nature and measurement of risk, the main causes of death, major risk factors (smoking, alcohol and other drugs, diet), occupational risks, transport, risks in the home, recreational risks, medicine and surgery, natural disasters, chemical risks, the perception, acceptability and management of risk, and risks and energy production. The latter chapter includes consideration of comparative risks in electricity generation. The extraction of fuel for, construction and operation of nuclear power stations is discussed, including references to Sellafield, leukemia clustering, and the Three Mile Island and Chernobyl disasters. (UK)

  15. Managing risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The three principles to guide regulating authorities are: Risks shall be managed to maximize the total expected net benefit to society; The safety benefit to be promoted is quality-adjusted life expectancy; Decisions for the public in regard to health and safety must be open and apply across the entire range of hazards to life and health. Based on the principle that excessive spending on health and safety, or lack of necessary development, may cause poverty and thereby actually decrease (adjusted) life expectancy, the author has developed a Life Product Index which gives comparable results to the Human Development Index promoted by the United Nations Development Program. These two social indicators can be used for purposes such as project evaluation, choosing between alternative technologies, or evaluation of health and safety programs

  16. Project Risk Management Phases

    OpenAIRE

    Claudiu-George BOCEAN

    2008-01-01

    Risk management is the human activity which integrates recognition of risk, risk assessment, developing strategies to manage it, and mitigation of risk using managerial resources. Notwithstanding the domain of activities where they are conducted, projects often entail risks, and risk management has been widely recognized as a success factor in project management. Following a concept clarification on project risk management, this paper presents a generic list steps in the risk management proce...

  17. Coaching and risk management

    OpenAIRE

    Vladimír Štípek

    2008-01-01

    The article deals with the problems of risk management and with the questions of coaching in various areas of activities of people. Problems of management and prevention of risk is very extensive. It includes for instance technological risk, financial risk, project risk, business risk, risk of environment protection etc. Coaching means the method of optimisation of utilisation of human potential. The metod of coaching in the area of risk management increase effectiveness of methods of decreas...

  18. Risk and Returns to Education

    OpenAIRE

    Jeffrey Brown; Chichun Fang; Francisco Gomes

    2012-01-01

    We analyze the returns to education in a life-cycle framework that incorporates risk preferences, earnings volatility (including unemployment), and a progressive income tax and social insurance system. We show that such a framework significantly reduces the measured gains from education relative to simple present-value calculations, although the gains remain significant. For example, for a range of preference parameters, we find that individuals should be willing to pay 300 to 500 (200 to 250...

  19. Shuttle Risk Progression: Use of the Shuttle Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) to Show Reliability Growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamlin, Teri L.

    2011-01-01

    It is important to the Space Shuttle Program (SSP), as well as future manned spaceflight programs, to understand the early mission risk and progression of risk as the program gains insights into the integrated vehicle through flight. The risk progression is important to the SSP as part of the documentation of lessons learned. The risk progression is important to future programs to understand reliability growth and the first flight risk. This analysis uses the knowledge gained from 30 years of operational flights and the current Shuttle PRA to calculate the risk of Loss of Crew and Vehicle (LOCV) at significant milestones beginning with the first flight. Key flights were evaluated based upon historical events and significant re-designs. The results indicated that the Shuttle risk tends to follow a step function as opposed to following a traditional reliability growth pattern where risk exponentially improves with each flight. In addition, it shows that risk can increase due to trading safety margin for increased performance or due to external events. Due to the risk drivers not being addressed, the risk did not improve appreciably during the first 25 flights. It was only after significant events occurred such as Challenger and Columbia, where the risk drivers were apparent, that risk was significantly improved. In addition, this paper will show that the SSP has reduced the risk of LOCV by almost an order of magnitude. It is easy to look back afte r 30 years and point to risks that are now obvious, however; the key is to use this knowledge to benefit other programs which are in their infancy stages. One lesson learned from the SSP is understanding risk drivers are essential in order to considerably reduce risk. This will enable the new program to focus time and resources on identifying and reducing the significant risks. A comprehensive PRA, similar to that of the Shuttle PRA, is an effective tool quantifying risk drivers if support from all of the stakeholders is

  20. Radiation risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This report contains an evaluation of data available about the deleterious effects of exposure of people to ionising radiation, assuming that the total exposure is low (low dose) or that exposure to dose takes place gradually (low dose rate). It is a revision of the 1985 Health Council report on 'The scientific foundations for radiation protection policy based on the UNSCEAR-77, -82, and BEIR reports'. The report is also meant to be a reply to a request for advice made by the Minister of Welfare, Public Health and Culture in 1989. Scientific opinion on induction of cancer by radiation has clearly changed since 1988. This is a consequence of new publications of epidemiological studies among survivors of the atomic explosions of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. The Committee that has produced the present report has paid much attention to this development. Besides, in the request for advice just mentioned it is asked whether the margins of uncertainty which complicated the quantitative assessment of the radiation risk can be reduced. Consequently the Committee has dealt extensively with the potential errors and uncertainties in available data. Especially these 2 elements - a careful consideration of a recent shift in scientific opinion and a constant attention for the magnitude of potential uncertainties - have had a predominant influence on the content and design of this report. The Committee has tried to answer as fully as possible the complex question how to transform results of scientific research into a well-organised data set on which the government can base its radiation protection policy. The Committee had also compared its evaluation to the recent recommendations of the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) and the points of view of the Dutch policy directive 'Dealing with radiation risks'. (author). 111 refs.; 12 tabs

  1. FLAG-SGH Sedov calculations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fung, Jimmy [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Schofield, Sam [LLNL; Shashkov, Mikhail J. [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2012-06-25

    We did not run with a 'cylindrically painted region'. However, we did compute two general variants of the original problem. Refinement studies where a single zone at each level of refinement contains the entire internal energy at t=0 or A 'finite' energy source which has the same physical dimensions as that for the 91 x 46 mesh, but consisting of increasing numbers of zones with refinement. Nominal mesh resolution: 91 x 46. Other mesh resolutions: 181 x 92 and 361 x 184. Note, not identical to the original specification. To maintain symmetry for the 'fixed' energy source, the mesh resolution was adjusted slightly. FLAG Lagrange or full (Eulerian) ALE was used with various options for each simulation. Observation - for either Lagrange or ALE, point or 'fixed' source, calculations converge on density and pressure with mesh resolution, but not energy, (not vorticity either).

  2. Langage C++ et calcul scientifique

    OpenAIRE

    Saramito, Pierre

    2005-01-01

    La simulation numérique est devenue essentielle dans de nombreux domaines tels que la mécanique des fluides et des solides, la météo, l'évolution du climat, la biologie ou les semi-conducteurs. Elle permet de comprendre, de prévoir, d'accéder là où les instruments de mesures s'arrêtent. Ce livre présente des méthodes performantes du calcul scientifique : matrices creuses, résolution efficace des grands systèmes linéaires, ainsi que de nombreuses applications à la résolution par éléments fini...

  3. Lunar Landing Operational Risk Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mattenberger, Chris; Putney, Blake; Rust, Randy; Derkowski, Brian

    2010-01-01

    Characterizing the risk of spacecraft goes beyond simply modeling equipment reliability. Some portions of the mission require complex interactions between system elements that can lead to failure without an actual hardware fault. Landing risk is currently the least characterized aspect of the Altair lunar lander and appears to result from complex temporal interactions between pilot, sensors, surface characteristics and vehicle capabilities rather than hardware failures. The Lunar Landing Operational Risk Model (LLORM) seeks to provide rapid and flexible quantitative insight into the risks driving the landing event and to gauge sensitivities of the vehicle to changes in system configuration and mission operations. The LLORM takes a Monte Carlo based approach to estimate the operational risk of the Lunar Landing Event and calculates estimates of the risk of Loss of Mission (LOM) - Abort Required and is Successful, Loss of Crew (LOC) - Vehicle Crashes or Cannot Reach Orbit, and Success. The LLORM is meant to be used during the conceptual design phase to inform decision makers transparently of the reliability impacts of design decisions, to identify areas of the design which may require additional robustness, and to aid in the development and flow-down of requirements.

  4. Risk management marketing seller

    OpenAIRE

    L.I. Kucher; M.T. Betz

    2011-01-01

    Defined by the authors interpretation of the nature of risk, described conditions of emerging risks, with emphasis on risk identification phase of marketing research and risk measurement process and the system of commodity risk management policy on the criteria of quality customer service and circuit analysis of chances - risks of the enterprise in the formation of the elements of commercial policy.

  5. Risk management marketing seller

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L.I. Kucher

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Defined by the authors interpretation of the nature of risk, described conditions of emerging risks, with emphasis on risk identification phase of marketing research and risk measurement process and the system of commodity risk management policy on the criteria of quality customer service and circuit analysis of chances - risks of the enterprise in the formation of the elements of commercial policy.

  6. Comparative Risk Aversion under Background Risk Revisited

    OpenAIRE

    Masamitsu Ohnishi; Yusuke Osaki

    2010-01-01

    This paper determines a new sufficient condition of the (von Neumann-Morgenstern) utility function that preserves comparative risk aversion under background risk. It is the single crossing condition of risk aversion. Because this condition requires monotonicity in the local sense, it may satisfy the U-shaped risk aversion observed in the recent empirical literature.

  7. Aging risk of passive components

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper presents an approach for determining the increasing failure probability of an aging passive component and for calculating its resulting effect on plant risk by modifying an existing commercial nuclear reactor probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). A technique was developed for introducing aging into failure probability calculations using probabilistic structural analysis (PSA) techniques. Various probabilistic structural analysis methods were reviewed, and the PRAISE computer code was selected to perform the PSA. A component was selected that could fail and have a significant effect on the risk of core damage frequency. This component is a weld in the auxiliary feedwater system (AFW) of a pressurized water reactor (PWR). The stress on the AFW weld, for input in PRAISE, was determined for piping design loads, plant transient loads, and a thermal cyclic load that could cause crack growth and ultimate pipe failure. One PRAISE calculation might be made with the possibility of water hammer introduced to determine the effect on core damage frequency. An existing PRA (for a NUREG 1150 plant) was modified to include the failure of the AFW weld. Because this work is not complete, only preliminary conclusions and recommendations are presented

  8. On Calculation of Amplitudes in Quantum Electrodynamics

    OpenAIRE

    Karplyuk, Kostyantyn; Zhmudsky, Oleksandr

    2012-01-01

    A new method of calculation of amplitudes of different processes in quantum electrodynamics is proposed. The method does not use the Feynman technique of trace of product of matrices calculation. The method strongly simplifies calculation of cross sections for different processes. The effectiveness of the method is shown on the cross-section calculation of Coulomb scattering, Compton scattering and electron-positron annihilation.

  9. Aviation route dose calculation and its numerical basis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The European Directive 96/12 requires that aircrew be considered as occupationally exposed persons and that measures are taken to determine the individual doses of air crew and cabin personnel. Consequently, several European research institutes have undertaken an extensive programme of air borne and mountain based experiments to measure the radiation field in the earth's atmosphere. Furthermore, Monte Carlo radiation transport calculations were done to follow the radiation cascades from the top of the atmosphere down to the earth's surface. Though the basic physical processes and radiation components have been studied previously, the determination of dose quantities require more physical information: Both operational (ambient dose equivalent) and risk related quantities (effective dose) contain non-physical information which is described by quality and radiation weighting factors, respectively. The radiation transport calculations show that at normal flight altitudes the spectral shapes of the particle fluences are essentially invariable. This permits to use calculated conversion coefficients to determine the dose quantities from calculated and experimental spectral data. This appears necessary especially for those radiation components whose dose contribution can not experimentally separated, but may considerably contribute to the effective dose considering the radiation factors presently recommended by the ICRP, e.g. for protons. The European Computer Package EPCARD for the Calculation of Aviation Route Doses was designed to combine the experimental and theoretical data in the best available way. The concept is to treat each major component of the cosmic rays separately, i.e. muons, electrons and photons, neutrons, protons and charged particles. The influence of geomagnetic shielding is considered based on calculations and experimental data, and the magnitude of solar modulation is inferred from neutron monitor data. Route doses are calculated along any specified

  10. Risk of transporting spent nuclear fuel by truck

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The risk methodology used to evaluate the risk in shipping spent fuel includes: 1) a description of the spent fuel transport system, 2) identification of potential release sequences, 3) evaluation of the probabilities and consequences of the releases, and 4) calculation and assessment of the risk. The system description includes projected industry characteristics, amounts to be shipped, shipping package descriptions, material characteristics, transport mode, transport routes used and weather and population distribution information. Release sequences are identified by fault tree analysis tehniques. Releases are evaluated using package failure data, normal transport and transport accident environment data and mathematical models for material dispersion and resultant health effects. This information is combined to calculate the shipping system risk which is compared to other known risks. The data may be further analyzed to determine the primary contributors to the risk and identify possible methods for reducing the risk, if the current risk level is judged by society to be unacceptable

  11. Initial Risk Analysis and Decision Making Framework

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Engel, David W.

    2012-02-01

    Commercialization of new carbon capture simulation initiative (CCSI) technology will include two key elements of risk management, namely, technical risk (will process and plant performance be effective, safe, and reliable) and enterprise risk (can project losses and costs be controlled within the constraints of market demand to maintain profitability and investor confidence). Both of these elements of risk are incorporated into the risk analysis subtask of Task 7. Thus far, this subtask has developed a prototype demonstration tool that quantifies risk based on the expected profitability of expenditures when retrofitting carbon capture technology on a stylized 650 MW pulverized coal electric power generator. The prototype is based on the selection of specific technical and financial factors believed to be important determinants of the expected profitability of carbon capture, subject to uncertainty. The uncertainty surrounding the technical performance and financial variables selected thus far is propagated in a model that calculates the expected profitability of investments in carbon capture and measures risk in terms of variability in expected net returns from these investments. Given the preliminary nature of the results of this prototype, additional work is required to expand the scope of the model to include additional risk factors, additional information on extant and proposed risk factors, the results of a qualitative risk factor elicitation process, and feedback from utilities and other interested parties involved in the carbon capture project. Additional information on proposed distributions of these risk factors will be integrated into a commercial implementation framework for the purpose of a comparative technology investment analysis.

  12. Pests and pesticides, risk and risk aversion

    OpenAIRE

    Pannell, David J.

    1991-01-01

    Theoretical and applied literature on risk in decision making for agricultural pest control is reviewed. Risk can affect pesticide decision making either because of risk aversion or because of its influence on expected profit. It is concluded that risk does not necessarily lead to increased pesticide use by individual farmers. Uncertainty about some variables, such as pest density and pest mortality, does lead to higher optimal pesticide use under risk aversion. However, uncertainty about oth...

  13. Default Risk and Risk Averse International Investors

    OpenAIRE

    Lizarazo, Sandra

    2010-01-01

    This paper develops a quantitative model of debt and default for small open economies that interact with risk averse international investors. The model developed here extends the recent work on the analysis of endogenous default risk to the case in which international investors are risk averse agents with decreasing absolute risk aversion (DARA). By incorporating risk averse investors who trade with a single emerging economy, the present model o ers two main improvements over the standard cas...

  14. Risk aversion, entrepreneurial risk, and portfolio selection

    OpenAIRE

    Fang, Hongyan; Nofsinger, John R.

    2009-01-01

    Do entrepreneurs consider the risk of their business equity when making investment portfolio allocations? Many people compartmentalize different risks and consider them separately, called mental accounting. Alternatively, the risk substitution hypothesis suggests that entrepreneurs would offset high business income risk by selecting a more conservative investment portfolio. we examine these two hypotheses which have implications for measuring risk tolerance. We find that households with propr...

  15. Indicators of Disaster Risk and Risk Management

    OpenAIRE

    Omar D. Cardona

    2005-01-01

    This document is the summary report of the IDB-sponsored system of disaster risk and risk management indicators presented at the World Conference on Disaster Reduction in Kobe, Japan, 2005. The indices estimate disaster risk loss, distribution, vulnerability and management for 12 countries in Latin America and the Caribbean. The objective of this program is to facilitate access to relevant information on disaster risk and risk management by national decision-makers, thus making possible the i...

  16. Track 6: safety and risk management. Plant operational risk management. Plant Configuration Risk Assessment Methodology Development for Periodic Maintenance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    As the operation experiences of nuclear power plants (NPPs) in Korea accumulate and NPP safety functions become enhanced, the role of stable and optimal NPP operation within acceptable safety criteria becomes important at present. To accomplish the goal of safe and optimal operation, maintenance and its related activities should be regarded as the issues of most concern. Studies of methodologies for maintenance improvement and optimization have focused on system performance rather than on the hardware itself. From this point of view, the probabilistic methods are most useful. In terms of risk including core damage frequency and unavailability, the cause that might impact plant safety during normal maintenance activities can be identified and evaluated effectively. The results from these probabilistic analyses can provide insightful information for the reallocation of risk-contributing maintenance activity. This information can be utilized in a way that separates the significant risk-contributing maintenance activities from each other unless they are timely related. In Korea, the risk-monitoring program for operating NPPs is under development and will be implemented in 2003. To accomplish the risk-monitoring program objectives, suitable risk evaluation methods should be developed before the implementation of the risk-monitoring program. The plant configuration assessment methodology was developed for these reasons, and this method is to incorporate the field experiences into the risk calculation exactly within the limit of probabilistic methods. During normal plant operation, the plant operational risk changes frequently depending on the status of the plant system and the arrangement of the components. Specific plant systems or components are typically removed from service because of random equipment failure, planned preventive/predictive maintenance, corrective maintenance, surveillance testing, and operational bypass activities, and such events usually impact the

  17. Risk of producing energy - and conserving it

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The idea that society can have a free lunch in the form of a risk-free energy system is rapidly fading away. All energy systems have some risk to human health, and for some it can be substantial. Nuclear power seems to have both a low occupational and public risk compared to other forms. In addition to this, some original research is presented with calculations on some of the risk associated with sealing up houses to keep heat in. When the effects of the accumulated radon is included, the risk per unit energy saved for this form of conservation can be great. Indeed, it appears to be much greater than the public risk of nuclear power

  18. Outage risk reduction at Diablo Canyon

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A formal risk reduction program was conducted at the Diablo Canyon Nuclear Generating plant as part of EPRI's Outage Risk Assessment and Management Program. The program began with a probabilistic and deterministic assessment of the frequency of core coolant boiling and core uncovery during shutdown operations. This step identified important contributors to risk, periods of high vulnerability, and potential mechanisms for reducing risk. Next, recovery strategies were evaluated and procedures, training, and outage schedules modified. Twelve risk reduction enhancements were developed and implemented. These enhancements and their impact are described in this paper. These enhancements reduced the calculated risk of core uncovery by about a factor of four for a refueling outage without lengthening the outage schedule; increased the outage efficiency, contributing to completing 11 days ahead of schedule; and helped to earn the highest achievable SALP rating from the NRC. (author)

  19. Risk assessment and risk transfer from an insurerś point of view

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ebner, G.

    2009-04-01

    Risk, a word that causes a lot of associations in human brains. Many of us don't like risks. Since hundreds of years insurance is the most common way to get rid of the financial consequences when risks convert to damages. This article deals with commercial risks and the possibilities of risk transfer, an important task within the field of risk management. For commercial entities it is very important to transfer risks, threatening the competitiveness or even worse the existence of a company. At the beginning of insurance it was more the less a bet between merchants and rich people. Later on mutual societies were taking place. Today we see a complex insurance industry with insurers, reinsurers, self insuring possibilities via captives and much more. This complex system, with all the different ways to deal with risk transfer requires a professional risk assessment! Risk assessment is based on knowledge about the threatened assets, the likelihood that they will be damaged, the threats and the possibilities to protect these assets. Assets may be tangible or intangible. Assessing risks is not a precise calculation that delivers a result without any doubt. But insurers and insured need a basis to fix a premium, both of them can agree. This contribution will present a system to assess risks and to find the right risk-transfer-premiums.

  20. Review of the current status of radiation risk estimates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This report reviews the current status of radiation risk estimation for low linear energy transfer radiation. Recent statements by various national and international organisations regarding risk estimates are critically discussed. The recently published revised population risk estimates from the study of Japanese bomb survivors are also reviewed and used with some unpublished data from Japan to calculate risk figures for a general work force. (author)

  1. Financing and risk management of investments in mining sector

    OpenAIRE

    Hashemi, Seyedmajid

    2013-01-01

    ABSTRACT: This study aims for investigating the process of mining investments and calculating the level of risk to which mining companies are exposed. As a mining firm gets involved in a project, there are many risks to be assessed including environmental, social and reputational risks. Therefore, the presence of a sustainable development framework in the mining sector helps to consider all dimensions of mining projects in order to mitigate the risk exposure. As undeveloped mineral resour...

  2. A Constructive Review of Basel's Proposals on Operational Risk

    OpenAIRE

    Jacques Pezier

    2002-01-01

    Risk and loss are common words that need to be clearly defined when embarking on the task of assessing operational risks. Financial institutions may rush into implementing the methodologies proposed by Basel in the hope of achieving better risk management – or simply to satisfy a regulatory request – but without giving enough thoughts to this enterprise. We show that the methodologies proposed by Basel to assess risks and calculate capital requirements are indeed poorly defined and, as far as...

  3. Which measure for PFE? The Risk Appetite Measure, A

    OpenAIRE

    Kenyon, Chris; Green, Andrew; Berrahoui, Mourad

    2015-01-01

    Potential Future Exposure (PFE) is a standard risk metric for managing business unit counterparty credit risk but there is debate on how it should be calculated. The debate has been whether to use one of many historical ("physical") measures (one per calibration setup), or one of many risk-neutral measures (one per numeraire). However, we argue that limits should be based on the bank's own risk appetite provided that this is consistent with regulatory backtesting and that whichever measure is...

  4. Calculating system reliability with SRFYDO

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Morzinski, Jerome [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Anderson - Cook, Christine M [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Klamann, Richard M [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2010-01-01

    SRFYDO is a process for estimating reliability of complex systems. Using information from all applicable sources, including full-system (flight) data, component test data, and expert (engineering) judgment, SRFYDO produces reliability estimates and predictions. It is appropriate for series systems with possibly several versions of the system which share some common components. It models reliability as a function of age and up to 2 other lifecycle (usage) covariates. Initial output from its Exploratory Data Analysis mode consists of plots and numerical summaries so that the user can check data entry and model assumptions, and help determine a final form for the system model. The System Reliability mode runs a complete reliability calculation using Bayesian methodology. This mode produces results that estimate reliability at the component, sub-system, and system level. The results include estimates of uncertainty, and can predict reliability at some not-too-distant time in the future. This paper presents an overview of the underlying statistical model for the analysis, discusses model assumptions, and demonstrates usage of SRFYDO.

  5. RTU Comparison Calculator Enhancement Plan

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Miller, James D.; Wang, Weimin; Katipamula, Srinivas

    2014-03-31

    Over the past two years, Department of Energy’s Building Technologies Office (BTO) has been investigating ways to increase the operating efficiency of the packaged rooftop units (RTUs) in the field. First, by issuing a challenge to the RTU manufactures to increase the integrated energy efficiency ratio (IEER) by 60% over the existing ASHRAE 90.1-2010 standard. Second, by evaluating the performance of an advanced RTU controller that reduces the energy consumption by over 40%. BTO has previously also funded development of a RTU comparison calculator (RTUCC). RTUCC is a web-based tool that provides the user a way to compare energy and cost savings for two units with different efficiencies. However, the RTUCC currently cannot compare savings associated with either the RTU Challenge unit or the advanced RTU controls retrofit. Therefore, BTO has asked PNNL to enhance the tool so building owners can compare energy and savings associated with this new class of products. This document provides the details of the enhancements that are required to support estimating energy savings from use of RTU challenge units or advanced controls on existing RTUs.

  6. Benchmark calculations for EGS5

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In the past few years, EGS4 has undergone an extensive upgrade to EGS5, in particularly in the areas of low-energy electron physics, low-energy photon physics, PEGS cross section generation, and the coding from Mortran to Fortran programming. Benchmark calculations have been made to assure the accuracy, reliability and high quality of the EGS5 code system. This study reports three benchmark examples that show the successful upgrade from EGS4 to EGS5 based on the excellent agreements among EGS4, EGS5 and measurements. The first benchmark example is the 1969 Crannell Experiment to measure the three-dimensional distribution of energy deposition for 1-GeV electrons shower in water and aluminum tanks. The second example is the 1995 Compton-scattered spectra measurements for 20-40 keV, linearly polarized photon by Namito et. al., in KEK, which was a main part of the low-energy photon expansion work for both EGS4 and EGS5. The third example is the 1986 heterogeneity benchmark experiment by Shortt et. al., who used a monoenergetic 20-MeV electron beam to hit the front face of a water tank containing both air and aluminum cylinders and measured spatial depth dose distribution using a small solid-state detector. (author)

  7. RTU Comparison Calculator Enhancement Plan

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Miller, James D. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Wang, Weimin [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Katipamula, Srinivas [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2015-07-01

    Over the past two years, Department of Energy’s Building Technologies Office (BTO) has been investigating ways to increase the operating efficiency of the packaged rooftop units (RTUs) in the field. First, by issuing a challenge to the RTU manufactures to increase the integrated energy efficiency ratio (IEER) by 60% over the existing ASHRAE 90.1-2010 standard. Second, by evaluating the performance of an advanced RTU controller that reduces the energy consumption by over 40%. BTO has previously also funded development of a RTU comparison calculator (RTUCC). RTUCC is a web-based tool that provides the user a way to compare energy and cost savings for two units with different efficiencies. However, the RTUCC currently cannot compare savings associated with either the RTU Challenge unit or the advanced RTU controls retrofit. Therefore, BTO has asked PNNL to enhance the tool so building owners can compare energy and savings associated with this new class of products. This document provides the details of the enhancements that are required to support estimating energy savings from use of RTU challenge units or advanced controls on existing RTUs.

  8. Selfconsistent calculations for hyperdeformed nuclei

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Molique, H.; Dobaczewski, J.; Dudek, J.; Luo, W.D. [Universite Louis Pasteur, Strasbourg (France)

    1996-12-31

    Properties of the hyperdeformed nuclei in the A {approximately} 170 mass range are re-examined using the self-consistent Hartree-Fock method with the SOP parametrization. A comparison with the previous predictions that were based on a non-selfconsistent approach is made. The existence of the {open_quotes}hyper-deformed shell closures{close_quotes} at the proton and neutron numbers Z=70 and N=100 and their very weak dependence on the rotational frequency is suggested; the corresponding single-particle energy gaps are predicted to play a role similar to that of the Z=66 and N=86 gaps in the super-deformed nuclei of the A {approximately} 150 mass range. Selfconsistent calculations suggest also that the A {approximately} 170 hyperdeformed structures have neglegible mass asymmetry in their shapes. Very importantly for the experimental studies, both the fission barriers and the {open_quotes}inner{close_quotes} barriers (that separate the hyperdeformed structures from those with smaller deformations) are predicted to be relatively high, up to the factor of {approximately}2 higher than the corresponding ones in the {sup 152}Dy superdeformed nucleus used as a reference.

  9. On Calculating Activity Slack in Stochastic Project Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gary Mitchell

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Problem statement: Identifying critical tasks in a project network is easily done when task times are deterministic, but doing so under stochastic task times is problematic. The few methods that have been proposed contain serious drawbacks which lead to identifying critical tasks incorrectly, leaving project managers without the means to (1 identify and rank the most probable sources of project delays, (2 assess the magnitude of each source of schedule risk, and (3 identify which tasks represent the best opportunities for successfully addressing schedule risk? Approach: In this study we considered the problem of identifying the sources of schedule risk in a stochastic project network. We developed general expressions for determining a task’s late starting and ending time distributions. We introduced the concept of stochastic slack and develop a number of metrics that help a project manager directly identify and estimate the magnitude of sources of schedule risk. Finally, we compared critical tasks identified using the activity criticality index to those found using stochastic slack metrics. Results: We have demonstrated that a task may have non-zero probability of negative stochastic slack and that expected total slack for a task may be negative. We also found that while the activity criticality index is effective for calculating the probability that a task is on a critical path, the stochastic slack based metrics discussed in this paper are better predictors of the extent to which a delay in a task will result in a project delay. Conclusion/Recommendations: Project managers should consider using stochastic slack based metrics for assessing project risk and establishing the most likely project schedule outcomes. Given the calculation complexity associated with theoretically exact stochastic slack metrics, effective heuristics are required.

  10. Integrating Risk Context into Risk Assessments: The Risk Context Scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kroner, Daryl G.; Gray, Andrew L.; Goodrich, Ben

    2013-01-01

    The context in which offenders are released is an important component of conducting risk assessments. A sample of 257 supervised male parolees were followed in the community ("M" = 870 days) after an initial risk assessment. Drawing on community-based information, the purpose of this study was to evaluate the recently developed Risk Context Scale.…

  11. NASA's Risk Management System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perera, Jeevan S.

    2013-01-01

    Phased-approach for implementation of risk management is necessary. Risk management system will be simple, accessible and promote communication of information to all relevant stakeholders for optimal resource allocation and risk mitigation. Risk management should be used by all team members to manage risks - not just risk office personnel. Each group/department is assigned Risk Integrators who are facilitators for effective risk management. Risks will be managed at the lowest-level feasible, elevate only those risks that require coordination or management from above. Risk informed decision making should be introduced to all levels of management. ? Provide necessary checks and balances to insure that risks are caught/identified and dealt with in a timely manner. Many supporting tools, processes & training must be deployed for effective risk management implementation. Process improvement must be included in the risk processes.

  12. Dysphonia risk screening protocol

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katia Nemr

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: To propose and test the applicability of a dysphonia risk screening protocol with score calculation in individuals with and without dysphonia. METHOD: This descriptive cross-sectional study included 365 individuals (41 children, 142 adult women, 91 adult men and 91 seniors divided into a dysphonic group and a non-dysphonic group. The protocol consisted of 18 questions and a score was calculated using a 10-cm visual analog scale. The measured value on the visual analog scale was added to the overall score, along with other partial scores. Speech samples allowed for analysis/assessment of the overall degree of vocal deviation and initial definition of the respective groups and after six months, the separation of the groups was confirmed using an acoustic analysis. RESULTS: The mean total scores were different between the groups in all samples. Values ranged between 37.0 and 57.85 in the dysphonic group and between 12.95 and 19.28 in the non-dysphonic group, with overall means of 46.09 and 15.55, respectively. High sensitivity and specificity were demonstrated when discriminating between the groups with the following cut-off points: 22.50 (children, 29.25 (adult women, 22.75 (adult men, and 27.10 (seniors. CONCLUSION: The protocol demonstrated high sensitivity and specificity in differentiating groups of individuals with and without dysphonia in different sample groups and is thus an effective instrument for use in voice clinics.

  13. Decreasing relative risk premium

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Frank

    2007-01-01

    such that the corresponding relative risk premium is a decreasing function of present wealth, and we determine the set of associated utility functions. We find a new characterization of risk vulnerability and determine a large set of utility functions, closed under summation and composition, which are...... both risk vulnerable and have decreasing relative risk premium. We finally introduce the notion of partial risk neutral preferences on binary lotteries and show that partial risk neutrality is equivalent to preferences with decreasing relative risk premium...

  14. RISK MANAGEMENT IN PHARMACEUTICALS

    OpenAIRE

    V. SIVA RAMA KRISHNA; PRIYANKA SRIVASTAVA

    2014-01-01

    Objective: To review the risk in pharmaceutical industries and the risk management process and tools. There is risk always in anything we do. All the industries on this globe perform actions that involve risks; risk is only dangerous when there is no anticipation to manage it. Risks if assessed and controlled properly will benefit the industries against the fall and makes stronger. Risk should not be assessed as bad, but should assess as an opportunity for making things resilient by proper ma...

  15. Corporate risks, risk bearing ability and equity

    OpenAIRE

    Handschin, Lukas

    2011-01-01

    There is a relation between corporate risks, risk bearing ability and equity. In order to assess the risk bearing ability of a corporation, one reference figure is equity, understood as the sum of legal capital and reserves, free reserves and accrued profits. Equity shows the risk bearing ability related to the risk of asset reduction as well as the ability of the corporation to attract new liquidity by increasing debts, in case of a negative free cash flow. Equity is the risk reserve of the ...

  16. MODERN RISK MEASURES FOR INDIVIDUAL HIGHER EDUCATION INVESTMENT RISK EVALUATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vona Mate

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available One of the reasons why people get degree and participate in organized education is that they want to raise their human capital or signal their inner abilities to future employers by sorting themselves out. In both cases they can expect return to their investment, because they can expect higher life-time earnings than those who do not have degree. In this paper we will refer this activity as higher education investment or education investment. In this paper the investment of the state into educating their citizens will not be considered. The question of this paper will develop the findings of Vona (2014. I suggested to introduce modern risk measures because individual risk-taking became a serious question. It was considered that modern risk measures can help to solve some issues with the relation of investment and risk. However before applying some measures from a different field of science, namely investment finance and financial mathematics, to another, economics of education, there must be a very careful consideration, because there are debate over these measures applicability even on their field of science. Value at Risk is not coherent and Expected Shortfall is only one of a great deal of possible tail loss measures. For this reason it will be discussed in detail how should we should adopt the measures, what kind of data is necessary for calculating this risk measures and what kind of new insight they can bring. With the aid of a numerical example it will be shown that with expected shortfall measure we can reflect some large losses, and potential high value of diversification. We show the value at risk based measure is not coherent and this means it points out something different in this environment. It is can be an indicator of loss in opportunities for high end returns.

  17. Securitization of Longevity and Mortality Risk

    OpenAIRE

    Tomas Cipra

    2010-01-01

    This paper deals with Alternative Risk Transfer (ART) through the securitization of longevity and mortality risks in pension plans and commercial life insurance. Various types of such mortality-linked securities are described (e.g., CATM bonds, longevity bonds, mortality forwards and futures, and mortality swaps). Pricing methods and real examples are given. Hypothetical calculations concerning the pricing of potential mortality forwards that correspond to the evolution of longevity in the Cz...

  18. Whole Grain Intake Reduces Pancreatic Cancer Risk

    OpenAIRE

    Lei, Qiucheng; Zheng, Huazhen; Bi, Jingcheng; Wang, Xinying; Jiang, Tingting; Gao, Xuejin; Tian, Feng; Xu, Min; Wu, Chao; Zhang, Li; Ning LI; Li, Jieshou

    2016-01-01

    Abstract Mounting evidence from epidemiology studies suggests that whole grain intake may reduce pancreatic cancer risk, but convincing evidence is scarce. We conducted a meta-analysis to assess the association between whole grain intake and pancreatic cancer risk. Relevant observational studies were identified by searching PubMed, Embase, Scopus, and Cochrane library databases for the period from January 1980 to July 2015, with no restrictions. We calculated the summary odds ratios (ORs) for...

  19. Providing access to risk prediction tools via the HL7 XML-formatted risk web service.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chipman, Jonathan; Drohan, Brian; Blackford, Amanda; Parmigiani, Giovanni; Hughes, Kevin; Bosinoff, Phil

    2013-07-01

    Cancer risk prediction tools provide valuable information to clinicians but remain computationally challenging. Many clinics find that CaGene or HughesRiskApps fit their needs for easy- and ready-to-use software to obtain cancer risks; however, these resources may not fit all clinics' needs. The HughesRiskApps Group and BayesMendel Lab therefore developed a web service, called "Risk Service", which may be integrated into any client software to quickly obtain standardized and up-to-date risk predictions for BayesMendel tools (BRCAPRO, MMRpro, PancPRO, and MelaPRO), the Tyrer-Cuzick IBIS Breast Cancer Risk Evaluation Tool, and the Colorectal Cancer Risk Assessment Tool. Software clients that can convert their local structured data into the HL7 XML-formatted family and clinical patient history (Pedigree model) may integrate with the Risk Service. The Risk Service uses Apache Tomcat and Apache Axis2 technologies to provide an all Java web service. The software client sends HL7 XML information containing anonymized family and clinical history to a Dana-Farber Cancer Institute (DFCI) server, where it is parsed, interpreted, and processed by multiple risk tools. The Risk Service then formats the results into an HL7 style message and returns the risk predictions to the originating software client. Upon consent, users may allow DFCI to maintain the data for future research. The Risk Service implementation is exemplified through HughesRiskApps. The Risk Service broadens the availability of valuable, up-to-date cancer risk tools and allows clinics and researchers to integrate risk prediction tools into their own software interface designed for their needs. Each software package can collect risk data using its own interface, and display the results using its own interface, while using a central, up-to-date risk calculator. This allows users to choose from multiple interfaces while always getting the latest risk calculations. Consenting users contribute their data for future

  20. Risk Adjusted Deposit Insurance for Japanese Banks

    OpenAIRE

    Ryuzo Sato; Rama V. Ramachandran; Bohyong Kang

    1990-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the Japanese deposit insurance scheme by contrasting the flat insurance rate with a market-determined risk-adjusted rate. The model used to calculate the risk-adjusted rate is that of Ronn and Verrna (1986) . It utilizes the notion of Merton(1977) that the deposit insurance can be based on a one-to-one relation between it and the put option; this permits the application of Black and Scholes(1973) model for the calculation of the insurance rate. The ris...

  1. Risk control and the minimum significant risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Risk management implies that the risk manager can, by his actions, exercise at least a modicum of control over the risk in question. In the terminology of control theory, a management action is a control signal imposed as feedback on the system to bring about a desired change in the state of the system. In the terminology of risk management, an action is taken to bring a predicted risk to lower values. Even if it is assumed that the management action taken is 100% effective and that the projected risk reduction is infinitely well known, there is a lower limit to the desired effects that can be achieved. It is based on the fact that all risks, such as the incidence of cancer, exhibit a degree of variability due to a number of extraneous factors such as age at exposure, sex, location, and some lifestyle parameters such as smoking or the consumption of alcohol. If the control signal is much smaller than the variability of the risk, the signal is lost in the noise and control is lost. This defines a minimum controllable risk based on the variability of the risk over the population considered. This quantity is the counterpart of the minimum significant risk which is defined by the uncertainties of the risk model. Both the minimum controllable risk and the minimum significant risk are evaluated for radiation carcinogenesis and are shown to be of the same order of magnitude. For a realistic management action, the assumptions of perfectly effective action and perfect model prediction made above have to be dropped, resulting in an effective minimum controllable risk which is determined by both risk limits. Any action below that effective limit is futile, but it is also unethical due to the ethical requirement of doing more good than harm. Finally, some implications of the effective minimum controllable risk on the use of the ALARA principle and on the evaluation of remedial action goals are presented

  2. Cancer risk in systemic lupus

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bernatsky, Sasha; Ramsey-Goldman, Rosalind; Labrecque, Jeremy;

    2013-01-01

    .46, 5.49) and leukemia. In addition, increased risks of cancer of the vulva (SIR 3.78, 95% CI 1.52, 7.78), lung (SIR 1.30, 95% CI 1.04, 1.60), thyroid (SIR 1.76, 95% CI 1.13, 2.61) and possibly liver (SIR 1.87, 95% CI 0.97, 3.27) were suggested. However, a decreased risk was estimated for breast (SIR 0......: These data estimate only a small increased risk in SLE (versus the general population) for cancer over-all. However, there is clearly an increased risk of NHL, and cancers of the vulva, lung, thyroid, and possibly liver. It remains unclear to what extent the association with NHL is mediated by innate versus......OBJECTIVE: To update estimates of cancer risk in SLE relative to the general population. METHODS: A multisite international SLE cohort was linked with regional tumor registries. Standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) were calculated as the ratio of observed to expected cancers. RESULTS: Across 30...

  3. Extreme Downside Liquidity Risk

    OpenAIRE

    Ruenzi, Stefan; Ungeheuer, Michael; Weigert, Florian

    2013-01-01

    We merge the literature on downside return risk with that on systematic liquidity risk and introduce the concept of extreme downside liquidity (EDL) risk. We show that the cross-section of expected stock returns reflects a premium for EDL risk. Strong EDL risk stocks deliver a positive risk premium of more than 4% p.a. as compared to weak EDL risk stocks. The effect is more pronounced after the market crash of 1987. It is not driven by linear liquidity risk or by extreme downside return risk,...

  4. FOOD RISK ANALYSIS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Food risk analysis is a holistic approach to food safety because it considers all aspects of the problem. Risk assessment modeling is the foundation of food risk analysis. Proper design and simulation of the risk assessment model is important to properly predict and control risk. Because of knowl...

  5. Calculation Methods for Wallenius’ Noncentral Hypergeometric Distribution

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fog, Agner

    2008-01-01

    conditional distribution of independent binomial variates given their sum. No reliable calculation method for Wallenius' noncentral hypergeometric distribution has hitherto been described in the literature. Several new methods for calculating probabilities from Wallenius' noncentral hypergeometric...

  6. 76 FR 71431 - Civil Penalty Calculation Methodology

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-11-17

    ... TRANSPORTATION Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration Civil Penalty Calculation Methodology AGENCY: Federal... its civil penalty methodology. Part of this evaluation includes a forthcoming explanation of the Uniform Fine Assessment (UFA) algorithm, which FMCSA currently uses for calculation of civil...

  7. Dynamics Calculation of Travel Wave Tube

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2011-01-01

    During the dynamics calculating of the travel tube, we must obtain the field map in the tube. The field map can be affected by not only the beam loading, but also the attenuation coefficient. The calculation of the attenuation coefficient

  8. A New Approach for Calculating Vacuum Susceptibility

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    宗红石; 平加伦; 顾建中

    2004-01-01

    Based on the Dyson-Schwinger approach, we propose a new method for calculating vacuum susceptibilities. As an example, the vector vacuum susceptibility is calculated. A comparison with the results of the previous approaches is presented.

  9. Carbon cycle modeling calculations for the IPCC

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    We carried out essentially all the carbon cycle modeling calculations that were required by the IPCC Working Group 1. Specifically, IPCC required two types of calculations, namely, ''inverse calculations'' (input was CO2 concentrations and the output was CO2 emissions), and the ''forward calculations'' (input was CO2 emissions and output was CO2 concentrations). In particular, we have derived carbon dioxide concentrations and/or emissions for several scenarios using our coupled climate-carbon cycle modelling system

  10. Lattice Dynamics Calculation in MGB2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In Present report, We have introduced a new theoretical results for MgB2 by using home design programme Lattice Dynamics. we have calculated partial and total density of states (PDOS, TDOS), infrared and Raman spectrums and specific heat capacity. Dispersion curves in different symmetry points are calculated and found that there is agreement with other calculations. Also we have tried to investigate the Boron Isotope effect on the calculated properties

  11. CORRECTED CALCULATION OF HORIZONTAL GATING SYSTEMS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. A. Zayatz

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available In the course of fulfillment of work the specified calculations of horizontal gating systems for various parts produced in dispensable molds were carried out. The results of work showed that the weight removal value in gating systems fluctuates in big intervals and the specified calculation of horizontal gating systems enables to calculate precisely their weight that allows to calculate quantity of metal in metal charge.

  12. Final disposal room structural response calculations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Finite element calculations have been performed to determine the structural response of waste-filled disposal rooms at the WIPP for a period of 10,000 years after emplacement of the waste. The calculations were performed to generate the porosity surface data for the final set of compliance calculations. The most recent reference data for the stratigraphy, waste characterization, gas generation potential, and nonlinear material response have been brought together for this final set of calculations

  13. Financial Risk Measurement for Financial Risk Management

    OpenAIRE

    Torben G. Andersen; Tim Bollerslev; Peter F. Christoffersen; Francis X. Diebold

    2012-01-01

    Current practice largely follows restrictive approaches to market risk measurement, such as historical simulation or RiskMetrics. In contrast, we propose flexible methods that exploit recent developments in financial econometrics and are likely to produce more accurate risk assessments, treating both portfolio-level and asset-level analysis. Asset-level analysis is particularly challenging because the demands of real-world risk management in financial institutions - in particular, real-time r...

  14. Risk Parity Portfolios with Risk Factors

    OpenAIRE

    Roncalli, Thierry; Weisang, Guillaume

    2012-01-01

    Portfolio construction and risk budgeting are the focus of many studies by academics and practitioners. In particular, diversification has spawn much interest and has been defined very differently. In this paper, we analyze a method to achieve portfolio diversification based on the decomposition of the portfolio's risk into risk factor contributions. First, we expose the relationship between risk factor and asset contributions. Secondly, we formulate the diversification problem in terms of ri...

  15. Quadrant III RFI draft report: Appendix J, Baseline risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In accordance with the Risk Assessment Guidance for Superfund (U. S.EPA 1989), which states that background risk should be calculated separately from site-related risk in order to provide important information to the risk manager, this appendix assesses the human health risks associated with background levels of naturally occurring compounds in soil at the Portsmouth Gaseous Diffusion Plant (PORTS). This appendix is organized as follows: Background Conditions, in which the results of Geraghty ampersand Miller's work on characterizing background levels of naturally occurring compounds in soils is summarized; Identification of Exposure Pathways; Estimation of Environmental Concentrations; Estimation of Human Intake; Toxicity Assessment, and Risk Characterization, in which numerical estimates of carcinogenic and noncarcinogenic risk are calculated for each naturally occurring compound and potential exposure pathway

  16. Site remediation guided by risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    parameters or biota-sediment accumulation factors (BSAF)). An example would be fish tissue concentrations projected from creek sediment concentrations were found to be approximately a magnitude higher than the measured fish tissue concentrations. Using the calculated exposures or daily chemical intake for the human receptors, the non-carcinogenic and carcinogenic risks are calculated for each receptor population. If these calculated risks exceed the target risk values (0.2 for non-carcinogenic risk and 1.0E-06 for carcinogenic risk), these evaluated exposure pathways were identified as needing remediation or management to reduce the risk below the target risk values. For the ecological receptors, an ecological screening quotient (ESQ) was calculated based on the ratio of the daily dose ingested by the receptor and a toxic reference value. If the ESQ was above 1.0, the exposure pathway was identified as potentially needing remediation. During the RA process, the impact that the uncertainties (modelled ambient air or tissue concentrations) has on the calculated risk values, can also be evaluated. For example, in an ecological RA, the consumption of one food item such as benthic invertebrates may have a significant impact on higher ecological receptors as a result of biomagnification up the food chain. Obtaining site-specific information (i.e. benthic tissue concentrations) to replace the use of literature-based uptake factors in the re-evaluation of the risk estimate may eliminate or reduce the risk estimate. Then this revised risk estimate would provide a more site-specific cleanup value than the first risk estimate which might have resulted in a more costly remediation or management alternative. (author)

  17. Thermohydraulic calculation of WWER-type NPP

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Technique of thermohydraulic calculation of the WWER-type NPP in unsteady processes is described. Effective algorithm for solving hydrodynamics equations without regard for acoustic effects permitting to use enough large time integration step is given. Calculation of two-dimensional temperature fields in fuel element is considered. Method for calculating a pressurizer, steam generators and pumps is described as well

  18. Quantum Transport Calculations Using Periodic Boundary Conditions

    OpenAIRE

    Wang, Lin-Wang

    2004-01-01

    An efficient new method is presented to calculate the quantum transports using periodic boundary conditions. This method allows the use of conventional ground state ab initio programs without big changes. The computational effort is only a few times of a normal ground state calculations, thus is makes accurate quantum transport calculations for large systems possible.

  19. 47 CFR 1.1623 - Probability calculation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 47 Telecommunication 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Probability calculation. 1.1623 Section 1.1623 Telecommunication FEDERAL COMMUNICATIONS COMMISSION GENERAL PRACTICE AND PROCEDURE Random Selection Procedures for Mass Media Services General Procedures § 1.1623 Probability calculation. (a) All calculations shall...

  20. 10 CFR 766.102 - Calculation methodology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 10 Energy 4 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Calculation methodology. 766.102 Section 766.102 Energy... ASSESSMENT OF DOMESTIC UTILITIES Procedures for Special Assessment § 766.102 Calculation methodology. (a) Calculation of Domestic Utilities' Annual Assessment Ratio to the Fund. Domestic utilities shall be...

  1. 7 CFR 760.1106 - Payment calculation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 7 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Payment calculation. 760.1106 Section 760.1106 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued) FARM SERVICE AGENCY, DEPARTMENT OF... Payment calculation. (a) Preliminary, unadjusted LCP payments are calculated for a producer by...

  2. 7 CFR 1416.104 - Payment calculation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 10 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Payment calculation. 1416.104 Section 1416.104 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued) COMMODITY CREDIT CORPORATION, DEPARTMENT... PROGRAMS Livestock Compensation Program § 1416.104 Payment calculation. (a) LCP payments are calculated...

  3. 7 CFR 1416.504 - Payment calculation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 10 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Payment calculation. 1416.504 Section 1416.504 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued) COMMODITY CREDIT CORPORATION, DEPARTMENT... PROGRAMS Tropical Fruit Disaster Program § 1416.504 Payment calculation. (a) Payments are calculated...

  4. Three-dimensional rf structure calculations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The calculation of three-dimensional rf structures is rapidly approaching adolescence, after having been in its infancy for the last four years. This paper will show the kinds of calculations that are currently being performed in the frequency domain and is a companion paper to one in which time-domain calculations are described. 13 refs., 14 figs

  5. 40 CFR 89.207 - Credit calculation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 20 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Credit calculation. 89.207 Section 89... Trading Provisions § 89.207 Credit calculation. (a) Requirements for calculating NO X credits from Tier 1 engines rated at or above 37 kW. (1) For each participating engine family, emission credits (positive...

  6. Weighting of secondary radiations in organ dose calculations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The current system of dose quantities in radiological protection is based, in addition to the absorbed dose, on the concepts of equivalent dose and effective dose. This system has been developed mainly with uniform whole-body exposures in mind. Conceptual and practical problems arise when the system is applied to more general exposure situations where the radiation quality is altered within the human body. In this article these problems are discussed, using proton beam radiotherapy as a specific example, and a proposition is made that dose equivalent quantities should be used instead of equivalent doses when organ doses are of interest. The calculations of out-of-field organ doses in proton therapy show that the International Commission on Radiological Protection-prescribed use of the proton weighting factor generally leads to an underestimation of the stochastic risks, while the use of neutron weighting factors in the way as practised in the literature leads to a significant overestimation of these risks. (authors)

  7. Stroke - risk factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Risk of stroke goes up with age. Your gender. Men have a higher risk of getting heart disease than women, except in older adults. Your genes and race. If your parents had a stroke, you are at higher risk. ...

  8. Funding Risk Management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ottosen, Karl R.

    1989-01-01

    Describes the funding mechanism in Illinois that permits school districts to levy a separate tax to pay for risk management and tort liability. Offers practical applications for risk care management including risk care management job descriptions. (MLF)

  9. Risks of tobacco

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... smoke - risks; Cigarette smoking - risks; Smoking and smokeless tobacco - risks ... Tobacco is a plant. Its leaves are smoked, chewed, or sniffed for a variety of effects. Tobacco contains the chemical nicotine, which is ...

  10. Endometrial Cancer Risk Factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... cancer? Next Topic What causes endometrial cancer? Endometrial cancer risk factors A risk factor is anything that affects your ... to obesity, which is a well-known endometrial cancer risk factor. Many scientists think this is the main way ...

  11. Risk Factors and Prevention

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Resources Risk Factors & Prevention Back to Patient Resources Risk Factors & Prevention Even people who look healthy and ... Blood Pressure , high cholesterol, diabetes, and thyroid disease. Risk Factors For Arrhythmias and Heart Disease The following ...

  12. Risk Factors for Scleroderma

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... You are here: Home For Patients Risk Factors Risk Factors for Scleroderma The cause of scleroderma is ... what biological factors contribute to scleroderma pathogenesis. Genetic Risk Scleroderma does not tend to run in families ...

  13. Risk for Travelers

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Cow Disease Chronic Wasting Disease (CWD) Prion Diseases Risk for Travelers Recommend on Facebook Tweet Share Compartir ... Jakob Disease (vCJD) by Blood and Blood Products . Risk for Travelers The current risk of acquiring vCJD ...

  14. Hepatitis Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... visit this page: About CDC.gov . Hepatitis Risk Assessment Recommend on Facebook Tweet Share Compartir Viral Hepatitis. ... at risk? Take this 5 minute Hepatitis Risk Assessment developed by the CDC and get a personalized ...

  15. Evaluating shielding effectiveness for reducing space radiation cancer risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    We discuss calculations of probability distribution functions (PDF) representing uncertainties in projecting fatal cancer risk from galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and solar particle events (SPE). The PDFs are used in significance tests for evaluating the effectiveness of potential radiation shielding approaches. Uncertainties in risk coefficients determined from epidemiology data, dose and dose-rate reduction factors, quality factors, and physics models of radiation environments are considered in models of cancer risk PDFs. Competing mortality risks and functional correlations in radiation quality factor uncertainties are included in the calculations. We show that the cancer risk uncertainty, defined as the ratio of the upper value of 95% confidence interval (CI) to the point estimate is about 4-fold for lunar and Mars mission risk projections. For short-stay lunar missions (180d) or Mars missions, GCR risks may exceed radiation risk limits that are based on acceptable levels of risk. For example, the upper 95% CI exceeding 10% fatal risk for males and females on a Mars mission. For reducing GCR cancer risks, shielding materials are marginally effective because of the penetrating nature of GCR and secondary radiation produced in tissue by relativistic particles. At the present time, polyethylene or carbon composite shielding cannot be shown to significantly reduce risk compared to aluminum shielding based on a significance test that accounts for radiobiology uncertainties in GCR risk projection

  16. Evaluating Shielding Effectiveness for Reducing Space Radiation Cancer Risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cucinotta, Francis A.; Kim, Myung-Hee Y.; Ren, Lei

    2007-01-01

    We discuss calculations of probability distribution functions (PDF) representing uncertainties in projecting fatal cancer risk from galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and solar particle events (SPE). The PDF s are used in significance tests of the effectiveness of potential radiation shielding approaches. Uncertainties in risk coefficients determined from epidemiology data, dose and dose-rate reduction factors, quality factors, and physics models of radiation environments are considered in models of cancer risk PDF s. Competing mortality risks and functional correlations in radiation quality factor uncertainties are treated in the calculations. We show that the cancer risk uncertainty, defined as the ratio of the 95% confidence level (CL) to the point estimate is about 4-fold for lunar and Mars mission risk projections. For short-stay lunar missions (risk, however one that is mitigated effectively by shielding, especially for carbon composites structures with high hydrogen content. In contrast, for long duration lunar (>180 d) or Mars missions, GCR risks may exceed radiation risk limits, with 95% CL s exceeding 10% fatal risk for males and females on a Mars mission. For reducing GCR cancer risks, shielding materials are marginally effective because of the penetrating nature of GCR and secondary radiation produced in tissue by relativistic particles. At the present time, polyethylene or carbon composite shielding can not be shown to significantly reduce risk compared to aluminum shielding based on a significance test that accounts for radiobiology uncertainties in GCR risk projection.

  17. Risks In Marine Insurance

    OpenAIRE

    Jelena Grdinic

    2008-01-01

    The author of this paper elaborates risks in marine insurance. Firstly, the author primarily specifies the concept, types and basic characteristics of risks, emphasizing specifics of marine risk in relation to general risks. The author particularly considers determination of risk according to our legal regulations and English Marine Insurance Act, as the most important act in this matter. Special attention is paid to insured risk according to the most recent standard conditions for insurance ...

  18. Information security risk analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Peltier, Thomas R

    2001-01-01

    Effective Risk AnalysisQualitative Risk AnalysisValue AnalysisOther Qualitative MethodsFacilitated Risk Analysis Process (FRAP)Other Uses of Qualitative Risk AnalysisCase StudyAppendix A: QuestionnaireAppendix B: Facilitated Risk Analysis Process FormsAppendix C: Business Impact Analysis FormsAppendix D: Sample of ReportAppendix E: Threat DefinitionsAppendix F: Other Risk Analysis OpinionsIndex

  19. Credit risk measurement

    OpenAIRE

    Sobotka, Jan

    2014-01-01

    This bachelor thesis deals with problematics of credit risk measurement and modeling. The thesis defines the term and concept of credit risk, accents the specifics of the credit risk and frames it in the context of other financial risks, as well as risk management of current financial institutions. It outlines incentives leading to development of regulation, modeling and measuring of the credit risk, as well as presents current situation of the mentioned field. The thesis presents and describ...

  20. Operational Risk Management

    OpenAIRE

    Jacques Pezier

    2012-01-01

    We view risk management as an integral part of good management. Risk management should take a balanced view of decision problems encompassing all significant risks and rewards. Operational risks are only one type of risks and therefore are only one piece in the jigsaw puzzle that only makes sense when all pieces are assembled. All risk analyses are based on the same general principles – generation of alternatives, quantification of uncertainties and preferences, modeling of consequences – but...