WorldWideScience

Sample records for business cycles

  1. Euro area business cycles

    OpenAIRE

    Atilim Seymen

    2012-01-01

    The role of global, euro area and country-specific shocks in business cycle dynamics of six euro area member countries is assessed with the aid of SVAR models. Output fluctuations are driven by global shocks to a large extent in the euro area, and no Europeanisation of business cycles due to, for example the European Monetary Union, could be established. Business cycle heterogeneity is driven mainly by (asymmetric) country-specific shocks in the euro area and not by heterogeneous responses to...

  2. Real business cycle realizations

    OpenAIRE

    Smith, Gregor W.; Stanley E. Zin

    1997-01-01

    Much recent business cycle research focuses on moments of macroeconomic aggregates. We construct examples of real business cycle sample paths for output, consumption, and employment for the U.S. economy. Annual sample paths are generated from an initial condition in 1925, measured technology and government spending shocks since then, and a standard, calibrated, one-sector model of the business cycle. Quarterly sample paths are generated similarly, from an initial condition in 1955. The law of...

  3. Resuscitating Real Business Cycles

    OpenAIRE

    Robert G. King; Sergio T. Rebelo

    2000-01-01

    The Real Business Cycle (RBC) research program has grown spectacularly over the last decade, as its concepts and methods have diffused into mainstream macroeconomics. Yet, there is increasing skepticism that technology shocks are a major source of business fluctuations. This chapter exposits the basic RBC model and shows that it requires large technology shocks to produce realistic business cycles. While Solow residuals are sufficiently volatile, these imply frequent technological regress. Pr...

  4. How well can business cycle accounting account for business cycles?

    OpenAIRE

    Otsu, Keisuke

    2012-01-01

    The business cycle accounting method introduced by Chari, Kehoe and McGrattan (2007) is a useful tool to decompose business cycle fluctuations into their contributing factors. However, the model estimated by the maximum likelihood method cannot replicate business cycle moments computed from data. Moment-based estimation might be an attractive alternative if the purpose of the research is to study business cycle properties such as volatility, persistence and cross-correlation of variables inst...

  5. International Business Cycle

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marek Lubiński

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available Prime stylized facts of international business cycle theory refer to positive correlation in the cyclical components of important macroeconomic variables across countries. However a number of indicators of business cycle synchronization do not point to clear trends. It can be ascribed to the fact that different forces influence level of business cycle correlation. When investigating into the forces behind the commonness in aggregate fluctuations economic research seems to have pointed in two directions. One strand of the literature examines the idea of common exogenous shocks that affect economies simultaneously. In addition to that economic interdependencies such as trade in goods and services or capital account transactions may serve as the channels through which disturbances spill over across countries.The observed degree of output co movement reflects both the nature of the shocks that have occurred and the degree of economic interdependence. In the periods when common shocks prevail level of synchronization is usually higher than in times of transmission dominance.

  6. Entrepreneurship and the business cycle

    OpenAIRE

    Thurik, Roy

    2014-01-01

    Entrepreneurship has a cyclical component, raising two questions. Is the entrepreneurship cycle related to the business cycle? And is there causality? A two-way relationship between entrepreneurship and the business cycle would be in line with the two faces of entrepreneurs: as agents of change creating upswings (opportunity entrepreneurship) and as rational actors escaping unemployment by setting up a business (necessity entrepreneurship). Nascent entrepreneurship can indeed be precyclical, ...

  7. Business Cycles Accounting for Paraguay

    OpenAIRE

    Hnatkovska, Viktoria; Koehler-Geib, Friederike

    2015-01-01

    This study investigates the role of domestic and external shocks in business cycle fluctuations in Paraguay during 1991–2012. Time-series methods and a structural model-based approach are used to conduct an integrated analysis of business cycles. First, structural vector autoregression is used to assess the role played by external factors and domestic shocks in driving fluctuations in gros...

  8. Money and Business Cycles: A Real Business Cycle Interpretation

    OpenAIRE

    Charles I. Plosser

    1990-01-01

    This paper focuses on the role of money in economic fluctuations. While money may play an important role in market economies, its role as an important impulse to business cycles remains a highly controversial hypothesis. For years economists have attempted to construct monetary theories of the business cycle with only limited empirical success. Alternatively, recent real theories of the cycle have taken the view that to a first approximation independent variations in the nominal quantity of o...

  9. No News in Business Cycles

    OpenAIRE

    Forni, Mario; Gambetti, Luca; Sala, Luca

    2011-01-01

    This paper uses a structural, large dimensional factor model to evaluate the role of 'news' shocks (shocks with a delayed effect on productivity) in generating the business cycle. We find that (i) existing small-scale VECM models are affected by 'non-fundamentalness' and therefore fail to recover the correct shock and impulse response functions; (ii) news shocks have a limited role in explaining the business cycle; (iii) their effects are in line with what predicted by standard neoclassical t...

  10. Business Cycle Theory and Econometrics

    OpenAIRE

    Allan W. Gregory; Smith, Gregor W.

    1995-01-01

    We outline in turn criticisms made by econometricians of the methods used in empirical business-cycle research and then criticisms made by business-cycle researchers of some methods used by econometricians. The aim is to clarify and in some cases correct these criticisms. Overall there is no conflict in using rigourous statistical procedures to study modern dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models. We also provide a concise bibliography of recent research on statistical methods for busin...

  11. Animal spirits and business cycles

    OpenAIRE

    Bidder, Rhys

    2015-01-01

    Animal spirits are often suggested as a cause of business cycles, but they are very difficult to define. Recent research proposes a novel explanation based on the changing level of risk over time and people’s uncertainty about how the world works. The interaction of these two can lead to significant business cycle fluctuations in response to spikes in volatility. This finding gives researchers an alternative to irrational behavior as an explanation for why swings in consumer sentiment appear ...

  12. Business Cycle Theory before Keynes

    OpenAIRE

    Claude Diebolt

    2009-01-01

    This article is concerned with the development of the theory of business cycles before Keynes. It is impossible to treat fully all the theories or to mention all those who have contributed to the literature. Our main consideration will be the development of cycle theory, with maximum emphasis upon ideas.

  13. Accounting for Spanish business cycles.

    OpenAIRE

    Jesús Rodríguez-López; Mario Solís-García

    2014-01-01

    We apply the business cycle methodology proposed by Chari, Kehoe, and McGrattan (2007) to identify the sources of Spanish business fluctuations during two outstanding cyclical episodes: the recession alongside the transition to democracy in 1977 and the great recession of 2008. We find that the labor wedge plays a key role during both recessions and that taxes and labor market institutions are likely behind the wedge movements. We conclude that any model that tries to understand the causes of...

  14. Educational Business Cycles

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tepe, Markus; Vanhuysse, Pieter

    2009-01-01

    teacher employment patterns at the state level in Germany and find strong evidence of cycling mechanisms, in the form of electioneering and honeymooning. Against a backdrop of a continuously shrinking total teachers' pool, German state-level incumbents accelerate the hiring of new teachers during election...

  15. Educational Business Cycles

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tepe, Markus; Vanhuysse, Pieter

    teacher employment patterns at the state level in Germany and find strong evidence of cycling mechanisms, in the form of electioneering and honeymooning. Against a backdrop of a continuously shrinking total teachers' pool, German state-level incumbents accelerate the hiring of new teachers during election...

  16. Business Cycles in Developing Countries

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rand, John; Tarp, Finn

    2002-01-01

    This paper demonstrates that developing countries differ considerably from their developed counterparts when focus is on the nature and characteristics of short run macroeconomic fluctuations. Cycles are generally shorter, and the stylized facts of business cycles across countries are more diverse...... than those of the rather uniform industrialized countries. Supply-side models are generally superior in explaining changes in output, but a “one-size fits all” approach in formulating policy is inappropriate. Our results also illustrate the critical importance of understanding business regularities as...

  17. Concordance in Business Cycles

    OpenAIRE

    C. John McDermott; Alasdair Scott

    2000-01-01

    We study the properties of a test that determines whether two time series comove. The test computes a simple nonparametric statistic for “concordance,” which describes the proportion of time that the cycles of two series spend in the same phase. We establish the size and power properties of this test. As an illustration, the procedures are applied to output series from selected major industrial countries. We find limited evidence of widespread concordance for these countries.

  18. Grown-up business cycles

    OpenAIRE

    Pugsley, Benjamin; Şahin, Ayşegül

    2014-01-01

    We document two striking facts about U.S. firm dynamics and interpret their significance for aggregate employment dynamics. The first observation is the steady decline in the firm entry rate over the last thirty years, and the second is the gradual shift of employment from younger to older firms over the same period. Both observations hold across industries and geographies. We show that, despite these trends, firms' life-cycle dynamics and business-cycle properties have remained virtually unc...

  19. Business Cycle Dependent Unemployment Insurance

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Torben M.; Svarer, Michael

    The consequences of business cycle contingencies in unemployment insurance systems are considered in a search-matching model allowing for shifts between "good" and "bad" states of nature. We show that not only is there an insurance argument for such contingencies, but there may also be an incentive...

  20. THE CANADIAN POLITICAL BUSINESS CYCLE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Barbara Libby

    2000-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper will discuss the existence of a Canadian Political Business Cycle (PBC during the period 1946-1989. Logit analysis was used to determine if changes in the unemployment rate, growth of real GNE and the rate of inflation are significantly different in the period before an election than during the rest of the electoral term. It was found that the rate of growth in the unemployment rate declines and the rate of growth of real GNP increases in the four quarters before an election. The behavior of these variables reverses in the period after an election. These findings are consistent with a political business cycle. Policy variables, under a majority government, also behave in a manner associated with a PBC, with the government stimulating the economy approximately two years into its term so that good economic news will occur before it has to call an election. Minority governments tend to simulate the economy immediately after taking office.

  1. Immigration, remittances, and business cycles

    OpenAIRE

    Federico S. Mandelman; Zlate, Andrei

    2010-01-01

    We use data on border enforcement and macroeconomic indicators from the United States and Mexico to estimate a two-country business cycle model of labor migration and remittances. The model matches the cyclical dynamics of labor migration to the United States and documents how remittances to Mexico serve an insurance role to smooth consumption across the border. During expansions in the destination economy, immigration increases with the expected stream of future wage gains, but it is dampene...

  2. Sickness Absence and Business Cycles

    OpenAIRE

    Jan Erik Askildsen; Espen Bratberg; Oivind Anti Nilsen

    2000-01-01

    Absenteeism is affected by the sickness benefit system. Countries with generous compensation during sick leaves also experience high numbers of sick leave. Sick leaves may vary over the business cycle due to unemployment disciplining effects or changes in labour force composition. The latter hypothesis maintains that sickness may be pro-cyclical due to employment of `marginal' workers with poorer health when demand increases. Using individual records of labour force participants in Norway, we...

  3. Entrepreneurship and the Business Cycle

    OpenAIRE

    KOELLINGER, Philipp; Thurik, Roy

    2009-01-01

    This discussion paper resulted in a publication in 'The Review of Economics and Statistics' (2012). Volume 94, issue 4, pages 1143-1156. We study the cyclical pattern of entrepreneurial activity. Results across 22 OECD countries for the period 1972-2007 show that entrepreneurial activity is a leading indicator of the business cycle in a Granger-causality sense. This contradicts existing theoretical hypotheses which predict that entrepreneurship is pro-cyclical or not cyclical. We discuss poss...

  4. Business Cycle Synchronization in Croatia

    OpenAIRE

    Šergo Zdravko; Poropat Amorino; Gržinić Jasmina

    2012-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to analyze business cycle synchronization in the Croatian economy using various annualized growth rate variables over a period of eighteen years (1992-2010), de-trended by a Hodrick-Prescott filter, and following the Harding and Pagan methodological procedure in the determination of its turning points. Our conceptual analysis of synchronization is based on the technique of concordance indexes and correlation coefficients obtained by the HAC estimators. The main re...

  5. Business cycle dependent unemployment insurance

    OpenAIRE

    Andersen, Torben M.; Svarer, Michael

    2010-01-01

    The consequences of business cycle contingencies in unemployment insurance systems are considered in a search-matching model allowing for shifts between "good" and "bad" states of nature. We show that not only is there an insurance argument for such contingencies, but there may also be an incentive argument. Since benefits may be less distortionary in a recession than a boom, it follows that counter-cyclical benefits reduce average distortions compared to state independent benefits. We show t...

  6. Endogenous, Imperfectly Competitive Business Cycles

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Whitta-Jacobsen, Hans Jørgen

    below -½ (at stationary equilibrium). Market power on the labor markets may have the effect that imperfectly competitive cycles are in accordance with certain empirical regularities (some well known, some reported in the paper) concerning fluctuations in output and involuntary unemployment. Since......We investigate how imperfect competition affects the occurrence and the properties of endogenous, rational expectations business cycles in an overlapping generations model with constant returns to scale in production. The model has explicit product and labor markets all characterized by...... monopolistic competition. An implicit assumption of barriers to entry justifies that the number of firms is fixed even when positive profits occur. It turns out that both market power of firms on the product markets and market power of unions on the labor markets make the occurrence of cycles more likely. In...

  7. Business Cycle and TPM of TNCs

    OpenAIRE

    Junrong Liu

    2011-01-01

    This article is devoted to analyses on effects of the four phases of business cycle on transfer pricing manipulation (TPM) of transnational corporations (TNCs) and TNCs’ possible TMP practices through business cycle. The researcher herein holds that business cycle arouses the fluctuation of economical indicators and policy changes, which subsequently affect TNCs’ production, financial situation, sales and their resource allocation globally. Acting as a reasoning business being, TNCs should ta...

  8. Business cycle synchronization in Europe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bergman, Ulf Michael; Jonung, Lars

    2011-01-01

    In this paper we study business cycle synchronization in the three Scandinavian countries Denmark, Norway and Sweden prior to, during and after the Scandinavian Currency Union 1873–1913. We find that the degree of synchronization tended to increase during the currency union, thus supporting earlier...... empirical evidence. Estimates of factor models suggest that common Scandinavian shocks are important for these three countries. At the same time we find evidence suggesting that the importance of these shocks does not depend on the monetary regime....

  9. Seasonality and equilibrium business cycle theories

    OpenAIRE

    R. Anton Braun; Evans, Charles L.

    1991-01-01

    Barksy-Miron [1989] find that the postwar U.S. economy exhibits a regular seasonal cycle, as well as the business cycle phenomenon. Are these findings consistent with current equilibrium business cycle theories as surveyed by Prescott [1986]? We consider a dynamic, stochastic equilibrium business cycle model which includes deterministic seasonals and nontime-separable preferences. We show how to compute a perfect foresight seasonal equilibrium path for this economy. An approximation to the st...

  10. Business Fixed Investment and the Recent Business Cycle in Japan

    OpenAIRE

    Nobuhiro Kiyotaki; Kenneth D. West

    1996-01-01

    To analyze business fixed investment in Japan, which has been unusually volatile in recent years, we develop and apply a loglinear flexible accelerator model. We find that movements in business fixed investment are consistent with movements in output and the tax- adjusted cost of capital, both on average during our entire 1961-94 sample and during the recent 1986-94 business cycle.

  11. Austrian economics: application on Norwegian business cycles

    OpenAIRE

    Bjerkenes, Håkon; Kiil, Håkon; Anker-Nilssen, Paal

    2010-01-01

    This paper reviews the key elements of Austrian macroeconomics and aims to find out whether the Austrian business cycle theory can explain causes to Norwegian business cycles between 1979 and 2009. The Austrian school suggests that monetary interventions disturb the term structure of interest rates. This causes the capital structure to change which accounts for fluctuations of the business cycle. Credit- induced expansions with unchanged time-preferences create unsustaina...

  12. Business cycle forecasting and regime switching

    OpenAIRE

    Thórarinn G. Pétursson

    2000-01-01

    This paper applies Hamilton's (1989) Markov-switching model of business cycle dynamics to real GDP in Iceland for the period of 1945 to 1998. The resulting model gives a reasonable description of the data generating process for real GDP and produces business cycles that correspond quite well to conventional wisdom concerning the Icelandic business cycle. Although the model cannot be distinguished from a simple, linear time series model, it offers some improvements in terms of mean absolute fo...

  13. The Frequency Analysis of the Business Cycle

    OpenAIRE

    Prof D.S.G. Pollock

    2008-01-01

    An account is given of some techniques of linear filtering that can be used for extracting the business cycle from economic data sequences of limited duration. It is argued that there can be no definitive definition of the business cycle. Both the definition of the business cycle and the methods that are used to extract it must be adapted to the purposes of the analysis; and different definitions may be appropriate to different eras.

  14. Say's Law and the Business Cycles

    OpenAIRE

    Xianming Meng

    2006-01-01

    The relationship between Say's Law and the business cycle has been vigorously debated but no generally accepted agreement has yet been reached. Although this is a disputed topic, revisiting it anew could further develop economic theory, and enhance the further growth of the global economy. By scrutinising Say¡¯s Law, and its implicit business cycle theories, this paper claims that general gluts are possible, and that the essence of the business cycle is in innovation scarcity. Thus in order t...

  15. Business cycles in oil economies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This study examines the impact of oil price shocks on output fluctuations of several oil-exporting economies. In most studies of business cycles, the role of oil price is ignored; the few studies that use oil price as one of the variables in the system focus on modeling oil-importing economies. The vector autoregression (VAR) technique is used to consider the cases of Norway, Nigeria, and Mexico. Both atheoretical and 'structural' VARs are estimated to determine the importance of oil price impulses on output variations. The study reports two types of results: variance decomposition and impulse response functions, with particular emphasis on the issues of stationarity and co-integration among the series. The empirical results suggest that shocks to oil price are important in explaining output variations. In most cases, shocks to oil price are shown to explain more than 20% of the forecast variance of output over a 40-quarter horizon

  16. Inventories in the Australian business cycle

    OpenAIRE

    Chindamo, Phillip

    2010-01-01

    This Economics Research Note examines inventories in the business cycle for Australia covering the period since the mid 1980s. The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) defines inventories as all materials etc., work in progress and finished goods owned by a business, whether held at locations of the business or elsewhere. These items are usually held by businesses in anticipation of a product’s sale. Inventory investment is counted as an additional contribution to gross domestic product (...

  17. The business cycle and the life cycle

    OpenAIRE

    Paul Gomme; Richard Rogerson; Peter Rupert; Randall Wright

    2004-01-01

    The paper documents how cyclical fluctuations in market work vary over the life cycle and then assesses the predictions of a life-cycle version of the growth model for those observations. The analysis yields a simple but striking finding. The main discrepancy between the model and that data lies in the inability of the model to account for fluctuations in hours for individuals in the first half of their life cycle. The predictions for those in the latter half of the life cycle are quite close...

  18. Finnish and Swedish Business Cycles in a Global Context

    OpenAIRE

    BERGMAN, MICHAEL

    2001-01-01

    This paper examines the characteristics of business cycles in and across Sweden and Finland during the postwar period. We find that output fluctuations in Sweden and Finland are highly correlated to two measures of the international business cycle, a European and a non--European common business cycle component. The Swedish but not the Finnish business cycle becomes more synchronized to the European business cycle over time whereas the Finnish but not the Swedish business cycle becomes more sy...

  19. Fiscal Adjustment and Business Cycle Synchronization

    OpenAIRE

    Luca Agnello; Guglielmo Maria Caporale; Ricardo M. Sousa

    2013-01-01

    Using a panel of annual data for 20 countries we show that synchronized fiscal consolidation (stimulus) programmes in different countries make their business cycles more closely linked, especially in the case of fiscal adjustments lasting 2 or 3 years. We also find: (i) little evidence of decoupling when an inflation targeting regime is unilaterally adopted; (ii) an increase in business cycle synchronization when countries fix their exchange rates and become members of a monetary union; (iii)...

  20. Fiscal adjustments and business cycle synchronization

    OpenAIRE

    Agnello, Luca; Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; Ricardo M. Sousa

    2013-01-01

    Using a panel of annual data for 20 countries we show that synchronized fiscal consolidation (stimulus) programmes in different countries make their business cycles more closely linked, especially in the case of fiscal adjustments lasting 2 or 3 years. We also find: (i) little evidence of decoupling when an inflation targeting regime is unilaterally adopted; (ii) an increase in business cycle synchronization when countries fix their exchange rates and become members of a monetary union; (iii)...

  1. Price discrimination and business-cycle risk

    OpenAIRE

    Cornia, Marco; Gerardi, Kristopher S.; Shapiro, Adam Hale

    2011-01-01

    A parsimonious theoretical model of second degree price discrimination suggests that the business cycle will affect the degree to which firms are able to price-discriminate between different consumer types. We analyze price dispersion in the airline industry to assess how price discrimination can expose airlines to aggregate-demand fluctuations. Performing a panel analysis on seventeen years of data covering two business cycles, we find that price dispersion is highly procyclical. Estimates s...

  2. Industry Dynamics, Investment and Business Cycles

    OpenAIRE

    Julieta Caunedo

    2013-01-01

    This paper investigates how features of the business cycle interact with technological restrictions at the firm level to generate dispersion in marginal products of ex ante identical firms. The model is able to deliver a non-monotonic relationship between dispersion in marginal products, aggregate productivity and the features of the business cycle. When aggregate uncertainty is low and dispersion in marginal products is low, aggregate productivity is high. But when aggregate uncertainty is h...

  3. Expectations, Learning, and Business Cycle Fluctuations

    OpenAIRE

    Stefano Eusepi; Bruce Preston

    2011-01-01

    This paper develops a theory of expectations-driven business cycles based on learning. Agents have incomplete knowledge about how market prices are determined and shifts in expectations of future prices affect dynamics. In a real business cycle model, the theoretical framework amplifies and propagates technology shocks. Improved correspondence with data arises from dynamics in beliefs being themselves persistent and because they generate strong intertemporal substitution effects in consumptio...

  4. International Business Cycle: Does Trade Matter?

    OpenAIRE

    L. Picci

    1995-01-01

    This paper addresses the question of whether trade interdependencies are significant in explaining the international synchronization of business cycles, or "international business cycles". Using an econometric framework that combines the concept of separate cointegration (Granger an Konishi, 1992) with that of common feature analysis (Engle and Kozicki, 1993; Vahid and Engle, 1993), we are able to formulate meaningful ways of characterizing the links between trade flow dynamics and internatio...

  5. On Equivalence Results in Business Cycle Accounting

    OpenAIRE

    NUTAHARA Kengo; Inaba, Masaru

    2008-01-01

    Business cycle accounting rests on the insight that the prototype neoclassical growth model with time-varying wedges can achieve the same allocation generated by a large class of frictional models: equivalence results. Equivalence results are shown under general conditions about the process of wedges while it is often specified to be the first order vector autoregressive when one applies business cycle accounting to actual data. In this paper, we characterize the class of models covered by th...

  6. Two Flaws In Business Cycle Accounting

    OpenAIRE

    Lawrence J. Christiano; Davis, Joshua M.

    2006-01-01

    Using ‘business cycle accounting’ (BCA), Chari, Kehoe and McGrattan (2006) (CKM) conclude that models of financial frictions which create a wedge in the intertemporal Euler equation are not promising avenues for modeling business cycle dynamics. There are two reasons that this conclusion is not warranted. First, small changes in the implementation of BCA overturn CKM’s conclusions. Second, one way that shocks to the intertemporal wedge impact on the economy is by their spillover effects onto ...

  7. Behavioural Theories of the Business Cycle

    OpenAIRE

    Jaimovich, Nir; Rebelo, Sérgio

    2006-01-01

    We explore the business cycle implications of expectation shocks and of two well-known psychological biases, optimism and overconfidence. The expectations of optimistic agents are biased toward good outcomes, while overconfident agents overestimate the precision of the signals that they receive. Both expectation shocks and overconfidence can increase business-cycle volatility, while preserving the model's properties in terms of comovement, and relative volatilities. In contrast, optimism is n...

  8. Behavioral Theories of the Business Cycle

    OpenAIRE

    Nir Jaimovich; Sergio Rebelo

    2006-01-01

    We explore the business cycle implications of expectation shocks and of two well-known psychological biases, optimism and overconfidence. The expectations of optimistic agents are biased toward good outcomes, while overconfident agents overestimate the precision of the signals that they receive. Both expectation shocks and overconfidence can increase business-cycle volatility, while preserving the model's properties in terms of comovement, and relative volatilities. In contrast, optimism is n...

  9. UNEMPLOYMENT AND BUSINESS CYCLES IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPEAN COUNTRIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    CIPRIAN CHIRILĂ

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available The economies of the capitalist countries are continuously facing fluctuations known as business cycles. The estimation of global business cycles as well as of business cycles of different macroeconomic variables expressing the state of the economy are of utter importance for the decision making process having as a final goal the reduction of recession periods. The unemployment rate is known as a lagging indicator for the business cycles and it can offer important information regarding the business cycles forecasting. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to analyze in a comparative manner the general business cycles and the business cycles of unemployment rate in the CEE countries. The results confirm the persistence of the business cycles under analysis and the existence of great differences by countries of the reaction of unemployment business cycles to general business cycles.

  10. An essay upon the business cycle facts: the Turkish case

    OpenAIRE

    Levent, Korap

    2006-01-01

    In our paper, we try to investigate the main determinants of the Turkish business cycles. Having examined some important issues of interest in business cycle theory, we estimate the business cycle stylized facts for the Turkish economy and compare the estimation results obtained in this paper to some benchmark papers chosen in business cycle literature. All in all, our estimation results give support to the importance of supply side models in explaining the Turkish business cycles in line wit...

  11. Consumer Confidence or the Business Cycle

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Stig V.; Nørholm, Henrik; Rangvid, Jesper

    2014-01-01

    Answer: The business cycle. We show that consumer confidence and the output gap both affect excess returns on stocks in many European countries: When the output gap is positive (the economy is doing well), expected returns are low, and when consumer confidence is high, expected returns are also l...... is better captured when using the European output gap as a risk factor.......Answer: The business cycle. We show that consumer confidence and the output gap both affect excess returns on stocks in many European countries: When the output gap is positive (the economy is doing well), expected returns are low, and when consumer confidence is high, expected returns are also low...

  12. Measuring business cycles in The Netherlands, 1815-1913: a comparison of business cycle dating methods

    OpenAIRE

    Bonenkamp, Jan; Jacobs, Jan; Kuper, Gerard H.

    2001-01-01

    This paper compares different business cycle dating methods both on theoretical and practical grounds. Weighing the pros and cons of these methods, and based on a new data set for The Netherlands in the nineteenth century, we finally recommend two preferred methods for doing further business cycle research on the economy of the Netherlands. With respect to the methods for finding turning points in the level of economic activity, the classical cycle definition, we prefer the Bry-Boschan algori...

  13. New Approaches in Business Cycle Research: The Application of Business Cycle Indicators

    OpenAIRE

    Karl Heinrich Oppenländer

    2004-01-01

    The question arises whether there can be an enrichment of business cycle research when business cycle indicators will be used in an increasing dimension. This article, dedicated to Professor Adolf Wagner, tries to differentiate three fields of research: Hypothesis formation in theory, characterisation of market imbalances and measurement of cycle and trend in empirical methods, short-term prognoses and turning point analyses in forecasting. Can we establish new hypotheses by considering expec...

  14. Attractor merging crisis in chaotic business cycles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A numerical study is performed on a forced-oscillator model of nonlinear business cycles. An attractor merging crisis due to a global bifurcation is analyzed using the unstable periodic orbits and their associated stable and unstable manifolds. Characterization of crisis can improve our ability to forecast sudden major changes in economic systems

  15. Credit Spreads Across the Business Cycle

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Mads Stenbo

    This paper studies how corporate bond spreads vary with the business cycle. I show that both level and slope of empirical credit spread curves are correlated with the state of the economy, and I link this to variation in idiosyncratic jump risk. I develop a structural credit risk model that...... firm fundamentals....

  16. Business cycle fluctuations and consumption behaviour

    OpenAIRE

    Bergh, Bram

    2013-01-01

    textabstractNew studies of business cycles and consumption tendencies reveal interesting and sometimes unexpected insights into consumption patterns. It appears that, while purchasing behaviour is obviously influenced by the overall economic environment, it is not merely a matter of more consumption in times of expansion, and less when the economy is contracting.

  17. Accounting for Japanese Business Cycles: a Quest for Labor Wedges

    OpenAIRE

    Otsu, Keisuke

    2009-01-01

    The Japanese business cycle from 1980 to 2007 portrays a less contemporaneous correlation of labor with output than in the United States, and in addition labor tends to lead output by one quarter. A canonical real business cycle model cannot account for these facts. This paper uses the business cycle accounting method following Chari, Kehoe, and McGrattan (2007) and shows that efficiency and labor market distortions are important in accounting for the quarterly business cycle fluctuation patt...

  18. Adverse selection, risk sharing and business cycles

    OpenAIRE

    Veracierto, Marcelo

    2014-01-01

    I consider a real business cycle model in which agents have private information about an idiosyncratic shock to their value of leisure. I consider the mechanism design problem for this economy and describe a computational method to solve it. This is an important contribution of the paper since the method could be used to solve a wide class of models with heterogeneous agents and aggregate uncertainty. Calibrating the model to U.S. data I find a striking result: That the information frictions ...

  19. Domestic Violence over the Business Cycle

    OpenAIRE

    Gerard van den Berg; Michele Tertilt

    2012-01-01

    In this paper we estimate the effects of the business cycle on the occurrence of domestic violence. For the victims, domestic violence is among the most traumatic events conceivable. Victims (typically, children and female spouses) are often tied to the perpetrator in a relationship of economic and emotional dependence. The current recession has hit men aged 18-65, who are the usual perpetrators, especially hard. Effects of job loss and economic hardship and deprivation on domestic violence m...

  20. Exchange Rate Regimes and International Business Cycles

    OpenAIRE

    Theptida Sopraseuth

    2003-01-01

    This paper investigates the impact of exchange rate regimes on international business cycles and focuses on the consequences of membership to the European Monetary System. The volatility puzzle uncovered by Baxter and Stockman [1989, Journal of Monetary Economics 23, 377–401] after assessing the consequences of the Bretton Woods system turns out to be a robust stylized fact: real and nominal exchange rates display a higher volatility under floating rates while the variability of macroeconom...

  1. Real Business Cycles: A New Keynesian Perspective

    OpenAIRE

    N. Gregory Mankiw

    1989-01-01

    This paper is a critique of the latest new classical theory of economic fluctuations. According to this theory, the business cycle is the natural and efficient response of the economy to exogenous changes in the available production technology. This paper discusses several versions of this theory and argues that this line of research is unlikely to yield an empirically plausible explanation of observed economic fluctuations.

  2. Policy Risk and the Business Cycle

    OpenAIRE

    Born, Benjamin; Peifer, Johannes

    2013-01-01

    The argument that policy risk, i.e. uncertainty about monetary and fiscal policy, has been holding back the economic recovery in the U.S. during the Great Recession has a large popular appeal. We analyze the role of policy risk in explaining business cycle fluctuations by using an estimated New Keynesian model featuring policy risk as well as uncertainty about technology. We directly measure uncertainty from aggregate time series using Sequential Monte Carlo Methods. While we find considerabl...

  3. The role of inventories in the business cycle

    OpenAIRE

    Aubhik Khan

    2003-01-01

    Changes in the stock of firms' inventories are an important component of the business cycle. In fact, discussion about the timing of a recovery following a recession often focuses on inventories. In "The Role of Inventories in the Business Cycle," Aubhik Khan surveys the facts about inventory investment over the business cycle, then discusses two leading theories that may explain these observations.

  4. Another Look at the Ifo Business Cycle Clock

    OpenAIRE

    Klaus Abberger

    2005-01-01

    Business tendency surveys are a popular instrument for business cycle analysis. The survey results are used to calculate leading business cycle indicators. For Germany the Ifo Institute publishes the Ifo business climate, which consists of the results of two questions: one question about the current situation of the respondents and a second question about their expectations for the coming months. The business climate combines the answers on both questions to a single indicator. This indicator...

  5. Incorporating the knowledge management cycle in e-business

    OpenAIRE

    O, Ying-Lie; Gordijn, Jaap; Akkermans, Hans

    2001-01-01

    In e-business, knowledge can be extracted from the recorded information by intelligent data analysis and then utilised in the business transaction. E-knowledge is a foundation for e-business. E-business can be supported by an intelligent information system that provides intelligent business process support and advanced support of the e-knowledge management cycle. Knowledge is stored as knowledge models that can be updated in the e-knowledge management cycle. As illustrated in examples, the e-...

  6. The Limits of Schumpeter's Business Cycles

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Esben Sloth

    2006-01-01

    Schumpeter designed Business Cycles as his major work, but it has never received much attention. The problem is partly related to its complex treatment of the theory of waveform economic evolution and the related study of the statistics and history of 150 years of capitalist evolution, but the book...... also makes a deliberate analytical delimitation: the emphasis on economic evolution and the placement of institutional change as an external factor. This definition of the task did not allow Schumpeter to make a full-blown study of the history of capitalist evolution. To some extent, he overcame that...

  7. Regional business cycle synchronization through expectations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Onozaki, Tamotsu; Yanagita, Tatsuo; Kaizoji, Taisei; Toyabe, Kazutaka

    2007-09-01

    This paper provides an example in which regional business cycles may synchronize via producers’ expectations, even though there is no interregional trade, by means of a system of globally coupled, noninvertible maps. We concentrate on the dependence of the dynamics on a parameter η which denotes the inverse of price elasticity of demand. Simulation results show that several phases (the short transient, the complete asynchronous, the long transient and the intermediate transient) appear one after another as η increases. In the long transient phase, the intermittent clustering process with a long chaotic transient appears repeatedly.

  8. Dating the Italian Business Cycle: A Comparison of Procedures

    OpenAIRE

    Bruno Giancarlo; Edoardo Otranto

    2003-01-01

    The problem of dating the business cycle has recently received many contributions, with a lot of proposed statistical methodologies, parametric and non parametric. Despite of this, only a few countries produce an official dating of the business cycle. In this work we try to apply some procedures for an automatic dating of the Italian business cycle in the last thirty years, checking differences among various methodologies and with the ISAE chronology. To this end parametric as well as non par...

  9. Heterogeneous Risk Preferences and the Welfare Cost of Business Cycles

    OpenAIRE

    Schulhofer-Wohl, Sam

    2008-01-01

    I study the welfare cost of business cycles in a complete-markets economy where some people are more risk averse than others. Relatively more risk-averse people buy insurance against aggregate risk, and relatively less risk-averse people sell insurance. These trades reduce the welfare cost of business cycles for everyone. Indeed, the least risk-averse people benefit from business cycles. Moreover, even infinitely risk-averse people suffer only finite and, in my empirical estimates, very small...

  10. Common Shocks, Common Dynamics, and the International Business Cycle.

    OpenAIRE

    Centoni, Marco; Cubadda, Gianluca; Hecq, Alain

    2007-01-01

    This paper develops an econometric framework to understand whether co-movements observed in the international business cycle are the consequences of common shocks or common transmission mechanisms. Then we propose a new statistical measure of the importance of domestic and foreign shocks over the national business cycle. We show how to decompose the business cycle effects of permanent-transitory shocks into those due to their domestic and foreign components. We apply our analys...

  11. The Brazilian business and growth cycles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcelle Chauvet

    2002-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper uses several produceres to date and analyse the Brazilian business and growth cycles. In particular, a Markov switching model is fitted to quarterly and annual real production data. The smoothed probabilities of the Markov states are used as predictive rules to define different phases of cyclical fluctuations of real Brazilian production. The results are compared with different non-parametric rules. All methods implemented yield similar dating and reveal asymmetries across the different states of the Brazilian business and growth cycles, in which slowdowns and recessions are short and abrupt, while high growth phases and expansions are longer and less steep. The resulting dating of the Brazilian economic cycles can be used as a reference point for construction and evaluation of the predictive performance of coincident, leading, or lagging indicators of economic activity. In addition, the filtered probabilities obtained from the Markov switching model allow early recognition of the transition to a new business cycle phase, wich can be used, for example, for evaluation of the adequate strength and timing of countercyclical policies, for reassessment of projected sales or profits by businesses and investors, or for monitoring of inflation pressures.Este artigo utiliza vários métodos para datar e analisar ciclos de negócios e de crescimento no Brasil. Em particular, um modelo de mudanças de Markov é aplicado a dados de produção trimestrais e anuais. As probabilidades suavizadas dos estado markovianos são utilizadas como regras de previsão para definir as diferentes fases de flutuações cíclicas na produção real brasileira. Os resultados são comparados com diferentes regras não-paramétricas. Todos os métodos implementados geram uma cronologia similar e revelam assimetrias nas diferentes fases dos ciclos de negócio e crescimento do Brasil, nos quais os estados de baixo crescimento e recessão são de curta duração e mais

  12. Austrian Business Cycle Theory: Are 100 Percent Reserves Sufficient to Prevent a Business Cycle?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Philipp Bagus

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available Authors in the Austrian tradition have made the credit expansion of a fractional reserve banking system as the prime cause of business cycles. Authors such as Selgin (1988 and White (1999 have argued that a solution to this problem would be a free banking system. They maintain that the competition between banks would limit the credit expansion effectively. Other authors such as Rothbard (1991 and Huerta de Soto (2006 have gone further and advocated a 100 percent reserve banking system ruling out credit expansion altogether. In this article it is argued that a 100 percent reserve system can still bring about business cycles through excessive maturity mismatching between deposits and loans.

  13. The integrity management cycle as a business process

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ackhurst, Trent B.; Peverelli, Romina P. [PIMS - Pipeline Integrity Management Specialists of London Ltd. (United Kingdom).

    2009-07-01

    It is a best-practice Oil and Gas pipeline integrity and reliability technique to apply integrity management cycles. This is conforms to the business principles of continuous improvement. This paper examines the integrity management cycle - both goals and objectives and subsequent component steps - from a business perspective. Traits that businesses require, to glean maximum benefit from such a cycle, are highlighted. A case study focuses upon an integrity and reliability process developed to apply to pipeline operators. installations. This is compared and contrasted to the pipeline integrity management cycle to underline both cycles. consistency with the principles of continuous improvement. (author)

  14. Business and Real Estate Cycles The Kuala Lumpur Office Market

    OpenAIRE

    Hussein, Siti Almafahaza

    2011-01-01

    Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to apply the concept of business cycle and real estate cycle in term of their characteristics, period and sequence of the cycle to the Kuala Lumpur’s office market. Design/methodology/approach - The paper is based on previous literature review, facts, reports, and data in arriving at the conclusion of the study. Findings - This paper revealed the characteristics, period and sequence between business and real estate cycles to Kuala Lumpur’s office market....

  15. Historical Business Cycles and Market Integration: Evidence from Comovement

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Uebele, Martin

    2009-01-01

    This thesis addresses historical business cycles and market integration in Europe and America in the 19th and 20th centuries. For the analysis of historical business cycles, the widely used methodology of historical national accounting is complemented with a dynamic factor model that allows for usin

  16. Business cycle development in Czech and Slovak economies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Poměnková, J.

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper focuses on the business cycle development of Czech and Slovak economies. The main objective is to compare several methodological approaches to identify business cycles with the main theoretical sources of the economic activity movements in the analyzed periods. As both economies are of transition type, the growth business cycle concept will be considered. In this respect, deterministic as well as stochastic methods for obtaining cyclical fluctuations are applied. Czech and Slovak economies fall into the group of transition economies where the problems of insufficient number of observations and structural changes in empirical time series analysis occur. Even if there are many similarities in the institutions of both economies, the authors identified different regular periodicities of the waves. The used frequency analysis is a slightly unique approach of business cycle modeling. The analysis of business cycle movements has significant potential to improve economic policy efficiency.

  17. Research on Business Models in their Life Cycle

    OpenAIRE

    Adam Jabłoński; Marek Jabłoński

    2016-01-01

    The paper presents the results of theoretical discussions and research findings in the field of designing sustainable business models that support the creation of value at various stages of the business life cycle. The paper presents selected findings of extensive research into the business models of Polish companies listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange. Companies which are at various stages of development should build and adapt their business models in order to maintain the ability to create ...

  18. Finnish and Swedish business cycles in a global context

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bergman, Ulf Michael

    This paper evaluates the decisions made by the Finnish government to join EMU and the Swedish government not to join EMU in the early 1990s. Focusing on the characteristics of business cycles during the postwar period, we find that output fluctuations in Sweden and Finland are correlated to two...... measures of the international business cycle, a European and a non-European cycle. The Finnish cycle has become more synchronized to the European cycle but less synchronized to the non-EU cycle after 1999. For Sweden we find the opposite result. The decision by the Finnish government to join EMU on...

  19. Euro area business cycles in turbulent times: convergence or decoupling?

    OpenAIRE

    Klaus, Benjamin; Ferroni, Filippo

    2015-01-01

    We study the business cycle properties of the four largest euro area economies in the wake of the recent recession episodes. The analysis is based on the factors estimated from a multi-country and multi-sector data-rich environment. We measure alikeness of business cycles by studying the synchronization of up and down phases, the convergence properties of country fluctuations towards the euro area cycles and the contribution of the euro area factor to national GDP volatilities. While the econ...

  20. Euro Area business cycles in turbulent times: convergence or decoupling?

    OpenAIRE

    Ferroni, F.; Klaus, B.

    2014-01-01

    We study the business cycle properties of the four largest euro area economies in the wake of the recent recession episodes. The analysis is based on the factors estimated from a multi-country and multi-sector data-rich environment. We measure alikeness of business cycles by studying the synchronization of up and down phases, the convergence properties of country fluctuations towards the euro area cycles and the contribution of the euro area factor to national GDP volatilities. While the econ...

  1. Austrian Business Cycle Theory: Did Iceland go through an Austrian Business Cycle?

    OpenAIRE

    Ragnar Haukur Ragnarsson 1978

    2012-01-01

    The question this research tries to answer is if an artificial credit expansion caused the Icelandic economy to go into an Austrian style business cycle in the first decade of this century. To answer that question data from the Statistic of Iceland and the Central Bank of Iceland will be studied. The period that will be looked at is the years from 2001 until 2010. The framework that is used is taken from Jesús Huerta de Soto´s book “Money, Bank Credit, and Economic Cycles”, in that book d...

  2. Analysis of Asset Classes Through the Business Cycle

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Audrius Dzikevičius

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available This study was driven by the dissimilar performance characteristics displayed by asset classes over the business cycle. The authors aim to explore assets classes on the grounds of a scientific literature review and a statistical analysis. Business cycles are divided into four stages to explore broad movements in returns of asset classes and a possible existence of asymmetrical effects of determinants within stages. Six main asset classes were analysed: US stocks, EAFE stocks, Bonds, Gold, Real Estate and Commodities. Monthly data from February 1976 to August 2011 were used for the study. The article combines business cycle and asset allocation theories by adding valuable information about performance of asset classes during different phases of the business cycle. Using the OECD Composite Leading Indicator as a business cycle measure, the authors demonstrate that different assets classes have different return/risk characteristics over the business cycle. The article demonstrates how to use the business cycle approach for investment decision-making. The OECD Composite Leading Indicator can provide significant information on market expectations and the future outlook; hence, results of this study can help every investor improve his/her performance and risk management.

  3. Cross Border Business Cycle (Impacts on Commercial Electricity Demand

    OpenAIRE

    Thomas M Fullerton Jr

    2004-01-01

    Border region electric utility service loads are impacted by national, regional, and international business cycles. To examine whether the cross-border components of these interactions can be reliably assessed, transfer ARIMA models are estimated for three business rate categories in El Paso, Texas. Chi-square goodness-of-fit results indicate tht exclusion of the international variables would worsen model performance.

  4. Measuring the Dynamics of Global Business Cycle Connectedness

    OpenAIRE

    Francis X. Diebold; Kamil Yilmaz

    2013-01-01

    Using a connectedness-measurement technology fundamentally grounded in modern network theory, we measure real output connectedness for a set of six developed countries, 1962-2010. We show that global connectedness is sizable and time-varying over the business cycle, and we study the nature of the time variation relative to the ongoing discussion about the changing nature of the global business cycle. We also show that connectedness corresponding to transmissions to others from the United Stat...

  5. Financial intermediation, investment dynamics and business cycle fluctuations

    OpenAIRE

    Ajello, Andrea

    2010-01-01

    How important are financial friction shocks in business cycles fluctuations? To answer this question, I use micro data to quantify key features of US financial markets. I then construct a dynamic equilibrium model that is consistent with these features and fit the model to business cycle data using Bayesian methods. In my micro data analysis, I establish facts that may be of independent interest. For example, I find that a substantial 33% of firm investment is funded using financial markets. ...

  6. Economic Integration, Business Cycle, and Productivity in North America

    OpenAIRE

    M. Ayhan Kose; Roberto Cardarelli

    2004-01-01

    This paper examines the effect of the major Canada-U.S. trade agreements on the dynamics of business cycles and productivity in Canada. The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and its predecessor, the Canada-U.S. Free Trade Agreement (CUSFTA), have led to a substantial expansion of trade flows. Although common factors have played a larger role in explaining business cycles in Canada and the United States since the early 1980s, country-specific and idiosyncratic factors remain importan...

  7. Oil Price Dynamics in a Real Business Cycle Model

    OpenAIRE

    Vipin Arora; Pedro Gomis-Porqueras

    2011-01-01

    We show the importance of endogenous oil prices and production in the real business cycle framework. Endogenising these variables improves the model’s predictions of business cycle statistics, oil related and non-oil related, relative to a situation where either is exogenous. This result is robust to the standard extensions (variable capacity utilisation and monopolistic competition) used in the literature. In particular, we first show that with either exogenous oil prices or production the s...

  8. Econometric Studies of Business Cycles in the History of Econometrics

    OpenAIRE

    Qin, Duo

    2010-01-01

    This study examines the evolution of econometric research in business cycle analysis during the 1960-90 period. It shows how the research was dominated by an assimilation of the tradition of NBER business cycle analysis by the Haavelmo-Cowles Commission approach, catalysed by time-series statistical methods. Methodological consequences of the assimilation are critically evaluated in light of the meagre achievement of the research in predicting the current global recession.

  9. Business cycle indexes: does a heap of data help?

    OpenAIRE

    Inklaar, Robert; Jacobs, Jan; Romp, Ward

    2003-01-01

    Business cycle indexes are used to get a timely and frequent description of the state of the economy and its likely development in the near future. This paper discusses two methods for constructing business cycle indexes, the traditional NBER method and a recently developed dynamic factor model, and compares these methods for the euro area. The results suggest that a reliable indicator can be constructed from a limited number of series that are selected using economic logic.

  10. Trade, Production Sharing and the International Transmission of Business Cycles

    OpenAIRE

    Ariel Burstein; Christopher Kurz; Linda Tesar

    2005-01-01

    Countries that are more engaged in production sharing exhibit higher bilateral manufacturing output correlations. We use data on trade flows between US multinationals and their affiliates as well as trade between the United States and Mexican maquiladoras to measure production-sharing trade and its link with the business cycle. We then develop a quantitative model of international business cycles that generates a positive link between the extent of vertically integrated production-sharing tra...

  11. Unemployment and Endogenous Reallocation over the Business Cycle

    OpenAIRE

    Ludo Visschers; Carlos Carrillo-Tudela

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents a tractable stochastic general equilibrium model in which to study different types of unemployment over the business cycle. In our model workers face search frictions on their local labor markets and reallocation frictions across labor markets. The interaction of these two types of frictions is shown to have important implications for the analysis of resource allocation over the business cycle. We focus attention on (i) the impact on the aggregate unemployment rate, and it...

  12. Trade and Business Cycle Correlations in Asia-Pacific

    OpenAIRE

    Kumakura, Masanaga; 熊倉, 正修

    2005-01-01

    Recent empirical studies challenge the traditional theory of optimum currency areas by arguing that a monetary union enhances trade and business cycle co-movements among its member countries sufficiently as to obviate the need for national monetary policy. This paper examines the empirical relationship between trade and business cycle correlations among thirteen Asia-Pacific countries, paying particular attention to the structural characteristics of their economies and other issues not explor...

  13. Analysis of Asset Classes Through the Business Cycle

    OpenAIRE

    Audrius Dzikevičius; Jaroslav Vetrov

    2012-01-01

    This study was driven by the dissimilar performance characteristics displayed by asset classes over the business cycle. The authors aim to explore assets classes on the grounds of a scientific literature review and a statistical analysis. Business cycles are divided into four stages to explore broad movements in returns of asset classes and a possible existence of asymmetrical effects of determinants within stages. Six main asset classes were analysed: US stocks, EAFE stocks, Bonds, Gold, Rea...

  14. Business cycle phases in U.S. states

    OpenAIRE

    Michael T. Owyang; Jeremy M. Piger; Howard J. Wall

    2004-01-01

    The U.S. aggregate business cycle is often characterized as a series of distinct recession and expansion phases. We apply a regime-switching model to state-level coincident indexes to characterize state business cycles in this way. We find that states differ a great deal in the levels of growth that they experience in the two phases: Recession growth rates are related to industry mix, whereas expansion growth rates are related to education and age composition. Further, states differ significa...

  15. The Role of Mining in an Australian Business Cycle Model

    OpenAIRE

    Veroude, Alexandra

    2012-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to evaluate a business cycle model that includes a mining sector, with the cyclical variations of the Australian Economy. Large quantities of mineral deposits are found in Australia and there exists high demand for these minerals from developing nations. This results in the mining sector contributing to a high proportion of GDP. Surprisingly, the inclusion of a mining sector has not previously been studied in a business cycle model. Australia is a small open econo...

  16. On the Role of Monetary Factors in Business Cycle Models

    OpenAIRE

    Bagliano, Fabio-Cesare; Marini, Giancarlo

    1991-01-01

    Granger-causality tests and innovation analyses based on Vector Autoregression models seem to deny any role for monetary factors in generating and shaping business cycle fluctuations. The present paper shows that such empirical support for Real Business Cycle theories is flawed. In particular, it is demonstrated that an extended version of the Lucas paradigm can explain the existing evidence rather accurately, when changes in policy regimes are explicitly modelled.

  17. Agency Costs, Balance Sheets and the Business Cycle

    OpenAIRE

    Philip Lowe; Thomas Rohling

    1993-01-01

    The 1980s witnessed large increases in corporate debt and sustained asset price inflation. More recently, asset prices, particularly commercial property prices, have fallen significantly. The effect of these changes on balance sheets, and their implications for the business cycle, have generated considerable interest among academics and policy makers. In this paper, we review recent theoretical models that link the evolution of the business cycle to changes in firm equity. This link arises ou...

  18. Developing Country Business Cycles: Revisiting the Stylised Facts

    OpenAIRE

    Male, Rachel

    2010-01-01

    Identifying business cycle stylised facts is essential as these often form the basis for the construction and validation of theoretical business cycle models. Furthermore, understanding the cyclical patterns in economic activity, and their causes, is important to the decisions of both policymakers and market participants. Previous analyses of developing country stylised facts have tended to feature only small samples, for example the seminal paper by Agénor et al. (2000) considers just twelve...

  19. Self-employment and the local business cycle

    OpenAIRE

    Svaleryd, Helena

    2013-01-01

    The business cycle is likely to be of importance for self-employment rates. When the economy is growing, business opportunities open up and encourage the set-up of new firms. In downturns self-employment may be a way to avoid unemployment. The strength of these pull and push factors may depend on the amount of human capital a person has. The findings in this paper show that although the local business cycle is of minor importance for total self-employment rates in Sweden there are heterogeneo...

  20. Good times, bad times: entrepreneurship and the business cycle

    OpenAIRE

    Sanchis Llopis, JA; Millán, JM; Baptista, R.; Burke, A; Parker, SC; Thurik, R

    2015-01-01

    This article introduces the special issue on Entrepreneurship and the Business Cycle, comprising articles presented at the workshop Good Times Bad Times: Entrepreneurship and the Cycle, held at the University of Valencia in November 2011. The workshop was organized to share insights about the under-researched issue of the interplay between entrepreneurship and cyclical dimensions of entrepreneurship.

  1. Income inequality and the business cycle

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shahee Mostafa

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper first examines the relationship between ordinary least squares estimators of consumption and investment for 36 selected countries with their respective Gini indices. The analysis shows that income inequality is consistent with a smaller estimator of consumption and a greater estimator of investment. Second, the cycles of GDP, consumption and investment are dated separately to determine how the deepness and duration of cycles of those variables are correlated with the Gini indices of countries. The results show that income inequality leads to a deeper and longer decline of GDP, which causes a greater cumulative income loss of GDP during recession, and a somewhat faster speed of recovery during expansion. Likewise, the result of a correlation between Gini indices and the number of cycles in consumption, investment and GDP indicate that income inequality is associated with a greater number of cycles in consumption and GDP and a lower number of cycles in investment.

  2. Testing the Power of Leading Indicators to Predict Business Cycle Phase Changes

    OpenAIRE

    Allan Layton; Smith, Daniel R.

    2005-01-01

    In the business cycle literature researchers often want to determine the extent to which models of the business cycle reproduce broad characteristics of the real world business cycle they purport to represent. Of considerable interest is whether a model’s implied cycle chronology is consistent with the actual business cycle chronology. In the US, a very widely accepted business cycle chronology is that compiled by the National Bureau of Economic research (NBER) and the vast majority of US bus...

  3. Research on Business Models in their Life Cycle

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adam Jabłoński

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents the results of theoretical discussions and research findings in the field of designing sustainable business models that support the creation of value at various stages of the business life cycle. The paper presents selected findings of extensive research into the business models of Polish companies listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange. Companies which are at various stages of development should build and adapt their business models in order to maintain the ability to create value for stakeholders. Characteristics of business models at the early stages of development are different than at mature stages. The paper highlights the differences in business models in the context of the life cycle of companies and sustainability criteria. The paper presents research findings which show that the company’s development can be seen from the point of view of the business model. Research on business models concentrated on identifying the key attributes and the configuration of the business models appropriate for the early stage of development as well as the maturity stage. It was found that the business models of companies at an early stage of the development of companies listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange are oriented primarily to how the company shapes, delivers, and captures value from the market in order to generate profits for shareholders and increase the value of the company, while the business models of mature companies include the intentions of management used to balance objectives with respect to different groups of stakeholders, and to carefully formulate and implement business objectives with particular attention paid to preserving the sustainability of the business. The assessment of business models from the point of view of the life cycle proves that managers change their approach to configuring business models over time; at some point, they include management intentions aimed at a broader range of goals than merely

  4. The physics of business cycles and inflation

    OpenAIRE

    Hans G. Danielmeyer; Thomas Martinetz

    2012-01-01

    We analyse four consecutive cycles observed in the USA for employment and inflation. They are driven by three oil price shocks and an intended interest rate shock. Non-linear coupling between the rate equations for consumer products as prey and consumers as predators provides the required instability, but its natural damping is too high for spontaneous cycles. Extending the Lotka-Volterra equations with a small term for collective anticipation yields a second analytic solution without damping...

  5. The exposure of technology and knowledge intense sectors to the business cycle

    OpenAIRE

    Werner Hölzl; Serguei Kaniovski; Andreas Reinstaller

    2015-01-01

    This paper studies the business cycle sensitivity of industries using different industry groupings. The results show that technologically intense industries are heavily affected by business cycles. While the overall importance of business cycles for long-run growth seems to be rather limited, we observe for industries with high technology intensity that business cycles may have persistent long-run effects on sectoral performance.

  6. The nuclear fuel cycle business in Japan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In Japan, the development and use of nuclear power are considered key building blocks of safe energy supply in the 21st century. Closing the nuclear fuel cycle so as to utilize uranium and plutonium from spent fuel elements is to establish nuclear power as a quasi-domestic energy source in Japan. Japan Nuclear Fuel Ltd. is the only private enterprise in Japan to offer nuclear fuel cycle services. At Rokkasho, the company operates plants for reprocessing (under construction), uranium enrichment, treatment of radioactive waste, and a repository for low level radioactive materials. Consequently, an important sector of Japan's future energy supply is ensured on this location. (orig.)

  7. Credit Risk Migration Analysis of Illinois Farm Business: Possible Impacts of Farm Business Cycle

    OpenAIRE

    Zhang, Tianwei; Katchova, Ani L.

    2005-01-01

    This study uses the cohort approach to estimate the credit risk migration probability of farm business. Using data from the Farm Business and Farm Management, this study rates the credit risk into 10 risk levels plus a default level, defines a farm business cycle with peak, normal and trough periods and evaluates the effect on farm financial performance of the farm business booms and slumps. The results show that the farms with low credit risk are more likely to stay in the same risk level bu...

  8. Turning Points: Business Cycles in Canada Since 1926

    OpenAIRE

    Philip Cross; Philippe Bergevin

    2012-01-01

    Market-based economies tend to exhibit cyclical behaviour. The recent financial crisis, with devastating impacts that are still being felt today, has added urgency to the drive to improve our understanding of business cycles. Pinpointing key turning points in the economy, meaning when recession takes hold or growth resumes, is vital for policymakers, businesses and consumers alike. In this paper, the authors clarify how best to define a recession and measure its severity. And, to create a fou...

  9. Instability of capitalism inflation, unemployment, and business cycles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adil H. Mouhammed

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the instability of capitalism defined as a condition under which capitalism creates inflation, unemployment, and business cycles. Great economists such as Marx, Veblen, and Schumpeter have examined this problem, concluding that capitalist instability will transform capitalism. A model is developed in this paper to investigate instability, and the finding is that the basic causebehind instability is the conflict on income share: wages and profits. The fluctuations in the share of profits create inflation, unemployment, and business cycles. This generalization has been verified by using data from the American economy for the 1970s, 1980s, and the 1990s. Over this period, the paper concludes, whenthe profit share is high, moderate inflation and employment were generated, and when profit share is low, inflation, unemployment, and business cycles have appeared.

  10. Inventories, Fluctuations and Business Cycles. Working paper #4

    OpenAIRE

    Maccini, Louis J.; Adrian Pagan

    2006-01-01

    The paper looks at the role of inventories in U.S. business cycles and fluctuations. It concentrates upon the goods producing sector and constructs a model that features both input and output inventories. A range of shocks are present in the model, including sales, technology and inventory cost shocks. It is found that the presence of inventories does not change the average business cycle characteristics in the U.S. very much. The model is also used to examine whether new techniques for inven...

  11. The Austrian Business Cycle Theory: Validity and Implications

    OpenAIRE

    2009-01-01

    In this thesis the Austrian business cycle theory is analyzed. Based on the work of Eugen von Böhm-Bawerk (1959[1889]), Knut Wicksell (1962[1898]) and Ludwig von Mises (1953[1912]), the theory was further developed and made famous by Friedrich von Hayek in the 1930s. Arguably, Hayek was the main rival of Keynes during this decade, but after heavy criticism and the publication of the General Theory (Keynes, 1936), the Austrian business cycle theory was left with few advocates by the end of Wor...

  12. Business Cycle Accounting for Argentina Utilizing Capital Utilization

    OpenAIRE

    Tiago Cavalcanti; Pedro Elosegui; George McCandless; Emilio Blanco

    2008-01-01

    We use a variation on the business cycle accounting method of Chari, Kehoe and McGrattan (CKM) to study the business cycle in Argentina from 1972 to 2006. The method uses real data together with the equilibrium conditions of a prototype growth model to measure four wedges that are explained by the variables of the model. These wedges can be viewed as distortions from a perfectly competitive economy and represent the result of a set of policies and institutions which affect productivity and fa...

  13. Payroll Taxes, Social Insurance and Business Cycles

    OpenAIRE

    Burda, Michael C.; Weder, Mark

    2010-01-01

    Payroll taxes represent a major distortionary influence of governments on labor markets. This paper examines the role of payroll taxation and the social safety net for cyclical fluctuations in a nonmonetary economy with labor market frictions and unemployment insurance, when the latter is only imperfectly related to search effort. A balanced social insurance budget renders gross wages more rigid over the cycle and, as a result, strengthens the model’s endogenous propagation mechanism. For con...

  14. Market Wide Liquidity Instability in Business Cycles

    OpenAIRE

    Chatterjee, Sidharta

    2009-01-01

    This paper deals with an existing question; does market liquidity disequilibrium leads to stock market bubble burst? Contemporary research has shown that liquidity is the key driving force behind capital market growth and its sustenance. Stock markets usually react to changes in market-wide liquidity, whose supply-demand cycle fluctuates with investor behavior actions. Market illiquidity due to supply shocks or sudden redemption, does exert strain on the financial markets as of when if too mu...

  15. Business Cycles in Emerging Economies: the role of interest rates

    OpenAIRE

    Pablo A. Neumeyer; Fabrizio Perri

    1999-01-01

    We find that in a sample of emerging economies business cycles are more volatile than in developed ones, real interest rates are countercyclical and lead the cycle, consumption is more volatile than output and net exports are strongly countercyclical. We present a model of a small open economy, where the real interest rate is decomposed in an international rate and a country risk component. Country risk is affected by fundamental shocks but, through the presence of working capital, also ampli...

  16. Business cycles and leading indicators of industrial activity in India

    OpenAIRE

    Mohanty, Jaya; Singh, Bhupal; Jain, Rajeev

    2003-01-01

    The identification of business cycles in India and construction of a composite leading indicator for forecasting the cyclical turning points have been the focus of this study. The cyclical analysis of monthly index of industrial production (IIP) in India applying the Bry-Boschan procedure indicates that there have been 13 growth cycles in the Indian economy with varying durations during 1970-71 to 2001-02. While the average duration of expansion has been 12 months, the recessions are characte...

  17. A Simple Real Business Cycle Model of the Czech Economy

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Baxa, Jaromír

    Bratislava : University of Economics in Bratislava, 2008, s. 28-38 ISBN 978-80-8078-217-7. [Quantitative Methods in Economics: Multiplie Criteria Decision Making XIV. Tatranská Lomnica (SK), 05.07.2008-07.07.2008] Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : real business cycle * DSGE model * Kdylant-Prescott filter * Czech economy Subject RIV: AH - Economics

  18. Business cycle fluctuations and excess sensitivity of private consumption

    OpenAIRE

    Gert Peersman; Lorenzo Pozzi

    2007-01-01

    We investigate whether business cycle fluctuations affect the degree of excess sensitivity of private consumption growth to disposable income growth. Using multivariate state space methods and quarterly US data for the period 1965-2000 we find that excess sensitivity is significantly higher during recessions.

  19. National Business Cycles and Community Competition for Jobs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kasarda, John D.; Irwin, Michael D.

    1991-01-01

    Analysis of employment change data for 3,101 counties during recent national recession and recovery periods found that factors derived from human ecological theory (density, infrastructure age, unionization, labor force education, and crime rate) best predicted local competitive dynamics across all business-cycle phases. Contains 60 references.…

  20. A comparison of exchange economies within a monetary business cycle

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Benk, S.; Gillman, M.; Kejak, Michal

    -, E2005/14 (2005), s. 1-26. ISSN 1749-6101 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z70850503 Keywords : cash-in-advance * credit production * monetary business cycle Subject RIV: AH - Economics http://www.cardiff.ac.uk/carbs/econ/workingpapers/papers/2005_14.pdf

  1. Managing Business-to-Business Relationships throughout the E-Commerce Procurement Life Cycle.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Archer, Norm; Yuan, Yufei

    2000-01-01

    Since the core of e-commerce is information and communications, support for managing customer relationships is available to those who know how to use it. Discusses how technology can be used to encourage and facilitate customer-business relationships. Shows through a customer relationship life cycle model how the management of related procurement…

  2. Informational Asymmetries and the International Transmission of Business Cycles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patricio Mujica

    1988-03-01

    Full Text Available Informational Asymmetries and the International Transmission of Business Cycles Several recent papers have analyzed the international transmission of economic disturbances in a context in which all goods are traded. Additionaly, those papers assume alternatively full contemporaneous infomation on financial variables is not available at all. A key feature of the model is that agent in each country observe all those variables directly linked with the markets in wich they usuallyy trade but they do not have access to the infomation provided by the market for nontraded goods in the foreign countrv. Therefore. the introduction of nontreded goods provides a natural settings for assuming an asymmetry in the information set available to agents across countries. It is shown that this asymmetry is crucial for the existence of real effects associated with monetary shocks and also for the nature of the international transmission  of business cycles across countries.

  3. Instability of capitalism inflation, unemployment, and business cycles

    OpenAIRE

    Adil H. Mouhammed

    2006-01-01

    This paper investigates the instability of capitalism defined as a condition under which capitalism creates inflation, unemployment, and business cycles. Great economists such as Marx, Veblen, and Schumpeter have examined this problem, concluding that capitalist instability will transform capitalism. A model is developed in this paper to investigate instability, and the finding is that the basic cause behind instability is the conflict on income share: wages and profits. The fluctuations i...

  4. Instability of capitalism inflation, unemployment, and business cycles

    OpenAIRE

    Adil H. Mouhammed

    2006-01-01

    This paper investigates the instability of capitalism defined as a condition under which capitalism creates inflation, unemployment, and business cycles. Great economists such as Marx, Veblen, and Schumpeter have examined this problem, concluding that capitalist instability will transform capitalism. A model is developed in this paper to investigate instability, and the finding is that the basic causebehind instability is the conflict on income share: wages and profits. The fluctuations in th...

  5. Essays on oil and business cycles in Saudi Arabia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aba Alkhail, Bandar A.

    This dissertation consists of three chapters. Chapter one presents a theoretical model using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) approach to investigate the role of world oil prices in explaining the business cycle in Saudi Arabia. This model incorporates both productivity and oil revenue shocks. The results indicate that productivity shocks are relatively more important to business cycles than oil shocks. However, this model has some unfavorable features that are associated with both investment and labor hours. The second chapter presents a modified theoretical model using DSGE approach to examine the role of world oil prices versus productivity shocks in explaining the business cycles in Saudi Arabia. To overcome the unfavorable features of the baseline model, the alternative model adds friction to the model by incorporating investment portfolio adjustment cost. Thus, the alternative model produces similar dynamics to that of the baseline model but the unfavorable characteristics are eliminated. Also, this chapter conducts sensitivity analysis. The objective of the third chapter is to empirically investigate how real world oil price and productivity shocks affect output, consumption, investment, labor hours, and trade balance/output ratio for Saudi Arabia. This chapter complements the theoretical model of the previous chapters. In addition, this study builds a foundation for future studies in examining the impact of real world oil price shocks on the economies of key trade partners of Saudi Arabia. The results of the third chapter show that productivity shocks matter more for macroeconomic fluctuations than oil shocks for the Saudis' primary trade partners. Therefore, fears of oil importing countries appear to be overstated. As a whole, this research is important for the following reasons. First, the empirical model is consistent with the predictions of our theoretical model in that productivity is a driving force of business cycles in Saudi Arabia

  6. Stock Market Dispersion, Sectoral Shocks, and the German Business Cycle

    OpenAIRE

    Döpke, Jörg; Pierdzioch, Christian

    2000-01-01

    This paper elaborates on the relative importance of sectoral shocks for real economic activity in Germany. Implications of multi-sectoral real business cycle models are examined by resorting to testing techniques based on stock market returns. The empirical evidence is obtained by calculating cross-correlation coefficients of sectoral stock market returns with industrial production, by estimating a limited dependent variable model, and by setting up a trivariate structural vector autoregressi...

  7. Individuals' Unemployment Experiences: Heterogeneity and Business Cycle Effects

    OpenAIRE

    Kalwij, Adriaan S.

    2001-01-01

    This study examines individuals? unemployment experiences from the age of 18 up to the age of 35 using a large panel of administrative records on unemployment related benefit claims of men in the United Kingdom over the past two decades. The main focus is on the extent to which individuals? unemployment experiences are affected by regional and skill differences, i.e. individual heterogeneity, and the business cycle. In particular this study analyses the extent to which repeated unemployment i...

  8. Nominal stylized facts of U. S. business cycles

    OpenAIRE

    Apostolos Serletis; David Krause

    1996-01-01

    The authors investigate the basic nominal stylized facts of business cycles in the United States, using monthly data from 1960:1 to 1993:4 and the methodology suggested by Kydland and Prescott (1990). They make comparisons among simple sum and Divisia aggregates, using the Thornton and Yue (1992) series of Divisia monetary aggregates, and they investigate the robustness of the results to relevant nonstochastic stationarity-inducing transformations.

  9. Searching for opportunistic political business cycles in Turkey.

    OpenAIRE

    Asutay, M.

    2004-01-01

    The literature on political business cycles (PBC) suggests that incumbent governments manipulate the economy for political reasons, in particular for winning elections. Accordingly, it is argued that incumbent governments manipulate the economy to create better economic conditions in the pre-election period with declining unemployment and increasing growth rates of the economy and inflation to enhance the likelihood of reelection. The theory suggests that post-election periods ...

  10. STABILIZING THE AUSTRALIAN BUSINESS CYCLE: GOOD LUCK OR GOOD POLICY?

    OpenAIRE

    Philip Liu

    2007-01-01

    This paper examines the sources of Australia's business cycle fluctuations focusing on the role of international shocks and short run stabilization policy. A VAR model identified using robust sign restrictions derived from an estimated structural model is used to aid the investigation. The results indicate that, in contrast to previous VAR studies, foreign factors contribute over half of domestic output forecast errors whereas innovation from output itself has little effect. Furthermore, mone...

  11. Business Cycle Synchronization in the East Asian Economies

    OpenAIRE

    Xulan Yu; Yoshihiko Tsukuda

    2007-01-01

    The paper examines the possibility of financial cooperation by investigating the business cycle synchronization among the eight core East Asian countries(China, Japan, Korea, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand) using the logarithm of per capita real GDP data from 1994Q1 to 2005Q3. The paper employs the model of multivariate time series analysis developed by Engle and Kozicki (1993) and Vahid and Engle (1993). The empirical study reveals that the per capita real GDP ...

  12. How is Tax Policy Conducted over the Business Cycle?

    OpenAIRE

    Carlos A. Vegh; Guillermo Vuletin

    2012-01-01

    It is well known by now that government spending has typically been procyclical in developing economies but acyclical or countercyclical in industrial countries. Little, if any, is known, however, about the cyclical behavior of tax rates (as opposed to tax revenues, which are endogenous to the business cycle and hence cannot shed light on the cyclicality of tax policy). We build a novel dataset on tax rates for 62 countries for the period 1960-2013 that comprises corporate income, personal in...

  13. Advertising and price effectiveness over the business cycle.

    OpenAIRE

    Gijsenberg, Maarten; Heerde, Harald J. van; Dekimpe, Marnik; Steenkamp, Jan-Benedict E. M

    2009-01-01

    In this study, the authors conduct a systematic investigation on the evolution in the effectiveness of two important marketing mix instruments, advertising and price, over the business cycle. Analyses are based on 163 branded products in 37 mature CPG categories in the UK, and this for a period of 15 years. The data are a combination of (i) monthly national sales data, (ii) monthly advertising data, (iii) data on the general economic conditions, and (iv) consumer survey data. Consumers are sh...

  14. Advertising and price effectiveness over the business cycle

    OpenAIRE

    Gijsenberg, Maarten; van Heerde, Harald; Dekimpe, Marnik G.; Steenkamp, Jan-Benedict E. M

    2009-01-01

    In this study, the authors conduct a systematic investigation on the evolution in the effectiveness of two important marketing mix instruments, advertising and price, over the business cycle. Analyses are based on 163 branded products in 37 mature CPG categories in the UK, and this for a period of 15 years. The data are a combination of (i) monthly national sales data, (ii) monthly advertising data, (iii) data on the general economic conditions, and (iv) consumer survey data. Consumers are sh...

  15. Small sample properties of GMM for business cycle analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Lawrence J. Christiano; Wouter Den Haan

    1995-01-01

    We investigate, by Monte Carlo methods, the finite sample properties of GMM procedures for conducting inference about statistics that are of interest in the business cycle literature. These statistics include the second moments of data filtered using the first difference and Hodrick-Prescott filters, and they include statistics for evaluating model fit. Our results indicate that, for the procedures considered, the existing asymptotic theory is not a good guide in a sample the size of quarterl...

  16. Fluctuations in a mixed IS-LM business cycle model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hamad Talibi Alaoui

    2008-09-01

    Full Text Available In the present paper, we extend a delayed IS-LM business cycle model by introducing an additional advance (anticipated capital stock in the investment function. The resulting model is represented in terms of mixed differential equations. For the deviating argument $au$ (advance and delay being a bifurcation parameter we investigate the local stability and the local Hopf bifurcation. Also some numerical simulations are given to support the theoretical analysis.

  17. Trade Volatility, Business Cycle Synchronization, and Inventory Dynamics

    OpenAIRE

    Virgiliu Midrigan; Joseph Kaboski; George Alessandria

    2011-01-01

    We study the role of inventories for the volatility of international trade and the propagation of business cycles. We build a model of international trade in which intermediaries have a precautionary motive to hold inventories. With either productivity or demand shocks, we find inventories increase the volatility of international trade whenever traded goods have relatively high inventory holdings. Moreover, net exports are now more strongly countercyclical and appear in line with the data. We...

  18. THE NEW CLASSICAL THEORY AND THE REAL BUSINESS CYCLE MODEL

    OpenAIRE

    Oana Simona HUDEA (CARAMAN); Sorin George TOMA; Marin BURCEA

    2014-01-01

    The present paper aims at describing some key elements of the new classical theory-related model, namely the Real Business Cycle, mainly describing the economy from the perspective of a perfectly competitive market, characterised by price, wage and interest rate flexibility. The rendered impulse-response functions, that help us in revealing the capacity of the model variables to return to their steady state under the impact of a structural shock, be it technology or monetary policy oriented, ...

  19. The dynamics of entrepreneurship: hysteresis, business cycles and government policy

    OpenAIRE

    Congregado, Emilio; Golpe, Antonio A.; Parker, Simon C.

    2009-01-01

    This paper estimates an unobserved components model to explore the macro dynamics of entrepreneurship in Spain and the US. We ask whether entrepreneurship exhibits hysteresis, defined as a macro dynamic structure in which cyclical fluctuations have persistent effects on the natural rate of entrepreneurship. We find evidence of hysteresis in Spain, but not the US, while in both countries business cycle output variations significantly affect future rates of entrepreneurship. The article discuss...

  20. Dynamics of the driven Goodwin business cycle equation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    We study dynamics of the Goodwin nonlinear accelerator business cycle model with periodic forced autonomous investment Ia(t) = a(1 – cos ωt), where a and ω are the amplitude and the frequency of investment. We give examples of the parameters a and ω when the chaotic oscillations of income are possible. We find the critical values of amplitude acr (ω): if a > acr (ω) the period of the income equals to the driving period T=2π/ω

  1. A Business Cycle Analysis of Debt and Equity Financing

    OpenAIRE

    Karabarbounis , Marios; Macnamara, Patrick; McCord, Roisin

    2014-01-01

    This article provides an introductory, yet comprehensive, business cycle analysis of firm financing. Using data from Compustat, we find that debt issuance is procyclical while the net sale of stock is countercyclical. However, an equity financing measure that includes stock compensation and especially mergers turns out to be weakly procyclical. Nevertheless, there is widespread heterogeneity in firm financing. Compared to large firms, the equity issuance of small firms tends to be more procyc...

  2. A Model of Primary and Secondary Waves in Business Cycles

    OpenAIRE

    Fioretti, G.

    1998-01-01

    Schumpeter maintained that oscillations of macroeconomic variables are only the “secondary wave” of business cycles, a reflex of more fundamental “primary waves” at the microeconomic level caused by the innovating activity of entrepreneurs. Blending Schumpeter’s concern for innovation with Keynes’ concern for uncertainty and expectation formation, this article focuses on the behaviour of entrepreneurs in front of the uncertainty caused by innovation. Entrepreneurs’ behaviour is reconstructed ...

  3. Real Business Cycle Models of the Great Depression

    OpenAIRE

    Pensieroso, Luca

    2009-01-01

    The Great Depression of the 1930s is again on the frontier of research in macroeconomics. Researchers working in the real business cycle (RBC) tradition have recently started to apply their theoretical apparatus to the event. This paper discusses the result of their work and assesses the role of history and macroeconomics in analysing the Great Depression. I argue that the breaking of the depression taboo in macroeconomics has been a desirable completion of the cliometric revolution: no histo...

  4. Ragnar Frisch’s contribution to business cycle analysis

    OpenAIRE

    BJERKHOLT, Olav

    2007-01-01

    Business cycle analysis, i.e. investigations into the more or less regular fluctuations in economic activity, emerged around the mid-nineteenth century. During Ragnar Frisch’s formative years as a young economist the field came to the centre of attention. Frisch was highly concerned about the inability of modern economies in the midst of plenty to prevent economic fluctuations from playing havoc with the livelihood of millions. He first directed his attention towards methods for analysing tim...

  5. Health disparities across income and the business cycle

    OpenAIRE

    Hildur Margrét Jóhannsdóttir 1994

    2016-01-01

    We examine how business cycles affect income-related distribution of diseases and health disorders. By using data from a survey conducted by the Directorate of Health in Iceland in 2007, 2009 and 2012 we aim at examining how the prevalence of thirty diseases and health conditions is distributed across the income spectrum. Furthermore, we take advantage of the unusually sharp changes in economic conditions in Iceland during the Great Recession initiated in 2008 and the partial recovery that ha...

  6. Financial Constraints, Financial Shocks, and Business Cycle Accounting.

    OpenAIRE

    RIMARCHI, Massimiliano

    2012-01-01

    This thesis features three closely related chapters investigating the role of the investment wedge in affecting macroeconomic fluctuations. The first chapter shows that the Business Cycle Accounting (BCA) methodology is sensitive to the specification of households preferences in identifying the role of the investment wedge. A poor performance of the investment wedge and of the financial frictions it represents, such as the one BCA finds on 2007-2010 US data and other past events, is compatibl...

  7. Determinants of Business Cycle Comovement: A Robust Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Marianne Baxter; Michael A. Kouparitsas

    2004-01-01

    This paper investigates the determinants of business cycle comovement between countries. Our dataset includes over 100 countries, both developed and developing. We search for variables that are “robust” in explaining comovement, using the approach of Leamer (1983). Variables considered are (i) bilateral trade between countries; (ii) total trade in each country; (iii) sectoral structure; (iv) similarity in export and import baskets; (v) factor endowments; and (vi) gravity variables. We find th...

  8. Imperfect Competition, Nominal Wage Contracts and the Business Cycle

    OpenAIRE

    Zuzana Janko

    2008-01-01

    We introduce nominal wage contracts into a competitive and a noncompetitive labor market structure. We find these models to have similar business cycle properties, but we argue that the imperfectly competitive market structure is more appropriate for nominal wage contract analyzes. We introduce imperfect competition to the labor market by assuming that households have market power and consequently choose nominal wage contracts as part of their maximization problem, while in a competitive stru...

  9. Income Risk and Aggregate Demand over the Business Cycle

    OpenAIRE

    Mericle, David

    2012-01-01

    This dissertation consists of three essays on income risk and aggregate demand over the business cycle, each addressing an aspect of the Great Recession. The first chapter reframes the standard liquidity trap model to illustrate the costly feedback loop between idiosyncratic risk and aggregate demand. I first show that a liquidity trap can result from excess demand for precautionary savings in times of high uncertainty. Second, I show that the output and welfare costs of the ensuing recession d...

  10. Capital Market Frictions, Business Cycle and Monetary Transmission

    OpenAIRE

    Olivier Pierrard

    2005-01-01

    Empirical evidence shows that some firms may be capital constraint because of capital market imperfections. We therefore extend the business cycle models with frictions `a la Pissarides on the labour market by also introducing symmetric frictions on the capital market. We show that the capital market frictions (and their interactions with the labour market frictions) improve the statistical properties of the model and generate a financial accelerator.

  11. Employed and unemployed job seekers and the business cycle

    OpenAIRE

    Longhi, Simonetta; Taylor, Mark

    2013-01-01

    The job search literature suggests that on-the-job search reduces the probability of unemployed people finding a job. However, there is little evidence that employed and unemployed job seekers are similar or apply for the same jobs. We compare employed and unemployed job seekers in terms of their individual characteristics, preferences over working hours, job-search strategies and employment histories, and identify how any differences vary over the business cycle. We find systematic differenc...

  12. POLITICAL BUSINESS CYCLE AND ECONOMIC INSTABILITY - LITERATURE REVIEW

    OpenAIRE

    Claudiu-Gabriel Tiganas; Claudiu Peptine

    2012-01-01

    This paper analyzes the fundamental concepts that compose the phenomenon of political business cycle and the models that have been created to support this theoretical background. A first theory on this concept is considered to be the classic perspective, which has been developed by William Nordhaus in 1975. As a result of his work, other research started to appear with multiple theories and vis ions upon this phenomenon. Through this paper we have tried to highlight the most important of thes...

  13. How Important are Financial Shocks for the Canadian Business Cycle?

    OpenAIRE

    Shin-Ichi Nishiyama

    2011-01-01

    In this paper, we investigate the importance of financial shocks for the Canadian business cycle employing the financial friction DSGE framework following Bernanke, Gertler, and Gilchrist (1999) with an extension of a small-open economy feature. In particular, we explored the importance of an external finance premium shock and an aggregate net worth shock. In order to identify financial shocks in the model, we utilized financial data in estimating our model. Our variance decomposition results...

  14. Various problems in establishment of fuel cycle business in Japan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Since Japan instituted the Atomic Energy Act in 1956, and organized the Atomic Energy Commission, as the fundamental policy of the peaceful use of atomic energy, the industrialization and establishment of fuel cycle technology have been advanced as well as the development of power reactors. The consistent and harmonious industrialization of uranium enrichment, fuel fabrication, reprocessing, the utilization of recovered plutonium and uranium, and the storage, treatment and disposal of wastes has been the target. As the nuclear power generation in Japan grew, the enhancement of the various factors of nuclear fuel cycle as the base of supporting nuclear power generation has become necessary. The effort of technical development has been continued in the fields of uranium enrichment, fuel reprocessing, plutonium fuel and waste treatment by the Power Reactor and Nuclear Fuel Development Corp., Japan Atomic Energy Research Institute and related industries. The plan and present status of nuclear fuel cycle business in Japan, the problems such as the roles of the government and private enterprises, technology transfer, the economy of nuclear fuel cycle business, the industrialization of mixed oxide fuel fabrication, nuclear nonproliferation policy and location are discussed. (Kako, I.)

  15. Business Cycle Accounting in a Small Open Economy

    OpenAIRE

    Jacek Rothert; Mohammad Rahmati

    2014-01-01

    Building on Chari et al. (2007), we develop a method to assess theories of business cycles in small open economies. We build a diagnostic economy with time-varying distortions (wedges), which measure the gap between model generated aggregates and the data. We introduce two new wedges, which allow us to fully account for the movements in the trade balance and the current account: (i) the trend-shock wedge and (ii) the debt price wedge. We show how various detailed models with frictions map to ...

  16. Fiscal Policy over the Real Business Cycle: A Positive Theory

    OpenAIRE

    Marco Battaglini; Stephen Coate

    2008-01-01

    This paper presents a political economy theory of the behavior of fiscal policy over the business cycle. The theory predicts that, in both booms and recessions, fiscal policies are set so that the marginal cost of public funds obeys a submartingale. In the short run, fiscal policy can be pro-cyclical with government debt spiking up upon entering a boom. However, in the long run, fiscal policy is counter-cyclical with debt increasing in recessions and decreasing in booms. Government spending i...

  17. Development on nuclear fuel cycle business in Japan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Japan Nuclear Fuel Co., Ltd. (JNF) develops five businesses on nuclear fuel cycle such as uranium concentration, storage and administration of high level radioactive wastes, disposition of low level radioactive wastes, used fuel reprocessing, MOX fuel, at Rokkasho-mura in Aomori prefecture. Here were introduced on outline, construction and operation in reprocessing and MOX fuel works, outline, present state and future subjects on technical development of uranium concentration, outline and safety of disposition center on low level radioactive wastes, and storage and administration of high level radioactive wastes. (G.K.)

  18. Modelling supply networks and business cycles as unstable transport phenomena

    Science.gov (United States)

    Helbing, Dirk

    2003-07-01

    Physical concepts developed to describe instabilities in traffic flows can be generalized in a way that allows one to understand the well-known instability of supply chains (the so-called 'bull-whip effect'). That is, small variations in the consumption rate can cause large variations in the production rate of companies generating the requested product. Interestingly, the resulting oscillations have characteristic frequencies which are considerably lower than the variations in the consumption rate. This suggests that instabilities of supply chains may be the reason for the existence of business cycles. At the same time, we establish some links to queueing theory and between micro- and macroeconomics.

  19. Banking firm and hedging over the business cycle

    OpenAIRE

    Wong, KP; Broll, U

    2010-01-01

    This paper examines the behavior of a banking firm under risk. The banking firm can hedge its risk exposure by trading futures contracts. The banking firm is risk averse and possesses a utility function defined over its end-of-period income and a state variable that denotes the business cycle of the economy. We show that the banking firm optimally opts for an over-hedge or an under-hedge, depending on whether the returns on the futures contracts are negatively or positively correlated with th...

  20. THE NEW CLASSICAL THEORY AND THE REAL BUSINESS CYCLE MODEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oana Simona HUDEA (CARAMAN

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available The present paper aims at describing some key elements of the new classical theory-related model, namely the Real Business Cycle, mainly describing the economy from the perspective of a perfectly competitive market, characterised by price, wage and interest rate flexibility. The rendered impulse-response functions, that help us in revealing the capacity of the model variables to return to their steady state under the impact of a structural shock, be it technology or monetary policy oriented, give points to the neutrality of the monetary entity decisions, therefore confirming the well-known classical dichotomy existing between the nominal and the real factors of the economy.

  1. Immigrant earnings: Language skills, linguistic concentrations and the business cycle

    OpenAIRE

    Paul W. Miller; Chiswick, Barry R.

    2002-01-01

    This study of the determinants of earnings among adult foreign-born men using the 1990 Census of Population focuses on the effects of the respondent's own English language skills, the effects of living in a linguistic concentration area, and the effects of the stage of the business cycle at entry into the U.S. labor market. The analysis demonstrates the importance of English language fluency among the foreign born from non-English speaking countries. There is also strong evidence for the comp...

  2. The International Finance Multiplier in Business Cycle Fluctuations

    OpenAIRE

    Naohisa Hirakata; Takushi Kurozumi

    2013-01-01

    In the wake of the gGreat Recessionh of 2007-09, recent studies have emphasized the importance of the ginternational finance multiplier (IFM)h mechanism for inter- national business cycles, using calibrated two-country models. This paper develops and estimates a two- country model with the IFM mechanism using 21 time series from the Euro Area (EA) and the US. The estimation results show that during the past quarter-century, EA shocks to the external finance premium and net worth not only had ...

  3. Codimension-2 bifurcations of the Kaldor model of business cycle

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Research highlights: → The conditions are given such that the characteristic equation may have purely imaginary roots and double zero roots. → Purely imaginary roots lead us to study Hopf and Bautin bifurcations and to calculate the first and second Lyapunov coefficients. → Double zero roots lead us to study Bogdanov-Takens (BT) bifurcation. → Bifurcation diagrams for Bautin and BT bifurcations are obtained by using the normal form theory. - Abstract: In this paper, complete analysis is presented to study codimension-2 bifurcations for the nonlinear Kaldor model of business cycle. Sufficient conditions are given for the model to demonstrate Bautin and Bogdanov-Takens (BT) bifurcations. By computing the first and second Lyapunov coefficients and performing nonlinear transformation, the normal forms are derived to obtain the bifurcation diagrams such as Hopf, homoclinic and double limit cycle bifurcations. Some examples are given to confirm the theoretical results.

  4. Business cycles and workplace accidents in Iceland 1986- 2011

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tinna Laufey Ásgeirsdóttir

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available This study is the first to explore the association between business cycles and workplace accidents using Icelandic data. The relationship is evaluated for the entire labor market, for specific sectors, by gender and by the severity of injuries. Most prior research has found workplace accidents to be pro-cyclical. Hypothesized reasons include increased labor supply and greater work intensity in upswings, and that accidents are more likely to be reported. Aggregate data for workplace accidents from the Administration of Occupational Safety and Health and several macroeconomic indicators from Statistics Iceland and Directorate of Labour were examined. The time series were non-stationary so first differences were used to detrend them. Their relationship was then examined using a linear regression model. Data from the Directorate of Health in Iceland and Statistics Iceland were used to calculate the relative risk of an accident. Pro-cyclical associations between business cycles and work-place accidents were observed, particularly in construction, in commerce and for men. The results of the relative-risk calculations indicated that workers were at considerably greater risk of having an accident in 2007 than in 2004-2006 and 2008-2011. By comparing the different estimations of the study, one can conclude that only a small part of the variability of risk can be explained by changes in labour supply. Increased risk at work, given the labor supply, seems to be a more significant reason for increased prevalence of accidents during periods of economic expansion.

  5. Using complex networks to characterize international business cycles.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Petre Caraiani

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: There is a rapidly expanding literature on the application of complex networks in economics that focused mostly on stock markets. In this paper, we discuss an application of complex networks to study international business cycles. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We construct complex networks based on GDP data from two data sets on G7 and OECD economies. Besides the well-known correlation-based networks, we also use a specific tool for presenting causality in economics, the Granger causality. We consider different filtering methods to derive the stationary component of the GDP series for each of the countries in the samples. The networks were found to be sensitive to the detrending method. While the correlation networks provide information on comovement between the national economies, the Granger causality networks can better predict fluctuations in countries' GDP. By using them, we can obtain directed networks allows us to determine the relative influence of different countries on the global economy network. The US appears as the key player for both the G7 and OECD samples. CONCLUSION: The use of complex networks is valuable for understanding the business cycle comovements at an international level.

  6. The Convergence of European Business Cycles 1980-2004

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The degree of convergence of the business cycles of the economies of the European Union is a key policy issue. In particular, a substantial degree of convergence is needed if the European Central Bank is to be capable of setting a monetary policy which is appropriate to the stage of the cycle of the Euro zone economies. I consider the annual rates of real GDP growth on a quarterly basis in the main economies of the EU (France, Germany, Italy, UK, Spain, Belgium and the Netherlands) over the period 1980Q1-2004Q4. An important empirical question is the degree to which the correlations between these growth rates contain true information rather than noise. The technique of random matrix theory is able to answer this question, and has been applied successfully in the physics journals to financial markets data. I find that the correlations between the growth rates of most of the core EU economies contain substantial amounts of true information, and exhibit considerable stability over time. Even in the late 1970s and early 1980s, these economies moved together closely over the course of the business cycle. There was a slight loosening at the time of German re-unification, but the economies have moved back into close synchronisation. The same result holds when Spain is added to the group of core EU countries. However, the problems of the German economy which arose from the early 1990s onwards has led to Germany becoming increasingly less synchronised with the rest of the core EU. Further, the results obtained with a data set of the converged EU core plus the UK show no real convergence between the UK and this group of economies. (author)

  7. Milan’s Cycle as an Accurate Leading Indicator for the Italian Business Cycle

    OpenAIRE

    Matteo Pelagatti; Valeria Negri

    2008-01-01

    A coincident business cycle indicator for the Milan area is built on the basis of a monthly industrial survey carried out by Assolombarda, the largest territorial entrepreneurial association in Italy. The indicator is extracted from three time series concerning the production level and the internal and foreign order book as declared by some 250 Assolombarda associates. This indicator is potentially very valuable in itself, being Milan one of the most dynamic economic systems in Italy and Euro...

  8. Business cycle model on the basis of “systems potential” method.

    OpenAIRE

    Grigorii Pushnoi

    2005-01-01

    The new business cycle three-dimensional model is formulated on the basis of new system approach known as the System Potential Method. Cyclical dynamics with catastrophe jumps (alike to Varian' model) and some stochastic properties is described. Properties of such cycles are similar to the properties of the typical business cycle.

  9. Are there two types of business cycles? a note on crisis detection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert Pater

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Business cycles are highly irregular fluctuations in economic activity. This article attempts to determine whether there are some properties of business cycles that can make them look more regular. This is done by analysing business cycle dynamics, especially by employing and adjusting to contemporary business cycle analysis the theories of growth cycles and classical cycles. The non-homogeneity of business cycles is surveyed in theory and practice with use of ad hoc filtering, spectral analysis and unobserved components models. With their use business cycles are extracted. Several macroeconomic indicators for 32 economies are analysed to draw up additional characteristics of contemporary business cycles. The author proposes that fluctuations in economic activity lasting 8-19 quarters should be called ‘growth cycles’ and those lasting 20-40 quarters – ‘classical cycles’. The value added of this article is the consideration of the two different type of cycles in light of the same methods of extraction, while to date they have been thought of as the ones that can be analysed with use of different methods of extraction. Another innovation is comparison of the cyclicality of different macroeconomic indicators from the point of view of the two types of cycles, while to date they have been analysed in the light of a single business cycle. In the article it is shown that dividing business cycles into such defined classical cycles and growth cycles enables us to understand the differences between the cyclicality of various macroeconomic aggregates and countries. It also enables us to distinguish between smaller downturns and severe recessions. Another conclusion is that the duration of contemporary business cycles around the world closes in a range of 2 to 10 years.

  10. On the Sources of Business Cycles:Implications for DSGE Models

    OpenAIRE

    Andrle, Michal; Brůha, Jan; Solmaz, Serhat

    2016-01-01

    What are the drivers of business cycle fluctuations? And how many are there? By documenting strong and predictable co-movement of real variables during the business cycle in a sample of advanced economies, we argue that most business cycle fluctuations are driven by one major factor. The positive co-movement of real output and inflation convincingly argues for a demand story. This feature—robust across time and space—provides a simple smell test for structural macroeconomic models. We propose...

  11. Is Theory Really Ahead of Measurement? Current Real Business Cycle Theories and Aggregate Labor Market Fluctuations

    OpenAIRE

    Lawrence J. Christiano; Martin Eichenbaum

    1988-01-01

    In the l93Os, Dunlop and Tarshis observed that the correlation between hours and wages is close to zero. This classic observation has become a litmus test by which macroeconomic models are judged. Existing real business cycle models fail this test dramatically. Based on this result, we argue that technology shocks cannot be the sole impulse driving post-war U.S. business cycles. We modify prototypical real business cycle models by allowing government spending shocks to influence labor market ...

  12. Business Cycle Synchronization Between Australia and New Zealand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jie Wei

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available There has been a high degree of economic and financial integration between Australia and New Zealand with free trade agreements linking the capital and labor markets. Given a strong economic relationship, business-cycle transmission is expected to exist between the two countries. By analyzing the shock-transmission channels via trade, monetary policy, and exchange rates between Australia and New Zealand we can infer that if Australia and New Zealand trade less, have more similar monetary policy structure, or have less similar economic structures they would have stronger economy correlation. The results also show that the highly integrated banking system between Australia and New Zealand is an additional avenue for shock transmission between both countries.

  13. Political Business Cycle on the Agricultural Supports in Turkey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Burak ONEMLI

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available This study investigates whether there is a political business cycle (PBC on the agricultural supports in the Turkish economy. In this respect, we investigate the policies of different Turkish governments for the agricultural supports measured by the producer support estimates for the period 1986-2011. To this end, first the series for the producer support estimates are filtered by the Hodrick-Prescott filter, and then an econometric model is employed to estimate the effects of a set of explanatory variables including the economic crisis, the opportunistic and the partisan characteristics of the incumbent parties. Our results provide limited support for the opportunistic type PBC. Moreover, it seems that some Turkish governments have created the partisanship type PBCs

  14. Business Cycle and Risk Premium in the Colombian Stock Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrés Mauricio Gómez Sánchez

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available Through the Hodrick-Prescott methodology this paper presents a review about the relationship between the ex post risk premium of the stock market and business cycles observed in Colombia. Through quarterly information from the fourth quarter of 2001 to the third quarter of 2012, statistical evidence shows that the increase and decrease of ex post risk premium follow a countercyclical behavior in tune with existing research conducted about the United States and emerging economies, although with non-contemporary relationships with private consumption. In addition, it is found that in the last decade the Colombian risk premium follows a process of Auto Regressive Moving Average Models (ARMA, showing that there is no variation in at least two consecutive quarters and whose behavior is generated in part by external events at the domestic economic activity level experienced in near past periods.

  15. Cycle e-business: the e-business of Gaz De France; Cycle e-business: l'e-business de Gaz de France

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2001-07-01

    This paper deals with the Gaz De France Group position in the e-business context. In terms of e-business, all is done to put Internet at the marketing service. Three examples of Internet sites realization and the future policy are presented. (A.L.B.)

  16. Are international business cycles different under fixed and flexible exchange rate regimes?

    OpenAIRE

    Michael A. Kouparitsas

    1998-01-01

    A major concern surrounding European Monetary Union is that output fluctuations of member countries may become more volatile under a common currency because they will have increased sensitivity to foreign business cycles. This article analyzes the link between exchange rate regimes and the behavior of international business cycles.

  17. A Simple Model to Teach Business Cycle Macroeconomics for Emerging Market and Developing Economies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duncan, Roberto

    2015-01-01

    The canonical neoclassical model is insufficient to understand business cycle fluctuations in emerging market and developing economies. The author reformulates the model proposed by Aguiar and Gopinath (2007) in a simple setting that can be used to teach business cycle macroeconomics for emerging market and developing economies at the…

  18. Integrated Application of the Target Co-sting and Life Cycle Costing in Contemporary Business Environment

    OpenAIRE

    Perčević, Hrvoje; Mirjana HLADIKA; Mićin, Marina

    2015-01-01

    Contemporary business environment is characterized by frequent changes in business conditions. Technological innovations and changes in customers’ perception affect on the continuous improvement in quality, availability and functionality of the product. According to this, product life cycle is significantly reduced over time, so business entities are trying to deal with these changes. Due to this, business entities have to produce new products in very short time, but at ...

  19. Exercise, physical activity, and exertion over the business cycle.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colman, Gregory; Dave, Dhaval

    2013-09-01

    Shifts in time and income constraints over economic expansions and contractions would be expected to affect individuals' behaviors. We explore the impact of the business cycle on individuals' exercise, time use, and total physical exertion, utilizing information on 112,000 individual records from the 2003-2010 American Time Use Surveys. In doing so, we test a key causal link that has been hypothesized in the relation between unemployment and health, but not heretofore assessed. Using more precise measures of exercise (and other activities) than previous studies, we find that as work-time decreases during a recession, recreational exercise, TV-watching, sleeping, childcare, and housework increase. This, however, does not compensate for the decrease in work-related exertion due to job-loss, and total physical exertion declines. These effects are strongest among low-educated men, which is validating given that employment in the Great Recession has declined most within manufacturing, mining, and construction. We also find evidence of intra-household spillover effects, wherein individuals respond to shifts in spousal employment conditional on their own labor supply. The decrease in total physical activity during recessions is especially problematic for vulnerable populations concentrated in boom-and-bust industries, and may have longer-term effects on obesity and related health outcomes. PMID:23906116

  20. Business cycles and the financial performance of fuel cell companies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fuel cells are expected to play a major role in a hydrogen powered world. They will provide power to homes, modes of transportation and appliances. Hydrogen is the most abundant element in nature, but it must be extracted in order to be usable. It can be produced from oil, natural gas and coal or from renewable sources such as biomass, thermal or nuclear reactions. Fuel cells running on hydrogen extracted from non renewable resources have an efficiency of 30 per cent, which is twice as efficient as an internal combustion engine. The greatest barrier to mass commercialization is the cost of making hydrogen-powered auto engines. Also, an infrastructure must be developed to refill hydrogen cars. One solution is to build a hydrogen highway using the existing natural gas grid to produce hydrogen and sell it at existing filling stations. The cost of building 12,000 refueling pumps in urban areas which will provide access to 70 per cent of America's population is estimated at $10 to $15 billion. This paper described the vector autoregression (VAR) model which empirically examines the relationship between financial performance of fuel cell companies and business cycles. It was used to measure how sensitive the financial performance of fuel cell companies are to changes in macroeconomic activity. A four variable VAR model was developed to examine the relationship between stock prices, oil prices and interest rates. It was shown that the stock prices of fuel cell companies are affected by shocks to technology stock prices and oil prices, with the former having a longer lasting impact. These results add to the growing literature that oil price movements are not as important as once thought. 15 refs., 3 tabs., 3 figs

  1. Oil prices and the U.S. business cycle

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The recent surge in oil prices rakes up old fears and the spectre of stagflation hangs over worldwide economic growth's forecasts. After 30 years of research however analysts still disagree about the influence of oil prices on macro-economic variations and the estimations of the consequences of a costlier barrel differ. As to the United States for example, elasticities between real GDP and oil price form a wide spectrum stretching from a value close to -1% to -11,6%. In this context, we try to identify the potential sources of instability in the oil price-macro-economy relationship in order to explain the width of this range. First we draw attention to the distinction between the effects of an upward disequilibrium and of an upturn in the equilibrium in the oil price series. This distinction lets us share the range of published results in two parts: the elasticities of real American GDP with respect to an upward imbalance and with respect to a rise in the equilibrium price would lie approximately in the ranges extending, respectively, from -1% to -5,5% and from -5% to -11,6%. We direct our work towards the analysis of the consequences of short-run variations in the oil prices on the U.S. business cycle. We identify a set of influences which condition the vulnerability of an economy and then construct an econometric sectoral and non-linear model inspired from Marshall's theory. The simulations conducted let us explain the long-run weakening in the oil price-macro-economy relationship and highlight the prominent part played by imported inflation and monetary policy in the crisis of the 70's and 80's. According to the values of the structural factors in the model and to the shape of the oil price short-run disequilibrium, the elasticities evaluated cover the whole range of published elasticities. (author)

  2. Life Cycle-Based Generic Business Strategies for Sustainable Business Models

    OpenAIRE

    Yoon-Young Chun; Kun-Mo Lee

    2013-01-01

    The need to transition to a more sustainable economy is one of the most significant challenges society has ever faced. Despite the evidence that adopting a more sustainable business model is linked to more stable profits, many conventional manufacturers do not know where to begin. This study aims to identify generic business strategies that conventional manufacturers can use to improve their business models and thus be more sustainable and/or develop new sustainable business models. In order ...

  3. International business cycle synchronization since the 1870s: Evidence from a novel network approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Antonakakis, Nikolaos; Gogas, Periklis; Papadimitriou, Theophilos; Sarantitis, Georgios Antonios

    2016-04-01

    In this study, we examine the issue of business cycle synchronization from a historical perspective in 27 developed and developing countries. Based on a novel complex network approach, the Threshold-Minimum Dominating Set (T-MDS), our results reveal heterogeneous patterns of international business cycle synchronization during fundamental globalization periods since the 1870s. In particular, the proposed methodology reveals that worldwide business cycles de-coupled during the Gold Standard, though they were synchronized during the Great Depression. The Bretton Woods era was associated with a lower degree of synchronization as compared to that during the Great Depression, while worldwide business cycle synchronization increased to unprecedented levels during the latest period of floating exchange rates and the Great Recession.

  4. Risk and capital adjustment over the business cycle: Evidence from Indian banks

    OpenAIRE

    Ghosh, Saibal

    2008-01-01

    Employing data on Indian banks for 1997-2006, we test the behavior of capital buffers over the business cycle. The evidence indicates that capital buffers exhibit pro-cyclical behavior, although the implied effects are small.

  5. The impact of the global financial crisis on business cycles in Asian emerging economies

    OpenAIRE

    Fidrmuc, Jarko; Korhonen, Iikka

    2009-01-01

    We analyze the transmission of global financial crisis to business cycles in China and India. The pattern of business cycles in emerging Asian economies generally displays a low degree of synchronization with the OECD countries, which is consistent with the decoupling hypothesis. By contrast, however, the current financial crisis has had a significant effect on economic developments in emerging Asian economies. Applying dynamic correlations, we find wide differences for different frequencies ...

  6. Business Cycle Accounting: Bulgaria after the introduction of the currency board arrangement (1999-2014)

    OpenAIRE

    Vasilev, Aleksandar

    2016-01-01

    This paper focuses on explaining the economic fluctuations in Bulgaria after the introduction of the currency board arrangement in 1997, the period of macroeconomic stability that ensued, the EU accession, and the episode of the recent global financial crisis. This paper follows Chari et al. (2002) and performs business cycle accounting (BCA) for Bulgaria during the period 1999-2014. As in Cavalcanti (2007), who studies the Portuguese business cycles, most of the volatility in output per capi...

  7. Evaluation of Uncertainty on the Stages of Business Cycle: Implementation of Quantum Principles

    OpenAIRE

    Anna Svirina; Elena Parfenova; Elena Shurkina

    2014-01-01

    The goal of the research is to propose implementation of quantum principles for evaluation of economic development on stages of business cycle, define the difference between traditional (deterministic) and quantum approaches and to provide quantitative analysis based argumentation for use of quantum economic principles in evaluation of internal and external factors on the stages of business cycle. The object of the study is possibility and reliability of quantum economic principles implementa...

  8. The Contribution of Economic Indicator Analysis to Understanding and Forecasting Business Cycles

    OpenAIRE

    Ernst A. Boehm

    2001-01-01

    This paper reviews major features of the development of economic indicator analysis (EIA), notably its contribution to identifying, understanding, explaining and forecasting business cycles. The paper highlights the substantial pioneering role of Dr Geoffrey H. Moore in this development. The paper reviews some key issues regarding the selection and classification of economic indicators; and the methodologies developed to use these indicators to identify and measure business cycles on national...

  9. Computing Markov-perfect optimal policies in business-cycle models

    OpenAIRE

    Dennis, Richard; Kirsanova, Tatiana

    2015-01-01

    Time inconsistency is an essential feature of many policy problems. This paper presents and compares three methods for computing Markov-perfect optimal policies in stochastic nonlinear business cycle models. The methods considered include value function iteration, generalized Euler equations, and parameterized shadow prices. In the context of a business cycle model in which a fiscal authority chooses government spending and income taxation optimally, although lacking the ability to commit, we...

  10. A Repayment Model of House Prices Oil Price Dynamics in a Real Business Cycle Model

    OpenAIRE

    Vipin Arora; Pedro Gomis-Porqueras

    2011-01-01

    We show the importance of endogenous oil prices and production in the real business cycle framework. Endogenising these variables improves the model's predictions of business cycle statistics, oil related and non-oil related, relative to a situation where either is exogenous. This result is robust to the standard extensions (variable capacity utilisation and monopolistic competition) used in the literature. In particular, we first show that with either exogenous oil prices or production the s...

  11. Business Cycle Properties of Selected U.S. Economic Time Series, 1959-1988

    OpenAIRE

    James H. Stock; Mark W. Watson

    1990-01-01

    This paper catalogs the business cycle properties of 163 monthly U.S. economic time series over the three decades from 1959 through 1988. Two general sets of summary statistics are reported. The first set measures the comovement of each individual time series with a reference series representing real economic activity. These statistics focus on comovements at business cycle horizons. The second set of statistics examines the predictive content of each of the series for aggregate activity, rel...

  12. Trade flows as a channel for the transmission of business cycles

    OpenAIRE

    Berk, J.M.

    1997-01-01

    The interdependence between business cycles of different countries has grown in recent decades. Many factors act as conductors of cyclical fluctuations between countries. In this context, the influence of trade flows in the global transmission of business cycles is examined. The author aims to identify empirically the line of causality of international cyclical movements as suggested by trade flows, presenting an estimate of the quantitive importance of trade flows as transmission channel.

  13. An Analysis Of Political Business Cycle Theory and its Relationship with the New Political Macroeconomics

    OpenAIRE

    Dean Garratt

    1998-01-01

    The paper analyses the four principal model types that comprise the political business cycle literature. It then considers how this literature complements the ‘new political macroeconomics’ in analysing the impact of politics on inflation. Political business cycle models can be classified according to the political motivations of opportunism and ideology as well as by the way in which individuals form expectations. Using this classifications we pay particular attention to the underlying assum...

  14. Regional business cycles in New Zealand:Do they exist? What might drive them?

    OpenAIRE

    Viv B Hall; John, McDermott C.

    2005-01-01

    We use National Bank of New Zealand Regional Economic Activity data, to identify and characterise classical business cycle turning points, for New Zealand’s 14 regions and aggregate New Zealand activity. Using Concordance statistic measures, logistic model and GMM estimation methods, meaningful regional business cycles have been identified and a number of significant associations established. All regions exhibit cyclical asymmetry for both durations and amplitudes, and synchronisations betwee...

  15. The Cross-Sectional Dynamics of German Business Cycles: A Bird´s Eye View

    OpenAIRE

    Döpke, Jörg; Funke, Michael; Holly, Sean; Weber, Sebastian

    2005-01-01

    We establish some stylised facts for Germany's business cycle at the level of the firm. Based on longitudinal firm-level data from the Bundesbank's balance sheet statistic covering, on average, 55,000 firms per year from 1971 to 1998, we analyse the reallocation across individual producers and, in turn, the connection of this reallocation to aggregate business cycles. The empirical results indicate a pronounced heterogeneity of real sale changes across firms. Moreover, the distribution of gro...

  16. Forecasting macro variables with a Qual VAR business cycle turning point index

    OpenAIRE

    Dueker, Michael J.; Katrin Wesche

    2005-01-01

    One criticism of VAR forecasting is that macroeconomic variables tend not to behave as linear functions of their own past around business cycle turning points. This article investigates the methods and efficacy of forecasting with a VAR that expands the information set to include dynamic forecasts of a qualititative variable - business cycle turning points. We apply this Qual VAR model to five of the G7 economies and find that the Qual VAR improves on forecasts from standard models, both for ...

  17. Dynamics of Business Cycles in Vietnam: A comparison with Indonesia and Philippines

    OpenAIRE

    Le, Ha

    2014-01-01

    Abstract: The objective of this paper is to analyze the dynamics of business cycle features and investigate the main source of macroeconomic fluctuations in Vietnam, and then make comparison to Indonesia and the Philippines. In the first task, the business cycle features are evaluated by properties of data, including volatility, persistence and co-movement after taking Hodrick-Prescott (HP) filter in 2 periods: before and after the global financial crisis in 2008. Results indicate that these ...

  18. Analysis of stochastic effects in Kaldor-type business cycle discrete model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bashkirtseva, Irina; Ryashko, Lev; Sysolyatina, Anna

    2016-07-01

    We study nonlinear stochastic phenomena in the discrete Kaldor model of business cycles. A numerical parametric analysis of stochastically forced attractors (equilibria, closed invariant curves, discrete cycles) of this model is performed using the stochastic sensitivity functions technique. A spatial arrangement of random states in stochastic attractors is modeled by confidence domains. The phenomenon of noise-induced transitions "chaos-order" is discussed.

  19. A Contribution to the Austrian Business Cycle Theory: Uncertainty and Price Expectations

    OpenAIRE

    Frömmel, Tomáš

    2016-01-01

    Common critique of the Austrian business cycle theory states that the Austrian cycle could not be initiated under the rational expectations hypothesis. This thesis therefore investigates the role of price expectations of entrepreneurs in the Austrian cycle theory. We conclude that this theory might be compatible with rational expectations only under several assumptions. The rational expectations hypothesis is, however, evaluated rather critically concluding it is quite strong and unrealistic ...

  20. Relationship finance, market finance and endogenous business cycles

    OpenAIRE

    Deidda, Luca Gabriele; Fattouh, Bassam

    2010-01-01

    This paper develops an overlapping generation model with asymmetric information in the credit market such that the interplay between relationship finance supplied by investors who monitor investment decisions ex-ante and market finance supplied by investors who relay on public information can be the source of endogenous business fluctuations. Monitoring helps reducing the inefficiency caused by moral hazard. However, the incentives of entrepreneurs to demand relationship finance to induce mon...

  1. Innovation budgeting over the business cycle and innovation performance

    OpenAIRE

    Hud, Martin; Rammer, Christian

    2015-01-01

    The global economic crisis of 2008/2009 hit many firms hard. Faced with rapidly declining sales and highly uncertain economic prospects, firms had to cut costs and reconsider their business strategies. With respect to innovation, cost cutting often means to stop or underresource innovation projects which may harm a firm’s long-term competitiveness. Firms may therefore refrain from reducing innovation budgets during crises but rather deliberately allocate more resources to innov...

  2. Do Institutions and Culture Matter for Business Cycles?

    OpenAIRE

    Altug, Sumru; Canova, Fabio

    2012-01-01

    We examine the relationship between macroeconomic, institutional, and cultural indicators and cyclical fluctuations for European, Middle Eastern and North African Mediterranean countries. Mediterranean cycles are different from EU cycles: the duration of expansions is shorter; the amplitude and the output costs of recessions are larger; and cyclical synchronization is smaller. Differences in macroeconomic and institutional indicators partly account for the relative differences in cyclical syn...

  3. Accounting Spanish business cycles: What can be learned from past recessions?

    OpenAIRE

    Jesús Rodríguez López; Mario Solís-García

    2012-01-01

    We apply the business cycle methodology proposed by Chari, Kehoe, and McGrattan (2007) to identify the sources of Spanish business fluctuations during two outstanding cyclical episodes: the recession alongside the inception of democracy on 1977, and the recession of 2008. We find that the labor wedge is the key element behind these fluctuations, and that both taxes and labor market institutions are likely behind the wedge movements. Our conclusion suggests that any model that tries to underst...

  4. The Link Between Firms? Innovation Decision and the Business Cycle: An Empirical Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Heger, Diana

    2004-01-01

    The sensitivity of innovation activities with respect to the business cycle is often assumed to be small. In this paper the hypothesis on cyclical dependence of innovation activities is tested for firms in the German manufacturing, and additionally for SMEs. To this end firms' innovation decisions are considered. The decision to innovate in one period is modelled via a first-order Markov chain approach. The results suggest that the patterns in innovative behavior are linked to the business cy...

  5. Welfare Cost of Business Cycles with Idiosyncratic Consumption Risk and a Preference for Robustness

    OpenAIRE

    Martin Ellison; Sargent, Thomas J.

    2015-01-01

    The welfare cost of random consumption fluctuations is known from De Santis (2007) to be increasing in the level of uninsured idiosyncratic consumption risk. It is known from Barillas, Hansen, and Sargent (2009) to increase if agents care about robustness to model misspecification. We calculate the cost of business cycles in an economy where agents face idiosyncratic consumption risk and fear model misspecification, finding that idiosyncratic risk has a greater impact on the cost of business ...

  6. Economic intermittency in a two-country model of business cycles coupled by investment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Highlights: → Intermittent economic behavior of Keynes-Goodwin type model is investigated. → After a transition the system keeps its memory before the transition. → The intermittent phenomena is examined from the business cycle patterns. → It is concluded that dynamical patterns do not alter much around the transition. - Abstract: Intermittent behavior of economic dynamics is investigated by a two-country model of Keynes-Goodwin type business cycles. Numerical simulations show that after an economic system evolves from weak chaos to strong chaos the system keeps its memory before the transition and its time series alternates episodically between periods of weakly and strongly chaotic fluctuations. In addition, we examine the intermittent phenomena from the view point of business cycle patterns near the crisis point.

  7. Idiosyncratic Uncertainty, Capacity Utilization and the Business Cycle

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fragnart, Jean-Francois; Licandro, Omar; Portier, Franck

    thus hides a diversity of microeconomic situations. The variablity of the capacity utilization allows for a good description of some of the main stylized facts of the busines cycle, propagates and magnifies aggregate technological shocks and generates endogenous persistence (i.e., the output growth...

  8. The role of real and nominal variables in defining business cycles: dynamic properties of a hybrid model - an alternative view

    OpenAIRE

    Themba G. Chirwa

    2009-01-01

    The paper provides an alternative view to the Real and New Keynesian business cycle theories. The paper focuses on the combination of both real and nominal variables in explaining the cyclical movements of business cycles. We propose using Vector Autoregressive (VAR) technique on the production function approach in order to empirically assess the relative importance of both real and nominal variables in defining the shape of a business cycle (or output gap). An economy-specific variable (infl...

  9. Advertising Expenditures Interaction with Business Cycles and Firm Value: An Empirical Analysis with US Companies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Graziela Fortunato

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available This study aims to verify the contribution of advertising expendituresto firm value. To reach this goal, we considered business cycles, which follow a stochastic process and may influence the decision as to the amount to be spent in advertising. With the optimization of these expenditures under the business cycle effect, it is, in fact, possible to analyze whether the results positively contribute to firm value. Data from US companies of the consumer staples sector from 1997 to 2008 were employed to test the proposed model through multiple regression and panel data. The results indicate favorable evidences which confirm the proposed model.

  10. LIFE CYCLE ASSESSMENT (LCA AS A TOOL FOR BUSINESS STRATEGY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rodrigo Salvador

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available The growing concern about the development of sustainable production systems leads organizations to seek the support of management tools for decision-making. Considering the whole life cycle of the product, the Life Cycle Assessment (LCA has an important role in this scenario. The objective of this paper is to present, through the theoretical discussion, the role of LCA in strategic planning of the organization. It showed the enormous potential for decision making on the environmental aspect, but also the critical factor in the development shares in the competitive context. The use of LCA can reduce the environmental impacts of the system under study (primary purpose and guide the range of advantages in the fields of marketing, legislation and environmental labeling, competitive strategies, efficiency use of resources and others.

  11. The US business cycle: power law scaling for interacting units with complex internal structure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ormerod, Paul

    2002-11-01

    In the social sciences, there is increasing evidence of the existence of power law distributions. The distribution of recessions in capitalist economies has recently been shown to follow such a distribution. The preferred explanation for this is self-organised criticality. Gene Stanley and colleagues propose an alternative, namely that power law scaling can arise from the interplay between random multiplicative growth and the complex structure of the units composing the system. This paper offers a parsimonious model of the US business cycle based on similar principles. The business cycle, along with long-term growth, is one of the two features which distinguishes capitalism from all previously existing societies. Yet, economics lacks a satisfactory theory of the cycle. The source of cycles is posited in economic theory to be a series of random shocks which are external to the system. In this model, the cycle is an internal feature of the system, arising from the level of industrial concentration of the agents and the interactions between them. The model-in contrast to existing economic theories of the cycle-accounts for the key features of output growth in the US business cycle in the 20th century.

  12. International and Domestic Business Cycles as Dynamics of a Network of Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ikeda, Yuichi; Iyetomi, Hiroshi; Aoyama, Hideaki; Yoshikawa, Hiroshi

    2014-03-01

    Synchronization in business cycles has attracted economists and physicists as self-organization in the time domain. From a different point of view, international and domestic business cycles are also interesting as dynamics of a network of networks or a multi-level network. In this paper, we analyze the Indices of Industrial Production monthly time-series in Japan from January 1988 to December 2007 to develop a deeper understanding of domestic business cycles. The frequency entrainment and the partial phase locking were observed for the 16 sectors to be direct evidence of synchronization. We also showed that the information of the economic shock is carried by the phase time-series. The common shock and individual shocks are separated using phase time-series. The former dominates the economic recession in all of 1992, 1998 and 2001. In addition to the above analysis, we analyze the quarterly GDP time series for Australia, Canada, France, Italy, the United Kingdom, and the United States from Q2 1960 to Q1 2010 in order to clarify its origin. We find frequency entrainment and partial phase locking. Furthermore, a coupled limit-cycle oscillator model is developed to explain the mechanism of synchronization. In this model, the interaction due to international trade is interpreted as the origin of the synchronization. The obtained results suggest that the business cycle may be described as a dynamics of the multi-level coupled oscillators exposed to random individual shocks.

  13. A fourth order spline collocation approach for a business cycle model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sayfy, A.; Khoury, S.; Ibdah, H.

    2013-10-01

    A collocation approach, based on a fourth order cubic B-splines is presented for the numerical solution of a Kaleckian business cycle model formulated by a nonlinear delay differential equation. The equation is approximated and the nonlinearity is handled by employing an iterative scheme arising from Newton's method. It is shown that the model exhibits a conditionally dynamical stable cycle. The fourth-order rate of convergence of the scheme is verified numerically for different special cases.

  14. The insurance business and the nuclear fuel cycle

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The legally required financial security is provided by the insurance business by way of liability insurance systems. Insurance coverage is given for the obligation to pay damages in compliance with section 13 Atomic Energy Act, which refers to all objects of legal protection also defined in section 823, sub-sec. (1) BGB. The legal provisions valid in the F.R.G. are very similar to the provisions in most western countries. They comply with the Paris Convention which determines the legal bases of the international third party liability system which have been supplemented by the Brussels Convention. The reactor accident at Chernobyl has induced discussions and changes in the insurance sector. A major conclusion was that liability criteria must have unambiguous definition and delimitation. A compensation system is feasible only on the basis of clear-cut definitions. A first step in this direction has been done by issuing maximum permissible limits for foodstuffs. Another major instrument for coping with a nuclear accident is the distribution scheme defined in section 35 Atomic Energy Act. (orig./HSCH)

  15. Evaluation of Uncertainty on the Stages of Business Cycle: Implementation of Quantum Principles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna Svirina

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available The goal of the research is to propose implementation of quantum principles for evaluation of economic development on stages of business cycle, define the difference between traditional (deterministic and quantum approaches and to provide quantitative analysis based argumentation for use of quantum economic principles in evaluation of internal and external factors on the stages of business cycle. The object of the study is possibility and reliability of quantum economic principles implementation to evaluate economic system performance. The authors analyze existing approaches towards implementation of deterministic, probabilistic and quantum models for estimating internal and external factors on stages of business cycle, define the benchmark for shift from traditional economy models and principles to quantum principles, describe the stages of business cycle from the quantum economics point of view and provide quantitative analysis of deterministic and quantum models quality on the level of enterprise to prove efficiency and reliability of quantum principles based approach. Calculations and data processing were carried out using Microsoft Excel and SSPS Statistics software.

  16. Money velocity in an endogenous growth business cycle with credit shocks

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Benk, S.; Gillman, M.; Kejak, Michal

    -, 2007/5 (2007), s. 1-17. ISSN 1585-5600 R&D Projects: GA MŠk LC542 Institutional research plan: CEZ:MSM0021620846 Keywords : money velocity * business cycle * credit shocks Subject RIV: AH - Economics http://www.mnb.hu/Root/Dokumentumtar/MNB/Kiadvanyok/mnbhu_mnbfuzetek/WP_2007_5.pdf

  17. Money velocity in an endogenous growth business cycle with credit shocks

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Benk, S.; Gillman, M.; Kejak, Michal

    2008-01-01

    Roč. 40, č. 6 (2008), s. 1281-1293. ISSN 0022-2879 R&D Projects: GA MŠk LC542 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z70850503 Keywords : money velocity * business cycle * credit shocks Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 1.422, year: 2008

  18. Effectively Serving the Needs of Today's Business Student: The Product Life Cycle Approach to Class Organization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eastman, Jacqueline K.; Aviles, Maria; Hanna, Mark

    2012-01-01

    We illustrate a class organization process utilizing the concept of the Product Life Cycle to meet the needs of today's millennial student. In the Introduction stage of a business course, professors need to build structure to encourage commitment. In the Growth stage, professors need to promote the structure through multiple, brief activities that…

  19. How Business Cycles Affect the Healthcare Sector: A Cross-country Investigation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cleeren, Kathleen; Lamey, Lien; Meyer, Jan-Hinrich; De Ruyter, Ko

    2016-07-01

    The long-term relationship between the general economy and healthcare expenditures has been extensively researched, to explain differences in healthcare spending between countries, but the midterm (i.e., business cycle) perspective has been overlooked. This study explores business cycle sensitivity in both public and private parts of the healthcare sector across 32 countries. Responses to the business cycle vary notably, both across spending sources and across countries. Whereas in some countries, consumers and/or governments cut back, in others, private and/or public healthcare buyers tend to spend more. We also assess long-term consequences of business cycle sensitivity and show that public cost cutting during economic downturns deflates the mortality rates, whereas private cut backs increase the long-term growth in total healthcare expenditures. Finally, multiple factors help explain variability in cyclical sensitivity. Private cost cuts during economic downturns are smaller in countries with a predominantly publicly funded healthcare system and more preventive public activities. Public cut backs during contractions are smaller in countries that rely more on tax-based resources rather than social health insurances. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. PMID:25916435

  20. The role of national culture in advertising's sensitivity to business cycles : An investigation across continents

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Deleersnyder, B.; DeKimpe, M.; Steenkamp, J.E.M.; Leeflang, P.S.H.

    2009-01-01

    The authors conduct a systematic investigation into the cyclical sensitivity of advertising expenditures in 37 countries, covering four key media: magazines, newspapers, radio, and television. They show that advertising is considerably more sensitive to business-cycle fluctuations than the economy a

  1. Money velocity in an endogenous growth business cycle with credit shocks

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Benk, S.; Gillman, M.; Kejak, Michal

    -, CDMC06/04 (2006), s. 1-39 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z70850503 Keywords : money velocity * business cycle * endogenous growth Subject RIV: AH - Economics http://www.st- and rews.ac.uk/ economics /CDMA/papers/cp0604.pdf

  2. Money velocity in an endogenous growth business cycle with credit shocks

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Benk, S.; Gillman, M.; Kejak, Michal

    -, E2007/14 (2007), s. 1-16. ISSN 1749-6101 Institutional research plan: CEZ:MSM0021620846 Keywords : money velocity * business cycle * credit shocks Subject RIV: AH - Economics http://www.cf.ac.uk/carbs/econ/workingpapers/papers/E2007_14.pdf

  3. STYLIZED FACTS OF ROMANIAN BUSINESS CYCLE. AN EMPIRICAL INVESTIGATION (II

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mester Ioana

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available If the more or less regulate moves of the macroeconomic variables are accepted by the economists as a reality, the problem of measuring the aggregate level of the economy in direct correlation with these fluctuations is much more difficult due to the numerous variables involved. The way these variables move in time is very different from a period to another as well as from a country to another. While some variables have already reached their maximum level, others are on their descendent slope. This is the reason why the measurement problem of the aggregate level of the macroeconomic activity deserves our attention. Finding the patterns macroeconomic variables move together and influence each other is important both as a theoretical challenge, but for its practical utility as well. Depending on the result of the measurement process, the authorities are able to conduct their economic policies. More precisely, the monetary or fiscal authority will act differently if the economy is in recession or in expansion. These are the reasons for which a very important phase in the study of the cycle is its descriptive analysis, which is realized by focusing on certain aspects, such as: the length and magnitude, the correlation of the economic variables with the reference series, the study of the cyclical indicators, the analysis of the relative variability of economic series, the diagnose and prevision based on the cyclical indicators.

  4. Out-of-sample Performance of Leading Indicators for the German Business Cycle: Single vs. Combined Forecasts

    OpenAIRE

    Christian Dreger; Christian Schumacher

    2005-01-01

    In this paper the forecasting performance of popular leading indicators for the German business cycle is investigated. Survey based indicators (ifo business climate, ZEW index of economic sentiment) and composite leading indicators (Handelsblatt, Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, Commerzbank) are considered. The analysis points to a significant relationship of the indicators to the business cycle within the sample period, as measured by the direction of causality. But, their out-of-sample forec...

  5. A novel PPGA-based clustering analysis method for business cycle indicator selection

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Dabin ZHANG; Lean YU; Shouyang WANG; Yingwen SONG

    2009-01-01

    A new clustering analysis method based on the pseudo parallel genetic algorithm (PPGA) is proposed for business cycle indicator selection. In the proposed method,the category of each indicator is coded by real numbers,and some illegal chromosomes are repaired by the identi-fication arid restoration of empty class. Two mutation op-erators, namely the discrete random mutation operator andthe optimal direction mutation operator, are designed to bal-ance the local convergence speed and the global convergence performance, which are then combined with migration strat-egy and insertion strategy. For the purpose of verification and illustration, the proposed method is compared with the K-means clustering algorithm and the standard genetic algo-rithms via a numerical simulation experiment. The experi-mental result shows the feasibility and effectiveness of the new PPGA-based clustering analysis algorithm. Meanwhile,the proposed clustering analysis algorithm is also applied to select the business cycle indicators to examine the status of the macro economy. Empirical results demonstrate that the proposed method can effectively and correctly select some leading indicators, coincident indicators, and lagging indi-cators to reflect the business cycle, which is extremely op-erational for some macro economy administrative managers and business decision-makers.

  6. Production sharing and real business cycles in a small open economy

    OpenAIRE

    Jose Joaquin Lopez

    2007-01-01

    Production sharing and vertical specialization account for a significant share of trade between developed and developing countries. The Mexican maquiladora industry provides an ideal example of production sharing in a small open economy. The typical "maquila" imports most of its inputs from and exports all its output to the United States.> ; This article tries to determine to what extent production sharing, as in the Mexican maquiladora, can serve as a transmission mechanism of business cycle...

  7. Credit spread variability in U.S. business cycles: The Great Moderation versus the Great Recession

    OpenAIRE

    Hylton Hollander and Guangling Liu

    2014-01-01

    This paper establishes the prevailing financial factors that influence credit spread variability, and its impact on the U.S. business cycle over the Great Moderation and Great Recession periods. To do so, we develop a dynamic general equilibrium framework with a central role of financial intermediation and equity assets. Over the Great Moderation and Great Recession periods, we find an important role for bank market power (sticky rate adjustments and loan rate markups) on credit spread variab...

  8. Credit spread variability in U.S. business cycles: the Great Moderation versus the Great Recession

    OpenAIRE

    Hylton Hollander; Guangling (Dave) Liu

    2014-01-01

    This paper establishes the prevailing financial factors that influence credit spread variability, and its impact on the U.S. business cycle over the Great Moderation and Great Recession periods. To do so, we develop a dynamic general equilibrium framework with a central role of financial intermediation and equity assets. Over the Great Moderation and Great Recession periods, we find an important role for bank market power (sticky rate adjustments and loan rate markups) on credit spread variab...

  9. The Life Cycle of Small-firm Networks: An Evaluation of Brazilian Business Networks

    OpenAIRE

    Douglas Wegner; Rejane Maria Alievi; Heron Sérgio Moreira Begnis

    2015-01-01

    Interorganizational agreements and cooperative business networks became an important strategy for companies facing competitive disadvantages. Specially small and medium firms adopted collaborative network models as a way to overcome common problems. Over 1,000 small-firm networks (SFNs) are estimated to have been created in Brazil since the year 2000. This study aimed to propose a SFNs life cycle model, applying it to a sample of twenty-eight SFNs established in two regions of sou...

  10. Applying shape and phase restrictions in generalized dynamic categorical models of the business cycle

    OpenAIRE

    Don Harding

    2010-01-01

    To match the NBER business cycle features it is necessary to employ Gen- eralised dynamic categorical (GDC) models that impose certain phase re- strictions and permit multiple indexes. Theory suggests additional shape re- strictions in the form of monotonicity and boundedness of certain transition probabilities. Maximum likelihood and constraint weighted bootstrap esti- mators are developed to impose these restrictions. In the application these estimators generate improved estimates of how th...

  11. The 2001 recession and the Chicago Fed National Index: identifying business cycle turning points

    OpenAIRE

    Evans, Charles L.; Chin Te Liu; Genevieve Pham-Kanter

    2002-01-01

    The initial release of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) in early 2001 pointed to the very real possibility that the U.S. economy was teetering on the brink of recession. This article quantifies the statistical ability of the CFNAI to act as an early warning indicator of economic recessions. In simulation experiments, the CFNAI performed virtually as well as the statistical model's ideal measure of the business cycle.

  12. Tackling Undeclared Work. Suggestions from a Business Cycle Model with Search Frictions

    OpenAIRE

    Ciccarone Giuseppe; Giuli Francesco; Marchetti Enrico

    2014-01-01

    The paper evaluates the relative effect of deterrence, prevention, curative and commitment policy measures on the size of undeclared work in a real business cycle model with undeclared work, tax evasion and search frictions in the labour market. A numerical application of the model to the European economy shows that all these approaches reduce the undeclared share of output, but that deterrence and commitment policies also produce a negative effect on stationary employment. The curative appro...

  13. The Allocation of Talent over the Business Cycle and its Effect on Sectoral Productivity

    OpenAIRE

    Michael Boehm; Martin Watzinger

    2012-01-01

    It is well documented that graduates enter different occupations in recessions than in booms. In this article, we examine the impact of this reallocation for long-term productivity and output across sectors. We develop a model in which talent flows to stable sectors in recessions and to cyclical sectors in booms. We find evidence for the predicted change in productivity caused by the business cycle in a setting where output can be readily measured: economists starting or graduating from their...

  14. State budgets and the business cycle: implications for the federal balanced budgets amendment debate

    OpenAIRE

    Leslie McGranahan

    1999-01-01

    Balanced budgets and proponents often use the experience of the states with balanced budget restrictions as an argument in favor of a federal balanced budget amendment. However, the state experience is not directly relevant to the federal government. State restriction are more lenient than those considered at the federal level, and many of the techniques used by the states to blame their budgets over the business cycle are not available to the federal government.

  15. Disability, capacity for work and the business cycle: An international perspective

    OpenAIRE

    Ben??tez Silva, Hugo; Disney, Richard; Jim??nez-Mart??n, Sergi

    2009-01-01

    An important policy issue in recent years concerns the number of people claiming disability benefits for reasons of incapacity for work. We distinguish between ?work disability?, which may have its roots in economic and social circumstances, and ?health disability? which arises from clear diagnosed medical conditions. Although there is a link between work and health disability, economic conditions, and in particular the ?business cycle? and variations in the risk of unemploymen...

  16. Environmental Concern and the Business Cycle: The Chilling Effect of Recession

    OpenAIRE

    Kahn, Matthew E.; Kotchen, Matthew J

    2010-01-01

    This paper uses three different sources of data to investigate the association between the business cycle--measured with unemployment rates--and environmental concern. Building on recent research that finds internet search terms to be useful predictors of health epidemics and economic activity, we find that an increase in a state's unemployment rate decreases Google searches for "global warming" and increases searches for "unemployment," and that the effect differs according to a state's poli...

  17. What Causes Business Cycles? Analysis of the Japanese Industrial Production Data

    OpenAIRE

    Hiroshi Iyetomi; Yasuhiro Nakayama; Hiroshi Yoshikawa; Hideaki Aoyama; Yoshi Fujiwara; Yuichi Ikeda; Wataru Souma

    2009-01-01

    We explore what causes business cycles by analyzing the Japanese industrial production data. The methods are spectral analysis and factor analysis. Using the random matrix theory, we show that two largest eigenvalues are significant. Taking advantage of the information revealed by disaggregated data, we identify the first dominant factor as the aggregate demand, and the second factor as inventory adjustment. They cannot be reasonably interpreted as technological shocks. We also demonstrate th...

  18. Accounting for the Great Recession in the UK: Real Business Cycles and Financial Frictions

    OpenAIRE

    Jagjit S. Chadha; Warren, James

    2012-01-01

    Using the business cycle accounting (BCA) framework pioneered by Chari, Kehoe and McGratten (2006) we examine the 2008-09 recession in the UK. There has been much commentary on the financial causes of this recession, which we might have expected to shock the equation governing the intertemporal rate of substitution in consumption. However, the recession appears to have been mostly driven by shocks to the efficiency wedge in total production, rather than the intertemporal consumption, labour o...

  19. Foreign exchange intervention and the political business cycle: A panel data analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Dreher, Axel; Vaubel, Roland

    2007-01-01

    By combining expansionary open market operations with sales of foreign exchange, the central bank can expand the monetary base without depreciating the exchange rate. Thus, if there is a monetary political business cycle, sales of foreign exchange are especially likely before elections. Our panel data analysis for up to 158 countries in 1975-2001 supports this hypothesis. Foreign exchange reserves relative to trend GDP depend negatively on the pre-election index regardless of the exchange rat...

  20. The Beat of the Economic Heart: Joseph Schumpeter and Arthur Spiethoff on Business Cycles

    OpenAIRE

    Kurz, Heinz D.

    2010-01-01

    The paper discusses the relationship between Arthur Spiethoff and Joseph A. Schumpeter, the men and their works. Had it not been for Spiethoff Schumpeter would in all probability have forever been lost to scientific work. It was Spiethoff who brought the Austrian back to academia and research after a sequence of serious mishaps in politics and banking. Spiethoff's contribution to an analysis of business cycles is then summarized and important similarities and some differences between it and S...

  1. Bank-lending standards, loan growth and the business cycle in the Euro area

    OpenAIRE

    Kaufmann, Sylvia; Scharler, Johann

    2013-01-01

    We study the relationship between bank lending standards, loan growth and the business cycle in the euro area and the US within a vector error correciton model using Bayesian estimation methods. To deal with the short data series available for the euro area, we exploit information from the estimated US system to improve the estimation of the euro area system. We find that tighter bank lending standards are associated with lower loan growth as well as lower output growth in both areas. Differe...

  2. Higher-Order Income Risk and Social Insurance Policy Over the Business Cycle

    OpenAIRE

    Rocio Madera; Fatih Guvenen; David Domeij; Christopher Busch

    2015-01-01

    This paper studies how higher-order income risk varies over the business cycle as well as the extent to which such risks can be smoothed within households or with government social insurance policies. To provide a broad perspective on these questions, we study panel data on individuals and households from the United States, Germany, and Sweden, covering more than three decades of data for each country. We find that the underlying variation in higher-order risk is remarkably similar across the...

  3. The Housing Sector over Business Cycles:Empirical Analysis and DSGE Modelling

    OpenAIRE

    Brůha, Jan; Polanský, Jiří

    2014-01-01

    In this paper, we analyse the dynamics of the housing sector over business cycles. First, we provide an empirical analysis of the relationships between housing sector data and the main macroeconomic variables both on Czech data and on a sample of advanced economies. We document that in most countries the housing sector co-moves with the rest of the economy. In the past, the Czech housing market showed temporary episodes during which the housing sector was seemingly disconnected, but since 200...

  4. Monetary Union, Trade Integration, and Business Cycles in 19th Century Europe: Just Do It

    OpenAIRE

    Flandreau, Marc; Maurel, Mathilde

    2001-01-01

    This Paper seeks to trace the impact of monetary arrangements on trade integration and business cycle correlation, focusing on Europe in the late 19th century period as a guide for modern debates. For this purpose, we first estimate a gravity model and show that monetary arrangements were associated with substantially higher trade. The Austro-Hungarian dual monarchy, by many aspects a forerunner of Euroland, improved trade between member states by a factor of 3. Other arrangements, such as th...

  5. Appendix: Business Cycle Implications of Internal Consumption Habit for New Keynesian Models

    OpenAIRE

    Kano, Takashi; James M. Nason

    2012-01-01

    The appendix discusses computational aspects of the paper “Business Cycle Implications of Internal Consumption Habit for New Keynesian Models.” These topics range from solving the baseline new Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (NKDSGE) model, estimating the structural infinite-order vector moving averages, checking whether these models recover the fundamental shocks, to computing the permanent and transitory output and consumption growth spectral densities. More evidence about ...

  6. A Pearson's test for symmetry with an application to the Spanish business cycle

    OpenAIRE

    Jorge Belaire-Franch; Dulce Contreras

    2002-01-01

    In this paper, we look for asymmetries in the Spanish business cycle. To that end, we firstly propose an easy nonparametric testing procedure to test for symmetry based on a Pearson's chi-squared statistic, which we call P-test. Then, we test for two popular forms of asymmetry, deepness and steepness, using a battery of nonparametric tests. In addition, we analyse possible complementarities between the tests used in this paper, and we compute p-value adjustments for multiple tests.

  7. The International Risk-Sharing Puzzle is at Business Cycle and Lower Frequency

    OpenAIRE

    Corsetti, Giancarlo; Dedola, Luca; Viani, Francesca

    2011-01-01

    We decompose the Backus-Smith [1993] statistic --- a low or negative correlation between relative consumption and the real exchange rate at odds with a high degree of international risk sharing --- in its dynamic components at different frequencies. Using multivariate spectral analysis techniques we show that, in most OECD countries, the dynamic correlation tends to be more negative, and significantly so, at business cycle or lower frequencies --- the appropriate frequencies for assessing the...

  8. Real Business Cycle Models of the Great Depression : a Critical Survey

    OpenAIRE

    Pensieroso, Luca

    2005-01-01

    Recent years have witnessed a revival of interest in the Great Depression of the 1930s. Among the differing new interpretations, that of the real business cycle (RBC) is particularly significant. It represents an outstanding methodological innovation in trying to cast the Great Depression within an “equilibrium†framework. This paper critically reiews the RBC interpretation of the Great Depression, clarifying its theoretical and methodological foundations, and paving the way for future ass...

  9. Explicit solutions to a vector time series model and its induced model for business cycles

    OpenAIRE

    Chen, Xiongzhi

    2015-01-01

    This article gives the explicit solution to a general vector time series model that describes interacting, heterogeneous agents that operate under uncertainties but according to Keynesian principles, from which a model for business cycle is induced by a weighted average of the growth rates of the agents in the model. The explicit solution enables a direct simulation of the time series defined by the model and better understanding of the joint behavior of the growth rates. In addition, the ind...

  10. BUSINESS CYCLE EFFECTS ON CONCERN ABOUT CLIMATE CHANGE: THE CHILLING EFFECT OF RECESSION

    OpenAIRE

    Kahn, Matthew E.; Kotchen, Matthew J

    2011-01-01

    This paper uses two different sources of data to investigate the association between the business cycle — measured with unemployment rates — and public concern about climate change. Building on recent research that finds internet search terms to be useful predictors of health epidemics and economic activity, we find that an increase in a state's unemployment rate decreases Google searches for "global warming" and increases searches for "unemployment," and that the effect differs according to ...

  11. Is the United States an optimum currency area? an empirical analysis of regional business cycles

    OpenAIRE

    Michael A. Kouparitsas

    2001-01-01

    This paper develops a statistical model to study the business cycles of the eight U.S. BEA regions. By combining unobserved component and VAR techniques I identify not only common and idiosyncratic sources of innovation, but also common and idiosyncratic responses to common shocks. Using this model, I show, at the usual levels of statistical significance, that U.S. regions deviate significantly from Mundell's notion of an optimum currency area. I identify five core regions that have similar s...

  12. External Financing and the Role of Financial Frictions over the Business Cycle: Measurement and Theory

    OpenAIRE

    Ariel Zetlin-Jones; Ali Shourideh

    2012-01-01

    We examine the quantitative importance of financial market shocks in accounting for business cycle fluctuations. We emphasize the role financial markets play in reallocating funds from cash-rich, low productivity firms to cash-poor, high productivity firms. We use evidence on financial flows to analyze the importance of this role of financial markets. This evidence shows that in the aggregate, funds available to firms internally are more than adequate to finance investment. At the firm level,...

  13. Shocks, frictions, and business cycles in a developing Sub-Saharan African economy

    OpenAIRE

    Noah Ndela Ntsama, Jean Frederic

    2011-01-01

    This thesis examines the sources of business cycle fluctuations in a developing Sub-Saharan African economy. We develop an open economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model (DSGE), which is log-linearized, calibrated, and estimated with Bayesian techniques using South Africa macroeconomic data. The model incorporates various features such as external habit formation, internal investment adjustment cost, variable capacity utilization, domestically produced goods prices and wages sticki...

  14. Welfare cost of business cycles in economies with individual consumption risk

    OpenAIRE

    Ellison, Martin; Sargent, Thomas J.

    2012-01-01

    The welfare cost of random consumption fluctuations is known from De Santis (2007) to be increasing in the level of individual consumption risk in the economy. It is also known from Barillas et al. (2009) to increase if agents in the economy care about robustness to model misspecification. In this paper, we combine these two effects and calculate the cost of business cycles in an economy with consumers who face individual consumption risk and who fear model misspecification. We find that indi...

  15. Can Wage and Price Stickiness Account for Sizeable Costs of Business Cycle Fluctuations?

    OpenAIRE

    Paustian, Matthias

    2004-01-01

    This paper asks the following two questions: First, can a model with nominal rigidities in wage and price setting account for the average welfare costs of business cycle fluctuations identified in Gali, Gertler, and Lopez- Salido (2003)? Second, do we need to agree on a particular scheme for nominal rigidities to answer that question? We compute a quadratic approximation to agents expected lifetime utility and evaluate welfare for different modeling schemes of nominal rigidities that all have...

  16. Bank Credit Risk Management and Rating Migration Analysis on the Business Cycle

    OpenAIRE

    Dimitris Gavalas; Theodore Syriopoulos

    2014-01-01

    Credit risk measurement remains a critical field of top priority in banking finance, directly implicated in the recent global financial crisis. This paper examines the dynamic linkages between credit risk migration due to rating shifts and prevailing macroeconomic conditions, reflected in alternative business cycle states. An innovative empirical methodology applies to bank internal rating data, under different economic scenarios and investigates the implications of credit risk quality shift...

  17. A Bayesian Estimation of Real Business-Cycle Models for the Turkish Economy

    OpenAIRE

    Hüseyin Taştan; Bekir Aşık

    2014-01-01

    We estimate a canonical small open economy real business-cycle model and its several extensions using a Bayesian approach to explore the effects of different structural shocks on macroeconomic fluctuations in Turkey. Alternative models include several theoretical exogenous shocks, such as those to temporary and permanent productivity, world interest rates, preferences, and domestic spending, as driving forces together with financial frictions. Results indicate that output is mostly driven by ...

  18. Technology, Employment, and the Business Cycle: Do Technology Shocks Explain Aggregate Fluctuations

    OpenAIRE

    Jordi Gali

    1996-01-01

    Using data for the G7 countries, conditional correlations of employment and productivity are estimated, based on a decomposition of the two series into technology and non-technology components. The picture that emerges is hard to reconcile with the predictions of the standard real business cycle model. For a majority of countries the following results stand out: (a) technology shocks appear to induce a negative comovement between productivity and employment, counterbalanced by a positive como...

  19. Great opportunities or poor alternatives: self-employment, unemployment and paid employment over the business cycle

    OpenAIRE

    Ludo Visschers; Ana Millan; Matthias Kredler

    2014-01-01

    In this paper, we study the flows between self-employment, unemployment and paid employment, and how these vary over the business cycle. First, we document these flows in the data, paying particular attention to previous labor market outcomes for workers entering self-employment, and subsequent labor market outcomes for those leaving self-employment, and how these are affected by cyclical conditions. Second, we construct a two-ladder equilibrium model of a frictional labor market capturing th...

  20. Application of three non-linear econometric approaches to identify business cycles in Peru

    OpenAIRE

    Gabriel Rodríguez

    2010-01-01

    I use three non-linear econometric models to identify and analyze business cycles in the Peruvian economy for the period 1980:1-2008:4. The models are the Smooth Transition Autoregressive (STAR) model suggested by Teräsvirta (1994), the extended version of the Markov-Switching model proposed by Hamilton (1989), and the plucking model of Friedman (1964, 1993). The results indicate strong rejection of the null hypothesis of linearity. The majority of models identify quarters concentrated around...

  1. Do institutions matter for economic fluctuations? Weak property rights in a business cycle model for Mexico

    OpenAIRE

    2008-01-01

    This paper shows that introducing weak property rights in the standard real business cycle (RBC) model can help to explain economic fluctuations. This is motivated by the empirical observation that changes in institutions in emerging markets are related to the evolution of the main macroeconomic variables. In particular, in Mexico, the movements in productivity in the data are associated with changes in institutions, so that we can explain productivity shocks to a large extent as shocks to th...

  2. Business Cycle Dependent Unemployment Benefits with Wealth Heterogeneity and Precautionary Savings

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kristoffersen, Mark Strøm

    In the wake of the financial and economic crisis the discussion about social insurance and optimal stabilization policies has re-blossomed. This paper adds to the literature by studying the effects of a business cycle dependent level of unemployment benefits in a model with labor market matching...... of the distortionary effect (on job creation) from providing unemployment insurance, whereas countercyclical benefits facilitate consumption smoothing....

  3. A new view into political business cycles: Household behaviour in Albania

    OpenAIRE

    Endrit Lami; Holger Kächelein; Drini Imami

    2014-01-01

    Over the last decades, there has been plenty of research and publications on Political Business Cycles (PBC), aimed at analysing and explaining the use of fiscal and monetary instruments to stimulate economic growth before elections, with the intention of impressing potential voters. Previous research on PBC in Albania reveals clear evidence of fiscal expansion before elections, but no significant changes in GDP and inflation as theory predicts. One possible explanation of this result could b...

  4. The VAT Laffer Curve and the Business Cycle in the EU27: An Empirical Approach

    OpenAIRE

    F Guedes de Oliveira; Costa, L.

    2015-01-01

    Value Added Tax (VAT) standard rate Laffer curves are estimated for the European Union of twenty seven countries (EU27) over the period 1995-2011, using a twice continuously differentiable VAT revenue quadratic flexible functional form. A business cycle effect on the Laffer curve is found. In recession years, VAT revenue is typically lower, the curve steeper, and the VAT standard rate that maximises VAT revenue slightly smaller than previously. These results can be explained with reference to...

  5. Capital Requirements, Risk Choice, and Liquidity Provision in a Business Cycle Model

    OpenAIRE

    Begenau, Juliane Maria

    2015-01-01

    This paper develops a quantitative dynamic general equilibrium model in which households' preferences for safe and liquid assets constitute a violation of Modigliani and Miller. I show that the scarcity of these coveted assets created by increased bank capital requirements can reduce overall bank funding costs and increase bank lending. I quantify this mechanism in a two-sector business cycle model featuring a banking sector that provides liquidity and has excessive risk-taking incentives. Un...

  6. On "Real" and "Sticky-Price" Theories of the Business Cycle

    OpenAIRE

    1986-01-01

    This paper begins by identifying the distinguishing characteristic of the "real business cycle" (RBC) class of macroeconomic models. It then scruitinizes existing evidence, presented in support of the RBC approach, of three types: calibrated general equilibrium models with no monetary sector, vector-autoregression variance decomposition results, and univariate measurements of trend and cyclical components. It is argued that, in fact, these types of evidence have so far provided little support...

  7. The Cowles Commission Approach, Real Business Cycle Theories, and New Keynesian Economics

    OpenAIRE

    Ray C. Fair

    1992-01-01

    The Cowles Commission approach is reviewed and compared to the approaches of real business cycle (RBC) theorists and new Keynesian economists. It is argued that RBC models are not tested in a serious enough way and that the new Keynesian literature is not empirical enough for testing even to be a serious possibility. Macroeconomics seems to be moving away from its traditional empirical basis, which is sad. This paper argues for returning to the path that was abandoned by most macroeconomists ...

  8. Business Cycle Synchronization in Europe: Evidence from the Scandinavian Currency Union

    OpenAIRE

    U. Michael Bergman; Lars Jonung

    2010-01-01

    This paper studies business cycle synchronization in the three Scandinavian countries Denmark, Norway and Sweden prior to, during and after the Scandinavian Currency Union 1873-1913. We find that the degree of synchronization tended to increase during the currency union, thus supporting earlier empirical evidence. Estimates of factor models suggest that common Scandinavian shocks are important for these three countries. At the same time we find evidence suggesting that the importance of these...

  9. Incidence of remuneration to capital on the colombian business cycle from 1980 to 2005

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Julio César Chamorro Futinico

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available The business cycle was one of the most important issues in the economic agendafrom the late 19th Century to the mid 20th Century. The importance of the studylay in the priority of finding the causes and duration of economic crisis, and tobe able to determine or predict how often they would happen. Currently, and with the recent financial crisis in the United States (2008 and in Colombia(1998-2009, among others, this study has gained importance once more. Thispaper presents a number of points of view on the matter and focuses on an approach that has been given very little consideration: Michal Kalecki’s theory,which provides a basis for analyzing the Colombian business cycle from 1980to 2005, and thus compare the model estimated through the Three-Stage LeastSquares (3SLS method with the behavior of the remuneration to capital during the same period. Based on this, a close relation is found between the latter, the decision to invest and, therefore, the declining phase of the business cycle.

  10. Liquidity and the business cycle: Empirical evidence from the Greek banking sector

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vogiazas Sophocles

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available In the aftermath of the global financial turmoil the negative market sentiment and the challenging macroeconomic environment in Greece have severely affected the banking sector, which faces funding and liquidity challenges, deteriorating asset quality, and weakening profitability. This paper aims to investigate how banks’ liquidity interacted with solvency and the business cycle during the period 2004-2010. To this end a panel of 17 Greek banks is utilized which, in conjunction with cointegrating techniques and one-way static and dynamic panel models, explores the presence and the strength of the relationship between banks’ liquidity and the business cycle, while allowing for the role of banks’ solvency. Addressing the liquidity risk of the Greek banking sector and the liquidity-solvency nexus remains largely an uncharted area. The results generated provide clear-cut evidence on the linkages between banks’ market liquidity and the business cycle, as reflected in the real GDP and the effective exchange rate. Yet the results display a transmission channel that runs from banks’ solvency to liquidity and from country risk to bank risk.

  11. Interest Rates and Real Business Cycles in Emerging Markets (Yukselen Piyasalarda Faiz Oranlari ve Reel Is Cevrimleri)

    OpenAIRE

    S. Tolga Tiryaki

    2010-01-01

    We study the quantitative effects of interest rates on the business cycles of emerging markets. The real business cycle model featured in Neumeyer and Perri ("Business cycles in emerging economies : The role of interest rates."Journal of Monetary Economics, March 2005, 52 (2), 345-380.) is calibrated to match Turkish data. Fluctuations in country spread account for only less than 9 percent of output volatility, less than one third of the value found in Neumeyer and Perri. We show that their r...

  12. Who Bears the Cost of the Business Cycle? Labor-Market Institutions and Volatility of the Youth Unemployment Rate

    OpenAIRE

    Kawaguchi, Daiji; "Murao, Tetsushi"

    2011-01-01

    The way age-specific unemployment rates fluctuate over the business cycle differs significantly across countries. This paper examines the effect of labor-market institutions on the fluctuations of age-specific unemployment rates based on panel data of 18 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries between 1971 and 2000. Empirical results suggest that the cost of the business cycle disproportionately falls on youths in countries with stricter employment protection a...

  13. Some Business Cycle Consequences of Trade Agreements: Th e Case of the North American Free Trade Agreement

    OpenAIRE

    Bejan, Maria

    2007-01-01

    This paper investigates the effects of signing a trade agreement on the correlations of the business cycle fluctuations of consumption, investment and output between two countries. We construct an international business cycle model with trade costs and we calibrate it to the United States and Mexico in order to estimate the impact of NAFTA on their co-movements. Although there exist some discrepancies between the theory and data in the degree of correlation, the direction of change correspond...

  14. Procyclical Labor Productivity and Competing Theories of the Business Cycle: Some Evidence from Interwar U.S. Manufacturing Industries

    OpenAIRE

    Bernanke, Ben S.; Martin L. Parkinson

    1990-01-01

    Each of the main explanations of procyclical labor productivity, or short-run increasing returns to labor (SRIRL), is closely associated with a competing theory of the business cycle: Real business cycle theorists attribute SRIRL to procyclical technological shocks, proponents of recent theories based on non-convexities believe that SRIRL reflects true increasing returns, and Keynesians favor a labor hoarding explanation. Thus evidence on the sources of SRIRL may be important for discriminati...

  15. User-centred redesign of a business systemusing the Star Life Cycle method

    OpenAIRE

    Ahlström, Martin

    2008-01-01

    The purpose with this thesis was to study user activities in a business system, MediusFlow. The overall objective was to identify user related problems and to analyse which of the usability data gathering methods to use in the future development process of the company Medius. The outcome of this study indicated that a cognitive related user problem was the most important problem to solve. A Star Life Cycle method was preferred. Two low-fidelity prototypes were developed to exemplify an altern...

  16. Magnitude X on the Richter Scale: Welfare Cost of Business Cycles in Developing Countries

    OpenAIRE

    Stephane Pallage; Michel Robe

    2000-01-01

    Economic fluctuations are much stronger in developing countries than in the United States. Yet, while a large literature debates what constitutes a reasonable estimate of the welfare cost of business cycles in the US, it remains an open question how large that cost is in developing countries. Using several model economies, we provide such a measure for a large number of low--income countries. Our first main result is that the welfare cost of output fluctuations per se is far from trivial in t...

  17. Money, Nominal Contracts, and the Business Cycle: I. One-Period Contract Case

    OpenAIRE

    Jang-Ok Cho

    1990-01-01

    A modified version of the nominal contract developed by Gray (1976) and Fischer (1977) is introduced in a general equilibrium model with money which has been used in the real business cycle literature. Money is introduced in the model through cash-in-advance constraint. The contract studied is more efficient than that studied by Gray-Fischer in the sense that the processes involved in the calculation of the nominal contract are not from any other model but from the contract model itself. Two ...

  18. Gasoline Prices, Transport Costs, and the U.S. Business Cycles

    OpenAIRE

    Hakan Yilmazkuday

    2014-01-01

    The e¡èects of gasoline prices on the U.S. business cycles are investigated. In order to distinguish between gasoline supply and gasoline demand shocks, the price of gasoline is endogenously determined through a transportation sector that uses gasoline as an input of production. The model is estimated for the U.S. economy using five macroeconomic time series, including data on transport costs and gasoline prices. The results show that although standard shocks in the literature (e.g., technolo...

  19. Bank Credit Risk Management and Rating Migration Analysis on the Business Cycle

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dimitris Gavalas

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Credit risk measurement remains a critical field of top priority in banking finance, directly implicated in the recent global financial crisis. This paper examines the dynamic linkages between credit risk migration due to rating shifts and prevailing macroeconomic conditions, reflected in alternative business cycle states. An innovative empirical methodology applies to bank internal rating data, under different economic scenarios and investigates the implications of credit risk quality shifts for risk rating transition matrices. The empirical findings are useful and critical for banks to align to Basel guidelines in relation to core capital requirements and risk-weighted assets in the underlying loan portfolio.

  20. Classical linear-control analysis applied to business-cycle dynamics and stability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wingrove, R. C.

    1983-01-01

    Linear control analysis is applied as an aid in understanding the fluctuations of business cycles in the past, and to examine monetary policies that might improve stabilization. The analysis shows how different policies change the frequency and damping of the economic system dynamics, and how they modify the amplitude of the fluctuations that are caused by random disturbances. Examples are used to show how policy feedbacks and policy lags can be incorporated, and how different monetary strategies for stabilization can be analytically compared. Representative numerical results are used to illustrate the main points.

  1. Averaging business cycles vs. myopia: Do we need a long term vision when developing IRP?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McDonald, C. [Synergic Resources Corporation, Bala Cynwyd, PA (United States); Gupta, P.C. [Synergic Resources Corp., Oakland, CA (United States)

    1995-05-01

    Utility demand forecasting is inherently imprecise due to the number of uncertainties resulting from business cycles, policy making, technology breakthroughs, national and international political upheavals and the limitations of the forecasting tools. This implies that revisions based primarily on recent experience could lead to unstable forecasts. Moreover, new planning tools are required that provide an explicit consideration of uncertainty and lead to flexible and robust planning tools are required that provide an explicit consideration of uncertainty and lead to flexible and robust planning decisions.

  2. Turning points in nonlinear business cycle theories, financial crisis and the 2007-2008 downturn.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dore, Mohammed H I; Singh, Ragiv G

    2009-10-01

    This paper reviews three nonlinear dynamical business cycle theories of which only one (The Goodwin model) reflects the stylized facts of observed business cycles and has a plausible turning point mechanism. The paper then examines the US (and now global) financial crisis of 2008 and the accompanying downturn in the US. The paper argues that a skewed income distribution could not sustain effective demand and that over the 2001-2006 expansion demand was maintained through massive amounts of credit, with more than 50 percent of sales in the US being maintained through credit. A vector autoregression model confirms the crucial role played by credit. However legislative changes that dismantled the restrictions placed on the financial sector after the crash of 1929 and the consequent structural changes in the financial sector after 1980 enabled the growth of new debt instruments and credit. But overexpansion of credit when profits and house prices were declining in 2005/06 led to a nonlinear shift due to a new realization of the poor quality of some of this debt, namely mortgage backed securities. Bankruptcies, followed by retrenchment at the banks, then led to the bursting of the credit bubble, with the possibility of a severe recession. PMID:19781138

  3. Credit Default and Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation of Brazilian Retail Loans

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arnildo da Silva Correa

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available We use microdata from the Credit Information System (SCR of the Central Bank of Brazil to study the relationship between credit default and business cycles. In particular, we study the first part of the argument underlying the discussion about procyclicality related to the Basel II Accord: that recessions might increase credit defaults and have adverse impacts on the losses in portfolios of lender institutions. We explore both time series and cross-sectional variation in the data. Our data on the individual level are composed of retail loan transactions in two modalities-Consumer Credit and Vehicle Financing-from 2003 to 2008. Our results support the idea of a negative relationship between business cycles and credit default, but less strong than suggested in previous studies that use corporate data. We also find low and dispersed default correlations, and smaller losses in Value at Risk (VaR experiments than those found in the literature. These results may be possibly explained by the fact that, in the retail sector, loans are given to a large number of individuals, which may help to diversify risks.

  4. Coupled Oscillator Model of the Business Cycle withFluctuating Goods Markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ikeda, Y.; Aoyama, H.; Fujiwara, Y.; Iyetomi, H.; Ogimoto, K.; Souma, W.; Yoshikawa, H.

    The sectoral synchronization observed for the Japanese business cycle in the Indices of Industrial Production data is an example of synchronization. The stability of this synchronization under a shock, e.g., fluctuation of supply or demand, is a matter of interest in physics and economics. We consider an economic system made up of industry sectors and goods markets in order to analyze the sectoral synchronization observed for the Japanese business cycle. A coupled oscillator model that exhibits synchronization is developed based on the Kuramoto model with inertia by adding goods markets, and analytic solutions of the stationary state and the coupling strength are obtained. We simulate the effects on synchronization of a sectoral shock for systems with different price elasticities and the coupling strengths. Synchronization is reproduced as an equilibrium solution in a nearest neighbor graph. Analysis of the order parameters shows that the synchronization is stable for a finite elasticity, whereas the synchronization is broken and the oscillators behave like a giant oscillator with a certain frequency additional to the common frequency for zero elasticity.

  5. The troika of business cycle, efficiency and volatility. An East Asian perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arshad, Shaista; Rizvi, Syed Aun R.

    2015-02-01

    The EMH has been the subject of much debate over the past few decades, with a recent surge in interest in Asian markets. Asian markets which traditionally comprise of many emerging markets are more volatile and speculative in nature. The heart of our study focuses on the East Asian economies, which have experienced massive capital inflows. This begs the question of whether or not the stock markets are efficient enough for further investment and development. Our paper differs from existing literature as it focuses on deriving weak form efficiency rankings during different business cycle phases. We endeavour further to assess the volatility and business cycle phases. Taking Malaysia, Indonesia, Singapore and South Korea owing to their economic and financial development, we use MF-DFA to derive efficiency rankings and find firstly, the overall efficiency has improved over the past two decades and secondly, markets are more efficient in growth phases in comparison to its preceding decline. Similarly, employing wavelet decomposition in conjunction with EGARCH, we obtain volatility of stock markets in two distinct time horizons, i.e. short term and long term. We find the markets to be more stable during economic boom than its preceding bust. Our results confer with mainstream literature.

  6. A generalised dynamic factor model for the Belgian economy - Useful business cycle indicators and GDP growth forecasts

    OpenAIRE

    Christophe Van Nieuwenhuyze

    2006-01-01

    This paper aims to extract the common variation in a data set of 509 conjunctural series as an indication of the Belgian business cycle. The data set contains information on business and consumer surveys of Belgium and its neighbouring countries, macroeconomic variables and some worldwide watched indicators such as the ISM and the OECD confidence indicators. The statistical framework used is the One-sided Generalised Dynamic Factor Model developed by Forni, Hallin, Lippi and Reichlin (2005). ...

  7. The benefits of bad economies: Business cycles and time-based work-life conflict.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnes, Christopher M; Lefter, Alexandru M; Bhave, Devasheesh P; Wagner, David T

    2016-04-01

    Recent management research has indicated the importance of family, sleep, and recreation as nonwork activities of employees. Drawing from entrainment theory, we develop an expanded model of work-life conflict to contend that macrolevel business cycles influence the amount of time employees spend on both work and nonwork activities. Focusing solely on working adults, we test this model in a large nationally representative dataset from the Bureau of Labor Statistics that spans an 8-year period, which includes the "Great Recession" from 2007 through 2009. We find that during economic booms, employees work more and therefore spend less time with family, sleeping, and recreating. In contrast, in recessionary economies, employees spend less time working and therefore more time with family, sleeping, and recreating. Thus, we extend the theory on time-based work-to-family conflict, showing that there are potential personal and relational benefits for employees in recessionary economies. PMID:26569135

  8. The timing of pollution abatement investments and the business cycle. An international comparison

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A simple equilibrium business-cycle model for an economy with both clean- and dirty-producing plants is developed. The authors derive that the optimal timing of cleaning the production process is during a slowdown of the economy. Due to external effects and market failures the timing of pollution abatement investments is not expected to be optimal in the real world. We test the optimality of the timing of those investments with data for Germany, the Netherlands and the U.S.A. It appears that for more than 25 percent of the sectors pollution abatement investments show counter-cyclical behaviour, while in only one sector these investments are pro-cyclical. 1 tab., 3 appendices, 10 refs

  9. Challenges and solutions for adoption of advanced cycles for power generation in today's business climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Total world electricity production is forecast to nearly double over the next 25 years. Dependence on fossil fuels for electricity production will continue to dominate through this period and well into the future. Currently, coal is the fuel for about 30% of total installed power generation capacity and the coal share of the electricity market is expected to remain essentially steady over the 25 year period. Nevertheless, the amount of coal consumed for power generation will increase substantially. It is expected that world coal-fired power production will grow at an average rate of 3% per annum. The forecast demand growth for power generation will require an investment of the order of US$3 trillion with about US$1 trillion in coal-fired power generation. In Australia, coal is the principal fuel for power generation, providing more than 80% of electricity production. Two thirds of electricity generation from coal in Australia relies on high-rank coals (bituminous coals) and one-third on low-rank coals (brown coals and lignite). Coal will remain the principal fuel for electricity generation, in Australia and worldwide, for many decades to come. The relatively low cost of coal in Australia, particularly brown coal in Victoria, provides the nation with an important international competitive advantage - low cost energy for industry, business and domestic consumers. However, projections by the National Electricity Market Management Company Limited (NEMMCO 2001) clearly show a looming critical shortfall in baseload supply within a decade, possibly within five or six years, in the Victorian and South Australian markets. This baseload requirement can only be partly addressed through interstate connections and cannot be met with existing plans for open cycle gas turbine peaking plant. For Australia to continue to benefit from its international competitive advantage from relatively low energy costs, there is a need to install new brown coal fired baseload power generation

  10. Do loss profiles on the mortgage market resonate with changes in macro economic prospects, business cycle movements or policy measures?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    L.H.J. Noordegraaf-Eelens (Liesbeth); Ph.H.B.F. Franses (Philip Hans)

    2014-01-01

    markdownabstract__Abstract__ Over the years we see that mortgages with less risk of loss, due to more asset accumulation, have become more popular. We examine if this popularity resonates with macroeconomic features, business cycle movements and policy measures. Using detailed data from an importan

  11. Application of Life Cycle Assessment for Corporate Sustainability : Integrating environmental sustainability in business for value creation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Manda, B.M.K.

    2014-01-01

    The main objective of this research is to make a contribution to bridge the gap between sustainability science and business management by improving the integration of sustainability in core business of corporations. The core business of corporations is to provide products and services to meet societ

  12. MEMBANGUN EARLY WARNING INDICATORS PERGERAKAN KURS DI INDONESIA: PENGEMBANGAN BUSINESS CYCLE ANALYSIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andra Devi Benazir

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available The economic crisis in 1997/1998 that was signed by depreciation rupiah almost destroyed the pillars of the economy. This exchange rate shock possibly will happen in the future like that happened in August 2007. At the same time, rupiah falled to the lowest level Rp. 9.410 per dollar (the exchange rate use the last month in August 2007. The exchange rate of its daily until above Rp 9.500 per dollar (Sadewa, 2007. Therefore, it was needed indicator of theearly detection with build leading indicators the movement of the exchange rate in Indonesia. The purpose of this research is building leading indicators the movement of the exchangerate in Indonesia. It could give the capacity forecasting of the Indonesian economy of the movement direction in a manner the aggregate with the Business Cycle Analysis method andIts development. Empirical results showed that is received by four leading indicators and four coincident indicators. The real export, the real import, foreign currency deposit, and forexbanks demand deposits in foreign currency became the moving indicator preceded the exchange rate. Whereas, there are four indicators to coincident was foreign assets, interbank call money rate 1 day, the German share index (DAX, and the USA share index (Nasdaq. This condition indicated that the exchange rate rupiah really was affected by the external factor.

  13. MARKET CHANGES, BUSINESS CYCLES AND FLUCTUATIONS IN ELECTRICITY PRICES - EU EVIDENCE FROM GERMANY AND SLOVENIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    France Križanič

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This article deals with interesting oscillation pattern in electricity prices during the period of EU electric power supply liberalization process, its transition from infrastructure to market activity and during last economic crisis, when at first prices declined significantly, to be raised afterward and start to decline again during the last recession. Using empirical evidence from Germany and Slovenia and based on short theoretical background we try to explain how can such strong oscillations occur and what we can expect in the future? It was discovered that such oscillations can be connected with business cycles dynamic, only that electricity prices oscillations proved to be even stronger unless a major technological breakthrough occurs in the way energy is produced or spent. Economic growth affects electricity prices even in relative terms, causes growth in prices with respect to inflation and vice versa. To conclude, we can expect relative growth of electric power prices together with economic recovery in the near future, but growth should be moderately slower than growth of real GDP.

  14. Nonlinear dynamics in a business-cycle model with logistic population growth

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    We consider a discrete-time growth model of the Solow type where workers and shareholders have different but constant saving rates and the population growth dynamics is described by the logistic equation able to exhibit complicated dynamics. We show conditions for the resulting system having a compact global attractor and we describe its structure. We also perform a mainly numerical analysis using the critical lines method able to describe the strange attractor and the absorbing area, in order to show how cyclical or complex fluctuations may be produced in a business-cycle model. We study the dynamic behaviour of the model under different ranges of the main parameters, i.e. the elasticity of substitution between the two production factors and the one in the logistic equation (namely μ). We prove the existence of complex dynamics when the elasticity of substitution between production factors drops below one (so that capital income declines) or μ increases (so that the amplitude of movements in the population growth rate increases).

  15. A study on the complexity of a business cycle model with great excitements in non-resonant condition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Based on the researches of Szydlowski and Krawiec, we studied the inherent complexity of a chaotic business cycle with great excitements in non-resonant condition. First, we got the first-order and second-order approximate solutions of the system by using multiple scale method. Then deduced the formulation reflecting the complex relations between vibration, phase, bifurcation parameter μ and excite frequency Ω of first-order solution. As the great excitement F varied, the global changes of the system solutions were analyzed. We also explored the different paths leading the systems with different parameter combinations into catastrophe region, fuzzy region or chaos region. Finally, we discussed the evolution trends of business cycle models under the above-mentioned conditions. Hence, this paper has some theoretical and practical significance.

  16. The Carrot and the Stick: The Business Cycle Implications of Incentive Pay in the Labor Search Model

    OpenAIRE

    Champagne, Julien

    2015-01-01

    This paper considers a real business cycle model with labor search frictions where two types of incentive pay are explicitly introduced following the insights from the micro literature on performance pay (e.g. Lazear, 1986). While in both schemes workers and firms negotiate ahead of time-t information, the object of the negotiation is different. The first scheme is called an "efficiency wage," since it follows closely the intuition of the shirking model by Shapiro and Stiglitz (1984), while t...

  17. Business cycle and economic-wide energy intensity: The implications for energy conservation policy in Algeria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Despite the prevalence of voluntary and involuntary energy conservation policies, developing countries in Africa continue to struggle to achieve energy efficiency targets. Consequently, energy intensity levels have risen threatening the security of the energy system. This raises the important question: is there an economic state that induces agents to be energy conscious? In this study, we study the case of Algeria's energy intensity from 1971 to 2010. First, the paper argues that there is a certain economic state that economic agents find investing in energy conservation a viable option. Any state different from that would mean not investing in energy conservation. Second, the paper argues that the economy can do better even with an infinitesimal reduction in fuel subsidy, and that the gains in revenue from the policy can compensate for the negative socio-economic and equity impacts associated with such a policy. Third, the paper argues that, so long as, industrial expansion in the country move parallel with investment in technological innovation, long-term sustainable growth and energy conservation targets are jointly feasible. Fourth, the paper shows that income elasticity evolves with the business cycle, and the absorptive capability of the host country affects how FDI (foreign direct inflows) impact energy intensity. - Highlights: • Low income states inhibit fuel substitution and investment in energy conservation. • Income elasticity evolves as we pass through boom and recessionary periods. • The goals of sustainable growth and energy conservation are not mutually exclusive. • Absorptive capability affects the impact of FDI on energy intensity

  18. The Impact of Introducing a Minimum Wage on Business Cycle Volatility; A Structural Analysis for Hong Kong SAR

    OpenAIRE

    International Monetary Fund

    2008-01-01

    We study the impact of a minimum wage on business cycle volatility, depending upon its coverage and adjustment mechanism. As with other small open economies, Hong Kong SAR is vulnerable to external shocks, with its exchange rate regime precluding active monetary policy. Adjustment to past shocks has relied on flexible domestic prices. We find that a minimum wage affecting 20 percent of employees would amplify output volatility by 0.2 percent to 9.2 percent, and employment volatility by ?1.2 p...

  19. The Business Cycle — Developments in the Economy’s Response to Disturbances

    OpenAIRE

    Australian Treasury

    1998-01-01

    This article examines some of the developments influencing the Australian economy’s response to disturbances such as drought, movements in world commodity prices and changing economic conditions in our trading partners and world financial markets. These developments include changes in macroeconomic policy, the floating of the exchange rate, microeconomic reform and changes in the pattern of business investment.

  20. Life cycle assessment of hybrid vehicles recycling: Comparison of three business lines of dismantling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Belboom, Sandra; Lewis, Grégory; Bareel, Pierre-François; Léonard, Angélique

    2016-04-01

    This paper undertakes an environmental evaluation of hybrid vehicles recycling, using industrial data from Comet Traitement SA in Belgium. Three business lines have been modelled and analysed. The first one is relative to the business as usual with a dismantling to recover batteries and engines followed by shredding and post shredding treatments. The second one considers, in addition, the removal of electronic control units (ECU) before shredding followed by same steps than in the first line and the last one is relative to the additional removal of big plastic parts before shredding and business as usual post shredding treatments. Results show non-significant environmental benefits when ECU or large parts of plastics are recovered before shredding. Improvements in terms of environmental benefits are lower than the uncertainty of the results. Indeed, the performing usual process for end-of-life vehicles (ELV) treatment reaches 97% of the ELV which is valorised in terms of metal and energy recoveries. Post shredding treatment units include metals, plastics and energy recovery of residues. Comet business as usual route for ELV valorisation is in accordance with the requirements of the European directive and recommendations for further improvement with dismantling of other parts (ECU or plastics) before shredding are non-relevant in this case. PMID:26898478

  1. Formation of the Cycle of Business Processes of Management of Marketing Activity of a Transport Enterprise

    OpenAIRE

    Horielov Dmytro O.; Lavrova Yuliia V.

    2014-01-01

    The article is devoted to problems of organisation of the process of management of marketing activity of an enterprise. It specifies the model of services of a transport enterprise and provides levels of services and their structure: basic, real, expanded, expected and prospective. The article offers to differentiate planning and realisation of the transportation service by its levels, each of which would correspond with a separate business process of management. It reveals specific features ...

  2. The Mathematical Theory of Business Cycle in Italy in the Thirties

    OpenAIRE

    Pomini Mario

    2014-01-01

    Economic cycle theory has constituted one of the most important research fields in the period between the two world wars. It is possible to identify an Italian element in the international debate, composed primarily of contributions from Amoroso (1932; 1935; 1940), Vinci (1934; 1937; 1953), Bordin (1935) and Palomba (1939). Building on and innovating on the mathematical models of Evans and Roosin the second half of the 1920s, Paretian economists proposed models in which the economic cycle cou...

  3. Business cycles and the financial performance of fuel cell companies. Paper no. IGEC-1-074

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    While most business owners are likely to admit that the economic performance of the economy has some impact on their business, there has been relatively little statistical work done to measure just how sensitive the financial performance of fuel cell firms is to changes in macroeconomic activity. In this paper, a four variable vector autoregression model is developed and estimated in order to investigate the empirical relationship between stock prices, oil prices and interest rates. Our results show the stock prices of fuel cell companies to be impacted by shocks to technology stock prices and oil prices. Technology stock price shocks have a longer lasting and greater (in terms of magnitude) impact on the stock prices of fuel cell companies then oil price shocks. These results add to a small but growing literature showing that oil price movements are not as important as once thought because investors view fuel cell companies as similar to other high technology companies. These results should be of use to investors, managers and policy makers. (author)

  4. The relationship between macroeconomic and industry-specific business cycle indicators and work-related injuris among Danish construction workers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Kent Jacob; Lander, Flemming; Lauritsen, Jens

    2015-01-01

    Danish unemployment rate) and two construction industry-specific indicators (gross value added and the number of employees). Results The results show that injury rates increase during economic booms and decrease during recessions. However, the regression coefficients were generally weak for both the ED...... Danish Working Environment Authority (WEA). Methods The correlations between ED and WEA injury data from the catchment area of Odense University Hospital during the period 1984–2010 were tested separately for variability and trend with two general macroeconomic indicators (gross domestic product and the...... (range 0.14–0.20) and WEA injuries (range 0.13–0.36). Furthermore, although there is some variability in the strength of the relationship of the different business cycle indicators, the relationships are generally not stronger for the WEA injuries than for the ED injuries, except for general unemployment...

  5. Tripartite analysis across business cycles in Turkey: A multi-timescale inquiry of efficiency, volatility and integration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shaista Arshad

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available In the current era of globalization, deregulation and liberalization of markets have led to financial integration amongst developing and developed countries. The sudden massive inflow of capital into developing country's stock markets begs the question of whether or not the markets are sufficiently efficient to handle the increasing integration of markets. Furthermore, the relationship between the integration and efficiency of stock markets tends to be of greater importance during economic downturns. Taking Turkey as a case study owing to its economic growth and importance in two successful blocs, i.e. the EU and the OIC, we attempt to analyse the linkages between stock market efficiency and integration during the different phases of the economy. The findings of our study provide an interesting insight into the relative improvement in volatility, efficiency and integration across business cycles, in a multi time scale analysis.

  6. Business Cycles, Monetary Policy, and Bank Lending: Identifying the bank balance sheet channel with firm-bank match-level loan data

    OpenAIRE

    "Hosono, Kaoru"; MIYAKAWA Daisuke

    2014-01-01

    This paper examines the impact of business cycles and monetary policy on bank loan supply. To this end, we use a unique firm-bank match-level dataset covering listed firms in Japan that allows us to control for firms' time-varying unobservable loan demand and endogenous bank-firm matching, so that we can identify the effects of business cycles and monetary policy on loan supply through the bank balance sheet channel. The estimation results indicate that banks with more liquidity or capital te...

  7. The business cycles and the influence of economic confidence indicators in the European region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexandru Constantinescu

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available The economic confidence level is expressed by managers that are active in significant economic sectors. The financial markets consider these economic confidence indicators as leading instruments that can point the direction of the real economy. The level of trust in the economy is important because, similar with the stock investors behavior, the private sector managers or the consumers can act and carry a restrictive or a euphoric business policy, actions that could in fact affect the environment in a negative way and could unbalance the economic equilibrium.The role of this study is to propose a methodology of analyzing the influence of the economic confidence indicators over the stock market, an industry that can be overlooked as a transmission environment for the investment sentiment. We plan to study and comment the relation between these indicators, the stock market and future macroeconomic results like the GDP, the industrial production or the unemployment rate.

  8. International Gold Market, Stock Market and Business Cycles: the Central and Eastern European Countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Viorica Chirila

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available During theeconomic recession periods, gold investments seem to become very importantbecause gold is considered a means to preserve the investment value. Gold has also maintained thisfeature during the financial and economic crisis that occurred at the end of theyear 2007. Althoughthe inflation rate has recorded significant increases, the investment in gold has kept its value becausethe price of gold has increased. After the beginning of the financial and economic crisis the price ofgold has also recorded a significant increase in volatility. The aims of this study focus on thecomparative analysis of the gold price cycles and the stock market cycles in the Central and EastEurope as well as the determination of the return of gold investment on the return and risk of stockmarkets in these countries. The results obtained confirm that both the return and the risk in some ofthe stock markets under analysis are influenced by the return of gold investment.

  9. Interpreting Business Cycles as Generalized Two-Dimensional Loops Using Penalized Splines Regression Techniques

    OpenAIRE

    Timo Teuber

    2013-01-01

    The two-dimensional circular structure model by Kauermann, Teuber, and Flaschel (2011) will be extended to estimate more than two time series simultaneously. It will be assumed that the multivariate time series follow a cycle over the time. However, the radius and the angle are allowed to smoothly change over the time and will be estimated using a Penalized Spline Regression Technique. The model will be put to life using the Leading, Coincident and Lagging Indicators provided by the Conferenc...

  10. Future changes in climate, ocean circulation, ecosystems, and biogeochemical cycling simulated for a business-as-usual CO2 emission scenario until year 4000 AD

    OpenAIRE

    A. Schmittner; Oschlies, Andreas; H. D. Matthews; E. D. Galbraith

    2008-01-01

    A new model of global climate, ocean circulation, ecosystems, and biogeochemical cycling, including a fully coupled carbon cycle, is presented and evaluated. The model is consistent with multiple observational data sets from the past 50 years as well as with the observed warming of global surface air and sea temperatures during the last 150 years. It is applied to a simulation of the coming two millennia following a business-as-usual scenario of anthropogenic CO2 emissions (SRES A2 until year...

  11. Book review: Schumpeter, J.A., 1934 (2008, The Theory of Economic Development: An Inquiry into Profits, Capital, Credit, Interest and the Business Cycle

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alin Croitoru

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Alin Croitoru / Book review: Schumpeter, J.A., 1934 (2008, The Theory of Economic Development: An Inquiry into Profits, Capital, Credit, Interest and the Business Cycle, translated from the German by Redvers Opie, New Brunswick (U.S.A and London (U.K.: Transaction Publishers

  12. Being born under adverse economic conditions leads to a higher cardiovascular mortality rate later in life: evidence based on individuals born at different stages of the business cycle

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    van den Berg, Gerard J; Doblhammer-Reiter, Gabriele; Christensen, Kaare

    2011-01-01

    since the 1870s and including the cause of death. To capture exogenous variation of conditions early in life, we use the state of the business cycle around birth. We find significant negative effects of economic conditions around birth on the individual CV mortality rate at higher ages. There is no...

  13. Closing the nuclear fuel cycle in the U.S., economics and business models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    There are different strategies available for managing used nuclear fuel. Some countries recycle used fuel to re-utilize valuable material, while others store used fuel for future disposal in geologic repositories ('once-through' fuel cycle). For the last twenty years, the U.S. has adopted the once-through cycle and has begun the development of a geologic repository for used fuel disposal at Yucca Mountain. Several factors have emerged in the last few years and have started to re-open the debate on what is the appropriate used fuel management strategy in the U.S. Most notably, cost estimates for the development of a geologic repository have escalated and are expected to keep increasing in the near future. At the same time, the U.S. is seeing a renewed interest in nuclear energy and significant nuclear power generation capacity is expected to be added to the current base. Moreover, price of uranium have experience a dramatic rise, as much as a seven-fold increase, in the last two years. Finally, the recycling strategy has proven to be operationally effective in countries other than the U.S. and a solid industrial experience base has accumulated. Recycling as part of a comprehensive nuclear waste management strategy and complementary to an exclusive once-through strategy appear to be a viable option that requires serious consideration. Several questions need to be addressed to determine the viability of recycling in the U.S. What are the underlying economics and how does recycling compare with alternative options? What approach for technology and funding has the highest success rate for such a capital-intensive project? What kind of infrastructure (recycling plant, transportation, process, etc.) is needed? What is the most appropriate development schedule? Several scenarios have been evaluated through economic modeling and analyses of system dynamics. Results indicate that a recycling approach that includes a commercially-developed integrated recycling facility

  14. REDISCOVERING MISES-HAYEK MONETARY AND BUSINESS CYCLE THEORY IN LIGHT OF THE CURRENT CRISIS: CREDIT EXPANSION AS A SOURCE OF ECONOMIC BOOM AND BUST

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcin Mrowiec

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available The article starts with a brief description of Mises’ monetary theory, with emphasis on the Misesian differentiation of two kinds of credit: commodity and circulation credit, and with the description of the impact of circulation credit expansion on the business cycle. Further on it is described how Mises’ insights constituted the kernel of Austrian Business Cycle Theory, and how the same observations on the nature of credit constituted the kernel of the Chicago Plan (though Mises’ views on the nature of credit led him to different conculsions than it led the authors of the Chicago Plan, and how this plan is being “rediscovered” now. The following sections deal with observations of one of the preeminent current macroeconomic researches, Mr. Claudio Borio, on the elasticity of credit as the source of the current crisis, and on the importance of the financial cycle in analysing the current economic crisis. The author of this text demonstrates that Austrian Business Cycle Theory gave the same answer regarding the sources of economic crises that now modern macroeconomic theory seems to be approaching, and that the postulates for successful financial cycle modeling are already included in the ABCT. Finally, some observations on the current crisis, as well as proposals of avenues of further research are proposed.

  15. Oil prices and the U.S. business cycle; Le prix du petrole et la conjoncture economique americaine

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lescaroux, F

    2006-06-15

    The recent surge in oil prices rakes up old fears and the spectre of stagflation hangs over worldwide economic growth's forecasts. After 30 years of research however analysts still disagree about the influence of oil prices on macro-economic variations and the estimations of the consequences of a costlier barrel differ. As to the United States for example, elasticities between real GDP and oil price form a wide spectrum stretching from a value close to -1% to -11,6%. In this context, we try to identify the potential sources of instability in the oil price-macro-economy relationship in order to explain the width of this range. First we draw attention to the distinction between the effects of an upward disequilibrium and of an upturn in the equilibrium in the oil price series. This distinction lets us share the range of published results in two parts: the elasticities of real American GDP with respect to an upward imbalance and with respect to a rise in the equilibrium price would lie approximately in the ranges extending, respectively, from -1% to -5,5% and from -5% to -11,6%. We direct our work towards the analysis of the consequences of short-run variations in the oil prices on the U.S. business cycle. We identify a set of influences which condition the vulnerability of an economy and then construct an econometric sectoral and non-linear model inspired from Marshall's theory. The simulations conducted let us explain the long-run weakening in the oil price-macro-economy relationship and highlight the prominent part played by imported inflation and monetary policy in the crisis of the 70's and 80's. According to the values of the structural factors in the model and to the shape of the oil price short-run disequilibrium, the elasticities evaluated cover the whole range of published elasticities. (author)

  16. Business Cycle Accounting

    OpenAIRE

    V. V. Chari; Patrick J. Kehoe; Ellen McGrattan

    2004-01-01

    We propose a simple method to help researchers develop quantitative models of economic fluctuations. The method rests on the insight that many models are equivalent to a prototype growth model with time-varying wedges which resemble productivity, labor and investment taxes, and government consumption. Wedges corresponding to these variables -- effciency, labor, investment, and government consumption wedges -- are measured and then fed back into the model in order to assess the fraction of var...

  17. Political business cycles

    OpenAIRE

    Richard E. Wagner

    1990-01-01

    This is a collection of articles on how the government influences the economy in order to secure re-election. The economy is steered such that unemployment and inflation are as low as possible, and the growth of real income as high as possible during the election period. The collection contains forerunners to the analysis of this phenomenon, surveys emphasizing different aspects, empirical and the major theoretical approaches (vote maximization, partisan, and vote-cum-partisan models and rati...

  18. How Small Businesses Market Their Products during the Different Phases of the Product Life Cycle: The Case of Swedish Ice Cream Manufacturers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Annika Hallberg

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available The Swedish ice cream market of today is dominated by a few major market leaders, which makes it a challenge for small firms to make themselves visible and survive on a long-term basis. The aim of this article is to investigate and understand how small firms in the ice cream business market their products, based on the marketing mix and the portfolio matrix, during the different phases of the product life cycle. The combination of the two models for strategic planning enables the marketing manager to conduct a more complete analysis of existing products and their place on the market and in the product life cycle. Eight CEOs of small-scale ice cream companies were interviewed. This study found that the marketing activities and strategies of large companies cannot be transferred to and implemented in small-scale businesses. Different marketing theories are developed for big businesses that have many employees and expert knowledge, which small companies do not possess. They also have less resources and knowledge to invest in expensive marketing activities in the marketing mix, and therefore the marketing mix models need to incorporate more of inexpensive marketing.

  19. Survey report on trends of technical development on FBR cycle in Russia. Result report of business entrusted by the Japan Nuclear Cycle Development Institute

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This survey was carried out for aims to smoothly promote the FBR cycle cooperation carried out between the Japan Nuclear Cycle Development Institute and Nuclear Energy Agency in Russia Republic and to contribute their future cooperative planning, on a survey of technical developmental trend for items shown as follows: 1) recent trend on Russian FBR cycle technology, 2) Russian laws related on Russian FBR cycle cooperation, and 3) trends on separation and reprocessing technologies in Russia. Here was described on results on the survey, shown in the following items: 1) performing method, 2) Russian FBR fuel cycle; recent technical development, 3) basic laws on nuclear energy application in Russia, and 4) trends on separation and reprocessing technologies in Russia. (G.K.)

  20. Improving life-cycle cost management in the US. Army: analysis of the U.S. Army and Commercial Businesses life-cycle cost management.

    OpenAIRE

    White, Bradley A

    2001-01-01

    The roles and responsibilities of the Army acquisition and logistics communities, as they pertain to the life-cycle management, are undergoing fundamental change. The early identification and total control of life-cycle cost, in particular operations and sustainment costs which comprises as much as 70-80% of a systems total life-cycle cost, is a high priority for the Army. The basis of this change is adoption of commercial best practices to support the Army's goal to organize. tram. equip, an...

  1. Leading Indicators Approach for Business Cycle Forecasting and a Study on Developing a Leading Economic Indicators Index for the Turkish Economy

    OpenAIRE

    Ali Murutoglu

    1999-01-01

    Business cycles, one of the main characteristics of developed countries’ economies, have begun to play an important role for the Turkish Economy. Especially after the 1994 crisis (which was one of the most severe one since the foundation of Turkish Republic) and the current slow-down of the economy (mainly because of the global crisis which stemmed from the south-east Asian countries and Russia), it has become vital to foresee the future of the economy (i.e. which phase the economy will be in...

  2. How Small Businesses Market Their Products during the Different Phases of the Product Life Cycle: The Case of Swedish Ice Cream Manufacturers

    OpenAIRE

    Annika Hallberg; Susana Friberg; Paulina Myhrman

    2014-01-01

    The Swedish ice cream market of today is dominated by a few major market leaders, which makes it a challenge for small firms to make themselves visible and survive on a long-term basis. The aim of this article is to investigate and understand how small firms in the ice cream business market their products, based on the marketing mix and the portfolio matrix, during the different phases of the product life cycle. The combination of the two models for strategic planning enables t...

  3. Validating the Learning Cycle Models of Business Simulation Games via Student Perceived Gains in Skills and Knowledge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tao, Yu-Hui; Yeh, C. Rosa; Hung, Kung Chin

    2015-01-01

    Several theoretical models have been constructed to determine the effects of buisness simulation games (BSGs) on learning performance. Although these models agree on the concept of learning-cycle effect, no empirical evidence supports the claim that the use of learning cycle activities with BSGs produces an effect on incremental gains in knowledge…

  4. The Historical Review of Modern Business Cycle Theory%现代经济周期理论的历史审视

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    丁志帆

    2013-01-01

    For the formation mechanism of economic cycle phenomena, different economic cycle theory interprets from dif-ferentiated perspective. Follow the economic cycle theory development skeleton, we recall the evolution of business cycle theo-ry since the great depression of the 1930s, and observe the background and main ideas of five main modern economic cycle theory. We find that: Firstly, there is no strictly" General Theory", business cycle theory only in the specific historical context have explanatory power, and maintain its vitality depends on continuous innovation and development; Secondly, although differ-ent economic cycles have different theoretical perspectives in the form mechanism of economic fluctuations, but modern west-ern economic theories gradual shift from confrontation toward integration; Thirdly, the emerging neo-classical economics which emerging since 1990s, provides theoretical basis for macroeconomic policy control system under the conditions of market econ-omy.%对于经济周期波动现象的形成机理,不同经济周期理论从差异化视角进行了解读。本文沿着经济周期理论的发展脉络,回顾了20世纪30年代大萧条以来经济周期理论的演进历程,对五种主要的现代经济周期理论的产生背景和主体思想进行了考察。研究发现:不存在严格意义上的“通论”,经济周期理论只在特定历史背景下才有解释力,其生命力的保持有赖于理论的不断创新与发展;虽然在经济波动的形成机理上,不同经济周期理论观点不一,但是西方现代经济周期理论逐渐从对立走向融合;20世纪90年代以来出现的新兴的新古典经济学为市场经济条件下的宏观经济政策调控体系提供了理论依据。

  5. Lengthening the life cycle of automobiles as a business idea : Case studies Fangmbeng & Son’s Shipping ay

    OpenAIRE

    Kika Fangmbeng, Ernest

    2011-01-01

    Nowadays there are plenty of cars which still can be used, for instance, as a source of spares part after they have been used for work, business, or pleasure. It is usual that those cars consume petrol or diesel and contribute to pollution of the atmosphere. But they could last with good services and repair for quite a long time, maybe for ten years or more. However there comes a time when the repairing does not pay. But for sure these cars can be used as spare parts storage for many other ca...

  6. Dictionary of economics and business

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nemmers, E.E.

    1978-01-01

    The dictionary is designed to include the terms commonly used in courses in the following subjects: accounting, administration, business cycles, business law, business and government, business organization, econometrics, economics, economic theory, finance, insurance, international economics, investments, labor problems, management science, marketing, money and banking, operation research, personnel management, production, public finance, public utilities, real estate, securities, statistics, taxation, and transportation.

  7. Doing Business Regional Profile 2016

    OpenAIRE

    World Bank Group

    2016-01-01

    Doing Business sheds light on how easy or difficult it is for a local entrepreneur to open and run a small to medium-size business when complying with relevant regulations. It measures and tracks changes in regulations affecting 11 areas in the life cycle of a business: starting a business, dealing with construction permits, getting electricity, registering property, getting credit, protec...

  8. Cycling more for safer cycling

    OpenAIRE

    VAN HOUT, Kurt

    2009-01-01

    Cycling presents a lot of benefits to the individual and to society. Health, environment, accessibility, local businesses, … all gain when more people cycle. Yet many governments are reluctant when it comes to promoting cycling, mainly because of (perceived) safety issues. Since studies have established a clear and consistent relationship between bicycle use and cyclist accident risk, this lack of bicycle promotion will influence the safety outcome of bicyclists. In this paper the relation be...

  9. Business ethics

    OpenAIRE

    Raman Arora

    2002-01-01

    Ethics contain a set of principles of personal and professional conduct .The concept of Business ethics relates itself to the norms and the ideals businessman and business groups adopt in course of their activities in business .Business ethics is an assertion of “be good” and “do good” in business. Ethical business practices has been a blessing to the enterprises as it ensures faith in society ,government trust ,business partners trust .on the other hand unethical business pra...

  10. The relationship between technological innovations and business cycles in the transition economy of China%我国转型经济中技术创新与经济周期关系研究

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    吴晓波; 张超群; 窦伟

    2011-01-01

    The relationship between technological innovations and business cycles in China' s transition economy is checked.First, existing relevant literature is reviewed to justify the existence of such relationship; second, statistical data is used to show the characteristics of China' s business cycles; third, beth GDP and patents data are adopted to explain the relationship between innovations and business cycles on the basis of the literature; fourth, the special transition economy of China is taken as a powerfid contextual factor and its effects are studied. It is concluded that technological innovation is the very fundamental cause of business cycles, but institutional innovation is an important conditional factor. Therefore, the recommandations that push forward technological innovation strongly, and make institutions keep pace with are made.%本文主要分析了在中国转型经济环境中技术创新与经济周期的关系.首先,回顾现有文献以证实这种关系的存在;第二,利用统计数据展示我国经济周期的特点;第三,在文献基础上,利用我国GDP和专利数据来解释技术创新和经济周期的关系;第四,基于我国转型经济的事实,将其作为背景因素来研究其影响;最后,我们认为技术创新是促使经济周期运行的最终原因,同时制度创新在其中起到了约束作用.必须在鼓励技术创新的同时,保持制度的及时跟进.

  11. Sewage Purification Business Process Management

    OpenAIRE

    Esad Ahmetagić; Blaženka Piuković; Dušan Lukić

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents the current level of drainage and sewage purification facilities built in the Autonomous Province of Vojvodina, a territorial unit of the Republic of Serbia. It also points out the issues related to organized business management in companies involved in this business.The management of business processes in sewage purification involves a comprehensive cycle: business organizing process, issues of standard, investments, workforce, and information system design as factors in ...

  12. Mediating Business

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    "Mediating Business" is a study of the expansion of business journalism. Building on evidence from Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden, "Mediating Business" is a comparative and multidisciplinary study of one of the major transformations of the mass media and the realm of business - nationally and...... globally. The book explores the history of key innovations and innovators in the business press. It analyzes changes in the discourse of business journalism associated with the growth in business news and the development of new ways of framing business issues and events. Finally, it examines the...... organizational implications of the increased media visibility of business and, in particular, the development of corporate governance and media relations....

  13. Business Plan

    OpenAIRE

    Neterda, Karel

    2012-01-01

    The objective of the diploma thesis is aimed at business plan for real estate agency. Theoretical part of the thesis focuses on basic definitions regarding new company establishment. As follows: business laws, legal form of companies, business grants and structure of the business plan. Practical part describes a business plan for real estate agency and evaluate the business environment and current competition through these methods: Porter Five Force Model, SWOT -- and PEST analyses. Further, ...

  14. Business process management

    OpenAIRE

    Hantry F.; Papazoglou M.; Van Den Heuvel W.-J.; Haque R.; Whelan E.; Carroll N.; Karastoyanova D.; Leymann F.; Nikolaou C.; Lammersdorf W.

    2009-01-01

    Background. A feature of teaching IT-cycle subjects at economic universities is that the technologies which are needed to teach students are constantly updated. This relates to the fact that the market of IT-products is rapidly changing. At the moment a new class of information systems Business Process Management Suite (BPMS) has appeared. It allows to manage business processes at a whole new level. Nowadays BPM is becoming more popular, and that is why students of economic universities shoul...

  15. Innovating Platform Business Models

    OpenAIRE

    Moser, Daniel; Gassmann, Oliver

    2016-01-01

    Digitalization, connected products and services, and shortening innovation cycles are widely discussed topics in management practice and theory and demand for new concepts. Platforms are such a concept and find successively entry into a growing number of companies. However, research did not yet address how business models for platforms can be innovated. Thus, we build on a multi-case study and analyze how three major companies, Amazon, Apple and Google innovated their business models. We foun...

  16. Family Business and Careers: Classic and Contemporary Issues.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lucaccini, Luigi F.; Muscat, Eugene J.

    2001-01-01

    Presents models and life-cycle stages of family businesses and issues that have an impact on family business careers. Addresses the roles of career counselors and human resource professionals in supporting family businesses. (SK)

  17. Transportation Business Plan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Transportation Business Plan is a step in the process of procuring the transportation system. It sets the context for business strategy decisions by providing pertinent background information, describing the legislation and policies governing transportation under the NWPA, and describing requirements of the transportation system. Included in the document are strategies for procuring shipping casks and transportation support services. In the spirit of the NWPA directive to utilize the private sector to the maximum extent possible, opportunities for business ventures are obvious throughout the system development cycle

  18. Business plan

    OpenAIRE

    Monakov, Victor

    2011-01-01

    The aim of this bachelor's thesis is to prepare a business plan for web design courses in Prague and feasibility & efficiency evaluation of this type of business. In the theoretical part of my bachelor's thesis, I focus on important terms, structure and aspects of a business plan. In the practical part, I apply theoretical knowledge and create a real business plan.

  19. Issues to Consider before Licensing Technology to a Start-Up: Mitigating Risk with Early Planning for the Entire Business Cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    LaBarge, Jeffrey H.

    2005-01-01

    If done correctly, licensing technology to a start-up company provides a great opportunity for a university to commercialize its technology and generate good will. If done incorrectly, however, the venture may jeopardize the technology's value and adversely affect the university's reputation within the business and academic communities. Before…

  20. Business intelligence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cebotarean Elena

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available Business intelligence (BI refers to computer-based techniques used in spotting, digging-out, and analyzing business data, such as sales revenue by products and/or departments, or by associated costs and incomes. BI technologies provide historical, current, and predictive views of business operations. Common functions of business intelligence technologies are reporting, online analytical processing, analytics, data mining, business performance management, benchmarking, text mining, and predictive analytics. Business intelligence aims to support better business decision-making. Thus a BI system can be called a decision support system (DSS. Though the term business intelligence is sometimes used as a synonym for competitive intelligence, because they both support decision making, BI uses technologies, processes, and applications to analyze mostly internal, structured data and business processes while competitive intelligence gathers, analyzes and disseminates information with a topical focus on company competitors. Business intelligence understood broadly can include the subset of competitive intelligence.

  1. Linguistic Refactoring of Business Process Models

    OpenAIRE

    Pittke, Fabian

    2015-01-01

    In the past decades, organizations had to face numerous challenges due to intensifying globalization and internationalization, shorter innovation cycles and growing IT support for business. Business process management is seen as a comprehensive approach to align business strategy, organization, controlling, and business activities to react flexibly to market changes. For this purpose, business process models are increasingly utilized to document and redesign relevant parts of the organization...

  2. Playful Business

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lund, Morten; Hansen, Poul H. Kyvsgård; Nielsen, Louise Møller

    2011-01-01

    ” The term business model can be defined as a business concept that has been put into practice. The increase in dynamics in markets, technology, economies etc. challenge the requirements to make consistent and synchronized decisions on which business models to develop and implement. Complexity...... efficiently. This paper describes initial experiences of facilitating business model mapping or business model innovation by game-like setups.”...

  3. Innovation Strategy for Business to Business Market Penetration

    OpenAIRE

    Leonel Cezar Rodrigues; Emerson Antonio Maccari; Fernando Cesar Lenzi

    2012-01-01

    Strategies must align innovation capabilities to foster business model, since it mediates between the technology and the economic platforms domain. Here we consider the elements influential to technology innovation process in the context of a business to business technology-driven enterprise, considered within the perspective of technology maturity and organizational life cycle. The study subject was the Operacional Têxtil Ltda, a Brazilian textile systems automation enterprise, serving Latin...

  4. Business process management in a SAP-based information system

    OpenAIRE

    Završnik, Gašper

    2011-01-01

    This thesis deals with business process management, SAP information system and SAP Netweaver Composition Environment tool. The content is divided in three main area. In first we try to explain foundations of business process management, like definition of business process, basic principles of business process management, business process life-cycle, designing and executing business processes. Two standards are emphasized: business process modeling notation and service-oriented arhitecture. T...

  5. Business continuity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This presentation deals with the following keypoints: Information Technology (IT) Business Continuity and Recovery essential for any business; lessons learned after Sept. 11 event; Detailed planning, redundancy and testing being the key elements for probability estimation of disasters

  6. Business analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Paul, Debra; Cadle, James

    2010-01-01

    Throughout the business world, public, private and not-for-profit organisations face huge challenges. Business analysts must respond by developing practical, creative and financially sound solutions. This excellent guide gives them the necessary tools. It supports everyone wanting to achieve university and industry qualifications in business analysis and information systems. It is particularly beneficial for those studying for ISEB qualifications in Business Analysis. Some important additions since the first edition (2006): the inclusion of new techniques such as Ishikawa diagrams and spaghe

  7. E-Business: The Business Officer's Business.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olson, Mark A.

    2001-01-01

    Contends e-business is particularly the domain of college and university business officers, with today's officers facing an unprecedented opportunity to exercise a critical leadership role in the deployment of advanced information technology solutions on campus. Describes relevant issues and advances, and presents ten initiatives that business…

  8. BUSINESS ETHICS

    OpenAIRE

    Nelu BURCEA; Croitoru, Ion

    2014-01-01

    Through this study we seek to explore the concept of business ethics, in those aspects that we consider to be essential and concrete. We started from a few questions: Could the two concepts be compatible? If not, why not? If yes, could they be complementary? How real is the use of ethics in the profits of a business? How can be business ethics be exemplified and what principles are essential in doing business? How does the business environment react to the concept? These are some of the eleme...

  9. Business support within business incubators

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ratinho, Tiago; Harms, Rainer; Groen, Aard

    2009-01-01

    Business incubators (BI) have been established worldwide as tools for company creation and small businesses support. BIs claim to help their tenants by providing them with the optimal conditions for increasing early stage survival. Practitioners and researchers agree that business support is a cruci

  10. INTEGRATED CORPORATE STRUCTURE LIFE CYCLE MANAGEMENT MODELING AND ORGANIZATION

    OpenAIRE

    Naumenko, M.; Morozova, L.

    2011-01-01

    Integrated business structure presented as complementary pool of its participants skills. The methodical approach to integrated business structure life cycle modeling proposed. Recommendations of enterprises life cycles stages correlate are submitted.

  11. Business plan

    OpenAIRE

    Bekesheva, Karina

    2013-01-01

    This Bachelor`s thesis is a business plan of the event agency. It consists of two parts: theoretical and practical. Theoretical part is based on theory from books and other re-sources. In theoretical part there are some definitions about entrepreneurship, business plan and some strategic analyses tools. In addition, it includes the history of entrepre-neurship in Kazakhstan. Practical part is focused on creation the business plan. It in-volves some external and internal analyses, marketing st...

  12. Business plan

    OpenAIRE

    Poulová, Markéta

    2012-01-01

    The subject of this thesis is to handle the business of the project for the already existing Goat farm High – for Cross breeding goats, engaged in the production of goat's milk and its subsequent processing into dairy products. The work is divided into theoretical and practical part. The theoretical part of the work defines the theoretical definition of business project and its individual parts. There are defined the basic features of the business project, characterized by the concept of r...

  13. Macroeconomic factors that affected business cycles before the 50s, after the 80s and during the intermediate period: empirical findings on the US economy

    OpenAIRE

    Vergos, Konstantinos; Christopoulos, A.; Kosteletou, L.

    2010-01-01

    The aim of this paper is twofold. On the one hand, it is investigated which is the effect of macroeconomic factors in income growth, as defined by IS-LM, and on the other hand it is examined which is the relation between these factors and economic cycles. The aim of this paper goes further and examines whether the magnitude of the effect of these factors to GDP growth remains intact over time. The examination periods includes the years 1930-1949, 1950-1979 and 1980-2008. According to the resu...

  14. Disrupting Business

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cox, Geoff; Bazzichelli, Tatiana

    Disruptive Business explores some of the interconnections between art, activism and the business concept of disruptive innovation. With a backdrop of the crisis of financial capitalism, austerity cuts in the cultural sphere, the idea is to focus on potential art strategies in relation to a broken...... economy. In a perverse way, we ask whether this presents new opportunities for cultural producers to achieve more autonomy over their production process. If it is indeed possible, or desirable, what alternative business models emerge? The book is concerned broadly with business as material for reinvention...

  15. Feeding the nuclear fuel cycle with a long term view; AREVA's front-end business units, uranium mining, UF6 conversion and isotopic enrichment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    As a leading provider of technological solutions for nuclear power generation and electricity transmission, the AREVA group has the unique capability of offering a fully integrated fuel supply, when requested by its customers. At the core of the AREVA group, COGEMA Front End Division is an essential part of the overall fuel supply chain. Composed of three Business Units and gathering several subsidiaries and joint 'ventures, this division enjoys several leading positions as shown by its market shares and historical production records. Current Uranium market evolutions put the natural uranium supply under focus. The uranium conversion segment also recently revealed some concerning evolutions. And no doubt, the market pressure will soon be directed also at the enrichment segment. Looking towards the long term, AREVA strongly believes that a nuclear power renewal is needed, especially to help limiting green house effect gas release. Therefore, to address future supplies needed to fuel the existing fleet of nuclear power plants, but also new ones, the AREVA group is planning very significant investments to build new facilities in all the three front-end market segments. As far as uranium mining is concerned, these new mines will be based upon uranium reserves of outstanding quality. As for uranium conversion and enrichment, two large projects will be based on the most advanced technologies. This paper is aimed at recalling COGEMA Front End Division experience, the current status of its plants and operating entities and will provide a detailed overview of its major projects. (authors)

  16. Sewage Purification Business Process Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Esad Ahmetagić

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the current level of drainage and sewage purification facilities built in the Autonomous Province of Vojvodina, a territorial unit of the Republic of Serbia. It also points out the issues related to organized business management in companies involved in this business.The management of business processes in sewage purification involves a comprehensive cycle: business organizing process, issues of standard, investments, workforce, and information system design as factors in establishing an effective organization of business processes. The definition of gap existing between the current approach to organizing business activities and the need to establish an approach based on knowledge, information technologies, and effective business process management points to the necessity for organization redesign and standard definition in business process management. Sewage purification business process management in Vojvodina, the Republic of Serbia has been elaborated through theoretical presentation and a practical example realized by electronic ISO 9001:2008 system of quality management in public water utility company JKP "Vodokanal" Sombor.

  17. Business valuation

    OpenAIRE

    Kropáček, Matěj

    2012-01-01

    The diploma thesis is concerning the problematic of business valuation of Nestlé Česko. The estimated value of the company refers to 31. 12. 2012. Within business valuation, diploma thesis comprises several analyses such as SWOT analysis, PEST analysis, Porter five forces analysis and financial analysis. The yield method of discounted free cash flow to the firm (FCFF) was applied to the business valuation. The comparison of company Nestlé Česko with its closest competitor in terms of basic fi...

  18. Business Law

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Föh, Kennet Fischer; Mandøe, Lene; Tinten, Bjarke

    Business Law is a translation of the 2nd edition of Erhvervsjura - videregående uddannelser. It is an educational textbook for the subject of business law. The textbook covers all important topic?s within business law such as the Legal System, Private International Law, Insolvency Law, Contract l......, Instruments of debt and other claims, Sale of Goods and real estate, Charges, mortgages and pledges, Guarantees, Credit agreements, Tort Law, Product liability and Insurance, Company law, Market law, Labour Law, Family Law and Law of Inheritance....

  19. The Service Sentiment Indicator - A Business Climate Indicator for the German Business - Related Services Sector

    OpenAIRE

    Kaiser, Ulrich; Buscher, Herbert S.

    1999-01-01

    No other area of the German economy has developed so emphatically in the past ten years as that of business-related services. Regardless their growing importance, business-related services still play only a minor role in official statistics. Above all, official statistics do not provide up-to-date information on the state of the business cycle of this sector. In a situation where such quantitative information is lacking, data obtained from business surveys give important guidelines to the sta...

  20. Environmental Business

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This book introduces business strategy to save the earth, which are foundation of system in the company, collection of disposable camera, resort which don't destroy environment, core strategy of item project, cutback of Freon gas, production of plastic which is degraded, export of pollution prevention technology, increasing waste and changing waste, rule on construction waste, responsibility of business and waste problems, recycling of aluminum can and responsibility on environmental problems.

  1. Business activities

    OpenAIRE

    Vosátková, Jitka

    2013-01-01

    This thesis deals with current issues in Small Businesses individuals in the City of Prague. The theoretical part of the thesis is in outline current legislation and legal literature on the conditions for carrying on a trade, rights and obligations of entrepreneurs of and procedure for obtaining a trade license, during the trade, trade controls, administrative offenses, termination and cancellation of trade license . The practical part is characterized by a small business environment an...

  2. Business plan

    OpenAIRE

    Triandafilu, Aneta

    2012-01-01

    The goal of the bachelor thesis is to create a business plan for an emerging company - HEALTHY GARDEN, s.r.o, which is a restaurant with main focus on providing healthy food and gluten free food. The purpose of the plan is verification of the project's feasibility and its competitiveness on the current market. The thesis is divided into two parts - theoretic and practical. The first part explains theoretical background of business plan creation, its implication, purpose and structure. It also...

  3. Operational and real-time Business Intelligence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniela Ioana SANDU

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available A key component of a company’s IT framework is a business intelligence (BI system. BI enables business users to report on, analyze and optimize business operations to reduce costs and increase revenues. Organizations use BI for strategic and tactical decision making where the decision-making cycle may span a time period of several weeks (e.g., campaign management or months (e.g., improving customer satisfaction.Competitive pressures coming from a very dynamic business environment are forcing companies to react faster to changing business conditions and customer requirements. As a result, there is now a need to use BI to help drive and optimize business operations on a daily basis, and, in some cases, even for intraday decision making. This type of BI is usually called operational business intelligence and real-time business intelligence.

  4. AREVA Business and Strategy overview April, 2010

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This document is a series of slides presenting AREVA's activities in the framework of CO2-free power generation: 2005-2009 Group Performance; 2010-2012 Development Plan (Build 1/3 of the new nuclear generating capacity, Secure the fuel cycle for current and future customers, Expand renewable energies offering, Ensure strong profitable growth in the T and D Division); Performances and objectives by division (Front-End, Mines and Enrichment, Reactors and Service, renewable energies, Back-End); latest key financial results; Appendices (Financial, Nuclear power, Mining business details, Conversion/Enrichment/Fuel business details, Reactors and Services business details, Back-End business details, Renewable business details)

  5. Ontology-based metrics computation for business process analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Carlos Pedrinaci; John Domingue

    2009-01-01

    Business Process Management (BPM) aims to support the whole life-cycle necessary to deploy and maintain business processes in organisations. Crucial within the BPM lifecycle is the analysis of deployed processes. Analysing business processes requires computing metrics that can help determining the health of business activities and thus the whole enterprise. However, the degree of automation currently achieved cannot support the level of reactivity and adaptation demanded by businesses. In thi...

  6. Research on the Evolution of Internet Enterprise Business Model in its Life Cycle --A Case Study of Tencent%互联网企业发展过程中商业模式的演变——基于腾讯的案例研究

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    罗小鹏; 刘莉

    2012-01-01

    互联网企业的商业模式具有较强的可塑性,企业应在发展过程中根据内外部环境的变化对商业模式进行创新。本文运用商业模式“3—4~8”理论,以腾讯公司为目标企业,对该公司在生命周期三个阶段的商业模式创新及演变进行案例研究。研究表明,腾讯在创业期、成长期和成熟期不同发展阶段,商业模式表现出独特的演变路径和鲜明的特征,商业模式的创新提升了公司的价值和竞争力,其成功经验为我国互联网企业提供了启示与借鉴。%Internet enterprise business model has strong plasticity, entrepreneurs should innovate the business model according to the change of internal and external environment. Business model is an architectural structure that organization position and integrate its value, strategy and operation system into a organic integrity, and through offering a series of products or services to realize its goal. By reviewing the papers, we can find that related research of business model is in the ascendant in recent 10 years. In the thesis, We adopted case study method, based on 3 -4 -8 business model theory, chose a iconic internet company Tencent Holding Co. Ltd( short for Tencent) as the object. From the enterprise life cycle perspective, We explored the innovation of Tencent's business model, induction conditions, characteristic, and the evolution path in different period. Concluded innovation type of business model, and summarized the inspirations that internet enterprises should follow when innovating their business model. Our research was carried out by three steps: Firstly, we reviewed the existing theories at home and abroad, summarize the definition of business model, and presented my definition. Then, used"3 -4 -8" business model architectural structures for reference, followed the modular deconstruction thinking, investigated and executed data analysis on 23 modular indexes. On the basis

  7. A business case method for business models

    OpenAIRE

    Meertens, L.O.; Starreveld, E.; Iacob, M.E.; Nieuwenhuis, L.J.M.; Shishkov, Boris

    2013-01-01

    Intuitively, business cases and business models are closely connected. However, a thorough literature review revealed no research on the combination of them. Besides that, little is written on the evaluation of business models at all. This makes it difficult to compare different business model alternatives and choose the best one. In this article, we develop a business case method to objectively compare business models. It is an eight-step method, starting with business drivers and ending wit...

  8. Draft Transportaion Business Plan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management (OCRWM) is responsible for establishing a transportation system to support shipment of spent fuel and high-level radioactive waste to repositories and storage facilities developed under the Nuclear Waste Policy Act of 1982 (NWPA). An element that assists in fulfilling that responsibility is a business plan for acquiring and operating a transportation system. The Draft Transportation Business Plan is an interim step in the process of procuring the transportation system. It sets the context for business strategy decisions by providing pertinent background information, describing the legislation and policies governing transportation under the NWPA, and with establishing the transportation system. It also serves as an instrument for initiating communication between OCRWM and other interested parties. Included in the docuument are strategies for procuring shipping casks and transportation support services. Additionally, in the spirit of the NWPA directive to utilize the private sector to the maximum extent possible, opportunities for business ventures are obvious throughout the system development cycle

  9. Business valuation

    OpenAIRE

    Jinoch, Pavel

    2013-01-01

    The subject of this thesis is based on the selected method of determining the value of the company Bohemia lázně a.s. The theoretical part of this work defines the value of the company, the reasons for the valuation and the procedures used in business valuation. Moreover this work provides an overview of the different methods. Most attention is aimed at earning methods that are currently being used the most. The experimental part contains the characteristics of the object of business, organiz...

  10. Family business

    OpenAIRE

    KLUZÁKOVÁ, Lucie

    2012-01-01

    This thesis focuses on family business companies and above all on their problem of succession planning. For the purposes of this work, I have chosen a family business company that is owned by two shareholders. Both shareholders are going to leave the company within next 5 to 10 years. The thesis deals with the succession plan of both shareholders and this concerning the rate of preparedness as well as the rate of coordination of both plans. Prior to the research, two hypotheses were fixed. Th...

  11. Small Business Development Center

    Data.gov (United States)

    Small Business Administration — Small Business Development Centers (SBDCs) provide assistance to small businesses and aspiring entrepreneurs throughout the United States and its territories. SBDCs...

  12. Small Business Size Standards

    Data.gov (United States)

    Small Business Administration — Certain government programs, such as SBA loan programs and contracting opportunities, are reserved for small business concerns. In order to qualify, businesses must...

  13. Business Anthropology

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Moeran, Brian

    2015-01-01

    This essay outlines the overall scope and location of business anthropology within the overall field of the discipline. It outlines its foundations as an applied form of anthropology in early developments in the United States (in particular, in Western Electric's Hawthorne Project and the Human...

  14. Unfinished Business

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tuckett, Alan

    2011-01-01

    Adult learning is not a tidy business: adults fit learning into the spaces left by the other demands on complex lives, and into the spaces left in administrative structures overwhelmingly designed for other people. No simple metric can capture adults' diverse purposes and achievements, and no single programme can capture the full range of things…

  15. Business link

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2010-01-01

    Baotou Hongbo technology Co.,Ltd was registered in Baotou Rare Earth High-Tech Development Zone in 2008.The company is integrated with scientific research and development,production and trade business.Main products include individual and mixed light rare earth salts,oxides and metals,phosphors and so on.

  16. Business Leksikon

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Sandro

    2002-01-01

    This review article deals with a specialised dictionary recently introduced to the Danish market. It covers traditional business subjects and is designed for semi-experts and laypeople. Through Danish definitions and English, French and German equivalents, it aims at fulfilling the functions text...

  17. Business Blooming

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    MARK GRAHAM

    2008-01-01

    @@ Florist Sebastien Lathuile was in no doubt of the business potential in Shanghai from the moment he arrived on a personal visit, some five years ago. The Frenchman returned immediately home to London,where he had been working,put his flat on the market, and began making plans to set up in the east-coast city.

  18. Business environment

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Dušek, Libor; Fungáčová, Zuzana; Hakobyan, Anush; Hanousek, Jan; Ortmann, Andreas; Semerák, V.; Sklenář, P.; Svítková, Katarína; Vychodil, Ondřej; Wertlen, B.; Zemčík, Petr

    Prague : Charles University in Prague, 2005, s. 33-45. ISBN 80-7343-058-4 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z70850503 Keywords : Czech Republic * business environment Subject RIV: AH - Economics http://www.cerge-ei.cz/pdf/books/CR2005.pdf

  19. Business Intelligence

    OpenAIRE

    Strejčková, Lucie

    2001-01-01

    Cílem této bakalářské práce je seznámení s Business Intelligence a zpracování vývojového trendu, který ovlivňuje podobu řešení Business Intelligence v podniku ? Business Activity Monitoring. Pro zpracování tohoto tématu byla použita metoda studia odborných pramenů, a to jak v českém, tak v anglickém jazyce. Hlavním přínosem práce je ucelený, v českém jazyce zpracovaný materiál pojednávající o Business Activity Monitoring. Práce je rozdělena do šesti hlavních kapitol. Prvních pět je věnováno p...

  20. Business History

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Per H.

    2012-01-01

    This article argues that a cultural and narrative perspective can enrich the business history field, encourage new and different questions and answers, and provide new ways of thinking about methods and empirical material. It discusses what culture is and how it relates to narratives. Taking...

  1. Promotion of uranium enrichment business

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Committee on Nuclear Power has studied on the basic nuclear power policy, establishing its five subcommittees, entrusted by the Ministry of Nternational Trade and Industry. The results of examination by the subcommittee on uranium enrichment business are given along with a report in this connection by the Committee. In order to establish the nuclear fuel cycle, the aspect of uranium enrichment is essential. The uranium enrichment by centrifugal process has proceeded steadily in Power Reactor and Nuclear Fuel Development Corporation. The following matters are described: the need for domestic uranium enrichment, the outlook for overseas enrichment services and the schedule for establishing domestic enrichment business, the current state of technology development, the position of the prototype enrichment plant, the course to be taken to establish enrichment business the main organization operating the prototype and commercial plants, the system of supplying centrifuges, the domestic conversion of natural uranium the subsidies for uranium enrichment business. (J.P.N.)

  2. Substantive Cause of Macroeconomic Fluctuations:Real Business Cycle (RBC) Theory%宏观经济波动的实体性成因--真实经济周期(RBC)理论评析

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王征

    2014-01-01

    Real business cycle theory belongs to the Liberal School of the western economics. It breaks through the monetary cycle theory, and takes the accident real impacts such as the technology impact from supply aspect as the cause of economic lfuctuations, and denies the views that economic lfuctuation is a deviation from the long-term economic growth trend and macro economy can be divided into long-term and short-term. RBC theory insists on currency neutral position and against the government's intervention policies. It illustrates the macroeconomic lfuctuations by the orthodox microeconomic theory, and changes people's understanding on the reasons for economic cyclical lfuctuation, and then transcends the monetary doctrine and new classical macroeconomics. We could say that RBC theory is major development of liberalism economics since the 1980s .%真实经济周期理论属于西方经济学中的经济自由流派。它突破了货币周期理论,把来自供给方面的技术冲击等意外真实冲击看作是经济波动的根源;认为经济波动不是对长期经济增长趋势的偏离,否定把宏观经济分为长期和短期的观点;坚持货币中性主张;反对政府的干预政策。它以正统的微观经济理论来说明宏观经济波动,改变了人们对经济周期性波动原因的理解,超越了货币主义和新古典宏观经济学,是20世纪80年代以来自由主义经济学的重大发展。

  3. 基于微观经济基础的真实商业周期理论分析——2004年诺贝尔经济学奖对中国的启示%The Theoretical Analysis of Real Business Cycle on the Base of Microeconomic Foundation--The Revelation of Nobel Economics Award in 2004 for China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    李建阳; 朱启贵

    2005-01-01

    The 2004 Bank of Sweden Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel goes to the researchers whose contribution concerns two closely related areas of macroeconomic research: the time consistency problem of macroeconomic policy making and the driving forces behind business cycles. This paper gives a detailed and thorough introduction to the methodologies and contributions of the prizewinning theories. In the context of political and economic environment, this paper demonstrates the application possibility of Kydland and Prescott's analysis in China。

  4. Global business cycles: convergence or decoupling?

    OpenAIRE

    Kose, M. Ayhan; Otrok, Christopher M; Eswar S. Prasad

    2008-01-01

    This paper analyzes the evolution of the degree of global cyclical interdependence over the period 1960-2005. We categorize the 106 countries in our sample into three groups -- industrial countries, emerging markets, and other developing economies. Using a dynamic factor model, we then decompose macroeconomic fluctuations in key macroeconomic aggregates -- output, consumption, and investment -- into different factors. These are: (i) a global factor, which picks up fluctuations that are common...

  5. Stock Market Volatility and the Business Cycle

    OpenAIRE

    Burkhard Raunig; Johann Scharler

    2010-01-01

    In this paper we provide a review of the literature on the link between stock market volatility and aggregate demand. In particular, we focus on the implications of the so-called uncertainty hypothesis according to which it is primarily the uncertainty associated with stock market fluctuations that influences aggregate demand. Empirical studies find that stock market volatility indeed feeds back into the real economy.

  6. Precautionary Saving over the Business Cycle

    OpenAIRE

    Challe, Edouard; Ragot, Xavier

    2013-01-01

    In this paper, we present a tractable model of time-varying precautionary saving behaviour due to changes in uninsured unemployment risk. In our model, agents facing incomplete markets and borrowing constraints respond to changes in labour market conditions by altering their buffer stock of precautionary wealth, with a direct impact on current consumption. The model is calibrated to match the evidence on the share of permanent income consumers and the distribution of wealth in the U.S. econom...

  7. Housing, Credit Markets and the Business Cycle

    OpenAIRE

    Feldstein, Martin S.

    2007-01-01

    The housing sector is now (September 2007) at the root of three distinct but related problems: (1) a sharp decline in house prices and the related fall in home building; (2) a subprime mortgage problem that has triggered a substantial widening of all credit spreads and the freezing of much of the credit markets; and (3) a decline in home equity loans and mortgage refinancing that could cause greater declines in consumer spending. Each of these could by itself be powerful enough to cause an ec...

  8. Changing Credit Limits, Changing Business Cycles

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Henrik; Ravn, Søren Hove; Santoro, Emiliano

    credit-constrained agents. Starting from low LTV ratios, a progressive relaxation of credit constraints leads to both higher macroeconomic volatility and stronger comovement between debt and real variables. This pattern reverses at LTV ratios not far from those currently observed in many advanced...... economies, since credit constraints become non-binding more often. As expansionary shocks may make credit constraints non-binding, while contractionary shocks cannot, recessions become deeper than expansions. The non-monotonic relationship between credit market conditions and macroeconomic fluctuations...

  9. Essays on production and business cycles

    OpenAIRE

    Sintes Vinent, Josep; Kohli, Ulrich

    2005-01-01

    The thesis is organized into three chapters corresponding to three complete articles. In chapter 1, we examine empirical regularities of the main Spanish macroeconomic time series in a way that is comparable across series. Statistics and comovements of the relations between each series and aggregate output are presented from three different perspectives. In chapter 2, we analyse the Phillips relation between inflation and the unemployment rate in Switzerland. We estimate the NAIRU as a parame...

  10. Essays on production and business cycles

    OpenAIRE

    Sintes Vinent, Josep

    2004-01-01

    The thesis is organized into three chapters corresponding to three complete articles. In chapter 1, we examine empirical regularities of the main Spanish macroeconomic time series in a way that is comparable across series. Statistics and comovements of the relations between each series and aggregate output are presented from three different perspectives. In chapter 2, we analyse the Phillips relation between inflation and the unemployment rate in Switzerland. We estimate the NAIRU as a parame...

  11. Financing asset sales and business cycles

    OpenAIRE

    Arnold, Marc; Hackbarth, Dirk; Puhan, Tatjana-Xenia

    2014-01-01

    This paper analyzes the decision of firms to sell assets to fund investments (financing asset sales). For a sample of U.S. manufacturing firms during the 1971-2010 period, we document new stylized facts about financing asset sales that cannot be explained by traditional motives for selling assets, such as financial distress or financing constraints. Using a structural model of financing, investment, and macroeconomic risk, we show that financing asset sales attenuate the debt overhang problem...

  12. Manufacturing employment, productivity and the business cycle

    OpenAIRE

    Tatom, John

    2004-01-01

    The U.S. manufacturing sector has become the poster child of the jobless recovery, the latest victim of the Bubble Economy. On Labor Day 2003 President Bush called for the creation of a new position of Assistant Secretary for Manufacturing in the Department of Commerce. The National Association of Manufacturers has called for a new strategy for renewal of U.S. manufacturing, referring to the sector as being in “jeopardy.” Congress is even considering legislation, such as the American Jobs Cre...

  13. Human Capital and Business Cycle Persistence

    OpenAIRE

    Roberto Perli; Plutarchos Sakellaris

    1996-01-01

    In this paper we show that a two sector model with human capital is able to generate persistence in output growth comparable to that observed in the postwar U.S. data. The key feature is a relatively low elasticity of substitution between human capital and raw labor in the production of human capital.

  14. Job Search Behavior over the Business Cycle

    OpenAIRE

    Mukoyama, Toshihiko; Patterson, Christina; Şahin, Ayşegül

    2013-01-01

    We create a novel measure of job search effort starting in 1994 by exploiting the overlap between the Current Population Survey and the American Time Use Survey. We examine the cyclical behavior of aggregate job search effort using time series and cross-state variation and find that it is countercyclical. About half of the countercyclical movement is explained by a cyclical shift in the observable characteristics of the unemployed. Individual responses to labor market conditions and drops in ...

  15. Small Business Innovations (Cryostat)

    Science.gov (United States)

    1991-01-01

    General Pneumatics Corporation, Scottsdale, AZ, developed an anti- clogging cryostat that liquifies gases by expansion for high pressure through a nozzle to produce cryorefrigeration based on their Kennedy Space Center Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) work to develop a Joule-Thomson (JT) expansion valve that is less susceptible to clogging by particles or condensed contaminants in the flow than a non-contaminating compressor in a closed cycle Linde-Hampson cryocooler used to generate cryogenic cooling for infrared sensors, super conductors, supercooled electronics and cryosurgery.

  16. Synchronizing Business & Systems with Business Objects

    OpenAIRE

    Saha, Pallab; Srinivasan, R.

    2001-01-01

    More and more businesses are becoming highly dependent on their information systems (IS) to operate and manage themselves. This necessitates a formal methodology to express business concepts, business processes and events that both business managers and IS professionals can understand and communicate with. The result of this understanding can be quick correction of business systems and operations that are more efficient. This paper introduces the concepts and uses of business objects and outl...

  17. BUSINESS ECOSYSTEMS VS BUSINESS DIGITAL ECOSYSTEMS

    OpenAIRE

    Marinela Lazarica

    2006-01-01

    E-business is often described as the small organisations’ gateway to global business and markets. The adoption of Internet-based technologies for e-business is a continuous process, with sequential steps of evolution. The latter step in the adoption of Internet-based technologies for business, where the business services and the software components are supported by a pervasive software environment, which shows an evolutionary and self-organising behaviour are named digital business ecosyste...

  18. BUSINESS ECOSYSTEMS VS BUSINESS DIGITAL ECOSYSTEMS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marinela Lazarica

    2006-05-01

    Full Text Available E-business is often described as the small organisations’ gateway to global business and markets. The adoption of Internet-based technologies for e-business is a continuous process, with sequential steps of evolution. The latter step in the adoption of Internet-based technologies for business, where the business services and the software components are supported by a pervasive software environment, which shows an evolutionary and self-organising behaviour are named digital business ecosystems. The digital business ecosystems are characterized by intelligent software components and services, knowledge transfer, interactive training frameworks and integration of business processes and e-government models.

  19. Photovoltaic business

    OpenAIRE

    Štefan, Petr

    2011-01-01

    The work is focused on business photovoltaic performance as one of the alternative sources of electrical power. Theoretical part was created by quoting work up documents. Literature search was divided into several parts. The first part revolves around the solar radiation and its advantages and disadvantages. In the second part is speaking about the variations of using solar energy from heating the water to generate electric energy. It also deals with photovoltaic power plants in the world and...

  20. Social Business

    OpenAIRE

    Maria Cristina ENACHE

    2015-01-01

    The field of social business is growing rapidly and attracting increased attention from many sectors. The term itself shows up frequently in the media, is referenced by public officials, have become common on universities. The reasons behind the popularity of social entrepreneurship are many. On the most basic level, there’s something inherently interesting and appealing about entrepreneurs and the stories of why and how they do what they do. The interest in social entrepreneurship transcends...

  1. Business Leksikon

    OpenAIRE

    Nielsen, Sandro

    2002-01-01

    This review article deals with a specialised dictionary recently introduced to the Danish market. It covers traditional business subjects and is designed for semi-experts and laypeople. Through Danish definitions and English, French and German equivalents, it aims at fulfilling the functions text reception, text production, translation and knowledge acquisition. The main aspects addressed are presentation of lemmata, structure and presentation of definitions, grammatical information and diasy...

  2. Overall Insight into the Fashion Business

    OpenAIRE

    Hagelberg, Laura

    2015-01-01

    The aim of this thesis is to examine today’s fashion from a business perspective. In this thesis fashion business is examined through fashion history, fashion industry and life cycle, today’s fast fashion and also consumer behavior in fashion. This thesis is conducted for a Finnish fashion business, InStyle. InStyle is a family based fashion business operating mainly via online and monthly trade fairs. There is also a physical store in Savonlinna which sells InStyle brands. Though the ow...

  3. Business modelling agility: Turning ideas into business

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Heikkila, J.; Heikkila, M.; Bouwman, W.A.G.A.

    2015-01-01

    Business Model Innovation is attracting more and more attention from business as well as from academics. Business Model Innovation deals with both technological and knowledge related changes that either may disrupt or sustain existing product/market strategies. Timing of Business Model Innovation bo

  4. A business case method for business models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Meertens, L.O.; Starreveld, E.; Iacob, M.E.; Nieuwenhuis, L.J.M.; Shishkov, Boris

    2013-01-01

    Intuitively, business cases and business models are closely connected. However, a thorough literature review revealed no research on the combination of them. Besides that, little is written on the evaluation of business models at all. This makes it difficult to compare different business model alter

  5. Business-to-business electronic commerce

    OpenAIRE

    John Wenninger

    1999-01-01

    To improve efficiency, some large retailers, suppliers, and distributors have begun to conduct business-to-business commerce electronically. This practice could grow rapidly if the Internet becomes the primary low-cost network for such transactions. Before the Internet can fully support business-to-business commerce, however, companies must overcome several technological and security obstacles.

  6. Business ethics

    OpenAIRE

    Petráková, Helena

    2009-01-01

    This bachelor's thesis deals with the topic - business ethics. Concretely, it gives the example of ethics in the sphere of undertaker's. There are stated all of the needed terms and definitions. There is also said how ethics influenced people throw the history. Furthermore, you can find the difference between ethics and etiquette. These two terms are often misunderstood but they cohere. To make firms work well, you need to give them some rules. Code of ethics may be part of the solution.That ...

  7. Business development

    OpenAIRE

    Sousa, Alexandre Daniel Brito de

    2011-01-01

    Num mundo empresarial em constante mudança e cada vez mais competitivo e exigente, as empresas necessitam de profissionais que saibam não só adaptar-se a essa mudança, mas também identificar e aproveitar uma oportunidade de negócio quando ela surge. Um Business Developer faz isso mesmo – explora oportunidades de negócio. Idealmente numa empresa, um profissional de “BizDev” deve juntar competências nas áreas de Vendas, Marketing e Parcerias, acompanhando o desenvolvimento do produto que dev...

  8. An engineering approach to business model experimentation – an online investment research startup case study

    OpenAIRE

    Kijl, Björn; Boersma, Durk

    2010-01-01

    Every organization needs a viable business model. Strikingly, most of current literature is focused on business model design, whereas there is almost no attention for business model validation and implementation and related business model experimentation. The goal of the research as described in this paper is to develop a business model engineering tool for supporting business model management as a continuous design, validation and implementation cycle. The tool is applied to an online invest...

  9. Business Model Innovation

    OpenAIRE

    Dodgson, Mark; Gann, David; Phillips, Nelson; Massa, Lorenzo; Tucci, Christopher

    2014-01-01

    The chapter offers a broad review of the literature at the nexus between Business Models and innovation studies, and examines the notion of Business Model Innovation in three different situations: Business Model Design in newly formed organizations, Business Model Reconfiguration in incumbent firms, and Business Model Innovation in the broad context of sustainability. Tools and perspectives to make sense of Business Models and support managers and entrepreneurs in dealing with Business Model ...

  10. Research and Practice on the Whole Life Cycle Test Method in the Process of Continuous Business Evolution%业务持续演进过程中全生命周期测试方法的研究与实践

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王昊; 陈伯慧; 周文斌; 郭军

    2015-01-01

    How to guarantee quality in the process of continuous business evolution is an important problem in the China Unicom's information construction. This article proposes a set of whole business life cycle test method which includes the process of the whole business life cycle testing, agile cooperative mode, reusable testing assets, performance monitoring and early warning platform and so on from the aspects of process, management, technologies and tools. And it introduces the practice results based on the project of communication networks combination of Shenyang, Fushun and Tieling.%如何在业务系统持续演进过程中确保质量已经成为联通信息化建设中的关键问题.文章从过程、管理、技术和工具四个层面,提出一套在持续演进过程中业务全生命周期测试的方法,包括业务全生命周期测试过程、敏捷协作模式、可复用测试资产、性能监测预警平台等,并以沈抚铁并网项目为背景,介绍实践成果.

  11. Understanding the petrochemical cycle: Part 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fitness in the hydrocarbon processing industry (HPI) arena involves understanding and coping with business cycles: supply and demand. This becomes increasingly more important as the industry globalizes and matures. Competitive-edge thinking needs to look hard at the forces that influence business cycles. Recognition of potential pitfalls is very important when considering: future capacity expansion, mergers and acquisitions, market departure, plant closure, potential product substitution, etc. Understanding pricing mechanisms and the workings of hockey-stick profitability profiles help HPI operators endure cycle downturns and prepare plants to maximize profits for the next upswing. The paper discusses characteristic trends, cycles in the hydrocarbon processing industry, current conditions, and mitigating cycle effects

  12. The current state of the theory of cycles

    OpenAIRE

    Vittorio Marrama

    2013-01-01

    The article offers a review of modern business cycle theory as developed in the first half of XX century. Marrama analyses the extent of economic literature on these topics, pinpointing the main strands of thought and tools used by business cycle economists. The categorization is set forth according to the different methods adopted. Three of these categories are considered as the most important for understanding the current state of business cycle theory: cyclical aggregative models (using a ...

  13. On Developing Business Chinese.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hong, Wei

    1996-01-01

    Examines the significance of foreign languages for business, particularly Business Chinese, in the 1990s; its curriculum requirements; and the impact of business languages on international business. The article proposes a developmental plan for Business Chinese at the college level including goals, course materials, learning activities, and…

  14. Sosiaalinen media business to business -markkinoinnissa

    OpenAIRE

    Eskelinen, Mervi

    2009-01-01

    Opinnäytetyö käsittelee sosiaalisen median käyttöä business to business -markkinoinnissa. Sosiaalista mediaa tarkastellaan kirjallisuuden, verkkolähteiden ja kirjoittajan omien kokemuksien ja näkemyksien pohjalta. Sosiaalisen median soveltuvuutta business to business -markkinointiin käsitellään edellä mainittujen lähteiden lisäksi yrityshaastattelujen pohjalta. Tavoitteena on pohtia sosiaalinen median soveltuvuutta business to business -markkinointiin. Lisäksi tavoitteena on perustella sosiaa...

  15. Busy Americans

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    宫玉完

    2007-01-01

    In America,people are always in a hurry.You can see the people who are walking fast everywhere.They are so busy that they have no time to stay with their families.They work late and don’t get home until 7 or 8 at night.More than 50% of women work at full-time jobs.They do less childcare and don’t have enough time to prepare the food.That’s why"fast food"is so popular in America.People spend nearly half of their dollars on fast food.Fast food saves much time,but it is not good for health.

  16. PSYCHOLOGY OF FAMILY BUSINESS

    OpenAIRE

    Taylyakova, Feruzahon

    2014-01-01

    This article analyzes the basic psychological characteristics of family businesses. The author describes the psychological properties that contribute to improve individual and family businesses. The article also discusses mental properties adversely affect the development of a family business.

  17. Global Business Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rask, Morten

    insight from the literature about business models, international product policy, international entry modes and globalization into a conceptual model of relevant design elements of global business models, enabling global business model innovation to deal with differences in a downstream perspective...

  18. Analysis of Business Models

    OpenAIRE

    Slavik Stefan; Bednar Richard

    2014-01-01

    The term business model has been used in practice for few years, but companies create, define and innovate their models subconsciously from the start of business. Our paper is aimed to clear the theory about business model, hence definition and all the components that form each business. In the second part, we create an analytical tool and analyze the real business models in Slovakia and define the characteristics of each part of business model, i.e., customers, distribution, value, resour...

  19. BRANDING IN SMALL BUSINESS

    OpenAIRE

    Mihai Răzvan Constantin BARBU; Radu Florin OGARCĂ; Cătălin Mihail BARBU

    2010-01-01

    In this paper we analyzed the branding in small business. Using a desk research on Internet and the press we have identified the practices small businesses use to enhance their brand and the brand dynamics in small business. Our main contribution is that we tried to figure out the strategy of branding in small business. This need further to be investigated in order to understand how branding works in small business and to better capture the role of branding in small business.

  20. Business-to-Business -markkinointistrategia sosiaalisessa mediassa

    OpenAIRE

    Kähärä, Karri

    2011-01-01

    Tämä opinnäytetyö keskittyy markkinointistrategian kehittämiseen business-to-business -yritykselle sosiaalisissa medioissa tapahtuvaa markkinointia varten. Opinnäytetyössä tarkastellaan sosiaalisia medioita ja markkinointistrategian luomista eri kirjallisuus- ja verkkolähteiden avulla. Opinnäytetyön tavoitteena on selvittää sosiaalisten medioiden mahdollisuuksia business-to-business -markkinointia harjoittavalle yritykselle ja kehittää konkreettinen markkinointi-suunnitelma sosiaalisissa medi...

  1. Transforming Software Business Models into Business Processes

    OpenAIRE

    Schief, Markus; Bonakdar, Amir; Weiblen, Tobias

    2012-01-01

    Changed business models, such as induced by Software-as-a-Service, require an effective implementation in a firm's organization. This study clarifies the relation between business models as an implementation of a company's strategy, and business processes, as an abstraction of a company's operations. The presented transformation framework provides specific meaning to the industrial setting of a software vendor morphing to a SaaS model. Both underlying concepts, the business model and the valu...

  2. Achieving Business Process Flexibility with Business Rules

    OpenAIRE

    Eijndhoven, van, SJL Stef; Iacob, M.E.; Ponisio, M.L.

    2008-01-01

    Business processes used in networked business are often large and complex, which makes them difficult to manage and change. In this paper we address this lack of flexibility by proposing a solution that uses business rules and workflow patterns to model the variable parts of process flow, thus facilitating dynamic pattern composition in these areas. We argue that the increase in flexibility is justified by the fact that changes in a business process can be confined to the variable isolated pa...

  3. Business modelling agility: Turning ideas into business

    OpenAIRE

    Heikkila, J.; Heikkila, M.; Bouwman, W.A.G.A.

    2015-01-01

    Business Model Innovation is attracting more and more attention from business as well as from academics. Business Model Innovation deals with both technological and knowledge related changes that either may disrupt or sustain existing product/market strategies. Timing of Business Model Innovation both with regard to the right moment as well as speed of implementing competitive concepts becomes crucial. In this conceptual paper we discuss and evaluate possibilities for shortening the lead-time...

  4. Involving business users in business rules lifecycle

    OpenAIRE

    Thorževskij, Sašo

    2010-01-01

    Organizations operate in dynamic environments, which require continuous modifications of business policies. The latter also implies changes in business informatics, the basis for effective and prosperous operation. To answer to the constant need for modifications and adaptations, a new approach to information systems design and implementation has been developed, based on separating business rules from the rest of the information system. In such solutions, business rule execution is entrusted ...

  5. BUSINESS ENGLISH IN INTERCULTURAL BUSINESS COMMUNICATION

    OpenAIRE

    Adriana Teodorescu

    2011-01-01

    In the past few decades, Business English has become a true lingua franca in all global business communication contexts. The development and use of Business English went hand in hand with globalisation, the growth of multinational and transnational corporations, the fast development in communications technology, the emergence of new markets in developing countries, etc. The use of English at a global level in different business communication circumstances has led to the necessity of developin...

  6. Risky Business

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yarbrough, Katherine

    2015-01-01

    During my internship I worked on two major projects, recommending improvements for the Center's Risk Management Workshop and helping with the strategic planning efforts for Safety and Mission Assurance (S&MA). The risk management improvements is the key project I worked on this semester through my internship, while the strategic planning is the secondary assignment. S&MA Business Office covers both aspects in its delegation, getting both spans some of the work done in the office. A risk is a future event with a negative consequence that has some probability of occurring. Safety and Mission Assurance identifies, analyzes, plans, and tracks risk. The directorate offers the Center a Risk Management Workshop, and part of the ongoing efforts of S&MA is to make continuous improvements to the RM Workshop. By using the Project Management Institute's (PMI) Standard for Risk Management, I performed a gap analysis to make improvements for our materials. I benchmarked the PMI's Risk Management Standard, compared our Risk Management Workshop materials to PMI's standard, and identified any gaps in our material. My major findings were presented to the Business Office of S&MA for a decision on whether or not to incorporate the improvements. These suggestions were made by attending JSC working group meetings, Health, Safety and Environment (HSE) panel reviews and various risk review meetings. The improvements provide better understanding of risk management processes and enhanced risk tracking knowledge and skills. Risk management is an integral part of any engineering discipline, getting exposed to this section of engineering will greatly help shape my career in the future. Johnson Space Center is a world leader in risk management processes; learning risk management here gives me a huge advantage over my peers, as well as understanding decision making in the context of risk management will help me to be a well-rounded engineer. Strategic planning is an area I had not previously

  7. Interactive Pinball Business

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Buur, Jacob; Gudiksen, Sune

    2012-01-01

    Interaction design expands into new fields. Interaction design and business model innovation is a promising meeting of disciplines: Many businesses see the need to rethink their ways of doing business, and, as business models pose highly dynamic and interactive problems, interaction design has much...... to offer. This paper compares ‘tangible business models’ in the form of pinball-like contraptions, designed by interaction design students with those developed by groups of professionals around concrete business issues. We will show how the interactive models encourage business people to play with...... hypotheses and experiment with scenarios as a way of innovating their business models, and why this is so....

  8. Interactive pinball business

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Buur, Jacob; Gudiksen, Sune Klok

    2012-01-01

    Interaction design expands into new fields. Interaction design and business model innovation is a promising meeting of disciplines: Many businesses see the need to rethink their ways of doing business, and, as business models pose highly dynamic and interactive problems, interaction design has much...... to offer. This paper compares 'tangible business models' in the form of pinball-like contraptions, designed by interaction design students with those developed by groups of professionals around concrete business issues. We will show how the interactive models encourage business people to play with...... hypotheses and experiment with scenarios as a way of innovating their business models, and why this is so...

  9. Womens Business Center

    Data.gov (United States)

    Small Business Administration — Women's Business Centers (WBCs) represent a national network of nearly 100 educational centers throughout the United States and its territories, which are designed...

  10. Freemium Business Models as the Foundation for Growing an E-business Venture: A Multiple Case Study of Industry Leaders

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Günzel-Jensen, Franziska; Holm, Anna B.

    2015-01-01

    ‘free’ was employed in young entrepreneurial ventures’ business models in the initial life-cycle stages – opportunity recognition, market entry, and market exploitation. We find that various forms of freemium business models are employed through the initial life-cycle stages of a new venture for reasons......In e-business freemium business models have become legitimate. However, current research provides little insight on how the free and premium offering should be employed to lead to growth and success in the long run. The presented research aims to fill this gap by investigating how the property...... of trial-and-error, learning, exploration, legitimization and resource acquisition. A freemium business model can also serve as a nascent business model, though without a sustainable monetization component, for finding a sustainable business model through a series of dynamic adjustments. With our...

  11. Business Inspiration: Small Business Leadership in Recovery?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rae, David; Price, Liz; Bosworth, Gary; Parkinson, Paul

    2012-01-01

    Business Inspiration was a short, action-centred leadership and innovation development programme designed for owners and managers of smaller firms to address business survival and repositioning needs arising from the UK's economic downturn. The article examines the design and delivery of Business Inspiration and the impact of the programme on…

  12. How the U.S. economy resembles a (very) big business

    OpenAIRE

    Campbell, Jeffrey R.

    2008-01-01

    This article presents basic tools for measuring different business lines’ contributions to the U.S. economy’s business cycles, and it applies these to measure the exposure of a large conglomerate to macroeconomic risks.

  13. Business Structures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Gilkey

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available The newspaper industry has absorbed a tremendous financial impact during the last three years in revenues and bottom lines. As a whole, industry players were slow to react to ever-changing marketplace dynamics. Newspapers report on other companies and industries in their business pages every day. However, they failed to listen to and heed some of the advice and counsel they offered on those some pages. As they have to come to acknowledge the trend, it has triggered a re-evaluation of the company’s organizational structure on the revenue and expense sides of the equation. The change in revenue streams had become so extreme that many large newspaper groups have opted to file bankruptcy in order to continue operations while relieving themselves of crushing loan payments and obsolete labor agreements. The newspaper industry, as a whole, is a capital-intensive one, with heavy investment required for printing and equipment for compiling and collating revenue-rich inserts, along with fleets of delivery trucks and vans

  14. Delivering IT and eBusiness value

    CERN Document Server

    Willcocks, Leslie

    2001-01-01

    Delivering Business Value from IT' is focused on the evaluation issue in IT and how IT evaluation can proceed across the life-cycle of any IT investment and be linked positively to improving business performance. .Chapters 1,2 and 3 detail an approach to IT evaluation whilst chapters 4 and 5 build on these by showing two distinctive approaches to linking IT to business performance. The remaining three chapters deal with a range of evaluation issues emerging as important - specifically Internet evaluation, Y2K and beyond, EMU, quality outsourcing, infrastructure, role of benchmarking, and cost

  15. Social Business

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Cristina ENACHE

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The field of social business is growing rapidly and attracting increased attention from many sectors. The term itself shows up frequently in the media, is referenced by public officials, have become common on universities. The reasons behind the popularity of social entrepreneurship are many. On the most basic level, there’s something inherently interesting and appealing about entrepreneurs and the stories of why and how they do what they do. The interest in social entrepreneurship transcends the phenomenon of popularity and fascination with people. Social entrepreneurship signals the imperative to drive social change, and it is that potential payoff, with its lasting, transformational benefit to society, that sets the field and its practitioners apart. Although the potential benefits offered by social entrepreneurship are clear to many of those promoting and funding these activities, the actual definition of what social entrepreneurs do to produce this order of magnitude return is less clear. In fact, we would argue that the definition of social entrepreneurship today is anything but clear. As a result, social entrepreneurship has become so inclusive that it now has an immense tent into which all manner of socially beneficial activities fit. In some respects this inclusiveness could be a good thing. If we can achieve a rigorous definition, then those who support social entrepreneurship can focus their resources on building and strengthening a concrete and identifiable field. Absent that discipline, proponents of social entrepreneurship run the risk of giving the skeptics an ever-expanding target to shoot at, and the cynics even more reason to discount social innovation and those who drive it.

  16. The business of petroleum exploration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This book contains the proceedings of the Business of Petroleum Exploration. The following topics are included: Petroleum business; Economic aspects of the business; Managing business; and Legal, Political, Ethical and environment aspects of the business

  17. Befuddling Business Casual

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2008-01-01

    @@ "Business casual"has taken on a negative ring,though the English call it "smart casual"which sounds a little more stylish.Popularized by IT businesses as an alternative to"international standard business attire,"business casual holds Steve Jobs and Bill Gates up as its paragons.

  18. Business plan competition

    CERN Document Server

    2007-01-01

    "Venture – Companies for tomorrow" is a business plan competition, which supports students and other junior entrepreneurs in developing their business plans. The sixth edition of the competition is now taking place. Venture 2008 highlights: - prize money totalling CHF 150’000; - possibility to optimize business ideas and business plans with the help of experienced coaches: around 200 coaches are available, with a wide range of backgrounds, entrepreneurs as well as venture capitalists; -\tpossibility to present business ideas and business plans to potential investors ("Investor Days" - 17 January and 7 May); - active involvement in the start-up community; -\tcontribution to potential independence. The competition consists of two phases: Phase I, Business idea, Deadline for submission of business idea: 5 December 2007 (online at http://www.venture.ch). Award Ceremony: 17 January 2008 Phase II, Business plan Deadline for submission of business plan: 2 April 2008 (online at...

  19. Social Business Models

    OpenAIRE

    Maria Cristina Enache; Corina Sbughea

    2015-01-01

    A Social Business embraces networks of people to create business value. A Social Business connects people to expertise. It enable individuals – whether customers, partners or employees – to form networks to generate new sources of innovation, foster creativity, and establish greater reach and exposure to new business opportunities. It establishes a foundational level of trust across these business networks and, thus, a willingness to openly share information. It empowers these networks with t...

  20. Business Gift Giving Etiquette

    OpenAIRE

    Paris, Dubravka

    2015-01-01

    Business world today is faced with cultural similarities and cultural gaps. Every business person should be familiar with the business etiquette, in order to avoid a cultural faux pas. The topic of this paper is business gift giving in various parts of the world with the special emphasis on the English speaking countries. It comprises the basic rules of business gift giving etiquette, the types of gifts, especially the difference between the gifts for clients, the gifts for employees and the ...

  1. Business and Human Rights

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Buhmann, Karin

    2015-01-01

    This article analyses the United Nations (UN) Guidelines on Business and Human Rights adopted in 2011 by the UN Human Rights Council from the perspective of transnational business governance interactions (TBGI) analytical framework.1 The article identifies and discusses dimensions of interaction...... Principles are unique in several areas of relevance to transnational business governance interaction and indicates the relevance of the TBGI approach to public regulatory transnational business governance initiatives. The analysis of the Guiding Principles as interactional transnational business governance...

  2. Smart Business Networks Design and Business Genetics

    OpenAIRE

    Pau, Louis-François

    2006-01-01

    textabstractWith the emergence of smart business networks, agile networks, etc. as important research areas in management, for all the attractiveness of these concepts, a major issue remains around their design and the selection rules. While smart business networks should provide advantages due to the quick connect of business partners for selected functions in a process common to several parties, literature does not provide constructive methods whereby the selection of temporary partners and...

  3. Automatic generation of optimal business processes from business rules

    OpenAIRE

    Steen, Bas; Ferreira Pires, Luis; Iacob, Maria-Eugenia

    2010-01-01

    In recent years, business process models are increasingly being used as a means for business process improvement. Business rules can be seen as requirements for business processes, in that they describe the constraints that must hold for business processes that implement these business rules. Therefore, in principle one could devise (automated) transformations from business rules to business processes. These transformations should improve the quality (correctness) of business processes, by im...

  4. Sosiaalinen media business to business -yritysmaailmassa

    OpenAIRE

    Koskinen, Krista

    2011-01-01

    Opinnäytetyö käsittelee sosiaalisen median käyttömahdollisuuksia business to business –yritysmaailmassa. Aihetta käsitellään Gycom konsernin näkökannalta ja lähtökohtana on selvittää, kannattaako kyseisen yrityksen lähteä mukaan sosiaaliseen mediaan tavoitteena markkinoida ja luoda asiakassuhteita. Koska business to business -yritysten on kuluttajaa vaikeampaa hyötyä sosiaalisesta mediasta, luo tämä omat hankaluutensa kyseisessä mediassa menestymiseen. Sosiaalista mediaa tarkastellaan kir...

  5. A Structured Debriefing Process for International Business Culture Simulations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGraw, Peter; Palmer, Ian

    1999-01-01

    Outlines a nine-step structure for debriefing an international business culture simulation. Stresses the need to address three stages in the experiential learning cycle: reflection, processing, and transfer. Appendices include the specific simulation used and a debriefing note. (DB)

  6. Business Plans For Dummies

    CERN Document Server

    Tiffany, Paul; Barrow, Colin

    2011-01-01

    A full updated and extended second edition of an established UK bestseller Business Plans For Dummies 2nd Edition features new and updated information on formulating a solid business plan to build a secure business - even in an economic downturn. Complete with a brand new business plan template to get you started this expert guide offers fresh advice on reading the competitive marketplace and assessing your business in the current economic climate. It walks you step-by-step through every aspect of planning achievable business goals and diversification strategies, identifying trends, exploring

  7. Business idioms in America

    CERN Document Server

    Stirling, Bruce

    2012-01-01

    Meet Joan Austen, a rising star in the advertising business. Joan's company is taking off and you have a front row seat as Joan and her staff resolve business and personal challenges during a typical business day in New York City. By entering Joan's world, you will acquire the latest and the most commonly used vocabulary in business today. Best of all, you will gain the skills and confidence you need to succeed in any English-speaking business environment anywhere in the world. * Over 2,000 essential business idioms and phrases * Perfect for classroom and for self-study * Lessons designed t

  8. Business plans made easy

    CERN Document Server

    Press, Entrepreneur

    2005-01-01

    Business Plans Made Easy, 3rd Edition is the latest incarnation of the essential guide for creating a high-impact business plan that will turn an entrepreneur's dreams into reality. Revised and updated, the book expands the helpful business plan summaries and adds new examples of real-life business plans. Tips about information technology and an added business plan for artists increase the scope of the book. The useful forms, worksheets and financial statements have been updated to reflect recent changes in the business world, and an added "expert advice" section at the end of each chapter giv

  9. Business statistics for dummies

    CERN Document Server

    Anderson, Alan

    2013-01-01

    Score higher in your business statistics course? Easy. Business statistics is a common course for business majors and MBA candidates. It examines common data sets and the proper way to use such information when conducting research and producing informational reports such as profit and loss statements, customer satisfaction surveys, and peer comparisons. Business Statistics For Dummies tracks to a typical business statistics course offered at the undergraduate and graduate levels and provides clear, practical explanations of business statistical ideas, techniques, formulas, and calculations, w

  10. BRANDING IN SMALL BUSINESS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mihai Răzvan Constantin BARBU

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we analyzed the branding in small business. Using a desk research on Internet and the press we have identified the practices small businesses use to enhance their brand and the brand dynamics in small business. Our main contribution is that we tried to figure out the strategy of branding in small business. This need further to be investigated in order to understand how branding works in small business and to better capture the role of branding in small business.

  11. Biogeochemical Cycling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bebout, Brad; Fonda, Mark (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    This lecture will introduce the concept of biogeochemical cycling. The roles of microbes in the cycling of nutrients, production and consumption of trace gases, and mineralization will be briefly introduced.

  12. Sulfur cycle

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    LokaBharathi, P.A.

    Microbes, especially bacteria, play an important role in oxidative and reductive cycle of sulfur. The oxidative part of the cycle is mediated by photosynthetic bacteria in the presence of light energy and chemosynthetic forms in the absence of light...

  13. Business Models For Transport eBusiness

    OpenAIRE

    Dragan Cisic; Ivan Franciskovic; Ana Peric

    2003-01-01

    In this paper authors are presenting expectations from electronic commerce and its connotations on transport logistics. Based on trends, the relations between the companies in the international transport have to be strengthened using Internet business models. In the paper authors are investigating e-business information models for usage in transport

  14. Business environment and Russian Small Business

    OpenAIRE

    Rubzova, O.

    2013-01-01

    The paper deals with factors hampering the development of small business in the monopoly-dominated Russian economy. It is suggested that more activism on the part of small business organizations is required to foresee the enforcement of the legislation promoting competition

  15. Teaching Business Ethics or Teaching Business Ethically?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stablein, Ralph

    2003-01-01

    Notes that one of the most important contexts for ethical decision-making is the nature and operation of "contemporary capitalisms." Suggests that rather than issuing a call for teaching business ethics, the author emphasizes the need for more ethical business teaching. (SG)

  16. Papers of the PTAC wireless, telecommunications and e-business forum : using wireless, SCADA, and well data life cycle management technology to boost productivity and reduce costs in the upstream oil and gas industry

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2004-07-01

    The main focus of this forum was the use of wireless, telecommunications and e-business as a means of improving efficiency and productivity in the upstream oil and gas industry. The use of new communications technologies in asset monitoring and business performance was discussed, as well as industrial automation and wireless connectivity in conjunction with Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) systems. New technologies in the areas of maintenance and decision support and synergy integration were introduced. New health, safety and environmental performance tools were presented. Issues concerning secure communications and document exchange expenses were also introduced, as well as different methods of closing data gaps between joint interest partners. Specific tools and software concerning compliance management with web-based and remote field data capture technology were discussed, as well as the collection and display of well-site data using newly developed BlueGauge technology. Eleven papers were presented in this forum, of which three were catalogued separately for inclusion in this database. tabs., figs.

  17. Papers of the PTAC wireless, telecommunications and e-business forum : using wireless, SCADA, and well data life cycle management technology to boost productivity and reduce costs in the upstream oil and gas industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The main focus of this forum was the use of wireless, telecommunications and e-business as a means of improving efficiency and productivity in the upstream oil and gas industry. The use of new communications technologies in asset monitoring and business performance was discussed, as well as industrial automation and wireless connectivity in conjunction with Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) systems. New technologies in the areas of maintenance and decision support and synergy integration were introduced. New health, safety and environmental performance tools were presented. Issues concerning secure communications and document exchange expenses were also introduced, as well as different methods of closing data gaps between joint interest partners. Specific tools and software concerning compliance management with web-based and remote field data capture technology were discussed, as well as the collection and display of well-site data using newly developed BlueGauge technology. Eleven papers were presented in this forum, of which three were catalogued separately for inclusion in this database. tabs., figs

  18. Art Interrupting Business, Business interrupting Art

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kampf, Constance Elizabeth

    2014-01-01

    the scene for understanding digital activism, this chapter examines a partial history of digital artist activism focused on ®™ark and etoy, two artist collectives that were networked and cooperated on some projects in the late 1990s. The focus is on two projects and their impacts: Toywar and Vote......Tensions between global corporations and digital artists who use business as an artistic and activist medium reveal rough edges in the interface between business and society. This interaction can be seen as a space where the interface between business and society is being challenged, with artists...... performing online art that raises awareness about hidden aspects of business practices. As digital artists place the spotlight on activities and business strategies that are not part of corporate plans for communicating their “transparency,” they also work to reconfigure and re(de)fine this interface. To set...

  19. Business Tax in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    RICHARD; HOFFMANN

    2009-01-01

    Business tax is a tax payable against turnover by all enterprises and individuals undertaking the following business activities:providing taxable services, including communication, transport, construction, finance and insurance, telecom, culture,

  20. Government and Business

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Campbell, John L.

    2015-01-01

    There is a vast literature about the relationships between government and business in advanced capitalist societies.......There is a vast literature about the relationships between government and business in advanced capitalist societies....

  1. Business Game Learning Environment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kirschner, Paul A.; Valcke, Martin; Van Vilsteren, Paul

    2010-01-01

    Kirschner, P. A., Valcke, M., & Van Vilsteren, P. (1997) Business Game Learning Environment. Design and development of a competency-based distance education business curriculum at the Open University of the Netherlands.

  2. Rebranding Photography Business

    OpenAIRE

    Hietanen, Jouni

    2016-01-01

    This thesis is about rebranding a photography business. Thesis consists of a small historical background how the business became reality, Why is rebranding needed, what products and services are offered, why our website needed renovating, how to determinate what logo is perfect for one's business and a budget addressed into all these changes. The marketing plan goes through where the business is now and what should be done to get where it should be headed.

  3. Stats means business

    CERN Document Server

    Buglear, John

    2010-01-01

    Stats Means Business is an introductory textbook written for Business, Hospitality and Tourism students who take modules on Statistics or Quantitative research methods. Recognising that most users of this book will have limited if any grounding in the subject, this book minimises technical language, provides clear definition of key terms, and gives emphasis to interpretation rather than technique.Stats Means Business enables readers to:appreciate the importance of statistical analysis in business, hospitality and tourism understand statis

  4. Business Intelligence Approaches

    OpenAIRE

    Mihaela MUNTEAN

    2012-01-01

    Business Intelligence (BI) is unanimous considered the art of gaining business advantage from data; therefore BI systems and infrastructures must integrate disparate data sources into a single coherent framework for real-time reporting and detailed analysis within the extended enterprise. Also the solution to a business problem is a process that includes business intelligence, BI, by itself, is rarely the complete solution to the problem. Therefore, BI tools must understand the process and ho...

  5. Integrated business development

    OpenAIRE

    Koppers, Carina; Klumpp, Matthias

    2010-01-01

    Business Development traditionally has an incorporated focus on marketing and marketing models as well as marketing competencies among business development managers. However, the discussed case studies results and trends in business and market behaviour point to the fact that in the future only an integrated model of business development (including logistics, supply and quality management models and activities, respectively personnel) can provide significant competitive advantages especially ...

  6. IMPLEMENTING BUSINESS PROCESS MANAGEMENT

    OpenAIRE

    Vlad BALANESCU; Mihaela MASCU

    2014-01-01

    Business Process Management (BPM) is considered to be the third wave in business process theory. Appearing as a response to the critique formulated regarding Business Process Reengineering, BPM tries to be a more holistic and integrated approach to management and processes. In a time where complex solutions are needed solution that incorporates elements from various concepts, Business Process Management can be, in my opinion, a link between these ideas. After a short introduction presenting g...

  7. Securitization and small business

    OpenAIRE

    Wilcox, James A.

    2011-01-01

    Small businesses have relied considerably on securitized markets for credit. The recent financial crisis led to a virtual cessation of securitization of some of the loans used by small businesses, such as commercial real estate mortgages, vehicle, and credit card loans. In addition, values of commercial and residential real estate, which small businesses often use as collateral for loans, dropped dramatically. As a consequence, small businesses may have experienced tighter credit conditions t...

  8. Successful business model innovation

    OpenAIRE

    Breiby, Eivind; Wanberg, Magnus Haug

    2011-01-01

    A global CEO study conducted by IBM in 2006 showed that business model innovation has a higher correlation with operating margin growth than any other type of innovation. It is therefore not surprising that business model innovation is a buzzword increasingly seen in business jargon and literature. However, the field is quite novel and finding ways of approaching and understanding the subject has been more elusive. This thesis presents a comprehensive and academically founded approach to busi...

  9. KSF of family business

    OpenAIRE

    Boroš, Petr

    2014-01-01

    Family business is a business in which family members have a large stake in ownership and also a deciding vote on business operation. This thesis deals with what makes the family businesses thriving. The research is conducted using the Good to Great framework by Jim Collins. Based mainly on quantitative and qualitative survey of 8 Czech companies of various fields and sizes, it was discovered that there are some links between the companies' success. These findings yield a set of recommendatio...

  10. WOMEN IN FAMILY BUSINESS

    OpenAIRE

    Anshu

    2012-01-01

    The role of women in family businesses is explored in the paper. Although recognized as generally very important players, the role of women is often defined as invisible in business decision-making, supportive in men’s traditional business domains and only rarelyadequately recognized and rewarded. The paper explores possible differences in the views of men and women who manage small family firms. Their attitudes opposing the traditional business roles ofwomen, different views on managerial, o...

  11. Doing Business in Mexico

    OpenAIRE

    World Bank; International Finance Corporation

    2006-01-01

    This report investigates the scope and manner of regulations that enhance business activity and those that constrain it. Quantitative indicators on business regulations and their enforcement have been created for 12 cities and states, which can now be compared with Mexico City, and to 154 countries around the world. The indicators cover four "Doing Business" topics: starting a business, registering property, getting credit and enforcing contracts. The 12 cities and states are: Aguascalientes,...

  12. Building multidisciplinary business teams

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper is a description of an approach to managing Exploration and Production assets through the operation of multidisciplinary business teams. The business team approach can assist in improved asset performance in terms of efficiency, motivation and business results, compared with more traditional matrix style hierarchies. Within this paper certain critical success factors for the long term success of multidiscipline teams are outlined, together with some of the risk of business team operation

  13. Business plan (tennis school)

    OpenAIRE

    Sirghi, Evgeniya

    2011-01-01

    The main task of this work is to develop a comprehensive business plan for startup sports business that will offer training services. In my final Diploma study I am working on the creation of business plans for the company with a few years vision, I am developing a strategy which takes into account precise construction of finance planning, market penetration and number of employees. The business plan will analyze the current market situation, competition and the probability of company develop...

  14. Business Plan SMEs

    OpenAIRE

    Oppolzerová, Eva

    2009-01-01

    The study presents a business plan for a firm which offers fishing services. The study consist of a theoretical part and a practical part. In the theoretical section the small and medium enterprises are specified, especially the family business and there are characteristics of the form, structure and terms of the business plan. The practical section focuses on elaboration of the business plan for the particular firm. It includes description of all activities, market analysis, financial plan, ...

  15. WRITTEN COMMUNICATION IN BUSINESS

    OpenAIRE

    Oana COSMAN

    2013-01-01

    The article examines the work of researchers primarily interested in the investigation of written communication in business settings. The author regards 'business discourse' as a field of study with distinct features in the domain of discourse analysis. Thus, the paper overviews the most important contributions to the development of written business discourse with a number of landmark studies. To gain a greater understanding of the written business discourse, the author also investigates some...

  16. The balanced business portfolio evaluation procedure at industrial enterprises

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K.Yu. Yavorska

    2013-09-01

    possible business directions (as we mentions, there can be three possible types of business direction: horizontal, vertical and combined, its structure and life cycle as well. Forth procedures step aims to evaluate business portfolio balance, which based not on separately taken SBUs, but on business directions. On this step the same methods as on second one are used. The final step includes compressing of two valuations and choosing that business portfolio structure, which is better for the company.Conclusions and directions of further researches. Compared to other procedures, this one includes comparison of two balance business portfolio valuations (which goes from different business portfolio structures. Moreover, given procedure includes expediency business direction creating model. The advantages of business portfolio based on business directions were also given: additional market barrier for other competitors are created, improvement of competitiveness, increasing of profitability, etc.

  17. Making business models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gudiksen, Sune Klok; Poulsen, Søren Bolvig; Buur, Jacob

    2014-01-01

    Well-established companies are currently struggling to secure profits due to the pressure from new players' business models as they take advantage of communication technology and new business-model configurations. Because of this, the business model research field flourishes currently; however, the...

  18. Liquidating a China Business

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    RICHARD; HOFFMANN

    2009-01-01

    With the global economic crisis hitting some businesses in China very hard as export sales dry up, now is a timely occasion to remind executives of affected businesses of their responsibilities when having to liquidate a business. China-based subsidiaries may

  19. Introducing Business English

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nickerson, C.; Planken, B.C.

    2015-01-01

    Introducing Business English provides a comprehensive overview of this topic, situating the concepts of Business English and English for Specific Business Purposes within the wider field of English for Special Purposes. This book draws on contemporary teaching and research contexts to demonstrate th

  20. SOCIAL MEDIA IN BUSINESS

    OpenAIRE

    ХАДАРЦЕВА Л.С.; ДЗАХОЕВА С.Л.

    2015-01-01

    This article discusses frequently used business applications for social media, including recruiting, employee engagement and communication, tools for business intelligence, and expanding learning opportunities among employees. Social media are becoming powerful business tools. They are helping employers with everything, beginning from recruitment to communications. These applications turn social media into collaborative tools to improve work and product.

  1. Business Process Management - Methodologies

    OpenAIRE

    PROKOP, Jan

    2008-01-01

    The main objective of this thesis is to map some of the business process management, business process reengineering methodologies and compare it according to several criteria. Part of this thesis is survey of the state of business process management in Czech Republic and Hungary.

  2. English for Business Communication

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhatia, Vijay K.; Bremner, Stephen

    2012-01-01

    The concept of Business English has undergone some major shifts in the last few years because of a number of developments, such as advances in genre theory and the coming together of English for Business Purposes and Business Communication, inspired by the realization that there is a gap to be bridged between the academy and the globalized…

  3. Business Model Innovation

    OpenAIRE

    FOSS, NICOLAI; Stieglitz, Nils

    2014-01-01

    We draw on the complementarity literature in economics and management research to dimensionalize business models innovations. Specifically, such innovation can be dimensionalized in terms of the depth and the breadth of the changes to the company’s business model that they imply. In turn, different business model innovations are associated with different management challenges and require different leadership interventions to become successful.

  4. Business history and risk

    OpenAIRE

    Gourvish , Terry

    2003-01-01

    CARR, in association with the Centre for Business History, University of Leeds, held a successful workshop on 'Business History and Risk' on 20 February 2002. The workshop, which was sponsored by the ESRC, brought together business historians, economists, accountants and risk analysts to develop an interdisciplinary discussion on understandings of risk by employers, workers and governments in different historical settings.

  5. Business Communication Strategies

    OpenAIRE

    Lavinia Hulea

    2005-01-01

    General communication processes rely on messages implying contents, communication channels, a receiver and clear objectives. Once accepting the importance of defining objectives, three strategies, narrative, implicative, and decisional, seem to be specific for most business communications. While narrative business communications convey information with a view of simply transmitting information and depend on accuracy, complexity, and clarity, implicative business communications convey informat...

  6. Food Business Entrepreneurship

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weber, Peter

    Though not a very traditional career path for food scientists, one option is to go into business for yourself by starting a food business. Food business entrepreneurship is a difficult career that entails long work hours, extensive decision making, and tasks that require knowledge beyond food science. However, there is high potential for rewards, including financial rewards, career progression, and personal flexibility.

  7. Business in the Grid

    CERN Document Server

    Schikuta, Erich; Donno, Flavia; Stockinger, Heinz; Vinek, Elisabeth; Wanek, Helmut; Witzany, Christoph; Haq, Irfan Ul

    2009-01-01

    From 2004 to 2007 the Business In the Grid (BIG) project took place and was driven by the following goals: Firstly, make business aware of Grid technology and, secondly, try to explore new business models. We disseminated Grid computing by mainly concentrating on the central European market and interviewed several companies in order to gain insights into the Grid acceptance in industrial environments. In this article we present the results of the project, elaborate on a critical discussion on business adaptations, and describe a novel dynamic authorization workflow for business processes in the Grid.

  8. Business model - HUB Praha

    OpenAIRE

    Centnerová, Michala

    2010-01-01

    Social business is type of business, which primary objective is very different from the profit-driven business. Social business objective is to create an added value to society and achieve at least some profit, which serves as a means to achieve this goal. For my thesis I have chosen a business model analysis of the new organization Hub Prague, which is a representative of a social entrepreneurship and which has entered Czech market in 2010. I have examined mainly its income and expenditures ...

  9. Designing Business Model Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cavalcante, Sergio Andre

    2014-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to base organisational change on the firm's business model, an approach that research has only recently start to address. This study adopts a process-based perspective on business models and insights from a variety of theories as the basis for the development of ideas on...... the design of business model change. This paper offers a new, process-based strategic analytical artefact for the design of business model change, consisting of three main phases. Designing business model change as suggested in this paper allows ex ante analysis of alternative scenarios of change in a...

  10. Revision of Business Ethics

    OpenAIRE

    Tomas Sigmund

    2011-01-01

    Business ethics is a controversial topic. In my article I would like to explore where the limits of business ethics are and to what extent it can become part of the economic world. I would like to explore the question what the relationship between ethics and business is and whether what business ethicists consider ethics is real ethics in the fundamental sense of the world. The concept of business ethics will be discussed compared to general ethical theories and consequences drawn. I would li...

  11. Business Law, Europe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fomcenco, Alex; Werlauff, Erik

    This book is a must-have for any business advisor that operates on a cross-border level in the European Union, EU. Regardless of whether you already have solid knowledge about doing business in the EU or you are just taking your first steps on this corporate scene, Business Law, Europe should...... be the book within your reach. We call it “Our Corporate Bible”. In an easily comprehendible way we address some of the most essential issues of business law, and provide guidelines and clarity for understanding and proper application of the legal provisions that govern business law in Europe....

  12. Corporate Business Diplomacy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Søndergaard, Mikael

    2014-01-01

    diplomacy can complement business theories such as stakeholder theory and agency theory. Examples from practice show that in a broad sense, corporate business diplomacy is concerned with managing external stakeholders, while in a narrow sense, it is concerned with managing internal stakeholders. The......This article illustrates the interdisciplinary nature of the field of corporate business diplomacy using examples from academic disciplines, such as economics and political science, which can contribute to the understanding of corporate business diplomacy. Examples also show that corporate business...

  13. Social Business Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Cristina Enache

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available A Social Business embraces networks of people to create business value. A Social Business connects people to expertise. It enable individuals – whether customers, partners or employees – to form networks to generate new sources of innovation, foster creativity, and establish greater reach and exposure to new business opportunities. It establishes a foundational level of trust across these business networks and, thus, a willingness to openly share information. It empowers these networks with the collaborative, gaming and analytical tools needed for members to engage each other and creatively solve business challenges. A Social business strives to remove unnecessary boundaries between experts inside the company and experts in the marketplace. It embraces the tools and leadership models that support capturing knowledge and insight from many sources, allowing it to quickly sense changes in customer mood, employee sentiment or process efficiencies. It utilizes analytics and social connections inside and outside the company to solve business problems and capture new business opportunities. A Social Business leverages these social networks to speed up business, gaining real time insight to make quicker and better decisions. It gets information to customers and partners in new ways -- faster. Supported by ubiquitous access on mobile devices and new ways of connecting and working together in the Cloud and on open platforms, a Social Business turns time and location from constraints into advantages. Business is free to occur when and where it delivers the greatest value, allowing the organization to adapt quickly to the changing marketplace. We believe the most effective approach to enabling a Social Business centers around helping people discover expertise, develop social networks and capitalize on relationships.

  14. Business Climate and Good Governance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Besmira Manaj

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper consists of three factors, namely: Good Governance, Business Climate and Corruption. How they affect the development product of Albania, not only as a concept, and a principle but mostly as a sensitive aspect in the integration process. There are some interpretations of this concept, but I intend to analyze the key factors and actors, their cooperation and concrete production in society. Improving governance is necessary to have an integrated long term strategy based upon a continuous cooperation between institutions and citizens. But in developing countries like Albania there are some important questions such as: How can we measure the improvement of Good Governance through policies? Has Good Governance indicated an effective way for the sustainable development? (Meisel, 2008, 6. These question give us the orientation to reflect about the process of development, social economic political behavior and how this multidimensional is transformed in product of good governance. The business cycle is strongly connected with many aspects of political-, social-, juridical aspects and good governance. Despite attempts to draft law regulations, the level of corruption and informality in Albania continues to be a major obstacle. The credibility level in the implementation of law is an indicator that affects democratization and institutional integration. At present, different reports of international institutions, define Albania as the country with the highest level of Corruption in the Balkans, which is a key factor influencing business. The ways with

  15. Cultural management in family business

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patricia Amelia Tomei

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available This article's main goal is to analyze how the evolution of organizational culture can impact business performance. A theoretical framework was developed based on a review of the literature relating to organizational culture and family business succession management models. A single case study methodology was adopted based on primary and secondary data obtained through documentary research, participant observation and interviews at Guapo Loco, a Brazilian chain of Mexican restaurants / fun bars, which is a family company and was founded in Rio de Janeiro in 1996. We focused on its leader's trajectory and its implications for the life cycle of the family business, the founder¿s dream and vision, succession and cultural management difficulties. We conclude that it is possible for an organization to become trapped by its cultural formation. We will see that as it reaches maturity, the organizational, family and shareholder dimensions need to adapt in a similar fashion. At this stage, the organizational culture may become dysfunctional, jeopardizing the organization's survival.

  16. Business Intelligence in Process Control

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kopčeková, Alena; Kopček, Michal; Tanuška, Pavol

    2013-12-01

    The Business Intelligence technology, which represents a strong tool not only for decision making support, but also has a big potential in other fields of application, is discussed in this paper. Necessary fundamental definitions are offered and explained to better understand the basic principles and the role of this technology for company management. Article is logically divided into five main parts. In the first part, there is the definition of the technology and the list of main advantages. In the second part, an overview of the system architecture with the brief description of separate building blocks is presented. Also, the hierarchical nature of the system architecture is shown. The technology life cycle consisting of four steps, which are mutually interconnected into a ring, is described in the third part. In the fourth part, analytical methods incorporated in the online analytical processing and data mining used within the business intelligence as well as the related data mining methodologies are summarised. Also, some typical applications of the above-mentioned particular methods are introduced. In the final part, a proposal of the knowledge discovery system for hierarchical process control is outlined. The focus of this paper is to provide a comprehensive view and to familiarize the reader with the Business Intelligence technology and its utilisation.

  17. Canadian Business Schools: Going out of Business?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dobni, Dawn; Dobni, Brooke

    1996-01-01

    Using Porter's five-forces model (potential entrants, suppliers, buyers, rivalry, substitutes) to analyze competition in Canadian university business schools, the authors conclude that schools are becoming increasingly vulnerable to competitive pressures and that strategic reorientation is necessary. (SK)

  18. Business-to-Business Electronic Commerce

    OpenAIRE

    David Lucking-Reiley; Daniel F. Spulber

    2001-01-01

    This paper, prepared for the Journal of Economic Perspectives, provides an overview of the economic issues arising in business-to-business (B2B) online commerce. Just as the industrial revolution mechanized firms' manufacturing functions, the information revolution is now mechanizing firms' marketing functions. Industry insiders have forecast tremendous growth in B2B e-commerce, most predicting transaction volumes in the trillions of dollars by 2005. We begin by defining the scope of B2B e co...

  19. Business-to-business relationship quality

    OpenAIRE

    Vieira, Armando Luís

    2009-01-01

    Relationship quality (RQ) is increasingly seen as a key factor of competitive advantage, replacing service quality and customer satisfaction as a source of superior performance. Despite the crucial role that relationship managers play in building business-to-business (828) relationships, little research has looked at the antecedents of RQ from an interpersonal perspective. In order to respond to the numerous calls for clarification, for there is still some ambiguity around this topic, this s...

  20. Strategic business rules for business process intelligence : An oracle prototype

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rajeev Kaula

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Business process intelligence aims to provide timely information to improve business process effectiveness and align it with business objectives in order to compete successfully in the marketplace. Generally such information not only improves an organizations ability to accomplish business objectives, but may also lead to the identification of information that could facilitate competitive advantage. This paper outlines an approach to develop an information flow model that involves the specification of activity dimensions during business process modeling to develop dimensional models to identify process metrics through strategic business rules that aligns a business process with business objectives. The paper illustrates the concepts through a marketing business process Lead to forecast prototype which is implemented in Oracle’s PL/SQL language.   Keywords: Business Intelligence, Business Process, Business Process Metrics, Business Process Intelligence, Business Rules.