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Sample records for burrowing depth forecasts

  1. Sand moisture as a factor determining depth of burrowing in the ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Tylos granulatus, a sandy-beach isopod, prefers an environmental moisture range exceeding 3,4% but less than 13%. The depths to which the animals burrow are, at least partly, determined by the moisture gradient in the sand. They are, however, incapable of burrowing into lotally dry sand. Animals alter their position in ...

  2. Habitat requirements and burrowing depths of rodents in relation to shallow waste burial sites

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gano, K.A.; States, J.B.

    1982-05-01

    The purpose of this paper is to provide a review of the literature and summarize information on factors affecting habitat selection and maximum recorded burrowing depths for representative small mammals that we consider most likely to inhibit waste burial sites in arid and semi-arid regions of the West. The information is intended for waste management designers who need to know what to expect from small mammals that may be present at a particular site. Waste repositories oculd be designed to exclude the deep burrowing rodents of a region by creating an unattractive habitat over the waste. Summaries are given for habitat requirements of each group along with generalized modifications that could be employed to deter habitation. Representatives from the major groups considered to be deep burrowers are discussed. Further, detailed information about a particular species can be obtained from the references cited.

  3. Habitat requirements and burrowing depths of rodents in relation to shallow waste burial sites

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gano, K.A.; States, J.B.

    1982-05-01

    The purpose of this paper is to provide a review of the literature and summarize information on factors affecting habitat selection and maximum recorded burrowing depths for representative small mammals that we consider most likely to inhibit waste burial sites in arid and semi-arid regions of the West. The information is intended for waste management designers who need to know what to expect from small mammals that may be present at a particular site. Waste repositories oculd be designed to exclude the deep burrowing rodents of a region by creating an unattractive habitat over the waste. Summaries are given for habitat requirements of each group along with generalized modifications that could be employed to deter habitation. Representatives from the major groups considered to be deep burrowers are discussed. Further, detailed information about a particular species can be obtained from the references cited

  4. A new macrofaunal limit in the deep biosphere revealed by extreme burrow depths in ancient sediments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cobain, S L; Hodgson, D M; Peakall, J; Wignall, P B; Cobain, M R D

    2018-01-10

    Macrofauna is known to inhabit the top few 10s cm of marine sediments, with rare burrows up to two metres below the seabed. Here, we provide evidence from deep-water Permian strata for a previously unrecognised habitat up to at least 8 metres below the sediment-water interface. Infaunal organisms exploited networks of forcibly injected sand below the seabed, forming living traces and reworking sediment. This is the first record that shows sediment injections are responsible for hosting macrofaunal life metres below the contemporaneous seabed. In addition, given the widespread occurrence of thick sandy successions that accumulate in deep-water settings, macrofauna living in the deep biosphere are likely much more prevalent than considered previously. These findings should influence future sampling strategies to better constrain the depth range of infaunal animals living in modern deep-sea sands. One Sentence Summary: The living depth of infaunal macrofauna is shown to reach at least 8 metres in new habitats associated with sand injections.

  5. Online multistep-ahead inundation depth forecasts by recurrent NARX networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H.-Y. Shen

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Various types of artificial neural networks (ANNs have been successfully applied in hydrological fields, but relatively scant on multistep-ahead flood inundation forecasting, which is very difficult to achieve, especially when dealing with forecasts without regular observed data. This study proposes a recurrent configuration of nonlinear autoregressive with exogenous inputs (NARX network, called R-NARX, to forecast multistep-ahead inundation depths in an inundation area. The proposed R-NARX is constructed based on the recurrent neural network (RNN, which is commonly used for modeling nonlinear dynamical systems. The models were trained and tested based on a large number of inundation data generated by a well validated two-dimensional simulation model at thirteen inundation-prone sites in Yilan County, Taiwan. We demonstrate that the R-NARX model can effectively inhibit error growth and accumulation when being applied to online multistep-ahead inundation forecasts over a long lasting forecast period. For comparison, a feedforward time-delay and an online feedback configuration of NARX networks (T-NARX and O-NARX were performed. The results show that (1 T-NARX networks cannot make online forecasts due to unavailable inputs in the constructed networks even though they provide the best performances for reference only; and (2 R-NARX networks consistently outperform O-NARX networks and can be adequately applied to online multistep-ahead forecasts of inundation depths in the study area during typhoon events.

  6. Effects of magnitude, depth, and time on cellular seismology forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fisher, Steven Wolf

    This study finds that, in most cases analyzed to date, past seismicity tends to delineate zones where future earthquakes are likely to occur. Network seismicity catalogs for the New Madrid Seismic Zone (NMSZ), Australia (AUS), California (CA), and Alaska (AK) are analyzed using modified versions of the Cellular Seismology (CS) method of Kafka (2002, 2007). The percentage of later occurring earthquakes located near earlier occurring earthquakes typically exceeds the expected percentage for randomly distributed later occurring earthquakes, and the specific percentage is influenced by several variables, including magnitude, depth, time, and tectonic setting. At 33% map area coverage, hit percents are typically 85-95% in the NMSZ, 50-60% in AUS, 75-85% in CA, and 75-85% in AK. Statistical significance testing is performed on trials analyzing the same variables so that the overall regions can be compared, although some tests are inconclusive due to the small number of earthquake sample sizes. These results offer useful insights into understanding the capabilities and limits of CS studies, which can provide guidance for improving the seismicity-based components of seismic hazard assessments.

  7. Forecasted Flood Depth Grids Providing Early Situational Awareness to FEMA during the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, M.; Longenecker, H. E., III

    2017-12-01

    The 2017 hurricane season brought the unprecedented landfall of three Category 4 hurricanes (Harvey, Irma and Maria). FEMA is responsible for coordinating the federal response and recovery efforts for large disasters such as these. FEMA depends on timely and accurate depth grids to estimate hazard exposure, model damage assessments, plan flight paths for imagery acquisition, and prioritize response efforts. In order to produce riverine or coastal depth grids based on observed flooding, the methodology requires peak crest water levels at stream gauges, tide gauges, high water marks, and best-available elevation data. Because peak crest data isn't available until the apex of a flooding event and high water marks may take up to several weeks for field teams to collect for a large-scale flooding event, final observed depth grids are not available to FEMA until several days after a flood has begun to subside. Within the last decade NOAA's National Weather Service (NWS) has implemented the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS), a web-based suite of accurate forecast products that provide hydrograph forecasts at over 3,500 stream gauge locations across the United States. These forecasts have been newly implemented into an automated depth grid script tool, using predicted instead of observed water levels, allowing FEMA access to flood hazard information up to 3 days prior to a flooding event. Water depths are calculated from the AHPS predicted flood stages and are interpolated at 100m spacing along NHD hydrolines within the basin of interest. A water surface elevation raster is generated from these water depths using an Inverse Distance Weighted interpolation. Then, elevation (USGS NED 30m) is subtracted from the water surface elevation raster so that the remaining values represent the depth of predicted flooding above the ground surface. This automated process requires minimal user input and produced forecasted depth grids that were comparable to post

  8. Burrowing behavior of a deposit feeding bivalve predicts change in intertidal ecosystem state

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    Tanya Joan Compton

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Behavior has a predictive power that is often underutilized as a tool for signaling ecological change. The burrowing behavior of the deposit feeding bivalve Macoma balthica reflects a typical food-safety trade-off. The choice to live close to the sediment surface comes at a risk of predation and is a decision made when predation danger, food intake rates or future fitness prospects are low. In parts of the Dutch Wadden Sea, Macoma populations declined by 90% in the late 1990s, in parallel with large-scale mechanical cockle-dredging activities. During this decline, the burrowing depth of Macoma became shallow and was correlated with the population decline in the following year, indicating that it forecasted population change. Recently, there has been a series of large recruitment events in Macoma. According to the food-safety trade-off, we expected that Macoma should now live deeper, and have a higher body condition in association with this change in depth of living. Indeed, we observed that Macoma now lives deeper and that living depth in a given year forecasted population growth to the next year, especially in individuals larger than 14 mm. As living depth and body condition were strongly correlated in individuals larger than 14 mm, larger Macoma could be living deeper to protect their reproductive assets. Our results confirmed that burrowing depth signals impending population change and, together with body condition, can provide an early warning signal of ecological change. We suggest that population recovery is being driven by improved intertidal habitat quality in the Dutch Wadden Sea, rather than by the proposed climate-change related effects. This shift in ecosystem state is suggested to include the recovery of diatom habitat in the top layer of the sediment after cockle-dredging ended.

  9. Identification of hydrological model parameters for flood forecasting using data depth measures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krauße, T.; Cullmann, J.

    2011-03-01

    The development of methods for estimating the parameters of hydrological models considering uncertainties has been of high interest in hydrological research over the last years. Besides the very popular Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods which estimate the uncertainty of model parameters in the settings of a Bayesian framework, the development of depth based sampling methods, also entitled robust parameter estimation (ROPE), have attracted an increasing research interest. These methods understand the estimation of model parameters as a geometric search of a set of robust performing parameter vectors by application of the concept of data depth. Recent studies showed that the parameter vectors estimated by depth based sampling perform more robust in validation. One major advantage of this kind of approach over the MCMC methods is that the formulation of a likelihood function within a Bayesian uncertainty framework gets obsolete and arbitrary purpose-oriented performance criteria defined by the user can be integrated without any further complications. In this paper we present an advanced ROPE method entitled the Advanced Robust Parameter Estimation by Monte Carlo algorithm (AROPEMC). The AROPEMC algorithm is a modified version of the original robust parameter estimation algorithm ROPEMC developed by Bárdossy and Singh (2008). AROPEMC performs by merging iterative Monte Carlo simulations, identifying well performing parameter vectors, the sampling of robust parameter vectors according to the principle of data depth and the application of a well-founded stopping criterion applied in supervised machine learning. The principals of the algorithm are illustrated by means of the Rosenbrock's and Rastrigin's function, two well known performance benchmarks for optimisation algorithms. Two case studies demonstrate the advantage of AROPEMC compared to state of the art global optimisation algorithms. A distributed process-oriented hydrological model is calibrated and

  10. Rodent burrows in late Pleistocene paleosols at Korean Palaeolithic sites and their implications for paleoclimate changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lim, H.; Park, S.; Lee, J.; Lee, Y.

    2013-12-01

    Rodent burrows are commonly found at many Paleolithic archaeological sites in Korea. They are nearly straight in horizontal view and gently inclined in lateral view. Burrow diameters are mostly 7 - 10cm, and burrow length may reach a few meters. Vertical penetration depths are generally about 1 m from the surface, and the thickness of the burrow-bearing layer is about 1-2 m. Although no remains (bones, teeth, claws, and coprolites) were found within burrows, they are interpreted to have been produced by rodent-like mammals (probably ground squirrels) based on the size and architecture. According to the previous study, the age of these burrows was constrained to be between ca. 40,000 and 25,000 yr BP by tephrochronology, radiocarbon and optically stimulated luminescence dating results (Lim et al., 2007). However, little is known about the reason why these burrows have disappeared after late Pleistocene time. For this question, two explanations can be considered: extinction or migration. Since same kinds of burrows are still found in the high-latitude regions, such as Mongolia and North America, the possibility of extinction can be ruled out. Therefore, migration seems to be the most likely explanation. Our results show that the destruction of habitat caused by climate change during this period is the main reason for the northward migration of burrowing animals. This study suggests that rodent burrows found in the late Pleistocene paleosols can provide useful information on paleoclimate and paleoenvironmental changes.

  11. High Resolution Trajectory-Based Smoke Forecasts Using VIIRS Aerosol Optical Depth and NUCAPS Carbon Monoxide Retrievals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pierce, R. B.; Smith, N.; Barnet, C.; Barnet, C. D.; Kondragunta, S.; Davies, J. E.; Strabala, K.

    2016-12-01

    We use Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (S-NPP) Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) and combined Cross-track Infrared Sounder (CrIS) and Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS) NOAA-Unique CrIS-ATMS Processing System (NUCAPS) carbon monoxide (CO) retrievals to initialize trajectory-based, high spatial resolution North American smoke dispersion forecasts during the May 2016 Fort McMurray wildfire in northern Alberta and the July 2016 Soberanes Fire in Northern California. These two case studies illustrate how long range transport of wild fire smoke can adversely impact surface air quality thousands of kilometers downwind and how local topographic flow can lead to complex transport patterns near the wildfire source region. The NUCAPS CO retrievals are shown to complement the high resolution VIIRS AOD retrievals by providing retrievals in partially cloudy scenes and also providing information on the vertical distribution of the wildfire smoke. This work addresses the need for low latency, web-based, high resolution forecasts of smoke dispersion for use by NWS Incident Meteorologists (IMET) to support on-site decision support services for fire incident management teams. The primary user community for the IDEA-I smoke forecasts is the Western regions of the NWS and US EPA due to the significant impacts of wildfires in these regions. Secondary users include Alaskan NWS offices and Western State and Local air quality management agencies such as the Western Regional Air Partnership (WRAP).

  12. The burrowing characteristics of three common earthworm species

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Francis, G.S.; Tabley, F.J.; Butler, R.C.; Fraser, P.M.

    2001-01-01

    The burrowing characteristics of 3 common earthworm species were studied using X-ray computed tomography (CT) scanning in large cylinders (24.1 cm diameter) packed with topsoil (0-25 cm) and subsoil (25-50 cm) to representative field bulk density values and sown with ryegrass. Replicated cylinders (n 3), kept under constant moisture and temperature conditions, were inoculated with mature species of Lumbricus rubellus, Aporrectodea caliginosa, or Octolasion cyaneum earthworms at rates similar to their population density in the field. A non-inoculated, unreplicated control was also included. The number, biomass, and activity of the 3 species were then examined. X-ray CT scanning of large-diameter soil cylinders offers an alternative method for obtaining information on the burrowing characteristics of earthworms (Jegou et al. 1999). As this method is non-destructive, repeat measurements can be made and the use of large cylinders minimises edge effects. The objectives of this study were to: (i) assess the burrowing characteristics of 3 earthworm species (under artificial conditions) through measurement of 2-D porosity using X-ray CT scanning, (ii) estimate the extent of burrow backfilling between sequential scans, and (iii) estimate the continuity of earthworm burrows with depth through hydraulic conductivity measurements. Copyright (2001) CSIRO Publishing

  13. Influence of photoperiod on body weight and depth of burrowing in larvae of Chrysomya megacephala (Fabricius (Diptera, Calliphoridae and implications for forensic entomology A influência do fotoperíodo no peso corpóreo e na profundidade de enterramento em larvas de Chrysomya megacephala (Fabricius (Diptera, Calliphoridae e as implicações para entomologia forense

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leonardo Gomes

    2006-03-01

    Full Text Available Blowflies use discrete, ephemeral breeding sites for larval nutrition. After exhaustion of the food supply, the larvae disperse in search of sites to pupate or to seek other sources of food in a process known as post-feeding larval dispersal. In this study, some of the most important aspects of this process were investigated in larvae of the blowflies Chrysomya megacephala exposed to a variety of light: dark (LD cycles (0:0 h, 12:12 h and 24:0 h and incubated in tubes covered with vermiculite. For each pupa, the body weight and depth of burrowing were determined. Statistical tests were used to examine the relationship of depth of burrowing and body weight to photoperiod at which burrowing occurred. The study of burial behavior in post-feeding larval dispersing can be useful for estimating the postmortem interval (PMI of human corpses in forensic medicine.Moscas-varejeiras usam substratos discretos e efêmeros para nutrição larval. Após a exaustão do suprimento de comida, as larvas dispersam na procura por locais para pupação na outros recursos de alimento em um processo conhecido como dispersão larval pós- alimentar. Nesse estudo, alguns dos aspectos mais importantes desse processo foram investigados em larvas de moscas-varejeiras Chrysomya megacephala expostas a uma variação de ciclos luz: escuro (LD (0:24h, 12:12h e 24:0h e incubadas em tubos cobertos com vermiculita. Para cada pupa, o peso corpóreo e a profundidade de enterramento foram determinados. Testes estatísticos foram usados para examinar a relação entre profundidade de enterramento e o peso corpóreo e o fotoperíodo a que esse enterramento ocorreu. O estudo do comportamento de enterramento na dispersão larval pós-alimentar pode ser útil para estimar o intervalo pós-morte (IPM em cadáveres humanos em medicina forense.

  14. Burrowing owl nesting productivity: A comparison between artificial and natural burrows on and off golf courses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, M.D.; Conway, C.J.; Ellis, L.A.

    2005-01-01

    Burrowing owl (Athene cunicularia) populations are declining in many portions of their range, and lack of suitable nesting burrows is thought to be one reason for observed declines. Burrowing owls are attracted to golf courses because the birds generally nest and forage in short-grass, open areas, yet golf courses seldom have suitable nesting burrows. We examined the efficacy of installing artificial nesting burrows on golf courses as a way to help restore local burrowing owl populations. From 2001-2004 we monitored over 175 natural burrows off golf courses, 14 natural burrows on golf courses, 86 artificial burrows off golf courses, and 130 artificial burrows on golf courses. Owls located and used 8 of the 130 artificial burrows installed on golf courses (4 were used as nests). Owls selected burrows that were closer to existing natural burrows, farther from maintained areas (areas receiving turf maintenance by golf course staff), and farther from sprinkler heads. All 4 of the artificial burrows used as nests successfully fledged young, and annual site fidelity for owls nesting on golf courses was higher than for owls nesting off golf courses. However, annual fecundity of owls nesting on golf courses was lower than that of owls nesting off golf courses. If golf courses have sufficiently large nonmaintained areas and there are nesting owls nearby, course managers potentially can help in restoring local burrowing owl populations by installing artificial nesting burrows on the periphery of the course. However, the low fecundity on golf courses reported here should be more thoroughly examined before artificial burrows are used to attract owls to golf courses.

  15. Burrows of the semi-terrestrial crab Ucides cordatus enhance CO2 release in a North Brazilian mangrove forest.

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    Nathalie Pülmanns

    Full Text Available Ucides cordatus is an abundant mangrove crab in Brazil constructing burrows of up to 2 m depth. Sediment around burrows may oxidize during low tides. This increase in sediment-air contact area may enhance carbon degradation processes. We hypothesized that 1 the sediment CO2 efflux rate is greater with burrows than without and 2 the reduction potential in radial profiles in the sediment surrounding the burrows decreases gradually, until approximating non-bioturbated conditions. Sampling was conducted during the North Brazilian wet season at neap tides. CO2 efflux rates of inhabited burrows and plain sediment were measured with a CO2/H2O gas analyzer connected to a respiration chamber. Sediment redox potential, pH and temperature were measured in the sediment surrounding the burrows at horizontal distances of 2, 5, 8 and 15 cm at four sediment depths (1, 10, 30 and 50 cm and rH values were calculated. Sediment cores (50 cm length were taken to measure the same parameters for plain sediment. CO2 efflux rates of plain sediment and individual crab burrows with entrance diameters of 7 cm were 0.7-1.3 µmol m(-2 s(-1 and 0.2-0.4 µmol burrows(-1 s(-1, respectively. CO2 released from a Rhizophora mangle dominated forest with an average of 1.7 U. cordatus burrows(-1 m(-2 yielded 1.0-1.7 µmol m(-2 s(-1, depending on the month and burrow entrance diameter. Laboratory experiments revealed that 20-60% of the CO2 released by burrows originated from crab respiration. Temporal changes in the reduction potential in the sediment surrounding the burrows did not influence the CO2 release from burrows. More oxidized conditions of plain sediment over time may explain the increase in CO2 release until the end of the wet season. CO2 released by U. cordatus and their burrows may be a significant pathway of CO2 export from mangrove sediments and should be considered in mangrove carbon budget estimates.

  16. Burrows of the semi-terrestrial crab Ucides cordatus enhance CO2 release in a North Brazilian mangrove forest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pülmanns, Nathalie; Diele, Karen; Mehlig, Ulf; Nordhaus, Inga

    2014-01-01

    Ucides cordatus is an abundant mangrove crab in Brazil constructing burrows of up to 2 m depth. Sediment around burrows may oxidize during low tides. This increase in sediment-air contact area may enhance carbon degradation processes. We hypothesized that 1) the sediment CO2 efflux rate is greater with burrows than without and 2) the reduction potential in radial profiles in the sediment surrounding the burrows decreases gradually, until approximating non-bioturbated conditions. Sampling was conducted during the North Brazilian wet season at neap tides. CO2 efflux rates of inhabited burrows and plain sediment were measured with a CO2/H2O gas analyzer connected to a respiration chamber. Sediment redox potential, pH and temperature were measured in the sediment surrounding the burrows at horizontal distances of 2, 5, 8 and 15 cm at four sediment depths (1, 10, 30 and 50 cm) and rH values were calculated. Sediment cores (50 cm length) were taken to measure the same parameters for plain sediment. CO2 efflux rates of plain sediment and individual crab burrows with entrance diameters of 7 cm were 0.7-1.3 µmol m(-2) s(-1) and 0.2-0.4 µmol burrows(-1) s(-1), respectively. CO2 released from a Rhizophora mangle dominated forest with an average of 1.7 U. cordatus burrows(-1) m(-2) yielded 1.0-1.7 µmol m(-2) s(-1), depending on the month and burrow entrance diameter. Laboratory experiments revealed that 20-60% of the CO2 released by burrows originated from crab respiration. Temporal changes in the reduction potential in the sediment surrounding the burrows did not influence the CO2 release from burrows. More oxidized conditions of plain sediment over time may explain the increase in CO2 release until the end of the wet season. CO2 released by U. cordatus and their burrows may be a significant pathway of CO2 export from mangrove sediments and should be considered in mangrove carbon budget estimates.

  17. Burrowing Owls, Pulex irritans, and Plague.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Belthoff, James R; Bernhardt, Scott A; Ball, Christopher L; Gregg, Michael; Johnson, David H; Ketterling, Rachel; Price, Emily; Tinker, Juliette K

    2015-09-01

    Western Burrowing Owls (Athene cunicularia hypugaea) are small, ground-dwelling owls of western North America that frequent prairie dog (Cynomys spp.) towns and other grasslands. Because they rely on rodent prey and occupy burrows once or concurrently inhabited by fossorial mammals, the owls often harbor fleas. We examined the potential role of fleas found on burrowing owls in plague dynamics by evaluating prevalence of Yersinia pestis in fleas collected from burrowing owls and in owl blood. During 2012-2013, fleas and blood were collected from burrowing owls in portions of five states with endemic plague-Idaho, Oregon, Washington, Colorado, and South Dakota. Fleas were enumerated, taxonomically identified, pooled by nest, and assayed for Y. pestis using culturing and molecular (PCR) approaches. Owl blood underwent serological analysis for plague antibodies and nested PCR for detection of Y. pestis. Of more than 4750 fleas collected from owls, Pulex irritans, a known plague vector in portions of its range, comprised more than 99.4%. However, diagnostic tests for Y. pestis of flea pools (culturing and PCR) and owl blood (PCR and serology) were negative. Thus, even though fleas were prevalent on burrowing owls and the potential for a relationship with burrowing owls as a phoretic host of infected fleas exists, we found no evidence of Y. pestis in sampled fleas or in owls that harbored them. We suggest that studies similar to those reported here during plague epizootics will be especially useful for confirming these results.

  18. Mechanics and Energetics of Excavation by Burrowing Wolf Spiders, Geolycosa spp.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suter, Robert B.; Stratton, Gail E.; Miller, Patricia R.

    2011-01-01

    Burrowing wolf spiders, Geolycosa sp. (Araneae:Lycosidae), excavate vertical burrows and inhabit them throughout their lives or, in the case of males, until they mature and wander in search of mates. Three species: G. fatifera Kurata, G. missouriensis Banks, and G. rogersi Wallace were studied to understand how and at what expense the burrowing is accomplished. Normal and high-speed videography coupled with scanning electron microscopy revealed (a) that the convex surfaces of the two fangs, together, constitute the digging tool, (b) that boluses of soil are transported to the burrow entrance on the anterior surfaces of the chelicerae held there by the pedipalps, and (c) that each bolus is either incorporated into the growing turret or flung away, propelled by the forelegs. To elucidate the energetics of burrow construction, burrow volumes were calculated and then the costs associated with dislodging, elevating, and throwing the known volumes of soil were measured. A typical Geolycosa burrow, at a volume of 23.6 ± 2.0 ml and a depth of 13.2 ± 0.7 cm, required the removal of 918 boluses each weighing about 34 mg. The aggregate dislodging cost was close to 1.9 Joules in sand/sandy loam and 5.6 J in clayey subsoil, the work against gravity necessary to raise all of the boluses to the surface was about 0.13 J, and the aggregate cost of flinging the boluses was close to 0.014 J. Assuming that the ratio of external work to metabolic cost of external work is between 0.20 and 0.25 in spiders, the real cost of burrow construction would be between 8 J and 29 J, depending primarily on soil type. This is a small but not negligible cost when placed in the context of reproductive effort: a single Geolycosa egg, dozens to hundreds of which are produced in a clutch, contains about 10 J. PMID:21529154

  19. Burrowing Owl - Palo Verde Valley [ds197

    Data.gov (United States)

    California Natural Resource Agency — These burrowing owl observations were collected during the spring and early summer of 1976 in the Palo Verde Valley, eastern Riverside County, California. This is an...

  20. The burrows of Parastacus defossus (Decapoda: Parastacidae, a fossorial freshwater crayfish from southern Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Clarissa K. Noro

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available Parastacus defossus Faxon, 1898 is a fossorial crayfish species, which constructs its burrows in swampy areas in southeast Uruguay and in the state of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil. The present field study was carried out in Lami, Porto Alegre, Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil, from May 2003 through August 2005. Environmental measurements (temperature, pH, dissolved oxygen, and water-table depth of the water in the galleries were made monthly. Burrow morphology was analyzed by means of resin and gypsum casts. The spatial distribution and changes in the number and shape of the surface openings over time were observed in a 100 m² area. To estimate the spatial distribution of the openings, the observed distribution was compared with the expected distribution predicted by the Poisson and Negative Binomial frequency-distribution models. The adult population density was estimated by direct observation of burrows and counts in the study area. Inside the burrows of P. defossus, the water temperature ranged between 16.6°C (autumn 2004 and 23°C (spring 2003. The water was hypoxic and slightly acidic, and the dissolved oxygen content was very low (mean 1.43 mg/l (18.2% saturation. The soil with burrows had higher percentages of coarse sand, fine sand, and silt. The spatial distribution of the openings showed a significant fit to the Negative Binomial distribution, indicating that the distribution of the openings is aggregated, as confirmed from the burrow morphology. The galleries are always formed by a central tunnel with multiple branchings that connect the underground water to the soil surface by one or more openings, which can be recognized by the chimneys. From knowledge of the burrow morphology, the population density was estimated to be about 120 individuals/100 m².

  1. Burrows of the Semi-Terrestrial Crab Ucides cordatus Enhance CO2 Release in a North Brazilian Mangrove Forest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pülmanns, Nathalie; Diele, Karen; Mehlig, Ulf; Nordhaus, Inga

    2014-01-01

    Ucides cordatus is an abundant mangrove crab in Brazil constructing burrows of up to 2 m depth. Sediment around burrows may oxidize during low tides. This increase in sediment-air contact area may enhance carbon degradation processes. We hypothesized that 1) the sediment CO2 efflux rate is greater with burrows than without and 2) the reduction potential in radial profiles in the sediment surrounding the burrows decreases gradually, until approximating non-bioturbated conditions. Sampling was conducted during the North Brazilian wet season at neap tides. CO2 efflux rates of inhabited burrows and plain sediment were measured with a CO2/H2O gas analyzer connected to a respiration chamber. Sediment redox potential, pH and temperature were measured in the sediment surrounding the burrows at horizontal distances of 2, 5, 8 and 15 cm at four sediment depths (1, 10, 30 and 50 cm) and rH values were calculated. Sediment cores (50 cm length) were taken to measure the same parameters for plain sediment. CO2 efflux rates of plain sediment and individual crab burrows with entrance diameters of 7 cm were 0.7–1.3 µmol m−2 s−1 and 0.2–0.4 µmol burrows−1 s−1, respectively. CO2 released from a Rhizophora mangle dominated forest with an average of 1.7 U. cordatus burrows−1 m−2 yielded 1.0–1.7 µmol m−2 s−1, depending on the month and burrow entrance diameter. Laboratory experiments revealed that 20–60% of the CO2 released by burrows originated from crab respiration. Temporal changes in the reduction potential in the sediment surrounding the burrows did not influence the CO2 release from burrows. More oxidized conditions of plain sediment over time may explain the increase in CO2 release until the end of the wet season. CO2 released by U. cordatus and their burrows may be a significant pathway of CO2 export from mangrove sediments and should be considered in mangrove carbon budget estimates. PMID:25313661

  2. Dusk but not dawn burrow emergence rhythms of Nephrops norvegicus (Crustacea: Decapoda

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valerio Sbragaglia

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available The Norway lobster, Nephrops norvegicus, can be captured by haul nets only during the emergence from its burrow. In the last few decades, an extensive field research revealed distinct diel (24-h–based catchability patterns at different depths. Laboratory experiments suggested that burrow emergence (used as a proxy of catchability is endogenously controlled via a circadian system. Results were usually presented in terms of mean effects without a quantification of inter-individual variability and arrhythmia. Here, we studied the burrow emergence of 52 adult Nephrops by an infrared actograph endowed with an artificial burrow. Animals were exposed to 12-12 h light-darkness cycle, simulating photic condition of the lower shelf. Forty-five animals showed rhythmic emergence (87%, while seven were arrhythmic (13%. Rhythmic animals were clustered according to their timing of emergence: 54% at dusk and 4% at dawn. Moreover, other animals showed fully diurnal or nocturnal emergence (10% and 19%, respectively. The comparison of our results with those derived from temporally scheduled trawling indicates that bimodal catch patterns observed in shelf populations are poorly observed during individual experiments in the laboratory, where the same light conditions are simulated. Nephrops burrow emergence seems to be the result of a mixed endogenous-exogenous control, while arrhythmia could also be present in the wild.

  3. Burrow characteristics of the co-existing sibling species Mus booduga and Mus terricolor and the genetic basis of adaptation to hypoxic/hypercapnic stress

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Narayan Gopeshwar

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The co-existing, sibling species Mus booduga and Mus terricolor show a difference in site-preference for burrows. The former build them in flat portion of the fields while the latter make burrows in earthen mounds raised for holding water in cultivated fields. In northern India which experiences great variation in climatic condition between summer and winter, M. booduga burrows have an average depth of 41 cm, as against 30 cm in southern India with less climatic fluctuation. M. terricolor burrows are about 20 cm deep everywhere. The three chromosomal species M. terricolor I, II and III have identical burrows, including location of the nest which is situated at the highest position. In contrast, in M. booduga burrows, the nest is at the lowest position. Results The nest chamber of M. booduga is located at greater depth than the nest chamber of M. terricolor. Also, in the burrows of M. booduga the exchange of air takes place only from one side (top surface in contrast to the burrows of M. terricolor where air exchange is through three sides. Hence, M. booduga lives in relatively more hypoxic and hypercapnic conditions than M. terricolor. We observed the fixation of alternative alleles in M. booduga and M. terricolor at Superoxide dismutase-1 (Sod-1, Transferrin (Trf and Hemoglobin beta chain (Hbb loci. All the three are directly or indirectly dependent on oxygen concentration for function. In addition to these, there are differences in burrow patterns and site-preference for burrows suggesting difference in probable adaptive strategy in these co-existing sibling species. Conclusion The burrow structure and depth of nest of the chromosomal species M. terricolor I, II and III are same everywhere probably due to the recency of their evolutionary divergence. Moreover, there is lack of competition for the well-adapted 'microhabitats' since they are non-overlapping in distribution. However, the co-existing sibling species M. booduga

  4. Short Communications Sand moisture as a factor determining depth ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    1993-11-05

    Nov 5, 1993 ... The depths to which the animals burrow are, at least partly. determined by the moisture gradient in the sand. They are, however, incapable of burrowing into totally dry sand. Animals alter their position in the sand in response to changes in moisture content so as to ensure exposure to suitable conditions.

  5. The effects of two free-floating plants (Eichhornia crassipes and Pistia stratiotes on the burrow morphology and water quality characteristics of pond loach (Misgurnus anguillicaudatus habitat

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jinqing Wang

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Loach exhibit conspicuous drilling behaviors in the mud of shallow waters, yet their burrow morphology and the factors affecting this behavior have received little attention. We characterized the burrow morphology and water quality of the pond loach Misgurnus anguillicaudatus in three scenarios: in tanks without plants, tanks with the free-floating plant water hyacinth Eichhornia crassipes, and tanks with water lettuce Pistia stratiotes. Water hyacinth effectively removed water TN, COD, NO3-N and NH4-N, and water lettuce removed water TP and NH4-N. Water hyacinth and water lettuce markedly reduced water turbidity and DO, increased TOC and EC. Water hyacinth purified water more effectively than water lettuce, providing a suitable habitat for loach feeding, living and burrowing. The burrow structures were V-shaped, Y-shaped, inverted L-shaped, or complicated dendritic networks composed of multiple V shapes. The hyacinth treatment was characterized by the greatest burrow volume, length, depth, and structural complexity, but the opening size was reduced by dense root mat coverage. Burrows in the water lettuce treatment were characterized by intermediate volume, length, branches and sinuosity, but they had the largest opening and pit size. The control treatment had a flat bottom with the smallest, shortest burrows. This study indicates that free-floating plants improve habitat suitability and change burrow morphology and may be used to improve loach breeding methods.

  6. Razor clam to RoboClam: burrowing drag reduction mechanisms and their robotic adaptation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Winter, A G; V; Dorsch, D S; Slocum, A H; Hosoi, A E; Deits, R L H

    2014-01-01

    Estimates based on the strength, size, and shape of the Atlantic razor clam (Ensis directus) indicate that the animal's burrow depth should be physically limited to a few centimeters; yet razor clams can dig as deep as 70 cm. By measuring soil deformations around burrowing E. directus, we have found the animal reduces drag by contracting its valves to initially fail, and then fluidize, the surrounding substrate. The characteristic contraction time to achieve fluidization can be calculated directly from soil properties. The geometry of the fluidized zone is dictated by two commonly-measured geotechnical parameters: coefficient of lateral earth pressure and friction angle. Calculations using full ranges for both parameters indicate that the fluidized zone is a local effect, occurring between 1–5 body radii away from the animal. The energy associated with motion through fluidized substrate—characterized by a depth-independent density and viscosity—scales linearly with depth. In contrast, moving through static soil requires energy that scales with depth squared. For E. directus, this translates to a 10X reduction in the energy required to reach observed burrow depths. For engineers, localized fluidization offers a mechanically simple and purely kinematic method to dramatically reduce energy costs associated with digging. This concept is demonstrated with RoboClam, an E. directus-inspired robot. Using a genetic algorithm to find optimal digging kinematics, RoboClam has achieved localized fluidization burrowing performance comparable to that of the animal, with a linear energy-depth relationship, in both idealized granular glass beads and E. directus' native cohesive mudflat habitat. (paper)

  7. Like night and day: Reversals of thermal gradients across ghost crab burrows and their implications for thermal ecology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watson, Gregory S.; Gregory, Emily A.; Johnstone, Charmaine; Berlino, Manuel; Green, David W.; Peterson, Nicola R.; Schoeman, David S.; Watson, Jolanta A.

    2018-04-01

    Ghost crabs, Ocypode cordimanus, inhabit relatively hostile environments subject to thermal fluctuations, including both diurnal and seasonal cycles. For many ectotherms, including ghost crabs, a major challenge is to remain cool during hot daytime temperatures. This can be achieved by adopting a fossorial lifestyle, taking advantage of thermal refuge afforded by burrows of sufficient depth. Another consideration, often overlooked, is the potential advantage associated with ready access to a thermal energy source (a "charging station") when surface temperatures are cooler. Being able to rapidly elevate body temperature during cool periods would enhance the crab's ability to maintain rate processes and carry out essential activities. We have measured ghost crab burrow temperature profiles at two times of the day with contrasting sun exposure (06:00 and 14:00), demonstrating how effective burrow depth (up to a maximum of 40 cm) provides thermal regulation below the surface of the sand (e.g., at dawn (06:00) and early afternoon (14:00) at a depth of 5 cm, temperatures (±SD) of 16.32 ± 0.96 °C and 25.04 ± 1.47 °C were recorded, respectively. Corresponding temperatures at a depth of 30 cm were 19.17 ± 0.59 °C and 19.78 ± 1.60 °C, respectively). This demonstrates that while temperature conditions at the surface vary dramatically from night to day, ghost crab burrows can maintain relatively constant temperatures at the burrow base throughout the diurnal cycle, at least during winter. As a consequence, the burrow heat signatures undergo a corresponding thermal gradient reversal between night and day, as revealed by infra-red photography. Complementing these field observations, we also determined heating and cooling times/constants for O. cordimanus in the laboratory (τ = 17.54 and 16.59 JK-1, respectively), and analysed chemical composition of their carapace (external (with β Chitin evident) and internal (predominance of α Chitin)), which is the primary thermal

  8. Priming effect in topsoil and subsoil induced by earthworm burrows

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thu, Duyen Hoang Thi

    2017-04-01

    Earthworms (Lumbricus terrestris L.) not only affect soil physics, but they also boost microbial activities and consequently important hotspots of microbial mediated carbon and C turnover through their burrowing activity. However, it is still unknown to which extend earthworms affect priming effect in top- and subsoil horizons. More labile C inputs in earthworm burrows were hypothesized to trigger higher priming of soil organic matter (SOM) decomposition compared to rhizosphere and bulk soil. Moreover, this effect was expected to be more pronounced in subsoil due to its greater C and nutrient limitation. To test these hypotheses, biopores and bulk soil were sampled from topsoil (0-30 cm) and two subsoil depths (45-75 and 75-105 cm). Additionally, rhizosphere samples were taken from the topsoil. Total organic C (Corg), total N (TN), total P (TP) and enzyme activities involved in C-, N-, and P-cycling (cellobiohydrolase, β-glucosidase, xylanase, chitinase, leucine aminopeptidase and phosphatase) were measured. Priming effects were calculated as the difference in SOM-derived CO2 from soil with or without 14C-labelled glucose addition. Enzyme activities in biopores were positively correlated with Corg, TN and TP, but in bulk soil this correlation was negative. The more frequent fresh and labile C inputs to biopores caused 4 to 20 time higher absolute priming of SOM turnover due to enzyme activities that were one order of magnitude higher than in bulk soil. In subsoil biopores, reduced labile C inputs and lower N availability stimulated priming twofold greater than in topsoil. In contrast, a positive priming effect in bulk soil was only detected at 75-105 cm depth. We conclude that earthworm burrows provide not only the linkage between top- and subsoil for C and nutrients, but strongly increase microbial activities and accelerate SOM turnover in subsoil, contributing to nutrient mobilization for roots and CO2 emission increase as a greenhouse gas. Additionally, the

  9. Sedimentary organic matter distributions, burrowing activity, and biogeochemical cycling: Natural patterns and experimental artifacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michaud, Emma; Aller, Robert, C.; Stora, Georges

    2010-11-01

    The coupling between biogenic reworking activity and reactive organic matter patterns within deposits is poorly understood and often ignored. In this study, we examined how common experimental treatments of sediment affect the burrowing behavior of the polychaete Nephtys incisa and how these effects may interact with reactive organic matter distributions to alter diagenetic transport - reaction balances. Sediment and animals were recovered from a subtidal site in central Long Island Sound, USA. The upper 15 cm of the sediment was sectioned into sub-intervals, and each interval separately sieved and homogenized. Three initial distributions of sediment and organic substrate reactivity were setup in a series of microcosms: (1) a reconstituted natural pattern with surface-derived sediment overlying sediment obtained from progressively deeper material to a depth of 15 cm (Natural); (2) a 15 cm thick sediment layer composed only of surface-derived sediment (Rich); and (3) a 15 cm thick layer composed of uniformally mixed sediment from the original 15 cm sediment profile (Averaged). The two last treatments are comparable to that used in microcosms in many previous studies of bioturbation and interspecific functional interaction experiments. Sediment grain size distributions were 97.5% silt-clay and showed no depth dependent patterns. Sediment porosity gradients were slightly altered by the treatments. Nepthys were reintroduced and aquariums were X-rayed regularly over 5 months to visualize and quantify spatial and temporal dynamics of burrows. The burrowing behaviour of adult populations having similar total biovolume, biomass, abundance, and individual sizes differed substantially as a function of treatment. Burrows in sediment with natural property gradients were much shallower and less dense than those in microcosms with altered gradients. The burrow volume/biovolume ratio was also lower in the substrate with natural organic reactivity gradients. Variation in food

  10. The influence of small-mammal burrowing activity on water storage at the Hanford Site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Landeen, D.S.

    1994-01-01

    This paper summarizes the activities that were conducted in support of the long-term surface barrier development program by Westinghouse Hanford Company to determine the degree that small-mammal burrow systems affect the loss or retention of water in the soils at the Hanford Site in Washington state. An animal intrusion lysimeter facility was constructed, consisting of two outer boxes buried at grade, which served as receptacles for six animal intrusion lysimeters. Small burrowing animals common the Hanford Site were introduced over a 3- to 4-month period. Supplemental precipitation was added monthly to three of the lysimeters with a rainfall simulator (rainulator). Information collected from the five tests indicated that (1) during summer months, water was lost in all the lysimeters, including the supplemental precipitation added with the rainulator; and (2) during winter months, all lysimeters gained water. The data indicate little difference in the amount of water stored between control and animal lysimeters. The overall water loss was attributed to surface evaporation, a process that occurred equally in control and treatment lysimeters. Other causes of water loss are a result of (1) constant soil turnover and subsequent drying, and (2) burrow ventilation effects. This suggests that burrow systems will not contribute to any significant water storage at depth and, in fact, may enhance the removal of water from the soil

  11. The role of burrowing sponges in bioerosion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rützler, Klaus

    1975-09-01

    Among the large number of limestone-eroding organisms, sponges, mainly of the family Clinonidae are of special interest because of their efficient means of substratum penetration by cellular etching and because they release characteristically shaped calcium carbonate chips which can be detected in the mud-size fraction of many sediments. Identifiable trace fossils and sediments are of great ecological and paleoecological significance.As new data on the excavating mechanism have become available, the questions of burrowing rates and sediment production have gained importance. Extrapolation from shortterm experiments (under 6 months) on substrate invasion are inconclusive because of high initial penetration rates resulting from mechanical stimulation and lack of competition. New experiments show that the rate curve flattens after 6 months and that optimum longterm erosion of CaCO 3 does not exceed 700 mg m -2 year -1 (Cliona lampa and C. aprica). Substrate limitations and competition will further reduce this rate.By monitoring the production of CaCO 3 chips by Cliona lampa, it was possible to link activity patterns to certain environmental factors. Mechanical stimuli, high light intensity, strong currents and, possibly, low temperature seem to accelerate the burrowing process. Sponge-generated chips can make up over 40% of coral mud when deposited in the current shadow of the reef framework.Using transect counts and sponge area-biomass conversion factors, the mean abundance of burrowing sponges on the Bermuda platform could be calculated. On suitable hard bottom substrates it averages 16 g dry weight per m 2 . From this value the burrowing potential of sponges can be estimated as 256 g CaCO 3 per m 2 substrate per year. Since 97-98% of the eroded limestone remains in particulate form, the contribution of fine sediments can amount to 250 g m -2 year -1 .Attention is called to the fact that erosion rates by burrowers can not directly be compared with those of borers or

  12. Burrowing Owl Monitoring Report for Calendar Year 2012

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wilde, Justin W.; Lindsey, Cole T.; Nugent, John J.

    2013-03-14

    The monitoring during 2012 focused on documenting the status of known burrows. Newly identified burrows were documented while examining historical locations, during ecological resource reviews, or discovered during other monitoring efforts. The timing of the monitoring effort allowed staff to perform the surveys without disrupting any breeding or hatching, while also allowing for easy discernment of adults from juveniles, which helped in determining burrow-use type.

  13. Population models of burrowing mayfly recolonization in Western Lake Erie

    Science.gov (United States)

    Madenjian, C.P.; Schloesser, D.W.; Krieger, K.A.

    1998-01-01

    Burrowing mayflies, Hexagenia spp. (H. limbata and H. rigida), began recolonizing western Lake Erie during the 1990s. Survey data for mayfly nymph densities indicated that the population experienced exponential growth between 1991 and 1997. To predict the time to full recovery of the mayfly population, we fitted logistic models, ranging in carrying capacity from 600 to 2000 nymphs/m2, to these survey data. Based on the fitted logistic curves, we forecast that the mayfly population in western Lake Erie would achieve full recovery between years 1998 and 2000, depending on the carrying capacity of the western basin. Additionally, we estimated the mortality rate of nymphs in western Lake Erie during 1994 and then applied an age-based matrix model to the mayfly population. The results of the matrix population modeling corroborated the exponential growth model application in that both methods yielded an estimate of the population growth rate, r, in excess of 0.8 yr-1. This was the first evidence that mayfly populations are capable of recolonizing large aquatic ecosystems at rates comparable with those observed in much smaller lentic ecosystems. Our model predictions should prove valuable to managers of power plant facilities along the western basin in planning for mayfly emergences and to managers of the yellow perch (Perca flavescens) fishery in western Lake Erie.

  14. Habitat selection by two species of burrowing mayfly nymphs in the Les Cheneaux Islands region of northern Lake Huron

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blouin, Marc A.; Hudson, Patrick; Chriscinske, Margret

    2004-01-01

    This study focused primarily on the habitat preferences of Hexagenia limbata andEphemera simulans, two species prevalent in northern Lake Huron, to gain a better understanding of the key components that determined their distribution and abundance. Both species preferred habitats based upon depth and sediment type. In addition, the burrowing activity of H. limbata was examined using in-situ, underwater sampling techniques specifically designed for the study. SCUBA divers made resin casts and took clear sediment cores in order to study how the burrow densities of H. limbata related to the sediment: water volume ratios. H. limbata contributed to the bioturbation and sediment porosity in specific, fine-sediment habitats. Younger age classes of this species utilized the burrows of their larger cohorts, an adaptation that could allow for energy savings and optimized growth.

  15. Orofacial neuropathic pain reduces spontaneous burrowing behavior in rats.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deseure, K; Hans, G

    2018-07-01

    It was recently reported that spontaneous burrowing behavior is decreased after tibial nerve transection, spinal nerve transection and partial sciatic nerve ligation. It was proposed that spontaneous burrowing could be used as a measure of the impact of neuropathic pain after peripheral nerve injury. It has remained unclear whether the reduction in burrowing behavior is caused directly by pain or hypersensitivity in the affected limbs, making it more difficult to perform burrowing, or by a pain induced decrease in the general wellbeing, thus reducing the motivation to burrow. We studied burrowing behavior after infraorbital nerve injury, a model of orofacial neuropathic pain that does not affect the limbs. Burrowing behavior was significantly reduced after infraorbital nerve injury. Isolated face grooming and responsiveness to mechanical von Frey stimulation of the infraorbital nerve territory were significantly increased after infraorbital nerve injury, indicative, respectively, of spontaneous pain and mechanical allodynia. It is concluded that spontaneous burrowing may provide a measure of the global impact of pain on the animal's wellbeing after peripheral nerve injury and incorporation of this behavioral assay in preclinical drug testing may improve the predictive validity of currently used pain models. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. Burrow architecture of the Damaraland mole-rat ( Fukomys ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The burrow architecture (length, internal dimensions, fractal dimension of tunnel systems, number of nesting chambers and surface mounds) was investigated in the Damaraland mole-rat (Fukomys damarensis). A total of 31 animals were caught from five different colonies and their burrow systems were excavated in their ...

  17. Role of burrowing activities of the Great Basin pocket mouse (Perognathus parvus) in the dispersal of radionuclides on a decommissioned pond

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Landeen, D.S.; Mitchell, R.M.

    1982-08-01

    The intrusion of waste burial sites by animals is a common occurrence at nuclear waste facilities. This study identifies parameters associated with burrowing activities of the Great Basin Pocket Mouse at the Hanford Site in southeastern Washington. The objectives of the study were to: (1) document and compare burrow depths on a control site and a decommissioned radioactive waste pond and (2) document 137 Cs concentrations in pocket mice and the soil mounds created by their burrowing activities. Pocket mice burrowed deeper in the backfilled burial site (anti x = 72 cm) than they did in the control site (anti x = 38 cm). The small amounts of 137 Cs found in the mice were an order of magnitude below what was present in the mounds. This indicates that the burrowing habits of these mice and subsequent mound construction may be more important in terms of radionuclide dispersal than the small amounts contained within their bodies. The 137 Cs values reported in the mice and mounds are below Rockwell Hanford Operations (Rockwell) surface soil contamination limits. Information received from test plots will be used in formulating appropriate control mechanisms which may be deployed in the future. In the interim, surface stabilization efforts are being conducted on waste sites to control and deter burrowing animals

  18. Effects of pocket gopher burrowing on cesium-133 distribution on engineered test plots

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gonzales, G.J.; Saladen, M.T.; Hakonson, T.E.

    1995-01-01

    Very low levels of radionuclides exist on soil surfaces. Biological factors including vegetation and animal burrowing can influence the fate of these surface contaminants. Animal burrowing introduces variability in radionuclide migration that confounds estimation of nuclide migration pathways, risk assessment, and assessment of waste burial performance. A field study on the surface and subsurface erosional transport of surface-applied 133 Cs as affected by pocket gopher (Thomomys bottae) burrowing was conducted on simulated waste landfill caps at the Los Alamos National Laboratory in north central New Mexico. Surface loss of Cs, adhered to five soil particle size ranges, was measured several times over an 18-mo period while simulated rainfalls were in progress. Gophers reduced Cs surface loss by significant amounts, 43%. Cesium surface loss on plots with only gophers was 0.8 kg totalled for the study period. This compared with 1.4 kg for control plots, 0.5 kg for vegetated plots, and 0.2 kg for plots with both gophers and vegetation. The change in Cs surface loss over time was significant (P -1 ). Vegetation-bearing plots bad significant more total subsurface Cs (μ = 1.7 g kg -1 ) than plots without vegetation (μ = 0.8 g kg -1 ). An average of 97% of the subsurface Cs in plots with vegetation was located in the upper 15 cm of soil (SDR1 + SDR2) compared with 67% for plots without vegetation. Vegetation moderated the influence of gopher activity on the transport of Cs to soil subsurface, and stabilized subsurface Cs by concentrating it in the rhizosphere. Gopher activity may have caused Cs transport to depths below that sampled, 30 cm. The results provide distribution coefficients for models of contaminant migration where animal burrowing occurs. 35 refs., 2 figs., 3 tabs

  19. Incorporation of microplastics from litter into burrows of Lumbricus terrestris.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huerta Lwanga, Esperanza; Gertsen, Hennie; Gooren, Harm; Peters, Piet; Salánki, Tamás; van der Ploeg, Martine; Besseling, Ellen; Koelmans, Albert A; Geissen, Violette

    2017-01-01

    Pollution caused by plastic debris is an urgent environmental problem. Here, we assessed the effects of microplastics in the soil surface litter on the formation and characterization of burrows built by the anecic earthworm Lumbricus terrestris in soil and quantified the amount of microplastics that was transported and deposited in L. terrestris burrows. Worms were exposed to soil surface litter treatments containing microplastics (Low Density Polyethylene) for 2 weeks at concentrations of 0%, 7%, 28%, 45% and 60%. The latter representing environmentally realistic concentrations found in hot spot soil locations. There were significantly more burrows found when soil was exposed to the surface treatment composed of 7% microplastics than in all other treatments. The highest amount of organic matter in the walls of the burrows was observed after using the treatments containing 28 and 45% microplastics. The highest microplastic bioturbation efficiency ratio (total microplastics (mg) in burrow walls/initial total surface litter microplastics (mg)) was found using the concentration of 7% microplastics, where L. terrestris introduced 73.5% of the surface microplastics into the burrow walls. The highest burrow wall microplastic content per unit weight of soil (11.8 ± 4.8 g kg- 1 ) was found using a concentration of 60% microplastics. L. terrestris was responsible for size-selective downward transport when exposed to concentrations of 7, 28 and 45% microplastics in the surface litter, as the fraction ≤50 μm microplastics in burrow walls increased by 65% compared to this fraction in the original surface litter plastic. We conclude that the high biogenic incorporation rate of the small-fraction microplastics from surface litter into burrow walls causes a risk of leaching through preferential flow into groundwater bodies. Furthermore, this leaching may have implications for the subsequent availability of microplastics to terrestrial organisms or for the transport

  20. Using ground penetrating radar in levee assessment to detect small scale animal burrows

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chlaib, Hussein K.; Mahdi, Hanan; Al-Shukri, Haydar; Su, Mehmet M.; Catakli, Aycan; Abd, Najah

    2014-04-01

    Levees are civil engineering structures built to protect human lives, property, and agricultural lands during flood events. To keep these important structures in a safe condition, continuous monitoring must be performed regularly and thoroughly. Small rodent burrows are one of the major defects within levees; however, their early detection and repair helps in protecting levees during flooding events. A set of laboratory experiments was conducted to analyze the polarity change in GPR signals in the presence of subsurface voids and water-filled cavities. Ground Penetrating Radar (GPR) surveys using multi frequency antennas (400 MHz and 900 MHz) were conducted along an 875 meter section of the Lollie Levee near Conway, Arkansas, USA, to assess the levee's structural integrity. Many subsurface animal burrows, water-filled cavities, clay clasts, and metallic objects were investigated and identified. These anomalies were located at different depths and have different sizes. To ground truth the observations, hand dug trenches were excavated to confirm several anomalies. Results show an excellent match between GPR interpreted anomalies and the observed features. In-situ dielectric constant measurements were used to calculate the feature depths. The results of this research show that the 900 MHz antenna has more advantages over the 400 MHz antenna.

  1. Use of Artificial Burrows by Burrowing Owls (Athene cunicularia) at the HAMMER Facility on the U.S. Department of Energy Hanford Site

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Alexander, Amanda K.; Sackschewsky, Michael R.; Duberstein, Corey A.

    2005-09-30

    In 2003 the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) constructed an Emergency Vehicle Operations Course (EVOC) at the Hazardous Material Management and Emergency Response Training and Education Center (HAMMER) in the southern portion of the Hanford Site. Preliminary surveys during 2001 identified an active burrowing owl (Athene cunicularia) burrow and three burrowing owls within the proposed development area. Burrowing owls were classified as a federal species of concern, a Washington State ?candidate? species, a Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife priority species, and a Hanford Site Biological Resources Management Plan Level III resource. Therefore, the mitigation action plan for the project included the installation of twenty artificial burrows around EVOC in the spring of 2003. The mitigation plan established a success criterion of five percent annual use of the burrows by owls. In July 2005, a field survey of the EVOC burrow complex was conducted to determine use and demography at each site. Burrow locations were mapped and signs of activity (feces, owl tracks, castings, feathers) were recorded. Out of the twenty burrows, twelve were found to be active. Of the eight inactive burrows three appeared to have been active earlier in the 2005 breeding season. A total of nineteen owls were counted but demography could not be determined. It appears that the EVOC mitigation exceeded burrow use goals during 2005. Continued site monitoring and maintenance, according to mitigation plan guidelines should be conducted as prescribed.

  2. Plant cover effect on Bolson tortoise (Gopherus flavomarginatus Legler 1959, Testudinidae burrow use

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jorge Luis Becerra-López

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The Bolson tortoise, Gopherus flavomarginatus, occurs within a restricted geographical area in the Mexican Chihuahuan Desert. We analyzed the variation in surface microhabitat with relation to the burrow occupancy for this tortoise at the Mapimí Biosphere Reserve, Mexico. In summer 2010, we monitored burrow activity (active, inactive, or abandoned and measured environmental factors that might influence the burrow’s occupancy by tortoises (air temperature, relative humidity and substrate temperature, both inside and outside the burrow, and the plant cover around it. Discriminant analysis was used to identify the importance of these variables influencing burrow occupancy. Correlation and linear regression analyses were performed to quantify the relation between environmental factors in the sampled burrows. Results. Sixty-one burrows were identified at the Tortugas locality. The first function’s auto-value analysis indicates that this function explains 97.9% of the variation in burrow activity status; high occupancy scores were associated with low substrate temperature inside the burrow. Plant cover was inversely proportional to substrate temperature inside the burrow. These results suggest the importance the density of plants surrounding the tortoise’s burrow as a key factor influencing the burrow microclimate and occupancy by the tortoises. Conclusions. Gopherus flavomarginatus inhabits burrows, in part, based on microhabitat structure, with plant cover being a main factor influencing burrow occupancy. Our findings indicate that human land use and vegetation management are important for conserving Bolson tortoises, and for understanding habitat conditions necessary for the successful establishment of populations elsewhere.

  3. Exposure of burrowing mammals to {sup 222}Rn

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Beresford, N.A., E-mail: nab@ceh.ac.uk [NERC Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Lancaster Environment Centre, Library Av. Bailrigg, Lancaster LA1 4AP (United Kingdom); Barnett, C.L. [NERC Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Lancaster Environment Centre, Library Av. Bailrigg, Lancaster LA1 4AP (United Kingdom); Vives i Batlle, J. [Belgian Nuclear Research Centre (SCK-CEN), Boeretang 200, 2400 Mol (Belgium); Potter, E.D. [NERC Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Lancaster Environment Centre, Library Av. Bailrigg, Lancaster LA1 4AP (United Kingdom); Ibrahimi, Z.-F. [Health Protection Agency, Centre for Radiation, Chemical and Environmental Hazards, Chilton, Didcot OX11 0RQ (United Kingdom); Barlow, T.S.; Schieb, C.; Jones, D.G. [British Geological Survey, Environmental Science Centre, Keyworth, Nottingham NG12 5GG (United Kingdom); Copplestone, D. [School of Natural Sciences, University of Stirling, Stirling FK9 4LA (United Kingdom)

    2012-08-01

    Estimates of absorbed dose rates to wildlife from exposure to natural background radionuclides are required to put estimates of dose rates arising from regulated releases of radioactivity and proposed benchmarks into context. Recent review papers have estimated dose rates to wildlife from {sup 40}K, and {sup 238}U and {sup 232}Th series radionuclides. However, only one study previous has considered the potential dose rates to burrowing animals from inhaled {sup 222}Rn and its daughter products. In this paper we describe a study conducted at seven sites in northwest England. Passive track etch detectors were used to measure the {sup 222}Rn concentrations in artificial burrows over a period of approximately one year. Results suggest that absorbed dose rates to burrowing mammals as a consequence of exposure to {sup 222}Rn are likely to be at least an order of magnitude higher than those suggested in previous evaluations of natural background exposure rates which had omitted this radionuclide and exposure pathway. Dose rates in some areas of Great Britain will be considerably in excess of incremental no-effects benchmark dose rates suggested for use as screening levels. Such advised benchmark dose rates need to be better put into context with background dose rates, including exposure to {sup 222}Rn, to ensure credibility; although the context will be determined by the purpose of the benchmark and the assessment level. - Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Determined {sup 222}Rn concentrations in artificial burrows. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Estimated dose rates to burrowing mammals from inhaled {sup 222}Rn and daughter products. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer {sup 222}Rn likely to dominate exposure of burrowing mammals due to natural radionuclides.

  4. Ventilation of multi-entranced rodent burrows by boundary layer eddies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brickner-Braun, Inbal; Zucker-Milwerger, Daniel; Braun, Avi; Turner, J Scott; Pinshow, Berry; Berliner, Pedro

    2014-12-01

    Rodent burrows are often assumed to be environments wherein the air has a high concentration of CO₂. Although high burrow [CO₂] has been recorded, many studies report burrow [CO₂] that differs only slightly from atmospheric concentrations. Here, we advocate that one of the reasons for these differences is the penetration into burrows of air gusts (eddies), which originate in the turbulent boundary layer and prevent build-up of CO₂. We have characterized the means by which burrows of Sundevall's jird, which are representative of the burrows of many rodent species with more than one entrance, are ventilated. Our results demonstrate that, even at low wind speeds, the random penetration of eddies into a burrow through its openings is sufficient to keep the burrow [CO₂] low enough to be physiologically inconsequential, even in its deep and remote parts. © 2014. Published by The Company of Biologists Ltd.

  5. Modeling seasonal detection patterns for burrowing owl surveys

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quresh S. Latif; Kathleen D. Fleming; Cameron Barrows; John T. Rotenberry

    2012-01-01

    To guide monitoring of burrowing owls (Athene cunicularia) in the Coachella Valley, California, USA, we analyzed survey-method-specific seasonal variation in detectability. Point-based call-broadcast surveys yielded high early season detectability that then declined through time, whereas detectability on driving surveys increased through the season. Point surveys...

  6. Incorporation of microplastics from litter into burrows of Lumbricus terrestris

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Huerta Lwanga, Esperanza; Gertsen, H.F.; Gooren, H.; Peters, P.; Salanki, T.E.; Ploeg, van der M.; Besseling, E.; Koelmans, A.A.; Geissen, V.

    2017-01-01

    Pollution caused by plastic debris is an urgent environmental problem. Here, we assessed the effects of microplastics in the soil surface litter on the formation and characterization of burrows built by the anecic earthworm Lumbricus terrestris in soil and quantified the amount of microplastics that

  7. Burgess shale-type biotas were not entirely burrowed away

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gaines, Robert R.; Droser, Mary L.; Orr, Patrick J.

    2012-01-01

    environments is that soft-bodied biotas were literally burrowed away from the fossil record by increasing infaunal activity in muddy substrate environments; this would have affected geochemical gradients and increased the efficiency of organic matter recycling in sediments. New and recently published data...

  8. Daily and seasonal temperatures in the burrows of African rodent ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    1987-03-02

    Mar 2, 1987 ... temperature extremes, containing a nest and a bolt-hole. (Jarvis & Sale 1971; Davies & Jarvis 1986; Lovegrove &. Painting 1987). In the burrow systems of Cryptomys damarensis we have found nests as deep as 2,5 m below ground. Dissimilarities in ..... The live-trap in which it was confined was shaded ...

  9. Protozoal hepatitis in a western burrowing owl (Athene cunicularia hypugaea)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Franson, J. Christian

    2017-01-01

    A western burrowing owl (Athene cunicularia hypugaea) found dead in southern California had many light-colored lesions visible grossly on its liver, and histopathology revealed extensive necrosis throughout the hepatic parenchyma. Single-celled organisms were seen in clear spaces within the areas of necrosis. The owl was diagnosed with protozoal hepatitis.

  10. Oxygen penetration around burrows and roots in aquatic sediments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Meysman, Filip J.R.; Galaktionov, O.S.; Glud, Ronnie N.

    2010-01-01

    Diffusion is the dominant physical mechanism for the transfer of oxygen into fine-grained aquatic sediments. This diffusive uptake occurs at the sediment-water interface, but also at internal interfaces, such as along ventilated burrows or O2 releasing plant roots. Here, we present a systematic...

  11. An example of burrow system architecture of dispersing Damaraland ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The Damaraland mole-rat (Fukomys damarensis) is a social, subterranean rodent that occurs in the red Kalahari sands. This species exhibits extreme reproductive skew with a single breeding female whereas reproduction in subordinate group members is completely blocked. Rainfall, as it greatly facilitates burrowing, ...

  12. Seasonal effects on digging activity and burrow architecture in the ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Most polygynous male mammals exhibit little or no parental care or involvement raising young. Instead, they invest indirectly in their own morphological and physiological attributes which enhance their chance of reproduction. Such secondary morphological sex traits may contribute to differences in the burrow architecture ...

  13. Real estate ads in Emei music frog vocalizations: female preference for calls emanating from burrows.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cui, Jianguo; Tang, Yezhong; Narins, Peter M

    2012-06-23

    During female mate choice, both the male's phenotype and resources (e.g. his nest) contribute to the chooser's fitness. Animals other than humans are not known to advertise resource characteristics to potential mates through vocal communication; although in some species of anurans and birds, females do evaluate male qualities through vocal communication. Here, we demonstrate that calls of the male Emei music frog (Babina dauchina), vocalizing from male-built nests, reflect nest structure information that can be recognized by females. Inside-nest calls consisted of notes with energy concentrated at lower frequency ranges and longer note durations when compared with outside-nest calls. Centre frequencies and note durations of the inside calls positively correlate with the area of the burrow entrance and the depth of the burrow, respectively. When given a choice between outside and inside calls played back alternately, more than 70 per cent of the females (33/47) chose inside calls. These results demonstrate that males of this species faithfully advertise whether or not they possess a nest to potential mates by vocal communication, which probably facilitates optimal mate selection by females. These results revealed a novel function of advertisement calls, which is consistent with the wide variation in both call complexity and social behaviour within amphibians.

  14. Shrimp burrow in tropical seagrass meadows: An important sink for litter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vonk, Jan Arie; Kneer, Dominik; Stapel, Johan; Asmus, Harald

    2008-08-01

    The abundance, burrow characteristics, and in situ behaviour of the burrowing shrimps Neaxius acanthus (Decapoda: Strahlaxiidae) and Alpheus macellarius (Decapoda: Alpheidae) were studied to quantify the collection of seagrass material, to identify the fate of this collected material, and to determine the importance of these burrowing crustaceans in the nutrient (nitrogen and phosphorus) cycling of two tropical seagrass meadows on Bone Batang, South Sulawesi, Indonesia. Alpheus macellarius harvested 0.70 g dry weight (DW) burrow -1 d -1 seagrass material, dominantly by active cutting of fresh seagrass leaves. Neaxius acanthus collected 1.66 g DW burrow -1 d -1, mainly detached leaves which floated past the burrow opening. The A. macellarius and N. acanthus communities together collected in their burrows an amount of seagrass leaf material corresponding to more than 50% of the leaf production in the meadows studied. The crustacean species studied might therefore fulfil an important function in the nutrient cycling of tropical meadows. In the burrow most of the collected material is shredded into pieces. The burrows of both species had special chambers which serve as a storage for seagrass leaf material. Neaxius acanthus incorporated most of the material into the burrow wall lining, which is made of small sediment particles and macerated seagrass leaves. Phosphate concentrations measured in N. acanthus burrows compared with pore-water and water-column concentrations suggests that a substantial amount of the seagrass material undergoes decomposition in the burrows. Oxygen levels measured in these water bodies are indicative for a possible exchange of water between the burrow and its surroundings, most likely supported by the shrimps irrigating their burrows. By collecting leaf material in their burrows, nutrients that are otherwise lost from the seagrass meadow associated with detached leaves and leaf fragments carried away in the water column, are maintained in the

  15. Forecast Combinations

    OpenAIRE

    Timmermann, Allan G

    2005-01-01

    Forecast combinations have frequently been found in empirical studies to produce better forecasts on average than methods based on the ex-ante best individual forecasting model. Moreover, simple combinations that ignore correlations between forecast errors often dominate more refined combination schemes aimed at estimating the theoretically optimal combination weights. In this paper we analyse theoretically the factors that determine the advantages from combining forecasts (for example, the d...

  16. Forecast combinations

    OpenAIRE

    Aiolfi, Marco; Capistrán, Carlos; Timmermann, Allan

    2010-01-01

    We consider combinations of subjective survey forecasts and model-based forecasts from linear and non-linear univariate specifications as well as multivariate factor-augmented models. Empirical results suggest that a simple equal-weighted average of survey forecasts outperform the best model-based forecasts for a majority of macroeconomic variables and forecast horizons. Additional improvements can in some cases be gained by using a simple equal-weighted average of survey and model-based fore...

  17. Origin of tropical American burrowing reptiles by transatlantic rafting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vidal, Nicolas; Azvolinsky, Anna; Cruaud, Corinne; Hedges, S Blair

    2008-02-23

    Populations of terrestrial or freshwater taxa that are separated by oceans can be explained by either oceanic dispersal or fragmentation of a previously contiguous land mass. Amphisbaenians, the worm lizards (approx. 165 species), are small squamate reptiles that are uniquely adapted to a burrowing lifestyle and inhabit Africa, South America, Caribbean Islands, North America, Europe and the Middle East. All but a few species are limbless and they rarely leave their subterranean burrows. Given their peculiar habits, the distribution of amphisbaenians has been assumed to be primarily the result of two land-mass fragmentation events: the split of the supercontinent Pangaea starting 200 Myr ago, separating species on the northern land mass (Laurasia) from those on the southern land mass (Gondwana), and the split of South America from Africa 100 Myr ago. Here we show with molecular evidence that oceanic dispersal-on floating islands-played a more prominent role, and that amphisbaenians crossed the Atlantic Ocean in the Eocene (40 Myr ago) resulting in a tropical American radiation representing one-half of all known amphisbaenian species. Until now, only four or five transatlantic dispersal events were known in terrestrial vertebrates. Significantly, this is the first such dispersal event to involve a group that burrows, an unexpected lifestyle for an oceanic disperser.

  18. Mammalian mesocarnivore visitation at tortoise burrows in a wind farm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agha, Mickey; Smith, Amanda L.; Lovich, Jeffrey E.; Delaney, David F.; Ennen, Joshua R.; Briggs, Jessica R.; Fleckenstein, Leo J.; Tennant, Laura A.; Puffer, Shellie R.; Walde, Andrew D.; Arundel, Terry; Price, Steven J.; Todd, Brian D.

    2017-01-01

    There is little information on predator–prey interactions in wind energy landscapes in North America, especially among terrestrial vertebrates. Here, we evaluated how proximity to roads and wind turbines affect mesocarnivore visitation with desert tortoises (Gopherus agassizii) and their burrows in a wind energy landscape. In 2013, we placed motion-sensor cameras facing the entrances of 46 active desert tortoise burrows in a 5.2-km2 wind energy facility near Palm Springs, California, USA. Cameras recorded images of 35 species of reptiles, mammals, and birds. Counts for 4 species of mesocarnivores at desert tortoise burrows increased closer to dirt roads, and decreased closer to wind turbines. Our results suggest that anthropogenic infrastructure associated with wind energy facilities could influence the general behavior of mammalian predators and their prey. Further investigation of proximate mechanisms that underlie road and wind turbine effects (i.e., ground vibrations, sound emission, and traffic volume) and on wind energy facility spatial designs (i.e., road and wind turbine configuration) could prove useful for better understanding wildlife responses to wind energy development. © 2017 The Wildlife Society.

  19. Does petroleum development affect burrowing owl nocturnal space-use?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Scobie, Corey; Wellicome, Troy; Bayne, Erin [Department of Biological Sciences, University of Alberta (Canada)], email: cscobie@ualberta.ca, email: tiw@ualberta.ca, email: bayne@ualberta.ca

    2011-07-01

    Decline all over Canada in the population of burrowing owls, a federally listed endangered species, has raised concerns about the possible influence of petroleum infrastructure development on owl nocturnal space-use while foraging. Roads, wells, pipelines and sound-producing facilities related to petroleum development change the landscape and can influence the owls' mortality risk. For 3 years, 27 breeding adult male burrowing owls with nests close to different petroleum infrastructures were captured and fitted with a miniature GPS datalogger in order to track their nocturnal foraging. Data from these GPS devices were fed into a geographical information system and showed that pipelines and wells did not alter the foraging habits of the owls. Dirt and gravel roads, with little traffic, were preferentially selected by the owls, conceivably because of higher owl mortality risk along paved roads. Sound-producing facilities did not change owls' foraging behaviour, implying that sound may not affect their nocturnal space-use. Traffic data and sound power measurements will be used in further studies in an effort to better understand burrowing owls' nocturnal foraging habits.

  20. Artificial Crab Burrows Facilitate Desalting of Rooted Mangrove Sediment in a Microcosm Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nathalie Pülmanns

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Water uptake by mangrove trees can result in salt accumulation in sediment around roots, negatively influencing growth. Tidal pumping facilitates salt release and can be enhanced by crab burrows. Similarly, flushing of burrows by incoming tidal water decreases sediment salinity. In contrast to burrows with multiple entrances, the role of burrows with one opening for salinity reduction is largely unknown. In a microcosm experiment we studied the effect of artificial, burrow-like macro-pores with one opening on the desalting of mangrove sediment and growth of Rhizophora mangle L. seedlings. Sediment salinity, seedling leaf area and seedling growth were monitored over six months. Artificial burrows facilitated salt release from the sediment after six weeks, but seedling growth was not influenced. To test whether crab burrows with one opening facilitate salt release in mangrove forests, sediment salinities were measured in areas with and without R. mangle stilt roots in North Brazil at the beginning and end of the wet season. In addition, burrows of Ucides cordatus were counted. High crab burrow densities and sediment salinities were associated with stilt root occurrence. Precipitation and salt accumulation by tree roots seem to have a larger effect on sediment salinity than desalting by U. cordatus burrows.

  1. Large mammal burrows in late Miocene calcic paleosols from central Argentina: paleoenvironment, taphonomy and producers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    María Cristina Cardonatto

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Large cylindrical sediment-filled structures interpreted as mammal burrows occur within the loess-paleosol sequence of the late Miocene Cerro Azul Formation of central Argentina. A total of 115 burrow fills from three localities were measured. They are typically shallowly dipping, subcylindrical, unbranched structures with rounded ends and lacking enlargements. The horizontal diameter of the burrows range between 0.15 and 1.50 m, with most of the burrows in the interval of 0.39 to 0.98 m. Geometric morphometric analysis of transverse cross-sections support their distinct subcircular and elliptical (horizontally flattened shapes. Burrow fills are typically laminated in the lower part and massive in the upper part. The laminated intervals reflect pulses of flowing water entering the abandoned burrow during moderate rains, whereas massive intervals reflect mass flow input of dense sediment-water mixtures during heavy rains that produced sheet floods. Approximately 1% of the burrows contained fragmentary, disarticulated and weathered mammal bones that were introduced in the open burrow by currents along with other sedimentary particles. Analysis of the tetrapod burrow fossil record suggests that Miocene burrows, including those studied herein, reflect a remarkable increase in the average size of the fossorial fauna. We conclude that large late Miocene mammals dug burrows essentially as a shelter against environmental extremes and to escape predation. The simple architecture of the burrows suggests that the producers essentially foraged aboveground. Several mammal groups acquired fossorial habits in response to cold and seasonally dry climatic conditions that prevailed during the late Miocene in southern South America. The considerable range of horizontal diameters of the studied burrows can be attributed to a variety of producers, including dasypodids, the notoungulate Paedotherium minor, Glyptodontidae and Proscelidodon sp.

  2. Subsurface Sampling and Sensing Using Burrowing Moles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stoker, C. R.; Richter, L.; Smith, W. H.

    2004-01-01

    Finding evidence for life on Mars will likely require accessing the subsurface since the Martian surface is both hostile to life and to preservation of biosignatures due to the cold dry conditions, the strong W environment, and the presence of strong oxidants. Systems are needed to probe beneath the sun and oxidant baked surface of Mars and return samples to the surface for analysis or to bring the instrument sensing underground. Recognizing this need, the European Space Agency incorporated a small subsurface penetrometer or Mole onto the Beagle 2 Mars lander. Had the 2003 landing been successful, the Mole would have collected samples from 1-1.5 m depth and delivered them to an organic analysis instrument on the surface. The de- vice called the Planetary Underground Tool (PLUTO), also measured soil mechanical and thermophysical properties. Constrained by the small mass and volume allowance of the Beagle lander, the PLUTO mole was a slender cylinder only 2 cm diameter and 28 cm long equipped with a small sampling device designed to collect samples and bring them to the surface for analysis by other instrument. The mass of the entire system including deployment mechanism and tether was 1/2 kg. sensor package underground to make in situ measurements. The Mars Underground Mole (MUM) is a larger Mole based on the PLUTO design but incorporating light collection optics that interface to a fiber optic cable in the tether that transmits light to a combined stimulated emission Raman Spectrometer and Short Wave Infrared (SWIR) reflectance Spectrometer with sensitivity from 0.7 to 2.5 micrometers. This instrument is called the Dual Spectral Sensor and uses a Digital Array Scanning Interferometer as the sensor technology, a type of fourier transform interferometer that uses fixed element prisms and thus is highly rugged compared to a Michaelson interferometer. Due to the size limitations of an on-Mole instrument compartment, and the availability of a tether, the sensor head

  3. Forecasting Skill

    Science.gov (United States)

    1981-01-01

    for the third and fourth day precipitation forecasts. A marked improvement was shown for the consensus 24 hour precipitation forecast, and small... Zuckerberg (1980) found a small long term skill increase in forecasts of heavy snow events for nine eastern cities. Other National Weather Service...and maximum temperature) are each awarded marks 2, 1, or 0 according to whether the forecast is correct, 8 - *- -**■*- ———"—- - -■ t0m 1 MM—IB I

  4. Artificially evolved functional shell morphology of burrowing bivalves

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Germann, D. P.; Schatz, W.; Hotz, Peter Eggenberger

    2014-01-01

    dimensional (3D) objects, the first ever artificial evolution of a physical bivalve shell was performed. The result was a vertically flattened shell occupying only the top sediment layers. Insufficient control of the sediment was the major limitation of the setup and restricted the significance of the results......, there are almost no studies experimentally testing their dynamic properties. To investigate the functional morphology of the bivalve shell, we employed a synthetic methodology and built an experimental setup to simulate the burrowing process. Using an evolutionary algorithm and a printer that prints three...

  5. Artificially evolved functional shell morphology of burrowing bivalves

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Germann, D. P.; Schatz, W.; Hotz, Peter Eggenberger

    2014-01-01

    The morphological evolution of bivalves is documented by a rich fossil record. It is believed that the shell shape and surface sculpture play an important role for the burrowing performance of endobenthic species. While detailed morphometric studies of bivalve shells have been done...... dimensional (3D) objects, the first ever artificial evolution of a physical bivalve shell was performed. The result was a vertically flattened shell occupying only the top sediment layers. Insufficient control of the sediment was the major limitation of the setup and restricted the significance of the results...

  6. Load forecasting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mak, H.

    1995-01-01

    Slides used in a presentation at The Power of Change Conference in Vancouver, BC in April 1995 about the changing needs for load forecasting were presented. Technological innovations and population increase were said to be the prime driving forces behind the changing needs in load forecasting. Structural changes, market place changes, electricity supply planning changes, and changes in planning objectives were other factors discussed. It was concluded that load forecasting was a form of information gathering, that provided important market intelligence

  7. The vibrational signals that male fiddler crabs ( Uca lactea) use to attract females into their burrows

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takeshita, Fumio; Murai, Minoru

    2016-06-01

    In some fiddler crab species, males emit vibrations from their burrows to mate-searching females after they have attracted a female to the burrow entrance using a waving display. Although the vibrations are considered acoustic signals to induce mating, it has not been demonstrated whether the vibrations attract the females into the burrow and, consequently, influence females' mating decisions. We investigated the structures and patterns of the vibrations using a dummy female and demonstrated experimentally a female preference for male vibrations in Uca lactea in the field. The acoustic signals consisted of repetitions of pulses. The dominant frequency of the pulses decreased with male carapace width. The pulse length decreased slightly with an increasing number of vibrational repetitions, and the pulse interval increased with increasing repetitions. These factors imply that the vibrations convey information on male characteristics, such as body size and stamina. In the experiment on female mate choice, the females significantly preferred males with higher pulse repetition rates when they were positioned at the entrance of the burrow, indicating that the females use the male vibrational signals to decide whether to enter the burrow. However, females showed no preference for the vibrations once they were inside a burrow, i.e., whether they decided to copulate, suggesting that the vibrations do not independently affect a female's final decision of mate choice. The vibrations inside the burrow might influence a female's decision by interaction with other male traits such as the burrow structure.

  8. Aardvark burrows: a potential resource for animals in arid and semi ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Twenty-seven vertebrate species (21 mammals, two birds, three reptiles and one amphibian) were recorded making use of the burrows and it is likely that these species accrue benefits (e.g. a buffered microclimate) from burrow use. However, our sampling was biased towards mammals and nocturnal species. Consequently ...

  9. COMPARISON OF CARBON AND NITROGEN FLUXES IN TIDEFLAT FOOD WEBS DOMINATED BY BURROWING SHRIMP OR BY CULTURED OYSTERS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Two species of indigenous, thalassinid burrowing shrimps are pests to the benthic culture of Pacific oysters (Crassostrea gigas) because deposition of sediment excavated by the shrimps buries or smothers the oysters. Carbaryl pesticide is used to reduce burrowing shrimp densitie...

  10. Burrowing behavior as an indicator of post-laparotomy pain in mice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paulin Jirkof

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Detection of persistent pain of a mild-to-moderate degree in laboratory mice is difficult because mice do not show unambiguous symptoms of pain or suffering using standard methods of short-term observational or clinical monitoring. This study investigated the potential use of burrowing performance — a spontaneous and highly motivated behavior — as a measure of post-operative pain in laboratory mice. The influence of minor surgery on burrowing was investigated in adult C57BL/6J mice of both genders in a modified rodent burrowing test (displacement of food pellets from a pellet-filled tube within the animal’s home cage. Almost all (98% healthy mice burrowed (mean latency 1.3 h, SEM 0.5 h. After surgery without pain treatment, latency of burrowing was significantly prolonged (mean ∆ latency 10 h. Analgesic treatment using the anti-inflammatory drug carprofen (5 mg/kg bodyweight decreased latency of burrowing after surgery (mean ∆ latency 5.5 h to the level found in mice that had been anaesthetised (mean ∆ latency 5.3 h or had received anaesthesia and analgesia (mean ∆ latency 4.6 h. Analgesia during surgery was associated with a significantly earlier onset of burrowing compared to surgery without pain treatment. A distinct gradation in burrowing performance was found ranging from the undisturbed pre-operative status to the intermediate level following anaesthesia/analgesia and surgery with analgesia, to the pronounced prolongation of latency to burrow after surgery without pain relief. In conclusion, post-surgical impairment of general condition, probably mainly attributable to pain, can be conveniently assessed in laboratory mice on the basis of the burrowing test.

  11. Spilled oil and infaunal activity - Modification of burrowing behavior and redistribution of oil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clifton, H.E.; Kvenvolden, K.A.; Rapp, J.B.

    1984-01-01

    A series of experiments in Willapa Bay, Washington, indicates the degree to which the presence of spilled oil modifies the burrowing behavior of infauna and the extent to which the animals redistribute oil into intertidal sediment. Small amounts of North Slope crude oil introduced at low tide directly into burrow openings (mostly made by the crustacean Callianassa) resulted in a limited and temporary reduction in the number of burrow openings. In contrast, a layer of oil-saturated sand 1 cm thick buried about 5 cm below the sediment surface sharply reduced the number of burrow openings. After a year, the few new burrows penetrated only the margins of the experimental plot, and bioturbation below the buried oil-saturated sand layer declined dramatically. The experiments suggest that small amounts of oil temporarily stranded by tides in themselves have no long-range effect on burrowing behavior. The fauna, however, are capable of introducing measurable amounts of oil into the subsurface, where it is retained long after the rest of the stranded oil had washed away. A buried layer of oil-saturated sand greatly reduces infaunal activity; the oil presents an effective barrier that can persist for years. The oil incorporated into the sediment from burrow openings showed evidence of degradation after 7 months. In contrast the layer of buried oil remained essentially undergraded after a period of two years, even though oil in lower concentrations above the layer was degraded after a period of one year. This variation in degree of degradation of the buried oil, as well as the heterogeneity of oil distribution wherever the oil has been incorporated from the surface, emphasises the importance of careful sampling in any attempt to locate or monitor the presence of spilled oil in the substrate.In a series of experiments in Willapa Bay, Washington, small amounts of North Slope crude oil introduced at low tide directly into burrow openings resulted in a limited and temporary

  12. The influence of small mammal burrowing activity on water storage at the Hanford Site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Landeen, D.S.

    1994-09-01

    The amount and rate at which water may penetrate a protective barrier and come into contact with buried radioactive waste is a major concern. Because burrowing animals eventually will reside on the surface of any protective barrier, the effect these burrow systems may have on the loss or retention of water needs to be determined. The first section of this document summarizes the known literature relative to small mammals and the effects that burrowing activities have on water distribution, infiltration, and the overall impact of burrows on the ecosystem. Topics that are summarized include burrow air pressures, airflow, burrow humidity, microtopography, mounding, infiltration, climate, soil evaporation, and discussions of large pores relative to water distribution. The second section of this document provides the results of the study that was conducted at the Hanford Site to determine what effect small mammal burrows have on water storage. This Biointrusion task is identified in the Permanent Isolation Surface Barrier Development Plan in support of protective barriers. This particular animal intrusion task is one part of the overall animal intrusion task identified in Animal Intrusion Test Plan

  13. Large-Diameter Burrows of the Triassic Ischigualasto Basin, NW Argentina: Paleoecological and Paleoenvironmental Implications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colombi, Carina E.; Fernández, Eliana; Currie, Brian S.; Alcober, Oscar A.; Martínez, Ricardo; Correa, Gustavo

    2012-01-01

    Large-diameter ichnofossils comprising three morphotypes have been identified in the Upper Triassic Ischigualasto and Los Colorados formations of northwestern Argentina. These burrows add to the global record of the early appearance of fossorial behavior during early Mesozoic time. Morphotypes 1 and 2 are characterized by a network of tunnels and shafts that can be assigned to tetrapod burrows given similarities with previously described forms. However, differences in diameter, overall morphology, and stratigraphic occurrence allow their independent classification. Morphotype 3 forms a complex network of straight branches that intersect at oblique angles. Their calcareous composition and surface morphology indicate these structures have a composite biogenic origin likely developed due to combined plant/animal interactions. The association of Morphotypes 1 and 2 with fluvial overbank lithologies deposited under an extremely seasonal arid climate confirms interpretations that the early appearance of burrowing behavior was employed by vertebrates in response to both temperature and moisture-stress associated with seasonally or perpetually dry Pangean paleoclimates. Comparisons of burrow morphology and biomechanical attributes of the abundant paleovertebrate fauna preserved in both formations permit interpretations regarding the possible burrow architects for Morphotypes 1 and 2. In the case of the Morphotype 1, the burrow constructor could be one of the small carnivorous cynodonts, Ecteninion or Probelesodon. Assigning an architect for Morphotype 2 is more problematic due to mismatches between the observed burrow morphology and the size of the known Los Colorados vertebrates. PMID:23227195

  14. Synchrotron Reveals Early Triassic Odd Couple: Injured Amphibian and Aestivating Therapsid Share Burrow.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vincent Fernandez

    Full Text Available Fossorialism is a beneficial adaptation for brooding, predator avoidance and protection from extreme climate. The abundance of fossilised burrow casts from the Early Triassic of southern Africa is viewed as a behavioural response by many tetrapods to the harsh conditions following the Permo-Triassic mass-extinction event. However, scarcity of vertebrate remains associated with these burrows leaves many ecological questions unanswered. Synchrotron scanning of a lithified burrow cast from the Early Triassic of the Karoo unveiled a unique mixed-species association: an injured temnospondyl amphibian (Broomistega that sheltered in a burrow occupied by an aestivating therapsid (Thrinaxodon. The discovery of this rare rhinesuchid represents the first occurrence in the fossil record of a temnospondyl in a burrow. The amphibian skeleton shows signs of a crushing trauma with partially healed fractures on several consecutive ribs. The presence of a relatively large intruder in what is interpreted to be a Thrinaxodon burrow implies that the therapsid tolerated the amphibian's presence. Among possible explanations for such unlikely cohabitation, Thrinaxodon aestivation is most plausible, an interpretation supported by the numerous Thrinaxodon specimens fossilised in curled-up postures. Recent advances in synchrotron imaging have enabled visualization of the contents of burrow casts, thus providing a novel tool to elucidate not only anatomy but also ecology and biology of ancient tetrapods.

  15. Burrow characteristics and habitat associations of armadillos in Brazil and the United States of America

    OpenAIRE

    Colleen M. McDonough; Michael J. DeLaney; Phu Quoc Le; Mark S. Blackmore; W. J. Loughry

    2000-01-01

    We censused and measured armadillo burrows in ten 10 m x 40 m plots in each of four habitat types at a study site in northern Florida and one in the Atlantic coastal rainforest of Brazil. The nine-banded armadillo (Dasypus novemcinctus) was the only species of armadillo found in Florida, but several additional species were present in Brazil. Burrows were more numerous but smaller in Brazil than in the U. S., probably due to the inclusion of burrows dug by the smaller congener D. septemcinctus...

  16. Observations on burrowing rates and comments on host specificity in the endangered mussel Lampsilis higginsi

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sylvester, J.R.; Holland, L.E.; Kamer, T.K.

    1984-01-01

    In preliminary laboratory studies, the endangered mussel Lampsilis higginsi was unable to burrow into rocky substrates, but did burrow into substrates comprised of silt, clay, sand, and/or pebble-gravel. Burrowing times were shortest in silt and longest in pebble-gravel. As judged by longevity of glochidial infection, walleye (Stizostedion vitreum) and largemouth bass (Micropterus salmoides) may be suitable hosts for the parasitic stage. When glochidia were placed in water without host fish, half had died after 48 hours, and all had died after 72 hours. (DBO).

  17. Exposure Forecaster

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — The Exposure Forecaster Database (ExpoCastDB) is EPA's database for aggregating chemical exposure information and can be used to help with chemical exposure...

  18. Strategic Forecasting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Duus, Henrik Johannsen

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this article is to present an overview of the area of strategic forecasting and its research directions and to put forward some ideas for improving management decisions. Design/methodology/approach: This article is conceptual but also informed by the author’s long contact...... and collaboration with various business firms. It starts by presenting an overview of the area and argues that the area is as much a way of thinking as a toolbox of theories and methodologies. It then spells out a number of research directions and ideas for management. Findings: Strategic forecasting is seen...... as a rebirth of long range planning, albeit with new methods and theories. Firms should make the building of strategic forecasting capability a priority. Research limitations/implications: The article subdivides strategic forecasting into three research avenues and suggests avenues for further research efforts...

  19. Behavioural adaptations to moisture as an environmental constraint in a nocturnal burrow-inhabiting Kalahari detritivore Parastizopus armaticeps Peringuey (Coleoptera: Tenebrionidae

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O.A.E. Rasa

    1994-08-01

    Full Text Available The nocturnal desert detritivore Parastiz.opus armaticeps shows differences in surface activity patterns and burrow fidelity depending on surface humidity. After rain approximately half of the beetle population, independent of sex, is highly vagile and disperses over long distances. During drought, beetles are more sedentary and show higher burrow fidelity. They also inhabit burrows that are longer and deeper than non-inhabited ones, such burrows being relatively scarce. Burrow fidelity and the adoption of a more sedentary habit during drought are considered strategies to avoid the risks of not locating a suitable burrow before sunrise and subsequent desiccation in shallow burrows.

  20. Genetic characterization of the burrowing shrimp (Neotrypaea californiensis) in Washington and Oregon estuaries

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Ghost shrimp, (Neotrypaea californiensis) are burrowers, which have a wide demographic distribution along the United States Pacific Coast. Our study used genetic analysis to estimate the source populations of larvae recruiting into estuaries to allow a greater understanding ...

  1. Forecasting metal prices: Do forecasters herd?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pierdzioch, C.; Rulke, J. C.; Stadtmann, G.

    2013-01-01

    We analyze more than 20,000 forecasts of nine metal prices at four different forecast horizons. We document that forecasts are heterogeneous and report that anti-herding appears to be a source of this heterogeneity. Forecaster anti-herding reflects strategic interactions among forecasters...

  2. Burrow characteristics and habitat associations of armadillos in Brazil and the United States of America

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Colleen M. McDonough

    2000-03-01

    Full Text Available We censused and measured armadillo burrows in ten 10 m x 40 m plots in each of four habitat types at a study site in northern Florida and one in the Atlantic coastal rainforest of Brazil. The nine-banded armadillo (Dasypus novemcinctus was the only species of armadillo found in Florida, but several additional species were present in Brazil. Burrows were more numerous but smaller in Brazil than in the U. S., probably due to the inclusion of burrows dug by the smaller congener D. septemcinctus. In Brazil, burrows were larger and more numerous in swamp and forest habitats than in grassland or disturbed areas, suggesting that D. novemcinctus is found primarily in forests and swamps while D. septemcinctus is located in the other areas. This was supported by data from sightings of live animals. In Florida, burrows were more numerous in hardwood hammocks than in wetlands, fields or upland pine areas, but burrow dimensions did not vary across habitat types. In Florida, armadillos were seen more frequently than expected in hammocks and wetlands and less frequently than expected in fields and upland pine areas. There were also age (juvenile versus adult, sex, and yearly differences in habitat use in Florida. Biomass, abundance, and species diversity of terrestrial invertebrates did not vary significantly between habitat types in Florida, suggesting that habitat associations of armadillos were not influenced by prey availability.

  3. Burrow architecture, family composition and habitat characteristics of the largest social African mole-rat: the giant mole-rat constructs really giant burrow systems

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Šumbera, R.; Mazoch, V.; Patzenhauerová, Hana; Lövy, M.; Šklíba, J.; Bryja, Josef; Burda, H.

    2012-01-01

    Roč. 57, č. 2 (2012), s. 121-130 ISSN 0001-7051 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR IAA601410802 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z60930519 Keywords : Fukomys mechowii * subterranean rodent * burrow system * kin structure * Bathyergidae Subject RIV: EG - Zoology Impact factor: 0.949, year: 2012

  4. Under the weather?-The direct effects of climate warming on a threatened desert lizard are mediated by their activity phase and burrow system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, Danae; Stow, Adam; Kearney, Michael Ray

    2018-05-01

    For ectotherms such as lizards, the importance of behavioural thermoregulation in avoiding thermal extremes is well-established and is increasingly acknowledged in modern studies of climate warming and its impacts. Less appreciated and understood are the buffering roles of retreat sites and activity phase, in part because of logistical challenges of studying below-ground activity. Burrowing and nocturnal activity are key behavioural adaptations that have enabled a diverse range of reptiles to survive extreme environmental temperatures within hot desert regions. Yet, the direct impact of recent global warming on activity potential has been hypothesised to have caused extinctions in desert lizards, including the Australian arid zone skink Liopholis kintorei. We test the relevance of this hypothesis through a detailed characterisation of the above- and below-ground thermal and hydric microclimates available to, and used by, L. kintorei. We integrate operative temperatures with observed body temperatures to construct daily activity budgets, including the inference of subterranean behaviour. We then assess the likelihood that contemporary and future local extinctions in this species, and those of similar burrowing habits, could be explained by the direct effects of warming on its activity budget and exposure to thermal extremes. We found that L. kintorei spent only 4% of its time active on the surface, primarily at dusk, and that overall potential surface activity will be increased, not restricted, with climate warming. The burrow system provides an exceptional buffer to current and future maximum extremes of temperature (≈40°C reduction from potential surface temperatures), and desiccation (burrows near 100% humidity). Therefore, any climate warming impacts on this species are likely to be indirect. Our findings reflect the general buffering capacity of underground microclimates, therefore, our conclusions for L. kintorei are more generally applicable to

  5. Map-Based Repowering and Reorganization of a Wind Resource Area to Minimize Burrowing Owl and Other Bird Fatalities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lee Neher

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available Wind turbines in the Altamont Pass Wind Resource Area (Alameda/Contra Costa Counties, California, USA generate about 730 GWh of electricity annually, but have been killing thousands of birds each year, including >2,000 raptors and hundreds of burrowing owls. We have developed collision hazard maps and hazard ratings of wind turbines to guide relocation of existing wind turbines and careful repowering to modern turbines to reduce burrowing owl fatalities principally, and other birds secondarily. Burrowing owls selected burrow sites lower on slopes and on smaller, shallower slopes than represented by the average 10 × 10 m2 grid cell among 187,908 grid cells sampled from 2,281,169 grid cells comprising a digital elevation model (DEM of the study area. Fuzzy logic and discriminant function analysis produced likelihood surfaces encompassing most burrowing owl burrows within a fraction of the study area, and the former corresponded with burrowing owl fatalities and the latter with other raptor fatalities. Our ratings of wind turbine hazard were more predictive of burrowing owl fatalities, but would be more difficult to implement. Careful repowering to modern wind turbines would most reduce fatalities of burrowing owls and other birds while adding about 1,000 GWh annually toward California’s 33% Renewable Portfolio Standard.

  6. BURROW ARCHITECTURE OF RED GHOST CRAB OCYPODE MACROCERA (H. MILNE-EDWARDS, 1852) : A CASE STUDY IN INDIAN SUNDARBANS

    OpenAIRE

    Sourabh Kumar Dubey; Deep Chandan Chakraborty; Sudipta Chakraborty; Amalesh Choudhury

    2013-01-01

    A study on burrow architecture and burrow morphology of the red ghost crab (Ocypode macrocera) was carried out at the southern proximity of the Sagar island (21°37.973' N, to E 88° 04.195'), western sector of Indian Sundarbans that faces the regular tidal influences of Bay of Bengal. Ocypode macrocera constructs burrows that are highly species specific and used by single individual. Four types of burrow patterns were observed like ‘I’, ‘J’ ‘U’ and ‘semi-U’ type with different size...

  7. Map-based repowering and reorganization of a wind resource area to minimize burrowing owl and other bird fatalities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smallwood, K. S. [Research Ecologist, 3108 Finch Street, Davis, CA 95616 (United States); Neher, L. [Gis Specialist, Neher Consulting, 7241 34th Street, North Highlands, CA 95660 (United States); Bell, D. A. [East Bay Regional Park District, 2950 Peralta Oaks Court, Oakland, CA 94605-0381 (United States)

    2009-07-01

    Wind turbines in the Altamont Pass Wind Resource Area (Alameda/Contra Costa Counties, California, USA) generate about 730 GWh of electricity annually, but have been killing thousands of birds each year, including >2,000 raptors and hundreds of burrowing owls. We have developed collision hazard maps and hazard ratings of wind turbines to guide relocation of existing wind turbines and careful repowering to modern turbines to reduce burrowing owl fatalities principally, and other birds secondarily. Burrowing owls selected burrow sites lower on slopes and on smaller, shallower slopes than represented by the average 10 x 10 m{sup 2} grid cell among 187,908 grid cells sampled from 2,281,169 grid cells comprising a digital elevation model (DEM) of the study area. Fuzzy logic and discriminant function analysis produced likelihood surfaces encompassing most burrowing owl burrows within a fraction of the study area, and the former corresponded with burrowing owl fatalities and the latter with other raptor fatalities. Our ratings of wind turbine hazard were more predictive of burrowing owl fatalities, but would be more difficult to implement. Careful repowering to modern wind turbines would most reduce fatalities of burrowing owls and other birds while adding about 1,000 GWh annually toward California's 33% Renewable Portfolio Standard. (author)

  8. Burrowing inhibition by fine textured beach fill: Implications for recovery of beach ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Viola, Sloane M.; Hubbard, David M.; Dugan, Jenifer E.; Schooler, Nicholas K.

    2014-10-01

    Beach nourishment is often considered the most environmentally sound method of maintaining eroding shorelines. However, the ecological consequences are poorly understood. Fill activities cause intense disturbance and high mortality and have the potential to alter the diversity, abundance, and distribution of intertidal macroinvertebrates for months to years. Ecological recovery following fill activities depends on successful recolonization and recruitment of the entire sandy intertidal community. The use of incompatible sediments as fill material can strongly affect ecosystem recovery. We hypothesized that burrowing inhibition of intertidal animals by incompatible fine fill sediments contributes to ecological impacts and limits recovery in beach ecosystems. We experimentally investigated the influence of intertidal zone and burrowing mode on responses of beach invertebrates to altered sediment texture (28-38% fines), and ultimately the potential for colonization and recovery of beaches disturbed by beach filling. Using experimental trials in fill material and natural beach sand, we found that the mismatched fine fill sediments significantly inhibited burrowing of characteristic species from all intertidal zones, including sand crabs, clams, polychaetes, isopods, and talitrid amphipods. Burrowing performance of all five species we tested was consistently reduced in the fill material and burrowing was completely inhibited for several species. The threshold for burrowing inhibition by fine sediment content in middle and lower beach macroinvertebrates varied by species, with highest sensitivity for the polychaete (4% fines, below the USA regulatory limit of 10% fines), followed by sand crabs and clams (20% fines). These results suggest broader investigation of thresholds for burrowing inhibition in fine fill material is needed for beach animals. Burrowing inhibition caused by mismatched fill sediments exposes beach macroinvertebrates to stresses, which could depress

  9. Observations on the use of tarantula burrows by the anurans Leptodactylus bufonius (Leptodactylidae and Rhinella major (Bufonidae in the Dry Chaco ecoregion of Bolivia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christopher M. Schalk

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Some species of anurans have been observed utilizing burrows of other animals, such as rodents and tarantulas. Here we report the observations of two anuran species, Leptodactylus bufonius and Rhinella major, utilizing the burrows of tarantulas (Acanthoscurria sp.; Family Theraphosidae in the dry Chaco ecoregion of Bolivia. Both species of anurans never co-occurred with tarantulas in the burrows and used burrows that were wider in diameter and closer to breeding ponds as compared to the total available tarantula burrows in the area. These burrows may serve as refuges from predators, especially for conspicuous, calling males.

  10. Footprints in the sand: independent reduction of subdigital lamellae in the Namib–Kalahari burrowing geckos

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lamb, Trip; Bauer, Aaron M

    2005-01-01

    Many desert organisms exhibit convergence, and certain physical factors such as windblown sands have generated remarkably similar ecomorphs across divergent lineages. The burrowing geckos Colopus, Chondrodactylus and Palmatogecko occupy dune ecosystems in the Namib and Kalahari deserts of southwest Africa. Considered closely related, they share several putative synapomorphies, including reduced subdigital pads (toe pads) and spinose digital scales. Though recognized as part of Africa's ecologically diverse Pachydactylus Group, the burrowing geckos' precise phylogenetic affinities remain elusive. Convergent pedal modification provides a tenable alternative explaining the geckos' derived terrestriality and adaptation to Namib and Kalahari sands. We generated a molecular phylogeny for the Pachydactylus Group to examine evolutionary relationships among the burrowing geckos and infer historical patterns of pedal character change. Bayesian and parsimony analyses revealed all three burrowing genera to be deeply nested within Pachydactylus, each genus belonging to a separate clade. Strong support for these distinct clades indicates ecomorphological adaptations for burrowing have evolved independently three times in the southern Pachydactylus Group. We argue that the physical properties of Namib and Kalahari sands played a principal role in selecting for pedal similarity. PMID:16618680

  11. Footprints in the sand: independent reduction of subdigital lamellae in the Namib-Kalahari burrowing geckos.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lamb, Trip; Bauer, Aaron M

    2006-04-07

    Many desert organisms exhibit convergence, and certain physical factors such as windblown sands have generated remarkably similar ecomorphs across divergent lineages. The burrowing geckos Colopus, Chondrodactylus and Palmatogecko occupy dune ecosystems in the Namib and Kalahari deserts of southwest Africa. Considered closely related, they share several putative synapomorphies, including reduced subdigital pads (toe pads) and spinose digital scales. Though recognized as part of Africa's ecologically diverse Pachydactylus Group, the burrowing geckos' precise phylogenetic affinities remain elusive. Convergent pedal modification provides a tenable alternative explaining the geckos' derived terrestriality and adaptation to Namib and Kalahari sands. We generated a molecular phylogeny for the Pachydactylus Group to examine evolutionary relationships among the burrowing geckos and infer historical patterns of pedal character change. Bayesian and parsimony analyses revealed all three burrowing genera to be deeply nested within Pachydactylus, each genus belonging to a separate clade. Strong support for these distinct clades indicates ecomorphological adaptations for burrowing have evolved independently three times in the southern Pachydactylus Group. We argue that the physical properties of Namib and Kalahari sands played a principal role in selecting for pedal similarity.

  12. Burrow ventilation and associated porewater irrigation by the polychaete Marenzelleria viridis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Quintana, Cintia Organo; Hansen, Torben; Delefosse, Matthieu

    2011-01-01

    presented muscular pumping in time averaged rates of 0.15 ml min−1. Oxygen needle electrodes positioned above the burrow openings revealed that muscular undulation of the worm body pumps anoxic water out of the burrow. On the other hand, microscope observations of the animal showed that ventilation...... be about 0.16 ml min−1. Since the cilia pumping into the burrow occurs in periods of 24±12 min and at 50–70% of the measured time, considerable amounts of water from deeper sediments may percolate upwards to the sediment surface. This water is rich in reduced compounds and nutrients and may have important...

  13. Influence of vegetation on the nocturnal foraging behaviors and vertebrate prey capture by endangered Burrowing Owls

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alan Marsh

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Restrictions in technology have limited past habitat selection studies for many species to the home-range level, as a finer-scale understanding was often not possible. Consequently, these studies may not identify the true mechanism driving habitat selection patterns, which may influence how such results are applied in conservation. We used GPS dataloggers with digital video recorders to identify foraging modes and locations in which endangered Burrowing Owls (Athene cunicularia captured prey. We measured the coarse and fine-scale characteristics of vegetation at locations in which owls searched for, versus where they caught, vertebrate prey. Most prey items were caught using hover-hunting. Burrowing Owls searched for, and caught, vertebrate prey in all cover types, but were more likely to kill prey in areas with sparse and less dense vegetative cover. Management strategies designed to increase Burrowing Owl foraging success in the Canadian prairies should try to ensure a mosaic of vegetation heights across cover types.

  14. Breeding-season food habits of burrowing owls (Athene cunicularia) in southwestern Dominican Republic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wiley, J.W.

    1998-01-01

    Diet data from 20 Burrowing Owl (Athene cunicularia) nests were collected in southwestern Dominican Republic in 1976, 1982, and 1996. Invertebrates (53.3%) comprised the most numerous prey items (N = 396) delivered to nests by adult owls, but vertebrates (46.7%) were much better represented than in other studies of Burrowing Owl diet. Among vertebrates, birds (28.3% of all items) and reptiles (14.9%) were most important, whereas mammals (1.0%) and amphibians (2.5%) were less commonly delivered to nests. Vertebrates, however, comprised more than twice (69.2%) of the total biomass as invertebrates (30.8%), with birds (50.4%) and reptiles (12.8%) the most important of the vertebrate prey classes. A positive relationship was observed between bird species abundance and number of individuals taken as prey by Burrowing Owls.

  15. Belted kingfishers: Under surveillance and sampled in the privacy of their own burrow

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baron, L.A.; Ashwood, T.L.

    1995-01-01

    The belted kingfisher, a common piscivore of the Oak Ridge Reservation (ORR), bioaccumulates contaminants from consumption of aquatic prey. Three kingfisher carcasses found near contaminated streams on the ORR were analyzed. Mercury, cadmium, and selenium bioaccumulated within the liver, kidney, and feathers. Additionally, PCB-1254 accumulated in muscle and lipid tissue, while Cesium-137 accumulated within the muscle and whole body. These contaminant levels have been shown to produce a variety of toxicological effects (i.e., reproductive impairment, central nervous system dysfunction) within other species of birds. In addition to use of this data for ecological risk assessment, kingfishers can also be monitored as a viable bioindicator species reflecting environmental contaminant levels over time. However, current sampling methods of burrow excavation or the use of mist nets can be detrimental to the reproductive success of the birds. The authors present a method for obtaining adequate samples of feathers and other remnants (i.e., egg shells, dried regurgitant) found in the burrow during or following the nesting season. The collection of samples following surveillance of the burrow and its contents was performed with the use of a 15 ft-long flexible, portable probe containing a video camera. Once sighted with the probe, contents of the burrow were collected by insertion of an additional tube attached to a hand held vacuum cleaner (Dirt Devil reg-sign). Feathers collected from a nest at an uncontaminated site contained selenium, lead and mercury. Cesium-137 was found in an egg shell collected from a nest at a radiologically contaminated site. Close-up photos of a kingfisher mother incubating her eggs and nestlings within two burrows will also be shown. This surveillance and sampling technique can also be used for monitoring other burrowing terrestrial species

  16. Pisodonophis boro (ophichthidae: anguilliformes): specialization for head-first and tail-first burrowing?

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Schepper, Natalie; De Kegel, Barbara; Adriaens, Dominique

    2007-02-01

    The rice paddy eel, Pisodonophis boro (P. boro), is of special interest because of its peculiar burrowing habits. P. boro penetrates the substrate tail-first, a technique common for ophichthids, but it is able to burrow head-first as well. P. boro exhibits three feeding modes: inertial feeding, grasping, and spinning. Rotational feeding is a highly specialized feeding mode, adopted by several elongate, aquatic vertebrates and it is likely that some morphological modifications are related to this feeding mode. The detailed morphology of the head and tail of P. boro is examined with the goal to apportion the anatomical specializations among head-first burrowing, tail-first burrowing, and rotational feeding. The reduced eyes, covered with thick corneas may be beneficial for protection during head-first burrowing, but at the same time decreased visual acuity may have an impact on other sensory systems (e.g. cephalic lateral line system). The elongated and pointed shape of the skull is beneficial for substrate penetration. The cranial bones and their joints, which are fortified, are advantageous for resisting high mechanical loads during head-first burrowing. The aponeurotic connection between epaxial and jaw muscles is considered beneficial for transferring these forces from the body to the head during rotational feeding. Hypertrophied jaw muscles facilitate a powerful bite, which is required to hold prey during spinning movements and variability in the fiber angles of subdivisions of jaw muscles may be beneficial for preventing the lower jaw from being dislodged or opened. Furthermore, firm upper (premaxillo-ethmovomerine complex) and lower jaws (with robust coronoid processes) and high neurocranial rigidity are advantageous for a solid grip to hold prey during rotational feeding. The pointed shape of the tail and the consolidated caudal skeleton are beneficial for their tail-first burrowing habits. It is quite likely that the reduction of the caudal musculature is

  17. Variations in the Foraging Behaviour and Burrow Structures of the Damara Molerat Cryptomys damarensis in the Kalahari Gemsbok National Park

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B.G. Lovegrove

    1987-10-01

    Full Text Available Aspects of two habitat-specific foraging behaviours of the social subterranean rodent Cryptomys damarensis, are discussed in terms of burrow structure, resource dispersion patterns, sand moisture content, burrow temperature regimes, and predatory pressures, in the Kalahari Gemsbok National Park, South Africa.

  18. Non-Native Suckermouth Armored Catfishes in Florida: Description of Nest Borrows and Burrow Colonies with Assessment of Shoreline Conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-04-01

    clubhouses and other residences with boat docks, and a mix of other land uses. Most waterway reaches surveyed were located in rural or low-density...were excavated to obtain in- formation on burrow dimensions. In contrast to what Grier (1980) had described for Hypostomus burrows in Florida, Devick

  19. Detecting plague-host abundance from space: Using a spectral vegetation index to identify occupancy of great gerbil burrows

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wilschut, Liesbeth I.; Heesterbeek, Johan A.P.; Begon, Mike; de Jong, Steven M.; Ageyev, Vladimir; Laudisoit, Anne; Addink, Elisabeth A.

    2018-01-01

    In Kazakhstan, plague outbreaks occur when its main host, the great gerbil, exceeds an abundance threshold. These live in family groups in burrows, which can be mapped using remote sensing. Occupancy (percentage of burrows occupied) is a good proxy for abundance and hence the possibility of an

  20. Detecting plague-host abundance from space: Using a spectral vegetation index to identify occupancy of great gerbil burrows

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilschut, Liesbeth I.; Heesterbeek, Johan A. P.; Begon, Mike; de Jong, Steven M.; Ageyev, Vladimir; Laudisoit, Anne; Addink, Elisabeth A.

    2018-02-01

    In Kazakhstan, plague outbreaks occur when its main host, the great gerbil, exceeds an abundance threshold. These live in family groups in burrows, which can be mapped using remote sensing. Occupancy (percentage of burrows occupied) is a good proxy for abundance and hence the possibility of an outbreak. Here we use time series of satellite images to estimate occupancy remotely. In April and September 2013, 872 burrows were identified in the field as either occupied or empty. For satellite images acquired between April and August, 'burrow objects' were identified and matched to the field burrows. The burrow objects were represented by 25 different polygon types, then classified (using a majority vote from 10 Random Forests) as occupied or empty, using Normalized Difference Vegetation Indices (NDVI) calculated for all images. Throughout the season NDVI values were higher for empty than for occupied burrows. Occupancy status of individual burrows that were continuously occupied or empty, was classified with producer's and user's accuracy values of 63 and 64% for the optimum polygon. Occupancy level was predicted very well and differed 2% from the observed occupancy. This establishes firmly the principle that occupancy can be estimated using satellite images with the potential to predict plague outbreaks over extensive areas with much greater ease and accuracy than previously.

  1. Current status, distribution, and conservation of the Burrowing Owl (Speotyto cunicularia) in midwestern and western North America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steven R. Sheffield

    1997-01-01

    The Burrowing Owl (Speotyto cunicularia) inhabits open prairie grassland habitat in the midwestern and western US and Canada. For several years now, numbers of this species in North America have been declining at an alarming rate. Currently, Burrowing Owls are listed as endangered in Canada and threatened in Mexico. In the United States, the...

  2. Nelson's big horn sheep (Ovis canadensis nelsoni) trample Agassiz's desert tortoise (Gopherus agassizii) burrow at a California wind energy facility

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agha, Mickey; Delaney, David F.; Lovich, Jeffrey E.; Briggs, Jessica; Austin, Meaghan; Price, Steven J.

    2015-01-01

    Research on interactions between Agassiz's desert tortoises (Gopherus agassizii) and ungulates has focused exclusively on the effects of livestock grazing on tortoises and their habitat (Oldemeyer, 1994). For example, during a 1980 study in San Bernardino County, California, 164 desert tortoise burrows were assessed for vulnerability to trampling by domestic sheep (Ovis aries). Herds of grazing sheep damaged 10% and destroyed 4% of the burrows (Nicholson and Humphreys 1981). In addition, a juvenile desert tortoise was trapped and an adult male was blocked from entering a burrow due to trampling by domestic sheep. Another study found that domestic cattle (Bos taurus) trampled active desert tortoise burrows and vegetation surrounding burrows (Avery and Neibergs 1997). Trampling also has negative impacts on diversity of vegetation and intershrub soil crusts in the desert southwest (Webb and Stielstra 1979). Trampling of important food plants and overgrazing has the potential to create competition between desert tortoises and domestic livestock (Berry 1978; Coombs 1979; Webb and Stielstra 1979).

  3. kosh Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  4. kpdt Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  5. kewr Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  6. kiso Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  7. kpga Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

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  18. kbil Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  19. krfd Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  20. kdug Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  1. ktix Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  2. kcod Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  3. kslk Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  4. kgfl Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  5. kguc Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  6. kmlu Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  7. kbff Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  8. ksmn Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  9. kdro Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  10. kmce Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  11. ktpa Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  12. kmot Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  13. kcre Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  14. klws Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  15. kotm Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  16. khqm Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  17. kabr Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  18. klal Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  19. kelp Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  20. kecg Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  1. khbg Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  2. kpbf Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  3. konp Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  4. pkwa Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  5. ktvf Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  6. paga Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  7. khks Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  8. kdsm Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  9. kpsm Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  10. kgrb Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  11. kgmu Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  12. papg Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  13. kbgm Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  14. pamc Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  15. klrd Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  16. ksan Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  17. patk Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  18. kowb Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  19. klru Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  20. kfxe Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  1. kjct Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  2. kcrg Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  3. paaq Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  4. kaex Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  5. klbx Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  6. kmia Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  7. kpit Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  8. kcrw Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  9. paen Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  10. kast Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  11. kuin Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  12. kmht Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  13. kcys Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  14. kflo Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  15. pakn Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  16. pabt Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  17. krdg Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  18. khdn Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  19. kjac Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  20. kphx Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  1. Robust forecast comparison

    OpenAIRE

    Jin, Sainan; Corradi, Valentina; Swanson, Norman

    2015-01-01

    Forecast accuracy is typically measured in terms of a given loss function. However, as a consequence of the use of misspecified models in multiple model comparisons, relative forecast rankings are loss function dependent. This paper addresses this issue by using a novel criterion for forecast evaluation which is based on the entire distribution of forecast errors. We introduce the concepts of general-loss (GL) forecast superiority and convex-loss (CL) forecast superiority, and we establish a ...

  2. Lizard burrows provide thermal refugia for larks in the Arabian desert

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Williams, JB; Tieleman, BI; Shobrak, M

    A common perception is that desert birds experience greater extremes of heat and aridity than their mammalian counterparts, in part, because birds do not use burrows as a refuge from the desert environment. We report observations of Dunn's Larks (Eremalauda dunni), Bar-tailed Desert Larks (Ammomanes

  3. Strong population genetic structure and larval dispersal capability of the burrowing ghost shrimp (Neotrypaea californiensis)

    Science.gov (United States)

    The burrowing ghost shrimp, Neotrypaea californiensis, is a vital member of the estuarine benthic community. Dense populations of shrimp are found in the major estuaries of Washington and Oregon. Our study determines the genetic structure of shrimp populations in order to gain ...

  4. Burrowing Behavior of a Deposit Feeding Bivalve Predicts Change in Intertidal Ecosystem State

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Compton, T.J.; Bodnar, W.; Koolhaas, A.; Dekinga, A.; Holthuijsen, S.; Ten Horn, J.; McSweeney, N.; van Gils, J.A.; Piersma, T.

    2016-01-01

    Behavior has a predictive power that is often underutilized as a tool for signaling ecological change. The burrowing behavior of the deposit feeding bivalve Macoma balthica reflects a typical food-safety trade-off. The choice to live close to the sediment surface comes at a risk of predation and is

  5. Burrowing behavior of a deposit feeding bivalve predicts change in intertidal ecosystem state

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Compton, Tanya J.; Bodnar, Wanda; Koolhaas, Anita; Dekinga, Anne; Holthuijsen, Sander; ten Horn, Job; McSweeney, Niamh; van Gils, Jan; Piersma, Theunis

    2016-01-01

    Behavior has a predictive power that is often underutilized as a tool for signaling ecological change. The burrowing behavior of the deposit feeding bivalve Macoma balthica reflects a typical food-safety trade-off. The choice to live close to the sediment surface comes at a risk of predation and is

  6. Burrowing herbivores alter soil carbon and nitrogen dynamics in a semi-arid ecosystem, Argentina

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kenneth L. Clark; Lyn C. Branch; Jose L. Hierro; Diego Villarreal

    2016-01-01

    Activities of burrowing herbivores, including movement of soil and litter and deposition of waste material, can alter the distribution of labile carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) in soil, affecting spatial patterning of nutrient dynamics in ecosystems where they are abundant. Their role in ecosystem processes in surface soil has been studied extensively, but effects of...

  7. Burrowing and avoidance behaviour in marine organisms exposed to pesticide-contaminated sediment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møhlenberg, Flemming; Kiørboe, Thomas

    1983-01-01

    Behavioural effects of marine sediment contaminated with pesticides (6000 ppm parathion, 200 ppm methyl parathion, 200 ppm malathion) were studied in a number of marine organisms in laboratory tests and in situ. The burrowing behaviour in Macoma baltica, Cerastoderma edule, Abra alba, Nereis...

  8. Living in a ``stethoscope'': burrow-acoustics promote auditory specializations in subterranean rodents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lange, Simone; Burda, Hynek; Wegner, Regina E.; Dammann, Philip; Begall, Sabine; Kawalika, Mathias

    2007-02-01

    Subterranean mammals rely to a great extent on audition for communication and to be alerted to danger. The only hitherto published report on burrow acoustics revealed that in tunnels of blind mole-rats ( Spalax ehrenbergi), airborne sounds of 440 Hz propagated best whereas lower and higher frequencies were effectively attenuated. Morpho-functional analyses classify the ear of subterranean mammals as a low-sensitivity and low-frequency device. Concordantly, hearing is characterized by low sensitivity and a restricted frequency range tuned to low frequencies (0.5-4 kHz). Some authors considered the restricted hearing in subterranean mammals vestigial and degenerate due to under-stimulation. In contrast to this view stand a rich (mostly low-frequency) vocal repertoire and progressive structural specializations of the middle and inner ear. Thus, other authors considered these hearing characteristics adaptive. To test the hypothesis that acoustical environment in burrows of different species of subterranean mammals is similar, we measured sound attenuation in burrows of Fukomys mole-rats (formerly known as Cryptomys, cf. Kock et al. 2006) of two differently sized species at different locations in Zambia. We show that in these burrows, low-frequency sounds (200-800 Hz) are not only least attenuated but also their amplitude may be amplified like in a stethoscope (up to two times over 1 m). We suggest that hearing sensitivity has decreased during evolution of subterranean mammals to avoid over-stimulation of the ear in their natural environment.

  9. Organic matter composition and the protist and nematode communities around anecic earthworm burrows

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Andriuzzi, Walter S.; Ngo, Phuong-Thi; Geisen, Stefan; Keith, Aidan M.; Dumack, Kenneth; Bolger, Thomas; Bonkowski, Michael; Brussaard, Lijbert; Faber, Jack H.; Chabbi, Abad; Rumpel, Cornelia; Schmidt, Olaf

    2016-01-01

    By living in permanent burrows and incorporating organic detritus from the soil surface, anecic earthworms contribute to soil heterogeneity, but their impact is still under-studied in natural field conditions. We investigated the effects of the anecic earthworm Lumbricus centralis on fresh carbon

  10. Development of earthworm burrow systems and the influence of earthworms on soil hydrology

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ligthart, T.N.

    1996-01-01


    Inoculation of earthworms can help to restore or ameliorate land qualities. Earthworms create burrows and alter the structure of the soil matrix, which influence the water infiltration, drainage, water retention and the aeration of the soil. The way and rate of the development of

  11. Forecaster Behaviour and Bias in Macroeconomic Forecasts

    OpenAIRE

    Roy Batchelor

    2007-01-01

    This paper documents the presence of systematic bias in the real GDP and inflation forecasts of private sector forecasters in the G7 economies in the years 1990–2005. The data come from the monthly Consensus Economics forecasting service, and bias is measured and tested for significance using parametric fixed effect panel regressions and nonparametric tests on accuracy ranks. We examine patterns across countries and forecasters to establish whether the bias reflects the inefficient use of i...

  12. Weather forecast

    CERN Document Server

    Courtier, P

    1994-02-07

    Weather prediction is performed using the numerical model of the atmosphere evolution.The evolution equations are derived from the Navier Stokes equation for the adiabatic part but the are very much complicated by the change of phase of water, the radiation porocess and the boundary layer.The technique used operationally is described. Weather prediction is an initial value problem and accurate initial conditions need to be specified. Due to the small number of observations available (105 ) as compared to the dimension of the model state variable (107),the problem is largely underdetermined. Techniques of optimal control and inverse problems are used and have been adapted to the large dimension of our problem. our problem.The at mosphere is a chaotic system; the implication for weather prediction is discussed. Ensemble prediction is used operationally and the technique for generating initial conditions which lead to a numerical divergence of the subsequent forecasts is described.

  13. Effect of mangrove restoration on crab burrow density in Luoyangjiang Estuary, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei Li

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Background Mangrove restoration seeks to restore or rebuild degraded mangrove systems. The methods of mangrove restoration include ecological projects and restoration-oriented technologies, the latter of which are designed to restore the structure, processes as well as related physical, chemical and biological characteristics of wetlands and to ensure the provision of ecosystem services. As important components of mangrove ecosystem, benthic organisms and crabs play a key role in nutrient cycling. In addition, mangrove restoration, such as vegetation restoration measures, can lead to changes in the benthic faunal communities. This study investigates whether the presence of different mangrove species, age and canopy cover of mangrove communities affect the density of crab burrows. Methods The Luoyangjiang Estuary, in the southeast of Fujian Province, was selected as our research area. A survey, covering 14 sites, was conducted to investigate the impacts of mangrove restoration on the density of crab burrows in four rehabilitated forests with different stand ages and canopy. Results It was found that differences in vegetation types had a large impact on crab density and that the density of crab burrows was lower on exposed beaches (non-mangrove than under mature Kandelia candel, Aegiceras corniculatum and Avicennia marina communities. In general, the amount of leaf litter and debris on mangrove mudflats was greater than on the beaches as food sources for crabs. Two-factor analysis of variance (ANOVA shows that changes in mangrove species and age since restoration had different effects on crab burrow density. The effect of canopy cover was highly significant on crab burrow density. Conclusions The results suggest that in the process of mangrove restoration the combined effects of mangrove stand age, canopy cover and other factors should be taken into account. This study further supports the findings of the future scientific research and practice on

  14. Burrowing with a kinetic snout in a snake (Elapidae: Aspidelaps scutatus).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deufel, Alexandra

    2017-12-01

    Of the few elongate, fossorial vertebrates that have been examined for their burrowing mechanics, all were found to use an akinetic, reinforced skull to push into the soil, powered mostly by trunk muscles. Reinforced skulls were considered essential for head-first burrowing. In contrast, I found that the skull of the fossorial shield-nosed cobra (Aspidelaps scutatus) is not reinforced and retains the kinetic potential typical of many non-fossorial snakes. Aspidelaps scutatus burrows using a greatly enlarged rostral scale that is attached to a kinetic snout that is independently mobile with respect to the rest of the skull. Two mechanisms of burrowing are used: (1) anteriorly directed head thrusts from a loosely bent body that is anchored against the walls of the tunnel by friction, and (2) side-to-side shovelling using the head and rostral scale. The premaxilla, to which the rostral scale is attached, lacks any direct muscle attachments. Rostral scale movements are powered by, first, retractions of the palato-pterygoid bar, mediated by a ligament that connects the anterior end of the palatine to the transverse process of the premaxilla and, second, by contraction of a previously undescribed muscle slip of the m. retractor pterygoidei that inserts on the skin at the edge of the rostral scale. In derived snakes, palatomaxillary movements are highly conserved and power prey capture and transport behaviors. Aspidelaps scutatus has co-opted those mechanisms for the unrelated function of burrowing without compromising the original feeding functions, showing the potential for evolution of functional innovations in highly conserved systems. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  15. No pain, no gain: Male plasticity in burrow digging according to female rejection in a sand-dwelling wolf spider.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carballo, Matilde; Baldenegro, Fabiana; Bollatti, Fedra; Peretti, Alfredo V; Aisenberg, Anita

    2017-07-01

    Behavioral plasticity allows individuals to reversibly respond to short-term variations in their ecological and social environment in order to maximize their fitness. Allocosa senex is a burrow-digging spider that inhabits the sandy coasts of South America. This species shows a reversal in typical sex roles expected in spiders: females are wanderers that visit males at their burrows and initiate courtship. They prefer males with long burrows for mating, and males prefer virgin over mated females. We tested whether female sexual rejection induced males to enlarge their burrows and if female reproductive status affected males' responses. We exposed males who had constructed burrows to: a) virgin females or b) mated females, (n=16 for each category). If female rejection occurred, we repeated the trial 48h later with the same female. As control, we maintained a group of males without female exposure (unexposed group, n=32). Rejected males enlarged their burrows more frequently and burrows were longer compared to unexposed males. However, frequency and length of enlargement did not differ according to female reproductive status. Males of A. senex showed plasticity in digging behavior in response to the availability of females, as a way to maximize the possibilities of future mating. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  16. BURROW ARCHITECTURE OF RED GHOST CRAB OCYPODE MACROCERA (H. MILNE-EDWARDS, 1852 : A CASE STUDY IN INDIAN SUNDARBANS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sourabh Kumar Dubey

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available A study on burrow architecture and burrow morphology of the red ghost crab (Ocypode macrocera was carried out at the southern proximity of the Sagar island (21°37.973' N, to E 88° 04.195', western sector of Indian Sundarbans that faces the regular tidal influences of Bay of Bengal. Ocypode macrocera constructs burrows that are highly species specific and used by single individual. Four types of burrow patterns were observed like ‘I’, ‘J’ ‘U’ and ‘semi-U’ type with different sizes as revealed by POP casting. Important physic-chemical parameters like air temperature, temperature and salinity of the water were significantly varied (P < 0.05 throughout seasons in the Ocypode zone. Burrow sand column temperature were also significantly varied from ambient air temperature thus exhibiting preference for cooler subterranean residential compartment. The digging behaviour of Ocypodes enhances oxygenation in the ground soil and facilitates decomposition of organic materials, nutrient recycling, entrapping the sediments and mangrove seedlings and helps the process of bioturbation. As per the preliminary observations it was suggested that burrow shape is directly related to tidal action and metabolic activities of the crab are strongly correlated with burrow microenvironment. They are adapted to the different sediment conditions, tidal fluctuations, varying salinity gradients, air and water temperatures and other environmental fluctuations.

  17. National Forecast Charts

    Science.gov (United States)

    code. Press enter or select the go button to submit request Local forecast by "City, St" or Prediction Center on Twitter NCEP Quarterly Newsletter WPC Home Analyses and Forecasts National Forecast to all federal, state, and local government web resources and services. National Forecast Charts

  18. Are Forecast Updates Progressive?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    C-L. Chang (Chia-Lin); Ph.H.B.F. Franses (Philip Hans); M.J. McAleer (Michael)

    2010-01-01

    textabstractMacro-economic forecasts typically involve both a model component, which is replicable, as well as intuition, which is non-replicable. Intuition is expert knowledge possessed by a forecaster. If forecast updates are progressive, forecast updates should become more accurate, on average,

  19. Forecasting freight flows

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lyk-Jensen, Stéphanie

    2011-01-01

    Trade patterns and transport markets are changing as a result of the growth and globalization of international trade, and forecasting future freight flow has to rely on trade forecasts. Forecasting freight flows is critical for matching infrastructure supply to demand and for assessing investment...... constitute a valuable input to freight models for forecasting future capacity problems.......Trade patterns and transport markets are changing as a result of the growth and globalization of international trade, and forecasting future freight flow has to rely on trade forecasts. Forecasting freight flows is critical for matching infrastructure supply to demand and for assessing investment...

  20. A documentation on burrows in hard substrates of ferromanganese crusts and associated soft sediments from the Central Indian Ocean

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Banerjee, R

    , which are extensively bioturbated. Both the ferromanganese-coated and uncoated relict burrows have been collected from the same locality. Mobile epibenthic megafauna, e.g. molluscs, echinoderms, etc. seem to be main bioturbating organisms. The adjacent...

  1. Water pumping and analysis of flow in burrowing zoobenthos - a short overview

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Riisgård, Hans Ulrik; Larsen, Poul Scheel

    2005-01-01

    with the measuring of water pumping and the analysis of flow generated by burrowing deposit- and filter-feeding zoobenthos in order to determine the type of pump and mechanisms involved, flow rate, pump pressure, and pumping power. The practical use of fluid mechanical principles is examined, and it is stressed......-feeding animals. In stagnant situations the near-bottom water may be depleted of food particles, depending on the population filtration rate and the intensity of the biomixing induced by the filtering activity. But moderate currents and the biomixing can presumably generate enough turbulence to facilitate mixing...... of water layers at the sea bed with the layers above where food particle concentrations are relatively higher. Following a brief summary of types of burrowing benthic animals, common methods for measuring pumping rates are described along with examples. For estimating the required pump pressure, biofluid...

  2. Flood forecasting and uncertainty of precipitation forecasts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kobold, Mira; Suselj, Kay

    2004-01-01

    The timely and accurate flood forecasting is essential for the reliable flood warning. The effectiveness of flood warning is dependent on the forecast accuracy of certain physical parameters, such as the peak magnitude of the flood, its timing, location and duration. The conceptual rainfall - runoff models enable the estimation of these parameters and lead to useful operational forecasts. The accurate rainfall is the most important input into hydrological models. The input for the rainfall can be real time rain-gauges data, or weather radar data, or meteorological forecasted precipitation. The torrential nature of streams and fast runoff are characteristic for the most of the Slovenian rivers. Extensive damage is caused almost every year- by rainstorms affecting different regions of Slovenia' The lag time between rainfall and runoff is very short for Slovenian territory and on-line data are used only for now casting. Forecasted precipitations are necessary for hydrological forecast for some days ahead. ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) gives general forecast for several days ahead while more detailed precipitation data with limited area ALADIN/Sl model are available for two days ahead. There is a certain degree of uncertainty using such precipitation forecasts based on meteorological models. The variability of precipitation is very high in Slovenia and the uncertainty of ECMWF predicted precipitation is very large for Slovenian territory. ECMWF model can predict precipitation events correctly, but underestimates amount of precipitation in general The average underestimation is about 60% for Slovenian region. The predictions of limited area ALADIN/Si model up to; 48 hours ahead show greater applicability in hydrological forecasting. The hydrological models are sensitive to precipitation input. The deviation of runoff is much bigger than the rainfall deviation. Runoff to rainfall error fraction is about 1.6. If spatial and time distribution

  3. Black-footed ferrets and recreational shooting influence the attributes of black-tailed prairie dog burrows

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biggins, Dean E.; Ramakrishnan, Shantini; Goldberg, Amanda R.; Eads, David A.

    2012-01-01

    Black-tailed prairie dogs (Cynomys ludovicianus) plug burrows occupied by black-footed ferrets (Mustela nigripes), and they also plug burrows to entomb dead prairie dogs. We further evaluated these phenomena by sampling connectivity and plugging of burrow openings on prairie dog colonies occupied by ferrets, colonies where recreational shooting was allowed, and colonies with neither shooting nor ferrets. We counted burrow openings on line surveys and within plots, classified surface plugging, and used an air blower to examine subsurface connectivity. Colonies with ferrets had lower densities of openings, fewer connected openings (suggesting increased subsurface plugging), and more surface plugs compared to colonies with no known ferrets. Colonies with recreational shooting had the lowest densities of burrow openings, and line-survey data suggested colonies with shooting had intermediate rates of surface plugging. The extent of surface and subsurface plugging could have consequences for the prairie dog community by changing air circulation and escape routes of burrow systems and by altering energetic relationships. Burrow plugging might reduce prairie dogs' risk of predation by ferrets while increasing risk of predation by American badgers (Taxidea taxus); however, the complexity of the trade-off is increased if plugging increases the risk of predation on ferrets by badgers. Prairie dogs expend more energy plugging and digging when ferrets or shooting are present, and ferrets increase their energy expenditures when they dig to remove those plugs. Microclimatic differences in plugged burrow systems may play a role in flea ecology and persistence of the flea-borne bacterium that causes plague (Yersinia pestis).

  4. Burrowing by Sailfin Catfish (Pterygoplichthys sp.): A Potential Cause of Erosion in Disturbed Environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-03-01

    originates at a large levee, which was built to create a water retention (to control excess water) and water bird management area. The levee and canal...each sample was dried in stainless steel trays in a 60 °C convection oven . Two methods of quantitative analysis were performed to determine the...ERDC/TN ANSRP-14-1 March 2014 Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. Burrowing by Sailfin Catfish (Pterygoplichthys sp.): A

  5. Burrowing Owl and Other Migratory Bird Mitigation for a Runway Construction Project at Edwards AFB

    OpenAIRE

    Hoehn, Amber L.; Hagan, Mark; Bratton, Mark

    2009-01-01

    Edwards Air Force Base (AFB) scheduled the construction of a runway in the spring of 2007. The runway would be in an area that contained migratory birds and their habitat. The construction project would be near Edwards AFB main runway and had the potential not only to impact species protected under the Migratory Bird Treaty Act (MBTA), including the burrowing owl (Athene cunicularia), but also to increase bird and wildlife–aircraft strike hazards in the active flightline areas. To discourage ...

  6. Long-term population dynamics of a managed burrowing owl colony

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barclay, John H.; Korfanta, Nicole M.; Kauffman, Matthew J.

    2011-01-01

    We analyzed the population dynamics of a burrowing owl (Athene cunicularia) colony at Mineta San Jose International Airport in San Jose, California, USA from 1990-2007. This colony was managed by using artificial burrows to reduce the occurrence of nesting owls along runways and within major airport improvement projects during the study period. We estimated annual reproduction in natural and artificial burrows and age-specific survival rates with mark-recapture techniques, and we estimated the relative contribution of these vital rates to population dynamics using a life table response experiment. The breeding colony showed 2 distinct periods of change: high population growth from 7 nesting pairs in 1991 to 40 pairs in 2002 and population decline to 17 pairs in 2007. Reproduction was highly variable: annual nesting success (pairs that raised =1 young) averaged 79% and ranged from 36% to 100%, whereas fecundity averaged 3.36 juveniles/pair and ranged from 1.43 juveniles/pair to 4.54 juveniles/pair. We estimated annual adult survival at 0.710 during the period of colony increase from 1996 to 2001 and 0.465 during decline from 2002 to 2007, but there was no change in annual survival of juveniles between the 2 time periods. Long-term population growth rate (lambda) estimated from average vital rates was lambdaa=1.072 with lambdai=1.288 during colony increase and lambdad=0.921 (DELTA lambda=0.368) during decline. A life table response experiment showed that change in adult survival rate during increasing and declining phases explained more than twice the variation in growth rate than other vital rates. Our findings suggest that management and conservation of declining burrowing owl populations should address factors that influence adult survival.

  7. Distribution of the Chuckwalla, Western Burrowing Owl, and Six Bat Species on the Nevada Test Site

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cathy A. Willis

    1997-05-01

    Field Surveys were conducted in 1996 to determine the current distribution of several animal species of concern on the Nevada Test Site (NTS). They included the chuckwall (Sauromalus obesus), western burrowing owl (Speotyto cunicularia), and six species of bats. Nineteen chuckwallas and 118 scat locations were found during the chuckwalla field study. Eighteen western burrowing owls were found at 12 sighting locations during the 1996 field study. Of the eleven bat species of concern which might occur on the NTS, five, and possibly six, were captured during this survey. The U.S. Department of Energy, Nevada Operations Office, takes certain management actions to protect and conserve the chuckwalla, western burrowing owl, and bats on the NTS. These actions are described and include: (1) conducting surveys at sites of proposed land-disturbing activities (2) altering projects whenever possible to avoid or minimize impacts to these species (3) maintaining a geospatial database of known habitat for species of concern (4) sharing sighting and trap location data gathered on the NTS with other local land and resource managers, and (5) conducting periodic field surveys to monitor these species distribution and relative abundance on the NTS.

  8. Regional and Seasonal Diet of the Western Burrowing Owl in South-Central Nevada

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Derek B. Hall, Paul D. Greger, Jeffrey R. Rosier

    2009-04-01

    We examined diets of Western Burrowing Owls (Athene cunicularia hypugaea) based on contents of pellets and large prey remains collected year-round at burrows in each of the 3 regions in south central Nevada (Mojave Desert, Great Basin Desert, and Transition region). The most common prey items, based on percent frequency of occurrence, were crickets and grasshoppers, beetles, rodents, sun spiders, and scorpions. The most common vertebrate prey was kangaroo rats (Dipodomys spp.). True bugs (Hemiptera), scorpions, and western harvest mice (Reithrodontomys megalotis) occurred most frequently in pellets from the Great Basin Desert region. Kangaroo rats (Dipodomys spp.) and pocket mice (Perognathinae) were the most important vertebrate prey items in the Transition and Mojave Desert regions, respectively. Frequency of occurrence of any invertebrate prey was high (>80%) in samples year-round but dropped in winter samples, with scorpions and sun spiders exhibiting the steepest declines. Frequency of occurrence of any vertebrate prey peaked in spring samples, was intermediate for winter and summer samples, and was lowest in fall samples. With the possible exception of selecting for western harvest mice in the Great Basin Desert region, Western Burrowing Owls in our study appeared to be opportunistic foragers with a generalist feeding strategy.

  9. N2 production and fixation in deep-tier burrows of Squilla empusa in muddy sediments of Great Peconic Bay

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waugh, Stuart; Aller, Robert C.

    2017-11-01

    Global marine N budgets often show deficits due to dominance of benthic N2 production relative to pelagic N2 fixation. Recent studies have argued that benthic N2 fixation in shallow water environments has been underestimated. In particular, N2 fixation associated with animal burrows may be significant as indicated by high rates of N2 fixation reported in muddy sands populated by the ghost shrimp, Neotrypaea californiensis (Bertics et al., 2010). We investigated whether N2 fixation occurs at higher rates in the burrow-walls of the deep-burrowing ( 0.5-4 m) mantis shrimp, Squilla empusa, compared to ambient, estuarine muds and measured seasonal in-situ N2 concentrations in burrow-water relative to bottom-water. Acetylene reduction assays showed lower N2 fixation in burrow-walls than in un-populated sediments, likely due to inhibitory effects of O2 on ethylene production. Dissolved N2 was higher in burrow-water than proximate bottom-water at all seasons, demonstrating a consistent balance of net N2 production relative to fixation in deep-tier biogenic structures.

  10. Fuel cycle forecasting - there are forecasts and there are forecasts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Puechl, K H

    1975-12-01

    The FORECAST-NUCLEAR computer program described recognizes that forecasts are made to answer a variety of questions and, therefore, that no single forecast is universally appropriate. Also, it recognizes that no two individuals will completely agree as to the input data that are appropriate for obtaining an answer to even a single simple question. Accordingly, the program was written from a utilitarian standpoint: it allows working with multiple projections; data inputting is simple to allow game-playing; computation time is short to minimize the cost of 'what if' assessements; and detail is internally carried to allow meaningful analysis.

  11. Fuel cycle forecasting - there are forecasts and there are forecasts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Puechl, K.H.

    1975-01-01

    The FORECAST-NUCLEAR computer program described recognizes that forecasts are made to answer a variety of questions and, therefore, that no single forecast is universally appropriate. Also, it recognizes that no two individuals will completely agree as to the input data that are appropriate for obtaining an answer to even a single simple question. Accordingly, the program was written from a utilitarian standpoint: it allows working with multiple projections; data inputting is simple to allow game-playing; computation time is short to minimize the cost of 'what if' assessements; and detail is internally carried to allow meaningful analysis. (author)

  12. Robust Approaches to Forecasting

    OpenAIRE

    Jennifer Castle; David Hendry; Michael P. Clements

    2014-01-01

    We investigate alternative robust approaches to forecasting, using a new class of robust devices, contrasted with equilibrium correction models. Their forecasting properties are derived facing a range of likely empirical problems at the forecast origin, including measurement errors, implulses, omitted variables, unanticipated location shifts and incorrectly included variables that experience a shift. We derive the resulting forecast biases and error variances, and indicate when the methods ar...

  13. Inflation Forecast Contracts

    OpenAIRE

    Gersbach, Hans; Hahn, Volker

    2012-01-01

    We introduce a new type of incentive contract for central bankers: inflation forecast contracts, which make central bankers’ remunerations contingent on the precision of their inflation forecasts. We show that such contracts enable central bankers to influence inflation expectations more effectively, thus facilitating more successful stabilization of current inflation. Inflation forecast contracts improve the accuracy of inflation forecasts, but have adverse consequences for output. On balanc...

  14. Electricity demand forecasting techniques

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gnanalingam, K.

    1994-01-01

    Electricity demand forecasting plays an important role in power generation. The two areas of data that have to be forecasted in a power system are peak demand which determines the capacity (MW) of the plant required and annual energy demand (GWH). Methods used in electricity demand forecasting include time trend analysis and econometric methods. In forecasting, identification of manpower demand, identification of key planning factors, decision on planning horizon, differentiation between prediction and projection (i.e. development of different scenarios) and choosing from different forecasting techniques are important

  15. Spatial electric load forecasting

    CERN Document Server

    Willis, H Lee

    2002-01-01

    Containing 12 new chapters, this second edition contains offers increased-coverage of weather correction and normalization of forecasts, anticipation of redevelopment, determining the validity of announced developments, and minimizing risk from over- or under-planning. It provides specific examples and detailed explanations of key points to consider for both standard and unusual utility forecasting situations, information on new algorithms and concepts in forecasting, a review of forecasting pitfalls and mistakes, case studies depicting challenging forecast environments, and load models illustrating various types of demand.

  16. Method for forecasting an earthquake from precursor signals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Farnworth, D.F.

    1996-01-01

    A method for forecasting an earthquake from precursor signals by employing characteristic first electromagnetic signals, second, seismically induced electromagnetic signals, seismically induced mechanical signals, and infrasonic acoustic signals which have been observed to precede an earthquake. From a first electromagnetic signal, a magnitude, depth beneath the surface of the earth, distance, latitude, longitude, and first and second forecasts of the time of occurrence of the impending earthquake may be derived. From a second, seismically induced electromagnetic signal and the mechanical signal, third and fourth forecasts of the time of occurrence of an impending earthquake determined from the analysis above, a magnitude, depth beneath the surface of the earth and fourth and fifth forecasts of the time of occurrence of the impending earthquake may be derived. The forecasts of time available from the above analyses range from up to five weeks to substantially within one hour in advance of the earthquake. (author)

  17. Importance of agricultural landscapes to nesting burrowing owls in the Northern Great Plains, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Restani, M.; Davies, J.M.; Newton, W.E.

    2008-01-01

    Anthropogenic habitat loss and fragmentation are the principle factors causing declines of grassland birds. Declines in burrowing owl (Athene cunicularia) populations have been extensive and have been linked to habitat loss, primarily the decline of black-tailed prairie dog (Cynomys ludovicianus) colonies. Development of habitat use models is a research priority and will aid conservation of owls inhabiting human-altered landscapes. From 2001 to 2004 we located 160 burrowing owl nests on prairie dog colonies on the Little Missouri National Grassland in North Dakota. We used multiple linear regression and Akaike's Information Criterion to estimate the relationship between cover type characteristics surrounding prairie dog colonies and (1) number of owl pairs per colony and (2) reproductive success. Models were developed for two spatial scales, within 600 m and 2,000 m radii of nests for cropland, crested wheatgrass (Agropyron cristatum), grassland, and prairie dog colonies. We also included number of patches as a metric of landscape fragmentation. Annually, fewer than 30% of prairie dog colonies were occupied by owls. None of the models at the 600 m scale explained variation in number of owl pairs or reproductive success. However, models at the 2,000 m scale did explain number of owl pairs and reproductive success. Models included cropland, crested wheatgrass, and prairie dog colonies. Grasslands were not included in any of the models and had low importance values, although percentage grassland surrounding colonies was high. Management that protects prairie dog colonies bordering cropland and crested wheatgrass should be implemented to maintain nesting habitat of burrowing owls. ?? 2008 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

  18. TRENDS IN ESTIMATED MIXING DEPTH DAILY MAXIMUMS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Buckley, R; Amy DuPont, A; Robert Kurzeja, R; Matt Parker, M

    2007-11-12

    Mixing depth is an important quantity in the determination of air pollution concentrations. Fireweather forecasts depend strongly on estimates of the mixing depth as a means of determining the altitude and dilution (ventilation rates) of smoke plumes. The Savannah River United States Forest Service (USFS) routinely conducts prescribed fires at the Savannah River Site (SRS), a heavily wooded Department of Energy (DOE) facility located in southwest South Carolina. For many years, the Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) has provided forecasts of weather conditions in support of the fire program, including an estimated mixing depth using potential temperature and turbulence change with height at a given location. This paper examines trends in the average estimated mixing depth daily maximum at the SRS over an extended period of time (4.75 years) derived from numerical atmospheric simulations using two versions of the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS). This allows for differences to be seen between the model versions, as well as trends on a multi-year time frame. In addition, comparisons of predicted mixing depth for individual days in which special balloon soundings were released are also discussed.

  19. Inaccuracy in traffic forecasts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Flyvbjerg, Bent; Holm, Mette K. Skamris; Buhl, Søren Ladegaard

    2006-01-01

    This paper presents results from the first statistically significant study of traffic forecasts in transportation infrastructure projects. The sample used is the largest of its kind, covering 210 projects in 14 nations worth US$58 billion. The study shows with very high statistical significance...... that forecasters generally do a poor job of estimating the demand for transportation infrastructure projects. The result is substantial downside financial and economic risk. Forecasts have not become more accurate over the 30-year period studied. If techniques and skills for arriving at accurate demand forecasts...... forecasting. Highly inaccurate traffic forecasts combined with large standard deviations translate into large financial and economic risks. But such risks are typically ignored or downplayed by planners and decision-makers, to the detriment of social and economic welfare. The paper presents the data...

  20. Traces and burrowing behaviors of the Cicada nymph Cicadetta calliope: Neoichnology and paleoecological significance of extant soil-dwelling insects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, J.J.; Hasiotis, S.T.

    2008-01-01

    This study documents the traces and burrowing behaviors of nymphs of the prairie cicada Cicadetta calliope (Hemiptera: Cicadidae), as observed in neoichnological experiments. Cicada nymphs were collected from the C horizons of sandy Fluvents along the Kansas River east of Lawrence, Kansas. The nymphs appeared to be fifth instars, 13-17 mm long and 6-7 mm wide. Nymphs were placed in plastic enclosures containing layers of colored, moist, very fine-grained sand. They burrowed immediately, excavating air-filled, sediment-enclosed cells between 20 mm and 40 mm long and averaging 9 mm wide. Burrowing was completed in three stages: (1) sediment in the forward portion of the cell was excavated and rolled into a ball with the forelimbs; (2) the nymph turned 180?? using a forward roll, and moved to the back of the cell; and (3) the sediment ball was pushed up against the back wall of the cell and kneaded with the forelimbs into a thin layer. Resulting burrow traces are sinuous and distinctly meniscate and demonstrate that insect larvae construct meniscate, backfilled burrows in well-drained terrestrial settings. Cicadetta calliope nymphs and their traces are excellent analogs for meniscate trace fossils commonly found in late Paleozoic-Cenozoic alluvial deposits and paleosols. Such meniscate trace fossils are useful for interpreting the paleoenvironment and paleohydrogeology of the units in which they are found. In addition, such backfilled burrows can be used to supplement the fossil record of cicada-like hemipterans, currently known only from the latest Permian to the Early Triassic. Copyright ?? 2008, SEPM (Society for Sedimentary Geology).

  1. The Analysis of Burrows Recognition Accuracy in XINJIANG'S Pasture Area Based on Uav Visible Images with Different Spatial Resolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, D.; Zheng, J. H.; Ma, T.; Chen, J. J.; Li, X.

    2018-04-01

    The rodent disaster is one of the main biological disasters in grassland in northern Xinjiang. The eating and digging behaviors will cause the destruction of ground vegetation, which seriously affected the development of animal husbandry and grassland ecological security. UAV low altitude remote sensing, as an emerging technique with high spatial resolution, can effectively recognize the burrows. However, how to select the appropriate spatial resolution to monitor the calamity of the rodent disaster is the first problem we need to pay attention to. The purpose of this study is to explore the optimal spatial scale on identification of the burrows by evaluating the impact of different spatial resolution for the burrows identification accuracy. In this study, we shoot burrows from different flight heights to obtain visible images of different spatial resolution. Then an object-oriented method is used to identify the caves, and we also evaluate the accuracy of the classification. We found that the highest classification accuracy of holes, the average has reached more than 80 %. At the altitude of 24 m and the spatial resolution of 1cm, the accuracy of the classification is the highest We have created a unique and effective way to identify burrows by using UAVs visible images. We draw the following conclusion: the best spatial resolution of burrows recognition is 1 cm using DJI PHANTOM-3 UAV, and the improvement of spatial resolution does not necessarily lead to the improvement of classification accuracy. This study lays the foundation for future research and can be extended to similar studies elsewhere.

  2. Seasonal temperature acclimatization in a semi-fossorial mammal and the role of burrows as thermal refuges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rachlow, Janet L.; Chappell, Mark A.; Camp, Meghan J.; Johnson, Timothy R.; Shipley, Lisa A.; Paul, David R.; Forbey, Jennifer S.

    2018-01-01

    Small mammals in habitats with strong seasonal variation in the thermal environment often exhibit physiological and behavioral adaptations for coping with thermal extremes and reducing thermoregulatory costs. Burrows are especially important for providing thermal refuge when above-ground temperatures require high regulatory costs (e.g., water or energy) or exceed the physiological tolerances of an organism. Our objective was to explore the role of burrows as thermal refuges for a small endotherm, the pygmy rabbit (Brachylagus idahoensis), during the summer and winter by quantifying energetic costs associated with resting above and below ground. We used indirect calorimetry to determine the relationship between energy expenditure and ambient temperature over a range of temperatures that pygmy rabbits experience in their natural habitat. We also measured the temperature of above- and below-ground rest sites used by pygmy rabbits in eastern Idaho, USA, during summer and winter and estimated the seasonal thermoregulatory costs of resting in the two microsites. Although pygmy rabbits demonstrated seasonal physiological acclimatization, the burrow was an important thermal refuge, especially in winter. Thermoregulatory costs were lower inside the burrow than in above-ground rest sites for more than 50% of the winter season. In contrast, thermal heterogeneity provided by above-ground rest sites during summer reduced the role of burrows as a thermal refuge during all but the hottest periods of the afternoon. Our findings contribute to an understanding of the ecology of small mammals in seasonal environments and demonstrate the importance of burrows as thermal refuge for pygmy rabbits. PMID:29576977

  3. FORECASTING MODELS IN MANAGEMENT

    OpenAIRE

    Sindelar, Jiri

    2008-01-01

    This article deals with the problems of forecasting models. First part of the article is dedicated to definition of the relevant areas (vertical and horizontal pillar of definition) and then the forecasting model itself is defined; as article presents theoretical background for further primary research, this definition is crucial. Finally the position of forecasting models within the management system is identified. The paper is a part of the outputs of FEM CULS grant no. 1312/11/3121.

  4. Forecasting in Planning

    OpenAIRE

    Ike, P.; Voogd, Henk; Voogd, Henk; Linden, Gerard

    2004-01-01

    This chapter begins with a discussion of qualitative forecasting by describing a number of methods that depend on judgements made by stakeholders, experts or other interested parties to arrive at forecasts. Two qualitative approaches are illuminated, the Delphi and scenario methods respectively. Quantitative forecasting is illustrated with a brief overview of time series methods. Both qualitative and quantitative methods are illustrated by an example. The role and relative importance of forec...

  5. The strategy of professional forecasting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ottaviani, Marco; Sørensen, Peter Norman

    2006-01-01

    We develop and compare two theories of professional forecasters’ strategic behavior. The first theory, reputational cheap talk, posits that forecasters endeavor to convince the market that they are well informed. The market evaluates their forecasting talent on the basis of the forecasts...... and the realized state. If the market expects forecasters to report their posterior expectations honestly, then forecasts are shaded toward the prior mean. With correct market expectations, equilibrium forecasts are imprecise but not shaded. The second theory posits that forecasters compete in a forecasting...... contest with pre-specified rules. In a winner-take-all contest, equilibrium forecasts are excessively differentiated...

  6. From LZ77 to the run-length encoded burrows-wheeler transform, and back

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Policriti, Alberto; Prezza, Nicola

    2017-01-01

    The Lempel-Ziv factorization (LZ77) and the Run-Length encoded Burrows-Wheeler Transform (RLBWT) are two important tools in text compression and indexing, being their sizes z and r closely related to the amount of text self-repetitiveness. In this paper we consider the problem of converting the t......(r + z) words of working space. Note that r and z can be constant if the text is highly repetitive, and our algorithms can operate with (up to) exponentially less space than naive solutions based on full decompression.......The Lempel-Ziv factorization (LZ77) and the Run-Length encoded Burrows-Wheeler Transform (RLBWT) are two important tools in text compression and indexing, being their sizes z and r closely related to the amount of text self-repetitiveness. In this paper we consider the problem of converting the two...... representations into each other within a working space proportional to the input and the output. Let n be the text length. We show that RLBWT can be converted to LZ77 in O(n log r) time and O(r) words of working space. Conversely, we provide an algorithm to convert LZ77 to RLBWT in O(n(log r + log z)) time and O...

  7. A study of burrow morphology in representative axiidean and gebiidean mud shrimps, from the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman, Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vahid Sepahvand

    Full Text Available Mud shrimps (formerly Thalassinidea are common burrow dwelling decapod crustaceans in the littoral zone of the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman. Their burrow morphology was investigated using foam casting methods. The present study shows that the burrow morphology in Upogebia carinicauda is not consistent and the recorded variations are based on habitat type and some physical characteristics of sediments. Adult burrow morphology in sandy-muddy substrate with shells, and boulder field habitats were Y-shaped and complex burrows of horizontal channels with turning chambers and vertical connections to internal passages or crevices of boulders, respectively. In burrows of U. carinicauda, some narrow passages, connected to the upper part of adult burrows in sandy-muddy habitats, belong to juveniles. Another species, Neocallichirus jousseaumei was found under boulders in sandy-muddy habitats of the Gulf of Oman and Qeshm Island, Persian Gulf. Since this type of habitat is special in some features, no conspicuous ex-current openings (usually obvious as conical mounds of extruded sediment have been observed on the sediment surface; as these were hidden among the boulders surrounded by mixed sand and shells. The only method for observing this type of burrow was to remove the boulders by hand or lever.

  8. Effect of environmental conditions on variation in the sediment-water interface created by complex macrofaunal burrows on a tidal flat

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koo, Bon Joo; Kwon, Kae Kyoung; Hyun, Jung-Ho

    2007-11-01

    We quantified the increase in the sediment-water interface created by the burrowing activities of the resident macrofaunal community and its variation with respect to the physical conditions of the habitat on a tidal fat. We investigated environmental factors and dimensions of macrofaunal burrows with respect to tidal height and vegetation during spring and summer at three sites. A resin-casting method was used to quantify the dimensions of all burrows at each site. The dimensions of macrofaunal burrows varied both temporally and spatially and the increase in the sediment-water interface reached a maximum of 311%, ranging from 20 to 255% under different habitat conditions. The sediment-water interface depended on the duration of exposure resulting from tidal height, increased temperatures resulting from seasonality, and marsh plant density. Burrows were deeper and more expansive at both higher tidal levels and higher temperatures in summer. Burrow dimensions were sharply reduced with the disappearance of adult macrofauna in areas where the roots of the marsh plant Suaeda japonica were dense. The significance of this study lies in quantifying the burrow dimensions of the entire macrofaunal community, rather than just a single population, and confirming their spatial and temporal variation with respect to physical conditions of the habitat. Environmental factors responsible for variation in burrow dimensions are discussed.

  9. House Price Forecasts, Forecaster Herding, and the Recent Crisis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christian Pierdzioch

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available We used the Wall Street Journal survey data for the period 2006–2012 to analyze whether forecasts of house prices and housing starts provide evidence of (anti-herding of forecasters. Forecasts are consistent with herding (anti-herding of forecasters if forecasts are biased towards (away from the consensus forecast. We found that anti-herding is prevalent among forecasters of house prices. We also report that, following the recent crisis, the prevalence of forecaster anti-herding seems to have changed over time.

  10. House Price Forecasts, Forecaster Herding, and the Recent Crisis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stadtmann, Georg; Pierdzioch; Ruelke

    2013-01-01

    We used the Wall Street Journal survey data for the period 2006–2012 to analyze whether forecasts of house prices and housing starts provide evidence of (anti-)herding of forecasters. Forecasts are consistent with herding (anti-herding) of forecasters if forecasts are biased towards (away from) t......) the consensus forecast. We found that anti-herding is prevalent among forecasters of house prices. We also report that, following the recent crisis, the prevalence of forecaster anti-herding seems to have changed over time....

  11. World Area Forecast System (WAFS)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The World Area Forecast System (WAFS) is a worldwide system by which world area forecast centers provide aeronautical meteorological en-route forecasts in uniform...

  12. Forecasting in Planning

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ike, P.; Voogd, Henk; Voogd, Henk; Linden, Gerard

    2004-01-01

    This chapter begins with a discussion of qualitative forecasting by describing a number of methods that depend on judgements made by stakeholders, experts or other interested parties to arrive at forecasts. Two qualitative approaches are illuminated, the Delphi and scenario methods respectively.

  13. Improving Garch Volatility Forecasts

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Klaassen, F.J.G.M.

    1998-01-01

    Many researchers use GARCH models to generate volatility forecasts. We show, however, that such forecasts are too variable. To correct for this, we extend the GARCH model by distinguishing two regimes with different volatility levels. GARCH effects are allowed within each regime, so that our model

  14. On density forecast evaluation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Diks, C.

    2008-01-01

    Traditionally, probability integral transforms (PITs) have been popular means for evaluating density forecasts. For an ideal density forecast, the PITs should be uniformly distributed on the unit interval and independent. However, this is only a necessary condition, and not a sufficient one, as

  15. Forecast Accuracy Uncertainty and Momentum

    OpenAIRE

    Bing Han; Dong Hong; Mitch Warachka

    2009-01-01

    We demonstrate that stock price momentum and earnings momentum can result from uncertainty surrounding the accuracy of cash flow forecasts. Our model has multiple information sources issuing cash flow forecasts for a stock. The investor combines these forecasts into an aggregate cash flow estimate that has minimal mean-squared forecast error. This aggregate estimate weights each cash flow forecast by the estimated accuracy of its issuer, which is obtained from their past forecast errors. Mome...

  16. Operational aerosol and dust storm forecasting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Westphal, D L; Curtis, C A; Liu, M; Walker, A L

    2009-01-01

    The U. S. Navy now conducts operational forecasting of aerosols and dust storms on global and regional scales. The Navy Aerosol Analysis and Prediction System (NAAPS) is run four times per day and produces 6-day forecasts of sulfate, smoke, dust and sea salt aerosol concentrations and visibility for the entire globe. The Coupled Ocean Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS (registered) ) is run twice daily for Southwest Asia and produces 3-day forecasts of dust, smoke, and visibility. The graphical output from these models is available on the Internet (www.nrlmry.navy.mil/aerosol/). The aerosol optical properties are calculated for each specie for each forecast output time and used for sea surface temperature (SST) retrieval corrections, regional electro-optical (EO) propagation assessments, and the development of satellite algorithms. NAAPS daily aerosol optical depth (AOD) values are compared with the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) AOD values. Visibility forecasts are compared quantitatively with surface synoptic reports.

  17. PARTICLE REMOVAL RATES BY THE MUD SHRIMP UPOGEBIA PUGETTENSIS, ITS BURROW, AND A COMMENSAL CLAM: EFFECTS ON ESTUARINE PHYTOPLANKTON ABUNDANCE

    Science.gov (United States)

    The burrowing shrimp Upogebia pugettensis is an abundant intertidal inhabitant of Pacific Northwest bays and estuaries where it lives commensally with the bivalve Cryptomya californica. Suspension-feeding activities by the shrimp and by its commensal clam, as well as particle se...

  18. Distributional changes in the western Burrowing Owl (Athene cunicularia hypugaea) in North America from 1967 to 2008

    Science.gov (United States)

    Macias-Duarte, Alberto; Conway, Courtney J.

    2015-01-01

    The quantification of shifts in bird distributions in response to climate change provides an opportunity to gain a deeper understanding of the processes that influence species persistence. We used data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) to document changes in the distributional limits of the western Burrowing Owl (Athene cunicularia hypugaea) from 1967 to 2008. We used logistic regression to model presence probability (p) as a function of longitude, latitude, and year. We modeled a linear trend in logit(p) through time with slope and intercept modeled as a double Fourier series of longitude and latitude. We found that the western Burrowing Owl has experienced an intriguing southward shift in the northern half of its breeding range, contrary to what is predicted by most species niche models and what has been observed for many other species in North America. The breeding range of the Burrowing Owl has been shrinking near its northern, western, and eastern edges. Our model detected the population declines that were observed in California and eastern Washington, in locations where maps based on route-specific estimating equations had predicted significant population increases. We suggest that the northern boundary of the breeding distribution of the western Burrowing Owl has contracted southward and the southern boundary of the species' breeding distribution has expanded southward into areas of northern Mexico that were formerly used only by wintering migrants.

  19. A maze-lover's dream: Burrow architecture, natural history and habitat characteristics of Ansell's mole-rat (Fukomys anselli)

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Šklíba, J.; Mazoch, V.; Patzenhauerová, Hana; Hrouzková, E.; Lövy, M.; Kott, O.; Šumbera, R.

    2012-01-01

    Roč. 77, č. 6 (2012), s. 420-427 ISSN 1616-5047 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR IAA601410802 Institutional support: RVO:68081766 Keywords : Bathyergidae * Burrow system * Sociality * Habitat characteristics * Subterranean mammal * Fukomys anselli Subject RIV: EG - Zoology Impact factor: 1.246, year: 2012

  20. Scent gland constituents of the Middle American burrowing python, Loxocemus bicolor (Serpentes: Loxocemidae).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schulze, Thies; Weldon, Paul J; Schulz, Stefan

    2017-07-14

    Analysis by gas chromatography/mass spectrometry of the scent gland secretions of male and female Middle American burrowing pythons (Loxocemus bicolor) revealed the presence of over 300 components including cholesterol, fatty acids, glyceryl monoalkyl ethers, and alcohols. The fatty acids, over 100 of which were identified, constitute most of the compounds in the secretions and show the greatest structural diversity. They include saturated and unsaturated, unbranched and mono-, di-, and trimethyl-branched compounds ranging in carbon-chain length from 13 to 24. The glyceryl monoethers possess saturated or unsaturated, straight or methyl-branched alkyl chains ranging in carbon-chain length from 13 to 24. Alcohols, which have not previously been reported from the scent glands, possess straight, chiefly saturated carbon chains ranging in length from 13 to 24. Sex or individual differences in secretion composition were not observed. Compounds in the scent gland secretions of L. bicolor may deter offending arthropods, such as ants.

  1. The rhinoceros among Serpents: Comparative anatomy and experimental biophysics of Calabar burrowing python (Calabaria reinhardtii) skin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Dawei; Young, Bruce A

    2018-01-01

    The Calabar burrowing python (Calabaria reinhardtii) has a unique combination of marked thickness of the integumentary layers, a highly organized lamellate arrangement of the dermal collagen bundles, and a reduction in the size of the interscale hinge region of the integument. Biomechanical testing demonstrates that the skin of C. reinhardtii is more resistant to penetration than the skin of other snakes. The laminar arrangement of the collagen bundles provides for penetrative resistance, even while maintaining the flexibility characteristic of snake skin. Considering the life history of this species, it is hypothesized that the specialized integument of C. reinhardtii is a passive defensive mechanism against penetrative bites from maternal rodents and predators. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  2. Effects of radiotransmitter necklaces on behaviors of adult male western burrowing owls

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chipman, E.D.; McIntyre, N.E.; Ray, J.D.; Wallace, M.C.; Boal, C.W.

    2007-01-01

    We studied the behavioral effects of necklace-style radiotransmitters on breeding male western burrowing owls (Athene cunicularia hypugaea) in 2 areas of northwestern Texas, USA, in 2004 and 2005. We tested the hypothesis that transmittered owls would spend time interacting with their necklaces and as a result spend less time in vigilance and resting activities than would nontransmittered owls. Nontransmittered owls (n = 6) spent significantly more time being vigilant (P = 0.007) than did transmittered owls (n = 3) in 2004, who spent significant amounts of time interacting with their necklaces. In 2005, behaviors of transmittered owls (n = 8) were significantly different (P of time interacting with their necklaces, they appeared to habituate to the presence of the transmitters within a relatively short period (<1 week), and necklaces did not affect survivorship or fitness in the short-term.

  3. Patterns of surface burrow plugging in a colony of black-tailed prairie dogs occupied by black-footed ferrets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eads, David E.; Biggins, Dean E.

    2012-01-01

    Black-tailed prairie dogs (Cynomys ludovicianus) can surface-plug openings to a burrow occupied by a black-footed ferret (Mustela nigripes). At a coarse scale, surface plugs are more common in colonies of prairie dogs occupied by ferrets than in colonies without ferrets. However, little is known about spatial and temporal patterns of surface plugging in a colony occupied by ferrets. In a 452-ha colony of black-tailed prairie dogs in South Dakota, we sampled burrow openings for surface plugs and related those data to locations of ferrets observed during spotlight surveys. Of 67,574 burrow openings in the colony between June and September 2007, 3.7% were plugged. In a colony-wide grid of 80 m × 80 m cells, the occurrence of surface plugging (≥1 opening plugged) was greater in cells used by ferrets (93.3% of cells) than in cells not observably used by ferrets (70.6%). Rates of surface plugging (percentages of openings plugged) were significantly higher in cells used by ferrets (median = 3.7%) than in cells without known ferret use (median = 3.2%). Also, numbers of ferret locations in cells correlated positively with numbers of mapped surface plugs in the cells. To investigate surface plugging at finer temporal and spatial scales, we compared rates of surface plugging in 20-m-radius circle-plots centered on ferret locations and in random plots 1–4 days after observing a ferret (Jun–Oct 2007 and 2008). Rates of surface plugging were greater in ferret-plots (median = 12.0%) than in random plots (median = 0%). For prairie dogs and their associates, the implications of surface plugging could be numerous. For instance, ferrets must dig to exit or enter plugged burrows (suggesting energetic costs), and surface plugs might influence microclimates in burrows and consequently influence species that cannot excavate soil (e.g., fleas that transmit the plague bacterium Yersinia pestis).

  4. Burrowing as a novel voluntary strength training method for mice: A comparison of various voluntary strength or resistance exercise methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roemers, P; Mazzola, P N; De Deyn, P P; Bossers, W J; van Heuvelen, M J G; van der Zee, E A

    2018-04-15

    Voluntary strength training methods for rodents are necessary to investigate the effects of strength training on cognition and the brain. However, few voluntary methods are available. The current study tested functional and muscular effects of two novel voluntary strength training methods, burrowing (digging a substrate out of a tube) and unloaded tower climbing, in male C57Bl6 mice. To compare these two novel methods with existing exercise methods, resistance running and (non-resistance) running were included. Motor coordination, grip strength and muscle fatigue were measured at baseline, halfway through and near the end of a fourteen week exercise intervention. Endurance was measured by an incremental treadmill test after twelve weeks. Both burrowing and resistance running improved forelimb grip strength as compared to controls. Running and resistance running increased endurance in the treadmill test and improved motor skills as measured by the balance beam test. Post-mortem tissue analyses revealed that running and resistance running induced Soleus muscle hypertrophy and reduced epididymal fat mass. Tower climbing elicited no functional or muscular changes. As a voluntary strength exercise method, burrowing avoids the confounding effects of stress and positive reinforcers elicited in forced strength exercise methods. Compared to voluntary resistance running, burrowing likely reduces the contribution of aerobic exercise components. Burrowing qualifies as a suitable voluntary strength training method in mice. Furthermore, resistance running shares features of strength training and endurance (aerobic) exercise and should be considered a multi-modal aerobic-strength exercise method in mice. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  5. Estimating population size of a nocturnal burrow-nesting seabird using acoustic monitoring and habitat mapping

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Steffen Oppel

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Population size assessments for nocturnal burrow-nesting seabirds are logistically challenging because these species are active in colonies only during darkness and often nest on remote islands where manual inspections of breeding burrows are not feasible. Many seabird species are highly vocal, and recent technological innovations now make it possible to record and quantify vocal activity in seabird colonies. Here we test the hypothesis that remotely recorded vocal activity in Cory’s shearwater (Calonectris borealis breeding colonies in the North Atlantic increases with nest density, and combined this relationship with cliff habitat mapping to estimate the population size of Cory’s shearwaters on the island of Corvo (Azores. We deployed acoustic recording devices in 9 Cory’s shearwater colonies of known size to establish a relationship between vocal activity and local nest density (slope = 1.07, R2 = 0.86, p < 0.001. We used this relationship to predict the nest density in various cliff habitat types and produced a habitat map of breeding cliffs to extrapolate nest density around the island of Corvo. The mean predicted nest density on Corvo ranged from 6.6 (2.1–16.2 to 27.8 (19.5–36.4 nests/ha. Extrapolation of habitat-specific nest densities across the cliff area of Corvo resulted in an estimate of 6326 Cory’s shearwater nests (95% confidence interval: 3735–10,524. This population size estimate is similar to previous assessments, but is too imprecise to detect moderate changes in population size over time. While estimating absolute population size from acoustic recordings may not be sufficiently precise, the strong positive relationship that we found between local nest density and recorded calling rate indicates that passive acoustic monitoring may be useful to document relative changes in seabird populations over time.

  6. Shifts in the diets of slimy sculpin (Cottus cognatus) and lake whitefish (Coregonus clupeaformis) in Lake Ontario following the collapse of the burrowing amphipod Diporeia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Owens, Randall W.; Dittman, Dawn E.

    2003-01-01

    In Lake Ontario, the diets of slimy sculpin Cottus cognatus and lake whitefish Coregonus clupeaformis shifted from a diet dominated by the burrowing amphipod, Diporeia, and to a lesser extent, Mysis, to a more diverse diet, after Diporeia collapsed, to one dominated by Mysis and prey that were formerly less important or uncommon such as Chironomidae, Oligochaeta, and Ostracoda. Additionally, lake whitefish still preyed on native mollusks like Sphaeriidae and Gastropoda, but also preyed on exotic mollusks, Dreissena spp., which are swallowed intact and subsequently crushed in its muscular stomach. Whether Diporeia was abundant (1992) or scarce (1999), selection indices for Diporeia by slimy sculpins was positive, suggesting that Diporeia was a preferred prey. Unlike lake whitefish, slimy sculpins avoided Dreissena; therefore, energy diverted to Dreissena production was a real loss for slimy sculpins. The shifts in the diet of these benthic fishes corresponded with drastic changes in the benthic community between 1992 and 1999. The collapse of Diporeia, formerly the most abundant macroinvertebrate in the benthic community, along with sharp declines in the abundance of Oligochaeta and Sphaeriidae, coincided with the establishment and rapid expansion of Dreissena bugensis, the quagga mussel, and to a lesser degree Dreissena polymorpha, the zebra mussel. It appears that the Diporeia population first collapsed at depths >70 m in southeastern Lake Ontario by autumn 1992, at shallower depths in the eastern Lake Ontario by 1995, and along the entire south shore line at depths 100 m by 1999. In response to the disappearance of Diporeia, populations of two native benthivores, slimy sculpin and lake whitefish, collapsed in eastern Lake Ontario, perhaps due in part to starvation, because Diporeia was their principal prey. Presently, alternative food resources do not appear sufficient to sustain these two benthivores at their former levels of abundance. We do not expect slimy

  7. Spatial electric load forecasting

    CERN Document Server

    Willis, H Lee

    2002-01-01

    Spatial Electric Load Forecasting Consumer Demand for Power and ReliabilityCoincidence and Load BehaviorLoad Curve and End-Use ModelingWeather and Electric LoadWeather Design Criteria and Forecast NormalizationSpatial Load Growth BehaviorSpatial Forecast Accuracy and Error MeasuresTrending MethodsSimulation Method: Basic ConceptsA Detailed Look at the Simulation MethodBasics of Computerized SimulationAnalytical Building Blocks for Spatial SimulationAdvanced Elements of Computerized SimulationHybrid Trending-Simulation MethodsAdvanced

  8. About the National Forecast Chart

    Science.gov (United States)

    code. Press enter or select the go button to submit request Local forecast by "City, St" or Prediction Center on Twitter NCEP Quarterly Newsletter WPC Home Analyses and Forecasts National Forecast to all federal, state, and local government web resources and services. The National Forecast Charts

  9. Infusion of low dose glyceryl trinitrate has no consistent effect on burrowing behavior, running wheel activity and light sensitivity in female rats

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Sarah Louise T; Petersen, Steffen; Sørensen, Dorte Bratbo

    2016-01-01

    . In the current paper we have studied the effect of glyceryl trinitrate infusion on three different rat behaviors. Methods: The stability of burrowing behavior, running wheel activity and light sensitivity towards repeated testing was evaluated also with respect to estrous cycle. Finally, the effect of glyceryl...... trinitrate on these behaviors in female rats was observed. Results: Burrowing behavior and running wheel activity were stable in the individual rat between experiments. The burrowing behavior was significantly affected by the stage of estrous cycle. The other assays were stable throughout the cycle. None...

  10. Marine Point Forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    will link to the zone forecast and then allow further zooming to the point of interest whereas on the Honolulu, HI Chicago, IL Northern Indiana, IN Lake Charles, LA New Orleans, LA Boston, MA Caribou, ME

  11. Socioeconomic Forecasting : [Technical Summary

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    Because the traffic forecasts produced by the Indiana : Statewide Travel Demand Model (ISTDM) are driven by : the demographic and socioeconomic inputs to the model, : particular attention must be given to obtaining the most : accurate demographic and...

  12. NYHOPS Forecast Model Results

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — 3D Marine Nowcast/Forecast System for the New York Bight NYHOPS subdomain. Currents, waves, surface meteorology, and water conditions.

  13. Inflow forecasting at BPA

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McManamon, A. [Bonneville Power Administration, Portland, OR (United States)

    2007-07-01

    The Columbia River Power System operates with consideration for flood control, endangered species, navigation, irrigation, water supply, recreation, other fish and wildlife concerns and power production. The Bonneville Power Association (BPA) located in Portland, Oregon is responsible for 35-40 per cent of the power consumed within the region. This presentation discussed inflow power concerns at BPA. The presentation illustrated elevational relief of projects; annual and daily variability; the hydrologic cycle; national river service weather forecasting service (NRSWFS); components of NRSWFS; and hydrologic forecast locations. Project operations and inventory were included along with a comparison of the 71-year average unregulated flow with regulated flow at the Dalles. Consistency between short-term and long-term forecasts and long-term streamflow forecasts were also illustrated in graphical format. The presentation also discussed the issue of reducing model and parameter uncertainty; reducing initial conditions uncertainty; snow updating; and reducing meteorological uncertainty. tabs., figs.

  14. CCAA seasonal forecasting

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Integrating meteorological and indigenous knowledge-based seasonal climate forecasts in ..... Explanation is based on spiritual and social values. Taught by .... that provided medicine and food became the subject of strict rules and practices ...

  15. Forecast Icing Product

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Forecast Icing Product (FIP) is an automatically-generated index suitable for depicting areas of potentially hazardous airframe icing. The FIP algorithm uses...

  16. Conditional Probabilistic Population Forecasting

    OpenAIRE

    Sanderson, W.C.; Scherbov, S.; O'Neill, B.C.; Lutz, W.

    2003-01-01

    Since policy makers often prefer to think in terms of scenarios, the question has arisen as to whether it is possible to make conditional population forecasts in a probabilistic context. This paper shows that it is both possible and useful to make these forecasts. We do this with two different kinds of examples. The first is the probabilistic analog of deterministic scenario analysis. Conditional probabilistic scenario analysis is essential for policy makers it allows them to answer "what if"...

  17. Conditional probabilistic population forecasting

    OpenAIRE

    Sanderson, Warren; Scherbov, Sergei; O'Neill, Brian; Lutz, Wolfgang

    2003-01-01

    Since policy-makers often prefer to think in terms of alternative scenarios, the question has arisen as to whether it is possible to make conditional population forecasts in a probabilistic context. This paper shows that it is both possible and useful to make these forecasts. We do this with two different kinds of examples. The first is the probabilistic analog of deterministic scenario analysis. Conditional probabilistic scenario analysis is essential for policy-makers because it allows them...

  18. Conditional Probabilistic Population Forecasting

    OpenAIRE

    Sanderson, Warren C.; Scherbov, Sergei; O'Neill, Brian C.; Lutz, Wolfgang

    2004-01-01

    Since policy-makers often prefer to think in terms of alternative scenarios, the question has arisen as to whether it is possible to make conditional population forecasts in a probabilistic context. This paper shows that it is both possible and useful to make these forecasts. We do this with two different kinds of examples. The first is the probabilistic analog of deterministic scenario analysis. Conditional probabilistic scenario analysis is essential for policy-makers because...

  19. EU pharmaceutical expenditure forecast

    OpenAIRE

    Urbinati, Duccio; Rémuzat, Cécile; Kornfeld, Åsa; Vataire, Anne-Lise; Cetinsoy, Laurent; Aballéa, Samuel; Mzoughi, Olfa; Toumi, Mondher

    2014-01-01

    Background and Objectives: With constant incentives for healthcare payers to contain their pharmaceutical budgets, forecasting has become critically important. Some countries have, for instance, developed pharmaceutical horizon scanning units. The objective of this project was to build a model to assess the net effect of the entrance of new patented medicinal products versus medicinal products going off-patent, with a defined forecast horizon, on selected European Union (EU) Member States’ ph...

  20. Problems of Forecast

    OpenAIRE

    Kucharavy , Dmitry; De Guio , Roland

    2005-01-01

    International audience; The ability to foresee future technology is a key task of Innovative Design. The paper focuses on the obstacles to reliable prediction of technological evolution for the purpose of Innovative Design. First, a brief analysis of problems for existing forecasting methods is presented. The causes for the complexity of technology prediction are discussed in the context of reduction of the forecast errors. Second, using a contradiction analysis, a set of problems related to ...

  1. Assimilation and High Resolution Forecasts of Surface and Near Surface Conditions for the 2010 Vancouver Winter Olympic and Paralympic Games

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bernier, Natacha B.; Bélair, Stéphane; Bilodeau, Bernard; Tong, Linying

    2014-01-01

    A dynamical model was experimentally implemented to provide high resolution forecasts at points of interests in the 2010 Vancouver Olympics and Paralympics Region. In a first experiment, GEM-Surf, the near surface and land surface modeling system, is driven by operational atmospheric forecasts and used to refine the surface forecasts according to local surface conditions such as elevation and vegetation type. In this simple form, temperature and snow depth forecasts are improved mainly as a result of the better representation of real elevation. In a second experiment, screen level observations and operational atmospheric forecasts are blended to drive a continuous cycle of near surface and land surface hindcasts. Hindcasts of the previous day conditions are then regarded as today's optimized initial conditions. Hence, in this experiment, given observations are available, observation driven hindcasts continuously ensure that daily forecasts are issued from improved initial conditions. GEM-Surf forecasts obtained from improved short-range hindcasts produced using these better conditions result in improved snow depth forecasts. In a third experiment, assimilation of snow depth data is applied to further optimize GEM-Surf's initial conditions, in addition to the use of blended observations and forecasts for forcing. Results show that snow depth and summer temperature forecasts are further improved by the addition of snow depth data assimilation.

  2. Weighted halfspace depth

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Kotík, Lukáš; Hlubinka, D.; Vencálek, O.

    Vol. 46, č. 1 (2010), s. 125-148 ISSN 0023-5954 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : data depth * nonparametric multivariate analysis * strong consistency of depth * mixture of distributions Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research Impact factor: 0.461, year: 2010 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2010/SI/kotik-weighted halfspace depth.pdf

  3. Peak Wind Tool for General Forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barrett, Joe H., III

    2010-01-01

    The expected peak wind speed of the day is an important forecast element in the 45th Weather Squadron's (45 WS) daily 24-Hour and Weekly Planning Forecasts. The forecasts are used for ground and space launch operations at the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS). The 45 WS also issues wind advisories for KSC/CCAFS when they expect wind gusts to meet or exceed 25 kt, 35 kt and 50 kt thresholds at any level from the surface to 300 ft. The 45 WS forecasters have indicated peak wind speeds are challenging to forecast, particularly in the cool season months of October - April. In Phase I of this task, the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) developed a tool to help the 45 WS forecast non-convective winds at KSC/CCAFS for the 24-hour period of 0800 to 0800 local time. The tool was delivered as a Microsoft Excel graphical user interface (GUI). The GUI displayed the forecast of peak wind speed, 5-minute average wind speed at the time of the peak wind, timing of the peak wind and probability the peak speed would meet or exceed 25 kt, 35 kt and 50 kt. For the current task (Phase II ), the 45 WS requested additional observations be used for the creation of the forecast equations by expanding the period of record (POR). Additional parameters were evaluated as predictors, including wind speeds between 500 ft and 3000 ft, static stability classification, Bulk Richardson Number, mixing depth, vertical wind shear, temperature inversion strength and depth and wind direction. Using a verification data set, the AMU compared the performance of the Phase I and II prediction methods. Just as in Phase I, the tool was delivered as a Microsoft Excel GUI. The 45 WS requested the tool also be available in the Meteorological Interactive Data Display System (MIDDS). The AMU first expanded the POR by two years by adding tower observations, surface observations and CCAFS (XMR) soundings for the cool season months of March 2007 to April 2009. The POR was expanded

  4. An Integrated Modeling Approach for Forecasting Long-Term Energy Demand in Pakistan

    OpenAIRE

    Syed Aziz Ur Rehman; Yanpeng Cai; Rizwan Fazal; Gordhan Das Walasai; Nayyar Hussain Mirjat

    2017-01-01

    Energy planning and policy development require an in-depth assessment of energy resources and long-term demand forecast estimates. Pakistan, unfortunately, lacks reliable data on its energy resources as well do not have dependable long-term energy demand forecasts. As a result, the policy makers could not come up with an effective energy policy in the history of the country. Energy demand forecast has attained greatest ever attention in the perspective of growing population and diminishing fo...

  5. Long-range forecasting of intermittent streamflow

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Ogtrop, F. F.; Vervoort, R. W.; Heller, G. Z.; Stasinopoulos, D. M.; Rigby, R. A.

    2011-11-01

    Long-range forecasting of intermittent streamflow in semi-arid Australia poses a number of major challenges. One of the challenges relates to modelling zero, skewed, non-stationary, and non-linear data. To address this, a statistical model to forecast streamflow up to 12 months ahead is applied to five semi-arid catchments in South Western Queensland. The model uses logistic regression through Generalised Additive Models for Location, Scale and Shape (GAMLSS) to determine the probability of flow occurring in any of the systems. We then use the same regression framework in combination with a right-skewed distribution, the Box-Cox t distribution, to model the intensity (depth) of the non-zero streamflows. Time, seasonality and climate indices, describing the Pacific and Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures, are tested as covariates in the GAMLSS model to make probabilistic 6 and 12-month forecasts of the occurrence and intensity of streamflow. The output reveals that in the study region the occurrence and variability of flow is driven by sea surface temperatures and therefore forecasts can be made with some skill.

  6. Long-range forecasting of intermittent streamflow

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. F. van Ogtrop

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available Long-range forecasting of intermittent streamflow in semi-arid Australia poses a number of major challenges. One of the challenges relates to modelling zero, skewed, non-stationary, and non-linear data. To address this, a statistical model to forecast streamflow up to 12 months ahead is applied to five semi-arid catchments in South Western Queensland. The model uses logistic regression through Generalised Additive Models for Location, Scale and Shape (GAMLSS to determine the probability of flow occurring in any of the systems. We then use the same regression framework in combination with a right-skewed distribution, the Box-Cox t distribution, to model the intensity (depth of the non-zero streamflows. Time, seasonality and climate indices, describing the Pacific and Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures, are tested as covariates in the GAMLSS model to make probabilistic 6 and 12-month forecasts of the occurrence and intensity of streamflow. The output reveals that in the study region the occurrence and variability of flow is driven by sea surface temperatures and therefore forecasts can be made with some skill.

  7. Operational hydrological forecasting in Bavaria. Part II: Ensemble forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ehret, U.; Vogelbacher, A.; Moritz, K.; Laurent, S.; Meyer, I.; Haag, I.

    2009-04-01

    In part I of this study, the operational flood forecasting system in Bavaria and an approach to identify and quantify forecast uncertainty was introduced. The approach is split into the calculation of an empirical 'overall error' from archived forecasts and the calculation of an empirical 'model error' based on hydrometeorological forecast tests, where rainfall observations were used instead of forecasts. The 'model error' can especially in upstream catchments where forecast uncertainty is strongly dependent on the current predictability of the atrmosphere be superimposed on the spread of a hydrometeorological ensemble forecast. In Bavaria, two meteorological ensemble prediction systems are currently tested for operational use: the 16-member COSMO-LEPS forecast and a poor man's ensemble composed of DWD GME, DWD Cosmo-EU, NCEP GFS, Aladin-Austria, MeteoSwiss Cosmo-7. The determination of the overall forecast uncertainty is dependent on the catchment characteristics: 1. Upstream catchment with high influence of weather forecast a) A hydrological ensemble forecast is calculated using each of the meteorological forecast members as forcing. b) Corresponding to the characteristics of the meteorological ensemble forecast, each resulting forecast hydrograph can be regarded as equally likely. c) The 'model error' distribution, with parameters dependent on hydrological case and lead time, is added to each forecast timestep of each ensemble member d) For each forecast timestep, the overall (i.e. over all 'model error' distribution of each ensemble member) error distribution is calculated e) From this distribution, the uncertainty range on a desired level (here: the 10% and 90% percentile) is extracted and drawn as forecast envelope. f) As the mean or median of an ensemble forecast does not necessarily exhibit meteorologically sound temporal evolution, a single hydrological forecast termed 'lead forecast' is chosen and shown in addition to the uncertainty bounds. This can be

  8. Space Weather Forecasting at IZMIRAN

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaidash, S. P.; Belov, A. V.; Abunina, M. A.; Abunin, A. A.

    2017-12-01

    Since 1998, the Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere, and Radio Wave Propagation (IZMIRAN) has had an operating heliogeophysical service—the Center for Space Weather Forecasts. This center transfers the results of basic research in solar-terrestrial physics into daily forecasting of various space weather parameters for various lead times. The forecasts are promptly available to interested consumers. This article describes the center and the main types of forecasts it provides: solar and geomagnetic activity, magnetospheric electron fluxes, and probabilities of proton increases. The challenges associated with the forecasting of effects of coronal mass ejections and coronal holes are discussed. Verification data are provided for the center's forecasts.

  9. Synthesis of Pt nanoparticles and their burrowing into Si due to synergistic effects of ion beam energy losses

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pravin Kumar

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available We report the synthesis of Pt nanoparticles and their burrowing into silicon upon irradiation of a Pt–Si thin film with medium-energy neon ions at constant fluence (1.0 × 1017 ions/cm2. Several values of medium-energy neon ions were chosen in order to vary the ratio of the electronic energy loss to the nuclear energy loss (Se/Sn from 1 to 10. The irradiated films were characterized using Rutherford backscattering spectroscopy (RBS, atomic force microscopy (AFM, scanning electron microscopy (SEM, X-ray diffraction (XRD and high resolution transmission electron microscopy (HRTEM. A TEM image of a cross section of the film irradiated with Se/Sn = 1 shows ≈5 nm Pt NPs were buried up to ≈240 nm into the silicon. No silicide phase was detected in the XRD pattern of the film irradiated at the highest value of Se/Sn. The synergistic effect of the energy losses of the ion beam (molten zones are produced by Se, and sputtering and local defects are produced by Sn leading to the synthesis and burrowing of Pt NPs is evidenced. The Pt NP synthesis mechanism and their burrowing into the silicon is discussed in detail.

  10. ECOBIOLOGICAL STUDY ON BURROWING MUD LOBSTER THALASSINA ANOMALA (HERBST, 1804 (DECAPODA : THALASSINIDEA IN THE INTERTIDAL MANGROVE MUDFLAT OF DELTAIC SUNDARBANS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. K. Dubey

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Populations of mud lobster Thalassina anomala were studied on tidal flats in the Sagar island of Indian Sundarbans. Ecologically they are recognized as the 'friends of mangrove' and a 'Biological Marvel' of the system. They turn up the deep soil to the surface by regular night shift burrowing exercise and help to import aerated tidal water in the burrows 2 to 2.5 meter deep. They have extra ordinary morphological adaptation and structural changes and completely resort to detritivore diet. Being thigmotactic it seldom exposes to atmospheric oxygen and forms its palace underground with a central chamber having 5 to 6 radiated tunnels opening to the surface covered with earth mounds. It displays its engineering skill of bioturbation in tunneling. During tunneling the shrimp feeds on the mud packed with detritus and derived its required micronutrients. Being mud dwelling and mud eating habits, it's respiratory and food manipulating apparatus underwent transformations which demands intensive investigation. Thalassinid burrow associates comprising mieo and microorganisms also provide good subject of study of species specific interaction, exchanging of materials between associate partners.

  11. Incidence of plastic fragments among burrow-nesting seabird colonies on offshore islands in northern New Zealand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buxton, Rachel T; Currey, Caitlin A; Lyver, Philip O'B; Jones, Christopher J

    2013-09-15

    Marine plastic pollution is ubiquitous throughout the world's oceans, and has been found in high concentrations in oceanic gyres of both the northern and southern hemispheres. The number of studies demonstrating plastic debris at seabird colonies and plastic ingestion by adult seabirds has increased over the past few decades. Despite the recent discovery of a large aggregation of plastic debris in the South Pacific subtropical gyre, the incidence of plastics at seabird colonies in New Zealand is unknown. Between 2011 and 2012 we surveyed six offshore islands on the northeast coast of New Zealand's North Island for burrow-nesting seabird colonies and the presence of plastic fragments. We found non-research related plastic fragments (0.031 pieces/m(2)) on one island only, Ohinau, within dense flesh-footed shearwater (Puffinus carneipes) colonies. On Ohinau, we found a linear relationship between burrow density and plastic density, with 3.5 times more breeding burrows in areas with plastic fragments found. From these data we conclude that plastic ingestion is a potentially a serious issue for flesh-footed shearwaters in New Zealand. Although these results do not rule out plastic ingestion by other species, they suggest the need for further research on the relationship between New Zealand's pelagic seabirds and marine plastic pollution. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Failure to Burrow and Tunnel Reveals Roles for jim lovell in the Growth and Endoreplication of the Drosophila Larval Tracheae.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fanli Zhou

    Full Text Available The Drosophila protein Jim Lovell (Lov is a putative transcription factor of the BTB/POZ (Bric- a-Brac/Tramtrack/Broad/ Pox virus and Zinc finger domain class that is expressed in many elements of the developing larval nervous system. It has roles in innate behaviors such as larval locomotion and adult courtship. In performing tissue-specific knockdown with the Gal4-UAS system we identified a new behavioral phenotype for lov: larvae failed to burrow into their food during their growth phase and then failed to tunnel into an agarose substratum during their wandering phase. We determined that these phenotypes originate in a previously unrecognized role for lov in the tracheae. By using tracheal-specific Gal4 lines, Lov immunolocalization and a lov enhancer trap line, we established that lov is normally expressed in the tracheae from late in embryogenesis through larval life. Using an assay that monitors food burrowing, substrate tunneling and death we showed that lov tracheal knockdown results in tracheal fluid-filling, producing hypoxia that activates the aberrant behaviors and inhibits development. We investigated the role of lov in the tracheae that initiates this sequence of events. We discovered that when lov levels are reduced, the tracheal cells are smaller, more numerous and show lower levels of endopolyploidization. Together our findings indicate that Lov is necessary for tracheal endoreplicative growth and that its loss in this tissue causes loss of tracheal integrity resulting in chronic hypoxia and abnormal burrowing and tunneling behavior.

  13. Complexity and Dynamical Depth

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Terrence Deacon

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available We argue that a critical difference distinguishing machines from organisms and computers from brains is not complexity in a structural sense, but a difference in dynamical organization that is not well accounted for by current complexity measures. We propose a measure of the complexity of a system that is largely orthogonal to computational, information theoretic, or thermodynamic conceptions of structural complexity. What we call a system’s dynamical depth is a separate dimension of system complexity that measures the degree to which it exhibits discrete levels of nonlinear dynamical organization in which successive levels are distinguished by local entropy reduction and constraint generation. A system with greater dynamical depth than another consists of a greater number of such nested dynamical levels. Thus, a mechanical or linear thermodynamic system has less dynamical depth than an inorganic self-organized system, which has less dynamical depth than a living system. Including an assessment of dynamical depth can provide a more precise and systematic account of the fundamental difference between inorganic systems (low dynamical depth and living systems (high dynamical depth, irrespective of the number of their parts and the causal relations between them.

  14. Isotopic signatures (13C/12C; 15N/14N) of blue penguin burrow soil invertebrates : carbon sources and trophic relationships

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hawke, D.J.; Clark, J.M.

    2010-01-01

    Seabird burrows provide a soil environment for processing discards such as feathers and guano, hence constituting a primary interface between the sea and the land. This study involved collection and culturing of soil invertebrates from three blue penguin (Eudyptula minor) burrows, and examined their 13 C/ 12 C and 15 N/ 14 N isotopic composition in relation to potential burrow resources (terrestrial plant litter, burrow soil, guano, blue penguin feathers). Two taxa (cerylonid beetles and small tineid moth larvae) had a depleted 13 C/ 12 C indicative of a level of dependence on C from terrestrial soil. Tineid moth larvae (Monopis crocicapitella and (or) M. ethelella) substantially increased their 13 C/ 12 C enrichment during development, implying increasing dependence on marine C. Remaining taxa, both decomposers and predators, had 13 C/ 12 C intermediate between guano and feathers. Larval and emergent fleas had the most enriched 13 C/ 12 C , indicative of a greater dependence on feather C and the likelihood of co-processing with guano. Pseudoscorpions and histerid beetles had overlapping isotopic enrichments implying competition for prey, but were spatially separated in burrow soil. With their highly enriched 15 N/ 14 N and marine 13 C/ 12 C, larvae and protonymphs of the histiostomatid mite Myianoetus antipodus stood alone. Blue penguin burrows therefore support a diverse invertebrate fauna that incorporates terrestrial soil as well as varying proportions of the various blue penguin discards. (author). 45 refs., 1 fig., 1 tab.

  15. National Weather Service will stop using all caps in its forecasts |

    Science.gov (United States)

    Climate Oceans & Coasts Fisheries Satellites Research Marine & Aviation Charting Sanctuaries . NOAA's mission is to understand and predict changes in the Earth's environment, from the depths of the forecast tools and resources Climate data and reports Satellite imagery, reports, launch information

  16. Pre-Migratory Movements by Juvenile Burrowing Owls in a Patchy Landscape

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Danielle. Todd

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available Dispersal is a fundamental aspect of population dynamics, and can have direct implications on processes such as the colonization of habitat patches. Pre-migratory movements, landscape fragmentation, and body condition have all been hypothesized as key factors influencing dispersal in birds, but little direct evidence exists to support these ideas. We used radio-telemetry and supplementary feeding to test if body condition or landscape pattern influenced pre-migratory movements of juvenile Burrowing Owls (Athene cunicularia in a fragmented landscape. We categorized grassland patches as either large (≥95 ha or small and isolated (≤58 ha and ≥1.5 km to next nearest grassland patch, and young owls were either provided supplemental food as nestlings or not. Owlets receiving supplemental food and residing in large grassland patches moved a greater maximum distance from their nest than similarly fed owlets residing in small patches (large = 1605 ± 443 m; small = 373 ± 148 m. In contrast, non-supplemented owlets from large and small patches did not differ in their maximum distance moved from the nest (large = 745 ± 307 m; small 555 ± 286 m. Only two of 32 individuals from small patches moved >800 m, whereas ten of 23 owlets from large patches moved >800 m. In addition, owlets from large patches continued to move farther and farther from their nest before migration, whereas owlets in small, isolated patches ultimately moved

  17. Effects of radiotransmitter necklaces on behaviors of adult male western burrowing owls

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chipman, E.D.; McIntyre, N.E.; Ray, J.D.; Wallace, M.C.; Boal, C.W.

    2007-01-01

    We studied the behavioral effects of necklace-style radiotransmitters on breeding male western burrowing owls (Athene cunicularia hypugaea) in 2 areas of northwestern Texas, USA, in 2004 and 2005. We tested the hypothesis that transmittered owls would spend time interacting with their necklaces and as a result spend less time in vigilance and resting activities than would nontransmittered owls. Nontransmittered owls (n = 6) spent significantly more time being vigilant (P = 0.007) than did transmittered owls (n = 3) in 2004, who spent significant amounts of time interacting with their necklaces. In 2005, behaviors of transmittered owls (n = 8) were significantly different (P < 0.001) from control individuals (n = 4), but behaviors did not vary consistently by treatment period (prenecklace vs. necklace vs. postnecklace periods). Behavioral activity budgets varied considerably among individuals. Although the owls spent a significant amount of time interacting with their necklaces, they appeared to habituate to the presence of the transmitters within a relatively short period (<1 week), and necklaces did not affect survivorship or fitness in the short-term.

  18. Population structure of the burrowing crab Neohelice granulata (Brachyura, Varunidae in a southwestern Atlantic salt marsh

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sabrina Angeletti

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Neohelice granulata inhabits estuarine and protected coastal areas in temperate regions and is the most dominant decapod crustacean in the Bahía Blanca Estuary, Argentina. The population structure was studied during a year in a SW Atlantic salt marsh located in the Bahía Blanca Estuary. Crabs were sampled monthly from August 2010 to July 2011. The maximum observed density was 30 crabs m-2 in February and 70 burrows m-2 in May. The maximum carapace width (CW was 32 and 27.5 mm in males and females respectively. Medium size crabs were between 16 and 20 mm CW. Significantly smaller sized crabs were observed at the lower intertidal regions (P < 0.05. The sex ratio was favorable for males and was significantly different from the expected 1:1 (P < 0.05. The recruitment of unsexed juveniles crabs (CW <6.5 mm was observed throughout the year and the presence of ovigerous females from October to February indicated seasonal reproduction. The average size of ovigerous females was CW = 20.8 mm and the smallest ovigerous female measured was 16 mm CW. For the first time, the population structure of the most important macro-invertebrate is analyzed in the Bahía Blanca Estuary. This study may help to make decisions in the area, where anthropic action is progressing day by day.

  19. Assessment of storm forecast

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cutululis, Nicolaos Antonio; Hahmann, Andrea N.; Huus Bjerge, Martin

    When wind speed exceeds a certain value, wind turbines shut-down in order to protect their structure. This leads to sudden wind plants shut down and to new challenges concerning the secure operation of the pan-European electric system with future large scale offshore wind power. This task aims...... stopped, completely or partially, producing due to extreme wind speeds. Wind speed and power measurements from those events are presented and compared to the forecast available at Energinet.dk. The analysis looked at wind speed and wind power forecast. The main conclusion of the analysis is that the wind...... to consider it an EWP) and that the available wind speed forecasts are given as a mean wind speed over a rather large area. At wind power level, the analysis shows that prediction of accurate production levels from a wind farm experiencing EWP is rather poor. This is partially because the power curve...

  20. Financial Analysts’ Forecasts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stæhr, Simone

    . The primary focus is on financial analysts in the task of conducting earnings forecasts while a secondary focus is on investors’ abilities to interpret and make use of these forecasts. Simply put, financial analysts can be seen as information intermediators receiving inputs to their analyses from firm...... in the decision making and the magnitude of these constraints does sometimes vary with personal traits. Therefore, to the extent that financial analysts are subjects to behavioral biases their outputs to the investors are likely to be biased by their interpretation of information. Because investors need accuracy...... management and providing outputs to the investors. Amongst various outputs from the analysts are forecasts of earnings. According to decision theories mostly from the literature in psychology all humans are affected by cognitive constraints to some degree. These constraints may lead to unintentional biases...

  1. Wind power forecast

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pestana, Rui [Rede Electrica Nacional (REN), S.A., Lisboa (Portugal). Dept. Systems and Development System Operator; Trancoso, Ana Rosa; Delgado Domingos, Jose [Univ. Tecnica de Lisboa (Portugal). Seccao de Ambiente e Energia

    2012-07-01

    Accurate wind power forecast are needed to reduce integration costs in the electric grid caused by wind inherent variability. Currently, Portugal has a significant wind power penetration level and consequently the need to have reliable wind power forecasts at different temporal scales, including localized events such as ramps. This paper provides an overview of the methodologies used by REN to forecast wind power at national level, based on statistical and probabilistic combinations of NWP and measured data with the aim of improving accuracy of pure NWP. Results show that significant improvement can be achieved with statistical combination with persistence in the short-term and with probabilistic combination in the medium-term. NWP are also able to detect ramp events with 3 day notice to the operational planning. (orig.)

  2. Forecast of auroral activity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lui, A.T.Y.

    2004-01-01

    A new technique is developed to predict auroral activity based on a sample of over 9000 auroral sites identified in global auroral images obtained by an ultraviolet imager on the NASA Polar satellite during a 6-month period. Four attributes of auroral activity sites are utilized in forecasting, namely, the area, the power, and the rates of change in area and power. This new technique is quite accurate, as indicated by the high true skill scores for forecasting three different levels of auroral dissipation during the activity lifetime. The corresponding advanced warning time ranges from 22 to 79 min from low to high dissipation levels

  3. Forecasting Turbine Icing Events

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Davis, Neil; Hahmann, Andrea N.; Clausen, Niels-Erik

    2012-01-01

    In this study, we present a method for forecasting icing events. The method is validated at two European wind farms in with known icing events. The icing model used was developed using current ice accretion methods, and newly developed ablation algorithms. The model is driven by inputs from the WRF...... mesoscale model, allowing for both climatological estimates of icing and short term icing forecasts. The current model was able to detect periods of icing reasonably well at the warmer site. However at the cold climate site, the model was not able to remove ice quickly enough leading to large ice...

  4. Spatial load forecasting

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Willis, H.L.; Engel, M.V.; Buri, M.J.

    1995-04-01

    The reliability, efficiency, and economy of a power delivery system depend mainly on how well its substations, transmission lines, and distribution feeders are located within the utility service area, and how well their capacities match power needs in their respective localities. Often, utility planners are forced to commit to sites, rights of way, and equipment capacities year in advance. A necessary element of effective expansion planning is a forecast of where and how much demand must be served by the future T and D system. This article reports that a three-stage method forecasts with accuracy and detail, allowing meaningful determination of sties and sizes for future substation, transmission, and distribution facilities.

  5. Motivation with Depth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    DiSpezio, Michael A.

    2000-01-01

    Presents an illusional arena by offering experience in optical illusions in which students must apply critical analysis to their innate information gathering systems. Introduces different types of depth illusions for students to experience. (ASK)

  6. Forecasting Housing Approvals in Australia: Do Forecasters Herd?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stadtmann, Georg; Pierdzioch; Rülke

    2012-01-01

    Price trends in housing markets may reflect herding of market participants. A natural question is whether such herding, to the extent that it occurred, reflects herding in forecasts of professional forecasters. Using more than 6,000 forecasts of housing approvals for Australia, we did not find...

  7. Association of the "IUCN vulnerable "spiny rat Clyomys bishopi (Rodentia:Echimyidaewith palm trees and armadillo burrows in southeastern Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adriana A Bueno

    2004-12-01

    Full Text Available The globally vulnerable Clyomys bishopi ,a semi-fossorial and colonial rodent,is apparently limited to cerrado (savannah-like vegetationphysiognomies in São Paulo State,Brazil.The aim of the study was to verify whether the presence of C.bishopi is associated to the occurrence of palm trees (Attalea gearensis, Syagrus loefgrenii and armadillo burrows.Thirty six quadrats were placed in different physiognomies of cerrado vegetation at Itirapina Ecological Station,southeastern Brazil to survey the number of C.bishopi burrows of individuals of palm trees and burrows of armadillos.There was a strong dependence and association between the number of C.bishopi burrows and all measured variables (Contingency tables and Spearman rank correlations.It is suggested that this rodent can be found in great numbers where palm trees are abundant.The use of armadillo burrows possibly makes the movement of the rodents easier inside their own galleries.Rev.Biol. Trop. 52(4:1009-1011.Epub 2005 Jun 24.El roedor colonial Clyomys bishopi está aparentemente limitado a vegetación de semi-sabana (cerradoen el estado de São Paulo,Brasil.El objetivo de este estudio fue verificar si la presencia de C.bishopi está asociada a la individuos de las palmeras Attalea gearensis,Syagrus loefgrenii y madrigueras de armadillos.El estudio fue realizado en la Estación Ecológica de Itirapina,en el sureste de Brasil.Treinta y seis cuadrantes fueron dispuestos en diferentes fisionomías del la vegetación del cerrado para encuestar el número de madrigueras de C.bishopi, árboles individuales de palma y madrigueras de armadillos.Se calcularon tablas de contingencia y correlaciones de Sperman para evaluar, respectivamente, la dependencia y asociación entre el número de madrigueras de C.bishopi y las otras variables.Se encontró una fuerte dependencia y asociación entre el número de madrigueras de C.bishopi y todas las variables medidas.Esto sugiere que este roedor alcanza grandes

  8. CDM Convective Forecast Planning guidance

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The CDM Convective Forecast Planning (CCFP) guidance product provides a foreast of en-route aviation convective hazards. The forecasts are updated every 2 hours and...

  9. Are demand forecasting techniques applicable to libraries?

    OpenAIRE

    Sridhar, M. S.

    1984-01-01

    Examines the nature and limitations of demand forecasting, discuses plausible methods of forecasting demand for information, suggests some useful hints for demand forecasting and concludes by emphasizing unified approach to demand forecasting.

  10. Forecasting Water Waves and Currents: A Space-time Approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ambati, V.R.

    2008-01-01

    Forecasting water waves and currents in near shore and off shore regions of the seas and oceans is essential to maintain and protect our environment and man made structures. In wave hydrodynamics, waves can be classified as shallow and deep water waves based on its water depth. The mathematical

  11. Forecasting of superconducting compounds

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Savitskii, E.M.; Gribulya, V.G.; Kiseleva, N.N.

    1981-01-01

    In forecasting new superconducting intermetallic compounds of the A15 and Mo 3 Se types most promising from the viewpoint of high critical temperature Tsub(c), high critical magnetic fields Hsub(c), and high critical currents and in estimating their transition temperature it is proposed to apply cybernetic methods of computer learning

  12. Forecast of nuclear energetics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sikora, W

    1976-01-01

    The forecast concerning the development of nuclear energetics is presented. Some information on economics of nuclear power plants is given. The nuclear fuel reserves are estimated on the background of power resources of the world. The safety and environment protection problems are mentioned.

  13. Climate Forecast System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weather Service NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS home page Climate Forecast System Home News Organization Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services. The NCEP Climate when using the CFS Reanalysis (CFSR) data. Saha, Suranjana, and Coauthors, 2010: The NCEP Climate

  14. Foresight and Forecasts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kilbourn, Kyle; Bay, Marie Brøndum

    In predicting areas of growth, public innovation projects may rely on optimistic visions of technology still in development as a way of ensuring novelty for funding. This paper explores what happens when forecasts of robotic technology meets the practice of sterile supply in a preliminary stage...

  15. Hydrology and flow forecasting

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vrijling, J.K.; Kwadijk, J.; Van Duivendijk, J.; Van Gelder, P.; Pang, H.; Rao, S.Q.; Wang, G.Q.; Huang, X.Q.

    2002-01-01

    We have studied and applied the statistic model (i.e. MMC) and hydrological models to Upper Yellow River. This report introduces the results and some conclusions from the model. The three models, MMC, MWBM and NAM, have be applied in the research area. The forecasted discharge by the three models

  16. NWS Marine Forecast Areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    of Commerce Ocean Prediction Center National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Analysis & Unified Surface Analysis Ocean Ocean Products Ice & Icebergs NIC Ice Products NAIS Iceberg Analysis Social Media Facebook Twitter YouTube Search Search For Go NWS All NOAA NWS Marine Forecast Areas

  17. The Latest Forecast.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laurence, David

    2002-01-01

    Discusses the "latest forecast" for the future of English departments. Addresses departmental and institutional staffing practices, employment opportunities for PhDs, the acceleration of change in the institution, and the general state of the study and teaching of English. (RS)

  18. Ecological forecasts: An emerging imperative

    Science.gov (United States)

    James S. Clark; Steven R. Carpenter; Mary Barber; Scott Collins; Andy Dobson; Jonathan A. Foley; David M. Lodge; Mercedes Pascual; Roger Pielke; William Pizer; Cathy Pringle; Walter V. Reid; Kenneth A. Rose; Osvaldo Sala; William H. Schlesinger; Diana H. Wall; David Wear

    2001-01-01

    Planning and decision-making can be improved by access to reliable forecasts of ecosystem state, ecosystem services, and natural capital. Availability of new data sets, together with progress in computation and statistics, will increase our ability to forecast ecosystem change. An agenda that would lead toward a capacity to produce, evaluate, and communicate forecasts...

  19. Air Pollution Forecasts: An Overview

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bai, Lu; Wang, Jianzhou; Lu, Haiyan

    2018-01-01

    Air pollution is defined as a phenomenon harmful to the ecological system and the normal conditions of human existence and development when some substances in the atmosphere exceed a certain concentration. In the face of increasingly serious environmental pollution problems, scholars have conducted a significant quantity of related research, and in those studies, the forecasting of air pollution has been of paramount importance. As a precaution, the air pollution forecast is the basis for taking effective pollution control measures, and accurate forecasting of air pollution has become an important task. Extensive research indicates that the methods of air pollution forecasting can be broadly divided into three classical categories: statistical forecasting methods, artificial intelligence methods, and numerical forecasting methods. More recently, some hybrid models have been proposed, which can improve the forecast accuracy. To provide a clear perspective on air pollution forecasting, this study reviews the theory and application of those forecasting models. In addition, based on a comparison of different forecasting methods, the advantages and disadvantages of some methods of forecasting are also provided. This study aims to provide an overview of air pollution forecasting methods for easy access and reference by researchers, which will be helpful in further studies. PMID:29673227

  20. Air Pollution Forecasts: An Overview.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bai, Lu; Wang, Jianzhou; Ma, Xuejiao; Lu, Haiyan

    2018-04-17

    Air pollution is defined as a phenomenon harmful to the ecological system and the normal conditions of human existence and development when some substances in the atmosphere exceed a certain concentration. In the face of increasingly serious environmental pollution problems, scholars have conducted a significant quantity of related research, and in those studies, the forecasting of air pollution has been of paramount importance. As a precaution, the air pollution forecast is the basis for taking effective pollution control measures, and accurate forecasting of air pollution has become an important task. Extensive research indicates that the methods of air pollution forecasting can be broadly divided into three classical categories: statistical forecasting methods, artificial intelligence methods, and numerical forecasting methods. More recently, some hybrid models have been proposed, which can improve the forecast accuracy. To provide a clear perspective on air pollution forecasting, this study reviews the theory and application of those forecasting models. In addition, based on a comparison of different forecasting methods, the advantages and disadvantages of some methods of forecasting are also provided. This study aims to provide an overview of air pollution forecasting methods for easy access and reference by researchers, which will be helpful in further studies.

  1. Air Pollution Forecasts: An Overview

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lu Bai

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Air pollution is defined as a phenomenon harmful to the ecological system and the normal conditions of human existence and development when some substances in the atmosphere exceed a certain concentration. In the face of increasingly serious environmental pollution problems, scholars have conducted a significant quantity of related research, and in those studies, the forecasting of air pollution has been of paramount importance. As a precaution, the air pollution forecast is the basis for taking effective pollution control measures, and accurate forecasting of air pollution has become an important task. Extensive research indicates that the methods of air pollution forecasting can be broadly divided into three classical categories: statistical forecasting methods, artificial intelligence methods, and numerical forecasting methods. More recently, some hybrid models have been proposed, which can improve the forecast accuracy. To provide a clear perspective on air pollution forecasting, this study reviews the theory and application of those forecasting models. In addition, based on a comparison of different forecasting methods, the advantages and disadvantages of some methods of forecasting are also provided. This study aims to provide an overview of air pollution forecasting methods for easy access and reference by researchers, which will be helpful in further studies.

  2. Storm Prediction Center Forecast Products

    Science.gov (United States)

    select the go button to submit request Local forecast by "City, St" or "ZIP" City, St Archive NOAA Weather Radio Research Non-op. Products Forecast Tools Svr. Tstm. Events SPC Publications SPC services. Forecast Products Current Weather Watches This is the current graphic showing any severe

  3. Prestack depth migration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Postma, R.W.

    1991-01-01

    Two lines form the southern North Sea, with known velocity inhomogeneities in the overburden, have been pre-stack depth migrated. The pre-stack depth migrations are compared with conventional processing, one with severe distortions and one with subtle distortions on the conventionally processed sections. The line with subtle distortions is also compared with post-stack depth migration. The results on both lines were very successful. Both have already influenced drilling decisions, and have caused a modification of structural interpretation in the respective areas. Wells have been drilled on each of the lines, and well tops confirm the results. In fact, conventional processing led to incorrect locations for the wells, both of which were dry holes. The depth migrated sections indicate the incorrect placement, and on one line reveals a much better drilling location. This paper reports that even though processing costs are high for pre-stack depth migration, appropriate use can save millions of dollars in dry-hole expense

  4. Investigation of plutonium concentration and distribution in burrowing crayfish from the White Oak Creek floodplain

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Delaney, M.S.; Dahlman, R.C.; Craig, R.B.

    1979-01-01

    The White Oak floodplain was contaminated with several radionuclides, including /sup 239/Pu, during the Manhattan Project in 1944. Plutonium distribution in the soil is nonhomogeneous. An investigation was conducted to deterine Pu accumulation in a resident animal population. Crayfish were chosen because they complete their life-cycle within the contaminated environment, they directly contact contaminated muds, and they function in a food chain of significance to man. Two major conclusions of the research were that Pu concentrations in contaminated crayfish typically exceed those of control crayfish by two orders of magnitude and that if an incident were to occur in which a standard man ingested the soft tissues of ten crayfish from the floodplain, an insignificant whole body dose would accrue over the subsequent 50 years of life. The digestive tract of contaminated crayfish contained 21 to 33% of the Pu body burden, soft tissues contained 11 to 31% of the Pu body burden, and 48 to 62% of the Pu body burden of contaminated crayfish was associated with the carapace. Therefore, at a molt a large proportion of its accumulated Pu is deposited in the environment. A supplementary laboratory investigation using /sup 237/Pu included a chronic Pu uptake study by uncontaminated crayfish. In these crayfish, from 64 to 82% of the /sup 237/Pu was associated with the body tissues. Complementary data for /sup 237/Pu associated with the carapace ranged from 18 to 37% of the distribution. An inventory of /sup 239/Pu in crayfish at two sites on the floodplain was calculated by multiplying the estimated biomass of the crayfish by their average /sup 239/Pu concentration. This evaluation of Pu associated with the crayfish population was compared to an inventory of /sup 239/Pu in the soil in which they burrow and was found to be eight orders of magnitude less.

  5. Behavioral Correlations Associated with Fear of Humans Differ between Rural and Urban Burrowing Owls

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martina Carrete

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Behavioral studies are fundamental to understanding how animal populations face global change. Although much research has centered upon the idea that individuals can adaptively modify their behaviors to cope with environmental changes, recent evidence supports the existence of individual differences in suites of correlated behaviors. However, little is known about how selection can change these behavioral structures in populations subject to different environmental constraints. The colonization of urban environments by birds has been related to their inter-individual variability in their fear of humans, measured as their flight initiation distance to an approaching human, such that urban life would select for fearless individuals. This behavior has been demonstrated to be heritable and highly consistent throughout the adult lifespan of burrowing owls (Athene cunicularia. Here, we experimentally assessed, in field conditions, whether urban life involves changes in other behaviors such as exploration and antipredatory response through their correlation with fear of humans. Breeding urban birds were more fearless toward humans and were quicker to explore a new food resource and defend their nests from predators than their rural counterparts. However, while fear of humans positively correlated with exploration and antipredatory response in the rural population, it only correlated with exploration in the urban one. Predator release in urban environments could relax—and even counterselect—antipredator behaviors, thus dismantling the behavioral correlation existent in natural populations. Altogether, our results suggest that rural and urban animals may differ in some behavioral aspects, may be as a consequence of the selection processes acting during the colonization of urban areas as well as the different ecological environments encountered by individuals.

  6. Investigation of plutonium concentration and distribution in burrowing crayfish from the White Oak Creek floodplain

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Delaney, M.S.; Dahlman, R.C.; Craig, R.B.

    1979-01-01

    The White Oak floodplain was contaminated with several radionuclides, including 239 Pu, during the Manhattan Project in 1944. Plutonium distribution in the soil is nonhomogeneous. An investigation was conducted to deterine Pu accumulation in a resident animal population. Crayfish were chosen because they complete their life-cycle within the contaminated environment, they directly contact contaminated muds, and they function in a food chain of significance to man. Two major conclusions of the research were that Pu concentrations in contaminated crayfish typically exceed those of control crayfish by two orders of magnitude and that if an incident were to occur in which a standard man ingested the soft tissues of ten crayfish from the floodplain, an insignificant whole body dose would accrue over the subsequent 50 years of life. The digestive tract of contaminated crayfish contained 21 to 33% of the Pu body burden, soft tissues contained 11 to 31% of the Pu body burden, and 48 to 62% of the Pu body burden of contaminated crayfish was associated with the carapace. Therefore, at a molt a large proportion of its accumulated Pu is deposited in the environment. A supplementary laboratory investigation using 237 Pu included a chronic Pu uptake study by uncontaminated crayfish. In these crayfish, from 64 to 82% of the 237 Pu was associated with the body tissues. Complementary data for 237 Pu associated with the carapace ranged from 18 to 37% of the distribution. An inventory of 239 Pu in crayfish at two sites on the floodplain was calculated by multiplying the estimated biomass of the crayfish by their average 239 Pu concentration. This evaluation of Pu associated with the crayfish population was compared to an inventory of 239 Pu in the soil in which they burrow and was found to be eight orders of magnitude less

  7. Radon depth migration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hildebrand, S.T.; Carroll, R.J.

    1993-01-01

    A depth migration method is presented that used Radon-transformed common-source seismograms as input. It is shown that the Radon depth migration method can be extended to spatially varying velocity depth models by using asymptotic ray theory (ART) to construct wavefield continuation operators. These operators downward continue an incident receiver-array plane wave and an assumed point-source wavefield into the subsurface. The migration velocity model is constrain to have longer characteristic wavelengths than the dominant source wavelength such that the ART approximations for the continuation operators are valid. This method is used successfully to migrate two synthetic data examples: (1) a point diffractor, and (2) a dipping layer and syncline interface model. It is shown that the Radon migration method has a computational advantage over the standard Kirchhoff migration method in that fewer rays are computed in a main memory implementation

  8. Load forecasting for supermarket refrigeration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bacher, Peder; Madsen, Henrik; Aalborg Nielsen, Henrik

    This report presents a study of models for forecasting the load for supermarket refrigeration. The data used for building the forecasting models consists of load measurements, local climate measurements and weather forecasts. The load measurements are from a supermarket located in a village...... in Denmark. The load for refrigeration is the sum of all cabinets in the supermarket, both low and medium temperature cabinets, and spans a period of one year. As input to the forecasting models the ambient temperature observed near the supermarket together with weather forecasts are used. Every hour...

  9. Measuring depth in boreholes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hodson, G.M.

    1979-01-01

    This invention relates to a method of determining the depth of rock strata and other features of a borehole. It may be employed with particular advantage when access to the top of the borehole is difficult, for example in underwater operations. A radioactive marker, such as a source of gamma rays, is positioned near the top of the riser of a sub-sea wellhead structure. A radiation detector is lowered between the marker and a radioactive stratum and the length of line supplied is measured on the floating platform. This enables the depth of the stratum to be measured irrespective of tidal variations of the height of the platform. (U.K.)

  10. Why bother about depth?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stæhr, Peter A.; Obrador, Biel; Christensen, Jesper Philip

    We present results from a newly developed method to determine depth specific rates of GPP, NEP and R using frequent automated profiles of DO and temperature. Metabolic rate calculations were made for three lakes of different trophic status using a diel DO methodology that integrates rates across...

  11. Defining depth of anesthesia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shafer, S L; Stanski, D R

    2008-01-01

    In this chapter, drawn largely from the synthesis of material that we first presented in the sixth edition of Miller's Anesthesia, Chap 31 (Stanski and Shafer 2005; used by permission of the publisher), we have defined anesthetic depth as the probability of non-response to stimulation, calibrated against the strength of the stimulus, the difficulty of suppressing the response, and the drug-induced probability of non-responsiveness at defined effect site concentrations. This definition requires measurement of multiple different stimuli and responses at well-defined drug concentrations. There is no one stimulus and response measurement that will capture depth of anesthesia in a clinically or scientifically meaningful manner. The "clinical art" of anesthesia requires calibration of these observations of stimuli and responses (verbal responses, movement, tachycardia) against the dose and concentration of anesthetic drugs used to reduce the probability of response, constantly adjusting the administered dose to achieve the desired anesthetic depth. In our definition of "depth of anesthesia" we define the need for two components to create the anesthetic state: hypnosis created with drugs such as propofol or the inhalational anesthetics and analgesia created with the opioids or nitrous oxide. We demonstrate the scientific evidence that profound degrees of hypnosis in the absence of analgesia will not prevent the hemodynamic responses to profoundly noxious stimuli. Also, profound degrees of analgesia do not guarantee unconsciousness. However, the combination of hypnosis and analgesia suppresses hemodynamic response to noxious stimuli and guarantees unconsciousness.

  12. Forecasting military expenditure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tobias Böhmelt

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available To what extent do frequently cited determinants of military spending allow us to predict and forecast future levels of expenditure? The authors draw on the data and specifications of a recent model on military expenditure and assess the predictive power of its variables using in-sample predictions, out-of-sample forecasts and Bayesian model averaging. To this end, this paper provides guidelines for prediction exercises in general using these three techniques. More substantially, however, the findings emphasize that previous levels of military spending as well as a country’s institutional and economic characteristics particularly improve our ability to predict future levels of investment in the military. Variables pertaining to the international security environment also matter, but seem less important. In addition, the results highlight that the updated model, which drops weak predictors, is not only more parsimonious, but also slightly more accurate than the original specification.

  13. The forecaster's added value

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turco, M.; Milelli, M.

    2009-09-01

    To the authors' knowledge there are relatively few studies that try to answer this topic: "Are humans able to add value to computer-generated forecasts and warnings ?". Moreover, the answers are not always positive. In particular some postprocessing method is competitive or superior to human forecast (see for instance Baars et al., 2005, Charba et al., 2002, Doswell C., 2003, Roebber et al., 1996, Sanders F., 1986). Within the alert system of ARPA Piemonte it is possible to study in an objective manner if the human forecaster is able to add value with respect to computer-generated forecasts. Every day the meteorology group of the Centro Funzionale of Regione Piemonte produces the HQPF (Human QPF) in terms of an areal average for each of the 13 regional warning areas, which have been created according to meteo-hydrological criteria. This allows the decision makers to produce an evaluation of the expected effects by comparing these HQPFs with predefined rainfall thresholds. Another important ingredient in this study is the very dense non-GTS network of rain gauges available that makes possible a high resolution verification. In this context the most useful verification approach is the measure of the QPF and HQPF skills by first converting precipitation expressed as continuous amounts into ‘‘exceedance'' categories (yes-no statements indicating whether precipitation equals or exceeds selected thresholds) and then computing the performances for each threshold. In particular in this work we compare the performances of the latest three years of QPF derived from two meteorological models COSMO-I7 (the Italian version of the COSMO Model, a mesoscale model developed in the framework of the COSMO Consortium) and IFS (the ECMWF global model) with the HQPF. In this analysis it is possible to introduce the hypothesis test developed by Hamill (1999), in which a confidence interval is calculated with the bootstrap method in order to establish the real difference between the

  14. Forecasting carbon dioxide emissions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Xiaobing; Du, Ding

    2015-09-01

    This study extends the literature on forecasting carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by applying the reduced-form econometrics approach of Schmalensee et al. (1998) to a more recent sample period, the post-1997 period. Using the post-1997 period is motivated by the observation that the strengthening pace of global climate policy may have been accelerated since 1997. Based on our parameter estimates, we project 25% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2050 according to an economic and population growth scenario that is more consistent with recent global trends. Our forecasts are conservative due to that we do not have sufficient data to fully take into account recent developments in the global economy. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Forecasting potential crises

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Neufeld, W.P.

    1984-01-01

    Recently, the Trend Analysis Program (TAP) of the American Council of Life Insurance commissioned the Futures Group of Glastonbury, Connecticut, to examine the potential for large-scale catastrophic events in the near future. TAP was specifically concerned with five potential crises: the warming of the earth's atmosphere, the water shortage, the collapse of the physical infrastructure, the global financial crisis, and the threat of nuclear war. We are often unprepared to take action; in these cases, we lose an advantage we might have otherwise had. This is the whole idea behind forecasting: to foresee possibilities and to project how we can respond. If we are able to create forecasts against which we can test policy options and choices, we may have the luxury of adopting policies ahead of events. Rather than simply fighting fires, we have the option of creating a future more to our choosing. Short descriptions of these five potential crises and, in some cases, possible solutions are presented

  16. Body and skull morphometric variations between two shovel-headed species of Amphisbaenia (Reptilia: Squamata with morphofunctional inferences on burrowing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leandro dos Santos Lima Hohl

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Background Morphological descriptions comparing Leposternon microcephalum and L. scutigerum have been made previously. However, these taxa lack a formal quantitative morphological characterization, and comparative studies suggest that morphology and burrowing performance are be related. The excavatory movements of L. microcephalum have been described in detail. However, there is a lack of studies comparing locomotor patterns and/or performance among different amphisbaenids sharing the same skull shape. This paper presents the first study of comparative morphometric variations between two closely related amphisbaenid species, L. microcephalum and L. scutigerum, with functional inferences on fossorial locomotion efficiency. Methods Inter-specific morphometric variations were verified through statistical analyses of body and cranial measures of L. microcephalum and L. scutigerum specimens. Their burrowing activity was assessed through X-ray videofluoroscopy and then compared. The influence of morphological variation on the speed of digging was tested among Leposternon individuals. Results Leposternon microcephalum and L. scutigerum are morphometrically distinct species. The first is shorter and robust with a wider head while the other is more elongated and slim with a narrower head. They share the same excavatory movements. The animals analyzed reached relatively high speeds, but individuals with narrower skulls dug faster. A negative correlation between the speed and the width of skull was determined, but not with total length or diameter of the body. Discussion The morphometric differences between L. microcephalum and L. scutigerum are in accord with morphological variations previously described. Since these species performed the same excavation pattern, we may infer that closely related amphisbaenids with the same skull type would exhibit the same excavatory pattern. The negative correlation between head width and excavation speed is also

  17. The chemistry and mineralogy of haloed burrows in pelagic sediment at DOMES Site A: The equatorial North Pacific

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piper, D.Z.; Rude, P.D.; Monteith, S.

    1987-01-01

    The chemical and mineralogical composition of burrowed sediment, recovered in 66 box cores at latitude 9??25???N and longitude 151??15???W in the equatorial Pacific, demonstrates the important role of infauna in determining the geochemistry of pelagic sediment. Haloed burrows, approximately 3 cm across, were present in many of the cores. Within early Tertiary sediment that was covered by less than 5 cm of surface Quaternary sediment in several cores, the burrows in cross-section consist of three units: (1) a dark yellowish-brown central zone of Quaternary sediment surrounded, by (2) a pale yellowish-orange zone (the halo) of Tertiary sediment, which is surrounded by (3) a metal-oxide precipitate; the enclosing Tertiary sediment is dusky brown. Several elements - Mn, Ni, Cu, Co, Zn, Sb and Ce - have been leached from the light-colored halo, whereas Cr, Cs, Hf, Rb, Sc, Ta, Th, U, the rare earth elements exclusive of Ce, and the major oxides have not been leached. The metal-oxide zone, 1-5 mm thick, contains as much as 16% MnO2, as the mineral todorokite. The composition of the todorokite, exclusive of the admixed Tertiary sediment, resembles the composition of the metal deficit of the halo and also the composition of surface ferromanganese nodules that have been interpreted as having a predominantly diagenetic origin. Thus bioturbation contributes not only to the redistribution of metals within pelagic sediment, but also to the accretion of ferromanganese nodules on the sea floor. ?? 1987.

  18. Comparison of hydraulics and particle removal efficiencies in a mixed cell raceway and Burrows pond rearing system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moffitt, Christine M.

    2016-01-01

    We compared the hydrodynamics of replicate experimental mixed cell and replicate standard Burrows pond rearing systems at the Dworshak National Fish Hatchery, ID, in an effort to identify methods for improved solids removal. We measured and compared the hydraulic residence time, particle removal efficiency, and measures of velocity using several tools. Computational fluid dynamics was used first to characterize hydraulics in the proposed retrofit that included removal of the traditional Burrows pond dividing wall and establishment of four counter rotating cells with appropriate drains and inlet water jets. Hydraulic residence time was subsequently established in the four full scale test tanks using measures of conductivity of a salt tracer introduced into the systems both with and without fish present. Vertical and horizontal velocities were also measured with acoustic Doppler velocimetry in transects across each of the rearing systems. Finally, we introduced ABS sinking beads that simulated fish solids then followed the kinetics of their removal via the drains to establish relative purge rates. The mixed cell raceway provided higher mean velocities and a more uniform velocity distribution than did the Burrows pond. Vectors revealed well-defined, counter-rotating cells in the mixed cell raceway, and were likely contributing factors in achieving a relatively high particle removal efficiency-88.6% versus 8.0% during the test period. We speculate retrofits of rearing ponds to mixed cell systems will improve both the rearing environments for the fish and solids removal, improving the efficiency and bio-security of fish culture. We recommend further testing in hatchery production trials to evaluate fish physiology and growth.

  19. Forecasting oilfield economic performance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bradley, M.E.; Wood, A.R.O.

    1994-01-01

    This paper presents a general method for forecasting oilfield economic performance that integrates cost data with operational, reservoir, and financial information. Practices are developed for determining economic limits for an oil field and its components. The economic limits of marginal wells and the role of underground competition receive special attention. Also examined is the influence of oil prices on operating costs. Examples illustrate application of these concepts. Categorization of costs for historical tracking and projections is recommended

  20. Frost Forecasting for Fruitgrowers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martsolf, J. D.; Chen, E.

    1983-01-01

    Progress in forecasting from satellite data reviewed. University study found data from satellites displayed in color and used to predict frost are valuable aid to agriculture. Study evaluated scheme to use Earth-temperature data from Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite in computer model that determines when and where freezing temperatures endanger developing fruit crops, such as apples, peaches and cherries in spring and citrus crops in winter.

  1. Uranium price forecasting methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fuller, D.M.

    1994-01-01

    This article reviews a number of forecasting methods that have been applied to uranium prices and compares their relative strengths and weaknesses. The methods reviewed are: (1) judgemental methods, (2) technical analysis, (3) time-series methods, (4) fundamental analysis, and (5) econometric methods. Historically, none of these methods has performed very well, but a well-thought-out model is still useful as a basis from which to adjust to new circumstances and try again

  2. PyForecastTools

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2017-09-22

    The PyForecastTools package provides Python routines for calculating metrics for model validation, forecast verification and model comparison. For continuous predictands the package provides functions for calculating bias (mean error, mean percentage error, median log accuracy, symmetric signed bias), and for calculating accuracy (mean squared error, mean absolute error, mean absolute scaled error, normalized RMSE, median symmetric accuracy). Convenience routines to calculate the component parts (e.g. forecast error, scaled error) of each metric are also provided. To compare models the package provides: generic skill score; percent better. Robust measures of scale including median absolute deviation, robust standard deviation, robust coefficient of variation and the Sn estimator are all provided by the package. Finally, the package implements Python classes for NxN contingency tables. In the case of a multi-class prediction, accuracy and skill metrics such as proportion correct and the Heidke and Peirce skill scores are provided as object methods. The special case of a 2x2 contingency table inherits from the NxN class and provides many additional metrics for binary classification: probability of detection, probability of false detection, false alarm ration, threat score, equitable threat score, bias. Confidence intervals for many of these quantities can be calculated using either the Wald method or Agresti-Coull intervals.

  3. Seismic forecast using geostatistics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grecu, Valeriu; Mateiciuc, Doru

    2007-01-01

    The main idea of this research direction consists in the special way of constructing a new type of mathematical function as being a correlation between a computed statistical quantity and another physical quantity. This type of function called 'position function' was taken over by the authors of this study in the field of seismology with the hope of solving - at least partially - the difficult problem of seismic forecast. The geostatistic method of analysis focuses on the process of energy accumulation in a given seismic area, completing this analysis by a so-called loading function. This function - in fact a temporal function - describes the process of energy accumulation during a seismic cycle from a given seismic area. It was possible to discover a law of evolution of the seismic cycles that was materialized in a so-called characteristic function. This special function will help us to forecast the magnitude and the occurrence moment of the largest earthquake in the analysed area. Since 2000, the authors have been evolving to a new stage of testing: real - time analysis, in order to verify the quality of the method. There were five large earthquakes forecasts. (authors)

  4. Statistical methods for forecasting

    CERN Document Server

    Abraham, Bovas

    2009-01-01

    The Wiley-Interscience Paperback Series consists of selected books that have been made more accessible to consumers in an effort to increase global appeal and general circulation. With these new unabridged softcover volumes, Wiley hopes to extend the lives of these works by making them available to future generations of statisticians, mathematicians, and scientists."This book, it must be said, lives up to the words on its advertising cover: ''Bridging the gap between introductory, descriptive approaches and highly advanced theoretical treatises, it provides a practical, intermediate level discussion of a variety of forecasting tools, and explains how they relate to one another, both in theory and practice.'' It does just that!"-Journal of the Royal Statistical Society"A well-written work that deals with statistical methods and models that can be used to produce short-term forecasts, this book has wide-ranging applications. It could be used in the context of a study of regression, forecasting, and time series ...

  5. Urban pollution of sediments: Impact on the physiology and burrowing activity of tubificid worms and consequences on biogeochemical processes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pigneret, M., E-mail: mathilde.pigneret@univ-lyon1.fr [LEHNA, UMR CNRS 5023, Ecologie des Hydrosystèmes Naturels et Anthropisés, Université de Lyon, Université Lyon 1, ENTPE, 6 rue Raphael Dubois, 69622 Villeurbanne (France); Mermillod-Blondin, F.; Volatier, L.; Romestaing, C. [LEHNA, UMR CNRS 5023, Ecologie des Hydrosystèmes Naturels et Anthropisés, Université de Lyon, Université Lyon 1, ENTPE, 6 rue Raphael Dubois, 69622 Villeurbanne (France); Maire, E.; Adrien, J. [MATEIS, UMR CNRS 5510, INSA de Lyon, 25 avenue Jean Capelle, 69621 Villeurbanne (France); Guillard, L.; Roussel, D.; Hervant, F. [LEHNA, UMR CNRS 5023, Ecologie des Hydrosystèmes Naturels et Anthropisés, Université de Lyon, Université Lyon 1, ENTPE, 6 rue Raphael Dubois, 69622 Villeurbanne (France)

    2016-10-15

    In urban areas, infiltration basins are designed to manage stormwater runoff from impervious surfaces and allow the settling of associated pollutants. The sedimentary layer deposited at the surface of these structures is highly organic and multicontaminated (mainly heavy metals and hydrocarbons). Only few aquatic species are able to maintain permanent populations in such an extreme environment, including the oligochaete Limnodrilus hoffmeisteri. Nevertheless, the impact of urban pollutants on these organisms and the resulting influence on infiltration basin functioning remain poorly studied. Thus, the aim of this study was to determine how polluted sediments could impact the survival, the physiology and the bioturbation activity of L. hoffmeisteri and thereby modify biogeochemical processes occurring at the water-sediment interface. To this end, we conducted laboratory incubations of worms, in polluted sediments from infiltration basins or slightly polluted sediments from a stream. Analyses were performed to evaluate physiological state and burrowing activity (X-ray micro-tomography) of worms and their influences on biogeochemical processes (nutrient fluxes, CO{sub 2} and CH{sub 4} degassing rates) during 30-day long experiments. Our results showed that worms exhibited physiological responses to cope with high pollution levels, including a strong ability to withstand the oxidative stress linked to contamination with heavy metals. We also showed that the presence of urban pollutants significantly increased the burrowing activity of L. hoffmeisteri, demonstrating the sensitivity and the relevance of such a behavioural response as biomarker of sediment toxicity. In addition, we showed that X-ray micro-tomography was an adequate technique for accurate and non-invasive three-dimensional investigations of biogenic structures formed by bioturbators. The presence of worms induced stimulations of nutrient fluxes and organic matter recycling (between + 100% and 200% of CO

  6. The Application of TAPM for Site Specific Wind Energy Forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Merlinde Kay

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available The energy industry uses weather forecasts for determining future electricity demand variations due to the impact of weather, e.g., temperature and precipitation. However, as a greater component of electricity generation comes from intermittent renewable sources such as wind and solar, weather forecasting techniques need to now also focus on predicting renewable energy supply, which means adapting our prediction models to these site specific resources. This work assesses the performance of The Air Pollution Model (TAPM, and demonstrates that significant improvements can be made to only wind speed forecasts from a mesoscale Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP model. For this study, a wind farm site situated in North-west Tasmania, Australia was investigated. I present an analysis of the accuracy of hourly NWP and bias corrected wind speed forecasts over 12 months spanning 2005. This extensive time frame allows an in-depth analysis of various wind speed regimes of importance for wind-farm operation, as well as extreme weather risk scenarios. A further correction is made to the basic bias correction to improve the forecast accuracy further, that makes use of real-time wind-turbine data and a smoothing function to correct for timing-related issues. With full correction applied, a reduction in the error in the magnitude of the wind speed by as much as 50% for “hour ahead” forecasts specific to the wind-farm site has been obtained.

  7. Analysing UK real estate market forecast disagreement

    OpenAIRE

    McAllister, Patrick; Newell, G.; Matysiak, George

    2005-01-01

    Given the significance of forecasting in real estate investment decisions, this paper investigates forecast uncertainty and disagreement in real estate market forecasts. Using the Investment Property Forum (IPF) quarterly survey amongst UK independent real estate forecasters, these real estate forecasts are compared with actual real estate performance to assess a number of real estate forecasting issues in the UK over 1999-2004, including real estate forecast error, bias and consensus. The re...

  8. Effective Feature Preprocessing for Time Series Forecasting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhao, Junhua; Dong, Zhaoyang; Xu, Zhao

    2006-01-01

    Time series forecasting is an important area in data mining research. Feature preprocessing techniques have significant influence on forecasting accuracy, therefore are essential in a forecasting model. Although several feature preprocessing techniques have been applied in time series forecasting...... performance in time series forecasting. It is demonstrated in our experiment that, effective feature preprocessing can significantly enhance forecasting accuracy. This research can be a useful guidance for researchers on effectively selecting feature preprocessing techniques and integrating them with time...... series forecasting models....

  9. EU pharmaceutical expenditure forecast.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Urbinati, Duccio; Rémuzat, Cécile; Kornfeld, Åsa; Vataire, Anne-Lise; Cetinsoy, Laurent; Aballéa, Samuel; Mzoughi, Olfa; Toumi, Mondher

    2014-01-01

    With constant incentives for healthcare payers to contain their pharmaceutical budgets, forecasting has become critically important. Some countries have, for instance, developed pharmaceutical horizon scanning units. The objective of this project was to build a model to assess the net effect of the entrance of new patented medicinal products versus medicinal products going off-patent, with a defined forecast horizon, on selected European Union (EU) Member States' pharmaceutical budgets. This model took into account population ageing, as well as current and future country-specific pricing, reimbursement, and market access policies (the project was performed for the European Commission; see http://ec.europa.eu/health/healthcare/key_documents/index_en.htm). In order to have a representative heterogeneity of EU Member States, the following countries were selected for the analysis: France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Poland, Portugal, and the United Kingdom. A forecasting period of 5 years (2012-2016) was chosen to assess the net pharmaceutical budget impact. A model for generics and biosimilars was developed for each country. The model estimated a separate and combined effect of the direct and indirect impacts of the patent cliff. A second model, estimating the sales development and the risk of development failure, was developed for new drugs. New drugs were reviewed individually to assess their clinical potential and translate it into commercial potential. The forecast was carried out according to three perspectives (healthcare public payer, society, and manufacturer), and several types of distribution chains (retail, hospital, and combined retail and hospital). Probabilistic and deterministic sensitivity analyses were carried out. According to the model, all countries experienced drug budget reductions except Poland (+€41 million). Savings were expected to be the highest in the United Kingdom (-€9,367 million), France (-€5,589 million), and, far behind them

  10. Trait aggressiveness does not predict social dominance of rats in the Visible Burrow System.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buwalda, Bauke; Koolhaas, Jaap M; de Boer, Sietse F

    2017-09-01

    Hierarchical social status greatly influences health and well-being in mammals, including humans. The social rank of an individual is established during competitive encounters with conspecifics. Intuitively, therefore, social dominance and aggressiveness may seem intimately linked. Yet, whether an aggressive personality trait may predispose individuals to a particular rank in a social colony setting remains largely unclear. Here we tested the hypothesis that high trait aggressiveness in Wildtype Groningen (WTG) rats, as assessed in a classic resident-intruder offensive aggression paradigm predicts social dominance in a mixed-sex colony housing using the Visible Burrow System (VBS). We also hypothesized that hierarchical steepness, as reflected in the number and intensity of the social conflicts, positively correlates with the average level of trait aggressiveness of the male subjects in the VBS. Clear and stable hierarchical ranking was formed within a few days in VBS colonies as indicated and reflected by a rapid loss of body weight in subordinates which stabilized after 2-3days. Social conflicts, that occurred mainly during these first few days, also resulted in bite wounds in predominantly subordinate males. Data clearly showed that trait aggressiveness does not predict dominance status. The most aggressive male in a mixed sex group of conspecifics living in a closed VBS environment does not always become the dominant male. In addition, data did not convincingly indicate that in colonies with only highly aggressive males, agonistic interactions were more intense. Number of bite wounds and body weight loss did not positively correlate with trait-aggressiveness of subordinates. In this study, rats from this wild-derived rat strain behave differently from Long-Evans laboratory rats that have been studied up till now in many experiments using the VBS. Strain dependent differences in the capacity to display appropriate social behavior fitting an adaptive strategy to

  11. Evaluation of Probabilistic Disease Forecasts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hughes, Gareth; Burnett, Fiona J

    2017-10-01

    The statistical evaluation of probabilistic disease forecasts often involves calculation of metrics defined conditionally on disease status, such as sensitivity and specificity. However, for the purpose of disease management decision making, metrics defined conditionally on the result of the forecast-predictive values-are also important, although less frequently reported. In this context, the application of scoring rules in the evaluation of probabilistic disease forecasts is discussed. An index of separation with application in the evaluation of probabilistic disease forecasts, described in the clinical literature, is also considered and its relation to scoring rules illustrated. Scoring rules provide a principled basis for the evaluation of probabilistic forecasts used in plant disease management. In particular, the decomposition of scoring rules into interpretable components is an advantageous feature of their application in the evaluation of disease forecasts.

  12. Comparison of burrowing and stimuli-evoked pain behaviors as end-points in rat models of inflammatory pain and peripheral neuropathic pain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arjun eMuralidharan

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Establishment and validation of ethologically-relevant, non-evoked behavioral end-points as surrogate measures of spontaneous pain in rodent pain models has been proposed as a means to improve preclinical to clinical research translation in the pain field. Here, we compared the utility of burrowing behavior with hypersensitivity to applied mechanical stimuli for pain assessment in rat models of chronic inflammatory and peripheral neuropathic pain. Briefly, groups of male Sprague-Dawley rats were habituated to the burrowing environment and trained over a 5-day period. Rats that burrowed ≤450g of gravel on any two days of the individual training phase were excluded from the study. The remaining rats received either a unilateral intraplantar injection of Freund’s complete adjuvant (FCA or saline, or underwent unilateral chronic constriction injury (CCI of the sciatic nerve- or sham-surgery. Baseline burrowing behavior and evoked pain behaviors were assessed prior to model induction, and twice-weekly until study completion on day 14. For FCA- and CCI-rats, but not the corresponding groups of sham-rats, evoked mechanical hypersensitivity developed in a temporal manner in the ipsilateral hindpaws. Although burrowing behavior also decreased in a temporal manner for both FCA- and CCI-rats, there was considerable inter-animal variability. By contrast, mechanical hyperalgesia and mechanical allodynia in the ipsilateral hindpaws of FCA- and CCI-rats respectively, exhibited minimal inter-animal variability. Our data collectively show that burrowing behavior is altered in rodent models of chronic inflammatory pain and peripheral neuropathic pain. However, large group sizes are needed to ensure studies are adequately powered due to considerable inter-animal variability.

  13. Operational hydrological forecasting in Bavaria. Part I: Forecast uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ehret, U.; Vogelbacher, A.; Moritz, K.; Laurent, S.; Meyer, I.; Haag, I.

    2009-04-01

    In Bavaria, operational flood forecasting has been established since the disastrous flood of 1999. Nowadays, forecasts based on rainfall information from about 700 raingauges and 600 rivergauges are calculated and issued for nearly 100 rivergauges. With the added experience of the 2002 and 2005 floods, awareness grew that the standard deterministic forecast, neglecting the uncertainty associated with each forecast is misleading, creating a false feeling of unambiguousness. As a consequence, a system to identify, quantify and communicate the sources and magnitude of forecast uncertainty has been developed, which will be presented in part I of this study. In this system, the use of ensemble meteorological forecasts plays a key role which will be presented in part II. Developing the system, several constraints stemming from the range of hydrological regimes and operational requirements had to be met: Firstly, operational time constraints obviate the variation of all components of the modeling chain as would be done in a full Monte Carlo simulation. Therefore, an approach was chosen where only the most relevant sources of uncertainty were dynamically considered while the others were jointly accounted for by static error distributions from offline analysis. Secondly, the dominant sources of uncertainty vary over the wide range of forecasted catchments: In alpine headwater catchments, typically of a few hundred square kilometers in size, rainfall forecast uncertainty is the key factor for forecast uncertainty, with a magnitude dynamically changing with the prevailing predictability of the atmosphere. In lowland catchments encompassing several thousands of square kilometers, forecast uncertainty in the desired range (usually up to two days) is mainly dependent on upstream gauge observation quality, routing and unpredictable human impact such as reservoir operation. The determination of forecast uncertainty comprised the following steps: a) From comparison of gauge

  14. Global Energy Forecasting Competition 2012

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hong, Tao; Pinson, Pierre; Fan, Shu

    2014-01-01

    The Global Energy Forecasting Competition (GEFCom2012) attracted hundreds of participants worldwide, who contributed many novel ideas to the energy forecasting field. This paper introduces both tracks of GEFCom2012, hierarchical load forecasting and wind power forecasting, with details...... on the aspects of the problem, the data, and a summary of the methods used by selected top entries. We also discuss the lessons learned from this competition from the organizers’ perspective. The complete data set, including the solution data, is published along with this paper, in an effort to establish...

  15. Forecasting in Complex Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rundle, J. B.; Holliday, J. R.; Graves, W. R.; Turcotte, D. L.; Donnellan, A.

    2014-12-01

    Complex nonlinear systems are typically characterized by many degrees of freedom, as well as interactions between the elements. Interesting examples can be found in the areas of earthquakes and finance. In these two systems, fat tails play an important role in the statistical dynamics. For earthquake systems, the Gutenberg-Richter magnitude-frequency is applicable, whereas for daily returns for the securities in the financial markets are known to be characterized by leptokurtotic statistics in which the tails are power law. Very large fluctuations are present in both systems. In earthquake systems, one has the example of great earthquakes such as the M9.1, March 11, 2011 Tohoku event. In financial systems, one has the example of the market crash of October 19, 1987. Both were largely unexpected events that severely impacted the earth and financial systems systemically. Other examples include the M9.3 Andaman earthquake of December 26, 2004, and the Great Recession which began with the fall of Lehman Brothers investment bank on September 12, 2013. Forecasting the occurrence of these damaging events has great societal importance. In recent years, national funding agencies in a variety of countries have emphasized the importance of societal relevance in research, and in particular, the goal of improved forecasting technology. Previous work has shown that both earthquakes and financial crashes can be described by a common Landau-Ginzburg-type free energy model. These metastable systems are characterized by fat tail statistics near the classical spinodal. Correlations in these systems can grow and recede, but do not imply causation, a common source of misunderstanding. In both systems, a common set of techniques can be used to compute the probabilities of future earthquakes or crashes. In this talk, we describe the basic phenomenology of these systems and emphasize their similarities and differences. We also consider the problem of forecast validation and verification

  16. Flood Forecasting Based on TIGGE Precipitation Ensemble Forecast

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jinyin Ye

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available TIGGE (THORPEX International Grand Global Ensemble was a major part of the THORPEX (Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment. It integrates ensemble precipitation products from all the major forecast centers in the world and provides systematic evaluation on the multimodel ensemble prediction system. Development of meteorologic-hydrologic coupled flood forecasting model and early warning model based on the TIGGE precipitation ensemble forecast can provide flood probability forecast, extend the lead time of the flood forecast, and gain more time for decision-makers to make the right decision. In this study, precipitation ensemble forecast products from ECMWF, NCEP, and CMA are used to drive distributed hydrologic model TOPX. We focus on Yi River catchment and aim to build a flood forecast and early warning system. The results show that the meteorologic-hydrologic coupled model can satisfactorily predict the flow-process of four flood events. The predicted occurrence time of peak discharges is close to the observations. However, the magnitude of the peak discharges is significantly different due to various performances of the ensemble prediction systems. The coupled forecasting model can accurately predict occurrence of the peak time and the corresponding risk probability of peak discharge based on the probability distribution of peak time and flood warning, which can provide users a strong theoretical foundation and valuable information as a promising new approach.

  17. NSF's Perspective on Space Weather Research for Building Forecasting Capabilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bisi, M. M.; Pulkkinen, A. A.; Bisi, M. M.; Pulkkinen, A. A.; Webb, D. F.; Oughton, E. J.; Azeem, S. I.

    2017-12-01

    Space weather research at the National Science Foundation (NSF) is focused on scientific discovery and on deepening knowledge of the Sun-Geospace system. The process of maturation of knowledge base is a requirement for the development of improved space weather forecast models and for the accurate assessment of potential mitigation strategies. Progress in space weather forecasting requires advancing in-depth understanding of the underlying physical processes, developing better instrumentation and measurement techniques, and capturing the advancements in understanding in large-scale physics based models that span the entire chain of events from the Sun to the Earth. This presentation will provide an overview of current and planned programs pertaining to space weather research at NSF and discuss the recommendations of the Geospace Section portfolio review panel within the context of space weather forecasting capabilities.

  18. FORECASTING NEW PRODUCT SALES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Siriram

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available

    ENGLISH ABSTRACT: This paper tests the accuracy of using Linear regression, Logistics regression, and Bass curves in selected new product rollouts, based on sales data. The selected new products come from the electronics and electrical engineering and information and communications technology industries. The eight selected products are: electronic switchgear, electric motors, supervisory control and data acquisition systems, programmable logic controllers, cell phones, wireless modules, routers, and antennas. We compare the Linear regression, Logistics regression and Bass curves with respect to forecasting using analysis of variance. The accuracy of these three curves is studied and conclusions are drawn. We use an expert panel to compare the different curves and provide lessons for managers to improve forecasting new product sales. In addition, comparison between the two industries is drawn, and areas for further research are indicated.

    AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Hierdie artikel toets die akkuraatheid van die gebruik van linêere regressie, logistiese regressie en Bass-krommes by die bekendstelling van nuwe produkte gebaseer op verkoopsdata. Die geselekteerde nuwe produkte is uit die elektriese en elektroniese asook informasietegnologie- en kommunikasie bedrywe. Linêere regressie, logistiese regressie en Bass-krommes word vergelyk ten opsigte van vooruitskatting deur variansie te ontleed. Die akkuraatheid word ontleed en gevolgtrekkings gemaak. Die doel is om vooruitskatting van nuwe produkverkope te verbeter.

  19. Issues in Forecasting CMEs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pizzo, V. J.

    2017-12-01

    I will present my view of the current status of space weather forecasting abilities related to CMEs. This talk will address the large-scale aspects, but specifically not energetic particle phenomena. A key point is that all models, whether sophisticated numerical contraptions or quasi-empirical ones, are only as good as the data you feed them. Hence the emphasis will be on observations and analysis methods. First I will review where we stand with regard to the near-Sun quantitative data needed to drive any model, no matter how complex or simple-minded, and I will discuss technological roadblocks that suggest it may be some time before we see any meaningful improvements beyond what we have today. Then I cover issues related to characterizing CME propagation out through the corona and into interplanetary space, as well as to observational limitations in the vicinity of 1 AU. Since none of these observational constraints are likely to be resolved anytime soon, the real challenge is to make more informed use of what is available. Thus, this talk will focus on how we may identify and pursue the most profitable approaches, for both forecast and research applications. The discussion will highlight a number of promising leads, including those related to inclusion of solar backside information, joint magnetograph observations from L5 and Earth, how to use (not just run) ensembles, more rational use of HI observations, and suggestions for using cube-sats for deep space observations of CMEs and MCs.

  20. Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) [1 Deg.

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) is a weather forecast model made up of 21 separate forecasts, or ensemble members. The National Centers for Environmental...

  1. Shave-off depth profiling: Depth profiling with an absolute depth scale

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nojima, M.; Maekawa, A.; Yamamoto, T.; Tomiyasu, B.; Sakamoto, T.; Owari, M.; Nihei, Y.

    2006-01-01

    Shave-off depth profiling provides profiling with an absolute depth scale. This method uses a focused ion beam (FIB) micro-machining process to provide the depth profile. We show that the shave-off depth profile of a particle reflected the spherical shape of the sample and signal intensities had no relationship to the depth. Through the introduction of FIB micro-sampling, the shave-off depth profiling of a dynamic random access memory (DRAM) tip was carried out. The shave-off profile agreed with a blue print from the manufacturing process. Finally, shave-off depth profiling is discussed with respect to resolutions and future directions

  2. Guidelines for forecasting energy demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sonino, T.

    1976-11-01

    Four methodologies for forecasting energy demand are reviewed here after considering the role of energy in the economy and the analysis of energy use in different economic sectors. The special case of Israel is considered throughout, and some forecasts for energy demands in the year 2000 are presented. An energy supply mix that may be considered feasible is proposed. (author)

  3. Regional-seasonal weather forecasting

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Abarbanel, H.; Foley, H.; MacDonald, G.; Rothaus, O.; Rudermann, M.; Vesecky, J.

    1980-08-01

    In the interest of allocating heating fuels optimally, the state-of-the-art for seasonal weather forecasting is reviewed. A model using an enormous data base of past weather data is contemplated to improve seasonal forecasts, but present skills do not make that practicable. 90 references. (PSB)

  4. Forecasting the future of biodiversity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fitzpatrick, M. C.; Sanders, Nate; Ferrier, Simon

    2011-01-01

    , but their application to forecasting climate change impacts on biodiversity has been limited. Here we compare forecasts of changes in patterns of ant biodiversity in North America derived from ensembles of single-species models to those from a multi-species modeling approach, Generalized Dissimilarity Modeling (GDM...... climate change impacts on biodiversity....

  5. Forecasts: uncertain, inaccurate and biased?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nicolaisen, Morten Skou; Ambrasaite, Inga; Salling, Kim Bang

    2012-01-01

    Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA) is the dominating methodology for appraisal of transport infrastructure projects across the globe. In order to adequately assess the costs and benefits of such projects two types of forecasts are crucial to the validity of the appraisal. First are the forecasts of cons....... It is recommended that more attention is given to monitoring completed projects so future forecasts can benefit from better data availability through systematic ex-post evaluations, and an example of how to utilize such data in practice is presented.......Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA) is the dominating methodology for appraisal of transport infrastructure projects across the globe. In order to adequately assess the costs and benefits of such projects two types of forecasts are crucial to the validity of the appraisal. First are the forecasts...... of construction costs, which account for the majority of total project costs. Second are the forecasts of travel time savings, which account for the majority of total project benefits. The latter of these is, inter alia, determined by forecasts of travel demand, which we shall use as a proxy for the forecasting...

  6. Ensemble hydromoeteorological forecasting in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lucatero Villasenor, Diana

    forecasts where a dampening of the differences of precipitation quality occurs. Seasonal meteorological forecasts are possible due to changes of large scale patterns of the ocean and land, such as el Niño, that evolve at a much slower pace than the atmosphere, which can have an impact on its evolution later...

  7. Now, Here's the Weather Forecast...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richardson, Mathew

    2013-01-01

    The Met Office has a long history of weather forecasting, creating tailored weather forecasts for customers across the world. Based in Exeter, the Met Office is also home to the Met Office Hadley Centre, a world-leading centre for the study of climate change and its potential impacts. Climate information from the Met Office Hadley Centre is used…

  8. Method of forecasting power distribution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaneto, Kunikazu.

    1981-01-01

    Purpose: To obtain forecasting results at high accuracy by reflecting the signals from neutron detectors disposed in the reactor core on the forecasting results. Method: An on-line computer transfers, to a simulator, those process data such as temperature and flow rate for coolants in each of the sections and various measuring signals such as control rod positions from the nuclear reactor. The simulator calculates the present power distribution before the control operation. The signals from the neutron detectors at each of the positions in the reactor core are estimated from the power distribution and errors are determined based on the estimated values and the measured values to determine the smooth error distribution in the axial direction. Then, input conditions at the time to be forecast are set by a data setter. The simulator calculates the forecast power distribution after the control operation based on the set conditions. The forecast power distribution is corrected using the error distribution. (Yoshino, Y.)

  9. Energy forecasts, perspectives and methods

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Svensson, J E; Mogren, A

    1984-01-01

    The authors have analyzed different methods for long term energy prognoses, in particular energy consumption forecasts. Energy supply and price prognoses are also treated, but in a less detailed manner. After defining and discussing the various methods/models used in forecasts, a generalized discussion of the influence on the prognoses from the perspectives (background factors, world view, norms, ideology) of the prognosis makers is given. Some basic formal demands that should be asked from any rational forecast are formulated and discussed. The authors conclude that different forecasting methodologies are supplementing each other. There is no best method, forecasts should be accepted as views of the future from differing perspectives. The primary prognostic problem is to show the possible futures, selecting the wanted future is a question of political process.

  10. Oribatid mites (Acari: Oribatida) in casts and burrows of an endemic earthworm .i.Dendrobaena mrazeki./i. and in litter of thermophilous oak forests

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Starý, Josef; Pižl, Václav

    2007-01-01

    Roč. 26, č. 4 (2007), s. 390-397 ISSN 1335-342X R&D Projects: GA ČR GA206/03/0056 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z60660521 Keywords : soil oribatid mites * earthworms * casts and burrows Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 0.085, year: 2005

  11. Flea abundance, diversity, and plague in Gunnison's prairie dogs (Cynomys gunnisoni) and their burrows in montane grasslands in northern New Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Megan M. Friggens; Robert R. Parmenter; Michael Boyden; Paulette L. Ford; Kenneth Gage; Paul Keim

    2010-01-01

    Plague, a flea-transmitted infectious disease caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis, is a primary threat to the persistence of prairie dog populations (Cynomys spp.). We conducted a 3-yr survey (2004-2006) of fleas from Gunnison's prairie dogs (Cynomys gunnisoni) and their burrows in montane grasslands in Valles Caldera National Preserve in New Mexico. Our...

  12. Locomotory behaviour and functional morphology of Nematostella vectensis (Anthozoa: Actiniaria: Edwardsiidae): a contribution to a comparative study of burrowing behaviour in athenarian sea anemones

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Williams, R.B.

    2003-01-01

    The locomotory behaviour and functional morphology of English populations of a small (<2 cm long), burrowing athenarian sea anemone, Nematostella vectensis Stephenson, 1935 (= N. pellucida Crowell, 1946), which lives in soft mud in salt marshes and creeks, are described. Objectives were to ascertain

  13. The communicative process of weather forecasts issued in the probabilistic form

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alessio Raimondi

    2009-03-01

    Full Text Available One of the main purposes of weather forecasting is that of protecting weather-sensitive human activities. Forecasts issued in the probabilistic form have a higher informative content, as opposed to deterministic one, since they bear information that give also a measure of their own uncertainty. However, in order to make an appropriate and effective use of this kind of forecasts in an operational setting, communication becomes significatively relevant.The present paper, after having briefly examined the weather forecasts concerning Hurricane Charley (August 2004, tackles the issue of the communicative process in detail.The bottom line of this study is that for the weather forecast to achieve its best predictive potential, an in-depth analysis of communication issues is necessary.

  14. The communicative process of weather forecasts issued in the probabilistic form (Italian original version

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alessio Raimondi

    2009-03-01

    Full Text Available One of the main purposes of weather forecasting is that of protecting weather-sensitive human activities. Forecasts issued in the probabilistic form have a higher informative content, as opposed to deterministic one, since they bear information that give also a measure of their own uncertainty. However, in order to make an appropriate and effective use of this kind of forecasts in an operational setting, communication becomes significatively relevant.The present paper, after having briefly examined the weather forecasts concerning Hurricane Charley (August 2004, tackles the issue of the communicative process in detail.The bottom line of this study is that for the weather forecast to achieve its best predictive potential, an in-depth analysis of communication issues is necessary.

  15. Sirocco - Fukushima Forecast Description

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2011-01-01

    SYMPHONIE-NH is the non-hydrostatic ocean model following the Boussinesq hydrostatic SYMPHONIE-2010 model developed by the Sirocco system team (CNRS and Toulouse University). Both are using an Arakawa type finite difference method for the C grid. The R and D team generally gives priority to a physically based approach of modelling (global conservation of the mechanical energy, consistency of pressure and density, accuracy of the bottom pressure torque,...) that tends to favour low order and robust numerical schemes. Most of the physical and numerical options (Non-Hydrostatic, free surface, generalised coordinates combined to an ALE method,...) are particularly suitable for the coastal area. At the request of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA, March 14, 2011), SIROCCO is delivering every day a real time 6-day forecast bulletin of the dispersion in seawater of radionuclides emitted by the Fukushima nuclear plant. The simulations are based on the S2010.18 release of the 3D SIROCCO ocean circulation model. The system is operational since March 24 and the bulletin is available on an 'open-access' basis since March 28. The model uses a stretched horizontal grid with a variable horizontal resolution: from 600 m x 600 m at the nearest grid point from Fukushima, to 5 km x 5 km offshore. The initial fields (T, S, U, V, SSH) and the lateral open boundary conditions are provided by the Mercator PSY4V1R3 system (one field per day, horizontal resolution 1/12 deg. x 1/12 deg.). At the sea surface, the ocean model is forced by the meteorological fluxes delivered every 3 hours by ECMWF.i The tidal forcing at the lateral open boundaries is provided by the T-UGO model, implemented for this purpose by the SIROCCO team on the Japanese Pacific coast. Some details are given on the methodology: Bathymetry, Initialization and large scale forcing, Tides, Atmospheric forcing, Forecast protocol, and Scenario for radioactive tracers

  16. Sirocco - Fukushima Forecast Description

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2011-04-10

    SYMPHONIE-NH is the non-hydrostatic ocean model following the Boussinesq hydrostatic SYMPHONIE-2010 model developed by the Sirocco system team (CNRS and Toulouse University). Both are using an Arakawa type finite difference method for the C grid. The R and D team generally gives priority to a physically based approach of modelling (global conservation of the mechanical energy, consistency of pressure and density, accuracy of the bottom pressure torque,...) that tends to favour low order and robust numerical schemes. Most of the physical and numerical options (Non-Hydrostatic, free surface, generalised coordinates combined to an ALE method,...) are particularly suitable for the coastal area. At the request of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA, March 14, 2011), SIROCCO is delivering every day a real time 6-day forecast bulletin of the dispersion in seawater of radionuclides emitted by the Fukushima nuclear plant. The simulations are based on the S2010.18 release of the 3D SIROCCO ocean circulation model. The system is operational since March 24 and the bulletin is available on an 'open-access' basis since March 28. The model uses a stretched horizontal grid with a variable horizontal resolution: from 600 m x 600 m at the nearest grid point from Fukushima, to 5 km x 5 km offshore. The initial fields (T, S, U, V, SSH) and the lateral open boundary conditions are provided by the Mercator PSY4V1R3 system (one field per day, horizontal resolution 1/12 deg. x 1/12 deg.). At the sea surface, the ocean model is forced by the meteorological fluxes delivered every 3 hours by ECMWF.i The tidal forcing at the lateral open boundaries is provided by the T-UGO model, implemented for this purpose by the SIROCCO team on the Japanese Pacific coast. Some details are given on the methodology: Bathymetry, Initialization and large scale forcing, Tides, Atmospheric forcing, Forecast protocol, and Scenario for radioactive tracers

  17. Forecasting global atmospheric CO2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Agusti-Panareda, A.; Massart, S.; Boussetta, S.; Balsamo, G.; Beljaars, A.; Engelen, R.; Jones, L.; Peuch, V.H.; Chevallier, F.; Ciais, P.; Paris, J.D.; Sherlock, V.

    2014-01-01

    A new global atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) real-time forecast is now available as part of the preoperational Monitoring of Atmospheric Composition and Climate - Interim Implementation (MACC-II) service using the infrastructure of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Integrated Forecasting System (IFS). One of the strengths of the CO 2 forecasting system is that the land surface, including vegetation CO 2 fluxes, is modelled online within the IFS. Other CO 2 fluxes are prescribed from inventories and from off-line statistical and physical models. The CO 2 forecast also benefits from the transport modelling from a state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction (NWP) system initialized daily with a wealth of meteorological observations. This paper describes the capability of the forecast in modelling the variability of CO 2 on different temporal and spatial scales compared to observations. The modulation of the amplitude of the CO 2 diurnal cycle by near-surface winds and boundary layer height is generally well represented in the forecast. The CO 2 forecast also has high skill in simulating day-to-day synoptic variability. In the atmospheric boundary layer, this skill is significantly enhanced by modelling the day-to-day variability of the CO 2 fluxes from vegetation compared to using equivalent monthly mean fluxes with a diurnal cycle. However, biases in the modelled CO 2 fluxes also lead to accumulating errors in the CO 2 forecast. These biases vary with season with an underestimation of the amplitude of the seasonal cycle both for the CO 2 fluxes compared to total optimized fluxes and the atmospheric CO 2 compared to observations. The largest biases in the atmospheric CO 2 forecast are found in spring, corresponding to the onset of the growing season in the Northern Hemisphere. In the future, the forecast will be re-initialized regularly with atmospheric CO 2 analyses based on the assimilation of CO 2 products retrieved from satellite

  18. Institutional Strength in Depth

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weightman, M.

    2016-01-01

    Much work has been undertaken in order to identify, learn and implement the lessons from the TEPCO Fukushima Daiichi nuclear accident. These have mainly targeted on engineering or operational lessons. Less attention has been paid to the institutional lessons, although there have been some measures to improve individual peer reviews, particularly by the World Association of Nuclear Operators, and the authoritative IAEA report published in 2015 brought forward several important lessons for regulators and advocated a system approach. The report noted that one of the contributing factors the accident was the tendency of stakeholders not to challenge. Additionally, it reported deficiencies in the regulatory authority and system. Earlier, the root cause of the accident was identified by a Japanese independent parliamentary report as being cultural and institutional. The sum total of the institutions, the safety system, was ineffective. While it is important to address the many technical and operational lessons these may not necessary address this more fundamental lesson, and may not serve to provide robust defences against human or institutional failings over a wide variety of possible events and combinations. The overall lesson is that we can have rigorous and comprehensive safety standards and other tools in place to deliver high levels of safety, but ultimately what is important is the ability of the nuclear safety system to ensure that the relevant institutions diligently and effectively apply those standards and tools — to be robust and resilient. This has led to the consideration of applying the principles of the strength in depth philosophy to a nuclear safety system as a way of providing a framework for developing, assessing, reviewing and improving the system. At an IAEA conference in October 2013, a model was presented for a robust national nuclear safety system based on strength in depth philosophy. The model highlighted three main layers: industry, the

  19. Offshore Wind Technology Depth Zones

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Coastal bathymetric depth, measured in meters at depth values of: -30, -60, -900 Shallow Zone (0-30m): Technology has been demonstrated on a commercial scale at...

  20. Composite Phymatoderma from Neogene deep-marine deposits in Japan: Implications for Phanerozoic benthic interactions between burrows and the trace-makers of Chondrites and Phycosiphon

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kentaro Izumi

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Among composite trace fossils, one of the most common structures throughout the Phanerozoic are structures (e.g., dwelling trace, feeding trace reworked by Chondrites and/or Phycosiphon. However, differences in the nature of the reworking behaviors of these two ichnogenera remain unknown. Thus, in this study, composite Phymatoderma specimens from the Neogene deep-marine Shiramazu Formation in Japan, particularly those reworked by Chondrites and Phycosiphon, were analyzed to reveal the specific conditions that might control the activities of these trace-makers. Phymatoderma reworked by Phycosiphon is significantly larger than non-reworked Phymatoderma, whereas Phymatoderma reworked by Chondrites shows no significant difference in burrow diameter compared with non-reworked Phymatoderma. The recognized size selectivity (i.e., preference for larger burrows by the Phycosiphon trace-maker can be explained by considering the different feeding strategies of these two ichnogenera; namely deposit-feeding Phycosiphon-makers, which must have processed a significant mass of sediment to obtain sufficient organic matter, whereas chemosymbiotic Chondrites-producers did not require a lot of sediment to obtain nutrients. In order to test these interpretations, a dataset of Phanerozoic trace fossils reworked by Chondrites/Phycosiphon were compiled. Consequently, the Phycosiphon-producers’ preference toward relatively larger burrows was recognized, quantitatively supporting the results of this study. The compilation also indicates that the burrow size might have become one of the important limiting factors for the Phycosiphon-producers that tried to rework the sediments within previous subsurface burrows, at least for 80 million years.

  1. Burrower bugs (Heteroptera: Cydnidae) in peanut: seasonal species abundance, tillage effects, grade reduction effects, insecticide efficacy, and management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chapin, Jay W; Thomas, James S

    2003-08-01

    Pitfall traps placed in South Carolina peanut, Arachis hypogaea (L.), fields collected three species of burrower bugs (Cydnidae): Cyrtomenus ciliatus (Palisot de Beauvois), Sehirus cinctus cinctus (Palisot de Beauvois), and Pangaeus bilineatus (Say). Cyrtomenus ciliatus was rarely collected. Sehirus cinctus produced a nymphal cohort in peanut during May and June, probably because of abundant henbit seeds, Lamium amplexicaule L., in strip-till production systems. No S. cinctus were present during peanut pod formation. Pangaeus bilineatus was the most abundant species collected and the only species associated with peanut kernel feeding injury. Overwintering P. bilineatus adults were present in a conservation tillage peanut field before planting and two to three subsequent generations were observed. Few nymphs were collected until the R6 (full seed) growth stage. Tillage and choice of cover crop affected P. bilineatus populations. Peanuts strip-tilled into corn or wheat residue had greater P. bilineatus populations and kernel-feeding than conventional tillage or strip-tillage into rye residue. Fall tillage before planting a wheat cover crop also reduced burrower bug feeding on peanut. At-pegging (early July) granular chlorpyrifos treatments were most consistent in suppressing kernel feeding. Kernels fed on by P. bilineatus were on average 10% lighter than unfed on kernels. Pangaeus bilineatus feeding reduced peanut grade by reducing individual kernel weight, and increasing the percentage damaged kernels. Each 10% increase in kernels fed on by P. bilineatus was associated with a 1.7% decrease in total sound mature kernels, and kernel feeding levels above 30% increase the risk of damaged kernel grade penalties.

  2. Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2) Operational Forecasts

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2) produced by the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) is a fully coupled model representing the...

  3. Black Sea coastal forecasting system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. I. Kubryakov

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available The Black Sea coastal nowcasting and forecasting system was built within the framework of EU FP6 ECOOP (European COastalshelf sea OPerational observing and forecasting system project for five regions: the south-western basin along the coasts of Bulgaria and Turkey, the north-western shelf along the Romanian and Ukrainian coasts, coastal zone around of the Crimea peninsula, the north-eastern Russian coastal zone and the coastal zone of Georgia. The system operates in the real-time mode during the ECOOP project and afterwards. The forecasts include temperature, salinity and current velocity fields. Ecosystem model operates in the off-line mode near the Crimea coast.

  4. Magnetogram Forecast: An All-Clear Space Weather Forecasting System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barghouty, Nasser; Falconer, David

    2015-01-01

    Solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are the drivers of severe space weather. Forecasting the probability of their occurrence is critical in improving space weather forecasts. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) currently uses the McIntosh active region category system, in which each active region on the disk is assigned to one of 60 categories, and uses the historical flare rates of that category to make an initial forecast that can then be adjusted by the NOAA forecaster. Flares and CMEs are caused by the sudden release of energy from the coronal magnetic field by magnetic reconnection. It is believed that the rate of flare and CME occurrence in an active region is correlated with the free energy of an active region. While the free energy cannot be measured directly with present observations, proxies of the free energy can instead be used to characterize the relative free energy of an active region. The Magnetogram Forecast (MAG4) (output is available at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center) was conceived and designed to be a databased, all-clear forecasting system to support the operational goals of NASA's Space Radiation Analysis Group. The MAG4 system automatically downloads nearreal- time line-of-sight Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) magnetograms on the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) satellite, identifies active regions on the solar disk, measures a free-energy proxy, and then applies forecasting curves to convert the free-energy proxy into predicted event rates for X-class flares, M- and X-class flares, CMEs, fast CMEs, and solar energetic particle events (SPEs). The forecast curves themselves are derived from a sample of 40,000 magnetograms from 1,300 active region samples, observed by the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory Michelson Doppler Imager. Figure 1 is an example of MAG4 visual output

  5. Earthquake number forecasts testing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kagan, Yan Y.

    2017-10-01

    We study the distributions of earthquake numbers in two global earthquake catalogues: Global Centroid-Moment Tensor and Preliminary Determinations of Epicenters. The properties of these distributions are especially required to develop the number test for our forecasts of future seismic activity rate, tested by the Collaboratory for Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP). A common assumption, as used in the CSEP tests, is that the numbers are described by the Poisson distribution. It is clear, however, that the Poisson assumption for the earthquake number distribution is incorrect, especially for the catalogues with a lower magnitude threshold. In contrast to the one-parameter Poisson distribution so widely used to describe earthquake occurrences, the negative-binomial distribution (NBD) has two parameters. The second parameter can be used to characterize the clustering or overdispersion of a process. We also introduce and study a more complex three-parameter beta negative-binomial distribution. We investigate the dependence of parameters for both Poisson and NBD distributions on the catalogue magnitude threshold and on temporal subdivision of catalogue duration. First, we study whether the Poisson law can be statistically rejected for various catalogue subdivisions. We find that for most cases of interest, the Poisson distribution can be shown to be rejected statistically at a high significance level in favour of the NBD. Thereafter, we investigate whether these distributions fit the observed distributions of seismicity. For this purpose, we study upper statistical moments of earthquake numbers (skewness and kurtosis) and compare them to the theoretical values for both distributions. Empirical values for the skewness and the kurtosis increase for the smaller magnitude threshold and increase with even greater intensity for small temporal subdivision of catalogues. The Poisson distribution for large rate values approaches the Gaussian law, therefore its skewness

  6. 25 years of time series forecasting

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Gooijer, J.G.; Hyndman, R.J.

    2006-01-01

    We review the past 25 years of research into time series forecasting. In this silver jubilee issue, we naturally highlight results published in journals managed by the International Institute of Forecasters (Journal of Forecasting 1982-1985 and International Journal of Forecasting 1985-2005). During

  7. Estimates of Uncertainty around the RBA's Forecasts

    OpenAIRE

    Peter Tulip; Stephanie Wallace

    2012-01-01

    We use past forecast errors to construct confidence intervals and other estimates of uncertainty around the Reserve Bank of Australia's forecasts of key macroeconomic variables. Our estimates suggest that uncertainty about forecasts is high. We find that the RBA's forecasts have substantial explanatory power for the inflation rate but not for GDP growth.

  8. Recurrent networks for wave forecasting

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Mandal, S.; Prabaharan, N.

    , merchant vessel routing, nearshore construction, etc. more efficiently and safely. This paper presents an application of the Artificial Neural Network, namely Backpropagation Recurrent Neural Network (BRNN) with rprop update algorithm for wave forecasting...

  9. Ensemble forecasting of species distributions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Araújo, Miguel B; New, Mark

    2007-01-01

    Concern over implications of climate change for biodiversity has led to the use of bioclimatic models to forecast the range shifts of species under future climate-change scenarios. Recent studies have demonstrated that projections by alternative models can be so variable as to compromise their usefulness for guiding policy decisions. Here, we advocate the use of multiple models within an ensemble forecasting framework and describe alternative approaches to the analysis of bioclimatic ensembles, including bounding box, consensus and probabilistic techniques. We argue that, although improved accuracy can be delivered through the traditional tasks of trying to build better models with improved data, more robust forecasts can also be achieved if ensemble forecasts are produced and analysed appropriately.

  10. Forecasting and management of technology

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Roper, A. T

    2011-01-01

    .... The scope of this edition has broadened to include management of technology content that is relevant to now to executives in organizations while updating and strengthening the technology forecasting...

  11. Forecasting Croatian inbound tourism demand

    OpenAIRE

    Tica, Josip; Kožić, Ivan

    2015-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to present a forecasting model for the overnight stays of foreign tourists in Croatia. Tourism is one of the most important parts of the Croatian economy. It is particularly important in the context of the services sector. Regular and significant surpluses and the consumption of foreign guests are an important element of budget revenues, especially VAT. The ability to forecast the development of inbound tourism demand in a timely manner is crucial for both business...

  12. Preparing for an Uncertain Forecast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karolak, Eric

    2011-01-01

    Navigating the world of government relations and public policy can be a little like predicting the weather. One can't always be sure what's in store or how it will affect him/her down the road. But there are common patterns and a few basic steps that can help one best prepare for a change in the forecast. Though the forecast is uncertain, early…

  13. Forecasting with Dynamic Regression Models

    CERN Document Server

    Pankratz, Alan

    2012-01-01

    One of the most widely used tools in statistical forecasting, single equation regression models is examined here. A companion to the author's earlier work, Forecasting with Univariate Box-Jenkins Models: Concepts and Cases, the present text pulls together recent time series ideas and gives special attention to possible intertemporal patterns, distributed lag responses of output to input series and the auto correlation patterns of regression disturbance. It also includes six case studies.

  14. Forecasting market developments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weller, T.

    1997-01-01

    Traditional planning in essence consists of linear extrapolation of established facts and experience. This approach was good enough until recently, when progress would be relatively foreseeable within a stable system. The situation has been changing with developments and modifications in the global economic sector proceeding at accelerated pace, so that conventional planning methods become hopelessly inadequate. The past is of low significance to emerging markets; planners today have to keep abreast with and take into account the possible and emerging influencing factors. Experience is a factor to be replaced by intelligent analysis and conclusion within the framework of system networks. Modern scenario modelling methods are based on this approach: They are able to simulate and forecast a whole range of ''possible futures'', derived from perceivable trends. The article illustrates the novel planning methodology by assessing the future of the renewable energy sources, applying a computerized planning method (vision design) which is based on intelligent comparative analysis of all relevant trends. (Orig./RHM) [de

  15. Quantile forecast discrimination ability and value

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ben Bouallègue, Zied; Pinson, Pierre; Friederichs, Petra

    2015-01-01

    While probabilistic forecast verification for categorical forecasts is well established, some of the existing concepts and methods have not found their equivalent for the case of continuous variables. New tools dedicated to the assessment of forecast discrimination ability and forecast value are ...... is illustrated based on synthetic datasets, as well as for the case of global radiation forecasts from the high resolution ensemble COSMO-DE-EPS of the German Weather Service....

  16. Defence in depth perspectives

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Veneau, Tania; Ferrier, Agnes; Barbaud, Jean

    2017-01-01

    The Defence in Depth (DiD) concept was introduced to the field of nuclear safety in the sixties and early seventies. Even though it was not well developed at the beginning, the principles rapidly became close to those currently used. The concept was then composed of 3 levels, and was already associated with operating conditions. These principles have progressed over time and now there are five levels, including progressively situations issued from design extension conditions, to cope with severe accidents and dealing with accident management off-site. Indeed, human and organizational features are considered as a part of the safety provisions at all levels in an integrated approach that is not just related to reactor design. That's the current vision from IAEA, addressed first in INSAG 3 then in INSAG 10, and in the IAEA standards requirements currently addressed by SSR-2/1 superseding NS-R-1). These five levels of DiD are also referred to in other texts including WENRA documents in Europe, but also in the national requirements from different countries. Thus, the application of DiD principle has become a recognized international practice. The 2011 Fukushima Daiichi accidents, even if they raised many questions on nuclear safety issues, confirmed the merits of the DiD concept. Indeed, lessons learned from the accidents have reinforced the use of the DiD concept to ensure adequate safety. The discussions focused more on the implementation of the concept (how it has been or can be used in practice) than the concept itself, and in particular on the following subjects: the notion of level robustness, generally addressed separately from the levels definition, but playing an important role for the efficiency of the concept; the notion of levels independence and the need for strengthening them; the role of diversity to achieve levels independence. However, a prescription of additional diversity and independence across all safety levels could result in inappropriately

  17. Fennec dust forecast intercomparison over the Sahara in June 2011

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J.-P. Chaboureau

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available In the framework of the Fennec international programme, a field campaign was conducted in June 2011 over the western Sahara. It led to the first observational data set ever obtained that documents the dynamics, thermodynamics and composition of the Saharan atmospheric boundary layer (SABL under the influence of the heat low. In support to the aircraft operation, four dust forecasts were run daily at low and high resolutions with convection-parameterizing and convection-permitting models, respectively. The unique airborne and ground-based data sets allowed the first ever intercomparison of dust forecasts over the western Sahara. At monthly scale, large aerosol optical depths (AODs were forecast over the Sahara, a feature observed by satellite retrievals but with different magnitudes. The AOD intensity was correctly predicted by the high-resolution models, while it was underestimated by the low-resolution models. This was partly because of the generation of strong near-surface wind associated with thunderstorm-related density currents that could only be reproduced by models representing convection explicitly. Such models yield emissions mainly in the afternoon that dominate the total emission over the western fringes of the Adrar des Iforas and the Aïr Mountains in the high-resolution forecasts. Over the western Sahara, where the harmattan contributes up to 80 % of dust emission, all the models were successful in forecasting the deep well-mixed SABL. Some of them, however, missed the large near-surface dust concentration generated by density currents and low-level winds. This feature, observed repeatedly by the airborne lidar, was partly forecast by one high-resolution model only.

  18. Evaluation of Depth of Field for depth perception in DVR

    KAUST Repository

    Grosset, A.V.Pascal; Schott, Mathias; Bonneau, Georges-Pierre; Hansen, Charles D.

    2013-01-01

    In this paper we present a user study on the use of Depth of Field for depth perception in Direct Volume Rendering. Direct Volume Rendering with Phong shading and perspective projection is used as the baseline. Depth of Field is then added to see its impact on the correct perception of ordinal depth. Accuracy and response time are used as the metrics to evaluate the usefulness of Depth of Field. The onsite user study has two parts: static and dynamic. Eye tracking is used to monitor the gaze of the subjects. From our results we see that though Depth of Field does not act as a proper depth cue in all conditions, it can be used to reinforce the perception of which feature is in front of the other. The best results (high accuracy & fast response time) for correct perception of ordinal depth occurs when the front feature (out of the two features users were to choose from) is in focus and perspective projection is used. © 2013 IEEE.

  19. Evaluation of Depth of Field for depth perception in DVR

    KAUST Repository

    Grosset, A.V.Pascal

    2013-02-01

    In this paper we present a user study on the use of Depth of Field for depth perception in Direct Volume Rendering. Direct Volume Rendering with Phong shading and perspective projection is used as the baseline. Depth of Field is then added to see its impact on the correct perception of ordinal depth. Accuracy and response time are used as the metrics to evaluate the usefulness of Depth of Field. The onsite user study has two parts: static and dynamic. Eye tracking is used to monitor the gaze of the subjects. From our results we see that though Depth of Field does not act as a proper depth cue in all conditions, it can be used to reinforce the perception of which feature is in front of the other. The best results (high accuracy & fast response time) for correct perception of ordinal depth occurs when the front feature (out of the two features users were to choose from) is in focus and perspective projection is used. © 2013 IEEE.

  20. Evaluating long term forecasts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lady, George M. [Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts, Temple University, Philadelphia, PA 19122 (United States)

    2010-03-15

    The U.S. Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration (EIA), and its predecessor organizations, has published projections of U.S. energy production, consumption, distribution and prices annually for over 30 years. A natural issue to raise in evaluating the projections is an assessment of their accuracy compared to eventual outcomes. A related issue is the determination of the sources of 'error' in the projections that are due to differences between the actual versus realized values of the associated assumptions. One way to do this would be to run the computer-based model from which the projections are derived at the time the projected values are realized, using actual rather than assumed values for model assumptions; and, compare these results to the original projections. For long term forecasts, this approach would require that the model's software and hardware configuration be archived and available for many years, possibly decades, into the future. Such archival creates many practical problems; and, in general, it is not being done. This paper reports on an alternative approach for evaluating the projections. In the alternative approach, the model is run many times for cases in which important assumptions are changed individually and in combinations. A database is assembled from the solutions and a regression analysis is conducted for each important projected variable with the associated assumptions chosen as exogenous variables. When actual data are eventually available, the regression results are then used to estimate the sources of the differences in the projections of the endogenous variables compared to their eventual outcomes. The results presented here are for residential and commercial sector natural gas and electricity consumption. (author)

  1. The importance of scale-dependent ravine characteristics on breeding-site selection by the Burrowing Parrot, Cyanoliseus patagonus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Myriam Ramirez-Herranz

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available In birds, the environmental variables and intrinsic characteristics of the nest have important fitness consequences through its influence on the selection of nesting sites. However, the extent to which these variables interact with variables that operate at the landscape scale, and whether there is a hierarchy among the different scales that influences nest-site selection, is unknown. This interaction could be crucial in burrowing birds, which depend heavily on the availability of suitable nesting locations. One representative of this group is the burrowing parrot, Cyanoliseus patagonus that breeds on specific ravines and forms large breeding colonies. At a particular site, breeding aggregations require the concentration of adequate environmental elements for cavity nesting, which are provided by within ravine characteristics. Therefore, intrinsic ravine characteristics should be more important in determining nest site selection compared to landscape level characteristics. Here, we assess this hypothesis by comparing the importance of ravine characteristics operating at different scales on nest-site selection and their interrelation with reproductive success. We quantified 12 characteristics of 105 ravines in their reproductive habitat. For each ravine we quantified morphological variables, distance to resources and disturbance as well as nest number and egg production in order to compare selected and non-selected ravines and determine the interrelationship among variables in explaining ravine differences. In addition, the number of nests and egg production for each reproductive ravine was related to ravine characteristics to assess their relation to reproductive success. We found significant differences between non-reproductive and reproductive ravines in both intrinsic and extrinsic characteristics. The multidimensional environmental gradient of variation between ravines, however, shows that differences are mainly related to intrinsic

  2. Effects of the burrowing crab Chasmagnathus granulata (Dana on meiofauna of estuarine intertidal habitats of Patos Lagoon, Southern Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leonardo Cruz Rosa

    2005-03-01

    Full Text Available This study aimed to evaluate the effects of the burrowing crab Chasmagnathus granulata on meiofauna at three intertidal habitats across a tidal exposure gradient (i.e., an emerged salt marsh, an emerged mudflat and a submerged mudflat in an estuarine embayment of Patos Lagoon, Southern Brazil. Meiofauna community was dominated by nematodes and ostracods, following by copepods and turbellarians. Densities of all studied organisms varied significantly among habitats. Highest values were observed in submerged mudflat while lower in salt marsh. Nematodes were unaffected by crab in either habitat, whereas ostracod, copepod and turbellarian densities were significantly lower in disturbed than control areas in both mudflat habitats. Any meiofaunal group was affected in salt marsh, probably due to a less intense disturbance. The results showed that the burrowing crab C. granulata could play an important role on meiofauna community structure in estuarine intertidal habitats of Patos Lagoon, because crab disturbance seemed to affect mainly surface populations, especially in mudflat. However, the meiofauna response to crab disturbance was variable among habitats depending of the intensity and the frequency of the disturbance.Este trabalho avalia os efeitos do caranguejo Chasmagnathus granulata sobre a meiofauna em três ambientes intermareais, durante um prolongado período de exposição (uma marisma emersa, um plano de lama emerso e outro submerso, numa enseada estuarina da Lagoa dos Patos. Nematódeos e ostrácodes foram os organismos dominantes, seguidos por copépodes e turbelários. As densidades dos organismos variam significativamente entre os hábitats. As maiores densidades foram registradas no plano de lama submerso e as menores na marisma. Os nematódeos não foram afetados pelo caranguejo em nenhum hábitat. As densidades dos ostrácodes, copépodes e turbelários foram significativamente menores nos sedimentos perturbados do que nas

  3. Probabilistic energy forecasting: Global Energy Forecasting Competition 2014 and beyond

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hong, Tao; Pinson, Pierre; Fan, Shu

    2016-01-01

    The energy industry has been going through a significant modernization process over the last decade. Its infrastructure is being upgraded rapidly. The supply, demand and prices are becoming more volatile and less predictable than ever before. Even its business model is being challenged fundamenta......The energy industry has been going through a significant modernization process over the last decade. Its infrastructure is being upgraded rapidly. The supply, demand and prices are becoming more volatile and less predictable than ever before. Even its business model is being challenged...... fundamentally. In this competitive and dynamic environment, many decision-making processes rely on probabilistic forecasts to quantify the uncertain future. Although most of the papers in the energy forecasting literature focus on point or singlevalued forecasts, the research interest in probabilistic energy...

  4. Bayesian flood forecasting methods: A review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Shasha; Coulibaly, Paulin

    2017-08-01

    Over the past few decades, floods have been seen as one of the most common and largely distributed natural disasters in the world. If floods could be accurately forecasted in advance, then their negative impacts could be greatly minimized. It is widely recognized that quantification and reduction of uncertainty associated with the hydrologic forecast is of great importance for flood estimation and rational decision making. Bayesian forecasting system (BFS) offers an ideal theoretic framework for uncertainty quantification that can be developed for probabilistic flood forecasting via any deterministic hydrologic model. It provides suitable theoretical structure, empirically validated models and reasonable analytic-numerical computation method, and can be developed into various Bayesian forecasting approaches. This paper presents a comprehensive review on Bayesian forecasting approaches applied in flood forecasting from 1999 till now. The review starts with an overview of fundamentals of BFS and recent advances in BFS, followed with BFS application in river stage forecasting and real-time flood forecasting, then move to a critical analysis by evaluating advantages and limitations of Bayesian forecasting methods and other predictive uncertainty assessment approaches in flood forecasting, and finally discusses the future research direction in Bayesian flood forecasting. Results show that the Bayesian flood forecasting approach is an effective and advanced way for flood estimation, it considers all sources of uncertainties and produces a predictive distribution of the river stage, river discharge or runoff, thus gives more accurate and reliable flood forecasts. Some emerging Bayesian forecasting methods (e.g. ensemble Bayesian forecasting system, Bayesian multi-model combination) were shown to overcome limitations of single model or fixed model weight and effectively reduce predictive uncertainty. In recent years, various Bayesian flood forecasting approaches have been

  5. Dynamic SEP event probability forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kahler, S. W.; Ling, A.

    2015-10-01

    The forecasting of solar energetic particle (SEP) event probabilities at Earth has been based primarily on the estimates of magnetic free energy in active regions and on the observations of peak fluxes and fluences of large (≥ M2) solar X-ray flares. These forecasts are typically issued for the next 24 h or with no definite expiration time, which can be deficient for time-critical operations when no SEP event appears following a large X-ray flare. It is therefore important to decrease the event probability forecast with time as a SEP event fails to appear. We use the NOAA listing of major (≥10 pfu) SEP events from 1976 to 2014 to plot the delay times from X-ray peaks to SEP threshold onsets as a function of solar source longitude. An algorithm is derived to decrease the SEP event probabilities with time when no event is observed to reach the 10 pfu threshold. In addition, we use known SEP event size distributions to modify probability forecasts when SEP intensity increases occur below the 10 pfu event threshold. An algorithm to provide a dynamic SEP event forecast, Pd, for both situations of SEP intensities following a large flare is derived.

  6. Automation of energy demand forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siddique, Sanzad

    Automation of energy demand forecasting saves time and effort by searching automatically for an appropriate model in a candidate model space without manual intervention. This thesis introduces a search-based approach that improves the performance of the model searching process for econometrics models. Further improvements in the accuracy of the energy demand forecasting are achieved by integrating nonlinear transformations within the models. This thesis introduces machine learning techniques that are capable of modeling such nonlinearity. Algorithms for learning domain knowledge from time series data using the machine learning methods are also presented. The novel search based approach and the machine learning models are tested with synthetic data as well as with natural gas and electricity demand signals. Experimental results show that the model searching technique is capable of finding an appropriate forecasting model. Further experimental results demonstrate an improved forecasting accuracy achieved by using the novel machine learning techniques introduced in this thesis. This thesis presents an analysis of how the machine learning techniques learn domain knowledge. The learned domain knowledge is used to improve the forecast accuracy.

  7. Economic impact analysis of load forecasting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ranaweera, D.K.; Karady, G.G.; Farmer, R.G.

    1997-01-01

    Short term load forecasting is an essential function in electric power system operations and planning. Forecasts are needed for a variety of utility activities such as generation scheduling, scheduling of fuel purchases, maintenance scheduling and security analysis. Depending on power system characteristics, significant forecasting errors can lead to either excessively conservative scheduling or very marginal scheduling. Either can induce heavy economic penalties. This paper examines the economic impact of inaccurate load forecasts. Monte Carlo simulations were used to study the effect of different load forecasting accuracy. Investigations into the effect of improving the daily peak load forecasts, effect of different seasons of the year and effect of utilization factors are presented

  8. Urban runoff forecasting with ensemble weather predictions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Jonas Wied; Courdent, Vianney Augustin Thomas; Vezzaro, Luca

    This research shows how ensemble weather forecasts can be used to generate urban runoff forecasts up to 53 hours into the future. The results highlight systematic differences between ensemble members that needs to be accounted for when these forecasts are used in practice.......This research shows how ensemble weather forecasts can be used to generate urban runoff forecasts up to 53 hours into the future. The results highlight systematic differences between ensemble members that needs to be accounted for when these forecasts are used in practice....

  9. Two approaches to forecast Ebola synthetic epidemics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Champredon, David; Li, Michael; Bolker, Benjamin M; Dushoff, Jonathan

    2018-03-01

    We use two modelling approaches to forecast synthetic Ebola epidemics in the context of the RAPIDD Ebola Forecasting Challenge. The first approach is a standard stochastic compartmental model that aims to forecast incidence, hospitalization and deaths among both the general population and health care workers. The second is a model based on the renewal equation with latent variables that forecasts incidence in the whole population only. We describe fitting and forecasting procedures for each model and discuss their advantages and drawbacks. We did not find that one model was consistently better in forecasting than the other. Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  10. Emergence of burrowing urchins from California continental shelf sediments-A response to alongshore current reversals?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nichols, F.H.; Cacchione, D.A.; Drake, D.E.; Thompson, J.K.

    1989-01-01

    Two sequences of bottom photographs taken every two or four hours for two months during the Coastal Ocean Dynamics Experiment (CODE) off the Russian River, California, reveal the dynamic nature of interations between the water column, the sediments, and benthic organisms in the mid-shelf silt deposit. Time-lapse photographs taken between late spring and early summer in 1981 and 1982 show that the subsurface-dwelling urchin Brisaster latifrons (one of the largest invertebrates found in shelf-depth fine sediment off the U.S. Pacific coast) occasionally emerged from the sediment, plowed the sediment surface during the course of a few hours to several days, then buried themselves again. Frame-by-frame study of the film sequences shows that the urchins typically emerged following relaxation of coastal upwelling, periods characterized by current direction reversals and increases in bottom water turbidity. Among the possible causes of the emergence of urchins and the consequent bioturbation of the upper few cm of sediment, a response to an enhanced food supply seems most plausible. Circumstantial evidence suggests the possibility that phytoplankton sedimentation during periods of upwelling relaxation could provide a new source of food at the sediment surface. ?? 1989.

  11. Medium Range Forecasts Representation (and Long Range Forecasts?)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vincendon, J.-C.

    2009-09-01

    The progress of the numerical forecasts urges us to interest us in more and more distant ranges. We thus supply more and more forecasts with term of some days. Nevertheless, precautions of use are necessary to give the most reliable and the most relevant possible information. Available in a TV bulletin or on quite other support (Internet, mobile phone), the interpretation and the representation of a medium range forecast (5 - 15 days) must be different from those of a short range forecast. Indeed, the "foresee-ability” of a meteorological phenomenon decreases gradually in the course of the ranges, it decreases all the more quickly that the phenomenon is of small scale. So, at the end of some days, the probability character of a forecast becomes very widely dominating. That is why in Meteo-France the forecasts of D+4 to D+7 are accompanied with a confidence index since around ten years. It is a figure between 1 and 5: the more we approach 5, the more the confidence in the supplied forecast is good. In the practice, an indication is supplied for period D+4 / D+5, the other one for period D+6 / D+7, every day being able to benefit from a different forecast, that is be represented in a independent way. We thus supply a global tendency over 24 hours with less and less precise symbols as the range goes away. Concrete examples will be presented. From now on two years, we also publish forecasts to D+8 / J+9, accompanied with a sign of confidence (" good reliability " or " to confirm "). These two days are grouped together on a single map because for us, the described tendency to this term is relevant on a duration about 48 hours with a spatial scale slightly superior to the synoptic scale. So, we avoid producing more than two zones of types of weather over France and we content with giving an evolution for the temperatures (still, in increase or in decline). Newspapers began to publish this information, it should soon be the case of televisions. It is particularly

  12. Population biology of the burrowing crab Neohelice granulata, (Crustacea: Decapoda: Varunidae from a tropical mangrove in Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rafael A. Gregati

    2009-03-01

    Full Text Available The population biology of the burrowing crab Neohelice granulata (Dana, 1851 from a mangrove in Jabaquara Beach, Paraty, state of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil (23º13'04"S and 44º42'47"W, was studied with respect to the following traits: size-frequency distribution, recruitment, reproductive period, fecundity, and sex ratio. Specimens were sampled monthly from April, 2003 to March, 2004, at the river margins during low tide periods. Size, sex, presence of eggs, and stage of the female gonad were recorded. Ovigerous females had their eggs removed and counted. The reproductive period was continuous and the highest frequency of ovigerous females was recorded in the fall and winter. Mature gonads were found throughout the year and recruitment was continuous but more intense during the summer. The fecundity of N. granulata (30028.3 ± 10861.2 eggs was high in comparison to studies in other localities. In general, the proportion of males was similar to that of females (1:0.92; however, males were predominant in the fall (1:0.77 and winter (1:0.75. All the information available so far on the reproduction of N. granulata involves populations from subtropical salt marshes; therefore, comparative studies including other habitats, such as mangrove forests, are needed to further understand the environmental influences on the population and reproductive biology of semiterrestrial crabs.

  13. A case of leucism in the burrowing owl Athene cunicularia (Aves: Strigiformes with confirmation of species identity using cytogenetic analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Denise M Nogueira

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available Leucism is an inherited disorder, characterized by the lack of pigments in part or all of the body, normal coloration of the eyes and, in birds, in naked parts such as the bill and legs. This kind of disorder is sometimes erroneously designated as albinism or partial albinism. In this study, we present a case of leucism in a wild owl. The studied individual presented completely white plumage, light-yellow coloration of legs and bill and normal coloration of eyes. According to morphological features, this owl is a specimen of burrowing owl, Athene cunicularia (Molina, 1782. To confirm the species identity, we used cytogenetic analyses for karyotypic determination, comparing it to the previously described one in the literature. We also studied a captive female of A. cunicularia to complement the species karyotype, which was described in the literature based only on a single male. The karyotype of the leucistic owl individual was compatible with the previously published one for A. cunicularia, confirming the bird was a male specimen. Cytogenetic analysis of the captive female showed that the W sex chromosome is metacentric and comparable to the seventh pair in size. This is the first description of a case of leucism in A. cunicularia for South America. Long-term studies are needed in the Neotropical region to evaluate survival and breeding success in leucistic birds.

  14. Uncertainties in Forecasting Streamflow using Entropy Theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cui, H.; Singh, V. P.

    2017-12-01

    Streamflow forecasting is essential in river restoration, reservoir operation, power generation, irrigation, navigation, and water management. However, there is always uncertainties accompanied in forecast, which may affect the forecasting results and lead to large variations. Therefore, uncertainties must be considered and be assessed properly when forecasting streamflow for water management. The aim of our work is to quantify the uncertainties involved in forecasting streamflow and provide reliable streamflow forecast. Despite that streamflow time series are stochastic, they exhibit seasonal and periodic patterns. Therefore, streamflow forecasting entails modeling seasonality, periodicity, and its correlation structure, and assessing uncertainties. This study applies entropy theory to forecast streamflow and measure uncertainties during the forecasting process. To apply entropy theory for streamflow forecasting, spectral analysis is combined to time series analysis, as spectral analysis can be employed to characterize patterns of streamflow variation and identify the periodicity of streamflow. That is, it permits to extract significant information for understanding the streamflow process and prediction thereof. Application of entropy theory for streamflow forecasting involves determination of spectral density, determination of parameters, and extension of autocorrelation function. The uncertainties brought by precipitation input, forecasting model and forecasted results are measured separately using entropy. With information theory, how these uncertainties transported and aggregated during these processes will be described.

  15. Forecast Combination under Heavy-Tailed Errors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gang Cheng

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Forecast combination has been proven to be a very important technique to obtain accurate predictions for various applications in economics, finance, marketing and many other areas. In many applications, forecast errors exhibit heavy-tailed behaviors for various reasons. Unfortunately, to our knowledge, little has been done to obtain reliable forecast combinations for such situations. The familiar forecast combination methods, such as simple average, least squares regression or those based on the variance-covariance of the forecasts, may perform very poorly due to the fact that outliers tend to occur, and they make these methods have unstable weights, leading to un-robust forecasts. To address this problem, in this paper, we propose two nonparametric forecast combination methods. One is specially proposed for the situations in which the forecast errors are strongly believed to have heavy tails that can be modeled by a scaled Student’s t-distribution; the other is designed for relatively more general situations when there is a lack of strong or consistent evidence on the tail behaviors of the forecast errors due to a shortage of data and/or an evolving data-generating process. Adaptive risk bounds of both methods are developed. They show that the resulting combined forecasts yield near optimal mean forecast errors relative to the candidate forecasts. Simulations and a real example demonstrate their superior performance in that they indeed tend to have significantly smaller prediction errors than the previous combination methods in the presence of forecast outliers.

  16. Forecasting Macroeconomic Labour Market Flows

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wilke, Ralf

    2017-01-01

    Forecasting labour market flows is important for budgeting and decision-making in government departments and public administration. Macroeconomic forecasts are normally obtained from time series data. In this article, we follow another approach that uses individual-level statistical analysis...... to predict the number of exits out of unemployment insurance claims. We present a comparative study of econometric, actuarial and statistical methodologies that base on different data structures. The results with records of the German unemployment insurance suggest that prediction based on individual-level...

  17. Forecast communication through the newspaper Part 1: Framing the forecaster

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harris, Andrew J. L.

    2015-04-01

    This review is split into two parts both of which address issues of forecast communication of an environmental disaster through the newspaper during a period of crisis. The first part explores the process by which information passes from the scientist or forecaster, through the media filter, to the public. As part of this filter preference, omission, selection of data, source, quote and story, as well as placement of the same information within an individual piece or within the newspaper itself, can serve to distort the message. The result is the introduction of bias and slant—that is, the message becomes distorted so as to favor one side of the argument against another as it passes through the filter. Bias can be used to support spin or agenda setting, so that a particular emphasis becomes placed on the story which exerts an influence on the reader's judgment. The net result of the filter components is either a negative (contrary) or positive (supportive) frame. Tabloidization of the news has also resulted in the use of strong, evocative, exaggerated words, headlines and images to support a frame. I illustrate these various elements of the media filter using coverage of the air space closure due to the April 2010 eruption of Eyjafjallajökull (Iceland). Using the British press coverage of this event it is not difficult to find examples of all media filter elements, application of which resulted in bias against the forecast and forecaster. These actors then became named and blamed. Within this logic, it becomes only too easy for forecasters and scientists to be framed in a negative way through blame culture. The result is that forecast is framed in such a way so as to cause the forecaster to be blamed for all losses associated with the loss-causing event. Within the social amplification of risk framework (SARF), this can amplify a negative impression of the risk, the event and the response. However, actions can be taken to avoid such an outcome. These actions

  18. Thermodynamic Forecasts of the Mediterranean Sea Acidification

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. GOYET

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Anthropogenic CO2 is a major driver of the present ocean acidification. This latter is threatening the marine ecosystems and has been identified as a major environmental and economic menace. This study aims to forecast from the thermodynamic equations, the acidification variation (ΔpH of the Mediterranean waters over the next few decades and beyond this century. In order to do so, we calculated and fitted the theoretical values based upon the initial conditions from data of the 2013 MedSeA cruise. These estimates have been performed both for the Western and for the Eastern basins based upon their respective physical (temperature and salinity and chemical (total alkalinity and total inorganic carbon properties. The results allow us to point out four tipping points, including one when the Mediterranean Sea waters would become acid (pH<7. In order to provide an associated time scale to the theoretical results, we used two of the IPCC (2007 atmospheric CO2 scenarios. Under the most optimistic scenario of the “Special Report: Emissions Scenarios” (SRES of the IPCC (2007, the results indicate that in 2100, pH may decrease down to 0.245 in the Western basin and down to 0.242 in the Eastern basin (compared to the pre-industrial pH. Whereas for the most pessimistic SRES scenario of the IPCC (2007, the results for the year 2100, forecast a pH decrease down to 0.462 and 0.457, for the Western and for the Eastern basins, respectively. Acidification, which increased unprecedentedly in recent years, will rise almost similarly in both Mediterranean basins only well after the end of this century. These results further confirm that both basins may become undersaturated (< 1 with respect to calcite and aragonite (at the base of the mixed layer depth, only in the far future (in a few centuries.

  19. Meteorologically Driven Dengue and Chikungunya Forecasts

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The goal of this project is to incorporate weather forecasts and reported DF and ChikV case data into a disease transmission model to forecast disease case numbers...

  20. Global Forecast System (GFS) [1 Deg.

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Global Forecast System (GFS) is a weather forecast model produced by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). Dozens of atmospheric and...