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Sample records for Time series, price transmission, pork meat, co-integration analysis, Vector error correction model.

  1. COSTA RICAN MEAT VALUE CHAIN DESCRIPTION: PRICE TRANSMISSION AS A TOOL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Víctor Rodríguez Lizano

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Price transmission analysis is an increasing research topic, especially for price taking countries such as Costa Rica. We describe the beef supply chain and provide a numerical implementation of Vector Error Correction Model (VECM of price transmission for the meat market in order to observe the relationship between import prices of meat and their effects on national retail prices. To restore equilibrium, retail prices correct 8% of the error term monthly. Since the meat imports market of Costa Rica is complex, the analysis of others business partners as Nicaragua should be included in order to compare the influence of these in local retail prices

  2. Gold price effect on stock market: A Markov switching vector error correction approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wai, Phoong Seuk; Ismail, Mohd Tahir; Kun, Sek Siok

    2014-06-01

    Gold is a popular precious metal where the demand is driven not only for practical use but also as a popular investments commodity. While stock market represents a country growth, thus gold price effect on stock market behavior as interest in the study. Markov Switching Vector Error Correction Models are applied to analysis the relationship between gold price and stock market changes since real financial data always exhibit regime switching, jumps or missing data through time. Besides, there are numerous specifications of Markov Switching Vector Error Correction Models and this paper will compare the intercept adjusted Markov Switching Vector Error Correction Model and intercept adjusted heteroskedasticity Markov Switching Vector Error Correction Model to determine the best model representation in capturing the transition of the time series. Results have shown that gold price has a positive relationship with Malaysia, Thailand and Indonesia stock market and a two regime intercept adjusted heteroskedasticity Markov Switching Vector Error Correction Model is able to provide the more significance and reliable result compare to intercept adjusted Markov Switching Vector Error Correction Models.

  3. An Analysis of Decision Factors on the Price of South Korea’s Certified Emission Reductions in Use of Vector Error Correction Model

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    Sumin Park

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available This study analyzes factors affecting the price of South Korea’s Certified Emission Reduction (CER using statistical methods. CER refers to the transaction price for the amount of carbon emitted. Analysis of results found a co-integration relationship among the price of South Korea’s CER, oil price (WTI, and South Korea’s maximum electric power demand, which means that there is a long-term relationship among the three variables. Based on this result, VECM (vector error correction model analysis, impulse response function, and variance decomposition were performed. As the oil price (WTI increases, the demand for gas in power generation in Korea declines while the demand for coal increases. This leads to increased greenhouse gas (GHG; e.g., CO2 emissions and increased price of South Korea’s CERs. In addition, rising oil prices (WTI cause a decline in demand for oil products such as kerosene, which results in an increase in South Korea’s maximum power demand.

  4. Comparison of vector autoregressive (VAR) and vector error correction models (VECM) for index of ASEAN stock price

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suharsono, Agus; Aziza, Auliya; Pramesti, Wara

    2017-12-01

    Capital markets can be an indicator of the development of a country's economy. The presence of capital markets also encourages investors to trade; therefore investors need information and knowledge of which shares are better. One way of making decisions for short-term investments is the need for modeling to forecast stock prices in the period to come. Issue of stock market-stock integration ASEAN is very important. The problem is that ASEAN does not have much time to implement one market in the economy, so it would be very interesting if there is evidence whether the capital market in the ASEAN region, especially the countries of Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore and Thailand deserve to be integrated or still segmented. Furthermore, it should also be known and proven What kind of integration is happening: what A capital market affects only the market Other capital, or a capital market only Influenced by other capital markets, or a Capital market as well as affecting as well Influenced by other capital markets in one ASEAN region. In this study, it will compare forecasting of Indonesian share price (IHSG) with neighboring countries (ASEAN) including developed and developing countries such as Malaysia (KLSE), Singapore (SGE), Thailand (SETI), Philippines (PSE) to find out which stock country the most superior and influential. These countries are the founders of ASEAN and share price index owners who have close relations with Indonesia in terms of trade, especially exports and imports. Stock price modeling in this research is using multivariate time series analysis that is VAR (Vector Autoregressive) and VECM (Vector Error Correction Modeling). VAR and VECM models not only predict more than one variable but also can see the interrelations between variables with each other. If the assumption of white noise is not met in the VAR modeling, then the cause can be assumed that there is an outlier. With this modeling will be able to know the pattern of relationship

  5. The Export Supply Model of Bangladesh: An Application of Cointegration and Vector Error Correction Approaches

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    Mahmudul Mannan Toy

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available The broad objective of this study is to empirically estimate the export supply model of Bangladesh. The techniques of cointegration, Engle-Granger causality and Vector Error Correction are applied to estimate the export supply model. The econometric analysis is done by using the time series data of the variables of interest which is collected from various secondary sources. The study has empirically tested the hypothesis, long run relationship and casualty between variables of the model. The cointegration analysis shows that all the variables of the study are co-integrated at their first differences meaning that there exists long run relationship among the variables. The VECM estimation shows the dynamics of variables in the export supply function and the short run and long run elasticities of export supply with respect to each independent variable. The error correction term is found negative which indicates that any short run disequilibrium will be turned into equilibrium in the long run.

  6. Symmetry in farm-retail price transmission: pork in Malaysia

    OpenAIRE

    Tey, (John) Yeong-Sheng

    2009-01-01

    This study intends to determine the farm-retail price transmission behaviors of pork in Malaysia to serve as a good implication for pork pricing system in Malaysia. Using data from January 1997 to December 2008, both the Houck and ECM approaches were found symmetric where a change in farm price of pork was observed to have similar change in retail price of pork in Malaysia. The price setting system of pork can therefore be further described by the estimated price transmission elasticities whe...

  7. Spatial price transmission in Pakistan: The Case of Wheat and Rice Markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ahmed, U. I.; Iqbal, M. A.; Rizwan, M.; Ying, L.; Bashir, M. K.; Iqbal, M. M.; Qamar, M. R.; Nazeer, A.

    2015-01-01

    This study investigates the spatial price transmission among major wheat and rice markets of Pakistan using their monthly retail prices. For analysis Vector Error Correction Model and Co-integration approach were employed. Results showed that wheat and rice market prices are integrated. Some markets have positive or negative transmission shocks on each other due to the different geographical locations and transport infrastructure. All the wheat markets are adjusted to price changes in the long run equilibrium except few markets. Unidirectional and bidirectional causality exists between wheat and rice markets. Bad and poor infrastructure is a major impediment to price transmission among the markets. These market imperfections lead to food insecurity in the country. Government should formulate better policies and develop infrastructure towards better and efficient market function. The results of this study will help the policy makers to formulate a better policy to enhance marketing function to overcome food insecurity situation. (author)

  8. IMPACT OF TRADE OPENNESS ON OUTPUT GROWTH: CO INTEGRATION AND ERROR CORRECTION MODEL APPROACH

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Asma Arif

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available This study analyzed the long run relationship between trade openness and output growth for Pakistan using annual time series data for 1972-2010. This study follows the Engle and Granger co integration analysis and error correction approach to analyze the long run relationship between the two variables. The Error Correction Term (ECT for output growth and trade openness is significant at 5% level of significance and indicates a positive long run relation between the variables. This study has also analyzed the causality between trade openness and output growth by using granger causality test. The results of granger causality show that there is a bi-directional significant relationship between trade openness and economic growth.

  9. Testing and Inference in Nonlinear Cointegrating Vector Error Correction Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kristensen, Dennis; Rahbæk, Anders

    In this paper, we consider a general class of vector error correction models which allow for asymmetric and non-linear error correction. We provide asymptotic results for (quasi-)maximum likelihood (QML) based estimators and tests. General hypothesis testing is considered, where testing...... of non-stationary non-linear time series models. Thus the paper provides a full asymptotic theory for estimators as well as standard and non-standard test statistics. The derived asymptotic results prove to be new compared to results found elsewhere in the literature due to the impact of the estimated...... symmetric non-linear error correction considered. A simulation study shows that the fi…nite sample properties of the bootstrapped tests are satisfactory with good size and power properties for reasonable sample sizes....

  10. Testing and Inference in Nonlinear Cointegrating Vector Error Correction Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kristensen, Dennis; Rahbek, Anders

    In this paper, we consider a general class of vector error correction models which allow for asymmetric and non-linear error correction. We provide asymptotic results for (quasi-)maximum likelihood (QML) based estimators and tests. General hypothesis testing is considered, where testing...... of non-stationary non-linear time series models. Thus the paper provides a full asymptotic theory for estimators as well as standard and non-standard test statistics. The derived asymptotic results prove to be new compared to results found elsewhere in the literature due to the impact of the estimated...... symmetric non-linear error correction are considered. A simulation study shows that the finite sample properties of the bootstrapped tests are satisfactory with good size and power properties for reasonable sample sizes....

  11. A Hierarchical Bayes Error Correction Model to Explain Dynamic Effects of Price Changes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    D. Fok (Dennis); R. Paap (Richard); C. Horváth (Csilla); Ph.H.B.F. Franses (Philip Hans)

    2005-01-01

    textabstractThe authors put forward a sales response model to explain the differences in immediate and dynamic effects of promotional prices and regular prices on sales. The model consists of a vector autoregression rewritten in error-correction format which allows to disentangle the immediate

  12. BANK CAPITAL AND MACROECONOMIC SHOCKS: A PRINCIPAL COMPONENTS ANALYSIS AND VECTOR ERROR CORRECTION MODEL

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    Christian NZENGUE PEGNET

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available The recent financial turmoil has clearly highlighted the potential role of financial factors on amplification of macroeconomic developments and stressed the importance of analyzing the relationship between banks’ balance sheets and economic activity. This paper assesses the impact of the bank capital channel in the transmission of schocks in Europe on the basis of bank's balance sheet data. The empirical analysis is carried out through a Principal Component Analysis and in a Vector Error Correction Model.

  13. Price transmission for agricultural commodities in Uganda: An empirical vector autoregressive analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lassen Kaspersen, Line; Føyn, Tullik Helene Ystanes

    This paper investigates price transmission for agricultural commodities between world markets and the Ugandan market in an attempt to determine the impact of world market prices on the Ugandan market. Based on the realization that price formation is not a static concept, a dynamic vector...... price relations, i.e. the price variations between geographically separated markets in Uganda and the world markets. Our analysis indicates that food markets in Uganda, based on our study of sorghum price transmission, are not integrated into world markets, and that oil prices are a very determining...... autoregressive (VAR) model is presented. The prices of Robusta coffee and sorghum are examined, as both of these crops are important for the domestic economy of Uganda – Robusta as a cash crop, mainly traded internationally, and sorghum for consumption at household level. The analysis focuses on the spatial...

  14. Phase correction and error estimation in InSAR time series analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Y.; Fattahi, H.; Amelung, F.

    2017-12-01

    During the last decade several InSAR time series approaches have been developed in response to the non-idea acquisition strategy of SAR satellites, such as large spatial and temporal baseline with non-regular acquisitions. The small baseline tubes and regular acquisitions of new SAR satellites such as Sentinel-1 allows us to form fully connected networks of interferograms and simplifies the time series analysis into a weighted least square inversion of an over-determined system. Such robust inversion allows us to focus more on the understanding of different components in InSAR time-series and its uncertainties. We present an open-source python-based package for InSAR time series analysis, called PySAR (https://yunjunz.github.io/PySAR/), with unique functionalities for obtaining unbiased ground displacement time-series, geometrical and atmospheric correction of InSAR data and quantifying the InSAR uncertainty. Our implemented strategy contains several features including: 1) improved spatial coverage using coherence-based network of interferograms, 2) unwrapping error correction using phase closure or bridging, 3) tropospheric delay correction using weather models and empirical approaches, 4) DEM error correction, 5) optimal selection of reference date and automatic outlier detection, 6) InSAR uncertainty due to the residual tropospheric delay, decorrelation and residual DEM error, and 7) variance-covariance matrix of final products for geodetic inversion. We demonstrate the performance using SAR datasets acquired by Cosmo-Skymed and TerraSAR-X, Sentinel-1 and ALOS/ALOS-2, with application on the highly non-linear volcanic deformation in Japan and Ecuador (figure 1). Our result shows precursory deformation before the 2015 eruptions of Cotopaxi volcano, with a maximum uplift of 3.4 cm on the western flank (fig. 1b), with a standard deviation of 0.9 cm (fig. 1a), supporting the finding by Morales-Rivera et al. (2017, GRL); and a post-eruptive subsidence on the same

  15. Farm-retail price spread for pork in Malaysia

    OpenAIRE

    Tey, (John) Yeong-Sheng; Randy, Stringer; Wendy, Umberger

    2009-01-01

    The price difference between farm and retail levels is called price spread, which is constituted mostly by marketing costs and profits. From the price spread, this paper intends to estimate elasticities of price transmission for pork in Malaysia via different empirical model specifications of markup pricing model. Using data from January 1997 to December 2007, a quantitative analysis of farm-to-retail price spreads was undertaken for pork in Malaysia. It was found that retail price is the onl...

  16. Hedonic Retail Beef and Pork Product Prices

    OpenAIRE

    Parcell, Joseph L.; Schroeder, Ted C.

    2007-01-01

    Consumer-level hedonic models are estimated to determine factors affecting retail pork and beef meat cuts. Results indicate that brand premium and discount varies across private, national, and store brands and that brand premium varies across meat cuts carrying the same brand name. Product size discounts are linear for beef and nonlinear for pork, meat items on sale are significantly discounted to non-sale items, specialty stores typically will not garner higher prices than supermarket/grocer...

  17. Short-term electricity prices forecasting based on support vector regression and Auto-regressive integrated moving average modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Che Jinxing; Wang Jianzhou

    2010-01-01

    In this paper, we present the use of different mathematical models to forecast electricity price under deregulated power. A successful prediction tool of electricity price can help both power producers and consumers plan their bidding strategies. Inspired by that the support vector regression (SVR) model, with the ε-insensitive loss function, admits of the residual within the boundary values of ε-tube, we propose a hybrid model that combines both SVR and Auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models to take advantage of the unique strength of SVR and ARIMA models in nonlinear and linear modeling, which is called SVRARIMA. A nonlinear analysis of the time-series indicates the convenience of nonlinear modeling, the SVR is applied to capture the nonlinear patterns. ARIMA models have been successfully applied in solving the residuals regression estimation problems. The experimental results demonstrate that the model proposed outperforms the existing neural-network approaches, the traditional ARIMA models and other hybrid models based on the root mean square error and mean absolute percentage error.

  18. Replacement of Pork Meat with Pork Head Meat for Frankfurters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, Yun-Sang; Hwang, Ko-Eun; Kim, Hyun-Wook; Song, Dong-Heon; Jeon, Ki-Hong; Park, Jong-Dae; Sung, Jung-Min; Kim, Young-Boong; Kim, Cheon-Jei

    2016-01-01

    The effect of reducing pork meat concentrations from 50% to 30% and replacing it with up to 20% pork head meat on chemical composition, cooking characteristics, physicochemical and textural properties, apparent viscosity, and sensory characteristics of frankfurters was determined. The highest moisture content in frankfurters was found in the control and T1 (frankfurter with 45% pork meat + 5% pork head). Protein and fat contents in frankfurters with pork head meat added were significantly (ppork head meat was increased from 0% to 20%, cooking loss, total expressible fluid separation, fat separation, and pH of frankfurters were increased, while the lightness, redness, yellowness, and apparent viscosity of frankfurters were decreased. Ash contents, cohesiveness, color, and tenderness of sensory characteristics of frankfurters added with different amounts of pork meat or pork head meat were not significantly (p>0.05) different from those of the control or there treatments. Frankfurters in T4 (frankfurter with 30% pork meat + 20% pork head) had the lowest (p0.05) from that in the control. Frankfurters with higher pork head meat concentrations had lower flavor, juiciness, and overall acceptability scores. Therefore, replacing pork meat with pork head meat in the formulation could successfully produce results similar to those of control frankfurters. The best results were obtained when 10% pork head meat was used to replace pork meat. PMID:27621683

  19. Price transmission in the trans-atlantic northern shrimp value chain

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Max; Ankamah-Yeboah, Isaac; Staahl, Lisa

    2018-01-01

    affect northern shrimp fisheries. In this paper, price transmission in the trans-Atlantic northern shrimp value chain is analysed using a Vector Auto Regressive model in Error Correction form. Cointegration, the Law of One Price (LOP) and weak exogeneity are tested. The results reveal linkages from......Recent research has found that markets for farmed shrimp and wild-caught northern shrimp in Europe are integrated, indicating that northern shrimp prices are affected by total supply and demand of shrimp. Thus, the continued growth of global aquaculture production and associated price decline...

  20. Forecasting the price of gold: An error correction approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kausik Gangopadhyay

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Gold prices in the Indian market may be influenced by a multitude of factors such as the value of gold in investment decisions, as an inflation hedge, and in consumption motives. We develop a model to explain and forecast gold prices in India, using a vector error correction model. We identify investment decision and inflation hedge as prime movers of the data. We also present out-of-sample forecasts of our model and the related properties.

  1. [Study on modeling method of total viable count of fresh pork meat based on hyperspectral imaging system].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Wei; Peng, Yan-Kun; Zhang, Xiao-Li

    2010-02-01

    Once the total viable count (TVC) of bacteria in fresh pork meat exceeds a certain number, it will become pathogenic bacteria. The present paper is to explore the feasibility of hyperspectral imaging technology combined with relevant modeling method for the prediction of TVC in fresh pork meat. For the certain kind of problem that has remarkable nonlinear characteristic and contains few samples, as well as the problem that has large amount of data used to express the information of spectrum and space dimension, it is crucial to choose a logical modeling method in order to achieve good prediction result. Based on the comparative result of partial least-squares regression (PLSR), artificial neural networks (ANNs) and least square support vector machines (LS-SVM), the authors found that the PLSR method was helpless for nonlinear regression problem, and the ANNs method couldn't get approving prediction result for few samples problem, however the prediction models based on LS-SVM can give attention to the little training error and the favorable generalization ability as soon as possible, and can make them well synchronously. Therefore LS-SVM was adopted as the modeling method to predict the TVC of pork meat. Then the TVC prediction model was constructed using all the 512 wavelength data acquired by the hyperspectral imaging system. The determination coefficient between the TVC obtained with the standard plate count for bacterial colonies method and the LS-SVM prediction result was 0.987 2 and 0.942 6 for the samples of calibration set and prediction set respectively, also the root mean square error of calibration (RMSEC) and the root mean square error of prediction (RMSEP) was 0.207 1 and 0.217 6 individually, and the result was considerably better than that of MLR, PLSR and ANNs method. This research demonstrates that using the hyperspectral imaging system coupled with the LS-SVM modeling method is a valid means for quick and nondestructive determination of TVC of pork

  2. Dynamic modelling of energy demand: A guided tour through the jungle of unit roots and co-integration

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Engsted, T; Bentzen, J

    1997-04-01

    This paper provides a detailed survey of the recent literature on unit roots and co-integration, and relates the concepts to the estimation of energy demand relationships. The special features and properties of non-stationary time-series are discussed, including the relevant asymptotic theory. The most often used tests for unit roots and co-integration - and various techniques for estimating co-integration relationships - are described, and the connection between co-integration and error-correction models is explored. Further, we revisit the autoregressive distributed lag (ADL) model, which is very often used in energy demand studies, and state under which conditions this model provides a valid framework for estimating income- and price- elasticities, when time-series are non-stationary. Throughout, tests and estimation techniques are illustrated using data on Danish energy consumption, prices, income, and temperature. (au) 71 refs.

  3. Oil price fluctuations and employment in Kern County: A Vector Error Correction approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Michieka, Nyakundi M.; Gearhart, Richard

    2015-01-01

    Kern County is one of the country's largest oil producing regions, in which the oil industry employs a significant fraction of the labor force in the county. In this study, the short- and long-run effects of oil price fluctuations on employment in Kern County are investigated using a Vector Error Correction model (VECM). Empirical results over the period 1990:01 to 2015:03 suggest long-run causality running from both WTI and Brent oil prices to employment. No causality is detected in the short-run. Kern County should formulate appropriate policies, which take into account the fact that changes in oil prices have long-term effects on employment rather than short term. - Highlights: • Kern County is California's largest oil producing region. • Historical data has shown increased employment during periods of high oil prices. • We study the short- and long run effects of oil prices on employment in Kern County. • Results suggest long run causality running from WTI and Brent to employment. • No causality is detected in the short run.

  4. Replacement of Pork Meat with Pork Head Meat for Frankfurters

    OpenAIRE

    Choi, Yun-Sang; Hwang, Ko-Eun; Kim, Hyun-Wook; Song, Dong-Heon; Jeon, Ki-Hong; Park, Jong-Dae; Sung, Jung-Min; Kim, Young-Boong; Kim, Cheon-Jei

    2016-01-01

    The effect of reducing pork meat concentrations from 50% to 30% and replacing it with up to 20% pork head meat on chemical composition, cooking characteristics, physicochemical and textural properties, apparent viscosity, and sensory characteristics of frankfurters was determined. The highest moisture content in frankfurters was found in the control and T1 (frankfurter with 45% pork meat + 5% pork head). Protein and fat contents in frankfurters with pork head meat added were significantly (p0...

  5. Nondestructive measurement of total volatile basic nitrogen (TVB-N) in pork meat by integrating near infrared spectroscopy, computer vision and electronic nose techniques.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Lin; Zhao, Jiewen; Chen, Quansheng; Zhang, Yanhua

    2014-02-15

    Total volatile basic nitrogen (TVB-N) content is an important reference index for evaluating pork freshness. This paper attempted to measure TVB-N content in pork meat using integrating near infrared spectroscopy (NIRS), computer vision (CV), and electronic nose (E-nose) techniques. In the experiment, 90 pork samples with different freshness were collected for data acquisition by three different techniques, respectively. Then, the individual characteristic variables were extracted from each sensor. Next, principal component analysis (PCA) was used to achieve data fusion based on these characteristic variables from 3 different sensors data. Back-propagation artificial neural network (BP-ANN) was used to construct the model for TVB-N content prediction, and the top principal components (PCs) were extracted as the input of model. The result of the model was achieved as follows: the root mean square error of prediction (RMSEP) = 2.73 mg/100g and the determination coefficient (R(p)(2)) = 0.9527 in the prediction set. Compared with single technique, integrating three techniques, in this paper, has its own superiority. This work demonstrates that it has the potential in nondestructive detection of TVB-N content in pork meat using integrating NIRS, CV and E-nose, and data fusion from multi-technique could significantly improve TVB-N prediction performance. Copyright © 2013. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  6. A comparison between MS-VECM and MS-VECMX on economic time series data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phoong, Seuk-Wai; Ismail, Mohd Tahir; Sek, Siok-Kun

    2014-07-01

    Multivariate Markov switching models able to provide useful information on the study of structural change data since the regime switching model can analyze the time varying data and capture the mean and variance in the series of dependence structure. This paper will investigates the oil price and gold price effects on Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand and Indonesia stock market returns. Two forms of Multivariate Markov switching models are used namely the mean adjusted heteroskedasticity Markov Switching Vector Error Correction Model (MSMH-VECM) and the mean adjusted heteroskedasticity Markov Switching Vector Error Correction Model with exogenous variable (MSMH-VECMX). The reason for using these two models are to capture the transition probabilities of the data since real financial time series data always exhibit nonlinear properties such as regime switching, cointegrating relations, jumps or breaks passing the time. A comparison between these two models indicates that MSMH-VECM model able to fit the time series data better than the MSMH-VECMX model. In addition, it was found that oil price and gold price affected the stock market changes in the four selected countries.

  7. Demand for natural gas from industries in Brazil: an estimate of the price elasticity, income elasticity and forecast for 2008-2012 using VEC (Vector Error Correction) Model; Demanda por gas natural no Brasil: um estudo sobre as elasticidades preco e renda de longo prazo do segmento industrial e estimativa para o periodo de 2008-2012 usando modelo VEC (Vector Error Correction)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cabral, Renata [Universidade de Sao Paulo (USP), SP (Brazil). Faculdade de Economia e Administracao; Parente, Virginia [Universidade de Sao Paulo (USP), SP (Brazil). Inst. de Eletrotecnica e Energia

    2008-07-01

    The purpose of the present study is to estimate the long-run elasticities - manly price and income - of the demand for gas natural in the industrial category. After determining that the series under study were non-stationary, we chose to use the cointegration approach, estimating a Vector Error Correction Model (VEC Model). The obtained results show that the price elasticity for industrial sector in Brazil is higher than income elasticity. Although both of then is near to one, the price elasticity is higher that one unit while income elasticity is slightly lower. Predictions for the gas natural consumption in Brazil for industrials for 2008-2012 period are also made. (author)

  8. Comparison of extended mean-reversion and time series models for electricity spot price simulation considering negative prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Keles, Dogan; Genoese, Massimo; Möst, Dominik; Fichtner, Wolf

    2012-01-01

    This paper evaluates different financial price and time series models, such as mean reversion, autoregressive moving average (ARMA), integrated ARMA (ARIMA) and general autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) process, usually applied for electricity price simulations. However, as these models are developed to describe the stochastic behaviour of electricity prices, they are extended by a separate data treatment for the deterministic components (trend, daily, weekly and annual cycles) of electricity spot prices. Furthermore price jumps are considered and implemented within a regime-switching model. Since 2008 market design allows for negative prices at the European Energy Exchange, which also occurred for several hours in the last years. Up to now, only a few financial and time series approaches exist, which are able to capture negative prices. This paper presents a new approach incorporating negative prices. The evaluation of the different approaches presented points out that the mean reversion and the ARMA models deliver the lowest mean root square error between simulated and historical electricity spot prices gained from the European Energy Exchange. These models posses also lower mean average errors than GARCH models. Hence, they are more suitable to simulate well-fitting price paths. Furthermore it is shown that the daily structure of historical price curves is better captured applying ARMA or ARIMA processes instead of mean-reversion or GARCH models. Another important outcome of the paper is that the regime-switching approach and the consideration of negative prices via the new proposed approach lead to a significant improvement of the electricity price simulation. - Highlights: ► Considering negative prices improves the results of time-series and financial models for electricity prices. ► Regime-switching approach captures the jumps and base prices quite well. ► Removing and separate modelling of deterministic annual, weekly and daily

  9. PROCESS OF GLOBAL SHOCKS TRANSMISSION TO DOMESTIC FOOD PRICE LEVEL: CASE OF BANGLADESH

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fakir Azmal Huda

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available The world experienced in dramatic price surge of food commodities since mid of 2007 to 2008. It was claimed that the crisis were being mainly for backdrop of global shocks in food and energy price. But how the shocks come to domestic market from external sources is a researchable phenomenon. Surprisingly few attempts have been made to systematically analysis of shock transmission from international to domestic market. The study analyzed the effect of global commodity market factors and domestic exchange rate development on domestic food price in Bangladesh. A bi-variants co-integration approach was applied for the analysis of shock transmission. Finally an error correction model was developed. The overall magnitudes of the pass through suggest that only 46 per cent of the total world shock pass-through in domestic economy.

  10. Consumer satisfaction with pork meat and derived products in five European countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Resano, Helena; Perez-Cueto, Federico J A; de Barcellos, Marcia D; Veflen-Olsen, Nina; Grunert, Klaus G; Verbeke, Wim

    2011-02-01

    This paper investigates consumers' satisfaction level with pork meat and derived products in five European countries. Data were collected through a cross-sectional web-based survey in Belgium, Denmark, Germany, Greece, and Poland during January 2008 with a total sample of 2437 consumers. Data included socio-demographics and questions regarding satisfaction with 27 common pork-based products; classified into fresh pork, processed pork and pork meat products. Satisfaction was evaluated in terms of overall satisfaction, as well as satisfaction with health-giving qualities, price, convenience and taste. Logistic regression analyses showed taste as the main determinant of satisfaction, followed by convenience. Healthfulness is not a significant driver of overall satisfaction. Price influences satisfaction with fresh pork more than with processed products. Tasty pork, easy to prepare and consume, with adequate promotion of its healthfulness, and with a good price/quality relationship appears to be the key factor to satisfy pork consumers. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Testing and inference in nonlinear cointegrating vector error correction models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kristensen, D.; Rahbek, A.

    2013-01-01

    We analyze estimators and tests for a general class of vector error correction models that allows for asymmetric and nonlinear error correction. For a given number of cointegration relationships, general hypothesis testing is considered, where testing for linearity is of particular interest. Under...... the null of linearity, parameters of nonlinear components vanish, leading to a nonstandard testing problem. We apply so-called sup-tests to resolve this issue, which requires development of new(uniform) functional central limit theory and results for convergence of stochastic integrals. We provide a full...... asymptotic theory for estimators and test statistics. The derived asymptotic results prove to be nonstandard compared to results found elsewhere in the literature due to the impact of the estimated cointegration relations. This complicates implementation of tests motivating the introduction of bootstrap...

  12. Time-series analysis of Nigeria rice supply and demand: Error ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The study examined a time-series analysis of Nigeria rice supply and demand with a view to determining any long-run equilibrium between them using the Error Correction Model approach (ECM). The data used for the study represents the annual series of 1960-2007 (47 years) for rice supply and demand in Nigeria, ...

  13. Consumer satisfaction with pork meat and derived products in five EU countries

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Resano, Helena; Perez-Cueto, Federico J. A.; de Barcellos, Marcia Dutra

    2011-01-01

    This paper investigates consumers' satisfaction level with pork meat and derived products in 26 five European countries. Data were collected through a cross-sectional web-based survey in Belgium, Denmark, Germany, Greece, and Poland during January 2008 with a total sample of 2437 consumers. Data...... included socio-demographics and questions regarding satisfaction with 27 common pork-based products; classified into fresh pork, processed pork and pork meat products. Satisfaction was evaluated in terms of overall satisfaction, as well as satisfaction with health-giving qualities, price, convenience...... and taste. Logistic regression analyses showed taste as the main determinant of satisfaction, followed by convenience. Healthfulness is not a significant driver of overall satisfaction. Price influences satisfaction with fresh pork more than with processed products. Tasty pork, easy to prepare and consume...

  14. A vector autoregressive model for electricity prices subject to long memory and regime switching

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haldrup, Niels; Nielsen, Frank S.; Nielsen, Morten Oerregaard

    2010-01-01

    A regime dependent VAR model is suggested that allows long memory (fractional integration) in each of the observed regime states as well as the possibility of fractional cointegration. The model is motivated by the dynamics of electricity prices where the transmission of power is subject to occasional congestion periods. For a system of bilateral prices non-congestion means that electricity prices are identical whereas congestion makes prices depart. Hence, the joint price dynamics implies switching between a univariate price process under non-congestion and a bivariate price process under congestion. At the same time, it is an empirical regularity that electricity prices tend to show a high degree of long memory, and thus that prices may be fractionally cointegrated. Analysis of Nord Pool data shows that even though the prices are identical under non-congestion, the prices are not, in general, fractionally cointegrated in the congestion state. Hence, in most cases price convergence is a property following from regime switching rather than a conventional error correction mechanism. Finally, the suggested model is shown to deliver forecasts that are more precise compared to competing models. (author)

  15. Price Conduction Mechanism of China’s Wheat Industry Chain Based on VECM

    OpenAIRE

    ZHU, Haiyan

    2015-01-01

    With the aid of the VECM (vector error correction model), this paper studied dynamic effect of wheat price and flour price conduction mechanism in the wheat industry chain. Study results indicate that in a long term, wheat price and flour price have equilibrium relationship. Through threshold co-integration test, it found that there is no threshold co-integration relationship between wheat price and flour price. This can be adjusted using the linear error correction mode (LECM). In a short te...

  16. Forecasting Construction Tender Price Index in Ghana using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average with Exogenous Variables Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ernest Kissi

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Prices of construction resources keep on fluctuating due to unstable economic situations that have been experienced over the years. Clients knowledge of their financial commitments toward their intended project remains the basis for their final decision. The use of construction tender price index provides a realistic estimate at the early stage of the project. Tender price index (TPI is influenced by various economic factors, hence there are several statistical techniques that have been employed in forecasting. Some of these include regression, time series, vector error correction among others. However, in recent times the integrated modelling approach is gaining popularity due to its ability to give powerful predictive accuracy. Thus, in line with this assumption, the aim of this study is to apply autoregressive integrated moving average with exogenous variables (ARIMAX in modelling TPI. The results showed that ARIMAX model has a better predictive ability than the use of the single approach. The study further confirms the earlier position of previous research of the need to use the integrated model technique in forecasting TPI. This model will assist practitioners to forecast the future values of tender price index. Although the study focuses on the Ghanaian economy, the findings can be broadly applicable to other developing countries which share similar economic characteristics.

  17. Compositional Signatures of Conventional, Free Range, and Organic Pork Meat Using Fingerprint Techniques

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gislene B. Oliveira

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Consumers’ interest in the way meat is produced is increasing in Europe. The resulting free range and organic meat products retail at a higher price, but are difficult to differentiate from their counterparts. To ascertain authenticity and prevent fraud, relevant markers need to be identified and new analytical methodology developed. The objective of this pilot study was to characterize pork belly meats of different animal welfare classes by their fatty acid (Fatty Acid Methyl Ester—FAME, non-volatile compound (electrospray ionization-tandem mass spectrometry—ESI-MS/MS, and volatile compound (proton-transfer-reaction mass spectrometry—PTR-MS fingerprints. Well-defined pork belly meat samples (13 conventional, 15 free range, and 13 organic originating from the Netherlands were subjected to analysis. Fingerprints appeared to be specific for the three categories, and resulted in 100%, 95.3%, and 95.3% correct identity predictions of training set samples for FAME, ESI-MS/MS, and PTR-MS respectively and slightly lower scores for the validation set. Organic meat was also well discriminated from the other two categories with 100% success rates for the training set for all three analytical approaches. Ten out of 25 FAs showed significant differences in abundance between organic meat and the other categories, free range meat differed significantly for 6 out of the 25 FAs. Overall, FAME fingerprinting presented highest discrimination power.

  18. Compositional Signatures of Conventional, Free Range, and Organic Pork Meat Using Fingerprint Techniques.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oliveira, Gislene B; Alewijn, Martin; Boerrigter-Eenling, Rita; van Ruth, Saskia M

    2015-08-25

    Consumers' interest in the way meat is produced is increasing in Europe. The resulting free range and organic meat products retail at a higher price, but are difficult to differentiate from their counterparts. To ascertain authenticity and prevent fraud, relevant markers need to be identified and new analytical methodology developed. The objective of this pilot study was to characterize pork belly meats of different animal welfare classes by their fatty acid (Fatty Acid Methyl Ester-FAME), non-volatile compound (electrospray ionization-tandem mass spectrometry-ESI-MS/MS), and volatile compound (proton-transfer-reaction mass spectrometry-PTR-MS) fingerprints. Well-defined pork belly meat samples (13 conventional, 15 free range, and 13 organic) originating from the Netherlands were subjected to analysis. Fingerprints appeared to be specific for the three categories, and resulted in 100%, 95.3%, and 95.3% correct identity predictions of training set samples for FAME, ESI-MS/MS, and PTR-MS respectively and slightly lower scores for the validation set. Organic meat was also well discriminated from the other two categories with 100% success rates for the training set for all three analytical approaches. Ten out of 25 FAs showed significant differences in abundance between organic meat and the other categories, free range meat differed significantly for 6 out of the 25 FAs. Overall, FAME fingerprinting presented highest discrimination power.

  19. Cointegration and error correction modelling of agricultural commodity trade: The case of ASEAN agricultural exports to the EU

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. NIEMI

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available The objecti e of this study is to increase our understanding of the specification and estimation of agricultural commodity trade models as well as to provide instruments for trade policy analysis. More specifically,the aim is to build a set of dynamic,theory-based econometric models which are able to capture both short-run and long-run effects of income and price changes,and which can be used for prediction and policy simulation under alternati e assumed conditions.A relati ely unrestricted,data determined,econometric modelling approach based on the error correction mechanism is used,in order to emphasise the importance of dynamics of trade functions.Econometric models are constructed for se en agricultural commodities –cassa a,cocoa,coconut oil,palm oil,pepper, rubber,and tea –exported from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEANto the European Union (EU.With the aim of providing broad commodity co erage,the intent is to explore whether the chosen modelling approach is able to catch the essentials of the behavioural relationships underlying the specialised nature of each commodity market. The import demand analysis of the study examines two key features:(1the response of EU ’s agricultural commodity imports to income and price changes,and (2the length of time required for this response to occur.The estimations of the export demand relationships provide tests whether the exporters ’ market shares are influenced by the le el of relati e export price,and whether exports are affected by ariations in the rate of growth of imports.The export supply analysis examines the relati e influence of real price and some non-price factors in stimulating the supply of exports.The lag distribution (the shape and length of the lagis found to be ery critical in export supply relationships,since the effects of price changes usually take a long time to work themselves through and since the transmission of the price effects can be complex.The set of

  20. Which product characteristics are preferred by Chinese consumers when choosing pork? A conjoint analysis on perceived quality of selected pork attributes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Xiu Q; Verkuil, Julia M; Reinbach, Helene C; Meinert, Lene

    2017-05-01

    Due to the economic growth achieved by China over the past 20 years, Chinese consumers have changed their purchasing behavior regarding meat. Instead of buying locally produced pork, they are increasingly willing to purchase imported pork. A conjoint analysis investigated how intrinsic pork attributes ( fat content and processing) and extrinsic pork attributes ( origin , price , and packaging ) relate to the perceived quality of pork and the choices made by Chinese consumers. A questionnaire distributed among a sample of Chinese consumers ( n  = 81) revealed that processing (fresh/frozen) is the most important determinant of pork choice (36%), followed by fat content (27%), origin (18%), price (12%), and packaging (6.6%). Estimates of utility showed that Chinese consumers value fresh pork highly (0.147), followed by lean pork (0.111) and pork imported from countries other than China (0.073). The findings indicate that Chinese consumer's value both intrinsic and extrinsic attributes, and these results may help the meat industry improve China's competitive meat market by developing new and more products that are tailored to the needs of the consumer.

  1. Integrated approach to transmission services pricing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yu, C.W.; David, A.K.

    1999-01-01

    The paper presents an intuitively logical split between: (a) embedded, (b) operating, and (c) expansion cost based pricing and methodologies for implementation, for transmission services. A conceptually straightforward mechanism for the equitable allocation of transmission network embedded cost recovery based on capacity-use and reliability benefit is proposed, expansion cost is charged on a long-run marginal cost basis and finally, operating cost recovery is based on short-run marginal pricing. This is followed by co-ordinating these alternatives and integrating the pricing mechanisms to achieve appropriate price signals for bulk power users of transmission systems. (author)

  2. An econometric time-series analysis of global CO2 concentrations and emissions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cohen, B.C.; Labys, W.C.; Eliste, P.

    2001-01-01

    This paper extends previous work on the econometric modelling of CO 2 concentrations and emissions. The importance of such work rests in the fact that models of the Cohen-Labys variety represent the only alternative to scientific or physical models of CO 2 accumulations whose parameters are inferred rather than estimated. The stimulation for this study derives from the recent discovery of oscillations and cycles in the net biospheric flux of CO 2 . A variety of time series tests is thus used to search for the presence of normality, stationarity, cyclicality and stochastic processes in global CO 2 emissions and concentrations series. Given the evidence for cyclicality of a short-run nature in the spectra of these series, both structural time series and error correction model are applied to confirm the frequency and amplitude of these cycles. Our results suggest new possibilities for determining equilibrium levels of CO 2 concentrations and subsequently revising stabilization policies. (Author)

  3. CO-INTEGRATION DAN CONTAGION EFFECT ANTARA PASAR SAHAM SYARIAH DI INDONESIA, MALAYSIA, EROPA, DAN AMERIKA SAAT TERJADINYA KRISIS YUNANI

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tara Ninta Ikrima

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis dampak krisis di Yunani terhadap pergerakan harga saham syariah di Indonesia, Malaysia, Amerika Serikat, dan Eropa. Selain itu, penelitian ini juga menganalisis co-integrasi dan efek penularan (contagion effect yang terjadi selama periode ini. Penelitian ini dilakukan karena ada perbedaan antara hasil penelitian tentang US Subprime Mortgage periode krisis tentang dampak pasar saham syariah. Penelitian ini menggunakan VAR (Vector Auto Regressive dan VECM (Vector Error Correction Model untuk menguji hipotesis dengan EViews 6 digunakan sebagai alat analisis statistik. Data yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah indeks harga saham penutupan mingguan yang diambil dari perwakilan pasar saham syariah masing-masing negara, JII untuk Indonesia, DJIMY untuk Malaysia, DJIM US, dan MSCI untuk Eropa. Hasilnya menunjukkan bahwa Krisis Yunani tidak memiliki pengaruh terhadap pergerakan harga saham Islam di AS, Malaysia, Indonesia, dan Eropa. Namun ada co-integrasi dan penularan berpengaruh terhadap harga saham Islam di empat wilayah saat krisis Yunani itu terjadi. The objective of the study was to analyze the Greece’s crisis impacts toward the movement of Islamic stock prices in Indonesia, Malaysia, USA, and Europe. Moreover, this study also analyzed co-integration and contagion effect which occurred during the period. VAR (Vector Auto Regressive and VECM (Vector Error Correction Model with eviews 6 were used to test the hypothesis as the statistical analysis tools. The data of this study were the weekly closing stock price indices taken from the representatives of Islamic stock markets of each country; JII in Indonesia, DJIMY in Malaysia, DJIM in USA, and MSCI in Europe. The result showed that the Greece’s crisis did not give any influence toward the movement of Islamic stock prices in USA, Malaysia, Indonesia, and Europe. However; there were co-integration and contagion effect which influenced on Islamic

  4. The Effects of Oil Price Changes And Exchange Rate Volatility On Unemployment: Evidence From Malaysia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohd Shahidan Shaari

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The study aims to examine the effects of oil price and exchange rate on unemployment in Malaysia. The empirical analysis commence by analyzing the time series property of data. The Johansen VAR-based co-integration technique was applied to examine the long run relationship between exchange rate, oil price and unemployment and found the long run relationship does exist. The vector error correction model was performed to check the short run dynamics and found that the short run dynamics are influenced by the estimated long run equilibrium. Granger causality was done and found that oil price does not affect unemployment but exchange rate has an influence on unemployment. Therefore, putting the exchange rate under control should be implemented to control unemployment.

  5. The crucial relationship among energy commodity prices: Evidence from the Spanish electricity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moutinho, Victor; Vieira, Joel; Carrizo Moreira, Antonio

    2011-01-01

    The main purpose of this article is twofold to analyze: (a) the long-term relation among the commodities prices and between spot electricity market price and commodity prices, and (b) the short-term dynamics among commodity prices and between electricity prices and commodity prices. Data between 2002 and 2005 from the Spanish electricity market was used. Econometric methods were used in the analysis of the commodity spot price, namely the vector autoregression model, the vector error correction model and the granger causality test. The co-integration approach was used to analyze the long-term relationship between the common stochastic trends of four fossil fuel prices. One of the findings in the long-term relation is that the prices of fuel and the prices of Brent are intertwined, though the prices of Brent ten to 'move' to reestablish the price equilibrium. Another finding is that the price of electricity is explained by the evolution of the natural gas series. - Highlights: → We model energy commodity prices in the Spanish electricity market. → We examine the short and long-term relationships among commodities prices. → We examine short and long-term relationships using co-integration techniques. → We found that in the long run the prices of fuel and Brent are intertwined. → The evolution of price of electricity is explained by the evolution of price of gas.

  6. The co-integration analysis of factors affecting electricity consumption : a case study of Thailand

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kongruang, C. [Thaksin Univ., Songkhla (Thailand). Faculty of Economics and Business; Waewsak, J. [Thaksin Univ., Phatthalung (Thailand). Dept. of Physics, Solar and Wind Energy Research Lab

    2008-07-01

    A study was conducted in which the main determinants of electricity demand in Thailand were investigated. Time-series analysis methods were used, notably the unit root test, the Johansen co-integration test and an error correction model (ECM). The objective was to determine the factors affecting short and long-run electricity consumption. This paper presented annual time series data from 1971 to 2006. The unit root test revealed that all series are non-stationary. The Johansen co-integration test revealed the co-integration between variables and the existence of the long-term relationship between them. Electricity consumption accelerated with the increase in gross domestic product (GDP) and population. In contrast, an increase in commodity price would reduce electricity consumption. The coefficient of population indicated that an increase of 1 million in total population would result in an increase in electricity consumption of 0.099 per cent. Last, the results of ECM revealed that nearly 21 per cent of long-term disequilibrium is adjusted to the current period. The factors that affect electricity consumption include GDP growth, inflation rate and population growth. It was concluded that Thailand should prepare for additional power generation from clean energy sources such as solar, biomass and wind energy. Thailand's Energy Policy and Planning Office revealed that electricity consumption in 2008 would be over 130,000 GWh with per capita consumption at nearly 2,000 kWh. The power peak demand will be nearly 24,000 MW in 2008. This result was based on the forecasting model that considered only GDP growth. However, electricity consumption depends not only on the GDP growth, but also upon the other key variables such as population, electricity selling price, consumer price index and temperature. 17 refs., 5 tabs., 4 figs.

  7. A Phillips curve interpretation of error-correction models of the wage and price dynamics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Harck, Søren H.

    -correction setting, which actually seems to capture the wage and price dynamics of many large- scale econometric models quite well, is fully compatible with the notion of an old-fashioned Phillips curve with finite slope. It is shown how the steady-state impact of various shocks to the model can be profitably...... This paper presents a model of employment, distribution and inflation in which a modern error correction specification of the nominal wage and price dynamics (referring to claims on income by workers and firms) occupies a prominent role. It is brought out, explicitly, how this rather typical error...

  8. A Phillips curve interpretation of error-correction models of the wage and price dynamics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Harck, Søren H.

    2009-01-01

    -correction setting, which actually seems to capture the wage and price dynamics of many large- scale econometric models quite well, is fully compatible with the notion of an old-fashioned Phillips curve with finite slope. It is shown how the steady-state impact of various shocks to the model can be profitably......This paper presents a model of employment, distribution and inflation in which a modern error correction specification of the nominal wage and price dynamics (referring to claims on income by workers and firms) occupies a prominent role. It is brought out, explicitly, how this rather typical error...

  9. TimesVector: a vectorized clustering approach to the analysis of time series transcriptome data from multiple phenotypes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jung, Inuk; Jo, Kyuri; Kang, Hyejin; Ahn, Hongryul; Yu, Youngjae; Kim, Sun

    2017-12-01

    Identifying biologically meaningful gene expression patterns from time series gene expression data is important to understand the underlying biological mechanisms. To identify significantly perturbed gene sets between different phenotypes, analysis of time series transcriptome data requires consideration of time and sample dimensions. Thus, the analysis of such time series data seeks to search gene sets that exhibit similar or different expression patterns between two or more sample conditions, constituting the three-dimensional data, i.e. gene-time-condition. Computational complexity for analyzing such data is very high, compared to the already difficult NP-hard two dimensional biclustering algorithms. Because of this challenge, traditional time series clustering algorithms are designed to capture co-expressed genes with similar expression pattern in two sample conditions. We present a triclustering algorithm, TimesVector, specifically designed for clustering three-dimensional time series data to capture distinctively similar or different gene expression patterns between two or more sample conditions. TimesVector identifies clusters with distinctive expression patterns in three steps: (i) dimension reduction and clustering of time-condition concatenated vectors, (ii) post-processing clusters for detecting similar and distinct expression patterns and (iii) rescuing genes from unclassified clusters. Using four sets of time series gene expression data, generated by both microarray and high throughput sequencing platforms, we demonstrated that TimesVector successfully detected biologically meaningful clusters of high quality. TimesVector improved the clustering quality compared to existing triclustering tools and only TimesVector detected clusters with differential expression patterns across conditions successfully. The TimesVector software is available at http://biohealth.snu.ac.kr/software/TimesVector/. sunkim.bioinfo@snu.ac.kr. Supplementary data are available at

  10. DEMAND FOR TURKEY MEAT: PRICE EFFECT OR SPENDING EFFECT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miguel Angel Martinez Damian

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Turkey meat is a white meat demand in Mexico, however, its consumption is still low. In order to explore the convenience of expanding the market and foresee if the industry should compete in price or expenditure, the aim of this work is to study the demand for turkey meat as part of a protein basket; that consists of beef, chicken, pork and egg. Methodologically an almost ideal demand model was used, in an economic sense, this model allows an optimal assignment representation through budget share equations as a function of prices and real expenditure within the bundle. With statistical information from secondary sources, the results showed that the demand for turkey meat responds inelastically to price, and that the response on spending is almost one. With the estimates of price and expenditure growth rates, in terms of an expansion policy in the turkey market, results conclude that spending is the most relevant factor in demand, followed to a lesser extent by price.

  11. Time series ARIMA models for daily price of palm oil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ariff, Noratiqah Mohd; Zamhawari, Nor Hashimah; Bakar, Mohd Aftar Abu

    2015-02-01

    Palm oil is deemed as one of the most important commodity that forms the economic backbone of Malaysia. Modeling and forecasting the daily price of palm oil is of great interest for Malaysia's economic growth. In this study, time series ARIMA models are used to fit the daily price of palm oil. The Akaike Infromation Criterion (AIC), Akaike Infromation Criterion with a correction for finite sample sizes (AICc) and Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) are used to compare between different ARIMA models being considered. It is found that ARIMA(1,2,1) model is suitable for daily price of crude palm oil in Malaysia for the year 2010 to 2012.

  12. THE CORN-EGG PRICE TRANSMISSION MECHANISM

    OpenAIRE

    Babula, Ronald A.; Bessler, David A.

    1990-01-01

    A vector autoregression (VAR) model of corn, farm egg, and retail egg prices is estimated and shocked with a corn price increase. Impulse responses in egg prices, t-statistics for the impulse responses, and decompositions of forecast error variance are presented. Analyses of results provide insights on the corn/egg price transmission mechanism and on how corn price shocks pulsate through the egg-related economy.

  13. Assessment of cassava supply response in Nigeria using vector error correction model (VECM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Obayelu Oluwakemi Adeola

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The response of agricultural commodities to changes in price is an important factor in the success of any reform programme in agricultural sector of Nigeria. The producers of traditional agricultural commodities, such as cassava, face the world market directly. Consequently, the producer price of cassava has become unstable, which is a disincentive for both its production and trade. This study investigated cassava supply response to changes in price. Data collected from FAOSTAT from 1966 to 2010 were analysed using Vector Error Correction Model (VECM approach. The results of the VECM for the estimation of short run adjustment of the variables toward their long run relationship showed a linear deterministic trend in the data and that Area cultivated and own prices jointly explained 74% and 63% of the variation in the Nigeria cassava output in the short run and long-run respectively. Cassava prices (P<0.001 and land cultivated (P<0.1 had positive influence on cassava supply in the short-run. The short-run price elasticity was 0.38 indicating that price policies were effective in the short-run promotion of cassava production in Nigeria. However, in the long-run elasticity cassava was not responsive to price incentives significantly. This suggests that price policies are not effective in the long-run promotion of cassava production in the country owing to instability in governance and government policies.

  14. On the relationship between health, education and economic growth: Time series evidence from Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khan, Habib Nawaz; Razali, Radzuan B.; Shafei, Afza Bt.

    2016-11-01

    The objectives of this paper is two-fold: First, to empirically investigate the effects of an enlarged number of healthy and well-educated people on economic growth in Malaysia within the Endogeneous Growth Model framework. Second, to examine the causal links between education, health and economic growth using annual time series data from 1981 to 2014 for Malaysia. Data series were checked for the time series properties by using ADF and KPSS tests. Long run co-integration relationship was investigated with the help of vector autoregressive (VAR) method. For short and long run dynamic relationship investigation vector error correction model (VECM) was applied. Causality analysis was performed through Engle-Granger technique. The study results showed long run co-integration relation and positively significant effects of education and health on economic growth in Malaysia. The reported results also confirmed a feedback hypothesis between the variables in the case of Malaysia. The study results have policy relevance of the importance of human capital (health and education) to the growth process of the Malaysia. Thus, it is suggested that policy makers focus on education and health sectors for sustainable economic growth in Malaysia.

  15. Artificial neural network model of pork meat cubes osmotic dehydratation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pezo Lato L.

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Mass transfer of pork meat cubes (M. triceps brachii, shaped as 1x1x1 cm, during osmotic dehydration (OD and under atmospheric pressure was investigated in this paper. The effects of different parameters, such as concentration of sugar beet molasses (60-80%, w/w, temperature (20-50ºC, and immersion time (1-5 h in terms of water loss (WL, solid gain (SG, final dry matter content (DM, and water activity (aw, were investigated using experimental results. Five artificial neural network (ANN models were developed for the prediction of WL, SG, DM, and aw in OD of pork meat cubes. These models were able to predict process outputs with coefficient of determination, r2, of 0.990 for SG, 0.985 for WL, 0.986 for aw, and 0.992 for DM compared to experimental measurements. The wide range of processing variables considered for the formulation of these models, and their easy implementation in a spreadsheet calculus make it very useful and practical for process design and control.

  16. Dynamics of Price-Cost Margins in the U.S. Meat Industry

    OpenAIRE

    Chidmi, Benaissa; Fadiga, Mohamadou L.

    2007-01-01

    This study analyses the stochastic behavior of price-cost margins (PCMs) in the U.S. meat industry. It, first, develops and estimates a vertical relationship economic model to derive PCMs in the U.S. meat industry (Beef, Pork, and Poultry). Second it analyzes the behavior of PCMs by decomposing them into their seasonal, cyclical, and trend components using the state-space and the Kalman filtering methods. Price-cost margins in the U.S. meat industry are governed by two common trends and two c...

  17. Evaluation of dynamic pass-through of carbon prices into electricity prices – a cointegrated VECM analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Freitas, Carlos J. Pereira; Silva, Patrícia Pereira da

    2013-01-01

    This paper addresses the impact of the CO2 opportunity cost on the wholesale electricity price in the context of the Iberian electricity market (MIBEL), namely on the Portuguese system, for the period corresponding to the Phase II of the European Union Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS). In the econometric analysis a vector error correction model (VECM) is specified to estimate both long–run equilibrium relations and short–run interactions between the electricity price and the fuel (natural gas...

  18. ASYMMETRIC PRICE TRANSMISSION MODELING: THE IMPORTANCE OF MODEL COMPLEXITY AND THE PERFORMANCE OF THE SELECTION CRITERIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Henry de-Graft Acquah

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Information Criteria provides an attractive basis for selecting the best model from a set of competing asymmetric price transmission models or theories. However, little is understood about the sensitivity of the model selection methods to model complexity. This study therefore fits competing asymmetric price transmission models that differ in complexity to simulated data and evaluates the ability of the model selection methods to recover the true model. The results of Monte Carlo experimentation suggest that in general BIC, CAIC and DIC were superior to AIC when the true data generating process was the standard error correction model, whereas AIC was more successful when the true model was the complex error correction model. It is also shown that the model selection methods performed better in large samples for a complex asymmetric data generating process than with a standard asymmetric data generating process. Except for complex models, AIC's performance did not make substantial gains in recovery rates as sample size increased. The research findings demonstrate the influence of model complexity in asymmetric price transmission model comparison and selection.

  19. Modeling vector nonlinear time series using POLYMARS

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Gooijer, J.G.; Ray, B.K.

    2003-01-01

    A modified multivariate adaptive regression splines method for modeling vector nonlinear time series is investigated. The method results in models that can capture certain types of vector self-exciting threshold autoregressive behavior, as well as provide good predictions for more general vector

  20. Meat mixture detection in Iberian pork sausages.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ortiz-Somovilla, V; España-España, F; De Pedro-Sanz, E J; Gaitán-Jurado, A J

    2005-11-01

    Five homogenized meat mixture treatments of Iberian (I) and/or Standard (S) pork were set up. Each treatment was analyzed by NIRS as a fresh product (N=75) and as dry-cured sausage (N=75). Spectra acquisition was carried out using DA 7000 equipment (Perten Instruments), obtaining a total of 750 spectra. Several absorption peaks and bands were selected as the most representative for homogenized dry-cured and fresh sausages. Discriminant analysis and mixture prediction equations were carried out based on the spectral data gathered. The best results using discriminant models were for fresh products, with 98.3% (calibration) and 60% (validation) correct classification. For dry-cured sausages 91.7% (calibration) and 80% (validation) of the samples were correctly classified. Models developed using mixture prediction equations showed SECV=4.7, r(2)=0.98 (calibration) and 73.3% of validation set were correctly classified for the fresh product. These values for dry-cured sausages were SECV=5.9, r(2)=0.99 (calibration) and 93.3% correctly classified for validation.

  1. Vertical price transmission in the Danish food chain

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Jørgen Dejgård; Møller, Anja Skadkær

    2005-01-01

    This purpose of this paper is to investigate price transmission patterns through selected Danish food chains – from primary production to processing, from processing to wholesale and from wholesale to retail prices. Specifically, the study addresses the following research questions: To what extent...... are commodity prices transmitted from one stage to another in the food chain? What is the time horizon in the price transmission? Is price transmission symmetric – in the short run and in the long run? Is the degree of price transmission affected by the degree of concentration in the supply and demand stage...... considered? These questions are analysed theoretically and empirically using econometric analysis. 6 food chains are investigated: pork, chicken, eggs, milk, sugar and apples. Preliminary empirical results suggest that for most commodities, price transmission tends to be upward asymmetric, i.e. stronger...

  2. Optimization of a Real Time PCR based method for the detection of Listeria monocytogenes in pork meat.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gattuso, Antonietta; Gianfranceschi, Monica Virginia; Sonnessa, Michele; Delibato, Elisabetta; Marchesan, Massimo; Hernandez, Marta; De Medici, Dario; Rodriguez-Lazaro, David

    2014-08-01

    The aim of this study was to optimize a Real-Time PCR protocol for a rapid detection of Listeria monocytogenes in pork meat, using reduced volumes of primary selective enrichment broth and times of incubation to decrease the cost and time for analysis. Forty-five samples of pork meat were artificially contaminated with two different levels of L. monocytogenes (1-10 CFU per sample and 10-100 CFU per sample), homogenized in three different volumes of Half Fraser Broth (1:3; 1:5 and 1:10) and incubated at 30°C ± 1°C for 5h, 8h and 24h. The detection was conducted in parallel by Real-Time PCR and the ISO standard 11290-1 methods. L. monocytogenes was detected in all the samples after 24h by Real-Time PCR method, also using reduced volumes of Half Fraser Broth. This represents a clear advantage as the time to final detection and the inherent costs were significantly reduced compared to the ISO reference method. All samples artificially contaminated were correctly detected also after 8 of incubation at 30°C ± 1°C in Half Fraser Broth and 24h in Fraser Broth at 37°C ± 1°C using cultural method. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  3. Carbon financial markets: A time-frequency analysis of CO2 prices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sousa, Rita; Aguiar-Conraria, Luís; Soares, Maria Joana

    2014-11-01

    We characterize the interrelation of CO2 prices with energy prices (electricity, gas and coal), and with economic activity. Previous studies have relied on time-domain techniques, such as Vector Auto-Regressions. In this study, we use multivariate wavelet analysis, which operates in the time-frequency domain. Wavelet analysis provides convenient tools to distinguish relations at particular frequencies and at particular time horizons. Our empirical approach has the potential to identify relations getting stronger and then disappearing over specific time intervals and frequencies. We are able to examine the coherency of these variables and lead-lag relations at different frequencies for the time periods in focus.

  4. Video Error Correction Using Steganography

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robie, David L.; Mersereau, Russell M.

    2002-12-01

    The transmission of any data is always subject to corruption due to errors, but video transmission, because of its real time nature must deal with these errors without retransmission of the corrupted data. The error can be handled using forward error correction in the encoder or error concealment techniques in the decoder. This MPEG-2 compliant codec uses data hiding to transmit error correction information and several error concealment techniques in the decoder. The decoder resynchronizes more quickly with fewer errors than traditional resynchronization techniques. It also allows for perfect recovery of differentially encoded DCT-DC components and motion vectors. This provides for a much higher quality picture in an error-prone environment while creating an almost imperceptible degradation of the picture in an error-free environment.

  5. Video Error Correction Using Steganography

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robie David L

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available The transmission of any data is always subject to corruption due to errors, but video transmission, because of its real time nature must deal with these errors without retransmission of the corrupted data. The error can be handled using forward error correction in the encoder or error concealment techniques in the decoder. This MPEG-2 compliant codec uses data hiding to transmit error correction information and several error concealment techniques in the decoder. The decoder resynchronizes more quickly with fewer errors than traditional resynchronization techniques. It also allows for perfect recovery of differentially encoded DCT-DC components and motion vectors. This provides for a much higher quality picture in an error-prone environment while creating an almost imperceptible degradation of the picture in an error-free environment.

  6. Designing a time-effective TaqMan probe-based real-time polymerase chain reaction protocol for the identification of Yersinia enterocolitica in raw pork meat

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Milena Alicja Stachelska

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study was to design a time-effective method comprising a short pre-enrichment step in a non-selective broth in combination with the TaqMan probe applied in the real-time polymerase chain reaction to detect Yersinia enterocolitica strains in raw pork meat. The method enabled to detect 1 colony forming unit per 25 mg of Yersinia enterocolitica in pork meat. The specificity and reliability of the method was not diminished by the company of microflora naturally present in meat. The method was found successful to detect pathogenic Yersinia enterocolitica strains in pork meat. It is advised to be used for assessing the microbial risk and for controlling the microbial quality of meat and meat products.

  7. Vector bilinear autoregressive time series model and its superiority ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In this research, a vector bilinear autoregressive time series model was proposed and used to model three revenue series (X1, X2, X3) . The “orders” of the three series were identified on the basis of the distribution of autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation functions and were used to construct the vector bilinear models.

  8. Consumers' expected quality and intention to purchase high quality pork meat.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Papanagiotou, P; Tzimitra-Kalogianni, I; Melfou, K

    2013-03-01

    Expected quality is believed to be one of the most important factors that influence consumers' intention to purchase food. The present study seeks to explore the concept of pork meat expected quality and compare it with self-stated consumer intention to purchase pork meat. The aim is attempted by means of a field research conducted in Greece, following a conjoint analytic procedure. Results show that quality expectations comply with intention to buy pork, in many aspects. However, several differences have been identified. More specifically, country of origin and marbling appear to be more important for respondents' purchase decisions than they are for their quality evaluations, while the opposite appears to be true for price. Finally, socio-demographic factors such as gender, level of education, place of purchase and consumption habits seem to influence perceptions. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. A co-integration analysis of the price and income elasticities of energy demand in Turkish agriculture

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tuerkekul, Berna; Unakitan, Goekhan

    2011-01-01

    Agriculture has an important role in every country's development. Particularly, the contribution of agriculture to development and competitiveness is increasing with agricultural productivity growth. Productivity, in turn, is closely associated with direct and indirect use of energy as an input. Therefore, the importance of energy in agriculture cannot be denied as one of the basic inputs to the economic growth process. Following the importance of energy in Turkish agriculture, this study aims to estimate the long- and short-run relationship of energy consumption, agricultural GDP, and energy prices via co-integration and error correction (ECM) analysis. Annual data from 1970 to 2008 for diesel and electricity consumptions are utilized to estimate long-run and short-run elasticities. According to ECM analysis, for the diesel demand model, the long-run income and price elasticities were calculated as 1.47 and -0.38, respectively. For the electricity demand model, income and price elasticities were calculated at 0.19 and -0.72, respectively, in the long run. Briefly, in Turkey, support for energy use in agriculture should be continued in order to ensure sustainability in agriculture, increase competitiveness in international markets, and balance farmers' income. - Research highlights: → We estimate the long and short run elasticities for diesel and electricity demands in agriculture. → The long-run income and price elasticities calculated as 1.47 and 0.38, respectively for diesel. → The long run Income and price elasticities calculated as 0.19 and 0.72 for electricity.

  10. Asymmetric Price Transmission in Indonesia's Wheat Flour Market

    OpenAIRE

    Varela, Gonzalo J.; Taniguchi, Kiyoshi

    2014-01-01

    Data indicate that its domestic price in Indonesia has been increasing regardless of movements in the international price of wheat. A test for asymmetric price transmission from international wheat to domestic wheat flour markets is conducted using an error correction model and find the presence of asymmetric price transmission. The upward adjustment in the domestic price of wheat flour is much faster than its adjustment downward when it deviates from long-run equilibrium. Our results are rob...

  11. Electricity Price Forecast Using Combined Models with Adaptive Weights Selected and Errors Calibrated by Hidden Markov Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Da Liu

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available A combined forecast with weights adaptively selected and errors calibrated by Hidden Markov model (HMM is proposed to model the day-ahead electricity price. Firstly several single models were built to forecast the electricity price separately. Then the validation errors from every individual model were transformed into two discrete sequences: an emission sequence and a state sequence to build the HMM, obtaining a transmission matrix and an emission matrix, representing the forecasting ability state of the individual models. The combining weights of the individual models were decided by the state transmission matrixes in HMM and the best predict sample ratio of each individual among all the models in the validation set. The individual forecasts were averaged to get the combining forecast with the weights obtained above. The residuals of combining forecast were calibrated by the possible error calculated by the emission matrix of HMM. A case study of day-ahead electricity market of Pennsylvania-New Jersey-Maryland (PJM, USA, suggests that the proposed method outperforms individual techniques of price forecasting, such as support vector machine (SVM, generalized regression neural networks (GRNN, day-ahead modeling, and self-organized map (SOM similar days modeling.

  12. Disaggregated energy consumption and GDP in Taiwan: A threshold co-integration analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hu, J.-L.; Lin, C.-H.

    2008-01-01

    Energy consumption growth is much higher than economic growth for Taiwan in recent years, worsening its energy efficiency. This paper provides a solid explanation by examining the equilibrium relationship between GDP and disaggregated energy consumption under a non-linear framework. The threshold co-integration test developed with asymmetric dynamic adjusting processes proposed by Hansen and Seo [Hansen, B.E., Seo, B., 2002. Testing for two-regime threshold cointegration in vector error-correction models. Journal of Econometrics 110, 293-318.] is applied. Non-linear co-integrations between GDP and disaggregated energy consumptions are confirmed except for oil consumption. The two-regime vector error-correction models (VECM) show that the adjustment process of energy consumption toward equilibrium is highly persistent when an appropriately threshold is reached. There is mean-reverting behavior when the threshold is reached, making aggregate and disaggregated energy consumptions grow faster than GDP in Taiwan

  13. Co-Movement of Major Commodity Price Returns : Time-Series Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    de Nicola, Francesca; De Pace, Pierangelo; Hernandez, Manuel A.

    2014-01-01

    This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of the degree of co-movement among the nominal price returns of 11 major energy, agricultural and food commodities based on monthly data between 1970 and 2013. A uniform-spacings testing approach, a multivariate dynamic conditional correlation model and a rolling regression procedure are used to study the extent and the time-evolution of uncondi...

  14. International trade in meat: the tip of the pork chop.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galloway, James N; Burke, Marshall; Bradford, G Eric; Naylor, Rosamond; Falcon, Walter; Chapagain, Ashok K; Gaskell, Joanne C; McCullough, Ellen; Mooney, Harold A; Oleson, Kirsten L L; Steinfeld, Henning; Wassenaar, Tom; Smil, Vaclav

    2007-12-01

    This paper provides an original account of global land, water, and nitrogen use in support of industrialized livestock production and trade, with emphasis on two of the fastest-growing sectors, pork and poultry. Our analysis focuses on trade in feed and animal products, using a new model that calculates the amount of "virtual" nitrogen, water, and land used in production but not embedded in the product. We show how key meat-importing countries, such as Japan, benefit from "virtual" trade in land, water, and nitrogen, and how key meat-exporting countries, such as Brazil, provide these resources without accounting for their true environmental cost. Results show that Japan's pig and chicken meat imports embody the virtual equivalent of 50% of Japan's total arable land, and half of Japan's virtual nitrogen total is lost in the US. Trade links with China are responsible for 15% of the virtual nitrogen left behind in Brazil due to feed and meat exports, and 20% of Brazil's area is used to grow soybean exports. The complexity of trade in meat, feed, water, and nitrogen is illustrated by the dual roles of the US and The Netherlands as both importers and exporters of meat. Mitigation of environmental damage from industrialized livestock production and trade depends on a combination of direct-pricing strategies, regulatory approaches, and use of best management practices. Our analysis indicates that increased water- and nitrogen-use efficiency and land conservation resulting from these measures could significantly reduce resource costs.

  15. The past, present, and future of the U.S. electric power sector: Examining regulatory changes using multivariate time series approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Binder, Kyle Edwin

    The U.S. energy sector has undergone continuous change in the regulatory, technological, and market environments. These developments show no signs of slowing. Accordingly, it is imperative that energy market regulators and participants develop a strong comprehension of market dynamics and the potential implications of their actions. This dissertation contributes to a better understanding of the past, present, and future of U.S. energy market dynamics and interactions with policy. Advancements in multivariate time series analysis are employed in three related studies of the electric power sector. Overall, results suggest that regulatory changes have had and will continue to have important implications for the electric power sector. The sector, however, has exhibited adaptability to past regulatory changes and is projected to remain resilient in the future. Tests for constancy of the long run parameters in a vector error correction model are applied to determine whether relationships among coal inventories in the electric power sector, input prices, output prices, and opportunity costs have remained constant over the past 38 years. Two periods of instability are found, the first following railroad deregulation in the U.S. and the second corresponding to a number of major regulatory changes in the electric power and natural gas sectors. Relationships among Renewable Energy Credit prices, electricity prices, and natural gas prices are estimated using a vector error correction model. Results suggest that Renewable Energy Credit prices do not completely behave as previously theorized in the literature. Potential reasons for the divergence between theory and empirical evidence are the relative immaturity of current markets and continuous institutional intervention. Potential impacts of future CO2 emissions reductions under the Clean Power Plan on economic and energy sector activity are estimated. Conditional forecasts based on an outlined path for CO2 emissions are

  16. Detecting method for crude oil price fluctuation mechanism under different periodic time series

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gao, Xiangyun; Fang, Wei; An, Feng; Wang, Yue

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: • We proposed the concept of autoregressive modes to indicate the fluctuation patterns. • We constructed transmission networks for studying the fluctuation mechanism. • There are different fluctuation mechanism under different periodic time series. • Only a few types of autoregressive modes control the fluctuations in crude oil price. • There are cluster effects during the fluctuation mechanism of autoregressive modes. - Abstract: Current existing literatures can characterize the long-term fluctuation of crude oil price time series, however, it is difficult to detect the fluctuation mechanism specifically under short term. Because each fluctuation pattern for one short period contained in a long-term crude oil price time series have dynamic characteristics of diversity; in other words, there exhibit various fluctuation patterns in different short periods and transmit to each other, which reflects the reputedly complicate and chaotic oil market. Thus, we proposed an incorporated method to detect the fluctuation mechanism, which is the evolution of the different fluctuation patterns over time from the complex network perspective. We divided crude oil price time series into segments using sliding time windows, and defined autoregressive modes based on regression models to indicate the fluctuation patterns of each segment. Hence, the transmissions between different types of autoregressive modes over time form a transmission network that contains rich dynamic information. We then capture transmission characteristics of autoregressive modes under different periodic time series through the structure features of the transmission networks. The results indicate that there are various autoregressive modes with significantly different statistical characteristics under different periodic time series. However, only a few types of autoregressive modes and transmission patterns play a major role in the fluctuation mechanism of the crude oil price, and these

  17. A co-integration analysis of the price and income elasticities of energy demand in Turkish agriculture

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tuerkekul, Berna, E-mail: berna.turkekul@ege.edu.t [Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, Ege University, 35100 Izmir (Turkey); Unakitan, Goekhan, E-mail: unakitan@nku.edu.t [Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, Namik Kemal University, Tekirdag (Turkey)

    2011-05-15

    Agriculture has an important role in every country's development. Particularly, the contribution of agriculture to development and competitiveness is increasing with agricultural productivity growth. Productivity, in turn, is closely associated with direct and indirect use of energy as an input. Therefore, the importance of energy in agriculture cannot be denied as one of the basic inputs to the economic growth process. Following the importance of energy in Turkish agriculture, this study aims to estimate the long- and short-run relationship of energy consumption, agricultural GDP, and energy prices via co-integration and error correction (ECM) analysis. Annual data from 1970 to 2008 for diesel and electricity consumptions are utilized to estimate long-run and short-run elasticities. According to ECM analysis, for the diesel demand model, the long-run income and price elasticities were calculated as 1.47 and -0.38, respectively. For the electricity demand model, income and price elasticities were calculated at 0.19 and -0.72, respectively, in the long run. Briefly, in Turkey, support for energy use in agriculture should be continued in order to ensure sustainability in agriculture, increase competitiveness in international markets, and balance farmers' income. - Research highlights: {yields} We estimate the long and short run elasticities for diesel and electricity demands in agriculture. {yields} The long-run income and price elasticities calculated as 1.47 and 0.38, respectively for diesel. {yields} The long run Income and price elasticities calculated as 0.19 and 0.72 for electricity.

  18. Tax revenue and inflation rate predictions in Banda Aceh using Vector Error Correction Model (VECM)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maulia, Eva; Miftahuddin; Sofyan, Hizir

    2018-05-01

    A country has some important parameters to achieve the welfare of the economy, such as tax revenues and inflation. One of the largest revenues of the state budget in Indonesia comes from the tax sector. Besides, the rate of inflation occurring in a country can be used as one measure, to measure economic problems that the country facing. Given the importance of tax revenue and inflation rate control in achieving economic prosperity, it is necessary to analyze the relationship and forecasting tax revenue and inflation rate. VECM (Vector Error Correction Model) was chosen as the method used in this research, because of the data used in the form of multivariate time series data. This study aims to produce a VECM model with optimal lag and to predict the tax revenue and inflation rate of the VECM model. The results show that the best model for data of tax revenue and the inflation rate in Banda Aceh City is VECM with 3rd optimal lag or VECM (3). Of the seven models formed, there is a significant model that is the acceptance model of income tax. The predicted results of tax revenue and the inflation rate in Kota Banda Aceh for the next 6, 12 and 24 periods (months) obtained using VECM (3) are considered valid, since they have a minimum error value compared to other models.

  19. Analysis of the impact of crude oil price fluctuations on China's stock market in different periods-Based on time series network model

    Science.gov (United States)

    An, Yang; Sun, Mei; Gao, Cuixia; Han, Dun; Li, Xiuming

    2018-02-01

    This paper studies the influence of Brent oil price fluctuations on the stock prices of China's two distinct blocks, namely, the petrochemical block and the electric equipment and new energy block, applying the Shannon entropy of information theory. The co-movement trend of crude oil price and stock prices is divided into different fluctuation patterns with the coarse-graining method. Then, the bivariate time series network model is established for the two blocks stock in five different periods. By joint analysis of the network-oriented metrics, the key modes and underlying evolutionary mechanisms were identified. The results show that the both networks have different fluctuation characteristics in different periods. Their co-movement patterns are clustered in some key modes and conversion intermediaries. The study not only reveals the lag effect of crude oil price fluctuations on the stock in Chinese industry blocks but also verifies the necessity of research on special periods, and suggests that the government should use different energy policies to stabilize market volatility in different periods. A new way is provided to study the unidirectional influence between multiple variables or complex time series.

  20. The Economic Impact of Government Policy on Market Prices of Low-Fat Pork in South Korea: A Quasi-Experimental Hedonic Price Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hyun No Kim

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available The implementation of government policy can have an influence on market environment and market prices of pork in consequence. In South Korea, consumers prefer high-fat pork cuts due to the prevalence of roosting pork over a hot grill. This paper examines the impact of the government policy which aims to increase the consumption of low-fat pork cuts because of the concerns regarding asymmetric consumption between high-fat and low-fat pork cuts. Using hedonic price methods combined with quasi-experimental approaches we estimate the subsequent impact of food policy on the price of low-fat pork cuts using a time series of sales data. This study utilized an effective approach which has been widely employed for policy evaluation to produce plausible estimates of the economic values generated by the government policy. We find the existence of market segmentation and different impacts of the policy between markets. While the market price for high-fat pork cuts has remained stable, the price for low-fat pork cuts has slightly increased since the policy has been implemented. This paper illustrates that government’s policy can be a good strategy to maintain sustainability of the food industry by improving the balance in pork consumption and the management of stocks.

  1. Single-Index Additive Vector Autoregressive Time Series Models

    KAUST Repository

    LI, YEHUA; GENTON, MARC G.

    2009-01-01

    We study a new class of nonlinear autoregressive models for vector time series, where the current vector depends on single-indexes defined on the past lags and the effects of different lags have an additive form. A sufficient condition is provided

  2. International Synchronisation of the Pork Cycle

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    HOLST

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available The development of pork prices has been analysed since the 1920s. Well known economic concepts such as Hanaus pork cycle or Ezekiels cobweb theorem are based on the empirical analysis of pork markets. We analyze whether pork price developments in different countries have become more synchronised over time. In a first stage of our analysis, annual pork price data collected by the FAO reveals much heterogeneity of pork price developments across countries. However, for some groups of countries the observed price patterns are very similar or even identical. This is especially the case for neighbouring countries with integrated pork markets, such as the members of the European Union (EU. We then compare pork price developments in Germany and the USA based on 36 years of monthly producer prices for slaughter pigs. Since the middle of the 1990s cyclical pork price movements in the USA and Germany have become increasingly synchronous. We attribute this to two developments: the fact that the USA has become a large net exporter of pork over this period, and policy reform in the EU that has strengthened the link between international and EU feed prices.

  3. Eating quality of UK-style sausages varying in price, meat content, fat level and salt content.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheard, P R; Hope, E; Hughes, S I; Baker, A; Nute, G R

    2010-05-01

    Thirty-six brands of pork sausage were purchased from a total of 10 retailers over a 4 months period and assessed for eating quality. The brands included 5 of the 10 most popular sausages in the UK, 4 basic, 14 standard, 10 premium and 8 healthy eating brands. The average price, meat content, fat content and salt content was 3.31 pounds/kg, 62%, 17% and 1.6%, respectively, but there were wide differences in price (1.08 pound/kg-5.23 pounds/kg), meat content (32-97%), fat content (2.1-29.1%) and salt content (0.5-2.5%). Sausages were assessed by a trained sensory panel using 100mm unstructured line scales and 14 descriptors (skin toughness, firmness, juiciness, pork flavour, fattiness, meatiness, particle size, cohesiveness, saltiness, sweet, acidic, bitter and metallic) including overall liking. The declared meat content was positively correlated with price, skin toughness, firmness, pork flavour, meatiness, particle size and perceived saltiness (r=0.5 or better). The declared fat content was positively correlated with fattiness and sweetness (r=0.42 or better) but not juiciness. There was no significant correlation between declared salt content and perceived saltiness. A principal component analysis showed that the first two principal components accounted for 51% of the variability in the data. Products could be separated into four quadrants according to their price, meat content, fat content and their associated eating quality attributes. Copyright (c) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. ARE THE FIVE ASEAN STOCK PRICE INDICES DYNAMICALLY INTERACTED?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adwin Surja Atmadja

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available This study seeks to examine the dynamic interactions of stock price indices in five ASEAN countries, Indonesia; Malaysia; the Philippines; Singapore; and Thailand with particular attention to the 1997 Asian financial crisis and period onwards. Using monthly time series data of the stock price indices countries, a vector error correction model (VECM is employed to empirically examine the interaction among the variables. The finding is that the five ASEAN stock market prices were found to be integrated with two cointegrating vectors during the sample period, and that accounting innovation analyses show the short run dynamic interactions among those stock markets. The important implication might be drawn from the finding is that portfolio diversification across the five ASEAN stock markets is unlikely to reduce investment risk due to high degree of financial integration of these markets. Abstract in Bahasa Indonesia : Studi ini bertujuan meneliti interaksi dinamis antara indeks harga saham yang terdapat di lima negara ASEAN, yaitu Indonesia, Malaysia, Filipina, Singapura, dan Thailan yang terjadi selama masa krisis finansial Asia tahun 1997 dan periode sesudahnya. Dengan menggunakan data time series bulanan indeks harga saham dari kelima negara tersebut selama periode penelitian, suatu vector error correction model (VECM diaplikasikan untuk meneliti secara empiris interaksi dinamis yang terjadi diantara berbagai variabel yang dipergunakan dalam penelitian ini. Dari hasil penelitian ditemukan dua vektor kointegrasi (cointegration vector selama masa penelitian, dan analisa inovasi akuntansi (accounting innovation analyses menunjukan adanya interaksi dinamis jangka pendek diantara pasar saham tersebut. Implikasi penting yang mungkin perlu diperhatikan dari penemuan ini adalah bahwa diversifikasi portofolio saham pada lima pasar saham tersebut agaknya tidak akan secara signifikan mengurangi tingkat resiko investasi. Hal ini dikarenakan oleh tingginya

  5. Effect of Price Determinants on World Cocoa Prices for Over the Last Three Decades: Error Correction Model (ECM Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lya Aklimawati

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available High  volatility  cocoa  price  movement  is  consequenced  by  imbalancing between power demand and power supply in commodity market. World economy expectation and market  liberalization would lead to instability on cocoa prices in  the  international  commerce.  Dynamic  prices  moving  erratically  influence the benefit  of market players, particularly  producers. The aim of this research is  (1  to  estimate  the  empirical  cocoa  prices  model  for  responding  market dynamics and (2 analyze short-term and long-term effect of price determinants variables  on cocoa prices.  This research  was  carried out by  analyzing  annualdata from 1980 to 2011, based on secondary data. Error correction mechanism (ECM  approach was  used  to  estimate the  econometric  model  of  cocoa  price.The  estimation  results  indicated  that  cocoa  price  was  significantly  affected  by exchange rate IDR-USD, world gross domestic product,  world inflation, worldcocoa production, world cocoa consumption, world cocoa stock and Robusta prices at varied significance level from 1 - 10%. All of these variables have a long run equilibrium relationship. In long run effect, world gross domestic product, world  cocoa  consumption  and  world  cocoa  stock  were  elastic  (E  >1,  while other  variables  were  inelastic  (E  <1.  Variables  that  affecting  cocoa  pricesin  short  run  equilibrium  were  exchange  rate  IDR-USD,  world  gross  domestic product,  world  inflation,  world  cocoa  consumption  and  world  cocoa  stock. The  analysis  results  showed  that  world  gross  domestic  product,  world  cocoa consumption  and  world  cocoa  stock  were  elastic  (E  >1  to  cocoa  prices  in short-term.  Whereas,  the  response  of  cocoa  prices  was  inelastic  to  change  of exchange rate IDR-USD and world inflation.Key words: Price

  6. Cointegration and Error Correction Modelling in Time-Series Analysis: A Brief Introduction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Helmut Thome

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Criminological research is often based on time-series data showing some type of trend movement. Trending time-series may correlate strongly even in cases where no causal relationship exists (spurious causality. To avoid this problem researchers often apply some technique of detrending their data, such as by differencing the series. This approach, however, may bring up another problem: that of spurious non-causality. Both problems can, in principle, be avoided if the series under investigation are “difference-stationary” (if the trend movements are stochastic and “cointegrated” (if the stochastically changing trendmovements in different variables correspond to each other. The article gives a brief introduction to key instruments and interpretative tools applied in cointegration modelling.

  7. Neural network versus classical time series forecasting models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nor, Maria Elena; Safuan, Hamizah Mohd; Shab, Noorzehan Fazahiyah Md; Asrul, Mohd; Abdullah, Affendi; Mohamad, Nurul Asmaa Izzati; Lee, Muhammad Hisyam

    2017-05-01

    Artificial neural network (ANN) has advantage in time series forecasting as it has potential to solve complex forecasting problems. This is because ANN is data driven approach which able to be trained to map past values of a time series. In this study the forecast performance between neural network and classical time series forecasting method namely seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average models was being compared by utilizing gold price data. Moreover, the effect of different data preprocessing on the forecast performance of neural network being examined. The forecast accuracy was evaluated using mean absolute deviation, root mean square error and mean absolute percentage error. It was found that ANN produced the most accurate forecast when Box-Cox transformation was used as data preprocessing.

  8. Concentration of Umami Compounds in Pork Meat and Cooking Juice with Different Cooking Times and Temperatures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rotola-Pukkila, Minna K; Pihlajaviita, Seija T; Kaimainen, Mika T; Hopia, Anu I

    2015-12-01

    This study examined the concentrations of umami compounds in pork loins cooked at 3 different temperatures and 3 different lengths of cooking times. The pork loins were cooked with the sous vide technique. The free amino acids (FAAs), glutamic acid and aspartic acid; the 5'-nucleotides, inosine-5'-monophosphate (IMP) and adenosine-5'-monophosphate (AMP); and corresponding nucleoside inosine of the cooked meat and its released juice were determined by high-performance liquid chromatography. Under the experimental conditions used, the cooking temperature played a more important role than the cooking time in the concentration of the analyzed compounds. The amino acid concentrations in the meat did not remain constant under these experimental conditions. The most notable effect observed was that of the cooking temperature and the higher amino acid concentrations in the released juice of meat cooked at 80 °C compared with 60 and 70 °C. This is most likely due to the heat induced hydrolysis of proteins and peptides releasing water soluble FAAs from the meat into the cooking juice. In this experiment, the cooking time and temperature had no influence on the IMP concentrations observed. However, the AMP concentrations increased with the increasing temperature and time. This suggests that the choice of time and temperature in sous vide cooking affects the nucleotide concentration of pork meat. The Sous vide technique proved to be a good technique to preserve the cooking juice and the results presented here show that cooking juice is rich in umami compounds, which can be used to provide a savory or brothy taste. © 2015 Institute of Food Technologists®

  9. How policies affect international biofuel price linkages

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rajcaniova, Miroslava; Drabik, Dusan; Ciaian, Pavel

    2013-01-01

    We estimate the role of biofuel policies in determining which country is the price leader in world biofuel markets using a cointegration analysis and a Vector Error Correction (VEC) model. Weekly prices are analyzed for the EU, US, and Brazilian ethanol and biodiesel markets in the 2002–2010 and 2005–2010 time periods, respectively. The US blender's tax credit and Brazil's consumer tax exemption are found to play a role in determining the ethanol prices in other countries. For biodiesel, our results demonstrate that EU policies – the consumer tax exemption and blending target – tend to determine the world biodiesel price. - Highlights: • We estimate the role of biofuel policies in determining biofuel prices. • We use a cointegration analysis and the Vector Error Correction (VEC) model. • The biofuel policies in US and Brazil determine the world ethanol prices. • EU biofuel policies tend to form the world biodiesel price

  10. Vector velocity volume flow estimation: Sources of error and corrections applied for arteriovenous fistulas

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Jonas; Olesen, Jacob Bjerring; Stuart, Matthias Bo

    2016-01-01

    radius. The error sources were also studied in vivo under realistic clinical conditions, and the theoretical results were applied for correcting the volume flow errors. Twenty dialysis patients with arteriovenous fistulas were scanned to obtain vector flow maps of fistulas. When fitting an ellipsis......A method for vector velocity volume flow estimation is presented, along with an investigation of its sources of error and correction of actual volume flow measurements. Volume flow errors are quantified theoretically by numerical modeling, through flow phantom measurements, and studied in vivo...

  11. A QMRA Model for Salmonella in Pork Products During Preparation and Consumption

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Swart, A. N.; Leusden, F.; Nauta, Maarten

    2016-01-01

    As part of a quantitative microbiological risk assessment (QMRA) food chain model, this article describes a model for the consumer phase for Salmonella‐contaminated pork products. Three pork products were chosen as a proxy for the entire pork product spectrum: pork cuts, minced meat patties, and ...... factors “knife cleaning” and “preparation of a salad” are important parameters for pork cuts. For minced meat cleaning of the board, salad consumption, refrigerator temperature, and storage time were significant....

  12. Dynamic Relation Mechanism between Cotton Future Price and Stock Price of Related Listed Companies

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2011-01-01

    The Dynamic relation mechanism between ZCE cotton futures price and related listed company stock price has been studied based on the metastock historical data in January 1st,2007 to September 1st,2010,Johansen co-integration analysis,Vector error correction model,Granger causality test and variance decomposition method.The results indicated that:long-term equilibrium relationship existed between ZCE cotton futures price and Xinsai share stock price while which changed in the same tendency and speed in the long-term.Cotton futures price is the main reason for the changing of Xinsai share stock price.The lead-lag relationship in changing course had been confirmed that existed between ZCE cotton futures price and the Xinsai share stock price.Meanwhile,the forward pass mechanism of price changing information had been found only from the ZCE cotton futures market to the stock market while showing asymmetry.Conclusions of the study can be used for cotton and related corporate to hedge business risks by the cotton price changes.

  13. MODEL PERMINTAAN UANG DI INDONESIA DENGAN PENDEKATAN VECTOR ERROR CORRECTION MODEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    imam mukhlis

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available This research aims to estimate the demand for money model in Indonesia for 2005.2-2015.12. The variables used in this research are ; demand for money, interest rate, inflation, and exchange rate (IDR/US$. The stationary test with ADF used to test unit root in the data. Cointegration test applied to estimate the long run relationship berween variables. This research employed the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM to estimate the money demand model in Indonesia. The results showed that all the data was stationer at the difference level (1%. There were long run relationship between interest rate, inflation and exchange rate to demand for money in Indonesia. The VECM model could not explaine interaction between explanatory variables to independent variables. In the short run, there were not relationship between interest rate, inflation and exchange rate to demand for money in Indonesia for 2005.2-2015.12

  14. Multivariate Time Series Forecasting of Crude Palm Oil Price Using Machine Learning Techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kanchymalay, Kasturi; Salim, N.; Sukprasert, Anupong; Krishnan, Ramesh; Raba'ah Hashim, Ummi

    2017-08-01

    The aim of this paper was to study the correlation between crude palm oil (CPO) price, selected vegetable oil prices (such as soybean oil, coconut oil, and olive oil, rapeseed oil and sunflower oil), crude oil and the monthly exchange rate. Comparative analysis was then performed on CPO price forecasting results using the machine learning techniques. Monthly CPO prices, selected vegetable oil prices, crude oil prices and monthly exchange rate data from January 1987 to February 2017 were utilized. Preliminary analysis showed a positive and high correlation between the CPO price and soy bean oil price and also between CPO price and crude oil price. Experiments were conducted using multi-layer perception, support vector regression and Holt Winter exponential smoothing techniques. The results were assessed by using criteria of root mean square error (RMSE), means absolute error (MAE), means absolute percentage error (MAPE) and Direction of accuracy (DA). Among these three techniques, support vector regression(SVR) with Sequential minimal optimization (SMO) algorithm showed relatively better results compared to multi-layer perceptron and Holt Winters exponential smoothing method.

  15. The world market for soybeans: price transmission into Brazil and effects from the timing of crop and trade

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frederico A. Turolla

    2007-08-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the price transmission in the world market for soybeans using time series econometrics models. The theoretical model developed by Mundlack and Larson (1992 is based on the Law of the One Price, which assumes price equalization across all local markets in the long run and allows for deviations in the short run. The international market was characterized by three relevant soybean prices: Rotterdam Port, Argentina and the United States. The paper estimates the elasticity of transmission of these prices into soybean prices in Brazil. There were carried causality and cointegration tests in order to identify whether there is significant long-term relationship among these variables. There was also calculated the impulse-response function and forecast error variance decomposition to analyze the transmission of variations in the international prices over Brazilian prices. An exogeneity test was also carried out so as to check whether the variables respond to short term deviations from equilibrium values. Results validated the Law of the One Price in the long run. In line with many studies, this paper showed that Brazil and Argentina can be seen as price takers as long as the speed of their adjustment to shocks is faster than in the United States, the latter being a price maker.

  16. GPS Position Time Series @ JPL

    Science.gov (United States)

    Owen, Susan; Moore, Angelyn; Kedar, Sharon; Liu, Zhen; Webb, Frank; Heflin, Mike; Desai, Shailen

    2013-01-01

    Different flavors of GPS time series analysis at JPL - Use same GPS Precise Point Positioning Analysis raw time series - Variations in time series analysis/post-processing driven by different users. center dot JPL Global Time Series/Velocities - researchers studying reference frame, combining with VLBI/SLR/DORIS center dot JPL/SOPAC Combined Time Series/Velocities - crustal deformation for tectonic, volcanic, ground water studies center dot ARIA Time Series/Coseismic Data Products - Hazard monitoring and response focused center dot ARIA data system designed to integrate GPS and InSAR - GPS tropospheric delay used for correcting InSAR - Caltech's GIANT time series analysis uses GPS to correct orbital errors in InSAR - Zhen Liu's talking tomorrow on InSAR Time Series analysis

  17. Time-dependent depletion of nitrite in pork/beef and chicken meat products and its effect on nitrite intake estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merino, Leonardo; Darnerud, Per Ola; Toldrá, Fidel; Ilbäck, Nils-Gunnar

    2016-01-01

    ABSTRACT The food additive nitrite (E249, E250) is commonly used in meat curing as a food preservation method. Because of potential negative health effects of nitrite, its use is strictly regulated. In an earlier study we have shown that the calculated intake of nitrite in children can exceed the acceptable daily intake (ADI) when conversion from dietary nitrate to nitrite is included. This study examined time-dependent changes in nitrite levels in four Swedish meat products frequently eaten by children: pork/beef sausage, liver paté and two types of chicken sausage, and how the production process, storage and also boiling (e.g., simmering in salted water) and frying affect the initial added nitrite level. The results showed a steep decrease in nitrite level between the point of addition to the product and the first sampling of the product 24 h later. After this time, residual nitrite levels continued to decrease, but much more slowly, until the recommended use-by date. Interestingly, this continuing decrease in nitrite was much smaller in the chicken products than in the pork/beef products. In a pilot study on pork/beef sausage, we found no effects of boiling on residual nitrite levels, but frying decreased nitrite levels by 50%. In scenarios of time-dependent depletion of nitrite using the data obtained for sausages to represent all cured meat products and including conversion from dietary nitrate, calculated nitrite intake in 4-year-old children generally exceeded the ADI. Moreover, the actual intake of nitrite from cured meat is dependent on the type of meat source, with a higher residual nitrite levels in chicken products compared with pork/beef products. This may result in increased nitrite exposure among consumers shifting their consumption pattern of processed meats from red to white meat products. PMID:26743589

  18. Bayesian Estimation and Selection of Nonlinear Vector Error Correction Models: The Case of the Sugar-Ethanol-Oil Nexus in Brazil

    OpenAIRE

    Kelvin Balcombe; George Rapsomanikis

    2008-01-01

    Nonlinear adjustment toward long-run price equilibrium relationships in the sugar-ethanol-oil nexus in Brazil is examined. We develop generalized bivariate error correction models that allow for cointegration between sugar, ethanol, and oil prices, where dynamic adjustments are potentially nonlinear functions of the disequilibrium errors. A range of models are estimated using Bayesian Monte Carlo Markov Chain algorithms and compared using Bayesian model selection methods. The results suggest ...

  19. Review of current GPS methodologies for producing accurate time series and their error sources

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Xiaoxing; Montillet, Jean-Philippe; Fernandes, Rui; Bos, Machiel; Yu, Kegen; Hua, Xianghong; Jiang, Weiping

    2017-05-01

    The Global Positioning System (GPS) is an important tool to observe and model geodynamic processes such as plate tectonics and post-glacial rebound. In the last three decades, GPS has seen tremendous advances in the precision of the measurements, which allow researchers to study geophysical signals through a careful analysis of daily time series of GPS receiver coordinates. However, the GPS observations contain errors and the time series can be described as the sum of a real signal and noise. The signal itself can again be divided into station displacements due to geophysical causes and to disturbing factors. Examples of the latter are errors in the realization and stability of the reference frame and corrections due to ionospheric and tropospheric delays and GPS satellite orbit errors. There is an increasing demand on detecting millimeter to sub-millimeter level ground displacement signals in order to further understand regional scale geodetic phenomena hence requiring further improvements in the sensitivity of the GPS solutions. This paper provides a review spanning over 25 years of advances in processing strategies, error mitigation methods and noise modeling for the processing and analysis of GPS daily position time series. The processing of the observations is described step-by-step and mainly with three different strategies in order to explain the weaknesses and strengths of the existing methodologies. In particular, we focus on the choice of the stochastic model in the GPS time series, which directly affects the estimation of the functional model including, for example, tectonic rates, seasonal signals and co-seismic offsets. Moreover, the geodetic community continues to develop computational methods to fully automatize all phases from analysis of GPS time series. This idea is greatly motivated by the large number of GPS receivers installed around the world for diverse applications ranging from surveying small deformations of civil engineering structures (e

  20. Análise da elasticidade de transmissão de preços no mercado brasileiro de algodão Analysis of price transmission elasticity in the Brazilian cotton market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marisa Zeferino Barbosa

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available The article analyzes the elasticity of price transmission in the Brazilian cotton market from January, 1985, to December, 2000. For this purpose, the Dickey-Fuller Augmented (ADF unit root test, the Johansen cointegration test, the Vector Error Correction model (VEC, and the exogenicity test are applied. The results show that the One Price Law does not apply to the Brazilian cotton market, because variations in cotton international prices are not fully transmitted to domestic prices in Brazil in the long run. The exogenicity test shows that domestic cotton prices in Brazil do not react to changes in the long run equilibrium relationship. Possibly, these results are directly associated with government intervention in the sector (1985 to 1988 as well as to the credit conditions available for cotton acquisition in the international market between 1990 and 1997.

  1. vector bilinear autoregressive time series model and its superiority

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    KEYWORDS: Linear time series, Autoregressive process, Autocorrelation function, Partial autocorrelation function,. Vector time .... important result on matrix algebra with respect to the spectral ..... application to covariance analysis of super-.

  2. Chemical and physical parameters of dried salted pork meat

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Petronela Cviková

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the present study was analysed and evaluated chemical and physical parameters of dried salted pork neck and ham. Dried salted meat is one of the main meat products typically produced with a variety of flavors and textures. Neck (14 samples and ham (14 samples was salted by nitrite salt mixture during 1week. The nitrite salt mixture for salting process (dry salting was used. This salt mixture contains: salt, dextrose, maltodextrin, flavourings, stabilizer E316, taste enhancer E621, nitrite mixture. The meat samples were dried at 4 °C and relative humudity 85% after 1 week salting. The weight of each sample was approximately 1 kg. After salting were vacuum-packed and analysed after 1 week. The traditional dry-cured meat such as dry-cured ham and neck obtained after 12 - 24 months of ripening under controlled conditions. The average protein content was significantly (p <0.001 lower in dried pork neck in comparison with dried salted pork ham. The average intramuscular fat was significantly (p <0.001 lower in dried pork ham in comparison with dried salted pork neck. The average moisture was significantly lower (p ≤0.05 in dried salted ham in comparison with dried pork neck. The average pH value was 5.50 in dried salted pork ham and 5.75 in dried salted pork neck. The content of arginine, phenylalanine, isoleucine, leucine and threonine in dried salted ham was significantly lower (p <0.001 in comparison with dried salted pork neck. The proportion of analysed amino acids from total proteins was 56.31% in pork salted dried ham and 56.50% in pork salted dried neck.  Normal 0 21 false false false EN-GB X-NONE X-NONE Normal 0 21 false false false SK X-NONE X-NONE

  3. REAL STOCK PRICES AND THE LONG-RUN MONEY DEMAND FUNCTION IN MALAYSIA: Evidence from Error Correction Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Naziruddin Abdullah

    2004-06-01

    Full Text Available This study adopts the error correction model to empirically investigate the role of real stock prices in the long run-money demand in the Malaysian financial or money market for the period 1977: Q1-1997: Q2. Specifically, an attempt is made to check whether the real narrow money (M1/P is cointegrated with the selected variables like industrial production index (IPI, one-year T-Bill rates (TB12, and real stock prices (RSP. If a cointegration between the variables, i.e., the dependent and independent variables, is found to be the case, it may imply that there exists a long-run co-movement among these variables in the Malaysian money market. From the empirical results it is found that the cointegration between money demand and real stock prices (RSP is positive, implying that in the long run there is a positive association between real stock prices (RSP and demand for real narrow money (M1/P. The policy implication that can be extracted from this study is that an increase in stock prices is likely to necessitate an expansionary monetary policy to prevent nominal income or inflation target from undershooting.

  4. Detection of pork adulteration in processed meat by species-specific PCR-QIAxcel procedure based on D-loop and cytb genes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barakat, Hassan; El-Garhy, Hoda A S; Moustafa, Mahmoud M A

    2014-12-01

    Detection of pork meat adulteration in "halal" meat products is a crucial issue in the fields of modern food inspection according to implementation of very strict procedures for halal food labelling. Present study aims at detecting and quantifying pork adulteration in both raw and cooked manufactured sausages. This is by applying an optimized species-specific PCR procedure followed by QIAxcel capillary electrophoresis system. Manufacturing experiment was designed by incorporating pork with beef meat at 0.01 to 10 % substitution levels beside beef and pork sausages as negative and positive controls, respectively. Subsequently, sausages were divided into raw and cooked sausages then subjected to DNA extraction. Results indicated that PCR amplifications of mitochondrial D-loop and cytochrome b (cytb) genes by porcine-specific primers produced 185 and 117 bp pork-specific DNA fragments in sausages, respectively. No DNA fragments were detected when PCR was applied on beef sausage DNA confirming primers specificity. For internal control, a 141-bp DNA fragment of eukaryotic 18S ribosomal RNA (rRNA) gene was amplified from pork and beef DNA templates. Although PCR followed by either QIAxcel or agarose techniques were efficient for targeted DNA fragments differentiation even as low as 0.01 % (pork/meat: w/w). For proficiency, adequacy, and performance, PCR-QIA procedure is highly sensitive, a time-saver, electronically documented, mutagenic-reagent free, of little manual errors, accurate in measuring PCR fragments length, and quantitative data supplier. In conclusion, it can be suggested that optimized PCR-QAI is considered as a rapid and sensitive method for routine pork detection and quantification in raw or processed meat.

  5. Effect of partial replacement of pork meat with olive oil on the sensory quality of dry-ripened venison sausage

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M.C. Utrilla

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Six assays of low-fat venison salchichon were produced using varying proportions of olive oil to replace the traditional pork meat added. The control contained 75% lean venison and 25% pork meat; in the other assays, 15, 25, 35, 45 and 55% of the pork meat was replaced by olive oil. Samples were evaluated by quantitative descriptive sensory analysis and consumer testing. Descriptive sensory analysis revealed significant differences for most of the attributes studied. The replacement of 35% or more of pork meat by olive oil, prompted a decrease in odour intensity, spicy odour, hardness and an increase of fat mouthfeel, together with the olive oil perception. By contrast, the replacement of 25% of pork meat by olive oil yielded a salchichon not greatly different to the control. Consumers accepted all assays, but preferred those in which no more than 25% of the pork meat was replaced by olive oil. From a sensory standpoint, therefore, it is recommended that the replacement of pork meat by olive oil in this product should not exceed 25%.

  6. On-line NIR analysis of fat, water and protein in industrial scale ground meat batches.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tøgersen, G; Isaksson, T; Nilsen, B N; Bakker, E A; Hildrum, K I

    1999-01-01

    Fat, water and protein contents in industrial scale meat batches were determined on-line by near infrared (NIR) reflectance spectroscopy. The NIR instrument was mounted at the outlet of a large meat grinder, and the measurements were performed in an industrial environment. Beef and pork samples, with chemical compositions of 7-26% fat, 58-75% water and 15-21% protein, were processed with hole diameters of 13mm in the grinder plate. Calibrations were made both for a combined set of beef and pork samples, and for separate sets of beef and pork samples. Validations were either done by full cross validation of the calibration set, or by bias corrected prediction of a test set. Prediction errors for the two sample sets, expressed as root mean square errors of cross validation or standard error of prediction, were in the ranges 0.82-1.49% fat, 0.94-1.33% water and 0.35-0.70% protein, depending of sample set and species of animal. The presented application is an improvement to the existing manual meat standardisation procedure, and has been implemented for regular use in a Norwegian meat manufacturing plant.

  7. The Comparison Analysis of the Main Chemical Composition Parameters of Wild Boar Meat and Pork

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erika Bodnárné Skobrák

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available The chemical composition of wild boar meat from wild boar parks with various habitats and different feeding facilities was analysed. Samples were collected from m. serratus anterior – during the winter hunting period. The protein, the total fat, the saturated and unsaturated fatty acid content were measured and also and those elements which have great importance on human alimentation. The results were compared with other author’s data of the same parameters of pork. The aim of the study was to compare the effect of different feeding systems on the ingredients of wild boar meat, and the accidental analogy with the ingredients of pork. There was no difference in protein content. The value of miristic acid (C14:0 in the samples of extensively and intensively fed group was more favourable than that of pork. Pork contains more MUFA (palmitoleic acid – C16:1. The semi-intensively fed wild boar’s meat and pork contained linoleic acid (C18:3 n3 almost on the same level. The greatest difference was detected in the level of arachidonic acid (C20:4 n6. The samples from all wild boar groups contained more of this fatty acid than it was published about domestic pigs. Out of the microelements, the iodine and zinc had higher value in wild boar meat than in pork.

  8. Metabolic profiling of meat: assessment of pork hygiene and contamination with Salmonella typhimurium.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Yun; Cheung, William; Winder, Catherine L; Dunn, Warwick B; Goodacre, Royston

    2011-02-07

    Spoilage in meat is the result of the action of microorganisms and results in changes of meat and microbial metabolism. This process may include pathogenic food poisoning bacteria such as Salmonella typhimurium, and it is important that these are differentiated from the natural spoilage process caused by non-pathogenic microorganisms. In this study we investigated the application of metabolic profiling using gas chromatography-mass spectrometry, to assess the microbial contamination of pork. Metabolite profiles were generated from microorganisms, originating from the natural spoilage process and from the artificial contamination with S. typhimurium. In an initial experiment, we investigated changes in the metabolic profiles over a 72 hour time course at 25 °C and established time points indicative of the spoilage process. A further experiment was performed to provide in-depth analysis of the metabolites characteristic of contamination by S. typhimurium. We applied a three-way PARAllel FACtor analysis 2 (PARAFAC2) multivariate algorithm to model the metabolic profiles. In addition, two univariate statistical tests, two-sample Wilcoxon signed rank test and Friedman test, were employed to identify metabolites which showed significant difference between natural spoiled and S. typhimurium contaminated samples. Consistent results from the two independent experiments were obtained showing the discrimination of the metabolic profiles of the natural spoiled pork chops and those contaminated with S. typhimurium. The analysis identified 17 metabolites of significant interest (including various types of amino acid and fatty acid) in the discrimination of pork contaminated with the pathogenic microorganism.

  9. Forecasting electricity spot-prices using linear univariate time-series models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cuaresma, Jesus Crespo; Hlouskova, Jaroslava; Kossmeier, Stephan; Obersteiner, Michael

    2004-01-01

    This paper studies the forecasting abilities of a battery of univariate models on hourly electricity spot prices, using data from the Leipzig Power Exchange. The specifications studied include autoregressive models, autoregressive-moving average models and unobserved component models. The results show that specifications, where each hour of the day is modelled separately present uniformly better forecasting properties than specifications for the whole time-series, and that the inclusion of simple probabilistic processes for the arrival of extreme price events can lead to improvements in the forecasting abilities of univariate models for electricity spot prices. (Author)

  10. CAUSAL RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN GRAIN, MEAT PRICES AND EXCHANGE RATES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Naveen Musunuru

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Understanding agricultural commodity price relationships are important as they help producers improve their awareness regarding production costs and ultimately aid in income determination. The present paper empirically examines the dynamic interrelationships among grain, meat prices and the U.S. dollar exchange rate. Johansen cointegration tests reveal no cointegrating relationships among the study variables. Majority of the commodities studied in the paper exhibited unidirectional causality except for corn and lean hogs. The vector autoregression (VAR model results indicate that the grain and meat prices are influenced by their own past prices. The role of exchange rates is found to be limited in linking the agricultural commodities.

  11. SUSTAINABILITY OF SUSTAINABLE PALM OIL: A MARKET INTEGRATION ANALYSIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Diana Chalil

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Crude Palm Oil (CPO is the biggest consumed vegetable oil in the world. The increase in CPO production raises concern on the environmental impact even outside the producing countries. As a response to this matter, the EU has made a requirement to only import certified CPO (CSPO. India and China, the two biggest importers in the world, are less restrictive to the environmental issues, and their demands are more influenced by CPO price levels. These countries are the main export markets for Indonesia and Malaysia, the two biggest CPO exporters in the world. This research using monthly price data from the Netherlands, Germany, Italy, EU28, India, China, Indonesia and Malaysia. Market integrations are tested with Cointegration Test, Vector Error Correction Model and Seemingly Unrelated Regression. The results show that these markets are integrated, but European countries are unlikely to lead the price movement. Therefore, the concern on sustainable certification from the European countries still slowly spreads to other main importers, resulting in low absorption of CSPO. Keywords: market integration; sustainable palm oil; seemingly unrelated regression; vector Error correction model

  12. Meat consumption patterns in Vietnam: effects of household characteristics on pork and poultry consumption

    OpenAIRE

    Nguyen, Van Phuong; Mergenthaler, Marcus

    2013-01-01

    This study relates social-demographic characteristics of Vietnamese households to their consumption of meat. Tobit models are estimated drawing on the latest Vietnamese Household Living Standard Survey in 2010 (VHLSS 2010). The analysis of demand for pork and poultry in Vietnamese households demonstrates that the meat demand in Vietnam is significantly affected by socio-economic and geographic factors.

  13. S-shape relationship between customer satisfaction and willingness to pay premium prices for high quality cured pork products in Spain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cotes-Torres, Alejandro; Muñoz-Gallego, Pablo A; Cotes-Torres, José Miguel

    2012-03-01

    This paper explores 2 different probabilistic models explaining willingness to pay premium prices for high-quality cured products from the swine industry. Seven cured pork products (sausage, fuet, ham, loin, shoulder, salami and pepperoni) were studied in 9 food-stores in Valladolid, Spain. Consumers of the products were interviewed (686 completed surveys). It was found by using mixed effect statistical models that the relationship between willingness to pay a premium price and customer satisfaction had nonlinear behavior, following an S-shape with inverted slope which was the first empirical evidence of this type of behavior in meat products in real market conditions. It was also established that the interaction between satisfaction and current expenditure on the product was significant and indispensable for explaining consumers' willingness to pay premium price for cured pork products. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Development and validation of a rapid test system for detection of pork meat and collagen residues.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Masiri, J; Benoit, L; Barrios-Lopez, B; Thienes, C; Meshgi, M; Agapov, A; Dobritsa, A; Nadala, C; Samadpour, M

    2016-11-01

    Mislabeling, contamination, and economic adulteration of meat products with undeclared pork tissues are illegal under regulations promulgated by numerous regulatory agencies. Nonetheless, analysis of the European meat industry has revealed pervasive meat adulteration, necessitating more extensive application of meat authentication testing. As existing methods for meat speciation require specialized equipment and/or training, we developed a detection system based on a lateral flow device (LFD) assay format capable of rapidly (~35min) identifying porcine residues derived from raw meat, cooked meat, and gelatin down to 0.01%, 1.0%, and 2.5% contamination, respectively. Specificity analysis revealed no cross-reactivity with meat derived from chicken, turkey, horse, beef, lamb, or goat. Comparison with a commercial ELISA kit and PCR method revealed similar if not improved sensitivity, with the added feature that the LFD-based system required considerably less time to perform. Accordingly, this test system should aid the food industry and food control authorities in monitoring for adulteration with pork. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Time Series Analysis of Wheat flour Price Shocks in Pakistan: A Case Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Asad Raza Abdi; Ali Hassan Halepoto; Aisha Bashir Shah; Faiz M. Shaikh

    2013-01-01

    The current research investigates the wheat flour Price Shocks in Pakistan: A case analysis. Data was collected by using secondary sources by using Time series Analysis, and data were analyzed by using SPSS-20 version. It was revealed that the price of wheat flour increases from last four decades, and trend of price shocks shows that due to certain market variation and supply and demand shocks also play a positive relationship in price shocks in the wheat prices. It was further revealed th...

  16. Integrating nutrient bioavailability and co-production links when identifying sustainable diets: How low should we reduce meat consumption?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barré, Tangui; Perignon, Marlène; Gazan, Rozenn; Vieux, Florent; Micard, Valérie; Amiot, Marie-Josèphe; Darmon, Nicole

    2018-01-01

    Reducing the consumption of meat and other animal-based products is widely advocated to improve the sustainability of diets in high-income countries. However, such reduction may impair nutritional adequacy, since the bioavailability of key nutrients is higher when they come from animal- vs plant-based foods. Meat reduction may also affect the balance between foods co-produced within the same animal production system. The objective was to assess the impact of introducing nutrient bioavailability and co-production links considerations on the dietary changes needed - especially regarding meat ‒ to improve diet sustainability. Diet optimization with linear and non-linear programming was used to design, for each gender, three modeled diets departing the least from the mean observed French diet (OBS) while reducing by at least 30% the diet-related environmental impacts (greenhouse gas emissions, eutrophication, acidification): i) in the nutrition-environment (NE) model, the fulfillment of recommended dietary allowances for all nutrients was imposed; ii) in the NE-bioavailability (NEB) model, nutritional adequacy was further ensured by accounting for iron, zinc, protein and provitamin A bioavailability; iii) in the NEB-co-production (NEB-CP) model, two links between co-produced animal foods (milk-beef and blood sausage-pork) were additionally included into the models by proportionally co-constraining their respective quantities. The price and environmental impacts of individual foods were assumed to be constant. 'Fruit and vegetables' and 'Starches' quantities increased in all modeled diets compared to OBS. In parallel, total meat and ruminant meat quantities decreased. Starting from 110g/d women's OBS diet (168g/d for men), total meat quantity decreased by 78%, 67% and 32% for women (68%, 66% and 62% for men) in NE, NEB and NEB-CP diets, respectively. Starting from 36g/d women's OBS diet (54g/d for men), ruminant meat quantity dropped severely by 84% and 87% in NE and

  17. Integrating nutrient bioavailability and co-production links when identifying sustainable diets: How low should we reduce meat consumption?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gazan, Rozenn; Vieux, Florent; Micard, Valérie; Amiot, Marie-Josèphe; Darmon, Nicole

    2018-01-01

    Background Reducing the consumption of meat and other animal-based products is widely advocated to improve the sustainability of diets in high-income countries. However, such reduction may impair nutritional adequacy, since the bioavailability of key nutrients is higher when they come from animal- vs plant-based foods. Meat reduction may also affect the balance between foods co-produced within the same animal production system. Objective The objective was to assess the impact of introducing nutrient bioavailability and co-production links considerations on the dietary changes needed − especially regarding meat ‒ to improve diet sustainability. Methods Diet optimization with linear and non-linear programming was used to design, for each gender, three modeled diets departing the least from the mean observed French diet (OBS) while reducing by at least 30% the diet-related environmental impacts (greenhouse gas emissions, eutrophication, acidification): i) in the nutrition-environment (NE) model, the fulfillment of recommended dietary allowances for all nutrients was imposed; ii) in the NE-bioavailability (NEB) model, nutritional adequacy was further ensured by accounting for iron, zinc, protein and provitamin A bioavailability; iii) in the NEB-co-production (NEB-CP) model, two links between co-produced animal foods (milk–beef and blood sausage–pork) were additionally included into the models by proportionally co-constraining their respective quantities. The price and environmental impacts of individual foods were assumed to be constant. Results ‘Fruit and vegetables’ and ‘Starches’ quantities increased in all modeled diets compared to OBS. In parallel, total meat and ruminant meat quantities decreased. Starting from 110g/d women’s OBS diet (168g/d for men), total meat quantity decreased by 78%, 67% and 32% for women (68%, 66% and 62% for men) in NE, NEB and NEB-CP diets, respectively. Starting from 36g/d women’s OBS diet (54g/d for men), ruminant

  18. Integrating nutrient bioavailability and co-production links when identifying sustainable diets: How low should we reduce meat consumption?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tangui Barré

    Full Text Available Reducing the consumption of meat and other animal-based products is widely advocated to improve the sustainability of diets in high-income countries. However, such reduction may impair nutritional adequacy, since the bioavailability of key nutrients is higher when they come from animal- vs plant-based foods. Meat reduction may also affect the balance between foods co-produced within the same animal production system.The objective was to assess the impact of introducing nutrient bioavailability and co-production links considerations on the dietary changes needed - especially regarding meat ‒ to improve diet sustainability.Diet optimization with linear and non-linear programming was used to design, for each gender, three modeled diets departing the least from the mean observed French diet (OBS while reducing by at least 30% the diet-related environmental impacts (greenhouse gas emissions, eutrophication, acidification: i in the nutrition-environment (NE model, the fulfillment of recommended dietary allowances for all nutrients was imposed; ii in the NE-bioavailability (NEB model, nutritional adequacy was further ensured by accounting for iron, zinc, protein and provitamin A bioavailability; iii in the NEB-co-production (NEB-CP model, two links between co-produced animal foods (milk-beef and blood sausage-pork were additionally included into the models by proportionally co-constraining their respective quantities. The price and environmental impacts of individual foods were assumed to be constant.'Fruit and vegetables' and 'Starches' quantities increased in all modeled diets compared to OBS. In parallel, total meat and ruminant meat quantities decreased. Starting from 110g/d women's OBS diet (168g/d for men, total meat quantity decreased by 78%, 67% and 32% for women (68%, 66% and 62% for men in NE, NEB and NEB-CP diets, respectively. Starting from 36g/d women's OBS diet (54g/d for men, ruminant meat quantity dropped severely by 84% and 87% in NE

  19. Agricultural and oil commodities: price transmission and market integration between US and Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Franco Rosa

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Purpose of this article it to get some evidences of market interaction between United States and Italy using the time series analysis of spot prices spanning from January 1999 to May 2012 for crude oil and three ag-commodities: wheat, corn and soybean. These crops have been selected for their relevance in ag-commodity exchanges between US and Italy markets. The integration between US and Italy agricultural markets is hypothesized for the consistent volume of crop traded between these two countries while the price transmission is related to the leading price signals of the CBT (Chicago Board of Trade. The integration between oil and ag-commodity markets is suggested both by the large use of energy intensive inputs, (fertilizer, seed, machinery in production of these ag-commodities, and their use in biofuel production. The results suggest: a for US market the evidence of market integration between crude oil and US ag-commodities; b for Italy the integration with US ag-commodity markets and less evidence of integration with the oil market. These results are valuable information both for the agents and policy makers contributing to improve the information accuracy to predict the price movements used by marketing operators for their strategies and policy makers to set up policies to re-establish conditions of market efficiency and allocate these ag-commodities in alternative market channels.

  20. Artificial neural network model of pork meat cubes osmotic dehydration

    OpenAIRE

    Pezo, Lato L.; Ćurčić, Biljana Lj.; Filipović, Vladimir S.; Nićetin, Milica R.; Koprivica, Gordana B.; Mišljenović, Nevena M.; Lević, Ljubinko B.

    2013-01-01

    Mass transfer of pork meat cubes (M. triceps brachii), shaped as 1x1x1 cm, during osmotic dehydration (OD) and under atmospheric pressure was investigated in this paper. The effects of different parameters, such as concentration of sugar beet molasses (60-80%, w/w), temperature (20-50ºC), and immersion time (1-5 h) in terms of water loss (WL), solid gain (SG), final dry matter content (DM), and water activity (aw), were investigated using experimental results. Five artificial neural net...

  1. Using time series structural characteristics to analyze grain prices in food insecure countries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davenport, Frank; Funk, Chris

    2015-01-01

    Two components of food security monitoring are accurate forecasts of local grain prices and the ability to identify unusual price behavior. We evaluated a method that can both facilitate forecasts of cross-country grain price data and identify dissimilarities in price behavior across multiple markets. This method, characteristic based clustering (CBC), identifies similarities in multiple time series based on structural characteristics in the data. Here, we conducted a simulation experiment to determine if CBC can be used to improve the accuracy of maize price forecasts. We then compared forecast accuracies among clustered and non-clustered price series over a rolling time horizon. We found that the accuracy of forecasts on clusters of time series were equal to or worse than forecasts based on individual time series. However, in the following experiment we found that CBC was still useful for price analysis. We used the clusters to explore the similarity of price behavior among Kenyan maize markets. We found that price behavior in the isolated markets of Mandera and Marsabit has become increasingly dissimilar from markets in other Kenyan cities, and that these dissimilarities could not be explained solely by geographic distance. The structural isolation of Mandera and Marsabit that we find in this paper is supported by field studies on food security and market integration in Kenya. Our results suggest that a market with a unique price series (as measured by structural characteristics that differ from neighboring markets) may lack market integration and food security.

  2. Chemical analysis and full value of albumens of meat of pork

    OpenAIRE

    BIRTA G.O.

    2011-01-01

    Quality of meat has a genetic conditionality and changes depending on external factors. The pedigree differences of quality of pork are based on quantitative correlation the degree of forming of muscular and fatty fabric. Meat of pigs of greasy and meat breeds already on a 5-6 monthly age has a complex of chemical and фізико-біологічних properties which determine his maturity, and meat and bacon to 6-7 monthly, that is why the animals of different directions of the productivity in a the same ...

  3. Herbal Extracts for Ensuring Pork Meat Quality during Cold Storage

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Grāmatiņa Ilze

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Oxidation and microbial spoilage have a negative effect on the quality of meat and meat products, causing changes in their sensory and nutritional properties. Herbs contain biologically active compounds, like phenols with antioxidative and antimicrobial properties. Phenols can be used as substitutes for commercial antioxidants to prevent lipid oxidation, thus maintaining the colour and flavour of the product. The aim of the study was to investigate the the potential use of herbal extracts in ethanol/water application for the maintenance of pork meat quality during storage. Four herbs growing in Latvia — nettle (Urtica dioica L., lovage (Levisticum officinale L., oregano (Origanum vulgare, and horseradish (Armoracia rusticana L. were chosen for the study. An optimal ethanol concentration for the extraction of the phenolic compounds was obtained with ethanol 50%/water 50% concentration (v/v. Prepared herbal extracts were added to chilled pork to determine the quality of the pork during storage. Changes in meat quality and its sensory properties for chilled pork without extracts appeared on day 18 of storage. Negative changes in sensory properties of meat samples with nettle extract were observed on day 22 of storage, and with lovage, oregano, and horseradish extracts on day 32. Statistically significant differences (p ≤ 0.05 were observed for microbiological indices between pork samples with herbal extracts and the control sample.

  4. Development of a Rapid Immunodiagnostic Test for Pork Components in Raw Beef and Chicken Meats: a Preliminary Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. N. Depamede

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available A rapid immunodiagnostic test that provides visual evidence of the presence of pork components in raw beef and chicken meats was developed. Colloidal gold was prepared and conjugated with anti-Swine IgG polyclonal antibody. Immunochromatographic test strips were produced, and then were used to test laboratory adulterated raw meat samples. The samples consisted adulteration meat, immunodiagnostic, pork, rapid test of pork-in-beef, or pork-in-chicken at 1/0; 1/100; 1/1,000; 1/5,000; 1/10,000 (w/w adulteration levels that were extracted in phosphate-buffered saline. Raw beef and chicken meats without pork were included as controls. Analysis was completed in 10 min. Detection limit was 1/5,000 (w/w, although 1/10,000 was also observed. This immunodiagnostic tests can be conveniently applied to detect low levels of pork components in raw beef and chicken meat products. For the commercial purposes, further studies need to be carried out.

  5. Characteristics of the co-fluctuation matrix transmission network based on financial multi-time series

    OpenAIRE

    Huajiao Li; Haizhong An; Xiangyun Gao; Wei Fang

    2015-01-01

    The co-fluctuation of two time series has often been studied by analysing the correlation coefficient over a selected period. However, in both domestic and global financial markets, there are more than two active time series that fluctuate constantly as a result of various factors, including geographic locations, information communications and so on. In addition to correlation relationships over longer periods, daily co-fluctuation relationships and their transmission features are also import...

  6. Models for dependent time series

    CERN Document Server

    Tunnicliffe Wilson, Granville; Haywood, John

    2015-01-01

    Models for Dependent Time Series addresses the issues that arise and the methodology that can be applied when the dependence between time series is described and modeled. Whether you work in the economic, physical, or life sciences, the book shows you how to draw meaningful, applicable, and statistically valid conclusions from multivariate (or vector) time series data.The first four chapters discuss the two main pillars of the subject that have been developed over the last 60 years: vector autoregressive modeling and multivariate spectral analysis. These chapters provide the foundational mater

  7. Time series modeling, computation, and inference

    CERN Document Server

    Prado, Raquel

    2010-01-01

    The authors systematically develop a state-of-the-art analysis and modeling of time series. … this book is well organized and well written. The authors present various statistical models for engineers to solve problems in time series analysis. Readers no doubt will learn state-of-the-art techniques from this book.-Hsun-Hsien Chang, Computing Reviews, March 2012My favorite chapters were on dynamic linear models and vector AR and vector ARMA models.-William Seaver, Technometrics, August 2011… a very modern entry to the field of time-series modelling, with a rich reference list of the current lit

  8. Correction for dynamic bias error in transmission measurements of void fraction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Andersson, P.; Sundén, E. Andersson; Svärd, S. Jacobsson; Sjöstrand, H.

    2012-01-01

    Dynamic bias errors occur in transmission measurements, such as X-ray, gamma, or neutron radiography or tomography. This is observed when the properties of the object are not stationary in time and its average properties are assessed. The nonlinear measurement response to changes in transmission within the time scale of the measurement implies a bias, which can be difficult to correct for. A typical example is the tomographic or radiographic mapping of void content in dynamic two-phase flow systems. In this work, the dynamic bias error is described and a method to make a first-order correction is derived. A prerequisite for this method is variance estimates of the system dynamics, which can be obtained using high-speed, time-resolved data acquisition. However, in the absence of such acquisition, a priori knowledge might be used to substitute the time resolved data. Using synthetic data, a void fraction measurement case study has been simulated to demonstrate the performance of the suggested method. The transmission length of the radiation in the object under study and the type of fluctuation of the void fraction have been varied. Significant decreases in the dynamic bias error were achieved to the expense of marginal decreases in precision.

  9. Impact of exposure measurement error in air pollution epidemiology: effect of error type in time-series studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldman, Gretchen T; Mulholland, James A; Russell, Armistead G; Strickland, Matthew J; Klein, Mitchel; Waller, Lance A; Tolbert, Paige E

    2011-06-22

    Two distinctly different types of measurement error are Berkson and classical. Impacts of measurement error in epidemiologic studies of ambient air pollution are expected to depend on error type. We characterize measurement error due to instrument imprecision and spatial variability as multiplicative (i.e. additive on the log scale) and model it over a range of error types to assess impacts on risk ratio estimates both on a per measurement unit basis and on a per interquartile range (IQR) basis in a time-series study in Atlanta. Daily measures of twelve ambient air pollutants were analyzed: NO2, NOx, O3, SO2, CO, PM10 mass, PM2.5 mass, and PM2.5 components sulfate, nitrate, ammonium, elemental carbon and organic carbon. Semivariogram analysis was applied to assess spatial variability. Error due to this spatial variability was added to a reference pollutant time-series on the log scale using Monte Carlo simulations. Each of these time-series was exponentiated and introduced to a Poisson generalized linear model of cardiovascular disease emergency department visits. Measurement error resulted in reduced statistical significance for the risk ratio estimates for all amounts (corresponding to different pollutants) and types of error. When modelled as classical-type error, risk ratios were attenuated, particularly for primary air pollutants, with average attenuation in risk ratios on a per unit of measurement basis ranging from 18% to 92% and on an IQR basis ranging from 18% to 86%. When modelled as Berkson-type error, risk ratios per unit of measurement were biased away from the null hypothesis by 2% to 31%, whereas risk ratios per IQR were attenuated (i.e. biased toward the null) by 5% to 34%. For CO modelled error amount, a range of error types were simulated and effects on risk ratio bias and significance were observed. For multiplicative error, both the amount and type of measurement error impact health effect estimates in air pollution epidemiology. By modelling

  10. Did Focusing on Asia Pacific Emerging Markets Provide Much Benefit to Portfolio Diversification during the Late 2000s Recession?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bambang Hermanto

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This research studies the international co-movement among Asia Pacific emerging markets stock price indices during the late 2000s recession by using the monthly observations start from 1st October 2001 until 1st April 2011. The co-integration analysis and parsimonious Vector Error Correction Model employed in this research reveal a long-term relationship and inter-dependencies among seven Asia Pacific emerging market stock price indices. This research finds that the unique co-integration exists on the equations. Specifically, two indices from China and Taiwan having meteor shower potential while the rest indices from Thailand, Malaysia, and Indonesia are known to have heat waves effects or country specific factors on the equation. Finally, all the results are linked to the international diversification strategies. Keywords: Co-movement, co-integration, emerging market, heat waves, meteor shower, Asia Pacific, inter-dependencies, Vector Error Correction Model, international diversification

  11. Single-Index Additive Vector Autoregressive Time Series Models

    KAUST Repository

    LI, YEHUA

    2009-09-01

    We study a new class of nonlinear autoregressive models for vector time series, where the current vector depends on single-indexes defined on the past lags and the effects of different lags have an additive form. A sufficient condition is provided for stationarity of such models. We also study estimation of the proposed model using P-splines, hypothesis testing, asymptotics, selection of the order of the autoregression and of the smoothing parameters and nonlinear forecasting. We perform simulation experiments to evaluate our model in various settings. We illustrate our methodology on a climate data set and show that our model provides more accurate yearly forecasts of the El Niño phenomenon, the unusual warming of water in the Pacific Ocean. © 2009 Board of the Foundation of the Scandinavian Journal of Statistics.

  12. Formation of an Integrated Stock Price Forecast Model in Lithuania

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Audrius Dzikevičius

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Technical and fundamental analyses are widely used to forecast stock prices due to lack of knowledge of other modern models and methods such as Residual Income Model, ANN-APGARCH, Support Vector Machine, Probabilistic Neural Network and Genetic Fuzzy Systems. Although stock price forecast models integrating both technical and fundamental analyses are currently used widely, their integration is not justified comprehensively enough. This paper discusses theoretical one-factor and multi-factor stock price forecast models already applied by investors at a global level and determines possibility to create and apply practically a stock price forecast model which integrates fundamental and technical analysis with the reference to the Lithuanian stock market. The research is aimed to determine the relationship between stock prices of the 14 Lithuanian companies listed in the Main List by the Nasdaq OMX Baltic and various fundamental variables. Based on correlation and regression analysis results and application of c-Squared Test, ANOVA method, a general stock price forecast model is generated. This paper discusses practical implications how the developed model can be used to forecast stock prices by individual investors and suggests additional check measures.

  13. Modeling coherent errors in quantum error correction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greenbaum, Daniel; Dutton, Zachary

    2018-01-01

    Analysis of quantum error correcting codes is typically done using a stochastic, Pauli channel error model for describing the noise on physical qubits. However, it was recently found that coherent errors (systematic rotations) on physical data qubits result in both physical and logical error rates that differ significantly from those predicted by a Pauli model. Here we examine the accuracy of the Pauli approximation for noise containing coherent errors (characterized by a rotation angle ɛ) under the repetition code. We derive an analytic expression for the logical error channel as a function of arbitrary code distance d and concatenation level n, in the small error limit. We find that coherent physical errors result in logical errors that are partially coherent and therefore non-Pauli. However, the coherent part of the logical error is negligible at fewer than {ε }-({dn-1)} error correction cycles when the decoder is optimized for independent Pauli errors, thus providing a regime of validity for the Pauli approximation. Above this number of correction cycles, the persistent coherent logical error will cause logical failure more quickly than the Pauli model would predict, and this may need to be combated with coherent suppression methods at the physical level or larger codes.

  14. The Impact of Macroeconomic Fundamentals on Stock Prices Revisited: Evidence from Indian Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pramod Kumar NAIK

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available The study investigates the relationships between the Indian stock market index (BSE Sensex and five macroeconomic variables, namely, industrial production index, wholesale price index, money supply, treasury bills rates and exchange rates over the period 1994:04–2011:06. Johansen’s co-integration and vector error correction model have been applied to explore the long-run equilibrium relationship between stock market index and macroeconomic variables. The analysis reveals that macroeconomic variables and the stock market index are co-integrated and, hence, a long-run equilibrium relationship exists between them. It is observed that the stock prices positively relate to the money supply and industrial production but negatively relate to inflation. The exchange rate and the short-term interest rate are found to be insignificant in determining stock prices. In the Granger causality sense, macroeconomic variable causes the stock prices in the long-run but not in the short-run. There is bidirectional causality exists between industrial production and stock prices whereas, unidirectional causality from money supply to stock price, stock price to inflation and interest rates to stock prices are found.

  15. Semiparametric modeling: Correcting low-dimensional model error in parametric models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Berry, Tyrus; Harlim, John

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, a semiparametric modeling approach is introduced as a paradigm for addressing model error arising from unresolved physical phenomena. Our approach compensates for model error by learning an auxiliary dynamical model for the unknown parameters. Practically, the proposed approach consists of the following steps. Given a physics-based model and a noisy data set of historical observations, a Bayesian filtering algorithm is used to extract a time-series of the parameter values. Subsequently, the diffusion forecast algorithm is applied to the retrieved time-series in order to construct the auxiliary model for the time evolving parameters. The semiparametric forecasting algorithm consists of integrating the existing physics-based model with an ensemble of parameters sampled from the probability density function of the diffusion forecast. To specify initial conditions for the diffusion forecast, a Bayesian semiparametric filtering method that extends the Kalman-based filtering framework is introduced. In difficult test examples, which introduce chaotically and stochastically evolving hidden parameters into the Lorenz-96 model, we show that our approach can effectively compensate for model error, with forecasting skill comparable to that of the perfect model.

  16. Optimization of Replacing Pork Meat with Yellow Worm (Tenebrio molitor L.) for Frankfurters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paik, Hyun-Dong

    2017-01-01

    The effects of replacing pork meat with yellow mealworms on the physicochemical properties and sensory characteristics of frankfurters were investigated in this study. The control (50% pork ham), T1 (45% pork ham + 5% yellow mealworm), T2 (40% pork ham + 10% yellow mealworm), T3 (35% pork ham + 15% yellow mealworm), T4 (30% pork ham + 20% yellow mealworm), T5 (25% pork ham + 25% yellow mealworm), and T6 (20% pork ham + 30% yellow mealworm) were prepared, replacing lean pork meat with yellow mealworm. The moisture content, lightness, sarcoplasmic protein solubility, hardness, gumminess, chewiness, and apparent viscosity of frankfurters with yellow mealworm were lower than those of the control (pmealworm were higher than those of the control (pmealworm concentrations (pmealworm concentrations had lower color, flavor, off-flavor, and juiciness scores. The overall acceptability was not significantly different in the control, T1, and T2 (p>0.05). Thus, the results of this study showed that replacing lean pork meat with up to 10% yellow mealworm successfully maintained the quality of frankfurters at a level similar to that of the regular control frankfurters. PMID:29147084

  17. Wavelet regression model in forecasting crude oil price

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamid, Mohd Helmie; Shabri, Ani

    2017-05-01

    This study presents the performance of wavelet multiple linear regression (WMLR) technique in daily crude oil forecasting. WMLR model was developed by integrating the discrete wavelet transform (DWT) and multiple linear regression (MLR) model. The original time series was decomposed to sub-time series with different scales by wavelet theory. Correlation analysis was conducted to assist in the selection of optimal decomposed components as inputs for the WMLR model. The daily WTI crude oil price series has been used in this study to test the prediction capability of the proposed model. The forecasting performance of WMLR model were also compared with regular multiple linear regression (MLR), Autoregressive Moving Average (ARIMA) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) using root mean square errors (RMSE) and mean absolute errors (MAE). Based on the experimental results, it appears that the WMLR model performs better than the other forecasting technique tested in this study.

  18. Quantitative Risk Assessment of Human Trichinellosis Caused by Consumption of Pork Meat Sausages in Argentina.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sequeira, G J; Zbrun, M V; Soto, L P; Astesana, D M; Blajman, J E; Rosmini, M R; Frizzo, L S; Signorini, M L

    2016-03-01

    In Argentina, there are three known species of genus Trichinella; however, Trichinella spiralis is most commonly associated with domestic pigs and it is recognized as the main cause of human trichinellosis by the consumption of products made with raw or insufficiently cooked pork meat. In some areas of Argentina, this disease is endemic and it is thus necessary to develop a more effective programme of prevention and control. Here, we developed a quantitative risk assessment of human trichinellosis following pork meat sausage consumption, which may be used to identify the stages with greater impact on the probability of acquiring the disease. The quantitative model was designed to describe the conditions in which the meat is produced, processed, transported, stored, sold and consumed in Argentina. The model predicted a risk of human trichinellosis of 4.88 × 10(-6) and an estimated annual number of trichinellosis cases of 109. The risk of human trichinellosis was sensitive to the number of Trichinella larvae that effectively survived the storage period (r = 0.89), the average probability of infection (PPinf ) (r = 0.44) and the storage time (Storage) (r = 0.08). This model allowed assessing the impact of different factors influencing the risk of acquiring trichinellosis. The model may thus help to select possible strategies to reduce the risk in the chain of by-products of pork production. © 2015 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

  19. Covariate measurement error correction methods in mediation analysis with failure time data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Shanshan; Prentice, Ross L

    2014-12-01

    Mediation analysis is important for understanding the mechanisms whereby one variable causes changes in another. Measurement error could obscure the ability of the potential mediator to explain such changes. This article focuses on developing correction methods for measurement error in the mediator with failure time outcomes. We consider a broad definition of measurement error, including technical error, and error associated with temporal variation. The underlying model with the "true" mediator is assumed to be of the Cox proportional hazards model form. The induced hazard ratio for the observed mediator no longer has a simple form independent of the baseline hazard function, due to the conditioning event. We propose a mean-variance regression calibration approach and a follow-up time regression calibration approach, to approximate the partial likelihood for the induced hazard function. Both methods demonstrate value in assessing mediation effects in simulation studies. These methods are generalized to multiple biomarkers and to both case-cohort and nested case-control sampling designs. We apply these correction methods to the Women's Health Initiative hormone therapy trials to understand the mediation effect of several serum sex hormone measures on the relationship between postmenopausal hormone therapy and breast cancer risk. © 2014, The International Biometric Society.

  20. GLOBAL TO DOMESTIC PRICE TRANSMISSION BETWEEN THE SEGMENTED CEREALS MARKETS: A STUDY OF AFGHAN RICE MARKETS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Najibullah Hassanzoy

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines cointegration and the difference in the extent of price transmission, and speed of adjustment between global and domestic prices of high and low quality rice. Unit root tests, cointegration tests and error correction models are employed in the analysis. While there are no comparable studies in the literature, the findings of this study indicate that the dynamics of price transmission may be different between high and low quality rice markets. That is, the extent of price transmission appears to be larger for the global prices of low quality rice whereas the speed of adjustment to the long-run equilibrium may be faster for domestic prices of high quality rice. Moreover, a shock in the global prices of low quality rice may have a long-lasting effect on domestic prices of low quality rice as compared to their high quality counterparts affecting domestic prices of high quality rice.

  1. Estimation of pure autoregressive vector models for revenue series ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper aims at applying multivariate approach to Box and Jenkins univariate time series modeling to three vector series. General Autoregressive Vector Models with time varying coefficients are estimated. The first vector is a response vector, while others are predictor vectors. By matrix expansion each vector, whether ...

  2. MONTHLY PRICE ANALYSIS OF COWPEA (BEANS AND MAIZE IN AKWA IBOM STATE, SOUTHERN NIGERIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sunday Brownson Akpan

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available The study examined the price transmission and market integration of Maize and Beans in the rural and urban markets of Akwa Ibom State, Nigeria. Average monthly prices (measured in naira per kilogram of Maize and Cowpea in rural and urban markets were used in the analysis. The data was obtained from the quarterly publications of the Akwa Ibom State Agricultural Development Programme (AKADEP. The data covered the period; January 2005 to June 2013. The trend analysis showed that, prices of Maize and Beans in the rural and urban markets had exponential growth rates that were less than unity, which suggested a possible co-movement of these prices in the study area. Also, the Pearson correlation coefficient generated for the pair of rural and urban prices of Maize and Beans revealed significant linear symmetric relationships. The result implies the existence of symmetric market information flows between the rural and urban markets for Maize and Beans in the state. The Granger causality test revealed bi-directional relationships between the rural and urban price of Maize and Beans in the study area. The co-integration test revealed the presence of co-integration between the rural and urban prices of Maize and Beans. The coefficients of the price variables in the co-integration equations for Maize and Beans markets converged to unity or law of one price which implied perfect market integration in the long run. The results of the error correction model (ECM also confirm the existence of the short run market integration between the rural and urban prices of Maize and Beans in the study area. In addition, it was discovered that, the rural price of Maize adjusted faster to the stable state in the long run than the urban price. Likewise, the urban price of Beans adjusted faster than its corresponding rural price. The index of market connection (IMC supported the high short run market integration for prices of Maize and Beans in rural and urban markets. Based

  3. Strategic Generation with Conjectured Transmission Price Responses in a Mixed Transmission Pricing System. Part 2. Application

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wals, A.F.; Hobbs, B.F.; Rijkers, F.A.M.

    2004-05-01

    The conjectured transmission price response model presented in the first of this two-paper series considers the expectations of oligopolistic generators regarding how demands for transmission services affect the prices of those services. Here, the model is applied to northwest Europe, simulating a mixed transmission pricing system including export fees, a path-based auction system for between-country interfaces, and implicit congestion-based pricing of internal country constraints. The path-based system does not give credit for counterflows when calculating export capability. The application shows that this no-netting policy can exacerbate the economic inefficiencies caused by oligopolistic pricing by generators. The application also illustrates the effects of different generator conjectures regarding rival supply responses and transmission prices. If generators anticipate that their increased demand for transmission services will increase transmission prices, then competitive intensity diminishes and energy prices rise. In the example here, the effect of this anticipation is to double the price increase that results from oligopolistic (Cournot) competition among generators

  4. PERFORMANCE OF ALTERNATIVE COMPONENT PRICING SYSTEMS FOR PORK

    OpenAIRE

    Brorsen, B. Wade; Akridge, Jay T.; Boland, Michael A.; Mauney, Sean; Forrest, John C.

    1998-01-01

    One method of implementing value-based marketing is a component pricing system. This research develops and evaluates alternative component pricing systems for pork. Two electronic technologies for estimating carcass components (optical probe and electromagnetic scanner) were evaluated on two sets of data representing different populations. Model accuracy increased as additional components were added.

  5. Determinants of Beef and Pork Brand Equity

    OpenAIRE

    Parcell, Joseph L.; Schroeder, Ted C.

    2003-01-01

    A set of consumer-level characteristic demand models were estimated to determine the level of brand equity for pork and beef meat cuts. Results indicate that brand premiums and discounts vary by private, national, and store brands; and brand equity varies across meat cuts carrying the same brand name. Other results are that product size discounts are linear, meat items on sale are significantly discounted to non-sale items, specialty stores typically do not garner higher prices than supermark...

  6. Effects of Partial Substitution of Lean Meat with Pork Backfat or Canola Oil on Sensory Properties of Korean Traditional Meat Patties (Tteokgalbi)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Imm, Bue-Young; Kim, Chung Hwan; Imm, Jee-Young

    2014-01-01

    Korean traditional meat patties (Tteokgalbi) were prepared by replacing part of the lean meat content with either pork backfat or canola oil and the effect of substitution on sensory quality of the meat patties was investigated. Compared to the control patties, pork-loin Tteokgalbi with 10% pork backfat or 10% canola oil had significantly higher overall acceptability and higher perceived intensity of meat flavor, sweetness, umami, and oiliness. The pork-loin patties containing 10% fat also had lower perceived firmness, toughness, and chalkiness of than the control Tteokgalbi. The chicken breast Tteokgalbi with 10% canola oil had the lowest perceived firmness and chalkiness (control > pork backfat > canola oil). No significant difference was noted in the overall acceptability of chicken breast patties with 10% pork backfat and those with 10% canola oil. These results indicate that substituting 10% of lean meat of Tteokgalbi with fat improved the sensory acceptability of the product for Korean customers regardless of the lean meat and/or fat source used in the patties. Lean meat patties formulated with a limited amount of vegetable oil such as canola oil can be a healthy option for Korean consumers by providing desirable fatty acid profiles without sacrificing sensory quality of the product. PMID:26761287

  7. Evaluation of natural antimicrobials on typical meat spoilage bacteria in vitro and in vacuum-packed pork meat.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schirmer, Bjørn Christian; Langsrud, Solveig

    2010-03-01

    The aim of this study was to investigate the inhibitory effect of natural antimicrobials on the growth of typical spoilage bacteria from marinated pork. Minimum inhibitory concentrations (MIC) of thymol, cinnamaldehyde, allyl isothiocyanate, citric acid, ascorbic acid, a rosemary extract, and a grapefruit seed extract against Lactobacillus algidus, Leuconostoc mesenteroides, Leuconostoc carnosum, Carnobacterium maltaromaticum, Carnobacterium divergens, Brochothrix thermosphacta, and Serratia proteamaculans were determined in a microplate assay. Combinations of antimicrobials were tested and several combinations showed synergistic effects in inhibiting bacterial growth. Single and combined antimicrobials were added to vacuum-packed pork meat to evaluate preserving effects. Antimicrobial concentrations of up to 10 times the MIC values showed no effect on total bacterial growth in vacuum packed pork meaning that although most antimicrobials inhibited the growth of spoilage bacteria in vitro, results from the microplate assay could not be transferred to the meat system. Most natural antimicrobials possess strong odor and flavor that limit their use as a food preservative. In conclusion, this study showed that the use of natural antimicrobials in meat products is limited and that bacterial quality and shelf life was not enhanced under the chosen conditions.

  8. 78 FR 15645 - Mandatory Country of Origin Labeling of Beef, Pork, Lamb, Chicken, Goat Meat, Wild and Farm...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-03-12

    ... Labeling of Beef, Pork, Lamb, Chicken, Goat Meat, Wild and Farm-Raised Fish and Shellfish, Perishable...), lamb, chicken, goat, and pork; ground beef, ground lamb, ground chicken, ground goat, and ground pork... The baseline for this analysis is the present state of the beef, chicken, goat, lamb and pork...

  9. Testing Constancy of the Error Covariance Matrix in Vector Models against Parametric Alternatives using a Spectral Decomposition

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Yang, Yukay

    I consider multivariate (vector) time series models in which the error covariance matrix may be time-varying. I derive a test of constancy of the error covariance matrix against the alternative that the covariance matrix changes over time. I design a new family of Lagrange-multiplier tests against...... to consider multivariate volatility modelling....

  10. Characterization of the pork market in nine municipalities in the department of Boyacá, Colombia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Diana Constanza Beltrán Hernández

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available The pork market in the department of Boyacá is subject to fluctuations and instability, exposing it to the producer in unfavorable prices, ignorance of the quality of their product and low profitability. This research establishes the characteristics of the marketing pork systems in nine municipalities, to identify the aspects that contribute to improve the structure of formal marketing and to benefit the producer, sale points and final consumer. The potential for pork supply in volume and quality was determined, it was identified the marketing channels, we identified the motivators or inhibitors of pork purchase, his position in relation to the other meats, and the market potential, according to the existing marketing channels and it was established the requirements, in terms of presentation and pork price, in points of consumption. The statistical analysis was based on an analytical synthetic method, as it is based on the decomposition of the object of study, analyzing each and every one of the actors involved in the process. It was determined that the potential of pork production is relatively low. Both for producers, points of sale and local consumption, the main motivator of consumption is the palatability and the main inhibitor is the risk of transmission of the virus H1N1. It is concluded that the pork industry in Boyacá is in an evolutionary process that requires a continuing advice in production and marketing, and promotional consumption campaigns, in addition to the standardization of prices.

  11. Analysis of pork adulteration in beef meatball using Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) spectroscopy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rohman, A; Sismindari; Erwanto, Y; Che Man, Yaakob B

    2011-05-01

    Meatball is one of the favorite foods in Indonesia. The adulteration of pork in beef meatball is frequently occurring. This study was aimed to develop a fast and non destructive technique for the detection and quantification of pork in beef meatball using Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) spectroscopy and partial least square (PLS) calibration. The spectral bands associated with pork fat (PF), beef fat (BF), and their mixtures in meatball formulation were scanned, interpreted, and identified by relating them to those spectroscopically representative to pure PF and BF. For quantitative analysis, PLS regression was used to develop a calibration model at the selected fingerprint regions of 1200-1000 cm(-1). The equation obtained for the relationship between actual PF value and FTIR predicted values in PLS calibration model was y = 0.999x + 0.004, with coefficient of determination (R(2)) and root mean square error of calibration are 0.999 and 0.442, respectively. The PLS calibration model was subsequently used for the prediction of independent samples using laboratory made meatball samples containing the mixtures of BF and PF. Using 4 principal components, root mean square error of prediction is 0.742. The results showed that FTIR spectroscopy can be used for the detection and quantification of pork in beef meatball formulation for Halal verification purposes. Copyright © 2010 The American Meat Science Association. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Dietary Brazilian red pepper essential oil on pork meat quality and lipid oxidation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Franz Dias Gois

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT: The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effects of feeding pigs with diets containing increasing levels of Brazilian red pepper essential oil ( Schinus terebinthifolius Raddi on the physical attributes, fatty acid profile and oxidative stability of precooked meat. Seventy-two weanling pigs (5.7±0.8kg were allotted in a completely randomized block design experiment with four treatments, six replicates per treatment, and three animals per experimental unit (pen. Animals were fed with a basal diet supplemented with 0, 500, 1,000, or 1,500mg kg-1 Brazilian red pepper essential oil during the 35-d experimental period. At the end of the experiment, one animal per experimental unit (16.4±2.2kg was slaughtered to sample Longissimus dorsi muscle for analysis. Dietary supplementation of Brazilian red pepper had no effect (P>0.05 on pork meat color, pH, cooking loss and shear force. Inclusion of essential oil in the diet provided a linear increase (P<0.05 of the saturated fatty acids content of L. dorsi, especially myristic (C14:0 and stearic (C18:0 fatty acids. Utilization of essential oil in pig diets reduced significantly the production of secondary lipid oxidation compounds measured as TBARS in raw pork meat (P<0.001 and immediately after cooking (P<0.001. However, during 8-d storage assay, the addition of essential oil in the diet did not protect pork meat lipids from oxidation. Therefore, Brazilian red pepper added to pig diets increased the saturated fatty acids content and reduced lipid oxidation in fresh meat and short-term heat treatment without affecting pork meat physical attributes.

  13. Comparative analyses of the chemical and sensory parameters and consumer preference of a semi-dried smoked meat product (cabanossi) produced with warthog (Phacochoerus africanus) and domestic pork meat.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Swanepoel, Monlee; Leslie, Alison J; Hoffman, Louwrens C

    2016-04-01

    The study compared the chemical and sensory characteristics and consumer preference of a semi-dried, cured meat product, cabanossi, produced with warthog meat and with domestic pork. The warthog and pork cabanossi had similar total moisture (59.0%±2.07 and 54.3%±1.26) and protein (26.3%±2.20 and 24.2%±2.15) contents, while the warthog cabanossi was lower in total fat content (6.9%±1.01) compared to pork cabanossi (13.7%±1.77, P=0.007). Descriptive sensory analysis found that the warthog cabanossi appeared darker red (P=0.001) and less fatty (P=0.001), while the pork cabanossi had a higher overall pork flavour (P=0.001). There were no differences in consumer preference of the appearance and taste between the two types of cabanossi, while the majority of consumers (91%) supported the use of game meat in meat products. The study concluded that warthog meat can be used in processed products without compromising the associated technical or organoleptic properties. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. The effects of agricultural trade openness on food price transmission in Latin American countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Insa Flachsbarth

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Trade of agricultural commodities has grown significantly in most Latin American countries (LAC over the last two decades. However, after the international food price surges in 2006-08 and 2011-12 concerns about food access of the poor arose. Within a panel framework containing six LAC (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Peru, we used a single equation error correction model to identify possible cointegrating relationships between the food consumer price index (CPI and a set of trade related and domestic variables. The main focus of the study was to examine how different levels of trade openness impact international food price transmission to domestic markets. Our results confirm that deeper market integration increases global price transmission elasticities. In other words, more agricultural trade openness proves to elevate food CPIs during global price spikes. Thus, for poor consumers world price shocks can be deteriorating in the short-run and domestic food prices will slowly converge to a higher long-run equilibrium. Especially in increasingly integrated economies, effective policies to buffer food price shocks should be put in place, but must be carefully planned with the required budget readily available. We also found that exchange rate appreciations can buffer price shocks to a certain extent and that monetary policies seem to be an appropriate means for stabilizing food prices to safeguard food access of the poor population.

  15. Assessing the use of frozen pork meat in the manufacture of cooked ham

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francine Gomes Basso LOS

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This study aimed to evaluate the effects of slow (–18 °C and fast freezing (liquid nitrogen of pork meat, and the use of exudate released upon thawing, on the physicochemical, color, rheological, microbiological, histological, and sensory characteristics of cooked ham. The meat samples were frozen at –18 °C and thawed after 22 weeks for the production of cooked ham. No significant difference was observed regarding physicochemical, color and microbiological parameters or in sensory acceptance. The hardness and chewiness parameters showed significant differences when compared to the control sample (ham made from chilled meat. Light microscopy of cooked ham samples showed that changes in the tissues were caused by freezing and thawing the meat. The effect of exudate was significant on the sodium content and compression force parameters, but this difference was not perceived in the sensory analysis, confirming that frozen pork meat can be used to produce cooked ham without loss of quality.

  16. Effects of Edible Films Containing Procyanidin on the Preservation of Pork Meat during Chilled Storage.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Hyoun Wook; Jeong, Jin Young; Seol, Kuk-Hwan; Seong, Pil-Nam; Ham, Jun-Sang

    2016-01-01

    Procyanidins, which are natural antioxidants and antimicrobials found in grapes, enhance the quality and extend the shelf life of meat. We explored the effects of edible films incorporating procyanidins on pork loin stored for various times. Procyanidins (0, 0.1, and 0.3%, w/w) were incorporated into the edible films. We assessed meat color, pH, levels of volatile basic nitrogen (VBN) and 2-thiobarbituric acid-reactive substances (TBARS), and microbial populations for 14 d. The chromaticities and pH values of pork loin wrapped in film containing procyanidins (0.1% and 0.3%) generally increased (p<0.05) with storage time. VBN and TBARS levels, and total bacterial and Escherichia coli (E. coli) counts, significantly decreased (p<0.05) in the procyanidin groups. In particular, procyanidins strongly inhibited TBARS formation. Thus, our findings suggest that edible film impregnated with procyanidins inhibits lipid oxidation and microbial growth, thereby enhancing the quality and shelf life of pork meat.

  17. Secure and Reliable IPTV Multimedia Transmission Using Forward Error Correction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chi-Huang Shih

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available With the wide deployment of Internet Protocol (IP infrastructure and rapid development of digital technologies, Internet Protocol Television (IPTV has emerged as one of the major multimedia access techniques. A general IPTV transmission system employs both encryption and forward error correction (FEC to provide the authorized subscriber with a high-quality perceptual experience. This two-layer processing, however, complicates the system design in terms of computational cost and management cost. In this paper, we propose a novel FEC scheme to ensure the secure and reliable transmission for IPTV multimedia content and services. The proposed secure FEC utilizes the characteristics of FEC including the FEC-encoded redundancies and the limitation of error correction capacity to protect the multimedia packets against the malicious attacks and data transmission errors/losses. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed scheme obtains similar performance compared with the joint encryption and FEC scheme.

  18. Strategic Generation with Conjectured Transmission Price Responses in a Mixed Transmission Pricing System. Part 1. Formulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hobbs, B.F.; Rijkers, F.A.M.

    2004-05-01

    The conjectured supply function (CSF) model calculates an oligopolistic equilibrium among competing generating companies (GenCos), presuming that GenCos anticipate that rival firms will react to price increases by expanding their sales at an assumed rate. The CSF model is generalized here to include each generator's conjectures concerning how the price of transmission services (point-to-point service and constrained interfaces) will be affected by the amount of those services that the generator demands. This generalization reflects the market reality that large producers will anticipate that they can favorably affect transmission prices by their actions. The model simulates oligopolistic competition among generators while simultaneously representing a mixed transmission pricing system. This mixed system includes fixed transmission tariffs, congestion-based pricing of physical transmission constraints (represented as a linearized dc load flow), and auctions of interface capacity in a path-based pricing system. Pricing inefficiencies, such as export fees and no credit for counterflows, can be simulated. The model is formulated as a linear mixed complementarity problem, which enables very large market models to be solved. In the second paper of this two-paper series, the capabilities of the model are illustrated with an application to northwest Europe, where transmission pricing is based on such a mixture of approaches

  19. Bias-correction in vector autoregressive models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Engsted, Tom; Pedersen, Thomas Quistgaard

    2014-01-01

    We analyze the properties of various methods for bias-correcting parameter estimates in both stationary and non-stationary vector autoregressive models. First, we show that two analytical bias formulas from the existing literature are in fact identical. Next, based on a detailed simulation study......, we show that when the model is stationary this simple bias formula compares very favorably to bootstrap bias-correction, both in terms of bias and mean squared error. In non-stationary models, the analytical bias formula performs noticeably worse than bootstrapping. Both methods yield a notable...... improvement over ordinary least squares. We pay special attention to the risk of pushing an otherwise stationary model into the non-stationary region of the parameter space when correcting for bias. Finally, we consider a recently proposed reduced-bias weighted least squares estimator, and we find...

  20. Food price trend analysis: Lessons for strengthening food security ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The Vector Error correction model was used. Markets were categorised into leading ... This trend implies presence of many layers of markets and the prices were largely controlled by fewer traders rather than marketing forces or other actors like farmers who were down to the value chain. This kind of monopoly leads to price ...

  1. The analysis of macro-environment for the pork meat industry from Romania

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Genoveva Buzamat

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract For the realization of this study we used PESTEc analysis of the external environment (politico-legal, economic, social and technological in order to highlight the opportunities which can lead to a higher efficiency of the economic activity or the threats represented by the potential impediments which could prevent the development of the economic activity of the studied company. The study was realized on a company which has as activity the raising of porcine, but due to confidentiality reasons we will not divulge its name. Keywords :industry, macro-environment,  meat, pork

  2. Stock price forecasting based on time series analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chi, Wan Le

    2018-05-01

    Using the historical stock price data to set up a sequence model to explain the intrinsic relationship of data, the future stock price can forecasted. The used models are auto-regressive model, moving-average model and autoregressive-movingaverage model. The original data sequence of unit root test was used to judge whether the original data sequence was stationary. The non-stationary original sequence as a first order difference needed further processing. Then the stability of the sequence difference was re-inspected. If it is still non-stationary, the second order differential processing of the sequence is carried out. Autocorrelation diagram and partial correlation diagram were used to evaluate the parameters of the identified ARMA model, including coefficients of the model and model order. Finally, the model was used to forecast the fitting of the shanghai composite index daily closing price with precision. Results showed that the non-stationary original data series was stationary after the second order difference. The forecast value of shanghai composite index daily closing price was closer to actual value, indicating that the ARMA model in the paper was a certain accuracy.

  3. PENDEKATAN ERROR CORRECTION MODEL SEBAGAI PENENTU HARGA SAHAM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Kaluge

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available This research was to find the effect of profitability, rate of interest, GDP, and foreign exchange rate on stockprices. Approach used was error correction model. Profitability was indicated by variables EPS, and ROIwhile the SBI (1 month was used for representing interest rate. This research found that all variablessimultaneously affected the stock prices significantly. Partially, EPS, PER, and Foreign Exchange rate significantlyaffected the prices both in short run and long run. Interestingly that SBI and GDP did not affect theprices at all. The variable of ROI had only long run impact on the prices.

  4. Oil price and food price volatility dynamics: The case of Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ijeoma C. Nwoko

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available This study examines the long and short run relationships between oil price and food price volatility as well as the causal link between them. The study used annual food price volatility index from FAO from 2000 to 2013 and crude oil price from U.S. Energy Information and Administration (EIA from 2000 to 2013. The Johansen and Jesulius co-integration test revealed that there is a long run relationship between oil price and domestic food price volatility. The vector error correction model indicated a positive and significant short run relationship between oil price and food price volatility. The Granger causality test revealed a unidirectional causality with causality running from oil price to food price volatility but not vice versa. It is recommended that policies and interventions that will help reduce uncertainty about food prices such as improved market information, trade policies and investment in research and development among others should be encouraged. Also to reduce the effect of oil price shock, it is recommended that government should subsidise pump price of refined oil, seek alternative sources of energy and there should be less dependence on oil for fertilizer production.

  5. Space-time modeling of timber prices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mo Zhou; Joseph Buongriorno

    2006-01-01

    A space-time econometric model was developed for pine sawtimber timber prices of 21 geographically contiguous regions in the southern United States. The correlations between prices in neighboring regions helped predict future prices. The impulse response analysis showed that although southern pine sawtimber markets were not globally integrated, local supply and demand...

  6. Animal health and price transmission along livestock supply chains.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aragrande, M; Canali, M

    2017-04-01

    Animal health diseases can severely affect the food supply chain by causing variations in prices and market demand. Price transmission analysis reveals in what ways price variations are transmitted along the supply chain, and how supply chains of substitute products and different regional markets are also affected. In perfect markets, a price variation would be completely and instantaneously transmitted across the different levels of the supply chain: producers, the processing industry, retailers and consumers. However, empirical studies show that food markets are often imperfect, with anomalies or asymmetries in price transmission and distortions in the distribution of market benefits. This means, for instance, that a price increase at the consumer level may not be transmitted from retailers to processors and producers; yet, on the other hand, price falls may rapidly affect the upstream supply chain. Market concentration and the consequent exertion of market power in key segments of the supply chain can explain price transmission asymmetries and their distributional effects, but other factors may also be involved, such as transaction costs, scale economies, and imperfect information. During the bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) crisis, asymmetric price transmission in the beef supply chain and related meat markets determined distributional effects among sectors. After the spread of the BSE food scare, the fall in demand marginally affected the price paid to retailers, but producers and wholesalers suffered much more, in both price reductions and the time needed to recover to precrisis demand. Price transmission analysis investigates how animal health crises create different economic burdens for various types of stakeholder, and provides useful socioeconomic insights when used with other tools.

  7. Modeling Philippine Stock Exchange Composite Index Using Time Series Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gayo, W. S.; Urrutia, J. D.; Temple, J. M. F.; Sandoval, J. R. D.; Sanglay, J. E. A.

    2015-06-01

    This study was conducted to develop a time series model of the Philippine Stock Exchange Composite Index and its volatility using the finite mixture of ARIMA model with conditional variance equations such as ARCH, GARCH, EG ARCH, TARCH and PARCH models. Also, the study aimed to find out the reason behind the behaviorof PSEi, that is, which of the economic variables - Consumer Price Index, crude oil price, foreign exchange rate, gold price, interest rate, money supply, price-earnings ratio, Producers’ Price Index and terms of trade - can be used in projecting future values of PSEi and this was examined using Granger Causality Test. The findings showed that the best time series model for Philippine Stock Exchange Composite index is ARIMA(1,1,5) - ARCH(1). Also, Consumer Price Index, crude oil price and foreign exchange rate are factors concluded to Granger cause Philippine Stock Exchange Composite Index.

  8. An Empirical Analysis of the Price Discovery Function of Shanghai Fuel Oil Futures Market

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Wang Zhen; Liu Zhenhai; Chen Chao

    2007-01-01

    This paper analyzes the role of price discovery of Shanghai fuel oil futures market by using methods, such as unit root test, co-integration test, error correction model, Granger causality test, impulse-response function and variance decomposition. The results showed that there exists a strong relationship between the spot price of Huangpu fuel oil spot market and the futures price of Shanghai fuel oil futures market. In addition, the Shanghai fuel oil futures market exhibits a highly effective price discovery function.

  9. Fiscal Deficits and Stock Prices in India: Empirical Evidence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pooja Joshi

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available The study aims at examining how fiscal deficits affect the performance of the stock market in India by using annual data from 1988–2012. The study makes use of Ng-Perron unit root tests to check the non-stationarity property of the series; the Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL bounds test and a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM for testing both short and long run dynamic relationships. The variance decomposition (VDC is used to predict the exogenous shocks of the variables. The findings of the bounds test reveal that the estimated equation and the series are co-integrated. The ARDL results suggest a long run negative relationship exists between budget deficit and stock prices and do not show any significant relationship in the short run. The VECM result shows that fiscal deficits influence the stock price only in the short run. The results of the Variance Decomposition show that stock price movement in the long run is mostly explained by shocks of fiscal deficits. The study implies that the government must adopt appropriate macroeconomic policies to reduce budget deficit, which will result in stock market growth and in turn will lead to the financial development of the country.

  10. Price and income elasticities of crude oil import demand in South Africa. A cointegration analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ziramba, Emmanuel [Department of Economics, University of South Africa, P.O Box 392, Unisa 0003 (South Africa)

    2010-12-15

    This paper examines the demand for imported crude oil in South Africa as a function of real income and the price of crude oil over the period 1980-2006. We carried out the Johansen co integration multivariate analysis to determine the long-run income and price elasticities. A unique long-run cointegration relationship exists between crude oil imports and the explanatory variables. The short-run dynamics are estimated by specifying a general error correction model. The estimated long-run price and income elasticities of -0.147 and 0.429 suggest that import demand for crude oil is price and income inelastic. There is also evidence of unidirectional long-run causality running from real GDP to crude oil imports. (author)

  11. Development of radicidation process for eradicating Salmonella and Staphylococcus from pork meat products

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alur, M.D.; Kamat, A.S.; Doke, S.N.; Nair, P.M.

    1998-01-01

    Processed meat products including pork salami, luncheon meat, ham and cocktail sausages maintained at sub-zero temperatures in retail cold storage were found to possess counts of mesophilic aerobes, Staphylococcus and Salmonella counts in the ranges of 10 6 - 10 7 and 10 4 - 10 5 and 10 - 100 cfu/g, respectively. When these processed meat products were subjected to a gamma radiation dose of 2.5 kGy, under cryogenic condition, counts of mesophilic aerobes and Staphylococcus of the samples were reduced by 3-4 log cycles. At the same time, products were completely free from Salmonella. Inoculated pack studies indicated that gamma radiation dose of 4 kGy would suffice to eliminate Salmonella completely even in the case of samples, which were artificially inoculated with a heavy initial inoculum of 10 6 cfu/g. A trained taste panel gave high organoleptic ratings, the radicidized meat products in terms of odour, colour and texture, establishing 4 kGy as an optimum radicidation dose for frozen pork meat products. (author)

  12. A median filter approach for correcting errors in a vector field

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schultz, H.

    1985-01-01

    Techniques are presented for detecting and correcting errors in a vector field. These methods employ median filters which are frequently used in image processing to enhance edges and remove noise. A detailed example is given for wind field maps produced by a spaceborne scatterometer. The error detection and replacement algorithm was tested with simulation data from the NASA Scatterometer (NSCAT) project.

  13. Authenticity control of game meat products--a single method to detect and quantify adulteration of fallow deer (Dama dama), red deer (Cervus elaphus) and sika deer (Cervus nippon) by real-time PCR.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Druml, Barbara; Grandits, Stephanie; Mayer, Walter; Hochegger, Rupert; Cichna-Markl, Margit

    2015-03-01

    This contribution presents a single real-time PCR assay allowing the determination of the deer content (the sum of fallow deer (Dama dama), red deer (Cervus elaphus) and sika deer (Cervus nippon)) in meat products to detect food adulteration. The PCR assay does not show cross-reactivity with 20 animal species and 43 botanical species potentially contained in game meat products. The limit of quantification is 0.5% for fallow deer and red deer and 0.1% for sika deer. The deer content in meat products is determined by relating the concentration obtained with the deer PCR assay to that obtained with a reference system which amplifies mammals and poultry DNA. The analysis of binary meat mixtures with pork, a meat mixture containing equal amounts of fallow deer, red deer and sika deer in pork and a model game sausage showed that the quantification approach is very accurate (systematic error generally <25%). Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Marketing possibilities of new pork qualities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bredahl, Lone; Scholderer, Joachim

    2004-01-01

    -range and organic pork, and point to an assimilation effect when the objective quality of such meats differs only slightly from that of conventional pork. For successful marketing of pork from extensive production systems, continuous improvements in eating quality, moderate pricing, and a credible certification......The paper presents results of three studies conducted by the SUSPORKQUAL consumer research team to investigate consumers' quality perception and willingness to pay with regard to pork from conventional and extensive production systems. Results show that consumers expect superior quality from free...

  15. Modeling Financial Time Series Based on a Market Microstructure Model with Leverage Effect

    OpenAIRE

    Yanhui Xi; Hui Peng; Yemei Qin

    2016-01-01

    The basic market microstructure model specifies that the price/return innovation and the volatility innovation are independent Gaussian white noise processes. However, the financial leverage effect has been found to be statistically significant in many financial time series. In this paper, a novel market microstructure model with leverage effects is proposed. The model specification assumed a negative correlation in the errors between the price/return innovation and the volatility innovation....

  16. Fuzzy time-series based on Fibonacci sequence for stock price forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Tai-Liang; Cheng, Ching-Hsue; Jong Teoh, Hia

    2007-07-01

    Time-series models have been utilized to make reasonably accurate predictions in the areas of stock price movements, academic enrollments, weather, etc. For promoting the forecasting performance of fuzzy time-series models, this paper proposes a new model, which incorporates the concept of the Fibonacci sequence, the framework of Song and Chissom's model and the weighted method of Yu's model. This paper employs a 5-year period TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company) stock price data and a 13-year period of TAIEX (Taiwan Stock Exchange Capitalization Weighted Stock Index) stock index data as experimental datasets. By comparing our forecasting performances with Chen's (Forecasting enrollments based on fuzzy time-series. Fuzzy Sets Syst. 81 (1996) 311-319), Yu's (Weighted fuzzy time-series models for TAIEX forecasting. Physica A 349 (2004) 609-624) and Huarng's (The application of neural networks to forecast fuzzy time series. Physica A 336 (2006) 481-491) models, we conclude that the proposed model surpasses in accuracy these conventional fuzzy time-series models.

  17. Developing a local least-squares support vector machines-based neuro-fuzzy model for nonlinear and chaotic time series prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miranian, A; Abdollahzade, M

    2013-02-01

    Local modeling approaches, owing to their ability to model different operating regimes of nonlinear systems and processes by independent local models, seem appealing for modeling, identification, and prediction applications. In this paper, we propose a local neuro-fuzzy (LNF) approach based on the least-squares support vector machines (LSSVMs). The proposed LNF approach employs LSSVMs, which are powerful in modeling and predicting time series, as local models and uses hierarchical binary tree (HBT) learning algorithm for fast and efficient estimation of its parameters. The HBT algorithm heuristically partitions the input space into smaller subdomains by axis-orthogonal splits. In each partitioning, the validity functions automatically form a unity partition and therefore normalization side effects, e.g., reactivation, are prevented. Integration of LSSVMs into the LNF network as local models, along with the HBT learning algorithm, yield a high-performance approach for modeling and prediction of complex nonlinear time series. The proposed approach is applied to modeling and predictions of different nonlinear and chaotic real-world and hand-designed systems and time series. Analysis of the prediction results and comparisons with recent and old studies demonstrate the promising performance of the proposed LNF approach with the HBT learning algorithm for modeling and prediction of nonlinear and chaotic systems and time series.

  18. Models for Pooled Time-Series Cross-Section Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lawrence E Raffalovich

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Several models are available for the analysis of pooled time-series cross-section (TSCS data, defined as “repeated observations on fixed units” (Beck and Katz 1995. In this paper, we run the following models: (1 a completely pooled model, (2 fixed effects models, and (3 multi-level/hierarchical linear models. To illustrate these models, we use a Generalized Least Squares (GLS estimator with cross-section weights and panel-corrected standard errors (with EViews 8 on the cross-national homicide trends data of forty countries from 1950 to 2005, which we source from published research (Messner et al. 2011. We describe and discuss the similarities and differences between the models, and what information each can contribute to help answer substantive research questions. We conclude with a discussion of how the models we present may help to mitigate validity threats inherent in pooled time-series cross-section data analysis.

  19. Determinants of Rotavirus Transmission: A Lag Nonlinear Time Series Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Gaalen, Rolina D; van de Kassteele, Jan; Hahné, Susan J M; Bruijning-Verhagen, Patricia; Wallinga, Jacco

    2017-07-01

    Rotavirus is a common viral infection among young children. As in many countries, the infection dynamics of rotavirus in the Netherlands are characterized by an annual winter peak, which was notably low in 2014. Previous study suggested an association between weather factors and both rotavirus transmission and incidence. From epidemic theory, we know that the proportion of susceptible individuals can affect disease transmission. We investigated how these factors are associated with rotavirus transmission in the Netherlands, and their impact on rotavirus transmission in 2014. We used available data on birth rates and rotavirus laboratory reports to estimate rotavirus transmission and the proportion of individuals susceptible to primary infection. Weather data were directly available from a central meteorological station. We developed an approach for detecting determinants of seasonal rotavirus transmission by assessing nonlinear, delayed associations between each factor and rotavirus transmission. We explored relationships by applying a distributed lag nonlinear regression model with seasonal terms. We corrected for residual serial correlation using autoregressive moving average errors. We inferred the relationship between different factors and the effective reproduction number from the most parsimonious model with low residual autocorrelation. Higher proportions of susceptible individuals and lower temperatures were associated with increases in rotavirus transmission. For 2014, our findings suggest that relatively mild temperatures combined with the low proportion of susceptible individuals contributed to lower rotavirus transmission in the Netherlands. However, our model, which overestimated the magnitude of the peak, suggested that other factors were likely instrumental in reducing the incidence that year.

  20. A Sandwich-Type Standard Error Estimator of SEM Models with Multivariate Time Series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Guangjian; Chow, Sy-Miin; Ong, Anthony D.

    2011-01-01

    Structural equation models are increasingly used as a modeling tool for multivariate time series data in the social and behavioral sciences. Standard error estimators of SEM models, originally developed for independent data, require modifications to accommodate the fact that time series data are inherently dependent. In this article, we extend a…

  1. Influence of Duroc breed inclusion into Polish Landrace maternal line on pork meat quality traits

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    DOMINIKA GUZEK

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Crossbreeding with Duroc breed allows to improve meat quality, but no data is available regarding specific influence of Duroc breed on characteristics of meat in the case of crossbreeding with various breeds. The aim of the present research was to evaluate the effect of crossbreeding Polish Landrace dames with Duroc sires on quality features of meat in reference to Polish Landrace breed. The objects of the study were Longissimus dorsi lumborum pork muscles obtained from Polish Landrace breed and Polish Landrace x Duroc crossbreed animals. Sarcomere length measurements were conducted using microscopic method and basic chemical composition measurement was analyzed using spectrophotometric scanning. Texture analysis of meat samples, performed after thermal treatment was expressed by Warner-Bratzler shear force and color analysis was obtained using CIE L*a*b* color system. No differences in sarcomere length, shear force as well as components of color values between pork meat originated from Polish Landrace breed and Polish Landrace x Duroc crossbreed were observed. Analysis of basic chemical composition revealed higher fat and lower ash contents in the case of meat of Polish Landrace breed animals. It was concluded that the actual impact of breed on meat characteristics is possibly altered by other factors. It may be suggested that influence of basic chemical composition on color of meat is breed-related.

  2. Influence of Duroc breed inclusion into Polish Landrace maternal line on pork meat quality traits.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guzek, Dominika; Głąbska, Dominika; Głąbski, Krzysztof; Wierzbicka, Agnieszka

    2016-05-31

    Crossbreeding with Duroc breed allows to improve meat quality, but no data is available regarding specific influence of Duroc breed on characteristics of meat in the case of crossbreeding with various breeds. The aim of the present research was to evaluate the effect of crossbreeding Polish Landrace dames with Duroc sires on quality features of meat in reference to Polish Landrace breed. The objects of the study were Longissimus dorsi lumborum pork muscles obtained from Polish Landrace breed and Polish Landrace x Duroc crossbreed animals. Sarcomere length measurements were conducted using microscopic method and basic chemical composition measurement was analyzed using spectrophotometric scanning. Texture analysis of meat samples, performed after thermal treatment was expressed by Warner-Bratzler shear force and color analysis was obtained using CIE L*a*b* color system. No differences in sarcomere length, shear force as well as components of color values between pork meat originated from Polish Landrace breed and Polish Landrace x Duroc crossbreed were observed. Analysis of basic chemical composition revealed higher fat and lower ash contents in the case of meat of Polish Landrace breed animals. It was concluded that the actual impact of breed on meat characteristics is possibly altered by other factors. It may be suggested that influence of basic chemical composition on color of meat is breed-related.

  3. Financing Human Development for Sectorial Growth: A Time Series Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shobande Abdul Olatunji

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The role which financing human development plays in fostering the sectorial growth of an economy cannot be undermined. It is a key instrument which can be utilized to alleviate poverty, create employment and ensure the sustenance of economic growth and development. Thus financing human development for sectorial growth has taken the center stage of economic growth and development strategies in most countries. In a constructive effort to examine the in-depth relationship between the variables in the Nigerian space, this paper provides evidence on the impact of financing human development and sectorial growth in Nigeria between 1982 and 2016, using the Johansen co-integration techniques to test for co-integration among the variables and the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM to ascertain the speed of adjustment of the variables to their long run equilibrium position. The analysis shows that a long and short run relationship exists between financing human capital development and sectorial growth during the period reviewed. Therefore, the paper argues that for an active foundation for sustainable sectorial growth and development, financing human capital development across each unit is urgently required through increased budgetary allocation for both health and educational sectors since they are key components of human capital development in a nation.

  4. A prediction method based on wavelet transform and multiple models fusion for chaotic time series

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhongda, Tian; Shujiang, Li; Yanhong, Wang; Yi, Sha

    2017-01-01

    In order to improve the prediction accuracy of chaotic time series, a prediction method based on wavelet transform and multiple models fusion is proposed. The chaotic time series is decomposed and reconstructed by wavelet transform, and approximate components and detail components are obtained. According to different characteristics of each component, least squares support vector machine (LSSVM) is used as predictive model for approximation components. At the same time, an improved free search algorithm is utilized for predictive model parameters optimization. Auto regressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA) is used as predictive model for detail components. The multiple prediction model predictive values are fusion by Gauss–Markov algorithm, the error variance of predicted results after fusion is less than the single model, the prediction accuracy is improved. The simulation results are compared through two typical chaotic time series include Lorenz time series and Mackey–Glass time series. The simulation results show that the prediction method in this paper has a better prediction.

  5. Discrimination of in vitro and in vivo digestion products of meat proteins from pork, beef, chicken, and fish.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wen, Siying; Zhou, Guanghong; Song, Shangxin; Xu, Xinglian; Voglmeir, Josef; Liu, Li; Zhao, Fan; Li, Mengjie; Li, Li; Yu, Xiaobo; Bai, Yun; Li, Chunbao

    2015-11-01

    In vitro digestion products of proteins were compared among beef, pork, chicken, and fish. Gastric and jejunal contents from the rats fed these meat proteins were also compared. Cooked pork, beef, chicken, and fish were homogenized and incubated with pepsin alone or followed by trypsin. The digestion products with molecular weights of less than 3000 Da were identified with MALDI-TOF-MS and nano-LC-MS/MS. Gastric and jejunal contents obtained from the rats fed the four meat proteins for 7 days were also analyzed. After pepsin digestion, pork, and beef samples had a greater number of fragments in similarity than chicken and fish samples, but the in vitro digestibility was the greatest (p 0.05). A total of 822 and 659 peptides were identified from the in vitro and in vivo digestion products, respectively. Our results could interpret for the differences in physiological functions after the ingestion of different species of meat. © 2015 The Authors. PROTEOMICS Published by Wiley-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

  6. Considerations for analysis of time-to-event outcomes measured with error: Bias and correction with SIMEX.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oh, Eric J; Shepherd, Bryan E; Lumley, Thomas; Shaw, Pamela A

    2018-04-15

    For time-to-event outcomes, a rich literature exists on the bias introduced by covariate measurement error in regression models, such as the Cox model, and methods of analysis to address this bias. By comparison, less attention has been given to understanding the impact or addressing errors in the failure time outcome. For many diseases, the timing of an event of interest (such as progression-free survival or time to AIDS progression) can be difficult to assess or reliant on self-report and therefore prone to measurement error. For linear models, it is well known that random errors in the outcome variable do not bias regression estimates. With nonlinear models, however, even random error or misclassification can introduce bias into estimated parameters. We compare the performance of 2 common regression models, the Cox and Weibull models, in the setting of measurement error in the failure time outcome. We introduce an extension of the SIMEX method to correct for bias in hazard ratio estimates from the Cox model and discuss other analysis options to address measurement error in the response. A formula to estimate the bias induced into the hazard ratio by classical measurement error in the event time for a log-linear survival model is presented. Detailed numerical studies are presented to examine the performance of the proposed SIMEX method under varying levels and parametric forms of the error in the outcome. We further illustrate the method with observational data on HIV outcomes from the Vanderbilt Comprehensive Care Clinic. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  7. Distance error correction for time-of-flight cameras

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuersattel, Peter; Schaller, Christian; Maier, Andreas; Riess, Christian

    2017-06-01

    The measurement accuracy of time-of-flight cameras is limited due to properties of the scene and systematic errors. These errors can accumulate to multiple centimeters which may limit the applicability of these range sensors. In the past, different approaches have been proposed for improving the accuracy of these cameras. In this work, we propose a new method that improves two important aspects of the range calibration. First, we propose a new checkerboard which is augmented by a gray-level gradient. With this addition it becomes possible to capture the calibration features for intrinsic and distance calibration at the same time. The gradient strip allows to acquire a large amount of distance measurements for different surface reflectivities, which results in more meaningful training data. Second, we present multiple new features which are used as input to a random forest regressor. By using random regression forests, we circumvent the problem of finding an accurate model for the measurement error. During application, a correction value for each individual pixel is estimated with the trained forest based on a specifically tailored feature vector. With our approach the measurement error can be reduced by more than 40% for the Mesa SR4000 and by more than 30% for the Microsoft Kinect V2. In our evaluation we also investigate the impact of the individual forest parameters and illustrate the importance of the individual features.

  8. The Influence of Stunning Method, Refrigeration and Freezing Time on the Rheological and Textural Properties of Raw Meat

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liliana Tudoreanu

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available The present research was conducted to provide information on the influence of stunning methods in conjunction with refrigeration and freezing time on the textural and rheological properties of raw meat. Pork raw meat, commercially available, was analyzed for textural properties such as hardness, cohesiveness, adhesiveness and fracture force. Sample were analyzed fresh, after 3 days of refrigeration, and 15 days, 30days and 60 days freezing time in commercially available refrigerators mimicking the storing conditions used by consumers. For pork raw meat, hardness increased sharply after 3 days of refrigeration and showed no significant differences after 15days of freezing compared to 3days refrigeration time. After 30 days of freezing the raw pork meat samples’ hardness decreased significantly compared to the hardness of the samples freeze for15 days. Hardness of gas stunning raw pork meat samples compared to electrical stunning raw pork meat samples was 2.57 times higher indicating a better firmness of the gas stunning raw pork meat. The cohesiveness of the raw pork meat from gas stunned animals maintained its levels after 60 days of freezing while the meat from electrically stunned animals showed significant modificatio

  9. Generic global regression models for growth prediction of Salmonella in ground pork and pork cuts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Buschhardt, Tasja; Hansen, Tina Beck; Bahl, Martin Iain

    2017-01-01

    Introduction and Objectives Models for the prediction of bacterial growth in fresh pork are primarily developed using two-step regression (i.e. primary models followed by secondary models). These models are also generally based on experiments in liquids or ground meat and neglect surface growth....... It has been shown that one-step global regressions can result in more accurate models and that bacterial growth on intact surfaces can substantially differ from growth in liquid culture. Material and Methods We used a global-regression approach to develop predictive models for the growth of Salmonella....... One part of obtained logtransformed cell counts was used for model development and another for model validation. The Ratkowsky square root model and the relative lag time (RLT) model were integrated into the logistic model with delay. Fitted parameter estimates were compared to investigate the effect...

  10. International red meat trade.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brester, Gary W; Marsh, John M; Plain, Ronald L

    2003-07-01

    The maturation of the US beef and pork markets and increasing consumer demands for convenience, safety, and nutrition suggests that the beef and pork industries must focus on product development and promotion. New marketing arrangements are developing that help coordinate production with consumer demands. The relative high levels of incomes in the United States are likely to increase the demands for branded products rather than increase total per capita consumption. Foreign markets represent the greatest opportunity for increased demand for commodity beef and pork products. Increasing incomes in developing countries will likely allow consumers to increase consumption of animal-source proteins. Real prices of beef and pork have declined substantially because of sagging domestic demand and increasing farm-level production technologies. Increasing US beef and pork exports have obviated some of the price declines. Pork attained a net export position from a quantity perspective in 1995. The United States continues to be a net importer of beef on a quantity basis but is close to becoming a net exporter in terms of value. By-products continue to play a critical role in determining the red meat trade balance and producer prices. The United States, however, must continue to become cost, price, and quality competitive with other suppliers and must secure additional market access if it is to sustain recent trade trends. Several trade tensions remain in the red meat industry. For example, mandated COOL will undoubtedly have domestic and international effects on the beef and pork sectors. Domestically, uncertainty regarding consumer demand responses or quality perceptions regarding product origin, as well as added processor-retailer costs will be nontrivial. How these factors balance out in terms of benefits versus costs to the industry is uncertain. From an international perspective, some beef and pork export suppliers to the United States could view required labeling as a

  11. Thermal-Induced Errors Prediction and Compensation for a Coordinate Boring Machine Based on Time Series Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jun Yang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available To improve the CNC machine tools precision, a thermal error modeling for the motorized spindle was proposed based on time series analysis, considering the length of cutting tools and thermal declined angles, and the real-time error compensation was implemented. A five-point method was applied to measure radial thermal declinations and axial expansion of the spindle with eddy current sensors, solving the problem that the three-point measurement cannot obtain the radial thermal angle errors. Then the stationarity of the thermal error sequences was determined by the Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Algorithm, and the autocorrelation/partial autocorrelation function was applied to identify the model pattern. By combining both Yule-Walker equations and information criteria, the order and parameters of the models were solved effectively, which improved the prediction accuracy and generalization ability. The results indicated that the prediction accuracy of the time series model could reach up to 90%. In addition, the axial maximum error decreased from 39.6 μm to 7 μm after error compensation, and the machining accuracy was improved by 89.7%. Moreover, the X/Y-direction accuracy can reach up to 77.4% and 86%, respectively, which demonstrated that the proposed methods of measurement, modeling, and compensation were effective.

  12. Two galactose-α-1,3-galactose carrying peptidases from pork kidney mediate anaphylactogenic responses in delayed meat allergy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hilger, Christiane; Fischer, Jörg; Swiontek, Kyra

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Serum IgE-antibodies directed at galactose-α-1,3-galactose (α-Gal) are associated with a novel form of delayed anaphylaxis occuring upon consumption of red meat or innards. Pork kidney is known as the most potent trigger of this syndrome, but the culprit allergens have not yet been...... resistent to heat denaturation. Pork kidney extract, isolated ACE I and AP-N were able to activate patient basophils and elicit positive responses in skin prick tests. CONCLUSION: Two cell-membrane proteins carrying α-Gal epitopes were identified in pork kidney. For the first time, isolated meat proteins...... were shown to induce basophil activation in patients with delayed anaphylaxis to red meat providing further confirmation for the clinical relevance of these α-Gal-carrying proteins. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved....

  13. IDENTIFYING BANK LENDING CHANNEL IN INDONESIA: A VECTOR ERROR CORRECTION APPROACH WITH STRUCTURAL BREAK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Akhsyim Afandi

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available There was a question whether monetary policy works through bank lending channelrequired a monetary-induced change in bank loans originates from the supply side. Mostempirical studies that employed vector autoregressive (VAR models failed to fulfill thisrequirement. Aiming to offer a solution to this identification problem, this paper developed afive-variable vector error correction (VEC model of two separate bank credit markets inIndonesia. Departing from previous studies, the model of each market took account of onestructural break endogenously determined by implementing a unit root test. A cointegrationtest that took account of one structural break suggested two cointegrating vectors identifiedas bank lending supply and demand relations. The estimated VEC system for both marketssuggested that bank loans adjusted more strongly in the direction of the supply equation.

  14. Learning time-dependent noise to reduce logical errors: real time error rate estimation in quantum error correction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huo, Ming-Xia; Li, Ying

    2017-12-01

    Quantum error correction is important to quantum information processing, which allows us to reliably process information encoded in quantum error correction codes. Efficient quantum error correction benefits from the knowledge of error rates. We propose a protocol for monitoring error rates in real time without interrupting the quantum error correction. Any adaptation of the quantum error correction code or its implementation circuit is not required. The protocol can be directly applied to the most advanced quantum error correction techniques, e.g. surface code. A Gaussian processes algorithm is used to estimate and predict error rates based on error correction data in the past. We find that using these estimated error rates, the probability of error correction failures can be significantly reduced by a factor increasing with the code distance.

  15. Determinants of Egyptian Banking Sector Profitability: Time-Series Analysis from 2004-2014

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Heba Youssef Hashem

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to examine the determinants of banking sector profitability in Egypt to shed light on the most influential variables that have a significant impact on the performance of this vital sector. Design/methodology/approach - The analysis includes a time series model of quarterly data from 2004 to 2014. The model utilizes Cointegration technique to investigate the long-run relationship between the return on equity as a proxy for bank profitability and several bank-specific variables including liquidity, capital adequacy, and percentage of non-performing loans. In addition, Vector Error Correction Model (VECM is utilized to explore the short-run dynamics of the model and the speed of adjustment to reach the long-run equilibrium. Findings - The main findings of this work show that banking sector profitability is inversely related to capital adequacy, the percentage of loan provisions and the ratio of deposits to total assets. On the other hand, it is positively related to the size of the banking sector which implies that the banking sector exhibits economies of scale. Research limitations/implications - The implications of this work is that it helps reveal the major factors affecting bank performance in the short-run and long-run, and hence provide bank managers and monetary policy makers with beneficial insights on how to enhance bank performance. Since the banking sector represents one of the main engines of financing investment, enhancing the efficiency of this sector would contribute to economic growth and prosperity Originality/value - The Vector error correction model showed that about 4% of the disequilibrium is corrected each quarter to reach the long run equilibrium. In addition, all bank specific variables were found to affect profitability in the long-run only. This study would serve as a base that further work on Egyptian banking sector profitability can build on by incorporating more variables in the

  16. Improved efficiency of maximum likelihood analysis of time series with temporally correlated errors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Langbein, John

    2017-08-01

    Most time series of geophysical phenomena have temporally correlated errors. From these measurements, various parameters are estimated. For instance, from geodetic measurements of positions, the rates and changes in rates are often estimated and are used to model tectonic processes. Along with the estimates of the size of the parameters, the error in these parameters needs to be assessed. If temporal correlations are not taken into account, or each observation is assumed to be independent, it is likely that any estimate of the error of these parameters will be too low and the estimated value of the parameter will be biased. Inclusion of better estimates of uncertainties is limited by several factors, including selection of the correct model for the background noise and the computational requirements to estimate the parameters of the selected noise model for cases where there are numerous observations. Here, I address the second problem of computational efficiency using maximum likelihood estimates (MLE). Most geophysical time series have background noise processes that can be represented as a combination of white and power-law noise, 1/f^{α } with frequency, f. With missing data, standard spectral techniques involving FFTs are not appropriate. Instead, time domain techniques involving construction and inversion of large data covariance matrices are employed. Bos et al. (J Geod, 2013. doi: 10.1007/s00190-012-0605-0) demonstrate one technique that substantially increases the efficiency of the MLE methods, yet is only an approximate solution for power-law indices >1.0 since they require the data covariance matrix to be Toeplitz. That restriction can be removed by simply forming a data filter that adds noise processes rather than combining them in quadrature. Consequently, the inversion of the data covariance matrix is simplified yet provides robust results for a wider range of power-law indices.

  17. The string prediction models as an invariants of time series in forex market

    OpenAIRE

    Richard Pincak; Marian Repasan

    2011-01-01

    In this paper we apply a new approach of the string theory to the real financial market. It is direct extension and application of the work [1] into prediction of prices. The models are constructed with an idea of prediction models based on the string invariants (PMBSI). The performance of PMBSI is compared to support vector machines (SVM) and artificial neural networks (ANN) on an artificial and a financial time series. Brief overview of the results and analysis is given. The first model is ...

  18. Phase Space Prediction of Chaotic Time Series with Nu-Support Vector Machine Regression

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ye Meiying; Wang Xiaodong

    2005-01-01

    A new class of support vector machine, nu-support vector machine, is discussed which can handle both classification and regression. We focus on nu-support vector machine regression and use it for phase space prediction of chaotic time series. The effectiveness of the method is demonstrated by applying it to the Henon map. This study also compares nu-support vector machine with back propagation (BP) networks in order to better evaluate the performance of the proposed methods. The experimental results show that the nu-support vector machine regression obtains lower root mean squared error than the BP networks and provides an accurate chaotic time series prediction. These results can be attributable to the fact that nu-support vector machine implements the structural risk minimization principle and this leads to better generalization than the BP networks.

  19. Impact of the carbon price on the integrating European electricity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aatola, Piia; Ollikainen, Markku; Toppinen, Anne

    2013-01-01

    We study the impact of the carbon price on the integrating electricity market in the EU. Our theoretical framework suggests that the price of carbon has a positive but uneven impact on electricity prices depending on the marginal production plant. The carbon price may increase price differences in the short run. We apply time series analysis on daily forward data from 2003 to 2011 and investigate whether we can find empirical evidence for our analytical findings. Our results support the hypotheses that integration in electricity prices has increased over time and that the carbon price has a positive but uneven impact on the integration of prices. - Highlights: • We model the integrating European electricity market under emissions trading scheme. • We examine the impact of carbon price on the electricity market prices. • We test theoretical hypotheses with econometric models. • Results show carbon price has a positive but uneven impact on electricity prices. • Integration among electricity prices has increased during 2003–2011

  20. Effect of irradiated pork on physicochemical properties of meat emulsions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, Yun-Sang; Sung, Jung-Min; Jeong, Tae-Jun; Hwang, Ko-Eun; Song, Dong-Heon; Ham, Youn-Kyung; Kim, Hyun-Wook; Kim, Young-Boong; Kim, Cheon-Jei

    2016-02-01

    The effect of pork irradiated with doses up to 10 kGy on meat emulsions formulated with carboxy methyl cellulose (CMC) was investigated. Raw pork was vacuums packaged at a thickness of 2.0 cm and irradiated by X-ray linear accelerator (15 kW, 5 MeV). The emulsion had higher lightness, myofibrillar protein solubility, total protein solubility, and apparent viscosity with increasing doses, whereas cooking loss, total expressible fluid separation, and hardness decreased. There were no significant differences in fat separation, sarcoplasmic protein solubility, springiness, and cohesiveness. Our results indicated that it is treatment by ionizing radiation which causes the effects the physicochemical properties of the final raw meat product.

  1. Fractality of profit landscapes and validation of time series models for stock prices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yi, Il Gu; Oh, Gabjin; Kim, Beom Jun

    2013-08-01

    We apply a simple trading strategy for various time series of real and artificial stock prices to understand the origin of fractality observed in the resulting profit landscapes. The strategy contains only two parameters p and q, and the sell (buy) decision is made when the log return is larger (smaller) than p (-q). We discretize the unit square (p,q) ∈ [0,1] × [0,1] into the N × N square grid and the profit Π(p,q) is calculated at the center of each cell. We confirm the previous finding that local maxima in profit landscapes are scattered in a fractal-like fashion: the number M of local maxima follows the power-law form M ˜ Na, but the scaling exponent a is found to differ for different time series. From comparisons of real and artificial stock prices, we find that the fat-tailed return distribution is closely related to the exponent a ≈ 1.6 observed for real stock markets. We suggest that the fractality of profit landscape characterized by a ≈ 1.6 can be a useful measure to validate time series model for stock prices.

  2. Separation of spatial-temporal patterns ('climatic modes') by combined analysis of really measured and generated numerically vector time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feigin, A. M.; Mukhin, D.; Volodin, E. M.; Gavrilov, A.; Loskutov, E. M.

    2013-12-01

    The new method of decomposition of the Earth's climate system into well separated spatial-temporal patterns ('climatic modes') is discussed. The method is based on: (i) generalization of the MSSA (Multichannel Singular Spectral Analysis) [1] for expanding vector (space-distributed) time series in basis of spatial-temporal empirical orthogonal functions (STEOF), which makes allowance delayed correlations of the processes recorded in spatially separated points; (ii) expanding both real SST data, and longer by several times SST data generated numerically, in STEOF basis; (iii) use of the numerically produced STEOF basis for exclusion of 'too slow' (and thus not represented correctly) processes from real data. The application of the method allows by means of vector time series generated numerically by the INM RAS Coupled Climate Model [2] to separate from real SST anomalies data [3] two climatic modes possessing by noticeably different time scales: 3-5 and 9-11 years. Relations of separated modes to ENSO and PDO are investigated. Possible applications of spatial-temporal climatic patterns concept to prognosis of climate system evolution is discussed. 1. Ghil, M., R. M. Allen, M. D. Dettinger, K. Ide, D. Kondrashov, et al. (2002) "Advanced spectral methods for climatic time series", Rev. Geophys. 40(1), 3.1-3.41. 2. http://83.149.207.89/GCM_DATA_PLOTTING/GCM_INM_DATA_XY_en.htm 3. http://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/SOURCES/.KAPLAN/.EXTENDED/.v2/.ssta/

  3. Short-term wind power combined forecasting based on error forecast correction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liang, Zhengtang; Liang, Jun; Wang, Chengfu; Dong, Xiaoming; Miao, Xiaofeng

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • The correlation relationships of short-term wind power forecast errors are studied. • The correlation analysis method of the multi-step forecast errors is proposed. • A strategy selecting the input variables for the error forecast models is proposed. • Several novel combined models based on error forecast correction are proposed. • The combined models have improved the short-term wind power forecasting accuracy. - Abstract: With the increasing contribution of wind power to electric power grids, accurate forecasting of short-term wind power has become particularly valuable for wind farm operators, utility operators and customers. The aim of this study is to investigate the interdependence structure of errors in short-term wind power forecasting that is crucial for building error forecast models with regression learning algorithms to correct predictions and improve final forecasting accuracy. In this paper, several novel short-term wind power combined forecasting models based on error forecast correction are proposed in the one-step ahead, continuous and discontinuous multi-step ahead forecasting modes. First, the correlation relationships of forecast errors of the autoregressive model, the persistence method and the support vector machine model in various forecasting modes have been investigated to determine whether the error forecast models can be established by regression learning algorithms. Second, according to the results of the correlation analysis, the range of input variables is defined and an efficient strategy for selecting the input variables for the error forecast models is proposed. Finally, several combined forecasting models are proposed, in which the error forecast models are based on support vector machine/extreme learning machine, and correct the short-term wind power forecast values. The data collected from a wind farm in Hebei Province, China, are selected as a case study to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed

  4. Effects of dietary hop (Humulus lupulus L.) β-acids on quality attributes, composition and oxidative stability of pork meat.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sbardella, Maicon; Racanicci, Aline Mc; Gois, Franz D; de Lima, Cristiane B; Migotto, Dannielle L; Costa, Leandro B; Miyada, Valdomiro S

    2018-04-01

    The effects of dietary levels of hop β-acids on physical attributes, lipid oxidation and chemical composition of pork meat were evaluated. Thirty-two castrated male pigs obtained from a complete block design feeding experiment (6.23 ± 0.42 kg initial body weight (BW) to 20.45 ± 0.95 kg final BW) and fed diets supplemented with 0, 120, 240 or 360 mg kg -1 hop β-acids during 35 days were slaughtered to sample longissimus dorsi muscle for meat analysis. No effects (P > 0.05) of dietary hop β-acids were observed on meat physical attributes. Quadratic effects (P pork meat. © 2017 Society of Chemical Industry. © 2017 Society of Chemical Industry.

  5. On the integration of financial markets: How strong is the evidence from five international stock markets?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bentes, Sónia R.

    2015-07-01

    This paper examines the integration of financial markets using data from five international stock markets in the context of globalization. The theoretical basis of this study relies on the price theory and the Law of One Price, which was adjusted to the framework of financial markets. When price levels are nonstationary, cointegration and the error correction model constitute a powerful tool for the empirical examination of market integration. The error correction model provides a fully dynamic framework that allows to separating the long and the short run effects of the integration process. A dataset encompassing the daily stock price series of the PSI 20 (Portugal), IBEX 35 (Spain), FTSE 100 (UK), NIKKEI 225 (Japan) and SP 500 (US) indices from January 4th 1999 to September 19th 2014 is employed. The results highlight that these five stock markets are linked together by just one long-run relationship, although short-run movements are also present, which causes distinct deviations from the long-run equilibrium relationship. Endogeneity prevails in the system as a whole. While market integration in the sense of the Law of One Price holds, pairwise full price transmission has limited evidence. The results therefore show that stock market price movements are highly nonlinear and complex.

  6. Structure analysis of tax revenue and inflation rate in Banda Aceh using vector error correction model with multiple alpha

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sofyan, Hizir; Maulia, Eva; Miftahuddin

    2017-11-01

    A country has several important parameters to achieve economic prosperity, such as tax revenue and inflation rate. One of the largest revenues of the State Budget in Indonesia comes from the tax sector. Meanwhile, the rate of inflation occurring in a country can be used as an indicator, to measure the good and bad economic problems faced by the country. Given the importance of tax revenue and inflation rate control in achieving economic prosperity, it is necessary to analyze the structure of tax revenue relations and inflation rate. This study aims to produce the best VECM (Vector Error Correction Model) with optimal lag using various alpha and perform structural analysis using the Impulse Response Function (IRF) of the VECM models to examine the relationship of tax revenue, and inflation in Banda Aceh. The results showed that the best model for the data of tax revenue and inflation rate in Banda Aceh City using alpha 0.01 is VECM with optimal lag 2, while the best model for data of tax revenue and inflation rate in Banda Aceh City using alpha 0.05 and 0,1 VECM with optimal lag 3. However, the VECM model with alpha 0.01 yielded four significant models of income tax model, inflation rate of Banda Aceh, inflation rate of health and inflation rate of education in Banda Aceh. While the VECM model with alpha 0.05 and 0.1 yielded one significant model that is income tax model. Based on the VECM models, then there are two structural analysis IRF which is formed to look at the relationship of tax revenue, and inflation in Banda Aceh, the IRF with VECM (2) and IRF with VECM (3).

  7. Essays in financial transmission rights pricing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Posner, Barry

    This work examines issues in the pricing of financial transmission rights in the PJM market region. The US federal government is advocating the creation of large-scale, not-for-profit regional transmission organizations to increase the efficiency of the transmission of electricity. As a non-profit entity, PJM needs to allocate excess revenues collected as congestion rents, and the participants in the transmission markets need to be able to hedge their exposure to congestion rents. For these purposes, PJM has developed an instrument known as the financial transmission right (FTR). This research, utilizing a new data set assembled by the author, looks at two aspects of the FTR market. The first chapter examines the problem of forecasting congestion in a transmission grid. In the PJM FTR system firms bid in a competitive auction for FTRs that cover a period of one month. The auctions take place in the middle of the previous month; therefore firms have to forecast congestion rents for the period two to six weeks after the auction. The common methods of forecasting congestion are either time-series models or full-information engineering studies. In this research, the author develops a forecasting system that is more economically grounded than a simple time-series model, but requires less information than an engineering model. This method is based upon the arbitrage-cost methodology, whereby congesting is calculated as the difference of two non-observable variables: the transmission price difference that would exist in the total absence of transmission capacity between two nodes, and the ability of the existing transmission to reduced that price difference. If the ability to reduce the price difference is greater than the price difference, then the cost of electricity at each node will be the same, and congestion rent will be zero. If transmission capacity limits are binding on the flow of power, then a price difference persists and congestion rents exist. Three

  8. On-site identification of meat species in processed foods by a rapid real-time polymerase chain reaction system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Furutani, Shunsuke; Hagihara, Yoshihisa; Nagai, Hidenori

    2017-09-01

    Correct labeling of foods is critical for consumers who wish to avoid a specific meat species for religious or cultural reasons. Therefore, gene-based point-of-care food analysis by real-time Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) is expected to contribute to the quality control in the food industry. In this study, we perform rapid identification of meat species by our portable rapid real-time PCR system, following a very simple DNA extraction method. Applying these techniques, we correctly identified beef, pork, chicken, rabbit, horse, and mutton in processed foods in 20min. Our system was sensitive enough to detect the interfusion of about 0.1% chicken egg-derived DNA in a processed food sample. Our rapid real-time PCR system is expected to contribute to the quality control in food industries because it can be applied for the identification of meat species, and future applications can expand its functionality to the detection of genetically modified organisms or mutations. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Electricity transmission pricing. How contracts must reflect costs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shuttleworth, G.

    1996-01-01

    Two basic structures of transmission systems are distinguished: transmission channels offered through an integrated electric utility and open access offered over an independent network. The first structure allows the application of 'top-down pricing', where transmission prices are derived from customer tariffs less avoidable generation costs. Transmission prices in the second structure must be derived from a 'bottom-up' analysis of transmission costs, including building capacity, marginal losses, and congestion. 5 refs

  10. Economic Dynamics of the German Hog-Price Cycle

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ernst Berg

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available We investigated the economic dynamics of the German hog-price cycle with an innovative ‘diagnostic’ modeling approach. Hog-price cycles are conventionally modeled stochastically—most recently as randomly-shifting sinusoidal oscillations. Alternatively, we applied Nonlinear Time Series analysis to empirically reconstruct a deterministic, low-dimensional, and nonlinear attractor from observed hog prices. We next formulated a structural (explanatory model of the pork industry to synthesize the empirical hog-price attractor. Model simulations demonstrate that low price-elasticity of demand contributes to aperiodic price cycling – a well know result – and further reveal two other important driving factors: investment irreversibility (caused by high specificity of technology, and liquidity-driven investment behavior of German farmers.

  11. An analysis of price and volatility transmission in butter, palm oil and crude oil markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dennis Bergmann

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Recent changes to the common agricultural policy (CAP saw a shift to greater market orientation for the EU dairy industry. Given this reorientation, the volatility of EU dairy commodity prices has sharply increased, creating the need to develop proper risk management tools to protect farmers’ income and to ensure stable prices for processors and consumers. In addition, there is a perceived threat that these commodities may be replaced by cheaper substitutes, such as palm oil, as dairy commodity prices become more volatile. Global production of palm oil almost doubled over the last decade while butter production remained relatively flat. Palm oil also serves as a feedstock for biodiesel production, thus establishing a new link between agricultural commodities and crude oil. Price and volatility transmission effects between EU and World butter prices, as well as between butter, palm oil and crude oil prices, before and after the Luxembourg agreement, are analysed. Vector autoregression (VAR models are applied to capture price transmission effects between these markets. These are combined with a multivariate GARCH model to account for potential volatility transmission. Results indicate strong price and volatility transmission effects between EU and World butter prices. EU butter shocks further spillover to palm oil volatility. In addition, there is evidence that oil prices spillover to World butter prices and World butter volatility.

  12. Failure and reliability prediction by support vector machines regression of time series data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chagas Moura, Marcio das; Zio, Enrico; Lins, Isis Didier; Droguett, Enrique

    2011-01-01

    Support Vector Machines (SVMs) are kernel-based learning methods, which have been successfully adopted for regression problems. However, their use in reliability applications has not been widely explored. In this paper, a comparative analysis is presented in order to evaluate the SVM effectiveness in forecasting time-to-failure and reliability of engineered components based on time series data. The performance on literature case studies of SVM regression is measured against other advanced learning methods such as the Radial Basis Function, the traditional MultiLayer Perceptron model, Box-Jenkins autoregressive-integrated-moving average and the Infinite Impulse Response Locally Recurrent Neural Networks. The comparison shows that in the analyzed cases, SVM outperforms or is comparable to other techniques. - Highlights: → Realistic modeling of reliability demands complex mathematical formulations. → SVM is proper when the relation input/output is unknown or very costly to be obtained. → Results indicate the potential of SVM for reliability time series prediction. → Reliability estimates support the establishment of adequate maintenance strategies.

  13. Integrated model for pricing, delivery time setting, and scheduling in make-to-order environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garmdare, Hamid Sattari; Lotfi, M. M.; Honarvar, Mahboobeh

    2018-03-01

    Usually, in make-to-order environments which work only in response to the customer's orders, manufacturers for maximizing the profits should offer the best price and delivery time for an order considering the existing capacity and the customer's sensitivity to both the factors. In this paper, an integrated approach for pricing, delivery time setting and scheduling of new arrival orders are proposed based on the existing capacity and accepted orders in system. In the problem, the acquired market demands dependent on the price and delivery time of both the manufacturer and its competitors. A mixed-integer non-linear programming model is presented for the problem. After converting to a pure non-linear model, it is validated through a case study. The efficiency of proposed model is confirmed by comparing it to both the literature and the current practice. Finally, sensitivity analysis for the key parameters is carried out.

  14. Dynamic strategic responses among advertisers: the case of meat products

    OpenAIRE

    Jeffrey Hyde; Brent Gloy

    2007-01-01

    The case of strategic advertising response is examined for branded and generic meat products (beef, pork, and poultry). A dynamic conceptual model is developed to identify the determinants of advertising expenditures. A time-series model is then used to examine the competitive behavior of branded and generic meat advertisers. The results identify two types of advertising strategies those based upon changes in revenues and those based upon changes in competitor advertising expenditures. Most g...

  15. Building Chaotic Model From Incomplete Time Series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siek, Michael; Solomatine, Dimitri

    2010-05-01

    This paper presents a number of novel techniques for building a predictive chaotic model from incomplete time series. A predictive chaotic model is built by reconstructing the time-delayed phase space from observed time series and the prediction is made by a global model or adaptive local models based on the dynamical neighbors found in the reconstructed phase space. In general, the building of any data-driven models depends on the completeness and quality of the data itself. However, the completeness of the data availability can not always be guaranteed since the measurement or data transmission is intermittently not working properly due to some reasons. We propose two main solutions dealing with incomplete time series: using imputing and non-imputing methods. For imputing methods, we utilized the interpolation methods (weighted sum of linear interpolations, Bayesian principle component analysis and cubic spline interpolation) and predictive models (neural network, kernel machine, chaotic model) for estimating the missing values. After imputing the missing values, the phase space reconstruction and chaotic model prediction are executed as a standard procedure. For non-imputing methods, we reconstructed the time-delayed phase space from observed time series with missing values. This reconstruction results in non-continuous trajectories. However, the local model prediction can still be made from the other dynamical neighbors reconstructed from non-missing values. We implemented and tested these methods to construct a chaotic model for predicting storm surges at Hoek van Holland as the entrance of Rotterdam Port. The hourly surge time series is available for duration of 1990-1996. For measuring the performance of the proposed methods, a synthetic time series with missing values generated by a particular random variable to the original (complete) time series is utilized. There exist two main performance measures used in this work: (1) error measures between the actual

  16. Microbiota analysis to reveal temperature abuse of fresh pork

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Buschhardt, Tasja; Bahl, Martin Iain; Hansen, Tina Beck

    2017-01-01

    whether temperature induced changes in the community composition on fresh meat surfaces can reflect the temperature-history (combination of time and temperature). Sterile pieces of pork were inoculated with a carcass swab homogenate, to which Salmonella was added. Changes in the meat microbiota were...

  17. NAFTA AT 21: STRUCTURAL CHANGE IN MEXICAN’S DEMAND FOR U.S. MEAT AND MEAT PRODUCTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frank Kyekyeku Nti

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to examine the influence of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA on the change in consumer preference for U.S. meat and meat products in Mexico and to provide empirical estimates of the extent of sensitivity of meat price change to change in quantity demand. The analyses used an Inverse Almost Ideal Demand System (IAIDS model to address the study objectives due to its appropriateness in modeling the level of utility for commodities with fixed or exogenously determined short run supply. The study findings show that Mexico’s participation in NAFTA could have indirectly effected a structural change in demand for imported meat from the U.S. but the direction of change is heterogeneous among the different meat groups. Also, while Mexican demand for U.S. meat is inflexible, price response to changes in the quantity of imported U.S. poultry is much sensitive compared to pork and beef.

  18. Likelihood-Based Inference in Nonlinear Error-Correction Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kristensen, Dennis; Rahbæk, Anders

    We consider a class of vector nonlinear error correction models where the transfer function (or loadings) of the stationary relation- ships is nonlinear. This includes in particular the smooth transition models. A general representation theorem is given which establishes the dynamic properties...... and a linear trend in general. Gaussian likelihood-based estimators are considered for the long- run cointegration parameters, and the short-run parameters. Asymp- totic theory is provided for these and it is discussed to what extend asymptotic normality and mixed normaity can be found. A simulation study...

  19. A Threshold Cointegration Analysis of Asymmetric Adjustment of OPEC and non-OPEC Monthly Crude Oil Prices

    OpenAIRE

    Ghassan, Hassan B.; Banerjee, Prashanta K.

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to analyze the dynamics of crude oil prices of OPEC and non-OPEC countries using threshold cointegration. To capture the long run asymmetric price transmission mechanism, we develop an error correction model within a threshold cointegration and CGARCH errors framework. The empirical contribution of our paper specifies the cointegrating relation between OPEC price and non-OPEC prices and estimates how and to what extent the respective prices adjust to eliminate dis...

  20. European validation of Real-Time PCR method for detection of Salmonella spp. in pork meat.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delibato, Elisabetta; Rodriguez-Lazaro, David; Gianfranceschi, Monica; De Cesare, Alessandra; Comin, Damiano; Gattuso, Antonietta; Hernandez, Marta; Sonnessa, Michele; Pasquali, Frédérique; Sreter-Lancz, Zuzsanna; Saiz-Abajo, María-José; Pérez-De-Juan, Javier; Butrón, Javier; Prukner-Radovcic, Estella; Horvatek Tomic, Danijela; Johannessen, Gro S; Jakočiūnė, Džiuginta; Olsen, John E; Chemaly, Marianne; Le Gall, Francoise; González-García, Patricia; Lettini, Antonia Anna; Lukac, Maja; Quesne, Segolénè; Zampieron, Claudia; De Santis, Paola; Lovari, Sarah; Bertasi, Barbara; Pavoni, Enrico; Proroga, Yolande T R; Capuano, Federico; Manfreda, Gerardo; De Medici, Dario

    2014-08-01

    The classical microbiological method for detection of Salmonella spp. requires more than five days for final confirmation, and consequently there is a need for an alternative methodology for detection of this pathogen particularly in those food categories with a short shelf-life. This study presents an international (at European level) ISO 16140-based validation study of a non-proprietary Real-Time PCR-based method that can generate final results the day following sample analysis. It is based on an ISO compatible enrichment coupled to an easy and inexpensive DNA extraction and a consolidated Real-Time PCR assay. Thirteen laboratories from seven European Countries participated to this trial, and pork meat was selected as food model. The limit of detection observed was down to 10 CFU per 25 g of sample, showing excellent concordance and accordance values between samples and laboratories (100%). In addition, excellent values were obtained for relative accuracy, specificity and sensitivity (100%) when the results obtained for the Real-Time PCR-based methods were compared to those of the ISO 6579:2002 standard method. The results of this international trial demonstrate that the evaluated Real-Time PCR-based method represents an excellent alternative to the ISO standard. In fact, it shows an equal and solid performance as well as it reduces dramatically the extent of the analytical process, and can be easily implemented routinely by the Competent Authorities and Food Industry laboratories. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  1. A Vector Autoregressive Model for Electricity Prices Subject to Long Memory and Regime Switching

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Haldrup, Niels; Nielsen, Frank; Nielsen, Morten Ørregaard

    2007-01-01

    A regime dependent VAR model is suggested that allows long memory (fractional integration) in each of the regime states as well as the possibility of fractional cointegra- tion. The model is relevant in describing the price dynamics of electricity prices where the transmission of power is subject...... to occasional congestion periods. For a system of bilat- eral prices non-congestion means that electricity prices are identical whereas congestion makes prices depart. Hence, the joint price dynamics implies switching between essen- tially a univariate price process under non-congestion and a bivariate price...

  2. ANALYSIS AND CORRECTION OF SYSTEMATIC HEIGHT MODEL ERRORS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Jacobsen

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The geometry of digital height models (DHM determined with optical satellite stereo combinations depends upon the image orientation, influenced by the satellite camera, the system calibration and attitude registration. As standard these days the image orientation is available in form of rational polynomial coefficients (RPC. Usually a bias correction of the RPC based on ground control points is required. In most cases the bias correction requires affine transformation, sometimes only shifts, in image or object space. For some satellites and some cases, as caused by small base length, such an image orientation does not lead to the possible accuracy of height models. As reported e.g. by Yong-hua et al. 2015 and Zhang et al. 2015, especially the Chinese stereo satellite ZiYuan-3 (ZY-3 has a limited calibration accuracy and just an attitude recording of 4 Hz which may not be satisfying. Zhang et al. 2015 tried to improve the attitude based on the color sensor bands of ZY-3, but the color images are not always available as also detailed satellite orientation information. There is a tendency of systematic deformation at a Pléiades tri-stereo combination with small base length. The small base length enlarges small systematic errors to object space. But also in some other satellite stereo combinations systematic height model errors have been detected. The largest influence is the not satisfying leveling of height models, but also low frequency height deformations can be seen. A tilt of the DHM by theory can be eliminated by ground control points (GCP, but often the GCP accuracy and distribution is not optimal, not allowing a correct leveling of the height model. In addition a model deformation at GCP locations may lead to not optimal DHM leveling. Supported by reference height models better accuracy has been reached. As reference height model the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM digital surface model (DSM or the new AW3D30 DSM, based on ALOS

  3. Assessing error sources for Landsat time series analysis for tropical test sites in Viet Nam and Ethiopia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schultz, Michael; Verbesselt, Jan; Herold, Martin; Avitabile, Valerio

    2013-10-01

    Researchers who use remotely sensed data can spend half of their total effort analysing prior data. If this data preprocessing does not match the application, this time spent on data analysis can increase considerably and can lead to inaccuracies. Despite the existence of a number of methods for pre-processing Landsat time series, each method has shortcomings, particularly for mapping forest changes under varying illumination, data availability and atmospheric conditions. Based on the requirements of mapping forest changes as defined by the United Nations (UN) Reducing Emissions from Forest Degradation and Deforestation (REDD) program, the accurate reporting of the spatio-temporal properties of these changes is necessary. We compared the impact of three fundamentally different radiometric preprocessing techniques Moderate Resolution Atmospheric TRANsmission (MODTRAN), Second Simulation of a Satellite Signal in the Solar Spectrum (6S) and simple Dark Object Subtraction (DOS) on mapping forest changes using Landsat time series data. A modification of Breaks For Additive Season and Trend (BFAST) monitor was used to jointly map the spatial and temporal agreement of forest changes at test sites in Ethiopia and Viet Nam. The suitability of the pre-processing methods for the occurring forest change drivers was assessed using recently captured Ground Truth and high resolution data (1000 points). A method for creating robust generic forest maps used for the sampling design is presented. An assessment of error sources has been performed identifying haze as a major source for time series analysis commission error.

  4. Synthetic river flow time series generator for dispatch and spot price forecast

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Flores, R.A.

    2007-01-01

    Decision-making in electricity markets is complicated by uncertainties in demand growth, power supplies and fuel prices. In Peru, where the electrical power system is highly dependent on water resources at dams and river flows, hydrological uncertainties play a primary role in planning, price and dispatch forecast. This paper proposed a signal processing method for generating new synthetic river flow time series as a support for planning and spot market price forecasting. River flow time series are natural phenomena representing a continuous-time domain process. As an alternative synthetic representation of the original river flow time series, this proposed signal processing method preserves correlations, basic statistics and seasonality. It takes into account deterministic, periodic and non periodic components such as those due to the El Nino Southern Oscillation phenomenon. The new synthetic time series has many correlations with the original river flow time series, rendering it suitable for possible replacement of the classical method of sorting historical river flow time series. As a dispatch and planning approach to spot pricing, the proposed method offers higher accuracy modeling by decomposing the signal into deterministic, periodic, non periodic and stochastic sub signals. 4 refs., 4 tabs., 13 figs

  5. Applications and Comparisons of Four Time Series Models in Epidemiological Surveillance Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Young, Alistair A.; Li, Xiaosong

    2014-01-01

    Public health surveillance systems provide valuable data for reliable predication of future epidemic events. This paper describes a study that used nine types of infectious disease data collected through a national public health surveillance system in mainland China to evaluate and compare the performances of four time series methods, namely, two decomposition methods (regression and exponential smoothing), autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and support vector machine (SVM). The data obtained from 2005 to 2011 and in 2012 were used as modeling and forecasting samples, respectively. The performances were evaluated based on three metrics: mean absolute error (MAE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and mean square error (MSE). The accuracy of the statistical models in forecasting future epidemic disease proved their effectiveness in epidemiological surveillance. Although the comparisons found that no single method is completely superior to the others, the present study indeed highlighted that the SVMs outperforms the ARIMA model and decomposition methods in most cases. PMID:24505382

  6. Period, epoch, and prediction errors of ephemerides from continuous sets of timing measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deeg, H. J.

    2015-06-01

    Space missions such as Kepler and CoRoT have led to large numbers of eclipse or transit measurements in nearly continuous time series. This paper shows how to obtain the period error in such measurements from a basic linear least-squares fit, and how to correctly derive the timing error in the prediction of future transit or eclipse events. Assuming strict periodicity, a formula for the period error of these time series is derived, σP = σT (12 / (N3-N))1 / 2, where σP is the period error, σT the timing error of a single measurement, and N the number of measurements. Compared to the iterative method for period error estimation by Mighell & Plavchan (2013), this much simpler formula leads to smaller period errors, whose correctness has been verified through simulations. For the prediction of times of future periodic events, usual linear ephemeris were epoch errors are quoted for the first time measurement, are prone to an overestimation of the error of that prediction. This may be avoided by a correction for the duration of the time series. An alternative is the derivation of ephemerides whose reference epoch and epoch error are given for the centre of the time series. For long continuous or near-continuous time series whose acquisition is completed, such central epochs should be the preferred way for the quotation of linear ephemerides. While this work was motivated from the analysis of eclipse timing measures in space-based light curves, it should be applicable to any other problem with an uninterrupted sequence of discrete timings for which the determination of a zero point, of a constant period and of the associated errors is needed.

  7. Augmented GNSS Differential Corrections Minimum Mean Square Error Estimation Sensitivity to Spatial Correlation Modeling Errors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nazelie Kassabian

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Railway signaling is a safety system that has evolved over the last couple of centuries towards autonomous functionality. Recently, great effort is being devoted in this field, towards the use and exploitation of Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS signals and GNSS augmentation systems in view of lower railway track equipments and maintenance costs, that is a priority to sustain the investments for modernizing the local and regional lines most of which lack automatic train protection systems and are still manually operated. The objective of this paper is to assess the sensitivity of the Linear Minimum Mean Square Error (LMMSE algorithm to modeling errors in the spatial correlation function that characterizes true pseudorange Differential Corrections (DCs. This study is inspired by the railway application; however, it applies to all transportation systems, including the road sector, that need to be complemented by an augmentation system in order to deliver accurate and reliable positioning with integrity specifications. A vector of noisy pseudorange DC measurements are simulated, assuming a Gauss-Markov model with a decay rate parameter inversely proportional to the correlation distance that exists between two points of a certain environment. The LMMSE algorithm is applied on this vector to estimate the true DC, and the estimation error is compared to the noise added during simulation. The results show that for large enough correlation distance to Reference Stations (RSs distance separation ratio values, the LMMSE brings considerable advantage in terms of estimation error accuracy and precision. Conversely, the LMMSE algorithm may deteriorate the quality of the DC measurements whenever the ratio falls below a certain threshold.

  8. Error analysis of short term wind power prediction models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    De Giorgi, Maria Grazia; Ficarella, Antonio; Tarantino, Marco

    2011-01-01

    The integration of wind farms in power networks has become an important problem. This is because the electricity produced cannot be preserved because of the high cost of storage and electricity production must follow market demand. Short-long-range wind forecasting over different lengths/periods of time is becoming an important process for the management of wind farms. Time series modelling of wind speeds is based upon the valid assumption that all the causative factors are implicitly accounted for in the sequence of occurrence of the process itself. Hence time series modelling is equivalent to physical modelling. Auto Regressive Moving Average (ARMA) models, which perform a linear mapping between inputs and outputs, and Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) and Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference Systems (ANFIS), which perform a non-linear mapping, provide a robust approach to wind power prediction. In this work, these models are developed in order to forecast power production of a wind farm with three wind turbines, using real load data and comparing different time prediction periods. This comparative analysis takes in the first time, various forecasting methods, time horizons and a deep performance analysis focused upon the normalised mean error and the statistical distribution hereof in order to evaluate error distribution within a narrower curve and therefore forecasting methods whereby it is more improbable to make errors in prediction. (author)

  9. Error analysis of short term wind power prediction models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    De Giorgi, Maria Grazia; Ficarella, Antonio; Tarantino, Marco [Dipartimento di Ingegneria dell' Innovazione, Universita del Salento, Via per Monteroni, 73100 Lecce (Italy)

    2011-04-15

    The integration of wind farms in power networks has become an important problem. This is because the electricity produced cannot be preserved because of the high cost of storage and electricity production must follow market demand. Short-long-range wind forecasting over different lengths/periods of time is becoming an important process for the management of wind farms. Time series modelling of wind speeds is based upon the valid assumption that all the causative factors are implicitly accounted for in the sequence of occurrence of the process itself. Hence time series modelling is equivalent to physical modelling. Auto Regressive Moving Average (ARMA) models, which perform a linear mapping between inputs and outputs, and Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) and Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference Systems (ANFIS), which perform a non-linear mapping, provide a robust approach to wind power prediction. In this work, these models are developed in order to forecast power production of a wind farm with three wind turbines, using real load data and comparing different time prediction periods. This comparative analysis takes in the first time, various forecasting methods, time horizons and a deep performance analysis focused upon the normalised mean error and the statistical distribution hereof in order to evaluate error distribution within a narrower curve and therefore forecasting methods whereby it is more improbable to make errors in prediction. (author)

  10. Ultrasonic characterization of pork meat salting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    García-Pérez, J V; De Prados, M; Pérez-Muelas, N; Cárcel, J A; Benedito, J

    2012-01-01

    Salting process plays a key role in the preservation and quality of dry-cured meat products. Therefore, an adequate monitoring of salt content during salting is necessary to reach high quality products. Thus, the main objective of this work was to test the ability of low intensity ultrasound to monitor the salting process of pork meat. Cylindrical samples (diameter 36 mm, height 60±10 mm) of Biceps femoris were salted (brine 20% NaCl, w/w) at 2 °C for 1, 2, 4 and 7 days. During salting and at each experimental time, three cylinders were taken in order to measure the ultrasonic velocity at 2 °C. Afterwards, the cylinders were split in three sections (height 20 mm), measuring again the ultrasonic velocity and determining the salt and the moisture content by AOAC standards. In the whole cylinders, moisture content was reduced from 763 (g/kg sample) in fresh samples to 723 (g/kg sample) in samples salted for 7 days, while the maximum salt gain was 37.3 (g/kg sample). Although, moisture and salt contents up to 673 and 118 (g/kg sample) were reached in the sections of meat cylinders, respectively. During salting, the ultrasonic velocity increased due to salt gain and water loss. Thus, significant (p 2 = 0.975) and moisture (R 2 = 0.863) contents. In addition, the change of the ultrasonic velocity with the increase of the salt content showed a good agreement with the Kinsler equation. Therefore, low intensity ultrasound emerges as a potential technique to monitor, in a non destructive way, the meat salting processes carried out in the food industry.

  11. Lactic acid bacteria as protective cultures in fermented pork meat to prevent Clostridium spp. growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Gioia, Diana; Mazzola, Giuseppe; Nikodinoska, Ivana; Aloisio, Irene; Langerholc, Tomaz; Rossi, Maddalena; Raimondi, Stefano; Melero, Beatriz; Rovira, Jordi

    2016-10-17

    In meat fermented foods, Clostridium spp. growth is kept under control by the addition of nitrite. The growing request of consumers for safer products has led to consider alternative bio-based approaches, the use of protective cultures being one of them. This work is aimed at checking the possibility of using two Lactobacillus spp. strains as protective cultures against Clostridium spp. in pork ground meat for fermented salami preparation. Both Lactobacillus strains displayed anti-clostridia activity in vitro using the spot agar test and after co-culturing them in liquid medium with each Clostridium strain. Only one of them, however, namely L. plantarum PCS20, was capable of effectively surviving in ground meat and of performing anti-microbial activity in carnis in a challenge test where meat was inoculated with the Clostridium strain. Therefore, this work pointed out that protective cultures can be a feasible approach for nitrite reduction in fermented meat products. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  12. Effects on noise properties of GPS time series caused by higher-order ionospheric corrections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Weiping; Deng, Liansheng; Li, Zhao; Zhou, Xiaohui; Liu, Hongfei

    2014-04-01

    Higher-order ionospheric (HOI) effects are one of the principal technique-specific error sources in precise global positioning system (GPS) analysis. These effects also influence the non-linear characteristics of GPS coordinate time series. In this paper, we investigate these effects on coordinate time series in terms of seasonal variations and noise amplitudes. Both power spectral techniques and maximum likelihood estimators (MLE) are used to evaluate these effects quantitatively and qualitatively. Our results show an overall improvement for the analysis of global sites if HOI effects are considered. We note that the noise spectral index that is used for the determination of the optimal noise models in our analysis ranged between -1 and 0 both with and without HOI corrections, implying that the coloured noise cannot be removed by these corrections. However, the corrections were found to have improved noise properties for global sites. After the corrections were applied, the noise amplitudes at most sites decreased, among which the white noise amplitudes decreased remarkably. The white noise amplitudes of up to 81.8% of the selected sites decreased in the up component, and the flicker noise of 67.5% of the sites decreased in the north component. Stacked periodogram results show that, no matter whether the HOI effects are considered or not, a common fundamental period of 1.04 cycles per year (cpy), together with the expected annual and semi-annual signals, can explain all peaks of the north and up components well. For the east component, however, reasonable results can be obtained only based on HOI corrections. HOI corrections are useful for better detecting the periodic signals in GPS coordinate time series. Moreover, the corrections contributed partly to the seasonal variations of the selected sites, especially for the up component. Statistically, HOI corrections reduced more than 50% and more than 65% of the annual and semi-annual amplitudes respectively at the

  13. Bias-Correction in Vector Autoregressive Models: A Simulation Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tom Engsted

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available We analyze the properties of various methods for bias-correcting parameter estimates in both stationary and non-stationary vector autoregressive models. First, we show that two analytical bias formulas from the existing literature are in fact identical. Next, based on a detailed simulation study, we show that when the model is stationary this simple bias formula compares very favorably to bootstrap bias-correction, both in terms of bias and mean squared error. In non-stationary models, the analytical bias formula performs noticeably worse than bootstrapping. Both methods yield a notable improvement over ordinary least squares. We pay special attention to the risk of pushing an otherwise stationary model into the non-stationary region of the parameter space when correcting for bias. Finally, we consider a recently proposed reduced-bias weighted least squares estimator, and we find that it compares very favorably in non-stationary models.

  14. A measure of marketing price transmission in the rice market of Taiwan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuan-Ming Lee

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available The goal of this paper is to test whether changes in the marketing margin betweenthe farm and the retail prices can result in an asymmetric relationship between the farm and the retail prices in the rice market of Taiwan. By separating the transaction cost variation into two regimes, this paper utilizes a two-regime TVECM with the error correction term serving as the threshold variable to create a non-linear threshold model. The empirical results show that when the marketing margin is lower than the threshold value, the market system operates freely and there is feedback between the farm and retail prices. However, when the marketing margin is higher than the threshold value, the government intervenes in the market and the causality between the farm and retail prices no longer exists. The conclusions are as follows. Changes in the marketing margin can cause the asymmetric price transmission between the farm and retail prices in Taiwan’s rice markets; therefore, ignoring the effect of the marketing margin could lead to errors in the models. When the marketing margin is higher than the threshold value, the government intervenes in the market and the causality between the two prices is broken.

  15. Performance Analysis of Indonesia’s Mining Sector Price Index

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hastra Reza Satyatama

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Subprime mortage’s crisis in United States 2008 giving effect to the global capital markets especially the stock price index of the mining sector Indonesia. This research analyzes the effect of BI Rate, exchange rate, world gold price, crude oil price, and Dow Jones Industrial Average on the stock price index of the mining sector. This research employs time series monthly data of 2009-2016 with Error Correction Model-Engle Granger (ECM-EG as the method. The analysis showed that the BI rate, exchange rate and world gold price, has a negative and significant effect. World oil prices affect positively but not significant meanwhile the Dow Jones Industrial Average has a positive and significant impact on the stock price index of the mining sector. For investors in the mining sector, should pay attention to the exchange rate of the rupiah and Dow Jones Index significantly in the mining sector of the stock price index.DOI: 10.15408/sjie.v6i2.5395 

  16. An energy-stable time-integrator for phase-field models

    KAUST Repository

    Vignal, Philippe

    2016-12-27

    We introduce a provably energy-stable time-integration method for general classes of phase-field models with polynomial potentials. We demonstrate how Taylor series expansions of the nonlinear terms present in the partial differential equations of these models can lead to expressions that guarantee energy-stability implicitly, which are second-order accurate in time. The spatial discretization relies on a mixed finite element formulation and isogeometric analysis. We also propose an adaptive time-stepping discretization that relies on a first-order backward approximation to give an error-estimator. This error estimator is accurate, robust, and does not require the computation of extra solutions to estimate the error. This methodology can be applied to any second-order accurate time-integration scheme. We present numerical examples in two and three spatial dimensions, which confirm the stability and robustness of the method. The implementation of the numerical schemes is done in PetIGA, a high-performance isogeometric analysis framework.

  17. An energy-stable time-integrator for phase-field models

    KAUST Repository

    Vignal, Philippe; Collier, N.; Dalcin, Lisandro; Brown, D.L.; Calo, V.M.

    2016-01-01

    We introduce a provably energy-stable time-integration method for general classes of phase-field models with polynomial potentials. We demonstrate how Taylor series expansions of the nonlinear terms present in the partial differential equations of these models can lead to expressions that guarantee energy-stability implicitly, which are second-order accurate in time. The spatial discretization relies on a mixed finite element formulation and isogeometric analysis. We also propose an adaptive time-stepping discretization that relies on a first-order backward approximation to give an error-estimator. This error estimator is accurate, robust, and does not require the computation of extra solutions to estimate the error. This methodology can be applied to any second-order accurate time-integration scheme. We present numerical examples in two and three spatial dimensions, which confirm the stability and robustness of the method. The implementation of the numerical schemes is done in PetIGA, a high-performance isogeometric analysis framework.

  18. Estimating Price Volatility Structure in Iran’s Meat Market: Application of General GARCH Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Z. Rasouli Birami

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Over the past few years, the price volatility of agricultural products and food markets has attracted attention of many researchers and policy makers. This growing attention was started from the food price crisis in 2007 and 2008 when major agricultural products faced accelerated price increases and then rapidly decreased. This paper focused on the price volatility of major commodities related to three market levels of Iran’s meat market, including hay (the input level, calf and sheep (the wholesale level and beef and mutton (the retail level. In particular, efforts will made to find more appropriate models for explaining the behavior of volatility of the return series and to identify which return series are more volatile. The effects of good and bad news on the volatility of prices in each return series will also be studied. Materials and Methods: Different GARCH type models have been considered the best for modeling volatility of return series. Nonlinear GARCH models were introduced to capture the effect of good and bad news separately. The paper uses some GARCH type models including GARCH, Exponential GARCH (EGARCH, GJR-GARCH, Threshold GARCH (TGARCH, Simple Asymmetric GARCH (SAGARCH, Power GARCH (PGARCH, Non-linear GARCH (NGARCH, Asymmetric Power GARCH (APGARCH and Non-linear Power GARCH (NPGARCH to model the volatility of hay, calf, sheep, beef and mutton return series. The data on hay, calf, sheep, and beef and mutton monthly prices are published by Iran’s livestock support firm. The paper uses monthly data over the sample period of the May 1992 to the March 2014. Results and Discussion: Descriptive statistics of the studied return series show evidence of skewness and kurtosis. The results here show that all the series has fat tails. The significant p-values for the Ljung-Box Q-statistics mean that the auto-correlation exists in the squared residuals. The presence of unit roots in the return series is confirmed by the

  19. TIME SERIES ANALYSIS USING A UNIQUE MODEL OF TRANSFORMATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Goran Klepac

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available REFII1 model is an authorial mathematical model for time series data mining. The main purpose of that model is to automate time series analysis, through a unique transformation model of time series. An advantage of this approach of time series analysis is the linkage of different methods for time series analysis, linking traditional data mining tools in time series, and constructing new algorithms for analyzing time series. It is worth mentioning that REFII model is not a closed system, which means that we have a finite set of methods. At first, this is a model for transformation of values of time series, which prepares data used by different sets of methods based on the same model of transformation in a domain of problem space. REFII model gives a new approach in time series analysis based on a unique model of transformation, which is a base for all kind of time series analysis. The advantage of REFII model is its possible application in many different areas such as finance, medicine, voice recognition, face recognition and text mining.

  20. Spatial price transmission and market integration of Cistanthera ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Spatial price transmission and market integration of Cistanthera papaverifera species in ... Log in or Register to get access to full text downloads. ... the null hypothesis of non-stationarity at their levels at 1% and 5% significance level. ... This study concludes that sawn-wood marketing in Delta State have a high degree of ...

  1. SDS-PAGE in conjunction with match lane statistical analysis for the detection of meat adulteration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hegazy, R.A.; Nassef, A.E.

    2003-01-01

    Sodium dodecyl sulfate-polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis (SDS-PAGE) of seven meat types and two component mixtures of them were made. Banding patterns of resulting denstograms in conjunction with cluster analysi and match lane statistical analysis were used for the detection of meat adulteration. The use of beef as a reference meat have resulted in a clear distinction from goat, pork, chicken, turkey, camel meats and their mixture and camel meat. The use of pork meat as a reference was more assurate because of the low degrees of matching with all meats and their mixtures and consequently high abilities of differentiations. The purpose of identification. the purpose of identification of meat species arises from the desire of human, in general, to confirm what he eat ? for moslems the establisment that meat is free from pork type is most important. Another economic purpose is the detection of adulteration of valuable meat by less valuable types. Several attempts in different laboratories were done to serve this object but most of analytical techniques. Barbieri and formi (1999) were able to detect 5% of meat type in mixtures by isolelectric focusing and 1% of meat type by PCR technique in beef, pork, chicken and turkey meats. By crossover immunoelectrophoresis technique, zanon and vianello (1998) were also to detect a limit of 5% of specific meat in mixuters of beef, pork, mutton/lamb, horse and chicken meats

  2. Modeling malaria control intervention effect in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa using intervention time series analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ebhuoma, Osadolor; Gebreslasie, Michael; Magubane, Lethumusa

    The change of the malaria control intervention policy in South Africa (SA), re-introduction of dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (DDT), may be responsible for the low and sustained malaria transmission in KwaZulu-Natal (KZN). We evaluated the effect of the re-introduction of DDT on malaria in KZN and suggested practical ways the province can strengthen her already existing malaria control and elimination efforts, to achieve zero malaria transmission. We obtained confirmed monthly malaria cases in KZN from the malaria control program of KZN from 1998 to 2014. The seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) intervention time series analysis (ITSA) was employed to model the effect of the re-introduction of DDT on confirmed monthly malaria cases. The result is an abrupt and permanent decline of monthly malaria cases (w 0 =-1174.781, p-value=0.003) following the implementation of the intervention policy. The sustained low malaria cases observed over a long period suggests that the continued usage of DDT did not result in insecticide resistance as earlier anticipated. It may be due to exophagic malaria vectors, which renders the indoor residual spraying not totally effective. Therefore, the feasibility of reducing malaria transmission to zero in KZN requires other reliable and complementary intervention resources to optimize the existing ones. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  3. Time-dependent phase error correction using digital waveform synthesis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doerry, Armin W.; Buskirk, Stephen

    2017-10-10

    The various technologies presented herein relate to correcting a time-dependent phase error generated as part of the formation of a radar waveform. A waveform can be pre-distorted to facilitate correction of an error induced into the waveform by a downstream operation/component in a radar system. For example, amplifier power droop effect can engender a time-dependent phase error in a waveform as part of a radar signal generating operation. The error can be quantified and an according complimentary distortion can be applied to the waveform to facilitate negation of the error during the subsequent processing of the waveform. A time domain correction can be applied by a phase error correction look up table incorporated into a waveform phase generator.

  4. Bias-correction in vector autoregressive models: A simulation study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Engsted, Tom; Pedersen, Thomas Quistgaard

    We analyze and compare the properties of various methods for bias-correcting parameter estimates in vector autoregressions. First, we show that two analytical bias formulas from the existing literature are in fact identical. Next, based on a detailed simulation study, we show that this simple...... and easy-to-use analytical bias formula compares very favorably to the more standard but also more computer intensive bootstrap bias-correction method, both in terms of bias and mean squared error. Both methods yield a notable improvement over both OLS and a recently proposed WLS estimator. We also...... of pushing an otherwise stationary model into the non-stationary region of the parameter space during the process of correcting for bias....

  5. Elements of nonlinear time series analysis and forecasting

    CERN Document Server

    De Gooijer, Jan G

    2017-01-01

    This book provides an overview of the current state-of-the-art of nonlinear time series analysis, richly illustrated with examples, pseudocode algorithms and real-world applications. Avoiding a “theorem-proof” format, it shows concrete applications on a variety of empirical time series. The book can be used in graduate courses in nonlinear time series and at the same time also includes interesting material for more advanced readers. Though it is largely self-contained, readers require an understanding of basic linear time series concepts, Markov chains and Monte Carlo simulation methods. The book covers time-domain and frequency-domain methods for the analysis of both univariate and multivariate (vector) time series. It makes a clear distinction between parametric models on the one hand, and semi- and nonparametric models/methods on the other. This offers the reader the option of concentrating exclusively on one of these nonlinear time series analysis methods. To make the book as user friendly as possible...

  6. Development of VIS/NIR spectroscopic system for real-time prediction of fresh pork quality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Haiyun; Peng, Yankun; Zhao, Songwei; Sasao, Akira

    2013-05-01

    Quality attributes of fresh meat will influence nutritional value and consumers' purchasing power. The aim of the research was to develop a prototype for real-time detection of quality in meat. It consisted of hardware system and software system. A VIS/NIR spectrograph in the range of 350 to 1100 nm was used to collect the spectral data. In order to acquire more potential information of the sample, optical fiber multiplexer was used. A conveyable and cylindrical device was designed and fabricated to hold optical fibers from multiplexer. High power halogen tungsten lamp was collected as the light source. The spectral data were obtained with the exposure time of 2.17ms from the surface of the sample by press down the trigger switch on the self-developed system. The system could automatically acquire, process, display and save the data. Moreover the quality could be predicted on-line. A total of 55 fresh pork samples were used to develop prediction model for real time detection. The spectral data were pretreated with standard normalized variant (SNV) and partial least squares regression (PLSR) was used to develop prediction model. The correlation coefficient and root mean square error of the validation set for water content and pH were 0.810, 0.653, and 0.803, 0.098 respectively. The research shows that the real-time non-destructive detection system based on VIS/NIR spectroscopy can be efficient to predict the quality of fresh meat.

  7. Effect of meat appearance on consumer preferences for pork chops in Greece and Cyprus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fortomaris, P; Arsenos, G; Georgiadis, M; Banos, G; Stamataris, C; Zygoyiannis, D

    2006-04-01

    The effect of meat appearance on consumers' preferences for pork chops was assessed using images manipulated for appearance characteristics. Data were collected from 412 consumers in Greece and Cyprus. Consumers were asked for their preference for pork chops from a book of computer-modified images and then completed a questionnaire of socio-demographic information, including eating and purchasing behaviour. Consumers under the age of 35 years showed preferences for dark red, lean pork, while consumers aged 35 years and older preferred either dark or light red pork. Gender appeared to be an important selection factor as men showed an increased preference for dark red pork while women preferred the light red. Consumers who stated that they like pork for its taste (91%) preferred either dark or light red pork chops while those who like pork for reasons other than taste preferred dark red, lean pork. Urban consumers preferred light red, fatty pork chops while the rural consumers preferred the dark red pork chops.

  8. The relationship between renewable energy assets and crude oil prices : an empirical analysis with emphasis on the effects of the financial crisis

    OpenAIRE

    Grøm, Halvdan Alexander

    2013-01-01

    In this thesis I have analysed the relationship between renewable energy stocks and the price of crude oil. As a part of my analysis I have provided a basic economic overview of the research period and how the value of renewable energy stocks and crude oil is determined. In order to analyse this relationship I have utilized a Vector Autoregressive Model (VAR) in addition to a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). My findings indicate that the aforementioned assets follow a simi...

  9. Model-based Integration of Past & Future in TimeTravel

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Khalefa, Mohamed E.; Fischer, Ulrike; Pedersen, Torben Bach

    2012-01-01

    We demonstrate TimeTravel, an efficient DBMS system for seamless integrated querying of past and (forecasted) future values of time series, allowing the user to view past and future values as one joint time series. This functionality is important for advanced application domain like energy....... The main idea is to compactly represent time series as models. By using models, the TimeTravel system answers queries approximately on past and future data with error guarantees (absolute error and confidence) one order of magnitude faster than when accessing the time series directly. In addition...... it to answer approximate and exact queries. TimeTravel is implemented into PostgreSQL, thus achieving complete user transparency at the query level. In the demo, we show the easy building of a hierarchical model index for a real-world time series and the effect of varying the error guarantees on the speed up...

  10. Transmission and capacity pricing and constraints

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fusco, M.

    1999-01-01

    A series of overhead viewgraphs accompanied this presentation which discussed the following issues regarding the North American electric power industry: (1) capacity pricing transmission constraints, (2) nature of transmission constraints, (3) consequences of transmission constraints, and (4) prices as market evidence. Some solutions suggested for pricing constraints included the development of contingent contracts, back-up power in supply regions, and new line capacity construction. 8 tabs., 20 figs

  11. A simulation study to quantify the impacts of exposure measurement error on air pollution health risk estimates in copollutant time-series models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dionisio, Kathie L; Chang, Howard H; Baxter, Lisa K

    2016-11-25

    Exposure measurement error in copollutant epidemiologic models has the potential to introduce bias in relative risk (RR) estimates. A simulation study was conducted using empirical data to quantify the impact of correlated measurement errors in time-series analyses of air pollution and health. ZIP-code level estimates of exposure for six pollutants (CO, NO x , EC, PM 2.5 , SO 4 , O 3 ) from 1999 to 2002 in the Atlanta metropolitan area were used to calculate spatial, population (i.e. ambient versus personal), and total exposure measurement error. Empirically determined covariance of pollutant concentration pairs and the associated measurement errors were used to simulate true exposure (exposure without error) from observed exposure. Daily emergency department visits for respiratory diseases were simulated using a Poisson time-series model with a main pollutant RR = 1.05 per interquartile range, and a null association for the copollutant (RR = 1). Monte Carlo experiments were used to evaluate the impacts of correlated exposure errors of different copollutant pairs. Substantial attenuation of RRs due to exposure error was evident in nearly all copollutant pairs studied, ranging from 10 to 40% attenuation for spatial error, 3-85% for population error, and 31-85% for total error. When CO, NO x or EC is the main pollutant, we demonstrated the possibility of false positives, specifically identifying significant, positive associations for copollutants based on the estimated type I error rate. The impact of exposure error must be considered when interpreting results of copollutant epidemiologic models, due to the possibility of attenuation of main pollutant RRs and the increased probability of false positives when measurement error is present.

  12. Track Irregularity Time Series Analysis and Trend Forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jia Chaolong

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The combination of linear and nonlinear methods is widely used in the prediction of time series data. This paper analyzes track irregularity time series data by using gray incidence degree models and methods of data transformation, trying to find the connotative relationship between the time series data. In this paper, GM (1,1 is based on first-order, single variable linear differential equations; after an adaptive improvement and error correction, it is used to predict the long-term changing trend of track irregularity at a fixed measuring point; the stochastic linear AR, Kalman filtering model, and artificial neural network model are applied to predict the short-term changing trend of track irregularity at unit section. Both long-term and short-term changes prove that the model is effective and can achieve the expected accuracy.

  13. Effect of hot-boned pork on the keeping quality of fresh pork sausage.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guerrero Legarreta, I; Usborne, W R; Ashton, G C

    1987-01-01

    The first experiment evaluated the effect of solid carbon dioxide (dry ice) addition to hot-boned meat, in different proportions, upon the keeping quality of fresh pork sausage patties. Dry ice had some negative effects at levels of 20% to 40%, such as hardening and colour fading of samples, although it increased water-holding capacity of the sausage. In the second experiment three proportions of hot-boned meat and chilled meat were evaluated as a means to extend the retail storage time of fresh pork sausage links. Hot-boned pork was treated by three methods: freezing the meat before grinding, salting and freezing, and salting plus dry ice addition. The results favoured the use of 50% hot-boned meat and 50% chilled meat, for which the lowest hardness and oxidation values were obtained. Microbial counts and hue values showed no significant variation among the three treatments. Salting and freezing hot-boned meat before grinding was the method which produced the best overall quality. Copyright © 1987. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  14. Applying multicriteria analysis for choosing the best marination for pork

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nieto VMOS

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective. This research aimed to choose a best marination solution using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP. Materials and methods. Pork meat samples were collected in a commercial slaughterhouse, and they were randomly distributed in four treatments with three different salt contents blend. Color, pH, retention of the solution, exudate and cooking loss, shear force and sensory attributes were assessed and evaluated. Multicriteria analysis using AHP was applied to the results in order to choose the best overall marination solution. Criteria used for selection were the physical and sensory characteristics of meat, and based on these criteria were classified solutions marination. Results. Results showed that the combination of the salts was the best alternative (Na2CO3+NaCl+Na5P3O10, followed by the solutions of (Na2CO3 + NaCl, and (Na5P3O10 + NaCl. Conclusions. All tested solutions with the salts used alone or in combination led to better physical and sensory attributes than the meat not marinated.

  15. Variability in the contents of pork meat nutrients and how it may affect food composition databases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reig, Milagro; Aristoy, M-Concepción; Toldrá, Fidel

    2013-10-01

    Pork meat is generally recognised as a food with relevant nutritional properties because of its content in high biological value proteins, group B vitamins, minerals especially heme iron, trace elements and other bioactive compounds. But pork meat also contributes to the intake of fat, saturated fatty acids, cholesterol, and other substances that, in inappropriate amounts, may result in negative physiologically effects. However, there are relevant factors affecting the content of many of these substances and somehow such variability should be taken into consideration. So, genetics, age and even type of muscle have a relevant influence on the amount of fat and the contents in heme iron. Also the composition in fatty acids of triacylglycerols is very sensitive to the contents of cereals in the feed; for instance, polyunsaturated fatty acids may range from 10% to 22% in pork meat. The content of other nutrients, like vitamins E and A, are also depending on the type of feed. Some bioactive substances like coenzyme Q10, taurine, glutamine, creatine, creatinine, carnosine and anserine show a large dependence on the type of muscle. This manuscript describes the main factors affecting the composition of pork meat nutrients and how these changes may affect the general food composition databases. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. A METHODOLOGY FOR THE CHOICE OF THE BEST FITTING CONTINUOUS-TIME STOCHASTIC MODELS OF CRUDE OIL PRICE: THE CASE OF RUSSIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hamidreza Mostafaei

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available In this study, it has been attempted to select the best continuous- time stochastic model, in order to describe and forecast the oil price of Russia, by information and statistics about oil price that has been available for oil price in the past. For this purpose, method of The Maximum Likelihood Estimation is implemented for estimation of the parameters of continuous-time stochastic processes. The result of unit root test with a structural break, reveals that time series of the crude oil price is a stationary series. The simulation of continuous-time stochastic processes and the mean square error between the simulated prices and the market ones shows that the Geometric Brownian Motion is the best model for the Russian crude oil price.

  17. Crude Oil Price Forecasting Based on Hybridizing Wavelet Multiple Linear Regression Model, Particle Swarm Optimization Techniques, and Principal Component Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shabri, Ani; Samsudin, Ruhaidah

    2014-01-01

    Crude oil prices do play significant role in the global economy and are a key input into option pricing formulas, portfolio allocation, and risk measurement. In this paper, a hybrid model integrating wavelet and multiple linear regressions (MLR) is proposed for crude oil price forecasting. In this model, Mallat wavelet transform is first selected to decompose an original time series into several subseries with different scale. Then, the principal component analysis (PCA) is used in processing subseries data in MLR for crude oil price forecasting. The particle swarm optimization (PSO) is used to adopt the optimal parameters of the MLR model. To assess the effectiveness of this model, daily crude oil market, West Texas Intermediate (WTI), has been used as the case study. Time series prediction capability performance of the WMLR model is compared with the MLR, ARIMA, and GARCH models using various statistics measures. The experimental results show that the proposed model outperforms the individual models in forecasting of the crude oil prices series. PMID:24895666

  18. Crude oil price forecasting based on hybridizing wavelet multiple linear regression model, particle swarm optimization techniques, and principal component analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shabri, Ani; Samsudin, Ruhaidah

    2014-01-01

    Crude oil prices do play significant role in the global economy and are a key input into option pricing formulas, portfolio allocation, and risk measurement. In this paper, a hybrid model integrating wavelet and multiple linear regressions (MLR) is proposed for crude oil price forecasting. In this model, Mallat wavelet transform is first selected to decompose an original time series into several subseries with different scale. Then, the principal component analysis (PCA) is used in processing subseries data in MLR for crude oil price forecasting. The particle swarm optimization (PSO) is used to adopt the optimal parameters of the MLR model. To assess the effectiveness of this model, daily crude oil market, West Texas Intermediate (WTI), has been used as the case study. Time series prediction capability performance of the WMLR model is compared with the MLR, ARIMA, and GARCH models using various statistics measures. The experimental results show that the proposed model outperforms the individual models in forecasting of the crude oil prices series.

  19. Artificial neural network as the tool in prediction rheological features of raw minced meat.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balejko, Jerzy A; Nowak, Zbigniew; Balejko, Edyta

    2012-01-01

    The aim of the study was to elaborate a method of modelling and forecasting rheological features which could be applied to raw minced meat at the stage of mixture preparation with a given ingredient composition. The investigated material contained pork and beef meat, pork fat, fat substitutes, ice and curing mixture in various proportions. Seven texture parameters were measured for each sample of raw minced meat. The data obtained were processed using the artificial neural network module in Statistica 9.0 software. The model that reached the lowest training error was a multi-layer perceptron MLP with three neural layers and architecture 7:7-11-7:7. Correlation coefficients between the experimental and calculated values in training, verification and testing subsets were similar and rather high (around 0.65) which indicated good network performance. High percentage of the total variance explained in PCA analysis (73.5%) indicated that the percentage composition of raw minced meat can be successfully used in the prediction of its rheological features. Statistical analysis of the results revealed, that artificial neural network model is able to predict rheological parameters and thus a complete texture profile of raw minced meat.

  20. Multiresolution analysis of Bursa Malaysia KLCI time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ismail, Mohd Tahir; Dghais, Amel Abdoullah Ahmed

    2017-05-01

    In general, a time series is simply a sequence of numbers collected at regular intervals over a period. Financial time series data processing is concerned with the theory and practice of processing asset price over time, such as currency, commodity data, and stock market data. The primary aim of this study is to understand the fundamental characteristics of selected financial time series by using the time as well as the frequency domain analysis. After that prediction can be executed for the desired system for in sample forecasting. In this study, multiresolution analysis which the assist of discrete wavelet transforms (DWT) and maximal overlap discrete wavelet transform (MODWT) will be used to pinpoint special characteristics of Bursa Malaysia KLCI (Kuala Lumpur Composite Index) daily closing prices and return values. In addition, further case study discussions include the modeling of Bursa Malaysia KLCI using linear ARIMA with wavelets to address how multiresolution approach improves fitting and forecasting results.

  1. Prices, Wages and Fertility in Pre-Industrial England

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Klemp, Marc

    A two-sector Malthusian model is formulated in terms of a cointegrated vector autoregressive (CVAR) model on error correction form. The model allows for both agricultural product wages and relative prices to affect fertility. The model is estimated using new data for the pre-industrial period...... in England, and the analysis reveals a strong, positive effect of agricultural wages as well as a small and, surprisingly, positive effect of real agricultural prices on fertility. Furthermore, it is demonstrated that there is constant returns to scale with respect to labour in the manufacturing sector...

  2. Prices, wages and fertility in pre-industrial England

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Klemp, Marc Patrick Brag

    2012-01-01

    and relative prices to affect fertility. The model is estimated using new data for the pre-industrial period in England, and the analysis reveals a strong, positive effect of agricultural wages as well as a nonnegative effect of real agricultural prices on fertility. Furthermore, it is demonstrated......To shed light on the economic-demographic mechanisms operating in the epoch of pre-industrial economic stagnation, a two-sector Malthusian model is formulated in terms of a cointegrated vector autoregressive model on error correction form. The model allows for both agricultural product wages...

  3. A Potential Use of 3-D Scanning to Evaluate the Chemical Composition of Pork Meat.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adamczak, Lech; Chmiel, Marta; Florowski, Tomasz; Pietrzak, Dorota; Witkowski, Marcin; Barczak, Tomasz

    2015-07-01

    The aim of this study was to determine the possibility of 3-D scanning method in chemical composition evaluation of pork meat. The sampling material comprised neck muscles (1000 g each) obtained from 20 pork carcasses. The volumetric estimation process of the elements was conducted on the basis of point cloud collected using 3-D scanner. Knowing the weight of neck muscles, their density was calculated which was subsequently correlated with the content of basic chemical components of the pork meat (water, protein and fat content, determined by standard methods). The significant correlations (P ≤ 0.05) between meat density and water (r = 0.5213), protein (r = 0.5887), and fat (r = -0.6601) content were obtained. Based on the obtained results it seems likely to employ the 3-D scanning method to compute the meat chemical composition. The use of the 3-D scanning method in industrial practice will allow to evaluate the chemical composition of meat in online mode on a dressing and fabrication line and in a rapid, noninvasive manner. The control of the raw material using the 3-D scanning will allow to make visual assessment more objective and will enable optimal standardization of meat batches prior to processing stage. It will ensure not only the repeatability of product quality characteristics, but also optimal use of raw material-lean and fat meat. The knowledge of chemical composition of meat is essential due to legal requirements associated with mandatory nutrition facts labels on food products. © 2015 Institute of Food Technologists®

  4. Typical Periods for Two-Stage Synthesis by Time-Series Aggregation with Bounded Error in Objective Function

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bahl, Björn; Söhler, Theo; Hennen, Maike; Bardow, André, E-mail: andre.bardow@ltt.rwth-aachen.de [Institute of Technical Thermodynamics, RWTH Aachen University, Aachen (Germany)

    2018-01-08

    Two-stage synthesis problems simultaneously consider here-and-now decisions (e.g., optimal investment) and wait-and-see decisions (e.g., optimal operation). The optimal synthesis of energy systems reveals such a two-stage character. The synthesis of energy systems involves multiple large time series such as energy demands and energy prices. Since problem size increases with the size of the time series, synthesis of energy systems leads to complex optimization problems. To reduce the problem size without loosing solution quality, we propose a method for time-series aggregation to identify typical periods. Typical periods retain the chronology of time steps, which enables modeling of energy systems, e.g., with storage units or start-up cost. The aim of the proposed method is to obtain few typical periods with few time steps per period, while accurately representing the objective function of the full time series, e.g., cost. Thus, we determine the error of time-series aggregation as the cost difference between operating the optimal design for the aggregated time series and for the full time series. Thereby, we rigorously bound the maximum performance loss of the optimal energy system design. In an initial step, the proposed method identifies the best length of typical periods by autocorrelation analysis. Subsequently, an adaptive procedure determines aggregated typical periods employing the clustering algorithm k-medoids, which groups similar periods into clusters and selects one representative period per cluster. Moreover, the number of time steps per period is aggregated by a novel clustering algorithm maintaining chronology of the time steps in the periods. The method is iteratively repeated until the error falls below a threshold value. A case study based on a real-world synthesis problem of an energy system shows that time-series aggregation from 8,760 time steps to 2 typical periods with each 2 time steps results in an error smaller than the optimality gap of

  5. Price transmission and market integration: a test of the central ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Price transmission and market integration: a test of the central market ... cassava production but to improvements in marketing efficiency of the traditional food market ... Improvements in road network and other communication infrastructure will ...

  6. Sensory properties and fatty acids profiles of fermented dry sausages made of pork meat from various breeds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parunović, N.; Radović, Č.; Savić, R.

    2017-09-01

    In this study, the parallel examinations on fatty acid profiles and sensory properties of fermented dry sausages are presented. Three types of kulen and sremska sausages were made, which varied depending on the percentage of meat and fat derived from different pig breeds: autochthonous (Swallow-Belly Mangalitsa and Moravka) and commercial (Swedish Landrace). In sausages made from meat of commercial pig breed, the highest cholesterol content was detected. However, sausage made from the Mangalitsa pork meat contained higher levels of monounsaturated fatty acid (MUFA) and unsaturated fatty acid (USFA), and lower saturated fatty acid levels (SFA).The level of polyunsaturated (PUFA) in sausage made of Landrace pork meat was significantly higher than levels in other types. These differences between fatty acids were mostly deriving by higher total n-6 PUFA content. In a sausage made of Mangulitsa meat, the values of atherogenic (IA) and thrombogenic (IT) health lipid indexes are lower. Kulen and sremska sausages made from the Mangalitsa pork meat was superior in terms of colour, odour, taste, after taste and overall acceptability. This study demonstrate that pig breed have an effect on the chemical content, fatty acids profiles and sensory properties of dry fermented sausages.

  7. Error Analysis for Fourier Methods for Option Pricing

    KAUST Repository

    Häppölä, Juho

    2016-01-06

    We provide a bound for the error committed when using a Fourier method to price European options when the underlying follows an exponential Levy dynamic. The price of the option is described by a partial integro-differential equation (PIDE). Applying a Fourier transformation to the PIDE yields an ordinary differential equation that can be solved analytically in terms of the characteristic exponent of the Levy process. Then, a numerical inverse Fourier transform allows us to obtain the option price. We present a novel bound for the error and use this bound to set the parameters for the numerical method. We analyze the properties of the bound for a dissipative and pure-jump example. The bound presented is independent of the asymptotic behaviour of option prices at extreme asset prices. The error bound can be decomposed into a product of terms resulting from the dynamics and the option payoff, respectively. The analysis is supplemented by numerical examples that demonstrate results comparable to and superior to the existing literature.

  8. Jumps and stochastic volatility in oil prices: Time series evidence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Larsson, Karl; Nossman, Marcus

    2011-01-01

    In this paper we examine the empirical performance of affine jump diffusion models with stochastic volatility in a time series study of crude oil prices. We compare four different models and estimate them using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo method. The support for a stochastic volatility model including jumps in both prices and volatility is strong and the model clearly outperforms the others in terms of a superior fit to data. Our estimation method allows us to obtain a detailed study of oil prices during two periods of extreme market stress included in our sample; the Gulf war and the recent financial crisis. We also address the economic significance of model choice in two option pricing applications. The implied volatilities generated by the different estimated models are compared and we price a real option to develop an oil field. Our findings indicate that model choice can have a material effect on the option values.

  9. Rank error-correcting pairs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Martinez Peñas, Umberto; Pellikaan, Ruud

    2017-01-01

    Error-correcting pairs were introduced as a general method of decoding linear codes with respect to the Hamming metric using coordinatewise products of vectors, and are used for many well-known families of codes. In this paper, we define new types of vector products, extending the coordinatewise ...

  10. Forecast models for suicide: Time-series analysis with data from Italy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Preti, Antonio; Lentini, Gianluca

    2016-01-01

    The prediction of suicidal behavior is a complex task. To fine-tune targeted preventative interventions, predictive analytics (i.e. forecasting future risk of suicide) is more important than exploratory data analysis (pattern recognition, e.g. detection of seasonality in suicide time series). This study sets out to investigate the accuracy of forecasting models of suicide for men and women. A total of 101 499 male suicides and of 39 681 female suicides - occurred in Italy from 1969 to 2003 - were investigated. In order to apply the forecasting model and test its accuracy, the time series were split into a training set (1969 to 1996; 336 months) and a test set (1997 to 2003; 84 months). The main outcome was the accuracy of forecasting models on the monthly number of suicides. These measures of accuracy were used: mean absolute error; root mean squared error; mean absolute percentage error; mean absolute scaled error. In both male and female suicides a change in the trend pattern was observed, with an increase from 1969 onwards to reach a maximum around 1990 and decrease thereafter. The variances attributable to the seasonal and trend components were, respectively, 24% and 64% in male suicides, and 28% and 41% in female ones. Both annual and seasonal historical trends of monthly data contributed to forecast future trends of suicide with a margin of error around 10%. The finding is clearer in male than in female time series of suicide. The main conclusion of the study is that models taking seasonality into account seem to be able to derive information on deviation from the mean when this occurs as a zenith, but they fail to reproduce it when it occurs as a nadir. Preventative efforts should concentrate on the factors that influence the occurrence of increases above the main trend in both seasonal and cyclic patterns of suicides.

  11. Horizontal and vertical transmissions in the US oil supply chain

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaufmann, Robert K.; Dees, Stephane; Mann, Micheal

    2009-01-01

    Oil prices, inventory levels, and utilization rates are influenced by changes that are transmitted horizontally and/or vertically through the energy supply chain. We define horizontal transmissions as changes that are generated by linkages among fuels at a similar stage of processing while vertical transmissions are changes that are generated by upstream/downstream linkages in the oil supply chain. Here, we investigate vertical and horizontal transmissions by estimating vector error correction models (VECMs) that represent relationships among the price of crude oil, US refinery utilization rates, US stocks of crude oil, US stocks of motor gasoline, the US price of motor gasoline, and the US price of a substitute fuel, natural gas. Causal relationships estimated from both weekly and quarterly observations indicate that the price of crude oil is an important gateway for disturbances to the oil supply chain. Impulse response functions indicate that disturbances to crude oil prices ripple down the oil supply chain and affect inventory behaviors, refinery utilization rates, and the price of motor gasoline, and are transmitted laterally to the natural gas market. (author)

  12. An empirical model of daily highs and lows of West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    He, Angela W.W.; Wan, Alan T.K.; Kwok, Jerry T.K.

    2010-01-01

    There is a large collection of literature on energy price forecasting, but most studies typically use monthly average or close-to-close daily price data. In practice, the daily price range constructed from the daily high and low also contains useful information on price volatility and is used frequently in technical analysis. The interaction between the daily high and low and the associated daily range has been examined in several recent studies on stock price and exchange rate forecasts. The present paper adopts a similar approach to analyze the behaviour of the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price over a ten-year period. We find that daily highs and lows of the WTI oil price are cointegrated, with the error correction term being closely approximated by the daily price range. Two forecasting models, one based on a vector error correction mechanism and the other based on a transfer function framework with the range taken as a driver variable, are presented for forecasting the daily highs and lows. The results show that both of these models offer significant advantages over the naive random walk and univariate ARIMA models in terms of out-of-sample forecast accuracy. A trading strategy that makes use of the daily high and low forecasts is further developed. It is found that this strategy generally yields very reasonable trading returns over an evaluation period of about two years. (author)

  13. Co-Movement Analysis of Italian and Greek Electricity Market Wholesale Prices by Using a Wavelet Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    George P. Papaioannou

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available We study the co-evolution of the dynamics or co-movement of two electricity markets, the Italian and Greek, by studying the dynamics of their wholesale day-ahead prices, simultaneously in the time-frequency domain. Co-movement is alternatively referred as market integration in financial economics and markets are internationally integrated if the reward for risk is identical regardless the market one trades in. The innovation of this work is the application of wavelet analysis and more specifically the wavelet coherence to estimate the dynamic interaction between these two prices. Our method is compared to other generic econometric tools used in Economics and Finance namely the dynamic correlation and coherence analysis, to study the co-movement of variables of the type related to these two fields. Our study reveals valuable information that we believe will be extremely useful to the authorities as well as other agents participating in these markets to better prepare the national markets towards the European target model, a framework in which the two markets will be coupled.

  14. Multi-granular trend detection for time-series analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Goethem, A.I.; Staals, F.; Löffler, M.; Dykes, J.; Speckmann, B.

    2017-01-01

    Time series (such as stock prices) and ensembles (such as model runs for weather forecasts) are two important types of one-dimensional time-varying data. Such data is readily available in large quantities but visual analysis of the raw data quickly becomes infeasible, even for moderately sized data

  15. Meat species identification and Halal authentication using PCR analysis of raw and cooked traditional Turkish foods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ulca, Pelin; Balta, Handan; Çağın, Ilknur; Senyuva, Hamide Z

    2013-07-01

    The method performance characteristics of commercially available PCR kits for animal species identification were established. Comminuted meat products containing different levels of pork were prepared from authentic beef, chicken, and turkey. These meat products were analysed in the raw state and after cooking for 20 min at 200 °C. For both raw and cooked meats, the PCR kit could correctly identify the animal species and could reliably detect the addition of pork at a level below 0.1%. A survey of 42 Turkish processed meat products such as soudjouk, salami, sausage, meatball, cured spiced beef and doner kebap was conducted. Thirty-six samples were negative for the presence of pork (meatball sample labelled as 100% beef was found to contain chicken. Another turkey meatball sample was predominantly chicken. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Interdependencies in the energy-bioenergy-food price systems: A cointegration analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ciaian, Pavel; Kancs, d'Artis

    2011-01-01

    The present paper studies the interdependencies between the energy, bioenergy and food prices. We develop a vertically integrated multi-input, multi-output market model with two channels of price transmission: a direct biofuel channel and an indirect input channel. We test the theoretical hypothesis by applying time-series analytical mechanisms to nine major traded agricultural commodity prices, including corn, wheat, rice, sugar, soybeans, cotton, banana, sorghum and tea, along with one weighted average world crude oil price. The data consists of 783 weekly observations extending from January 1994 to December 2008. The empirical findings confirm the theoretical hypothesis that the prices for crude oil and agricultural commodities are interdependent including also commodities not directly used in bioenergy production: an increase in oil price by 1 $/barrel increases the agricultural commodity prices between 0.10 $/tonne and 1.80 $/tonne. Contrary to the theoretical predictions, the indirect input channel of price transmission is found to be small and statistically insignificant. (author)

  17. Failure prognostics by support vector regression of time series data under stationary/nonstationary environmental and operational conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu, Jie

    2015-01-01

    This Ph. D. work is motivated by the possibility of monitoring the conditions of components of energy systems for their extended and safe use, under proper practice of operation and adequate policies of maintenance. The aim is to develop a Support Vector Regression (SVR)-based framework for predicting time series data under stationary/nonstationary environmental and operational conditions. Single SVR and SVR-based ensemble approaches are developed to tackle the prediction problem based on both small and large datasets. Strategies are proposed for adaptively updating the single SVR and SVR-based ensemble models in the existence of pattern drifts. Comparisons with other online learning approaches for kernel-based modelling are provided with reference to time series data from a critical component in Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs) provided by Electricite de France (EDF). The results show that the proposed approaches achieve comparable prediction results, considering the Mean Squared Error (MSE) and Mean Relative Error (MRE), in much less computation time. Furthermore, by analyzing the geometrical meaning of the Feature Vector Selection (FVS) method proposed in the literature, a novel geometrically interpretable kernel method, named Reduced Rank Kernel Ridge Regression-II (RRKRR-II), is proposed to describe the linear relations between a predicted value and the predicted values of the Feature Vectors (FVs) selected by FVS. Comparisons with several kernel methods on a number of public datasets prove the good prediction accuracy and the easy-of-tuning of the hyper-parameters of RRKRR-II. (author)

  18. Vector analysis of high (≥3 diopters) astigmatism correction using small-incision lenticule extraction and laser in situ keratomileusis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chan, Tommy C Y; Wang, Yan; Ng, Alex L K; Zhang, Jiamei; Yu, Marco C Y; Jhanji, Vishal; Cheng, George P M

    2018-06-13

    To compare the astigmatic correction in high myopic astigmatism between small-incision lenticule extraction and laser in situ keratomileusis (LASIK) using vector analysis. Hong Kong Laser Eye Center, Hong Kong. Retrospective case series. Patients who had correction of myopic astigmatism of 3.0 diopters (D) or more and had either small-incision lenticule extraction or femtosecond laser-assisted LASIK were included. Only the left eye was included for analysis. Visual and refractive results were presented and compared between groups. The study comprised 105 patients (40 eyes in the small-incision lenticule extraction group and 65 eyes in the femtosecond laser-assisted LASIK group.) The mean preoperative manifest cylinder was -3.42 D ± 0.55 (SD) in the small-incision lenticule extraction group and -3.47 ± 0.49 D in the LASIK group (P = .655). At 3 months, there was no significant between-group difference in uncorrected distance visual acuity (P = .915) and manifest spherical equivalent (P = .145). Ninety percent and 95.4% of eyes were within ± 0.5 D of the attempted cylindrical correction for the small-incision lenticule extraction and LASIK group, respectively (P = .423). Vector analysis showed comparable target-induced astigmatism (P = .709), surgically induced astigmatism vector (P = .449), difference vector (P = .335), and magnitude of error (P = .413) between groups. The absolute angle of error was 1.88 ± 2.25 degrees in the small-incision lenticule extraction group and 1.37 ± 1.58 degrees in the LASIK group (P = .217). Small-incision lenticule extraction offered astigmatic correction comparable to LASIK in eyes with high myopic astigmatism. Copyright © 2018 ASCRS and ESCRS. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. Does Bilateral Market and Financial Integration Explains International Co-Movement Patterns1

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mobeen Ur Rehman

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available This study aims to explore the relationship between market integration, foreign portfolio equity holding and inflation rates on international stock market linkages between Pakistan and India. To measure stock equity interlinkage, we constructed international co-movement index through rolling beta estimation. Market integration variable between these two countries is constructed using the International Capital Asset Pricing Model (ICAPM. To check the impact of market integration, foreign portfolio equity holding and inflation rate on Pakistan-Indian stock market co-movement, we applied autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL estimation. ARDL estimation is applied due to different stationarity levels of the included variables. The level of convergence speed is measured by the introduction of error correction term (ECT followed by variance decomposition analysis. Results of the study indicated presence of long term relationship among the included variables along with significance variance in bilateral co-movement due to inflation rate differential. The significance of inflation rate differences between these two countries are in accordance with portfolio balance theory stating that investors possess information about the macroeconomic variables thereby readjusting their portfolios for effective diversification.

  20. Quantification of meat proportions by measuring DNA contents in raw and boiled sausages using matrix-adapted calibrators and multiplex real-time PCR.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Köppel, René; Eugster, Albert; Ruf, Jürg; Rentsch, Jürg

    2012-01-01

    The quantification of meat proportions in raw and boiled sausage according to the recipe was evaluated using three different calibrators. To measure the DNA contents from beef, pork, sheep (mutton), and horse, a tetraplex real-time PCR method was applied. Nineteen laboratories analyzed four meat products each made of different proportions of beef, pork, sheep, and horse meat. Three kinds of calibrators were used: raw and boiled sausages of known proportions ranging from 1 to 55% of meat, and a dilution series of DNA from muscle tissue. In general, results generated using calibration sausages were more accurate than those resulting from the use of DNA from muscle tissue, and exhibited smaller measurement uncertainties. Although differences between uses of raw and boiled calibration sausages were small, the most precise and accurate results were obtained by calibration with fine-textured boiled reference sausages.

  1. Characteristics of the transmission of autoregressive sub-patterns in financial time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Xiangyun; An, Haizhong; Fang, Wei; Huang, Xuan; Li, Huajiao; Zhong, Weiqiong

    2014-09-01

    There are many types of autoregressive patterns in financial time series, and they form a transmission process. Here, we define autoregressive patterns quantitatively through an econometrical regression model. We present a computational algorithm that sets the autoregressive patterns as nodes and transmissions between patterns as edges, and then converts the transmission process of autoregressive patterns in a time series into a network. We utilised daily Shanghai (securities) composite index time series to study the transmission characteristics of autoregressive patterns. We found statistically significant evidence that the financial market is not random and that there are similar characteristics between parts and whole time series. A few types of autoregressive sub-patterns and transmission patterns drive the oscillations of the financial market. A clustering effect on fluctuations appears in the transmission process, and certain non-major autoregressive sub-patterns have high media capabilities in the financial time series. Different stock indexes exhibit similar characteristics in the transmission of fluctuation information. This work not only proposes a distinctive perspective for analysing financial time series but also provides important information for investors.

  2. Price formation and transmission along the food commodity chain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivana Blažková

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The article is focused on analysis of price transmission along the wheat commodity chain in the Czech Republic, with the distinction on wheat products with low value added (wheat flour, respectively high value added (wheat rolls. The degree of vertical price transmission is measured to identify potential market failures, because asymmetric price transmission can be the result of existence of market power within the food commodity chain. The data basis is made up from monthly prices on partial markets of the analyzed commodity chain published by Czech Statistical Office and Ministry of Agriculture of the Czech Republic. The monitored time period is from January 2000 till October 2009. The analysis is based on calculation of the price transmission elasticity coefficient (evaluation of price transmission along the chain and the intensity of dependency of positive and negative inter-market price differences (evaluation whether positive or negative price changes are better transmitted among particular vertical markets. Time lag is tested as well. The assessment of price transmission along the wheat commodity chain confirmed the existence of market power especially on the retail stage and low impact of price changes of farm prices on final consumer food prices.

  3. Neural Network Based Real-time Correction of Transducer Dynamic Errors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roj, J.

    2013-12-01

    In order to carry out real-time dynamic error correction of transducers described by a linear differential equation, a novel recurrent neural network was developed. The network structure is based on solving this equation with respect to the input quantity when using the state variables. It is shown that such a real-time correction can be carried out using simple linear perceptrons. Due to the use of a neural technique, knowledge of the dynamic parameters of the transducer is not necessary. Theoretical considerations are illustrated by the results of simulation studies performed for the modeled second order transducer. The most important properties of the neural dynamic error correction, when emphasizing the fundamental advantages and disadvantages, are discussed.

  4. Energy consumption of the households 1960-1996

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bentzen, J.; Engsted, T.

    1999-01-01

    During the 1960s energy consumption of Danish households increased relatively fast, but the oil price shocks of the 1970s and subsequent energy policy changes reversed this development towards stagnation in energy consumption in the recent decades. Using time series data covering the period 1960-1996 the final energy consumption of the residential sector is analysed in the framework of co-integration and error-correction modelling. The long run income and price elasticities are found to be 1.17 and -0.85, respectively, but in the short run energy prices seem to influence consumption less as only income and the weather conditions appear significantly in the short run dynamics of the estimated error-correction model. (au)

  5. Nanobioprobe for the Determination of Pork Adulteration in Burger Formulations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. E. Ali

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available We report the development of a swine-specific hybrid nanobioprobe through a covalent integration of a fluorophore-labeled 27-nucleotide AluI-fragment of swine cytochrome b gene to a 3 nm gold nanoparticle for the determination of pork adulteration in processed meat products. We tested the probe to estimate adulterated pork in ready-to-eat pork-spiked beef burgers. The probe quantitatively detected 1–100% spiked pork in burger formulations with ≥90% accuracy. A plot of observed fluorescence against the known concentration of AluI-digested pork DNA targets generated a concave curve, demonstrating a power relationship (y=2.956x0.509 with a regression coefficient (R2 of 0.986. No cross-species detection was found in a standard set of pork, beef, chicken, mutton, and chevon burgers. The method is suitable for the determination of very short-length nucleic acid targets which cannot be estimated by conventional and real-time PCR but are essential for the determination of microRNA in biodiagnostics and degraded DNA in forensic testing and food analysis.

  6. Nanobioprobe for the Determination of Pork Adulteration in Burger Formulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ali, M.E.; Hashim, U.K.; Foo, L.; Mustafa, S.; Che Man, Y.B.

    2012-01-01

    We report the development of a swine-specific hybrid nanobioprobe through a covalent integration of a fluorophore-labeled 27-nucleotide AluI-fragment of swine cytochrome b gene to a 3 nm gold nanoparticle for the determination of pork adulteration in processed meat products. We tested the probe to estimate adulterated pork in ready-to-eat pork-spiked beef burgers. The probe quantitatively detected 1-100% spiked pork in burger formulations with ≥90% accuracy. A plot of observed fluorescence against the known concentration of AluI-digested pork DNA targets generated a concave curve, demonstrating a power relationship (y=2.956x 0.509 ) with a regression coefficient (R 2 ) of 0.986. No cross-species detection was found in a standard set of pork, beef, chicken, mutton, and chevon burgers. The method is suitable for the determination of very short-length nucleic acid targets which cannot be estimated by conventional and real-time PCR but are essential for the determination of micro RNA in bio diagnostics and degraded DNA in forensic testing and food analysis.

  7. Corporate Governance and Information Incorporation Speed: Lead-Lag between the IGC and IBrX

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José Carneiro da Cunha Oliveira Neto

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Based on intraday data with a frequency of 15 minutes, the present study investigates the relationship between the high corporate governance market (IGC and the traditional market (IBrX. The hypothesis tested is that a higher level of corporate governance reduces the cost associated to incorporating new information to asset prices, and so firms with higher governance incorporate information faster. The co-integration relationship between the time series was tested using the Engle-Granger method in two stages. The vector error correction model (VECM and the Granger causality test do not permit the rejection of the hypothesis of faster incorporation of information for the high governance market prices. To estimate the VECM we used a bivariate GARCH BEKK model. The results suggest that the IGC finds its equilibrium price more rapidly and that the IBrX converges to the equilibrium relationship determined by the IGC.

  8. Ridge Polynomial Neural Network with Error Feedback for Time Series Forecasting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waheeb, Waddah; Ghazali, Rozaida; Herawan, Tutut

    2016-01-01

    Time series forecasting has gained much attention due to its many practical applications. Higher-order neural network with recurrent feedback is a powerful technique that has been used successfully for time series forecasting. It maintains fast learning and the ability to learn the dynamics of the time series over time. Network output feedback is the most common recurrent feedback for many recurrent neural network models. However, not much attention has been paid to the use of network error feedback instead of network output feedback. In this study, we propose a novel model, called Ridge Polynomial Neural Network with Error Feedback (RPNN-EF) that incorporates higher order terms, recurrence and error feedback. To evaluate the performance of RPNN-EF, we used four univariate time series with different forecasting horizons, namely star brightness, monthly smoothed sunspot numbers, daily Euro/Dollar exchange rate, and Mackey-Glass time-delay differential equation. We compared the forecasting performance of RPNN-EF with the ordinary Ridge Polynomial Neural Network (RPNN) and the Dynamic Ridge Polynomial Neural Network (DRPNN). Simulation results showed an average 23.34% improvement in Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) with respect to RPNN and an average 10.74% improvement with respect to DRPNN. That means that using network errors during training helps enhance the overall forecasting performance for the network.

  9. Ridge Polynomial Neural Network with Error Feedback for Time Series Forecasting.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Waddah Waheeb

    Full Text Available Time series forecasting has gained much attention due to its many practical applications. Higher-order neural network with recurrent feedback is a powerful technique that has been used successfully for time series forecasting. It maintains fast learning and the ability to learn the dynamics of the time series over time. Network output feedback is the most common recurrent feedback for many recurrent neural network models. However, not much attention has been paid to the use of network error feedback instead of network output feedback. In this study, we propose a novel model, called Ridge Polynomial Neural Network with Error Feedback (RPNN-EF that incorporates higher order terms, recurrence and error feedback. To evaluate the performance of RPNN-EF, we used four univariate time series with different forecasting horizons, namely star brightness, monthly smoothed sunspot numbers, daily Euro/Dollar exchange rate, and Mackey-Glass time-delay differential equation. We compared the forecasting performance of RPNN-EF with the ordinary Ridge Polynomial Neural Network (RPNN and the Dynamic Ridge Polynomial Neural Network (DRPNN. Simulation results showed an average 23.34% improvement in Root Mean Square Error (RMSE with respect to RPNN and an average 10.74% improvement with respect to DRPNN. That means that using network errors during training helps enhance the overall forecasting performance for the network.

  10. Model reduction methods for vector autoregressive processes

    CERN Document Server

    Brüggemann, Ralf

    2004-01-01

    1. 1 Objective of the Study Vector autoregressive (VAR) models have become one of the dominant research tools in the analysis of macroeconomic time series during the last two decades. The great success of this modeling class started with Sims' (1980) critique of the traditional simultaneous equation models (SEM). Sims criticized the use of 'too many incredible restrictions' based on 'supposed a priori knowledge' in large scale macroeconometric models which were popular at that time. Therefore, he advo­ cated largely unrestricted reduced form multivariate time series models, unrestricted VAR models in particular. Ever since his influential paper these models have been employed extensively to characterize the underlying dynamics in systems of time series. In particular, tools to summarize the dynamic interaction between the system variables, such as impulse response analysis or forecast error variance decompo­ sitions, have been developed over the years. The econometrics of VAR models and related quantities i...

  11. Big Data impacts on stochastic Forecast Models: Evidence from FX time series

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sebastian Dietz

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available With the rise of the Big Data paradigm new tasks for prediction models appeared. In addition to the volume problem of such data sets nonlinearity becomes important, as the more detailed data sets contain also more comprehensive information, e.g. about non regular seasonal or cyclical movements as well as jumps in time series. This essay compares two nonlinear methods for predicting a high frequency time series, the USD/Euro exchange rate. The first method investigated is Autoregressive Neural Network Processes (ARNN, a neural network based nonlinear extension of classical autoregressive process models from time series analysis (see Dietz 2011. Its advantage is its simple but scalable time series process model architecture, which is able to include all kinds of nonlinearities based on the universal approximation theorem of Hornik, Stinchcombe and White 1989 and the extensions of Hornik 1993. However, restrictions related to the numeric estimation procedures limit the flexibility of the model. The alternative is a Support Vector Machine Model (SVM, Vapnik 1995. The two methods compared have different approaches of error minimization (Empirical error minimization at the ARNN vs. structural error minimization at the SVM. Our new finding is, that time series data classified as “Big Data” need new methods for prediction. Estimation and prediction was performed using the statistical programming language R. Besides prediction results we will also discuss the impact of Big Data on data preparation and model validation steps. Normal 0 21 false false false DE X-NONE X-NONE /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Normale Tabelle"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-priority:99; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; mso-para-margin:0cm; mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:10.0pt; font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";}

  12. Analysis of volatile organic compounds and sensory characteristics of pork loin samples irradiated to high doses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hou Zhengchi; Sun Dakuan; Qin Zongying; Jin Jiang; Zhu Liandi; Yao Side; Sheng Kanglong

    2005-01-01

    Fresh pork loin samples, protein enzyme inactivated at (72 ± 3) degree C and vacuum packaged, were irradiated to up to 45 kGy at -20 degree C by 60 Co γ-rays. The irradiated samples were examined by various kinds of method to study high dose irradiation effects of sensory changes (meat color and off-odor), transverse shearing strength, weight loss in steam cooking, volatile organic compounds, and lipid oxidation. The results showed that the high dose irradiation produced no serious effects to the pork loin samples, and volunteer responses showed fine acceptability to the irradiated meat. (authors)

  13. Crude Oil Price Forecasting Based on Hybridizing Wavelet Multiple Linear Regression Model, Particle Swarm Optimization Techniques, and Principal Component Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ani Shabri

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Crude oil prices do play significant role in the global economy and are a key input into option pricing formulas, portfolio allocation, and risk measurement. In this paper, a hybrid model integrating wavelet and multiple linear regressions (MLR is proposed for crude oil price forecasting. In this model, Mallat wavelet transform is first selected to decompose an original time series into several subseries with different scale. Then, the principal component analysis (PCA is used in processing subseries data in MLR for crude oil price forecasting. The particle swarm optimization (PSO is used to adopt the optimal parameters of the MLR model. To assess the effectiveness of this model, daily crude oil market, West Texas Intermediate (WTI, has been used as the case study. Time series prediction capability performance of the WMLR model is compared with the MLR, ARIMA, and GARCH models using various statistics measures. The experimental results show that the proposed model outperforms the individual models in forecasting of the crude oil prices series.

  14. Demanda residencial de energia elétrica em Minas Gerais: 1970-2002

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leonardo Bornacki de Mattos

    2005-12-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this study was to obtain an estimate for residential electricity demand in Minas Gerais in the period from 1970 to 2002. Specifically, the goal was to estimate price and income elasticities. After determining that the series under study were non-stationary, we chose to use the Co-integration approach, estimating a Vector Error Correction Model (VEC Model. The results obtained show that the demand studied is more sensible to variations in the income than to the price of the electricity, although both elasticities are inferior to the unit. It was also concluded that price-elasticity is higher in Minas Gerais than it is for Brazil as a whole, suggesting differentiated usage of this energy among the different states in the Country.

  15. Prevalence and characterization of extended-spectrum β-lactamase (ESBL) and AmpC β-lactamase producing Enterobacteriaceae in fresh pork meat at processing level in Germany.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schill, Franziska; Abdulmawjood, Amir; Klein, Günter; Reich, Felix

    2017-09-18

    ESBL or AmpC β-lactamase producing Enterobacteriaceae is an increasing concern in human medicine. A distribution via the food chain is discussed, but less is known about these bacteria on fresh pork meat. The aim of this study was to investigate the prevalence of ESBL/AmpC Enterobacteriaceae bacteria in fresh pork meat at processing level in Germany. The analysis comprised microbiological hygiene parameters and further pheno- and genotypical characterization of ESBL/AmpC isolates. The examination included three pools of meat and one corresponding meat juice sample from each of the tested pork meat batches (n=63). ESBL/AmpC producers were found in 42.9% (36.5% confirmed by genotype, gt) of the investigated batches, either in meat or meat juice. Meat juice was more often (28.6%) contaminated with ESBL/AmpC bacteria than meat (20.6%). Hygiene parameters were satisfactory in all samples and were thus not a suitable tool for predicting the presence of ESBL/AmpC producers. Most of the 37 confirmed ESBL/AmpC bacteria were identified as Escherichia coli (n=18) or Serratia fonticola (n=13). Susceptibility testing identified 32 of the 37 isolates to be multidrug-resistant. The most common resistance genes TEM, SHV, and CTX-M were found in 19 of the ESBL/AmpC isolates, mostly E. coli. A single detected AmpC β-lactamase producing E. coli carried a CMY-2 gene. Multilocus sequence typing (MLST) investigations of the ESBL/AmpC E. coli revealed 11 different sequence types. In conclusion, fresh pork meat can harbor highly diverse multidrug-resistant ESBL Enterobacteriaceae, even though at low rates. The study suggests that fresh pork meat might be a source for multidrug-resistant ESBL/AmpC Enterobacteriaceae of various origins. Therefore these data contribute to the epidemiological understanding of the distribution of resistant bacteria and the impact of the food chain on public health. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  16. Modeling and Forecasting of Water Demand in Isfahan Using Underlying Trend Concept and Time Series

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Sadeghi

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Accurate water demand modeling for the city is very important for forecasting and policies adoption related to water resources management. Thus, for future requirements of water estimation, forecasting and modeling, it is important to utilize models with little errors. Water has a special place among the basic human needs, because it not hampers human life. The importance of the issue of water management in the extraction and consumption, it is necessary as a basic need. Municipal water applications is include a variety of water demand for domestic, public, industrial and commercial. Predicting the impact of urban water demand in better planning of water resources in arid and semiarid regions are faced with water restrictions. Materials and Methods: One of the most important factors affecting the changing technological advances in production and demand functions, we must pay special attention to the layout pattern. Technology development is concerned not only technically, but also other aspects such as personal, non-economic factors (population, geographical and social factors can be analyzed. Model examined in this study, a regression model is composed of a series of structural components over time allows changed invisible accidentally. Explanatory variables technology (both crystalline and amorphous in a model according to which the material is said to be better, but because of the lack of measured variables over time can not be entered in the template. Model examined in this study, a regression model is composed of a series of structural component invisible accidentally changed over time allows. In this study, structural time series (STSM and ARMA time series models have been used to model and estimate the water demand in Isfahan. Moreover, in order to find the efficient procedure, both models have been compared to each other. The desired data in this research include water consumption in Isfahan, water price and the monthly pay

  17. Reliability-Based Marginal Cost Pricing Problem Case with Both Demand Uncertainty and Travelers’ Perception Errors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shaopeng Zhong

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Focusing on the first-best marginal cost pricing (MCP in a stochastic network with both travel demand uncertainty and stochastic perception errors within the travelers’ route choice decision processes, this paper develops a perceived risk-based stochastic network marginal cost pricing (PRSN-MCP model. Numerical examples based on an integrated method combining the moment analysis approach, the fitting distribution method, and the reliability measures are also provided to demonstrate the importance and properties of the proposed model. The main finding is that ignoring the effect of travel time reliability and travelers’ perception errors may significantly reduce the performance of the first-best MCP tolls, especially under high travelers’ confidence and network congestion levels. The analysis result could also enhance our understanding of (1 the effect of stochastic perception error (SPE on the perceived travel time distribution and the components of road toll; (2 the effect of road toll on the actual travel time distribution and its reliability measures; (3 the effect of road toll on the total network travel time distribution and its statistics; and (4 the effect of travel demand level and the value of reliability (VoR level on the components of road toll.

  18. Multivariate co-integration analysis of the Kaya factors in Ghana.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asumadu-Sarkodie, Samuel; Owusu, Phebe Asantewaa

    2016-05-01

    The fundamental goal of the Government of Ghana's development agenda as enshrined in the Growth and Poverty Reduction Strategy to grow the economy to a middle income status of US$1000 per capita by the end of 2015 could be met by increasing the labour force, increasing energy supplies and expanding the energy infrastructure in order to achieve the sustainable development targets. In this study, a multivariate co-integration analysis of the Kaya factors namely carbon dioxide, total primary energy consumption, population and GDP was investigated in Ghana using vector error correction model with data spanning from 1980 to 2012. Our research results show an existence of long-run causality running from population, GDP and total primary energy consumption to carbon dioxide emissions. However, there is evidence of short-run causality running from population to carbon dioxide emissions. There was a bi-directional causality running from carbon dioxide emissions to energy consumption and vice versa. In other words, decreasing the primary energy consumption in Ghana will directly reduce carbon dioxide emissions. In addition, a bi-directional causality running from GDP to energy consumption and vice versa exists in the multivariate model. It is plausible that access to energy has a relationship with increasing economic growth and productivity in Ghana.

  19. Time series analysis based on two-part models for excessive zero count data to detect farm-level outbreaks of swine echinococcosis during meat inspections.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adachi, Yasumoto; Makita, Kohei

    2017-12-01

    Echinococcus multilocularis is a parasite that causes highly pathogenic zoonoses and is maintained in foxes and rodents on Hokkaido Island, Japan. Detection of E. multilocularis infections in swine is epidemiologically important. In Hokkaido, administrative information is provided to swine producers based on the results of meat inspections. However, as the current criteria for providing administrative information often results in delays in providing information to producers, novel criteria are needed. Time series models were developed to monitor autocorrelations between data and lags using data collected from 84 producers at the Higashi-Mokoto Meat Inspection Center between April 2003 and November 2015. The two criteria were quantitatively compared using the sign test for the ability to rapidly detect farm-level outbreaks. Overall, the time series models based on an autoexponentially regressed zero-inflated negative binomial distribution with 60th percentile cumulative distribution function of the model detected outbreaks earlier more frequently than the current criteria (90.5%, 276/305, ppart model with autoexponential regression can adequately deal with data involving an excessive number of zeros and that the novel criteria overcome disadvantages of the current criteria to provide an earlier indication of increases in the rate of echinococcosis. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  20. Price Forecasting of Electricity Markets in the Presence of a High Penetration of Wind Power Generators

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saber Talari

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Price forecasting plays a vital role in the day-ahead markets. Once sellers and buyers access an accurate price forecasting, managing the economic risk can be conducted appropriately through offering or bidding suitable prices. In networks with high wind power penetration, the electricity price is influenced by wind energy; therefore, price forecasting can be more complicated. This paper proposes a novel hybrid approach for price forecasting of day-ahead markets, with high penetration of wind generators based on Wavelet transform, bivariate Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA method and Radial Basis Function Neural Network (RBFN. To this end, a weighted time series for wind dominated power systems is calculated and added to a bivariate ARIMA model along with the price time series. Moreover, RBFN is applied as a tool to correct the estimation error, and particle swarm optimization (PSO is used to optimize the structure and adapt the RBFN to the particular training set. This method is evaluated on the Spanish electricity market, which shows the efficiency of this approach. This method has less error compared with other methods especially when it considers the effects of large-scale wind generators.

  1. Flavour development in pork. Influence of flavour precursor concentrations in longissimus dorsi from pigs with different raw meat qualities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Meinert, Lene; Tikk, Kaja; Tikk, Meelis

    2009-01-01

    Flavour development and overall eating quality of pan-fried pork chops of longissimus dorsi from eight different raw meat qualities aged for 4 and IS days were assessed by a trained sensory panel. The raw meat qualities were obtained through combinations of strategic feeding/fasting (control vs...... the differences in sensory perception of the pan-fried pork chops. Overall, the differences were small....

  2. Projected economic losses due to vector and vector-borne parasitic diseases in livestock of India and its significance in implementing the concept of integrated practices for vector management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. W. Narladkar

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Broadly, species of arthropods infesting livestock are grouped into flies (biting and non-biting, fleas, lice (biting and sucking, ticks (soft and hard, and mites (burrowing, non-burrowing, and follicular. Among which, biting and non-biting flies and ticks are the potent vectors for many bacterial, viral, rickettsial, and protozoan diseases. Vectors of livestock are having economic significance on three points (1 direct losses from their bite and annoyance, worries, and psychological disturbances produced during the act of biting and feeding, (2 diseases they transmit, and (3 expenditure incurred for their control. Flies such as Culicoides spp. and Musca spp. and various species of hard ticks play important role in disease transmission in addition to their direct effects. For control of vectors, recent concept of integrated pest management (IPM provides the best solution and also addresses the problems related to acaricide resistance and environmental protection from hazardous chemicals. However, to successfully implement the concept of IPM, for each vector species, estimation of two monitory benchmarks, i.e., economic injury level (EIL and economic threshold level (ETL is essential prerequisite. For many vector species and under several circumstances, estimation of EIL and ETL appears to be difficult. Under such scenario, although may not be exact, an approximate estimate can be accrued by taking into account several criteria such as percent prevalence of vectors in a geographical area, percent losses produced, total livestock population, and current prices of livestock products such as milk, meat, and wool. Method for approximate estimation is first time described and elaborated in the present review article.

  3. Projected economic losses due to vector and vector-borne parasitic diseases in livestock of India and its significance in implementing the concept of integrated practices for vector management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Narladkar, B. W.

    2018-01-01

    Broadly, species of arthropods infesting livestock are grouped into flies (biting and non-biting), fleas, lice (biting and sucking), ticks (soft and hard), and mites (burrowing, non-burrowing, and follicular). Among which, biting and non-biting flies and ticks are the potent vectors for many bacterial, viral, rickettsial, and protozoan diseases. Vectors of livestock are having economic significance on three points (1) direct losses from their bite and annoyance, worries, and psychological disturbances produced during the act of biting and feeding, (2) diseases they transmit, and (3) expenditure incurred for their control. Flies such as Culicoides spp. and Musca spp. and various species of hard ticks play important role in disease transmission in addition to their direct effects. For control of vectors, recent concept of integrated pest management (IPM) provides the best solution and also addresses the problems related to acaricide resistance and environmental protection from hazardous chemicals. However, to successfully implement the concept of IPM, for each vector species, estimation of two monitory benchmarks, i.e., economic injury level (EIL) and economic threshold level (ETL) is essential prerequisite. For many vector species and under several circumstances, estimation of EIL and ETL appears to be difficult. Under such scenario, although may not be exact, an approximate estimate can be accrued by taking into account several criteria such as percent prevalence of vectors in a geographical area, percent losses produced, total livestock population, and current prices of livestock products such as milk, meat, and wool. Method for approximate estimation is first time described and elaborated in the present review article. PMID:29657396

  4. Using Analysis Increments (AI) to Estimate and Correct Systematic Errors in the Global Forecast System (GFS) Online

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhargava, K.; Kalnay, E.; Carton, J.; Yang, F.

    2017-12-01

    Systematic forecast errors, arising from model deficiencies, form a significant portion of the total forecast error in weather prediction models like the Global Forecast System (GFS). While much effort has been expended to improve models, substantial model error remains. The aim here is to (i) estimate the model deficiencies in the GFS that lead to systematic forecast errors, (ii) implement an online correction (i.e., within the model) scheme to correct GFS following the methodology of Danforth et al. [2007] and Danforth and Kalnay [2008, GRL]. Analysis Increments represent the corrections that new observations make on, in this case, the 6-hr forecast in the analysis cycle. Model bias corrections are estimated from the time average of the analysis increments divided by 6-hr, assuming that initial model errors grow linearly and first ignoring the impact of observation bias. During 2012-2016, seasonal means of the 6-hr model bias are generally robust despite changes in model resolution and data assimilation systems, and their broad continental scales explain their insensitivity to model resolution. The daily bias dominates the sub-monthly analysis increments and consists primarily of diurnal and semidiurnal components, also requiring a low dimensional correction. Analysis increments in 2015 and 2016 are reduced over oceans, which is attributed to improvements in the specification of the SSTs. These results encourage application of online correction, as suggested by Danforth and Kalnay, for mean, seasonal and diurnal and semidiurnal model biases in GFS to reduce both systematic and random errors. As the error growth in the short-term is still linear, estimated model bias corrections can be added as a forcing term in the model tendency equation to correct online. Preliminary experiments with GFS, correcting temperature and specific humidity online show reduction in model bias in 6-hr forecast. This approach can then be used to guide and optimize the design of sub

  5. Repeat-aware modeling and correction of short read errors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Xiao; Aluru, Srinivas; Dorman, Karin S

    2011-02-15

    High-throughput short read sequencing is revolutionizing genomics and systems biology research by enabling cost-effective deep coverage sequencing of genomes and transcriptomes. Error detection and correction are crucial to many short read sequencing applications including de novo genome sequencing, genome resequencing, and digital gene expression analysis. Short read error detection is typically carried out by counting the observed frequencies of kmers in reads and validating those with frequencies exceeding a threshold. In case of genomes with high repeat content, an erroneous kmer may be frequently observed if it has few nucleotide differences with valid kmers with multiple occurrences in the genome. Error detection and correction were mostly applied to genomes with low repeat content and this remains a challenging problem for genomes with high repeat content. We develop a statistical model and a computational method for error detection and correction in the presence of genomic repeats. We propose a method to infer genomic frequencies of kmers from their observed frequencies by analyzing the misread relationships among observed kmers. We also propose a method to estimate the threshold useful for validating kmers whose estimated genomic frequency exceeds the threshold. We demonstrate that superior error detection is achieved using these methods. Furthermore, we break away from the common assumption of uniformly distributed errors within a read, and provide a framework to model position-dependent error occurrence frequencies common to many short read platforms. Lastly, we achieve better error correction in genomes with high repeat content. The software is implemented in C++ and is freely available under GNU GPL3 license and Boost Software V1.0 license at "http://aluru-sun.ece.iastate.edu/doku.php?id = redeem". We introduce a statistical framework to model sequencing errors in next-generation reads, which led to promising results in detecting and correcting errors

  6. Prediction of pork loin quality using online computer vision system and artificial intelligence model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Xin; Young, Jennifer; Liu, Jeng-Hung; Newman, David

    2018-06-01

    The objective of this project was to develop a computer vision system (CVS) for objective measurement of pork loin under industry speed requirement. Color images of pork loin samples were acquired using a CVS. Subjective color and marbling scores were determined according to the National Pork Board standards by a trained evaluator. Instrument color measurement and crude fat percentage were used as control measurements. Image features (18 color features; 1 marbling feature; 88 texture features) were extracted from whole pork loin color images. Artificial intelligence prediction model (support vector machine) was established for pork color and marbling quality grades. The results showed that CVS with support vector machine modeling reached the highest prediction accuracy of 92.5% for measured pork color score and 75.0% for measured pork marbling score. This research shows that the proposed artificial intelligence prediction model with CVS can provide an effective tool for predicting color and marbling in the pork industry at online speeds. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Effect of storage and cooking on the fatty acid profile of omega-3 enriched eggs and pork meat marketed in Belgium.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Douny, Caroline; El Khoury, Rawad; Delmelle, Julien; Brose, François; Degand, Guy; Moula, Nassim; Farnir, Frédéric; Clinquart, Antoine; Maghuin-Rogister, Guy; Scippo, Marie-Louise

    2015-03-01

    The fatty acids (FA) profile was determined in n-3 enriched (Columbus™) Belgian eggs and pork in order to evaluate to what extent the n-3 fatty acids, which are very sensitive to oxidation, are resistant to storage or cooking. In standard eggs or pork, no change of the fatty acid profile was observed after storage or cooking without culinary fat, as well as in Columbus™ eggs and pork after storage. Some cooking processes (eggs in custard and meat in oven) induced a slight significant loss of n-3 fatty acids in Columbus™ eggs or pork (11.1% in fat from eggs cooked in custard vs. 15.3% in raw Columbus™ eggs and 11.0% in fat from oven cooked meat vs. 11.6% in raw Columbus™ meat). As expected, when Columbus™ pork is cooked with culinary fat, its fatty acid profile is modified according to the nature of the fat used.

  8. Detecting a currency’s dominance using multivariate time series analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Syahidah Yusoff, Nur; Sharif, Shamshuritawati

    2017-09-01

    A currency exchange rate is the price of one country’s currency in terms of another country’s currency. There are four different prices; opening, closing, highest, and lowest can be achieved from daily trading activities. In the past, a lot of studies have been carried out by using closing price only. However, those four prices are interrelated to each other. Thus, the multivariate time series can provide more information than univariate time series. Therefore, the enthusiasm of this paper is to compare the results of two different approaches, which are mean vector and Escoufier’s RV coefficient in constructing similarity matrices of 20 world currencies. Consequently, both matrices are used to substitute the correlation matrix required by network topology. With the help of degree centrality measure, we can detect the currency’s dominance for both networks. The pros and cons for both approaches will be presented at the end of this paper.

  9. Price and income elasticities of crude oil import demand in South Africa: A cointegration analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ziramba, Emmanuel

    2010-01-01

    This paper examines the demand for imported crude oil in South Africa as a function of real income and the price of crude oil over the period 1980-2006. We carried out the Johansen co integration multivariate analysis to determine the long-run income and price elasticities. A unique long-run cointegration relationship exists between crude oil imports and the explanatory variables. The short-run dynamics are estimated by specifying a general error correction model. The estimated long-run price and income elasticities of -0.147 and 0.429 suggest that import demand for crude oil is price and income inelastic. There is also evidence of unidirectional long-run causality running from real GDP to crude oil imports. - Research Highlights: →The paper examines the demand for imported crude oil in South Africa over the period 1980-2006. → The estimated long-run price and income elasticities are -0.147 and 0.429, respectively. → There is evidence of unidirectional long-run causality running from real GDP to crude oil imports.

  10. Price and income elasticities of crude oil import demand in South Africa: A cointegration analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ziramba, Emmanuel, E-mail: zirame@unisa.ac.z [Department of Economics, University of South Africa, P.O Box 392, Unisa 0003 (South Africa)

    2010-12-15

    This paper examines the demand for imported crude oil in South Africa as a function of real income and the price of crude oil over the period 1980-2006. We carried out the Johansen co integration multivariate analysis to determine the long-run income and price elasticities. A unique long-run cointegration relationship exists between crude oil imports and the explanatory variables. The short-run dynamics are estimated by specifying a general error correction model. The estimated long-run price and income elasticities of -0.147 and 0.429 suggest that import demand for crude oil is price and income inelastic. There is also evidence of unidirectional long-run causality running from real GDP to crude oil imports. - Research Highlights: {yields}The paper examines the demand for imported crude oil in South Africa over the period 1980-2006. {yields} The estimated long-run price and income elasticities are -0.147 and 0.429, respectively. {yields} There is evidence of unidirectional long-run causality running from real GDP to crude oil imports.

  11. Modeling financial time series with S-plus

    CERN Document Server

    Zivot, Eric

    2003-01-01

    The field of financial econometrics has exploded over the last decade This book represents an integration of theory, methods, and examples using the S-PLUS statistical modeling language and the S+FinMetrics module to facilitate the practice of financial econometrics This is the first book to show the power of S-PLUS for the analysis of time series data It is written for researchers and practitioners in the finance industry, academic researchers in economics and finance, and advanced MBA and graduate students in economics and finance Readers are assumed to have a basic knowledge of S-PLUS and a solid grounding in basic statistics and time series concepts Eric Zivot is an associate professor and Gary Waterman Distinguished Scholar in the Economics Department at the University of Washington, and is co-director of the nascent Professional Master's Program in Computational Finance He regularly teaches courses on econometric theory, financial econometrics and time series econometrics, and is the recipient of the He...

  12. Frequency of hepatitis E virus, rotavirus and porcine enteric calicivirus at various stages of pork carcass processing in two pork processing plants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Tineke H; Muehlhauser, Victoria

    2017-10-16

    Hepatitis E virus (HEV), rotavirus (RV), and porcine enteric calicivirus (PEC) infections are common in swine and raises concerns about the potential for zoonotic transmission through undercooked meat products. Enteric viruses can potentially contaminate carcasses during meat processing operations. There is a lack of information on the prevalence and control of enteric viruses in the pork processing chain. This study compared the incidence and levels of contamination of hog carcasses with HEV, RV and PEC at different stages of the dressing process. A total of 1000 swabs were collected from 2 pork processing plants on 10 separate occasions over the span of a year. The samples were obtained from random sites on hog carcasses at 4 dressing stages (plant A: bleeding, dehairing, pasteurization, and evisceration; plant B: bleeding, skinning, evisceration, and washing) and from meat cuts. Numbers of genome copies (gc) of HEV, RV and PEC were determined by RT-qPCR. RV and PEC were detected in 100%, and 18% of samples, respectively, after bleeding for plant A and in 98%, and 36% of samples, respectively, after bleeding for plant B. After evisceration, RV and PEC were detected in 21% and 3% of samples, respectively, for plant A and in 1%, and 0% of samples, respectively for plant B. RV and PEC were detected on 1%, and 5% of pork cuts, respectively, for plant A and on 0%, and 0% of pork cuts, respectively, for plant B. HEV was not detected in any pork carcass or retail pork samples from plants A or B. The frequency of PEC and RV on pork is progressively reduced along the pork processing chain but the viruses were not completely eliminated. The findings suggest that consumers could be at risk when consuming undercooked meat contaminated with pathogenic enteric viruses. Crown Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  13. Oil prices and the rise and fall of the U.S. real exchange rate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Amano, R.A.; Norden, S. van.

    1993-12-01

    It is examined whether a link exists between oil price shocks and the U.S. real effective exchange rate. Data used for the study are described and their time series properties and the long-run explanatory power of oil prices for the real exchange rate are examined. Apparent causal relationships between exchange rates and oil prices are examined. An unrestricted error correction model is reduced until an error correction model with reasonable properties is derived. Results show that the two variables appear to be cointegrated and that causality runs from oil prices to the exchange rate and not vice-versa. The single equation error correction model linking these two variables is stable and captures much of the in- and out-of-sample movement in the exchange rate in dynamic simulation. Tests are presented to show that the error correction model has significant post-sample predictive ability for both the size and sign of changes in the real effective exchange rate. The results suggest that oil prices may have been the dominant source of persistant real exchange rate shocks over the post-Bretton Woods period and that energy prices may have important implications for future work on exchange rate behaviour. 61 refs., 3 figs., 7 tabs

  14. High-order fuzzy time-series based on multi-period adaptation model for forecasting stock markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Tai-Liang; Cheng, Ching-Hsue; Teoh, Hia-Jong

    2008-02-01

    Stock investors usually make their short-term investment decisions according to recent stock information such as the late market news, technical analysis reports, and price fluctuations. To reflect these short-term factors which impact stock price, this paper proposes a comprehensive fuzzy time-series, which factors linear relationships between recent periods of stock prices and fuzzy logical relationships (nonlinear relationships) mined from time-series into forecasting processes. In empirical analysis, the TAIEX (Taiwan Stock Exchange Capitalization Weighted Stock Index) and HSI (Heng Seng Index) are employed as experimental datasets, and four recent fuzzy time-series models, Chen’s (1996), Yu’s (2005), Cheng’s (2006) and Chen’s (2007), are used as comparison models. Besides, to compare with conventional statistic method, the method of least squares is utilized to estimate the auto-regressive models of the testing periods within the databases. From analysis results, the performance comparisons indicate that the multi-period adaptation model, proposed in this paper, can effectively improve the forecasting performance of conventional fuzzy time-series models which only factor fuzzy logical relationships in forecasting processes. From the empirical study, the traditional statistic method and the proposed model both reveal that stock price patterns in the Taiwan stock and Hong Kong stock markets are short-term.

  15. Effect of Meat Price on Race and Gender Disparities in Obesity, Mortality and Quality of Life in the US: A Model-Based Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pitt, Allison; Bendavid, Eran

    2017-01-01

    There are large differences in the burden and health implications of obesity by race and gender in the US. It is unclear to what extent policies modifying caloric consumption change the distribution of the burden of obesity and related health outcomes. Meat is a large component of the American diet. We investigate how changing meat prices (that may result from policies or from exogenous factors that reduce supply) might impact the burden of obesity by race and gender. We construct a microsimulation model that evaluates the 15-year body-mass index (BMI) and mortality impact of changes in meat price (5, 10, 25, and 50% increase) in the US adult population stratified by age, gender, race, and BMI. Under each price change evaluated, relative to the status quo, white males, black males, and black females are expected to realize more dramatic reduction in 2030 obesity prevalence than white females. Life expectancy gains are also projected to differ by subpopulation, with black males far less likely to benefit from an increase in meat prices than other groups. Changing meat prices has considerable potential to affect population health differently by race and gender. In designing interventions that alter the price of foods to consumers, it is not sufficient to assess health effects based solely on the population as a whole, since differential effects across subpopulations may be substantial.

  16. Effect of Meat Price on Race and Gender Disparities in Obesity, Mortality and Quality of Life in the US: A Model-Based Analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Allison Pitt

    Full Text Available There are large differences in the burden and health implications of obesity by race and gender in the US. It is unclear to what extent policies modifying caloric consumption change the distribution of the burden of obesity and related health outcomes. Meat is a large component of the American diet. We investigate how changing meat prices (that may result from policies or from exogenous factors that reduce supply might impact the burden of obesity by race and gender.We construct a microsimulation model that evaluates the 15-year body-mass index (BMI and mortality impact of changes in meat price (5, 10, 25, and 50% increase in the US adult population stratified by age, gender, race, and BMI.Under each price change evaluated, relative to the status quo, white males, black males, and black females are expected to realize more dramatic reduction in 2030 obesity prevalence than white females. Life expectancy gains are also projected to differ by subpopulation, with black males far less likely to benefit from an increase in meat prices than other groups.Changing meat prices has considerable potential to affect population health differently by race and gender. In designing interventions that alter the price of foods to consumers, it is not sufficient to assess health effects based solely on the population as a whole, since differential effects across subpopulations may be substantial.

  17. Simulating transmission and control of Taenia solium infections using a reed-frost stochastic model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kyvsgaard, Niels Chr.; Johansen, Maria Vang; Carabin, Hélène

    2007-01-01

    occur between hosts and that hosts can be either susceptible, infected or ‘recovered and presumed immune'. Transmission between humans and pigs is modelled as susceptible roaming pigs scavenging on human faeces infected with T. solium eggs. Transmission from pigs to humans is modelled as susceptible...... humans eating under-cooked pork meat harbouring T. solium metacestodes. Deterministic models of each scenario were first run, followed by stochastic versions of the models to assess the likelihood of infection elimination in the small population modelled. The effects of three groups of interventions were...... investigated using the model: (i) interventions affecting the transmission parameters such as use of latrines, meat inspection, and cooking habits; (ii) routine interventions including rapid detection and treatment of human carriers or pig vaccination; and (iii) treatment interventions of either humans or pigs...

  18. Evaluation of quality parameters of sausages made with rabbit meat, lamb and pork, added with wheat fiber

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jorge E. Cobos-Velazsco

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The difference among animal species with which chorizo is made, resulting in changes in the techno-functional properties that affect the process and acceptance of product. Sausages made with meat from rabbit, pork and lamb sources were added with wheat fiber and dried at water activity of 0.94. The moisture content was not affected by the source, but it was reduced when fiber was added. The sausages without fiber showed a lower fat content than those samples with fiber. They can be considered stable at room temperature due to their acidity and drying degree. Regarding to the weight loss and diameter of the sausage parameters, there were no differences between source types, however, a reduction of diameter was observed with the addition of fiber. Sausages with lamb meat and fiber showed an increase in oxidation. Higher values of luminosity were obtained in pork sausages. The most preferred samples were the pork meat sausages with the presence of fiber.

  19. Influence of beer marinades on the reduction of carcinogenic heterocyclic aromatic amines in charcoal-grilled pork meat.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Viegas, Olga; Moreira, Patrícia S; Ferreira, Isabel M P L V O

    2015-01-01

    The effect of beer marinades on the formation of heterocyclic aromatic amines (HAs) was examined in charcoal-grilled pork. Pilsner, non-alcoholic pilsner and black beers (coded respectively as PB, P0B and BB) were assayed and unmarinated samples cooked under similar conditions provided reference HAs levels. Two thermic (PhIP and 4,8-DiMeIQx) and three pyrolytic HAs (Trp-P-1, AαC, MeAαC) were quantified in unmarinated meat samples. Marinating meat in beer resulted in a significant decrease of PhIP, Trp-P-1 and AαC (p beers reduced total HA formation in charcoal-grilled pork, black beer being the most efficient with a level of 90% inhibition. A strong positive correlation was observed between the inhibitory effect of beer on total HA formation and their antioxidant activity. Beer marinades mitigate the impact of consumption of well-done grilled pork meat reducing the formation of cooking carcinogens.

  20. Lag space estimation in time series modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Goutte, Cyril

    1997-01-01

    The purpose of this article is to investigate some techniques for finding the relevant lag-space, i.e. input information, for time series modelling. This is an important aspect of time series modelling, as it conditions the design of the model through the regressor vector a.k.a. the input layer...

  1. Time series analysis of temporal networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sikdar, Sandipan; Ganguly, Niloy; Mukherjee, Animesh

    2016-01-01

    A common but an important feature of all real-world networks is that they are temporal in nature, i.e., the network structure changes over time. Due to this dynamic nature, it becomes difficult to propose suitable growth models that can explain the various important characteristic properties of these networks. In fact, in many application oriented studies only knowing these properties is sufficient. For instance, if one wishes to launch a targeted attack on a network, this can be done even without the knowledge of the full network structure; rather an estimate of some of the properties is sufficient enough to launch the attack. We, in this paper show that even if the network structure at a future time point is not available one can still manage to estimate its properties. We propose a novel method to map a temporal network to a set of time series instances, analyze them and using a standard forecast model of time series, try to predict the properties of a temporal network at a later time instance. To our aim, we consider eight properties such as number of active nodes, average degree, clustering coefficient etc. and apply our prediction framework on them. We mainly focus on the temporal network of human face-to-face contacts and observe that it represents a stochastic process with memory that can be modeled as Auto-Regressive-Integrated-Moving-Average (ARIMA). We use cross validation techniques to find the percentage accuracy of our predictions. An important observation is that the frequency domain properties of the time series obtained from spectrogram analysis could be used to refine the prediction framework by identifying beforehand the cases where the error in prediction is likely to be high. This leads to an improvement of 7.96% (for error level ≤20%) in prediction accuracy on an average across all datasets. As an application we show how such prediction scheme can be used to launch targeted attacks on temporal networks. Contribution to the Topical Issue

  2. [Modelling the effect of local climatic variability on dengue transmission in Medellin (Colombia) by means of time series analysis].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rúa-Uribe, Guillermo L; Suárez-Acosta, Carolina; Chauca, José; Ventosilla, Palmira; Almanza, Rita

    2013-09-01

    Dengue fever is a major impact on public health vector-borne disease, and its transmission is influenced by entomological, sociocultural and economic factors. Additionally, climate variability plays an important role in the transmission dynamics. A large scientific consensus has indicated that the strong association between climatic variables and disease could be used to develop models to explain the incidence of the disease. To develop a model that provides a better understanding of dengue transmission dynamics in Medellin and predicts increases in the incidence of the disease. The incidence of dengue fever was used as dependent variable, and weekly climatic factors (maximum, mean and minimum temperature, relative humidity and precipitation) as independent variables. Expert Modeler was used to develop a model to better explain the behavior of the disease. Climatic variables with significant association to the dependent variable were selected through ARIMA models. The model explains 34% of observed variability. Precipitation was the climatic variable showing statistically significant association with the incidence of dengue fever, but with a 20 weeks delay. In Medellin, the transmission of dengue fever was influenced by climate variability, especially precipitation. The strong association dengue fever/precipitation allowed the construction of a model to help understand dengue transmission dynamics. This information will be useful to develop appropriate and timely strategies for dengue control.

  3. Analysis on Dynamic Transmission Accuracy for RV Reducer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhang Fengshou

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available By taking rotate vector (RV reducer as the research object, the factors affecting the transmission accuracy are studied, including the machining errors of the main parts, assembly errors, clearance, micro-displacement, gear mesh stiffness and damping, bearing stiffness. Based on Newton second law, the transmission error mathematical model of RV reducer is set up. Then, the RV reducer transmission error curve is achieved by solving the mathematical model using the Runge-Kutta methods under the combined action of various error factors. Through the analysis of RV reducer transmission test, it can be found that there are similar variation trend and frequency components compared the theoretical research and experimental result. The presented method is useful to the research on dynamic transmission accuracy of RV reducer, and also applies to research the transmission accuracy of other cycloid drive systems.

  4. Time domain series system definition and gear set reliability modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xie, Liyang; Wu, Ningxiang; Qian, Wenxue

    2016-01-01

    Time-dependent multi-configuration is a typical feature for mechanical systems such as gear trains and chain drives. As a series system, a gear train is distinct from a traditional series system, such as a chain, in load transmission path, system-component relationship, system functioning manner, as well as time-dependent system configuration. Firstly, the present paper defines time-domain series system to which the traditional series system reliability model is not adequate. Then, system specific reliability modeling technique is proposed for gear sets, including component (tooth) and subsystem (tooth-pair) load history description, material priori/posterior strength expression, time-dependent and system specific load-strength interference analysis, as well as statistically dependent failure events treatment. Consequently, several system reliability models are developed for gear sets with different tooth numbers in the scenario of tooth root material ultimate tensile strength failure. The application of the models is discussed in the last part, and the differences between the system specific reliability model and the traditional series system reliability model are illustrated by virtue of several numerical examples. - Highlights: • A new type of series system, i.e. time-domain multi-configuration series system is defined, that is of great significance to reliability modeling. • Multi-level statistical analysis based reliability modeling method is presented for gear transmission system. • Several system specific reliability models are established for gear set reliability estimation. • The differences between the traditional series system reliability model and the new model are illustrated.

  5. Error Concealment Method Based on Motion Vector Prediction Using Particle Filters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Hrusovsky

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available Video transmitted over unreliable environment, such as wireless channel or in generally any network with unreliable transport protocol, is facing the losses of video packets due to network congestion and different kind of noises. The problem is becoming more important using highly effective video codecs. Visual quality degradation could propagate into subsequent frames due to redundancy elimination in order to obtain high compression ratio. Since the video stream transmission in real time is limited by transmission channel delay, it is not possible to retransmit all faulty or lost packets. It is therefore inevitable to conceal these defects. To reduce the undesirable effects of information losses, the lost data is usually estimated from the received data, which is generally known as error concealment problem. This paper discusses packet loss modeling in order to simulate losses during video transmission, packet losses analysis and their impacts on the motion vectors losses.

  6. Antihypertensive activity of peptides identified in the in vitro gastrointestinal digest of pork meat.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Escudero, Elizabeth; Toldrá, Fidel; Sentandreu, Miguel Angel; Nishimura, Hitoshi; Arihara, Keizo

    2012-07-01

    This study investigated the in vivo antihypertensive activity of three novel peptides identified in the in vitro digest of pork meat. These peptides were RPR, KAPVA and PTPVP and all of them showed significant antihypertensive activity after oral administration to spontaneously hypertensive rats, RPR being the peptide with the greatest in vivo activity. To our knowledge, this is the first report showing the in vivo antihypertensive action of the three peptides from nebulin (RPR) and titin (KAPVA and PTPVP), thus confirming their reported in vitro angiotensin I-converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitory activity. These findings suggest that pork meat could constitute a source of bioactive constituents that could be utilized in functional foods or nutraceuticals. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. A hybrid wavelet de-noising and Rank-Set Pair Analysis approach for forecasting hydro-meteorological time series.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Dong; Borthwick, Alistair G; He, Handan; Wang, Yuankun; Zhu, Jieyu; Lu, Yuan; Xu, Pengcheng; Zeng, Xiankui; Wu, Jichun; Wang, Lachun; Zou, Xinqing; Liu, Jiufu; Zou, Ying; He, Ruimin

    2018-01-01

    Accurate, fast forecasting of hydro-meteorological time series is presently a major challenge in drought and flood mitigation. This paper proposes a hybrid approach, wavelet de-noising (WD) and Rank-Set Pair Analysis (RSPA), that takes full advantage of a combination of the two approaches to improve forecasts of hydro-meteorological time series. WD allows decomposition and reconstruction of a time series by the wavelet transform, and hence separation of the noise from the original series. RSPA, a more reliable and efficient version of Set Pair Analysis, is integrated with WD to form the hybrid WD-RSPA approach. Two types of hydro-meteorological data sets with different characteristics and different levels of human influences at some representative stations are used to illustrate the WD-RSPA approach. The approach is also compared to three other generic methods: the conventional Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) method, Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) (BP-error Back Propagation, MLP-Multilayer Perceptron and RBF-Radial Basis Function), and RSPA alone. Nine error metrics are used to evaluate the model performance. Compared to three other generic methods, the results generated by WD-REPA model presented invariably smaller error measures which means the forecasting capability of the WD-REPA model is better than other models. The results show that WD-RSPA is accurate, feasible, and effective. In particular, WD-RSPA is found to be the best among the various generic methods compared in this paper, even when the extreme events are included within a time series. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  8. Detection of Yersinia Enterocolitica Species in Pig Tonsils and Raw Pork Meat by the Real-Time Pcr and Culture Methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stachelska, M A

    2017-09-26

    The aim of the present study was to establish a rapid and accurate real-time PCR method to detect pathogenic Yersinia enterocolitica in pork. Yersinia enterocolitica is considered to be a crucial zoonosis, which can provoke diseases both in humans and animals. The classical culture methods designated to detect Y. enterocolitica species in food matrices are often very time-consuming. The chromosomal locus _tag CH49_3099 gene, that appears in pathogenic Y. enterocolitica strains, was applied as DNA target for the 5' nuclease PCR protocol. The probe was labelled at the 5' end with the fluorescent reporter dye (FAM) and at the 3' end with the quencher dye (TAMRA). The real-time PCR cycling parameters included 41 cycles. A Ct value which reached a value higher than 40 constituted a negative result. The developed for the needs of this study qualitative real-time PCR method appeared to give very specific and reliable results. The detection rate of locus _tag CH49_3099 - positive Y. enterocolitica in 150 pig tonsils was 85 % and 32 % with PCR and culture methods, respectively. Both the Real-time PCR results and culture method results were obtained from material that was enriched during overnight incubation. The subject of the study were also raw pork meat samples. Among 80 samples examined, 7 ones were positive when real-time PCR was applied, and 6 ones were positive when classical culture method was applied. The application of molecular techniques based on the analysis of DNA sequences such as the Real-time PCR enables to detect this pathogenic bacteria very rapidly and with higher specificity, sensitivity and reliability in comparison to classical culture methods.

  9. Household demand elasticities for meat products in Uruguay

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lanfranco, B. A.; Rava, C.

    2014-06-01

    This article analyzed the demand for meats at household level over the past decade in Uruguay, a country that exhibits a very high per capita consumption of these products. In particular, the consumption of beef is one of the highest in the world and only comparable to Argentina. The analysis involved a two-step estimation of an incomplete system of censored demand equations using household data from the last available national income and expenditure survey (2005/06). Thirteen meat products were included in the analysis: six broad beef products (de boned hindquarter cuts, bone-in hindquarter cuts, ground beef, rib plate, bone-in forequarter cuts, and other beef cuts), four products from other meats (sheep, pork, poultry, and fish), and three generic mixed-meat products. A complete set of short-term income, own-price and cross-price elasticities were computed and reported along with their 90% confidence intervals (CI). The results were consistent with both economic theory and empirical evidence as well as with the expected behavior, considering the relevance of these products, particularly beef, in the diet of Uruguayan consumers. All meat items were necessary goods and evidenced income-inelastic responses, which was expected given their high consumption level. All meats behaved as normal goods although exhibiting different reactions to changes in price. In general, beef cuts were more price elastic than other more broadly defined products. The more specific and dis aggregated the meat product the higher its corresponding direct price elasticity. The complement/substitute relationships found in this study were highly depended on the specific product combinations. (Author)

  10. Household demand elasticities for meat products in Uruguay

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bruno A. Lanfranco

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This article analyzed the demand for meats at household level over the past decade in Uruguay, a country that exhibits a very high per capita consumption of these products. In particular, the consumption of beef is one of the highest in the world and only comparable to Argentina. The analysis involved a two-step estimation of an incomplete system of censored demand equations using household data from the last available national income and expenditure survey (2005/06. Thirteen meat products were included in the analysis: six broad beef products (deboned hindquarter cuts, bone-in hindquarter cuts, ground beef, rib plate, bone-in forequarter cuts, and other beef cuts, four products from other meats (sheep, pork, poultry, and fish, and three generic mixed-meat products. A complete set of short-term income, own-price and cross-price elasticities were computed and reported along with their 90% confidence intervals (CI. The results were consistent with both economic theory and empirical evidence as well as with the expected behavior, considering the relevance of these products, particularly beef, in the diet of Uruguayan consumers. All meat items were necessary goods and evidenced income-inelastic responses, which was expected given their high consumption level. All meats behaved as normal goods although exhibiting different reactions to changes in price. In general, beef cuts were more price elastic than other more broadly defined products. The more specific and disaggregated the meat product the higher its corresponding direct price elasticity. The complement/substitute relationships found in this study were highly depended on the specific product combinations.

  11. ARCH Models Efficiency Evaluation in Prediction and Poultry Price Process Formation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Behzad Fakari Sardehae

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Poultry is an important commodity for household consumption. In recent years, price fluctuation for this commodity has caused an uncertain condition for consumers and poultry prices over the past two years has changed a lot. This has caused many changes and uncertainty in a purchase decision. Analysis of changes and volatility modeling can be a great help to predict the poultry prices and great facilities in creating appropriate policies in future. The prices of staples such as poultry consumption basket is highly variable because much of the protein is necessary for daily energy are supplied in this way to households. So when the price of chicken which has been changed over the past two years and has always been in the press and media attention, has been selected in this study. Fluctuations in price of chicken have caused a surge in consumer expectations and contributed in volatility of chicken price. Materials and Methods: In this study ARCH models have been used for daily price of poultry of Iran’s market and this was investigated for2012-13and2013-14.BecauseARCH models can model the impact of heterogeneous variance over time in time series data then the variance of time series, which is limited in time, has no time limit. Many time series are more complex than a linear patterns, thus, non-linear models are of particular importance in Economic Sciences and Econometrics. Accordingly, Engle presented that ARCH model can model the heterogeneous variance components of the error term. That is a disturbing element and modeling can help to examine and explore the relationship between the components can be found disturbing. Basically, these models fit the data to a cluster and periodic oscillations with high volatility and low volatility associated with the period. In this study, we used several different models like ARCH, GARCH, IGARCH, and TGARCH. The distribution of the error term of the model also followt-student distribution

  12. CH4 and N2O emissions embodied in international trade of meat

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Caro, Dario; Caldeira, Ken; LoPresti, Anna; Davis, Steven J; Bastianoni, Simone

    2014-01-01

    Although previous studies have quantified carbon dioxide emissions embodied in products traded internationally, there has been limited attention to other greenhouse gases such as methane (CH 4 ) and nitrous oxide (N 2 O). Following IPCC guidelines, we estimate non-CO 2 emissions from beef, pork and chicken produced in 237 countries over the period 1990–2010, and assign these emissions to the country where the meat is ultimately consumed. We find that, between 1990 and 2010, an average of 32.8 Mt CO 2 -eq emissions (using 100 year global warming potentials) are embodied in beef, pork and chicken traded internationally. Further, over the 20 year period, the quantity of CO 2 -eq emissions embodied in traded meat increased by 19%. The largest trade flows of emissions embodied in meat were from Brazil and Argentina to Russia (2.8 and 1.4 Mt of CO 2 -eq, respectively). Trade flows within the European region are also substantial: beef and pork exported from France embodied 3.3 Mt and 0.4 Mt of CO 2 -eq, respectively. Emissions factor of meat production (i.e. CO 2 -eq emissions per kg of meat) produced depend on ambient temperature, development level, livestock category (e.g. cattle, pork, and chicken) and livestock management practices. Thus, trade may result in an overall increase of GHG emissions when meat-consuming countries import meat from countries with a greater emissions intensity of meat production rather than producing the meat domestically. Comparing the emissions intensity of meat production of trading partners, we assess trade flows according to whether they tend to reduce or increase global emissions from meat production. (letter)

  13. Effect of Tara (Caesalpinia spinosa Pod Powder on the Oxidation and Colour Stability of Pork Meat Batter During Chilled Storage

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Monika Skowyra

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The eff ect of dried pods of Caesalpinia spinosa, known as tara, on pH, cooking loss, lipid oxidation, colour stability and texture of model meat systems stored at 4 °C for 21 days was investigated. Tara pod powder showing a potential antioxidant activity was added at 0.02, 0.04 and 0.08 % (by mass directly to the pork batt er and compared with a synthetic antioxidant, butylated hydroxyanisole (BHA and control (no added antioxidants. The addition of tara pod powder at 0.02 % was as effective as BHA (0.02 % in retarding lipid oxidation in pork products during storage. Results showed that redness increased after the addition of tara pod powder. Specifically, 0.02 % of tara pod powder was effective in keeping the red colour of meat batter stored under illumination at 4 °C for 48 h. Hardness of pork products was the lowest in samples manufactured with tara pod powder compared with control. Results highlight the potential of using tara pod powder as natural functional ingredient in the development of pork products with enhanced quality and shelf life.

  14. Rapid detection of peptide markers for authentication purposes in raw and cooked meat using ambient liquid extraction surface analysis mass spectrometry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montowska, Magdalena; Alexander, Morgan R; Tucker, Gregory A; Barrett, David A

    2014-10-21

    In this Article, our previously developed ambient LESA-MS methodology is implemented to analyze five types of thermally treated meat species, namely, beef, pork, horse, chicken, and turkey meat, to select and identify heat-stable and species-specific peptide markers. In-solution tryptic digests of cooked meats were deposited onto a polymer surface, followed by LESA-MS analysis and evaluation using multivariate data analysis and tandem electrospray MS. The five types of cooked meat were clearly discriminated using principal component analysis and orthogonal partial least-squares discriminant analysis. 23 heat stable peptide markers unique to species and muscle protein were identified following data-dependent tandem LESA-MS analysis. Surface extraction and direct ambient MS analysis of mixtures of cooked meat species was performed for the first time and enabled detection of 10% (w/w) of pork, horse, and turkey meat and 5% (w/w) of chicken meat in beef, using the developed LESA-MS/MS analysis. The study shows, for the first time, that ambient LESA-MS methodology displays specificity sufficient to be implemented effectively for the analysis of processed and complex peptide digests. The proposed approach is much faster and simpler than other measurement tools for meat speciation; it has potential for application in other areas of meat science or food production.

  15. Probabilistic risk model for staphylococcal intoxication from pork-based food dishes prepared in food service establishments in Korea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Hyun Jung; Griffiths, Mansel W; Fazil, Aamir M; Lammerding, Anna M

    2009-09-01

    Foodborne illness contracted at food service operations is an important public health issue in Korea. In this study, the probabilities for growth of, and enterotoxin production by, Staphylococcus aureus in pork meat-based foods prepared in food service operations were estimated by the Monte Carlo simulation. Data on the prevalence and concentration of S. aureus as well as compliance to guidelines for time and temperature controls during food service operations were collected. The growth of S. aureus was initially estimated by using the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Pathogen Modeling Program. A second model based on raw pork meat was derived to compare cell number predictions. The correlation between toxin level and cell number as well as minimum toxin dose obtained from published data was adopted to quantify the probability of staphylococcal intoxication. When data gaps were found, assumptions were made based on guidelines for food service practices. Baseline risk model and scenario analyses were performed to indicate possible outcomes of staphylococcal intoxication under the scenarios generated based on these data gaps. Staphylococcal growth was predicted during holding before and after cooking, and the highest estimated concentration (4.59 log CFU/g for the 99.9th percentile value) of S. aureus was observed in raw pork initially contaminated with S. aureus and held before cooking. The estimated probability for staphylococcal intoxication was very low, using currently available data. However, scenario analyses revealed an increased possibility of staphylococcal intoxication when increased levels of initial contamination in the raw meat, andlonger holding time both before and after cooking the meat occurred.

  16. Passive quantum error correction of linear optics networks through error averaging

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marshman, Ryan J.; Lund, Austin P.; Rohde, Peter P.; Ralph, Timothy C.

    2018-02-01

    We propose and investigate a method of error detection and noise correction for bosonic linear networks using a method of unitary averaging. The proposed error averaging does not rely on ancillary photons or control and feedforward correction circuits, remaining entirely passive in its operation. We construct a general mathematical framework for this technique and then give a series of proof of principle examples including numerical analysis. Two methods for the construction of averaging are then compared to determine the most effective manner of implementation and probe the related error thresholds. Finally we discuss some of the potential uses of this scheme.

  17. Modelling the rand and commodity prices: A Granger causality and cointegration analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xolani Ndlovu

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines the ‘commodity currency’ hypothesis of the Rand, that is, the postulate that the currency moves in line with commodity prices, and analyses the associated causality using nominal data between 1996 and 2010. We address both the short run and long run relationship between commodity prices and exchange rates. We find that while the levels of the series of both assets are difference stationary, they are not cointegrated. Further, we find the two variables are negatively related, with strong and significant causality running from commodity prices to the exchange rate and not vice versa, implying exogeneity in the determination of commodity prices with respect to the nominal exchange rate. The strength of the relationship is significantly weaker than other OECD commodity currencies. We surmise that the relationship is dynamic over time owing to the portfolio-rebalance argument and the Commodity Terms of Trade (CTT effect and, in the absence of an error correction mechanism, this disconnect may be prolonged. For commodity and currency market participants, this implies that while futures and forward commodity prices may be useful leading indicators of future currency movements, the price risk management strategies may need to be recalibrated over time.

  18. The Comparison Analysis of the Main Chemical Composition Parameters of Wild Boar Meat and Pork

    OpenAIRE

    Erika Bodnárné Skobrák; Károly Bodnár; Edit Mikóné Jónás; János Gundel; András Jávor

    2011-01-01

    The chemical composition of wild boar meat from wild boar parks with various habitats and different feeding facilities was analysed. Samples were collected from m. serratus anterior – during the winter hunting period. The protein, the total fat, the saturated and unsaturated fatty acid content were measured and also and those elements which have great importance on human alimentation. The results were compared with other author’s data of the same parameters of pork. The aim of the study was t...

  19. Effect of partial reduction of pork meat on the physicochemical and sensory quality of dry ripened sausages: development of a healthy venison salchichon.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Utrilla, M C; García Ruiz, A; Soriano, A

    2014-12-01

    The minimum percentage of pork meat to be added to traditional venison salchichon has been determined in order to ensure a nutritionally healthier product without impairing physicochemical or sensory properties. Six types of salchichon were made using lean venison and a varying amount of pork meat (40%, 30%, 25%, 20%, 15% and 10%). All types displayed appropriate physicochemical properties (pH, aw, moisture loss) and color (L*, a*, b*) during ripening, as well as adequate levels of lipolysis (acidity index) and lipid oxidation (TBARS). Moreover, reduction of the amount of pork meat in salchichon prompted an increase in the relative percentage of polyunsaturated fatty acids. It was concluded that in making venison salchichon, the addition of a 25% pork meat is sufficient to ensure a satisfactory ripening process and physicochemical characteristics, optimal organoleptic properties and a higher percentage of polyunsaturated fatty acids than that found in traditional venison salchichon. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Effect of partial replacement of pork meat with an olive oil organogel on the physicochemical and sensory quality of dry-ripened venison sausages.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Utrilla, M C; García Ruiz, A; Soriano, A

    2014-08-01

    A venison salchichon was made using varying proportions of olive oil to replace the traditional pork meat and to obtain a healthier product. Six types of salchichon were produced. The control type contained 75% lean venison and 25% pork meat; in the other types, 15%, 25%, 35%, 45% and 55% of the pork meat were replaced by olive oil introduced in the form of an organogel (olive oil emulsified with soy protein and water). All types were satisfactory in terms of physicochemical characteristics (pH, a(w), moisture loss) and instrumental colour throughout ripening, and displayed acceptable levels of lipolysis (acidity index) and lipid oxidation (TBARS). Higher proportions of olive oil prompted an increase in monounsaturated fatty acid content (mainly C18:1). All six types of salchichon were judged acceptable by consumers, the highest scores being given to those in which no more than 25% of the pork meat was replaced by olive oil. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Effects of modified atmosphere, associated with masterpack transport packaging, and refrigerated storage time on the quality characteristics of pork loin cuts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alessandra F. Rosa

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this research was to study the effects of modified atmosphere, associated with masterpack transport packaging, and refrigerated storage time on the quality characteristics of pork loin cuts. Cuts of pork loin were packaged in trays, covered with poly(vinyl chloride film. The trays were placed in a masterpack (MP, containing three gas compositions:  A 75% O2 : 25% CO2, B 50% O2 : 50% CO2 or C 100% CO2, and stored at 2 °C. Samples were taken after 1, 8, 15, and 22 days of storage, and evaluated for numerous shelf life traits. The development of Psychrotrophic aerobic bacteria and Pseudomonas spp. was found from the 15th day of storage. There was a significant treatment effect for some of the considered parameters, such as pH (P < 0.05 and color [L* (P < 0.07, a* (P < 0.07 and b* (P < 0.01]. There was a significant interaction (P < 0.01 for the TBARS values. It can be concluded, from the microbiological point of view, that the use of modified atmospheres containing 25% to 100% CO2 promotes the conservation of meat for up to 15 days of storage under refrigeration. From the point of view of color, atmospheres containing 75% O2 : 25% CO2 and 50% O2 : 50% CO2 ensure the color of packaged pork meat when stored at 2 °C for up to 15 days. From the point of view of lipid oxidation, packages with 100% CO2 are recommended for storage periods of more than 15 days, whereas those with 75% O2 : 25% CO2 are recommended for storage periods of up to 8 days.

  2. Is Pakistani Equity Market Integrated to the Equity Markets of Group of Eight (G8 Countries? An Empirical Analysis of Karachi Stock Exchange

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Syed Muhammad Aamir Shah

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available This study looks at the dynamic relationship between the Pakistani equity market and equity markets of Group of Eight countries (G8 which includes Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Russia, UK and USA by using weekly time series data starting from June 2004 to May 2009. Multivariate Co-integration approach by Johnson and Julius (1990 shows there exists no long-term relationship between the G8 and Pakistani equity market. Vector error correction (VECM model suggests that 100% of the lag periods disequilibrium has been corrected in the current period. Pairwise Granger Causality test shows that there exist a unidirectional causality between the equity market of Pakistan and the markets of France, Germany, Italy, Japan and United Kingdom. Impulse response analysis and variance decomposition analysis reveal that most of the shocks in Pakistani equity market are due to its own innovation and behave like exogenous. However, the markets of France, Japan, Germany and United Kingdom are exerting a little pressure on Pakistani equity markets. Therefore, by investing in Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE the fund manager of G8 countries especially Canada, Italy, Russia and USA is capable of getting the advantage of portfolio diversification.

  3. Modeling of Volatility with Non-linear Time Series Model

    OpenAIRE

    Kim Song Yon; Kim Mun Chol

    2013-01-01

    In this paper, non-linear time series models are used to describe volatility in financial time series data. To describe volatility, two of the non-linear time series are combined into form TAR (Threshold Auto-Regressive Model) with AARCH (Asymmetric Auto-Regressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity) error term and its parameter estimation is studied.

  4. Model-based bootstrapping when correcting for measurement error with application to logistic regression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buonaccorsi, John P; Romeo, Giovanni; Thoresen, Magne

    2018-03-01

    When fitting regression models, measurement error in any of the predictors typically leads to biased coefficients and incorrect inferences. A plethora of methods have been proposed to correct for this. Obtaining standard errors and confidence intervals using the corrected estimators can be challenging and, in addition, there is concern about remaining bias in the corrected estimators. The bootstrap, which is one option to address these problems, has received limited attention in this context. It has usually been employed by simply resampling observations, which, while suitable in some situations, is not always formally justified. In addition, the simple bootstrap does not allow for estimating bias in non-linear models, including logistic regression. Model-based bootstrapping, which can potentially estimate bias in addition to being robust to the original sampling or whether the measurement error variance is constant or not, has received limited attention. However, it faces challenges that are not present in handling regression models with no measurement error. This article develops new methods for model-based bootstrapping when correcting for measurement error in logistic regression with replicate measures. The methodology is illustrated using two examples, and a series of simulations are carried out to assess and compare the simple and model-based bootstrap methods, as well as other standard methods. While not always perfect, the model-based approaches offer some distinct improvements over the other methods. © 2017, The International Biometric Society.

  5. Effects of temperature and immersion time on diffusion of moisture and minerals during rehydration of osmotically treated pork meat cubes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Šuput Danijela Z.

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this work was to study the changes in osmotically treated pork meat during rehydration. Meat samples were osmotically treated in sugar beet molasses solution, at temperature of (23±2°C for 5 hours. After being osmotically treated, meat samples were rehydrated at constant temperature (20- 40°C during different times (15-60 min in distilled water. The effective diffusivity were between 8.35 and 9.11•10-10 (m2•s-1 for moisture, 6.30-6.94 • 10-10 (m2•s-1, for Na, 5.73-7.46 10-10 (m2•s-1, for K, 4.43-6.25 • 10-10 (m2•s-1, for Ca, 5.35-6.25 • 10-10 (m2•s-1, for Mg, 4.67-6.78 10-10 (m2•s-1, for Cu, 4.68-5.33 • 10-10 (m2•s-1, for Fe, 4.21-5.04 • 10-10 (m2•s-1, for Zn and 5.44-7.16 10-10 (m2•s-1, for Mn. Zugarramurdi and Lupin’s model was used to predict the equilibrium condition, which was shown to be appropriate for moisture uptake and solute loss during rehydration. [Projekat Ministarstva nauke Republike Srbije, br. TR-31055: Osmotic dehydration of food - energy and environmental aspects of sustainable production

  6. Dynamic Price Vector Formation Model-Based Automatic Demand Response Strategy for PV-Assisted EV Charging Stations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chen, Qifang; Wang, Fei; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Zhang, Jianhua; Li, Zhigang; Shafie-Khah, Miadreza; Catalao, Joao P. S.

    2017-11-01

    A real-time price (RTP)-based automatic demand response (ADR) strategy for PV-assisted electric vehicle (EV) Charging Station (PVCS) without vehicle to grid is proposed. The charging process is modeled as a dynamic linear program instead of the normal day-ahead and real-time regulation strategy, to capture the advantages of both global and real-time optimization. Different from conventional price forecasting algorithms, a dynamic price vector formation model is proposed based on a clustering algorithm to form an RTP vector for a particular day. A dynamic feasible energy demand region (DFEDR) model considering grid voltage profiles is designed to calculate the lower and upper bounds. A deduction method is proposed to deal with the unknown information of future intervals, such as the actual stochastic arrival and departure times of EVs, which make the DFEDR model suitable for global optimization. Finally, both the comparative cases articulate the advantages of the developed methods and the validity in reducing electricity costs, mitigating peak charging demand, and improving PV self-consumption of the proposed strategy are verified through simulation scenarios.

  7. Assessing the use of frozen pork meat in the manufacture of cooked ham

    OpenAIRE

    LOS, Francine Gomes Basso; PRESTES, Rosa Cristina; GRANATO, Daniel; SIMÕES, Deise Rosana Silva; ROMAN, Silvane Souza; DEMIATE, Ivo Mottin

    2016-01-01

    This study aimed to evaluate the effects of slow (–18 °C) and fast freezing (liquid nitrogen) of pork meat, and the use of exudate released upon thawing, on the physicochemical, color, rheological, microbiological, histological, and sensory characteristics of cooked ham. The meat samples were frozen at –18 °C and thawed after 22 weeks for the production of cooked ham. No significant difference was observed regarding physicochemical, color and microbiological parameters or in senso...

  8. Essays on Commodity Prices and Macroeconomic Performance of Developing and Resources Rich Economies: Evidence from Kazakhstan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bilgin, Ferhat I.

    My dissertation consists of three essays in empirical macroeconomics. The objective of this research is to use rigorous time-series econometric analysis to investigate the impact of commodity prices on macroeconomic performance of a small, developing and resource-rich country, which is in the process of transition from a purely command and control economy to a market oriented one. Essay 1 studies the relationship between Kazakhstan's GDP, total government expenditure, real effective exchange rate and the world oil price. Specifically, I use the cointegrated vector autoregression (CVAR) and error correction modeling (ECM) approach to identify the long and short-run relations that may exist among these macroeconomic variables. I found a long-run relationship for Kazakhstan's GDP, which depends on government spending and the oil price positively, and on the real effective exchange rate negatively. In the short run, the growth rate of GDP depends on the growth rates of the oil price, investment and the magnitude of the deviation from the long-run equilibrium. Essay 2 studies the inflation process in Kazakhstan based on the analysis of price formation in the following sectors: monetary, external, labor and goods and services. The modeling is conducted from two different perspectives: the first is the monetary model of inflation framework and the second is the mark-up modeling framework. Encompassing test results show that the mark-up model performs better than the monetary model in explaining inflation in Kazakhstan. According to the mark-up inflation model, in the long run, the price level is positively related to unit labor costs, import prices and government administered prices as well the world oil prices. In the short run, the inflation is positively influenced by the previous quarter's inflation, the contemporaneous changes in the government administered prices, oil prices and by the changes of contemporaneous and lagged unit labor costs, and negatively affected

  9. The safety and quality of pork and poultry meat imports for the common European market received at border inspection post Hamburg Harbour between 2014 and 2015.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jansen, Wiebke; Woudstra, Svenja; Müller, Anja; Grabowski, Nils; Schoo, Gundela; Gerulat, Bettina; Klein, Günter; Kehrenberg, Corinna

    2018-01-01

    Though imports of products of animal origin into the European Union (EU) have to comply with legal requirements and quality standards of the community, food consignment rejections at external EU borders have been increasing in recent years. This study explored microbiological metrics according to national target and critical values valid for samples at consumer level of 498 fresh poultry meat and 136 fresh pork filets from consignments subjected to physical checks during clearing at the border inspection post Hamburg harbour between January 2014 and December 2015 with ISO standard methods. Quantitative results indicated that critical thresholds for aerobic counts, Enterobacteriaceae, and E. coli were never surpassed. Merely for staphylococci, one poultry sample (0.2%) and 10 pork samples (9.3%) exceeded the critical limit (3.7 log cfu/g). However, qualitative analyses revealed that, Staphylococcus aureus was present in 16% and 10% of all poultry and pork samples, respectively, though no methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus could be confirmed. Moreover, E. coli was present in 50% and 67% of all pork and poultry samples, respectively, and thereof 33 isolates were confirmed as extended-spectrum β-lactamase-producing E. coli. Only 1.2% of the poultry samples were unacceptable due to the presence of Salmonella spp., whereas they were not detected in any pork sample. Campylobacter spp. were not detected in any sample. Though imported pork and poultry meat complies mostly with national market requirements, it might pose a potential risk to public health, especially for a direct or indirect foodborne transmission of imported, uncommon strains of zoonotic bacteria.

  10. Small Sample Properties of Bayesian Multivariate Autoregressive Time Series Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Price, Larry R.

    2012-01-01

    The aim of this study was to compare the small sample (N = 1, 3, 5, 10, 15) performance of a Bayesian multivariate vector autoregressive (BVAR-SEM) time series model relative to frequentist power and parameter estimation bias. A multivariate autoregressive model was developed based on correlated autoregressive time series vectors of varying…

  11. iVAR: a program for imputing missing data in multivariate time series using vector autoregressive models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Siwei; Molenaar, Peter C M

    2014-12-01

    This article introduces iVAR, an R program for imputing missing data in multivariate time series on the basis of vector autoregressive (VAR) models. We conducted a simulation study to compare iVAR with three methods for handling missing data: listwise deletion, imputation with sample means and variances, and multiple imputation ignoring time dependency. The results showed that iVAR produces better estimates for the cross-lagged coefficients than do the other three methods. We demonstrate the use of iVAR with an empirical example of time series electrodermal activity data and discuss the advantages and limitations of the program.

  12. Correcting systematic errors in high-sensitivity deuteron polarization measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brantjes, N. P. M.; Dzordzhadze, V.; Gebel, R.; Gonnella, F.; Gray, F. E.; van der Hoek, D. J.; Imig, A.; Kruithof, W. L.; Lazarus, D. M.; Lehrach, A.; Lorentz, B.; Messi, R.; Moricciani, D.; Morse, W. M.; Noid, G. A.; Onderwater, C. J. G.; Özben, C. S.; Prasuhn, D.; Levi Sandri, P.; Semertzidis, Y. K.; da Silva e Silva, M.; Stephenson, E. J.; Stockhorst, H.; Venanzoni, G.; Versolato, O. O.

    2012-02-01

    This paper reports deuteron vector and tensor beam polarization measurements taken to investigate the systematic variations due to geometric beam misalignments and high data rates. The experiments used the In-Beam Polarimeter at the KVI-Groningen and the EDDA detector at the Cooler Synchrotron COSY at Jülich. By measuring with very high statistical precision, the contributions that are second-order in the systematic errors become apparent. By calibrating the sensitivity of the polarimeter to such errors, it becomes possible to obtain information from the raw count rate values on the size of the errors and to use this information to correct the polarization measurements. During the experiment, it was possible to demonstrate that corrections were satisfactory at the level of 10 -5 for deliberately large errors. This may facilitate the real time observation of vector polarization changes smaller than 10 -6 in a search for an electric dipole moment using a storage ring.

  13. Correcting systematic errors in high-sensitivity deuteron polarization measurements

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brantjes, N.P.M. [Kernfysisch Versneller Instituut, University of Groningen, NL-9747AA Groningen (Netherlands); Dzordzhadze, V. [Brookhaven National Laboratory, Upton, NY 11973 (United States); Gebel, R. [Institut fuer Kernphysik, Juelich Center for Hadron Physics, Forschungszentrum Juelich, D-52425 Juelich (Germany); Gonnella, F. [Physica Department of ' Tor Vergata' University, Rome (Italy); INFN-Sez. ' Roma tor Vergata,' Rome (Italy); Gray, F.E. [Regis University, Denver, CO 80221 (United States); Hoek, D.J. van der [Kernfysisch Versneller Instituut, University of Groningen, NL-9747AA Groningen (Netherlands); Imig, A. [Brookhaven National Laboratory, Upton, NY 11973 (United States); Kruithof, W.L. [Kernfysisch Versneller Instituut, University of Groningen, NL-9747AA Groningen (Netherlands); Lazarus, D.M. [Brookhaven National Laboratory, Upton, NY 11973 (United States); Lehrach, A.; Lorentz, B. [Institut fuer Kernphysik, Juelich Center for Hadron Physics, Forschungszentrum Juelich, D-52425 Juelich (Germany); Messi, R. [Physica Department of ' Tor Vergata' University, Rome (Italy); INFN-Sez. ' Roma tor Vergata,' Rome (Italy); Moricciani, D. [INFN-Sez. ' Roma tor Vergata,' Rome (Italy); Morse, W.M. [Brookhaven National Laboratory, Upton, NY 11973 (United States); Noid, G.A. [Indiana University Cyclotron Facility, Bloomington, IN 47408 (United States); and others

    2012-02-01

    This paper reports deuteron vector and tensor beam polarization measurements taken to investigate the systematic variations due to geometric beam misalignments and high data rates. The experiments used the In-Beam Polarimeter at the KVI-Groningen and the EDDA detector at the Cooler Synchrotron COSY at Juelich. By measuring with very high statistical precision, the contributions that are second-order in the systematic errors become apparent. By calibrating the sensitivity of the polarimeter to such errors, it becomes possible to obtain information from the raw count rate values on the size of the errors and to use this information to correct the polarization measurements. During the experiment, it was possible to demonstrate that corrections were satisfactory at the level of 10{sup -5} for deliberately large errors. This may facilitate the real time observation of vector polarization changes smaller than 10{sup -6} in a search for an electric dipole moment using a storage ring.

  14. Ultrasonic-assisted incorporation of nano-encapsulated omega-3 fatty acids to enhance the fatty acid profile of pork meat.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ojha, K Shikha; Perussello, Camila A; García, Carlos Álvarez; Kerry, Joseph P; Pando, Daniel; Tiwari, Brijesh K

    2017-10-01

    In this study, ultrasound was employed to enhance the diffusion of microencapsulated fatty acids into pork meat. Nanovesicles of fish oil composed of 42% EPA (eicosapentanoic acid) and 16% DHA (docosahexanoic acid) were prepared using two different commercial Pronanosome preparations (Lipo-N and Lipo-CAT; which yield cationic and non-cationic nanovesicles, respectively). The thin film hydration (TFH) methodology was employed for encapsulation. Pork meat (Musculus semitendinosus) was submerged in the nanovesicles suspension and subjected to ultrasound (US) treatment at 25kHz for either 30 or 60min. Samples were analysed for fatty acid composition using gas chromatography-flame ionisation (GC-FID). The content of long-chain PUFAs, especially omega-3, was found to increase following the US treatment which was higher for Lipo-CAT compared to Lipo-N nanovesicles. Samples subjected to Lipo-N had higher atherogenic and thrombogenic indices, indicating higher levels of saturated fatty acids compared to the Lipo-CAT. The omega-6/omega-3 ratio in pork meat was significantly reduced following the US treatment, thus indicating an improved fatty acid profile of pork. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. House price responsiveness of housing investments across major European economies

    OpenAIRE

    Gattini, Luca; Ganoulis, Ioannis

    2012-01-01

    In comparison with the large literature on house prices, housing investments have been studied far less. This paper investigates the behaviour of private residential investments for the six largest European economies, namely: Germany, France, Italy, Spain, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom. It employs a common modelling structure based on an error correction approach and country specific models. First, co-integration among the parsimoniously specified set of fundamental variables is dete...

  16. Temporal aggregation in first order cointegrated vector autoregressive models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    La Cour, Lisbeth Funding; Milhøj, Anders

    We study aggregation - or sample frequencies - of time series, e.g. aggregation from weekly to monthly or quarterly time series. Aggregation usually gives shorter time series but spurious phenomena, in e.g. daily observations, can on the other hand be avoided. An important issue is the effect of ...... of aggregation on the adjustment coefficient in cointegrated systems. We study only first order vector autoregressive processes for n dimensional time series Xt, and we illustrate the theory by a two dimensional and a four dimensional model for prices of various grades of gasoline...

  17. Prediction of CO concentrations based on a hybrid Partial Least Square and Support Vector Machine model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yeganeh, B.; Motlagh, M. Shafie Pour; Rashidi, Y.; Kamalan, H.

    2012-08-01

    Due to the health impacts caused by exposures to air pollutants in urban areas, monitoring and forecasting of air quality parameters have become popular as an important topic in atmospheric and environmental research today. The knowledge on the dynamics and complexity of air pollutants behavior has made artificial intelligence models as a useful tool for a more accurate pollutant concentration prediction. This paper focuses on an innovative method of daily air pollution prediction using combination of Support Vector Machine (SVM) as predictor and Partial Least Square (PLS) as a data selection tool based on the measured values of CO concentrations. The CO concentrations of Rey monitoring station in the south of Tehran, from Jan. 2007 to Feb. 2011, have been used to test the effectiveness of this method. The hourly CO concentrations have been predicted using the SVM and the hybrid PLS-SVM models. Similarly, daily CO concentrations have been predicted based on the aforementioned four years measured data. Results demonstrated that both models have good prediction ability; however the hybrid PLS-SVM has better accuracy. In the analysis presented in this paper, statistic estimators including relative mean errors, root mean squared errors and the mean absolute relative error have been employed to compare performances of the models. It has been concluded that the errors decrease after size reduction and coefficients of determination increase from 56 to 81% for SVM model to 65-85% for hybrid PLS-SVM model respectively. Also it was found that the hybrid PLS-SVM model required lower computational time than SVM model as expected, hence supporting the more accurate and faster prediction ability of hybrid PLS-SVM model.

  18. Market Integration and Transport Costs in France 1825-1903

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ejrnæs, Mette; Persson, Karl Gunnar

    2000-01-01

    This article argues that the appropriate standard for the analysis of commodity market integration is the transport cost adjusted law of one price. A threshold error correction model that incorporates that property is developed and applied to French wheat prices in the 19th century. This type...... to equilibrium price differentials between markets. Unlike previous studies this article shows that French wheat markets were well integrated by the middle of the 19th century...... of modeling acknowledges the fact that error corrections only take place when price differentials between markets exceed transport costs. The method used produces estimates of implied transport costs, which are quite close to observed costs, and generates more accurate estimates of the adjustment speed...

  19. Remotely-sensed, nocturnal, dew point correlates with malaria transmission in Southern Province, Zambia: a time-series study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nygren, David; Stoyanov, Cristina; Lewold, Clemens; Månsson, Fredrik; Miller, John; Kamanga, Aniset; Shiff, Clive J

    2014-06-13

    Plasmodium falciparum transmission has decreased significantly in Zambia in the last decade. The malaria transmission is influenced by environmental variables. Incorporation of environmental variables in models of malaria transmission likely improves model fit and predicts probable trends in malaria disease. This work is based on the hypothesis that remotely-sensed environmental factors, including nocturnal dew point, are associated with malaria transmission and sustain foci of transmission during the low transmission season in the Southern Province of Zambia. Thirty-eight rural health centres in Southern Province, Zambia were divided into three zones based on transmission patterns. Correlations between weekly malaria cases and remotely-sensed nocturnal dew point, nocturnal land surface temperature as well as vegetation indices and rainfall were evaluated in time-series analyses from 2012 week 19 to 2013 week 36. Zonal as well as clinic-based, multivariate, autoregressive, integrated, moving average (ARIMAX) models implementing environmental variables were developed to model transmission in 2011 week 19 to 2012 week 18 and forecast transmission in 2013 week 37 to week 41. During the dry, low transmission season significantly higher vegetation indices, nocturnal land surface temperature and nocturnal dew point were associated with the areas of higher transmission. Environmental variables improved ARIMAX models. Dew point and normalized differentiated vegetation index were significant predictors and improved all zonal transmission models. In the high-transmission zone, this was also seen for land surface temperature. Clinic models were improved by adding dew point and land surface temperature as well as normalized differentiated vegetation index. The mean average error of prediction for ARIMAX models ranged from 0.7 to 33.5%. Forecasts of malaria incidence were valid for three out of five rural health centres; however, with poor results at the zonal level. In this

  20. Real time detection of farm-level swine mycobacteriosis outbreak using time series modeling of the number of condemned intestines in abattoirs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adachi, Yasumoto; Makita, Kohei

    2015-09-01

    Mycobacteriosis in swine is a common zoonosis found in abattoirs during meat inspections, and the veterinary authority is expected to inform the producer for corrective actions when an outbreak is detected. The expected value of the number of condemned carcasses due to mycobacteriosis therefore would be a useful threshold to detect an outbreak, and the present study aims to develop such an expected value through time series modeling. The model was developed using eight years of inspection data (2003 to 2010) obtained at 2 abattoirs of the Higashi-Mokoto Meat Inspection Center, Japan. The resulting model was validated by comparing the predicted time-dependent values for the subsequent 2 years with the actual data for 2 years between 2011 and 2012. For the modeling, at first, periodicities were checked using Fast Fourier Transformation, and the ensemble average profiles for weekly periodicities were calculated. An Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model was fitted to the residual of the ensemble average on the basis of minimum Akaike's information criterion (AIC). The sum of the ARIMA model and the weekly ensemble average was regarded as the time-dependent expected value. During 2011 and 2012, the number of whole or partial condemned carcasses exceeded the 95% confidence interval of the predicted values 20 times. All of these events were associated with the slaughtering of pigs from three producers with the highest rate of condemnation due to mycobacteriosis.

  1. Hybrid Wavelet De-noising and Rank-Set Pair Analysis approach for forecasting hydro-meteorological time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    WANG, D.; Wang, Y.; Zeng, X.

    2017-12-01

    Accurate, fast forecasting of hydro-meteorological time series is presently a major challenge in drought and flood mitigation. This paper proposes a hybrid approach, Wavelet De-noising (WD) and Rank-Set Pair Analysis (RSPA), that takes full advantage of a combination of the two approaches to improve forecasts of hydro-meteorological time series. WD allows decomposition and reconstruction of a time series by the wavelet transform, and hence separation of the noise from the original series. RSPA, a more reliable and efficient version of Set Pair Analysis, is integrated with WD to form the hybrid WD-RSPA approach. Two types of hydro-meteorological data sets with different characteristics and different levels of human influences at some representative stations are used to illustrate the WD-RSPA approach. The approach is also compared to three other generic methods: the conventional Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) method, Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) (BP-error Back Propagation, MLP-Multilayer Perceptron and RBF-Radial Basis Function), and RSPA alone. Nine error metrics are used to evaluate the model performance. The results show that WD-RSPA is accurate, feasible, and effective. In particular, WD-RSPA is found to be the best among the various generic methods compared in this paper, even when the extreme events are included within a time series.

  2. Multi spectral imaging analysis for meat spoilage discrimination

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christiansen, Asger Nyman; Carstensen, Jens Michael; Papadopoulou, Olga

    classification methods: Naive Bayes Classifier as a reference model, Canonical Discriminant Analysis (CDA) and Support Vector Classification (SVC). As the final step, generalization of the models was performed using k-fold validation (k=10). Results showed that image analysis provided good discrimination of meat......In the present study, fresh beef fillets were purchased from a local butcher shop and stored aerobically and in modified atmosphere packaging (MAP, CO2 40%/O2 30%/N2 30%) at six different temperatures (0, 4, 8, 12, 16 and 20°C). Microbiological analysis in terms of total viable counts (TVC......) was performed in parallel with videometer image snapshots and sensory analysis. Odour and colour characteristics of meat were determined by a test panel and attributed into three pre-characterized quality classes, namely Fresh; Semi Fresh and Spoiled during the days of its shelf life. So far, different...

  3. LC-QTOF-MS identification of porcine-specific peptide in heat treated pork identifies candidate markers for meat species determination.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarah, S A; Faradalila, W N; Salwani, M S; Amin, I; Karsani, S A; Sazili, A Q

    2016-05-15

    The purpose of this study was to identify porcine-specific peptide markers from thermally processed meat that could differentiate pork from beef, chevon and chicken meat. In the initial stage, markers from tryptic digested protein of chilled, boiled and autoclaved pork were identified using LC-QTOF-MS. An MRM method was then established for verification. A thorough investigation of LC-QTOF-MS data showed that only seven porcine-specific peptides were consistently detected. Among these peptides, two were derived from lactate dehydrogenase, one from creatine kinase, and four from serum albumin protein. However, MRM could only detect four peptides (EVTEFAK, LVVITAGAR, FVIER and TVLGNFAAFVQK) that were consistently present in pork samples. In conclusion, meat species determination through a tandem mass spectrometry platform shows high potential in providing scientifically valid and reliable results even at peptide level. Besides, the specificity and selectivity offered by the proteomics approach also provide a robust platform for Halal authentication. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Pork Preference for Consumers in China, Japan and South Korea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S.-H. Oh

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Competition in global pork markets has increased as trade barriers have opened as a result of free trade agreements. Japanese prefer both loin and Boston butt, while Chinese prefer pork offal. Frozen pork has increased in terms of imports into China. Japanese consumers consider pork meat origin along with pork price when making purchase decisions. While the Chinese prefer a strong tasting pork product, South Korean consumers show very strong preferences to pork that is higher in fat. Therefore, South Korean consumers have a higher demand for pork belly and Boston butt. Consequently, the supply and demand of pork in Korea is hardly met, which means that importation of high fat parts is inevitable. In Korea there is lower preference toward low fat parts such as loin, picnic shoulder, and ham. During the economic depression in South Korea there have been observable changes in consumer preferences. There remains steep competition among the pork exporting countries in terms of gaining share in the international pork market. If specific consumer preferences would be considered carefully, there is the possibility to increase the amount of pork exported to these countries.

  5. Pork Preference for Consumers in China, Japan and South Korea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oh, S.-H.; See, M. T.

    2012-01-01

    Competition in global pork markets has increased as trade barriers have opened as a result of free trade agreements. Japanese prefer both loin and Boston butt, while Chinese prefer pork offal. Frozen pork has increased in terms of imports into China. Japanese consumers consider pork meat origin along with pork price when making purchase decisions. While the Chinese prefer a strong tasting pork product, South Korean consumers show very strong preferences to pork that is higher in fat. Therefore, South Korean consumers have a higher demand for pork belly and Boston butt. Consequently, the supply and demand of pork in Korea is hardly met, which means that importation of high fat parts is inevitable. In Korea there is lower preference toward low fat parts such as loin, picnic shoulder, and ham. During the economic depression in South Korea there have been observable changes in consumer preferences. There remains steep competition among the pork exporting countries in terms of gaining share in the international pork market. If specific consumer preferences would be considered carefully, there is the possibility to increase the amount of pork exported to these countries. PMID:25049488

  6. Tight Error Bounds for Fourier Methods for Option Pricing for Exponential Levy Processes

    KAUST Repository

    Crocce, Fabian

    2016-01-06

    Prices of European options whose underlying asset is driven by the L´evy process are solutions to partial integrodifferential Equations (PIDEs) that generalise the Black-Scholes equation by incorporating a non-local integral term to account for the discontinuities in the asset price. The Levy -Khintchine formula provides an explicit representation of the characteristic function of a L´evy process (cf, [6]): One can derive an exact expression for the Fourier transform of the solution of the relevant PIDE. The rapid rate of convergence of the trapezoid quadrature and the speedup provide efficient methods for evaluationg option prices, possibly for a range of parameter configurations simultaneously. A couple of works have been devoted to the error analysis and parameter selection for these transform-based methods. In [5] several payoff functions are considered for a rather general set of models, whose characteristic function is assumed to be known. [4] presents the framework and theoretical approach for the error analysis, and establishes polynomial convergence rates for approximations of the option prices. [1] presents FT-related methods with curved integration contour. The classical flat FT-methods have been, on the other hand, extended for option pricing problems beyond the European framework [3]. We present a methodology for studying and bounding the error committed when using FT methods to compute option prices. We also provide a systematic way of choosing the parameters of the numerical method, minimising the error bound and guaranteeing adherence to a pre-described error tolerance. We focus on exponential L´evy processes that may be of either diffusive or pure jump in type. Our contribution is to derive a tight error bound for a Fourier transform method when pricing options under risk-neutral Levy dynamics. We present a simplified bound that separates the contributions of the payoff and of the process in an easily processed and extensible product form that

  7. Identification of duck, partridge, pheasant, quail, chicken and turkey meats by species-specific PCR assays to assess the authenticity of traditional game meat Alheira sausages

    OpenAIRE

    Amaral, J.S.; Santos, Cristina G.; Melo, Vitor S.; Costa, Joana; Oliveira, M.B.P.P.; Mafra, I.

    2015-01-01

    Game meat Alheira (Alheira de caça) sausage is a traditional fermented product typical from the Northeast region of Portugal, having bread and meats (including game) as main ingredients. It is a particularly appreciated product by consumers that commands higher prices, especially in comparison with the common Alheira produced with pork and poultry meats. Following our previous work in which several mammalian game meat species were successfully identified in game meat Alheira sausages for auth...

  8. Impact of banking institutions on national economy an empirical study of time series analysis in Pakistan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nouman Badar

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines the long and short term relationship of financial sector development on economic growth of Pakistan where development of financial sector is detected by the variables truly depicts the efficiency of financial sector i.e. Money Supply, size of Advances, Private sector Credit growth and Bank’s equity with economic growth which is pronounced by Gross Domestic Product in this study. Data of almost 22 years ranges from 1992 to 2013 of overall banking industry is taken to obtain results by employing Johnson and Jusellious co integration technique to detect long run association while Granger Casualty test is used to determine cause and effect relationship and to measure short term dynamics Vector Error correction model is used. The result shows that both long and short run relationship exists between growth of financial sector and economy of Pakistan

  9. Error correcting coding for OTN

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Justesen, Jørn; Larsen, Knud J.; Pedersen, Lars A.

    2010-01-01

    Forward error correction codes for 100 Gb/s optical transmission are currently receiving much attention from transport network operators and technology providers. We discuss the performance of hard decision decoding using product type codes that cover a single OTN frame or a small number...... of such frames. In particular we argue that a three-error correcting BCH is the best choice for the component code in such systems....

  10. Analysis of transmission elasticity of international prices for sugar prices in Brazil: an application of the Structural Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mario Antonio Margarido

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available This study aims to determine and analyze the spatial elasticity (or horizontal of price transmission between international sugar prices and the average price received by the Brazilian exporter of sugar, using the Structural Model. The data used are from January/2004 to November/2015. As a result, variations of 1% in the international sugar price are transmitted to the average price received by Brazilian sugar exporters with a magnitude of 0.3% on average, setting inelastic relationship between the two variables and, consequently, the non-occurrence of the law of one price. So, there are mechanisms in this market that are hindering the full functioning of the arbitration. This situation is not unusual, because the sugar is one of the most commercially protected product and suffer much interference.

  11. Pricing and Capacity Planning Problems in Energy Transmission Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Villumsen, Jonas Christoffer

    strategy. In the Nordic electricity system a market with zonal prices is adopted. We consider the problem of designing zones in an optimal way explicitly considering uncertainty. Finally, we formulate the integrated problem of pipeline capacity expansion planning and transmission pricing in natural gas...... necessitates a radical change in the way we plan and operate energy systems. Another paradigm change which began in the 1990’s for electricity systems is that of deregulation. This has led to a variety of different market structures implemented across the world. In this thesis we discuss capacity planning...... and transmission pricing problems in energy transmission networks. Although the modelling framework applies to energy networks in general, most of the applications discussed concern the transmission of electricity. A number of the problems presented involves transmission switching, which allows the operator...

  12. Simulation of co-phase error correction of optical multi-aperture imaging system based on stochastic parallel gradient decent algorithm

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Xiaojun; Ma, Haotong; Luo, Chuanxin

    2016-10-01

    The optical multi-aperture imaging system is an effective way to magnify the aperture and increase the resolution of telescope optical system, the difficulty of which lies in detecting and correcting of co-phase error. This paper presents a method based on stochastic parallel gradient decent algorithm (SPGD) to correct the co-phase error. Compared with the current method, SPGD method can avoid detecting the co-phase error. This paper analyzed the influence of piston error and tilt error on image quality based on double-aperture imaging system, introduced the basic principle of SPGD algorithm, and discuss the influence of SPGD algorithm's key parameters (the gain coefficient and the disturbance amplitude) on error control performance. The results show that SPGD can efficiently correct the co-phase error. The convergence speed of the SPGD algorithm is improved with the increase of gain coefficient and disturbance amplitude, but the stability of the algorithm reduced. The adaptive gain coefficient can solve this problem appropriately. This paper's results can provide the theoretical reference for the co-phase error correction of the multi-aperture imaging system.

  13. Regression and regression analysis time series prediction modeling on climate data of quetta, pakistan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jafri, Y.Z.; Kamal, L.

    2007-01-01

    Various statistical techniques was used on five-year data from 1998-2002 of average humidity, rainfall, maximum and minimum temperatures, respectively. The relationships to regression analysis time series (RATS) were developed for determining the overall trend of these climate parameters on the basis of which forecast models can be corrected and modified. We computed the coefficient of determination as a measure of goodness of fit, to our polynomial regression analysis time series (PRATS). The correlation to multiple linear regression (MLR) and multiple linear regression analysis time series (MLRATS) were also developed for deciphering the interdependence of weather parameters. Spearman's rand correlation and Goldfeld-Quandt test were used to check the uniformity or non-uniformity of variances in our fit to polynomial regression (PR). The Breusch-Pagan test was applied to MLR and MLRATS, respectively which yielded homoscedasticity. We also employed Bartlett's test for homogeneity of variances on a five-year data of rainfall and humidity, respectively which showed that the variances in rainfall data were not homogenous while in case of humidity, were homogenous. Our results on regression and regression analysis time series show the best fit to prediction modeling on climatic data of Quetta, Pakistan. (author)

  14. Characterization of Antimicrobial Resistance of Listeria monocytogenes Strains Isolated from a Pork Processing Plant and Its Respective Meat Markets in Southern China

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Li, Lili; Olsen, Rikke Heidemann; Ye, Lei

    2016-01-01

    A total of 78 Listeria monocytogenes isolates from a pork processing plant and the respective meat markets in southern China were examined. This number includes 60 isolates from pork at markets, 5 from cooked pork products at markets, 10 from pork at a processing plant, and 3 from food......, ampicillin/sulbactam, imipenem, ciprofloxacin, levofloxacin, trimethoprim/sulfamethoxazole, and vancomycin. Two isolates were resistant to five antimicrobials. Twelve strains carried tet(M) and located on Tn916. PFGE analysis revealed genetic heterogeneity among individual serotypes. Two predominant PFGE...... types were found persistent from the processing plant to markets indicating that these two types of isolates were able to survive under environmental adverse conditions from the processing plant to markets, which need to be monitored. Compared to samples from the pork processing plant, the prevalence of...

  15. Topological quantum error correction in the Kitaev honeycomb model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Yi-Chan; Brell, Courtney G.; Flammia, Steven T.

    2017-08-01

    The Kitaev honeycomb model is an approximate topological quantum error correcting code in the same phase as the toric code, but requiring only a 2-body Hamiltonian. As a frustrated spin model, it is well outside the commuting models of topological quantum codes that are typically studied, but its exact solubility makes it more amenable to analysis of effects arising in this noncommutative setting than a generic topologically ordered Hamiltonian. Here we study quantum error correction in the honeycomb model using both analytic and numerical techniques. We first prove explicit exponential bounds on the approximate degeneracy, local indistinguishability, and correctability of the code space. These bounds are tighter than can be achieved using known general properties of topological phases. Our proofs are specialized to the honeycomb model, but some of the methods may nonetheless be of broader interest. Following this, we numerically study noise caused by thermalization processes in the perturbative regime close to the toric code renormalization group fixed point. The appearance of non-topological excitations in this setting has no significant effect on the error correction properties of the honeycomb model in the regimes we study. Although the behavior of this model is found to be qualitatively similar to that of the standard toric code in most regimes, we find numerical evidence of an interesting effect in the low-temperature, finite-size regime where a preferred lattice direction emerges and anyon diffusion is geometrically constrained. We expect this effect to yield an improvement in the scaling of the lifetime with system size as compared to the standard toric code.

  16. Short-Term Price Forecasting Models Based on Artificial Neural Networks for Intraday Sessions in the Iberian Electricity Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claudio Monteiro

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents novel intraday session models for price forecasts (ISMPF models for hourly price forecasting in the six intraday sessions of the Iberian electricity market (MIBEL and the analysis of mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs obtained with suitable combinations of their input variables in order to find the best ISMPF models. Comparisons of errors from different ISMPF models identified the most important variables for forecasting purposes. Similar analyses were applied to determine the best daily session models for price forecasts (DSMPF models for the day-ahead price forecasting in the daily session of the MIBEL, considering as input variables extensive hourly time series records of recent prices, power demands and power generations in the previous day, forecasts of demand, wind power generation and weather for the day-ahead, and chronological variables. ISMPF models include the input variables of DSMPF models as well as the daily session prices and prices of preceding intraday sessions. The best ISMPF models achieved lower MAPEs for most of the intraday sessions compared to the error of the best DSMPF model; furthermore, such DSMPF error was very close to the lowest limit error for the daily session. The best ISMPF models can be useful for MIBEL agents of the electricity intraday market and the electric energy industry.

  17. Indirect inference with time series observed with error

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rossi, Eduardo; Santucci de Magistris, Paolo

    estimation. We propose to solve this inconsistency by jointly estimating the nuisance and the structural parameters. Under standard assumptions, this estimator is consistent and asymptotically normal. A condition for the identification of ARMA plus noise is obtained. The proposed methodology is used......We analyze the properties of the indirect inference estimator when the observed series are contaminated by measurement error. We show that the indirect inference estimates are asymptotically biased when the nuisance parameters of the measurement error distribution are neglected in the indirect...... to estimate the parameters of continuous-time stochastic volatility models with auxiliary specifications based on realized volatility measures. Monte Carlo simulations shows the bias reduction of the indirect estimates obtained when the microstructure noise is explicitly modeled. Finally, an empirical...

  18. The Influence of Moderate Pressure and Subzero Temperature on the Shelf Life of Minced Cod, Salmon, Pork and Beef Meat

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ilona Kołodziejska

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The effect of moderate pressure at subzero temperature on natural microflora of minced cod, salmon, pork and beef meat was studied. Pressure of 193 MPa at –20 °C caused the reduction of total bacterial count in pork and beef meat by 1.1 and 0.6 log cycles, respectively, and by about 1.5 log cycles in fish meat. Under these conditions the psychrophilic and psychrotrophic bacteria were below the detection limit (<10 CFU/g of sample in pork and beef meat, while in cod and salmon meat they were reduced only by 1.3 and 2.0 log cycles, respectively. In all tested samples of meat treated with the pressure of 193 MPa at –20 °C, the number of coliforms was below 10 CFU/g. Under these conditions a significant reduction in the number of coagulase-positive Staphylococcus was also observed. During storage of samples at 4 °C after pressurization at 193 MPa and –20 °C, the inhibition of growth of all tested groups of bacteria was observed. Moderate pressure at subzero temperature does not ensure complete inactivation of bacteria; however, it allows the improvement of microbiological quality and extension of shelf life of food, which depends on the level of bacterial contamination of the initial raw material.

  19. A Feature Fusion Based Forecasting Model for Financial Time Series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Zhiqiang; Wang, Huaiqing; Liu, Quan; Yang, Jie

    2014-01-01

    Predicting the stock market has become an increasingly interesting research area for both researchers and investors, and many prediction models have been proposed. In these models, feature selection techniques are used to pre-process the raw data and remove noise. In this paper, a prediction model is constructed to forecast stock market behavior with the aid of independent component analysis, canonical correlation analysis, and a support vector machine. First, two types of features are extracted from the historical closing prices and 39 technical variables obtained by independent component analysis. Second, a canonical correlation analysis method is utilized to combine the two types of features and extract intrinsic features to improve the performance of the prediction model. Finally, a support vector machine is applied to forecast the next day's closing price. The proposed model is applied to the Shanghai stock market index and the Dow Jones index, and experimental results show that the proposed model performs better in the area of prediction than other two similar models. PMID:24971455

  20. Studies on emulsion-type buffalo meat sausages incorporating skeletal and offal meat with different levels of pork fat.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krishnan, K R; Sharma, N

    1990-01-01

    Ready-to-eat emulsion-type buffalo meat sausages were developed by using a combination of 80% meat components with 20% pork back fat. The meat components were constituted of 70 parts buffalo skeletal meat and 30 parts offal meat (rumen meat and heart meat in equal proportions). The emulsion stability, cooking losses of emulsions and sausages, composition of cooked sausages, eating quality of sausages and the microscopic characteristics of the raw emulsion and cooked sausages were studied. The light microscope micrograph of the raw emulsion showed uniformly well distributed fat globules embedded in a dense protein gel. The cooked emulsion also showed uniformly sized fat globules well distributed in a fine, compact, coagulated protein gel, which retained their original spherical shape. Good quality emulsion-type sausages could be produced having a high emulsion stability (0·87 ± 0·07 ml fat release/100 g emulsion); a low emulsion cooking loss (9·60 ± 0·60%) and a low sausage cooking loss (8·83 ± 0·48%). The overall acceptability of sausages was also high. Copyright © 1990. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  1. A fingerprint key binding algorithm based on vector quantization and error correction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Liang; Wang, Qian; Lv, Ke; He, Ning

    2012-04-01

    In recent years, researches on seamless combination cryptosystem with biometric technologies, e.g. fingerprint recognition, are conducted by many researchers. In this paper, we propose a binding algorithm of fingerprint template and cryptographic key to protect and access the key by fingerprint verification. In order to avoid the intrinsic fuzziness of variant fingerprints, vector quantization and error correction technique are introduced to transform fingerprint template and then bind with key, after a process of fingerprint registration and extracting global ridge pattern of fingerprint. The key itself is secure because only hash value is stored and it is released only when fingerprint verification succeeds. Experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of our ideas.

  2. Consumer preferences for welfare pork - is the interest for tenderloin greater than for minced meat?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Denver, Sigrid; Sandøe, Peter; Christensen, Tove

    2015-01-01

    Denmark has among the highest levels of organic consumption in the world when looking at the overall market shares. Nevertheless, the market shares for organic meat and other types of welfare friendly meat are low and animal welfare friendly production systems remain a niche. The main Danish animal...... but these products are not approved by Dyrenes Beskyttelse. Instead, medium level animal welfare pork is marketed under privately owned super market labels. Other countries seem to be successful in using a different strategy where national animal welfare associations approve medium as well as premium levels...... of animal welfare (Christensen et al., 2014; Heerwagen et al., 2014). The purpose of this paper is to analyse whether there is a potential for increasing the market shares in Denmark for pork associated with medium levels of animal welfare without compromising the markets shares for premium animal welfare...

  3. Price Discovery Function of Index Futures in China: Evidence from Daily Closing Prices

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    SHIQING; XIE; JIAJUN; HUANG

    2013-01-01

    Price discovery is one of the main functions of stock index futures.Using the daily closing prices of the CSI 300 index and its index futures from April 2010 to April 2012,this paper applies a vector error correction model(VECM)and an impulse response function to conduct an empirical analysis on the price discovery function of index futures in China.This paper has the following four findings:(1)a solid cointegration relationship between the CSI 300 index and its index futures exists in the long run;(2)when prices deviate from the longterm equilibrium,the stock index reverses weakly,while the reversal of index futures is much stronger;(3)the daily lead-lag relationship between the prices of the CSI 300 index and its index futures contracts is not significant in the short run;()shocks from the spot market have a lasting impact upon the futures market,but not vice versa,due to the limited short-term adjustment ability of the spot market.

  4. Authentication of animal fats using direct analysis in real time (DART) ionization-mass spectrometry and chemometric tools.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vaclavik, Lukas; Hrbek, Vojtech; Cajka, Tomas; Rohlik, Bo-Anne; Pipek, Petr; Hajslova, Jana

    2011-06-08

    A combination of direct analysis in real time (DART) ionization coupled to time-of-flight mass spectrometry (TOFMS) and chemometrics was used for animal fat (lard and beef tallow) authentication. This novel instrumentation was employed for rapid profiling of triacylglycerols (TAGs) and polar compounds present in fat samples and their mixtures. Additionally, fat isolated from pork, beef, and pork/beef admixtures was analyzed. Mass spectral records were processed by principal component analysis (PCA) and stepwise linear discriminant analysis (LDA). DART-TOFMS profiles of TAGs were found to be more suitable for the purpose of discrimination among the examined fat types as compared to profiles of polar compounds. The LDA model developed using TAG data enabled not only reliable classification of samples representing neat fats but also detection of admixed lard and tallow at adulteration levels of 5 and 10% (w/w), respectively. The presented approach was also successfully applied to minced meat prepared from pork and beef with comparable fat content. Using the DART-TOFMS TAG profiles of fat isolated from meat mixtures, detection of 10% pork added to beef and vice versa was possible.

  5. Quality of wild boar meat and commercial pork Qualidade da carne de javali e de suíno comercial

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andréa Fernanda Marchiori

    2003-02-01

    Full Text Available Presently there is a growing interest in the production and marketing of wild boar meat, and to attend a differentiated consumer demand the quality attributes of this product should be well established. To characterize the quality of wild boar meat in comparison to commercial pork, post mortem changes in the longissimus dorsi and semimembranosus muscles were determined by pH and temperature decline, and color (CIE L*a*b* measurements. Water holding capacity (WHC was determined by the compression method and the exudate loss (EL by the drip loss test. Decline in longissimus dorsi muscle pH of wild boar was gradual and in the pork it was faster and more extensive. Temperature differences were observed in some post mortem times, and the lowest values were found in wild boar carcasses. Wild boar meat presented lower values of L* (brightness and b* (yellow color intensity, and higher values of a* (red color intensity than pork. The WHC of the wild boar meat was similar to pork, but the EL in female wild boar meat was lower than in pork.Atualmente existe no Brasil um interesse crescente na criação e exploração comercial da carne de javali e para atender a uma demanda diferenciada é importante que os atributos qualitativos do produto sejam bem estabelecidos. Com o objetivo de caracterizar a carne de javali nos parâmetros de qualidade e compará-la com a carne suína comercial, as mudanças nos músculos Longissimus dorsi e Semimembranosus, no post mortem, foram acompanhadas com medidas de pH, temperatura e cor (CIE L*a*b*. A capacidade de retenção de água (CRA foi determinada pelo método de compressão e a perda de exsudato (PE pelo teste de "drip loss". A queda de pH na carne de javali ocorreu de forma gradual, enquanto que no Longissimus dorsi de suíno a diminuição foi mais rápida e mais extensa. Diferenças de temperatura foram verificadas em alguns tempos post mortem, sendo que os menores valores foram encontrados nos javalis. A carne

  6. Consumer perception, facts and possibilities to improve acceptability of health and sensory characteristics of pork.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verbeke, W; Van Oeckel, M J; Warnants, N; Viaene, J; Boucqué, C V

    1999-10-01

    Changes at consumer level, as well as an image decline of the meat sector, resulted in considerable decreases of fresh meat consumption. Consumer orientation is considered as a prerequisite to slow down or reverse the adverse fresh pork consumption evolution. Consumer perception of pork is taken as the starting point of this article. Focus is first on assessing differences between facts related to nutritional value and healthiness aspects of pork and their perception by Belgian meat consumers. Second, possibilities of improving pork characteristics are identified. Pork is perceived worst as compared to beef and poultry on the attributes leanness, healthiness, taste and tenderness. Consumer-oriented response strategies should focus at improving these intrinsic quality characteristics, before other elements like traceability, labelling or marketing can be implemented successfully. The possibilities to improve nutritional value, healthiness and sensory characteristics pertain to selection, pig diet composition, transport, slaughter and post-slaughter circumstances. A successful adoption of consumer orientation urges for co-operation throughout the entire pork production chain. The identified topics are key attention points for adequate production and marketing by the pork sector, as well as for consequent communication by government and public services.

  7. Cooking frozen and thawed roasts: beef, pork, and lamb cuts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fulton, C; Davis, C

    1975-09-01

    Cooking time, yield, and palatability of paired beef, pork, and lamb roasts cooked from the frozen and thawed states were compared. Cooking time for all roasts averaged from 3 to 22 min. per pound longer for meat cooked from the frozen state. The longer cooking time from the frozen state. The longer cooking time from the frozen state was greater for roasts with a large amount of bone and for cuts cooked by braising than for less bony roasts and cuts cooked by roasting. Except for thawed beef rump roasts, which had a higher yield of cooked lean meat, yield of cooked lean meat from the various cuts of beef, pork, and lamb was not affected by the state at the start of cooking. Collectively, all pork roasts had a higher yield of cooked lean meat when cooked from the frozen state. Juiciness and natural flavor of the roasts were not affected by the state at the start of cooking. Lamb leg and rib roasts were more tender when cooked from the thawed state.

  8. Daily Crude Oil Price Forecasting Using Hybridizing Wavelet and Artificial Neural Network Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ani Shabri

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available A new method based on integrating discrete wavelet transform and artificial neural networks (WANN model for daily crude oil price forecasting is proposed. The discrete Mallat wavelet transform is used to decompose the crude price series into one approximation series and some details series (DS. The new series obtained by adding the effective one approximation series and DS component is then used as input into the ANN model to forecast crude oil price. The relative performance of WANN model was compared to regular ANN model for crude oil forecasting at lead times of 1 day for two main crude oil price series, West Texas Intermediate (WTI and Brent crude oil spot prices. In both cases, WANN model was found to provide more accurate crude oil prices forecasts than individual ANN model.

  9. Testing For Seasonal Cointegration and Error Correction: The U.S. Pecan Price-Inventory Relationship

    OpenAIRE

    Ibrahim, Mohammed; Florkowski, Wojciech J.

    2005-01-01

    Using time series data we examine behavior of pecan prices and inventories at zero and seasonal frequencies, given results of seasonal cointegration tests. Both, seasonally unadjusted and adjusted quarterly data are used (1991-2002). Results suggest that, first, shelled and total pecan inventories and shelled pecan prices have common unit roots at both the non-seasonal and seasonal frequencies; second, there is no long run equilibrium between pecan prices and shelled or total inventories when...

  10. Thermal diffusivity of Swedish meatballs, pork meat pate and tomato puree during high pressure processing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Landfeld, Ales; Strohalm, Jan; Stancl, Jaromir; Houska, Milan

    2011-06-01

    Our study is directed at the effects of high pressure on the thermal diffusivity of selected food samples - a fresh meat formulation for Swedish meatballs, pork meat pate and tomato puree. Preheated food samples were placed in a copper cell and tested at nominal pressures of 400 and 500 MPa in a high pressure chamber. The thermal diffusivity was estimated from the recorded time course of temperatures (at the center of the food sample, at the wall of the copper cell, and 7.5 mm from the wall) during the high pressure holding time. Measured time-temperature profiles were compared with predictions using the finite-element model to solve the problem of uneven heat conduction in an infinite, solid, linear cylinder using the linear temperature dependence of apparent thermal conductivity. Optimal parameters of the linear temperature dependence of apparent thermal conductivity were evaluated by comparing measured temperatures and temperatures calculated from the model. To minimize differences between measured and calculated temperatures, at the center of the sample, the Marquardt-Levenberg optimization method was used. The thermal diffusivity values of all food samples were linearly correlated with temperature for two levels of pressure. Thermal diffusivity values increased with increased pressure and temperature. † This paper was presented at the XLVIIIth European High Pressure Research Group (EHPRG 48) Meeting at Uppsala (Sweden), 25-29 July 2010.

  11. Comparision of the BAX® System with an in-house MSRV method for the detection of Salmonella in chicken carcasses and pork meat

    OpenAIRE

    Franchin,Paulo R.; Ogliari,Paulo J.; Andrade,Dalton F.; Chiapinoto,Maura; Lemos,Giovana; Rebelatto,Marina; Silva,Ivair G. da; Batista,Cleide R.V.

    2006-01-01

    A study was performed to compare the analytical procedure of the BAX® System for Salmonella PCR assay with the Modified Semi-Solid Rappaport-Vassiliadis (MSRV) method, for the detection of Salmonella in naturally contaminated chicken carcass samples (n = 762) and raw pork meat (n = 566). The chicken carcasses samples were collected during slaughtering after defeathering or immediately after evisceration and the raw pork meat collected from the deboned head of recently slaughtered pigs and oth...

  12. Relative Radiometric Normalization and Atmospheric Correction of a SPOT 5 Time Series

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthieu Rumeau

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available Multi-temporal images acquired at high spatial and temporal resolution are an important tool for detecting change and analyzing trends, especially in agricultural applications. However, to insure a reliable use of this kind of data, a rigorous radiometric normalization step is required. Normalization can be addressed by performing an atmospheric correction of each image in the time series. The main problem is the difficulty of obtaining an atmospheric characterization at a given acquisition date. In this paper, we investigate whether relative radiometric normalization can substitute for atmospheric correction. We develop an automatic method for relative radiometric normalization based on calculating linear regressions between unnormalized and reference images. Regressions are obtained using the reflectances of automatically selected invariant targets. We compare this method with an atmospheric correction method that uses the 6S model. The performances of both methods are compared using 18 images from of a SPOT 5 time series acquired over Reunion Island. Results obtained for a set of manually selected invariant targets show excellent agreement between the two methods in all spectral bands: values of the coefficient of determination (r² exceed 0.960, and bias magnitude values are less than 2.65. There is also a strong correlation between normalized NDVI values of sugarcane fields (r² = 0.959. Despite a relative error of 12.66% between values, very comparable NDVI patterns are observed.

  13. Error suppression and error correction in adiabatic quantum computation: non-equilibrium dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sarovar, Mohan; Young, Kevin C

    2013-01-01

    While adiabatic quantum computing (AQC) has some robustness to noise and decoherence, it is widely believed that encoding, error suppression and error correction will be required to scale AQC to large problem sizes. Previous works have established at least two different techniques for error suppression in AQC. In this paper we derive a model for describing the dynamics of encoded AQC and show that previous constructions for error suppression can be unified with this dynamical model. In addition, the model clarifies the mechanisms of error suppression and allows the identification of its weaknesses. In the second half of the paper, we utilize our description of non-equilibrium dynamics in encoded AQC to construct methods for error correction in AQC by cooling local degrees of freedom (qubits). While this is shown to be possible in principle, we also identify the key challenge to this approach: the requirement of high-weight Hamiltonians. Finally, we use our dynamical model to perform a simplified thermal stability analysis of concatenated-stabilizer-code encoded many-body systems for AQC or quantum memories. This work is a companion paper to ‘Error suppression and error correction in adiabatic quantum computation: techniques and challenges (2013 Phys. Rev. X 3 041013)’, which provides a quantum information perspective on the techniques and limitations of error suppression and correction in AQC. In this paper we couch the same results within a dynamical framework, which allows for a detailed analysis of the non-equilibrium dynamics of error suppression and correction in encoded AQC. (paper)

  14. Transmission of linear regression patterns between time series: from relationship in time series to complex networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Xiangyun; An, Haizhong; Fang, Wei; Huang, Xuan; Li, Huajiao; Zhong, Weiqiong; Ding, Yinghui

    2014-07-01

    The linear regression parameters between two time series can be different under different lengths of observation period. If we study the whole period by the sliding window of a short period, the change of the linear regression parameters is a process of dynamic transmission over time. We tackle fundamental research that presents a simple and efficient computational scheme: a linear regression patterns transmission algorithm, which transforms linear regression patterns into directed and weighted networks. The linear regression patterns (nodes) are defined by the combination of intervals of the linear regression parameters and the results of the significance testing under different sizes of the sliding window. The transmissions between adjacent patterns are defined as edges, and the weights of the edges are the frequency of the transmissions. The major patterns, the distance, and the medium in the process of the transmission can be captured. The statistical results of weighted out-degree and betweenness centrality are mapped on timelines, which shows the features of the distribution of the results. Many measurements in different areas that involve two related time series variables could take advantage of this algorithm to characterize the dynamic relationships between the time series from a new perspective.

  15. Modeling Financial Time Series Based on a Market Microstructure Model with Leverage Effect

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yanhui Xi

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The basic market microstructure model specifies that the price/return innovation and the volatility innovation are independent Gaussian white noise processes. However, the financial leverage effect has been found to be statistically significant in many financial time series. In this paper, a novel market microstructure model with leverage effects is proposed. The model specification assumed a negative correlation in the errors between the price/return innovation and the volatility innovation. With the new representations, a theoretical explanation of leverage effect is provided. Simulated data and daily stock market indices (Shanghai composite index, Shenzhen component index, and Standard and Poor’s 500 Composite index via Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC method are used to estimate the leverage market microstructure model. The results verify the effectiveness of the model and its estimation approach proposed in the paper and also indicate that the stock markets have strong leverage effects. Compared with the classical leverage stochastic volatility (SV model in terms of DIC (Deviance Information Criterion, the leverage market microstructure model fits the data better.

  16. Microbial pathogens in raw pork, chicken, and beef: benefit estimates for control using irradiation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Roberts, T.

    1985-12-01

    Various control procedures have been suggested for reducing foodborne infectious diseases. Receiving considerable attention is irradiation. This report estimates the medical and wage (or productivity) benefits associated with prevention of five human diseases transmitted by beef, pork, and chicken. (These diseases can also be transmitted by other vectors, such as eggs, milk, and pets. But these sources are not included in the analysis.) All of these foodborne infectious diseases - salmonellosis, campylobacteriosis, trichinosis, tapeworm, and toxoplasmosis - could be significantly reduced by irradiating meat and poultry. The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has just approved irradiation of pork to prevent trichinosis (50FR 29658-59) and is considering approval of irradiation of chicken to kill Salmonella. 22 references.

  17. Microbial pathogens in raw pork, chicken, and beef: benefit estimates for control using irradiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roberts, T.

    1985-01-01

    Various control procedures have been suggested for reducing foodborne infectious diseases. Receiving considerable attention is irradiation. This report estimates the medical and wage (or productivity) benefits associated with prevention of five human diseases transmitted by beef, pork, and chicken. (These diseases can also be transmitted by other vectors, such as eggs, milk, and pets. But these sources are not included in the analysis.) All of these foodborne infectious diseases - salmonellosis, campylobacteriosis, trichinosis, tapeworm, and toxoplasmosis - could be significantly reduced by irradiating meat and poultry. The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has just approved irradiation of pork to prevent trichinosis (50FR 29658-59) and is considering approval of irradiation of chicken to kill Salmonella. 22 references

  18. Measuring the CO2 shadow price for wastewater treatment: A directional distance function approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Molinos-Senante, María; Hanley, Nick; Sala-Garrido, Ramón

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • The shadow price of CO 2 informs about the marginal abatement cost of this pollutant. • It is estimated the shadow price of CO 2 for wastewater treatment plants. • The shadow prices depend on the setting of the directional vectors of the distance function. • Sewage sludge treatment technology affects the CO 2 shadow price. - Abstract: The estimation of the value of carbon emissions has become a major research and policy topic since the establishment of the Kyoto Protocol. The shadow price of CO 2 provides information about the marginal abatement cost of this pollutant. It is an essential element in guiding environmental policy issues, since the CO 2 shadow price can be used when fixing carbon tax rates, in environmental cost-benefit analysis and in ascertaining an initial market price for a trading system. The water industry could play an important role in the reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This paper estimates the shadow price of CO 2 for a sample of wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs), using a parametric quadratic directional distance function. Following this, in a sensitivity analysis, the paper evaluates the impact of different settings of directional vectors on the shadow prices. Applying the Mann–Whitney and Kruskal–Wallis non-parametric tests, factors affecting CO 2 prices are investigated. The variation of CO 2 shadow prices across the WWTPs evaluated argues in favour of a market-based approach to CO 2 mitigation as opposed to command-and-control regulation. The paper argues that the estimation of the shadow price of CO 2 for non-power enterprises can provide incentives for reducing GHG emissions

  19. A novel model for Time-Series Data Clustering Based on piecewise SVD and BIRCH for Stock Data Analysis on Hadoop Platform

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ibgtc Bowala

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available With the rapid growth of financial markets, analyzers are paying more attention on predictions. Stock data are time series data, with huge amounts. Feasible solution for handling the increasing amount of data is to use a cluster for parallel processing, and Hadoop parallel computing platform is a typical representative. There are various statistical models for forecasting time series data, but accurate clusters are a pre-requirement. Clustering analysis for time series data is one of the main methods for mining time series data for many other analysis processes. However, general clustering algorithms cannot perform clustering for time series data because series data has a special structure and a high dimensionality has highly co-related values due to high noise level. A novel model for time series clustering is presented using BIRCH, based on piecewise SVD, leading to a novel dimension reduction approach. Highly co-related features are handled using SVD with a novel approach for dimensionality reduction in order to keep co-related behavior optimal and then use BIRCH for clustering. The algorithm is a novel model that can handle massive time series data. Finally, this new model is successfully applied to real stock time series data of Yahoo finance with satisfactory results.

  20. Power transmission pricing: issues and international experience

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bodenhoefer, H.J.; Wohlgemuth, N.

    2001-01-01

    A key aspect of electricity industry reorganization is transmission pricing because it heavily influences the degree of effective competition in 'liberalized' electricity markets. this paper presents an overview transmission pricing models, of issues related to an effective design of a transmission pricing approach, and presents approaches implemented internationally. A conclusion is that, due to the great number of institutional designs of electricity market organizations, particularly in Europe, it will be difficult to design/implement a model of cross-border transmission pricing that is capable of inducing a high degree of non-discriminatory international competition in electricity markets. (author)

  1. Effect of Packaging Method and Storage Time on Physicochemical Characteristics of Dry-Cured Pork Neck Products at 10°C

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Il-Suk Kim

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Dry-cured pork neck samples were stored at 10°C for 90 days under vacuum packaging (VP or modified atmosphere packaging (MAP; 25% CO2+75% N2 conditions. The pH, moisture, water activity, total aerobic bacteria, and Enterobacteriaceae counts of dry-cured pork neck products with MAP were significantly lower than those with VP (p60 days of storage were lower than those at Day 1. In conclusion, despite presenting higher lipid oxidation, the samples stored in packages containing 25% CO2 for 90 days at 10°C have lower bacterial counts than vacuum-packed samples. Therefore, further studies should be performed on the packaging of dry-cured meat at adjusted concentrations of CO2.

  2. Determinants Of Foreign Direct Investment In Mauritius Evidence From Time Series Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Medha Kisto

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Over the last two decades Foreign Direct Investment FDI claimed an impressive economic record as it enables economy to transit from an agrarian to knowledge based economy. This paper focuses on the determinants and impact of FDI in Mauritius using annual time series data from 1975 through 2015. The Vector Error Correction Model VECM analysis reveals that macroeconomic variables namely inflation rates and exchange rate are among the major and important factor that affect FDI in Mauritius over this period of time. Exchange rate exhibited negative significant influence on FDI while interest rate affects FDI positively. The study therefore recommends that government should continue to diversify the export and tourism markets ensure stable macroeconomic policies implement reforms on doing business increase its expenditure in the area of infrastructural development and redirect FDI in productive sector of the economy as ways to accelerate the growth of Mauritian economy.

  3. Predicting outgrowth and inactivation of Clostridium perfringens in meat products during low temperature long time heat treatment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Duan, Zhi; Hansen, Terese Holst; Hansen, Tina Beck

    2016-01-01

    With low temperature long time (LTLT) cooking it can take hours for meat to reach a final core temperature above 53 °C and germination followed by growth of Clostridium perfringens is a concern. Available and new growth data in meats including 154 lag times (tlag), 224 maximum specific growth rates...... (μmax) and 25 maximum population densities (Nmax) were used to developed a model to predict growth of C. perfringens during the coming-up time of LTLT cooking. New data were generate in 26 challenge tests with chicken (pH 6.8) and pork (pH 5.6) at two different slowly increasing temperature (SIT...... the SIT profiles. Similar results were found for non-heated and heated spores in chicken, whereas in pork C. perfringens 790-94 increased less than 1 log CFU/g. At 53 °C C. perfringens 790-94 was log-linearly inactivated. Observed and predicted concentrations of C. perfringens, at the time when 53 °C (log...

  4. THE EFFECT OF AGROCLIMATIC FACTORS ON CASH CROPS PRODUCTION IN NIGERIA.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    KAMIL AKINTUNDE

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available This study examined the effects of agroclimatic factors on the yield of cash crops in Nigeria and other variables such as producer prices, exchange rate and level of national income (GDP. The effects of total rainfall, mean temperature, sunshine hour, relative humidity, radiation, exchange rate and GDP on the yields of three cash crops (Cocoa, Palm Kernel and Palm Oil were estimated for the period 1970-2003 in Nigeria. The methods of analysis employed in the study were mainly error-correction model (ECM within the context of co-integration theory. The results showed that all the variables are not stationary at their levels and thus, a need for differencing once to attain stationary. Statistical significance of the error-correction terms for the three produce validates the existence of an equilibrium relationship among the variables in each of these co-integrating vectors. However, producer price, temperature and GDP were the most significant factors influencing the yield of cocoa while only exchange rate was the most significant factors for the palm produce.

  5. Introduction to Time Series Modeling

    CERN Document Server

    Kitagawa, Genshiro

    2010-01-01

    In time series modeling, the behavior of a certain phenomenon is expressed in relation to the past values of itself and other covariates. Since many important phenomena in statistical analysis are actually time series and the identification of conditional distribution of the phenomenon is an essential part of the statistical modeling, it is very important and useful to learn fundamental methods of time series modeling. Illustrating how to build models for time series using basic methods, "Introduction to Time Series Modeling" covers numerous time series models and the various tools f

  6. Model documentation: Natural gas transmission and distribution model of the National Energy Modeling System. Volume 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1995-01-01

    The Natural Gas Transmission and Distribution Model (NGTDM) is the component of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) that is used to represent the domestic natural gas transmission and distribution system. NEMS was developed in the Office of integrated Analysis and Forecasting of the Energy information Administration (EIA). NEMS is the third in a series of computer-based, midterm energy modeling systems used since 1974 by the EIA and its predecessor, the Federal Energy Administration, to analyze domestic energy-economy markets and develop projections. The NGTDM is the model within the NEMS that represents the transmission, distribution, and pricing of natural gas. The model also includes representations of the end-use demand for natural gas, the production of domestic natural gas, and the availability of natural gas traded on the international market based on information received from other NEMS models. The NGTDM determines the flow of natural gas in an aggregate, domestic pipeline network, connecting domestic and foreign supply regions with 12 demand regions. The methodology employed allows the analysis of impacts of regional capacity constraints in the interstate natural gas pipeline network and the identification of pipeline capacity expansion requirements. There is an explicit representation of core and noncore markets for natural gas transmission and distribution services, and the key components of pipeline tariffs are represented in a pricing algorithm. Natural gas pricing and flow patterns are derived by obtaining a market equilibrium across the three main elements of the natural gas market: the supply element, the demand element, and the transmission and distribution network that links them. The NGTDM consists of four modules: the Annual Flow Module, the Capacity F-expansion Module, the Pipeline Tariff Module, and the Distributor Tariff Module. A model abstract is provided in Appendix A

  7. Model documentation: Natural gas transmission and distribution model of the National Energy Modeling System. Volume 1

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1995-02-17

    The Natural Gas Transmission and Distribution Model (NGTDM) is the component of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) that is used to represent the domestic natural gas transmission and distribution system. NEMS was developed in the Office of integrated Analysis and Forecasting of the Energy information Administration (EIA). NEMS is the third in a series of computer-based, midterm energy modeling systems used since 1974 by the EIA and its predecessor, the Federal Energy Administration, to analyze domestic energy-economy markets and develop projections. The NGTDM is the model within the NEMS that represents the transmission, distribution, and pricing of natural gas. The model also includes representations of the end-use demand for natural gas, the production of domestic natural gas, and the availability of natural gas traded on the international market based on information received from other NEMS models. The NGTDM determines the flow of natural gas in an aggregate, domestic pipeline network, connecting domestic and foreign supply regions with 12 demand regions. The methodology employed allows the analysis of impacts of regional capacity constraints in the interstate natural gas pipeline network and the identification of pipeline capacity expansion requirements. There is an explicit representation of core and noncore markets for natural gas transmission and distribution services, and the key components of pipeline tariffs are represented in a pricing algorithm. Natural gas pricing and flow patterns are derived by obtaining a market equilibrium across the three main elements of the natural gas market: the supply element, the demand element, and the transmission and distribution network that links them. The NGTDM consists of four modules: the Annual Flow Module, the Capacity F-expansion Module, the Pipeline Tariff Module, and the Distributor Tariff Module. A model abstract is provided in Appendix A.

  8. Error Correcting Codes

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Journals; Resonance – Journal of Science Education; Volume 2; Issue 3. Error Correcting Codes - Reed Solomon Codes. Priti Shankar. Series Article Volume 2 Issue 3 March ... Author Affiliations. Priti Shankar1. Department of Computer Science and Automation, Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore 560 012, India ...

  9. Control of human pathogenic Yersinia enterocolitica in minced meat: Comparative analysis of different interventions using a risk assessment approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Van Damme, I.; De Zutter, L.; Jacxsens, L.

    2017-01-01

    . enterocolitica in minced meat produced in industrial meat processing plants. The model described the production of minced pork starting from the contamination of pig carcasses with pathogenic Y. enterocolitica just before chilling. The endpoints of the assessment were (i) the proportion of 0.5 kg minced meat packages...... contamination and different decontamination procedures of carcasses have an important effect on the proportion of highly contaminated minced meat packages at the end of storage. The addition of pork cheeks and minimal quantities of tonsillar tissue into minced meat also had a large effect on the endpoint......This study aimed to evaluate the effect of different processing scenarios along the farm-to-fork chain on the contamination of minced pork with human pathogenic Y. enterocolitica. A modular process risk model (MPRM) was used to perform the assessment of the concentrations of pathogenic Y...

  10. Food Prices Transmission In Rwanda: Econometric Analysis

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ahavugimana

    (2010) found that if markets are efficient and policies are not an obstacle to their operation, changes in the world price of any given commodity should be similarly reflected in changes in domestic prices – phenomenon known as 'price transmission'. In many poor countries, the recent increases in prices of staple foods have ...

  11. [Development and application of real-time PCR for identification and detection of horse meat in animal-origin products].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Nan; Wang, Jiahui; Shen, Qing; Han, Chunhui; Zhang, Jing; Li, Fengqin; Xu, Jin; Jiang, Tao

    2013-11-01

    To develop a real-time PCR method for identification and detection of domestic horse meat (Equus caballus) in animal-origin products. The primer and TaqMan-probe was designed and synthesized according to the EU reference laboratory and 87 bp fragments was amplified for horse ingredients. The specificity and sensitivity was tested by artificially spiked horse meat into other domestic meat, such as cattle, sheep, pork, chicken, duck and rabbit. 122 samples of cattle and sheep products were random collected in Beijing market and the detection of horse meat was carried out. The real-time PCR in this study has high specificity and sensitivity for horse meat. No cross-reaction was observed between the horse and sheep, pork, chicken, duck and rabbit meat. There was little cross reaction between horse and cattle when the CT value reach 33. 81. The method can detect 0.1% of horse meat mixed with other domestic animal-origin products. No horse meat ingredients were detected in 122 samples in this survey. There was no horse meat mixed into cattle and sheep products in Beijing marked.

  12. The effect of pale, soft and exudative meat on the quality of canned pork in gravy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Florowski, Tomasz; Florowska, Anna; Chmiel, Marta; Adamczak, Lech; Pietrzak, Dorota; Ruchlicka, Magdalena

    2017-01-01

    The objective of the study was to evaluate the use of PSE meat in the production of sterilized pork type canned meat in its own gravy. Canned meat products were produced with 50% of PSE meat as well as with 100% PSE meat, and compared with canned meat products of good quality (RFN). It was found that decreased quality of PSE meat had a small impact on the quality of canned meat products. Substitution of both 50% as well as the total quantity of RFN meat with PSE meat did not affect the course of the sterilization process, neither increase the quantity of excreted fat and jelly in canned meat. It also had no effect on the instrumentally-measured parameters of texture and neither did it affect different sensory quality features, including the overall desirability of the product. The PSE canned meat product were characterized by higher values of L* and b* color parameters. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. The relationship between oil price shocks and China's macro-economy. An empirical analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Du, Limin; Yanan, He; Wei; Chu

    2010-01-01

    This paper investigates the relationship between the world oil price and China's macro-economy based on a monthly time series from 1995:1 to 2008:12, using the method of multivariate vector autoregression (VAR). The results show that the world oil price affects the economic growth and inflation of China significantly, and the impact is non-linear. On the other hand, China's economic activity fails to affect the world oil price, which means that the world oil price is still exogenous with respect to China's macro-economy in time series sense, and China has not yet had an oil pricing power in the world oil markets. The structural stability tests demonstrate that there is a structural break in the VAR model because of the reforms of China's oil pricing mechanism, thus it is more appropriate to break the whole sample into different sub-samples for the estimation of the model. (author)

  14. Do structural oil-market shocks affect stock prices?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Apergis, Nicholas; Miller, Stephen M.

    2009-01-01

    This paper investigates how explicit structural shocks that characterize the endogenous character of oil price changes affect stock-market returns in a sample of eight countries - Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States. For each country, the analysis proceeds in two steps. First, modifying the procedure of Kilian [Not All Oil Price Shocks are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market. American Economic Review.], we employ a vector error-correction or vector autoregressive model to decompose oil-price changes into three components: oil-supply shocks, global aggregate-demand shocks, and global oil-demand shocks. The last component relates to specific idiosyncratic features of the oil market, such as changes in the precautionary demand concerning the uncertainty about the availability of future oil supplies. Second, recovering the oil-supply shocks, global aggregate-demand shocks, and global oil-demand shocks from the first analysis, we then employ a vector autoregressive model to determine the effects of these structural shocks on the stock market returns in our sample of eight countries. We find that international stock market returns do not respond in a large way to oil market shocks. That is, the significant effects that exist prove small in magnitude. (author)

  15. Error of quantum-logic simulation via vector-soliton collisions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Janutka, Andrzej

    2007-01-01

    In a concept of simulating the quantum logic with vector solitons by the author (Janutka 2006 J. Phys. A: Math. Gen. 39 12505), the soliton polarization is thought of as a state vector of a system of cebits (classical counterparts of qubits) switched via collisions with other solitons. The advantage of this method of information processing compared to schemes using linear optics is the possibility of the determination of the information-register state in a single measurement. Minimization of the information-processing error for different optical realizations of the logical systems is studied in the framework of a quantum analysis of soliton fluctuations. The problem is considered with relevance to general difficulties of the quantum error-correction schemes for the classical analogies of the quantum-information processing

  16. A Course in Time Series Analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Peña, Daniel; Tsay, Ruey S

    2011-01-01

    New statistical methods and future directions of research in time series A Course in Time Series Analysis demonstrates how to build time series models for univariate and multivariate time series data. It brings together material previously available only in the professional literature and presents a unified view of the most advanced procedures available for time series model building. The authors begin with basic concepts in univariate time series, providing an up-to-date presentation of ARIMA models, including the Kalman filter, outlier analysis, automatic methods for building ARIMA models, a

  17. China’s Stock Market Integration with a Leading Power and a Close Neighbor

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zheng Yi

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Current integration and co-movement among international stock markets has been boosted by increased globalization of the world economy, and profit-chasing capital surfing across borders. With a reputation as the fastest growing economy in the world, China’s stock market has continued gaining momentum during recent years and incurred growing attention from academicians, as well as practitioners. Taking into account economic and geographical considerations, the US and Hong Kong are considerably the most comparable stock markets to China. The usual vector error correction model (VECM could overlook the long memory feature of cointegration residual series, which can in turn exert bias on the resulting inferences. To overcome its limitations, we employ a fractionally integrated VECM (FIVECM in this paper to investigate the long-term cointegration relations binding China’s stock market to the aforementioned stock markets. In addition, by augmenting the FIVECM with multivariate GARCH model, the return transmission and volatility spillover between market return series were revealed simultaneously. Our empirical results show that China’s stock market is fractionally cointegrated with the two markets, and it appears that China’s stock market has stronger ties with its neighboring Hong Kong market than with the world superpower, the US market.

  18. Dynamical behavior of an epidemic model for a vector-borne disease with direct transmission

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cai Liming; Li Xuezhi; Li Zhaoqiang

    2013-01-01

    An epidemic model of a vector-borne disease with direct transmission is investigated. The reproduction number (R 0 ) of the model is obtained. Rigorous qualitative analysis of the model reveals the presence of the phenomenon of backward bifurcation (where the stable disease-free equilibrium (DFE) coexists with a stable endemic equilibrium when the reproduction number of the disease is less than unity) in the standard incidence model. The phenomenon shows that the classical epidemiological requirement of having the reproduction number less than unity is no longer sufficient, although necessary, for effectively controlling the spread of some vector-borne diseases in a community. The backward bifurcation phenomenon can be removed by substituting the standard incidence with a bilinear mass action incidence. By using Lyapunov function theory and LaSalle invariance principle, it is shown that the unique endemic equilibrium for the model with a mass action incidence is globally stable if the reproduction number R mass is greater than one in feasible region. This suggests that the use of standard incidence in modelling some vector-borne diseases with direct transmission results in the presence of backward bifurcation. Numerical simulations analyze the effect of the direct transmission and the disease-induced death rate on dynamics of the disease transmission, and also verify our analyzed results.

  19. Online Multi-Spectral Meat Inspection

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Jannik Boll; Larsen, Anders Boesen Lindbo

    2013-01-01

    We perform an explorative study on multi-spectral image data from a prototype device developed for fast online quality inspection of meat products. Because the camera setup is built for speed, we sacrifice exact pixel correspondences between the different bands of the multi-spectral images. Our...... work is threefold as we 1) investigate the color distributions and construct a model to describe pork loins, 2) classify the different components in pork loins (meat, fat, membrane), and 3) detect foreign objects on the surface of pork loins. Our investigation shows that the color distributions can...

  20. Effects of dating errors on nonparametric trend analyses of speleothem time series

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Mudelsee

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available A fundamental problem in paleoclimatology is to take fully into account the various error sources when examining proxy records with quantitative methods of statistical time series analysis. Records from dated climate archives such as speleothems add extra uncertainty from the age determination to the other sources that consist in measurement and proxy errors. This paper examines three stalagmite time series of oxygen isotopic composition (δ18O from two caves in western Germany, the series AH-1 from the Atta Cave and the series Bu1 and Bu4 from the Bunker Cave. These records carry regional information about past changes in winter precipitation and temperature. U/Th and radiocarbon dating reveals that they cover the later part of the Holocene, the past 8.6 thousand years (ka. We analyse centennial- to millennial-scale climate trends by means of nonparametric Gasser–Müller kernel regression. Error bands around fitted trend curves are determined by combining (1 block bootstrap resampling to preserve noise properties (shape, autocorrelation of the δ18O residuals and (2 timescale simulations (models StalAge and iscam. The timescale error influences on centennial- to millennial-scale trend estimation are not excessively large. We find a "mid-Holocene climate double-swing", from warm to cold to warm winter conditions (6.5 ka to 6.0 ka to 5.1 ka, with warm–cold amplitudes of around 0.5‰ δ18O; this finding is documented by all three records with high confidence. We also quantify the Medieval Warm Period (MWP, the Little Ice Age (LIA and the current warmth. Our analyses cannot unequivocally support the conclusion that current regional winter climate is warmer than that during the MWP.

  1. Have oil and gas prices got separated?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Erdős, Péter

    2012-01-01

    This paper applies vector error correction models that show that oil and natural gas prices decoupled around 2009. Before 2009, US and UK gas prices had a long-term equilibrium with crude prices to which gas prices always reverted after exogenous shocks. Both US and UK gas prices adjusted to the crude oil price individually, and departure from the equilibrium gas price on one continent resulted in a similar departure on the other. After an exogenous shock, the adjustment between US and UK gas prices took approximately 20 weeks on average, and the convergence was mediated mainly by crude oil with a necessary condition that arbitrage across the Atlantic was possible. After 2009, however, the UK gas price has remained integrated with oil price, but the US gas price decoupled from crude oil price and the European gas price, as the Atlantic arbitrage has halted. The oversupply from shale gas production has not been mitigated by North American export, as there has been no liquefying and export capacity. - Highlights: ► VEC models are applied to investigate the relationship between oil and natural gas prices. ► While natural gas prices in Europe and Asia react to oil price, US gas price decoupled from oil in 2009. ► Since 2009, the US gas price has decoupled from the European and Asian gas prices.

  2. Time series analysis of the behavior of brazilian natural rubber

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antônio Donizette de Oliveira

    2009-03-01

    Full Text Available The natural rubber is a non-wood product obtained of the coagulation of some lattices of forest species, being Hevea brasiliensis the main one. Native from the Amazon Region, this species was already known by the Indians before the discovery of America. The natural rubber became a product globally valued due to its multiple applications in the economy, being its almost perfect substitute the synthetic rubber derived from the petroleum. Similarly to what happens with other countless products the forecast of future prices of the natural rubber has been object of many studies. The use of models of forecast of univariate timeseries stands out as the more accurate and useful to reduce the uncertainty in the economic decision making process. This studyanalyzed the historical series of prices of the Brazilian natural rubber (R$/kg, in the Jan/99 - Jun/2006 period, in order tocharacterize the rubber price behavior in the domestic market; estimated a model for the time series of monthly natural rubberprices; and foresaw the domestic prices of the natural rubber, in the Jul/2006 - Jun/2007 period, based on the estimated models.The studied models were the ones belonging to the ARIMA family. The main results were: the domestic market of the natural rubberis expanding due to the growth of the world economy; among the adjusted models, the ARIMA (1,1,1 model provided the bestadjustment of the time series of prices of the natural rubber (R$/kg; the prognosis accomplished for the series supplied statistically adequate fittings.

  3. Predicting Jakarta composite index using hybrid of fuzzy time series and support vector regression models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Febrian Umbara, Rian; Tarwidi, Dede; Budi Setiawan, Erwin

    2018-03-01

    The paper discusses the prediction of Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) in Indonesia Stock Exchange. The study is based on JCI historical data for 1286 days to predict the value of JCI one day ahead. This paper proposes predictions done in two stages., The first stage using Fuzzy Time Series (FTS) to predict values of ten technical indicators, and the second stage using Support Vector Regression (SVR) to predict the value of JCI one day ahead, resulting in a hybrid prediction model FTS-SVR. The performance of this combined prediction model is compared with the performance of the single stage prediction model using SVR only. Ten technical indicators are used as input for each model.

  4. Option-Based Estimation of the Price of Co-Skewness and Co-Kurtosis Risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christoffersen, Peter; Fournier, Mathieu; Fournier, Mathieu

    -neutral second moments, and the price of co-kurtosis risk corresponds to the spread between the physical and the risk-neutral third moments. The option-based estimates of the prices of risk lead to reasonable values of the associated risk premia. An out-of-sample analysis of factor models with co-skewness and co......We show that the prices of risk for factors that are nonlinear in the market return are readily obtained using index option prices. We apply this insight to the price of co-skewness and co-kurtosis risk. The price of co-skewness risk corresponds to the spread between the physical and the risk......-kurtosis risk indicates that the new estimates of the price of risk improve the models performance. Models with higher-order market moments also robustly outperform standard competitors such as the CAPM and the Fama-French model....

  5. Option-Based Estimation of the Price of Co-Skewness and Co-Kurtosis Risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christoffersen, Peter; Fournier, Mathieu; Jacobs, Kris

    -neutral second moments, and the price of co-kurtosis risk corresponds to the spread between the physical and the risk-neutral third moments. The option-based estimates of the prices of risk lead to reasonable values of the associated risk premia. An out-of-sample analysis of factor models with co-skewness and co......We show that the prices of risk for factors that are nonlinear in the market return are readily obtained using index option prices. We apply this insight to the price of co-skewness and co-kurtosis risk. The price of co-skewness risk corresponds to the spread between the physical and the risk......-kurtosis risk indicates that the new estimates of the price of risk improve the models' performance. Models with higher-order market moments also robustly outperform standard competitors such as the CAPM and the Fama-French model....

  6. Modeling and analysis of a decentralized electricity market: An integrated simulation/optimization approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sarıca, Kemal; Kumbaroğlu, Gürkan; Or, Ilhan

    2012-01-01

    In this study, a model is developed to investigate the implications of an hourly day-ahead competitive power market on generator profits, electricity prices, availability and supply security. An integrated simulation/optimization approach is employed integrating a multi-agent simulation model with two alternative optimization models. The simulation model represents interactions between power generator, system operator, power user and power transmitter agents while the network flow optimization model oversees and optimizes the electricity flows, dispatches generators based on two alternative approaches used in the modeling of the underlying transmission network: a linear minimum cost network flow model and a non-linear alternating current optimal power flow model. Supply, demand, transmission, capacity and other technological constraints are thereby enforced. The transmission network, on which the scenario analyses are carried out, includes 30 bus, 41 lines, 9 generators, and 21 power users. The scenarios examined in the analysis cover various settings of transmission line capacities/fees, and hourly learning algorithms. Results provide insight into key behavioral and structural aspects of a decentralized electricity market under network constraints and reveal the importance of using an AC network instead of a simplified linear network flow approach. -- Highlights: ► An agent-based simulation model with an AC transmission environment with a day-ahead market. ► Physical network parameters have dramatic effects over price levels and stability. ► Due to AC nature of transmission network, adaptive agents have more local market power than minimal cost network flow. ► Behavior of the generators has significant effect over market price formation, as pointed out by bidding strategies. ► Transmission line capacity and fee policies are found to be very effective in price formation in the market.

  7. Response of residential electricity demand to price: The effect of measurement error

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Alberini, Anna [Department of Agricultural Economics, University of Maryland (United States); Centre for Energy Policy and Economics (CEPE), ETH Zurich (Switzerland); Gibson Institute and Institute for a Sustainable World, School of Biological Sciences, Queen' s University Belfast, Northern Ireland (United Kingdom); Filippini, Massimo, E-mail: mfilippini@ethz.ch [Centre for Energy Policy and Economics (CEPE), ETH Zurich (Switzerland); Department of Economics, University of Lugano (Switzerland)

    2011-09-15

    In this paper we present an empirical analysis of the residential demand for electricity using annual aggregate data at the state level for 48 US states from 1995 to 2007. Earlier literature has examined residential energy consumption at the state level using annual or monthly data, focusing on the variation in price elasticities of demand across states or regions, but has failed to recognize or address two major issues. The first is that, when fitting dynamic panel models, the lagged consumption term in the right-hand side of the demand equation is endogenous. This has resulted in potentially inconsistent estimates of the long-run price elasticity of demand. The second is that energy price is likely mismeasured. To address these issues, we estimate a dynamic partial adjustment model using the Kiviet corrected Least Square Dummy Variables (LSDV) (1995) and the Blundell-Bond (1998) estimators. We find that the long-term elasticities produced by the Blundell-Bond system GMM methods are largest, and that from the bias-corrected LSDV are greater than that from the conventional LSDV. From an energy policy point of view, the results obtained using the Blundell-Bond estimator where we instrument for price imply that a carbon tax or other price-based policy may be effective in discouraging residential electricity consumption and hence curbing greenhouse gas emissions in an electricity system mainly based on coal and gas power plants. - Research Highlights: > Updated information on price elasticities for the US energy policy. > Taking into account measurement error in the price variable increase price elasticity. > Room for discouraging residential electricity consumption using price increases.

  8. Response of residential electricity demand to price: The effect of measurement error

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alberini, Anna; Filippini, Massimo

    2011-01-01

    In this paper we present an empirical analysis of the residential demand for electricity using annual aggregate data at the state level for 48 US states from 1995 to 2007. Earlier literature has examined residential energy consumption at the state level using annual or monthly data, focusing on the variation in price elasticities of demand across states or regions, but has failed to recognize or address two major issues. The first is that, when fitting dynamic panel models, the lagged consumption term in the right-hand side of the demand equation is endogenous. This has resulted in potentially inconsistent estimates of the long-run price elasticity of demand. The second is that energy price is likely mismeasured. To address these issues, we estimate a dynamic partial adjustment model using the Kiviet corrected Least Square Dummy Variables (LSDV) (1995) and the Blundell-Bond (1998) estimators. We find that the long-term elasticities produced by the Blundell-Bond system GMM methods are largest, and that from the bias-corrected LSDV are greater than that from the conventional LSDV. From an energy policy point of view, the results obtained using the Blundell-Bond estimator where we instrument for price imply that a carbon tax or other price-based policy may be effective in discouraging residential electricity consumption and hence curbing greenhouse gas emissions in an electricity system mainly based on coal and gas power plants. - Research Highlights: → Updated information on price elasticities for the US energy policy. → Taking into account measurement error in the price variable increase price elasticity. → Room for discouraging residential electricity consumption using price increases.

  9. European citizen and consumer attitudes and preferences regarding beef and pork.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verbeke, Wim; Pérez-Cueto, Federico J A; Barcellos, Marcia D de; Krystallis, Athanasios; Grunert, Klaus G

    2010-02-01

    This paper presents the combined mid-term findings of the consumer research components of two EU Sixth Framework Programme integrated projects concerning meat, ProSafeBeef and Q-PorkChains. The consumer pillar of ProSafeBeef carried out eight focus group discussions in May 2008, in France, Germany, Spain and the UK. Q-PorkChains conducted a large-scale, web-based, consumer survey in January 2008 in Belgium, Denmark, Germany, Greece and Poland. The first project provides a set of qualitative data from a small cohort of focus groups and the second a set of quantitative data from a larger consumer sample. This paper draws together the main findings of both projects and provides a comprehensive overview of European citizens' and consumers' attitudes towards and preferences regarding beef and pork. In general, consumers consider meat to be a healthy and important component of the diet. Consumers support the development of technologies that can improve the health attributes of meat products and guarantee eating quality, but they have a negative view of what they see to be excessive manipulation and lack of naturalness in the production and processing of beef products. In the Q-PorkChains study consumer and citizen segments are identified and profiled. Consumer segments were built upon the frequency and variety of pork consumption. The citizen segments were built upon their attitudes towards pig production systems. Overall, the relationship between individuals' views as citizens and their behaviour as consumers was found to be quite weak and did not appear to greatly or systematically influence meat-buying habits. Future studies in both projects will concentrate on consumers' acceptance of innovative meat product concepts and products, with the aim of boosting consumer trust and invigorating the European beef and pork industries.

  10. Effects of series compensation on spot price power markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shrestha, G.B.; Wang Feng

    2005-01-01

    The operation of a deregulated power market becomes more complex as the generation scheduling is dependent on suppliers' and consumers' bids. With large number of transactions in the power market changing in time, it is more likely for some transmission lines to face congestion. Series compensation, such as TCSC, with its ability to directly control the power flow can be very helpful to improve the operation of transmission networks. The effects of TCSC on the operation of a spot price power market are studied in this paper using the modified IEEE 14-bus system. Optimal Power Flow incorporating TCSC is used to implement the spot price market. Linear bids are used to model suppliers' and consumers' bids. Issues of location and cost of TCSC are discussed. The effects of levels of TCSC compensation on wide range of system quantities are studied. The effects on the total social benefit, the spot prices, transmission congestion, total generation and consumption, benefit to individual supplier and consumer etc. are discussed. It is demonstrated that though use of TCSC makes the system more efficient and augments competition in the market, it is not easy to establish general relationships between the levels of compensation and various market quantities. Simulation studies like these can be used to assess the effects of TCSC in specific systems. (Author)

  11. Convergence of European spot market prices for natural gas. A Real-Time Analysis of market integration using the Kalman filter

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Siliverstovs, Boriss; Neumann, Anne

    2005-01-01

    This paper provides a textbook example of an econometric analysis of the integration between two commodity markets and the subsequent price convergence or absence thereof. We analyze price relations between spot markets for natural gas in Europe. The European market for natural gas is currently undergoing a liberalization process with the aim of creating a single, unified market. We use time-varying coefficient estimation models, applying the Kalman filter to test whether price convergence between different locations is really taking place. Our results reveal that the construction of a pipeline between the UK and Zeebrugge (Belgium) has lead to almost perfect price convergence between theses locations; on the other hand, liberalization on the European continent does not seem to be working so far. (Author)

  12. Exploiting the cointegration properties of U.S. pork - related markets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Babula, Ronald; Lund, Mogens

    We apply methods of the cointegrated vector autoregression or VAR model to quar-terly U.S. pork-related markets, from the farm gate upstream, to the downstream markets for processed pork and sausage. This study extends prior VAR econometric work by concentrating on the upstream/downstream relatio......We apply methods of the cointegrated vector autoregression or VAR model to quar-terly U.S. pork-related markets, from the farm gate upstream, to the downstream markets for processed pork and sausage. This study extends prior VAR econometric work by concentrating on the upstream....../downstream relationships between the U.S. farm market for pork and markets for processed pork and sausage. Results include a U.S. long run demand for pork, as well as empirical estimates of specific market events on these three pork-related markets....

  13. a Landsat Time-Series Stacks Model for Detection of Cropland Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, J.; Chen, J.; Zhang, J.

    2017-09-01

    Global, timely, accurate and cost-effective cropland monitoring with a fine spatial resolution will dramatically improve our understanding of the effects of agriculture on greenhouse gases emissions, food safety, and human health. Time-series remote sensing imagery have been shown particularly potential to describe land cover dynamics. The traditional change detection techniques are often not capable of detecting land cover changes within time series that are severely influenced by seasonal difference, which are more likely to generate pseuso changes. Here,we introduced and tested LTSM ( Landsat time-series stacks model), an improved Continuous Change Detection and Classification (CCDC) proposed previously approach to extract spectral trajectories of land surface change using a dense Landsat time-series stacks (LTS). The method is expected to eliminate pseudo changes caused by phenology driven by seasonal patterns. The main idea of the method is that using all available Landsat 8 images within a year, LTSM consisting of two term harmonic function are estimated iteratively for each pixel in each spectral band .LTSM can defines change area by differencing the predicted and observed Landsat images. The LTSM approach was compared with change vector analysis (CVA) method. The results indicated that the LTSM method correctly detected the "true change" without overestimating the "false" one, while CVA pointed out "true change" pixels with a large number of "false changes". The detection of change areas achieved an overall accuracy of 92.37 %, with a kappa coefficient of 0.676.

  14. Correction of Sample-Time Error for Time-Interleaved Sampling System Using Cubic Spline Interpolation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qin Guo-jie

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Sample-time errors can greatly degrade the dynamic range of a time-interleaved sampling system. In this paper, a novel correction technique employing a cubic spline interpolation is proposed for inter-channel sample-time error compensation. The cubic spline interpolation compensation filter is developed in the form of a finite-impulse response (FIR filter structure. The correction method of the interpolation compensation filter coefficients is deduced. A 4GS/s two-channel, time-interleaved ADC prototype system has been implemented to evaluate the performance of the technique. The experimental results showed that the correction technique is effective to attenuate the spurious spurs and improve the dynamic performance of the system.

  15. Statistical tools for analysis and modeling of cosmic populations and astronomical time series: CUDAHM and TSE

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loredo, Thomas; Budavari, Tamas; Scargle, Jeffrey D.

    2018-01-01

    This presentation provides an overview of open-source software packages addressing two challenging classes of astrostatistics problems. (1) CUDAHM is a C++ framework for hierarchical Bayesian modeling of cosmic populations, leveraging graphics processing units (GPUs) to enable applying this computationally challenging paradigm to large datasets. CUDAHM is motivated by measurement error problems in astronomy, where density estimation and linear and nonlinear regression must be addressed for populations of thousands to millions of objects whose features are measured with possibly complex uncertainties, potentially including selection effects. An example calculation demonstrates accurate GPU-accelerated luminosity function estimation for simulated populations of $10^6$ objects in about two hours using a single NVIDIA Tesla K40c GPU. (2) Time Series Explorer (TSE) is a collection of software in Python and MATLAB for exploratory analysis and statistical modeling of astronomical time series. It comprises a library of stand-alone functions and classes, as well as an application environment for interactive exploration of times series data. The presentation will summarize key capabilities of this emerging project, including new algorithms for analysis of irregularly-sampled time series.

  16. Direct cointegration testing in error-correction models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    F.R. Kleibergen (Frank); H.K. van Dijk (Herman)

    1994-01-01

    textabstractAbstract An error correction model is specified having only exact identified parameters, some of which reflect a possible departure from a cointegration model. Wald, likelihood ratio, and Lagrange multiplier statistics are derived to test for the significance of these parameters. The

  17. Pork: why we should not give it up completely

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Małgorzata Szamocka

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available It is commonly thought that cases of life shorter than the life expectancy for Poles, mainly due to atherosclerosis and certain malignancies, are caused by, among other factors, consumption of large quantities of meat, especially pork. However, essential statistical data do not confirm this hypothesis, as an average Pole eats 41,1 kg pork per year, compared to 66.1 kg eaten by Spaniards, 64.2 kg by Danes, 59.9 kg by Austrians, 53.3 kg by Germans, while the average life expectancy for female and male Poles is 80.1 years and 71.5 years, respectively, and that for female and male Western Europeans is 82,2 years and 75 years, respectively. Meat is a necessary component of human diet because of its unique chemical composition, nutritional value and content of complete protein with favorable proportions of amino acids. Pork, whose nutritional value and pro-health properties have improved over the last 20 years, has a lower content of saturated fatty acids (SAFA and a higher content of polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFA compared to beef. Compared to poultry meat, pork has a significantly better proportion of essential unsaturated fatty acids (EUFA, omega-3 (PUFA n-3 to omega-6 (PUFA n-6, whose excess is typical for the so-called “Western” diet. Cholesterol content is fairly similar in all parts of pork carcass, and it is much smaller than even 20 years ago. In comparison with other meat types, pork is characterized by 4–5 times higher content of vitamin B1. Pork is also characterized by a high content of readily available iron, a very often inadequately supplied mineral in humans. It is present in the quantity of 0.014 g/kg, which is higher than in poultry meat (0.009 g/kg but lower than in beef (0.026 g/kg. In 2015, the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC updated its classification of carcinogenic agents. Red meat and processed meat were classified by IARC to group 2.A: substances probably carcinogenic to humans

  18. Transmissão de preços e cointegração no mercado brasileiro de arroz

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andréia Cristina de Oliveira Adami

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available O objetivo do presente trabalho foi avaliar a dinâmica de formação de preços no mercado nacional de arroz em casca de modo a definir o processo de formação e intensidade do ajustamento (períodos em que se dá a transmissão de preços entre os principais mercados produtores (RS e MT. O conhecimento das relações de preços entre os mercados importante para o desenvolvimento de contratos de comercialização (contratos a termo e de futuro para o arroz e para a formulação (ou reformulação de políticas públicas para o setor. Como instrumental metodológico utilizou-se da modelagem de sries temporais (Modelos de Autorregressão Vetorial com Correção de Erro (VEC e causalidade de Granger. O resultado do teste de causalidade de Granger apontou que os preços do RS são importantes para prever os preços de MT. O modelo de transferência estimado com correção de erro mostrou que, para cada 1% de aumento na taxa de crescimento dos preços no RS, a taxa de crescimento dos preços em MT registrará, em mdia, aumento contemporâneo de 0,44% e em torno de 0,17% com um período de defasagem.The aim of this study is to evaluate the dynamics of pricing in the domestic market of paddy rice in order to define the process of prices formation and the adjustment intensity (periods in which the price transmission occurs among the major producing markets (Rio Grande do Sul and Mato Grosso states. The knowledge of price ratios between markets is important for the development of trading contracts (fixed-term and future contracts for rice and for the formulation (or reformulation of public policies for the sector. As a methodological tool, we used the modeling of time series (Auto-Regression Models with Vector Error Correction - VEC and Granger' causality. The Granger' causality test indicated that prices in the Rio Grande do Sul state are important to forecast prices in the Mato Grosso state. The model of transference estimated with an error

  19. Comparison of flavor changes in cooked-refrigerated beef, pork and chicken meat patties.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rhee, K S; Anderson, L M; Sams, A R

    2005-10-01

    Beef and pork longissimus dorsi (LD) and semimembranosus (SM) and chicken breast (B) and thigh (T) muscles excised 24 h postmortem were ground by muscle/species group, formed into patties, pan-fried, refrigerated for 0, 3 or 6 days, and evaluated by a trained sensory panel for intensity of specific flavors. The rate of decline in species-specific natural meat flavor intensity and the rate of increase in "cardboard" (CBD) flavor intensity during the first half of the 6-day storage were fastest for beef, while such decline and increase during the entire storage period were slowest for chicken B. Overall trends of natural meat flavor and CBD intensity changes for chicken T appeared more like those for the red meats than chicken B. It was concluded that, while flavor deterioration can occur in cooked-stored meats from all the species, quantitative or the magnitude of differences between species would depend on muscle types and sensory terms/method used.

  20. Parametric, nonparametric and parametric modelling of a chaotic circuit time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Timmer, J.; Rust, H.; Horbelt, W.; Voss, H. U.

    2000-09-01

    The determination of a differential equation underlying a measured time series is a frequently arising task in nonlinear time series analysis. In the validation of a proposed model one often faces the dilemma that it is hard to decide whether possible discrepancies between the time series and model output are caused by an inappropriate model or by bad estimates of parameters in a correct type of model, or both. We propose a combination of parametric modelling based on Bock's multiple shooting algorithm and nonparametric modelling based on optimal transformations as a strategy to test proposed models and if rejected suggest and test new ones. We exemplify this strategy on an experimental time series from a chaotic circuit where we obtain an extremely accurate reconstruction of the observed attractor.

  1. Affordability of alcohol as a key driver of alcohol demand in New Zealand: a co-integration analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wall, Martin; Casswell, Sally

    2013-01-01

    To investigate whether affordability of alcohol is an important determinant of alcohol consumption along with price. This will inform effective tax policy to influence consumption. Co-integration analysis was used to analyse relationship between real price, affordability and consumption. Changes in retail availability of wine in 1990 and beer in 1999 were also included in the models. The econometric approach taken allows identification of short- and long-term responses. Separate analyses were performed for wine, beer, spirits and ready-to-drinks (spirits based pre-mixed drinks). New Zealand 1988-2011. Quarterly data on price and alcohol available for consumption for wine, beer, spirits and ready-to-drinks. Price data were analysed as: real price (own price of alcohol relative to the price of other goods) and affordability (average earnings relative to own price). There was strong evidence for co-integration between wine and beer consumption and affordability. There was weaker evidence for co-integration between consumption and real price. The affordability of alcohol is more important than real price in determining consumption of alcohol. This suggests that affordability needs to be considered by policy makers when determining tax and pricing policies to reduce alcohol-related harm. © 2012 The Authors, Addiction © 2012 Society for the Study of Addiction.

  2. Detecting Chaos from Agricultural Product Price Time Series

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xin Su

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Analysis of the characteristics of agricultural product price volatility and trend forecasting are necessary to formulate and implement agricultural price control policies. Taking wholesale cabbage prices as an example, a multiple test methodology has been adopted to identify the nonlinearity, fractality, and chaos of the data. The approaches used include the R/S analysis, the BDS test, the power spectra, the recurrence plot, the largest Lyapunov exponent, the Kolmogorov entropy, and the correlation dimension. The results show that there is chaos in agricultural wholesale price data, which provides a good theoretical basis for selecting reasonable forecasting models as prediction techniques based on chaos theory can be applied to forecasting agricultural prices.

  3. Evolutionary modeling-based approach for model errors correction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Q. Wan

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available The inverse problem of using the information of historical data to estimate model errors is one of the science frontier research topics. In this study, we investigate such a problem using the classic Lorenz (1963 equation as a prediction model and the Lorenz equation with a periodic evolutionary function as an accurate representation of reality to generate "observational data."

    On the basis of the intelligent features of evolutionary modeling (EM, including self-organization, self-adaptive and self-learning, the dynamic information contained in the historical data can be identified and extracted by computer automatically. Thereby, a new approach is proposed to estimate model errors based on EM in the present paper. Numerical tests demonstrate the ability of the new approach to correct model structural errors. In fact, it can actualize the combination of the statistics and dynamics to certain extent.

  4. Dynamic analysis of spiral bevel and hypoid gears with high-order transmission errors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, J. J.; Shi, Z. H.; Zhang, H.; Li, T. X.; Nie, S. W.; Wei, B. Y.

    2018-03-01

    A new gear surface modification methodology based on curvature synthesis is proposed in this study to improve the transmission performance. The generated high-order transmission error (TE) for spiral bevel and hypoid gears is proved to reduce the vibration of geared-rotor system. The method is comprised of the following steps: Firstly, the fully conjugate gear surfaces with pinion flank modified according to the predesigned relative transmission movement are established based on curvature correction. Secondly, a 14-DOF geared-rotor system model considering backlash nonlinearity is used to evaluate the effect of different orders of TE on the dynamic performance a hypoid gear transmission system. For case study, numerical simulation is performed to illustrate the dynamic response of hypoid gear pair with parabolic, fourth-order and sixth-order transmission error derived. The results show that the parabolic TE curve has higher peak to peak amplitude compared to the other two types of TE. Thus, the excited dynamic response also shows larger amplitude at response peaks. Dynamic responses excited by fourth and sixth order TE also demonstrate distinct response components due to their different TE period which is expected to generate different sound quality or other acoustic characteristics.

  5. Essays on forecasting stationary and nonstationary economic time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bachmeier, Lance Joseph

    This dissertation consists of three essays. Chapter II considers the question of whether M2 growth can be used to forecast inflation at horizons of up to ten years. A vector error correction (VEC) model serves as our benchmark model. We find that M2 growth does have marginal predictive content for inflation at horizons of more than two years, but only when allowing for cointegration and when the cointegrating rank and vector are specified a priori. When estimating the cointegration vector or failing to impose cointegration, there is no longer evidence of causality running from M2 growth to inflation at any forecast horizon. Finally, we present evidence that M2 needs to be redefined, as forecasts of the VEC model using data on M2 observed after 1993 are worse than the forecasts of an autoregressive model of inflation. Chapter III reconsiders the evidence for a "rockets and feathers" effect in gasoline markets. We estimate an error correction model of gasoline prices using daily data for the period 1985--1998 and fail to find any evidence of asymmetry. We show that previous work suffered from two problems. First, nonstationarity in some of the regressors was ignored, leading to invalid inference. Second, the weekly data used in previous work leads to a temporal aggregation problem, and thus biased estimates of impulse response functions. Chapter IV tests for a forecasting relationship between the volume of litigation and macroeconomic variables. We analyze annual data for the period 1960--2000 on the number of cases filed, real GDP, real consumption expenditures, inflation, unemployment, and interest rates. Bivariate Granger causality tests show that several of the macroeconomic variables can be used to forecast the volume of litigation, but show no evidence that the volume of litigation can be used to forecast any of the macroeconomic variables. The analysis is then extended to bivariate and multivariate regression models, and we find similar evidence to that of the

  6. Effect of Nanoemulsified and Microencapsulated Mexican Oregano (Lippia graveolens Kunth) Essential Oil Coatings on Quality of Fresh Pork Meat.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hernández-Hernández, Elvia; Lira-Moreno, César Y; Guerrero-Legarreta, Isabel; Wild-Padua, Graciela; Di Pierro, Prospero; García-Almendárez, Blanca E; Regalado-González, Carlos

    2017-06-01

    Fresh meat is a highly perishable food. This work aimed to evaluate the influence of Mexican oregano (Lippia graveolens Kunth) incorporated into active coatings (ACs) spread on fresh pork meat as free (FEO), nanoemulsified (NEO), and microencapsulated (MEO) essential oil (EO), on its microbiological, physicochemical and sensory properties during 15 d at 4 ± 1 °C. Thymol and γ-terpinene were identified in the EO. In vitro effect of 2.85 mg EO/cm 2 was tested against Brochothrix thermosphacta, Micrococcus luteus, Lactobacillus plantarum, Pseudomonas fragi, and Salmonella Infantis. FEO antioxidant capacity (DPPH assay) was significantly higher than that of thymol, NEO and MEO (93.53%, 89.92%, 77.79%, and 78.50% inhibition, respectively), and similar to BHA (96.03%) and gallic acid (95.57%). FEO, NEO, and MEO ACs on meat caused growth inhibition of lactic acid bacteria (5 log population reduction) and Pseudomonas spp. (4 log reduction), whereas ≤1.5 log population reduction was observed for B. thermosphacta and Salmonella Infantis. Meat microbiota was more efficiently controlled by MEO than by FEO or NEO. ACs delayed lipid and oxymyoglobin oxidation of fresh pork meat. After 15 d of cold storage meat added with EO coatings was desirable for panelists, whereas untreated (UT) samples were undesirable. Active coatings are a significant alternative method for fresh meat preservation. © 2017 Institute of Food Technologists®.

  7. Method for decoupling error correction from privacy amplification

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lo, Hoi-Kwong [Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering and Department of Physics, University of Toronto, 10 King' s College Road, Toronto, Ontario, Canada, M5S 3G4 (Canada)

    2003-04-01

    In a standard quantum key distribution (QKD) scheme such as BB84, two procedures, error correction and privacy amplification, are applied to extract a final secure key from a raw key generated from quantum transmission. To simplify the study of protocols, it is commonly assumed that the two procedures can be decoupled from each other. While such a decoupling assumption may be valid for individual attacks, it is actually unproven in the context of ultimate or unconditional security, which is the Holy Grail of quantum cryptography. In particular, this means that the application of standard efficient two-way error-correction protocols like Cascade is not proven to be unconditionally secure. Here, I provide the first proof of such a decoupling principle in the context of unconditional security. The method requires Alice and Bob to share some initial secret string and use it to encrypt their communications in the error correction stage using one-time-pad encryption. Consequently, I prove the unconditional security of the interactive Cascade protocol proposed by Brassard and Salvail for error correction and modified by one-time-pad encryption of the error syndrome, followed by the random matrix protocol for privacy amplification. This is an efficient protocol in terms of both computational power and key generation rate. My proof uses the entanglement purification approach to security proofs of QKD. The proof applies to all adaptive symmetric methods for error correction, which cover all existing methods proposed for BB84. In terms of the net key generation rate, the new method is as efficient as the standard Shor-Preskill proof.

  8. Method for decoupling error correction from privacy amplification

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lo, Hoi-Kwong

    2003-01-01

    In a standard quantum key distribution (QKD) scheme such as BB84, two procedures, error correction and privacy amplification, are applied to extract a final secure key from a raw key generated from quantum transmission. To simplify the study of protocols, it is commonly assumed that the two procedures can be decoupled from each other. While such a decoupling assumption may be valid for individual attacks, it is actually unproven in the context of ultimate or unconditional security, which is the Holy Grail of quantum cryptography. In particular, this means that the application of standard efficient two-way error-correction protocols like Cascade is not proven to be unconditionally secure. Here, I provide the first proof of such a decoupling principle in the context of unconditional security. The method requires Alice and Bob to share some initial secret string and use it to encrypt their communications in the error correction stage using one-time-pad encryption. Consequently, I prove the unconditional security of the interactive Cascade protocol proposed by Brassard and Salvail for error correction and modified by one-time-pad encryption of the error syndrome, followed by the random matrix protocol for privacy amplification. This is an efficient protocol in terms of both computational power and key generation rate. My proof uses the entanglement purification approach to security proofs of QKD. The proof applies to all adaptive symmetric methods for error correction, which cover all existing methods proposed for BB84. In terms of the net key generation rate, the new method is as efficient as the standard Shor-Preskill proof

  9. Opportunistic error correction for mimo-ofdm: from theory to practice

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Shao, X.; Slump, Cornelis H.

    Opportunistic error correction based on fountain codes is especially designed for the MIMOOFDM system. The key point of this new method is the tradeoff between the code rate of error correcting codes and the number of sub-carriers in the channel vector to be discarded. By transmitting one

  10. Nonlinear Fluctuation Behavior of Financial Time Series Model by Statistical Physics System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wuyang Cheng

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available We develop a random financial time series model of stock market by one of statistical physics systems, the stochastic contact interacting system. Contact process is a continuous time Markov process; one interpretation of this model is as a model for the spread of an infection, where the epidemic spreading mimics the interplay of local infections and recovery of individuals. From this financial model, we study the statistical behaviors of return time series, and the corresponding behaviors of returns for Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index (SSECI and Hang Seng Index (HSI are also comparatively studied. Further, we investigate the Zipf distribution and multifractal phenomenon of returns and price changes. Zipf analysis and MF-DFA analysis are applied to investigate the natures of fluctuations for the stock market.

  11. Antioxidant activities of distiller dried grains with solubles as protein films containing tea extracts and their application in the packaging of pork meat.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Hyun-Ju; Lee, Ji-Hyeon; Won, Misun; Song, Kyung Bin

    2016-04-01

    Distiller dried grains with solubles (DDGS) as protein (DP) films were prepared. Additionally, to prepare anti-oxidant films, green tea extract (GTE), oolong tea extract (OTE), and black tea extract (BTE) were incorporated into the DP films. Consequently, the incorporation of the tea extracts did not alter the physical properties of the films much, whereas the antioxidant activities, such as ABTS and DPPH radical scavenging activities were observed. To apply the DP films containing tea extracts to food packaging, pork meat was wrapped with the films and stored at 4 °C for 10 d. During storage, the pork meat wrapped with the DP films containing GTE, OTE, and BTE had less lipid oxidation than did the control. Among the tea extracts, the DP film containing GTE had the greatest antioxidant activity. These results indicate that the DP films containing green tea extracts can be utilized as an anti-oxidative packaging material for pork meat. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Transmission dispatch and congestion management in open market systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fang, Risheng

    This thesis is located in the domain of electricity supply industry restructuring. It deals with emerging issues, whose understanding is essential to advancing knowledge of open access transmission theory and proceeds to develop approaches for solving the transmission dispatch and congestion management problem. An overview of current trends and experiences in utility restructuring and the main models for restructuring, as well as the classifications of system operators, is first presented. A fully unbundled competitive electricity market model, called the bilateral/multilateral trades model, is then developed. A survey of current research in transmission dispatch and congestion management is included with discussion of transmission capacity and ancillary services. A methodology for the power dispatch problem in a structure dominated by bilateral and multilateral transmission contracts is presented. Group structures are mathematically formulated and explored and three basic types of curtailment strategies proposed for use by market participants. A more complex model is then developed, which takes into account the co-existence of bilateral and multilateral contracts with pool type dynamic supplies and demands based on bids and market clearing prices. An integrated dispatch strategy to reconcile all three types of transactions (bilateral, multilateral and pool) is then developed. Prioritization of electricity transactions and related curtailment strategies are explored and a mechanism for coordination between market participants to achieve additional economic advantages is described. A theory of security based rescheduling is presented in order to investigate the security-related aspects of operation in an unbundled and deregulated system. The impact of post-contingency corrective capability on optimal rescheduling results has been identified and the advantage of incorporating post-contingency corrective rescheduling into the objective function demonstrated. Finally

  13. Estimating oil product demand in Indonesia using a cointegrating error correction model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dahl, C.

    2001-01-01

    Indonesia's long oil production history and large population mean that Indonesian oil reserves, per capita, are the lowest in OPEC and that, eventually, Indonesia will become a net oil importer. Policy-makers want to forestall this day, since oil revenue comprised around a quarter of both the government budget and foreign exchange revenues for the fiscal years 1997/98. To help policy-makers determine how economic growth and oil-pricing policy affect the consumption of oil products, we estimate the demand for six oil products and total petroleum consumption, using an error correction-cointegration approach, and compare it with estimates on a lagged endogenous model using data for 1970-95. (author)

  14. A survey of basic reproductive ratios in vector-borne disease transmission modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soewono, E.; Aldila, D.

    2015-03-01

    Vector-borne diseases are commonly known in tropical and subtropical countries. These diseases have contributed to more than 10% of world infectious disease cases. Among the vectors responsible for transmitting the diseases are mosquitoes, ticks, fleas, flies, bugs and worms. Several of the diseases are known to contribute to the increasing threat to human health such as malaria, dengue, filariasis, chikungunya, west nile fever, yellow fever, encephalistis, and anthrax. It is necessary to understand the real process of infection, factors which contribute to the complication of the transmission in order to come up with a good and sound mathematical model. Although it is not easy to simulate the real transmission process of the infection, we could say that almost all models have been developed from the already long known Host-Vector model. It constitutes the main transmission processes i.e. birth, death, infection and recovery. From this simple model, the basic concepts of Disease Free and Endemic Equilibria and Basic Reproductive Ratio can be well explained and understood. Theoretical, modeling, control and treatment aspects of disease transmission problems have then been developed for various related diseases. General construction as well as specific forms of basic reproductive ratios for vector-borne diseases are discusses here.

  15. Possibilities of microscopic detection of isolated porcine proteins in model meat products

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michaela Petrášová

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available In recent years, various protein additives intended for manufacture of meat products have increasing importance in the food industry. These ingredients include both, plant-origin as well as animal-origin proteins. Among animal proteins, blood plasma, milk protein or collagen are used most commonly. Collagen is obtained from pork, beef, and poultry or fish skin. Collagen does not contain all the essential amino acids, thus it is not a full protein in terms of essential amino acids supply for one's organism. However, it is rather rich in amino acids of glycine, hydroxyproline and proline which are almost absent in other proteins and their synthesis is very energy intensive. Collagen, which is added to the soft and small meat products in the form of isolated porcine protein, significantly affects the organoleptic properties of these products. This work focused on detection of isolated porcine protein in model meat products where detection of isolated porcine protein was verified by histological staining and light microscopy. Seven model meat products from poultry meat and 7 model meat products from beef and pork in the ratio of 1:1, which contained 2.5% concentration of various commercially produced isolated porcine proteins, were examined. These model meat products were histologically processed by means of cryosections and stained with hematoxylin-eosin staining, toluidine blue staining and Calleja. For the validation phase, Calleja was utilized. To determine the sensitivity and specificity, five model meat products containing the addition of isolated porcine protein and five model meat products free of it were used. The sensitivity was determined for isolated porcine protein at 1.00 and specificity was determined at 1.00. The detection limit of the method was at the level of 0.001% addition. Repeatability of the method was carried out using products with addition as well as without addition of isolated porcine protein and detection was repeated

  16. Multiple Indicator Stationary Time Series Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sivo, Stephen A.

    2001-01-01

    Discusses the propriety and practical advantages of specifying multivariate time series models in the context of structural equation modeling for time series and longitudinal panel data. For time series data, the multiple indicator model specification improves on classical time series analysis. For panel data, the multiple indicator model…

  17. Sensitivity analysis of machine-learning models of hydrologic time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Reilly, A. M.

    2017-12-01

    Sensitivity analysis traditionally has been applied to assessing model response to perturbations in model parameters, where the parameters are those model input variables adjusted during calibration. Unlike physics-based models where parameters represent real phenomena, the equivalent of parameters for machine-learning models are simply mathematical "knobs" that are automatically adjusted during training/testing/verification procedures. Thus the challenge of extracting knowledge of hydrologic system functionality from machine-learning models lies in their very nature, leading to the label "black box." Sensitivity analysis of the forcing-response behavior of machine-learning models, however, can provide understanding of how the physical phenomena represented by model inputs affect the physical phenomena represented by model outputs.As part of a previous study, hybrid spectral-decomposition artificial neural network (ANN) models were developed to simulate the observed behavior of hydrologic response contained in multidecadal datasets of lake water level, groundwater level, and spring flow. Model inputs used moving window averages (MWA) to represent various frequencies and frequency-band components of time series of rainfall and groundwater use. Using these forcing time series, the MWA-ANN models were trained to predict time series of lake water level, groundwater level, and spring flow at 51 sites in central Florida, USA. A time series of sensitivities for each MWA-ANN model was produced by perturbing forcing time-series and computing the change in response time-series per unit change in perturbation. Variations in forcing-response sensitivities are evident between types (lake, groundwater level, or spring), spatially (among sites of the same type), and temporally. Two generally common characteristics among sites are more uniform sensitivities to rainfall over time and notable increases in sensitivities to groundwater usage during significant drought periods.

  18. The CO2 emissions-income nexus: Evidence from rich countries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jaunky, Vishal Chandr

    2011-01-01

    The paper attempts to test the Environment Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis for 36 high-income countries for the period 1980-2005. The test is based on the suggestion of . Various panel data unit root and co-integration tests are applied. Carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions and GDP series are integrated of order one and co-integrated, especially after controlling for cross-sectional dependence. Additionally, the Blundell-Bond system generalised methods of moments (GMM) is employed to conduct a panel causality test in a vector error-correction mechanism (VECM) setting. Unidirectional causality running from real per capita GDP to per capita CO 2 emissions is uncovered in both the short-run and the long-run. The empirical analysis based on individual countries provides evidence of an EKC for Greece, Malta, Oman, Portugal and the United Kingdom. However, it can be observed that for the whole panel, a 1% increase in GDP generates an increase of 0.68% in CO 2 emissions in the short-run and 0.22% in the long-run. The lower long-run income elasticity does not provide evidence of an EKC, but does indicate that, over time, CO 2 emissions are stabilising in the rich countries. - Research highlights: → The Environment Kuznets Curve hypothesis for 36 rich countries is studied over the period 1980-2005. → approach is used and extended by including a causality analysis. → Carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions are found to be stabilizing in the rich countries.

  19. ANALISIS FAKTOR-FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHI KONSUMSI DI INDONESIA MENGGUNAKAN ERROR CORRECTION MODEL (ECM PERIODE TAHUN 1994.1–2005.4

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Firdayetti SE, MSi

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the implementation of this research was to know whether the national income, the interest rate of the fixed deposit, and the interest rate of credit had the influence that was significant or not towards consumption in Indonesia, and whether being gotten by long-term and short relations towards consumption. The methodology that was utilised in this research was the Error Correction Model method (ECM that from the OLS method, with before carried out steps as follows, that is the test, the integration test and the test of the co-integration approach of the unit root. And the data that was used in this research was the secondary data in a kwartalan manner in the period 1994:1 up to 2005:4. Was based on results of the research that was carried out, then could be concluded that results of the test of the unit root, showed all variable was not yet stationary and just was stationary in the level test of the integration. While results of the co-integration test showed the stationary consumption model so as to be able to be carried out by the test of ECM. And the results of the Error Correction Model test (ECM showed that in the long term the national income variable had the influence that was significant towards consumption. The interest rate of the Fixed Deposit in the long term and short-term did not have the influence on consumption. The interest rate of Credit in the long term and short-term also did not have the influence that was significant towards consumption. Keywords :Real Consumption, Real GDP, Deposit Interest Rate, Credit Interest

  20. 7-Ketocholesterol and 7-hydroxycholesterol in pork meat and its gravy thermally treated without additives and in the presence of onion and garlic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janoszka, Beata

    2010-12-01

    The effect of onion and garlic on the formation of two cholesterol oxidation products (COPs): 7-ketocholesterol and 7-hydroxycholesterol was evaluated by comparing their concentrations in meat and gravy samples obtained from three pork dishes prepared in the presence and absence of these flavourings. The concentration of these compounds in meat samples was between 82.4 and 1331.6 ng/g of cooked meat. Gravies contained lower amounts: from 18.3 to 45.6 ng/g of cooked meat. The addition of onion (30 g/100g of meat) caused a decrease in 7-ketocholesterol and 7-hydroxycholesterol concentrations in all of the investigated pork dishes by 9.5-79%, whilst the addition of 15 g of garlic to 100g of meat lowered the concentration by 17 to 88%. The greatest decrease was found in grilled minced chops. The quantitative assessment of 7-ketocholesterol and 7-hydroxycholesterol was carried out by thin-layer chromatography with densitometric detection. Copyright © 2010 The American Meat Science Association. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  1. A study on the composition of off-odor volatiles in irradiated pork

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lin Ruotai; Geng Shengrong; Zhang Jinmu; Chen Yuxia; Liu Yangmin; Wang Liping; Wang Hong; Xu Ying; Yao Side

    2006-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to lay a foundation on generation mechanisms and removal method of off-odor of irradiated meat products. Vacuum-package and refrigerated raw pork samples were irradiated with 60 Co γ-rays. Off-odor volatiles from the irradiated pork samples were taken in by a vacuum system and were collected by a cooled vial in liquid nitrogen. At the same time, the source of off-odor generation was investigated. Main compositions of off-odor volatiles of the irradiated pork were analyzed with gas chromatograph mass spectrometry (GC-MS). The results showed that main compositions of the off-odor volatiles were dimethyl disulfide, dimethyl sulfide, dimethyl trisulfide, methanethiol and S-methyl thioacetate, and the off-odor volatiles came from sulfide-containing amino acid and thiamin of the irradiated pork. Sulfide-containing compounds increased with the dose in the range of 0-3 kGy, and decreased with the refrigeration time, but changed from different kinds of the package. The non-irradiated samples, however, contained just a little sulfide-containing compounds of dimethyl sulfide and vangardbt. (authors)

  2. The employment of FTIR spectroscopy in combination with chemometrics for analysis of rat meat in meatball formulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahmania, Halida; Sudjadi; Rohman, Abdul

    2015-02-01

    For Indonesian community, meatball is one of the favorite meat food products. In order to gain economical benefits, the substitution of beef meat with rat meat can happen due to the different prices between rat meat and beef. In this present research, the feasibility of FTIR spectroscopy in combination with multivariate calibration of partial least square (PLS) was used for the quantitative analysis of rat meat in the binary mixture of beef in meatball formulation. Meanwhile, the chemometrics of principal component analysis (PCA) was used for the classification between rat meat and beef meatballs. Some frequency regions in mid infrared region were optimized, and finally, the frequency region of 750-1000 cm(-1) was selected during PLS and PCA modeling.For quantitative analysis, the relationship between actual values (x-axis) and FTIR predicted values (y-axis) of rat meat is described by the equation of y= 0.9417x+ 2.8410 with coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.993, and root mean square error of calibration (RMSEC) of 1.79%. Furthermore, PCA was successfully used for the classification of rat meat meatball and beef meatball.

  3. 9 CFR 319.106 - “Country Ham,” “Country Style Ham,” “Dry Cured Ham,” “Country Pork Shoulder,” “Country Style Pork...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... INSPECTION AND CERTIFICATION DEFINITIONS AND STANDARDS OF IDENTITY OR COMPOSITION Cured Meats, Unsmoked and..., or from a single piece of meat from a pork shoulder. They are prepared in accordance with paragraph...Dry Cured Ham,â âCountry Pork Shoulder,â âCountry Style Pork Shoulder,â and âDry Cured Pork Shoulder.â...

  4. Long-run Determinants of Technological Progress in Nigeria ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This study utilized time series data sets on TFP constructed based on purchasing power parity covering from 1960-2010 to estimate long run determinants of technological progress in Nigeria using Vector Error Correction Mode(VECM)l. The co-integration result shows evidence of two cointegrating equations while the Fully ...

  5. Relating interesting quantitative time series patterns with text events and text features

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wanner, Franz; Schreck, Tobias; Jentner, Wolfgang; Sharalieva, Lyubka; Keim, Daniel A.

    2013-12-01

    In many application areas, the key to successful data analysis is the integrated analysis of heterogeneous data. One example is the financial domain, where time-dependent and highly frequent quantitative data (e.g., trading volume and price information) and textual data (e.g., economic and political news reports) need to be considered jointly. Data analysis tools need to support an integrated analysis, which allows studying the relationships between textual news documents and quantitative properties of the stock market price series. In this paper, we describe a workflow and tool that allows a flexible formation of hypotheses about text features and their combinations, which reflect quantitative phenomena observed in stock data. To support such an analysis, we combine the analysis steps of frequent quantitative and text-oriented data using an existing a-priori method. First, based on heuristics we extract interesting intervals and patterns in large time series data. The visual analysis supports the analyst in exploring parameter combinations and their results. The identified time series patterns are then input for the second analysis step, in which all identified intervals of interest are analyzed for frequent patterns co-occurring with financial news. An a-priori method supports the discovery of such sequential temporal patterns. Then, various text features like the degree of sentence nesting, noun phrase complexity, the vocabulary richness, etc. are extracted from the news to obtain meta patterns. Meta patterns are defined by a specific combination of text features which significantly differ from the text features of the remaining news data. Our approach combines a portfolio of visualization and analysis techniques, including time-, cluster- and sequence visualization and analysis functionality. We provide two case studies, showing the effectiveness of our combined quantitative and textual analysis work flow. The workflow can also be generalized to other

  6. Error Analysis for Fourier Methods for Option Pricing

    KAUST Repository

    Hä ppö lä , Juho

    2016-01-01

    We provide a bound for the error committed when using a Fourier method to price European options when the underlying follows an exponential Levy dynamic. The price of the option is described by a partial integro-differential equation (PIDE

  7. Correct mutual information, quantum bit error rate and secure transmission efficiency in Wojcik's eavesdropping scheme on ping-pong protocol

    OpenAIRE

    Zhang, Zhanjun

    2004-01-01

    Comment: The wrong mutual information, quantum bit error rate and secure transmission efficiency in Wojcik's eavesdropping scheme [PRL90(03)157901]on ping-pong protocol have been pointed out and corrected

  8. Recurrent Neural Network Applications for Astronomical Time Series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Protopapas, Pavlos

    2017-06-01

    The benefits of good predictive models in astronomy lie in early event prediction systems and effective resource allocation. Current time series methods applicable to regular time series have not evolved to generalize for irregular time series. In this talk, I will describe two Recurrent Neural Network methods, Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and Echo State Networks (ESNs) for predicting irregular time series. Feature engineering along with a non-linear modeling proved to be an effective predictor. For noisy time series, the prediction is improved by training the network on error realizations using the error estimates from astronomical light curves. In addition to this, we propose a new neural network architecture to remove correlation from the residuals in order to improve prediction and compensate for the noisy data. Finally, I show how to set hyperparameters for a stable and performant solution correctly. In this work, we circumvent this obstacle by optimizing ESN hyperparameters using Bayesian optimization with Gaussian Process priors. This automates the tuning procedure, enabling users to employ the power of RNN without needing an in-depth understanding of the tuning procedure.

  9. Time series analysis of the developed financial markets' integration using visibility graphs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhuang, Enyu; Small, Michael; Feng, Gang

    2014-09-01

    A time series representing the developed financial markets' segmentation from 1973 to 2012 is studied. The time series reveals an obvious market integration trend. To further uncover the features of this time series, we divide it into seven windows and generate seven visibility graphs. The measuring capabilities of the visibility graphs provide means to quantitatively analyze the original time series. It is found that the important historical incidents that influenced market integration coincide with variations in the measured graphical node degree. Through the measure of neighborhood span, the frequencies of the historical incidents are disclosed. Moreover, it is also found that large "cycles" and significant noise in the time series are linked to large and small communities in the generated visibility graphs. For large cycles, how historical incidents significantly affected market integration is distinguished by density and compactness of the corresponding communities.

  10. Modelling world gold prices and USD foreign exchange relationship using multivariate GARCH model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ping, Pung Yean; Ahmad, Maizah Hura Binti

    2014-12-01

    World gold price is a popular investment commodity. The series have often been modeled using univariate models. The objective of this paper is to show that there is a co-movement between gold price and USD foreign exchange rate. Using the effect of the USD foreign exchange rate on the gold price, a model that can be used to forecast future gold prices is developed. For this purpose, the current paper proposes a multivariate GARCH (Bivariate GARCH) model. Using daily prices of both series from 01.01.2000 to 05.05.2014, a causal relation between the two series understudied are found and a bivariate GARCH model is produced.

  11. CO2 Allowance and Electricity Price Interaction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2007-07-01

    With the introduction of CO2 emission constraints on power generators in the European Union, climate policy is starting to have notable effects on energy markets. This paper sheds light on the links between CO2 prices, electricity prices, and electricity costs to industry. It is based on a series of interviews with industrial and electricity stakeholders, as well as a rich literature seeking to estimate the exact effect of CO2 prices on electricity prices.

  12. Identification of irradiated refrigerated pork with the DNA comet assay

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Araujo, M.M. E-mail: villavic@net.ipen.br; Marin-Huachaca, N.S.; Mancini-Filho, J. E-mail: jmancini@usp.br; Delincee, H.; Villavicencio, A.L.C.H. E-mail: henry.delincee@bfe.uni-karlsruhe.de

    2004-10-01

    Food irradiation can contribute to a safer and more plentiful food supply by inactivating pathogens, eradicating pests and by extending shelf-life. Particularly in the case of pork meat, this process could be a useful way to inactivate harmful parasites such as Trichinella and Taenia solium. Ionizing radiation causes damage to the DNA of the cells (e.g. strand breaks), which can be used to detect irradiated food. Microelectrophoresis of single cells ('Comet Assay') is a simple and rapid test for DNA damage and can be used over a wide dose range and for a variety of products. Refrigerated pork meat was irradiated with a {sup 60}Co source, Gammacell 220 (A.E.C.L.) installed in IPEN (Sao Paulo, Brazil). The doses given were 0, 1.5, 3.0 and 4.5 kGy for refrigerated samples. Immediately after irradiation the samples were returned to the refrigerator (6 deg. C). Samples were kept in the refrigerator after irradiation. Pork meat was analyzed 1, 8 and 10 days after irradiation using the DNA 'Comet Assay'. This method showed to be an inexpensive and rapid technique for qualitative detection of irradiation treatment.

  13. Identification of irradiated refrigerated pork with the DNA comet assay

    Science.gov (United States)

    Araújo, M. M.; Marin-Huachaca, N. S.; Mancini-Filho, J.; Delincée, H.; Villavicencio, A. L. C. H.

    2004-09-01

    Food irradiation can contribute to a safer and more plentiful food supply by inactivating pathogens, eradicating pests and by extending shelf-life. Particularly in the case of pork meat, this process could be a useful way to inactivate harmful parasites such as Trichinella and Taenia solium. Ionizing radiation causes damage to the DNA of the cells (e.g. strand breaks), which can be used to detect irradiated food. Microelectrophoresis of single cells (``Comet Assay'') is a simple and rapid test for DNA damage and can be used over a wide dose range and for a variety of products. Refrigerated pork meat was irradiated with a 60Co source, Gammacell 220 (A.E.C.L.) installed in IPEN (Sa~o Paulo, Brazil). The doses given were 0, 1.5, 3.0 and 4.5kGy for refrigerated samples. Immediately after irradiation the samples were returned to the refrigerator (6°C). Samples were kept in the refrigerator after irradiation. Pork meat was analyzed 1, 8 and 10 days after irradiation using the DNA ``Comet Assay''. This method showed to be an inexpensive and rapid technique for qualitative detection of irradiation treatment.

  14. Aumento da vida útil e microbiologia da carne suína embalada em atmosfera modificada Shelf life extension and microbiology of pork meat packaged in modified atmosphere

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sérgio Borges Mano

    2002-01-01

    with either 1.0 L of air (100%, nitrogen (100%, 20/80 or 40/60 CO2/O2 and finally sealed. Samples were subdivided into two batches and stored in walk-in cold rooms at 1 and 7ºC. Samples were taken at different days of storage and pH and gas concentration (CO2/O2/N2 were determined. Likewise, total viable, lactic acid bacteria, Enterobacteriaceae, Brochothrix thermosphacta and Pseudomonas were counted. Bacterial growth parameters were assessed using Gompertz equations. As expected, modified atmosphere packaging extended the pork meat shelf life. However, modified atmospheres enriched with CO2 and at 1ºC showed a greater effectiveness. The samples conserved in MAP enriched in CO2, as much to 7 as to 1ºC, maintained the constant pH during the period of storage. At 1 and 7ºC the lag phases and the duplication times of the total microbiota were progressively larger in the following order: air (100%, N2 (100%, 20/80 and 40/60 CO2/O2. In accordance with the results, it can be concluded that, by as much to 1 as to 7ºC, the use of the modified atmospheres slowed the growth of the spoilage bacteria of pork meat, favoring the extension of the useful life, mainly in the MAP enriched with CO2.

  15. Bootstrap Score Tests for Fractional Integration in Heteroskedastic ARFIMA Models, with an Application to Price Dynamics in Commodity Spot and Futures Markets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cavaliere, Giuseppe; Nielsen, Morten Ørregaard; Taylor, A.M. Robert

    Empirical evidence from time series methods which assume the usual I(0)/I(1) paradigm suggests that the efficient market hypothesis, stating that spot and futures prices of a commodity should cointegrate with a unit slope on futures prices, does not hold. However, these statistical methods...... fractionally integrated model we are able to find a body of evidence in support of the efficient market hypothesis for a number of commodities. Our new tests are wild bootstrap implementations of score-based tests for the order of integration of a fractionally integrated time series. These tests are designed...... principle do. A Monte Carlo simulation study demonstrates that very significant improvements infinite sample behaviour can be obtained by the bootstrap vis-à-vis the corresponding asymptotic tests in both heteroskedastic and homoskedastic environments....

  16. Time-series-analysis techniques applied to nuclear-material accounting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pike, D.H.; Morrison, G.W.; Downing, D.J.

    1982-05-01

    This document is designed to introduce the reader to the applications of Time Series Analysis techniques to Nuclear Material Accountability data. Time series analysis techniques are designed to extract information from a collection of random variables ordered by time by seeking to identify any trends, patterns, or other structure in the series. Since nuclear material accountability data is a time series, one can extract more information using time series analysis techniques than by using other statistical techniques. Specifically, the objective of this document is to examine the applicability of time series analysis techniques to enhance loss detection of special nuclear materials. An introductory section examines the current industry approach which utilizes inventory differences. The error structure of inventory differences is presented. Time series analysis techniques discussed include the Shewhart Control Chart, the Cumulative Summation of Inventory Differences Statistics (CUSUM) and the Kalman Filter and Linear Smoother

  17. Error analysis of motion correction method for laser scanning of moving objects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goel, S.; Lohani, B.

    2014-05-01

    The limitation of conventional laser scanning methods is that the objects being scanned should be static. The need of scanning moving objects has resulted in the development of new methods capable of generating correct 3D geometry of moving objects. Limited literature is available showing development of very few methods capable of catering to the problem of object motion during scanning. All the existing methods utilize their own models or sensors. Any studies on error modelling or analysis of any of the motion correction methods are found to be lacking in literature. In this paper, we develop the error budget and present the analysis of one such `motion correction' method. This method assumes availability of position and orientation information of the moving object which in general can be obtained by installing a POS system on board or by use of some tracking devices. It then uses this information along with laser scanner data to apply correction to laser data, thus resulting in correct geometry despite the object being mobile during scanning. The major application of this method lie in the shipping industry to scan ships either moving or parked in the sea and to scan other objects like hot air balloons or aerostats. It is to be noted that the other methods of "motion correction" explained in literature can not be applied to scan the objects mentioned here making the chosen method quite unique. This paper presents some interesting insights in to the functioning of "motion correction" method as well as a detailed account of the behavior and variation of the error due to different sensor components alone and in combination with each other. The analysis can be used to obtain insights in to optimal utilization of available components for achieving the best results.

  18. Dynamics of Timber Market Integration in Sweden

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vishal Chandr Jaunky

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper addresses the performance of the timber markets (Scots pine, Pinus silvestris L. and Norway spruce, Picea abies (L. Karst. by evaluating the order of market integration in three Swedish regions (Central, Northern, and Southern. Quarterly data of delivery prices are employed over the period 1999Q1–2012Q4. Various unit root and cointegration tests have been computed. The results indicate that the variables are integrated of first order and co-integrated, especially after controlling for structural breaks. This supports the law-of-one-price hypothesis (LOP. However, the effects of structural shocks on forestry are arguably significant and these are controlled for while performing a vector error-correction mechanism (VECM-based Granger-causality test. Bi-directional causality between the Northern and central markets is uncovered in the short-run. In the long-run, a similar causal effect is detected between Northern and Southern markets while the central market emerges as the price leader. Further investigation is carried out using variance decompositions and impulse response functions and these approaches also tend to confirm the existence of a single market well, as price interdependence between markets.

  19. Housing price forecastability: A factor analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Stig Vinther; Bork, Lasse

    2017-01-01

    We examine U.S. housing price forecastability using principal component analysis (PCA), partial least squares (PLS), and sparse PLS (SPLS). We incorporate information from a large panel of 128 economic time series and show that macroeconomic fundamentals have strong predictive power for future...... movements in housing prices. We find that (S)PLS models systematically dominate PCA models. (S)PLS models also generate significant out-of-sample predictive power over and above the predictive power contained by the price-rent ratio, autoregressive benchmarks, and regression models based on small datasets....

  20. Currency risk and prices of oil and petroleum products: a simulation with a quantitative model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aniasi, L.; Ottavi, D.; Rubino, E.; Saracino, A.

    1992-01-01

    This paper analyzes the relationship between the exchange rates of the US Dollar against the four major European currencies and the prices of oil and its main products in those countries. In fact, the sensitivity of the prices to the exchange rate movements is of fundamental importance for the refining and distribution industries of importing countries. The result of the analysis shows that in neither free market conditions, as those present in Great Britain, France and Germany, nor in regulated markets, i.e. the italian one, do the variations of petroleum product prices fully absorb the variation of the exchange rates. In order to assess the above relationship, we first tested the order of co-integration of the time series of exchange rates of EMS currencies with those of international prices of oil and its derivative products; then we used a transfer-function model to reproduce the quantitative relationships between those variables. Using these results, we then reproduced domestic price functions with partial adjustment mechanisms. Finally, we used the above model to run a simulation of the deviation from the steady-state pattern caused by exchange-rate exogenous shocks. 21 refs., 5 figs., 3 tabs

  1. Electricity price modeling with stochastic time change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Borovkova, Svetlana; Schmeck, Maren Diane

    2017-01-01

    In this paper, we develop a novel approach to electricity price modeling, based on the powerful technique of stochastic time change. This technique allows us to incorporate the characteristic features of electricity prices (such as seasonal volatility, time varying mean reversion and seasonally occurring price spikes) into the model in an elegant and economically justifiable way. The stochastic time change introduces stochastic as well as deterministic (e.g., seasonal) features in the price process' volatility and in the jump component. We specify the base process as a mean reverting jump diffusion and the time change as an absolutely continuous stochastic process with seasonal component. The activity rate of the stochastic time change can be related to the factors that influence supply and demand. Here we use the temperature as a proxy for the demand and hence, as the driving factor of the stochastic time change, and show that this choice leads to realistic price paths. We derive properties of the resulting price process and develop the model calibration procedure. We calibrate the model to the historical EEX power prices and apply it to generating realistic price paths by Monte Carlo simulations. We show that the simulated price process matches the distributional characteristics of the observed electricity prices in periods of both high and low demand. - Highlights: • We develop a novel approach to electricity price modeling, based on the powerful technique of stochastic time change. • We incorporate the characteristic features of electricity prices, such as seasonal volatility and spikes into the model. • We use the temperature as a proxy for the demand and hence, as the driving factor of the stochastic time change • We derive properties of the resulting price process and develop the model calibration procedure. • We calibrate the model to the historical EEX power prices and apply it to generating realistic price paths.

  2. Intégration spatiale des marchés ruraux et urbains de la banane à cuire dans le Sud-Est de la Province du Sud du Rwanda

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Niyitanga, F.

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Integration of Rural and Urban Cooking Banana Markets in the South-East of Rwanda Southern Province. This study consists of the analysis of spatial integration of rural and urban markets of cooking banana iin the South-East of Southern province of Rwanda. It uses time series of 2001-2006 period resulting from a survey on agricultural products commercialization in rural and urban markets. The analysis used the methods of co-integration and error correction model (ECM. The results of the study show that there is, in general, weak price transmission between rural and urban markets of cooking banana. Hence rural and urban markets of cooking banana are weakly integrated. The weak integration of markets means that there exist unexploited opportunities of arbitration that would have led to the creation of "geographical monopolies" because, on each rural market, there are traders who collect the cooking banana to sell it only on the same market. This weak spatial integration of rural and urban markets can result from poor commercial infrastructures (roads and communication infrastructures and the lack of information on market (supply, demand and price. It would be necessary to develop and improve the commercial infrastructures for improving the spatial integration of cooking banana rural and urban markets in the South-East of the Southern province of Rwanda. Market integration can in turn lead to the specialization of producers of cooking banana and to the increase of cooking banana production.

  3. The Character of Price Transmission Within Milk Commodity Chain in the Czech Republic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Barbora Dudová

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The article is focused on price transmission within milk commodity chain in the Czech Republic. The article distinct on milk products with low value added – cow milk/paper box milk and products with higher value added – cow milk/butter. Price transmission is measured by the coefficient of elasticity of the price transmission (EPT; price transfer is examined in demand as well as supply direction. Next part of the analysis measures price differences (by coefficient determination – R2 in supply direction. Last step in this analysis is the impact of time delay at the price transmission process (measured by R2. The price transmission is asymmetric in the supply direction on both parts of commodity chain (EPT = 0.29 and 0.62, in the demand direction is more symmetric (EPT = 0.31 and 1.02. The assumption of better transfer of positive price changes was confirmed. At the commodity chain of milk/dairy products the time delay is not so much important. With both tested commodity chains there was found higher power of downstream markets, proving demand driven behaviour of these commodity chains, and there was detected oligopsony market structure as well. The data represent monthly prices on both chosen vertical levels in the period of 1/2000–8/2013.

  4. A simulation study to quantify the impacts of exposure measurement error on air pollution health risk estimates in copollutant time-series models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    BackgroundExposure measurement error in copollutant epidemiologic models has the potential to introduce bias in relative risk (RR) estimates. A simulation study was conducted using empirical data to quantify the impact of correlated measurement errors in time-series analyses of a...

  5. Modelling weather effects for impact analysis of residential time-of-use electricity pricing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miller, Reid; Golab, Lukasz; Rosenberg, Catherine

    2017-01-01

    Analyzing the impact of pricing policies such as time-of-use (TOU) is challenging in the presence of confounding factors such as weather. Motivated by a lack of consensus and model selection details in prior work, we present a methodology for modelling the effect of weather on residential electricity demand. The best model is selected according to explanatory power, out-of-sample prediction accuracy, goodness of fit and interpretability. We then evaluate the effect of mandatory TOU pricing in a local distribution company in southwestern Ontario, Canada. We use a smart meter dataset of over 20,000 households which is particularly suited to our analysis: it contains data from the summer before and after the implementation of TOU pricing in November 2011, and all customers transitioned from tiered rates to TOU rates at the same time. We find that during the summer rate season, TOU pricing results in electricity conservation across all price periods. The average demand change during on-peak and mid-peak periods is −2.6% and −2.4% respectively. Changes during off-peak periods are not statistically significant. These TOU pricing effects are less pronounced compared to previous studies, underscoring the need for clear, reproducible impact analyses which include full details about the model selection process. - Highlights: • We study models for the effect of weather on residential electricity demand. • We evaluate the effect of mandatory TOU pricing in a local distribution company in Ontario, Canada. • We find the effect of TOU pricing to be less pronounced compared to previous studies.

  6. A correction method for systematic error in (1)H-NMR time-course data validated through stochastic cell culture simulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sokolenko, Stanislav; Aucoin, Marc G

    2015-09-04

    The growing ubiquity of metabolomic techniques has facilitated high frequency time-course data collection for an increasing number of applications. While the concentration trends of individual metabolites can be modeled with common curve fitting techniques, a more accurate representation of the data needs to consider effects that act on more than one metabolite in a given sample. To this end, we present a simple algorithm that uses nonparametric smoothing carried out on all observed metabolites at once to identify and correct systematic error from dilution effects. In addition, we develop a simulation of metabolite concentration time-course trends to supplement available data and explore algorithm performance. Although we focus on nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) analysis in the context of cell culture, a number of possible extensions are discussed. Realistic metabolic data was successfully simulated using a 4-step process. Starting with a set of metabolite concentration time-courses from a metabolomic experiment, each time-course was classified as either increasing, decreasing, concave, or approximately constant. Trend shapes were simulated from generic functions corresponding to each classification. The resulting shapes were then scaled to simulated compound concentrations. Finally, the scaled trends were perturbed using a combination of random and systematic errors. To detect systematic errors, a nonparametric fit was applied to each trend and percent deviations calculated at every timepoint. Systematic errors could be identified at time-points where the median percent deviation exceeded a threshold value, determined by the choice of smoothing model and the number of observed trends. Regardless of model, increasing the number of observations over a time-course resulted in more accurate error estimates, although the improvement was not particularly large between 10 and 20 samples per trend. The presented algorithm was able to identify systematic errors as small

  7. The Empirical Evidence on Government Bond Market Integration in East Asia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lian Liu

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available This research intends to investigate the progress made in East Asian bond market integration thus far. Price-based measures (AAD indicator and beta-convergence measure, quantity-based measures and econometric techniques (co-integration test, error correction model based Granger causality test are employed in the analysis. Even though East Asian government bond markets have become more integrated since 2001, the differentials among the markets still remain significantly high. The bond market integration process seems slow. The convergence of bond markets sped up in 2003 and after the 2008 world financial crisis, implying the important role of government policies in integrating the regional bond markets. East Asian bond market integration may need more government-directed measures.

  8. Market Structure and Price Transmission of Eggs Commodity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abdul Aziz Ahmad

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Purposes of this research are to determine some characteristics of distribution channel, market structure, and price maker transmission in purebred chicken egg commodity in Banyumas District, Central Java Province. Primary data applied on this research is from all channel distribution levels; from producers to final consumers. Meanwhile secondary data is collected from government official sources, such as BPS-Statistic of Banyumas Disrict, Banyumas Department of Industry, Trading and Cooperation, and previous researches which has been made by researcher team. Sample determining is directed by proportional random sampling methods. Some measurements are applied to this research, including to; Herfindahl Index (HI, Concentration Ratio (CF, and Minimum Efficiency Scale (MES to investigate market structure; and Asymmetric Price Transmission (APT to determine price transmission mechanism model. This research finds that (1 the distribution channel of egg commodity is spitted to different channel, the first channel: egg producer – retail traders – final consumers, and second channel: egg producers – whole seller – retail traders – final consumers; (2 market structure which is created to this farming specific commodity is perfect market; (3 price transmission mechanism analysis statistically shows that there is almost no existence of dominant power in price formation.

  9. Seven challenges for modelling indirect transmission: Vector-borne diseases, macroparasites and neglected tropical diseases

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Déirdre Hollingsworth

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Many of the challenges which face modellers of directly transmitted pathogens also arise when modelling the epidemiology of pathogens with indirect transmission – whether through environmental stages, vectors, intermediate hosts or multiple hosts. In particular, understanding the roles of different hosts, how to measure contact and infection patterns, heterogeneities in contact rates, and the dynamics close to elimination are all relevant challenges, regardless of the mode of transmission. However, there remain a number of challenges that are specific and unique to modelling vector-borne diseases and macroparasites. Moreover, many of the neglected tropical diseases which are currently targeted for control and elimination are vector-borne, macroparasitic, or both, and so this article includes challenges which will assist in accelerating the control of these high-burden diseases. Here, we discuss the challenges of indirect measures of infection in humans, whether through vectors or transmission life stages and in estimating the contribution of different host groups to transmission. We also discuss the issues of “evolution-proof” interventions against vector-borne disease.

  10. Seven challenges for modelling indirect transmission: vector-borne diseases, macroparasites and neglected tropical diseases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hollingsworth, T Déirdre; Pulliam, Juliet R C; Funk, Sebastian; Truscott, James E; Isham, Valerie; Lloyd, Alun L

    2015-03-01

    Many of the challenges which face modellers of directly transmitted pathogens also arise when modelling the epidemiology of pathogens with indirect transmission--whether through environmental stages, vectors, intermediate hosts or multiple hosts. In particular, understanding the roles of different hosts, how to measure contact and infection patterns, heterogeneities in contact rates, and the dynamics close to elimination are all relevant challenges, regardless of the mode of transmission. However, there remain a number of challenges that are specific and unique to modelling vector-borne diseases and macroparasites. Moreover, many of the neglected tropical diseases which are currently targeted for control and elimination are vector-borne, macroparasitic, or both, and so this article includes challenges which will assist in accelerating the control of these high-burden diseases. Here, we discuss the challenges of indirect measures of infection in humans, whether through vectors or transmission life stages and in estimating the contribution of different host groups to transmission. We also discuss the issues of "evolution-proof" interventions against vector-borne disease. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  11. Meat authentication: a new HPLC-MS/MS based method for the fast and sensitive detection of horse and pork in highly processed food.

    Science.gov (United States)

    von Bargen, Christoph; Brockmeyer, Jens; Humpf, Hans-Ulrich

    2014-10-01

    Fraudulent blending of food products with meat from undeclared species is a problem on a global scale, as exemplified by the European horse meat scandal in 2013. Routinely used methods such as ELISA and PCR can suffer from limited sensitivity or specificity when processed food samples are analyzed. In this study, we have developed an optimized method for the detection of horse and pork in different processed food matrices using MRM and MRM(3) detection of species-specific tryptic marker peptides. Identified marker peptides were sufficiently stable to resist thermal processing of different meat products and thus allow the sensitive and specific detection of pork or horse in processed food down to 0.24% in a beef matrix system. In addition, we were able to establish a rapid 2-min extraction protocol for the efficient protein extraction from processed food using high molar urea and thiourea buffers. Together, we present here the specific and sensitive detection of horse and pork meat in different processed food matrices using MRM-based detection of marker peptides. Notably, prefractionation of proteins using 2D-PAGE or off-gel fractionation is not necessary. The presented method is therefore easily applicable in analytical routine laboratories without dedicated proteomics background.

  12. The impact of oil price on Malaysian sector indices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ismail, Mohd Tahir; Luan, Yeap Pei; Ee, Ong Joo

    2015-12-01

    In this paper, vector error correction model (VECM) has been utilized to model the dynamic relationships between world crude oil price and the sector indices of Malaysia. The sector indices have been collected are covering the period Jan 1998 to Dec 2013. Surprisingly, our investigations show that oil price changes do not Granger-cause any of the sectors in all of Malaysia. However, sector indices of Food Producer and Utilities are found to be the cause of the changes in world crude oil prices. Furthermore, from the results of variance decomposition, very high percentage of shocks is explained by world crude oil price itself over the 12 months and small impact from other sector indices.

  13. Forecasting of particulate matter time series using wavelet analysis and wavelet-ARMA/ARIMA model in Taiyuan, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Hong; Zhang, Sheng; Wang, Ping; Qin, Yuzhe; Wang, Huifeng

    2017-07-01

    Particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter below 10 μm (PM 10 ) forecasting is difficult because of the uncertainties in describing the emission and meteorological fields. This paper proposed a wavelet-ARMA/ARIMA model to forecast the short-term series of the PM 10 concentrations. It was evaluated by experiments using a 10-year data set of daily PM 10 concentrations from 4 stations located in Taiyuan, China. The results indicated the following: (1) PM 10 concentrations of Taiyuan had a decreasing trend during 2005 to 2012 but increased in 2013. PM 10 concentrations had an obvious seasonal fluctuation related to coal-fired heating in winter and early spring. (2) Spatial differences among the four stations showed that the PM 10 concentrations in industrial and heavily trafficked areas were higher than those in residential and suburb areas. (3) Wavelet analysis revealed that the trend variation and the changes of the PM 10 concentration of Taiyuan were complicated. (4) The proposed wavelet-ARIMA model could be efficiently and successfully applied to the PM 10 forecasting field. Compared with the traditional ARMA/ARIMA methods, this wavelet-ARMA/ARIMA method could effectively reduce the forecasting error, improve the prediction accuracy, and realize multiple-time-scale prediction. Wavelet analysis can filter noisy signals and identify the variation trend and the fluctuation of the PM 10 time-series data. Wavelet decomposition and reconstruction reduce the nonstationarity of the PM 10 time-series data, and thus improve the accuracy of the prediction. This paper proposed a wavelet-ARMA/ARIMA model to forecast the PM 10 time series. Compared with the traditional ARMA/ARIMA method, this wavelet-ARMA/ARIMA method could effectively reduce the forecasting error, improve the prediction accuracy, and realize multiple-time-scale prediction. The proposed model could be efficiently and successfully applied to the PM 10 forecasting field.

  14. Antioxidant activity and prevention of pork meat lipid oxidation using traditional Mexican condiments (pasilla dry pepper, achiote, and mole sauce

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emilio Alvarez-Parrilla

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Considering the extensive use of hot peppers and spicy sauces in the Mexican cuisine, in the present paper, three widely consumed Mexican condiments (mole sauce, achiote, and pasilla hot pepper were analyzed for their total phenols, flavonoids and proanthocyanidins, antioxidant activity, and protective effect against lipid oxidation in chopped pork meat. All samples were extracted first with methanol and then with acetone, and the extracts were compared. Pasilla pepper showed the highest phenolic and flavonoid content in both solvents, followed by mole and achiote. Achiote showed the highest proanthocyanidin concentration. All samples showed high antioxidant activity, and good correlations with phenolic compounds and flavonoids, while no correlation was observed in the case of condensed tannins. Mole sauce methanolic extract showed the highest inhibition of pork meat oxidation, followed by pasilla pepper, and finally achiote paste extracts. These results suggest that these condiments are useful to prevent meat lipid oxidation during storage.

  15. Discussion About Nonlinear Time Series Prediction Using Least Squares Support Vector Machine

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xu Ruirui; Bian Guoxing; Gao Chenfeng; Chen Tianlun

    2005-01-01

    The least squares support vector machine (LS-SVM) is used to study the nonlinear time series prediction. First, the parameter γ and multi-step prediction capabilities of the LS-SVM network are discussed. Then we employ clustering method in the model to prune the number of the support values. The learning rate and the capabilities of filtering noise for LS-SVM are all greatly improved.

  16. Assessing the variability of the fatty acid profile and cholesterol content of meat sausages

    OpenAIRE

    Amaral, J.S.; Soares, S.; Mafra, I.; Oliveira, M.B.P.P.

    2014-01-01

    Eighteen different brands of meat sausages including pork, poultry and the mixture of both meats (pork and poultry) in sausages, were analysed for their nutritional composition (total fat, moisture, crude protein and ash), cholesterol content and fatty acid composition. As expected, the pork Frankfurter sausages presented a higher fat content compared to sausages that include poultry meat in their composition. A multivariate statistical analysis was applied to the data showing the existence o...

  17. PRICE GENERATING PROCESS AND VOLATILITY IN NIGERIAN AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES MARKET

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Osaihiomwan Ojogho

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available The literature on agricultural commodity price volatility in Nigeria has constantly reflected that an excessive price movement is harmful for both producers and consumers, particularly for those who are not able to cope with that new source of economic uncertainty. It has also raised an extensive debate on the main determinants behind the large agricultural commodity price swings observed in the last years without recourse for the price generating process. To narrow this gap, the study examined the price generating process and volatility in the Nigerian agricultural commodities market using secondary data for price series on meat, cereals, sugar, dairy and aggregate food for the period of January 1990 to February 2014. The data were analysed using the linear Gaussian State-Space (SS model. The results of the descriptive statistics showed that the coefficients of variation for cereals (39.88%, food (32.65% and dairy price (43.08% were respectively higher during the overall time period (January 1990 to February 2014 than during the first (January 1990 to January 2002 and second (February 2002 to February 2014 sub-time periods. The results of the inferential statistics showed that authoregressive moving average (ARMA model is the most selected Nigeria agricultural commodity price generating model for the time periods, that a unit increase in the past price state of cereals, dairy, sugar, meat and aggregate food would increase the future price of sugar, meat and aggregate food by N0.14, N0.28 and N0.15 respectively but decrease future price of cereals and dairy by about N1.00 and N0.21 respectively, and that the one-step ahead predicted value for the first out-ofsample period for cereals, meat, dairy and sugar price were 6317.86, 10.24 and 2.06 respectively. The Nigerian agricultural commodity prices have experienced high variability over the period, and such volatility, price-generating process and the determinants of the Nigerian food commodities

  18. Power transmission charges based on nodal pricing which considers restriction on power transmission; Soden setsuyaku wo koryoshita nodaru pricing ni motozuku soden ryokin

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Okada, K.; Asano, H. [Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry, Tokyo (Japan); Matsukawa, I. [Musashi University, Tokyo (Japan)

    1997-01-30

    Power transmission charges were derived by using nodal pricing, and a discussion was given on what effects are given on system conditions, nodal price and consignment charge by how coordination points of independent power producers (IPP) and power demand are handled. A test model having six nodes (busbars) and eleven branches (transmission lines) was used. Since demands of the same kind are hypothesized to be coordinated in this simulation, the total nodal price becomes an equivalent value if there is no restrictions in transmission line current. If the transmission restrictions are taken into consideration, demand amounts at each node are so adjusted that excess current in a transmission line exceeding the transmission capacity will be eliminated. Thus, the demand-supply balancing amount in the entire system becomes smaller than when restrictions are not considered. As a result of the analysis, the IPP coordination points have possibilities to cause congestion (overload current) in the system, raise nodal price at each point, and sharply raise the consignment charge. It was found that an effect may also occur to a node depending on position of demand generation. 6 refs., 3 figs., 7 tabs.

  19. Consumer profile analysis for different types of meat in Spain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Escriba-Perez, Carmen; Baviera-Puig, Amparo; Buitrago-Vera, Juan; Montero-Vicente, Luis

    2017-07-01

    It is important to analyse the consumer profile of each type of meat to better adapt the marketing mix to each one. To this end, we examined the average consumption frequency of different types of meat based on two methodologies: consumer segmentation using the food-related lifestyle (FRL) framework, giving rise to 4 segments, and analysis of socio-demographic profiles. The variables used were: sex, age, educational level, social class, number of people in the household, presence of children younger than 18 in the home, geographical area and habitual residence. Beef was the only meat type significant in both analyses. Turkey meat only appeared as significant in the FRL analysis. The other meats (chicken, pork, rabbit and lamb) were only significant in the sociodemographic variables analysis. From the outcomes we may conclude that there is no single consumer profile, which rather depends on the type of meat. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Is the price effect on fuel consumption symmetric? Some evidence from an empirical study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sentenac-Chemin, Elodie

    2012-01-01

    We generally consider that the price elasticity of the energy demand is quite small. But it appears that strong increases in gasoline price lead to modifications in consumer behaviors. The high volatility of petroleum prices and the strong increases since the beginning of 2000 justify an analysis of price effects on gasoline consumption. We estimate the effects of price variations on gasoline consumption, in the United States and India. We use a co-integration modelling to test for long-run relationship between gasoline consumption, income, price and vehicle ownership in the two countries. We use an error correction model to test for short-run prices effects and more precisely for asymmetric effects on demand of increases and decreases in gasoline prices. The main conclusions are the following. Concerning the United States, the long-term price elasticity is relatively high for an industrialised country because gasoline taxes are low, but we show that households are more sensitive to a price increase than a price decrease. About India, price elasticity in the long-run is quite high but is quite small in the short-run. It is not surprising for an emergent country. It seems that there is no asymmetric effect of price variations on gasoline consumption.