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Sample records for burrowing depth forecasts

  1. Sand moisture as a factor determining depth of burrowing in the ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Tylos granulatus, a sandy-beach isopod, prefers an environmental moisture range exceeding 3,4% but less than 13%. The depths to which the animals burrow are, at least partly, determined by the moisture gradient in the sand. They are, however, incapable of burrowing into lotally dry sand. Animals alter their position in ...

  2. Habitat requirements and burrowing depths of rodents in relation to shallow waste burial sites

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gano, K.A.; States, J.B.

    1982-05-01

    The purpose of this paper is to provide a review of the literature and summarize information on factors affecting habitat selection and maximum recorded burrowing depths for representative small mammals that we consider most likely to inhibit waste burial sites in arid and semi-arid regions of the West. The information is intended for waste management designers who need to know what to expect from small mammals that may be present at a particular site. Waste repositories oculd be designed to exclude the deep burrowing rodents of a region by creating an unattractive habitat over the waste. Summaries are given for habitat requirements of each group along with generalized modifications that could be employed to deter habitation. Representatives from the major groups considered to be deep burrowers are discussed. Further, detailed information about a particular species can be obtained from the references cited.

  3. Habitat requirements and burrowing depths of rodents in relation to shallow waste burial sites

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gano, K.A.; States, J.B.

    1982-05-01

    The purpose of this paper is to provide a review of the literature and summarize information on factors affecting habitat selection and maximum recorded burrowing depths for representative small mammals that we consider most likely to inhibit waste burial sites in arid and semi-arid regions of the West. The information is intended for waste management designers who need to know what to expect from small mammals that may be present at a particular site. Waste repositories oculd be designed to exclude the deep burrowing rodents of a region by creating an unattractive habitat over the waste. Summaries are given for habitat requirements of each group along with generalized modifications that could be employed to deter habitation. Representatives from the major groups considered to be deep burrowers are discussed. Further, detailed information about a particular species can be obtained from the references cited

  4. Burrowing behavior of a deposit feeding bivalve predicts change in intertidal ecosystem state

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tanya Joan Compton

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Behavior has a predictive power that is often underutilized as a tool for signaling ecological change. The burrowing behavior of the deposit feeding bivalve Macoma balthica reflects a typical food-safety trade-off. The choice to live close to the sediment surface comes at a risk of predation and is a decision made when predation danger, food intake rates or future fitness prospects are low. In parts of the Dutch Wadden Sea, Macoma populations declined by 90% in the late 1990s, in parallel with large-scale mechanical cockle-dredging activities. During this decline, the burrowing depth of Macoma became shallow and was correlated with the population decline in the following year, indicating that it forecasted population change. Recently, there has been a series of large recruitment events in Macoma. According to the food-safety trade-off, we expected that Macoma should now live deeper, and have a higher body condition in association with this change in depth of living. Indeed, we observed that Macoma now lives deeper and that living depth in a given year forecasted population growth to the next year, especially in individuals larger than 14 mm. As living depth and body condition were strongly correlated in individuals larger than 14 mm, larger Macoma could be living deeper to protect their reproductive assets. Our results confirmed that burrowing depth signals impending population change and, together with body condition, can provide an early warning signal of ecological change. We suggest that population recovery is being driven by improved intertidal habitat quality in the Dutch Wadden Sea, rather than by the proposed climate-change related effects. This shift in ecosystem state is suggested to include the recovery of diatom habitat in the top layer of the sediment after cockle-dredging ended.

  5. A new macrofaunal limit in the deep biosphere revealed by extreme burrow depths in ancient sediments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cobain, S L; Hodgson, D M; Peakall, J; Wignall, P B; Cobain, M R D

    2018-01-10

    Macrofauna is known to inhabit the top few 10s cm of marine sediments, with rare burrows up to two metres below the seabed. Here, we provide evidence from deep-water Permian strata for a previously unrecognised habitat up to at least 8 metres below the sediment-water interface. Infaunal organisms exploited networks of forcibly injected sand below the seabed, forming living traces and reworking sediment. This is the first record that shows sediment injections are responsible for hosting macrofaunal life metres below the contemporaneous seabed. In addition, given the widespread occurrence of thick sandy successions that accumulate in deep-water settings, macrofauna living in the deep biosphere are likely much more prevalent than considered previously. These findings should influence future sampling strategies to better constrain the depth range of infaunal animals living in modern deep-sea sands. One Sentence Summary: The living depth of infaunal macrofauna is shown to reach at least 8 metres in new habitats associated with sand injections.

  6. Online multistep-ahead inundation depth forecasts by recurrent NARX networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H.-Y. Shen

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Various types of artificial neural networks (ANNs have been successfully applied in hydrological fields, but relatively scant on multistep-ahead flood inundation forecasting, which is very difficult to achieve, especially when dealing with forecasts without regular observed data. This study proposes a recurrent configuration of nonlinear autoregressive with exogenous inputs (NARX network, called R-NARX, to forecast multistep-ahead inundation depths in an inundation area. The proposed R-NARX is constructed based on the recurrent neural network (RNN, which is commonly used for modeling nonlinear dynamical systems. The models were trained and tested based on a large number of inundation data generated by a well validated two-dimensional simulation model at thirteen inundation-prone sites in Yilan County, Taiwan. We demonstrate that the R-NARX model can effectively inhibit error growth and accumulation when being applied to online multistep-ahead inundation forecasts over a long lasting forecast period. For comparison, a feedforward time-delay and an online feedback configuration of NARX networks (T-NARX and O-NARX were performed. The results show that (1 T-NARX networks cannot make online forecasts due to unavailable inputs in the constructed networks even though they provide the best performances for reference only; and (2 R-NARX networks consistently outperform O-NARX networks and can be adequately applied to online multistep-ahead forecasts of inundation depths in the study area during typhoon events.

  7. Razor clam to RoboClam: burrowing drag reduction mechanisms and their robotic adaptation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Winter, A G; V; Dorsch, D S; Slocum, A H; Hosoi, A E; Deits, R L H

    2014-01-01

    Estimates based on the strength, size, and shape of the Atlantic razor clam (Ensis directus) indicate that the animal's burrow depth should be physically limited to a few centimeters; yet razor clams can dig as deep as 70 cm. By measuring soil deformations around burrowing E. directus, we have found the animal reduces drag by contracting its valves to initially fail, and then fluidize, the surrounding substrate. The characteristic contraction time to achieve fluidization can be calculated directly from soil properties. The geometry of the fluidized zone is dictated by two commonly-measured geotechnical parameters: coefficient of lateral earth pressure and friction angle. Calculations using full ranges for both parameters indicate that the fluidized zone is a local effect, occurring between 1–5 body radii away from the animal. The energy associated with motion through fluidized substrate—characterized by a depth-independent density and viscosity—scales linearly with depth. In contrast, moving through static soil requires energy that scales with depth squared. For E. directus, this translates to a 10X reduction in the energy required to reach observed burrow depths. For engineers, localized fluidization offers a mechanically simple and purely kinematic method to dramatically reduce energy costs associated with digging. This concept is demonstrated with RoboClam, an E. directus-inspired robot. Using a genetic algorithm to find optimal digging kinematics, RoboClam has achieved localized fluidization burrowing performance comparable to that of the animal, with a linear energy-depth relationship, in both idealized granular glass beads and E. directus' native cohesive mudflat habitat. (paper)

  8. The burrowing characteristics of three common earthworm species

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Francis, G.S.; Tabley, F.J.; Butler, R.C.; Fraser, P.M.

    2001-01-01

    The burrowing characteristics of 3 common earthworm species were studied using X-ray computed tomography (CT) scanning in large cylinders (24.1 cm diameter) packed with topsoil (0-25 cm) and subsoil (25-50 cm) to representative field bulk density values and sown with ryegrass. Replicated cylinders (n 3), kept under constant moisture and temperature conditions, were inoculated with mature species of Lumbricus rubellus, Aporrectodea caliginosa, or Octolasion cyaneum earthworms at rates similar to their population density in the field. A non-inoculated, unreplicated control was also included. The number, biomass, and activity of the 3 species were then examined. X-ray CT scanning of large-diameter soil cylinders offers an alternative method for obtaining information on the burrowing characteristics of earthworms (Jegou et al. 1999). As this method is non-destructive, repeat measurements can be made and the use of large cylinders minimises edge effects. The objectives of this study were to: (i) assess the burrowing characteristics of 3 earthworm species (under artificial conditions) through measurement of 2-D porosity using X-ray CT scanning, (ii) estimate the extent of burrow backfilling between sequential scans, and (iii) estimate the continuity of earthworm burrows with depth through hydraulic conductivity measurements. Copyright (2001) CSIRO Publishing

  9. Burrowing owl nesting productivity: A comparison between artificial and natural burrows on and off golf courses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, M.D.; Conway, C.J.; Ellis, L.A.

    2005-01-01

    Burrowing owl (Athene cunicularia) populations are declining in many portions of their range, and lack of suitable nesting burrows is thought to be one reason for observed declines. Burrowing owls are attracted to golf courses because the birds generally nest and forage in short-grass, open areas, yet golf courses seldom have suitable nesting burrows. We examined the efficacy of installing artificial nesting burrows on golf courses as a way to help restore local burrowing owl populations. From 2001-2004 we monitored over 175 natural burrows off golf courses, 14 natural burrows on golf courses, 86 artificial burrows off golf courses, and 130 artificial burrows on golf courses. Owls located and used 8 of the 130 artificial burrows installed on golf courses (4 were used as nests). Owls selected burrows that were closer to existing natural burrows, farther from maintained areas (areas receiving turf maintenance by golf course staff), and farther from sprinkler heads. All 4 of the artificial burrows used as nests successfully fledged young, and annual site fidelity for owls nesting on golf courses was higher than for owls nesting off golf courses. However, annual fecundity of owls nesting on golf courses was lower than that of owls nesting off golf courses. If golf courses have sufficiently large nonmaintained areas and there are nesting owls nearby, course managers potentially can help in restoring local burrowing owl populations by installing artificial nesting burrows on the periphery of the course. However, the low fecundity on golf courses reported here should be more thoroughly examined before artificial burrows are used to attract owls to golf courses.

  10. Burrows of the semi-terrestrial crab Ucides cordatus enhance CO2 release in a North Brazilian mangrove forest.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nathalie Pülmanns

    Full Text Available Ucides cordatus is an abundant mangrove crab in Brazil constructing burrows of up to 2 m depth. Sediment around burrows may oxidize during low tides. This increase in sediment-air contact area may enhance carbon degradation processes. We hypothesized that 1 the sediment CO2 efflux rate is greater with burrows than without and 2 the reduction potential in radial profiles in the sediment surrounding the burrows decreases gradually, until approximating non-bioturbated conditions. Sampling was conducted during the North Brazilian wet season at neap tides. CO2 efflux rates of inhabited burrows and plain sediment were measured with a CO2/H2O gas analyzer connected to a respiration chamber. Sediment redox potential, pH and temperature were measured in the sediment surrounding the burrows at horizontal distances of 2, 5, 8 and 15 cm at four sediment depths (1, 10, 30 and 50 cm and rH values were calculated. Sediment cores (50 cm length were taken to measure the same parameters for plain sediment. CO2 efflux rates of plain sediment and individual crab burrows with entrance diameters of 7 cm were 0.7-1.3 µmol m(-2 s(-1 and 0.2-0.4 µmol burrows(-1 s(-1, respectively. CO2 released from a Rhizophora mangle dominated forest with an average of 1.7 U. cordatus burrows(-1 m(-2 yielded 1.0-1.7 µmol m(-2 s(-1, depending on the month and burrow entrance diameter. Laboratory experiments revealed that 20-60% of the CO2 released by burrows originated from crab respiration. Temporal changes in the reduction potential in the sediment surrounding the burrows did not influence the CO2 release from burrows. More oxidized conditions of plain sediment over time may explain the increase in CO2 release until the end of the wet season. CO2 released by U. cordatus and their burrows may be a significant pathway of CO2 export from mangrove sediments and should be considered in mangrove carbon budget estimates.

  11. Burrows of the semi-terrestrial crab Ucides cordatus enhance CO2 release in a North Brazilian mangrove forest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pülmanns, Nathalie; Diele, Karen; Mehlig, Ulf; Nordhaus, Inga

    2014-01-01

    Ucides cordatus is an abundant mangrove crab in Brazil constructing burrows of up to 2 m depth. Sediment around burrows may oxidize during low tides. This increase in sediment-air contact area may enhance carbon degradation processes. We hypothesized that 1) the sediment CO2 efflux rate is greater with burrows than without and 2) the reduction potential in radial profiles in the sediment surrounding the burrows decreases gradually, until approximating non-bioturbated conditions. Sampling was conducted during the North Brazilian wet season at neap tides. CO2 efflux rates of inhabited burrows and plain sediment were measured with a CO2/H2O gas analyzer connected to a respiration chamber. Sediment redox potential, pH and temperature were measured in the sediment surrounding the burrows at horizontal distances of 2, 5, 8 and 15 cm at four sediment depths (1, 10, 30 and 50 cm) and rH values were calculated. Sediment cores (50 cm length) were taken to measure the same parameters for plain sediment. CO2 efflux rates of plain sediment and individual crab burrows with entrance diameters of 7 cm were 0.7-1.3 µmol m(-2) s(-1) and 0.2-0.4 µmol burrows(-1) s(-1), respectively. CO2 released from a Rhizophora mangle dominated forest with an average of 1.7 U. cordatus burrows(-1) m(-2) yielded 1.0-1.7 µmol m(-2) s(-1), depending on the month and burrow entrance diameter. Laboratory experiments revealed that 20-60% of the CO2 released by burrows originated from crab respiration. Temporal changes in the reduction potential in the sediment surrounding the burrows did not influence the CO2 release from burrows. More oxidized conditions of plain sediment over time may explain the increase in CO2 release until the end of the wet season. CO2 released by U. cordatus and their burrows may be a significant pathway of CO2 export from mangrove sediments and should be considered in mangrove carbon budget estimates.

  12. Burrow characteristics of the co-existing sibling species Mus booduga and Mus terricolor and the genetic basis of adaptation to hypoxic/hypercapnic stress

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    Narayan Gopeshwar

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The co-existing, sibling species Mus booduga and Mus terricolor show a difference in site-preference for burrows. The former build them in flat portion of the fields while the latter make burrows in earthen mounds raised for holding water in cultivated fields. In northern India which experiences great variation in climatic condition between summer and winter, M. booduga burrows have an average depth of 41 cm, as against 30 cm in southern India with less climatic fluctuation. M. terricolor burrows are about 20 cm deep everywhere. The three chromosomal species M. terricolor I, II and III have identical burrows, including location of the nest which is situated at the highest position. In contrast, in M. booduga burrows, the nest is at the lowest position. Results The nest chamber of M. booduga is located at greater depth than the nest chamber of M. terricolor. Also, in the burrows of M. booduga the exchange of air takes place only from one side (top surface in contrast to the burrows of M. terricolor where air exchange is through three sides. Hence, M. booduga lives in relatively more hypoxic and hypercapnic conditions than M. terricolor. We observed the fixation of alternative alleles in M. booduga and M. terricolor at Superoxide dismutase-1 (Sod-1, Transferrin (Trf and Hemoglobin beta chain (Hbb loci. All the three are directly or indirectly dependent on oxygen concentration for function. In addition to these, there are differences in burrow patterns and site-preference for burrows suggesting difference in probable adaptive strategy in these co-existing sibling species. Conclusion The burrow structure and depth of nest of the chromosomal species M. terricolor I, II and III are same everywhere probably due to the recency of their evolutionary divergence. Moreover, there is lack of competition for the well-adapted 'microhabitats' since they are non-overlapping in distribution. However, the co-existing sibling species M. booduga

  13. Burrows of the Semi-Terrestrial Crab Ucides cordatus Enhance CO2 Release in a North Brazilian Mangrove Forest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pülmanns, Nathalie; Diele, Karen; Mehlig, Ulf; Nordhaus, Inga

    2014-01-01

    Ucides cordatus is an abundant mangrove crab in Brazil constructing burrows of up to 2 m depth. Sediment around burrows may oxidize during low tides. This increase in sediment-air contact area may enhance carbon degradation processes. We hypothesized that 1) the sediment CO2 efflux rate is greater with burrows than without and 2) the reduction potential in radial profiles in the sediment surrounding the burrows decreases gradually, until approximating non-bioturbated conditions. Sampling was conducted during the North Brazilian wet season at neap tides. CO2 efflux rates of inhabited burrows and plain sediment were measured with a CO2/H2O gas analyzer connected to a respiration chamber. Sediment redox potential, pH and temperature were measured in the sediment surrounding the burrows at horizontal distances of 2, 5, 8 and 15 cm at four sediment depths (1, 10, 30 and 50 cm) and rH values were calculated. Sediment cores (50 cm length) were taken to measure the same parameters for plain sediment. CO2 efflux rates of plain sediment and individual crab burrows with entrance diameters of 7 cm were 0.7–1.3 µmol m−2 s−1 and 0.2–0.4 µmol burrows−1 s−1, respectively. CO2 released from a Rhizophora mangle dominated forest with an average of 1.7 U. cordatus burrows−1 m−2 yielded 1.0–1.7 µmol m−2 s−1, depending on the month and burrow entrance diameter. Laboratory experiments revealed that 20–60% of the CO2 released by burrows originated from crab respiration. Temporal changes in the reduction potential in the sediment surrounding the burrows did not influence the CO2 release from burrows. More oxidized conditions of plain sediment over time may explain the increase in CO2 release until the end of the wet season. CO2 released by U. cordatus and their burrows may be a significant pathway of CO2 export from mangrove sediments and should be considered in mangrove carbon budget estimates. PMID:25313661

  14. Like night and day: Reversals of thermal gradients across ghost crab burrows and their implications for thermal ecology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watson, Gregory S.; Gregory, Emily A.; Johnstone, Charmaine; Berlino, Manuel; Green, David W.; Peterson, Nicola R.; Schoeman, David S.; Watson, Jolanta A.

    2018-04-01

    Ghost crabs, Ocypode cordimanus, inhabit relatively hostile environments subject to thermal fluctuations, including both diurnal and seasonal cycles. For many ectotherms, including ghost crabs, a major challenge is to remain cool during hot daytime temperatures. This can be achieved by adopting a fossorial lifestyle, taking advantage of thermal refuge afforded by burrows of sufficient depth. Another consideration, often overlooked, is the potential advantage associated with ready access to a thermal energy source (a "charging station") when surface temperatures are cooler. Being able to rapidly elevate body temperature during cool periods would enhance the crab's ability to maintain rate processes and carry out essential activities. We have measured ghost crab burrow temperature profiles at two times of the day with contrasting sun exposure (06:00 and 14:00), demonstrating how effective burrow depth (up to a maximum of 40 cm) provides thermal regulation below the surface of the sand (e.g., at dawn (06:00) and early afternoon (14:00) at a depth of 5 cm, temperatures (±SD) of 16.32 ± 0.96 °C and 25.04 ± 1.47 °C were recorded, respectively. Corresponding temperatures at a depth of 30 cm were 19.17 ± 0.59 °C and 19.78 ± 1.60 °C, respectively). This demonstrates that while temperature conditions at the surface vary dramatically from night to day, ghost crab burrows can maintain relatively constant temperatures at the burrow base throughout the diurnal cycle, at least during winter. As a consequence, the burrow heat signatures undergo a corresponding thermal gradient reversal between night and day, as revealed by infra-red photography. Complementing these field observations, we also determined heating and cooling times/constants for O. cordimanus in the laboratory (τ = 17.54 and 16.59 JK-1, respectively), and analysed chemical composition of their carapace (external (with β Chitin evident) and internal (predominance of α Chitin)), which is the primary thermal

  15. Rodent burrows in late Pleistocene paleosols at Korean Palaeolithic sites and their implications for paleoclimate changes

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    Lim, H.; Park, S.; Lee, J.; Lee, Y.

    2013-12-01

    Rodent burrows are commonly found at many Paleolithic archaeological sites in Korea. They are nearly straight in horizontal view and gently inclined in lateral view. Burrow diameters are mostly 7 - 10cm, and burrow length may reach a few meters. Vertical penetration depths are generally about 1 m from the surface, and the thickness of the burrow-bearing layer is about 1-2 m. Although no remains (bones, teeth, claws, and coprolites) were found within burrows, they are interpreted to have been produced by rodent-like mammals (probably ground squirrels) based on the size and architecture. According to the previous study, the age of these burrows was constrained to be between ca. 40,000 and 25,000 yr BP by tephrochronology, radiocarbon and optically stimulated luminescence dating results (Lim et al., 2007). However, little is known about the reason why these burrows have disappeared after late Pleistocene time. For this question, two explanations can be considered: extinction or migration. Since same kinds of burrows are still found in the high-latitude regions, such as Mongolia and North America, the possibility of extinction can be ruled out. Therefore, migration seems to be the most likely explanation. Our results show that the destruction of habitat caused by climate change during this period is the main reason for the northward migration of burrowing animals. This study suggests that rodent burrows found in the late Pleistocene paleosols can provide useful information on paleoclimate and paleoenvironmental changes.

  16. Mechanics and Energetics of Excavation by Burrowing Wolf Spiders, Geolycosa spp.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suter, Robert B.; Stratton, Gail E.; Miller, Patricia R.

    2011-01-01

    Burrowing wolf spiders, Geolycosa sp. (Araneae:Lycosidae), excavate vertical burrows and inhabit them throughout their lives or, in the case of males, until they mature and wander in search of mates. Three species: G. fatifera Kurata, G. missouriensis Banks, and G. rogersi Wallace were studied to understand how and at what expense the burrowing is accomplished. Normal and high-speed videography coupled with scanning electron microscopy revealed (a) that the convex surfaces of the two fangs, together, constitute the digging tool, (b) that boluses of soil are transported to the burrow entrance on the anterior surfaces of the chelicerae held there by the pedipalps, and (c) that each bolus is either incorporated into the growing turret or flung away, propelled by the forelegs. To elucidate the energetics of burrow construction, burrow volumes were calculated and then the costs associated with dislodging, elevating, and throwing the known volumes of soil were measured. A typical Geolycosa burrow, at a volume of 23.6 ± 2.0 ml and a depth of 13.2 ± 0.7 cm, required the removal of 918 boluses each weighing about 34 mg. The aggregate dislodging cost was close to 1.9 Joules in sand/sandy loam and 5.6 J in clayey subsoil, the work against gravity necessary to raise all of the boluses to the surface was about 0.13 J, and the aggregate cost of flinging the boluses was close to 0.014 J. Assuming that the ratio of external work to metabolic cost of external work is between 0.20 and 0.25 in spiders, the real cost of burrow construction would be between 8 J and 29 J, depending primarily on soil type. This is a small but not negligible cost when placed in the context of reproductive effort: a single Geolycosa egg, dozens to hundreds of which are produced in a clutch, contains about 10 J. PMID:21529154

  17. Forecasted Flood Depth Grids Providing Early Situational Awareness to FEMA during the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, M.; Longenecker, H. E., III

    2017-12-01

    The 2017 hurricane season brought the unprecedented landfall of three Category 4 hurricanes (Harvey, Irma and Maria). FEMA is responsible for coordinating the federal response and recovery efforts for large disasters such as these. FEMA depends on timely and accurate depth grids to estimate hazard exposure, model damage assessments, plan flight paths for imagery acquisition, and prioritize response efforts. In order to produce riverine or coastal depth grids based on observed flooding, the methodology requires peak crest water levels at stream gauges, tide gauges, high water marks, and best-available elevation data. Because peak crest data isn't available until the apex of a flooding event and high water marks may take up to several weeks for field teams to collect for a large-scale flooding event, final observed depth grids are not available to FEMA until several days after a flood has begun to subside. Within the last decade NOAA's National Weather Service (NWS) has implemented the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS), a web-based suite of accurate forecast products that provide hydrograph forecasts at over 3,500 stream gauge locations across the United States. These forecasts have been newly implemented into an automated depth grid script tool, using predicted instead of observed water levels, allowing FEMA access to flood hazard information up to 3 days prior to a flooding event. Water depths are calculated from the AHPS predicted flood stages and are interpolated at 100m spacing along NHD hydrolines within the basin of interest. A water surface elevation raster is generated from these water depths using an Inverse Distance Weighted interpolation. Then, elevation (USGS NED 30m) is subtracted from the water surface elevation raster so that the remaining values represent the depth of predicted flooding above the ground surface. This automated process requires minimal user input and produced forecasted depth grids that were comparable to post

  18. Dusk but not dawn burrow emergence rhythms of Nephrops norvegicus (Crustacea: Decapoda

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    Valerio Sbragaglia

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available The Norway lobster, Nephrops norvegicus, can be captured by haul nets only during the emergence from its burrow. In the last few decades, an extensive field research revealed distinct diel (24-h–based catchability patterns at different depths. Laboratory experiments suggested that burrow emergence (used as a proxy of catchability is endogenously controlled via a circadian system. Results were usually presented in terms of mean effects without a quantification of inter-individual variability and arrhythmia. Here, we studied the burrow emergence of 52 adult Nephrops by an infrared actograph endowed with an artificial burrow. Animals were exposed to 12-12 h light-darkness cycle, simulating photic condition of the lower shelf. Forty-five animals showed rhythmic emergence (87%, while seven were arrhythmic (13%. Rhythmic animals were clustered according to their timing of emergence: 54% at dusk and 4% at dawn. Moreover, other animals showed fully diurnal or nocturnal emergence (10% and 19%, respectively. The comparison of our results with those derived from temporally scheduled trawling indicates that bimodal catch patterns observed in shelf populations are poorly observed during individual experiments in the laboratory, where the same light conditions are simulated. Nephrops burrow emergence seems to be the result of a mixed endogenous-exogenous control, while arrhythmia could also be present in the wild.

  19. Burrowing Owls, Pulex irritans, and Plague.

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    Belthoff, James R; Bernhardt, Scott A; Ball, Christopher L; Gregg, Michael; Johnson, David H; Ketterling, Rachel; Price, Emily; Tinker, Juliette K

    2015-09-01

    Western Burrowing Owls (Athene cunicularia hypugaea) are small, ground-dwelling owls of western North America that frequent prairie dog (Cynomys spp.) towns and other grasslands. Because they rely on rodent prey and occupy burrows once or concurrently inhabited by fossorial mammals, the owls often harbor fleas. We examined the potential role of fleas found on burrowing owls in plague dynamics by evaluating prevalence of Yersinia pestis in fleas collected from burrowing owls and in owl blood. During 2012-2013, fleas and blood were collected from burrowing owls in portions of five states with endemic plague-Idaho, Oregon, Washington, Colorado, and South Dakota. Fleas were enumerated, taxonomically identified, pooled by nest, and assayed for Y. pestis using culturing and molecular (PCR) approaches. Owl blood underwent serological analysis for plague antibodies and nested PCR for detection of Y. pestis. Of more than 4750 fleas collected from owls, Pulex irritans, a known plague vector in portions of its range, comprised more than 99.4%. However, diagnostic tests for Y. pestis of flea pools (culturing and PCR) and owl blood (PCR and serology) were negative. Thus, even though fleas were prevalent on burrowing owls and the potential for a relationship with burrowing owls as a phoretic host of infected fleas exists, we found no evidence of Y. pestis in sampled fleas or in owls that harbored them. We suggest that studies similar to those reported here during plague epizootics will be especially useful for confirming these results.

  20. Sedimentary organic matter distributions, burrowing activity, and biogeochemical cycling: Natural patterns and experimental artifacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michaud, Emma; Aller, Robert, C.; Stora, Georges

    2010-11-01

    The coupling between biogenic reworking activity and reactive organic matter patterns within deposits is poorly understood and often ignored. In this study, we examined how common experimental treatments of sediment affect the burrowing behavior of the polychaete Nephtys incisa and how these effects may interact with reactive organic matter distributions to alter diagenetic transport - reaction balances. Sediment and animals were recovered from a subtidal site in central Long Island Sound, USA. The upper 15 cm of the sediment was sectioned into sub-intervals, and each interval separately sieved and homogenized. Three initial distributions of sediment and organic substrate reactivity were setup in a series of microcosms: (1) a reconstituted natural pattern with surface-derived sediment overlying sediment obtained from progressively deeper material to a depth of 15 cm (Natural); (2) a 15 cm thick sediment layer composed only of surface-derived sediment (Rich); and (3) a 15 cm thick layer composed of uniformally mixed sediment from the original 15 cm sediment profile (Averaged). The two last treatments are comparable to that used in microcosms in many previous studies of bioturbation and interspecific functional interaction experiments. Sediment grain size distributions were 97.5% silt-clay and showed no depth dependent patterns. Sediment porosity gradients were slightly altered by the treatments. Nepthys were reintroduced and aquariums were X-rayed regularly over 5 months to visualize and quantify spatial and temporal dynamics of burrows. The burrowing behaviour of adult populations having similar total biovolume, biomass, abundance, and individual sizes differed substantially as a function of treatment. Burrows in sediment with natural property gradients were much shallower and less dense than those in microcosms with altered gradients. The burrow volume/biovolume ratio was also lower in the substrate with natural organic reactivity gradients. Variation in food

  1. Use of Artificial Burrows by Burrowing Owls (Athene cunicularia) at the HAMMER Facility on the U.S. Department of Energy Hanford Site

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Alexander, Amanda K.; Sackschewsky, Michael R.; Duberstein, Corey A.

    2005-09-30

    In 2003 the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) constructed an Emergency Vehicle Operations Course (EVOC) at the Hazardous Material Management and Emergency Response Training and Education Center (HAMMER) in the southern portion of the Hanford Site. Preliminary surveys during 2001 identified an active burrowing owl (Athene cunicularia) burrow and three burrowing owls within the proposed development area. Burrowing owls were classified as a federal species of concern, a Washington State ?candidate? species, a Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife priority species, and a Hanford Site Biological Resources Management Plan Level III resource. Therefore, the mitigation action plan for the project included the installation of twenty artificial burrows around EVOC in the spring of 2003. The mitigation plan established a success criterion of five percent annual use of the burrows by owls. In July 2005, a field survey of the EVOC burrow complex was conducted to determine use and demography at each site. Burrow locations were mapped and signs of activity (feces, owl tracks, castings, feathers) were recorded. Out of the twenty burrows, twelve were found to be active. Of the eight inactive burrows three appeared to have been active earlier in the 2005 breeding season. A total of nineteen owls were counted but demography could not be determined. It appears that the EVOC mitigation exceeded burrow use goals during 2005. Continued site monitoring and maintenance, according to mitigation plan guidelines should be conducted as prescribed.

  2. The burrows of Parastacus defossus (Decapoda: Parastacidae, a fossorial freshwater crayfish from southern Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Clarissa K. Noro

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available Parastacus defossus Faxon, 1898 is a fossorial crayfish species, which constructs its burrows in swampy areas in southeast Uruguay and in the state of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil. The present field study was carried out in Lami, Porto Alegre, Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil, from May 2003 through August 2005. Environmental measurements (temperature, pH, dissolved oxygen, and water-table depth of the water in the galleries were made monthly. Burrow morphology was analyzed by means of resin and gypsum casts. The spatial distribution and changes in the number and shape of the surface openings over time were observed in a 100 m² area. To estimate the spatial distribution of the openings, the observed distribution was compared with the expected distribution predicted by the Poisson and Negative Binomial frequency-distribution models. The adult population density was estimated by direct observation of burrows and counts in the study area. Inside the burrows of P. defossus, the water temperature ranged between 16.6°C (autumn 2004 and 23°C (spring 2003. The water was hypoxic and slightly acidic, and the dissolved oxygen content was very low (mean 1.43 mg/l (18.2% saturation. The soil with burrows had higher percentages of coarse sand, fine sand, and silt. The spatial distribution of the openings showed a significant fit to the Negative Binomial distribution, indicating that the distribution of the openings is aggregated, as confirmed from the burrow morphology. The galleries are always formed by a central tunnel with multiple branchings that connect the underground water to the soil surface by one or more openings, which can be recognized by the chimneys. From knowledge of the burrow morphology, the population density was estimated to be about 120 individuals/100 m².

  3. Short Communications Sand moisture as a factor determining depth ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    1993-11-05

    Nov 5, 1993 ... The depths to which the animals burrow are, at least partly. determined by the moisture gradient in the sand. They are, however, incapable of burrowing into totally dry sand. Animals alter their position in the sand in response to changes in moisture content so as to ensure exposure to suitable conditions.

  4. Orofacial neuropathic pain reduces spontaneous burrowing behavior in rats.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deseure, K; Hans, G

    2018-07-01

    It was recently reported that spontaneous burrowing behavior is decreased after tibial nerve transection, spinal nerve transection and partial sciatic nerve ligation. It was proposed that spontaneous burrowing could be used as a measure of the impact of neuropathic pain after peripheral nerve injury. It has remained unclear whether the reduction in burrowing behavior is caused directly by pain or hypersensitivity in the affected limbs, making it more difficult to perform burrowing, or by a pain induced decrease in the general wellbeing, thus reducing the motivation to burrow. We studied burrowing behavior after infraorbital nerve injury, a model of orofacial neuropathic pain that does not affect the limbs. Burrowing behavior was significantly reduced after infraorbital nerve injury. Isolated face grooming and responsiveness to mechanical von Frey stimulation of the infraorbital nerve territory were significantly increased after infraorbital nerve injury, indicative, respectively, of spontaneous pain and mechanical allodynia. It is concluded that spontaneous burrowing may provide a measure of the global impact of pain on the animal's wellbeing after peripheral nerve injury and incorporation of this behavioral assay in preclinical drug testing may improve the predictive validity of currently used pain models. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. Ventilation of multi-entranced rodent burrows by boundary layer eddies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brickner-Braun, Inbal; Zucker-Milwerger, Daniel; Braun, Avi; Turner, J Scott; Pinshow, Berry; Berliner, Pedro

    2014-12-01

    Rodent burrows are often assumed to be environments wherein the air has a high concentration of CO₂. Although high burrow [CO₂] has been recorded, many studies report burrow [CO₂] that differs only slightly from atmospheric concentrations. Here, we advocate that one of the reasons for these differences is the penetration into burrows of air gusts (eddies), which originate in the turbulent boundary layer and prevent build-up of CO₂. We have characterized the means by which burrows of Sundevall's jird, which are representative of the burrows of many rodent species with more than one entrance, are ventilated. Our results demonstrate that, even at low wind speeds, the random penetration of eddies into a burrow through its openings is sufficient to keep the burrow [CO₂] low enough to be physiologically inconsequential, even in its deep and remote parts. © 2014. Published by The Company of Biologists Ltd.

  6. Shrimp burrow in tropical seagrass meadows: An important sink for litter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vonk, Jan Arie; Kneer, Dominik; Stapel, Johan; Asmus, Harald

    2008-08-01

    The abundance, burrow characteristics, and in situ behaviour of the burrowing shrimps Neaxius acanthus (Decapoda: Strahlaxiidae) and Alpheus macellarius (Decapoda: Alpheidae) were studied to quantify the collection of seagrass material, to identify the fate of this collected material, and to determine the importance of these burrowing crustaceans in the nutrient (nitrogen and phosphorus) cycling of two tropical seagrass meadows on Bone Batang, South Sulawesi, Indonesia. Alpheus macellarius harvested 0.70 g dry weight (DW) burrow -1 d -1 seagrass material, dominantly by active cutting of fresh seagrass leaves. Neaxius acanthus collected 1.66 g DW burrow -1 d -1, mainly detached leaves which floated past the burrow opening. The A. macellarius and N. acanthus communities together collected in their burrows an amount of seagrass leaf material corresponding to more than 50% of the leaf production in the meadows studied. The crustacean species studied might therefore fulfil an important function in the nutrient cycling of tropical meadows. In the burrow most of the collected material is shredded into pieces. The burrows of both species had special chambers which serve as a storage for seagrass leaf material. Neaxius acanthus incorporated most of the material into the burrow wall lining, which is made of small sediment particles and macerated seagrass leaves. Phosphate concentrations measured in N. acanthus burrows compared with pore-water and water-column concentrations suggests that a substantial amount of the seagrass material undergoes decomposition in the burrows. Oxygen levels measured in these water bodies are indicative for a possible exchange of water between the burrow and its surroundings, most likely supported by the shrimps irrigating their burrows. By collecting leaf material in their burrows, nutrients that are otherwise lost from the seagrass meadow associated with detached leaves and leaf fragments carried away in the water column, are maintained in the

  7. The influence of small-mammal burrowing activity on water storage at the Hanford Site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Landeen, D.S.

    1994-01-01

    This paper summarizes the activities that were conducted in support of the long-term surface barrier development program by Westinghouse Hanford Company to determine the degree that small-mammal burrow systems affect the loss or retention of water in the soils at the Hanford Site in Washington state. An animal intrusion lysimeter facility was constructed, consisting of two outer boxes buried at grade, which served as receptacles for six animal intrusion lysimeters. Small burrowing animals common the Hanford Site were introduced over a 3- to 4-month period. Supplemental precipitation was added monthly to three of the lysimeters with a rainfall simulator (rainulator). Information collected from the five tests indicated that (1) during summer months, water was lost in all the lysimeters, including the supplemental precipitation added with the rainulator; and (2) during winter months, all lysimeters gained water. The data indicate little difference in the amount of water stored between control and animal lysimeters. The overall water loss was attributed to surface evaporation, a process that occurred equally in control and treatment lysimeters. Other causes of water loss are a result of (1) constant soil turnover and subsequent drying, and (2) burrow ventilation effects. This suggests that burrow systems will not contribute to any significant water storage at depth and, in fact, may enhance the removal of water from the soil

  8. Burrowing Owl Monitoring Report for Calendar Year 2012

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wilde, Justin W.; Lindsey, Cole T.; Nugent, John J.

    2013-03-14

    The monitoring during 2012 focused on documenting the status of known burrows. Newly identified burrows were documented while examining historical locations, during ecological resource reviews, or discovered during other monitoring efforts. The timing of the monitoring effort allowed staff to perform the surveys without disrupting any breeding or hatching, while also allowing for easy discernment of adults from juveniles, which helped in determining burrow-use type.

  9. Role of burrowing activities of the Great Basin pocket mouse (Perognathus parvus) in the dispersal of radionuclides on a decommissioned pond

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Landeen, D.S.; Mitchell, R.M.

    1982-08-01

    The intrusion of waste burial sites by animals is a common occurrence at nuclear waste facilities. This study identifies parameters associated with burrowing activities of the Great Basin Pocket Mouse at the Hanford Site in southeastern Washington. The objectives of the study were to: (1) document and compare burrow depths on a control site and a decommissioned radioactive waste pond and (2) document 137 Cs concentrations in pocket mice and the soil mounds created by their burrowing activities. Pocket mice burrowed deeper in the backfilled burial site (anti x = 72 cm) than they did in the control site (anti x = 38 cm). The small amounts of 137 Cs found in the mice were an order of magnitude below what was present in the mounds. This indicates that the burrowing habits of these mice and subsequent mound construction may be more important in terms of radionuclide dispersal than the small amounts contained within their bodies. The 137 Cs values reported in the mice and mounds are below Rockwell Hanford Operations (Rockwell) surface soil contamination limits. Information received from test plots will be used in formulating appropriate control mechanisms which may be deployed in the future. In the interim, surface stabilization efforts are being conducted on waste sites to control and deter burrowing animals

  10. Habitat selection by two species of burrowing mayfly nymphs in the Les Cheneaux Islands region of northern Lake Huron

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blouin, Marc A.; Hudson, Patrick; Chriscinske, Margret

    2004-01-01

    This study focused primarily on the habitat preferences of Hexagenia limbata andEphemera simulans, two species prevalent in northern Lake Huron, to gain a better understanding of the key components that determined their distribution and abundance. Both species preferred habitats based upon depth and sediment type. In addition, the burrowing activity of H. limbata was examined using in-situ, underwater sampling techniques specifically designed for the study. SCUBA divers made resin casts and took clear sediment cores in order to study how the burrow densities of H. limbata related to the sediment: water volume ratios. H. limbata contributed to the bioturbation and sediment porosity in specific, fine-sediment habitats. Younger age classes of this species utilized the burrows of their larger cohorts, an adaptation that could allow for energy savings and optimized growth.

  11. Using ground penetrating radar in levee assessment to detect small scale animal burrows

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chlaib, Hussein K.; Mahdi, Hanan; Al-Shukri, Haydar; Su, Mehmet M.; Catakli, Aycan; Abd, Najah

    2014-04-01

    Levees are civil engineering structures built to protect human lives, property, and agricultural lands during flood events. To keep these important structures in a safe condition, continuous monitoring must be performed regularly and thoroughly. Small rodent burrows are one of the major defects within levees; however, their early detection and repair helps in protecting levees during flooding events. A set of laboratory experiments was conducted to analyze the polarity change in GPR signals in the presence of subsurface voids and water-filled cavities. Ground Penetrating Radar (GPR) surveys using multi frequency antennas (400 MHz and 900 MHz) were conducted along an 875 meter section of the Lollie Levee near Conway, Arkansas, USA, to assess the levee's structural integrity. Many subsurface animal burrows, water-filled cavities, clay clasts, and metallic objects were investigated and identified. These anomalies were located at different depths and have different sizes. To ground truth the observations, hand dug trenches were excavated to confirm several anomalies. Results show an excellent match between GPR interpreted anomalies and the observed features. In-situ dielectric constant measurements were used to calculate the feature depths. The results of this research show that the 900 MHz antenna has more advantages over the 400 MHz antenna.

  12. Burrowing behavior as an indicator of post-laparotomy pain in mice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paulin Jirkof

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Detection of persistent pain of a mild-to-moderate degree in laboratory mice is difficult because mice do not show unambiguous symptoms of pain or suffering using standard methods of short-term observational or clinical monitoring. This study investigated the potential use of burrowing performance — a spontaneous and highly motivated behavior — as a measure of post-operative pain in laboratory mice. The influence of minor surgery on burrowing was investigated in adult C57BL/6J mice of both genders in a modified rodent burrowing test (displacement of food pellets from a pellet-filled tube within the animal’s home cage. Almost all (98% healthy mice burrowed (mean latency 1.3 h, SEM 0.5 h. After surgery without pain treatment, latency of burrowing was significantly prolonged (mean ∆ latency 10 h. Analgesic treatment using the anti-inflammatory drug carprofen (5 mg/kg bodyweight decreased latency of burrowing after surgery (mean ∆ latency 5.5 h to the level found in mice that had been anaesthetised (mean ∆ latency 5.3 h or had received anaesthesia and analgesia (mean ∆ latency 4.6 h. Analgesia during surgery was associated with a significantly earlier onset of burrowing compared to surgery without pain treatment. A distinct gradation in burrowing performance was found ranging from the undisturbed pre-operative status to the intermediate level following anaesthesia/analgesia and surgery with analgesia, to the pronounced prolongation of latency to burrow after surgery without pain relief. In conclusion, post-surgical impairment of general condition, probably mainly attributable to pain, can be conveniently assessed in laboratory mice on the basis of the burrowing test.

  13. The effects of two free-floating plants (Eichhornia crassipes and Pistia stratiotes on the burrow morphology and water quality characteristics of pond loach (Misgurnus anguillicaudatus habitat

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jinqing Wang

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Loach exhibit conspicuous drilling behaviors in the mud of shallow waters, yet their burrow morphology and the factors affecting this behavior have received little attention. We characterized the burrow morphology and water quality of the pond loach Misgurnus anguillicaudatus in three scenarios: in tanks without plants, tanks with the free-floating plant water hyacinth Eichhornia crassipes, and tanks with water lettuce Pistia stratiotes. Water hyacinth effectively removed water TN, COD, NO3-N and NH4-N, and water lettuce removed water TP and NH4-N. Water hyacinth and water lettuce markedly reduced water turbidity and DO, increased TOC and EC. Water hyacinth purified water more effectively than water lettuce, providing a suitable habitat for loach feeding, living and burrowing. The burrow structures were V-shaped, Y-shaped, inverted L-shaped, or complicated dendritic networks composed of multiple V shapes. The hyacinth treatment was characterized by the greatest burrow volume, length, depth, and structural complexity, but the opening size was reduced by dense root mat coverage. Burrows in the water lettuce treatment were characterized by intermediate volume, length, branches and sinuosity, but they had the largest opening and pit size. The control treatment had a flat bottom with the smallest, shortest burrows. This study indicates that free-floating plants improve habitat suitability and change burrow morphology and may be used to improve loach breeding methods.

  14. Priming effect in topsoil and subsoil induced by earthworm burrows

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thu, Duyen Hoang Thi

    2017-04-01

    Earthworms (Lumbricus terrestris L.) not only affect soil physics, but they also boost microbial activities and consequently important hotspots of microbial mediated carbon and C turnover through their burrowing activity. However, it is still unknown to which extend earthworms affect priming effect in top- and subsoil horizons. More labile C inputs in earthworm burrows were hypothesized to trigger higher priming of soil organic matter (SOM) decomposition compared to rhizosphere and bulk soil. Moreover, this effect was expected to be more pronounced in subsoil due to its greater C and nutrient limitation. To test these hypotheses, biopores and bulk soil were sampled from topsoil (0-30 cm) and two subsoil depths (45-75 and 75-105 cm). Additionally, rhizosphere samples were taken from the topsoil. Total organic C (Corg), total N (TN), total P (TP) and enzyme activities involved in C-, N-, and P-cycling (cellobiohydrolase, β-glucosidase, xylanase, chitinase, leucine aminopeptidase and phosphatase) were measured. Priming effects were calculated as the difference in SOM-derived CO2 from soil with or without 14C-labelled glucose addition. Enzyme activities in biopores were positively correlated with Corg, TN and TP, but in bulk soil this correlation was negative. The more frequent fresh and labile C inputs to biopores caused 4 to 20 time higher absolute priming of SOM turnover due to enzyme activities that were one order of magnitude higher than in bulk soil. In subsoil biopores, reduced labile C inputs and lower N availability stimulated priming twofold greater than in topsoil. In contrast, a positive priming effect in bulk soil was only detected at 75-105 cm depth. We conclude that earthworm burrows provide not only the linkage between top- and subsoil for C and nutrients, but strongly increase microbial activities and accelerate SOM turnover in subsoil, contributing to nutrient mobilization for roots and CO2 emission increase as a greenhouse gas. Additionally, the

  15. Plant cover effect on Bolson tortoise (Gopherus flavomarginatus Legler 1959, Testudinidae burrow use

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jorge Luis Becerra-López

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The Bolson tortoise, Gopherus flavomarginatus, occurs within a restricted geographical area in the Mexican Chihuahuan Desert. We analyzed the variation in surface microhabitat with relation to the burrow occupancy for this tortoise at the Mapimí Biosphere Reserve, Mexico. In summer 2010, we monitored burrow activity (active, inactive, or abandoned and measured environmental factors that might influence the burrow’s occupancy by tortoises (air temperature, relative humidity and substrate temperature, both inside and outside the burrow, and the plant cover around it. Discriminant analysis was used to identify the importance of these variables influencing burrow occupancy. Correlation and linear regression analyses were performed to quantify the relation between environmental factors in the sampled burrows. Results. Sixty-one burrows were identified at the Tortugas locality. The first function’s auto-value analysis indicates that this function explains 97.9% of the variation in burrow activity status; high occupancy scores were associated with low substrate temperature inside the burrow. Plant cover was inversely proportional to substrate temperature inside the burrow. These results suggest the importance the density of plants surrounding the tortoise’s burrow as a key factor influencing the burrow microclimate and occupancy by the tortoises. Conclusions. Gopherus flavomarginatus inhabits burrows, in part, based on microhabitat structure, with plant cover being a main factor influencing burrow occupancy. Our findings indicate that human land use and vegetation management are important for conserving Bolson tortoises, and for understanding habitat conditions necessary for the successful establishment of populations elsewhere.

  16. Burrow architecture of the Damaraland mole-rat ( Fukomys ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The burrow architecture (length, internal dimensions, fractal dimension of tunnel systems, number of nesting chambers and surface mounds) was investigated in the Damaraland mole-rat (Fukomys damarensis). A total of 31 animals were caught from five different colonies and their burrow systems were excavated in their ...

  17. Exposure of burrowing mammals to {sup 222}Rn

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Beresford, N.A., E-mail: nab@ceh.ac.uk [NERC Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Lancaster Environment Centre, Library Av. Bailrigg, Lancaster LA1 4AP (United Kingdom); Barnett, C.L. [NERC Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Lancaster Environment Centre, Library Av. Bailrigg, Lancaster LA1 4AP (United Kingdom); Vives i Batlle, J. [Belgian Nuclear Research Centre (SCK-CEN), Boeretang 200, 2400 Mol (Belgium); Potter, E.D. [NERC Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Lancaster Environment Centre, Library Av. Bailrigg, Lancaster LA1 4AP (United Kingdom); Ibrahimi, Z.-F. [Health Protection Agency, Centre for Radiation, Chemical and Environmental Hazards, Chilton, Didcot OX11 0RQ (United Kingdom); Barlow, T.S.; Schieb, C.; Jones, D.G. [British Geological Survey, Environmental Science Centre, Keyworth, Nottingham NG12 5GG (United Kingdom); Copplestone, D. [School of Natural Sciences, University of Stirling, Stirling FK9 4LA (United Kingdom)

    2012-08-01

    Estimates of absorbed dose rates to wildlife from exposure to natural background radionuclides are required to put estimates of dose rates arising from regulated releases of radioactivity and proposed benchmarks into context. Recent review papers have estimated dose rates to wildlife from {sup 40}K, and {sup 238}U and {sup 232}Th series radionuclides. However, only one study previous has considered the potential dose rates to burrowing animals from inhaled {sup 222}Rn and its daughter products. In this paper we describe a study conducted at seven sites in northwest England. Passive track etch detectors were used to measure the {sup 222}Rn concentrations in artificial burrows over a period of approximately one year. Results suggest that absorbed dose rates to burrowing mammals as a consequence of exposure to {sup 222}Rn are likely to be at least an order of magnitude higher than those suggested in previous evaluations of natural background exposure rates which had omitted this radionuclide and exposure pathway. Dose rates in some areas of Great Britain will be considerably in excess of incremental no-effects benchmark dose rates suggested for use as screening levels. Such advised benchmark dose rates need to be better put into context with background dose rates, including exposure to {sup 222}Rn, to ensure credibility; although the context will be determined by the purpose of the benchmark and the assessment level. - Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Determined {sup 222}Rn concentrations in artificial burrows. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Estimated dose rates to burrowing mammals from inhaled {sup 222}Rn and daughter products. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer {sup 222}Rn likely to dominate exposure of burrowing mammals due to natural radionuclides.

  18. Artificial Crab Burrows Facilitate Desalting of Rooted Mangrove Sediment in a Microcosm Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nathalie Pülmanns

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Water uptake by mangrove trees can result in salt accumulation in sediment around roots, negatively influencing growth. Tidal pumping facilitates salt release and can be enhanced by crab burrows. Similarly, flushing of burrows by incoming tidal water decreases sediment salinity. In contrast to burrows with multiple entrances, the role of burrows with one opening for salinity reduction is largely unknown. In a microcosm experiment we studied the effect of artificial, burrow-like macro-pores with one opening on the desalting of mangrove sediment and growth of Rhizophora mangle L. seedlings. Sediment salinity, seedling leaf area and seedling growth were monitored over six months. Artificial burrows facilitated salt release from the sediment after six weeks, but seedling growth was not influenced. To test whether crab burrows with one opening facilitate salt release in mangrove forests, sediment salinities were measured in areas with and without R. mangle stilt roots in North Brazil at the beginning and end of the wet season. In addition, burrows of Ucides cordatus were counted. High crab burrow densities and sediment salinities were associated with stilt root occurrence. Precipitation and salt accumulation by tree roots seem to have a larger effect on sediment salinity than desalting by U. cordatus burrows.

  19. Incorporation of microplastics from litter into burrows of Lumbricus terrestris.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huerta Lwanga, Esperanza; Gertsen, Hennie; Gooren, Harm; Peters, Piet; Salánki, Tamás; van der Ploeg, Martine; Besseling, Ellen; Koelmans, Albert A; Geissen, Violette

    2017-01-01

    Pollution caused by plastic debris is an urgent environmental problem. Here, we assessed the effects of microplastics in the soil surface litter on the formation and characterization of burrows built by the anecic earthworm Lumbricus terrestris in soil and quantified the amount of microplastics that was transported and deposited in L. terrestris burrows. Worms were exposed to soil surface litter treatments containing microplastics (Low Density Polyethylene) for 2 weeks at concentrations of 0%, 7%, 28%, 45% and 60%. The latter representing environmentally realistic concentrations found in hot spot soil locations. There were significantly more burrows found when soil was exposed to the surface treatment composed of 7% microplastics than in all other treatments. The highest amount of organic matter in the walls of the burrows was observed after using the treatments containing 28 and 45% microplastics. The highest microplastic bioturbation efficiency ratio (total microplastics (mg) in burrow walls/initial total surface litter microplastics (mg)) was found using the concentration of 7% microplastics, where L. terrestris introduced 73.5% of the surface microplastics into the burrow walls. The highest burrow wall microplastic content per unit weight of soil (11.8 ± 4.8 g kg- 1 ) was found using a concentration of 60% microplastics. L. terrestris was responsible for size-selective downward transport when exposed to concentrations of 7, 28 and 45% microplastics in the surface litter, as the fraction ≤50 μm microplastics in burrow walls increased by 65% compared to this fraction in the original surface litter plastic. We conclude that the high biogenic incorporation rate of the small-fraction microplastics from surface litter into burrow walls causes a risk of leaching through preferential flow into groundwater bodies. Furthermore, this leaching may have implications for the subsequent availability of microplastics to terrestrial organisms or for the transport

  20. Effects of pocket gopher burrowing on cesium-133 distribution on engineered test plots

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gonzales, G.J.; Saladen, M.T.; Hakonson, T.E.

    1995-01-01

    Very low levels of radionuclides exist on soil surfaces. Biological factors including vegetation and animal burrowing can influence the fate of these surface contaminants. Animal burrowing introduces variability in radionuclide migration that confounds estimation of nuclide migration pathways, risk assessment, and assessment of waste burial performance. A field study on the surface and subsurface erosional transport of surface-applied 133 Cs as affected by pocket gopher (Thomomys bottae) burrowing was conducted on simulated waste landfill caps at the Los Alamos National Laboratory in north central New Mexico. Surface loss of Cs, adhered to five soil particle size ranges, was measured several times over an 18-mo period while simulated rainfalls were in progress. Gophers reduced Cs surface loss by significant amounts, 43%. Cesium surface loss on plots with only gophers was 0.8 kg totalled for the study period. This compared with 1.4 kg for control plots, 0.5 kg for vegetated plots, and 0.2 kg for plots with both gophers and vegetation. The change in Cs surface loss over time was significant (P -1 ). Vegetation-bearing plots bad significant more total subsurface Cs (μ = 1.7 g kg -1 ) than plots without vegetation (μ = 0.8 g kg -1 ). An average of 97% of the subsurface Cs in plots with vegetation was located in the upper 15 cm of soil (SDR1 + SDR2) compared with 67% for plots without vegetation. Vegetation moderated the influence of gopher activity on the transport of Cs to soil subsurface, and stabilized subsurface Cs by concentrating it in the rhizosphere. Gopher activity may have caused Cs transport to depths below that sampled, 30 cm. The results provide distribution coefficients for models of contaminant migration where animal burrowing occurs. 35 refs., 2 figs., 3 tabs

  1. Large mammal burrows in late Miocene calcic paleosols from central Argentina: paleoenvironment, taphonomy and producers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    María Cristina Cardonatto

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Large cylindrical sediment-filled structures interpreted as mammal burrows occur within the loess-paleosol sequence of the late Miocene Cerro Azul Formation of central Argentina. A total of 115 burrow fills from three localities were measured. They are typically shallowly dipping, subcylindrical, unbranched structures with rounded ends and lacking enlargements. The horizontal diameter of the burrows range between 0.15 and 1.50 m, with most of the burrows in the interval of 0.39 to 0.98 m. Geometric morphometric analysis of transverse cross-sections support their distinct subcircular and elliptical (horizontally flattened shapes. Burrow fills are typically laminated in the lower part and massive in the upper part. The laminated intervals reflect pulses of flowing water entering the abandoned burrow during moderate rains, whereas massive intervals reflect mass flow input of dense sediment-water mixtures during heavy rains that produced sheet floods. Approximately 1% of the burrows contained fragmentary, disarticulated and weathered mammal bones that were introduced in the open burrow by currents along with other sedimentary particles. Analysis of the tetrapod burrow fossil record suggests that Miocene burrows, including those studied herein, reflect a remarkable increase in the average size of the fossorial fauna. We conclude that large late Miocene mammals dug burrows essentially as a shelter against environmental extremes and to escape predation. The simple architecture of the burrows suggests that the producers essentially foraged aboveground. Several mammal groups acquired fossorial habits in response to cold and seasonally dry climatic conditions that prevailed during the late Miocene in southern South America. The considerable range of horizontal diameters of the studied burrows can be attributed to a variety of producers, including dasypodids, the notoungulate Paedotherium minor, Glyptodontidae and Proscelidodon sp.

  2. Spilled oil and infaunal activity - Modification of burrowing behavior and redistribution of oil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clifton, H.E.; Kvenvolden, K.A.; Rapp, J.B.

    1984-01-01

    A series of experiments in Willapa Bay, Washington, indicates the degree to which the presence of spilled oil modifies the burrowing behavior of infauna and the extent to which the animals redistribute oil into intertidal sediment. Small amounts of North Slope crude oil introduced at low tide directly into burrow openings (mostly made by the crustacean Callianassa) resulted in a limited and temporary reduction in the number of burrow openings. In contrast, a layer of oil-saturated sand 1 cm thick buried about 5 cm below the sediment surface sharply reduced the number of burrow openings. After a year, the few new burrows penetrated only the margins of the experimental plot, and bioturbation below the buried oil-saturated sand layer declined dramatically. The experiments suggest that small amounts of oil temporarily stranded by tides in themselves have no long-range effect on burrowing behavior. The fauna, however, are capable of introducing measurable amounts of oil into the subsurface, where it is retained long after the rest of the stranded oil had washed away. A buried layer of oil-saturated sand greatly reduces infaunal activity; the oil presents an effective barrier that can persist for years. The oil incorporated into the sediment from burrow openings showed evidence of degradation after 7 months. In contrast the layer of buried oil remained essentially undergraded after a period of two years, even though oil in lower concentrations above the layer was degraded after a period of one year. This variation in degree of degradation of the buried oil, as well as the heterogeneity of oil distribution wherever the oil has been incorporated from the surface, emphasises the importance of careful sampling in any attempt to locate or monitor the presence of spilled oil in the substrate.In a series of experiments in Willapa Bay, Washington, small amounts of North Slope crude oil introduced at low tide directly into burrow openings resulted in a limited and temporary

  3. The influence of small mammal burrowing activity on water storage at the Hanford Site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Landeen, D.S.

    1994-09-01

    The amount and rate at which water may penetrate a protective barrier and come into contact with buried radioactive waste is a major concern. Because burrowing animals eventually will reside on the surface of any protective barrier, the effect these burrow systems may have on the loss or retention of water needs to be determined. The first section of this document summarizes the known literature relative to small mammals and the effects that burrowing activities have on water distribution, infiltration, and the overall impact of burrows on the ecosystem. Topics that are summarized include burrow air pressures, airflow, burrow humidity, microtopography, mounding, infiltration, climate, soil evaporation, and discussions of large pores relative to water distribution. The second section of this document provides the results of the study that was conducted at the Hanford Site to determine what effect small mammal burrows have on water storage. This Biointrusion task is identified in the Permanent Isolation Surface Barrier Development Plan in support of protective barriers. This particular animal intrusion task is one part of the overall animal intrusion task identified in Animal Intrusion Test Plan

  4. The role of burrowing sponges in bioerosion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rützler, Klaus

    1975-09-01

    Among the large number of limestone-eroding organisms, sponges, mainly of the family Clinonidae are of special interest because of their efficient means of substratum penetration by cellular etching and because they release characteristically shaped calcium carbonate chips which can be detected in the mud-size fraction of many sediments. Identifiable trace fossils and sediments are of great ecological and paleoecological significance.As new data on the excavating mechanism have become available, the questions of burrowing rates and sediment production have gained importance. Extrapolation from shortterm experiments (under 6 months) on substrate invasion are inconclusive because of high initial penetration rates resulting from mechanical stimulation and lack of competition. New experiments show that the rate curve flattens after 6 months and that optimum longterm erosion of CaCO 3 does not exceed 700 mg m -2 year -1 (Cliona lampa and C. aprica). Substrate limitations and competition will further reduce this rate.By monitoring the production of CaCO 3 chips by Cliona lampa, it was possible to link activity patterns to certain environmental factors. Mechanical stimuli, high light intensity, strong currents and, possibly, low temperature seem to accelerate the burrowing process. Sponge-generated chips can make up over 40% of coral mud when deposited in the current shadow of the reef framework.Using transect counts and sponge area-biomass conversion factors, the mean abundance of burrowing sponges on the Bermuda platform could be calculated. On suitable hard bottom substrates it averages 16 g dry weight per m 2 . From this value the burrowing potential of sponges can be estimated as 256 g CaCO 3 per m 2 substrate per year. Since 97-98% of the eroded limestone remains in particulate form, the contribution of fine sediments can amount to 250 g m -2 year -1 .Attention is called to the fact that erosion rates by burrowers can not directly be compared with those of borers or

  5. Synchrotron Reveals Early Triassic Odd Couple: Injured Amphibian and Aestivating Therapsid Share Burrow.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vincent Fernandez

    Full Text Available Fossorialism is a beneficial adaptation for brooding, predator avoidance and protection from extreme climate. The abundance of fossilised burrow casts from the Early Triassic of southern Africa is viewed as a behavioural response by many tetrapods to the harsh conditions following the Permo-Triassic mass-extinction event. However, scarcity of vertebrate remains associated with these burrows leaves many ecological questions unanswered. Synchrotron scanning of a lithified burrow cast from the Early Triassic of the Karoo unveiled a unique mixed-species association: an injured temnospondyl amphibian (Broomistega that sheltered in a burrow occupied by an aestivating therapsid (Thrinaxodon. The discovery of this rare rhinesuchid represents the first occurrence in the fossil record of a temnospondyl in a burrow. The amphibian skeleton shows signs of a crushing trauma with partially healed fractures on several consecutive ribs. The presence of a relatively large intruder in what is interpreted to be a Thrinaxodon burrow implies that the therapsid tolerated the amphibian's presence. Among possible explanations for such unlikely cohabitation, Thrinaxodon aestivation is most plausible, an interpretation supported by the numerous Thrinaxodon specimens fossilised in curled-up postures. Recent advances in synchrotron imaging have enabled visualization of the contents of burrow casts, thus providing a novel tool to elucidate not only anatomy but also ecology and biology of ancient tetrapods.

  6. Pisodonophis boro (ophichthidae: anguilliformes): specialization for head-first and tail-first burrowing?

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Schepper, Natalie; De Kegel, Barbara; Adriaens, Dominique

    2007-02-01

    The rice paddy eel, Pisodonophis boro (P. boro), is of special interest because of its peculiar burrowing habits. P. boro penetrates the substrate tail-first, a technique common for ophichthids, but it is able to burrow head-first as well. P. boro exhibits three feeding modes: inertial feeding, grasping, and spinning. Rotational feeding is a highly specialized feeding mode, adopted by several elongate, aquatic vertebrates and it is likely that some morphological modifications are related to this feeding mode. The detailed morphology of the head and tail of P. boro is examined with the goal to apportion the anatomical specializations among head-first burrowing, tail-first burrowing, and rotational feeding. The reduced eyes, covered with thick corneas may be beneficial for protection during head-first burrowing, but at the same time decreased visual acuity may have an impact on other sensory systems (e.g. cephalic lateral line system). The elongated and pointed shape of the skull is beneficial for substrate penetration. The cranial bones and their joints, which are fortified, are advantageous for resisting high mechanical loads during head-first burrowing. The aponeurotic connection between epaxial and jaw muscles is considered beneficial for transferring these forces from the body to the head during rotational feeding. Hypertrophied jaw muscles facilitate a powerful bite, which is required to hold prey during spinning movements and variability in the fiber angles of subdivisions of jaw muscles may be beneficial for preventing the lower jaw from being dislodged or opened. Furthermore, firm upper (premaxillo-ethmovomerine complex) and lower jaws (with robust coronoid processes) and high neurocranial rigidity are advantageous for a solid grip to hold prey during rotational feeding. The pointed shape of the tail and the consolidated caudal skeleton are beneficial for their tail-first burrowing habits. It is quite likely that the reduction of the caudal musculature is

  7. Burrowing inhibition by fine textured beach fill: Implications for recovery of beach ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Viola, Sloane M.; Hubbard, David M.; Dugan, Jenifer E.; Schooler, Nicholas K.

    2014-10-01

    Beach nourishment is often considered the most environmentally sound method of maintaining eroding shorelines. However, the ecological consequences are poorly understood. Fill activities cause intense disturbance and high mortality and have the potential to alter the diversity, abundance, and distribution of intertidal macroinvertebrates for months to years. Ecological recovery following fill activities depends on successful recolonization and recruitment of the entire sandy intertidal community. The use of incompatible sediments as fill material can strongly affect ecosystem recovery. We hypothesized that burrowing inhibition of intertidal animals by incompatible fine fill sediments contributes to ecological impacts and limits recovery in beach ecosystems. We experimentally investigated the influence of intertidal zone and burrowing mode on responses of beach invertebrates to altered sediment texture (28-38% fines), and ultimately the potential for colonization and recovery of beaches disturbed by beach filling. Using experimental trials in fill material and natural beach sand, we found that the mismatched fine fill sediments significantly inhibited burrowing of characteristic species from all intertidal zones, including sand crabs, clams, polychaetes, isopods, and talitrid amphipods. Burrowing performance of all five species we tested was consistently reduced in the fill material and burrowing was completely inhibited for several species. The threshold for burrowing inhibition by fine sediment content in middle and lower beach macroinvertebrates varied by species, with highest sensitivity for the polychaete (4% fines, below the USA regulatory limit of 10% fines), followed by sand crabs and clams (20% fines). These results suggest broader investigation of thresholds for burrowing inhibition in fine fill material is needed for beach animals. Burrowing inhibition caused by mismatched fill sediments exposes beach macroinvertebrates to stresses, which could depress

  8. Aardvark burrows: a potential resource for animals in arid and semi ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Twenty-seven vertebrate species (21 mammals, two birds, three reptiles and one amphibian) were recorded making use of the burrows and it is likely that these species accrue benefits (e.g. a buffered microclimate) from burrow use. However, our sampling was biased towards mammals and nocturnal species. Consequently ...

  9. Burrow ventilation and associated porewater irrigation by the polychaete Marenzelleria viridis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Quintana, Cintia Organo; Hansen, Torben; Delefosse, Matthieu

    2011-01-01

    presented muscular pumping in time averaged rates of 0.15 ml min−1. Oxygen needle electrodes positioned above the burrow openings revealed that muscular undulation of the worm body pumps anoxic water out of the burrow. On the other hand, microscope observations of the animal showed that ventilation...... be about 0.16 ml min−1. Since the cilia pumping into the burrow occurs in periods of 24±12 min and at 50–70% of the measured time, considerable amounts of water from deeper sediments may percolate upwards to the sediment surface. This water is rich in reduced compounds and nutrients and may have important...

  10. Identification of hydrological model parameters for flood forecasting using data depth measures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krauße, T.; Cullmann, J.

    2011-03-01

    The development of methods for estimating the parameters of hydrological models considering uncertainties has been of high interest in hydrological research over the last years. Besides the very popular Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods which estimate the uncertainty of model parameters in the settings of a Bayesian framework, the development of depth based sampling methods, also entitled robust parameter estimation (ROPE), have attracted an increasing research interest. These methods understand the estimation of model parameters as a geometric search of a set of robust performing parameter vectors by application of the concept of data depth. Recent studies showed that the parameter vectors estimated by depth based sampling perform more robust in validation. One major advantage of this kind of approach over the MCMC methods is that the formulation of a likelihood function within a Bayesian uncertainty framework gets obsolete and arbitrary purpose-oriented performance criteria defined by the user can be integrated without any further complications. In this paper we present an advanced ROPE method entitled the Advanced Robust Parameter Estimation by Monte Carlo algorithm (AROPEMC). The AROPEMC algorithm is a modified version of the original robust parameter estimation algorithm ROPEMC developed by Bárdossy and Singh (2008). AROPEMC performs by merging iterative Monte Carlo simulations, identifying well performing parameter vectors, the sampling of robust parameter vectors according to the principle of data depth and the application of a well-founded stopping criterion applied in supervised machine learning. The principals of the algorithm are illustrated by means of the Rosenbrock's and Rastrigin's function, two well known performance benchmarks for optimisation algorithms. Two case studies demonstrate the advantage of AROPEMC compared to state of the art global optimisation algorithms. A distributed process-oriented hydrological model is calibrated and

  11. Burrowing Owl - Palo Verde Valley [ds197

    Data.gov (United States)

    California Natural Resource Agency — These burrowing owl observations were collected during the spring and early summer of 1976 in the Palo Verde Valley, eastern Riverside County, California. This is an...

  12. Large-Diameter Burrows of the Triassic Ischigualasto Basin, NW Argentina: Paleoecological and Paleoenvironmental Implications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colombi, Carina E.; Fernández, Eliana; Currie, Brian S.; Alcober, Oscar A.; Martínez, Ricardo; Correa, Gustavo

    2012-01-01

    Large-diameter ichnofossils comprising three morphotypes have been identified in the Upper Triassic Ischigualasto and Los Colorados formations of northwestern Argentina. These burrows add to the global record of the early appearance of fossorial behavior during early Mesozoic time. Morphotypes 1 and 2 are characterized by a network of tunnels and shafts that can be assigned to tetrapod burrows given similarities with previously described forms. However, differences in diameter, overall morphology, and stratigraphic occurrence allow their independent classification. Morphotype 3 forms a complex network of straight branches that intersect at oblique angles. Their calcareous composition and surface morphology indicate these structures have a composite biogenic origin likely developed due to combined plant/animal interactions. The association of Morphotypes 1 and 2 with fluvial overbank lithologies deposited under an extremely seasonal arid climate confirms interpretations that the early appearance of burrowing behavior was employed by vertebrates in response to both temperature and moisture-stress associated with seasonally or perpetually dry Pangean paleoclimates. Comparisons of burrow morphology and biomechanical attributes of the abundant paleovertebrate fauna preserved in both formations permit interpretations regarding the possible burrow architects for Morphotypes 1 and 2. In the case of the Morphotype 1, the burrow constructor could be one of the small carnivorous cynodonts, Ecteninion or Probelesodon. Assigning an architect for Morphotype 2 is more problematic due to mismatches between the observed burrow morphology and the size of the known Los Colorados vertebrates. PMID:23227195

  13. Black-footed ferrets and recreational shooting influence the attributes of black-tailed prairie dog burrows

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biggins, Dean E.; Ramakrishnan, Shantini; Goldberg, Amanda R.; Eads, David A.

    2012-01-01

    Black-tailed prairie dogs (Cynomys ludovicianus) plug burrows occupied by black-footed ferrets (Mustela nigripes), and they also plug burrows to entomb dead prairie dogs. We further evaluated these phenomena by sampling connectivity and plugging of burrow openings on prairie dog colonies occupied by ferrets, colonies where recreational shooting was allowed, and colonies with neither shooting nor ferrets. We counted burrow openings on line surveys and within plots, classified surface plugging, and used an air blower to examine subsurface connectivity. Colonies with ferrets had lower densities of openings, fewer connected openings (suggesting increased subsurface plugging), and more surface plugs compared to colonies with no known ferrets. Colonies with recreational shooting had the lowest densities of burrow openings, and line-survey data suggested colonies with shooting had intermediate rates of surface plugging. The extent of surface and subsurface plugging could have consequences for the prairie dog community by changing air circulation and escape routes of burrow systems and by altering energetic relationships. Burrow plugging might reduce prairie dogs' risk of predation by ferrets while increasing risk of predation by American badgers (Taxidea taxus); however, the complexity of the trade-off is increased if plugging increases the risk of predation on ferrets by badgers. Prairie dogs expend more energy plugging and digging when ferrets or shooting are present, and ferrets increase their energy expenditures when they dig to remove those plugs. Microclimatic differences in plugged burrow systems may play a role in flea ecology and persistence of the flea-borne bacterium that causes plague (Yersinia pestis).

  14. Does petroleum development affect burrowing owl nocturnal space-use?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Scobie, Corey; Wellicome, Troy; Bayne, Erin [Department of Biological Sciences, University of Alberta (Canada)], email: cscobie@ualberta.ca, email: tiw@ualberta.ca, email: bayne@ualberta.ca

    2011-07-01

    Decline all over Canada in the population of burrowing owls, a federally listed endangered species, has raised concerns about the possible influence of petroleum infrastructure development on owl nocturnal space-use while foraging. Roads, wells, pipelines and sound-producing facilities related to petroleum development change the landscape and can influence the owls' mortality risk. For 3 years, 27 breeding adult male burrowing owls with nests close to different petroleum infrastructures were captured and fitted with a miniature GPS datalogger in order to track their nocturnal foraging. Data from these GPS devices were fed into a geographical information system and showed that pipelines and wells did not alter the foraging habits of the owls. Dirt and gravel roads, with little traffic, were preferentially selected by the owls, conceivably because of higher owl mortality risk along paved roads. Sound-producing facilities did not change owls' foraging behaviour, implying that sound may not affect their nocturnal space-use. Traffic data and sound power measurements will be used in further studies in an effort to better understand burrowing owls' nocturnal foraging habits.

  15. Burrowing with a kinetic snout in a snake (Elapidae: Aspidelaps scutatus).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deufel, Alexandra

    2017-12-01

    Of the few elongate, fossorial vertebrates that have been examined for their burrowing mechanics, all were found to use an akinetic, reinforced skull to push into the soil, powered mostly by trunk muscles. Reinforced skulls were considered essential for head-first burrowing. In contrast, I found that the skull of the fossorial shield-nosed cobra (Aspidelaps scutatus) is not reinforced and retains the kinetic potential typical of many non-fossorial snakes. Aspidelaps scutatus burrows using a greatly enlarged rostral scale that is attached to a kinetic snout that is independently mobile with respect to the rest of the skull. Two mechanisms of burrowing are used: (1) anteriorly directed head thrusts from a loosely bent body that is anchored against the walls of the tunnel by friction, and (2) side-to-side shovelling using the head and rostral scale. The premaxilla, to which the rostral scale is attached, lacks any direct muscle attachments. Rostral scale movements are powered by, first, retractions of the palato-pterygoid bar, mediated by a ligament that connects the anterior end of the palatine to the transverse process of the premaxilla and, second, by contraction of a previously undescribed muscle slip of the m. retractor pterygoidei that inserts on the skin at the edge of the rostral scale. In derived snakes, palatomaxillary movements are highly conserved and power prey capture and transport behaviors. Aspidelaps scutatus has co-opted those mechanisms for the unrelated function of burrowing without compromising the original feeding functions, showing the potential for evolution of functional innovations in highly conserved systems. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  16. Map-Based Repowering and Reorganization of a Wind Resource Area to Minimize Burrowing Owl and Other Bird Fatalities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lee Neher

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available Wind turbines in the Altamont Pass Wind Resource Area (Alameda/Contra Costa Counties, California, USA generate about 730 GWh of electricity annually, but have been killing thousands of birds each year, including >2,000 raptors and hundreds of burrowing owls. We have developed collision hazard maps and hazard ratings of wind turbines to guide relocation of existing wind turbines and careful repowering to modern turbines to reduce burrowing owl fatalities principally, and other birds secondarily. Burrowing owls selected burrow sites lower on slopes and on smaller, shallower slopes than represented by the average 10 × 10 m2 grid cell among 187,908 grid cells sampled from 2,281,169 grid cells comprising a digital elevation model (DEM of the study area. Fuzzy logic and discriminant function analysis produced likelihood surfaces encompassing most burrowing owl burrows within a fraction of the study area, and the former corresponded with burrowing owl fatalities and the latter with other raptor fatalities. Our ratings of wind turbine hazard were more predictive of burrowing owl fatalities, but would be more difficult to implement. Careful repowering to modern wind turbines would most reduce fatalities of burrowing owls and other birds while adding about 1,000 GWh annually toward California’s 33% Renewable Portfolio Standard.

  17. Map-based repowering and reorganization of a wind resource area to minimize burrowing owl and other bird fatalities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smallwood, K. S. [Research Ecologist, 3108 Finch Street, Davis, CA 95616 (United States); Neher, L. [Gis Specialist, Neher Consulting, 7241 34th Street, North Highlands, CA 95660 (United States); Bell, D. A. [East Bay Regional Park District, 2950 Peralta Oaks Court, Oakland, CA 94605-0381 (United States)

    2009-07-01

    Wind turbines in the Altamont Pass Wind Resource Area (Alameda/Contra Costa Counties, California, USA) generate about 730 GWh of electricity annually, but have been killing thousands of birds each year, including >2,000 raptors and hundreds of burrowing owls. We have developed collision hazard maps and hazard ratings of wind turbines to guide relocation of existing wind turbines and careful repowering to modern turbines to reduce burrowing owl fatalities principally, and other birds secondarily. Burrowing owls selected burrow sites lower on slopes and on smaller, shallower slopes than represented by the average 10 x 10 m{sup 2} grid cell among 187,908 grid cells sampled from 2,281,169 grid cells comprising a digital elevation model (DEM) of the study area. Fuzzy logic and discriminant function analysis produced likelihood surfaces encompassing most burrowing owl burrows within a fraction of the study area, and the former corresponded with burrowing owl fatalities and the latter with other raptor fatalities. Our ratings of wind turbine hazard were more predictive of burrowing owl fatalities, but would be more difficult to implement. Careful repowering to modern wind turbines would most reduce fatalities of burrowing owls and other birds while adding about 1,000 GWh annually toward California's 33% Renewable Portfolio Standard. (author)

  18. The vibrational signals that male fiddler crabs ( Uca lactea) use to attract females into their burrows

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takeshita, Fumio; Murai, Minoru

    2016-06-01

    In some fiddler crab species, males emit vibrations from their burrows to mate-searching females after they have attracted a female to the burrow entrance using a waving display. Although the vibrations are considered acoustic signals to induce mating, it has not been demonstrated whether the vibrations attract the females into the burrow and, consequently, influence females' mating decisions. We investigated the structures and patterns of the vibrations using a dummy female and demonstrated experimentally a female preference for male vibrations in Uca lactea in the field. The acoustic signals consisted of repetitions of pulses. The dominant frequency of the pulses decreased with male carapace width. The pulse length decreased slightly with an increasing number of vibrational repetitions, and the pulse interval increased with increasing repetitions. These factors imply that the vibrations convey information on male characteristics, such as body size and stamina. In the experiment on female mate choice, the females significantly preferred males with higher pulse repetition rates when they were positioned at the entrance of the burrow, indicating that the females use the male vibrational signals to decide whether to enter the burrow. However, females showed no preference for the vibrations once they were inside a burrow, i.e., whether they decided to copulate, suggesting that the vibrations do not independently affect a female's final decision of mate choice. The vibrations inside the burrow might influence a female's decision by interaction with other male traits such as the burrow structure.

  19. Behavioural adaptations to moisture as an environmental constraint in a nocturnal burrow-inhabiting Kalahari detritivore Parastizopus armaticeps Peringuey (Coleoptera: Tenebrionidae

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O.A.E. Rasa

    1994-08-01

    Full Text Available The nocturnal desert detritivore Parastiz.opus armaticeps shows differences in surface activity patterns and burrow fidelity depending on surface humidity. After rain approximately half of the beetle population, independent of sex, is highly vagile and disperses over long distances. During drought, beetles are more sedentary and show higher burrow fidelity. They also inhabit burrows that are longer and deeper than non-inhabited ones, such burrows being relatively scarce. Burrow fidelity and the adoption of a more sedentary habit during drought are considered strategies to avoid the risks of not locating a suitable burrow before sunrise and subsequent desiccation in shallow burrows.

  20. High Resolution Trajectory-Based Smoke Forecasts Using VIIRS Aerosol Optical Depth and NUCAPS Carbon Monoxide Retrievals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pierce, R. B.; Smith, N.; Barnet, C.; Barnet, C. D.; Kondragunta, S.; Davies, J. E.; Strabala, K.

    2016-12-01

    We use Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (S-NPP) Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) and combined Cross-track Infrared Sounder (CrIS) and Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS) NOAA-Unique CrIS-ATMS Processing System (NUCAPS) carbon monoxide (CO) retrievals to initialize trajectory-based, high spatial resolution North American smoke dispersion forecasts during the May 2016 Fort McMurray wildfire in northern Alberta and the July 2016 Soberanes Fire in Northern California. These two case studies illustrate how long range transport of wild fire smoke can adversely impact surface air quality thousands of kilometers downwind and how local topographic flow can lead to complex transport patterns near the wildfire source region. The NUCAPS CO retrievals are shown to complement the high resolution VIIRS AOD retrievals by providing retrievals in partially cloudy scenes and also providing information on the vertical distribution of the wildfire smoke. This work addresses the need for low latency, web-based, high resolution forecasts of smoke dispersion for use by NWS Incident Meteorologists (IMET) to support on-site decision support services for fire incident management teams. The primary user community for the IDEA-I smoke forecasts is the Western regions of the NWS and US EPA due to the significant impacts of wildfires in these regions. Secondary users include Alaskan NWS offices and Western State and Local air quality management agencies such as the Western Regional Air Partnership (WRAP).

  1. Detecting plague-host abundance from space: Using a spectral vegetation index to identify occupancy of great gerbil burrows

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilschut, Liesbeth I.; Heesterbeek, Johan A. P.; Begon, Mike; de Jong, Steven M.; Ageyev, Vladimir; Laudisoit, Anne; Addink, Elisabeth A.

    2018-02-01

    In Kazakhstan, plague outbreaks occur when its main host, the great gerbil, exceeds an abundance threshold. These live in family groups in burrows, which can be mapped using remote sensing. Occupancy (percentage of burrows occupied) is a good proxy for abundance and hence the possibility of an outbreak. Here we use time series of satellite images to estimate occupancy remotely. In April and September 2013, 872 burrows were identified in the field as either occupied or empty. For satellite images acquired between April and August, 'burrow objects' were identified and matched to the field burrows. The burrow objects were represented by 25 different polygon types, then classified (using a majority vote from 10 Random Forests) as occupied or empty, using Normalized Difference Vegetation Indices (NDVI) calculated for all images. Throughout the season NDVI values were higher for empty than for occupied burrows. Occupancy status of individual burrows that were continuously occupied or empty, was classified with producer's and user's accuracy values of 63 and 64% for the optimum polygon. Occupancy level was predicted very well and differed 2% from the observed occupancy. This establishes firmly the principle that occupancy can be estimated using satellite images with the potential to predict plague outbreaks over extensive areas with much greater ease and accuracy than previously.

  2. Real estate ads in Emei music frog vocalizations: female preference for calls emanating from burrows.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cui, Jianguo; Tang, Yezhong; Narins, Peter M

    2012-06-23

    During female mate choice, both the male's phenotype and resources (e.g. his nest) contribute to the chooser's fitness. Animals other than humans are not known to advertise resource characteristics to potential mates through vocal communication; although in some species of anurans and birds, females do evaluate male qualities through vocal communication. Here, we demonstrate that calls of the male Emei music frog (Babina dauchina), vocalizing from male-built nests, reflect nest structure information that can be recognized by females. Inside-nest calls consisted of notes with energy concentrated at lower frequency ranges and longer note durations when compared with outside-nest calls. Centre frequencies and note durations of the inside calls positively correlate with the area of the burrow entrance and the depth of the burrow, respectively. When given a choice between outside and inside calls played back alternately, more than 70 per cent of the females (33/47) chose inside calls. These results demonstrate that males of this species faithfully advertise whether or not they possess a nest to potential mates by vocal communication, which probably facilitates optimal mate selection by females. These results revealed a novel function of advertisement calls, which is consistent with the wide variation in both call complexity and social behaviour within amphibians.

  3. Footprints in the sand: independent reduction of subdigital lamellae in the Namib-Kalahari burrowing geckos.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lamb, Trip; Bauer, Aaron M

    2006-04-07

    Many desert organisms exhibit convergence, and certain physical factors such as windblown sands have generated remarkably similar ecomorphs across divergent lineages. The burrowing geckos Colopus, Chondrodactylus and Palmatogecko occupy dune ecosystems in the Namib and Kalahari deserts of southwest Africa. Considered closely related, they share several putative synapomorphies, including reduced subdigital pads (toe pads) and spinose digital scales. Though recognized as part of Africa's ecologically diverse Pachydactylus Group, the burrowing geckos' precise phylogenetic affinities remain elusive. Convergent pedal modification provides a tenable alternative explaining the geckos' derived terrestriality and adaptation to Namib and Kalahari sands. We generated a molecular phylogeny for the Pachydactylus Group to examine evolutionary relationships among the burrowing geckos and infer historical patterns of pedal character change. Bayesian and parsimony analyses revealed all three burrowing genera to be deeply nested within Pachydactylus, each genus belonging to a separate clade. Strong support for these distinct clades indicates ecomorphological adaptations for burrowing have evolved independently three times in the southern Pachydactylus Group. We argue that the physical properties of Namib and Kalahari sands played a principal role in selecting for pedal similarity.

  4. Mammalian mesocarnivore visitation at tortoise burrows in a wind farm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agha, Mickey; Smith, Amanda L.; Lovich, Jeffrey E.; Delaney, David F.; Ennen, Joshua R.; Briggs, Jessica R.; Fleckenstein, Leo J.; Tennant, Laura A.; Puffer, Shellie R.; Walde, Andrew D.; Arundel, Terry; Price, Steven J.; Todd, Brian D.

    2017-01-01

    There is little information on predator–prey interactions in wind energy landscapes in North America, especially among terrestrial vertebrates. Here, we evaluated how proximity to roads and wind turbines affect mesocarnivore visitation with desert tortoises (Gopherus agassizii) and their burrows in a wind energy landscape. In 2013, we placed motion-sensor cameras facing the entrances of 46 active desert tortoise burrows in a 5.2-km2 wind energy facility near Palm Springs, California, USA. Cameras recorded images of 35 species of reptiles, mammals, and birds. Counts for 4 species of mesocarnivores at desert tortoise burrows increased closer to dirt roads, and decreased closer to wind turbines. Our results suggest that anthropogenic infrastructure associated with wind energy facilities could influence the general behavior of mammalian predators and their prey. Further investigation of proximate mechanisms that underlie road and wind turbine effects (i.e., ground vibrations, sound emission, and traffic volume) and on wind energy facility spatial designs (i.e., road and wind turbine configuration) could prove useful for better understanding wildlife responses to wind energy development. © 2017 The Wildlife Society.

  5. Belted kingfishers: Under surveillance and sampled in the privacy of their own burrow

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baron, L.A.; Ashwood, T.L.

    1995-01-01

    The belted kingfisher, a common piscivore of the Oak Ridge Reservation (ORR), bioaccumulates contaminants from consumption of aquatic prey. Three kingfisher carcasses found near contaminated streams on the ORR were analyzed. Mercury, cadmium, and selenium bioaccumulated within the liver, kidney, and feathers. Additionally, PCB-1254 accumulated in muscle and lipid tissue, while Cesium-137 accumulated within the muscle and whole body. These contaminant levels have been shown to produce a variety of toxicological effects (i.e., reproductive impairment, central nervous system dysfunction) within other species of birds. In addition to use of this data for ecological risk assessment, kingfishers can also be monitored as a viable bioindicator species reflecting environmental contaminant levels over time. However, current sampling methods of burrow excavation or the use of mist nets can be detrimental to the reproductive success of the birds. The authors present a method for obtaining adequate samples of feathers and other remnants (i.e., egg shells, dried regurgitant) found in the burrow during or following the nesting season. The collection of samples following surveillance of the burrow and its contents was performed with the use of a 15 ft-long flexible, portable probe containing a video camera. Once sighted with the probe, contents of the burrow were collected by insertion of an additional tube attached to a hand held vacuum cleaner (Dirt Devil reg-sign). Feathers collected from a nest at an uncontaminated site contained selenium, lead and mercury. Cesium-137 was found in an egg shell collected from a nest at a radiologically contaminated site. Close-up photos of a kingfisher mother incubating her eggs and nestlings within two burrows will also be shown. This surveillance and sampling technique can also be used for monitoring other burrowing terrestrial species

  6. Under the weather?-The direct effects of climate warming on a threatened desert lizard are mediated by their activity phase and burrow system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, Danae; Stow, Adam; Kearney, Michael Ray

    2018-05-01

    For ectotherms such as lizards, the importance of behavioural thermoregulation in avoiding thermal extremes is well-established and is increasingly acknowledged in modern studies of climate warming and its impacts. Less appreciated and understood are the buffering roles of retreat sites and activity phase, in part because of logistical challenges of studying below-ground activity. Burrowing and nocturnal activity are key behavioural adaptations that have enabled a diverse range of reptiles to survive extreme environmental temperatures within hot desert regions. Yet, the direct impact of recent global warming on activity potential has been hypothesised to have caused extinctions in desert lizards, including the Australian arid zone skink Liopholis kintorei. We test the relevance of this hypothesis through a detailed characterisation of the above- and below-ground thermal and hydric microclimates available to, and used by, L. kintorei. We integrate operative temperatures with observed body temperatures to construct daily activity budgets, including the inference of subterranean behaviour. We then assess the likelihood that contemporary and future local extinctions in this species, and those of similar burrowing habits, could be explained by the direct effects of warming on its activity budget and exposure to thermal extremes. We found that L. kintorei spent only 4% of its time active on the surface, primarily at dusk, and that overall potential surface activity will be increased, not restricted, with climate warming. The burrow system provides an exceptional buffer to current and future maximum extremes of temperature (≈40°C reduction from potential surface temperatures), and desiccation (burrows near 100% humidity). Therefore, any climate warming impacts on this species are likely to be indirect. Our findings reflect the general buffering capacity of underground microclimates, therefore, our conclusions for L. kintorei are more generally applicable to

  7. Origin of tropical American burrowing reptiles by transatlantic rafting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vidal, Nicolas; Azvolinsky, Anna; Cruaud, Corinne; Hedges, S Blair

    2008-02-23

    Populations of terrestrial or freshwater taxa that are separated by oceans can be explained by either oceanic dispersal or fragmentation of a previously contiguous land mass. Amphisbaenians, the worm lizards (approx. 165 species), are small squamate reptiles that are uniquely adapted to a burrowing lifestyle and inhabit Africa, South America, Caribbean Islands, North America, Europe and the Middle East. All but a few species are limbless and they rarely leave their subterranean burrows. Given their peculiar habits, the distribution of amphisbaenians has been assumed to be primarily the result of two land-mass fragmentation events: the split of the supercontinent Pangaea starting 200 Myr ago, separating species on the northern land mass (Laurasia) from those on the southern land mass (Gondwana), and the split of South America from Africa 100 Myr ago. Here we show with molecular evidence that oceanic dispersal-on floating islands-played a more prominent role, and that amphisbaenians crossed the Atlantic Ocean in the Eocene (40 Myr ago) resulting in a tropical American radiation representing one-half of all known amphisbaenian species. Until now, only four or five transatlantic dispersal events were known in terrestrial vertebrates. Significantly, this is the first such dispersal event to involve a group that burrows, an unexpected lifestyle for an oceanic disperser.

  8. Burrow characteristics and habitat associations of armadillos in Brazil and the United States of America

    OpenAIRE

    Colleen M. McDonough; Michael J. DeLaney; Phu Quoc Le; Mark S. Blackmore; W. J. Loughry

    2000-01-01

    We censused and measured armadillo burrows in ten 10 m x 40 m plots in each of four habitat types at a study site in northern Florida and one in the Atlantic coastal rainforest of Brazil. The nine-banded armadillo (Dasypus novemcinctus) was the only species of armadillo found in Florida, but several additional species were present in Brazil. Burrows were more numerous but smaller in Brazil than in the U. S., probably due to the inclusion of burrows dug by the smaller congener D. septemcinctus...

  9. Observations on burrowing rates and comments on host specificity in the endangered mussel Lampsilis higginsi

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sylvester, J.R.; Holland, L.E.; Kamer, T.K.

    1984-01-01

    In preliminary laboratory studies, the endangered mussel Lampsilis higginsi was unable to burrow into rocky substrates, but did burrow into substrates comprised of silt, clay, sand, and/or pebble-gravel. Burrowing times were shortest in silt and longest in pebble-gravel. As judged by longevity of glochidial infection, walleye (Stizostedion vitreum) and largemouth bass (Micropterus salmoides) may be suitable hosts for the parasitic stage. When glochidia were placed in water without host fish, half had died after 48 hours, and all had died after 72 hours. (DBO).

  10. Burrow characteristics and habitat associations of armadillos in Brazil and the United States of America

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Colleen M. McDonough

    2000-03-01

    Full Text Available We censused and measured armadillo burrows in ten 10 m x 40 m plots in each of four habitat types at a study site in northern Florida and one in the Atlantic coastal rainforest of Brazil. The nine-banded armadillo (Dasypus novemcinctus was the only species of armadillo found in Florida, but several additional species were present in Brazil. Burrows were more numerous but smaller in Brazil than in the U. S., probably due to the inclusion of burrows dug by the smaller congener D. septemcinctus. In Brazil, burrows were larger and more numerous in swamp and forest habitats than in grassland or disturbed areas, suggesting that D. novemcinctus is found primarily in forests and swamps while D. septemcinctus is located in the other areas. This was supported by data from sightings of live animals. In Florida, burrows were more numerous in hardwood hammocks than in wetlands, fields or upland pine areas, but burrow dimensions did not vary across habitat types. In Florida, armadillos were seen more frequently than expected in hammocks and wetlands and less frequently than expected in fields and upland pine areas. There were also age (juvenile versus adult, sex, and yearly differences in habitat use in Florida. Biomass, abundance, and species diversity of terrestrial invertebrates did not vary significantly between habitat types in Florida, suggesting that habitat associations of armadillos were not influenced by prey availability.

  11. Footprints in the sand: independent reduction of subdigital lamellae in the Namib–Kalahari burrowing geckos

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lamb, Trip; Bauer, Aaron M

    2005-01-01

    Many desert organisms exhibit convergence, and certain physical factors such as windblown sands have generated remarkably similar ecomorphs across divergent lineages. The burrowing geckos Colopus, Chondrodactylus and Palmatogecko occupy dune ecosystems in the Namib and Kalahari deserts of southwest Africa. Considered closely related, they share several putative synapomorphies, including reduced subdigital pads (toe pads) and spinose digital scales. Though recognized as part of Africa's ecologically diverse Pachydactylus Group, the burrowing geckos' precise phylogenetic affinities remain elusive. Convergent pedal modification provides a tenable alternative explaining the geckos' derived terrestriality and adaptation to Namib and Kalahari sands. We generated a molecular phylogeny for the Pachydactylus Group to examine evolutionary relationships among the burrowing geckos and infer historical patterns of pedal character change. Bayesian and parsimony analyses revealed all three burrowing genera to be deeply nested within Pachydactylus, each genus belonging to a separate clade. Strong support for these distinct clades indicates ecomorphological adaptations for burrowing have evolved independently three times in the southern Pachydactylus Group. We argue that the physical properties of Namib and Kalahari sands played a principal role in selecting for pedal similarity. PMID:16618680

  12. BURROW ARCHITECTURE OF RED GHOST CRAB OCYPODE MACROCERA (H. MILNE-EDWARDS, 1852) : A CASE STUDY IN INDIAN SUNDARBANS

    OpenAIRE

    Sourabh Kumar Dubey; Deep Chandan Chakraborty; Sudipta Chakraborty; Amalesh Choudhury

    2013-01-01

    A study on burrow architecture and burrow morphology of the red ghost crab (Ocypode macrocera) was carried out at the southern proximity of the Sagar island (21°37.973' N, to E 88° 04.195'), western sector of Indian Sundarbans that faces the regular tidal influences of Bay of Bengal. Ocypode macrocera constructs burrows that are highly species specific and used by single individual. Four types of burrow patterns were observed like ‘I’, ‘J’ ‘U’ and ‘semi-U’ type with different size...

  13. Effect of mangrove restoration on crab burrow density in Luoyangjiang Estuary, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei Li

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Background Mangrove restoration seeks to restore or rebuild degraded mangrove systems. The methods of mangrove restoration include ecological projects and restoration-oriented technologies, the latter of which are designed to restore the structure, processes as well as related physical, chemical and biological characteristics of wetlands and to ensure the provision of ecosystem services. As important components of mangrove ecosystem, benthic organisms and crabs play a key role in nutrient cycling. In addition, mangrove restoration, such as vegetation restoration measures, can lead to changes in the benthic faunal communities. This study investigates whether the presence of different mangrove species, age and canopy cover of mangrove communities affect the density of crab burrows. Methods The Luoyangjiang Estuary, in the southeast of Fujian Province, was selected as our research area. A survey, covering 14 sites, was conducted to investigate the impacts of mangrove restoration on the density of crab burrows in four rehabilitated forests with different stand ages and canopy. Results It was found that differences in vegetation types had a large impact on crab density and that the density of crab burrows was lower on exposed beaches (non-mangrove than under mature Kandelia candel, Aegiceras corniculatum and Avicennia marina communities. In general, the amount of leaf litter and debris on mangrove mudflats was greater than on the beaches as food sources for crabs. Two-factor analysis of variance (ANOVA shows that changes in mangrove species and age since restoration had different effects on crab burrow density. The effect of canopy cover was highly significant on crab burrow density. Conclusions The results suggest that in the process of mangrove restoration the combined effects of mangrove stand age, canopy cover and other factors should be taken into account. This study further supports the findings of the future scientific research and practice on

  14. Breeding-season food habits of burrowing owls (Athene cunicularia) in southwestern Dominican Republic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wiley, J.W.

    1998-01-01

    Diet data from 20 Burrowing Owl (Athene cunicularia) nests were collected in southwestern Dominican Republic in 1976, 1982, and 1996. Invertebrates (53.3%) comprised the most numerous prey items (N = 396) delivered to nests by adult owls, but vertebrates (46.7%) were much better represented than in other studies of Burrowing Owl diet. Among vertebrates, birds (28.3% of all items) and reptiles (14.9%) were most important, whereas mammals (1.0%) and amphibians (2.5%) were less commonly delivered to nests. Vertebrates, however, comprised more than twice (69.2%) of the total biomass as invertebrates (30.8%), with birds (50.4%) and reptiles (12.8%) the most important of the vertebrate prey classes. A positive relationship was observed between bird species abundance and number of individuals taken as prey by Burrowing Owls.

  15. BURROW ARCHITECTURE OF RED GHOST CRAB OCYPODE MACROCERA (H. MILNE-EDWARDS, 1852 : A CASE STUDY IN INDIAN SUNDARBANS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sourabh Kumar Dubey

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available A study on burrow architecture and burrow morphology of the red ghost crab (Ocypode macrocera was carried out at the southern proximity of the Sagar island (21°37.973' N, to E 88° 04.195', western sector of Indian Sundarbans that faces the regular tidal influences of Bay of Bengal. Ocypode macrocera constructs burrows that are highly species specific and used by single individual. Four types of burrow patterns were observed like ‘I’, ‘J’ ‘U’ and ‘semi-U’ type with different sizes as revealed by POP casting. Important physic-chemical parameters like air temperature, temperature and salinity of the water were significantly varied (P < 0.05 throughout seasons in the Ocypode zone. Burrow sand column temperature were also significantly varied from ambient air temperature thus exhibiting preference for cooler subterranean residential compartment. The digging behaviour of Ocypodes enhances oxygenation in the ground soil and facilitates decomposition of organic materials, nutrient recycling, entrapping the sediments and mangrove seedlings and helps the process of bioturbation. As per the preliminary observations it was suggested that burrow shape is directly related to tidal action and metabolic activities of the crab are strongly correlated with burrow microenvironment. They are adapted to the different sediment conditions, tidal fluctuations, varying salinity gradients, air and water temperatures and other environmental fluctuations.

  16. Long-term population dynamics of a managed burrowing owl colony

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barclay, John H.; Korfanta, Nicole M.; Kauffman, Matthew J.

    2011-01-01

    We analyzed the population dynamics of a burrowing owl (Athene cunicularia) colony at Mineta San Jose International Airport in San Jose, California, USA from 1990-2007. This colony was managed by using artificial burrows to reduce the occurrence of nesting owls along runways and within major airport improvement projects during the study period. We estimated annual reproduction in natural and artificial burrows and age-specific survival rates with mark-recapture techniques, and we estimated the relative contribution of these vital rates to population dynamics using a life table response experiment. The breeding colony showed 2 distinct periods of change: high population growth from 7 nesting pairs in 1991 to 40 pairs in 2002 and population decline to 17 pairs in 2007. Reproduction was highly variable: annual nesting success (pairs that raised =1 young) averaged 79% and ranged from 36% to 100%, whereas fecundity averaged 3.36 juveniles/pair and ranged from 1.43 juveniles/pair to 4.54 juveniles/pair. We estimated annual adult survival at 0.710 during the period of colony increase from 1996 to 2001 and 0.465 during decline from 2002 to 2007, but there was no change in annual survival of juveniles between the 2 time periods. Long-term population growth rate (lambda) estimated from average vital rates was lambdaa=1.072 with lambdai=1.288 during colony increase and lambdad=0.921 (DELTA lambda=0.368) during decline. A life table response experiment showed that change in adult survival rate during increasing and declining phases explained more than twice the variation in growth rate than other vital rates. Our findings suggest that management and conservation of declining burrowing owl populations should address factors that influence adult survival.

  17. No pain, no gain: Male plasticity in burrow digging according to female rejection in a sand-dwelling wolf spider.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carballo, Matilde; Baldenegro, Fabiana; Bollatti, Fedra; Peretti, Alfredo V; Aisenberg, Anita

    2017-07-01

    Behavioral plasticity allows individuals to reversibly respond to short-term variations in their ecological and social environment in order to maximize their fitness. Allocosa senex is a burrow-digging spider that inhabits the sandy coasts of South America. This species shows a reversal in typical sex roles expected in spiders: females are wanderers that visit males at their burrows and initiate courtship. They prefer males with long burrows for mating, and males prefer virgin over mated females. We tested whether female sexual rejection induced males to enlarge their burrows and if female reproductive status affected males' responses. We exposed males who had constructed burrows to: a) virgin females or b) mated females, (n=16 for each category). If female rejection occurred, we repeated the trial 48h later with the same female. As control, we maintained a group of males without female exposure (unexposed group, n=32). Rejected males enlarged their burrows more frequently and burrows were longer compared to unexposed males. However, frequency and length of enlargement did not differ according to female reproductive status. Males of A. senex showed plasticity in digging behavior in response to the availability of females, as a way to maximize the possibilities of future mating. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. Effect of environmental conditions on variation in the sediment-water interface created by complex macrofaunal burrows on a tidal flat

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koo, Bon Joo; Kwon, Kae Kyoung; Hyun, Jung-Ho

    2007-11-01

    We quantified the increase in the sediment-water interface created by the burrowing activities of the resident macrofaunal community and its variation with respect to the physical conditions of the habitat on a tidal fat. We investigated environmental factors and dimensions of macrofaunal burrows with respect to tidal height and vegetation during spring and summer at three sites. A resin-casting method was used to quantify the dimensions of all burrows at each site. The dimensions of macrofaunal burrows varied both temporally and spatially and the increase in the sediment-water interface reached a maximum of 311%, ranging from 20 to 255% under different habitat conditions. The sediment-water interface depended on the duration of exposure resulting from tidal height, increased temperatures resulting from seasonality, and marsh plant density. Burrows were deeper and more expansive at both higher tidal levels and higher temperatures in summer. Burrow dimensions were sharply reduced with the disappearance of adult macrofauna in areas where the roots of the marsh plant Suaeda japonica were dense. The significance of this study lies in quantifying the burrow dimensions of the entire macrofaunal community, rather than just a single population, and confirming their spatial and temporal variation with respect to physical conditions of the habitat. Environmental factors responsible for variation in burrow dimensions are discussed.

  19. N2 production and fixation in deep-tier burrows of Squilla empusa in muddy sediments of Great Peconic Bay

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waugh, Stuart; Aller, Robert C.

    2017-11-01

    Global marine N budgets often show deficits due to dominance of benthic N2 production relative to pelagic N2 fixation. Recent studies have argued that benthic N2 fixation in shallow water environments has been underestimated. In particular, N2 fixation associated with animal burrows may be significant as indicated by high rates of N2 fixation reported in muddy sands populated by the ghost shrimp, Neotrypaea californiensis (Bertics et al., 2010). We investigated whether N2 fixation occurs at higher rates in the burrow-walls of the deep-burrowing ( 0.5-4 m) mantis shrimp, Squilla empusa, compared to ambient, estuarine muds and measured seasonal in-situ N2 concentrations in burrow-water relative to bottom-water. Acetylene reduction assays showed lower N2 fixation in burrow-walls than in un-populated sediments, likely due to inhibitory effects of O2 on ethylene production. Dissolved N2 was higher in burrow-water than proximate bottom-water at all seasons, demonstrating a consistent balance of net N2 production relative to fixation in deep-tier biogenic structures.

  20. Method for forecasting an earthquake from precursor signals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Farnworth, D.F.

    1996-01-01

    A method for forecasting an earthquake from precursor signals by employing characteristic first electromagnetic signals, second, seismically induced electromagnetic signals, seismically induced mechanical signals, and infrasonic acoustic signals which have been observed to precede an earthquake. From a first electromagnetic signal, a magnitude, depth beneath the surface of the earth, distance, latitude, longitude, and first and second forecasts of the time of occurrence of the impending earthquake may be derived. From a second, seismically induced electromagnetic signal and the mechanical signal, third and fourth forecasts of the time of occurrence of an impending earthquake determined from the analysis above, a magnitude, depth beneath the surface of the earth and fourth and fifth forecasts of the time of occurrence of the impending earthquake may be derived. The forecasts of time available from the above analyses range from up to five weeks to substantially within one hour in advance of the earthquake. (author)

  1. Modeling seasonal detection patterns for burrowing owl surveys

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quresh S. Latif; Kathleen D. Fleming; Cameron Barrows; John T. Rotenberry

    2012-01-01

    To guide monitoring of burrowing owls (Athene cunicularia) in the Coachella Valley, California, USA, we analyzed survey-method-specific seasonal variation in detectability. Point-based call-broadcast surveys yielded high early season detectability that then declined through time, whereas detectability on driving surveys increased through the season. Point surveys...

  2. Population models of burrowing mayfly recolonization in Western Lake Erie

    Science.gov (United States)

    Madenjian, C.P.; Schloesser, D.W.; Krieger, K.A.

    1998-01-01

    Burrowing mayflies, Hexagenia spp. (H. limbata and H. rigida), began recolonizing western Lake Erie during the 1990s. Survey data for mayfly nymph densities indicated that the population experienced exponential growth between 1991 and 1997. To predict the time to full recovery of the mayfly population, we fitted logistic models, ranging in carrying capacity from 600 to 2000 nymphs/m2, to these survey data. Based on the fitted logistic curves, we forecast that the mayfly population in western Lake Erie would achieve full recovery between years 1998 and 2000, depending on the carrying capacity of the western basin. Additionally, we estimated the mortality rate of nymphs in western Lake Erie during 1994 and then applied an age-based matrix model to the mayfly population. The results of the matrix population modeling corroborated the exponential growth model application in that both methods yielded an estimate of the population growth rate, r, in excess of 0.8 yr-1. This was the first evidence that mayfly populations are capable of recolonizing large aquatic ecosystems at rates comparable with those observed in much smaller lentic ecosystems. Our model predictions should prove valuable to managers of power plant facilities along the western basin in planning for mayfly emergences and to managers of the yellow perch (Perca flavescens) fishery in western Lake Erie.

  3. Living in a ``stethoscope'': burrow-acoustics promote auditory specializations in subterranean rodents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lange, Simone; Burda, Hynek; Wegner, Regina E.; Dammann, Philip; Begall, Sabine; Kawalika, Mathias

    2007-02-01

    Subterranean mammals rely to a great extent on audition for communication and to be alerted to danger. The only hitherto published report on burrow acoustics revealed that in tunnels of blind mole-rats ( Spalax ehrenbergi), airborne sounds of 440 Hz propagated best whereas lower and higher frequencies were effectively attenuated. Morpho-functional analyses classify the ear of subterranean mammals as a low-sensitivity and low-frequency device. Concordantly, hearing is characterized by low sensitivity and a restricted frequency range tuned to low frequencies (0.5-4 kHz). Some authors considered the restricted hearing in subterranean mammals vestigial and degenerate due to under-stimulation. In contrast to this view stand a rich (mostly low-frequency) vocal repertoire and progressive structural specializations of the middle and inner ear. Thus, other authors considered these hearing characteristics adaptive. To test the hypothesis that acoustical environment in burrows of different species of subterranean mammals is similar, we measured sound attenuation in burrows of Fukomys mole-rats (formerly known as Cryptomys, cf. Kock et al. 2006) of two differently sized species at different locations in Zambia. We show that in these burrows, low-frequency sounds (200-800 Hz) are not only least attenuated but also their amplitude may be amplified like in a stethoscope (up to two times over 1 m). We suggest that hearing sensitivity has decreased during evolution of subterranean mammals to avoid over-stimulation of the ear in their natural environment.

  4. A study of burrow morphology in representative axiidean and gebiidean mud shrimps, from the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman, Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vahid Sepahvand

    Full Text Available Mud shrimps (formerly Thalassinidea are common burrow dwelling decapod crustaceans in the littoral zone of the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman. Their burrow morphology was investigated using foam casting methods. The present study shows that the burrow morphology in Upogebia carinicauda is not consistent and the recorded variations are based on habitat type and some physical characteristics of sediments. Adult burrow morphology in sandy-muddy substrate with shells, and boulder field habitats were Y-shaped and complex burrows of horizontal channels with turning chambers and vertical connections to internal passages or crevices of boulders, respectively. In burrows of U. carinicauda, some narrow passages, connected to the upper part of adult burrows in sandy-muddy habitats, belong to juveniles. Another species, Neocallichirus jousseaumei was found under boulders in sandy-muddy habitats of the Gulf of Oman and Qeshm Island, Persian Gulf. Since this type of habitat is special in some features, no conspicuous ex-current openings (usually obvious as conical mounds of extruded sediment have been observed on the sediment surface; as these were hidden among the boulders surrounded by mixed sand and shells. The only method for observing this type of burrow was to remove the boulders by hand or lever.

  5. Seasonal temperature acclimatization in a semi-fossorial mammal and the role of burrows as thermal refuges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rachlow, Janet L.; Chappell, Mark A.; Camp, Meghan J.; Johnson, Timothy R.; Shipley, Lisa A.; Paul, David R.; Forbey, Jennifer S.

    2018-01-01

    Small mammals in habitats with strong seasonal variation in the thermal environment often exhibit physiological and behavioral adaptations for coping with thermal extremes and reducing thermoregulatory costs. Burrows are especially important for providing thermal refuge when above-ground temperatures require high regulatory costs (e.g., water or energy) or exceed the physiological tolerances of an organism. Our objective was to explore the role of burrows as thermal refuges for a small endotherm, the pygmy rabbit (Brachylagus idahoensis), during the summer and winter by quantifying energetic costs associated with resting above and below ground. We used indirect calorimetry to determine the relationship between energy expenditure and ambient temperature over a range of temperatures that pygmy rabbits experience in their natural habitat. We also measured the temperature of above- and below-ground rest sites used by pygmy rabbits in eastern Idaho, USA, during summer and winter and estimated the seasonal thermoregulatory costs of resting in the two microsites. Although pygmy rabbits demonstrated seasonal physiological acclimatization, the burrow was an important thermal refuge, especially in winter. Thermoregulatory costs were lower inside the burrow than in above-ground rest sites for more than 50% of the winter season. In contrast, thermal heterogeneity provided by above-ground rest sites during summer reduced the role of burrows as a thermal refuge during all but the hottest periods of the afternoon. Our findings contribute to an understanding of the ecology of small mammals in seasonal environments and demonstrate the importance of burrows as thermal refuge for pygmy rabbits. PMID:29576977

  6. Observations on the use of tarantula burrows by the anurans Leptodactylus bufonius (Leptodactylidae and Rhinella major (Bufonidae in the Dry Chaco ecoregion of Bolivia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christopher M. Schalk

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Some species of anurans have been observed utilizing burrows of other animals, such as rodents and tarantulas. Here we report the observations of two anuran species, Leptodactylus bufonius and Rhinella major, utilizing the burrows of tarantulas (Acanthoscurria sp.; Family Theraphosidae in the dry Chaco ecoregion of Bolivia. Both species of anurans never co-occurred with tarantulas in the burrows and used burrows that were wider in diameter and closer to breeding ponds as compared to the total available tarantula burrows in the area. These burrows may serve as refuges from predators, especially for conspicuous, calling males.

  7. Burgess shale-type biotas were not entirely burrowed away

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gaines, Robert R.; Droser, Mary L.; Orr, Patrick J.

    2012-01-01

    environments is that soft-bodied biotas were literally burrowed away from the fossil record by increasing infaunal activity in muddy substrate environments; this would have affected geochemical gradients and increased the efficiency of organic matter recycling in sediments. New and recently published data...

  8. An example of burrow system architecture of dispersing Damaraland ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The Damaraland mole-rat (Fukomys damarensis) is a social, subterranean rodent that occurs in the red Kalahari sands. This species exhibits extreme reproductive skew with a single breeding female whereas reproduction in subordinate group members is completely blocked. Rainfall, as it greatly facilitates burrowing, ...

  9. Oxygen penetration around burrows and roots in aquatic sediments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Meysman, Filip J.R.; Galaktionov, O.S.; Glud, Ronnie N.

    2010-01-01

    Diffusion is the dominant physical mechanism for the transfer of oxygen into fine-grained aquatic sediments. This diffusive uptake occurs at the sediment-water interface, but also at internal interfaces, such as along ventilated burrows or O2 releasing plant roots. Here, we present a systematic...

  10. COMPARISON OF CARBON AND NITROGEN FLUXES IN TIDEFLAT FOOD WEBS DOMINATED BY BURROWING SHRIMP OR BY CULTURED OYSTERS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Two species of indigenous, thalassinid burrowing shrimps are pests to the benthic culture of Pacific oysters (Crassostrea gigas) because deposition of sediment excavated by the shrimps buries or smothers the oysters. Carbaryl pesticide is used to reduce burrowing shrimp densitie...

  11. Nelson's big horn sheep (Ovis canadensis nelsoni) trample Agassiz's desert tortoise (Gopherus agassizii) burrow at a California wind energy facility

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agha, Mickey; Delaney, David F.; Lovich, Jeffrey E.; Briggs, Jessica; Austin, Meaghan; Price, Steven J.

    2015-01-01

    Research on interactions between Agassiz's desert tortoises (Gopherus agassizii) and ungulates has focused exclusively on the effects of livestock grazing on tortoises and their habitat (Oldemeyer, 1994). For example, during a 1980 study in San Bernardino County, California, 164 desert tortoise burrows were assessed for vulnerability to trampling by domestic sheep (Ovis aries). Herds of grazing sheep damaged 10% and destroyed 4% of the burrows (Nicholson and Humphreys 1981). In addition, a juvenile desert tortoise was trapped and an adult male was blocked from entering a burrow due to trampling by domestic sheep. Another study found that domestic cattle (Bos taurus) trampled active desert tortoise burrows and vegetation surrounding burrows (Avery and Neibergs 1997). Trampling also has negative impacts on diversity of vegetation and intershrub soil crusts in the desert southwest (Webb and Stielstra 1979). Trampling of important food plants and overgrazing has the potential to create competition between desert tortoises and domestic livestock (Berry 1978; Coombs 1979; Webb and Stielstra 1979).

  12. Burrow architecture, family composition and habitat characteristics of the largest social African mole-rat: the giant mole-rat constructs really giant burrow systems

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Šumbera, R.; Mazoch, V.; Patzenhauerová, Hana; Lövy, M.; Šklíba, J.; Bryja, Josef; Burda, H.

    2012-01-01

    Roč. 57, č. 2 (2012), s. 121-130 ISSN 0001-7051 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR IAA601410802 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z60930519 Keywords : Fukomys mechowii * subterranean rodent * burrow system * kin structure * Bathyergidae Subject RIV: EG - Zoology Impact factor: 0.949, year: 2012

  13. Influence of photoperiod on body weight and depth of burrowing in larvae of Chrysomya megacephala (Fabricius (Diptera, Calliphoridae and implications for forensic entomology A influência do fotoperíodo no peso corpóreo e na profundidade de enterramento em larvas de Chrysomya megacephala (Fabricius (Diptera, Calliphoridae e as implicações para entomologia forense

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leonardo Gomes

    2006-03-01

    Full Text Available Blowflies use discrete, ephemeral breeding sites for larval nutrition. After exhaustion of the food supply, the larvae disperse in search of sites to pupate or to seek other sources of food in a process known as post-feeding larval dispersal. In this study, some of the most important aspects of this process were investigated in larvae of the blowflies Chrysomya megacephala exposed to a variety of light: dark (LD cycles (0:0 h, 12:12 h and 24:0 h and incubated in tubes covered with vermiculite. For each pupa, the body weight and depth of burrowing were determined. Statistical tests were used to examine the relationship of depth of burrowing and body weight to photoperiod at which burrowing occurred. The study of burial behavior in post-feeding larval dispersing can be useful for estimating the postmortem interval (PMI of human corpses in forensic medicine.Moscas-varejeiras usam substratos discretos e efêmeros para nutrição larval. Após a exaustão do suprimento de comida, as larvas dispersam na procura por locais para pupação na outros recursos de alimento em um processo conhecido como dispersão larval pós- alimentar. Nesse estudo, alguns dos aspectos mais importantes desse processo foram investigados em larvas de moscas-varejeiras Chrysomya megacephala expostas a uma variação de ciclos luz: escuro (LD (0:24h, 12:12h e 24:0h e incubadas em tubos cobertos com vermiculita. Para cada pupa, o peso corpóreo e a profundidade de enterramento foram determinados. Testes estatísticos foram usados para examinar a relação entre profundidade de enterramento e o peso corpóreo e o fotoperíodo a que esse enterramento ocorreu. O estudo do comportamento de enterramento na dispersão larval pós-alimentar pode ser útil para estimar o intervalo pós-morte (IPM em cadáveres humanos em medicina forense.

  14. Current status, distribution, and conservation of the Burrowing Owl (Speotyto cunicularia) in midwestern and western North America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steven R. Sheffield

    1997-01-01

    The Burrowing Owl (Speotyto cunicularia) inhabits open prairie grassland habitat in the midwestern and western US and Canada. For several years now, numbers of this species in North America have been declining at an alarming rate. Currently, Burrowing Owls are listed as endangered in Canada and threatened in Mexico. In the United States, the...

  15. Detecting plague-host abundance from space: Using a spectral vegetation index to identify occupancy of great gerbil burrows

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wilschut, Liesbeth I.; Heesterbeek, Johan A.P.; Begon, Mike; de Jong, Steven M.; Ageyev, Vladimir; Laudisoit, Anne; Addink, Elisabeth A.

    2018-01-01

    In Kazakhstan, plague outbreaks occur when its main host, the great gerbil, exceeds an abundance threshold. These live in family groups in burrows, which can be mapped using remote sensing. Occupancy (percentage of burrows occupied) is a good proxy for abundance and hence the possibility of an

  16. Assimilation and High Resolution Forecasts of Surface and Near Surface Conditions for the 2010 Vancouver Winter Olympic and Paralympic Games

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bernier, Natacha B.; Bélair, Stéphane; Bilodeau, Bernard; Tong, Linying

    2014-01-01

    A dynamical model was experimentally implemented to provide high resolution forecasts at points of interests in the 2010 Vancouver Olympics and Paralympics Region. In a first experiment, GEM-Surf, the near surface and land surface modeling system, is driven by operational atmospheric forecasts and used to refine the surface forecasts according to local surface conditions such as elevation and vegetation type. In this simple form, temperature and snow depth forecasts are improved mainly as a result of the better representation of real elevation. In a second experiment, screen level observations and operational atmospheric forecasts are blended to drive a continuous cycle of near surface and land surface hindcasts. Hindcasts of the previous day conditions are then regarded as today's optimized initial conditions. Hence, in this experiment, given observations are available, observation driven hindcasts continuously ensure that daily forecasts are issued from improved initial conditions. GEM-Surf forecasts obtained from improved short-range hindcasts produced using these better conditions result in improved snow depth forecasts. In a third experiment, assimilation of snow depth data is applied to further optimize GEM-Surf's initial conditions, in addition to the use of blended observations and forecasts for forcing. Results show that snow depth and summer temperature forecasts are further improved by the addition of snow depth data assimilation.

  17. Incorporation of microplastics from litter into burrows of Lumbricus terrestris

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Huerta Lwanga, Esperanza; Gertsen, H.F.; Gooren, H.; Peters, P.; Salanki, T.E.; Ploeg, van der M.; Besseling, E.; Koelmans, A.A.; Geissen, V.

    2017-01-01

    Pollution caused by plastic debris is an urgent environmental problem. Here, we assessed the effects of microplastics in the soil surface litter on the formation and characterization of burrows built by the anecic earthworm Lumbricus terrestris in soil and quantified the amount of microplastics that

  18. Seasonal effects on digging activity and burrow architecture in the ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Most polygynous male mammals exhibit little or no parental care or involvement raising young. Instead, they invest indirectly in their own morphological and physiological attributes which enhance their chance of reproduction. Such secondary morphological sex traits may contribute to differences in the burrow architecture ...

  19. TRENDS IN ESTIMATED MIXING DEPTH DAILY MAXIMUMS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Buckley, R; Amy DuPont, A; Robert Kurzeja, R; Matt Parker, M

    2007-11-12

    Mixing depth is an important quantity in the determination of air pollution concentrations. Fireweather forecasts depend strongly on estimates of the mixing depth as a means of determining the altitude and dilution (ventilation rates) of smoke plumes. The Savannah River United States Forest Service (USFS) routinely conducts prescribed fires at the Savannah River Site (SRS), a heavily wooded Department of Energy (DOE) facility located in southwest South Carolina. For many years, the Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) has provided forecasts of weather conditions in support of the fire program, including an estimated mixing depth using potential temperature and turbulence change with height at a given location. This paper examines trends in the average estimated mixing depth daily maximum at the SRS over an extended period of time (4.75 years) derived from numerical atmospheric simulations using two versions of the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS). This allows for differences to be seen between the model versions, as well as trends on a multi-year time frame. In addition, comparisons of predicted mixing depth for individual days in which special balloon soundings were released are also discussed.

  20. Traces and burrowing behaviors of the Cicada nymph Cicadetta calliope: Neoichnology and paleoecological significance of extant soil-dwelling insects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, J.J.; Hasiotis, S.T.

    2008-01-01

    This study documents the traces and burrowing behaviors of nymphs of the prairie cicada Cicadetta calliope (Hemiptera: Cicadidae), as observed in neoichnological experiments. Cicada nymphs were collected from the C horizons of sandy Fluvents along the Kansas River east of Lawrence, Kansas. The nymphs appeared to be fifth instars, 13-17 mm long and 6-7 mm wide. Nymphs were placed in plastic enclosures containing layers of colored, moist, very fine-grained sand. They burrowed immediately, excavating air-filled, sediment-enclosed cells between 20 mm and 40 mm long and averaging 9 mm wide. Burrowing was completed in three stages: (1) sediment in the forward portion of the cell was excavated and rolled into a ball with the forelimbs; (2) the nymph turned 180?? using a forward roll, and moved to the back of the cell; and (3) the sediment ball was pushed up against the back wall of the cell and kneaded with the forelimbs into a thin layer. Resulting burrow traces are sinuous and distinctly meniscate and demonstrate that insect larvae construct meniscate, backfilled burrows in well-drained terrestrial settings. Cicadetta calliope nymphs and their traces are excellent analogs for meniscate trace fossils commonly found in late Paleozoic-Cenozoic alluvial deposits and paleosols. Such meniscate trace fossils are useful for interpreting the paleoenvironment and paleohydrogeology of the units in which they are found. In addition, such backfilled burrows can be used to supplement the fossil record of cicada-like hemipterans, currently known only from the latest Permian to the Early Triassic. Copyright ?? 2008, SEPM (Society for Sedimentary Geology).

  1. The Analysis of Burrows Recognition Accuracy in XINJIANG'S Pasture Area Based on Uav Visible Images with Different Spatial Resolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, D.; Zheng, J. H.; Ma, T.; Chen, J. J.; Li, X.

    2018-04-01

    The rodent disaster is one of the main biological disasters in grassland in northern Xinjiang. The eating and digging behaviors will cause the destruction of ground vegetation, which seriously affected the development of animal husbandry and grassland ecological security. UAV low altitude remote sensing, as an emerging technique with high spatial resolution, can effectively recognize the burrows. However, how to select the appropriate spatial resolution to monitor the calamity of the rodent disaster is the first problem we need to pay attention to. The purpose of this study is to explore the optimal spatial scale on identification of the burrows by evaluating the impact of different spatial resolution for the burrows identification accuracy. In this study, we shoot burrows from different flight heights to obtain visible images of different spatial resolution. Then an object-oriented method is used to identify the caves, and we also evaluate the accuracy of the classification. We found that the highest classification accuracy of holes, the average has reached more than 80 %. At the altitude of 24 m and the spatial resolution of 1cm, the accuracy of the classification is the highest We have created a unique and effective way to identify burrows by using UAVs visible images. We draw the following conclusion: the best spatial resolution of burrows recognition is 1 cm using DJI PHANTOM-3 UAV, and the improvement of spatial resolution does not necessarily lead to the improvement of classification accuracy. This study lays the foundation for future research and can be extended to similar studies elsewhere.

  2. Protozoal hepatitis in a western burrowing owl (Athene cunicularia hypugaea)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Franson, J. Christian

    2017-01-01

    A western burrowing owl (Athene cunicularia hypugaea) found dead in southern California had many light-colored lesions visible grossly on its liver, and histopathology revealed extensive necrosis throughout the hepatic parenchyma. Single-celled organisms were seen in clear spaces within the areas of necrosis. The owl was diagnosed with protozoal hepatitis.

  3. Non-Native Suckermouth Armored Catfishes in Florida: Description of Nest Borrows and Burrow Colonies with Assessment of Shoreline Conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-04-01

    clubhouses and other residences with boat docks, and a mix of other land uses. Most waterway reaches surveyed were located in rural or low-density...were excavated to obtain in- formation on burrow dimensions. In contrast to what Grier (1980) had described for Hypostomus burrows in Florida, Devick

  4. Daily and seasonal temperatures in the burrows of African rodent ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    1987-03-02

    Mar 2, 1987 ... temperature extremes, containing a nest and a bolt-hole. (Jarvis & Sale 1971; Davies & Jarvis 1986; Lovegrove &. Painting 1987). In the burrow systems of Cryptomys damarensis we have found nests as deep as 2,5 m below ground. Dissimilarities in ..... The live-trap in which it was confined was shaded ...

  5. Regional and Seasonal Diet of the Western Burrowing Owl in South-Central Nevada

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Derek B. Hall, Paul D. Greger, Jeffrey R. Rosier

    2009-04-01

    We examined diets of Western Burrowing Owls (Athene cunicularia hypugaea) based on contents of pellets and large prey remains collected year-round at burrows in each of the 3 regions in south central Nevada (Mojave Desert, Great Basin Desert, and Transition region). The most common prey items, based on percent frequency of occurrence, were crickets and grasshoppers, beetles, rodents, sun spiders, and scorpions. The most common vertebrate prey was kangaroo rats (Dipodomys spp.). True bugs (Hemiptera), scorpions, and western harvest mice (Reithrodontomys megalotis) occurred most frequently in pellets from the Great Basin Desert region. Kangaroo rats (Dipodomys spp.) and pocket mice (Perognathinae) were the most important vertebrate prey items in the Transition and Mojave Desert regions, respectively. Frequency of occurrence of any invertebrate prey was high (>80%) in samples year-round but dropped in winter samples, with scorpions and sun spiders exhibiting the steepest declines. Frequency of occurrence of any vertebrate prey peaked in spring samples, was intermediate for winter and summer samples, and was lowest in fall samples. With the possible exception of selecting for western harvest mice in the Great Basin Desert region, Western Burrowing Owls in our study appeared to be opportunistic foragers with a generalist feeding strategy.

  6. Variations in the Foraging Behaviour and Burrow Structures of the Damara Molerat Cryptomys damarensis in the Kalahari Gemsbok National Park

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B.G. Lovegrove

    1987-10-01

    Full Text Available Aspects of two habitat-specific foraging behaviours of the social subterranean rodent Cryptomys damarensis, are discussed in terms of burrow structure, resource dispersion patterns, sand moisture content, burrow temperature regimes, and predatory pressures, in the Kalahari Gemsbok National Park, South Africa.

  7. Operational aerosol and dust storm forecasting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Westphal, D L; Curtis, C A; Liu, M; Walker, A L

    2009-01-01

    The U. S. Navy now conducts operational forecasting of aerosols and dust storms on global and regional scales. The Navy Aerosol Analysis and Prediction System (NAAPS) is run four times per day and produces 6-day forecasts of sulfate, smoke, dust and sea salt aerosol concentrations and visibility for the entire globe. The Coupled Ocean Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS (registered) ) is run twice daily for Southwest Asia and produces 3-day forecasts of dust, smoke, and visibility. The graphical output from these models is available on the Internet (www.nrlmry.navy.mil/aerosol/). The aerosol optical properties are calculated for each specie for each forecast output time and used for sea surface temperature (SST) retrieval corrections, regional electro-optical (EO) propagation assessments, and the development of satellite algorithms. NAAPS daily aerosol optical depth (AOD) values are compared with the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) AOD values. Visibility forecasts are compared quantitatively with surface synoptic reports.

  8. Isotopic signatures (13C/12C; 15N/14N) of blue penguin burrow soil invertebrates : carbon sources and trophic relationships

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hawke, D.J.; Clark, J.M.

    2010-01-01

    Seabird burrows provide a soil environment for processing discards such as feathers and guano, hence constituting a primary interface between the sea and the land. This study involved collection and culturing of soil invertebrates from three blue penguin (Eudyptula minor) burrows, and examined their 13 C/ 12 C and 15 N/ 14 N isotopic composition in relation to potential burrow resources (terrestrial plant litter, burrow soil, guano, blue penguin feathers). Two taxa (cerylonid beetles and small tineid moth larvae) had a depleted 13 C/ 12 C indicative of a level of dependence on C from terrestrial soil. Tineid moth larvae (Monopis crocicapitella and (or) M. ethelella) substantially increased their 13 C/ 12 C enrichment during development, implying increasing dependence on marine C. Remaining taxa, both decomposers and predators, had 13 C/ 12 C intermediate between guano and feathers. Larval and emergent fleas had the most enriched 13 C/ 12 C , indicative of a greater dependence on feather C and the likelihood of co-processing with guano. Pseudoscorpions and histerid beetles had overlapping isotopic enrichments implying competition for prey, but were spatially separated in burrow soil. With their highly enriched 15 N/ 14 N and marine 13 C/ 12 C, larvae and protonymphs of the histiostomatid mite Myianoetus antipodus stood alone. Blue penguin burrows therefore support a diverse invertebrate fauna that incorporates terrestrial soil as well as varying proportions of the various blue penguin discards. (author). 45 refs., 1 fig., 1 tab.

  9. Influence of vegetation on the nocturnal foraging behaviors and vertebrate prey capture by endangered Burrowing Owls

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alan Marsh

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Restrictions in technology have limited past habitat selection studies for many species to the home-range level, as a finer-scale understanding was often not possible. Consequently, these studies may not identify the true mechanism driving habitat selection patterns, which may influence how such results are applied in conservation. We used GPS dataloggers with digital video recorders to identify foraging modes and locations in which endangered Burrowing Owls (Athene cunicularia captured prey. We measured the coarse and fine-scale characteristics of vegetation at locations in which owls searched for, versus where they caught, vertebrate prey. Most prey items were caught using hover-hunting. Burrowing Owls searched for, and caught, vertebrate prey in all cover types, but were more likely to kill prey in areas with sparse and less dense vegetative cover. Management strategies designed to increase Burrowing Owl foraging success in the Canadian prairies should try to ensure a mosaic of vegetation heights across cover types.

  10. Lizard burrows provide thermal refugia for larks in the Arabian desert

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Williams, JB; Tieleman, BI; Shobrak, M

    A common perception is that desert birds experience greater extremes of heat and aridity than their mammalian counterparts, in part, because birds do not use burrows as a refuge from the desert environment. We report observations of Dunn's Larks (Eremalauda dunni), Bar-tailed Desert Larks (Ammomanes

  11. Water pumping and analysis of flow in burrowing zoobenthos - a short overview

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Riisgård, Hans Ulrik; Larsen, Poul Scheel

    2005-01-01

    with the measuring of water pumping and the analysis of flow generated by burrowing deposit- and filter-feeding zoobenthos in order to determine the type of pump and mechanisms involved, flow rate, pump pressure, and pumping power. The practical use of fluid mechanical principles is examined, and it is stressed......-feeding animals. In stagnant situations the near-bottom water may be depleted of food particles, depending on the population filtration rate and the intensity of the biomixing induced by the filtering activity. But moderate currents and the biomixing can presumably generate enough turbulence to facilitate mixing...... of water layers at the sea bed with the layers above where food particle concentrations are relatively higher. Following a brief summary of types of burrowing benthic animals, common methods for measuring pumping rates are described along with examples. For estimating the required pump pressure, biofluid...

  12. Distributional changes in the western Burrowing Owl (Athene cunicularia hypugaea) in North America from 1967 to 2008

    Science.gov (United States)

    Macias-Duarte, Alberto; Conway, Courtney J.

    2015-01-01

    The quantification of shifts in bird distributions in response to climate change provides an opportunity to gain a deeper understanding of the processes that influence species persistence. We used data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) to document changes in the distributional limits of the western Burrowing Owl (Athene cunicularia hypugaea) from 1967 to 2008. We used logistic regression to model presence probability (p) as a function of longitude, latitude, and year. We modeled a linear trend in logit(p) through time with slope and intercept modeled as a double Fourier series of longitude and latitude. We found that the western Burrowing Owl has experienced an intriguing southward shift in the northern half of its breeding range, contrary to what is predicted by most species niche models and what has been observed for many other species in North America. The breeding range of the Burrowing Owl has been shrinking near its northern, western, and eastern edges. Our model detected the population declines that were observed in California and eastern Washington, in locations where maps based on route-specific estimating equations had predicted significant population increases. We suggest that the northern boundary of the breeding distribution of the western Burrowing Owl has contracted southward and the southern boundary of the species' breeding distribution has expanded southward into areas of northern Mexico that were formerly used only by wintering migrants.

  13. Infusion of low dose glyceryl trinitrate has no consistent effect on burrowing behavior, running wheel activity and light sensitivity in female rats

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Sarah Louise T; Petersen, Steffen; Sørensen, Dorte Bratbo

    2016-01-01

    . In the current paper we have studied the effect of glyceryl trinitrate infusion on three different rat behaviors. Methods: The stability of burrowing behavior, running wheel activity and light sensitivity towards repeated testing was evaluated also with respect to estrous cycle. Finally, the effect of glyceryl...... trinitrate on these behaviors in female rats was observed. Results: Burrowing behavior and running wheel activity were stable in the individual rat between experiments. The burrowing behavior was significantly affected by the stage of estrous cycle. The other assays were stable throughout the cycle. None...

  14. Burrowing and avoidance behaviour in marine organisms exposed to pesticide-contaminated sediment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møhlenberg, Flemming; Kiørboe, Thomas

    1983-01-01

    Behavioural effects of marine sediment contaminated with pesticides (6000 ppm parathion, 200 ppm methyl parathion, 200 ppm malathion) were studied in a number of marine organisms in laboratory tests and in situ. The burrowing behaviour in Macoma baltica, Cerastoderma edule, Abra alba, Nereis...

  15. Comparison of burrowing and stimuli-evoked pain behaviors as end-points in rat models of inflammatory pain and peripheral neuropathic pain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arjun eMuralidharan

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Establishment and validation of ethologically-relevant, non-evoked behavioral end-points as surrogate measures of spontaneous pain in rodent pain models has been proposed as a means to improve preclinical to clinical research translation in the pain field. Here, we compared the utility of burrowing behavior with hypersensitivity to applied mechanical stimuli for pain assessment in rat models of chronic inflammatory and peripheral neuropathic pain. Briefly, groups of male Sprague-Dawley rats were habituated to the burrowing environment and trained over a 5-day period. Rats that burrowed ≤450g of gravel on any two days of the individual training phase were excluded from the study. The remaining rats received either a unilateral intraplantar injection of Freund’s complete adjuvant (FCA or saline, or underwent unilateral chronic constriction injury (CCI of the sciatic nerve- or sham-surgery. Baseline burrowing behavior and evoked pain behaviors were assessed prior to model induction, and twice-weekly until study completion on day 14. For FCA- and CCI-rats, but not the corresponding groups of sham-rats, evoked mechanical hypersensitivity developed in a temporal manner in the ipsilateral hindpaws. Although burrowing behavior also decreased in a temporal manner for both FCA- and CCI-rats, there was considerable inter-animal variability. By contrast, mechanical hyperalgesia and mechanical allodynia in the ipsilateral hindpaws of FCA- and CCI-rats respectively, exhibited minimal inter-animal variability. Our data collectively show that burrowing behavior is altered in rodent models of chronic inflammatory pain and peripheral neuropathic pain. However, large group sizes are needed to ensure studies are adequately powered due to considerable inter-animal variability.

  16. Artificially evolved functional shell morphology of burrowing bivalves

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Germann, D. P.; Schatz, W.; Hotz, Peter Eggenberger

    2014-01-01

    dimensional (3D) objects, the first ever artificial evolution of a physical bivalve shell was performed. The result was a vertically flattened shell occupying only the top sediment layers. Insufficient control of the sediment was the major limitation of the setup and restricted the significance of the results......, there are almost no studies experimentally testing their dynamic properties. To investigate the functional morphology of the bivalve shell, we employed a synthetic methodology and built an experimental setup to simulate the burrowing process. Using an evolutionary algorithm and a printer that prints three...

  17. Artificially evolved functional shell morphology of burrowing bivalves

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Germann, D. P.; Schatz, W.; Hotz, Peter Eggenberger

    2014-01-01

    The morphological evolution of bivalves is documented by a rich fossil record. It is believed that the shell shape and surface sculpture play an important role for the burrowing performance of endobenthic species. While detailed morphometric studies of bivalve shells have been done...... dimensional (3D) objects, the first ever artificial evolution of a physical bivalve shell was performed. The result was a vertically flattened shell occupying only the top sediment layers. Insufficient control of the sediment was the major limitation of the setup and restricted the significance of the results...

  18. Genetic characterization of the burrowing shrimp (Neotrypaea californiensis) in Washington and Oregon estuaries

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Ghost shrimp, (Neotrypaea californiensis) are burrowers, which have a wide demographic distribution along the United States Pacific Coast. Our study used genetic analysis to estimate the source populations of larvae recruiting into estuaries to allow a greater understanding ...

  19. Burrowing as a novel voluntary strength training method for mice: A comparison of various voluntary strength or resistance exercise methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roemers, P; Mazzola, P N; De Deyn, P P; Bossers, W J; van Heuvelen, M J G; van der Zee, E A

    2018-04-15

    Voluntary strength training methods for rodents are necessary to investigate the effects of strength training on cognition and the brain. However, few voluntary methods are available. The current study tested functional and muscular effects of two novel voluntary strength training methods, burrowing (digging a substrate out of a tube) and unloaded tower climbing, in male C57Bl6 mice. To compare these two novel methods with existing exercise methods, resistance running and (non-resistance) running were included. Motor coordination, grip strength and muscle fatigue were measured at baseline, halfway through and near the end of a fourteen week exercise intervention. Endurance was measured by an incremental treadmill test after twelve weeks. Both burrowing and resistance running improved forelimb grip strength as compared to controls. Running and resistance running increased endurance in the treadmill test and improved motor skills as measured by the balance beam test. Post-mortem tissue analyses revealed that running and resistance running induced Soleus muscle hypertrophy and reduced epididymal fat mass. Tower climbing elicited no functional or muscular changes. As a voluntary strength exercise method, burrowing avoids the confounding effects of stress and positive reinforcers elicited in forced strength exercise methods. Compared to voluntary resistance running, burrowing likely reduces the contribution of aerobic exercise components. Burrowing qualifies as a suitable voluntary strength training method in mice. Furthermore, resistance running shares features of strength training and endurance (aerobic) exercise and should be considered a multi-modal aerobic-strength exercise method in mice. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  20. Distribution of the Chuckwalla, Western Burrowing Owl, and Six Bat Species on the Nevada Test Site

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cathy A. Willis

    1997-05-01

    Field Surveys were conducted in 1996 to determine the current distribution of several animal species of concern on the Nevada Test Site (NTS). They included the chuckwall (Sauromalus obesus), western burrowing owl (Speotyto cunicularia), and six species of bats. Nineteen chuckwallas and 118 scat locations were found during the chuckwalla field study. Eighteen western burrowing owls were found at 12 sighting locations during the 1996 field study. Of the eleven bat species of concern which might occur on the NTS, five, and possibly six, were captured during this survey. The U.S. Department of Energy, Nevada Operations Office, takes certain management actions to protect and conserve the chuckwalla, western burrowing owl, and bats on the NTS. These actions are described and include: (1) conducting surveys at sites of proposed land-disturbing activities (2) altering projects whenever possible to avoid or minimize impacts to these species (3) maintaining a geospatial database of known habitat for species of concern (4) sharing sighting and trap location data gathered on the NTS with other local land and resource managers, and (5) conducting periodic field surveys to monitor these species distribution and relative abundance on the NTS.

  1. Organic matter composition and the protist and nematode communities around anecic earthworm burrows

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Andriuzzi, Walter S.; Ngo, Phuong-Thi; Geisen, Stefan; Keith, Aidan M.; Dumack, Kenneth; Bolger, Thomas; Bonkowski, Michael; Brussaard, Lijbert; Faber, Jack H.; Chabbi, Abad; Rumpel, Cornelia; Schmidt, Olaf

    2016-01-01

    By living in permanent burrows and incorporating organic detritus from the soil surface, anecic earthworms contribute to soil heterogeneity, but their impact is still under-studied in natural field conditions. We investigated the effects of the anecic earthworm Lumbricus centralis on fresh carbon

  2. Development of earthworm burrow systems and the influence of earthworms on soil hydrology

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ligthart, T.N.

    1996-01-01


    Inoculation of earthworms can help to restore or ameliorate land qualities. Earthworms create burrows and alter the structure of the soil matrix, which influence the water infiltration, drainage, water retention and the aeration of the soil. The way and rate of the development of

  3. Multi-approach analysis of maximum riverbed scour depth above subway tunnel

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jun Chen

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available When subway tunnels are routed underneath rivers, riverbed scour may expose the structure, with potentially severe consequences. Thus, it is important to identify the maximum scour depth to ensure that the designed buried depth is adequate. There are a range of methods that may be applied to this problem, including the fluvial process analysis method, geological structure analysis method, scour formula method, scour model experiment method, and numerical simulation method. However, the application ranges and forecasting precision of these methods vary considerably. In order to quantitatively analyze the characteristics of the different methods, a subway tunnel passing underneath a river was selected, and the aforementioned five methods were used to forecast the maximum scour depth. The fluvial process analysis method was used to characterize the river regime and evolution trend, which were the baseline for examination of the scour depth of the riverbed. The results obtained from the scour model experiment and the numerical simulation methods are reliable; these two methods are suitable for application to tunnel projects passing underneath rivers. The scour formula method was less accurate than the scour model experiment method; it is suitable for application to lower risk projects such as pipelines. The results of the geological structure analysis had low precision; the method is suitable for use as a secondary method to assist other research methods. To forecast the maximum scour depth of the riverbed above the subway tunnel, a combination of methods is suggested, and the appropriate analysis method should be chosen with respect to the local conditions.

  4. Long-range forecasting of intermittent streamflow

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Ogtrop, F. F.; Vervoort, R. W.; Heller, G. Z.; Stasinopoulos, D. M.; Rigby, R. A.

    2011-11-01

    Long-range forecasting of intermittent streamflow in semi-arid Australia poses a number of major challenges. One of the challenges relates to modelling zero, skewed, non-stationary, and non-linear data. To address this, a statistical model to forecast streamflow up to 12 months ahead is applied to five semi-arid catchments in South Western Queensland. The model uses logistic regression through Generalised Additive Models for Location, Scale and Shape (GAMLSS) to determine the probability of flow occurring in any of the systems. We then use the same regression framework in combination with a right-skewed distribution, the Box-Cox t distribution, to model the intensity (depth) of the non-zero streamflows. Time, seasonality and climate indices, describing the Pacific and Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures, are tested as covariates in the GAMLSS model to make probabilistic 6 and 12-month forecasts of the occurrence and intensity of streamflow. The output reveals that in the study region the occurrence and variability of flow is driven by sea surface temperatures and therefore forecasts can be made with some skill.

  5. Long-range forecasting of intermittent streamflow

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. F. van Ogtrop

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available Long-range forecasting of intermittent streamflow in semi-arid Australia poses a number of major challenges. One of the challenges relates to modelling zero, skewed, non-stationary, and non-linear data. To address this, a statistical model to forecast streamflow up to 12 months ahead is applied to five semi-arid catchments in South Western Queensland. The model uses logistic regression through Generalised Additive Models for Location, Scale and Shape (GAMLSS to determine the probability of flow occurring in any of the systems. We then use the same regression framework in combination with a right-skewed distribution, the Box-Cox t distribution, to model the intensity (depth of the non-zero streamflows. Time, seasonality and climate indices, describing the Pacific and Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures, are tested as covariates in the GAMLSS model to make probabilistic 6 and 12-month forecasts of the occurrence and intensity of streamflow. The output reveals that in the study region the occurrence and variability of flow is driven by sea surface temperatures and therefore forecasts can be made with some skill.

  6. Patterns of surface burrow plugging in a colony of black-tailed prairie dogs occupied by black-footed ferrets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eads, David E.; Biggins, Dean E.

    2012-01-01

    Black-tailed prairie dogs (Cynomys ludovicianus) can surface-plug openings to a burrow occupied by a black-footed ferret (Mustela nigripes). At a coarse scale, surface plugs are more common in colonies of prairie dogs occupied by ferrets than in colonies without ferrets. However, little is known about spatial and temporal patterns of surface plugging in a colony occupied by ferrets. In a 452-ha colony of black-tailed prairie dogs in South Dakota, we sampled burrow openings for surface plugs and related those data to locations of ferrets observed during spotlight surveys. Of 67,574 burrow openings in the colony between June and September 2007, 3.7% were plugged. In a colony-wide grid of 80 m × 80 m cells, the occurrence of surface plugging (≥1 opening plugged) was greater in cells used by ferrets (93.3% of cells) than in cells not observably used by ferrets (70.6%). Rates of surface plugging (percentages of openings plugged) were significantly higher in cells used by ferrets (median = 3.7%) than in cells without known ferret use (median = 3.2%). Also, numbers of ferret locations in cells correlated positively with numbers of mapped surface plugs in the cells. To investigate surface plugging at finer temporal and spatial scales, we compared rates of surface plugging in 20-m-radius circle-plots centered on ferret locations and in random plots 1–4 days after observing a ferret (Jun–Oct 2007 and 2008). Rates of surface plugging were greater in ferret-plots (median = 12.0%) than in random plots (median = 0%). For prairie dogs and their associates, the implications of surface plugging could be numerous. For instance, ferrets must dig to exit or enter plugged burrows (suggesting energetic costs), and surface plugs might influence microclimates in burrows and consequently influence species that cannot excavate soil (e.g., fleas that transmit the plague bacterium Yersinia pestis).

  7. An Integrated Modeling Approach for Forecasting Long-Term Energy Demand in Pakistan

    OpenAIRE

    Syed Aziz Ur Rehman; Yanpeng Cai; Rizwan Fazal; Gordhan Das Walasai; Nayyar Hussain Mirjat

    2017-01-01

    Energy planning and policy development require an in-depth assessment of energy resources and long-term demand forecast estimates. Pakistan, unfortunately, lacks reliable data on its energy resources as well do not have dependable long-term energy demand forecasts. As a result, the policy makers could not come up with an effective energy policy in the history of the country. Energy demand forecast has attained greatest ever attention in the perspective of growing population and diminishing fo...

  8. The communicative process of weather forecasts issued in the probabilistic form

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alessio Raimondi

    2009-03-01

    Full Text Available One of the main purposes of weather forecasting is that of protecting weather-sensitive human activities. Forecasts issued in the probabilistic form have a higher informative content, as opposed to deterministic one, since they bear information that give also a measure of their own uncertainty. However, in order to make an appropriate and effective use of this kind of forecasts in an operational setting, communication becomes significatively relevant.The present paper, after having briefly examined the weather forecasts concerning Hurricane Charley (August 2004, tackles the issue of the communicative process in detail.The bottom line of this study is that for the weather forecast to achieve its best predictive potential, an in-depth analysis of communication issues is necessary.

  9. Burrowing Behavior of a Deposit Feeding Bivalve Predicts Change in Intertidal Ecosystem State

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Compton, T.J.; Bodnar, W.; Koolhaas, A.; Dekinga, A.; Holthuijsen, S.; Ten Horn, J.; McSweeney, N.; van Gils, J.A.; Piersma, T.

    2016-01-01

    Behavior has a predictive power that is often underutilized as a tool for signaling ecological change. The burrowing behavior of the deposit feeding bivalve Macoma balthica reflects a typical food-safety trade-off. The choice to live close to the sediment surface comes at a risk of predation and is

  10. Burrowing behavior of a deposit feeding bivalve predicts change in intertidal ecosystem state

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Compton, Tanya J.; Bodnar, Wanda; Koolhaas, Anita; Dekinga, Anne; Holthuijsen, Sander; ten Horn, Job; McSweeney, Niamh; van Gils, Jan; Piersma, Theunis

    2016-01-01

    Behavior has a predictive power that is often underutilized as a tool for signaling ecological change. The burrowing behavior of the deposit feeding bivalve Macoma balthica reflects a typical food-safety trade-off. The choice to live close to the sediment surface comes at a risk of predation and is

  11. Importance of agricultural landscapes to nesting burrowing owls in the Northern Great Plains, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Restani, M.; Davies, J.M.; Newton, W.E.

    2008-01-01

    Anthropogenic habitat loss and fragmentation are the principle factors causing declines of grassland birds. Declines in burrowing owl (Athene cunicularia) populations have been extensive and have been linked to habitat loss, primarily the decline of black-tailed prairie dog (Cynomys ludovicianus) colonies. Development of habitat use models is a research priority and will aid conservation of owls inhabiting human-altered landscapes. From 2001 to 2004 we located 160 burrowing owl nests on prairie dog colonies on the Little Missouri National Grassland in North Dakota. We used multiple linear regression and Akaike's Information Criterion to estimate the relationship between cover type characteristics surrounding prairie dog colonies and (1) number of owl pairs per colony and (2) reproductive success. Models were developed for two spatial scales, within 600 m and 2,000 m radii of nests for cropland, crested wheatgrass (Agropyron cristatum), grassland, and prairie dog colonies. We also included number of patches as a metric of landscape fragmentation. Annually, fewer than 30% of prairie dog colonies were occupied by owls. None of the models at the 600 m scale explained variation in number of owl pairs or reproductive success. However, models at the 2,000 m scale did explain number of owl pairs and reproductive success. Models included cropland, crested wheatgrass, and prairie dog colonies. Grasslands were not included in any of the models and had low importance values, although percentage grassland surrounding colonies was high. Management that protects prairie dog colonies bordering cropland and crested wheatgrass should be implemented to maintain nesting habitat of burrowing owls. ?? 2008 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

  12. Forecasting metal prices: Do forecasters herd?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pierdzioch, C.; Rulke, J. C.; Stadtmann, G.

    2013-01-01

    We analyze more than 20,000 forecasts of nine metal prices at four different forecast horizons. We document that forecasts are heterogeneous and report that anti-herding appears to be a source of this heterogeneity. Forecaster anti-herding reflects strategic interactions among forecasters...

  13. Incidence of plastic fragments among burrow-nesting seabird colonies on offshore islands in northern New Zealand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buxton, Rachel T; Currey, Caitlin A; Lyver, Philip O'B; Jones, Christopher J

    2013-09-15

    Marine plastic pollution is ubiquitous throughout the world's oceans, and has been found in high concentrations in oceanic gyres of both the northern and southern hemispheres. The number of studies demonstrating plastic debris at seabird colonies and plastic ingestion by adult seabirds has increased over the past few decades. Despite the recent discovery of a large aggregation of plastic debris in the South Pacific subtropical gyre, the incidence of plastics at seabird colonies in New Zealand is unknown. Between 2011 and 2012 we surveyed six offshore islands on the northeast coast of New Zealand's North Island for burrow-nesting seabird colonies and the presence of plastic fragments. We found non-research related plastic fragments (0.031 pieces/m(2)) on one island only, Ohinau, within dense flesh-footed shearwater (Puffinus carneipes) colonies. On Ohinau, we found a linear relationship between burrow density and plastic density, with 3.5 times more breeding burrows in areas with plastic fragments found. From these data we conclude that plastic ingestion is a potentially a serious issue for flesh-footed shearwaters in New Zealand. Although these results do not rule out plastic ingestion by other species, they suggest the need for further research on the relationship between New Zealand's pelagic seabirds and marine plastic pollution. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Composite Phymatoderma from Neogene deep-marine deposits in Japan: Implications for Phanerozoic benthic interactions between burrows and the trace-makers of Chondrites and Phycosiphon

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kentaro Izumi

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Among composite trace fossils, one of the most common structures throughout the Phanerozoic are structures (e.g., dwelling trace, feeding trace reworked by Chondrites and/or Phycosiphon. However, differences in the nature of the reworking behaviors of these two ichnogenera remain unknown. Thus, in this study, composite Phymatoderma specimens from the Neogene deep-marine Shiramazu Formation in Japan, particularly those reworked by Chondrites and Phycosiphon, were analyzed to reveal the specific conditions that might control the activities of these trace-makers. Phymatoderma reworked by Phycosiphon is significantly larger than non-reworked Phymatoderma, whereas Phymatoderma reworked by Chondrites shows no significant difference in burrow diameter compared with non-reworked Phymatoderma. The recognized size selectivity (i.e., preference for larger burrows by the Phycosiphon trace-maker can be explained by considering the different feeding strategies of these two ichnogenera; namely deposit-feeding Phycosiphon-makers, which must have processed a significant mass of sediment to obtain sufficient organic matter, whereas chemosymbiotic Chondrites-producers did not require a lot of sediment to obtain nutrients. In order to test these interpretations, a dataset of Phanerozoic trace fossils reworked by Chondrites/Phycosiphon were compiled. Consequently, the Phycosiphon-producers’ preference toward relatively larger burrows was recognized, quantitatively supporting the results of this study. The compilation also indicates that the burrow size might have become one of the important limiting factors for the Phycosiphon-producers that tried to rework the sediments within previous subsurface burrows, at least for 80 million years.

  15. Strong population genetic structure and larval dispersal capability of the burrowing ghost shrimp (Neotrypaea californiensis)

    Science.gov (United States)

    The burrowing ghost shrimp, Neotrypaea californiensis, is a vital member of the estuarine benthic community. Dense populations of shrimp are found in the major estuaries of Washington and Oregon. Our study determines the genetic structure of shrimp populations in order to gain ...

  16. LMDzT-INCA dust forecast model developments and associated validation efforts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schulz, M; Cozic, A; Szopa, S

    2009-01-01

    The nudged atmosphere global climate model LMDzT-INCA is used to forecast global dust fields. Evaluation is undertaken in retrospective for the forecast results of the year 2006. For this purpose AERONET/Photons sites in Northern Africa and on the Arabian Peninsula are chosen where aerosol optical depth is dominated by dust. Despite its coarse resolution, the model captures 48% of the day to day dust variability near Dakar on the initial day of the forecast. On weekly and monthly scale the model captures respectively 62% and 68% of the variability. Correlation coefficients between daily AOD values observed and modelled at Dakar decrease from 0.69 for the initial forecast day to 0.59 and 0.41 respectively for two days ahead and five days ahead. If one requests that the model should be able to issue a warning for an exceedance of aerosol optical depth of 0.5 and issue no warning in the other cases, then the model was wrong in 29% of the cases for day 0, 32% for day 2 and 35% for day 5. A reanalysis run with archived ECMWF winds is only slightly better (r=0.71) but was in error in 25% of the cases. Both the improved simulation of the monthly versus daily variability and the deterioration of the forecast with time can be explained by model failure to simulate the exact timing of a dust event.

  17. ECOBIOLOGICAL STUDY ON BURROWING MUD LOBSTER THALASSINA ANOMALA (HERBST, 1804 (DECAPODA : THALASSINIDEA IN THE INTERTIDAL MANGROVE MUDFLAT OF DELTAIC SUNDARBANS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. K. Dubey

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Populations of mud lobster Thalassina anomala were studied on tidal flats in the Sagar island of Indian Sundarbans. Ecologically they are recognized as the 'friends of mangrove' and a 'Biological Marvel' of the system. They turn up the deep soil to the surface by regular night shift burrowing exercise and help to import aerated tidal water in the burrows 2 to 2.5 meter deep. They have extra ordinary morphological adaptation and structural changes and completely resort to detritivore diet. Being thigmotactic it seldom exposes to atmospheric oxygen and forms its palace underground with a central chamber having 5 to 6 radiated tunnels opening to the surface covered with earth mounds. It displays its engineering skill of bioturbation in tunneling. During tunneling the shrimp feeds on the mud packed with detritus and derived its required micronutrients. Being mud dwelling and mud eating habits, it's respiratory and food manipulating apparatus underwent transformations which demands intensive investigation. Thalassinid burrow associates comprising mieo and microorganisms also provide good subject of study of species specific interaction, exchanging of materials between associate partners.

  18. Association of the "IUCN vulnerable "spiny rat Clyomys bishopi (Rodentia:Echimyidaewith palm trees and armadillo burrows in southeastern Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adriana A Bueno

    2004-12-01

    Full Text Available The globally vulnerable Clyomys bishopi ,a semi-fossorial and colonial rodent,is apparently limited to cerrado (savannah-like vegetationphysiognomies in São Paulo State,Brazil.The aim of the study was to verify whether the presence of C.bishopi is associated to the occurrence of palm trees (Attalea gearensis, Syagrus loefgrenii and armadillo burrows.Thirty six quadrats were placed in different physiognomies of cerrado vegetation at Itirapina Ecological Station,southeastern Brazil to survey the number of C.bishopi burrows of individuals of palm trees and burrows of armadillos.There was a strong dependence and association between the number of C.bishopi burrows and all measured variables (Contingency tables and Spearman rank correlations.It is suggested that this rodent can be found in great numbers where palm trees are abundant.The use of armadillo burrows possibly makes the movement of the rodents easier inside their own galleries.Rev.Biol. Trop. 52(4:1009-1011.Epub 2005 Jun 24.El roedor colonial Clyomys bishopi está aparentemente limitado a vegetación de semi-sabana (cerradoen el estado de São Paulo,Brasil.El objetivo de este estudio fue verificar si la presencia de C.bishopi está asociada a la individuos de las palmeras Attalea gearensis,Syagrus loefgrenii y madrigueras de armadillos.El estudio fue realizado en la Estación Ecológica de Itirapina,en el sureste de Brasil.Treinta y seis cuadrantes fueron dispuestos en diferentes fisionomías del la vegetación del cerrado para encuestar el número de madrigueras de C.bishopi, árboles individuales de palma y madrigueras de armadillos.Se calcularon tablas de contingencia y correlaciones de Sperman para evaluar, respectivamente, la dependencia y asociación entre el número de madrigueras de C.bishopi y las otras variables.Se encontró una fuerte dependencia y asociación entre el número de madrigueras de C.bishopi y todas las variables medidas.Esto sugiere que este roedor alcanza grandes

  19. THE HABITAT CHARACTERIZATION OF Cardisoma guanhumi LATREILLE, 1828 (DECAPODA, GECARCINIDAE THE APA COAST OF CORAL (PERNAMBUCO AND ALAGOAS, BRAZIL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria do Carmo Ferrão SANTOS

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available In the period from July to September 2012, a survey was made of the number of burrows of blue land crab (Cardisoma guanhumi, both in twelve profiles distributed in areas of mangrove, positioned perpendicularly to the wetlands of the Una's River (Pernambuco and Camaragibe's River (Alagoas, aiming to acquire information on the distribution of holes in different types of topographies. The depth of burrows and the salinity and temperature of the water at the bottom of the burrows was registered. In Pernambuco and Alagoas, the profiles covered steep areas (with a gradient of 4.5° and shallow areas (with a gradient of 0.02°. The maximum distance between existing burrows in the profiles, ranged from 58m and 359.5m, compared to a benchmark level (RN. The burrows depths ranged from 0.45m to 1.90m, with an depth average of 0.99m (DP = 0,29. The maximum depth of the burrows can be justified by the fact that there is less availability of water in northeastern soils.It is recommended, studied the mangroves, the establishment of an exclusion zone to preserve the habitat of Cardisoma guanhumi, a distance of at least 200m above the high tide mark. Keywords: blue land crab; mangrove; burrows.

  20. Synthesis of Pt nanoparticles and their burrowing into Si due to synergistic effects of ion beam energy losses

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pravin Kumar

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available We report the synthesis of Pt nanoparticles and their burrowing into silicon upon irradiation of a Pt–Si thin film with medium-energy neon ions at constant fluence (1.0 × 1017 ions/cm2. Several values of medium-energy neon ions were chosen in order to vary the ratio of the electronic energy loss to the nuclear energy loss (Se/Sn from 1 to 10. The irradiated films were characterized using Rutherford backscattering spectroscopy (RBS, atomic force microscopy (AFM, scanning electron microscopy (SEM, X-ray diffraction (XRD and high resolution transmission electron microscopy (HRTEM. A TEM image of a cross section of the film irradiated with Se/Sn = 1 shows ≈5 nm Pt NPs were buried up to ≈240 nm into the silicon. No silicide phase was detected in the XRD pattern of the film irradiated at the highest value of Se/Sn. The synergistic effect of the energy losses of the ion beam (molten zones are produced by Se, and sputtering and local defects are produced by Sn leading to the synthesis and burrowing of Pt NPs is evidenced. The Pt NP synthesis mechanism and their burrowing into the silicon is discussed in detail.

  1. Burrowing herbivores alter soil carbon and nitrogen dynamics in a semi-arid ecosystem, Argentina

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kenneth L. Clark; Lyn C. Branch; Jose L. Hierro; Diego Villarreal

    2016-01-01

    Activities of burrowing herbivores, including movement of soil and litter and deposition of waste material, can alter the distribution of labile carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) in soil, affecting spatial patterning of nutrient dynamics in ecosystems where they are abundant. Their role in ecosystem processes in surface soil has been studied extensively, but effects of...

  2. The communicative process of weather forecasts issued in the probabilistic form (Italian original version

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alessio Raimondi

    2009-03-01

    Full Text Available One of the main purposes of weather forecasting is that of protecting weather-sensitive human activities. Forecasts issued in the probabilistic form have a higher informative content, as opposed to deterministic one, since they bear information that give also a measure of their own uncertainty. However, in order to make an appropriate and effective use of this kind of forecasts in an operational setting, communication becomes significatively relevant.The present paper, after having briefly examined the weather forecasts concerning Hurricane Charley (August 2004, tackles the issue of the communicative process in detail.The bottom line of this study is that for the weather forecast to achieve its best predictive potential, an in-depth analysis of communication issues is necessary.

  3. Peak Wind Tool for General Forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barrett, Joe H., III

    2010-01-01

    The expected peak wind speed of the day is an important forecast element in the 45th Weather Squadron's (45 WS) daily 24-Hour and Weekly Planning Forecasts. The forecasts are used for ground and space launch operations at the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS). The 45 WS also issues wind advisories for KSC/CCAFS when they expect wind gusts to meet or exceed 25 kt, 35 kt and 50 kt thresholds at any level from the surface to 300 ft. The 45 WS forecasters have indicated peak wind speeds are challenging to forecast, particularly in the cool season months of October - April. In Phase I of this task, the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) developed a tool to help the 45 WS forecast non-convective winds at KSC/CCAFS for the 24-hour period of 0800 to 0800 local time. The tool was delivered as a Microsoft Excel graphical user interface (GUI). The GUI displayed the forecast of peak wind speed, 5-minute average wind speed at the time of the peak wind, timing of the peak wind and probability the peak speed would meet or exceed 25 kt, 35 kt and 50 kt. For the current task (Phase II ), the 45 WS requested additional observations be used for the creation of the forecast equations by expanding the period of record (POR). Additional parameters were evaluated as predictors, including wind speeds between 500 ft and 3000 ft, static stability classification, Bulk Richardson Number, mixing depth, vertical wind shear, temperature inversion strength and depth and wind direction. Using a verification data set, the AMU compared the performance of the Phase I and II prediction methods. Just as in Phase I, the tool was delivered as a Microsoft Excel GUI. The 45 WS requested the tool also be available in the Meteorological Interactive Data Display System (MIDDS). The AMU first expanded the POR by two years by adding tower observations, surface observations and CCAFS (XMR) soundings for the cool season months of March 2007 to April 2009. The POR was expanded

  4. Forecasting Water Waves and Currents: A Space-time Approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ambati, V.R.

    2008-01-01

    Forecasting water waves and currents in near shore and off shore regions of the seas and oceans is essential to maintain and protect our environment and man made structures. In wave hydrodynamics, waves can be classified as shallow and deep water waves based on its water depth. The mathematical

  5. From LZ77 to the run-length encoded burrows-wheeler transform, and back

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Policriti, Alberto; Prezza, Nicola

    2017-01-01

    The Lempel-Ziv factorization (LZ77) and the Run-Length encoded Burrows-Wheeler Transform (RLBWT) are two important tools in text compression and indexing, being their sizes z and r closely related to the amount of text self-repetitiveness. In this paper we consider the problem of converting the t......(r + z) words of working space. Note that r and z can be constant if the text is highly repetitive, and our algorithms can operate with (up to) exponentially less space than naive solutions based on full decompression.......The Lempel-Ziv factorization (LZ77) and the Run-Length encoded Burrows-Wheeler Transform (RLBWT) are two important tools in text compression and indexing, being their sizes z and r closely related to the amount of text self-repetitiveness. In this paper we consider the problem of converting the two...... representations into each other within a working space proportional to the input and the output. Let n be the text length. We show that RLBWT can be converted to LZ77 in O(n log r) time and O(r) words of working space. Conversely, we provide an algorithm to convert LZ77 to RLBWT in O(n(log r + log z)) time and O...

  6. House Price Forecasts, Forecaster Herding, and the Recent Crisis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stadtmann, Georg; Pierdzioch; Ruelke

    2013-01-01

    We used the Wall Street Journal survey data for the period 2006–2012 to analyze whether forecasts of house prices and housing starts provide evidence of (anti-)herding of forecasters. Forecasts are consistent with herding (anti-herding) of forecasters if forecasts are biased towards (away from) t......) the consensus forecast. We found that anti-herding is prevalent among forecasters of house prices. We also report that, following the recent crisis, the prevalence of forecaster anti-herding seems to have changed over time....

  7. Operational hydrological forecasting in Bavaria. Part II: Ensemble forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ehret, U.; Vogelbacher, A.; Moritz, K.; Laurent, S.; Meyer, I.; Haag, I.

    2009-04-01

    In part I of this study, the operational flood forecasting system in Bavaria and an approach to identify and quantify forecast uncertainty was introduced. The approach is split into the calculation of an empirical 'overall error' from archived forecasts and the calculation of an empirical 'model error' based on hydrometeorological forecast tests, where rainfall observations were used instead of forecasts. The 'model error' can especially in upstream catchments where forecast uncertainty is strongly dependent on the current predictability of the atrmosphere be superimposed on the spread of a hydrometeorological ensemble forecast. In Bavaria, two meteorological ensemble prediction systems are currently tested for operational use: the 16-member COSMO-LEPS forecast and a poor man's ensemble composed of DWD GME, DWD Cosmo-EU, NCEP GFS, Aladin-Austria, MeteoSwiss Cosmo-7. The determination of the overall forecast uncertainty is dependent on the catchment characteristics: 1. Upstream catchment with high influence of weather forecast a) A hydrological ensemble forecast is calculated using each of the meteorological forecast members as forcing. b) Corresponding to the characteristics of the meteorological ensemble forecast, each resulting forecast hydrograph can be regarded as equally likely. c) The 'model error' distribution, with parameters dependent on hydrological case and lead time, is added to each forecast timestep of each ensemble member d) For each forecast timestep, the overall (i.e. over all 'model error' distribution of each ensemble member) error distribution is calculated e) From this distribution, the uncertainty range on a desired level (here: the 10% and 90% percentile) is extracted and drawn as forecast envelope. f) As the mean or median of an ensemble forecast does not necessarily exhibit meteorologically sound temporal evolution, a single hydrological forecast termed 'lead forecast' is chosen and shown in addition to the uncertainty bounds. This can be

  8. NSF's Perspective on Space Weather Research for Building Forecasting Capabilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bisi, M. M.; Pulkkinen, A. A.; Bisi, M. M.; Pulkkinen, A. A.; Webb, D. F.; Oughton, E. J.; Azeem, S. I.

    2017-12-01

    Space weather research at the National Science Foundation (NSF) is focused on scientific discovery and on deepening knowledge of the Sun-Geospace system. The process of maturation of knowledge base is a requirement for the development of improved space weather forecast models and for the accurate assessment of potential mitigation strategies. Progress in space weather forecasting requires advancing in-depth understanding of the underlying physical processes, developing better instrumentation and measurement techniques, and capturing the advancements in understanding in large-scale physics based models that span the entire chain of events from the Sun to the Earth. This presentation will provide an overview of current and planned programs pertaining to space weather research at NSF and discuss the recommendations of the Geospace Section portfolio review panel within the context of space weather forecasting capabilities.

  9. House Price Forecasts, Forecaster Herding, and the Recent Crisis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christian Pierdzioch

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available We used the Wall Street Journal survey data for the period 2006–2012 to analyze whether forecasts of house prices and housing starts provide evidence of (anti-herding of forecasters. Forecasts are consistent with herding (anti-herding of forecasters if forecasts are biased towards (away from the consensus forecast. We found that anti-herding is prevalent among forecasters of house prices. We also report that, following the recent crisis, the prevalence of forecaster anti-herding seems to have changed over time.

  10. National Weather Service will stop using all caps in its forecasts |

    Science.gov (United States)

    Climate Oceans & Coasts Fisheries Satellites Research Marine & Aviation Charting Sanctuaries . NOAA's mission is to understand and predict changes in the Earth's environment, from the depths of the forecast tools and resources Climate data and reports Satellite imagery, reports, launch information

  11. Comparison of hydraulics and particle removal efficiencies in a mixed cell raceway and Burrows pond rearing system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moffitt, Christine M.

    2016-01-01

    We compared the hydrodynamics of replicate experimental mixed cell and replicate standard Burrows pond rearing systems at the Dworshak National Fish Hatchery, ID, in an effort to identify methods for improved solids removal. We measured and compared the hydraulic residence time, particle removal efficiency, and measures of velocity using several tools. Computational fluid dynamics was used first to characterize hydraulics in the proposed retrofit that included removal of the traditional Burrows pond dividing wall and establishment of four counter rotating cells with appropriate drains and inlet water jets. Hydraulic residence time was subsequently established in the four full scale test tanks using measures of conductivity of a salt tracer introduced into the systems both with and without fish present. Vertical and horizontal velocities were also measured with acoustic Doppler velocimetry in transects across each of the rearing systems. Finally, we introduced ABS sinking beads that simulated fish solids then followed the kinetics of their removal via the drains to establish relative purge rates. The mixed cell raceway provided higher mean velocities and a more uniform velocity distribution than did the Burrows pond. Vectors revealed well-defined, counter-rotating cells in the mixed cell raceway, and were likely contributing factors in achieving a relatively high particle removal efficiency-88.6% versus 8.0% during the test period. We speculate retrofits of rearing ponds to mixed cell systems will improve both the rearing environments for the fish and solids removal, improving the efficiency and bio-security of fish culture. We recommend further testing in hatchery production trials to evaluate fish physiology and growth.

  12. The added value of stochastic spatial disaggregation for short-term rainfall forecasts currently available in Canada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gagnon, Patrick; Rousseau, Alain N.; Charron, Dominique; Fortin, Vincent; Audet, René

    2017-11-01

    Several businesses and industries rely on rainfall forecasts to support their day-to-day operations. To deal with the uncertainty associated with rainfall forecast, some meteorological organisations have developed products, such as ensemble forecasts. However, due to the intensive computational requirements of ensemble forecasts, the spatial resolution remains coarse. For example, Environment and Climate Change Canada's (ECCC) Global Ensemble Prediction System (GEPS) data is freely available on a 1-degree grid (about 100 km), while those of the so-called High Resolution Deterministic Prediction System (HRDPS) are available on a 2.5-km grid (about 40 times finer). Potential users are then left with the option of using either a high-resolution rainfall forecast without uncertainty estimation and/or an ensemble with a spectrum of plausible rainfall values, but at a coarser spatial scale. The objective of this study was to evaluate the added value of coupling the Gibbs Sampling Disaggregation Model (GSDM) with ECCC products to provide accurate, precise and consistent rainfall estimates at a fine spatial resolution (10-km) within a forecast framework (6-h). For 30, 6-h, rainfall events occurring within a 40,000-km2 area (Québec, Canada), results show that, using 100-km aggregated reference rainfall depths as input, statistics of the rainfall fields generated by GSDM were close to those of the 10-km reference field. However, in forecast mode, GSDM outcomes inherit of the ECCC forecast biases, resulting in a poor performance when GEPS data were used as input, mainly due to the inherent rainfall depth distribution of the latter product. Better performance was achieved when the Regional Deterministic Prediction System (RDPS), available on a 10-km grid and aggregated at 100-km, was used as input to GSDM. Nevertheless, most of the analyzed ensemble forecasts were weakly consistent. Some areas of improvement are identified herein.

  13. The chemistry and mineralogy of haloed burrows in pelagic sediment at DOMES Site A: The equatorial North Pacific

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piper, D.Z.; Rude, P.D.; Monteith, S.

    1987-01-01

    The chemical and mineralogical composition of burrowed sediment, recovered in 66 box cores at latitude 9??25???N and longitude 151??15???W in the equatorial Pacific, demonstrates the important role of infauna in determining the geochemistry of pelagic sediment. Haloed burrows, approximately 3 cm across, were present in many of the cores. Within early Tertiary sediment that was covered by less than 5 cm of surface Quaternary sediment in several cores, the burrows in cross-section consist of three units: (1) a dark yellowish-brown central zone of Quaternary sediment surrounded, by (2) a pale yellowish-orange zone (the halo) of Tertiary sediment, which is surrounded by (3) a metal-oxide precipitate; the enclosing Tertiary sediment is dusky brown. Several elements - Mn, Ni, Cu, Co, Zn, Sb and Ce - have been leached from the light-colored halo, whereas Cr, Cs, Hf, Rb, Sc, Ta, Th, U, the rare earth elements exclusive of Ce, and the major oxides have not been leached. The metal-oxide zone, 1-5 mm thick, contains as much as 16% MnO2, as the mineral todorokite. The composition of the todorokite, exclusive of the admixed Tertiary sediment, resembles the composition of the metal deficit of the halo and also the composition of surface ferromanganese nodules that have been interpreted as having a predominantly diagenetic origin. Thus bioturbation contributes not only to the redistribution of metals within pelagic sediment, but also to the accretion of ferromanganese nodules on the sea floor. ?? 1987.

  14. Flood forecasting and uncertainty of precipitation forecasts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kobold, Mira; Suselj, Kay

    2004-01-01

    The timely and accurate flood forecasting is essential for the reliable flood warning. The effectiveness of flood warning is dependent on the forecast accuracy of certain physical parameters, such as the peak magnitude of the flood, its timing, location and duration. The conceptual rainfall - runoff models enable the estimation of these parameters and lead to useful operational forecasts. The accurate rainfall is the most important input into hydrological models. The input for the rainfall can be real time rain-gauges data, or weather radar data, or meteorological forecasted precipitation. The torrential nature of streams and fast runoff are characteristic for the most of the Slovenian rivers. Extensive damage is caused almost every year- by rainstorms affecting different regions of Slovenia' The lag time between rainfall and runoff is very short for Slovenian territory and on-line data are used only for now casting. Forecasted precipitations are necessary for hydrological forecast for some days ahead. ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) gives general forecast for several days ahead while more detailed precipitation data with limited area ALADIN/Sl model are available for two days ahead. There is a certain degree of uncertainty using such precipitation forecasts based on meteorological models. The variability of precipitation is very high in Slovenia and the uncertainty of ECMWF predicted precipitation is very large for Slovenian territory. ECMWF model can predict precipitation events correctly, but underestimates amount of precipitation in general The average underestimation is about 60% for Slovenian region. The predictions of limited area ALADIN/Si model up to; 48 hours ahead show greater applicability in hydrological forecasting. The hydrological models are sensitive to precipitation input. The deviation of runoff is much bigger than the rainfall deviation. Runoff to rainfall error fraction is about 1.6. If spatial and time distribution

  15. A maze-lover's dream: Burrow architecture, natural history and habitat characteristics of Ansell's mole-rat (Fukomys anselli)

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Šklíba, J.; Mazoch, V.; Patzenhauerová, Hana; Hrouzková, E.; Lövy, M.; Kott, O.; Šumbera, R.

    2012-01-01

    Roč. 77, č. 6 (2012), s. 420-427 ISSN 1616-5047 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR IAA601410802 Institutional support: RVO:68081766 Keywords : Bathyergidae * Burrow system * Sociality * Habitat characteristics * Subterranean mammal * Fukomys anselli Subject RIV: EG - Zoology Impact factor: 1.246, year: 2012

  16. A documentation on burrows in hard substrates of ferromanganese crusts and associated soft sediments from the Central Indian Ocean

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Banerjee, R

    , which are extensively bioturbated. Both the ferromanganese-coated and uncoated relict burrows have been collected from the same locality. Mobile epibenthic megafauna, e.g. molluscs, echinoderms, etc. seem to be main bioturbating organisms. The adjacent...

  17. Forecast Combinations

    OpenAIRE

    Timmermann, Allan G

    2005-01-01

    Forecast combinations have frequently been found in empirical studies to produce better forecasts on average than methods based on the ex-ante best individual forecasting model. Moreover, simple combinations that ignore correlations between forecast errors often dominate more refined combination schemes aimed at estimating the theoretically optimal combination weights. In this paper we analyse theoretically the factors that determine the advantages from combining forecasts (for example, the d...

  18. Forecaster Behaviour and Bias in Macroeconomic Forecasts

    OpenAIRE

    Roy Batchelor

    2007-01-01

    This paper documents the presence of systematic bias in the real GDP and inflation forecasts of private sector forecasters in the G7 economies in the years 1990–2005. The data come from the monthly Consensus Economics forecasting service, and bias is measured and tested for significance using parametric fixed effect panel regressions and nonparametric tests on accuracy ranks. We examine patterns across countries and forecasters to establish whether the bias reflects the inefficient use of i...

  19. Burrowing by Sailfin Catfish (Pterygoplichthys sp.): A Potential Cause of Erosion in Disturbed Environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-03-01

    originates at a large levee, which was built to create a water retention (to control excess water) and water bird management area. The levee and canal...each sample was dried in stainless steel trays in a 60 °C convection oven . Two methods of quantitative analysis were performed to determine the...ERDC/TN ANSRP-14-1 March 2014 Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. Burrowing by Sailfin Catfish (Pterygoplichthys sp.): A

  20. Earthquake forecasting test for Kanto district to reduce vulnerability of urban mega earthquake disasters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yokoi, S.; Tsuruoka, H.; Nanjo, K.; Hirata, N.

    2012-12-01

    Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) is a global project on earthquake predictability research. The final goal of this project is to search for the intrinsic predictability of the earthquake rupture process through forecast testing experiments. The Earthquake Research Institute, the University of Tokyo joined CSEP and started the Japanese testing center called as CSEP-Japan. This testing center provides an open access to researchers contributing earthquake forecast models applied to Japan. Now more than 100 earthquake forecast models were submitted on the prospective experiment. The models are separated into 4 testing classes (1 day, 3 months, 1 year and 3 years) and 3 testing regions covering an area of Japan including sea area, Japanese mainland and Kanto district. We evaluate the performance of the models in the official suite of tests defined by CSEP. The total number of experiments was implemented for approximately 300 rounds. These results provide new knowledge concerning statistical forecasting models. We started a study for constructing a 3-dimensional earthquake forecasting model for Kanto district in Japan based on CSEP experiments under the Special Project for Reducing Vulnerability for Urban Mega Earthquake Disasters. Because seismicity of the area ranges from shallower part to a depth of 80 km due to subducting Philippine Sea plate and Pacific plate, we need to study effect of depth distribution. We will develop models for forecasting based on the results of 2-D modeling. We defined the 3D - forecasting area in the Kanto region with test classes of 1 day, 3 months, 1 year and 3 years, and magnitudes from 4.0 to 9.0 as in CSEP-Japan. In the first step of the study, we will install RI10K model (Nanjo, 2011) and the HISTETAS models (Ogata, 2011) to know if those models have good performance as in the 3 months 2-D CSEP-Japan experiments in the Kanto region before the 2011 Tohoku event (Yokoi et al., in preparation). We use CSEP

  1. Forecast combinations

    OpenAIRE

    Aiolfi, Marco; Capistrán, Carlos; Timmermann, Allan

    2010-01-01

    We consider combinations of subjective survey forecasts and model-based forecasts from linear and non-linear univariate specifications as well as multivariate factor-augmented models. Empirical results suggest that a simple equal-weighted average of survey forecasts outperform the best model-based forecasts for a majority of macroeconomic variables and forecast horizons. Additional improvements can in some cases be gained by using a simple equal-weighted average of survey and model-based fore...

  2. Delphi in Criminal Justice Policy: A Case Study on Judgmental Forecasting

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Loyens, Kim; Maesschalck, Jeroen; Bouckaert, Geert

    2011-01-01

    This article provides an in-depth case study analysis of a pilot project organized by the section “Strategic Analysis” of the Belgian Federal Police. Using the Delphi method, which is a judgmental forecasting technique, a panel of experts was questioned about future developments of crime, based on

  3. Flood forecasting within urban drainage systems using NARX neural network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abou Rjeily, Yves; Abbas, Oras; Sadek, Marwan; Shahrour, Isam; Hage Chehade, Fadi

    2017-11-01

    Urbanization activity and climate change increase the runoff volumes, and consequently the surcharge of the urban drainage systems (UDS). In addition, age and structural failures of these utilities limit their capacities, and thus generate hydraulic operation shortages, leading to flooding events. The large increase in floods within urban areas requires rapid actions from the UDS operators. The proactivity in taking the appropriate actions is a key element in applying efficient management and flood mitigation. Therefore, this work focuses on developing a flooding forecast system (FFS), able to alert in advance the UDS managers for possible flooding. For a forecasted storm event, a quick estimation of the water depth variation within critical manholes allows a reliable evaluation of the flood risk. The Nonlinear Auto Regressive with eXogenous inputs (NARX) neural network was chosen to develop the FFS as due to its calculation nature it is capable of relating water depth variation in manholes to rainfall intensities. The campus of the University of Lille is used as an experimental site to test and evaluate the FFS proposed in this paper.

  4. Artificial neural networks to forecast biomass of Pacific sardine and its environment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cisneros Mata, M.A.; Brey, T.; Jarre, Astrid

    1996-01-01

    We tested the forecasting performance of artificial neural networks (ANNs) using several time series of environmental and biotic data pertaining to the California Current (CC) neritic ecosystem. ANNs performed well predicting CC monthly 10-m depth temperature up to nine years in advance, using te...

  5. Operational hydrological forecasting in Bavaria. Part I: Forecast uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ehret, U.; Vogelbacher, A.; Moritz, K.; Laurent, S.; Meyer, I.; Haag, I.

    2009-04-01

    In Bavaria, operational flood forecasting has been established since the disastrous flood of 1999. Nowadays, forecasts based on rainfall information from about 700 raingauges and 600 rivergauges are calculated and issued for nearly 100 rivergauges. With the added experience of the 2002 and 2005 floods, awareness grew that the standard deterministic forecast, neglecting the uncertainty associated with each forecast is misleading, creating a false feeling of unambiguousness. As a consequence, a system to identify, quantify and communicate the sources and magnitude of forecast uncertainty has been developed, which will be presented in part I of this study. In this system, the use of ensemble meteorological forecasts plays a key role which will be presented in part II. Developing the system, several constraints stemming from the range of hydrological regimes and operational requirements had to be met: Firstly, operational time constraints obviate the variation of all components of the modeling chain as would be done in a full Monte Carlo simulation. Therefore, an approach was chosen where only the most relevant sources of uncertainty were dynamically considered while the others were jointly accounted for by static error distributions from offline analysis. Secondly, the dominant sources of uncertainty vary over the wide range of forecasted catchments: In alpine headwater catchments, typically of a few hundred square kilometers in size, rainfall forecast uncertainty is the key factor for forecast uncertainty, with a magnitude dynamically changing with the prevailing predictability of the atmosphere. In lowland catchments encompassing several thousands of square kilometers, forecast uncertainty in the desired range (usually up to two days) is mainly dependent on upstream gauge observation quality, routing and unpredictable human impact such as reservoir operation. The determination of forecast uncertainty comprised the following steps: a) From comparison of gauge

  6. The Application of TAPM for Site Specific Wind Energy Forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Merlinde Kay

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available The energy industry uses weather forecasts for determining future electricity demand variations due to the impact of weather, e.g., temperature and precipitation. However, as a greater component of electricity generation comes from intermittent renewable sources such as wind and solar, weather forecasting techniques need to now also focus on predicting renewable energy supply, which means adapting our prediction models to these site specific resources. This work assesses the performance of The Air Pollution Model (TAPM, and demonstrates that significant improvements can be made to only wind speed forecasts from a mesoscale Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP model. For this study, a wind farm site situated in North-west Tasmania, Australia was investigated. I present an analysis of the accuracy of hourly NWP and bias corrected wind speed forecasts over 12 months spanning 2005. This extensive time frame allows an in-depth analysis of various wind speed regimes of importance for wind-farm operation, as well as extreme weather risk scenarios. A further correction is made to the basic bias correction to improve the forecast accuracy further, that makes use of real-time wind-turbine data and a smoothing function to correct for timing-related issues. With full correction applied, a reduction in the error in the magnitude of the wind speed by as much as 50% for “hour ahead” forecasts specific to the wind-farm site has been obtained.

  7. Short-term wind power combined forecasting based on error forecast correction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liang, Zhengtang; Liang, Jun; Wang, Chengfu; Dong, Xiaoming; Miao, Xiaofeng

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • The correlation relationships of short-term wind power forecast errors are studied. • The correlation analysis method of the multi-step forecast errors is proposed. • A strategy selecting the input variables for the error forecast models is proposed. • Several novel combined models based on error forecast correction are proposed. • The combined models have improved the short-term wind power forecasting accuracy. - Abstract: With the increasing contribution of wind power to electric power grids, accurate forecasting of short-term wind power has become particularly valuable for wind farm operators, utility operators and customers. The aim of this study is to investigate the interdependence structure of errors in short-term wind power forecasting that is crucial for building error forecast models with regression learning algorithms to correct predictions and improve final forecasting accuracy. In this paper, several novel short-term wind power combined forecasting models based on error forecast correction are proposed in the one-step ahead, continuous and discontinuous multi-step ahead forecasting modes. First, the correlation relationships of forecast errors of the autoregressive model, the persistence method and the support vector machine model in various forecasting modes have been investigated to determine whether the error forecast models can be established by regression learning algorithms. Second, according to the results of the correlation analysis, the range of input variables is defined and an efficient strategy for selecting the input variables for the error forecast models is proposed. Finally, several combined forecasting models are proposed, in which the error forecast models are based on support vector machine/extreme learning machine, and correct the short-term wind power forecast values. The data collected from a wind farm in Hebei Province, China, are selected as a case study to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed

  8. Fuel cycle forecasting - there are forecasts and there are forecasts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Puechl, K.H.

    1975-01-01

    The FORECAST-NUCLEAR computer program described recognizes that forecasts are made to answer a variety of questions and, therefore, that no single forecast is universally appropriate. Also, it recognizes that no two individuals will completely agree as to the input data that are appropriate for obtaining an answer to even a single simple question. Accordingly, the program was written from a utilitarian standpoint: it allows working with multiple projections; data inputting is simple to allow game-playing; computation time is short to minimize the cost of 'what if' assessements; and detail is internally carried to allow meaningful analysis. (author)

  9. Fuel cycle forecasting - there are forecasts and there are forecasts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Puechl, K H

    1975-12-01

    The FORECAST-NUCLEAR computer program described recognizes that forecasts are made to answer a variety of questions and, therefore, that no single forecast is universally appropriate. Also, it recognizes that no two individuals will completely agree as to the input data that are appropriate for obtaining an answer to even a single simple question. Accordingly, the program was written from a utilitarian standpoint: it allows working with multiple projections; data inputting is simple to allow game-playing; computation time is short to minimize the cost of 'what if' assessements; and detail is internally carried to allow meaningful analysis.

  10. Forecasting magma-chamber rupture at Santorini volcano, Greece.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Browning, John; Drymoni, Kyriaki; Gudmundsson, Agust

    2015-10-28

    How much magma needs to be added to a shallow magma chamber to cause rupture, dyke injection, and a potential eruption? Models that yield reliable answers to this question are needed in order to facilitate eruption forecasting. Development of a long-lived shallow magma chamber requires periodic influx of magmas from a parental body at depth. This redistribution process does not necessarily cause an eruption but produces a net volume change that can be measured geodetically by inversion techniques. Using continuum-mechanics and fracture-mechanics principles, we calculate the amount of magma contained at shallow depth beneath Santorini volcano, Greece. We demonstrate through structural analysis of dykes exposed within the Santorini caldera, previously published data on the volume of recent eruptions, and geodetic measurements of the 2011-2012 unrest period, that the measured 0.02% increase in volume of Santorini's shallow magma chamber was associated with magmatic excess pressure increase of around 1.1 MPa. This excess pressure was high enough to bring the chamber roof close to rupture and dyke injection. For volcanoes with known typical extrusion and intrusion (dyke) volumes, the new methodology presented here makes it possible to forecast the conditions for magma-chamber failure and dyke injection at any geodetically well-monitored volcano.

  11. Flood Forecasting Based on TIGGE Precipitation Ensemble Forecast

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jinyin Ye

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available TIGGE (THORPEX International Grand Global Ensemble was a major part of the THORPEX (Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment. It integrates ensemble precipitation products from all the major forecast centers in the world and provides systematic evaluation on the multimodel ensemble prediction system. Development of meteorologic-hydrologic coupled flood forecasting model and early warning model based on the TIGGE precipitation ensemble forecast can provide flood probability forecast, extend the lead time of the flood forecast, and gain more time for decision-makers to make the right decision. In this study, precipitation ensemble forecast products from ECMWF, NCEP, and CMA are used to drive distributed hydrologic model TOPX. We focus on Yi River catchment and aim to build a flood forecast and early warning system. The results show that the meteorologic-hydrologic coupled model can satisfactorily predict the flow-process of four flood events. The predicted occurrence time of peak discharges is close to the observations. However, the magnitude of the peak discharges is significantly different due to various performances of the ensemble prediction systems. The coupled forecasting model can accurately predict occurrence of the peak time and the corresponding risk probability of peak discharge based on the probability distribution of peak time and flood warning, which can provide users a strong theoretical foundation and valuable information as a promising new approach.

  12. Delphi in Criminal Justice Policy: A Case Study on Judgmental Forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loyens, Kim; Maesschalck, Jeroen; Bouckaert, Geert

    2011-01-01

    This article provides an in-depth case study analysis of a pilot project organized by the section "Strategic Analysis" of the Belgian Federal Police. Using the Delphi method, which is a judgmental forecasting technique, a panel of experts was questioned about future developments of crime, based on their expertise in criminal or social…

  13. Forecasting Housing Approvals in Australia: Do Forecasters Herd?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stadtmann, Georg; Pierdzioch; Rülke

    2012-01-01

    Price trends in housing markets may reflect herding of market participants. A natural question is whether such herding, to the extent that it occurred, reflects herding in forecasts of professional forecasters. Using more than 6,000 forecasts of housing approvals for Australia, we did not find...

  14. Forecasting freight flows

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lyk-Jensen, Stéphanie

    2011-01-01

    Trade patterns and transport markets are changing as a result of the growth and globalization of international trade, and forecasting future freight flow has to rely on trade forecasts. Forecasting freight flows is critical for matching infrastructure supply to demand and for assessing investment...... constitute a valuable input to freight models for forecasting future capacity problems.......Trade patterns and transport markets are changing as a result of the growth and globalization of international trade, and forecasting future freight flow has to rely on trade forecasts. Forecasting freight flows is critical for matching infrastructure supply to demand and for assessing investment...

  15. Robust forecast comparison

    OpenAIRE

    Jin, Sainan; Corradi, Valentina; Swanson, Norman

    2015-01-01

    Forecast accuracy is typically measured in terms of a given loss function. However, as a consequence of the use of misspecified models in multiple model comparisons, relative forecast rankings are loss function dependent. This paper addresses this issue by using a novel criterion for forecast evaluation which is based on the entire distribution of forecast errors. We introduce the concepts of general-loss (GL) forecast superiority and convex-loss (CL) forecast superiority, and we establish a ...

  16. PARTICLE REMOVAL RATES BY THE MUD SHRIMP UPOGEBIA PUGETTENSIS, ITS BURROW, AND A COMMENSAL CLAM: EFFECTS ON ESTUARINE PHYTOPLANKTON ABUNDANCE

    Science.gov (United States)

    The burrowing shrimp Upogebia pugettensis is an abundant intertidal inhabitant of Pacific Northwest bays and estuaries where it lives commensally with the bivalve Cryptomya californica. Suspension-feeding activities by the shrimp and by its commensal clam, as well as particle se...

  17. Forecasting Skill

    Science.gov (United States)

    1981-01-01

    for the third and fourth day precipitation forecasts. A marked improvement was shown for the consensus 24 hour precipitation forecast, and small... Zuckerberg (1980) found a small long term skill increase in forecasts of heavy snow events for nine eastern cities. Other National Weather Service...and maximum temperature) are each awarded marks 2, 1, or 0 according to whether the forecast is correct, 8 - *- -**■*- ———"—- - -■ t0m 1 MM—IB I

  18. Evaluating information in multiple horizon forecasts. The DOE's energy price forecasts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sanders, Dwight R.; Manfredo, Mark R.; Boris, Keith

    2009-01-01

    The United States Department of Energy's (DOE) quarterly price forecasts for energy commodities are examined to determine the incremental information provided at the one-through four-quarter forecast horizons. A direct test for determining information content at alternative forecast horizons, developed by Vuchelen and Gutierrez [Vuchelen, J. and Gutierrez, M.-I. 'A Direct Test of the Information Content of the OECD Growth Forecasts.' International Journal of Forecasting. 21(2005):103-117.], is used. The results suggest that the DOE's price forecasts for crude oil, gasoline, and diesel fuel do indeed provide incremental information out to three-quarters ahead, while natural gas and electricity forecasts are informative out to the four-quarter horizon. In contrast, the DOE's coal price forecasts at two-, three-, and four-quarters ahead provide no incremental information beyond that provided for the one-quarter horizon. Recommendations of how to use these results for making forecast adjustments is also provided. (author)

  19. National Forecast Charts

    Science.gov (United States)

    code. Press enter or select the go button to submit request Local forecast by "City, St" or Prediction Center on Twitter NCEP Quarterly Newsletter WPC Home Analyses and Forecasts National Forecast to all federal, state, and local government web resources and services. National Forecast Charts

  20. Failure to Burrow and Tunnel Reveals Roles for jim lovell in the Growth and Endoreplication of the Drosophila Larval Tracheae.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fanli Zhou

    Full Text Available The Drosophila protein Jim Lovell (Lov is a putative transcription factor of the BTB/POZ (Bric- a-Brac/Tramtrack/Broad/ Pox virus and Zinc finger domain class that is expressed in many elements of the developing larval nervous system. It has roles in innate behaviors such as larval locomotion and adult courtship. In performing tissue-specific knockdown with the Gal4-UAS system we identified a new behavioral phenotype for lov: larvae failed to burrow into their food during their growth phase and then failed to tunnel into an agarose substratum during their wandering phase. We determined that these phenotypes originate in a previously unrecognized role for lov in the tracheae. By using tracheal-specific Gal4 lines, Lov immunolocalization and a lov enhancer trap line, we established that lov is normally expressed in the tracheae from late in embryogenesis through larval life. Using an assay that monitors food burrowing, substrate tunneling and death we showed that lov tracheal knockdown results in tracheal fluid-filling, producing hypoxia that activates the aberrant behaviors and inhibits development. We investigated the role of lov in the tracheae that initiates this sequence of events. We discovered that when lov levels are reduced, the tracheal cells are smaller, more numerous and show lower levels of endopolyploidization. Together our findings indicate that Lov is necessary for tracheal endoreplicative growth and that its loss in this tissue causes loss of tracheal integrity resulting in chronic hypoxia and abnormal burrowing and tunneling behavior.

  1. Effects of human disturbance on a burrow nesting seabird Efectos de la presencia de humanos en aves marinas que anidan en madrigueras

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuri V. Albores-Barajas

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available During 2004, we followed 72 natural burrows to determine the effects of disturbance on breeding success of Cassin's auklets (Ptychoramphus aleuticus. We used distance from a human settlement or path in the analysis of disturbance. Birds whose burrows were closer to the path or the village had a higher rate of nest abandonment and lower breeding success compared to birds nesting further away from the path or the village. Also, older and more experienced individuals represented a larger proportion of the breeding population on less disturbed areas than on highly disturbed ones, probably as older individuals tend to arrive earlier at the breeding grounds, and failed breeders may change burrow sites to move away from disturbance. P. aleuticus are adversely affected by human activity at colonies even if birds are not handled and burrows are not opened, and this has implications for conservation, and planning of ecotourism. On the long term, this can have negative consequences for this species and others with similar characteristics.Durante el 2004 seguimos 72 nidos de la alcuela (Ptychoramphus aleuticus para determinar los efectos de disturbio en el éxito reproductivo. Utilizamos la distancia del nido a áreas asentamientos humanos o al camino como medidas de disturbio. Los nidos que estaban más cerca de los asentamientos o del camino tuvieron una tasa de abandono mayor y un éxito reproductivo menor en comparación con los nidos que estaban más alejados de las fuentes de disturbio. También observamos que en las zonas menos expuestas la proporción de adultos, con mayor experiencia, era más alta, posiblemente porque los individuos con mayor experiencia llegan antes a la zona de anidación. Las alcuelas son afectadas negativamente por la presencia de los humanos y sus actividades, aunque las aves no entren en contacto directo con los humanos. A largo plazo, esto puede acarrear consecuencias graves para esta especie y otras con caracter

  2. Forecasting telecommunication new service demand by analogy method and combined forecast

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lin Feng-Jenq

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available In the modeling forecast field, we are usually faced with the more difficult problems of forecasting market demand for a new service or product. A new service or product is defined as that there is absence of historical data in this new market. We hardly use models to execute the forecasting work directly. In the Taiwan telecommunication industry, after liberalization in 1996, there are many new services opened continually. For optimal investment, it is necessary that the operators, who have been granted the concessions and licenses, forecast this new service within their planning process. Though there are some methods to solve or avoid this predicament, in this paper, we will propose one forecasting procedure that integrates the concept of analogy method and the idea of combined forecast to generate new service forecast. In view of the above, the first half of this paper describes the procedure of analogy method and the approach of combined forecast, and the second half provides the case of forecasting low-tier phone demand in Taiwan to illustrate this procedure's feasibility.

  3. Urban pollution of sediments: Impact on the physiology and burrowing activity of tubificid worms and consequences on biogeochemical processes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pigneret, M., E-mail: mathilde.pigneret@univ-lyon1.fr [LEHNA, UMR CNRS 5023, Ecologie des Hydrosystèmes Naturels et Anthropisés, Université de Lyon, Université Lyon 1, ENTPE, 6 rue Raphael Dubois, 69622 Villeurbanne (France); Mermillod-Blondin, F.; Volatier, L.; Romestaing, C. [LEHNA, UMR CNRS 5023, Ecologie des Hydrosystèmes Naturels et Anthropisés, Université de Lyon, Université Lyon 1, ENTPE, 6 rue Raphael Dubois, 69622 Villeurbanne (France); Maire, E.; Adrien, J. [MATEIS, UMR CNRS 5510, INSA de Lyon, 25 avenue Jean Capelle, 69621 Villeurbanne (France); Guillard, L.; Roussel, D.; Hervant, F. [LEHNA, UMR CNRS 5023, Ecologie des Hydrosystèmes Naturels et Anthropisés, Université de Lyon, Université Lyon 1, ENTPE, 6 rue Raphael Dubois, 69622 Villeurbanne (France)

    2016-10-15

    In urban areas, infiltration basins are designed to manage stormwater runoff from impervious surfaces and allow the settling of associated pollutants. The sedimentary layer deposited at the surface of these structures is highly organic and multicontaminated (mainly heavy metals and hydrocarbons). Only few aquatic species are able to maintain permanent populations in such an extreme environment, including the oligochaete Limnodrilus hoffmeisteri. Nevertheless, the impact of urban pollutants on these organisms and the resulting influence on infiltration basin functioning remain poorly studied. Thus, the aim of this study was to determine how polluted sediments could impact the survival, the physiology and the bioturbation activity of L. hoffmeisteri and thereby modify biogeochemical processes occurring at the water-sediment interface. To this end, we conducted laboratory incubations of worms, in polluted sediments from infiltration basins or slightly polluted sediments from a stream. Analyses were performed to evaluate physiological state and burrowing activity (X-ray micro-tomography) of worms and their influences on biogeochemical processes (nutrient fluxes, CO{sub 2} and CH{sub 4} degassing rates) during 30-day long experiments. Our results showed that worms exhibited physiological responses to cope with high pollution levels, including a strong ability to withstand the oxidative stress linked to contamination with heavy metals. We also showed that the presence of urban pollutants significantly increased the burrowing activity of L. hoffmeisteri, demonstrating the sensitivity and the relevance of such a behavioural response as biomarker of sediment toxicity. In addition, we showed that X-ray micro-tomography was an adequate technique for accurate and non-invasive three-dimensional investigations of biogenic structures formed by bioturbators. The presence of worms induced stimulations of nutrient fluxes and organic matter recycling (between + 100% and 200% of CO

  4. Exploring the interactions between forecast accuracy, risk perception and perceived forecast reliability in reservoir operator's decision to use forecast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shafiee-Jood, M.; Cai, X.

    2017-12-01

    Advances in streamflow forecasts at different time scales offer a promise for proactive flood management and improved risk management. Despite the huge potential, previous studies have found that water resources managers are often not willing to incorporate streamflow forecasts information in decisions making, particularly in risky situations. While low accuracy of forecasts information is often cited as the main reason, some studies have found that implementation of streamflow forecasts sometimes is impeded by institutional obstacles and behavioral factors (e.g., risk perception). In fact, a seminal study by O'Connor et al. (2005) found that risk perception is the strongest determinant of forecast use while managers' perception about forecast reliability is not significant. In this study, we aim to address this issue again. However, instead of using survey data and regression analysis, we develop a theoretical framework to assess the user-perceived value of streamflow forecasts. The framework includes a novel behavioral component which incorporates both risk perception and perceived forecast reliability. The framework is then used in a hypothetical problem where reservoir operator should react to probabilistic flood forecasts with different reliabilities. The framework will allow us to explore the interactions among risk perception and perceived forecast reliability, and among the behavioral components and information accuracy. The findings will provide insights to improve the usability of flood forecasts information through better communication and education.

  5. Burrowing Owl and Other Migratory Bird Mitigation for a Runway Construction Project at Edwards AFB

    OpenAIRE

    Hoehn, Amber L.; Hagan, Mark; Bratton, Mark

    2009-01-01

    Edwards Air Force Base (AFB) scheduled the construction of a runway in the spring of 2007. The runway would be in an area that contained migratory birds and their habitat. The construction project would be near Edwards AFB main runway and had the potential not only to impact species protected under the Migratory Bird Treaty Act (MBTA), including the burrowing owl (Athene cunicularia), but also to increase bird and wildlife–aircraft strike hazards in the active flightline areas. To discourage ...

  6. Fennec dust forecast intercomparison over the Sahara in June 2011

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J.-P. Chaboureau

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available In the framework of the Fennec international programme, a field campaign was conducted in June 2011 over the western Sahara. It led to the first observational data set ever obtained that documents the dynamics, thermodynamics and composition of the Saharan atmospheric boundary layer (SABL under the influence of the heat low. In support to the aircraft operation, four dust forecasts were run daily at low and high resolutions with convection-parameterizing and convection-permitting models, respectively. The unique airborne and ground-based data sets allowed the first ever intercomparison of dust forecasts over the western Sahara. At monthly scale, large aerosol optical depths (AODs were forecast over the Sahara, a feature observed by satellite retrievals but with different magnitudes. The AOD intensity was correctly predicted by the high-resolution models, while it was underestimated by the low-resolution models. This was partly because of the generation of strong near-surface wind associated with thunderstorm-related density currents that could only be reproduced by models representing convection explicitly. Such models yield emissions mainly in the afternoon that dominate the total emission over the western fringes of the Adrar des Iforas and the Aïr Mountains in the high-resolution forecasts. Over the western Sahara, where the harmattan contributes up to 80 % of dust emission, all the models were successful in forecasting the deep well-mixed SABL. Some of them, however, missed the large near-surface dust concentration generated by density currents and low-level winds. This feature, observed repeatedly by the airborne lidar, was partly forecast by one high-resolution model only.

  7. Combining multi-objective optimization and bayesian model averaging to calibrate forecast ensembles of soil hydraulic models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vrugt, Jasper A [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Wohling, Thomas [NON LANL

    2008-01-01

    Most studies in vadose zone hydrology use a single conceptual model for predictive inference and analysis. Focusing on the outcome of a single model is prone to statistical bias and underestimation of uncertainty. In this study, we combine multi-objective optimization and Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) to generate forecast ensembles of soil hydraulic models. To illustrate our method, we use observed tensiometric pressure head data at three different depths in a layered vadose zone of volcanic origin in New Zealand. A set of seven different soil hydraulic models is calibrated using a multi-objective formulation with three different objective functions that each measure the mismatch between observed and predicted soil water pressure head at one specific depth. The Pareto solution space corresponding to these three objectives is estimated with AMALGAM, and used to generate four different model ensembles. These ensembles are post-processed with BMA and used for predictive analysis and uncertainty estimation. Our most important conclusions for the vadose zone under consideration are: (1) the mean BMA forecast exhibits similar predictive capabilities as the best individual performing soil hydraulic model, (2) the size of the BMA uncertainty ranges increase with increasing depth and dryness in the soil profile, (3) the best performing ensemble corresponds to the compromise (or balanced) solution of the three-objective Pareto surface, and (4) the combined multi-objective optimization and BMA framework proposed in this paper is very useful to generate forecast ensembles of soil hydraulic models.

  8. Inflation Forecast Contracts

    OpenAIRE

    Gersbach, Hans; Hahn, Volker

    2012-01-01

    We introduce a new type of incentive contract for central bankers: inflation forecast contracts, which make central bankers’ remunerations contingent on the precision of their inflation forecasts. We show that such contracts enable central bankers to influence inflation expectations more effectively, thus facilitating more successful stabilization of current inflation. Inflation forecast contracts improve the accuracy of inflation forecasts, but have adverse consequences for output. On balanc...

  9. Earthquake focal mechanism forecasting in Italy for PSHA purposes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roselli, Pamela; Marzocchi, Warner; Mariucci, Maria Teresa; Montone, Paola

    2018-01-01

    In this paper, we put forward a procedure that aims to forecast focal mechanism of future earthquakes. One of the primary uses of such forecasts is in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA); in fact, aiming at reducing the epistemic uncertainty, most of the newer ground motion prediction equations consider, besides the seismicity rates, the forecast of the focal mechanism of the next large earthquakes as input data. The data set used to this purpose is relative to focal mechanisms taken from the latest stress map release for Italy containing 392 well-constrained solutions of events, from 1908 to 2015, with Mw ≥ 4 and depths from 0 down to 40 km. The data set considers polarity focal mechanism solutions until to 1975 (23 events), whereas for 1976-2015, it takes into account only the Centroid Moment Tensor (CMT)-like earthquake focal solutions for data homogeneity. The forecasting model is rooted in the Total Weighted Moment Tensor concept that weighs information of past focal mechanisms evenly distributed in space, according to their distance from the spatial cells and magnitude. Specifically, for each cell of a regular 0.1° × 0.1° spatial grid, the model estimates the probability to observe a normal, reverse, or strike-slip fault plane solution for the next large earthquakes, the expected moment tensor and the related maximum horizontal stress orientation. These results will be available for the new PSHA model for Italy under development. Finally, to evaluate the reliability of the forecasts, we test them with an independent data set that consists of some of the strongest earthquakes with Mw ≥ 3.9 occurred during 2016 in different Italian tectonic provinces.

  10. An Integrated Modeling Approach for Forecasting Long-Term Energy Demand in Pakistan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Syed Aziz Ur Rehman

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Energy planning and policy development require an in-depth assessment of energy resources and long-term demand forecast estimates. Pakistan, unfortunately, lacks reliable data on its energy resources as well do not have dependable long-term energy demand forecasts. As a result, the policy makers could not come up with an effective energy policy in the history of the country. Energy demand forecast has attained greatest ever attention in the perspective of growing population and diminishing fossil fuel resources. In this study, Pakistan’s energy demand forecast for electricity, natural gas, oil, coal and LPG across all the sectors of the economy have been undertaken. Three different energy demand forecasting methodologies, i.e., Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA, Holt-Winter and Long-range Energy Alternate Planning (LEAP model were used. The demand forecast estimates of each of these methods were compared using annual energy demand data. The results of this study suggest that ARIMA is more appropriate for energy demand forecasting for Pakistan compared to Holt-Winter model and LEAP model. It is estimated that industrial sector’s demand shall be highest in the year 2035 followed by transport and domestic sectors. The results further suggest that energy fuel mix will change considerably, such that oil will be the most highly consumed energy form (38.16% followed by natural gas (36.57%, electricity (16.22%, coal (7.52% and LPG (1.52% in 2035. In view of higher demand forecast of fossil fuels consumption, this study recommends that government should take the initiative for harnessing renewable energy resources for meeting future energy demand to not only avert huge import bill but also achieving energy security and sustainability in the long run.

  11. A Novel Nonlinear Combined Forecasting System for Short-Term Load Forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chengshi Tian

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Short-term load forecasting plays an indispensable role in electric power systems, which is not only an extremely challenging task but also a concerning issue for all society due to complex nonlinearity characteristics. However, most previous combined forecasting models were based on optimizing weight coefficients to develop a linear combined forecasting model, while ignoring that the linear combined model only considers the contribution of the linear terms to improving the model’s performance, which will lead to poor forecasting results because of the significance of the neglected and potential nonlinear terms. In this paper, a novel nonlinear combined forecasting system, which consists of three modules (improved data pre-processing module, forecasting module and the evaluation module is developed for short-term load forecasting. Different from the simple data pre-processing of most previous studies, the improved data pre-processing module based on longitudinal data selection is successfully developed in this system, which further improves the effectiveness of data pre-processing and then enhances the final forecasting performance. Furthermore, the modified support vector machine is developed to integrate all the individual predictors and obtain the final prediction, which successfully overcomes the upper drawbacks of the linear combined model. Moreover, the evaluation module is incorporated to perform a scientific evaluation for the developed system. The half-hourly electrical load data from New South Wales are employed to verify the effectiveness of the developed forecasting system, and the results reveal that the developed nonlinear forecasting system can be employed in the dispatching and planning for smart grids.

  12. Population traits of the burrowing toad Rhinella fernandezae (Gallardo, 1957 (Anura, Bufonidae Características populacionais do sapo Rhinella fernandezae (Anura, Bufonidae

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    LC. Sanchez

    2008-02-01

    Full Text Available Size distribution, sex ratio and use of burrows of the burrowing toad Rhinella fernandezae were studied in Buenos Aires province, Argentina. Two sites separated by approximately 300 m were studied: one was a road next to a swamp, and the other a garden of a country house located further from the swamp. We identified toad burrows, and individuals were sexed, measured and given an individual mark. Burrows were examined in subsequent months after the first sampling to assess the presence of toads. We found significant differences in the size distribution between areas, being the proportion of juveniles greater at the site next to the swamp where the reproduction of the species was observed. This result may suggest that the site located near to the swamp functions as a source habitat of individuals that migrate to the other site, where recruitment would be very scarce. Sex proportion of adults did not differ from 1:1 in neither the total population nor in each site, suggesting that there was not differential mortality by sex. Some toads changed burrows throughout the study period, but there were not differences in the frequency of change between adults and juveniles.Distribuição de tamanho, razão sexual operacional, e uso de covas do sapo Rhinella fernandezae foram estudados na província de Buenos Aires, Argentina, em dois sítios afastados 300 m. Um deles é uma trilha próxima a um pântano, o outro, um jardim de uma casa rural, mais afastado do pântano. Identificamos as covas dos sapos, e os indivíduos dentro delas foram sexados, medidos e marcados individualmente. As covas foram monitoradas mensalmente, depois da primeira amostragem para avaliar a presença dos sapos. Achamos diferenças na distribuição de tamanhos entres os sítios, sendo a proporção de juvenis maior naquele próximo ao pântano, onde a reprodução da espécie foi observada. O resultado sugere que o sítio próximo ao pântano funciona como um habitat fonte de indiv

  13. Magnetogram Forecast: An All-Clear Space Weather Forecasting System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barghouty, Nasser; Falconer, David

    2015-01-01

    Solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are the drivers of severe space weather. Forecasting the probability of their occurrence is critical in improving space weather forecasts. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) currently uses the McIntosh active region category system, in which each active region on the disk is assigned to one of 60 categories, and uses the historical flare rates of that category to make an initial forecast that can then be adjusted by the NOAA forecaster. Flares and CMEs are caused by the sudden release of energy from the coronal magnetic field by magnetic reconnection. It is believed that the rate of flare and CME occurrence in an active region is correlated with the free energy of an active region. While the free energy cannot be measured directly with present observations, proxies of the free energy can instead be used to characterize the relative free energy of an active region. The Magnetogram Forecast (MAG4) (output is available at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center) was conceived and designed to be a databased, all-clear forecasting system to support the operational goals of NASA's Space Radiation Analysis Group. The MAG4 system automatically downloads nearreal- time line-of-sight Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) magnetograms on the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) satellite, identifies active regions on the solar disk, measures a free-energy proxy, and then applies forecasting curves to convert the free-energy proxy into predicted event rates for X-class flares, M- and X-class flares, CMEs, fast CMEs, and solar energetic particle events (SPEs). The forecast curves themselves are derived from a sample of 40,000 magnetograms from 1,300 active region samples, observed by the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory Michelson Doppler Imager. Figure 1 is an example of MAG4 visual output

  14. Medium Range Forecasts Representation (and Long Range Forecasts?)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vincendon, J.-C.

    2009-09-01

    The progress of the numerical forecasts urges us to interest us in more and more distant ranges. We thus supply more and more forecasts with term of some days. Nevertheless, precautions of use are necessary to give the most reliable and the most relevant possible information. Available in a TV bulletin or on quite other support (Internet, mobile phone), the interpretation and the representation of a medium range forecast (5 - 15 days) must be different from those of a short range forecast. Indeed, the "foresee-ability” of a meteorological phenomenon decreases gradually in the course of the ranges, it decreases all the more quickly that the phenomenon is of small scale. So, at the end of some days, the probability character of a forecast becomes very widely dominating. That is why in Meteo-France the forecasts of D+4 to D+7 are accompanied with a confidence index since around ten years. It is a figure between 1 and 5: the more we approach 5, the more the confidence in the supplied forecast is good. In the practice, an indication is supplied for period D+4 / D+5, the other one for period D+6 / D+7, every day being able to benefit from a different forecast, that is be represented in a independent way. We thus supply a global tendency over 24 hours with less and less precise symbols as the range goes away. Concrete examples will be presented. From now on two years, we also publish forecasts to D+8 / J+9, accompanied with a sign of confidence (" good reliability " or " to confirm "). These two days are grouped together on a single map because for us, the described tendency to this term is relevant on a duration about 48 hours with a spatial scale slightly superior to the synoptic scale. So, we avoid producing more than two zones of types of weather over France and we content with giving an evolution for the temperatures (still, in increase or in decline). Newspapers began to publish this information, it should soon be the case of televisions. It is particularly

  15. Multi-platform operational validation of the Western Mediterranean SOCIB forecasting system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Juza, Mélanie; Mourre, Baptiste; Renault, Lionel; Tintoré, Joaquin

    2014-05-01

    The development of science-based ocean forecasting systems at global, regional, and local scales can support a better management of the marine environment (maritime security, environmental and resources protection, maritime and commercial operations, tourism, ...). In this context, SOCIB (the Balearic Islands Coastal Observing and Forecasting System, www.socib.es) has developed an operational ocean forecasting system in the Western Mediterranean Sea (WMOP). WMOP uses a regional configuration of the Regional Ocean Modelling System (ROMS, Shchepetkin and McWilliams, 2005) nested in the larger scale Mediterranean Forecasting System (MFS) with a spatial resolution of 1.5-2km. WMOP aims at reproducing both the basin-scale ocean circulation and the mesoscale variability which is known to play a crucial role due to its strong interaction with the large scale circulation in this region. An operational validation system has been developed to systematically assess the model outputs at daily, monthly and seasonal time scales. Multi-platform observations are used for this validation, including satellite products (Sea Surface Temperature, Sea Level Anomaly), in situ measurements (from gliders, Argo floats, drifters and fixed moorings) and High-Frequency radar data. The validation procedures allow to monitor and certify the general realism of the daily production of the ocean forecasting system before its distribution to users. Additionally, different indicators (Sea Surface Temperature and Salinity, Eddy Kinetic Energy, Mixed Layer Depth, Heat Content, transports in key sections) are computed every day both at the basin-scale and in several sub-regions (Alboran Sea, Balearic Sea, Gulf of Lion). The daily forecasts, validation diagnostics and indicators from the operational model over the last months are available at www.socib.es.

  16. The strategy of professional forecasting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ottaviani, Marco; Sørensen, Peter Norman

    2006-01-01

    We develop and compare two theories of professional forecasters’ strategic behavior. The first theory, reputational cheap talk, posits that forecasters endeavor to convince the market that they are well informed. The market evaluates their forecasting talent on the basis of the forecasts...... and the realized state. If the market expects forecasters to report their posterior expectations honestly, then forecasts are shaded toward the prior mean. With correct market expectations, equilibrium forecasts are imprecise but not shaded. The second theory posits that forecasters compete in a forecasting...... contest with pre-specified rules. In a winner-take-all contest, equilibrium forecasts are excessively differentiated...

  17. Journal of Earth System Science | Indian Academy of Sciences

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    These tubes bear mixed characters assignable to both crayfish burrows and large-diameter rhizoliths. Further work on these tubes is necessary to make more accurate interpretations of those structures. Shallow to moderate burrow depths; intermittent, short-lived colonization events and preservation of rhizoliths and ...

  18. Long-term infrastructure forecasting in the Gulf of Mexico: a decision- and resource-based approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaiser, M.J.; Mesyanzhinov, D.V.; Pulsipher, A.G.

    2004-01-01

    A long-term infrastructure forecast in the Gulf of Mexico is developed in a disaggregated decision- and resource-based environment. Models for the installation and removal rates of structures are performed across five water depth categories for the Western and Central Gulf of Mexico planning areas for structures grouped according to a major and nonmajor classification. Master hydrocarbon production schedules are constructed per water depth and planning area using a two-parameter decision model, where 'bundled' resources are recoverable at a given time and at a specific rate. The infrastructure requirements to support the expected production is determined by extrapolating historical data. The analytic forecasting framework allows for subjective judgement, technological change, analogy, and historical trends to be employed in a user-defined manner. Special attention to the aggregation procedures employed and the general methodological framework are highlighted, including a candid discussion of the limitations of analysis and suggestions for further research

  19. Are Forecast Updates Progressive?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    C-L. Chang (Chia-Lin); Ph.H.B.F. Franses (Philip Hans); M.J. McAleer (Michael)

    2010-01-01

    textabstractMacro-economic forecasts typically involve both a model component, which is replicable, as well as intuition, which is non-replicable. Intuition is expert knowledge possessed by a forecaster. If forecast updates are progressive, forecast updates should become more accurate, on average,

  20. Load forecasting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mak, H.

    1995-01-01

    Slides used in a presentation at The Power of Change Conference in Vancouver, BC in April 1995 about the changing needs for load forecasting were presented. Technological innovations and population increase were said to be the prime driving forces behind the changing needs in load forecasting. Structural changes, market place changes, electricity supply planning changes, and changes in planning objectives were other factors discussed. It was concluded that load forecasting was a form of information gathering, that provided important market intelligence

  1. Relating Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast Error Distributions with Measurements of Forecast Uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-03-01

    CYCLONE TRACK FORECAST ERROR DISTRIBUTIONS WITH MEASUREMENTS OF FORECAST UNCERTAINTY by Nicholas M. Chisler March 2016 Thesis Advisor...March 2016 3. REPORT TYPE AND DATES COVERED Master’s thesis 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE RELATING TROPICAL CYCLONE TRACK FORECAST ERROR DISTRIBUTIONS...WITH MEASUREMENTS OF FORECAST UNCERTAINTY 5. FUNDING NUMBERS 6. AUTHOR(S) Nicholas M. Chisler 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES

  2. Grey Forecast Rainfall with Flow Updating Algorithm for Real-Time Flood Forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jui-Yi Ho

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available The dynamic relationship between watershed characteristics and rainfall-runoff has been widely studied in recent decades. Since watershed rainfall-runoff is a non-stationary process, most deterministic flood forecasting approaches are ineffective without the assistance of adaptive algorithms. The purpose of this paper is to propose an effective flow forecasting system that integrates a rainfall forecasting model, watershed runoff model, and real-time updating algorithm. This study adopted a grey rainfall forecasting technique, based on existing hourly rainfall data. A geomorphology-based runoff model can be used for simulating impacts of the changing geo-climatic conditions on the hydrologic response of unsteady and non-linear watershed system, and flow updating algorithm were combined to estimate watershed runoff according to measured flow data. The proposed flood forecasting system was applied to three watersheds; one in the United States and two in Northern Taiwan. Four sets of rainfall-runoff simulations were performed to test the accuracy of the proposed flow forecasting technique. The results indicated that the forecast and observed hydrographs are in good agreement for all three watersheds. The proposed flow forecasting system could assist authorities in minimizing loss of life and property during flood events.

  3. Solar activity: nowcasting and forecasting at the SIDC

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Berghmans

    2005-11-01

    Full Text Available The Solar Influences Data analysis Center (SIDC is the World Data Center for the production and the distribution of the International Sunspot Index, coordinating a network of about 80 stations worldwide. From this core activity, the SIDC has grown in recent years to a European center for nowcasting and forecasting of solar activity on all timescales. This paper reviews the services (data, forecasts, alerts, software that the SIDC currently offers to the scientific community. The SIDC operates instruments both on the ground and in space. The USET telescope in Brussels produces daily white light and Hα images. Several members of the SIDC are co-investigators of the EIT instrument onboard SOHO and are involved in the development of the next generation of Europe's solar weather monitoring capabilities. While the SIDC is staffed only during day-time (7 days/week, the monitoring service is a 24 h activity thanks to the implementation of autonomous software for data handling and analysis and the sending of automated alerts. We will give an overview of recently developed techniques for visualization and automated analysis of solar images and detection of events significant for space weather (e.g. CMEs or EIT waves. As part of the involvement of the SIDC in the ESA Pilot Project for Space Weather Applications we have developed services dedicated to the users of the Global Positioning System (GPS. As a Regional Warning Center (RWC of the International Space Environment Service (ISES, the SIDC produces daily forecasts of flaring probability, geomagnetic activity and 10.7 cm radio flux. The accuracy of these forecasts will be investigated through an in-depth quality analysis.

  4. Development of Parallel Code for the Alaska Tsunami Forecast Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bahng, B.; Knight, W. R.; Whitmore, P.

    2014-12-01

    The Alaska Tsunami Forecast Model (ATFM) is a numerical model used to forecast propagation and inundation of tsunamis generated by earthquakes and other means in both the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. At the U.S. National Tsunami Warning Center (NTWC), the model is mainly used in a pre-computed fashion. That is, results for hundreds of hypothetical events are computed before alerts, and are accessed and calibrated with observations during tsunamis to immediately produce forecasts. ATFM uses the non-linear, depth-averaged, shallow-water equations of motion with multiply nested grids in two-way communications between domains of each parent-child pair as waves get closer to coastal waters. Even with the pre-computation the task becomes non-trivial as sub-grid resolution gets finer. Currently, the finest resolution Digital Elevation Models (DEM) used by ATFM are 1/3 arc-seconds. With a serial code, large or multiple areas of very high resolution can produce run-times that are unrealistic even in a pre-computed approach. One way to increase the model performance is code parallelization used in conjunction with a multi-processor computing environment. NTWC developers have undertaken an ATFM code-parallelization effort to streamline the creation of the pre-computed database of results with the long term aim of tsunami forecasts from source to high resolution shoreline grids in real time. Parallelization will also permit timely regeneration of the forecast model database with new DEMs; and, will make possible future inclusion of new physics such as the non-hydrostatic treatment of tsunami propagation. The purpose of our presentation is to elaborate on the parallelization approach and to show the compute speed increase on various multi-processor systems.

  5. Short-term residential load forecasting: Impact of calendar effects and forecast granularity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lusis, Peter; Khalilpour, Kaveh Rajab; Andrew, Lachlan

    2017-01-01

    forecasting for a single-customer or even down at an appliance level. Access to high resolution data from smart meters has enabled the research community to assess conventional load forecasting techniques and develop new forecasting strategies suitable for demand-side disaggregated loads. This paper studies...... how calendar effects, forecasting granularity and the length of the training set affect the accuracy of a day-ahead load forecast for residential customers. Root mean square error (RMSE) and normalized RMSE were used as forecast error metrics. Regression trees, neural networks, and support vector...... regression yielded similar average RMSE results, but statistical analysis showed that regression trees technique is significantly better. The use of historical load profiles with daily and weekly seasonality, combined with weather data, leaves the explicit calendar effects a very low predictive power...

  6. Strategic Forecasting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Duus, Henrik Johannsen

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this article is to present an overview of the area of strategic forecasting and its research directions and to put forward some ideas for improving management decisions. Design/methodology/approach: This article is conceptual but also informed by the author’s long contact...... and collaboration with various business firms. It starts by presenting an overview of the area and argues that the area is as much a way of thinking as a toolbox of theories and methodologies. It then spells out a number of research directions and ideas for management. Findings: Strategic forecasting is seen...... as a rebirth of long range planning, albeit with new methods and theories. Firms should make the building of strategic forecasting capability a priority. Research limitations/implications: The article subdivides strategic forecasting into three research avenues and suggests avenues for further research efforts...

  7. Spatial electric load forecasting

    CERN Document Server

    Willis, H Lee

    2002-01-01

    Containing 12 new chapters, this second edition contains offers increased-coverage of weather correction and normalization of forecasts, anticipation of redevelopment, determining the validity of announced developments, and minimizing risk from over- or under-planning. It provides specific examples and detailed explanations of key points to consider for both standard and unusual utility forecasting situations, information on new algorithms and concepts in forecasting, a review of forecasting pitfalls and mistakes, case studies depicting challenging forecast environments, and load models illustrating various types of demand.

  8. Preliminary report of biological intrusion studies at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory subsurface disposal area

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reynolds, T.D.; Arthur, W.J.

    1983-01-01

    As part of a larger study on the effects of biological intrusion of plants and animals into the soil cover placed over low-level radioactive wastes stored at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory Subsurface Disposal Area (SDA), research was initiated in the summer of 1982 to determine the burrow characteristics and movement patterns of several small mammal species, and the rooting depths of various plants. The depth, length, and volume of burrows were determined for four small mammal species: deer mouse (Peromyscus maniculatus), Ord's kangaroo rat (Dipodomys ordii), montane vole (Microtus montanus), and Townsend's ground squirrel (Spermophilis townsendii). The latter species excavated the greatest mean burrow depth (39 cm), length (404 cm), and volume (14.8 1). Movement patterns of three species were determined by radiotelemetry. The mean area of use for P. maniculatus, D. ordii, and M. montanus was 2.3, 1.5, and 1.2 ha respectively. Limited data on rooting depths of various native and introduced plant species at the SDA were obtained by literature review and excavation. During FY-83, experiments will be conducted, using the information obtained from the first year of this study, to evaluate the impact of burrowing mammals and root intrusion on the integrity of the soil cover currently existing at the SDA. Details of these experimental studies are presented

  9. Body and skull morphometric variations between two shovel-headed species of Amphisbaenia (Reptilia: Squamata with morphofunctional inferences on burrowing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leandro dos Santos Lima Hohl

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Background Morphological descriptions comparing Leposternon microcephalum and L. scutigerum have been made previously. However, these taxa lack a formal quantitative morphological characterization, and comparative studies suggest that morphology and burrowing performance are be related. The excavatory movements of L. microcephalum have been described in detail. However, there is a lack of studies comparing locomotor patterns and/or performance among different amphisbaenids sharing the same skull shape. This paper presents the first study of comparative morphometric variations between two closely related amphisbaenid species, L. microcephalum and L. scutigerum, with functional inferences on fossorial locomotion efficiency. Methods Inter-specific morphometric variations were verified through statistical analyses of body and cranial measures of L. microcephalum and L. scutigerum specimens. Their burrowing activity was assessed through X-ray videofluoroscopy and then compared. The influence of morphological variation on the speed of digging was tested among Leposternon individuals. Results Leposternon microcephalum and L. scutigerum are morphometrically distinct species. The first is shorter and robust with a wider head while the other is more elongated and slim with a narrower head. They share the same excavatory movements. The animals analyzed reached relatively high speeds, but individuals with narrower skulls dug faster. A negative correlation between the speed and the width of skull was determined, but not with total length or diameter of the body. Discussion The morphometric differences between L. microcephalum and L. scutigerum are in accord with morphological variations previously described. Since these species performed the same excavation pattern, we may infer that closely related amphisbaenids with the same skull type would exhibit the same excavatory pattern. The negative correlation between head width and excavation speed is also

  10. Electricity demand forecasting techniques

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gnanalingam, K.

    1994-01-01

    Electricity demand forecasting plays an important role in power generation. The two areas of data that have to be forecasted in a power system are peak demand which determines the capacity (MW) of the plant required and annual energy demand (GWH). Methods used in electricity demand forecasting include time trend analysis and econometric methods. In forecasting, identification of manpower demand, identification of key planning factors, decision on planning horizon, differentiation between prediction and projection (i.e. development of different scenarios) and choosing from different forecasting techniques are important

  11. Air Pollution Forecasts: An Overview.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bai, Lu; Wang, Jianzhou; Ma, Xuejiao; Lu, Haiyan

    2018-04-17

    Air pollution is defined as a phenomenon harmful to the ecological system and the normal conditions of human existence and development when some substances in the atmosphere exceed a certain concentration. In the face of increasingly serious environmental pollution problems, scholars have conducted a significant quantity of related research, and in those studies, the forecasting of air pollution has been of paramount importance. As a precaution, the air pollution forecast is the basis for taking effective pollution control measures, and accurate forecasting of air pollution has become an important task. Extensive research indicates that the methods of air pollution forecasting can be broadly divided into three classical categories: statistical forecasting methods, artificial intelligence methods, and numerical forecasting methods. More recently, some hybrid models have been proposed, which can improve the forecast accuracy. To provide a clear perspective on air pollution forecasting, this study reviews the theory and application of those forecasting models. In addition, based on a comparison of different forecasting methods, the advantages and disadvantages of some methods of forecasting are also provided. This study aims to provide an overview of air pollution forecasting methods for easy access and reference by researchers, which will be helpful in further studies.

  12. Air Pollution Forecasts: An Overview

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lu Bai

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Air pollution is defined as a phenomenon harmful to the ecological system and the normal conditions of human existence and development when some substances in the atmosphere exceed a certain concentration. In the face of increasingly serious environmental pollution problems, scholars have conducted a significant quantity of related research, and in those studies, the forecasting of air pollution has been of paramount importance. As a precaution, the air pollution forecast is the basis for taking effective pollution control measures, and accurate forecasting of air pollution has become an important task. Extensive research indicates that the methods of air pollution forecasting can be broadly divided into three classical categories: statistical forecasting methods, artificial intelligence methods, and numerical forecasting methods. More recently, some hybrid models have been proposed, which can improve the forecast accuracy. To provide a clear perspective on air pollution forecasting, this study reviews the theory and application of those forecasting models. In addition, based on a comparison of different forecasting methods, the advantages and disadvantages of some methods of forecasting are also provided. This study aims to provide an overview of air pollution forecasting methods for easy access and reference by researchers, which will be helpful in further studies.

  13. Air Pollution Forecasts: An Overview

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bai, Lu; Wang, Jianzhou; Lu, Haiyan

    2018-01-01

    Air pollution is defined as a phenomenon harmful to the ecological system and the normal conditions of human existence and development when some substances in the atmosphere exceed a certain concentration. In the face of increasingly serious environmental pollution problems, scholars have conducted a significant quantity of related research, and in those studies, the forecasting of air pollution has been of paramount importance. As a precaution, the air pollution forecast is the basis for taking effective pollution control measures, and accurate forecasting of air pollution has become an important task. Extensive research indicates that the methods of air pollution forecasting can be broadly divided into three classical categories: statistical forecasting methods, artificial intelligence methods, and numerical forecasting methods. More recently, some hybrid models have been proposed, which can improve the forecast accuracy. To provide a clear perspective on air pollution forecasting, this study reviews the theory and application of those forecasting models. In addition, based on a comparison of different forecasting methods, the advantages and disadvantages of some methods of forecasting are also provided. This study aims to provide an overview of air pollution forecasting methods for easy access and reference by researchers, which will be helpful in further studies. PMID:29673227

  14. Moving beyond the age-depth model paradigm in deep-sea palaeoclimate archives: dual radiocarbon and stable isotope analysis on single foraminifera

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lougheed, Bryan C.; Metcalfe, Brett; Ninnemann, Ulysses S.; Wacker, Lukas

    2018-04-01

    Late-glacial palaeoclimate reconstructions from deep-sea sediment archives provide valuable insight into past rapid changes in ocean chemistry. Unfortunately, only a small proportion of the ocean floor with sufficiently high sediment accumulation rate (SAR) is suitable for such reconstructions using the long-standing age-depth model approach. We employ ultra-small radiocarbon (14C) dating on single microscopic foraminifera to demonstrate that the long-standing age-depth model method conceals large age uncertainties caused by post-depositional sediment mixing, meaning that existing studies may underestimate total geochronological error. We find that the age-depth distribution of our 14C-dated single foraminifera is in good agreement with existing bioturbation models only after one takes the possibility of Zoophycos burrowing into account. To overcome the problems associated with the age-depth paradigm, we use the first ever dual 14C and stable isotope (δ18O and δ13C) analysis on single microscopic foraminifera to produce a palaeoclimate time series independent of the age-depth paradigm. This new state of the art essentially decouples single foraminifera from the age-depth paradigm to provide multiple floating, temporal snapshots of ocean chemistry, thus allowing for the successful extraction of temporally accurate palaeoclimate data from low-SAR deep-sea archives. This new method can address large geographical gaps in late-glacial benthic palaeoceanographic reconstructions by opening up vast areas of previously disregarded, low-SAR deep-sea archives to research, which will lead to an improved understanding of the global interaction between oceans and climate.

  15. Moving beyond the age–depth model paradigm in deep-sea palaeoclimate archives: dual radiocarbon and stable isotope analysis on single foraminifera

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. C. Lougheed

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Late-glacial palaeoclimate reconstructions from deep-sea sediment archives provide valuable insight into past rapid changes in ocean chemistry. Unfortunately, only a small proportion of the ocean floor with sufficiently high sediment accumulation rate (SAR is suitable for such reconstructions using the long-standing age–depth model approach. We employ ultra-small radiocarbon (14C dating on single microscopic foraminifera to demonstrate that the long-standing age–depth model method conceals large age uncertainties caused by post-depositional sediment mixing, meaning that existing studies may underestimate total geochronological error. We find that the age–depth distribution of our 14C-dated single foraminifera is in good agreement with existing bioturbation models only after one takes the possibility of Zoophycos burrowing into account. To overcome the problems associated with the age–depth paradigm, we use the first ever dual 14C and stable isotope (δ18O and δ13C analysis on single microscopic foraminifera to produce a palaeoclimate time series independent of the age–depth paradigm. This new state of the art essentially decouples single foraminifera from the age–depth paradigm to provide multiple floating, temporal snapshots of ocean chemistry, thus allowing for the successful extraction of temporally accurate palaeoclimate data from low-SAR deep-sea archives. This new method can address large geographical gaps in late-glacial benthic palaeoceanographic reconstructions by opening up vast areas of previously disregarded, low-SAR deep-sea archives to research, which will lead to an improved understanding of the global interaction between oceans and climate.

  16. Forecast Accuracy Uncertainty and Momentum

    OpenAIRE

    Bing Han; Dong Hong; Mitch Warachka

    2009-01-01

    We demonstrate that stock price momentum and earnings momentum can result from uncertainty surrounding the accuracy of cash flow forecasts. Our model has multiple information sources issuing cash flow forecasts for a stock. The investor combines these forecasts into an aggregate cash flow estimate that has minimal mean-squared forecast error. This aggregate estimate weights each cash flow forecast by the estimated accuracy of its issuer, which is obtained from their past forecast errors. Mome...

  17. Forecasting Cool Season Daily Peak Winds at Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barrett, Joe, III; Short, David; Roeder, William

    2008-01-01

    The expected peak wind speed for the day is an important element in the daily 24-Hour and Weekly Planning Forecasts issued by the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) for planning operations at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS). The morning outlook for peak speeds also begins the warning decision process for gusts ^ 35 kt, ^ 50 kt, and ^ 60 kt from the surface to 300 ft. The 45 WS forecasters have indicated that peak wind speeds are a challenging parameter to forecast during the cool season (October-April). The 45 WS requested that the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) develop a tool to help them forecast the speed and timing of the daily peak and average wind, from the surface to 300 ft on KSC/CCAFS during the cool season. The tool must only use data available by 1200 UTC to support the issue time of the Planning Forecasts. Based on observations from the KSC/CCAFS wind tower network, surface observations from the Shuttle Landing Facility (SLF), and CCAFS upper-air soundings from the cool season months of October 2002 to February 2007, the AMU created multiple linear regression equations to predict the timing and speed of the daily peak wind speed, as well as the background average wind speed. Several possible predictors were evaluated, including persistence, the temperature inversion depth, strength, and wind speed at the top of the inversion, wind gust factor (ratio of peak wind speed to average wind speed), synoptic weather pattern, occurrence of precipitation at the SLF, and strongest wind in the lowest 3000 ft, 4000 ft, or 5000 ft. Six synoptic patterns were identified: 1) surface high near or over FL, 2) surface high north or east of FL, 3) surface high south or west of FL, 4) surface front approaching FL, 5) surface front across central FL, and 6) surface front across south FL. The following six predictors were selected: 1) inversion depth, 2) inversion strength, 3) wind gust factor, 4) synoptic weather pattern, 5) occurrence of

  18. klax Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

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    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  9. kdfw Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  10. kssi Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  11. pahn Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  12. ksrq Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  13. kpvd Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  14. kisp Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  15. kttd Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  16. pmdy Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  17. kmgm Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  18. khib Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  19. pavd Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  20. kfar Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  1. kluk Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

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    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  2. kwwr Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  3. klse Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  4. ksts Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  5. koth Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  6. kbfl Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  7. ksgf Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  8. klch Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  9. kpkb Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  10. krog Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  11. kbjc Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  12. ksea Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  13. kbwi Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

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    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  15. kpuw Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  16. kabq Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

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    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

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    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  18. khio Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  19. klaf Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

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  1. ksmx Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

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    Data.gov (United States)

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  7. kdet Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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  9. kbur Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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  12. kloz Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  13. kcec Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

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  14. kdec Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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  1. pafa Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

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    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  3. tncm Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

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    Data.gov (United States)

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  15. kjac Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  16. Robust Approaches to Forecasting

    OpenAIRE

    Jennifer Castle; David Hendry; Michael P. Clements

    2014-01-01

    We investigate alternative robust approaches to forecasting, using a new class of robust devices, contrasted with equilibrium correction models. Their forecasting properties are derived facing a range of likely empirical problems at the forecast origin, including measurement errors, implulses, omitted variables, unanticipated location shifts and incorrectly included variables that experience a shift. We derive the resulting forecast biases and error variances, and indicate when the methods ar...

  17. Inaccuracy in traffic forecasts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Flyvbjerg, Bent; Holm, Mette K. Skamris; Buhl, Søren Ladegaard

    2006-01-01

    This paper presents results from the first statistically significant study of traffic forecasts in transportation infrastructure projects. The sample used is the largest of its kind, covering 210 projects in 14 nations worth US$58 billion. The study shows with very high statistical significance...... that forecasters generally do a poor job of estimating the demand for transportation infrastructure projects. The result is substantial downside financial and economic risk. Forecasts have not become more accurate over the 30-year period studied. If techniques and skills for arriving at accurate demand forecasts...... forecasting. Highly inaccurate traffic forecasts combined with large standard deviations translate into large financial and economic risks. But such risks are typically ignored or downplayed by planners and decision-makers, to the detriment of social and economic welfare. The paper presents the data...

  18. Potential influences of neglecting aerosol effects on the NCEP GFS precipitation forecast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Mengjiao; Feng, Jinqin; Li, Zhanqing; Sun, Ruiyu; Hou, Yu-Tai; Zhu, Yuejian; Wan, Bingcheng; Guo, Jianping; Cribb, Maureen

    2017-11-01

    Aerosol-cloud interactions (ACIs) have been widely recognized as a factor affecting precipitation. However, they have not been considered in the operational National Centers for Environmental Predictions Global Forecast System model. We evaluated the potential impact of neglecting ACI on the operational rainfall forecast using ground-based and satellite observations and model reanalysis. The Climate Prediction Center unified gauge-based precipitation analysis and the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications Version 2 aerosol reanalysis were used to evaluate the forecast in three countries for the year 2015. The overestimation of light rain (47.84 %) and underestimation of heavier rain (31.83, 52.94, and 65.74 % for moderate rain, heavy rain, and very heavy rain, respectively) from the model are qualitatively consistent with the potential errors arising from not accounting for ACI, although other factors cannot be totally ruled out. The standard deviation of the forecast bias was significantly correlated with aerosol optical depth in Australia, the US, and China. To gain further insight, we chose the province of Fujian in China to pursue a more insightful investigation using a suite of variables from gauge-based observations of precipitation, visibility, water vapor, convective available potential energy (CAPE), and satellite datasets. Similar forecast biases were found: over-forecasted light rain and under-forecasted heavy rain. Long-term analyses revealed an increasing trend in heavy rain in summer and a decreasing trend in light rain in other seasons, accompanied by a decreasing trend in visibility, no trend in water vapor, and a slight increasing trend in summertime CAPE. More aerosols decreased cloud effective radii for cases where the liquid water path was greater than 100 g m-2. All findings are consistent with the effects of ACI, i.e., where aerosols inhibit the development of shallow liquid clouds and invigorate warm-base mixed

  19. Potential influences of neglecting aerosol effects on the NCEP GFS precipitation forecast

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Jiang

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Aerosol–cloud interactions (ACIs have been widely recognized as a factor affecting precipitation. However, they have not been considered in the operational National Centers for Environmental Predictions Global Forecast System model. We evaluated the potential impact of neglecting ACI on the operational rainfall forecast using ground-based and satellite observations and model reanalysis. The Climate Prediction Center unified gauge-based precipitation analysis and the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications Version 2 aerosol reanalysis were used to evaluate the forecast in three countries for the year 2015. The overestimation of light rain (47.84 % and underestimation of heavier rain (31.83, 52.94, and 65.74 % for moderate rain, heavy rain, and very heavy rain, respectively from the model are qualitatively consistent with the potential errors arising from not accounting for ACI, although other factors cannot be totally ruled out. The standard deviation of the forecast bias was significantly correlated with aerosol optical depth in Australia, the US, and China. To gain further insight, we chose the province of Fujian in China to pursue a more insightful investigation using a suite of variables from gauge-based observations of precipitation, visibility, water vapor, convective available potential energy (CAPE, and satellite datasets. Similar forecast biases were found: over-forecasted light rain and under-forecasted heavy rain. Long-term analyses revealed an increasing trend in heavy rain in summer and a decreasing trend in light rain in other seasons, accompanied by a decreasing trend in visibility, no trend in water vapor, and a slight increasing trend in summertime CAPE. More aerosols decreased cloud effective radii for cases where the liquid water path was greater than 100 g m−2. All findings are consistent with the effects of ACI, i.e., where aerosols inhibit the development of shallow liquid clouds and

  20. An impact analysis of forecasting methods and forecasting parameters on bullwhip effect

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silitonga, R. Y. H.; Jelly, N.

    2018-04-01

    Bullwhip effect is an increase of variance of demand fluctuation from downstream to upstream of supply chain. Forecasting methods and forecasting parameters were recognized as some factors that affect bullwhip phenomena. To study these factors, we can develop simulations. There are several ways to simulate bullwhip effect in previous studies, such as mathematical equation modelling, information control modelling, computer program, and many more. In this study a spreadsheet program named Bullwhip Explorer was used to simulate bullwhip effect. Several scenarios were developed to show the change in bullwhip effect ratio because of the difference in forecasting methods and forecasting parameters. Forecasting methods used were mean demand, moving average, exponential smoothing, demand signalling, and minimum expected mean squared error. Forecasting parameters were moving average period, smoothing parameter, signalling factor, and safety stock factor. It showed that decreasing moving average period, increasing smoothing parameter, increasing signalling factor can create bigger bullwhip effect ratio. Meanwhile, safety stock factor had no impact to bullwhip effect.

  1. Flea abundance, diversity, and plague in Gunnison's prairie dogs (Cynomys gunnisoni) and their burrows in montane grasslands in northern New Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Megan M. Friggens; Robert R. Parmenter; Michael Boyden; Paulette L. Ford; Kenneth Gage; Paul Keim

    2010-01-01

    Plague, a flea-transmitted infectious disease caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis, is a primary threat to the persistence of prairie dog populations (Cynomys spp.). We conducted a 3-yr survey (2004-2006) of fleas from Gunnison's prairie dogs (Cynomys gunnisoni) and their burrows in montane grasslands in Valles Caldera National Preserve in New Mexico. Our...

  2. Effects of radiotransmitter necklaces on behaviors of adult male western burrowing owls

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chipman, E.D.; McIntyre, N.E.; Ray, J.D.; Wallace, M.C.; Boal, C.W.

    2007-01-01

    We studied the behavioral effects of necklace-style radiotransmitters on breeding male western burrowing owls (Athene cunicularia hypugaea) in 2 areas of northwestern Texas, USA, in 2004 and 2005. We tested the hypothesis that transmittered owls would spend time interacting with their necklaces and as a result spend less time in vigilance and resting activities than would nontransmittered owls. Nontransmittered owls (n = 6) spent significantly more time being vigilant (P = 0.007) than did transmittered owls (n = 3) in 2004, who spent significant amounts of time interacting with their necklaces. In 2005, behaviors of transmittered owls (n = 8) were significantly different (P of time interacting with their necklaces, they appeared to habituate to the presence of the transmitters within a relatively short period (<1 week), and necklaces did not affect survivorship or fitness in the short-term.

  3. Locomotory behaviour and functional morphology of Nematostella vectensis (Anthozoa: Actiniaria: Edwardsiidae): a contribution to a comparative study of burrowing behaviour in athenarian sea anemones

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Williams, R.B.

    2003-01-01

    The locomotory behaviour and functional morphology of English populations of a small (<2 cm long), burrowing athenarian sea anemone, Nematostella vectensis Stephenson, 1935 (= N. pellucida Crowell, 1946), which lives in soft mud in salt marshes and creeks, are described. Objectives were to ascertain

  4. Forecasting in Planning

    OpenAIRE

    Ike, P.; Voogd, Henk; Voogd, Henk; Linden, Gerard

    2004-01-01

    This chapter begins with a discussion of qualitative forecasting by describing a number of methods that depend on judgements made by stakeholders, experts or other interested parties to arrive at forecasts. Two qualitative approaches are illuminated, the Delphi and scenario methods respectively. Quantitative forecasting is illustrated with a brief overview of time series methods. Both qualitative and quantitative methods are illustrated by an example. The role and relative importance of forec...

  5. Effects of magnitude, depth, and time on cellular seismology forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fisher, Steven Wolf

    This study finds that, in most cases analyzed to date, past seismicity tends to delineate zones where future earthquakes are likely to occur. Network seismicity catalogs for the New Madrid Seismic Zone (NMSZ), Australia (AUS), California (CA), and Alaska (AK) are analyzed using modified versions of the Cellular Seismology (CS) method of Kafka (2002, 2007). The percentage of later occurring earthquakes located near earlier occurring earthquakes typically exceeds the expected percentage for randomly distributed later occurring earthquakes, and the specific percentage is influenced by several variables, including magnitude, depth, time, and tectonic setting. At 33% map area coverage, hit percents are typically 85-95% in the NMSZ, 50-60% in AUS, 75-85% in CA, and 75-85% in AK. Statistical significance testing is performed on trials analyzing the same variables so that the overall regions can be compared, although some tests are inconclusive due to the small number of earthquake sample sizes. These results offer useful insights into understanding the capabilities and limits of CS studies, which can provide guidance for improving the seismicity-based components of seismic hazard assessments.

  6. Ensemble Forecasts with Useful Skill-Spread Relationships for African meningitis and Asia Streamflow Forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hopson, T. M.

    2014-12-01

    One potential benefit of an ensemble prediction system (EPS) is its capacity to forecast its own forecast error through the ensemble spread-error relationship. In practice, an EPS is often quite limited in its ability to represent the variable expectation of forecast error through the variable dispersion of the ensemble, and perhaps more fundamentally, in its ability to provide enough variability in the ensembles dispersion to make the skill-spread relationship even potentially useful (irrespective of whether the EPS is well-calibrated or not). In this paper we examine the ensemble skill-spread relationship of an ensemble constructed from the TIGGE (THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble) dataset of global forecasts and a combination of multi-model and post-processing approaches. Both of the multi-model and post-processing techniques are based on quantile regression (QR) under a step-wise forward selection framework leading to ensemble forecasts with both good reliability and sharpness. The methodology utilizes the ensemble's ability to self-diagnose forecast instability to produce calibrated forecasts with informative skill-spread relationships. A context for these concepts is provided by assessing the constructed ensemble in forecasting district-level humidity impacting the incidence of meningitis in the meningitis belt of Africa, and in forecasting flooding events in the Brahmaputra and Ganges basins of South Asia.

  7. Uncertainty Assessment: Reservoir Inflow Forecasting with Ensemble Precipitation Forecasts and HEC-HMS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sheng-Chi Yang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available During an extreme event, having accurate inflow forecasting with enough lead time helps reservoir operators decrease the impact of floods downstream. Furthermore, being able to efficiently operate reservoirs could help maximize flood protection while saving water for drier times of the year. This study combines ensemble quantitative precipitation forecasts and a hydrological model to provide a 3-day reservoir inflow in the Shihmen Reservoir, Taiwan. A total of six historical typhoons were used for model calibration, validation, and application. An understanding of cascaded uncertainties from the numerical weather model through the hydrological model is necessary for a better use for forecasting. This study thus conducted an assessment of forecast uncertainty on magnitude and timing of peak and cumulative inflows. It found that using the ensemble-mean had less uncertainty than randomly selecting individual member. The inflow forecasts with shorter length of cumulative time had a higher uncertainty. The results showed that using the ensemble precipitation forecasts with the hydrological model would have the advantage of extra lead time and serve as a valuable reference for operating reservoirs.

  8. Using Temperature Forecasts to Improve Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts in the Colorado and Rio Grande Basins

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lehner, F.; Wood, A.; Llewellyn, D.; Blatchford, D. B.; Goodbody, A. G.; Pappenberger, F.

    2017-12-01

    Recent studies have documented the influence of increasing temperature on streamflow across the American West, including snow-melt driven rivers such as the Colorado or Rio Grande. At the same time, some basins are reporting decreasing skill in seasonal streamflow forecasts, termed water supply forecasts (WSFs), over the recent decade. While the skill in seasonal precipitation forecasts from dynamical models remains low, their skill in predicting seasonal temperature variations could potentially be harvested for WSFs to account for non-stationarity in regional temperatures. Here, we investigate whether WSF skill can be improved by incorporating seasonal temperature forecasts from dynamical forecasting models (from the North American Multi Model Ensemble and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast System 4) into traditional statistical forecast models. We find improved streamflow forecast skill relative to traditional WSF approaches in a majority of headwater locations in the Colorado and Rio Grande basins. Incorporation of temperature into WSFs thus provides a promising avenue to increase the robustness of current forecasting techniques in the face of continued regional warming.

  9. About the National Forecast Chart

    Science.gov (United States)

    code. Press enter or select the go button to submit request Local forecast by "City, St" or Prediction Center on Twitter NCEP Quarterly Newsletter WPC Home Analyses and Forecasts National Forecast to all federal, state, and local government web resources and services. The National Forecast Charts

  10. Hydro-meteorological evaluation of downscaled global ensemble rainfall forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaborit, Étienne; Anctil, François; Fortin, Vincent; Pelletier, Geneviève

    2013-04-01

    Ensemble rainfall forecasts are of high interest for decision making, as they provide an explicit and dynamic assessment of the uncertainty in the forecast (Ruiz et al. 2009). However, for hydrological forecasting, their low resolution currently limits their use to large watersheds (Maraun et al. 2010). In order to bridge this gap, various implementations of the statistic-stochastic multi-fractal downscaling technique presented by Perica and Foufoula-Georgiou (1996) were compared, bringing Environment Canada's global ensemble rainfall forecasts from a 100 by 70-km resolution down to 6 by 4-km, while increasing each pixel's rainfall variance and preserving its original mean. For comparison purposes, simpler methods were also implemented such as the bi-linear interpolation, which disaggregates global forecasts without modifying their variance. The downscaled meteorological products were evaluated using different scores and diagrams, from both a meteorological and a hydrological view points. The meteorological evaluation was conducted comparing the forecasted rainfall depths against nine days of observed values taken from Québec City rain gauge database. These 9 days present strong precipitation events occurring during the summer of 2009. For the hydrologic evaluation, the hydrological models SWMM5 and (a modified version of) GR4J were implemented on a small 6 km2 urban catchment located in the Québec City region. Ensemble hydrologic forecasts with a time step of 3 hours were then performed over a 3-months period of the summer of 2010 using the original and downscaled ensemble rainfall forecasts. The most important conclusions of this work are that the overall quality of the forecasts was preserved during the disaggregation procedure and that the disaggregated products using this variance-enhancing method were of similar quality than bi-linear interpolation products. However, variance and dispersion of the different members were, of course, much improved for the

  11. Short-term natural gas consumption forecasting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Potocnik, P.; Govekar, E.; Grabec, I.

    2007-01-01

    Energy forecasting requirements for Slovenia's natural gas market were investigated along with the cycles of natural gas consumption. This paper presented a short-term natural gas forecasting approach where the daily, weekly and yearly gas consumption were analyzed and the information obtained was incorporated into the forecasting model for hourly forecasting for the next day. The natural gas market depends on forecasting in order to optimize the leasing of storage capacities. As such, natural gas distribution companies have an economic incentive to accurately forecast their future gas consumption. The authors proposed a forecasting model with the following properties: two submodels for the winter and summer seasons; input variables including past consumption data, weather data, weather forecasts and basic cycle indexes; and, a hierarchical forecasting structure in which a daily model was used as the basis, with the hourly forecast obtained by modeling the relative daily profile. This proposed method was illustrated by a forecasting example for Slovenia's natural gas market. 11 refs., 11 figs

  12. Operational forecasting based on a modified Weather Research and Forecasting model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lundquist, J; Glascoe, L; Obrecht, J

    2010-03-18

    Accurate short-term forecasts of wind resources are required for efficient wind farm operation and ultimately for the integration of large amounts of wind-generated power into electrical grids. Siemens Energy Inc. and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, with the University of Colorado at Boulder, are collaborating on the design of an operational forecasting system for large wind farms. The basis of the system is the numerical weather prediction tool, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model; large-eddy simulations and data assimilation approaches are used to refine and tailor the forecasting system. Representation of the atmospheric boundary layer is modified, based on high-resolution large-eddy simulations of the atmospheric boundary. These large-eddy simulations incorporate wake effects from upwind turbines on downwind turbines as well as represent complex atmospheric variability due to complex terrain and surface features as well as atmospheric stability. Real-time hub-height wind speed and other meteorological data streams from existing wind farms are incorporated into the modeling system to enable uncertainty quantification through probabilistic forecasts. A companion investigation has identified optimal boundary-layer physics options for low-level forecasts in complex terrain, toward employing decadal WRF simulations to anticipate large-scale changes in wind resource availability due to global climate change.

  13. Space Weather Forecasting at IZMIRAN

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaidash, S. P.; Belov, A. V.; Abunina, M. A.; Abunin, A. A.

    2017-12-01

    Since 1998, the Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere, and Radio Wave Propagation (IZMIRAN) has had an operating heliogeophysical service—the Center for Space Weather Forecasts. This center transfers the results of basic research in solar-terrestrial physics into daily forecasting of various space weather parameters for various lead times. The forecasts are promptly available to interested consumers. This article describes the center and the main types of forecasts it provides: solar and geomagnetic activity, magnetospheric electron fluxes, and probabilities of proton increases. The challenges associated with the forecasting of effects of coronal mass ejections and coronal holes are discussed. Verification data are provided for the center's forecasts.

  14. Oribatid mites (Acari: Oribatida) in casts and burrows of an endemic earthworm .i.Dendrobaena mrazeki./i. and in litter of thermophilous oak forests

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Starý, Josef; Pižl, Václav

    2007-01-01

    Roč. 26, č. 4 (2007), s. 390-397 ISSN 1335-342X R&D Projects: GA ČR GA206/03/0056 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z60660521 Keywords : soil oribatid mites * earthworms * casts and burrows Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 0.085, year: 2005

  15. Distribution of enzyme activity hotspots induced by earthworms in top- and subsoil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoang, D. T. T.

    2016-12-01

    Earthworms (Lumbricus terrestris L.) not only affect soil physics, but they also boost microbial activities and consequently create important hotspots of microbial mediated carbon and nutrient turnover through their burrowing activity. However, it is still unknown to which extend earthworms change the enzyme distribution and activity inside their burrows in top- and subsoil horizons. We hypothesized that earthworm burrows, which are enriched in available substrates, have higher percentage of enzyme activity hotspots than soil without earthworms, and that enzyme activities decreased with increasing depth because of the increasing recalcitrance of organic matter in subsoil. We visualized enzyme distribution inside and outside of worm burrows (biopores) by in situ soil zymography and measured enzyme kinetics of 6 enzymes - β-glucosidase (GLU), cellobiohydrolase (CBH), xylanase (XYL), chitinase (NAG), leucine aminopeptidase (LAP) and acid phosphatase (APT) - in pore and bulk soil material up to 105 cm. Zymography showed a heterogeneous distribution of hotspots in worm burrows. The hotspot areas was 2.4 to 14 times larger in the burrows than in soil without earthworms. However, the dispersion index of hotspot distribution showed more aggregated hotspots in soil without earthworms than in soil with earthworms and burrow wall. Enzyme activities decreased with depth, by a factor of 2 to 8 due to fresh C input from the soil surface. Compared to bulk soil, enzyme activities in topsoil biopores were up to 11 times higher for all enzymes, but in the subsoil activities of XYL, NAG and APT were lower in earthworm biopores than bulk soil. In conclusion, hotspots were twice as concentrated close to earthworm burrows as in surrounding soil. Earthworms exerted stronger effects on enzyme activities in biopores in the topsoil than in subsoil. Keywords: Earthworms, hotspots, enzyme activities, enzyme distribution, subsoil

  16. Bayesian flood forecasting methods: A review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Shasha; Coulibaly, Paulin

    2017-08-01

    Over the past few decades, floods have been seen as one of the most common and largely distributed natural disasters in the world. If floods could be accurately forecasted in advance, then their negative impacts could be greatly minimized. It is widely recognized that quantification and reduction of uncertainty associated with the hydrologic forecast is of great importance for flood estimation and rational decision making. Bayesian forecasting system (BFS) offers an ideal theoretic framework for uncertainty quantification that can be developed for probabilistic flood forecasting via any deterministic hydrologic model. It provides suitable theoretical structure, empirically validated models and reasonable analytic-numerical computation method, and can be developed into various Bayesian forecasting approaches. This paper presents a comprehensive review on Bayesian forecasting approaches applied in flood forecasting from 1999 till now. The review starts with an overview of fundamentals of BFS and recent advances in BFS, followed with BFS application in river stage forecasting and real-time flood forecasting, then move to a critical analysis by evaluating advantages and limitations of Bayesian forecasting methods and other predictive uncertainty assessment approaches in flood forecasting, and finally discusses the future research direction in Bayesian flood forecasting. Results show that the Bayesian flood forecasting approach is an effective and advanced way for flood estimation, it considers all sources of uncertainties and produces a predictive distribution of the river stage, river discharge or runoff, thus gives more accurate and reliable flood forecasts. Some emerging Bayesian forecasting methods (e.g. ensemble Bayesian forecasting system, Bayesian multi-model combination) were shown to overcome limitations of single model or fixed model weight and effectively reduce predictive uncertainty. In recent years, various Bayesian flood forecasting approaches have been

  17. Bayesian analyses of seasonal runoff forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krzysztofowicz, R.; Reese, S.

    1991-12-01

    Forecasts of seasonal snowmelt runoff volume provide indispensable information for rational decision making by water project operators, irrigation district managers, and farmers in the western United States. Bayesian statistical models and communication frames have been researched in order to enhance the forecast information disseminated to the users, and to characterize forecast skill from the decision maker's point of view. Four products are presented: (i) a Bayesian Processor of Forecasts, which provides a statistical filter for calibrating the forecasts, and a procedure for estimating the posterior probability distribution of the seasonal runoff; (ii) the Bayesian Correlation Score, a new measure of forecast skill, which is related monotonically to the ex ante economic value of forecasts for decision making; (iii) a statistical predictor of monthly cumulative runoffs within the snowmelt season, conditional on the total seasonal runoff forecast; and (iv) a framing of the forecast message that conveys the uncertainty associated with the forecast estimates to the users. All analyses are illustrated with numerical examples of forecasts for six gauging stations from the period 1971 1988.

  18. Forecasts: uncertain, inaccurate and biased?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nicolaisen, Morten Skou; Ambrasaite, Inga; Salling, Kim Bang

    2012-01-01

    Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA) is the dominating methodology for appraisal of transport infrastructure projects across the globe. In order to adequately assess the costs and benefits of such projects two types of forecasts are crucial to the validity of the appraisal. First are the forecasts of cons....... It is recommended that more attention is given to monitoring completed projects so future forecasts can benefit from better data availability through systematic ex-post evaluations, and an example of how to utilize such data in practice is presented.......Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA) is the dominating methodology for appraisal of transport infrastructure projects across the globe. In order to adequately assess the costs and benefits of such projects two types of forecasts are crucial to the validity of the appraisal. First are the forecasts...... of construction costs, which account for the majority of total project costs. Second are the forecasts of travel time savings, which account for the majority of total project benefits. The latter of these is, inter alia, determined by forecasts of travel demand, which we shall use as a proxy for the forecasting...

  19. Dry season distribution of land crabs, Gecarcinus quadratus (Crustacea: Gecarcinidae), in Corcovado National Park, Costa Rica.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griffiths, Megan E; Mohammad, Basma A; Vega, Andres

    2007-03-01

    The land crab Gecarcinus quadratus is an engineering species that controls nutrient cycling in tropical forests. Factors regulating their coastal distribution are not fully understood. We quantified land crab distribution during the dry season at Sirena Field Station in Corcovado National Park, Costa Rica, and found that land crab burrow density decreases with increasing distance from the ocean. Leaf litter depth and tree seedling density are negatively correlated with land crab burrow density. Burrows are strongly associated with sand substrate and burrow density is comparatively low in clay substrate. Results suggest that G. quadratus is limited to a narrow coastal zone with sand substrate, and this distribution could have profound effects on plant community structure.

  20. Seasonal Drought Forecasting for Latin America Using the ECMWF S4 Forecast System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hugo Carrão

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available Meaningful seasonal prediction of drought conditions is key information for end-users and water managers, particularly in Latin America where crop and livestock production are key for many regional economies. However, there are still not many studies of the feasibility of such a forecasts at continental level in the region. In this study, precipitation predictions from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather (ECMWF seasonal forecast system S4 are combined with observed precipitation data to generate forecasts of the standardized precipitation index (SPI for Latin America, and their skill is evaluated over the hindcast period 1981–2010. The value-added utility in using the ensemble S4 forecast to predict the SPI is identified by comparing the skill of its forecasts with a baseline skill based solely on their climatological characteristics. As expected, skill of the S4-generated SPI forecasts depends on the season, location, and the specific aggregation period considered (the 3- and 6-month SPI were evaluated. Added skill from the S4 for lead times equaling the SPI accumulation periods is primarily present in regions with high intra-annual precipitation variability, and is found mostly for the months at the end of the dry seasons for 3-month SPI, and half-yearly periods for 6-month SPI. The ECMWF forecast system behaves better than the climatology for clustered grid points in the North of South America, the Northeast of Argentina, Uruguay, southern Brazil and Mexico. The skillful regions are similar for the SPI3 and -6, but become reduced in extent for the severest SPI categories. Forecasting different magnitudes of meteorological drought intensity on a seasonal time scale still remains a challenge. However, the ECMWF S4 forecasting system does capture the occurrence of drought events for the aforementioned regions and seasons reasonably well. In the near term, the largest advances in the prediction of meteorological drought for Latin

  1. More intense experiences, less intense forecasts: why people overweight probability specifications in affective forecasts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buechel, Eva C; Zhang, Jiao; Morewedge, Carey K; Vosgerau, Joachim

    2014-01-01

    We propose that affective forecasters overestimate the extent to which experienced hedonic responses to an outcome are influenced by the probability of its occurrence. The experience of an outcome (e.g., winning a gamble) is typically more affectively intense than the simulation of that outcome (e.g., imagining winning a gamble) upon which the affective forecast for it is based. We suggest that, as a result, experiencers allocate a larger share of their attention toward the outcome (e.g., winning the gamble) and less to its probability specifications than do affective forecasters. Consequently, hedonic responses to an outcome are less sensitive to its probability specifications than are affective forecasts for that outcome. The results of 6 experiments provide support for our theory. Affective forecasters overestimated how sensitive experiencers would be to the probability of positive and negative outcomes (Experiments 1 and 2). Consistent with our attentional account, differences in sensitivity to probability specifications disappeared when the attention of forecasters was diverted from probability specifications (Experiment 3) or when the attention of experiencers was drawn toward probability specifications (Experiment 4). Finally, differences in sensitivity to probability specifications between forecasters and experiencers were diminished when the forecasted outcome was more affectively intense (Experiments 5 and 6).

  2. Load forecasting for supermarket refrigeration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bacher, Peder; Madsen, Henrik; Aalborg Nielsen, Henrik

    This report presents a study of models for forecasting the load for supermarket refrigeration. The data used for building the forecasting models consists of load measurements, local climate measurements and weather forecasts. The load measurements are from a supermarket located in a village...... in Denmark. The load for refrigeration is the sum of all cabinets in the supermarket, both low and medium temperature cabinets, and spans a period of one year. As input to the forecasting models the ambient temperature observed near the supermarket together with weather forecasts are used. Every hour...

  3. Estimating population size of a nocturnal burrow-nesting seabird using acoustic monitoring and habitat mapping

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Steffen Oppel

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Population size assessments for nocturnal burrow-nesting seabirds are logistically challenging because these species are active in colonies only during darkness and often nest on remote islands where manual inspections of breeding burrows are not feasible. Many seabird species are highly vocal, and recent technological innovations now make it possible to record and quantify vocal activity in seabird colonies. Here we test the hypothesis that remotely recorded vocal activity in Cory’s shearwater (Calonectris borealis breeding colonies in the North Atlantic increases with nest density, and combined this relationship with cliff habitat mapping to estimate the population size of Cory’s shearwaters on the island of Corvo (Azores. We deployed acoustic recording devices in 9 Cory’s shearwater colonies of known size to establish a relationship between vocal activity and local nest density (slope = 1.07, R2 = 0.86, p < 0.001. We used this relationship to predict the nest density in various cliff habitat types and produced a habitat map of breeding cliffs to extrapolate nest density around the island of Corvo. The mean predicted nest density on Corvo ranged from 6.6 (2.1–16.2 to 27.8 (19.5–36.4 nests/ha. Extrapolation of habitat-specific nest densities across the cliff area of Corvo resulted in an estimate of 6326 Cory’s shearwater nests (95% confidence interval: 3735–10,524. This population size estimate is similar to previous assessments, but is too imprecise to detect moderate changes in population size over time. While estimating absolute population size from acoustic recordings may not be sufficiently precise, the strong positive relationship that we found between local nest density and recorded calling rate indicates that passive acoustic monitoring may be useful to document relative changes in seabird populations over time.

  4. Forecast Combination under Heavy-Tailed Errors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gang Cheng

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Forecast combination has been proven to be a very important technique to obtain accurate predictions for various applications in economics, finance, marketing and many other areas. In many applications, forecast errors exhibit heavy-tailed behaviors for various reasons. Unfortunately, to our knowledge, little has been done to obtain reliable forecast combinations for such situations. The familiar forecast combination methods, such as simple average, least squares regression or those based on the variance-covariance of the forecasts, may perform very poorly due to the fact that outliers tend to occur, and they make these methods have unstable weights, leading to un-robust forecasts. To address this problem, in this paper, we propose two nonparametric forecast combination methods. One is specially proposed for the situations in which the forecast errors are strongly believed to have heavy tails that can be modeled by a scaled Student’s t-distribution; the other is designed for relatively more general situations when there is a lack of strong or consistent evidence on the tail behaviors of the forecast errors due to a shortage of data and/or an evolving data-generating process. Adaptive risk bounds of both methods are developed. They show that the resulting combined forecasts yield near optimal mean forecast errors relative to the candidate forecasts. Simulations and a real example demonstrate their superior performance in that they indeed tend to have significantly smaller prediction errors than the previous combination methods in the presence of forecast outliers.

  5. World Area Forecast System (WAFS)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The World Area Forecast System (WAFS) is a worldwide system by which world area forecast centers provide aeronautical meteorological en-route forecasts in uniform...

  6. Sub-Seasonal Climate Forecast Rodeo

    Science.gov (United States)

    Webb, R. S.; Nowak, K.; Cifelli, R.; Brekke, L. D.

    2017-12-01

    The Bureau of Reclamation, as the largest water wholesaler and the second largest producer of hydropower in the United States, benefits from skillful forecasts of future water availability. Researchers, water managers from local, regional, and federal agencies, and groups such as the Western States Water Council agree that improved precipitation and temperature forecast information at the sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescale is an area with significant potential benefit to water management. In response, and recognizing NOAA's leadership in forecasting, Reclamation has partnered with NOAA to develop and implement a real-time S2S forecasting competition. For a year, solvers are submitting forecasts of temperature and precipitation for weeks 3&4 and 5&6 every two weeks on a 1x1 degree grid for the 17 western state domain where Reclamation operates. The competition began on April 18, 2017 and the final real-time forecast is due April 3, 2018. Forecasts are evaluated once observational data become available using spatial anomaly correlation. Scores are posted on a competition leaderboard hosted by the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS). The leaderboard can be accessed at: https://www.drought.gov/drought/sub-seasonal-climate-forecast-rodeo. To be eligible for cash prizes - which total $800,000 - solvers must outperform two benchmark forecasts during the real-time competition as well as in a required 11-year hind-cast. To receive a prize, competitors must grant a non-exclusive license to practice their forecast technique and make it available as open source software. At approximately one quarter complete, there are teams outperforming the benchmarks in three of the four competition categories. With prestige and monetary incentives on the line, it is hoped that the competition will spur innovation of improved S2S forecasts through novel approaches, enhancements to established models, or otherwise. Additionally, the competition aims to raise

  7. An Operational Coastal Forecasting System in Galicia (NW Spain)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balseiro, C. F.; Carracedo, P.; Pérez, E.; Pérez, V.; Taboada, J.; Venacio, A.; Vilasa, L.

    2009-09-01

    The Galician coast (NW Iberian Peninsula coast) and mainly the Rias Baixas (southern Galician rias) are one of the most productive ecosystems in the world, supporting a very active fishing and aquiculture industry. This high productivity lives together with a high human pressure and an intense maritime traffic, which means an important environmental risk. Besides that, Harmful Algae Blooms (HAB) are common in this area, producing important economical losses in aquiculture. In this context, the development of an Operational Hydrodynamic Ocean Forecast System is the first step to the development of a more sophisticated Ocean Integrated Decision Support Tool. A regional oceanographic forecasting system in the Galician Coast has been developed by MeteoGalicia (the Galician regional meteorological agency) inside ESEOO project to provide forecasts on currents, sea level, water temperature and salinity. This system is based on hydrodynamic model MOHID, forced with the operational meteorological model WRF, supported daily at MeteoGalicia . Two grid meshes are running nested at different scales, one of ~2km at the shelf scale and the other one with a resolution of 500 m at the rias scale. ESEOAT (Puertos del Estado) model provide salinity and temperature fields which are relaxed at all depth along the open boundary of the regional model (~6km). Temperature and salinity initial fields are also obtained from this application. Freshwater input from main rivers are included as forcing in MOHID model. Monthly mean discharge data from gauge station have been provided by Aguas de Galicia. Nowadays a coupling between an hydrological model (SWAT) and the hydrodynamic one are in development with the aim to verify the impact of the rivers discharges. The system runs operationally daily, providing two days of forecast. First model verifications had been performed against Puertos del Estado buoys and Xunta de Galicia buoys network along the Galician coast. High resolution model results

  8. Forecasting global atmospheric CO2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Agusti-Panareda, A.; Massart, S.; Boussetta, S.; Balsamo, G.; Beljaars, A.; Engelen, R.; Jones, L.; Peuch, V.H.; Chevallier, F.; Ciais, P.; Paris, J.D.; Sherlock, V.

    2014-01-01

    A new global atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) real-time forecast is now available as part of the preoperational Monitoring of Atmospheric Composition and Climate - Interim Implementation (MACC-II) service using the infrastructure of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Integrated Forecasting System (IFS). One of the strengths of the CO 2 forecasting system is that the land surface, including vegetation CO 2 fluxes, is modelled online within the IFS. Other CO 2 fluxes are prescribed from inventories and from off-line statistical and physical models. The CO 2 forecast also benefits from the transport modelling from a state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction (NWP) system initialized daily with a wealth of meteorological observations. This paper describes the capability of the forecast in modelling the variability of CO 2 on different temporal and spatial scales compared to observations. The modulation of the amplitude of the CO 2 diurnal cycle by near-surface winds and boundary layer height is generally well represented in the forecast. The CO 2 forecast also has high skill in simulating day-to-day synoptic variability. In the atmospheric boundary layer, this skill is significantly enhanced by modelling the day-to-day variability of the CO 2 fluxes from vegetation compared to using equivalent monthly mean fluxes with a diurnal cycle. However, biases in the modelled CO 2 fluxes also lead to accumulating errors in the CO 2 forecast. These biases vary with season with an underestimation of the amplitude of the seasonal cycle both for the CO 2 fluxes compared to total optimized fluxes and the atmospheric CO 2 compared to observations. The largest biases in the atmospheric CO 2 forecast are found in spring, corresponding to the onset of the growing season in the Northern Hemisphere. In the future, the forecast will be re-initialized regularly with atmospheric CO 2 analyses based on the assimilation of CO 2 products retrieved from satellite

  9. Surface wave effect on the upper ocean in marine forecast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Guansuo; Qiao, Fangli; Xia, Changshui; Zhao, Chang

    2015-04-01

    An Operational Coupled Forecast System for the seas off China and adjacent (OCFS-C) is constructed based on the paralleled wave-circulation coupled model, which is tested with comprehensive experiments and operational since November 1st, 2007. The main feature of the system is that the wave-induced mixing is considered in circulation model. Daily analyses and three day forecasts of three-dimensional temperature, salinity, currents and wave height are produced. Coverage is global at 1/2 degreed resolution with nested models up to 1/24 degree resolution in China Sea. Daily remote sensing sea surface temperatures (SST) are taken to relax to an analytical product as hot restarting fields for OCFS-C by the Nudging techniques. Forecasting-data inter-comparisons are performed to measure the effectiveness of OCFS-C in predicting upper-ocean quantities including SST, mixed layer depth (MLD) and subsurface temperature. The variety of performance with lead time and real-time is discussed as well using the daily statistic results for SST between forecast and satellite data. Several buoy observations and many Argo profiles are used for this validation. Except the conventional statistical metrics, non-dimension skill scores (SS) is taken to estimate forecast skill. Model SST comparisons with more one year-long SST time series from 2 buoys given a large SS value (more than 0.90). And skill in predicting the seasonal variability of SST is confirmed. Model subsurface temperature comparisons with that from a lot of Argo profiles indicated that OCFS-C has low skill in predicting subsurface temperatures between 80m and 120m. Inter-comparisons of MLD reveal that MLD from model is shallower than that from Argo profiles by about 12m. QCFS-C is successful and steady in predicting MLD. The daily statistic results for SST between 1-d, 2-d and 3-d forecast and data is adopted to describe variability of Skill in predicting SST with lead time or real time. In a word QCFS-C shows reasonable

  10. Evaluation of Probabilistic Disease Forecasts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hughes, Gareth; Burnett, Fiona J

    2017-10-01

    The statistical evaluation of probabilistic disease forecasts often involves calculation of metrics defined conditionally on disease status, such as sensitivity and specificity. However, for the purpose of disease management decision making, metrics defined conditionally on the result of the forecast-predictive values-are also important, although less frequently reported. In this context, the application of scoring rules in the evaluation of probabilistic disease forecasts is discussed. An index of separation with application in the evaluation of probabilistic disease forecasts, described in the clinical literature, is also considered and its relation to scoring rules illustrated. Scoring rules provide a principled basis for the evaluation of probabilistic forecasts used in plant disease management. In particular, the decomposition of scoring rules into interpretable components is an advantageous feature of their application in the evaluation of disease forecasts.

  11. Forecasting in Planning

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ike, P.; Voogd, Henk; Voogd, Henk; Linden, Gerard

    2004-01-01

    This chapter begins with a discussion of qualitative forecasting by describing a number of methods that depend on judgements made by stakeholders, experts or other interested parties to arrive at forecasts. Two qualitative approaches are illuminated, the Delphi and scenario methods respectively.

  12. Weather Forecasts are for Wimps. Why Water Resource Managers Do Not Use Climate Forecasts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rayner, S. [James Martin Institute of Science and Civilization, Said Business School, University of Oxford, OX1 1HP (United Kingdom); Lach, D. [Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR, 97331-4501 (United States); Ingram, H. [School of Social Ecology, University of California Irvine, Irvine, CA, 92697-7075 (United States)

    2005-04-15

    Short-term climate forecasting offers the promise of improved hydrologic management strategies. However, water resource managers in the United States have proven reluctant to incorporate them in decision making. While managers usually cite poor reliability of the forecasts as the reason for this, they are seldom able to demonstrate knowledge of the actual performance of forecasts or to consistently articulate the level of reliability that they would require. Analysis of three case studies in California, the Pacific Northwest, and metro Washington DC identifies institutional reasons that appear to lie behind managers reluctance to use the forecasts. These include traditional reliance on large built infrastructure, organizational conservatism and complexity, mismatch of temporal and spatial scales of forecasts to management needs, political disincentives to innovation, and regulatory constraints. The paper concludes that wider acceptance of the forecasts will depend on their being incorporated in existing organizational routines and industrial codes and practices, as well as changes in management incentives to innovation. Finer spatial resolution of forecasts and the regional integration of multi-agency functions would also enhance their usability. The title of this article is taken from an advertising slogan for the Oldsmobile Bravura SUV.

  13. A convection-allowing ensemble forecast based on the breeding growth mode and associated optimization of precipitation forecast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Xiang; He, Hongrang; Chen, Chaohui; Miao, Ziqing; Bai, Shigang

    2017-10-01

    A convection-allowing ensemble forecast experiment on a squall line was conducted based on the breeding growth mode (BGM). Meanwhile, the probability matched mean (PMM) and neighborhood ensemble probability (NEP) methods were used to optimize the associated precipitation forecast. The ensemble forecast predicted the precipitation tendency accurately, which was closer to the observation than in the control forecast. For heavy rainfall, the precipitation center produced by the ensemble forecast was also better. The Fractions Skill Score (FSS) results indicated that the ensemble mean was skillful in light rainfall, while the PMM produced better probability distribution of precipitation for heavy rainfall. Preliminary results demonstrated that convection-allowing ensemble forecast could improve precipitation forecast skill through providing valuable probability forecasts. It is necessary to employ new methods, such as the PMM and NEP, to generate precipitation probability forecasts. Nonetheless, the lack of spread and the overprediction of precipitation by the ensemble members are still problems that need to be solved.

  14. Using a Software Tool in Forecasting: a Case Study of Sales Forecasting Taking into Account Data Uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fabianová, Jana; Kačmáry, Peter; Molnár, Vieroslav; Michalik, Peter

    2016-10-01

    Forecasting is one of the logistics activities and a sales forecast is the starting point for the elaboration of business plans. Forecast accuracy affects the business outcomes and ultimately may significantly affect the economic stability of the company. The accuracy of the prediction depends on the suitability of the use of forecasting methods, experience, quality of input data, time period and other factors. The input data are usually not deterministic but they are often of random nature. They are affected by uncertainties of the market environment, and many other factors. Taking into account the input data uncertainty, the forecast error can by reduced. This article deals with the use of the software tool for incorporating data uncertainty into forecasting. Proposals are presented of a forecasting approach and simulation of the impact of uncertain input parameters to the target forecasted value by this case study model. The statistical analysis and risk analysis of the forecast results is carried out including sensitivity analysis and variables impact analysis.

  15. The AviaDem forecasting model: illustration of a forecasting case at Amsterdam Schiphol Airport

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Veldhuis, J.; Lieshout, R.

    2010-01-01

    The paper describes an aviation market forecasting model which focuses on market forecasts for airports. Most forecasting models in use today assess aviation trends resulting from macroeconomic trends. The model described in this paper has this feature built in, but the added value of this model is

  16. Use of Markov chains for forecasting labor requirements in black coal mines

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Penar, L.; Przybyla, H.

    1987-01-01

    Increasing mining depth, deterioration of mining conditions and technology development are causes of changes in labor requirements. In mines with stable coal output these changes in most cases are of a qualitative character, in mines with an increasing or decreasing coal output they are of a quantitative character. Methods for forecasting personnel needs, in particular professional requirements, are discussed. Quantitative and qualitative changes are accurately described by heterogenous Markov chains. A structure consisting of interdependent variables is the subject of a forecast. Changes that occur within the structure of time units is the subject of investigations. For a homogenous Markov chain probabilities of a transition from the i-state to the j-state are determined (the probabilities being time independent). For a heterogenous Markov chain probabilities of a transition from the i-state to the j-state are non-conditioned. The method was developed for the ODRA 1325 computers. 8 refs.

  17. Forecasting droughts in West Africa: Operational practice and refined seasonal precipitation forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bliefernicht, Jan; Siegmund, Jonatan; Seidel, Jochen; Arnold, Hanna; Waongo, Moussa; Laux, Patrick; Kunstmann, Harald

    2016-04-01

    Precipitation forecasts for the upcoming rainy seasons are one of the most important sources of information for an early warning of droughts and water scarcity in West Africa. The meteorological services in West Africa perform seasonal precipitation forecasts within the framework of PRESAO (the West African climate outlook forum) since the end of the 1990s. Various sources of information and statistical techniques are used by the individual services to provide a harmonized seasonal precipitation forecasts for decision makers in West Africa. In this study, we present a detailed overview of the operational practice in West Africa including a first statistical assessment of the performance of the precipitation forecasts for drought situations for the past 18 years (1998 to 2015). In addition, a long-term hindcasts (1982 to 2009) and a semi-operational experiment for the rainy season 2013 using statistical and/or dynamical downscaling are performed to refine the precipitation forecasts from the Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2), a global ensemble prediction system. This information is post-processed to provide user-oriented precipitation indices such as the onset of the rainy season for supporting water and land use management for rain-fed agriculture. The evaluation of the individual techniques is performed focusing on water-scarce regions of the Volta basin in Burkina Faso and Ghana. The forecasts of the individual techniques are compared to state-of-the-art global observed precipitation products and a novel precipitation database based on long-term daily rain-gage measurements provided by the national meteorological services. The statistical assessment of the PRESAO forecasts indicates skillful seasonal precipitation forecasts for many locations in the Volta basin, particularly for years with water deficits. The operational experiment for the rainy season 2013 illustrates the high potential of a physically-based downscaling for this region but still shows

  18. Rebuttal of "Polar bear population forecasts: a public-policy forecasting audit"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amstrup, Steven C.; Caswell, Hal; DeWeaver, Eric; Stirling, Ian; Douglas, David C.; Marcot, Bruce G.; Hunter, Christine M.

    2009-01-01

    Observed declines in the Arctic sea ice have resulted in a variety of negative effects on polar bears (Ursus maritimus). Projections for additional future declines in sea ice resulted in a proposal to list polar bears as a threatened species under the United States Endangered Species Act. To provide information for the Department of the Interior's listing-decision process, the US Geological Survey (USGS) produced a series of nine research reports evaluating the present and future status of polar bears throughout their range. In response, Armstrong et al. [Armstrong, J. S., K. C. Green, W. Soon. 2008. Polar bear population forecasts: A public-policy forecasting audit. Interfaces 38(5) 382–405], which we will refer to as AGS, performed an audit of two of these nine reports. AGS claimed that the general circulation models upon which the USGS reports relied were not valid forecasting tools, that USGS researchers were not objective or lacked independence from policy decisions, that they did not utilize all available information in constructing their forecasts, and that they violated numerous principles of forecasting espoused by AGS. AGS (p. 382) concluded that the two USGS reports were "unscientific and inconsequential to decision makers." We evaluate the AGS audit and show how AGS are mistaken or misleading on every claim. We provide evidence that general circulation models are useful in forecasting future climate conditions and that corporate and government leaders are relying on these models to do so. We clarify the strict independence of the USGS from the listing decision. We show that the allegations of failure to follow the principles of forecasting espoused by AGS are either incorrect or are based on misconceptions about the Arctic environment, polar bear biology, or statistical and mathematical methods. We conclude by showing that the AGS principles of forecasting are too ambiguous and subjective to be used as a reliable basis for auditing scientific

  19. Shave-off depth profiling: Depth profiling with an absolute depth scale

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nojima, M.; Maekawa, A.; Yamamoto, T.; Tomiyasu, B.; Sakamoto, T.; Owari, M.; Nihei, Y.

    2006-01-01

    Shave-off depth profiling provides profiling with an absolute depth scale. This method uses a focused ion beam (FIB) micro-machining process to provide the depth profile. We show that the shave-off depth profile of a particle reflected the spherical shape of the sample and signal intensities had no relationship to the depth. Through the introduction of FIB micro-sampling, the shave-off depth profiling of a dynamic random access memory (DRAM) tip was carried out. The shave-off profile agreed with a blue print from the manufacturing process. Finally, shave-off depth profiling is discussed with respect to resolutions and future directions

  20. Combining forecast weights: Why and how?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yin, Yip Chee; Kok-Haur, Ng; Hock-Eam, Lim

    2012-09-01

    This paper proposes a procedure called forecast weight averaging which is a specific combination of forecast weights obtained from different methods of constructing forecast weights for the purpose of improving the accuracy of pseudo out of sample forecasting. It is found that under certain specified conditions, forecast weight averaging can lower the mean squared forecast error obtained from model averaging. In addition, we show that in a linear and homoskedastic environment, this superior predictive ability of forecast weight averaging holds true irrespective whether the coefficients are tested by t statistic or z statistic provided the significant level is within the 10% range. By theoretical proofs and simulation study, we have shown that model averaging like, variance model averaging, simple model averaging and standard error model averaging, each produces mean squared forecast error larger than that of forecast weight averaging. Finally, this result also holds true marginally when applied to business and economic empirical data sets, Gross Domestic Product (GDP growth rate), Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Average Lending Rate (ALR) of Malaysia.

  1. Analysing UK real estate market forecast disagreement

    OpenAIRE

    McAllister, Patrick; Newell, G.; Matysiak, George

    2005-01-01

    Given the significance of forecasting in real estate investment decisions, this paper investigates forecast uncertainty and disagreement in real estate market forecasts. Using the Investment Property Forum (IPF) quarterly survey amongst UK independent real estate forecasters, these real estate forecasts are compared with actual real estate performance to assess a number of real estate forecasting issues in the UK over 1999-2004, including real estate forecast error, bias and consensus. The re...

  2. Potential predictability and forecast skill in ensemble climate forecast: the skill-persistence rule

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jin, Y.; Rong, X.; Liu, Z.

    2017-12-01

    This study investigates the factors that impact the forecast skill for the real world (actual skill) and perfect model (perfect skill) in ensemble climate model forecast with a series of fully coupled general circulation model forecast experiments. It is found that the actual skill of sea surface temperature (SST) in seasonal forecast is substantially higher than the perfect skill on a large part of the tropical oceans, especially the tropical Indian Ocean and the central-eastern Pacific Ocean. The higher actual skill is found to be related to the higher observational SST persistence, suggesting a skill-persistence rule: a higher SST persistence in the real world than in the model could overwhelm the model bias to produce a higher forecast skill for the real world than for the perfect model. The relation between forecast skill and persistence is further examined using a first-order autoregressive model (AR1) analytically for theoretical solutions and numerically for analogue experiments. The AR1 model study shows that the skill-persistence rule is strictly valid in the case of infinite ensemble size, but can be distorted by the sampling error and non-AR1 processes.

  3. Real-time flood inundation forecasting and mapping for key railway infrastructure: a UK case study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Murphy Alexandra T.

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Flooding events that impede railway infrastructure can cause severe travel delays for the general public and large fines in delayed minutes for the rail industry. Early warnings of flood inundation can give more time to implement mitigation measures which help reduce cancellations, delays and fines. Initial work is reported on the development of a real-time flood inundation forecasting and mapping system for the Cowley Bridge track area near Exeter, UK. This location is on one of the main access routes to South West England and has suffered major floods in the past resulting in significant transport impacts. Flood forecasting systems in the UK mainly forecast river level/flow rather than extent and depth of flood inundation. Here, the development of a chain of coupled models is discussed that link rainfall to river flow, river level and flood extent for the rail track area relating to Cowley Bridge. Historical events are identified to test model performance in predicting inundation of railway infrastructure. The modelling system will operate alongside a series of in-situ sensors chosen to enhance the flood mapping forecasting system. Sensor data will support offline model calibration/verification and real-time data assimilation as well as monitoring flood conditions to inform track closure decisions.

  4. Quantile forecast discrimination ability and value

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ben Bouallègue, Zied; Pinson, Pierre; Friederichs, Petra

    2015-01-01

    While probabilistic forecast verification for categorical forecasts is well established, some of the existing concepts and methods have not found their equivalent for the case of continuous variables. New tools dedicated to the assessment of forecast discrimination ability and forecast value are ...... is illustrated based on synthetic datasets, as well as for the case of global radiation forecasts from the high resolution ensemble COSMO-DE-EPS of the German Weather Service....

  5. Wind and load forecast error model for multiple geographically distributed forecasts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Reyes-Spindola, Jorge F.; Samaan, Nader; Diao, Ruisheng; Hafen, Ryan P. [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA (United States)

    2010-07-01

    The impact of wind and load forecast errors on power grid operations is frequently evaluated by conducting multi-variant studies, where these errors are simulated repeatedly as random processes based on their known statistical characteristics. To simulate these errors correctly, we need to reflect their distributions (which do not necessarily follow a known distribution law), standard deviations. auto- and cross-correlations. For instance, load and wind forecast errors can be closely correlated in different zones of the system. This paper introduces a new methodology for generating multiple cross-correlated random processes to produce forecast error time-domain curves based on a transition probability matrix computed from an empirical error distribution function. The matrix will be used to generate new error time series with statistical features similar to observed errors. We present the derivation of the method and some experimental results obtained by generating new error forecasts together with their statistics. (orig.)

  6. Shifts in the diets of slimy sculpin (Cottus cognatus) and lake whitefish (Coregonus clupeaformis) in Lake Ontario following the collapse of the burrowing amphipod Diporeia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Owens, Randall W.; Dittman, Dawn E.

    2003-01-01

    In Lake Ontario, the diets of slimy sculpin Cottus cognatus and lake whitefish Coregonus clupeaformis shifted from a diet dominated by the burrowing amphipod, Diporeia, and to a lesser extent, Mysis, to a more diverse diet, after Diporeia collapsed, to one dominated by Mysis and prey that were formerly less important or uncommon such as Chironomidae, Oligochaeta, and Ostracoda. Additionally, lake whitefish still preyed on native mollusks like Sphaeriidae and Gastropoda, but also preyed on exotic mollusks, Dreissena spp., which are swallowed intact and subsequently crushed in its muscular stomach. Whether Diporeia was abundant (1992) or scarce (1999), selection indices for Diporeia by slimy sculpins was positive, suggesting that Diporeia was a preferred prey. Unlike lake whitefish, slimy sculpins avoided Dreissena; therefore, energy diverted to Dreissena production was a real loss for slimy sculpins. The shifts in the diet of these benthic fishes corresponded with drastic changes in the benthic community between 1992 and 1999. The collapse of Diporeia, formerly the most abundant macroinvertebrate in the benthic community, along with sharp declines in the abundance of Oligochaeta and Sphaeriidae, coincided with the establishment and rapid expansion of Dreissena bugensis, the quagga mussel, and to a lesser degree Dreissena polymorpha, the zebra mussel. It appears that the Diporeia population first collapsed at depths >70 m in southeastern Lake Ontario by autumn 1992, at shallower depths in the eastern Lake Ontario by 1995, and along the entire south shore line at depths 100 m by 1999. In response to the disappearance of Diporeia, populations of two native benthivores, slimy sculpin and lake whitefish, collapsed in eastern Lake Ontario, perhaps due in part to starvation, because Diporeia was their principal prey. Presently, alternative food resources do not appear sufficient to sustain these two benthivores at their former levels of abundance. We do not expect slimy

  7. 25 years of time series forecasting

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Gooijer, J.G.; Hyndman, R.J.

    2006-01-01

    We review the past 25 years of research into time series forecasting. In this silver jubilee issue, we naturally highlight results published in journals managed by the International Institute of Forecasters (Journal of Forecasting 1982-1985 and International Journal of Forecasting 1985-2005). During

  8. EMD-RBFNN Coupling Prediction Model of Complex Regional Groundwater Depth Series: A Case Study of the Jiansanjiang Administration of Heilongjiang Land Reclamation in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qiang Fu

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available The accurate and reliable prediction of groundwater depth is the basis of the sustainable utilization of regional groundwater resources. However, the complexity of the prediction has been ignored in previous studies of regional groundwater depth system analysis and prediction, making it difficult to realize the scientific management of groundwater resources. To address this defect, taking complexity diagnosis as the research foundation, this paper proposes a new coupling forecast strategy for evaluating groundwater depth based on empirical mode decomposition (EMD and a radial basis function neural network (RBFNN. The data used for complexity analysis and modelling are the monthly groundwater depth series monitoring data from 15 long-term monitoring wells from 1997 to 2007, which were collected from the Jiansanjiang Administration of Heilongjiang Agricultural Reclamation in China. The calculation results of the comprehensive complexity index for each groundwater depth series obtained are based on wavelet theory, fractal theory, and the approximate entropy method. The monthly groundwater depth sequence of District 8 of Farm Nongjiang, which has the highest complexity among the five farms in the Jiansanjiang Administration midland, was chosen as the modelling sample series. The groundwater depth series of District 8 of Farm Nongjiang was separated into five intrinsic mode function (IMF sequences and a remainder sequence by applying the EMD method, which revealed that local groundwater depth has a significant one-year periodic character and an increasing trend. The RBFNN was then used to forecast and stack each EMD separation sequence. The results suggest that the future groundwater depth will remain at approximately 10 m if the past pattern of water use continues, exceeding the ideal depth of groundwater. Thus, local departments should take appropriate countermeasures to conserve groundwater resources effectively.

  9. Price forecasting of day-ahead electricity markets using a hybrid forecast method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shafie-khah, M.; Moghaddam, M. Parsa; Sheikh-El-Eslami, M.K.

    2011-01-01

    Research highlights: → A hybrid method is proposed to forecast the day-ahead prices in electricity market. → The method combines Wavelet-ARIMA and RBFN network models. → PSO method is applied to obtain optimum RBFN structure for avoiding over fitting. → One of the merits of the proposed method is lower need to the input data. → The proposed method has more accurate behavior in compare with previous methods. -- Abstract: Energy price forecasting in a competitive electricity market is crucial for the market participants in planning their operations and managing their risk, and it is also the key information in the economic optimization of the electric power industry. However, price series usually have a complex behavior due to their nonlinearity, nonstationarity, and time variancy. In this paper, a novel hybrid method to forecast day-ahead electricity price is proposed. This hybrid method is based on wavelet transform, Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models and Radial Basis Function Neural Networks (RBFN). The wavelet transform provides a set of better-behaved constitutive series than price series for prediction. ARIMA model is used to generate a linear forecast, and then RBFN is developed as a tool for nonlinear pattern recognition to correct the estimation error in wavelet-ARIMA forecast. Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) is used to optimize the network structure which makes the RBFN be adapted to the specified training set, reducing computation complexity and avoiding overfitting. The proposed method is examined on the electricity market of mainland Spain and the results are compared with some of the most recent price forecast methods. The results show that the proposed hybrid method could provide a considerable improvement for the forecasting accuracy.

  10. Price forecasting of day-ahead electricity markets using a hybrid forecast method

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shafie-khah, M., E-mail: miadreza@gmail.co [Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Moghaddam, M. Parsa, E-mail: parsa@modares.ac.i [Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Sheikh-El-Eslami, M.K., E-mail: aleslam@modares.ac.i [Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of)

    2011-05-15

    Research highlights: {yields} A hybrid method is proposed to forecast the day-ahead prices in electricity market. {yields} The method combines Wavelet-ARIMA and RBFN network models. {yields} PSO method is applied to obtain optimum RBFN structure for avoiding over fitting. {yields} One of the merits of the proposed method is lower need to the input data. {yields} The proposed method has more accurate behavior in compare with previous methods. -- Abstract: Energy price forecasting in a competitive electricity market is crucial for the market participants in planning their operations and managing their risk, and it is also the key information in the economic optimization of the electric power industry. However, price series usually have a complex behavior due to their nonlinearity, nonstationarity, and time variancy. In this paper, a novel hybrid method to forecast day-ahead electricity price is proposed. This hybrid method is based on wavelet transform, Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models and Radial Basis Function Neural Networks (RBFN). The wavelet transform provides a set of better-behaved constitutive series than price series for prediction. ARIMA model is used to generate a linear forecast, and then RBFN is developed as a tool for nonlinear pattern recognition to correct the estimation error in wavelet-ARIMA forecast. Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) is used to optimize the network structure which makes the RBFN be adapted to the specified training set, reducing computation complexity and avoiding overfitting. The proposed method is examined on the electricity market of mainland Spain and the results are compared with some of the most recent price forecast methods. The results show that the proposed hybrid method could provide a considerable improvement for the forecasting accuracy.

  11. Forecast communication through the newspaper Part 1: Framing the forecaster

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harris, Andrew J. L.

    2015-04-01

    This review is split into two parts both of which address issues of forecast communication of an environmental disaster through the newspaper during a period of crisis. The first part explores the process by which information passes from the scientist or forecaster, through the media filter, to the public. As part of this filter preference, omission, selection of data, source, quote and story, as well as placement of the same information within an individual piece or within the newspaper itself, can serve to distort the message. The result is the introduction of bias and slant—that is, the message becomes distorted so as to favor one side of the argument against another as it passes through the filter. Bias can be used to support spin or agenda setting, so that a particular emphasis becomes placed on the story which exerts an influence on the reader's judgment. The net result of the filter components is either a negative (contrary) or positive (supportive) frame. Tabloidization of the news has also resulted in the use of strong, evocative, exaggerated words, headlines and images to support a frame. I illustrate these various elements of the media filter using coverage of the air space closure due to the April 2010 eruption of Eyjafjallajökull (Iceland). Using the British press coverage of this event it is not difficult to find examples of all media filter elements, application of which resulted in bias against the forecast and forecaster. These actors then became named and blamed. Within this logic, it becomes only too easy for forecasters and scientists to be framed in a negative way through blame culture. The result is that forecast is framed in such a way so as to cause the forecaster to be blamed for all losses associated with the loss-causing event. Within the social amplification of risk framework (SARF), this can amplify a negative impression of the risk, the event and the response. However, actions can be taken to avoid such an outcome. These actions

  12. Effective Feature Preprocessing for Time Series Forecasting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhao, Junhua; Dong, Zhaoyang; Xu, Zhao

    2006-01-01

    Time series forecasting is an important area in data mining research. Feature preprocessing techniques have significant influence on forecasting accuracy, therefore are essential in a forecasting model. Although several feature preprocessing techniques have been applied in time series forecasting...... performance in time series forecasting. It is demonstrated in our experiment that, effective feature preprocessing can significantly enhance forecasting accuracy. This research can be a useful guidance for researchers on effectively selecting feature preprocessing techniques and integrating them with time...... series forecasting models....

  13. Forecasting with Option-Implied Information

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christoffersen, Peter; Jacobs, Kris; Chang, Bo Young

    2013-01-01

    This chapter surveys the methods available for extracting information from option prices that can be used in forecasting. We consider option-implied volatilities, skewness, kurtosis, and densities. More generally, we discuss how any forecasting object that is a twice differentiable function...... of the future realization of the underlying risky asset price can utilize option-implied information in a well-defined manner. Going beyond the univariate option-implied density, we also consider results on option-implied covariance, correlation and beta forecasting, as well as the use of option......-implied information in cross-sectional forecasting of equity returns. We discuss how option-implied information can be adjusted for risk premia to remove biases in forecasting regressions....

  14. Uncertainties in Forecasting Streamflow using Entropy Theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cui, H.; Singh, V. P.

    2017-12-01

    Streamflow forecasting is essential in river restoration, reservoir operation, power generation, irrigation, navigation, and water management. However, there is always uncertainties accompanied in forecast, which may affect the forecasting results and lead to large variations. Therefore, uncertainties must be considered and be assessed properly when forecasting streamflow for water management. The aim of our work is to quantify the uncertainties involved in forecasting streamflow and provide reliable streamflow forecast. Despite that streamflow time series are stochastic, they exhibit seasonal and periodic patterns. Therefore, streamflow forecasting entails modeling seasonality, periodicity, and its correlation structure, and assessing uncertainties. This study applies entropy theory to forecast streamflow and measure uncertainties during the forecasting process. To apply entropy theory for streamflow forecasting, spectral analysis is combined to time series analysis, as spectral analysis can be employed to characterize patterns of streamflow variation and identify the periodicity of streamflow. That is, it permits to extract significant information for understanding the streamflow process and prediction thereof. Application of entropy theory for streamflow forecasting involves determination of spectral density, determination of parameters, and extension of autocorrelation function. The uncertainties brought by precipitation input, forecasting model and forecasted results are measured separately using entropy. With information theory, how these uncertainties transported and aggregated during these processes will be described.

  15. How uncertain are day-ahead wind forecasts?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Grimit, E. [3TIER Environmental Forecast Group, Seattle, WA (United States)

    2006-07-01

    Recent advances in the combination of weather forecast ensembles with Bayesian statistical techniques have helped to address uncertainties in wind forecasting. Weather forecast ensembles are a collection of numerical weather predictions. The combination of several equally-skilled forecasts typically results in a consensus forecast with greater accuracy. The distribution of forecasts also provides an estimate of forecast inaccuracy. However, weather forecast ensembles tend to be under-dispersive, and not all forecast uncertainties can be taken into account. In order to address these issues, a multi-variate linear regression approach was used to correct the forecast bias for each ensemble member separately. Bayesian model averaging was used to provide a predictive probability density function to allow for multi-modal probability distributions. A test location in eastern Canada was used to demonstrate the approach. Results of the test showed that the method improved wind forecasts and generated reliable prediction intervals. Prediction intervals were much shorter than comparable intervals based on a single forecast or on historical observations alone. It was concluded that the approach will provide economic benefits to both wind energy developers and investors. refs., tabs., figs.

  16. Concerning the justiciability of demand forecasts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nierhaus, M.

    1977-01-01

    This subject plays at present in particular a role in the course of judicial examinations of immediately enforceable orders for the partial construction licences of nuclear power plants. The author distinguishes beween three kinds of forecast decisions: 1. Appraising forecast decisions with standards of judgment taken mainly from the fields of the art, culture, morality, religion are, according to the author, only legally verifyable to a limited extent. 2. With regard to forecast decisions not arguable, e.g. where the future behaviour of persons is concerned, the same should be applied basically. 3. In contrast to this, the following is applicable for programmatic, proceedingslike, or creative forecast decisions, in particular in economics: 'An administrative estimation privilege in a prognostic sense with the consequence that the court has to accept the forecast decision which lies within the forecast margins and which cannot be disproved, and that the court may not replace this forecast decision by its own probability judgment. In these cases, administration has the right to create its own forecast standards.' Judicial control in these cases was limited to certain substantive and procedural mistakes made by the administration in the course of forecast decision finding. (orig./HP) [de

  17. Concerning the justiciability of demand forecasts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nierhaus, M [Koeln Univ. (Germany, F.R.)

    1977-01-01

    This subject plays at present in particular a role in the course of judicial examinations of immediately enforceable orders for the partial construction licences of nuclear power plants. The author distinguishes beween three kinds of forecast decisions: 1. Appraising forecast decisions with standards of judgment taken mainly from the fields of the art, culture, morality, religion are, according to the author, only legally verifyable to a limited extent. 2. With regard to forecast decisions not arguable, e.g. where the future behaviour of persons is concerned, the same should be applied basically. 3. In contrast to this, the following is applicable for programmatic, proceedingslike, or creative forecast decisions, in particular in economics: 'An administrative estimation privilege in a prognostic sense with the consequence that the court has to accept the forecast decision which lies within the forecast margins and which cannot be disproved, and that the court may not replace this forecast decision by its own probability judgment. In these cases, administration has the right to create its own forecast standards.' Judicial control in these cases was limited to certain substantive and procedural mistakes made by the administration in the course of forecast decision finding.

  18. Spatial electric load forecasting

    CERN Document Server

    Willis, H Lee

    2002-01-01

    Spatial Electric Load Forecasting Consumer Demand for Power and ReliabilityCoincidence and Load BehaviorLoad Curve and End-Use ModelingWeather and Electric LoadWeather Design Criteria and Forecast NormalizationSpatial Load Growth BehaviorSpatial Forecast Accuracy and Error MeasuresTrending MethodsSimulation Method: Basic ConceptsA Detailed Look at the Simulation MethodBasics of Computerized SimulationAnalytical Building Blocks for Spatial SimulationAdvanced Elements of Computerized SimulationHybrid Trending-Simulation MethodsAdvanced

  19. Sensitivity analysis of numerical weather prediction radiative schemes to forecast direct solar radiation over Australia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mukkavilli, S. K.; Kay, M. J.; Taylor, R.; Prasad, A. A.; Troccoli, A.

    2014-12-01

    The Australian Solar Energy Forecasting System (ASEFS) project requires forecasting timeframes which range from nowcasting to long-term forecasts (minutes to two years). As concentrating solar power (CSP) plant operators are one of the key stakeholders in the national energy market, research and development enhancements for direct normal irradiance (DNI) forecasts is a major subtask. This project involves comparing different radiative scheme codes to improve day ahead DNI forecasts on the national supercomputing infrastructure running mesoscale simulations on NOAA's Weather Research & Forecast (WRF) model. ASEFS also requires aerosol data fusion for improving accurate representation of spatio-temporally variable atmospheric aerosols to reduce DNI bias error in clear sky conditions over southern Queensland & New South Wales where solar power is vulnerable to uncertainities from frequent aerosol radiative events such as bush fires and desert dust. Initial results from thirteen years of Bureau of Meteorology's (BOM) deseasonalised DNI and MODIS NASA-Terra aerosol optical depth (AOD) anomalies demonstrated strong negative correlations in north and southeast Australia along with strong variability in AOD (~0.03-0.05). Radiative transfer schemes, DNI and AOD anomaly correlations will be discussed for the population and transmission grid centric regions where current and planned CSP plants dispatch electricity to capture peak prices in the market. Aerosol and solar irradiance datasets include satellite and ground based assimilations from the national BOM, regional aerosol researchers and agencies. The presentation will provide an overview of this ASEFS project task on WRF and results to date. The overall goal of this ASEFS subtask is to develop a hybrid numerical weather prediction (NWP) and statistical/machine learning multi-model ensemble strategy that meets future operational requirements of CSP plant operators.

  20. Economic impact analysis of load forecasting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ranaweera, D.K.; Karady, G.G.; Farmer, R.G.

    1997-01-01

    Short term load forecasting is an essential function in electric power system operations and planning. Forecasts are needed for a variety of utility activities such as generation scheduling, scheduling of fuel purchases, maintenance scheduling and security analysis. Depending on power system characteristics, significant forecasting errors can lead to either excessively conservative scheduling or very marginal scheduling. Either can induce heavy economic penalties. This paper examines the economic impact of inaccurate load forecasts. Monte Carlo simulations were used to study the effect of different load forecasting accuracy. Investigations into the effect of improving the daily peak load forecasts, effect of different seasons of the year and effect of utilization factors are presented

  1. Storm Prediction Center Forecast Products

    Science.gov (United States)

    select the go button to submit request Local forecast by "City, St" or "ZIP" City, St Archive NOAA Weather Radio Research Non-op. Products Forecast Tools Svr. Tstm. Events SPC Publications SPC services. Forecast Products Current Weather Watches This is the current graphic showing any severe

  2. Communicating uncertainty in hydrological forecasts: mission impossible?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramos, Maria-Helena; Mathevet, Thibault; Thielen, Jutta; Pappenberger, Florian

    2010-05-01

    Cascading uncertainty in meteo-hydrological modelling chains for forecasting and integrated flood risk assessment is an essential step to improve the quality of hydrological forecasts. Although the best methodology to quantify the total predictive uncertainty in hydrology is still debated, there is a common agreement that one must avoid uncertainty misrepresentation and miscommunication, as well as misinterpretation of information by users. Several recent studies point out that uncertainty, when properly explained and defined, is no longer unwelcome among emergence response organizations, users of flood risk information and the general public. However, efficient communication of uncertain hydro-meteorological forecasts is far from being a resolved issue. This study focuses on the interpretation and communication of uncertain hydrological forecasts based on (uncertain) meteorological forecasts and (uncertain) rainfall-runoff modelling approaches to decision-makers such as operational hydrologists and water managers in charge of flood warning and scenario-based reservoir operation. An overview of the typical flow of uncertainties and risk-based decisions in hydrological forecasting systems is presented. The challenges related to the extraction of meaningful information from probabilistic forecasts and the test of its usefulness in assisting operational flood forecasting are illustrated with the help of two case-studies: 1) a study on the use and communication of probabilistic flood forecasting within the European Flood Alert System; 2) a case-study on the use of probabilistic forecasts by operational forecasters from the hydroelectricity company EDF in France. These examples show that attention must be paid to initiatives that promote or reinforce the active participation of expert forecasters in the forecasting chain. The practice of face-to-face forecast briefings, focusing on sharing how forecasters interpret, describe and perceive the model output forecasted

  3. Day ahead price forecasting of electricity markets by a mixed data model and hybrid forecast method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Amjady, Nima; Keynia, Farshid

    2008-01-01

    In a competitive electricity market, forecast of energy prices is a key information for the market participants. However, price signal usually has a complex behavior due to its nonlinearity, nonstationarity, and time variancy. In spite of all performed researches on this area in the recent years, there is still an essential need for more accurate and robust price forecast methods. In this paper, a combination of wavelet transform (WT) and a hybrid forecast method is proposed for this purpose. The hybrid method is composed of cascaded forecasters where each forecaster consists of a neural network (NN) and an evolutionary algorithms (EA). Both time domain and wavelet domain features are considered in a mixed data model for price forecast, in which the candidate input variables are refined by a feature selection technique. The adjustable parameters of the whole method are fine-tuned by a cross-validation technique. The proposed method is examined on PJM electricity market and compared with some of the most recent price forecast methods. (author)

  4. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) NCEP-Global Forecast System (GFS) Precipitation Forecast Product

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Global Forecast System (GFS) forecast precipitation data at 37.5km resolution is created at the NOAA Climate Prediction Center for the purpose of near real-time...

  5. Wind-Farm Forecasting Using the HARMONIE Weather Forecast Model and Bayes Model Averaging for Bias Removal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Brien, Enda; McKinstry, Alastair; Ralph, Adam

    2015-04-01

    Building on previous work presented at EGU 2013 (http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1876610213016068 ), more results are available now from a different wind-farm in complex terrain in southwest Ireland. The basic approach is to interpolate wind-speed forecasts from an operational weather forecast model (i.e., HARMONIE in the case of Ireland) to the precise location of each wind-turbine, and then use Bayes Model Averaging (BMA; with statistical information collected from a prior training-period of e.g., 25 days) to remove systematic biases. Bias-corrected wind-speed forecasts (and associated power-generation forecasts) are then provided twice daily (at 5am and 5pm) out to 30 hours, with each forecast validation fed back to BMA for future learning. 30-hr forecasts from the operational Met Éireann HARMONIE model at 2.5km resolution have been validated against turbine SCADA observations since Jan. 2014. An extra high-resolution (0.5km grid-spacing) HARMONIE configuration has been run since Nov. 2014 as an extra member of the forecast "ensemble". A new version of HARMONIE with extra filters designed to stabilize high-resolution configurations has been run since Jan. 2015. Measures of forecast skill and forecast errors will be provided, and the contributions made by the various physical and computational enhancements to HARMONIE will be quantified.

  6. Multi-step wind speed forecasting based on a hybrid forecasting architecture and an improved bat algorithm

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xiao, Liye; Qian, Feng; Shao, Wei

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: • Propose a hybrid architecture based on a modified bat algorithm for multi-step wind speed forecasting. • Improve the accuracy of multi-step wind speed forecasting. • Modify bat algorithm with CG to improve optimized performance. - Abstract: As one of the most promising sustainable energy sources, wind energy plays an important role in energy development because of its cleanliness without causing pollution. Generally, wind speed forecasting, which has an essential influence on wind power systems, is regarded as a challenging task. Analyses based on single-step wind speed forecasting have been widely used, but their results are insufficient in ensuring the reliability and controllability of wind power systems. In this paper, a new forecasting architecture based on decomposing algorithms and modified neural networks is successfully developed for multi-step wind speed forecasting. Four different hybrid models are contained in this architecture, and to further improve the forecasting performance, a modified bat algorithm (BA) with the conjugate gradient (CG) method is developed to optimize the initial weights between layers and thresholds of the hidden layer of neural networks. To investigate the forecasting abilities of the four models, the wind speed data collected from four different wind power stations in Penglai, China, were used as a case study. The numerical experiments showed that the hybrid model including the singular spectrum analysis and general regression neural network with CG-BA (SSA-CG-BA-GRNN) achieved the most accurate forecasting results in one-step to three-step wind speed forecasting.

  7. Effects of change in primary forest cover on armadillo (Cingulata, Mammalia burrow use in the Central Amazon Efectos del cambio en la cobertura de bosque primario sobre el uso de las madrigueras por los armadillos (Cingulata, Mammalia en la Amazonia Central

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    María Clara Arteaga

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Transformation of primary forest to other vegetation types alters the availability and distribution of resources, and thus affects their use by species that inhabit the forest. Although armadillos are important earthmover mammals in the Amazon forest, and their burrows play an important physical and ecological role in the ecosystem, the impact of loss of primary forest cover on these organisms has been poorly understood. In order to evaluate the effects of change in the primary forest cover on burrow use by armadillos, we performed 2 censuses in 33 plots within 12 sites of different vegetation cover characteristics, and recorded burrow density and current use. A total of 109 armadillo burrows were found; the sites with higher percentages of primary forest cover showed a larger number of active burrows, although burrow density and the probability of establishing new burrows remained unaffected by this variable. Our results show that areas with higher quantities of primary forest habitat show more intense use by armadillos, probably due to the permanence time of individuals. These findings suggest that the viability of armadillo populations, as well as the role that these animals play within the ecosystem, may be affected in disturbed areas.La transformación del bosque primario a otro tipo de vegetación cambia la disponibilidad y distribución de los recursos, afectando su uso por especies que habitan el bosque. Los armadillos son el principal grupo de mamíferos escavadores del Amazonas y sus madrigueras cumplen un papel físico y ecológico en el ecosistema. Sin embargo, no se conoce el impacto de la pérdida del bosque sobre estos organismos. Con el fin de evaluar el efecto de los cambios en la cobertura de bosque primario sobre el uso de sus madrigueras, realizamos 2 censos en 33 parcelas dentro de 12 localidades con diferentes coberturas vegetales y reportamos la densidad y el estado de uso de las madrigueras. Encontramos 109 madrigueras y

  8. FORECASTING MODELS IN MANAGEMENT

    OpenAIRE

    Sindelar, Jiri

    2008-01-01

    This article deals with the problems of forecasting models. First part of the article is dedicated to definition of the relevant areas (vertical and horizontal pillar of definition) and then the forecasting model itself is defined; as article presents theoretical background for further primary research, this definition is crucial. Finally the position of forecasting models within the management system is identified. The paper is a part of the outputs of FEM CULS grant no. 1312/11/3121.

  9. Empirical seasonal forecasts of the NAO

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanchezgomez, E.; Ortizbevia, M.

    2003-04-01

    We present here seasonal forecasts of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) issued from ocean predictors with an empirical procedure. The Singular Values Decomposition (SVD) of the cross-correlation matrix between predictor and predictand fields at the lag used for the forecast lead is at the core of the empirical model. The main predictor field are sea surface temperature anomalies, although sea ice cover anomalies are also used. Forecasts are issued in probabilistic form. The model is an improvement over a previous version (1), where Sea Level Pressure Anomalies were first forecast, and the NAO Index built from this forecast field. Both correlation skill between forecast and observed field, and number of forecasts that hit the correct NAO sign, are used to assess the forecast performance , usually above those values found in the case of forecasts issued assuming persistence. For certain seasons and/or leads, values of the skill are above the .7 usefulness treshold. References (1) SanchezGomez, E. and Ortiz Bevia M., 2002, Estimacion de la evolucion pluviometrica de la Espana Seca atendiendo a diversos pronosticos empiricos de la NAO, in 'El Agua y el Clima', Publicaciones de la AEC, Serie A, N 3, pp 63-73, Palma de Mallorca, Spain

  10. Global Energy Forecasting Competition 2012

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hong, Tao; Pinson, Pierre; Fan, Shu

    2014-01-01

    The Global Energy Forecasting Competition (GEFCom2012) attracted hundreds of participants worldwide, who contributed many novel ideas to the energy forecasting field. This paper introduces both tracks of GEFCom2012, hierarchical load forecasting and wind power forecasting, with details...... on the aspects of the problem, the data, and a summary of the methods used by selected top entries. We also discuss the lessons learned from this competition from the organizers’ perspective. The complete data set, including the solution data, is published along with this paper, in an effort to establish...

  11. The rhinoceros among Serpents: Comparative anatomy and experimental biophysics of Calabar burrowing python (Calabaria reinhardtii) skin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Dawei; Young, Bruce A

    2018-01-01

    The Calabar burrowing python (Calabaria reinhardtii) has a unique combination of marked thickness of the integumentary layers, a highly organized lamellate arrangement of the dermal collagen bundles, and a reduction in the size of the interscale hinge region of the integument. Biomechanical testing demonstrates that the skin of C. reinhardtii is more resistant to penetration than the skin of other snakes. The laminar arrangement of the collagen bundles provides for penetrative resistance, even while maintaining the flexibility characteristic of snake skin. Considering the life history of this species, it is hypothesized that the specialized integument of C. reinhardtii is a passive defensive mechanism against penetrative bites from maternal rodents and predators. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  12. Burrower bugs (Heteroptera: Cydnidae) in peanut: seasonal species abundance, tillage effects, grade reduction effects, insecticide efficacy, and management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chapin, Jay W; Thomas, James S

    2003-08-01

    Pitfall traps placed in South Carolina peanut, Arachis hypogaea (L.), fields collected three species of burrower bugs (Cydnidae): Cyrtomenus ciliatus (Palisot de Beauvois), Sehirus cinctus cinctus (Palisot de Beauvois), and Pangaeus bilineatus (Say). Cyrtomenus ciliatus was rarely collected. Sehirus cinctus produced a nymphal cohort in peanut during May and June, probably because of abundant henbit seeds, Lamium amplexicaule L., in strip-till production systems. No S. cinctus were present during peanut pod formation. Pangaeus bilineatus was the most abundant species collected and the only species associated with peanut kernel feeding injury. Overwintering P. bilineatus adults were present in a conservation tillage peanut field before planting and two to three subsequent generations were observed. Few nymphs were collected until the R6 (full seed) growth stage. Tillage and choice of cover crop affected P. bilineatus populations. Peanuts strip-tilled into corn or wheat residue had greater P. bilineatus populations and kernel-feeding than conventional tillage or strip-tillage into rye residue. Fall tillage before planting a wheat cover crop also reduced burrower bug feeding on peanut. At-pegging (early July) granular chlorpyrifos treatments were most consistent in suppressing kernel feeding. Kernels fed on by P. bilineatus were on average 10% lighter than unfed on kernels. Pangaeus bilineatus feeding reduced peanut grade by reducing individual kernel weight, and increasing the percentage damaged kernels. Each 10% increase in kernels fed on by P. bilineatus was associated with a 1.7% decrease in total sound mature kernels, and kernel feeding levels above 30% increase the risk of damaged kernel grade penalties.

  13. On Long Memory Origins and Forecast Horizons

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vera-Valdés, J. Eduardo

    Most long memory forecasting studies assume that the memory is generated by the fractional difference operator. We argue that the most cited theoretical arguments for the presence of long memory do not imply the fractional difference operator, and assess the performance of the autoregressive...... fractionally integrated moving average (ARFIMA) model when forecasting series with long memory generated by nonfractional processes. We find that high-order autoregressive (AR) models produce similar or superior forecast performance than ARFIMA models at short horizons. Nonetheless, as the forecast horizon...... increases, the ARFIMA models tend to dominate in forecast performance. Hence, ARFIMA models are well suited for forecasts of long memory processes regardless of the long memory generating mechanism, particularly for medium and long forecast horizons. Additionally, we analyse the forecasting performance...

  14. Energy forecasts, perspectives and methods

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Svensson, J E; Mogren, A

    1984-01-01

    The authors have analyzed different methods for long term energy prognoses, in particular energy consumption forecasts. Energy supply and price prognoses are also treated, but in a less detailed manner. After defining and discussing the various methods/models used in forecasts, a generalized discussion of the influence on the prognoses from the perspectives (background factors, world view, norms, ideology) of the prognosis makers is given. Some basic formal demands that should be asked from any rational forecast are formulated and discussed. The authors conclude that different forecasting methodologies are supplementing each other. There is no best method, forecasts should be accepted as views of the future from differing perspectives. The primary prognostic problem is to show the possible futures, selecting the wanted future is a question of political process.

  15. Baseline and Target Values for PV Forecasts: Toward Improved Solar Power Forecasting: Preprint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhang, Jie; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Lu, Siyuan; Hamann, Hendrik F.; Lehman, Brad; Simmons, Joseph; Campos, Edwin; Banunarayanan, Venkat

    2015-08-05

    Accurate solar power forecasting allows utilities to get the most out of the solar resources on their systems. To truly measure the improvements that any new solar forecasting methods can provide, it is important to first develop (or determine) baseline and target solar forecasting at different spatial and temporal scales. This paper aims to develop baseline and target values for solar forecasting metrics. These were informed by close collaboration with utility and independent system operator partners. The baseline values are established based on state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models and persistence models. The target values are determined based on the reduction in the amount of reserves that must be held to accommodate the uncertainty of solar power output. forecasting metrics. These were informed by close collaboration with utility and independent system operator partners. The baseline values are established based on state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models and persistence models. The target values are determined based on the reduction in the amount of reserves that must be held to accommodate the uncertainty of solar power output.

  16. Are demand forecasting techniques applicable to libraries?

    OpenAIRE

    Sridhar, M. S.

    1984-01-01

    Examines the nature and limitations of demand forecasting, discuses plausible methods of forecasting demand for information, suggests some useful hints for demand forecasting and concludes by emphasizing unified approach to demand forecasting.

  17. Ecological forecasts: An emerging imperative

    Science.gov (United States)

    James S. Clark; Steven R. Carpenter; Mary Barber; Scott Collins; Andy Dobson; Jonathan A. Foley; David M. Lodge; Mercedes Pascual; Roger Pielke; William Pizer; Cathy Pringle; Walter V. Reid; Kenneth A. Rose; Osvaldo Sala; William H. Schlesinger; Diana H. Wall; David Wear

    2001-01-01

    Planning and decision-making can be improved by access to reliable forecasts of ecosystem state, ecosystem services, and natural capital. Availability of new data sets, together with progress in computation and statistics, will increase our ability to forecast ecosystem change. An agenda that would lead toward a capacity to produce, evaluate, and communicate forecasts...

  18. Probabilistic energy forecasting: Global Energy Forecasting Competition 2014 and beyond

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hong, Tao; Pinson, Pierre; Fan, Shu

    2016-01-01

    The energy industry has been going through a significant modernization process over the last decade. Its infrastructure is being upgraded rapidly. The supply, demand and prices are becoming more volatile and less predictable than ever before. Even its business model is being challenged fundamenta......The energy industry has been going through a significant modernization process over the last decade. Its infrastructure is being upgraded rapidly. The supply, demand and prices are becoming more volatile and less predictable than ever before. Even its business model is being challenged...... fundamentally. In this competitive and dynamic environment, many decision-making processes rely on probabilistic forecasts to quantify the uncertain future. Although most of the papers in the energy forecasting literature focus on point or singlevalued forecasts, the research interest in probabilistic energy...

  19. ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index for water vapor transport: A forecast tool for atmospheric rivers and extreme precipitation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lavers, David A.; Pappenberger, Florian; Richardson, David S.; Zsoter, Ervin

    2016-11-01

    In winter, heavy precipitation and floods along the west coasts of midlatitude continents are largely caused by intense water vapor transport (integrated vapor transport (IVT)) within the atmospheric river of extratropical cyclones. This study builds on previous findings that showed that forecasts of IVT have higher predictability than precipitation, by applying and evaluating the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) for IVT in ensemble forecasts during three winters across Europe. We show that the IVT EFI is more able (than the precipitation EFI) to capture extreme precipitation in forecast week 2 during forecasts initialized in a positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) phase; conversely, the precipitation EFI is better during the negative NAO phase and at shorter leads. An IVT EFI example for storm Desmond in December 2015 highlights its potential to identify upcoming hydrometeorological extremes, which may prove useful to the user and forecasting communities.

  20. An Assessment of the Subseasonal Forecast Performance in the Extended Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sinsky, E.; Zhu, Y.; Li, W.; Guan, H.; Melhauser, C.

    2017-12-01

    Optimal forecast quality is crucial for the preservation of life and property. Improving monthly forecast performance over both the tropics and extra-tropics requires attention to various physical aspects such as the representation of the underlying SST, model physics and the representation of the model physics uncertainty for an ensemble forecast system. This work focuses on the impact of stochastic physics, SST and the convection scheme on forecast performance for the sub-seasonal scale over the tropics and extra-tropics with emphasis on the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). A 2-year period is evaluated using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS). Three experiments with different configurations than the operational GEFS were performed to illustrate the impact of the stochastic physics, SST and convection scheme. These experiments are compared against a control experiment (CTL) which consists of the operational GEFS but its integration is extended from 16 to 35 days. The three configurations are: 1) SPs, which uses a Stochastically Perturbed Physics Tendencies (SPPT), Stochastic Perturbed Humidity (SHUM) and Stochastic Kinetic Energy Backscatter (SKEB); 2) SPs+SST_bc, which uses a combination of SPs and a bias-corrected forecast SST from the NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2); and 3) SPs+SST_bc+SA_CV, which combines SPs, a bias-corrected forecast SST and a scale aware convection scheme. When comparing to the CTL experiment, SPs shows substantial improvement. The MJO skill has improved by about 4 lead days during the 2-year period. Improvement is also seen over the extra-tropics due to the updated stochastic physics, where there is a 3.1% and a 4.2% improvement during weeks 3 and 4 over the northern hemisphere and southern hemisphere, respectively. Improvement is also seen when the bias-corrected CFSv2 SST is combined with SPs. Additionally, forecast performance enhances when the scale aware

  1. Device for forecasting reactor power-up routes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fukuzaki, Takaharu.

    1980-01-01

    Purpose: To improve the reliability and forecasting accuracy for a device forecasting the change of the state on line in BWR type reactors. Constitution: The present state in a nuclear reactor is estimated in a present state judging section based on measuring signals for thermal power, core flow rate, control rod density and the like from the nuclear reactor, and the estimated results are accumulated in an operation result collecting section. While on the other hand, a forecasting section forecasts the future state in the reactor based on the signals from the forecasting condition setting section. The actual result values from the collecting section and the forecasting results are compared to each other. If they are not equal, new setting signals are outputted from the setting section to perform the forecasting again. These procedures are repeated till the difference between the forecast results and the actual result values is minimized, by which accurate forecasting for the state of the reactor is made possible. (Furukawa, Y.)

  2. Development and validation of a regional coupled forecasting system for S2S forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, R.; Subramanian, A. C.; Hoteit, I.; Miller, A. J.; Ralph, M.; Cornuelle, B. D.

    2017-12-01

    Accurate and efficient forecasting of oceanic and atmospheric circulation is essential for a wide variety of high-impact societal needs, including: weather extremes; environmental protection and coastal management; management of fisheries, marine conservation; water resources; and renewable energy. Effective forecasting relies on high model fidelity and accurate initialization of the models with observed state of the ocean-atmosphere-land coupled system. A regional coupled ocean-atmosphere model with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and the MITGCM ocean model coupled using the ESMF (Earth System Modeling Framework) coupling framework is developed to resolve mesoscale air-sea feedbacks. The regional coupled model allows oceanic mixed layer heat and momentum to interact with the atmospheric boundary layer dynamics at the mesoscale and submesoscale spatiotemporal regimes, thus leading to feedbacks which are otherwise not resolved in coarse resolution global coupled forecasting systems or regional uncoupled forecasting systems. The model is tested in two scenarios in the mesoscale eddy rich Red Sea and Western Indian Ocean region as well as mesoscale eddies and fronts of the California Current System. Recent studies show evidence for air-sea interactions involving the oceanic mesoscale in these two regions which can enhance predictability on sub seasonal timescale. We will present results from this newly developed regional coupled ocean-atmosphere model for forecasts over the Red Sea region as well as the California Current region. The forecasts will be validated against insitu observations in the region as well as reanalysis fields.

  3. Next-generation probabilistic seismicity forecasting

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hiemer, S.

    2014-07-01

    The development of probabilistic seismicity forecasts is one of the most important tasks of seismologists at present time. Such forecasts form the basis of probabilistic seismic hazard assessment, a widely used approach to generate ground motion exceedance maps. These hazard maps guide the development of building codes, and in the absence of the ability to deterministically predict earthquakes, good building and infrastructure planning is key to prevent catastrophes. Probabilistic seismicity forecasts are models that specify the occurrence rate of earthquakes as a function of space, time and magnitude. The models presented in this thesis are time-invariant mainshock occurrence models. Accordingly, the reliable estimation of the spatial and size distribution of seismicity are of crucial importance when constructing such probabilistic forecasts. Thereby we focus on data-driven approaches to infer these distributions, circumventing the need for arbitrarily chosen external parameters and subjective expert decisions. Kernel estimation has been shown to appropriately transform discrete earthquake locations into spatially continuous probability distributions. However, we show that neglecting the information from fault networks constitutes a considerable shortcoming and thus limits the skill of these current seismicity models. We present a novel earthquake rate forecast that applies the kernel-smoothing method to both past earthquake locations and slip rates on mapped crustal faults applied to Californian and European data. Our model is independent from biases caused by commonly used non-objective seismic zonations, which impose artificial borders of activity that are not expected in nature. Studying the spatial variability of the seismicity size distribution is of great importance. The b-value of the well-established empirical Gutenberg-Richter model forecasts the rates of hazard-relevant large earthquakes based on the observed rates of abundant small events. We propose a

  4. Next-generation probabilistic seismicity forecasting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hiemer, S.

    2014-01-01

    The development of probabilistic seismicity forecasts is one of the most important tasks of seismologists at present time. Such forecasts form the basis of probabilistic seismic hazard assessment, a widely used approach to generate ground motion exceedance maps. These hazard maps guide the development of building codes, and in the absence of the ability to deterministically predict earthquakes, good building and infrastructure planning is key to prevent catastrophes. Probabilistic seismicity forecasts are models that specify the occurrence rate of earthquakes as a function of space, time and magnitude. The models presented in this thesis are time-invariant mainshock occurrence models. Accordingly, the reliable estimation of the spatial and size distribution of seismicity are of crucial importance when constructing such probabilistic forecasts. Thereby we focus on data-driven approaches to infer these distributions, circumventing the need for arbitrarily chosen external parameters and subjective expert decisions. Kernel estimation has been shown to appropriately transform discrete earthquake locations into spatially continuous probability distributions. However, we show that neglecting the information from fault networks constitutes a considerable shortcoming and thus limits the skill of these current seismicity models. We present a novel earthquake rate forecast that applies the kernel-smoothing method to both past earthquake locations and slip rates on mapped crustal faults applied to Californian and European data. Our model is independent from biases caused by commonly used non-objective seismic zonations, which impose artificial borders of activity that are not expected in nature. Studying the spatial variability of the seismicity size distribution is of great importance. The b-value of the well-established empirical Gutenberg-Richter model forecasts the rates of hazard-relevant large earthquakes based on the observed rates of abundant small events. We propose a

  5. On the reliability of seasonal climate forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weisheimer, A.; Palmer, T. N.

    2014-01-01

    Seasonal climate forecasts are being used increasingly across a range of application sectors. A recent UK governmental report asked: how good are seasonal forecasts on a scale of 1–5 (where 5 is very good), and how good can we expect them to be in 30 years time? Seasonal forecasts are made from ensembles of integrations of numerical models of climate. We argue that ‘goodness’ should be assessed first and foremost in terms of the probabilistic reliability of these ensemble-based forecasts; reliable inputs are essential for any forecast-based decision-making. We propose that a ‘5’ should be reserved for systems that are not only reliable overall, but where, in particular, small ensemble spread is a reliable indicator of low ensemble forecast error. We study the reliability of regional temperature and precipitation forecasts of the current operational seasonal forecast system of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, universally regarded as one of the world-leading operational institutes producing seasonal climate forecasts. A wide range of ‘goodness’ rankings, depending on region and variable (with summer forecasts of rainfall over Northern Europe performing exceptionally poorly) is found. Finally, we discuss the prospects of reaching ‘5’ across all regions and variables in 30 years time. PMID:24789559

  6. Solid low-level waste forecasting guide

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Templeton, K.J.; Dirks, L.L.

    1995-03-01

    Guidance for forecasting solid low-level waste (LLW) on a site-wide basis is described in this document. Forecasting is defined as an approach for collecting information about future waste receipts. The forecasting approach discussed in this document is based solely on hanford's experience within the last six years. Hanford's forecasting technique is not a statistical forecast based upon past receipts. Due to waste generator mission changes, startup of new facilities, and waste generator uncertainties, statistical methods have proven to be inadequate for the site. It is recommended that an approach similar to Hanford's annual forecasting strategy be implemented at each US Department of Energy (DOE) installation to ensure that forecast data are collected in a consistent manner across the DOE complex. Hanford's forecasting strategy consists of a forecast cycle that can take 12 to 30 months to complete. The duration of the cycle depends on the number of LLW generators and staff experience; however, the duration has been reduced with each new cycle. Several uncertainties are associated with collecting data about future waste receipts. Volume, shipping schedule, and characterization data are often reported as estimates with some level of uncertainty. At Hanford, several methods have been implemented to capture the level of uncertainty. Collection of a maximum and minimum volume range has been implemented as well as questionnaires to assess the relative certainty in the requested data

  7. A Wind Forecasting System for Energy Application

    Science.gov (United States)

    Courtney, Jennifer; Lynch, Peter; Sweeney, Conor

    2010-05-01

    Accurate forecasting of available energy is crucial for the efficient management and use of wind power in the national power grid. With energy output critically dependent upon wind strength there is a need to reduce the errors associated wind forecasting. The objective of this research is to get the best possible wind forecasts for the wind energy industry. To achieve this goal, three methods are being applied. First, a mesoscale numerical weather prediction (NWP) model called WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) is being used to predict wind values over Ireland. Currently, a gird resolution of 10km is used and higher model resolutions are being evaluated to establish whether they are economically viable given the forecast skill improvement they produce. Second, the WRF model is being used in conjunction with ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) ensemble forecasts to produce a probabilistic weather forecasting product. Due to the chaotic nature of the atmosphere, a single, deterministic weather forecast can only have limited skill. The ECMWF ensemble methods produce an ensemble of 51 global forecasts, twice a day, by perturbing initial conditions of a 'control' forecast which is the best estimate of the initial state of the atmosphere. This method provides an indication of the reliability of the forecast and a quantitative basis for probabilistic forecasting. The limitation of ensemble forecasting lies in the fact that the perturbed model runs behave differently under different weather patterns and each model run is equally likely to be closest to the observed weather situation. Models have biases, and involve assumptions about physical processes and forcing factors such as underlying topography. Third, Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) is being applied to the output from the ensemble forecasts in order to statistically post-process the results and achieve a better wind forecasting system. BMA is a promising technique that will offer calibrated

  8. Urban runoff forecasting with ensemble weather predictions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Jonas Wied; Courdent, Vianney Augustin Thomas; Vezzaro, Luca

    This research shows how ensemble weather forecasts can be used to generate urban runoff forecasts up to 53 hours into the future. The results highlight systematic differences between ensemble members that needs to be accounted for when these forecasts are used in practice.......This research shows how ensemble weather forecasts can be used to generate urban runoff forecasts up to 53 hours into the future. The results highlight systematic differences between ensemble members that needs to be accounted for when these forecasts are used in practice....

  9. Evaluating the Performance of Wavelet-based Data-driven Models for Multistep-ahead Flood Forecasting in an Urbanized Watershed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kasaee Roodsari, B.; Chandler, D. G.

    2015-12-01

    A real-time flood forecast system is presented to provide emergency management authorities sufficient lead time to execute plans for evacuation and asset protection in urban watersheds. This study investigates the performance of two hybrid models for real-time flood forecasting at different subcatchments of Ley Creek watershed, a heavily urbanized watershed in the vicinity of Syracuse, New York. Hybrid models include Wavelet-Based Artificial Neural Network (WANN) and Wavelet-Based Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (WANFIS). Both models are developed on the basis of real time stream network sensing. The wavelet approach is applied to decompose the collected water depth timeseries to Approximation and Detail components. The Approximation component is then used as an input to ANN and ANFIS models to forecast water level at lead times of 1 to 10 hours. The performance of WANN and WANFIS models are compared to ANN and ANFIS models for different lead times. Initial results demonstrated greater predictive power of hybrid models.

  10. Implementation and test of a coastal forecasting system for wind waves in the Mediterranean Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Inghilesi, R.; Catini, F.; Orasi, A.; Corsini, S.

    2010-09-01

    A coastal forecasting system has been implemented in order to provide a coverage of the whole Mediterranean Sea and of several enclosed coastal areas as well. The problem is to achieve a good definition of the small scale coastal processes which affect the propagation of waves toward the shores while retaining the possibility of selecting any of the possible coastal areas in the whole Mediterranean Sea. The system is built on a very high resolution parallel implementation of the WAM and SWAN models, one-way chain-nested in key areas. The system will shortly be part of the ISPRA SIMM forecasting system which has been operative since 2001. The SIMM sistem makes available the high resolution wind fields (0.1/0.1 deg) used in the coastal system. The coastal system is being tested on several Italian coastal areas (Ligurian Sea, Lower Tyrrenian Sea, Sicily Channel, Lower Adriatic Sea) in order to optimise the numerics of the coastal processes and to verify the results in shallow waters and complex bathymetries. The results of the comparison between hindcast and buoy data in very shallow (14m depth) and deep sea (150m depth) will be shown for several episodes in the upper Tyrrenian Sea.

  11. Scent gland constituents of the Middle American burrowing python, Loxocemus bicolor (Serpentes: Loxocemidae).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schulze, Thies; Weldon, Paul J; Schulz, Stefan

    2017-07-14

    Analysis by gas chromatography/mass spectrometry of the scent gland secretions of male and female Middle American burrowing pythons (Loxocemus bicolor) revealed the presence of over 300 components including cholesterol, fatty acids, glyceryl monoalkyl ethers, and alcohols. The fatty acids, over 100 of which were identified, constitute most of the compounds in the secretions and show the greatest structural diversity. They include saturated and unsaturated, unbranched and mono-, di-, and trimethyl-branched compounds ranging in carbon-chain length from 13 to 24. The glyceryl monoethers possess saturated or unsaturated, straight or methyl-branched alkyl chains ranging in carbon-chain length from 13 to 24. Alcohols, which have not previously been reported from the scent glands, possess straight, chiefly saturated carbon chains ranging in length from 13 to 24. Sex or individual differences in secretion composition were not observed. Compounds in the scent gland secretions of L. bicolor may deter offending arthropods, such as ants.

  12. Effects of radiotransmitter necklaces on behaviors of adult male western burrowing owls

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chipman, E.D.; McIntyre, N.E.; Ray, J.D.; Wallace, M.C.; Boal, C.W.

    2007-01-01

    We studied the behavioral effects of necklace-style radiotransmitters on breeding male western burrowing owls (Athene cunicularia hypugaea) in 2 areas of northwestern Texas, USA, in 2004 and 2005. We tested the hypothesis that transmittered owls would spend time interacting with their necklaces and as a result spend less time in vigilance and resting activities than would nontransmittered owls. Nontransmittered owls (n = 6) spent significantly more time being vigilant (P = 0.007) than did transmittered owls (n = 3) in 2004, who spent significant amounts of time interacting with their necklaces. In 2005, behaviors of transmittered owls (n = 8) were significantly different (P < 0.001) from control individuals (n = 4), but behaviors did not vary consistently by treatment period (prenecklace vs. necklace vs. postnecklace periods). Behavioral activity budgets varied considerably among individuals. Although the owls spent a significant amount of time interacting with their necklaces, they appeared to habituate to the presence of the transmitters within a relatively short period (<1 week), and necklaces did not affect survivorship or fitness in the short-term.

  13. Factors Reducing Efficiency of the Operational Oceanographic Forecast Systems in the Arctic Basin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V.N. Belokopytov

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Reliability of the forecasted fields in the Arctic Basin is limited by a number of problems resulting, in the first turn, from lack of operational information. Due to the ice cover, satellite data on the sea level and the sea surface temperature is either completely not available or partially accessible in summer. The amount of CTD measuring systems functioning in the operational mode (3 – 5 probes is not sufficient. The number of the temperature-profiling buoys the probing depth of which is limited to 60 m, is not enough for the Arctic as well. Lack of spatial resolution of the available altimetry information (14 km, as compared to the Rossby radius in the Arctic Ocean (2 – 12 km, requires a thorough analysis of the forecasting system practical goals. The basic factor enhancing reliability of the oceanographic forecast consists in the fact that the key oceanographic regions, namely the eastern parts of the Norwegian and Greenland seas, the Barents Sea and the Chukchi Sea including the Bering Strait (where the Atlantic and Pacific waters flow in and transform, and the halocline structure is formed are partially or completely free of ice and significantly better provided with operational information.

  14. Potential predictability and forecast skill in ensemble climate forecast: a skill-persistence rule

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jin, Yishuai; Rong, Xinyao; Liu, Zhengyu

    2017-12-01

    This study investigates the factors relationship between the forecast skills for the real world (actual skill) and perfect model (perfect skill) in ensemble climate model forecast with a series of fully coupled general circulation model forecast experiments. It is found that the actual skill for sea surface temperature (SST) in seasonal forecast is substantially higher than the perfect skill on a large part of the tropical oceans, especially the tropical Indian Ocean and the central-eastern Pacific Ocean. The higher actual skill is found to be related to the higher observational SST persistence, suggesting a skill-persistence rule: a higher SST persistence in the real world than in the model could overwhelm the model bias to produce a higher forecast skill for the real world than for the perfect model. The relation between forecast skill and persistence is further proved using a first-order autoregressive model (AR1) analytically for theoretical solutions and numerically for analogue experiments. The AR1 model study shows that the skill-persistence rule is strictly valid in the case of infinite ensemble size, but could be distorted by sampling errors and non-AR1 processes. This study suggests that the so called "perfect skill" is model dependent and cannot serve as an accurate estimate of the true upper limit of real world prediction skill, unless the model can capture at least the persistence property of the observation.

  15. Visualization of ocean forecast in BYTHOS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhuk, E.; Zodiatis, G.; Nikolaidis, A.; Stylianou, S.; Karaolia, A.

    2016-08-01

    The Cyprus Oceanography Center has been constantly searching for new ideas for developing and implementing innovative methods and new developments concerning the use of Information Systems in Oceanography, to suit both the Center's monitoring and forecasting products. Within the frame of this scope two major online managing and visualizing data systems have been developed and utilized, those of CYCOFOS and BYTHOS. The Cyprus Coastal Ocean Forecasting and Observing System - CYCOFOS provides a variety of operational predictions such as ultra high, high and medium resolution ocean forecasts in the Levantine Basin, offshore and coastal sea state forecasts in the Mediterranean and Black Sea, tide forecasting in the Mediterranean, ocean remote sensing in the Eastern Mediterranean and coastal and offshore monitoring. As a rich internet application, BYTHOS enables scientists to search, visualize and download oceanographic data online and in real time. The recent improving of BYTHOS system is the extension with access and visualization of CYCOFOS data and overlay forecast fields and observing data. The CYCOFOS data are stored at OPENDAP Server in netCDF format. To search, process and visualize it the php and python scripts were developed. Data visualization is achieved through Mapserver. The BYTHOS forecast access interface allows to search necessary forecasting field by recognizing type, parameter, region, level and time. Also it provides opportunity to overlay different forecast and observing data that can be used for complex analyze of sea basin aspects.

  16. Forecasting winds over nuclear power plants statistics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marais, Ch.

    1997-01-01

    In the event of an accident at nuclear power plant, it is essential to forecast the wind velocity at the level where the efflux occurs (about 100 m). At present meteorologists refine the wind forecast from the coarse grid of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. The purpose of this study is to improve the forecasts by developing a statistical adaptation method which corrects the NWP forecasts by using statistical comparisons between wind forecasts and observations. The Multiple Linear Regression method is used here to forecast the 100 m wind at 12 and 24 hours range for three Electricite de France (EDF) sites. It turns out that this approach gives better forecasts than the NWP model alone and is worthy of operational use. (author)

  17. Forecasting Interest Rates Using Geostatistical Techniques

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giuseppe Arbia

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Geostatistical spatial models are widely used in many applied fields to forecast data observed on continuous three-dimensional surfaces. We propose to extend their use to finance and, in particular, to forecasting yield curves. We present the results of an empirical application where we apply the proposed method to forecast Euro Zero Rates (2003–2014 using the Ordinary Kriging method based on the anisotropic variogram. Furthermore, a comparison with other recent methods for forecasting yield curves is proposed. The results show that the model is characterized by good levels of predictions’ accuracy and it is competitive with the other forecasting models considered.

  18. Forecasting risks of natural gas consumption in Slovenia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Potocnik, Primoz; Govekar, Edvard; Grabec, Igor [Laboratory of Synergetics, Ljubljana (Slovenia). Faculty of Mechanical Engineering; Thaler, Marko; Poredos, Alojz [Laboratory for Refrigeration, Ljubljana (Slovenia). Faculty of Mechanical Engineering

    2007-08-15

    Efficient operation of modern energy distribution systems often requires forecasting future energy demand. This paper proposes a strategy to estimate forecasting risk. The objective of the proposed method is to improve knowledge about expected forecasting risk and to estimate the expected cash flow in advance, based on the risk model. The strategy combines an energy demand forecasting model, an economic incentive model and a risk model. Basic guidelines are given for the construction of a forecasting model that combines past energy consumption data, weather data and weather forecast. The forecasting model is required to estimate expected forecasting errors that are the basis for forecasting risk estimation. The risk estimation strategy also requires an economic incentive model that describes the influence of forecasting accuracy on the energy distribution systems' cash flow. The economic model defines the critical forecasting error levels that most strongly influence cash flow. Based on the forecasting model and the economic model, the development of a risk model is proposed. The risk model is associated with critical forecasting error levels in the context of various influential parameters such as seasonal data, month, day of the week and temperature. The risk model is applicable to estimating the daily forecasting risk based on the influential parameters. The proposed approach is illustrated by a case study of a Slovenian natural gas distribution company. (author)

  19. Forecasting risks of natural gas consumption in Slovenia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Potocnik, Primoz; Thaler, Marko; Govekar, Edvard; Grabec, Igor; Poredos, Alojz

    2007-01-01

    Efficient operation of modern energy distribution systems often requires forecasting future energy demand. This paper proposes a strategy to estimate forecasting risk. The objective of the proposed method is to improve knowledge about expected forecasting risk and to estimate the expected cash flow in advance, based on the risk model. The strategy combines an energy demand forecasting model, an economic incentive model and a risk model. Basic guidelines are given for the construction of a forecasting model that combines past energy consumption data, weather data and weather forecast. The forecasting model is required to estimate expected forecasting errors that are the basis for forecasting risk estimation. The risk estimation strategy also requires an economic incentive model that describes the influence of forecasting accuracy on the energy distribution systems' cash flow. The economic model defines the critical forecasting error levels that most strongly influence cash flow. Based on the forecasting model and the economic model, the development of a risk model is proposed. The risk model is associated with critical forecasting error levels in the context of various influential parameters such as seasonal data, month, day of the week and temperature. The risk model is applicable to estimating the daily forecasting risk based on the influential parameters. The proposed approach is illustrated by a case study of a Slovenian natural gas distribution company

  20. The GOCF/AWAP system - forecasting temperature extremes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fawcett, Robert; Hume, Timothy

    2010-01-01

    Gridded hourly temperature forecasts from the Bureau of Meteorology's Gridded Operational Consensus Forecasting (GOCF) system are combined in real time with the Australian Water Availability Project (AWAP) gridded daily temperature analyses to produce gridded daily maximum and minimum temperature forecasts with lead times from one to five days. These forecasts are compared against the historical record of AWAP daily temperature analyses (1911 to present), to identify regions where record or near-record temperatures are predicted to occur. This paper describes the GOCF/AWAP system, showing how the daily maximum and minimum temperature forecasts are prepared from the hourly forecasts, and how they are bias-corrected in real time using the AWAP analyses, against which they are subsequently verified. Using monthly climatologies of long-term daily mean, standard deviation and all-time highest and lowest on record, derived forecast products (for both maximum and minimum temperature) include ordinary and standardised anomalies, 'forecast - highest on record' and 'forecast - lowest on record'. Compensation for the climatological variation across the country is achieved in these last two products, which provide the necessary guidance as to whether or not record-breaking temperatures are expected, by expressing the forecast departure from the previous record in both 0 C and standard deviations.