WorldWideScience

Sample records for calculating pulmonary-mode-lethality risk

  1. Calculated risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rodricks, J.V.

    1992-01-01

    This book is a clear, practical, and balanced view of toxicology and risk management. The introduction argues the case for risks assessment and outlines the benefits and problems associated with chemical exposure. The first part of the book covers the basic science and the sources of human exposure to chemicals. Absorption, distribution, metabolism, and excretion are covered in some detail. The subsequent chapter gives a lively discussion of toxicity studies and then describes slow and fast poisons. The author gives the arguments for as well as against animal testing. There is much public bewilderment caused by reports of cancer-causing pesticides in apple juice and poisons emanating from nearby hazardous waste sites. The author believes that too much has been written in an attempt to expose governmental and corporate ignorance, negligence, and corruption. This book is less of a polemic, and more of a clear, unbiased clarification of the scientific basis for our concerns and uncertainties. It should serve to refocus the debate

  2. Cardiovascular risk calculation

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    James A. Ker

    2014-08-20

    Aug 20, 2014 ... smoking and elevated blood sugar levels (diabetes mellitus). These risk ... These are risk charts, e.g. FRS, a non-laboratory-based risk calculation, and ... for hard cardiovascular end-points, such as coronary death, myocardial ...

  3. The CPC Risk Calculator

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Røder, Martin Andreas; Berg, Kasper Drimer; Loft, Mathias Dyrberg

    2018-01-01

    BACKGROUND: It can be challenging to predict the risk of biochemical recurrence (BR) during follow-up after radical prostatectomy (RP) in men who have undetectable prostate-specific antigen (PSA), even years after surgery. OBJECTIVE: To establish and validate a contemporary nomogram that predicts...... on the necessity for further follow-up. The nomogram is the first to be available as a free app. PATIENT SUMMARY: We developed an easily interpretable nomogram to evaluate the risk of prostate-specific antigen elevation (cancer recurrence) following complete removal of the prostate (radical prostatectomy...... included. OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS: Time to BR was defined as the first PSA result ≥0.2 ng/ml. BR risk was computed using multiple cause-specific Cox regression including preoperative PSA, pT category, RP Gleason score (GS), and surgical margin (R) status. Death without BR...

  4. Mice take calculated risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kheifets, Aaron; Gallistel, C R

    2012-05-29

    Animals successfully navigate the world despite having only incomplete information about behaviorally important contingencies. It is an open question to what degree this behavior is driven by estimates of stochastic parameters (brain-constructed models of the experienced world) and to what degree it is directed by reinforcement-driven processes that optimize behavior in the limit without estimating stochastic parameters (model-free adaptation processes, such as associative learning). We find that mice adjust their behavior in response to a change in probability more quickly and abruptly than can be explained by differential reinforcement. Our results imply that mice represent probabilities and perform calculations over them to optimize their behavior, even when the optimization produces negligible material gain.

  5. Calculating Risk: Radiation and Chernobyl.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gale, Robert Peter

    1987-01-01

    Considers who is at risk in a disaster such as Chernobyl. Assesses the difficulty in translating information regarding radiation to the public and in determining the acceptability of technological risks. (NKA)

  6. Hydrogen risk and associated calculations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Forestier, A.; Lecomte, M.; Studer, M.

    1993-01-01

    Hydrogen risk is one aspect that can't be neglected by nuclear safety. On the other side, experimental data are very difficult to simulate the real conditions of an accident. So the numerical way can be an aid to the comprehension and the modelling of the risk. PLEXUS code, with its previous developments seems a good candidate to simulate this problem

  7. The new pooled cohort equations risk calculator

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Preiss, David; Kristensen, Søren L

    2015-01-01

    disease and any measure of social deprivation. An early criticism of the Pooled Cohort Equations Risk Calculator has been its alleged overestimation of ASCVD risk which, if confirmed in the general population, is likely to result in statin therapy being prescribed to many individuals at lower risk than...

  8. Calculating excess lifetime risk in relative risk models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vaeth, M.; Pierce, D.A.

    1990-01-01

    When assessing the impact of radiation exposure it is common practice to present the final conclusions in terms of excess lifetime cancer risk in a population exposed to a given dose. The present investigation is mainly a methodological study focusing on some of the major issues and uncertainties involved in calculating such excess lifetime risks and related risk projection methods. The age-constant relative risk model used in the recent analyses of the cancer mortality that was observed in the follow-up of the cohort of A-bomb survivors in Hiroshima and Nagasaki is used to describe the effect of the exposure on the cancer mortality. In this type of model the excess relative risk is constant in age-at-risk, but depends on the age-at-exposure. Calculation of excess lifetime risks usually requires rather complicated life-table computations. In this paper we propose a simple approximation to the excess lifetime risk; the validity of the approximation for low levels of exposure is justified empirically as well as theoretically. This approximation provides important guidance in understanding the influence of the various factors involved in risk projections. Among the further topics considered are the influence of a latent period, the additional problems involved in calculations of site-specific excess lifetime cancer risks, the consequences of a leveling off or a plateau in the excess relative risk, and the uncertainties involved in transferring results from one population to another. The main part of this study relates to the situation with a single, instantaneous exposure, but a brief discussion is also given of the problem with a continuous exposure at a low-dose rate

  9. CALCULATING ECONOMIC RISK AFTER HANFORD CLEANUP

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scott, Michael J.

    2003-01-01

    Since late 1997, researchers at the Hanford Site have been engaged in the Groundwater Protection Project (formerly, the Groundwater/Vadose Zone Project), developing a suite of integrated physical and environmental models and supporting data to trace the complex path of Hanford legacy contaminants through the environment for the next thousand years, and to estimate corresponding environmental, human health, economic, and cultural risks. The linked set of models and data is called the System Assessment Capability (SAC). The risk mechanism for economics consists of ''impact triggers'' (sequences of physical and human behavior changes in response to, or resulting from, human health or ecological risks), and processes by which particular trigger mechanisms induce impacts. Economic impacts stimulated by the trigger mechanisms may take a variety of forms, including changes in either costs or revenues for economic sectors associated with the affected resource or activity. An existing local economic impact model was adapted to calculate the resulting impacts on output, employment, and labor income in the local economy (the Tri-Cities Economic Risk Model or TCERM). The SAC researchers ran a test suite of 25 realization scenarios for future contamination of the Columbia River after site closure for a small subset of the radionuclides and hazardous chemicals known to be present in the environment at the Hanford Site. These scenarios of potential future river contamination were analyzed in TCERM. Although the TCERM model is sensitive to river contamination under a reasonable set of assumptions concerning reactions of the authorities and the public, the scenarios show low enough future contamination that the impacts on the local economy are small

  10. CALCULATING ECONOMIC RISK AFTER HANFORD CLEANUP

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Scott, M.J.

    2003-02-27

    Since late 1997, researchers at the Hanford Site have been engaged in the Groundwater Protection Project (formerly, the Groundwater/Vadose Zone Project), developing a suite of integrated physical and environmental models and supporting data to trace the complex path of Hanford legacy contaminants through the environment for the next thousand years, and to estimate corresponding environmental, human health, economic, and cultural risks. The linked set of models and data is called the System Assessment Capability (SAC). The risk mechanism for economics consists of ''impact triggers'' (sequences of physical and human behavior changes in response to, or resulting from, human health or ecological risks), and processes by which particular trigger mechanisms induce impacts. Economic impacts stimulated by the trigger mechanisms may take a variety of forms, including changes in either costs or revenues for economic sectors associated with the affected resource or activity. An existing local economic impact model was adapted to calculate the resulting impacts on output, employment, and labor income in the local economy (the Tri-Cities Economic Risk Model or TCERM). The SAC researchers ran a test suite of 25 realization scenarios for future contamination of the Columbia River after site closure for a small subset of the radionuclides and hazardous chemicals known to be present in the environment at the Hanford Site. These scenarios of potential future river contamination were analyzed in TCERM. Although the TCERM model is sensitive to river contamination under a reasonable set of assumptions concerning reactions of the authorities and the public, the scenarios show low enough future contamination that the impacts on the local economy are small.

  11. Relative Hazard and Risk Measure Calculation Methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stenner, Robert D.; Strenge, Dennis L.; Elder, Matthew S.; Andrews, William B.; Walton, Terry L.

    2003-01-01

    The RHRM equations, as represented in methodology and code presented in this report, are primarily a collection of key factors normally used in risk assessment that are relevant to understanding the hazards and risks associated with projected mitigation, cleanup, and risk management activities. The RHRM code has broad application potential. For example, it can be used to compare one mitigation, cleanup, or risk management activity with another, instead of just comparing it to just the fixed baseline. If the appropriate source term data are available, it can be used in its non-ratio form to estimate absolute values of the associated controlling hazards and risks. These estimated values of controlling hazards and risks can then be examined to help understand which mitigation, cleanup, or risk management activities are addressing the higher hazard conditions and risk reduction potential at a site. Graphics can be generated from these absolute controlling hazard and risk values to graphically compare these high hazard and risk reduction potential conditions. If the RHRM code is used in this manner, care must be taken to specifically define and qualify (e.g., identify which factors were considered and which ones tended to drive the hazard and risk estimates) the resultant absolute controlling hazard and risk values

  12. Perceived and calculated health risks: do the impacts differ

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Payne, B.A.; Williams, R.G.

    1986-01-01

    In many cases of radioactive and hazardous waste management, some members of the general public perceive that human health risks associated with the wastes are higher than the calculated risks. Calculated risks are projections that have been derived from models, and it is these risks that are usually used as the basis for waste management. However, for various reasons, the calculated risks are often considered by the public as too low or inappropriate. The reasons that calculated risks are not perceived as accurate and the factors that affect these perceptions are explored in this paper. Also discussed are the impacts related to the perceived and calculated health risks: what they are, and if and how they differ. The kinds of potential impacts examined are health effects, land value changes, and social, transportation, and economic effects. The paper concludes with a discussion of the implications of incorporating these different risk perspectives in decisions on waste management

  13. Making sense of cancer risk calculators on the web.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levy, Andrea Gurmankin; Sonnad, Seema S; Kurichi, Jibby E; Sherman, Melani; Armstrong, Katrina

    2008-03-01

    Cancer risk calculators on the internet have the potential to provide users with valuable information about their individual cancer risk. However, the lack of oversight of these sites raises concerns about low quality and inconsistent information. These concerns led us to evaluate internet cancer risk calculators. After a systematic search to find all cancer risk calculators on the internet, we reviewed the content of each site for information that users should seek to evaluate the quality of a website. We then examined the consistency of the breast cancer risk calculators by having 27 women complete 10 of the breast cancer risk calculators for themselves. We also completed the breast cancer risk calculators for a hypothetical high- and low-risk woman, and compared the output to Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results estimates for the average same-age and same-race woman. Nineteen sites were found, 13 of which calculate breast cancer risk. Most sites do not provide the information users need to evaluate the legitimacy of a website. The breast cancer calculator sites vary in the risk factors they assess to calculate breast cancer risk, how they operationalize each risk factor and in the risk estimate they provide for the same individual. Internet cancer risk calculators have the potential to provide a public health benefit by educating individuals about their risks and potentially encouraging preventive health behaviors. However, our evaluation of internet calculators revealed several problems that call into question the accuracy of the information that they provide. This may lead the users of these sites to make inappropriate medical decisions on the basis of misinformation.

  14. A hierarchical procedure for calculation of risk importance measures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Poern, K.; Dinsmore, S.C.

    1987-01-01

    Starting with a general importance definition based on conditional probabilities, a hierarchical process for calculating risk importance measures from a PSA's numerical results is developed. By the appropriate choice of events in the general definition, measures such as the risk achievement worth and the risk reduction worth can be calculated without requantifying the PSA's models. Required approximations are clearly defined and the subsequent constraints on the applicability of the process discussed. (orig.)

  15. Risk calculations in the manufacturing technology selection process

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Farooq, S.; O'Brien, C.

    2010-01-01

    Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to present result obtained from a developed technology selection framework and provide a detailed insight into the risk calculations and their implications in manufacturing technology selection process. Design/methodology/approach - The results illustrated...... in the paper are the outcome of an action research study that was conducted in an aerospace company. Findings - The paper highlights the role of risk calculations in manufacturing technology selection process by elaborating the contribution of risk associated with manufacturing technology alternatives...... in the shape of opportunities and threats in different decision-making environments. Practical implications - The research quantifies the risk associated with different available manufacturing technology alternatives. This quantification of risk crystallises the process of technology selection decision making...

  16. Mixtures of toxic agents and attributable risk calculations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Seiler, F.A.; Scott, B.R.

    1987-01-01

    Calculations of attributable risks have attracted increasing interest recently. However, these efforts have been limited to mostly one agent, radiation, and no interactions with effects of other toxic agents have been taken into account. This paper outlines a generic approach to the calculation of attributable risks for an exposure to several toxic agents and interaction effects associated with them. In this calculation, the partition of interaction terms between the agents responsible is of particular importance. At present, there are no rules on how to assign equitable shares, so one methodology will be proposed and others discussed briefly. For one example of an assignment, the standard errors of the attributable risks are determined in terms of the uncertainties of the input parameters, thus setting the stage for a comparison of the different shares of responsibility

  17. Calculation of the quantities of radiation risk in Japanese population

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nakamura, Yuji

    1993-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to reevaluate various kinds of indicators of radiation risks using additive projection and multiplicative projection models, as proposed by ICRP. Total death probability rate (1985) and probability rate of cancer death (1983 to 1987) were used as data base. The following indicators were calculated: total conditional death probability rate and conditional death probability rate; normalized death age probability density and unconditional death probability rate; attributable life-time probability of cancer death; and other risk indicators, including mean loss of life expectancy, reduction of life expectancy, mean annually committed probability of attributable cancer deaths, annual extra probability of cancer death, probability density of the age of death, maximum relative death probability rate (age at maximum relative rate), and probabilistic aging. In terms of calculations of these risk indicators for the comprehensive cancer death, there was no great difference between the Japanese population and ICRP. When calculating according to sites of cancer, calculations of indicators for cancer mortality (or cancer cure rate) in the Japanese population might bedifferent from ICRP's calculation. (N.K.) different from ICRP's calculations. (N.K.)

  18. RAFT: a computer program for fault tree risk calculations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Seybold, G.D.

    1977-11-01

    A description and user instructions are presented for RAFT, a FORTRAN computer code for calculation of a risk measure for fault tree cut sets. RAFT calculates release quantities and a risk measure based on the product of probability and release quantity for cut sets of fault trees modeling the accidental release of radioactive material from a nuclear fuel cycle facility. Cut sets and their probabilities are supplied as input to RAFT from an external fault tree analysis code. Using the total inventory available of radioactive material, along with release fractions for each event in a cut set, the release terms are calculated for each cut set. Each release term is multiplied by the cut set probability to yield the cut set risk measure. RAFT orders the dominant cut sets on the risk measure. The total risk measure of processed cut sets and their fractional contributions are supplied as output. Input options are available to eliminate redundant cut sets, apply threshold values on cut set probability and risk, and control the total number of cut sets output. Hash addressing is used to remove redundant cut sets from the analysis. Computer hardware and software restrictions are given along with a sample problem and cross-reference table of the code. Except for the use of file management utilities, RAFT is written exclusively in FORTRAN language and is operational on a Control Data, CYBER 74-18--series computer system. 4 figures

  19. Relative Hazard and Risk Measure Calculation Methodology Rev 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stenner, Robert D.; White, Michael K.; Strenge, Dennis L.; Aaberg, Rosanne L.; Andrews, William B.

    2000-01-01

    Documentation of the methodology used to calculate relative hazard and risk measure results for the DOE complex wide risk profiles. This methodology is used on major site risk profiles. In February 1997, the Center for Risk Excellence (CRE) was created and charged as a technical, field-based partner to the Office of Science and Risk Policy (EM-52). One of the initial charges to the CRE is to assist the sites in the development of ''site risk profiles.'' These profiles are to be relatively short summaries (periodically updated) that present a broad perspective on the major risk related challenges that face the respective site. The risk profiles are intended to serve as a high-level communication tool for interested internal and external parties to enhance the understanding of these risk-related challenges. The risk profiles for each site have been designed to qualitatively present the following information: (1) a brief overview of the site, (2) a brief discussion on the historical mission of the site, (3) a quote from the site manager indicating the site's commitment to risk management, (4) a listing of the site's top risk-related challenges, (5) a brief discussion and detailed table presenting the site's current risk picture, (6) a brief discussion and detailed table presenting the site's future risk reduction picture, and (7) graphic illustrations of the projected management of the relative hazards at the site. The graphic illustrations were included to provide the reader of the risk profiles with a high-level mental picture to associate with all the qualitative information presented in the risk profile. Inclusion of these graphic illustrations presented the CRE with the challenge of how to fold this high-level qualitative risk information into a system to produce a numeric result that would depict the relative change in hazard, associated with each major risk management action, so it could be presented graphically. This report presents the methodology developed

  20. Evaluating risk using bounding calculations and limited data; TOPICAL

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    COWLEY, W.L.

    1999-01-01

    This paper describes a methodology for estimating the potential risk to workers and the public from igniting organic solvents in any of the 177 underground waste storage tanks at the Hanford Site in southeastern Washington state. The Hanford Site is one of the U.S. Department of Energy's former production facilities for nuclear materials. The tanks contain mixed radioactive wastes. Risk is measured by calculating toxicological and radiological accident consequences and frequencies and comparing the results to established regulatory guidelines. Available sample data is insufficient to adequately characterize the waste and solvent, so a model that maximizes releases from the tanks (bounding case) is used. Maximizing releases (and thus consequences) is a standard technique used in safety analysis to compensate for lack of information. The model predicts bounding values of fire duration, the time at which the fire extinguishes because of lack of oxygen, and a pressure history of a fire in a tank. The model output is used to calculate mass and volume release rates of material from the tanks. The mass and volume release rates permit calculation of radiological and toxicological consequences. The resulting consequence calculations demonstrate that risk from an organic solvent fire in the tanks is within regulatory guidelines

  1. Estimating risk using bounding calculations and limited data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    COWLEY, W.L.

    1999-01-01

    This paper describes a methodology for estimating the potential risk to workers and the public from igniting organic solvents in any of the 177 underground waste storage tanks at the Hanford Site in southeastern Washington state. The Hanford Site is one of the U.S. Department of Energy's former production facilities for nuclear materials. The tanks contain mixed radioactive wastes. Risk is measured by calculating toxicological and radiological accident consequences and frequencies and comparing the results to established regulatory guidelines. Available sample data is insufficient to adequately characterize the waste and solvent, so a model that maximizes releases from the tanks (bounding case) is used. Maximizing releases (and thus consequences) is a standard technique used in safety analysis to compensate for lack of information. The model predicts bounding values of fire duration, the time at which the fire extinguishes because of lack of oxygen, and a pressure history of a fire in a tank. The model output is used to calculate mass and volume release rates of material from the tanks. The mass and volume release rates permit calculation of radiological and toxicological consequences. The resulting consequence calculations demonstrate that risk from an organic solvent fire in the tanks is within regulatory guidelines

  2. Calculation of risk for workers in dust working site

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Geldová Erika

    2004-03-01

    Full Text Available The fibrogeneous dust is considered as a specific harmful substance in the mine working site. Such kind of dust cumulates in lungs and this fact usually results in lungs dusting, so - called pneumoconiosis. Thus, dustiness risk poses a probability of lungs damage by pneumoconiosis. For the calculation of dustiness risk it is needed to know the following data: the value of average dustiness kC in the working site per a definite time period, the dispersivity of dust “D” (it determines a portion of dust particles with a diameter under 5 µm, so - called respirable particles and the percentage content of quartz Qr in the respirable grain size fraction.The contribution presents the calculation of dustiness risk “R” according to the equation (1, where “R” is in percentage, “ša” is the analytically specific harmfulness and “KDc” is the total cumulative dust dose received by worker in time of its dust exposure.The total cumulative dust dose is calculated on the basis of the equation (4, where “kc” is the average dust concentration in the assessed time period, t–time of exposure, V –average amount of air inspired by exposed worker per time unit ( standardized on the value of 1,2 m3h-1,10-6-recalculation from mg to kg for “KDc”.If the values of “Qr”, “D” and “kc” during the worker exposure on a definite workplace are constant, the dustiness risk “R” is calculated according to the equation (1 and (5 respectively. In the case of “n” time intervals in that the values “Qr”, “D” and “kc” are known the dustiness risk “R” is calculated according to the equation (7. The total personal risk of worker is given by the equation (8.Conclusively, the influence of parameters change namely “Qr”, “D” and “kc” on the value of dustiness risk per equal time period is reported.

  3. Evaluation of the Prostate Cancer Prevention Trial Risk Calculator in a High-Risk Screening Population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaplan, David J.; Boorjian, Stephen A.; Ruth, Karen; Egleston, Brian L.; Chen, David Y.T.; Viterbo, Rosalia; Uzzo, Robert G.; Buyyounouski, Mark K.; Raysor, Susan; Giri, Veda N.

    2009-01-01

    Introduction Clinical factors in addition to PSA have been evaluated to improve risk assessment for prostate cancer. The Prostate Cancer Prevention Trial (PCPT) risk calculator provides an assessment of prostate cancer risk based on age, PSA, race, prior biopsy, and family history. This study evaluated the risk calculator in a screening cohort of young, racially diverse, high-risk men with a low baseline PSA enrolled in the Prostate Cancer Risk Assessment Program. Patients and Methods Eligibility for PRAP include men ages 35-69 who are African-American, have a family history of prostate cancer, or have a known BRCA1/2 mutation. PCPT risk scores were determined for PRAP participants, and were compared to observed prostate cancer rates. Results 624 participants were evaluated, including 382 (61.2%) African-American men and 375 (60%) men with a family history of prostate cancer. Median age was 49.0 years (range 34.0-69.0), and median PSA was 0.9 (range 0.1-27.2). PCPT risk score correlated with prostate cancer diagnosis, as the median baseline risk score in patients diagnosed with prostate cancer was 31.3%, versus 14.2% in patients not diagnosed with prostate cancer (p<0.0001). The PCPT calculator similarly stratified the risk of diagnosis of Gleason score ≥7 disease, as the median risk score was 36.2% in patients diagnosed with Gleason ≥7 prostate cancer versus 15.2% in all other participants (p<0.0001). Conclusion PCPT risk calculator score was found to stratify prostate cancer risk in a cohort of young, primarily African-American men with a low baseline PSA. These results support further evaluation of this predictive tool for prostate cancer risk assessment in high-risk men. PMID:19709072

  4. Approximate dynamic fault tree calculations for modelling water supply risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lindhe, Andreas; Norberg, Tommy; Rosén, Lars

    2012-01-01

    Traditional fault tree analysis is not always sufficient when analysing complex systems. To overcome the limitations dynamic fault tree (DFT) analysis is suggested in the literature as well as different approaches for how to solve DFTs. For added value in fault tree analysis, approximate DFT calculations based on a Markovian approach are presented and evaluated here. The approximate DFT calculations are performed using standard Monte Carlo simulations and do not require simulations of the full Markov models, which simplifies model building and in particular calculations. It is shown how to extend the calculations of the traditional OR- and AND-gates, so that information is available on the failure probability, the failure rate and the mean downtime at all levels in the fault tree. Two additional logic gates are presented that make it possible to model a system's ability to compensate for failures. This work was initiated to enable correct analyses of water supply risks. Drinking water systems are typically complex with an inherent ability to compensate for failures that is not easily modelled using traditional logic gates. The approximate DFT calculations are compared to results from simulations of the corresponding Markov models for three water supply examples. For the traditional OR- and AND-gates, and one gate modelling compensation, the errors in the results are small. For the other gate modelling compensation, the error increases with the number of compensating components. The errors are, however, in most cases acceptable with respect to uncertainties in input data. The approximate DFT calculations improve the capabilities of fault tree analysis of drinking water systems since they provide additional and important information and are simple and practically applicable.

  5. On-site worker-risk calculations using MACCS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peterson, V.L.

    1993-01-01

    We have revised the latest version of MACCS for use with the calculation of doses and health risks to on-site workers for postulated accidents at the Rocky Flats Plant (RFP) in Colorado. The modifications fall into two areas: (1) an improved estimate of shielding offered by buildings to workers that remain indoors; and, (2) an improved treatment of building-wake effects, which affects both indoor and outdoor workers. Because the postulated accident can be anywhere on plant site, user-friendly software has been developed to create those portions of the (revised) MACCS input data files that are specific to the accident site

  6. Tensit - a simulation tool for migration, risk and dose calculations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jones, J.; Kautsky, U.; Vahlund, C.F.

    2004-01-01

    During the next years the Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co (SKB) performs site investigations for a future repository of spent nuclear fuel. The repository will be situated in crystalline rock at a depth of approximately 500 m. Novel methods based on systems and landscape ecology are developed to understand the interacting mechanisms and finally, to model radionuclide migration in the biosphere using site specific data. These models and methods are later used as part of the overall safety assessment for the repository where also migration in the near field and in the bedrock is considered. In the present paper, a newly developed probabilistic simulation package, TENSIT, is presented. The package is based on pre-existing codes (Matlab, Simulink and the probabilistic engine-at-risk) and is capable of performing radionuclide migration calculations both for the repository and the biosphere. Hence, a platform independent, transparent (well documented and intuitive on a model scale), thoroughly supported, efficient and user friendly (graphical interface for the modeler) code can be developed at a fairly low cost. Comparisons with other codes used for compartment based biosphere modelling and the PSACOIN Level 1B exercise shows on a good agreement on the application scale. Moreover, by basing the package on continuously maintained, pre-existing codes, potential risks associated with a less spread software may be avoided. In addition to the compartment based models based on transfer factors, TENSIT is also able to handle the more complex ecosystem models (based on flow of carbon and nutrients) either separately or in combination with the compartment models. Within the project, biosphere migration calculations have been performed using TENSIT for a watershed in the Forsmark area (one of the studied sites). In this simulation, data from the ongoing site investigation program has been used to define the based model. (author)

  7. Preliminar calculation of tornado risk in the site of Ipero

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pacheco, Rafael R.; Costa, Saulo Barros, E-mail: rafael.rade@ctmsp.mar.mil.br, E-mail: saulo.costa@ctmsp.mar.mil.br [Centro Tecnologico da Marinha em Sao Paulo (CTMSP), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil); Andrade, Delvonei A., E-mail: delvonei@ipen.br [Instituto de Pesquisas Energeticas e Nucleares (IPEN/CNEN-SP), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil)

    2015-07-01

    General Design Criterion (GDC) 2 to 10 CFR 50 requires that 'structures, systems, and components that are important to safety shall be designed to withstand the effects of natural phenomena, such as tornadoes, without loss of capability to perform their safety functions'. According to Regulatory Guide 1.76, the design-basis intensity of a tornado for a nuclear power plant shall not exceed the intensity of the strongest tornado that occurs with the frequency of 10-7/years. Reinforcing the plant to achieve this goal represents a high increase in the costs of the project, and correspondently increase in the time required to have it commissioned. This way, the right definition of tornado risk in a site would represent savings in money for the project and in time for the licensing of a nuclear power plants. This works aims to establish a preliminary calculation of the tornado risk in the site of Ipero, where will work LABGENE from Brazilian Navy, and RMB from CNEN. (author)

  8. Application of database management software to probabilistic risk assessment calculations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wyss, G.D.

    1993-01-01

    Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) calculations require the management and processing of large amounts of information. This data normally falls into two general categories. For example, a commercial nuclear power plant PRA study makes use of plant blueprints and system schematics, formal plant safety analysis reports, incident reports, letters, memos, handwritten notes from plant visits, and even the analyst's ''engineering judgment''. This information must be documented and cross-referenced in order to properly execute and substantiate the models used in a PRA study. The first category is composed of raw data that is accumulated from equipment testing and operational experiences. These data describe the equipment, its service or testing conditions, its failure mode, and its performance history. The second category is composed of statistical distributions. These distributions can represent probabilities, frequencies, or values of important parameters that are not time-related. Probability and frequency distributions are often obtained by fitting raw data to an appropriate statistical distribution. Database management software is used to store both types of data so that it can be readily queried, manipulated, and archived. This paper provides an overview of the information models used for storing PRA data and illustrates the implementation of these models using examples from current PRA software packages

  9. Probabilistic risk assessment for new and existing chemicals: Example calculations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jager T; Hollander HA den; Janssen GB; Poel P van der; Rikken MGJ; Vermeire TG; ECO; CSR; LAE; CSR

    2000-01-01

    In the risk assessment methods for new and existing chemicals in the EU, "risk" is characterised by means of the deterministic quotient of exposure and effects (PEC/PNEC or Margin of Safety). From a scientific viewpoint, the uncertainty in the risk quotient should be accounted for explicitly in the

  10. The utility of absolute risk prediction using FRAX® and Garvan Fracture Risk Calculator in daily practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Geel, Tineke A C M; Eisman, John A; Geusens, Piet P; van den Bergh, Joop P W; Center, Jacqueline R; Dinant, Geert-Jan

    2014-02-01

    There are two commonly used fracture risk prediction tools FRAX(®) and Garvan Fracture Risk Calculator (GARVAN-FRC). The objective of this study was to investigate the utility of these tools in daily practice. A prospective population-based 5-year follow-up study was conducted in ten general practice centres in the Netherlands. For the analyses, the FRAX(®) and GARVAN-FRC 10-year absolute risks (FRAX(®) does not have 5-year risk prediction) for all fractures were used. Among 506 postmenopausal women aged ≥60 years (mean age: 67.8±5.8 years), 48 (9.5%) sustained a fracture during follow-up. Both tools, using BMD values, distinguish between women who did and did not fracture (10.2% vs. 6.8%, respectively for FRAX(®) and 32.4% vs. 39.1%, respectively for GARVAN-FRC, pbetter for women who sustained a fracture (higher sensitivity) and FRAX(®) for women who did not sustain a fracture (higher specificity). Similar results were obtained using age related cut off points. The discriminant value of both models is at least as good as models used in other medical conditions; hence they can be used to communicate the fracture risk to patients. However, given differences in the estimated risks between FRAX(®) and GARVAN-FRC, the significance of the absolute risk must be related to country-specific recommended intervention thresholds to inform the patient. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Effectiveness of personalized and interactive health risk calculators: a randomized trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harle, Christopher A; Downs, Julie S; Padman, Rema

    2012-01-01

    Risk calculators are popular websites that provide individualized disease risk assessments to the public. Little is known about their effect on risk perceptions and health behavior. This study sought to test whether risk calculator features-namely, personalized estimates of one's disease risk and feedback about the effects of risk-mitigating behaviors-improve risk perceptions and motivate healthy behavior. A web-based experimental study using simple randomization was conducted to compare the effects of 3 prediabetes risk communication websites. Setting The study was conducted in the context of ongoing health promotion activities sponsored by a university's human resources office. Patients Participants were adult university employees. Intervention The control website presented nonindividualized risk information. The personalized noninteractive website presented individualized risk calculations. The personalized interactive website presented individualized risk calculations and feedback about the effects of hypothetical risk-mitigating behaviors. Measurements Pre- and postintervention risk perceptions were measured in absolute and relative terms. Health behavior was measured by assessing participant interest in follow-up preventive health services. On average, risk perceptions decreased by 2%. There was no general effect of personalization or interactivity in aligning subjective risk perceptions with objective risk calculations or in increasing healthy behaviors. However, participants who previously overestimated their risk reduced their perceptions by 16%. This was a significantly larger change than the 2% increase by participants who underestimated their risk. Limitations Results may not generalize to different populations, different diseases, or longer-term outcomes. Compared to nonpersonalized information, individualized risk calculators had little positive effect on prediabetes risk perception accuracy or health behavior. Risk perception accuracy was improved in

  12. Hair 2010 Documentation: Calculating risk indicators related to agricultural use of pesticides within the European Union

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kruijne, R.; Deneer, J.W.; Lahr, J.; Vlaming, J.

    2011-01-01

    The HAIR instrument calculates risk indicators related to the agricultural use of pesticides in EU Member States. HAIR combines databases and models for calculating potential environmental environmental effects expressed by the exposure toxicity ratio.

  13. Randomized Controlled Trial of an Educational Intervention Using an Online Risk Calculator for Knee Osteoarthritis: Effect on Risk Perception.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Losina, Elena; Michl, Griffin L; Smith, Karen C; Katz, Jeffrey N

    2017-08-01

    Young adults, in general, are not aware of their risk of knee osteoarthritis (OA). Understanding risk and risk factors is critical to knee OA prevention. We tested the efficacy of a personalized risk calculator on accuracy of knee OA risk perception and willingness to change behaviors associated with knee OA risk factors. We conducted a randomized controlled trial of 375 subjects recruited using Amazon Mechanical Turk. Subjects were randomized to either use a personalized risk calculator based on demographic and risk-factor information (intervention), or to view general OA risk information (control). At baseline and after the intervention, subjects estimated their 10-year and lifetime risk of knee OA and responded to contemplation ladders measuring willingness to change diet, exercise, or weight-control behaviors. Subjects in both arms had an estimated 3.6% 10-year and 25.3% lifetime chance of developing symptomatic knee OA. Both arms greatly overestimated knee OA risk at baseline, estimating a 10-year risk of 26.1% and a lifetime risk of 47.8%. After the intervention, risk calculator subjects' perceived 10-year risk decreased by 12.9 percentage points to 12.5% and perceived lifetime risk decreased by 19.5 percentage points to 28.1%. Control subjects' perceived risks remained unchanged. Risk calculator subjects were more likely to move to an action stage on the exercise contemplation ladder (relative risk 2.1). There was no difference between the groups for diet or weight-control ladders. The risk calculator is a useful intervention for knee OA education and may motivate some exercise-related behavioral change. © 2016, American College of Rheumatology.

  14. Cardiovascular risk calculation | Ker | South African Family Practice

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Cardiovascular disease remains a major cause of global mortality and morbidity. Atherosclerosis is the main underlying cause in the majority of cardiovascular disease events. Traditional independent risk factors for car diovascular disease include age, abnormal lipid levels, elevated blood pressure, smoking and elevated ...

  15. Risk calculation for hyperkalaemia in heart failure patients.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vereijken, T.L.; Bellersen, L.; Groenewoud, J.M.M.; Knubben, L.; Baltussen, L.; Kramers, C.

    2007-01-01

    BACKGROUND: We aimed to develop a model to estimate the risk of hyperkalaemia in patients treated for heart failure in a tertiary reference hospital and to identify precipitating factors. METHODS: 125 congestive heart failure (CHF) patients were studied retrospectively. Thirty of these patients

  16. Predictive Modelling Risk Calculators and the Non Dialysis Pathway.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robins, Jennifer; Katz, Ivor

    2013-04-16

    This guideline will review the current prediction models and survival/mortality scores available for decision making in patients with advanced kidney disease who are being considered for a non-dialysis treatment pathway. Risk prediction is gaining increasing attention with emerging literature suggesting improved patient outcomes through individualised risk prediction (1). Predictive models help inform the nephrologist and the renal palliative care specialists in their discussions with patients and families about suitability or otherwise of dialysis. Clinical decision making in the care of end stage kidney disease (ESKD) patients on a non-dialysis treatment pathway is currently governed by several observational trials (3). Despite the paucity of evidence based medicine in this field, it is becoming evident that the survival advantages associated with renal replacement therapy in these often elderly patients with multiple co-morbidities and limited functional status may be negated by loss of quality of life (7) (6), further functional decline (5, 8), increased complications and hospitalisations. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

  17. HOW TO CALCULATE INFORMATION VALUE FOR EFFECTIVE SECURITY RISK ASSESSMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mario Sajko

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available The actual problem of information security (infosec risk assessment is determining the value of information property or asset. This is particularly manifested through the use of quantitative methodology in which it is necessary to state the information value in quantitative sizes. The aim of this paper is to describe the evaluation possibilities of business information values, and the criteria needed for determining importance of information. For this purpose, the dimensions of information values will be determined and the ways used to present the importance of information contents will be studied. There are two basic approaches that can be used in evaluation: qualitative and quantitative. Often they are combined to determine forms of information content. The proposed criterion is the three-dimension model, which combines the existing experiences (i.e. possible solutions for information value assessment with our own criteria. An attempt for structuring information value in a business environment will be made as well.

  18. Illstrative probabilistic biosphere model for Yucca Mountain individual risk calculations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilems, R.E.

    1994-01-01

    The proposed EPA Standards for the disposal of spent fuel, high-level and transuranic radioactive waste prescribe future biosphere--one in which no sustained human activity occurs inside the controlled zone, yet sustained use of groundwater occurs just outside the controlled zone boundary. Performance assessments have generally assumed a person at this location extracts all his water needs directly from the projected contaminated plume for all of his life. Dose to this maximally-exposed individual is too conservative a measure of performance for a nuclear waste repository and does not reflect the isolation characteristics of a site. A better measure is individual risk in which uncertainties in biosphere characteristics for the longer periods of performance, for a site like Yucca Mountain only those characteristics associated with well water scenarios need be prescribed. Such a prescription of the biosphere is appropriate because the goal of the regulations is to provide indicators of future performance so the regulators can make a responsible decision regarding reasonable assurance of public health and safety

  19. Current state of copper stabilizers and methodology towards calculating risk

    CERN Document Server

    Koratzinos, M

    2011-01-01

    The talk will start by reviewing the landscape: a brief mention of the results of the warm copper stabilizer measurements and the results of the splice measurements at cold will be shown. The preliminary results of the recent RRR measurements will then be presented. Then, together with the limits presented from talk no. 2, the probability of an incident will be presented for beam energies between 3.5 and 5TeV. The available methods at our disposal for addressing the limiting factors and operating at a higher energy will then be reviewed: a complete circuit qualification method coined the Thermal Amplifier can define the maximum safe energy of the LHC in case of a quench next to a defective joint. Ways of avoiding magnet quenches, another critical element of the analysis, for instance by optimizing BLM settings will then be shown. Finally, a proposal of a strategy for running at the highest possible energy compatible with a pre-defined level of risk will be presented. As a case study, the method will also be a...

  20. Clinical Validity, Understandability, and Actionability of Online Cardiovascular Disease Risk Calculators: Systematic Review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonner, Carissa; Fajardo, Michael Anthony; Hui, Samuel; Stubbs, Renee; Trevena, Lyndal

    2018-02-01

    Online health information is particularly important for cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention, where lifestyle changes are recommended until risk becomes high enough to warrant pharmacological intervention. Online information is abundant, but the quality is often poor and many people do not have adequate health literacy to access, understand, and use it effectively. This project aimed to review and evaluate the suitability of online CVD risk calculators for use by low health literate consumers in terms of clinical validity, understandability, and actionability. This systematic review of public websites from August to November 2016 used evaluation of clinical validity based on a high-risk patient profile and assessment of understandability and actionability using Patient Education Material Evaluation Tool for Print Materials. A total of 67 unique webpages and 73 unique CVD risk calculators were identified. The same high-risk patient profile produced widely variable CVD risk estimates, ranging from as little as 3% to as high as a 43% risk of a CVD event over the next 10 years. One-quarter (25%) of risk calculators did not specify what model these estimates were based on. The most common clinical model was Framingham (44%), and most calculators (77%) provided a 10-year CVD risk estimate. The calculators scored moderately on understandability (mean score 64%) and poorly on actionability (mean score 19%). The absolute percentage risk was stated in most (but not all) calculators (79%), and only 18% included graphical formats consistent with recommended risk communication guidelines. There is a plethora of online CVD risk calculators available, but they are not readily understandable and their actionability is poor. Entering the same clinical information produces widely varying results with little explanation. Developers need to address actionability as well as clinical validity and understandability to improve usefulness to consumers with low health literacy.

  1. Modelling IT risk in banking industry : A study on how to calculate the aggregate loss distribution of IT risk

    OpenAIRE

    Isaksson, Didrik

    2017-01-01

    Background: Lack of internal data makes some operational risks hard to calculate with quantitative models. This is true for the IT risk or the risk that a bank will experience losses caused by IT System and Infrastructure failure. IT systems and infrastructure are getting more predominant and important in the banking industry which makes the IT risk even more important to quantify.  Purpose: The aim of this thesis is to find an appropriate way of modelling IT risk for the banking industry. Th...

  2. Integration of second cancer risk calculations in a radiotherapy treatment planning system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hartmann, M; Schneider, U

    2014-01-01

    Second cancer risk in patients, in particular in children, who were treated with radiotherapy is an important side effect. It should be minimized by selecting an appropriate treatment plan for the patient. The objectives of this study were to integrate a risk model for radiation induced cancer into a treatment planning system which allows to judge different treatment plans with regard to second cancer induction and to quantify the potential reduction in predicted risk. A model for radiation induced cancer including fractionation effects which is valid for doses in the radiotherapy range was integrated into a treatment planning system. From the three-dimensional (3D) dose distribution the 3D-risk equivalent dose (RED) was calculated on an organ specific basis. In addition to RED further risk coefficients like OED (organ equivalent dose), EAR (excess absolute risk) and LAR (lifetime attributable risk) are computed. A risk model for radiation induced cancer was successfully integrated in a treatment planning system. Several risk coefficients can be viewed and used to obtain critical situations were a plan can be optimised. Risk-volume-histograms and organ specific risks were calculated for different treatment plans and were used in combination with NTCP estimates for plan evaluation. It is concluded that the integration of second cancer risk estimates in a commercial treatment planning system is feasible. It can be used in addition to NTCP modelling for optimising treatment plans which result in the lowest possible second cancer risk for a patient.

  3. Mobile application-based Seoul National University Prostate Cancer Risk Calculator: development, validation, and comparative analysis with two Western risk calculators in Korean men.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chang Wook Jeong

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVES: We developed a mobile application-based Seoul National University Prostate Cancer Risk Calculator (SNUPC-RC that predicts the probability of prostate cancer (PC at the initial prostate biopsy in a Korean cohort. Additionally, the application was validated and subjected to head-to-head comparisons with internet-based Western risk calculators in a validation cohort. Here, we describe its development and validation. PATIENTS AND METHODS: As a retrospective study, consecutive men who underwent initial prostate biopsy with more than 12 cores at a tertiary center were included. In the development stage, 3,482 cases from May 2003 through November 2010 were analyzed. Clinical variables were evaluated, and the final prediction model was developed using the logistic regression model. In the validation stage, 1,112 cases from December 2010 through June 2012 were used. SNUPC-RC was compared with the European Randomized Study of Screening for PC Risk Calculator (ERSPC-RC and the Prostate Cancer Prevention Trial Risk Calculator (PCPT-RC. The predictive accuracy was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC. The clinical value was evaluated using decision curve analysis. RESULTS: PC was diagnosed in 1,240 (35.6% and 417 (37.5% men in the development and validation cohorts, respectively. Age, prostate-specific antigen level, prostate size, and abnormality on digital rectal examination or transrectal ultrasonography were significant factors of PC and were included in the final model. The predictive accuracy in the development cohort was 0.786. In the validation cohort, AUC was significantly higher for the SNUPC-RC (0.811 than for ERSPC-RC (0.768, p<0.001 and PCPT-RC (0.704, p<0.001. Decision curve analysis also showed higher net benefits with SNUPC-RC than with the other calculators. CONCLUSIONS: SNUPC-RC has a higher predictive accuracy and clinical benefit than Western risk calculators. Furthermore, it is easy

  4. The risk of major nuclear accident: calculation and perception of probabilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leveque, Francois

    2013-01-01

    Whereas before the Fukushima accident, already eight major accidents occurred in nuclear power plants, a number which is higher than that expected by experts and rather close to that corresponding of people perception of risk, the author discusses how to understand these differences and reconcile observations, objective probability of accidents and subjective assessment of risks, why experts have been over-optimistic, whether public opinion is irrational regarding nuclear risk, and how to measure risk and its perception. Thus, he addresses and discusses the following issues: risk calculation (cost, calculated frequency of major accident, bias between the number of observed accidents and model predictions), perceived probabilities and aversion for disasters (perception biases of probability, perception biases unfavourable to nuclear), the Bayes contribution and its application (Bayes-Laplace law, statistics, choice of an a priori probability, prediction of the next event, probability of a core fusion tomorrow)

  5. Calculation of health risks from spent-nuclear-fuel transportation accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, S.Y.; Yuan, Y.C.

    1987-01-01

    Models developed to analyze potential radiological health risks from various accident scenarios during transportation of spent nuclear fuels are described. The models are designed both for detailed route-specific risk analyses and for use in conducting overall risk analyses for route selection and related decision-making activities. The radiological risks calculated include individual dose commitments, collective dose commitments, and long-term (100-year) environmental dose commitments to a population following release of radioactivity. To facilitate route-specific analysis, a state-level database was developed and incorporated into the model. Route-specific analysis is demonstrated by the calculation of radiological risks resulting from various accident scenarios, as postulated by the recent US Nuclear Regulatory Commission Modal Study, for four representative states selected from various regions of the United States. 10 refs., 3 figs., 3 tabs

  6. The ACS NSQIP Risk Calculator Is a Fair Predictor of Acute Periprosthetic Joint Infection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wingert, Nathaniel C; Gotoff, James; Parrilla, Edgardo; Gotoff, Robert; Hou, Laura; Ghanem, Elie

    2016-07-01

    Periprosthetic joint infection (PJI) is a severe complication from the patient's perspective and an expensive one in a value-driven healthcare model. Risk stratification can help identify those patients who may have risk factors for complications that can be mitigated in advance of elective surgery. Although numerous surgical risk calculators have been created, their accuracy in predicting outcomes, specifically PJI, has not been tested. (1) How accurate is the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (ACS NSQIP) Surgical Site Infection Calculator in predicting 30-day postoperative infection? (2) How accurate is the calculator in predicting 90-day postoperative infection? We isolated 1536 patients who underwent 1620 primary THAs and TKAs at our institution during 2011 to 2013. Minimum followup was 90 days. The ACS NSQIP Surgical Risk Calculator was assessed in its ability to predict acute PJI within 30 and 90 days postoperatively. Patients who underwent a repeat surgical procedure within 90 days of the index arthroplasty and in whom at least one positive intraoperative culture was obtained at time of reoperation were considered to have PJI. A total of 19 cases of PJI were identified, including 11 at 30 days and an additional eight instances by 90 days postoperatively. Patient-specific risk probabilities for PJI based on demographics and comorbidities were recorded from the ACS NSQIP Surgical Risk Calculator website. The area under the curve (AUC) for receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves was calculated to determine the predictability of the risk probability for PJI. The AUC is an effective method for quantifying the discriminatory capacity of a diagnostic test to correctly classify patients with and without infection in which it is defined as excellent (AUC 0.9-1), good (AUC 0.8-0.89), fair (AUC 0.7-0.79), poor (AUC 0.6-0.69), or fail/no discriminatory capacity (AUC 0.5-0.59). A p value of fair accuracy in predicting 30

  7. A clustering approach to segmenting users of internet-based risk calculators.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harle, C A; Downs, J S; Padman, R

    2011-01-01

    Risk calculators are widely available Internet applications that deliver quantitative health risk estimates to consumers. Although these tools are known to have varying effects on risk perceptions, little is known about who will be more likely to accept objective risk estimates. To identify clusters of online health consumers that help explain variation in individual improvement in risk perceptions from web-based quantitative disease risk information. A secondary analysis was performed on data collected in a field experiment that measured people's pre-diabetes risk perceptions before and after visiting a realistic health promotion website that provided quantitative risk information. K-means clustering was performed on numerous candidate variable sets, and the different segmentations were evaluated based on between-cluster variation in risk perception improvement. Variation in responses to risk information was best explained by clustering on pre-intervention absolute pre-diabetes risk perceptions and an objective estimate of personal risk. Members of a high-risk overestimater cluster showed large improvements in their risk perceptions, but clusters of both moderate-risk and high-risk underestimaters were much more muted in improving their optimistically biased perceptions. Cluster analysis provided a unique approach for segmenting health consumers and predicting their acceptance of quantitative disease risk information. These clusters suggest that health consumers were very responsive to good news, but tended not to incorporate bad news into their self-perceptions much. These findings help to quantify variation among online health consumers and may inform the targeted marketing of and improvements to risk communication tools on the Internet.

  8. Development and External Validation of the Korean Prostate Cancer Risk Calculator for High-Grade Prostate Cancer: Comparison with Two Western Risk Calculators in an Asian Cohort.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Jae Young; Yoon, Sungroh; Park, Man Sik; Choi, Hoon; Bae, Jae Hyun; Moon, Du Geon; Hong, Sung Kyu; Lee, Sang Eun; Park, Chanwang; Byun, Seok-Soo

    2017-01-01

    We developed the Korean Prostate Cancer Risk Calculator for High-Grade Prostate Cancer (KPCRC-HG) that predicts the probability of prostate cancer (PC) of Gleason score 7 or higher at the initial prostate biopsy in a Korean cohort (http://acl.snu.ac.kr/PCRC/RISC/). In addition, KPCRC-HG was validated and compared with internet-based Western risk calculators in a validation cohort. Using a logistic regression model, KPCRC-HG was developed based on the data from 602 previously unscreened Korean men who underwent initial prostate biopsies. Using 2,313 cases in a validation cohort, KPCRC-HG was compared with the European Randomized Study of Screening for PC Risk Calculator for high-grade cancer (ERSPCRC-HG) and the Prostate Cancer Prevention Trial Risk Calculator 2.0 for high-grade cancer (PCPTRC-HG). The predictive accuracy was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and calibration plots. PC was detected in 172 (28.6%) men, 120 (19.9%) of whom had PC of Gleason score 7 or higher. Independent predictors included prostate-specific antigen levels, digital rectal examination findings, transrectal ultrasound findings, and prostate volume. The AUC of the KPCRC-HG (0.84) was higher than that of the PCPTRC-HG (0.79, pexternal validation. Calibration plots also revealed better performance of KPCRC-HG and ERSPCRC-HG than that of PCPTRC-HG on external validation. At a cut-off of 5% for KPCRC-HG, 253 of the 2,313 men (11%) would not have been biopsied, and 14 of the 614 PC cases with Gleason score 7 or higher (2%) would not have been diagnosed. KPCRC-HG is the first web-based high-grade prostate cancer prediction model in Korea. It had higher predictive accuracy than PCPTRC-HG in a Korean population and showed similar performance with ERSPCRC-HG in a Korean population. This prediction model could help avoid unnecessary biopsy and reduce overdiagnosis and overtreatment in clinical settings.

  9. A method for calculating effective lifetime risk of radiation-induced cancer from screening mammography

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ali, R.M.; England, A.; McEntee, M.F.; Hogg, P.

    2015-01-01

    Purpose: To propose a method for evaluating the effective lifetime risk of radiation-induced cancer from screening mammography and to present initial data for the UK National Breast Screening Programme. Material and methods: The imaging was undertaken using a Hologic Selenia full field digital mammographic unit. The proposed method utilises an ATOM phantom containing thermoluminescent dosimeters and a perspex-polyethylene breast phantom to measure organ doses during a standard four view screening mammogram. Effective dose was calculated and effective risk was modelled for a range of client ages. The total lifetime effective risk was then calculated for the UK national screening programme. Calculation of effective risk includes the radiation dose to examined and contralateral breasts in addition to other body organs; this is an advantage over the mean glandular dose. Results: The contralateral breast, thyroid, thymus, brain, lung, salivary glands, and bone marrow all receive more than 1 μGy radiation dose during screening mammography. A major difference exists for total effective lifetime risk of radiation-induced cancer between clients with average and high breast cancer risk. Differences are attributed to the commencement age of screening and time interval between screens. Conclusion: This study proposes a method to evaluate effective lifetime risk of radiation-induced cancer from screening mammography in order to compare different mammography screening programmes. - Highlights: • We proposed a method for the calculation of radiation-induced cancer from screening mammography. • We measured the radiation absorbed dose of different organs during screening mammography. • There are major differences between mammography screening programme categories with regard to radiation effective risk.

  10. Correlation between Cholesterol, Triglycerides, Calculated, and Measured Lipoproteins: Whether Calculated Small Density Lipoprotein Fraction Predicts Cardiovascular Risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sikandar Hayat Khan

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. Recent literature in lipidology has identified LDL-fractions to be more atherogenic. In this regard, small density LDL-cholesterol (sdLDLc has been considered to possess more atherogenicity than other LDL-fractions like large buoyant LDL-cholesterol (lbLDLc. Recently, Srisawasdi et al. have developed a method for calculating sdLDLc and lbLDLc based upon a regression equation. Using that in developing world may provide us with a valuable tool for ASCVD risk prediction. Objective. (1 To correlate directly measured and calculated lipid indices with insulin resistance, UACR, glycated hemoglobin, anthropometric indices, and blood pressure. (2 To evaluate these lipid parameters in subjects with or without metabolic syndrome, nephropathy, and hypertension and among various groups based upon glycated hemoglobin results. Design. Cross-sectional study. Place and Duration of Study. From Jan 2016 to 15 April 2017. Subjects and Methods. Finally enrolled subjects (male: 110, female: 122 were evaluated for differences in various lipid parameters, including measured LDL-cholesterol (mLDLc, HDLc and calculated LDL-cholesterol (cLDLc, non-HDLc, sdLDLC, lbLDLC, and their ratio among subjects with or without metabolic syndrome, nephropathy, glycation index, anthropometric indices, and hypertension. Results. Significant but weak correlation was mainly observed between anthropometric indices, insulin resistance, blood pressure, and nephropathy for non-HDLc, sdLDLc, and sdLDLc/lbLDLc. Generally lipid indices were higher among subjects with metabolic syndrome [{sdLDLc: 0.92 + 0.33 versus 0.70 + 0.29 (p 7.0%. Subjects having nephropathy (UACR > 2.4 mg/g had higher concentration of non-HDLc levels in comparison to sdLDLc [{non-HDLc: 3.68 + 0.59 versus 3.36 + 0.43} (p=0.007, {sdLDLc: 0.83 + 0.27 versus 0.75 + 0.35 (p=NS}]. Conclusion. Lipid markers including cLDLc and mLDLc are less associated with traditional ASCVD markers than non-HDLc, sdLDLc, and sd

  11. A European Commission software tool for radon risk calculation and evaluation of countermeasures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Degrange, J.P.; Levy, F.P.; Birchall, A.; Haylock, R.; Marsh, J.; Muirhead, C.; Janssens, A.

    2000-01-01

    The effects of exposure to radon on workers and members of the public have been examined for many years. Recent advances have been made in evaluating the risk associated with radon exposure and in implementing remediation programmes in dwellings. However, decisions about whether to implement countermeasures to reduce radon exposures may benefit from an enhanced capability to evaluate and understand the associated health risk. In this context, the European Commission has launched a project to develop a user friendly software package based upon current information on radon epidemiology, radon dosimetry, demography, and countermeasure efficiency. The software has been designed to perform lung cancer risk calculations specific to European populations for various exposure profiles and to evaluate, in terms of risk reduction, the efficiency of various countermeasures in dwellings. This paper presents an overview of the general structure of the software and outlines its most important modelling approaches. The software is able to evaluate the risk of fatal lung cancer associated with individual or collective exposure to radon. The individual risk calculation module determines, for an individual of given age, sex and tobacco consumption, the excess risk for a given exposure (past or future exposure) time-profile, on the basis of demographic data (WHO, 1996 and 1998) specific to the selected population. The collective risk calculation module determines the excess risk for each occupant of a dwelling, for an exposure time-profile derived from data describing the dwelling, its occupancy, and the chosen countermeasures. These calculations may be done using one of two classical approaches: 1) The epidemiological approach in which the risk is obtained directly from the radon exposure data using a risk model (BEIR IV, 1988; BEIR VI, 1999) derived from epidemiological studies of uranium miners; 2) The dosimetric approach in which the risk is derived from the radon exposure data

  12. A European Commission software tool for radon risk calculation and evaluation of countermeasures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Degrange, J.P.; Levy, F.P. [CEPN, Fontenay-aux-Roses Cedex (France); Birchall, A.; Haylock, R.; Marsh, J.; Muirhead, C. [National Radiological Protection Board, Chilton (United Kingdom); Janssens, A. [European Commission, DG XI (Luxembourg)

    2000-05-01

    The effects of exposure to radon on workers and members of the public have been examined for many years. Recent advances have been made in evaluating the risk associated with radon exposure and in implementing remediation programmes in dwellings. However, decisions about whether to implement countermeasures to reduce radon exposures may benefit from an enhanced capability to evaluate and understand the associated health risk. In this context, the European Commission has launched a project to develop a user friendly software package based upon current information on radon epidemiology, radon dosimetry, demography, and countermeasure efficiency. The software has been designed to perform lung cancer risk calculations specific to European populations for various exposure profiles and to evaluate, in terms of risk reduction, the efficiency of various countermeasures in dwellings. This paper presents an overview of the general structure of the software and outlines its most important modelling approaches. The software is able to evaluate the risk of fatal lung cancer associated with individual or collective exposure to radon. The individual risk calculation module determines, for an individual of given age, sex and tobacco consumption, the excess risk for a given exposure (past or future exposure) time-profile, on the basis of demographic data (WHO, 1996 and 1998) specific to the selected population. The collective risk calculation module determines the excess risk for each occupant of a dwelling, for an exposure time-profile derived from data describing the dwelling, its occupancy, and the chosen countermeasures. These calculations may be done using one of two classical approaches: 1) The epidemiological approach in which the risk is obtained directly from the radon exposure data using a risk model (BEIR IV, 1988; BEIR VI, 1999) derived from epidemiological studies of uranium miners; 2) The dosimetric approach in which the risk is derived from the radon exposure data

  13. Easy calculations of lod scores and genetic risks on small computers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lathrop, G M; Lalouel, J M

    1984-01-01

    A computer program that calculates lod scores and genetic risks for a wide variety of both qualitative and quantitative genetic traits is discussed. An illustration is given of the joint use of a genetic marker, affection status, and quantitative information in counseling situations regarding Duchenne muscular dystrophy. PMID:6585139

  14. Prediction of prostate cancer in unscreened men: external validation of a risk calculator.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Vugt, Heidi A; Roobol, Monique J; Kranse, Ries; Määttänen, Liisa; Finne, Patrik; Hugosson, Jonas; Bangma, Chris H; Schröder, Fritz H; Steyerberg, Ewout W

    2011-04-01

    Prediction models need external validation to assess their value beyond the setting where the model was derived from. To assess the external validity of the European Randomized study of Screening for Prostate Cancer (ERSPC) risk calculator (www.prostatecancer-riskcalculator.com) for the probability of having a positive prostate biopsy (P(posb)). The ERSPC risk calculator was based on data of the initial screening round of the ERSPC section Rotterdam and validated in 1825 and 531 men biopsied at the initial screening round in the Finnish and Swedish sections of the ERSPC respectively. P(posb) was calculated using serum prostate specific antigen (PSA), outcome of digital rectal examination (DRE), transrectal ultrasound and ultrasound assessed prostate volume. The external validity was assessed for the presence of cancer at biopsy by calibration (agreement between observed and predicted outcomes), discrimination (separation of those with and without cancer), and decision curves (for clinical usefulness). Prostate cancer was detected in 469 men (26%) of the Finnish cohort and in 124 men (23%) of the Swedish cohort. Systematic miscalibration was present in both cohorts (mean predicted probability 34% versus 26% observed, and 29% versus 23% observed, both pscreened men, but overestimated the risk of a positive biopsy. Further research is necessary to assess the performance and applicability of the ERSPC risk calculator when a clinical setting is considered rather than a screening setting. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. MATHEMATICAL MODEL FOR CALCULATION OF INFORMATION RISKS FOR INFORMATION AND LOGISTICS SYSTEM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. G. Korobeynikov

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Subject of research. The paper deals with mathematical model for assessment calculation of information risks arising during transporting and distribution of material resources in the conditions of uncertainty. Meanwhile information risks imply the danger of origin of losses or damage as a result of application of information technologies by the company. Method. The solution is based on ideology of the transport task solution in stochastic statement with mobilization of mathematical modeling theory methods, the theory of graphs, probability theory, Markov chains. Creation of mathematical model is performed through the several stages. At the initial stage, capacity on different sites depending on time is calculated, on the basis of information received from information and logistic system, the weight matrix is formed and the digraph is under construction. Then there is a search of the minimum route which covers all specified vertexes by means of Dejkstra algorithm. At the second stage, systems of differential Kolmogorov equations are formed using information about the calculated route. The received decisions show probabilities of resources location in concrete vertex depending on time. At the third stage, general probability of the whole route passing depending on time is calculated on the basis of multiplication theorem of probabilities. Information risk, as time function, is defined by multiplication of the greatest possible damage by the general probability of the whole route passing. In this case information risk is measured in units of damage which corresponds to that monetary unit which the information and logistic system operates with. Main results. Operability of the presented mathematical model is shown on a concrete example of transportation of material resources where places of shipment and delivery, routes and their capacity, the greatest possible damage and admissible risk are specified. The calculations presented on a diagram showed

  16. RESRAD for Radiological Risk Assessment. Comparison with EPA CERCLA Tools - PRG and DCC Calculators

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yu, C. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Cheng, J. -J. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Kamboj, S. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States)

    2015-07-01

    The purpose of this report is two-fold. First, the risk assessment methodology for both RESRAD and the EPA’s tools is reviewed. This includes a review of the EPA’s justification for 2 using a dose-to-risk conversion factor to reduce the dose-based protective ARAR from 15 to 12 mrem/yr. Second, the models and parameters used in RESRAD and the EPA PRG and DCC Calculators are compared in detail, and the results are summarized and discussed. Although there are suites of software tools in the RESRAD family of codes and the EPA Calculators, the scope of this report is limited to the RESRAD (onsite) code for soil contamination and the EPA’s PRG and DCC Calculators also for soil contamination.

  17. Upper Gastrointestinal Complications and Cardiovascular/Gastrointestinal Risk Calculator in Patients with Myocardial Infarction Treated with Aspirin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lei Wen

    2017-01-01

    Conclusions: AsaRiskCalculator had a predictive value for gastrointestinal events in Chinese patients with MI. HP infection seemed to be an independent risk factor for gastrointestinal events caused by long-term aspirin treatment in Chinese patients with MI, and it should be included in the risk calculator adapted for Chinese patients.

  18. Usage of Geoprocessing Services in Precision Forestry for Wood Volume Calculation and Wind Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tomáš Mikita

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper outlines the idea of a precision forestry tool for optimizing clearcut size and shape within the process of forest recovery and its publishing in the form of a web processing service for forest owners on the Internet. The designed tool titled COWRAS (Clearcut Optimization and Wind Risk Assessment is developed for optimization of clearcuts (their location, shape, size, and orientation with subsequent wind risk assessment. The tool primarily works with airborne LiDAR data previously processed to the form of a digital surface model (DSM and a digital elevation model (DEM. In the first step, the growing stock on the planned clearcut determined by its location and area in feature class is calculated (by the method of individual tree detection. Subsequently tree heights from canopy height model (CHM are extracted and then diameters at breast height (DBH and wood volume using the regressions are calculated. Information about wood volume of each tree in the clearcut is exported and summarized in a table. In the next step, all trees in the clearcut are removed and a new DSM without trees in the clearcut is generated. This canopy model subsequently serves as an input for evaluation of wind risk damage by the MAXTOPEX tool (Mikita et al., 2012. In the final raster, predisposition of uncovered forest stand edges (around the clearcut to wind risk is calculated based on this analysis. The entire tool works in the background of ArcGIS server as a spatial decision support system for foresters.

  19. A source term and risk calculations using level 2+PSA methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Park, S. I.; Jea, M. S.; Jeon, K. D.

    2002-01-01

    The scope of Level 2+ PSA includes the assessment of dose risk which is associated with the exposures of the radioactive nuclides escaping from nuclear power plants during severe accidents. The establishment of data base for the exposure dose in Korea nuclear power plants may contribute to preparing the accident management programs and periodic safety reviews. In this study the ORIGEN, MELCOR and MACCS code were employed to produce a integrated framework to assess the radiation source term risk. The framework was applied to a reference plant. Using IPE results, the dose rate for the reference plant was calculated quantitatively

  20. Comparing Methods of Calculating Expected Annual Damage in Urban Pluvial Flood Risk Assessments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Skovgård Olsen, Anders; Zhou, Qianqian; Linde, Jens Jørgen

    2015-01-01

    Estimating the expected annual damage (EAD) due to flooding in an urban area is of great interest for urban water managers and other stakeholders. It is a strong indicator for a given area showing how vulnerable it is to flood risk and how much can be gained by implementing e.g., climate change...... adaptation measures. This study identifies and compares three different methods for estimating the EAD based on unit costs of flooding of urban assets. One of these methods was used in previous studies and calculates the EAD based on a few extreme events by assuming a log-linear relationship between cost...... of an event and the corresponding return period. This method is compared to methods that are either more complicated or require more calculations. The choice of method by which the EAD is calculated appears to be of minor importance. At all three case study areas it seems more important that there is a shift...

  1. Personalized risk communication for personalized risk assessment: Real world assessment of knowledge and motivation for six mortality risk measures from an online life expectancy calculator.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manuel, Douglas G; Abdulaziz, Kasim E; Perez, Richard; Beach, Sarah; Bennett, Carol

    2018-01-01

    In the clinical setting, previous studies have shown personalized risk assessment and communication improves risk perception and motivation. We evaluated an online health calculator that estimated and presented six different measures of life expectancy/mortality based on a person's sociodemographic and health behavior profile. Immediately after receiving calculator results, participants were invited to complete an online survey that asked how informative and motivating they found each risk measure, whether they would share their results and whether the calculator provided information they need to make lifestyle changes. Over 80% of the 317 survey respondents found at least one of six healthy living measures highly informative and motivating, but there was moderate heterogeneity regarding which measures respondents found most informative and motivating. Overall, health age was most informative and life expectancy most motivating. Approximately 40% of respondents would share the results with their clinician (44%) or social networks (38%), although the information they would share was often different from what they found informative or motivational. Online personalized risk assessment allows for a more personalized communication compared to historic paper-based risk assessment to maximize knowledge and motivation, and people should be provided a range of risk communication measures that reflect different risk perspectives.

  2. STRRAP system-A software for hazardous materials risk assessment and safe distances calculation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Godoy, S.M.; Santa Cruz, A.S.M.; Scenna, N.J.

    2007-01-01

    This work presents a powerful computational tool (Stochastic Toxic Release Risk Assessment Package, STRRAP) useful in risk assessment and emergency planning (safe distance calculation), which allows to handle the stochastic uncertainty of atmospheric parameters, critical for risk calculation when diffusion of hazardous gases or particulate matter occur as a consequence of an emission or accidental release. In fact, the random behaviour of wind intensity, wind direction, atmospheric stability and temperature, given a time horizon, (a season or a complete year), is taken into account considering also the day or night condition. STRRAP can be used for releases or emissions from static sources (for example a stack or a fixed tank in a facility) or from transportation accidents (road, rail, maritime and pipeline transport) involving different scenarios. After a stochastic simulation based on well-known diffusion models (dense and light gases, particulate matter) is carried out, the downwind pollutant concentrations are obtained, in order to compute safe distances and/or individual and societal risks. Some study cases are analyzed to show STRRAP capabilities

  3. Risk Analysis of Reservoir Flood Routing Calculation Based on Inflow Forecast Uncertainty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Binquan Li

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Possible risks in reservoir flood control and regulation cannot be objectively assessed by deterministic flood forecasts, resulting in the probability of reservoir failure. We demonstrated a risk analysis of reservoir flood routing calculation accounting for inflow forecast uncertainty in a sub-basin of Huaihe River, China. The Xinanjiang model was used to provide deterministic flood forecasts, and was combined with the Hydrologic Uncertainty Processor (HUP to quantify reservoir inflow uncertainty in the probability density function (PDF form. Furthermore, the PDFs of reservoir water level (RWL and the risk rate of RWL exceeding a defined safety control level could be obtained. Results suggested that the median forecast (50th percentiles of HUP showed better agreement with observed inflows than the Xinanjiang model did in terms of the performance measures of flood process, peak, and volume. In addition, most observations (77.2% were bracketed by the uncertainty band of 90% confidence interval, with some small exceptions of high flows. Results proved that this framework of risk analysis could provide not only the deterministic forecasts of inflow and RWL, but also the fundamental uncertainty information (e.g., 90% confidence band for the reservoir flood routing calculation.

  4. Risk, probability and uncertainty in the calculations of gas cooled reactor of PBMR type. Part 2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Serbanescu, Dan

    2004-01-01

    The paper presents the main conclusions of the insights to a cooled gas reactor from the perspective of the following notions: probability, uncertainty, entropy and risk. Some results of the on-going comparison between the insights obtained from three models and approaches are presented. The approaches consider the Pebble Bed Module Reactor (PBMR) NPP as a thermodynamic installation and as hierarchical system with or without considering the information exchange between its various levels. The existing model was a basis for a PRA going on in phases for PBMR. In the first part of this paper results from phase II of this PRA were presented. Further activities going on in the preparation for phase II PRA and for the development of a specific application of using PRA during the design phases for PBMR are undergoing with some preliminary results and conclusions. However, for the purposes of this paper and the comparative review of various models in the part two one presents the risk model (model B) based on the assumption and ideas laid down at the basis of the future inter-comparison of this model with other plant models. The assumptions concern: the uncertainties for the quantification of frequencies; list of initiated events; interfaces with the deterministic calculation; integrated evaluation of all the plant states; risk of the release of radionuclide; the balance between the number and function of the active systems and the passive systems; systems interdependencies in PBMR PRA; use of PRA for the evaluation of the impact of various design changes on plant risk. The model B allows basically evaluating the level of risk of the plant by calculating it as a result of acceptance challenge to the plant. By using this model the departure from a reference state is given by the variation in the risk metrics adopted for the study. The paper present also the synergetic model (model C). The evaluation of risk in the model C is considering also the information process. The

  5. A Non-parametric Method for Calculating Conditional Stressed Value at Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kohei Marumo

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available We consider the Value at Risk (VaR of a portfolio under stressed conditions. In practice, the stressed VaR (sVaR is commonly calculated using the data set that includes the stressed period. It tells us how much the risk amount increases if we use the stressed data set. In this paper, we consider the VaR under stress scenarios. Technically, this can be done by deriving the distribution of profit or loss conditioned on the value of risk factors. We use two methods; the one that uses the linear model and the one that uses the Hermite expansion discussed by Marumo and Wolff (2013, 2016. Numerical examples shows that the method using the Hermite expansion is capable of capturing the non-linear effects such as correlation collapse and volatility clustering, which are often observed in the markets.

  6. Development and Validation of a Clinically Based Risk Calculator for the Transdiagnostic Prediction of Psychosis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rutigliano, Grazia; Stahl, Daniel; Davies, Cathy; Bonoldi, Ilaria; Reilly, Thomas; McGuire, Philip

    2017-01-01

    Importance The overall effect of At Risk Mental State (ARMS) services for the detection of individuals who will develop psychosis in secondary mental health care is undetermined. Objective To measure the proportion of individuals with a first episode of psychosis detected by ARMS services in secondary mental health services, and to develop and externally validate a practical web-based individualized risk calculator tool for the transdiagnostic prediction of psychosis in secondary mental health care. Design, Setting, and Participants Clinical register-based cohort study. Patients were drawn from electronic, real-world, real-time clinical records relating to 2008 to 2015 routine secondary mental health care in the South London and the Maudsley National Health Service Foundation Trust. The study included all patients receiving a first index diagnosis of nonorganic and nonpsychotic mental disorder within the South London and the Maudsley National Health Service Foundation Trust in the period between January 1, 2008, and December 31, 2015. Data analysis began on September 1, 2016. Main Outcomes and Measures Risk of development of nonorganic International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems, Tenth Revision psychotic disorders. Results A total of 91 199 patients receiving a first index diagnosis of nonorganic and nonpsychotic mental disorder within South London and the Maudsley National Health Service Foundation Trust were included in the derivation (n = 33 820) or external validation (n = 54 716) data sets. The mean age was 32.97 years, 50.88% were men, and 61.05% were white race/ethnicity. The mean follow-up was 1588 days. The overall 6-year risk of psychosis in secondary mental health care was 3.02 (95% CI, 2.88-3.15), which is higher than the 6-year risk in the local general population (0.62). Compared with the ARMS designation, all of the International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems

  7. DSTiPE Algorithm for Fuzzy Spatio-Temporal Risk Calculation in Wireless Environments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kurt Derr; Milos Manic

    2008-09-01

    Time and location data play a very significant role in a variety of factory automation scenarios, such as automated vehicles and robots, their navigation, tracking, and monitoring, to services of optimization and security. In addition, pervasive wireless capabilities combined with time and location information are enabling new applications in areas such as transportation systems, health care, elder care, military, emergency response, critical infrastructure, and law enforcement. A person/object in proximity to certain areas for specific durations of time may pose a risk hazard either to themselves, others, or the environment. This paper presents a novel fuzzy based spatio-temporal risk calculation DSTiPE method that an object with wireless communications presents to the environment. The presented Matlab based application for fuzzy spatio-temporal risk cluster extraction is verified on a diagonal vehicle movement example.

  8. European Randomized Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer Risk Calculator: External Validation, Variability, and Clinical Significance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gómez-Gómez, Enrique; Carrasco-Valiente, Julia; Blanca-Pedregosa, Ana; Barco-Sánchez, Beatriz; Fernandez-Rueda, Jose Luis; Molina-Abril, Helena; Valero-Rosa, Jose; Font-Ugalde, Pilar; Requena-Tapia, Maria José

    2017-04-01

    To externally validate the European Randomized Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer (ERSPC) risk calculator (RC) and to evaluate its variability between 2 consecutive prostate-specific antigen (PSA) values. We prospectively catalogued 1021 consecutive patients before prostate biopsy for suspicion of prostate cancer (PCa). The risk of PCa and significant PCa (Gleason score ≥7) from 749 patients was calculated according to ERSPC-RC (digital rectal examination-based version 3 of 4) for 2 consecutive PSA tests per patient. The calculators' predictions were analyzed using calibration plots and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (area under the curve). Cohen kappa coefficient was used to compare the ability and variability. Of 749 patients, PCa was detected in 251 (33.5%) and significant PCa was detected in 133 (17.8%). Calibration plots showed an acceptable parallelism and similar discrimination ability for both PSA levels with an area under the curve of 0.69 for PCa and 0.74 for significant PCa. The ERSPC showed 226 (30.2%) unnecessary biopsies with the loss of 10 significant PCa. The variability of the RC was 16% for PCa and 20% for significant PCa, and a higher variability was associated with a reduced risk of significant PCa. We can conclude that the performance of the ERSPC-RC in the present cohort shows a high similitude between the 2 PSA levels; however, the RC variability value is associated with a decreased risk of significant PCa. The use of the ERSPC in our cohort detects a high number of unnecessary biopsies. Thus, the incorporation of ERSPC-RC could help the clinical decision to carry out a prostate biopsy. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Radiation therapy for stage IIA and IIB testicular seminoma: peripheral dose calculations and risk assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mazonakis, Michalis; Berris, Theocharris; Lyraraki, Efrossyni; Damilakis, John

    2015-03-01

    This study was conducted to calculate the peripheral dose to critical structures and assess the radiation risks from modern radiotherapy for stage IIA/IIB testicular seminoma. A Monte Carlo code was used for treatment simulation on a computational phantom representing an average adult. The initial treatment phase involved anteroposterior and posteroanaterior modified dog-leg fields exposing para-aortic and ipsilateral iliac lymph nodes followed by a cone-down phase for nodal mass irradiation. Peripheral doses were calculated using different modified dog-leg field dimensions and an extended conventional dog-leg portal. The risk models of the BEIR-VII report and ICRP-103 were combined with dosimetric calculations to estimate the probability of developing stochastic effects. Radiotherapy for stage IIA seminoma with a target dose of 30 Gy resulted in a range of 23.0-603.7 mGy to non-targeted peripheral tissues and organs. The corresponding range for treatment of stage IIB disease to a cumulative dose of 36 Gy was 24.2-633.9 mGy. A dose variation of less than 13% was found by altering the field dimensions. Radiotherapy with the conventional instead of the modern modified dog-leg field increased the peripheral dose up to 8.2 times. The calculated heart doses of 589.0-632.9 mGy may increase the risk for developing cardiovascular diseases whereas the testicular dose of more than 231.9 mGy may lead to a temporary infertility. The probability of birth abnormalities in the offspring of cancer survivors was below 0.13% which is much lower than the spontaneous mutation rate. Abdominoplevic irradiation may increase the lifetime intrinsic risk for the induction of secondary malignancies by 0.6-3.9% depending upon the site of interest, patient’s age and tumor dose. Radiotherapy for stage IIA/IIB seminoma with restricted fields and low doses is associated with an increased morbidity. These data may allow the definition of a risk-adapted follow-up scheme for long

  10. Calculating background levels for ecological risk parameters in toxic harbor sediment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leadon, C.J.; McDonnell, T.R.; Lear, J.; Barclift, D.

    2007-01-01

    Establishing background levels for biological parameters is necessary in assessing the ecological risks from harbor sediment contaminated with toxic chemicals. For chemicals in sediment, the term contaminated is defined as having concentrations above background and significant human health or ecological risk levels. For biological parameters, a site could be considered contaminated if levels of the parameter are either more or less than the background level, depending on the specific parameter. Biological parameters can include tissue chemical concentrations in ecological receptors, bioassay responses, bioaccumulation levels, and benthic community metrics. Chemical parameters can include sediment concentrations of a variety of potentially toxic chemicals. Indirectly, contaminated harbor sediment can impact shellfish, fish, birds, and marine mammals, and human populations. This paper summarizes the methods used to define background levels for chemical and biological parameters from a survey of ecological risk investigations of marine harbor sediment at California Navy bases. Background levels for regional biological indices used to quantify ecological risks for benthic communities are also described. Generally, background stations are positioned in relatively clean areas exhibiting the same physical and general chemical characteristics as nearby areas with contaminated harbor sediment. The number of background stations and the number of sample replicates per background station depend on the statistical design of the sediment ecological risk investigation, developed through the data quality objective (DQO) process. Biological data from the background stations can be compared to data from a contaminated site by using minimum or maximum background levels or comparative statistics. In Navy ecological risk assessments (ERA's), calculated background levels and appropriate ecological risk screening criteria are used to identify sampling stations and sites with contaminated

  11. Risks of transport of radioactive materials on the road; some exploring calculations performed with the INTERTRAN-model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1987-04-01

    Under the auspices of the IAEA a computercode, named INTERTRAN, has been developed in order to calculate the risks of the transport of radioactive materials. This code has to be tested nearer. For the Dutch situation a number of calculations has been performed of more or less realistic cases in which four transport streams have been investigated. Two transport routes are chosen. The risks thus obtained are compared quantitatively with the risks of LPG-transports. 4 refs.; 9 figs

  12. Comparing Methods of Calculating Expected Annual Damage in Urban Pluvial Flood Risk Assessments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anders Skovgård Olsen

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Estimating the expected annual damage (EAD due to flooding in an urban area is of great interest for urban water managers and other stakeholders. It is a strong indicator for a given area showing how vulnerable it is to flood risk and how much can be gained by implementing e.g., climate change adaptation measures. This study identifies and compares three different methods for estimating the EAD based on unit costs of flooding of urban assets. One of these methods was used in previous studies and calculates the EAD based on a few extreme events by assuming a log-linear relationship between cost of an event and the corresponding return period. This method is compared to methods that are either more complicated or require more calculations. The choice of method by which the EAD is calculated appears to be of minor importance. At all three case study areas it seems more important that there is a shift in the damage costs as a function of the return period. The shift occurs approximately at the 10 year return period and can perhaps be related to the design criteria for sewer systems. Further, it was tested if the EAD estimation could be simplified by assuming a single unit cost per flooded area. The results indicate that within each catchment this may be a feasible approach. However the unit costs varies substantially between different case study areas. Hence it is not feasible to develop unit costs that can be used to calculate EAD, most likely because the urban landscape is too heterogeneous.

  13. Neutronics calculations for denatured molten salt reactors: Assessing resource requirements and proliferation-risk attributes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ahmad, Ali; McClamrock, Edward B.; Glaser, Alexander

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • We study the proliferation-risk and resource attributes of denatured MSRs. • MSRs offer significantly better resource efficiency compared to light-water reactors. • Denatured single-fluid MSRs reactors offer promising non-proliferation attributes. - Abstract: Molten salt reactors (MSRs) are often advocated as a radical but worthwhile alternative to traditional reactor concepts based on solid fuels. This article builds upon the existing research into MSRs to model and simulate the operation of thorium-fueled single-fluid and two-fluid reactors. The analysis is based on neutronics calculations and focuses on denatured MSR systems. Resource utilization and basic proliferation-risk attributes are compared to those of standard light-water reactors. Depending on specific design choices, even fully denatured reactors could reduce uranium and enrichment requirements by a factor of 3–4. Overall, denatured single-fluid designs appear as the most promising candidate technology minimizing both design complexity and overall proliferation risks despite being somewhat less attractive from the perspective of resource utilization

  14. Calculated and perceived cardiovascular risk in asymptomatic subjects submitted to a routine medical evaluation: The perception gap.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Katz, Marcelo; Laurinavicius, Antonio G; Franco, Fabio G M; Conceicao, Raquel D; Carvalho, Jose A M; Pesaro, Antonio E P; Wajngarten, Mauricio; Santos, Raul D

    2015-08-01

    Poor adherence to medical treatment represents a major health problem. A subject's misperception of his own cardiovascular risk has been indicated as a key driver for low compliance with preventive measures. This study analysed the relationship between objectively calculated short- and long-term cardiovascular risk and its subjective perception. Cross-sectional study in asymptomatic Brazilian subjects. Individuals (N = 6544, mean age 49.1 ± 7 years, 22.2% female) who underwent a routine mandatory health evaluation were studied. A questionnaire in which each individual rated his own cardiovascular risk as low, intermediate or high according to his own perception was used. The 10-year and lifetime cardiovascular risk were calculated respectively using the Framingham risk (FRS) and Lifetime risk (LRS) scores. Individuals were classified as hypo-perceivers (i.e. perceived risk lower than estimated risk), normo-perceivers (i.e. perceived risk coincident with estimated risk) and hyper-perceivers (i.e. perceived risk higher than estimated risk). Cardiovascular risk, using the FRS, was low in 77.9% (N = 5071), intermediate in 14.4% (N = 939) and high in 7.7% (N = 499) of subjects. Cardiovascular risk, using the LRS, was low in 7.6% (N = 492), intermediate in 43.1% (N = 2787) and high in 49.3% (N = 3184) of the study population. The prevalence of normo-perceivers was 57.6% using the FRS and only 20.6% using the LRS. Using the LRS, 72.3% of the intermediate and 91.2% of the high-risk subjects were hypo-perceivers. In a large sample of asymptomatic individuals, there was a gap between calculated and perceived cardiovascular risk. Using a long-term risk score, most of the intermediate- and high-risk subjects were hypo-perceivers. © The European Society of Cardiology 2014.

  15. The ICRP opinion of the calculation of doses and risks associated with exposures to tritium

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Paquetla, F.; Harrison, J.

    2009-01-01

    As the management of exposures to tritium, just like for other radionuclides, relies on the effective dose calculation, it also requires the application of coefficients to take the variety of radiations and the sensitivity of the different irradiated tissues into account. The authors discuss the determination and the use of the weighting factor (Wr) which reflects the relative biological effectiveness (RBE) of different types of radiation. They outline that some researchers asked for a review of this factor, and that the RBE is related to several parameters. All this and other issues entail uncertainties. The authors then give the opinion of the ICRP on this issue and notably for the assessment of the individual risk of cancer after exposure to tritium

  16. Potential impact of ICRP-30 on the calculated risk from waste repositories

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Croff, A.G.

    1981-01-01

    As a result of the large body of information that has been gathered since ICRP-2 was published (1959), the ICRP has undertaken the task of updating its radiation protection guidance. This update involves revision of the primary radiation guidance as well as the recalculation of intake limits (ICRP-30) based on update biological models, updated nuclide decay schemes, and a new method accounting for simultaneous dose to more than one organ. A detailed analysis of the impacts of ICRP-30 on waste repository safety and risk analyses would require an extensive and detailed study that has not yet been undertaken. Nevertheless, it is possible to identify, in an approximate manner, the impact of using ICRP-30 instead of 10 CFR 20/ICRP-2 in calculating the risk from radioactive repositories. Toward this end, the numerical guidance of ICRP-30 has been obtained and converted into RCG values for the general public using the same methods that were employed in deriving 10 CFR 20. The conversion was cross-checked by comparing 10 CFR 20 and ICRP-30-based values that were known to have remained the same. The most restrictive ICRP-30 RCGs were incorporated into the ORIGEN2 computer code, which was then used to calculate the toxicity of some radioactive materials of interest in waste repository considerations. As a basis for discussion, the toxicities of the spent fuel from a PWR and of the uranium ore required to make the fuel are given for both the 10 CFR 20 and ICRP-30-based RCGs. As is evident, the use of the revised RCGs reduces the toxicity of the spent fuel at times less than 100 years and increases the toxicity at times thereafter

  17. Application of CFD dispersion calculation in risk based inspection for release of H2S

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sharma, Pavan K.; Vinod, Gopika; Singh, R.K.; Rao, V.V.S.S.; Vaze, K.K.

    2011-01-01

    In atmospheric dispersion both deterministic and probabilistic approached have been used for addressing design and regulatory concerns. In context of deterministic calculations the amount of pollutants dispersion in the atmosphere is an important area wherein different approaches are followed in development of good analytical model. The analysis based on Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) codes offer an opportunity of model development based on first principles of physics and hence such models have an edge over the existing models. In context of probabilistic methods applying risk based inspection (wherein consequence of failure from each component needs to be assessed) are becoming popular. Consequence evaluation in a process plant is a crucial task. Often the number of components considered for life management will be too huge. Also consequence evaluation of all the components proved to be laborious task. The present paper is the results of joint collaborative work from deterministic and probabilistic modelling group working in the field of atmospheric dispersion. Even though API 581 has simplified qualitative approach, regulators find the some of the factors, in particular, quantity factor, not suitable for process plants. Often dispersion calculations for heavy gas are done with very simple model which can not take care of density based atmospheric dispersion. This necessitates a new approach with a CFD based technical basis is proposed, so that the range of quantity considered along with factors used can be justified. The present paper is aimed at bringing out some of the distinct merits and demerits of the CFD based models. A brief account of the applications of such CFD codes reported in literature is also presented in the paper. This paper describes the approach devised and demonstrated for the said issue with emphasis of CFD calculations. (author)

  18. Calculation of the ALMA Risk of Right Ventricular Failure After Left Ventricular Assist Device Implantation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loforte, Antonio; Montalto, Andrea; Musumeci, Francesco; Amarelli, Cristiano; Mariani, Carlo; Polizzi, Vincenzo; Lilla Della Monica, Paola; Grigioni, Francesco; Di Bartolomeo, Roberto; Marinelli, Giuseppe

    2018-05-08

    Right ventricular failure after continuous-flow left ventricular assist device (LVAD) implantation is still an unsolved issue and remains a life-threatening event for patients. We undertook this study to determine predictors of the patients who are candidates for isolated LVAD therapy as opposed to biventricular support (BVAD). We reviewed demographic, echocardiographic, hemodynamic, and laboratory variables for 258 patients who underwent both isolated LVAD implantation and unplanned BVAD because of early right ventricular failure after LVAD insertion, between 2006 and 2017 (LVAD = 170 and BVAD = 88). The final study patients were randomly divided into derivation (79.8%, n = 206) and validation (20.1%, n = 52) cohorts. Fifty-seven preoperative risk factors were compared between patients who were successfully managed with an LVAD and those who required a BVAD. Nineteen variables demonstrated statistical significance on univariable analysis. Multivariable logistic regression analysis identified destination therapy (odds ratio [OR] 2.0 [1.7-3.9], p = 0.003), a pulmonary artery pulsatility index right ventricle/left ventricle end-diastolic diameter ratio >0.75 (OR 2.7 [1.5-5.5], p = 0.001), an right ventricle stroke work index 17 (OR 3.5 [1.9-6.9], p the major predictors of the need for BVAD. Using these data, we propose a simple risk calculator to determine the suitability of patients for isolated LVAD support in the era of continuous-flow mechanical circulatory support devices.

  19. From Risk Models to Loan Contracts: Austerity as the Continuation of Calculation by Other Means

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pierre Pénet

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available This article analyses how financial actors sought to minimise financial uncertainties during the European sovereign debt crisis by employing simulations as legal instruments of market regulation. We first contrast two roles that simulations can play in sovereign debt markets: ‘simulation-hypotheses’, which work as bundles of constantly updated hypotheses with the goal of better predicting financial risks; and ‘simulation-fictions’, which provide fixed narratives about the present with the purpose of postponing the revision of market risks. Using ratings reports published by Moody’s on Greece and European Central Bank (ECB regulations, we show that Moody’s stuck to a simulationfiction and displayed rating inertia on Greece’s trustworthiness to prevent the destabilising effects that further downgrades would have on Greek borrowing costs. We also show that the multi-notch downgrade issued by Moody’s in June 2010 followed the ECB’s decision to remove ratings from its collateral eligibility requirements. Then, as regulators moved from ‘regulation through model’ to ‘regulation through contract’, ratings stopped functioning as simulation-fictions. Indeed, the conditions of the Greek bailout implemented in May 2010 replaced the CRAs’ models as the main simulation-fiction, which market actors employed to postpone the prospect of a Greek default. We conclude by presenting austerity measures as instruments of calculative governance rather than ideological compacts

  20. The risk of a major nuclear accident: calculation and perception of probabilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leveque, Francois

    2013-07-01

    The accident at Fukushima Daiichi, Japan, occurred on 11 March 2011. This nuclear disaster, the third on such a scale, left a lasting mark in the minds of hundreds of millions of people. Much as Three Mile Island or Chernobyl, yet another place will be permanently associated with a nuclear power plant which went out of control. Fukushima Daiichi revived the issue of the hazards of civil nuclear power, stirring up all the associated passion and emotion. The whole of this paper is devoted to the risk of a major nuclear accident. By this we mean a failure initiating core meltdown, a situation in which the fuel rods melt and mix with the metal in their cladding. Such accidents are classified as at least level 5 on the International Nuclear Event Scale. The Three Mile Island accident, which occurred in 1979 in the United States, reached this level of severity. The explosion of reactor 4 at the Chernobyl plant in Ukraine in 1986 and the recent accident in Japan were classified as class 7, the highest grade on this logarithmic scale. The main difference between the top two levels and level 5 relates to a significant or major release of radioactive material to the environment. In the event of a level-5 accident, damage is restricted to the inside of the plant, whereas, in the case of level-7 accidents, huge areas of land, above or below the surface, and/or sea may be contaminated. Before the meltdown of reactors 1, 2 and 3 at Fukushima Daiichi, eight major accidents affecting nuclear power plants had occurred worldwide. This is a high figure compared with the one calculated by the experts. Observations in the field do not appear to fit the results of the probabilistic models of nuclear accidents produced since the 1970's. Oddly enough the number of major accidents is closer to the risk as perceived by the general public. In general we tend to overestimate any risk relating to rare, fearsome accidents. What are we to make of this divergence? How are we to reconcile

  1. Arsenic: bioaccessibility from seaweed and rice, dietary exposure calculations and risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brandon, Esther F A; Janssen, Paul J C M; de Wit-Bos, Lianne

    2014-01-01

    Arsenic is a metalloid that occurs in food and the environment in different chemical forms. Inorganic arsenic is classified as a class I carcinogen. The inorganic arsenic intake from food and drinking water varies depending on the geographic arsenic background. Non-dietary exposure to arsenic is likely to be of minor importance for the general population within the European Union. In Europe, arsenic in drinking water is on average low, but food products (e.g. rice and seaweed) are imported from all over the world including from regions with naturally high arsenic levels. Therefore, specific populations living in Europe could also have a high exposure to inorganic arsenic due to their consumption pattern. Current risk assessment is based on exposure via drinking water. For a good estimation of the risks of arsenic in food, it is important to investigate if the bioavailability of inorganic arsenic from food is different from drinking water. The present study further explores the issue of European dietary exposure to inorganic arsenic via rice and seaweed and its associated health risks. The bioavailability of inorganic arsenic was measured in in vitro digestion experiments. The data indicate that the bioavailability of inorganic arsenic is similar for rice and seaweed compared with drinking water. The calculated dietary intake for specific European Union populations varied between 0.44 and 4.51 µg kg⁻¹ bw day⁻¹. The margins of exposure between the inorganic intake levels and the BMDL0.5 values as derived by JECFA are low. Decreasing the intake of inorganic arsenic via Hijiki seaweed could be achieved by setting legal limits similar to those set for rice by the Codex Alimentarius Commission in July 2014.

  2. The impact of using weight estimated from mammographic images vs. self-reported weight on breast cancer risk calculation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nair, Kalyani P.; Harkness, Elaine F.; Gadde, Soujanye; Lim, Yit Y.; Maxwell, Anthony J.; Moschidis, Emmanouil; Foden, Philip; Cuzick, Jack; Brentnall, Adam; Evans, D. Gareth; Howell, Anthony; Astley, Susan M.

    2017-03-01

    Personalised breast screening requires assessment of individual risk of breast cancer, of which one contributory factor is weight. Self-reported weight has been used for this purpose, but may be unreliable. We explore the use of volume of fat in the breast, measured from digital mammograms. Volumetric breast density measurements were used to determine the volume of fat in the breasts of 40,431 women taking part in the Predicting Risk Of Cancer At Screening (PROCAS) study. Tyrer-Cuzick risk using self-reported weight was calculated for each woman. Weight was also estimated from the relationship between self-reported weight and breast fat volume in the cohort, and used to re-calculate Tyrer-Cuzick risk. Women were assigned to risk categories according to 10 year risk (below average =8%) and the original and re-calculated Tyrer-Cuzick risks were compared. Of the 716 women diagnosed with breast cancer during the study, 15 (2.1%) moved into a lower risk category, and 37 (5.2%) moved into a higher category when using weight estimated from breast fat volume. Of the 39,715 women without a cancer diagnosis, 1009 (2.5%) moved into a lower risk category, and 1721 (4.3%) into a higher risk category. The majority of changes were between below average and average risk categories (38.5% of those with a cancer diagnosis, and 34.6% of those without). No individual moved more than one risk group. Automated breast fat measures may provide a suitable alternative to self-reported weight for risk assessment in personalized screening.

  3. Development and external multicenter validation of Chinese Prostate Cancer Consortium prostate cancer risk calculator for initial prostate biopsy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Rui; Xie, Liping; Xue, Wei; Ye, Zhangqun; Ma, Lulin; Gao, Xu; Ren, Shancheng; Wang, Fubo; Zhao, Lin; Xu, Chuanliang; Sun, Yinghao

    2016-09-01

    Substantial differences exist in the relationship of prostate cancer (PCa) detection rate and prostate-specific antigen (PSA) level between Western and Asian populations. Classic Western risk calculators, European Randomized Study for Screening of Prostate Cancer Risk Calculator, and Prostate Cancer Prevention Trial Risk Calculator, were shown to be not applicable in Asian populations. We aimed to develop and validate a risk calculator for predicting the probability of PCa and high-grade PCa (defined as Gleason Score sum 7 or higher) at initial prostate biopsy in Chinese men. Urology outpatients who underwent initial prostate biopsy according to the inclusion criteria were included. The multivariate logistic regression-based Chinese Prostate Cancer Consortium Risk Calculator (CPCC-RC) was constructed with cases from 2 hospitals in Shanghai. Discriminative ability, calibration and decision curve analysis were externally validated in 3 CPCC member hospitals. Of the 1,835 patients involved, PCa was identified in 338/924 (36.6%) and 294/911 (32.3%) men in the development and validation cohort, respectively. Multivariate logistic regression analyses showed that 5 predictors (age, logPSA, logPV, free PSA ratio, and digital rectal examination) were associated with PCa (Model 1) or high-grade PCa (Model 2), respectively. The area under the curve of Model 1 and Model 2 was 0.801 (95% CI: 0.771-0.831) and 0.826 (95% CI: 0.796-0.857), respectively. Both models illustrated good calibration and substantial improvement in decision curve analyses than any single predictors at all threshold probabilities. Higher predicting accuracy, better calibration, and greater clinical benefit were achieved by CPCC-RC, compared with European Randomized Study for Screening of Prostate Cancer Risk Calculator and Prostate Cancer Prevention Trial Risk Calculator in predicting PCa. CPCC-RC performed well in discrimination and calibration and decision curve analysis in external validation compared

  4. Development and application of a geospatial wildfire exposure and risk calculation tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matthew P. Thompson; Jessica R. Haas; Julie W. Gilbertson-Day; Joe H. Scott; Paul Langowski; Elise Bowne; David E. Calkin

    2015-01-01

    Applying wildfire risk assessment models can inform investments in loss mitigation and landscape restoration, and can be used to monitor spatiotemporal trends in risk. Assessing wildfire risk entails the integration of fire modeling outputs, maps of highly valued resources and assets (HVRAs), characterization of fire effects, and articulation of relative importance...

  5. Upper Gastrointestinal Complications and Cardiovascular/Gastrointestinal Risk Calculator in Patients with Myocardial Infarction Treated with Aspirin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wen, Lei

    2017-08-20

    Aspirin is widely used for the prevention of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases for the past few years. However, much attention has been paid to the adverse effects associated with aspirin such as gastrointestinal bleeding. How to weigh the benefits and hazards? The current study aimed to assess the feasibility of a cardiovascular/gastrointestinal risk calculator, AsaRiskCalculator, in predicting gastrointestinal events in Chinese patients with myocardial infarction (MI), determining unique risk factor(s) for gastrointestinal events to be considered in the calculator. The MI patients who visited Shapingba District People's Hospital between January 2012 and January 2016 were retrospectively reviewed. Based on gastroscopic data, the patients were divided into two groups: gastrointestinal and nongastrointestinal groups. Demographic and clinical data of the patients were then retrieved for statistical analysis. Univariate and multiple logistic regression analyses were used to identify independent risk factors for gastrointestinal events. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were used to assess the predictive value of AsaRiskCalculator for gastrointestinal events. A total of 400 MI patients meeting the eligibility criteria were analyzed, including 94 and 306 in the gastrointestinal and nongastrointestinal groups, respectively. The data showed that age, male gender, predicted gastrointestinal events, and Helicobacter pylori (HP) infection were positively correlated with gastrointestinal events. In multiple logistic regression analysis, predicted gastrointestinal events and HP infection were identified as risk factors for actual gastrointestinal events. HP infection was highly predictive in Chinese patients; the ROC curve indicated an area under the curve of 0.822 (95% confidence interval: 0.774-0.870). The best diagnostic cutoff point of predicted gastrointestinal events was 68.0‰, yielding sensitivity and specificity of 60.6% and 93

  6. Effects of Intervention to Improve At-Risk Fourth Graders' Understanding, Calculations, and Word Problems with Fractions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuchs, Lynn S.; Schumacher, Robin F.; Long, Jessica; Namkung, Jessica; Malone, Amelia S.; Wang, Amber; Hamlett, Carol L.; Jordan, Nancy C.; Siegler, Robert S.; Changas, Paul

    2016-01-01

    The purposes of this study were to (a) investigate the efficacy of a core fraction intervention program on understanding and calculation skill and (b) isolate the effects of different forms of fraction word-problem (WP) intervention. At-risk fourth graders (n = 213) were randomly assigned to the school's business-as-usual program, or one of two…

  7. Effects of Intervention to Improve At-Risk Fourth Graders' Understanding, Calculations, and Word Problems with Fractions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuchs, Lynn S.; Schumacher, Robin F.; Long, Jessica; Namkung, Jessica; Malone, Amelia S.; Wang, Amber; Hamlett, Carol L.; Jordan, Nancy C.; Siegler, Robert S.; Changas, Paul

    2016-01-01

    The purposes of this study were to (a) investigate the efficacy of a core fraction intervention program on understanding and calculation skill and (b) isolate the effects of different forms of fraction word-problem (WP) intervention delivered as part of the larger program. At-risk 4th graders (n = 213) were randomly assigned at the individual…

  8. Calculating disability-adjusted life years (DALY) as a measure of excess cancer risk following radiation exposure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shimada, K; Kai, M

    2015-01-01

    This paper has proposed that disability-adjusted life year (DALY) can be used as a measure of radiation health risk. DALY is calculated as the sum of years of life lost (YLL) and years lived with disability (YLD). This multidimensional concept can be expressed as a risk index without a probability measure to avoid the misuse of the current radiation detriment at low doses. In this study, we calculated YLL and YLD using Japanese population data by gender. DALY for all cancers in Japan per 1 Gy per person was 0.84 year in men and 1.34 year in women. The DALY for all cancers in the Japanese baseline was 4.8 in men and 3.5 in women. When we calculated the ICRP detriment from the same data, DALYs for the cancer sites were similar to the radiation detriment in the cancer sites, excluding leukemia, breast and thyroid cancer. These results suggested that the ICRP detriment overestimate the weighting fraction of leukemia risk and underestimate the weighting fraction of breast and thyroid cancer. A big advantage over the ICRP detriment is that DALY can calculate the risk components for non-fatal diseases without the data of lethality. This study showed that DALY is a practical tool that can compare many types of diseases encountered in public health. (paper)

  9. A method for determining weights for excess relative risk and excess absolute risk when applied in the calculation of lifetime risk of cancer from radiation exposure

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Walsh, Linda [Federal Office for Radiation Protection, Department of Radiation Protection and Health, Oberschleissheim (Germany); University of Manchester, The Faculty of Medical and Human Sciences, Manchester (United Kingdom); Schneider, Uwe [University of Zurich, Vetsuisse Faculty, Zurich (Switzerland); Radiotherapy Hirslanden AG, Aarau (Switzerland)

    2013-03-15

    Radiation-related risks of cancer can be transported from one population to another population at risk, for the purpose of calculating lifetime risks from radiation exposure. Transfer via excess relative risks (ERR) or excess absolute risks (EAR) or a mixture of both (i.e., from the life span study (LSS) of Japanese atomic bomb survivors) has been done in the past based on qualitative weighting. Consequently, the values of the weights applied and the method of application of the weights (i.e., as additive or geometric weighted means) have varied both between reports produced at different times by the same regulatory body and also between reports produced at similar times by different regulatory bodies. Since the gender and age patterns are often markedly different between EAR and ERR models, it is useful to have an evidence-based method for determining the relative goodness of fit of such models to the data. This paper identifies a method, using Akaike model weights, which could aid expert judgment and be applied to help to achieve consistency of approach and quantitative evidence-based results in future health risk assessments. The results of applying this method to recent LSS cancer incidence models are that the relative EAR weighting by cancer solid cancer site, on a scale of 0-1, is zero for breast and colon, 0.02 for all solid, 0.03 for lung, 0.08 for liver, 0.15 for thyroid, 0.18 for bladder and 0.93 for stomach. The EAR weighting for female breast cancer increases from 0 to 0.3, if a generally observed change in the trend between female age-specific breast cancer incidence rates and attained age, associated with menopause, is accounted for in the EAR model. Application of this method to preferred models from a study of multi-model inference from many models fitted to the LSS leukemia mortality data, results in an EAR weighting of 0. From these results it can be seen that lifetime risk transfer is most highly weighted by EAR only for stomach cancer. However

  10. A longitudinal study on predictors of early calculation development among young children at risk for learning difficulties.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peng, Peng; Namkung, Jessica M; Fuchs, Douglas; Fuchs, Lynn S; Patton, Samuel; Yen, Loulee; Compton, Donald L; Zhang, Wenjuan; Miller, Amanda; Hamlett, Carol

    2016-12-01

    The purpose of this study was to explore domain-general cognitive skills, domain-specific academic skills, and demographic characteristics that are associated with calculation development from first grade to third grade among young children with learning difficulties. Participants were 176 children identified with reading and mathematics difficulties at the beginning of first grade. Data were collected on working memory, language, nonverbal reasoning, processing speed, decoding, numerical competence, incoming calculations, socioeconomic status, and gender at the beginning of first grade and on calculation performance at four time points: the beginning of first grade, the end of first grade, the end of second grade, and the end of third grade. Latent growth modeling analysis showed that numerical competence, incoming calculation, processing speed, and decoding skills significantly explained the variance in calculation performance at the beginning of first grade. Numerical competence and processing speed significantly explained the variance in calculation performance at the end of third grade. However, numerical competence was the only significant predictor of calculation development from the beginning of first grade to the end of third grade. Implications of these findings for early calculation instructions among young at-risk children are discussed. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  11. Risk-centered calculation of network charges in the power transmission sector; Risikoorientierte Kalkulation von Netznutzungsentgelten in der Stromverteilungswirtschaft

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Maennel, W. [Friedrich-Alexander-Univ., Erlangen-Nuernberg (Germany). Betriebswirtschafliches Inst.

    2004-04-01

    Utilities insist that contrary to the opinions of the Federal Cartel Office and network users, distribution network operation is a high-risk enterprise. The contribution starts by listing typical relevant risks in power distribution and then proceeds to discussing risk factors one by one. Empirical findings generated with the Capital Asset Pricing Mode (CAPM) prove that the conservative approach for calculating the risk-based surcharges laid down in the VV II plus agreement is appropriate. (orig./CB) [German] Entgegen der Auffassung von Bundeskartellbehoerden und Netznutzern ist das stark anlagenintensive Netzgeschaeft mit bedeutsamen Unternehmerrisiken behaftet, deren Ueberwaelzung nur begrenzt moeglich ist. Ausgehend von generell bedeutsamen und typischen Unternehmerrisiken im Stromverteilungssektor beschaeftigt sich der Artikel mit den direkt auf die Eigenkapitalverzinsung einwirkenden Risikofaktoren. Mit dem Capital Asset Pricing Mode (CAPM) genierierte empirische Befunde bestaetigen die konservativen Wagniszuschlaege in der VV II plus. (orig.)

  12. Definition of the risk grounding fatalities due to unintentional airplane crashes by calculates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    І.Л. Государська

    2005-04-01

    Full Text Available  Estimates of the expected number of grounding fatalities, are given which probably will arise due to accident of air carriers, air taxi and general aviation. Measures regulation of the risk is considered.

  13. First-trimester risk calculation for trisomy 13, 18, and 21: comparison of the screening efficiency between 2 locally developed programs and commercial software

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Steen; Momsen, Günther; Sundberg, Karin

    2011-01-01

    -A) in maternal plasma from unaffected pregnancies. Means and SDs of these parameters in unaffected and affected pregnancies are used in the risk calculation program. Unfortunately, our commercial program for risk calculation (Astraia) did not allow use of local medians. We developed 2 alternative risk...... calculation programs to assess whether the screening efficacies for T13, T18, and T21 could be improved by using our locally estimated medians....

  14. Bayesian Algorithm Implementation in a Real Time Exposure Assessment Model on Benzene with Calculation of Associated Cancer Risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pavlos A. Kassomenos

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available The objective of the current study was the development of a reliable modeling platform to calculate in real time the personal exposure and the associated health risk for filling station employees evaluating current environmental parameters (traffic, meteorological and amount of fuel traded determined by the appropriate sensor network. A set of Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs was developed to predict benzene exposure pattern for the filling station employees. Furthermore, a Physiology Based Pharmaco-Kinetic (PBPK risk assessment model was developed in order to calculate the lifetime probability distribution of leukemia to the employees, fed by data obtained by the ANN model. Bayesian algorithm was involved in crucial points of both model sub compartments. The application was evaluated in two filling stations (one urban and one rural. Among several algorithms available for the development of the ANN exposure model, Bayesian regularization provided the best results and seemed to be a promising technique for prediction of the exposure pattern of that occupational population group. On assessing the estimated leukemia risk under the scope of providing a distribution curve based on the exposure levels and the different susceptibility of the population, the Bayesian algorithm was a prerequisite of the Monte Carlo approach, which is integrated in the PBPK-based risk model. In conclusion, the modeling system described herein is capable of exploiting the information collected by the environmental sensors in order to estimate in real time the personal exposure and the resulting health risk for employees of gasoline filling stations.

  15. Bayesian algorithm implementation in a real time exposure assessment model on benzene with calculation of associated cancer risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarigiannis, Dimosthenis A; Karakitsios, Spyros P; Gotti, Alberto; Papaloukas, Costas L; Kassomenos, Pavlos A; Pilidis, Georgios A

    2009-01-01

    The objective of the current study was the development of a reliable modeling platform to calculate in real time the personal exposure and the associated health risk for filling station employees evaluating current environmental parameters (traffic, meteorological and amount of fuel traded) determined by the appropriate sensor network. A set of Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) was developed to predict benzene exposure pattern for the filling station employees. Furthermore, a Physiology Based Pharmaco-Kinetic (PBPK) risk assessment model was developed in order to calculate the lifetime probability distribution of leukemia to the employees, fed by data obtained by the ANN model. Bayesian algorithm was involved in crucial points of both model sub compartments. The application was evaluated in two filling stations (one urban and one rural). Among several algorithms available for the development of the ANN exposure model, Bayesian regularization provided the best results and seemed to be a promising technique for prediction of the exposure pattern of that occupational population group. On assessing the estimated leukemia risk under the scope of providing a distribution curve based on the exposure levels and the different susceptibility of the population, the Bayesian algorithm was a prerequisite of the Monte Carlo approach, which is integrated in the PBPK-based risk model. In conclusion, the modeling system described herein is capable of exploiting the information collected by the environmental sensors in order to estimate in real time the personal exposure and the resulting health risk for employees of gasoline filling stations.

  16. Development of a risk-based mine closure cost calculation model

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Du Plessis, A

    2006-06-01

    Full Text Available . This research is important because currently there are a number of mines that do not have sufficient financial provision to close and rehabilitate the mines. The magnitude of the lack of funds could be reduced or eliminated if the closure cost calculation...

  17. Bayesian Algorithm Implementation in a Real Time Exposure Assessment Model on Benzene with Calculation of Associated Cancer Risks

    OpenAIRE

    Sarigiannis, Dimosthenis A.; Karakitsios, Spyros P.; Gotti, Alberto; Papaloukas, Costas L.; Kassomenos, Pavlos A.; Pilidis, Georgios A.

    2009-01-01

    The objective of the current study was the development of a reliable modeling platform to calculate in real time the personal exposure and the associated health risk for filling station employees evaluating current environmental parameters (traffic, meteorological and amount of fuel traded) determined by the appropriate sensor network. A set of Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) was developed to predict benzene exposure pattern for the filling station employees. Furthermore, a Physiology Based...

  18. A new calculation of the carcinogenic risk of obstetric X-raying

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bithell, J.F.

    1988-01-01

    The association between obstetric X-raying and childhood cancer was first identified by the Oxford Survey of Childhood Cancers in 1956. The present re-analysis exploits the case-control matching of the study while incorporating the effects of important risk determinants, notably year of birth, trimester of exposure and number of films exposed. The decline in risk over time is closely mirrored by the estimated decline in dose per film and, by constraining these two relationships to be parallel, time-invariant estimates of the extra risk per mGy are obtained. For example, it is now estimated that irradiating 10 6 foetuses with 1 mGy of X-rays would, in the absence of other causes of death, yield 175 extra cases of cancer and leukaemia in the first 15 years of life. (author)

  19. Calculated Risk Taking in the Treatment of Suicidal Patients: Ethical and Legal Problems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maltsberger, John T.

    1994-01-01

    Discusses discharge of suicidal patients from inpatient care from both economic and ethical perspectives. Suggests that clinicians must exercise prudence in discharging patients unlikely to recover, considering duty to preserve life. Encourages discharge when benefits outweigh risks, with careful preparation of patient and family and meticulous…

  20. Data Mining Activity for Bone Discipline: Calculating a Factor of Risk for Hip Fracture in Long-Duration Astronauts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ellman, R.; Sibonga, J. D.; Bouxsein, M. L.

    2010-01-01

    The factor-of-risk (Phi), defined as the ratio of applied load to bone strength, is a biomechanical approach to hip fracture risk assessment that may be used to identify subjects who are at increased risk for fracture. The purpose of this project was to calculate the factor of risk in long duration astronauts after return from a mission on the International Space Station (ISS), which is typically 6 months in duration. The load applied to the hip was calculated for a sideways fall from standing height based on the individual height and weight of the astronauts. The soft tissue thickness overlying the greater trochanter was measured from the DXA whole body scans and used to estimate attenuation of the impact force provided by soft tissues overlying the hip. Femoral strength was estimated from femoral areal bone mineral density (aBMD) measurements by dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry (DXA), which were performed between 5-32 days of landing. All long-duration NASA astronauts from Expedition 1 to 18 were included in this study, where repeat flyers were treated as separate subjects. Male astronauts (n=20) had a significantly higher factor of risk for hip fracture Phi than females (n=5), with preflight values of 0.83+/-0.11 and 0.36+/-0.07, respectively, but there was no significant difference between preflight and postflight Phi (Figure 1). Femoral aBMD measurements were not found to be significantly different between men and women. Three men and no women exceeded the theoretical fracture threshold of Phi=1 immediately postflight, indicating that they would likely suffer a hip fracture if they were to experience a sideways fall with impact to the greater trochanter. These data suggest that male astronauts may be at greater risk for hip fracture than women following spaceflight, primarily due to relatively less soft tissue thickness and subsequently greater impact force.

  1. Development of free statistical software enabling researchers to calculate confidence levels, clinical significance curves and risk-benefit contours

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shakespeare, T.P.; Mukherjee, R.K.; Gebski, V.J.

    2003-01-01

    Confidence levels, clinical significance curves, and risk-benefit contours are tools improving analysis of clinical studies and minimizing misinterpretation of published results, however no software has been available for their calculation. The objective was to develop software to help clinicians utilize these tools. Excel 2000 spreadsheets were designed using only built-in functions, without macros. The workbook was protected and encrypted so that users can modify only input cells. The workbook has 4 spreadsheets for use in studies comparing two patient groups. Sheet 1 comprises instructions and graphic examples for use. Sheet 2 allows the user to input the main study results (e.g. survival rates) into a 2-by-2 table. Confidence intervals (95%), p-value and the confidence level for Treatment A being better than Treatment B are automatically generated. An additional input cell allows the user to determine the confidence associated with a specified level of benefit. For example if the user wishes to know the confidence that Treatment A is at least 10% better than B, 10% is entered. Sheet 2 automatically displays clinical significance curves, graphically illustrating confidence levels for all possible benefits of one treatment over the other. Sheet 3 allows input of toxicity data, and calculates the confidence that one treatment is more toxic than the other. It also determines the confidence that the relative toxicity of the most effective arm does not exceed user-defined tolerability. Sheet 4 automatically calculates risk-benefit contours, displaying the confidence associated with a specified scenario of minimum benefit and maximum risk of one treatment arm over the other. The spreadsheet is freely downloadable at www.ontumor.com/professional/statistics.htm A simple, self-explanatory, freely available spreadsheet calculator was developed using Excel 2000. The incorporated decision-making tools can be used for data analysis and improve the reporting of results of any

  2. Calculations of risk: regulation and responsibility for asbestos in social housing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waldman, Linda; Williams, Heather

    2013-01-01

    This paper examines questions of risk, regulation, and responsibility in relation to asbestos lodged in UK social housing. Despite extensive health and safety legislation protecting against industrial exposure, very little regulatory attention is given to asbestos present in domestic homes. The paper argues that this lack of regulatory oversight, combined with the informal, contractual, and small-scale work undertaken in domestic homes weakens the basic premise of occupational health and safety, namely that rational decision-making, technical measures, and individual safety behavior lead concerned parties (workers, employers, and others) to minimize risk and exposure. The paper focuses on UK council or social housing, examining how local housing authorities - as landlords - have a duty to provide housing, to protect and to care for residents, but points out that these obligations do not extend to health and safety legislation in relation to DIY undertaken by residents. At the same time, only conventional occupational health and safety, based on rationality, identification, containment, and protective measures, cover itinerant workmen entering these homes. Focusing on asbestos and the way things work in reality, this paper thus explores the degree to which official health and safety regulation can safeguard maintenance and other workers in council homes. It simultaneously examines how councils advise and protect tenants as they occupy and shape their homes. In so doing, this paper challenges the notion of risk as an objective, scientific, and effective measure. In contrast, it demonstrates the ways in which occupational risk - and the choice of appropriate response - is more likely situational and determined by wide-ranging and often contradictory factors.

  3. Risk calculations for energy conservation technologies: the likelihood of realizing design-phase expectations in new construction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Greden, Lara; Vaidya, Prasad; Baker, Chris; Eijadi, David; McDougall, Tom [The Weidt Group (United States)

    2007-07-01

    The risk that a technology will not be implemented or operated as designed is a significant barrier that impedes owners from adopting new energy-conserving building technologies. This results in a feedback loop that encourages decision makers to minimize risk by sticking with the status quo, regardless of the environmental impact. Different technology categories have different levels and types of risks associated with them.This study assigns levels of risk to technologies by tracing a set of envelope systems, lighting designs, lighting controls, HVAC systems, and HVAC controls in a data set of 38 buildings from the design phase through the initial implementation phase. The likelihood that a technology gets implemented and works as expected is assessed, and risk factors for the various technologies are calculated. Explanations for the levels of risk are supported by interviews with third-party reviewers who serve to assist design teams and owners through the construction phase. Results show that daylighting technologies, including dimming daylighting controls, have the highest risk of not being implemented - when otherwise chosen at the selection phase - while roof insulation and lighting designs are most likely to be fully and correctly implemented. Analysis comparing the risk to the energy conservation opportunity indicates the need for prioritization and support during the design and construction phases to realize expected levels of energy conservation. Overall, the interviewees said the most common reasons for lower than expected energy savings are that energy conservation measures were cut-out during value engineering or cut-out due to later decisions that a technology was functionally risky. This research supports large scale investments in energy conservation technologies for buildings through rebate programs, code improvements, and design guides created by large owners. It identifies technologies that need a higher degree of building management effort and

  4. Application of Risk within Net Present Value Calculations for Government Projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grandl, Paul R.; Youngblood, Alisha D.; Componation, Paul; Gholston, Sampson

    2007-01-01

    In January 2004, President Bush announced a new vision for space exploration. This included retirement of the current Space Shuttle fleet by 2010 and the development of new set of launch vehicles. The President's vision did not include significant increases in the NASA budget, so these development programs need to be cost conscious. Current trade study procedures address factors such as performance, reliability, safety, manufacturing, maintainability, operations, and costs. It would be desirable, however, to have increased insight into the cost factors behind each of the proposed system architectures. This paper reports on a set of component trade studies completed on the upper stage engine for the new launch vehicles. Increased insight into architecture costs was developed by including a Net Present Value (NPV) method and applying a set of associated risks to the base parametric cost data. The use of the NPV method along with the risks was found to add fidelity to the trade study and provide additional information to support the selection of a more robust design architecture.

  5. RISKIND: A computer program for calculating radiological consequences and health risks from transportation of spent nuclear fuel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yuan, Y.C.; Chen, S.Y.; LePoire, D.J.

    1993-02-01

    This report presents the technical details of RISIUND, a computer code designed to estimate potential radiological consequences and health risks to individuals and the collective population from exposures associated with the transportation of spent nuclear fuel. RISKIND is a user-friendly, semiinteractive program that can be run on an IBM or equivalent personal computer. The program language is FORTRAN-77. Several models are included in RISKIND that have been tailored to calculate the exposure to individuals under various incident-free and accident conditions. The incidentfree models assess exposures from both gamma and neutron radiation and can account for different cask designs. The accident models include accidental release, atmospheric transport, and the environmental pathways of radionuclides from spent fuels; these models also assess health risks to individuals and the collective population. The models are supported by databases that are specific to spent nuclear fuels and include a radionudide inventory and dose conversion factors

  6. RISKIND: A computer program for calculating radiological consequences and health risks from transportation of spent nuclear fuel

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yuan, Y.C. [Square Y, Orchard Park, NY (United States); Chen, S.Y.; LePoire, D.J. [Argonne National Lab., IL (United States). Environmental Assessment and Information Sciences Div.; Rothman, R. [USDOE Idaho Field Office, Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    1993-02-01

    This report presents the technical details of RISIUND, a computer code designed to estimate potential radiological consequences and health risks to individuals and the collective population from exposures associated with the transportation of spent nuclear fuel. RISKIND is a user-friendly, semiinteractive program that can be run on an IBM or equivalent personal computer. The program language is FORTRAN-77. Several models are included in RISKIND that have been tailored to calculate the exposure to individuals under various incident-free and accident conditions. The incidentfree models assess exposures from both gamma and neutron radiation and can account for different cask designs. The accident models include accidental release, atmospheric transport, and the environmental pathways of radionuclides from spent fuels; these models also assess health risks to individuals and the collective population. The models are supported by databases that are specific to spent nuclear fuels and include a radionudide inventory and dose conversion factors.

  7. RISKIND: A computer program for calculating radiological consequences and health risks from transportation of spent nuclear fuel

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yuan, Y.C. [Square Y Consultants, Orchard Park, NY (US); Chen, S.Y.; Biwer, B.M.; LePoire, D.J. [Argonne National Lab., IL (US)

    1995-11-01

    This report presents the technical details of RISKIND, a computer code designed to estimate potential radiological consequences and health risks to individuals and the collective population from exposures associated with the transportation of spent nuclear fuel. RISKIND is a user-friendly, interactive program that can be run on an IBM or equivalent personal computer under the Windows{trademark} environment. Several models are included in RISKIND that have been tailored to calculate the exposure to individuals under various incident-free and accident conditions. The incident-free models assess exposures from both gamma and neutron radiation and can account for different cask designs. The accident models include accidental release, atmospheric transport, and the environmental pathways of radionuclides from spent fuels; these models also assess health risks to individuals and the collective population. The models are supported by databases that are specific to spent nuclear fuels and include a radionuclide inventory and dose conversion factors. In addition, the flexibility of the models allows them to be used for assessing any accidental release involving radioactive materials. The RISKIND code allows for user-specified accident scenarios as well as receptor locations under various exposure conditions, thereby facilitating the estimation of radiological consequences and health risks for individuals. Median (50% probability) and typical worst-case (less than 5% probability of being exceeded) doses and health consequences from potential accidental releases can be calculated by constructing a cumulative dose/probability distribution curve for a complete matrix of site joint-wind-frequency data. These consequence results, together with the estimated probability of the entire spectrum of potential accidents, form a comprehensive, probabilistic risk assessment of a spent nuclear fuel transportation accident.

  8. RISKIND: A computer program for calculating radiological consequences and health risks from transportation of spent nuclear fuel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yuan, Y.C.; Chen, S.Y.; Biwer, B.M.; LePoire, D.J.

    1995-11-01

    This report presents the technical details of RISKIND, a computer code designed to estimate potential radiological consequences and health risks to individuals and the collective population from exposures associated with the transportation of spent nuclear fuel. RISKIND is a user-friendly, interactive program that can be run on an IBM or equivalent personal computer under the Windows trademark environment. Several models are included in RISKIND that have been tailored to calculate the exposure to individuals under various incident-free and accident conditions. The incident-free models assess exposures from both gamma and neutron radiation and can account for different cask designs. The accident models include accidental release, atmospheric transport, and the environmental pathways of radionuclides from spent fuels; these models also assess health risks to individuals and the collective population. The models are supported by databases that are specific to spent nuclear fuels and include a radionuclide inventory and dose conversion factors. In addition, the flexibility of the models allows them to be used for assessing any accidental release involving radioactive materials. The RISKIND code allows for user-specified accident scenarios as well as receptor locations under various exposure conditions, thereby facilitating the estimation of radiological consequences and health risks for individuals. Median (50% probability) and typical worst-case (less than 5% probability of being exceeded) doses and health consequences from potential accidental releases can be calculated by constructing a cumulative dose/probability distribution curve for a complete matrix of site joint-wind-frequency data. These consequence results, together with the estimated probability of the entire spectrum of potential accidents, form a comprehensive, probabilistic risk assessment of a spent nuclear fuel transportation accident

  9. Transdiagnostic Risk Calculator for the Automatic Detection of Individuals at Risk and the Prediction of Psychosis: Second Replication in an Independent National Health Service Trust.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fusar-Poli, Paolo; Werbeloff, Nomi; Rutigliano, Grazia; Oliver, Dominic; Davies, Cathy; Stahl, Daniel; McGuire, Philip; Osborn, David

    2018-06-12

    The benefits of indicated primary prevention among individuals at Clinical High Risk for Psychosis (CHR-P) are limited by the difficulty in detecting these individuals. To overcome this problem, a transdiagnostic, clinically based, individualized risk calculator has recently been developed and subjected to a first external validation in 2 different catchment areas of the South London and Maudsley (SLaM) NHS Trust. Second external validation of real world, real-time electronic clinical register-based cohort study. All individuals who received a first ICD-10 index diagnosis of nonorganic and nonpsychotic mental disorder within the Camden and Islington (C&I) NHS Trust between 2009 and 2016 were included. The model previously validated included age, gender, ethnicity, age by gender, and ICD-10 index diagnosis to predict the development of any ICD-10 nonorganic psychosis. The model's performance was measured using Harrell's C-index. This study included a total of 13702 patients with an average age of 40 (range 16-99), 52% were female, and most were of white ethnicity (64%). There were no CHR-P or child/adolescent services in the C&I Trust. The C&I and SLaM Trust samples also differed significantly in terms of age, gender, ethnicity, and distribution of index diagnosis. Despite these significant differences, the original model retained an acceptable predictive performance (Harrell's C of 0.73), which is comparable to that of CHR-P tools currently recommended for clinical use. This risk calculator may pragmatically support an improved transdiagnostic detection of at-risk individuals and psychosis prediction even in NHS Trusts in the United Kingdom where CHR-P services are not provided.

  10. Health Risk Assessment for Uranium in Groundwater - An Integrated Case Study Based on Hydrogeological Characterization and Dose Calculation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Franklin, M. R.; Veiga, L. H.; Py, D. A., Jr.; Fernandes, H. M.

    2010-12-01

    The uranium mining and milling facilities of Caetité (URA) is the only active uranium production center in Brazil. Operations take place at a very sensitive semi-arid region in the country where water resources are very scarce. Therefore, any contamination of the existing water bodies may trigger critical consequences to local communities because their sustainability is closely related to the availability of the groundwater resources. Due to the existence of several uranium anomalies in the region, groundwater can present radionuclide concentrations above the world average. The radiological risk associated to the ingestion of these waters have been questioned by members of the local communities, NGO’s and even regulatory bodies that suspected that the observed levels of radionuclide concentrations (specially Unat) could be related to the uranium mining and milling operations. Regardless the origin of these concentrations the fear that undesired health effects were taking place (e.g. increase in cancer incidence) remain despite the fact that no evidence - based on epidemiological studies - is available. This paper intends to present the connections between the local hydrogeology and the radiological characterization of groundwater in the neighboring areas of the uranium production center to understand the implications to the human health risk due to the ingestion of groundwater. The risk assessment was performed, taking into account the radiological and the toxicological risks. Samples from 12 wells have been collected and determinations of Unat, Thnat, 226Ra, 228Ra and 210Pb were performed. The radiation-related risks were estimated for adults and children by the calculation of the annual effective doses. The potential non-carcinogenic effects due to the ingestion of uranium were evaluated by the estimation of the hazard index (HI). Monte Carlo simulations were used to calculate the uncertainty associated with these estimates, i.e. the 95% confidence interval

  11. 'Prostate Cancer Risk Calculator' mobile applications (Apps): a systematic review and scoring using the validated user version of the Mobile Application Rating Scale (uMARS).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adam, Ahmed; Hellig, Julian C; Perera, Marlon; Bolton, Damien; Lawrentschuk, Nathan

    2018-04-01

    The use of mobile phone applications (Apps) has modernised the conventional practice of medicine. The diagnostic ability of the current Apps in prostate specific antigen monitoring, and its diagnostic ability within prostate cancer (PCa) risk calculators have not yet been appraised. We aimed to review, rate and assess the everyday functionality, and utility of all the currently available PCa risk calculator Apps. A systematic search on iTunes, Google Play Store, Blackberry World and Windows Apps Store, was performed on 23/11/2017, using the search term 'prostate cancer risk calculator'. After applying the exclusion criteria, each App was individually assessed and rated using pre-set criteria and grading was performed using the validated uMARS scale. In total, 83 Apps were retrieved. After applying our exclusion criteria, only 9 Apps were relevant, with 2 duplicated, and the remaining 7 were suitable for critical review. Data sizes ranged from 414 kb to 10.1 Mb. The cost of the Apps ranged from South African rand (ZAR) 0.00 to ZAR 29.99. The overall mean category uMARS scores ranged from 2.8/5 to 4.5/5. Apps such as Rotterdam Prostate Cancer Risk Calculator, Coral-Prostate Cancer Nomogram Calculator and CPC Risk Calculator, performed the best. The current PCa risk calculator mobile Apps available may be beneficial in counselling the concerned at risk patient. These Apps have potential to assist both the patient and the urologist alike. The PCa risk calculator App 'predictability' may be further enhanced by the incorporation of newly validated risk factors and predictors for PCa.

  12. DUAL-ENERGY X-RAY ABSORPTIOMETRY AND CALCULATED FRAX RISK SCORES MAY UNDERESTIMATE OSTEOPOROTIC FRACTURE RISK IN VITAMIN D-DEFICIENT VETERANS WITH HIV INFECTION.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stephens, Kelly I; Rubinsztain, Leon; Payan, John; Rentsch, Chris; Rimland, David; Tangpricha, Vin

    2016-04-01

    We evaluated the utility of the World Health Organization (WHO) Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX) in assessing fracture risk in patients with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and vitamin D deficiency. This was a retrospective study of HIV-infected patients with co-existing vitamin D deficiency at the Atlanta Veterans Affairs Medical Center. Bone mineral density (BMD) was assessed by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DEXA), and the 10-year fracture risk was calculated by the WHO FRAX algorithm. Two independent radiologists reviewed lateral chest radiographs for the presence of subclinical vertebral fractures. We identified 232 patients with HIV and vitamin D deficiency. Overall, 15.5% of patients met diagnostic criteria for osteoporosis on DEXA, and 58% had low BMD (T-score between -1 and -2.5). The median risk of any major osteoporotic and hip fracture by FRAX score was 1.45 and 0.10%, respectively. Subclinical vertebral fractures were detected in 46.6% of patients. Compared to those without fractures, those with fractures had similar prevalence of osteoporosis (15.3% versus 15.7%; P>.999), low BMD (53.2% versus 59.3%; P = .419), and similar FRAX hip scores (0.10% versus 0.10%; P = .412). While the FRAX major score was lower in the nonfracture group versus fracture group (1.30% versus 1.60%; P = .025), this was not clinically significant. We found a high prevalence of subclinical vertebral fractures among vitamin D-deficient HIV patients; however, DEXA and FRAX failed to predict those with fractures. Our results suggest that traditional screening tools for fragility fractures may not be applicable to this high-risk patient population.

  13. A validated calculator to estimate risk of cesarean after an induction of labor with an unfavorable cervix.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levine, Lisa D; Downes, Katheryne L; Parry, Samuel; Elovitz, Michal A; Sammel, Mary D; Srinivas, Sindhu K

    2018-02-01

    Induction of labor occurs in >20% of pregnancies, which equates to approximately 1 million women undergoing an induction in the United States annually. Regardless of how common inductions are, our ability to predict induction success is limited. Although multiple risk factors for a failed induction have been identified, risk factors alone are not enough to quantify an actual risk of cesarean for an individual woman undergoing a cesarean. The objective of this study was to derive and validate a prediction model for cesarean after induction with an unfavorable cervix and to create a Web-based calculator to assist in patient counseling. Derivation and validation of a prediction model for cesarean delivery after induction was performed as part of a planned secondary analysis of a large randomized trial. A predictive model for cesarean delivery was derived using multivariable logistic regression from a large randomized trial on induction methods (n = 491) that took place from 2013 through 2015 at an academic institution. Full-term (≥37 weeks) women carrying a singleton gestation with intact membranes and an unfavorable cervix (Bishop score ≤6 and dilation ≤2 cm) undergoing an induction were included in this trial. Both nulliparous and multiparous women were included. Women with a prior cesarean were excluded. Refinement of the prediction model was performed using an observational cohort of women from the same institution who underwent an induction (n = 364) during the trial period. An external validation was performed utilizing a publicly available database (Consortium for Safe Labor) that includes information for >200,000 deliveries from 19 hospitals across the United States from 2002 through 2008. After applying the same inclusion and exclusion criteria utilized in the derivation cohort, a total of 8466 women remained for analysis. The discriminative power of each model was assessed using a bootstrap, bias-corrected area under the curve. The cesarean delivery

  14. Coefficients calculations of conversion of cancer risk for occupational exposure using Monte Carlo simulations in cardiac procedures of interventionist radiology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Santos, William S.; Neves, Lucio P.; Perini, Ana P.; Caldas, Linda V.E.; Maia, Ana F.

    2014-01-01

    Cardiac procedures are among the most common procedures in interventional radiology (IR), and can lead to high medical and occupational exposures, as in most cases are procedures complex and long lasting. In this work, conversion coefficients (CC) for the risk of cancer, normalized by kerma area product (KAP) to the patient, cardiologist and nurse were calculated using Monte Carlo simulation. The patient and the cardiologist were represented by anthropomorphic simulators MESH, and the nurse by anthropomorphic phantom FASH. Simulators were incorporated into the code of Monte Carlo MCNPX. Two scenarios were created: in the first (1), lead curtain and protective equipment suspended were not included, and in the second (2) these devices were inserted. The radiographic parameters employed in Monte Carlo simulations were: tube voltage of 60 kVp and 120 kVp; filtration of the beam and 3,5 mmAl beam area of 10 x 10 cm 2 . The average values of CCs to eight projections (in 10 -4 / Gy.cm 2 were 1,2 for the patient, 2,6E-03 (scenario 1) and 4,9E-04 (scenario 2) for cardiologist and 5,2E-04 (scenario 1) and 4,0E-04 (Scenario 2) to the nurse. The results show a significant reduction in CCs for professionals, when the lead curtain and protective equipment suspended are employed. The evaluation method used in this work can provide important information on the risk of cancer patient and professional, and thus improve the protection of workers in cardiac procedures of RI

  15. Concurrent chart review provides more accurate documentation and increased calculated case mix index, severity of illness, and risk of mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frazee, Richard C; Matejicka, Anthony V; Abernathy, Stephen W; Davis, Matthew; Isbell, Travis S; Regner, Justin L; Smith, Randall W; Jupiter, Daniel C; Papaconstantinou, Harry T

    2015-04-01

    Case mix index (CMI) is calculated to determine the relative value assigned to a Diagnosis-Related Group. Accurate documentation of patient complications and comorbidities and major complications and comorbidities changes CMI and can affect hospital reimbursement and future pay for performance metrics. Starting in 2010, a physician panel concurrently reviewed the documentation of the trauma/acute care surgeons. Clarifications of the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services term-specific documentation were made by the panel, and the surgeon could incorporate or decline the clinical queries. A retrospective review of trauma/acute care inpatients was performed. The mean severity of illness, risk of mortality, and CMI from 2009 were compared with the 3 subsequent years. Mean length of stay and mean Injury Severity Score by year were listed as measures of patient acuity. Statistical analysis was performed using ANOVA and t-test, with p reimbursement and more accurately stratify outcomes measures for care providers. Copyright © 2015 American College of Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. SU-F-T-452: Influence of Dose Calculation Algorithm and Heterogeneity Correction On Risk Categorization of Patients with Cardiac Implanted Electronic Devices Undergoing Radiotherapy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Iwai, P; Lins, L Nadler [AC Camargo Cancer Center, Sao Paulo (Brazil)

    2016-06-15

    Purpose: There is a lack of studies with significant cohort data about patients using pacemaker (PM), implanted cardioverter defibrillator (ICD) or cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT) device undergoing radiotherapy. There is no literature comparing the cumulative doses delivered to those cardiac implanted electronic devices (CIED) calculated by different algorithms neither studies comparing doses with heterogeneity correction or not. The aim of this study was to evaluate the influence of the algorithms Pencil Beam Convolution (PBC), Analytical Anisotropic Algorithm (AAA) and Acuros XB (AXB) as well as heterogeneity correction on risk categorization of patients. Methods: A retrospective analysis of 19 3DCRT or IMRT plans of 17 patients was conducted, calculating the dose delivered to CIED using three different calculation algorithms. Doses were evaluated with and without heterogeneity correction for comparison. Risk categorization of the patients was based on their CIED dependency and cumulative dose in the devices. Results: Total estimated doses at CIED calculated by AAA or AXB were higher than those calculated by PBC in 56% of the cases. In average, the doses at CIED calculated by AAA and AXB were higher than those calculated by PBC (29% and 4% higher, respectively). The maximum difference of doses calculated by each algorithm was about 1 Gy, either using heterogeneity correction or not. Values of maximum dose calculated with heterogeneity correction showed that dose at CIED was at least equal or higher in 84% of the cases with PBC, 77% with AAA and 67% with AXB than dose obtained with no heterogeneity correction. Conclusion: The dose calculation algorithm and heterogeneity correction did not change the risk categorization. Since higher estimated doses delivered to CIED do not compromise treatment precautions to be taken, it’s recommend that the most sophisticated algorithm available should be used to predict dose at the CIED using heterogeneity correction.

  17. SU-F-T-452: Influence of Dose Calculation Algorithm and Heterogeneity Correction On Risk Categorization of Patients with Cardiac Implanted Electronic Devices Undergoing Radiotherapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Iwai, P; Lins, L Nadler

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: There is a lack of studies with significant cohort data about patients using pacemaker (PM), implanted cardioverter defibrillator (ICD) or cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT) device undergoing radiotherapy. There is no literature comparing the cumulative doses delivered to those cardiac implanted electronic devices (CIED) calculated by different algorithms neither studies comparing doses with heterogeneity correction or not. The aim of this study was to evaluate the influence of the algorithms Pencil Beam Convolution (PBC), Analytical Anisotropic Algorithm (AAA) and Acuros XB (AXB) as well as heterogeneity correction on risk categorization of patients. Methods: A retrospective analysis of 19 3DCRT or IMRT plans of 17 patients was conducted, calculating the dose delivered to CIED using three different calculation algorithms. Doses were evaluated with and without heterogeneity correction for comparison. Risk categorization of the patients was based on their CIED dependency and cumulative dose in the devices. Results: Total estimated doses at CIED calculated by AAA or AXB were higher than those calculated by PBC in 56% of the cases. In average, the doses at CIED calculated by AAA and AXB were higher than those calculated by PBC (29% and 4% higher, respectively). The maximum difference of doses calculated by each algorithm was about 1 Gy, either using heterogeneity correction or not. Values of maximum dose calculated with heterogeneity correction showed that dose at CIED was at least equal or higher in 84% of the cases with PBC, 77% with AAA and 67% with AXB than dose obtained with no heterogeneity correction. Conclusion: The dose calculation algorithm and heterogeneity correction did not change the risk categorization. Since higher estimated doses delivered to CIED do not compromise treatment precautions to be taken, it’s recommend that the most sophisticated algorithm available should be used to predict dose at the CIED using heterogeneity correction.

  18. First-trimester risk calculation for trisomy 13, 18, and 21: comparison of the screening efficiency between 2 locally developed programs and commercial software

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Steen; Momsen, Günther; Sundberg, Karin

    2011-01-01

    Reliable individual risk calculation for trisomy (T) 13, 18, and 21 in first-trimester screening depends on good estimates of the medians for fetal nuchal translucency thickness (NT), free β-subunit of human chorionic gonadotropin (hCGβ), and pregnancy-associated plasma protein-A (PAPP-A) in mate......Reliable individual risk calculation for trisomy (T) 13, 18, and 21 in first-trimester screening depends on good estimates of the medians for fetal nuchal translucency thickness (NT), free β-subunit of human chorionic gonadotropin (hCGβ), and pregnancy-associated plasma protein-A (PAPP...

  19. Risk assessment calculations using MEPAS, an accepted screening methodology, and an uncertainty analysis for the reranking of Waste Area Groupings at Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shevenell, L.; Hoffman, F.O.; MacIntosh, D.

    1992-03-01

    The Waste Area Groupings (WAGs) at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) were reranked with respect to on- and off-site human health risks using two different methods. Risks associated with selected contaminants from each WAG for occupants of WAG 2 or an off-site area were calculated using a modified formulation of the Multimedia Environmental Pollutant Assessment System (MEPAS) and a method suitable for screening, referred to as the ORNL/ESD method (the method developed by the Environmental Sciences Division at ORNL) in this report. Each method resulted in a different ranking of the WAGs. The rankings from the two methods are compared in this report. All risk assessment calculations, except the original MEPAS calculations, indicated that WAGs 1; 2, 6, 7 (WAGs 2, 6 and 7 as one combined WAG); and 4 pose the greatest potential threat to human health. However, the overall rankings of the WAGs using constant parameter values in the different methods were inconclusive because uncertainty in parameter values can change the calculated risk associated with particular pathways, and hence, the final rankings. Uncertainty analysis using uncertainties about all model parameters were used to reduce biases associated with parameter selection and to more reliably rank waste sites according to potential risks associated with site contaminants. Uncertainty analysis indicates that the WAGs should be considered for further investigation, or remediation, in the following order: (1) WAG 1; (2) WAGs 2, 6, and 7 (combined); and 4; (3) WAGs 3, 5, and 9; and, (4) WAG 8

  20. Validation of an online risk calculator for the prediction of anastomotic leak after colon cancer surgery and preliminary exploration of artificial intelligence-based analytics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sammour, T; Cohen, L; Karunatillake, A I; Lewis, M; Lawrence, M J; Hunter, A; Moore, J W; Thomas, M L

    2017-11-01

    Recently published data support the use of a web-based risk calculator ( www.anastomoticleak.com ) for the prediction of anastomotic leak after colectomy. The aim of this study was to externally validate this calculator on a larger dataset. Consecutive adult patients undergoing elective or emergency colectomy for colon cancer at a single institution over a 9-year period were identified using the Binational Colorectal Cancer Audit database. Patients with a rectosigmoid cancer, an R2 resection, or a diverting ostomy were excluded. The primary outcome was anastomotic leak within 90 days as defined by previously published criteria. Area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) was derived and compared with that of the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program ® (ACS NSQIP) calculator and the colon leakage score (CLS) calculator for left colectomy. Commercially available artificial intelligence-based analytics software was used to further interrogate the prediction algorithm. A total of 626 patients were identified. Four hundred and fifty-six patients met the inclusion criteria, and 402 had complete data available for all the calculator variables (126 had a left colectomy). Laparoscopic surgery was performed in 39.6% and emergency surgery in 14.7%. The anastomotic leak rate was 7.2%, with 31.0% requiring reoperation. The anastomoticleak.com calculator was significantly predictive of leak and performed better than the ACS NSQIP calculator (AUROC 0.73 vs 0.58) and the CLS calculator (AUROC 0.96 vs 0.80) for left colectomy. Artificial intelligence-predictive analysis supported these findings and identified an improved prediction model. The anastomotic leak risk calculator is significantly predictive of anastomotic leak after colon cancer resection. Wider investigation of artificial intelligence-based analytics for risk prediction is warranted.

  1. The Work Sample Verification and the Calculation of the Statistical, Mathematical and Economical Probability for the Risks of the Direct Procurement

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lazăr Cristiana Daniela

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Each organization has among its multiple secondary endpoints subordinated to a centralobjective that one of avoiding the contingencies. The direct procurement is carried out on themarket in SEAP (Electronic System of Public Procurement, and a performing management in apublic institution has as sub-base and risk management. The risks may be investigated byeconometric simulation, which is calculated by the use of calculus of probability and the sample fordetermining the relevance of these probabilities.

  2. Individualized correction for maternal weight in calculating the risk of chromosomal abnormalities with first-trimester screening data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merz, E; Thode, C; Eiben, B; Faber, R; Hackelöer, B J; Huesgen, G; Pruggmaier, M; Wellek, S

    2011-02-01

    construction of new reference bands for the corrected biochemical values as the basis for calculating the degree of extremeness (DOE) measures to replace the more traditional MOMs. In the final and most crucial step, stratified FPRs were computed and compared over a set of intervals partitioning the whole range of maternal weight into 18 classes. For the posterior risks of both trisomy 21 and 13 / 18 computed from the weight-corrected database, the use of a cutoff value of 1:150 turned out to be an appropriate choice. For T 21, the overall FPR obtained through comparing the individual risks with this cutoff was found to be 3.51 %. The corresponding proportion of ascertained cases of trisomy 21 detected by means of the new algorithm was 86.2 %. For the trisomy 13 / 18 group, the analogous results were a FPR of 2.07 % and a detection rate (DTR) of 83.0 %, respectively. A comparison between the FPRs obtained for the 18 intervals into which the range of maternal weight had been partitioned, showed the deviation of the strata-specific from the overall FPR to be fairly small: for T 21, the FPR ranged from 2.72 to 4.86 %, and the maximum was found in the group of 87.5 - 95.0 kg. For women with a weight of more than 120 kg, the FPR was only slightly above the FPR for the total sample (3.69 as compared to 3.51 %). Similar results were obtained for the discrimination rule constructed for diagnosing T 13 / 18: here, the minimum FPR (1.17 %) was found for patients weighing more than 120 kg, whereas the maximum (2.66 %) occurred in the interval 75.0 - 77.5 kg. In this study we demonstrated that the new algorithm developed by the FMF Germany to estimate risks for fetal trisomies 21 and 13 / 18 combines very good misclassification rates with a far-reaching stability of the false-positive rate against even extreme deviations from the average maternal weight. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

  3. Prognostic Value of Stress Echocardiography in Patients With Low-Intermediate or High Short-Term (10 Years) Versus Low (Risk of Cardiovascular Disease According to the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association 2013 Cardiovascular Risk Calculator.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yao, Siu-Sun; Supariwala, Azhar; Yao, Amanda; Dukkipati, Sai Sreenija; Wyne, Jamshad; Chaudhry, Farooq A

    2015-09-01

    This study evaluates the prognostic value of stress echocardiography (Secho) in short-term (10 years) and lifetime atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk-defined groups according to the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association 2013 cardiovascular risk calculator. The ideal risk assessment and management of patients with low-to-intermediate or high short-term versus low (risk is unclear. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the prognostic value of Secho in short-term and lifetime CV risk-defined groups. We evaluated 4,566 patients (60 ± 13 years; 46% men) who underwent Secho (41% treadmill and 59% dobutamine) with low-intermediate short-term (risk divided into low (risk and third group with high short-term risk (≥20%, n = 3,537). Follow-up (3.2 ± 1.5 years) for nonfatal myocardial infarction (n = 102) and cardiac death (n = 140) were obtained. By univariate analysis, age (p risk and also in those with high short-term CV risk group (3.5% vs 1.0% per year, p risk assessment in patients with low-intermediate or high short-term versus low or high lifetime cardiovascular risk. Event rate with normal Secho is low (≤1% per year) but higher in patients with high short-term CV risk by the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association 2013 cardiovascular risk calculator. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. 17 CFR 240.17i-7 - Calculations of allowable capital and risk allowances or alternative capital assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ...) Allowance for market risk. The supervised investment bank holding company must compute an allowance for market risk on a consolidated basis for all proprietary positions, including debt instruments, equity instruments, commodity instruments, foreign exchange contracts, and derivative contracts as the aggregate of...

  5. Insecticide contamination of the River Meuse in August 2007. Risk Assessment on the basis of MAM calculations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Penailillo, B.R.; Morales, Y.; Meijers, E.

    2008-01-01

    On 31 July the company Chimac-Agriphar from Ougrée discharged 64 kilo chlorpyrifos and 12 kilo cypermethrin into the River Meuse, imposing risks to recreation (swimming and fishing), ecology (about 20 to 25 ton fish were killed) and drinking water production. In this study a retrospective risk

  6. Development and pilot feasibility study of a health information technology tool to calculate mortality risk for patients with asymptomatic carotid stenosis: the Carotid Risk Assessment Tool (CARAT)

    OpenAIRE

    Faerber, Adrienne E; Horvath, Rebecca; Stillman, Carey; O?Connell, Melissa L; Hamilton, Amy L; Newhall, Karina A; Likosky, Donald S; Goodney, Philip P

    2015-01-01

    Background Patients with no history of stroke but with stenosis of the carotid arteries can reduce the risk of future stroke with surgery or stenting. At present, a physicians? ability to recommend optimal treatments based on an individual?s risk profile requires estimating the likelihood that a patient will have a poor peri-operative outcomes and the likelihood that the patient will survive long enough to gain benefit from the procedure. We describe the development of the CArotid Risk Assess...

  7. Observational study to calculate addictive risk to opioids: a validation study of a predictive algorithm to evaluate opioid use disorder

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brenton A

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Ashley Brenton,1 Steven Richeimer,2,3 Maneesh Sharma,4 Chee Lee,1 Svetlana Kantorovich,1 John Blanchard,1 Brian Meshkin1 1Proove Biosciences, Irvine, CA, 2Keck school of Medicine, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, 3Departments of Anesthesiology and Psychiatry, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, 4Interventional Pain Institute, Baltimore, MD, USA Background: Opioid abuse in chronic pain patients is a major public health issue, with rapidly increasing addiction rates and deaths from unintentional overdose more than quadrupling since 1999. Purpose: This study seeks to determine the predictability of aberrant behavior to opioids using a comprehensive scoring algorithm incorporating phenotypic risk factors and neuroscience-associated single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs. Patients and methods: The Proove Opioid Risk (POR algorithm determines the predictability of aberrant behavior to opioids using a comprehensive scoring algorithm incorporating phenotypic risk factors and neuroscience-associated SNPs. In a validation study with 258 subjects with diagnosed opioid use disorder (OUD and 650 controls who reported using opioids, the POR successfully categorized patients at high and moderate risks of opioid misuse or abuse with 95.7% sensitivity. Regardless of changes in the prevalence of opioid misuse or abuse, the sensitivity of POR remained >95%. Conclusion: The POR correctly stratifies patients into low-, moderate-, and high-risk categories to appropriately identify patients at need for additional guidance, monitoring, or treatment changes. Keywords: opioid use disorder, addiction, personalized medicine, pharmacogenetics, genetic testing, predictive algorithm

  8. Clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis in men who have sex with men: risk calculators for real-world decision-making.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anders Chen

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Oral pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP can be clinically effective and cost-effective for HIV prevention in high-risk men who have sex with men (MSM. However, individual patients have different risk profiles, real-world populations vary, and no practical tools exist to guide clinical decisions or public health strategies. We introduce a practical model of HIV acquisition, including both a personalized risk calculator for clinical management and a cost-effectiveness calculator for population-level decisions. METHODS: We developed a decision-analytic model of PrEP for MSM. The primary clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness outcomes were the number needed to treat (NNT to prevent one HIV infection, and the cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY gained. We characterized patients according to risk factors including PrEP adherence, condom use, sexual frequency, background HIV prevalence and antiretroviral therapy use. RESULTS: With standard PrEP adherence and national epidemiologic parameters, the estimated NNT was 64 (95% uncertainty range: 26, 176 at a cost of $160,000 (cost saving, $740,000 per QALY--comparable to other published models. With high (35% HIV prevalence, the NNT was 35 (21, 57, and cost per QALY was $27,000 (cost saving, $160,000, and with high PrEP adherence, the NNT was 30 (14, 69, and cost per QALY was $3,000 (cost saving, $200,000. In contrast, for monogamous, serodiscordant relationships with partner antiretroviral therapy use, the NNT was 90 (39, 157 and cost per QALY was $280,000 ($14,000, $670,000. CONCLUSIONS: PrEP results vary widely across individuals and populations. Risk calculators may aid in patient education, clinical decision-making, and cost-effectiveness evaluation.

  9. Predictive Power of the NSQIP Risk Calculator for Early Post-Operative Outcomes After Whipple: Experience from a Regional Center in Northern Ontario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Henry Y; Kohtakangas, Erica L; Asai, Kengo; Shum, Jeffrey B

    2017-05-02

    NSQIP Risk Calculator was developed to allow surgeons to inform their patients about their individual risks for surgery. Its ability to predict complication rates and length of stay (LOS) has made it an appealing tool for both patients and surgeons. However, the NSQIP Risk Calculator has been criticized for its generality and lack of detail towards surgical subspecialties, including the hepatopancreaticobiliary (HPB) surgery. We wish to determine whether the NSQIP Risk Calculator is predictive of post-operative complications and LOS with respect to Whipple's resections for our patient population. As well, we wish to identify strategies to optimize early surgical outcomes in patients with pancreatic cancer. We conducted a retrospective review of patients who underwent elective Whipple's procedure for benign or malignant pancreatic head lesions at Health Sciences North (Sudbury, Ontario), a tertiary care center, from February 2014 to August 2016. Comparisons of LOS and post-operative complications between NSQIP-predicted and actual ones were carried out. NSQIP-predicted complications rates were obtained using the NSQIP Risk Calculator through pre-defined preoperative risk factors. Clinical outcomes examined, at 30 days post-operation, included pneumonia, cardiac events, surgical site infection (SSI), urinary tract infection (UTI), venous thromboembolism (VTE), renal failure, readmission, and reoperation for procedural complications. As well, mortality, disposition to nursing or rehabilitation facilities, and LOS were assessed. A total of 40 patients underwent Whipple's procedure at our center from February 2014 to August 2016. The average age was 68 (50-85), and there were 22 males and 18 females. The majority of patients had independent baseline functional status (39/40) with minimal pre-operative comorbidities. The overall post-operative morbidity was 47.5% (19/40). The rate of serious complication was 17.5% with four Clavien grade II, two grade III, and one grade

  10. Insight into "Calculated Risk": An Application to the Prioritization of Emerging Infectious Diseases for Blood Transfusion Safety.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neslo, R E J; Oei, W; Janssen, M P

    2017-09-01

    Increasing identification of transmissions of emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) by blood transfusion raised the question which of these EIDs poses the highest risk to blood safety. For a number of the EIDs that are perceived to be a threat to blood safety, evidence on actual disease or transmission characteristics is lacking, which might render measures against such EIDs disputable. On the other hand, the fact that we call them "emerging" implies almost by definition that we are uncertain about at least some of their characteristics. So what is the relative importance of various disease and transmission characteristics, and how are these influenced by the degree of uncertainty associated with their actual values? We identified the likelihood of transmission by blood transfusion, the presence of an asymptomatic phase of infection, prevalence of infection, and the disease impact as the main characteristics of the perceived risk of disease transmission by blood transfusion. A group of experts in the field of infectious diseases and blood transfusion ranked sets of (hypothetical) diseases with varying degrees of uncertainty associated with their disease characteristics, and used probabilistic inversion to obtain probability distributions for the weight of each of these risk characteristics. These distribution weights can be used to rank both existing and newly emerging infectious diseases with (partially) known characteristics. Analyses show that in case there is a lack of data concerning disease characteristics, it is the uncertainty concerning the asymptomatic phase and the disease impact that are the most important drivers of the perceived risk. On the other hand, if disease characteristics are well established, it is the prevalence of infection and the transmissibility of the disease by blood transfusion that will drive the perceived risk. The risk prioritization model derived provides an easy to obtain and rational expert assessment of the relative importance of

  11. Reliability Calculations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petersen, Kurt Erling

    1986-01-01

    Risk and reliability analysis is increasingly being used in evaluations of plant safety and plant reliability. The analysis can be performed either during the design process or during the operation time, with the purpose to improve the safety or the reliability. Due to plant complexity and safety...... and availability requirements, sophisticated tools, which are flexible and efficient, are needed. Such tools have been developed in the last 20 years and they have to be continuously refined to meet the growing requirements. Two different areas of application were analysed. In structural reliability probabilistic...... approaches have been introduced in some cases for the calculation of the reliability of structures or components. A new computer program has been developed based upon numerical integration in several variables. In systems reliability Monte Carlo simulation programs are used especially in analysis of very...

  12. Reliability calculations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Petersen, K.E.

    1986-03-01

    Risk and reliability analysis is increasingly being used in evaluations of plant safety and plant reliability. The analysis can be performed either during the design process or during the operation time, with the purpose to improve the safety or the reliability. Due to plant complexity and safety and availability requirements, sophisticated tools, which are flexible and efficient, are needed. Such tools have been developed in the last 20 years and they have to be continuously refined to meet the growing requirements. Two different areas of application were analysed. In structural reliability probabilistic approaches have been introduced in some cases for the calculation of the reliability of structures or components. A new computer program has been developed based upon numerical integration in several variables. In systems reliability Monte Carlo simulation programs are used especially in analysis of very complex systems. In order to increase the applicability of the programs variance reduction techniques can be applied to speed up the calculation process. Variance reduction techniques have been studied and procedures for implementation of importance sampling are suggested. (author)

  13. Calculation of risk-based detection limits for radionuclides in the liquid effluents from Korean nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cheong, Jae Hak

    2017-01-01

    In order to review if present detection limits of radionuclides in liquid effluent from nuclear power plants are effective enough to warrant compliance with regulatory discharge limits, a risk-based approach is developed to derive a new detection limit for each radionuclide based on radiological criteria. Equations and adjustment factors are also proposed to discriminate the validity of the detection limits for multiple radionuclides in the liquid effluent with or without consideration of the nuclide composition. From case studies to three nuclear power plants in Korea with actual operation data from 2006 to 2015, the present detection limits have turned out to be effective for Hanul Unit 1 but may not be sensitive enough for Kori Unit 1 (8 out of 14 radionuclides) and Wolsong Unit 1 (9 out of 42 radionuclides). However, it is shown that the present detection limits for the latter two nuclear power plants can be justified, if credit is given to the radionuclide composition. Otherwise, consideration should be given to adjustment of the present detection limits. The risk-based approach of this study can be used to determine the validity of established detection limits of a specific nuclear power plant. (author)

  14. Hand-calculation technique for the evaluation of public risk from a severe accident at a nuclear power plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Linn, M.A.; Schmoyer, R.E.

    1993-01-01

    The Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) is in the process of promulgating a proposed rule 10 CFR Part 54, ''Requirements for Renewal of Operating Licensees for Nuclear Power Plants,'' which will allow licenses to renew the operating licenses on their nuclear power plants for an additional 20 years beyond the original 40-year limit. A Generic Environmental Impact Statement (GEIS) prepared by the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) in conjunction with and for the Nuclear Regulatory Commission to assess the environmental issues associated with this proposed rule. The evaluation of the environmental impact from postulated severe accidents was included in the GEIS. During this evaluation of postulated severe accidents, a method was developed to estimate the public health consequences of atmospheric releases from severe accidents that is much simpler to use than existing consequence computer codes. From the results of this work, it is concluded that the simplified methodology does provide reasonable and conservative estimates of public risk from atmospheric releases from severe accidents

  15. Genetically elevated non-fasting triglycerides and calculated remnant cholesterol as causal risk factors for myocardial infarction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, Anders Berg; Frikke-Schmidt, Ruth; West, Anders Sode

    2012-01-01

    AimsElevated non-fasting triglycerides mark elevated levels of remnant cholesterol. Using a Mendelian randomization approach, we tested whether genetically increased remnant cholesterol in hypertriglyceridaemia due to genetic variation in the apolipoprotein A5 gene (APOA5) associates with an incr......AimsElevated non-fasting triglycerides mark elevated levels of remnant cholesterol. Using a Mendelian randomization approach, we tested whether genetically increased remnant cholesterol in hypertriglyceridaemia due to genetic variation in the apolipoprotein A5 gene (APOA5) associates...... with an increased risk of myocardial infarction (MI).Methods and resultsWe resequenced the core promoter and coding regions of APOA5 in individuals with the lowest 1% (n = 95) and highest 2% (n = 190) triglyceride levels in the Copenhagen City Heart Study (CCHS, n = 10 391). Genetic variants which differed...... in frequency between the two extreme triglyceride groups (c.-1131T > C, S19W, and c.*31C > T; P-value: 0.06 to...

  16. Magnetic Resonance Imaging Provides Added Value to the Prostate Cancer Prevention Trial Risk Calculator for Patients With Estimated Risk of High-grade Prostate Cancer Less Than or Equal to 10.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Eric H; Weaver, John K; Shetty, Anup S; Vetter, Joel M; Andriole, Gerald L; Strope, Seth A

    2017-04-01

    To determine the added value of prostate magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) to the Prostate Cancer Prevention Trial risk calculator. Between January 2012 and December 2015, 339 patients underwent prostate MRI prior to biopsy at our institution. MRI was considered positive if there was at least 1 Prostate Imaging Reporting and Data System 4 or 5 MRI suspicious region. Logistic regression was used to develop 2 models: biopsy outcome as a function of the (1) Prostate Cancer Prevention Trial risk calculator alone and (2) combined with MRI findings. When including all patients, the Prostate Cancer Prevention Trial with and without MRI models performed similarly (area under the curve [AUC] = 0.74 and 0.78, P = .06). When restricting the cohort to patients with estimated risk of high-grade (Gleason ≥7) prostate cancer ≤10%, the model with MRI outperformed the Prostate Cancer Prevention Trial alone model (AUC = 0.69 and 0.60, P = .01). Within this cohort of patients, there was no significant difference in discrimination between models for those with previous negative biopsy (AUC = 0.61 vs 0.63, P = .76), whereas there was a significant improvement in discrimination with the MRI model for biopsy-naïve patients (AUC = 0.72 vs 0.60, P = .01). The use of prostate MRI in addition to the Prostate Cancer Prevention Trial risk calculator provides a significant improvement in clinical risk discrimination for patients with estimated risk of high-grade (Gleason ≥7) prostate cancer ≤10%. Prebiopsy prostate MRI should be strongly considered for these patients. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. Random and systematic errors in case–control studies calculating the injury risk of driving under the influence of psychoactive substances

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Houwing, Sjoerd; Hagenzieker, Marjan; Mathijssen, René P.M.

    2013-01-01

    Between 2006 and 2010, six population based case-control studies were conducted as part of the European research-project DRUID (DRiving Under the Influence of Drugs, alcohol and medicines). The aim of these case-control studies was to calculate odds ratios indicating the relative risk of serious....... The list of indicators that was identified in this study is useful both as guidance for systematic reviews and meta-analyses and for future epidemiological studies in the field of driving under the influence to minimize sources of errors already at the start of the study. © 2013 Published by Elsevier Ltd....

  18. Reduction of radiation risks in patients undergoing some X-ray examinations by using optimal projections: A Monte Carlo program-based mathematical calculation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A Chaparian

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The objectives of this paper were calculation and comparison of the effective doses, the risks of exposure-induced cancer, and dose reduction in the gonads for male and female patients in different projections of some X-ray examinations. Radiographies of lumbar spine [in the eight projections of anteroposterior (AP, posteroanterior (PA, right lateral (RLAT, left lateral (LLAT, right anterior-posterior oblique (RAO, left anterior-posterior oblique (LAO, right posterior-anterior oblique (RPO, and left posterior-anterior oblique (LPO], abdomen (in the two projections of AP and PA, and pelvis (in the two projections of AP and PA were investigated. A solid-state dosimeter was used for the measuring of the entrance skin exposure. A Monte Carlo program was used for calculation of effective doses, the risks of radiation-induced cancer, and doses to the gonads related to the different projections. Results of this study showed that PA projection of abdomen, lumbar spine, and pelvis radiographies caused 50%-57% lower effective doses than AP projection and 50%-60% reduction in radiation risks. Also use of LAO projection of lumbar spine X-ray examination caused 53% lower effective dose than RPO projection and 56% and 63% reduction in radiation risk for male and female, respectively, and RAO projection caused 28% lower effective dose than LPO projection and 52% and 39% reduction in radiation risk for males and females, respectively. About dose reduction in the gonads, using of the PA position rather than AP in the radiographies of the abdomen, lumbar spine, and pelvis can result in reduction of the ovaries doses in women, 38%, 31%, and 25%, respectively and reduction of the testicles doses in males, 76%, 86%, and 94%, respectively. Also for oblique projections of lumbar spine X-ray examination, with employment of LAO rather than RPO and also RAO rather than LPO, demonstrated 22% and 13% reductions to the ovaries doses and 66% and 54% reductions in the

  19. Declination Calculator

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Declination is calculated using the current International Geomagnetic Reference Field (IGRF) model. Declination is calculated using the current World Magnetic Model...

  20. Propossal of a model for the calculation of doses and of the risk due to inhalation and ingestion of radionuclides from nuclear facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bertelli Neto, L.

    1980-10-01

    An improvement of existing models for the various body components and simulates the human body metabolic behaviour as a whole, are presented. It takes into account the uptake of material, via nose or mouth, up to its excretion by urine or faeces. It has an aditional choice for calculation, which permits the evaluation of the quantity of material that has settled inside the organism, using the data obtained from the quantitative analysis of the excreta. The simulation of the metabolic process leads to the possibility of dose and detriment estimation as well as the corresponding mortality and genetic risks. Metabolic tests were made for physiological comparison and for the determination of the whole body dose equivalent. Tests were made, using different intake and excretion activities, to verify the validity of the proposed model. (E.G.) [pt

  1. Differences in absorbed doses at risk organs and target tumoral of planning(PTV) in lung treatments using two algorithms of different calculations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Uruena Llinares, A.; Santos Rubio, A.; Luis Simon, F. J.; Sanchez Carmona, G.; Herrador Cordoba, M.

    2006-01-01

    The objective of this paper is to compare, in thirty treatments for lung cancer,the absorbed doses at risk organs and target volumes obtained between the two used algorithms of calculation of our treatment planning system Oncentra Masterplan, that is, Pencil Beams vs Collapsed Cone. For it we use a set of measured indicators (D1 and D99 of tumor volume, V20 of lung, homogeneity index defined as (D5-D95)/D prescribed, and others). Analysing the dta, making a descriptor analysis of the results, and applying the non parametric test of the ranks with sign of Wilcoxon we find that the use of Pencil Beam algorithm underestimates the dose in the zone of the PTV including regions of low density as well as the values of maximum dose in spine cord. So, we conclude that in those treatments in which the spine dose is near the maximum permissible limit or those in which the PTV it includes a zone with pulmonary tissue must be used the Collapse Cone algorithm systematically and in any case an analysis must become to choose between time and precision in the calculation for both algorithms. (Authors)

  2. CONTAIN calculations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scholtyssek, W.

    1995-01-01

    In the first phase of a benchmark comparison, the CONTAIN code was used to calculate an assumed EPR accident 'medium-sized leak in the cold leg', especially for the first two days after initiation of the accident. The results for global characteristics compare well with those of FIPLOC, MELCOR and WAVCO calculations, if the same materials data are used as input. However, significant differences show up for local quantities such as flows through leakages. (orig.)

  3. Burnout calculation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, D.

    1980-01-01

    Reviewed is the effect of heat flux of different system parameters on critical density in order to give an initial view on the value of several parameters. A thorough analysis of different equations is carried out to calculate burnout is steam-water flows in uniformly heated tubes, annular, and rectangular channels and rod bundles. Effect of heat flux density distribution and flux twisting on burnout and storage determination according to burnout are commended [ru

  4. Calculator calculus

    CERN Document Server

    McCarty, George

    1982-01-01

    How THIS BOOK DIFFERS This book is about the calculus. What distinguishes it, however, from other books is that it uses the pocket calculator to illustrate the theory. A computation that requires hours of labor when done by hand with tables is quite inappropriate as an example or exercise in a beginning calculus course. But that same computation can become a delicate illustration of the theory when the student does it in seconds on his calculator. t Furthermore, the student's own personal involvement and easy accomplishment give hi~ reassurance and en­ couragement. The machine is like a microscope, and its magnification is a hundred millionfold. We shall be interested in limits, and no stage of numerical approximation proves anything about the limit. However, the derivative of fex) = 67.SgX, for instance, acquires real meaning when a student first appreciates its values as numbers, as limits of 10 100 1000 t A quick example is 1.1 , 1.01 , 1.001 , •••• Another example is t = 0.1, 0.01, in the functio...

  5. Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cole, Stephen R.; Hudgens, Michael G.; Brookhart, M. Alan; Westreich, Daniel

    2015-01-01

    The epidemiologist primarily studies transitions between states of health and disease. The purpose of the present article is to define a foundational parameter for such studies, namely risk. We begin simply and build to the setting in which there is more than 1 event type (i.e., competing risks or competing events), as well as more than 1 treatment or exposure level of interest. In the presence of competing events, the risks are a set of counterfactual cumulative incidence functions for each treatment. These risks can be depicted visually and summarized numerically. We use an example from the study of human immunodeficiency virus to illustrate concepts. PMID:25660080

  6. Biota Modeling in EPA's Preliminary Remediation Goal and Dose Compliance Concentration Calculators for Use in EPA Superfund Risk Assessment: Explanation of Intake Rate Derivation, Transfer Factor Compilation, and Mass Loading Factor Sources

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Manning, Karessa L. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Dolislager, Fredrick G. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Bellamy, Michael B. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

    2016-11-01

    The Preliminary Remediation Goal (PRG) and Dose Compliance Concentration (DCC) calculators are screening level tools that set forth Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) recommended approaches, based upon currently available information with respect to risk assessment, for response actions at Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA) sites, commonly known as Superfund. The screening levels derived by the PRG and DCC calculators are used to identify isotopes contributing the highest risk and dose as well as establish preliminary remediation goals. Each calculator has a residential gardening scenario and subsistence farmer exposure scenarios that require modeling of the transfer of contaminants from soil and water into various types of biota (crops and animal products). New publications of human intake rates of biota; farm animal intakes of water, soil, and fodder; and soil to plant interactions require updates be implemented into the PRG and DCC exposure scenarios. Recent improvements have been made in the biota modeling for these calculators, including newly derived biota intake rates, more comprehensive soil mass loading factors (MLFs), and more comprehensive soil to tissue transfer factors (TFs) for animals and soil to plant transfer factors (BV's). New biota have been added in both the produce and animal products categories that greatly improve the accuracy and utility of the PRG and DCC calculators and encompass greater geographic diversity on a national and international scale.

  7. Biota Modeling in EPA's Preliminary Remediation Goal and Dose Compliance Concentration Calculators for Use in EPA Superfund Risk Assessment: Explanation of Intake Rate Derivation, Transfer Factor Compilation, and Mass Loading Factor Sources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Manning, Karessa L.; Dolislager, Fredrick G.; Bellamy, Michael B.

    2016-01-01

    The Preliminary Remediation Goal (PRG) and Dose Compliance Concentration (DCC) calculators are screening level tools that set forth Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) recommended approaches, based upon currently available information with respect to risk assessment, for response actions at Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA) sites, commonly known as Superfund. The screening levels derived by the PRG and DCC calculators are used to identify isotopes contributing the highest risk and dose as well as establish preliminary remediation goals. Each calculator has a residential gardening scenario and subsistence farmer exposure scenarios that require modeling of the transfer of contaminants from soil and water into various types of biota (crops and animal products). New publications of human intake rates of biota; farm animal intakes of water, soil, and fodder; and soil to plant interactions require updates be implemented into the PRG and DCC exposure scenarios. Recent improvements have been made in the biota modeling for these calculators, including newly derived biota intake rates, more comprehensive soil mass loading factors (MLFs), and more comprehensive soil to tissue transfer factors (TFs) for animals and soil to plant transfer factors (BV's). New biota have been added in both the produce and animal products categories that greatly improve the accuracy and utility of the PRG and DCC calculators and encompass greater geographic diversity on a national and international scale.

  8. Reactor safety study. An assessment of accident risks in U. S. commercial nuclear power plants. Appendix VI. Calculation of reactor accident consequences. [PWR and BWR

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1975-10-01

    Information is presented concerning the radioactive releases from the containment following accidents; radioactive inventory of the reactor core; atmospheric dispersion; reactor sites and meteorological data; radioactive decay and deposition from plumes; finite distance of plume travel; dosimetric models; health effects; demographic data; mitigation of radiation exposure; economic model; and calculated results with consequence model.

  9. Reactor safety study. An assessment of accident risks in U.S. commercial nuclear power plants. Appendix VI. Calculation of reactor accident consequences

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1975-10-01

    Information is presented concerning the radioactive releases from the containment following accidents; radioactive inventory of the reactor core; atmospheric dispersion; reactor sites and meteorological data; radioactive decay and deposition from plumes; finite distance of plume travel; dosimetric models; health effects; demographic data; mitigation of radiation exposure; economic model; and calculated results with consequence model

  10. 17 CFR 402.2a - Appendix A-Calculation of market risk haircut for purposes of § 402.2(g)(2).

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 17 Commodity and Securities Exchanges 3 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Appendix A-Calculation of... Exchanges DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY REGULATIONS UNDER SECTION 15C OF THE SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934... with any such category is impossible. After all netting has been completed for category pairs with a 20...

  11. Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barshi, Immanuel

    2016-01-01

    Speaking up, i.e. expressing ones concerns, is a critical piece of effective communication. Yet, we see many situations in which crew members have concerns and still remain silent. Why would that be the case? And how can we assess the risks of speaking up vs. the risks of keeping silent? And once we do make up our minds to speak up, how should we go about it? Our workshop aims to answer these questions, and to provide us all with practical tools for effective risk assessment and effective speaking-up strategies..

  12. Calculating sales prices for natural gas. Securing success through an assessment of risks and opportunities; Vertriebspreiskalkulation Erdgas. Erfolgssicherung durch Chancen- und Risikobewertung

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gumbel, Steffen; Henze, Michael [energie quader GmbH, Darmstadt (Germany)

    2011-11-15

    Over the past years the gas market, which was once entirely supply-driven, has developed more and more into a buyer's market. Gas supply companies increasingly see themselves confronted with more innovative and varied supply inquiries from their customers. With sales margins increasingly coming under pressure, this often leaves no option but to give close consideration to the appropriate risk premium. This creates an urgent need to review existing risk assessment methods and put a stronger focus on possible opportunities.

  13. Relative Hazard Calculation Methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    DL Strenge; MK White; RD Stenner; WB Andrews

    1999-01-01

    The methodology presented in this document was developed to provide a means of calculating the RH ratios to use in developing useful graphic illustrations. The RH equation, as presented in this methodology, is primarily a collection of key factors relevant to understanding the hazards and risks associated with projected risk management activities. The RH equation has the potential for much broader application than generating risk profiles. For example, it can be used to compare one risk management activity with another, instead of just comparing it to a fixed baseline as was done for the risk profiles. If the appropriate source term data are available, it could be used in its non-ratio form to estimate absolute values of the associated hazards. These estimated values of hazard could then be examined to help understand which risk management activities are addressing the higher hazard conditions at a site. Graphics could be generated from these absolute hazard values to compare high-hazard conditions. If the RH equation is used in this manner, care must be taken to specifically define and qualify the estimated absolute hazard values (e.g., identify which factors were considered and which ones tended to drive the hazard estimation)

  14. Stochastic calculations for radiation risk assessment: a Monte-Carlo approach to the simulation of radiocesium transport in the pasture-cow-milk food chain

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mathies, M; Eisfeld, K; Paretzke, H; Wirth, E [Gesellschaft fuer Strahlen- und Umweltforschung m.b.H. Muenchen, Neuherberg (Germany, F.R.). Inst. fuer Strahlenschutz

    1981-05-01

    The effects of introducing probability distributions of the parameters in radionuclide transport models are investigated. Results from a Monte-Carlo simulation were presented for the transport of /sup 137/Cs via the pasture-cow-milk pathway, taking into the account the uncertainties and naturally occurring fluctuations in the rate constants. The results of the stochastic model calculations characterize the activity concentrations at a given time t and provide a great deal more information for analysis of the environmental transport of radionuclides than deterministic calculations in which the variation of parameters is not taken into consideration. Moreover the stochastic model permits an estimate of the variation of the physico-chemical behaviour of radionuclides in the environment in a more realistic way than by using only the highest transfer coefficients in deterministic approaches, which can lead to non-realistic overestimates of the probability with which high activity levels will be encountered.

  15. Re-conceptualising prenatal life stressors in predicting post-partum depression: cumulative-, specific-, and domain-specific approaches to calculating risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Cindy H; Tronick, Ed

    2013-09-01

    Prenatal life stress predicts post-partum depression (PPD); however, studies generally examine individual stressors (a specific approach) or the summation of such exposure (a cumulative approach) and their associations with PPD. Such approaches may oversimplify prenatal life stress as a risk factor for PPD. We evaluated approaches in assessing prenatal life stress as a predictor of PPD diagnosis, including a domain-specific approach that captures cumulative life stress while accounting for stress across different life stress domains: financial, relational, and physical health. The Pregnancy Risk Assessment Monitoring System, a population-based survey, was used to analyse the association of prenatal life stressors with PPD diagnoses among 3566 New York City post-partum women. Specific stressors were not associated with PPD diagnosis after controlling for sociodemographic variables. Exposure to a greater number of stressors was associated with PPD diagnosis, even after adjusting for both sociodemographic variables and specific stressors [odds ratio (OR) = 3.1, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.5, 6.7]. Individuals reporting a moderate-to-high number of financial problems along with a moderate-to-high number of physical problems were at greater odds of PPD (OR = 4.2, 95% CI = 1.2, 15.3); those with a moderate-to-high number of problems in all three domains were at over fivefold increased odds of PPD (OR = 5.5, CI = 1.1, 28.5). In assessing prenatal stress, clinicians should consider the extent to which stressors occur across different life domains; this association appears stronger with PPD diagnosis than simple assessments of individual stressors, which typically overestimate risk or cumulative exposures. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  16. SU-E-T-381: Evaluation of Calculated Dose Accuracy for Organs-At-Risk Located at Out-Of-Field in a Commercial Treatment Planning System for High Energy Photon Beams Produced From TrueBeam Accelerators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, L; Ding, G

    2015-01-01

    Purpose: Dose calculation accuracy for the out-of-field dose is important for predicting the dose to the organs-at-risk when they are located outside primary beams. The investigations on evaluating the calculation accuracy of treatment planning systems (TPS) on out-of-field dose in existing publications have focused on low energy (6MV) photon. This study evaluates out-of-field dose calculation accuracy of AAA algorithm for 15MV high energy photon beams. Methods: We used the EGSnrc Monte Carlo (MC) codes to evaluate the AAA algorithm in Varian Eclipse TPS (v.11). The incident beams start with validated Varian phase-space sources for a TrueBeam linac equipped with Millennium 120 MLC. Dose comparisons between using AAA and MC for CT based realistic patient treatment plans using VMAT techniques for prostate and lung were performed and uncertainties of organ dose predicted by AAA at out-of-field location were evaluated. Results: The results show that AAA calculations under-estimate doses at the dose level of 1% (or less) of prescribed dose for CT based patient treatment plans using VMAT techniques. In regions where dose is only 1% of prescribed dose, although AAA under-estimates the out-of-field dose by 30% relative to the local dose, it is only about 0.3% of prescribed dose. For example, the uncertainties of calculated organ dose to liver or kidney that is located out-of-field is <0.3% of prescribed dose. Conclusion: For 15MV high energy photon beams, very good agreements (<1%) in calculating dose distributions were obtained between AAA and MC. The uncertainty of out-of-field dose calculations predicted by the AAA algorithm for realistic patient VMAT plans is <0.3% of prescribed dose in regions where the dose relative to the prescribed dose is <1%, although the uncertainties can be much larger relative to local doses. For organs-at-risk located at out-of-field, the error of dose predicted by Eclipse using AAA is negligible. This work was conducted in part using the

  17. Critical dose and toxicity index of organs at risk in radiotherapy: Analyzing the calculated effects of modified dose fractionation in non–small cell lung cancer

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pedicini, Piernicola, E-mail: ppiern@libero.it [Service of Medical Physics, I.R.C.C.S. Regional Cancer Hospital C.R.O.B, Rionero in Vulture (Italy); Strigari, Lidia [Laboratory of Medical Physics and Expert Systems, Regina Elena National Cancer Institute, Rome (Italy); Benassi, Marcello [Service of Medical Physics, Scientific Institute of Tumours of Romagna I.R.S.T., Meldola (Italy); Caivano, Rocchina [Service of Medical Physics, I.R.C.C.S. Regional Cancer Hospital C.R.O.B, Rionero in Vulture (Italy); Fiorentino, Alba [U.O. of Radiotherapy, I.R.C.C.S. Regional Cancer Hospital C.R.O.B., Rionero in Vulture (Italy); Nappi, Antonio [U.O. of Nuclear Medicine, I.R.C.C.S. Regional Cancer Hospital C.R.O.B., Rionero in Vulture (Italy); Salvatore, Marco [U.O. of Nuclear Medicine, I.R.C.C.S. SDN Foundation, Naples (Italy); Storto, Giovanni [U.O. of Nuclear Medicine, I.R.C.C.S. Regional Cancer Hospital C.R.O.B., Rionero in Vulture (Italy)

    2014-04-01

    To increase the efficacy of radiotherapy for non–small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), many schemes of dose fractionation were assessed by a new “toxicity index” (I), which allows one to choose the fractionation schedules that produce less toxic treatments. Thirty-two patients affected by non resectable NSCLC were treated by standard 3-dimensional conformal radiotherapy (3DCRT) with a strategy of limited treated volume. Computed tomography datasets were employed to re plan by simultaneous integrated boost intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT). The dose distributions from plans were used to test various schemes of dose fractionation, in 3DCRT as well as in IMRT, by transforming the dose-volume histogram (DVH) into a biological equivalent DVH (BDVH) and by varying the overall treatment time. The BDVHs were obtained through the toxicity index, which was defined for each of the organs at risk (OAR) by a linear quadratic model keeping an equivalent radiobiological effect on the target volume. The less toxic fractionation consisted in a severe/moderate hyper fractionation for the volume including the primary tumor and lymph nodes, followed by a hypofractionation for the reduced volume of the primary tumor. The 3DCRT and IMRT resulted, respectively, in 4.7% and 4.3% of dose sparing for the spinal cord, without significant changes for the combined-lungs toxicity (p < 0.001). Schedules with reduced overall treatment time (accelerated fractionations) led to a 12.5% dose sparing for the spinal cord (7.5% in IMRT), 8.3% dose sparing for V{sub 20} in the combined lungs (5.5% in IMRT), and also significant dose sparing for all the other OARs (p < 0.001). The toxicity index allows to choose fractionation schedules with reduced toxicity for all the OARs and equivalent radiobiological effect for the tumor in 3DCRT, as well as in IMRT, treatments of NSCLC.

  18. whoishRisk – an R package to calculate WHO/ISH cardiovascular risk scores for all epidemiological subregions of the world [version 2; referees: 2 approved, 1 approved with reservations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dylan Collins

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The World Health Organisation and International Society of Hypertension (WHO/ISH cardiovascular disease (CVD risk assessment charts have been implemented in many low- and middle-income countries as part of the WHO Package of Essential Non-Communicable Disease (PEN Interventions for Primary Health Care in Low-Resource settings. Evaluation of the WHO/ISH cardiovascular risk charts and their use is a key priority and since they only existed in paper or PDF formats, we developed an R implementation of the charts for all epidemiological subregions of the world. The main strengths of this implementation are that it is built in a free, open-source, coding language with simple syntax, can be downloaded from github as a package (“whoishRisk”, and can be used with a standard computer.

  19. Comment on 'Calculated MPC values for Pu02 by comparing the added risk of cancer with the accepted occupational risks', by De Bont, A.H.; Beentjes, L.B., and reply

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cohen, B.L.

    1980-01-01

    The article (Health Phys. 36, 53-58, 1979) adopts 10 -4 /yr as the 'accepted occupational risks'. Dr. Cohen criticises that value and its application to determination of MPC values for radioactivity for several reasons. The authors' reply states that their intention is not to exaggerate dangers, but that they believe that they have good reasons to suggest a reduction in the MPC for Pu0 2 . (author)

  20. Prenatal radiation exposure. Dose calculation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scharwaechter, C.; Schwartz, C.A.; Haage, P.; Roeser, A.

    2015-01-01

    The unborn child requires special protection. In this context, the indication for an X-ray examination is to be checked critically. If thereupon radiation of the lower abdomen including the uterus cannot be avoided, the examination should be postponed until the end of pregnancy or alternative examination techniques should be considered. Under certain circumstances, either accidental or in unavoidable cases after a thorough risk assessment, radiation exposure of the unborn may take place. In some of these cases an expert radiation hygiene consultation may be required. This consultation should comprise the expected risks for the unborn while not perturbing the mother or the involved medical staff. For the risk assessment in case of an in-utero X-ray exposition deterministic damages with a defined threshold dose are distinguished from stochastic damages without a definable threshold dose. The occurrence of deterministic damages depends on the dose and the developmental stage of the unborn at the time of radiation. To calculate the risks of an in-utero radiation exposure a three-stage concept is commonly applied. Depending on the amount of radiation, the radiation dose is either estimated, roughly calculated using standard tables or, in critical cases, accurately calculated based on the individual event. The complexity of the calculation thereby increases from stage to stage. An estimation based on stage one is easily feasible whereas calculations based on stages two and especially three are more complex and often necessitate execution by specialists. This article demonstrates in detail the risks for the unborn child pertaining to its developmental phase and explains the three-stage concept as an evaluation scheme. It should be noted, that all risk estimations are subject to considerable uncertainties.

  1. Magnetic Field Calculator

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Magnetic Field Calculator will calculate the total magnetic field, including components (declination, inclination, horizontal intensity, northerly intensity,...

  2. FRAX TM: un nuevo instrumento para calcular el riesgo absoluto de fracturas a 10 años FRAX TM: A new instrument for calculating 10-year absolute fracture risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Haraldo Claus-Hermberg

    2009-10-01

    nature of the proposed endpoint, a new calculator has been proposed: Fracture Risk Assessment Tool FRAX TM, which follows the same objectives of previous models, but integrates and combines several of those factors according to their relative weight. It can estimate absolute risk of hip fracture (or a combination of osteoporotic fractures for the following 10 years. The calculator could be adapted for use in any country by the incorporation of hip fracture incidence and age- and sex-adjusted life expectancy in the same country. This instrument has been presented as a new paradigm to assist in clinical and therapeutic decision-making. In the present review some of its characteristics are discussed, such as: the purported applicability to different populations, the convenience of using 10-year absolute fracture risk for the whole age range under consideration, and whether the efficacy of pharmacological treatment for the prevention of bone fractures in osteoporotic patients can be expected to be equally effective among patients selected for treatment on the basis of this model. Finally, we would like to call attention to the fact that risk thresholds for intervention are not yet clearly defined; those thresholds can obviously be expected to have a profound impact on the number of patients amenable to treatment.

  3. CO2 flowrate calculator

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carossi, Jean-Claude

    1969-02-01

    A CO 2 flowrate calculator has been designed for measuring and recording the gas flow in the loops of Pegase reactor. The analog calculator applies, at every moment, Bernoulli's formula to the values that characterize the carbon dioxide flow through a nozzle. The calculator electronics is described (it includes a sampling calculator and a two-variable function generator), with its amplifiers, triggers, interpolator, multiplier, etc. Calculator operation and setting are presented

  4. Evaluation of potential severe accidents during low power and shutdown operations at Grand Gulf, Unit 1: Evaluation of severe accident risks for plant operational state 5 during a refueling outage. Supporting MELCOR calculations, Volume 6, Part 2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kmetyk, L.N.; Brown, T.D.

    1995-03-01

    To gain a better understanding of the risk significance of low power and shutdown modes of operation, the Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research at the NRC established programs to investigate the likelihood and severity of postulated accidents that could occur during low power and shutdown (LP ampersand S) modes of operation at commercial nuclear power plants. To investigate the likelihood of severe core damage accidents during off power conditions, probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) were performed for two nuclear plants: Unit 1 of the Grand Gulf Nuclear Station, which is a BWR-6 Mark III boiling water reactor (BWR), and Unit 1 of the Surry Power Station, which is a three-loop, subatmospheric, pressurized water reactor (PWR). The analysis of the BWR was conducted at Sandia National Laboratories while the analysis of the PWR was performed at Brookhaven National Laboratory. This multi-volume report presents and discusses the results of the BWR analysis. The subject of this part presents the deterministic code calculations, performed with the MELCOR code, that were used to support the development and quantification of the PRA models. The background for the work documented in this report is summarized, including how deterministic codes are used in PRAS, why the MELCOR code is used, what the capabilities and features of MELCOR are, and how the code has been used by others in the past. Brief descriptions of the Grand Gulf plant and its configuration during LP ampersand S operation and of the MELCOR input model developed for the Grand Gulf plant in its LP ampersand S configuration are given

  5. Evaluation of potential severe accidents during low power and shutdown operations at Grand Gulf, Unit 1: Evaluation of severe accident risks for plant operational state 5 during a refueling outage. Supporting MELCOR calculations, Volume 6, Part 2

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kmetyk, L.N.; Brown, T.D. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    1995-03-01

    To gain a better understanding of the risk significance of low power and shutdown modes of operation, the Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research at the NRC established programs to investigate the likelihood and severity of postulated accidents that could occur during low power and shutdown (LP&S) modes of operation at commercial nuclear power plants. To investigate the likelihood of severe core damage accidents during off power conditions, probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) were performed for two nuclear plants: Unit 1 of the Grand Gulf Nuclear Station, which is a BWR-6 Mark III boiling water reactor (BWR), and Unit 1 of the Surry Power Station, which is a three-loop, subatmospheric, pressurized water reactor (PWR). The analysis of the BWR was conducted at Sandia National Laboratories while the analysis of the PWR was performed at Brookhaven National Laboratory. This multi-volume report presents and discusses the results of the BWR analysis. The subject of this part presents the deterministic code calculations, performed with the MELCOR code, that were used to support the development and quantification of the PRA models. The background for the work documented in this report is summarized, including how deterministic codes are used in PRAS, why the MELCOR code is used, what the capabilities and features of MELCOR are, and how the code has been used by others in the past. Brief descriptions of the Grand Gulf plant and its configuration during LP&S operation and of the MELCOR input model developed for the Grand Gulf plant in its LP&S configuration are given.

  6. Heterogeneous Calculation of {epsilon}

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jonsson, Alf

    1961-02-15

    A heterogeneous method of calculating the fast fission factor given by Naudet has been applied to the Carlvik - Pershagen definition of {epsilon}. An exact calculation of the collision probabilities is included in the programme developed for the Ferranti - Mercury computer.

  7. Heterogeneous Calculation of ε

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jonsson, Alf

    1961-02-01

    A heterogeneous method of calculating the fast fission factor given by Naudet has been applied to the Carlvik - Pershagen definition of ε. An exact calculation of the collision probabilities is included in the programme developed for the Ferranti - Mercury computer

  8. The added value of percentage of free to total prostate-specific antigen, PCA3, and a kallikrein panel to the ERSPC risk calculator for prostate cancer in prescreened men.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vedder, Moniek M; de Bekker-Grob, Esther W; Lilja, Hans G; Vickers, Andrew J; van Leenders, Geert J L H; Steyerberg, Ewout W; Roobol, Monique J

    2014-12-01

    Prostate-specific antigen (PSA) testing has limited accuracy for the early detection of prostate cancer (PCa). To assess the value added by percentage of free to total PSA (%fPSA), prostate cancer antigen 3 (PCA3), and a kallikrein panel (4k-panel) to the European Randomised Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer (ERSPC) multivariable prediction models: risk calculator (RC) 4, including transrectal ultrasound, and RC 4 plus digital rectal examination (4+DRE) for prescreened men. Participants were invited for rescreening between October 2007 and February 2009 within the Dutch part of the ERSPC study. Biopsies were taken in men with a PSA level ≥3.0 ng/ml or a PCA3 score ≥10. Additional analyses of the 4k-panel were done on serum samples. Outcome was defined as PCa detectable by sextant biopsy. Receiver operating characteristic curve and decision curve analyses were performed to compare the predictive capabilities of %fPSA, PCA3, 4k-panel, the ERSPC RCs, and their combinations in logistic regression models. PCa was detected in 119 of 708 men. The %fPSA did not perform better univariately or added to the RCs compared with the RCs alone. In 202 men with an elevated PSA, the 4k-panel discriminated better than PCA3 when modelled univariately (area under the curve [AUC]: 0.78 vs. 0.62; p=0.01). The multivariable models with PCA3 or the 4k-panel were equivalent (AUC: 0.80 for RC 4+DRE). In the total population, PCA3 discriminated better than the 4k-panel (univariate AUC: 0.63 vs. 0.56; p=0.05). There was no statistically significant difference between the multivariable model with PCA3 (AUC: 0.73) versus the model with the 4k-panel (AUC: 0.71; p=0.18). The multivariable model with PCA3 performed better than the reference model (0.73 vs. 0.70; p=0.02). Decision curves confirmed these patterns, although numbers were small. Both PCA3 and, to a lesser extent, a 4k-panel have added value to the DRE-based ERSPC RC in detecting PCa in prescreened men. We studied the added

  9. Core calculations of JMTR

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nagao, Yoshiharu [Japan Atomic Energy Research Inst., Oarai, Ibaraki (Japan). Oarai Research Establishment

    1998-03-01

    In material testing reactors like the JMTR (Japan Material Testing Reactor) of 50 MW in Japan Atomic Energy Research Institute, the neutron flux and neutron energy spectra of irradiated samples show complex distributions. It is necessary to assess the neutron flux and neutron energy spectra of an irradiation field by carrying out the nuclear calculation of the core for every operation cycle. In order to advance core calculation, in the JMTR, the application of MCNP to the assessment of core reactivity and neutron flux and spectra has been investigated. In this study, in order to reduce the time for calculation and variance, the comparison of the results of the calculations by the use of K code and fixed source and the use of Weight Window were investigated. As to the calculation method, the modeling of the total JMTR core, the conditions for calculation and the adopted variance reduction technique are explained. The results of calculation are shown. Significant difference was not observed in the results of neutron flux calculations according to the difference of the modeling of fuel region in the calculations by K code and fixed source. The method of assessing the results of neutron flux calculation is described. (K.I.)

  10. Electronics Environmental Benefits Calculator

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — The Electronics Environmental Benefits Calculator (EEBC) was developed to assist organizations in estimating the environmental benefits of greening their purchase,...

  11. Electrical installation calculations basic

    CERN Document Server

    Kitcher, Christopher

    2013-01-01

    All the essential calculations required for basic electrical installation workThe Electrical Installation Calculations series has proved an invaluable reference for over forty years, for both apprentices and professional electrical installation engineers alike. The book provides a step-by-step guide to the successful application of electrical installation calculations required in day-to-day electrical engineering practice. A step-by-step guide to everyday calculations used on the job An essential aid to the City & Guilds certificates at Levels 2 and 3Fo

  12. Electrical installation calculations advanced

    CERN Document Server

    Kitcher, Christopher

    2013-01-01

    All the essential calculations required for advanced electrical installation workThe Electrical Installation Calculations series has proved an invaluable reference for over forty years, for both apprentices and professional electrical installation engineers alike. The book provides a step-by-step guide to the successful application of electrical installation calculations required in day-to-day electrical engineering practiceA step-by-step guide to everyday calculations used on the job An essential aid to the City & Guilds certificates at Levels 2 and 3For apprentices and electrical installatio

  13. Radar Signature Calculation Facility

    Data.gov (United States)

    Federal Laboratory Consortium — FUNCTION: The calculation, analysis, and visualization of the spatially extended radar signatures of complex objects such as ships in a sea multipath environment and...

  14. Waste Package Lifting Calculation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    H. Marr

    2000-01-01

    The objective of this calculation is to evaluate the structural response of the waste package during the horizontal and vertical lifting operations in order to support the waste package lifting feature design. The scope of this calculation includes the evaluation of the 21 PWR UCF (pressurized water reactor uncanistered fuel) waste package, naval waste package, 5 DHLW/DOE SNF (defense high-level waste/Department of Energy spent nuclear fuel)--short waste package, and 44 BWR (boiling water reactor) UCF waste package. Procedure AP-3.12Q, Revision 0, ICN 0, calculations, is used to develop and document this calculation

  15. 岩体滑坡冲击能计算及受灾体易损性定量评估%IMPACT ENERGY CALCULATION FOR ROCK SLOPE AND QUANTITATIVE ASSESSMENT OF VULNERABILITY FOR ELEMENT AT RISK

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    吴越; 刘东升; 李明军

    2011-01-01

    In the processes of landslide mass sliding and impacting on element at risk, the internal collapse of landslide mass will dissipate part of kinetic energy. But in practice, this part of energy is not taken usually into account. The discrete element method(DEM) is adopted to get impact force-time curves; and the impact energy conversion equation is also deduced based on impulse law and energy conservation law. With the analysis of the energy dissipation principle in the sliding and impacting processes of a practical rock slope, a comparison is made between the calculation method which takes both internal and external energy dissipations into account and the method which only takes external energy dissipation into account. The result shows that there is a significant difference between the two methods; and the internal energy dissipation can not be ignored. Moreover, the influence factors of impact energy and vulnerability for element at risk are both analyzed. The analysis result shows that impact energy is most sensitive to internal friction angle of landslide debris; second sensitive to distance between element at risk and landslide mass, gap length between joint segments, density of landslide mass and width of impact surface; last sensitive to the cohesion of landslide mass. In addition, the impact direction of landslide debris can simulataneously effect both impact energy and anti-impact energy.%滑体下滑及对受灾体冲击过程中,由于滑体内部的崩解碰撞将会耗散部分动能,而工程中通常采用简化的方法计算滑体冲击能,没有考虑内部耗能的影响.采用离散元法模拟得到滑体对受灾体的冲击力-时间曲线,根据冲量定律和能量守恒定律换算得到滑体冲击能.以实际工程为例,详细分析滑体下滑过程与冲击受灾体过程中的能耗规律.结果表明:同时考虑下滑和冲击过程中滑体内外部耗能的计算方法与只考虑滑体外部摩擦耗能的计算方法相比,

  16. PWR core design calculations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Trkov, A.; Ravnik, M.; Zeleznik, N.

    1992-01-01

    Functional description of the programme package Cord-2 for PWR core design calculations is presented. Programme package is briefly described. Use of the package and calculational procedures for typical core design problems are treated. Comparison of main results with experimental values is presented as part of the verification process. (author) [sl

  17. Uneconomical top calculation method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    De Noord, M.; Vanm Sambeek, E.J.W.

    2003-08-01

    The methodology used to calculate the financial gap of renewable electricity sources and technologies is described. This methodology is used for calculating the production subsidy levels (MEP subsidies) for new renewable electricity projects in 2004 and 2005 in the Netherlands [nl

  18. The Dental Trauma Internet Calculator

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gerds, Thomas Alexander; Lauridsen, Eva Fejerskov; Christensen, Søren Steno Ahrensburg

    2012-01-01

    Background/Aim Prediction tools are increasingly used to inform patients about the future dental health outcome. Advanced statistical methods are required to arrive at unbiased predictions based on follow-up studies. Material and Methods The Internet risk calculator at the Dental Trauma Guide...... provides prognoses for teeth with traumatic injuries based on the Copenhagen trauma database: http://www.dentaltraumaguide.org The database includes 2191 traumatized permanent teeth from 1282 patients that were treated at the dental trauma unit at the University Hospital in Copenhagen (Denmark...

  19. Dose calculation for electrons

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hirayama, Hideo

    1995-01-01

    The joint working group of ICRP/ICRU is advancing the works of reviewing the ICRP publication 51 by investigating the data related to radiation protection. In order to introduce the 1990 recommendation, it has been demanded to carry out calculation for neutrons, photons and electrons. As for electrons, EURADOS WG4 (Numerical Dosimetry) rearranged the data to be calculated at the meeting held in PTB Braunschweig in June, 1992, and the question and request were presented by Dr. J.L. Chartier, the responsible person, to the researchers who are likely to undertake electron transport Monte Carlo calculation. The author also has carried out the requested calculation as it was the good chance to do the mutual comparison among various computation codes regarding electron transport calculation. The content that the WG requested to calculate was the absorbed dose at depth d mm when parallel electron beam enters at angle α into flat plate phantoms of PMMA, water and ICRU4-element tissue, which were placed in vacuum. The calculation was carried out by the versatile electron-photon shower computation Monte Carlo code, EGS4. As the results, depth dose curves and the dependence of absorbed dose on electron energy, incident angle and material are reported. The subjects to be investigated are pointed out. (K.I.)

  20. Large scale GW calculations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Govoni, Marco; Argonne National Lab., Argonne, IL; Galli, Giulia; Argonne National Lab., Argonne, IL

    2015-01-01

    We present GW calculations of molecules, ordered and disordered solids and interfaces, which employ an efficient contour deformation technique for frequency integration and do not require the explicit evaluation of virtual electronic states nor the inversion of dielectric matrices. We also present a parallel implementation of the algorithm, which takes advantage of separable expressions of both the single particle Green's function and the screened Coulomb interaction. The method can be used starting from density functional theory calculations performed with semilocal or hybrid functionals. The newly developed technique was applied to GW calculations of systems of unprecedented size, including water/semiconductor interfaces with thousands of electrons

  1. Radioactive cloud dose calculations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Healy, J.W.

    1984-01-01

    Radiological dosage principles, as well as methods for calculating external and internal dose rates, following dispersion and deposition of radioactive materials in the atmosphere are described. Emphasis has been placed on analytical solutions that are appropriate for hand calculations. In addition, the methods for calculating dose rates from ingestion are discussed. A brief description of several computer programs are included for information on radionuclides. There has been no attempt to be comprehensive, and only a sampling of programs has been selected to illustrate the variety available

  2. Handout on shielding calculation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heilbron Filho, P.F.L.

    1991-01-01

    In order to avoid the difficulties of the radioprotection supervisors in the tasks related to shielding calculations, is presented in this paper the basic concepts of shielding theory. It also includes exercises and examples. (author)

  3. Unit Cost Compendium Calculations

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — The Unit Cost Compendium (UCC) Calculations raw data set was designed to provide for greater accuracy and consistency in the use of unit costs across the USEPA...

  4. PHYSICOCHEMICAL PROPERTY CALCULATIONS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Computer models have been developed to estimate a wide range of physical-chemical properties from molecular structure. The SPARC modeling system approaches calculations as site specific reactions (pKa, hydrolysis, hydration) and `whole molecule' properties (vapor pressure, boilin...

  5. Magnetic Field Grid Calculator

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Magnetic Field Properties Calculator will computes the estimated values of Earth's magnetic field(declination, inclination, vertical component, northerly...

  6. Intercavitary implants dosage calculation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rehder, B.P.

    The use of spacial geometry peculiar to each treatment for the attainment of intercavitary and intersticial implants dosage calculation is presented. The study is made in patients with intercavitary implants by applying a modified Manchester technique [pt

  7. Casio Graphical Calculator Project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stott, Nick

    2001-01-01

    Shares experiences of a project aimed at developing and refining programs written on a Casio FX9750G graphing calculator. Describes in detail some programs used to develop mental strategies and problem solving skills. (MM)

  8. Small portable speed calculator

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burch, J. L.; Billions, J. C.

    1973-01-01

    Calculator is adapted stopwatch calibrated for fast accurate measurement of speeds. Single assembled unit is rugged, self-contained, and relatively inexpensive to manufacture. Potential market includes automobile-speed enforcement, railroads, and field-test facilities.

  9. Calculativeness and trust

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frederiksen, Morten

    2014-01-01

    Williamson’s characterisation of calculativeness as inimical to trust contradicts most sociological trust research. However, a similar argument is found within trust phenomenology. This paper re-investigates Williamson’s argument from the perspective of Løgstrup’s phenomenological theory of trust....... Contrary to Williamson, however, Løgstrup’s contention is that trust, not calculativeness, is the default attitude and only when suspicion is awoken does trust falter. The paper argues that while Williamson’s distinction between calculativeness and trust is supported by phenomenology, the analysis needs...... to take actual subjective experience into consideration. It points out that, first, Løgstrup places trust alongside calculativeness as a different mode of engaging in social interaction, rather conceiving of trust as a state or the outcome of a decision-making process. Secondly, the analysis must take...

  10. Activities for Calculators.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hiatt, Arthur A.

    1987-01-01

    Ten activities that give learners in grades 5-8 a chance to explore mathematics with calculators are provided. The activity cards involve such topics as odd addends, magic squares, strange projects, and conjecturing rules. (MNS)

  11. IRIS core criticality calculations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jecmenica, R.; Trontl, K.; Pevec, D.; Grgic, D.

    2003-01-01

    Three-dimensional Monte Carlo computer code KENO-VI of CSAS26 sequence of SCALE-4.4 code system was applied for pin-by-pin calculations of the effective multiplication factor for the first cycle IRIS reactor core. The effective multiplication factors obtained by the above mentioned Monte Carlo calculations using 27-group ENDF/B-IV library and 238-group ENDF/B-V library have been compared with the effective multiplication factors achieved by HELIOS/NESTLE, CASMO/SIMULATE, and modified CORD-2 nodal calculations. The results of Monte Carlo calculations are found to be in good agreement with the results obtained by the nodal codes. The discrepancies in effective multiplication factor are typically within 1%. (author)

  12. Current interruption transients calculation

    CERN Document Server

    Peelo, David F

    2014-01-01

    Provides an original, detailed and practical description of current interruption transients, origins, and the circuits involved, and how they can be calculated Current Interruption Transients Calculationis a comprehensive resource for the understanding, calculation and analysis of the transient recovery voltages (TRVs) and related re-ignition or re-striking transients associated with fault current interruption and the switching of inductive and capacitive load currents in circuits. This book provides an original, detailed and practical description of current interruption transients, origins,

  13. Source and replica calculations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Whalen, P.P.

    1994-01-01

    The starting point of the Hiroshima-Nagasaki Dose Reevaluation Program is the energy and directional distributions of the prompt neutron and gamma-ray radiation emitted from the exploding bombs. A brief introduction to the neutron source calculations is presented. The development of our current understanding of the source problem is outlined. It is recommended that adjoint calculations be used to modify source spectra to resolve the neutron discrepancy problem

  14. Shielding calculations using FLUKA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yamaguchi, Chiri; Tesch, K.; Dinter, H.

    1988-06-01

    The dose equivalent on the surface of concrete shielding has been calculated using the Monte Carlo code FLUKA86 for incident proton energies from 10 to 800 GeV. The results have been compared with some simple equations. The value of the angular dependent parameter in Moyer's equation has been calculated from the locations where the values of the maximum dose equivalent occur. (author)

  15. Methods for Melting Temperature Calculation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hong, Qi-Jun

    Melting temperature calculation has important applications in the theoretical study of phase diagrams and computational materials screenings. In this thesis, we present two new methods, i.e., the improved Widom's particle insertion method and the small-cell coexistence method, which we developed in order to capture melting temperatures both accurately and quickly. We propose a scheme that drastically improves the efficiency of Widom's particle insertion method by efficiently sampling cavities while calculating the integrals providing the chemical potentials of a physical system. This idea enables us to calculate chemical potentials of liquids directly from first-principles without the help of any reference system, which is necessary in the commonly used thermodynamic integration method. As an example, we apply our scheme, combined with the density functional formalism, to the calculation of the chemical potential of liquid copper. The calculated chemical potential is further used to locate the melting temperature. The calculated results closely agree with experiments. We propose the small-cell coexistence method based on the statistical analysis of small-size coexistence MD simulations. It eliminates the risk of a metastable superheated solid in the fast-heating method, while also significantly reducing the computer cost relative to the traditional large-scale coexistence method. Using empirical potentials, we validate the method and systematically study the finite-size effect on the calculated melting points. The method converges to the exact result in the limit of a large system size. An accuracy within 100 K in melting temperature is usually achieved when the simulation contains more than 100 atoms. DFT examples of Tantalum, high-pressure Sodium, and ionic material NaCl are shown to demonstrate the accuracy and flexibility of the method in its practical applications. The method serves as a promising approach for large-scale automated material screening in which

  16. Uncertainty calculations made easier

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hogenbirk, A.

    1994-07-01

    The results are presented of a neutron cross section sensitivity/uncertainty analysis performed in a complicated 2D model of the NET shielding blanket design inside the ITER torus design, surrounded by the cryostat/biological shield as planned for ITER. The calculations were performed with a code system developed at ECN Petten, with which sensitivity/uncertainty calculations become relatively simple. In order to check the deterministic neutron transport calculations (performed with DORT), calculations were also performed with the Monte Carlo code MCNP. Care was taken to model the 2.0 cm wide gaps between two blanket segments, as the neutron flux behind the vacuum vessel is largely determined by neutrons streaming through these gaps. The resulting neutron flux spectra are in excellent agreement up to the end of the cryostat. It is noted, that at this position the attenuation of the neutron flux is about 1 l orders of magnitude. The uncertainty in the energy integrated flux at the beginning of the vacuum vessel and at the beginning of the cryostat was determined in the calculations. The uncertainty appears to be strongly dependent on the exact geometry: if the gaps are filled with stainless steel, the neutron spectrum changes strongly, which results in an uncertainty of 70% in the energy integrated flux at the beginning of the cryostat in the no-gap-geometry, compared to an uncertainty of only 5% in the gap-geometry. Therefore, it is essential to take into account the exact geometry in sensitivity/uncertainty calculations. Furthermore, this study shows that an improvement of the covariance data is urgently needed in order to obtain reliable estimates of the uncertainties in response parameters in neutron transport calculations. (orig./GL)

  17. SR 97 - Radionuclide transport calculations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lindgren, Maria [Kemakta Konsult AB, Stockholm (Sweden); Lindstroem, Fredrik [Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co., Stockholm (Sweden)

    1999-12-01

    An essential component of a safety assessment is to calculate radionuclide release and dose consequences for different scenarios and cases. The SKB tools for such a quantitative assessment are used to calculate the maximum releases and doses for the hypothetical repository sites Aberg, Beberg and Ceberg for the initial canister defect scenario and also for the glacial melting case for Aberg. The reasonable cases, i.e. all parameters take reasonable values, results in maximum biosphere doses of 5x10{sup -8} Sv/yr for Aberg, 3x10{sup -8} Sv/yr for Beberg and 1x10{sup -8} Sv/yr for Ceberg for peat area. These doses lie significantly below 0.15 mSv/yr. (A dose of 0.15 mSv/yr for unit probability corresponds to the risk limit of 10{sup -5} per year for the most exposed individuals recommended in regulations.) The conclusion that the maximum risk would lie well below 10{sup -5} per year is also demonstrated by results from the probabilistic calculations, which directly assess the resulting risk by combining dose and probability estimates. The analyses indicate that the risk is 2x10{sup -5} Sv/yr for Aberg, 8x10{sup -7} Sv/yr for Beberg and 3x10{sup -8} Sv/yr for Ceberg. The analysis shows that the most important parameters in the near field are the number of defective canisters and the instant release fraction. The influence from varying one parameter never changes the doses as much as an order of magnitude. In the far field the most important uncertainties affecting release and retention are associated with permeability and connectivity of the fractures in the rock. These properties affect several parameters. Highly permeable and well connected fractures imply high groundwater fluxes and short groundwater travel times. Sparsely connected or highly variable fracture properties implies low flow wetted surface along migration paths. It should, however, be remembered that the far-field parameters have little importance if the near-field parameters take their reasonable

  18. SR 97 - Radionuclide transport calculations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lindgren, Maria; Lindstroem, Fredrik

    1999-12-01

    An essential component of a safety assessment is to calculate radionuclide release and dose consequences for different scenarios and cases. The SKB tools for such a quantitative assessment are used to calculate the maximum releases and doses for the hypothetical repository sites Aberg, Beberg and Ceberg for the initial canister defect scenario and also for the glacial melting case for Aberg. The reasonable cases, i.e. all parameters take reasonable values, results in maximum biosphere doses of 5x10 -8 Sv/yr for Aberg, 3x10 -8 Sv/yr for Beberg and 1x10 -8 Sv/yr for Ceberg for peat area. These doses lie significantly below 0.15 mSv/yr. (A dose of 0.15 mSv/yr for unit probability corresponds to the risk limit of 10 -5 per year for the most exposed individuals recommended in regulations.) The conclusion that the maximum risk would lie well below 10 -5 per year is also demonstrated by results from the probabilistic calculations, which directly assess the resulting risk by combining dose and probability estimates. The analyses indicate that the risk is 2x10 -5 Sv/yr for Aberg, 8x10 -7 Sv/yr for Beberg and 3x10 -8 Sv/yr for Ceberg. The analysis shows that the most important parameters in the near field are the number of defective canisters and the instant release fraction. The influence from varying one parameter never changes the doses as much as an order of magnitude. In the far field the most important uncertainties affecting release and retention are associated with permeability and connectivity of the fractures in the rock. These properties affect several parameters. Highly permeable and well connected fractures imply high groundwater fluxes and short groundwater travel times. Sparsely connected or highly variable fracture properties implies low flow wetted surface along migration paths. It should, however, be remembered that the far-field parameters have little importance if the near-field parameters take their reasonable values. In that case almost all

  19. Online plasma calculator

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wisniewski, H.; Gourdain, P.-A.

    2017-10-01

    APOLLO is an online, Linux based plasma calculator. Users can input variables that correspond to their specific plasma, such as ion and electron densities, temperatures, and external magnetic fields. The system is based on a webserver where a FastCGI protocol computes key plasma parameters including frequencies, lengths, velocities, and dimensionless numbers. FastCGI was chosen to overcome security problems caused by JAVA-based plugins. The FastCGI also speeds up calculations over PHP based systems. APOLLO is built upon the WT library, which turns any web browser into a versatile, fast graphic user interface. All values with units are expressed in SI units except temperature, which is in electron-volts. SI units were chosen over cgs units because of the gradual shift to using SI units within the plasma community. APOLLO is intended to be a fast calculator that also provides the user with the proper equations used to calculate the plasma parameters. This system is intended to be used by undergraduates taking plasma courses as well as graduate students and researchers who need a quick reference calculation.

  20. PROSPECTS OF MANAGEMENT ACCOUNTING AND COST CALCULATION

    OpenAIRE

    Marian TAICU

    2014-01-01

    Progress in improving production technology requires appropriate measures to achieve an efficient management of costs. This raises the need for continuous improvement of management accounting and cost calculation. Accounting information in general, and management accounting information in particular, have gained importance in the current economic conditions, which are characterized by risk and uncertainty. The future development of management accounting and cost calculation is essential to me...

  1. PROSPECTS OF MANAGEMENT ACCOUNTING AND COST CALCULATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marian ŢAICU

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Progress in improving production technology requires appropriate measures to achieve an efficient management of costs. This raises the need for continuous improvement of management accounting and cost calculation. Accounting information in general, and management accounting information in particular, have gained importance in the current economic conditions, which are characterized by risk and uncertainty. The future development of management accounting and cost calculation is essential to meet the information needs of management.

  2. Daylight calculations in practice

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Iversen, Anne; Roy, Nicolas; Hvass, Mette

    The aim of the project was to obtain a better understanding of what daylight calculations show and also to gain knowledge of how the different daylight simulation programs perform compared with each other. Experience has shown that results for the same room, obtained from two daylight simulation...... programs can give different results. This can be due to restrictions in the program itself and/or be due to the skills of the persons setting up the models. This is crucial as daylight calculations are used to document that the demands and recommendations to daylight levels outlined by building authorities....... The aim of the project was to obtain a better understanding of what daylight calculations show and also to gain knowledge of how the different daylight simulation programs perform compared with each other. Furthermore the aim was to provide knowledge of how to build up the 3D models that were...

  3. Calculating Quenching Weights

    CERN Document Server

    Salgado, C A; Salgado, Carlos A.; Wiedemann, Urs Achim

    2003-01-01

    We calculate the probability (``quenching weight'') that a hard parton radiates an additional energy fraction due to scattering in spatially extended QCD matter. This study is based on an exact treatment of finite in-medium path length, it includes the case of a dynamically expanding medium, and it extends to the angular dependence of the medium-induced gluon radiation pattern. All calculations are done in the multiple soft scattering approximation (Baier-Dokshitzer-Mueller-Peign\\'e-Schiff--Zakharov ``BDMPS-Z''-formalism) and in the single hard scattering approximation (N=1 opacity approximation). By comparison, we establish a simple relation between transport coefficient, Debye screening mass and opacity, for which both approximations lead to comparable results. Together with this paper, a CPU-inexpensive numerical subroutine for calculating quenching weights is provided electronically. To illustrate its applications, we discuss the suppression of hadronic transverse momentum spectra in nucleus-nucleus colli...

  4. Three recent TDHF calculations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weiss, M.S.

    1981-05-01

    Three applications of TDHF are discussed. First, vibrational spectra of a post grazing collision 40 Ca nucleus is examined and found to contain many high energy components, qualitatively consistent with recent Orsay experiments. Second, the fusion cross section in energy and angular momentum are calculated for 16 O + 24 Mg to exhibit the parameters of the low l window for this system. A sensitivity of the fusion cross section to the effective two body potential is discussed. Last, a preliminary analysis of 86 Kr + 139 La at E/sub lab/ = 505 MeV calculated in the frozen approximation is displayed, compared to experiment and discussed

  5. Fission neutron multiplicity calculations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maerten, H.; Ruben, A.; Seeliger, D.

    1991-01-01

    A model for calculating neutron multiplicities in nuclear fission is presented. It is based on the solution of the energy partition problem as function of mass asymmetry within a phenomenological approach including temperature-dependent microscopic energies. Nuclear structure effects on fragment de-excitation, which influence neutron multiplicities, are discussed. Temperature effects on microscopic energy play an important role in induced fission reactions. Calculated results are presented for various fission reactions induced by neutrons. Data cover the incident energy range 0-20 MeV, i.e. multiple chance fission is considered. (author). 28 refs, 13 figs

  6. Lattice cell burnup calculation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pop-Jordanov, J.

    1977-01-01

    Accurate burnup prediction is a key item for design and operation of a power reactor. It should supply information on isotopic changes at each point in the reactor core and the consequences of these changes on the reactivity, power distribution, kinetic characters, control rod patterns, fuel cycles and operating strategy. A basic stage in the burnup prediction is the lattice cell burnup calculation. This series of lectures attempts to give a review of the general principles and calculational methods developed and applied in this area of burnup physics

  7. PWR core design calculations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Trkov, A; Ravnik, M; Zeleznik, N [Inst. Jozef Stefan, Ljubljana (Slovenia)

    1992-07-01

    Functional description of the programme package Cord-2 for PWR core design calculations is presented. Programme package is briefly described. Use of the package and calculational procedures for typical core design problems are treated. Comparison of main results with experimental values is presented as part of the verification process. (author) [Slovenian] Opisali smo programski paket CORD-2, ki se uporablja pri projektnih izracunih sredice pri upravljanju tlacnovodnega reaktorja. Prikazana je uporaba paketa in racunskih postopkov za tipicne probleme, ki nastopajo pri projektiranju sredice. Primerjava glavnih rezultatov z eksperimentalnimi vrednostmi je predstavljena kot del preveritvenega procesa. (author)

  8. Calculating Student Grades.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allswang, John M.

    1986-01-01

    This article provides two short microcomputer gradebook programs. The programs, written in BASIC for the IBM-PC and Apple II, provide statistical information about class performance and calculate grades either on a normal distribution or based on teacher-defined break points. (JDH)

  9. Cooling tower calculations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Simonkova, J.

    1988-01-01

    The problems are summed up of the dynamic calculation of cooling towers with forced and natural air draft. The quantities and relations are given characterizing the simultaneous exchange of momentum, heat and mass in evaporative water cooling by atmospheric air in the packings of cooling towers. The method of solution is clarified in the calculation of evaporation criteria and thermal characteristics of countercurrent and cross current cooling systems. The procedure is demonstrated of the calculation of cooling towers, and correction curves and the effect assessed of the operating mode at constant air number or constant outlet air volume flow on their course in ventilator cooling towers. In cooling towers with the natural air draft the flow unevenness is assessed of water and air relative to its effect on the resulting cooling efficiency of the towers. The calculation is demonstrated of thermal and resistance response curves and cooling curves of hydraulically unevenly loaded towers owing to the water flow rate parameter graded radially by 20% along the cross-section of the packing. Flow rate unevenness of air due to wind impact on the outlet air flow from the tower significantly affects the temperatures of cooled water in natural air draft cooling towers of a design with lower demands on aerodynamics, as early as at wind velocity of 2 m.s -1 as was demonstrated on a concrete example. (author). 11 figs., 10 refs

  10. Hypervelocity impact cratering calculations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maxwell, D. E.; Moises, H.

    1971-01-01

    A summary is presented of prediction calculations on the mechanisms involved in hypervelocity impact cratering and response of earth media. Considered are: (1) a one-gram lithium-magnesium alloys impacting basalt normally at 6.4 km/sec, and (2) a large terrestrial impact corresponding to that of Sierra Madera.

  11. Languages for structural calculations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thomas, J.B.; Chambon, M.R.

    1988-01-01

    The differences between human and computing languages are recalled. It is argued that they are to some extent structured in antagonistic ways. Languages in structural calculation, in the past, present, and future, are considered. The contribution of artificial intelligence is stressed [fr

  12. Monte Carlo alpha calculation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brockway, D.; Soran, P.; Whalen, P.

    1985-01-01

    A Monte Carlo algorithm to efficiently calculate static alpha eigenvalues, N = ne/sup ..cap alpha..t/, for supercritical systems has been developed and tested. A direct Monte Carlo approach to calculating a static alpha is to simply follow the buildup in time of neutrons in a supercritical system and evaluate the logarithmic derivative of the neutron population with respect to time. This procedure is expensive, and the solution is very noisy and almost useless for a system near critical. The modified approach is to convert the time-dependent problem to a static ..cap alpha../sup -/eigenvalue problem and regress ..cap alpha.. on solutions of a/sup -/ k/sup -/eigenvalue problem. In practice, this procedure is much more efficient than the direct calculation, and produces much more accurate results. Because the Monte Carlo codes are intrinsically three-dimensional and use elaborate continuous-energy cross sections, this technique is now used as a standard for evaluating other calculational techniques in odd geometries or with group cross sections.

  13. Reactor dynamics calculations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Devooght, J.; Lefvert, T.; Stankiewiez, J.

    1981-01-01

    This chapter deals with the work done in reactor dynamics within the Coordinated Research Program on Transport Theory and Advanced Reactor Calculations by three groups in Belgium, Poland, Sweden and Italy. Discretization methods in diffusion theory, collision probability methods in time-dependent neutron transport and singular perturbation method are represented in this paper

  14. Equilibrium fission model calculations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beckerman, M.; Blann, M.

    1976-01-01

    In order to aid in understanding the systematics of heavy ion fission and fission-like reactions in terms of the target-projectile system, bombarding energy and angular momentum, fission widths are calculated using an angular momentum dependent extension of the Bohr-Wheeler theory and particle emission widths using angular momentum coupling

  15. Course on hybrid calculation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weill, J.; Tellier; Bonnemay; Craigne; Chareton; Di Falco

    1969-02-01

    After a definition of hybrid calculation (combination of analogue and digital calculation) with a distinction between series and parallel hybrid computing, and a description of a hybrid computer structure and of task sharing between computers, this course proposes a description of hybrid hardware used in Saclay and Cadarache computing centres, and of operations performed by these systems. The next part addresses issues related to programming languages and software. The fourth part describes how a problem is organised for its processing on these computers. Methods of hybrid analysis are then addressed: resolution of optimisation problems, of partial differential equations, and of integral equations by means of different methods (gradient, maximum principle, characteristics, functional approximation, time slicing, Monte Carlo, Neumann iteration, Fischer iteration)

  16. Calculation of projected ranges

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Biersack, J.P.

    1980-09-01

    The concept of multiple scattering is reconsidered for obtaining the directional spreading of ion motion as a function of energy loss. From this the mean projection of each pathlength element of the ion trajectory is derived which - upon summation or integration - leads to the desired mean projected range. In special cases, the calculation can be carried out analytically, otherwise a simple general algorithm is derived which is suitable even for the smallest programmable calculators. Necessary input for the present treatment consists only of generally accessable stopping power and straggling formulas. The procedure does not rely on scattering cross sections, e.g. power potential or f(t 1 sup(/) 2 ) approximations. The present approach lends itself easily to include electronic straggling or to treat composed target materials, or even to account for the so-called time integral. (orig.)

  17. Spallation reactions: calculations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bertini, H.W.

    1975-01-01

    Current methods for calculating spallation reactions over various energy ranges are described and evaluated. Recent semiempirical fits to existing data will probably yield the most accurate predictions for these reactions in general. However, if the products in question have binding energies appreciably different from their isotropic neighbors and if the cross section is approximately 30 mb or larger, then the intranuclear-cascade-evaporation approach is probably better suited. (6 tables, 12 figures, 34 references) (U.S.)

  18. Performance assessment calculational exercises

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barnard, R.W.; Dockery, H.A.

    1990-01-01

    The Performance Assessment Calculational Exercises (PACE) are an ongoing effort coordinated by Yucca Mountain Project Office. The objectives of fiscal year 1990 work, termed PACE-90, as outlined in the Department of Energy Performance Assessment (PA) Implementation Plan were to develop PA capabilities among Yucca Mountain Project (YMP) participants by calculating performance of a Yucca Mountain (YM) repository under ''expected'' and also ''disturbed'' conditions, to identify critical elements and processes necessary to assess the performance of YM, and to perform sensitivity studies on key parameters. It was expected that the PACE problems would aid in development of conceptual models and eventual evaluation of site data. The PACE-90 participants calculated transport of a selected set of radionuclides through a portion of Yucca Mountain for a period of 100,000 years. Results include analyses of fluid-flow profiles, development of a source term for radionuclide release, and simulations of contaminant transport in the fluid-flow field. Later work included development of a problem definition for perturbations to the originally modeled conditions and for some parametric sensitivity studies. 3 refs

  19. Economic profitability evolution at the Carpathian Commercial Bank , in relation to aggregate values of calculated in the Romanian banking system in the period 2007-2010 and the need to identify banking risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    MEDAR LUCIAN-ION

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available The management of credit institutions must be concerned with identifying the internal and external risks of banking operations development, estimating their size and importance, assessing the possibility and imposing measures for their management. On the one hand, the identification, analysis, and mitigation of banking risks can cause reduction of inconvenient and uneconomical costs and realization of incomes with the role of shock absorber in profits reduction, and on the other hand, ignoring them can lead to loss reflected in the profit decrease, thus affecting the bank performance.

  20. Accurate quantum chemical calculations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bauschlicher, Charles W., Jr.; Langhoff, Stephen R.; Taylor, Peter R.

    1989-01-01

    An important goal of quantum chemical calculations is to provide an understanding of chemical bonding and molecular electronic structure. A second goal, the prediction of energy differences to chemical accuracy, has been much harder to attain. First, the computational resources required to achieve such accuracy are very large, and second, it is not straightforward to demonstrate that an apparently accurate result, in terms of agreement with experiment, does not result from a cancellation of errors. Recent advances in electronic structure methodology, coupled with the power of vector supercomputers, have made it possible to solve a number of electronic structure problems exactly using the full configuration interaction (FCI) method within a subspace of the complete Hilbert space. These exact results can be used to benchmark approximate techniques that are applicable to a wider range of chemical and physical problems. The methodology of many-electron quantum chemistry is reviewed. Methods are considered in detail for performing FCI calculations. The application of FCI methods to several three-electron problems in molecular physics are discussed. A number of benchmark applications of FCI wave functions are described. Atomic basis sets and the development of improved methods for handling very large basis sets are discussed: these are then applied to a number of chemical and spectroscopic problems; to transition metals; and to problems involving potential energy surfaces. Although the experiences described give considerable grounds for optimism about the general ability to perform accurate calculations, there are several problems that have proved less tractable, at least with current computer resources, and these and possible solutions are discussed.

  1. Zero Temperature Hope Calculations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rozsnyai, B. F.

    2002-01-01

    The primary purpose of the HOPE code is to calculate opacities over a wide temperature and density range. It can also produce equation of state (EOS) data. Since the experimental data at the high temperature region are scarce, comparisons of predictions with the ample zero temperature data provide a valuable physics check of the code. In this report we show a selected few examples across the periodic table. Below we give a brief general information about the physics of the HOPE code. The HOPE code is an ''average atom'' (AA) Dirac-Slater self-consistent code. The AA label in the case of finite temperature means that the one-electron levels are populated according to the Fermi statistics, at zero temperature it means that the ''aufbau'' principle works, i.e. no a priory electronic configuration is set, although it can be done. As such, it is a one-particle model (any Hartree-Fock model is a one particle model). The code is an ''ion-sphere'' model, meaning that the atom under investigation is neutral within the ion-sphere radius. Furthermore, the boundary conditions for the bound states are also set at the ion-sphere radius, which distinguishes the code from the INFERNO, OPAL and STA codes. Once the self-consistent AA state is obtained, the code proceeds to generate many-electron configurations and proceeds to calculate photoabsorption in the ''detailed configuration accounting'' (DCA) scheme. However, this last feature is meaningless at zero temperature. There is one important feature in the HOPE code which should be noted; any self-consistent model is self-consistent in the space of the occupied orbitals. The unoccupied orbitals, where electrons are lifted via photoexcitation, are unphysical. The rigorous way to deal with that problem is to carry out complete self-consistent calculations both in the initial and final states connecting photoexcitations, an enormous computational task. The Amaldi correction is an attempt to address this problem by distorting the

  2. Calculation of the inventory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heilbron Filho, P.F.L.; Oliveira Brandao, R. de.

    1988-04-01

    The theory of Point Kernel applied to a source uniformelly distributed in a cylindrical geometry was utilized to estimated the Cs-137 content of each package of radioactive waste collected. The Taylor equation was employed to calculate the build-up factor and the Green function G was adjusted by means of a least square method. The theory also takes into account factors such as aditional shielding, heterogeneity and humidity of the medium as well as associated uncertanties of the parameters envolved. (author) [pt

  3. Calculations in furnace technology

    CERN Document Server

    Davies, Clive; Hopkins, DW; Owen, WS

    2013-01-01

    Calculations in Furnace Technology presents the theoretical and practical aspects of furnace technology. This book provides information pertinent to the development, application, and efficiency of furnace technology. Organized into eight chapters, this book begins with an overview of the exothermic reactions that occur when carbon, hydrogen, and sulfur are burned to release the energy available in the fuel. This text then evaluates the efficiencies to measure the quantity of fuel used, of flue gases leaving the plant, of air entering, and the heat lost to the surroundings. Other chapters consi

  4. Deep penetration calculations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thompson, W.L.; Deutsch, O.L.; Booth, T.E.

    1980-04-01

    Several Monte Carlo techniques are compared in the transport of neutrons of different source energies through two different deep-penetration problems each with two parts. The first problem involves transmission through a 200-cm concrete slab. The second problem is a 90 0 bent pipe jacketed by concrete. In one case the pipe is void, and in the other it is filled with liquid sodium. Calculations are made with two different Los Alamos Monte Carlo codes: the continuous-energy code MCNP and the multigroup code MCMG

  5. Strategic Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Derleth, Jason; Lobia, Marcus

    2009-01-01

    This slide presentation provides an overview of the attempt to develop and demonstrate a methodology for the comparative assessment of risks across the entire portfolio of NASA projects and assets. It includes information about strategic risk identification, normalizing strategic risks, calculation of relative risk score, and implementation options.

  6. Weldon Spring dose calculations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dickson, H.W.; Hill, G.S.; Perdue, P.T.

    1978-09-01

    In response to a request by the Oak Ridge Operations (ORO) Office of the Department of Energy (DOE) for assistance to the Department of the Army (DA) on the decommissioning of the Weldon Spring Chemical Plant, the Health and Safety Research Division of the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) performed limited dose assessment calculations for that site. Based upon radiological measurements from a number of soil samples analyzed by ORNL and from previously acquired radiological data for the Weldon Spring site, source terms were derived to calculate radiation doses for three specific site scenarios. These three hypothetical scenarios are: a wildlife refuge for hunting, fishing, and general outdoor recreation; a school with 40 hr per week occupancy by students and a custodian; and a truck farm producing fruits, vegetables, meat, and dairy products which may be consumed on site. Radiation doses are reported for each of these scenarios both for measured uranium daughter equilibrium ratios and for assumed secular equilibrium. Doses are lower for the nonequilibrium case

  7. Configuration space Faddeev calculations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Payne, G.L.; Klink, W.H.; Polyzou, W.N.

    1989-01-01

    The detailed study of few-body systems provides one of the most effective means for studying nuclear physics at subnucleon distance scales. For few-body systems the model equations can be solved numerically with errors less than the experimental uncertainties. We have used such systems to investigate the size of relativistic effects, the role of meson-exchange currents, and the importance of quark degrees of freedom in the nucleus. Complete calculations for momentum-dependent potentials have been performed, and the properties of the three-body bound state for these potentials have been studied. Few-body calculations of the electromagnetic form factors of the deuteron and pion have been carried out using a front-form formulation of relativistic quantum mechanics. The decomposition of the operators transforming convariantly under the Poincare group into kinematical and dynamical parts has been studies. New ways for constructing interactions between particles, as well as interactions which lead to the production of particles, have been constructed in the context of a relativistic quantum mechanics. To compute scattering amplitudes in a nonperturbative way, classes of operators have been generated out of which the phase operator may be constructed. Finally, we have worked out procedures for computing Clebsch-Gordan and Racah coefficients on a computer, as well as giving procedures for dealing with the multiplicity problem

  8. Buoyant plume calculations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Penner, J.E.; Haselman, L.C.; Edwards, L.L.

    1985-01-01

    Smoke from raging fires produced in the aftermath of a major nuclear exchange has been predicted to cause large decreases in surface temperatures. However, the extent of the decrease and even the sign of the temperature change, depend on how the smoke is distributed with altitude. We present a model capable of evaluating the initial distribution of lofted smoke above a massive fire. Calculations are shown for a two-dimensional slab version of the model and a full three-dimensional version. The model has been evaluated by simulating smoke heights for the Hamburg firestorm of 1943 and a smaller scale oil fire which occurred in Long Beach in 1958. Our plume heights for these fires are compared to those predicted by the classical Morton-Taylor-Turner theory for weakly buoyant plumes. We consider the effect of the added buoyancy caused by condensation of water-laden ground level air being carried to high altitude with the convection column as well as the effects of background wind on the calculated smoke plume heights for several fire intensities. We find that the rise height of the plume depends on the assumed background atmospheric conditions as well as the fire intensity. Little smoke is injected into the stratosphere unless the fire is unusually intense, or atmospheric conditions are more unstable than we have assumed. For intense fires significant amounts of water vapor are condensed raising the possibility of early scavenging of smoke particles by precipitation. 26 references, 11 figures

  9. Shielding calculations for NET

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Verschuur, K.A.; Hogenbirk, A.

    1991-05-01

    In the European Fusion Technology Programme there is only a small activity on research and development for fusion neutronics. Never-the-less, looking further than blanket design now, as ECN is getting involved in design of radiation shields for the coils and biological shields, it becomes apparent that fusion neutronics as a whole still needs substantial development. Existing exact codes for calculation of complex geometries like MCNP and DORT/TORT are put over the limits of their numerical capabilities, whilst approximate codes for complex geometries like FURNACE and MERCURE4 are put over the limits of their modelling capabilities. The main objective of this study is just to find out how far we can get with existing codes in obtaining reliable values for the radiation levels inside and outside the cryostat/shield during operation and after shut-down. Starting with a 1D torus model for preliminary parametric studies, more dimensional approximation of the torus or parts of it including the main heterogeneities should follow. Regular contacts with the NET-Team are kept, to be aware of main changes in NET design that might affect our calculation models. Work on the contract started 1 July 1990. The technical description of the contract is given. (author). 14 refs.; 4 figs.; 1 tab

  10. Web-based thyroid imaging reporting and data system: Malignancy risk of atypia of undetermined significance or follicular lesion of undetermined significance thyroid nodules calculated by a combination of ultrasonography features and biopsy results.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, Young Jun; Baek, Jung Hwan; Shin, Jung Hee; Shim, Woo Hyun; Kim, Seon-Ok; Lee, Won-Hong; Song, Dong Eun; Kim, Tae Yong; Chung, Ki-Wook; Lee, Jeong Hyun

    2018-05-13

    The purpose of this study was to construct a web-based predictive model using ultrasound characteristics and subcategorized biopsy results for thyroid nodules of atypia of undetermined significance/follicular lesion of undetermined significance (AUS/FLUS) to stratify the risk of malignancy. Data included 672 thyroid nodules from 656 patients from a historical cohort. We analyzed ultrasound images of thyroid nodules and biopsy results according to nuclear atypia and architectural atypia. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to predict whether nodules were diagnosed as malignant or benign. The ultrasound features, including spiculated margin, marked hypoechogenicity, calcifications, biopsy results, and cytologic atypia, showed significant differences between groups. A 13-point risk scoring system was developed, and the area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve of the development and validation sets were 0.837 and 0.830, respectively (http://www.gap.kr/thyroidnodule_b3.php). We devised a web-based predictive model using the combined information of ultrasound characteristics and biopsy results for AUS/FLUS thyroid nodules to stratify the malignant risk. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  11. Colorectal Cancer Risk Assessment Tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... 11/12/2014 Risk Calculator About the Tool Colorectal Cancer Risk Factors Download SAS and Gauss Code Page ... Rectal Cancer: Prevention, Genetics, Causes Tests to Detect Colorectal Cancer and Polyps Cancer Risk Prediction Resources Update November ...

  12. Calculating graduation rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Starck, Patricia L; Love, Karen; McPherson, Robert

    2008-01-01

    In recent years, the focus has been on increasing the number of registered nurse (RN) graduates. Numerous states have initiated programs to increase the number and quality of students entering nursing programs, and to expand the capacity of their programs to enroll additional qualified students. However, little attention has been focused on an equally, if not more, effective method for increasing the number of RNs produced-increasing the graduation rate of students enrolling. This article describes a project that undertook the task of compiling graduation data for 15 entry-level programs, standardizing terms and calculations for compiling the data, and producing a regional report on graduation rates of RN students overall and by type of program. Methodology is outlined in this article. This effort produced results that were surprising to program deans and directors and is expected to produce greater collaborative efforts to improve these rates both locally and statewide.

  13. Smile esthetics: calculated beauty?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lecocq, Guillaume; Truong Tan Trung, Lisa

    2014-06-01

    Esthetic demand from patients continues to increase. Consequently, the treatments we offer are moving towards more discreet or invisible techniques using lingual brackets in order to achieve harmonious, balanced results in line with our treatment goals. As orthodontists, we act upon relationships between teeth and bone. And the equilibrium they create impacts the entire face via the smile. A balanced smile is essential to an esthetic outcome and is governed by rules, which guide both the practitioner and patient. A smile can be described in terms of mathematical ratios and proportions but beauty cannot be calculated. For the smile to sit harmoniously within the face, we need to take into account facial proportions and the possibility of their being modified by our orthopedic appliances or by surgery. Copyright © 2014 CEO. Published by Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

  14. Evaluation bases for calculation methods in radioecology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bleck-Neuhaus, J.; Boikat, U.; Franke, B.; Hinrichsen, K.; Hoepfner, U.; Ratka, R.; Steinhilber-Schwab, B.; Teufel, D.; Urbach, M.

    1982-03-01

    The seven contributions in this book deal with the state and problems of radioecology. In particular it analyses: The propagation of radioactive materials in the atmosphere, the transfer of radioactive substances from the soil into plants, respectively from animal feed into meat, the exposure pathways for, and high-risk groups of the population, the uncertainties and the band width of the ingestion factor, as well as the treatment of questions of radioecology in practice. The calculation model is assessed and the difficulty evaluated of laying down data in the general calculation basis. (DG) [de

  15. Screening Risk Evaluation methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hopper, K.M.

    1994-01-01

    The Screening Risk Evaluation (SRE) Guidance document is a set of guidelines provided for the uniform implementation of SREs performed on D ampersand D facilities. These guidelines are designed specifically for the completion of the second (semi-quantitative screening) phase of the D ampersand D Risk-Based Process. The SRE Guidance produces screening risk scores reflecting levels of risk through the use of risk ranking indices. Five types of possible risk are calculated from the SRE: current releases, worker exposures, future releases, physical hazards, and criticality. The Current Release Index (CRI) calculates the risk to human health and the environment from ongoing or probable releases within a one year time period. The Worker Exposure Index (WEI) calculates the risk to workers, occupants, and visitors in D ampersand D facilities of contaminant exposure. The Future Release Index (FRI) calculates the risk of future releases of contaminants, after one year, to human health and the environment. The Physical Hazards Index (PHI) calculates the risk-to human health due to factors other than that of contaminants. The index of Criticality is approached as a modifying factor to the entire SRE, due to the fact that criticality issues are strictly regulated under DOE. Screening risk results will be tabulated in matrix form and Total Risk will be calculated (weighted equation) to produce a score on which to base early action recommendations. Other recommendations from the screening risk scores will be made based either on individual index scores or from reweighted Total Risk calculations. All recommendations based on the SRE will be made based on a combination of screening risk scores, decision drivers, and other considerations, determined on a project by project basis. The SRE is the first and most important step in the overall D ampersand D project level decision making process

  16. Experimental Young's modulus calculations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, Y.; Jayakumar, R.; Yu, K.

    1994-01-01

    Coil is a very important magnet component. The turn location and the coil size impact both mechanical and magnetic behavior of the magnet. The Young's modulus plays a significant role in determining the coil location and size. Therefore, Young's modulus study is essential in predicting both the analytical and practical magnet behavior. To determine the coil Young's modulus, an experiment has been conducted to measure azimuthal sizes of a half quadrant QSE101 inner coil under different loading. All measurements are made at four different positions along an 8-inch long inner coil. Each measurement is repeated three times to determine the reproducibility of the experiment. To ensure the reliability of this experiment, the same measurement is performed twice with a open-quotes dummy coil,close quotes which is made of G10 and has the same dimension and similar azimuthal Young's modulus as the inner coil. The difference between the G10 azimuthal Young's modulus calculated from the experiments and its known value from the manufacturer will be compared. Much effort has been extended in analyzing the experimental data to obtain a more reliable Young's modulus. Analysis methods include the error analysis method and the least square method

  17. Relativistic few body calculations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gross, F.

    1988-01-01

    A modern treatment of the nuclear few-body problem must take into account both the quark structure of baryons and mesons, which should be important at short range, and the relativistic exchange of mesons, which describes the long range, peripheral interactions. A way to model both of these aspects is described. The long range, peripheral interactions are calculated using the spectator model, a general approach in which the spectators to nucleon interactions are put on their mass-shell. Recent numerical results for a relativistic OBE model of the NN interaction, obtained by solving a relativistic equation with one-particle on mass-shell, will be presented and discussed. Two meson exchange models, one with only four mesons (π,σ,/rho/,ω) but with a 25% admixture of γ 5 coupling for the pion, and a second with six mesons (π,σ,/rho/,ω,δ,/eta/) but pure γ 5 γ/sup μ/ pion coupling, are shown to give very good quantitative fits to the NN scattering phase shifts below 400 MeV, and also a good description of the /rvec p/ 40 Ca elastic scattering observables. Applications of this model to electromagnetic interactions of the two body system, with emphasis on the determination of relativistic current operators consistent with the dynamics and the exact treatment of current conservation in the presence of phenomenological form factors, will be described. 18 refs., 8 figs

  18. Equilibrium calculations, ch. 6

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Deursen, A.P.J. van

    1976-01-01

    A calculation is presented of dimer intensities obtained in supersonic expansions. There are two possible limiting considerations; the dimers observed are already present in the source, in thermodynamic equilibrium, and are accelerated in the expansion. Destruction during acceleration is neglected, as are processes leading to newly formed dimers. On the other hand one can apply a kinetic approach, where formation and destruction processes are followed throughout the expansion. The difficulty of this approach stems from the fact that the density, temperature and rate constants have to be known at all distances from the nozzle. The simple point of view has been adopted and the measured dimer intensities are compared with the equilibrium concentration in the source. The comparison is performed under the assumption that the detection efficiency for dimers is twice the detection efficiency for monomers. The experimental evidence against the simple point of view that the dimers of the onset region are formed in the source already, under equilibrium conditions, is discussed. (Auth.)

  19. Configuration space Faddeev calculations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Payne, G.L.; Klink, W.H.; Ployzou, W.N.

    1991-01-01

    The detailed study of few-body systems provides one of the most precise tools for studying the dynamics of nuclei. Our research program consists of a careful theoretical study of the nuclear few-body systems. During the past year we have completed several aspects of this program. We have continued our program of using the trinucleon system to investigate the validity of various realistic nucleon-nucleon potentials. Also, the effects of meson-exchange currents in nuclear systems have been studied. Initial calculations using the configuration-space Faddeev equations for nucleon-deuteron scattering have been completed. With modifications to treat relativistic systems, few-body methods can be applied to phenomena that are sensitive to the structure of the individual hadrons. We have completed a review of Relativistic Hamiltonian Dynamics in Nuclear and Particle Physics for Advances in Nuclear Physics. Although it is called a review, it is a large document that contains a significant amount of new research

  20. Research advances in probability of causation calculation of radiogenic neoplasms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ning Jing; Yuan Yong; Xie Xiangdong; Yang Guoshan

    2009-01-01

    Probability of causation (PC) was used to facilitate the adjudication of compensation claims for cancers diagnosed following exposure to ionizing radiation. In this article, the excess cancer risk assessment models used for PC calculation are reviewed. Cancer risk transfer models between different populations, dependence of cancer risk on dose and dose rate, modification by epidemiological risk factors and application of PC are also discussed in brief. (authors)

  1. The rating reliability calculator

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Solomon David J

    2004-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Rating scales form an important means of gathering evaluation data. Since important decisions are often based on these evaluations, determining the reliability of rating data can be critical. Most commonly used methods of estimating reliability require a complete set of ratings i.e. every subject being rated must be rated by each judge. Over fifty years ago Ebel described an algorithm for estimating the reliability of ratings based on incomplete data. While his article has been widely cited over the years, software based on the algorithm is not readily available. This paper describes an easy-to-use Web-based utility for estimating the reliability of ratings based on incomplete data using Ebel's algorithm. Methods The program is available public use on our server and the source code is freely available under GNU General Public License. The utility is written in PHP, a common open source imbedded scripting language. The rating data can be entered in a convenient format on the user's personal computer that the program will upload to the server for calculating the reliability and other statistics describing the ratings. Results When the program is run it displays the reliability, number of subject rated, harmonic mean number of judges rating each subject, the mean and standard deviation of the averaged ratings per subject. The program also displays the mean, standard deviation and number of ratings for each subject rated. Additionally the program will estimate the reliability of an average of a number of ratings for each subject via the Spearman-Brown prophecy formula. Conclusion This simple web-based program provides a convenient means of estimating the reliability of rating data without the need to conduct special studies in order to provide complete rating data. I would welcome other researchers revising and enhancing the program.

  2. Calculation of source terms for NUREG-1150

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Breeding, R.J.; Williams, D.C.; Murfin, W.B.; Amos, C.N.; Helton, J.C.

    1987-10-01

    The source terms estimated for NUREG-1150 are generally based on the Source Term Code Package (STCP), but the actual source term calculations used in computing risk are performed by much smaller codes which are specific to each plant. This was done because the method of estimating the uncertainty in risk for NUREG-1150 requires hundreds of source term calculations for each accident sequence. This is clearly impossible with a large, detailed code like the STCP. The small plant-specific codes are based on simple algorithms and utilize adjustable parameters. The values of the parameters appearing in these codes are derived from the available STCP results. To determine the uncertainty in the estimation of the source terms, these parameters were varied as specified by an expert review group. This method was used to account for the uncertainties in the STCP results and the uncertainties in phenomena not considered by the STCP

  3. MOx Depletion Calculation Benchmark

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    San Felice, Laurence; Eschbach, Romain; Dewi Syarifah, Ratna; Maryam, Seif-Eddine; Hesketh, Kevin

    2016-01-01

    Under the auspices of the NEA Nuclear Science Committee (NSC), the Working Party on Scientific Issues of Reactor Systems (WPRS) has been established to study the reactor physics, fuel performance, radiation transport and shielding, and the uncertainties associated with modelling of these phenomena in present and future nuclear power systems. The WPRS has different expert groups to cover a wide range of scientific issues in these fields. The Expert Group on Reactor Physics and Advanced Nuclear Systems (EGRPANS) was created in 2011 to perform specific tasks associated with reactor physics aspects of present and future nuclear power systems. EGRPANS provides expert advice to the WPRS and the nuclear community on the development needs (data and methods, validation experiments, scenario studies) for different reactor systems and also provides specific technical information regarding: core reactivity characteristics, including fuel depletion effects; core power/flux distributions; Core dynamics and reactivity control. In 2013 EGRPANS published a report that investigated fuel depletion effects in a Pressurised Water Reactor (PWR). This was entitled 'International Comparison of a Depletion Calculation Benchmark on Fuel Cycle Issues' NEA/NSC/DOC(2013) that documented a benchmark exercise for UO 2 fuel rods. This report documents a complementary benchmark exercise that focused on PuO 2 /UO 2 Mixed Oxide (MOX) fuel rods. The results are especially relevant to the back-end of the fuel cycle, including irradiated fuel transport, reprocessing, interim storage and waste repository. Saint-Laurent B1 (SLB1) was the first French reactor to use MOx assemblies. SLB1 is a 900 MWe PWR, with 30% MOx fuel loading. The standard MOx assemblies, used in Saint-Laurent B1 reactor, include three zones with different plutonium enrichments, high Pu content (5.64%) in the center zone, medium Pu content (4.42%) in the intermediate zone and low Pu content (2.91%) in the peripheral zone

  4. Educational audit on drug dose calculation learning in a Tanzanian ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Background: Patient safety is a key concern for nurses; ability to calculate drug ... Specific objectives were to assess learning from targeted teaching, to identify problem areas in perfor- .... this could result in reduced risk of drug dose error in.

  5. Willow growing - Methods of calculation and profitability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rosenqvist, H.

    1997-01-01

    The calculation method presented here makes it possible to conduct profitability comparisons between annual and perennial crops and in addition take the planning situation into account. The method applied is a modified total step calculation. The difference between a traditional total step calculation and the modified version is the way in which payments and disbursements are taken into account over a period of several years. This is achieved by combining the present value method and the annuity method. The choice of interest rate has great bearing on the result in perennial calculations. The various components influencing the interest rate are analysed and factors relating to the establishment of the interest rate in different situations are described. The risk factor can be an important variable component of the interest rate calculation. Risk is also addressed from an approach in accordance with portfolio theory. The application of the methods sheds light on the profitability of Salix cultivation from the viewpoint of business economics, and also how different factors influence the profitability of Salix cultivation. Aspects studied are harvesting intervals, the importance of yield level, the competitiveness of Salix versus grain cultivation, the influence of income taxes on profitability etc. Methods for evaluation of activities concerning cultivation of a perennial crop are described and also involve the application of nitrogen fertilization to Salix cultivation. Studies have been performed using these methods to look into nitrogen fertilizer profitability in Salix cultivation during the first rotation period. Nitrogen fertilizer profitability has been investigated involving both production functions and cost calculations, taking the year fertilization into consideration. 72 refs., 2 figs., 52 tabs

  6. ENRAF gauge reference level calculations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Huber, J.H., Fluor Daniel Hanford

    1997-02-06

    This document describes the method for calculating reference levels for Enraf Series 854 Level Detectors as installed in the tank farms. The reference level calculation for each installed level gauge is contained herein.

  7. HEU benchmark calculations and LEU preliminary calculations for IRR-1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Caner, M.; Shapira, M.; Bettan, M.; Nagler, A.; Gilat, J.

    2004-01-01

    We performed neutronics calculations for the Soreq Research Reactor, IRR-1. The calculations were done for the purpose of upgrading and benchmarking our codes and methods. The codes used were mainly WIMS-D/4 for cell calculations and the three dimensional diffusion code CITATION for full core calculations. The experimental flux was obtained by gold wire activation methods and compared with our calculated flux profile. The IRR-1 is loaded with highly enriched uranium fuel assemblies, of the plate type. In the framework of preparation for conversion to low enrichment fuel, additional calculations were done assuming the presence of LEU fresh fuel. In these preliminary calculations we investigated the effect on the criticality and flux distributions of the increase of U-238 loading, and the corresponding uranium density.(author)

  8. MCNP and OMEGA criticality calculations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Seifert, E.

    1998-04-01

    The reliability of OMEGA criticality calculations is shown by a comparison with calculations by the validated and widely used Monte Carlo code MCNP. The criticality of 16 assemblies with uranium as fissionable is calculated with the codes MCNP (Version 4A, ENDF/B-V cross sections), MCNP (Version 4B, ENDF/B-VI cross sections), and OMEGA. Identical calculation models are used for the three codes. The results are compared mutually and with the experimental criticality of the assemblies. (orig.)

  9. CALCULATION OF LASER CUTTING COSTS

    OpenAIRE

    Bogdan Nedic; Milan Eric; Marijana Aleksijevic

    2016-01-01

    The paper presents description methods of metal cutting and calculation of treatment costs based on model that is developed on Faculty of mechanical engineering in Kragujevac. Based on systematization and analysis of large number of calculation models of cutting with unconventional methods, mathematical model is derived, which is used for creating a software for calculation costs of metal cutting. Software solution enables resolving the problem of calculating the cost of laser cutting, compar...

  10. Transient anisotropic magnetic field calculation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jesenik, Marko; Gorican, Viktor; Trlep, Mladen; Hamler, Anton; Stumberger, Bojan

    2006-01-01

    For anisotropic magnetic material, nonlinear magnetic characteristics of the material are described with magnetization curves for different magnetization directions. The paper presents transient finite element calculation of the magnetic field in the anisotropic magnetic material based on the measured magnetization curves for different magnetization directions. For the verification of the calculation method some results of the calculation are compared with the measurement

  11. Nuclear risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Levenson, M.

    1989-01-01

    The title of our session, Nuclear Risk Versus Other Power Options, is provocative. It is also a title with different meanings to different people. To the utility chief executive officer, nuclear power is a high-risk financial undertaking because of political and economic barriers to cost recovery. To the utility dispatcher, it is a high-risk future power source since plant completion and start-up dates can be delayed for very long times due to uncertain legal and political issues. To the environmentalist, concerned about global effects such as greenhouse and acid rain, nuclear power is a relatively low risk energy source. To the financial people, nuclear power is a cash cow turned sour because of uncertainties as to what new plants will cost and whether they will even be allowed to operate. The statistics on risk are known and the results of probability risk assessment calculations of risks are known. The challenge is not to make nuclear power safer, it is already one of the safest, if not the safest, source of power currently available. The challenge is to find a way to communicate this to the public

  12. Assessment of cardiovascular risk.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Cooney, Marie Therese

    2010-10-01

    Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the most common cause of death worldwide. Usually atherosclerosis is caused by the combined effects of multiple risk factors. For this reason, most guidelines on the prevention of CVD stress the assessment of total CVD risk. The most intensive risk factor modification can then be directed towards the individuals who will derive the greatest benefit. To assist the clinician in calculating the effects of these multiple interacting risk factors, a number of risk estimation systems have been developed. This review address several issues regarding total CVD risk assessment: Why should total CVD risk be assessed? What risk estimation systems are available? How well do these systems estimate risk? What are the advantages and disadvantages of the current systems? What are the current limitations of risk estimation systems and how can they be resolved? What new developments have occurred in CVD risk estimation?

  13. Invert Effective Thermal Conductivity Calculation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    M.J. Anderson; H.M. Wade; T.L. Mitchell

    2000-01-01

    The objective of this calculation is to evaluate the temperature-dependent effective thermal conductivities of a repository-emplaced invert steel set and surrounding ballast material. The scope of this calculation analyzes a ballast-material thermal conductivity range of 0.10 to 0.70 W/m · K, a transverse beam spacing range of 0.75 to 1.50 meters, and beam compositions of A 516 carbon steel and plain carbon steel. Results from this calculation are intended to support calculations that identify waste package and repository thermal characteristics for Site Recommendation (SR). This calculation was developed by Waste Package Department (WPD) under Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management (OCRWM) procedure AP-3.12Q, Revision 1, ICN 0, Calculations

  14. Global nuclear-structure calculations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moeller, P.; Nix, J.R.

    1990-01-01

    The revival of interest in nuclear ground-state octupole deformations that occurred in the 1980's was stimulated by observations in 1980 of particularly large deviations between calculated and experimental masses in the Ra region, in a global calculation of nuclear ground-state masses. By minimizing the total potential energy with respect to octupole shape degrees of freedom in addition to ε 2 and ε 4 used originally, a vastly improved agreement between calculated and experimental masses was obtained. To study the global behavior and interrelationships between other nuclear properties, we calculate nuclear ground-state masses, spins, pairing gaps and Β-decay and half-lives and compare the results to experimental qualities. The calculations are based on the macroscopic-microscopic approach, with the microscopic contributions calculated in a folded-Yukawa single-particle potential

  15. CALCULATION OF LASER CUTTING COSTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bogdan Nedic

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents description methods of metal cutting and calculation of treatment costs based on model that is developed on Faculty of mechanical engineering in Kragujevac. Based on systematization and analysis of large number of calculation models of cutting with unconventional methods, mathematical model is derived, which is used for creating a software for calculation costs of metal cutting. Software solution enables resolving the problem of calculating the cost of laser cutting, comparison' of costs made by other unconventional methods and provides documentation that consists of reports on estimated costs.

  16. Calculation of Rydberg interaction potentials

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Weber, Sebastian; Tresp, Christoph; Menke, Henri

    2017-01-01

    for calculating the required electric multipole moments and the inclusion of electromagnetic fields with arbitrary direction. We focus specifically on symmetry arguments and selection rules, which greatly reduce the size of the Hamiltonian matrix, enabling the direct diagonalization of the Hamiltonian up...... to higher multipole orders on a desktop computer. Finally, we present example calculations showing the relevance of the full interaction calculation to current experiments. Our software for calculating Rydberg potentials including all features discussed in this tutorial is available as open source....

  17. Risk management for whales

    OpenAIRE

    Cont, R; Wagalath, L

    2016-01-01

    We propose framework for modeling portfolio risk which integrates market risk with liquidation costs which may arise in stress scenarios. Our model provides a systematic method for computing liquidation-adjusted risk measures for a portfolio. Calculation of Liquidation-adjusted VaR (LVaR) for sample portfolios reveals a substantial impact of liquidation costs on portfolio risk for portfolios with large concentrated positions.

  18. Calculators

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... ounces of regular beer, 5 ounces of table wine, or 1.5 ounces of 80-proof distilled spirits. Distilled spirits include vodka, whiskey, gin, rum, and ... is 5% alcohol by volume (alc/vol), table wine is about 12% alc/vol, and straight 80-proof distilled spirits is 40% alc/vol. The percent alcohol by ...

  19. Risk and risk acceptance by society

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Statt, C.

    1977-01-01

    Various dimensions of risk are identified which relate to the manner in which risk is perceived and evaluated, and several self-consistent risk characteristics are explored. Factors which are thought to influence the perception of risk include the degree of personal control over the risk, the potential of episodic events, and the probable severity of injury if a risk event occurs. Risk-benefit analysis can be applied to three problems: the allocation of resources for safety expenditures, the setting of standards, and societal risk taking decisions. Calculations of benefit are needed for the third area of application, methods for the other two frequently do not require such a measure. (orig./RW) [de

  20. Thyroid Cancer Risk Assessment Tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    The R package thyroid implements a risk prediction model developed by NCI researchers to calculate the absolute risk of developing a second primary thyroid cancer (SPTC) in individuals who were diagnosed with a cancer during their childhood.

  1. Core calculational techniques and procedures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Romano, J.J.

    1977-10-01

    Described are the procedures and techniques employed by B and W in core design analyses of power peaking, control rod worths, and reactivity coefficients. Major emphasis has been placed on current calculational tools and the most frequently performed calculations over the operating power range

  2. Economic calculation in socialist countries

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ellman, M.; Durlauf, S.N.; Blume, L.E.

    2008-01-01

    In the 1930s, when the classical socialist system emerged, economic decisions were based not on detailed and precise economic methods of calculation but on rough and ready political methods. An important method of economic calculation - particularly in the post-Stalin period - was that of

  3. Calculation of Spectra of Solids:

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lindgård, Per-Anker

    1975-01-01

    The Gilat-Raubenheimer method simplified to tetrahedron division is used to calculate the real and imaginary part of the dynamical response function for electrons. A frequency expansion for the real part is discussed. The Lindhard function is calculated as a test for numerical accuracy...

  4. Calculator. Owning a Small Business.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parma City School District, OH.

    Seven activities are presented in this student workbook designed for an exploration of small business ownership and the use of the calculator in this career. Included are simulated situations in which students must use a calculator to compute property taxes; estimate payroll taxes and franchise taxes; compute pricing, approximate salaries,…

  5. Shielding calculational system for plutonium

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zimmerman, M.G.; Thomsen, D.H.

    1975-08-01

    A computer calculational system has been developed and assembled specifically for calculating dose rates in AEC plutonium fabrication facilities. The system consists of two computer codes and all nuclear data necessary for calculation of neutron and gamma dose rates from plutonium. The codes include the multigroup version of the Battelle Monte Carlo code for solution of general neutron and gamma shielding problems and the PUSHLD code for solution of shielding problems where low energy gamma and x-rays are important. The nuclear data consists of built in neutron and gamma yields and spectra for various plutonium compounds, an automatic calculation of age effects and all cross-sections commonly used. Experimental correlations have been performed to verify portions of the calculational system. (23 tables, 7 figs, 16 refs) (U.S.)

  6. Closure and Sealing Design Calculation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    T. Lahnalampi; J. Case

    2005-01-01

    The purpose of the ''Closure and Sealing Design Calculation'' is to illustrate closure and sealing methods for sealing shafts, ramps, and identify boreholes that require sealing in order to limit the potential of water infiltration. In addition, this calculation will provide a description of the magma that can reduce the consequences of an igneous event intersecting the repository. This calculation will also include a listing of the project requirements related to closure and sealing. The scope of this calculation is to: summarize applicable project requirements and codes relating to backfilling nonemplacement openings, removal of uncommitted materials from the subsurface, installation of drip shields, and erecting monuments; compile an inventory of boreholes that are found in the area of the subsurface repository; describe the magma bulkhead feature and location; and include figures for the proposed shaft and ramp seals. The objective of this calculation is to: categorize the boreholes for sealing by depth and proximity to the subsurface repository; develop drawing figures which show the location and geometry for the magma bulkhead; include the shaft seal figures and a proposed construction sequence; and include the ramp seal figure and a proposed construction sequence. The intent of this closure and sealing calculation is to support the License Application by providing a description of the closure and sealing methods for the Safety Analysis Report. The closure and sealing calculation will also provide input for Post Closure Activities by describing the location of the magma bulkhead. This calculation is limited to describing the final configuration of the sealing and backfill systems for the underground area. The methods and procedures used to place the backfill and remove uncommitted materials (such as concrete) from the repository and detailed design of the magma bulkhead will be the subject of separate analyses or calculations. Post-closure monitoring will not

  7. How Suitable Are Registry Data for Recurrence Risk Calculations?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ellesøe, Sabrina Gade; Jensen, Anders Boeck; Ängquist, Lars Henrik

    2016-01-01

    if registry data are used indiscriminately. Here, we investigated the consequences of misclassifications for the RRR using validated diagnoses on Danish patients with familial CHD. METHODS: Danish citizens are assigned a civil registration number (CPR number) at birth or immigration, which acts as a unique...... of the PPVs of diagnoses in the Danish registries, and from this, we deduced the false discovery rate (FDR). To measure the consequences on the RRR, the FDR was applied to a simulated data set with true RRR values of 2 and 10. RESULTS: We validated diagnoses of 2,442 patients from 1,593 families. Of these...

  8. Aplicación de una medida de riesgo coherente para el cálculo de la prima de riesgo en un seguro de rentas = Application of a coherent risk measure in the price calculation of an income insurance (annuities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Montserrat Hernández Solís

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Resumen Una práctica común que realizan las entidades aseguradoras es la de modificar las tasas de mortalidad instantánea al aplicar el principio de prima neta con el fin de hacer frente a las desviaciones desfavorables de la siniestralidad. Este documento proporciona una respuesta matemática a esta cuestión mediante la aplicación de la función de distorsión de potencia de Wang. Tanto la prima neta y la función de distorsión de Wang son medidas de riesgo coherentes, siendo este último aplicado por primera vez en el campo delos seguros de vida. Utilizando las leyes de Gompertz y Makeham primero calculamos la prima a nivel general y en una segunda parte, se aplica el principio de cálculo de la prima basado en función de distorsión de potencia de Wang para calcular el recargo sobre la prima de riesgo ajustada. El precio de prima única de riesgo se ha aplicado a una forma de cobertura de seguro de supervivencia, el seguro de rentas. La principal conclusión que puede extraerse es que mediante el uso de la función de distorsión, la nueva tasa instantánea de mortalidad es directamente proporcional a un múltiplo, que es justamente el exponente de esta función y hace que el riesgo de longevidad sea mayor. Esta es la razón por la prima de riesgo ajustada es superior a la prima neta. Abstract Modification of instantaneous mortality rates when applying the net premium principle in order to cope with unfavorable deviations in claims, is common practice carried out by insurance companies. This paper provides a mathematical answer to this matter by applying Wang’s power distortion function. Both net premium and Wang’s distortion function are coherent risk measures, the latter being first applied to the field of life insurance. Using the Gompertz and Makeham laws we first calculate the premium at a general level and in a second part, the principle of premium calculation based on Wang´s power distortion function is applied to calculate

  9. Application of a coherent risk measure in the price calculation of an income insurance (annuities = Aplicación de una medida de riesgo coherente para el cálculo de la prima de riesgo en un seguro de rentas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Montserrat Hernández Solís

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Una práctica común que realizan las entidades aseguradoras es la de modificar las tasas de mortalidad instantánea al aplicar el principio de prima neta con el fin de hacer frente a las desviaciones desfavorables de la siniestralidad. Este documento proporciona una respuesta matemática a esta cuestión mediante la aplicación de la función de distorsión de potencia de Wang. Tanto la prima neta y la función de distorsión de Wang son medidas de riesgo coherentes, siendo este último aplicado por primera vez en el campo delos seguros de vida.Utilizando las leyes de Gompertz y Makeham primero calculamos la prima a nivel general y en una segunda parte, se aplica el principio de cálculo de la prima basado en función de distorsión de potencia de Wang para calcular el recargo sobre la prima de riesgo ajustada. El precio de prima única de riesgo se ha aplicado a una forma de cobertura de seguro de supervivencia, el seguro de rentas.La principal conclusión que puede extraerse es que mediante el uso de la función de distorsión, la nueva tasa instantánea de mortalidad es directamente proporcional a un múltiplo, que es justamente el exponente de esta función y hace que el riesgo de longevidad sea mayor. Esta es la razón por la prima de riesgo ajustada es superior a la prima neta.Modification of instantaneous mortality rates when applying the net premium principle in order to cope with unfavorable deviations in claims, is common practice carried out by insurance companies. This paper provides a mathematical answer to this matter by applying Wang’s power distortion function. Both net premium and Wang’s distortion function are coherent risk measures, the latter being first applied to the field of life insurance.Using the Gompertz and Makeham laws we first calculate the premium at a general level and in a second part, the principle of premium calculation based on Wang´s power distortion function is applied to calculate the adjusted risk

  10. Differences in absorbed doses at risk organs and target tumoral of planning(PTV) in lung treatments using two algorithms of different calculations; Diferencias en las dosis absorbidas en organos de riesgo y volumen tumoral de planificacion (PTV) en tratamientos de pulmon usando dos algoritmos de calculo diferentes: pencil beam y collpased cone

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Uruena Llinares, A.; Santos Rubio, A.; Luis Simon, F. J.; Sanchez Carmona, G.; Herrador Cordoba, M.

    2006-07-01

    The objective of this paper is to compare, in thirty treatments for lung cancer,the absorbed doses at risk organs and target volumes obtained between the two used algorithms of calculation of our treatment planning system Oncentra Masterplan, that is, Pencil Beams vs Collapsed Cone. For it we use a set of measured indicators (D1 and D99 of tumor volume, V20 of lung, homogeneity index defined as (D5-D95)/D prescribed, and others). Analysing the dta, making a descriptor analysis of the results, and applying the non parametric test of the ranks with sign of Wilcoxon we find that the use of Pencil Beam algorithm underestimates the dose in the zone of the PTV including regions of low density as well as the values of maximum dose in spine cord. So, we conclude that in those treatments in which the spine dose is near the maximum permissible limit or those in which the PTV it includes a zone with pulmonary tissue must be used the Collapse Cone algorithm systematically and in any case an analysis must become to choose between time and precision in the calculation for both algorithms. (Authors)

  11. Reactor core performance calculating device

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tominaga, Kenji; Bando, Masaru; Sano, Hiroki; Maruyama, Hiromi.

    1995-01-01

    The device of the present invention can calculate a power distribution efficiently at high speed by a plurality of calculation means while taking an amount of the reactor state into consideration. Namely, an input device takes data from a measuring device for the amount of the reactor core state such as a large number of neutron detectors disposed in the reactor core for monitoring the reactor state during operation. An input data distribution device comprises a state recognition section and a data distribution section. The state recognition section recognizes the kind and amount of the inputted data and information of the calculation means. The data distribution section analyzes the characteristic of the inputted data, divides them into a several groups, allocates them to each of the calculation means for the purpose of calculating the reactor core performance efficiently at high speed based on the information from the state recognition section. A plurality of the calculation means calculate power distribution of each of regions based on the allocated inputted data, to determine the power distribution of the entire reactor core. As a result, the reactor core can be evaluated at high accuracy and at high speed irrespective of the whole reactor core or partial region. (I.S.)

  12. Alaska Village Electric Load Calculator

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Devine, M.; Baring-Gould, E. I.

    2004-10-01

    As part of designing a village electric power system, the present and future electric loads must be defined, including both seasonal and daily usage patterns. However, in many cases, detailed electric load information is not readily available. NREL developed the Alaska Village Electric Load Calculator to help estimate the electricity requirements in a village given basic information about the types of facilities located within the community. The purpose of this report is to explain how the load calculator was developed and to provide instructions on its use so that organizations can then use this model to calculate expected electrical energy usage.

  13. Reactor calculations and nuclear information

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lang, D.W.

    1977-12-01

    The relationship of sets of nuclear parameters and the macroscopic reactor quantities that can be calculated from them is examined. The framework of the study is similar to that of Usachev and Bobkov. The analysis is generalised and some properties required by common sense are demonstrated. The form of calculation permits revision of the parameter set. It is argued that any discrepancy between a calculation and measurement of a macroscopic quantity is more useful when applied directly to prediction of other macroscopic quantities than to revision of the parameter set. The mathematical technique outlined is seen to describe common engineering practice. (Author)

  14. Practical astronomy with your calculator

    CERN Document Server

    Duffett-Smith, Peter

    1989-01-01

    Practical Astronomy with your Calculator, first published in 1979, has enjoyed immense success. The author's clear and easy to follow routines enable you to solve a variety of practical and recreational problems in astronomy using a scientific calculator. Mathematical complexity is kept firmly in the background, leaving just the elements necessary for swiftly making calculations. The major topics are: time, coordinate systems, the Sun, the planetary system, binary stars, the Moon, and eclipses. In the third edition there are entirely new sections on generalised coordinate transformations, nutr

  15. Procedures for Calculating Residential Dehumidification Loads

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Winkler, Jon [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Booten, Chuck [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2016-06-01

    Residential building codes and voluntary labeling programs are continually increasing the energy efficiency requirements of residential buildings. Improving a building's thermal enclosure and installing energy-efficient appliances and lighting can result in significant reductions in sensible cooling loads leading to smaller air conditioners and shorter cooling seasons. However due to fresh air ventilation requirements and internal gains, latent cooling loads are not reduced by the same proportion. Thus, it's becoming more challenging for conventional cooling equipment to control indoor humidity at part-load cooling conditions and using conventional cooling equipment in a non-conventional building poses the potential risk of high indoor humidity. The objective of this project was to investigate the impact the chosen design condition has on the calculated part-load cooling moisture load, and compare calculated moisture loads and the required dehumidification capacity to whole-building simulations. Procedures for sizing whole-house supplemental dehumidification equipment have yet to be formalized; however minor modifications to current Air-Conditioner Contractors of America (ACCA) Manual J load calculation procedures are appropriate for calculating residential part-load cooling moisture loads. Though ASHRAE 1% DP design conditions are commonly used to determine the dehumidification requirements for commercial buildings, an appropriate DP design condition for residential buildings has not been investigated. Two methods for sizing supplemental dehumidification equipment were developed and tested. The first method closely followed Manual J cooling load calculations; whereas the second method made more conservative assumptions impacting both sensible and latent loads.

  16. Risk measurement with equivalent utility principles

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Denuit, M.; Dhaene, J.; Goovaerts, M.; Kaas, R.; Laeven, R.

    2006-01-01

    Risk measures have been studied for several decades in the actuarial literature, where they appeared under the guise of premium calculation principles. Risk measures and properties that risk measures should satisfy have recently received considerable attention in the financial mathematics

  17. Calculation of pion form factor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vahedi, N.; Amirarjomand, S.

    1975-09-01

    The pion form factor is calculated using the structure function Wsub(2), which incorporates kinematical constraints, threshold behaviour and scaling. The Bloom-Gilman sum rule is used and only the two leading Regge trajectories are taken into account

  18. Landfill Gas Energy Benefits Calculator

    Science.gov (United States)

    This page contains the LFG Energy Benefits Calculator to estimate direct, avoided, and total greenhouse gas reductions, as well as environmental and energy benefits, for a landfill gas energy project.

  19. Calculate Your Body Mass Index

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Can! ) Health Professional Resources Calculate Your Body Mass Index Body mass index (BMI) is a measure of body fat based ... Health Information Email Alerts Jobs and Careers Site Index About NHLBI National Institute of Health Department of ...

  20. Transfer Area Mechanical Handling Calculation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dianda, B.

    2004-01-01

    This calculation is intended to support the License Application (LA) submittal of December 2004, in accordance with the directive given by DOE correspondence received on the 27th of January 2004 entitled: ''Authorization for Bechtel SAX Company L.L. C. to Include a Bare Fuel Handling Facility and Increased Aging Capacity in the License Application, Contract Number DE-AC--28-01R W12101'' (Arthur, W.J., I11 2004). This correspondence was appended by further Correspondence received on the 19th of February 2004 entitled: ''Technical Direction to Bechtel SAIC Company L.L. C. for Surface Facility Improvements, Contract Number DE-AC--28-OIRW12101; TDL No. 04-024'' (BSC 2004a). These documents give the authorization for a Fuel Handling Facility to be included in the baseline. The purpose of this calculation is to establish preliminary bounding equipment envelopes and weights for the Fuel Handling Facility (FHF) transfer areas equipment. This calculation provides preliminary information only to support development of facility layouts and preliminary load calculations. The limitations of this preliminary calculation lie within the assumptions of section 5 , as this calculation is part of an evolutionary design process. It is intended that this calculation is superseded as the design advances to reflect information necessary to support License Application. The design choices outlined within this calculation represent a demonstration of feasibility and may or may not be included in the completed design. This calculation provides preliminary weight, dimensional envelope, and equipment position in building for the purposes of defining interface variables. This calculation identifies and sizes major equipment and assemblies that dictate overall equipment dimensions and facility interfaces. Sizing of components is based on the selection of commercially available products, where applicable. This is not a specific recommendation for the future use of these components or their

  1. CONTAIN calculations; CONTAIN-Rechnungen

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Scholtyssek, W.

    1995-08-01

    In the first phase of a benchmark comparison, the CONTAIN code was used to calculate an assumed EPR accident `medium-sized leak in the cold leg`, especially for the first two days after initiation of the accident. The results for global characteristics compare well with those of FIPLOC, MELCOR and WAVCO calculations, if the same materials data are used as input. However, significant differences show up for local quantities such as flows through leakages. (orig.)

  2. Numerical calculations near spatial infinity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zenginoglu, Anil

    2007-01-01

    After describing in short some problems and methods regarding the smoothness of null infinity for isolated systems, I present numerical calculations in which both spatial and null infinity can be studied. The reduced conformal field equations based on the conformal Gauss gauge allow us in spherical symmetry to calculate numerically the entire Schwarzschild-Kruskal spacetime in a smooth way including spacelike, null and timelike infinity and the domain close to the singularity

  3. Calculating radiation exposure and dose

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hondros, J.

    1987-01-01

    This paper discusses the methods and procedures used to calculate the radiation exposures and radiation doses to designated employees of the Olympic Dam Project. Each of the three major exposure pathways are examined. These are: gamma irradiation, radon daughter inhalation and radioactive dust inhalation. A further section presents ICRP methodology for combining individual pathway exposures to give a total dose figure. Computer programs used for calculations and data storage are also presented briefly

  4. Calculation of Rydberg interaction potentials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weber, Sebastian; Büchler, Hans Peter; Tresp, Christoph; Urvoy, Alban; Hofferberth, Sebastian; Menke, Henri; Firstenberg, Ofer

    2017-01-01

    The strong interaction between individual Rydberg atoms provides a powerful tool exploited in an ever-growing range of applications in quantum information science, quantum simulation and ultracold chemistry. One hallmark of the Rydberg interaction is that both its strength and angular dependence can be fine-tuned with great flexibility by choosing appropriate Rydberg states and applying external electric and magnetic fields. More and more experiments are probing this interaction at short atomic distances or with such high precision that perturbative calculations as well as restrictions to the leading dipole–dipole interaction term are no longer sufficient. In this tutorial, we review all relevant aspects of the full calculation of Rydberg interaction potentials. We discuss the derivation of the interaction Hamiltonian from the electrostatic multipole expansion, numerical and analytical methods for calculating the required electric multipole moments and the inclusion of electromagnetic fields with arbitrary direction. We focus specifically on symmetry arguments and selection rules, which greatly reduce the size of the Hamiltonian matrix, enabling the direct diagonalization of the Hamiltonian up to higher multipole orders on a desktop computer. Finally, we present example calculations showing the relevance of the full interaction calculation to current experiments. Our software for calculating Rydberg potentials including all features discussed in this tutorial is available as open source. (tutorial)

  5. Mordred: a molecular descriptor calculator.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moriwaki, Hirotomo; Tian, Yu-Shi; Kawashita, Norihito; Takagi, Tatsuya

    2018-02-06

    Molecular descriptors are widely employed to present molecular characteristics in cheminformatics. Various molecular-descriptor-calculation software programs have been developed. However, users of those programs must contend with several issues, including software bugs, insufficient update frequencies, and software licensing constraints. To address these issues, we propose Mordred, a developed descriptor-calculation software application that can calculate more than 1800 two- and three-dimensional descriptors. It is freely available via GitHub. Mordred can be easily installed and used in the command line interface, as a web application, or as a high-flexibility Python package on all major platforms (Windows, Linux, and macOS). Performance benchmark results show that Mordred is at least twice as fast as the well-known PaDEL-Descriptor and it can calculate descriptors for large molecules, which cannot be accomplished by other software. Owing to its good performance, convenience, number of descriptors, and a lax licensing constraint, Mordred is a promising choice of molecular descriptor calculation software that can be utilized for cheminformatics studies, such as those on quantitative structure-property relationships.

  6. Propagation calculation for reactor cases

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yang Yanhua [School of Power and Energy Engineering, Shanghai Jiao Tong Univ., Shanghai (China); Moriyama, K.; Maruyama, Y.; Nakamura, H.; Hashimoto, K. [Japan Atomic Energy Research Inst., Tokai, Ibaraki (Japan). Tokai Research Establishment

    2000-11-01

    The propagation of steam explosion for real reactor geometry and conditions are investigated by using the computer code JASMINE-pro. The ex-vessel steam explosion is considered, which is described as follow: during the accident of reactor core meltdown, the molten core melts a hole at the bottom of reactor vessel and causes the higher temperature core fuel being leaked into the water pool below reactor vessel. During the melt-water mixing interaction process, the high temperature melt evaporates the cool water at an extreme high rate and might induce a steam explosion. A steam explosion could experience first the premixing phase and then the propagation explosion phase. For a propagation calculation, we should know the information about the initial fragmentation time, the total melt mass, premixing region size, initial void fraction and distribution of the melt volume fraction, and so on. All the initial conditions used in this calculation are based on analyses from some simple assumptions and the observation from the experiments. The results show that the most important parameter for the initial condition of this phase is the total mass and its initial distribution. This gives the requirement for a premixing calculation. On the other hand, for higher melt volume fraction case, the fragmentation is strong so that the local pressure can exceed over the EOS maximum pressure of the code, which lead to the incorrect calculation or divergence of the calculation. (Suetake, M.)

  7. Nuclear financial risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heising, C.D.; George, V.P.

    1986-01-01

    This study examines the economy-wide financial risk associated with reactor accidents as a result of various regulatory response options that might be imposed after a serious accident, including partial or complete nuclear moratoria. The authors find that such risks may be two to three times greater than the plant-specific financial risk estimates that have previously been calculated by others (ie 500 million (1985) dollars per reactor year versus 5 to 50 million dollars). (author)

  8. Calculation of magnetic hyperfine constants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bufaical, R.F.; Maffeo, B.; Brandi, H.S.

    1975-01-01

    The magnetic hyperfine constants of the V sub(K) center in CaF 2 , SrF 2 and BaF 2 have been calculated assuming a phenomenological model, based on the F 2 - 'central molucule', to describe the wavefunction of the defect. Calculations have shown that introduction of a small degree of covalence, between this central molecule and neighboring ions, is necessary to improve the electronic structure description of the defect. It was also shown that the results for the hyperfine constants are strongly dependent on the relaxations of the ions neighboring the central molecule; these relaxations have been determined by fitting the experimental data. The present results are compared with other previous calculations where similar and different theoretical methods have been used

  9. Parameters calculation of shielding experiment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gavazza, S.

    1986-02-01

    The radiation transport methodology comparing the calculated reactions and dose rates for neutrons and gama-rays, with experimental measurements obtained on iron shield, irradiated in the YAYOI reactor is evaluated. The ENDF/B-IV and VITAMIN-C libraries and the AMPX-II modular system, for cross sections generation collapsed by the ANISN code were used. The transport calculations were made using the DOT 3.5 code, adjusting the boundary iron shield source spectrum to the reactions and dose rates, measured at the beginning of shield. The neutron and gamma ray distributions calculated on the iron shield presented reasonable agreement with experimental measurements. An experimental arrangement using the IEA-R1 reactor to determine a shielding benchmark is proposed. (Author) [pt

  10. Insertion device calculations with mathematica

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carr, R. [Stanford Synchrotron Radiation Lab., CA (United States); Lidia, S. [Univ. of California, Davis, CA (United States)

    1995-02-01

    The design of accelerator insertion devices such as wigglers and undulators has usually been aided by numerical modeling on digital computers, using code in high level languages like Fortran. In the present era, there are higher level programming environments like IDL{reg_sign}, MatLab{reg_sign}, and Mathematica{reg_sign} in which these calculations may be performed by writing much less code, and in which standard mathematical techniques are very easily used. The authors present a suite of standard insertion device modeling routines in Mathematica to illustrate the new techniques. These routines include a simple way to generate magnetic fields using blocks of CSEM materials, trajectory solutions from the Lorentz force equations for given magnetic fields, Bessel function calculations of radiation for wigglers and undulators and general radiation calculations for undulators.

  11. PHEBUS-FPTO Benchmark calculations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shepherd, I.; Ball, A.; Trambauer, K.; Barbero, F.; Olivar Dominguez, F.; Herranz, L.; Biasi, L.; Fermandjian, J.; Hocke, K.

    1991-01-01

    This report summarizes a set of pre-test predictions made for the first Phebus-FP test, FPT-O. There were many different calculations, performed by various organizations and they represent the first attempt to calculate the whole experimental sequence, from bundle to containment. Quantitative agreement between the various calculations was not good but the particular models in the code responsible for disagreements were mostly identified. A consensus view was formed as to how the test would proceed. It was found that a successful execution of the test will require a different operating procedure than had been assumed here. Critical areas which require close attention are the need to devize a strategy for the power and flow in the bundle that takes account of uncertainties in the modelling and the shroud conductivity and the necessity to develop a reliable method to achieve the desired thermalhydraulic conditions in the containment

  12. Risk assessment and risk evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Niehaus, F.

    1978-01-01

    With the help of results of investigations and model calculations the risk of nuclear energy in routine operation is shown. In this context it is pointed out that the excellent operation results of reactors all over the world have led to the acceptability of risks from local loads no longer being in question. The attention of radiation protection is therefore focused on the emissions of long-living isotopes which collect in the atmosphere. With LWRs the risk of accidents is so minimal that statistical data is, and never will be available. One has to therefore fall back upon the so-called fault tree analyses. On the subject of risk evalution the author referred to a poll in Austria. From the result of this investigation one might conclude that nuclear energy serves as a crystallization point for a discussion of varying concepts for future development. More attention should be paid to this aspect from both sides, in order to objectify the further expansion of this source of energy. (orig./HP) [de

  13. Internal Dosimetric Calculations for Occupationally Exposed Workers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hussein, M.T.; Farag, H.I.

    2005-01-01

    The Internal radiation dosimetry calculations are very important to estimate the benefit and the risk of radiation in nuclear medicine field for both patient and worker. MIRD scheme and ICRP model have valid methods in this type of calculations. In this work, a new program called WIRDST the Workers Internal Radiation Dosimetry Simulation for Thyroid gland has been built up by using the Monte Carlo (MC) method to simulate the internal exposure of sodium iodide by inhalation for workers. The working conditions have been taken as the same as found in the hot laboratory of nuclear medicine unit in the National Cancer Institute in Cairo University. The point source equivalent model as a parameterization equation has developed newly by using the fitting model of MC method for uniform distribution of radioactive sodium iodide in the thyroid gland. This model is used for the first time in this type of calculation, and then applied on 3 D coordinates of mathematical geometry for the adult phantom of the reference man. The latest parameters (anatomical data and inhalation metabolic data) of ICRP pamphlets and recommendations have been used in this purpose. Moreover, the latest scheme for iodine decay mode and the latest geometry model for thyroid gland are used also. The results showed that the specific effective energy and the effective dose decrease from the thyroid gland to the nearest organs then decrease gradually until terminated in the organs that have large distance from the thyroid. The Annual Limit of Intake (ALI) has been calculated for a wide range of thyroid uptake (5%, 15%, 25%, 35%, 45%, and 55%) in addition to change of the working time order per week in one year. The results showed that the critical point of intake limits are decreased when the thyroid uptake is increased and/or the number of working time in the hot laboratory per week is increased

  14. Automatic calculations of electroweak processes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ishikawa, T.; Kawabata, S.; Kurihara, Y.; Shimizu, Y.; Kaneko, T.; Kato, K.; Tanaka, H.

    1996-01-01

    GRACE system is an excellent tool for calculating the cross section and for generating event of the elementary process automatically. However it is not always easy for beginners to use. An interactive version of GRACE is being developed so as to be a user friendly system. Since it works exactly in the same environment as PAW, all functions of PAW are available for handling any histogram information produced by GRACE. As its application the cross sections of all elementary processes with up to 5-body final states induced by e + e - interaction are going to be calculated and to be summarized as a catalogue. (author)

  15. Calculation methods in program CCRMN

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chonghai, Cai [Nankai Univ., Tianjin (China). Dept. of Physics; Qingbiao, Shen [Chinese Nuclear Data Center, Beijing, BJ (China)

    1996-06-01

    CCRMN is a program for calculating complex reactions of a medium-heavy nucleus with six light particles. In CCRMN, the incoming particles can be neutrons, protons, {sup 4}He, deuterons, tritons and {sup 3}He. the CCRMN code is constructed within the framework of the optical model, pre-equilibrium statistical theory based on the exciton model and the evaporation model. CCRMN is valid in 1{approx} MeV energy region, it can give correct results for optical model quantities and all kinds of reaction cross sections. This program has been applied in practical calculations and got reasonable results.

  16. Friction and wear calculation methods

    CERN Document Server

    Kragelsky, I V; Kombalov, V S

    1981-01-01

    Friction and Wear: Calculation Methods provides an introduction to the main theories of a new branch of mechanics known as """"contact interaction of solids in relative motion."""" This branch is closely bound up with other sciences, especially physics and chemistry. The book analyzes the nature of friction and wear, and some theoretical relationships that link the characteristics of the processes and the properties of the contacting bodies essential for practical application of the theories in calculating friction forces and wear values. The effect of the environment on friction and wear is a

  17. Selfconsistent calculations at finite temperatures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brack, M.; Quentin, P.

    1975-01-01

    Calculations have been done for the spherical nuclei 40 Ca, 208 Pb and the hypothetical superheavy nucleus with Z=114, A=298, as well as for the deformed nucleus 168 Yb. The temperature T was varied from zero up to 5 MeV. For T>3 MeV, some numerical problems arise in connection with the optimization of the basis when calculating deformed nuclei. However, at these high temperatures the occupation numbers in the continuum are sufficiently large so that the nucleus starts evaporating particles and no equilibrium state can be described. Results are obtained for excitation energies and entropies. (Auth.)

  18. Benchmark neutron porosity log calculations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Little, R.C.; Michael, M.; Verghese, K.; Gardner, R.P.

    1989-01-01

    Calculations have been made for a benchmark neutron porosity log problem with the general purpose Monte Carlo code MCNP and the specific purpose Monte Carlo code McDNL. For accuracy and timing comparison purposes the CRAY XMP and MicroVax II computers have been used with these codes. The CRAY has been used for an analog version of the MCNP code while the MicroVax II has been used for the optimized variance reduction versions of both codes. Results indicate that the two codes give the same results within calculated standard deviations. Comparisons are given and discussed for accuracy (precision) and computation times for the two codes

  19. Molecular calculations with B functions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Steinborn, E.O.; Homeier, H.H.H.; Ema, I.; Lopez, R.; Ramirez, G.

    2000-01-01

    A program for molecular calculations with B functions is reported and its performance is analyzed. All the one- and two-center integrals and the three-center nuclear attraction integrals are computed by direct procedures, using previously developed algorithms. The three- and four-center electron repulsion integrals are computed by means of Gaussian expansions of the B functions. A new procedure for obtaining these expansions is also reported. Some results on full molecular calculations are included to show the capabilities of the program and the quality of the B functions to represent the electronic functions in molecules

  20. Lattice calculations in gauge theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rebbi, C.

    1985-01-01

    The lattice formulation of quantum gauge theories is discussed as a viable technique for quantitative studies of nonperturbative effects in QCD. Evidence is presented to ascertain that whole classes of lattice actions produce a universal continuum limit. Discrepancies between numerical results from Monto Carlo simulations for the pure gauge system and for the system with gauge and quark fields are discussed. Numerical calculations for QCD require very substantial computational resources. The use of powerful vector processors of special purpose machines, in extending the scope and magnitude or the calculations is considered, and one may reasonably expect that in the near future good quantitative predictions will be obtained for QCD

  1. Coefficients calculations of conversion of cancer risk for occupational exposure using Monte Carlo simulations in cardiac procedures of interventionist radiology; Calculo de coeficientes de conversao de risco de cancer para exposicoes medicas e ocupacionais usando simulacoes Monte Carlo em procedimentos cardiacos de radiologia intervencionista

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Santos, William S.; Neves, Lucio P.; Perini, Ana P.; Caldas, Linda V.E., E-mail: wssantos@ipen.br, E-mail: lpneves@ipen.br, E-mail: aperini@ipen.br, E-mail: lcaldas@ipen.br [Instituto de Pesquisas Energeticas e Nucleares (IPEN/CNEN-SP), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil); Maia, Ana F., E-mail: afmaia@ufs.br [Universidade Federal de Sergipe (UFS), Sao Cristovao, SE (Brazil). Dept. de Fisica

    2014-07-01

    Cardiac procedures are among the most common procedures in interventional radiology (IR), and can lead to high medical and occupational exposures, as in most cases are procedures complex and long lasting. In this work, conversion coefficients (CC) for the risk of cancer, normalized by kerma area product (KAP) to the patient, cardiologist and nurse were calculated using Monte Carlo simulation. The patient and the cardiologist were represented by anthropomorphic simulators MESH, and the nurse by anthropomorphic phantom FASH. Simulators were incorporated into the code of Monte Carlo MCNPX. Two scenarios were created: in the first (1), lead curtain and protective equipment suspended were not included, and in the second (2) these devices were inserted. The radiographic parameters employed in Monte Carlo simulations were: tube voltage of 60 kVp and 120 kVp; filtration of the beam and 3,5 mmAl beam area of 10 x 10 cm{sup 2}. The average values of CCs to eight projections (in 10{sup -4} / Gy.cm{sup 2} were 1,2 for the patient, 2,6E-03 (scenario 1) and 4,9E-04 (scenario 2) for cardiologist and 5,2E-04 (scenario 1) and 4,0E-04 (Scenario 2) to the nurse. The results show a significant reduction in CCs for professionals, when the lead curtain and protective equipment suspended are employed. The evaluation method used in this work can provide important information on the risk of cancer patient and professional, and thus improve the protection of workers in cardiac procedures of RI.

  2. Development of My Footprint Calculator

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mummidisetti, Karthik

    The Environmental footprint is a very powerful tool that helps an individual to understand how their everyday activities are impacting environmental surroundings. Data shows that global climate change, which is a growing concern for nations all over the world, is already affecting humankind, plants and animals through raising ocean levels, droughts & desertification and changing weather patterns. In addition to a wide range of policy measures implemented by national and state governments, it is necessary for individuals to understand the impact that their lifestyle may have on their personal environmental footprint, and thus over the global climate change. "My Footprint Calculator" (myfootprintcalculator.com) has been designed to be one the simplest, yet comprehensive, web tools to help individuals calculate and understand their personal environmental impact. "My Footprint Calculator" is a website that queries users about their everyday habits and activities and calculates their personal impact on the environment. This website was re-designed to help users determine their environmental impact in various aspects of their lives ranging from transportation and recycling habits to water and energy usage with the addition of new features that will allow users to share their experiences and their best practices with other users interested in reducing their personal Environmental footprint. The collected data is stored in the database and a future goal of this work plans to analyze the collected data from all users (anonymously) for developing relevant trends and statistics.

  3. Calculations of nucleon structure functions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Signal, A.I.

    1990-01-01

    We present a method of calculating deep inelastic nucleon structure functions using bag model wavefunctions. Our method uses the Peierls - Yoccoz projection to form translation invariant bag states. We obtain the correct support for the structure functions and satisfy the positivity requirements for quark and anti-quark distribution functions. (orig.)

  4. Data Acquisition and Flux Calculations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rebmann, C.; Kolle, O; Heinesch, B

    2012-01-01

    In this chapter, the basic theory and the procedures used to obtain turbulent fluxes of energy, mass, and momentum with the eddy covariance technique will be detailed. This includes a description of data acquisition, pretreatment of high-frequency data and flux calculation....

  5. Ab Initio Calculations of Oxosulfatovanadates

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frøberg, Torben; Johansen, Helge

    1996-01-01

    Restricted Hartree-Fock and multi-configurational self-consistent-field calculations together with secondorder perturbation theory have been used to study the geometry, the electron density, and the electronicspectrum of (VO2SO4)-. A bidentate sulphate attachment to vanadium was found to be stabl...

  6. Coil protection calculator for TFTR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marsala, R.J.; Lawson, J.E.; Persing, R.G.; Senko, T.R.; Woolley, R.D.

    1989-01-01

    A new coil protection system (CPS) is being developed to replace the existing TFTR magnetic coil fault detector. The existing fault detector sacrifices TFTR operating capability for simplicity. The new CPS, when installed in October of 1988, will permit operation up to the actual coil stress limits parameters in real-time. The computation will be done in a microprocessor based Coil Protection Calculator (CPC) currently under construction at PPL. THe new CPC will allow TFTR to operate with higher plasma currents and will permit the optimization of pulse repetition rates. The CPC will provide real-time estimates of critical coil and bus temperatures and stresses based on real-time redundant measurements of coil currents, coil cooling water inlet temperature, and plasma current. The critical parameter calculations are compared to prespecified limits. If these limits are reached or exceeded, protection action will be initiated to a hard wired control system (HCS), which will shut down the power supplies. The CPC consists of a redundant VME based microprocessor system which will sample all input data and compute all stress quantities every ten milliseconds. Thermal calculations will be approximated every 10ms with an exact solution occurring every second. The CPC features continuous cross-checking of redundant input signal, automatic detection of internal failure modes, monitoring and recording of calculated results, and a quick, functional verification of performance via an internal test system. (author)

  7. Ab-initio ZORA calculations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Faas, S.; Snijders, Jaap; van Lenthe, J.H.; HernandezLaguna, A; Maruani, J; McWeeny, R; Wilson, S

    2000-01-01

    In this paper we present the first application of the ZORA (Zeroth Order Regular Approximation of the Dirac Fock equation) formalism in Ab Initio electronic structure calculations. The ZORA method, which has been tested previously in the context of Density Functional Theory, has been implemented in

  8. Introduction to calculations of recuperators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dollar, M.

    1977-01-01

    Physical principles of heat transfer between fluid under turbulent flow conditions and a wall of a duct are described. The methods of calculations of heat transfer coefficient and the theory of recuperative heat exchangers are presented. Numerical examples are given to illustrate the theory. (author)

  9. Photoproduction data for heating calculations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van der Marck, Steven C.; Koning, Arjan J.; Rochman, Dimitri

    2008-01-01

    For irradiations in a materials test reactor, the prediction of the amount of gamma heating in the reactor is important. Only a good predictive calculation will lead to an irradiation in which the specified temperatures are reached. The photons produced by fission product decay are often missing in spectrum calculations for a reactor, but the contribution of the photons can be computed effectively using engineering correlations for the amount of fission product decay and the ensuing photon spectrum. The prompt photons are usually calculated by a spectrum code based on the underlying nuclear data libraries. For most of the important nuclides, the nuclear data libraries contain data for the photon productions rates. However, there are still many nuclides for which the photon production data are missing, and some of these nuclides contribute to gamma heating. In this paper it is estimated what the contributions to heating are from photon production on nuclides such as 236 U, 238 Pu, 135 I, 135 Xe, 147 Pm, 148 Pm, 148m Pm, and 149 Sm. Also, simple arguments are given to judge the effect from photon production on all other (lumped) fission products, and from 28 Al decay. For all these calculations the High Flux Reactor is used as an example. (authors)

  10. Methods for magnetostatic field calculation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vorozhtsov, S.B.

    1984-01-01

    Two methods for magnetostatic field calculation: differential and integrat are considered. Both approaches are shown to have certain merits and drawbacks, choice of the method depend on the type of the solved problem. An opportunity of combination of these tWo methods in one algorithm (hybrid method) is considered

  11. Calculating zeros: Non-equilibrium free energy calculations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oostenbrink, Chris; Gunsteren, Wilfred F. van

    2006-01-01

    Free energy calculations on three model processes with theoretically known free energy changes have been performed using short simulation times. A comparison between equilibrium (thermodynamic integration) and non-equilibrium (fast growth) methods has been made in order to assess the accuracy and precision of these methods. The three processes have been chosen to represent processes often observed in biomolecular free energy calculations. They involve a redistribution of charges, the creation and annihilation of neutral particles and conformational changes. At very short overall simulation times, the thermodynamic integration approach using discrete steps is most accurate. More importantly, reasonable accuracy can be obtained using this method which seems independent of the overall simulation time. In cases where slow conformational changes play a role, fast growth simulations might have an advantage over discrete thermodynamic integration where sufficient sampling needs to be obtained at every λ-point, but only if the initial conformations do properly represent an equilibrium ensemble. From these three test cases practical lessons can be learned that will be applicable to biomolecular free energy calculations

  12. Mechanical calculation of heat exchangers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Osweiller, Francis.

    1977-01-01

    Many heat exchangers are still being dimensioned at the present time by means of the American TEMA code (Tubular Exchanger Manufacturers Association). The basic formula of this code often gives rise to significant tubular plate thicknesses which, apart from the cost of materials, involve significant machining. Some constructors have brought into use calculation methods that are more analytic so as to take into better consideration the mechanical phenomena which come into play in a heat exchanger. After a brief analysis of these methods it is shown, how the original TEMA formulations have changed to reach the present version and how this code has incorporated Gardner's results for treating exchangers with two fixed heads. A formal and numerical comparison is then made of the analytical and TEMA methods by attempting to highlight a code based on these methods or a computer calculation programme in relation to the TEMA code [fr

  13. CONTRIBUTION FOR MINING ATMOSPHERE CALCULATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Franica Trojanović

    1989-12-01

    Full Text Available Humid air is an unavoidable feature of mining atmosphere, which plays a significant role in defining the climate conditions as well as permitted circumstances for normal mining work. Saturated humid air prevents heat conduction from the human body by means of evaporation. Consequently, it is of primary interest in the mining practice to establish the relative air humidity either by means of direct or indirect methods. Percentage of water in the surrounding air may be determined in various procedures including tables, diagrams or particular calculations, where each technique has its specific advantages and disadvantages. Classical calculation is done according to Sprung's formula, in which case partial steam pressure should also be taken from the steam table. The new method without the use of diagram or tables, established on the functional relation of pressure and temperature on saturated line, is presented here for the first time (the paper is published in Croatian.

  14. The Collective Practice of Calculation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schrøder, Ida

    The calculation of costs plays an increasingly large role in the decision-making processes of public sector human service organizations. This has brought scholars of management accounting to investigate the relationship between caring professions and demands to make economic entities of the service...... productions as either a process of hybridization or conflict. With these approaches, though, they fail to interrogate the possibility that professional action might not be either the one or the other, but entail a broad variety of relationships between calculations and judgements. This paper elaborates...... and judgement to reach decisions to invest in social services. The line is not drawn between the two, but between the material arrangements that make decisions possible. This implies that the insisting on qualitatively based decisions gives the professionals agency to collectively engage in practical...

  15. Computer programs for lattice calculations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Keil, E.; Reich, K.H.

    1984-01-01

    The aim of the workshop was to find out whether some standardisation could be achieved for future work in this field. A certain amount of useful information was unearthed, and desirable features of a ''standard'' program emerged. Progress is not expected to be breathtaking, although participants (practically from all interested US, Canadian and European accelerator laboratories) agreed that the mathematics of the existing programs is more or less the same. Apart from the NIH (not invented here) effect, there is a - to quite some extent understandable - tendency to stay with a program one knows and to add to it if unavoidable rather than to start using a new one. Users of the well supported program TRANSPORT (designed for beam line calculations) would prefer to have it fully extended for lattice calculations (to some extent already possible now), while SYNCH users wish to see that program provided with a user-friendly input, rather than spending time and effort for mastering a new program

  16. Credit Risk Evaluation : Modeling - Analysis - Management

    OpenAIRE

    Wehrspohn, Uwe

    2002-01-01

    An analysis and further development of the building blocks of modern credit risk management: -Definitions of default -Estimation of default probabilities -Exposures -Recovery Rates -Pricing -Concepts of portfolio dependence -Time horizons for risk calculations -Quantification of portfolio risk -Estimation of risk measures -Portfolio analysis and portfolio improvement -Evaluation and comparison of credit risk models -Analytic portfolio loss distributions The thesis contributes to the evaluatio...

  17. Coil protection calculator for TFTR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marsala, R.J.; Woolley, R.D.

    1987-01-01

    A new coil protection calculator (CPC) is presented in this paper. It is now being developed for TFTR's magnetic field coils will replace the existing coil fault detector. The existing fault detector sacrifices TFTR operating capability for simplicity. The new CPC will permit operation up to the actual coil limits by accurately and continuously computing coil parameters in real-time. The improvement will allow TFTR to operate with higher plasma currents and will permit the optimization of pulse repetition rates

  18. Rotor calculations for neutron spectroscopy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gobert, G.

    1968-01-01

    The determination of stress in a rotating disk plane of symmetry normal to the axis of rotation has been studied by a number of investigators. In a recent paper Reich gives an operating process for an analytical solution in an asymmetric rotating disk. In the report we give the calculation of finite difference stress solutions applicable to the two rotating disks. The equations are then programmed for the 360.75 computer by Fortran methods concerning the rotors of choppers. (author) [fr

  19. Parallel plasma fluid turbulence calculations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leboeuf, J.N.; Carreras, B.A.; Charlton, L.A.; Drake, J.B.; Lynch, V.E.; Newman, D.E.; Sidikman, K.L.; Spong, D.A.

    1994-01-01

    The study of plasma turbulence and transport is a complex problem of critical importance for fusion-relevant plasmas. To this day, the fluid treatment of plasma dynamics is the best approach to realistic physics at the high resolution required for certain experimentally relevant calculations. Core and edge turbulence in a magnetic fusion device have been modeled using state-of-the-art, nonlinear, three-dimensional, initial-value fluid and gyrofluid codes. Parallel implementation of these models on diverse platforms--vector parallel (National Energy Research Supercomputer Center's CRAY Y-MP C90), massively parallel (Intel Paragon XP/S 35), and serial parallel (clusters of high-performance workstations using the Parallel Virtual Machine protocol)--offers a variety of paths to high resolution and significant improvements in real-time efficiency, each with its own advantages. The largest and most efficient calculations have been performed at the 200 Mword memory limit on the C90 in dedicated mode, where an overlap of 12 to 13 out of a maximum of 16 processors has been achieved with a gyrofluid model of core fluctuations. The richness of the physics captured by these calculations is commensurate with the increased resolution and efficiency and is limited only by the ingenuity brought to the analysis of the massive amounts of data generated

  20. Microcomputer generated pipe support calculations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hankinson, R.F.; Czarnowski, P.; Roemer, R.E.

    1991-01-01

    The cost and complexity of pipe support design has been a continuing challenge to the construction and modification of commercial nuclear facilities. Typically, pipe support design or qualification projects have required large numbers of engineers centrally located with access to mainframe computer facilities. Much engineering time has been spent repetitively performing a sequence of tasks to address complex design criteria and consolidating the results of calculations into documentation packages in accordance with strict quality requirements. The continuing challenges of cost and quality, the need for support engineering services at operating plant sites, and the substantial recent advances in microcomputer systems suggested that a stand-alone microcomputer pipe support calculation generator was feasible and had become a necessity for providing cost-effective and high quality pipe support engineering services to the industry. This paper outlines the preparation for, and the development of, an integrated pipe support design/evaluation software system which maintains all computer programs in the same environment, minimizes manual performance of standard or repetitive tasks, and generates a high quality calculation which is consistent and easily followed

  1. Calculational methods for lattice cells

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Askew, J.R.

    1980-01-01

    At the current stage of development, direct simulation of all the processes involved in the reactor to the degree of accuracy required is not an economic proposition, and this is achieved by progressive synthesis of models for parts of the full space/angle/energy neutron behaviour. The split between reactor and lattice calculations is one such simplification. Most reactors are constructed of repetitions of similar geometric units, the fuel elements, having broadly similar properties. Thus the provision of detailed predictions of their behaviour is an important step towards overall modelling. We shall be dealing with these lattice methods in this series of lectures, but will refer back from time to time to their relationship with overall reactor calculation The lattice cell is itself composed of somewhat similar sub-units, the fuel pins, and will itself often rely upon a further break down of modelling. Construction of a good model depends upon the identification, on physical and mathematical grounds, of the most helpful division of the calculation at this level

  2. Calculation of groundwater travel time

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arnett, R.C.; Sagar, B.; Baca, R.G.

    1984-12-01

    Pre-waste-emplacement groundwater travel time is one indicator of the isolation capability of the geologic system surrounding a repository. Two distinct modeling approaches exist for prediction of groundwater flow paths and travel times from the repository location to the designated accessible environment boundary. These two approaches are: (1) the deterministic approach which calculates a single value prediction of groundwater travel time based on average values for input parameters and (2) the stochastic approach which yields a distribution of possible groundwater travel times as a function of the nature and magnitude of uncertainties in the model inputs. The purposes of this report are to (1) document the theoretical (i.e., mathematical) basis used to calculate groundwater pathlines and travel times in a basalt system, (2) outline limitations and ranges of applicability of the deterministic modeling approach, and (3) explain the motivation for the use of the stochastic modeling approach currently being used to predict groundwater pathlines and travel times for the Hanford Site. Example calculations of groundwater travel times are presented to highlight and compare the differences between the deterministic and stochastic modeling approaches. 28 refs

  3. Improvement of the projection models for radiogenic cancer risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tong Jian

    2005-01-01

    Calculations of radiogenic cancer risk are based on the risk projection models for specific cancer sites. Improvement has been made for the parameters used in the previous models including introductions of mortality and morbidity risk coefficients, and age-/ gender-specific risk coefficients. These coefficients have been applied to calculate the radiogenic cancer risks for specific organs and radionuclides under different exposure scenarios. (authors)

  4. Calculation of dose distribution above contaminated soil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuroda, Junya; Tenzou, Hideki; Manabe, Seiya; Iwakura, Yukiko

    2017-07-01

    The purpose of this study was to assess the relationship between altitude and the distribution of the ambient dose rate in the air over soil decontamination area by using PHITS simulation code. The geometry configuration was 1000 m ×1000 m area and 1m in soil depth and 100m in altitude from the ground to simulate the area of residences or a school grounds. The contaminated region is supposed to be uniformly contaminated by Cs-137 γ radiation sources. The air dose distribution and space resolution was evaluated for flux of the gamma rays at each altitude, 1, 5, 10, and 20m. The effect of decontamination was calculated by defining sharpness S. S was the ratio of an average flux and a flux at the center of denomination area in each altitude. The suitable flight altitude of the drone is found to be less than 15m above a residence and 31m above a school grounds to confirm the decontamination effect. The calculation results can be a help to determine a flight planning of a drone to minimize the clash risk.

  5. Cognitive Reflection Versus Calculation in Decision Making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aleksandr eSinayev

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Scores on the three-item Cognitive Reflection Test (CRT have been linked with dual-system theory and normative decision making (Frederick, 2005. In particular, the CRT is thought to measure monitoring of System 1 intuitions such that, if cognitive reflection is high enough, intuitive errors will be detected and the problem will be solved. However, CRT items also require numeric ability to be answered correctly and it is unclear how much numeric ability vs. cognitive reflection contributes to better decision making. In two studies, CRT responses were used to calculate Cognitive Reflection and numeric ability; a numeracy scale was also administered. Numeric ability, measured on the CRT or the numeracy scale, accounted for the CRT’s ability to predict more normative decisions (a subscale of decision-making competence, incentivized measures of impatient and risk-averse choice, and self-reported financial outcomes; Cognitive Reflection contributed no independent predictive power. Results were similar whether the two abilities were modeled (Study 1 or calculated using proportions (Studies 1 and 2. These findings demonstrate numeric ability as a robust predictor of superior decision making across multiple tasks and outcomes. They also indicate that correlations of decision performance with the CRT are insufficient evidence to implicate overriding intuitions in the decision-making biases and outcomes we examined. Numeric ability appears to be the key mechanism instead.

  6. Cognitive reflection vs. calculation in decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sinayev, Aleksandr; Peters, Ellen

    2015-01-01

    Scores on the three-item Cognitive Reflection Test (CRT) have been linked with dual-system theory and normative decision making (Frederick, 2005). In particular, the CRT is thought to measure monitoring of System 1 intuitions such that, if cognitive reflection is high enough, intuitive errors will be detected and the problem will be solved. However, CRT items also require numeric ability to be answered correctly and it is unclear how much numeric ability vs. cognitive reflection contributes to better decision making. In two studies, CRT responses were used to calculate Cognitive Reflection and numeric ability; a numeracy scale was also administered. Numeric ability, measured on the CRT or the numeracy scale, accounted for the CRT's ability to predict more normative decisions (a subscale of decision-making competence, incentivized measures of impatient and risk-averse choice, and self-reported financial outcomes); Cognitive Reflection contributed no independent predictive power. Results were similar whether the two abilities were modeled (Study 1) or calculated using proportions (Studies 1 and 2). These findings demonstrate numeric ability as a robust predictor of superior decision making across multiple tasks and outcomes. They also indicate that correlations of decision performance with the CRT are insufficient evidence to implicate overriding intuitions in the decision-making biases and outcomes we examined. Numeric ability appears to be the key mechanism instead.

  7. Risk management

    OpenAIRE

    Mcmanus, John

    2009-01-01

    Few projects are completed on time, on budget, and to their original requirement or specifications. Focusing on what project managers need to know about risk in the pursuit of delivering projects, Risk Management covers key components of the risk management process and the software development process, as well as best practices for risk identification, risk planning, and risk analysis. The book examines risk planning, risk analysis responses to risk, the tracking and modelling of risks, intel...

  8. PLUTONIUM/HIGH-LEVEL VITRIFIED WASTE BDBE DOSE CALCULATION

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    J.A. Ziegler

    2000-11-20

    The purpose of this calculation is to provide a dose consequence analysis of high-level waste (HLW) consisting of plutonium immobilized in vitrified HLW to be handled at the proposed Monitored Geologic Repository at Yucca Mountain for a beyond design basis event (BDBE) under expected conditions using best estimate values for each calculation parameter. In addition to the dose calculation, a plutonium respirable particle size for dose calculation use is derived. The current concept for this waste form is plutonium disks enclosed in cans immobilized in canisters of vitrified HLW (i.e., glass). The plutonium inventory at risk used for this calculation is selected from Plutonium Immobilization Project Input for Yucca Mountain Total Systems Performance Assessment (Shaw 1999). The BDBE examined in this calculation is a nonmechanistic initiating event and the sequence of events that follow to cause a radiological release. This analysis will provide the radiological releases and dose consequences for a postulated BDBE. Results may be considered in other analyses to determine or modify the safety classification and quality assurance level of repository structures, systems, and components. This calculation uses best available technical information because the BDBE frequency is very low (i.e., less than 1.0E-6 events/year) and is not required for License Application for the Monitored Geologic Repository. The results of this calculation will not be used as part of a licensing or design basis.

  9. Nuclear data library in design calculation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hirano, Go; Kosaka, Shinya

    2006-01-01

    In core design calculation, nuclear data takes part as multi group cross section library during the assembly calculation, which is the first stage of a core design calculation. This report summarizes the multi group cross section libraries used in assembly calculations and also presents the methods adopted for resonance and assembly calculation. (author)

  10. Risk Analysis in Road Tunnels – Most Important Risk Indicators

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Berchtold, Florian; Knaust, Christian; Thöns, Sebastian

    2016-01-01

    Methodologies on fire risk analysis in road tunnels consider numerous factors affecting risks (risk indicators) and express the results by risk measures. But only few comprehensive studies on effects of risk indicators on risk measures are available. For this reason, this study quantifies...... the effects and highlights the most important risk indicators with the aim to support further developments in risk analysis. Therefore, a system model of a road tunnel was developed to determine the risk measures. The system model can be divided into three parts: the fire part connected to the fire model Fire...... Dynamics Simulator (FDS); the evacuation part connected to the evacuation model FDS+Evac; and the frequency part connected to a model to calculate the frequency of fires. This study shows that the parts of the system model (and their most important risk indicators) affect the risk measures in the following...

  11. Demand of Insurance under the Cost-of-Capital Premium Calculation Principle

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael Merz

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available We study the optimal insurance design problem. This is a risk sharing problem between an insured and an insurer. The main novelty in this paper is that we study this optimization problem under a risk-adjusted premium calculation principle for the insurance cover. This risk-adjusted premium calculation principle uses the cost-of-capital approach as it is suggested (and used by the regulator and the insurance industry.

  12. Calculation of gas turbine characteristic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mamaev, B. I.; Murashko, V. L.

    2016-04-01

    The reasons and regularities of vapor flow and turbine parameter variation depending on the total pressure drop rate π* and rotor rotation frequency n are studied, as exemplified by a two-stage compressor turbine of a power-generating gas turbine installation. The turbine characteristic is calculated in a wide range of mode parameters using the method in which analytical dependences provide high accuracy for the calculated flow output angle and different types of gas dynamic losses are determined with account of the influence of blade row geometry, blade surface roughness, angles, compressibility, Reynolds number, and flow turbulence. The method provides satisfactory agreement of results of calculation and turbine testing. In the design mode, the operation conditions for the blade rows are favorable, the flow output velocities are close to the optimal ones, the angles of incidence are small, and the flow "choking" modes (with respect to consumption) in the rows are absent. High performance and a nearly axial flow behind the turbine are obtained. Reduction of the rotor rotation frequency and variation of the pressure drop change the flow parameters, the parameters of the stages and the turbine, as well as the form of the characteristic. In particular, for decreased n, nonmonotonic variation of the second stage reactivity with increasing π* is observed. It is demonstrated that the turbine characteristic is mainly determined by the influence of the angles of incidence and the velocity at the output of the rows on the losses and the flow output angle. The account of the growing flow output angle due to the positive angle of incidence for decreased rotation frequencies results in a considerable change of the characteristic: poorer performance, redistribution of the pressure drop at the stages, and change of reactivities, growth of the turbine capacity, and change of the angle and flow velocity behind the turbine.

  13. Calculation of Rydberg interaction potentials

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Weber, Sebastian; Tresp, Christoph; Menke, Henri

    2017-01-01

    The strong interaction between individual Rydberg atoms provides a powerful tool exploited in an ever-growing range of applications in quantum information science, quantum simulation and ultracold chemistry. One hallmark of the Rydberg interaction is that both its strength and angular dependence...... for calculating the required electric multipole moments and the inclusion of electromagnetic fields with arbitrary direction. We focus specifically on symmetry arguments and selection rules, which greatly reduce the size of the Hamiltonian matrix, enabling the direct diagonalization of the Hamiltonian up...

  14. FIPRED Project - Experiments and calculations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ohai, D.; Dumitrescu, I.; Doca, C.; Meleg, T.; Benga, D.

    2009-01-01

    Full text: The FIPRED (Fission Products Release from Debris Bed) Project was developed by INR in the framework of EC FP6 SARNET (2004-2008) and will be continued in EC FP6 SARNET2 (2009-2013). The project objective is the evaluation of fission product release from debris bed resulted after reactor severe accident by natural UO 2 sintered pellets self disintegration by oxidation. A large experimental program was performed covering the main parameters influencing granulometric distribution of powders (fragments) resulted from UO 2 sintered pellets self disintegration by air oxidation. The paper presents experimental results obtained and material equation obtained by mathematical calculations. (authors)

  15. Perturbation calculations with Wilson loop

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peixoto Junior, L.B.

    1984-01-01

    We present perturbative calculations with the Wilson loop (WL). The dimensional regularization method is used with a special attention concerning to the problem of divergences in the WL expansion in second and fourth orders, in three and four dimensions. We show that the residue in the pole, in 4d, of the fourth order graphs contribution sum is important for the charge renormalization. We compute up to second order the exact expression of the WL, in three-dimensional gauge theories with topological mass as well as its assimptotic behaviour for small and large distances. the author [pt

  16. Symmetries applied to reactor calculations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Makai, M.

    1982-03-01

    Three problems of a reactor-calculational model are discussed with the help of symmetry considerations. 1/ A coarse mesh method applicable to any geometry is derived. It is shown that the coarse mesh solution can be constructed from a few standard boundary value problems. 2/ A second stage homogenization method is given based on the Bloch theorem. This ensures the continuity of the current and the flux at the boundary. 3/ The validity of the micro-macro separation is shown for heterogeneous lattices. A formula for the neutron density is derived for cell homogenization. (author)

  17. Criticality calculations for safety analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vellozo, S.O.

    1981-01-01

    Criticality studies in uranium nitrate and plutonium nitrate aqueous solutions were done. For uranium compound three basic computer codes are used: GAMTEC-II, DTF-IV, KENO-IV. Water was used as refletor and the results obtained with the different computer codes were analyzed and compared with the 'Handbuck zur Kriticalitat'. The cross sections and the cylindrical geometry were generated by Gamtec-II computer code. In the second compound the thickness of the recipient with plutonium nitrate are used with rectangular geometry and concret reflector. The effective multiplication constant was calculated with the Gamtec-II and Keno-IV library. The results show many differences. (E.G) [pt

  18. Calculable resistors of coaxial design

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kucera, J; Vollmer, E; Schurr, J; Bohacek, J

    2009-01-01

    1000 Ω and 1290.64 Ω coaxial resistors with calculable frequency dependence have been realized at PTB to be used in quantum Hall effect-based impedance measurements. In contradistinction to common designs of coaxial resistors, the design described in this paper makes it possible to remove the resistive element from the shield and to handle it without cutting the outer cylindrical shield of the resistor. Emphasis has been given to manufacturing technology and suppressing unwanted sources of frequency dependence. The adjustment accuracy is better than 10 µΩ Ω −1

  19. Radiation shielding calculation using MCNP

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Masukawa, Fumihiro

    2001-01-01

    To verify the Monte Carlo code MCNP4A as a tool to generate the reference data in the shielding designs and the safety evaluations, various shielding benchmark experiments were analyzed using this code. These experiments were categorized in three types of the shielding subjects; bulk shielding, streaming, and skyshine. For the variance reduction technique, which is indispensable to get meaningful results with the Monte Carlo shielding calculation, we mainly used the weight window, the energy dependent Russian roulette and spitting. As a whole, our analyses performed enough small statistical errors and showed good agreements with these experiments. (author)

  20. Techniques of nuclear structure calculations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dyson, R.D.

    1967-04-01

    The quasiparticle method for identical particles interacting through pairing forces has been extended by others for use with systems of neutrons and protons. The method is to project isospin from separately considered neutron and proton quasiparticle wavefunctions. This is discussed in detail, and it seems that the projection may not be important. Therefore unprojected quasiparticle wavefunctions are tried with some success as a basis of states in which to diagonalize a realistic nuclear Hamiltonian. Brief unrelated calculations on nuclei of mass 19 and the SU(3) classification of states in the p-f shell are also presented. (author)

  1. Neutronic calculation of reactor cells

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jaliff, J.O.

    1981-01-01

    Multigroup calculations of cylindrical pin cells were programmed, in Fortran IV, upon the basis of collision probabilities in each energy group. A rational approximation to the fuel-to-fuel collision probability in resonance groups was used. Together with the intermediate resonance theory, cross sections corrected for heterogeneity and absorber interactions were found. For the optimization of the program, the cell of a BWR reactor was taken as reference. Data for such a cell and the reactor's operating conditions are presented. PINCEL is a fast and flexible program, with checked results, around a 69-group library. (M.E.L.) [es

  2. Electronics reliability calculation and design

    CERN Document Server

    Dummer, Geoffrey W A; Hiller, N

    1966-01-01

    Electronics Reliability-Calculation and Design provides an introduction to the fundamental concepts of reliability. The increasing complexity of electronic equipment has made problems in designing and manufacturing a reliable product more and more difficult. Specific techniques have been developed that enable designers to integrate reliability into their products, and reliability has become a science in its own right. The book begins with a discussion of basic mathematical and statistical concepts, including arithmetic mean, frequency distribution, median and mode, scatter or dispersion of mea

  3. Digital calculations of engine cycles

    CERN Document Server

    Starkman, E S; Taylor, C Fayette

    1964-01-01

    Digital Calculations of Engine Cycles is a collection of seven papers which were presented before technical meetings of the Society of Automotive Engineers during 1962 and 1963. The papers cover the spectrum of the subject of engine cycle events, ranging from an examination of composition and properties of the working fluid to simulation of the pressure-time events in the combustion chamber. The volume has been organized to present the material in a logical sequence. The first two chapters are concerned with the equilibrium states of the working fluid. These include the concentrations of var

  4. Methods for calculating nonconcave entropies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Touchette, Hugo

    2010-01-01

    Five different methods which can be used to analytically calculate entropies that are nonconcave as functions of the energy in the thermodynamic limit are discussed and compared. The five methods are based on the following ideas and techniques: (i) microcanonical contraction, (ii) metastable branches of the free energy, (iii) generalized canonical ensembles with specific illustrations involving the so-called Gaussian and Betrag ensembles, (iv) the restricted canonical ensemble, and (v) the inverse Laplace transform. A simple long-range spin model having a nonconcave entropy is used to illustrate each method

  5. FRELIB, Failure Reliability Index Calculation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Parkinson, D.B.; Oestergaard, C.

    1984-01-01

    1 - Description of problem or function: Calculation of the reliability index given the failure boundary. A linearization point (design point) is found on the failure boundary for a stationary reliability index (min) and a stationary failure probability density function along the failure boundary, provided that the basic variables are normally distributed. 2 - Method of solution: Iteration along the failure boundary which must be specified - together with its partial derivatives with respect to the basic variables - by the user in a subroutine FSUR. 3 - Restrictions on the complexity of the problem: No distribution information included (first-order-second-moment-method). 20 basic variables (could be extended)

  6. Concentration risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matić Vesna

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Concentration risk has been gaining a special dimension in the contemporary financial and economic environment. Financial institutions are exposed to this risk mainly in the field of lending, mostly through their credit activities and concentration of credit portfolios. This refers to the concentration of different exposures within a single risk category (credit risk, market risk, operational risk, liquidity risk.

  7. Calculational Tool for Skin Contamination Dose Assessment

    CERN Document Server

    Hill, R L

    2002-01-01

    Spreadsheet calculational tool was developed to automate the calculations preformed for dose assessment of skin contamination. This document reports on the design and testing of the spreadsheet calculational tool.

  8. Dissecting Reactor Antineutrino Flux Calculations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sonzogni, A. A.; McCutchan, E. A.; Hayes, A. C.

    2017-09-01

    Current predictions for the antineutrino yield and spectra from a nuclear reactor rely on the experimental electron spectra from 235U, 239Pu, 241Pu and a numerical method to convert these aggregate electron spectra into their corresponding antineutrino ones. In the present work we investigate quantitatively some of the basic assumptions and approximations used in the conversion method, studying first the compatibility between two recent approaches for calculating electron and antineutrino spectra. We then explore different possibilities for the disagreement between the measured Daya Bay and the Huber-Mueller antineutrino spectra, including the 238U contribution as well as the effective charge and the allowed shape assumption used in the conversion method. We observe that including a shape correction of about +6 % MeV-1 in conversion calculations can better describe the Daya Bay spectrum. Because of a lack of experimental data, this correction cannot be ruled out, concluding that in order to confirm the existence of the reactor neutrino anomaly, or even quantify it, precisely measured electron spectra for about 50 relevant fission products are needed. With the advent of new rare ion facilities, the measurement of shape factors for these nuclides, for many of which precise beta intensity data from TAGS experiments already exist, would be highly desirable.

  9. NATIONAL STORMWATER CALCULATOR USER'S GUIDE ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    The National Stormwater Calculator is a simple to use tool for computing small site hydrology for any location within the US. It estimates the amount of stormwater runoff generated from a site under different development and control scenarios over a long term period of historical rainfall. The analysis takes into account local soil conditions, slope, land cover and meteorology. Different types of low impact development (LID) practices (also known as green infrastructure) can be employed to help capture and retain rainfall on-site. Future climate change scenarios taken from internationally recognized climate change projections can also be considered. The calculator provides planning level estimates of capital and maintenance costs which will allow planners and managers to evaluate and compare effectiveness and costs of LID controls.The calculator’s primary focus is informing site developers and property owners on how well they can meet a desired stormwater retention target. It can be used to answer such questions as:• What is the largest daily rainfall amount that can be captured by a site in either its pre-development, current, or post-development condition?• To what degree will storms of different magnitudes be captured on site?• What mix of LID controls can be deployed to meet a given stormwater retention target?• How well will LID controls perform under future meteorological projections made by global climate change models?• What are the relativ

  10. Adjoint electron Monte Carlo calculations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jordan, T.M.

    1986-01-01

    Adjoint Monte Carlo is the most efficient method for accurate analysis of space systems exposed to natural and artificially enhanced electron environments. Recent adjoint calculations for isotropic electron environments include: comparative data for experimental measurements on electronics boxes; benchmark problem solutions for comparing total dose prediction methodologies; preliminary assessment of sectoring methods used during space system design; and total dose predictions on an electronics package. Adjoint Monte Carlo, forward Monte Carlo, and experiment are in excellent agreement for electron sources that simulate space environments. For electron space environments, adjoint Monte Carlo is clearly superior to forward Monte Carlo, requiring one to two orders of magnitude less computer time for relatively simple geometries. The solid-angle sectoring approximations used for routine design calculations can err by more than a factor of 2 on dose in simple shield geometries. For critical space systems exposed to severe electron environments, these potential sectoring errors demand the establishment of large design margins and/or verification of shield design by adjoint Monte Carlo/experiment

  11. Dispersion relations in loop calculations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kniehl, B.A.

    1996-01-01

    These lecture notes give a pedagogical introduction to the use of dispersion relations in loop calculations. We first derive dispersion relations which allow us to recover the real part of a physical amplitude from the knowledge of its absorptive part along the branch cut. In perturbative calculations, the latter may be constructed by means of Cutkosky's rule, which is briefly discussed. For illustration, we apply this procedure at one loop to the photon vacuum-polarization function induced by leptons as well as to the γf anti-f vertex form factor generated by the exchange of a massive vector boson between the two fermion legs. We also show how the hadronic contribution to the photon vacuum polarization may be extracted from the total cross section of hadron production in e + e - annihilation measured as a function of energy. Finally, we outline the application of dispersive techniques at the two-loop level, considering as an example the bosonic decay width of a high-mass Higgs boson. (author)

  12. Neutronics calculation of RTP core

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rabir, Mohamad Hairie B.; Zin, Muhammad Rawi B. Mohamed; Karim, Julia Bt. Abdul; Bayar, Abi Muttaqin B. Jalal; Usang, Mark Dennis Anak; Mustafa, Muhammad Khairul Ariff B.; Hamzah, Na'im Syauqi B.; Said, Norfarizan Bt. Mohd; Jalil, Muhammad Husamuddin B.

    2017-01-01

    Reactor calculation and simulation are significantly important to ensure safety and better utilization of a research reactor. The Malaysian's PUSPATI TRIGA Reactor (RTP) achieved initial criticality on June 28, 1982. The reactor is designed to effectively implement the various fields of basic nuclear research, manpower training, and production of radioisotopes. Since early 90s, neutronics modelling were used as part of its routine in-core fuel management activities. The are several computer codes have been used in RTP since then, based on 1D neutron diffusion, 2D neutron diffusion and 3D Monte Carlo neutron transport method. This paper describes current progress and overview on neutronics modelling development in RTP. Several important parameters were analysed such as keff, reactivity, neutron flux, power distribution and fission product build-up for the latest core configuration. The developed core neutronics model was validated by means of comparison with experimental and measurement data. Along with the RTP core model, the calculation procedure also developed to establish better prediction capability of RTP's behaviour.

  13. Calculation of sound propagation in fibrous materials

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tarnow, Viggo

    1996-01-01

    Calculations of attenuation and velocity of audible sound waves in glass wools are presented. The calculations use only the diameters of fibres and the mass density of glass wools as parameters. The calculations are compared with measurements.......Calculations of attenuation and velocity of audible sound waves in glass wools are presented. The calculations use only the diameters of fibres and the mass density of glass wools as parameters. The calculations are compared with measurements....

  14. Evaluation of students' knowledge about paediatric dosage calculations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Özyazıcıoğlu, Nurcan; Aydın, Ayla İrem; Sürenler, Semra; Çinar, Hava Gökdere; Yılmaz, Dilek; Arkan, Burcu; Tunç, Gülseren Çıtak

    2018-01-01

    Medication errors are common and may jeopardize the patient safety. As paediatric dosages are calculated based on the child's age and weight, risk of error in dosage calculations is increasing. In paediatric patients, overdose drug prescribed regardless of the child's weight, age and clinical picture may lead to excessive toxicity and mortalities while low doses may delay the treatment. This study was carried out to evaluate the knowledge of nursing students about paediatric dosage calculations. This research, which is of retrospective type, covers a population consisting of all the 3rd grade students at the bachelor's degree in May, 2015 (148 students). Drug dose calculation questions in exam papers including 3 open ended questions on dosage calculation problems, addressing 5 variables were distributed to the students and their responses were evaluated by the researchers. In the evaluation of the data, figures and percentage distribution were calculated and Spearman correlation analysis was applied. Exam question on the dosage calculation based on child's age, which is the most common method in paediatrics, and which ensures right dosages and drug dilution was answered correctly by 87.1% of the students while 9.5% answered it wrong and 3.4% left it blank. 69.6% of the students was successful in finding the safe dose range, and 79.1% in finding the right ratio/proportion. 65.5% of the answers with regard to Ml/dzy calculation were correct. Moreover, student's four operation skills were assessed and 68.2% of the students were determined to have found the correct answer. When the relation among the questions on medication was examined, a significant relation (correlation) was determined between them. It is seen that in dosage calculations, the students failed mostly in calculating ml/dzy (decimal). This result means that as dosage calculations are based on decimal values, calculations may be ten times erroneous when the decimal point is placed wrongly. Moreover, it

  15. Smartphone apps for calculating insulin dose: a systematic assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huckvale, Kit; Adomaviciute, Samanta; Prieto, José Tomás; Leow, Melvin Khee-Shing; Car, Josip

    2015-05-06

    Medical apps are widely available, increasingly used by patients and clinicians, and are being actively promoted for use in routine care. However, there is little systematic evidence exploring possible risks associated with apps intended for patient use. Because self-medication errors are a recognized source of avoidable harm, apps that affect medication use, such as dose calculators, deserve particular scrutiny. We explored the accuracy and clinical suitability of apps for calculating medication doses, focusing on insulin calculators for patients with diabetes as a representative use for a prevalent long-term condition. We performed a systematic assessment of all English-language rapid/short-acting insulin dose calculators available for iOS and Android. Searches identified 46 calculators that performed simple mathematical operations using planned carbohydrate intake and measured blood glucose. While 59% (n = 27/46) of apps included a clinical disclaimer, only 30% (n = 14/46) documented the calculation formula. 91% (n = 42/46) lacked numeric input validation, 59% (n = 27/46) allowed calculation when one or more values were missing, 48% (n = 22/46) used ambiguous terminology, 9% (n = 4/46) did not use adequate numeric precision and 4% (n = 2/46) did not store parameters faithfully. 67% (n = 31/46) of apps carried a risk of inappropriate output dose recommendation that either violated basic clinical assumptions (48%, n = 22/46) or did not match a stated formula (14%, n = 3/21) or correctly update in response to changing user inputs (37%, n = 17/46). Only one app, for iOS, was issue-free according to our criteria. No significant differences were observed in issue prevalence by payment model or platform. The majority of insulin dose calculator apps provide no protection against, and may actively contribute to, incorrect or inappropriate dose recommendations that put current users at risk of both catastrophic overdose and more

  16. Risk perception for paragliding practitioners.

    OpenAIRE

    Paixão, Jairo Antônio da; Tucher, Guilherme

    2012-01-01

    As an adventure sport, paragliding exposes participants to different levels of life risk. However, the boundary between calculated risk and real risk is a subtle one, depending on the practitioner’s perception. Thus, this study aimed to analyze risk perception of 73 paragliding practitioners. The descriptive-exploratory study method was used. Data was col-lected via a questionnaire validated according to the Delphi technique. Variables were evaluated from a bipolar Likert type scale, ranging ...

  17. Mathematics, Pricing, Market Risk Management and Trading Strategies for Financial Derivatives (2/3)

    CERN Multimedia

    CERN. Geneva; Coffey, Brian

    2009-01-01

    Market Trading and Risk Management of Vanilla FX Options - Measures of Market Risk - Implied Volatility - FX Risk Reversals, FX Strangles - Valuation and Risk Calculations - Risk Management - Market Trading Strategies

  18. Methodologies of Uncertainty Propagation Calculation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chojnacki, Eric

    2002-01-01

    After recalling the theoretical principle and the practical difficulties of the methodologies of uncertainty propagation calculation, the author discussed how to propagate input uncertainties. He said there were two kinds of input uncertainty: - variability: uncertainty due to heterogeneity, - lack of knowledge: uncertainty due to ignorance. It was therefore necessary to use two different propagation methods. He demonstrated this in a simple example which he generalised, treating the variability uncertainty by the probability theory and the lack of knowledge uncertainty by the fuzzy theory. He cautioned, however, against the systematic use of probability theory which may lead to unjustifiable and illegitimate precise answers. Mr Chojnacki's conclusions were that the importance of distinguishing variability and lack of knowledge increased as the problem was getting more and more complex in terms of number of parameters or time steps, and that it was necessary to develop uncertainty propagation methodologies combining probability theory and fuzzy theory

  19. Thermodynamic Calculations for Systems Biocatalysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Abu, Rohana; Gundersen, Maria T.; Woodley, John M.

    2015-01-01

    the transamination of a pro-chiral ketone into a chiral amine (interesting in many pharmaceutical applications). Here, the products are often less energetically stable than the reactants, meaning that the reaction may be thermodynamically unfavourable. As in nature, such thermodynamically-challenged reactions can...... on the basis of kinetics. However, many of the most interesting non-natural chemical reactions which could potentially be catalysed by enzymes, are thermodynamically unfavourable and are thus limited by the equilibrium position of the reaction. A good example is the enzyme ω-transaminase, which catalyses...... be altered by coupling with other reactions. For instance, in the case of ω-transaminase, such a coupling could be with alanine dehydrogenase. Herein, the aim of this work is to identify thermodynamic bottlenecks within a multi-enzyme process, using group contribution method to calculate the Gibbs free...

  20. Calculating utility prudency issue costs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nielsen, K.R.

    1985-01-01

    The nuclear industry, particularly utilities and their construction, engineering and vendor agents, is faced with a surging increase in prudency management audits. What started as primarily a nuclear project-oriented requirement has spread to encompass most significant utility capital construction projects. Such audits are often a precedent condition to commencement of rate hearings. The cost engineer, a primary major capital construction project participant, is required to develop or critique ''prudency issue'' costs as part of such audits. Although utility costs in the broadest sense are potentially at issue, this paper concentrates on the typical project/construction management costs. The costs of design, procurement and construction are all subject to the calculation process

  1. Shielding calculations. Optimization vs. Paradigms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cornejo Diaz, Nestor; Hernandez Saiz, Alejandro; Martinez Gonzalez, Alina

    2005-01-01

    Many radiation shielding barriers in Cuba have been designed according to the criterion of Maxi-mum Projected Dose Rates. This fact has created the paradigm of low dose rates. Because of this, dose rate levels greater than units of Sv.h-1 would be considered unacceptable by many specialists, regardless of the real exposure times. Nowadays many shielding barriers are being designed using dose constraints in real exposure times. Behind the new barriers, dose rates could be notably greater than those behind the traditional ones, and it does not imply inadequate designs or constructive errors. In this work were obtained significant differences in dose rate levels and shield-ing thicknesses calculated by both methods for some typical installations. The work concludes that real exposure time approach is more adequate in order to optimise Radiation Protection, although this method should be carefully applied

  2. Dyscalculia and the Calculating Brain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rapin, Isabelle

    2016-08-01

    Dyscalculia, like dyslexia, affects some 5% of school-age children but has received much less investigative attention. In two thirds of affected children, dyscalculia is associated with another developmental disorder like dyslexia, attention-deficit disorder, anxiety disorder, visual and spatial disorder, or cultural deprivation. Infants, primates, some birds, and other animals are born with the innate ability, called subitizing, to tell at a glance whether small sets of scattered dots or other items differ by one or more item. This nonverbal approximate number system extends mostly to single digit sets as visual discrimination drops logarithmically to "many" with increasing numerosity (size effect) and crowding (distance effect). Preschoolers need several years and specific teaching to learn verbal names and visual symbols for numbers and school agers to understand their cardinality and ordinality and the invariance of their sequence (arithmetic number line) that enables calculation. This arithmetic linear line differs drastically from the nonlinear approximate number system mental number line that parallels the individual number-tuned neurons in the intraparietal sulcus in monkeys and overlying scalp distribution of discrete functional magnetic resonance imaging activations by number tasks in man. Calculation is a complex skill that activates both visual and spatial and visual and verbal networks. It is less strongly left lateralized than language, with approximate number system activation somewhat more right sided and exact number and arithmetic activation more left sided. Maturation and increasing number skill decrease associated widespread non-numerical brain activations that persist in some individuals with dyscalculia, which has no single, universal neurological cause or underlying mechanism in all affected individuals. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. RISK PREMIUM IN MOTOR VEHICLE INSURANCE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    BANU ÖZGÜREL

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available The pure premium or risk premium is the premium that would exactly meet the expected cost of the risk covered ignoring management expenses, commissions, contingency loading, etc. Claim frequency rate and mean claim size are required for estimation in calculating risk premiums. In this study, we discussed to estimate claim frequency rate and mean claim size with several methods and calculated risk premiums. Data, which supported our study, is provided by insurance company involving with motor vehicle insurance.

  4. Stability calculations for MHD magnets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Turner, L.R.; Wang, S.T.; Harrang, J.

    1978-01-01

    When a cryostable composite conductor carrying current experiences a heat input from a mechanical perturbation, a normal region develops which initially propagates and then either collapses or continues to propagate. A computer model has been devised to study this phenomenon. The model incorporates initial or continuing heat input from mechanical perturbations, heat conducted to the neighboring elements of the conductor and, if appropriate, heat conducted through insulation to neighboring turns. Heat is transferred to the helium coolant according to a specified heat transfer coefficient. If the element of conductor is in a normal or current-sharing state, resistive heating also occurs. The (unstable) equilibrium state of heat generation and conduction has been studied; results agree with those of a static calculation. The model has been validated against experimental measurements of response to heat pulses. The model suffers from uncertainties in transient heat transfer to the helium, but even more from uncertainties in the perturbing heat pulse which the magnet might be expected to suffer

  5. Selfconsistent calculations for hyperdeformed nuclei

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Molique, H.; Dobaczewski, J.; Dudek, J.; Luo, W.D. [Universite Louis Pasteur, Strasbourg (France)

    1996-12-31

    Properties of the hyperdeformed nuclei in the A {approximately} 170 mass range are re-examined using the self-consistent Hartree-Fock method with the SOP parametrization. A comparison with the previous predictions that were based on a non-selfconsistent approach is made. The existence of the {open_quotes}hyper-deformed shell closures{close_quotes} at the proton and neutron numbers Z=70 and N=100 and their very weak dependence on the rotational frequency is suggested; the corresponding single-particle energy gaps are predicted to play a role similar to that of the Z=66 and N=86 gaps in the super-deformed nuclei of the A {approximately} 150 mass range. Selfconsistent calculations suggest also that the A {approximately} 170 hyperdeformed structures have neglegible mass asymmetry in their shapes. Very importantly for the experimental studies, both the fission barriers and the {open_quotes}inner{close_quotes} barriers (that separate the hyperdeformed structures from those with smaller deformations) are predicted to be relatively high, up to the factor of {approximately}2 higher than the corresponding ones in the {sup 152}Dy superdeformed nucleus used as a reference.

  6. Calculating system reliability with SRFYDO

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Morzinski, Jerome [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Anderson - Cook, Christine M [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Klamann, Richard M [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2010-01-01

    SRFYDO is a process for estimating reliability of complex systems. Using information from all applicable sources, including full-system (flight) data, component test data, and expert (engineering) judgment, SRFYDO produces reliability estimates and predictions. It is appropriate for series systems with possibly several versions of the system which share some common components. It models reliability as a function of age and up to 2 other lifecycle (usage) covariates. Initial output from its Exploratory Data Analysis mode consists of plots and numerical summaries so that the user can check data entry and model assumptions, and help determine a final form for the system model. The System Reliability mode runs a complete reliability calculation using Bayesian methodology. This mode produces results that estimate reliability at the component, sub-system, and system level. The results include estimates of uncertainty, and can predict reliability at some not-too-distant time in the future. This paper presents an overview of the underlying statistical model for the analysis, discusses model assumptions, and demonstrates usage of SRFYDO.

  7. Giving Ourselves Permission to Take Risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Elizabeth

    2012-01-01

    What's a risk? It's when one doesn't know what will happen when she/he takes action. Risks can be little or big, calculated or stupid. Every new idea carries risks--and the challenge to face them and see what will happen. Nobody becomes smart, creative, self-confident, and respectful of others without taking risks--remaining open to possibilities…

  8. Model of MSD Risk Assessment at Workplace

    OpenAIRE

    K. Sekulová; M. Šimon

    2015-01-01

    This article focuses on upper-extremity musculoskeletal disorders risk assessment model at workplace. In this model are used risk factors that are responsible for musculoskeletal system damage. Based on statistic calculations the model is able to define what risk of MSD threatens workers who are under risk factors. The model is also able to say how MSD risk would decrease if these risk factors are eliminated.

  9. GAR Global Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maskrey, Andrew; Safaie, Sahar

    2015-04-01

    Disaster risk management strategies, policies and actions need to be based on evidence of current disaster loss and risk patterns, past trends and future projections, and underlying risk factors. Faced with competing demands for resources, at any level it is only possible to priorities a range of disaster risk management strategies and investments with adequate understanding of realised losses, current and future risk levels and impacts on economic growth and social wellbeing as well as cost and impact of the strategy. The mapping and understanding of the global risk landscape has been greatly enhanced by the latest iteration of the GAR Global Risk Assessment and the objective of this submission is to present the GAR global risk assessment which contributed to Global Assessment Report (GAR) 2015. This initiative which has been led by UNISDR, was conducted by a consortium of technical institutions from around the world and has covered earthquake, cyclone, riverine flood, and tsunami probabilistic risk for all countries of the world. In addition, the risks associated with volcanic ash in the Asia-Pacific region, drought in various countries in sub-Saharan Africa and climate change in a number of countries have been calculated. The presentation will share thee results as well as the experience including the challenges faced in technical elements as well as the process and recommendations for the future of such endeavour.

  10. Risk of energy production

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Inhaber, Herbert.

    1978-03-01

    Every human activity involves risk of accident or disease. Generation of energy is no exception. Although such risk has been considered for conventional systems (coal, oil and nuclear), a similar analysis for the so-called alternative or non-conventional systems (solar, wind, ocean thermal and methanol) has been lacking. This paper presents an evaluation of the risk, both occupational and to the public, of non-conventional energy systems. They are considered both in absolute terms and in relation to conventional systems. The risk of most non-conventional systems, per unit of energy output, is comparable to, and in some cases much higher than, the risk from coal and oil. This conclusion holds whether we consider deaths or injuries. Nuclear power and natural gas had the lowest overall risk of the ten technologies considered. Ocean thermal energy ranked third. The surprising result is that the other seven technologies considered were found to be up to 100 times less safe. The total risk is calculated by considering six components: material acquisition and construction, emissions caused by material production, operation and maintenance, energy back-up, energy storage, and transportation. In this way the risk of widely different systems can be fairly assessed. This methodology of 'risk accounting' will not tell us which energy technology to use. However, it can be employed to inform society of the risk inherent in competing energy systems. (author)

  11. Software testing in roughness calculation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, Y L; Hsieh, P F; Fu, W E

    2005-01-01

    A test method to determine the function quality provided by the software for roughness measurement is presented in this study. The function quality of the software requirements should be part of and assessed through the entire life cycle of the software package. The specific function, or output accuracy, is crucial for the analysis of the experimental data. For scientific applications, however, commercial software is usually embedded with specific instrument, which is used for measurement or analysis during the manufacture process. In general, the error ratio caused by the software would be more apparent especially when dealing with relatively small quantities, like the measurements in the nanometer-scale range. The model of 'using a data generator' proposed by NPL of UK was applied in this study. An example of the roughness software is tested and analyzed by the above mentioned process. After selecting the 'reference results', the 'reference data' was generated by a programmable 'data generator'. The filter function of 0.8 mm long cutoff value, defined in ISO 11562 was tested with 66 sinusoid data at different wavelengths. Test results from commercial software and CMS written program were compared to the theoretical data calculated from ISO standards. As for the filter function in this software, the result showed a significant disagreement between the reference and test results. The short cutoff feature for filtering at the high frequencies does not function properly, while the long cutoff feature has the maximum difference in the filtering ratio, which is more than 70% between the wavelength of 300 μm and 500 μm. Conclusively, the commercial software needs to be tested more extensively for specific application by appropriate design of reference dataset to ensure its function quality

  12. Nonlinear calculations for bump Cepheids

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hodson, S.W.; Cox, A.N.

    1979-01-01

    Hydrodynamic calculations to find strictly periodic solutions for the fundamental mode pulsations of 7 M/sub sun/ models were made using the von Sengbusch--Stellingwerf relaxation method. The models have a helium enrichment in the surface convection zones to Y = 0.78, which from the linear theory period ratio π 2 /π 0 and the Simon and Schmidt resonance hypothesis, should give the observed Hertzsprung progression of light and velocity curve bump phase with period. These surface helium enhanced models show the proper nonlinear bump phase behavior without resort to any mass loss before or during the blue loop phases of yellow giant evolution. At 6000 K and the evolution theory luminosity of 4744 L/sub sun/ for 7 M/sub sun/, that is, at a fundamental mode period of 8.5 day, the velocity curve bump is well after the maximum expansion velocity. At 5400 K and at the same luminosity (period of 12.5 days), there is a bump on the velocity curve well before maximum expansion velocity time. The latter case seems to exhibit the Christy echos but not the former. The echo interpretation may not be appropriate for these masses which are larger than the anomalous masses used by Christy, Stobie, and Adams. Resonance of the fundamental and second overtone modes should not necessarily show echos of surface disturbances from the center. The conclusion is that helium enrichment in the surface convection zones can adequately explain observations of bump Cepheids at evolution theory masses. 12 references

  13. Acceleration and increased control of convergence in criticality calculations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jinaphanh, Alexis

    2014-01-01

    IRSN is developing a numerical simulation code called Moret to assess the nuclear criticality risk. This tool is designed to perform 3D simulations of neutron transport in a given system. It achieves this by adopting a probabilistic approach known as Monte Carlo, in which the transport of several successive generations of neutrons is calculated from an initial neutron distribution in the system under study. These generations are simulated until it is considered that convergence of the effective neutron multiplication coefficient (or K eff ) - which characterizes the gap before reaching the critical state - has been reached. Insufficient convergence can lead to underestimation of both K eff and the criticality risk. During this thesis work, A. Jinaphanh sought to improve the reliability of values by developing a new method for initializing calculations, together with a criterion used to reliably determine whether or not convergence has been reached. (author)

  14. A Security Risk Measurement for the RAdAC Model

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Britton, David W; Brown, Ian A

    2007-01-01

    .... The intent is to quantify the risk involved in a single information transaction. Additionally, this thesis will attempt to identify the risk factors involved when calculating the total security risk measurement...

  15. Mapping of nitrogen risks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Blicher-Mathiesen, Gitte; Andersen, Hans Estrup; Carstensen, Jacob

    2014-01-01

    risk mapping part of the tool, we combined a modelled root zone N leaching with a catchment-specific N reduction factor which in combination determines the N load to the marine recipient. N leaching was calculated using detailed information of agricultural management from national databases as well...... will be more effective if they are implemented in N loss hot spots or risk areas. Additionally, the highly variable N reduction in groundwater and surface waters needs to be taken into account as this strongly influences the resulting effect of mitigation measures. The objectives of this study were to develop...... and apply an N risk tool to the entire agricultural land area in Denmark. The purpose of the tool is to identify high risk areas, i.e. areas which contribute disproportionately much to diffuse N losses to the marine recipient, and to suggest cost-effective measures to reduce losses from risk areas. In the N...

  16. Calculation of dietary exposure to acrylamide in the Norwegian population

    OpenAIRE

    Norwegian Scientific Committee for Food Safety

    2015-01-01

    The Norwegian Scientific Committee for Food Safety (VKM) is requested by the Norwegian Food Safety Authority (NFSA) to calculate the dietary exposure to acrylamide in the Norwegian population. NFSA refers to the recent scientific opinion on acrylamide in food by the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA). EFSA concludes that acrylamide in food potentially increases the risk of developing cancer for consumers in all age groups.

  17. Adversarial risk analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Banks, David L; Rios Insua, David

    2015-01-01

    Flexible Models to Analyze Opponent Behavior A relatively new area of research, adversarial risk analysis (ARA) informs decision making when there are intelligent opponents and uncertain outcomes. Adversarial Risk Analysis develops methods for allocating defensive or offensive resources against intelligent adversaries. Many examples throughout illustrate the application of the ARA approach to a variety of games and strategic situations. The book shows decision makers how to build Bayesian models for the strategic calculation of their opponents, enabling decision makers to maximize their expected utility or minimize their expected loss. This new approach to risk analysis asserts that analysts should use Bayesian thinking to describe their beliefs about an opponent's goals, resources, optimism, and type of strategic calculation, such as minimax and level-k thinking. Within that framework, analysts then solve the problem from the perspective of the opponent while placing subjective probability distributions on a...

  18. Critical evaluation of German regulatory specifications for calculating radiological exposure

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Koenig, Claudia; Walther, Clemens [Hannover Univ. (Germany). Inst. of Radioecology; Smeddinck, Ulrich [Technische Univ. Braunschweig (Germany). Inst. of Law

    2015-07-01

    The assessment of radiological exposure of the public is an issue at the interface between scientific findings, juridical standard setting and political decision. The present work revisits the German regulatory specifications for calculating radiological exposure, like the already existing calculation model General Administrative Provision (AVV) for planning and monitoring nuclear facilities. We address the calculation models for the recent risk assessment regarding the final disposal of radioactive waste in Germany. To do so, a two-pronged approach is pursued. One part deals with radiological examinations of the groundwater-soil-transfer path of radionuclides into the biosphere. Processes at the so-called geosphere-biosphere-interface are examined, especially migration of I-129 in the unsaturated zone. This is necessary, since the German General Administrative Provision does not consider radionuclide transport via groundwater from an underground disposal facility yet. Especially data with regard to processes in the vadose zone are scarce. Therefore, using I-125 as a tracer, immobilization and mobilization of iodine is investigated in two reference soils from the German Federal Environment Agency. The second part of this study examines how scientific findings but also measures and activities of stakeholders and concerned parties influence juridical standard setting, which is necessary for risk management. Risk assessment, which is a scientific task, includes identification and investigation of relevant sources of radiation, possible pathways to humans, and maximum extent and duration of exposure based on dose-response functions. Risk characterization identifies probability and severity of health effects. These findings have to be communicated to authorities, who have to deal with the risk management. Risk management includes, for instance, taking into account acceptability of the risk, actions to reduce, mitigate, substitute or monitor the hazard, the setting of

  19. Calculation of the resonance cross section functions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Slipicevic, K.F.

    1967-11-01

    This paper includes the procedure for calculating the Doppler broadened line shape functions ψ and χ which are needed for calculation of resonance cross section functions. The obtained values are given in tables

  20. Calculation of the resonance cross section functions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Slipicevic, K F [Institute of nuclear sciences Boris Kidric, Vinca, Beograd (Yugoslavia)

    1967-11-15

    This paper includes the procedure for calculating the Doppler broadened line shape functions {psi} and {chi} which are needed for calculation of resonance cross section functions. The obtained values are given in tables.

  1. Results of recent calculations using realistic potentials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Friar, J.L.

    1987-01-01

    Results of recent calculations for the triton using realistic potentials with strong tensor forces are reviewed, with an emphasis on progress made using the many different calculational schemes. Several test problems are suggested. 49 refs., 5 figs

  2. The cellular approach to band structure calculations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Verwoerd, W.S.

    1982-01-01

    A short introduction to the cellular approach in band structure calculations is given. The linear cellular approach and its potantial applicability in surface structure calculations is given some consideration in particular

  3. Exploration Health Risks: Probabilistic Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rhatigan, Jennifer; Charles, John; Hayes, Judith; Wren, Kiley

    2006-01-01

    Maintenance of human health on long-duration exploration missions is a primary challenge to mission designers. Indeed, human health risks are currently the largest risk contributors to the risks of evacuation or loss of the crew on long-duration International Space Station missions. We describe a quantitative assessment of the relative probabilities of occurrence of the individual risks to human safety and efficiency during space flight to augment qualitative assessments used in this field to date. Quantitative probabilistic risk assessments will allow program managers to focus resources on those human health risks most likely to occur with undesirable consequences. Truly quantitative assessments are common, even expected, in the engineering and actuarial spheres, but that capability is just emerging in some arenas of life sciences research, such as identifying and minimize the hazards to astronauts during future space exploration missions. Our expectation is that these results can be used to inform NASA mission design trade studies in the near future with the objective of preventing the higher among the human health risks. We identify and discuss statistical techniques to provide this risk quantification based on relevant sets of astronaut biomedical data from short and long duration space flights as well as relevant analog populations. We outline critical assumptions made in the calculations and discuss the rationale for these. Our efforts to date have focussed on quantifying the probabilities of medical risks that are qualitatively perceived as relatively high risks of radiation sickness, cardiac dysrhythmias, medically significant renal stone formation due to increased calcium mobilization, decompression sickness as a result of EVA (extravehicular activity), and bone fracture due to loss of bone mineral density. We present these quantitative probabilities in order-of-magnitude comparison format so that relative risk can be gauged. We address the effects of

  4. Modern biogeochemistry environmental risk assessment

    CERN Document Server

    Bashkin, Vladimir N

    2006-01-01

    Most books deal mainly with various technical aspects of ERA description and calculationsAims at generalizing the modern ideas of both biogeochemical and environmental risk assessment during recent yearsAims at supplementing the existing books by providing a modern understanding of mechanisms that are responsible for the ecological risk for human beings and ecosystem

  5. Final disposal room structural response calculations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stone, C.M.

    1997-08-01

    Finite element calculations have been performed to determine the structural response of waste-filled disposal rooms at the WIPP for a period of 10,000 years after emplacement of the waste. The calculations were performed to generate the porosity surface data for the final set of compliance calculations. The most recent reference data for the stratigraphy, waste characterization, gas generation potential, and nonlinear material response have been brought together for this final set of calculations

  6. Buckling feedback of the spectral calculations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jing Xingqing; Shan Wenzhi; Luo Jingyu

    1992-01-01

    This paper studies the problems about buckling feedback of spectral calculations in physical calculations of the reactor and presents a useful method by which the buckling feedback of spectral calculations is implemented. The effect of the buckling feedback in spectra and the broad group cross section, convergence of buckling feedback iteration and the effect of the spectral zones dividing are discussed in the calculations. This method has been used for the physical design of HTR-10 MW Test Module

  7. 47 CFR 1.1623 - Probability calculation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 47 Telecommunication 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Probability calculation. 1.1623 Section 1.1623 Telecommunication FEDERAL COMMUNICATIONS COMMISSION GENERAL PRACTICE AND PROCEDURE Random Selection Procedures for Mass Media Services General Procedures § 1.1623 Probability calculation. (a) All calculations shall be...

  8. Cardiovascular risk after preeclampsia : The effect of communicating risk factors on intended healthy behavior

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bokslag, Anouk; Kroeze, Willemieke; de Groot, Christianne J.M.; Teunissen, Pim W.

    Objective: We studied the effect of communicating cardiovascular risk factors on intended healthy behavior in women with a history of preeclampsia or uncomplicated pregnancy. Methods: Intention for healthy behavior was assessed before and after cardiovascular risk assessment. Changes were calculated

  9. Risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1983-01-01

    The report is in sections, entitled: preface; summary and conclusions; introduction (historical and organizational); estimating engineering risks (techniques of risk estimation and forms of expression of risk); laboratory experiments for estimation of biological risks; estimation of risk from observations on man (travel, medical procedures; occupations; sport); the perception of risks; (as an example of attitudes towards a single hazard, studies of nuclear power are considered among other topics in this section); risk management (estimation; perception; acceptability, analysis of risk, costs and benefits; safety standards; decision-making process; possible guidelines). (U.K.)

  10. Comparative risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Niehaus, F.

    1988-01-01

    In this paper, the risks of various energy systems are discussed considering severe accidents analysis, particularly the probabilistic safety analysis, and probabilistic safety criteria, and the applications of these criteria and analysis. The comparative risk analysis has demonstrated that the largest source of risk in every society is from daily small accidents. Nevertheless, we have to be more concerned about severe accidents. The comparative risk analysis of five different energy systems (coal, oil, gas, LWR and STEC (Solar)) for the public has shown that the main sources of risks are coal and oil. The latest comparative risk study of various energy has been conducted in the USA and has revealed that the number of victims from coal is 42 as many than victims from nuclear. A study for severe accidents from hydro-dams in United States has estimated the probability of dam failures at 1 in 10,000 years and the number of victims between 11,000 and 260,000. The average occupational risk from coal is one fatal accident in 1,000 workers/year. The probabilistic safety analysis is a method that can be used to assess nuclear energy risks, and to analyze the severe accidents, and to model all possible accident sequences and consequences. The 'Fault tree' analysis is used to know the probability of failure of the different systems at each point of accident sequences and to calculate the probability of risks. After calculating the probability of failure, the criteria for judging the numerical results have to be developed, that is the quantitative and qualitative goals. To achieve these goals, several systems have been devised by various countries members of AIEA. The probabilistic safety ana-lysis method has been developed by establishing a computer program permit-ting to know different categories of safety related information. 19 tabs. (author)

  11. State of risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Conrad, J.

    1978-03-01

    In view of the growing importance assumed in recent years by scientific work on the calculation, quantification, evaluation and acceptance as well as behavior in the face of risks in general and more specifically, the risks of large industrial plants, the report attempts to provide a survey of the current situation, results and evaluation of this new branch of research, risk assessment. The emphasis of the report is on the basic discussion and criticism of the theoretical and methodological approaches used in the field of risk assessment (section 3). It is concerned above all with - methodical problems of determining and quantifying risks (3.1) - questions of the possibility of risk evaluation and comp arison (3.1, 3.2) - the premises of normative and empirical studies on decision making under risk (3.2, 3.3) - investigations into society's acceptance of risks involved in the introduction of new technologies (3.4) - attempts to combine various aspects of the field of risk assessment in a unified concept (3.5, 3.6, 3.7). Because risk assessment is embedded in the framework of decision theory and technology assessment, it can be implicitly evaluated at a more general level within this framework, as far as its possibilities and weaknesses of method and application are concerned (section 4). Sections 2 and 5 deal with the social context of origin and utilization of risk assessment. Finally, an attempt is made at a summary indicating the possible future development of risk assessment. (orig./HP) [de

  12. Two-dimensional sensitivity calculation code: SENSETWO

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yamauchi, Michinori; Nakayama, Mitsuo; Minami, Kazuyoshi; Seki, Yasushi; Iida, Hiromasa.

    1979-05-01

    A SENSETWO code for the calculation of cross section sensitivities with a two-dimensional model has been developed, on the basis of first order perturbation theory. It uses forward neutron and/or gamma-ray fluxes and adjoint fluxes obtained by two-dimensional discrete ordinates code TWOTRAN-II. The data and informations of cross sections, geometry, nuclide density, response functions, etc. are transmitted to SENSETWO by the dump magnetic tape made in TWOTRAN calculations. The required input for SENSETWO calculations is thus very simple. The SENSETWO yields as printed output the cross section sensitivities for each coarse mesh zone and for each energy group, as well as the plotted output of sensitivity profiles specified by the input. A special feature of the code is that it also calculates the reaction rate with the response function used as the adjoint source in TWOTRAN adjoint calculation and the calculated forward flux from the TWOTRAN forward calculation. (author)

  13. Quantitative flood risk assessment for Polders

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Manen, Sipke E. van; Brinkhuis, Martine

    2005-01-01

    In the Netherlands, the design of dikes and other water retaining structures is based on an acceptable probability (frequency) of overtopping. In 1993 a new safety concept was introduced based on total flood risk. Risk was defined as the product of probability and consequences. In recent years advanced tools have become available to calculate the actual flood risk of a polder. This paper describes the application of these tools to an existing lowland river area. The complete chain of calculations necessary to estimate the risk of flooding of a polder (or dike ring) is presented. The difficulties in applying the present day tools and the largest uncertainties in the calculations are shown

  14. Quantitative flood risk assessment for Polders

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Manen, Sipke E. van [Ministry of Transport, Public Works and Water Management, Bouwdienst Rijkswaterstaat, Griffioenlaan 2, Utrecht 3526 (Netherlands)]. E-mail: s.e.vmanen@bwd.rws.minvenw.nl; Brinkhuis, Martine [Ministry of Transport, Public Works and Water Management, Delft (Netherlands)

    2005-12-01

    In the Netherlands, the design of dikes and other water retaining structures is based on an acceptable probability (frequency) of overtopping. In 1993 a new safety concept was introduced based on total flood risk. Risk was defined as the product of probability and consequences. In recent years advanced tools have become available to calculate the actual flood risk of a polder. This paper describes the application of these tools to an existing lowland river area. The complete chain of calculations necessary to estimate the risk of flooding of a polder (or dike ring) is presented. The difficulties in applying the present day tools and the largest uncertainties in the calculations are shown.

  15. Impact of risk factors on cardiovascular risk: a perspective on risk estimation in a Swiss population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chrubasik, Sigrun A; Chrubasik, Cosima A; Piper, Jörg; Schulte-Moenting, Juergen; Erne, Paul

    2015-01-01

    In models and scores for estimating cardiovascular risk (CVR), the relative weightings given to blood pressure measurements (BPMs), and biometric and laboratory variables are such that even large differences in blood pressure lead to rather low differences in the resulting total risk when compared with other concurrent risk factors. We evaluated this phenomenon based on the PROCAM score, using BPMs made by volunteer subjects at home (HBPMs) and automated ambulatory BPMs (ABPMs) carried out in the same subjects. A total of 153 volunteers provided the data needed to estimate their CVR by means of the PROCAM formula. Differences (deltaCVR) between the risk estimated by entering the ABPM and that estimated with the HBPM were compared with the differences (deltaBPM) between the ABPM and the corresponding HBPM. In addition to the median values (= second quartile), the first and third quartiles of blood pressure profiles were also considered. PROCAM risk values were converted to European Society of Cardiology (ESC) risk values and all participants were assigned to the risk groups low, medium and high. Based on the PROCAM score, 132 participants had a low risk for suffering myocardial infarction, 16 a medium risk and 5 a high risk. The calculated ESC scores classified 125 participants into the low-risk group, 26 into the medium- and 2 into the high-risk group for death from a cardiovascular event. Mean ABPM tended to be higher than mean HBPM. Use of mean systolic ABPM or HBPM in the PROCAM formula had no major impact on the risk level. Our observations are in agreement with the rather low weighting of blood pressure as risk determinant in the PROCAM score. BPMs assessed with different methods had relatively little impact on estimation of cardiovascular risk in the given context of other important determinants. The risk calculations in our unselected population reflect the given classification of Switzerland as a so-called cardiovascular "low risk country".

  16. D ampersand D screening risk evaluation guidance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Robers, S.K.; Golden, K.M.; Wollert, D.A.

    1995-09-01

    The Screening Risk Evaluation (SRE) guidance document is a set of guidelines provided for the uniform implementation of SREs performed on decontamination and decommissioning (D ampersand D) facilities. Although this method has been developed for D ampersand D facilities, it can be used for transition (EM-60) facilities as well. The SRE guidance produces screening risk scores reflecting levels of risk through the use of risk ranking indices. Five types of possible risk are calculated from the SRE: current releases, worker exposures, future releases, physical hazards, and criticality. The Current Release Index (CRI) calculates the current risk to human health and the environment, exterior to the building, from ongoing or probable releases within a one-year time period. The Worker Exposure Index (WEI) calculates the current risk to workers, occupants and visitors inside contaminated D ampersand D facilities due to contaminant exposure. The Future Release Index (FRI) calculates the hypothetical risk of future releases of contaminants, after one year, to human health and the environment. The Physical Hazards Index (PHI) calculates the risks to human health due to factors other than that of contaminants. Criticality is approached as a modifying factor to the entire SRE, due to the fact that criticality issues are strictly regulated under DOE. Screening risk results will be tabulated in matrix form, and Total Risk will be calculated (weighted equation) to produce a score on which to base early action recommendations. Other recommendations from the screening risk scores will be made based either on individual index scores or from reweighted Total Risk calculations. All recommendations based on the SRE will be made based on a combination of screening risk scores, decision drivers, and other considerations, as determined on a project-by-project basis

  17. D & D screening risk evaluation guidance

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Robers, S.K.; Golden, K.M.; Wollert, D.A.

    1995-09-01

    The Screening Risk Evaluation (SRE) guidance document is a set of guidelines provided for the uniform implementation of SREs performed on decontamination and decommissioning (D&D) facilities. Although this method has been developed for D&D facilities, it can be used for transition (EM-60) facilities as well. The SRE guidance produces screening risk scores reflecting levels of risk through the use of risk ranking indices. Five types of possible risk are calculated from the SRE: current releases, worker exposures, future releases, physical hazards, and criticality. The Current Release Index (CRI) calculates the current risk to human health and the environment, exterior to the building, from ongoing or probable releases within a one-year time period. The Worker Exposure Index (WEI) calculates the current risk to workers, occupants and visitors inside contaminated D&D facilities due to contaminant exposure. The Future Release Index (FRI) calculates the hypothetical risk of future releases of contaminants, after one year, to human health and the environment. The Physical Hazards Index (PHI) calculates the risks to human health due to factors other than that of contaminants. Criticality is approached as a modifying factor to the entire SRE, due to the fact that criticality issues are strictly regulated under DOE. Screening risk results will be tabulated in matrix form, and Total Risk will be calculated (weighted equation) to produce a score on which to base early action recommendations. Other recommendations from the screening risk scores will be made based either on individual index scores or from reweighted Total Risk calculations. All recommendations based on the SRE will be made based on a combination of screening risk scores, decision drivers, and other considerations, as determined on a project-by-project basis.

  18. Systemic risk contributions: a credit portfolio approach

    OpenAIRE

    Düllmann, Klaus; Puzanova, Natalia

    2011-01-01

    We put forward a Merton-type multi-factor portfolio model for assessing banks' contributions to systemic risk. This model accounts for the major drivers of banks' systemic relevance: size, default risk and correlation of banks' assets as a proxy for interconnectedness. We measure systemic risk in terms of the portfolio expected shortfall (ES). Banks' (marginal) risk contributions are calculated based on partial derivatives of the ES in order to ensure a full risk allocation among institutions...

  19. The Calculator of Anti-Alzheimer's Diet. Macronutrients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Studnicki, Marcin; Woźniak, Grażyna; Stępkowski, Dariusz

    2016-01-01

    The opinions about optimal proportions of macronutrients in a healthy diet have changed significantly over the last century. At the same time nutritional sciences failed to provide strong evidence backing up any of the variety of views on macronutrient proportions. Herein we present an idea how these proportions can be calculated to find an optimal balance of macronutrients with respect to prevention of Alzheimer's Disease (AD) and dementia. These calculations are based on our published observation that per capita personal income (PCPI) in the USA correlates with age-adjusted death rates for AD (AADR). We have previously reported that PCPI through the period 1925-2005 correlated with AADR in 2005 in a remarkable, statistically significant oscillatory manner, as shown by changes in the correlation coefficient R (Roriginal). A question thus arises what caused the oscillatory behavior of Roriginal? What historical events in the life of 2005 AD victims had shaped their future with AD? Looking for the answers we found that, considering changes in the per capita availability of macronutrients in the USA in the period 1929-2005, we can mathematically explain the variability of Roriginal for each quarter of a human life. On the basis of multiple regression of Roriginal with regard to the availability of three macronutrients: carbohydrates, total fat, and protein, with or without alcohol, we propose seven equations (referred to as "the calculator" throughout the text) which allow calculating optimal changes in the proportions of macronutrients to reduce the risk of AD for each age group: youth, early middle age, late middle age and late age. The results obtained with the use of "the calculator" are grouped in a table (Table 4) of macronutrient proportions optimal for reducing the risk of AD in each age group through minimizing Rpredicted-i.e., minimizing the strength of correlation between PCPI and future AADR.

  20. RHEIN, Modular System for Reactor Design Calculation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reiche, Christian; Barz, Hansulrich; Kunzmann, Bernd; Seifert, Eberhard; Wand, Hartmut

    1990-01-01

    1 - Description of program or function: RHEIN is a modular reactor code system for neutron physics calculations. It consists of a small number of system codes for execution control, data management, and handling support, as well as of the physical calculation routines. The execution is controlled by input data containing mathematical and physical parameters and simple commands for routine calls and data manipulations. The calculation routines are in tune with one another and the system takes care of the data transfer between them. Cross-section libraries with self shielding parameters are added to the system. 2 - Method of solution: The calculation routines can be used for solving the following physics problems: - Calculation of cross-section sets for infinite mediums, taking into account chord length. - Zero-dimensional spectrum calculation in diffusion, P1, or B1 approximation. - One-dimensional calculation in diffusion, P1, or collision probability approximation. - Two-dimensional diffusion calculation. - Cell calculation by THERMOS. - Zone-wise homogenized group collapsing within zero, one, or two-dimensional models. - Normalization, summarizing, etc. - Output of cross-section sets to off systems Sn and Monte-Carlo calculations

  1. Risks from nuclear waste

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liljenzin, J.O.; Rydberg, J.

    1996-11-01

    The first part of this review discusses the importance of risk. If there is any relation between the emotional and rational risk perceptions (for example, it is believed that increased knowledge will decrease emotions), it will be a desirable goal for society, and the nuclear industry in particular, to improve the understanding by the laymen of the rational risks from nuclear energy. This review surveys various paths to a more common comprehension - perhaps a consensus - of the nuclear waste risks. The second part discusses radioactivity as a risk factor and concludes that it has no relation in itself to risk, but must be connected to exposure leading to a dose risk, i.e. a health detriment, which is commonly expressed in terms of cancer induction rate. Dose-effect relations are discussed in light of recent scientific debate. The third part of the report describes a number of hazard indexes for nuclear waste found in the literature and distinguishes between absolute and relative risk scales. The absolute risks as well as the relative risks have changed over time due to changes in radiological and metabolic data and by changes in the mode of calculation. To judge from the literature, the risk discussion is huge, even when it is limited to nuclear waste. It would be very difficult to make a comprehensive review and extract the essentials from that. Therefore, we have chosen to select some publications, out of the over 100, which we summarize rather comprehensively; in some cases we also include our remarks. 110 refs, 22 figs

  2. Risks from nuclear waste

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Liljenzin, J.O.; Rydberg, J. [Radiochemistry Consultant Group, Vaestra Froelunda (Sweden)

    1996-11-01

    The first part of this review discusses the importance of risk. If there is any relation between the emotional and rational risk perceptions (for example, it is believed that increased knowledge will decrease emotions), it will be a desirable goal for society, and the nuclear industry in particular, to improve the understanding by the laymen of the rational risks from nuclear energy. This review surveys various paths to a more common comprehension - perhaps a consensus - of the nuclear waste risks. The second part discusses radioactivity as a risk factor and concludes that it has no relation in itself to risk, but must be connected to exposure leading to a dose risk, i.e. a health detriment, which is commonly expressed in terms of cancer induction rate. Dose-effect relations are discussed in light of recent scientific debate. The third part of the report describes a number of hazard indexes for nuclear waste found in the literature and distinguishes between absolute and relative risk scales. The absolute risks as well as the relative risks have changed over time due to changes in radiological and metabolic data and by changes in the mode of calculation. To judge from the literature, the risk discussion is huge, even when it is limited to nuclear waste. It would be very difficult to make a comprehensive review and extract the essentials from that. Therefore, we have chosen to select some publications, out of the over 100, which we summarize rather comprehensively; in some cases we also include our remarks. 110 refs, 22 figs.

  3. Complex method to calculate objective assessments of information systems protection to improve expert assessments reliability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abdenov, A. Zh; Trushin, V. A.; Abdenova, G. A.

    2018-01-01

    The paper considers the questions of filling the relevant SIEM nodes based on calculations of objective assessments in order to improve the reliability of subjective expert assessments. The proposed methodology is necessary for the most accurate security risk assessment of information systems. This technique is also intended for the purpose of establishing real-time operational information protection in the enterprise information systems. Risk calculations are based on objective estimates of the adverse events implementation probabilities, predictions of the damage magnitude from information security violations. Calculations of objective assessments are necessary to increase the reliability of the proposed expert assessments.

  4. Argosy 4 - A programme for lattice calculations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    MacDougall, J.D.

    1965-07-01

    This report contains a detailed description of the methods of calculation used in the Argosy 4 computer programme, and of the input requirements and printed results produced by the programme. An outline of the physics of the Argosy method is given. Section 2 describes the lattice calculation, including the burn up calculation, section 3 describes the control rod calculation and section 4 the reflector calculation. In these sections the detailed equations solved by the programme are given. In section 5 input requirements are given, and in section 6 the printed output obtained from an Argosy calculation is described. In section 7 are noted the principal differences between Argosy 4 and earlier versions of the Argosy programme

  5. Ensuring the validity of calculated subcritical limits

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clark, H.K.

    1977-01-01

    The care taken at the Savannah River Laboratory and Plant to ensure the validity of calculated subcritical limits is described. Close attention is given to ANSI N16.1-1975, ''Validation of Calculational Methods for Nuclear Criticality Safety.'' The computer codes used for criticality safety computations, which are listed and are briefly described, have been placed in the SRL JOSHUA system to facilitate calculation and to reduce input errors. A driver module, KOKO, simplifies and standardizes input and links the codes together in various ways. For any criticality safety evaluation, correlations of the calculational methods are made with experiment to establish bias. Occasionally subcritical experiments are performed expressly to provide benchmarks. Calculated subcritical limits contain an adequate but not excessive margin to allow for uncertainty in the bias. The final step in any criticality safety evaluation is the writing of a report describing the calculations and justifying the margin

  6. Second reference calculation for the WIPP

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Branstetter, L.J.

    1985-03-01

    Results of the second reference calculation for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) project using the dynamic relaxation finite element code SANCHO are presented. This reference calculation is intended to predict the response of a typical panel of excavated rooms designed for storage of nonheat-producing nuclear waste. Results are presented that include relevant deformations, relative clay seam displacements, and stress and strain profiles. This calculation is a particular solution obtained by a computer code, which has proven analytic capabilities when compared with other structural finite element codes. It is hoped that the results presented here will be useful in providing scoping values for defining experiments and for developing instrumentation. It is also hoped that the calculation will be useful as part of an exercise in developing a methodology for performing important design calculations by more than one analyst using more than one computer code, and for defining internal Quality Assurance (QA) procedures for such calculations. 27 refs., 15 figs

  7. Methodology of shielding calculation for nuclear reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maiorino, J.R.; Mendonca, A.G.; Otto, A.C.; Yamaguchi, Mitsuo

    1982-01-01

    A methodology of calculation that coupling a serie of computer codes in a net that make the possibility to calculate the radiation, neutron and gamma transport, is described, for deep penetration problems, typical of nuclear reactor shielding. This net of calculation begining with the generation of constant multigroups, for neutrons and gamma, by the AMPX system, coupled to ENDF/B-IV data library, the transport calculation of these radiations by ANISN, DOT 3.5 and Morse computer codes, up to the calculation of absorbed doses and/or equivalents buy SPACETRAN code. As examples of the calculation method, results from benchmark n 0 6 of Shielding Benchmark Problems - ORNL - RSIC - 25, namely Neutron and Secondary Gamma Ray fluence transmitted through a Slab of Borated Polyethylene, are presented. (Author) [pt

  8. Benchmarking criticality safety calculations with subcritical experiments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mihalczo, J.T.

    1984-06-01

    Calculation of the neutron multiplication factor at delayed criticality may be necessary for benchmarking calculations but it may not be sufficient. The use of subcritical experiments to benchmark criticality safety calculations could result in substantial savings in fuel material costs for experiments. In some cases subcritical configurations could be used to benchmark calculations where sufficient fuel to achieve delayed criticality is not available. By performing a variety of measurements with subcritical configurations, much detailed information can be obtained which can be compared directly with calculations. This paper discusses several measurements that can be performed with subcritical assemblies and presents examples that include comparisons between calculation and experiment where possible. Where not, examples from critical experiments have been used but the measurement methods could also be used for subcritical experiments

  9. Radiation damage calculations for compound materials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Greenwood, L.R.

    1990-01-01

    This paper reports on the SPECOMP computer code, developed to calculate neutron-induced displacement damage cross sections for compound materials such as alloys, insulators, and ceramic tritium breeders for fusion reactors. These new calculations rely on recoil atom energy distributions previously computed with the DISCS computer code, the results of which are stored in SPECTER computer code master libraries. All reaction channels were considered in the DISCS calculations and the neutron cross sections were taken from ENDF/B-V. Compound damage calculations with SPECOMP thus do not need to perform any recoil atom calculations and consequently need no access to ENDF or other neutron data bases. The calculations proceed by determining secondary displacements for each combination of recoil atom and matrix atom using the Lindhard partition of the recoil energy to establish the damage energy

  10. Numerical calculation of the Fresnel transform.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelly, Damien P

    2014-04-01

    In this paper, we address the problem of calculating Fresnel diffraction integrals using a finite number of uniformly spaced samples. General and simple sampling rules of thumb are derived that allow the user to calculate the distribution for any propagation distance. It is shown how these rules can be extended to fast-Fourier-transform-based algorithms to increase calculation efficiency. A comparison with other theoretical approaches is made.

  11. Nuclear data preparation and discrete ordinates calculation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carmignani, B.

    1980-01-01

    These lectures deal with the use of the GAM-GATHER and GAM-THERMOS chains for the calculation of lattice cross sections and within use of the discrete ordinates one dimensional ANISN code for the calculation of criticality and flux distribution of the cell and of the whole reactor. As an example the codes are applied to the calculation of a PWR. Results of different approximations are compared. (author)

  12. Calculation methods for determining dose equivalent

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Endres, G.W.R.; Tanner, J.E.; Scherpelz, R.I.; Hadlock, D.E.

    1988-01-01

    A series of calculations of neutron fluence as a function of energy in an anthropomorphic phantom was performed to develop a system for determining effective dose equivalent for external radiation sources. critical organ dose equivalents are calculated and effective dose equivalents are determined using ICRP-26 methods. Quality factors based on both present definitions and ICRP-40 definitions are used in the analysis. The results of these calculations are presented and discussed

  13. Feasibility study on embedded transport core calculations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ivanov, B.; Zikatanov, L.; Ivanov, K.

    2007-01-01

    The main objective of this study is to develop an advanced core calculation methodology based on embedded diffusion and transport calculations. The scheme proposed in this work is based on embedded diffusion or SP 3 pin-by-pin local fuel assembly calculation within the framework of the Nodal Expansion Method (NEM) diffusion core calculation. The SP 3 method has gained popularity in the last 10 years as an advanced method for neutronics calculation. NEM is a multi-group nodal diffusion code developed, maintained and continuously improved at the Pennsylvania State University. The developed calculation scheme is a non-linear iteration process, which involves cross-section homogenization, on-line discontinuity factors generation, and boundary conditions evaluation by the global solution passed to the local calculation. In order to accomplish the local calculation, a new code has been developed based on the Finite Elements Method (FEM), which is capable of performing both diffusion and SP 3 calculations. The new code will be used in the framework of the NEM code in order to perform embedded pin-by-pin diffusion and SP 3 calculations on fuel assembly basis. The development of the diffusion and SP 3 FEM code is presented first following by its application to several problems. Description of the proposed embedded scheme is provided next as well as the obtained preliminary results of the C3 MOX benchmark. The results from the embedded calculations are compared with direct pin-by-pin whole core calculations in terms of accuracy and efficiency followed by conclusions made about the feasibility of the proposed embedded approach. (authors)

  14. Reactor calculation benchmark PCA blind test results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kam, F.B.K.; Stallmann, F.W.

    1980-01-01

    Further improvement in calculational procedures or a combination of calculations and measurements is necessary to attain 10 to 15% (1 sigma) accuracy for neutron exposure parameters (flux greater than 0.1 MeV, flux greater than 1.0 MeV, and dpa). The calculational modeling of power reactors should be benchmarked in an actual LWR plant to provide final uncertainty estimates for end-of-life predictions and limitations for plant operations. 26 references, 14 figures, 6 tables

  15. Reactor calculation benchmark PCA blind test results

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kam, F.B.K.; Stallmann, F.W.

    1980-01-01

    Further improvement in calculational procedures or a combination of calculations and measurements is necessary to attain 10 to 15% (1 sigma) accuracy for neutron exposure parameters (flux greater than 0.1 MeV, flux greater than 1.0 MeV, and dpa). The calculational modeling of power reactors should be benchmarked in an actual LWR plant to provide final uncertainty estimates for end-of-life predictions and limitations for plant operations. 26 references, 14 figures, 6 tables.

  16. Large scale calculations for hadron spectroscopy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rebbi, C.

    1985-01-01

    The talk reviews some recent Monte Carlo calculations for Quantum Chromodynamics, performed on Euclidean lattices of rather large extent. Purpose of the calculations is to provide accurate determinations of quantities, such as interquark potentials or mass eigenvalues, which are relevant for hadronic spectroscopy. Results obtained in quenched QCD on 16 3 x 32 lattices are illustrated, and a discussion of computational resources and techniques required for the calculations is presented. 18 refs.,3 figs., 2 tabs

  17. Calculation of saturated hydraulic conductivity of bentonite

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    He Jun

    2006-01-01

    Hydraulic conductivity test has some defects such as weak repeatability, time-consuming. Taking bentonite as dual porous media, the calculation formula of the distance, d 2 , between montmorillonite in intraparticle pores is deduced. Improved calculated method of hydraulic conductivity is obtained using d 2 and Poiseuille law. The method is valid through the comparison with results of test and other methods. The method is very convenient to calculate hydraulic conductivity of bentonite of certain montmorillonite content and void ratio. (authors)

  18. Temperature Calculations in the Coastal Modeling System

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-04-01

    ERDC/CHL CHETN-IV-110 April 2017 Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited . Temperature Calculations in the Coastal Modeling...tide) and river discharge at model boundaries, wave radiation stress, and wind forcing over a model computational domain. Physical processes calculated...calculated in the CMS using the following meteorological parameters: solar radiation, cloud cover, air temperature, wind speed, and surface water temperature

  19. Calculation of the Moments of Polygons.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1987-06-01

    2.1) VowUK-1N0+IDIO TUUNTKPlNO.YKNO C Calculate AREA YKXK-YKPIND*IKNO-YKNO*XKP1NO AIKA-hEEA4YKXX C Calculate ACEIT ACENT (1)- ACEIT ( 1) VSUNI4TKIK... ACEIT (2) -ACENT(2) .VSUNYKXK C Calculate SECHON 3ECNON (1) -SCNON( 1) TKXK*(XX~PIdO*VSUNXKKO**2) SECNO(2) -SEn N(2) .yrf* (XKP114*YKP1MO.XKO*YXO+VB1hi

  20. Calculation of the BREN house shielding experiments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Woolson, William A.; Gritzner, Michael L.

    1987-01-01

    The BREN house transmission experiments provide an excellent set of measurements to validate the calculational procedures that will be used to derive house shielding estimates for the revised dosimetry of the survivors of the Hiroshima and Nagasaki A-bombs. The BREN experiments were performed in realistic full scale models of Japanese residences. Although the radiation spectra and relative intensities of neutrons and gamma rays incident on the houses from the HPRR and the 60 Co source are not appropriate for direct application to the A-bomb survivors, they cover the full energy range of importance. The codes and calculations required to compare with BREN experiments are the same as those needed for the A-bomb dosimetry. They consist of a two-dimensional discrete-ordinates calculation of the free field coupled to an adjoint Monte Carlo calculation in detailed house geometry. The agreement obtained between calculations and the experiments is excellent for neutrons and 60 Co gamma rays. Every house transmission calculation spanning simple to complex configurations and detector locations for the 60 Co and HPRR was within an acceptable margin of error. The gamma-ray TF calculations for the reactor source did not agree well with the experiments. Analysis of this discrepancy, however, strongly indicates that the problem probably does not reside in the calculational procedure but in the measurements themselves. In conclusion, it is believed that the excellent agreement of our calculations with the BREN experiments validates the calculational procedure which is planed to be applied o estimating the house shielding for survivors of the Hiroshima and Nagasaki A-bombs. Certainly, the calculations for Hiroshima and Nagasaki will involve modifications to the code used for the computations reported here, but to the extent that these modifications involve increased calculational complexity to treat more realistic materials and configurations, the benchmark established by these

  1. Comparison of RESRAD with hand calculations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rittmann, P.D.

    1995-09-01

    This report is a continuation of an earlier comparison done with two other computer programs, GENII and PATHRAE. The dose calculations by the two programs were compared with each other and with hand calculations. These band calculations have now been compared with RESRAD Version 5.41 to examine the use of standard models and parameters in this computer program. The hand calculations disclosed a significant computational error in RESRAD. The Pu-241 ingestion doses are five orders of magnitude too small. In addition, the external doses from some nuclides differ greatly from expected values. Both of these deficiencies have been corrected in later versions of RESRAD

  2. Calculation of Critical Temperatures by Empirical Formulae

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Trzaska J.

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents formulas used to calculate critical temperatures of structural steels. Equations that allow calculating temperatures Ac1, Ac3, Ms and Bs were elaborated based on the chemical composition of steel. To elaborate the equations the multiple regression method was used. Particular attention was paid to the collection of experimental data which was required to calculate regression coefficients, including preparation of data for calculation. The empirical data set included more than 500 chemical compositions of structural steel and has been prepared based on information available in literature on the subject.

  3. Range calculations using multigroup transport methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoffman, T.J.; Robinson, M.T.; Dodds, H.L. Jr.

    1979-01-01

    Several aspects of radiation damage effects in fusion reactor neutron and ion irradiation environments are amenable to treatment by transport theory methods. In this paper, multigroup transport techniques are developed for the calculation of particle range distributions. These techniques are illustrated by analysis of Au-196 atoms recoiling from (n,2n) reactions with gold. The results of these calculations agree very well with range calculations performed with the atomistic code MARLOWE. Although some detail of the atomistic model is lost in the multigroup transport calculations, the improved computational speed should prove useful in the solution of fusion material design problems

  4. Pile Load Capacity – Calculation Methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wrana Bogumił

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The article is a review of the current problems of the foundation pile capacity calculations. The article considers the main principles of pile capacity calculations presented in Eurocode 7 and other methods with adequate explanations. Two main methods are presented: α – method used to calculate the short-term load capacity of piles in cohesive soils and β – method used to calculate the long-term load capacity of piles in both cohesive and cohesionless soils. Moreover, methods based on cone CPTu result are presented as well as the pile capacity problem based on static tests.

  5. Some calculator programs for particle physics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wohl, C.G.

    1982-01-01

    Seven calculator programs that do simple chores that arise in elementary particle physics are given. LEGENDRE evaluates the Legendre polynomial series Σa/sub n/P/sub n/(x) at a series of values of x. ASSOCIATED LEGENDRE evaluates the first-associated Legendre polynomial series Σb/sub n/P/sub n/ 1 (x) at a series of values of x. CONFIDENCE calculates confidence levels for chi 2 , Gaussian, or Poisson probability distributions. TWO BODY calculates the c.m. energy, the initial- and final-state c.m. momenta, and the extreme values of t and u for a 2-body reaction. ELLIPSE calculates coordinates of points for drawing an ellipse plot showing the kinematics of a 2-body reaction or decay. DALITZ RECTANGULAR calculates coordinates of points on the boundary of a rectangular Dalitz plot. DALITZ TRIANGULAR calculates coordinates of points on the boundary of a triangular Dalitz plot. There are short versions of CONFIDENCE (EVEN N and POISSON) that calculate confidence levels for the even-degree-of-freedom-chi 2 and the Poisson cases, and there is a short version of TWO BODY (CM) that calculates just the c.m. energy and initial-state momentum. The programs are written for the HP-97 calculator

  6. Direct calculation of wind turbine tip loss

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wood, D.H.; Okulov, Valery; Bhattacharjee, D.

    2016-01-01

    . We develop three methods for the direct calculation of the tip loss. The first is the computationally expensive calculation of the velocities induced by the helicoidal wake which requires the evaluation of infinite sums of products of Bessel functions. The second uses the asymptotic evaluation......The usual method to account for a finite number of blades in blade element calculations of wind turbine performance is through a tip loss factor. Most analyses use the tip loss approximation due to Prandtl which is easily and cheaply calculated but is known to be inaccurate at low tip speed ratio...

  7. Reaction rate calculations via transmission coefficients

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Feit, M.D.; Alder, B.J.

    1985-01-01

    The transmission coefficient of a wavepacket traversing a potential barrier can be determined by steady state calculations carried out in imaginary time instead of by real time dynamical calculations. The general argument is verified for the Eckart barrier potential by a comparison of transmission coefficients calculated from real and imaginary time solutions of the Schroedinger equation. The correspondence demonstrated here allows a formulation for the reaction rate that avoids difficulties due to both rare events and explicitly time dependent calculations. 5 refs., 2 figs

  8. Core physics calculation and analysis for SNRE

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xie Jiachun; Zhao Shouzhi; Jia Baoshan

    2010-01-01

    Five different precise calculation models have been set up for Small Nuclear Rocket Engine (SNRE) core based on MCNP code, and then the effective multiplication constant, drum control worth and power distribution were calculated. The results from different models indicate that the model in which elements are homogeneous could be used in the reactivity calculation, but a detailed description of elements have to be used in the element internal power distribution calculation. The results of physics parameters show that the basic characteristics of SNRE are reasonable. The drum control worth is sufficient. The power distribution is symmetrical and reasonable. All of the parameters can satisfy the design requirement. (authors)

  9. Fast optimization and dose calculation in scanned ion beam therapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hild, S.; Graeff, C.; Trautmann, J.; Kraemer, M.; Zink, K.; Durante, M.; Bert, C.

    2014-01-01

    Purpose: Particle therapy (PT) has advantages over photon irradiation on static tumors. An increased biological effectiveness and active target conformal dose shaping are strong arguments for PT. However, the sensitivity to changes of internal geometry complicates the use of PT for moving organs. In case of interfractionally moving objects adaptive radiotherapy (ART) concepts known from intensity modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) can be adopted for PT treatments. One ART strategy is to optimize a new treatment plan based on daily image data directly before a radiation fraction is delivered [treatment replanning (TRP)]. Optimizing treatment plans for PT using a scanned beam is a time consuming problem especially for particles other than protons where the biological effective dose has to be calculated. For the purpose of TRP, fast optimization and fast dose calculation have been implemented into the GSI in-house treatment planning system (TPS) TRiP98. Methods: This work reports about the outcome of a code analysis that resulted in optimization of the calculation processes as well as implementation of routines supporting parallel execution of the code. To benchmark the new features, the calculation time for therapy treatment planning has been studied. Results: Compared to the original version of the TPS, calculation times for treatment planning (optimization and dose calculation) have been improved by a factor of 10 with code optimization. The parallelization of the TPS resulted in a speedup factor of 12 and 5.5 for the original version and the code optimized version, respectively. Hence the total speedup of the new implementation of the authors' TPS yielded speedup factors up to 55. Conclusions: The improved TPS is capable of completing treatment planning for ion beam therapy of a prostate irradiation considering organs at risk in this has been overseen in the review process. Also see below 6 min

  10. Risk perception in planning

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Roh, S K

    1987-01-01

    The general public's perception of the risks involved with hazardous industries is increasing, especially in countries that high environmental amenity characteristics. This increased public awareness of risk may be an important factor in the future of countries who produce a large quantity of petroleum and chemical products. However, existing decision-making processes for determining safety controls do not take sufficient account of the community perception of risk. Identification of perceived risk levels could contribute to the determination of safe land-use planning policies and practices. The objective of land-use planning for hazardous industries is to reduce the gap between the calculated or technical assessment of risk and the risk as perceived by the community. This also facilitates a balanced approach in the decision making process between meeting industry requirements and community concerns. The comprehensive analysis presented in this study, based on a questionnaire given to residents in each of the three study areas (Australia, Japan and Korea), focused on identifying and measuring the respondent's understanding of the risk posed by nearby hazardous industrial developments.

  11. Hysterectomy and its impact on the calculated incidence of cervical cancer and screening coverage in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lam, Janni Uyen Hoa; Lynge, Elsebeth; Njor, Sisse Helle

    2015-01-01

    sense to determine the indicators also for the true at-risk populations. We described the frequency of total hysterectomy in Denmark and its impact on the calculated incidence of cervical cancer and the screening coverage. MATERIAL AND METHODS: With data from five Danish population-based registries......% (adjusted). In Denmark, hysterectomies do not have a large overall impact on the calculated cancer incidence and screening coverage. Nevertheless, at ≥ 65 years adjusted rates would increase by almost 20% compared to unadjusted rates. This suggests that calculating disease risks per organ-years may have......, the incidence rate of cervical cancer and the screening coverage for women aged 23-64 years on 31 December 2010 were calculated with and without adjustments for hysterectomies undertaken for reasons other than cervical cancer. They were calculated as the number of cases divided by 1) the total number of woman...

  12. Occupational risk of building construction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aneziris, O.N.; Topali, E.; Papazoglou, I.A.

    2012-01-01

    This paper presents the quantification of occupational risk of a building construction project. Risk assessment is based on the Occupational Risk Model (ORCA) developed under the Workgroup Occupational Risk Model project (WORM), in the Netherlands, for quantifying occupational risk. This model assesses occupational risk of a worker, by taking into account his various tasks, activities and their hazards. Risk is evaluated for three types of consequences: recoverable injury, permanent injury and death. The occupational risk model is based on a set of 63 bowties, which assess risk owing to different hazards such as fall from ladder, scaffold, roofs, falling object, struck by moving vehicle, contact by moving parts, etc. ORCA calculates the risk profile of a building construction site, consisting of thirty-eight workers in different job positions, such as operators of excavators, loaders, compaction equipment, workers in excavation and framing phases, etc. All risk profiles of workers have been quantified and jobs have been ranked according to their risk. Workers installing timber formworks have the highest fatality risk (1.57×10 −3 /yr), followed by the workers installing reinforcement (1.52×10 −3 /yr).

  13. Development of the code for filter calculation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gritzay, O.O.; Vakulenko, M.M.

    2012-01-01

    This paper describes a calculation method, which commonly used in the Neutron Physics Department to develop a new neutron filter or to improve the existing neutron filter. This calculation is the first step of the traditional filter development procedure. It allows easy selection of the qualitative and quantitative contents of a composite filter in order to receive the filtered neutron beam with given parameters

  14. The Monte Carlo applied for calculation dose

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peixoto, J.E.

    1988-01-01

    The Monte Carlo method is showed for the calculation of absorbed dose. The trajectory of the photon is traced simulating sucessive interaction between the photon and the substance that consist the human body simulator. The energy deposition in each interaction of the simulator organ or tissue per photon is also calculated. (C.G.C.) [pt

  15. Thermohydraulic calculations of PWR primary circuits

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Botelho, D.A.

    1984-01-01

    Some mathematical and numerical models from Retran computer codes aiming to simulate reactor transients, are presented. The equations used for calculating one-dimensional flow are integrated using mathematical methods from Flash code, with steam code to correlate the variables from thermodynamic state. The algorithm obtained was used for calculating a PWR reactor. (E.G.) [pt

  16. Calculation of resonance integral for fuel cluster

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Remsak, S.

    1969-01-01

    The procedure for calculating the shielding correction, formulated in the previous paper [6], was broadened and applied for a cluster of cylindrical rods. The sam analytical method as in the previous paper was applied. A combination of Gauss method with the method of Almgren and Porn used for solving the same type of integral was used to calculate the geometry functions. CLUSTER code was written for ZUSE-Z-23 computer to calculate the shielding corrections for pairs of fuel rods in the cluster. Computing time for one pair of fuel rods depends on the number of closely placed rod, and for two closely placed rods it is about 3 hours. Calculations were done for clusters containing 7 and 19 UO 2 rods. results show that calculated values of resonance integrals are somewhat higher than the values obtained by Helstrand empirical formula. Taking into account the results for two rods from the previous paper it can be noted that the calculated and empirical values for clusters with 2 and 7 rods are in agreement since the deviations do not exceed the limits of experimental error (±2%). In case of larger cluster with 19 rods deviations are higher than the experimental error. Most probably the calculated values exceed the experimental ones result from the fact that in this paper the shielding correction is calculated only in the region up to 1 keV [sr

  17. Calculation and definition of safety indicators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cristian, I.; Branzeu, N.; Vidican, D.; Vladescu, G.

    1997-01-01

    This paper presents, based on Cernavoda safety indicators proposal, the purpose definition and calculation formulas for each of the selected safety indicators. Five categories of safety indicators for Cernavoda Unit 1 were identified, namely: overall plant safety performance; initiating events; safety system availability, physical barrier integrity; indirect indicators. Definition, calculation and use of some safety indicators are shown in a tabular form. (authors)

  18. Molecular mechanics calculations on cobalt phthalocyanine dimers

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Heuts, J.P.A.; Schipper, E.T.W.M.; Piet, P.; German, A.L.

    1995-01-01

    In order to obtain insight into the structure of cobalt phthalocyanine dimers, molecular mechanics calculations were performed on dimeric cobalt phthalocyanine species. Molecular mechanics calculations are first presented on monomeric cobalt(II) phthalocyanine. Using the Tripos force field for the

  19. Radiation protection calculations for diagnostic medical equipment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Klueter, R.

    1992-01-01

    The standards DIN 6812 and DIN 6844 define the radiation protection requirements to be met by biomedical radiography equipment or systems for nuclear medicine. The paper explains the use of a specific computer program for radiation protection calculations. The program offers menu-controlled calculation, with free choice of the relevant nuclides. (DG) [de

  20. 40 CFR 1065.650 - Emission calculations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... field testing, you may calculate the ratio of total mass to total work, where these individual values... negative work rate values in the integration to calculate total work from that work path. Some work paths may result in a negative total work. Include negative total work values from any work path in the...

  1. CO2 calculator

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Claus Werner; Nielsen, Ole-Kenneth

    2009-01-01

    Many countries are in the process of mapping their national CO2 emissions, but only few have managed to produce an overall report at municipal level yet. Denmark, however, has succeeded in such a project. Using a new national IT-based calculation model, municipalities can calculate the extent...

  2. Local expressions for one-loop calculations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wasson, D.A.; Koonin, S.E.

    1991-01-01

    We develop local expressions for the contributions of the short-wavelength vacuum modes to the one-loop vacuum energy. These expressions significantly improve the convergence properties of various ''brute-force'' calculational methods. They also provide a continuous series of approximations that interpolate between the brute-force calculations and the derivative expansion

  3. GPU based acceleration of first principles calculation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tomono, H; Tsumuraya, K; Aoki, M; Iitaka, T

    2010-01-01

    We present a Graphics Processing Unit (GPU) accelerated simulations of first principles electronic structure calculations. The FFT, which is the most time-consuming part, is about 10 times accelerated. As the result, the total computation time of a first principles calculation is reduced to 15 percent of that of the CPU.

  4. Calculated Atomic Volumes of the Actinide Metals

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Skriver, H.; Andersen, O. K.; Johansson, B.

    1979-01-01

    The equilibrium atomic volume is calculated for the actinide metals. It is possible to account for the localization of the 5f electrons taking place in americium.......The equilibrium atomic volume is calculated for the actinide metals. It is possible to account for the localization of the 5f electrons taking place in americium....

  5. Reactor physics calculations on HTR type configurations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Klippel, H.T.; Hogenbirk, A.; Stad, R.C.L. van der; Janssen, A.J.; Kuijper, J.C.; Levin, P.

    1995-04-01

    In this paper a short description of the ECN nuclear analysis code system is given with respect to application in HTR reactor physics calculations. First results of calculations performed on the PROTEUS benchmark are shown. Also first results of a HTGR benchmark are given. (orig.).

  6. Reactor physics calculations on HTR type configurations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Klippel, H.T.; Hogenbirk, A.; Stad, R.C.L. van der; Janssen, A.J.; Kuijper, J.C.; Levin, P.

    1995-04-01

    In this paper a short description of the ECN nuclear analysis code system is given with respect to application in HTR reactor physics calculations. First results of calculations performed on the PROTEUS benchmark are shown. Also first results of a HTGR benchmark are given. (orig.)

  7. Calculated LET-Spectrum of Antiprotons

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bassler, Niels

    -LET components resulting from the annihilation. Though, the calculations of dose-averaged LET in the entry region may suggest that the RBE of antiprotons in the plateau region could significantly differ from unity. Materials and Methods Monte Carlo simulations using FLUKA were performed for calculating...

  8. First principles calculations for analysis martensitic transformations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harmon, B.N.; Zhao, G.L.; Ho, K.M.; Chan, C.T.; Ye, Y.Y.; Ding, Y.; Zhang, B.L.

    1993-01-01

    The change in crystal energy is calculated for atomic displacements corresponding to phonons, elastic shears, and lattice transformations. Anomalies in the phonon dispersion curves of NiAl and NiTi are analyzed and recent calculations for TiPd alloys are presented

  9. Data base to compare calculations and observations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tichler, J.L.

    1985-01-01

    Meteorological and climatological data bases were compared with known tritium release points and diffusion calculations to determine if calculated concentrations could replace measure concentrations at the monitoring stations. Daily tritium concentrations were monitored at 8 stations and 16 possible receptors. Automated data retrieval strategies are listed

  10. Surrounding Risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mogens Steffensen

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Research in insurance and finance was always intersecting although they were originally and generally viewed as separate disciplines. Insurance is about transferring risks between parties such that the burdens of risks are borne by those who can. This makes insurance transactions a beneficial activity for the society. It calls on detection, modelling, valuation, and controlling of risks. One of the main sources of control is diversification of risks and in that respect it becomes an issue in itself to clarify diversifiability of risks. However, many diversifiable risks are not, by nature or by contract design, separable from non-diversifiable risks that are, on the other hand, sometimes traded in financial markets and sometimes not. A key observation is that the economic risk came before the insurance contract: Mother earth destroys and kills incidentally and mercilessly, but the uncertainty of economic consequences can be more or less cleverly distributed by the introduction of an insurance market.

  11. Risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Correa Lizarazu, X.

    2013-01-01

    The power point presentation Colombia risk evaluation experiences, sanitarian regulations evolution, chemical dangers food, biological dangers food, codex alimentarius, trade, industrial effects, dangers identification, data collection and risk profile

  12. Risk Factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... cells do not invade nearby tissues or spread. Risk Factors Key Points Factors That are Known to ... chemicals . Factors That are Known to Increase the Risk of Cancer Cigarette Smoking and Tobacco Use Tobacco ...

  13. Calculation of neutron kerma in tissues

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vega C, H.R.; Manzanares A, E.

    2004-01-01

    Neutron kerma of normal and tumor tissues has been calculated using the tissues elemental concentration. A program developed in Math cad contains the kerma factors of C, H, O, N, Na, Mg, P, S, Cl, K, etc. that are in normal and tumor human tissues. Having the elemental composition of any human tissue the neutron kerma can be calculated. The program was tested using the elemental composition of tumor tissues such as sarcoma, melanoma, carcinoma and adenoid cystic, also neutron kerma for adipose and muscle tissue for normal adult was calculated. The results are in agreement with those published in literature. The neutron kerma for water was also calculated because in some dosimetric calculations water is used to describe normal and tumor tissues. From this comparison was found that at larger energies kerma factors are approximately the same, but energies less than 100 eV the differences are large. (Author)

  14. Dose calculation system for remotely supporting radiotherapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saito, K.; Kunieda, E.; Narita, Y.; Kimura, H.; Hirai, M.; Deloar, H. M.; Kaneko, K.; Ozaki, M.; Fujisaki, T.; Myojoyama, A.; Saitoh, H.

    2005-01-01

    The dose calculation system IMAGINE is being developed keeping in mind remotely supporting external radiation therapy using photon beams. The system is expected to provide an accurate picture of the dose distribution in a patient body, using a Monte Carlo calculation that employs precise models of the patient body and irradiation head. The dose calculation will be performed utilising super-parallel computing at the dose calculation centre, which is equipped with the ITBL computer, and the calculated results will be transferred through a network. The system is intended to support the quality assurance of current, widely carried out radiotherapy and, further, to promote the prevalence of advanced radiotherapy. Prototypes of the modules constituting the system have already been constructed and used to obtain basic data that are necessary in order to decide on the concrete design of the system. The final system will be completed in 2007. (authors)

  15. Non-perturbative background field calculations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stephens, C.R.; Department of Physics, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, Utah 84112)

    1988-01-01

    New methods are developed for calculating one loop functional determinants in quantum field theory. Instead of relying on a calculation of all the eigenvalues of the small fluctuation equation, these techniques exploit the ability of the proper time formalism to reformulate an infinite dimensional field theoretic problem into a finite dimensional covariant quantum mechanical analog, thereby allowing powerful tools such as the method of Jacobi fields to be used advantageously in a field theory setting. More generally the methods developed herein should be extremely valuable when calculating quantum processes in non-constant background fields, offering a utilitarian alternative to the two standard methods of calculation: perturbation theory in the background field or taking the background field into account exactly. The formalism developed also allows for the approximate calculation of covariances of partial differential equations from a knowledge of the solutions of a homogeneous ordinary differential equation. copyright 1988 Academic Press, Inc

  16. The FLUKA atmospheric neutrino flux calculation

    CERN Document Server

    Battistoni, G.; Montaruli, T.; Sala, P.R.

    2003-01-01

    The 3-dimensional (3-D) calculation of the atmospheric neutrino flux by means of the FLUKA Monte Carlo model is here described in all details, starting from the latest data on primary cosmic ray spectra. The importance of a 3-D calculation and of its consequences have been already debated in a previous paper. Here instead the focus is on the absolute flux. We stress the relevant aspects of the hadronic interaction model of FLUKA in the atmospheric neutrino flux calculation. This model is constructed and maintained so to provide a high degree of accuracy in the description of particle production. The accuracy achieved in the comparison with data from accelerators and cross checked with data on particle production in atmosphere certifies the reliability of shower calculation in atmosphere. The results presented here can be already used for analysis by current experiments on atmospheric neutrinos. However they represent an intermediate step towards a final release, since this calculation does not yet include the...

  17. Text book of dose calculation for operators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aoyagi, Haruki; Gonda, Kozo

    1979-07-01

    This is a text book of dose calculation for the operators of the reprocessing factory of Power Reactor and Nuclear Fuel Development Corporation. The radiations considered are beta-ray and gamma-ray. The method used is a point attenuation nuclear integral method. Radiation sources are considered as the assemblies of point sources. Dose from each point source is calculated, then, total dose is obtained by the integration for all sources. Attenuation is calculated by considering the attenuation owing to distance and the absorption by absorbers. The build-up factor is introduced for the correction for scattered gamma-ray. The build-up factor is given in a table for various scatterers. The operators are able to calculate dose by themselves. The results of integral calculation expressed with formulas are given in graphs. (Kato, T.)

  18. Technological risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Klinke, A.; Renn, O.

    1998-01-01

    The empirical part about the technological risks deals with different technologies: nuclear energy, early warning systems of nuclear weapons and NBC-weapons, and electromagnetic fields. The potential of damage, the contemporary management strategies and the relevant characteristics will be described for each technology: risks of nuclear energy; risks of early warning systems of nuclear weapons and NBC-weapons; risks of electromagnetic fields. (authors)

  19. Technological risks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Klinke, A.; Renn, O. [Center of Technology Assessment in Baden-Wuerttemberg, Stuttgart (Germany)

    1998-07-01

    The empirical part about the technological risks deals with different technologies: nuclear energy, early warning systems of nuclear weapons and NBC-weapons, and electromagnetic fields. The potential of damage, the contemporary management strategies and the relevant characteristics will be described for each technology: risks of nuclear energy; risks of early warning systems of nuclear weapons and NBC-weapons; risks of electromagnetic fields. (authors)

  20. HP-67 calculator programs for thermodynamic data and phase diagram calculations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brewer, L.

    1978-01-01

    This report is a supplement to a tabulation of the thermodynamic and phase data for the 100 binary systems of Mo with the elements from H to Lr. The calculations of thermodynamic data and phase equilibria were carried out from 5000 0 K to low temperatures. This report presents the methods of calculation used. The thermodynamics involved is rather straightforward and the reader is referred to any advanced thermodynamic text. The calculations were largely carried out using an HP-65 programmable calculator. In this report, those programs are reformulated for use with the HP-67 calculator; great reduction in the number of programs required to carry out the calculation results

  1. Risks of multiple sclerosis in relatives of patients in Flanders, Belgium

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Carton, H; Vlietinck, R; Debruyne, J; DeKeyser, J; DHooghe, MB; Loos, R; Medaer, R; Truyen, L; Yee, IML; Sadovnick, AD

    Objectives - To calculate age adjusted risks for multiple sclerosis in relatives of Flemish patients with multiple sclerosis. Methods - Lifetime risks were calculated using the maximum likelihood approach. Results - Vital information was obtained on 674 probands with multiple sclerosis in Flanders

  2. Climatic risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lamarre, D.; Favier, R.; Bourg, D.; Marchand, J.P.

    2005-04-01

    The climatic risks are analyzed in this book under the cross-vision of specialists of different domains: philosophy, sociology, economic history, law, geography, climatology and hydrology. The prevention of risks and the precautionary principle are presented first. Then, the relations between climatic risk and geography are analyzed using the notion of territoriality. The territory aspect is in the core of the present day debates about the geography of risks, in particular when the links between climate change and public health are considered. Then the main climatic risks are presented. Droughts and floods are the most damaging ones and the difficulties of prevention-indemnification coupling remain important. (J.S.)

  3. Nuclear calculation of the thorium reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hirakawa, Naohiro

    1998-01-01

    Even if for a reactor using thorium (and 233-U), its nuclear design calculation procedure is similar to the case using conventional 235-U, 238-U and plutonium. As nuclear composition varies with time on operation of nuclear reactor, calculation of its mean cross section should be conducted in details. At that time, one-group cross section obtained by integration over a whole of energy range is used for small member group. And, as the nuclear data for a base of its calculation is already prepared by JENDL3.2 and nuclear data library derived from it, the nuclear calculation of a nuclear reactor using thorium has no problem. From such a veiwpoint, IAEA has organized a coordinated research program of 'Potential of Th-based Fuel Cycles to Constrain Pu and to reduce Long-term Waste Toxicities' since 1996. All nations entering this program were regulated so as to institute by selecting a nuclear fuel cycle thinking better by each nation and to examine what cycle is expected by comparing their results. For a promise to conduct such neutral comparison, a comparison of bench mark calculations aiming at PWR was conducted to protect that the obtained results became different because of different calculation method and cross section adopted by each nation. Therefore, it was promoted by entrance of China, Germany, India, Israel, Japan, Korea, Russia and USA. The SWAT system developed by Tohoku University is used for its calculation code, by using which calculated results on the bench mark calculation at the fist and second stages and the nuclear reactor were reported. (G.K.)

  4. UPDATING UNDER RISK CONDITION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    VĂDUVA CECILIA ELENA

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available The foundation for future firm development is investment. Agents have a risk aversion requiring higher returns as the risks associated with the project will be greater. The investment decision determines the market firm's affirmation, increasing the market share, dominating the market. Making an investment at a certain point will determine certain cash flows throughout the life of the project, and a residual value can be obtained when it is taken out of service. The flows and payments for the investment project can be more easily tracked if we are proposing a constant update rate. We will be able to analyze, based on various factors, three techniques for determining the discount rate for investment projects: the opportunity cost, the risk-free rate, and a series of risk premiums, the weighted average cost of capital. People without financial training make value judgments for investment projects based on other market opportunities, comparing the returns that any investment offers to other pay options. An investor has a sum of money he wants to make - if he does not invest in a project, he will invest in another, that will bring him a certain amount of money, choosing the most advantageous project by comparison. All projects are characterized by identical risks, and the agents are considered indifferent to the risks. The answer given by financial theory and practice to the disadvantage of rates in the opportunity cost category is the discount rate calculated as a sum of the risk-free rate and a risk premium, defining the risk as a factor whose action may cause a possible decrease in cash of the available flows. Higher objectivity is presented by the opportunity cost update rates of update because it refers to known variables but cannot be perfectly matched to the performance of the investment process.

  5. Risk management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chambers, David W

    2010-01-01

    Every plan contains risk. To proceed without planning some means of managing that risk is to court failure. The basic logic of risk is explained. It consists in identifying a threshold where some corrective action is necessary, the probability of exceeding that threshold, and the attendant cost should the undesired outcome occur. This is the probable cost of failure. Various risk categories in dentistry are identified, including lack of liquidity; poor quality; equipment or procedure failures; employee slips; competitive environments; new regulations; unreliable suppliers, partners, and patients; and threats to one's reputation. It is prudent to make investments in risk management to the extent that the cost of managing the risk is less than the probable loss due to risk failure and when risk management strategies can be matched to type of risk. Four risk management strategies are discussed: insurance, reducing the probability of failure, reducing the costs of failure, and learning. A risk management accounting of the financial meltdown of October 2008 is provided.

  6. Risk factors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dennery, M.; Dupont, M.A.

    2007-01-01

    This article deals with the development of risk management in the gas sector business: why a risk factor legal mention must precede any published financial information? Do gas companies have to face new risks? Is there specific risks bound to gas activities? Why companies want to master their risks? Is it mandatory or just a new habit? Do they expect a real benefit in return? These are the risk management questions that are analyzed in this article which is based on the public communication of 15 gas companies randomly selected over the world. The information comes from their annual reports or from documents available on their web sites. The intention of this document is not to be exhaustive or to make statistics but only to shade light on the risk factors of the gas sector. (J.S.)

  7. Electron and bremsstrahlung penetration and dose calculation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watts, J. W., Jr.; Burrell, M. O.

    1972-01-01

    Various techniques for the calculation of electron and bremsstrahlung dose deposition are described. Energy deposition, transmission, and reflection coefficients for electrons incident on plane slabs are presented, and methods for their use in electron dose calculations were developed. A method using the straight-ahead approximation was also developed, and the various methods were compared and found to be in good agreement. Both accurate and approximate methods of calculating bremsstrahlung dose were derived and compared. Approximation is found to give a good estimate of dose where the electron spectrum falls off exponentially with energy.

  8. Importance iteration in MORSE Monte Carlo calculations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kloosterman, J.L.; Hoogenboom, J.E.

    1994-01-01

    An expression to calculate point values (the expected detector response of a particle emerging from a collision or the source) is derived and implemented in the MORSE-SGC/S Monte Carlo code. It is outlined how these point values can be smoothed as a function of energy and as a function of the optical thickness between the detector and the source. The smoothed point values are subsequently used to calculate the biasing parameters of the Monte Carlo runs to follow. The method is illustrated by an example that shows that the obtained biasing parameters lead to a more efficient Monte Carlo calculation

  9. IAEA sodium void reactivity benchmark calculations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hill, R.N.; Finck, P.J.

    1992-01-01

    In this paper, the IAEA-1 992 ''Benchmark Calculation of Sodium Void Reactivity Effect in Fast Reactor Core'' problem is evaluated. The proposed design is a large axially heterogeneous oxide-fueled fast reactor as described in Section 2; the core utilizes a sodium plenum above the core to enhance leakage effects. The calculation methods used in this benchmark evaluation are described in Section 3. In Section 4, the calculated core performance results for the benchmark reactor model are presented; and in Section 5, the influence of steel and interstitial sodium heterogeneity effects is estimated

  10. Improvements for Monte Carlo burnup calculation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shenglong, Q.; Dong, Y.; Danrong, S.; Wei, L., E-mail: qiangshenglong@tsinghua.org.cn, E-mail: d.yao@npic.ac.cn, E-mail: songdr@npic.ac.cn, E-mail: luwei@npic.ac.cn [Nuclear Power Inst. of China, Cheng Du, Si Chuan (China)

    2015-07-01

    Monte Carlo burnup calculation is development trend of reactor physics, there would be a lot of work to be done for engineering applications. Based on Monte Carlo burnup code MOI, non-fuel burnup calculation methods and critical search suggestions will be mentioned in this paper. For non-fuel burnup, mixed burnup mode will improve the accuracy of burnup calculation and efficiency. For critical search of control rod position, a new method called ABN based on ABA which used by MC21 will be proposed for the first time in this paper. (author)

  11. RA-0 reactor. New neutronic calculations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rumis, D.; Leszczynski, F.

    1990-01-01

    An updating of the neutronic calculations performed at the RA-0 reactor, located at the Natural, Physical and Exact Sciences Faculty of Cordoba National University, are herein described. The techniques used for the calculation of a reactor like the RA-0 allows prediction in detail of the flux behaviour in the core's interior and in the reflector, which will be helpful for experiments design. In particular, the use of WIMSD4 code to make calculations on the reactor implies a novelty in the possible applications of this code to solve the problems that arise in practice. (Author) [es

  12. Calculating lattice thermal conductivity: a synopsis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fugallo, Giorgia; Colombo, Luciano

    2018-04-01

    We provide a tutorial introduction to the modern theoretical and computational schemes available to calculate the lattice thermal conductivity in a crystalline dielectric material. While some important topics in thermal transport will not be covered (including thermal boundary resistance, electronic thermal conduction, and thermal rectification), we aim at: (i) framing the calculation of thermal conductivity within the general non-equilibrium thermodynamics theory of transport coefficients, (ii) presenting the microscopic theory of thermal conduction based on the phonon picture and the Boltzmann transport equation, and (iii) outlining the molecular dynamics schemes to calculate heat transport. A comparative and critical addressing of the merits and drawbacks of each approach will be discussed as well.

  13. Neutronic parameters calculations of a CANDU reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zamonsky, G.

    1991-01-01

    Neutronic calculations that reproduce in a simplified way some aspects of a CANDU reactor design were performed. Starting from some prefixed reactor parameters, cylindrical and uniform iron adjuster rods were designed. An appropriate refueling scheme was established, defininig in a 2 zones model their dimensions and exit burnups. The calculations have been done using the codes WIMS-D4 (cell), SNOD (reactivity device simulations) and PUMA (reactor). Comparing with similar calculations done with codes and models usually employed for CANDU design, it is concluded that the models and methods used are appropriate. (Author) [es

  14. Ti-84 Plus graphing calculator for dummies

    CERN Document Server

    McCalla

    2013-01-01

    Get up-to-speed on the functionality of your TI-84 Plus calculator Completely revised to cover the latest updates to the TI-84 Plus calculators, this bestselling guide will help you become the most savvy TI-84 Plus user in the classroom! Exploring the standard device, the updated device with USB plug and upgraded memory (the TI-84 Plus Silver Edition), and the upcoming color screen device, this book provides you with clear, understandable coverage of the TI-84's updated operating system. Details the new apps that are available for download to the calculator via the USB cabl

  15. Relativistic multiple scattering X-alpha calculations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chermette, H.; Goursot, A.

    1986-01-01

    The necessity to include self-consistent relativistic corrections in molecular calculations has been pointed out for all compounds involving heavy atoms. Most of the changes in the electronic properties are due to the mass-velocity and the so-called Darwin terms so that the use of Wood and Boring's Hamiltonian is very convenient for this purpose as it can be easily included in MSXalpha programs. Although the spin orbit operator effects are only obtained by perturbation theory, the results compare fairly well with experiment and with other relativistic calculations, namely Hartree-Fock-Slater calculations

  16. Subcritical calculation of the nuclear material warehouse

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garcia M, T.; Mazon R, R.

    2009-01-01

    In this work the subcritical calculation of the nuclear material warehouse of the Reactor TRIGA Mark III labyrinth in the Mexico Nuclear Center is presented. During the adaptation of the nuclear warehouse (vault I), the fuel was temporarily changed to the warehouse (vault II) and it was also carried out the subcritical calculation for this temporary arrangement. The code used for the calculation of the effective multiplication factor, it was the Monte Carlo N-Particle Extended code known as MCNPX, developed by the National Laboratory of Los Alamos, for the particles transport. (Author)

  17. Hamming generalized corrector for reactivity calculation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Suescun-Diaz, Daniel; Ibarguen-Gonzalez, Maria C.; Figueroa-Jimenez, Jorge H.

    2014-01-01

    This work presents the Hamming method generalized corrector for numerically resolving the differential equation of delayed neutron precursor concentration from the point kinetics equations for reactivity calculation, without using the nuclear power history or the Laplace transform. A study was carried out of several correctors with their respective modifiers with different time step calculations, to offer stability and greater precision. Better results are obtained for some correctors than with other existing methods. Reactivity can be calculated with precision of the order h 5 , where h is the time step. (orig.)

  18. BN-600 Phase III benchmark calculations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hill, R.N.; Grimm, K.N.

    2002-01-01

    Calculations for a Hexagonal-Z model of the BN-600 reactor with a partial mixed oxide loading, based on a joint IPPE/OBMK loading configuration that contained three uranium enrichment zones and one plutonium enrichment zone in the core, have been performed at ANL. Control-rod worths and reactivity feedback coefficients were calculated using both homogeneous and heterogeneous models. These values were calculated with either first-order perturbation theory methods (Triangle-Z geometry), nodal eigenvalue differences (Hexagonal-Z geometry), or Monte Carlo eigenvalue differences. Both spatially-dependent and region integrated values are shown

  19. Assessment of seismic margin calculation methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kennedy, R.P.; Murray, R.C.; Ravindra, M.K.; Reed, J.W.; Stevenson, J.D.

    1989-03-01

    Seismic margin review of nuclear power plants requires that the High Confidence of Low Probability of Failure (HCLPF) capacity be calculated for certain components. The candidate methods for calculating the HCLPF capacity as recommended by the Expert Panel on Quantification of Seismic Margins are the Conservative Deterministic Failure Margin (CDFM) method and the Fragility Analysis (FA) method. The present study evaluated these two methods using some representative components in order to provide further guidance in conducting seismic margin reviews. It is concluded that either of the two methods could be used for calculating HCLPF capacities. 21 refs., 9 figs., 6 tabs

  20. Shielding calculations for the SNO detector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Earle, E.D.; Wong, P.Y.

    1987-05-01

    The gamma-ray background into the central D 2 O vessel of the SNO detector due to Th and U in the rock, concrete, and photomultipliers is calculated. A cylindrical geometry and concrete thicknesses of 0.5 and 1 m are assumed. The effect of adding boron to the concrete is also considered. It is concluded that backgrounds from (α,n) reactions can be reduced to the required level. These calculations will assist in finalizing the detector design but additional calculations will be required as new design details become known

  1. Importance iteration in MORSE Monte Carlo calculations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kloosterman, J.L.; Hoogenboom, J.E.

    1994-02-01

    An expression to calculate point values (the expected detector response of a particle emerging from a collision or the source) is derived and implemented in the MORSE-SGC/S Monte Carlo code. It is outlined how these point values can be smoothed as a function of energy and as a function of the optical thickness between the detector and the source. The smoothed point values are subsequently used to calculate the biasing parameters of the Monte Carlo runs to follow. The method is illustrated by an example, which shows that the obtained biasing parameters lead to a more efficient Monte Carlo calculation. (orig.)

  2. Radiation-damage calculations with NJOY

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    MacFarlane, R.E.; Muir, D.W.; Mann, F.W.

    1983-01-01

    Atomic displacement, gas production, transmutation, and nuclear heating can all be calculated with the NJOY nuclear data processing system using evaluated data in ENDF/B format. Using NJOY helps assure consistency between damage cross sections and those used for transport, and NJOY provides convenient interface formats for linking data to application codes. Unique features of the damage calculation include a simple momentum balance treatment for radiative capture and a new model for (n, particle) reactions based on statistical model calculations. Sample results for iron and nickel are given and compared with the results of other methods

  3. Recent skyshine calculations at Jefferson Lab

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Degtyarenko, P.

    1997-01-01

    New calculations of the skyshine dose distribution of neutrons and secondary photons have been performed at Jefferson Lab using the Monte Carlo method. The dose dependence on neutron energy, distance to the neutron source, polar angle of a source neutron, and azimuthal angle between the observation point and the momentum direction of a source neutron have been studied. The azimuthally asymmetric term in the skyshine dose distribution is shown to be important in the dose calculations around high-energy accelerator facilities. A parameterization formula and corresponding computer code have been developed which can be used for detailed calculations of the skyshine dose maps

  4. Calculation and measurement of fog droplet size

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Laali, A.R.; Courant, J.J.; Kleitz, A.

    1991-01-01

    This paper outlines the elements involved in calculation and measurement of fog droplet size in steam turbines. The condensation calculations are performed for a 600 MW LP fossil fired, and for a 900 MW LP nuclear turbine. A simplified method based on classical condensation theory is used for these calculations. The fog droplet size measurement are carried out downstream of the last moving blades of these turbines in order to validate the program. The comparison between the results could lead to a better understanding of the condensation process in steam turbines. Some large droplet (re-entrained droplet) measurements are also taken using a microvideo probe

  5. Equivalent-spherical-shield neutron dose calculations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Russell, G.J.; Robinson, H.

    1988-01-01

    Neutron doses through 162-cm-thick spherical shields were calculated to be 1090 and 448 mrem/h for regular and magnetite concrete, respectively. These results bracket the measured data, for reinforced regular concrete, of /approximately/600 mrem/h. The calculated fraction of the high-energy (>20 MeV) dose component also bracketed the experimental data. The measured and calculated doses were for a graphite beam stop bombarded with 100 nA of 800-MeV protons. 6 refs., 2 figs., 1 tab

  6. Fluidization calculation on nuclear fuel kernel coating

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sukarsono; Wardaya; Indra-Suryawan

    1996-01-01

    The fluidization of nuclear fuel kernel coating was calculated. The bottom of the reactor was in the from of cone on top of the cone there was a cylinder, the diameter of the cylinder for fluidization was 2 cm and at the upper part of the cylinder was 3 cm. Fluidization took place in the cone and the first cylinder. The maximum and the minimum velocity of the gas of varied kernel diameter, the porosity and bed height of varied stream gas velocity were calculated. The calculation was done by basic program

  7. The Association between 10-Year Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Diseases Risk Score Calculated Using 2013 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association Guidelines and Serum 25-Hydroxyvitamin D Level among Aged 40-79 Years in Korea: The Sixth Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Mun Hee; Kim, Young Sang; Oh, Hye Jin; Kwon, Yu Ri; Kim, Hye Won

    2018-05-01

    We examined the relationship between 10-year predicted atherosclerosis cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk score and 25-hydroxyvitamin D in Koreans aged 40-79 years. A population-based, cross-sectional design was used from data based on the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2014. A total of 1,134 healthy Koreans aged 40-79 years were included. A positive relationship between serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D level and ASCVD score was shown in women (β=0.015) after adjusting for central obesity, physical activity, and supplement intake. The chances of being in the moderate to high risk (risk group, ASCVD score ≥5%) with vitamin D sufficiency (serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D ≥20 ng/mL) was 1.267-fold (95% confidence interval, 1.039-1.595) greater than the chance of being included in the group with vitamin D deficiency (serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D <20 ng/mL) after adjustments in women. Our research indicated a significantly positive association between 25-hydroxyvitamin D and ASCVD score. Further detailed studies to evaluate this correlation are needed.

  8. Mathematical programmes for calculator type PTK 1072 to calculate the radioactive contamination in foods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Varga, E.; Visi, Gy.

    1982-01-01

    Mathematical programmes are given for calculator type PTK 1072 (Hungarian made), to make easier the lengthy calculations applied in examinations in laboratories for control of radioactive materials in food. Basic consideration of making a programme, the method, the mathematical formulae, the variations of calculation and control of program are shown by examples. Making programmes for calculators of other types, too, can be facilitated by adapting the basic consideration. (author)

  9. Learning to Calculate and Learning Mathematics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fearnley-Sander, Desmond

    1980-01-01

    A calculator solution of a simple computational problem is discussed with emphasis on its ramifications for the understanding of some fundamental theorems of pure mathematics and techniques of computing. (Author/MK)

  10. Benchmark calculations of power distribution within assemblies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cavarec, C.; Perron, J.F.; Verwaerde, D.; West, J.P.

    1994-09-01

    The main objective of this Benchmark is to compare different techniques for fine flux prediction based upon coarse mesh diffusion or transport calculations. We proposed 5 ''core'' configurations including different assembly types (17 x 17 pins, ''uranium'', ''absorber'' or ''MOX'' assemblies), with different boundary conditions. The specification required results in terms of reactivity, pin by pin fluxes and production rate distributions. The proposal for these Benchmark calculations was made by J.C. LEFEBVRE, J. MONDOT, J.P. WEST and the specification (with nuclear data, assembly types, core configurations for 2D geometry and results presentation) was distributed to correspondents of the OECD Nuclear Energy Agency. 11 countries and 19 companies answered the exercise proposed by this Benchmark. Heterogeneous calculations and homogeneous calculations were made. Various methods were used to produce the results: diffusion (finite differences, nodal...), transport (P ij , S n , Monte Carlo). This report presents an analysis and intercomparisons of all the results received

  11. Methods of bone marrow dose calculation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taboaco, R.C.

    1982-02-01

    Several methods of bone marrow dose calculation for photon irradiation were analised. After a critical analysis, the author proposes the adoption, by the Instituto de Radioprotecao e Dosimetria/CNEN, of Rosenstein's method for dose calculations in Radiodiagnostic examinations and Kramer's method in case of occupational irradiation. It was verified by Eckerman and Simpson that for monoenergetic gamma emitters uniformly distributed within the bone mineral of the skeleton the dose in the bone surface can be several times higher than dose in skeleton. In this way, is also proposed the Calculation of tissue-air ratios for bone surfaces in some irradiation geometries and photon energies to be included in the Rosenstein's method for organ dose calculation in Radiodiagnostic examinations. (Author) [pt

  12. Simplified dose calculation method for mantle technique

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scaff, L.A.M.

    1984-01-01

    A simplified dose calculation method for mantle technique is described. In the routine treatment of lymphom as using this technique, the daily doses at the midpoints at five anatomical regions are different because the thicknesses are not equal. (Author) [pt

  13. Numerical calculations in quantum field theories

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rebbi, C.

    1984-01-01

    Four lecture notes are included: (1) motivation for numerical calculations in Quantum Field Theory; (2) numerical simulation methods; (3) Monte Carlo studies of Quantum Chromo Dynamics; and (4) systems with fermions. 23 references

  14. Fluorescein isothiocyanate: Molecular characterization by theoretical calculations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Casanovas, Jordi [Departament de Quimica, Escola Politecnica Superior, Universitat de Lleida, c/Jaume II No 69, Lleida E-25001 (Spain); Jacquemin, Denis [Laboratoire de Chimie Theorique Appliquee, Facultes Universitaires Notre-Dame de la Paix, rue de Bruxelles, 61, B-5000 Namur (Belgium)], E-mail: denis.jacquemin@fundp.ac.be; Perpete, Eric A. [Laboratoire de Chimie Theorique Appliquee, Facultes Universitaires Notre-Dame de la Paix, rue de Bruxelles, 61, B-5000 Namur (Belgium); Aleman, Carlos [Departament d' Enginyeria Quimica, E. T. S. d' Enginyeria Industrial de Barcelona, Universitat Politecnica de Catalunya, Diagonal 647, Barcelona E-08028 (Spain)], E-mail: carlos.aleman@upc.edu

    2008-12-10

    Quantum mechanical calculations have been used to investigate the conformation, molecular geometry, basicity and spectroscopic properties of fluorescein isothiocyanate in both the gas-phase and aqueous solution. Specifically, calculations have been performed considering the neutral, monoanionic and dianionic forms of this important fluorescent compound. Results reveal that for the neutral form multiple conformational states are possible, all them with significant contributions, and the stability of the different conformers is similar in the gas-phase and aqueous solution. Calculation of the excitation energies revealed that spectroscopic properties are very sensitive to the relaxation effect in solution. A good agreement has been reached obtained between the experimental and theoretical values derived from time-dependent density functional theory methods for the neutral form, whereas for charged species the calculations fail to accurately reproduce the measured trends.

  15. Resonance integral calculations for high temperature reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blake, J.P.H.

    1960-02-01

    Methods of calculation of resonance integrals of finite dilution and temperature are given for both, homogeneous and heterogeneous geometries, together with results obtained from these methods as applied to the design of high temperature reactors. (author)

  16. molecular dynamics simulations and quantum chemical calculations

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ABSTRACT. The molecular dynamic (MD) simulation and quantum chemical calculations for the adsorption of [2-(2-Henicos-10- .... electronic properties of molecule clusters, surfaces and ... The local reactivity was analyzed by determining the.

  17. Nuclear structure calculations for astrophysical applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moeller, P.; Kratz, K.L.

    1992-01-01

    Here we present calculated results on such diverse properties as nuclear energy levels, ground-state masses and shapes, β-decay properties and fission-barrier heights. Our approach to these calculations is to use a unified theoretical framework within which the above properties can all be studied. The results are obtained in the macroscopic-microscopic approach in which a microscopic nuclear-structure single-particle model with extensions is combined with a macroscopic model, such as the liquid drop model. In this model the total potential energy of the nucleus may be calculated as a function of shape. The maxima and minima in this function correspond to such features as the ground state, fission saddle points and shape-isomeric states. Various transition rate matrix elements are determined from wave-functions calculated in the single-particle model with pairing and other relevant residual interactions taken into account

  18. Spreadsheet eases heat balance, payback calculations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Conner, K.P.

    1992-01-01

    This paper reports that a generalized Lotus type spreadsheet program has been developed to perform the heat balance and simple payback calculations for various turbine-generator (TG) inlet steam pressures. It can be used for potential plant expansions or new cogeneration installations. The program performs the basic heat balance calculations that are associated with turbine-generator, feedwater heating process steam requirements and desuperheating. The printout, shows the basic data and formulation used in the calculations. The turbine efficiency data used are applicable for automatic extraction turbine-generators in the 30-80 MW range. Simple payback calculations are for chemical recovery boilers and power boilers used in the pulp and paper industry. However, the program will also accommodate boilers common to other industries

  19. Calculation of a toroidal labyrinth shields

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sul'kin, A.G.

    1979-01-01

    Calculation of protective case with a toroidal labyrinth channel, being one of the main design elements of hose gamma-devices, is presented. The case provides relative isotropic distribution of radiation outside protection limits. The main geometric parameters of the channel are determined: r-radius of the channel hole, rho-bend radius of the channel axis, β-angle of the channel bend. General exposure dose rate of γ-radiation in the detection point at l distance (usually l=100 m during calculations), is also calculated. Differential current dose albedo values have been found for certain combinations of parameters of the labyrinth channel. It is considered for simplification of labyrinth channel calculations, that backward radiation scattering passes, without energy change and isotropically, due to which differential current albedo values of γ-radiation for any incidence angle may be determined from integral albedo current values by the empirie formula

  20. Calculation methods for determining dose equivalent

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Endres, G.W.R.; Tanner, J.E.; Scherpelz, R.I.; Hadlock, D.E.

    1987-11-01

    A series of calculations of neutron fluence as a function of energy in an anthropomorphic phantom was performed to develop a system for determining effective dose equivalent for external radiation sources. Critical organ dose equivalents are calculated and effective dose equivalents are determined using ICRP-26 [1] methods. Quality factors based on both present definitions and ICRP-40 definitions are used in the analysis. The results of these calculations are presented and discussed. The effective dose equivalent determined using ICRP-26 methods is significantly smaller than the dose equivalent determined by traditional methods. No existing personnel dosimeter or health physics instrument can determine effective dose equivalent. At the present time, the conversion of dosimeter response to dose equivalent is based on calculations for maximal or ''cap'' values using homogeneous spherical or cylindrical phantoms. The evaluated dose equivalent is, therefore, a poor approximation of the effective dose equivalent as defined by ICRP Publication 26. 3 refs., 2 figs., 1 tab