WorldWideScience

Sample records for brazil droughts modeling

  1. Drought preparedness in Brazil

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    Ana Paula A. Gutiérrez

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Large portions of Brazil′s Northeast have experienced an intense and prolonged drought for the majority of 2010–2013. This drought, along with other droughts that have hit the South in recent years, has sparked a new round of discussions to improve drought policy and management at the federal and state levels. To assist with these efforts, the World Bank recently conducted a series of evaluations on national and sub-national drought preparedness measures and approaches across five country case studies. This particular article presents the Brazilian case study. The work draws from interviews with key experts and stakeholders, as well as document analyses, and focuses on preparedness measures and approaches at the national and one sub-national case; the state of Ceará. The analysis shows that although there is a rich history of drought management throughout Brazil, there are short-term and long-term gaps and opportunities on which decision makers might consider focusing to improve monitoring, forecasting, and early warning systems, vulnerability/resilience and impact assessments, and mitigation and response planning measures.

  2. Cloud Computing-based Platform for Drought Decision-Making using Remote Sensing and Modeling Products: Preliminary Results for Brazil

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    Vivoni, E.; Mascaro, G.; Shupe, J. W.; Hiatt, C.; Potter, C. S.; Miller, R. L.; Stanley, J.; Abraham, T.; Castilla-Rubio, J.

    2012-12-01

    Droughts and their hydrological consequences are a major threat to food security throughout the world. In arid and semiarid regions dependent on irrigated agriculture, prolonged droughts lead to significant and recurring economic and social losses. In this contribution, we present preliminary results on integrating a set of multi-resolution drought indices into a cloud computing-based visualization platform. We focused our initial efforts on Brazil due to a severe, on-going drought in a large agricultural area in the northeastern part of the country. The online platform includes drought products developed from: (1) a MODIS-based water stress index (WSI) based on inferences from normalized difference vegetation index and land surface temperature fields, (2) a volumetric water content (VWC) index obtained from application of the NASA CASA model, and (3) a set of AVHRR-based vegetation health indices obtained from NOAA/NESDIS. The drought indices are also presented in terms of anomalies with respect to a baseline period. Since our main objective is to engage stakeholders and decision-makers in Brazil, we incorporated other relevant geospatial data into the platform, including irrigation areas, dams and reservoirs, administrative units and annual climate information. We will also present a set of use cases developed to help stakeholders explore, query and provide feedback that allowed fine-tuning of the drought product delivery, presentation and analysis tools. Finally, we discuss potential next steps in development of the online platform, including applications at finer resolutions in specific basins and at a coarser global scale.

  3. Probabilistic drought classification using gamma mixture models

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    Mallya, Ganeshchandra; Tripathi, Shivam; Govindaraju, Rao S.

    2015-07-01

    Drought severity is commonly reported using drought classes obtained by assigning pre-defined thresholds on drought indices. Current drought classification methods ignore modeling uncertainties and provide discrete drought classification. However, the users of drought classification are often interested in knowing inherent uncertainties in classification so that they can make informed decisions. Recent studies have used hidden Markov models (HMM) for quantifying uncertainties in drought classification. The HMM method conceptualizes drought classes as distinct hydrological states that are not observed (hidden) but affect observed hydrological variables. The number of drought classes or hidden states in the model is pre-specified, which can sometimes result in model over-specification problem. This study proposes an alternate method for probabilistic drought classification where the number of states in the model is determined by the data. The proposed method adapts Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) methodology of drought classification by employing gamma mixture model (Gamma-MM) in a Bayesian framework. The method alleviates the problem of choosing a suitable distribution for fitting data in SPI analysis, quantifies modeling uncertainties, and propagates them for probabilistic drought classification. The method is tested on rainfall data over India. Comparison of the results with standard SPI show important differences particularly when SPI assumptions on data distribution are violated. Further, the new method is simpler and more parsimonious than HMM based drought classification method and can be a viable alternative for probabilistic drought classification.

  4. Managing the Health Impacts of Drought in Brazil

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    Aderita Sena

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Drought is often a hidden risk with the potential to become a silent public health disaster. It is difficult to define precisely when it starts or when it is over, and although it is a climatological event, its impacts depend on other human activities, and are intensified by social vulnerability. In Brazil, half of all natural disaster events are drought related, and they cause half of the impacts in number of affected persons. One large affected area is the semiarid region of Brazil’s Northeast, which has historically been affected by drought. Many health and well-being indicators in this region are worse than the rest of the country, based on an analysis of 5565 municipalities using available census data for 1991, 2000 and 2010, which allowed separating the 1133 municipalities affected by drought in order to compare them with the rest of the country. Although great progress has been made in reducing social and economic vulnerability, climate change and the expected changes in the semiarid region in the next few decades call for a review of current programs, particularly in public health, and the planning of new interventions with local communities. This study reviews the literature, analyzes available data and identifies possible actions and actors. The aim is to ensure there will be sufficient and sustainable local adaptive capacity and resilience, for a population already living within the limits of environmental vulnerability.

  5. Water: Drought, Crisis and Governance in Australia and Brazil

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    Wilson Sousa Júnior

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Despite huge differences in population, household income and development levels, Australia and Brazil have some temporal convergences in their water governance systems. Over the last 20 years, both countries have significantly reformed their water policies and practices by introducing a legal foundation for more integrated and participatory catchment/basin management based on the best information available. A critical test of any water reform is how effective it is in meeting the challenges of extreme and unpredictable conditions of drought and floods, which are expected to increase under climate changes scenarios. This paper compared the contemporary water governance frameworks of Australia and Brazil in relation to three elements of Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM: integration, participation, and information/knowledge. We focused on insights from Brazil’s recent drought and Australia’s fluctuating water crises to derive lessons and recommendations for future changes. Among the main recommendations, we stress the need for both systems to improve effective participation and to embrace a more comprehensive approach to cope with water scarcity in future scenarios. Furthermore, water related decisions should be based on a transparent and well informed process, and take into account the lessons from similar situations worldwide in order to avoid unnecessary or ineffective measures. As demonstrated in the Australian case during the Millennium Drought, the most effective initiatives were those involving government, the private sector and society to achieve a more sustainable consumption pattern in all sectors. There is much to learn from the Brazilian and Australia experiences in water reforms and crises, but it is imperative to understand the social, economic and environmental context within which these took place. Continuing to develop the capacity and willingness of researchers and policy makers to work together can make an

  6. Drought Duration Biases in Current Global Climate Models

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    Moon, Heewon; Gudmundsson, Lukas; Seneviratne, Sonia

    2016-04-01

    Several droughts in the recent past are characterized by their increased duration and intensity. In particular, substantially prolonged droughts have brought major societal and economic losses in certain regions, yet climate change projections of such droughts in terms of duration is subject to large uncertainties. This study analyzes the biases of drought duration in state-of-the-art global climate model (GCM) simulations from the 5th phase of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Drought durations are defined as negative precipitation anomalies and evaluated with three observation-based datasets in the period of 1901-2010. Large spread in biases of GCMs is commonly found in all regions, with particular strong biases in North East Brazil, Africa, Northern Australia, Central America, Central and Northern Europe, Sahel and Asia. Also in most regions, the interquartile range of bias lies below 0, meaning that the GCMs tend to underestimate drought durations. Meanwhile in some regions such as Western South America, the Amazon, Sahel, West and South Africa, and Asia, considerable inconsistency among the three observation-based datasets were found. These results indicate substantial uncertainties and errors in current GCMs for simulating drought durations as well as a large spread in observation-based datasets, both of which are found to be particularly strong in those regions that are often considered to be hot spots of projected future drying. The underlying sources of these uncertainties need to be identified in further study and will be applied to constrain GCM-based drought projections under climate change.

  7. Reservoir storage and hydrologic responses to droughts in the Paraná River basin, south-eastern Brazil

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    D. D. C. D. Melo

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Droughts are particularly critical for Brazil because of impacts on water supply and because most (70 % of its electricity is derived from hydroelectric generation. The Paraná basin (PB, a major hydroelectric producing region with 32 % (60 million people of Brazil's population, recently experienced the most severe drought since the 1960s, compromising the water supply for 11 million people in São Paulo. The objective of this study is to quantify linkages between meteorological and hydrological droughts based on remote sensing, modelling, and monitoring data using the Paraná River basin in south-eastern Brazil as a case study. Two major meteorological droughts were identified in the early 2000s and 2014, with precipitation 20–50 % below the long-term mean. Total water storage change estimated from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE satellites declined by 150 km3 between April 2011 and April 2015. Simulated soil moisture storage declined during the droughts, resulting in decreased runoff into reservoirs. As a result, reservoir storage decreased by 30 % relative to the system's maximum capacity, with negative trends ranging from 17 (May 1997–April 2001 to 25 km3 yr−1 (May 2011–April 2015. Storage in upstream reservoirs is mostly controlled by natural climate forcing, whereas storage in downstream reservoirs also reflects dam operations. This study emphasizes the importance of integrating remote sensing, modelling, and monitoring data to evaluate droughts and to establish a preliminary understanding of the linkages between a meteorological and hydrological drought for future management.

  8. Paradigms and Public Policies on Drought in Northeast Brazil: A Historical Perspective

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    Campos, José Nilson B.

    2015-05-01

    This paper describes the evolution of drought-related public policies in Northeast Brazil (NEB). Using a historical approach, we show that the evolution of public policy has not been characterized by abrupt shifts, but has instead been shaped through debates between renowned intellectuals. The resulting public policies formed a hydrological infrastructure that delivers clean water needed for robust economic activity. However, outcomes of the 2012-2013 drought show that populations that depend on rain fed agriculture are as vulnerable to drought as they were at the start of the 20th century. Although government, social, and emergency programs have aided drought victims, drought analysts agree that rain fed agriculture has remained vulnerable since drought policies were first formulated. Drought policies formulate integrated water resources management (IWRM) strategies that are geared toward supplying safe drinking water, and debates surrounding the IWRM paradigm have been affected by outcomes of major international events such as the World Water Forum.

  9. Probabilistic assessment of agricultural droughts using graphical models

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    Ramadas, Meenu; Govindaraju, Rao S.

    2015-07-01

    Agricultural droughts are often characterized by soil moisture in the root zone of the soil, but crop needs are rarely factored into the analysis. Since water needs vary with crops, agricultural drought incidences in a region can be characterized better if crop responses to soil water deficits are also accounted for in the drought index. This study investigates agricultural droughts driven by plant stress due to soil moisture deficits using crop stress functions available in the literature. Crop water stress is assumed to begin at the soil moisture level corresponding to incipient stomatal closure, and reaches its maximum at the crop's wilting point. Using available location-specific crop acreage data, a weighted crop water stress function is computed. A new probabilistic agricultural drought index is then developed within a hidden Markov model (HMM) framework that provides model uncertainty in drought classification and accounts for time dependence between drought states. The proposed index allows probabilistic classification of the drought states and takes due cognizance of the stress experienced by the crop due to soil moisture deficit. The capabilities of HMM model formulations for assessing agricultural droughts are compared to those of current drought indices such as standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) and self-calibrating Palmer drought severity index (SC-PDSI). The HMM model identified critical drought events and several drought occurrences that are not detected by either SPEI or SC-PDSI, and shows promise as a tool for agricultural drought studies.

  10. Teleconnection mechanisms of northeast Brazil droughts: modeling and empirical evidence Mecanismos de teleconexões do nordeste do Brasil: modelagem numérica e evidência epirica

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    Fred Kucharski

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available Targeted numerical modelling experimaents are conducted to complement the previous empirical diagnostics of circulation mechanisms leading from sea surface temperature (SST departures in the equatorial Pacific in January to anomalies in the March-April rainy season of Brazil's Nordeste. A weak interhemispheric northward directed SST gradient in the Atlantic favors a more southerly position of the hydrostatically controlled low pressure trough, embedded in which is the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ, which is the main rainbearing system for the Nordeste. In addition, anomalously warm waters in the equatorial Pacific in January tend to be followed by Nordeste drought. The underlying chain of causalities has been explored by empirical diagnostics and numerical modelling. During El Nino years, an upper-tropospheric wave train extends from the equatorial eastern Pacific to the tropical North Atlantic, affecting the patterns of upper-tropospheric topography and divergence, and hence of vertical motion over the Atlantic. This leads to a weaker meridional pressure gradient on the equatorward flank of the North Atlantic subtropical high, weaker North Atlantic tradewinds, an anomalously far northerly ITCZ position and thus Nordeste drought. The previous empirical diagnostics are overall supported by the modelling experiments.Experimentos específicos de modelagem numérica foram conduzidos para complementar diagnósticos empíricos realizados anteriormente dos mecanismos da circulação que relacionam anomalias na temperatura das águas superficiais do Pacífico equatorial em janeiro com as chuvas subsequentes em março-abril no Nordeste. Um gradiente térmico fraco (no sentido norte no Atlântico favorece a uma posição mais meridional do cavado de baixa pressão, controlado hidrostaticamente, dentro do qual se encontra a Zona de Convergência Inter-Tropical (ITCZ, que é a principal fonte de chuvas para o norte do Nordeste. Além disso,

  11. (Un)Natural Disasters: The Electoral Cycle Outweighs the Hydrologic Cycle in Drought Declaration in Northeast Brazil

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    Cooperman, A. D.

    2016-12-01

    Droughts are forecasted to become more frequent and severe in many developing countries. However, we know very little about how droughts and water management practices shape political relationships, and how political incentives affect declarations of drought emergency, preparedness, and water usage patterns.This paper analyzes the role of political discretion and electoral cycles in the municipal declaration of a drought emergency and distribution of drought relief in Northeast Brazil from 1999-2012. Controlling for climate conditions, I find that drought declarations are most likely during mayor election years and for mayors from the PT political party, during drought and high rainfall. Incumbents are more likely to be re-elected when they declare a drought during the election year. Interviews suggest that politicians buy votes and reward/recruit supporters through better water access and drought relief.Political rewards from providing drought relief create perverse incentives to under-invest in drought preparedness and sustainable water management practices. My findings suggest that the declaration process is vulnerable to political manipulation. I measure drought conditions with municipal standardized precipitation indices, potential evapotranspiration, agricultural production, and cattle. Future inclusion of more scientifically robust drought indicators, and transparency in the declaration process and water resource management, may help to depoliticize drought relief. Political distortions in water management and drought relief also affect water use. Where water infrastructure is lacking or not maintained, the government pays expensive water trucks to transport water across large areas. Local elites and politicians own the trucks and profit during drought. Wealthy landowners also pump large amounts from private wells to sell to thirsty local citizens, causing shallower wells in poor communities to run dry and reducing drought resilience. When electoral budget

  12. Modeling conditional covariance between meteorological and hydrological drought

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    Modarres, R.

    2012-12-01

    This study introduces a bivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) approach to model the time varying second order moment or conditional variance-covariance link of hydrologic and meteorological drought. The standardized streamflow and rainfall time series are selected as drought indices and the bivariate diagonal BEKK model is applied to estimate the conditional variance-covariance structure between hydrologic and meteorological drought. Results of diagonal BEKK(1,1) model indicated that the conditional variance of meteorological drought is weak and much smaller than that for hydrological drought which shows a strong volatility effect. However both drought indices show a weak memory in the conditional variance. It is also observed that the conditional covariance between two drought indices is also weak and only shows a slight short run volatility effect. This may suggest the effect of basin features such as groundwater storage and physical characteristics which attenuate and modify the effect of meteorological drought on hydrologic drought in the basin scale. conditional correlation time series between meteorological and hydrologic drought at two selected stations monthly variation of conditional correlation between meteorological and hydrologic drought at two selected stations

  13. Modeling drought impact occurrence based on meteorological drought indices in Europe

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    Stagge, James H.; Kohn, Irene; Tallaksen, Lena M.; Stahl, Kerstin

    2015-11-01

    There is a vital need for research that links meteorological drought indices with drought impacts felt on the ground. Previously, this link has been estimated based on experience or defined based on very narrow impact measures. This study expands on earlier work by showing the feasibility of relating user-provided impact reports with meteorological drought indices, the Standardized Precipitation Index and the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index, through logistic regression, while controlling for seasonal and interannual effects. Analysis includes four impact types, spanning agriculture, energy and industry, public water supply, and freshwater ecosystem across five European countries. Statistically significant climate indices are retained as predictors using step-wise regression and used to compare the most relevant drought indices and accumulation periods across different impact types and regions. Agricultural impacts are explained by 2-12 month anomalies, though anomalies greater than 3 months are likely related to agricultural management practices. Energy and industrial impacts, typically related to hydropower and energy cooling water, respond slower (6-12 months). Public water supply and freshwater ecosystem impacts are explained by a more complex combination of short (1-3 month) and seasonal (6-12 month) anomalies. The resulting drought impact models have both good model fit (pseudo-R2 = 0.225-0.716) and predictive ability, highlighting the feasibility of using such models to predict drought impact likelihood based on meteorological drought indices.

  14. Flood model for Brazil

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    Palán, Ladislav; Punčochář, Petr

    2017-04-01

    Looking on the impact of flooding from the World-wide perspective, in last 50 years flooding has caused over 460,000 fatalities and caused serious material damage. Combining economic loss from ten costliest flood events (from the same period) returns a loss (in the present value) exceeding 300bn USD. Locally, in Brazil, flood is the most damaging natural peril with alarming increase of events frequencies as 5 out of the 10 biggest flood losses ever recorded have occurred after 2009. The amount of economic and insured losses particularly caused by various flood types was the key driver of the local probabilistic flood model development. Considering the area of Brazil (being 5th biggest country in the World) and the scattered distribution of insured exposure, a domain covered by the model was limited to the entire state of Sao Paolo and 53 additional regions. The model quantifies losses on approx. 90 % of exposure (for regular property lines) of key insurers. Based on detailed exposure analysis, Impact Forecasting has developed this tool using long term local hydrological data series (Agencia Nacional de Aguas) from riverine gauge stations and digital elevation model (Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística). To provide most accurate representation of local hydrological behaviour needed for the nature of probabilistic simulation, a hydrological data processing focused on frequency analyses of seasonal peak flows - done by fitting appropriate extreme value statistical distribution and stochastic event set generation consisting of synthetically derived flood events respecting realistic spatial and frequency patterns visible in entire period of hydrological observation. Data were tested for homogeneity, consistency and for any significant breakpoint occurrence in time series so the entire observation or only its subparts were used for further analysis. The realistic spatial patterns of stochastic events are reproduced through the innovative use of d-vine copula

  15. Modeling Drought Impact Occurrence Based on Climatological Drought Indices for Europe

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    Stagge, J. H.; Kohn, I.; Tallaksen, L. M.; Stahl, K.

    2014-12-01

    ) and seasonal (6-12 month) anomalies. A mean of 47.0% (22.4-71.6%) impact deviance is explained by the resulting models, highlighting the feasibility of using such statistical techniques and drought impact databases to model drought impact likelihood based on relatively easily calculated meteorological drought indices.

  16. Drought

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Quevauviller, P.; Lanen, Van Henny A.J.

    2014-01-01

    Drought is one of the most extreme weather-related natural hazards. It differs from other hydrometeorological extremes in several ways. It develops gradually and usually over large areas (transnational), mostly resulting from a prolonged period (from months to years) of below-normal

  17. Unravelling the Drivers of the Recent Drought over Sao Paulo (Brazil) using HadCM3

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    Pattnayak, K. C.; Tindall, J. C.; Brienen, R.; Baker, J.; Spracklen, D. V.; Gloor, E. U.

    2015-12-01

    Since ca. 2010, Sao Paulo has struggled with a multi-year drought. Reservoir levels of Sao Paulo, south-America's largest city, are at a record low level, and as a result the city has implemented water-controlling measures. Usually, the rainy season runs from October through March, bringing important rain for this city. However, over the last 5 years, Sao Paulo has experienced multiple years of below average rainfall. In this study, we try to explain the climatic drivers and mechanisms behind the observed drought over Sao Paulo using a combination of observations and model simulations. We analyse observed precipitation, air temperature and sea surface temperature (SST) datasets over the recent past to characterise the climate anomalies and visualize the extent of the drought. We then use the Hadley Centre Climate model (HadCM3) with prescribed observed SST anomalies to probe the possible causes behind the drought. This analysis will show us possible climatic drivers behind the drought in the most densely populated region of South America.

  18. A quantitative analysis to objectively appraise drought indicators and model drought impacts

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    Bachmair, S.; Svensson, C.; Hannaford, J.; Barker, L. J.; Stahl, K.

    2016-07-01

    coverage. The predictions also provided insights into the EDII, in particular highlighting drought events where missing impact reports may reflect a lack of recording rather than true absence of impacts. Overall, the presented quantitative framework proved to be a useful tool for evaluating drought indicators, and to model impact occurrence. In summary, this study demonstrates the information gain for drought monitoring and early warning through impact data collection and analysis. It highlights the important role that quantitative analysis with impact data can have in providing "ground truth" for drought indicators, alongside more traditional stakeholder-led approaches.

  19. Characterizing Drought Events from a Hydrological Model Ensemble

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    Smith, Katie; Parry, Simon; Prudhomme, Christel; Hannaford, Jamie; Tanguy, Maliko; Barker, Lucy; Svensson, Cecilia

    2017-04-01

    Hydrological droughts are a slow onset natural hazard that can affect large areas. Within the United Kingdom there have been eight major drought events over the last 50 years, with several events acting at the continental scale, and covering the entire nation. Many of these events have lasted several years and had significant impacts on agriculture, the environment and the economy. Generally in the UK, due to a northwest-southeast gradient in rainfall and relief, as well as varying underlying geology, droughts tend to be most severe in the southeast, which can threaten water supplies to the capital in London. With the impacts of climate change likely to increase the severity and duration of drought events worldwide, it is crucial that we gain an understanding of the characteristics of some of the longer and more extreme droughts of the 19th and 20th centuries, so we may utilize this information in planning for the future. Hydrological models are essential both for reconstructing such events that predate streamflow records, and for use in drought forecasting. However, whilst the uncertainties involved in modelling hydrological extremes on the flooding end of the flow regime have been studied in depth over the past few decades, the uncertainties in simulating droughts and low flow events have not yet received such rigorous academic attention. The "Cascade of Uncertainty" approach has been applied to explore uncertainty and coherence across simulations of notable drought events from the past 50 years using the airGR family of daily lumped catchment models. Parameter uncertainty has been addressed using a Latin Hypercube sampled experiment of 500,000 parameter sets per model (GR4J, GR5J and GR6J), over more than 200 catchments across the UK. The best performing model parameterisations, determined using a multi-objective function approach, have then been taken forward for use in the assessment of the impact of model parameters and model structure on drought event

  20. Modelling Transpiration and Growth of Salinity and Drought Stressed Tomatoes

    OpenAIRE

    Karlberg, Louise

    2002-01-01

    Irrigation with saline waters is an agricultural practicethat is becoming increasingly common as competition for freshwater increases. In this thesis the mechanisms behind salinityand drought stress has been studied using data from fieldexperiments in combination with a modelling tool, theCoupModel. Measurements from field experiments on salinity,boron toxicity and drought stressed tomatoes grown during twoclimatically different seasons in the Arava desert, Israel,showed a linear relationship...

  1. Modelling crop yield in Iberia under drought conditions

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    Ribeiro, Andreia; Páscoa, Patrícia; Russo, Ana; Gouveia, Célia

    2017-04-01

    The improved assessment of the cereal yield and crop loss under drought conditions are essential to meet the increasing economy demands. The growing frequency and severity of the extreme drought conditions in the Iberian Peninsula (IP) has been likely responsible for negative impacts on agriculture, namely on crop yield losses. Therefore, a continuous monitoring of vegetation activity and a reliable estimation of drought impacts is crucial to contribute for the agricultural drought management and development of suitable information tools. This works aims to assess the influence of drought conditions in agricultural yields over the IP, considering cereal yields from mainly rainfed agriculture for the provinces with higher productivity. The main target is to develop a strategy to model drought risk on agriculture for wheat yield at a province level. In order to achieve this goal a combined assessment was made using a drought indicator (Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index, SPEI) to evaluate drought conditions together with a widely used vegetation index (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, NDVI) to monitor vegetation activity. A correlation analysis between detrended wheat yield and SPEI was performed in order to assess the vegetation response to each time scale of drought occurrence and also identify the moment of the vegetative cycle when the crop yields are more vulnerable to drought conditions. The time scales and months of SPEI, together with the months of NDVI, better related with wheat yield were chosen to perform a multivariate regression analysis to simulate crop yield. Model results are satisfactory and highlighted the usefulness of such analysis in the framework of developing a drought risk model for crop yields. In terms of an operational point of view, the results aim to contribute to an improved understanding of crop yield management under dry conditions, particularly adding substantial information on the advantages of combining

  2. Evaluation of meteorological drought indices for streamflow modeling

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    Haslinger, Klaus; Koffler, Daniel; Blöschl, Günter; Parajka, Juraj; Schöner, Wolfgang; Laaha, Gregor

    2013-04-01

    In this paper we present a comprehensive analysis which aims to link various meteorological drought indices to streamflow data in Austria and Central Europe. The motivation arises from the fact that discharge time series are usually shorter (beginning in the middle of the 20th century) than meteorological time series. In the European Greater Alpine Region we are fortunate of having a gridded dataset for temperature and solid/liquid precipitation on a monthly time scale that spans from 1801 to 2003 - the HISTALP database. If there is a link between meteorological drought indices and streamflow, a reconstruction of streamflow, with emphasis on low flows, will be possible for the last 200 years. As meteorological drought indices the self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index (scPDSI), the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) on various time scales as well as the moisture departure value d from the soil moisture modeling procedure of the scPDSI are used. The analysis focuses on three aspects, (i) temporal co-evolution of meteorological drought and streamflow indices, (ii) their at-site correlation at gauges, and (iii) their regional correlation structure depending on different climate and catchment conditions. The whole analysis is stratified by seasons, what allows us to explore the strength of the link for the dominant low flow generating process. In order to show a connection between these indices and streamflow data the drought event of 2003 serves as a reference. We will show the temporal evolution of the drought indices parallel to streamflow indices like MQ, Q95 and MAM(7) for the period from summer 2002, which encompasses a major flood event in the northern parts of Austria, to fall 2003 when the streamflow drought was most severe. This is carried out for different regions in Austria, representing different climatic and soil-specific characteristics. To quantify the link between drought indices and streamflow indices for the whole time series from 1801

  3. Evaluation of drought using SPEI drought class transitions and log-linear models for different agro-ecological regions of India

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    Alam, N. M.; Sharma, G. C.; Moreira, Elsa; Jana, C.; Mishra, P. K.; Sharma, N. K.; Mandal, D.

    2017-08-01

    Markov chain and 3-dimensional log-linear models were attempted to model drought class transitions derived from the newly developed drought index the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) at a 12 month time scale for six major drought prone areas of India. Log-linear modelling approach has been used to investigate differences relative to drought class transitions using SPEI-12 time series derived form 48 yeas monthly rainfall and temperature data. In this study, the probabilities of drought class transition, the mean residence time, the 1, 2 or 3 months ahead prediction of average transition time between drought classes and the drought severity class have been derived. Seasonality of precipitation has been derived for non-homogeneous Markov chains which could be used to explain the effect of the potential retreat of drought. Quasi-association and Quasi-symmetry log-linear models have been fitted to the drought class transitions derived from SPEI-12 time series. The estimates of odds along with their confidence intervals were obtained to explain the progression of drought and estimation of drought class transition probabilities. For initial months as the drought severity increases the calculated odds shows lower value and the odds decreases for the succeeding months. This indicates that the ratio of expected frequencies of occurrence of transition from drought class to the non-drought class decreases as compared to transition to any drought class when the drought severity of the present class increases. From 3-dimensional log-linear model it is clear that during the last 24 years the drought probability has increased for almost all the six regions. The findings from the present study will immensely help to assess the impact of drought on the gross primary production and to develop future contingent planning in similar regions worldwide.

  4. Modeling drought impact occurrence based on climatological drought indices for four European countries

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    Stagge, James H.; Kohn, Irene; Tallaksen, Lena M.; Stahl, Kerstin

    2014-05-01

    The relationship between atmospheric conditions and the likelihood of a significant drought impact has, in the past, been difficult to quantify, particularly in Europe where political boundaries and language have made acquiring comprehensive drought impact information difficult. As such, the majority of studies linking meteorological drought with the occurrence or severity of drought impacts have previously focused on specific regions, very detailed impact types, or both. This study describes a new methodology to link the likelihood of drought impact occurrence with climatological drought indices across different European climatic regions and impact sectors using the newly developed European Drought Impact report Inventory (EDII), a collaborative database of drought impact information (www.geo.uio.no/edc/droughtdb/). The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) are used as predictor variables to quantify meteorological drought severity over prior time periods (here 1, 2, 3, 6, 9, 12, and 24 months are used). The indices are derived using the gridded WATCH Forcing Datasets, covering the period 1958-2012. Analysis was performed using logistic regression to identify the climatological drought index and accumulation period, or linear combination of drought indices, that best predicts the likelihood of a documented drought impact, defined by monthly presence/absence. The analysis was carried out for a subset of four European countries (Germany, UK, Norway, Slovenia) and four of the best documented impact sectors: Public Water Supply, Agriculture and Livestock Farming, Energy and Industry, and Environmental Quality. Preliminary results show that drought impacts in these countries occur most frequently due to a combination of short-term (2-6 month) precipitation deficits and long-term (12-24 month) potential evapotranspiration anomaly, likely associated with increased temperatures. Agricultural drought impacts

  5. Evaluation of drought propagation in an ensemble mean of large-scale hydrological models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. F. Van Loon

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Hydrological drought is increasingly studied using large-scale models. It is, however, not sure whether large-scale models reproduce the development of hydrological drought correctly. The pressing question is how well do large-scale models simulate the propagation from meteorological to hydrological drought? To answer this question, we evaluated the simulation of drought propagation in an ensemble mean of ten large-scale models, both land-surface models and global hydrological models, that participated in the model intercomparison project of WATCH (WaterMIP. For a selection of case study areas, we studied drought characteristics (number of droughts, duration, severity, drought propagation features (pooling, attenuation, lag, lengthening, and hydrological drought typology (classical rainfall deficit drought, rain-to-snow-season drought, wet-to-dry-season drought, cold snow season drought, warm snow season drought, composite drought.

    Drought characteristics simulated by large-scale models clearly reflected drought propagation; i.e. drought events became fewer and longer when moving through the hydrological cycle. However, more differentiation was expected between fast and slowly responding systems, with slowly responding systems having fewer and longer droughts in runoff than fast responding systems. This was not found using large-scale models. Drought propagation features were poorly reproduced by the large-scale models, because runoff reacted immediately to precipitation, in all case study areas. This fast reaction to precipitation, even in cold climates in winter and in semi-arid climates in summer, also greatly influenced the hydrological drought typology as identified by the large-scale models. In general, the large-scale models had the correct representation of drought types, but the percentages of occurrence had some important mismatches, e.g. an overestimation of classical rainfall deficit droughts, and an

  6. Short-term droughts forecast using Markov chain model in Victoria, Australia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahmat, Siti Nazahiyah; Jayasuriya, Niranjali; Bhuiyan, Muhammed A.

    2017-07-01

    A comprehensive risk management strategy for dealing with drought should include both short-term and long-term planning. The objective of this paper is to present an early warning method to forecast drought using the Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI) and a non-homogeneous Markov chain model. A model such as this is useful for short-term planning. The developed method has been used to forecast droughts at a number of meteorological monitoring stations that have been regionalised into six (6) homogenous clusters with similar drought characteristics based on SPI. The non-homogeneous Markov chain model was used to estimate drought probabilities and drought predictions up to 3 months ahead. The drought severity classes defined using the SPI were computed at a 12-month time scale. The drought probabilities and the predictions were computed for six clusters that depict similar drought characteristics in Victoria, Australia. Overall, the drought severity class predicted was quite similar for all the clusters, with the non-drought class probabilities ranging from 49 to 57 %. For all clusters, the near normal class had a probability of occurrence varying from 27 to 38 %. For the more moderate and severe classes, the probabilities ranged from 2 to 13 % and 3 to 1 %, respectively. The developed model predicted drought situations 1 month ahead reasonably well. However, 2 and 3 months ahead predictions should be used with caution until the models are developed further.

  7. Multivariate Statistical Modelling of Drought and Heat Wave Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manning, Colin; Widmann, Martin; Vrac, Mathieu; Maraun, Douglas; Bevaqua, Emanuele

    2016-04-01

    Multivariate Statistical Modelling of Drought and Heat Wave Events C. Manning1,2, M. Widmann1, M. Vrac2, D. Maraun3, E. Bevaqua2,3 1. School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Edgbaston, Birmingham, UK 2. Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, (LSCE-IPSL), Centre d'Etudes de Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette, France 3. Wegener Center for Climate and Global Change, University of Graz, Brandhofgasse 5, 8010 Graz, Austria Compound extreme events are a combination of two or more contributing events which in themselves may not be extreme but through their joint occurrence produce an extreme impact. Compound events are noted in the latest IPCC report as an important type of extreme event that have been given little attention so far. As part of the CE:LLO project (Compound Events: muLtivariate statisticaL mOdelling) we are developing a multivariate statistical model to gain an understanding of the dependence structure of certain compound events. One focus of this project is on the interaction between drought and heat wave events. Soil moisture has both a local and non-local effect on the occurrence of heat waves where it strongly controls the latent heat flux affecting the transfer of sensible heat to the atmosphere. These processes can create a feedback whereby a heat wave maybe amplified or suppressed by the soil moisture preconditioning, and vice versa, the heat wave may in turn have an effect on soil conditions. An aim of this project is to capture this dependence in order to correctly describe the joint probabilities of these conditions and the resulting probability of their compound impact. We will show an application of Pair Copula Constructions (PCCs) to study the aforementioned compound event. PCCs allow in theory for the formulation of multivariate dependence structures in any dimension where the PCC is a decomposition of a multivariate distribution into a product of bivariate components modelled using copulas. A

  8. Regional drought assessment using a distributed hydrological model coupled with Standardized Runoff Index

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Shen

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Drought assessment is essential for coping with frequent droughts nowadays. Owing to the large spatio-temporal variations in hydrometeorology in most regions in China, it is very necessary to use a physically-based hydrological model to produce rational spatial and temporal distributions of hydro-meteorological variables for drought assessment. In this study, the large-scale distributed hydrological model Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC was coupled with a modified standardized runoff index (SRI for drought assessment in the Weihe River basin, northwest China. The result indicates that the coupled model is capable of reasonably reproducing the spatial distribution of drought occurrence. It reflected the spatial heterogeneity of regional drought and improved the physical mechanism of SRI. This model also has potential for drought forecasting, early warning and mitigation, given that accurate meteorological forcing data are available.

  9. Application of a Standardized Precipitation Index for Meteorological Drought Analysis of the Semi-Arid Climate Influence in Minas Gerais, Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bruno Henrique Toná Juliani

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available In recent years, the Southeast region in Brazil has suffered from the effects of drought events. Analyzing the history of drought events is fundamental to establish potential risks of the occurrence of droughts in the future. One of the many ways to prevent substantial impacts and evaluate a drought risk assessment is through analysis of severity, duration and frequency characteristics of these events. In this context, the current study developed Severity-Duration-Frequency curves and derived an isohyetal map for the area influenced by the semi-arid climate in the state of Minas Gerais, through the analysis of 17 rainfall stations. The drought events identification and the analysis of its conditions were assessed using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI for a 12-month time scale. The SDF curves were developed using the minimum cumulative 12-month precipitation values fitted to the Gamma distribution for 1, 3, 6, 9 and 12-month drought durations. The computed SDF curves for each station were further regionalized in order to obtain a general result for the study area. It can be observed that for a return period of 100 years, the estimated cumulative 12-month precipitation varies from 353 mm in a 1-month drought duration to 458 mm in a 12-month drought duration. The derived isohyetal map provides a more accurate local application of the results.

  10. Optimization of Evaporative Demand Models for Seasonal Drought Forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    McEvoy, D.; Huntington, J. L.; Hobbins, M.

    2015-12-01

    Providing reliable seasonal drought forecasts continues to pose a major challenge for scientists, end-users, and the water resources and agricultural communities. Precipitation (Prcp) forecasts beyond weather time scales are largely unreliable, so exploring new avenues to improve seasonal drought prediction is necessary to move towards applications and decision-making based on seasonal forecasts. A recent study has shown that evaporative demand (E0) anomaly forecasts from the Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2) are consistently more skillful than Prcp anomaly forecasts during drought events over CONUS, and E0 drought forecasts may be particularly useful during the growing season in the farming belts of the central and Midwestern CONUS. For this recent study, we used CFSv2 reforecasts to assess the skill of E0 and of its individual drivers (temperature, humidity, wind speed, and solar radiation), using the American Society for Civil Engineers Standardized Reference Evapotranspiration (ET0) Equation. Moderate skill was found in ET0, temperature, and humidity, with lesser skill in solar radiation, and no skill in wind. Therefore, forecasts of E0 based on models with no wind or solar radiation inputs may prove to be more skillful than the ASCE ET0. For this presentation we evaluate CFSv2 E0 reforecasts (1982-2009) from three different E0 models: (1) ASCE ET0; (2) Hargreaves and Samani (ET-HS), which is estimated from maximum and minimum temperature alone; and (3) Valiantzas (ET-V), which is a modified version of the Penman method for use when wind speed data are not available (or of poor quality) and is driven only by temperature, humidity, and solar radiation. The University of Idaho's gridded meteorological data (METDATA) were used as observations to evaluate CFSv2 and also to determine if ET0, ET-HS, and ET-V identify similar historical drought periods. We focus specifically on CFSv2 lead times of one, two, and three months, and season one forecasts; which are

  11. Modeling physiological responses of soil microbes to drought (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manzoni, S.; Katul, G. G.; Porporato, A. M.; Schaeffer, S. M.; Schimel, J.

    2013-12-01

    Biogeochemical models predict soil carbon (C) under varying environmental conditions, aiming to disentangle the effects of predicted changes in temperature and moisture regimes on C storage. While much work focuses on temperature sensitivity of decomposition, relatively less is known about decomposer responses to changes in soil moisture. Heterotrophic respiration is known to decline as soils become drier, but the underlying physiological mechanisms are not clear and rarely accounted for in models. In particular, we ask: what are the effects of different drought response strategies on C storage potential and the shape of the respiration-moisture relation? We have developed a process-based model to address these questions, including the main physiological responses thought to play a role under varying moisture conditions: i) dormancy, ii) patterns of extra-cellular enzyme production, and iii) osmoregulation. We show that these different drought response strategies play a major role in the long-term partitioning of soil C among stable and labile pools. In very dry conditions, microbes shifting to dormant state tend to favor long-term (steady state) accumulation of stable C at the expenses of microbial biomass, while increasing investment in enzymes leads to accumulation of dissolved organic C, which in turn may partly overcome the diffusion limitations imposed by dry soils. In contrast, entering a dormant state early during a dry down allows microbes to save C by respiring less (due to lowered active biomass), avoid C starvation when substrate diffusion breaks down, and use available C for growth and maintenance rather than osmoregulation. Hence, this strategy explains why little osmolytes are found in microbial biomass subjected to experimental drought. We conclude by highlighting how our results can be implemented in Earth System Models without excessively increasing their complexity.

  12. A conceptual prediction model for seasonal drought processes using atmospheric and oceanic standardized anomalies: application to regional drought processes in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Zhenchen; Lu, Guihua; He, Hai; Wu, Zhiyong; He, Jian

    2018-01-01

    Reliable drought prediction is fundamental for water resource managers to develop and implement drought mitigation measures. Considering that drought development is closely related to the spatial-temporal evolution of large-scale circulation patterns, we developed a conceptual prediction model of seasonal drought processes based on atmospheric and oceanic standardized anomalies (SAs). Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis is first applied to drought-related SAs at 200 and 500 hPa geopotential height (HGT) and sea surface temperature (SST). Subsequently, SA-based predictors are built based on the spatial pattern of the first EOF modes. This drought prediction model is essentially the synchronous statistical relationship between 90-day-accumulated atmospheric-oceanic SA-based predictors and SPI3 (3-month standardized precipitation index), calibrated using a simple stepwise regression method. Predictor computation is based on forecast atmospheric-oceanic products retrieved from the NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2), indicating the lead time of the model depends on that of CFSv2. The model can make seamless drought predictions for operational use after a year-to-year calibration. Model application to four recent severe regional drought processes in China indicates its good performance in predicting seasonal drought development, despite its weakness in predicting drought severity. Overall, the model can be a worthy reference for seasonal water resource management in China.

  13. Investigating Differences between Modeled Historical and Station Calculated Drought

    Science.gov (United States)

    With growing concern over increased frequency and intensity of extreme climate events, there is an imperative need to investigate drought under different future scenarios for the contiguous U.S. To assess future drought relative to a historical baseline, drought occurrence (numbe...

  14. Approaches to modeling landscape-scale drought-induced forest mortality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gustafson, Eric J.; Shinneman, Douglas

    2015-01-01

    Drought stress is an important cause of tree mortality in forests, and drought-induced disturbance events are projected to become more common in the future due to climate change. Landscape Disturbance and Succession Models (LDSM) are becoming widely used to project climate change impacts on forests, including potential interactions with natural and anthropogenic disturbances, and to explore the efficacy of alternative management actions to mitigate negative consequences of global changes on forests and ecosystem services. Recent studies incorporating drought-mortality effects into LDSMs have projected significant potential changes in forest composition and carbon storage, largely due to differential impacts of drought on tree species and interactions with other disturbance agents. In this chapter, we review how drought affects forest ecosystems and the different ways drought effects have been modeled (both spatially and aspatially) in the past. Building on those efforts, we describe several approaches to modeling drought effects in LDSMs, discuss advantages and shortcomings of each, and include two case studies for illustration. The first approach features the use of empirically derived relationships between measures of drought and the loss of tree biomass to drought-induced mortality. The second uses deterministic rules of species mortality for given drought events to project changes in species composition and forest distribution. A third approach is more mechanistic, simulating growth reductions and death caused by water stress. Because modeling of drought effects in LDSMs is still in its infancy, and because drought is expected to play an increasingly important role in forest health, further development of modeling drought-forest dynamics is urgently needed.

  15. Modeling summer month hydrological drought probabilities in the United States using antecedent flow conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Austin, Samuel H.; Nelms, David L.

    2017-01-01

    Climate change raises concern that risks of hydrological drought may be increasing. We estimate hydrological drought probabilities for rivers and streams in the United States (U.S.) using maximum likelihood logistic regression (MLLR). Streamflow data from winter months are used to estimate the chance of hydrological drought during summer months. Daily streamflow data collected from 9,144 stream gages from January 1, 1884 through January 9, 2014 provide hydrological drought streamflow probabilities for July, August, and September as functions of streamflows during October, November, December, January, and February, estimating outcomes 5-11 months ahead of their occurrence. Few drought prediction methods exploit temporal links among streamflows. We find MLLR modeling of drought streamflow probabilities exploits the explanatory power of temporally linked water flows. MLLR models with strong correct classification rates were produced for streams throughout the U.S. One ad hoc test of correct prediction rates of September 2013 hydrological droughts exceeded 90% correct classification. Some of the best-performing models coincide with areas of high concern including the West, the Midwest, Texas, the Southeast, and the Mid-Atlantic. Using hydrological drought MLLR probability estimates in a water management context can inform understanding of drought streamflow conditions, provide warning of future drought conditions, and aid water management decision making.

  16. Towards Remotely Sensed Composite Global Drought Risk Modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dercas, Nicholas; Dalezios, Nicolas

    2015-04-01

    Drought is a multi-faceted issue and requires a multi-faceted assessment. Droughts may have the origin on precipitation deficits, which sequentially and by considering different time and space scales may impact soil moisture, plant wilting, stream flow, wildfire, ground water levels, famine and social impacts. There is a need to monitor drought even at a global scale. Key variables for monitoring drought include climate data, soil moisture, stream flow, ground water, reservoir and lake levels, snow pack, short-medium-long range forecasts, vegetation health and fire danger. However, there is no single definition of drought and there are different drought indicators and indices even for each drought type. There are already four operational global drought risk monitoring systems, namely the U.S. Drought Monitor, the European Drought Observatory (EDO), the African and the Australian systems, respectively. These systems require further research to improve the level of accuracy, the time and space scales, to consider all types of drought and to achieve operational efficiency, eventually. This paper attempts to contribute to the above mentioned objectives. Based on a similar general methodology, the multi-indicator approach is considered. This has resulted from previous research in the Mediterranean region, an agriculturally vulnerable region, using several drought indices separately, namely RDI and VHI. The proposed scheme attempts to consider different space scaling based on agroclimatic zoning through remotely sensed techniques and several indices. Needless to say, the agroclimatic potential of agricultural areas has to be assessed in order to achieve sustainable and efficient use of natural resources in combination with production maximization. Similarly, the time scale is also considered by addressing drought-related impacts affected by precipitation deficits on time scales ranging from a few days to a few months, such as non-irrigated agriculture, topsoil moisture

  17. Evaluation of drought propagation in an ensemble mean of large-scale hydrological models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Loon, van A.F.; Huijgevoort, van M.H.J.; Lanen, van H.A.J.

    2012-01-01

    Hydrological drought is increasingly studied using large-scale models. It is, however, not sure whether large-scale models reproduce the development of hydrological drought correctly. The pressing question is how well do large-scale models simulate the propagation from meteorological to hydrological

  18. Drought-associated changes in climate and their relevance for ecosystem experiments and models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. J. De Boeck

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Drought periods can have important impacts on plant productivity and ecosystem functioning, but climatic conditions other than the lack of precipitation during droughts have never been quantified and have therefore not been considered explicitly in both experimental and modeling studies. Here, we identify which climatic characteristics deviate from normal during droughts and how these deviations could affect plant responses. Analysis of 609 years of daily data from nine Western European meteorological stations reveals that droughts in the studied region are consistently associated with more sunshine (+45 %, increased mean (+1.6 °C and maximum (+2.8 °C air temperatures and vapour pressure deficits that were 51 % higher than under normal conditions. These deviations from normal increase significantly as droughts progress. Using the process-model ORCHIDEE, we simulated droughts consistent with the results of the dataset analysis and compared water and carbon exchange of three different vegetation types during such natural droughts and droughts in which only the precipitation was affected. The comparison revealed contrasting responses: carbon loss was higher under natural drought in grasslands, while increased carbon uptake was found especially in decidious forests. This difference was attributed to better access to water reserves in forest ecosystems which prevented drought stress. This demonstrates that the warmer and sunnier conditions naturally associated with droughts can either improve growth or aggravate drought-related stress, depending on water reserves. As the impacts of including or excluding climatic parameters that correlate with drought are substantial, we propose that both experimental and modeling efforts should take into account other environmental factors than merely precipitation.

  19. Effects of Severe Floods and Droughts on Wildlife of the Pantanal Wetland (Brazil)—A Review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alho, Cleber J. R.; Silva, João S. V.

    2012-01-01

    Simple Summary The Pantanal is a wetland in the center of South America, (140,000 km² in Brazil), in the Upper Paraguay River Basin. Because of its diverse and abundant wildlife, it is recognized as one of the most important freshwater ecosystems in the world. Many endangered species occur there, including jaguar; waterfowl are exceptionally abundant. Relief varies between the low, and flat floodplain, and the surrounding non-flooded plateau areas. Rainfall shows inter-annual variability, influencing the flooding patterns. Historical climate instability of severe multi-annual flood and dry events has affected animals’ habitats as well as their community structure, population size and behavioral ecology. Abstract Flooding throughout the Pantanal is seasonal. The complex vegetative cover and high seasonal productivity support a diverse and abundant fauna. A gradient in flood level supports a range of major habitats in a complex mosaic with annual seasonality. The rivers and streams are lined with gallery forests, and other arboreal habitats exist in the more elevated areas. The remainder is either grasslands or seasonally flooded grasslands. The regional flora and fauna are adapted to annual water fluctuation. However, an inter-annual series of higher or lower rainfalls has caused either severe floods or drastic dry seasons. Large scale climate phenomena such as greenhouse gases, El Niño and La Niña influence the seasonality of floods and droughts in the Pantanal. Knowledge of severe floods and droughts, which characterize natural disasters, is fundamental for wildlife management and nature conservation of the Pantanal. Plants and wild animals, for example, are affected by tree mortality in riparian forest after extreme flooding, with consequent habitat modification for wild animals. In addition, human activities are also affected since cattle ranching and ecotourism are economically important in the region, and when seasons with unusual floods or droughts occur

  20. Midsummer Drought Pattern simulated by a coupled regional climate model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martinez-Lopez, Benjamin; Cabos Narvaez, William David; Sein, Dmitry; Quintanar, Arturo

    2017-04-01

    In this work, a regional climate model of limited area, in both atmospheric and coupled mode, is used to simulate the historical period over a domain including Mexico and Central America. In the atmospheric mode, the REMO atmosphere model is used, while in the coupled simulation, REMO is coupled to the MPI-OM ocean model. In all simulations, REMO is driven at the open boundaries by reanalysis data from ERA-40. Several numerical experiments are performed using three different spatial resolutions (100 km, 50 km, and 25 km). Taylor diagrams of some meteorological and oceanic variables are used to get a quantitative idea of model performance. Additionally, the observed patterns of the Midsummer Drought are compared with the simulated ones. Among the results, it is noted that the coupled model with the highest resolution has the best performance to simulate the observed pattern of the Midsummer Drought. Over the eastern Pacific warm pool region, the coupled simulation generate fields of sea surface temperature, wind, and sea level pressure gradients more consistent with independent observations that those simulated in the atmospheric mode. In particular, the wind strengthened observed in July is well reproduced in the coupled simulation, which lead to higher values of vertically integrated water vapour transport coming from both the eastern tropical Pacific and the Caribbean. Despite the increased atmospheric humidity available above this region, the simulated fluxes are divergent and therefore the precipitation is reduced in July, in agreement with the observations. This July divergence in the vertically integrated water vapour transport is not present in the atmospheric mode.

  1. Drought Impacts on Reservoir Storage and Hydro-electricity Production in Southeastern Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scanlon, B. R.; Melo, D. D.; Yin, L.; Wendland, E.

    2015-12-01

    Brazilian hydroelectric plants (HP) generate ~85% of the total electricity in the country (138 GW). More than half of the number largest reservoirs are located in the Southeast/Midwest region, where ~50% of the population (~100 million) lives. The 2014 drought raised several questions about the resilience of the water sources when several urban centers, including Brazilian's largest metropolis (São Paulo, 20 million people), had their water supply threatened. Such drought also affected reservoirs of hydroelectric plants. This study assesses how the storage and, thus the electricity generation, in 14 of the largest reservoirs were affected by drought events within the past 20 years. We computed the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) to identify rainfall anomalies throughout the analyzed period. To evaluate the impacts on surface water, we assessed the changes in total (surface+ subsurface) runoff and soil moisture from Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) and in Total Water Storage (TWS) from Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite data. We evaluated the anomalies and significance of the changes in reservoir storage (RS) and electricity generation. The results show that severe dry years (-1.5 < SPI <-2.0) reduce reservoir storage (RS) by up to ~60% of its total capacity. Both electricity generation and reservoir storage showed strong negative trends between 2011 and 2014. Our results also indicate that within the past 20 years, two major depletions in reservoir storage occurred: 2001 and 2014. However, due to lower soil moisture in 2013 compared to that in 2000, distinct impacts were observed on the reservoirs with much stronger impacts on reservoir storage in 2014 relative to those in 2001. No meaningful changes in runoff were shown by GLDAS during the 2014 drought. The observed depletion in the RS in 2014 was similar to that in the TWS, as shown by GRACE data. In 2014, the electricity production by the HP declined by ~20%. As a

  2. Risk, Innovation and Development in a Changing Climate: The Role of Drought Preparedness Policies and Disaster Risk Management in Ceara, Brazil.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos Germano Ferreira Costa

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Droughts are among the most common type of disasters, generating enormous socioeconomic impacts in the world, especially when considering the silent character they have. These phenomena are becoming more frequent, intense and longer lasting, which gives us an idea of ​​what may happen with the accentuation of climate change. This article seeks to provide and overview of the measures and policies addressing drought prevention and preparedness, facing the impacts of climate change, in the State of Ceará, Brazil. This study addresses issues of public policies concerning drought risk management in order to allow a greater understanding of policies and programs, experiences and perspectives by the analysis of the process of elaboration of the Integrated Disaster Risk Management Plan of the State of Ceara, Brazil (PIGRD-CE, as well as of the development of the Early Warning System - Drought Monitor -, while addressing the political coordination, which led to the creation of the Drought Commission (Comitê das Secas. As a result, we understand this strategy, concerning drought preparedness, as a tool able to increase the adaptability and resilience of the political process. In this regard, we present the experiences accumulated by the State of Ceara in drought management processes showing a promising potential for replicability in other Latin American countries also subjected to threats that the changing climate may impose, in combination with the analysis of related risks - political/institutional/cultural -, in the development of public policies to draw together the main conclusions, lessons learned and recommendations.

  3. Effects of Severe Floods and Droughts on Wildlife of the Pantanal Wetland (Brazil)-A Review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alho, Cleber J R; Silva, João S V

    2012-10-18

    Flooding throughout the Pantanal is seasonal. The complex vegetative cover and high seasonal productivity support a diverse and abundant fauna. A gradient in flood level supports a range of major habitats in a complex mosaic with annual seasonality. The rivers and streams are lined with gallery forests, and other arboreal habitats exist in the more elevated areas. The remainder is either grasslands or seasonally flooded grasslands. The regional flora and fauna are adapted to annual water fluctuation. However, an inter-annual series of higher or lower rainfalls has caused either severe floods or drastic dry seasons. Large scale climate phenomena such as greenhouse gases, El Niño and La Niña influence the seasonality of floods and droughts in the Pantanal. Knowledge of severe floods and droughts, which characterize natural disasters, is fundamental for wildlife management and nature conservation of the Pantanal. Plants and wild animals, for example, are affected by tree mortality in riparian forest after extreme flooding, with consequent habitat modification for wild animals. In addition, human activities are also affected since cattle ranching and ecotourism are economically important in the region, and when seasons with unusual floods or droughts occur, areas with human settlements are impacted.

  4. Identifying the role of typhoons as drought busters in South Korea based on hidden Markov chain models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoo, Jiyoung; Kwon, Hyun-Han; So, Byung-Jin; Rajagopalan, Balaji; Kim, Tae-Woong

    2015-04-01

    This study proposed a hidden Markov chain model-based drought analysis (HMM-DA) tool to understand the beginning and ending of meteorological drought and to further characterize typhoon-induced drought busters (TDB) by exploring spatiotemporal drought patterns in South Korea. It was found that typhoons have played a dominant role in ending drought events (EDE) during the typhoon season (July-September) over the last four decades (1974-2013). The percentage of EDEs terminated by TDBs was about 43-90% mainly along coastal regions in South Korea. Furthermore, the TDBs, mainly during summer, have a positive role in managing extreme droughts during the subsequent autumn and spring seasons. The HMM-DA models the temporal dependencies between drought states using Markov chain, consequently capturing the dependencies between droughts and typhoons well, thus, enabling a better performance in modeling spatiotemporal drought attributes compared to traditional methods.

  5. Seasonal drought ensemble predictions based on multiple climate models in the upper Han River Basin, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Feng; Ye, Aizhong; Duan, Qingyun

    2017-03-01

    An experimental seasonal drought forecasting system is developed based on 29-year (1982-2010) seasonal meteorological hindcasts generated by the climate models from the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) project. This system made use of a bias correction and spatial downscaling method, and a distributed time-variant gain model (DTVGM) hydrologic model. DTVGM was calibrated using observed daily hydrological data and its streamflow simulations achieved Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency values of 0.727 and 0.724 during calibration (1978-1995) and validation (1996-2005) periods, respectively, at the Danjiangkou reservoir station. The experimental seasonal drought forecasting system (known as NMME-DTVGM) is used to generate seasonal drought forecasts. The forecasts were evaluated against the reference forecasts (i.e., persistence forecast and climatological forecast). The NMME-DTVGM drought forecasts have higher detectability and accuracy and lower false alarm rate than the reference forecasts at different lead times (from 1 to 4 months) during the cold-dry season. No apparent advantage is shown in drought predictions during spring and summer seasons because of a long memory of the initial conditions in spring and a lower predictive skill for precipitation in summer. Overall, the NMME-based seasonal drought forecasting system has meaningful skill in predicting drought several months in advance, which can provide critical information for drought preparedness and response planning as well as the sustainable practice of water resource conservation over the basin.

  6. Model based climate information on drought risk in Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calmanti, S.; Syroka, J.; Jones, C.; Carfagna, F.; Dell'Aquila, A.; Hoefsloot, P.; Kaffaf, S.; Nikulin, G.

    2012-04-01

    The United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) has embarked upon the endeavor of creating a sustainable Africa-wide natural disaster risk management system. A fundamental building block of this initiative is the setup of a drought impact modeling platform called Africa Risk-View that aims to quantify and monitor weather-related food security risk in Africa. The modeling approach is based the Water Requirement Satisfaction Index (WRSI), as the fundamental indicator of the performances of agriculture and uses historical records of food assistance operation to project future potential needs for livelihood protection. By using climate change scenarios as an input to Africa Risk-View it is possible, in principles, to evaluate the future impact of climate variability on critical issues such as food security and the overall performance of the envisaged risk management system. A necessary preliminary step to this challenging task is the exploration of the sources of uncertainties affecting the assessment based on modeled climate change scenarios. For this purpose, a limited set of climate models have been selected in order verify the relevance of using climate model output data with Africa Risk-View and to explore a minimal range of possible sources of uncertainty. This first evaluation exercise started before the setup of the CORDEX framework and has relied on model output available at the time. In particular only one regional downscaling was available for the entire African continent from the ENSEMBLES project. The analysis shows that current coarse resolution global climate models can not directly feed into the Africa RiskView risk-analysis tool. However, regional downscaling may help correcting the inherent biases observed in the datasets. Further analysis is performed by using the first data available under the CORDEX framework. In particular, we consider a set of simulation driven with boundary conditions from the reanalysis ERA-Interim to evaluate the skill drought

  7. Variable hydraulic resistances and their impact on plant drought response modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baert, Annelies; De Schepper, Veerle; Steppe, Kathy

    2015-04-01

    Plant drought responses are still not fully understood. Improved knowledge on drought responses is, however, crucial to better predict their impact on individual plant and ecosystem functioning. Mechanistic models in combination with plant measurements are promising for obtaining information on plant water status and can assist us in understanding the effect of limiting soil water availability and drought stress. While existing models are reliable under sufficient soil water availability, they generally fail under dry conditions as not all appropriate mechanisms seem yet to have been implemented. We therefore aimed at identifying mechanisms underlying plant drought responses, and in particular investigated the behaviour of hydraulic resistances encountered in the soil and xylem for grapevine (Vitis vinifera L.) and oak (Quercus robur L.). A variable hydraulic soil-to-stem resistance was necessary to describe plant drought responses. In addition, implementation of a variable soil-to-stem hydraulic resistance enabled us to generate an in situ soil-to-stem vulnerability curve, which might be an alternative to the conventionally used vulnerability curves. Furthermore, a daily recalibration of the model revealed a drought-induced increase in radial hydraulic resistance between xylem and elastic living tissues. Accurate information on plant hydraulic resistances and simulation of plant drought responses can foster important discussions regarding the functioning of plants and ecosystems during droughts. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  8. A spatially distributed hydroeconomic model to assess the effects of drought on land use, farm profits, and agricultural employment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maneta, M. P.; Torres, M. O.; Wallender, W. W.; Vosti, S.; Howitt, R.; Rodrigues, L.; Bassoi, L. H.; Panday, S.

    2009-11-01

    In this paper a high-resolution linked hydroeconomic model is demonstrated for drought conditions in a Brazilian river basin. The economic model of agriculture includes 13 decision variables that can be optimized to maximize farmers' yearly net revenues. The economic model uses a multi-input multioutput nonlinear constant elasticity of substitution (CES) production function simulating agricultural production. The hydrologic component is a detailed physics-based three-dimensional hydrodynamic model that simulates changes in the hydrologic system derived from agricultural activity while in turn providing biophysical constraints to the economic system. The linked models capture the effects of the interactions between the hydrologic and the economic systems at high spatial and temporal resolutions, ensuring that the model converges to an optimal economic scenario that takes into account the spatial and temporal distribution of the water resources. The operation and usefulness of the models are demonstrated in a rural catchment area of about 10 km2 within the São Francisco River Basin in Brazil. Two droughts of increasing intensity are simulated to investigate how farmers behave under rain shortfalls of different severity. The results show that farmers react to rainfall shortages to minimize their effects on farm profits, and that the impact on farmers depends, among other things, on their location in the watershed and on their access to groundwater.

  9. Dynamic drought risk assessment using crop model and remote sensing techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, H.; Su, Z.; Lv, J.; Li, L.; Wang, Y.

    2017-02-01

    Drought risk assessment is of great significance to reduce the loss of agricultural drought and ensure food security. The normally drought risk assessment method is to evaluate its exposure to the hazard and the vulnerability to extended periods of water shortage for a specific region, which is a static evaluation method. The Dynamic Drought Risk Assessment (DDRA) is to estimate the drought risk according to the crop growth and water stress conditions in real time. In this study, a DDRA method using crop model and remote sensing techniques was proposed. The crop model we employed is DeNitrification and DeComposition (DNDC) model. The drought risk was quantified by the yield losses predicted by the crop model in a scenario-based method. The crop model was re-calibrated to improve the performance by the Leaf Area Index (LAI) retrieved from MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data. And the in-situ station-based crop model was extended to assess the regional drought risk by integrating crop planted mapping. The crop planted area was extracted with extended CPPI method from MODIS data. This study was implemented and validated on maize crop in Liaoning province, China.

  10. Identification of drought in Dhalai river watershed using MCDM and ANN models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aher, Sainath; Shinde, Sambhaji; Guha, Shantamoy; Majumder, Mrinmoy

    2017-03-01

    An innovative approach for drought identification is developed using Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) models from surveyed drought parameter data around the Dhalai river watershed in Tripura hinterlands, India. Total eight drought parameters, i.e., precipitation, soil moisture, evapotranspiration, vegetation canopy, cropping pattern, temperature, cultivated land, and groundwater level were obtained from expert, literature and cultivator survey. Then, the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Analytic Network Process (ANP) were used for weighting of parameters and Drought Index Identification (DII). Field data of weighted parameters in the meso scale Dhalai River watershed were collected and used to train the ANN model. The developed ANN model was used in the same watershed for identification of drought. Results indicate that the Limited-Memory Quasi-Newton algorithm was better than the commonly used training method. Results obtained from the ANN model shows the drought index developed from the study area ranges from 0.32 to 0.72. Overall analysis revealed that, with appropriate training, the ANN model can be used in the areas where the model is calibrated, or other areas where the range of input parameters is similar to the calibrated region for drought identification.

  11. Model calibration for changing climates: lessons from Australian droughts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fowler, K.; Peel, M. C.; Western, A. W.; Zhang, L.

    2016-12-01

    Hydrologic models have potential to be useful tools in planning for future climate variability. They are often used when translating projected climatic shifts (eg. in rainfall or PET) into potential shortfalls in water availability. However, recent literature suggests that conceptual rainfall-runoff models have variable performance simulating runoff under changing climatic conditions. Models calibrated to wetter conditions tend to perform poorly when climatic conditions become drier. In particular, models often provide biased simulations after a change in climate. This suggests that either the models themselves are deficient, and/or common calibration methods need to be improved. Therefore, this research tested alternative calibration methods. The overall goal was to find parameter sets that are robust to changes in climate and provide better performance when evaluated over multi-year droughts. Two broad approaches were trialled: hydrologic signature matching (using the DREAM-ABC algorithm), and single-objective optimisation (using the CMA-ES algorithm). For hydrologic signature matching, 36 hydrologic signatures were defined and over 200 combinations of these signatures were trialled. For single objective optimisation, 15 different objective functions were trialled. For both methods, testing was carried out in 86 catchments in South East Australia using 5 different rainfall runoff models. The results indicate two broad strategies for improving calibration methods for changing climates. First, common 'least squares' methods are too sensitive to day-to-day variations and not sufficiently sensitive to long-term changes. Thus, signatures or objective functions that incorporate longer timescales (eg. annual) may do better. Second, the least squares method tended to be outperformed by methods that take the absolute error, such as the Index of Agreement. Together, these two strategies have potential to better prepare models for future climatic changes.

  12. Improving crop simulation models to cope with crop responses to drought

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lizaso, Jon I.; Boote, Keneth J.; Jones, James W.; Tesfaye, Kassahum; Di Matteo, Javier; Koo, Jawoo; Cenacchi, Nicola; Andrade, Fernando

    2015-04-01

    One of the most common risks to crop production is drought. Many National and International efforts are devoted to early forecast and management of drought. However, crop simulation models used to assess the impact of soil water deficit on crop growth, development, and yield many times are not sufficiently accurate. We modified CERES-Maize, one of the maize simulation models in DSSAT v4.5, to incorporate the anthesis-silking interval (ASI). Under stressful conditions, especially under drought, the emergence of silks in maize is delayed respect to pollen shed, resulting in reduced pollinated female flowers and therefore, decreased grain yield. To simulate the ASI component, two new cultivar-specific parameters are required controlling the non-stress ASI response, and the genotype sensitivity to drought. The new model was tested against field data collected under stress and non-stress conditions in Argentina and Zimbabwe, yielding good results. We compared the results of rainfed maize simulations using the CERES-Maize model equipped with and without the ASI component showing major differences in some drought-prone areas. The new model will be a useful tool to better assess the impact of drought on maize production, and the potential gains from drought-tolerant cultivars.

  13. Sensitivity of Drought Processes to Runoff Parameterizations in East Asia with the Community Land Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, J. B.; Um, M. J.; Kim, Y.

    2016-12-01

    Drought is one of the most powerful and extensive disasters and has the highest annual average damage among all the disasters. Focusing on East Asia, where over one fifth of all the people in the world live, drought has impacted as well as been projected to impact the region significantly. .Therefore it is critical to reasonably simulate the drought phenomenon in the region and thus this study would focus on the reproducibility of drought with the NCAR CLM. In this study, we examine the propagation of drought processes with different runoff parameterization of CLM in East Asia. Two different schemes are used; TOPMODEL-based and VIC-based schemes, which differentiate the result of runoff through the surface and subsurface runoff parameterization. CLM with different runoff scheme are driven with two atmospheric forcings from CRU/NCEP and NCEP reanalysis data. Specifically, propagation of drought from meteorological, agricultural to hydrologic drought is investigated with different drought indices, estimated with not only model simulated results but also observational data. The indices include the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI), standardized runoff index (SRI) and standardized soil moisture index (SSMI). Based on these indices, the drought characteristics such as intensity, frequency and spatial extent are investigated. At last, such drought assessments would reveal the possible model deficiencies in East Asia. AcknowledgementsThis work was supported by Basic Science Research Program through the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) funded by the Ministry of Science, ICT & Future Planning (2015R1C1A2A01054800) and the Korea Meteorological Administration R&D Program under Grant KMIPA 2015-6180.

  14. Using an integrated hydrological model to estimate the usefulness of meteorological drought indices in a changing climate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. von Gunten

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Droughts are serious natural hazards, especially in semi-arid regions. They are also difficult to characterize. Various summary metrics representing the dryness level, denoted drought indices, have been developed to quantify droughts. They typically lump meteorological variables and can thus directly be computed from the outputs of regional climate models in climate-change assessments. While it is generally accepted that drought risks in semi-arid climates will increase in the future, quantifying this increase using climate model outputs is a complex process that depends on the choice and the accuracy of the drought indices, among other factors. In this study, we compare seven meteorological drought indices that are commonly used to predict future droughts. Our goal is to assess the reliability of these indices to predict hydrological impacts of droughts under changing climatic conditions at the annual timescale. We simulate the hydrological responses of a small catchment in northern Spain to droughts in present and future climate, using an integrated hydrological model calibrated for different irrigation scenarios. We compute the correlation of meteorological drought indices with the simulated hydrological time series (discharge, groundwater levels, and water deficit and compare changes in the relationships between hydrological variables and drought indices. While correlation coefficients linked with a specific drought index are similar for all tested land uses and climates, the relationship between drought indices and hydrological variables often differs between present and future climate. Drought indices based solely on precipitation often underestimate the hydrological impacts of future droughts, while drought indices that additionally include potential evapotranspiration sometimes overestimate the drought effects. In this study, the drought indices with the smallest bias were the rainfall anomaly index, the reconnaissance drought index, and

  15. Drought monitoring and assessment: Remote sensing and modeling approaches for the Famine Early Warning Systems Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Senay, Gabriel; Velpuri, Naga Manohar; Bohms, Stefanie; Budde, Michael; Young, Claudia; Rowland, James; Verdin, James

    2015-01-01

    Drought monitoring is an essential component of drought risk management. It is usually carried out using drought indices/indicators that are continuous functions of rainfall and other hydrometeorological variables. This chapter presents a few examples of how remote sensing and hydrologic modeling techniques are being used to generate a suite of drought monitoring indicators at dekadal (10-day), monthly, seasonal, and annual time scales for several selected regions around the world. Satellite-based rainfall estimates are being used to produce drought indicators such as standardized precipitation index, dryness indicators, and start of season analysis. The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index is being used to monitor vegetation condition. Several satellite data products are combined using agrohydrologic models to produce multiple short- and long-term indicators of droughts. All the data sets are being produced and updated in near-real time to provide information about the onset, progression, extent, and intensity of drought conditions. The data and products produced are available for download from the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) data portal at http://earlywarning.usgs.gov. The availability of timely information and products support the decision-making processes in drought-related hazard assessment, monitoring, and management with the FEWS NET. The drought-hazard monitoring approach perfected by the U.S. Geological Survey for FEWS NET through the integration of satellite data and hydrologic modeling can form the basis for similar decision support systems. Such systems can operationally produce reliable and useful regional information that is relevant for local, district-level decision making.

  16. Dynamic Stackelberg game model for water rationalization in drought emergency

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kicsiny, R.; Piscopo, V.; Scarelli, A.; Varga, Z.

    2014-09-01

    In water resource management, in case of a limited resource, there is a conflict situation between different consumers. In this paper, a dynamic game-theoretical model is suggested for the solution of such conflict. Let us suppose that in a region, water supply is based on a given aquifer, from which a quantity of effective reserve can be used without damaging the aquifer, and a long drought is foreseen. The use of water is divided between the social sector represented by the local authority, and the production sector, in our case, simplified to a single agricultural producer using water for irrigation; they are the players in the game. For a fixed time period, every day, a given amount is available, from which first the authority, then the producer takes a proportion, which corresponds to the strategy choices of the players. A price function is given, which depends on the total available reserve, the payoffs of both players are quantified as their net incomes for the whole period: for the producer: profit from selling the product minus price of water and tax paid, for the authority: tax received plus the gain for the authority from selling the water bought to the social sector minus price of water purchased. A solution (equilibrium) of the game consists of such strategy choices of both players, with which each player maximizes her/his total payoff (over the whole time horizon of the game) provided that the other player also maximizes her/his own payoff. In the paper, in a mathematical model for the above conflict situation, a deterministic continuum-strategy two-player discrete-time dynamic Stackelberg game with fixed finite time duration and closed-loop information structure is proposed, where the authority is “leader” and the producer is “follower”. The algorithms for the solution of the game are based on recent theoretical results of the authors. Illustrative numerical examples are also given.

  17. Impacts of climate change on drought: changes to drier conditions at the beginning of the crop growing season in southern Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vânia Rosa Pereira

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT The intensification of drought incidence is one of the most important threats of the 21st century with significant effects on food security. Accordingly, there is a need to improve the understanding of the regional impacts of climate change on this hazard. This study assessed long-term trends in probability-based drought indices (Standardized Precipitation Index and Standardized Evapotranspiration Index in the State of São Paulo, Brazil. Owing to the multi-scalar nature of both indices, the analyses were performed at 1 to 12-month time scales. The indices were calculated by means of a relativist approach that allowed us to compare drought conditions from different periods. The years 1961-1990 were used as the referential period. To the authors’ best knowledge, this is the first time that such relativist approach is used in historical trend analysis. The results suggest that the evapotranspiration rates have intensified the regional drought conditions. The time scale used to calculate the indices significantly affected the outcomes of drought trend assessments. The reason behind this feature is that the significant changes in the monthly regional patterns are limited to a specific period of the year. More specifically, virtually all significant changes have been observed during the first trimester of the rainy season (October, November and December. Considering that this period corresponds to critical plant growth stages (flowering/regrowth/sprouting of several major crops (e.g. Sugarcane and Citrus, we may conclude that these significant changes have increased the risk of crop yield reductions due to agricultural drought.

  18. Future projection of drought conditions in Europe: A comprehensive study using the ENSEMBLES regional climate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heinrich, Georg; Gobiet, Andreas

    2010-05-01

    Drought is a natural recurrent phenomenon which occurs in a variety of different temporal and spatial scales and significantly affects natural and socio-economic systems. Under the aspect of the human induced climate change it is of high interest to decision makers how drought conditions might change at regional scale in order to map out adequate mitigation and adaption strategies. For this study, the most recent regional climate scenarios for Europe with a horizontal resolution of approximately 25 km are used (provided by the EU FP6 Integrated Project ENSEMBLES - http://ensembles-eu.org/). Based on seasonal temperature and precipitation climate change signals, eight scenarios out of the entire ensemble are selected in order to span a large fraction of the uncertainty range. These eight scenarios are analysed in more detail. A quantile mapping approach based on the E-OBS observational dataset is applied to daily temperature and precipitation to reduce model errors before investigating drought conditions in nine European sub regions. Two commonly used drought indices are calculated as drought indicators - the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) which is solely based on precipitation and the self calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index (scPDSI) which is additionally based on temperature and available water capacity of the soil. The SPI is calculated for various time scales, accounting for different drought types, and the scPDSI is calculated on monthly basis. Both indices are calibrated in the past (1951 - 2000) and then applied to the future scenarios (2021 - 2050) according to the concept of relative drought indices. The temporal and spatial characteristics of projected future drought conditions are analysed with focus on moderately and extremely dry and wet conditions and the uncertainty in the projections. Finally, first results will be presented. Acknowledgement: "The ENSEMBLES data used in this work was funded by the EU FP6 Integrated Project ENSEMBLES

  19. A discrete stage-structured model of California newt population dynamics during a period of drought

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Marjorie T.; Milligan, William R.; Kats, Lee B.; Vandergon, Thomas L.; Honeycutt, Rodney L.; Fisher, Robert N.; Davis, Courtney L.; Lucas, Timothy A.

    2017-01-01

    We introduce a mathematical model for studying the population dynamics under drought of the California newt (Taricha torosa), a species of special concern in the state of California. Since 2012, California has experienced a record-setting drought, and multiple studies predict drought conditions currently underway will persist and even increase in severity. Recent declines and local extinctions of California newt populations in Santa Monica Mountain streams motivate our study of the impact of drought on newt population sizes. Although newts are terrestrial salamanders, they migrate to streams each spring to breed and lay eggs. Since egg and larval stages occur in water, a precipitation deficit due to drought conditions reduces the space for newt egg-laying and the necessary habitat for larval development. To mathematically forecast newt population dynamics, we develop a nonlinear system of discrete equations that includes demographic parameters such as survival rates for newt life stages and egg production, which depend on habitat availability and rainfall. We estimate these demographic parameters using 15 years of stream survey data collected from Cold Creek in Los Angeles County, California, and our model captures the observed decline of the parameterized Cold Creek newt population. Based upon data analysis, we predict how the number of available newt egg-laying sites varies with annual precipitation. Our model allows us to make predictions about how the length and severity of drought can affect the likelihood of persistence and the time to critical endangerment of a local newt population. We predict that sustained severe drought will critically endanger the newt population but that the newt population can rebound if a drought is sufficiently short.

  20. Modeling extreme drought impacts on terrestrial ecosystems when thresholds are exceeded

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holm, J. A.; Rammig, A.; Smith, B.; Medvigy, D.; Lichstein, J. W.; Dukes, J. S.; Allen, C. D.; Beier, C.; Larsen, K. S.; Ficken, C. D.; Pockman, W.; Anderegg, W.; Luo, Y.

    2016-12-01

    Recent IPCC Assessment Reports suggest that with predicted climate changes future precipitation- and heat-related extreme events are becoming stronger and more frequent with potential for prolonged droughts. To prepare for these changes and their impacts, we need to develop a better understanding of terrestrial ecosystem responses to extreme drought events. In particular, we focus here on large-extent and long-lasting extreme drought events with noticeable impacts on the functioning of forested ecosystems. While most of ecosystem manipulative experiments have been motivated by ongoing and predicted climate change, the majority only applied relatively moderate droughts, not addressing the "very" extreme tail of these scenarios, i.e. "extreme extremes (EEs)". We explore the response of forest ecosystems to EEs using two demographic-based dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) (i.e. ED2, LPJ-GUESS) in which the abundances of different plant functional types, as well as tree size- and age-class structure, are emergent properties of resource competition. We evaluate the model's capabilities to represent extreme drought scenarios (i.e., 50% and 90% reduction in precipitation for 1-year, 2-year, and 4-year drought scenarios) at two dry forested sites: Palo Verde, Costa Rica (i.e. tropical) and EucFACE, Australia (i.e. temperate). Through the DGVM modeling outcomes we determine the following five testable hypotheses for future experiments: 1) EEs cannot be extrapolated from mild extremes due to plant plasticity and functional composition. 2) Response to EEs depends on functional diversity, trait combinations, and phenology, such that both models predicted even after 100 years plant biomass did not recover. 3) Mortality from drought reduces the pressure on resources and prevents further damage by subsequent years of drought. 4) Early successional stands are more vulnerable to extreme droughts while older stand are more resilient. 5) Elevated atmospheric CO2 alleviates

  1. Assessing Agricultural Drought Vulnerability by a VSD Model: A Case Study in Yunnan Province, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiansheng Wu

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Drought vulnerability of agriculture is significant to economic development and sustainable food production. In this paper, we proposed a framework to evaluate the regional agricultural-eco environment in the face of drought caused by climate change. Based on a vulnerability scoping diagram (VSD model, we built up a comprehensive system to evaluate the agricultural drought vulnerability of Yunnan Province in China. The model highlights the human-land relationship by considering both natural conditions and human activities. Twelve indicators were generated to construct three components of the model: exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. During the construction of the VSD model, the entropy and the analytic hierarchy process (AHP comprehensive analysis method were adopted to generate the weights and to compute the composite index for each section. Furthermore, the factor analysis method was used to determine the dominant factors of different cities and the main indicators driving the system. The results indicated a spatial pattern that the vulnerability value was high on the eastern and western sides, but low in the middle of Yunnan Province. Most of the vulnerable regions were concentrated in remote areas. Indicators such as population density, irrigation level, annual average precipitation, cultivation land ratio, and difficulty of water supply were the main driving factors. This means that there is a deep connection between agricultural drought vulnerability and urbanization. The evaluation system developed during this research will provide guidance for drought mitigation in regions of complex terrain.

  2. Drought assessment using a TRMM-derived standardized precipitation index for the upper São Francisco River basin, Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santos, Celso Augusto Guimarães; Brasil Neto, Reginaldo Moura; Passos, Jacqueline Sobral de Araújo; da Silva, Richarde Marques

    2017-06-01

    In this work, the use of Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) rainfall data and the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) for monitoring spatial and temporal drought variabilities in the Upper São Francisco River basin is investigated. Thus, the spatiotemporal behavior of droughts and cluster regions with similar behaviors is identified. As a result, the joint analysis of clusters, dendrograms, and the spatial distribution of SPI values proved to be a powerful tool in identifying homogeneous regions. The results showed that the northeast region of the basin has the lowest rainfall indices and the southwest region has the highest rainfall depths, and that the region has well-defined dry and rainy seasons from June to August and November to January, respectively. An analysis of the drought and rain conditions showed that the studied region was homogeneous and well-distributed; however, the quantity of extreme and severe drought events in short-, medium- and long-term analysis was higher than that expected in regions with high rainfall depths, particularly in the south/southwest and southeast areas. Thus, an alternative classification is proposed to characterize the drought, which spatially categorizes the drought type (short-, medium-, and long-term) according to the analyzed drought event type (extreme, severe, moderate, and mild).

  3. Modeling Flood & Drought Scenario for Water Management in Porali River Basin, Balochistan

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    Shoaib Ahmed

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Recent history shows that floods have become a frequently occurring disaster in Balochistan, especially during monsoon season. Two rivers, river Porali and river Kud overflows, inundating its banks and causing destruction to cultivated land and property. This study is an attempt to identify flood prone areas of Porali river basin for future flood scenario and propose possible reservoir locations for excess flood water storage. Computer-based models Hydrological Simulation Program-FORTRAN (HSPF and HEC-river analysis system (HEC-RAS are used as tools to simulate existing and future flood and drought scenarios. Models are calibrated and validated using data from 3 weather stations, namely Wadh, Bela, and Uthal and stream flow data from two gauging stations. The highest and the lowest 10 years of precipitation data are extracted, from historic dataset of all stations, to attain future flooding and drought scenarios, respectively. Flood inundation map is generated highlighting agricultural prone land and settlements of the watershed. Using Digital Elevation Model (DEM and volume of water calculated from the flood scenario, possible locations for reservoirs are marked that can store excess water for the use in drought years. Flow and volume of water has also been simulated for drought scenario. Analyses show that 3 × 109 m3 of water available due to immense flooding that is sufficient for the survival for one drought year, as the volume of water for latter scenario is 2.9 × 108m3.

  4. Soil Moisture Drought Monitoring and Forecasting Using Satellite and Climate Model Data over Southwestern China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhang, Xuejun; Tang, Qiuhong; Liu, Xingcai; Leng, Guoyong; Li, Zhe

    2017-01-01

    Real-time monitoring and predicting drought development with several months in advance is of critical importance for drought risk adaptation and mitigation. In this paper, we present a drought monitoring and seasonal forecasting framework based on the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model over Southwest China (SW). The satellite precipitation data are used to force VIC model for near real-time estimate of land surface hydrologic conditions. As initialized with satellite-aided monitoring, the climate model-based forecast (CFSv2_VIC) and ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP)-based forecast (ESP_VIC) are both performed and evaluated through their ability in reproducing the evolution of the 2009/2010 severe drought over SW. The results show that the satellite-aided monitoring is able to provide reasonable estimate of forecast initial conditions (ICs) in a real-time manner. Both of CFSv2_VIC and ESP_VIC exhibit comparable performance against the observation-based estimates for the first month, whereas the predictive skill largely drops beyond 1-month. Compared to ESP_VIC, CFSv2_VIC shows better performance as indicated by the smaller ensemble range. This study highlights the value of this operational framework in generating near real-time ICs and giving a reliable prediction with 1-month ahead, which has great implications for drought risk assessment, preparation and relief.

  5. Determination of the Changes of Drought Occurrence in Turkey Using Regional Climate Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sibel Saygili, Fatma; Tufan Turp, M.; Kurnaz, M. Levent

    2017-04-01

    As a consequence of the negative impacts of climate change, Turkey, being a country in the Mediterranean Basin, is under a serious risk of increased drought conditions. In this study, it is aimed to determine and compare the spatial distributions of climatological drought probabilities for Turkey. For this purpose, by making use of Regional Climate Model (RegCM4.4) of the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP), the outputs of the MPI-ESM-MR global climate model of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology are downscaled to 50km for Turkey. To make the future projection over Turkey for the period of 2071-2100 with respect to the reference period of 1986-2005, the worst case emission pathway RCP8.5 is used. The Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) values are computed and classified in accordance with the seven classifications of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Finally, the spatial distribution maps showing the changes in drought probabilities over Turkey are obtained in order to see the impact of climate change on Turkey's drought patterns.

  6. Reconstructing and analyzing China's fifty-nine year (1951–2009 drought history using hydrological model simulation

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    Z. Y. Wu

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available The 1951–2009 drought history of China is reconstructed using daily soil moisture values generated by the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC land surface macroscale hydrology model. VIC is applied over a grid of 10 458 points with a spatial resolution of 30 km × 30 km, and is driven by observed daily maximum and minimum air temperature and precipitation from 624 long-term meteorological stations. The VIC soil moisture is used to calculate the Soil Moisture Anomaly Percentage Index (SMAPI, which can be used as a measure of the severity of agricultural drought on a global basis. We have developed a SMAPI-based drought identification procedure for practical uses in the identification of both grid point and regional drought events. As a result, a total of 325 regional drought events varying in time and strength are identified from China's nine drought study regions. These drought events can thus be assessed quantitatively at different spatial and temporal scales. The result shows that the severe drought events of 1978, 2000 and 2006 are well reconstructed, which indicates that the SMAPI is capable of identifying the onset of a drought event, its progression, as well as its termination. Spatial and temporal variations of droughts in China's nine drought study regions are studied. Our result shows that on average, up to 30% of the total area of China is prone to drought. Regionally, an upward trend in drought-affected areas has been detected in three regions (Inner Mongolia, Northeast and North from 1951–2009. However, the decadal variability of droughts has been weak in the rest of the five regions (South, Southwest, East, Northwest, and Tibet. Xinjiang has even been showing steadily wetter since the 1950s. Two regional dry centres are discovered in China as the result of a combined analysis on the occurrence of drought events from both grid points and drought study regions. The first centre is located in the area partially covered by the North

  7. Effects of Planting Density on Transpiration, Stem Flow and Interception for Two Clones Differing in Drought Tolerance in a High Productivity Eucalyptus Plantation in Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hubbard, R. M.; Hakemada, R.; Ferraz, S.

    2015-12-01

    Eucalypt plantations cover about 20 M hectares worldwide and expansion is expected to mainly occur in marginal growing areas where dry conditions may lead to water conflicts. One of the principal reasons for the expansion of Eucalyptus plantations is rapid wood growth but these forests also transpire large amounts of water. Genotype selection and planting density, are key factors regulating carbon and water tradeoffs at a stand scale, but few studies have examined these simultaneously especially in highly productive clonal plantations. Our goal in this study was to examine the effects of planting density on carbon and water interactions using a drought tolerant and drought sensitive eucalyptus clone. This work is part of a larger study (TECHS project - Tolerance of Eucalyptus Clones to Hydric and Thermal Stresses) and is located in a flat Oxisol in southeast of Brazil. A drought tolerant (E. grandis x E. camaldulensis (Grancam) and drought sensitive clone E. grandis x E. urophylla (Urograndis) were planted at four densities ranging from 600 to 3.000 stem ha-1. We measured transpiration using thermal heat dissipation probes, wood growth, canopy interception and stemflow during a full year (21 to 33 months old). Precipitation during the study period was 738 mm. Independently of genetics, growth increased with increasing density. Transpiration also increased with planting density and ranged from 515-595 mm at wider spacing to 735-978 mm at tighter spacing. Interception increased with planting density representing 18-22% of precipitation versus 13-14% in wider spacing while stem flow represented 2-5% in denser spacing and 1-2% at broader spacing. When density was higher than 1.250 and 1.750 stems ha-1 in Urograndis and Grancam clones, respectively, the water balance were negative. On a stand scale, results show both genetics and spacing can be used as silvicultural tools to better manage the tradeoff between wood growth and water consumption.

  8. Nitrogen dynamics in oak model ecosystems subjected to air warming and drought on two different soils.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuster, T M; Schleppi, P; Hu, B; Schulin, R; Günthardt-Goerg, M S

    2013-01-01

    Being tolerant to heat and drought, oaks are promising candidates for future forestry in view of climate change in Central Europe. Air warming is expected to increase, and drought decrease soil N availability and thus N supply to trees. Here, we conducted a model ecosystem experiment, in which mixed stands of young oaks (Quercus robur, Q. petraea and Q. pubescens) were grown on two different soils and subjected to four climate treatments during three growing seasons: air warming by 1-2 °C, drought periods (average precipitation reduction of 43-60%), a combination of these two treatments, and a control. In contrast to our hypotheses, neither air warming nor drought significantly affected N availability, whereas total amounts, vertical distribution and availability of soil N showed substantial differences between the two soils. While air warming had no effect on tree growth and N accumulation, the drought treatment reduced tree growth and increased, or tended to increase, N accumulation in the reduced biomass, indicating that growth was not limited by N. Furthermore, (15) N-labelling revealed that this accumulation was associated with an increased uptake of nitrate. On the basis of our results, climate change effects on N dynamics are expected to be less important in oak stands than reduced soil water availability. © 2012 German Botanical Society and The Royal Botanical Society of the Netherlands.

  9. River water quality modelling under drought situations – the Turia River case

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Paredes-Arquiola

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Drought and water shortage effects are normally exacerbated due to collateral impacts on water quality, since low streamflow affects water quality in rivers and water uses depend on it. One of the most common problems during drought conditions is maintaining a good water quality while securing the water supply to demands. This research analyses the case of the Turia River Water Resource System located in Eastern Spain. Its main water demand comes as urban demand from Valencia City, which intake is located in the final stretch of the river, where streamflow may become very low during droughts. As a result, during drought conditions concentrations of pathogens and other contaminants increase, compromising the water supply to Valencia City. In order to define possible solutions for the above-mentioned problem, we have developed an integrated model for simulating water management and water quality in the Turia River Basin to propose solutions for water quality problems under water scarcity. For this purpose, the Decision Support System Shell AQUATOOL has been used. The results demonstrate the importance of applying environmental flows as a measure of reducing pollutant's concentration depending on the evolution of a drought event and the state of the water resources system.

  10. River water quality modelling under drought situations - the Turia River case

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paredes-Arquiola, Javier; Macián, Javier; Pedro-Monzonís, María; Belda, Edgar; Momblanch, Andrea; Andreu, Joaquín

    2016-10-01

    Drought and water shortage effects are normally exacerbated due to collateral impacts on water quality, since low streamflow affects water quality in rivers and water uses depend on it. One of the most common problems during drought conditions is maintaining a good water quality while securing the water supply to demands. This research analyses the case of the Turia River Water Resource System located in Eastern Spain. Its main water demand comes as urban demand from Valencia City, which intake is located in the final stretch of the river, where streamflow may become very low during droughts. As a result, during drought conditions concentrations of pathogens and other contaminants increase, compromising the water supply to Valencia City. In order to define possible solutions for the above-mentioned problem, we have developed an integrated model for simulating water management and water quality in the Turia River Basin to propose solutions for water quality problems under water scarcity. For this purpose, the Decision Support System Shell AQUATOOL has been used. The results demonstrate the importance of applying environmental flows as a measure of reducing pollutant's concentration depending on the evolution of a drought event and the state of the water resources system.

  11. Seasonal drought ensemble predictions based on multiple climate models in the upper Han River Basin, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Feng; Ye, Aizhong; Duan, Qingyun

    2017-04-01

    To predict droughts several months in advance and reduce the damage, the development of an experimental seasonal drought forecasting system is presented in this paper based on 29-yr (1982-2010) seasonal meteorological hindcasts from the North American Multi-model Ensemble (NMME) climate models via a bias correction and spatial downscaling method, and a distributed time-variant gain model (DTVGM) hydrologic model. The DTVGM model has been well calibrated with Nash efficiency coefficient values of 0.727 and 0.724 during calibration (1978-1995) and validation (1996-2005) periods at the Danjiangkou station. NMME-DTVGM has higher skill than reference forecast during the first lead and even up to 2-4 leads for the cold-dry season. Little improvements occur in spring and summer because of long memory of initial conditions in spring and lower predictive skill for precipitation in summer. The system also captured the pattern of the drought well for a hindcast case study of August-October 1997 drought.

  12. Future streamflow droughts in glacierized catchments: the impact of dynamic glacier modelling and changing thresholds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Tiel, Marit; Van Loon, Anne; Wanders, Niko; Vis, Marc; Teuling, Ryan; Stahl, Kerstin

    2017-04-01

    In glacierized catchments, snowpack and glaciers function as an important storage of water and hydrographs of highly glacierized catchments in mid- and high latitudes thus show a clear seasonality with low flows in winter and high flows in summer. Due to the ongoing climate change we expect this type of storage capacity to decrease with resultant consequences for the discharge regime. In this study we focus on streamflow droughts, here defined as below average water availability specifically in the high flow season, and which methods are most suitable to characterize future streamflow droughts as regimes change. Two glacierized catchments, Nigardsbreen (Norway) and Wolverine (Alaska), are used as case study and streamflow droughts are compared between two periods, 1975-2004 and 2071-2100. Streamflow is simulated with the HBV light model, calibrated on observed discharge and seasonal glacier mass balances, for two climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 & RCP 8.5). In studies on future streamflow drought often the same variable threshold of the past has been applied to the future, but in regions where a regime shift is expected this method gives severe "droughts" in the historic high-flow period. We applied the new alternative transient variable threshold, a threshold that adapts to the changing hydrological regime and is thus better able to cope with this issue, but has never been thoroughly tested in glacierized catchments. As the glacier area representation in the hydrological modelling can also influence the modelled discharge and the derived streamflow droughts, we evaluated in this study both the difference between the historical variable threshold (HVT) and transient variable threshold (TVT) and two different glacier area conceptualisations (constant area (C) and dynamical area (D)), resulting in four scenarios: HVT-C, HVT-D, TVT-C and TVT-D. Results show a drastic decrease in the number of droughts in the HVT-C scenario due to increased glacier melt. The deficit

  13. Urban adaptation to mega-drought: Anticipatory water modeling, policy, and planning in Phoenix

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gober, P.; Sampson, D. A.; Quay, R.; White, D. D.; Chow, W.

    2016-12-01

    There is increasing interest in using the results of water models for long-term planning and policy analysis. Achieving this goal requires more effective integration of human dimensions into water modeling and a paradigm shift in the way models are developed and used. A user-defined focus argues in favor of models that are designed to foster public debate and engagement about the difficult trade-offs that are inevitable in managing complex water systems. These models also emphasize decision making under uncertainty and anticipatory planning, and are developed through a collaborative and iterative process. This paper demonstrates the use of anticipatory modeling for long-term drought planning in Phoenix, one of the largest and fastest growing urban areas in the southwestern USA. WaterSim 5, an anticipatory water policy and planning model, was used to explore groundwater sustainability outcomes for mega-drought conditions across a range of policies, including population growth management, water conservation, water banking, direct reuse of RO reclaimed water, and water augmentation. Results revealed that business-as-usual population growth, per capita use trends, and management strategies may not be sustainable over the long term, even without mega-drought conditions as years of available groundwater supply decline over the simulation period from 2000 to 2060. Adding mega-drought increases the decline in aquifer levels and increases the variability in flows and uncertainty about future groundwater supplies. Simulations that combine drought management policies can return the region to sustainable. Results demonstrate the value of long-term planning and policy analysis for anticipating and adapting to environmental change.

  14. Market Anatomy of a Drought: Modeling Barge and Corn Market Adaptation to Reduced Rainfall and Low Mississippi River Water Levels During the 2012 Midwestern U.S. Drought

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foster, B.; Characklis, G. W.; Thurman, W. N.

    2015-12-01

    In mid 2012, a severe drought swept across the Midwest, the heartland of corn production in the U.S. When the drought persisted into late Fall, corn markets were affected in two distinct ways: (1) reduced rainfall led to projected and actual corn yields that were lower than expected and (2) navigation restrictions, a result of low water levels on the Mississippi River, disrupted barge transportation, the most common and inexpensive mode for moving corn to many markets. Both (1) and (2) led to significant financial losses, but due to the complexity of the economic system and the coincidence of two different market impacts, the size of the role that low water levels played wass unclear. This is important, as losses related to low water levels are used to justify substantial investments in dredging activities on the Mississippi River. An "engineering" model of the system, suggests that low water levels should drive large increases in barge and corn prices, while some econometric models suggest that water levels explain very little of the changes in barge rates and corn prices. Employing a model that integrates both the engineering and economic elements of the system indicates that corn prices and barge rates during the drought display spatial and temporal behavior that is difficult to explain using either the engineering or econometric models alone. This integrated model accounts for geographic and temporal variations in drought impacts and identifies unique market responses to four different sets of conditions over the drought's length. Results illustrate that corn and barge price responses during the drought were a product of comingled, but distinct, reactions to both supply changes and navigation disruptions. Results also provide a more structured description of how the economic system that governs corn allocation interacts with the Mississippi River system during drought. As both public and private parties discuss potential managerial or infrastructural methods

  15. Methods and Model Dependency of Extreme Event Attribution: The 2015 European Drought

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hauser, Mathias; Gudmundsson, Lukas; Orth, René; Jézéquel, Aglaé; Haustein, Karsten; Vautard, Robert; van Oldenborgh, Geert J.; Wilcox, Laura; Seneviratne, Sonia I.

    2017-10-01

    Science on the role of anthropogenic influence on extreme weather events, such as heatwaves or droughts, has evolved rapidly in the past years. The approach of "event attribution" compares the occurrence-probability of an event in the present, factual climate with its probability in a hypothetical, counterfactual climate without human-induced climate change. Several methods can be used for event attribution, based on climate model simulations and observations, and usually researchers only assess a subset of methods and data sources. Here, we explore the role of methodological choices for the attribution of the 2015 meteorological summer drought in Europe. We present contradicting conclusions on the relevance of human influence as a function of the chosen data source and event attribution methodology. Assessments using the maximum number of models and counterfactual climates with pre-industrial greenhouse gas concentrations point to an enhanced drought risk in Europe. However, other evaluations show contradictory evidence. These results highlight the need for a multi-model and multi-method framework in event attribution research, especially for events with a low signal-to-noise ratio and high model dependency such as regional droughts.

  16. Pervasive drought legacies in forest ecosystems and their implications for carbon cycle models

    Science.gov (United States)

    W. R. L. Anderegg; C. Schwalm; F. Biondi; J. J. Camarero; G. Koch; M. Litvak; K. Ogle; J. D. Shaw; E. Shevliakova; A. P. Williams; A. Wolf; E. Ziaco; S. Pacala

    2015-01-01

    The impacts of climate extremes on terrestrial ecosystems are poorly understood but important for predicting carbon cycle feedbacks to climate change. Coupled climate-carbon cycle models typically assume that vegetation recovery from extreme drought is immediate and complete, which conflicts with the understanding of basic plant physiology. We examined the recovery of...

  17. Evaluation of Stochastic Rainfall Models in Capturing Climate Variability for Future Drought and Flood Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chowdhury, A. F. M. K.; Lockart, N.; Willgoose, G. R.; Kuczera, G. A.; Kiem, A.; Nadeeka, P. M.

    2016-12-01

    One of the key objectives of stochastic rainfall modelling is to capture the full variability of climate system for future drought and flood risk assessment. However, it is not clear how well these models can capture the future climate variability when they are calibrated to Global/Regional Climate Model data (GCM/RCM) as these datasets are usually available for very short future period/s (e.g. 20 years). This study has assessed the ability of two stochastic daily rainfall models to capture climate variability by calibrating them to a dynamically downscaled RCM dataset in an east Australian catchment for 1990-2010, 2020-2040, and 2060-2080 epochs. The two stochastic models are: (1) a hierarchical Markov Chain (MC) model, which we developed in a previous study and (2) a semi-parametric MC model developed by Mehrotra and Sharma (2007). Our hierarchical model uses stochastic parameters of MC and Gamma distribution, while the semi-parametric model uses a modified MC process with memory of past periods and kernel density estimation. This study has generated multiple realizations of rainfall series by using parameters of each model calibrated to the RCM dataset for each epoch. The generated rainfall series are used to generate synthetic streamflow by using a SimHyd hydrology model. Assessing the synthetic rainfall and streamflow series, this study has found that both stochastic models can incorporate a range of variability in rainfall as well as streamflow generation for both current and future periods. However, the hierarchical model tends to overestimate the multiyear variability of wet spell lengths (therefore, is less likely to simulate long periods of drought and flood), while the semi-parametric model tends to overestimate the mean annual rainfall depths and streamflow volumes (hence, simulated droughts are likely to be less severe). Sensitivity of these limitations of both stochastic models in terms of future drought and flood risk assessment will be discussed.

  18. Including hydrological self-regulating processes in peatland models: Effects on peatmoss drought projections.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nijp, Jelmer J; Metselaar, Klaas; Limpens, Juul; Teutschbein, Claudia; Peichl, Matthias; Nilsson, Mats B; Berendse, Frank; van der Zee, Sjoerd E A T M

    2017-02-15

    The water content of the topsoil is one of the key factors controlling biogeochemical processes, greenhouse gas emissions and biosphere - atmosphere interactions in many ecosystems, particularly in northern peatlands. In these wetland ecosystems, the water content of the photosynthetic active peatmoss layer is crucial for ecosystem functioning and carbon sequestration, and is sensitive to future shifts in rainfall and drought characteristics. Current peatland models differ in the degree in which hydrological feedbacks are included, but how this affects peatmoss drought projections is unknown. The aim of this paper was to systematically test whether the level of hydrological detail in models could bias projections of water content and drought stress for peatmoss in northern peatlands using downscaled projections for rainfall and potential evapotranspiration in the current (1991-2020) and future climate (2061-2090). We considered four model variants that either include or exclude moss (rain)water storage and peat volume change, as these are two central processes in the hydrological self-regulation of peatmoss carpets. Model performance was validated using field data of a peatland in northern Sweden. Including moss water storage as well as peat volume change resulted in a significant improvement of model performance, despite the extra parameters added. The best performance was achieved if both processes were included. Including moss water storage and peat volume change consistently reduced projected peatmoss drought frequency with >50%, relative to the model excluding both processes. Projected peatmoss drought frequency in the growing season was 17% smaller under future climate than current climate, but was unaffected by including the hydrological self-regulating processes. Our results suggest that ignoring these two fine-scale processes important in hydrological self-regulation of northern peatlands will have large consequences for projected climate change impact on

  19. Joint meteorological and hydrological drought model: a management tool for proactive water resources planning of semi-arid regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Modaresi Rad, Arash; Ahmadi Ardakani, Samira; Ghahremani, Zahra; Ghahreman, Bijan; Khalili, Davar

    2016-04-01

    Conventionally drought analysis has been limited to single drought category. Utilization of models incorporating multiple drought categories, can relax this limitation. A copula-based model is proposed, which uses meteorological and hydrological drought indices to assess drought events for ultimate management of water resources, at small scales, i.e., sub-watersheds. The study area is a sub basin located at Karkheh watershed (western Iran), utilizing 41-year data of 4 raingauge stations and one hydrometric station located upstream and at the outlet respectively. Prior to drought analysis, time series of precipitation and streamflow records are investigated for possible dependency/significant trend. Considering the semi-arid nature of the study area, boxplots are utilized to graphically capture the rainy months, which used to evaluate the degree of correlation between streamflow and precipitation records via nonparametric correlations and bivariate tail dependence. Time scales of 3- and 12-month are considered, which are used to study vulnerability of early vegetation establishment and long-term ecosystem resilience, respectively. Among four common goodness of fit tests, the Cramér-von-Mises is found preferable for defining copula distribution functions through Akaike & Bayesian information criteria and coefficient of determination. Furthermore the uncertainty associated with different copula models is measured using the concept of entropy. A new bivariate drought modeling approach is proposed through copulas. The proposed index, named standardized precipitation-streamflow index (SPSI) is compared with two separate indices of streamflow drought index (SDI) and standardized precipitation index (SPI). According to results, the SPSI could detect onset of droughts dominated by precipitation as is similarly indicated by SPI index. It also captures discordant case of normal period precipitation with dry period streamflow and vice versa. Finally, combination of severity

  20. FOREST ECOLOGY. Pervasive drought legacies in forest ecosystems and their implications for carbon cycle models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderegg, W R L; Schwalm, C; Biondi, F; Camarero, J J; Koch, G; Litvak, M; Ogle, K; Shaw, J D; Shevliakova, E; Williams, A P; Wolf, A; Ziaco, E; Pacala, S

    2015-07-31

    The impacts of climate extremes on terrestrial ecosystems are poorly understood but important for predicting carbon cycle feedbacks to climate change. Coupled climate-carbon cycle models typically assume that vegetation recovery from extreme drought is immediate and complete, which conflicts with the understanding of basic plant physiology. We examined the recovery of stem growth in trees after severe drought at 1338 forest sites across the globe, comprising 49,339 site-years, and compared the results with simulated recovery in climate-vegetation models. We found pervasive and substantial "legacy effects" of reduced growth and incomplete recovery for 1 to 4 years after severe drought. Legacy effects were most prevalent in dry ecosystems, among Pinaceae, and among species with low hydraulic safety margins. In contrast, limited or no legacy effects after drought were simulated by current climate-vegetation models. Our results highlight hysteresis in ecosystem-level carbon cycling and delayed recovery from climate extremes. Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

  1. Large-scale hydrological modelling in the semi-arid north-east of Brazil

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Guentner, A.

    2002-09-01

    Semi-arid areas are characterized by small water resources. An increasing water demand due to population growth and economic development as well as a possible decreasing water availability in the course of climate change may aggravate water scarcity in future in these areas. The quantitative assessment of the water resources is a prerequisite for the development of sustainable measures of water management. For this task, hydrological models within a dynamic integrated framework are indispensable tools. The main objective of this study is to develop a hydrological model for the quantification of water availability over a large geographic domain of semi-arid environments. The study area is the Federal State of Ceara in the semi-arid north-east of Brazil. Surface water from reservoirs provides the largest part of water supply. The area has recurrently been affected by droughts which caused serious economic losses and social impacts like migration from the rural regions. (orig.)

  2. Potential predictability sources of the 2012 U.S. drought in observations and a regional model ensemble

    Science.gov (United States)

    PaiMazumder, Debasish; Done, James M.

    2016-11-01

    The 2012 drought was the most severe and extensive summertime U.S. drought in half a century with substantial economic loss and impacts on food security and commodity prices. A unique aspect of the 2012 drought was its rapid onset and intensification over the Southern Rockies, extending to the Great Plains during late spring and early summer, and the absence of known precursor large-scale patterns. Drought prediction therefore remains a major challenge. This study evaluates relationships among snow, soil moisture, and precipitation to identify sources of potential predictability of the 2012 summer drought using observations and a Weather Research and Forecasting model multiphysics ensemble experiment. Although underestimated in intensity, the drought signal is robust to the way atmospheric physical processes are represented in the model. For the Southern Rockies, soil moisture exhibits stronger persistence than precipitation in observations and the ensemble experiment. Correlations between winter/spring snowmelt and concurrent and following season soil moisture, and between soil moisture and concurrent and following season precipitation, in both observations and the model ensemble, suggest potential predictability beyond 1 and 2 month lead-time reside in the land surface conditions for apparent flash droughts such as the 2012 drought.

  3. Application of Multiple Evaluation Models in Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rafael Victal Saliba

    2008-07-01

    Full Text Available Based on two different samples, this article tests the performance of a number of Value Drivers commonly used for evaluating companies by finance practitioners, through simple regression models of cross-section type which estimate the parameters associated to each Value Driver, denominated Market Multiples. We are able to diagnose the behavior of several multiples in the period 1994-2004, with an outlook also on the particularities of the economic activities performed by the sample companies (and their impacts on the performance through a subsequent analysis with segregation of companies in the sample by sectors. Extrapolating simple multiples evaluation standards from analysts of the main financial institutions in Brazil, we find that adjusting the ratio formulation to allow for an intercept does not provide satisfactory results in terms of pricing errors reduction. Results found, in spite of evidencing certain relative and absolute superiority among the multiples, may not be generically representative, given samples limitation.

  4. Quantifying human impact on hydrological drought using an Earth System Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Huijgevoort, Marjolein; Chaney, Nathaniel; Malyshev, Sergey; Shevliakova, Elena; Milly, Chris

    2017-04-01

    Predicting the human impact on the present and future hydrological cycle remains a significant scientific challenge. Anthropogenic impact includes water management practices like diverting water for irrigation, abstraction of groundwater, and reservoirs. Hydrological extremes, in particular, are heavily affected by water management practices, due to the existing stress on the system during droughts and floods. Therefore, to prepare adaptation plans for hydrological extremes in the future, it is essential to account for water management and other human influences in Earth System Models. In this study we have implemented water management practices in the state-of-the-art GFDL land model, which includes terrestrial water, energy, and carbon balances. Both irrigation practices and reservoirs have been added in the land surface model component of the model. Irrigation amounts are determined from the soil water balance, the evaporative demand of the vegetation and fractional coverage of croplands. The resulting water demand is fulfilled by abstractions from surface water and groundwater. Reservoir outflow is dynamically coupled to the downstream water demand and available reservoir storage. Retrospective model simulations over the contiguous United States indicate a strong human influence on hydrological drought. A water management attribution analysis shows a significant impact on the water availability, mostly in the Midwest of the United States and California. Implementation of reservoirs alters the flow regime, thereby decreasing the short-term drought impact, however, in the case of multi-year drought, impacts are delayed due to the dependency on the reservoir outflow. Irrigation, on the other hand, decreases the water availability in rivers due to increased evapotranspiration leading to a higher drought impact. The average increase in evapotranspiration amounted up to 2 mm/day for cropland areas in California and Texas. Overall, the results show the importance of

  5. Simulation of ENSO Forcings on U.S. Drought by the HadCM3 Coupled Climate Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Busby, S. J.; Briffa, K.; Osborn, T.

    2007-05-01

    The ability of the HadCM3 coupled ocean - atmosphere general circulation model to represent the mechanisms linking the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and drought in the U.S. is investigated. Rotated principal components analyses of a self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index (scPDSI) data are used to identify the dominant modes of summer drought variability in the observed climate record (1901-2002), and in a 250-year period of a HadCM3 control run. A similar mode of drought variability is identified in both data sets that is correlated with ENSO variability: a monopolar pattern across the continental interior, centred in the southern states. HadCM3 successfully reproduces the displacement of the mid-latitude jet streams during ENSO events, a mechanism related to U.S. drought variability, but the model appears to be less realistic in its simulation of the influence of Rossby wave teleconections on drought, possibly due to errors in its simulation of ENSO in the equatorial Pacific. Despite this, we conclude that HadCM3's simulation of the link between ENSO and U.S. drought is sufficiently realistic for it to be used in further studies of U.S. drought variability.

  6. Drought Risk Modeling for Thermoelectric Power Plants Siting using an Excess Over Threshold Approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bekera, Behailu B [George Washington University; Francis, Royce A [George Washington University; Omitaomu, Olufemi A [ORNL

    2014-01-01

    Water availability is among the most important elements of thermoelectric power plant site selection and evaluation criteria. With increased variability and changes in hydrologic statistical stationarity, one concern is the increased occurrence of extreme drought events that may be attributable to climatic changes. As hydrological systems are altered, operators of thermoelectric power plants need to ensure a reliable supply of water for cooling and generation requirements. The effects of climate change are expected to influence hydrological systems at multiple scales, possibly leading to reduced efficiency of thermoelectric power plants. In this paper, we model drought characteristics from a thermoelectric systems operational and regulation perspective. A systematic approach to characterise a stream environment in relation to extreme drought occurrence, duration and deficit-volume is proposed and demonstrated. This approach can potentially enhance early stage decisions in identifying candidate sites for a thermoelectric power plant application and allow investigation and assessment of varying degrees of drought risk during more advanced stages of the siting process.

  7. Assessing Drought Impacts on Water Storage using GRACE Satellites and Regional Groundwater Modeling in the Central Valley of California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scanlon, B. R.; Zhang, Z.; Save, H.; Faunt, C. C.; Dettinger, M. D.

    2015-12-01

    Increasing concerns about drought impacts on water resources in California underscores the need to better understand effects of drought on water storage and coping strategies. Here we use a new GRACE mascons solution with high spatial resolution (1 degree) developed at the Univ. of Texas Center for Space Research (CSR) and output from the most recent regional groundwater model developed by the U.S. Geological Survey to evaluate changes in water storage in response to recent droughts. We also extend the analysis of drought impacts on water storage back to the 1980s using modeling and monitoring data. The drought has been intensifying since 2012 with almost 50% of the state and 100% of the Central Valley under exceptional drought in 2015. Total water storage from GRACE data declined sharply during the current drought, similar to the rate of depletion during the previous drought in 2007 - 2009. However, only 45% average recovery between the two droughts results in a much greater cumulative impact of both droughts. The CSR GRACE Mascons data offer unprecedented spatial resolution with no leakage to the oceans and no requirement for signal restoration. Snow and reservoir storage declines contribute to the total water storage depletion estimated by GRACE with the residuals attributed to groundwater storage. Rates of groundwater storage depletion are consistent with the results of regional groundwater modeling in the Central Valley. Traditional approaches to coping with these climate extremes has focused on surface water reservoir storage; however, increasing conjunctive use of surface water and groundwater and storing excess water from wet periods in depleted aquifers is increasing in the Central Valley.

  8. Predicting and attributing recent East African Spring droughts with dynamical-statistical climate model ensembles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Funk, C. C.; Shukla, S.; Hoerling, M. P.; Robertson, F. R.; Hoell, A.; Liebmann, B.

    2013-12-01

    During boreal spring, eastern portions of Kenya and Somalia have experienced more frequent droughts since 1999. Given the region's high levels of food insecurity, better predictions of these droughts could provide substantial humanitarian benefits. We show that dynamical-statistical seasonal climate forecasts, based on the latest generation of coupled atmosphere-ocean and uncoupled atmospheric models, effectively predict boreal spring rainfall in this area. Skill sources are assessed by comparing ensembles driven with full-ocean forcing with ensembles driven with ENSO-only sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Our analysis suggests that both ENSO and non-ENSO Indo-Pacific SST forcing have played an important role in the increase in drought frequencies. Over the past 30 years, La Niña drought teleconnections have strengthened, while non-ENSO Indo-Pacific convection patterns have also supported increased (decreased) Western Pacific (East African) rainfall. To further examine the relative contribution of ENSO, low frequency warming and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, we present decompositions of ECHAM5, GFS, CAM4 and GMAO AMIP simulations. These decompositions suggest that rapid warming in the western Pacific and steeper western-to-central Pacific SST gradients have likely played an important role in the recent intensification of the Walker circulation, and the associated increase in East African aridity. A linear combination of time series describing the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the strength of Indo-Pacific warming are shown to track East African rainfall reasonably well. The talk concludes with a few thoughts linking the potentially important interplay of attribution and prediction. At least for recent East African droughts, it appears that a characteristic Indo-Pacific SST and precipitation anomaly pattern can be linked statistically to support forecasts and attribution analyses. The combination of traditional AGCM attribution analyses with simple yet

  9. Combining land surface models and remote sensing data to estimate evapotranspiration for drought monitoring in Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cammalleri, C.; Sepulcre-Cantó, G.; Vogt, J.

    2014-10-01

    The main hydrologic feedback from the land-surface to the atmosphere is the evapotranspiration, ET, which embraces the response of both the soil and vegetated surface to the atmospheric forcing (e.g., precipitation and temperature), as well as influences locally atmospheric humidity, cloud formation and precipitation, the main driver for drought. Actual ET is regulated by several factors, including biological quantities (e.g., rooting depth, leaf area, fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation) and soil water status. The ET temporal dynamic is strongly affected by rainfall deficits, and in turn it represents a robust proxy of the effects of water shortage on plants. These characteristics make ET a promising quantity for monitoring environmental drought, defined as a shortage of water availability that reduces the ecosystem productivity. In the last few decades, the capability to accurately model ET over large areas in a spatial-distributed fashion has increased notably. Most of the improvements in this field are related to the increasing availability of remote sensing data, and the achievements in modelling of ET-related quantities. Several land-surface models exploit the richness of newly available datasets, including the Community Land Model (CLM) and the Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) ET outputs. Here, the potentiality of ET maps obtained by combining land-surface models and remote sensing data through these two schemes is explored, with a special focus on the reliability of ET (and derived standardized variables) as drought indicator. Tests were performed over Europe at moderate spatial resolution (3-5 km), with the final goal to improve the estimation of soil water status as a contribution to the European Drought Observatory (EDO, http://edo.jrc.ec.europa.eu).

  10. Integrated meteorological and hydrological drought model: A management tool for proactive water resources planning of semi-arid regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rad, Arash Modaresi; Ghahraman, Bijan; Khalili, Davar; Ghahremani, Zahra; Ardakani, Samira Ahmadi

    2017-09-01

    Conventionally, drought analysis has been limited to single drought category. Utilization of models incorporating multiple drought categories, can relax this limitation. A copula-based model is proposed, which uses meteorological and hydrological drought characteristics to assess drought events for ultimate management of water resources, at small scales, i.e., sub-watersheds. The chosen study area is a sub-basin located at Karkheh watershed (western Iran), with five raingauge stations and one hydrometric station, located upstream and at the outlet, respectively, which represent 41-year of data. Prior to drought analysis, time series of precipitation and streamflow records are investigated for possible dependency/significant trend. Considering semi-arid nature of the study area, boxplots are utilized to graphically capture the rainy months, which are used to evaluate the degree of correlation between streamflow and precipitation records via nonparametric correlations. Time scales of 3- and 12-month are considered, which are used to study vulnerability of early vegetation establishment and long-term ecosystem resilience, respectively. Among four common goodness of fit (GOF) tests, Anderson-Darling is found preferable for defining copula distribution functions through GOF measures, i.e., Akaike and Bayesian information criteria and normalized root mean square error. Furthermore, a GOF method is proposed to evaluate the uncertainty associated with different copula models using the concept of entropy. A new bivariate drought modeling approach is proposed through copulas. The proposed index named standardized precipitation-streamflow index (SPSI) unlike common indices which are used in conjunction with station data, can be applied on a regional basis. SPDI is compared with widely applied streamflow drought index (SDI) and standardized precipitation index (SPI). To assess the homogeneity of the dependence structure of SPSI regionally, Kendall-τ and upper tail coefficient

  11. Forecasting of meteorological drought using Hidden Markov Model (case study: The upper Blue Nile river basin, Ethiopia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mosaad Khadr

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available An improved drought management must rely on an accurate monitoring and forecasting of the phenomenon in order to activate appropriate mitigation measures. In this study, several homogenous Hidden Markov Models (HMMs were developed to forecast droughts using the Standardized Precipitation Index, SPI, at short-medium term. Validation of the developed models was carried out with reference to precipitation series observed in 22 stations located in the upper Blue Nile river basin. The performance of the HMM was measured using various forecast skill criteria. Results indicate that Hidden Markov Model provides a fairly good agreement between observed and forecasted values in terms of the SPI time series on various lead time. Results seem to confirm the reliability of the proposed models to discriminate between events and non-events relatively well, thus suggesting the suitability of the proposed procedure as a tool for drought management and drought early warning.

  12. Modelling drought-induced dieback of Aleppo pine at the arid timberline

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wingate, Lisa; Preisler, Yakir; Bert, Didier; Rotenberg, Eyal; Yakir, Dan; Maseyk, Kadmiel; Ogee, Jerome

    2016-04-01

    During the mid 1960's an ambitious afforestation programme was initiated in the Negev desert of Israel. After five decades enduring harsh growing conditions, the Aleppo pine forest of Yatir is now exhibiting signs of 'drought-induced' dieback. Since 2010, 5-10% of the entire Yatir population have died, however the pattern of mortality is extremely patchy with some areas exhibiting >80% mortality whilst others display none. In this presentation, we reflect on historic climatic and edaphic conditions that have triggered this landscape mosaic of survival and mortality and how physiological and hydraulic traits vary within this patchwork. In addition, we explore how these pine trees have responded physiologically over recent years (1996-2010) to a series of severe drought events using a combined approach that brings together micrometeorological, dendro-isotopic and dendro-climatological datasets alongside process-based modelling. In particular the dataset trends were investigated with the isotope-enabled ecosystem model MuSICA to explore the consequences of subsequent droughts and embolism on modelled carbohydrate and water pool dynamics and their impact on carbon allocation and ecosystem function.

  13. Drought Events and Their Impacts on Food Production in New Zealand: Historical Analysis and Outlook Model Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Y.; Yin, C.; Urich, P.; Hill, R.

    2012-12-01

    Given the importance of the primary production sector, climatic conditions have always been a significant driver of food production in New Zealand. The country has experienced a number of severe droughts throughout its history, where a number of extended periods of low rainfall have severely impacted primary production. The characteristics of historical drought and their impacts on the primary production sector are analysed, including the economic losses in the 1998-1999 and 2007-2009 events. We include the analysis of a set of national standardised drought monitoring indices: Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI), Standardised Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), Soil moisture Index (SMI), and Standardised Pasture Growth Index (SPGI). Since the drought events in New Zealand are clearly linked with ENSO, the SST anomalies in the key regions can be good predictors of drought events. Artificial Neural Network (ANN) information processing technics have been applied to build local drought outlook models, the predictors are the SST anomaly of eight key regions that impact New Zealand climate produced by the Climate Forecasting System v2(CFSv2) of NCEP, and the local NIWA derived observed precipitation and soil moisture data. SST is a variable that CFSv2 can forecast with high skill and after bias correction, can be applied as a climate predictor for New Zealand. Inclusion of local data and the persistent nature of drought leads to good predictors therefore one to three month ensemble drought outlooks can be produced for New Zealand. The potential changes of drought intensity and frequency over the medium to long term future are investigated using downscaled data from 12 GCMs and multiple scenarios. The results indicate that New Zealand may experience more severe drought in many areas, therefore adaptation should be planned and implemented.

  14. The US CLIVAR Working Group on Drought: A Multi-Model Assessment of the Impact of SST Anomalies on Regional Drought

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schubert, Siegfried

    2008-01-01

    The US CLIVAR working group on drought recently initiated a series of global climate model simulations forced with idealized SST anomaly patterns, designed to address a number of uncertainties regarding the impact of SST forcing and the role of land-atmosphere feedbacks on regional drought. Specific questions that the runs are designed to address include: What are mechanisms that maintain drought across the seasonal cycle and from one year to the next. What is the role of the land? What is the role of the different ocean basins, including the impact of EL Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO), and warming trends in the global oceans? The runs were done with several global atmospheric models including NASA/NSIPP-1, NCEP/GFS, GFDL/AM2, and NCAR CCM3 and CAM3. In addition, runs were done with the NCEP CFS (coupled atmosphere-ocean) model by employing a novel adjustment technique to nudge the coupled model towards the imposed SST forcing patterns. This talk provides an overview of the experiments and some initial results.

  15. Study of drought processes in Spain by means of offline Land-Surface Model simulations. Evaluation of model sensitivity to the meteorological forcing dataset.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quintana-Seguí, Pere; Míguez-Macho, Gonzalo; Barella-Ortiz, Anaïs

    2017-04-01

    Drought affects different aspects of the continental water cycle, from precipitation (meteorological drought), to soil moisture (agricultural drought), streamflow, lake volume and piezometric levels (hydrological drought). The spatial and temporal scales of drought, together with its propagation through the system must be well understood. Drought is a hazard impacting all climates and regions of the world; but in some areas, such as Spain, its societal impacts may be especially severe, creating water resources related tensions between regions and sectors. Indices are often used to characterize different aspects of drought. Similar indices can be built for precipitation (SPI), soil moisture (SSMI), and streamflow (SSI), allowing to analyse the temporal scales of drought and its spatial patterns. Precipitation and streamflow data are abundant in Spain; however soil moisture data is scarce. Land-Surface Models (LSM) physically simulate the continental water cycle and, thus, are appropriate tools to quantify soil moisture and other relevant variables and processes. These models can be run offline, forced by a gridded dataset of meteorological variables, usually a re-analysis. The quality of the forcing dataset affects the quality of the subsequent modeling results and is, thus, crucial. The objective of this study is to investigate how sensitive LSM simulations are to the forcing dataset, with a focus on drought. A global and a local dataset are used at different resolutions. The global dataset is the eartH2Observe dataset, which is based on ERA-Interim. The local dataset is the SAFRAN meteorological analysis system. The LSMs used are SURFEX and LEAFHYDRO. Standardized indices of the relevant variables are produced for all the simulations performed. Then, we analyze how differently drought propagates through the system in the different simulations and how similar are spatial and temporal scales of drought. The results of this study will be useful to understand the

  16. Long-term Regional Drought Forecasting by Combining Seasonal Weather Outlook, Hydrological Model and System Dynamic Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuo, C.; Wang, Y.; Yang, T.; Yu, P.

    2012-12-01

    This study integrated the rainfall-runoff model, seasonal weather outlook, and VENSIM system dynamic model to construct a long-term regional drought forecasting system. Central Taiwan contains several river basins. The water supplies and demands in these river basins compose several water resources systems in the region. To develop a long-term regional drought forecasting system for this region, the simulations of interaction among the water resources systems are required. The future inflows of reservoir for each individual water resources system are forecasted based on the seasonal (3 months ahead) weather outlook and the rainfall-runoff model. Then, the future water usage (trade-off between water demand and supply) of all water resources systems can be simulated by using the VENSIM system dynamic model. Therefore, the long-term regional drought can be forecasted based on the future water usage. The seasonal weather outlook provided by the Central Weather Bureau of Taiwan is the trend probabilities of the monthly rainfall and monthly mean temperature for the three months ahead. By using the re-sampling approach, the trend probabilities for the future three months are converted to daily series as the input of rainfall-runoff model. The inflows of reservoir for each water resources system are simulated by the rainfall-runoff model (i.e., the HBV-based hydrological model) with corresponding calibrated model parameters. Then, the study can simulate the daily inflow series in the next 3 months. Since the study area contains several water resources systems, the VENSIM system dynamic model is used to simulate the trade-off between water supply and demand on the whole region. In the system dynamic model, the interactions among the available water, demand of each location and the adjustable water for neighbor system are simulated. Based on the simulations of VENSIM system dynamic model, the study can forecast the deficit amounts and the locations of possible drought in the

  17. Evaluation of a Model-Based Groundwater Drought Indicator in the Conterminous U.S.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Bailing; Rodell, Matthew

    2015-01-01

    Monitoring groundwater drought using land surface models is a valuable alternative given the current lack of systematic in situ measurements at continental and global scales and the low resolution of current remote sensing based groundwater data. However, uncertainties inherent to land surface models may impede drought detection, and thus should be assessed using independent data sources. In this study, we evaluated a groundwater drought index (GWI) derived from monthly groundwater storage output from the Catchment Land Surface Model (CLSM) using a GWI similarly derived from in situ groundwater observations. Groundwater observations were obtained from unconfined or semi-confined aquifers in eight regions of the central and northeastern U.S. Regional average GWI derived from CLSM exhibited strong correlation with that from observation wells, with correlation coefficients between 0.43 and 0.92. GWI from both in situ data and CLSM was generally better correlated with the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) at 12 and 24 month timescales than at shorter timescales, but it varied depending on climate conditions. The correlation between CLSM derived GWI and SPI generally decreases with increasing depth to the water table, which in turn depends on both bedrock depth (a CLSM parameter) and mean annual precipitation. The persistence of CLSM derived GWI is spatially varied and again shows a strong influence of depth to groundwater. CLSM derived GWI generally persists longer than GWI derived from in situ data, due at least in part to the inability of coarse model inputs to capture high frequency meteorological variability at local scales. The study also showed that groundwater can have a significant impact on soil moisture persistence where the water table is shallow. Soil moisture persistence was estimated to be longer in the eastern U.S. than in the west, in contrast to previous findings that were based on models that did not represent groundwater. Assimilation of terrestrial

  18. Application of a hybrid association rules/decision tree model for drought monitoring

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nourani, Vahid; Molajou, Amir

    2017-12-01

    The previous researches have shown that the incorporation of the oceanic-atmospheric climate phenomena such as Sea Surface Temperature (SST) into hydro-climatic models could provide important predictive information about hydro-climatic variability. In this paper, the hybrid application of two data mining techniques (decision tree and association rules) was offered to discover affiliation between drought of Tabriz and Kermanshah synoptic stations (located in Iran) and de-trend SSTs of the Black, Mediterranean and Red Seas. Two major steps of the proposed model were the classification of de-trend SST data and selecting the most effective groups and extracting hidden information involved in the data. The techniques of decision tree which can identify the good traits from a data set for the classification purpose were used for classification and selecting the most effective groups and association rules were employed to extract the hidden predictive information from the large observed data. To examine the accuracy of the rules, confidence and Heidke Skill Score (HSS) measures were calculated and compared for different considering lag times. The computed measures confirm reliable performance of the proposed hybrid data mining method to forecast drought and the results show a relative correlation between the Mediterranean, Black and Red Sea de-trend SSTs and drought of Tabriz and Kermanshah synoptic stations so that the confidence between the monthly Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) values and the de-trend SST of seas is higher than 70 and 80% respectively for Tabriz and Kermanshah synoptic stations.

  19. 2-D Model Test Study of the Suape Breakwater, Brazil

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Thomas Lykke; Burcharth, Hans F.; Sopavicius, A.

    This report deals with a two-dimensional model test study of the extension of the breakwater in Suape, Brazil. One cross-section was tested for stability and overtopping in various sea conditions. The length scale used for the model tests was 1:35. Unless otherwise specified all values given...

  20. Simulating the 2012 High Plains Drought Using Three Single Column Models (SCM)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Medina, I. D.; Baker, I. T.; Denning, S.; Dazlich, D. A.

    2015-12-01

    The impact of changes in the frequency and severity of drought on fresh water sustainability is a great concern for many regions of the world. One such location is the High Plains, where the local economy is primarily driven by fresh water withdrawals from the Ogallala Aquifer, which accounts for approximately 30% of total irrigation withdrawals from all U.S. aquifers combined. Modeling studies that focus on the feedback mechanisms that control the climate and eco-hydrology during times of drought are limited, and have used conventional General Circulation Models (GCMs) with grid length scales ranging from one hundred to several hundred kilometers. Additionally, these models utilize crude statistical parameterizations of cloud processes for estimating sub-grid fluxes of heat and moisture and have a poor representation of land surface heterogeneity. For this research, we focus on the 2012 High Plains drought and perform numerical simulations using three single column model (SCM) versions of BUGS5 (Colorado State University (CSU) GCM coupled to the Simple Biosphere Model (SiB3)). In the first version of BUGS5, the model is used in its standard bulk setting (single atmospheric column coupled to a single instance of SiB3), secondly, the Super-Parameterized Community Atmospheric Model (SP-CAM), a cloud resolving model (CRM) (CRM consists of 32 atmospheric columns), replaces the single CSU GCM atmospheric parameterization and is coupled to a single instance of SiB3, and for the third version of BUGS5, an instance of SiB3 is coupled to each CRM column of the SP-CAM (32 CRM columns coupled to 32 instances of SiB3). To assess the physical realism of the land-atmosphere feedbacks simulated by all three versions of BUGS5, differences in simulated energy and moisture fluxes are computed between the 2011 and 2012 period and are compared to those calculated using observational data from the AmeriFlux Tower Network for the same period at the ARM Site in Lamont, OK. This research

  1. A comparison of large-scale climate signals and the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) for drought prediction in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Lei; Chen, Nengcheng; Zhang, Xiang

    2018-02-01

    Drought is an extreme natural disaster that can lead to huge socioeconomic losses. Drought prediction ahead of months is helpful for early drought warning and preparations. In this study, we developed a statistical model, two weighted dynamic models and a statistical-dynamic (hybrid) model for 1-6 month lead drought prediction in China. Specifically, statistical component refers to climate signals weighting by support vector regression (SVR), dynamic components consist of the ensemble mean (EM) and Bayesian model averaging (BMA) of the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) climatic models, and the hybrid part denotes a combination of statistical and dynamic components by assigning weights based on their historical performances. The results indicate that the statistical and hybrid models show better rainfall predictions than NMME-EM and NMME-BMA models, which have good predictability only in southern China. In the 2011 China winter-spring drought event, the statistical model well predicted the spatial extent and severity of drought nationwide, although the severity was underestimated in the mid-lower reaches of Yangtze River (MLRYR) region. The NMME-EM and NMME-BMA models largely overestimated rainfall in northern and western China in 2011 drought. In the 2013 China summer drought, the NMME-EM model forecasted the drought extent and severity in eastern China well, while the statistical and hybrid models falsely detected negative precipitation anomaly (NPA) in some areas. Model ensembles such as multiple statistical approaches, multiple dynamic models or multiple hybrid models for drought predictions were highlighted. These conclusions may be helpful for drought prediction and early drought warnings in China.

  2. Modelling soil water content variations under drought stress on soil column cropped with winter wheat

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Csorba Szilveszter

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Mathematical models are effective tools for evaluating the impact of predicted climate change on agricultural production, but it is difficult to test their applicability to future weather conditions. We applied the SWAP model to assess its applicability to climate conditions, differing from those, for which the model was developed. We used a database obtained from a winter wheat drought stress experiment. Winter wheat was grown in six soil columns, three having optimal water supply (NS, while three were kept under drought-stressed conditions (S. The SWAP model was successfully calibrated against measured values of potential evapotranspiration (PET, potential evaporation (PE and total amount of water (TSW in the soil columns. The Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient (N-S for TWS for the stressed columns was 0.92. For the NS treatment, we applied temporally variable soil hydraulic properties because of soil consolidation caused by regular irrigation. This approach improved the N-S values for the wetting-drying cycle from -1.77 to 0.54. We concluded that the model could be used for assessing the effects of climate change on soil water regime. Our results indicate that soil water balance studies should put more focus on the time variability of structuredependent soil properties.

  3. Application of Physically based landslide susceptibility models in Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carvalho Vieira, Bianca; Martins, Tiago D.

    2017-04-01

    Shallow landslides and floods are the processes responsible for most material and environmental damages in Brazil. In the last decades, some landslides events induce a high number of deaths (e.g. Over 1000 deaths in one event) and incalculable social and economic losses. Therefore, the prediction of those processes is considered an important tool for land use planning tools. Among different methods the physically based landslide susceptibility models having been widely used in many countries, but in Brazil it is still incipient when compared to other ones, like statistical tools and frequency analyses. Thus, the main objective of this research was to assess the application of some Physically based landslide susceptibility models in Brazil, identifying their main results, the efficiency of susceptibility mapping, parameters used and limitations of the tropical humid environment. In order to achieve that, it was evaluated SHALSTAB, SINMAP and TRIGRS models in some studies in Brazil along with the Geotechnical values, scales, DEM grid resolution and the results based on the analysis of the agreement between predicted susceptibility and the landslide scar's map. Most of the studies in Brazil applied SHALSTAB, SINMAP and to a lesser extent the TRIGRS model. The majority researches are concentrated in the Serra do Mar mountain range, that is a system of escarpments and rugged mountains that extends more than 1,500 km along the southern and southeastern Brazilian coast, and regularly affected by heavy rainfall that generates widespread mass movements. Most part of these studies used conventional topographic maps with scales ranging from 1:2000 to 1:50000 and DEM-grid resolution between 2 and 20m. Regarding the Geotechnical and hydrological values, a few studies use field collected data which could produce more efficient results, as indicated by international literature. Therefore, even though they have enormous potential in the susceptibility mapping, even for comparison

  4. Use of Drought Index and Crop Modelling for Drought Impacts Analysis on Maize (Zea mays L.) Yield Loss in Bandung District

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kurniasih, E.; Impron; Perdinan

    2017-03-01

    Drought impacts on crop yield loss depend on drought magnitude and duration and on plant genotype at every plant growth stages when droughts occur. This research aims to assess the difference calculation results of 2 drought index methods and to study the maize yield loss variability impacted by drought magnitude and duration during maize growth stages in Bandung district, province of West Java, Indonesia. Droughts were quantified by the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) at 1- to 3-month lags for the January1986-December 2015 period data. Maize yield responses to droughts were simulated by AquaCrop for the January 1986-May 2016 period of growing season. The analysis showed that the SPI and SPEI methods provided similar results in quantifying drought event. Droughts during maize reproductive stages caused the highest maize yield loss.

  5. A PROBABILITY MODEL FOR DROUGHT PREDICTION USING FUSION OF MARKOV CHAIN AND SAX METHODS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Jouybari-Moghaddam

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Drought is one of the most powerful natural disasters which are affected on different aspects of the environment. Most of the time this phenomenon is immense in the arid and semi-arid area. Monitoring and prediction the severity of the drought can be useful in the management of the natural disaster caused by drought. Many indices were used in predicting droughts such as SPI, VCI, and TVX. In this paper, based on three data sets (rainfall, NDVI, and land surface temperature which are acquired from MODIS satellite imagery, time series of SPI, VCI, and TVX in time limited between winters 2000 to summer 2015 for the east region of Isfahan province were created. Using these indices and fusion of symbolic aggregation approximation and hidden Markov chain drought was predicted for fall 2015. For this purpose, at first, each time series was transformed into the set of quality data based on the state of drought (5 group by using SAX algorithm then the probability matrix for the future state was created by using Markov hidden chain. The fall drought severity was predicted by fusion the probability matrix and state of drought severity in summer 2015. The prediction based on the likelihood for each state of drought includes severe drought, middle drought, normal drought, severe wet and middle wet. The analysis and experimental result from proposed algorithm show that the product of this algorithm is acceptable and the proposed algorithm is appropriate and efficient for predicting drought using remote sensor data.

  6. a Probability Model for Drought Prediction Using Fusion of Markov Chain and SAX Methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jouybari-Moghaddam, Y.; Saradjian, M. R.; Forati, A. M.

    2017-09-01

    Drought is one of the most powerful natural disasters which are affected on different aspects of the environment. Most of the time this phenomenon is immense in the arid and semi-arid area. Monitoring and prediction the severity of the drought can be useful in the management of the natural disaster caused by drought. Many indices were used in predicting droughts such as SPI, VCI, and TVX. In this paper, based on three data sets (rainfall, NDVI, and land surface temperature) which are acquired from MODIS satellite imagery, time series of SPI, VCI, and TVX in time limited between winters 2000 to summer 2015 for the east region of Isfahan province were created. Using these indices and fusion of symbolic aggregation approximation and hidden Markov chain drought was predicted for fall 2015. For this purpose, at first, each time series was transformed into the set of quality data based on the state of drought (5 group) by using SAX algorithm then the probability matrix for the future state was created by using Markov hidden chain. The fall drought severity was predicted by fusion the probability matrix and state of drought severity in summer 2015. The prediction based on the likelihood for each state of drought includes severe drought, middle drought, normal drought, severe wet and middle wet. The analysis and experimental result from proposed algorithm show that the product of this algorithm is acceptable and the proposed algorithm is appropriate and efficient for predicting drought using remote sensor data.

  7. Remote Sensing of Grass Response to Drought Stress Using Spectroscopic Techniques and Canopy Reflectance Model Inversion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bagher Bayat

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study was to follow the response to drought stress in a Poa pratensis canopy exposed to various levels of soil moisture deficit. We tracked the changes in the canopy reflectance (450–2450 nm and retrieved vegetation properties (Leaf Area Index (LAI, leaf chlorophyll content (Cab, leaf water content (Cw, leaf dry matter content (Cdm and senescent material (Cs during a drought episode. Spectroscopic techniques and radiative transfer model (RTM inversion were employed to monitor the gradual manifestation of drought effects in a laboratory setting. Plots of 21 cm × 14.5 cm surface area with Poa pratensis plants that formed a closed canopy were divided into a well-watered control group and a group subjected to water stress for 36 days. In a regular weekly schedule, canopy reflectance and destructive measurements of LAI and Cab were taken. Spectral analysis indicated the first sign of stress after 4–5 days from the start of the experiment near the water absorption bands (at 1930 nm, 1440 nm and in the red (at 675 nm. Spectroscopic techniques revealed plant stress up to 6 days earlier than visual inspection. Of the water stress-related vegetation indices, the response of Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI_1241 and Normalized Photochemical Reflectance Index (PRI_norm were significantly stronger in the stressed group than the control. To observe the effects of stress on grass properties during the drought episode, we used the RTMo (RTM of solar and sky radiation model inversion by means of an iterative optimization approach. The performance of the model inversion was assessed by calculating R2 and the Normalized Root Mean Square Error (RMSE between retrieved and measured LAI (R2 = 0.87, NRMSE = 0.18 and Cab (R2 = 0.74, NRMSE = 0.15. All parameters retrieved by model inversion co-varied with soil moisture deficit. However, the first strong sign of water stress on the retrieved grass properties was detected as a change of Cw

  8. Group on Earth Observations (GEO) Global Drought Monitor Portal: Adding Capabilities for Forecasting Hydrological Extremes and Early Warning Networking

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pozzi, W.; de Roo, A.; Vogt, J.; Lawford, R. G.; Pappenberger, F.; Heim, R. R.; Stefanski, R.

    2011-12-01

    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC 2007) has suggested the hydrometeorological extremes of both drought and flooding may increase under climate change. Drought zones can grow over large tracts of continental area and are a global-scale phenomenon (Sheffield and Wood 2011). The Group on Earth Observations Global Drought Monitor Portal (GDMP) was established as a demonstration for the 5th Earth Observation Ministerial Summit in Beijing in 2010. The European Drought Observatory, the North American Drought Monitor, the Princeton University experimental African Drought Monitor, and the University College London experimental global drought monitor were made "interoperable" through installation of Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) Web Mapping Services (WMS) on their respective servers, allowing maps of current drought conditions to be exchanged and assembled into maps of global drought coverage on the NIDIS portal. Partners from the Republic of Argentina, the Commonwealth of Australia, China, Jordan, Brazil, and Uruguay have also joined. The GEO Global Drought Monitoring, Forecasting, and Early Warning effort involves multiple parties and institutions, including the World Meteorological Organization, the World Climate Research Program Drought Interest Group, NASA, and others. The GEO Secretariat held a launch workshop in Geneva on 4-6 May 2010 to initiate drafting the final GEO Work Plan, and, during this meeting, additional capabilities were added to the existing GDMP: 1) drought forecasting was added to drought "current conditions" monitoring, in a partnership with Joint Research Centre (and other partners) aiming at a combined platform for Hydrological Extremes (drought and flooding); 2) extending drought forecasts from the medium-range 15-day window to a 30-day window; this will be tested through pilot projects over Europe and Africa, as part of the Global Water Scarcity Information Service (GLOWASIS)and the Improved Drought Early Warning Forecasting

  9. Exploring hydrogeological controls on river and groundwater vulnerability to droughts using synthetic models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carlier, Claire; Wirth, Stefanie B.; Cochand, Fabien; Hunkeler, Daniel; Brunner, Philip

    2017-04-01

    Characterising the vulnerability of watersheds to droughts is essential to guarantee water supply under changing climatic conditions. Numerous studies have analysed watershed processes under dry conditions focusing on surface flows. However, hydrological catchment dynamics, and especially river low-flows, are strongly dependent on the surrounding hydrogeological settings. We thus propose an integrated quantification of the impact of prolonged dry periods on both surface water and groundwater. To achieve this, we consider various catchment properties representative of a wide range of geological and topographical environments. The relationship between these physical parameters and low-flow dynamics in a catchment is highly complex, and no straightforward correlation can be obtained by analysing easily measurable catchment properties such as slope or main geological units. A modelling approach is therefore developed to systematically and independently quantify the control mechanisms of catchment parameters on river and groundwater dynamics. The physically based numerical model HydroGeoSphere is used, which simulates surface water and groundwater in a fully coupled way. More than 200 synthetic models are designed with systematically varying geometrical parameters such as river and hill slopes, as well as hydraulic conductivities and porosities of the main geological units. A clear correlation between the porous storage volume in a catchment and the resilience to drought of both streamflow and groundwater is observed. An attempt to link these results to real watersheds is made by analysing the flows, the geology and the hydrogeological properties of a selection of catchments. The validation of the synthetic results with observations will allow the development of drought sensitivity indicators applicable to both groundwater and river low-flows based solely on watershed physical properties.

  10. Seasonal Drought Prediction in East Africa: Can National Multi-Model Ensemble Forecasts Help?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shukla, Shraddhanand; Roberts, J. B.; Funk, Christopher; Robertson, F. R.; Hoell, Andrew

    2015-01-01

    The increasing food and water demands of East Africa's growing population are stressing the region's inconsistent water resources and rain-fed agriculture. As recently as in 2011 part of this region underwent one of the worst famine events in its history. Timely and skillful drought forecasts at seasonal scale for this region can inform better water and agro-pastoral management decisions, support optimal allocation of the region's water resources, and mitigate socio-economic losses incurred by droughts. However seasonal drought prediction in this region faces several challenges. Lack of skillful seasonal rainfall forecasts; the focus of this presentation, is one of those major challenges. In the past few decades, major strides have been taken towards improvement of seasonal scale dynamical climate forecasts. The National Centers for Environmental Prediction's (NCEP) National Multi-model Ensemble (NMME) is one such state-of-the-art dynamical climate forecast system. The NMME incorporates climate forecasts from 6+ fully coupled dynamical models resulting in 100+ ensemble member forecasts. Recent studies have indicated that in general NMME offers improvement over forecasts from any single model. However thus far the skill of NMME for forecasting rainfall in a vulnerable region like the East Africa has been unexplored. In this presentation we report findings of a comprehensive analysis that examines the strength and weakness of NMME in forecasting rainfall at seasonal scale in East Africa for all three of the prominent seasons for the region. (i.e. March-April-May, July-August-September and October-November- December). Simultaneously we also describe hybrid approaches; that combine statistical approaches with NMME forecasts; to improve rainfall forecast skill in the region when raw NMME forecasts lack in skill.

  11. Comparison of childbirth care models in public hospitals, Brazil

    OpenAIRE

    Vogt,Sibylle Emilie; da Silva, K?tia Silveira; Dias,Marcos Augusto Bastos

    2014-01-01

    OBJECTIVE To compare collaborative and traditional childbirth care models. METHODS Cross-sectional study with 655 primiparous women in four public health system hospitals in Belo Horizonte, MG, Southeastern Brazil, in 2011 (333 women for the collaborative model and 322 for the traditional model, including those with induced or premature labor). Data were collected using interviews and medical records. The Chi-square test was used to compare the outcomes and multivariate logistic regression to...

  12. A Socio-Hydrological Model of the Voluntary Urban Water Conservation Behavior during Droughts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sangwan, N.; Eisma, J. A.; Sung, K.; Yu, D. J.

    2016-12-01

    Several cities across the globe are increasingly struggling to meet the water demands of their population. By 2050, nearly 160 million urban dwellers are likely to face perennial water shortage due to ever rising population numbers and climate change. As observed once again during recent drought in California, voluntary water conservation is a key approach for managing urban water availability during periods of constrained supply. It relies on behavioral adaptation that is critical for long-term reductions in water use and building drought resilient communities. Strong interdependencies between human group behavior and regional hydrology in this context entail that the two components be coupled together in a socio-hydrology model to fully understand the dynamics of urban water systems. This work proposes a conceptual framework for one such model and simulates the dynamics of a voluntary conservation program in Marin Municipal Water District, California using dynamic systems modeling approach. Through this model, we plan to assess the effects of different social factors (such as social concern and conformist tendencies) and climato-hydrological conditions (viz. storage levels and weather forecast) on the trajectory of a voluntary conservation program. Our preliminary results have indicated several `tipping points' which can be capitalized on by policy makers to boost conservation at low social costs.

  13. Capturing flood-to-drought transitions in regional climate model simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anders, Ivonne; Haslinger, Klaus; Hofstätter, Michael; Salzmann, Manuela; Resch, Gernot

    2017-04-01

    In previous studies atmospheric cyclones have been investigated in terms of related precipitation extremes in Central Europe. Mediterranean (Vb-like) cyclones are of special relevance as they are frequently related to high atmospheric moisture fluxes leading to floods and landslides in the Alpine region. Another focus in this area is on droughts, affecting soil moisture and surface and sub-surface runoff as well. Such events develop differently depending on available pre-saturation of water in the soil. In a first step we investigated two time periods which encompass a flood event and a subsequent drought on very different time scales, one long lasting transition (2002/2003) and a rather short one between May and August 2013. In a second step we extended the investigation to the long time period 1950-2016. We focused on high spatial and temporal scales and assessed the currently achievable accuracy in the simulation of the Vb-events on one hand and following drought events on the other hand. The state-of-the-art regional climate model CCLM is applied in hindcast-mode simulating the single events described above, but also the time from 1948 to 2016 to evaluate the results from the short runs to be valid for the long time period. Besides the conventional forcing of the regional climate model at its lateral boundaries, a spectral nudging technique is applied. The simulations covering the European domain have been varied systematically different model parameters. The resulting precipitation amounts have been compared to E-OBS gridded European precipitation data set and a recent high spatially resolved precipitation data set for Austria (GPARD-6). For the drought events the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), soil moisture and runoff has been investigated. Varying the spectral nudging setup helps us to understand the 3D-processes during these events, but also to identify model deficiencies. To improve the simulation of such events in the past

  14. Global Climate Model Simulated Hydrologic Droughts and Floods in the Nelson-Churchill Watershed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vieira, M. J. F.; Stadnyk, T. A.; Koenig, K. A.

    2014-12-01

    There is uncertainty surrounding the duration, magnitude and frequency of historical hydroclimatic extremes such as hydrologic droughts and floods prior to the observed record. In regions where paleoclimatic studies are less reliable, Global Climate Models (GCMs) can provide useful information about past hydroclimatic conditions. This study evaluates the use of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) GCMs to enhance the understanding of historical droughts and floods across the Canadian Prairie region in the Nelson-Churchill Watershed (NCW). The NCW is approximately 1.4 million km2 in size and drains into Hudson Bay in Northern Manitoba, Canada. One hundred years of observed hydrologic records show extended dry and wet periods in this region; however paleoclimatic studies suggest that longer, more severe droughts have occurred in the past. In Manitoba, where hydropower is the primary source of electricity, droughts are of particular interest as they are important for future resource planning. Twenty-three GCMs with daily runoff are evaluated using 16 metrics for skill in reproducing historic annual runoff patterns. A common 56-year historic period of 1950-2005 is used for this evaluation to capture wet and dry periods. GCM runoff is then routed at a grid resolution of 0.25° using the WATFLOOD hydrological model storage-routing algorithm to develop streamflow scenarios. Reservoir operation is naturalized and a consistent temperature scenario is used to determine ice-on and ice-off conditions. These streamflow simulations are compared with the historic record to remove bias using quantile mapping of empirical distribution functions. GCM runoff data from pre-industrial and future projection experiments are also bias corrected to obtain extended streamflow simulations. GCM streamflow simulations of more than 650 years include a stationary (pre-industrial) period and future periods forced by radiative forcing scenarios. Quantile mapping adjusts for magnitude

  15. Estimating carbon and showing impacts of drought using satellite data in regression-tree models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boyte, Stephen; Wylie, Bruce K.; Howard, Danny; Dahal, Devendra; Gilmanov, Tagir G.

    2018-01-01

    Integrating spatially explicit biogeophysical and remotely sensed data into regression-tree models enables the spatial extrapolation of training data over large geographic spaces, allowing a better understanding of broad-scale ecosystem processes. The current study presents annual gross primary production (GPP) and annual ecosystem respiration (RE) for 2000–2013 in several short-statured vegetation types using carbon flux data from towers that are located strategically across the conterminous United States (CONUS). We calculate carbon fluxes (annual net ecosystem production [NEP]) for each year in our study period, which includes 2012 when drought and higher-than-normal temperatures influence vegetation productivity in large parts of the study area. We present and analyse carbon flux dynamics in the CONUS to better understand how drought affects GPP, RE, and NEP. Model accuracy metrics show strong correlation coefficients (r) (r ≥ 94%) between training and estimated data for both GPP and RE. Overall, average annual GPP, RE, and NEP are relatively constant throughout the study period except during 2012 when almost 60% less carbon is sequestered than normal. These results allow us to conclude that this modelling method effectively estimates carbon dynamics through time and allows the exploration of impacts of meteorological anomalies and vegetation types on carbon dynamics.

  16. Modeling of coastal water contamination in Fortaleza (Northeastern Brazil)

    OpenAIRE

    Pereira, S P; Rosman, P.C.C.; Álvarez Díaz, César; Schetini, C.A.F.; Souza,R. O. de; R.H.S.F. Vieira

    2015-01-01

    An important tool in environmental management projects and studies due to the complexity of environmental systems, environmental modeling makes it possible to integrate many variables and processes, thereby providing a dynamic view of systems. In this study the bacteriological quality of the coastal waters of Fortaleza (Brazil) was modeled considering multiple contamination sources. Using the software SisBaHiA, the dispersion of thermotolerant coliforms and Escherichia coli from three sources...

  17. Using plant growth modeling to analyse C source-sink relations under drought: inter and intra specific comparison

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Benoit ePallas

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available The ability to assimilate C and allocate NSC (non structural carbohydrates to the most appropriate organs is crucial to maximize plant ecological or agronomic performance. Such C source and sink activities are differentially affected by environmental constraints. Under drought, plant growth is generally more sink than source limited as organ expansion or appearance rate is earlier and stronger affected than C assimilation. This favors plant survival and recovery but not always agronomic performance as NSC are stored rather than used for growth due to a modified metabolism in source and sink leaves. Such interactions between plant C and water balance are complex and plant modeling can help analyzing their impact on plant phenotype. This paper addresses the impact of trade-offs between C sink and source activities and plant production under drought, combining experimental and modeling approaches. Two contrasted monocotyledonous species (rice, oil palm were studied. Experimentally, the sink limitation of plant growth under moderate drought was confirmed as well as the modifications in NSC metabolism in source and sink organs. Under severe stress, when C source became limiting, plant NSC concentration decreased. Two plant models dedicated to oil palm and rice morphogenesis were used to perform a sensitivity analysis and further explore how to optimize C sink and source drought sensitivity to maximize plant growth. Modeling results highlighted that optimal drought sensitivity depends both on drought type and species and that modeling is a great opportunity to analyse such complex processes. Further modeling needs and more generally the challenge of using models to support complex trait breeding are discussed.

  18. Soil- and crop-dependent variation in correlation lag between precipitation and agricultural drought indices as predicted by the SWAP model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wright, Azin; Cloke, Hannah; Verhoef, Anne

    2017-04-01

    Droughts have a devastating impact on agriculture and economy. The risk of more frequent and more severe droughts is increasing due to global warming and certain anthropogenic activities. At the same time, the global population continues to rise and the need for sustainable food production is becoming more and more pressing. In light of this, drought prediction can be of great value; in the context of early warning, preparedness and mitigation of drought impacts. Prediction of meteorological drought is associated with uncertainties around precipitation variability. As meteorological drought propagates, it can transform into agricultural drought. Determination of the maximum correlation lag between precipitation and agricultural drought indices can be useful for prediction of agricultural drought. However, the influence of soil and crop type on the lag needs to be considered, which we explored using a 1-D Soil-Vegetation-Atmosphere-Transfer model (SWAP (http://www.swap.alterra.nl/), with the following configurations, all forced with ERA-Interim weather data (1979 to 2014): i) different crop types in the UK; ii) three generic soil types (clay, loam and sand) were considered. A Sobol sensitivity analysis was carried out (perturbing the SWAP model van Genuchten soil hydraulic parameters) to study the effect of soil type uncertainty on the water balance variables. Based on the sensitivity analysis results, a few variations of each soil type were selected. Agricultural drought indices including Soil Moisture Deficit Index (SMDI) and Evapotranspiration Deficit Index (ETDI) were calculated. The maximum correlation lag between precipitation and these drought indices was calculated, and analysed in the context of crop and soil model parameters. The findings of this research can be useful to UK farming, by guiding government bodies such as the Environment Agency when issuing drought warnings and implementing drought measures.

  19. Suitability of modelled and remotely sensed essential climate variables for monitoring Euro-Mediterranean droughts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Szczypta, C.; Calvet, J.-C.; Maignan, F.; Dorigo, W.; Baret, F.; Ciais, P.

    2014-05-01

    Two new remotely sensed leaf area index (LAI) and surface soil moisture (SSM) satellite-derived products are compared with two sets of simulations of the ORganizing Carbon and Hydrology In Dynamic EcosystEms (ORCHIDEE) and Interactions between Soil, Biosphere and Atmosphere, CO2-reactive (ISBA-A-gs) land surface models. We analyse the interannual variability over the period 1991-2008. The leaf onset and the length of the vegetation growing period (LGP) are derived from both the satellite-derived LAI and modelled LAI. The LGP values produced by the photosynthesis-driven phenology model of ISBA-A-gs are closer to the satellite-derived LAI and LGP than those produced by ORCHIDEE. In the latter, the phenology is based on a growing degree day model for leaf onset, and on both climatic conditions and leaf life span for senescence. Further, the interannual variability of LAI is better captured by ISBA-A-gs than by ORCHIDEE. In order to investigate how recent droughts affected vegetation over the Euro-Mediterranean area, a case study addressing the summer 2003 drought is presented. It shows a relatively good agreement of the modelled LAI anomalies with the observations, but the two models underestimate plant regrowth in the autumn. A better representation of the root-zone soil moisture profile could improve the simulations of both models. The satellite-derived SSM is compared with SSM simulations of ISBA-A-gs only, as ORCHIDEE has no explicit representation of SSM. Overall, the ISBA-A-gs simulations of SSM agree well with the satellite-derived SSM and are used to detect regions where the satellite-derived product could be improved. Finally, a correspondence is found between the interannual variability of detrended SSM and LAI. The predictability of LAI is less pronounced using remote sensing observations than using simulated variables. However, consistent results are found in July for the croplands of the Ukraine and southern Russia.

  20. Integrating ecophysiology and forest landscape models to improve projections of drought effects under climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gustafson, Eric J; De Bruijn, Arjan M G; Pangle, Robert E; Limousin, Jean-Marc; McDowell, Nate G; Pockman, William T; Sturtevant, Brian R; Muss, Jordan D; Kubiske, Mark E

    2015-02-01

    Fundamental drivers of ecosystem processes such as temperature and precipitation are rapidly changing and creating novel environmental conditions. Forest landscape models (FLM) are used by managers and policy-makers to make projections of future ecosystem dynamics under alternative management or policy options, but the links between the fundamental drivers and projected responses are weak and indirect, limiting their reliability for projecting the impacts of climate change. We developed and tested a relatively mechanistic method to simulate the effects of changing precipitation on species competition within the LANDIS-II FLM. Using data from a field precipitation manipulation experiment in a piñon pine (Pinus edulis) and juniper (Juniperus monosperma) ecosystem in New Mexico (USA), we calibrated our model to measurements from ambient control plots and tested predictions under the drought and irrigation treatments against empirical measurements. The model successfully predicted behavior of physiological variables under the treatments. Discrepancies between model output and empirical data occurred when the monthly time step of the model failed to capture the short-term dynamics of the ecosystem as recorded by instantaneous field measurements. We applied the model to heuristically assess the effect of alternative climate scenarios on the piñon-juniper ecosystem and found that warmer and drier climate reduced productivity and increased the risk of drought-induced mortality, especially for piñon. We concluded that the direct links between fundamental drivers and growth rates in our model hold great promise to improve our understanding of ecosystem processes under climate change and improve management decisions because of its greater reliance on first principles. Published 2014. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

  1. Evaluating stomatal models and their atmospheric drought response in a land surface scheme: A multibiome analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knauer, Jürgen; Werner, Christiane; Zaehle, Sönke

    2015-10-01

    Stomatal conductance (gs) is a key variable in Earth system models as it regulates the transfer of carbon and water between the terrestrial biosphere and the lower atmosphere. Various approaches have been developed that aim for a simple representation of stomatal regulation applicable at the global scale. These models differ, among others, in their response to atmospheric humidity, which induces stomatal closure in a dry atmosphere. In this study, we compared the widely used empirical Ball-Berry and Leuning stomatal conductance models to an alternative empirical approach, an optimization-based approach, and a semimechanistic hydraulic model. We evaluated these models using evapotranspiration (ET) and gross primary productivity (GPP) observations derived from eddy covariance measurements at 56 sites across multiple biomes and climatic conditions. The different models were embedded in the land surface model JSBACH. Differences in performance across plant functional types or climatic conditions were small, partly owing to the large variations in the observational data. The models yielded comparable results at low to moderate atmospheric drought but diverged under dry atmospheric conditions, where models with a low sensitivity to air humidity tended to overestimate gs. The Ball-Berry model gave the best fit to the data for most biomes and climatic conditions, but all evaluated approaches have proven adequate for use in land surface models. Our findings further encourage future efforts toward a vegetation-type-specific parameterization of gs to improve the modeling of coupled terrestrial carbon and water dynamics.

  2. A GIS-based methodology for drought vulnerability modelling: application at the region of el Hodna, central Algeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Meriem Boultif

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Boultif, M. and Benmessaoud, H. 2017. A GIS-based methodology for drought vulnerability modelling: application at the region of el Hodna, central Algeria. Lebanese Science Journal, 18(1: 53-72. Desert covers 80% of the Algerian territory, while the remaining area is covered by Mediterranean forests and arid climate steppe that are characterized by severe vulnerability to different stresses such as drought, especially with the increase of nefarious human impact and the overuse of natural resources. The objective of this study is to analyse and assess drought vulnerability in the area of El Hodna in central Algeria. The methodology was based on the use of GIS tools and multi-criteria analysis (Analytical hierarchy process to develop a model of vulnerability mapping. The results showed that 35.67% of the study area was very vulnerable, 32.77% in fragile situation, 19.72% are potentially vulnerable, and only 11.83% of the surface is not affected. The drought-vulnerability map provides a basis from which it will be possible to prevent and prepare for a drought response.

  3. Impact of a Regional Drought on Terrestrial Carbon Fluxes and Atmospheric Carbon: Results from a Coupled Carbon Cycle Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Eunjee; Koster, Randal D.; Ott, Lesley E.; Weir, Brad; Mahanama, Sarith; Chang, Yehui; Zeng, Fan-Wei

    2017-01-01

    Understanding the underlying processes that control the carbon cycle is key to predicting future global change. Much of the uncertainty in the magnitude and variability of the atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) stems from uncertainty in terrestrial carbon fluxes, and the relative impacts of temperature and moisture variations on regional and global scales are poorly understood. Here we investigate the impact of a regional drought on terrestrial carbon fluxes and CO2 mixing ratios over North America using the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) Model. Results show a sequence of changes in carbon fluxes and atmospheric CO2, induced by the drought. The relative contributions of meteorological changes to the neighboring carbon dynamics are also presented. The coupled modeling approach allows a direct quantification of the impact of the regional drought on local and proximate carbon exchange at the land surface via the carbon-water feedback processes.

  4. A review of continental scale hydrological models and their suitability for drought forecasting in (sub-Saharan) Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trambauer, P.; Maskey, S.; Winsemius, H.; Werner, M.; Uhlenbrook, S.

    The aim of this review is to provide a basis for selecting a suitable hydrological model, or combination of models, for hydrological drought forecasting in Africa at different temporal and spatial scales; for example short and medium range (1-10 days or monthly) forecasts at medium to large river basin scales or seasonal forecasts at the Pan-African scale. Several global hydrological models are currently available with different levels of complexity and data requirements. However, most of these models are likely to fail to properly represent the water balance components that are particularly relevant in arid and semi-arid basins in sub-Saharan Africa. This review critically looks at weaknesses and strengths in the representation of different hydrological processes and fluxes of each model. The major criteria used for assessing the suitability of the models are (1) the representation of the processes that are most relevant for simulating drought conditions, such as interception, evaporation, surface water-groundwater interactions in wetland areas and flood plains and soil moisture dynamics; (2) the capability of the model to be downscaled from a continental scale to a large river basin scale model; and (3) the applicability of the model to be used operationally for drought early warning, given the data availability of the region. This review provides a framework for selecting models for hydrological drought forecasting, conditional on spatial scale, data availability and end-user forecast requirements. Among 16 well known hydrological and land surface models selected for this review, PCR-GLOBWB, GWAVA, HTESSEL, LISFLOOD and SWAT show higher potential and suitability for hydrological drought forecasting in Africa based on the criteria used in this evaluation.

  5. 2011 spring drought in France : Evaluation of the SURFEX land surface model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lafont, S.; Barbu, A.; Szczypta, C.; Carrer, D.; Delire, C.; Calvet, J.-C.

    2012-04-01

    The spring of the year 2011 has been exceptionally dry in Western Europe. Over France, May 2011 has been one of the driest over the last 50 years. This event had a marked impact on vegetation development leading to very low value of the Leaf Area Index (LAI) during the growing season . In contrast, July 2011 has been in general wet and cold allowing a new vegetation development. This extreme event, followed by higher than normal rainfall is an excellent case-study to evaluate the capacity of a land surface model to simulate the drought impact on vegetation, and vegetation recovery after a drought. In this study, we used the SURFEX land surface model, in its ISBA-CC (CC stands for Carbon Cycle) configuration. The ISBA-CC version simulates the vegetation carbon cycle, interactive LAI and the carbon accumulation in wood and in the soil organic matter. This model is used by the GEOLAND2 Land Carbon Core Information Service. We performed 20-years simulations of SURFEX at high resolution (8 km) with atmospheric forcing from the SAFRAN dataset, an operational product over France. The vegetation map is provided by the ECOCLIMAP2 database. Following previous work that have confirmed a good simulation of the LAI inter-annual variability, this study investigates the ability of the model of reproducing the observed anomalies of LAI in 2011, in terms of timing and spatial patterns. We compare the simulated LAI with long time series (10 yr) of LAI derived from Earth Observation product within GEOLAND2 BIOPAR project. We quantify the anomalies of energy, water and carbon fluxes. We investigate the robustness of these results and the impact of modifying several important sub-modules of the model: soil texture, photosynthesis, and rainfall interception.

  6. A safety culture maturity model for petrochemical companies in Brazil

    OpenAIRE

    Goncalves Filho, Anastacio Pinto; Andrade,José Célio Silveira; Marinho,Marcia Mara de Oliveira

    2010-01-01

    Acesso restrito: Texto completo. p. 615-624 A framework to measure safety culture maturity in the Brazilian oil and gas companies was formulated based on the model of Hudson (2001). Following a review of the safety culture literature, a questionnaire was designed to measure five aspects of organisational safety indicative of five levels of cultural maturity. The questionnaire was completed by the safety managers of 23 petrochemical companies based in Camacari,Bahia, Brazil and they were...

  7. A multifaceted exploration of hydrologic drought using GRACE satellite observations and computer modeling

    OpenAIRE

    Thomas, Alys Caitlyn

    2014-01-01

    Prolonged hydrologic drought disturbs the natural state of ecosystems, stresses regional water supplies, and can adversely affect agricultural production. Determining the severity of hydrologic drought traditionally depended on evaluations of historical rainfall, stream flow, and soil moisture; yet, a comprehensive measure of the magnitude of a drought's impact on all components of the terrestrial hydrologic system, including surface, soil, and groundwater storage, remains lacking in standard...

  8. Combining modelled and remote sensing soil moisture anomalies for an operational global drought monitoring

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cammalleri, Carmelo; Vogt, Jürgen

    2017-04-01

    Soil moisture anomalies (i.e., deviations from the climatology) are often seen as a reliable tool to monitor and quantify the occurrence of drought events and their potential impacts, especially in agricultural and naturally vegetated lands. Soil moisture datasets (or their proxy) can be derived from a variety of sources, including land-surface models and thermal and microwave satellite remote sensing images. However, each data source has different advantages and drawbacks that prevent to unequivocally prefer one dataset over the others, especially in global applications that encompass a wide range of soil moisture regimes. The analysis of the spatial reliability of the different datasets at global scale is further complicated by the lack of reliable long-term soil moisture records for a ground validation over most regions. To overcome this limitation, in recent years the Triple Collocation (TC) technique has been deployed in order to quantify the likely errors associated to three mutually-independent datasets without assuming that one of them represents the "truth". In this study, three global datasets of soil moisture anomalies are investigated: the first one derived from the runs of the Lisflood hydrological model, the second one obtained from the combined active/passive microwave dataset produced in the framework of the European Space Agency (ESA) Climate Change Initiative (CCI), and the last one derived from the Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Land Surface Temperature (LST) observations. A preliminary analysis of the three datasets aimed at detecting the areas where the TC technique can be successfully applied, hence the spatial distribution of the random error variance for each model is evaluated. This study allows providing useful advises for a robust combination of the three datasets into a single product for a more reliable global drought monitoring.

  9. Droughts in the US: Modeling and Forecasting for Agriculture-Water Management and Adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perveen, S.; Devineni, N.; Lall, U.

    2012-12-01

    More than half of all US counties are currently mired in a drought that is considered the worst in decades. A persistent drought can not only lead to widespread impacts on water access with interstate implications (as has been shown in the Southeast US and Texas), chronic scarcity can emerge as a risk in regions where fossil aquifers have become the primary source of supply and are being depleted at rates much faster than recharge (e.g., Midwestern US). The standardized drought indices on which the drought declarations are made in the US so far consider only the static decision frameworks—where only the supply is the control variable and not the water consumption. If a location has low demands, drought as manifest in the usual indices does not really have "proportionate" social impact. Conversely, a modest drought as indicated by the traditional measures may have significant impacts where demand is close to the climatological mean value of precipitation. This may also lead to drought being declared too late or too soon. Against this fact, the importance of improved drought forecasting and preparedness for different sectors of the economy becomes increasingly important. The central issue we propose to address through this paper is the construction and testing of a drought index that considers regional water demands for specific purposes (e.g., crops, municipal use) and their temporal distribution over the year for continental US. Here, we have highlighted the use of the proposed index for three main sectors: (i) water management organizations, (ii) optimizing agricultural water use, and (iii) supply chain water risk. The drought index will consider day-to-day climate variability and sectoral demands to develop aggregate regional conditions or disaggregated indices for water users. For the daily temperature and precipitation data, we are using NLDAS dataset that is available from 1949 onwards. The national agricultural statistics services (NASS) online database has

  10. Modeling the hydrological patterns on Pantanal wetlands, Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castro, A. A.; Cuartas, A.; Coe, M. T.; Koumrouyan, A.; Panday, P. K.; Lefebvre, P.; Padovani, C.; Costa, M. H.; de Oliveira, G. S.

    2014-12-01

    The Pantanal of Brazil is one of the world's largest wetland regions. It is located within the 370,000 km2 Alto Paraguai Basin (BAP). In wet years almost 15% of the total area of the basin can be flooded (approximately 53,000 km2). The hydrological cycle is particularly important in the Pantanal in the transport of materials, and the transfer of energy between atmospheric, aquatic, and terrestrial systems. The INLAND (Integrated Land Surface Model) terrestrial ecosystem model is coupled with the THMB hydrological model to examine the hydrological balance and water dynamics for this region. The INLAND model is based on the IBIS dynamic vegetation model, while THMB represents the river, wetland and lake dynamics of the land surface. The modeled hydrological components are validated with surface and satellite-based estimates of precipitation (gridded observations from CRU v. 3.21, reanalysis data from ERA-interim, and TRMM estimates), evapotranspiration (MODIS and Land Flux-Eval dataset), total runoff (discharge data from ANA-Agência Nacional das Águas - Brazil), and terrestrial water storage (GRACE). Results show that the coupled hydrological model adequately represents the water cycle components, the river discharge and flooded areas. Model simulations are further used to study the influences of climatic variations on the hydrological components, river network, and the inundated areas in the Pantanal.

  11. Mexican drought: an observational modeling and tree ring study of variability and climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Seager, R.; Ting, M. [Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, Palisades, NY (United States)]. E-mail: seager@ldeo.columbia.edu; Davis, M. [Department of History, University of California at Irvine, CA (United States); Cane, M.; Naik, N.; Nakamura, J.; Li, C.; Cook, E. [Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, Palisades, NY (United States); Stahle, D.W. [Tree Ring Laboratory, University of Arkansas, Fayetteville, Arkansas (United States)

    2009-01-15

    Variability of Mexican hydroclimate, with special attention to persistent drought, is examined using observations, model simulations forced by historical sea surface temperature (SST), tree ring reconstructions of past climate and model simulations and projections of naturally and anthropogenically forced climate change. During the winter half year, hydroclimate across Mexico is influenced by the state of the tropical Pacific Ocean with the Atlantic playing little role. Mexican winters tend to be wetter during El Nino conditions. In the summer half year northern Mexico is also wetter when El Nino conditions prevail, but southern Mexico is drier. A warm tropical North Atlantic Ocean makes northern Mexico dry and southern Mexico wet. These relationships are reasonably well reproduced in ensembles of atmosphere model simulations forced by historical SST for the period from 1856 to 2002. Large ensembles of 100 day long integrations are used to examine the day to day evolution of the atmospheric circulation and precipitation in response to a sudden imposition of a El Nino SST anomaly in the summer half year. Kelvin waves propagate east and immediately cause increased column-integrated moisture divergence and reduced precipitation over the tropical Americas and Intra-America Seas. Within a few days a low level high pressure anomaly develops over the Gulf of Mexico. A forced nonlinear model is used to demonstrate that this low is forced by the reduced atmospheric heating over the tropical Atlantic-Intra-America Seas area. Tree ring reconstructions that extend back before the period of instrumental precipitation data coverage are used to verify long model simulations forced by historical SST. The early to mid 1950s drought in northern Mexico appears to have been the most severe since the mid nineteenth century and likely arose as a response to both a multiyear La Nina and a warm tropical North Atlantic. A drought in the 1890s was also severe and appears driven by a

  12. Analysis of agricultural drought in Iiuni, Eastern Kenya: Application of a Markov model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Biamah, E.K.; Sterk, G.; Sharma, T.C.

    2005-01-01

    In semi-arid Kenya, episodes of agricultural droughts of varying severity and duration occur. The occurrence of these agricultural droughts is associated with seasonal rainfall variability and can be reflected by seasonal soil moisture deficits that significantly affect crop performance and yield.

  13. Modeling forest mortality caused by drought stress: implications for climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eric J Gustafson; Brian R. Sturtevant

    2013-01-01

    Climate change is expected to affect forest landscape dynamics in many ways, but it is possible that the most important direct impact of climate change will be drought stress. We combined data from weather stations and forest inventory plots (FIA) across the upper Great Lakes region (USA) to study the relationship between measures of drought stress and mortality for...

  14. Development of an agricultural drought assessment system : integration of agrohydrological modelling, remote sensing and geographical information

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vazifedoust, M.

    2007-01-01

    Iran faces widespread droughts regularly, causing large economical and social damages. The agricultural sector is with 80-90 % by far the largest user of water in Iran and is often the first sector to be affected by drought. Unfortunately, water management in agriculture is also rather poor and

  15. Accelerated Growth Rate and Increased Drought Stress Resilience of the Model Grass Brachypodium distachyon Colonized by Bacillus subtilis B26.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    François Gagné-Bourque

    Full Text Available Plant growth-promoting bacteria (PGB induce positive effects in plants, for instance, increased growth and reduced abiotic stresses susceptibility. The mechanisms by which these bacteria impact the host plant are numerous, diverse and often specific. Here, we studied the agronomical, molecular and biochemical effects of the endophytic PGB Bacillus subtilis B26 on the full life cycle of Brachypodium distachyon Bd21, an established model species for functional genomics in cereal crops and temperate grasses. Inoculation of Brachypodium with B. subtilis strain B26 increased root and shoot weights, accelerated growth rate and seed yield as compared to control plants. B. subtilis strain B26 efficiently colonized the plant and was recovered from roots, stems and blades as well as seeds of Brachypodium, indicating that the bacterium is able to migrate, spread systemically inside the plant, establish itself in the aerial plant tissues and organs, and is vertically transmitted to seeds. The presence of B. subtilis strain B26 in the seed led to systemic colonization of the next generation of Brachypodium plants. Inoculated Brachypodium seedlings and mature plants exposed to acute and chronic drought stress minimized the phenotypic effect of drought compared to plants not harbouring the bacterium. Protection from the inhibitory effects of drought by the bacterium was linked to upregulation of the drought-response genes, DREB2B-like, DHN3-like and LEA-14-A-like and modulation of the DNA methylation genes, MET1B-like, CMT3-like and DRM2-like, that regulate the process. Additionally, total soluble sugars and starch contents increased in stressed inoculated plants, a biochemical indication of drought tolerance. In conclusion, we show a single inoculation of Brachypodium with a PGB affected the whole growth cycle of the plant, accelerating its growth rates, shortening its vegetative period, and alleviating drought stress effects. These effects are relevant to

  16. Large-scale characterization of drought pattern: a continent-wide modelling approach applied to the Australian wheatbelt--spatial and temporal trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chenu, Karine; Deihimfard, Reza; Chapman, Scott C

    2013-05-01

    Plant response to drought is complex, so that traits adapted to a specific drought type can confer disadvantage in another drought type. Understanding which type(s) of drought to target is of prime importance for crop improvement. Modelling was used to quantify seasonal drought patterns for a check variety across the Australian wheatbelt, using 123 yr of weather data for representative locations and managements. Two other genotypes were used to simulate the impact of maturity on drought pattern. Four major environment types summarized the variability in drought pattern over time and space. Severe stress beginning before flowering was common (44% of occurrences), with (24%) or without (20%) relief during grain filling. High variability occurred from year to year, differing with geographical region. With few exceptions, all four environment types occurred in most seasons, for each location, management system and genotype. Applications of such environment characterization are proposed to assist breeding and research to focus on germplasm, traits and genes of interest for target environments. The method was applied at a continental scale to highly variable environments and could be extended to other crops, to other drought-prone regions around the world, and to quantify potential changes in drought patterns under future climates. © 2013 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2013 New Phytologist Trust.

  17. The German drought monitor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zink, Matthias; Samaniego, Luis; Kumar, Rohini; Thober, Stephan; Mai, Juliane; Schäfer, David; Marx, Andreas

    2016-07-01

    The 2003 drought event in Europe had major implications on many societal sectors, including energy production, health, forestry and agriculture. The reduced availability of water accompanied by high temperatures led to substantial economic losses on the order of 1.5 Billion Euros, in agriculture alone. Furthermore, soil droughts have considerable impacts on ecosystems, forest fires and water management. Monitoring soil water availability in near real-time and at high-resolution, i.e., 4 × 4 km2, enables water managers to mitigate the impact of these extreme events. The German drought monitor was established in 2014 as an online platform. It uses an operational modeling system that consists of four steps: (1) a daily update of observed meteorological data by the German Weather Service, with consistency checks and interpolation; (2) an estimation of current soil moisture using the mesoscale hydrological model; (3) calculation of a quantile-based soil moisture index (SMI) based on a 60 year data record; and (4) classification of the SMI into five drought classes ranging from abnormally dry to exceptional drought. Finally, an easy to understand map is produced and published on a daily basis on www.ufz.de/droughtmonitor. Analysis of the ongoing 2015 drought event, which garnered broad media attention, shows that 75% of the German territory underwent drought conditions in July 2015. Regions such as Northern Bavaria and Eastern Saxony, however, have been particularly prone to drought conditions since autumn 2014. Comparisons with historical droughts show that the 2015 event is amongst the ten most severe drought events observed in Germany since 1954 in terms of its spatial extent, magnitude and duration.

  18. Drought impact functions as intermediate step towards drought damage assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bachmair, Sophie; Svensson, Cecilia; Prosdocimi, Ilaria; Hannaford, Jamie; Helm Smith, Kelly; Svoboda, Mark; Stahl, Kerstin

    2016-04-01

    While damage or vulnerability functions for floods and seismic hazards have gained considerable attention, there is comparably little knowledge on drought damage or loss. On the one hand this is due to the complexity of the drought hazard affecting different domains of the hydrological cycle and different sectors of human activity. Hence, a single hazard indicator is likely not able to fully capture this multifaceted hazard. On the other hand, drought impacts are often non-structural and hard to quantify or monetize. Examples are impaired navigability of streams, restrictions on domestic water use, reduced hydropower production, reduced tree growth, and irreversible deterioration/loss of wetlands. Apart from reduced crop yield, data about drought damage or loss with adequate spatial and temporal resolution is scarce, making the development of drought damage functions difficult. As an intermediate step towards drought damage functions we exploit text-based reports on drought impacts from the European Drought Impact report Inventory and the US Drought Impact Reporter to derive surrogate information for drought damage or loss. First, text-based information on drought impacts is converted into timeseries of absence versus presence of impacts, or number of impact occurrences. Second, meaningful hydro-meteorological indicators characterizing drought intensity are identified. Third, different statistical models are tested as link functions relating drought hazard indicators with drought impacts: 1) logistic regression for drought impacts coded as binary response variable; and 2) mixture/hurdle models (zero-inflated/zero-altered negative binomial regression) and an ensemble regression tree approach for modeling the number of drought impact occurrences. Testing the predictability of (number of) drought impact occurrences based on cross-validation revealed a good agreement between observed and modeled (number of) impacts for regions at the scale of federal states or

  19. On the utility of land surface models for agricultural drought monitoring

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. T. Crow

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available The lagged rank cross-correlation between model-derived root-zone soil moisture estimates and remotely sensed vegetation indices (VI is examined between January 2000 and December 2010 to quantify the skill of various soil moisture models for agricultural drought monitoring. Examined modeling strategies range from a simple antecedent precipitation index to the application of modern land surface models (LSMs based on complex water and energy balance formulations. A quasi-global evaluation of lagged VI/soil moisture cross-correlation suggests, when globally averaged across the entire annual cycle, soil moisture estimates obtained from complex LSMs provide little added skill (< 5% in relative terms in anticipating variations in vegetation condition relative to a simplified water accounting procedure based solely on observed precipitation. However, larger amounts of added skill (5–15% in relative terms can be identified when focusing exclusively on the extra-tropical growing season and/or utilizing soil moisture values acquired by averaging across a multi-model ensemble.

  20. Quantifying human impacts on hydrological drought using a combined modelling approach in a tropical river basin in central Vietnam

    Science.gov (United States)

    Firoz, A. B. M.; Nauditt, Alexandra; Fink, Manfred; Ribbe, Lars

    2018-01-01

    Hydrological droughts are one of the most damaging disasters in terms of economic loss in central Vietnam and other regions of South-east Asia, severely affecting agricultural production and drinking water supply. Their increasing frequency and severity can be attributed to extended dry spells and increasing water abstractions for e.g. irrigation and hydropower development to meet the demand of dynamic socioeconomic development. Based on hydro-climatic data for the period from 1980 to 2013 and reservoir operation data, the impacts of recent hydropower development and other alterations of the hydrological network on downstream streamflow and drought risk were assessed for a mesoscale basin of steep topography in central Vietnam, the Vu Gia Thu Bon (VGTB) River basin. The Just Another Modelling System (JAMS)/J2000 was calibrated for the VGTB River basin to simulate reservoir inflow and the naturalized discharge time series for the downstream gauging stations. The HEC-ResSim reservoir operation model simulated reservoir outflow from eight major hydropower stations as well as the reconstructed streamflow for the main river branches Vu Gia and Thu Bon. Drought duration, severity, and frequency were analysed for different timescales for the naturalized and reconstructed streamflow by applying the daily varying threshold method. Efficiency statistics for both models show good results. A strong impact of reservoir operation on downstream discharge at the daily, monthly, seasonal, and annual scales was detected for four discharge stations relevant for downstream water allocation. We found a stronger hydrological drought risk for the Vu Gia river supplying water to the city of Da Nang and large irrigation systems especially in the dry season. We conclude that the calibrated model set-up provides a valuable tool to quantify the different origins of drought to support cross-sectorial water management and planning in a suitable way to be transferred to similar river basins.

  1. Decision support for dutch drought management and climate change with the Netherland Hydrological Modeling Instrument

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hunink, J.; Hoogewoud, J. C.; Prinsen, G.; Veldhuizen, A.

    2012-04-01

    Netherlands Hydrological Modeling Instrument Decision support for dutch drought management and climate change. J. Hunink , J.C.Hoogewoud , A. Veldhuizen , G. Prinsen , The Netherlands Hydrological modeling Instrument (NHI) is the center point of a framework of models, to coherently model the hydrological system and the multitude of functions it supports. Dutch hydrological institutes Deltares, Alterra, Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, RWS Waterdienst, STOWA and Vewin are cooperating in enhancing the NHI for adequate decision support. The instrument is used by three different ministries involved in national water policy matters, for instance drought management, manure policy and climate change issues. The basis of the modeling instrument is a state-of-the-art on-line coupling of the groundwater system (MODFLOW), the unsaturated zone (metaSWAP) and the surface water system (MOZART-DM). It brings together hydro(geo)logical processes from the column to the basin scale, ranging from 250x250m plots to the river Rhine and includes salt water flow. The NHI is validated with an eight year run (1998-2006) with dry and wet periods and is updated every year. During periods of water scarcity the NHI is used for operational forecasting and decision support system for the National Board of water Distribution. It provides data on nationwide calculated water demands, development of water levels in reservoirs and possible los of yield in agricultural area's. For the exploration of the future of fresh water supply in the Netherlands an extensive study is set up using the NHI. In this study different climate scenarios are being evalueated. In the first phase the focus is on describing the range of possible effects, the second phase focuses on adaptive measures and preparing for decisions how to alter the hydrological system. Results from the first phase show that in future scenario's fresh water may not be available to current water users. Important decisions about the

  2. Estimating drought risk across Europe from reported drought impacts, drought indices, and vulnerability factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blauhut, Veit; Stahl, Kerstin; Stagge, James Howard; Tallaksen, Lena M.; De Stefano, Lucia; Vogt, Jürgen

    2016-07-01

    Drought is one of the most costly natural hazards in Europe. Due to its complexity, drought risk, meant as the combination of the natural hazard and societal vulnerability, is difficult to define and challenging to detect and predict, as the impacts of drought are very diverse, covering the breadth of socioeconomic and environmental systems. Pan-European maps of drought risk could inform the elaboration of guidelines and policies to address its documented severity and impact across borders. This work tests the capability of commonly applied drought indices and vulnerability factors to predict annual drought impact occurrence for different sectors and macro regions in Europe and combines information on past drought impacts, drought indices, and vulnerability factors into estimates of drought risk at the pan-European scale. This hybrid approach bridges the gap between traditional vulnerability assessment and probabilistic impact prediction in a statistical modelling framework. Multivariable logistic regression was applied to predict the likelihood of impact occurrence on an annual basis for particular impact categories and European macro regions. The results indicate sector- and macro-region-specific sensitivities of drought indices, with the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) for a 12-month accumulation period as the overall best hazard predictor. Vulnerability factors have only limited ability to predict drought impacts as single predictors, with information about land use and water resources being the best vulnerability-based predictors. The application of the hybrid approach revealed strong regional and sector-specific differences in drought risk across Europe. The majority of the best predictor combinations rely on a combination of SPEI for shorter and longer accumulation periods, and a combination of information on land use and water resources. The added value of integrating regional vulnerability information with drought risk prediction

  3. Climate Model Simulations of Tropical and Polar Stratospheric Aerosol Injection: Cooling but Drought

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robock, A.; Oman, L.; Stenchikov, G.

    2007-12-01

    In response to the global warming problem, there has been a recent renewed call for geoengineering "solutions" involving injecting particles into the stratosphere or blocking sunlight with satellites between the Sun and Earth. Here we describe different proposed geoengineering designs, and then show climate model calculations with the coupled atmosphere-ocean NASA GISS ModelE GCM that evaluate both their efficacy and their possible adverse consequences. We conduct experiments by simulating global warming with and without continuous emissions of sulfate aerosol precursors both into the tropical lower stratosphere and into the high latitude Northern Hemisphere lower stratosphere. We find that while stratospheric aerosols can cool the planet on a global average basis with tropical emissions or cool the Northern Hemisphere with high latitude emissions, there are also large regional climate changes in temperature and precipitation, with large areas of drought. At the current level of understanding, there are too many potential problems with geoengineering, and it would be much cheaper and easier to solve the global warming problem by reducing greenhouse gas emissions. These problems include cost, continued ocean acidification, obtaining global agreement on the optimum climate, regional climate changes, ozone depletion, reduction of solar energy for power generation, and unexpected consequences.

  4. Methods and Model Dependency of Extreme Event Attribution: The 2015 European Drought

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Hauser, Mathias; Gudmundsson, Lukas; Orth, René; Jézéquel, Aglaé; Haustein, Karsten; Vautard, Robert; van Oldenborgh, Geert J; Wilcox, Laura; Seneviratne, Sonia I

    2017-01-01

    Multi‐method event attribution of the 2015 European drought Contradicting evidence on the role of anthropogenic influence on the event Uncertainty in event attribution may be larger than previously thought...

  5. Drought and resprouting plants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeppel, Melanie J B; Harrison, Sandy P; Adams, Henry D; Kelley, Douglas I; Li, Guangqi; Tissue, David T; Dawson, Todd E; Fensham, Rod; Medlyn, Belinda E; Palmer, Anthony; West, Adam G; McDowell, Nate G

    2015-04-01

    Many species have the ability to resprout vegetatively after a substantial loss of biomass induced by environmental stress, including drought. Many of the regions characterised by ecosystems where resprouting is common are projected to experience more frequent and intense drought during the 21st Century. However, in assessments of ecosystem response to drought disturbance there has been scant consideration of the resilience and post-drought recovery of resprouting species. Systematic differences in hydraulic and allocation traits suggest that resprouting species are more resilient to drought-stress than nonresprouting species. Evidence suggests that ecosystems dominated by resprouters recover from disturbance more quickly than ecosystems dominated by nonresprouters. The ability of resprouters to avoid mortality and withstand drought, coupled with their ability to recover rapidly, suggests that the impact of increased drought stress in ecosystems dominated by these species may be small. The strategy of resprouting needs to be modelled explicitly to improve estimates of future climate-change impacts on the carbon cycle, but this will require several important knowledge gaps to be filled before resprouting can be properly implemented. © 2014 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2014 New Phytologist Trust.

  6. A study of 2014 record drought in India with CFSv2 model: role of water vapor transport

    KAUST Repository

    Ramakrishna, S. S. V. S.

    2016-09-16

    The Indian summer monsoon season of 2014 was erratic and ended up with a seasonal rainfall deficit of 12 % and a record drought in June. In this study we analyze the moisture transport characteristics for the monsoon season of 2014 using both NCEP FNL reanalysis (FNL) and CFSv2 (CFS) model data. In FNL, in June 2014 there was a large area of divergence of moisture flux. In other months also there was lesser flux. This probably is the cause of 2014 drought. The CFS model overestimated the drought and it reproduces poorly the observed rainfall over central India (65E–95E; 5N–35N). The correlation coefficient (CC) between the IMD observed rainfall and CFS model rainfall is only 0.1 while the CC between rainfall and moisture flux convergence in CFS model is only 0.20 and with FNL data −0.78. This clearly shows that the CFS model has serious difficulty in reproducing the moisture flux convergence and rainfall. We found that the rainfall variations are strongly related to the moisture convergence or divergence. The hypothesis of Krishnamurti et al. (J Atmos Sci 67:3423–3441, 2010) namely the intrusion of west African desert air and the associated low convective available potential energy inhibiting convection and rainfall shows some promise to explain dry spells in Indian summer monsoon. However, the rainfall or lack of it is mainly explained by convergence or divergence of moisture flux. © 2016 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg

  7. Assessing Drought Impacts on Water Storage Changes from New GRACE Mascons Solutions and Regional Groundwater Modeling in the Central Valley of California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scanlon, B. R.; Zhang, Z.; Faunt, C. C.; Save, H.; Wiese, D. N.; Dettinger, M. D.; Longuevergne, L.; Margulis, S. A.

    2016-12-01

    There is increasing interest in the impacts of the current five year drought in California on water resources. Here we use recently released GRACE mascons solutions from Univ. Texas Center for Space Research and NASA Jet Propulsion Lab and output from a regional groundwater model developed by the U.S Geological Survey to assess changes in water storage in response to the current and past droughts. Marked declines in Total Water Storage (TWS) from GRACE are recorded during the current drought from mid-2011 - mid-2015 with slight recovery after this time. TWS declines during the current drought exceed those recorded during the previous 2007 - 2009 drought. Contributors to TWS depletion include snow water storage (very low during 2013 and 2014), reservoir storage (decline mid 2011 - late 2015, with slight recovery in spring 2016), soil moisture storage from land surface models (greater decline during early years of drought and recent slight recovery) and groundwater storage estimated as a residual. There is general consistency between GRACE derived groundwater storage decline during the drought and simulated groundwater storage depletion from the regional groundwater model. Combining remote sensing estimation of TWS trends with global and regional modeling allows estimation of the contribution of different components to TWS anomalies, and assessment of the reliability of the groundwater storage changes.

  8. Bayesian geostatistical modeling of leishmaniasis incidence in Brazil.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dimitrios-Alexios Karagiannis-Voules

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Leishmaniasis is endemic in 98 countries with an estimated 350 million people at risk and approximately 2 million cases annually. Brazil is one of the most severely affected countries. METHODOLOGY: We applied Bayesian geostatistical negative binomial models to analyze reported incidence data of cutaneous and visceral leishmaniasis in Brazil covering a 10-year period (2001-2010. Particular emphasis was placed on spatial and temporal patterns. The models were fitted using integrated nested Laplace approximations to perform fast approximate Bayesian inference. Bayesian variable selection was employed to determine the most important climatic, environmental, and socioeconomic predictors of cutaneous and visceral leishmaniasis. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: For both types of leishmaniasis, precipitation and socioeconomic proxies were identified as important risk factors. The predicted number of cases in 2010 were 30,189 (standard deviation [SD]: 7,676 for cutaneous leishmaniasis and 4,889 (SD: 288 for visceral leishmaniasis. Our risk maps predicted the highest numbers of infected people in the states of Minas Gerais and Pará for visceral and cutaneous leishmaniasis, respectively. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our spatially explicit, high-resolution incidence maps identified priority areas where leishmaniasis control efforts should be targeted with the ultimate goal to reduce disease incidence.

  9. Drought Early Warning and Agro-Meteorological Risk Assessment using Earth Observation Rainfall Datasets and Crop Water Budget Modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tarnavsky, E.

    2016-12-01

    The water resources satisfaction index (WRSI) model is widely used in drought early warning and food security analyses, as well as in agro-meteorological risk management through weather index-based insurance. Key driving data for the model is provided from satellite-based rainfall estimates such as ARC2 and TAMSAT over Africa and CHIRPS globally. We evaluate the performance of these rainfall datasets for detecting onset and cessation of rainfall and estimating crop production conditions for the WRSI model. We also examine the sensitivity of the WRSI model to different satellite-based rainfall products over maize growing regions in Tanzania. Our study considers planting scenarios for short-, medium-, and long-growing cycle maize, and we apply these for 'regular' and drought-resistant maize, as well as with two different methods for defining the start of season (SOS). Simulated maize production estimates are compared against available reported production figures at the national and sub-national (province) levels. Strengths and weaknesses of the driving rainfall data, insights into the role of the SOS definition method, and phenology-based crop yield coefficient and crop yield reduction functions are discussed in the context of space-time drought characteristics. We propose a way forward for selecting skilled rainfall datasets and discuss their implication for crop production monitoring and the design and structure of weather index-based insurance products as risk transfer mechanisms implemented across scales for smallholder farmers to national programmes.

  10. Global sensitivity analysis of a local water balance model predicting evaporation, water yield and drought

    Science.gov (United States)

    Speich, Matthias; Zappa, Massimiliano; Lischke, Heike

    2017-04-01

    Evaporation and transpiration affect both catchment water yield and the growing conditions for vegetation. They are driven by climate, but also depend on vegetation, soil and land surface properties. In hydrological and land surface models, these properties may be included as constant parameters, or as state variables. Often, little is known about the effect of these variables on model outputs. In the present study, the effect of surface properties on evaporation was assessed in a global sensitivity analysis. To this effect, we developed a simple local water balance model combining state-of-the-art process formulations for evaporation, transpiration and soil water balance. The model is vertically one-dimensional, and the relative simplicity of its process formulations makes it suitable for integration in a spatially distributed model at regional scale. The main model outputs are annual total evaporation (TE, i.e. the sum of transpiration, soil evaporation and interception), and a drought index (DI), which is based on the ratio of actual and potential transpiration. This index represents the growing conditions for forest trees. The sensitivity analysis was conducted in two steps. First, a screening analysis was applied to identify unimportant parameters out of an initial set of 19 parameters. In a second step, a statistical meta-model was applied to a sample of 800 model runs, in which the values of the important parameters were varied. Parameter effect and interactions were analyzed with effects plots. The model was driven with forcing data from ten meteorological stations in Switzerland, representing a wide range of precipitation regimes across a strong temperature gradient. Of the 19 original parameters, eight were identified as important in the screening analysis. Both steps highlighted the importance of Plant Available Water Capacity (AWC) and Leaf Area Index (LAI). However, their effect varies greatly across stations. For example, while a transition from a

  11. Modeling the hepatitis A epidemiological transition in Brazil and Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Effelterre, Thierry; Guignard, Adrienne; Marano, Cinzia; Rojas, Rosalba; Jacobsen, Kathryn H.

    2017-01-01

    ABSTRACT Background: Many low- to middle-income countries have completed or are in the process of transitioning from high or intermediate to low endemicity for hepatitis A virus (HAV). Because the risk of severe hepatitis A disease increases with age at infection, decreased incidence that leaves older children and adults susceptible to HAV infection may actually increase the population-level burden of disease from HAV. Mathematical models can be helpful for projecting future epidemiological profiles for HAV. Methods: An age-specific deterministic, dynamic compartmental transmission model with stratification by setting (rural versus urban) was calibrated with country-specific data on demography, urbanization, and seroprevalence of anti-HAV antibodies. HAV transmission was modeled as a function of setting-specific access to safe water. The model was then used to project various HAV-related epidemiological outcomes in Brazil and in Mexico from 1950 to 2050. Results: The projected epidemiological outcomes were qualitatively similar in the 2 countries. The age at the midpoint of population immunity (AMPI) increased considerably and the mean age of symptomatic HAV cases shifted from childhood to early adulthood. The projected overall incidence rate of HAV infections decreased by about two thirds as safe water access improved. However, the incidence rate of symptomatic HAV infections remained roughly the same over the projection period. The incidence rates of HAV infections (all and symptomatic alone) were projected to become similar in rural and urban settings in the next decades. Conclusion: This model featuring population age structure, urbanization and access to safe water as key contributors to the epidemiological transition for HAV was previously validated with data from Thailand and fits equally well with data from Latin American countries. Assuming no introduction of a vaccination program over the projection period, both Brazil and Mexico were projected to

  12. Modeling the hepatitis A epidemiological transition in Brazil and Mexico.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Effelterre, Thierry; Guignard, Adrienne; Marano, Cinzia; Rojas, Rosalba; Jacobsen, Kathryn H

    2017-08-03

    Many low- to middle-income countries have completed or are in the process of transitioning from high or intermediate to low endemicity for hepatitis A virus (HAV). Because the risk of severe hepatitis A disease increases with age at infection, decreased incidence that leaves older children and adults susceptible to HAV infection may actually increase the population-level burden of disease from HAV. Mathematical models can be helpful for projecting future epidemiological profiles for HAV. An age-specific deterministic, dynamic compartmental transmission model with stratification by setting (rural versus urban) was calibrated with country-specific data on demography, urbanization, and seroprevalence of anti-HAV antibodies. HAV transmission was modeled as a function of setting-specific access to safe water. The model was then used to project various HAV-related epidemiological outcomes in Brazil and in Mexico from 1950 to 2050. The projected epidemiological outcomes were qualitatively similar in the 2 countries. The age at the midpoint of population immunity (AMPI) increased considerably and the mean age of symptomatic HAV cases shifted from childhood to early adulthood. The projected overall incidence rate of HAV infections decreased by about two thirds as safe water access improved. However, the incidence rate of symptomatic HAV infections remained roughly the same over the projection period. The incidence rates of HAV infections (all and symptomatic alone) were projected to become similar in rural and urban settings in the next decades. This model featuring population age structure, urbanization and access to safe water as key contributors to the epidemiological transition for HAV was previously validated with data from Thailand and fits equally well with data from Latin American countries. Assuming no introduction of a vaccination program over the projection period, both Brazil and Mexico were projected to experience a continued decrease in HAV incidence rates

  13. Development of a comprehensive watershed model applied to study stream yield under drought conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perkins, S.P.; Sophocleous, M.

    1999-01-01

    We developed a model code to simulate a watershed's hydrology and the hydraulic response of an interconnected stream-aquifer system, and applied the model code to the Lower Republican River Basin in Kansas. The model code links two well-known computer programs: MODFLOW (modular 3-D flow model), which simulates ground water flow and stream-aquifer interaction; and SWAT (soil water assessment tool), a soil water budget simulator for an agricultural watershed. SWAT represents a basin as a collection of subbasins in terms of soil, land use, and weather data, and simulates each subbasin on a daily basis to determine runoff, percolation, evaporation, irrigation, pond seepages and crop growth. Because SWAT applies a lumped hydrologic model to each subbasin, spatial heterogeneities with respect to factors such as soil type and land use are not resolved geographically, but can instead be represented statistically. For the Republican River Basin model, each combination of six soil types and three land uses, referred to as a hydrologic response unit (HRU), was simulated with a separate execution of SWAT. A spatially weighted average was then taken over these results for each hydrologic flux and time step by a separate program, SWBAVG. We wrote a package for MOD-FLOW to associate each subbasin with a subset of aquifer grid cells and stream reaches, and to distribute the hydrologic fluxes given for each subbasin by SWAT and SWBAVG over MODFLOW's stream-aquifer grid to represent tributary flow, surface and ground water diversions, ground water recharge, and evapotranspiration from ground water. The Lower Republican River Basin model was calibrated with respect to measured ground water levels, streamflow, and reported irrigation water use. The model was used to examine the relative contributions of stream yield components and the impact on stream yield and base flow of administrative measures to restrict irrigation water use during droughts. Model results indicate that tributary

  14. Virtual Plants Need Water Too: Functional-Structural Root System Models in the Context of Drought Tolerance Breeding

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adama Ndour

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Developing a sustainable agricultural model is one of the great challenges of the coming years. The agricultural practices inherited from the Green Revolution of the 1960s show their limits today, and new paradigms need to be explored to counter rising issues such as the multiplication of climate-change related drought episodes. Two such new paradigms are the use of functional-structural plant models to complement and rationalize breeding approaches and a renewed focus on root systems as untapped sources of plant amelioration. Since the late 1980s, numerous functional and structural models of root systems were developed and used to investigate the properties of root systems in soil or lab-conditions. In this review, we focus on the conception and use of such root models in the broader context of research on root-driven drought tolerance, on the basis of root system architecture (RSA phenotyping. Such models result from the integration of architectural, physiological and environmental data. Here, we consider the different phenotyping techniques allowing for root architectural and physiological study and their limits. We discuss how QTL and breeding studies support the manipulation of RSA as a way to improve drought resistance. We then go over the integration of the generated data within architectural models, how those architectural models can be coupled with functional hydraulic models, and how functional parameters can be measured to feed those models. We then consider the assessment and validation of those hydraulic models through confrontation of simulations to experimentations. Finally, we discuss the up and coming challenges facing root systems functional-structural modeling approaches in the context of breeding.

  15. Virtual Plants Need Water Too: Functional-Structural Root System Models in the Context of Drought Tolerance Breeding

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ndour, Adama; Vadez, Vincent; Pradal, Christophe; Lucas, Mikaël

    2017-01-01

    Developing a sustainable agricultural model is one of the great challenges of the coming years. The agricultural practices inherited from the Green Revolution of the 1960s show their limits today, and new paradigms need to be explored to counter rising issues such as the multiplication of climate-change related drought episodes. Two such new paradigms are the use of functional-structural plant models to complement and rationalize breeding approaches and a renewed focus on root systems as untapped sources of plant amelioration. Since the late 1980s, numerous functional and structural models of root systems were developed and used to investigate the properties of root systems in soil or lab-conditions. In this review, we focus on the conception and use of such root models in the broader context of research on root-driven drought tolerance, on the basis of root system architecture (RSA) phenotyping. Such models result from the integration of architectural, physiological and environmental data. Here, we consider the different phenotyping techniques allowing for root architectural and physiological study and their limits. We discuss how QTL and breeding studies support the manipulation of RSA as a way to improve drought resistance. We then go over the integration of the generated data within architectural models, how those architectural models can be coupled with functional hydraulic models, and how functional parameters can be measured to feed those models. We then consider the assessment and validation of those hydraulic models through confrontation of simulations to experimentations. Finally, we discuss the up and coming challenges facing root systems functional-structural modeling approaches in the context of breeding. PMID:29018456

  16. How climate seasonality modifies drought duration and deficit

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Loon, A.F.; Tijdeman, E.; Wanders, N.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/364253940; Lanen, H.A.J.; Teuling, A.J.; Uijlenhoet, R.

    2014-01-01

    Drought propagation through the terrestrial hydrological cycle is associated with a change in drought characteristics (duration and deficit), moving from precipitation via soil moisture to discharge. Here we investigate climate controls on drought propagation with a modeling experiment in 1271

  17. Analysis of Current and Future SPEI Droughts in the La Plata Basin Based on Results from the Regional Eta Climate Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alvaro Sordo-Ward

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available We identified and analysed droughts in the La Plata Basin (divided into seven sub-basins for the current period (1961–2005 and estimated their expected evolution under future climate projections for the periods 2011–2040, 2041–2070, and 2071–2099. Future climate projections were analysed from results of the Eta Regional Climate Model (grid resolution of approximately 10 km forced by the global climate model HadGEM2-ES over the La Plata basin, and considering a RCP4.5 emission scenario. Within each sub-basin, we particularly focused our drought analyses on croplands and grasslands, due to their economic relevance. The three-month Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI3 was used for drought identification and characterization. Droughts were evaluated in terms of time (percentage of time from the total length of each climate scenario, space (percentage of total area, and severity (SPEI3 values of cells characterized by cropland and grassland for each sub-basin and climate scenario. Drought-severity–area–frequency curves were developed to quantitatively relate the frequency distribution of drought occurrence to drought severity and area. For the period 2011–2040, droughts dominate the northern sub-basins, whereas alternating wet and short dry periods dominate the southern sub-basins. Wet climate spread from south to north within the La Plata Basin as more distant future scenarios were analysed, due to both a greater number of wet periods and fewer droughts. The area of each sub-basin affected by drought in all climate scenarios was highly varied temporally and spatially. The likelihood of the occurrence of droughts differed significantly between the studied cover types in the Lower Paraguay sub-basin, being higher for cropland than for grassland. Mainly in the Upper Paraguay and in the Upper Paraná basins the climate projections for all scenarios showed an increase of moderate and severe droughts over large regions

  18. Towards developing drought impact functions to advance drought monitoring and early warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bachmair, Sophie; Stahl, Kerstin; Hannaford, Jamie; Svoboda, Mark

    2015-04-01

    , damage, or loss due to drought, and (3) to test different statistical models to link drought intensity with drought impact information to derive meaningful thresholds. While the focus regarding drought impact variables lies on text-based impact reports from the European Drought Impact report Inventory (EDII) and the US Drought Impact Reporter (DIR), the information gain through exploiting other variables such as agricultural yield statistics and remotely sensed vegetation indices is explored. First results reveal interesting insights into the complex relationship between drought indicators and impacts and highlight differences among drought impact variables and geographies. Although a simple intensity threshold evoking specific drought impacts cannot be identified, developing drought impact functions helps to elucidate how drought conditions relate to ecological or socioeconomic impacts. Such knowledge may provide guidance for inferring meaningful triggers for drought M&EW and could have potential for a wide range of drought management applications (for example, building drought scenarios for testing the resilience of drought plans or water supply systems).

  19. Assessment of 21st century drought conditions at Shasta Dam based on dynamically projected water supply conditions by a regional climate model coupled with a physically-based hydrology model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trinh, T; Ishida, K; Kavvas, M L; Ercan, A; Carr, K

    2017-05-15

    Along with socioeconomic developments, and population increase, natural disasters around the world have recently increased the awareness of harmful impacts they cause. Among natural disasters, drought is of great interest to scientists due to the extraordinary diversity of their severity and duration. Motivated by the development of a potential approach to investigate future possible droughts in a probabilistic framework based on climate change projections, a methodology to consider thirteen future climate projections based on four emission scenarios to characterize droughts is presented. The proposed approach uses a regional climate model coupled with a physically-based hydrology model (Watershed Environmental Hydrology Hydro-Climate Model; WEHY-HCM) to generate thirteen equally likely future water supply projections. The water supply projections were compared to the current water demand for the detection of drought events and estimation of drought properties. The procedure was applied to Shasta Dam watershed to analyze drought conditions at the watershed outlet, Shasta Dam. The results suggest an increasing water scarcity at Shasta Dam with more severe and longer future drought events in some future scenarios. An important advantage of the proposed approach to the probabilistic analysis of future droughts is that it provides the drought properties of the 100-year and 200-year return periods without resorting to any extrapolation of the frequency curve. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  20. Hydrogeological characterisation of groundwater over Brazil using remotely sensed and model products.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Kexiang; Awange, Joseph L; Khandu; Forootan, Ehsan; Goncalves, Rodrigo Mikosz; Fleming, Kevin

    2017-12-01

    For Brazil, a country frequented by droughts and whose rural inhabitants largely depend on groundwater, reliance on isotope for its monitoring, though accurate, is expensive and limited in spatial coverage. We exploit total water storage (TWS) derived from Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites to analyse spatial-temporal groundwater changes in relation to geological characteristics. Large-scale groundwater changes are estimated using GRACE-derived TWS and altimetry observations in addition to GLDAS and WGHM model outputs. Additionally, TRMM precipitation data are used to infer impacts of climate variability on groundwater fluctuations. The results indicate that climate variability mainly controls groundwater change trends while geological properties control change rates, spatial distribution, and storage capacity. Granular rocks in the Amazon and Guarani aquifers are found to influence larger storage capability, higher permeability (>10-4 m/s) and faster response to rainfall (1 to 3months' lag) compared to fractured rocks (permeability 3months) found only in Bambui aquifer. Groundwater in the Amazon region is found to rely not only on precipitation but also on inflow from other regions. Areas beyond the northern and southern Amazon basin depict a 'dam-like' pattern, with high inflow and slow outflow rates (recharge slope > 0.75, discharge slope 30cm). Amazon's groundwater declined between 2002 and 2008 due to below normal precipitation (wet seasons lasted for about 36 to 47% of the time). The Guarani aquifer and adjacent coastline areas rank second in terms of storage capacity, while the northeast and southeast coastal regions indicate the smallest storage capacity due to lack of rainfall (annual average is rainfall <10cm). Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  1. Elusive drought: uncertainty in observed trends and short- and long-term CMIP5 projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orlowsky, B.; Seneviratne, S. I.

    2013-05-01

    Recent years have seen a number of severe droughts in different regions around the world, causing agricultural and economic losses, famines and migration. Despite their devastating consequences, the Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI) of these events lies within the general range of observation-based SPI time series and simulations from the 5th phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). In terms of magnitude, regional trends of SPI over the last decades remain mostly inconclusive in observation-based datasets and CMIP5 simulations, but Soil Moisture Anomalies (SMAs) in CMIP5 simulations hint at increased drought in a few regions (e.g., the Mediterranean, Central America/Mexico, the Amazon, North-East Brazil and South Africa). Also for the future, projections of changes in the magnitude of meteorological (SPI) and soil moisture (SMA) drought in CMIP5 display large spreads over all time frames, generally impeding trend detection. However, projections of changes in the frequencies of future drought events display more robust signal-to-noise ratios, with detectable trends towards more frequent drought before the end of the 21st century in the Mediterranean, South Africa and Central America/Mexico. Other present-day hot spots are projected to become less drought-prone, or display non-significant changes in drought occurrence. A separation of different sources of uncertainty in projections of meteorological and soil moisture drought reveals that for the near term, internal climate variability is the dominant source, while the formulation of Global Climate Models (GCMs) generally becomes the dominant source of spread by the end of the 21st century, especially for soil moisture drought. In comparison, the uncertainty from Green-House Gas (GHG) concentrations scenarios is negligible for most regions. These findings stand in contrast to respective analyses for a heat wave index, for which GHG concentrations scenarios constitute the main source of

  2. The bioeconomic implications of various drought management ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Keywords: Drought management strategies; Herd structures; KwaZulu/Natal; Labour costs; Net present values; Simulation modelling; drought; drought management; management strategy; cattle; semi-arid; savanna; south africa; net present value; simulation model; domestic stock; economics. African Journal of Range ...

  3. Modeling of coastal water contamination in Fortaleza (Northeastern Brazil).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pereira, S P; Rosman, P C C; Alvarez, C; Schetini, C A F; Souza, R O; Vieira, R H S F

    2015-01-01

    An important tool in environmental management projects and studies due to the complexity of environmental systems, environmental modeling makes it possible to integrate many variables and processes, thereby providing a dynamic view of systems. In this study the bacteriological quality of the coastal waters of Fortaleza (a state capital in Northeastern Brazil) was modeled considering multiple contamination sources. Using the software SisBaHiA, the dispersion of thermotolerant coliforms and Escherichia coli from three sources of contamination (local rivers, storm drains and submarine outfall) was analyzed. The models took into account variations in bacterial decay due to solar radiation and other environmental factors. Fecal pollution discharged from rivers and storm drains is transported westward by coastal currents, contaminating strips of beach water to the left of each storm drain or river. Exception to this condition only occurs on beaches protected by the breakwater of the harbor, where counterclockwise vortexes reverse this behavior. The results of the models were consistent with field measurements taken during the dry and the rainy season. Our results show that the submarine outfall plume was over 2 km from the nearest beach. The storm drains and the Maceió stream are the main factors responsible for the poor water quality on the waterfront of Fortaleza. The depollution of these sources would generate considerable social, health and economic gains for the region.

  4. Non-linear effects of drought under shade: reconciling physiological and ecological models in plant communities

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Holmgren, M.; Gomez-Aparicio, L.; Quero, J.L.; Valladares, F.

    2012-01-01

    The combined effects of shade and drought on plant performance and the implications for species interactions are highly debated in plant ecology. Empirical evidence for positive and negative effects of shade on the performance of plants under dry conditions supports two contrasting theoretical

  5. can tepary bean be a model for improvement of drought resistance ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Prof. Adipala Ekwamu

    Common bean (Phaseolus vulgaris L.) is the most important grain legume for human consumption and drought stress affects over 60% of dry bean production worldwide. Field studies were conducted over two seasons at. Centro Internacional de Agricultura Tropical (CIAT), Palmira, Colombia to (i) evaluate phenotypic ...

  6. Can tepary bean be a model for improvement of drought resistance ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Common bean (Phaseolus vulgaris L.) is the most important grain legume for human consumption and drought stress affects over 60% of dry bean production worldwide. Field studies were conducted over two seasons at Centro Internacional de Agricultura Tropical (CIAT), Palmira, Colombia to (i) evaluate phenotypic ...

  7. Improving representation of drought stress and fire emissions in climate carbon models: measurements and modeling with a focus on the western USA

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ehleringer, James [Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT (United States). Dept. of Biology; Randerson, James [Univ. of California, Irvine, CA (United States); Lai, Chun-Ta [San Diego State Univ., CA (United States)

    2016-02-16

    The objective of the proposed research was to collect data and develop models to improve our understanding of the role of drought and fire impacts on the terrestrial carbon cycle in the western US, including impacts associated with urban systems as they impacted regional carbon cycles. Using data we collected and a synthesis of other measurements, we developed new ways (a) to evaluate the representation of drought stress and fire emissions in the Community Land Model, (b) to model net ecosystem exchange combining ground level atmospheric observations with boundary layer theory, (c) to model upstream impacts of fire and fossil fuel emissions on atmospheric carbon dioxide observations, and (d) to model carbon dioxide observations within urban systems and at the urban-wildland interfaces of forest ecosystems.

  8. Stem hydraulic capacitance decreases with drought stress: implications for modelling tree hydraulics in the Mediterranean oak Quercus ilex.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salomón, Roberto L; Limousin, Jean-Marc; Ourcival, Jean-Marc; Rodríguez-Calcerrada, Jesús; Steppe, Kathy

    2017-08-01

    Hydraulic modelling is a primary tool to predict plant performance in future drier scenarios. However, as most tree models are validated under non-stress conditions, they may fail when water becomes limiting. To simulate tree hydraulic functioning under moist and dry conditions, the current version of a water flow and storage mechanistic model was further developed by implementing equations that describe variation in xylem hydraulic resistance (R X ) and stem hydraulic capacitance (C S ) with predawn water potential (Ψ PD ). The model was applied in a Mediterranean forest experiencing intense summer drought, where six Quercus ilex trees were instrumented to monitor stem diameter variations and sap flow, concurrently with measurements of predawn and midday leaf water potential. Best model performance was observed when C S was allowed to decrease with decreasing Ψ PD . Hydraulic capacitance decreased from 62 to 25 kg m -3  MPa -1 across the growing season. In parallel, tree transpiration decreased to a greater extent than the capacitive water release and the contribution of stored water to transpiration increased from 2.0 to 5.1%. Our results demonstrate the importance of stored water and seasonality in C S for tree hydraulic functioning, and they suggest that C S should be considered to predict the drought response of trees with models. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  9. Comparison of rainfall based SPI drought indices with SMDI and ETDI indices derived from a soil water budget model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Houcine, A.; Bargaoui, Z.

    2012-04-01

    Modelling soil water budget is a key issue for assessing drought awareness indices based on soil moisture estimation. The aim of the study is to compare drought indices based on rainfall time series to those based on soil water content time series and evapotranspiration time series. To this end, a vertically averaged water budget over the root zone is implemented to assist the estimation of evapotranspiration flux. A daily time step is adopted to run the water budget model for a lumped watershed of 250 km2 under arid climate where recorded meteorological and hydrological data are available for a ten year period. The water balance including 7 parameters is computed including evapotranspiration, runoff and leakage. Soil properties related parameters are derived according to pedo transfer functions while two remaining parameters are considered as data driven and are subject to calibration. The model is calibrated using daily hydro meteorological data (solar radiation, air temperature, air humidity, mean areal rainfall) as well as daily runoff records and also average annual (or regional) evapotranspiration. The latter is estimated using an empirical sub-model. A set of acceptable solutions is identified according to the values of the Nash coefficients for annual and decadal runoffs as well as the relative bias for average annual evapotranspiration. Using these acceptable solutions several drought indices are computed: SPI (standard precipitation index), SMDI (soil moisture deficit index) and ETDI (evapotranspiration deficit index). While SPI indicators are based only on monthly precipitation time series, SMDI are based on weekly mean soil water content as computed by the hydrological model. On the other hand ETDI indices are based on weekly mean potential and actual evapotranspirations as estimated by the meteorological and hydrological models. For SPI evaluation various time scales are considered from one to twelve months (SPI1, SPI3, SPI6, SPI9 and SPI12). For all

  10. A comprehensively quantitative method of evaluating the impact of drought on crop yield using daily multi-scale SPEI and crop growth process model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Qianfeng; Wu, Jianjun; Li, Xiaohan; Zhou, Hongkui; Yang, Jianhua; Geng, Guangpo; An, Xueli; Liu, Leizhen; Tang, Zhenghong

    2017-04-01

    The quantitative evaluation of the impact of drought on crop yield is one of the most important aspects in agricultural water resource management. To assess the impact of drought on wheat yield, the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) crop growth model and daily Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), which is based on daily meteorological data, are adopted in the Huang Huai Hai Plain. The winter wheat crop yields are estimated at 28 stations, after calibrating the cultivar coefficients based on the experimental site data, and SPEI data was taken 11 times across the growth season from 1981 to 2010. The relationship between estimated yield and multi-scale SPEI were analyzed. The optimum time scale SPEI to monitor drought during the crop growth period was determined. The reference yield was determined by averaging the yields from numerous non-drought years. From this data, we propose a comprehensive quantitative method which can be used to predict the impact of drought on wheat yields by combining the daily multi-scale SPEI and crop growth process model. This method was tested in the Huang Huai Hai Plain. The results suggested that estimation of calibrated EPIC was a good predictor of crop yield in the Huang Huai Hai Plain, with lower RMSE (15.4 %) between estimated yield and observed yield at six agrometeorological stations. The soil moisture at planting time was affected by the precipitation and evapotranspiration during the previous 90 days (about 3 months) in the Huang Huai Hai Plain. SPEIG90 was adopted as the optimum time scale SPEI to identify the drought and non-drought years, and identified a drought year in 2000. The water deficit in the year 2000 was significant, and the rate of crop yield reduction did not completely correspond with the volume of water deficit. Our proposed comprehensive method which quantitatively evaluates the impact of drought on crop yield is reliable. The results of this study further our

  11. A comprehensively quantitative method of evaluating the impact of drought on crop yield using daily multi-scale SPEI and crop growth process model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Qianfeng; Wu, Jianjun; Li, Xiaohan; Zhou, Hongkui; Yang, Jianhua; Geng, Guangpo; An, Xueli; Liu, Leizhen; Tang, Zhenghong

    2017-04-01

    The quantitative evaluation of the impact of drought on crop yield is one of the most important aspects in agricultural water resource management. To assess the impact of drought on wheat yield, the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) crop growth model and daily Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), which is based on daily meteorological data, are adopted in the Huang Huai Hai Plain. The winter wheat crop yields are estimated at 28 stations, after calibrating the cultivar coefficients based on the experimental site data, and SPEI data was taken 11 times across the growth season from 1981 to 2010. The relationship between estimated yield and multi-scale SPEI were analyzed. The optimum time scale SPEI to monitor drought during the crop growth period was determined. The reference yield was determined by averaging the yields from numerous non-drought years. From this data, we propose a comprehensive quantitative method which can be used to predict the impact of drought on wheat yields by combining the daily multi-scale SPEI and crop growth process model. This method was tested in the Huang Huai Hai Plain. The results suggested that estimation of calibrated EPIC was a good predictor of crop yield in the Huang Huai Hai Plain, with lower RMSE (15.4 %) between estimated yield and observed yield at six agrometeorological stations. The soil moisture at planting time was affected by the precipitation and evapotranspiration during the previous 90 days (about 3 months) in the Huang Huai Hai Plain. SPEIG90 was adopted as the optimum time scale SPEI to identify the drought and non-drought years, and identified a drought year in 2000. The water deficit in the year 2000 was significant, and the rate of crop yield reduction did not completely correspond with the volume of water deficit. Our proposed comprehensive method which quantitatively evaluates the impact of drought on crop yield is reliable. The results of this study further our understanding

  12. ASSESSMENT OF EARLY SEASON AGRICULTURAL DROUGHT THROUGH LAND SURFACE WATER INDEX (LSWI AND SOIL WATER BALANCE MODEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Chandrasekar

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available An attempt was made to address the early season agriculture drought, by monitoring the surface soil wetness during 2010 cropping seasons in the states of Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu. Short Wave Infrared (SWIR based Land Surface Water Index (LSWI and Soil Water Balance (SWB model using inputs from remote sensing and ancillary data were used to monitor early season agriculture drought. During the crop season, investigation was made on LSWI characteristics and its response to the rainfall. It was observed that the Rate of Increase (RoI of LSWI was the highest during the fortnights when the onset of monsoon occurred. The study showed that LSWI is sensitive to the onset of monsoon and initiation of cropping season. The second part of this study attempted to develop a simple book keeping – bucket type – water tight soil water balance model to derive the top 30cm profile soil moisture using climatic, soil and crop parameters as the basic inputs. Soil moisture derived from the model was used to compute the Area Conducive for Sowing (ACS during the sowing window of the cropping season. The soil moisture was validated spatially and temporally with the ground observed soil moisture values. The ACS was compared with the RoI of LSWI. The results showed that the RoI was high during the sowing window whenever the ACS was greater than 50% of the district area. The observation was consistent in all the districts of the two states. Thus the analysis revealed the potential of LSWI for early season agricultural drought management.

  13. Assessing the link between Atlantic Niño 1 and drought over West Africa using CORDEX regional climate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adeniyi, Mojisola Oluwayemisi; Dilau, Kabiru Alabi

    2016-12-01

    The skill of Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) models (ARPEGE, CCLM, HIRHAM, RACMO, REMO, PRECIS, RegCM3, RCA, WRF and CRCM) in simulating the climate (precipitation, temperature and drought) of West Africa is determined using a process-based metric. This is done by comparing the CORDEX models' simulated and observed correlation coefficients between Atlantic Niño Index 1 (ATLN1) and the climate over West Africa. Strong positive correlation is observed between ATLN1 and the climate parameters at the Guinea Coast (GC). The Atlantic Ocean has Niño behaviours through the ATLN indices which influence the climate of the tropics. Drought has distinct dipole structure of correlation with ATLN1 (negative at the Sahel); precipitation does not have distinct dipole structure of correlation, while temperature has almost a monopole correlation structure with ATLN1 over West Africa. The magnitude of the correlation increases with closeness to the equatorial eastern Atlantic. Correlations between ATLN1 and temperature are mostly stronger than those between ATLN1 and precipitation over the region. Most models have good performance over the GC, but ARPEGE has the highest skill at GC. The PRECIS is the most skilful over Savannah and RCA over Sahel. These models can be used to downscale the projected climate at the region of their highest skill.

  14. Gully erosion in the Caatinga biome, Brazil: measurement and stochastic modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lima Alencar, Pedro Henrique; de Araújo, José Carlos; Nonato Távora Costa, Raimundo

    2017-04-01

    In contrast with inter-rill erosion, which takes a long time to modify the terrain form, gully erosion can fast and severely change the landscape. In the Brazilian semiarid region, a one-million km2 area that coincides with the Caatinga biome, inter-rill erosion prevails due to the silty shallow soils. However, gully erosion does occur in the Caatinga, with temporal increasing severity. This source of sediment impacts the existing dense network of small dams, generating significant deleterious effects, such as water availability reduction in a drought-prone region. This study focuses on the Madalena basin (124 km2, state of Ceará, Brazil), a land-reform settlement with 20 inhabitants per km2, whose main economic activities are agriculture (especially Zea mays), livestock and fishing. In the catchment area, where there are 12 dams (with storage capacity ranging from 6.104 to 2.107 m3), gully erosion has become an issue due to its increasing occurrence. Eight gully-erosion sites have been identified in the basin, but most of them have not yet reached great dimensions (depth and/or width), nor interacted with groundwater, being therefore classified as ephemeral gullies. We selected the three most relevant sites and measured the topography of the eroded channels, as well as the neighboring terrain relief, using accurate total stations and unmanned aerial vehicle. The data was processed with the help of software, such as DataGeosis (Office 7.5) and Surfer (11.0), providing information on gully erosion in terms of (μ ± σ): projection area (317±165 m2), eroded mass (61±36 Mg) and volume (42±25 m3), length (38±6 m), maximum depth (0.58±0.13 m) and maximum width (6.00±2.35 m). The measured data are then compared with those provided by the Foster and Lane model (1986). The model generated results with considerable scatter. This is possibly due to uncertainties in the field parameters, which are neglected in the deterministic approach of most physically-based models

  15. Early responses of mature Arabidopsis thaliana plants to reduced water potential in the agar-based polyethylene glycol infusion drought model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frolov, Andrej; Bilova, Tatiana; Paudel, Gagan; Berger, Robert; Balcke, Gerd U; Birkemeyer, Claudia; Wessjohann, Ludger A

    2017-01-01

    Drought is one of the most important environmental stressors resulting in increasing losses of crop plant productivity all over the world. Therefore, development of new approaches to increase the stress tolerance of crop plants is strongly desired. This requires precise and adequate modeling of drought stress. As this type of stress manifests itself as a steady decrease in the substrate water potential (ψw), agar plates infused with polyethylene glycol (PEG) are the perfect experimental tool: they are easy in preparation and provide a constantly reduced ψw, which is not possible in soil models. However, currently, this model is applicable only to seedlings and cannot be used for evaluation of stress responses in mature plants, which are obviously the most appropriate objects for drought tolerance research. To overcome this limitation, here we introduce a PEG-based agar infusion model suitable for 6-8-week-old A. thaliana plants, and characterize, to the best of our knowledge for the first time, the early drought stress responses of adult plants grown on PEG-infused agar. We describe essential alterations in the primary metabolome (sugars and related compounds, amino acids and polyamines) accompanied by qualitative and quantitative changes in protein patterns: up to 87 unique stress-related proteins were annotated under drought stress conditions, whereas further 84 proteins showed a change in abundance. The obtained proteome patterns differed slightly from those reported for seedlings and soil-based models. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

  16. General mechanisms of drought response and their application in drought resistance improvement in plants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fang, Yujie; Xiong, Lizhong

    2015-02-01

    Plants often encounter unfavorable environmental conditions because of their sessile lifestyle. These adverse factors greatly affect the geographic distribution of plants, as well as their growth and productivity. Drought stress is one of the premier limitations to global agricultural production due to the complexity of the water-limiting environment and changing climate. Plants have evolved a series of mechanisms at the morphological, physiological, biochemical, cellular, and molecular levels to overcome water deficit or drought stress conditions. The drought resistance of plants can be divided into four basic types-drought avoidance, drought tolerance, drought escape, and drought recovery. Various drought-related traits, including root traits, leaf traits, osmotic adjustment capabilities, water potential, ABA content, and stability of the cell membrane, have been used as indicators to evaluate the drought resistance of plants. In the last decade, scientists have investigated the genetic and molecular mechanisms of drought resistance to enhance the drought resistance of various crops, and significant progress has been made with regard to drought avoidance and drought tolerance. With increasing knowledge to comprehensively decipher the complicated mechanisms of drought resistance in model plants, it still remains an enormous challenge to develop water-saving and drought-resistant crops to cope with the water shortage and increasing demand for food production in the future.

  17. Spatio-temporal Analysis of Hydrological Drought at Catchment Scale Using a Spatially-distributed Hydrological Model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mercado, Vitali Diaz; Perez, Gerald Corzo; Solomatine, Dimitri; Lanen, Van Henny A.J.

    2016-01-01

    Lately, drought is more intense and much more severe around the globe, causing more deaths than other hazards in the past century. Drought can be characterized quantitatively for its spatial extent, intensity and duration by using drought indicators. Several indicators have been developed in

  18. Improved Analyses and Forecasts of Snowpack, Runoff and Drought through Remote Sensing and Land Surface Modeling in Southeastern Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matthews, D.; Brilly, M.; Gregoric, G.; Polajnar, J.; Kobold, M.; Zagar, M.; Knoblauch, H.; Staudinger, M.; Mecklenburg, S.; Lehning, M.; Schweizer, J.; Balint, G.; Cacic, I.; Houser, P.; Pozzi, W.

    2008-12-01

    European hydrometeorological services and research centers are faced with increasing challenges from extremes of weather and climate that require significant investments in new technology and better utilization of existing human and natural resources to provide improved forecasts. Major advances in remote sensing, observation networks, data assimilation, numerical modeling, and communications continue to improve our ability to disseminate information to decision-makers and stake holders. This paper identifies gaps in current technologies, key research and decision-maker teams, and recommends means for moving forward through focused applied research and integration of results into decision support tools. This paper reports on the WaterNet - NASA Water Cycle Solutions Network contacts in Europe and summarizes progress in improving water cycle related decision-making using NASA research results. Products from the Hydrologic Sciences Branch, Goddard Space Flight Center, NASA, Land Information System's (LIS) Land Surface Models (LSM), the SPoRT, CREW , and European Space Agency (ESA), and Joint Research Center's (JRC) natural hazards products, and Swiss Federal Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research's (SLF), and others are discussed. They will be used in collaboration with the ESA and the European Commission to provide solutions for improved prediction of water supplies and stream flow, and droughts and floods, and snow avalanches in the major river basins serviced by EARS, ZAMG, SLF, Vituki Consult, and other European forecast centers. This region of Europe includes the Alps and Carpathian Mountains and is an area of extreme topography with abrupt 2000 m mountains adjacent to the Adriatic Sea. These extremes result in the highest precipitation ( > 5000 mm) in Europe in Montenegro and low precipitation of 300-400 mm at the mouth of the Danube during droughts. The current flood and drought forecasting systems have a spatial resolution of 9 km, which is currently being

  19. Probabilistic drought intensification forecasts using temporal patterns of satellite-derived drought indicators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Sumin; Im, Jungho; Park, Seonyeong

    2016-04-01

    A drought occurs when the condition of below-average precipitation in a region continues, resulting in prolonged water deficiency. A drought can last for weeks, months or even years, so can have a great influence on various ecosystems including human society. In order to effectively reduce agricultural and economic damage caused by droughts, drought monitoring and forecasts are crucial. Drought forecast research is typically conducted using in situ observations (or derived indices such as Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI)) and physical models. Recently, satellite remote sensing has been used for short term drought forecasts in combination with physical models. In this research, drought intensification was predicted using satellite-derived drought indices such as Normalized Difference Drought Index (NDDI), Normalized Multi-band Drought Index (NMDI), and Scaled Drought Condition Index (SDCI) generated from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) products over the Korean Peninsula. Time series of each drought index at the 8 day interval was investigated to identify drought intensification patterns. Drought condition at the previous time step (i.e., 8 days before) and change in drought conditions between two previous time steps (e.g., between 16 days and 8 days before the time step to forecast) Results show that among three drought indices, SDCI provided the best performance to predict drought intensification compared to NDDI and NMDI through qualitative assessment. When quantitatively compared with SPI, SDCI showed a potential to be used for forecasting short term drought intensification. Finally this research provided a SDCI-based equation to predict short term drought intensification optimized over the Korean Peninsula.

  20. Modelling predicts that tolerance to drought during reproductive development will be required for high yield potential and stability of wheat in Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Semenov, Mikhail A.; Stratonovitch, Pierre; Paul, Matthew J.

    2017-04-01

    Short periods of extreme weather, such as a spell of high temperature or drought during a sensitive stage of development, could result in substantial yield losses due to reduction in grain number and grain size. In a modelling study (Stratonovitch & Semenov 2015), heat tolerance around flowering in wheat was identified as a key trait for increased yield potential in Europe under climate change. Ji et all (Ji et al. 2010) demonstrated cultivar specific responses of yield to drought stress around flowering in wheat. They hypothesised that carbohydrate supply to anthers may be the key in maintaining pollen fertility and grain number in wheat. It was shown in (Nuccio et al. 2015) that genetically modified varieties of maize that increase the concentration of sucrose in ear spikelets, performed better under non-drought and drought conditions in field experiments. The objective of this modelling study was to assess potential benefits of tolerance to drought during reproductive development for wheat yield potential and yield stability across Europe. We used the Sirius wheat model to optimise wheat ideotypes for 2050 (HadGEM2, RCP8.5) climate scenarios at selected European sites. Eight cultivar parameters were optimised to maximise mean yields, including parameters controlling phenology, canopy growth and water limitation. At those sites where water could be limited, ideotypes sensitive to drought produced substantially lower mean yields and higher yield variability compare with tolerant ideotypes. Therefore, tolerance to drought during reproductive development is likely to be required for wheat cultivars optimised for the future climate in Europe in order to achieve high yield potential and yield stability.

  1. A Distributed Multi-dimensional SOLAP Model of Remote Sensing Data and Its Application in Drought Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    LI Jiyuan

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available SOLAP (Spatial On-Line Analytical Processing has been applied to multi-dimensional analysis of remote sensing data recently. However, its computation performance faces a considerable challenge from the large-scale dataset. A geo-raster cube model extended by Map-Reduce is proposed, which refers to the application of Map-Reduce (a data-intensive computing paradigm in the OLAP field. In this model, the existing methods are modified to adapt to distributed environment based on the multi-level raster tiles. Then the multi-dimensional map algebra is introduced to decompose the SOLAP computation into multiple distributed parallel map algebra functions on tiles under the support of Map-Reduce. The drought monitoring by remote sensing data is employed as a case study to illustrate the model construction and application. The prototype is also implemented, and the performance testing shows the efficiency and scalability of this model.

  2. Phenotyping common beans for adaptation to drought

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beebe, Stephen E.; Rao, Idupulapati M.; Blair, Matthew W.; Acosta-Gallegos, Jorge A.

    2013-01-01

    Common beans (Phaseolus vulgaris L.) originated in the New World and are the grain legume of greatest production for direct human consumption. Common bean production is subject to frequent droughts in highland Mexico, in the Pacific coast of Central America, in northeast Brazil, and in eastern and southern Africa from Ethiopia to South Africa. This article reviews efforts to improve common bean for drought tolerance, referring to genetic diversity for drought response, the physiology of drought tolerance mechanisms, and breeding strategies. Different races of common bean respond differently to drought, with race Durango of highland Mexico being a major source of genes. Sister species of P. vulgaris likewise have unique traits, especially P. acutifolius which is well adapted to dryland conditions. Diverse sources of tolerance may have different mechanisms of plant response, implying the need for different methods of phenotyping to recognize the relevant traits. Practical considerations of field management are discussed including: trial planning; water management; and field preparation. PMID:23507928

  3. Phenotyping common beans for adaptation to drought.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beebe, Stephen E; Rao, Idupulapati M; Blair, Matthew W; Acosta-Gallegos, Jorge A

    2013-01-01

    Common beans (Phaseolus vulgaris L.) originated in the New World and are the grain legume of greatest production for direct human consumption. Common bean production is subject to frequent droughts in highland Mexico, in the Pacific coast of Central America, in northeast Brazil, and in eastern and southern Africa from Ethiopia to South Africa. This article reviews efforts to improve common bean for drought tolerance, referring to genetic diversity for drought response, the physiology of drought tolerance mechanisms, and breeding strategies. Different races of common bean respond differently to drought, with race Durango of highland Mexico being a major source of genes. Sister species of P. vulgaris likewise have unique traits, especially P. acutifolius which is well adapted to dryland conditions. Diverse sources of tolerance may have different mechanisms of plant response, implying the need for different methods of phenotyping to recognize the relevant traits. Practical considerations of field management are discussed including: trial planning; water management; and field preparation.

  4. Using Search Algorithms and Probabilistic Graphical Models to Understand the Influence of Atmospheric Circulation on Western US Drought

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malevich, S. B.; Woodhouse, C. A.

    2015-12-01

    This work explores a new approach to quantify cool-season mid-latitude circulation dynamics as they relate western US streamflow variability and drought. This information is used to probabilistically associate patterns of synoptic atmospheric circulation with spatial patterns of drought in western US streamflow. Cool-season storms transport moisture from the Pacific Ocean and are a primary source for western US streamflow. Studies overthe past several decades have emphasized that the western US hydroclimate is influenced by the intensity and phasing of ocean and atmosphere dynamics and teleconnections, such as ENSO and North Pacific variability. These complex interactions are realized in atmospheric circulation along the west coast of North America. The region's atmospheric circulation can encourage a preferential flow in winter storm tracks from the Pacific, and thus influence the moisture conditions of a given river basin over the course of the cool season. These dynamics have traditionally been measured with atmospheric indices based on values from fixed points in space or principal component loadings. This study uses collective search agents to quantify the position and intensity of potentially non-stationary atmosphere features in climate reanalysis datasets, relative to regional hydrology. Results underline the spatio-temporal relationship between semi-permanent atmosphere characteristics and naturalized streamflow from major river basins of the western US. A probabilistic graphical model quantifies this relationship while accounting for uncertainty from noisy climate processes, and eventually, limitations from dataset length. This creates probabilities for semi-permanent atmosphere features which we hope to associate with extreme droughts of the paleo record, based on our understanding of atmosphere-streamflow relations observed in the instrumental record.

  5. Observed and modeled ecosystem isoprene fluxes from an oak-dominated temperate forest and the influence of drought stress

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Potosnak, M.; LeStourgeon, Lauren; Pallardy, Stephen G.; Hosman, Kevin P.; Gu, Lianghong; Karl, Thomas; Geron, Chris; Guenther, Alex B.

    2014-02-19

    Ecosystem fluxes of isoprene emission were measured during the majority of the 2011 growing season at the University of Missouri's Baskett Wildlife Research and Education Area in centralMissouri, USA (38.7° N, 92.2° W). This broadleaf deciduous forest is typical of forests common in theOzarks region of the central United States. The goal of the isoprene flux measurements was to test ourunderstanding of the controls on isoprene emission from the hourly to the seasonal timescale using a state-of-the-art emission model, MEGAN (Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature). Isoprene emission rates were very high from the forest with a maximum of 50.9 mg m-2 hr-1 (208 nmol m-2 s-1), which to our knowledge exceeds all other reports of canopy-scale isoprene emission. The fluxes showed a clear dependence on the previous temperature and light regimes which was successfully captured by the existing algorithms in MEGAN. During a period of drought, MEGAN was unable to reproduce the time-dependent response of isoprene emission to water stress. Overall, the performance of MEGAN was robust and could explain 87% of the observed variance in the measured fluxes, but the response of isoprene emission to drought stress is a major source of uncertainty.

  6. Drought, Sustainability, and the Law

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert W. Adler

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available Researchers and responsible officials have made considerable progress in recent years in efforts to anticipate, plan for, and respond to drought. Some of those efforts are beginning to shift from purely reactive, relief-oriented measures to programs designed to prevent or to mitigate drought impacts. Considerably less attention has been given to laws that may affect practices and policies that either increase or decrease drought vulnerability. Water law regimes, drought response and relief legislation, and laws governing broader but related issues of economic policy—especially agricultural policy—should be evaluated more comprehensively to enhance incentives for more ―water sustainable‖ practices in agriculture and other sectors of the economy. Those changes will be increasingly important if current climate change models are correct in their prediction that many parts of the world can expect more frequent and more severe conditions of meteorological drought in the ensuing decades.

  7. National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS), United State Drought Portal (USDP): A Window on Drought Information, Impacts and Implications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Owen, T.; Svoboda, M.; Pulwarty, R.

    2007-12-01

    The NIDIS Act of 2006 calls for an interagency approach to improve drought monitoring, forecasting and early warning. Led by NOAA, NIDIS focuses on the consolidation of physical, hydrological and socio-economic impacts data; integrated observing networks; development of a suite of drought decision support and simulation tools; and interactive delivery of standardized products through an internet portal. The vision for NIDIS is a dynamic and accessible drought risk information system that informs user decisions in preparing for and mitigating of the effects of drought. In support of this vision, the U.S. Drought Portal (USDP) will be a national resource for data, models, risk information and impacts of drought, with responsibility for integrating, archiving, and disseminating data via the internet. A portal environment, defined as a "site on the World Wide Web that typically provides personalized capabilities for their visitors," is critical, as it allows selected drought information from multiple authorities to be consolidated and interrogated, while simultaneously using metadata references to identify emerging information from the drought community. The USDP will provide reliable information on drought conditions at county, regional and national scales and serve as the primary point of entry for drought-related queries (through the already secured drought.gov URL) for a variety of user groups. Such questions include: -Where are drought conditions now and where might they develop? -Does this drought event look like other events in the past? -Will the drought continue? -How is the drought affecting me? -How can I plan for and manage the impacts of drought? The USDP will be comprised of information tailored for various user communities. The portal will work by combining NIDIS-related data and information with tools necessary to exchange and integrate data on various space and time scales, and among various formats. These portal data will incorporate a spectrum of

  8. QTL-based physiological modelling of leaf photosynthesis and crop productivity of rice (Oryza sativa L.) under well-watered and drought environments

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gu, J.

    2013-01-01

    Key words: Drought, ecophysiological crop modelling, GECROS, genotype, G×E interaction, modelling, Oryza sativa L., photosynthesis, quantitative trait locus, rice.   Improving grain yield of rice (Oryza sativa L.) crop for both favourable and stressful environments is the main breeding

  9. Drought as a driver of declining boreal forest growth: Integrating forest inventory measurements with models to gain insight into underlying mechanisms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trugman, A. T.; Medvigy, D.; Anderegg, W.; Caspersen, J.; Zeng, H.; Pacala, S. W.

    2016-12-01

    Boreal forests contain over 30% of Earth's terrestrial carbon and are an important component of the land carbon sink. However, the future ability of the boreal forest to maintain a net carbon sink is uncertain and depends on potentially compensating interactions of CO2 fertilization, warmer temperatures, and hotter drought conditions. Observational studies have attributed drought as a major driver of recent declines in growth and increases in mortality in many parts of the North American boreal forest. Yet, most vegetation models have a simplistic representation of vegetation water stress and fail to capture drought-associated growth and mortality trends, impacting our ability to accurately forecast the effects of climate change on the boreal forest. Here, we show additional evidence for widespread declines in boreal tree growth and increasing insect-related mortality in aspen trees based on a mixed model analysis of the Cooperative Alaska Forest Inventory. Our findings indicate that the growth decline is controlled by high midsummer potential evapotranspiration that overpowers any CO2 fertilization signal. We also observe a possible shift in the distribution of angiosperm and gymnosperm, a biological transition that could impact long-term local carbon dynamics. Using insight gained from our mixed model analysis, we perform a regional-scale model evaluation using the boreal forest version of Ecosystem Demography model 2 that includes a dynamic soil organic layer, 7 boreal-specific plant functional types, and a fully mechanistic plant hydraulic scheme. We then use both the Alaskan and Canadian Forest Inventories to constrain our hypotheses and assess whether drought related growth declines can be better attributed to tree drought response from (1) carbon starvation, (2) permanent damage of hydraulic machinery, or (3) delayed recovery of hydraulic machinery. Under each of these scenarios we forecast how drought potentially impacts decadal-scale boreal carbon dynamics.

  10. A physical model for extreme drought over southwest Asia: Chapter 17

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoell, Andrew; Funk, Chris; Barlow, Mathew; Cannon, Forrest

    2017-01-01

    The socioeconomic difficulties of southwest Asia, defined as the area bound by the domain 25°N–40°N and 40°E–70°E, are exacerbated by extreme precipitation deficits during the November–April rainy season. The precipitation deficits during many southwest Asia droughts have been examined in terms of the forcing by climate variability originating over the Pacific Ocean as a result of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific decadal variability (PDV), and the long-term warming of Pacific (LT) sea surface temperatures (SST). Here we examine how the most extreme November–April southwest Asia droughts relate to global SSTs and the associated large-scale atmospheric circulation anomalies and analyze the specific atmospheric forcing mechanisms responsible for changes in regional southwest Asian precipitation. The driest November–April seasons during 1948–2012 over southwest Asia are forced by subsidence and reductions of moisture fluxes as a result of the interaction of the mean flow with anomalous zonally symmetric high pressure throughout the Northern Hemisphere. The anomalous zonally symmetric high pressure throughout the Northern Hemisphere occurs simultaneously with cool central and eastern Pacific SST anomalies associated with La Niña and the negative phase of PDV and a warm west Pacific Ocean caused in part by the long-term warming of the west Pacific Ocean.

  11. Water Consumption, Soil Temperature and Soil Respiration in Model Ecosystems of Young Oak Stands Treated by Air-warming and Drought

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuster, Thomas; Arend, Matthias; Günthardt-Goerg, Madeleine S.; Schulin, Rainer

    2010-05-01

    IPCC scenarios predict a global mean annual temperature increase during the 21st century of 2 - 6 °C, as well as changes in precipitation patterns. The multidisciplinary project "Querco" addresses the question how increased air temperature and extended drought periods will influence stands of young oaks. For this purpose, mixed stands of young Q. robur, Q. pubescens and Q. petrea (4-year-old trees from seeds of four different provenances each) were composed in the WSL open-top model-ecosystem chambers on either acid or calcareous forest soils and grown under four different climate treatments (control, air-warming, drought, air-warming & drought) from 2007 to 2009. Drought treated chambers only received about one third of water during the growing seasons from May to October as compared to the control. Further, we established longer drought periods without any irrigation. The air-warming treatment was established by keeping the side walls of the open-top chambers more closed than in the controls. Unsurprisingly, evapotranspiration from dry soils was much lower than from irrigated soils. There was significantly more evapotranspiration from the acidic than from the calcareous soil. These findings are in line with increased leaf transpiration rates and a tendency towards higher leaf biomass in oaks growing on acid as compared to calcareous soil. The higher evapotranspiration from acid soils also was in line with the fact that soil water potentials decreased more in acidic than in calcareous soils, an effect that became particularly significant during periods of high consumptive water demand by the trees. While soil water potentials were strongly decreased by the drought treatments down to 1 m depth, the air-warming treatment had almost no effect on soil water potential. Treatments, air-warming and drought, significantly increased soil temperature. In drought treated soils, this effect was related to the lower water content as compared to the control soils. As intended

  12. Simulating the 2012 High Plains Drought Using Three Single Column Model Versions of the Community Earth System Model (SCM-CESM)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Medina, I. D.; Denning, S.

    2014-12-01

    The impact of changes in the frequency and severity of drought on fresh water sustainability is a great concern for many regions of the world. One such location is the High Plains, where the local economy is primarily driven by fresh water withdrawals from the Ogallala Aquifer, which accounts for approximately 30% of total irrigation withdrawals from all U.S. aquifers combined. Modeling studies that focus on the feedback mechanisms that control the climate and eco-hydrology during times of drought are limited in the sense that they use conventional General Circulation Models (GCMs) with grid length scales ranging from one hundred to several hundred kilometers. Additionally, these models utilize crude statistical parameterizations of cloud processes for estimating sub-grid fluxes of heat and moisture and have a poor representation of land surface heterogeneity. For this research, we focus on the 2012 High Plains drought, and will perform numerical simulations using three single column model versions of the Community Earth System Model (SCM-CESM) at multiple sites overlying the Ogallala Aquifer for the 2010-2012 period. In the first version of SCM-CESM, CESM will be used in standard mode (Community Atmospheric Model (CAM) coupled to a single instance of the Community Land Model (CLM)), secondly, CESM will be used in Super-Parameterized mode (SP-CESM), where a cloud resolving model (CRM consists of 32 atmospheric columns) replaces the standard CAM atmospheric parameterization and is coupled to a single instance of CLM, and thirdly, CESM is used in "Multi Instance" SP-CESM mode, where an instance of CLM is coupled to each CRM column of SP-CESM (32 CRM columns coupled to 32 instances of CLM). To assess the physical realism of the land-atmosphere feedbacks simulated at each site by all versions of SCM-CESM, differences in simulated energy and moisture fluxes will be computed between years for the 2010-2012 period, and will be compared to differences calculated using

  13. Modeling rain-fed maize vulnerability to droughts using the standardized precipitation index from satellite estimated rainfall—Southern Malawi case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Funk, Christopher C.; Verdin, James; Adams Chavula,; Gregory J. Husak,; Harikishan Jayanthi,; Tamuka Magadzire,

    2013-01-01

    During 1990s, disaster risk reduction emerged as a novel, proactive approach to managing risks from natural hazards. The World Bank, USAID, and other international donor agencies began making efforts to mainstream disaster risk reduction in countries whose population and economies were heavily dependent on rain-fed agriculture. This approach has more significance in light of the increasing climatic hazard patterns and the climate scenarios projected for different hazard prone countries in the world. The Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS NET) has been monitoring the food security issues in the sub-Saharan Africa, Asia and in Haiti. FEWS NET monitors the rainfall and moisture availability conditions with the help of NOAA RFE2 data for deriving food security status in Africa. This paper highlights the efforts in using satellite estimated rainfall inputs to develop drought vulnerability models in the drought prone areas in Malawi. The satellite RFE2 based SPI corresponding to the critical tasseling and silking phases (in the months of January, February, and March) were statistically regressed with drought-induced yield losses at the district level. The analysis has shown that the drought conditions in February and early March lead to most damage to maize yields in this region. The district-wise vulnerabilities to drought were upscaled to obtain a regional maize vulnerability model for southern Malawi. The results would help in establishing an early monitoring mechanism for drought impact assessment, give the decision makers additional time to assess seasonal outcomes, and identify potential food-related hazards in Malawi.

  14. Epidemiology of extrapulmonary tuberculosis in Brazil: a hierarchical model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gomes, Teresa; Reis-Santos, Bárbara; Bertolde, Adelmo; Johnson, John L; Riley, Lee W; Maciel, Ethel Leonor

    2014-01-08

    Although extrapulmonary tuberculosis (EPTB) is less frequent than Pulmonary Tuberculosis (PTB) and is a secondary target for national TB control programs, its significance has increased worldwide during the HIV epidemic. The objective of this study was to examine the epidemiology of EPTB in Brazil between 2007 and 2011. Cross-sectional study involving all cases of TB reported to the Brazilian Notifiable Diseases Surveillance System (Sistema de Informações de Agravo de Notificação - SINAN) in Brazil between 2007 and 2011. Sociodemographic and clinical characteristics of patients with exclusively PTB and exclusively EPTB were compared. Following analysis with Pearson's chi-square test, variables with p EPTB, 13,989 (3.27%; 95% CI 3.21% - 3.32%) were concurrent pulmonary and extrapulmonary TB. Patients with EPTB were mainly white (16.7%), and most (29.1%) patients had five to eight years of education. Among comorbidities, HIV infection was prominent (OR 2.15; 95% CI 2.09 - 2.21), although the proportion of cases awaiting test results or untested was high (39%). Ethanol use (OR 0.45; 95% CI 0.43 - 0.46), diabetes mellitus (OR 0.54; 95% CI 0.51 - 0.57) and mental illness (OR 0.88; 95% CI 0.82 - 0.95) were associated with PTB. Thirteen percent of patients diagnosed with TB in Brazil have only EPTB. More effective diagnostic strategies and control measures are needed to reduce the number of cases of extrapulmonary TB in Brazil.

  15. A Framework for Drought Risk Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Apurv, T.; Cai, X.

    2016-12-01

    Drought is one of the most expensive natural disasters as it affects many sectors of the economy. The threat posed by droughts is expected to further increase due to increasing water demands fuelled by increasing population and also due to climate change in many regions. Management of the increasing drought risk requires shift from traditional crisis management approaches to long term strategic planning for reduction of drought risk. This study proposes a framework for management of long term drought risk. The framework uses the system based approach proposed by Tsakiris et al. (2013), in which a watershed is considered as a system and different water sources in the watershed (like groundwater, reservoirs, streams etc.) are considered as subsystems associated with certain water requirements of different sectors. Droughts are defined separately for each subsystem considering water availability and requirement. The percentile based drought indicator framework proposed by Steinemann et al. (2015) is used for defining drought for each subsystem, allowing the selection of thresholds, variables of interest, and time scale which are most relevant for stakeholders dependent on a particular subsystem. Future drought risk under different drought management strategies are assessed using hydrologic models that model both hydrologic and human components of a watershed. The robustness of a management strategy is assessed by simulating system response across a wide range of stochastically generated future climate scenarios. The framework is useful for operational drought management as it allows direct management of drought risks with consideration of different water sources and water users. Steinemann, A., Iacobellis, S.F., Cayan, D.R., (2015) "Developing and evaluating drought indicators for decision-making" J. Hydrometeor. 16 (4), 1793-1803 Tsakiris, G, Nalbantis, I, Vangelis, H, Verbeiren, B, Huysmans, M, Tychon, B, Jacquemin, I, Canters, F, Vanderhaegen, S, Engelen, G

  16. Assimilation of GRACE Terrestrial Water Storage into a Land Surface Model: Evaluation 1 and Potential Value for Drought Monitoring in Western and Central Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Bailing; Rodell, Matthew; Zaitchik, Benjamin F.; Reichle, Rolf H.; Koster, Randal D.; van Dam, Tonie M.

    2012-01-01

    A land surface model s ability to simulate states (e.g., soil moisture) and fluxes (e.g., runoff) is limited by uncertainties in meteorological forcing and parameter inputs as well as inadequacies in model physics. In this study, anomalies of terrestrial water storage (TWS) observed by the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission were assimilated into the NASA Catchment land surface model in western and central Europe for a 7-year period, using a previously developed ensemble Kalman smoother. GRACE data assimilation led to improved runoff correlations with gauge data in 17 out of 18 hydrological basins, even in basins smaller than the effective resolution of GRACE. Improvements in root zone soil moisture were less conclusive, partly due to the shortness of the in situ data record. In addition to improving temporal correlations, GRACE data assimilation also reduced increasing trends in simulated monthly TWS and runoff associated with increasing rates of precipitation. GRACE assimilated root zone soil moisture and TWS fields exhibited significant changes in their dryness rankings relative to those without data assimilation, suggesting that GRACE data assimilation could have a substantial impact on drought monitoring. Signals of drought in GRACE TWS correlated well with MODIS Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data in most areas. Although they detected the same droughts during warm seasons, drought signatures in GRACE derived TWS exhibited greater persistence than those in NDVI throughout all seasons, in part due to limitations associated with the seasonality of vegetation.

  17. Using the CAUSE Model to Understand Public Communication about Water Risks: Perspectives from Texas Groundwater District Officials on Drought and Availability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    VanDyke, Matthew S; King, Andy J

    2017-12-05

    Public communication about drought and water availability risks poses challenges to a potentially disinterested public. Water management professionals, though, have a responsibility to work with the public to engage in communication about water and environmental risks. Because limited research in water management examines organizational communication practices and perceptions, insights into research and practice can be gained through investigation of current applications of these risk communication efforts. Guided by the CAUSE model, which explains common goals in communicating risk information to the public (e.g., creating Confidence, generating Awareness, enhancing Understanding, gaining Satisfaction, and motivating Enactment), semistructured interviews of professionals (N = 25) employed by Texas groundwater conservation districts were conducted. The interviews examined how CAUSE model considerations factor in to communication about drought and water availability risks. These data suggest that many work to build constituents' confidence in their districts. Although audiences and constituents living in drought-prone areas were reported as being engaged with water availability risks and solutions, many district officials noted constituents' lack of perceived risk and engagement. Some managers also indicated that public understanding was a secondary concern of their primary responsibilities and that the public often seemed apathetic about technical details related to water conservation risks. Overall, results suggest complicated dynamics between officials and the public regarding information access and motivation. The article also outlines extensions of the CAUSE model and implications for improving public communication about drought and water availability risks. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

  18. Modelling spatial heterogeneity of phytoplankton in Lake Mangueira, a large shallow subtropical lake in South Brazil

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fragoso, C.R.; Motta Marques, D.M.L.; Collischonn, W.; Tucci, C.E.M.; Nes, van E.H.

    2008-01-01

    We present a model describing phytoplankton growth in Lake Mangueira, a large subtropical lake in the Taim Hydrological System in South Brazil (817 km2, average depth 2 m). The horizontal 2D model consists of three modules: (a) a detailed hydrodynamic module for shallow water, which deals with

  19. 3-D Hydraulic Model Testing of the New Roundhead in Suape, Brazil

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Thomas Lykke; Burcharth, Hans F.; Sipavicius, A.

    This report deals with a three-dimensional model test study of the extension of the breakwater in Suape, Brazil. The roundhead was tested for stability in various sea conditions. The length scale used for the model tests was 1:35. Unless otherwise specified all values given in this report...

  20. Evaluating the drought response of CMIP5 models using global gross primary productivity, leaf area, precipitation, and soil moisture data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Yuanyuan; Gerber, Stefan; Huang, Tongyi; Lichstein, Jeremy W.

    2016-12-01

    Realistic representation of vegetation's response to drought is important for understanding terrestrial carbon cycling. We evaluated nine Earth system models from the historical experiment of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 for the response of gross primary productivity (GPP) and leaf area index (LAI) to hydrological anomalies. Hydrological anomalies were characterized by the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and surface soil moisture anomalies (SMA). GPP and LAI in models were on average more responsive to SPI than in observations revealed through several indicators. First, we find higher mean correlations between global annual anomalies of GPP and SPI in models than observations. Second, the maximum correlation between GPP and SPI across 1-24 month time scales is higher in models than observations. And finally, we found stronger excursions of GPP to extreme dry or wet events. Similar to GPP, LAI responded more to SPI in models than observations. The over-response of models is smaller if evaluated based on SMA instead of SPI. LAI responses to SMA are inconsistent among models, showing both higher and lower LAI when soil moisture is reduced. The time scale of maximum correlation is shorter in models than the observation for GPP, and the markedly different response time scales among models for LAI indicate gaps in understanding how variability of water availability affects foliar cover. The discrepancy of responses derived from SPI and SMA among models, and between models and observations, calls for improvement in understanding the dynamics of plant-available water in addition to how vegetation responds to these anomalies.

  1. Development and evaluation of a comprehensive drought index.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Esfahanian, Elaheh; Nejadhashemi, A Pouyan; Abouali, Mohammad; Adhikari, Umesh; Zhang, Zhen; Daneshvar, Fariborz; Herman, Matthew R

    2017-01-01

    Droughts are known as the world's costliest natural disasters impacting a variety of sectors. Despite their wide range of impacts, no universal drought definition has been defined. The goal of this study is to define a universal drought index that considers drought impacts on meteorological, agricultural, hydrological, and stream health categories. Additionally, predictive drought models are developed to capture both categorical (meteorological, hydrological, and agricultural) and overall impacts of drought. In order to achieve these goals, thirteen commonly used drought indices were aggregated to develop a universal drought index named MASH. The thirteen drought indices consist of four drought indices from each meteorological, hydrological, and agricultural categories, and one from the stream health category. Cluster analysis was performed to find the three closest indices in each category. Then the closest drought indices were averaged in each category to create the categorical drought score. Finally, the categorical drought scores were simply averaged to develop the MASH drought index. In order to develop predictive drought models for each category and MASH, the ReliefF algorithm was used to rank 90 variables and select the best variable set. Using the best variable set, the adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) was used to develop drought predictive models and their accuracy was examined using the 10-fold cross validation technique. The models' predictabilities ranged from R 2  = 0.75 for MASH to R 2  = 0.98 for the hydrological drought model. The results of this study can help managers to better position resources to cope with drought by reducing drought impacts on different sectors. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Future discharge drought across climate regions around the world modelled with a synthetic hydrological modelling approach forced by three general circulation models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wanders, N.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/364253940; Van Lanen, H. A J

    2015-01-01

    Hydrological drought characteristics (drought in groundwater and streamflow) likely will change in the 21st century as a result of climate change. The magnitude and directionality of these changes and their dependency on climatology and catchment characteristics, however, is uncertain. In this study

  3. Future discharge drought across climate regions around the world modelled with a synthetic hydrological modelling approach forced by three general circulation models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wanders, N.; Lanen, Van H.A.J.

    2015-01-01

    Hydrological drought characteristics (drought in groundwater and streamflow) likely will change in the 21st century as a result of climate change. The magnitude and directionality of these changes and their dependency on climatology and catchment characteristics, however, is uncertain. In this

  4. a Brazilian Vulnerability Index to Natural Disasters of Drought - in the Context of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Camarinha, P. I., Sr.; Debortoli, N. S.; Hirota, M.

    2015-12-01

    Droughts are characterized as one of the main types of natural disasters that occur in Brazil. During the 1991-2012, droughts affected more than 14 million Brazilians, so that the concern for the following decades is about the potential impacts triggered by climate change. To analyze the vulnerability of the Brazilian municipalities to drought disasters, we have assessed the effects of climate change to droughts until the end of 21th century. A composite index was created based on three different dimensions: i) Exposure, represented by climate anomalies related to the drought process, such as changes in accumulated rainfall averages, interannual variability of rainfall, and the frequency and magnitude of severe droughts (measured by the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index); ii) Sensitivity, encompassing socioeconomic, demographic, land use and water management data; iii) Adaptive Capacity, consisting of socioeconomic and institutional data from Brazilian municipalities, such as the Human Development Index (HDI), social inequality (Gini index) and illiteracy rate. The climate variables used in this study are results from simulations of the Regional Climate Model Eta (with a downscaling of 20km spatial resolution) nested with two global climate models (HadGEM ES and MIROC 5) and was provided by National Institute for Space Research. The baseline period was 1961-1990 and future periods was 2011-2040; 2041-2070 and 2071-2099. For the simulations of future climate it was used the 4.5 and 8.5 IPCC/AR5 RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways) scenarios. All variables used in this study was handled, exploited and related in a Geographic Information System (GIS). The methodology allowed the identification of vulnerability hotspots, the targeting of adaptation strategies and the development of public policy to minimize the potential impacts of future droughts. The final results (see attached image) indicate that the most vulnerable regions are located in

  5. Regional assimilation of CO2 and δ13C surface data to assess terrestrial biosphere models under drought stress

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Velde, I. R.; Miller, J. B.; Alden, C. B.; Andrews, A. E.; Schaefer, K. M.; Peters, W.; Tans, P. P.; Vaughn, B. H.; White, J. W. C.

    2016-12-01

    Observed atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) and the ratios of its stable isotopologue 13CO2/12CO2 (δ13C) contain unique signals of large-scale drought stress that affect the biosphere. When plants experience physiological stress due to heat and drought at leaf level they respond by closing their stomata. This is a safety mechanism that prevents excessive water loss at the expense of carbon uptake, and it changes the overall water-use efficiency. During photosynthesis, 12CO2 is preferentially assimilated over 13CO2, leaving the atmosphere enriched in 13CO2. Water stress slightly changes the ratio of 13CO2 and 12CO2 molecules being removed from the atmosphere, i.e., a reduction of canopy isotope discrimination (Δ), and its changes are evident in atmospheric δ13C.To improve our understanding of the coupled vegetation-atmosphere system we are developing an ensemble Kalman filter assimilation of high precision measurements of CO2 and δ13C from air samples collected over North America. It uses footprints provided by WRF-STILT that allows for efficient atmospheric transport simulations on a much higher horizontal resolution than with a global Eulerian transport model. To force consistency with atmospheric CO2 and δ13C observations we will optimize regional net terrestrial CO2 exchange (NEE) and Δ from a terrestrial biosphere model. We will carefully evaluate the sensitivity of the optimized parameters to uncertainties in the terrestrial biosphere fluxes, observations, time/space aggregation methods, and boundary conditions. Our main questions are: (i) what signal-to-noise in the data, as interpreted by the model, is large enough to robustly estimate Δ and NEE? and (ii) how do the optimized NEE and Δ that are based on the atmospheric constraint compare with the predicted NEE and Δ that are based on biophysical parameterizations? Our ability to accurately predict the responses of the terrestrial biosphere to changing humidity and soil moisture regimes is currently

  6. Model or Myopia? Exploiting Water Markets to Address Population and Drought Risks in a Changing World

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reed, P. M.

    2012-12-01

    Climate change, population demands, and evolving land-use represent strong risks to the sustainable development and stability of world-wide urban water supplies. There is a growing consensus that non-structural supply management instruments such as water markets have significant potential to reduce the risks and vulnerabilities in complex urban water systems. This paper asks a common question, what are the tradeoffs for a city using water market supply instruments?. This question emerges quickly in policy and management, but its answer is deceptively difficult to attain using traditional planning tools and management frameworks. This research demonstrates new frameworks that facilitate rapid evaluation of hypotheses on the reliability, resiliency, adaptability, and cost-effectiveness of urban water supply systems. This study considers a broader exploration of the issues of "nonstationarity" and "uncertainty" in urban water planning. As we invest in new information and prediction frameworks for the coupled human-natural systems that define our water, our problem definitions (i.e., objectives, constraints, preferences, and hypotheses) themselves evolve. From a formal mathematical perspective, this means that our management problems are structurally uncertain and nonstationary (i.e., the definition of optimality changes across regions, times, and stakeholders). This uncertainty and nonstationarity in our problem definitions needs to be more explicitly acknowledged in adaptive management and integrated water resources management. This study demonstrates the potential benefits of exploring these issues in the context of a city in the Lower Rio Grande Valley (LRGV) of Texas, USA determining how to use its regional water market to manage population and drought risks.

  7. Assessing the impacts of droughts and heat waves at thermoelectric power plants in the United States using integrated regression, thermodynamic, and climate models

    OpenAIRE

    Cook, Margaret A.; King, Carey W.; Davidson, F. Todd; Webber, Michael E.

    2015-01-01

    Recent droughts and heat waves have revealed the vulnerability of some power plants to effects from higher temperature intake water for cooling. In this evaluation, we develop a methodology for predicting whether power plants are at risk of violating thermal pollution limits. We begin by developing a regression model of average monthly intake temperatures for open loop and recirculating cooling pond systems. We then integrate that information into a thermodynamic model of energy flows within ...

  8. Not all droughts are created equal: the impacts of interannual drought pattern and magnitude on grassland carbon cycling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoover, David L; Rogers, Brendan M

    2016-05-01

    Climate extremes, such as drought, may have immediate and potentially prolonged effects on carbon cycling. Grasslands store approximately one-third of all terrestrial carbon and may become carbon sources during droughts. However, the magnitude and duration of drought-induced disruptions to the carbon cycle, as well as the mechanisms responsible, remain poorly understood. Over the next century, global climate models predict an increase in two types of drought: chronic but subtle 'press-droughts', and shorter term but extreme 'pulse-droughts'. Much of our current understanding of the ecological impacts of drought comes from experimental rainfall manipulations. These studies have been highly valuable, but are often short term and rarely quantify carbon feedbacks. To address this knowledge gap, we used the Community Land Model 4.0 to examine the individual and interactive effects of pulse- and press-droughts on carbon cycling in a mesic grassland of the US Great Plains. A series of modeling experiments were imposed by varying drought magnitude (precipitation amount) and interannual pattern (press- vs. pulse-droughts) to examine the effects on carbon storage and cycling at annual to century timescales. We present three main findings. First, a single-year pulse-drought had immediate and prolonged effects on carbon storage due to differential sensitivities of ecosystem respiration and gross primary production. Second, short-term pulse-droughts caused greater carbon loss than chronic press-droughts when total precipitation reductions over a 20-year period were equivalent. Third, combining pulse- and press-droughts had intermediate effects on carbon loss compared to the independent drought types, except at high drought levels. Overall, these results suggest that interannual drought pattern may be as important for carbon dynamics as drought magnitude and that extreme droughts may have long-lasting carbon feedbacks in grassland ecosystems. Published 2015. This article is a U

  9. From meteorological to hydrological drought in the Upper Niger Basin: trend and uncertainty analysis in the monitoring and the modeling of rainfall deficits and low flow responses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fournet, S.; Aich, V.; Liersch, S.; Hattermann, F. F.

    2012-04-01

    From 1970 to 2002, the Sahel experienced a fairly abrupt, severe and continuous dry episode. The main reason is the oceanic forcing ruling the West African monsoon dynamic. Also, a combinative effect of climate and anthropogenic changes (demographic pressure on land associated to inappropriate land-use practices) initiates and supports the interactive processes of drying and land cover degradation forming a complex land atmosphere feedback convection. The Great Drought in Mali largely affected the regional food security, the human societies and economic development and the conservation of wet and semi-arid ecosystems. It results in an increasing competition and conflicts for water access between vulnerable local stakeholders (rainfed and controlled irrigation farming, nomad pastoralism, traditional fishing) and steers national investments with the construction of dams and diversion channels for development of hydropower energy and fully governed irrigated agriculture. To support drought adaptations in regional development strategies, climate and hydrological forecasting are thus of paramount importance. Whilst climate change is typically associated with an increase in mean global surface temperature, what matters regionally and still remains uncertain is the change in rainfall, discharge and drought patterns from daily intensity to large inter-annual and multi-decadal variability. Different climate data sources exist for investigation of climate variability and change: daily measurements, reanalysis data and climate scenarios using Global and Regional Circulation Models (GCMs and RCMs). This study aims at analyzing the suitability of the different data sources for drought investigation in the target area, the Upper Niger Basin. First, the performance of meteorological data sets based on climate reanalysis is assessed in comparison of data of synoptic stations. Second, one statistical (STAR) and two dynamical regional RCMs (CCLM, REMO) are compared to IPCC-GCM data

  10. Influence of landscape heterogeneity on water available to tropical forests in an Amazonian catchment and implications for modeling drought response: Water Available to Tropical Forest

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fang, Yilin; Leung, Lai-Yung; Duan, Zhuoran; Wigmosta, Mark S.; Maxwell, Reed M.; Chambers, Jeffrey Q.; Tomasella, Javier

    2017-08-18

    The Amazon basin experienced periodic droughts in the past, and climate models projected more intense and frequent droughts in the future. How tropical forests respond to drought may depend on water availability, which is modulated by landscape heterogeneity. Using the one-dimensional ACME Land Model (ALM) and the three-dimensional ParFlow variably saturated flow model, a series of numerical experiments were performed for the Asu catchment in central Amazon to elucidate processes that influence water available for plant use and provide insights for improving Earth system models. Results from ParFlow show that topography has a dominant influence on groundwater table and runoff through lateral flow. Without any representations of lateral processes, ALM simulates very different seasonal variations in groundwater table and runoff compared to ParFlow even if it is able to reproduce the long-term spatial average groundwater table of ParFlow through simple parameter calibration. In the ParFlow simulations, the groundwater table is evidently deeper and the soil saturation is lower in the plateau compared to the valley. However, even in the plateau during the dry season in the drought year of 2005, plant transpiration is not water stressed in the ParFlow simulations as the soil saturation is still sufficient to maintain a soil matric potential for the stomata to be fully open. This finding is insensitive to uncertainty in atmospheric forcing and soil parameters, but the empirical wilting formulation used in the models is an important factor that should be addressed using observations and modeling of coupled plant hydraulics-soil hydrology processes in future studies.

  11. The 2010 Russian Drought Impact on Satellite Measurements of Solar-Induced Chlorophyll Fluorescence: Insights from Modeling and Comparisons with the Normalized Differential Vegetation Index (NDVI)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoshida, Y.; Joiner, J.; Tucker, C.; Berry, J.; Lee, J. -E.; Walker, G.; Reichle, R.; Koster, R.; Lyapustin, A.; Wang, Y.

    2015-01-01

    We examine satellite-based measurements of chlorophyll solar-induced fluorescence (SIF) over the region impacted by the Russian drought and heat wave of 2010. Like the popular Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) that has been used for decades to measure photosynthetic capacity, SIF measurements are sensitive to the fraction of absorbed photosynthetically-active radiation (fPAR). However, in addition, SIF is sensitive to the fluorescence yield that is related to the photosynthetic yield. Both SIF and NDVI from satellite data show drought-related declines early in the growing season in 2010 as compared to other years between 2007 and 2013 for areas dominated by crops and grasslands. This suggests an early manifestation of the dry conditions on fPAR. We also simulated SIF using a global land surface model driven by observation-based meteorological fields. The model provides a reasonable simulation of the drought and heat impacts on SIF in terms of the timing and spatial extents of anomalies, but there are some differences between modeled and observed SIF. The model may potentially be improved through data assimilation or parameter estimation using satellite observations of SIF (as well as NDVI). The model simulations also offer the opportunity to examine separately the different components of the SIF signal and relationships with Gross Primary Productivity (GPP).

  12. Characterizing the exceptional 2014 drought event in São Paulo by drought period length

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zou, Yong; Macau, Elbert E. N.; Sampaio, Gilvan; Ramos, Antônio M. T.; Kurths, Jürgen

    2017-09-01

    In the last decade, the southeast region of Brazil has been suffering severe water shortages. Here, we propose to compute the expected drought period length to characterize the drought events in the region of São Paulo. We report the unique properties of the exceptional drought event during the austral summer 2014 by showing the differences and similarities to the very dry season in 2001 and the mild dry seasons in 2006 and 2015. Furthermore, we investigate the correlations of the abnormal precipitation deficit with the ocean and atmospheric patterns. In comparison to other drought events, we validate the hypothetical mechanism that underlies the exceptional drought 2014: (1) The existence of an anomalous high pressure center in the area acts as a blocking mechanism that prevents moisture transport from the Amazon and passage of cold front systems from south Brazil. This blocking high has been observed in all dry seasons considered, with much larger magnitude in 2014. (2) The much faster increasing trend of the anomalous sea surface temperature acts as a strong feedback which intensified the extreme climate conditions. The unprecedented increasing trend of the SST in 2014 was not observed in other climate variables representing a high pressure center. Therefore, we conclude that the exceptional drought 2014 was enhanced by the feedback mechanism of anomalous warming of SST in the South Atlantic Oceans, which was resulted from the anomalous high pressure.

  13. Plant Survival and Mortality during Drought Can be Mediated by Co-occurring Species' Physiological and Morphological Traits: Results from a Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tai, X.; Mackay, D. S.

    2015-12-01

    Interactions among co-occurring species are mediated by plant physiology, morphology and environment. Without proper mechanisms to account for these factors, it remains difficult to predict plant mortality/survival under changing climate. A plant ecophysiological model, TREES, was extended to incorporate co-occurring species' belowground interaction for water. We used it to examine the interaction between two commonly co-occurring species during drought experiment, pine (Pinus edulis) and juniper (Juniperus monosperma), with contrasting physiological traits (vulnerability to cavitation and leaf water potential regulation). TREES was parameterized and validated using field-measured plant physiological traits. The root architecture (depth, profile, and root area to leaf area ratio) of juniper was adjusted to see how root morphology could affect the survival/mortality of its neighboring pine under both ambient and drought conditions. Drought suppressed plant water and carbon uptake, as well increased the average percentage loss of conductivity (PLC). Pine had 59% reduction in water uptake, 48% reduction in carbon uptake, and 38% increase in PLC, while juniper had 56% reduction in water uptake, 50% reduction in carbon and 29% increase in PLC, suggesting different vulnerability to drought as mediated by plant physiological traits. Variations in juniper root architecture further mediated drought stress on pine, from negative to positive. Different juniper root architecture caused variations in response of pine over drought (water uptake reduction ranged 0% ~63%, carbon uptake reduction ranged 0% ~ 70%, and PLC increase ranged 2% ~ 91%). Deeper or more uniformly distributed roots of juniper could effectively mitigate stress experienced by pine. In addition, the total water and carbon uptake tended to increase as the ratio of root area to leaf area increased while PLC showed non-monotonic response, suggesting the potential trade-off between maximizing resource uptake and

  14. Identification of drought in Dhalai river watershed using MCDM and ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) models from surveyed drought parameter data around the Dhalai river watershed in Tripura hinterlands, India. Total eight drought parameters, i.e., precipitation, soil moisture, ...

  15. Modified Palmer Drought Severity Index Based on Distributed Hydrological Simulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Denghua Yan

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Drought monitoring at large scale is essential for fighting against drought. Aiming at the limitation of acquiring long-time serial soil moisture and actual evapotranspiration for Palmer drought severity index (PDSI, the paper modified the PDSI based on distributed hydrological model on subbasin level in Luanhe river basin, North China. The water balance was simulated using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT. Calibration and validation results showed good agreement between simulated and measured discharges, and the SWAT model can be used to predict hydrological processes in the study area. Then the simulation results of main hydrologic components were used to establish PDSI. The verification of the drought indices showed that the modified PDSI based on SWAT model and Palmer drought severity index could better describe the characteristics of regional drought evolution in the Luanhe river basin. High drought frequency areas were mainly distributed in the grassland regions of upstream located in the eastern part of Inner Mongolia plateau, and the drought area had a significant upward trend form 1973 to 2010. Compared with the traditional Palmer drought severity index, the modified PDSI could reflect the spatial heterogeneity of regional drought and improve the physical mechanism of PDSI. The drought monitoring method can provide technical support for comprehensive understanding of drought and effective preventing and relieving of drought disasters.

  16. SVAT modeling of crop physiological response to drought in potatoes under different types of deficit irrigation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Plauborg, Finn; Mollerup, Mikkel; Abrahamsen, Per

    exchange (CO2 and H2O) from the canopy configured as a big leaf with sun and shade compartments where the gas exchange in its basics is described according to the theory of Farquhar and Ball-Berry, but further modified to include effects of ABA signaling. The Daisy model has as well been further developed...... show some discrepancies between modeled and measured ABA production, probably due to the fact that the latter was obtained from pot experiments. Further, the modeling work show a reasonable fit to measured 2D soil water content, but further refinement of the model is needed to explain water flow...

  17. Índice padronizado de precipitação aplicado às condições de seca no Estado do Espírito Santo Standardized precipitation index applied to drought conditions of the State of Espírito Santo, Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriel C. Blain

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available O Índice Padronizado de Precipitação (SPI é um dos métodos mais utilizados para quantificação da seca. A fim de verificar a possibilidade de utilização do SPI no monitoramento das deficiências e excessos de precipitação na escala mensal, no Estado do Espírito Santo objetivou-se, neste trabalho, verificar o ajuste das séries temporais dessa variável meteorológica à distribuição gama em cinco localidades do Estado. Por meio dos testes de aderência Kolmogorov-Smirnov e qui-quadrado, as séries mensais de precipitação pluvial das localidades sob análise podem ser consideradas oriundas de uma população com distribuição gama incompleta, permitindo o uso do SPI no monitoramento das condições de seca meteorológica. Através de análises de autocorrelação e correlação-cruzada, observou-se que a principal característica das séries do SPI é sua grande variabilidade espaço-temporal, a qual indica que em uma mesma região meses extremamente secos podem ser precedidos e/ou seguidos de meses úmidos ou normais, e que distintos casos de seca podem ocorrer de forma aleatória, entre as localidades e em um mesmo período.The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI is one of the most widely used methods for quantification of drought conditions. In order to apply the SPI model to the climate conditions of the State of Espírito Santo, Brazil, the study evaluated the adjustment of the monthly rainfall time series to the gamma distribution in five regions of this State. Using the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test and the Chi-Square test, it was possible to verify that the monthly rainfall time series, used in this study, can be fitted to the gamma distribution. On this sense, the SPI model can be applied for monitoring the meteorological drought conditions in the State of Espírito Santo. Using the autocorrelation function and the cross-correlation function, it was possible to verify that the main characteristic of the monthly SPI series is

  18. Estimating drought risk across Europe from reported drought impacts, hazard indicators and vulnerability factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blauhut, V.; Stahl, K.; Stagge, J. H.; Tallaksen, L. M.; De Stefano, L.; Vogt, J.

    2015-12-01

    Drought is one of the most costly natural hazards in Europe. Due to its complexity, drought risk, the combination of the natural hazard and societal vulnerability, is difficult to define and challenging to detect and predict, as the impacts of drought are very diverse, covering the breadth of socioeconomic and environmental systems. Pan-European maps of drought risk could inform the elaboration of guidelines and policies to address its documented severity and impact across borders. This work (1) tests the capability of commonly applied hazard indicators and vulnerability factors to predict annual drought impact occurrence for different sectors and macro regions in Europe and (2) combines information on past drought impacts, drought hazard indicators, and vulnerability factors into estimates of drought risk at the pan-European scale. This "hybrid approach" bridges the gap between traditional vulnerability assessment and probabilistic impact forecast in a statistical modelling framework. Multivariable logistic regression was applied to predict the likelihood of impact occurrence on an annual basis for particular impact categories and European macro regions. The results indicate sector- and macro region specific sensitivities of hazard indicators, with the Standardised Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index for a twelve month aggregation period (SPEI-12) as the overall best hazard predictor. Vulnerability factors have only limited ability to predict drought impacts as single predictor, with information about landuse and water resources as best vulnerability-based predictors. (3) The application of the "hybrid approach" revealed strong regional (NUTS combo level) and sector specific differences in drought risk across Europe. The majority of best predictor combinations rely on a combination of SPEI for shorter and longer aggregation periods, and a combination of information on landuse and water resources. The added value of integrating regional vulnerability information

  19. Investigation of hydrological drought using Cumulative Standardized ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    ever, making the transition from crisis management to risk management to manage droughts, is still dif- ficult in most countries of the region and therefore, much more needs to be done to understand and address the risks associated with drought (Hamdy. 2004). Climate models project increased aridity in the. 21st century ...

  20. Global integrated drought monitoring and prediction system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hao, Zengchao; AghaKouchak, Amir; Nakhjiri, Navid; Farahmand, Alireza

    2014-01-01

    Drought is by far the most costly natural disaster that can lead to widespread impacts, including water and food crises. Here we present data sets available from the Global Integrated Drought Monitoring and Prediction System (GIDMaPS), which provides drought information based on multiple drought indicators. The system provides meteorological and agricultural drought information based on multiple satellite-, and model-based precipitation and soil moisture data sets. GIDMaPS includes a near real-time monitoring component and a seasonal probabilistic prediction module. The data sets include historical drought severity data from the monitoring component, and probabilistic seasonal forecasts from the prediction module. The probabilistic forecasts provide essential information for early warning, taking preventive measures, and planning mitigation strategies. GIDMaPS data sets are a significant extension to current capabilities and data sets for global drought assessment and early warning. The presented data sets would be instrumental in reducing drought impacts especially in developing countries. Our results indicate that GIDMaPS data sets reliably captured several major droughts from across the globe. PMID:25977759

  1. Global integrated drought monitoring and prediction system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hao, Zengchao; AghaKouchak, Amir; Nakhjiri, Navid; Farahmand, Alireza

    2014-01-01

    Drought is by far the most costly natural disaster that can lead to widespread impacts, including water and food crises. Here we present data sets available from the Global Integrated Drought Monitoring and Prediction System (GIDMaPS), which provides drought information based on multiple drought indicators. The system provides meteorological and agricultural drought information based on multiple satellite-, and model-based precipitation and soil moisture data sets. GIDMaPS includes a near real-time monitoring component and a seasonal probabilistic prediction module. The data sets include historical drought severity data from the monitoring component, and probabilistic seasonal forecasts from the prediction module. The probabilistic forecasts provide essential information for early warning, taking preventive measures, and planning mitigation strategies. GIDMaPS data sets are a significant extension to current capabilities and data sets for global drought assessment and early warning. The presented data sets would be instrumental in reducing drought impacts especially in developing countries. Our results indicate that GIDMaPS data sets reliably captured several major droughts from across the globe.

  2. Confronting a Process-based Model of Temperate Tree Transpiration with Data from Forests in Central Panama Exposed to Drought

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ewers, B. E.; Bretfeld, M.; Millar, D.; Hall, J. S.; Beverly, D.; Hall, J. S.; Ogden, F. L.; Mackay, D. S.

    2016-12-01

    Process-based models of tree impacts on the hydrologic cycle must include not only plant hydraulic limitations but also photosynthetic controls because plants lose water to gain carbon. The Terrestrial Regional Ecosystem Exchange Simulator (TREES) is one such model. TREES includes a Bayesian model-data fusion approach that provides rigorous tests of patterns in tree transpiration data against biophysical processes in the model. TREES has been extensively tested against many temperate tree data sets including those experiencing severe and lethal drought. We test TREES against data from sap flow-scaled transpiration in 76 tropical trees (representing 42 different species) in secondary forests of three different ages (8, 25, and 80+ years) located in the Panama Canal Watershed. These data were collected during the third driest El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event on record in Panama during 2015/2016. Tree transpiration response to vapor pressure deficit and solar radiation was the same in the two older forests, but showed an additional response to limited soil moisture in the youngest forest. Volumetric water content at 30 and 50 cm depths was 8% lower in the 8 year old forest than in the 80+ year old forest. TREES could not simulate this difference in soil moisture without increasing simulated root area. TREES simulations were improved by including light response curves of leaf photosynthesis, root vulnerability to cavitation and canopy position impacts on light. TREES was able to simulate the anisohydric (loose stomatal regulation of leaf water potential) and isohydric (tight stomatal regulation) of the 73 trees species a priori indicating that species level information is not required. Analyses of posterior probability distributions indicates TREES model predictions of individual tree transpiration would likely be improved with more detailed root and soil moisture in all forest ages data with the most improvement likely in the 8 year old forest. Our results

  3. A rate equation model of stomatal responses to vapour pressure deficit and drought

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shanahan ST

    2002-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Stomata respond to vapour pressure deficit (D – when D increases, stomata begin to close. Closure is the result of a decline in guard cell turgor, but the link between D and turgor is poorly understood. We describe a model for stomatal responses to increasing D based upon cellular water relations. The model also incorporates impacts of increasing levels of water stress upon stomatal responses to increasing D. Results The model successfully mimics the three phases of stomatal responses to D and also reproduces the impact of increasing plant water deficit upon stomatal responses to increasing D. As water stress developed, stomata regulated transpiration at ever decreasing values of D. Thus, stomatal sensitivity to D increased with increasing water stress. Predictions from the model concerning the impact of changes in cuticular transpiration upon stomatal responses to increasing D are shown to conform to experimental data. Sensitivity analyses of stomatal responses to various parameters of the model show that leaf thickness, the fraction of leaf volume that is air-space, and the fraction of mesophyll cell wall in contact with air have little impact upon behaviour of the model. In contrast, changes in cuticular conductance and membrane hydraulic conductivity have significant impacts upon model behaviour. Conclusion Cuticular transpiration is an important feature of stomatal responses to D and is the cause of the 3 phase response to D. Feed-forward behaviour of stomata does not explain stomatal responses to D as feedback, involving water loss from guard cells, can explain these responses.

  4. Not all droughts are created equal: The impacts of interannual drought pattern and magnitude on grassland carbon cycling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoover, David L.; Rogers, Brendan M.

    2016-01-01

    Climate extremes, such as drought, may have immediate and potentially prolonged effects on carbon cycling. Grasslands store approximately one-third of all terrestrial carbon and may become carbon sources during droughts. However, the magnitude and duration of drought-induced disruptions to the carbon cycle, as well as the mechanisms responsible, remain poorly understood. Over the next century, global climate models predict an increase in two types of drought: chronic but subtle ‘press-droughts’, and shorter term but extreme ‘pulse-droughts’. Much of our current understanding of the ecological impacts of drought comes from experimental rainfall manipulations. These studies have been highly valuable, but are often short term and rarely quantify carbon feedbacks. To address this knowledge gap, we used the Community Land Model 4.0 to examine the individual and interactive effects of pulse- and press-droughts on carbon cycling in a mesic grassland of the US Great Plains. A series of modeling experiments were imposed by varying drought magnitude (precipitation amount) and interannual pattern (press- vs. pulse-droughts) to examine the effects on carbon storage and cycling at annual to century timescales. We present three main findings. First, a single-year pulse-drought had immediate and prolonged effects on carbon storage due to differential sensitivities of ecosystem respiration and gross primary production. Second, short-term pulse-droughts caused greater carbon loss than chronic press-droughts when total precipitation reductions over a 20-year period were equivalent. Third, combining pulse- and press-droughts had intermediate effects on carbon loss compared to the independent drought types, except at high drought levels. Overall, these results suggest that interannual drought pattern may be as important for carbon dynamics as drought magnitude and that extreme droughts may have long-lasting carbon feedbacks in grassland ecosystems.

  5. Advancing Drought Understanding, Monitoring and Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mariotti, Annarita; Schubert, Siegfried D.; Mo, Kingtse; Peters-Lidard, Christa; Wood, Andy; Pulwarty, Roger; Huang, Jin; Barrie, Dan

    2013-01-01

    Having the capacity to monitor droughts in near-real time and providing accurate drought prediction from weeks to seasons in advance can greatly reduce the severity of social and economic damage caused by drought, a leading natural hazard for North America. The congressional mandate to establish the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS; Public Law 109-430) in 2006 was a major impulse to develop, integrate, and provide drought information to meet the challenges posed by this hazard. Significant progress has been made on many fronts. On the research front, efforts by the broad scientific community have resulted in improved understanding of North American droughts and improved monitoring and forecasting tools. We now have a better understanding of the droughts of the twentieth century including the 1930s "Dust Bowl"; we have developed a broader array of tools and datasets that enhance the official North American Drought Monitor based on different methodologies such as state-of-the-art land surface modeling (e.g., the North American Land Data Assimilation System) and remote sensing (e.g., the evaporative stress index) to better characterize the occurrence and severity of drought in its multiple manifestations. In addition, we have new tools for drought prediction [including the new National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System, version 2, for operational prediction and an experimental National Multimodel Ensemble] and have explored diverse methodologies including ensemble hydrologic prediction approaches. Broad NIDIS-inspired progress is influencing the development of a Global Drought Information System (GDIS) under the auspices of the World Climate Research Program. Despite these advances, current drought monitoring and forecasting capabilities still fall short of users' needs, especially the need for skillful and reliable drought forecasts at regional and local scales. To tackle this outstanding challenging problem

  6. Improving our knowledge of drought-induced forest mortality through experiments, observations, and modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nate G. McDowell; Michael G. Ryan; Melanie J. B. Zeppel; David T. Tissue

    2013-01-01

    Regional and continental-scale forest and woodland mortality appears to be accelerating over recent decades (Allen et al., 2010; Peng et al., 2011). These contemporary increases in mortality are just the beginning, as temperature is rising rapidly and global models predict a large decline in the strength of the terrestrial carbon sink over the next century (Arora et al...

  7. Wildfire potential evaluation during a drought event with a regional climate model and NDVI

    Science.gov (United States)

    Y. Liu; J. Stanturf; S. Goodrick

    2010-01-01

    Regional climate modeling is a technique for simulating high-resolution physical processes in the atmosphere, soil and vegetation. It can be used to evaluate wildfire potential by either providing meteorological conditions for computation of fire indices or predicting soil moisture as a direct measure of fire potential. This study examines these roles using a regional...

  8. Drought risk assessment of food security in a regional climate model perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calmanti, Sandro; Yohannes Gelassie, Tinebeb; Syroka, Joanna; Nikulin, Grigory; Jones, Colin

    2013-04-01

    We test the potential added value of high-resolution dynamical downscalings of climate simulations for impact studies in the sector of food-security. We use the risk assessment platform - Africa RiskView (ARV) - developed by the office of Climate and Disaster Risk Solutions of WFP as the underlying impact model. As a test, retrospective case, we consider the ERA-Interim reanalysis and three downscalings performed by Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI) at three different horizontal resolutions (44Km, 22Km and 11 km). Aim is to compare the outcome of the impact model under different climate forcings with a unique historical record of humanitarian interventions maintained by WFP. The analysis shows a consistent picture in which coarser donwscalings imply a downgrading of the predicting skills of the impact model with respect to the driving glabal scale data. Some skill is recovered at intermediate horizontal resolution and finally the 11-Km resolution downscaling shows a predicting skill that is in line with that of the rainfall observations is routinely adopted at WFP for monitoring and early warning. Building on the calibration described above, we perform a climate change stress test using model simulation included in the CORDEX database.

  9. Integrating ecophysiology and forest landscape models to improve projections of drought effects under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eric J. Gustafson; Arjan M.G. De Bruijn; Robert E. Pangle; Jean-Marc Limousin; Nate G. McDowell; William T. Pockman; Brian R. Sturtevant; Jordan D. Muss; Mark E. Kubiske

    2015-01-01

    Fundamental drivers of ecosystem processes such as temperature and precipitation are rapidly changing and creating novel environmental conditions. Forest landscape models (FLM) are used by managers and policy-makers to make projections of future ecosystem dynamics under alternative management or policy options, but the links between the fundamental drivers and...

  10. Parameter optimisation for a better representation of drought by LSMs: inverse modelling vs. sequential data assimilation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dewaele, Hélène; Munier, Simon; Albergel, Clément; Planque, Carole; Laanaia, Nabil; Carrer, Dominique; Calvet, Jean-Christophe

    2017-09-01

    Soil maximum available water content (MaxAWC) is a key parameter in land surface models (LSMs). However, being difficult to measure, this parameter is usually uncertain. This study assesses the feasibility of using a 15-year (1999-2013) time series of satellite-derived low-resolution observations of leaf area index (LAI) to estimate MaxAWC for rainfed croplands over France. LAI interannual variability is simulated using the CO2-responsive version of the Interactions between Soil, Biosphere and Atmosphere (ISBA) LSM for various values of MaxAWC. Optimal value is then selected by using (1) a simple inverse modelling technique, comparing simulated and observed LAI and (2) a more complex method consisting in integrating observed LAI in ISBA through a land data assimilation system (LDAS) and minimising LAI analysis increments. The evaluation of the MaxAWC estimates from both methods is done using simulated annual maximum above-ground biomass (Bag) and straw cereal grain yield (GY) values from the Agreste French agricultural statistics portal, for 45 administrative units presenting a high proportion of straw cereals. Significant correlations (p value administrative units for the inverse modelling and LDAS tuning methods, respectively. It is found that the LDAS tuning experiment gives more realistic values of MaxAWC and maximum Bag than the inverse modelling experiment. Using undisaggregated LAI observations leads to an underestimation of MaxAWC and maximum Bag in both experiments. Median annual maximum values of disaggregated LAI observations are found to correlate very well with MaxAWC.

  11. Parameter optimisation for a better representation of drought by LSMs: inverse modelling vs. sequential data assimilation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Dewaele

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Soil maximum available water content (MaxAWC is a key parameter in land surface models (LSMs. However, being difficult to measure, this parameter is usually uncertain. This study assesses the feasibility of using a 15-year (1999–2013 time series of satellite-derived low-resolution observations of leaf area index (LAI to estimate MaxAWC for rainfed croplands over France. LAI interannual variability is simulated using the CO2-responsive version of the Interactions between Soil, Biosphere and Atmosphere (ISBA LSM for various values of MaxAWC. Optimal value is then selected by using (1 a simple inverse modelling technique, comparing simulated and observed LAI and (2 a more complex method consisting in integrating observed LAI in ISBA through a land data assimilation system (LDAS and minimising LAI analysis increments. The evaluation of the MaxAWC estimates from both methods is done using simulated annual maximum above-ground biomass (Bag and straw cereal grain yield (GY values from the Agreste French agricultural statistics portal, for 45 administrative units presenting a high proportion of straw cereals. Significant correlations (p value  <  0.01 between Bag and GY are found for up to 36 and 53 % of the administrative units for the inverse modelling and LDAS tuning methods, respectively. It is found that the LDAS tuning experiment gives more realistic values of MaxAWC and maximum Bag than the inverse modelling experiment. Using undisaggregated LAI observations leads to an underestimation of MaxAWC and maximum Bag in both experiments. Median annual maximum values of disaggregated LAI observations are found to correlate very well with MaxAWC.

  12. Dealing with droughts

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Erdbrink, C.D.; van Beek, Eelco; van Os, A.G.

    2008-01-01

    As mentioned in the key-note drought issues are expected to increase in importance as a result of climate change. Droughts are often associated with desert like conditions in Africa but also in Europe droughts occur. Given the socio-economic values involved and the fact that measures to prevent

  13. Modelling the ecological niche of hookworm in Brazil based on climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mudenda, Ntombi B; Malone, John B; Kearney, Michael T; Mischler, Paula D; Nieto, Prixia del Mar; McCarroll, Jennifer C; Vounatsou, Penelope

    2012-09-01

    The distribution of hookworm in schistosomiasis-endemic areas in Brazil was mapped based on climate suitability. Known biological requirements of hookworm were fitted to data in a monthly long-term normal climate grid (18 x 18 km) using geographical information systems. Hookworm risk models were produced using the growing degree day (GDD) water budget (WB) concept. A moisture-adjusted model (MA-GDD) was developed based on accumulation of monthly temperatures above a base temperature of 15 °C (below which there is no lifecycle progression of Necator americanus) conditional on concurrent monthly values (rain/potential, evapotranspiration) of over 0.4. A second model, designated the gradient index, was calculated based on the monthly accumulation of the product of GDD and monthly WB values (GDD x WB). Both parameters had a significant positive correlation to hookworm prevalence. In the northeastern part of Brazil (the Caatinga), low hookworm prevalence was due to low soil moisture content, while the low prevalence in southern Brazil was related to low mean monthly temperatures. Both environmental temperature and soil moisture content were found to be important parameters for predicting the prevalence of N. americanus.

  14. Understanding and seasonal forecasting of hydrological drought in the Anthropocene

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuan, Xing; Zhang, Miao; Wang, Linying; Zhou, Tian

    2017-11-01

    Hydrological drought is not only caused by natural hydroclimate variability but can also be directly altered by human interventions including reservoir operation, irrigation, groundwater exploitation, etc. Understanding and forecasting of hydrological drought in the Anthropocene are grand challenges due to complicated interactions among climate, hydrology and humans. In this paper, five decades (1961-2010) of naturalized and observed streamflow datasets are used to investigate hydrological drought characteristics in a heavily managed river basin, the Yellow River basin in north China. Human interventions decrease the correlation between hydrological and meteorological droughts, and make the hydrological drought respond to longer timescales of meteorological drought. Due to large water consumptions in the middle and lower reaches, there are 118-262 % increases in the hydrological drought frequency, up to 8-fold increases in the drought severity, 21-99 % increases in the drought duration and the drought onset is earlier. The non-stationarity due to anthropogenic climate change and human water use basically decreases the correlation between meteorological and hydrological droughts and reduces the effect of human interventions on hydrological drought frequency while increasing the effect on drought duration and severity. A set of 29-year (1982-2010) hindcasts from an established seasonal hydrological forecasting system are used to assess the forecast skill of hydrological drought. In the naturalized condition, the climate-model-based approach outperforms the climatology method in predicting the 2001 severe hydrological drought event. Based on the 29-year hindcasts, the former method has a Brier skill score of 11-26 % against the latter for the probabilistic hydrological drought forecasting. In the Anthropocene, the skill for both approaches increases due to the dominant influence of human interventions that have been implicitly incorporated by the hydrological post

  15. Influence of mathematical and physical background of drought indices on their complementarity and drought recognition ability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frank, Anna; Armenski, Tanja; Gocic, Milan; Popov, Srdjan; Popovic, Ljiljana; Trajkovic, Slavisa

    2017-09-01

    The aim of this study is to test how effective and physically correct are the mathematical approaches of operational indices used by relevant National Agencies across the globe. To do so, the following indices were analysed Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) -1, 3, 6, 12 and 24, Standardized Precipitation - Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) - 1, 3, 6, 12 and 24, Effective Drought Index (EDI) and Index of Drying Efficiency of Air (IDEA). To make regions more comparable to each other and follow the spatial development of drought SPI index was advised by World Meteorological Organisation to be used widely by official meteorological services. The SPI and SPEI are used for Drought Early Warning in the USA, National Drought Mitigation Center and NASA, and in the EU by the European Drought Centre (EDC) and in the Balkan Region by National Meteorological Agencies. The EDI Index has wide application in Asia. In this paper four different issues were investigated: 1) how the mathematical method used in a drought indicator's computation influence drought indices' (DI) comparative analyses; 2) the sensitivity of the DIs on any change of the length of observational period; 3) similarities between the DIs time series; 4) and how accurate DIs are when compared to historical drought records. Results suggest that it is necessary to apply a few crucial changes in the Drought Monitoring and Early Warning Systems: 1) reconsider use of SPI and SPEI family indices as a measure of quality of other indices; and for Drought Early Recognition Programs 2) switch to DIs with a solid physical background, such as EDI; 3) Adopt solid physics for modelling drought processes and define the physical measure of drought, e.g. EDI and IDEA indices; 4) investigate further the IDEA index, which, supported by our study as well, is valuable for simulation of a drought process.

  16. Hybrid Geoid Model: Theory and Application in Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arana, Daniel; Camargo, Paulo O; Guimarães, Gabriel N

    2017-01-01

    Determination of the ellipsoidal height by Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) is becoming better known and used for purposes of leveling with the aid of geoid models. However, the disadvantage of this method is the quality of the geoid models, which degrade heights and limit the application of the method. In order to provide better quality in transforming height using GNSS leveling, this research aims to develop a hybridization methodology of gravimetric geoid models EGM08, MAPGEO2015 and GEOIDSP2014 for the State of São Paulo, providing more consistent models with GNSS technology. Radial Basis Function (RBF) neural networks were used to obtain the corrector surface, based on differences between geoid model undulations and the undulations obtained by GNSS tracking in benchmarks. The experiments showed that the most suitable interpolation for correction modeling is the linear RBF. Checkpoints indicate that the geoid hybrid models feature root mean square deviation ± 0.107, ± 0.104 and ± 0.098 m, respectively. The results shows an improvement of 30 to 40% in consistencies compared with the gravimetric geoids, providing users with better quality in transformation of geometric to orthometric heights.

  17. Hybrid Geoid Model: Theory and Application in Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    DANIEL ARANA

    Full Text Available Determination of the ellipsoidal height by Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS is becoming better known and used for purposes of leveling with the aid of geoid models. However, the disadvantage of this method is the quality of the geoid models, which degrade heights and limit the application of the method. In order to provide better quality in transforming height using GNSS leveling, this research aims to develop a hybridization methodology of gravimetric geoid models EGM08, MAPGEO2015 and GEOIDSP2014 for the State of São Paulo, providing more consistent models with GNSS technology. Radial Basis Function (RBF neural networks were used to obtain the corrector surface, based on differences between geoid model undulations and the undulations obtained by GNSS tracking in benchmarks. The experiments showed that the most suitable interpolation for correction modeling is the linear RBF. Checkpoints indicate that the geoid hybrid models feature root mean square deviation ± 0.107, ± 0.104 and ± 0.098 m, respectively. The results shows an improvement of 30 to 40% in consistencies compared with the gravimetric geoids, providing users with better quality in transformation of geometric to orthometric heights.

  18. Development of an operational drought forecasting system using couples models for groundwater, surface water and unsaturated zone

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Berendrecht, W.; Weerts, A.; Veldhuizen, A.A.; Kroon, T.

    2010-01-01

    During periods of drought the National Coordinating Committee for Water Distribution of the Netherlands has to decide how the available surface water is used and allocated between different functions. To support decision making, real-time information is needed about the availability of surface

  19. Nonsignificant change of drought in China during 1982-2011 and application of PDSI in monitoring interannual variations of agriculture drought area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, Hao

    2017-04-01

    Inspired by concerns of the effects of a warming climate, drought variation and its impacts have gained much attention in China. Arguments about China's drought persist and little work has addressed the relationship between drought index and agricultural drought from a perspective of drought area. Based on a newly revised self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) model driven with ARTS E0 [PDSI_ARTS; Yan et al., 2014], spatial and temporal variations of drought were analyzed for 1982-2011 in China. The results indicate that there was nonsignificant change of drought over this interval but with an extreme drought event happened in 2000-2001. However, using air temperature (Ta)-based Thornthwaite potential evaporation (EP_Th) and Penman-Monteith potential evaporation (EP_PM) to drive the PDSI model, their corresponding PDSI_Th and PDSI_PM all gave a significant drying trend for 1982-2011. This suggests that PDSI model was sensitive to EP parameterization in China. Annual drought-covered area from agriculture survey was initially adopted to evaluate PDSI's capacity in monitoring agriculture drought area in China. The results indicate that PDSI_ARTS drought area (defined as PDSI_ARTS < -0.5) correlated well with the agriculture drought-covered area and PDSI_ARTS successfully detected the extreme agriculture drought in 2000-2001 for 1982-2011, while PDSI_Th and PDSI_PM drought area had no relationship with the agriculture drought-covered area and overestimated the uptrend of agriculture drought, which contrasted with agriculture drought survey. Overall, PDSI_ARTS model had a potential to monitor interannual variations of agricultural drought area and was preferred to EP_Th and EP_PM-driven PDSI models in drought research of China.

  20. Diatom-inferred depth models in 8 Canadian boreal lakes: inferred changes in the benthic:planktonic depth boundary and implications for assessment of past droughts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laird, Kathleen R.; Kingsbury, Melanie V.; Lewis, C. F. Michael; Cumming, Brian F.

    2011-05-01

    Assessment of past drought in boreal regions, a region predicted to be strongly affected by climate warming, can provide insights into future availability of water. However, limited instrumental data and paleoclimatic data are available for this assessment. To address this lack of data in the boreal region of northwest Ontario, a regional study of lakes in the Winnipeg River Drainage Basin was initiated. Diatom-inferred (D-I) depth models were developed based on surface samples collected along a depth gradient within 8 small boreal lakes. Weighted-averaging and modern analog approaches provided robust within-lake depth models for each of the study lakes, with bootstrapped r2 values ranging from 0.90 to 0.98, and root-mean-squared-errors of prediction (RMSEP) between 1.1 and 2.5 m. Large differences in the estimated depth optima for three representative, but common diatom species across our 8 study lakes suggested that within-lake calibration datasets are more appropriate for inferring past drought based in depth models than a regional multi-lake calibration dataset, and that light and related variables are controlling factors governing the maximum depth of benthic taxa. A down-core application of the D-I depth models on a near-shore core from Meekin Lake, retrieved near the present-day ecotone between the benthic and planktonic diatom assemblages indicated highly similar trends in inferred depth ( r = 0.96). The models have significant correlations with other metrics of changes in depth including diatom species richness ( r = 0.74-0.78) and evenness ( r = 0.76-0.8), thereby allowing a check on the strength and direction of the depth inferences down-core. Near-shore cores located near the benthic:planktonic transition is a sensitive region that can provide estimates of past droughts in lakes where such inferences have been difficult to estimate.

  1. Sugarcane Water Sustainability Assessment Through the Indicators Extracted from Spatial Models: Case Study of Sugarcane Expansion Hotspots in Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferraz, R. P.; Simoes, M.; Dubreuil, V.

    2012-12-01

    The CanaSat project data from INPE (2010) has evidenced the trend of sugarcane expansion into savanna areas in the Midwest region of Brazil that has a great potential for the sugarcane development, in terms of topography and suitable soils, according to Sugarcane Agroecological Zoning (EMBRAPA, 2009). However, in this region the climatic water availability has limitations, once the climate is marked by drought season with a strong water deficiency due to reduction of rainfall (SILVA et al. 2008). There may be serious risks to the sugarcane culture conducted in dryland crop system without any support from additional irrigation. Silva et al. (2008) state that, for the expansion of sugarcane cultivation in the Cerrado region will be necessary supplemental irrigation with 80 to 120 mm of water applied after cutting or planting. In the Brazilian Midwest the sugarcane agroindustry expansion is technically viable, but for the sustainable development of this activity it is necessary an adequate planning based on knowledge about water demand and availability. The aim of this study was to conduct an assessment of the potential water sustainability for the sugarcane cultivation in four microregions in Goiás State, Brazil, through the use of indicators proposed in Indicators System of Sugarcane Water Sustainability Assessment (Ferraz, 2012), that was thought to subsidize the public policies proposals and sectoral planning in strategic level by means of indicators that enable to perform diagnostic and prognostic analysis. These indicators are direct and relevant indexes obtained from data extracted through geoprocessing techniques from integration of many spatial models. The used indicators were: (i) Three indexes expressing the land favorability for sugarcane development conducted in dryland or irrigation system through the establishment of the ratio between the sugarcane suitable area for each different system and the total area of territorial unit of analysis (micro

  2. Functional Genomics of Drought Tolerance in Bioenergy Crops

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yin, Hengfu [ORNL; Chen, Rick [ORNL; Yang, Jun [ORNL; Weston, David [ORNL; Chen, Jay [ORNL; Muchero, Wellington [ORNL; Ye, Ning [ORNL; Tschaplinski, Timothy J [ORNL; Wullschleger, Stan D [ORNL; Cheng, Zong-Ming [ORNL; Tuskan, Gerald A [ORNL; Yang, Xiaohan [ORNL

    2014-01-01

    With the predicted trends in climate change, drought will increasingly impose a grand challenge to biomass production. Most of the bioenergy crops have some degree of drought susceptibility with low water-use efficiency (WUE). It is imperative to improve drought tolerance and WUE in bioenergy crops for sustainable biomass production in arid and semi-arid regions with minimal water input. Genetics and functional genomics can play a critical role in generating knowledge to inform and aid genetic improvement of drought tolerance in bioenergy crops. The molecular aspect of drought response has been extensively investigated in model plants like Arabidopsis, yet our understanding of the molecular mechanisms underlying drought tolerance in bioenergy crops are limited. Crops exhibit various responses to drought stress depending on species and genotype. A rational strategy for studying drought tolerance in bioenergy crops is to translate the knowledge from model plants and pinpoint the unique features associated with individual species and genotypes. In this review, we summarize the general knowledge about drought responsive pathways in plants, with a focus on the identification of commonality and specialty in drought responsive mechanisms among different species and/or genotypes. We describe the genomic resources developed for bioenergy crops and discuss genetic and epigenetic regulation of drought responses. We also examine comparative and evolutionary genomics to leverage the ever-increasing genomics resources and provide new insights beyond what has been known from studies on individual species. Finally, we outline future exploration of drought tolerance using the emerging new technologies.

  3. The Quality of Home Environment in Brazil: An Ecological Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Oliveira, Ebenezer A.; Barros, Fernando C.; Anselmi, Luciana D. da Silva; Piccinini, Cesar A.

    2006-01-01

    Based on Bronfenbrenner's (1999) ecological perspective, a longitudinal, prospective model of individual differences in the quality of home environment (Home Observation for Measurement of the Environment--HOME) was tested in a sample of 179 Brazilian children and their families. Perinatal measures of family socioeconomic status (SES) and child…

  4. Phenotyping common beans for adaptation to drought

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stephen eBeebe

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Common beans (Phaseolus vulgaris L. originated in the New World and are the grain legume of greatest production for direct human consumption. Common bean production is subject to frequent droughts in highland Mexico, in the Pacific coast of Central America, in northeast Brazil, and in eastern and southern Africa from Ethiopia to South Africa. This article reviews efforts to improve common bean for drought tolerance, referring to genetic diversity for drought response, the physiology of of drought tolerance mechanisms, and breeding strategies. Different races of common bean respond differently to drought, with race Durango of highland Mexico being a major source of genes. Sister species of P. vulgaris likewise have unique traits, especially P. acutifolius which is well adapted to dryland conditions. Diverse sources of tolerance may have different mechanisms of plant response, implying the need for different methods of phenotyping to recognize the relevant traits. Practical considerations of field management are discussed including: trial planning; water management; and field preparation.

  5. Characteristics and Error Modeling of GPM Satellite Rainfall Estimates over Different Regions of Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oliveira, R. A. J.; Vila, D. A.; Maggioni, V.; Morales, C. A.

    2015-12-01

    This study aims to investigate, over the different regions of Brazil, the error characteristics and uncertainties (random and systematic errors components) in satellite-based precipitation estimates by comparing the Goddard Profiling Algorithm (GPROF), through different sensors from GPM database (such as GMI, TMI, SSMI/S, AMSR2, MHS, among others), and Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM (IMERG) algorithms. The analyses are made with other ground (S- and X-band dual polarization weather radar) and space (e.g., TRMM-PR and GPM-DPR [at Ku-band] active radars) based rainfall estimates as references at instantaneous timescales and respecting their temporal limitations. The Precipitation Uncertainties for Satellite Hydrology (PUSH) framework is used for the analysis and uncertainties characterization and error modeling. Specially, this study are focused on specific regions of Brazil, where the campaigns of the CHUVA project occurred (CHUVA/GoAmazon [IOP1 and 2] in Amazon and over southern Brazil where the S-band dual polarization radars (e.g., the FCTH radar) are located.

  6. Kidney transplantation process in Brazil represented in business process modeling notation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peres Penteado, A; Molina Cohrs, F; Diniz Hummel, A; Erbs, J; Maciel, R F; Feijó Ortolani, C L; de Aguiar Roza, B; Torres Pisa, I

    2015-05-01

    Kidney transplantation is considered to be the best treatment for people with chronic kidney failure, because it improves the patients' quality of life and increases their length of survival compared with patients undergoing dialysis. The kidney transplantation process in Brazil is defined through laws, decrees, ordinances, and resolutions, but there is no visual representation of this process. The aim of this study was to analyze official documents to construct a representation of the kidney transplantation process in Brazil with the use of business process modeling notation (BPMN). The methodology for this study was based on an exploratory observational study, document analysis, and construction of process diagrams with the use of BPMN. Two rounds of validations by specialists were conducted. The result includes the kidney transplantation process in Brazil representation with the use of BPMN. We analyzed 2 digital documents that resulted in 2 processes with 45 total of activities and events, 6 organizations involved, and 6 different stages of the process. The constructed representation makes it easier to understand the rules for the business of kidney transplantation and can be used by the health care professionals involved in the various activities within this process. Construction of a representation with language appropriate for the Brazilian lay public is underway. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. Droughts in the Czech Lands: Past, Present and Future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brázdil, Rudolf; Trnka, Miroslav

    2015-04-01

    The presentation highlights main results of the InterDrought project (2013-2015), which includes several Czech universities and research institutes, and also shows overview of multidisciplinary scientific monograph on drought. The basic data sources consisting of instrumental, documentary, tree-ring and satellite data are presented. Selected drought indices (SPI, SPEI, Z-index and PDSI) calculated from homogenised Czech temperature and precipitation series are used to describe spatial and temporal variability of droughts in the Czech Lands for the 1804-2010 period including selection of drought extreme episodes and their detail description with respect to meteorological and synoptic patterns and impacts as well. Analysis of droughts prior 1804 is based on documentary data and oak tree-ring widths used for compilation of 500-year Czech drought chronology. The occurrence of extreme droughts is further analysed with respect to sea-level pressure patterns in the Atlantic-European area, climate forcings and changes in land-use. Examples of agricultural and hydrological droughts are mentioned. High resolution soil moisture models are used to estimate drought trends in last five decades as well as estimate future development of droughts in the Czech Republic. Overview represented by this paper will be complemented by several individual detail studies of other InterDrought Team members.

  8. Update and extension of the Brazil SimSmoke model to estimate the health impact of cigarette smoking by pregnant women in Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    André Salem Szklo

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract: A previous application of the Brazil SimSmoke tobacco control policy simulation model was used to show the effect of policies implemented between 1989 and 2010 on smoking-attributable deaths (SADs. In this study, we updated and further validated the Brazil SimSmoke model to incorporate policies implemented since 2011 (e.g., a new tax structure with the purpose of increasing revenues/real prices. In addition, we extended the model to estimate smoking-attributable maternal and child health outcomes (MCHOs, such as placenta praevia, placental abruption, preterm birth, low birth weight, and sudden infant death syndrome, to show the role of tobacco control in achieving the Millennium Development Goals. Using data on population, births, smoking, policies, and prevalence of MCHOs, the model is used to assess the effect on both premature deaths and MCHOs of tobacco control policies implemented in Brazil in the last 25 years relative to a counterfactual of policies kept at 1989 levels. Smoking prevalence in Brazil has fallen by an additional 17% for males (16%-19% and 19% for females (14%-24% between 2011 and 2015. As a result of the policies implemented since 1989, 7.5 million (6.4-8.5 deaths among adults aged 18 years or older are projected to be averted by 2050. Current policies are also estimated to reduce a cumulative total of 0.9 million (0.4-2.4 adverse MCHOs by 2050. Our findings show the benefits of tobacco control in reducing both SADs and smoking-attributable MCHOs at population level. These benefits may be used to better inform policy makers in low and middle income countries about allocating resources towards tobacco control policies in this important area.

  9. Survival benefits of antiretroviral therapy in Brazil: a model-based analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luz, Paula M; Girouard, Michael P; Grinsztejn, Beatriz; Freedberg, Kenneth A; Veloso, Valdilea G; Losina, Elena; Struchiner, Claudio J; MacLean, Rachel L; Parker, Robert A; Paltiel, A David; Walensky, Rochelle P

    2016-01-01

    Objective In Brazil, universal provision of antiretroviral therapy (ART) has been guaranteed free of charge to eligible HIV-positive patients since December 1996. We sought to quantify the survival benefits of ART attributable to this programme. Methods We used a previously published microsimulation model of HIV disease and treatment (CEPAC-International) and data from Brazil to estimate life expectancy increase for HIV-positive patients initiating ART in Brazil. We divided the period of 1997 to 2014 into six eras reflecting increased drug regimen efficacy, regimen availability and era-specific mean CD4 count at ART initiation. Patients were simulated first without ART and then with ART. The 2014-censored and lifetime survival benefits attributable to ART in each era were calculated as the product of the number of patients initiating ART in a given era and the increase in life expectancy attributable to ART in that era. Results In total, we estimated that 598,741 individuals initiated ART. Projected life expectancy increased from 2.7, 3.3, 4.1, 4.9, 5.5 and 7.1 years without ART to 11.0, 17.5, 20.7, 23.0, 25.3, and 27.0 years with ART in Eras 1 through 6, respectively. Of the total projected lifetime survival benefit of 9.3 million life-years, 16% (or 1.5 million life-years) has been realized as of December 2014. Conclusions Provision of ART through a national programme has led to dramatic survival benefits in Brazil, the majority of which are still to be realized. Improvements in initial and subsequent ART regimens and higher CD4 counts at ART initiation have contributed to these increasing benefits. PMID:27029828

  10. Deep Sequencing of Suppression Subtractive Hybridisation Drought and Recovery Libraries of the Non-model Crop Trifolium repens L.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bisaga, Maciej; Lowe, Matthew; Hegarty, Matthew; Abberton, Michael; Ravagnani, Adriana

    2017-01-01

    White clover is a short-lived perennial whose persistence is greatly affected by abiotic stresses, particularly drought. The aim of this work was to characterize its molecular response to water deficit and recovery following re-hydration to identify targets for the breeding of tolerant varieties. We created a white clover reference transcriptome of 16,193 contigs by deep sequencing (mean base coverage 387x) four Suppression Subtractive Hybridization (SSH) libraries (a forward and a reverse library for each treatment) constructed from young leaf tissue of white clover at the onset of the response to drought and recovery. Reads from individual libraries were then mapped to the reference transcriptome and processed comparing expression level data. The pipeline generated four robust sets of transcripts induced and repressed in the leaves of plants subjected to water deficit stress (6,937 and 3,142, respectively) and following re-hydration (6,695 and 4,897, respectively). Semi-quantitative polymerase chain reaction was used to verify the expression pattern of 16 genes. The differentially expressed transcripts were functionally annotated and mapped to biological processes and pathways. In agreement with similar studies in other crops, the majority of transcripts up-regulated in response to drought belonged to metabolic processes, such as amino acid, carbohydrate, and lipid metabolism, while transcripts involved in photosynthesis, such as components of the photosystem and the biosynthesis of photosynthetic pigments, were up-regulated during recovery. The data also highlighted the role of raffinose family oligosaccharides (RFOs) and the possible delayed response of the flavonoid pathways in the initial response of white clover to water withdrawal. The work presented in this paper is to our knowledge the first large scale molecular analysis of the white clover response to drought stress and re-hydration. The data generated provide a valuable genomic resource for marker

  11. Drought limitations to leaf-level gas exchange: results from a model linking stomatal optimization and cohesion-tension theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kimberly A. Novick; Chelcy F. Miniat; James M. Vose

    2016-01-01

    We merge concepts from stomatal optimization theory and cohesion–tension theory to examine the dynamics of three mechanisms that are potentially limiting to leaf-level gas exchange in trees during drought: (1) a ‘demand limitation’ driven by an assumption of optimal stomatal functioning; (2) ‘hydraulic limitation’ of water movement from the roots to the leaves...

  12. Towards pan-European drought risk maps: quantifying the link between drought indices and reported drought impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blauhut, Veit; Gudmundsson, Lukas; Stahl, Kerstin

    2015-01-01

    Drought in Europe is a hazard with a wide range of transboundary, environmental and socio-economic impacts on various sectors including agriculture, energy production, public water supply and water quality. Despite the apparent importance of this natural hazard, observed pan-European drought impacts have not yet been quantitatively related to the most important climatological drivers to map drought risk on a continental scale. This contribution approaches the issue by quantitatively assessing the likelihood of drought impact occurrence as a function of the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index for four European macro regions using logistic regression. The resulting models allow mapping the sector-specific likelihood of drought impact occurrence for specific index levels. For the most severe drought conditions the maps suggest the highest risk of impact occurrence for ‘Water Quality’ in Maritime Europe, followed by ‘Agriculture & Livestock Farming’ in Western Mediterranean Europe and ‘Energy & Industry’ in Maritime Europe. Merely impacts on ‘Public Water Supply’ result in overall lower risk estimates. The work suggests that modeling and mapping for North- and Southeastern Europe requires further enhancement to the impact database in these regions. Such maps may become an essential component of drought risk management to foster resilience for this hazard at large scale.

  13. Hydro-Economic Modeling with Minimum Data Requirements: An Application to the São Francisco River Basin, Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Torres, M.; Maneta, M.; Vosti, S.; Wallender, W.; Howitt, R.

    2008-12-01

    Policymakers have been charged with the efficient, equitable, and sustainable use of water resources of the São Francisco River Basin (SFRB), Brazil, and also with the promotion of economic growth and the reduction of poverty within the basin. To date, policymakers lack scientific evidence on the potential consequences for growth, poverty alleviation or environmental sustainability of alternative uses of water resources. To address these key knowledge gaps, we have linked a hydrologic and an economic model of agriculture to investigate how economic decisions affect available water, and vice versa. More specifically, the models are used to predict the effects of the application of Brazilian federal surface water use policies on farmer's net revenues and on the hydrologic system. The Economic Model of Agriculture. A spatially explicit, farm-level model capable of accommodating a broad array of farm sizes and farm/farmer characteristics is developed and used to predict the effects of alternative water policies and neighbors' water use patterns on crop mix choice. A production function comprised of seven categories of non-water-related inputs used in agriculture (land, fertilizers, pesticides, seeds, hired labor, family labor and machinery) and four water-related inputs used in agriculture (applied water, irrigation labor, irrigation capital and energy) is estimated. The parameters emerging from this estimated production function are then introduced into a non-linear, net revenue maximization positive mathematical programming algorithm that is used for simulations. The Hydrological Model. MIKE Basin, a semi-distributed hydrology model, is used to calculate water budgets for the SFRB. MIKE Basin calculates discharge at selected nodes by accumulating runoff down the river network; it simulates reservoirs using stage-area-storage and downstream release rule curves. The data used to run the model are discharge to calculate local runoff, precipitation, reference ET, crop

  14. Knowledge management: Postgraduate Alternative Evaluation Model (MAPA in Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Deisy Cristina Corrêa Igarashi

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available The Brazilian stricto sensu postgraduate programs that include master and / or doctorate courses are evaluated by Coordination for the Improvement of Higher Education Personnel (CAPES - Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior. The evaluation method used by CAPES is recognized in national and international context. However, several elements of the evaluation method can be improved. For example: to consider programs diversity, heterogeneity and specificities; to reduce subjectivity and to explain how indicators are grouped into different dimensions to generate a final result, which is scoring level reached by a program. This study aims to analyze the evaluation process by CAPES, presenting questions, difficulties and objections raised by researchers. From the analysis, the study proposes an alternative evaluation model for postgraduate (MAPA - Modelo de Avaliação para Pós graduação Alternativo which incorporates fuzzy logic in result analysis to minimize limitations identified. The MAPA was applied in three postgraduate programs, allowing: (1 better understanding of procedures used for the evaluation, (2 identifying elements that need regulation, (3 characterization of indicators that generate local evaluation, (4 support in medium and long term planning.

  15. Forecasting of meteorological drought using Wavelet-ANFIS hybrid model for different time steps (case study: Southeastern part of east Azerbaijan province, Iran)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Shirmohammadi Chelan, Bagher; Moradi, Hamidreza; Moosavi, Vahid; Semiromi, Majid Taie; Zeinali, Ali

    2013-01-01

    Drought is accounted as one of the most natural hazards. Studying on drought is important for designing and managing of water resources systems. This research is carried out to evaluate the ability of Wavelet-ANN and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) techniques for meteorological drought

  16. How 21st century droughts affect food and environmental security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kogan, Felix

    The first 13th years of the 21st century has begun with a series of widespread, long and intensive droughts around the world. Extreme and severe-to-extreme intensity droughts covered 2-6% and 7-16% of the world land, respectively, affecting environment, economies and humans. These droughts reduced agricultural production, leading to food shortages, human health deterioration, poverty, regional disturbances, population migration and death. This presentation is a travelogue of the 21st century global and regional droughts during the warmest years of the past 100 years. These droughts were identified and monitored with the NOAA operational space technology, called Vegetation Health (VH), which has the longest period of observation and provide good data quality. The VH method was used for assessment of vegetation condition or health, including drought early detection and monitoring. The VH method is based on operational satellites data estimating both land surface greenness (NDVI) and thermal conditions. The 21st century droughts in the USA, Russia, Australia Argentina, Brazil, China, India and other principal grain producing countries were intensive, long, covered large areas and caused huge losses in agricultural production, which affected food and environmental security and led to food riots in some countries. This presentation investigate how droughts affect food and environmental security, if they can be detected earlier, how to monitor their area, intensity, duration and impacts and also their dynamics during the climate warming era with satellite-based vegetation health technology.

  17. Developing a European Drought Observatory for Monitoring, Assessing and Forecasting Droughts across the European Continent

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vogt, J.; Barbosa, P.; Hofer, B.; Magni, D.; Jager, A. D.; Singleton, A.; Horion, S.; Sepulcre, G.; Micale, F.; Sokolova, E.; Calcagni, L.; Marioni, M.; Antofie, T. E.

    2011-12-01

    Many European countries have repeatedly been affected by droughts, resulting in considerable ecological and economic damage. Climate change studies indicate a trend towards increasing climate variability most likely resulting in more frequent drought occurrences also in Europe. Against this background, the European Commission's Joint Research Centre (JRC) is developing methods and tools for assessing, monitoring and forecasting droughts in Europe and develops a European Drought Observatory (EDO) to complement national activities with a European view. As droughts affect the entire water cycle continuous monitoring of a suite of indicators is required. Drought indicators at continental scale are supplemented by indicators at national, regional and local scales, providing more detailed information. At the core of the European Drought Observatory (EDO) are a portal and a map server presenting Europe-wide up-to-date drought-relevant information to the public and to decision makers in policy and water resources management. The final portal will include access to metadata catalogues, media reports, a map server and other related resources. The current version of EDO publishes continental information based on data processed and analysed at JRC as well as more detailed information at national and river basin scale processed by the local authorities. Available drought products include monthly updated Standardized Precipitation Indices (SPI), modelled soil moisture anomalies, remote sensing observations on the state of the vegetation cover (i.e. fAPAR and NDWI) and groundwater levels. A one-week soil moisture anomaly forecast complements the picture. Access to information at the national and river basin scale is established through interoperability arrangements with local authorities, making use of a special metadata catalogue and OWS standards (especially WMS and WCS). In addition, time series of drought indices can be retrieved for grid cells and administrative regions in

  18. Forecasts of Agricultural Drought in Sri Lanka

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gilligan, J. M.; Gunda, T.; Hornberger, G. M.

    2015-12-01

    As the most frequent natural disaster in Sri Lanka, drought greatly affects crop production and livelihoods. Over half of all agricultural crop damage in Sri Lanka is currently due to drought; the frequency and severity of drought in the country is only expected to increase with the changing climate. Previous work indicates that the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) and Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) are capable of capturing agricultural drought patterns (between 1881-2010) in the island nation. In this work, PDSI and SPI from 13 long-term meteorological stations will be projected into the future using a combination of artificial neural network and autoregressive integrated moving average models. The impacts of large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns (such as the Niño 3.4 index, a measure of sea surface temperature) and lead times on projection accuracy will also be explored. Model projections will be compared to weather data since 2010 to determine if the 2014 drought could have been forecasted using these methods. Since agricultural systems are strongly influenced by both natural and human systems, it is important to frame these physical findings within a social context. This work is part of an interdisciplinary project that assesses the perceptions of and adaptations to drought by rice farmers in Sri Lanka; disciplines represented in the group include hydrology, social psychology, ethnography, policy, and behavioral economics. Insights from the diverse research perspectives within the group will be drawn upon to highlight the social implications of the physical results.

  19. Drought, Climate Change and Potential Agricultural Productivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheffield, J.; Herrera-Estrada, J. E.; Caylor, K. K.; Wood, E. F.

    2011-12-01

    Drought is a major factor in agricultural productivity, especially in developing regions where the capacity for water resources management is limited and climate variability ensures that drought is recurrent and problematic. Recent events in East Africa are testament to this, where drought conditions that have slowly developed over multiple years have contributed to reduced productivity and ultimately food crises and famine. Prospects for the future are not promising given ongoing problems of dwindling water supplies from non-renewable sources and the potential for increased water scarcity and increased drought with climate change. This is set against the expected increase in population by over 2 billion people by 2050 and rise in food demand, coupled with changes in demographics that affect food choices and increases in non-food agriculture. In this talk we discuss the global variability of drought over the 20th century and recent years, and the projected changes over the 21st century, and how this translates into changes in potential agricultural productivity. Drought is quantified using land surface hydrological models driven by a hybrid reanalysis-observational meteorological forcing dataset. Drought is defined in terms of anomalies of hydroclimatic variables, in particular precipitation, evaporation and soil moisture, and we calculate changes in various drought characteristics. Potential agricultural productivity is derived from the balance of precipitation to crop water demand, where demand is based on potential evaporation and crop coefficients for a range of staple crops. Some regional examples are shown of historic variations in drought and potential productivity, and the estimated water deficit for various crops. The multitude of events over the past decade, including heat waves in Europe, fires in Russia, long-term drought in northern China, southeast Australia, the Western US and a series of droughts in the Amazon and Argentina, hint at the influence of

  20. Drought in the southeast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stacy Clark; Martin Spetich; Zander Evans

    2008-01-01

    A historic drought gripped the Southeast region in 2007. It was the second driest year on record for the region, and rainfall in some areas including Alabama and North Carolina was the lowest on record for the last century. By the end of 2007, over a third of the region was classified in "exceptional" drought (the worst drought designation used by the U.S....

  1. Drought in Africa 2

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dalby, D.; Harrison-Church, R.J.; Berzaz, F. (eds.)

    1977-01-01

    The second edition of Drought in Africa is reviewed. The book, which has been greatly expanded, looks at the Sahelian and Ethiopian droughts from a long-term perspective. Among the subjects included are: a description of the meteorological aspects of the drought; changes in animal and human populations; overpopulation of areas of nomadic pastoralism and of crop-producing areas; and mechanisms by which people survived. Cash crops, taxes, the market economy and over-centralized planning receive much of the blame for the effects of the drought.

  2. Climate Change Implications to Irrigated Rice Production in Southern Brazil: A Modelling Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dos Santos, Thiago

    Rice is one of the staple foods for more than three billion people worldwide. When cultivated under irrigated conditions (i.e. lowland rice), rice is one of the most intensive water consumer crops globally. Therefore, representation of rice growth should be integrated into the latest land surface models to allow studies on food security and to ensure that accurate simulations of the bidirectional feedbacks between the land surface and atmosphere take place. In this study, I present a new process-based model for rice fields that includes rice growth and rice irrigation as modules within the Agro-IBIS dynamic agro-ecosystem model. The model includes a series of equations, agricultural management parameters and an irrigation scheme that are specifically tailored for rice crops. The model was evaluated against leaf area index and biomass observations, obtained for one growing season in Rio Grande do Sul state (southern Brazil), and in Los Banos, Philippines. The model accurately captured the temporal dynamics of leaf area index in both the Brazilian and the Philippine sites, and predicted end-of-season biomass with an error of between -9.5% and 11.3% depending on the location and the plant organ. Rice phenology is predicted by the model based on experimentally-derived growth rates, and was evaluated by comparing simulated and observed durations of the four growth phases considered by the model. Agro-IBIS showed a tendency to overestimate the duration of the growth stages between 3% and 16%, but underestimated by 8% the duration of the panicle formation phase in one growing season. The new irrigation model is based on the water balance at the surface and applies irrigation in order to keep the water layer at the paddy field always in the optimum level. A set of climate projections from global climate models under two emission scenarios, and excluding and considering CO2 fertilizations effects, was used to drive the updated Agro-IBIS to estimate the effects of climate

  3. Updated numerical model with uncertainty assessment of 1950-56 drought conditions on brackish-water movement within the Edwards aquifer, San Antonio, Texas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brakefield, Linzy K.; White, Jeremy T.; Houston, Natalie A.; Thomas, Jonathan V.

    2015-01-01

    In 2010, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the San Antonio Water System, began a study to assess the brackish-water movement within the Edwards aquifer (more specifically the potential for brackish-water encroachment into wells near the interface between the freshwater and brackish-water transition zones, referred to in this report as the transition-zone interface) and effects on spring discharge at Comal and San Marcos Springs under drought conditions using a numerical model. The quantitative targets of this study are to predict the effects of higher-than-average groundwater withdrawals from wells and drought-of-record rainfall conditions of 1950–56 on (1) dissolved-solids concentration changes at production wells near the transition-zone interface, (2) total spring discharge at Comal and San Marcos Springs, and (3) the groundwater head (head) at Bexar County index well J-17. The predictions of interest, and the parameters implemented into the model, were evaluated to quantify their uncertainty so the results of the predictions could be presented in terms of a 95-percent credible interval.

  4. Geographic distribution model for Mabuya agmosticha (Squamata: Scincidae in northeastern Brazil

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    Raul F.D. Sales

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available The Neotropical lizard Mabuya agmosticha Rodrigues, 2000 is a habitat-specialist of thorny bromeliads in rocky outcrops of northeastern Brazil. Its distribution in the Caatinga Domain is most likely relictual. In recent years, new surveys conducted in northeastern Brazil have revealed new records of the species in the Caatinga and also in the Atlantic Forest Domain. In this study, we add four new records for M. agmosticha, extending its known geographic range in the states of Rio Grande do Norte and Paraíba. In addition, we investigated the potential geographical distribution of the species using ecological niche modeling (ENM, which combines the available occurrence records with environmental variables. Our model revealed a continuous range of areas with suitable climatic conditions for the species, from the state of Rio Grande do Norte to the northeast portion of the state of Bahia, plus some relictual distribution spots, mainly in the states of Bahia, Pernambuco, Ceará and western Rio Grande do Norte. Based on the model, we suggest that the distribution of M. agmosticha is continuous on a large geographic scale. On a smaller spatial scale, however, it is clear that its distribution is clumped, reflecting its specialist habits associated with rupicolous bromeliads.

  5. Drought-Responsive Mechanisms in Plant Leaves Revealed by Proteomics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Xiaoli; Cai, Xiaofeng; Xu, Chenxi; Wang, Quanhua; Dai, Shaojun

    2016-10-18

    Plant drought tolerance is a complex trait that requires a global view to understand its underlying mechanism. The proteomic aspects of plant drought response have been extensively investigated in model plants, crops and wood plants. In this review, we summarize recent proteomic studies on drought response in leaves to reveal the common and specialized drought-responsive mechanisms in different plants. Although drought-responsive proteins exhibit various patterns depending on plant species, genotypes and stress intensity, proteomic analyses show that dominant changes occurred in sensing and signal transduction, reactive oxygen species scavenging, osmotic regulation, gene expression, protein synthesis/turnover, cell structure modulation, as well as carbohydrate and energy metabolism. In combination with physiological and molecular results, proteomic studies in leaves have helped to discover some potential proteins and/or metabolic pathways for drought tolerance. These findings provide new clues for understanding the molecular basis of plant drought tolerance.

  6. A PROPOSAL FORECASTING MODEL FOR THE GROWTH OF THE MOBILE TELEPHONE MARKET IN BRAZIL

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    Luís Fernando Ascenção Guedes

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available The element that characterizes the information era is the key role of communication and connectivity, broadly speaking, in social life. Among the ways in which users can enter voice or data networks, one of the most prominent is mobile telephony.Therefore, determining the number of mobile phones in operation in Brazil over the next few years is a relevant issue for the strategic planning of firms in this sector. Thus, this article aims to define a mathematical model suitable for calculating the number of mobile phones in operation in Brazil in forthcoming years, as a function of the behavior of the following variables during the course of time: GDP per capita, population and percentage GDP growth.To this end, a quantitative study was conducted, based on secondary data taken from preceding survey; then a linear and polynomial regression was employed to correlate GDP per capita with mobile phone density. The results showed high correlation (97.5% between phone density and Brazil’s GDP growth from 2004 to 2007. This correlation is also high in Russia, India and China.Moreover, we found that the limiting value of good correlation between GDP per capita and mobile phone density is roughly US$20,000.00 and that the limit of mobile telephony penetration is approximately 120%. Thus, taking into account several economic growth rates, we estimate that the penetration of mobile telephony will take 5 to 11 years to reach its upper limit in Brazil.Key words: Mobile telephony. Prediction model. Telecommunications.

  7. Agricultural Productivity Forecasts for Improved Drought Monitoring

    Science.gov (United States)

    Limaye, Ashutosh; McNider, Richard; Moss, Donald; Alhamdan, Mohammad

    2010-01-01

    Water stresses on agricultural crops during critical phases of crop phenology (such as grain filling) has higher impact on the eventual yield than at other times of crop growth. Therefore farmers are more concerned about water stresses in the context of crop phenology than the meteorological droughts. However the drought estimates currently produced do not account for the crop phenology. US Department of Agriculture (USDA) and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) have developed a drought monitoring decision support tool: The U.S. Drought Monitor, which currently uses meteorological droughts to delineate and categorize drought severity. Output from the Drought Monitor is used by the States to make disaster declarations. More importantly, USDA uses the Drought Monitor to make estimates of crop yield to help the commodities market. Accurate estimation of corn yield is especially critical given the recent trend towards diversion of corn to produce ethanol. Ethanol is fast becoming a standard 10% ethanol additive to petroleum products, the largest traded commodity. Thus the impact of large-scale drought will have dramatic impact on the petroleum prices as well as on food prices. USDA's World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) serves as a focal point for economic intelligence and the commodity outlook for U.S. WAOB depends on Drought Monitor and has emphatically stated that accurate and timely data are needed in operational agrometeorological services to generate reliable projections for agricultural decision makers. Thus, improvements in the prediction of drought will reflect in early and accurate assessment of crop yields, which in turn will improve commodity projections. We have developed a drought assessment tool, which accounts for the water stress in the context of crop phenology. The crop modeling component is done using various crop modules within Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT). DSSAT is an agricultural crop

  8. Separating drought effects from roof artefacts on ecosystem processes in a grassland drought experiment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vogel, Anja; Fester, Thomas; Eisenhauer, Nico; Scherer-Lorenzen, Michael; Schmid, Bernhard; Weisser, Wolfgang W.; Weigelt, Alexandra

    2013-04-01

    Given the predictions of increasing risk of long drought periods under various climate change scenarios, there have been numerous experimental field studies simulating drought using transparent roofs in different ecosystems and regions. Such roofs may, however, have unknown side effects, here called artefacts, on the response variables potentially confounding experimental results and misleading conclusions. Knowing the ecosystem response to such roof artefacts is therefore indispensible to correctly predict the effects of drought on the composition and functioning of ecosystems. We therefore aimed at filling this gap by studying the relevance of roof artefacts in a temperate grassland ecosystem. We compared pure drought effects to roof artefacts by measuring the response of three ecosystem properties (aboveground biomass, litter decomposition and plant metabolite profiles). We realized three treatments: a drought treatment simulated by means of transparent roofs, an unroofed control treatment receiving natural rainfall and a roofed control, with rain water applied according to ambient conditions. The roof constructions in our experiment caused a slight change in air (+0.14 °C during night) and soil (-0.45°C on warm days, +0.25 °C on cold nights) temperatures while photosynthetically active radiation was decreased (-16%) on bright days. Aboveground plant community biomass was reduced in the drought treatment (-41%), but there was no significant difference between the roofed and unroofed control, thus there was no measurable response of aboveground biomass to roof artefacts, but a considerable response to drought. Compared to the unroofed control, litter decomposition was decreased both in the drought treatment (-26%) and in the roofed control treatment (-18%), suggesting a response of litter decomposition to roof artefacts in addition to drought. Similarly, aboveground metabolite profiles in the model plant species Medicago x varia were significantly different

  9. Separating drought effects from roof artifacts on ecosystem processes in a grassland drought experiment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vogel, Anja; Fester, Thomas; Eisenhauer, Nico; Scherer-Lorenzen, Michael; Schmid, Bernhard; Weisser, Wolfgang W; Weigelt, Alexandra

    2013-01-01

    1: Given the predictions of increased drought probabilities under various climate change scenarios, there have been numerous experimental field studies simulating drought using transparent roofs in different ecosystems and regions. Such roofs may, however, have unknown side effects, called artifacts, on the measured variables potentially confounding the experimental results. A roofed control allows the quantification of potential artifacts, which is lacking in most experiments. 2: We conducted a drought experiment in experimental grasslands to study artifacts of transparent roofs and the resulting effects of artifacts on ecosystems relative to drought on three response variables (aboveground biomass, litter decomposition and plant metabolite profiles). We established three drought treatments, using (1) transparent roofs to exclude rainfall, (2) an unroofed control treatment receiving natural rainfall and (3) a roofed control, nested in the drought treatment but with rain water reapplied according to ambient conditions. 3: Roofs had a slight impact on air (+0.14°C during night) and soil temperatures (-0.45°C on warm days, +0.25°C on cold nights), while photosynthetically active radiation was decreased significantly (-16%). Aboveground plant community biomass was reduced in the drought treatment (-41%), but there was no significant difference between the roofed and unroofed control, i.e., there were no measurable roof artifact effects. 4: Compared to the unroofed control, litter decomposition was decreased significantly both in the drought treatment (-26%) and in the roofed control treatment (-18%), suggesting artifact effects of the transparent roofs. Moreover, aboveground metabolite profiles in the model plant species Medicago x varia were different from the unroofed control in both the drought and roofed control treatments, and roof artifact effects were of comparable magnitude as drought effects. 5: Our results stress the need for roofed control treatments

  10. Large-scale hydrological modelling in the semi-arid north-east of Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Güntner, Andreas

    2002-07-01

    Semi-arid areas are, due to their climatic setting, characterized by small water resources. An increasing water demand as a consequence of population growth and economic development as well as a decreasing water availability in the course of possible climate change may aggravate water scarcity in future, which often exists already for present-day conditions in these areas. Understanding the mechanisms and feedbacks of complex natural and human systems, together with the quantitative assessment of future changes in volume, timing and quality of water resources are a prerequisite for the development of sustainable measures of water management to enhance the adaptive capacity of these regions. For this task, dynamic integrated models, containing a hydrological model as one component, are indispensable tools. The main objective of this study is to develop a hydrological model for the quantification of water availability in view of environmental change over a large geographic domain of semi-arid environments. The study area is the Federal State of Ceará (150 000 km2) in the semi-arid north-east of Brazil. Mean annual precipitation in this area is 850 mm, falling in a rainy season with duration of about five months. Being mainly characterized by crystalline bedrock and shallow soils, surface water provides the largest part of the water supply. The area has recurrently been affected by droughts which caused serious economic losses and social impacts like migration from the rural regions. The hydrological model Wasa (Model of Water Availability in Semi-Arid Environments) developed in this study is a deterministic, spatially distributed model being composed of conceptual, process-based approaches. Water availability (river discharge, storage volumes in reservoirs, soil moisture) is determined with daily resolution. Sub-basins, grid cells or administrative units (municipalities) can be chosen as spatial target units. The administrative units enable the coupling of Wasa in

  11. On the seasonal variability and eddies in the North Brazil Current: insights from model intercomparison experiments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnier, Bernard; Reynaud, Thierry; Beckmann, Aike; Böning, Claus; Molines, Jean-Marc; Barnard, Sally; Jia, Yanli

    The time dependent circulation of the North Brazil Current is studied with three numerical ocean circulation models, which differ by the vertical coordinate used to formulate the primitive equations. The models are driven with the same surface boundary conditions and their horizontal grid-resolution (isotropic, 1/3° at the equator) is in principle fine enough to permit the generation of mesoscale eddies. Our analysis of the mean seasonal currents concludes that the volume transport of the North Brazil Current (NBC) at the equator is principally determined by the strength of the meridional overturning, and suggests that the return path of the global thermohaline circulation is concentrated in the NBC. Models which simulate a realistic overturning at 24°N of the order of 16-18 Sv also simulate a realistic NBC transport of nearly 35 Sv comparable to estimates deduced from the most recent observations. In all models, the major part of this inflow of warm waters from the South Atlantic recirculates in the zonal equatorial current system, but the models also agree on the existence of a permanent coastal mean flow to the north-west, from the equator into the Carribean Sea, in the form of a continuous current or a succession of eddies. Important differences are found between models in their representation of the eddy field. The reasons invoked are the use of different subgrid-scale parameterisations, and differences in stability of the NBC retroflection loop because of differences in the representation of the effect of bottom friction according to the vertical coordinate that is used. Finally, even if differences noticed between models in the details of the seasonal mean circulation and water mass properties could be explained by differences in the eddy field, nonetheless the major characteristics (mean seasonal currents, volume and heat transports) appears to be at first order driven by the strength of the thermohaline circulation.

  12. Caracterização climatológica da severidade de secas do Estado do Ceará - Brasil Climatological characterization of the drought severity in the State of Ceará - Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tarcisio da S. Barra

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available O objetivo deste trabalho foi caracterizar as secas do Estado do Ceará, com base no índice de severidade de seca de Palmer. Foram utilizadas séries históricas de dados pluviométricos e de temperatura do ar de 21 localidades desse Estado, fornecidas, respectivamente, pela Superintendência de Desenvolvimento do Nordeste - SUDENE, e pela Fundação Cearense de Meteorologia e Recursos Hídricos - FUNCEME. Foi constatado a ocorrência de secas com diferentes graus de severidade, no Estado do Ceará, sendo as secas moderadas e severas as mais freqüentes.The objective of this work was to characterize the droughts in the State of Ceará based on the Palmer drought severity index. Historical data series of rainfall and air temperature of 21 localities of this State, were provided by the "Superintendência de Desenvolvimento do Nordeste - SUDENE", and by the "Fundação Cearense de Meteorologia e Recursos Hídricos - FUNCEME", respectively. The occurrences of droughts of different degrees of severity were verified in the State of Ceará, with frequent moderate and severe droughts.

  13. Hydrological drought severity explained by climate and catchment characteristics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Loon, A. F.; Laaha, G.

    2015-07-01

    Impacts of a drought are generally dependent on the severity of the hydrological drought event, which can be expressed by streamflow drought duration or deficit volume. For prediction and the selection of drought sensitive regions, it is crucial to know how streamflow drought severity relates to climate and catchment characteristics. In this study we investigated controls on drought severity based on a comprehensive Austrian dataset consisting of 44 catchments with long time series of hydrometeorological data (on average around 50 year) and information on a large number of physiographic catchment characteristics. Drought analysis was performed with the variable threshold level method and various statistical tools were applied, i.e. bivariate correlation analysis, heatmaps, linear models based on multiple regression, varying slope models, and automatic stepwise regression. Results indicate that streamflow drought duration is primarily controlled by storage, quantified by the Base Flow Index or by a combination of catchment characteristics related to catchment storage and release, e.g. geology and land use. Additionally, the duration of dry spells in precipitation is important for streamflow drought duration. Hydrological drought deficit, however, is governed by average catchment wetness (represented by mean annual precipitation) and elevation (reflecting seasonal storage in the snow pack and glaciers). Our conclusion is that both drought duration and deficit are governed by a combination of climate and catchment control, but not in a similar way. Besides meteorological forcing, storage is important; storage in soils, aquifers, lakes, etc. influences drought duration and seasonal storage in snow and glaciers influences drought deficit. Consequently, the spatial variation of hydrological drought severity is highly dependent on terrestrial hydrological processes.

  14. CreativeDrought: An interdisciplinary approach to building resilience to drought

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rangecroft, Sally; Van Loon, Anne; Rohse, Melanie; Day, Rosie; Birkinshaw, Stephen; Makaya, Eugine

    2017-04-01

    Drought events cause severe water and food insecurities in many developing countries where resilience to natural hazards and change is low due to a number of reasons (including poverty, social and political inequality, and limited access to information). Furthermore, with climate change and increasing pressures from population and societal change, populations are expected to experience future droughts outside of their historic range. Integrated water resources management is an established tool combining natural science, engineering and management to help address drought and associated impacts. However, it often lacks a strong social and cultural aspect, leading to poor implementation on the ground. For a more holistic approach to building resilience to future drought, a stronger interdisciplinary approach is required which can incorporate the local cultural context and perspectives into drought and water management, and communicate information effectively to communities. In this pilot project 'CreativeDrought', we use a novel interdisciplinary approach aimed at building resilience to future drought in rural Africa by combining hydrological modelling with rich local information and engaging communicative approaches from social sciences. The work is conducted through a series of steps in which we i) engage with local rural communities to collect narratives on drought experiences; ii) generate hydrological modelling scenarios based on IPCC projections, existing data and the collected narratives; iii) feed these back to the local community to gather their responses to these scenarios; iv) iteratively adapt them to obtain hypothetical future drought scenarios; v) engage the community with the scenarios to formulate new future drought narratives; and vi) use this new data to enhance local water resource management. Here we present some of the indigenous knowledge gathered through narratives and the hydrological modelling scenarios for a rural community in Southern Africa

  15. Rapid prototyping and 3D-virtual models for operative dentistry education in Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soares, Paulo Vinícius; de Almeida Milito, Giovana; Pereira, Fabrícia Araújo; Reis, Bruno Rodrigues; Soares, Carlos José; de Sousa Menezes, Murilo; de Freitas Santos-Filho, Paulo César

    2013-03-01

    Many dental students struggle for visual recognition when first exposed to the study of tooth cavity preparation in the operative dentistry laboratory. Rapid prototypes and virtual models of different cavity preparations were developed for the incoming first-year class of 2010 at the Dental School of Federal University of Uberlândia, Brazil, to help them to visualize the subtle differences in cavity preparations and are described in this article. Rapid prototyping techniques have been used in dental therapy, mainly for the fabrication of models to ease surgical planning in implantology, orthodontics, and maxillofacial prostheses. On the other hand, the application of these technologies associated with 3D-virtual models in dental education is waiting to be exploited, once they have significant potential to complement conventional training methods in dentistry.

  16. USGS integrated drought science

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ostroff, Andrea C.; Muhlfeld, Clint C.; Lambert, Patrick M.; Booth, Nathaniel L.; Carter, Shawn L.; Stoker, Jason M.; Focazio, Michael J.

    2017-06-05

    Project Need and OverviewDrought poses a serious threat to the resilience of human communities and ecosystems in the United States (Easterling and others, 2000). Over the past several years, many regions have experienced extreme drought conditions, fueled by prolonged periods of reduced precipitation and exceptionally warm temperatures. Extreme drought has far-reaching impacts on water supplies, ecosystems, agricultural production, critical infrastructure, energy costs, human health, and local economies (Milly and others, 2005; Wihlite, 2005; Vörösmarty and others, 2010; Choat and others, 2012; Ledger and others, 2013). As global temperatures continue to increase, the frequency, severity, extent, and duration of droughts are expected to increase across North America, affecting both humans and natural ecosystems (Parry and others, 2007).The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has a long, proven history of delivering science and tools to help decision-makers manage and mitigate effects of drought. That said, there is substantial capacity for improved integration and coordination in the ways that the USGS provides drought science. A USGS Drought Team was formed in August 2016 to work across USGS Mission Areas to identify current USGS drought-related research and core capabilities. This information has been used to initiate the development of an integrated science effort that will bring the full USGS capacity to bear on this national crisis.

  17. Tree responses to drought

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michael G. Ryan

    2011-01-01

    With global climate change, drought may become more common in the future (IPCC 2007). Several factors will promote more frequent droughts: earlier snowmelt, higher temperatures and higher variability in precipitation. For ecosystems where the water cycle is dominated by snowmelt, warmer temperatures bring earlier melt (Stewart et al. 2005) and longer, drier snow-free...

  18. Drought Tolerance in Wheat

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prodhan, Zakaria Hossain; Faruq, Golam

    2013-01-01

    Drought is one of the most important phenomena which limit crops' production and yield. Crops demonstrate various morphological, physiological, biochemical, and molecular responses to tackle drought stress. Plants' vegetative and reproductive stages are intensively influenced by drought stress. Drought tolerance is a complicated trait which is controlled by polygenes and their expressions are influenced by various environmental elements. This means that breeding for this trait is so difficult and new molecular methods such as molecular markers, quantitative trait loci (QTL) mapping strategies, and expression patterns of genes should be applied to produce drought tolerant genotypes. In wheat, there are several genes which are responsible for drought stress tolerance and produce different types of enzymes and proteins for instance, late embryogenesis abundant (lea), responsive to abscisic acid (Rab), rubisco, helicase, proline, glutathione-S-transferase (GST), and carbohydrates during drought stress. This review paper has concentrated on the study of water limitation and its effects on morphological, physiological, biochemical, and molecular responses of wheat with the possible losses caused by drought stress. PMID:24319376

  19. Drought and rangelands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Droughts are common and occur regularly in Oklahoma. They’re the most costly natural hazard to the United States, and estimates show a $6-$8 billion annual loss to the nation’s farmers and rancher. With the current drought impacting Oklahoma, people managing rangelands are concerned with the short...

  20. Drought and pasture management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drought is a common feature of every landscape and can last from a few months to several years. According to the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), droughts are the most costly natural hazard affecting the United States costing 6 to 8 billion dollars annually. Mitigating the impacts of dr...

  1. Mayan Historical drought trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Velasco Hererra, V.; Mendoza, B. E.; García-Acosta, V.

    2007-05-01

    In this work we present a more objective and general cycle-length determination of catalogues of past drought data for the Yucatan Peninsula between 1502 and 1900 coming from historical written documentation. We use the wavelet transformation based on the Morlet wavelet, and found that the most prominent frequencies of the historical drought series are ~ 3,4, 7, 12, 20, 43 and 70 years. We studied the relation between historical droughts and several large-scale climate phenomena represented by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). Our results indicate that historical droughts and the cold phase of the AMO coincide, while the influence of the SOI is less clear. The strongest coincidences between historical droughts and AMO occurred around periodicities of 40 yrs. A further study of wavelet coherence shows that there are also common signal along time between droughts and various solar activity phenomena, in particular Be10, a proxy of cosmic rays. Comparing natural terrestrial and solar phenomena, we realize that the most sustained and strongest modulation of historical drought occurrence is at ~ 60-64 yrs and is between droughts and the solar proxy Be10.

  2. Drought management plans and water availability in agriculture: A risk assessment model for a Southern European basin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos Dionisio Pérez-Blanco

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available The Drought Management Plans (DMPs are regulatory instruments that establish priorities among the different water uses and define more stringent constraints to access to publicly provided water during droughts, especially for non-priority uses such as agriculture. These plans have recently become widespread across EU southern basins. However, in some of these basins the plans were approved without an assessment of the potential impacts that they may have on the economic activities exposed to water restrictions. This paper develops a stochastic methodology to estimate the expected water availability in agriculture that results from the decision rules of the recently approved DMPs. The methodology is applied to the particular case of the Guadalquivir River Basin in southern Spain. Results show that if DMPs are successfully enforced, available water will satisfy in average 62.2% of current demand, and this figure may drop to 50.2% by the end of the century as a result of climate change. This is much below the minimum threshold of 90% that has been guaranteed to irrigators so far.

  3. Economic modelling assessment of the HPV quadrivalent vaccine in Brazil: a dynamic individual-based approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vanni, Tazio; Luz, Paula Mendes; Foss, Anna; Mesa-Frias, Marco; Legood, Rosa

    2012-07-06

    We examined the cost-effectiveness of the quadrivalent HPV vaccine for the pre-adolescent female population of Brazil. Using demographic, epidemiological and cancer data, we developed a dynamic individual-based model representing the natural history of HPV/cervical cancer as well as the impact of screening and vaccination programmes. Assuming the current screening strategies, we calculated the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) for cohorts with and without vaccination taking into account different combinations of vaccination coverage (50%, 70%, 90%) and cost per vaccinated woman (US$25, US$55, US$125, US$556). The results varied from cost-saving (coverage 50% or 70% and cost per vaccinated woman US$25) to 5950 US$/QALY (coverage 90% and cost per vaccinated 556 US$). In a scenario in which a booster shot was needed after 10 years in order to secure lifelong protection, the ICER resulted in 13,576 US$/QALY. Considering the very cost-effective and cost-effective thresholds based on Brazil's GDP per capita, apart from the booster scenario which would be deemed cost-effective, all the other scenarios would be deemed very cost-effective. Both the cost per dose of vaccine and discount rate (5%) had an important impact on the results. Vaccination in addition to the current screening programme is likely to save years of life and, depending on the cost of vaccination, may even save resources. Price negotiations between governments and manufacturers will be paramount in determining that the vaccine not only represents good value for money, but is also affordable in middle-income countries like Brazil. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. The European Drought Observatory (EDO) - A European Contribution to a Global Drought Information System (GDIS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vogt, J.; Sepulcre, G.; De Jager, A.; Magni, D.; Valentini, L.; Russo, S.; Micale, F.; Barbosa, P.

    2013-12-01

    Europe has repeatedly been affected by droughts, resulting in considerable ecological and economic damage and climate change studies indicate a trend towards increasing climate variability most likely resulting in more frequent drought occurrences also in Europe. Against this background, the European Commission's Joint Research Centre (JRC) is developing methods and tools for assessing, monitoring and forecasting droughts in Europe and develops a European Drought Observatory (EDO) to complement and integrate national activities with a European view. At the core of EDO is a portal, including a map viewer, a metadata catalogue, a media-monitor and analysis tools. Underlying data stem from ground and satellite observations as well as from distributed hydrological models and are stored in a relational database. Through the map viewer Europe-wide up-to-date information on the occurrence and severity of droughts is presented, complemented by more detailed information from regional, national and local observatories through OGC compliant web-mapping services. The continent-wide meteorological, soil moisture-related and vegetation-related indicators are then integrated into a combined indicator showing different alert levels targeted specifically to decision makers in water and land management. Finally, time series of historical maps as well as graphs of the temporal evolution of drought indices for individual grid cells in Europe can be retrieved and analysed. On-going work is focusing on developing reliable medium and long-range probabilistic as well as seasonal drought forecasts, the analysis of climate change impacts on drought occurrence, duration and severity and the assessment of current and future drought hazard and risk. In addition, remote sensing-based water-stress indicators from geostationary satellite data (e.g., MSG SEVIRI) are developed in order to complement the available information. The further development of EDO as part of a Global Drought Information

  5. A USCLIVAR Project to Assess and Compare the Responses of Global Climate Models to Drought-Related SST Forcing Patterns: Overview and Results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schubert, Siegfried; Wang, Hailan; Koster, Randal; Weaver, Scott; Gutzler, David; Dai, Aiguo; Delworth, Tom; Deser, Clara; Findell, Kristen; Fu, Rong; hide

    2009-01-01

    The USCLI VAR working group on drought recently initiated a series of global climate model simulations forced with idealized SST anomaly patterns, designed to address a number of uncertainties regarding the impact of SST forcing and the role of land-atmosphere feedbacks on regional drought. Specific questions that the runs are designed to address include: What are the mechanisms that maintain drought across the seasonal cycle and from one year to the next? What is the role of the leading patterns of SST variability, and what are the physical mechanisms linking the remote SST forcing to regional drought, including the role of land-atmosphere coupling? The runs were carried out with five different atmospheric general circulation models (AGCM5), and one coupled atmosphere-ocean model in which the model was continuously nudged to the imposed SST forcing. This paper provides an overview of the experiments and some initial results focusing on the responses to the leading patterns of annual mean SST variability consisting of a Pacific El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-like pattern, a pattern that resembles the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO), and a global trend pattern. One of the key findings is that all the AGCMs produce broadly similar (though different in detail) precipitation responses to the Pacific forcing pattern, with a cold Pacific leading to reduced precipitation and a warm Pacific leading to enhanced precipitation over most of the United States. While the response to the Atlantic pattern is less robust, there is general agreement among the models that the largest precipitation response over the U.S. tends to occur when the two oceans have anomalies of opposite sign. That is, a cold Pacific and warm Atlantic tend to produce the largest precipitation reductions, whereas a warm Pacific and cold Atlantic tend to produce the greatest precipitation enhancements. Further analysis of the response over the U.S. to the Pacific forcing highlights a number of

  6. Towards drought risk mapping on a pan-European scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blauhut, Veit; Gudmundsson, Lukas; Stahl, Kerstin; Seneviratne, Sonia

    2014-05-01

    Drought is a very complex and multifarious natural hazard, which causes a variety of direct and indirect environmental and socio-economic impacts. For the last 30 years, droughts in Europe caused over 100 billion Euros of losses from impacts in various sectors e.g. agriculture, water quality or energy production. Despite the apparent importance of this hazard observed pan-European drought impacts have not yet been quantitatively related to the most important climatological drivers. Fundamentally, a common approach to describe drought risk on a pan-European scale is still missing. This contribution presents an approach for linking climatological drought indices with observed drought impacts at the European scale. Standardized precipitation index (SPI) and standardized precipitation and evapotranspiration index (SPEI) for different time scales were calculated based on E-OBS data and are used to describe the drought hazard. Data from the European Drought Impact Inventory (EDII) compiled by the EU FP7 Drought R&SPI (Fostering European Drought Research and Science-Policy Interfacing) project are used as a proxy for multi-sectorial (impact categories) vulnerability following the assumption that a reported impact reflects a region's vulnerability to the hazard. Drought risk is then modelled statistically by applying logistic regression to estimate the probability of impact report occurrence as a function of SPI and SPEI. This approach finally allows to map the probability of drought impact occurrence on a year by year basis. The emerging patterns compare well to many known European drought events. Such maps may become an essential component of Drought Risk Management to foster resilience for this hazard at the large scale.

  7. The impact of climate mitigation on projections of future drought

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, I. H.; Burke, E.; McColl, L.; Falloon, P. D.; Harris, G. R.; McNeall, D.

    2013-06-01

    Drought is a cumulative event, often difficult to define and involving wide-reaching consequences for agriculture, ecosystems, water availability, and society. Understanding how the occurrence of drought may change in the future and which sources of uncertainty are dominant can inform appropriate decisions to guide drought impacts assessments. Our study considers both climate model uncertainty associated with future climate projections, and future emissions of greenhouse gases (future scenario uncertainty). Four drought indices (the Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI), Soil Moisture Anomaly (SMA), the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) and the Standardised Runoff Index (SRI)) are calculated for the A1B and RCP2.6 future emissions scenarios using monthly model output from a 57-member perturbed parameter ensemble of climate simulations of the HadCM3C Earth System model, for the baseline period 1961-1990, and the period 2070-2099 ("the 2080s"). We consider where there are statistically significant increases or decreases in the proportion of time spent in drought in the 2080s compared to the baseline. Despite the large range of uncertainty in drought projections for many regions, projections for some regions have a clear signal, with uncertainty associated with the magnitude of change rather than direction. For instance, a significant increase in time spent in drought is generally projected for the Amazon, Central America and South Africa whilst projections for northern India consistently show significant decreases in time spent in drought. Whilst the patterns of changes in future drought were similar between scenarios, climate mitigation, represented by the RCP2.6 scenario, tended to reduce future changes in drought. In general, climate mitigation reduced the area over which there was a significant increase in drought but had little impact on the area over which there was a significant decrease in time spent in drought.

  8. The SIR model of Zika virus disease outbreak in Brazil at year 2015

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aik, Lim Eng; Kiang, Lam Chee; Hong, Tan Wei; Abu, Mohd Syafarudy

    2017-05-01

    This research study demonstrates a numerical model intended for comprehension the spread of the year 2015 Zika virus disease utilizing the standard SIR framework. In modeling virulent disease dynamics, it is important to explore whether the illness spread could accomplish a pandemic level or it could be eradicated. Information from the year 2015 Zika virus disease event is utilized and Brazil where the event began is considered in this research study. A three dimensional nonlinear differential equation is formulated and solved numerically utilizing the Euler's method in MS excel. It is appeared from the research study that, with health intercessions of public, the viable regenerative number can be decreased making it feasible for the event to cease to exist. It is additionally indicated numerically that the pandemic can just cease to exist when there are no new infected people in the populace.

  9. MAESPA: a model to study interactions between water limitation, environmental drivers and vegetation function at tree and stand levels, with an example application to [CO2] × drought interactions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. E. Medlyn

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Process-based models (PBMs of vegetation function can be used to interpret and integrate experimental results. Water limitation to plant carbon uptake is a highly uncertain process in the context of environmental change, and many experiments have been carried out that study drought limitations to vegetation function at spatial scales from seedlings to entire canopies. What is lacking in the synthesis of these experiments is a quantitative tool incorporating a detailed mechanistic representation of the water balance that can be used to integrate and analyse experimental results at scales of both the whole-plant and the forest canopy. To fill this gap, we developed an individual tree-based model (MAESPA, largely based on combining the well-known MAESTRA and SPA ecosystem models. The model includes a hydraulically-based model of stomatal conductance, root water uptake routines, drainage, infiltration, runoff and canopy interception, as well as detailed radiation interception and leaf physiology routines from the MAESTRA model. The model can be applied both to single plants of arbitrary size and shape, as well as stands of trees. The utility of this model is demonstrated by studying the interaction between elevated [CO2] (eCa and drought. Based on theory, this interaction is generally expected to be positive, so that plants growing in eCa should be less susceptible to drought. Experimental results, however, are varied. We apply the model to a previously published experiment on droughted cherry, and show that changes in plant parameters due to long-term growth at eCa (acclimation may strongly affect the outcome of Ca × drought experiments. We discuss potential applications of MAESPA and some of the key uncertainties in process representation.

  10. Piloting a Commercial Model for Fortified Rice: Lessons Learned From Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milani, Peiman; Spohrer, Rebecca; Garrett, Greg; Kreis, Katharine

    2016-05-18

    Two billion people worldwide have micronutrient deficiencies. Food fortification is a proven intervention to increase essential micronutrient availability in diets without requiring consumer behavioral change. Fortification of rice has high potential reach; however, cost, technology, market, and cultural constraints have prevented its wider adoption. From 2010 to 2014, PATH and Global Alliance for Improved Nutrition implemented a pilot project in Brazil testing a model to scale up rice fortification through commercial channels. The project focused on 5 areas: (1) building fortified rice kernel production capacity; (2) supply chain development; (3) distribution channel and market development; (4) demand generation; and (5) advocacy and knowledge dissemination. Primary data were collected in 2 rounds of quantitative research 6 months apart and conducted in 2 regions in Brazil. Secondary data were sourced from published literature, socioeconomic and demographic data, and sales figures from the project's rice miller partner. Postmortem analysis was conducted by the project team with input from external sources. Although the project successfully launched a fortified rice product and a category brand platform, it was unsuccessful in reaching meaningful scale. Market and industry dynamics affected producers' willingness to launch new fortified products. Consumers' strong attachment to rice combined with a weak understanding of micronutrient malnutrition hampered demand creation efforts. This project showed that a purely commercial approach is insufficient for sustainable scale-up of fortified rice to achieve public health goals in a 3- to 5-year period. © The Author(s) 2016.

  11. Drought - A Global Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lackner, S.; Barnwal, P.; von der Goltz, J.

    2013-12-01

    We investigate the lasting effects of early childhood exposure to drought on economic and health outcomes in a large multi-country dataset. By pooling all Demographic and Health Survey rounds for which household geocodes are available, we obtain an individual-level dataset covering 47 developing countries. Among other impact measures, we collect infant and child mortality data from 3.3m live births and data on stunting and wasting for 1.2m individuals, along with data on education, employment, wealth, marriage and childbearing later in life for similarly large numbers of respondents. Birth years vary from 1893 to 2012. We seek to improve upon existing work on the socio-economic impact of drought in a number of ways. First, we introduce from the hydrological literature a drought measure, the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), that has been shown to closely proxy the Palmer drought index, but has far less demanding data requirements, and can be obtained globally and for long time periods. We estimate the SPI for 110 years on a global 0.5° grid, which allows us to assign drought histories to the geocoded individual data. Additionally, we leverage our large sample size to explicitly investigate both how drought impacts have changed over time as adaptation occurred at a varying pace in different locations, and the role of the regional extent of drought in determining impacts.

  12. Drought Management Strategies in Spain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pilar Paneque

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available The ongoing debate on water policies in Spain is characterised by a traditional paradigm, dominated by the intervention on hydrological systems through the construction and management of infrastructure, which is progressively being abandoned but is currently still strong while the emergence of new management approaches. Climate change and the Water Framework Directive (WFD are, in addition, the background to increasing challenges to traditional perspectives on drought, and important steps have been taken towards their replacement. This work analyzes the evolution of the normative structure and management models to identify recent shifts. The analysis is based on a fundamental conceptual change that places drought in the framework of risk, rather than that of crisis. I argue for the need to advance new prevention policies that can finally overcome productivist inertia and undertake essential tasks such as reallocating water flows, revising and controlling the water-concession system, and reinforcing and guaranteeing public participation.

  13. Using FRET for Drought Mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Osborne, H. D.; Palmer, C. K.; Hobbins, M.

    2016-12-01

    With the ongoing drought plaguing California and much of the Western United States, water agencies and the general public have a heightened need for short term forecasts of evapotranspiration. The National Weather Service's (NWS) Forecast Reference Evapotranspiration (FRET) product suite can fill this need. The FRET product suite uses the Penman - Monteith Reference Evapotranspiration (ETrc) equation for a short canopy (12 cm grasses), adopted by the Environmental Water Resources Institute of the American Society of Civil Engineers. FRET is calculated across the contiguous U.S. using temperatures, humidity, winds, and sky cover from Numerical Weather Prediction (NPW) models and adjusted by NWS forecasters with local expertise of terrain and weather patterns. The Weekly ETrc product is easily incorporated into drought-planning strategies, allowing water managers, the agricultural community, and the public to make better informed water-use decisions. FRET can assist with the decision making process for scheduling irrigation (e.g., farms, golf courses, vineyards) and timing of fertilizers. The California Department of Water Resources (CA DWR) also ingests the FRET into their soil moisture models, and uses FRET to assist in determining the reservoir releases for the Feather River. The United States Bureau of Reclamation (USBR) also uses FRET in determining reservoir releases and assessing water temperature along the Sacramento and American Rivers. FRET is now operational on the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD), permitting other agencies easy access to this nationwide data for all drought mitigation and planning purposes.

  14. The asymmetric impact of global warming on US drought types and distributions in a large ensemble of 97 hydro-climatic simulations

    OpenAIRE

    Huang, Shengzhi; Leng, Guoyong; Huang, Qiang; Xie, Yangyang; Liu, Saiyan; Meng, Erhao; Li, Pei

    2017-01-01

    Projection of future drought is often involved large uncertainties from climate models, emission scenarios as well as drought definitions. In this study, we investigate changes in future droughts in the conterminous United States based on 97 1/8 degree hydro-climate model projections. Instead of focusing on a specific drought type, we investigate changes in meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological drought as well as the concurrences. Agricultural and hydrological droughts are projected ...

  15. Cost-utility of quadrivalent versus trivalent influenza vaccine in Brazil – comparison of outcomes from different static model types

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laure-Anne Van Bellinghen

    2018-01-01

    Conclusion: All three models predicted a cost per quality-adjusted life year gained for quadrivalent versus trivalent influenza vaccine in the range of R$19,257 (FLORENCE to R$22,768 (FLORA with the best available data in Brazil (Appendix A.

  16. Forecasting the new case detection rate of leprosy in four states of Brazil: A comparison of modelling approaches

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    D.J. Blok (David); R.E. Crump (Ron E.); Sundaresh, R. (Ram); M. Ndeffo-Mbah (Martial); Galvani, A.P. (Alison P.); T.C. Porco (Travis C.); S.J. de Vlas (Sake); G.F. Medley (Graham F.); J.H. Richardus (Jan Hendrik)

    2017-01-01

    textabstractBackground Brazil has the second highest annual number of new leprosy cases. The aim of this study is to formally compare predictions of future new case detection rate (NCDR) trends and the annual probability of NCDR falling below 10/100,000 of four different modelling approaches in four

  17. Analysis of ENSO-based climate variability in modulating drought ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    The first copula model is developed without accounting the climate state information to obtain joint and conditional return periods of drought characteristics. Then, copula-based models are developed for each climate state to estimate the joint and conditional probabilities of drought characteristics under each ENSO state.

  18. Analysis of ENSO-based climate variability in modulating drought ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    The first copula model is developed without accounting the climate state infor- mation to obtain joint and conditional return periods of drought characteristics. Then, copula-based models are developed for each climate state to estimate the joint and conditional probabilities of drought characteristics under each ENSO state.

  19. Palmer Drought Severity Index

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — PDSI from the Dai dataset. The Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) is devised by Palmer (1965) to represent the severity of dry and wet spells over the U.S. based...

  20. Drought events in the Czech Republic: past, present, future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brázdil, Rudolf; Trnka, Miroslav; Mikšovský, Jiří; Tolasz, Radim; Dobrovolný, Petr; Řezníčková, Ladislava; Dolák, Lukáš

    2017-04-01

    Droughts are, together with floods, the most important natural extremes in the Czech Republic. In the last c. 20 years even some irregular alternations of years with severe droughts on the one hand (2000, 2003, 2007, 2011-2012, 2014-2015) and severe floods on the other (1997, 1998, 2002, 2005, 2009, 2010, 2013), reflecting greater variability of the water cycle, can be observed. Great attention devoted to the study of past, present and future of droughts in the Czech Republic in a few last years allowed to obtain basic knowledge related to long-term spatial-temporal variability of droughts, combining dendrochronological, documentary and instrumental data, synoptic causes and climate forcings of droughts, case studies of important drought anomalies with significant social-economic consequences (like drought of 1947), impacts of droughts in agriculture, forestry or water management, and future droughts according to model estimates. Basic results obtained are summarised and documented by several typical examples. Such level of drought knowledge became a basis for formulation of the new research project, trying to analyse the climate forcings and triggers involved in the occurrence, course and severity of drought events in the Czech Republic in the context of Central Europe and explanations of their physical mechanisms, based on a 515-year series of drought indices reconstructed from documentary and instrumental data. Presentation of this new project for 2017-2019 is included in the second part of the paper. (This work was supported by Czech Science Foundation, project no. 17-10026S "Drought events in the Czech Republic and their causes".)

  1. Density-dependent vulnerability of forest ecosystems to drought

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bottero, Alessandra; D'Amato, Anthony W.; Palik, Brian J.; Bradford, John B.; Fraver, Shawn; Battaglia, Mike A.; Asherin, Lance A.

    2017-01-01

    1. Climate models predict increasing drought intensity and frequency for many regions, which may have negative consequences for tree recruitment, growth and mortality, as well as forest ecosystem services. Furthermore, practical strategies for minimizing vulnerability to drought are limited. Tree population density, a metric of tree abundance in a given area, is a primary driver of competitive intensity among trees, which influences tree growth and mortality. Manipulating tree population density may be a mechanism for moderating drought-induced stress and growth reductions, although the relationship between tree population density and tree drought vulnerability remains poorly quantified, especially across climatic gradients.2. In this study, we examined three long-term forest ecosystem experiments in two widely distributed North American pine species, ponderosa pine Pinus ponderosa (Lawson & C. Lawson) and red pine Pinus resinosa (Aiton), to better elucidate the relationship between tree population density, growth and drought. These experiments span a broad latitude and aridity range and include tree population density treatments that have been purposefully maintained for several decades. We investigated how tree population density influenced resistance (growth during drought) and resilience (growth after drought compared to pre-drought growth) of stand-level growth during and after documented drought events.3. Our results show that relative tree population density was negatively related to drought resistance and resilience, indicating that trees growing at lower densities were less vulnerable to drought. This result was apparent in all three forest ecosystems, and was consistent across species, stand age and drought intensity.4. Synthesis and applications. Our results highlighted that managing pine forest ecosystems at low tree population density represents a promising adaptive strategy for reducing the adverse impacts of drought on forest growth in coming decades

  2. Proposing a Compartmental Model for Leprosy and Parameterizing Using Regional Incidence in Brazil.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rebecca Lee Smith

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Hansen's disease (HD, or leprosy, is still considered a public health risk in much of Brazil. Understanding the dynamics of the infection at a regional level can aid in identification of targets to improve control. A compartmental continuous-time model for leprosy dynamics was designed based on understanding of the biology of the infection. The transmission coefficients for the model and the rate of detection were fit for each region using Approximate Bayesian Computation applied to paucibacillary and multibacillary incidence data over the period of 2000 to 2010, and model fit was validated on incidence data from 2011 to 2012. Regional variation was noted in detection rate, with cases in the Midwest estimated to be infectious for 10 years prior to detection compared to 5 years for most other regions. Posterior predictions for the model estimated that elimination of leprosy as a public health risk would require, on average, 44-45 years in the three regions with the highest prevalence. The model is easily adaptable to other settings, and can be studied to determine the efficacy of improved case finding on leprosy control.

  3. Proposing a Compartmental Model for Leprosy and Parameterizing Using Regional Incidence in Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Rebecca Lee

    2016-08-01

    Hansen's disease (HD), or leprosy, is still considered a public health risk in much of Brazil. Understanding the dynamics of the infection at a regional level can aid in identification of targets to improve control. A compartmental continuous-time model for leprosy dynamics was designed based on understanding of the biology of the infection. The transmission coefficients for the model and the rate of detection were fit for each region using Approximate Bayesian Computation applied to paucibacillary and multibacillary incidence data over the period of 2000 to 2010, and model fit was validated on incidence data from 2011 to 2012. Regional variation was noted in detection rate, with cases in the Midwest estimated to be infectious for 10 years prior to detection compared to 5 years for most other regions. Posterior predictions for the model estimated that elimination of leprosy as a public health risk would require, on average, 44-45 years in the three regions with the highest prevalence. The model is easily adaptable to other settings, and can be studied to determine the efficacy of improved case finding on leprosy control.

  4. Effects of human water management on California drought risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Xiaogang; Wada, Yoshihide; Wanders, Niko; Sheffield, Justin

    2017-04-01

    Contribution of human water management to the intensification or mitigation of hydrological drought over California is investigated using the PCR-GLOBWB hydrological model at 0.5˚ resolution for the period 1979-2014. We demonstrate that including water management in the modeling framework results in more accurate discharge representation. During the severe 2014 drought, water management alleviated the drought deficit by ˜50% in Southern California through reservoir operation during low flow periods. However, human water consumption (mostly irrigation) in the Central Valley increased drought duration and deficit by 50% and 50-100%, respectively. Return level analysis indicates that there is more than 50% chance that the probability of occurrence of an extreme 2014-magnitude drought event was at least doubled under the influence of human activities compared to natural variability. This impact is most significant over the San Joaquin Drainage basin with a 50% and 75% likelihood that the return period is more than 3.5 and 1.5 times larger, respectively, because of the human impact on drought. A detailed study of the relative attribution of different types of human activities (e.g., groundwater pumping, reservoir operation and irrigation) on changes in drought risk over California is conducted through a higher 10 km resolution simulation. This hydrological modeling, attribution and risk assessment framework is further extended to other drought-prone areas and major drought events in the contiguous U.S., including the 2006/2007 southeastern U.S. drought, the 2011 Texas-northern Mexico drought over the southern plains and the 2012 drought over the central Great Plains.

  5. Three-Dimensional Modeling of Wind- and Temperature-Induced Flows in the Icó-Mandantes Bay, Itaparica Reservoir, NE Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elena Matta

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available The Icó-Mandantes Bay is one of the major branches of the Itaparica Reservoir (Sub-Middle São Francisco River, Northeast Brazil and is the focus of this study. Besides the harmful algae blooms (HAB and a severe prolonged drought, the bay has a strategic importance—e.g., the eastern channel of the newly built water diversion will withdraw water from it (drinking water. This article presents the implementation of a three-dimensional (3D numerical model—pioneering for the region—using TELEMAC-3D. The aim was to investigate the 3D flows induced by moderate or extreme winds as well as by heating of the water surface. The findings showed that a windstorm increased the flow velocities (at least one order of magnitude, i.e., up to 10−1–10−2 m/s without altering significantly the circulation patterns; this occurred substantially for the heating scenario, which had, in contrast, a lower effect on velocities. In terms of the bay’s management, the main implications are: (1 the withdrawals for drinking water and irrigation agriculture should stop working during windstorms and at least three days afterwards; (2 a heating of the water surface would likely increase the risk of development of HAB in the shallow areas, so that further assessments with a water quality module are needed to support advanced remediation measures; (3 the 3D model proves to be a necessary tool to identify high risk contamination areas e.g., for installation of new aquaculture systems.

  6. Assessing the performance of two models on calculating maize actual evapotranspiration in a semi-humid and drought-prone region of China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, J.; Wang, J. L.; Zhao, C. X.; McGiffen, M. E.; Liu, J. B.; Wang, G. D.

    2017-01-01

    The two-step and one-step models for calculating evapotranspiration of maize were evaluated in a semi-humid and drought-prone region of northern China. Data were collected in the summers of 2013 and 2014 to determine relative model accuracy in calculating maize evaopotranspiration. The two-step model predicted daily evaoptranspiration with crop coefficients proposed by FAO and crop coefficient calibrated by local field data; the one-step model predicted daily evapotranspiration with coefficients derived by other researcher and coefficients calibrated by local field data. The predicted daily evapotranspiration in 2013 and 2014 growing seasons with the above two different models was both compared with the observed evapotranspiration with eddy covariance method. Furthermore, evapotranspiration in different growth stages of 2013 and 2014 maize growing seasons was predicted using the models with the local calibrated coefficients. The results indicated that calibration of models was necessary before using them to predict daily evapotranspiration. The model with the calibrated coefficients performed better with higher coefficient of determination and index of agreement and lower mean absolute error and root mean square error than before. And the two-step model better predicted daily evapotranspiration than the one-step model in our experimental field. Nevertheless, as to prediction ET of different growth stages, there still had some uncertainty when predicting evapotranspiration in different year. So the comparisons suggested that model prediction of crop evapotranspiration was practical, but requires calibration and validation with more data. Thus, considerable improvement is needed for these two models to be practical in predicting evapotranspiration for maize and other crops, more field data need to be measured, and an in-depth study still needs to be continued.

  7. Observed and CMIP5 modeled influence of large-scale circulation on summer precipitation and drought in the South-Central United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ryu, Jung-Hee; Hayhoe, Katharine

    2017-12-01

    Annual precipitation in the largely agricultural South-Central United States is characterized by a primary wet season in May and June, a mid-summer dry period in July and August, and a second precipitation peak in September and October. Of the 22 CMIP5 global climate models with sufficient output available, 16 are able to reproduce this bimodal distribution (we refer to these as "BM" models), while 6 have trouble simulating the mid-summer dry period, instead producing an extended wet season ("EW" models). In BM models, the timing and amplitude of the mid-summer westward extension of the North Atlantic Subtropical High (NASH) are realistic, while the magnitude of the Great Plains Lower Level Jet (GPLLJ) tends to be overestimated, particularly in July. In EW models, temporal variations and geophysical locations of the NASH and GPLLJ appear reasonable compared to reanalysis but their magnitudes are too weak to suppress mid-summer precipitation. During warm-season droughts, however, both groups of models reproduce the observed tendency towards a stronger NASH that remains over the region through September, and an intensification and northward extension of the GPLLJ. Similarly, future simulations from both model groups under a +1 to +3 °C transient increase in global mean temperature show decreases in summer precipitation concurrent with an enhanced NASH and an intensified GPLLJ, though models differ regarding the months in which these decreases are projected to occur: early summer in the BM models, and late summer in the EW models. Overall, these results suggest that projected future decreases in summer precipitation over the South-Central region appear to be closely related to anomalous patterns of large-scale circulation already observed and modeled during historical dry years, patterns that are consistently reproduced by CMIP5 models.

  8. A Bayesian Network-Based Probabilistic Framework for Drought Forecasting and Outlook

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ji Yae Shin

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Reliable drought forecasting is necessary to develop mitigation plans to cope with severe drought. This study developed a probabilistic scheme for drought forecasting and outlook combined with quantification of the prediction uncertainties. The Bayesian network was mainly employed as a statistical scheme for probabilistic forecasting that can represent the cause-effect relationships between the variables. The structure of the Bayesian network-based drought forecasting (BNDF model was designed using the past, current, and forecasted drought condition. In this study, the drought conditions were represented by the standardized precipitation index (SPI. The accuracy of forecasted SPIs was assessed by comparing the observed SPIs and confidence intervals (CIs, exhibiting the associated uncertainty. Then, this study suggested the drought outlook framework based on probabilistic drought forecasting results. The overall results provided sufficient agreement between the observed and forecasted drought conditions in the outlook framework.

  9. A global evaluation of streamflow drought characteristics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. K. Fleig

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available How drought is characterised depends on the purpose and region of the study and the available data. In case of regional applications or global comparison a standardisation of the methodology to characterise drought is preferable. In this study the threshold level method in combination with three common pooling procedures is applied to daily streamflow series from a wide range of hydrological regimes. Drought deficit characteristics, such as drought duration and deficit volume, are derived, and the methods are evaluated for their applicability for regional studies. Three different pooling procedures are evaluated: the moving-average procedure (MA-procedure, the inter-event time method (IT-method, and the sequent peak algorithm (SPA. The MA-procedure proved to be a flexible approach for the different series, and its parameter, the averaging interval, can easily be optimised for each stream. However, it modifies the discharge series and might introduce dependency between drought events. For the IT-method it is more difficult to find an optimal value for its parameter, the length of the excess period, in particular for flashy streams. The SPA can only be recommended as pooling procedure for the selection of annual maximum series of deficit characteristics and for very low threshold levels to ensure that events occurring shortly after major events are recognized. Furthermore, a frequency analysis of deficit volume and duration is conducted based on partial duration series of drought events. According to extreme value theory, excesses over a certain limit are Generalized Pareto (GP distributed. It was found that this model indeed performed better than or equally to other distribution models. In general, the GP-model could be used for streams of all regime types. However, for intermittent streams, zero-flow periods should be treated as censored data. For catchments with frost during the winter season, summer and winter droughts have to be analysed

  10. Assessing the impacts of droughts and heat waves at thermoelectric power plants in the United States using integrated regression, thermodynamic, and climate models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Margaret A. Cook

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Recent droughts and heat waves have revealed the vulnerability of some power plants to effects from higher temperature intake water for cooling. In this evaluation, we develop a methodology for predicting whether power plants are at risk of violating thermal pollution limits. We begin by developing a regression model of average monthly intake temperatures for open loop and recirculating cooling pond systems. We then integrate that information into a thermodynamic model of energy flows within each power plant to determine the change in cooling water temperature that occurs at each plant and the relationship of that water temperature to other plants in the river system. We use these models together with climate change models to estimate the monthly effluent temperature at twenty-six power plants in the Upper Mississippi River Basin and Texas between 2015 and 2035 to predict which ones are at risk of reaching thermal pollution limits. The intake model shows that two plants could face elevated intake temperatures between 2015 and 2035 compared to the 2010–2013 baseline. In general, a rise in ambient cooling water temperature of 1 °C could cause a drop in power output of 0.15%–0.5%. The energy balance shows that twelve plants might exceed state summer effluent limits.

  11. Is drought helping or killing dengue? Investigation of spatiotemporal relationship between dengue fever and drought

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Chieh-Han; Yu, Hwa-Lung

    2015-04-01

    Dengue Fever is a vector-borne disease that is transmitted between human and mosquitos in tropical and sub-tropical regions. Previous studies have found significant relationship between the epidemic of dengue cases and climate variables, especially temperature and precipitation. Besides, the natural phenomena (e.g., drought) are considered that significantly drop the number of dengue cases by killing vector's breeding environment. However, in Kaohsiung City, Taiwan, there are evidences that the temporal pattern of dengue is correlated to drought events. Kaohsiung City experienced two main dengue outbreaks in 2002 and 2014 that both years were confirmed with serious drought. Especially in 2014, Kaohsiung City was suffered from extremely dengue outbreak in 2014 that reported the highest number of dengue cases in the history. This study constructs the spatiotemporal model of dengue incidences and index of drought events (Standardized Precipitation Index, SPI) based on the distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM). Other meteorological measures are also included in the analysis.

  12. Hydrological Drought in the Anthropocene: Impacts of Local Water Extraction and Reservoir Regulation in the U.S.: Hydrological Drought in the Anthropocene

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wan, Wenhua [State Key Laboratory of Hydro-science and Engineering, Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing China; Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland WA USA; Zhao, Jianshi [State Key Laboratory of Hydro-science and Engineering, Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing China; Li, Hong-Yi [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland WA USA; Now at Department of Land Resources and Environmental Sciences and Institute on Ecosystems, Montana State University, Bozeman MT USA; Mishra, Ashok [Glenn Department of Civil Engineering, Clemson University, Clemson SC USA; Ruby Leung, L. [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland WA USA; Hejazi, Mohamad [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland WA USA; Wang, Wei [The Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, and Center for Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing China; Lu, Hui [The Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, and Center for Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing China; Deng, Zhiqun [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland WA USA; Demissisie, Yonas [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Washington State University, Pullman WA USA; Wang, Hao [State Key Laboratory of Hydro-science and Engineering, Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing China; State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Hydropower and Water Resources, Beijing China

    2017-11-03

    Hydrological drought is a substantial negative deviation from normal hydrologic conditions and is influenced by climate and human activities such as water management. By perturbing the streamflow regime, climate change and water management may significantly alter drought characteristics in the future. Here we utilize a high-resolution integrated modeling framework that represents water management in terms of both local surface water extraction and reservoir regulation, and use the Standardized Streamflow Index (SSI) to quantify hydrological drought. We explore the impacts of water management on hydrological drought over the contiguous US in a warming climate with and without emissions mitigation. Despite the uncertainty of climate change impacts, local surface water extraction consistently intensifies drought that dominates at the regional to national scale. However, reservoir regulation alleviates drought by enhancing summer flow downstream of reservoirs. The relative dominance of drought intensification or relief is largely determined by the water demand, with drought intensification dominating in regions with intense water demand such as the Great Plains and California, while drought relief dominates in regions with low water demand. At the national level, water management increases the spatial extent of extreme drought despite some alleviations of moderate to severe drought. In an emissions mitigation scenario with increased irrigation demand for bioenergy production, water management intensifies drought more than the business-as-usual scenario at the national level, so the impacts of emissions mitigation must be evaluated by considering its benefit in reducing warming and evapotranspiration against its effects on increasing water demand and intensifying drought.

  13. Bivariate Drought Analysis Using Streamflow Reconstruction with Tree Ring Indices in the Sacramento Basin, California, USA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jaewon Kwak

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Long-term streamflow data are vital for analysis of hydrological droughts. Using an artificial neural network (ANN model and nine tree-ring indices, this study reconstructed the annual streamflow of the Sacramento River for the period from 1560 to 1871. Using the reconstructed streamflow data, the copula method was used for bivariate drought analysis, deriving a hydrological drought return period plot for the Sacramento River basin. Results showed strong correlation among drought characteristics, and the drought with a 20-year return period (17.2 million acre-feet (MAF per year in the Sacramento River basin could be considered a critical level of drought for water shortages.

  14. Global patterns of drought recovery

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schwalm, Christopher R.; Anderegg, William R. L.; Michalak, Anna M.; Fisher, Joshua B.; Biondi, Franco; Koch, George; Litvak, Marcy; Ogle, Kiona; Shaw, John D.; Wolf, Adam; Huntzinger, Deborah N.; Schaefer, Kevin; Cook, Robert; Wei, Yaxing; Fang, Yuanyuan; Hayes, Daniel; Huang, Maoyi; Jain, Atul; Tian, Hanqin

    2017-08-09

    Drought is a recurring multi-factor phenomenon with major impacts on natural and human systems1-3. Drought is especially important for land carbon sink variability, influencing climate regulation of the terrestrial biosphere4. While 20th Century trends in drought regime are ambiguous, “more extreme extremes” as well as more frequent and severe droughts3,7 are expected in the 21st Century. Recovery time, the length of time an ecosystem requires to revert to its pre-drought functional state, is a critical metric of drought impact. Yet the spatiotemporal patterning and controls of drought recovery are largely unknown. Here we use three distinct global datasets of gross primary productivity to show that across diverse terrestrial ecosystems drought recovery times are driven by biological productivity and biodiversity, with drought length and severity of secondary importance. Recovery time, especially for extreme droughts, and the areal extent of ecosystems in recovery from drought generally increase over the 20th Century, supporting an increase globally in drought impact8. Our results indicate that if future Anthropocene droughts become more widespread as expected, that droughts will become more frequent relative to recovery time. This increases the risk of entering a new regime where vegetation never recovers to its original state and widespread degradation of the land carbon sink ensues.

  15. Improving Multi-Sensor Drought Monitoring, Prediction and Recovery Assessment Using Gravimetry Information

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aghakouchak, Amir; Tourian, Mohammad J.

    2015-04-01

    Development of reliable drought monitoring, prediction and recovery assessment tools are fundamental to water resources management. This presentation focuses on how gravimetry information can improve drought assessment. First, we provide an overview of the Global Integrated Drought Monitoring and Prediction System (GIDMaPS) which offers near real-time drought information using remote sensing observations and model simulations. Then, we present a framework for integration of satellite gravimetry information for improving drought prediction and recovery assessment. The input data include satellite-based and model-based precipitation, soil moisture estimates and equivalent water height. Previous studies show that drought assessment based on one single indicator may not be sufficient. For this reason, GIDMaPS provides drought information based on multiple drought indicators including Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Standardized Soil Moisture Index (SSI) and the Multivariate Standardized Drought Index (MSDI) which combines SPI and SSI probabilistically. MSDI incorporates the meteorological and agricultural drought conditions and provides composite multi-index drought information for overall characterization of droughts. GIDMaPS includes a seasonal prediction component based on a statistical persistence-based approach. The prediction component of GIDMaPS provides the empirical probability of drought for different severity levels. In this presentation we present a new component in which the drought prediction information based on SPI, SSI and MSDI are conditioned on equivalent water height obtained from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE). Using a Bayesian approach, GRACE information is used to evaluate persistence of drought. Finally, the deficit equivalent water height based on GRACE is used for assessing drought recovery. In this presentation, both monitoring and prediction components of GIDMaPS will be discussed, and the results from 2014

  16. Biophysical modelling of intra-ring variations in tracheid features and wood density of Pinus pinaster trees exposed to seasonal droughts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilkinson, Sarah; Ogée, Jérôme; Domec, Jean-Christophe; Rayment, Mark; Wingate, Lisa

    2015-03-01

    Process-based models that link seasonally varying environmental signals to morphological features within tree rings are essential tools to predict tree growth response and commercially important wood quality traits under future climate scenarios. This study evaluated model portrayal of radial growth and wood anatomy observations within a mature maritime pine (Pinus pinaster (L.) Aït.) stand exposed to seasonal droughts. Intra-annual variations in tracheid anatomy and wood density were identified through image analysis and X-ray densitometry on stem cores covering the growth period 1999-2010. A cambial growth model was integrated with modelled plant water status and sugar availability from the soil-plant-atmosphere transfer model MuSICA to generate estimates of cell number, cell volume, cell mass and wood density on a weekly time step. The model successfully predicted inter-annual variations in cell number, ring width and maximum wood density. The model was also able to predict the occurrence of special anatomical features such as intra-annual density fluctuations (IADFs) in growth rings. Since cell wall thickness remained surprisingly constant within and between growth rings, variations in wood density were primarily the result of variations in lumen diameter, both in the model and anatomical data. In the model, changes in plant water status were identified as the main driver of the IADFs through a direct effect on cell volume. The anatomy data also revealed that a trade-off existed between hydraulic safety and hydraulic efficiency. Although a simplified description of cambial physiology is presented, this integrated modelling approach shows potential value for identifying universal patterns of tree-ring growth and anatomical features over a broad climatic gradient. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  17. Drought interactions with the carbon cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Molen, Michiel; Dolman, Han

    2010-05-01

    Severe droughts occurred in Europe, the Amazon and western North America during the last few decades, and may foreshadow future impacts of climate change on biosphere carbon fluxes and storage. Research interest in the impact of drought on the carbon cycle is increasing rapidly. Drought impacts on the carbon cycle are traditionally studied from different disciplinary perspectives, but an integrated view is urgently needed. While the short-term effects of drought on terrestrial carbon exchange have been relatively well studied, the perception of the importance of longer-term effects emerges. Our knowledge of longer-term effects suffers from the scattered origin of experimental and observational data, which challenges the integration in biogeochemistry and dynamic vegetation models. Here we bring together information from different science disciplines, identify knowledge gaps, and discuss the implications of our findings. Our main message is that short term effects on gross primary production (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (Reco) and longer-term effects (carry-over effects, mortality, species competition, soil carbon dynamics) are fundamentally different, but are connected through differences in species' strategies and soil properties. To understand drought effects on the carbon cycle, vegetation models should be more oriented towards plant strategies than to plant functional types and we need soil models that better address stability and turnover on long time scales.

  18. Report: the current situation of sanitary landfills in Brazil and the importance of the application of economic models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neto, Raul Oliveira; Petter, Carlos Otávio; Cortina, José Luis

    2009-12-01

    We present the development stage of the sanitary landfills in Brazil in the context of urban solid residue management, demonstrating the necessity and importance of the employment of economic models. In the article, a cost estimate model is proposed as the basis for studies to be applied by sector management, including the city council, companies, consultants and engineers, contributing to the choice of new areas, public bids, municipal consortia and private public partnerships.

  19. Drought in Northeast Brazil—past, present, and future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marengo, Jose A.; Torres, Roger Rodrigues; Alves, Lincoln Muniz

    2017-08-01

    This study provides an overview of the drought situation in Northeast Brazil for the past, present, and future. Droughts affect more people than any other natural hazard owing to their large scale and long-lasting nature. They are recurrent in the region and while some measures have been taken by the governments to mitigate their impacts, there is still a perception that residents, mainly in rural areas, are not yet adapted to these hazards. The drought affecting the Northeast from 2012 to 2015, however, has had an intensity and impact not seen in several decades and has already destroyed large swaths of cropland, affecting hundreds of cities and towns across the region, and leaving ranchers struggling to feed and water cattle. Future climate projections for the area show large temperature increases and rainfall reductions, which, together with a tendency for longer periods with consecutive dry days, suggest the occurrence of more frequent/intense dry spells and droughts and a tendency toward aridification in the region. All these conditions lead to an increase in evaporation from reservoirs and lakes, affecting irrigation and agriculture as well as key water uses including hydropower and industry, and thus, the welfare of the residents. Integrating drought monitoring and seasonal forecasting provides efficient means of assessing impacts of climate variability and change, identifying vulnerabilities, and allowing for better adaptation measures not only for medium- and long-term climate change but also for extremes of the interannual climate variability, particularly droughts.

  20. Modeling distribution of Phoneutria bahiensis (Araneae: Ctenidae: an endemic and threatened spider from Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcelo A Dias

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available Phoneutria bahiensis Simó & Brescovit, 2001 is a large ctenid spider inhabiting the states of Bahia and Espírito Santo, Brazil. Considering that it is probably endemic, this species was included in the Brazilian red book of threatened species. Here, we predict the distribution range of P. bahiensis using 19 bioclimatic variables in the model design. The most septentrional record for this spider was indicated for northern Bahia. The model predicts that the distribution range covers the Atlantic Forest from the state of Paraíba to Rio de Janeiro, with the best suitable area in the Atlantic Forest of the state of Bahia. The bioclimatic variable with the best contribution to the model was precipitation in the driest quarter. Based on collected data, the species inhabits Ombrophilous Forests and Restinga vegetation, two ecosystems of the Atlantic Forest biome. In the best-predicted area of distribution, eleven Conservation Units were included. This information could be considered for future conservation plans of this species.

  1. Water regime and growth of young oak stands subjected to air-warming and drought on two different forest soils in a model ecosystem experiment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuster, T M; Arend, M; Bleuler, P; Günthardt-Goerg, M S; Schulin, R

    2013-01-01

    Global climate change is expected to increase annual temperatures and decrease summer precipitation in Central Europe. Little is known of how forests respond to the interaction of these climate factors and if their responses depend on soil conditions. In a 3-year lysimeter experiment, we investigated the growth response of young mixed oak stands, on either acidic or calcareous soil, to soil water regime, air-warming and drought treatments corresponding to an intermediate climate change scenario. The air-warming and drought treatments were applied separately as well as in combination. The air-warming treatment had no effect on soil water availability, evapotranspiration or stand biomass. Decreased evapotranspiration from the drought-exposed stands led to significantly higher air and soil temperatures, which were attributed to impaired transpirational cooling. Water limitation significantly reduced the stand foliage, shoot and root biomass as droughts were severe, as shown in low leaf water potentials. Additional air warming did not enhance the drought effects on evapotranspiration and biomass, although more negative leaf water potentials were observed. After re-watering, evapotranspiration increased within a few days to pre-drought levels. Stands not subjected to the drought treatment produced significantly less biomass on the calcareous soil than on the acidic soil, probably due to P or Mn limitation. There was no difference in biomass and water regime between the two soils under drought conditions, indicating that nutrient availability was governed by water availability under these conditions. The results demonstrate that young oak stands can cope with severe drought and therefore can be considered for future forestry. © 2012 German Botanical Society and The Royal Botanical Society of the Netherlands.

  2. The challenges of empirical impact prediction with monitored drought indices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stahl, Kerstin; Bachmair, Sophie; Blauhut, Veit; Kohn, Irene; Tijdeman, Erik

    2017-04-01

    Drought monitoring and early warning still relies primarily on drought indicators selected or combined from hydro-meteorological variables, such as precipitation, modeled soil moisture, observed or modeled streamflow, and in some cases remotely sensed vegetation health. To guide the selection and give these indices more meaning for drought management decisions, a number of studies have investigated empirically the linkage between these indices and records of drought impact occurrence. These studies have been inspired by the damage function approach employed in risk assessments of other natural hazards. In this contribution we systematically review and assess the feasibility of finding impact-indicator link functions suitable for prediction. Impact information was derived from large archives of text-based, coded impact reports, such as the European Drought Impact report Inventory and the US Drought Impact Reporter and link functions were analyzed at various spatial scales for various subsets of impact types and drought events. The identified challenges include the rapid decrease of data when subsetting for specific impact sectors or smaller spatial areas, the choice of the link model, and a variety of potential dynamic changes to the underlying conditions between and even during drought events. Based on the assessment, recommendations for a successful and applicable link model include in particular a careful pre-processing of index and impact data and more systematic impact data collection in the future.

  3. Statistical trends of some meteorological drought indices in Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diaz Loaiza, Andres; Roper, Aaron; Guimarães, Gabriela; Ward, Philip; Aerts, Jeroen

    2017-04-01

    Out of all the natural phenomena that afflict human society, droughts are one of the most damaging. Droughts have been estimated to cost an average of 6 to 8 billion dollars in damages per year, yet they are often overlooked in comparison to other natural disasters, because they are invisible to the naked eye, and quite difficult to measure. The presented research display a developed methodology to assess the behavior of different meteorological drought indices on a continental scale in Europe. Firstly, is assessed the behavior on varying temporal scales, and secondly, it is determine whether or not droughts have become more frequent and/or intense in recent decades. Results over the analyzed period (1950 to 2014), shows that the frequency of meteorological drought events are slightly increasing (in the SPEI index). Instead for the SPI index, this trend is not patent probably because of his own definition. About the intensity, in contrast, it seems the events are become more intense. A plausible conclusion is that the quantity of annually events of drought over Europe are conserved, but the same are becoming longer and intense. The findings of this research emphasize the impacts that climate change and increasing temperatures will have on drought impacts and the need for water management sectors to incorporate that knowledge into the consumption and protection of water resources. The advantage of using geospatial techniques into the drought monitoring, like the kriging interpolation used in the present model, allow us to comprehensively analyze drought events in different time and spatial scales.

  4. Towards Developing a Regional Drought Information System for Lower Mekong

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dutta, R.; Jayasinghe, S.; Basnayake, S. B.; Apirumanekul, C.; Pudashine, J.; Granger, S. L.; Andreadis, K.; Das, N. N.

    2016-12-01

    With the climate and weather patterns changing over the years, the Lower Mekong Basin have been experiencing frequent and prolonged droughts resulting in severe damage to the agricultural sector affecting food security and livelihoods of the farming community. However, the Regional Drought Information System (RDIS) for Lower Mekong countries would help prepare vulnerable communities from frequent and severe droughts through monitoring, assessing and forecasting of drought conditions and allowing decision makers to take effective decisions in terms of providing early warning, incentives to farmers, and adjustments to cropping calendars and so on. The RDIS is an integrated system that is being designed for drought monitoring, analysis and forecasting based on the need to meet the growing demand of an effective monitoring system for drought by the lower Mekong countries. The RDIS is being built on four major components that includes earth observation component, meteorological data component, database storage and Regional Hydrologic Extreme Assessment System (RHEAS) framework while the outputs from the system will be made open access to the public through a web-based user interface. The system will run on the RHEAS framework that allows both nowcasting and forecasting using hydrological and crop simulation models such as the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model and the Decision Support System for Agro-Technology Transfer (DSSAT) model respectively. The RHEAS allows for a tightly constrained observation based drought and crop yield information system that can provide customized outputs on drought that includes root zone soil moisture, Standard Precipitation Index (SPI), Standard Runoff Index (SRI), Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) and Crop Yield and can integrate remote sensing products, along with evapotranspiration and soil moisture data. The anticipated outcomes from the RDIS is to improve the operational, technological and institutional capabilities of

  5. Future Projections of Fire Occurrence in Brazil Using EC-Earth Climate Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patrícia Silva

    Full Text Available Abstract Fire has a fundamental role in the Earth system as it influences global and local ecosystem patterns and processes, such as vegetation distribution and structure, the carbon cycle and climate. Since, in the global context, Brazil is one of the regions with higher fire activity, an assessment is here performed of the sensitivity of the wildfire regime in Brazilian savanna and shrubland areas to changes in regional climate during the 21st Century, for an intermediate scenario (RCP4.5 of climate change. The assessment is based on a spatial and temporal analysis of a meteorological fire danger index specifically developed for Brazilian biomes, which was evaluated based on regional climate simulations of temperature, relative humidity and precipitation using the Rossby Centre Regional Climate Model (RCA4 forced by the EC-Earth earth system model. Results show a systematic increase in the extreme levels of fire danger throughout the 21st Century that mainly results from the increase in maximum daily temperature, which rises by about 2 °C between 2005 and 2100. This study provides new insights about projected fire activity in Brazilian woody savannas associated to climate change and is expected to benefit the user community, from governmental policies to land management and climate researches.

  6. 2.5D Modeling of TEM Data Applied to Hidrogeological Studies in PARANÁ Basin, Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bortolozo, C. A.; Porsani, J. L.; Santos, F. M.

    2013-12-01

    The transient electromagnetic method (TEM) is used all over the world and has shown great potential in hydrological, hazardous waste site characterization, mineral exploration, general geological mapping, and geophysical reconnaissance. However, the behavior of TEM fields are very complex and is not yet fully understood. Forward modeling is one of the most common and effective methods to understand the physical behavior and significance of the electromagnetics responses of a TEM sounding. Until now, there are a limited number of solutions for the 2D forward problem for TEM. More rare are the descriptions of a three-component response of a 3D source over 2D earth, which is the so-called 2.5D. The 2.5D approach is more realistic than the conventional 2D source previous used, once normally the source cannot be realistic represented for a 2D approximation (normally source are square loops). At present the 2.5D model represents the only way of interpreting TEM data in terms of a complex earth, due to the prohibitive amount of computer time and storage required for a full 3D model. In this work we developed a TEM modeling program for understanding the different responses and how the magnetic and electric fields, produced by loop sources at air-earth interface, behave in different geoelectrical distributions. The models used in the examples are proposed focusing hydrogeological studies, once the main objective of this work is for detecting different kinds of aquifers in Paraná sedimentary basin, in São Paulo State - Brazil. The program was developed in MATLAB, a widespread language very common in the scientific community.

  7. Monthly hydrometeorological ensemble prediction of streamflow droughts and corresponding drought indices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fundel, F.; Jörg-Hess, S.; Zappa, M.

    2013-01-01

    Streamflow droughts, characterized by low runoff as consequence of a drought event, affect numerous aspects of life. Economic sectors that are impacted by low streamflow are, e.g., power production, agriculture, tourism, water quality management and shipping. Those sectors could potentially benefit from forecasts of streamflow drought events, even of short events on the monthly time scales or below. Numerical hydrometeorological models have increasingly been used to forecast low streamflow and have become the focus of recent research. Here, we consider daily ensemble runoff forecasts for the river Thur, which has its source in the Swiss Alps. We focus on the evaluation of low streamflow and of the derived indices as duration, severity and magnitude, characterizing streamflow droughts up to a lead time of one month. The ECMWF VarEPS 5-member ensemble reforecast, which covers 18 yr, is used as forcing for the hydrological model PREVAH. A thorough verification reveals that, compared to probabilistic peak-flow forecasts, which show skill up to a lead time of two weeks, forecasts of streamflow droughts are skilful over the entire forecast range of one month. For forecasts at the lower end of the runoff regime, the quality of the initial state seems to be crucial to achieve a good forecast quality in the longer range. It is shown that the states used in this study to initialize forecasts satisfy this requirement. The produced forecasts of streamflow drought indices, derived from the ensemble forecasts, could be beneficially included in a decision-making process. This is valid for probabilistic forecasts of streamflow drought events falling below a daily varying threshold, based on a quantile derived from a runoff climatology. Although the forecasts have a tendency to overpredict streamflow droughts, it is shown that the relative economic value of the ensemble forecasts reaches up to 60%, in case a forecast user is able to take preventive action based on the forecast.

  8. Monthly hydrometeorological ensemble prediction of streamflow droughts and corresponding drought indices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Fundel

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Streamflow droughts, characterized by low runoff as consequence of a drought event, affect numerous aspects of life. Economic sectors that are impacted by low streamflow are, e.g., power production, agriculture, tourism, water quality management and shipping. Those sectors could potentially benefit from forecasts of streamflow drought events, even of short events on the monthly time scales or below. Numerical hydrometeorological models have increasingly been used to forecast low streamflow and have become the focus of recent research. Here, we consider daily ensemble runoff forecasts for the river Thur, which has its source in the Swiss Alps. We focus on the evaluation of low streamflow and of the derived indices as duration, severity and magnitude, characterizing streamflow droughts up to a lead time of one month.

    The ECMWF VarEPS 5-member ensemble reforecast, which covers 18 yr, is used as forcing for the hydrological model PREVAH. A thorough verification reveals that, compared to probabilistic peak-flow forecasts, which show skill up to a lead time of two weeks, forecasts of streamflow droughts are skilful over the entire forecast range of one month. For forecasts at the lower end of the runoff regime, the quality of the initial state seems to be crucial to achieve a good forecast quality in the longer range. It is shown that the states used in this study to initialize forecasts satisfy this requirement. The produced forecasts of streamflow drought indices, derived from the ensemble forecasts, could be beneficially included in a decision-making process. This is valid for probabilistic forecasts of streamflow drought events falling below a daily varying threshold, based on a quantile derived from a runoff climatology. Although the forecasts have a tendency to overpredict streamflow droughts, it is shown that the relative economic value of the ensemble forecasts reaches up to 60%, in case a forecast user is able to take preventive

  9. Assessing vulnerability to drought: identifying underlying factors across Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Urquijo, Julia; Gonzalez Tánago, Itziar; Ballesteros, Mario; De Stefano, Lucia

    2015-04-01

    Drought is considered one of the most severe and damaging natural hazards in terms of people and sectors affected and associated losses. Drought is a normal and recurrent climatic phenomenon that occurs worldwide, although its spatial and temporal characteristics vary significantly among climates. In the case of Europe, in the last thirty years, the region has suffered several drought events that have caused estimated economic damages over a €100 billion and have affected almost 20% of its territory and population. In recent years, there has been a growing awareness among experts and authorities of the need to shift from a reactive crisis approach to a drought risk management approach, as well as of the importance of designing and implementing policies, strategies and plans at country and river basin levels to deal with drought. The identification of whom and what is vulnerable to drought is a central aspect of drought risk mitigation and planning and several authors agree that societal vulnerability often determines drought risk more than the actual precipitation shortfalls. The final aim of a drought vulnerability assessment is to identify the underlying sources of drought impact, in order to develop policy options that help to enhance coping capacity and therefore to prevent drought impact. This study identifies and maps factors underlying vulnerability to drought across Europe. The identification of factors influencing vulnerability starts from the analysis of past drought impacts in four European socioeconomic sectors. This analysis, along with an extensive literature review, led to the selection of vulnerability factors that are both relevant and adequate for the European context. Adopting the IPCC model, vulnerability factors were grouped to describe exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. The aggregation of these components has resulted in the mapping of vulnerability to drought across Europe at NUTS02 level. Final results have been compared with

  10. Evidence of increasing drought severity caused by temperature rise in southern Europe

    OpenAIRE

    Vicente Serrano, Sergio M.; López-Moreno, Juan I.; Beguería, Santiago; Lorenzo-Lacruz, Jorge; Sánchez-Lorenzo, Arturo; García-Ruiz, José María; Azorín-Molina, César; Morán-Tejeda, Enrique; Revuelto, Jesús; Trigo, Ricardo M.; Coelho, Fatima; Espejo,Francisco

    2014-01-01

    We use high quality climate data from ground meteorological stations in the Iberian Peninsula (IP) and robust drought indices to confirm that drought severity has increased in the past five decades, as a consequence of greater atmospheric evaporative demand resulting from temperature rise. Increased drought severity is independent of the model used to quantify the reference evapotranspiration. We have also focused on drought impacts to droughtsensitive systems, such as river di...

  11. Drought forecasting: Methodological topics from a systems perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krzysztofowicz, R.

    1991-12-01

    A systemic framework is presented for organizing knowledge about drought forecasting. It includes these topics: couplings among a descriptive drought model, monitoring system, and forecasting system; propagation of uncertainties; types of forecasts and attributes of performance such as the lead time and skill; sufficient measures of skill and economic value of forecasts; theoretical and operational limits of predictability; and the interface between forecasts and drought management decisions. Reviews of operational forecasts of the seasonal snowmelt runoff volumes and forecasts of the seasonal cyclone frequencies. temperature, and precipitation in the United States illustrate the methodological topics, outline the present limits of drought predictability, and suggest promising research paths. Among them are modeling of forecast uncertainties and their propagation from states of atmospheric circulation to states of a hydrologic regime, and exploring novel forms of the hydro-meteorologic coupling that would extend the lead time and/or increase the skill of long-range drought forecasts.

  12. Short-term estimation of GNSS TEC using a neural network model in Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferreira, Arthur Amaral; Borges, Renato Alves; Paparini, Claudia; Ciraolo, Luigi; Radicella, Sandro M.

    2017-10-01

    This work presents a novel Neural Network (NN) model to estimate Total Electron Content (TEC) from Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) measurements in three distinct sectors in Brazil. The purpose of this work is to start the investigations on the development of a regional model that can be used to determine the vertical TEC over Brazil, aiming future applications on a near real-time frame estimations and short-term forecasting. The NN is used to estimate the GNSS TEC values at void locations, where no dual-frequency GNSS receiver that may be used as a source of data to GNSS TEC estimation is available. This approach is particularly useful for GNSS single-frequency users that rely on corrections of ionospheric range errors by TEC models. GNSS data from the first GLONASS network for research and development (GLONASS R&D network) installed in Latin America, and from the Brazilian Network for Continuous Monitoring of the GNSS (RMBC) were used on TEC calibration. The input parameters of the NN model are based on features known to influence TEC values, such as geographic location of the GNSS receiver, magnetic activity, seasonal and diurnal variations, and solar activity. Data from two ten-days periods (from DoY 154 to 163 and from 282 to 291) are used to train the network. Three distinct analyses have been carried out in order to assess time-varying and spatial performance of the model. At the spatial performance analysis, for each region, a set of stations is chosen to provide training data to the NN, and after the training procedure, the NN is used to estimate vTEC behavior for the test station which data were not presented to the NN in training process. An analysis is done by comparing, for each testing station, the estimated NN vTEC delivered by the NN and reference calibrated vTEC. Also, as a second analysis, the network ability to forecast one day after the time interval (DoY 292) based on information of the second period of investigation is also assessed

  13. Global patterns of drought recovery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwalm, Christopher R.; Anderegg, William R. L.; Michalak, Anna M.; Fisher, Joshua B.; Biondi, Franco; Koch, George; Litvak, Marcy; Ogle, Kiona; Shaw, John D.; Wolf, Adam; Huntzinger, Deborah N.; Schaefer, Kevin; Cook, Robert; Wei, Yaxing; Fang, Yuanyuan; Hayes, Daniel; Huang, Maoyi; Jain, Atul; Tian, Hanqin

    2017-08-01

    Drought, a recurring phenomenon with major impacts on both human and natural systems, is the most widespread climatic extreme that negatively affects the land carbon sink. Although twentieth-century trends in drought regimes are ambiguous, across many regions more frequent and severe droughts are expected in the twenty-first century. Recovery time—how long an ecosystem requires to revert to its pre-drought functional state—is a critical metric of drought impact. Yet the factors influencing drought recovery and its spatiotemporal patterns at the global scale are largely unknown. Here we analyse three independent datasets of gross primary productivity and show that, across diverse ecosystems, drought recovery times are strongly associated with climate and carbon cycle dynamics, with biodiversity and CO2 fertilization as secondary factors. Our analysis also provides two key insights into the spatiotemporal patterns of drought recovery time: first, that recovery is longest in the tropics and high northern latitudes (both vulnerable areas of Earth’s climate system) and second, that drought impacts (assessed using the area of ecosystems actively recovering and time to recovery) have increased over the twentieth century. If droughts become more frequent, as expected, the time between droughts may become shorter than drought recovery time, leading to permanently damaged ecosystems and widespread degradation of the land carbon sink.

  14. Global patterns of drought recovery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwalm, Christopher R; Anderegg, William R L; Michalak, Anna M; Fisher, Joshua B; Biondi, Franco; Koch, George; Litvak, Marcy; Ogle, Kiona; Shaw, John D; Wolf, Adam; Huntzinger, Deborah N; Schaefer, Kevin; Cook, Robert; Wei, Yaxing; Fang, Yuanyuan; Hayes, Daniel; Huang, Maoyi; Jain, Atul; Tian, Hanqin

    2017-08-09

    Drought, a recurring phenomenon with major impacts on both human and natural systems, is the most widespread climatic extreme that negatively affects the land carbon sink. Although twentieth-century trends in drought regimes are ambiguous, across many regions more frequent and severe droughts are expected in the twenty-first century. Recovery time-how long an ecosystem requires to revert to its pre-drought functional state-is a critical metric of drought impact. Yet the factors influencing drought recovery and its spatiotemporal patterns at the global scale are largely unknown. Here we analyse three independent datasets of gross primary productivity and show that, across diverse ecosystems, drought recovery times are strongly associated with climate and carbon cycle dynamics, with biodiversity and CO2 fertilization as secondary factors. Our analysis also provides two key insights into the spatiotemporal patterns of drought recovery time: first, that recovery is longest in the tropics and high northern latitudes (both vulnerable areas of Earth's climate system) and second, that drought impacts (assessed using the area of ecosystems actively recovering and time to recovery) have increased over the twentieth century. If droughts become more frequent, as expected, the time between droughts may become shorter than drought recovery time, leading to permanently damaged ecosystems and widespread degradation of the land carbon sink.

  15. Introduction 'Governance for Drought Resilience'

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bressers, Nanny; Bressers, Johannes T.A.; Larrue, Corinne; Bressers, Hans; Bressers, Nanny; Larrue, Corinne

    2016-01-01

    This book is about governance for drought resilience. But that simple sentence alone might rouse several questions. Because what do we mean with drought, and how does that relate to water scarcity? And what do we mean with resilience, and why is resilience needed for tackling drought? And how does

  16. Drought impacts and resilience on crops via evapotranspiration estimations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Timmermans, Joris; Asadollahi Dolatabad, Saeid

    2015-04-01

    Currently, the global needs for food and water is at a critical level. It has been estimated that 12.5 % of the global population suffers from malnutrition and 768 million people still do not have access to clean drinking water. This need is increasing because of population growth but also by climate change. Changes in precipitation patterns will result either in flooding or droughts. Consequently availability, usability and affordability of water is becoming challenge and efficient use of water and water management is becoming more important, particularly during severe drought events. Drought monitoring for agricultural purposes is very hard. While meteorological drought can accurately be monitored using precipitation only, estimating agricultural drought is more difficult. This is because agricultural drought is dependent on the meteorological drought, the impacts on the vegetation, and the resilience of the crops. As such not only precipitation estimates are required but also evapotranspiration at plant/plot scale. Evapotranspiration (ET) describes the amount of water evaporated from soil and vegetation. As 65% of precipitation is lost by ET, drought severity is highly linked with this variable. In drought research, the precise quantification of ET and its spatio-temporal variability is therefore essential. In this view, remote sensing based models to estimate ET, such as SEBAL and SEBS, are of high value. However the resolution of current evapotranspiration products are not good enough for monitoring the impact of the droughts on the specific crops. This limitation originates because plot scales are in general smaller than the resolution of the available satellite ET products. As such remote sensing estimates of evapotranspiration are always a combination of different land surface types and cannot be used for plant health and drought resilience studies. The goal of this research is therefore to enable adequate resolutions of daily evapotranspiration estimates

  17. Analysis of Freight Trip Generation Model for Food and Beverage in Belo Horizonte (Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leise Kelli de Oliveira

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Today, one of the main challenges faced in urban logistics is the distribution of goods. In Brazil, mid to large cities have experienced consequences of unplanned urban sprawl and lack of adequate transportation infrastructure. The relationship between urban planning and transport stands out the attractiveness of some urban activities with direct impacts on the movement of people and goods and other component elements of urban space. The segment of bars and restaurants falls within this context, therefore is a vital activity responsible for significant percentage of jobs and revenue in a city. Altogether, foods & beverages commercial activities move daily large volumes of goods to meet the need of customers. This paper presents the results of a freight trip generation model developed for pubs and restaurants in Belo Horizonte (Brazil. Once performed the model determined the number of trips generated per day per establishment. In order to expand the discrete result to a continuous one, the results were geographically interpolated to a continuous surface and extrapolated within the city limits. The data for the freight trip generation model were obtained by survey. For this, we designed a structured questionnaire to obtain information about goods, frequency, operational time, place of performance of the loading/unloading of goods, establishment size and the number of employees. Besides these information, we investigated the acceptance of alternative practices in the delivery of goods, such as off-peak delivery. To accomplish the proposed models, we applied a simple linear regression, correlating the following variables: (i Number of trips versus area of the establishment; (ii Number of trips versus number of employees; (iii Number of trips versus operation day of the establishment. With the results of the linear regression for travel generations, conducted the data interpolation based on the standard deviation of the results to define the sample

  18. Geographic Distribution of Chagas Disease Vectors in Brazil Based on Ecological Niche Modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rodrigo Gurgel-Gonçalves

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Although Brazil was declared free from Chagas disease transmission by the domestic vector Triatoma infestans, human acute cases are still being registered based on transmission by native triatomine species. For a better understanding of transmission risk, the geographic distribution of Brazilian triatomines was analyzed. Sixteen out of 62 Brazilian species that both occur in >20 municipalities and present synanthropic tendencies were modeled based on their ecological niches. Panstrongylus geniculatus and P. megistus showed broad ecological ranges, but most of the species sort out by the biome in which they are distributed: Rhodnius pictipes and R. robustus in the Amazon; R. neglectus, Triatoma sordida, and T. costalimai in the Cerrado; R. nasutus, P. lutzi, T. brasiliensis, T. pseudomaculata, T. melanocephala, and T. petrocchiae in the Caatinga; T. rubrovaria in the southern pampas; T. tibiamaculata and T. vitticeps in the Atlantic Forest. Although most occurrences were recorded in open areas (Cerrado and Caatinga, our results show that all environmental conditions in the country are favorable to one or more of the species analyzed, such that almost nowhere is Chagas transmission risk negligible.

  19. Application of agrometeorological spectral model in rice area in southern Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leivas, Janice F.; de C. Teixeira, Antonio Heriberto; Andrade, Ricardo G.; de C. Victoria, Daniel; Bayma-Silva, Gustavo; Bolfe, Edson L.

    2015-10-01

    The southern region is responsible for 70% of rice production in Brazil. In this study, rice areas of Rio Grande do Sul were selected, using the land use classification, scale 1: 100,000, provided by Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). MODIS Images were used and meteorological data, available by National Institute of Meteorology (INMET). The period of analysis was crop season 2011/2012, October to March. To obtain evapotranspiration was applied agrometeorological-spectral model SAFER (Simple Algorithm For Retrieving Evapotranspiration). From the analysis of the results, on planting and cultivation period , the average evapotranspiration (ET) daily was 1.93 +/- 0.96 mm.day-1. In the vegetative development period of rice, the daily ET has achieved 4.94 mm.day-1, with average value 2,31+/- 0.97 mm.day-1. In the period of harvest, evapotranspiration daily average was 1.84 +/- 0.80 mm.day-1. From results obtained, the estimation of evapotranspiration from satellite images may assist in monitoring the culture during the cycle, assisting in estimates of water productivity and crop yield.

  20. Geologic conceptual model of the municipality of Sete Lagoas (MG, Brazil) and the surroundings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galvão, Paulo; Hirata, Ricardo; Cordeiro, Arnaldo; Barbati, Daniela; Peñaranda, Jorge

    2016-03-01

    The study area is located in the state of Minas Gerais, Brazil, among the municipalities of Pedro Leopoldo, Matozinhos, and Sete Lagoas, with Velhas River as the eastern boundary. It is located in the São Francisco Craton, where carbonated argillo-arenaceous sediments are emplaced giving origin to the Bambuí Group, in the São Francisco Basin. Despite the geological knowledge previously developed, the region needs work on integration and detailing of such information. For this reason, the main objective was to contribute to the quality of the geologic cartography, the spatial distribution, and the structural framework geometry. Thus, geologic mapping, aerial photography interpretation, and evaluation of 270 lithologic well profiles were carried out. It was possible to establish a new geologic perspective of the region by obtaining the detailed geologic map of the municipality of Sete Lagoas, 14 geologic cross sections, and a geologic conceptual model. The study showed that the area is within a basin border, presenting a geometry conditioned by horst and graben system controlled by faulting. This structural feature displaced stratigraphic sequences positioning them side by side with lithologic sequences with different ages.

  1. Geologic conceptual model of the municipality of Sete Lagoas (MG, Brazil and the surroundings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    PAULO GALVÃO

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT The study area is located in the state of Minas Gerais, Brazil, among the municipalities of Pedro Leopoldo, Matozinhos, and Sete Lagoas, with Velhas River as the eastern boundary. It is located in the São Francisco Craton, where carbonated argillo-arenaceous sediments are emplaced giving origin to the Bambuí Group, in the São Francisco Basin. Despite the geological knowledge previously developed, the region needs work on integration and detailing of such information. For this reason, the main objective was to contribute to the quality of the geologic cartography, the spatial distribution, and the structural framework geometry. Thus, geologic mapping, aerial photography interpretation, and evaluation of 270 lithologic well profiles were carried out. It was possible to establish a new geologic perspective of the region by obtaining the detailed geologic map of the municipality of Sete Lagoas, 14 geologic cross sections, and a geologic conceptual model. The study showed that the area is within a basin border, presenting a geometry conditioned by horst and graben system controlled by faulting. This structural feature displaced stratigraphic sequences positioning them side by side with lithologic sequences with different ages.

  2. Climatic consequences of adopting drought tolerant vegetation over Los Angeles as a response to California drought

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ban-Weiss, G. A.; Vahmani, P.

    2016-12-01

    During 2012-2014, drought in California resulted in policies to reduce water consumption. One measure pursued was replacing lawns with landscapes that minimize water consumption, such as drought tolerant vegetation. If implemented at broad scale, this strategy would result in reductions in irrigation, and changes in land surface characteristics. In this study, we employ a modified regional climate model to assess the climatic consequences of adopting drought tolerant vegetation over the Los Angeles metropolitan area. Transforming lawns to drought tolerant vegetation resulted in daytime warming of up to 1.9°C, largely due to decreases in irrigation that shifted surface energy partitioning toward higher sensible and lower latent heat flux. During nighttime, however, adopting drought tolerant vegetation caused mean cooling of about 3°C, due to changes in soil thermodynamic properties and heat exchange dynamics between the surface and ground. Our results show that nocturnal cooling effects, which are larger in magnitude and of great importance for public health during heat events, could counterbalance the daytime warming attributed to the studied water conservation strategy. A more aggressive implementation, assuming all urban vegetation was replaced with drought tolerant vegetation, resulted in an average daytime cooling of 0.2°C, largely due to weakened sea-breeze patterns, highlighting the important role of land surface roughness in this coastal megacity.

  3. Climate and Hydrological Data Analysis for hydrological and solute transport modelling purposes in the Muriaé River basin, Atlantic Forest Biome, SE Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santos, Juliana; Künne, Annika; Kralisch, Sven; Fink, Manfred; Brenning, Alexander

    2016-04-01

    The Muriaé River basin in SE Brazil has been experiencing an increasing pressure on water resources, due to the population growth of the Rio de Janeiro urban area connected with the growth of the industrial and agricultural sector. This leads to water scarcity, riverine forest degradation, soil erosion and water quality problems among other impacts. Additionally the region has been suffering with seasonal precipitation variations leading to extreme events such as droughts, floods and landslides. Climate projections for the near future indicate a high inter-annual variability of rainfall with an increase in the frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall events combined with a statistically significant increase in the duration of dry periods and a reduced duration of wet periods. This may lead to increased soil erosion during the wet season, while the longer dry periods may reduce the vegetation cover, leaving the soil even more exposed and vulnerable to soil erosion. In consequence, it is crucial to understand how climate affects the interaction between the timing of extreme rainfall events, hydrological processes, vegetation growth, soil cover and soil erosion. In this context, physically-based hydrological modelling can contribute to a better understanding of spatial-temporal process dynamics in the Earth's system and support Integrated Water Resourses Management (IWRM) and adaptation strategies. The study area is the Muriaé river basin which has an area of approx. 8000 km² in Minas Gerais and Rio de Janeiro States. The basin is representative of a region of domain of hillslopes areas with the predominancy of pasture for livestock production. This study will present some of the relevant analyses which have been carried out on data (climate and streamflow) prior to using them for hydrological modelling, including consistency checks, homogeneity, pattern and statistical analyses, or annual and seasonal trends detection. Several inconsistencies on the raw data were

  4. Floods and droughts: friends or foes?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prudhomme, Christel

    2017-04-01

    Water hazards are some of the biggest threats to lives and livelihoods globally, causing serious damages to society and infrastructure. But floods and droughts are an essential part of the hydrological regime that ensures fundamental ecosystem functions, providing natural ways to bring in nutrients, flush out pollutants and enabling soils, rivers and lakes natural biodiversity to thrive. Traditionally, floods and droughts are too often considered separately, with scientific advance in process understanding, modelling, statistical characterisation and impact assessment are often done independently, possibly delaying the development of innovative methods that could be applied to both. This talk will review some of the key characteristics of floods and droughts, highlighting differences and commonalties, losses and benefits, with the aim of identifying future key research challenges faced by both current and next generation of hydrologists.

  5. The Impacts of Droughts in Tropical Forests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corlett, Richard T

    2016-07-01

    Tropical forests exchange more carbon dioxide (CO2) with the atmosphere than any other vegetation type and, thus, form a crucial component of the global carbon cycle. However, the impacts of anthropogenic climate change on drought occurrence and intensity could weaken the tropical forest carbon sink, with resulting feedback to future climates. We urgently need a better understanding of the mechanisms and processes involved to predict future responses of tropical forest carbon sequestration to climate change. Recent progress has been made in the study of drought responses at the molecular, cellular, organ, individual, species, community, and landscape levels. Although understanding of the mechanisms is incomplete, the models used to predict drought impacts could be significantly improved by incorporating existing knowledge. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Estimation of Phosphorus Emissions in the Upper Iguazu Basin (brazil) Using GIS and the More Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Acosta Porras, E. A.; Kishi, R. T.; Fuchs, S.; Hilgert, S.

    2016-06-01

    Pollution emissions into the drainage basin have direct impact on surface water quality. These emissions result from human activities that turn into pollution loads when they reach the water bodies, as point or diffuse sources. Their pollution potential depends on the characteristics and quantity of the transported materials. The estimation of pollution loads can assist decision-making in basin management. Knowledge about the potential pollution sources allows for a prioritization of pollution control policies to achieve the desired water quality. Consequently, it helps avoiding problems such as eutrophication of water bodies. The focus of the research described in this study is related to phosphorus emissions into river basins. The study area is the upper Iguazu basin that lies in the northeast region of the State of Paraná, Brazil, covering about 2,965 km2 and around 4 million inhabitants live concentrated on just 16% of its area. The MoRE (Modeling of Regionalized Emissions) model was used to estimate phosphorus emissions. MoRE is a model that uses empirical approaches to model processes in analytical units, capable of using spatially distributed parameters, covering both, emissions from point sources as well as non-point sources. In order to model the processes, the basin was divided into 152 analytical units with an average size of 20 km2. Available data was organized in a GIS environment. Using e.g. layers of precipitation, the Digital Terrain Model from a 1:10000 scale map as well as soils and land cover, which were derived from remote sensing imagery. Further data is used, such as point pollution discharges and statistical socio-economic data. The model shows that one of the main pollution sources in the upper Iguazu basin is the domestic sewage that enters the river as point source (effluents of treatment stations) and/or as diffuse pollution, caused by failures of sanitary sewer systems or clandestine sewer discharges, accounting for about 56% of the

  7. Drought Signaling in Plants

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Journals; Resonance – Journal of Science Education; Volume 4; Issue 6. Drought Signaling in Plants. G Sivakumar Swamy. General Article Volume 4 Issue 6 June 1999 pp 34-44. Fulltext. Click here to view fulltext PDF. Permanent link: http://www.ias.ac.in/article/fulltext/reso/004/06/0034-0044. Author Affiliations.

  8. Drought and groundwater management

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Amundsen, Eirik S; Jensen, Frank

    This paper considers the problem of a water management authority faced with the threat of a drought that hits at an uncertain date. Three management policies are investigated: i) a laissez-faire (open-access) policy of automatic adjustment through a zero marginal private net benefit condition, ii...

  9. Drought Signaling in Plants

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    economy. However, plants have evolved an inherent mechanism to overcome the effect of drought to a certain extent. This is accomplished by reducing the .... MINERAL. NUTRIENTS. Figure 2. Schematic representation of the entry of water into the plant roots from the soil, transportation through the conducting system of the ...

  10. Key Note: Living with droughts?

    OpenAIRE

    Erdbrink, C. D.; van Beek, Eelco; van Os, A.G.

    2008-01-01

    The Netherlands Center for River Research (NCR) in its first 10 years of existence has focused its activities on flooding. Climate change might cause that droughts will become as important as or even more important than floods. The dry year 2003 in Europe has shown the huge socio-economic impacts of droughts. New concepts are emerging on how to deal with droughts. This key-note addresses the issues of droughts and scarcity and makes a plea to include more drought research in NCR.

  11. Predictors of Drought Recovery across Forest Ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderegg, W.

    2016-12-01

    The impacts of climate extremes on terrestrial ecosystems are poorly understood but central for predicting carbon cycle feedbacks to climate change. Coupled climate-carbon cycle models typically assume that vegetation recovery from extreme drought is immediate and complete, which conflicts with basic plant physiological understanding. Here, we discuss what we have learned about forest ecosystem recovery from extreme drought across spatial and temporal scales, drawing on inference from tree rings, eddy covariance data, large scale gross primary productivity products, and ecosystem models. In tree rings, we find pervasive and substantial "legacy effects" of reduced growth and incomplete recovery for 1-4 years after severe drought, and that legacy effects are most prevalent in dry ecosystems, Pinaceae, and species with low hydraulic safety margins. At larger scales, we see relatively rapid recovery of ecosystem fluxes, with strong influences of ecosystem productivity and diversity and longer recovery periods in high latidue forests. In contrast, no or limited legacy effects are simulated in current climate-vegetation models after drought, and we highlight some of the key missing mechanisms in dynamic vegetation models. Our results reveal hysteresis in forest ecosystem carbon cycling and delayed recovery from climate extremes and help advance a predictive understanding of ecosystem recovery.

  12. Development of a Strategic Framework for Drought Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kang, Jaewon; Kim, Sooyoung; Suh, Aesook; Cho, Younghyun

    2017-04-01

    A drought starts with lack of precipitation; as the deficit of precipitation is prolonged, the loss of water influences on the amount of soil water because of evapotranspiration. In addition, the decreased runoff of surface and underground water also reduces discharge in rivers and storage in reservoirs; these reductions then lead to the decline in the supply capability of water resources supply facilities. Therefore, individuals may experience a given drought differently depending on their circumstances. In an area with a metropolitan water supply network that draws water from a multipurpose dam, residents might not realize that a meteorological drought is present since they are provided with sufficient water. Similar situation might occur in farmlands for which an irrigation system supplies water from an agricultural reservoir. In Korea, several institutions adopt each drought indices in their roles. Since March 2016, the Ministry of Public Safety and Security, via inter-ministerial cooperation, has been classifying and announcing drought situations in each administrative district of Korea into three types, meteorological, agricultural, or hydrological droughts, with three levels such as 'caution,' 'serious,' or 'very serious.' Deriving the drought index considering storage facilities and other factors and expressing them in three categories are valid as methods. However, the current method that represent the drought situation in an administrative district as a whole should be improved to recognize the drought situation more realistically and to make appropriate strategic responses. This study designs and implements a pilot model of a framework that re-establishes zones for drought situation representation, taking water usage and water supply infrastructure into account based on land use maps. In addition, each resulting district is provided with statistical indices that can assist in the application of appropriate drought indices and the understanding of

  13. A first look at global flash drought: long term change and short term predictability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuan, Xing; Wang, Linying; Ji, Peng

    2017-04-01

    "Flash drought" became popular after the unexpected 2012 central USA drought, mainly due to its rapid development, low predictability and devastating impacts on water resources and crop yields. A pilot study by Mo and Lettenmaier (2015) found that flash drought, based on a definition of concurrent heat extreme, soil moisture deficit and evapotranspiration (ET) enhancement at pentad scale, were in decline over USA during recent 100 years. Meanwhile, a recent work indicated that the occurrence of flash drought in China was doubled during the past 30 years, where a severe flash drought in the summer of 2013 ravaged 13 provinces in southern China. As global warming increases the frequency of heat waves and accelerates the hydrological cycle, the flash drought is expected to increase in general, but its trend might also be affected by interannual to decadal climate oscillations. To consolidate the hotspots of flash drought and the effects of climate change on flash drought, a global inventory is being conducted by using multi-source observations (in-situ, satellite and reanalysis), CMIP5 historical simulations and future projections under different forcing scenarios, as well as global land surface hydrological modeling for key variables including surface air temperature, soil moisture and ET. In particular, a global picture of the flash drought distribution, the contribution of naturalized and anthropogenic forcings to global flash drought change, and the risk of global flash drought in the future, will be presented. Besides investigating the long-term change of flash drought, providing reliable early warning is also essential to developing adaptation strategies. While regional drought early warning systems have been emerging in recent decade, forecasting of flash drought is still at an exploratory stage due to limited understanding of flash drought predictability. Here, a set of sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) hindcast datasets are being used to assess the short term

  14. Probabilistic forecasting of seasonal drought behaviors in the Huai River basin, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiao, Mingzhong; Zhang, Qiang; Singh, Vijay P.; Chen, Xiaohong

    2017-05-01

    The Huai River basin is one of the major supplier of agricultural products in China, and droughts have critical impacts on agricultural development. Good knowledge of drought behaviors is of great importance in the planning and management of agricultural activities in the Huai River basin. With the copula functions to model the persistence property of drought, the probabilistic seasonal drought forecasting models have been built in the Huai River basin. In this study, droughts were monitored by the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) with the time scales of 3, 6, and 9 months, and their composite occurrence probability has been used to forecast the seasonal drought. Results indicated that the uncertainty related to the predicted seasonal drought is larger when more severe droughts occurred in the previous seasons, and the severe drought which occurs in summer and autumn will be more likely to be persistent in the next season while the severe drought in winter and spring will be more likely to be recovered in the subsequent season. Furthermore, given the different drought statuses in the previous season, spatial patterns of the predicted drought events with the largest occurrence probability have also been investigated, and results indicate that the Huai River basin is vulnerable to the extreme drought in most parts of the basin, e.g., the severe drought in winter will be more likely to be persistent in spring in the central part of the southern Huai River basin. Such persistent drought events pose serious challenges for planning and management of agricultural irrigation, then results of the study will be valuable for the planning of crop cultivation or mitigation of the losses caused by drought in the Huai River basin, China.

  15. A new framework for evaluating the impacts of drought on net primary productivity of grassland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lei, Tianjie; Wu, Jianjun; Li, Xiaohan; Geng, Guangpo; Shao, Changliang; Zhou, Hongkui; Wang, Qianfeng; Liu, Leizhen

    2015-12-01

    This paper presented a valuable framework for evaluating the impacts of droughts (single factor) on grassland ecosystems. This framework was defined as the quantitative magnitude of drought impact that unacceptable short-term and long-term effects on ecosystems may experience relative to the reference standard. Long-term effects on ecosystems may occur relative to the reference standard. Net primary productivity (NPP) was selected as the response indicator of drought to assess the quantitative impact of drought on Inner Mongolia grassland based on the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and BIOME-BGC model. The framework consists of six main steps: 1) clearly defining drought scenarios, such as moderate, severe and extreme drought; 2) selecting an appropriate indicator of drought impact; 3) selecting an appropriate ecosystem model and verifying its capabilities, calibrating the bias and assessing the uncertainty; 4) assigning a level of unacceptable impact of drought on the indicator; 5) determining the response of the indicator to drought and normal weather state under global-change; and 6) investigating the unacceptable impact of drought at different spatial scales. We found NPP losses assessed using the new framework were more sensitive to drought and had higher precision than the long-term average method. Moreover, the total and average losses of NPP are different in different grassland types during the drought years from 1961-2009. NPP loss was significantly increased along a gradient of increasing drought levels. Meanwhile, NPP loss variation under the same drought level was different in different grassland types. The operational framework was particularly suited for integrative assessing the effects of different drought events and long-term droughts at multiple spatial scales, which provided essential insights for sciences and societies that must develop coping strategies for ecosystems for such events. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  16. Risk to Drought in Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Magana, V.

    2016-12-01

    Drought is one of the major meteorological hazards in Mexico given the semiarid and arid conditions in most of its territory. The recent drought event between 2011 and 2013 led to one of the major socioeconomic and environmental crisis in recent years in relation to water deficit mainly in northern Mexico. But the impacts of meteorological droughts are not only related to precipitation deficit, but to the water crisis context in which the climatic anomaly occurs. In other words, the drought hazard occurs in a vulnerability context that results in risks at levels that translate into hydrological, agricultural and socioeconomic droughts. The dynamics of prolonged droughts in Mexico has been studied in relation to low frequency oscillations in the Pacific and Atlantic oceans (Méndez and Magaña 2010). On the other hand, the vulnerability to drought has been characterized by means of socioeconomic and physical indicators that reflect the dynamical and multifactorial characteristics of this element (Neri and Magaña 2016). The combination of hazard and vulnerability led to an estimate of risk to drought that explains the drought impacts in recent years. The Mexican government has developed a national strategy to prevent or at least ameliorate the impacts of droughts by establishing the National Program against Drought (PRONACOSE) for each one of the thirteen hydrologic administrative regions that compose the Mexican territory. The main idea behind PRONACOSE is to respond to drought as it reaches a higher level of intensity. Some of the protocols in PRONACOSE are based on a risk analysis and proposals by water stakeholders. It is found that PRONACOSE could better work if a risk management preventive scheme is implemented making use of the knowledge on the predictability of drought in Mexico on various time scales. The examples of potential risk to drought management schemes in Mexico for some of the hydrologic administrative regions are presented.

  17. Simulating US Agriculture in a Modern Dust Bowl Drought

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glotter, Michael; Elliott, Joshua

    2016-01-01

    Drought-induced agricultural loss is one of the most costly impacts of extreme weather, and without mitigation, climate change is likely to increase the severity and frequency of future droughts. The Dust Bowl of the 1930s was the driest and hottest for agriculture in modern US history. Improvements in farming practices have increased productivity, but yields today are still tightly linked to climate variation and the impacts of a 1930s-type drought on current and future agricultural systems remain unclear. Simulations of biophysical process and empirical models suggest that Dust-Bowl-type droughts today would have unprecedented consequences, with yield losses approx.50% larger than the severe drought of 2012. Damages at these extremes are highly sensitive to temperature, worsening by approx.25% with each degree centigrade of warming. We find that high temperatures can be more damaging than rainfall deficit, and, without adaptation, warmer mid-century temperatures with even average precipitation could lead to maize losses equivalent to the Dust Bowl drought. Warmer temperatures alongside consecutive droughts could make up to 85% of rain-fed maize at risk of changes that may persist for decades. Understanding the interactions of weather extremes and a changing agricultural system is therefore critical to effectively respond to, and minimize, the impacts of the next extreme drought event.

  18. Future hydrological drought in the context of water scarcity

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Lanen, Henny A. J.; Wanders, Niko

    2013-04-01

    Observations show that droughts and water scarcity have increased over the last decades in Europe. In particular summer low flows show downward trends in vast areas (only in Scandinavia wetting trends occur). The lower water availability and the enhanced water demands led to growing water scarcity and increasing challenges for water management to assess future water resources and to develop a pro-active approach. A key element in the assessment is how drought will develop, i.e. will drought become more severe (frequency, intensity, spatial scale, location). Hydrological drought (groundwater and streamflow) development is the most relevant among drought types for water resources assessment. This study presents the likely change of hydrological droughts characteristics in the 21st century as a result of climate change across the world. Magnitude and directionality of these changes and their dependency on climatology and catchment characteristics, is largely unknown. A conceptual hydrological model was forced with downscaled and bias-corrected outcome from three General Circulation Models (GCM forced models), A2 emission scenario The same hydrological model was also forced with the WATCH Forcing re-analysis dataset (reference model). The variable threshold level method was applied to identify hydrological drought occurrence, duration and severity in time series of simulated discharge. Results for the control period (1971-2000) show that the drought characteristics of the GCM forced models reasonably agree with the reference model implying that the climate models produce realistic outcome for global drought analyses. For the near future (2021-2050) and far future (2071-2100) the GCM forced models project a global average decrease in drought occurrence (67-74% end of 21st century), indicating that the number of drought days per year will become lower. However, all three GCM forced models project a substantial increase of both average drought duration (43-57%) and

  19. The asymmetric impact of global warming on US drought types and distributions in a large ensemble of 97 hydro-climatic simulations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Shengzhi; Leng, Guoyong; Huang, Qiang; Xie, Yangyang; Liu, Saiyan; Meng, Erhao; Li, Pei

    2017-07-19

    Projection of future drought is often involved large uncertainties from climate models, emission scenarios as well as drought definitions. In this study, we investigate changes in future droughts in the conterminous United States based on 97 1/8 degree hydro-climate model projections. Instead of focusing on a specific drought type, we investigate changes in meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological drought as well as the concurrences. Agricultural and hydrological droughts are projected to become more frequent with increase in global mean temperature, while less meteorological drought is expected. Changes in drought intensity scale linearly with global temperature rises under RCP8.5 scenario, indicating the potential feasibility to derive future drought severity given certain global warming amount under this scenario. Changing pattern of concurrent droughts generally follows that of agricultural and hydrological droughts. Under the 1.5 °C warming target as advocated in recent Paris agreement, several hot spot regions experiencing highest droughts are identified. Extreme droughts show similar patterns but with much larger magnitude than the climatology. This study highlights the distinct response of droughts of various types to global warming and the asymmetric impact of global warming on drought distribution resulting in a much stronger influence on extreme drought than on mean drought.

  20. Mechanisms of plant survival and mortality during drought: why do some plants survive while others succumb to drought?

    Science.gov (United States)

    McDowell, Nate G.; Pockman, William T.; Allen, Craig D.; Breshears, David D.; Cobb, Neil; Kolb, Thomas; Plaut, Jennifer; Sperry, John; West, Adam; Williams, David G.; Yepez, Enrico A.

    2008-01-01

    Severe droughts have been associated with regional-scale forest mortality worldwide. Climate change is expected to exacerbate regional mortality events; however, prediction remains difficult because the physiological mechanisms underlying drought survival and mortality are poorly understood. We developed a hydraulically based theory considering carbon balance and insect resistance that allowed development and examination of hypotheses regarding survival and mortality. Multiple mechanisms may cause mortality during drought. A common mechanism for plants with isohydric regulation of water status results from avoidance of drought-induced hydraulic failure via stomatal closure, resulting in carbon starvation and a cascade of downstream effects such as reduced resistance to biotic agents. Mortality by hydraulic failure per se may occur for isohydric seedlings or trees near their maximum height. Although anisohydric plants are relatively drought-tolerant, they are predisposed to hydraulic failure because they operate with narrower hydraulic safety margins during drought. Elevated temperatures should exacerbate carbon starvation and hydraulic failure. Biotic agents may amplify and be amplified by drought-induced plant stress. Wet multidecadal climate oscillations may increase plant susceptibility to drought-induced mortality by stimulating shifts in hydraulic architecture, effectively predisposing plants to water stress. Climate warming and increased frequency of extreme events will probably cause increased regional mortality episodes. Isohydric and anisohydric water potential regulation may partition species between survival and mortality, and, as such, incorporating this hydraulic framework may be effective for modeling plant survival and mortality under future climate conditions.

  1. Combined use of relative drought indices to analyze climate change impact on meteorological and hydrological droughts in a Mediterranean basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marcos-Garcia, P.; Lopez-Nicolas, A.; Pulido-Velazquez, M.

    2017-11-01

    Standardized drought indices have been traditionally used to identify and assess droughts because of their simplicity and flexibility to compare the departure from normal conditions across regions at different timescales. Nevertheless, the statistical foundation of these indices assumes stationarity for certain aspects of the climatic variables, which could no longer be valid under climate change. This contribution provides a framework to analyze the impact of climate change on meteorological and hydrological droughts, considering shifts in precipitation and temperature, adapted to a Mediterranean basin. For this purpose, droughts are characterized through a combination of relative standardized indices: Standardized Precipitation Index (rSPI), Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (rSPEI) and a Standardized Flow Index (rSFI). The uncertainty and the stationarity of the distribution parameters used to compute the drought indices are assessed by bootstrapping resampling techniques and overlapping coefficients. For the application of the approach to a semiarid Mediterranean basin (Jucar River Basin), the Thornthwaite scheme was modified to improve the representation of the intra-annual variation of the potential evapotranspiration and low flow simulation in hydrological modelling was improved for a better characterization of hydrological droughts. Results for the Jucar basin show a general increase in the intensity and magnitude of both meteorological and hydrological droughts under climate change scenarios, due to the combined effects of rainfall reduction and evapotranspiration increase. Although the indicators show similar values for the historical period, under climate change scenarios the rSPI could underestimate the severity of meteorological droughts by ignoring the role of temperature.

  2. Modeling changes in organic carbon stocks for distinct soils in southeastern brazil after four eucalyptus rotations using the century model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Augusto Miguel Nascimento Lima

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Soil organic matter (SOM plays an important role in carbon (C cycle and soil quality. Considering the complexity of factors that control SOM cycling and the long time it usually takes to observe changes in SOM stocks, modeling constitutes a very important tool to understand SOM cycling in forest soils. The following hypotheses were tested: (i soil organic carbon (SOC stocks would be higher after several rotations of eucalyptus than in low-productivity pastures; (ii SOC values simulated by the Century model would describe the data better than the mean of observations. So, the aims of the current study were: (i to evaluate the SOM dynamics using the Century model to simulate the changes of C stocks for two eucalyptus chronosequences in the Rio Doce Valley, Minas Gerais State, Brazil; and (ii to compare the C stocks simulated by Century with the C stocks measured in soils of different Orders and regions of the Rio Doce Valley growing eucalyptus. In Belo Oriente (BO, short-rotation eucalyptus plantations had been cultivated for 4.0; 13.0, 22.0, 32.0 and 34.0 years, at a lower elevation and in a warmer climate, while in Virginópolis (VG, these time periods were 8.0, 19.0 and 33.0 years, at a higher elevation and in a milder climate. Soil samples were collected from the 0-20 cm layer to estimate C stocks. Results indicate that the C stocks simulated by the Century model decreased after 37 years of poorly managed pastures in areas previously covered by native forest in the regions of BO and VG. The substitution of poorly managed pastures by eucalyptus in the early 1970´s led to an average increase of C of 0.28 and 0.42 t ha-1 year-1 in BO and VG, respectively. The measured C stocks under eucalyptus in distinct soil Orders and independent regions with variable edapho-climate conditions were not far from the values estimated by the Century model (root mean square error - RMSE = 20.9; model efficiency - EF = 0.29 despite the opposite result obtained

  3. GEOWOW: a drought scenario for multidisciplinary data access and use

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santoro, Mattia; Sorichetta, Alessandro; Roglia, Elena; Craglia, Massimo; Nativi, Stefano

    2013-04-01

    Recent enhancements of the GEOSS Common Infrastructure (GCI; http://www.earthobservations.org/gci_gci.shtml), and in particular the introduction of a middleware in the GCI that brokers across heterogeneous information systems, have increased significantly the number of information resources discoverable worldwide. Now the challenge moves to the next level of ensuring access and use of the resources discovered, which have many different and domain-specific data models, communication protocols, encoding formats, etc. The GEOWOW Project - GEOSS interoperability for Weather, Ocean and Water, http://www.geowow.eu - developed a set of multidisciplinary use scenarios to advance the present GCI. This work describes the "Easy discovery and use of GEOSS resources for addressing multidisciplinary challenges related to drought scenarios" showcase demonstrated at the last GEO Plenary in Foz de Iguazu (Brazil). The scientific objectives of this showcase include: prevention and mitigation of water scarcity and drought situations, assessment of the population and geographical area potentially affected, evaluation of the possible distribution of mortality and economic loss risk, and support in building greater capacity to cope with drought. The need to address these challenges calls for producing scientifically robust and consistent information about the extent of land affected by drought and degradation. Similarly, in this context it is important: (i) to address uncertainties about the way in which various biological, physical, social, and economic factors interact each other and influence the occurrence of drought events, and (ii) to develop and test adequate indices and/or combination of them for monitoring and forecasting drought in different geographic locations and at various spatial scales (Brown et al., 2002). The scientific objectives above can be met with an increased interoperability across the multidisciplinary domains relevant to this drought scenario. In particular

  4. Ecological niche modelling and differentiation between Rhodnius neglectus Lent, 1954 and Rhodnius nasutus Stål, 1859 (Hemiptera: Reduviidae: Triatominae) in Brazil

    OpenAIRE

    Batista,Taíza Almeida; Gurgel-Gonçalves,Rodrigo

    2009-01-01

    Ecological niche modelling was used to predict the potential geographical distribution of Rhodnius nasutus Stål and Rhodnius neglectus Lent, in Brazil and to investigate the niche divergence between these morphologically similar triatomine species. The distribution of R. neglectus covered mainly the cerrado of Central Brazil, but the prediction maps also revealed its occurrence in transitional areas within the caatinga, Pantanal and Amazon biomes. The potential distribution of R. nasutus cove...

  5. Estimated health and economic impact of quadrivalent HPV (types 6/11/16/18) vaccination in Brazil using a transmission dynamic model

    OpenAIRE

    Kawai, Kosuke; de Araujo, Gabriela Tannus Branco; Fonseca, Marcelo; Pillsbury, Matthew; Singhal, Puneet K

    2012-01-01

    Abstract Background Cervical cancer is the second most common cancer among women in Brazil. We examined the health and economic impacts of quadrivalent HPV vaccination in Brazil. Methods We adapted a previously developed transmission dynamic model to estimate the effectiveness of HPV vaccination on cervical cancer, cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grades 2 and 3 (CIN2/3), CIN1, and genital warts. We evaluated following vaccination strategies: routine vaccination of 12-year-old girls and rou...

  6. Modeling monthly meteorological and agronomic frost days, based on minimum air temperature, in Center-Southern Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alvares, Clayton Alcarde; Sentelhas, Paulo César; Stape, José Luiz

    2017-09-01

    Although Brazil is predominantly a tropical country, frosts are observed with relative high frequency in the Center-Southern states of the country, affecting mainly agriculture, forestry, and human activities. Therefore, information about the frost climatology is of high importance for planning of these activities. Based on that, the aims of the present study were to develop monthly meteorological (F MET) and agronomic (F AGR) frost day models, based on minimum shelter air temperature (T MN), in order to characterize the temporal and spatial frost days variability in Center-Southern Brazil. Daily minimum air temperature data from 244 weather stations distributed across the study area were used, being 195 for developing the models and 49 for validating them. Multivariate regression models were obtained to estimate the monthly T MN, once the frost day models were based on this variable. All T MN regression models were statistically significant (p < 0.001), presenting adjusted R 2 between 0.69 and 0.90. Center-Southern Brazil is mainly hit by frosts from mid-fall (April) to mid-spring (October). The period from November to March is considered as frost-free, being very rare a frost day within that period. Monthly F MET and F AGR presented significant sigmoidal relationships with T MN (p < 0.0001), with adjusted R 2 above of 0.82. The residuals of the frost day models were random, which means that the sigmoidal models performed quite well for interpreting the frost day variability throughout the study area. The highlands of Santa Catarina, Rio Grande do Sul, São Paulo, and Minas Gerais had in average more than 25 and 13 frosts per year, respectively, for F MET and F AGR. The F MET and F AGR maps developed in this study for Center-Southern Brazil is a useful tool for farmers, foresters, and researchers, since they contribute to reduce frost spatial and temporal uncertainty, helping in planning project for strategic purposes. Furthermore, the monthly F MET and F AGR maps

  7. Analysis of a general circulation model product. I - Frontal systems in the Brazil/Malvinas and Kuroshio/Oyashio regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garzoli, Silvia L.; Garraffo, Zulema; Podesta, Guillermo; Brown, Otis

    1992-01-01

    The general circulation model (GCM) of Semtner and Chervin (1992) is tested by comparing the fields produced by this model with available observations in two western boundary current regions, the Brazil/Malvinas and the Kuroshio/Oyashio confluences. The two sets of data used are the sea surface temperature from satellite observations and the temperature field product from the GCM at levels 1 (12.5 m), 2 (37.5 m), and 6 (160 m). It is shown that the model reproduces intense thermal fronts at the sea surface and in the upper layers (where they are induced by the internal dynamics of the model). The location of the fronts are reproduced in the model within 4 to 5 deg, compared with observations. However, the variability of these fronts was found to be less pronounced in the model than in the observations.

  8. National-scale analysis of simulated hydrological droughts (1891-2015)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rudd, Alison C.; Bell, Victoria A.; Kay, Alison L.

    2017-07-01

    Droughts are phenomena that affect people and ecosystems in a variety of ways. One way to help with resilience to future droughts is to understand the characteristics of historic droughts and how these have changed over the recent past. Although, on average, Great Britain experiences a relatively wet climate it is also prone to periods of low rainfall which can lead to droughts. Until recently research into droughts of Great Britain has been neglected compared to other natural hazards such as storms and floods. This study is the first to use a national-scale gridded hydrological model to characterise droughts across Great Britain over the last century. Firstly, the model performance at low flows is assessed and it is found that the model can simulate low flows well in many catchments across Great Britain. Next, the threshold level method is applied to time series of monthly mean river flow and soil moisture to identify historic droughts (1891-2015). It is shown that the national-scale gridded output can be used to identify historic drought periods. A quantitative assessment of drought characteristics shows that groundwater-dependent areas typically experience more severe droughts, which have longer durations rather than higher intensities. There is substantial spatial and temporal variability in the drought characteristics, but there are no consistent changes through time.

  9. System robustness analysis for drought risk management in South Florida

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eilander, D.; Bouwer, L.; Barnes, J.; Mens, M.; Obeysekera, J.

    2015-12-01

    Drought is a frequently returning natural hazard in Florida, with at least one severe drought to be expected every decade. These droughts have had many impacts such as loss of agricultural products, inadequate public water supply and salt water intrusion into freshwater aquifers. Furthermore, climate change projections for South Florida suggest that dry spells are likely to be more frequent and prolonged, with negative impacts on water supply management for all users. In this study a System Robustness Analysis was conducted in order to analyse the effectiveness of strategies to limit the socio-economic impact of droughts under climate change. System Robustness Analysis (SRA) aims to support decision making by quantifying how well a system, with and without additional measures, can remain functioning under a range of external disturbances. Two system characteristics add up to system robustness: Resistance is the ability to withstand disturbances without responding (zero impact), and resilience is the ability to recover from the response to a disturbance. SRA can help to provide insight into the sensitivity of a system to changing magnitudes of extreme weather events. A regional-scale hydrologic and water management model is used to simulate the effect of changing precipitation and evaporation forcing on agricultural and urban water supply and demand in South Florida. The complex water management operational rules including water use restrictions are simulated in the model. Based on model runs with a various climate scenarios, drought events with a wide range of severity are identified and for each event the socio-economic impacts are determined. Here, a drought is defined as a reduced streamflow in the upstream Kissimmee basin, which contributes most to Lake Okeechobee, the major surface water storage in the system. The drought severity is characterized by the maximum drought deficit volume. Drought impacts are analyzed for several users in Miami Dade County. From

  10. Drought in the Rockies

    Science.gov (United States)

    2002-01-01

    This image shows the difference between the amount of vegetation in July 2000 and the average July vegetation for North America. Of particular interest are the dry conditions in the western United States. This spring and summer the Rocky Mountains have been relatively dry, and the brown regions stretching from the Canadian to the Mexican border, indicate the effect on the regions' forests. Western Montana and eastern Idaho are particularly parched, and appear darker brown. The dry conditions have contributed to this year's devastating fire season, during which millions of acres have burned in the west. Scientists find that during the growing season, land plants can be used to measure drought. Healthy, thriving plants reflect and absorb visible and near-infrared light differently than plants under stress. These variations in reflectance and absorption can be measured by satellites to produce maps of healthy and stressed vegetation. This image shows Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) anomaly, which indicates where vegetation growth was above average (green pixels), below average (brown pixels), or normal (white pixels). For more images and information about measuring vegetation and drought from space visit: Drought and Vegetation Monitoring. Image courtesy NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Biospheric Sciences Branch, based on data from NOAA.

  11. Development of a Combined Drought Indicator to detect agricultural drought in Europe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Sepulcre-Canto

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available This study proposes a drought indicator that combines the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI, the anomalies of soil moisture and the anomalies of the fraction of Absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation (fAPAR. Computed at the European level, the Combined Drought Indicator (CDI gives a synthetic and synoptic overview of the drought situation using a classification scheme. Derived from the integration of the three individual indices, this classification scheme is composed of three warning levels: "watch" when a relevant precipitation shortage is observed, "warning" when this precipitation shortage translates into a soil moisture anomaly, and "alert" when these two conditions are accompanied by an anomaly in the vegetation condition.

    The design of the CDI includes the study of the relationship between the three individual indices. To achieve this, the SPI-3 (3-month SPI was computed using the precipitation data obtained from a set of weather stations located in different agricultural areas of Europe, while the soil moisture and fAPAR data were extracted from the pixels of the respective grids surrounding these stations.

    The CDI is assessed for the main drought episodes of Europe between 2000 and 2011, using reported data from different sources, such as the EM-DAT Emergency Events Database and Eurostat annual yield estimates. The capability of the CDI to serve for drought early warning is evaluated as well as its robustness against false alarms. The indicator has been spatially implemented for the entire continent using different information layers of the European Drought Observatory. These layers correspond to SPI-3 grids derived from interpolated weather station precipitation data, anomalies of fAPAR from the MERIS Global Vegetation Index and anomalies of soil moisture obtained using the LISFLOOD distributed hydrological model. Maps of the CDI obtained for the European drought event in spring 2011 are shown and discussed

  12. Cost-utility of quadrivalent versus trivalent influenza vaccine in Brazil - comparison of outcomes from different static model types.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bellinghen, Laure-Anne Van; Marijam, Alen; Araujo, Gabriela Tannus; Gomez, Jorge; Vlaenderen, Ilse Van

    2018-01-17

    Influenza burden in Brazil is considerable with 4.2-6.4 million cases in 2008 and influenza-like-illness responsible for 16.9% of hospitalizations. Cost-effectiveness of influenza vaccination may be assessed by different types of models, with limitations due to data availability, assumptions, and modelling approach. To understand the impact of model complexity, the cost-utility of quadrivalent versus trivalent influenza vaccines (QIV versus TIV) in Brazil was estimated using three distinct models: a 1-year decision tree population model with three age groups (FLOU); a more detailed 1-year population model with five age groups (FLORA); and a more complex lifetime multi-cohort Markov model with nine age groups (FLORENCE). Analysis 1 (impact of model structure) compared each model using the same data inputs (i.e., best available data for FLOU). Analysis 2 (impact of increasing granularity) compared each model populated with the best available data for that model. Using the best data for each model, the discounted cost-utility ratio of QIV versus TIV was R$20,428 with FLOU, R$22,768 with FLORA (versus R$20,428 in Analysis 1), and, R$19,257 with FLORENCE (versus R$22,490 in Analysis 1) using a lifetime horizon. Conceptual differences between FLORA and FLORENCE meant the same assumption regarding increased all-cause mortality in at-risk individuals had an opposite effect on the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) in Analysis 2 versus 1, and a proportionally higher number of vaccinated elderly in FLORENCE reduced the ICER in Analysis 2. FLOU provided adequate cost-effectiveness estimates with data in broad age groups. FLORA increased insights (e.g., in healthy versus at-risk, paediatric, respiratory/non-respiratory complications). FLORENCE provided greater insights and precision (e.g., in elderly, costs and complications, lifetime cost-effectiveness). All three models predicted a cost per QALY gained for QIV versus TIV in the range of R$19,257 (FLORENCE) to R$22

  13. Impact of drought on wildfires in Iberia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Russo, Ana; Gouveia, Célia M.; DaCamara, Carlos; Sousa, Pedro; Trigo, Ricardo M.

    2015-04-01

    months in August. In the Eastern and Northwestern regions the correlation was most significant for the SPI for 3 and 6 months. Thus, the relation between wildfires and drought is better explained in the Northern and Southwestern regions by the temperature influence and on the Northwestern and Eastern by the precipitation influence. Gouveia C.M., Bastos A., Trigo R.M., DaCamara C.C. (2012) "Drought impacts on vegetation in the pre and post-fire events over Iberian Peninsula". Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 12, 3123-3137, 2012. Vicente-Serrano S.M., Santiago Beguería, Juan I. López-Moreno (2010) "A Multi-scalar drought index sensitive to global warming: The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index - SPEI". Journal of Climate 23: 1696-1718. Trigo R.M., Sousa P., Pereira M., Rasilla D., Gouveia C.M. (2013) "Modelling wildfire activity in Iberia with different Atmospheric Circulation Weather Types". International Journal of Climatology, DOI: 10.1002/joc.3749 Sousa PM, Trigo RM, Pereira MG, Bedia J, Gutiérrez JM, 2014. Different approaches to model future burnt area in the Iberian Peninsula. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 202, 11-25. doi:10.1016/j.agrformet.2014.11.018 Acknowledgements: This work was partially supported by national funds through FCT (Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia, Portugal) under project QSECA (PTDC/AAGGLO/4155/2012).

  14. Ocean-atmosphere coupling at the Brazil-Malvinas Confluence region based on in situ, satellite and numerical model data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Casagrande, F.; Souza, R.; Pezzi, L.

    2013-05-01

    In the Southwest Atlantic close to 40oS, the meeting of two ocean currents with distinct characteristics, the Brazil Current (BC), warm and saline, and the Malvinas Current (MC), cold and low salinity, resulting in strong activity marked by the formation of mesoscale eddies, this region is known as Brazil Malvinas Confluence (BMC). The INTERCONF project (Ocean Atmosphere Interaction over the region of CBM) perfoms since the 2002 data collection in situ radiosondes and XBTs onboard the Oceanographic Support Ship Ary Rongel during its trajectory of Brazil to the Antarctic continent. This paper analyzes the thermal contrast and ocean atmosphere coupling on the ocean front from the INTERCONF data, and compares the results to satellite data (QuikSCAT) and numerical models (Eta-CPTEC / INPE). The results indicate that the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) is driving the atmosphere, on the warm waters of the BC occurs an intensification of the winds and heat fluxes, and the reverse occurs on the cold waters of the MC. The data collected in 2009 include the presence of a warm core eddy (42 oS to 43.1 oS) which recorded higher values of heat fluxes and wind speed in relation to its surroundings. On the warm core eddy wind speed recorded was about 10 m.s-1, while on the BC and MC was approximately 7 m.s-1 and 2 m.s-1, respectively. Satellite data and numerical model tends to overestimate the wind speed data in the region in relation to data collected in situ. The heat flux data from the numerical model tend to increase over the warm waters and cold waters on the decline, though the amounts recorded by the model have low correlation.

  15. Spatialized Application of Remotely Sensed Data Assimilation Methods for Farmland Drought Monitoring Using Two Different Crop Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silvestro, Paolo Cosmo; Casa, Raffaele; Pignatti, Stefano; Castaldi, Fabio; Yang, Hao; Guijun, Yang

    2016-08-01

    The aim of this work was to develop a tool to evaluate the effect of water stress on yield losses at the farmland and regional scale, by assimilating remotely sensed biophysical variables into crop growth models. Biophysical variables were retrieved from HJ1A, HJ1B and Landsat 8 images, using an algorithm based on the training of artificial neural networks on PROSAIL.For the assimilation, two crop models of differing degree of complexity were used: Aquacrop and SAFY. For Aquacrop, an optimization procedure to reduce the difference between the remotely sensed and simulated CC was developed. For the modified version of SAFY, the assimilation procedure was based on the Ensemble Kalman Filter.These procedures were tested in a spatialized application, by using data collected in the rural area of Yangling (Shaanxi Province) between 2013 and 2015Results were validated by utilizing yield data both from ground measurements and statistical survey.

  16. Managing drought risk with a computer model of the Raritan River Basin water-supply system in central New Jersey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dunne, Paul; Tasker, Gary

    1996-01-01

    The reservoirs and pumping stations that comprise the Raritan River Basin water-supply system and its interconnections to the Delaware-Raritan Canal water-supply system, operated by the New Jersey Water Supply Authority (NJWSA), provide potable water to central New Jersey communities. The water reserve of this combined system can easily be depleted by an extended period of below-normal precipitation. Efficient operation of the combined system is vital to meeting the water-supply needs of central New Jersey. In an effort to improve the efficiency of the system operation, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the NJWSA, has developed a computer model that provides a technical basis for evaluating the effects of alternative patterns of operation of the Raritan River Basin water-supply system. This fact sheet describes the model, its technical basis, and its operation.

  17. Evaluation of drought impact on groundwater recharge rate using SWAT and Hydrus models on an agricultural island in western Japan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Jin

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Clarifying the variations of groundwater recharge response to a changing non-stationary hydrological process is important for efficiently managing groundwater resources, particularly in regions with limited precipitation that face the risk of water shortage. However, the rate of aquifer recharge is difficult to evaluate in terms of large annual-variations and frequency of flood events. In our research, we attempt to simulate related groundwater recharge processes under variable climate conditions using the SWAT Model, and validate the groundwater recharge using the Hydrus Model. The results show that annual average groundwater recharge comprised approximately 33% of total precipitation, however, larger variation was found for groundwater recharge and surface runoff compared to evapotranspiration, which fluctuated with annual precipitation variations. The annual variation of groundwater resources is shown to be related to precipitation. In spatial variations, the upstream is the main surface water discharge area; the middle and downstream areas are the main groundwater recharge areas. Validation by the Hydrus Model shows that the estimated and simulated groundwater levels are consistent in our research area. The groundwater level shows a quick response to the groundwater recharge rate. The rainfall intensity had a great impact on the changes of the groundwater level. Consequently, it was estimated that large spatial and temporal variation of the groundwater recharge rate would be affected by precipitation uncertainty in future.

  18. Searching for the optimal drought index and timescale combination to detect drought: a case study from the lower Jinsha River basin, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Fluixá-Sanmartín

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Drought indices based on precipitation are commonly used to identify and characterize droughts. Due to the general complexity of droughts, the comparison of index-identified events with droughts at different levels of the complete system, including soil humidity or river discharges, relies typically on model simulations of the latter, entailing potentially significant uncertainties. The present study explores the potential of using precipitation-based indices to reproduce observed droughts in the lower part of the Jinsha River basin (JRB, proposing an innovative approach for a catchment-wide drought detection and characterization. Two indicators, namely the Overall Drought Extension (ODE and the Overall Drought Indicator (ODI, have been defined. These indicators aim at identifying and characterizing drought events on the basin scale, using results from four meteorological drought indices (standardized precipitation index, SPI; rainfall anomaly index, RAI; percent of normal precipitation, PN; deciles, DEC calculated at different locations of the basin and for different timescales. Collected historical information on drought events is used to contrast results obtained with the indicators. This method has been successfully applied to the lower Jinsha River basin in China, a region prone to frequent and severe droughts. Historical drought events that occurred from 1960 to 2014 have been compiled and cataloged from different sources, in a challenging process. The analysis of the indicators shows a good agreement with the recorded historical drought events on the basin scale. It has been found that the timescale that best reproduces observed events across all the indices is the 6-month timescale.

  19. Household Choices of Child Labor and Schooling: A Simple Model with Application to Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soares, Rodrigo R.; Kruger, Diana; Berthelon, Matias

    2012-01-01

    This paper argues that conflicting results from previous literature--related to the effect of economic conditions on child labor--derive from different income and substitution effects implicit in different types of income variation. We use agricultural shocks to local economic activity in Brazil (coffee production) to distinguish between increases…

  20. Spatial evaluation and modeling of Dengue seroprevalence and vector density in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nildimar Alves Honório

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, experienced a severe dengue fever epidemic in 2008. This was the worst epidemic ever, characterized by a sharp increase in case-fatality rate, mainly among younger individuals. A combination of factors, such as climate, mosquito abundance, buildup of the susceptible population, or viral evolution, could explain the severity of this epidemic. The main objective of this study is to model the spatial patterns of dengue seroprevalence in three neighborhoods with different socioeconomic profiles in Rio de Janeiro. As blood sampling coincided with the peak of dengue transmission, we were also able to identify recent dengue infections and visually relate them to Aedes aegypti spatial distribution abundance. We analyzed individual and spatial factors associated with seroprevalence using Generalized Additive Model (GAM.Three neighborhoods were investigated: a central urban neighborhood, and two isolated areas characterized as a slum and a suburban area. Weekly mosquito collections started in September 2006 and continued until March 2008. In each study area, 40 adult traps and 40 egg traps were installed in a random sample of premises, and two infestation indexes calculated: mean adult density and mean egg density. Sera from individuals living in the three neighborhoods were collected before the 2008 epidemic (July through November 2007 and during the epidemic (February through April 2008. Sera were tested for DENV-reactive IgM, IgG, Nested RT-PCR, and Real Time RT-PCR. From the before-after epidemics paired data, we described seroprevalence, recent dengue infections (asymptomatic or not, and seroconversion. Recent dengue infection varied from 1.3% to 14.1% among study areas. The highest IgM seropositivity occurred in the slum, where mosquito abundance was the lowest, but household conditions were the best for promoting contact between hosts and vectors. By fitting spatial GAM we found dengue seroprevalence hotspots located at the

  1. Statistical distribution models for migratory fish in Jacuí basin, South Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thaís P. Alves

    Full Text Available The aim of the present study was to identify the distribution patterns of migratory fishes in the Jacuí river basin (Rio Grande do Sul, South Brazil, proposing a statistical model of presumed distribution based on geomorphologic environmental data. Through maps of occurrence probability, we hope to contribute to decisions regarding basin environmental management. The analyzed species were: Salminus brasiliensis (dourado, Leporinus obtusidens (piava, Prochilodus lineatus (grumatã and Pimelodus pintado (pintado. Samples were made through interviews with fishermen and local inhabitants, covering the main channel and tributaries of the rivers Jacuí, Taquari-Antas, Vacacaí, Vacacaí-Mirim, Pardo, Pardinho, Sinos, and Caí. The sampling program resulted in 204 interviews, being 187 considered as valid in 155 different sampling points. The probability of migratory fish occurrence was adjusted through the LOGIT routine of the Idrisi Andes Software: P = e(b0 + b1 . altitude + b2 . basin area . (1 + e(b0 + b1 . altitude + b2 . basin area-1, where P is the occurrence probability of the species (0-1 and b0, b1 and b2 are the equation parameters. Model accuracy, for estimating presence, ranged from 82% to 93%. Pimelodus pintado was cited to occur in 121 points among the 155 sampled (78.06%, Prochilodus lineatus in 72 (46.45%, L. obtusidens in 62 (40.00% and S. brasiliensis in 58 (37.42%. Equation parameters were estimated (± standard error as follow: S. brasiliensis: b0 = -2.8762 ± 0.2597; b1 = 1.3028 ± 0.0332; b2 = 1.1487 ± 0.0301; L. obtusidens: b0 = -0.8364 ± 0.2213; b1 = -1.5564 ± 0.0462; b2 = 0.9947 ± 0.0206; Prochilodus lineatus: b0= 0; b1= -1.3067 ± 0.0544; b2= 0.8128 ± 0.0177; Pimelodus pintado: b0= -0.9487 ± 0.3688; b1= -0.8269 ± 0.0496; b2= 0.9255 ± 0.0304.

  2. A Drought Cyberinfrastructure System for Improving Water Resource Management and Policy Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    AghaKouchak, Amir

    2015-04-01

    Development of reliable monitoring and prediction indices and tools are fundamental to drought preparedness, management, and response decision making. This presentation provides an overview of the Global Integrated Drought Monitoring and Prediction System (GIDMaPS) which offers near real-time drought information using both remote sensing observations and model simulations. Designed as a cyberinfrastructure system, GIDMaPS provides drought information based on a wide range of model simulations and satellite observations from different space agencies. Numerous indices have been developed for drought monitoring based on various indicator variables (e.g., precipitation, soil moisture, water storage). Defining droughts based on a single variable (e.g., precipitation, soil moisture or runoff) may not be sufficient for reliable risk assessment and decision making. GIDMaPS provides drought information based on multiple indices including Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Standardized Soil Moisture Index (SSI) and the Multivariate Standardized Drought Index (MSDI) which combines SPI and SSI probabilistically. In other words, MSDI incorporates the meteorological and agricultural drought conditions for overall characterization of droughts, and better management and distribution of water resources among and across different users. The seasonal prediction component of GIDMaPS is based on a persistence model which requires historical data and near-past observations. The seasonal drought prediction component is designed to provide drought information for water resource management, and short-term decision making. In this presentation, both monitoring and prediction components of GIDMaPS will be discussed, and the results from several major droughts including the 2013 Namibia, 2012-2013 United States, 2011-2012 Horn of Africa, and 2010 Amazon Droughts will be presented. The presentation will highlight how this drought cyberinfrastructure system can be used to improve water

  3. Modeling the land requirements and potential productivity of sugarcane and jatropha in Brazil and India using the LPJmL dynamic global vegetation model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lapola, David M. [Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, D-34109 Kassel (Germany); International Max Planck Research School on Earth System Modeling, D-20146 Hamburg (Germany); Priess, Joerg A. [Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, D-34109 Kassel (Germany); Bondeau, Alberte [Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, D-14412 Potsdam (Germany)

    2009-08-15

    The governments of Brazil and India are planning a large expansion of bioethanol and biodiesel production in the next decade. Considering that limitation of suitable land and/or competition with other land uses might occur in both countries, assessments of potential crop productivity can contribute to an improved planning of land requirements for biofuels under high productivity or marginal conditions. In this paper we model the potential productivity of sugarcane and jatropha in both countries. Land requirements for such expansions are calculated according to policy scenarios based on government targets for biofuel production in 2015. Spatial variations in the potential productivity lead to rather different land requirements, depending on where plantations are located. If jatropha is not irrigated, land requirements to fulfill the Indian government plans in 2015 would be of 410 000 to 95 000 km{sup 2} if grown in low or high productivity areas respectively (mean of 212 000 km{sup 2}). In Brazil land requirements, are of 18 000-89 000 km{sup 2} (mean of 29 000 km{sup 2}), suggesting a promising substitute to soybean biodiesel. Although future demand for sugarcane ethanol in Brazil is approximately ten times larger than in India, land requirements are comparable in both countries due to large differences in ethanol production systems. In Brazil this requirement ranges from 25 000 to 211 000 km{sup 2} (mean of 33 000 km{sup 2}) and in India from 7000 to 161 000 km{sup 2} (mean 17 000 km{sup 2}). Irrigation could reduce the land requirements by 63% and 41% (24% and 15%) in India (Brazil) for jatropha and sugarcane respectively. (author)

  4. Droughts and governance impacts on water scarcity: an~analysis in the Brazilian semi-arid

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. C. S. Silva

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Extreme events are part of climate variability. Dealing with variability is still a challenge that might be increased due to climate change. However, impacts of extreme events are not only dependent on their variability, but also on management and governance. In Brazil, its semi-arid region is vulnerable to extreme events, especially droughts, for centuries. Actually, other Brazilian regions that have been mostly concerned with floods are currently also experiencing droughts. This article evaluates how a combination between climate variability and water governance might affect water scarcity and increase the impacts of extreme events on some regions. For this evaluation, Ostrom's framework for analyzing social-ecological systems (SES was applied. Ostrom's framework is useful for understanding interactions between resource systems, governance systems and resource users. This study focuses on social-ecological systems located in a drought-prone region of Brazil. Two extreme events were selected, one in 1997–2000, when Brazil's new water policy was very young, and the other one in 2012–2015. The analysis of SES considering Ostrom's principle "Clearly defined boundaries" showed that deficiencies in water management cause the intensification of drought's impacts for the water users. The reasons are more related to water management and governance problems than to drought event magnitude or climate change. This is a problem that holdup advances in dealing with extreme events.

  5. Drought impacts on ecosystem functions of the U.S. National Forests and Grasslands: Part I evaluation of a water and carbon balance model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shanlei Sun; Ge Sun; Peter Caldwell; Steven G. McNulty; Erika Cohen; Jingfeng Xiao; Yang Zhang

    2015-01-01

    Understanding and quantitatively evaluating the regional impacts of climate change and variability (e.g., droughts) on forest ecosystem functions (i.e., water yield, evapotranspiration, and productivity) and services (e.g., fresh water supply and carbon sequestration) is of great importance for developing climate change adaptation strategies for National Forests and...

  6. Drought Forecasting Based on Machine Learning of Remote Sensing and Long-Range Forecast Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rhee, J.; Im, J.; Park, S.

    2016-06-01

    The reduction of drought impacts may be achieved through sustainable drought management and proactive measures against drought disaster. Accurate and timely provision of drought information is essential. In this study, drought forecasting models to provide high-resolution drought information based on drought indicators for ungauged areas were developed. The developed models predict drought indices of the 6-month Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI6) and the 6-month Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI6). An interpolation method based on multiquadric spline interpolation method as well as three machine learning models were tested. Three machine learning models of Decision Tree, Random Forest, and Extremely Randomized Trees were tested to enhance the provision of drought initial conditions based on remote sensing data, since initial conditions is one of the most important factors for drought forecasting. Machine learning-based methods performed better than interpolation methods for both classification and regression, and the methods using climatology data outperformed the methods using long-range forecast. The model based on climatological data and the machine learning method outperformed overall.

  7. DROUGHT FORECASTING BASED ON MACHINE LEARNING OF REMOTE SENSING AND LONG-RANGE FORECAST DATA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Rhee

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The reduction of drought impacts may be achieved through sustainable drought management and proactive measures against drought disaster. Accurate and timely provision of drought information is essential. In this study, drought forecasting models to provide high-resolution drought information based on drought indicators for ungauged areas were developed. The developed models predict drought indices of the 6-month Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI6 and the 6-month Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI6. An interpolation method based on multiquadric spline interpolation method as well as three machine learning models were tested. Three machine learning models of Decision Tree, Random Forest, and Extremely Randomized Trees were tested to enhance the provision of drought initial conditions based on remote sensing data, since initial conditions is one of the most important factors for drought forecasting. Machine learning-based methods performed better than interpolation methods for both classification and regression, and the methods using climatology data outperformed the methods using long-range forecast. The model based on climatological data and the machine learning method outperformed overall.

  8. Simultaneous Control of Phenanthrene and Drought by Dual Exposure System

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schmidt, Stine N.; Holmstrup, Martin; Damgaard, Christian

    2014-01-01

    and independent control of chemical and drought exposure in bioassays with terrestrial organisms: Passive dosing from silicone controlled the chemical activity of phenanthrene (chemical stress), while saline solutions controlled the water activity (drought stress) in the closed exposure system. The dual exposure...... system was then applied in a full factorial experiment with seven exposure levels (72), which aimed at determining the combined effects of phenanthrene and drought on the survival of the terrestrial springtail Folsomia candida after 7 d exposure. Fitting an "independent action" model to the complete data...

  9. Synthetic drought event sets: thousands of meteorological drought events for risk-based management under present and future conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guillod, Benoit P.; Massey, Neil; Otto, Friederike E. L.; Allen, Myles R.; Jones, Richard; Hall, Jim W.

    2016-04-01

    Droughts and related water scarcity can have large impacts on societies and consist of interactions between a number of natural and human factors. Meteorological conditions are usually the first natural trigger of droughts, and climate change is expected to impact these and thereby the frequency and intensity of the events. However, extreme events such as droughts are, by definition, rare, and accurately quantifying the risk related to such events is therefore difficult. The MaRIUS project (Managing the Risks, Impacts and Uncertainties of drought and water Scarcity) aims at quantifying the risks associated with droughts in the UK under present and future conditions. To do so, a large number of drought events, from climate model simulations downscaled at 25km over Europe, are being fed into hydrological models of various complexity and used for the estimation of drought risk associated with human and natural systems, including impacts on the economy, industry, agriculture, terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, and socio-cultural aspects. Here, we present the hydro-meteorological drought event set that has been produced by weather@home [1] for MaRIUS. Using idle processor time on volunteers' computers around the world, we have run a very large number (10'000s) of Global Climate Model (GCM) simulations, downscaled at 25km over Europe by a nested Regional Climate Model (RCM). Simulations include the past 100 years as well as two future horizons (2030s and 2080s), and provide a large number of sequences of spatio-temporally consistent weather, which are consistent with the boundary forcing such as the ocean, greenhouse gases and solar forcing. The drought event set for use in impact studies is constructed by extracting sequences of dry conditions from these model runs, leading to several thousand drought events. In addition to describing methodological and validation aspects of the synthetic drought event sets, we provide insights into drought risk in the UK, its

  10. Multilevel and multiscale drought reanalysis over France with the Safran-Isba-Modcou hydrometeorological suite

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J.-P. Vidal

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Physically-based droughts can be defined as a water deficit in at least one component of the land surface hydrological cycle. The reliance of different activity domains (water supply, irrigation, hydropower, etc. on specific components of this cycle requires drought monitoring to be based on indices related to meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological droughts. This paper describes a high-resolution retrospective analysis of such droughts in France over the last fifty years, based on the Safran-Isba-Modcou (SIM hydrometeorological suite. The high-resolution 1958–2008 Safran atmospheric reanalysis was used to force the Isba land surface scheme and the hydrogeological model Modcou. Meteorological droughts are characterized with the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI at time scales varying from 1 to 24 months. Similar standardizing methods were applied to soil moisture and streamflow for identifying multiscale agricultural droughts – through the Standardized Soil Wetness Index (SSWI – and multiscale hydrological droughts, through the Standardized Flow Index (SFI. Based on a common threshold level for all indices, drought event statistics over the 50-yr period – number of events, duration, severity and magnitude – have been derived locally in order to highlight regional differences at multiple time scales and at multiple levels of the hydrological cycle (precipitation, soil moisture, streamflow. Results show a substantial variety of temporal drought patterns over the country that are highly dependent on both the variable and time scale considered. Independent spatio-temporal drought events have then been identified and described by combining local characteristics with the evolution of area under drought. Summary statistics have finally been used to compare past severe drought events, from multi-year precipitation deficits (1989–1990 to short hot and dry periods (2003. Results show that the ranking of drought events depends highly

  11. Quantifying the Role of Groundwater for Drought Mitigation in Washington State

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richey, A.; Barik, M. G.

    2016-12-01

    The 2015 drought in Washington State had a severe impact on the more than 300 crops grown in the state, including an initial estimated loss of $86.52 million on the iconic Washington apple industry alone [Washington State Department of Agriculture, Interim Report: 2015 Drought and Agriculture, 2015]. The full agricultural impact of the 2015 Washington drought has yet to be assessed. Groundwater plays an important role in drought mitigation in Washington's agricultural industry, just as it does in California's Central Valley. However, a key difference is Washington's requirement for permit applications to use emergency drought wells; a process that occurs only after an official drought declaration. The 2001, 2005, and 2015 droughts saw significant differences in the number of emergency drought permit applications that were reported back to the state, though the severity of drought in each year did not differ to the same extreme. Understanding the drivers to using groundwater during drought will help to better manage future groundwater use in the face of more frequent and severe droughts. The goal of this study is to identify the drivers and impacts to using groundwater for drought mitigation in Washington State, by both characterizing the differences in the 2001, 2005, and 2015 droughts and estimating groundwater use in the Columbia River Basin in Washington. Preliminary results show a mismatch between groundwater use estimated from permit applications compared to modeled groundwater demand for irrigation from the coupled hydrologic and cropping systems model, VIC-CropSyst. We explore drivers of this discrepancy and its relation to drought with observation wells, reported emergency well permits, models, and remote sensing. Ultimately, this work lays the foundation to assess the economic value of groundwater to mitigate crop losses in agricultural regions, especially into the future with changing regulatory structures and climate change.

  12. Uncertainties in Historical Changes and Future Projections of Drought

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Tianbao; Dai, Aiguo

    2017-04-01

    Precipitation, streamflow and drought indices suggest drying since 1950 over many land areas, and models project more frequent and intense drought in the 21st century. Here, we examine the uncertainties in estimating historical drought changes, and further compare the model-simulated drought changes with observation-based estimates since 1900 and their future projections using the self-calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index with the Penman-Monteith potential evapotranspiration (PET) (sc_PDSI_pm) based on the simulations from both the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) and Phase 5 (CMIP5). Consistent with our previous analyses, precipitation and streamflow data and the calculated sc_PDSI_pm all show consistent drying during 1950-2012 over most Africa, East and South Asia, southern Europe, eastern Australia, and many parts of the Americas. Furthermore, long-term changes in global and hemispheric drought areas from 1900-2014 are consistent with the CMIP3 and CMIP5 model-simulated response to historical greenhouse gas and other external forcing, with the short-term variations within the model spread of internal variability, despite that historical changes over many regions are still dominated by internal variations. Based on the sc_PDSI_pm, both the CMIP3 and CMIP5 models project continued increases (by 50-200% in a relative sense) in the 21st century in global drought frequency and area even under low-moderate emissions scenarios, resulting from a decrease in the mean and flattening of the probability distribution functions (PDFs) of the sc_PDSI_pm. This flattening is especially pronounced over the Northern Hemisphere land, leading to increased drought frequency even over areas with increasing sc_PDSI_pm. While warming-induced ubiquitous PET increases and precipitation decreases over subtropical land are responsible for the sc_PDSI_pm decrease, the exact cause of its PDF flattening needs further investigation.

  13. Vegetation Drought Response Index: 2010-Present

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — VegDRI, short for Vegetation Drought Response Index, is a drought-monitoring tool developed by scientists at EROS in collaboration with the National Drought...

  14. Disasters related to droughts and public health - a review of the scientific literature.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alpino, Tais Ariza; de Sena, Aderita Ricarda Martins; de Freitas, Carlos Machado

    2016-03-01

    In Brazil, the history of droughts has been marked by constant social and health tragedies, with estimates of up to 3 million deaths from the early 19th century until the late 20th century. There is a record of nearly 32,000 events related to the above and more than 96 million people were affected between 1991 and 2010. Although droughts have historically brought disasters to Brazil, which was noted in the scientific expeditions of Arthur Neiva and Belisario Penna that documented these droughts, there have not been many studies on them. The objective of this paper is to present a revision of the scientific articles related to droughts and public health. The following databases were used: PubMed, the Preparation and Response to Disasters Portal from BVS and the Capes Periodical Portal. The descriptors drought and health were used to search titles and summaries of articles in English, Portuguese and Spanish. Among the repercussions related to health that were discovered: malnutrition and nutritional deficiencies, mental health problems, issues relating to water and air quality and commitments made concerning access to health services. As there is a trend for more intense droughts and a scarcity of water until 2030, there is an urgent need for more research and studies in these areas.

  15. Leaf area index drives soil water availability and extreme drought-related mortality under elevated CO2 in a temperate grassland model system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manea, Anthony; Leishman, Michelle R

    2014-01-01

    The magnitude and frequency of climatic extremes, such as drought, are predicted to increase under future climate change conditions. However, little is known about how other factors such as CO2 concentration will modify plant community responses to these extreme climatic events, even though such modifications are highly likely. We asked whether the response of grasslands to repeat extreme drought events is modified by elevated CO2, and if so, what are the underlying mechanisms? We grew grassland mesocosms consisting of 10 co-occurring grass species common to the Cumberland Plain Woodland of western Sydney under ambient and elevated CO2 and subjected them to repeated extreme drought treatments. The 10 species included a mix of C3, C4, native and exotic species. We hypothesized that a reduction in the stomatal conductance of the grasses under elevated CO2 would be offset by increases in the leaf area index thus the retention of soil water and the consequent vulnerability of the grasses to extreme drought would not differ between the CO2 treatments. Our results did not support this hypothesis: soil water content was significantly lower in the mesocosms grown under elevated CO2 and extreme drought-related mortality of the grasses was greater. The C4 and native grasses had significantly higher leaf area index under elevated CO2 levels. This offset the reduction in the stomatal conductance of the exotic grasses as well as increased rainfall interception, resulting in reduced soil water content in the elevated CO2 mesocosms. Our results suggest that projected increases in net primary productivity globally of grasslands in a high CO2 world may be limited by reduced soil water availability in the future.

  16. Leaf area index drives soil water availability and extreme drought-related mortality under elevated CO2 in a temperate grassland model system.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anthony Manea

    Full Text Available The magnitude and frequency of climatic extremes, such as drought, are predicted to increase under future climate change conditions. However, little is known about how other factors such as CO2 concentration will modify plant community responses to these extreme climatic events, even though such modifications are highly likely. We asked whether the response of grasslands to repeat extreme drought events is modified by elevated CO2, and if so, what are the underlying mechanisms? We grew grassland mesocosms consisting of 10 co-occurring grass species common to the Cumberland Plain Woodland of western Sydney under ambient and elevated CO2 and subjected them to repeated extreme drought treatments. The 10 species included a mix of C3, C4, native and exotic species. We hypothesized that a reduction in the stomatal conductance of the grasses under elevated CO2 would be offset by increases in the leaf area index thus the retention of soil water and the consequent vulnerability of the grasses to extreme drought would not differ between the CO2 treatments. Our results did not support this hypothesis: soil water content was significantly lower in the mesocosms grown under elevated CO2 and extreme drought-related mortality of the grasses was greater. The C4 and native grasses had significantly higher leaf area index under elevated CO2 levels. This offset the reduction in the stomatal conductance of the exotic grasses as well as increased rainfall interception, resulting in reduced soil water content in the elevated CO2 mesocosms. Our results suggest that projected increases in net primary productivity globally of grasslands in a high CO2 world may be limited by reduced soil water availability in the future.

  17. A modeling of the carbon-nitrogen cycle transport at Igap\\'o I Lake - Londrina, Paran\\'a, Brazil

    CERN Document Server

    Pardo, Suellen Ribeiro; Romeiro, Neyva Maria Lopes; Cirilo, Eliandro Rodrigues

    2010-01-01

    This work is a contribution to better understand the effect that domestic sewage discharges may cause in a water body, specifically Igap\\'o I Lake, in Londrina, Paran\\'a, Brazil. The simulation of the dynamics of pollutant concentrations all over the water body is conducted by means of structured discretization of the geometry of Igap\\'o I Lake, together with the finite differences and the finite elements methods. Firstly, the hydrodynamic flow (without the pollutants), modeled by Navier-Stokes and pressure equations, is numerically resolved by the finite differences method, and associated with the fourth order Runge-Kutta procedure. After that, by using the hydrodynamic field velocity, the flow of the reactive species (pollutants) is described through a transport model, which considers advective and diffusive processes, as well as through a reactions model, restricted to the carbon-nitrogen cycle. The transport and reactions model is numerically resolved by the stabilized finite elements method, by means of ...

  18. Natural enemies govern ecosystem resilience in the face of extreme droughts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Qiang; Silliman, Brian R; Liu, Zezheng; Cui, Baoshan

    2017-02-01

    Severe droughts are on the rise in many regions. But thus far, attempts to predict when drought will cause a major regime shift or when ecosystems are resilient, often using plant drought tolerance models, have been frustrated. Here, we show that pressure from natural enemies regulates an ecosystem's resilience to severe droughts. Field experiments revealed that in protected salt marshes experiencing a severe drought, plant-eating grazers eliminated drought-stressed vegetation that could otherwise survive and recover from the climate extreme, transforming once lush marshes into persistent salt barrens. These results provide an explicit experimental demonstration for the obligatory role of natural enemies across the initiation, expansion and recovery stages of a natural ecosystem's collapse. Our study highlights that natural enemies can hasten an ecosystem's resilience to drought to much lower levels than currently predicted, calling for integration into climate change predictions and conservation strategies. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

  19. Probabilistic analysis of hydrological drought characteristics using meteorological drought

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wong, G.; Lanen, van H.A.J.; Torfs, P.J.J.F.

    2013-01-01

    Droughts are an inevitable consequence of climate variability and are pervasive across many regions. Their effects can vary on an extensive scale, depending on the type of drought and people’s vulnerability. Crucial characteristics of both hydrological (groundwater, streamflow) and meteorological

  20. Drought in groundwater-drought distribution and performance indicators

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Peters, E.; Lanen, van H.A.J.; Torfs, P.J.J.F.; Bier, G.

    2005-01-01

    In order to investigate how droughts are changed by the groundwater system and to analyse the performance of groundwater during drought, 10 time series of 1000 years of recharge and groundwater discharge were generated. The 10×1000 years of synthetic daily data were generated using Nearest Neighbour

  1. Grassland Phenology Response to Drought in the Canadian Prairies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tengfei Cui

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Drought is a significant climatic disturbance in grasslands, yet the impact drought caused by global warming has on grassland phenology is still unclear. Our research investigates the long-term variability of grassland phenology in relation to drought in the Canadian prairies from 1982 to 2014. Based on the start of growing season (SOG and the end of growing season (EOG derived from Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS NDVI3g datasets, we found that grasslands demonstrated complex phenology trends over our study period. We retrieved the drought conditions of the prairie ecozone at multiple time scales from the 1- to 12-month Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI. We evaluated the correlations between the detrended time series of phenological metrics and SPEIs through Pearson correlation analysis and identified the dominant drought where the maximum correlations were found for each ecozone and each phenological metric. The dominant drought over preceding months account for 14–33% and 26–44% of the year-to-year variability of SOG and EOG, respectively, and fewer water deficits would favor an earlier SOG and delayed EOG. The drought-induced shifts in SOG and EOG were determined based on the correlation between the dominant drought and the year-to-year variability using ordinary least square (OLS method. Our research also quantifies the correlation between precipitation and the evolution of the dominant droughts and the drought-induced shifts in grassland phenology. Every millimeter (mm increase in precipitation accumulated over the dominant periods would cause SOG to occur 0.06–0.21 days earlier, and EOG to occur 0.23–0.45 days later. Our research reveals a complex phenology response in relation to drought in the Canadian prairie grasslands and demonstrates that drought is a significant factor in the timing of both SOG and EOG. Thus, it is necessary to include drought-related climatic variables when

  2. Modelling of upwelling in the coastal area of Cabo Frio (Rio de Janeiro - Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos Carbonel

    1998-01-01

    Full Text Available A 1 1/2 reduced-gravity model is proposed to study the hydrodynamic and thermodynamic features of the coastal upwelling area of Cabo Frio (Rio de Janeiro-Brazil. The vertical structure of the model is described by an active layer overlaying a deep inert layer where the pressure gradient is set to zero. For the upper layer, the model includes the turbulent version of the momentum. continuity and heat equations. The conservation of heat is represented by a transport equation to describe the thermodynamic changes of the sea surface temperature (SST. The solution domain includes open boundaries in which weakly-retlective conditions are prescribed. Solutions are found numerically on a uniform grid and the fundamental equations are approximated by the finite difference method. Numerical experiments are performed to evaluate the dynamic response of the coastal area of Cabo Frio forced by uniform and non-uniform wind fields. The solutions differ considerably depending on the orientation of the winds. East and northeast winds correlate with colder waters in the zonal coastline of this area and the presence of tlows toward Cabo Frio correlates with north wind components. The proposed model is validated with the numerical simulation of an observed event of upwelling, where a time­-dependent and non-uniform wind ficld develops a SST pattern similar as the observations, particularly the extension of the cool water plume in south-west direction and the rapid time variation of the SST.Um modelo de gravidade reduzida de 1 1/2 camada é proposto para estudar as características hidrodinmicas e termodinmicas da área costeira de Cabo Frio (Rio de Janeiro ­Brasil. A estrutura vertical do modelo é descrita por uma camada ativa sobre uma camada profunda sem movimento onde o gradicnte de pressão é zero. Para a camada superior. o modelo incluí a versão turbulenta das equações de momentum, continuidade e calor. A conservação do calor é representada por uma

  3. A probabilistic drought forecasting framework: A combined dynamical and statistical approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yan, Hongxiang; Moradkhani, Hamid; Zarekarizi, Mahkemeh

    2017-05-01

    In order to improve drought forecasting skill, this study develops a probabilistic drought forecasting framework comprised of dynamical and statistical modeling components. The novelty of this study is to seek the use of data assimilation to quantify initial condition uncertainty with the Monte Carlo ensemble members, rather than relying entirely on the hydrologic model or land surface model to generate a single deterministic initial condition, as currently implemented in the operational drought forecasting systems. Next, the initial condition uncertainty is quantified through data assimilation and coupled with a newly developed probabilistic drought forecasting model using a copula function. The initial condition at each forecast start date are sampled from the data assimilation ensembles for forecast initialization. Finally, seasonal drought forecasting products are generated with the updated initial conditions. This study introduces the theory behind the proposed drought forecasting system, with an application in Columbia River Basin, Pacific Northwest, United States. Results from both synthetic and real case studies suggest that the proposed drought forecasting system significantly improves the seasonal drought forecasting skills and can facilitate the state drought preparation and declaration, at least three months before the official state drought declaration.

  4. Diurnal oscillations of soybean circadian clock and drought responsive genes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juliana Marcolino-Gomes

    Full Text Available Rhythms produced by the endogenous circadian clock play a critical role in allowing plants to respond and adapt to the environment. While there is a well-established regulatory link between the circadian clock and responses to abiotic stress in model plants, little is known of the circadian system in crop species like soybean. This study examines how drought impacts diurnal oscillation of both drought responsive and circadian clock genes in soybean. Drought stress induced marked changes in gene expression of several circadian clock-like components, such as LCL1-, GmELF4- and PRR-like genes, which had reduced expression in stressed plants. The same conditions produced a phase advance of expression for the GmTOC1-like, GmLUX-like and GmPRR7-like genes. Similarly, the rhythmic expression pattern of the soybean drought-responsive genes DREB-, bZIP-, GOLS-, RAB18- and Remorin-like changed significantly after plant exposure to drought. In silico analysis of promoter regions of these genes revealed the presence of cis-elements associated both with stress and circadian clock regulation. Furthermore, some soybean genes with upstream ABRE elements were responsive to abscisic acid treatment. Our results indicate that some connection between the drought response and the circadian clock may exist in soybean since (i drought stress affects gene expression of circadian clock components and (ii several stress responsive genes display diurnal oscillation in soybeans.

  5. Assessing water resource system vulnerability to unprecedented hydrological drought using copulas to characterize drought duration and deficit

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pflug, Georg; Hall, Jim W.; Hochrainer‐Stigler, Stefan

    2015-01-01

    Abstract Global climate models suggest an increase in evapotranspiration, changing storm tracks, and moisture delivery in many parts of the world, which are likely to cause more prolonged and severe drought, yet the weakness of climate models in modeling persistence of hydroclimatic variables and the uncertainties associated with regional climate projections mean that impact assessments based on climate model output may underestimate the risk of multiyear droughts. In this paper, we propose a vulnerability‐based approach to test water resource system response to drought. We generate a large number of synthetic streamflow series with different drought durations and deficits and use them as input to a water resource system model. Marginal distributions of the streamflow for each month are generated by bootstrapping the historical data, while the joint probability distributions of consecutive months are constructed using a copula‐based method. Droughts with longer durations and larger deficits than the observed record are generated by perturbing the copula parameter and by adopting an importance sampling strategy for low flows. In this way, potential climate‐induced changes in monthly hydrological persistence are factored into the vulnerability analysis. The method is applied to the London water system (England) to investigate under which drought conditions severe water use restrictions would need to be imposed. Results indicate that the water system is vulnerable to drought conditions outside the range of historical events. The vulnerability assessment results were coupled with climate model information to compare alternative water management options with respect to their vulnerability to increasingly long and severe drought. PMID:27609995

  6. Zambia: drought in Monze.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foster, S

    1992-08-22

    In Monze District, Zambia, the population must face the drought of 1991-92, corridor disease (tick-borne East Coast fever), and AIDS. The Ministry of Agriculture in Lusaka acted quick in securing available world stocks in maize which are being targeted to households most at risk of starvation. Food and other interventions are also being targeted to AIDS families to help avoid family breakup and economic ruin. The tradition is that a dead man's relatives may seize belongings, even cooking pots, which may mean the widow and children are left with no means of support. This situation occurs in Monze District despite legislation prohibiting the claiming of possessions. Women are in a difficult position as both planters and weeders of maize and as caretakers of the ill AIDS patients. Men caring for the sick or taking over women's work is necessary in order to prevent a labor shortage for the production of maize. Stocks of mealie meal are needed for families until the next harvest. Seed will be needed in October for planting. With adequate rain, agriculture could return to normal in 1-2 years, unless the impact of AIDS is significant. It is worrisome because 33% of families are expected to have had 1 family member who dies from AIDS by 1997. At present in a population of 160,000, 3600 cases of AIDS have appeared. In adjusting to the drought, the population has had to sell off livestock and their main assets, which has depressed the market value. In addition, 33% of the animals in the southern district have died from corridor disease. The loss of trained oxen will affect ploughing next year. Relief maize is the only hope for subsistence farmers with little or no money, no food in the granary, and no prospect for improvement. Wealthy farmers have had their difficulties also. One man borrowed money to buy fertilizer and maize seed and lost his investment. Maize seed production has been reduced by 50% as a result of the drought, although government authorities have reassured

  7. Exploring the linkage between drought, high temperatures, and hydrologic sensitivities: A case study of the 2012 Great Plains drought.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Livneh, B.; Hoerling, M. P.

    2014-12-01

    The occurrence of drought is associated with agricultural loss, water supply shortfalls, and other economic impacts. Here we explore the physical relationships between precipitation deficits, high temperatures, and hydrologic responses as a pathway to better anticipate drought impacts. Current methodologies to predict hydrologic scarcity include local monitoring of river flows, remote sensing of land-surface wetness, drought indices, expert judgment, climate indices (e.g. SST-relationships) and the application of hydrologic models. At longer lead times, predictions of drought have most frequently been made on the basis of GCM ensembles, with subsequent downscaling of those to scales over which hydrologic predictions can be made. This study focuses on two important aspects of drought. First, we explore the causal hydro-climatic timeline of a drought event, namely (a) the lack of precipitation, which serves to reduce soil moisture and produce (b) a skewed Bowen ratio, i.e. comparatively more sensible heating (warming) with less ET, resulting in (c) anomalously warm conditions. We seek to assess the extent to which the lack of precipitation contributes to warming temperatures, and the further effects of that warming on hydrology and the severity of drought impacts. An ensemble of GCM simulations will be used to explore the evolution of the land surface energy budget during a recent Great Plains drought event, which will subsequently be used to drive a hydrologic model. Second, we examine the impacts of the critical assumptions relating climatic variables with water demand, specifically the relationship between potential evapotranspiration (PET) and temperature. The common oversimplification in relating PET to temperature is explored against a more physically consistent energy balance estimate of PET, using the Penman-Monteith approach and the hydrologic impacts are presented. Results from this work are anticipated to have broad relevance for future water management

  8. Consumer contribution to food contamination in Brazil: modelling the food safety risk in the home

    OpenAIRE

    Sergio Paulo Olinto da Motta; Steve Flint; Paul Perry; Alasdair Noble

    2014-01-01

    Foodborne diseases are among the most widespread public health issues, killing about 2.2 million people annually, and costing hundreds of billions of US dollars for governments, companies, families and consumers (WHO, 2007). In Brazil, foodborne diseases acquired in the home account for 55% of notified outbreaks (BRASIL, 2012). Several studies have investigated aspects of consumer behaviour concerning food poisoning, mapping practices in the home, but it remains a challenge to obtain a full p...

  9. Identification and comparative analysis of drought-associated microRNAs in two cowpea genotypes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roberts Philip A

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Cowpea (Vigna unguiculata is an important crop in arid and semi-arid regions and is a good model for studying drought tolerance. MicroRNAs (miRNAs are known to play critical roles in plant stress responses, but drought-associated miRNAs have not been identified in cowpea. In addition, it is not understood how miRNAs might contribute to different capacities of drought tolerance in different cowpea genotypes. Results We generated deep sequencing small RNA reads from two cowpea genotypes (CB46, drought-sensitive, and IT93K503-1, drought-tolerant that grew under well-watered and drought stress conditions. We mapped small RNA reads to cowpea genomic sequences and identified 157 miRNA genes that belong to 89 families. Among 44 drought-associated miRNAs, 30 were upregulated in drought condition and 14 were downregulated. Although miRNA expression was in general consistent in two genotypes, we found that nine miRNAs were predominantly or exclusively expressed in one of the two genotypes and that 11 miRNAs were drought-regulated in only one genotype, but not the other. Conclusions These results suggest that miRNAs may play important roles in drought tolerance in cowpea and may be a key factor in determining the level of drought tolerance in different cowpea genotypes.

  10. Linking dynamic phenotyping with metabolite analysis to study natural variation in drought responses of Brachypodium distachyon

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lorraine H.C. Fisher

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Drought is an important environmental stress limiting the productivity of major crops worldwide. Understanding drought tolerance and possible mechanisms for improving drought resistance is therefore a prerequisite to develop drought-tolerant crops that produce significant yields with reduced amounts of water. Brachypodium distachyon (Brachypodium is a key model species for cereals, forage grasses and energy grasses. In this study, initial screening of a Brachypodium germplasm collection consisting of 138 different ecotypes exposed to progressive drought, highlighted the natural variation in morphology, biomass accumulation and responses to drought stress. A core set of ten ecotypes, classified as being either tolerant, susceptible or intermediate, in response to drought stress, were exposed to mild or severe (respectively 15% and 0% soil water content drought stress and phenomic parameters linked to growth and colour changes were assessed. When exposed to severe drought stress, phenotypic data and metabolite profiling combined with multivariate analysis revealed a remarkable consistency in separating the selected ecotypes into their different pre-defined drought tolerance groups. Increases in several metabolites, including for the phytohormones jasmonic acid and salicylic acid, and TCA-cycle intermediates, were positively correlated with biomass yield and with reduced yellow pixel counts; suggestive of delayed senescence, both key target traits for crop improvement to drought stress. While metabolite analysis also separated ecotypes into the distinct tolerance groupings after exposure to mild drought stress, similar analysis of the phenotypic data failed to do so, confirming the value of metabolomics to investigate early responses to drought stress. The results highlight the potential of combining the analyses of phenotypic and metabolic responses to identify key mechanisms and markers associated with drought tolerance in both the Brachypodium

  11. Modeling HIV/AIDS drug price determinants in Brazil: is generic competition a myth?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meiners, Constance; Sagaon-Teyssier, Luis; Hasenclever, Lia; Moatti, Jean-Paul

    2011-01-01

    Brazil became the first developing country to guarantee free and universal access to HIV/AIDS treatment, with antiretroviral drugs (ARVs) being delivered to nearly 190,000 patients. The analysis of ARV price evolution and market dynamics in Brazil can help anticipate issues soon to afflict other developing countries, as the 2010 revision of the World Health Organization guidelines shifts demand towards more expensive treatments, and, at the same time, current evolution of international legislation and trade agreements on intellectual property rights may reduce availability of generic drugs for HIV care. Our analyses are based on effective prices paid for ARV procurement in Brazil between 1996 and 2009. Data panel structure was exploited to gather ex-ante and ex-post information and address various sources of statistical bias. In-difference estimation offered in-depth information on ARV market characteristics which significantly influence prices. Although overall ARV prices follow a declining trend, changing characteristics in the generic segment help explain recent increase in generic ARV prices. Our results show that generic suppliers are more likely to respond to factors influencing demand size and market competition, while originator suppliers tend to set prices strategically to offset compulsory licensing threats and generic competition. In order to guarantee the long term sustainability of access to antiretroviral treatment, our findings highlight the importance of preserving and stimulating generic market dynamics to sustain developing countries' bargaining power in price negotiations undertaken with originator companies.

  12. A European Drought Reference Database: Design and Online Implementation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stagge, J.H.; Tallaksen, L.M.; Kohn, I.; Stahl, K.; Loon, van A.

    2013-01-01

    This report presents the structure and status of the online European Drought Reference (EDR) database. This website provides detailed historical information regarding major historical European drought events. Each drought event is summarized using climatological drought indices, hydrological drought

  13. Soil microbiology under drought stress

    Science.gov (United States)

    he severity of the 2012 drought affecting much of the Midwestern U.S. is readily observed in the extremely stressed conditions of crops and natural vegetation. However, we may not realize that the extent of drought effects is just as severe on the biology below the soil surface. Detrimental effects ...

  14. Drought impact on forest carbon dynamics and fluxes in Amazonia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doughty, Christopher E; Metcalfe, D B; Girardin, C A J; Amézquita, F Farfán; Cabrera, D Galiano; Huasco, W Huaraca; Silva-Espejo, J E; Araujo-Murakami, A; da Costa, M C; Rocha, W; Feldpausch, T R; Mendoza, A L M; da Costa, A C L; Meir, P; Phillips, O L; Malhi, Y

    2015-03-05

    In 2005 and 2010 the Amazon basin experienced two strong droughts, driven by shifts in the tropical hydrological regime possibly associated with global climate change, as predicted by some global models. Tree mortality increased after the 2005 drought, and regional atmospheric inversion modelling showed basin-wide decreases in CO2 uptake in 2010 compared with 2011 (ref. 5). But the response of tropical forest carbon cycling to these droughts is not fully understood and there has been no detailed multi-site investigation in situ. Here we use several years of data from a network of thirteen 1-ha forest plots spread throughout South America, where each component of net primary production (NPP), autotrophic respiration and heterotrophic respiration is measured separately, to develop a better mechanistic understanding of the impact of the 2010 drought on the Amazon forest. We find that total NPP remained constant throughout the drought. However, towards the end of the drought, autotrophic respiration, especially in roots and stems, declined significantly compared with measurements in 2009 made in the absence of drought, with extended decreases in autotrophic respiration in the three driest plots. In the year after the drought, total NPP remained constant but the allocation of carbon shifted towards canopy NPP and away from fine-root NPP. Both leaf-level and plot-level measurements indicate that severe drought suppresses photosynthesis. Scaling these measurements to the entire Amazon basin with rainfall data, we estimate that drought suppressed Amazon-wide photosynthesis in 2010 by 0.38 petagrams of carbon (0.23-0.53 petagrams of carbon). Overall, we find that during this drought, instead of reducing total NPP, trees prioritized growth by reducing autotrophic respiration that was unrelated to growth. This suggests that trees decrease investment in tissue maintenance and defence, in line with eco-evolutionary theories that trees are competitively disadvantaged in the

  15. Empirical analysis of farmers' drought risk perception: objective factors, personal circumstances, and social influence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duinen, Rianne van; Filatova, Tatiana; Geurts, Peter; Veen, Anne van der

    2015-04-01

    Drought-induced water shortage and salinization are a global threat to agricultural production. With climate change, drought risk is expected to increase as drought events are assumed to occur more frequently and to become more severe. The agricultural sector's adaptive capacity largely depends on farmers' drought risk perceptions. Understanding the formation of farmers' drought risk perceptions is a prerequisite to designing effective and efficient public drought risk management strategies. Various strands of literature point at different factors shaping individual risk perceptions. Economic theory points at objective risk variables, whereas psychology and sociology identify subjective risk variables. This study investigates and compares the contribution of objective and subjective factors in explaining farmers' drought risk perception by means of survey data analysis. Data on risk perceptions, farm characteristics, and various other personality traits were collected from farmers located in the southwest Netherlands. From comparing the explanatory power of objective and subjective risk factors in separate models and a full model of risk perception, it can be concluded that farmers' risk perceptions are shaped by both rational and emotional factors. In a full risk perception model, being located in an area with external water supply, owning fields with salinization issues, cultivating drought-/salt-sensitive crops, farm revenue, drought risk experience, and perceived control are significant explanatory variables of farmers' drought risk perceptions. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

  16. Modelling the spatial distribution of Fasciola hepatica in bovines using decision tree, logistic regression and GIS query approaches for Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bennema, S C; Molento, M B; Scholte, R G; Carvalho, O S; Pritsch, I

    2017-11-01

    Fascioliasis is a condition caused by the trematode Fasciola hepatica. In this paper, the spatial distribution of F. hepatica in bovines in Brazil was modelled using a decision tree approach and a logistic regression, combined with a geographic information system (GIS) query. In the decision tree and the logistic model, isothermality had the strongest influence on disease prevalence. Also, the 50-year average precipitation in the warmest quarter of the year was included as a risk factor, having a negative influence on the parasite prevalence. The risk maps developed using both techniques, showed a predicted higher prevalence mainly in the South of Brazil. The prediction performance seemed to be high, but both techniques failed to reach a high accuracy in predicting the medium and high prevalence classes to the entire country. The GIS query map, based on the range of isothermality, minimum temperature of coldest month, precipitation of warmest quarter of the year, altitude and the average dailyland surface temperature, showed a possibility of presence of F. hepatica in a very large area. The risk maps produced using these methods can be used to focus activities of animal and public health programmes, even on non-evaluated F. hepatica areas.

  17. Adverse effects of increasing drought on air quality via natural processes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Wang

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Drought is a recurring extreme of the climate system with well-documented impacts on agriculture and water resources. The strong perturbation of drought to the land biosphere and atmospheric water cycle will affect atmospheric composition, the nature and extent of which are not well understood. Here we present observational evidence that US air quality is significantly correlated with drought severity. Severe droughts during the period of 1990–2014 were found associated with growth-season (March–October mean enhancements in surface ozone and PM2.5 of 3.5 ppbv (8 % and 1.6 µg m−3 (17 %, respectively. The pollutant enhancements associated with droughts do not appear to be affected by the decreasing trend of US anthropogenic emissions, indicating natural processes as the primary cause. Elevated ozone and PM2.5 are attributed to the combined effects of drought on deposition, natural emissions (wildfires, biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs, and dust, and chemistry. Most climate–chemistry models are not able to reproduce the observed correlations of ozone and PM2.5 to drought severity. The model deficiencies are partly attributed to the lack of drought-induced changes in land–atmosphere exchanges of reactive gases and particles and misrepresentation of cloud changes under drought conditions. By applying the observed relationships between drought and air pollutants to climate model projected drought occurrences, we estimate an increase of 1–6 % for ground-level O3 and 1–16 % for PM2.5 in the US by 2100 compared to the 2000s due to increasing drought alone. Drought thus poses an important aspect of climate change penalty on air quality, and a better prediction of such effects would require improvements in model processes.

  18. Adverse effects of increasing drought on air quality via natural processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yuxuan; Xie, Yuanyu; Dong, Wenhao; Ming, Yi; Wang, Jun; Shen, Lu

    2017-10-01

    Drought is a recurring extreme of the climate system with well-documented impacts on agriculture and water resources. The strong perturbation of drought to the land biosphere and atmospheric water cycle will affect atmospheric composition, the nature and extent of which are not well understood. Here we present observational evidence that US air quality is significantly correlated with drought severity. Severe droughts during the period of 1990-2014 were found associated with growth-season (March-October) mean enhancements in surface ozone and PM2.5 of 3.5 ppbv (8 %) and 1.6 µg m-3 (17 %), respectively. The pollutant enhancements associated with droughts do not appear to be affected by the decreasing trend of US anthropogenic emissions, indicating natural processes as the primary cause. Elevated ozone and PM2.5 are attributed to the combined effects of drought on deposition, natural emissions (wildfires, biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs), and dust), and chemistry. Most climate-chemistry models are not able to reproduce the observed correlations of ozone and PM2.5 to drought severity. The model deficiencies are partly attributed to the lack of drought-induced changes in land-atmosphere exchanges of reactive gases and particles and misrepresentation of cloud changes under drought conditions. By applying the observed relationships between drought and air pollutants to climate model projected drought occurrences, we estimate an increase of 1-6 % for ground-level O3 and 1-16 % for PM2.5 in the US by 2100 compared to the 2000s due to increasing drought alone. Drought thus poses an important aspect of climate change penalty on air quality, and a better prediction of such effects would require improvements in model processes.

  19. Prediction of ground-level ozone concentration in São Paulo, Brazil: Deterministic versus statistic models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoshyaripour, G.; Brasseur, G.; Andrade, M. F.; Gavidia-Calderón, M.; Bouarar, I.; Ynoue, R. Y.

    2016-11-01

    Two state-of-the-art models (deterministic: Weather Research and Forecast model with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) and statistic: Artificial Neural Networks: (ANN)) are implemented to predict the ground-level ozone concentration in São Paulo (SP), Brazil. Two domains are set up for WRF-Chem simulations: a coarse domain (with 50 km horizontal resolution) including whole South America (D1) and a nested domain (with horizontal resolution of 10 km) including South Eastern Brazil (D2). To evaluate the spatial distribution of the chemical species, model results are compared to the Measurements of Pollution in The Troposphere (MOPITT) data, showing that the model satisfactorily predicts the CO concentrations in both D1 and D2. The model also reproduces the measurements made at three air quality monitoring stations in SP with the correlation coefficients of 0.74, 0.70, and 0.77 for O3 and 0.51, 0.48, and 0.57 for NOx. The input selection for ANN model is carried out using Forward Selection (FS) method. FS-ANN is then trained and validated using the data from two air quality monitoring stations, showing correlation coefficients of 0.84 and 0.75 for daily mean and 0.64 and 0.67 for daily peak ozone during the test stage. Then, both WRF-Chem and FS-ANN are deployed to forecast the daily mean and peak concentrations of ozone in two stations during 5-20 August 2012. Results show that WRF-Chem preforms better in predicting mean and peak ozone concentrations as well as in conducting mechanistic and sensitivity analysis. FS-ANN is only advantageous in predicting mean daily ozone concentrations considering its significantly lower computational costs and ease of development and implementation, compared to that of WRF-Chem.

  20. Hydrological Drought in the Anthropocene: Impacts of Local Water Extraction and Reservoir Regulation in the U.S.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wan, Wenhua; Zhao, Jianshi; Li, Hong-Yi; Mishra, Ashok; Ruby Leung, L.; Hejazi, Mohamad; Wang, Wei; Lu, Hui; Deng, Zhiqun; Demissisie, Yonas; Wang, Hao

    2017-11-01

    Hydrological drought is a substantial negative deviation from normal hydrologic conditions and is influenced by climate and human activities such as water management. By perturbing the streamflow regime, climate change and water management may significantly alter drought characteristics in the future. Here we utilize a high-resolution integrated modeling framework that represents water management in terms of both local surface water extraction and reservoir regulation and use the Standardized Streamflow Index to quantify hydrological drought. We explore the impacts of water management on hydrological drought over the contiguous U.S. in a warming climate with and without emissions mitigation. Despite the uncertainty of climate change impacts, local surface water extraction consistently intensifies drought that dominates at the regional to national scale. However, reservoir regulation alleviates drought by enhancing summer flow downstream of reservoirs. The relative dominance of drought intensification or relief is largely determined by the water demand, with drought intensification dominating in regions with intense water demand such as the Great Plains and California, while drought relief dominates in regions with low water demand. At the national level, water management increases the spatial extent of extreme drought despite some alleviations of moderate to severe drought. In an emissions mitigation scenario with increased irrigation demand for bioenergy production, water management intensifies drought more than the business-as-usual scenario at the national level, so the impacts of emissions mitigation must be evaluated by considering its benefit in reducing warming and evapotranspiration against its effects on increasing water demand and intensifying drought.

  1. Not all droughts are created equal: translating meteorological drought into woody plant mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderegg, Leander D L; Anderegg, William R L; Berry, Joseph A

    2013-07-01

    Widespread drought-induced mortality of woody plants has recently occurred worldwide, is likely to be exacerbated by future climate change and holds large ecological consequences. Yet despite decades of research on plant-water relations, the pathways through which drought causes plant mortality are poorly understood. Recent work on the physiology of tree mortality has begun to reveal how physiological dysfunction induced by water stress leads to plant death; however, we are still far from being able to predict tree mortality using easily observed or modeled meteorological variables. In this review, we contend that, in order to fully understand when and where plants will exceed mortality thresholds when drought occurs, we must understand the entire path by which precipitation deficit is translated into physiological dysfunction and lasting physiological damage. In temperate ecosystems with seasonal climate patterns, precipitation characteristics such as seasonality, timing, form (snow versus rain) and intensity interact with edaphic characteristics to determine when and how much water is actually available to plants as soil moisture. Plant and community characteristics then mediate how quickly water is used and seasonally varying plant physiology determines whether the resulting soil moisture deficit is physiologically damaging. Recent research suggests that drought seasonality and timing matter for how an ecosystem experiences drought. But, mortality studies that bridge the gaps between climatology, hydrology, plant ecology and plant physiology are rare. Drawing upon a broad hydrological and ecological perspective, we highlight key and underappreciated processes that may mediate drought-induced tree mortality and propose steps to better include these components in current research.

  2. Deep Sequencing of Suppression Subtractive Hybridisation Drought and Recovery Libraries of the Non-model CropTrifolium repensL.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bisaga, Maciej; Lowe, Matthew; Hegarty, Matthew; Abberton, Michael; Ravagnani, Adriana

    2017-01-01

    White clover is a short-lived perennial whose persistence is greatly affected by abiotic stresses, particularly drought. The aim of this work was to characterize its molecular response to water deficit and recovery following re-hydration to identify targets for the breeding of tolerant varieties. We created a white clover reference transcriptome of 16,193 contigs by deep sequencing (mean base coverage 387x) four Suppression Subtractive Hybridization (SSH) libraries (a forward and a reverse library for each treatment) constructed from young leaf tissue of white clover at the onset of the response to drought and recovery. Reads from individual libraries were then mapped to the reference transcriptome and processed comparing expression level data. The pipeline generated four robust sets of transcripts induced and repressed in the leaves of plants subjected to water deficit stress (6,937 and 3,142, respectively) and following re-hydration (6,695 and 4,897, respectively). Semi-quantitative polymerase chain reaction was used to verify the expression pattern of 16 genes. The differentially expressed transcripts were functionally annotated and mapped to biological processes and pathways. In agreement with similar studies in other crops, the majority of transcripts up-regulated in response to drought belonged to metabolic processes, such as amino acid, carbohydrate, and lipid metabolism, while transcripts involved in photosynthesis, such as components of the photosystem and the biosynthesis of photosynthetic pigments, were up-regulated during recovery. The data also highlighted the role of raffinose family oligosaccharides (RFOs) and the possible delayed response of the flavonoid pathways in the initial response of white clover to water withdrawal. The work presented in this paper is to our knowledge the first large scale molecular analysis of the white clover response to drought stress and re-hydration. The data generated provide a valuable genomic resource for marker

  3. U.S. agriculture in a modern Dust Bowl drought

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glotter, M.; Chryssanthacopoulos, J.; Moyer, E. J.; Elliott, J. W.

    2015-12-01

    Drought-induced agricultural loss is one of the leading weather-related harms to the U.S. economy, but little is known about the effects of extreme droughts or of consecutive multi-year drought events on agriculture. Three droughts in the early 1930s make the Dust Bowl era the driest and hottest for agriculture in modern U.S. history and a useful analog to study extreme weather and its impact on human society. Improvements in technology and farm management over the last eight decades have dramatically increased average crop yields in the U.S., but the elimination of most non-climatic crop stresses means rainfed yields are now more tightly linked to climate. To understand how a 1930s-type drought would affect agriculture in the modern U.S., we drive empirical and biophysical process-based crop models with 1930s weather -- with and without increases in mean temperature -- to estimate effects of successive droughts on current and near-future U.S. maize, soy and wheat production. Our results suggest that Dust-Bowl-type droughts today would have unprecedented consequences for agricultural productivity, with single-year losses up to ~50% larger than the central U.S. drought of 2012, one of the most severe for modern agriculture. Sensitivity tests imply that damages at these extremes are highly sensitive to temperature. If extreme drought conditions are even modestly warmer (1-4 oC), single-year losses jump to more than twice the 2012 drought. Assuming that repeated crop failure over a relatively short period is likely to induce changes to land-use and management, we find that a future Dust-Bowl-like drought, especially under higher temperature scenarios, could lead to significant long-term consequences for U.S. agriculture. Changes in cl