WorldWideScience

Sample records for calculating pulmonary-mode-lethality risk

  1. Calculated risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This book is a clear, practical, and balanced view of toxicology and risk management. The introduction argues the case for risks assessment and outlines the benefits and problems associated with chemical exposure. The first part of the book covers the basic science and the sources of human exposure to chemicals. Absorption, distribution, metabolism, and excretion are covered in some detail. The subsequent chapter gives a lively discussion of toxicity studies and then describes slow and fast poisons. The author gives the arguments for as well as against animal testing. There is much public bewilderment caused by reports of cancer-causing pesticides in apple juice and poisons emanating from nearby hazardous waste sites. The author believes that too much has been written in an attempt to expose governmental and corporate ignorance, negligence, and corruption. This book is less of a polemic, and more of a clear, unbiased clarification of the scientific basis for our concerns and uncertainties. It should serve to refocus the debate

  2. Risk calculation method for complex engineering system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Li-ping WANG

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a rapid and simple risk calculation method for large and complex engineering systems, the simulated maximum entropy method (SMEM, which is based on integration of the advantages of the Monte Carlo and maximum entropy methods, thus avoiding the shortcoming of the slow convergence rate of the Monte Carlo method in risk calculation. Application of SMEM in the calculation of reservoir flood discharge risk shows that this method can make full use of the known information under the same conditions and obtain the corresponding probability distribution and the risk value. It not only greatly improves the speed, compared with the Monte Carlo method, but also provides a new approach for the risk calculation in large and complex engineering systems.

  3. Periodontitis and Calculated Risk of Cardiovascular Mortality

    OpenAIRE

    Boutouyrie, P.; P. Bouchard; C. Mattout; Bourgeois, D.

    2008-01-01

    Epidemiological studies have reported associations between periodontitis and vascular disease in Europe. The aim of this multi-centric study was to evaluate the relationship between periodontitis and the calculated risk of cardiovascular death in the French adult population. The survey employed 2144 dentate adult subjects of the First National Periodontal and Systemic Examination Survey (NPASES I). This nationally representative sample was obtained by a quota method. The subjects had a compl...

  4. Recommendations for Insulin Dose Calculator Risk Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-01-01

    Several studies have shown the usefulness of an automated insulin dose bolus advisor (BA) in achieving improved glycemic control for insulin-using diabetes patients. Although regulatory agencies have approved several BAs over the past decades, these devices are not standardized in their approach to dosage calculation and include many features that may introduce risk to patients. Moreover, there is no single standard of care for diabetes worldwide and no guidance documents for BAs, specifically. Given the emerging and more stringent regulations on software used in medical devices, the approval process is becoming more difficult for manufacturers to navigate, with some manufacturers opting to remove BAs from their products altogether. A comprehensive literature search was performed, including publications discussing: diabetes BA use and benefit, infusion pump safety and regulation, regulatory submissions, novel BAs, and recommendations for regulation and risk management of BAs. Also included were country-specific and international guidance documents for medical device, infusion pump, medical software, and mobile medical application risk management and regulation. No definitive worldwide guidance exists regarding risk management requirements for BAs, specifically. However, local and international guidance documents for medical devices, infusion pumps, and medical device software offer guidance that can be applied to this technology. In addition, risk management exercises that are algorithm-specific can help prepare manufacturers for regulatory submissions. This article discusses key issues relevant to BA use and safety, and recommends risk management activities incorporating current research and guidance. PMID:24876550

  5. Calculating Value-at-Risk contributions in CreditRisk+

    OpenAIRE

    Hermann Haaf; Dirk Tasche

    2001-01-01

    Credit Suisse First Boston (CSFB) launched in 1997 the model CreditRisk+ which aims at calculating the loss distribution of a credit portfolio on the basis of a methodology from actuarial mathematics. Knowing the loss distribution, it is possible to determine quantile-based values-at-risk (VaRs) for the portfolio. An open question is how to attribute fair VaR contributions to the credits or loans forming the portfolio. One approach is to define the contributions as certain conditional expecta...

  6. CALCULATING ECONOMIC RISK AFTER HANFORD CLEANUP

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Scott, M.J.

    2003-02-27

    Since late 1997, researchers at the Hanford Site have been engaged in the Groundwater Protection Project (formerly, the Groundwater/Vadose Zone Project), developing a suite of integrated physical and environmental models and supporting data to trace the complex path of Hanford legacy contaminants through the environment for the next thousand years, and to estimate corresponding environmental, human health, economic, and cultural risks. The linked set of models and data is called the System Assessment Capability (SAC). The risk mechanism for economics consists of ''impact triggers'' (sequences of physical and human behavior changes in response to, or resulting from, human health or ecological risks), and processes by which particular trigger mechanisms induce impacts. Economic impacts stimulated by the trigger mechanisms may take a variety of forms, including changes in either costs or revenues for economic sectors associated with the affected resource or activity. An existing local economic impact model was adapted to calculate the resulting impacts on output, employment, and labor income in the local economy (the Tri-Cities Economic Risk Model or TCERM). The SAC researchers ran a test suite of 25 realization scenarios for future contamination of the Columbia River after site closure for a small subset of the radionuclides and hazardous chemicals known to be present in the environment at the Hanford Site. These scenarios of potential future river contamination were analyzed in TCERM. Although the TCERM model is sensitive to river contamination under a reasonable set of assumptions concerning reactions of the authorities and the public, the scenarios show low enough future contamination that the impacts on the local economy are small.

  7. Perceived and calculated health risks: do the impacts differ

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Payne, B.A.; Williams, R.G.

    1986-01-23

    In many cases of radioactive and hazardous waste management, some members of the general public perceive that human health risks associated with the wastes are higher than the calculated risks. Calculated risks are projections that have been derived from models, and it is these risks that are usually used as the basis for waste management. However, for various reasons, the calculated risks are often considered by the public as too low or inappropriate. The reasons that calculated risks are not perceived as accurate and the factors that affect these perceptions are explored in this paper. Also discussed are the impacts related to the perceived and calculated health risks: what they are, and if and how they differ. The kinds of potential impacts examined are health effects, land value changes, and social, transportation, and economic effects. The paper concludes with a discussion of the implications of incorporating these different risk perspectives in decisions on waste management.

  8. Perceived and calculated health risks: do the impacts differ

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In many cases of radioactive and hazardous waste management, some members of the general public perceive that human health risks associated with the wastes are higher than the calculated risks. Calculated risks are projections that have been derived from models, and it is these risks that are usually used as the basis for waste management. However, for various reasons, the calculated risks are often considered by the public as too low or inappropriate. The reasons that calculated risks are not perceived as accurate and the factors that affect these perceptions are explored in this paper. Also discussed are the impacts related to the perceived and calculated health risks: what they are, and if and how they differ. The kinds of potential impacts examined are health effects, land value changes, and social, transportation, and economic effects. The paper concludes with a discussion of the implications of incorporating these different risk perspectives in decisions on waste management

  9. The new pooled cohort equations risk calculator

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Preiss, David; Kristensen, Søren L

    2015-01-01

    In the National Cholesterol Education Program Adult Treatment Panel III guidelines published in 2001, estimation of cardiovascular risk was recommended based on the Framingham score for 10-year risk of myocardial infarction and the Canadian Cardiovascular Society currently recommends the Framingh...

  10. Calculation of Expected Shortfall for Measuring Risk and Its Applications

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    阎春宁; 余鹏; 黄养新

    2005-01-01

    Expected shortfall(ES) is a new method to measure market risk. In this paper, an example was presented to illustrate that the ES is coherent but value-at-risk(VaR) is not coherent. Three formulas for calculating the ES based on historical simulation method, normal method and GARCH method were derived. Further, a numerical experiment on optimizing portfolio using ES was provided.

  11. Compliance with biopsy recommendations of a prostate cancer risk calculator

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Vugt, Heidi A.; Roobol, Monique J.; Busstra, Martijn; Kil, Paul; Oomens, Eric H.; de Jong, Igle J.; Bangma, Chris H.; Steyerberg, Ewout W.; Korfage, Ida

    2012-01-01

    OBJECTIVES To assess both urologist and patient compliance with a 'no biopsy' or 'biopsy' recommendation of the European Randomized study of Screening for Prostate Cancer (ERSPC) Risk Calculator (RC), as well as their reasons for non-compliance. To assess determinants of patient compliance. PATIENTS

  12. Evaluating risk using bounding calculations and limited data; TOPICAL

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper describes a methodology for estimating the potential risk to workers and the public from igniting organic solvents in any of the 177 underground waste storage tanks at the Hanford Site in southeastern Washington state. The Hanford Site is one of the U.S. Department of Energy's former production facilities for nuclear materials. The tanks contain mixed radioactive wastes. Risk is measured by calculating toxicological and radiological accident consequences and frequencies and comparing the results to established regulatory guidelines. Available sample data is insufficient to adequately characterize the waste and solvent, so a model that maximizes releases from the tanks (bounding case) is used. Maximizing releases (and thus consequences) is a standard technique used in safety analysis to compensate for lack of information. The model predicts bounding values of fire duration, the time at which the fire extinguishes because of lack of oxygen, and a pressure history of a fire in a tank. The model output is used to calculate mass and volume release rates of material from the tanks. The mass and volume release rates permit calculation of radiological and toxicological consequences. The resulting consequence calculations demonstrate that risk from an organic solvent fire in the tanks is within regulatory guidelines

  13. Evaluating risk using bounding calculations and limited data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    COWLEY, W.L.

    1999-05-27

    This paper describes a methodology for estimating the potential risk to workers and the public from igniting organic solvents in any of the 177 underground waste storage tanks at the Hanford Site in southeastern Washington state. The Hanford Site is one of the U.S. Department of Energy's former production facilities for nuclear materials. The tanks contain mixed radioactive wastes. Risk is measured by calculating toxicological and radiological accident consequences and frequencies and comparing the results to established regulatory guidelines. Available sample data is insufficient to adequately characterize the waste and solvent, so a model that maximizes releases from the tanks (bounding case) is used. Maximizing releases (and thus consequences) is a standard technique used in safety analysis to compensate for lack of information. The model predicts bounding values of fire duration, the time at which the fire extinguishes because of lack of oxygen, and a pressure history of a fire in a tank. The model output is used to calculate mass and volume release rates of material from the tanks. The mass and volume release rates permit calculation of radiological and toxicological consequences. The resulting consequence calculations demonstrate that risk from an organic solvent fire in the tanks is within regulatory guidelines.

  14. Integrating information from novel risk factors with calculated risks : the critical impact of risk factor prevalence

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kooter, A.J.; Kostende, P.J.; Groenewold, J.; Thijs, A.; Sattar, N.; Smulders, Y.M.

    2011-01-01

    Case vignette: a 60-year-old man visits his physician for assessment of his 10-year cardiovascular risk. On the basis of his systolic blood pressure, lipid profile, smoking status, and the fact that he is nondiabetic, the Framingham risk score estimates his risk to be 8%. The physician wonders if he

  15. Preliminar calculation of tornado risk in the site of Ipero

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pacheco, Rafael R.; Costa, Saulo Barros, E-mail: rafael.rade@ctmsp.mar.mil.br, E-mail: saulo.costa@ctmsp.mar.mil.br [Centro Tecnologico da Marinha em Sao Paulo (CTMSP), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil); Andrade, Delvonei A., E-mail: delvonei@ipen.br [Instituto de Pesquisas Energeticas e Nucleares (IPEN/CNEN-SP), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil)

    2015-07-01

    General Design Criterion (GDC) 2 to 10 CFR 50 requires that 'structures, systems, and components that are important to safety shall be designed to withstand the effects of natural phenomena, such as tornadoes, without loss of capability to perform their safety functions'. According to Regulatory Guide 1.76, the design-basis intensity of a tornado for a nuclear power plant shall not exceed the intensity of the strongest tornado that occurs with the frequency of 10-7/years. Reinforcing the plant to achieve this goal represents a high increase in the costs of the project, and correspondently increase in the time required to have it commissioned. This way, the right definition of tornado risk in a site would represent savings in money for the project and in time for the licensing of a nuclear power plants. This works aims to establish a preliminary calculation of the tornado risk in the site of Ipero, where will work LABGENE from Brazilian Navy, and RMB from CNEN. (author)

  16. Calculating Least Risk Paths in 3d Indoor Space

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vanclooster, A.; De Maeyer, Ph.; Fack, V.; Van de Weghe, N.

    2013-08-01

    Over the last couple of years, research on indoor environments has gained a fresh impetus; more specifically applications that support navigation and wayfinding have become one of the booming industries. Indoor navigation research currently covers the technological aspect of indoor positioning and the modelling of indoor space. The algorithmic development to support navigation has so far been left mostly untouched, as most applications mainly rely on adapting Dijkstra's shortest path algorithm to an indoor network. However, alternative algorithms for outdoor navigation have been proposed adding a more cognitive notion to the calculated paths and as such adhering to the natural wayfinding behaviour (e.g. simplest paths, least risk paths). These algorithms are currently restricted to outdoor applications. The need for indoor cognitive algorithms is highlighted by a more challenged navigation and orientation due to the specific indoor structure (e.g. fragmentation, less visibility, confined areas…). As such, the clarity and easiness of route instructions is of paramount importance when distributing indoor routes. A shortest or fastest path indoors not necessarily aligns with the cognitive mapping of the building. Therefore, the aim of this research is to extend those richer cognitive algorithms to three-dimensional indoor environments. More specifically for this paper, we will focus on the application of the least risk path algorithm of Grum (2005) to an indoor space. The algorithm as proposed by Grum (2005) is duplicated and tested in a complex multi-storey building. The results of several least risk path calculations are compared to the shortest paths in indoor environments in terms of total length, improvement in route description complexity and number of turns. Several scenarios are tested in this comparison: paths covering a single floor, paths crossing several building wings and/or floors. Adjustments to the algorithm are proposed to be more aligned to the

  17. Prospective validation of a risk calculator which calculates the probability of a positive prostate biopsy in a contemporary clinical cohort

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Vugt, Heidi A.; Kranse, Ries; Steyerberg, Ewout W.; van der Poel, Henk G.; Busstra, Martijn; Kil, Paul; Oomens, Eric H.; de Jong, Igle J.; Bangma, Chris H.; Roobol, Monique J.

    2012-01-01

    Background: Prediction models need validation to assess their value outside the development setting. Objective: To assess the external validity of the European Randomised study of Screening for Prostate Cancer (ERSPC) Risk Calculator (RC) in a contemporary clinical cohort. Methods: The RC calculates

  18. Hair 2010 Documentation: Calculating risk indicators related to agricultural use of pesticides within the European Union

    OpenAIRE

    Kruijne, R.; Deneer, J.W.; Lahr, J.; Vlaming, J.

    2011-01-01

    The HAIR instrument calculates risk indicators related to the agricultural use of pesticides in EU Member States. HAIR combines databases and models for calculating potential environmental environmental effects expressed by the exposure toxicity ratio.

  19. Risk calculations in the manufacturing technology selection process

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Farooq, S.; O'Brien, C.

    2010-01-01

    and supply chain environment. The evaluation of a manufacturing technology considering supply chain opportunities and threats provides a broader perspective to the technology evaluation process. The inclusion of supply chain dimension in technology selection process facilitates an organisation to select...... in the shape of opportunities and threats in different decision-making environments. Practical implications - The research quantifies the risk associated with different available manufacturing technology alternatives. This quantification of risk crystallises the process of technology selection decision making...

  20. [Risk factor calculator for medical underwriting of life insurers based on the PROCAM study].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geritse, A; Müller, G; Trompetter, T; Schulte, H; Assmann, G

    2008-06-01

    For its electronic manual GEM, used to perform medical risk assessment in life insurance, SCOR Global Life Germany has developed an innovative and evidence-based calculator of the mortality risk depending on cardiovascular risk factors. The calculator contains several new findings regarding medical underwriting, which were gained from the analysis of the PROCAM (Prospective Cardiovascular Münster) study. For instance, in the overall consideration of all risk factors of a medically examined applicant, BMI is not an independent risk factor. Further, given sufficient information, the total extra mortality of a person no longer results from adding up the ratings for the single risk factors. In fact, this new approach of risk assessment considers the interdependencies between the different risk factors. The new calculator is expected to improve risk selection and standard acceptances will probably increase.

  1. HOW TO CALCULATE INFORMATION VALUE FOR EFFECTIVE SECURITY RISK ASSESSMENT

    OpenAIRE

    Mario Sajko; Kornelije Rabuzin; Miroslav Bača

    2006-01-01

    The actual problem of information security (infosec) risk assessment is determining the value of information property or asset. This is particularly manifested through the use of quantitative methodology in which it is necessary to state the information value in quantitative sizes. The aim of this paper is to describe the evaluation possibilities of business information values, and the criteria needed for determining importance of information. For this purpose, the dimensions of information v...

  2. Basel II Approaches for the Calculation of the Regulatory Capital for Operational Risk

    OpenAIRE

    Ivana Valová

    2011-01-01

    The final version of the New Capital Accord, which includes operational risk, was released by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision in June 2004. The article “Basel II approaches for the calculation of the regulatory capital for operational risk” is devoted to the issue of operational risk of credit financial institutions. The paper talks about methods of operational risk calculation, advantages and disadvantages of particular methods.

  3. Method to calculate additional ramps explicity (CARE) in quantitative risk analysis for road tunnels

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nelisse, R.M.L.; Vrouwenvelder, A.C.W.M.

    2014-01-01

    Article 13 of the EU Directive on minimum safety requirements for tunnels in the Trans-European Road Network states that a risk analysis, where necessary, shall be carried out. In the Netherlands, the risk of decease for road users in a tunnel (internal risk) is calculated with a model for quantitat

  4. HOW TO CALCULATE INFORMATION VALUE FOR EFFECTIVE SECURITY RISK ASSESSMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mario Sajko

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available The actual problem of information security (infosec risk assessment is determining the value of information property or asset. This is particularly manifested through the use of quantitative methodology in which it is necessary to state the information value in quantitative sizes. The aim of this paper is to describe the evaluation possibilities of business information values, and the criteria needed for determining importance of information. For this purpose, the dimensions of information values will be determined and the ways used to present the importance of information contents will be studied. There are two basic approaches that can be used in evaluation: qualitative and quantitative. Often they are combined to determine forms of information content. The proposed criterion is the three-dimension model, which combines the existing experiences (i.e. possible solutions for information value assessment with our own criteria. An attempt for structuring information value in a business environment will be made as well.

  5. How Suitable Are Registry Data for Recurrence Risk Calculations?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ellesøe, Sabrina Gade; Jensen, Anders Boeck; Ängquist, Lars Henrik;

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Congenital heart disease (CHD) occurs in approximately 1% of all live births, and 3% to 8% of these have until now been considered familial cases, defined as the occurrence of two or more affected individuals in a family. The validity of CHD diagnoses in Danish administrative registry...... identifier in the Danish registries, thus enabling connection of information from several registries. Utilizing the CPR number, we identified Danish patients with familial CHD and reviewed each patient's file. We compared diagnoses from the registries with those manually assigned, which enabled calculation...... of nine of all cases with CHD are familial, and we also found that 36% of individuals with CHD in administrative medical registries are misclassified, which distort the RRR in simulated scenarios....

  6. Illstrative probabilistic biosphere model for Yucca Mountain individual risk calculations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The proposed EPA Standards for the disposal of spent fuel, high-level and transuranic radioactive waste prescribe future biosphere--one in which no sustained human activity occurs inside the controlled zone, yet sustained use of groundwater occurs just outside the controlled zone boundary. Performance assessments have generally assumed a person at this location extracts all his water needs directly from the projected contaminated plume for all of his life. Dose to this maximally-exposed individual is too conservative a measure of performance for a nuclear waste repository and does not reflect the isolation characteristics of a site. A better measure is individual risk in which uncertainties in biosphere characteristics for the longer periods of performance, for a site like Yucca Mountain only those characteristics associated with well water scenarios need be prescribed. Such a prescription of the biosphere is appropriate because the goal of the regulations is to provide indicators of future performance so the regulators can make a responsible decision regarding reasonable assurance of public health and safety

  7. The Calculation of Collision Risk on Air-Routes Based on Variable Nominal Separation

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    QU Yu-ling; HAN Song-chen

    2010-01-01

    In this paper, a new method to calculate collision risk of air-routes, based on variable nominal separation, is proposed. The collision risk model of air-routes, based on the time variable and initial time interval variable, is given. Because the distance and the collision probability vary with time when the nominal relative speed between aircraft is not zero for a fixed initial time interval, the distance, the variable nominal separation, and the collision probability at any time can be expressed as functions of time and initial time interval. By the probabilistic theory, a model for calculating collision risk is acquired based on initial time interval distribution, flow rates, and the proportion of aircraft type. From the results of calculations, the collision risk can be characterized by the model when the nominal separation changes with time. As well the roles of parameters can be shown more readily.

  8. Mobile application-based Seoul National University Prostate Cancer Risk Calculator: development, validation, and comparative analysis with two Western risk calculators in Korean men.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chang Wook Jeong

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVES: We developed a mobile application-based Seoul National University Prostate Cancer Risk Calculator (SNUPC-RC that predicts the probability of prostate cancer (PC at the initial prostate biopsy in a Korean cohort. Additionally, the application was validated and subjected to head-to-head comparisons with internet-based Western risk calculators in a validation cohort. Here, we describe its development and validation. PATIENTS AND METHODS: As a retrospective study, consecutive men who underwent initial prostate biopsy with more than 12 cores at a tertiary center were included. In the development stage, 3,482 cases from May 2003 through November 2010 were analyzed. Clinical variables were evaluated, and the final prediction model was developed using the logistic regression model. In the validation stage, 1,112 cases from December 2010 through June 2012 were used. SNUPC-RC was compared with the European Randomized Study of Screening for PC Risk Calculator (ERSPC-RC and the Prostate Cancer Prevention Trial Risk Calculator (PCPT-RC. The predictive accuracy was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC. The clinical value was evaluated using decision curve analysis. RESULTS: PC was diagnosed in 1,240 (35.6% and 417 (37.5% men in the development and validation cohorts, respectively. Age, prostate-specific antigen level, prostate size, and abnormality on digital rectal examination or transrectal ultrasonography were significant factors of PC and were included in the final model. The predictive accuracy in the development cohort was 0.786. In the validation cohort, AUC was significantly higher for the SNUPC-RC (0.811 than for ERSPC-RC (0.768, p<0.001 and PCPT-RC (0.704, p<0.001. Decision curve analysis also showed higher net benefits with SNUPC-RC than with the other calculators. CONCLUSIONS: SNUPC-RC has a higher predictive accuracy and clinical benefit than Western risk calculators. Furthermore, it is easy

  9. Evaluation of Major Online Diabetes Risk Calculators and Computerized Predictive Models.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gregor Stiglic

    Full Text Available Classical paper-and-pencil based risk assessment questionnaires are often accompanied by the online versions of the questionnaire to reach a wider population. This study focuses on the loss, especially in risk estimation performance, that can be inflicted by direct transformation from the paper to online versions of risk estimation calculators by ignoring the possibilities of more complex and accurate calculations that can be performed using the online calculators. We empirically compare the risk estimation performance between four major diabetes risk calculators and two, more advanced, predictive models. National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES data from 1999-2012 was used to evaluate the performance of detecting diabetes and pre-diabetes. American Diabetes Association risk test achieved the best predictive performance in category of classical paper-and-pencil based tests with an Area Under the ROC Curve (AUC of 0.699 for undiagnosed diabetes (0.662 for pre-diabetes and 47% (47% for pre-diabetes persons selected for screening. Our results demonstrate a significant difference in performance with additional benefits for a lower number of persons selected for screening when statistical methods are used. The best AUC overall was obtained in diabetes risk prediction using logistic regression with AUC of 0.775 (0.734 and an average 34% (48% persons selected for screening. However, generalized boosted regression models might be a better option from the economical point of view as the number of selected persons for screening of 30% (47% lies significantly lower for diabetes risk assessment in comparison to logistic regression (p < 0.001, with a significantly higher AUC (p < 0.001 of 0.774 (0.740 for the pre-diabetes group. Our results demonstrate a serious lack of predictive performance in four major online diabetes risk calculators. Therefore, one should take great care and consider optimizing the online versions of questionnaires that

  10. The risk of major nuclear accident: calculation and perception of probabilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Whereas before the Fukushima accident, already eight major accidents occurred in nuclear power plants, a number which is higher than that expected by experts and rather close to that corresponding of people perception of risk, the author discusses how to understand these differences and reconcile observations, objective probability of accidents and subjective assessment of risks, why experts have been over-optimistic, whether public opinion is irrational regarding nuclear risk, and how to measure risk and its perception. Thus, he addresses and discusses the following issues: risk calculation (cost, calculated frequency of major accident, bias between the number of observed accidents and model predictions), perceived probabilities and aversion for disasters (perception biases of probability, perception biases unfavourable to nuclear), the Bayes contribution and its application (Bayes-Laplace law, statistics, choice of an a priori probability, prediction of the next event, probability of a core fusion tomorrow)

  11. Comparison of estimates and calculations of risk of coronary heart disease by doctors and nurses using different calculation tools in general practice: cross sectional study.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    McManus, R.J.; Mant, J.; Meulendijks, C.F.M.; Salter, R.A.; Pattison, H.M.; Roalfe, A.K.; Hobbs, F.D.

    2002-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To assess the effect of using different risk calculation tools on how general practitioners and practice nurses evaluate the risk of coronary heart disease with clinical data routinely available in patients' records. DESIGN: Subjective estimates of the risk of coronary heart disease and r

  12. Easy calculations of lod scores and genetic risks on small computers.

    OpenAIRE

    Lathrop, G M; Lalouel, J M

    1984-01-01

    A computer program that calculates lod scores and genetic risks for a wide variety of both qualitative and quantitative genetic traits is discussed. An illustration is given of the joint use of a genetic marker, affection status, and quantitative information in counseling situations regarding Duchenne muscular dystrophy.

  13. [Models for calculating risks as a tool in screening for cardiovascular diseases].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bryndorf, T E; Petersen, H H; Baastrup, A; Bremmelgaard, A; Videbaek, J

    1990-04-16

    In connection with screening for risk factors for ischaemic heart disease in Bispebjerg Hospital, we have assessed three different models for calculation of the risk, employed on our own material. A total of 462 persons participated in the screening and 275 of these were under the age of 65 years. Out of these 275, 92 had plasma cholesterol values over or equal to 7.0 mmol/l and or smoked over 20 gram tobacco daily. On comparison between three models for calculation of the risk: one American, one British and one Swedish, moderate agreement was observed: the correlation coefficients varied between 0.75 and 0.89. The reason for this may be that the models for calculation of the risk are constructed on the basis of statistics already described from epidemiological investigations in which coincidence is demonstrated between selected observable factors and ischaemic heart disease. It is thus possible that the factors which we measure and possibly attempt to influence are not pathogenetic. We consider, therefore, that risk scoring should be employed with caution. As causal connection between ischaemic heart disease and cholesterol and smoking, respectively, have been demonstrated with reasonable certainty, we consider that it is reasonable to screen and intervene for these factors alone. PMID:2330641

  14. MATHEMATICAL MODEL FOR CALCULATION OF INFORMATION RISKS FOR INFORMATION AND LOGISTICS SYSTEM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. G. Korobeynikov

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Subject of research. The paper deals with mathematical model for assessment calculation of information risks arising during transporting and distribution of material resources in the conditions of uncertainty. Meanwhile information risks imply the danger of origin of losses or damage as a result of application of information technologies by the company. Method. The solution is based on ideology of the transport task solution in stochastic statement with mobilization of mathematical modeling theory methods, the theory of graphs, probability theory, Markov chains. Creation of mathematical model is performed through the several stages. At the initial stage, capacity on different sites depending on time is calculated, on the basis of information received from information and logistic system, the weight matrix is formed and the digraph is under construction. Then there is a search of the minimum route which covers all specified vertexes by means of Dejkstra algorithm. At the second stage, systems of differential Kolmogorov equations are formed using information about the calculated route. The received decisions show probabilities of resources location in concrete vertex depending on time. At the third stage, general probability of the whole route passing depending on time is calculated on the basis of multiplication theorem of probabilities. Information risk, as time function, is defined by multiplication of the greatest possible damage by the general probability of the whole route passing. In this case information risk is measured in units of damage which corresponds to that monetary unit which the information and logistic system operates with. Main results. Operability of the presented mathematical model is shown on a concrete example of transportation of material resources where places of shipment and delivery, routes and their capacity, the greatest possible damage and admissible risk are specified. The calculations presented on a diagram showed

  15. RESRAD for Radiological Risk Assessment. Comparison with EPA CERCLA Tools - PRG and DCC Calculators

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yu, C. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Cheng, J. -J. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Kamboj, S. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States)

    2015-07-01

    The purpose of this report is two-fold. First, the risk assessment methodology for both RESRAD and the EPA’s tools is reviewed. This includes a review of the EPA’s justification for 2 using a dose-to-risk conversion factor to reduce the dose-based protective ARAR from 15 to 12 mrem/yr. Second, the models and parameters used in RESRAD and the EPA PRG and DCC Calculators are compared in detail, and the results are summarized and discussed. Although there are suites of software tools in the RESRAD family of codes and the EPA Calculators, the scope of this report is limited to the RESRAD (onsite) code for soil contamination and the EPA’s PRG and DCC Calculators also for soil contamination.

  16. Calculating credit risk capital charges with the one-factor model

    OpenAIRE

    Susanne Emmer; Dirk Tasche

    2003-01-01

    Even in the simple one-factor credit portfolio model that underlies the Basel II regulatory capital rules coming into force in 2007, the exact contributions to credit value-at-risk can only be calculated with Monte-Carlo simulation or with approximation algorithms that often involve numerical integration. As this may require a lot of computational time, there is a need for approximate analytical formulae. In this note, we develop formulae according to two different approaches: the granularity...

  17. DSTiPE Algorithm for Fuzzy Spatio-Temporal Risk Calculation in Wireless Environments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kurt Derr; Milos Manic

    2008-09-01

    Time and location data play a very significant role in a variety of factory automation scenarios, such as automated vehicles and robots, their navigation, tracking, and monitoring, to services of optimization and security. In addition, pervasive wireless capabilities combined with time and location information are enabling new applications in areas such as transportation systems, health care, elder care, military, emergency response, critical infrastructure, and law enforcement. A person/object in proximity to certain areas for specific durations of time may pose a risk hazard either to themselves, others, or the environment. This paper presents a novel fuzzy based spatio-temporal risk calculation DSTiPE method that an object with wireless communications presents to the environment. The presented Matlab based application for fuzzy spatio-temporal risk cluster extraction is verified on a diagonal vehicle movement example.

  18. STRRAP system-A software for hazardous materials risk assessment and safe distances calculation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Godoy, S.M. [GIAIQ-Grupo de Investigacion en Informatica Aplicada a la Ingenieria Quimica, Universidad Tecnologica Nacional-Facultad Regional Rosario, Zeballos 1341-S2000 BQA Rosario, Santa Fe (Argentina); Santa Cruz, A.S.M. [GIAIQ-Grupo de Investigacion en Informatica Aplicada a la Ingenieria Quimica, Universidad Tecnologica Nacional-Facultad Regional Rosario, Zeballos 1341-S2000 BQA Rosario, Santa Fe (Argentina); Scenna, N.J. [GIAIQ-Grupo de Investigacion en Informatica Aplicada a la Ingenieria Quimica, Universidad Tecnologica Nacional-Facultad Regional Rosario, Zeballos 1341-S2000 BQA Rosario, Santa Fe (Argentina) and INGAR-Instituto de Desarrollo y Diseno (Fundacion ARCIEN-CONICET), Avellaneda 3657-S3002 GJC Santa Fe (Argentina)]. E-mail: nscenna@ceride.gov.ar

    2007-07-15

    This work presents a powerful computational tool (Stochastic Toxic Release Risk Assessment Package, STRRAP) useful in risk assessment and emergency planning (safe distance calculation), which allows to handle the stochastic uncertainty of atmospheric parameters, critical for risk calculation when diffusion of hazardous gases or particulate matter occur as a consequence of an emission or accidental release. In fact, the random behaviour of wind intensity, wind direction, atmospheric stability and temperature, given a time horizon, (a season or a complete year), is taken into account considering also the day or night condition. STRRAP can be used for releases or emissions from static sources (for example a stack or a fixed tank in a facility) or from transportation accidents (road, rail, maritime and pipeline transport) involving different scenarios. After a stochastic simulation based on well-known diffusion models (dense and light gases, particulate matter) is carried out, the downwind pollutant concentrations are obtained, in order to compute safe distances and/or individual and societal risks. Some study cases are analyzed to show STRRAP capabilities.

  19. Calculating background levels for ecological risk parameters in toxic harbor sediment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leadon, C.J.; McDonnell, T.R.; Lear, J.; Barclift, D.

    2007-01-01

    Establishing background levels for biological parameters is necessary in assessing the ecological risks from harbor sediment contaminated with toxic chemicals. For chemicals in sediment, the term contaminated is defined as having concentrations above background and significant human health or ecological risk levels. For biological parameters, a site could be considered contaminated if levels of the parameter are either more or less than the background level, depending on the specific parameter. Biological parameters can include tissue chemical concentrations in ecological receptors, bioassay responses, bioaccumulation levels, and benthic community metrics. Chemical parameters can include sediment concentrations of a variety of potentially toxic chemicals. Indirectly, contaminated harbor sediment can impact shellfish, fish, birds, and marine mammals, and human populations. This paper summarizes the methods used to define background levels for chemical and biological parameters from a survey of ecological risk investigations of marine harbor sediment at California Navy bases. Background levels for regional biological indices used to quantify ecological risks for benthic communities are also described. Generally, background stations are positioned in relatively clean areas exhibiting the same physical and general chemical characteristics as nearby areas with contaminated harbor sediment. The number of background stations and the number of sample replicates per background station depend on the statistical design of the sediment ecological risk investigation, developed through the data quality objective (DQO) process. Biological data from the background stations can be compared to data from a contaminated site by using minimum or maximum background levels or comparative statistics. In Navy ecological risk assessments (ERA's), calculated background levels and appropriate ecological risk screening criteria are used to identify sampling stations and sites with contaminated

  20. Posttest risk calculation following positive noninvasive prenatal screening using cell-free DNA in maternal plasma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benn, Peter

    2016-06-01

    Noninvasive prenatal screening (NIPS) for fetal chromosome defects has high sensitivity and specificity but is not fully diagnostic. In response to a desire to provide more information to individual women with positive NIPS results, 2 online calculators have been developed to calculate posttest risk (PTR). Use of these calculators is critically reviewed. There is a mathematically dictated requirement for a precise estimate for the specificity to provide an accurate PTR. This is illustrated by showing that a 0.1% decrease in the value for specificities for trisomies 21, 18, and 13 can reduce the PTR from 79-64% for trisomy 21, 39-27% for trisomy 18, and 21-13% for trisomy 13, respectively. Use of the calculators assumes that sensitivity and specificity are constant for all women receiving the test but there is evidence that discordancy between screening results and true fetal karyotype is more common for older women. Use of an appropriate value for the prior risk is also important and for rare disorders there is considerable uncertainty regarding prevalence. For example, commonly used rates for trisomy 13, monosomy-X, triploidy, and 22q11.2 deletion syndrome can vary by >4-fold and this can translate into large differences in PTR. When screening for rare disorders, it may not be possible to provide a reliable PTR if there is uncertainty over the false-positive rate and/or prevalence. These limitations, per se, do not negate the value of screening for rare conditions. However, counselors need to carefully weigh the validity of PTR before presenting them to patients. Additional epidemiologic and NIPS outcome data are needed. PMID:26772793

  1. Comparison of Value at Risk Calculation Models in Terms of Banks’ Capital Adequacy Ratio

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmet Bostancı

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Banks using advanced VaR models are expected to hold in a lower amount subject to market risk (ASMR than banks using simple VaR models because of measuring their risk relatively more accurately. The purpose of this study is to test the hypothesis that advanced VaR models which measures risks better are resulting a lower ASMR. In this study historical volatility, historical simulation, EWMA, GARCH (1,1, GARCH (1,1-Bootstrap and GARCH (1,1-GED models were used for VaR calculations. By backtesting the VaR measures the model security factor h has been identified and so the ASMR has been simulated. After the results have been discussed for the real data sets the same process was repeated with randomly generated six different data sets to test the consistence of the results. According to the findings, the hypothesis that advanced VaR models like GARCH (1,1-Bootstrap and GARCH (1,1-GED provides a lower ASMR was rejected.

  2. The ICRP opinion of the calculation of doses and risks associated with exposures to tritium

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    As the management of exposures to tritium, just like for other radionuclides, relies on the effective dose calculation, it also requires the application of coefficients to take the variety of radiations and the sensitivity of the different irradiated tissues into account. The authors discuss the determination and the use of the weighting factor (Wr) which reflects the relative biological effectiveness (RBE) of different types of radiation. They outline that some researchers asked for a review of this factor, and that the RBE is related to several parameters. All this and other issues entail uncertainties. The authors then give the opinion of the ICRP on this issue and notably for the assessment of the individual risk of cancer after exposure to tritium

  3. The risk of a major nuclear accident: calculation and perception of probabilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The accident at Fukushima Daiichi, Japan, occurred on 11 March 2011. This nuclear disaster, the third on such a scale, left a lasting mark in the minds of hundreds of millions of people. Much as Three Mile Island or Chernobyl, yet another place will be permanently associated with a nuclear power plant which went out of control. Fukushima Daiichi revived the issue of the hazards of civil nuclear power, stirring up all the associated passion and emotion. The whole of this paper is devoted to the risk of a major nuclear accident. By this we mean a failure initiating core meltdown, a situation in which the fuel rods melt and mix with the metal in their cladding. Such accidents are classified as at least level 5 on the International Nuclear Event Scale. The Three Mile Island accident, which occurred in 1979 in the United States, reached this level of severity. The explosion of reactor 4 at the Chernobyl plant in Ukraine in 1986 and the recent accident in Japan were classified as class 7, the highest grade on this logarithmic scale. The main difference between the top two levels and level 5 relates to a significant or major release of radioactive material to the environment. In the event of a level-5 accident, damage is restricted to the inside of the plant, whereas, in the case of level-7 accidents, huge areas of land, above or below the surface, and/or sea may be contaminated. Before the meltdown of reactors 1, 2 and 3 at Fukushima Daiichi, eight major accidents affecting nuclear power plants had occurred worldwide. This is a high figure compared with the one calculated by the experts. Observations in the field do not appear to fit the results of the probabilistic models of nuclear accidents produced since the 1970's. Oddly enough the number of major accidents is closer to the risk as perceived by the general public. In general we tend to overestimate any risk relating to rare, fearsome accidents. What are we to make of this divergence? How are we to reconcile

  4. Cognitive Predictors of Calculations and Number Line Estimation with Whole Numbers and Fractions among At-Risk Students

    OpenAIRE

    Namkung, Jessica M.; Fuchs, Lynn S.

    2015-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to examine the cognitive predictors of calculations and number line estimation with whole numbers and fractions. At-risk 4th-grade students (N = 139) were assessed on 7 domain-general abilities (i.e., working memory, processing speed, concept formation, language, attentive behavior, and nonverbal reasoning) and incoming calculation skill at the start of 4th grade. Then, they were assessed on whole-number and fraction calculation and number line estimation measure...

  5. From Risk Models to Loan Contracts: Austerity as the Continuation of Calculation by Other Means

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pierre Pénet

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available This article analyses how financial actors sought to minimise financial uncertainties during the European sovereign debt crisis by employing simulations as legal instruments of market regulation. We first contrast two roles that simulations can play in sovereign debt markets: ‘simulation-hypotheses’, which work as bundles of constantly updated hypotheses with the goal of better predicting financial risks; and ‘simulation-fictions’, which provide fixed narratives about the present with the purpose of postponing the revision of market risks. Using ratings reports published by Moody’s on Greece and European Central Bank (ECB regulations, we show that Moody’s stuck to a simulationfiction and displayed rating inertia on Greece’s trustworthiness to prevent the destabilising effects that further downgrades would have on Greek borrowing costs. We also show that the multi-notch downgrade issued by Moody’s in June 2010 followed the ECB’s decision to remove ratings from its collateral eligibility requirements. Then, as regulators moved from ‘regulation through model’ to ‘regulation through contract’, ratings stopped functioning as simulation-fictions. Indeed, the conditions of the Greek bailout implemented in May 2010 replaced the CRAs’ models as the main simulation-fiction, which market actors employed to postpone the prospect of a Greek default. We conclude by presenting austerity measures as instruments of calculative governance rather than ideological compacts

  6. Decision-making in an era of cancer prevention via aspirin: New Zealand needs updated guidelines and risk calculators.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Nick; Selak, Vanessa; Blakely, Tony; Leung, William; Clarke, Philip; Jackson, Rod

    2016-03-11

    Based on new systematic reviews of the evidence, the US Preventive Services Task Force has drafted updated guidelines on the use of low-dose aspirin for the primary prevention of both cardiovascular disease (CVD) and cancer. The Task Force generally recommends consideration of aspirin in adults aged 50-69 years with 10-year CVD risk of at least 10%, in who absolute health gain (reduction of CVD and cancer) is estimated to exceed absolute health loss (increase in bleeds). With the ongoing decline in CVD, current risk calculators for New Zealand are probably outdated, so it is difficult to be precise about what proportion of the population is in this risk category (roughly equivalent to 5-year CVD risk ≥5%). Nevertheless, we suspect that most smokers aged 50-69 years, and some non-smokers, would probably meet the new threshold for taking low-dose aspirin. The country therefore needs updated guidelines and risk calculators that are ideally informed by estimates of absolute net health gain (in quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) per person) and cost-effectiveness. Other improvements to risk calculators include: epidemiological rigour (eg, by addressing competing mortality); providing enhanced graphical display of risk to enhance risk communication; and possibly capturing the issues of medication disutility and comparison with lifestyle changes. PMID:27005878

  7. The predictive value of risk of malignancy index calculation in adnexal masses

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sinem Ertaş

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Objective: Ovarian cancers, the relatively high frequency,poor prognosis and late diagnosis are considerable clinicalissues and additional diagnostic methods are needed.The aim of this study was to evaluate the predictive valueof RMI as a diagnostic marker in ovarian cancers.Methods: Totally 80 patients with adnexal masses whowere operated in Haydarpaşa Numune Training and ResearchHospital Gynecology and Obstetrics Departmentbetween January 2012-June 2012, included in the study.This was a retrospective observational study. All patient’documents were reevaluated and calculated for RMI. Thecalculated results were compared with histopathologicfindings.Results: The 30% (n=24 of women were in postmenopousalperiod. The major complains of patients duringattendance were pelvic pain (65% and 27.5% of thepatients had no complaints and adnexal masses weredetected during routine gynecological examination The86.3% (n=69 of women had benign ovarian neoplasms,11.3% (n=9 had malignant tumors and 2.5% (n=2 hadborderline ovarian tumors. Most of the women with highRMI levels were in postmenopousal status (71.5%. Thesensitivity and specificity of RMI were 81.8% and 92.6%respectively. The sensitivity and specificity of CA-125 levelswere 90.9% and 36.4% respectively.Conclusion: Using RMI in diagnosis of malign ovariantumors is easily appliable method with high sensitivityand specificity without financial burden. J Clin Exp Invest2013; 4 (3: 322-325Key words: Ovarian cancer, adnexal masses, risk of malignancyindex

  8. Practical Calculation of Expected and Unexpected Losses in Operational Risk by Simulation Methods

    OpenAIRE

    Enrique, Navarrete

    2006-01-01

    This paper explores the difficulties involved in quantitative measurement of operational risk and proposes simulation methods as a practical solution to obtain the distribution of total losses. It also introduces an example of the estimation of expected and unexpected losses, as well as Value-at-Risk (VaR), arising from operational risk.

  9. Association between perceived lifetime risk of cardiovascular disease and calculated risk in a male population in Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    de Lima Jr MM

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Mário Maciel de Lima Jr,1,2 Glaciane Rocha da Silva,3 Sebastião Salazar Jensem Filho,2 Fabiana Granja3 1Department of Urology, Coronel Mota Hospital, Roraima, 2Cathedral College, 3Biodiversity Research Center, Federal University of Roraima (CBio/UFRR, Roraima, Brazil Aim: Cardiovascular disease is the major cause of morbidity and mortality across the world. Despite health campaigns to improve awareness of cardiovascular risk factors, there has been little improvement in cardiovascular mortality. In this study, we sought to examine the association between cardiovascular risk factors and people’s perception on cardiovascular risk. Methods: This was an epidemiological, cross-sectional, descriptive, prospective study of Masonic men aged >40 years in Boa Vista, Brazil. Participants completed a health survey, which included three questions about perception of their stress level, overall health status, and risk of a heart attack. In addition, demographic and biological data were collected. Results: A total of 101 Masonic men took part in the study; their mean age (± standard ­deviation was 55.35±9.17 years and mean body mass index was 28.77±4.51 kg/m2. Answers to the lifestyle questionnaire suggested an overall healthy lifestyle, including good diet and moderate exercise, although despite this ~80% were classified as overweight or obese. The majority of participants felt that they had a low stress level (66.3%, good overall general health (63.4%, and were at low risk of having a heart attack (71.3%. Masons who were overweight were significantly more likely to perceive themselves to be at risk of a heart attack (P=0.025. Conclusion: Despite over half of participants having a moderate to high risk of cardiovascular disease according to traditional risk factors, less than a third perceived themselves to be at high risk. Public health campaigns need to better communicate the significance of traditional cardiovascular risk in order to improve

  10. Cognitive Predictors of Calculations and Number Line Estimation with Whole Numbers and Fractions among At-Risk Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Namkung, Jessica M.; Fuchs, Lynn S.

    2016-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to examine the cognitive predictors of calculations and number line estimation with whole numbers and fractions. At-risk 4th-grade students (N = 139) were assessed on 6 domain-general abilities (i.e., working memory, processing speed, concept formation, language, attentive behavior, and nonverbal reasoning) and…

  11. Efficient calculation of risk measures by importance sampling -- the heavy tailed case

    CERN Document Server

    Hult, Henrik

    2009-01-01

    Computation of extreme quantiles and tail-based risk measures using standard Monte Carlo simulation can be inefficient. A method to speed up computations is provided by importance sampling. We show that importance sampling algorithms, designed for efficient tail probability estimation, can significantly improve Monte Carlo estimators of tail-based risk measures. In the heavy-tailed setting, when the random variable of interest has a regularly varying distribution, we provide sufficient conditions for the asymptotic relative error of importance sampling estimators of risk measures, such as Value-at-Risk and expected shortfall, to be small. The results are illustrated by some numerical examples.

  12. Improving calculation, interpretation and communication of familial colorectal cancer risk: protocol for a randomized controlled trial.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dekker, N.; Hermens, R.P.M.G.; Elwyn, G.; Weijden, G.D.E.M. van der; Nagengast, F.M.; Duijvendijk, P. van; Salemink, S.; Adang, E.M.M.; Krieken, J.H.J.M. van; Ligtenberg, M.J.L.; Hoogerbrugge-van der Linden, N.

    2010-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Individuals with multiple relatives with colorectal cancer (CRC) and/or a relative with early-onset CRC have an increased risk of developing CRC. They are eligible for preventive measures, such as surveillance by regular colonoscopy and/or genetic counselling. Currently, most at-risk ind

  13. Risk-centered calculation of network charges in the power transmission sector; Risikoorientierte Kalkulation von Netznutzungsentgelten in der Stromverteilungswirtschaft

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Maennel, W. [Friedrich-Alexander-Univ., Erlangen-Nuernberg (Germany). Betriebswirtschafliches Inst.

    2004-04-01

    Utilities insist that contrary to the opinions of the Federal Cartel Office and network users, distribution network operation is a high-risk enterprise. The contribution starts by listing typical relevant risks in power distribution and then proceeds to discussing risk factors one by one. Empirical findings generated with the Capital Asset Pricing Mode (CAPM) prove that the conservative approach for calculating the risk-based surcharges laid down in the VV II plus agreement is appropriate. (orig./CB) [German] Entgegen der Auffassung von Bundeskartellbehoerden und Netznutzern ist das stark anlagenintensive Netzgeschaeft mit bedeutsamen Unternehmerrisiken behaftet, deren Ueberwaelzung nur begrenzt moeglich ist. Ausgehend von generell bedeutsamen und typischen Unternehmerrisiken im Stromverteilungssektor beschaeftigt sich der Artikel mit den direkt auf die Eigenkapitalverzinsung einwirkenden Risikofaktoren. Mit dem Capital Asset Pricing Mode (CAPM) genierierte empirische Befunde bestaetigen die konservativen Wagniszuschlaege in der VV II plus. (orig.)

  14. Mathematical child phantom for the calculation of dose to the organs at risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In order to calculate the doses received by the organs of 530 children treated by radiation for cancer between 1945 and 1969 at the G. Roussy Institute, we have developed a computer program for organ location calculation. To calculate the location of each child's organs of interest at the time of the treatment, only two parameters are necessary; sex and height or sex and age when the height at the time of the treatment is unknown. The algorithm is based on the metric studies of growth known as auxology. Each organ is located by one point representing its center. The model has been checked on 100 healthy children

  15. 12 CFR 702.106 - Standard calculation of risk-based net worth requirement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... AFFECTING CREDIT UNIONS PROMPT CORRECTIVE ACTION Net Worth Classification § 702.106 Standard calculation of...) Allowance. Negative one hundred percent (−100%) of the balance of the Allowance for Loan and Lease...

  16. Data Mining Activity for Bone Discipline: Calculating a Factor of Risk for Hip Fracture in Long-Duration Astronauts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ellman, R.; Sibonga, J. D.; Bouxsein, M. L.

    2010-01-01

    The factor-of-risk (Phi), defined as the ratio of applied load to bone strength, is a biomechanical approach to hip fracture risk assessment that may be used to identify subjects who are at increased risk for fracture. The purpose of this project was to calculate the factor of risk in long duration astronauts after return from a mission on the International Space Station (ISS), which is typically 6 months in duration. The load applied to the hip was calculated for a sideways fall from standing height based on the individual height and weight of the astronauts. The soft tissue thickness overlying the greater trochanter was measured from the DXA whole body scans and used to estimate attenuation of the impact force provided by soft tissues overlying the hip. Femoral strength was estimated from femoral areal bone mineral density (aBMD) measurements by dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry (DXA), which were performed between 5-32 days of landing. All long-duration NASA astronauts from Expedition 1 to 18 were included in this study, where repeat flyers were treated as separate subjects. Male astronauts (n=20) had a significantly higher factor of risk for hip fracture Phi than females (n=5), with preflight values of 0.83+/-0.11 and 0.36+/-0.07, respectively, but there was no significant difference between preflight and postflight Phi (Figure 1). Femoral aBMD measurements were not found to be significantly different between men and women. Three men and no women exceeded the theoretical fracture threshold of Phi=1 immediately postflight, indicating that they would likely suffer a hip fracture if they were to experience a sideways fall with impact to the greater trochanter. These data suggest that male astronauts may be at greater risk for hip fracture than women following spaceflight, primarily due to relatively less soft tissue thickness and subsequently greater impact force.

  17. [Forensic risk calculation: basic methodological aspects for the evaluation of the applicability and validity of diverse methods].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Urbaniok, F; Rinne, T; Held, L; Rossegger, A; Endrass, J

    2008-08-01

    Risk assessment instruments have been the subject of a number of validation studies which have mainly examined the psychometric properties known primarily from psychological test development (objectivity, reliability and validity). Hardly any attention was paid to the fact that validation of forensic risk assessment instruments is confronted with a whole row of methodical challenges. Risk assessments include a quantitative and a qualitative component in that they state the probability (quantitative) of a particular offense (qualitative) to occur. To disregard the probabilistic nature of risk calculations leads to methodically faulty assumptions on the predictive validity of an instrument and what represents a suitable statistical method to test it. For example, ROC analyses are considered to be state of the art in the validation of risk assessment instruments. This method does however not take into account the probabilistic nature of prognoses and its results can be interpreted only to a limited degree. ROC analyses for example disregard certain aspects of an instrument's calibration which might lead in an instrument's validation to high ROC values while demonstrating only low validity. Further shortcomings of validation studies are that they ignore changes of risk dispositions or that they don't differentiate between offense specific risks (e. g. any recidivism vs. violent or sexual recidivism). The paper discusses and reviews different quality criteria of risk assessment instruments in view of methodological as well as practical issues. Many of these criteria have been ignored so far in the scientific discourse even though they are essential to the evaluation of the validity and the scope of indication of an instrument.

  18. Comparing Methods of Calculating Expected Annual Damage in Urban Pluvial Flood Risk Assessments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Skovgård Olsen, Anders; Zhou, Qianqian; Linde, Jens Jørgen;

    2015-01-01

    Estimating the expected annual damage (EAD) due to flooding in an urban area is of great interest for urban water managers and other stakeholders. It is a strong indicator for a given area showing how vulnerable it is to flood risk and how much can be gained by implementing e.g., climate change...

  19. Calculated Risk Taking in the Treatment of Suicidal Patients: Ethical and Legal Problems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maltsberger, John T.

    1994-01-01

    Discusses discharge of suicidal patients from inpatient care from both economic and ethical perspectives. Suggests that clinicians must exercise prudence in discharging patients unlikely to recover, considering duty to preserve life. Encourages discharge when benefits outweigh risks, with careful preparation of patient and family and meticulous…

  20. Comparison of the historic recycling risk for BSE in three European Countries by calculating RO.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schwermer, H.; Koeijer, de A.A.; Brülisauer, F.; Heim, D.

    2007-01-01

    Adeterministic model of BSE transmission is used to calculate the R0 values for specific years of the BSE epidemics in the United Kingdom (UK), the Netherlands (NL), and Switzerland (CH). In all three countries, theR0 values decreased below 1 after the introduction of a ban on feeding meat and bone

  1. Risk Management for Complex Calculations: EuSpRIG Best Practices in Hybrid Applications

    CERN Document Server

    Cernauskas, Deborah; VanVliet, Ben

    2008-01-01

    As the need for advanced, interactive mathematical models has increased, user/programmers are increasingly choosing the MatLab scripting language over spreadsheets. However, applications developed in these tools have high error risk, and no best practices exist. We recommend that advanced, highly mathematical applications incorporate these tools with spreadsheets into hybrid applications, where developers can apply EuSpRIG best practices. Development of hybrid applications can reduce the potential for errors, shorten development time, and enable higher level operations. We believe that hybrid applications are the future and over the course of this paper, we apply and extend spreadsheet best practices to reduce or prevent risks in hybrid Excel/MatLab applications.

  2. Transport calculations and accelerator experiments needed for radiation risk assessment in space

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The major uncertainties on space radiation risk estimates in humans are associated to the poor knowledge of the biological effects of low and high LET radiation, with a smaller contribution coming from the characterization of space radiation field and its primary interactions with the shielding and the human body. However, to decrease the uncertainties on the biological effects and increase the accuracy of the risk coefficients for charged particles radiation, the initial charged-particle spectra from the Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCRs) and the Solar Particle Events (SPEs), and the radiation transport through the shielding material of the space vehicle and the human body, must be belter estimated. Since it is practically impossible to measure all primary and secondary particles from all possible position-projectile-target-energy combinations needed for a correct risk assessment in space, accurate particle and heavy ion transport codes must be used. These codes are also needed when estimating the risk for radiation induced failures in advanced microelectronics, such as single-event effects, etc., and the efficiency of different shielding materials. It is therefore important that the models and transport codes will be carefully benchmarked and validated to make sure they fulfill preset accuracy criteria, e.g. to be able to predict particle fluence, dose and energy distributions within a certain accuracy. When validating the accuracy of the transport codes, both space and ground based accelerator experiments are needed. The efficiency of passive shielding and protection of electronic devices should also be tested in accelerator experiments and compared to simulations using different transport codes. In this paper different multipurpose particle and heavy ion transport codes will be presented, different concepts of shielding and protection discussed, as well as future accelerator experiments needed for testing and validating codes and shielding materials. (orig.)

  3. RISKIND: A computer program for calculating radiological consequences and health risks from transportation of spent nuclear fuel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This report presents the technical details of RISIUND, a computer code designed to estimate potential radiological consequences and health risks to individuals and the collective population from exposures associated with the transportation of spent nuclear fuel. RISKIND is a user-friendly, semiinteractive program that can be run on an IBM or equivalent personal computer. The program language is FORTRAN-77. Several models are included in RISKIND that have been tailored to calculate the exposure to individuals under various incident-free and accident conditions. The incidentfree models assess exposures from both gamma and neutron radiation and can account for different cask designs. The accident models include accidental release, atmospheric transport, and the environmental pathways of radionuclides from spent fuels; these models also assess health risks to individuals and the collective population. The models are supported by databases that are specific to spent nuclear fuels and include a radionudide inventory and dose conversion factors

  4. RISKIND: A computer program for calculating radiological consequences and health risks from transportation of spent nuclear fuel

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yuan, Y.C. [Square Y, Orchard Park, NY (United States); Chen, S.Y.; LePoire, D.J. [Argonne National Lab., IL (United States). Environmental Assessment and Information Sciences Div.; Rothman, R. [USDOE Idaho Field Office, Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    1993-02-01

    This report presents the technical details of RISIUND, a computer code designed to estimate potential radiological consequences and health risks to individuals and the collective population from exposures associated with the transportation of spent nuclear fuel. RISKIND is a user-friendly, semiinteractive program that can be run on an IBM or equivalent personal computer. The program language is FORTRAN-77. Several models are included in RISKIND that have been tailored to calculate the exposure to individuals under various incident-free and accident conditions. The incidentfree models assess exposures from both gamma and neutron radiation and can account for different cask designs. The accident models include accidental release, atmospheric transport, and the environmental pathways of radionuclides from spent fuels; these models also assess health risks to individuals and the collective population. The models are supported by databases that are specific to spent nuclear fuels and include a radionudide inventory and dose conversion factors.

  5. RISKIND: A computer program for calculating radiological consequences and health risks from transportation of spent nuclear fuel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This report presents the technical details of RISKIND, a computer code designed to estimate potential radiological consequences and health risks to individuals and the collective population from exposures associated with the transportation of spent nuclear fuel. RISKIND is a user-friendly, interactive program that can be run on an IBM or equivalent personal computer under the Windows trademark environment. Several models are included in RISKIND that have been tailored to calculate the exposure to individuals under various incident-free and accident conditions. The incident-free models assess exposures from both gamma and neutron radiation and can account for different cask designs. The accident models include accidental release, atmospheric transport, and the environmental pathways of radionuclides from spent fuels; these models also assess health risks to individuals and the collective population. The models are supported by databases that are specific to spent nuclear fuels and include a radionuclide inventory and dose conversion factors. In addition, the flexibility of the models allows them to be used for assessing any accidental release involving radioactive materials. The RISKIND code allows for user-specified accident scenarios as well as receptor locations under various exposure conditions, thereby facilitating the estimation of radiological consequences and health risks for individuals. Median (50% probability) and typical worst-case (less than 5% probability of being exceeded) doses and health consequences from potential accidental releases can be calculated by constructing a cumulative dose/probability distribution curve for a complete matrix of site joint-wind-frequency data. These consequence results, together with the estimated probability of the entire spectrum of potential accidents, form a comprehensive, probabilistic risk assessment of a spent nuclear fuel transportation accident

  6. RISKIND: A computer program for calculating radiological consequences and health risks from transportation of spent nuclear fuel

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yuan, Y.C. [Square Y Consultants, Orchard Park, NY (US); Chen, S.Y.; Biwer, B.M.; LePoire, D.J. [Argonne National Lab., IL (US)

    1995-11-01

    This report presents the technical details of RISKIND, a computer code designed to estimate potential radiological consequences and health risks to individuals and the collective population from exposures associated with the transportation of spent nuclear fuel. RISKIND is a user-friendly, interactive program that can be run on an IBM or equivalent personal computer under the Windows{trademark} environment. Several models are included in RISKIND that have been tailored to calculate the exposure to individuals under various incident-free and accident conditions. The incident-free models assess exposures from both gamma and neutron radiation and can account for different cask designs. The accident models include accidental release, atmospheric transport, and the environmental pathways of radionuclides from spent fuels; these models also assess health risks to individuals and the collective population. The models are supported by databases that are specific to spent nuclear fuels and include a radionuclide inventory and dose conversion factors. In addition, the flexibility of the models allows them to be used for assessing any accidental release involving radioactive materials. The RISKIND code allows for user-specified accident scenarios as well as receptor locations under various exposure conditions, thereby facilitating the estimation of radiological consequences and health risks for individuals. Median (50% probability) and typical worst-case (less than 5% probability of being exceeded) doses and health consequences from potential accidental releases can be calculated by constructing a cumulative dose/probability distribution curve for a complete matrix of site joint-wind-frequency data. These consequence results, together with the estimated probability of the entire spectrum of potential accidents, form a comprehensive, probabilistic risk assessment of a spent nuclear fuel transportation accident.

  7. When the Details Matter – Sensitivities in PRA Calculations That Could Affect Risk-Informed Decision-Making

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dana L. Kelly; Nathan O. Siu

    2010-06-01

    As the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) continues its efforts to increase its use of risk information in decision making, the detailed, quantitative results of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) calculations are coming under increased scrutiny. Where once analysts and users were not overly concerned with figure of merit variations that were less than an order of magnitude, now factors of two or even less can spark heated debate regarding modeling approaches and assumptions. The philosophical and policy-related aspects of this situation are well-recognized by the PRA community. On the other hand, the technical implications for PRA methods and modeling have not been as widely discussed. This paper illustrates the potential numerical effects of choices as to the details of models and methods for parameter estimation with three examples: 1) the selection of the time period data for parameter estimation, and issues related to component boundary and failure mode definitions; 2) the selection of alternative diffuse prior distributions, including the constrained noninformative prior distribution, in Bayesian parameter estimation; and 3) the impact of uncertainty in calculations for recovery of offsite power.

  8. GRiP - A flexible approach for calculating risk as a function of consequence, vulnerability, and threat.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Whitfield, R. G.; Buehring, W. A.; Bassett, G. W. (Decision and Information Sciences)

    2011-04-08

    Get a GRiP (Gravitational Risk Procedure) on risk by using an approach inspired by the physics of gravitational forces between body masses! In April 2010, U.S. Department of Homeland Security Special Events staff (Protective Security Advisors [PSAs]) expressed concern about how to calculate risk given measures of consequence, vulnerability, and threat. The PSAs believed that it is not 'right' to assign zero risk, as a multiplicative formula would imply, to cases in which the threat is reported to be extremely small, and perhaps could even be assigned a value of zero, but for which consequences and vulnerability are potentially high. They needed a different way to aggregate the components into an overall measure of risk. To address these concerns, GRiP was proposed and developed. The inspiration for GRiP is Sir Isaac Newton's Universal Law of Gravitation: the attractive force between two bodies is directly proportional to the product of their masses and inversely proportional to the squares of the distance between them. The total force on one body is the sum of the forces from 'other bodies' that influence that body. In the case of risk, the 'other bodies' are the components of risk (R): consequence, vulnerability, and threat (which we denote as C, V, and T, respectively). GRiP treats risk as if it were a body within a cube. Each vertex (corner) of the cube represents one of the eight combinations of minimum and maximum 'values' for consequence, vulnerability, and threat. The risk at each of the vertices is a variable that can be set. Naturally, maximum risk occurs when consequence, vulnerability, and threat are at their maximum values; minimum risk occurs when they are at their minimum values. Analogous to gravitational forces among body masses, the GRiP formula for risk states that the risk at any interior point of the box depends on the squares of the distances from that point to each of the eight vertices. The risk

  9. KOHBRA BRCA risk calculator (KOHCal): a model for predicting BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutations in Korean breast cancer patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kang, Eunyoung; Park, Sue K; Lee, Jong Won; Kim, Zisun; Noh, Woo-Chul; Jung, Yongsik; Yang, Jung-Hyun; Jung, Sung Hoo; Kim, Sung-Won

    2016-05-01

    The widely used Western BRCA mutation prediction models underestimated the risk of having a BRCA mutation in Korean breast cancer patients. This study aimed to identify predictive factors for BRCA1/2 mutations and to develop a Korean BRCA risk calculator. The model was constructed by logistic regression model, and it was based on the Korean Hereditary Breast Cancer study, in which 1669 female patients were enrolled between May 2007 and December 2010. A separate data set of 402 patients, who were enrolled from Jan 2011 to August 2012, was used to test the performance of our model. In total, 264 (15.8%) and 67 (16.7%) BRCA mutation carriers were identified in the model and validation set, respectively. Multivariate analysis showed that age at breast cancer diagnosis, bilateral breast cancer, triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) and the number of relatives with breast or ovarian cancer within third-degree relatives were independent predictors of the BRCA mutation among familial breast cancer patients. An age cancer, both breast and ovarian cancer and TNBC remained significant predictors in non-familial breast cancer cases. Our model was developed based on logistic regression models. The validation results showed no differences between the observed and expected carrier probabilities. This model will be a useful tool for providing genetic risk assessments in Korean populations. PMID:26763880

  10. Can Western Based Online Prostate Cancer Risk Calculators Be Used to Predict Prostate Cancer after Prostate Biopsy for the Korean Population?

    OpenAIRE

    Lee, Dong Hoon; Jung, Ha Bum; Park, Jae Won; Kim, Kyu Hyun; Kim, Jongchan; Lee, Seung Hwan; Chung, Byung Ha

    2013-01-01

    Purpose To access the predictive value of the European Randomized Screening of Prostate Cancer Risk Calculator (ERSPC-RC) and the Prostate Cancer Prevention Trial Risk Calculator (PCPT-RC) in the Korean population. Materials and Methods We retrospectively analyzed the data of 517 men who underwent transrectal ultrasound guided prostate biopsy between January 2008 and November 2010. Simple and multiple logistic regression analysis were performed to compare the result of prostate biopsy. Area u...

  11. Coefficients calculations of conversion of cancer risk for occupational exposure using Monte Carlo simulations in cardiac procedures of interventionist radiology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cardiac procedures are among the most common procedures in interventional radiology (IR), and can lead to high medical and occupational exposures, as in most cases are procedures complex and long lasting. In this work, conversion coefficients (CC) for the risk of cancer, normalized by kerma area product (KAP) to the patient, cardiologist and nurse were calculated using Monte Carlo simulation. The patient and the cardiologist were represented by anthropomorphic simulators MESH, and the nurse by anthropomorphic phantom FASH. Simulators were incorporated into the code of Monte Carlo MCNPX. Two scenarios were created: in the first (1), lead curtain and protective equipment suspended were not included, and in the second (2) these devices were inserted. The radiographic parameters employed in Monte Carlo simulations were: tube voltage of 60 kVp and 120 kVp; filtration of the beam and 3,5 mmAl beam area of 10 x 10 cm2. The average values of CCs to eight projections (in 10-4 / Gy.cm2 were 1,2 for the patient, 2,6E-03 (scenario 1) and 4,9E-04 (scenario 2) for cardiologist and 5,2E-04 (scenario 1) and 4,0E-04 (Scenario 2) to the nurse. The results show a significant reduction in CCs for professionals, when the lead curtain and protective equipment suspended are employed. The evaluation method used in this work can provide important information on the risk of cancer patient and professional, and thus improve the protection of workers in cardiac procedures of RI

  12. Determination of the UV solar risk in Argentina with high-resolution maps calculated using TOMS ozone climatology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piacentini, Rubén D.; Cede, Alexander; Luccini, Eduardo; Stengel, Fernando

    2004-01-01

    The connection between ultraviolet (UV) radiation and various skin diseases is well known. In this work, we present the computer program "UVARG", developed in order to prevent the risk of getting sunburn for persons exposed to solar UV radiation in Argentina, a country that extends from low (tropical) to high southern hemisphere latitudes. The software calculates the so-called "erythemal irradiance", i.e., the spectral irradiance weighted by the McKinlay and Diffey action spectrum for erythema and integrated in wavelength. The erythemal irradiance depends mainly on the following geophysical parameters: solar elevation, total ozone column, surface altitude, surface albedo, total aerosol optical depth and Sun-Earth distance. Minor corrections are due to the variability in the vertical ozone, aerosol, pressure, humidity and temperature profiles and the extraterrestrial spectral solar UV irradiance. Key parameter in the software is a total ozone column climatology incorporating monthly averages, standard deviations and tendencies for the particular geographical situation of Argentina that was obtained from TOMS/NASA satellite data from 1978 to 2000. Different skin types are considered in order to determine the sunburn risk at any time of the day and any day of the year, with and without sunscreen protection. We present examples of the software for three different regions: the high altitude tropical Puna of Atacama desert in the North-West, Tierra del Fuego in the South when the ozone hole event overpasses and low summertime ozone conditions over Buenos Aires, the largest populated city in the country. In particular, we analyzed the maximum time for persons having different skin types during representative days of the year (southern hemisphere equinoxes and solstices). This work was made possible by the collaboration between the Argentine Skin Cancer Foundation, the Institute of Physics Rosario (CONICET-National University of Rosario, Argentina) and the Institute of

  13. 17 CFR 240.17i-7 - Calculations of allowable capital and risk allowances or alternative capital assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... factor. Each Value at Risk model shall meet the applicable qualitative and quantitative requirements set... risk management control system and practices, including a review of the Value at Risk model used to... capital and risk allowances or alternative capital assessment. 240.17i-7 Section 240.17i-7 Commodity...

  14. First-trimester risk calculation for trisomy 13, 18, and 21: comparison of the screening efficiency between 2 locally developed programs and commercial software

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Steen; Momsen, Günther; Sundberg, Karin;

    2011-01-01

    Reliable individual risk calculation for trisomy (T) 13, 18, and 21 in first-trimester screening depends on good estimates of the medians for fetal nuchal translucency thickness (NT), free β-subunit of human chorionic gonadotropin (hCGβ), and pregnancy-associated plasma protein-A (PAPP-A) in mate......Reliable individual risk calculation for trisomy (T) 13, 18, and 21 in first-trimester screening depends on good estimates of the medians for fetal nuchal translucency thickness (NT), free β-subunit of human chorionic gonadotropin (hCGβ), and pregnancy-associated plasma protein-A (PAPP...

  15. First-trimester risk calculation for trisomy 13, 18, and 21: comparison of the screening efficiency between 2 locally developed programs and commercial software

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Steen; Momsen, Günther; Sundberg, Karin;

    2011-01-01

    Reliable individual risk calculation for trisomy (T) 13, 18, and 21 in first-trimester screening depends on good estimates of the medians for fetal nuchal translucency thickness (NT), free ß-subunit of human chorionic gonadotropin (hCGß), and pregnancy-associated plasma protein-A (PAPP-A) in mate......Reliable individual risk calculation for trisomy (T) 13, 18, and 21 in first-trimester screening depends on good estimates of the medians for fetal nuchal translucency thickness (NT), free ß-subunit of human chorionic gonadotropin (hCGß), and pregnancy-associated plasma protein-A (PAPP...

  16. Calculation of Expected Shortfall for Measuring Risk and Its Application%评估风险的期望损失计算及应用研究

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    YAN Chun-ning; YU Peng; HUANG Yang-xin

    2005-01-01

    Expected shortfall(ES) is a new method to measure market risk. In this paper, an example was presented to illustrate that the ES is coherent but value-at-risk(VaR) is not coherent. Three formulas for calculating the ES based on historical simulation method,normal method and GARCH method were derived. Further, a numerical experiment on optimizing portfolio using ES was provided.

  17. External validation of the Prostate Cancer Prevention Trial and the European Randomized Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer risk calculators in a Chinese cohort

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Yao Zhu; Ding-Wei Ye; Jin-You Wang; Yi-Jun Shen; Bo Dai; Chun-Guang Ma; Wen-Jun Xiao; Guo-Wen Lin; Xu-Dong Yao; Shi-Lin Zhang

    2012-01-01

    Several prediction models have been developed to estimate the outcomes of prostate biopsies.Most of these teels were designed for use with Western populations and have not been validated across different ethnic groups.Therefore,we evaluated the predictive value of the Prostate Cancer Prevention Trial (PCPT) and the European Randomized Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer (ERSPC) risk calculators in a Chinese cohort.Clinicopathological information was obtained from 495 Chinese men who had undergone extended prostate biopsies between January 2009 and March 2011.The estimated probabilities of prostate cancer and high-grade disease (Gleason >6) were calculated using the PCPT and ERSPC risk calculators.Overall measures,discrimination,calibration and clinical usefulness were assessed for the model evaluation.Of these patients,28.7% were diagnosed with prostate cancer and 19.4% had high-grade disease.Compared to the PCPT model and the prostate-specific antigen (PSA) threshold of 4 ng ml-1,the ERSPC risk calculator exhibited better discriminative ability for predicting positive biopsies and high-grade disease (the area under the curve was 0.831 and 0.852,respectively,P<0.01 for both).Decision curve analysis also suggested the favourable clinical utility of the ERSPC calculator in the validation dataset.Both prediction models demonstrated miscalibration:the risk of prostate cancer and high-grade disease was overestimated by approximately 20% for a wide range of predicted probabilities.In conclusion,the ERSPC risk calculator outperformed both the PCPT model and the PSA threshold of 4 ng ml-1 in predicting prostate cancer and high-grade disease in Chinese patients.However,the prediction tools derived from Western men significantly overestimated the probability of prostate cancer and high-grade disease compared to the outcomes of biopsies in a Chinese cohort.

  18. Natural and anthropogenic multi-pathway risks associated with naturally occurring uranium mineralization in aquifers: Scoping calculations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    -concentration mechanisms such as caliches or reduction and retention of uranium in peatforming soils which are common in the area. Identification and closure of the relatively few near-field wells responsible for remobilization of environmentally sensitive metals and radionuclides would result in a reduction of future contamination of agricultural soils and crops and consequent reduction of risk. A model of roll-front concentration and remobilization from agricultural pumping may also be considered as a possible analog for the far-field effects of a high-level nuclear waste repository such as the Yucca Mountain Project. The analog includes soil re-concentration as well as possible pre-concentration mechanisms. At present, the far-field model accommodates only advection and diffusion to create a dilute plume intercepted by agricultural wells. This paper describes the scoping calculations used to estimate soil buildup of radionuclides, transfer to crops, and the eventual increased risk to a designated critical group. (author)

  19. Insecticide contamination of the River Meuse in August 2007. Risk Assessment on the basis of MAM calculations

    OpenAIRE

    Penailillo B.R.; Morales, Y.(Dipartimento di Fisica dell’Università and Sezione INFN, Turin, Italy); Meijers, E

    2008-01-01

    On 31 July the company Chimac-Agriphar from Ougrée discharged 64 kilo chlorpyrifos and 12 kilo cypermethrin into the River Meuse, imposing risks to recreation (swimming and fishing), ecology (about 20 to 25 ton fish were killed) and drinking water production. In this study a retrospective risk analysis of this accidental spill was done in order to get more understanding of the risks on fish and drinking water production. The exposure is characterized through environmental concentrations of cy...

  20. Development and pilot feasibility study of a health information technology tool to calculate mortality risk for patients with asymptomatic carotid stenosis: the Carotid Risk Assessment Tool (CARAT)

    OpenAIRE

    Faerber, Adrienne E.; Horvath, Rebecca; Stillman, Carey; O’Connell, Melissa L; Hamilton, Amy L; Newhall, Karina A; Likosky, Donald S.; Goodney, Philip P.

    2015-01-01

    Background Patients with no history of stroke but with stenosis of the carotid arteries can reduce the risk of future stroke with surgery or stenting. At present, a physicians’ ability to recommend optimal treatments based on an individual’s risk profile requires estimating the likelihood that a patient will have a poor peri-operative outcomes and the likelihood that the patient will survive long enough to gain benefit from the procedure. We describe the development of the CArotid Risk Assess...

  1. 概率安全分析软件RiskA与RiskSpectrum的故障树计算引擎计算对比分析研究%Calculation Engine Comparison of Probabilistic Safety Analysis Program RiskA and RiskSpectrum

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    殷园; 汪进; 陈珊琦; 王芳; 王家群

    2014-01-01

    本文采用完整的秦山第三核电厂PSA模型,分别用中科院 FDS团队自主研发的概率安全分析软件 RiskA的计算引擎 RiskAT与瑞典斯堪伯奥公司开发的 RiskSpectrum 的计算引擎 RSAT 进行了计算,结果表明二者定性和定量计算结果一致,在计算性能方面,RiskA的计算速度快于 RiskSpectrum.%With mockup model of Qinshan Ⅲ, RiskA and RiskSpectrum calculation engines were compared.RiskA was probabilistic safety analysis program independently developed by FDS Team,and Risk Spectrum was another similar program developed by Sweden Scand Power which was widely used.The comparison showed that the calculation results were exactly the same,and the computing speed of RiskA was faster than Risk Spectrum.

  2. Insecticide contamination of the River Meuse in August 2007. Risk Assessment on the basis of MAM calculations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Penailillo B.R.; Morales, Y.; Meijers, E.

    2008-01-01

    On 31 July the company Chimac-Agriphar from Ougrée discharged 64 kilo chlorpyrifos and 12 kilo cypermethrin into the River Meuse, imposing risks to recreation (swimming and fishing), ecology (about 20 to 25 ton fish were killed) and drinking water production. In this study a retrospective risk analy

  3. Unknown Safety and Efficacy of Smartphone Bolus Calculator Apps Puts Patients at Risk for Severe Adverse Outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hirsch, Irl B; Parkin, Christopher G

    2016-07-01

    Manual calculation of bolus insulin dosages can be challenging for individuals treated with multiple daily insulin injections (MDI) therapy. Automated bolus calculator capability has recently been made available via enhanced blood glucose meters and smartphone apps. Use of this technology has been shown to improve glycemic control and reduce glycemic variability without changing hypoglycemia; however, the clinical utility of app-based bolus calculators has not been demonstrated. Moreover, recent evidence challenges the safety and efficacy of these smartphone apps. Although the ability to automatically calculate bolus insulin dosages addresses a critical need of MDI-treated individuals, this technology raises concerns about efficacy of treatment and the protection of patient safety. This article discusses key issues and considerations associated with automated bolus calculator use. PMID:26798082

  4. Risk assessment of diazinon to birds using the Tier I Eco-Risk Calculator model%应用Tier I Eco-Risk Calculator模型评估二嗪磷对鸟类的风险

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    韩志华; 程燕; 周军英; 单正军

    2011-01-01

    在室内急性毒性试验的基础上,应用Tier I Eco-Risk calculator模型对50%二嗪磷乳油对日本鹌鹑的生态风险进行了评价.50%二嗪磷乳油的经口毒性LD50值为每1kg体重4.61 mg;经食毒性LC50值为每1kg饲料120.0 mg.模型预测结果表明:直接经口暴露时,50%二嗪磷乳油对鹌鹑具有急性高风险;经食暴露时,其对鹌鹑产生急性风险的可能性也较高.因此,应禁止在鸟类保护区或其临近地区使用二嗪磷,在不影响药效的基础上尽可能减少使用量,改变剂型或使用方法等,以降低二嗪磷对鸟类的风险.%Tier I Eco-Risk Calculator was used to predict the risks of diazinon 500 EC to Japanese Quail ( Coturnix japonica) basing on the results of in-door acute toxicity tests. The acute toxicity tests showed that the oral LD50of diazinon 500 EC to C. japonica is 4. 61 mg per 1 kg body weight,and the dietary LC50 of diazinon 500 EC to C. japonica is 120 mg per 1 kg diet. The output of model showed that, for seed treatment, diazinon posed a highly acute risk to birds by oral exposure. For application of spray on crops,by the dietary exposure,the risk of diazinon to birds was also high. Therefore,mitigation measures were discussed in order to reduce its risk to birds. And the adoptable measures include:prohibit from applying in or near the Birds Nature Reserves;reduce the application rate, change the formulation or using method were proposed under the condition of not influencing the efficacy.

  5. Clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis in men who have sex with men: risk calculators for real-world decision-making.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anders Chen

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Oral pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP can be clinically effective and cost-effective for HIV prevention in high-risk men who have sex with men (MSM. However, individual patients have different risk profiles, real-world populations vary, and no practical tools exist to guide clinical decisions or public health strategies. We introduce a practical model of HIV acquisition, including both a personalized risk calculator for clinical management and a cost-effectiveness calculator for population-level decisions. METHODS: We developed a decision-analytic model of PrEP for MSM. The primary clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness outcomes were the number needed to treat (NNT to prevent one HIV infection, and the cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY gained. We characterized patients according to risk factors including PrEP adherence, condom use, sexual frequency, background HIV prevalence and antiretroviral therapy use. RESULTS: With standard PrEP adherence and national epidemiologic parameters, the estimated NNT was 64 (95% uncertainty range: 26, 176 at a cost of $160,000 (cost saving, $740,000 per QALY--comparable to other published models. With high (35% HIV prevalence, the NNT was 35 (21, 57, and cost per QALY was $27,000 (cost saving, $160,000, and with high PrEP adherence, the NNT was 30 (14, 69, and cost per QALY was $3,000 (cost saving, $200,000. In contrast, for monogamous, serodiscordant relationships with partner antiretroviral therapy use, the NNT was 90 (39, 157 and cost per QALY was $280,000 ($14,000, $670,000. CONCLUSIONS: PrEP results vary widely across individuals and populations. Risk calculators may aid in patient education, clinical decision-making, and cost-effectiveness evaluation.

  6. Guideline for external radiation and protection. Risk calculation for protection and/or encapsulated sources and surface contamination

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In this guideline an overview is given of the calculation methods that can be or have to be applied for several installations and situations. The starting points of this guideline are conform the amended Decree Radiation Protection as formulated in the Dutch Nuclear Energy Law. In appendix 1 the weakening of ionizing radiation by means of transmission through matter is described. Appendix 2 illustrates the problemacy of the shielding of parallel and diverging bundles of photons on the basis of Monte Carlo simulation

  7. Ambient Levels of Primary and Secondary Pollutants in a Residential Area: Population Risk and Hazard Index Calculation over a Three Years Study Period

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Al-Salem

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper aims at presenting data collected over the period of three years (2004-2006 in a residential area in the state of Kuwait. The data collected include ambient levels of primary and secondary pollutants with a number of metrological parameters. A series of unfiltered and filtered concentration roses were plotted to determine the predominant sources as well as the prevailing winds affecting the area under investigation. Local and international air quality regulations were cross referenced over the course of this study. The main objective was to determine whether this residential area could be considered as a safe site for further urban estate development and the risk of the population residing exposed to carcinogens in the ambient air. Although the hazard index values were within the safe range, the population affected with cancer due to benzene inhalation was increasing based on cancer risk assessment calculations.

  8. Random and systematic errors in case–control studies calculating the injury risk of driving under the influence of psychoactive substances

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Houwing, Sjoerd; Hagenzieker, Marjan; Mathijssen, René P.M.;

    2013-01-01

    Between 2006 and 2010, six population based case-control studies were conducted as part of the European research-project DRUID (DRiving Under the Influence of Drugs, alcohol and medicines). The aim of these case-control studies was to calculate odds ratios indicating the relative risk of serious...... injury in car crashes. The calculated odds ratios in these studies showed large variations, despite the use of uniform guidelines for the study designs. The main objective of the present article is to provide insight into the presence of random and systematic errors in the six DRUID case-control studies....... Relevant information was gathered from the DRUID-reports for eleven indicators for errors. The results showed that differences between the odds ratios in the DRUID case-control studies may indeed be (partially) explained by random and systematic errors. Selection bias and errors due to small sample sizes...

  9. Genetically elevated non-fasting triglycerides and calculated remnant cholesterol as causal risk factors for myocardial infarction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, Anders Berg; Frikke-Schmidt, Ruth; West, Anders Sode;

    2012-01-01

    AimsElevated non-fasting triglycerides mark elevated levels of remnant cholesterol. Using a Mendelian randomization approach, we tested whether genetically increased remnant cholesterol in hypertriglyceridaemia due to genetic variation in the apolipoprotein A5 gene (APOA5) associates with an incr......AimsElevated non-fasting triglycerides mark elevated levels of remnant cholesterol. Using a Mendelian randomization approach, we tested whether genetically increased remnant cholesterol in hypertriglyceridaemia due to genetic variation in the apolipoprotein A5 gene (APOA5) associates...... with an increased risk of myocardial infarction (MI).Methods and resultsWe resequenced the core promoter and coding regions of APOA5 in individuals with the lowest 1% (n = 95) and highest 2% (n = 190) triglyceride levels in the Copenhagen City Heart Study (CCHS, n = 10 391). Genetic variants which differed...... in frequency between the two extreme triglyceride groups (c.-1131T > C, S19W, and c.*31C > T; P-value: 0.06 to...

  10. Verification and sensitivity of the calculational methods used in the PATHRAE code to predict subsurface contaminant transport for risk assessments of SRP waste sites

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fjeld, R.A.; Elzerman, A.W.; Overcamp, T.J.; Giannopoulos, N.; Crider, S.; Sill, B.L.

    1986-10-01

    Presented in this report are an independent verification of the subsurface contaminant transport calculations contained in the code and an assessment of the sensitivity of predicted contaminant concentrations to uncertainties in transport parameters. The subsurface transport approximation incorporated in the PATHRAE risk assessment code was compared with alternate two-dimensional and three-dimensional approximations and with the EPA VHS model. Agreement between the PATHRAE approximation and the alternate two-dimensional approximation was good. Due to its neglect of vertical dispersion, the PATHRAE model predicted higher groundwater (undiluted) concentrations than the three-dimensional approximation and, for EPA parameters, the VHS model. The use of a value of zero for horizontal dispersivity, as specified for 1 m and 100 m wells in SPR waste site analyses, was found to add an additional degree of conservatism to PATHRAE estimates of groundwater concentration, yielding levels that were more than three orders of magnitude higher than those of the three-dimensional model for a 100 m well. Implementation of the transport approximation in the PATHRAE code was verified by comparing code generated concentrations with those of an independent calculation for wide ranges of the input parameters. Agreement between PATHRAE and the independent calculations was excellent.

  11. Propossal of a model for the calculation of doses and of the risk due to inhalation and ingestion of radionuclides from nuclear facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    An improvement of existing models for the various body components and simulates the human body metabolic behaviour as a whole, are presented. It takes into account the uptake of material, via nose or mouth, up to its excretion by urine or faeces. It has an aditional choice for calculation, which permits the evaluation of the quantity of material that has settled inside the organism, using the data obtained from the quantitative analysis of the excreta. The simulation of the metabolic process leads to the possibility of dose and detriment estimation as well as the corresponding mortality and genetic risks. Metabolic tests were made for physiological comparison and for the determination of the whole body dose equivalent. Tests were made, using different intake and excretion activities, to verify the validity of the proposed model. (E.G.)

  12. Reliability calculations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Risk and reliability analysis is increasingly being used in evaluations of plant safety and plant reliability. The analysis can be performed either during the design process or during the operation time, with the purpose to improve the safety or the reliability. Due to plant complexity and safety and availability requirements, sophisticated tools, which are flexible and efficient, are needed. Such tools have been developed in the last 20 years and they have to be continuously refined to meet the growing requirements. Two different areas of application were analysed. In structural reliability probabilistic approaches have been introduced in some cases for the calculation of the reliability of structures or components. A new computer program has been developed based upon numerical integration in several variables. In systems reliability Monte Carlo simulation programs are used especially in analysis of very complex systems. In order to increase the applicability of the programs variance reduction techniques can be applied to speed up the calculation process. Variance reduction techniques have been studied and procedures for implementation of importance sampling are suggested. (author)

  13. 定量的信息安全风险评估计算模型的研究%STUDY ON CALCULATION MODEL OF QUANTITATIVE ASSESSMENT OF INFORMATION SECURITY RISK

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    孙强

    2012-01-01

    为解决信息安全风险评估过程中信息难以量化分析的问题,在原有定性风险评估方法的基础上,提出一种定量的信息安全风险评估方法.通过对风险的量化分析,使得信息安全风险评估过程中风险值的计算更加科学和准确,解决了以往定性分析方法数据计算粗略、不准确和难于区分风险的重要程度等问题.通过信息安全风险评估过程中的实际应用,表明该方法具有一定的可行性.%In order to overcome the difficulty in quantitative analysis on assessment process of information security risk, a new quantitative assessment method for information security risk is proposed, which is based on original qualitative risk assessment method. Through the quantitative analysis on risk, the method makes the calculation of risk value in assessment process of information security risk more scientific and accurate, thereby solves the problems of previous qualitative analysis method, such as rough data calculation, inaccuracy and the difficulty in differentiating the importance of the risks. Practical application of the new method in assessment process of information security risk verifies its feasibility in certain extent.

  14. MEMS Calculator

    Science.gov (United States)

    SRD 166 MEMS Calculator (Web, free access)   This MEMS Calculator determines the following thin film properties from data taken with an optical interferometer or comparable instrument: a) residual strain from fixed-fixed beams, b) strain gradient from cantilevers, c) step heights or thicknesses from step-height test structures, and d) in-plane lengths or deflections. Then, residual stress and stress gradient calculations can be made after an optical vibrometer or comparable instrument is used to obtain Young's modulus from resonating cantilevers or fixed-fixed beams. In addition, wafer bond strength is determined from micro-chevron test structures using a material test machine.

  15. Reliability Calculations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petersen, Kurt Erling

    1986-01-01

    approaches have been introduced in some cases for the calculation of the reliability of structures or components. A new computer program has been developed based upon numerical integration in several variables. In systems reliability Monte Carlo simulation programs are used especially in analysis of very...... complex systems. In order to increase the applicability of the programs variance reduction techniques can be applied to speed up the calculation process. Variance reduction techniques have been studied and procedures for implementation of importance sampling are suggested....

  16. 17 CFR 402.2a - Appendix A-Calculation of market risk haircut for purposes of § 402.2(g)(2).

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... or the term to maturity, whichever is less) corresponding to such category, and the values of funds... such positions form part of a hedge against long and short positions in securities, futures contracts... total position in a Treasury market risk instrument that forms part of such hedge may be excluded...

  17. Reactor safety study. An assessment of accident risks in U.S. commercial nuclear power plants. Appendix VI. Calculation of reactor accident consequences

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Information is presented concerning the radioactive releases from the containment following accidents; radioactive inventory of the reactor core; atmospheric dispersion; reactor sites and meteorological data; radioactive decay and deposition from plumes; finite distance of plume travel; dosimetric models; health effects; demographic data; mitigation of radiation exposure; economic model; and calculated results with consequence model

  18. Random and systematic errors in case-control studies calculating the injury risk of driving under the influence of psychoactive substances

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Houwing, Sjoerd; Hagenzieker, Marjan; Mathijssen, René;

    2013-01-01

    injury in car crashes. The calculated odds ratios in these studies showed large variations, despite the use of uniform guidelines for the study designs. The main objective of the present article is to provide insight into the presence of random and systematic errors in the six DRUID case–control studies...

  19. Reactor safety study. An assessment of accident risks in U. S. commercial nuclear power plants. Appendix VI. Calculation of reactor accident consequences. [PWR and BWR

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1975-10-01

    Information is presented concerning the radioactive releases from the containment following accidents; radioactive inventory of the reactor core; atmospheric dispersion; reactor sites and meteorological data; radioactive decay and deposition from plumes; finite distance of plume travel; dosimetric models; health effects; demographic data; mitigation of radiation exposure; economic model; and calculated results with consequence model.

  20. Burnout calculation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reviewed is the effect of heat flux of different system parameters on critical density in order to give an initial view on the value of several parameters. A thorough analysis of different equations is carried out to calculate burnout is steam-water flows in uniformly heated tubes, annular, and rectangular channels and rod bundles. Effect of heat flux density distribution and flux twisting on burnout and storage determination according to burnout are commended

  1. Calculator calculus

    CERN Document Server

    McCarty, George

    1982-01-01

    How THIS BOOK DIFFERS This book is about the calculus. What distinguishes it, however, from other books is that it uses the pocket calculator to illustrate the theory. A computation that requires hours of labor when done by hand with tables is quite inappropriate as an example or exercise in a beginning calculus course. But that same computation can become a delicate illustration of the theory when the student does it in seconds on his calculator. t Furthermore, the student's own personal involvement and easy accomplishment give hi~ reassurance and en­ couragement. The machine is like a microscope, and its magnification is a hundred millionfold. We shall be interested in limits, and no stage of numerical approximation proves anything about the limit. However, the derivative of fex) = 67.SgX, for instance, acquires real meaning when a student first appreciates its values as numbers, as limits of 10 100 1000 t A quick example is 1.1 , 1.01 , 1.001 , •••• Another example is t = 0.1, 0.01, in the functio...

  2. SU-E-T-634: Analysis of Volume Based GYN HDR Brachytherapy Plans for Dose Calculation to Organs At Risk(OAR)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nair, M; Li, C; White, M; Davis, J [Joe Arrington Cancer Center, Lubbock, TX (United States)

    2014-06-15

    Purpose: We have analyzed the dose volume histogram of 140 CT based HDR brachytherapy plans and evaluated the dose received to OAR ; rectum, bladder and sigmoid colon based on recommendations from ICRU and Image guided brachytherapy working group for cervical cancer . Methods: Our treatment protocol consist of XRT to whole pelvis with 45 Gy at 1.8Gy/fraction followed by 30 Gy at 6 Gy per fraction by HDR brachytherapy in 2 weeks . The CT compatible tandem and ovoid applicators were used and stabilized with radio opaque packing material. The patient was stabilized using special re-locatable implant table and stirrups for reproducibility of the geometry during treatment. The CT scan images were taken at 3mm slice thickness and exported to the treatment planning computer. The OAR structures, bladder, rectum and sigmoid colon were outlined on the images along with the applicators. The prescription dose was targeted to A left and A right as defined in Manchester system and optimized on geometry . The dosimetry was compared on all plans using the parameter Ci.sec.cGy-1 . Using the Dose Volume Histogram (DVH) obtained from the plans the doses to rectum, sigmoid colon and bladder for ICRU defined points and 2cc volume were analyzed and reported. The following criteria were used for limiting the tolerance dose by volume (D2cc) were calculated. The rectum and sigmoid colon doses were limited to <75Gy. The bladder dose was limited to < 90Gy from both XRT and HDR brachytherapy. Results: The average total (XRT+HDRBT) BED values to prescription volume was 120 Gy. Dose 2cc to rectum was 70Gy +/− 17Gy, dose to 2cc bladder was 82+/−32 Gy. The average Ci.sec.cGy-1 calculated for the HDR plans was 6.99 +/− 0.5 Conclusion: The image based treatment planning enabled to evaluati volume based dose to critical structures for clinical interpretation.

  3. Interest Rate Risk and Calculation for Bond with Embedded Option%利率风险及隐含期权调整后的久期计算

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    唐恩林

    2014-01-01

    This paper expounds the meaning of the traditional Macaulay duration .Relaxing the assump-tion of the term structure of interest rate independent with cash flow ,the traditional Macaulay duration cannot effectively and accurately measure the value of financial instruments .At the same time ,based on the assumption of the term structure of interest rate independent with cash flow ,this paper gives the method of calculation for bond with embedded option .%从阐述传统麦考莱久期的含义开始,揭示了传统麦考莱久期在放松利率期限结构和现金流相互独立的假设下无法有效准确的衡量金融工具的现值。同时基于Redington模型对于利率期限结构独立于现金流的假设,给出了隐含期权条件下的久期计算方法。

  4. The Dental Trauma Internet Calculator

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gerds, Thomas Alexander; Lauridsen, Eva Fejerskov; Christensen, Søren Steno Ahrensburg;

    2012-01-01

    Background/Aim Prediction tools are increasingly used to inform patients about the future dental health outcome. Advanced statistical methods are required to arrive at unbiased predictions based on follow-up studies. Material and Methods The Internet risk calculator at the Dental Trauma Guide......) in the period between 1972 and 1991. Subgroup analyses and estimates of event probabilities were based on the Kaplan-Meier and the Aalen-Johansen method. Results The Internet risk calculator shows individualized prognoses for the short and long-term healing outcome of traumatized teeth with the following...... were based on the tooth’s root development stage and other risk factors at the time of the injury. Conclusions This article explains the data base, the functionality and the statistical approach of the Internet risk calculator....

  5. Critical dose and toxicity index of organs at risk in radiotherapy: Analyzing the calculated effects of modified dose fractionation in non–small cell lung cancer

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pedicini, Piernicola, E-mail: ppiern@libero.it [Service of Medical Physics, I.R.C.C.S. Regional Cancer Hospital C.R.O.B, Rionero in Vulture (Italy); Strigari, Lidia [Laboratory of Medical Physics and Expert Systems, Regina Elena National Cancer Institute, Rome (Italy); Benassi, Marcello [Service of Medical Physics, Scientific Institute of Tumours of Romagna I.R.S.T., Meldola (Italy); Caivano, Rocchina [Service of Medical Physics, I.R.C.C.S. Regional Cancer Hospital C.R.O.B, Rionero in Vulture (Italy); Fiorentino, Alba [U.O. of Radiotherapy, I.R.C.C.S. Regional Cancer Hospital C.R.O.B., Rionero in Vulture (Italy); Nappi, Antonio [U.O. of Nuclear Medicine, I.R.C.C.S. Regional Cancer Hospital C.R.O.B., Rionero in Vulture (Italy); Salvatore, Marco [U.O. of Nuclear Medicine, I.R.C.C.S. SDN Foundation, Naples (Italy); Storto, Giovanni [U.O. of Nuclear Medicine, I.R.C.C.S. Regional Cancer Hospital C.R.O.B., Rionero in Vulture (Italy)

    2014-04-01

    To increase the efficacy of radiotherapy for non–small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), many schemes of dose fractionation were assessed by a new “toxicity index” (I), which allows one to choose the fractionation schedules that produce less toxic treatments. Thirty-two patients affected by non resectable NSCLC were treated by standard 3-dimensional conformal radiotherapy (3DCRT) with a strategy of limited treated volume. Computed tomography datasets were employed to re plan by simultaneous integrated boost intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT). The dose distributions from plans were used to test various schemes of dose fractionation, in 3DCRT as well as in IMRT, by transforming the dose-volume histogram (DVH) into a biological equivalent DVH (BDVH) and by varying the overall treatment time. The BDVHs were obtained through the toxicity index, which was defined for each of the organs at risk (OAR) by a linear quadratic model keeping an equivalent radiobiological effect on the target volume. The less toxic fractionation consisted in a severe/moderate hyper fractionation for the volume including the primary tumor and lymph nodes, followed by a hypofractionation for the reduced volume of the primary tumor. The 3DCRT and IMRT resulted, respectively, in 4.7% and 4.3% of dose sparing for the spinal cord, without significant changes for the combined-lungs toxicity (p < 0.001). Schedules with reduced overall treatment time (accelerated fractionations) led to a 12.5% dose sparing for the spinal cord (7.5% in IMRT), 8.3% dose sparing for V{sub 20} in the combined lungs (5.5% in IMRT), and also significant dose sparing for all the other OARs (p < 0.001). The toxicity index allows to choose fractionation schedules with reduced toxicity for all the OARs and equivalent radiobiological effect for the tumor in 3DCRT, as well as in IMRT, treatments of NSCLC.

  6. Medicare Program; Medicare Shared Savings Program; Accountable Care Organizations--Revised Benchmark Rebasing Methodology, Facilitating Transition to Performance-Based Risk, and Administrative Finality of Financial Calculations. Final rule.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-06-10

    Under the Medicare Shared Savings Program (Shared Savings Program), providers of services and suppliers that participate in an Accountable Care Organization (ACO) continue to receive traditional Medicare fee-for-service (FFS) payments under Parts A and B, but the ACO may be eligible to receive a shared savings payment if it meets specified quality and savings requirements. This final rule addresses changes to the Shared Savings Program, including: Modifications to the program's benchmarking methodology, when resetting (rebasing) the ACO's benchmark for a second or subsequent agreement period, to encourage ACOs' continued investment in care coordination and quality improvement; an alternative participation option to encourage ACOs to enter performance-based risk arrangements earlier in their participation under the program; and policies for reopening of payment determinations to make corrections after financial calculations have been performed and ACO shared savings and shared losses for a performance year have been determined. PMID:27295736

  7. Medicare Program; Medicare Shared Savings Program; Accountable Care Organizations--Revised Benchmark Rebasing Methodology, Facilitating Transition to Performance-Based Risk, and Administrative Finality of Financial Calculations. Final rule.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-06-10

    Under the Medicare Shared Savings Program (Shared Savings Program), providers of services and suppliers that participate in an Accountable Care Organization (ACO) continue to receive traditional Medicare fee-for-service (FFS) payments under Parts A and B, but the ACO may be eligible to receive a shared savings payment if it meets specified quality and savings requirements. This final rule addresses changes to the Shared Savings Program, including: Modifications to the program's benchmarking methodology, when resetting (rebasing) the ACO's benchmark for a second or subsequent agreement period, to encourage ACOs' continued investment in care coordination and quality improvement; an alternative participation option to encourage ACOs to enter performance-based risk arrangements earlier in their participation under the program; and policies for reopening of payment determinations to make corrections after financial calculations have been performed and ACO shared savings and shared losses for a performance year have been determined.

  8. 基于航迹误差的空中交通冲突风险计算方法研究%On the air traffic conflict risk calculation method based on the track deviation study

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    赵嶷飞; 徐永祥; 王红勇

    2016-01-01

    This paper is aimed at introducing a method for calculating the conflict risks in the air traffic control,which is oriented for assessing the conflict risks in the to-and-fro air traffic directions.While using the method,what we mean by the air traffic conflict risk,the problem may include two sections,that is,the conflict probability and the conflict severity,which can be stated and analyzed in the following points.First of all,the conflict probability should be based on the track deviation,which involves the so-called Gaussian distribution.In terms of Ganssian distribution,we mean the conflict probability between the two airplanes which are flying in the same air-route in the opposite directions over the next period.Then,it is necessary to calculate the air conflict severity,which involves the conflict duration and distance variation between the two aircraft in flight.And,finally,the air conflict risk has to be worked out in accordance with the conflict probability and conflict severity.In this paper,we have simulated all the flight scenarios of the parallel and intersecting routes so as to gain and arrive at the likely to be conflicting curves,which helps to demonstrate the curves of the likely real-time conflicts and find the potential trends to develop the conflict risks.Furthermore,in order to ensure the applicability of the method,we have taken the actual conflict probability simulated mode for example.And,in final analysis,we have quoted some of the actual flight conflict data to calculate how to get rid of the actual conflicts of the two aircraft.The curve we have prepared can meet the needs to get rid of the likely conflict scenes and verify the usability of the method,which helps to provide better decision-making and effective support for the air-traffic managers and controllers.%随着我国空中交通流量的日益增加,空中交通冲突现象日益严重,为了量化空中交通的安全性,对航空器之间的飞行冲突风险进行了研究.

  9. Prenatal radiation exposure. Dose calculation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The unborn child requires special protection. In this context, the indication for an X-ray examination is to be checked critically. If thereupon radiation of the lower abdomen including the uterus cannot be avoided, the examination should be postponed until the end of pregnancy or alternative examination techniques should be considered. Under certain circumstances, either accidental or in unavoidable cases after a thorough risk assessment, radiation exposure of the unborn may take place. In some of these cases an expert radiation hygiene consultation may be required. This consultation should comprise the expected risks for the unborn while not perturbing the mother or the involved medical staff. For the risk assessment in case of an in-utero X-ray exposition deterministic damages with a defined threshold dose are distinguished from stochastic damages without a definable threshold dose. The occurrence of deterministic damages depends on the dose and the developmental stage of the unborn at the time of radiation. To calculate the risks of an in-utero radiation exposure a three-stage concept is commonly applied. Depending on the amount of radiation, the radiation dose is either estimated, roughly calculated using standard tables or, in critical cases, accurately calculated based on the individual event. The complexity of the calculation thereby increases from stage to stage. An estimation based on stage one is easily feasible whereas calculations based on stages two and especially three are more complex and often necessitate execution by specialists. This article demonstrates in detail the risks for the unborn child pertaining to its developmental phase and explains the three-stage concept as an evaluation scheme. It should be noted, that all risk estimations are subject to considerable uncertainties.

  10. Evaluation of potential severe accidents during low power and shutdown operations at Grand Gulf, Unit 1: Evaluation of severe accident risks for plant operational state 5 during a refueling outage. Supporting MELCOR calculations, Volume 6, Part 2

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kmetyk, L.N.; Brown, T.D. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    1995-03-01

    To gain a better understanding of the risk significance of low power and shutdown modes of operation, the Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research at the NRC established programs to investigate the likelihood and severity of postulated accidents that could occur during low power and shutdown (LP&S) modes of operation at commercial nuclear power plants. To investigate the likelihood of severe core damage accidents during off power conditions, probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) were performed for two nuclear plants: Unit 1 of the Grand Gulf Nuclear Station, which is a BWR-6 Mark III boiling water reactor (BWR), and Unit 1 of the Surry Power Station, which is a three-loop, subatmospheric, pressurized water reactor (PWR). The analysis of the BWR was conducted at Sandia National Laboratories while the analysis of the PWR was performed at Brookhaven National Laboratory. This multi-volume report presents and discusses the results of the BWR analysis. The subject of this part presents the deterministic code calculations, performed with the MELCOR code, that were used to support the development and quantification of the PRA models. The background for the work documented in this report is summarized, including how deterministic codes are used in PRAS, why the MELCOR code is used, what the capabilities and features of MELCOR are, and how the code has been used by others in the past. Brief descriptions of the Grand Gulf plant and its configuration during LP&S operation and of the MELCOR input model developed for the Grand Gulf plant in its LP&S configuration are given.

  11. HENRY'S LAW CALCULATOR

    Science.gov (United States)

    On-Site was developed to provide modelers and model reviewers with prepackaged tools ("calculators") for performing site assessment calculations. The philosophy behind OnSite is that the convenience of the prepackaged calculators helps provide consistency for simple calculations,...

  12. Capacity limit calculation based on risk and conditional risk method for grid-connected photovoltaic power station%基于风险和条件风险方法的光伏电站并网极限容量计算

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    周任军; 黄灵资; 王靓; 杨雨薇; 范文帅; 刘阳升

    2012-01-01

    Since the connection of large-scale photovoltaic power station to power grid may impact the stable operation of power grid,its maximum capacity is restricted. For calculating it,the stochastic optimization model based on the risk and conditional risk method is proposed,which takes the maximum capacity of grid-connected photovoltaic power station as its optimal goal and considers the impact of extreme situation as well. Monte Carlo simulation and analytical method are used to transform and discretize the conditional risky function for avoiding the difficulty of direct calculation. Simulative results show that,the model considers the random variation of light intensity and has small calculation load and high accuracy.%大规模光伏电站并网会影响电网的安全稳定运行,因此其并网极限容量受到限制.提出了风险和条件风险的随机性优化方法,建立了并网光伏电站极限容量计算的条件风险随机优化模型,该模型以光伏电站并网极限容量为优化目标,同时考虑了极端情况的影响.为了解决条件风险函数直接计算困难的问题,采用蒙特卡罗模拟和解析法将条件风险函数变换和离散化.仿真结果表明,该模型适用于考虑了光照强度随机变化情况下的并网光伏电站极限容量的计算,计算量小,准确性较高.

  13. Strategic Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Derleth, Jason; Lobia, Marcus

    2009-01-01

    This slide presentation provides an overview of the attempt to develop and demonstrate a methodology for the comparative assessment of risks across the entire portfolio of NASA projects and assets. It includes information about strategic risk identification, normalizing strategic risks, calculation of relative risk score, and implementation options.

  14. Risk and Risk Management

    OpenAIRE

    Mirela Iloiu

    2005-01-01

    Risk exists whenever the future is unknown. This paper deals with the concepts of risk and uncertainty, risk attitudes and reaction to risk. It is explained the distinction between objective risk and subjective risk. Also, it presents risk attitudes and factors affecting them and the economic costs of risk: costs of unexpected losses and costs of uncertainty.

  15. Distillation Calculations with a Programmable Calculator.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walker, Charles A.; Halpern, Bret L.

    1983-01-01

    Describes a three-step approach for teaching multicomponent distillation to undergraduates, emphasizing patterns of distribution as an aid to understanding the separation processes. Indicates that the second step can be carried out by programmable calculators. (A more complete set of programs for additional calculations is available from the…

  16. Canister Transfer Facility Criticality Calculations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    J.E. Monroe-Rammsy

    2000-10-13

    The objective of this calculation is to evaluate the criticality risk in the surface facility for design basis events (DBE) involving Department of Energy (DOE) Spent Nuclear Fuel (SNF) standardized canisters (Civilian Radioactive Waste Management System [CRWMS] Management and Operating Contractor [M&O] 2000a). Since some of the canisters will be stored in the surface facility before they are loaded in the waste package (WP), this calculation supports the demonstration of concept viability related to the Surface Facility environment. The scope of this calculation is limited to the consideration of three DOE SNF fuels, specifically Enrico Fermi SNF, Training Research Isotope General Atomic (TRIGA) SNF, and Mixed Oxide (MOX) Fast Flux Test Facility (FFTF) SNF.

  17. Autistic Savant Calendar Calculators.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patti, Paul J.

    This study identified 10 savants with developmental disabilities and an exceptional ability to calculate calendar dates. These "calendar calculators" were asked to demonstrate their abilities, and their strategies were analyzed. The study found that the ability to calculate dates into the past or future varied widely among these calculators. Three…

  18. Personal Finance Calculations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Argo, Mark

    1982-01-01

    Contains explanations and examples of mathematical calculations for a secondary level course on personal finance. How to calculate total monetary cost of an item, monthly payments, different types of interest, annual percentage rates, and unit pricing is explained. (RM)

  19. Flexible Mental Calculation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Threlfall, John

    2002-01-01

    Suggests that strategy choice is a misleading characterization of efficient mental calculation and that teaching mental calculation methods as a whole is not conducive to flexibility. Proposes an alternative in which calculation is thought of as an interaction between noticing and knowledge. Presents an associated teaching approach to promote…

  20. Evaluating Energy Sector Investments: Calculating Volatility

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edson de Oliveira Pamplona

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available A major task in assessing risks of investment projects is defining the approach to calculating the project’s volatility. Looking at assorted estimation techniques, this paper calculates their volatilities. The techniques originate from authors in the area and involve project-specific variables of uncertainty. These techniques are applied to a case of electricity distribution through real options. Results are then compared. The difference between the calculated volatilities was low, leaving, in the case of the project evaluated here, the decision unchanged. The paper’s contribution consists of providing a detailed presentation of calculating volatility by the methods cited and by comparing the results obtained by its application.

  1. Assessment of cardiovascular risk.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Cooney, Marie Therese

    2010-10-01

    Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the most common cause of death worldwide. Usually atherosclerosis is caused by the combined effects of multiple risk factors. For this reason, most guidelines on the prevention of CVD stress the assessment of total CVD risk. The most intensive risk factor modification can then be directed towards the individuals who will derive the greatest benefit. To assist the clinician in calculating the effects of these multiple interacting risk factors, a number of risk estimation systems have been developed. This review address several issues regarding total CVD risk assessment: Why should total CVD risk be assessed? What risk estimation systems are available? How well do these systems estimate risk? What are the advantages and disadvantages of the current systems? What are the current limitations of risk estimation systems and how can they be resolved? What new developments have occurred in CVD risk estimation?

  2. Core calculations of JMTR

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nagao, Yoshiharu [Japan Atomic Energy Research Inst., Oarai, Ibaraki (Japan). Oarai Research Establishment

    1998-03-01

    In material testing reactors like the JMTR (Japan Material Testing Reactor) of 50 MW in Japan Atomic Energy Research Institute, the neutron flux and neutron energy spectra of irradiated samples show complex distributions. It is necessary to assess the neutron flux and neutron energy spectra of an irradiation field by carrying out the nuclear calculation of the core for every operation cycle. In order to advance core calculation, in the JMTR, the application of MCNP to the assessment of core reactivity and neutron flux and spectra has been investigated. In this study, in order to reduce the time for calculation and variance, the comparison of the results of the calculations by the use of K code and fixed source and the use of Weight Window were investigated. As to the calculation method, the modeling of the total JMTR core, the conditions for calculation and the adopted variance reduction technique are explained. The results of calculation are shown. Significant difference was not observed in the results of neutron flux calculations according to the difference of the modeling of fuel region in the calculations by K code and fixed source. The method of assessing the results of neutron flux calculation is described. (K.I.)

  3. Economic profitability evolution at the Carpathian Commercial Bank , in relation to aggregate values of calculated in the Romanian banking system in the period 2007-2010 and the need to identify banking risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    MEDAR LUCIAN-ION

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available The management of credit institutions must be concerned with identifying the internal and external risks of banking operations development, estimating their size and importance, assessing the possibility and imposing measures for their management. On the one hand, the identification, analysis, and mitigation of banking risks can cause reduction of inconvenient and uneconomical costs and realization of incomes with the role of shock absorber in profits reduction, and on the other hand, ignoring them can lead to loss reflected in the profit decrease, thus affecting the bank performance.

  4. Measuring Model Risk

    OpenAIRE

    Thomas Breuer; Imre Csiszar

    2013-01-01

    We propose to interpret distribution model risk as sensitivity of expected loss to changes in the risk factor distribution, and to measure the distribution model risk of a portfolio by the maximum expected loss over a set of plausible distributions defined in terms of some divergence from an estimated distribution. The divergence may be relative entropy, a Bregman distance, or an $f$-divergence. We give formulas for the calculation of distribution model risk and explicitly determine the worst...

  5. Electrical installation calculations basic

    CERN Document Server

    Kitcher, Christopher

    2013-01-01

    All the essential calculations required for basic electrical installation workThe Electrical Installation Calculations series has proved an invaluable reference for over forty years, for both apprentices and professional electrical installation engineers alike. The book provides a step-by-step guide to the successful application of electrical installation calculations required in day-to-day electrical engineering practice. A step-by-step guide to everyday calculations used on the job An essential aid to the City & Guilds certificates at Levels 2 and 3Fo

  6. Electronics Environmental Benefits Calculator

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — The Electronics Environmental Benefits Calculator (EEBC) was developed to assist organizations in estimating the environmental benefits of greening their purchase,...

  7. Electrical installation calculations advanced

    CERN Document Server

    Kitcher, Christopher

    2013-01-01

    All the essential calculations required for advanced electrical installation workThe Electrical Installation Calculations series has proved an invaluable reference for over forty years, for both apprentices and professional electrical installation engineers alike. The book provides a step-by-step guide to the successful application of electrical installation calculations required in day-to-day electrical engineering practiceA step-by-step guide to everyday calculations used on the job An essential aid to the City & Guilds certificates at Levels 2 and 3For apprentices and electrical installatio

  8. Back-calculation method shows that within-flock transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza (H7N7) virus in the Netherlands is not influenced by housing risk factors

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bos, M.E.H.; Nielen, M.; Koch, G.; Bouma, A.; Jong, de M.C.M.; Stegeman, J.A.

    2009-01-01

    To optimize control of an avian influenza outbreak knowledge of within-flock transmission is needed. This study used field data to estimate the transmission rate parameter (ß) and the influence of risk factors on within-flock transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H7N7 virus in the

  9. 一种新的风险度量工具:PaV及其计算框架%A New Tool Measuring Risks:PaV and Its Calculating Frame

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    杜本峰; 郭兴义

    2003-01-01

    The paper proposes a new tool to measure the risk in financial market: PaV, which means the happening probability with the given loss magnitude, and utilizes Copula function to obtain its computing algorithm. Two cases are illustrated for the promising applications of PaV.

  10. PROSPECTS OF MANAGEMENT ACCOUNTING AND COST CALCULATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marian ŢAICU

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Progress in improving production technology requires appropriate measures to achieve an efficient management of costs. This raises the need for continuous improvement of management accounting and cost calculation. Accounting information in general, and management accounting information in particular, have gained importance in the current economic conditions, which are characterized by risk and uncertainty. The future development of management accounting and cost calculation is essential to meet the information needs of management.

  11. PROSPECTS OF MANAGEMENT ACCOUNTING AND COST CALCULATION

    OpenAIRE

    Marian ŢAICU

    2014-01-01

    Progress in improving production technology requires appropriate measures to achieve an efficient management of costs. This raises the need for continuous improvement of management accounting and cost calculation. Accounting information in general, and management accounting information in particular, have gained importance in the current economic conditions, which are characterized by risk and uncertainty. The future development of management accounting and cost calculation is essential to me...

  12. Calculators and Polynomial Evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weaver, J. F.

    The intent of this paper is to suggest and illustrate how electronic hand-held calculators, especially non-programmable ones with limited data-storage capacity, can be used to advantage by students in one particular aspect of work with polynomial functions. The basic mathematical background upon which calculator application is built is summarized.…

  13. 基于Matlab计算的KMV模型在商业银行信用风险管理中的应用%KMV model calculations based on Matlab in Commercial Bank Credit Risk Management

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    李园

    2014-01-01

    社会经济的不断发展,金融行业也处于不断发展之中,服务范围也得到更广泛的拓展,在金融企业发展的同时也出现了一系列问题,商业银行的不断发展,过去银行风险管理的方式已经不能满足新时代银行各种风险因素的控制需求,非常有必要加强风险管理体系的构建,强化商业银行的抗风险能力,让商业银行作为一个资金交流支撑,能够更好地给发行者与投资者提供更准确的商业信息,降低银行的信用风险。本文主要分析了Matlab计算函数中的KMV模型在商业银行信用风险管理中的应用。%The social economy continues to develop,the financial sector is also growing among a wider range of services has also been expansion in the financial business development while there have been a series of problems,the continuous development of the commercial banks in the past the bank's risk management mode can not meet the needs of a new era of banking various control risk factors is necessary to strengthen the risk management system to build,strengthen anti-risk ability of commercial banks,commercial banks make money as an exchange of support,better able to give the publisher and investors provide more accurate business information,reduce the credit risk of banks.This paper analyzes the function of the Matlab computing KMV model in commercial bank credit risk management.

  14. Relativistic shell model calculations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Furnstahl, R. J.

    1986-06-01

    Shell model calculations are discussed in the context of a relativistic model of nuclear structure based on renormalizable quantum field theories of mesons and baryons (quantum hadrodynamics). The relativistic Hartree approximation to the full field theory, with parameters determined from bulk properties of nuclear matter, predicts a shell structure in finite nuclei. Particle-hole excitations in finite nuclei are described in an RPA calculation based on this QHD ground state. The particle-hole interaction is prescribed by the Hartree ground state, with no additional parameters. Meson retardation is neglected in deriving the RPA equations, but it is found to have negligible effects on low-lying states. The full Dirac matrix structure is maintained throughout the calculation; no nonrelativistic reductions are made. Despite sensitive cancellations in the ground state calculation, reasonable excitation spectra are obtained for light nuclei. The effects of including charged mesons, problems with heavy nuclei, and prospects for improved and extended calculations are discussed.

  15. nuclear reactor design calculations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In this work , the sensitivity of different reactor calculation methods, and the effect of different assumptions and/or approximation are evaluated . A new concept named error map is developed to determine the relative importance of different factors affecting the accuracy of calculations. To achieve this goal a generalized, multigroup, multi dimension code UAR-DEPLETION is developed to calculate the spatial distribution of neutron flux, effective multiplication factor and the spatial composition of a reactor core for a period of time and for specified reactor operating conditions. The code also investigates the fuel management strategies and policies for the entire fuel cycle to meet the constraints of material and operating limitations

  16. Large scale GW calculations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    We present GW calculations of molecules, ordered and disordered solids and interfaces, which employ an efficient contour deformation technique for frequency integration and do not require the explicit evaluation of virtual electronic states nor the inversion of dielectric matrices. We also present a parallel implementation of the algorithm, which takes advantage of separable expressions of both the single particle Green's function and the screened Coulomb interaction. The method can be used starting from density functional theory calculations performed with semilocal or hybrid functionals. The newly developed technique was applied to GW calculations of systems of unprecedented size, including water/semiconductor interfaces with thousands of electrons

  17. Radioactive cloud dose calculations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Radiological dosage principles, as well as methods for calculating external and internal dose rates, following dispersion and deposition of radioactive materials in the atmosphere are described. Emphasis has been placed on analytical solutions that are appropriate for hand calculations. In addition, the methods for calculating dose rates from ingestion are discussed. A brief description of several computer programs are included for information on radionuclides. There has been no attempt to be comprehensive, and only a sampling of programs has been selected to illustrate the variety available

  18. Methods for Melting Temperature Calculation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hong, Qi-Jun

    Melting temperature calculation has important applications in the theoretical study of phase diagrams and computational materials screenings. In this thesis, we present two new methods, i.e., the improved Widom's particle insertion method and the small-cell coexistence method, which we developed in order to capture melting temperatures both accurately and quickly. We propose a scheme that drastically improves the efficiency of Widom's particle insertion method by efficiently sampling cavities while calculating the integrals providing the chemical potentials of a physical system. This idea enables us to calculate chemical potentials of liquids directly from first-principles without the help of any reference system, which is necessary in the commonly used thermodynamic integration method. As an example, we apply our scheme, combined with the density functional formalism, to the calculation of the chemical potential of liquid copper. The calculated chemical potential is further used to locate the melting temperature. The calculated results closely agree with experiments. We propose the small-cell coexistence method based on the statistical analysis of small-size coexistence MD simulations. It eliminates the risk of a metastable superheated solid in the fast-heating method, while also significantly reducing the computer cost relative to the traditional large-scale coexistence method. Using empirical potentials, we validate the method and systematically study the finite-size effect on the calculated melting points. The method converges to the exact result in the limit of a large system size. An accuracy within 100 K in melting temperature is usually achieved when the simulation contains more than 100 atoms. DFT examples of Tantalum, high-pressure Sodium, and ionic material NaCl are shown to demonstrate the accuracy and flexibility of the method in its practical applications. The method serves as a promising approach for large-scale automated material screening in which

  19. Handout on shielding calculation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In order to avoid the difficulties of the radioprotection supervisors in the tasks related to shielding calculations, is presented in this paper the basic concepts of shielding theory. It also includes exercises and examples. (author)

  20. Calculativeness and trust

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frederiksen, Morten

    2014-01-01

    . Contrary to Williamson, however, Løgstrup’s contention is that trust, not calculativeness, is the default attitude and only when suspicion is awoken does trust falter. The paper argues that while Williamson’s distinction between calculativeness and trust is supported by phenomenology, the analysis needs......Williamson’s characterisation of calculativeness as inimical to trust contradicts most sociological trust research. However, a similar argument is found within trust phenomenology. This paper re-investigates Williamson’s argument from the perspective of Løgstrup’s phenomenological theory of trust...... to take actual subjective experience into consideration. It points out that, first, Løgstrup places trust alongside calculativeness as a different mode of engaging in social interaction, rather conceiving of trust as a state or the outcome of a decision-making process. Secondly, the analysis must take...

  1. A Simple Calculator Algorithm.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cook, Lyle; McWilliam, James

    1983-01-01

    The problem of finding cube roots when limited to a calculator with only square root capability is discussed. An algorithm is demonstrated and explained which should always produce a good approximation within a few iterations. (MP)

  2. EFFECTIVE DISCHARGE CALCULATION GUIDE

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    D.S.BIEDENHARN; C.R.THORNE; P.J.SOAR; R.D.HEY; C.C.WATSON

    2001-01-01

    This paper presents a procedure for calculating the effective discharge for rivers with alluvial channels.An alluvial river adjusts the bankfull shape and dimensions of its channel to the wide range of flows that mobilize the boundary sediments. It has been shown that time-averaged river morphology is adjusted to the flow that, over a prolonged period, transports most sediment. This is termed the effective discharge.The effective discharge may be calculated provided that the necessary data are available or can be synthesized. The procedure for effective discharge calculation presented here is designed to have general applicability, have the capability to be applied consistently, and represent the effects of physical processes responsible for determining the channel, dimensions. An example of the calculations necessary and applications of the effective discharge concept are presented.

  3. Unit Cost Compendium Calculations

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — The Unit Cost Compendium (UCC) Calculations raw data set was designed to provide for greater accuracy and consistency in the use of unit costs across the USEPA...

  4. Geometric unsharpness calculations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Anderson, D.J. [International Training and Education Group (INTEG), Oakville, Ontario (Canada)

    2008-07-15

    The majority of radiographers' geometric unsharpness calculations are normally performed with a mathematical formula. However, a majority of codes and standards refer to the use of a nomograph for this calculation. Upon first review, the use of a nomograph appears more complicated but with a few minutes of study and practice it can be just as effective. A review of this article should provide enlightenment. (author)

  5. Scientific calculating peripheral

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ethridge, C.D.; Nickell, J.D. Jr.; Hanna, W.H.

    1979-09-01

    A scientific calculating peripheral for small intelligent data acquisition and instrumentation systems and for distributed-task processing systems is established with a number-oriented microprocessor controlled by a single component universal peripheral interface microcontroller. A MOS/LSI number-oriented microprocessor provides the scientific calculating capability with Reverse Polish Notation data format. Master processor task definition storage, input data sequencing, computation processing, result reporting, and interface protocol is managed by a single component universal peripheral interface microcontroller.

  6. Current interruption transients calculation

    CERN Document Server

    Peelo, David F

    2014-01-01

    Provides an original, detailed and practical description of current interruption transients, origins, and the circuits involved, and how they can be calculated Current Interruption Transients Calculationis a comprehensive resource for the understanding, calculation and analysis of the transient recovery voltages (TRVs) and related re-ignition or re-striking transients associated with fault current interruption and the switching of inductive and capacitive load currents in circuits. This book provides an original, detailed and practical description of current interruption transients, origins,

  7. Electrical installation calculations

    CERN Document Server

    Watkins, AJ

    2006-01-01

    Designed to provide a step by step guide to successful application of the electrical installation calculations required in day to day electrical engineering practice, the Electrical Installation Calculations series has proved an invaluable reference for over forty years, for both apprentices and professional electrical installation engineers alike.Now in its seventh edition, Volume 1 has been fully updated to meet the requirements of the 2330 Level 2 Certificate in Electrotechnical Technology from City & Guilds, and will also prove a vi

  8. Uncertainty calculations made easier

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hogenbirk, A.

    1994-07-01

    The results are presented of a neutron cross section sensitivity/uncertainty analysis performed in a complicated 2D model of the NET shielding blanket design inside the ITER torus design, surrounded by the cryostat/biological shield as planned for ITER. The calculations were performed with a code system developed at ECN Petten, with which sensitivity/uncertainty calculations become relatively simple. In order to check the deterministic neutron transport calculations (performed with DORT), calculations were also performed with the Monte Carlo code MCNP. Care was taken to model the 2.0 cm wide gaps between two blanket segments, as the neutron flux behind the vacuum vessel is largely determined by neutrons streaming through these gaps. The resulting neutron flux spectra are in excellent agreement up to the end of the cryostat. It is noted, that at this position the attenuation of the neutron flux is about 1 l orders of magnitude. The uncertainty in the energy integrated flux at the beginning of the vacuum vessel and at the beginning of the cryostat was determined in the calculations. The uncertainty appears to be strongly dependent on the exact geometry: if the gaps are filled with stainless steel, the neutron spectrum changes strongly, which results in an uncertainty of 70% in the energy integrated flux at the beginning of the cryostat in the no-gap-geometry, compared to an uncertainty of only 5% in the gap-geometry. Therefore, it is essential to take into account the exact geometry in sensitivity/uncertainty calculations. Furthermore, this study shows that an improvement of the covariance data is urgently needed in order to obtain reliable estimates of the uncertainties in response parameters in neutron transport calculations. (orig./GL).

  9. Uncertainty calculations made easier

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The results are presented of a neutron cross section sensitivity/uncertainty analysis performed in a complicated 2D model of the NET shielding blanket design inside the ITER torus design, surrounded by the cryostat/biological shield as planned for ITER. The calculations were performed with a code system developed at ECN Petten, with which sensitivity/uncertainty calculations become relatively simple. In order to check the deterministic neutron transport calculations (performed with DORT), calculations were also performed with the Monte Carlo code MCNP. Care was taken to model the 2.0 cm wide gaps between two blanket segments, as the neutron flux behind the vacuum vessel is largely determined by neutrons streaming through these gaps. The resulting neutron flux spectra are in excellent agreement up to the end of the cryostat. It is noted, that at this position the attenuation of the neutron flux is about 1 l orders of magnitude. The uncertainty in the energy integrated flux at the beginning of the vacuum vessel and at the beginning of the cryostat was determined in the calculations. The uncertainty appears to be strongly dependent on the exact geometry: if the gaps are filled with stainless steel, the neutron spectrum changes strongly, which results in an uncertainty of 70% in the energy integrated flux at the beginning of the cryostat in the no-gap-geometry, compared to an uncertainty of only 5% in the gap-geometry. Therefore, it is essential to take into account the exact geometry in sensitivity/uncertainty calculations. Furthermore, this study shows that an improvement of the covariance data is urgently needed in order to obtain reliable estimates of the uncertainties in response parameters in neutron transport calculations. (orig./GL)

  10. Risk and Benefit Calculation of Bao Steel Blast Furnace Slag Water Waste Heat Recovery EMC Project%宝钢高炉冲渣水余热利用合同能源管理项目风险及效益计算

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    戴海波

    2015-01-01

    对宝钢高炉冲渣水余热利用合同能源管理项目进引资金风险评估和效益计算,确立项目可行性,为项目的实施提供必要的依据.%The article introduces investment risk assessment and benefit calculation of Bao Steel blast furnace slag water waste heat recovery EMC project. It establishes feasibility of project and provides basic support for project implementation.

  11. Shuttle Risk Progression by Flight

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamlin, Teri; Kahn, Joe; Thigpen, Eric; Zhu, Tony; Lo, Yohon

    2011-01-01

    Understanding the early mission risk and progression of risk as a vehicle gains insights through flight is important: . a) To the Shuttle Program to understand the impact of re-designs and operational changes on risk. . b) To new programs to understand reliability growth and first flight risk. . Estimation of Shuttle Risk Progression by flight: . a) Uses Shuttle Probabilistic Risk Assessment (SPRA) and current knowledge to calculate early vehicle risk. . b) Shows impact of major Shuttle upgrades. . c) Can be used to understand first flight risk for new programs.

  12. Big Bang Nucleosynthesis Calculation

    CERN Document Server

    Kurki-Suonio, H

    2001-01-01

    I review standard big bang nucleosynthesis and some versions of nonstandard BBN. The abundances of the primordial isotopes D, He-3, and Li-7 produced in standard BBN can be calculated as a function of the baryon density with an accuracy of about 10%. For He-4 the accuracy is better than 1%. The calculated abundances agree fairly well with observations, but the baryon density of the universe cannot be determined with high precision. Possibilities for nonstandard BBN include inhomogeneous and antimatter BBN and nonzero neutrino chemical potentials.

  13. Multidimensional Risk Analysis: MRISK

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCollum, Raymond; Brown, Douglas; O'Shea, Sarah Beth; Reith, William; Rabulan, Jennifer; Melrose, Graeme

    2015-01-01

    Multidimensional Risk (MRISK) calculates the combined multidimensional score using Mahalanobis distance. MRISK accounts for covariance between consequence dimensions, which de-conflicts the interdependencies of consequence dimensions, providing a clearer depiction of risks. Additionally, in the event the dimensions are not correlated, Mahalanobis distance reduces to Euclidean distance normalized by the variance and, therefore, represents the most flexible and optimal method to combine dimensions. MRISK is currently being used in NASA's Environmentally Responsible Aviation (ERA) project o assess risk and prioritize scarce resources.

  14. Dynamics Calculation of Spoke

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2011-01-01

    Compared with ellipse cavity, the spoke cavity has many advantages, especially for the low and medium beam energy. It will be used in the superconductor accelerator popular in the future. Based on the spoke cavity, we design and calculate an accelerator

  15. Daylight calculations in practice

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Iversen, Anne; Roy, Nicolas; Hvass, Mette;

    programs can give different results. This can be due to restrictions in the program itself and/or be due to the skills of the persons setting up the models. This is crucial as daylight calculations are used to document that the demands and recommendations to daylight levels outlined by building authorities...

  16. Languages for structural calculations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The differences between human and computing languages are recalled. It is argued that they are to some extent structured in antagonistic ways. Languages in structural calculation, in the past, present, and future, are considered. The contribution of artificial intelligence is stressed

  17. Curvature calculations with GEOCALC

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moussiaux, A.; Tombal, P.

    1987-04-01

    A new method for calculating the curvature tensor has been recently proposed by D. Hestenes. This method is a particular application of geometric calculus, which has been implemented in an algebraic programming language on the form of a package called GEOCALC. They show how to apply this package to the Schwarzchild case and they discuss the different results.

  18. Risk management

    OpenAIRE

    McManus, John

    2009-01-01

    Few projects are completed on time, on budget, and to their original requirement or specifications. Focusing on what project managers need to know about risk in the pursuit of delivering projects, Risk Management covers key components of the risk management process and the software development process, as well as best practices for risk identification, risk planning, and risk analysis. The book examines risk planning, risk analysis responses to risk, the tracking and modelling of risks, intel...

  19. Credit Risk Evaluation : Modeling - Analysis - Management

    OpenAIRE

    Wehrspohn, Uwe

    2002-01-01

    An analysis and further development of the building blocks of modern credit risk management: -Definitions of default -Estimation of default probabilities -Exposures -Recovery Rates -Pricing -Concepts of portfolio dependence -Time horizons for risk calculations -Quantification of portfolio risk -Estimation of risk measures -Portfolio analysis and portfolio improvement -Evaluation and comparison of credit risk models -Analytic portfolio loss distributions The thesis contributes to the evaluatio...

  20. Presenting numerical risk estimates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Environment Agency for England and Wales has, together with the other Environment Agencies, published guidance on the requirements for authorisation for the disposal of low-level and intermediate-level radioactive waste. The guidance specifies an individual risk target for the post-closure period, and requires developers to consider collective radiological impacts. Information on how risks and impacts should be calculated or assessed has not been published. The objectives of this report are to provide background information on the calculation of risk, to review how regulatory regimes for other activities and in other countries use risk criteria, including both individual and societal risk criteria. Conclusions and recommendations are presented on how the Environment Agency might develop additional guidance to ensure that safety cases meet the Agency's requirements

  1. Studiees on quantitative risk acceptance criteria and comparative risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Two aspects of risk assessment are investigated in this report. The first deals with the comparison of selected technological risks with several proposed and augmented risk acceptance criteria. The second deals with preliminary criteria for comparative risk acceptance. It is found that values put forth for individual risk acceptance criterial appear to be at the lower end of implicitly accepted or calculated risks. Individual risk acceptance criteria based on a graded benefit scale are difficult to apply because it is difficult to determine the exact degree of benefit for each technology. Comparative risk assessment is difficult because technologies producing the same benefits often have disparate risks (i.e., range of impact, manifestation and degree of uncertainty). When the risks are not disparate, the benefits are usually quiite different. A set of preliminary criteria for comparative risk assessment are, however, proposed and discussed

  2. Quantifizierung des perioperativen Risikos [Quantifications of perioperative risk

    OpenAIRE

    Ohmann, C; Lorenz, Wilfried

    1987-01-01

    In this paper standardized and quantitative definitions of perioperative risk and risk factor using probabilities are given. A calculation of risk and risk factors is performed using data from a study on perioperative risk in colon resection and a study on a preoperative risk check in general surgery. The problem of one risk factor, a combination of two risk factors and the use of many risk factors to quantify preoperative risk is discussed. Confidence intervals are recommended as a standard ...

  3. Zero Temperature Hope Calculations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rozsnyai, B F

    2002-07-26

    The primary purpose of the HOPE code is to calculate opacities over a wide temperature and density range. It can also produce equation of state (EOS) data. Since the experimental data at the high temperature region are scarce, comparisons of predictions with the ample zero temperature data provide a valuable physics check of the code. In this report we show a selected few examples across the periodic table. Below we give a brief general information about the physics of the HOPE code. The HOPE code is an ''average atom'' (AA) Dirac-Slater self-consistent code. The AA label in the case of finite temperature means that the one-electron levels are populated according to the Fermi statistics, at zero temperature it means that the ''aufbau'' principle works, i.e. no a priory electronic configuration is set, although it can be done. As such, it is a one-particle model (any Hartree-Fock model is a one particle model). The code is an ''ion-sphere'' model, meaning that the atom under investigation is neutral within the ion-sphere radius. Furthermore, the boundary conditions for the bound states are also set at the ion-sphere radius, which distinguishes the code from the INFERNO, OPAL and STA codes. Once the self-consistent AA state is obtained, the code proceeds to generate many-electron configurations and proceeds to calculate photoabsorption in the ''detailed configuration accounting'' (DCA) scheme. However, this last feature is meaningless at zero temperature. There is one important feature in the HOPE code which should be noted; any self-consistent model is self-consistent in the space of the occupied orbitals. The unoccupied orbitals, where electrons are lifted via photoexcitation, are unphysical. The rigorous way to deal with that problem is to carry out complete self-consistent calculations both in the initial and final states connecting photoexcitations, an enormous computational task

  4. Linewidth calculations and simulations

    CERN Document Server

    Strandberg, Ingrid

    2016-01-01

    We are currently developing a new technique to further enhance the sensitivity of collinear laser spectroscopy in order to study the most exotic nuclides available at radioactive ion beam facilities, such as ISOLDE at CERN. The overall goal is to evaluate the feasibility of the new method. This report will focus on the determination of the expected linewidth (hence resolution) of this approach. Different effects which could lead to a broadening of the linewidth, e.g. the ions' energy spread and their trajectories inside the trap, are studied with theoretical calculations as well as simulations.

  5. Calculations in furnace technology

    CERN Document Server

    Davies, Clive; Hopkins, DW; Owen, WS

    2013-01-01

    Calculations in Furnace Technology presents the theoretical and practical aspects of furnace technology. This book provides information pertinent to the development, application, and efficiency of furnace technology. Organized into eight chapters, this book begins with an overview of the exothermic reactions that occur when carbon, hydrogen, and sulfur are burned to release the energy available in the fuel. This text then evaluates the efficiencies to measure the quantity of fuel used, of flue gases leaving the plant, of air entering, and the heat lost to the surroundings. Other chapters consi

  6. Matlab numerical calculations

    CERN Document Server

    Lopez, Cesar

    2015-01-01

    MATLAB is a high-level language and environment for numerical computation, visualization, and programming. Using MATLAB, you can analyze data, develop algorithms, and create models and applications. The language, tools, and built-in math functions enable you to explore multiple approaches and reach a solution faster than with spreadsheets or traditional programming languages, such as C/C++ or Java. This book is designed for use as a scientific/business calculator so that you can get numerical solutions to problems involving a wide array of mathematics using MATLAB. Just look up the function y

  7. State of risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In view of the growing importance assumed in recent years by scientific work on the calculation, quantification, evaluation and acceptance as well as behavior in the face of risks in general and more specifically, the risks of large industrial plants, the report attempts to provide a survey of the current situation, results and evaluation of this new branch of research, risk assessment. The emphasis of the report is on the basic discussion and criticism of the theoretical and methodological approaches used in the field of risk assessment (section 3). It is concerned above all with - methodical problems of determining and quantifying risks (3.1) - questions of the possibility of risk evaluation and comp arison (3.1, 3.2) - the premises of normative and empirical studies on decision making under risk (3.2, 3.3) - investigations into society's acceptance of risks involved in the introduction of new technologies (3.4) - attempts to combine various aspects of the field of risk assessment in a unified concept (3.5, 3.6, 3.7). Because risk assessment is embedded in the framework of decision theory and technology assessment, it can be implicitly evaluated at a more general level within this framework, as far as its possibilities and weaknesses of method and application are concerned (section 4). Sections 2 and 5 deal with the social context of origin and utilization of risk assessment. Finally, an attempt is made at a summary indicating the possible future development of risk assessment. (orig./HP)

  8. Configuration space Faddeev calculations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The detailed study of few-body systems provides one of the most effective means for studying nuclear physics at subnucleon distance scales. For few-body systems the model equations can be solved numerically with errors less than the experimental uncertainties. We have used such systems to investigate the size of relativistic effects, the role of meson-exchange currents, and the importance of quark degrees of freedom in the nucleus. Complete calculations for momentum-dependent potentials have been performed, and the properties of the three-body bound state for these potentials have been studied. Few-body calculations of the electromagnetic form factors of the deuteron and pion have been carried out using a front-form formulation of relativistic quantum mechanics. The decomposition of the operators transforming convariantly under the Poincare group into kinematical and dynamical parts has been studies. New ways for constructing interactions between particles, as well as interactions which lead to the production of particles, have been constructed in the context of a relativistic quantum mechanics. To compute scattering amplitudes in a nonperturbative way, classes of operators have been generated out of which the phase operator may be constructed. Finally, we have worked out procedures for computing Clebsch-Gordan and Racah coefficients on a computer, as well as giving procedures for dealing with the multiplicity problem

  9. Multilayer optical calculations

    CERN Document Server

    Byrnes, Steven J

    2016-01-01

    When light hits a multilayer planar stack, it is reflected, refracted, and absorbed in a way that can be derived from the Fresnel equations. The analysis is treated in many textbooks, and implemented in many software programs, but certain aspects of it are difficult to find explicitly and consistently worked out in the literature. Here, we derive the formulas underlying the transfer-matrix method of calculating the optical properties of these stacks, including oblique-angle incidence, absorption-vs-position profiles, and ellipsometry parameters. We discuss and explain some strange consequences of the formulas in the situation where the incident and/or final (semi-infinite) medium are absorptive, such as calculating $T>1$ in the absence of gain. We also discuss some implementation details like complex-plane branch cuts. Finally, we derive modified formulas for including one or more "incoherent" layers, i.e. very thick layers in which interference can be neglected. This document was written in conjunction with ...

  10. Risk measures

    OpenAIRE

    Albrecht, Peter

    2006-01-01

    The present review of (financial) risk measures, prepared for the Encyclopaedia of Actuarial Science, first distinguishes two conceptions of risk. Risk of the first kind conceives risk as the magnitude of (one- or two-sided) deviations from a target, whereas risk of the second kind conceives risk as necessary capital or necessary premium, respectively. Some important axiomatic characterizations of risk measures are reviewed, including a characterization of a correspondence between risk measur...

  11. Risk management

    OpenAIRE

    Michler, Luboš

    2011-01-01

    This thesis deals with the management of business risks. The thesis is divided into two main parts. The first is the literature search and the second is analysis itself. In the first part there is described and defined the very notion of risk, further the theoretical knowledge of the authors dealing with risk management is processed, risk classification, followed by their analysis, methods of risk analysis, risk management, methods of reducing business risk and significance of the risk facto...

  12. Some calculations for TRISTAN

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    I took only few topics to investigate, some on which I had some personal interest, and others that I felt rather crucial for the design. In this document I report my calculations on these various subjects. Therefore this document represents my tangible contribution to TRISTAN design. I give in the following the list of the topics which are discussed in this document. 1. Increase of the vertical betatron emmitance by skew quadrupoles in the electron storage ring. 2. Bremsstrahlung. 3. Dipole correcting system for electron ring. 4. Wigglers at low energies 5. Steady state compensation of beam loading in the single beam mode in the electron storage ring. 6. Coupled bunch longitudinal instability for electron ring. 7. Ion production and trapping in the electron storage ring for TRISTAN. 8. Estimate of the longitudinal impedance for the TRISTAN electron storage ring. (author)

  13. Mathematics, Pricing, Market Risk Management and Trading Strategies for Financial Derivatives (2/3)

    CERN Document Server

    CERN. Geneva; Coffey, Brian

    2009-01-01

    Market Trading and Risk Management of Vanilla FX Options - Measures of Market Risk - Implied Volatility - FX Risk Reversals, FX Strangles - Valuation and Risk Calculations - Risk Management - Market Trading Strategies

  14. Aplicación de una medida de riesgo coherente para el cálculo de la prima de riesgo en un seguro de rentas = Application of a coherent risk measure in the price calculation of an income insurance (annuities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Montserrat Hernández Solís

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Resumen Una práctica común que realizan las entidades aseguradoras es la de modificar las tasas de mortalidad instantánea al aplicar el principio de prima neta con el fin de hacer frente a las desviaciones desfavorables de la siniestralidad. Este documento proporciona una respuesta matemática a esta cuestión mediante la aplicación de la función de distorsión de potencia de Wang. Tanto la prima neta y la función de distorsión de Wang son medidas de riesgo coherentes, siendo este último aplicado por primera vez en el campo delos seguros de vida. Utilizando las leyes de Gompertz y Makeham primero calculamos la prima a nivel general y en una segunda parte, se aplica el principio de cálculo de la prima basado en función de distorsión de potencia de Wang para calcular el recargo sobre la prima de riesgo ajustada. El precio de prima única de riesgo se ha aplicado a una forma de cobertura de seguro de supervivencia, el seguro de rentas. La principal conclusión que puede extraerse es que mediante el uso de la función de distorsión, la nueva tasa instantánea de mortalidad es directamente proporcional a un múltiplo, que es justamente el exponente de esta función y hace que el riesgo de longevidad sea mayor. Esta es la razón por la prima de riesgo ajustada es superior a la prima neta. Abstract Modification of instantaneous mortality rates when applying the net premium principle in order to cope with unfavorable deviations in claims, is common practice carried out by insurance companies. This paper provides a mathematical answer to this matter by applying Wang’s power distortion function. Both net premium and Wang’s distortion function are coherent risk measures, the latter being first applied to the field of life insurance. Using the Gompertz and Makeham laws we first calculate the premium at a general level and in a second part, the principle of premium calculation based on Wang´s power distortion function is applied to calculate

  15. Application of a coherent risk measure in the price calculation of an income insurance (annuities = Aplicación de una medida de riesgo coherente para el cálculo de la prima de riesgo en un seguro de rentas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Montserrat Hernández Solís

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Una práctica común que realizan las entidades aseguradoras es la de modificar las tasas de mortalidad instantánea al aplicar el principio de prima neta con el fin de hacer frente a las desviaciones desfavorables de la siniestralidad. Este documento proporciona una respuesta matemática a esta cuestión mediante la aplicación de la función de distorsión de potencia de Wang. Tanto la prima neta y la función de distorsión de Wang son medidas de riesgo coherentes, siendo este último aplicado por primera vez en el campo delos seguros de vida.Utilizando las leyes de Gompertz y Makeham primero calculamos la prima a nivel general y en una segunda parte, se aplica el principio de cálculo de la prima basado en función de distorsión de potencia de Wang para calcular el recargo sobre la prima de riesgo ajustada. El precio de prima única de riesgo se ha aplicado a una forma de cobertura de seguro de supervivencia, el seguro de rentas.La principal conclusión que puede extraerse es que mediante el uso de la función de distorsión, la nueva tasa instantánea de mortalidad es directamente proporcional a un múltiplo, que es justamente el exponente de esta función y hace que el riesgo de longevidad sea mayor. Esta es la razón por la prima de riesgo ajustada es superior a la prima neta.Modification of instantaneous mortality rates when applying the net premium principle in order to cope with unfavorable deviations in claims, is common practice carried out by insurance companies. This paper provides a mathematical answer to this matter by applying Wang’s power distortion function. Both net premium and Wang’s distortion function are coherent risk measures, the latter being first applied to the field of life insurance.Using the Gompertz and Makeham laws we first calculate the premium at a general level and in a second part, the principle of premium calculation based on Wang´s power distortion function is applied to calculate the adjusted risk

  16. 42 CFR 422.264 - Calculation of savings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 42 Public Health 3 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Calculation of savings. 422.264 Section 422.264 Public Health CENTERS FOR MEDICARE & MEDICAID SERVICES, DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES... and Plan Approval § 422.264 Calculation of savings. (a) Computation of risk adjusted bids...

  17. Risk Management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Randal, L. Nathan

    This chapter of "Principles of School Business Management" presents an overview of risk management for school districts. The chapter first discusses four fundamental elements of risk management: (1) identifying and measuring risks; (2) reducing or eliminating risks; (3) transferring unassumable risks; and (4) assuming remaining risks. The chapter…

  18. Mammography and radiation risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Breast cancer is the most frequent malignant neoplasia among women in Germany. The use of mammography as the most relevant diagnostic procedure has increased rapidly over the last decade. Radiation risks associated with mammography may be estimated from the results of numerous epidemiological studies providing risk coefficients for breast cancer in relation to age at exposure. Various calculations can be performed using the risk coefficients. For instance, a single mammography examination (bilateral, two views of each breast) of a women aged 45 may enhance the risk of developing breast cancer during her lifetime numerically from about 12% of 12.0036%. This increase in risk is lower by a factor of 3,300 as compared to the risk of developing breast cancer in the absence of radiation exposure. At the age of 40 or more, the benefit of mammography exceeds the radiation risk by a factor of about 100. At higher ages this factor increases further. Finally, the dualism of individual risk and collective risk is considered. It is shown that the individual risk of a patient, even after multiple mammography examinations, is vanishingly small. Nevertheless, the basic principle of minimising radiation exposure must be followed to keep the collective risk in the total population as low as reasonably achievable. (orig.)

  19. Willow growing - Methods of calculation and profitability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The calculation method presented here makes it possible to conduct profitability comparisons between annual and perennial crops and in addition take the planning situation into account. The method applied is a modified total step calculation. The difference between a traditional total step calculation and the modified version is the way in which payments and disbursements are taken into account over a period of several years. This is achieved by combining the present value method and the annuity method. The choice of interest rate has great bearing on the result in perennial calculations. The various components influencing the interest rate are analysed and factors relating to the establishment of the interest rate in different situations are described. The risk factor can be an important variable component of the interest rate calculation. Risk is also addressed from an approach in accordance with portfolio theory. The application of the methods sheds light on the profitability of Salix cultivation from the viewpoint of business economics, and also how different factors influence the profitability of Salix cultivation. Aspects studied are harvesting intervals, the importance of yield level, the competitiveness of Salix versus grain cultivation, the influence of income taxes on profitability etc. Methods for evaluation of activities concerning cultivation of a perennial crop are described and also involve the application of nitrogen fertilization to Salix cultivation. Studies have been performed using these methods to look into nitrogen fertilizer profitability in Salix cultivation during the first rotation period. Nitrogen fertilizer profitability has been investigated involving both production functions and cost calculations, taking the year fertilization into consideration. 72 refs., 2 figs., 52 tabs

  20. Differences in absorbed doses at risk organs and target tumoral of planning(PTV) in lung treatments using two algorithms of different calculations; Diferencias en las dosis absorbidas en organos de riesgo y volumen tumoral de planificacion (PTV) en tratamientos de pulmon usando dos algoritmos de calculo diferentes: pencil beam y collpased cone

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Uruena Llinares, A.; Santos Rubio, A.; Luis Simon, F. J.; Sanchez Carmona, G.; Herrador Cordoba, M.

    2006-07-01

    The objective of this paper is to compare, in thirty treatments for lung cancer,the absorbed doses at risk organs and target volumes obtained between the two used algorithms of calculation of our treatment planning system Oncentra Masterplan, that is, Pencil Beams vs Collapsed Cone. For it we use a set of measured indicators (D1 and D99 of tumor volume, V20 of lung, homogeneity index defined as (D5-D95)/D prescribed, and others). Analysing the dta, making a descriptor analysis of the results, and applying the non parametric test of the ranks with sign of Wilcoxon we find that the use of Pencil Beam algorithm underestimates the dose in the zone of the PTV including regions of low density as well as the values of maximum dose in spine cord. So, we conclude that in those treatments in which the spine dose is near the maximum permissible limit or those in which the PTV it includes a zone with pulmonary tissue must be used the Collapse Cone algorithm systematically and in any case an analysis must become to choose between time and precision in the calculation for both algorithms. (Authors)

  1. Impact Cratering Calculations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahrens, Thomas J.

    2001-01-01

    We examined the von Mises and Mohr-Coulomb strength models with and without damage effects and developed a model for dilatancy. The models and results are given in O'Keefe et al. We found that by incorporating damage into the models that we could in a single integrated impact calculation, starting with the bolide in the atmosphere produce final crater profiles having the major features found in the field measurements. These features included a central uplift, an inner ring, circular terracing and faulting. This was accomplished with undamaged surface strengths of approximately 0.1 GPa and at depth strengths of approximately 1.0 GPa. We modeled the damage in geologic materials using a phenomenological approach, which coupled the Johnson-Cook damage model with the CTH code geologic strength model. The objective here was not to determine the distribution of fragment sizes, but rather to determine the effect of brecciated and comminuted material on the crater evolution, fault production, ejecta distribution, and final crater morphology.

  2. Parallel nearest neighbor calculations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trease, Harold

    We are just starting to parallelize the nearest neighbor portion of our free-Lagrange code. Our implementation of the nearest neighbor reconnection algorithm has not been parallelizable (i.e., we just flip one connection at a time). In this paper we consider what sort of nearest neighbor algorithms lend themselves to being parallelized. For example, the construction of the Voronoi mesh can be parallelized, but the construction of the Delaunay mesh (dual to the Voronoi mesh) cannot because of degenerate connections. We will show our most recent attempt to tessellate space with triangles or tetrahedrons with a new nearest neighbor construction algorithm called DAM (Dial-A-Mesh). This method has the characteristics of a parallel algorithm and produces a better tessellation of space than the Delaunay mesh. Parallel processing is becoming an everyday reality for us at Los Alamos. Our current production machines are Cray YMPs with 8 processors that can run independently or combined to work on one job. We are also exploring massive parallelism through the use of two 64K processor Connection Machines (CM2), where all the processors run in lock step mode. The effective application of 3-D computer models requires the use of parallel processing to achieve reasonable "turn around" times for our calculations.

  3. Risk calculations for hereditary effects of ionizing radiation in humans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vogel, F

    1992-05-01

    A prediction of the extent to which an additional dose of ionizing radiation increases the natural germ cell mutation rate, and how much such an increase will affect the health status of future human populations is part of the service that human geneticists are expected to offer to human society. However, more detailed scrutiny of the difficulties involved reveals an extremely complex set of problems. A large number of questions arises before such a prediction can be given with confidence; many such questions cannot be answered at our present state of knowledge. However, such predictions have recently been attempted. The 1988 report of the United Nations Scientific Committee for the Effects of Atomic Radiation and the fifth report of the Committee on Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiation of the US National Research Council have presented a discussion of the human genetics problems involved. Empirical data from studies on children of highly radiation-exposed parents, e.g. parents exposed to the atomic bombs of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, or parents belonging to populations living on soil with high background radiation, have been mentioned in this context. Whereas precise predictions are impossible as yet because of deficiencies in our knowledge of medical genetics at various levels, the bulk of the existing evidence points to only small effects of low or moderate radiation doses, effects that will probably be buried in the "background noise" of changing patterns of human morbidity and mortality. PMID:1587523

  4. Risk Management

    OpenAIRE

    Philippe Jorion

    2010-01-01

    Modern risk management systems were developed in the early 1990s to provide centralized risk measures at the top level of financial institutions. These are based on a century of theoretical developments in risk measures. In particular, value at risk (VAR) has become widely used as a statistical measure of market risk based on current positions. This methodology has been extended to credit risk and operational risk. This article reviews the benefits and limitations of these models. In spite of...

  5. Surface retention capacity calculation

    Science.gov (United States)

    David, Vaclav; Dostal, Tomas

    2010-05-01

    Flood wave transformation in the floodplain is the phenomenon which is researched within interdisciplinary project NIVA - Water Retention in Floodplains and Possibilities of Retention Capacity Increase. The project focuses on broad range of floodplain ecosystem services and mitigation of flooding is one of them. Despite main influence on flood wave transformation is due to flow retardation, retention in surface depressions within floodplain has been analyzed to get better overview of whole transformation process. Detail digital relief model (DRM) has been used for given purposes to be able to analyze terrain depressions volumes. The model was developed with use of stereophotogrammetric evaluation of airborne images with high resolution of 10 cm. It was essential for purposes of presented analysis not to apply pit removal routines which are often used for generation of DRM for hydrological modelling purposes. First, the methodology of analysis was prepared and tested on artificial surface. This surface was created using random raster generation, filtration and resampling with final resolution of 1000 x 1000 units and height of maximum 10 units above datum. The methodology itself is based on analysis of areas inundated by water at different elevation levels. Volume is than calculated for each depression using extraction of terrain elevations under corresponding water level. The method was then applied on the area of Lužnice River floodplain section to assess retention capacity of real floodplain. The floodplain had to be cut into sections perpendicular to main river orientation for analyses as the method was tested for square shaped area without any significant inclination. Results obtained by mentioned analysis are presented in this paper. Acknowledgement Presented research was accomplished within national project NIVA - Water Retention in Floodplains and Possibilities of Retention Capacity Increase, nr. QH82078. The project is funded by Ministry of Agriculture of

  6. The rating reliability calculator

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Solomon David J

    2004-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Rating scales form an important means of gathering evaluation data. Since important decisions are often based on these evaluations, determining the reliability of rating data can be critical. Most commonly used methods of estimating reliability require a complete set of ratings i.e. every subject being rated must be rated by each judge. Over fifty years ago Ebel described an algorithm for estimating the reliability of ratings based on incomplete data. While his article has been widely cited over the years, software based on the algorithm is not readily available. This paper describes an easy-to-use Web-based utility for estimating the reliability of ratings based on incomplete data using Ebel's algorithm. Methods The program is available public use on our server and the source code is freely available under GNU General Public License. The utility is written in PHP, a common open source imbedded scripting language. The rating data can be entered in a convenient format on the user's personal computer that the program will upload to the server for calculating the reliability and other statistics describing the ratings. Results When the program is run it displays the reliability, number of subject rated, harmonic mean number of judges rating each subject, the mean and standard deviation of the averaged ratings per subject. The program also displays the mean, standard deviation and number of ratings for each subject rated. Additionally the program will estimate the reliability of an average of a number of ratings for each subject via the Spearman-Brown prophecy formula. Conclusion This simple web-based program provides a convenient means of estimating the reliability of rating data without the need to conduct special studies in order to provide complete rating data. I would welcome other researchers revising and enhancing the program.

  7. Risk of energy production

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Every human activity involves risk of accident or disease. Generation of energy is no exception. Although such risk has been considered for conventional systems (coal, oil and nuclear), a similar analysis for the so-called alternative or non-conventional systems (solar, wind, ocean thermal and methanol) has been lacking. This paper presents an evaluation of the risk, both occupational and to the public, of non-conventional energy systems. They are considered both in absolute terms and in relation to conventional systems. The risk of most non-conventional systems, per unit of energy output, is comparable to, and in some cases much higher than, the risk from coal and oil. This conclusion holds whether we consider deaths or injuries. Nuclear power and natural gas had the lowest overall risk of the ten technologies considered. Ocean thermal energy ranked third. The surprising result is that the other seven technologies considered were found to be up to 100 times less safe. The total risk is calculated by considering six components: material acquisition and construction, emissions caused by material production, operation and maintenance, energy back-up, energy storage, and transportation. In this way the risk of widely different systems can be fairly assessed. This methodology of 'risk accounting' will not tell us which energy technology to use. However, it can be employed to inform society of the risk inherent in competing energy systems. (author)

  8. Genesis methodology quantitative risk assessment of innovative technologies in hydraulic engineering

    OpenAIRE

    Bekker Aleksandr T.; Zolotov Boris A.; Ljubimov Valeriy S.; Nosovsky Valeriy S.

    2015-01-01

    The historical development of studies to determine the risk of innovative technologies in hydraulic engineering. The proposed methodology for quantitative risk calculation can be used in hydraulic engineering, and serve as a basis for calculating the risk of industrial techniques.

  9. Risk Appetite and Endogenous Risk

    OpenAIRE

    Jean-Pierre Zigrand; Hyun Song Shin; Jon Danielsson

    2010-01-01

    Risk is endogenous. Equilibrium risk is the fixed point of the mapping that takes perceived risk to actual risk. When risk-neutral traders operate under Value-at-Risk constraints, market conditions exhibit signs of fluctuating risk appetite and amplification of shocks through feedback effects. Correlations in returns emerge even when underlying fundamental shocks are independent. We derive a closedform solution of equilibrium returns, correlation and volatility by solving the fixed point prob...

  10. Landslide risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lessing, P.; Messina, C.P.; Fonner, R.F.

    1983-01-01

    Landslide risk can be assessed by evaluating geological conditions associated with past events. A sample of 2,4 16 slides from urban areas in West Virginia, each with 12 associated geological factors, has been analyzed using SAS computer methods. In addition, selected data have been normalized to account for areal distribution of rock formations, soil series, and slope percents. Final calculations yield landslide risk assessments of 1.50=high risk. The simplicity of the method provides for a rapid, initial assessment prior to financial investment. However, it does not replace on-site investigations, nor excuse poor construction. ?? 1983 Springer-Verlag New York Inc.

  11. Calculation of multiphoton ionization processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, T. N.; Poe, R. T.

    1976-01-01

    We propose an accurate and efficient procedure in the calculation of multiphoton ionization processes. In addition to the calculational advantage, this procedure also enables us to study the relative contributions of the resonant and nonresonant intermediate states.

  12. Mapping of nitrogen risks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Blicher-Mathiesen, Gitte; Andersen, Hans Estrup; Carstensen, Jacob;

    2014-01-01

    risk mapping part of the tool, we combined a modelled root zone N leaching with a catchment-specific N reduction factor which in combination determines the N load to the marine recipient. N leaching was calculated using detailed information of agricultural management from national databases as well...... will be more effective if they are implemented in N loss hot spots or risk areas. Additionally, the highly variable N reduction in groundwater and surface waters needs to be taken into account as this strongly influences the resulting effect of mitigation measures. The objectives of this study were to develop...... and apply an N risk tool to the entire agricultural land area in Denmark. The purpose of the tool is to identify high risk areas, i.e. areas which contribute disproportionately much to diffuse N losses to the marine recipient, and to suggest cost-effective measures to reduce losses from risk areas. In the N...

  13. Risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The report is in sections, entitled: preface; summary and conclusions; introduction (historical and organizational); estimating engineering risks (techniques of risk estimation and forms of expression of risk); laboratory experiments for estimation of biological risks; estimation of risk from observations on man (travel, medical procedures; occupations; sport); the perception of risks; (as an example of attitudes towards a single hazard, studies of nuclear power are considered among other topics in this section); risk management (estimation; perception; acceptability, analysis of risk, costs and benefits; safety standards; decision-making process; possible guidelines). (U.K.)

  14. Coefficients calculations of conversion of cancer risk for occupational exposure using Monte Carlo simulations in cardiac procedures of interventionist radiology; Calculo de coeficientes de conversao de risco de cancer para exposicoes medicas e ocupacionais usando simulacoes Monte Carlo em procedimentos cardiacos de radiologia intervencionista

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Santos, William S.; Neves, Lucio P.; Perini, Ana P.; Caldas, Linda V.E., E-mail: wssantos@ipen.br, E-mail: lpneves@ipen.br, E-mail: aperini@ipen.br, E-mail: lcaldas@ipen.br [Instituto de Pesquisas Energeticas e Nucleares (IPEN/CNEN-SP), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil); Maia, Ana F., E-mail: afmaia@ufs.br [Universidade Federal de Sergipe (UFS), Sao Cristovao, SE (Brazil). Dept. de Fisica

    2014-07-01

    Cardiac procedures are among the most common procedures in interventional radiology (IR), and can lead to high medical and occupational exposures, as in most cases are procedures complex and long lasting. In this work, conversion coefficients (CC) for the risk of cancer, normalized by kerma area product (KAP) to the patient, cardiologist and nurse were calculated using Monte Carlo simulation. The patient and the cardiologist were represented by anthropomorphic simulators MESH, and the nurse by anthropomorphic phantom FASH. Simulators were incorporated into the code of Monte Carlo MCNPX. Two scenarios were created: in the first (1), lead curtain and protective equipment suspended were not included, and in the second (2) these devices were inserted. The radiographic parameters employed in Monte Carlo simulations were: tube voltage of 60 kVp and 120 kVp; filtration of the beam and 3,5 mmAl beam area of 10 x 10 cm{sup 2}. The average values of CCs to eight projections (in 10{sup -4} / Gy.cm{sup 2} were 1,2 for the patient, 2,6E-03 (scenario 1) and 4,9E-04 (scenario 2) for cardiologist and 5,2E-04 (scenario 1) and 4,0E-04 (Scenario 2) to the nurse. The results show a significant reduction in CCs for professionals, when the lead curtain and protective equipment suspended are employed. The evaluation method used in this work can provide important information on the risk of cancer patient and professional, and thus improve the protection of workers in cardiac procedures of RI.

  15. A comparison of carbon calculators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    International attention to carbon dioxide emissions is turning to an individual's contribution, or 'carbon footprint.' Calculators that estimate an individual's CO2 emissions have become more prevalent on the internet. Even with similar inputs, however, these calculators can generate varying results, often by as much as several metric tons per annum per individual activity. This paper examines the similarities and differences among ten US-based calculators. Overall, the calculators lack consistency, especially for estimates of CO2 emissions from household electricity consumption. In addition, most calculators lack information about their methods and estimates, which impedes comparison and validation. Although carbon calculators can promote public awareness of carbon emissions from individual behavior, this paper reveals the need for improved consistency and transparency in the calculators

  16. Risk perception and risk management

    OpenAIRE

    Renn, Ortwin

    1989-01-01

    While experts confine the term risk to a combination of magnitude and probability of adverse effects, laypersons associate with risk a variety of criteria, such as voluntariness, possibility of personal control, familiarity, and others. The better our knowledge about the risk perception processes, the more we are able to improve our risk management skills. Responsive and rational approaches to risk management should include the results of risk perception studies in two ways: First, management...

  17. Fetal Risks, Relative Risks, and Relatives' Risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Minkoff, Howard; Marshall, Mary Faith

    2016-01-01

    Several factors related to fetal risk render it more or less acceptable in justifying constraints on the behavior of pregnant women. Risk is an unavoidable part of pregnancy and childbirth, one that women must balance against other vital personal and family interests. Two particular issues relate to the fairness of claims that pregnant women are never entitled to put their fetuses at risk: relative risks and relatives' risks. The former have been used-often spuriously-to advance arguments against activities, such as home birth, that may incur risk; the latter implicate the nature of relationships in determining the acceptability of coercing or precluding activities. Motivated reasoning by clinicians and judges leads to inaccurate risk assessments, and judgments based on false claims to objectivity. Such judgments undermine the moral and legal standing of pregnant women and do not advance the interests of fetuses, pregnant women, families, or states. PMID:26832079

  18. Modern biogeochemistry environmental risk assessment

    CERN Document Server

    Bashkin, Vladimir N

    2006-01-01

    Most books deal mainly with various technical aspects of ERA description and calculationsAims at generalizing the modern ideas of both biogeochemical and environmental risk assessment during recent yearsAims at supplementing the existing books by providing a modern understanding of mechanisms that are responsible for the ecological risk for human beings and ecosystem

  19. Global nuclear-structure calculations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moeller, P.; Nix, J.R.

    1990-04-20

    The revival of interest in nuclear ground-state octupole deformations that occurred in the 1980's was stimulated by observations in 1980 of particularly large deviations between calculated and experimental masses in the Ra region, in a global calculation of nuclear ground-state masses. By minimizing the total potential energy with respect to octupole shape degrees of freedom in addition to {epsilon}{sub 2} and {epsilon}{sub 4} used originally, a vastly improved agreement between calculated and experimental masses was obtained. To study the global behavior and interrelationships between other nuclear properties, we calculate nuclear ground-state masses, spins, pairing gaps and {Beta}-decay and half-lives and compare the results to experimental qualities. The calculations are based on the macroscopic-microscopic approach, with the microscopic contributions calculated in a folded-Yukawa single-particle potential.

  20. Global nuclear-structure calculations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The revival of interest in nuclear ground-state octupole deformations that occurred in the 1980's was stimulated by observations in 1980 of particularly large deviations between calculated and experimental masses in the Ra region, in a global calculation of nuclear ground-state masses. By minimizing the total potential energy with respect to octupole shape degrees of freedom in addition to ε2 and ε4 used originally, a vastly improved agreement between calculated and experimental masses was obtained. To study the global behavior and interrelationships between other nuclear properties, we calculate nuclear ground-state masses, spins, pairing gaps and Β-decay and half-lives and compare the results to experimental qualities. The calculations are based on the macroscopic-microscopic approach, with the microscopic contributions calculated in a folded-Yukawa single-particle potential

  1. CALCULATION OF LASER CUTTING COSTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bogdan Nedic

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents description methods of metal cutting and calculation of treatment costs based on model that is developed on Faculty of mechanical engineering in Kragujevac. Based on systematization and analysis of large number of calculation models of cutting with unconventional methods, mathematical model is derived, which is used for creating a software for calculation costs of metal cutting. Software solution enables resolving the problem of calculating the cost of laser cutting, comparison' of costs made by other unconventional methods and provides documentation that consists of reports on estimated costs.

  2. Risks from nuclear waste

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Liljenzin, J.O.; Rydberg, J. [Radiochemistry Consultant Group, Vaestra Froelunda (Sweden)

    1996-11-01

    The first part of this review discusses the importance of risk. If there is any relation between the emotional and rational risk perceptions (for example, it is believed that increased knowledge will decrease emotions), it will be a desirable goal for society, and the nuclear industry in particular, to improve the understanding by the laymen of the rational risks from nuclear energy. This review surveys various paths to a more common comprehension - perhaps a consensus - of the nuclear waste risks. The second part discusses radioactivity as a risk factor and concludes that it has no relation in itself to risk, but must be connected to exposure leading to a dose risk, i.e. a health detriment, which is commonly expressed in terms of cancer induction rate. Dose-effect relations are discussed in light of recent scientific debate. The third part of the report describes a number of hazard indexes for nuclear waste found in the literature and distinguishes between absolute and relative risk scales. The absolute risks as well as the relative risks have changed over time due to changes in radiological and metabolic data and by changes in the mode of calculation. To judge from the literature, the risk discussion is huge, even when it is limited to nuclear waste. It would be very difficult to make a comprehensive review and extract the essentials from that. Therefore, we have chosen to select some publications, out of the over 100, which we summarize rather comprehensively; in some cases we also include our remarks. 110 refs, 22 figs.

  3. Risks from nuclear waste

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The first part of this review discusses the importance of risk. If there is any relation between the emotional and rational risk perceptions (for example, it is believed that increased knowledge will decrease emotions), it will be a desirable goal for society, and the nuclear industry in particular, to improve the understanding by the laymen of the rational risks from nuclear energy. This review surveys various paths to a more common comprehension - perhaps a consensus - of the nuclear waste risks. The second part discusses radioactivity as a risk factor and concludes that it has no relation in itself to risk, but must be connected to exposure leading to a dose risk, i.e. a health detriment, which is commonly expressed in terms of cancer induction rate. Dose-effect relations are discussed in light of recent scientific debate. The third part of the report describes a number of hazard indexes for nuclear waste found in the literature and distinguishes between absolute and relative risk scales. The absolute risks as well as the relative risks have changed over time due to changes in radiological and metabolic data and by changes in the mode of calculation. To judge from the literature, the risk discussion is huge, even when it is limited to nuclear waste. It would be very difficult to make a comprehensive review and extract the essentials from that. Therefore, we have chosen to select some publications, out of the over 100, which we summarize rather comprehensively; in some cases we also include our remarks. 110 refs, 22 figs

  4. Validating the calculated reliability and availability in Dutch storm surge barriers (and other infrastructural works)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kleijn van Willigen, G.K.; Meerveld, H. van

    2016-01-01

    The reliability and availability of the Dutch storm surge barriers are calculated by probabilistic risk assessment and various underlying risk analysis methods. These calculations, however, focus on the numerical probability of the storm surge barrier functioning adequately, and the implementation o

  5. Predicting Coronary Heart Disease and Stroke: The FINRISK Calculator.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vartiainen, Erkki; Laatikainen, Tiina; Peltonen, Markku; Puska, Pekka

    2016-06-01

    The FINRISK risk calculator predicts 10-year risk for coronary heart disease, stroke incidence, and their combination. The model is based on 10-year cohort follow-up from 3 different cohorts in 1982, 1987, and 1992 from a random population sample in 3 areas in Finland. Coronary heart disease, stroke, and their combination are predicted by smoking, systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, diabetes, and family history. The Internet-based calculator is commonly used in Finland in health services to assess the need for hypertension and hypercholesterolemia treatment and is used also in patients' counseling. PMID:27242089

  6. Statistical Issues for Calculating Reentry Hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matney, Mark; Bacon, John

    2016-01-01

    A number of statistical tools have been developed over the years for assessing the risk of reentering object to human populations. These tools make use of the characteristics (e.g., mass, shape, size) of debris that are predicted by aerothermal models to survive reentry. This information, combined with information on the expected ground path of the reentry, is used to compute the probability that one or more of the surviving debris might hit a person on the ground and cause one or more casualties. The statistical portion of this analysis relies on a number of assumptions about how the debris footprint and the human population are distributed in latitude and longitude, and how to use that information to arrive at realistic risk numbers. This inevitably involves assumptions that simplify the problem and make it tractable, but it is often difficult to test the accuracy and applicability of these assumptions. This paper builds on previous IAASS work to re-examine many of these theoretical assumptions, including the mathematical basis for the hazard calculations, and outlining the conditions under which the simplifying assumptions hold. This study also employs empirical and theoretical information to test these assumptions, and makes recommendations how to improve the accuracy of these calculations in the future.

  7. Global Asteroid Risk Analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Rumpf, Clemens

    2014-01-01

    Potentially impacting asteroids were analysed for their impact risk on the Earth. To this end, the Asteroid Risk Mitigation Optimization and Research (ARMOR) tool is currently being developed. The tool's modules are described and their validation is documented. Based on the asteroid ephemeris, the tool calculates the impact location probability distribution on the surface of the Earth (in the literature, occasionally referred to as risk corridor). NASA's Near Earth Object (NEO) risk list served as the source for asteroid ephemerides. The Line of Variation (LOV) method was employed to find virtual impactors. While offering a simple and fast way of identifying virtual impactors, the method provides a low impactor identification rate. This is because the search space is tightly constricted to the LOV and thus excludes virtual impactors located elsewhere in the asteroid position uncertainty region. The method's performance was evaluated and suggestions for improvements are provided. Application of the tool showed...

  8. Procedures for Calculating Residential Dehumidification Loads

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Winkler, Jon [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Booten, Chuck [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2016-06-01

    Residential building codes and voluntary labeling programs are continually increasing the energy efficiency requirements of residential buildings. Improving a building's thermal enclosure and installing energy-efficient appliances and lighting can result in significant reductions in sensible cooling loads leading to smaller air conditioners and shorter cooling seasons. However due to fresh air ventilation requirements and internal gains, latent cooling loads are not reduced by the same proportion. Thus, it's becoming more challenging for conventional cooling equipment to control indoor humidity at part-load cooling conditions and using conventional cooling equipment in a non-conventional building poses the potential risk of high indoor humidity. The objective of this project was to investigate the impact the chosen design condition has on the calculated part-load cooling moisture load, and compare calculated moisture loads and the required dehumidification capacity to whole-building simulations. Procedures for sizing whole-house supplemental dehumidification equipment have yet to be formalized; however minor modifications to current Air-Conditioner Contractors of America (ACCA) Manual J load calculation procedures are appropriate for calculating residential part-load cooling moisture loads. Though ASHRAE 1% DP design conditions are commonly used to determine the dehumidification requirements for commercial buildings, an appropriate DP design condition for residential buildings has not been investigated. Two methods for sizing supplemental dehumidification equipment were developed and tested. The first method closely followed Manual J cooling load calculations; whereas the second method made more conservative assumptions impacting both sensible and latent loads.

  9. Calculating Variable Annuity Liability 'Greeks' Using Monte Carlo Simulation

    OpenAIRE

    Cathcart, Mark J.; Steven Morrison; McNeil, Alexander J.

    2011-01-01

    Hedging methods to mitigate the exposure of variable annuity products to market risks require the calculation of market risk sensitivities (or "Greeks"). The complex, path-dependent nature of these products means these sensitivities typically must be estimated by Monte Carlo simulation. Standard market practice is to measure such sensitivities using a "bump and revalue" method. As well as requiring multiple valuations, such approaches can be unreliable for higher order Greeks, e.g., gamma. In...

  10. Calculation of Spectra of Solids:

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lindgård, Per-Anker

    1975-01-01

    The Gilat-Raubenheimer method simplified to tetrahedron division is used to calculate the real and imaginary part of the dynamical response function for electrons. A frequency expansion for the real part is discussed. The Lindhard function is calculated as a test for numerical accuracy. The condu...

  11. Calculation of two Belyi pairs

    OpenAIRE

    Dremov, V. A.

    2008-01-01

    We calculate two Belyi pairs using the properties of Mulase-Penkava differential. Details are provided including accurate construction of coordinates, variables and equations. The calculation is a part of the work which results in a catalogue arXiv:0710.2658

  12. Deconstructing Calculation Methods: Part 1

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, Ian

    2007-01-01

    The aim of this series of four articles is to look critically, and in some detail, at the primary strategy approach to written calculation, as set out on pages 5 to 16 of the "Guidance paper" "Calculation." The underlying principle of that approach is that children should use mental methods whenever they are appropriate, whereas for calculations…

  13. Calculations of effective atomic number

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kaliman, Z. [Department of Physics, Faculty of Arts and Sciences, Omladinska 14, Rijeka (Croatia); Orlic, N. [Department of Physics, Faculty of Arts and Sciences, Omladinska 14, Rijeka (Croatia)], E-mail: norlic@ffri.hr; Jelovica, I. [Department of Physics, Faculty of Arts and Sciences, Omladinska 14, Rijeka (Croatia)

    2007-09-21

    We present and discuss effective atomic number (Z{sub eff}) obtained by different methods of calculations. There is no unique relation between the computed values. This observation led us to the conclusion that any Z{sub eff} is valid only for given process. We illustrate calculations for different subshells of atom Z=72 and for M3 subshell of several other atoms.

  14. Calculator. Owning a Small Business.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parma City School District, OH.

    Seven activities are presented in this student workbook designed for an exploration of small business ownership and the use of the calculator in this career. Included are simulated situations in which students must use a calculator to compute property taxes; estimate payroll taxes and franchise taxes; compute pricing, approximate salaries,…

  15. Shielding calculational system for plutonium

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A computer calculational system has been developed and assembled specifically for calculating dose rates in AEC plutonium fabrication facilities. The system consists of two computer codes and all nuclear data necessary for calculation of neutron and gamma dose rates from plutonium. The codes include the multigroup version of the Battelle Monte Carlo code for solution of general neutron and gamma shielding problems and the PUSHLD code for solution of shielding problems where low energy gamma and x-rays are important. The nuclear data consists of built in neutron and gamma yields and spectra for various plutonium compounds, an automatic calculation of age effects and all cross-sections commonly used. Experimental correlations have been performed to verify portions of the calculational system. (23 tables, 7 figs, 16 refs) (U.S.)

  16. Risk Management

    OpenAIRE

    Černák, Peter

    2009-01-01

    The Master's Thesis deals with the topic of risk management in a non-financial company. The goal of this Thesis is to create a framework for review of risk management process and to practically apply it in a case study. Objectives of the theoretical parts are: stating the reasons for risk management in non-financial companies, addressing the main parts of risk management and providing guidance for review of risk management process. A special attention is paid to financial risks. The practical...

  17. D & D screening risk evaluation guidance

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Robers, S.K.; Golden, K.M.; Wollert, D.A.

    1995-09-01

    The Screening Risk Evaluation (SRE) guidance document is a set of guidelines provided for the uniform implementation of SREs performed on decontamination and decommissioning (D&D) facilities. Although this method has been developed for D&D facilities, it can be used for transition (EM-60) facilities as well. The SRE guidance produces screening risk scores reflecting levels of risk through the use of risk ranking indices. Five types of possible risk are calculated from the SRE: current releases, worker exposures, future releases, physical hazards, and criticality. The Current Release Index (CRI) calculates the current risk to human health and the environment, exterior to the building, from ongoing or probable releases within a one-year time period. The Worker Exposure Index (WEI) calculates the current risk to workers, occupants and visitors inside contaminated D&D facilities due to contaminant exposure. The Future Release Index (FRI) calculates the hypothetical risk of future releases of contaminants, after one year, to human health and the environment. The Physical Hazards Index (PHI) calculates the risks to human health due to factors other than that of contaminants. Criticality is approached as a modifying factor to the entire SRE, due to the fact that criticality issues are strictly regulated under DOE. Screening risk results will be tabulated in matrix form, and Total Risk will be calculated (weighted equation) to produce a score on which to base early action recommendations. Other recommendations from the screening risk scores will be made based either on individual index scores or from reweighted Total Risk calculations. All recommendations based on the SRE will be made based on a combination of screening risk scores, decision drivers, and other considerations, as determined on a project-by-project basis.

  18. D ampersand D screening risk evaluation guidance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Screening Risk Evaluation (SRE) guidance document is a set of guidelines provided for the uniform implementation of SREs performed on decontamination and decommissioning (D ampersand D) facilities. Although this method has been developed for D ampersand D facilities, it can be used for transition (EM-60) facilities as well. The SRE guidance produces screening risk scores reflecting levels of risk through the use of risk ranking indices. Five types of possible risk are calculated from the SRE: current releases, worker exposures, future releases, physical hazards, and criticality. The Current Release Index (CRI) calculates the current risk to human health and the environment, exterior to the building, from ongoing or probable releases within a one-year time period. The Worker Exposure Index (WEI) calculates the current risk to workers, occupants and visitors inside contaminated D ampersand D facilities due to contaminant exposure. The Future Release Index (FRI) calculates the hypothetical risk of future releases of contaminants, after one year, to human health and the environment. The Physical Hazards Index (PHI) calculates the risks to human health due to factors other than that of contaminants. Criticality is approached as a modifying factor to the entire SRE, due to the fact that criticality issues are strictly regulated under DOE. Screening risk results will be tabulated in matrix form, and Total Risk will be calculated (weighted equation) to produce a score on which to base early action recommendations. Other recommendations from the screening risk scores will be made based either on individual index scores or from reweighted Total Risk calculations. All recommendations based on the SRE will be made based on a combination of screening risk scores, decision drivers, and other considerations, as determined on a project-by-project basis

  19. Closure and Sealing Design Calculation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The purpose of the ''Closure and Sealing Design Calculation'' is to illustrate closure and sealing methods for sealing shafts, ramps, and identify boreholes that require sealing in order to limit the potential of water infiltration. In addition, this calculation will provide a description of the magma that can reduce the consequences of an igneous event intersecting the repository. This calculation will also include a listing of the project requirements related to closure and sealing. The scope of this calculation is to: summarize applicable project requirements and codes relating to backfilling nonemplacement openings, removal of uncommitted materials from the subsurface, installation of drip shields, and erecting monuments; compile an inventory of boreholes that are found in the area of the subsurface repository; describe the magma bulkhead feature and location; and include figures for the proposed shaft and ramp seals. The objective of this calculation is to: categorize the boreholes for sealing by depth and proximity to the subsurface repository; develop drawing figures which show the location and geometry for the magma bulkhead; include the shaft seal figures and a proposed construction sequence; and include the ramp seal figure and a proposed construction sequence. The intent of this closure and sealing calculation is to support the License Application by providing a description of the closure and sealing methods for the Safety Analysis Report. The closure and sealing calculation will also provide input for Post Closure Activities by describing the location of the magma bulkhead. This calculation is limited to describing the final configuration of the sealing and backfill systems for the underground area. The methods and procedures used to place the backfill and remove uncommitted materials (such as concrete) from the repository and detailed design of the magma bulkhead will be the subject of separate analyses or calculations. Post-closure monitoring will not

  20. Closure and Sealing Design Calculation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    T. Lahnalampi; J. Case

    2005-08-26

    The purpose of the ''Closure and Sealing Design Calculation'' is to illustrate closure and sealing methods for sealing shafts, ramps, and identify boreholes that require sealing in order to limit the potential of water infiltration. In addition, this calculation will provide a description of the magma that can reduce the consequences of an igneous event intersecting the repository. This calculation will also include a listing of the project requirements related to closure and sealing. The scope of this calculation is to: summarize applicable project requirements and codes relating to backfilling nonemplacement openings, removal of uncommitted materials from the subsurface, installation of drip shields, and erecting monuments; compile an inventory of boreholes that are found in the area of the subsurface repository; describe the magma bulkhead feature and location; and include figures for the proposed shaft and ramp seals. The objective of this calculation is to: categorize the boreholes for sealing by depth and proximity to the subsurface repository; develop drawing figures which show the location and geometry for the magma bulkhead; include the shaft seal figures and a proposed construction sequence; and include the ramp seal figure and a proposed construction sequence. The intent of this closure and sealing calculation is to support the License Application by providing a description of the closure and sealing methods for the Safety Analysis Report. The closure and sealing calculation will also provide input for Post Closure Activities by describing the location of the magma bulkhead. This calculation is limited to describing the final configuration of the sealing and backfill systems for the underground area. The methods and procedures used to place the backfill and remove uncommitted materials (such as concrete) from the repository and detailed design of the magma bulkhead will be the subject of separate analyses or calculations. Post

  1. Risk Analysis in Road Tunnels – Most Important Risk Indicators

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Berchtold, Florian; Knaust, Christian; Thöns, Sebastian;

    2016-01-01

    the effects and highlights the most important risk indicators with the aim to support further developments in risk analysis. Therefore, a system model of a road tunnel was developed to determine the risk measures. The system model can be divided into three parts: the fire part connected to the fire model Fire...... Dynamics Simulator (FDS); the evacuation part connected to the evacuation model FDS+Evac; and the frequency part connected to a model to calculate the frequency of fires. This study shows that the parts of the system model (and their most important risk indicators) affect the risk measures in the following......, further research can focus on these most important risk indicators with the aim to optimise risk analysis....

  2. Monte Carlo method application to shielding calculations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    CANDU spent fuel discharged from the reactor core contains Pu, so it must be stressed in two directions: tracing for the fuel reactivity in order to prevent critical mass formation and personnel protection during the spent fuel manipulation. The basic tasks accomplished by the shielding calculations in a nuclear safety analysis consist in dose rates calculations in order to prevent any risks both for personnel protection and impact on the environment during the spent fuel manipulation, transport and storage. To perform photon dose rates calculations the Monte Carlo MORSE-SGC code incorporated in SAS4 sequence from SCALE system was used. The paper objective was to obtain the photon dose rates to the spent fuel transport cask wall, both in radial and axial directions. As source of radiation one spent CANDU fuel bundle was used. All the geometrical and material data related to the transport cask were considered according to the shipping cask type B model, whose prototype has been realized and tested in the Institute for Nuclear Research Pitesti. (authors)

  3. Surrounding Risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mogens Steffensen

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Research in insurance and finance was always intersecting although they were originally and generally viewed as separate disciplines. Insurance is about transferring risks between parties such that the burdens of risks are borne by those who can. This makes insurance transactions a beneficial activity for the society. It calls on detection, modelling, valuation, and controlling of risks. One of the main sources of control is diversification of risks and in that respect it becomes an issue in itself to clarify diversifiability of risks. However, many diversifiable risks are not, by nature or by contract design, separable from non-diversifiable risks that are, on the other hand, sometimes traded in financial markets and sometimes not. A key observation is that the economic risk came before the insurance contract: Mother earth destroys and kills incidentally and mercilessly, but the uncertainty of economic consequences can be more or less cleverly distributed by the introduction of an insurance market.

  4. Practical astronomy with your calculator

    CERN Document Server

    Duffett-Smith, Peter

    1989-01-01

    Practical Astronomy with your Calculator, first published in 1979, has enjoyed immense success. The author's clear and easy to follow routines enable you to solve a variety of practical and recreational problems in astronomy using a scientific calculator. Mathematical complexity is kept firmly in the background, leaving just the elements necessary for swiftly making calculations. The major topics are: time, coordinate systems, the Sun, the planetary system, binary stars, the Moon, and eclipses. In the third edition there are entirely new sections on generalised coordinate transformations, nutr

  5. Demand of Insurance under the Cost-of-Capital Premium Calculation Principle

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael Merz

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available We study the optimal insurance design problem. This is a risk sharing problem between an insured and an insurer. The main novelty in this paper is that we study this optimization problem under a risk-adjusted premium calculation principle for the insurance cover. This risk-adjusted premium calculation principle uses the cost-of-capital approach as it is suggested (and used by the regulator and the insurance industry.

  6. Prenatal radiation exposure. Dose calculation; Praenatale Strahlenexposition. Dosisermittlung

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Scharwaechter, C.; Schwartz, C.A.; Haage, P. [University Hospital Witten/Herdecke, Wuppertal (Germany). Dept. of Diagnostic and Interventional Radiology; Roeser, A. [University Hospital Witten/Herdecke, Wuppertal (Germany). Dept. of Radiotherapy and Radio-Oncology

    2015-05-15

    The unborn child requires special protection. In this context, the indication for an X-ray examination is to be checked critically. If thereupon radiation of the lower abdomen including the uterus cannot be avoided, the examination should be postponed until the end of pregnancy or alternative examination techniques should be considered. Under certain circumstances, either accidental or in unavoidable cases after a thorough risk assessment, radiation exposure of the unborn may take place. In some of these cases an expert radiation hygiene consultation may be required. This consultation should comprise the expected risks for the unborn while not perturbing the mother or the involved medical staff. For the risk assessment in case of an in-utero X-ray exposition deterministic damages with a defined threshold dose are distinguished from stochastic damages without a definable threshold dose. The occurrence of deterministic damages depends on the dose and the developmental stage of the unborn at the time of radiation. To calculate the risks of an in-utero radiation exposure a three-stage concept is commonly applied. Depending on the amount of radiation, the radiation dose is either estimated, roughly calculated using standard tables or, in critical cases, accurately calculated based on the individual event. The complexity of the calculation thereby increases from stage to stage. An estimation based on stage one is easily feasible whereas calculations based on stages two and especially three are more complex and often necessitate execution by specialists. This article demonstrates in detail the risks for the unborn child pertaining to its developmental phase and explains the three-stage concept as an evaluation scheme. It should be noted, that all risk estimations are subject to considerable uncertainties.

  7. Prédétermination et calcul de risque dans le cas des avalanches : avantages et limites des méthodes utilisées en ingénierie et perspectives d'avenir Avalanche hazard and risk evaluation: advantages and limits of standard engineering methods and a look forward

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicolas Eckert, Éric Parent, Mohamed Naaim et Didier Richard

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Si l'on connaît assez bien les principales zones où se produisent les avalanches, il est plus difficile de prévoir les caractéristiques précises de ces événements extrêmes. Après un tour d'horizon des méthodes traditionnelles utilisées en ingénierie paravalanche pour prédéterminer les événements extrêmes et calculer les risques, les auteurs de l'article nous présentent ici des nouvelles méthodes combinant statistiques et modèles dynamiques d’écoulement, qui permettent d’employer de manière plus rigoureuse les notions de période de retour et de risque.For natural hazard management in mountainous regions, design values and return periods are often used in a questionable manner. This article aims at reviewing the existing methods for predetermination and risk computations in the case of snow avalanches. After remembering the classical engineering methods, the recently developed statistical-dynamical approaches are introduced. They allow rigorously defining the return period as a one-to-one mapping of the runout distance and evaluating all reference scenarios corresponding to the chosen design values. Finally, as soon as hazard consequences are quantified as a function of its magnitude, a decisional approach can be used for hazard zoning and the design of defence structures. The proposed framework is illustrated with a case study from the French avalanche database.

  8. Risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The radiation hormesis hypothesis is discussed claiming that low dose ionizing radiation shows positive biological effects. The hypothesis could not be demonstrably proved. In the last decade, new disciplines have been developing, such as risk assessment and risk management that, on the basis of proven results and the consideration of all circumstances quantitatively assess and test possible risks. (M.D.). 1 fig

  9. COMPARISON OF VALUE AT RISK APPROACHES ON A STOCK PORTFOLIO

    OpenAIRE

    Šime Čorkalo

    2011-01-01

    Value at risk is risk management tool for measuring and controlling market risks. Through this paper reader will get to know what value at risk is, how it can be calculated, what are the main characteristics, advantages and disadvantages of value at risk. Author compares the main approaches of calculating VaR and implements Variance-Covariance, Historical and Bootstrapping approach on stock portfolio. Finally results of empirical part are compared and presented using histogram.

  10. Relativistic calculations of atomic structure

    OpenAIRE

    Fricke, Burkhard

    1984-01-01

    A review of relativistic atomic structure calculations is given with a emphasis on the Multiconfigurational-Dirac-Fock method. Its problems and deficiencies are discussed together with the contributions which go beyond the Dirac-Fock procedure.

  11. Calculations of turbulent separated flows

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, J.; Shih, T. H.

    1993-01-01

    A numerical study of incompressible turbulent separated flows is carried out by using two-equation turbulence models of the K-epsilon type. On the basis of realizability analysis, a new formulation of the eddy-viscosity is proposed which ensures the positiveness of turbulent normal stresses - a realizability condition that most existing two-equation turbulence models are unable to satisfy. The present model is applied to calculate two backward-facing step flows. Calculations with the standard K-epsilon model and a recently developed RNG-based K-epsilon model are also made for comparison. The calculations are performed with a finite-volume method. A second-order accurate differencing scheme and sufficiently fine grids are used to ensure the numerical accuracy of solutions. The calculated results are compared with the experimental data for both mean and turbulent quantities. The comparison shows that the present model performs quite well for separated flows.

  12. AN ANALYTICAL SOLUTION FOR CALCULATING THE INITIATION OF SEDIMENT MOTION

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Thomas LUCKNER; Ulrich ZANKE

    2007-01-01

    This paper presents an analytical solution for calculating the initiation of sediment motion and the risk of river bed movement. It thus deals with a fundamental problem in sediment transport, for which no complete analytical solution has yet been found. The analytical solution presented here is based on forces acting on a single grain in state of initiation of sediment motion. The previous procedures for calculating the initiation of sediment motion are complemented by an innovative combination of optical surface measurement technology for determining geometrical parameters and their statistical derivation as well as a novel approach for determining the turbulence effects of velocity fluctuations. This two aspects and the comparison of the solution functions presented here with the well known data and functions of different authors mainly differ the presented solution model for calculating the initiation of sediment motion from previous approaches. The defined values of required geometrical parameters are based on hydraulically laboratory tests with spheres. With this limitations the derivated solution functions permit the calculation of the effective critical transport parameters of a single grain, the calculation of averaged critical parameters for describing the state of initiation of sediment motion on the river bed, the calculation of the probability density of the effective critical velocity as well as the calculation of the risk of river bed movement. The main advantage of the presented model is the closed analytical solution from the equilibrium of forces on a single grain to the solution functions describing the initiation of sediment motion.

  13. Transfer Area Mechanical Handling Calculation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    B. Dianda

    2004-06-23

    This calculation is intended to support the License Application (LA) submittal of December 2004, in accordance with the directive given by DOE correspondence received on the 27th of January 2004 entitled: ''Authorization for Bechtel SAX Company L.L. C. to Include a Bare Fuel Handling Facility and Increased Aging Capacity in the License Application, Contract Number DE-AC28-01R W12101'' (Arthur, W.J., I11 2004). This correspondence was appended by further Correspondence received on the 19th of February 2004 entitled: ''Technical Direction to Bechtel SAIC Company L.L. C. for Surface Facility Improvements, Contract Number DE-AC28-OIRW12101; TDL No. 04-024'' (BSC 2004a). These documents give the authorization for a Fuel Handling Facility to be included in the baseline. The purpose of this calculation is to establish preliminary bounding equipment envelopes and weights for the Fuel Handling Facility (FHF) transfer areas equipment. This calculation provides preliminary information only to support development of facility layouts and preliminary load calculations. The limitations of this preliminary calculation lie within the assumptions of section 5 , as this calculation is part of an evolutionary design process. It is intended that this calculation is superseded as the design advances to reflect information necessary to support License Application. The design choices outlined within this calculation represent a demonstration of feasibility and may or may not be included in the completed design. This calculation provides preliminary weight, dimensional envelope, and equipment position in building for the purposes of defining interface variables. This calculation identifies and sizes major equipment and assemblies that dictate overall equipment dimensions and facility interfaces. Sizing of components is based on the selection of commercially available products, where applicable. This is not a specific recommendation for the future use

  14. Quantitative calculation of dislocation mobility

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Swaminarayan, S.; Preston, D.L.

    1999-07-01

    The authors present a new method to calculate the response of dislocations to applied stress. This new method, called the dislocation treadmill, can be used to study the effect of vacancies, interstitials, stresses, strain rate, temperature, etc., on the steady state velocity of the dislocation. The authors demonstrate the use of the method by calculating the response of a dislocation to a constant applied shear stress.

  15. The calculation of pressure vessels

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The calculation guidelines of the Arbeitsgemeinschaft Druckbehaelter (task group for pressure vessels) have been revised with the following objective: conversion to international standards (SI), adaption to the latest state of guidelines for production and testing, revision of the contents of individual regulations. Another target of the cooperating interest groups of producers, operators, and supervisory bodies was a harmonization of the approaches for calculation with other German guidelines, in particular the Technische Regeln fuer Dampfkessel (technical regulations for steam boilers). (orig./RW)

  16. Flexible mental calculation and "Zahlenblickschulung"

    OpenAIRE

    Rechtsteiner-Merz, Charlotte; Rathgeb-Schnierer, Elisabeth

    2015-01-01

    International audience; The study focuses on the development of mental calculation of elementary students who show difficulties in learning math. In total, 20 children in 8 classes were observed during their first year at school. The math education of five classes was based on a special approach called “Zahlenblickschulung”, whereas three classes experienced more regular lessons. The collected data allowed a development of a typology of flexibility in mental calculation. Additionally, it was ...

  17. Multifragmentation calculated with relativistic forces

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A saturating hamiltonian is presented in a relativistically covariant formalism. The interaction is described by scalar and vector mesons, with coupling strengths adjusted to the nuclear matter. No explicit density dependence is assumed. The hamiltonian is applied in a QMD calculation to determine the fragment distribution in O + Br collision at different energies (50 - 200 MeV/u) to test the applicability of the model at low energies. The results are compared with experiment and with previous non-relativistic calculations. (orig.)

  18. Hydraulic calculation of pressure pipes

    OpenAIRE

    Mikhalev, M. A.

    2012-01-01

    In the present time there is only one classic method for hydraulic calculation of pressure pipes. In it fluid flow velocity and pipeline diameter are considered as given values.The paper proposes a procedure for physical modeling and hydraulic calculation of pressure pipes, based on the theory of similarity. Methods for obtaining similarity criteria from combinations of similarity numbers were discussed. Similarity numbers and criteria and criteria equations were defined.

  19. Risk reality vs risk perception

    OpenAIRE

    Micic, T.

    2016-01-01

    Here we explore new tools to improve risk communication within built infrastructure procurement by considering quantitative engineering risk and perceived risk associated with groups of stakeholders. In particular, the perceived risk is assumed to be dependent on motivational values that individuals identify with. The motivational values are evaluated using 40 questions Swartz Portrait Value Questionnaires. Ten hazards are considered in a survey to identify two dimensions, fear and unknown fo...

  20. Use of risk aversion in risk acceptance criteria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Quantitative risk acceptance criteria for technological systems must be both justifiable, based upon societal values and objectives, and workable in the sense that compliance is possible and can be demonstrated in a straightforward manner. Societal values have frequently been assessed using recorded accident statistics on a wide range of human activities assuming that the statistics in some way reflect societal preferences, or by psychometric surveys concerning perceptions and evaluations of risk. Both methods indicate a societal aversion to risk e.g., many small accidents killing a total of 100 people are preferred over one large accident in which 100 lives are lost. Some of the implications of incorporating risk aversion in acceptance criteria are discussed. Calculated risks of various technological systems are converted to expected social costs using various risk aversion factors. The uncertainties in these assessments are also discussed

  1. Calculation method of agricultural drought loss risk curve under the actual drought resistance ability condition in Southern China%实际抗旱能力下的南方农业旱灾损失风险曲线计算方法

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    孙可可; 陈进; 金菊良; 郦建强; 许继军; 费振宇

    2014-01-01

    Based on the relation curve of seasonal drought frequency and drought loss proposed in previous study under four different irrigation levels, the quantitative relationship between seasonal drought frequency and drought loss has been calculated to construct the drought loss risk curve, considering the changes of actual drought resistance ability with drought frequency. First, the ratio of water supply to meet the water demand in periods of drought was defined as drought resistance index. The relation curve between drought resistance index and inflow frequency, and the relation curve between drought frequency and guaranteed rate of drought intensity were established respectively, and then using guaranteed rate of drought intensity to express inflow frequency, the one-to-one relationship between drought resistance index and drought fre-quency of each drought process was obtained. Then,drought frequency can be calculated using Copula func-tion,the crop yield was simulated and yield loss rate under drought was computed using the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate Model, and the relations were set up among drought frequency, irrigation levels and drought loss rate. At last, the drought resistance index can express irrigation levels, the relation curve can be estimated between drought frequency and drought loss rate under the actual drought resistance abili-ty conditions, which can be regarded as agricultural drought loss risk curve. By applying the above calcula-tion method in Zhuzhou City of Hunan Province, the results show that the relation curves of drought fre-quency and drought loss rate of early rice during summer from May to July under the actual drought resis-tance ability conditions basically complies with semi-logarithmic function in line with trends in the relation-ship. In comparing with the history crop yield losses of drought, when 2-year, 5-year and 10-year return droughts take place, the relative errors of the actual survey results and theoretical

  2. Insertion device calculations with mathematica

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carr, R. [Stanford Synchrotron Radiation Lab., CA (United States); Lidia, S. [Univ. of California, Davis, CA (United States)

    1995-02-01

    The design of accelerator insertion devices such as wigglers and undulators has usually been aided by numerical modeling on digital computers, using code in high level languages like Fortran. In the present era, there are higher level programming environments like IDL{reg_sign}, MatLab{reg_sign}, and Mathematica{reg_sign} in which these calculations may be performed by writing much less code, and in which standard mathematical techniques are very easily used. The authors present a suite of standard insertion device modeling routines in Mathematica to illustrate the new techniques. These routines include a simple way to generate magnetic fields using blocks of CSEM materials, trajectory solutions from the Lorentz force equations for given magnetic fields, Bessel function calculations of radiation for wigglers and undulators and general radiation calculations for undulators.

  3. Verification of Internal Dose Calculations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aissi, Abdelmadjid

    The MIRD internal dose calculations have been in use for more than 15 years, but their accuracy has always been questionable. There have been attempts to verify these calculations; however, these attempts had various shortcomings which kept the question of verification of the MIRD data still unanswered. The purpose of this research was to develop techniques and methods to verify the MIRD calculations in a more systematic and scientific manner. The research consisted of improving a volumetric dosimeter, developing molding techniques, and adapting the Monte Carlo computer code ALGAM to the experimental conditions and vice versa. The organic dosimetric system contained TLD-100 powder and could be shaped to represent human organs. The dosimeter possessed excellent characteristics for the measurement of internal absorbed doses, even in the case of the lungs. The molding techniques are inexpensive and were used in the fabrication of dosimetric and radioactive source organs. The adaptation of the computer program provided useful theoretical data with which the experimental measurements were compared. The experimental data and the theoretical calculations were compared for 6 source organ-7 target organ configurations. The results of the comparison indicated the existence of an agreement between measured and calculated absorbed doses, when taking into consideration the average uncertainty (16%) of the measurements, and the average coefficient of variation (10%) of the Monte Carlo calculations. However, analysis of the data gave also an indication that the Monte Carlo method might overestimate the internal absorbed doses. Even if the overestimate exists, at least it could be said that the use of the MIRD method in internal dosimetry was shown to lead to no unnecessary exposure to radiation that could be caused by underestimating the absorbed dose. The experimental and the theoretical data were also used to test the validity of the Reciprocity Theorem for heterogeneous

  4. Risk management

    OpenAIRE

    Šihovec, Martin

    2006-01-01

    Práce má dvě části - praktickou a teoretickou. V teoretické části je popsán risk management - základní pojmy, riziko, dělení risk managementu. V praktické části je zpracován risk management pro konkrétní firmu.

  5. Molecular calculations with B functions

    CERN Document Server

    Steinborn, E O; Ema, I; López, R; Ramírez, G

    1998-01-01

    A program for molecular calculations with B functions is reported and its performance is analyzed. All the one- and two-center integrals, and the three-center nuclear attraction integrals are computed by direct procedures, using previously developed algorithms. The three- and four-center electron repulsion integrals are computed by means of Gaussian expansions of the B functions. A new procedure for obtaining these expansions is also reported. Some results on full molecular calculations are included to show the capabilities of the program and the quality of the B functions to represent the electronic functions in molecules.

  6. Ab Initio Calculations of Oxosulfatovanadates

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frøberg, Torben; Johansen, Helge

    1996-01-01

    Restricted Hartree-Fock and multi-configurational self-consistent-field calculations together with secondorder perturbation theory have been used to study the geometry, the electron density, and the electronicspectrum of (VO2SO4)-. A bidentate sulphate attachment to vanadium was found to be stable...... with anO-V-O angle of 72.5 degrees . The calculated spectrum shows bands in reasonable agreement with anexperimental spectrum which has been attributed to (VO2SO4)-. The geometry and the electron density fortwo binuclear vanadium complexes proposed as intermediates in the vanadium catalyzed SO2...

  7. Data Acquisition and Flux Calculations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rebmann, C.; Kolle, O; Heinesch, B;

    2012-01-01

    In this chapter, the basic theory and the procedures used to obtain turbulent fluxes of energy, mass, and momentum with the eddy covariance technique will be detailed. This includes a description of data acquisition, pretreatment of high-frequency data and flux calculation.......In this chapter, the basic theory and the procedures used to obtain turbulent fluxes of energy, mass, and momentum with the eddy covariance technique will be detailed. This includes a description of data acquisition, pretreatment of high-frequency data and flux calculation....

  8. Friction and wear calculation methods

    CERN Document Server

    Kragelsky, I V; Kombalov, V S

    1981-01-01

    Friction and Wear: Calculation Methods provides an introduction to the main theories of a new branch of mechanics known as """"contact interaction of solids in relative motion."""" This branch is closely bound up with other sciences, especially physics and chemistry. The book analyzes the nature of friction and wear, and some theoretical relationships that link the characteristics of the processes and the properties of the contacting bodies essential for practical application of the theories in calculating friction forces and wear values. The effect of the environment on friction and wear is a

  9. Competitive Approach To Information System Risk Analyses

    OpenAIRE

    Miroslaw Ryba

    2004-01-01

    This article presents the method of IT risk assessment from human behaviour perspective, developed by the author. It is an alternative for the commonly used approaches to risk assessment, based on vulnerability and threat identification and the probability estimation of their occurrence. The authors method applies to risk calculation factors such as administrators or users skills, attackers knowledge and determination, or attack method used. The key element of the proposed risk analysis compe...

  10. Cognitive Reflection Versus Calculation in Decision Making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aleksandr eSinayev

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Scores on the three-item Cognitive Reflection Test (CRT have been linked with dual-system theory and normative decision making (Frederick, 2005. In particular, the CRT is thought to measure monitoring of System 1 intuitions such that, if cognitive reflection is high enough, intuitive errors will be detected and the problem will be solved. However, CRT items also require numeric ability to be answered correctly and it is unclear how much numeric ability vs. cognitive reflection contributes to better decision making. In two studies, CRT responses were used to calculate Cognitive Reflection and numeric ability; a numeracy scale was also administered. Numeric ability, measured on the CRT or the numeracy scale, accounted for the CRT’s ability to predict more normative decisions (a subscale of decision-making competence, incentivized measures of impatient and risk-averse choice, and self-reported financial outcomes; Cognitive Reflection contributed no independent predictive power. Results were similar whether the two abilities were modeled (Study 1 or calculated using proportions (Studies 1 and 2. These findings demonstrate numeric ability as a robust predictor of superior decision making across multiple tasks and outcomes. They also indicate that correlations of decision performance with the CRT are insufficient evidence to implicate overriding intuitions in the decision-making biases and outcomes we examined. Numeric ability appears to be the key mechanism instead.

  11. Dead reckoning calculating without instruments

    CERN Document Server

    Doerfler, Ronald W

    1993-01-01

    No author has gone as far as Doerfler in covering methods of mental calculation beyond simple arithmetic. Even if you have no interest in competing with computers you'll learn a great deal about number theory and the art of efficient computer programming. -Martin Gardner

  12. Professional Growth & Support Spending Calculator

    Science.gov (United States)

    Education Resource Strategies, 2013

    2013-01-01

    This "Professional Growth & Support Spending Calculator" helps school systems quantify all current spending aimed at improving teaching effectiveness. Part I provides worksheets to analyze total investment. Part II provides a system for evaluating investments based on purpose, target group, and delivery. In this Spending Calculator…

  13. Quasiclassical Calculations in Beam Dynamics

    CERN Document Server

    Fedorova, A N; Fedorova, Antonina N.; Zeitlin, Michael G.

    2000-01-01

    We present some applications of general harmonic/wavelet analysis approach (generalized coherent states, wavelet packets) to numerical/analytical calculations in (nonlinear) quasiclassical/quantum beam dynamics problems. (Naive) deformation quantization, multiresolution representations and Wigner transform are the key points.

  14. ITER Port Interspace Pressure Calculations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carbajo, Juan J [ORNL; Van Hove, Walter A [ORNL

    2016-01-01

    The ITER Vacuum Vessel (VV) is equipped with 54 access ports. Each of these ports has an opening in the bioshield that communicates with a dedicated port cell. During Tokamak operation, the bioshield opening must be closed with a concrete plug to shield the radiation coming from the plasma. This port plug separates the port cell into a Port Interspace (between VV closure lid and Port Plug) on the inner side and the Port Cell on the outer side. This paper presents calculations of pressures and temperatures in the ITER (Ref. 1) Port Interspace after a double-ended guillotine break (DEGB) of a pipe of the Tokamak Cooling Water System (TCWS) with high temperature water. It is assumed that this DEGB occurs during the worst possible conditions, which are during water baking operation, with water at a temperature of 523 K (250 C) and at a pressure of 4.4 MPa. These conditions are more severe than during normal Tokamak operation, with the water at 398 K (125 C) and 2 MPa. Two computer codes are employed in these calculations: RELAP5-3D Version 4.2.1 (Ref. 2) to calculate the blowdown releases from the pipe break, and MELCOR, Version 1.8.6 (Ref. 3) to calculate the pressures and temperatures in the Port Interspace. A sensitivity study has been performed to optimize some flow areas.

  15. Relativistic multiple scattering Xα calculations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A one component relativistic theory has recently been developed and tested on isolated atoms and on molecules through the molecular scattered-wave formalism of Johnson, while its application to energy-band calculations (through a relativistic augmented-plane-wave program) has also been considered

  16. DOUBLE-MARKOV RISK MODEL

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Xiaoyun MO; Jieming ZHOU; Hui OU; Xiangqun YANG

    2013-01-01

    Given a new Double-Markov risk model DM =(μ,Q,v,H; Y,Z) and Double-Markov risk process U ={U(t),t ≥ 0}.The ruin or survival problem is addressed.Equations which the survival probability satisfied and the formulas of calculating survival probability are obtained.Recursion formulas of calculating the survival probability and analytic expression of recursion items are obtained.The conclusions are expressed by Q matrix for a Markov chain and transition probabilities for another Markov Chain.

  17. RISK LOAN PORTFOLIO OPTIMIZATION MODEL BASED ON CVAR RISK MEASURE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ming-Chang LEE

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available In order to achieve commercial banks liquidity, safety and profitability objective requirements, loan portfolio risk analysis based optimization decisions are rational allocation of assets.  The risk analysis and asset allocation are the key technology of banking and risk management.  The aim of this paper, build a loan portfolio optimization model based on risk analysis.  Loan portfolio rate of return by using Value-at-Risk (VaR and Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR constraint optimization decision model reflects the bank's risk tolerance, and the potential loss of direct control of the bank.  In this paper, it analyze a general risk management model applied to portfolio problems with VaR and CVaR risk measures by using Using the Lagrangian Algorithm.  This paper solves the highly difficult problem by matrix operation method.  Therefore, the combination of this paper is easy understanding the portfolio problems with VaR and CVaR risk model is a hyperbola in mean-standard deviation space.  It is easy calculation in proposed method.

  18. Risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Liselotte; Rasmussen, Kirsten; Elsass, Peter

    2010-01-01

    International research suggests that using formalized risk assessment methods may improve the predictive validity of professionals' predictions of risk of future violence. This study presents data on forensic psychiatric patients discharged from a forensic unit in Denmark in year 2001-2002 (n=107...

  19. Risk management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    There is always a risk of an accident occurring at a nuclear power plant, however small. The problem lies in estimating the probability of it occurring. The method of probabilistic safety assessment provides this estimate, and by identifying the sources of potential risk, makes it possible to prevent them from occurring. It is not, however, a substitute for other decision-making processes. (author)

  20. Embracing risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ross Cagan

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available I entered the science field because I imagined that scientists were society's “professional risk takers”, that they like surfing out on the edge. I understood that a lot of science – perhaps even most science – has to be a solid exploration of partly understood phenomena. But any science that confronts a difficult problem has to start with risk. Most people are at least a bit suspicious of risk, and scientists such as myself are no exception. Recently, risk-taking has been under attack financially, but this Editorial is not about that. I am writing about the long view and the messages we send to our trainees. I am Senior Associate Dean of the graduate school at Mount Sinai and have had the privilege to discuss these issues with the next generation of scientists, for whom I care very deeply. Are we preparing you to embrace risk?

  1. AGING FACILITY CRITICALITY SAFETY CALCULATIONS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The purpose of this design calculation is to revise and update the previous criticality calculation for the Aging Facility (documented in BSC 2004a). This design calculation will also demonstrate and ensure that the storage and aging operations to be performed in the Aging Facility meet the criticality safety design criteria in the ''Project Design Criteria Document'' (Doraswamy 2004, Section 4.9.2.2), and the functional nuclear criticality safety requirement described in the ''SNF Aging System Description Document'' (BSC [Bechtel SAIC Company] 2004f, p. 3-12). The scope of this design calculation covers the systems and processes for aging commercial spent nuclear fuel (SNF) and staging Department of Energy (DOE) SNF/High-Level Waste (HLW) prior to its placement in the final waste package (WP) (BSC 2004f, p. 1-1). Aging commercial SNF is a thermal management strategy, while staging DOE SNF/HLW will make loading of WPs more efficient (note that aging DOE SNF/HLW is not needed since these wastes are not expected to exceed the thermal limits form emplacement) (BSC 2004f, p. 1-2). The description of the changes in this revised document is as follows: (1) Include DOE SNF/HLW in addition to commercial SNF per the current ''SNF Aging System Description Document'' (BSC 2004f). (2) Update the evaluation of Category 1 and 2 event sequences for the Aging Facility as identified in the ''Categorization of Event Sequences for License Application'' (BSC 2004c, Section 7). (3) Further evaluate the design and criticality controls required for a storage/aging cask, referred to as MGR Site-specific Cask (MSC), to accommodate commercial fuel outside the content specification in the Certificate of Compliance for the existing NRC-certified storage casks. In addition, evaluate the design required for the MSC that will accommodate DOE SNF/HLW. This design calculation will achieve the objective of providing the criticality safety results to support the preliminary design of the Aging

  2. Maximum Loss Calculation using Scenario Analysis, Heavy Tails and Implied Volatility Patterns

    OpenAIRE

    Söderman, Ronnie

    2000-01-01

    The objective of this paper is to improve option risk monitoring by examining the information content of implied volatility and by introducing the calculation of a single-sum expected risk exposure similar to the Value-at-Risk. The figure is calculated in two steps. First, there is a need to estimate the value of a portfolio of options for a number of different market scenarios, while the second step is to summarize the information content of the estimated scenarios into a single-sum risk mea...

  3. CONTRIBUTION FOR MINING ATMOSPHERE CALCULATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Franica Trojanović

    1989-12-01

    Full Text Available Humid air is an unavoidable feature of mining atmosphere, which plays a significant role in defining the climate conditions as well as permitted circumstances for normal mining work. Saturated humid air prevents heat conduction from the human body by means of evaporation. Consequently, it is of primary interest in the mining practice to establish the relative air humidity either by means of direct or indirect methods. Percentage of water in the surrounding air may be determined in various procedures including tables, diagrams or particular calculations, where each technique has its specific advantages and disadvantages. Classical calculation is done according to Sprung's formula, in which case partial steam pressure should also be taken from the steam table. The new method without the use of diagram or tables, established on the functional relation of pressure and temperature on saturated line, is presented here for the first time (the paper is published in Croatian.

  4. Calculation and Updating of Reliability Parameters in Probabilistic Safety Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zubair, Muhammad; Zhang, Zhijian; Khan, Salah Ud Din

    2011-02-01

    The internal events of nuclear power plant are complex and include equipment maintenance, equipment damage etc. These events will affect the probability of the current risk level of the system as well as the reliability of the equipment parameter values so such kind of events will serve as an important basis for systematic analysis and calculation. This paper presents a method for reliability parameters calculation and their updating. The method is based on binomial likelihood function and its conjugate beta distribution. For update parameters Bayes' theorem has been selected. To implement proposed method a computer base program is designed which provide help to estimate reliability parameters.

  5. Calculating Outcrossing Rates used in Decision Support Systems for Ships

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Ulrik Dam

    2008-01-01

    Onboard decision support systems (DSS) are used to increase the operational safety of ships. Ideally, DSS can estimate - in the statistical sense - future ship responses on a time scale of the order of 1-3 hours taking into account speed and course changes. The calculations depend on both...... operational and environmental parameters that are known only in the statistical sense. The present paper suggests a procedure to incorporate random variables and associated uncertainties in calculations of outcrossing rates, which are the basis for risk-based DSS. The procedure is based on parallel system...

  6. The Management Object in Risk Management Approaches

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christiansen, Ulrik

    Using a systematic review of the last 55 years of research within risk management this paper explores how risk management as a management technology (methodologies, tools and frameworks to mitigate or manage risks) singles out risks as an object for management in order to make action possible....... The paper synthesise by developing a framework of how different views on risk management enable and constrain the knowledge about risk and thus frame the possibilities to measure, analyse and calculate uncertainty and risk. Inspired by social studies of finance and accounting, the paper finally develops...... three propositions that illustrate how the framing of risk establishes a boundary for how managers might understand value creation and the possible future and how this impacts the possible responses to risk....

  7. Acceptable risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The hazards of nuclear power, radioactive wastes and radiation are analysed in a general book describing and defining acceptable-risk problems, the difficulties in resolving them and considering such issues as uncertainty about their definition, lack of relevant facts, conflicting and conflicted social values and disagreements between technical experts and the lay public. The many methods that have been proposed for resolving acceptable-risk problems are identified and criticised. (author)

  8. Calculation of gas turbine characteristic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mamaev, B. I.; Murashko, V. L.

    2016-04-01

    The reasons and regularities of vapor flow and turbine parameter variation depending on the total pressure drop rate π* and rotor rotation frequency n are studied, as exemplified by a two-stage compressor turbine of a power-generating gas turbine installation. The turbine characteristic is calculated in a wide range of mode parameters using the method in which analytical dependences provide high accuracy for the calculated flow output angle and different types of gas dynamic losses are determined with account of the influence of blade row geometry, blade surface roughness, angles, compressibility, Reynolds number, and flow turbulence. The method provides satisfactory agreement of results of calculation and turbine testing. In the design mode, the operation conditions for the blade rows are favorable, the flow output velocities are close to the optimal ones, the angles of incidence are small, and the flow "choking" modes (with respect to consumption) in the rows are absent. High performance and a nearly axial flow behind the turbine are obtained. Reduction of the rotor rotation frequency and variation of the pressure drop change the flow parameters, the parameters of the stages and the turbine, as well as the form of the characteristic. In particular, for decreased n, nonmonotonic variation of the second stage reactivity with increasing π* is observed. It is demonstrated that the turbine characteristic is mainly determined by the influence of the angles of incidence and the velocity at the output of the rows on the losses and the flow output angle. The account of the growing flow output angle due to the positive angle of incidence for decreased rotation frequencies results in a considerable change of the characteristic: poorer performance, redistribution of the pressure drop at the stages, and change of reactivities, growth of the turbine capacity, and change of the angle and flow velocity behind the turbine.

  9. Electronics reliability calculation and design

    CERN Document Server

    Dummer, Geoffrey W A; Hiller, N

    1966-01-01

    Electronics Reliability-Calculation and Design provides an introduction to the fundamental concepts of reliability. The increasing complexity of electronic equipment has made problems in designing and manufacturing a reliable product more and more difficult. Specific techniques have been developed that enable designers to integrate reliability into their products, and reliability has become a science in its own right. The book begins with a discussion of basic mathematical and statistical concepts, including arithmetic mean, frequency distribution, median and mode, scatter or dispersion of mea

  10. Rate calculation with colored noise

    CERN Document Server

    Bartsch, Thomas; Benito, R M; Borondo, F

    2016-01-01

    The usual identification of reactive trajectories for the calculation of reaction rates requires very time-consuming simulations, particularly if the environment presents memory effects. In this paper, we develop a new method that permits the identification of reactive trajectories in a system under the action of a stochastic colored driving. This method is based on the perturbative computation of the invariant structures that act as separatrices for reactivity. Furthermore, using this perturbative scheme, we have obtained a formally exact expression for the reaction rate in multidimensional systems coupled to colored noisy environments.

  11. Calculation of transonic aileron buzz

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steger, J. L.; Bailey, H. E.

    1979-01-01

    An implicit finite-difference computer code that uses a two-layer algebraic eddy viscosity model and exact geometric specification of the airfoil has been used to simulate transonic aileron buzz. The calculated results, which were performed on both the Illiac IV parallel computer processor and the Control Data 7600 computer, are in essential agreement with the original expository wind-tunnel data taken in the Ames 16-Foot Wind Tunnel just after World War II. These results and a description of the pertinent numerical techniques are included.

  12. Digital calculations of engine cycles

    CERN Document Server

    Starkman, E S; Taylor, C Fayette

    1964-01-01

    Digital Calculations of Engine Cycles is a collection of seven papers which were presented before technical meetings of the Society of Automotive Engineers during 1962 and 1963. The papers cover the spectrum of the subject of engine cycle events, ranging from an examination of composition and properties of the working fluid to simulation of the pressure-time events in the combustion chamber. The volume has been organized to present the material in a logical sequence. The first two chapters are concerned with the equilibrium states of the working fluid. These include the concentrations of var

  13. Calculational Tool for Skin Contamination Dose Assessment

    CERN Document Server

    Hill, R L

    2002-01-01

    Spreadsheet calculational tool was developed to automate the calculations preformed for dose assessment of skin contamination. This document reports on the design and testing of the spreadsheet calculational tool.

  14. Atomic physics: computer calculations and theoretical analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Drukarev, E. G.

    2004-01-01

    It is demonstrated, how the theoretical analysis preceding the numerical calculations helps to calculate the energy of the ground state of helium atom, and enables to avoid qualitative errors in the calculations of the characteristics of the double photoionization.

  15. Risk Control of Offshore Installations. A Framework for the Establishment of Risk Indicators

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oeien, Knut

    2001-07-01

    Currently quantitative risk assessments are carried out to analyze the risk level of offshore installations and to evaluate whether or not the risk level is acceptable. By way of the quantitative risk analysis the risk status of a given installation is obtained. However, the risk status is obtained so infrequently that it is inadequate for risk control. It can be compared to economic control having the economic status presented about each fifth year, which is obviously inadequate. It is important to know the risk status because this may provide an early warning about the need for remedial actions. Without frequent information about the risk status, control of risk cannot be claimed. The main objective of this thesis has been the development of a framework for the establishment of risk indicators. These risk indicators provide a status of the risk level through measuring of changes in technical, operational and organizational factors important to risk, and is thus a means to control risk during operation of offshore petroleum installations. The framework consists of a technical methodology using the quantitative risk assessment as a basis, an organizational model, and an organizational quantification methodology. Technical risk indicators are established from the technical methodology covering the risk factors explicitly included in the quantitative risk assessment. Organizational risk indicators measure changes in the organizational risk factors included in the organizational model, but not included in the quantitative risk assessment. The organizational model is an extension to the risk model in the quantitative risk assessment. The organizational quantification methodology calculates the effect of the changes measured by the organizational risk indicators. The organizational model may also be applied as a qualitative tool for root cause analysis of incidents (process leaks). Other results are an intermediate-level expert judgment procedure applicable for

  16. Calculation of sound propagation in fibrous materials

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tarnow, Viggo

    1996-01-01

    Calculations of attenuation and velocity of audible sound waves in glass wools are presented. The calculations use only the diameters of fibres and the mass density of glass wools as parameters. The calculations are compared with measurements.......Calculations of attenuation and velocity of audible sound waves in glass wools are presented. The calculations use only the diameters of fibres and the mass density of glass wools as parameters. The calculations are compared with measurements....

  17. Dietary burden calculations relating to fish metabolism studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schlechtriem, Christian; Pucher, Johannes; Michalski, Britta

    2016-03-30

    Fish farming is increasingly dependent on plant commodities as a source of feed leading to an increased risk for pesticide residues in aquaculture diets and consequently their transfer into aquaculture food products. The European pesticide regulation requires fish metabolism and fish feeding studies where residues in fish feed exceed 0.1 mg kg(-1) of the total diet (dry weight basis) to enable the setting of appropriate maximum residue levels in fish commodities. Fish dietary burden calculation is therefore an important prerequisite to decide on further experimental testing as part of the consumer risk assessment. In this review, the different aquaculture production systems are compared with regard to their specific feeding practices and the principles of dietary burden calculation are described. PMID:26749492

  18. Flow Field Calculations for Afterburner

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZhaoJianxing; LiuQuanzhong; 等

    1995-01-01

    In this paper a calculation procedure for simulating the coimbustion flow in the afterburner with the heat shield,flame stabilizer and the contracting nozzle is described and evaluated by comparison with experimental data.The modified two-equation κ-ε model is employed to consider the turbulence effects,and the κ-ε-g turbulent combustion model is used to determine the reaction rate.To take into accunt the influence of heat radiation on gas temperature distribution,heat flux model is applied to predictions of heat flux distributions,The solution domain spanned the entire region between centerline and afterburner wall ,with the heat shield represented as a blockage to the mesh.The enthalpy equation and wall boundary of the heat shield require special handling for two passages in the afterburner,In order to make the computer program suitable to engineering applications,a subregional scheme is developed for calculating flow fields of complex geometries.The computational grids employed are 100×100 and 333×100(non-uniformly distributed).The numerical results are compared with experimental data,Agreement between predictions and measurements shows that the numerical method and the computational program used in the study are fairly reasonable and appopriate for primary design of the afterburner.

  19. Light Pipe Energy Savings Calculator

    Science.gov (United States)

    Owens, Erin; Behringer, Ernest R.

    2009-04-01

    Dependence on fossil fuels is unsustainable and therefore a shift to renewable energy sources such as sunlight is required. Light pipes provide a way to utilize sunlight for interior lighting, and can reduce the need for fossil fuel-generated electrical energy. Because consumers considering light pipe installation may be more strongly motivated by cost considerations than by sustainability arguments, an easy means to examine the corresponding costs and benefits is needed to facilitate informed decision-making. The purpose of this American Physical Society Physics and Society Fellowship project is to create a Web-based calculator to allow users to quantify the possible cost savings for their specific light pipe application. Initial calculations show that the illumination provided by light pipes can replace electric light use during the day, and in many cases can supply greater illumination levels than those typically given by electric lighting. While the installation cost of a light pipe is significantly greater than the avoided cost of electricity over the lifetime of the light pipe at current prices, savings may be realized if electricity prices increase.

  20. Critical evaluation of German regulatory specifications for calculating radiological exposure

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Koenig, Claudia; Walther, Clemens [Hannover Univ. (Germany). Inst. of Radioecology; Smeddinck, Ulrich [Technische Univ. Braunschweig (Germany). Inst. of Law

    2015-07-01

    The assessment of radiological exposure of the public is an issue at the interface between scientific findings, juridical standard setting and political decision. The present work revisits the German regulatory specifications for calculating radiological exposure, like the already existing calculation model General Administrative Provision (AVV) for planning and monitoring nuclear facilities. We address the calculation models for the recent risk assessment regarding the final disposal of radioactive waste in Germany. To do so, a two-pronged approach is pursued. One part deals with radiological examinations of the groundwater-soil-transfer path of radionuclides into the biosphere. Processes at the so-called geosphere-biosphere-interface are examined, especially migration of I-129 in the unsaturated zone. This is necessary, since the German General Administrative Provision does not consider radionuclide transport via groundwater from an underground disposal facility yet. Especially data with regard to processes in the vadose zone are scarce. Therefore, using I-125 as a tracer, immobilization and mobilization of iodine is investigated in two reference soils from the German Federal Environment Agency. The second part of this study examines how scientific findings but also measures and activities of stakeholders and concerned parties influence juridical standard setting, which is necessary for risk management. Risk assessment, which is a scientific task, includes identification and investigation of relevant sources of radiation, possible pathways to humans, and maximum extent and duration of exposure based on dose-response functions. Risk characterization identifies probability and severity of health effects. These findings have to be communicated to authorities, who have to deal with the risk management. Risk management includes, for instance, taking into account acceptability of the risk, actions to reduce, mitigate, substitute or monitor the hazard, the setting of

  1. Critical evaluation of German regulatory specifications for calculating radiological exposure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The assessment of radiological exposure of the public is an issue at the interface between scientific findings, juridical standard setting and political decision. The present work revisits the German regulatory specifications for calculating radiological exposure, like the already existing calculation model General Administrative Provision (AVV) for planning and monitoring nuclear facilities. We address the calculation models for the recent risk assessment regarding the final disposal of radioactive waste in Germany. To do so, a two-pronged approach is pursued. One part deals with radiological examinations of the groundwater-soil-transfer path of radionuclides into the biosphere. Processes at the so-called geosphere-biosphere-interface are examined, especially migration of I-129 in the unsaturated zone. This is necessary, since the German General Administrative Provision does not consider radionuclide transport via groundwater from an underground disposal facility yet. Especially data with regard to processes in the vadose zone are scarce. Therefore, using I-125 as a tracer, immobilization and mobilization of iodine is investigated in two reference soils from the German Federal Environment Agency. The second part of this study examines how scientific findings but also measures and activities of stakeholders and concerned parties influence juridical standard setting, which is necessary for risk management. Risk assessment, which is a scientific task, includes identification and investigation of relevant sources of radiation, possible pathways to humans, and maximum extent and duration of exposure based on dose-response functions. Risk characterization identifies probability and severity of health effects. These findings have to be communicated to authorities, who have to deal with the risk management. Risk management includes, for instance, taking into account acceptability of the risk, actions to reduce, mitigate, substitute or monitor the hazard, the setting of

  2. Health risks of energy systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Electricity generation from fossil, nuclear or renewable sources causes an increased level of ambient air concentration of pollutants or an increased level of ionizing radiation due to activities at the various process steps of the energy systems, resulting in adverse health effects on the general public. Public health impacts from increased levels of airborne pollutants due to fossil fuel electricity generation have been calculated using a set of air quality models and recently reviewed exposure response functions. Since airborne pollutants from renewable energy (photovoltaic, wind) systems are mainly emitted from upstream activities, a full life cycle analysis has been performed to capture major impacts. The results show that the ranking of energy systems according to public risk depends strongly on the choice of the risk indicator. However, the general conclusion that can be drawn is that the risks resulting from the use of solid and liquid fossil fuels are at the upper end, while electricity generation from wind is an option with rather low risks per kilowatt-hour. To quantify the marginal risk induced by the choice of a specific technology, the concept of net risk has been introduced, taking into account only the difference between the risk of average industrial activities and the risk of the specific activity related to the fuel cycle of concern. Because of the high risk of underground mining, electricity production from coal has by far the highest occupational risks. Net risks from the photovoltaic system are negative, while occupational net risks from lignite, natural gas, wind and nuclear systems are positive but very low. 15 refs, 4 figs, 4 tabs

  3. Managing Risks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Alaranta, Maria Eliisa; Mathiassen, Lars

    2014-01-01

    Mergers and acquisitions (M&A) require organizations to blend together different information system (IS) configurations. Unfortunately, less than 50 percent of M&A's achieve their goals, with IS integration being a major problem. Here, the authors offer a framework to help managers prepare for......, analyze, and mitigate risks during post-merger IS integration. They identify key risks relating to IS integration content, process, and context, and present five strategies for mitigating those risks. Their framework aims to help managers proactively reduce the impact of adverse events. Adopting...... the framework supported by their templates is straightforward and the time and resources required are minimal. When properly executed, adoption increases the likelihood of successful merger outcomes; the framework is thus a valuable addition to the management tool box and can be applied in collaboration...

  4. Langage C++ et calcul scientifique

    OpenAIRE

    Saramito, Pierre

    2005-01-01

    La simulation numérique est devenue essentielle dans de nombreux domaines tels que la mécanique des fluides et des solides, la météo, l'évolution du climat, la biologie ou les semi-conducteurs. Elle permet de comprendre, de prévoir, d'accéder là où les instruments de mesures s'arrêtent. Ce livre présente des méthodes performantes du calcul scientifique : matrices creuses, résolution efficace des grands systèmes linéaires, ainsi que de nombreuses applications à la résolution par éléments fini...

  5. Painless causality in defect calculations

    CERN Document Server

    Cheung, C; Cheung, Charlotte; Magueijo, Joao

    1997-01-01

    Topological defects must respect causality, a statement leading to restrictive constraints on the power spectrum of the total cosmological perturbations they induce. Causality constraints have for long been known to require the presence of an under-density in the surrounding matter compensating the defect network on large scales. This so-called compensation can never be neglected and significantly complicates calculations in defect scenarios, eg. computing cosmic microwave background fluctuations. A quick and dirty way to implement the compensation are the so-called compensation fudge factors. Here we derive the complete photon-baryon-CDM backreaction effects in defect scenarios. The fudge factor comes out as an algebraic identity and so we drop the negative qualifier ``fudge''. The compensation scale is computed and physically interpreted. Secondary backreaction effects exist, and neglecting them constitutes the well-defined approximation scheme within which one should consider compensation factor calculatio...

  6. Thermodynamic Calculations for Systems Biocatalysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Abu, Rohana; Gundersen, Maria T.; Woodley, John M.

    2015-01-01

    ‘Systems Biocatalysis’ is a term describing multi-enzyme processes in vitro for the synthesis of chemical products. Unlike in-vivo systems, such an artificial metabolism can be controlled in a highly efficient way in order to achieve a sufficiently favourable conversion for a given target product...... on the basis of kinetics. However, many of the most interesting non-natural chemical reactions which could potentially be catalysed by enzymes, are thermodynamically unfavourable and are thus limited by the equilibrium position of the reaction. A good example is the enzyme ω-transaminase, which catalyses...... be altered by coupling with other reactions. For instance, in the case of ω-transaminase, such a coupling could be with alanine dehydrogenase. Herein, the aim of this work is to identify thermodynamic bottlenecks within a multi-enzyme process, using group contribution method to calculate the Gibbs free...

  7. FLAG-SGH Sedov calculations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fung, Jimmy [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Schofield, Sam [LLNL; Shashkov, Mikhail J. [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2012-06-25

    We did not run with a 'cylindrically painted region'. However, we did compute two general variants of the original problem. Refinement studies where a single zone at each level of refinement contains the entire internal energy at t=0 or A 'finite' energy source which has the same physical dimensions as that for the 91 x 46 mesh, but consisting of increasing numbers of zones with refinement. Nominal mesh resolution: 91 x 46. Other mesh resolutions: 181 x 92 and 361 x 184. Note, not identical to the original specification. To maintain symmetry for the 'fixed' energy source, the mesh resolution was adjusted slightly. FLAG Lagrange or full (Eulerian) ALE was used with various options for each simulation. Observation - for either Lagrange or ALE, point or 'fixed' source, calculations converge on density and pressure with mesh resolution, but not energy, (not vorticity either).

  8. Visualization tools for insurance risk processes

    OpenAIRE

    Krzysztof Burnecki; Rafal Weron

    2006-01-01

    This chapter develops on risk processes which, perhaps, are most suitable for computer visualization of all insurance objects. At the same time, risk processes are basic instruments for any non-life actuary – they are vital for calculating the amount of loss that an insurance company may incur.

  9. Calculating the GONG Leakage Matrix

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hill, F.; Howe, R.

    Since spherical harmonics do not form a complete orthonormal basis set over a portion of a sphere, helioseismic spectra computed for a specific target mode with degree ellt and azimuthal degree mt also contain modes with nearby ell'' and m''. These spatial leaks greatly increase the complexity of the observed spectrum, complicating the spectral fitting and degrading the resulting mode parameter estimates. This is particularly true where the target mode and the leaks have similar frequencies. Some strategies for fitting helioseismic spectra explicitly include the leakage matrix which estimates the relative strength of a mode (ell'' and m'') in the spectrum at (ellt,mt). Since the fitting methods assume that the matrix is correct and apply it as a constraint, an inaccurate matrix introduces systematic errors in the estimated mode parameters. It is thus important to have as accurate a matrix as possible. Here we report on the calculation of the leakage matrix for the GONG observations. The matrix elements are essentially the integrals (over the observed portion of the solar surface) of the crossproducts of the two spherical harmonics. However, several effects have been included to increase the accuracy of the matrix. These include the projection factor of the observable (velocity, intensity, modulation), the spatial apodization applied to the data, the finite rectangular pixel dimensions of the observations, and possible errors in the estimated image geometry. Other factors to be incorporated are the observed MTF, the merging of the GONG images, and the horizontal components of the oscillatory velocity field. We will compare the latest calculation with the observed spectrum and assess the relative importance of the input factors. We will also compare the leakage matrices for velocity and intensity to estimate their contribution to the large apparent differences in the helioseismic spectra obtained from these observables.

  10. Dyscalculia and the Calculating Brain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rapin, Isabelle

    2016-08-01

    Dyscalculia, like dyslexia, affects some 5% of school-age children but has received much less investigative attention. In two thirds of affected children, dyscalculia is associated with another developmental disorder like dyslexia, attention-deficit disorder, anxiety disorder, visual and spatial disorder, or cultural deprivation. Infants, primates, some birds, and other animals are born with the innate ability, called subitizing, to tell at a glance whether small sets of scattered dots or other items differ by one or more item. This nonverbal approximate number system extends mostly to single digit sets as visual discrimination drops logarithmically to "many" with increasing numerosity (size effect) and crowding (distance effect). Preschoolers need several years and specific teaching to learn verbal names and visual symbols for numbers and school agers to understand their cardinality and ordinality and the invariance of their sequence (arithmetic number line) that enables calculation. This arithmetic linear line differs drastically from the nonlinear approximate number system mental number line that parallels the individual number-tuned neurons in the intraparietal sulcus in monkeys and overlying scalp distribution of discrete functional magnetic resonance imaging activations by number tasks in man. Calculation is a complex skill that activates both visual and spatial and visual and verbal networks. It is less strongly left lateralized than language, with approximate number system activation somewhat more right sided and exact number and arithmetic activation more left sided. Maturation and increasing number skill decrease associated widespread non-numerical brain activations that persist in some individuals with dyscalculia, which has no single, universal neurological cause or underlying mechanism in all affected individuals. PMID:27515455

  11. UncertiantyQuantificationinTsunamiEarlyWarningCalculations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anunziato, Alessandro

    2016-04-01

    The objective of the Tsunami calculations is the estimation of the impact of waves caused by large seismic events on the coasts and the determination of potential inundation areas. In the case of Early Warning Systems, i.e. systems that should allow to anticipate the possible effects and give the possibility to react consequently (i.e. issue evacuation of areas at risk), this must be done in very short time (minutes) to be effective. In reality, the above estimation includes several uncertainty factors which make the prediction extremely difficult. The quality of the very first estimations of the seismic parameters is not very precise: the uncertainty in the determination of the seismic components (location, magnitude and depth) decreases with time because as time passes it is possible to use more and more seismic signals and the event characterization becomes more precise. On the other hand other parameters that are necessary to establish for the performance of a calculation (i.e. fault mechanism) are difficult to estimate accurately also after hours (and in some cases remain unknown) and therefore this uncertainty remains in the estimated impact evaluations; when a quick tsunami calculation is necessary (early warning systems) the possibility to include any possible future variation of the conditions to establish the "worst case scenario" is particularly important. The consequence is that the number of uncertain parameters is so large that it is not easy to assess the relative importance of each of them and their effect on the predicted results. In general the complexity of system computer codes is generated by the multitude of different models which are assembled into a single program to give the global response for a particular phenomenon. Each of these model has associated a determined uncertainty coming from the application of that model to single cases and/or separated effect test cases. The difficulty in the prediction of a Tsunami calculation response is

  12. Risk taking under heterogenous risk sharing

    OpenAIRE

    Belhaj, Mohamed; Frédéric DEROÏAN

    2009-01-01

    We revisit the common view that risk sharing enhances risk taking in the context of heterogenous risk sharing in a small economy. Under low volumes of transfers, we express individual risk level in terms of Bonacich measure. We find that heterogeneity combined to strategic interaction imply that risk sharing enhances risk taking only in average. However, under high transfer volumes, risk sharing may reduce risk taking. We also provide conditions under which agents under or over invest with re...

  13. Risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This book contains a selection of research works performed in the CEDIAC Institute (Cuyo National University) in the area of Risk Analysis, with specific orientations to the subjects of uncertainty and sensitivity studies, software reliability, severe accident modeling, etc. This volume presents important material for all those researches who want to have an insight in the risk analysis field, as a tool to solution several problems frequently found in the engineering and applied sciences field, as well as for the academic teachers who want to keep up to date, including the new developments and improvements continuously arising in this field

  14. Minimizing risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This article discusses ways to reduce the economic risk of independent energy projects. The topics of the article include risk categorization into areas of property, boiler and machinery, business income, and general liability, choosing a broker, choosing an insurer, and helping an insurer develop the best portfolio for the project. The author feels that attention to the guidelines for the right insurance coverage is as vital to a plant's economic stability as attention to the details of the blueprints is to its physical stability

  15. Calculation notes in support of TWRS FSAR spray leak accident analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hall, B.W., Westinghouse Hanford

    1996-08-05

    This document includes the calculations needed to quantify the risk associated with unmitigated and mitigated pressurized spray releases from tank farm transfer equipment inside transfer enclosures. The calculations within this document support the spray leak accident analysis reported in the TWRS FSAR.

  16. Contradictions Between Risk Management and Sustainable Development

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Olsen, Odd Einar; Langhelle, Oluf; Engen, Ole A. [Univ. of Stavanger (Norway). Dept. of Media, Culture and Social Science

    2006-09-15

    The aim of this paper is to discuss how risk management as a methodology and mindset influence on priorities and decisions concerning sustainable development. Management of risks and hazards often rely on partial analysis with a limited time frame. This may lead to a paradoxical situation where risk management and extended use of risk analysis could hamper long term sustainable development. The question is: Does the use of risk and vulnerability analysis (RaV-analysis) hamper or contribute to sustainable development? Because risk management and assessment has a more narrow scope and a limited time perspective based on well established methodologies, the tangible impacts of risk reducing measures in a project is easier to calculate than long-term and intangible impacts on global development. Empirical evidence is still scarce, but our preliminary conclusion is that mainstream risk management and assessments is counterproductive to sustainable development.

  17. Contradictions Between Risk Management and Sustainable Development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The aim of this paper is to discuss how risk management as a methodology and mindset influence on priorities and decisions concerning sustainable development. Management of risks and hazards often rely on partial analysis with a limited time frame. This may lead to a paradoxical situation where risk management and extended use of risk analysis could hamper long term sustainable development. The question is: Does the use of risk and vulnerability analysis (RaV-analysis) hamper or contribute to sustainable development? Because risk management and assessment has a more narrow scope and a limited time perspective based on well established methodologies, the tangible impacts of risk reducing measures in a project is easier to calculate than long-term and intangible impacts on global development. Empirical evidence is still scarce, but our preliminary conclusion is that mainstream risk management and assessments is counterproductive to sustainable development

  18. On Calculation of Amplitudes in Quantum Electrodynamics

    OpenAIRE

    Karplyuk, Kostyantyn; Zhmudsky, Oleksandr

    2012-01-01

    A new method of calculation of amplitudes of different processes in quantum electrodynamics is proposed. The method does not use the Feynman technique of trace of product of matrices calculation. The method strongly simplifies calculation of cross sections for different processes. The effectiveness of the method is shown on the cross-section calculation of Coulomb scattering, Compton scattering and electron-positron annihilation.

  19. Identifying admitted patients at risk of dying

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brabrand, Mikkel; Knudsen, Torben; Hallas, Jesper

    2013-01-01

    Risk assessment is an important part of emergency patient care. Risk assessment tools based on biochemical data have the advantage that calculation can be automated and results can be easily provided. However, to be used clinically, existing tools have to be validated by independent researchers....... This study involved an independent external validation of four risk stratification systems predicting death that rely primarily on biochemical variables....

  20. Factors affecting calculation of L

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ciotola, Mark P.

    2001-08-01

    A detectable extraterrestrial civilization can be modeled as a series of successive regimes over time each of which is detectable for a certain proportion of its lifecycle. This methodology can be utilized to produce an estimate for L. Potential components of L include quantity of fossil fuel reserves, solar energy potential, quantity of regimes over time, lifecycle patterns of regimes, proportion of lifecycle regime is actually detectable, and downtime between regimes. Relationships between these components provide a means of calculating the lifetime of communicative species in a detectable state, L. An example of how these factors interact is provided, utilizing values that are reasonable given known astronomical data for components such as solar energy potential while existing knowledge about the terrestrial case is used as a baseline for other components including fossil fuel reserves, quantity of regimes over time, and lifecycle patterns of regimes, proportion of lifecycle regime is actually detectable, and gaps of time between regimes due to recovery from catastrophic war or resource exhaustion. A range of values is calculated for L when parameters are established for each component so as to determine the lowest and highest values of L. roadmap for SETI research at the SETI Institute for the next few decades. Three different approaches were identified. 1) Continue the radio search: build an affordable array incorporating consumer market technologies, expand the search frequency, and increase the target list to 100,000 stars. This array will also serve as a technology demonstration and enable the international radio astronomy community to realize an array that is a hundred times larger and capable (among other things) of searching a million stars. 2) Begin searches for very fast optical pulses from a million stars. 3) As Moore's Law delivers increased computational capacity, build an omni-directional sky survey array capable of detecting strong, transient

  1. Predicting 10-Year Risk of Fatal Cardiovascular Disease in Germany: An Update Based on the SCORE-Deutschland Risk Charts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rücker, Viktoria; Keil, Ulrich; Fitzgerald, Anthony P; Malzahn, Uwe; Prugger, Christof; Ertl, Georg; Heuschmann, Peter U; Neuhauser, Hannelore

    2016-01-01

    Estimation of absolute risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD), preferably with population-specific risk charts, has become a cornerstone of CVD primary prevention. Regular recalibration of risk charts may be necessary due to decreasing CVD rates and CVD risk factor levels. The SCORE risk charts for fatal CVD risk assessment were first calibrated for Germany with 1998 risk factor level data and 1999 mortality statistics. We present an update of these risk charts based on the SCORE methodology including estimates of relative risks from SCORE, risk factor levels from the German Health Interview and Examination Survey for Adults 2008-11 (DEGS1) and official mortality statistics from 2012. Competing risks methods were applied and estimates were independently validated. Updated risk charts were calculated based on cholesterol, smoking, systolic blood pressure risk factor levels, sex and 5-year age-groups. The absolute 10-year risk estimates of fatal CVD were lower according to the updated risk charts compared to the first calibration for Germany. In a nationwide sample of 3062 adults aged 40-65 years free of major CVD from DEGS1, the mean 10-year risk of fatal CVD estimated by the updated charts was lower by 29% and the estimated proportion of high risk people (10-year risk > = 5%) by 50% compared to the older risk charts. This recalibration shows a need for regular updates of risk charts according to changes in mortality and risk factor levels in order to sustain the identification of people with a high CVD risk. PMID:27612145

  2. Predicting 10-Year Risk of Fatal Cardiovascular Disease in Germany: An Update Based on the SCORE-Deutschland Risk Charts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rücker, Viktoria; Keil, Ulrich; Fitzgerald, Anthony P; Malzahn, Uwe; Prugger, Christof; Ertl, Georg; Heuschmann, Peter U; Neuhauser, Hannelore

    2016-01-01

    Estimation of absolute risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD), preferably with population-specific risk charts, has become a cornerstone of CVD primary prevention. Regular recalibration of risk charts may be necessary due to decreasing CVD rates and CVD risk factor levels. The SCORE risk charts for fatal CVD risk assessment were first calibrated for Germany with 1998 risk factor level data and 1999 mortality statistics. We present an update of these risk charts based on the SCORE methodology including estimates of relative risks from SCORE, risk factor levels from the German Health Interview and Examination Survey for Adults 2008–11 (DEGS1) and official mortality statistics from 2012. Competing risks methods were applied and estimates were independently validated. Updated risk charts were calculated based on cholesterol, smoking, systolic blood pressure risk factor levels, sex and 5-year age-groups. The absolute 10-year risk estimates of fatal CVD were lower according to the updated risk charts compared to the first calibration for Germany. In a nationwide sample of 3062 adults aged 40–65 years free of major CVD from DEGS1, the mean 10-year risk of fatal CVD estimated by the updated charts was lower by 29% and the estimated proportion of high risk people (10-year risk > = 5%) by 50% compared to the older risk charts. This recalibration shows a need for regular updates of risk charts according to changes in mortality and risk factor levels in order to sustain the identification of people with a high CVD risk. PMID:27612145

  3. SIMULATION OF COLLECTIVE RISK MODEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Viera Pacáková

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available The article focuses on providing brief theoretical definitions of the basic terms and methods of modeling and simulations of insurance risks in non-life insurance by means of mathematical and statistical methods using statistical software. While risk assessment of insurance company in connection with its solvency is a rather complex and comprehensible problem, its solution starts with statistical modeling of number and amount of individual claims. Successful solution of these fundamental problems enables solving of curtail problems of insurance such as modeling and simulation of collective risk, premium an reinsurance premium calculation, estimation of probabiliy of ruin etc. The article also presents some essential ideas underlying Monte Carlo methods and their applications to modeling of insurance risk. Solving problem is to find the probability distribution of the collective risk in non-life insurance portfolio. Simulation of the compound distribution function of the aggregate claim amount can be carried out, if the distibution functions of the claim number process and the claim size are assumed given. The Monte Carlo simulation is suitable method to confirm the results of other methods and for treatments of catastrophic claims, when small collectives are studied. Analysis of insurance risks using risk theory is important part of the project Solvency II. Risk theory is analysis of stochastic features of non-life insurance process. The field of application of risk theory has grown rapidly. There is a need to develop the theory into form suitable for practical purposes and demostrate their application. Modern computer simulation techniques open up a wide field of practical applications for risk theory concepts, without requiring the restricive assumptions and sophisticated mathematics. This article presents some comparisons of the traditional actuarial methods and of simulation methods of the collective risk model.

  4. A comparison of risk aversion between markets

    OpenAIRE

    Tavares, José Pedro Moura

    2013-01-01

    In this study we perform a comparison between the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the FTSE 100 indexes concerning their estimated risk aversions. Risk neutral densities are calculated for both indexes using a polynomial-lognormal, a GB2 and a mixture of two lognormal distributions; we show that the best fit to observed data is obtained using the latter. For the method of best fit, and assuming a power utility function, the risk aversion of investors is calculated using a maximum likelihood m...

  5. Application of probabilistic risk assessment to reprocessing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Savannah River Laboratory uses probabilistic methods of risk assessment in safety analyses of reprocessing facilities at the Savannah River Plant. This method uses both the probability of an accident and its consequence to calculate the risks from radiological, chemical, and industrial hazards. The three principal steps in such an assesment are identification of accidents, calculation of frequencies, and consequence quantification. The tools used at SRL include several databanks, logic tree methods, and computer-assisted methods for calculating both frequencies and consequences. 5 figures

  6. Benchmark calculations for EGS5

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In the past few years, EGS4 has undergone an extensive upgrade to EGS5, in particularly in the areas of low-energy electron physics, low-energy photon physics, PEGS cross section generation, and the coding from Mortran to Fortran programming. Benchmark calculations have been made to assure the accuracy, reliability and high quality of the EGS5 code system. This study reports three benchmark examples that show the successful upgrade from EGS4 to EGS5 based on the excellent agreements among EGS4, EGS5 and measurements. The first benchmark example is the 1969 Crannell Experiment to measure the three-dimensional distribution of energy deposition for 1-GeV electrons shower in water and aluminum tanks. The second example is the 1995 Compton-scattered spectra measurements for 20-40 keV, linearly polarized photon by Namito et. al., in KEK, which was a main part of the low-energy photon expansion work for both EGS4 and EGS5. The third example is the 1986 heterogeneity benchmark experiment by Shortt et. al., who used a monoenergetic 20-MeV electron beam to hit the front face of a water tank containing both air and aluminum cylinders and measured spatial depth dose distribution using a small solid-state detector. (author)

  7. Calculating system reliability with SRFYDO

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Morzinski, Jerome [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Anderson - Cook, Christine M [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Klamann, Richard M [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2010-01-01

    SRFYDO is a process for estimating reliability of complex systems. Using information from all applicable sources, including full-system (flight) data, component test data, and expert (engineering) judgment, SRFYDO produces reliability estimates and predictions. It is appropriate for series systems with possibly several versions of the system which share some common components. It models reliability as a function of age and up to 2 other lifecycle (usage) covariates. Initial output from its Exploratory Data Analysis mode consists of plots and numerical summaries so that the user can check data entry and model assumptions, and help determine a final form for the system model. The System Reliability mode runs a complete reliability calculation using Bayesian methodology. This mode produces results that estimate reliability at the component, sub-system, and system level. The results include estimates of uncertainty, and can predict reliability at some not-too-distant time in the future. This paper presents an overview of the underlying statistical model for the analysis, discusses model assumptions, and demonstrates usage of SRFYDO.

  8. Selfconsistent calculations for hyperdeformed nuclei

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Molique, H.; Dobaczewski, J.; Dudek, J.; Luo, W.D. [Universite Louis Pasteur, Strasbourg (France)

    1996-12-31

    Properties of the hyperdeformed nuclei in the A {approximately} 170 mass range are re-examined using the self-consistent Hartree-Fock method with the SOP parametrization. A comparison with the previous predictions that were based on a non-selfconsistent approach is made. The existence of the {open_quotes}hyper-deformed shell closures{close_quotes} at the proton and neutron numbers Z=70 and N=100 and their very weak dependence on the rotational frequency is suggested; the corresponding single-particle energy gaps are predicted to play a role similar to that of the Z=66 and N=86 gaps in the super-deformed nuclei of the A {approximately} 150 mass range. Selfconsistent calculations suggest also that the A {approximately} 170 hyperdeformed structures have neglegible mass asymmetry in their shapes. Very importantly for the experimental studies, both the fission barriers and the {open_quotes}inner{close_quotes} barriers (that separate the hyperdeformed structures from those with smaller deformations) are predicted to be relatively high, up to the factor of {approximately}2 higher than the corresponding ones in the {sup 152}Dy superdeformed nucleus used as a reference.

  9. RTU Comparison Calculator Enhancement Plan

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Miller, James D. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Wang, Weimin [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Katipamula, Srinivas [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2015-07-01

    Over the past two years, Department of Energy’s Building Technologies Office (BTO) has been investigating ways to increase the operating efficiency of the packaged rooftop units (RTUs) in the field. First, by issuing a challenge to the RTU manufactures to increase the integrated energy efficiency ratio (IEER) by 60% over the existing ASHRAE 90.1-2010 standard. Second, by evaluating the performance of an advanced RTU controller that reduces the energy consumption by over 40%. BTO has previously also funded development of a RTU comparison calculator (RTUCC). RTUCC is a web-based tool that provides the user a way to compare energy and cost savings for two units with different efficiencies. However, the RTUCC currently cannot compare savings associated with either the RTU Challenge unit or the advanced RTU controls retrofit. Therefore, BTO has asked PNNL to enhance the tool so building owners can compare energy and savings associated with this new class of products. This document provides the details of the enhancements that are required to support estimating energy savings from use of RTU challenge units or advanced controls on existing RTUs.

  10. RTU Comparison Calculator Enhancement Plan

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Miller, James D.; Wang, Weimin; Katipamula, Srinivas

    2014-03-31

    Over the past two years, Department of Energy’s Building Technologies Office (BTO) has been investigating ways to increase the operating efficiency of the packaged rooftop units (RTUs) in the field. First, by issuing a challenge to the RTU manufactures to increase the integrated energy efficiency ratio (IEER) by 60% over the existing ASHRAE 90.1-2010 standard. Second, by evaluating the performance of an advanced RTU controller that reduces the energy consumption by over 40%. BTO has previously also funded development of a RTU comparison calculator (RTUCC). RTUCC is a web-based tool that provides the user a way to compare energy and cost savings for two units with different efficiencies. However, the RTUCC currently cannot compare savings associated with either the RTU Challenge unit or the advanced RTU controls retrofit. Therefore, BTO has asked PNNL to enhance the tool so building owners can compare energy and savings associated with this new class of products. This document provides the details of the enhancements that are required to support estimating energy savings from use of RTU challenge units or advanced controls on existing RTUs.

  11. [Medical insurance estimation of risks].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dunér, H

    1975-11-01

    The purpose of insurance medicine is to make a prognostic estimate of medical risk-factors in persons who apply for life, health, or accident insurance. Established risk-groups with a calculated average mortality and morbidity form the basis for premium rates and insurance terms. In most cases the applicant is accepted for insurance after a self-assessment of his health. Only around one per cent of the applications are refused, but there are cases in which the premium is raised, temporarily or permanently. It is often a matter of rough estimate, since the knowlege of the long-term prognosis for many diseases is incomplete. The insurance companies' rules for estimate of risk are revised at intervals of three or four years. The estimate of risk as regards life insurance has been gradually liberalised, while the medical conditions for health insurance have become stricter owing to an increase in the claims rate.

  12. At-Risk-of-Poverty Threshold

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Táňa Dvornáková

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available European Statistics on Income and Living Conditions (EU-SILC is a survey on households’ living conditions. The main aim of the survey is to get long-term comparable data on social and economic situation of households. Data collected in the survey are used mainly in connection with the evaluation of income poverty and determinationof at-risk-of-poverty rate. This article deals with the calculation of the at risk-of-poverty threshold based on data from EU-SILC 2009. The main task is to compare two approaches to the computation of at riskof-poverty threshold. The first approach is based on the calculation of the threshold for each country separately,while the second one is based on the calculation of the threshold for all states together. The introduction summarizes common attributes in the calculation of the at-risk-of-poverty threshold, such as disposable household income, equivalised household income. Further, different approaches to both calculations are introduced andadvantages and disadvantages of these approaches are stated. Finally, the at-risk-of-poverty rate calculation is described and comparison of the at-risk-of-poverty rates based on these two different approaches is made.

  13. Development of model for insurance risk management and its application to insurance companies operating in the Serbian market

    OpenAIRE

    Mirjana M. Ilic; Veselin Avdalovic; Milica D. Obadovic

    2011-01-01

    The literature on the topic of risk management in insurance generally separately treat insurance risk and insurance company risk, however such a separate treatment of risk excludes a third type of risk which is defined here, that is the risk of incorrectly calculating insurance risk, which causes uncertainties and disruptions in the operations of an insurance company and its concept of risk management arising from its activities. This paper presents a Model developed for insurance risk manage...

  14. Assessing patients' risk of febrile neutropenia: is there a correlation between physician-assessed risk and model-predicted risk?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lyman, Gary H; Dale, David C; Legg, Jason C; Abella, Esteban; Morrow, Phuong Khanh; Whittaker, Sadie; Crawford, Jeffrey

    2015-08-01

    This study evaluated the correlation between the risk of febrile neutropenia (FN) estimated by physicians and the risk of severe neutropenia or FN predicted by a validated multivariate model in patients with nonmyeloid malignancies receiving chemotherapy. Before patient enrollment, physician and site characteristics were recorded, and physicians self-reported the FN risk at which they would typically consider granulocyte colony-stimulating factor (G-CSF) primary prophylaxis (FN risk intervention threshold). For each patient, physicians electronically recorded their estimated FN risk, orders for G-CSF primary prophylaxis (yes/no), and patient characteristics for model predictions. Correlations between physician-assessed FN risk and model-predicted risk (primary endpoints) and between physician-assessed FN risk and G-CSF orders were calculated. Overall, 124 community-based oncologists registered; 944 patients initiating chemotherapy with intermediate FN risk enrolled. Median physician-assessed FN risk over all chemotherapy cycles was 20.0%, and median model-predicted risk was 17.9%; the correlation was 0.249 (95% CI, 0.179-0.316). The correlation between physician-assessed FN risk and subsequent orders for G-CSF primary prophylaxis (n = 634) was 0.313 (95% CI, 0.135-0.472). Among patients with a physician-assessed FN risk ≥ 20%, 14% did not receive G-CSF orders. G-CSF was not ordered for 16% of patients at or above their physician's self-reported FN risk intervention threshold (median, 20.0%) and was ordered for 21% below the threshold. Physician-assessed FN risk and model-predicted risk correlated weakly; however, there was moderate correlation between physician-assessed FN risk and orders for G-CSF primary prophylaxis. Further research and education on FN risk factors and appropriate G-CSF use are needed.

  15. Managing total corporate electricity/energy market risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The banking industry has developed a tool kit of very useful value at risk techniques for hedging risk, but these techniques must be adapted to the special complexities of the electricity market. This paper starts with a short history of the use of value-at-risk (VAR) techniques in banking risk management and then examines the specific and, in many instances, complex risk management challenges faced by electric companies from the behavior of prices in electricity markets and from the character of generation and electric retailing risks. The third section describes the main methods for making VAR calculations along with an analysis of their suitability for analyzing the risks of electricity portfolios and the case for using profit at risk and downside risk as measures of risk. The final section draws the threads together and explains how to look at managing total corporate electricity market risk, which is a big step toward managing total corporate energy market risk

  16. Breast cancer risk prediction using a clinical risk model and polygenic risk score.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shieh, Yiwey; Hu, Donglei; Ma, Lin; Huntsman, Scott; Gard, Charlotte C; Leung, Jessica W T; Tice, Jeffrey A; Vachon, Celine M; Cummings, Steven R; Kerlikowske, Karla; Ziv, Elad

    2016-10-01

    Breast cancer risk assessment can inform the use of screening and prevention modalities. We investigated the performance of the Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium (BCSC) risk model in combination with a polygenic risk score (PRS) comprised of 83 single nucleotide polymorphisms identified from genome-wide association studies. We conducted a nested case-control study of 486 cases and 495 matched controls within a screening cohort. The PRS was calculated using a Bayesian approach. The contributions of the PRS and variables in the BCSC model to breast cancer risk were tested using conditional logistic regression. Discriminatory accuracy of the models was compared using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). Increasing quartiles of the PRS were positively associated with breast cancer risk, with OR 2.54 (95 % CI 1.69-3.82) for breast cancer in the highest versus lowest quartile. In a multivariable model, the PRS, family history, and breast density remained strong risk factors. The AUROC of the PRS was 0.60 (95 % CI 0.57-0.64), and an Asian-specific PRS had AUROC 0.64 (95 % CI 0.53-0.74). A combined model including the BCSC risk factors and PRS had better discrimination than the BCSC model (AUROC 0.65 versus 0.62, p = 0.01). The BCSC-PRS model classified 18 % of cases as high-risk (5-year risk ≥3 %), compared with 7 % using the BCSC model. The PRS improved discrimination of the BCSC risk model and classified more cases as high-risk. Further consideration of the PRS's role in decision-making around screening and prevention strategies is merited.

  17. Selection of Dispersivity in Groundwater Risk Assessment

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    武晓峰; 唐杰

    2004-01-01

    The Domenico model is used in combination with ASTM E 1739 in a Tier 2 risk assessment of chlorinated organic solvents contaminated groundwater sites to predict potential contaminant concentration in groundwater down-gradient from the point of exposure (POE). A knowledge of the dispersivity parameters is necessary for carrying out this calculation. A constant longitudinal dispersivity of 10 m is often used in analytical and numerical calculation. However, because of the scale effect of dispersion, two other main approaches are currently often used. From the viewpoint of conservative principle in risk assessment, it is necessary to determine which dispersivity data will give a higher predicted concentration, corresponding to a more conservative risk calculation. Generally, it is considered that a smaller dispersivity leads to a higher predicted concentration. This assumption is correct when dispersion is the only natural attenuation factor. However, degradation of commonly encountered chlorinated organic solvents in environment under natural condition has been widely reported. Calculations given in this paper of several representative cases show that a general consideration of the influence of dispersivity on concentration prediction is not always correct when a degradation term is included in the calculation. To give a conservative risk calculation, the scale effect of dispersion is considered. Calculations also show that the dispersivity parameters need to be determined by considering the POE distance from the source, the groundwater velocity, and the degradation rate of the contaminant.

  18. A Risk Radar driven by Internet of intelligences serving for emergency management in community.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Chongfu; Wu, Tong; Renn, Ortwin

    2016-07-01

    Today, most of the commercial risk radars only have the function to show risks, as same as a set of risk matrixes. In this paper, we develop the Internet of intelligences (IOI) to drive a risk radar monitoring dynamic risks for emergency management in community. An IOI scans risks in a community by 4 stages: collecting information and experience about risks; evaluating risk incidents; verifying; and showing risks. Employing the information diffusion method, we optimized to deal with the effective information for calculating risk value. Also, a specific case demonstrates the reliability and practicability of risk radar.

  19. On Calculating Activity Slack in Stochastic Project Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gary Mitchell

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Problem statement: Identifying critical tasks in a project network is easily done when task times are deterministic, but doing so under stochastic task times is problematic. The few methods that have been proposed contain serious drawbacks which lead to identifying critical tasks incorrectly, leaving project managers without the means to (1 identify and rank the most probable sources of project delays, (2 assess the magnitude of each source of schedule risk, and (3 identify which tasks represent the best opportunities for successfully addressing schedule risk? Approach: In this study we considered the problem of identifying the sources of schedule risk in a stochastic project network. We developed general expressions for determining a task’s late starting and ending time distributions. We introduced the concept of stochastic slack and develop a number of metrics that help a project manager directly identify and estimate the magnitude of sources of schedule risk. Finally, we compared critical tasks identified using the activity criticality index to those found using stochastic slack metrics. Results: We have demonstrated that a task may have non-zero probability of negative stochastic slack and that expected total slack for a task may be negative. We also found that while the activity criticality index is effective for calculating the probability that a task is on a critical path, the stochastic slack based metrics discussed in this paper are better predictors of the extent to which a delay in a task will result in a project delay. Conclusion/Recommendations: Project managers should consider using stochastic slack based metrics for assessing project risk and establishing the most likely project schedule outcomes. Given the calculation complexity associated with theoretically exact stochastic slack metrics, effective heuristics are required.

  20. Reliability of Calculated Low-Density Lipoprotein Cholesterol.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meeusen, Jeffrey W; Snozek, Christine L; Baumann, Nikola A; Jaffe, Allan S; Saenger, Amy K

    2015-08-15

    Aggressive low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C)-lowering strategies are recommended for prevention of cardiovascular events in high-risk populations. Guidelines recommend a 30% to 50% reduction in at-risk patients even when LDL-C concentrations are between 70 and 130 mg/dl (1.8 to 3.4 mmol/L). However, calculation of LDL-C by the Friedewald equation is the primary laboratory method for routine LDL-C measurement. We compared the accuracy and reproducibility of calculated LDL-C <130 mg/dl (3.4 mmol/L) to LDL-C measured by β quantification (considered the gold standard method) in 15,917 patients with fasting triglyceride concentrations <400 mg/dl (4.5 mmol/L). Both variation and bias of calculated LDL-C increased at lower values of measured LDL-C. The 95% confidence intervals for a calculated LDL-C of 70 mg/dl (1.8 mmol/L) and 30 mg/dl (0.8 mmol/L) were 60 to 86 mg/dl (1.6 to 2.2 mmol/L) and 24 to 60 mg/dl (0.6 to 1.6 mmol/L), respectively. Previous recommendations have emphasized the requirement for a fasting sample with triglycerides <400 mg/dl (4.5 mmol/L) to calculate LDL-C by the Friedewald equation. However, no recommendations have addressed the appropriate lower reportable limit for calculated LDL-C. In conclusion, calculated LDL-C <30 mg/dl (0.8 mmol/L) should not be reported because of significant deviation from the gold standard measured LDL-C results, and caution is advised when using calculated LDL-CF values <70 mg/dl (1.8 mmol/L) to make treatment decisions.

  1. How to understand low dose risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    It is well established that those who were exposed to ionizing radiation have increased risks of developing malignancies. The magnitude of the risk varies depending on not only the dose but also age at the time of exposure, gender, background incidence rate etc. In the case of atomic bomb survivors, the relative risk of cancer is linearly related to the dose, and the sex averaged relative risk (exposure age is 30, risk calculation is when they reached age 70) is 1.5 at 1 Gy. Because the increased risks below 100 to 200 mGy are too small and not statistically significant, there are arguments in interpreting the risks at the low dose range. (author)

  2. METHODOLOGICAL PROBLEMS OF PRACTICAL RADIOGENIC RISK ESTIMATIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Т. Gubin

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Mathematical ratios were established according to the description of the calculation procedure for the values of the nominal risk coefficient given in the ICRP Recommendations 2007. It is shown that the lifetime radiogenic risk is a linear functional from the distribution of the dose in time with a multiplier descending with age. As a consequence, application of the nominal risk coefficient in the risk calculations is justified in the case when prolonged exposure is practically evenly distributed in time, and gives a significant deviation at a single exposure. When using the additive model of radiogenic risk proposed in the UNSCEAR Report 2006 for solid cancers, this factor is almost linearly decreasing with the age, which is convenient for its practical application.

  3. Risk Assessment Study for Storage Explosive

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. S. Azhar

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available In Malaysia, there has been rapidly increasing usage in amount of explosives due to widely expansion in quarrying and mining industries. The explosives are usually stored in the storage where the safety precaution had given high attention. As the storage of large quantity of explosive can be hazardous to workers and nearby residents in the events of accidental denotation of explosives, a risk assessment study for storage explosive (magazine had been carried out. Risk assessment study had been conducted in Kimanis Quarry Sdn. Bhd, located in Sabah. Risk assessment study had been carried out with the identification of hazards and failure scenarios and estimation of the failure frequency of occurrence. Analysis of possible consequences of failure and the effects of blast waves due to the explosion was evaluated. The risk had been estimated in term of fatalities and eardrum rupture to the workers and public. The average individual voluntary risk for fatality to the workers at the quarry is calculated to be 5.75 x 10-6 per person per year, which is much lower than the acceptable level. Eardrum rupture risk calculated to be 3.15 x 10-6 per person per year for voluntary risk. There is no involuntary risk found for fatality but for eardrum rupture it was calculated to be 6.98 x 10-8 per person per year, as given by Asian Development Bank.

  4. Calculation Methods for Wallenius’ Noncentral Hypergeometric Distribution

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fog, Agner

    2008-01-01

    conditional distribution of independent binomial variates given their sum. No reliable calculation method for Wallenius' noncentral hypergeometric distribution has hitherto been described in the literature. Several new methods for calculating probabilities from Wallenius' noncentral hypergeometric...

  5. Dynamics Calculation of Travel Wave Tube

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2011-01-01

    During the dynamics calculating of the travel tube, we must obtain the field map in the tube. The field map can be affected by not only the beam loading, but also the attenuation coefficient. The calculation of the attenuation coefficient

  6. A New Approach for Calculating Vacuum Susceptibility

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    宗红石; 平加伦; 顾建中

    2004-01-01

    Based on the Dyson-Schwinger approach, we propose a new method for calculating vacuum susceptibilities. As an example, the vector vacuum susceptibility is calculated. A comparison with the results of the previous approaches is presented.

  7. Ascertainment and comparison of risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The author reviews the major problems arising from a comparison and an ascertainment of risks. Extensive scattering shown in the results from ten different studies reflect statistical inadequacies as well as differences in methodological approach. The controversy over renewable energy sources illustrates how the use of different criteria produce different results. Each source of energy (except coal) has practically the same number of lost working days as well as deaths per worker unit, but the risks are lower using nuclear energy as opposed to other sources if calculated pro unit or produced energy. Despite considerable uncertainty over the consequences of nuclear accidents, comparative nuclear energy shows up very favourably. (AF)

  8. Pressure Vessel Calculations for VVER-440 Reactors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hordósy, G.; Hegyi, Gy.; Keresztúri, A.; Maráczy, Cs.; Temesvári, E.; Vértes, P.; Zsolnay, É.

    2003-06-01

    Monte Carlo calculations were performed for a selected cycle of the Paks NPP Unit II to test a computational model. In the model the source term was calculated by the core design code KARATE and the neutron transport calculations were performed by the MCNP. Different forms of the source specification were examined. The calculated results were compared with measurements and in most cases fairly good agreement was found.

  9. The Application of Asymmetric Liquidity Risk Measure in Modelling the Risk of Investment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Garsztka Przemysław

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The article analyses the relationship between investment risk (as measured by the variance of returns or standard deviation of returns and liquidity risk. The paper presents a method for calculating a new measure of liquidity risk, based on the characteristic line. In addition, it is checked what is the impact of liquidity risk to the volatility of daily returns. To describe this relationship dynamic econometric models were used. It was found that there was an econometric relationship between the proposed measure liquidity risk and the variance of returns.

  10. Credit Risk and Disaster Risk

    OpenAIRE

    Gourio, François

    2013-01-01

    Macroeconomic models with financial frictions typically imply that the excess return on a well-diversified portfolio of corporate bonds is close to zero. In contrast, the empirical finance literature documents large and time-varying risk premia in the corporate bond market (the "credit spread puzzle"). This paper introduces a parsimonious real business cycle model where firms issue defaultable debt and equity to finance investment. The mix between debt and equity is determined by a trade-off ...

  11. Risk Factors of Entry in Out-of-Home Care

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ejrnæs, Mette; Ejrnæs, Niels Morten; Frederiksen, Signe

    2011-01-01

    . The mother’s characteristics are more important risk factors than the corresponding risk factors of the father. The results, the applied method and the epidemiological inspired analysis make an opportunity to discuss the central concepts and methods of calculation of statistical association, risk, prediction...

  12. Verbal risk in communicating risk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Walters, J.C. [Northern Arizona Univ., Flagstaff, AZ (United States). School of Communication; Reno, H.W. [EG and G Idaho, Inc., Idaho Falls, ID (United States). Idaho National Engineering Lab.

    1993-03-01

    When persons in the waste management industry have a conversation concerning matters of the industry, thoughts being communicated are understood among those in the industry. However, when persons in waste management communicate with those outside the industry, communication may suffer simply because of poor practices such as the use of jargon, euphemisms, acronyms, abbreviations, language usage, not knowing audience, and public perception. This paper deals with ways the waste management industry can communicate risk to the public without obfuscating issues. The waste management industry should feel obligated to communicate certain meanings within specific contexts and, then, if the context changes, should not put forth a new, more appropriate meaning to the language already used. Communication of the waste management industry does not have to be provisional. The authors suggest verbal risks in communicating risk can be reduced significantly or eliminated by following a few basic communication principles. The authors make suggestions and give examples of ways to improve communication with the general public by avoiding or reducing jargon, euphemisms, and acronyms; knowing the audience; avoiding presumptive knowledge held by the audience; and understanding public perception of waste management issues.

  13. 40 CFR 89.207 - Credit calculation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 20 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Credit calculation. 89.207 Section 89... Trading Provisions § 89.207 Credit calculation. (a) Requirements for calculating NO X credits from Tier 1 engines rated at or above 37 kW. (1) For each participating engine family, emission credits (positive...

  14. Thermohydraulic calculation of WWER-type NPP

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Technique of thermohydraulic calculation of the WWER-type NPP in unsteady processes is described. Effective algorithm for solving hydrodynamics equations without regard for acoustic effects permitting to use enough large time integration step is given. Calculation of two-dimensional temperature fields in fuel element is considered. Method for calculating a pressurizer, steam generators and pumps is described as well

  15. 10 CFR 766.102 - Calculation methodology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 10 Energy 4 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Calculation methodology. 766.102 Section 766.102 Energy... ASSESSMENT OF DOMESTIC UTILITIES Procedures for Special Assessment § 766.102 Calculation methodology. (a) Calculation of Domestic Utilities' Annual Assessment Ratio to the Fund. Domestic utilities shall be...

  16. 7 CFR 760.1106 - Payment calculation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 7 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Payment calculation. 760.1106 Section 760.1106 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued) FARM SERVICE AGENCY, DEPARTMENT OF... Payment calculation. (a) Preliminary, unadjusted LCP payments are calculated for a producer by...

  17. 7 CFR 1416.104 - Payment calculation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 10 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Payment calculation. 1416.104 Section 1416.104 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued) COMMODITY CREDIT CORPORATION, DEPARTMENT... PROGRAMS Livestock Compensation Program § 1416.104 Payment calculation. (a) LCP payments are calculated...

  18. 7 CFR 1416.504 - Payment calculation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 10 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Payment calculation. 1416.504 Section 1416.504 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued) COMMODITY CREDIT CORPORATION, DEPARTMENT... PROGRAMS Tropical Fruit Disaster Program § 1416.504 Payment calculation. (a) Payments are calculated...

  19. 40 CFR 1065.650 - Emission calculations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 32 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Emission calculations. 1065.650 Section 1065.650 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) AIR POLLUTION CONTROLS ENGINE-TESTING PROCEDURES Calculations and Data Requirements § 1065.650 Emission calculations....

  20. Three-dimensional rf structure calculations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The calculation of three-dimensional rf structures is rapidly approaching adolescence, after having been in its infancy for the last four years. This paper will show the kinds of calculations that are currently being performed in the frequency domain and is a companion paper to one in which time-domain calculations are described. 13 refs., 14 figs

  1. Quantum Transport Calculations Using Periodic Boundary Conditions

    OpenAIRE

    Wang, Lin-Wang

    2004-01-01

    An efficient new method is presented to calculate the quantum transports using periodic boundary conditions. This method allows the use of conventional ground state ab initio programs without big changes. The computational effort is only a few times of a normal ground state calculations, thus is makes accurate quantum transport calculations for large systems possible.

  2. 47 CFR 1.1623 - Probability calculation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 47 Telecommunication 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Probability calculation. 1.1623 Section 1.1623... Mass Media Services General Procedures § 1.1623 Probability calculation. (a) All calculations shall be computed to no less than three significant digits. Probabilities will be truncated to the number...

  3. Risk analysis: toward a standard method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The wide range of claims about the comparative risks of energy technologies is due as much to the immature development of the risk-assessment trade as to the scarcity of health and accident statistics. The risks of different systems often are not only compared inconsistently, but are calculated in a manner inappropriate to the decisions being made about energy technologies. Without a carefully constructed and agreed-upon framework for tabulating risks, it is possible to come to nearly any conclusion about comparative hazards. However, adherence to a few straightforward rules (some borrowed from financial accounting) is sufficient to ensure consistency

  4. Balancing Risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nygaard, Lene; Rossen, Camilla Blach; Buus, Niels

    2015-01-01

    This study explored how eight pregnant women diagnosed with depression managed the decision whether or not to take antidepressants during pregnancy. In total, 11 interviews were conducted and analysed by means of constructivist grounded theory. The major category constructed was Balancing risk......, with two minor categories: Assessing depression and antidepressants and Evaluating the impact of significant others. The participants tried to make the safest decision, taking all aspects of their life into consideration. They described successful decision-making in the context of managing social norms...

  5. Risk Probabilities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rojas-Nandayapa, Leonardo

    Tail probabilities of sums of heavy-tailed random variables are of a major importance in various branches of Applied Probability, such as Risk Theory, Queueing Theory, Financial Management, and are subject to intense research nowadays. To understand their relevance one just needs to think...... of insurance companies facing losses due to natural disasters, banks seeking protection against huge losses, failures in expensive and sophisticated systems or loss of valuable information in electronic systems. The main difficulty when dealing with this kind of problems is the unavailability of a closed...

  6. Publishing Risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mogens Steffensen

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available “What is complicated is not necessarily insightful and what is insightful is not necessarily complicated: Risks welcomes simple manuscripts that contribute with insight, outlook, understanding and overview”—a quote from the first editorial of this journal [1]. Good articles are not characterized by their level of complication but by their level of imagination, innovation, and power of penetration. Creativity sessions and innovative tasks are most elegant and powerful when they are delicately simple. This is why the articles you most remember are not the complicated ones that you struggled to digest, but the simpler ones you enjoyed swallowing.

  7. A novel programme to evaluate and communicate 10-year risk of CHD reduces predicted risk and improves patients' modifiable risk factor profile

    OpenAIRE

    Benner, J S; Erhardt, L.; Flammer, M; Moller, R A; Rajicic, N; Changela, K; Yunis, C; Cherry, S B; Gaciong, Z; Johnson, E. S.; Sturkenboom, M.C.J.M.; García-Puig, J; Girerd, X

    2008-01-01

    Aims We assessed whether a novel programme to evaluate/communicate predicted coronary heart disease (CHD) risk could lower patients' predicted Framingham CHD risk vs. usual care. Methods The Risk Evaluation and Communication Health Outcomes and Utilization Trial was a prospective, controlled, cluster-randomised trial in nine European countries, among patients at moderate cardiovascular risk. Following baseline assessments, physicians in the intervention group calculated patients' predicted CH...

  8. Melanoma risk prediction models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nikolić Jelena

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Background/Aim. The lack of effective therapy for advanced stages of melanoma emphasizes the importance of preventive measures and screenings of population at risk. Identifying individuals at high risk should allow targeted screenings and follow-up involving those who would benefit most. The aim of this study was to identify most significant factors for melanoma prediction in our population and to create prognostic models for identification and differentiation of individuals at risk. Methods. This case-control study included 697 participants (341 patients and 356 controls that underwent extensive interview and skin examination in order to check risk factors for melanoma. Pairwise univariate statistical comparison was used for the coarse selection of the most significant risk factors. These factors were fed into logistic regression (LR and alternating decision trees (ADT prognostic models that were assessed for their usefulness in identification of patients at risk to develop melanoma. Validation of the LR model was done by Hosmer and Lemeshow test, whereas the ADT was validated by 10-fold cross-validation. The achieved sensitivity, specificity, accuracy and AUC for both models were calculated. The melanoma risk score (MRS based on the outcome of the LR model was presented. Results. The LR model showed that the following risk factors were associated with melanoma: sunbeds (OR = 4.018; 95% CI 1.724- 9.366 for those that sometimes used sunbeds, solar damage of the skin (OR = 8.274; 95% CI 2.661-25.730 for those with severe solar damage, hair color (OR = 3.222; 95% CI 1.984-5.231 for light brown/blond hair, the number of common naevi (over 100 naevi had OR = 3.57; 95% CI 1.427-8.931, the number of dysplastic naevi (from 1 to 10 dysplastic naevi OR was 2.672; 95% CI 1.572-4.540; for more than 10 naevi OR was 6.487; 95%; CI 1.993-21.119, Fitzpatricks phototype and the presence of congenital naevi. Red hair, phototype I and large congenital naevi were

  9. Indicators for Disaster Risk and Risk Management: Programme for Latin-America and The Caribbean: Belize

    OpenAIRE

    Inter-American Development Bank (IDB)

    2011-01-01

    This documents contains Disaster Risk and Disaster Management indicators for Belize calculated according to the methodology developed by the Bank. This System of Indicators had three specific objectives: i) improvement in the use and presentation of information on risk. This assists policymakers in identifying investment priorities to reduce risk (such as prevention and mitigation measures), and directs the post disaster recovery process; ii) to provide a way to measure key elements of vulner...

  10. RISK-XLR: A Microcomputer-Based Genetic Risk Program for X-Linked Recessive Traits

    OpenAIRE

    Rivas, Marian L.; Martens, Paula R.

    1987-01-01

    A computer program, RISK-XLR, which calculates genetic risk for carrier status of a Mendelian X-linked recessive condition has been written for the Macintosh series of microcomputers. The program, which incorporates family information (number of normal sons, daughters and granddaughters with normal sons, etc.), mutation rate, fitness and carrier test results in the assessment of genetic risk, utilizes Bayesian conditional probability. “User-friendly” and “error trapping” features have been in...

  11. Risk Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morring, Frank, Jr.

    2004-01-01

    A National Academies panel says the Hubble Space Telescope is too valuable ;or gamblingon a long-shot robotic mission to extend its service life, and urges Directly contradicting Administrator Sean O'Keefe, who killed a planned fifth shuttle servicing mission to the telescope on grounds it was too dangerous for a human crew in the post-Challenger environment, the expert committee found that upgrades to shuttle safety actually should make it less hazardous to fly to the telescope than it was before Columbia was lost. Risks of a telescope-servicing mission are only marginally greater than the planned missions to the International Space Station (ISS) O'Keefe has authorized, the panel found. After comparing those risks to the dangers inherent in trying to develop a complex space robot in the 39 months remaining in the Hubble s estimated service life, the panel opted for the human mission to save one of the major achievements of the American space program, in the words of Louis J. Lanzerotti, its chairman.

  12. Cardiovascular risk score in Rheumatoid Arthritis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wagan, Abrar Ahmed; Mahmud, Tafazzul E Haque; Rasheed, Aflak; Zafar, Zafar Ali; Rehman, Ata ur; Ali, Amjad

    2016-01-01

    Objective: To determine the 10-year Cardiovascular risk score with QRISK-2 and Framingham risk calculators in Rheumatoid Arthritis and Non Rheumatoid Arthritis subjects and asses the usefulness of QRISK-2 and Framingham calculators in both groups. Methods: During the study 106 RA and 106 Non RA patients age and sex matched participants were enrolled from outpatient department. Demographic data and questions regarding other study parameters were noted. After 14 hours of fasting 5 ml of venous blood was drawn for Cholesterol and HDL levels, laboratory tests were performed on COBAS c III (ROCHE). QRISK-2 and Framingham risk calculators were used to get individual 10-year CVD risk score. Results: In this study the mean age of RA group was (45.1±9.5) for Non RA group (43.7±8.2), with female gender as common. The mean predicted 10-year score with QRISK-2 calculator in RA group (14.2±17.1%) and Non RA group was (13.2±19.0%) with (p-value 0.122). The 10-year score with Framingham risk score in RA group was (12.9±10.4%) and Non RA group was (8.9±8.7%) with (p-value 0.001). In RA group QRISK-2 (24.5%) and FRS (31.1%) cases with predicted score were in higher risk category. The maximum agreement scores between both calculators was observed in both groups (Kappa = 0.618 RA Group; Kappa = 0.671 Non RA Group). Conclusion: QRISK-2 calculator is more appropriate as it takes RA, ethnicity, CKD, and Atrial fibrillation as factors in risk assessment score. PMID:27375684

  13. Risk and Returns to Education

    OpenAIRE

    Jeffrey Brown; Chichun Fang; Francisco Gomes

    2012-01-01

    We analyze the returns to education in a life-cycle framework that incorporates risk preferences, earnings volatility (including unemployment), and a progressive income tax and social insurance system. We show that such a framework significantly reduces the measured gains from education relative to simple present-value calculations, although the gains remain significant. For example, for a range of preference parameters, we find that individuals should be willing to pay 300 to 500 (200 to 250...

  14. Women referred for occupational risk assessment in pregnancy have no increased risk of adverse obstetric outcomes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bidstrup, Signe Brøker; Kaerlev, Linda; Thulstrup, Ane Marie;

    2015-01-01

    INTRODUCTION: Our aim was to study the association between pregnant women's referral status for occupational risk assessment, and their risk of preterm delivery (.... Logistic regression was used to calculate odds ratios (OR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI). Calculations were adjusted for the mother's age at delivery, parity, ethnicity, socioeconomic status, smoking, and in supplementary analyses for year of birth. RESULTS: Referred women gave birth to children....../or that the occupational risk assessment and counselling of pregnant women are preventing these selected adverse pregnancy outcomes. FUNDING: The Research Unit at Department of Occupational and Environmental Medicine at Bispebjerg Hospital supported the study financially. TRIAL REGISTRATION: not relevant. The study...

  15. Women referred for occupational risk assessment in pregnancy have no increased risk of adverse obstetric outcomes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bidstrup, Signe Brøker; Kaerlev, Linda; Thulstrup, Ane Marie;

    2015-01-01

    INTRODUCTION: Our aim was to study the association between pregnant women's referral status for occupational risk assessment, and their risk of preterm delivery (.../or that the occupational risk assessment and counselling of pregnant women are preventing these selected adverse pregnancy outcomes. FUNDING: The Research Unit at Department of Occupational and Environmental Medicine at Bispebjerg Hospital supported the study financially. TRIAL REGISTRATION: not relevant. The study....... Logistic regression was used to calculate odds ratios (OR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI). Calculations were adjusted for the mother's age at delivery, parity, ethnicity, socioeconomic status, smoking, and in supplementary analyses for year of birth. RESULTS: Referred women gave birth to children...

  16. Lunar Landing Operational Risk Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mattenberger, Chris; Putney, Blake; Rust, Randy; Derkowski, Brian

    2010-01-01

    Characterizing the risk of spacecraft goes beyond simply modeling equipment reliability. Some portions of the mission require complex interactions between system elements that can lead to failure without an actual hardware fault. Landing risk is currently the least characterized aspect of the Altair lunar lander and appears to result from complex temporal interactions between pilot, sensors, surface characteristics and vehicle capabilities rather than hardware failures. The Lunar Landing Operational Risk Model (LLORM) seeks to provide rapid and flexible quantitative insight into the risks driving the landing event and to gauge sensitivities of the vehicle to changes in system configuration and mission operations. The LLORM takes a Monte Carlo based approach to estimate the operational risk of the Lunar Landing Event and calculates estimates of the risk of Loss of Mission (LOM) - Abort Required and is Successful, Loss of Crew (LOC) - Vehicle Crashes or Cannot Reach Orbit, and Success. The LLORM is meant to be used during the conceptual design phase to inform decision makers transparently of the reliability impacts of design decisions, to identify areas of the design which may require additional robustness, and to aid in the development and flow-down of requirements.

  17. Fuzzy-probabilistic calculations of water-balance uncertainty

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Faybishenko, B.

    2009-10-01

    Hydrogeological systems are often characterized by imprecise, vague, inconsistent, incomplete, or subjective information, which may limit the application of conventional stochastic methods in predicting hydrogeologic conditions and associated uncertainty. Instead, redictions and uncertainty analysis can be made using uncertain input parameters expressed as probability boxes, intervals, and fuzzy numbers. The objective of this paper is to present the theory for, and a case study as an application of, the fuzzyprobabilistic approach, ombining probability and possibility theory for simulating soil water balance and assessing associated uncertainty in the components of a simple waterbalance equation. The application of this approach is demonstrated using calculations with the RAMAS Risk Calc code, to ssess the propagation of uncertainty in calculating potential evapotranspiration, actual evapotranspiration, and infiltration-in a case study at the Hanford site, Washington, USA. Propagation of uncertainty into the results of water-balance calculations was evaluated by hanging he types of models of uncertainty incorporated into various input parameters. The results of these fuzzy-probabilistic calculations are compared to the conventional Monte Carlo simulation approach and estimates from field observations at the Hanford site.

  18. 人工掘进顶管穿越沙基公路总顶力确定和施工风险规避%The Total Jacking Force to Calculate and Construction Risk Averse For Manual Pipe Jacking Through Sand Layers Road

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    李国明; 任哲; 杨帆

    2016-01-01

    人工掘进顶管穿越沙基公路施工易出现总顶力计算错误、后背墙倾斜、工作面坍塌等问题,从而造成顶管施工失败,应结合工程实例,探讨适于人工掘进顶管穿越沙基公路的总顶力计算公式,对于后背墙倾斜、工作面坍塌等施工难点提出具体的工程措施。通过理论计算与工程实例得出结论,国家标准总顶力计算公式适于人工掘进顶管总顶力计算;人工掘进顶管穿越沙基公路的穿越长度不宜大于26 m;后背墙、工具管的设计对于人工掘进顶管穿越沙基公路施工成败至关重要。%The total jacking force calculation error, backwall tilted, working face landslide and so on which caused by the manual pipe jacking through sand layers road construction fail-ure. Combined with construction, to discuss the calculation formula of the total jacking force which is suitable for construction of manual pipe jacking through sand layers road;En-gineering difficulties such as backwall tilted, working face landslide and so on, engineering measures is provided, and it can be referred to engineering practices. According to analysis, the calculation formula of the total jacking force which is adopted by the national standard is suitable for construction of manual pipe jacking through sand layers road;The total length should be less than 26 m while manual pipe jacking through sand layers road;Design of back-wall and tool pipe for manual pipe jacking through sand layers road are crucial to Success of engineering construction.

  19. NASA's Risk Management System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perera, Jeevan S.

    2011-01-01

    Leadership is key to success. Phased-approach for implementation of risk management is necessary. Risk management system will be simple, accessible and promote communication of information to all relevant stakeholders for optimal resource allocation and risk mitigation. Risk management should be used by all team members to manage risks -- risk office personnel. Each group is assigned Risk Integrators who are facilitators for effective risk management. Risks will be managed at the lowest-level feasible, elevate only those risks that require coordination or management from above. Risk reporting and communication is an essential element of risk management and will combine both qualitative and quantitative elements. Risk informed decision making should be introduced to all levels of management. Provide necessary checks and balances to insure that risks are caught/identified and dealt with in a timely manner. Many supporting tools, processes & training must be deployed for effective risk management implementation. Process improvement must be included in the risk processes.

  20. Shuttle Risk Progression: Use of the Shuttle Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) to Show Reliability Growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamlin, Teri L.

    2011-01-01

    It is important to the Space Shuttle Program (SSP), as well as future manned spaceflight programs, to understand the early mission risk and progression of risk as the program gains insights into the integrated vehicle through flight. The risk progression is important to the SSP as part of the documentation of lessons learned. The risk progression is important to future programs to understand reliability growth and the first flight risk. This analysis uses the knowledge gained from 30 years of operational flights and the current Shuttle PRA to calculate the risk of Loss of Crew and Vehicle (LOCV) at significant milestones beginning with the first flight. Key flights were evaluated based upon historical events and significant re-designs. The results indicated that the Shuttle risk tends to follow a step function as opposed to following a traditional reliability growth pattern where risk exponentially improves with each flight. In addition, it shows that risk can increase due to trading safety margin for increased performance or due to external events. Due to the risk drivers not being addressed, the risk did not improve appreciably during the first 25 flights. It was only after significant events occurred such as Challenger and Columbia, where the risk drivers were apparent, that risk was significantly improved. In addition, this paper will show that the SSP has reduced the risk of LOCV by almost an order of magnitude. It is easy to look back afte r 30 years and point to risks that are now obvious, however; the key is to use this knowledge to benefit other programs which are in their infancy stages. One lesson learned from the SSP is understanding risk drivers are essential in order to considerably reduce risk. This will enable the new program to focus time and resources on identifying and reducing the significant risks. A comprehensive PRA, similar to that of the Shuttle PRA, is an effective tool quantifying risk drivers if support from all of the stakeholders is

  1. Managing risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The three principles to guide regulating authorities are: Risks shall be managed to maximize the total expected net benefit to society; The safety benefit to be promoted is quality-adjusted life expectancy; Decisions for the public in regard to health and safety must be open and apply across the entire range of hazards to life and health. Based on the principle that excessive spending on health and safety, or lack of necessary development, may cause poverty and thereby actually decrease (adjusted) life expectancy, the author has developed a Life Product Index which gives comparable results to the Human Development Index promoted by the United Nations Development Program. These two social indicators can be used for purposes such as project evaluation, choosing between alternative technologies, or evaluation of health and safety programs

  2. Living with risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Personal risk estimation is discussed under the following headings: history and background of risk study, the nature and measurement of risk, the main causes of death, major risk factors (smoking, alcohol and other drugs, diet), occupational risks, transport, risks in the home, recreational risks, medicine and surgery, natural disasters, chemical risks, the perception, acceptability and management of risk, and risks and energy production. The latter chapter includes consideration of comparative risks in electricity generation. The extraction of fuel for, construction and operation of nuclear power stations is discussed, including references to Sellafield, leukemia clustering, and the Three Mile Island and Chernobyl disasters. (UK)

  3. Risk of transporting spent nuclear fuel by truck

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The risk methodology used to evaluate the risk in shipping spent fuel includes: 1) a description of the spent fuel transport system, 2) identification of potential release sequences, 3) evaluation of the probabilities and consequences of the releases, and 4) calculation and assessment of the risk. The system description includes projected industry characteristics, amounts to be shipped, shipping package descriptions, material characteristics, transport mode, transport routes used and weather and population distribution information. Release sequences are identified by fault tree analysis tehniques. Releases are evaluated using package failure data, normal transport and transport accident environment data and mathematical models for material dispersion and resultant health effects. This information is combined to calculate the shipping system risk which is compared to other known risks. The data may be further analyzed to determine the primary contributors to the risk and identify possible methods for reducing the risk, if the current risk level is judged by society to be unacceptable

  4. Project Risk Management Phases

    OpenAIRE

    Claudiu-George BOCEAN

    2008-01-01

    Risk management is the human activity which integrates recognition of risk, risk assessment, developing strategies to manage it, and mitigation of risk using managerial resources. Notwithstanding the domain of activities where they are conducted, projects often entail risks, and risk management has been widely recognized as a success factor in project management. Following a concept clarification on project risk management, this paper presents a generic list steps in the risk management proce...

  5. Coaching and risk management

    OpenAIRE

    Vladimír Štípek

    2008-01-01

    The article deals with the problems of risk management and with the questions of coaching in various areas of activities of people. Problems of management and prevention of risk is very extensive. It includes for instance technological risk, financial risk, project risk, business risk, risk of environment protection etc. Coaching means the method of optimisation of utilisation of human potential. The metod of coaching in the area of risk management increase effectiveness of methods of decreas...

  6. Comparative Risk Aversion under Background Risk Revisited

    OpenAIRE

    Masamitsu Ohnishi; Yusuke Osaki

    2010-01-01

    This paper determines a new sufficient condition of the (von Neumann-Morgenstern) utility function that preserves comparative risk aversion under background risk. It is the single crossing condition of risk aversion. Because this condition requires monotonicity in the local sense, it may satisfy the U-shaped risk aversion observed in the recent empirical literature.

  7. Risk management marketing seller

    OpenAIRE

    L.I. Kucher; M.T. Betz

    2011-01-01

    Defined by the authors interpretation of the nature of risk, described conditions of emerging risks, with emphasis on risk identification phase of marketing research and risk measurement process and the system of commodity risk management policy on the criteria of quality customer service and circuit analysis of chances - risks of the enterprise in the formation of the elements of commercial policy.

  8. Risk management marketing seller

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L.I. Kucher

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Defined by the authors interpretation of the nature of risk, described conditions of emerging risks, with emphasis on risk identification phase of marketing research and risk measurement process and the system of commodity risk management policy on the criteria of quality customer service and circuit analysis of chances - risks of the enterprise in the formation of the elements of commercial policy.

  9. Argosy 4 - A programme for lattice calculations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This report contains a detailed description of the methods of calculation used in the Argosy 4 computer programme, and of the input requirements and printed results produced by the programme. An outline of the physics of the Argosy method is given. Section 2 describes the lattice calculation, including the burn up calculation, section 3 describes the control rod calculation and section 4 the reflector calculation. In these sections the detailed equations solved by the programme are given. In section 5 input requirements are given, and in section 6 the printed output obtained from an Argosy calculation is described. In section 7 are noted the principal differences between Argosy 4 and earlier versions of the Argosy programme

  10. Review of the current status of radiation risk estimates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This report reviews the current status of radiation risk estimation for low linear energy transfer radiation. Recent statements by various national and international organisations regarding risk estimates are critically discussed. The recently published revised population risk estimates from the study of Japanese bomb survivors are also reviewed and used with some unpublished data from Japan to calculate risk figures for a general work force. (author)

  11. Financing and risk management of investments in mining sector

    OpenAIRE

    Hashemi, Seyedmajid

    2013-01-01

    ABSTRACT: This study aims for investigating the process of mining investments and calculating the level of risk to which mining companies are exposed. As a mining firm gets involved in a project, there are many risks to be assessed including environmental, social and reputational risks. Therefore, the presence of a sustainable development framework in the mining sector helps to consider all dimensions of mining projects in order to mitigate the risk exposure. As undeveloped mineral resour...

  12. Multilinguals’ language choice for mental calculation

    OpenAIRE

    Dewaele, Jean-Marc

    2007-01-01

    The present study investigates self-reported language choice for mental calculations among 1,454 adult multilinguals from a variety of linguistic, social and ethnic backgrounds. As mental calculation is a complex cognitive operation involving both language-dependent and language independent processes, we sought to establish a baseline of first language (L1) or foreign language(s) (LX) use for mental calculation and identify the factors that influence multilinguals’ choice of...

  13. Comparison of methods for calculating water erosion

    OpenAIRE

    Svobodová, Pavlína

    2011-01-01

    Bachelor thesis presents a comparison of methods for calculating water erosion. The aim is to summarize available evidence concerning the problems of water erosion. There are presented some methods how to calculate average annual erosion of soils, and selected models for calculating the erosion immediately. There are also listed possible erosion control measures through which we can at least slow the effects of erosion, rather than stop completely.

  14. Calculation of plasma characteristics of the sun

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Muhammad Abbas Bari; Zhong Jia-Yong; Chen Miu; Zhao Jing; Zhang Jie

    2006-01-01

    The ionization level and free electron density of most abundant elements (C, N, O, Mg, Al, Si, S, and Fe) in the sun are calculated from the centre of the sun to the surface of the photosphere. The model and computations are made under the assumption of local thermodynamic equilibrium (LTE). The Saha equation has been used to calculate the ionization level of elements and the electron density. Temperature values for calculations along the solar radius are taken from referebces.

  15. Some Calculations for Cold Fusion Superheavy Elements

    OpenAIRE

    X. H. Zhong; Li, L.; Ning, P. Z.

    2004-01-01

    The Q value and optimal exciting energy of the hypothetical superheavy nuclei in cold fusion reaction are calculated with relativistic mean field model and semiemperical shell model mass equation(SSME) and the validity of the two models is tested. The fusion barriers are also calculated with two different models and reasonable results are obtained. The calculations can give useful references for the experiments in the superheavy nuclei synthesized in cold fusion reactions.

  16. Handbook for the calculation of reactor protections

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This note constitutes the first edition of a Handbook for the calculation of reactor protections. This handbook makes it possible to calculate simply the different neutron and gamma fluxes and consequently, to fix the minimum quantities of materials necessary under general safety conditions both for the personnel and for the installations. It contains a certain amount of nuclear data, calculation methods, and constants corresponding to the present state of our knowledge. (authors)

  17. Dynamic calculations of pressurized water reactor internals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A mathematical model is briefly described for the calculation of oscillations in the WWER-440 reactor internals. The model was developed for improved safety of the type of reactors. It allows calculating vibrations resistance of reactor components, mainly during accidents, such as loss of coolant accidents. Some results are given of the calculation of forces acting in the rupture of the reactor inlet and outlet pipes. (Z.M.)

  18. Indicators of Disaster Risk and Risk Management

    OpenAIRE

    Omar D. Cardona

    2005-01-01

    This document is the summary report of the IDB-sponsored system of disaster risk and risk management indicators presented at the World Conference on Disaster Reduction in Kobe, Japan, 2005. The indices estimate disaster risk loss, distribution, vulnerability and management for 12 countries in Latin America and the Caribbean. The objective of this program is to facilitate access to relevant information on disaster risk and risk management by national decision-makers, thus making possible the i...

  19. Default Risk and Risk Averse International Investors

    OpenAIRE

    Lizarazo, Sandra

    2010-01-01

    This paper develops a quantitative model of debt and default for small open economies that interact with risk averse international investors. The model developed here extends the recent work on the analysis of endogenous default risk to the case in which international investors are risk averse agents with decreasing absolute risk aversion (DARA). By incorporating risk averse investors who trade with a single emerging economy, the present model o ers two main improvements over the standard cas...

  20. Risk assessment and risk transfer from an insurerś point of view

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ebner, G.

    2009-04-01

    Risk, a word that causes a lot of associations in human brains. Many of us don't like risks. Since hundreds of years insurance is the most common way to get rid of the financial consequences when risks convert to damages. This article deals with commercial risks and the possibilities of risk transfer, an important task within the field of risk management. For commercial entities it is very important to transfer risks, threatening the competitiveness or even worse the existence of a company. At the beginning of insurance it was more the less a bet between merchants and rich people. Later on mutual societies were taking place. Today we see a complex insurance industry with insurers, reinsurers, self insuring possibilities via captives and much more. This complex system, with all the different ways to deal with risk transfer requires a professional risk assessment! Risk assessment is based on knowledge about the threatened assets, the likelihood that they will be damaged, the threats and the possibilities to protect these assets. Assets may be tangible or intangible. Assessing risks is not a precise calculation that delivers a result without any doubt. But insurers and insured need a basis to fix a premium, both of them can agree. This contribution will present a system to assess risks and to find the right risk-transfer-premiums.

  1. Pile Load Capacity – Calculation Methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wrana Bogumił

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The article is a review of the current problems of the foundation pile capacity calculations. The article considers the main principles of pile capacity calculations presented in Eurocode 7 and other methods with adequate explanations. Two main methods are presented: α – method used to calculate the short-term load capacity of piles in cohesive soils and β – method used to calculate the long-term load capacity of piles in both cohesive and cohesionless soils. Moreover, methods based on cone CPTu result are presented as well as the pile capacity problem based on static tests.

  2. The conundrum of calculating carbon footprints

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Strobel, Bjarne W.; Erichsen, Anders Christian; Gausset, Quentin

    2016-01-01

    A pre-condition for reducing global warming is to minimise the emission of greenhouse gasses (GHGs). A common approach to informing people about the link between behaviour and climate change rests on developing GHG calculators that quantify the ‘carbon footprint’ of a product, a sector or an actor....... There is, however, an abundance of GHG calculators that rely on very different premises and give very different estimates of carbon footprints. In this chapter, we compare and analyse the main principles of calculating carbon footprints, and discuss how calculators can inform (or misinform) people who wish...

  3. Surface Tension Calculation of Undercooled Alloys

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2001-01-01

    Based on the Butler equation and extrapolated thermodynamic data of undercooled alloys from those of liquid stable alloys, a method for surface tension calculation of undercooled alloys is proposed. The surface tensions of liquid stable and undercooled Ni-Cu (xNi=0.42) and Ni-Fe (xNi=0.3 and 0.7) alloys are calculated using STCBE (Surface Tension Calculation based on Butler Equation) program. The agreement between calculated values and experimental data is good enough, and the temperature dependence of the surface tension can be reasonable down to 150-200 K under the liquid temperature of the alloys.

  4. Dysphonia risk screening protocol

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katia Nemr

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: To propose and test the applicability of a dysphonia risk screening protocol with score calculation in individuals with and without dysphonia. METHOD: This descriptive cross-sectional study included 365 individuals (41 children, 142 adult women, 91 adult men and 91 seniors divided into a dysphonic group and a non-dysphonic group. The protocol consisted of 18 questions and a score was calculated using a 10-cm visual analog scale. The measured value on the visual analog scale was added to the overall score, along with other partial scores. Speech samples allowed for analysis/assessment of the overall degree of vocal deviation and initial definition of the respective groups and after six months, the separation of the groups was confirmed using an acoustic analysis. RESULTS: The mean total scores were different between the groups in all samples. Values ranged between 37.0 and 57.85 in the dysphonic group and between 12.95 and 19.28 in the non-dysphonic group, with overall means of 46.09 and 15.55, respectively. High sensitivity and specificity were demonstrated when discriminating between the groups with the following cut-off points: 22.50 (children, 29.25 (adult women, 22.75 (adult men, and 27.10 (seniors. CONCLUSION: The protocol demonstrated high sensitivity and specificity in differentiating groups of individuals with and without dysphonia in different sample groups and is thus an effective instrument for use in voice clinics.

  5. PRIME VALUE METHOD TO PRIORITIZE RISK HANDLING STRATEGIES

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Noller, D

    2007-10-31

    Funding for implementing risk handling strategies typically is allocated according to either the risk-averse approach (the worst risk first) or the cost-effective approach (the greatest risk reduction per implementation dollar first). This paper introduces a prime value approach in which risk handling strategies are prioritized according to how nearly they meet the goals of the organization that disburses funds for risk handling. The prime value approach factors in the importance of the project in which the risk has been identified, elements of both risk-averse and cost-effective approaches, and the time period in which the risk could happen. This paper also presents a prioritizer spreadsheet, which employs weighted criteria to calculate a relative rank for the handling strategy of each risk evaluated.

  6. An immunity based network security risk estimation

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LI Tao

    2005-01-01

    According to the relationship between the antibody concentration and the pathogen intrusion intensity, here we present an immunity-based model for the network security risk estimation (Insre). In Insre, the concepts and formal definitions of self,nonself, antibody, antigen and lymphocyte in the network security domain are given. Then the mathematical models of the self-tolerance, the clonal selection, the lifecycle of mature lymphocyte, immune memory and immune surveillance are established. Building upon the above models, a quantitative computation model for network security risk estimation,which is based on the calculation of antibody concentration, is thus presented. By using Insre, the types and intensity of network attacks, as well as the risk level of network security, can be calculated quantitatively and in real-time. Our theoretical analysis and experimental results show that Insre is a good solution to real-time risk evaluation for the network security.

  7. Risk Adjusted Deposit Insurance for Japanese Banks

    OpenAIRE

    Ryuzo Sato; Rama V. Ramachandran; Bohyong Kang

    1990-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the Japanese deposit insurance scheme by contrasting the flat insurance rate with a market-determined risk-adjusted rate. The model used to calculate the risk-adjusted rate is that of Ronn and Verrna (1986) . It utilizes the notion of Merton(1977) that the deposit insurance can be based on a one-to-one relation between it and the put option; this permits the application of Black and Scholes(1973) model for the calculation of the insurance rate. The ris...

  8. Integrating Risk Context into Risk Assessments: The Risk Context Scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kroner, Daryl G.; Gray, Andrew L.; Goodrich, Ben

    2013-01-01

    The context in which offenders are released is an important component of conducting risk assessments. A sample of 257 supervised male parolees were followed in the community ("M" = 870 days) after an initial risk assessment. Drawing on community-based information, the purpose of this study was to evaluate the recently developed Risk Context Scale.…

  9. NASA's Risk Management System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perera, Jeevan S.

    2013-01-01

    Phased-approach for implementation of risk management is necessary. Risk management system will be simple, accessible and promote communication of information to all relevant stakeholders for optimal resource allocation and risk mitigation. Risk management should be used by all team members to manage risks - not just risk office personnel. Each group/department is assigned Risk Integrators who are facilitators for effective risk management. Risks will be managed at the lowest-level feasible, elevate only those risks that require coordination or management from above. Risk informed decision making should be introduced to all levels of management. ? Provide necessary checks and balances to insure that risks are caught/identified and dealt with in a timely manner. Many supporting tools, processes & training must be deployed for effective risk management implementation. Process improvement must be included in the risk processes.

  10. Securitization of Longevity and Mortality Risk

    OpenAIRE

    Tomas Cipra

    2010-01-01

    This paper deals with Alternative Risk Transfer (ART) through the securitization of longevity and mortality risks in pension plans and commercial life insurance. Various types of such mortality-linked securities are described (e.g., CATM bonds, longevity bonds, mortality forwards and futures, and mortality swaps). Pricing methods and real examples are given. Hypothetical calculations concerning the pricing of potential mortality forwards that correspond to the evolution of longevity in the Cz...

  11. Value at Risk for Large Portfolios

    OpenAIRE

    Lönnbark, Carl; Holmberg, Ulf; Brännäs, Kurt

    2009-01-01

    We argue that the practise used in the valuation of the portfolio is important for the calculation of the Value at Risk. In particular, when liquidating a large portfolio the seller may not face horizontal demand curves. We propose a partially new approach for incorporating this fact in the Value at Risk and in an empirical illustration we compare it to a competing approach. We find substantial differences.

  12. Whole Grain Intake Reduces Pancreatic Cancer Risk

    OpenAIRE

    Lei, Qiucheng; Zheng, Huazhen; Bi, Jingcheng; Wang, Xinying; Jiang, Tingting; Gao, Xuejin; Tian, Feng; Xu, Min; Wu, Chao; Zhang, Li; Ning LI; Li, Jieshou

    2016-01-01

    Abstract Mounting evidence from epidemiology studies suggests that whole grain intake may reduce pancreatic cancer risk, but convincing evidence is scarce. We conducted a meta-analysis to assess the association between whole grain intake and pancreatic cancer risk. Relevant observational studies were identified by searching PubMed, Embase, Scopus, and Cochrane library databases for the period from January 1980 to July 2015, with no restrictions. We calculated the summary odds ratios (ORs) for...

  13. SHORT CIRCUIT CURRENT CALCULATION AND PREVENTION IN HIGH VOLTAGE POWER NETS

    OpenAIRE

    SAIF, SALMAN; ALAM, MD. FARUQUL; ALI, HAMID

    2014-01-01

    This thesis is about calculating the short-circuit current on an overhead high voltage transmission line. The intention is to provide engineers and technicians with a better understanding of the risks and solutions associated with power transmission systems and its electrical installations. Two methods (“Impedance method” and “Composition method”) have been described to facilitate with the computation of the short-circuit current. Results yielded from these calculations help network administr...

  14. Unravelling the Mysteries of Expert Mental Calculation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hope, Jack A.

    1985-01-01

    The processes and procedures used by expert mental calculators are identified from a literature review. Experts are characterized by knowledge of a variety of methods, ability to recall numerical equivalents, and ability to remember the numbers involved in various stages of calculations. (MNS)

  15. 40 CFR 91.1307 - Credit calculation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 20 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Credit calculation. 91.1307 Section 91...) CONTROL OF EMISSIONS FROM MARINE SPARK-IGNITION ENGINES In-Use Credit Program for New Marine Engines § 91.1307 Credit calculation. For each participating engine family, emission credits (positive or...

  16. Calculation of LDL apoB

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sniderman, A.D.; Tremblay, A.J.; Graaf, J. de; Couture, P.

    2014-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: This study tests the validity of the Hattori formula to calculate LDL apoB based on plasma lipids and total apoB. METHODS: In 2178 patients in a tertiary care lipid clinic, LDL apoB calculated as suggested by Hattori et al. was compared to directly measured LDL apoB isolated by ultracent

  17. Calculation of resonance integral for fuel cluster

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The procedure for calculating the shielding correction, formulated in the previous paper [6], was broadened and applied for a cluster of cylindrical rods. The sam analytical method as in the previous paper was applied. A combination of Gauss method with the method of Almgren and Porn used for solving the same type of integral was used to calculate the geometry functions. CLUSTER code was written for ZUSE-Z-23 computer to calculate the shielding corrections for pairs of fuel rods in the cluster. Computing time for one pair of fuel rods depends on the number of closely placed rod, and for two closely placed rods it is about 3 hours. Calculations were done for clusters containing 7 and 19 UO2 rods. results show that calculated values of resonance integrals are somewhat higher than the values obtained by Helstrand empirical formula. Taking into account the results for two rods from the previous paper it can be noted that the calculated and empirical values for clusters with 2 and 7 rods are in agreement since the deviations do not exceed the limits of experimental error (±2%). In case of larger cluster with 19 rods deviations are higher than the experimental error. Most probably the calculated values exceed the experimental ones result from the fact that in this paper the shielding correction is calculated only in the region up to 1 keV

  18. Calculated LET-Spectrum of Antiprotons

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bassler, Niels

    -LET components resulting from the annihilation. Though, the calculations of dose-averaged LET in the entry region may suggest that the RBE of antiprotons in the plateau region could significantly differ from unity. Materials and Methods Monte Carlo simulations using FLUKA were performed for calculating...

  19. Calculated optical absorption of different perovskite phases

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Castelli, Ivano Eligio; Thygesen, Kristian Sommer; Jacobsen, Karsten Wedel

    2015-01-01

    We present calculations of the optical properties of a set of around 80 oxides, oxynitrides, and organometal halide cubic and layered perovskites (Ruddlesden-Popper and Dion-Jacobson phases) with a bandgap in the visible part of the solar spectrum. The calculations show that for different classes...

  20. Stability Test for Transient-Temperature Calculations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campbell, W.

    1984-01-01

    Graphical test helps assure numerical stability of calculations of transient temperature or diffusion in composite medium. Rectangular grid forms basis of two-dimensional finite-difference model for heat conduction or other diffusion like phenomena. Model enables calculation of transient heat transfer among up to four different materials that meet at grid point.

  1. 7 CFR 760.406 - Payment calculation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 7 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Payment calculation. 760.406 Section 760.406 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued) FARM SERVICE AGENCY, DEPARTMENT OF... calculation. (a) Under this subpart, separate payment rates for eligible livestock owners and...

  2. CO2 calculator

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Claus Werner; Nielsen, Ole-Kenneth

    2009-01-01

    Many countries are in the process of mapping their national CO2 emissions, but only few have managed to produce an overall report at municipal level yet. Denmark, however, has succeeded in such a project. Using a new national IT-based calculation model, municipalities can calculate the extent of...

  3. 7 CFR 760.909 - Payment calculation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 7 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Payment calculation. 760.909 Section 760.909 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued) FARM SERVICE AGENCY, DEPARTMENT OF... Payment calculation. (a) Under this subpart separate payment rates are established for eligible...

  4. Calculated Atomic Volumes of the Actinide Metals

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Skriver, H.; Andersen, O. K.; Johansson, B.

    1979-01-01

    The equilibrium atomic volume is calculated for the actinide metals. It is possible to account for the localization of the 5f electrons taking place in americium.......The equilibrium atomic volume is calculated for the actinide metals. It is possible to account for the localization of the 5f electrons taking place in americium....

  5. 7 CFR 1416.704 - Payment calculation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 10 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Payment calculation. 1416.704 Section 1416.704 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued) COMMODITY CREDIT CORPORATION, DEPARTMENT... PROGRAMS 2005 Hurricane Tree Assistance Program § 1416.704 Payment calculation. (a) An approved...

  6. 7 CFR 760.307 - Payment calculation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 7 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Payment calculation. 760.307 Section 760.307 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued) FARM SERVICE AGENCY, DEPARTMENT OF... calculation. (a) An eligible livestock producer will be eligible to receive payments for grazing losses...

  7. 7 CFR 760.1203 - Payment calculation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 7 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Payment calculation. 760.1203 Section 760.1203 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued) FARM SERVICE AGENCY, DEPARTMENT OF... calculation. (a) Producers must be paid for feed losses of higher costs only for one of the three years,...

  8. 30 CFR 5.30 - Fee calculation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 30 Mineral Resources 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Fee calculation. 5.30 Section 5.30 Mineral Resources MINE SAFETY AND HEALTH ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF LABOR TESTING, EVALUATION, AND APPROVAL OF MINING PRODUCTS FEES FOR TESTING, EVALUATION, AND APPROVAL OF MINING PRODUCTS § 5.30 Fee calculation....

  9. 47 CFR 65.306 - Calculation accuracy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 47 Telecommunication 3 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Calculation accuracy. 65.306 Section 65.306 Telecommunication FEDERAL COMMUNICATIONS COMMISSION (CONTINUED) COMMON CARRIER SERVICES (CONTINUED) INTERSTATE RATE OF RETURN PRESCRIPTION PROCEDURES AND METHODOLOGIES Exchange Carriers § 65.306 Calculation...

  10. Calculating the Greeks by Cubature formulas

    OpenAIRE

    Teichmann, Josef

    2004-01-01

    We provide cubature formulas for the calculation of derivatives of expected values in the spririt of Terry Lyons and Nicolas Victoir. In financial mathematics derivatives of option prices with respect to initial values, so called Greeks, are of particular importance as hedging parameters. Cubature formulas allow to calculate these quantities very quickly. Simple examples are added to the theoretical exposition.

  11. 40 CFR 1065.850 - Calculations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 32 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Calculations. 1065.850 Section 1065.850 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) AIR POLLUTION CONTROLS ENGINE-TESTING PROCEDURES Testing With Oxygenated Fuels § 1065.850 Calculations. Use the...

  12. Data base to compare calculations and observations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tichler, J.L.

    1985-01-01

    Meteorological and climatological data bases were compared with known tritium release points and diffusion calculations to determine if calculated concentrations could replace measure concentrations at the monitoring stations. Daily tritium concentrations were monitored at 8 stations and 16 possible receptors. Automated data retrieval strategies are listed. (PSB)

  13. Calculation of Temperature Rise in Calorimetry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Canagaratna, Sebastian G.; Witt, Jerry

    1988-01-01

    Gives a simple but fuller account of the basis for accurately calculating temperature rise in calorimetry. Points out some misconceptions regarding these calculations. Describes two basic methods, the extrapolation to zero time and the equal area method. Discusses the theoretical basis of each and their underlying assumptions. (CW)

  14. Atomic Structure Calculations for Neutral Oxygen

    OpenAIRE

    Alonizan, Norah; Qindeel, Rabia; Ben Nessib, Nabil

    2016-01-01

    Energy levels and oscillator strengths for neutral oxygen have been calculated using the Cowan (CW), SUPERSTRUCTURE (SS), and AUTOSTRUCTURE (AS) atomic structure codes. The results obtained with these atomic codes have been compared with MCHF calculations and experimental values from the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) database.

  15. Calculating "g" from Acoustic Doppler Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Torres, Sebastian; Gonzalez-Espada, Wilson J.

    2006-01-01

    Traditionally, the Doppler effect for sound is introduced in high school and college physics courses. Students calculate the perceived frequency for several scenarios relating a stationary or moving observer and a stationary or moving sound source. These calculations assume a constant velocity of the observer and/or source. Although seldom…

  16. Investment Return Calculations and Senior School Mathematics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fitzherbert, Richard M.; Pitt, David G. W.

    2010-01-01

    The methods for calculating returns on investments are taught to undergraduate level business students. In this paper, the authors demonstrate how such calculations are within the scope of senior school students of mathematics. In providing this demonstration the authors hope to give teachers and students alike an illustration of the power and the…

  17. Decreasing relative risk premium

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Frank

    2007-01-01

    such that the corresponding relative risk premium is a decreasing function of present wealth, and we determine the set of associated utility functions. We find a new characterization of risk vulnerability and determine a large set of utility functions, closed under summation and composition, which are both risk vulnerable...... and have decreasing relative risk premium. We finally introduce the notion of partial risk neutral preferences on binary lotteries and show that partial risk neutrality is equivalent to preferences with decreasing relative risk premium...

  18. RISK MANAGEMENT IN PHARMACEUTICALS

    OpenAIRE

    V. SIVA RAMA KRISHNA; PRIYANKA SRIVASTAVA

    2014-01-01

    Objective: To review the risk in pharmaceutical industries and the risk management process and tools. There is risk always in anything we do. All the industries on this globe perform actions that involve risks; risk is only dangerous when there is no anticipation to manage it. Risks if assessed and controlled properly will benefit the industries against the fall and makes stronger. Risk should not be assessed as bad, but should assess as an opportunity for making things resilient by proper ma...

  19. MODERN RISK MEASURES FOR INDIVIDUAL HIGHER EDUCATION INVESTMENT RISK EVALUATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vona Mate

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available One of the reasons why people get degree and participate in organized education is that they want to raise their human capital or signal their inner abilities to future employers by sorting themselves out. In both cases they can expect return to their investment, because they can expect higher life-time earnings than those who do not have degree. In this paper we will refer this activity as higher education investment or education investment. In this paper the investment of the state into educating their citizens will not be considered. The question of this paper will develop the findings of Vona (2014. I suggested to introduce modern risk measures because individual risk-taking became a serious question. It was considered that modern risk measures can help to solve some issues with the relation of investment and risk. However before applying some measures from a different field of science, namely investment finance and financial mathematics, to another, economics of education, there must be a very careful consideration, because there are debate over these measures applicability even on their field of science. Value at Risk is not coherent and Expected Shortfall is only one of a great deal of possible tail loss measures. For this reason it will be discussed in detail how should we should adopt the measures, what kind of data is necessary for calculating this risk measures and what kind of new insight they can bring. With the aid of a numerical example it will be shown that with expected shortfall measure we can reflect some large losses, and potential high value of diversification. We show the value at risk based measure is not coherent and this means it points out something different in this environment. It is can be an indicator of loss in opportunities for high end returns.

  20. Modeling tire deformation for power loss calculations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Whicker, D.; Rohde, S.M.

    1981-01-01

    A combined thermo-mechanical model for calculating tire power loss has been developed at GMR. This paper presents the techniques for developing the realistic finite element models needed in both the thermal and deformation portions of the combined model. It also describes the techniques used in calculating deformed tire shapes. First, procedures are outlined for automatically generating a finite element discretization of a tire. Then, this discretization, together with information about the properties of tire materials, is used to develop a finite element model of the tire. This model is used in MSC NASTRAN to calculate compliances, i.e., the response of the tire to inflation and to unit loads applied at points on the tire surface. These compliances are then used in an algorithm which calculates the deformed shape of a tire loaded against the pavement surface. Sample results are presented to show the agreement between calculated and measured tire deformation.

  1. Semantic Similarity Calculation of Chinese Word

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liqiang Pan

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available This paper puts forward a two layers computing method to calculate semantic similarity of Chinese word. Firstly, using Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA subject model to generate subject spatial domain. Then mapping word into topic space and forming topic distribution which is used to calculate semantic similarity of word(the first layer computing. Finally, using semantic dictionary "HowNet" to deeply excavate semantic similarity of word (the second layer computing. This method not only overcomes the problem that it’s not specific enough merely using LDA to calculate semantic similarity of word, but also solves the problems such as new words (haven’t been added in dictionary and without considering specific context when calculating semantic similarity based on semantic dictionary "HowNet". By experimental comparison, this thesis proves feasibility,availability and advantages of the calculation method.

  2. Tools for calculations in color space

    CERN Document Server

    Sjodahl, Malin

    2013-01-01

    Both the higher energy and the initial state colored partons contribute to making exact calculations in QCD color space more important at the LHC than at its predecessors. This is applicable whether the method of assessing QCD is fixed order calculation, resummation, or parton showers. In this talk we discuss tools for tackling the problem of performing exact color summed calculations. We start with theoretical tools in the form of the (standard) trace bases and the orthogonal multiplet bases (for which a general method of construction was recently presented). Following this, we focus on two new packages for performing color structure calculations: one easy to use Mathematica package, ColorMath, and one C++ package, ColorFull, which is suitable for more demanding calculations, and for interfacing with event generators.

  3. Providing access to risk prediction tools via the HL7 XML-formatted risk web service.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chipman, Jonathan; Drohan, Brian; Blackford, Amanda; Parmigiani, Giovanni; Hughes, Kevin; Bosinoff, Phil

    2013-07-01

    Cancer risk prediction tools provide valuable information to clinicians but remain computationally challenging. Many clinics find that CaGene or HughesRiskApps fit their needs for easy- and ready-to-use software to obtain cancer risks; however, these resources may not fit all clinics' needs. The HughesRiskApps Group and BayesMendel Lab therefore developed a web service, called "Risk Service", which may be integrated into any client software to quickly obtain standardized and up-to-date risk predictions for BayesMendel tools (BRCAPRO, MMRpro, PancPRO, and MelaPRO), the Tyrer-Cuzick IBIS Breast Cancer Risk Evaluation Tool, and the Colorectal Cancer Risk Assessment Tool. Software clients that can convert their local structured data into the HL7 XML-formatted family and clinical patient history (Pedigree model) may integrate with the Risk Service. The Risk Service uses Apache Tomcat and Apache Axis2 technologies to provide an all Java web service. The software client sends HL7 XML information containing anonymized family and clinical history to a Dana-Farber Cancer Institute (DFCI) server, where it is parsed, interpreted, and processed by multiple risk tools. The Risk Service then formats the results into an HL7 style message and returns the risk predictions to the originating software client. Upon consent, users may allow DFCI to maintain the data for future research. The Risk Service implementation is exemplified through HughesRiskApps. The Risk Service broadens the availability of valuable, up-to-date cancer risk tools and allows clinics and researchers to integrate risk prediction tools into their own software interface designed for their needs. Each software package can collect risk data using its own interface, and display the results using its own interface, while using a central, up-to-date risk calculator. This allows users to choose from multiple interfaces while always getting the latest risk calculations. Consenting users contribute their data for future

  4. Cancer risk in systemic lupus

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bernatsky, Sasha; Ramsey-Goldman, Rosalind; Labrecque, Jeremy;

    2013-01-01

    .46, 5.49) and leukemia. In addition, increased risks of cancer of the vulva (SIR 3.78, 95% CI 1.52, 7.78), lung (SIR 1.30, 95% CI 1.04, 1.60), thyroid (SIR 1.76, 95% CI 1.13, 2.61) and possibly liver (SIR 1.87, 95% CI 0.97, 3.27) were suggested. However, a decreased risk was estimated for breast (SIR 0......: These data estimate only a small increased risk in SLE (versus the general population) for cancer over-all. However, there is clearly an increased risk of NHL, and cancers of the vulva, lung, thyroid, and possibly liver. It remains unclear to what extent the association with NHL is mediated by innate versus......OBJECTIVE: To update estimates of cancer risk in SLE relative to the general population. METHODS: A multisite international SLE cohort was linked with regional tumor registries. Standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) were calculated as the ratio of observed to expected cancers. RESULTS: Across 30...

  5. Corporate risks, risk bearing ability and equity

    OpenAIRE

    Handschin, Lukas

    2011-01-01

    There is a relation between corporate risks, risk bearing ability and equity. In order to assess the risk bearing ability of a corporation, one reference figure is equity, understood as the sum of legal capital and reserves, free reserves and accrued profits. Equity shows the risk bearing ability related to the risk of asset reduction as well as the ability of the corporation to attract new liquidity by increasing debts, in case of a negative free cash flow. Equity is the risk reserve of the ...

  6. Risks of advanced technology - Nuclear: risk comparison

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Latarjet, R. (Institut du Radium, Orsay (France))

    The author presents a general definition of the concept of risk and makes a distinction between the various types of risk - the absolute and the relative; the risk for oneself and for others. The quantitative comparison of risks presupposes their ''interchangeability''. In the case of major risks in the long term - or genotoxic risks - there is a certain degree of interchangeability which makes this quantitative comparison possible. It is expressed by the concept of rad-equivalence which the author defines and explains giving as a concrete example the work conducted on ethylene and ethylene oxide.

  7. Quadrant III RFI draft report: Appendix J, Baseline risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In accordance with the Risk Assessment Guidance for Superfund (U. S.EPA 1989), which states that background risk should be calculated separately from site-related risk in order to provide important information to the risk manager, this appendix assesses the human health risks associated with background levels of naturally occurring compounds in soil at the Portsmouth Gaseous Diffusion Plant (PORTS). This appendix is organized as follows: Background Conditions, in which the results of Geraghty ampersand Miller's work on characterizing background levels of naturally occurring compounds in soils is summarized; Identification of Exposure Pathways; Estimation of Environmental Concentrations; Estimation of Human Intake; Toxicity Assessment, and Risk Characterization, in which numerical estimates of carcinogenic and noncarcinogenic risk are calculated for each naturally occurring compound and potential exposure pathway

  8. Total Pesticide Exposure Calculation among Vegetable Farmers in Benguet, Philippines

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This was a cross-sectional study that investigated pesticide exposure and its risk factors targeting vegetable farmers selected through cluster sampling. The sampling size calculated with P=.05 was 211 vegetable farmers and 37 farms. The mean usage of pesticide was 21.35 liters. Risk factors included damaged backpack sprayer (34.7%), spills on hands (31.8%), and spraying against the wind (58%). The top 3 pesticides used were pyrethroid (46.4%), organophosphates (24.2%), and carbamates (21.3%). Those who were exposed to fungicides and insecticides also had higher total pesticide exposure. Furthermore, a farmer who was a pesticide applicator, mixer, loader, and who had not been given instructions through training was at risk of having higher pesticide exposure. The most prevalent symptoms were headache (64.1%), muscle pain (61.1%), cough (45.5%), weakness (42.4%), eye pain (39.9%), chest pain (37.4%), and eye redness (33.8%). The data can be used for the formulation of an integrated program on safety and health in the vegetable industry.

  9. Relative Velocity as a Metric for Probability of Collision Calculations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frigm, Ryan Clayton; Rohrbaugh, Dave

    2008-01-01

    Collision risk assessment metrics, such as the probability of collision calculation, are based largely on assumptions about the interaction of two objects during their close approach. Specifically, the approach to probabilistic risk assessment can be performed more easily if the relative trajectories of the two close approach objects are assumed to be linear during the encounter. It is shown in this analysis that one factor in determining linearity is the relative velocity of the two encountering bodies, in that the assumption of linearity breaks down at low relative approach velocities. The first part of this analysis is the determination of the relative velocity threshold below which the assumption of linearity becomes invalid. The second part is a statistical study of conjunction interactions between representative asset spacecraft and the associated debris field environment to determine the likelihood of encountering a low relative velocity close approach. This analysis is performed for both the LEO and GEO orbit regimes. Both parts comment on the resulting effects to collision risk assessment operations.

  10. Total Pesticide Exposure Calculation among Vegetable Farmers in Benguet, Philippines

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jinky Leilanie Lu

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available This was a cross-sectional study that investigated pesticide exposure and its risk factors targeting vegetable farmers selected through cluster sampling. The sampling size calculated with =.05 was 211 vegetable farmers and 37 farms. The mean usage of pesticide was 21.35 liters. Risk factors included damaged backpack sprayer (34.7%, spills on hands (31.8%, and spraying against the wind (58%. The top 3 pesticides used were pyrethroid (46.4%, organophosphates (24.2%, and carbamates (21.3%. Those who were exposed to fungicides and insecticides also had higher total pesticide exposure. Furthermore, a farmer who was a pesticide applicator, mixer, loader, and who had not been given instructions through training was at risk of having higher pesticide exposure. The most prevalent symptoms were headache (64.1%, muscle pain (61.1%, cough (45.5%, weakness (42.4%, eye pain (39.9%, chest pain (37.4%, and eye redness (33.8%. The data can be used for the formulation of an integrated program on safety and health in the vegetable industry.

  11. The cardiovascular risk management for people living with HIV in Europe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Shahmanesh, M; Schultze, A; Burns, F;

    2016-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: HIV has become a chronic condition associated with comorbidities. We investigatedcardiovascular (CV)risk and risk modification in a European HIV-Cohort. METHODS: EuroSIDA patients (from 1/1/2000) for whom CV-risk could be calculated (D:A:D risk equation) were included in the analysis....

  12. A Novel TRM Calculation Method by Probabilistic Concept

    Science.gov (United States)

    Audomvongseree, Kulyos; Yokoyama, Akihiko; Verma, Suresh Chand; Nakachi, Yoshiki

    In a new competitive environment, it becomes possible for the third party to access a transmission facility. From this structure, to efficiently manage the utilization of the transmission network, a new definition about Available Transfer Capability (ATC) has been proposed. According to the North American ElectricReliability Council (NERC)’s definition, ATC depends on several parameters, i. e. Total Transfer Capability (TTC), Transmission Reliability Margin (TRM), and Capacity Benefit Margin (CBM). This paper is focused on the calculation of TRM which is one of the security margin reserved for any uncertainty of system conditions. The TRM calculation by probabilistic method is proposed in this paper. Based on the modeling of load forecast error and error in transmission line limitation, various cases of transmission transfer capability and its related probabilistic nature can be calculated. By consideration of the proposed concept of risk analysis, the appropriate required amount of TRM can be obtained. The objective of this research is to provide realistic information on the actual ability of the network which may be an alternative choice for system operators to make an appropriate decision in the competitive market. The advantages of the proposed method are illustrated by application to the IEEJ-WEST10 model system.

  13. Comparison of analytical methods for calculation of wind loads

    Science.gov (United States)

    Minderman, Donald J.; Schultz, Larry L.

    1989-01-01

    The following analysis is a comparison of analytical methods for calculation of wind load pressures. The analytical methods specified in ASCE Paper No. 3269, ANSI A58.1-1982, the Standard Building Code, and the Uniform Building Code were analyzed using various hurricane speeds to determine the differences in the calculated results. The winds used for the analysis ranged from 100 mph to 125 mph and applied inland from the shoreline of a large open body of water (i.e., an enormous lake or the ocean) a distance of 1500 feet or ten times the height of the building or structure considered. For a building or structure less than or equal to 250 feet in height acted upon by a wind greater than or equal to 115 mph, it was determined that the method specified in ANSI A58.1-1982 calculates a larger wind load pressure than the other methods. For a building or structure between 250 feet and 500 feet tall acted upon by a wind rangind from 100 mph to 110 mph, there is no clear choice of which method to use; for these cases, factors that must be considered are the steady-state or peak wind velocity, the geographic location, the distance from a large open body of water, and the expected design life and its risk factor.

  14. CALCULATION OF PER PARCEL PROBABILITY FOR DUD BOMBS IN GERMANY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. M. Tavakkoli Sabour

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Unexploded aerial Bombs, also known as duds or unfused bombs, of the bombardments in the past wars remain explosive for decades after the war under the earth’s surface threatening the civil activities especially if dredging works are involved. Interpretation of the aerial photos taken shortly after bombardments has been proven to be useful for finding the duds. Unfortunately, the reliability of this method is limited by some factors. The chance of finding a dud on an aerial photo depends strongly on the photography system, the size of the bomb and the landcover. On the other hand, exploded bombs are considerably better detectable on aerial photos and confidently represent the extent and density of a bombardment. Considering an empirical quota of unfused bombs, the expected number of duds can be calculated by the number of exploded bombs. This can help to have a better calculation of cost-risk ratio and to classify the areas for clearance. This article is about a method for calculation of a per parcel probability of dud bombs according to the distribution and density of exploded bombs. No similar work has been reported in this field by other authors.

  15. FOOD RISK ANALYSIS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Food risk analysis is a holistic approach to food safety because it considers all aspects of the problem. Risk assessment modeling is the foundation of food risk analysis. Proper design and simulation of the risk assessment model is important to properly predict and control risk. Because of knowl...

  16. Benchmark calculations of sodium fast critical experiments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The high expectations from fast critical experiments impose the additional requirements on reliability of final reconstructed values, obtained in experiments at critical facility. Benchmark calculations of critical experiments are characterized by impossibility of complete experiment reconstruction, the large amounts of input data (dependent and independent) with very different reliability. It should also take into account different sensitivity of the measured and appropriate calculated characteristics to the identical changes of geometry parameters, temperature, and isotopic composition of individual materials. The calculations of critical facility experiments are produced for the benchmark models, generated by the specific reconstructing codes with its features when adjusting model parameters, and using the nuclear data library. The generated benchmark model, providing the agreed calculated and experimental values for one or more neutronic characteristics can lead to considerable differences for other key characteristics. The sensitivity of key neutronic characteristics to the extra steel allocation in the core, and ENDF/B nuclear data sources is performed using a few calculated models of BFS-62-3A and BFS1-97 critical assemblies. The comparative analysis of the calculated effective multiplication factor, spectral indices, sodium void reactivity, and radial fission-rate distributions leads to quite different models, providing the best agreement the calculated and experimental neutronic characteristics. This fact should be considered during the refinement of computational models and code-verification purpose. (author)

  17. Upper Subcritical Calculations Based on Correlated Data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sobes, Vladimir [ORNL; Rearden, Bradley T [ORNL; Mueller, Don [ORNL; Marshall, William BJ J [ORNL; Scaglione, John M [ORNL; Dunn, Michael E [ORNL

    2015-01-01

    The American National Standards Institute and American Nuclear Society standard for Validation of Neutron Transport Methods for Nuclear Criticality Safety Calculations defines the upper subcritical limit (USL) as “a limit on the calculated k-effective value established to ensure that conditions calculated to be subcritical will actually be subcritical.” Often, USL calculations are based on statistical techniques that infer information about a nuclear system of interest from a set of known/well-characterized similar systems. The work in this paper is part of an active area of research to investigate the way traditional trending analysis is used in the nuclear industry, and in particular, the research is assessing the impact of the underlying assumption that the experimental data being analyzed for USL calculations are statistically independent. In contrast, the multiple experiments typically used for USL calculations can be correlated because they are often performed at the same facilities using the same materials and measurement techniques. This paper addresses this issue by providing a set of statistical inference methods to calculate the bias and bias uncertainty based on the underlying assumption that the experimental data are correlated. Methods to quantify these correlations are the subject of a companion paper and will not be discussed here. The newly proposed USL methodology is based on the assumption that the integral experiments selected for use in the establishment of the USL are sufficiently applicable and that experimental correlations are known. Under the assumption of uncorrelated data, the new methods collapse directly to familiar USL equations currently used. We will demonstrate our proposed methods on real data and compare them to calculations of currently used methods such as USLSTATS and NUREG/CR-6698. Lastly, we will also demonstrate the effect experiment correlations can have on USL calculations.

  18. Time trends in osteoporosis risk factor profiles

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Holm, Jakob Præst; Hyldstrup, Lars; Jensen, Jens-Erik Beck

    2016-01-01

    . Rheumatoid arthritis (OR = 2.4) and chronic pulmonary disease (OR = 1.5) was associated with site-specific osteoporosis by DXA at the total hip. Current use of loop diuretics (OR = 1.7) and glucocorticoid use (OR = 1.04-1.06) were associated with both total hip and femoral neck T-score ... confirms an independent negative association with BMD of many established risk factors, certain comorbidities, and medications. Exercise level, use of loop diuretics, and prevalent chronic pulmonary disease, risk factors not included in fracture risk calculators were associated with osteoporosis by DXA...

  19. Using Inverted Indices for Accelerating LINGO Calculations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kristensen, Thomas Greve; Nielsen, Jesper; Pedersen, Christian Nørgaard Storm

    2011-01-01

    The ever growing size of chemical data bases calls for the development of novel methods for representing and comparing molecules. One such method called LINGO is based on fragmenting the SMILES string representation of molecules. Comparison of molecules can then be performed by calculating the...... queries. The previous best method for rapidly calculating the LINGOsim similarity matrix required specialised hardware to yield a significant speedup over existing methods. By representing LINGO multisets in the verbose representation and using inverted indices it is possible to calculate LINGOsim...

  20. The WFIRST Galaxy Survey Exposure Time Calculator

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hirata, Christopher M.; Gehrels, Neil; Kneib, Jean-Paul; Kruk, Jeffrey; Rhodes, Jason; Wang, Yun; Zoubian, Julien

    2013-01-01

    This document describes the exposure time calculator for the Wide-Field Infrared Survey Telescope (WFIRST) high-latitude survey. The calculator works in both imaging and spectroscopic modes. In addition to the standard ETC functions (e.g. background and SN determination), the calculator integrates over the galaxy population and forecasts the density and redshift distribution of galaxy shapes usable for weak lensing (in imaging mode) and the detected emission lines (in spectroscopic mode). The source code is made available for public use.

  1. Calculation of external dose from distributed source

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper discusses a relatively simple calculational method, called the point kernel method (Fo68), for estimating external dose from distributed sources that emit photon or electron radiations. The principles of the point kernel method are emphasized, rather than the presentation of extensive sets of calculations or tables of numerical results. A few calculations are presented for simple source geometries as illustrations of the method, and references and descriptions are provided for other caluclations in the literature. This paper also describes exposure situations for which the point kernel method is not appropriate and other, more complex, methods must be used, but these methods are not discussed in any detail

  2. Neutronic parameters calculations of a CANDU reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Neutronic calculations that reproduce in a simplified way some aspects of a CANDU reactor design were performed. Starting from some prefixed reactor parameters, cylindrical and uniform iron adjuster rods were designed. An appropriate refueling scheme was established, defininig in a 2 zones model their dimensions and exit burnups. The calculations have been done using the codes WIMS-D4 (cell), SNOD (reactivity device simulations) and PUMA (reactor). Comparing with similar calculations done with codes and models usually employed for CANDU design, it is concluded that the models and methods used are appropriate. (Author)

  3. Hamming generalized corrector for reactivity calculation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Suescun-Diaz, Daniel; Ibarguen-Gonzalez, Maria C.; Figueroa-Jimenez, Jorge H. [Pontificia Universidad Javeriana Cali, Cali (Colombia). Dept. de Ciencias Naturales y Matematicas

    2014-06-15

    This work presents the Hamming method generalized corrector for numerically resolving the differential equation of delayed neutron precursor concentration from the point kinetics equations for reactivity calculation, without using the nuclear power history or the Laplace transform. A study was carried out of several correctors with their respective modifiers with different time step calculations, to offer stability and greater precision. Better results are obtained for some correctors than with other existing methods. Reactivity can be calculated with precision of the order h{sup 5}, where h is the time step. (orig.)

  4. Assessment of seismic margin calculation methods

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kennedy, R.P.; Murray, R.C.; Ravindra, M.K.; Reed, J.W.; Stevenson, J.D.

    1989-03-01

    Seismic margin review of nuclear power plants requires that the High Confidence of Low Probability of Failure (HCLPF) capacity be calculated for certain components. The candidate methods for calculating the HCLPF capacity as recommended by the Expert Panel on Quantification of Seismic Margins are the Conservative Deterministic Failure Margin (CDFM) method and the Fragility Analysis (FA) method. The present study evaluated these two methods using some representative components in order to provide further guidance in conducting seismic margin reviews. It is concluded that either of the two methods could be used for calculating HCLPF capacities. 21 refs., 9 figs., 6 tabs.

  5. Stopping-power calculations for semiconductors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The method developed by Brandt and Reinheimer which explicitly includes the effect of the semiconductor gap has been used to calculate the proton and α-particle stopping powers of the valence-electron gas of C (diamond), ZnTe, and U. These values, as well as those existing for Si and Ge, have been combined with the stopping contribution of the electronic core obtained from the statistical atomic model of Bonderup. Stopping powers have also been calculated using the statistical model alone. The calculated curves, which are valid for all incident projectile energies, reproduce the overall features of the semiempirical slowing-down curves, but not always the absolute values

  6. Note about socio-economic calculations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Landex, Alex; Andersen, Jonas Lohmann Elkjær; Salling, Kim Bang

    2006-01-01

    for socio-economic calculations within the transportation area (Ministry of Traffic, 2003). The note also explains the theory of socio-economic calculations – reference is here made to ”Road Infrastructure Planning – a Decision-oriented approach” (Leleur, 2000). Socio-economic evaluations of infrastructure......This note gives a short introduction of how to make socio-economic evaluations in connection with the teaching at the Centre for Traffic and Transport (CTT). It is not a manual for making socio-economic calculations in transport infrastructure projects – in this context we refer to the guidelines...

  7. Equivalent-spherical-shield neutron dose calculations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Neutron doses through 162-cm-thick spherical shields were calculated to be 1090 and 448 mrem/h for regular and magnetite concrete, respectively. These results bracket the measured data, for reinforced regular concrete, of /approximately/600 mrem/h. The calculated fraction of the high-energy (>20 MeV) dose component also bracketed the experimental data. The measured and calculated doses were for a graphite beam stop bombarded with 100 nA of 800-MeV protons. 6 refs., 2 figs., 1 tab

  8. Ti-84 Plus graphing calculator for dummies

    CERN Document Server

    McCalla

    2013-01-01

    Get up-to-speed on the functionality of your TI-84 Plus calculator Completely revised to cover the latest updates to the TI-84 Plus calculators, this bestselling guide will help you become the most savvy TI-84 Plus user in the classroom! Exploring the standard device, the updated device with USB plug and upgraded memory (the TI-84 Plus Silver Edition), and the upcoming color screen device, this book provides you with clear, understandable coverage of the TI-84's updated operating system. Details the new apps that are available for download to the calculator via the USB cabl

  9. Energy of plate tectonics calculation and projection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. H. Swedan

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available Mathematics and observations suggest that the energy of the geological activities resulting from plate tectonics is equal to the latent heat of melting, calculated at mantle's pressure, of the new ocean crust created at midocean ridges following sea floor spreading. This energy varies with the temperature of ocean floor, which is correlated with surface temperature. The objective of this manuscript is to calculate the force that drives plate tectonics, estimate the energy released, verify the calculations based on experiments and observations, and project the increase of geological activities with surface temperature rise caused by climate change.

  10. Fluidization calculation on nuclear fuel kernel coating

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The fluidization of nuclear fuel kernel coating was calculated. The bottom of the reactor was in the from of cone on top of the cone there was a cylinder, the diameter of the cylinder for fluidization was 2 cm and at the upper part of the cylinder was 3 cm. Fluidization took place in the cone and the first cylinder. The maximum and the minimum velocity of the gas of varied kernel diameter, the porosity and bed height of varied stream gas velocity were calculated. The calculation was done by basic program

  11. Pairing schemes for HFB calculations of nuclei

    CERN Document Server

    Duguet, T; Bonche, P

    2005-01-01

    Several pairing schemes currently used to describe superfluid nuclei through Hartree-Fock-Bogolyubov (HFB) calculations are briefly reviewed. We put a particular emphasis on the regularization recipes used in connection with zero-range forces and on the density dependence which usually complement their definition. Regarding the chosen regularization process, the goal is not only to identify the impact it may or may not have on pairing properties of nuclei through spherical 1D HFB calculations but also to assess its tractability for systematic axial 2D and 3D mean-field and beyond-mean-field calculations.

  12. RA-0 reactor. New neutronic calculations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    An updating of the neutronic calculations performed at the RA-0 reactor, located at the Natural, Physical and Exact Sciences Faculty of Cordoba National University, are herein described. The techniques used for the calculation of a reactor like the RA-0 allows prediction in detail of the flux behaviour in the core's interior and in the reflector, which will be helpful for experiments design. In particular, the use of WIMSD4 code to make calculations on the reactor implies a novelty in the possible applications of this code to solve the problems that arise in practice. (Author)

  13. Pressure vessel calculations for VVER-440 reactors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hordósy, G; Hegyi, Gy; Keresztúri, A; Maráczy, Cs; Temesvári, E; Vértes, P; Zsolnay, E

    2005-01-01

    For the determination of the fast neutron load of the reactor pressure vessel a mixed calculational procedure was developed. The procedure was applied to the Unit II of Paks NPP, Hungary. The neutron source on the outer surfaces of the reactor was determined by a core design code, and the neutron transport calculations outside the core were performed by the Monte Carlo code MCNP. The reaction rate in the activation detectors at surveillance positions and at the cavity were calculated and compared with measurements. In most cases, fairly good agreement was found.

  14. Assessment of seismic margin calculation methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Seismic margin review of nuclear power plants requires that the High Confidence of Low Probability of Failure (HCLPF) capacity be calculated for certain components. The candidate methods for calculating the HCLPF capacity as recommended by the Expert Panel on Quantification of Seismic Margins are the Conservative Deterministic Failure Margin (CDFM) method and the Fragility Analysis (FA) method. The present study evaluated these two methods using some representative components in order to provide further guidance in conducting seismic margin reviews. It is concluded that either of the two methods could be used for calculating HCLPF capacities. 21 refs., 9 figs., 6 tabs

  15. Semidirect algorithms in electron propagator calculations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zakrzewski, V.G.; Ortiz, J.V. [Univ. of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    1994-12-31

    Electron propagator calculations have been executed with a semi-direct algorithm that generates only a subset of transformed electron repulsion integrals and that takes advantage of Abelian point group symmetry. Diagonal self-energy expressions that are advantageous for large molecules are employed. Illustrative calculations with basis sets in excess of 200 functions include evaluations of the ionization energies of C{sup 2{minus}}{sub 7} and Zn(C{sub 5}H{sub 5}){sub 2}. In the former application, a bound dianion is obtained for a D{sub 3h} structure. In the latter, many final states of the same symmetry are calculated without difficulty.

  16. Evaluating shielding effectiveness for reducing space radiation cancer risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    We discuss calculations of probability distribution functions (PDF) representing uncertainties in projecting fatal cancer risk from galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and solar particle events (SPE). The PDFs are used in significance tests for evaluating the effectiveness of potential radiation shielding approaches. Uncertainties in risk coefficients determined from epidemiology data, dose and dose-rate reduction factors, quality factors, and physics models of radiation environments are considered in models of cancer risk PDFs. Competing mortality risks and functional correlations in radiation quality factor uncertainties are included in the calculations. We show that the cancer risk uncertainty, defined as the ratio of the upper value of 95% confidence interval (CI) to the point estimate is about 4-fold for lunar and Mars mission risk projections. For short-stay lunar missions (180d) or Mars missions, GCR risks may exceed radiation risk limits that are based on acceptable levels of risk. For example, the upper 95% CI exceeding 10% fatal risk for males and females on a Mars mission. For reducing GCR cancer risks, shielding materials are marginally effective because of the penetrating nature of GCR and secondary radiation produced in tissue by relativistic particles. At the present time, polyethylene or carbon composite shielding cannot be shown to significantly reduce risk compared to aluminum shielding based on a significance test that accounts for radiobiology uncertainties in GCR risk projection

  17. Evaluating Shielding Effectiveness for Reducing Space Radiation Cancer Risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cucinotta, Francis A.; Kim, Myung-Hee Y.; Ren, Lei

    2007-01-01

    We discuss calculations of probability distribution functions (PDF) representing uncertainties in projecting fatal cancer risk from galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and solar particle events (SPE). The PDF s are used in significance tests of the effectiveness of potential radiation shielding approaches. Uncertainties in risk coefficients determined from epidemiology data, dose and dose-rate reduction factors, quality factors, and physics models of radiation environments are considered in models of cancer risk PDF s. Competing mortality risks and functional correlations in radiation quality factor uncertainties are treated in the calculations. We show that the cancer risk uncertainty, defined as the ratio of the 95% confidence level (CL) to the point estimate is about 4-fold for lunar and Mars mission risk projections. For short-stay lunar missions (risk, however one that is mitigated effectively by shielding, especially for carbon composites structures with high hydrogen content. In contrast, for long duration lunar (>180 d) or Mars missions, GCR risks may exceed radiation risk limits, with 95% CL s exceeding 10% fatal risk for males and females on a Mars mission. For reducing GCR cancer risks, shielding materials are marginally effective because of the penetrating nature of GCR and secondary radiation produced in tissue by relativistic particles. At the present time, polyethylene or carbon composite shielding can not be shown to significantly reduce risk compared to aluminum shielding based on a significance test that accounts for radiobiology uncertainties in GCR risk projection.

  18. Differential neuromuscular training effects onACL injury risk factors in"high-risk" versus "low-risk" athletes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ford Kevin R

    2007-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Neuromuscular training may reduce risk factors that contribute to ACL injury incidence in female athletes. Multi-component, ACL injury prevention training programs can be time and labor intensive, which may ultimately limit training program utilization or compliance. The purpose of this study was to determine the effect of neuromuscular training on those classified as "high-risk" compared to those classified as "low-risk." The hypothesis was that high-risk athletes would decrease knee abduction moments while low-risk and control athletes would not show measurable changes. Methods Eighteen high school female athletes participated in neuromuscular training 3×/week over a 7-week period. Knee kinematics and kinetics were measured during a drop vertical jump (DVJ test at pre/post training. External knee abduction moments were calculated using inverse dynamics. Logistic regression indicated maximal sensitivity and specificity for prediction of ACL injury risk using external knee abduction (25.25 Nm cutoff during a DVJ. Based on these data, 12 study subjects (and 4 controls were grouped into the high-risk (knee abduction moment >25.25 Nm and 6 subjects (and 7 controls were grouped into the low-risk (knee abduction Results Athletes classified as high-risk decreased their knee abduction moments by 13% following training (Dominant pre: 39.9 ± 15.8 Nm to 34.6 ± 9.6 Nm; Non-dominant pre: 37.1 ± 9.2 to 32.4 ± 10.7 Nm; p = 0.033 training X risk factor interaction. Athletes grouped into the low-risk category did not change their abduction moments following training (p > 0.05. Control subjects classified as either high or low-risk also did not significantly change from pre to post-testing. Conclusion These results indicate that "high-risk" female athletes decreased the magnitude of the previously identified risk factor to ACL injury following neuromuscular training. However, the mean values for the high-risk subjects were not reduced to

  19. Financial Risk Measurement for Financial Risk Management

    OpenAIRE

    Torben G. Andersen; Tim Bollerslev; Peter F. Christoffersen; Francis X. Diebold

    2012-01-01

    Current practice largely follows restrictive approaches to market risk measurement, such as historical simulation or RiskMetrics. In contrast, we propose flexible methods that exploit recent developments in financial econometrics and are likely to produce more accurate risk assessments, treating both portfolio-level and asset-level analysis. Asset-level analysis is particularly challenging because the demands of real-world risk management in financial institutions - in particular, real-time r...

  20. Comparison of dose calculation methods for brachytherapy of intraocular tumors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rivard, Mark J.; Chiu-Tsao, Sou-Tung; Finger, Paul T.; Meigooni, Ali S.; Melhus, Christopher S.; Mourtada, Firas; Napolitano, Mary E.; Rogers, D. W. O.; Thomson, Rowan M.; Nath, Ravinder [Department of Radiation Oncology, Tufts University School of Medicine, Boston, Massachusetts 02111 (United States); Quality MediPhys LLC, Denville, New Jersey 07834 (United States); New York Eye Cancer Center, New York, New York 10065 (United States); Department of Radiation Oncology, Comprehensive Cancer Center of Nevada, Las Vegas, Nevada 89169 (United States); Department of Radiation Oncology, Tufts University School of Medicine, Boston, Massachusetts 02111 (United States); Department of Radiation Physics, University of Texas, M.D. Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas 77030 (United States) and Department of Experimental Diagnostic Imaging, University of Texas, M.D. Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas 77030 (United States); Physics, Elekta Inc., Norcross, Georgia 30092 (United States); Department of Physics, Carleton University, Ottawa, Ontario K1S 5B6 (Canada); Department of Therapeutic Radiology, Yale University School of Medicine, New Haven, Connecticut 06520 (United States)

    2011-01-15

    -axis points-of-interest, dose differences approached factors of 7 and 12 at some positions for {sup 125}I and {sup 103}Pd, respectively. There was good agreement ({approx}3%) among MC codes and Plaque Simulator results when appropriate parameters calculated using MC codes were input into Plaque Simulator. Plaque Simulator and MC users are perhaps at risk of overdosing patients up to 20% if heterogeneity corrections are used and the prescribed dose is not modified appropriately. Conclusions: Agreement within 2% was observed among conventional brachytherapy TPS and MC codes for intraocular brachytherapy dose calculations in a homogeneous water environment. In general, the magnitude of dose errors incurred by ignoring the effect of the plaque backing and Silastic insert (i.e., by using the TG-43 approach) increased with distance from the plaque's central-axis. Considering the presence of material heterogeneities in a typical eye plaque, the best method in this study for dose calculations is a verified MC simulation.

  1. Chemical Mixture Risk Assessment Additivity-Based Approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Powerpoint presentation includes additivity-based chemical mixture risk assessment methods. Basic concepts, theory and example calculations are included. Several slides discuss the use of "common adverse outcomes" in analyzing phthalate mixtures.

  2. Funding Risk Management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ottosen, Karl R.

    1989-01-01

    Describes the funding mechanism in Illinois that permits school districts to levy a separate tax to pay for risk management and tort liability. Offers practical applications for risk care management including risk care management job descriptions. (MLF)

  3. Endometrial Cancer Risk Factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... cancer? Next Topic What causes endometrial cancer? Endometrial cancer risk factors A risk factor is anything that affects your ... to obesity, which is a well-known endometrial cancer risk factor. Many scientists think this is the main way ...

  4. Risk Factors and Prevention

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Resources Risk Factors & Prevention Back to Patient Resources Risk Factors & Prevention Even people who look healthy and ... Blood Pressure , high cholesterol, diabetes, and thyroid disease. Risk Factors For Arrhythmias and Heart Disease The following ...

  5. Risk Factors for Scleroderma

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... You are here: Home For Patients Risk Factors Risk Factors for Scleroderma The cause of scleroderma is ... what biological factors contribute to scleroderma pathogenesis. Genetic Risk Scleroderma does not tend to run in families ...

  6. Risk for Travelers

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Cow Disease Chronic Wasting Disease (CWD) Prion Diseases Risk for Travelers Recommend on Facebook Tweet Share Compartir ... Jakob Disease (vCJD) by Blood and Blood Products . Risk for Travelers The current risk of acquiring vCJD ...

  7. Hepatitis Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... visit this page: About CDC.gov . Hepatitis Risk Assessment Recommend on Facebook Tweet Share Compartir Viral Hepatitis. ... at risk? Take this 5 minute Hepatitis Risk Assessment developed by the CDC and get a personalized ...

  8. Models to Assess the Bankruptcy Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simona Valeria TOMA

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Closely related to financial risk assessment, one of the main concerns of the organizations should be the evaluation of bankruptcy risk, in this period of slow economic growth. Organization bankruptcies have increased in recent years worldwide. The aim of this paper is to demonstrate that the methods and models for forecasting bankruptcy of organizations, for the bankruptcy risk assessment are seeing for the health financing of an entity in financial accounting diagnosis and that the organizations requires assessment of risks accompanying the work, in which some signals fragility (vulnerable health this and other projected bankruptcy (insolvability threatens its survival (continuity. The bankruptcy risk assessment is important for profit-seeking investors because they must know how to value a company in or near bankruptcy is an important skill, but to detect any signs of looming bankruptcy is necessary to calculate and to analyse all kinds of financial rations: working capital, profitability, debt levels and liquidity.

  9. The Architecture of Financial Risk Management Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iosif ZIMAN

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The architecture of systems dedicated to risk management is probably one of the more complex tasks to tackle in the world of finance. Financial risk has been at the center of attention since the explosive growth of financial markets and even more so after the 2008 financial crisis. At multiple levels, financial companies, financial regulatory bodies, governments and cross-national regulatory bodies, all have put the subject of financial risk in particular and the way it is calculated, managed, reported and monitored under intense scrutiny. As a result the technology underpinnings which support the implementation of financial risk systems has evolved considerably and has become one of the most complex areas involving systems and technology in the context of the financial industry. We present the main paradigms, require-ments and design considerations when undertaking the implementation of risk system and give examples of user requirements, sample product coverage and performance parameters.

  10. 46 CFR 170.090 - Calculations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... necessary to compute and plot any of the following curves as part of the calculations required in this subchapter, these plots must also be submitted: (1) Righting arm or moment curves. (2) Heeling arm or...

  11. Large Numbers and Calculators: A Classroom Activity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arcavi, Abraham; Hadas, Nurit

    1989-01-01

    Described is an activity demonstrating how a scientific calculator can be used in a mathematics classroom to introduce new content while studying a conventional topic. Examples of reading and writing large numbers, and reading hidden results are provided. (YP)

  12. Resonance integral calculations for high temperature reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Methods of calculation of resonance integrals of finite dilution and temperature are given for both, homogeneous and heterogeneous geometries, together with results obtained from these methods as applied to the design of high temperature reactors. (author)

  13. Methods of bone marrow dose calculation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Several methods of bone marrow dose calculation for photon irradiation were analised. After a critical analysis, the author proposes the adoption, by the Instituto de Radioprotecao e Dosimetria/CNEN, of Rosenstein's method for dose calculations in Radiodiagnostic examinations and Kramer's method in case of occupational irradiation. It was verified by Eckerman and Simpson that for monoenergetic gamma emitters uniformly distributed within the bone mineral of the skeleton the dose in the bone surface can be several times higher than dose in skeleton. In this way, is also proposed the Calculation of tissue-air ratios for bone surfaces in some irradiation geometries and photon energies to be included in the Rosenstein's method for organ dose calculation in Radiodiagnostic examinations. (Author)

  14. Reactor physics calculations in the Nordic countries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The seventh biennial meeting on reactor physics calculations in the Nordic countries was arranged by VTT Energy on May 8-9, 1995. 26 papers on different subjects in the field of reactor physics were presented by 45 participants representing research establishments, technical universities, utilities, consultants and suppliers. Resent development and verification of the program systems of ABB Atom, Risoe, Scandpower, Studsvik and VTT Energy were the main topic of the meeting. Benchmarking of the two assembly codes CASMO-4 and HELIOS is proceeding. Cross section data calculated with CASMO-HEX have been validated for the Loviisa reactors. On core analysis ABB atom gives a description on its latest core simulator version POLCA7 with the calculation Core Master 2 and the BWR core supervision system Core Watch. Transient calculations with HEXTRAN, HEXTRAN- PLIM, TRAB, RAMONA, SIMULATE-3K and a code based on PRESTO II/POLCA7 were also presented

  15. Slide Rule For Calculating Curing Schedules

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heater, Don

    1995-01-01

    Special-purpose slide rule devised for calculating schedules for storing and curing adhesives, sealants, and other materials characterized by known curing times and shelf lives. Prevents mistakes commonly made in determining storage and curing schedules.

  16. Quasiclassical Calculations for Wigner Functions via Multiresolution

    CERN Document Server

    Fedorova, A N; Fedorova, Antonina N.; Zeitlin, Michael G.

    2001-01-01

    We present the application of variational-wavelet analysis to numerical/analytical calculations of Wigner functions in (nonlinear) quasiclassical beam dynamics problems. (Naive) deformation quantization and multiresolution representations are the key points.

  17. Temperature calculation in fire safety engineering

    CERN Document Server

    Wickström, Ulf

    2016-01-01

    This book provides a consistent scientific background to engineering calculation methods applicable to analyses of materials reaction-to-fire, as well as fire resistance of structures. Several new and unique formulas and diagrams which facilitate calculations are presented. It focuses on problems involving high temperature conditions and, in particular, defines boundary conditions in a suitable way for calculations. A large portion of the book is devoted to boundary conditions and measurements of thermal exposure by radiation and convection. The concepts and theories of adiabatic surface temperature and measurements of temperature with plate thermometers are thoroughly explained. Also presented is a renewed method for modeling compartment fires, with the resulting simple and accurate prediction tools for both pre- and post-flashover fires. The final chapters deal with temperature calculations in steel, concrete and timber structures exposed to standard time-temperature fire curves. Useful temperature calculat...

  18. Spreadsheet Templates for Chemical Equilibrium Calculations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joshi, Bhairav D.

    1993-01-01

    Describes two general spreadsheet templates to carry out all types of one-equation chemical equilibrium calculations encountered by students in undergraduate chemistry courses. Algorithms, templates, macros, and representative examples are presented to illustrate the approach. (PR)

  19. 76 FR 71431 - Civil Penalty Calculation Methodology

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-11-17

    ... Uniform Fine Assessment (UFA) algorithm, which FMCSA currently uses for calculation of civil penalties... penalty is less than $2,000, however. In such cases, the UFA algorithm may generate a gross revenue...

  20. Nuclear structure calculations for astrophysical applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Here we present calculated results on such diverse properties as nuclear energy levels, ground-state masses and shapes, β-decay properties and fission-barrier heights. Our approach to these calculations is to use a unified theoretical framework within which the above properties can all be studied. The results are obtained in the macroscopic-microscopic approach in which a microscopic nuclear-structure single-particle model with extensions is combined with a macroscopic model, such as the liquid drop model. In this model the total potential energy of the nucleus may be calculated as a function of shape. The maxima and minima in this function correspond to such features as the ground state, fission saddle points and shape-isomeric states. Various transition rate matrix elements are determined from wave-functions calculated in the single-particle model with pairing and other relevant residual interactions taken into account

  1. Non-perturbative background field calculations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stephens, C. R.

    1988-01-01

    New methods are developed for calculating one loop functional determinants in quantum field theory. Instead of relying on a calculation of all the eigenvalues of the small fluctuation equation, these techniques exploit the ability of the proper time formalism to reformulate an infinite dimensional field theoretic problem into a finite dimensional covariant quantum mechanical analog, thereby allowing powerful tools such as the method of Jacobi fields to be used advantageously in a field theory setting. More generally the methods developed herein should be extremely valuable when calculating quantum processes in non-constant background fields, offering a utilitarian alternative to the two standard methods of calculation—perturbation theory in the background field or taking the background field into account exactly. The formalism developed also allows for the approximate calculation of covariances of partial differential equations from a knowledge of the solutions of a homogeneous ordinary differential equation.

  2. Modified equipartition calculation for supernova remnants

    CERN Document Server

    Arbutina, B; Andjelic, M M; Pavlovic, M Z; Vukotic, B

    2011-01-01

    Determination of the magnetic field strength in the interstellar medium is one of the most complex tasks of contemporary astrophysics. We can only estimate the order of magnitude of the magnetic field strength by using a few very limited methods. Besides Zeeman effect and Faraday rotation, the equipartition or the minimum-energy calculation is a widespread method for estimating magnetic field strength and energy contained in the magnetic field and cosmic ray particles by using only the radio synchrotron emission. Despite of its approximate character, it remains a useful tool, especially when there is no other data about the magnetic field in a source. In this paper we give a modified calculation which we think is more appropriate for estimating magnetic field strengths and energetics in supernova remnants (SNRs). Finally, we present calculated estimates of the magnetic field strengths for all Galactic SNRs for which the necessary observational data are available. The web application for calculation of the mag...

  3. Representation and calculation of economic uncertainties

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schjær-Jacobsen, Hans

    2002-01-01

    Management and decision making when certain information is available may be a matter of rationally choosing the optimal alternative by calculation of the utility function. When only uncertain information is available (which is most often the case) decision-making calls for more complex methods...... of representation and calculation and the basis for choosing the optimal alternative may become obscured by uncertainties of the utility function. In practice, several sources of uncertainties of the required information impede optimal decision making in the classical sense. In order to be able to better handle...... to uncertain economic numbers are discussed. When solving economic models for decision-making purposes calculation of uncertain functions will have to be carried out in addition to the basic arithmetical operations. This is a challenging numerical problem since improper methods of calculation may introduce...

  4. Relativistic Calculations for Be-like Iron

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    YANG Jian-Hui; LI Ping; ZHANG Jian-Ping; LI Hui-Li

    2008-01-01

    Relativistic configuration interaction calculations for the states of 1s22s2, 1s22s3l (l=s,p,d) and 1s22p3l (l=s,p,d) configurations of iron are carried out using relativistic configuration interaction (RCI) and multi-configuration Dirac-Fock (MCDF) method in the active interaction approach. In the present calculation, a large-scale configuration expansion was used in describing the target states. These results are extensively compared with other available calculative and experimental and observed values, the corresponding present results are in good agreement with experimental and observed values, and some differences are found with other available calculative values. Because more relativistic effects are considered than before, the present results should be more accurate and reliable.

  5. Direct calculation of wind turbine tip loss

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wood, D.H.; Okulov, Valery; Bhattacharjee, D.

    2016-01-01

    The usual method to account for a finite number of blades in blade element calculations of wind turbine performance is through a tip loss factor. Most analyses use the tip loss approximation due to Prandtl which is easily and cheaply calculated but is known to be inaccurate at low tip speed ratio....... We develop three methods for the direct calculation of the tip loss. The first is the computationally expensive calculation of the velocities induced by the helicoidal wake which requires the evaluation of infinite sums of products of Bessel functions. The second uses the asymptotic evaluation...... of those sums by Kawada. The third uses the approximation due to Okulov which avoids the sums altogether. These methods are compared to the tip loss determined independently and exactly for an ideal three-bladed rotor at tip speed ratios between zero and 15. Kawada's asymptotic approximation and Okulov...

  6. Fair and Reasonable Rate Calculation Data

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Transportation — This dataset provides guidelines for calculating the fair and reasonable rates for U.S. flag vessels carrying preference cargoes subject to regulations contained at...

  7. The Application of VaR Method to Risk Evaluation of Bank Loans%VaR方法在银行贷款风险评估中的应用

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    邹新月

    2005-01-01

    Value-at-Risk model developed recently is a mathemetical medol to measure and monitor market risk. The article focuses on discussing calculate procedure and calculate method about applying VaR means for the bank loan risk in evaluation, we make clear differentiate both the Bank for International Settlements draw credit risk reserve and VaR means calculate bank loan risk value, find VaR means in application practicality value and extensity perspective in our bank loan risk for evaluation

  8. Limit calculation in MSSM Higgs boson searches

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Berger, Joram; Caspart, Rene; Colombo, Fabio; Boer, Wim de; Frensch, Felix; Friese, Raphael; Gilbert, Andrew; Mueller, Thomas; Quast, Guenter; Treiber, Benjamin; Wolf, Roger [Institut fuer Experimentelle Kernphysik (IEKP), KIT (Germany)

    2015-07-01

    After run one of the LHC Supersymmetry still remains one of the favorite theories for physics beyond the Standard Model. In the minimal realization of Supersymmetry, the minimal supersymmetric Standard Model, five Higgs bosons exist. In my presentation I present limit calculation approaches for MSSM Higgs boson searches. The talk focuses on model dependent limit calculation by combining different charged and neutral MSSM Higgs boson searches.

  9. Software Metrics: Calculation and Optimization of Thresholds

    OpenAIRE

    Abhishek Kumar Maheswari

    2011-01-01

    In this article, we present a algorithmic method for the calculation of thresholds (the starting point for a new state) for a software metric set. To this aim, machine learning and data mining techniques are utilized. We define a data-driven methodology that can be used for efficiency optimization of existing metric sets, for the simplification of complex classification models, and for the calculation of thresholds for a metric set in an environment where no metric set yet exists. The methodo...

  10. Energy of plate tectonics calculation and projection

    OpenAIRE

    N. H. Swedan

    2013-01-01

    Mathematics and observations suggest that the energy of the geological activities resulting from plate tectonics is equal to the latent heat of melting, calculated at mantle's pressure, of the new ocean crust created at midocean ridges following sea floor spreading. This energy varies with the temperature of ocean floor, which is correlated with surface temperature. The objective of this manuscript is to calculate the force that drives plate tectonics, estimate the energy released, verify the...

  11. Calculation of the resonant ionization of helium

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Autoionizing resonances in the compound system of an electron and a helium ion are observed in kinematically-complete ionization experiments for electrons on helium atoms. The differential cross section is calculated for comparison with these experiments in an equivalent-local form of the distorted-wave impulse approximation. Resonant scattering amplitudes are calculated by a six-state momentum-space coupled-channels method. 10 refs., 1 tab., 2 figs

  12. Making calculated energy certificate for choosen building

    OpenAIRE

    Hafner, Rok

    2015-01-01

    The graduation thesis addresses four given energy efficiency certificates for the preschool in Škofja Loka, calculated according to the valid legislation and work methodology. The building in question was built in the seventies of last century and had it's efficiency improved in 2014. The state of the building before improvements has both measured and calculated efficiency certificates made using the KI Energija 2014 program, while the two energy efficiency certificates for the...

  13. Three dimensional diffusion calculations of nuclear reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This work deals with the three dimensional calculation of nuclear reactors using the code TRITON. The purposes of the work were to perform three-dimensional computations of the core of the Soreq nuclear reactor and of the power reactor ZION and to validate the TRITON code. Possible applications of the TRITON code in Soreq reactor calculations and in power reactor research are suggested. (H.K.)

  14. Efficient Finite Element Calculation of Nγ

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Clausen, Johan; Damkilde, Lars; Krabbenhøft, K.

    2007-01-01

    This paper deals with the computational aspects of the Mohr-Coulomb material model, in particular the calculation of the bearing capacity factor Nγfor a strip and a circular footing.......This paper deals with the computational aspects of the Mohr-Coulomb material model, in particular the calculation of the bearing capacity factor Nγfor a strip and a circular footing....

  15. Users enlist consultants to calculate costs, savings

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1982-05-24

    Consultants who calculate payback provide expertise and a second opinion to back up energy managers' proposals. They can lower the costs of an energy-management investment by making complex comparisons of systems and recommending the best system for a specific application. Examples of payback calculations include simple payback for a school system, a university, and a Disneyland hotel, as well as internal rate of return for a corporate office building and a chain of clothing stores. (DCK)

  16. INTERNAL CALCULATION IN TERM BUSINESS DECISION MAKING

    OpenAIRE

    Jugoslav Aničić, Miloje Jelić, Jasmina M. Đurović, Srećko Radoičić, Živojin B. Prokopović

    2014-01-01

    Business-financial decision making represent prime activity of top management. Growing complexity in the business ,market and rapid technological change require fast and appropriate answer of top management. Confident and efficient system of internal calculation gives confident base, for making financial decision and strategic as well. Companies of industrial sector in Serbia can significantly improve their business performance by improving internal calculation systems. The preservation and s...

  17. Calculation Methodology for Flexible Arithmetic Processing

    OpenAIRE

    García Chamizo, Juan Manuel; Mora Pascual, Jerónimo Manuel; Mora Mora, Higinio; Signes Pont, María Teresa

    2003-01-01

    A new operation model of flexible calculation that allows us to adjust the operation delay depending on the available time is presented. The operation method design uses look-up tables and progressive construction of the result. The increase in the operators’ granularity opens up new possibilities in calculation methods and microprocessor design. This methodology, together with the advances in technology, enables the functions of an arithmetic unit to be implemented on the basis of techniques...

  18. A revised calculational model for fission

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Atchison, F.

    1998-09-01

    A semi-empirical parametrization has been developed to calculate the fission contribution to evaporative de-excitation of nuclei with a very wide range of charge, mass and excitation-energy and also the nuclear states of the scission products. The calculational model reproduces measured values (cross-sections, mass distributions, etc.) for a wide range of fissioning systems: Nuclei from Ta to Cf, interactions involving nucleons up to medium energy and light ions. (author)

  19. VVER-related burnup credit calculations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The calculations related to a VVER burnup credit calculational benchmark proposed to the Eastern and Central European research community in collaboration with the OECD/NEA/NSC Burnup Credit Criticality Benchmark Working Group (working under WPNCS - Working Party on Nuclear Criticality Safety) are described. The results of a three-year effort by analysts from the Czech Republic, Finland, Germany, Hungary, Russia, Slovakia and the United Kingdom are summarized and commented on. (author)

  20. Realistic level density calculation for heavy nuclei

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cerf, N. [Institut de Physique Nucleaire, Orsay (France); Pichon, B. [Observatoire de Paris, Meudon (France); Rayet, M.; Arnould, M. [Institut d`Astronomie et d`Astrophysique, Bruxelles (Belgium)

    1994-12-31

    A microscopic calculation of the level density is performed, based on a combinatorial evaluation using a realistic single-particle level scheme. This calculation relies on a fast Monte Carlo algorithm, allowing to consider heavy nuclei (i.e., large shell model spaces) which could not be treated previously in combinatorial approaches. An exhaustive comparison of the predicted neutron s-wave resonance spacings with experimental data for a wide range of nuclei is presented.