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Sample records for box jenkins forecasting

  1. A study of lifting scheme and Box Jenkins approach for short term load forecasting

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lin, W.B. [Far East Univ., Tainan, Taiwan (China). Dept. of Electrical Engineering; Lee, C.M. [Nan Kai Inst. of Technology, Nantou, Taiwan (China). Dept. of Computer and Communication Engineering; Shih, K.R. [National Formosa Univ., Yunlin, Taiwan (China). Dept. of Electrical Engineering; Huang, C.H. [National Yunlin Univ. of Science and Technology, Yunlin, Taiwan (China). Graduate School of Engineering Science and Technology

    2008-07-01

    This paper presented a new approach for short term load forecasting that combined the lifting scheme and Box Jenkins technique. The lifting scheme based on multi-revolution analysis (MRA) was used to extract the features and characteristics of load data which stand for low frequency and high frequency components. The lifting scheme is a general and flexible method for the construction of bi-orthogonal wavelets entirely in the spatial domain. It has many advantages over the classical wavelet transform, including fast calculation and in-place implementation of the wavelet transform. As such, forecasting accuracy improved. Based on wavelet MRA, the original load series was decomposed through the lifting scheme into different sub-series at different levels of revolution, which showed the different frequency characteristic of the load. The sub-series was then forecasted by the Box Jenkins seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model (SARIMA). The proposed method was tested in the hourly load forecast provided by the Taipower Company. A comparison of the proposed method with the Box Jenkins method demonstrated that the proposed method is accurate for short term load forecasting. 21 refs., 3 tabs., 9 figs.

  2. BoxJenkins Models For Forecasting The Daily Degrees Of Temperature In Sulaimani City.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Samira Muhammad Salh

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available The Auto-regressive model in the time series is regarded one of the statistical articles which is more used because it gives us a simple method to limit the relation between variables time series. More over it is one of BoxJenkins models to limit the time series in the forecasting the value of phenomenon in the future so that study aims for the practical analysis studying for the auto-regressive models in the time series, through one of BoxJenkins models for forecasting the daily degrees of temperature in Sulaimani city for the year (2012- Sept.2013 and then for building a sample in the way of special data in the degrees of temperature and its using in the calculating the future forecasting . the style which is used is the descriptive and analyzing by the help of data that is dealt with statistically and which is collected from the official resources To reach his mentioned aim , the discussion of the following items has been done by the theoretical part which includes the idea of time series and its quality and the autocorrelation and BoxJenkins and then the practical part which includes the statistical analysis for the data and the discussion of the theoretical part, so they reached to a lot of conclusions as it had come in the practical study for building autoregressive models of time series as the mode was very suitable is the auto-regressive model and model moving average by the degree (1,1,1.

  3. Wind Speed Prediction Using Box-Jenkins Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Helga Silaghi

    2008-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the Box-Jenkins method used for wind speed prediction. Box-Jenkins methodology finds the best fit of a time series to past values in order to make forecasts. This methodology uses the autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation functions.

  4. Prévision de ventes mensuelles de produits pétroliers : une application de la méthodologie Box-Jenkins Forecasting Monthly Sales of Petroleum Products: an Application of the Box-Jenkins Methodology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gasnier Y.

    2006-11-01

    Full Text Available Après avoir exposé le problème de prévision qui se posait à la société Elf France, et présenté sa généralisation à la plupart des entreprises, nous définirons la place que tient cette étude dans le vaste débat sur la prévision à court terme actuelle. La recherche d'une méthode appropriée pour la résolution du problème posé passe d'abord par une synthèse de la littérature : après un classement méthodologique des techniques, une analyse critique permet d'effectuer le choix de la méthode Box-Jenkins dont nous proposons une présentation sommaire. La seconde grande partie concerne l'application pratique relative à la prévision et au suivi de nos six séries pétrolières : après avoir résolu le problème par une démarche séquentielle, intégrant progressivement les développements de complexité croissante, une analyse critique évalue les résultats obtenus et propose une extension prometteuse des travaux ainsi que les grands axes de développement pour l'avenir. En dernier lieu, la conclusion apporte sa contribution au débat sur la modélisation à court terme actuelle et définit le rôle pivot que devrait jouer la méthodologie de Box et Jenkins. This article contains two main parts. The first one is theoretical, and the second one is practical. After describing the forecasting problems faced by Elf France and its generalization to most companies, the position this study occupies in the vast debate on current short-term forecasting is defined. The search for a suitable method for solving the problem raised first goes via a synthesis of the literature. After making a methodological classification of techniques, a critical analysis can be used to choose the Box-Jenkins methods which is outlined. The second main part is relative to the practical application concerning forecasting and the following of our six petroleum series. After the problem has been solved by a sequential procedure, progressively integrating

  5. Aplicación de la metodología Box-Jenkins para pronóstico de precios en jitomate Application of Box-Jenkins methodology for forecasting prices in tomatoes

    OpenAIRE

    Gaspar Marroquín Martínez; Luis Eduardo Chalita Tovar

    2011-01-01

    Los productos del sector agroalimentario tienen como características económicas distintivas, la alta variabilidad en sus precios. Teniendo en cuenta la incertidumbre de los precios, una posible forma de planificar racionalmente la toma de decisiones, que consiste en elaborar pronósticos confiables del comportamiento futuro de esa variable. En este trabajo se usó la metodología Box-Jenkins, para identificar un modelo econométrico autoregresivo integrado de media móvil (ARIMA), que se ajusta al...

  6. From the ideas of «Caterpillar»-SSA and Box-Jenkins methods to decomposition method of forecasting and decomposition ANN

    OpenAIRE

    Щелкалин, Виталий Николаевич

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents an overview of the rapidly developing in recent years by the author in various fields of science and technology of modern mathematical models and methods based on joint usage of ideas of the “Caterpillar”-SSA and Box-Jenkins methods. The proposed by author models are a priority at present probabilistic and deterministic nonlinear decomposition models

  7. Previsão de demanda: uma aplicação dos modelos Box-Jenkins na área de assistência técnica de computadores pessoais Demand forecasting: an application of the Box-Jenkins models in the technical assistance of personal computer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liane Werner

    2003-04-01

    Full Text Available A previsão de demanda é uma atividade importante para auxiliar na determinação dos recursos necessários para a empresa. Neste artigo, a metodologia de Box-Jenkins foi utilizada para analisar dados históricos de uma empresa de assistência técnica de computadores pessoais e obter previsões do número de atendimentos. A empresa estudada apresenta três tipos de clientes diferenciados: contratos, garantia e avulsos. Como cada segmento de clientes tem suas peculiaridades, a previsão de demanda foi direcionada a cada tipo, buscando representar o comportamento de tendência e a sazonalidade por meio dos modelos de Box-Jenkins. A obtenção dos modelos mais adequados foi baseada na análise de gráficos e em testes estatísticos próprios da metodologia, os quais subsidiaram a decisão de adotar o modelo AR(1 para prever o número de atendimentos dos clientes tipo contrato, o modelo ARIMA(2,1,0 para os clientes tipo garantia e um modelo sazonal SARIMA(0,1,0(0,1,112 para os clientes tipo avulsos.Demand forecasting is an important tool to aid on the determination of necessary resources of a given company. In this paper, the Box-Jenkins methodology was applied to analyze historical data of a personal computer repair company and provide a forecast for the number of service calls. The company studied presents three segments of clients: contracts, warranty, and on-call. As each client has it own characteristics, in order to better represent tendency and seasonality behavior through the Box-Jenkins models, a specific forecasting model was developed for each segment. The choice of the optimum models were based into graphic analysis and statistical tests, which lead to the decision of adopting the AR(1 model to foresee the number of contract clients, the ARIMA(2,1,0 model for warranty clients and the SARIMA(0,1,0(0,1,112 seasonal model for on-call clients.

  8. Prévision de ventes mensuelles de produits pétroliers : une application de la méthodologie Box-Jenkins Forecasting Monthly Sales of Petroleum Products: an Application of the Box-Jenkins Methodology

    OpenAIRE

    Gasnier Y.

    2006-01-01

    Après avoir exposé le problème de prévision qui se posait à la société Elf France, et présenté sa généralisation à la plupart des entreprises, nous définirons la place que tient cette étude dans le vaste débat sur la prévision à court terme actuelle. La recherche d'une méthode appropriée pour la résolution du problème posé passe d'abord par une synthèse de la littérature : après un classement méthodologique des techniques, une analyse critique permet d'effectuer le choix de la méthode Box-Jen...

  9. 太阳日总辐射量的Box-Jenkins模型%BOX-JENKINS MODEL FOR DAILY SOLAR RADIATION

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王敏; 丁明

    2012-01-01

    基于天文辐射和日照率数据,采用系统辨识的方法建立了模拟太阳日总辐射量的BJ( Box-Jenkins)模型.该模型与传统的(A)ngstr(m)的日总辐射量的计算公式相比,模拟和预测效果更好.%Based on astronomical radiation and percentage of possible sunshine data, the BJ (Box-Jenkins) model for daily solar irradiation is established using system identification method. The simulation and the one-step forecast results of the BJ model are better than Angstrm formula of the calculation.

  10. Time-series analysis with a hybrid Box-Jenkins ARIMA and neural network model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Dilli R Aryal; WANG Yao-wu(王要武)

    2004-01-01

    Time-series analysis is important to a wide range of disciplines transcending both the physical and social sciences for proactive policy decisions. Statistical models have sound theoretical basis and have been successfully used in a number of problem domains in time series forecasting. Due to power and flexibility, Box-Jenkins ARIMA model has gained enormous popularity in many areas and research practice for the last three decades.More recently, the neural networks have been shown to be a promising alternative tool for modeling and forecasting owing to their ability to capture the nonlinearity in the data. However, despite the popularity and the superiority of ARIMA and ANN models, the empirical forecasting performance has been rather mixed so that no single method is best in every situation. In this study, a hybrid ARIMA and neural networks model to time series forecasting is proposed. The basic idea behind the model combination is to use each model's unique features to capture different patterns in the data. With three real data sets, empirical results evidently show that the hybrid model outperforms ARIMA and ANN model noticeably in terms of forecasting accuracy used in isolation.

  11. Stochastic gradient algorithm for a dual-rate Box-Jenkins model based on auxiliary model and FIR model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Jing CHEN; Rui-feng DING

    2014-01-01

    Based on the work in Ding and Ding (2008), we develop a modifi ed stochastic gradient (SG) parameter estimation algorithm for a dual-rate Box-Jenkins model by using an auxiliary model. We simplify the complex dual-rate Box-Jenkins model to two fi nite impulse response (FIR) models, present an auxiliary model to estimate the missing outputs and the unknown noise variables, and compute all the unknown parameters of the system with colored noises. Simulation results indicate that the proposed method is effective.

  12. 基于系统辨识的地表太阳辐射Box-Jenkins模型的建立%ESTABLISHMENT OF BOX-JENKINS MODEL FOR SURFACE SOLAR RADIATION BASED ON SYSTEM IDENTIFICATION METHOD

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王敏; 丁明

    2012-01-01

    Astronomical radiation as the input data, the BJ (Box-Jenkins) model for surface solar radiation was established using system identification method. The model was affirmed to be workable by residual analysis and zero-pole test. This method can be used to predict the surface solar radiation of 5 -15 minutes time interval, the prediction results can provide solar radiation data for power output forecast of solar PV power plants.%利用天文辐射作为输入数据,采用系统辨识的方法得到地表太阳辐射的BJ(Box-Jenkins)模型,并通过残 差分析和零极点检验.该方法可用于预测5~ 15min时间间隔的地表太阳辐射,为太阳能电站的功率输出预测提供太阳能辐射数据.

  13. Jenkins essentials

    CERN Document Server

    Soni, Mitesh

    2015-01-01

    If you are a Jenkins novice or beginner with a basic understanding of continuous integration, then this is the book for you. Beginners in Jenkins will get quick hands-on experience and gain the confidence to go ahead and explore the use of Jenkins further.

  14. Jenkins The Definitive Guide

    CERN Document Server

    Smart, John

    2011-01-01

    Streamline software development with Jenkins, the popular Java-based open source tool that has revolutionized the way teams think about Continuous Integration (CI). This complete guide shows you how to automate your build, integration, release, and deployment processes with Jenkins-and demonstrates how CI can save you time, money, and many headaches. Ideal for developers, software architects, and project managers, Jenkins: The Definitive Guide is both a CI tutorial and a comprehensive Jenkins reference. Through its wealth of best practices and real-world tips, you'll discover how easy it is

  15. Jenkins continuous integration cookbook

    CERN Document Server

    Berg, Alan Mark

    2015-01-01

    If you are a Java developer, a software architect, a technical project manager, a build manager, or a development or QA engineer, then this book is ideal for you. A basic understanding of the software development life cycle and Java development is needed, as well as a rudimentary understanding of Jenkins.

  16. Multi-output Model with Box-Jenkins Operators of Quadratic Indices for Prediction of Malaria and Cancer Inhibitors Targeting Ubiquitin- Proteasome Pathway (UPP) Proteins.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Casañola-Martin, Gerardo M; Le-Thi-Thu, Huong; Pérez-Giménez, Facundo; Marrero-Ponce, Yovani; Merino-Sanjuán, Matilde; Abad, Concepción; González-Díaz, Humberto

    2016-01-01

    The ubiquitin-proteasome pathway (UPP) is the primary degradation system of short-lived regulatory proteins. Cellular processes such as the cell cycle, signal transduction, gene expression, DNA repair and apoptosis are regulated by this UPP and dysfunctions in this system have important implications in the development of cancer, neurodegenerative, cardiac and other human pathologies. UPP seems also to be very important in the function of eukaryote cells of the human parasites like Plasmodium falciparum, the causal agent of the neglected disease Malaria. Hence, the UPP could be considered as an attractive target for the development of compounds with Anti-Malarial or Anti-cancer properties. Recent online databases like ChEMBL contains a larger quantity of information in terms of pharmacological assay protocols and compounds tested as UPP inhibitors under many different conditions. This large amount of data give new openings for the computer-aided identification of UPP inhibitors, but the intrinsic data diversity is an obstacle for the development of successful classifiers. To solve this problem here we used the Bob-Jenkins moving average operators and the atom-based quadratic molecular indices calculated with the software TOMOCOMD-CARDD (TC) to develop a quantitative model for the prediction of the multiple outputs in this complex dataset. Our multi-target model can predict results for drugs against 22 molecular or cellular targets of different organisms with accuracies above 70% in both training and validation sets. PMID:26427384

  17. Forecasting Inflation in Chile Using State-Space and Regime-Switching Models

    OpenAIRE

    Francisco Nadal-De Simone

    2000-01-01

    The paper estimates two time-varying parameter models of Chilean inflation: a Phillips curve model and a small open economy model. Their out-of-sample forecasts are compared with those of simple Box-Jenkins models. The main findings are; forecasts that include the pre-announced inflation target as a regressor are relatively better; the Phillips curve model outperforms the small open economy model in out-of-sample forecasts; and although Box-Jenkins models outperform the two models for short-t...

  18. Forecasting with Dynamic Regression Models

    CERN Document Server

    Pankratz, Alan

    2012-01-01

    One of the most widely used tools in statistical forecasting, single equation regression models is examined here. A companion to the author's earlier work, Forecasting with Univariate Box-Jenkins Models: Concepts and Cases, the present text pulls together recent time series ideas and gives special attention to possible intertemporal patterns, distributed lag responses of output to input series and the auto correlation patterns of regression disturbance. It also includes six case studies.

  19. Planning and Forecasting Tourism Demand in Macedonia

    OpenAIRE

    Biljana PETREVSKA

    2011-01-01

    Having in mind that the concept of tourism planning could not be applied if forecasting of tourism demand is neglected, the paper underlines the importance of application of forecasting methods in projection of future tourism trends. In that respect, two quantitative methods were used: (1) the method of exponential smoothing, through two of its variants: Double Exponential Smoothing and the Holt-Winters; (2) the Box-Jenkins methodology, through several alternative specifications. The result o...

  20. Stock price forecasting: autoregressive modelling and fuzzy neural network

    OpenAIRE

    Marcek, Dusan

    2000-01-01

    Most models for the time series of stock prices have centered on autoregressive (AR) processes. Traditionaly, fundamantal Box-Jenkins analysis [3] have been the mainstream methodology used to develop time series models. Next, we briefly describe the develop a classical AR model for stock price forecasting. Then a fuzzy regression model is then introduced Following this description, an artificial fuzzy neural network based on B-spline member ship function is presented as an alternative to ...

  1. FORECASTING OF PULSES AREA AND PRODUCTION IN INDIA -AN ARIMA APPROACH

    OpenAIRE

    K. Prabakaran; P.Nadhiya; S.Bharathi; M.Isaivani

    2014-01-01

    Pulses area and production in India data for the period of 1950-51 to 2011-12 were analyzed by time series methods. Auto Correlation Function (ACF) and Partial Auto Correlation Function (PACF) were calculated for the data. Appropriate Box-Jenkins Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model was fitted. Validity of the model was tested using standard statistical techniques.ARIMA (1, 1, 0) and ARIMA (2, 1, 1) model were used to forecast area and production in India fo...

  2. Forecasting coconut production in the Philippines with ARIMA model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lim, Cristina Teresa

    2015-02-01

    The study aimed to depict the situation of the coconut industry in the Philippines for the future years applying Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) method. Data on coconut production, one of the major industrial crops of the country, for the period of 1990 to 2012 were analyzed using time-series methods. Autocorrelation (ACF) and partial autocorrelation functions (PACF) were calculated for the data. Appropriate Box-Jenkins autoregressive moving average model was fitted. Validity of the model was tested using standard statistical techniques. The forecasting power of autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model was used to forecast coconut production for the eight leading years.

  3. A multi-echelon menu item forecasting system for hospitals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Messersmith, A M; Moore, A N; Hoover, L W

    1978-05-01

    A multi-echelon system was designed to generate statistical forecasts of menu-item demand in hospitals from one- through twenty-eight-day intervals prior to patient meal service. The three interdependent echelons were: (1) Forecasting patient census, (2) estimating diet category census, and (3) calculating menu-item demand. Eighteen weeks of supper data were utilized to analyze diet category distribution patterns and menu-item preferences, to test forecasting models, and to evaluate the performance of the forecasting system. A cost function was used to evaluate the efficiency of the mathematical forecasting system and manual technique over a nine-week period. The cost of menu-item forecast errors resulting from the use of adaptive exponential smoothing and Box-Jenkins formulations was approximately 40 per cent less than costs associated with the manual system. PMID:649899

  4. Temporal patterns and a disease forecasting model of dengue hemorrhagic fever in Jakarta based on 10 years of surveillance data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sitepu, Monika S; Kaewkungwal, Jaranit; Luplerdlop, Nathanej; Soonthornworasiri, Ngamphol; Silawan, Tassanee; Poungsombat, Supawadee; Lawpoolsri, Saranath

    2013-03-01

    This study aimed to describe the temporal patterns of dengue transmission in Jakarta from 2001 to 2010, using data from the national surveillance system. The Box-Jenkins forecasting technique was used to develop a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model for the study period and subsequently applied to forecast DHF incidence in 2011 in Jakarta Utara, Jakarta Pusat, Jakarta Barat, and the municipalities of Jakarta Province. Dengue incidence in 2011, based on the forecasting model was predicted to increase from the previous year. PMID:23691630

  5. APPLICATION OF ARIMA MODEL FOR FORECASTING OF ROOM RESERVATION IN HOTELS

    OpenAIRE

    Kagnicioglu, Celal Hakan; Mogol, Mune

    2015-01-01

    Accomodation is the main area of tourism industry. In order to determine man, machine and material reguirement, right material must be on the right place on the right time. Man and material requirements are depend on room demand. Main aim of this study is to forecast hotel room demand for a five stars and international chain hotel that has been established in Ankara. In order to forecast the room demand, ARIMA, one of the most popular advanced Box-Jenkins Model, has been used. The reason of s...

  6. Network Bandwidth Utilization Forecast Model on High Bandwidth Network

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yoo, Wucherl; Sim, Alex

    2014-07-07

    With the increasing number of geographically distributed scientific collaborations and the scale of the data size growth, it has become more challenging for users to achieve the best possible network performance on a shared network. We have developed a forecast model to predict expected bandwidth utilization for high-bandwidth wide area network. The forecast model can improve the efficiency of resource utilization and scheduling data movements on high-bandwidth network to accommodate ever increasing data volume for large-scale scientific data applications. Univariate model is developed with STL and ARIMA on SNMP path utilization data. Compared with traditional approach such as Box-Jenkins methodology, our forecast model reduces computation time by 83.2percent. It also shows resilience against abrupt network usage change. The accuracy of the forecast model is within the standard deviation of the monitored measurements.

  7. Client-Friendly Forecasting: Seasonal Runoff Predictions Using Out-of-the-Box Indices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weil, P.

    2013-12-01

    For more than a century, statistical relationships have been recognized between atmospheric conditions at locations separated by thousands of miles, referred to as teleconnections. Some of the recognized teleconnections provide useful information about expected hydrologic conditions, so certain records of atmospheric conditions are quantified and published as hydroclimate indices. Certain hydroclimate indices can serve as strong leading indicators of climate patterns over North America and can be used to make skillful forecasts of seasonal runoff. The methodology described here creates a simple-to-use model that utilizes easily accessed data to make forecasts of April through September runoff months before the runoff season begins. For this project, forecasting models were developed for two snowmelt-driven river systems in Colorado and Wyoming. In addition to the global hydroclimate indices, the methodology uses several local hydrologic variables including the previous year's drought severity, headwater snow water equivalent and the reservoir contents for the major reservoirs in each basin. To improve the skill of the forecasts, logistic regression is used to develop a model that provides the likelihood that a year will fall into the upper, middle or lower tercile of historical flows. Categorical forecasting has two major advantages over modeling of specific flow amounts: (1) with less prediction outcomes models tend to have better predictive skill and (2) categorical models are very useful to clients and agencies with specific flow thresholds that dictate major changes in water resources management. The resulting methodology and functional forecasting model product is highly portable, applicable to many major river systems and easily explained to a non-technical audience.

  8. Tailored vs Black-Box Models for Forecasting Hourly Average Solar Irradiance

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Brabec, Marek; Paulescu, M.; Badescu, V.

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 111, January (2015), s. 320-331. ISSN 0038-092X R&D Projects: GA MŠk LD12009 Grant ostatní: European Cooperation in Science and Technology(XE) COST ES1002 Institutional support: RVO:67985807 Keywords : solar irradiance * forecasting * tilored statistical models Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research Impact factor: 3.469, year: 2014

  9. TIME SERIES FORECASTING USING NEURAL NETWORKS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    BOGDAN OANCEA

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Recent studies have shown the classification and prediction power of the Neural Networks. It has been demonstrated that a NN can approximate any continuous function. Neural networks have been successfully used for forecasting of financial data series. The classical methods used for time series prediction like Box-Jenkins or ARIMA assumes that there is a linear relationship between inputs and outputs. Neural Networks have the advantage that can approximate nonlinear functions. In this paper we compared the performances of different feed forward and recurrent neural networks and training algorithms for predicting the exchange rate EUR/RON and USD/RON. We used data series with daily exchange rates starting from 2005 until 2013.

  10. Koht, kust tagasi ei tulda / Mark Jenkins ; fotod Cory Richards

    Index Scriptorium Estoniae

    Jenkins, Mark

    2015-01-01

    National Geographicu ekspeditsiooni, mille koosseisu kuulusid Renan Ozturk, Mark Jenkins, Cory Richards, Emily Harrington ja Kilaree O'Neill, püüdlustest tõusta Kagu-Aasia kõrgeima mäe Hkakabo Razi tippu ning mõõta selle täpset kõrgust GPS-i abil

  11. Influenza forecasting with Google Flu Trends.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrea Freyer Dugas

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: We developed a practical influenza forecast model based on real-time, geographically focused, and easy to access data, designed to provide individual medical centers with advanced warning of the expected number of influenza cases, thus allowing for sufficient time to implement interventions. Secondly, we evaluated the effects of incorporating a real-time influenza surveillance system, Google Flu Trends, and meteorological and temporal information on forecast accuracy. METHODS: Forecast models designed to predict one week in advance were developed from weekly counts of confirmed influenza cases over seven seasons (2004-2011 divided into seven training and out-of-sample verification sets. Forecasting procedures using classical Box-Jenkins, generalized linear models (GLM, and generalized linear autoregressive moving average (GARMA methods were employed to develop the final model and assess the relative contribution of external variables such as, Google Flu Trends, meteorological data, and temporal information. RESULTS: A GARMA(3,0 forecast model with Negative Binomial distribution integrating Google Flu Trends information provided the most accurate influenza case predictions. The model, on the average, predicts weekly influenza cases during 7 out-of-sample outbreaks within 7 cases for 83% of estimates. Google Flu Trend data was the only source of external information to provide statistically significant forecast improvements over the base model in four of the seven out-of-sample verification sets. Overall, the p-value of adding this external information to the model is 0.0005. The other exogenous variables did not yield a statistically significant improvement in any of the verification sets. CONCLUSIONS: Integer-valued autoregression of influenza cases provides a strong base forecast model, which is enhanced by the addition of Google Flu Trends confirming the predictive capabilities of search query based syndromic surveillance. This

  12. Fuzzy Time Series: An Application to Tourism Demand Forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhammad H. Lee

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Problem statement: Forecasting is very important in many types of organizations since predictions of future events must be incorporated into the decision-making process. In the case of tourism demand, better forecast would help directors and investors make operational, tactical and strategic decisions. Besides that, government bodies need accurate tourism demand forecasts to plan required tourism infrastructures, such as accommodation site planning and transportation development, among other needs. There are many types of forecasting methods. Generally, time series forecasting can be divided into classical method and modern methods. Recent studies show that the newer and more advanced forecasting techniques tend to result in improved forecast accuracy, but no clear evidence shows that any one model can consistently outperform other models in the forecasting competition. Approach: In this study, the performance of forecasting between classical methods (Box-Jenkins methods Seasonal Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA, Holt Winters and time series regression and modern methods (fuzzy time series has been compared by using data of tourist arrivals to Bali and Soekarno-Hatta gate in Indonesia as case study. Results: The empirical results show that modern methods give more accurate forecasts compare to classical methods. Chens fuzzy time series method outperforms all the classical methods and others more advance fuzzy time series methods. We also found that the performance of fuzzy time series methods can be improve by using transformed data. Conclusion: It is found that the best method to forecast the tourist arrivals to Bali and Soekarno-Hatta was to be the FTS i.e., method after using data transformation. Although this method known to be the simplest or conventional methods of FTS, yet this result should not be odd since several previous studies also have shown that simple method could outperform more advance or complicated methods.

  13. Modeling for Growth and Forecasting of Pulse Production in Bangladesh

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Niaz Md. FarhatRahman

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available The present study was carried out to estimate growth pattern and examine the best ARIMA model to efficiently forecasting pigeon pea, chickpea and field pea pulse production in Bangladesh. It appeared that the time series data for pigeon pea, chickpea and field pea were 1st order homogenous stationary. Two types of models namely Box-Jenkins type Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA and deterministic type growth models, are examined to identify the best forecasting models for pigeon pea, chickpea and field pea pulse production in Bangladesh. The study revealed that the best models were ARIMA (1, 1 and 1, ARIMA (0, 1 and 0 and ARIMA (1, 1 and 3 for pigeon pea, chickpea and field pea pulse production, respectively. Among the deterministic type growth models, the cubic model is best for pigeon pea, chickpea and field pea pulse production. The analysis indicated that short-term forecasts were more efficient for ARIMA models compared to the deterministic models. The production uncertainty of pulse could be minimized if production were forecasted well and necessary steps were taken against losses. The findings of this study would be more useful for policy makers, researchers as well as producers in order to forecast future national pulse production more accurately in the short run.

  14. Development of golf tourism and golf tourism demand forecasts in Turkey: a study of Belek region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Murat Çuhadar

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Golf tourism has become one of the rapidly developing tourism types in Turkey, especially in the Belek region. In this study, detailed information about the development of golf tourism in Turkey from past to present was provided and golf tourism demand to Belek region which is a major golf tourism destinastion in the world and Turkey was modeled and forecasted monthly by Box-Jenkins methodology for the May 2013 –December 2014 period. As a measure of golf tourism demand, number of monthly golf games were taken in the study and the monthly number of golf game statistics of January 2001 – April 2013 in the golf establishments in Belek tourism center were used. By producing ex-ante forecasts it is aimed to create a basis for tourism development plans prepared by the management of private and public sector and to provide support for administrators’ monthly planning decisions.

  15. Influenza Forecasting with Google Flu Trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dugas, Andrea F.; Jalalpour, Mehdi; Gel, Yulia; Levin, Scott; Torcaso, Fred; Igusa, Takeru; Rothman, Richard

    2013-01-01

    Objective We sought to develop a practical influenza forecast model, based on real-time, geographically focused, and easy to access data, to provide individual medical centers with advanced warning of the number of influenza cases, thus allowing sufficient time to implement an intervention. Secondly, we evaluated how the addition of a real-time influenza surveillance system, Google Flu Trends, would impact the forecasting capabilities of this model. Introduction Each year, influenza results in increased Emergency Department crowding which can be mitigated through early detection linked to an appropriate response. Although current surveillance systems, such as Google Flu Trends, yield near real-time influenza surveillance, few demonstrate ability to forecast impending influenza cases. Methods Forecasting models designed to predict one week in advance were developed from weekly counts of confirmed influenza cases over seven seasons (2004 – 2011) divided into training and out-of-sample verification sets. Forecasting procedures using classical Box-Jenkins, generalized linear, and autoregressive methods were employed to develop the final model and assess the relative contribution of external variables such as, Google Flu Trends, meteorological data, and temporal information. Models were developed and evaluated through statistical measures of global deviance and log-likelihood ratio tests. An additional measure of forecast confidence, defined as the percentage of forecast values, during an influenza peak, that are within 7 influenza cases of the actual data, was examined to demonstrate practical utility of the model. Results A generalized autoregressive Poisson (GARMA) forecast model integrating previous influenza cases with Google Flu Trends information provided the most accurate influenza case predictions. Google Flu Trend data was the only source of external information providing significant forecast improvements (p = 0.00002). The final model, a GARMA intercept

  16. Jennifer Jenkins, English as a Lingua Franca: Attitude and Identity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marie-Françoise Narcy-Combes

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available En s’appuyant sur des recherches menées auprès d’enseignants d’anglais en Europe, en Asie et en Amérique Latine, Jennifer Jenkins étudie le lien entre les représentations des individus sur les langues et leur apprentissage et leur attitude face à l’enseignement de l’anglais comme langue véhiculaire internationale. C’est l’objet des trois premiers chapitres de l’ouvrage, qui explorent le décalage, d’une part, entre les représentations des individus sur la L2 et la réalité de celle-ci du point ...

  17. Jennifer Jenkins, English as a Lingua Franca: Attitude and Identity

    OpenAIRE

    Marie-Françoise Narcy-Combes

    2013-01-01

    En s’appuyant sur des recherches menées auprès d’enseignants d’anglais en Europe, en Asie et en Amérique Latine, Jennifer Jenkins étudie le lien entre les représentations des individus sur les langues et leur apprentissage et leur attitude face à l’enseignement de l’anglais comme langue véhiculaire internationale. C’est l’objet des trois premiers chapitres de l’ouvrage, qui explorent le décalage, d’une part, entre les représentations des individus sur la L2 et la réalité de celle-ci du point ...

  18. Forecasting of two main mango fruit fly pests in Mexico using time series models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Field samples in mango orchards growing in Actopan region of Veracruz, Mexico were taken weekly during a 79-week period to capture adults of two of the main fruit flies pests of mango (Mangifera indica L.) in tropical Mexico: Anastrepha obliqua (Macquart) and A. ludens (Loew) (Diptera: Tephritidae). The data were analysed using Time Series models according to the Box and Jenkins methodology to attempt predicting the behaviour of the pest populations as basic knowledge for integrated pest management. Flies captures were estimated by FTD (flies trap day) method = (number of flies captured x number of traps used)/ number of days of traps deployment). We used McPhail glass traps for the two different species of fruit flies captures during 79 weeks, each one representing the two time series used in this work. After running all the four main steps (identification, parameters estimation, verification and forecasting) indicated in the Box and Jenkins methodology to find the adequate time series models, the ARMA (1,2,2,1) and ARMA (2,1,0,1) models, both with a seasonal behaviour, fully fitted the field observed behavioural pattern for A. obliqua and A. ludens, respectively, and gave good predictions of its future values up to four weeks in advance. This information could help to take the management strategies in an opportune and accurately way when the fruit flies populations surpassing its innocuous level numbers. On the comparative predictions with other different mathematical models, the sixth deg.ree polynomial model was able to made good forecastings in the two series studied

  19. Comparison of forecasts of mean monthly water level in the Paraguay River, Brazil, from two fractionally differenced models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prass, Taiane S.; Bravo, Juan Martin; Clarke, Robin T.; Collischonn, Walter; Lopes, SíLvia R. C.

    2012-05-01

    The paper compares forecasts of mean monthly water levels up to six months ahead at Ladário, on the Upper Paraguay River, Brazil, estimated from two long-range dependence models. In one of them, the marked seasonal cycle was removed and a fractionally differenced model was fitted to the transformed series. In the other, a seasonal fractionally differenced model was fitted to water levels without transformation. Forecasts from both models for periods up to six months ahead were compared with forecasts given by simpler "short-range dependence" Box-Jenkins models, one fitted to the transformed series, the other a seasonal autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model. Estimates of parameters in the four models (two "long-range dependence", two "short-range dependence") were updated at six-monthly intervals over a 20 year period, and forecasts were compared using root mean square errors (rmse) between water-level forecasts and observed levels. As judged by rmse, performances of the two long-range dependence models, and of the ARMA (1,1) short-range dependence model, were very similar; all three out-performed the seasonal short-range dependence ARMA model. There was evidence that all models performed better during recession periods, than on the hydrograph rising limb.

  20. Short term forecasting of petroleum product demand in France

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The analysis of petroleum product demand became a privileged thrust of research following the modifications in terms of structure and level of the petroleum markets since eighties. The greatest importance to econometrics models of Energy demand, joint works about nonstationary data, explained the development of error-correction models and the co-integration. In this context, the short term econometrics modelling of petroleum product demand does not only focus on forecasts but also on the measure of the gain acquired from using error-correction techniques and co-integration. It's filling to take the influence of technical improvement and environment pressures into account in econometrics modelling of petroleum products demand. The first part presents the evolution of Energy Demand in France and more particularly the petroleum product demand since 1986. The objective is to determine the main characteristics of each product, which will help us to analyse and validate the econometrics models. The second part focus on the recent developments in times series modelling. We study the problem of nonstationary data and expose different unit root tests. We examine the main approaches to univariate and multivariate modelling with nonstationary data and distinguish the forecasts of the latter's. The third part is intended to applications; its objective is to illustrate the theoretic developments of the second part with a comparison between the performances of different approaches (approach Box and Jenkins, Johansen approach's and structural approach). The models will be applied to the main French petroleum market. The observed asymmetrical demand behaviour is also considered. (author)

  1. Forecasting Peak Load Electricity Demand Using Statistics and Rule Based Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Z. Ismail

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Problem statement: Forecasting of electricity load demand is an essential activity and an important function in power system planning and development. It is a prerequisite to power system expansion planning as the world of electricity is dominated by substantial lead times between decision making and its implementation. The importance of demand forecasting needs to be emphasized at all level as the consequences of under or over forecasting the demand are serious and will affect all stakeholders in the electricity supply industry. Approach: If under estimated, the result is serious since plant installation cannot easily be advanced, this will affect the economy, business, loss of time and image. If over estimated, the financial penalty for excess capacity (i.e., over-estimated and wasting of resources. Therefore this study aimed to develop new forecasting model for forecasting electricity load demand which will minimize the error of forecasting. In this study, we explored the development of rule-based method for forecasting electricity peak load demand. The rule-based system synergized human reasoning style of fuzzy systems through the use of set of rules consisting of IF-THEN approximators with the learning and connectionist structure. Prior to the implementation of rule-based models, SARIMAT model and Regression time series were used. Results: Modification of the basic regression model and modeled it using Box-Jenkins auto regressive error had produced a satisfactory and adequate model with 2.41% forecasting error. With rule-based based forecasting, one can apply forecaster expertise and domain knowledge that is appropriate to the conditions of time series. Conclusion: This study showed a significant improvement in forecast accuracy when compared with the traditional time series model. Good domain knowledge of the experts had contributed to the increase in forecast accuracy. In general, the improvement will depend on the conditions of the data

  2. ARIMA MODEL BUILDING AND FORECASTING ON IMPORTS AND EXPORTS OF PAKISTAN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmad Farooqi

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available From the day one, mankind has always been interested in to the future. As the civilization advanced with growing sophistication in all phases of life, the need to look in to the future also grew with it. Today every government, public private organizations, as well as an individual would like to predict and plan for the future. In order to attain a better growth in the economy of a country, modeling and forecasting is the most important tool now a day, this can be done by one of the statistical technique called a Time series analysis. In this paper we tried to build a time series model called ARIMA (Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average model with particular reference of Box and Jenkins approach on annually total Imports and Exports of Pakistan from the year 1947 to the year 2013 with useful statistical software R. Validity of the fitted model is tested using standard statistical techniques. The fitted model is then use to forecast some future values of Imports and export of Pakistan. It is found that an ARIMA (2, 2, 2 and ARIMA (1, 2, 2 model looks suitable to forecast the annual Imports and Exports of Pakistan respectively. We also found an increasing trend both in case of Imports and Exports during this study.

  3. Category Learning in Rhesus Monkeys: A Study of the Shepard, Hovland, and Jenkins (1961) Tasks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, J. David; Minda, John Paul; Washburn, David A.

    2004-01-01

    In influential research, R. N. Shepard, C. I. Hovland, and H. M. Jenkins (1961) surveyed humans' categorization abilities using tasks based in rules, exclusive-or (XOR) relations, and exemplar memorization. Humans' performance was poorly predicted by cue-conditioning or stimulus-generalization theories, causing Shepard et al. to describe it in…

  4. Human Learning of Elemental Category Structures: Revising the Classic Result of Shepard, Hovland, and Jenkins (1961)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kurtz, Kenneth J.; Levering, Kimery R.; Stanton, Roger D.; Romero, Joshua; Morris, Steven N.

    2013-01-01

    The findings of Shepard, Hovland, and Jenkins (1961) on the relative ease of learning 6 elemental types of 2-way classifications have been deeply influential 2 times over: 1st, as a rebuke to pure stimulus generalization accounts, and again as the leading benchmark for evaluating formal models of human category learning. The litmus test for models…

  5. Jenkins Model Based Ferrofluid Lubrication of a Curved Rough Annular Squeeze Film with Slip Velocity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J.R. Patel

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper deals with the combined effect of roughness and slip velocity on the performance of a Jenkins model based ferrofluid squeeze film in curved annular plates. Beavers and Joseph’s slip model has been adopted to incorporate the effect of slip velocity. The stochastic model of Christensen and Tonder has been deployed to evaluate the effect of surface roughness. The associated stochastically averaged Reynolds type equation is solved to derive the pressure distribution, leading to the calculation of load carrying capacity. The graphical representation makes it clear that although, the effect of transverse surface roughness is adverse in general, Jenkins model based ferrofluid lubrication provides some measures in mitigating the adverse effect and this becomes more manifest when the slip parameter is reduced and negatively skewed roughness occurs. Of course, a judicious choice of curvature parameters and variance (-ve add to this positive effect.

  6. Forecasting international tourism demand from the US, Japan and South Korea to Malaysia: A SARIMA approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borhan, Nurbaizura; Arsad, Zainudin

    2014-07-01

    One of the major contributing sectors for Malaysia's economic growth is tourism. The number of international tourist arrivals to Malaysia has been showing an upward trend as a result of several programs and promotion introduced by the Malaysian government to attract international tourists to the country. This study attempts to model and to forecast tourism demand for Malaysia by three selected countries: the US, Japan and South Korea. This study utilized monthly time series data for the period from January 1999 to December 2012 and employed the well-known Box-Jenkins seasonal ARIMA modeling procedures. Not surprisingly the results show the number of tourist arrivals from the three countries contain strong seasonal component as the arrivals strongly dependent on the season in the country of origin. The findings of the study also show that the number of tourist arrivals from the US and South Korea will continue to increase in the near future. Meanwhile the arrivals from Japan is forecasted to show a drop in the near future and as such tourism authorities in Malaysia need to enhance the promotional effort to attract more tourists from Japan to visit Malaysia.

  7. Forecasting peak ozone levels

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Simpson, R.W.; Layton, A.P.

    1983-01-01

    Box-Jenkins (1970) time series models are used to predict peak afternoon O3 levels. Data sets from three monitoring stations in Brisbane, Queensland, Australia, are used in the analysis, one of the stations being inner-city and the others being outer-city. It is found that univariate models using only the peak O3 data-set at a site to predict future peak O3 levels are unsatisfactory. However bivariate models using peak O3 data from one site to predict peak O3 levels at another site yield good results. However it is clear that these results only arise because the O3 is formed in a well mixed layer over the region leading to a high degree of correlation between O3 peaks throughout the region. 15 references.

  8. Jenkins model based ferrofluid lubrication of a curved rough annular squeeze film: Effect of slip velocity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patel Jimit R.

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper analyzes the combined effect of slip velocity and transverse roughness on the performance of a Jenkins model based ferrofluid lubrication of a squeeze film in curved rough annular plates. The slip model of Beavers and Joseph has been invoked to evaluate the effect of slip velocity. In order to find the effect of surface roughness the stochastic averaging model of Christensen and Tonder has been used. The pressure distribution is obtained by solving the concerned stochastically averaged Reynolds type equation. The load carrying capacity is calculated. The graphical representations of the results indicate that the effect of transverse surface roughness is adverse in general, however, the situation is relatively better in the case of negatively skewed roughness. Further, Jenkins model based ferrofluid lubrication offers some measures in reducing the adverse effect of roughness when slip parameter is kept at reduced level with a suitable ratio of curvature parameters. Lastly, the positive effect of magnetization gets a boost due to the combined effect of variance (-ve and negatively skewed roughness suitably choosing the aspect ratio.

  9. Category learning in older adulthood: A study of the Shepard, Hovland, and Jenkins (1961) tasks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rabi, Rahel; Minda, John Paul

    2016-03-01

    Shepard, Hovland, and Jenkins (1961) examined the categorization abilities of younger adults using tasks involving single-dimensional rule learning, disjunctive rule learning, and family resemblance learning. The current study examined category learning in older adults using this well-known category set. Older adults, like younger adults, found category tasks with a single relevant dimension the easiest to learn. In contrast to younger adults, older adults found complex disjunctive rule-based categories harder to learn than family resemblance based categories. Disjunctive rule-based category learning appeared to be the most difficult for older adults to learn because this category set placed the heaviest demands on working memory, which is known to be a cognitive function that declines with normal aging. The authors discuss why complex rule-based category learning is considered more difficult for older adults to learn relative to younger adults, drawing parallels to developmental research. (PsycINFO Database Record PMID:26765750

  10. Forecasting forecast skill

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalnay, Eugenia; Dalcher, Amnon

    1987-01-01

    It is shown that it is possible to predict the skill of numerical weather forecasts - a quantity which is variable from day to day and region to region. This has been accomplished using as predictor the dispersion (measured by the average correlation) between members of an ensemble of forecasts started from five different analyses. The analyses had been previously derived for satellite-data-impact studies and included, in the Northern Hemisphere, moderate perturbations associated with the use of different observing systems. When the Northern Hemisphere was used as a verification region, the prediction of skill was rather poor. This is due to the fact that such a large area usually contains regions with excellent forecasts as well as regions with poor forecasts, and does not allow for discrimination between them. However, when regional verifications were used, the ensemble forecast dispersion provided a very good prediction of the quality of the individual forecasts.

  11. Einstein's Boxes

    CERN Document Server

    Norsen, T

    2005-01-01

    At the 1927 Solvay conference, Einstein presented a thought experiment intended to demonstrate the incompleteness of the quantum mechanical description of reality. In the following years, the thought experiment was picked up and modified by Einstein, de Broglie, and several other commentators into a simple scenario involving the splitting in half of the wave function of a single particle in a box. In this paper we collect together several formulations of this thought experiment from the existing literature; analyze and assess it from the point of view of the Einstein-Bohr debates, the EPR dilemma, and Bell's theorem; and generally lobby for Einstein's Boxes taking its rightful place alongside similar but historically better-known quantum mechanical thought experiments such as EPR and Schroedinger's Cat.

  12. Einstein's Boxes

    OpenAIRE

    Norsen, Travis

    2004-01-01

    At the 1927 Solvay conference, Einstein presented a thought experiment intended to demonstrate the incompleteness of the quantum mechanical description of reality. In the following years, the thought experiment was picked up and modified by Einstein, de Broglie, and several other commentators into a simple scenario involving the splitting in half of the wave function of a single particle in a box. In this paper we collect together several formulations of this thought experiment from the exist...

  13. The Careful Puppet Master: Reducing risk and fortifying acceptance testing with Jenkins CI

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Jason A.; Richman, Gabriel; DeStefano, John; Pryor, James; Rao, Tejas; Strecker-Kellogg, William; Wong, Tony

    2015-12-01

    Centralized configuration management, including the use of automation tools such as Puppet, can greatly increase provisioning speed and efficiency when configuring new systems or making changes to existing systems, reduce duplication of work, and improve automated processes. However, centralized management also brings with it a level of inherent risk: a single change in just one file can quickly be pushed out to thousands of computers and, if that change is not properly and thoroughly tested and contains an error, could result in catastrophic damage to many services, potentially bringing an entire computer facility offline. Change management procedures can—and should—be formalized in order to prevent such accidents. However, like the configuration management process itself, if such procedures are not automated, they can be difficult to enforce strictly. Therefore, to reduce the risk of merging potentially harmful changes into our production Puppet environment, we have created an automated testing system, which includes the Jenkins CI tool, to manage our Puppet testing process. This system includes the proposed changes and runs Puppet on a pool of dozens of RedHat Enterprise Virtualization (RHEV) virtual machines (VMs) that replicate most of our important production services for the purpose of testing. This paper describes our automated test system and how it hooks into our production approval process for automatic acceptance testing. All pending changes that have been pushed to production must pass this validation process before they can be approved and merged into production.

  14. Time Series Forecasting by using Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average: Subset, Multiplicative or Additive Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Suhartono

    2011-01-01

    and additive SARIMA models gave more accurate forecasted values at out-sample datasets than multiplicative SARIMA model for airline and tourist arrivals datasets respectively. This study is valuable contribution to the Box-Jenkins procedure particularly at the model identification and estimation steps in SARIMA model. Further work involving multiple seasonal ARIMA models, such as short term load data forecasting in certain countries, may provide further insights regarding the subset, multiplicative or additive orders.

  15. Forecasting Labour Productivity Growth in Norway for the Period 2012-2021 Using ARIMA Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pirooz Samavati

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available There appeared to be a change in labour productivity growth in Norway (a fall in the growth rate in the middle of the 2000s, followed by a slight recovery at the end of the period under consideration (1971-2011. The 2007-2009 financial and economic crisis in Norway (which resulted from the banking crisis caused an even greater drop in labour productivity growth to the extent that it in 2008 it reached its lowest point over the last three decades. After 2008, labour productivity growth started to increase. In this paper, in order to forecast time-series labour productivity growth in Norway for the period 2012-2021, the ARIMA model is fitted to Norwegian time-series labour productivity growth data obtained in the period 1971-2011. Using the Box-Jenkins model selection methodology, ARIMA (1, 1, 1 with no constant is selected as an appropriate model. As the selected ARIMA model indicates, labour productivity growth in Norway shall continue to increase very slowly and will ultimately reach a non-zero constant in the forecast period (2012-2021 following its recovery after 2008. Long-term forecasts for time-series labour productivity growth in Norway using ARIMA (1, 1, 1 with no constant will also reach a non-zero constant. Initially, it might be concluded that slow technological development as a result of the 2007-2009 financial and economic crisis could explain the slowdown in the recovery of labour productivity growth both in the forecast period (2012-2021 and over the longer term. However, due to the fact that the 2007-2009 financial and economic crisis has changed the underlying process which Norwegian labour productivity growth rate followed in the immediately preceding period, and that a technological revolution, which can be considered as a contributing factor, also took place in that period, it seems unlikely that a single labour productivity growth time series will be rich enough to describe the variation in the data. From the data and the

  16. Distribution and habitat of the Laotian Rock Rat Laonastes aenigmamus Jenkins, Kilpatrick, Robinson & Timmins, 2005 (Rodentia: Diatomyidae) in Vietnam

    OpenAIRE

    Nguyen, Dang; Nguyen, Nghia; Nguyen, Duy; Dinh,Tri; Le,Dinh; Duong,Dinh

    2014-01-01

    The Laotian Rock Rat Laonastes aenigmamus Jenkins, Kilpatrick, Robinson & Timmins, 2005 was originally discovered in Lao People's Democratic Republic in 2005. This species has been recognized as the sole surviving member of the otherwise extinct rodent family Diatomyidae. Laonastes aenigmamus was initially reported only in limestone forests of Khammouane Province, Central Lao. A second population was recently discovered in Phong Nha Ke Bang National Park (PNKB NP), Quang Binh Province, Centra...

  17. Forecasting and Time Series Analysis of Air Pollutants in Several Area of Malaysia

    OpenAIRE

    Mohd Z. Ibrahim; Roziah Zailan; Marzuki Ismail; Muhd S. Lola

    2009-01-01

    Problem statement: In keeping abreast with Malaysias rapid economic development and to meet the nation's aspiration for an improved quality of life, clean-air legislation limiting industrial and automobile emissions was adopted in 1978. Approach: Yet, to this day, air pollution from both sources still poses a problem for the nation. In order to predict the status of future air quality in Malaysia, a Box-Jenkins ARIMA approach was applied to modeling the time series of monthly maximum 1 h carb...

  18. Short term forecasting of petroleum product demand in France; Modelisation a court terme des consommations de produits petroliers en France

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cadren, M

    1998-06-23

    The analysis of petroleum product demand became a privileged thrust of research following the modifications in terms of structure and level of the petroleum markets since eighties. The greatest importance to econometrics models of Energy demand, joint works about nonstationary data, explained the development of error-correction models and the co-integration. In this context, the short term econometrics modelling of petroleum product demand does not only focus on forecasts but also on the measure of the gain acquired from using error-correction techniques and co-integration. It`s filling to take the influence of technical improvement and environment pressures into account in econometrics modelling of petroleum products demand. The first part presents the evolution of Energy Demand in France and more particularly the petroleum product demand since 1986. The objective is to determine the main characteristics of each product, which will help us to analyse and validate the econometrics models. The second part focus on the recent developments in times series modelling. We study the problem of nonstationary data and expose different unit root tests. We examine the main approaches to univariate and multivariate modelling with nonstationary data and distinguish the forecasts of the latter`s. The third part is intended to applications; its objective is to illustrate the theoretic developments of the second part with a comparison between the performances of different approaches (approach Box and Jenkins, Johansen approach`s and structural approach). The models will be applied to the main French petroleum market. The observed asymmetrical demand behaviour is also considered. (author) 153 refs.

  19. Cash Flow Prediction Using a Grey-Box Model

    OpenAIRE

    Pang, Yang; Opong, Kwaku; Moutinho, Luia; Li, Yun

    2015-01-01

    This paper tackles the problem of financial forecasting by extending methods developed in automation, engineering and computing science. Current methods existing in the literature for firm-level cash flows are first analysed. Then a grey-box modelling method is developed to elevate the performance of cash-flow prediction. Linear panel data modelling is used as a benchmark model. Experiments with out-of-sample tests are used to validate the grey-box approach. Encouragingly, nonlinear grey-box ...

  20. Forecast Forecasts the Trend

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Wang Ting

    2009-01-01

    @@ The latest release of "2009 China Luxury Forecast" shows that while the financial crisis is leading a general decline in demand for luxury brands in Europe,America and Japan,the global economic downturn has had limited impact on Chinese luxury consumption and that there is widespread confidence in the future among Chinese luxury consumers.

  1. Forecast Forecasts the Trend

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2009-01-01

    The latest release of "2009 China Luxury Forecast" shows that while the financial crisis is leading a general decline in demand for luxury brands in Europe,America and Japan,the global economic downturn has had limited impact on Chinese luxury consumption and that there is widespread confidence in the future among Chinese luxury consumers.

  2. Defensive forecasting

    OpenAIRE

    Vovk, Vladimir; Takemura, Akimichi; Shafer, Glenn

    2005-01-01

    We consider how to make probability forecasts of binary labels. Our main mathematical result is that for any continuous gambling strategy used for detecting disagreement between the forecasts and the actual labels, there exists a forecasting strategy whose forecasts are ideal as far as this gambling strategy is concerned. A forecasting strategy obtained in this way from a gambling strategy demonstrating a strong law of large numbers is simplified and studied empirically.

  3. Laryngeal (Voice Box) Cancer

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Meeting Calendar Find an ENT Doctor Near You Voice Box (Laryngeal) Cancer Voice Box (Laryngeal) Cancer Patient Health Information News media ... laryngeal cancer can be severe with respect to voice, breathing, or swallowing. It is fundamentally a preventable ...

  4. Forecasting trade

    OpenAIRE

    Keck, Alexander; Raubold, Alexander

    2006-01-01

    This paper develops a set of time series models to provide short-term forecasts (6 to 18 months ahead) of international trade both at the global level and for selected regions. Our results compare favourably to other forecasts, notably by the International Monetary Fund, as measured by standard evaluation measures, such as the root mean square forecast error. In comparison to other models, our approach offers several methodological advantages, inter alia, a focus on import growth as the core ...

  5. Load forecasting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Slides used in a presentation at The Power of Change Conference in Vancouver, BC in April 1995 about the changing needs for load forecasting were presented. Technological innovations and population increase were said to be the prime driving forces behind the changing needs in load forecasting. Structural changes, market place changes, electricity supply planning changes, and changes in planning objectives were other factors discussed. It was concluded that load forecasting was a form of information gathering, that provided important market intelligence

  6. Forecasting volatility

    OpenAIRE

    Ederington, Louis H; Wei Guan

    2005-01-01

    The forecasting ability of the most popular volatility forecasting models is examined and an alternative model developed. Existing models are compared in terms of four attributes: (1) the relative weighting of recent versus older observations, (2) the estimation criterion, (3) the trade‐off in terms of out‐of‐sample forecasting error between simple and complex models, and (4) the emphasis placed on large shocks. As in previous studies, we find that financial markets have longer memories than ...

  7. Evolving time series forecasting ARMA models

    OpenAIRE

    Cortez, Paulo; Rocha, Miguel

    2004-01-01

    Nowadays, the ability to forecast the future, based only on past data, leads to strategic advantages, which may be the key to success in organizations. Time Series Forecasting (TSF) allows the modeling of complex systems as ``black-boxes'', being a focus of attention in several research arenas such as Operational Research, Statistics or Computer Science. Alternative TSF approaches emerged from the Artificial Intelligence arena, where optimization algorithms inspired on natural selection pr...

  8. Time series analysis of dengue incidence in Guadeloupe, French West Indies: Forecasting models using climate variables as predictors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ruche Guy

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background During the last decades, dengue viruses have spread throughout the Americas region, with an increase in the number of severe forms of dengue. The surveillance system in Guadeloupe (French West Indies is currently operational for the detection of early outbreaks of dengue. The goal of the study was to improve this surveillance system by assessing a modelling tool to predict the occurrence of dengue epidemics few months ahead and thus to help an efficient dengue control. Methods The Box-Jenkins approach allowed us to fit a Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA model of dengue incidence from 2000 to 2006 using clinical suspected cases. Then, this model was used for calculating dengue incidence for the year 2007 compared with observed data, using three different approaches: 1 year-ahead, 3 months-ahead and 1 month-ahead. Finally, we assessed the impact of meteorological variables (rainfall, temperature and relative humidity on the prediction of dengue incidence and outbreaks, incorporating them in the model fitting the best. Results The 3 months-ahead approach was the most appropriate for an effective and operational public health response, and the most accurate (Root Mean Square Error, RMSE = 0.85. Relative humidity at lag-7 weeks, minimum temperature at lag-5 weeks and average temperature at lag-11 weeks were variables the most positively correlated to dengue incidence in Guadeloupe, meanwhile rainfall was not. The predictive power of SARIMA models was enhanced by the inclusion of climatic variables as external regressors to forecast the year 2007. Temperature significantly affected the model for better dengue incidence forecasting (p-value = 0.03 for minimum temperature lag-5, p-value = 0.02 for average temperature lag-11 but not humidity. Minimum temperature at lag-5 weeks was the best climatic variable for predicting dengue outbreaks (RMSE = 0.72. Conclusion Temperature improves dengue outbreaks forecasts

  9. Podpora pro užití jazyka Python pro vývoj zásuvných modulů serveru Jenkins

    OpenAIRE

    Bambas, Tomáš

    2014-01-01

    Server pro průběžnou integraci Jenkins CI umožňuje rozšiřovat svou funkcionalitu pomocí zásuvných modulů. Tyto moduly lze programovat v jazycích Java a Ruby. Podpora pro jazyk Python chybí, přestože se jedná o jeden z nejpopulárnějších programovacích jazyků současnosti. Implementovali jsme proto vývojářské nástroje, které umožňují programovat moduly v jazyce Python a tyto nástroje jsme začlenili do projektu Jenkins CI. K nástrojům byla zveřejněna uživatelská dokumentace. Programátoři mohou te...

  10. Exposure Forecaster

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — The Exposure Forecaster Database (ExpoCastDB) is EPA's database for aggregating chemical exposure information and can be used to help with chemical exposure...

  11. Forecasting metal prices: Do forecasters herd?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pierdzioch, C.; Rulke, J. C.; Stadtmann, G.

    2013-01-01

    We analyze more than 20,000 forecasts of nine metal prices at four different forecast horizons. We document that forecasts are heterogeneous and report that anti-herding appears to be a source of this heterogeneity. Forecaster anti-herding reflects strategic interactions among forecasters that fo...... foster incentives to scatter forecasts around a consensus forecast. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved....

  12. Shaping 3-D boxes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stenholt, Rasmus; Madsen, Claus B.

    2011-01-01

    Enabling users to shape 3-D boxes in immersive virtual environments is a non-trivial problem. In this paper, a new family of techniques for creating rectangular boxes of arbitrary position, orientation, and size is presented and evaluated. These new techniques are based solely on position data...

  13. Probabilistic Forecasting for On-line Operation of Urban Drainage Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Löwe, Roland

    This thesis deals with the generation of probabilistic forecasts in urban hydrology. In particular, we focus on the case of runoff forecasting for real-time control (RTC) on horizons of up to two hours. For the generation of probabilistic on-line runoff forecasts, we apply the stochastic grey-box...

  14. Distribution and habitat of the Laotian Rock Rat Laonastesaenigmamus Jenkins, Kilpatrick, Robinson & Timmins, 2005 (Rodentia: Diatomyidae) in Vietnam.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nguyen, Dang Xuan; Nguyen, Nghia Xuan; Nguyen, Duy Dinh; Dinh, Tri Huy; Le, Dinh Thuc; Dinh, Duong Hai

    2014-01-01

    The Laotian Rock Rat Laonastesaenigmamus Jenkins, Kilpatrick, Robinson & Timmins, 2005 was originally discovered in Lao People's Democratic Republic in 2005. This species has been recognized as the sole surviving member of the otherwise extinct rodent family Diatomyidae. Laonastesaenigmamus was initially reported only in limestone forests of Khammouane Province, Central Lao. A second population was recently discovered in Phong Nha Ke Bang National Park (PNKB NP), Quang Binh Province, Central Vietnam in 2011. The confirmed distribution range of L.aenigmamus in Vietnam is very small, approximately 150 km(2), covering low karst mountains in five communes of Minh Hoa District, Quang Binh Province, at elevations between 250 and 400 m asl. The Laotian Rock Rat inhabits the lower part of steep karst towers with many rock boulders and crevices under tall limestone evergreen forest. They use small rock crevices for their dens. The natural habitat of this species in PNKB NP has been affected by selected timber harvesting, however, a complex 3-4 layer forest structure is retained. The Laotian Rock Rat is omnivorous, feeding on parts (leaves, buds, fruits and roots) of 18 plant species and also some insects (cicada, mantis, grasshopper). The population of this species in PNKB NP is seriously threatened with extinction due to its very restricted distribution, high hunting pressure, and habitat disturbance. Laonastesaenigmamus is listed in the IUCN Red List as endangered and in the Wildlife and Aquatic Red List of Lao, however, this species has not been listed in the Red Data Book or any conservation legislative documents of Vietnam. PMID:25589873

  15. Distribution and habitat of the Laotian Rock Rat Laonastes aenigmamus Jenkins, Kilpatrick, Robinson & Timmins, 2005 (Rodentia: Diatomyidae in Vietnam

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dang Nguyen

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The Laotian Rock Rat Laonastes aenigmamus Jenkins, Kilpatrick, Robinson & Timmins, 2005 was originally discovered in Lao People's Democratic Republic in 2005. This species has been recognized as the sole surviving member of the otherwise extinct rodent family Diatomyidae. Laonastes aenigmamus was initially reported only in limestone forests of Khammouane Province, Central Lao. A second population was recently discovered in Phong Nha Ke Bang National Park (PNKB NP, Quang Binh Province, Central Vietnam in 2011. The confirmed distribution range of L. aenigmamus in Vietnam is very small, approximately 150 km2, covering low karst mountains in five communes of Minh Hoa District, Quang Binh Province, at elevations between 250 and 400 m asl. The Laotian Rock Rat inhabits the lower part of steep karst towers with many rock boulders and crevices under tall limestone evergreen forest. They use small rock crevices for their dens. The natural habitat of this species in PNKB NP has been affected by selected timber harvesting, however, a complex 3-4 layer forest structure is retained. The Laotian Rock Rat is omnivorous, feeding on parts (leaves, buds, fruits and roots of 18 plant species and also some insects (cicada, mantis, grasshopper. The population of this species in PNKB NP is seriously threatened with extinction due to its very restricted distribution, high hunting pressure, and habitat disturbance. Laonastes aenigmamus is listed in the IUCN Red List as endangered and in the Wildlife and Aquatic Red List of Lao, however, this species has not been listed in the Red Data Book or any conservation legislative documents of Vietnam.

  16. Reasonable Forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, Kelley R.

    2010-01-01

    This article presents a sample legal battle that illustrates school officials' "reasonable forecasts" of substantial disruption in the school environment. In 2006, two students from a Texas high school came to school carrying purses decorated with images of the Confederate flag. The school district has a zero-tolerance policy for clothing or…

  17. The Maine Music Box

    OpenAIRE

    Lutz, Marilyn; Gallucci, Laura

    2005-01-01

    The paper describes the Maine Music Box and examines its potential as a tool for teaching and learning music. Pedagogical concepts are demonstrated using MIDI, Scorch, image and streaming video files.

  18. Voice box (image)

    Science.gov (United States)

    The larynx, or voice box, is located in the neck and performs several important functions in the body. The larynx is involved in swallowing, breathing, and voice production. Sound is produced when the air which ...

  19. The BOXES Methodology Black Box Dynamic Control

    CERN Document Server

    Russell, David W

    2012-01-01

    Robust control mechanisms customarily require knowledge of the system’s describing equations which may be of the high order differential type.  In order to produce these equations, mathematical models can often be derived and correlated with measured dynamic behavior.  There are two flaws in this approach one is the level of inexactness introduced by linearizations and the other when no model is apparent.  Several years ago a new genre of control systems came to light that are much less dependent on differential models such as fuzzy logic and genetic algorithms. Both of these soft computing solutions require quite considerable a priori system knowledge to create a control scheme and sometimes complicated training program before they can be implemented in a real world dynamic system. Michie and Chambers’ BOXES methodology created a black box system that was designed to control a mechanically unstable system with very little a priori system knowledge, linearization or approximation.  All the method need...

  20. Electricity consumption forecasting using singular spectrum analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Moisés Lima de Menezes

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available El Análisis Espectral Singular (AES es una técnica no paramétrica que permite la descomposición de una serie de tiempo en una componente de señal y otra de ruido. De este modo, AES es una técnica útil para la extracción de la tendencia, la suavización y el filtro una serie de tiempo. En este artículo se investiga el efecto sobre el desempeño los modelos de Holt-Winters y de Box & Jenkins al ser aplicados a una serie de tiempo filtrada por AES. Tres diferentes metodologías son evaluadas con el enfoque de AES: Análisis de Componentes Principales (ACP, análisis de conglomerados y análisis gráfico de vectores singulares. Con el fin de ilustrar y comparar dichas metodologías, en este trabajo también se presentaron los principales resultados de un experimento computacional para el consumo residencial mensual de electricidad en Brasil.

  1. Combined Effect of Slip Velocity and Roughness on the Jenkins Model Based Ferrofluid Lubrication of a Curved Rough Annular Squeeze Film

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    JIMITKUMAR PATEL

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper theoretically analyzes the combined effect of slip velocity and surface roughness on the performance of Jenkins model based ferrofluid squeeze film in curved annular plates. The effect of slip velocity has been studied resorting to the slip model of Beavers and Joseph. The stochastically averaging method of Christensen and Tonders has been deployed for studying the effect of surface roughness. The pressure distribution is derived by solving the associated stochastically averaged Reynolds type equation with suitable boundary conditions, leading to the computation of load carrying capacity. The graphical representations reveal that the transverse surface roughness adversely affects the bearing performance. However, Jenkins model based ferrofluid lubrication offers some scopes in minimizing this adverse effect when the slip parameter is kept at minimum. Of course, an appropriate choice of curvature parameters adds to this positive effect in the case of negatively skewed roughness. Moreover, it is established that this type of bearing system supports certain amount of load; even when there is no flow which does not happen in the case of conventional lubricant based bearing system.

  2. Opto-Box

    CERN Document Server

    Bertsche, David; The ATLAS collaboration; Welch, Steven; Smith, Dale Shane; Che, Siinn; Gan, K.K.; Boyd, George Russell Jr

    2015-01-01

    The opto-box is a custom mini-crate for housing optical modules, which process and transfer optoelectronic data. The system tightly integrates electrical, mechanical, and thermal functionality into a small package of size 35x10x8 cm^3. Special attention was given to ensure proper shielding, grounding, cooling, high reliability, and environmental tolerance. The custom modules, which incorporate Application Specific Integrated Circuits (ASICs), were developed through a cycle of rigorous testing and redesign. In total, fourteen opto-boxes have been installed and loaded with modules on the ATLAS detector. They are currently in operation as part of the LHC run 2 data read-out chain.

  3. Teaching with Box Tops.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raiser, Lynne; D'Zamko, Mary Elizabeth

    1984-01-01

    Using environmental materials (such as the phone book and placemats from fast food restaurants) can be a motivating way to teach learning disabled students skills and concepts, as shown in an approach to reading, math, science and nutrition, and social studies instruction using a JELL-O brand gelatin box. (CL)

  4. Hydrophobic, Porous Battery Boxes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bragg, Bobby J.; Casey, John E., Jr.

    1995-01-01

    Boxes made of porous, hydrophobic polymers developed to contain aqueous potassium hydroxide electrolyte solutions of zinc/air batteries while allowing air to diffuse in as needed for operation. Used on other types of batteries for in-cabin use in which electrolytes aqueous and from which gases generated during operation must be vented without allowing electrolytes to leak out.

  5. Glove box posting system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A system for posting objects into closed containers, such as glove boxes, is described in which the bag used, preferably made of plastic, does not have to be fitted and sealed by the operator during each posting operation. (U.K.)

  6. Cereal Box Totems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, AnnMarie

    2002-01-01

    Presents a multicultural project used with fourth-grade students in which they created a three-dimensional totem pole using leftover cereal boxes. Discusses in detail how to create the totem pole. Explains that students learned about Northwest American Indians in class. (CMK)

  7. PHOTOCHEMICAL BOX MODEL (PBM)

    Science.gov (United States)

    This magnetic tape contains the FORTRAN source code, sample input data, and sample output data for the Photochemical Box Model (PBM). The PBM is a simple stationary single-cell model with a variable height lid designed to provide volume-integrated hour averages of O3 and other ph...

  8. ksoa Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  9. kblf Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  10. ksav Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  11. ksun Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  12. kduj Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  13. kavl Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  14. pawg Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  15. kssi Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  16. khqm Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  17. kpdx Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  18. kdal Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  19. kfpr Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  20. klbe Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  1. ktop Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  2. kpbi Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  3. kmiv Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  4. klmt Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  5. kgso Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  6. kwwr Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  7. kpdt Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  8. kolm Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  9. kalb Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  10. ptya Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  11. tjmz Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  12. kpia Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  13. ksns Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  14. kdag Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  15. kdrt Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  16. kdfw Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  17. klfk Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  18. kbbg Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  19. kmmh Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  20. kyng Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  1. kasn Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  2. kaoo Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  3. kmbs Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  4. kcrp Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  5. kacy Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  6. khro Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  7. krst Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  8. kyip Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  9. kilm Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  10. krwi Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  11. kctb Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  12. kjfk Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  13. kric Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  14. ktmb Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  15. korf Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  16. kmht Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  17. kcou Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  18. kosh Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  19. krdg Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  20. khut Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  1. paho Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  2. kbfl Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  3. kcsm Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  4. kdmn Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  5. kglh Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  6. ksjt Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  7. kmbg Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

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  18. kbgm Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  19. pgwt Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  20. kabi Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  1. kmsn Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  2. ksln Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  3. kttd Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  4. ksbp Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  5. kopf Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  6. ksmn Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  7. krdm Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  8. kcon Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  9. kfmy Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  10. kmgw Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  11. krwf Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  12. pata Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  13. kont Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  14. kdec Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  15. kiah Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  16. kbna Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  17. kbmi Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  18. kbkw Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  19. kgmu Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  20. kloz Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  1. kcsv Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  2. kofk Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  3. kftw Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  4. kdug Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  5. ksgr Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  6. kfxe Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  7. kshr Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  8. kekn Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  9. kgwo Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  10. kcha Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  11. kpvd Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  12. pabe Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  13. kbtv Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  14. ksan Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  15. phto Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  16. ksmx Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  17. ksdy Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  18. kase Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  19. kaex Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  20. kavp Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  1. kvis Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  2. koxr Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  3. koma Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  4. knew Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  5. ksez Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  6. kphf Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  7. papg Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  8. ksck Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  9. kstj Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  10. khie Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  11. pasn Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  12. kipt Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  13. khlg Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  14. krut Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  15. kpie Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  16. pkmj Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  17. ksff Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  18. Forecast Mekong

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turnipseed, D. Phil

    2011-01-01

    Forecast Mekong is part of the U.S. Department of State's Lower Mekong Initiative, which was launched in 2009 by Secretary Hillary Clinton and the Foreign Ministers of Cambodia, Laos, Thailand, and Vietnam to enhance partnerships between the U.S. and the Lower Mekong River countries in the areas of environment, health, education, and infrastructure. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is working in close cooperation with the U.S. Department of State to use research and data from the Lower Mekong Basin to provide hands-on results that will help decision makers in Lower Mekong River countries in the planning and design for restoration, conservation, and management efforts in the basin.

  19. Weather forecast

    CERN Document Server

    Courtier, P

    1994-01-01

    Weather prediction is performed using the numerical model of the atmosphere evolution.The evolution equations are derived from the Navier Stokes equation for the adiabatic part but the are very much complicated by the change of phase of water, the radiation porocess and the boundary layer.The technique used operationally is described. Weather prediction is an initial value problem and accurate initial conditions need to be specified. Due to the small number of observations available (105 ) as compared to the dimension of the model state variable (107),the problem is largely underdetermined. Techniques of optimal control and inverse problems are used and have been adapted to the large dimension of our problem. our problem.The at mosphere is a chaotic system; the implication for weather prediction is discussed. Ensemble prediction is used operationally and the technique for generating initial conditions which lead to a numerical divergence of the subsequent forecasts is described.

  20. Decommissioning a small glove box

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    An account is given of dismantling a fuel fabrication glove box using simple tooling. The fissile content of the box was first measured by several non-destructive techniques. After cleaning, the box was dismantled using hand tools and finally packed for disposal. A record of operator radiation doses, the time taken for each stage of the operation and packing information is given. (author)

  1. Opto-Box

    CERN Document Server

    Bertsche, David; The ATLAS collaboration

    2015-01-01

    The opto-box is a custom mini-crate for housing optical modules, which process and transfer optoelectronic data. Many novel solutions were developed for the custom design and manufacturing. The system tightly integrates electrical, mechanical, and thermal functionality into a small package of size 35x10x8 cm$^{3}$. Special attention was given to ensure proper shielding, grounding, cooling, high reliability, and environmental tolerance. The custom modules, which incorporate Application Specific Integrated Circuits (ASICs), were developed through a cycle of rigorous testing and redesign. In total, fourteen opto-boxes have been installed and loaded with modules on the ATLAS detector. They are currently in operation as part of the LHC run 2 data read-out chain.

  2. The Box Method

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Peter Vilhelm

    The velocity level in a room ventilated by jet ventilation is strongly influenced by the supply conditions. The momentum flow in the supply jets controls the air movement in the room and, therefore, it is very important that the inlet conditions and the numerical method can generate a satisfactor...... description of this momentum flow. The Box Method is a practical method for the description of an Air Terminal Device which will save grid points and ensure the right level of the momentum flow....

  3. Learning with box kernels.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melacci, Stefano; Gori, Marco

    2013-11-01

    Supervised examples and prior knowledge on regions of the input space have been profitably integrated in kernel machines to improve the performance of classifiers in different real-world contexts. The proposed solutions, which rely on the unified supervision of points and sets, have been mostly based on specific optimization schemes in which, as usual, the kernel function operates on points only. In this paper, arguments from variational calculus are used to support the choice of a special class of kernels, referred to as box kernels, which emerges directly from the choice of the kernel function associated with a regularization operator. It is proven that there is no need to search for kernels to incorporate the structure deriving from the supervision of regions of the input space, because the optimal kernel arises as a consequence of the chosen regularization operator. Although most of the given results hold for sets, we focus attention on boxes, whose labeling is associated with their propositional description. Based on different assumptions, some representer theorems are given that dictate the structure of the solution in terms of box kernel expansion. Successful results are given for problems of medical diagnosis, image, and text categorization. PMID:24051728

  4. Analysis of Tendencies Towards Changes in Temperatures of Railway Vehicle Axle Boxes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olegas Lunys

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available The paper analyzes variations in the temperature of axle-box heating of railroad rolling stock considering two modes of the train - driving and parking position. Additionally, the article describes the influence of the axle load and season on the heat of the axle-box, forecasts intolerable residual resources and explains a possibility of detecting likely breakage at the very beginning of defects. The paper also deals with scientific literature related to axle-box heating and focuses on the conducted practical and theoretical experiments. The carried out research has established the rates of operating heating and critical heating. The application of numerical values for the algorithm of automatic control devices could help with detecting the breakdowns of the axle-box before they reach a critical state and assist in forecasting residual operating resources.

  5. Forecasting in Business

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexandru Constangioara

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available There is little managementliterature on forecasting at national level and scarcepractical issues. We are told only that there are severalforecasting methods and that forecasting is a tool ofstrategic management. After addressing several claimsabout forecasting made in management literature, thispaper presents several forecasting methods used inoperational management.

  6. Projection optics box

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hale, Layton C.; Malsbury, Terry; Hudyma, Russell M.; Parker, John M.

    2000-01-01

    A projection optics box or assembly for use in an optical assembly, such as in an extreme ultraviolet lithography (EUVL) system using 10-14 nm soft x-ray photons. The projection optics box utilizes a plurality of highly reflective optics or mirrors, each mounted on a precision actuator, and which reflects an optical image, such as from a mask, in the EUVL system onto a point of use, such as a target or silicon wafer, the mask, for example, receiving an optical signal from a source assembly, such as a developed from laser system, via a series of highly reflective mirrors of the EUVL system. The plurality of highly reflective optics or mirrors are mounted in a housing assembly comprised of a series of bulkheads having wall members secured together to form a unit construction of maximum rigidity. Due to the precision actuators, the mirrors must be positioned precisely and remotely in tip, tilt, and piston (three degrees of freedom), while also providing exact constraint.

  7. Flood forecasting and uncertainty of precipitation forecasts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The timely and accurate flood forecasting is essential for the reliable flood warning. The effectiveness of flood warning is dependent on the forecast accuracy of certain physical parameters, such as the peak magnitude of the flood, its timing, location and duration. The conceptual rainfall - runoff models enable the estimation of these parameters and lead to useful operational forecasts. The accurate rainfall is the most important input into hydrological models. The input for the rainfall can be real time rain-gauges data, or weather radar data, or meteorological forecasted precipitation. The torrential nature of streams and fast runoff are characteristic for the most of the Slovenian rivers. Extensive damage is caused almost every year- by rainstorms affecting different regions of Slovenia' The lag time between rainfall and runoff is very short for Slovenian territory and on-line data are used only for now casting. Forecasted precipitations are necessary for hydrological forecast for some days ahead. ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) gives general forecast for several days ahead while more detailed precipitation data with limited area ALADIN/Sl model are available for two days ahead. There is a certain degree of uncertainty using such precipitation forecasts based on meteorological models. The variability of precipitation is very high in Slovenia and the uncertainty of ECMWF predicted precipitation is very large for Slovenian territory. ECMWF model can predict precipitation events correctly, but underestimates amount of precipitation in general The average underestimation is about 60% for Slovenian region. The predictions of limited area ALADIN/Si model up to; 48 hours ahead show greater applicability in hydrological forecasting. The hydrological models are sensitive to precipitation input. The deviation of runoff is much bigger than the rainfall deviation. Runoff to rainfall error fraction is about 1.6. If spatial and time distribution

  8. Development of golf tourism and golf tourism demand forecasts in Turkey: a study of Belek region Türkiye’de golf turizminin gelişimi ve golf turizmi talebi tahminleri: Belek bölgesine yönelik bir çalışma

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Murat Çuhadar

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Golf tourism has become one of the rapidly developing tourism types in Turkey, especially in the Belek region. In this study, detailed information about the development of golf tourism in Turkey from past to present was provided and  golf tourism demand to Belek region which is a major golf tourism destinastion in the world and Turkey was modeled and forecasted monthly by Box-Jenkins methodology for the May 2013 –December 2014 period. As a measure of golf tourism demand, number of monthly golf games were taken in the study and the monthly number of golf game statistics of January 2001 – April 2013 in the golf establishments in Belek tourism center were used. By producing ex-ante forecasts it is aimed to create a basis for tourism development plans prepared by the management of private and public sector and to provide support for administrators’ monthly planning decisions.Golf turizmi, Belek bölgesi başta olmak üzere Türkiye’de hızla gelişen turizm türlerinden biri haline gelmiştir. Bu çalışmada, Türkiye’de golf turizminin geçmişten günümüze gelişimi hakkında ayrıntılı bilgiler sunularak, Türkiye’nin ve dünyanın önde gelen golf turizmi merkezlerinden olan Belek turizm merkezine yönelik golf turizmi talebi Box-Jenkins metodoljisi ile modellenmiş ve 2013 (Mayıs itibariyle ve 2014 yılları için aylık olarak tahmin edilmiştir. Çalışmada golf turizmi talebinin ölçüsü olarak golf oyun sayıları alınmış ve Ocak 2001 – Nisan 2013 döneminde Belek turizm merkezindeki golf tesislerinde gerçekleşen aylık golf oyun sayısı istatistiklerinden yararlanılmıştır. Yapılan tahminler ile, özel sektör ve kamu yönetimleri tarafından hazırlanan turistik gelişme planları için bir zemin oluşturulması ve ilgili yöneticilerin aylık planlamalarında karar almalarına destek sağlanması amaçlanmıştır.

  9. Glove-box filters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Description is given of a device for simply and rapidly assembling and dissassembling the filters used inside sealed enclosures, such as glove-boxes and shielded cells equipped with nippers or manipulators, said filters being of the type comprising a cylindrical casing containing a filtering member, the upper portion of said casing being open so as to allow the gases to be cleaned to flow in, whereas the casing bottom is centrally provided with a hole extended outwardly by a threaded collar on which is screwed a connecting-sleeve to be fixed to the mouth of a gas outlet pipe. To a yoke transverse bar is welded a pin which can be likened to a bent spring-blade, one arm of which welded to said transverse bar, is rectilinear whereas its other arm is provided with a boss cooperating with a cavity made in a protrusion of said pipe, right under the mouth thereof

  10. ACSYS in a box

    CERN Document Server

    Briegel, C; Hendricks, B; King, C; Lackey, S; Neswold, R; Nicklaus, D; Patrick, J; Petrov, A; Rechenmacher, R; Schumann, C; Smedinghoff, J

    2012-01-01

    The Accelerator Control System at Fermilab has evolved to enable this relatively large control system to be encapsulated into a "box" such as a laptop. The goal was to provide a platform isolated from the "online" control system. This platform can be used internally for making major upgrades and modifications without impacting operations. It also provides a standalone environment for research and development including a turnkey control system for collaborators. Over time, the code base running on Scientific Linux has enabled all the salient features of the Fermilab's control system to be captured in an off-the-shelf laptop. The anticipated additional benefits of packaging the system include improved maintenance, reliability, documentation, and future enhancements.

  11. Fuel cycle forecasting - there are forecasts and there are forecasts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The FORECAST-NUCLEAR computer program described recognizes that forecasts are made to answer a variety of questions and, therefore, that no single forecast is universally appropriate. Also, it recognizes that no two individuals will completely agree as to the input data that are appropriate for obtaining an answer to even a single simple question. Accordingly, the program was written from a utilitarian standpoint: it allows working with multiple projections; data inputting is simple to allow game-playing; computation time is short to minimize the cost of 'what if' assessements; and detail is internally carried to allow meaningful analysis. (author)

  12. Improving Software Reliability Forecasting

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Burtsy, Bernard; Albeanu, Grigore; Boros, Dragos N.; Popentiu, Florin; Nicola, Victor

    1997-01-01

    This work investigates some methods for software reliability forecasting. A supermodel is presented as a suited tool for prediction of reliability in software project development. Also, times series forecasting for cumulative interfailure time is proposed and illustrated.

  13. Forecasting the macro economy

    OpenAIRE

    Robert Ewing; David Gruen; John Hawkins

    2005-01-01

    This article examines Treasury's macroeconomic forecasting performance over the period from 1989-90 to 2003-04, with a focus on forecasts of nominal and real GDP, the GDP deflator, the unemployment rate, and CPI inflation.

  14. Cardboard Boxes: Learning Concepts Galore!

    Science.gov (United States)

    Warner, Laverne; Wilmoth, Linda

    2007-01-01

    Mrs. Keenan, a preschool teacher, observed her 3-year-old granddaughter Riley pull, tug, and stack piles of holiday boxes on the floor. She remembered that her child care director had suggested using boxes as a curriculum theme, but she hadn't given much thought about the idea until now. She said to herself, "I wonder if my children would be as…

  15. Inflation Forecast Contracts

    OpenAIRE

    Gersbach, Hans; Hahn, Volker

    2011-01-01

    We introduce a new type of incentive contract for central bankers: inflation forecast contracts, which make central bankers’ remunerations contingent on the precision of their inflation forecasts. We show that such contracts enable central bankers to influence inflation expectations more effectively, thus facilitating more successful stabilization of current inflation. Inflation forecast contracts improve the accuracy of inflation forecasts, but have adverse consequences for output. On balanc...

  16. Twitter Improves Influenza Forecasting

    OpenAIRE

    Paul, Michael J.; Dredze, Mark; Broniatowski, David

    2014-01-01

    Accurate disease forecasts are imperative when preparing for influenza epidemic outbreaks; nevertheless, these forecasts are often limited by the time required to collect new, accurate data. In this paper, we show that data from the microblogging community Twitter significantly improves influenza forecasting. Most prior influenza forecast models are tested against historical influenza-like illness (ILI) data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). These data are releas...

  17. FORECASTING IN FUZZY SYSTEMS

    OpenAIRE

    HSIAO-FAN WANG; RUEY-CHYN TSAUR

    2011-01-01

    Fuzzy regression has been applied to marketing, management, and sales forecasting for many years. In this paper, two types of forecasting methods within the framework of fuzzy regression analysis are discussed. The first type is a conventional forecasting method, which intends to find the value of a dependent variable when the given values of independent variables are beyond the range covered by historical data. The second type considers forecasting in which the necessary values of independen...

  18. An ARIMA model for forecasting Wi-Fi data network traffic values

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cesar Augusto Hernández Suarez

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available This present scientific and technological research was aimed at showing that time series represent an excellent tool for data traffic modelling within Wi-Fi networks. Box-Jenkins methodology (described herein was used for this purpose. Wi-Fi traffic modelling through correlated models, such as time series, allowed a great part of the data’s behaviourl dynamics to be adjusted into a sin- gle equation and future traffic values to be estimated based on this. All this is advantageous when it comes to planning integrated coverage, reserving resources and performing more efficient and timely control at different levels of the Wi-Fi data network func- tional hierarchy. A six order ARIMA traffic model was obtained as a research outcome which predicted traffic with relatively small mean square error values for an 18-day term.

  19. Managing Sales Forecasters

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    L.P. de Bruijn (Bert); Ph.H.B.F. Franses (Philip Hans)

    2012-01-01

    textabstractA Forecast Support System (FSS), which generates sales forecasts, is a sophisticated business analytical tool that can help to improve targeted business decisions. Many companies use such a tool, although at the same time they may allow managers to quote their own forecasts. These sales

  20. Students' approaches to mathematical tasks using software as a black-box, glass-box or open-box

    OpenAIRE

    Hosein, Anesa

    2009-01-01

    Three mathematical software modes are investigated in this thesis: black-box software showing no mathematical steps; glass-box software showing the intermediate mathematical steps; and open-box software showing and allowing interaction at the intermediate mathematical steps. The glass-box and open-box software modes are often recommended over the black-box software to help understanding but there is limited research comparing all three. This research investigated students' performance and the...

  1. Forecasters priorities for improving probabilistic flood forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wetterhall, Fredrik; Pappenberger, Florian; Cloke, Hannah L.; Thielen-del Pozo, Jutta

    2013-04-01

    Hydrological ensemble prediction systems (HEPS) have in recent years been increasingly used for the operational forecasting of floods by hydrometeorological agencies. The most obvious advantages of HEPS are that more of the uncertainty in the modelling system can be assessed; and that ensemble prediction systems generally have better skill than deterministic systems both in the terms of the mean forecast performance and the potential forecasting of extreme events. Research efforts have so far mostly been devoted to the improvement of the model systems themselves. However, results from a survey to gauge views of hydrological operational forecasters suggest that there are other areas of HEPS that need urgent attention; such as assessment of the full uncertainty in the forecast chain through multimodel approaches, developments and implementation of a robust skill assessment of the forecasts and most importantly further collaboration and knowledge exchange between operational forecasters and the model development community. We suggest a simple model to decide in which order to tackle the most urgent priorities to make the most of available resources.

  2. Evaluating probability forecasts

    CERN Document Server

    Lai, Tze Leung; Shen, David Bo; 10.1214/11-AOS902

    2012-01-01

    Probability forecasts of events are routinely used in climate predictions, in forecasting default probabilities on bank loans or in estimating the probability of a patient's positive response to treatment. Scoring rules have long been used to assess the efficacy of the forecast probabilities after observing the occurrence, or nonoccurrence, of the predicted events. We develop herein a statistical theory for scoring rules and propose an alternative approach to the evaluation of probability forecasts. This approach uses loss functions relating the predicted to the actual probabilities of the events and applies martingale theory to exploit the temporal structure between the forecast and the subsequent occurrence or nonoccurrence of the event.

  3. Method of positioning channel box

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Upon measuring the dimension of a channel box by disposing ultrasonic sensors to the uppermost portion of a measuring device main body, the deviation of the channel box from the center of the device main body is detected by measuring the distance betwen the sensors at the uppermost portion of the device main body and the lower end of the channel box for four surfaces simultaneously. The direction and the distance for moving the channel box to the center of the device main body are calculated based on the results to feedback tham for the operation of a fuel exchanger, thereby positioning the channel box upon insertion to the device main body. That is, a fuel assembly loaded with the channel box is gradually brought down being suspended from a crane and the position of the channel box is recognized by the ultrasonic sensors, thereafter, the position of the center is corrected and it is brought down again and the outer dimension is measured. Accurate positioning in a short periodof time is enabled and operator's burden can be mitigated to prevent the danger of indury. (N.H.)

  4. Microclimate boxes for panel paintings

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wadum, Jørgen

    The use of microclimate boxes to protect vulnerable panel paintings is, therefore, not a new phenomenon of the past two or three decades. Rather, it has been a concern for conservators and curators to protect these objects of art at home and in transit since the end of the nineteenth century. The...... increased number of travelling exhibitions in recent years has heightened the need to protect paintings during circulation (Thomson 1961; Mecklenburg 1991). The use and design of microclimate boxes have been evolving since 1892. These boxes may be divided into three broad groups: those using an active...

  5. Two-dimensional box plot

    OpenAIRE

    Phattrawan Tongkumchum

    2005-01-01

    In this paper we propose a two-dimensional box plot, a simple bivariate extension of the box plot and the scatter plot. This plot comprises a pair of trapeziums oriented in the direction of a fitted straight line, with symbols denoting extreme values. The choice for the fitted straight resistant line showing the relationship between the two variables is Tukey’s resistance line. The main components of the plot are an inner box containing 50% of the projection points of the observations on the ...

  6. Energy forecast. Final report; Energiudsigten. Slutrapport

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2010-04-15

    A number of instruments, i.e. Internet, media campaigns, boxes displaying electricity prices (SEE1) and spot contract has been tested for households to shift their electricity consumption to times when prices are low. Of the implemented media campaigns, only the daily viewing of Energy forecast on TV had an impact. Consumers gained greater knowledge of electricity prices and electricity consumption loads, but only showed little interest in shifting electricity consumption. However, a measurable effect appeared at night with the group that had both concluded a spot contract and received an SEE1. These factors increase the awareness of the price of electricity and the possibility of shifting electricity consumption. (Energy 10)

  7. Myiasis in two box turtles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gould, W J; Georgi, M E

    1991-10-15

    Two eastern box turtles (Terrapene carolina carolina) were treated for myiasis caused by Sarcophaga cistudinis. The tortoises were examined because of swellings of the proximal cervical regions. Both fully recovered following surgical removal of multiple larvae. PMID:1748614

  8. Long-range forecasting of intermittent streamflow

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. F. van Ogtrop

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Long-range forecasting of intermittent streamflow in semi-arid Australia poses a number of major challenges. One of the challenges relates to modelling zero, skewed, non-stationary, and non-linear data. To address this, a probabilistic statistical model to forecast streamflow 12 months ahead is applied to five semi-arid catchments in South Western Queensland. The model uses logistic regression through Generalised Additive Models for Location, Scale and Shape (GAMLSS to determine the probability of flow occurring in any of the systems. We then use the same regression framework in combination with a right-skewed distribution, the Box-Cox t distribution, to model the intensity (depth of the non-zero streamflows. Time, seasonality and climate indices, describing the Pacific and Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures, are tested as covariates in the GAMLSS model to make probabilistic 12-month forecasts of the occurrence and intensity of streamflow. The output reveals that in the study region the occurrence and variability of flow is driven by sea surface temperatures and therefore forecasts can be made with some skill.

  9. Long-range forecasting of intermittent streamflow

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. F. van Ogtrop

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available Long-range forecasting of intermittent streamflow in semi-arid Australia poses a number of major challenges. One of the challenges relates to modelling zero, skewed, non-stationary, and non-linear data. To address this, a statistical model to forecast streamflow up to 12 months ahead is applied to five semi-arid catchments in South Western Queensland. The model uses logistic regression through Generalised Additive Models for Location, Scale and Shape (GAMLSS to determine the probability of flow occurring in any of the systems. We then use the same regression framework in combination with a right-skewed distribution, the Box-Cox t distribution, to model the intensity (depth of the non-zero streamflows. Time, seasonality and climate indices, describing the Pacific and Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures, are tested as covariates in the GAMLSS model to make probabilistic 6 and 12-month forecasts of the occurrence and intensity of streamflow. The output reveals that in the study region the occurrence and variability of flow is driven by sea surface temperatures and therefore forecasts can be made with some skill.

  10. Evaluating Density Forecasts

    OpenAIRE

    Francis X. Diebold; Todd A. Gunther; Anthony S. Tay

    1997-01-01

    The authors propose methods for evaluating and improving density forecasts. They focus primarily on methods that are applicable regardless of the particular user's loss function, though they take explicit account of the relationships between density forecasts, action choices, and the corresponding expected loss throughout. They illustrate the methods with a detailed series of examples, and they discuss extensions to improving and combining suboptimal density forecasts, multistep-ahead density...

  11. Forecasting for Marketing

    OpenAIRE

    Armstrong, J S; R. Brodie

    2005-01-01

    Research on forecasting is extensive and includes many studies that have tested alternative methods in order to determine which ones are most effective. We review this evidence in order to provide guidelines for forecasting for marketing. The coverage includes intentions, Delphi, role playing, conjoint analysis, judgmental bootstrapping, analogies, extrapolation, rule-based forecasting, expert systems, and econometric methods. We discuss research about which methods are most appropriate to fo...

  12. Forecasting intermittent demand

    OpenAIRE

    Teunter, R.H.; Duncan, L

    2006-01-01

    Methods for forecasting intermittent demand are compared using a large data-set from the UK Royal Air Force (RAF). Several important results are found. First, we show that the traditional per period forecast error measures are not appropriate for intermittent demand, even though they are consistently used in the literature. Second, by comparing target service levels to achieved service levels when inventory decisions are based on demand forecasts, we show that Croston's method (and a variant)...

  13. Thinking Outside the Box

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The World Nuclear Transport Institute was formed to fill a need to provide a dedicated vehicle for the radioactive transport and packaging industry sectors worldwide, to exchange information and ideas, all with a view to working toward consolidated industry positions on the key issues affecting safe, efficient and reliable transport. WNTI was also intended to be a strong voice for industry in those international and national bodies where deliberations on such transport safety issues take place. The very fact that companies, sometimes in competition with each other, were prepared to come together in this way, reflects two important points: firstly, it represents an acknowledgement on industry's part that safe, effective and reliable transport is the sine qua non, the absolute essential. And second, it is a recognition that it is enhanced to the extent that industry is able to collaborate to this end. This is thinking outside the box. Another important attribute of safety is 'stability'. Everyone likes to know where he or she stands. The radioactive materials packaging and transport industry thrives within a stable regulatory framework for safety. For a stable regulatory regime allows operators to be properly trained; it allows operators to become familiar with safety requirements, and to be at ease with them. Stability is conducive to safety and efficiency. Stability is good for business too - for stability in package and transport requirements allows sufficient time for a fair return on investment in expensive package design, manufacture, licensing and use over time. Stability should not, however, be opposed to creativity. From experience we can develop new thinking to improve efficiency as illustrated in examples of work related to the packaging and transport of Uranium Concentrates for instance.. Another example is work within WNTI on the thermal test requirements for the packaging of uranium hexafluoride. The robustness of packages is based on the risk factors

  14. Comparison of black-box, glass-box and open-box software for aiding conceptual understanding

    OpenAIRE

    Hosein, Anesa; Aczel, James; Clow, Doug; Richardson, John T. E.

    2008-01-01

    Three mathematical software types: black-box (no steps shown), glass-box (steps shown) and open-box (interactive steps) were used by 32 students to solve conceptual and procedural tasks on the computer via remote observation. Comparison of the three software types suggests that there is no difference in the scores that students receive for conceptual understanding tasks. Students using the black-box are more likely to explore answers than students using the glass and open-box software.

  15. Fiscal Forecasting in Italy

    OpenAIRE

    Carabotta, Laura

    2015-01-01

    [eng] The thesis “Fiscal forecasting in Italy” is comprised of three main chapters in which is analyzed, from an empirical point of view, several issues related to public finance forecasts, with an application to Italy. Chapter II, “Accuracy of fiscal forecasts in Italy” is focused on one of the most important aspects of the new Treaty: it requires that the decisions and recommendations taken by the European Commission are no longer be based on outcomes but on forecasts. In this chapter, I e...

  16. Plate forming and break down pizza box

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pantisano, Frank; Devine, Scott M.

    1992-01-01

    A standard corrugated paper pizza box is provided with slit cuts cut through the top panel of the pizza box in a shape to form four circular serving plates with a beveled raised edge and cross slit cuts through the bottom panel of the pizza box separating the box into four essentially equal portions for easy disposal.

  17. Insolation Forecasting Using Weather Forecast with Weather Change Patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shimada, Takae; Kurokawa, Kosuke

    This paper reports an insolation forecasting method for photovoltaic power predictions. The method of proposal forecasts the global irradiance every one hour by using weather forecast every three hours. The weather forecast is classified into 14 kinds of weather change categories by weather change patterns, and the insolation forecasting accuracy is improved. The forecasting accuracy was examined based on the measurement data and the weather forecast announced in Tokyo. In the result, using weather change patterns decrease mean absolute error ratio of hourly forecasting from 32.6 to 30.2% and the error ratio of daily forecasting from 24.7 to 23.5%. The result also shows the possibility that the error ratio of hourly forecasting is decreased to 24.5% and the error ratio of daily forecasting is decreased to 17.8% in Tokyo when the weather forecast accuracy is improved.

  18. Forecasting the Euro: Do Forecasters Have an Asymmetric Loss Function?

    OpenAIRE

    Fritsche, Ulrich; Pierdzioch, Christian; Ruelke, Jan-Christoph; Stadtmann, Georg

    2012-01-01

    Based on the approach advanced by Elliott et al. (Rev. Ec. Studies. 72, 1197-1125,2005), we analyzed whether the loss function of a sample of exchange rate forecasters is asymmetric in the forecast error. Using forecasts of the euro/dollar exchange rate, we found that the shape of the loss function varies across forecasters. Our empirical results suggest that it is important to account for the heterogeneity of exchange rate forecasts at the microeconomic level of individual forecasters when o...

  19. A Test of Forecast Consistency Using USDA Livestock Price Forecasts

    OpenAIRE

    Sanders, Dwight R.; Mark R. Manfredo

    2005-01-01

    In traditional tests of forecast rationality, price forecasts are usually differenced to obtain stationarity. However, this data transformation may ignore important long-run information contained in forecasted price levels. Here, the concept of forecast consistency is paired with rationality concepts used in the market efficiency literature to develop a sequential testing procedure for forecast consistency and rationality. USDA quarterly livestock price forecasts do not demonstrate long-run c...

  20. First-aid boxes - Reminder

    CERN Multimedia

    GS Department

    2010-01-01

    With a view to ensuring optimum use of the first-aid boxes on the CERN site, we should like to remind you of various changes introduced in March 2009: The TSO of the buildings concerned is responsible for the first-aid boxes, including checking their contents.   First-aid boxes may be restocked ONLY at the CERN stores (SCEM No. 54.99.80). This is no longer possible at the Infirmary. The associated cost is charged to the Departments.   First-aid boxes should be used only for mild injuries. All other cases should be referred to the Medical Service Infirmary (Bldg. 57 – ground-floor, tel. 73802) between 8.00 a.m. and 5.30 p.m. or to the Fire and Rescue Service (tel. 74444). N.B.: This information does not apply to the red emergency first-aid boxes in the underground areas or to the emergency kits for use in the event of being splashed with hydrofluoric acid.

  1. House Price Forecasts, Forecaster Herding, and the Recent Crisis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christian Pierdzioch

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available We used the Wall Street Journal survey data for the period 2006–2012 to analyze whether forecasts of house prices and housing starts provide evidence of (anti-herding of forecasters. Forecasts are consistent with herding (anti-herding of forecasters if forecasts are biased towards (away from the consensus forecast. We found that anti-herding is prevalent among forecasters of house prices. We also report that, following the recent crisis, the prevalence of forecaster anti-herding seems to have changed over time.

  2. House Price Forecasts, Forecaster Herding, and the Recent Crisis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stadtmann, Georg; Pierdzioch; Ruelke

    2013-01-01

    We used the Wall Street Journal survey data for the period 2006–2012 to analyze whether forecasts of house prices and housing starts provide evidence of (anti-)herding of forecasters. Forecasts are consistent with herding (anti-herding) of forecasters if forecasts are biased towards (away from) t...... consensus forecast. We found that anti-herding is prevalent among forecasters of house prices. We also report that, following the recent crisis, the prevalence of forecaster anti-herding seems to have changed over time....

  3. The Beauty of Forecasting

    OpenAIRE

    David Orrell

    2014-01-01

    In a 2009 news article entitled ÒHow Did Economists Get It So Wrong?,Ó Paul Krugman wrote, ÒThe economics profession went astray because economists, as a group, mistook beauty, clad in impressive- looking mathematics, for truth.Ó In this article, David Orrell asks if the same could be said of forecasters. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2014

  4. Housing price forecastability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bork, Lasse; Møller, Stig Vinther

    2012-01-01

    We examine US housing price forecastability using a common factor approach based on a large panel of 122 economic time series. We …nd that a simple three-factor model generates an explanatory power of about 50% in one-quarter ahead in-sample forecasting regressions. The predictive power of the mo...

  5. Asymptotic Symmetries from finite boxes

    CERN Document Server

    Andrade, Tomas

    2015-01-01

    It is natural to regulate an infinite-sized system by imposing a boundary condition at finite distance, placing the system in a "box." This breaks symmetries, though the breaking is small when the box is large. One should thus be able to obtain the asymptotic symmetries of the infinite system by studying regulated systems. We provide concrete examples in the context of Einstein-Hilbert gravity (with negative or zero cosmological constant) by showing in 4 or more dimensions how the Anti-de Sitter and Poincar\\'e asymptotic symmetries can be extracted from gravity in a spherical box with Dirichlet boundary conditions. In 2+1 dimensions we obtain the full double-Virasoro algebra of asymptotic symmetries for AdS$_3$ and, correspondingly, the full Bondi-Metzner-Sachs (BMS) algebra for asymptotically flat space. In higher dimensions, a related approach may continue to be useful for constructing a good asymptotically flat phase space with BMS asymptotic symmetries.

  6. Asymptotic symmetries from finite boxes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrade, Tomás; Marolf, Donald

    2016-01-01

    It is natural to regulate an infinite-sized system by imposing a boundary condition at finite distance, placing the system in a 'box.' This breaks symmetries, though the breaking is small when the box is large. One should thus be able to obtain the asymptotic symmetries of the infinite system by studying regulated systems. We provide concrete examples in the context of Einstein-Hilbert gravity (with negative or zero cosmological constant) by showing in 4 or more dimensions how the anti-de Sitter and Poincaré asymptotic symmetries can be extracted from gravity in a spherical box with Dirichlet boundary conditions. In 2 + 1 dimensions we obtain the full double-Virasoro algebra of asymptotic symmetries for AdS3 and, correspondingly, the full Bondi-Metzner-Sachs (BMS) algebra for asymptotically flat space. In higher dimensions, a related approach may continue to be useful for constructing a good asymptotically flat phase space with BMS asymptotic symmetries.

  7. Identifying competencies of boxing coaches

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ioannis Tasiopoulos

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this study was to find out the management skills required by boxing coaches to administrate their clubs. For the purposes of this study a scale was constructed which was answered by 98 boxing coaches. Explanatory factor analysis revealed seven factors: Communication-public relations (5 items, event management (4 items, management techniques (4 items, new technologies (4 items, prevention-safety (2 items, sport (5 items and sports facilities (2 items. The Cronbach of the scale was 0.85. The five competencies that rated by the coaches were: Supervisors of the area of training, maintaining excellent communication with athletes, using new technologies (e-mail, internet, handling disciplinary matters, accidents, complaints and reports on some sporting games and promoted harmony among athletes. We concluded that boxing coaches understand that the competencies required for meeting their obligations, were related to sports, prevention, safety and communications-public relations.

  8. Inaccuracy in traffic forecasts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Flyvbjerg, Bent; Holm, Mette K. Skamris; Buhl, Søren Ladegaard

    2006-01-01

    This paper presents results from the first statistically significant study of traffic forecasts in transportation infrastructure projects. The sample used is the largest of its kind, covering 210 projects in 14 nations worth US$58 billion. The study shows with very high statistical significance...... that forecasters generally do a poor job of estimating the demand for transportation infrastructure projects. The result is substantial downside financial and economic risk. Forecasts have not become more accurate over the 30-year period studied. If techniques and skills for arriving at accurate demand...... reference class forecasting. Highly inaccurate traffic forecasts combined with large standard deviations translate into large financial and economic risks. But such risks are typically ignored or downplayed by planners and decision-makers, to the detriment of social and economic welfare. The paper presents...

  9. USING TEXT MINING TECHNIQUES TO ANALYZE HOW MOVIE FORUMS AFFECT THE BOX OFFICE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I-ping Chiang

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available As a forecasting tool, audience movie reviews provide a guide for film companies. This study uses a text mining technique to analyze the American film market. It explores movie reviews including word of mouth (WOM factors (i.e., movie content, positive, negative, and promotion and related factors (i.e., time, rating, and the number of ratings for the box office. According to the relationship between the keyword clusters, the major factors that affect the box office are determined. The findings provide reference for movie producers to manipulate WOMs.

  10. Innovations in Los Alamos alpha box design

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Destructive examinations of irradiated fuel pins containing plutonium fuel must be performed in shielded hot cells with strict provisions for containing the plutonium. Alpha boxes provide containment for the plutonium, toxic fission products, and other hazardous highly radioactive materials. The alpha box contains windows for viewing and a variety of transfer systems specially designed to allow transfers in and out of the alpha box without spread of the hazardous materials that are contained in the box. Alpha boxes have been in use in the Wing 9 hot cells at Los Alamos National Laboratory for more than 20 years. Features of the newly designed alpha boxes are presented

  11. Innovations in Los Alamos alpha box design

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ledbetter, J.M.; Dowler, K.E.; Cook, J.H.

    1985-01-01

    Destructive examinations of irradiated fuel pins containing plutonium fuel must be performed in shielded hot cells with strict provisions for containing the plutonium. Alpha boxes provide containment for the plutonium, toxic fission products, and other hazardous highly radioactive materials. The alpha box contains windows for viewing and a variety of transfer systems specially designed to allow transfers in and out of the alpha box without spread of the hazardous materials that are contained in the box. Alpha boxes have been in use in the Wing 9 hot cells at Los Alamos National Laboratory for more than 20 years. Features of the newly designed alpha boxes are presented.

  12. Partons of a spherical box

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Calculation of parton distributions in the 'cavity approximation' to the MIT bag model gives a divergent sum of positive terms. In this version of the model the flexible movable bag is replaced by an inflexible immovable box. This suggests that Bjorken scaling does not hold for the deep inelastic scattering in this version of the model. (K.A.)

  13. On the Dirichlet's Box Principle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poon, Kin-Keung; Shiu, Wai-Chee

    2008-01-01

    In this note, we will focus on several applications on the Dirichlet's box principle in Discrete Mathematics lesson and number theory lesson. In addition, the main result is an innovative game on a triangular board developed by the authors. The game has been used in teaching and learning mathematics in Discrete Mathematics and some high schools in…

  14. A Box Full of Kisses

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    崔增印

    2008-01-01

    The story goes that some time ago,a man pun- ished his 3-year-old daughter for wasting a roll of gold wrapping paper.Money was tight and he became infuriated when the child tried to decorate a box to put under the Christmas tree.Nevertheless,the little girl brought the gift to

  15. Improving short term load forecast accuracy via combining sister forecasts

    OpenAIRE

    Jakub Nowotarski; Bidong Liu; Rafal Weron; Tao Hong

    2015-01-01

    Although combining forecasts is well-known to be an effective approach to improving forecast accuracy, the literature and case studies on combining load forecasts are very limited. In this paper, we investigate the performance of combining so-called sister load forecasts with eight methods: three variants of arithmetic averaging, four regression based and one performance based method. Through comprehensive analysis of two case studies developed from public data (Global Energy Forecasting Comp...

  16. Global Energy Forecasting Competition 2012

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hong, Tao; Pinson, Pierre; Fan, Shu

    2014-01-01

    The Global Energy Forecasting Competition (GEFCom2012) attracted hundreds of participants worldwide, who contributed many novel ideas to the energy forecasting field. This paper introduces both tracks of GEFCom2012, hierarchical load forecasting and wind power forecasting, with details on the...

  17. Cosmetic Foot Surgery: Fashion's Pandora's Box

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... News, Videos & Podcasts » Articles » Text Size Print Bookmark Cosmetic Foot Surgery: Fashion’s Pandora’s Box? Cosmetic Foot Surgery: Fashion’s Pandora’s Box? Foot and Ankle Surgeons Warn ...

  18. NYHOPS Forecast Model Results

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — 3D Marine Nowcast/Forecast System for the New York Bight NYHOPS subdomain. Currents, waves, surface meteorology, and water conditions.

  19. NYHOPS Forecast Model Results

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — 3D Marine Nowcast/Forecast System for the New York Bight Apex NYHOPS subdomain. Currents, waves, surface meteorology, and water conditions.

  20. Statistical evaluation of forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mader, Malenka; Mader, Wolfgang; Gluckman, Bruce J.; Timmer, Jens; Schelter, Björn

    2014-08-01

    Reliable forecasts of extreme but rare events, such as earthquakes, financial crashes, and epileptic seizures, would render interventions and precautions possible. Therefore, forecasting methods have been developed which intend to raise an alarm if an extreme event is about to occur. In order to statistically validate the performance of a prediction system, it must be compared to the performance of a random predictor, which raises alarms independent of the events. Such a random predictor can be obtained by bootstrapping or analytically. We propose an analytic statistical framework which, in contrast to conventional methods, allows for validating independently the sensitivity and specificity of a forecasting method. Moreover, our method accounts for the periods during which an event has to remain absent or occur after a respective forecast.

  1. Intelligent energy demand forecasting

    CERN Document Server

    Hong, Wei-Chiang

    2013-01-01

    This book offers approaches and methods to calculate optimal electric energy allocation, using evolutionary algorithms and intelligent analytical tools to improve the accuracy of demand forecasting. Focuses on improving the drawbacks of existing algorithms.

  2. Forecast Icing Product

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Forecast Icing Product (FIP) is an automatically-generated index suitable for depicting areas of potentially hazardous airframe icing. The FIP algorithm uses...

  3. Forecasting using relative entropy

    OpenAIRE

    Robertson, John C.; Ellis W. Tallman; Charles H. Whiteman

    2002-01-01

    The paper describes a relative entropy procedure for imposing moment restrictions on simulated forecast distributions from a variety of models. Starting from an empirical forecast distribution for some variables of interest, the technique generates a new empirical distribution that satisfies a set of moment restrictions. The new distribution is chosen to be as close as possible to the original in the sense of minimizing the associated Kullback-Leibler Information Criterion, or relative entrop...

  4. Evaluating House Price Forecasts

    OpenAIRE

    John M. Clapp; Carmelo Giaccotto

    2002-01-01

    House prices, unlike stock prices, appear to be predictable with some degree of accuracy. We use an autoregressive process to model the time series behavior of a city-wide house price index, and then produce one-quarter ahead forecasts for individual properties. Better real estate decisions require forecasting models with desirable properties for prediction errors (PEs). We propose that managers use a battery of tests to compare PEs; in particular, non-parametric smoothing of the empirical di...

  5. The Heuristic Interpretation of Box Plots

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lem, Stephanie; Onghena, Patrick; Verschaffel, Lieven; Van Dooren, Wim

    2013-01-01

    Box plots are frequently used, but are often misinterpreted by students. Especially the area of the box in box plots is often misinterpreted as representing number or proportion of observations, while it actually represents their density. In a first study, reaction time evidence was used to test whether heuristic reasoning underlies this…

  6. Forecasting the Brazilian real and the Mexican peso: Asymmetric loss, forecast rationality, and forecaster herding

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stadtmann, Georg; Fritsche, Ulrich; Pierdzioch, Christian;

    2015-01-01

    Using forecasts of exchange rates of the Brazilian real and the Mexican peso against the US dollar, we analyze the symmetry of the loss function of exchange-rate forecasters and the rationality of their forecasts. Symmetry of the loss function can be rejected for some forecasters but not all. Even...

  7. Probabilistic energy forecasting: Global Energy Forecasting Competition 2014 and beyond

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hong, Tao; Pinson, Pierre; Fan, Shu;

    2016-01-01

    fundamentally. In this competitive and dynamic environment, many decision-making processes rely on probabilistic forecasts to quantify the uncertain future. Although most of the papers in the energy forecasting literature focus on point or singlevalued forecasts, the research interest in probabilistic energy...... forecasting research has taken off rapidly in recent years. In this paper, we summarize the recent research progress on probabilistic energy forecasting. A major portion of the paper is devoted to introducing the Global Energy Forecasting Competition 2014 (GEFCom2014), a probabilistic energy forecasting...... competition with four tracks on load, price, wind and solar forecasting, which attracted 581 participants from 61 countries. We conclude the paper with 12 predictions for the next decade of energy forecasting....

  8. Box-shaped halophilic bacteria.

    OpenAIRE

    Javor, B; Requadt, C; Stoeckenius, W

    1982-01-01

    Three morphologically similar strains of halophilic, box-shaped procaryotes have been isolated from brines collected in the Sinai, Baja California (Mexico), and southern California (United States). Although the isolates in their morphology resemble Walsby's square bacteria, which are a dominant morphological type in the Red Sea and Baja California brines, they are probably not identical to them. The cells show the general characteristics of extreme halophiles and archaebacteria. They contain ...

  9. Broken links and black boxes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sindbæk, Søren Michael

    2013-01-01

    Long-distance communication has emerged as a particular focus for archaeological exploration using network theory, analysis, and modelling. Initial attempts to adapt methods from social network analysis to archaeological data have, however, struggled to produce decisive results. This paper argues...... ruined network from observable distributions and patterns of association in the archaeological record. In formal terms this is not a problem of network analysis, but network synthesis: the classic problem of cracking codes or reconstructing black-box circuits....

  10. Das k-Box-Produkt

    OpenAIRE

    Elser, Stefan

    2011-01-01

    Ziel dieser Doktorarbeit ist es, bekannte und oft verwendete Eigenschaften des Tychonow-Produkts in analoger Form für das k-Box-Produkt zu beweisen, was bisher noch nicht geschehen ist, und die Verbindung zwischen der Infinitären Kombinatorik und der Topologie zu vertiefen. In der Infinitären Kombinatorik, ein Zweig der modernen Mengenlehre, bedient man sich gerne topologischer Begriffe, um einerseits Ergebnisse zu verdeutlichen und um andererseits den sehr abstrakten kombinatorischen Be...

  11. HEPS challenges the wisdom of the crowds: the PEAK-Box Game. Try it yourself!

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zappa, Massimiliano; Liechti, Kaethi; Pappenberger, Florian; van Andel, Schalk Jan; Ramos, Maria-Helena

    2014-05-01

    In many situations the wisdom of the crowds (Galton, 1907) demonstrated to be superior to the estimation of single individuals. This is maybe one of the reasons why operational hydrometeorological services are more and more recognizing the added value given by ensemble prediction systems. A crowd of members has more wisdom than a single model output. Following a recent tradition, this year a game will also be played during the session on "Ensemble hydro-meteorological forecasting". During this presentation, the crowd attending the session will be asked to estimate the outcome of a probabilistic prediction system and to perform better than the Peak-Box approach. The "Peak-Box" is a novel visual support that can be communicated alongside with ensemble discharge forecasts (Zappa et al., 2013). This visual solution should provide support in the assessment of actions relying on accurate estimation of peak-timings and peak-flows. Results will be presented and discussed together with the participants of the session. Furthermore a blog post will appear later on www.hepex.org. References: Galton F. 1907.Vox populi. Nature 75: 450-451. Zappa M, Fundel F, Jaun S. 2013. A "Peak-Flow Box" Approach for Supporting Interpretation and Evaluation of Operational Ensemble Flood Forecasts. Hydrological processes. 27: 117-131. doi:/10.1002/hyp.9521

  12. Advances in Business and Management Forecasting

    CERN Document Server

    Lawrence, Kenneth D

    2011-01-01

    The topics within Advances in Business and Management Forecasting will normally include sales and marketing, forecasting, new product forecasting, judgmentally-based forecasting, the application of surveys to forecasting, forecasting for strategic business decisions, improvements in forecasting accuracy, and sales response models.

  13. Operational river discharge forecasting in poorly gauged basins: the Kavango River basin case study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bauer-Gottwein, Peter; Jensen, Iris Hedegaard; Guzinski, R.;

    2015-01-01

    Operational probabilistic forecasts of river discharge are essential for effective water resources management. Many studies have addressed this topic using different approaches ranging from purely statistical black-box approaches to physically based and distributed modeling schemes employing data...... assimilation techniques. However, few studies have attempted to develop operational probabilistic forecasting approaches for large and poorly gauged river basins. The objective of this study is to develop open-source software tools to support hydrologic forecasting and integrated water resources management in...... Africa. We present an operational probabilistic forecasting approach which uses public-domain climate forcing data and a hydrologic-hydrodynamic model which is entirely based on open-source software. Data assimilation techniques are used to inform the forecasts with the latest available observations...

  14. Operational river discharge forecasting in poorly gauged basins: the Kavango River Basin case study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Bauer-Gottwein

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Operational probabilistic forecasts of river discharge are essential for effective water resources management. Many studies have addressed this topic using different approaches ranging from purely statistical black-box approaches to physically-based and distributed modelling schemes employing data assimilation techniques. However, few studies have attempted to develop operational probabilistic forecasting approaches for large and poorly gauged river basins. This study is funded by the European Space Agency under the TIGER-NET project. The objective of TIGER-NET is to develop open-source software tools to support integrated water resources management in Africa and to facilitate the use of satellite earth observation data in water management. We present an operational probabilistic forecasting approach which uses public-domain climate forcing data and a hydrologic–hydrodynamic model which is entirely based on open-source software. Data assimilation techniques are used to inform the forecasts with the latest available observations. Forecasts are produced in real time for lead times of 0 to 7 days. The operational probabilistic forecasts are evaluated using a selection of performance statistics and indicators. The forecasting system delivers competitive forecasts for the Kavango River, which are reliable and sharp. Results indicate that the value of the forecasts is greatest for intermediate lead times between 4 and 7 days.

  15. The strategy of professional forecasting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ottaviani, Marco; Sørensen, Peter Norman

    2006-01-01

    We develop and compare two theories of professional forecasters’ strategic behavior. The first theory, reputational cheap talk, posits that forecasters endeavor to convince the market that they are well informed. The market evaluates their forecasting talent on the basis of the forecasts and the ......We develop and compare two theories of professional forecasters’ strategic behavior. The first theory, reputational cheap talk, posits that forecasters endeavor to convince the market that they are well informed. The market evaluates their forecasting talent on the basis of the forecasts...

  16. Forecasting digital microcircuit obsolescence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balwally, Nandakumar M.

    1991-03-01

    This report documents a procedure for forecasting digital microcircuit obsolescence at the Defense Electronics Supply Center, Dayton, OH. Obsolescence is caused by rapid advancement in digital technology and decrease in commercial demand while military demand still continues. In logistics parlance, parts obsolescence is known as a diminishing manufacturing source (DMS) problem. Continued supply of an obsolete DMS item is assured via substitution, alternate sourcing or a one time buy equal to the lifetime requirements of the item. Emulation is a recent alternative which explores the possibility of replacing obsolete digital microcircuits with state of the art devices which can be manufactured and supplied on demand. The report recommends use of a statistical model which forecasts DMS items from a population of presently non-DMS items belonging to obsolete digital microcircuit technologies. The items forecast by the model should be evaluated for their emulation potential.

  17. Wind power forecast

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pestana, Rui [Rede Electrica Nacional (REN), S.A., Lisboa (Portugal). Dept. Systems and Development System Operator; Trancoso, Ana Rosa; Delgado Domingos, Jose [Univ. Tecnica de Lisboa (Portugal). Seccao de Ambiente e Energia

    2012-07-01

    Accurate wind power forecast are needed to reduce integration costs in the electric grid caused by wind inherent variability. Currently, Portugal has a significant wind power penetration level and consequently the need to have reliable wind power forecasts at different temporal scales, including localized events such as ramps. This paper provides an overview of the methodologies used by REN to forecast wind power at national level, based on statistical and probabilistic combinations of NWP and measured data with the aim of improving accuracy of pure NWP. Results show that significant improvement can be achieved with statistical combination with persistence in the short-term and with probabilistic combination in the medium-term. NWP are also able to detect ramp events with 3 day notice to the operational planning. (orig.)

  18. Airport Capacity Forecast : Short-term forecasting of runway capacity

    OpenAIRE

    Hesselink, Henk; Nibourg, Joyce; D'Estampes, Ludovic; Lezaud, Pascal

    2014-01-01

    International audience Airports expect major benefits from increasing predictability of the operation. This paper will investigate the use of forecast information to determine forecast airport capacity, which will allow airport stakeholders to optimize the use of their resources. The focus will be on forecasting runway capacity, at most airports the major factor for the overall airport capacity. The possibility to model forecast runway capacity, based on probabilistic inputs, will be inves...

  19. Forecast of auroral activity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A new technique is developed to predict auroral activity based on a sample of over 9000 auroral sites identified in global auroral images obtained by an ultraviolet imager on the NASA Polar satellite during a 6-month period. Four attributes of auroral activity sites are utilized in forecasting, namely, the area, the power, and the rates of change in area and power. This new technique is quite accurate, as indicated by the high true skill scores for forecasting three different levels of auroral dissipation during the activity lifetime. The corresponding advanced warning time ranges from 22 to 79 min from low to high dissipation levels

  20. Route based forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zuurendonk, I. W.; Wokke, M. J. J.

    2009-09-01

    Road surface temperatures can differ several degrees on a very short distance due to local effects. In order to get more insight in the local temperature differences and to develop safer gritting routes, Meteogroup has developed a system for route based temperature forecasting. The standard version of the road model is addressed to forecast road surface temperature and condition for a specific location. This model consists of two parts. First a physical part, based on the energy balance equations. The second part of the model performs a statistical correction on the calculated physical road surface temperature. The road model is able to create a forecast for one specific location. From infrared measurements, we know that large local differences in road surface temperature exist on a route. Differences can be up to 5 degrees Celsius over a distance of several hundreds of meters. Based on those measurements, the idea came up to develop a system that forecasts road surface temperature and condition for an entire route: route based forecasting. The route is split up in sections with equal properties. For each section a temperature and condition will be calculated. The main factors that influence the road surface temperature are modelled in this forecasting system: •The local weather conditions: temperature, dew point temperature, wind, precipitation, weather type, cloudiness. •The sky view: A very sheltered place will receive less radiation during daytime and emit less radiation during nighttime. For a very open spot, the effects are reversed. •The solar view: A road section with trees on the southern side, will receive less solar radiation during daytime than a section with tress on the southern side. The route based forecast shows by means of a clear Google Maps presentation which sections will be slippery at what time of the coming night. The final goal of this type of forecast, is to make dynamical gritting possible: a variable salt amount and a different

  1. Projected Applications of a "Weather in a Box" Computing System at the NASA Short-Term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jedlovec, Gary J.; Molthan, Andrew; Zavodsky, Bradley T.; Case, Jonathan L.; LaFontaine, Frank J.; Srikishen, Jayanthi

    2010-01-01

    The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition Center (SPoRT)'s new "Weather in a Box" resources will provide weather research and forecast modeling capabilities for real-time application. Model output will provide additional forecast guidance and research into the impacts of new NASA satellite data sets and software capabilities. By combining several research tools and satellite products, SPoRT can generate model guidance that is strongly influenced by unique NASA contributions.

  2. The Forecasting Mantra: A Holistic Approach to Forecasting and Planning

    OpenAIRE

    Alec Finney; Martin Joseph

    2009-01-01

    Applying decades of experience in pharmaceutical forecasting, Alec Finney and Martin Joseph offer a template for steering the forecasting and planning process through organizational pitfalls to a successful outcome. Some lessons were learned the hard way; but aren't these lessons the most convincing? Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2009

  3. Forecasting Housing Approvals in Australia: Do Forecasters Herd?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stadtmann, Georg; Pierdzioch; Rülke

    2012-01-01

    Price trends in housing markets may reflect herding of market participants. A natural question is whether such herding, to the extent that it occurred, reflects herding in forecasts of professional forecasters. Using more than 6,000 forecasts of housing approvals for Australia, we did not find...

  4. La compañía del asiento y la guerra de la oreja de Jenkins: sus causas económicas y algunos aspectos contables relacionados

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rafael Donoso Anes

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available Por el tratado de Utrecht de 1713 el Asiento de esclavos pasaría a manos de Inglaterra, cuya soberana concedería su desarrollo práctico a la Compañía del Mar del Sur, la cual, con muchos altibajos, lo conservaría hasta la denominada Guerra de la Oreja de Jenkins o guerra del Asiento que estalló en 1739, enfrentando a la corona española y británica durante un período de casi diez años, hasta la paz de Aquisgrán de 1748 y que desembocaría, en 1750, en un tratado particular con Inglaterra que llevaría a la culminación definitiva del Asiento. En relación con este tema hay un aspecto, apenas reconocido hasta ahora en otros trabajos de investigación históricos y que se refiere al importante papel que desempeñó en el desenvolvimiento del Asiento la contabilidad, o mejor las cuentas que, de forma reiterada, se solicitaban a la Compañía del Mar de Sur por parte de la Corona española, en cuyo negocio participaba con una cuarta parte y que, por el articulado del Asiento, estaba la Compañía obligada a presentar periódicamente. Este conflicto de carácter contable se unió a otros muchos que, finalmente, desembocaron, como tendremos ocasión de analizar, en la denominada “Guerra de la Oreja de Jenkins” en 1739, conflicto que ha sido analizado por algunos historiadores, entre los que destacamos a Béthencourt Massieu (1989 y 1998 por ser de los pocos que reconocen que, a las causas políticas y diplomáticas que promovieron los conflictos entre las dos naciones, hay que añadir “el de las frecuentes peticiones de cuentas por Felipe V y el pago de sus beneficios conforme a los plazos señalados por los tratados” (1998, p. 184.En este trabajo de investigación analizamos algunas de las causas que motivaron el conflicto entre ambas naciones, poniendo un énfasis especial en los aspectos económicos y contables derivados de las relaciones comerciales e intereses económicos que la monarquía española tenía en el Asiento de

  5. Challenges of operational river forecasting

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pagano, T.C.; Wood, A.W.; Ramos, M.H.; Cloke, H.L.; Pappenbreger, F.; Verkade, J.S.; et al.

    2014-01-01

    Skillful and timely streamflow forecasts are critically important to water managers and emergency protection services. To provide these forecasts, hydrologists must predict the behavior of complex coupled human–natural systems using incomplete and uncertain information and imperfect models. Moreover

  6. Effective Feature Preprocessing for Time Series Forecasting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhao, Junhua; Dong, Zhaoyang; Xu, Zhao

    2006-01-01

    Time series forecasting is an important area in data mining research. Feature preprocessing techniques have significant influence on forecasting accuracy, therefore are essential in a forecasting model. Although several feature preprocessing techniques have been applied in time series forecasting...

  7. Effective Feature Preprocessing for Time Series Forecasting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhao, Junhua; Dong, Zhaoyang; Xu, Zhao

    Time series forecasting is an important area in data mining research. Feature preprocessing techniques have significant influence on forecasting accuracy, therefore are essential in a forecasting model. Although several feature preprocessing techniques have been applied in time series forecasting...

  8. Revenue Forecasts as Performance Targets

    OpenAIRE

    Stephan Danninger

    2005-01-01

    Budget revenue forecasts should be best estimates of expected receipts. Often they are not. This paper analyzes the rationale for overstated revenue forecasts and derives conditions for intentional biases. A theoretical model demonstrates that overstated revenue forecasts can be the result of the government's attempt to boost unobserved revenue collection effort. If positive forecast errors are costly and undermine public credibility of budget expenditure plans, the reverse outcome is possibl...

  9. Forecasting inflation in Asian economies

    OpenAIRE

    Liew, Freddy

    2012-01-01

    This paper surveys the recent literature on inflation forecasting and conducts an extensive empirical analysis on forecasting inflation in Singapore, Japan, South Korea and Hong Kong paying particular attention to whether the inflation-markup theory can help to forecast inflation. We first review the relative performance of different predictors in forecasting h-quarter ahead inflation using single equations. These models include the autoregressive model and bivariate Philips curve models. The...

  10. Ionization box type radiation detector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    An ionization box for monitoring radiation rays, a first amplification circuit of a multi-stage amplification circuit employing a MOS type FET as an initial stage amplification device, a second amplification circuit employing a junction type FET as an initial stage amplification device, a first change-over switch for switching ionization current depending on input signals, a second change-over switch for switching output signals, and a signal level discrimination circuit are constituted integrally. When radiation dose rate is low, the ionization current is inputted to the first amplification circuit and outputted as a radiation ray monitor signal and, when the radiation dose rate is increased to higher than a predetermined value, the ionization current is inputted to the second amplification circuit and outputted as a radiation ray monitor signal. That is, monitoring accuracy is high when the ionization current is low since the MOS type FET of high input impedance is used. If the ionization current is higher than a predetermined value, there is no worry that the detection becomes impossible since the junction type FET having less worry of causing characteristic change due to high radiation dose rate is used. Accordingly, ionization box type monitor at a high monitoring reliability can be obtained. (N.H.)

  11. Improving operational plume forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balcerak, Ernie

    2012-04-01

    Forecasting how plumes of particles, such as radioactive particles from a nuclear disaster, will be transported and dispersed in the atmosphere is an important but computationally challenging task. During the Fukushima nuclear disaster in Japan, operational plume forecasts were produced each day, but as the emissions continued, previous emissions were not included in the simulations used for forecasts because it became impractical to rerun the simulations each day from the beginning of the accident. Draxler and Rolph examine whether it is possible to improve plume simulation speed and flexibility as conditions and input data change. The authors use a method known as a transfer coefficient matrix approach that allows them to simulate many radionuclides using only a few generic species for the computation. Their simulations work faster by dividing the computation into separate independent segments in such a way that the most computationally time consuming pieces of the calculation need to be done only once. This makes it possible to provide real-time operational plume forecasts by continuously updating the previous simulations as new data become available. They tested their method using data from the Fukushima incident to show that it performed well. (Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres, doi:10.1029/2011JD017205, 2012)

  12. Forecasting Inflation in Indonesia

    OpenAIRE

    Uma Ramakrishnan; Athanasios Vamvakidis

    2002-01-01

    A reliable inflation-forecasting model is central for a sound monetary policy framework. In this paper, we study the domestic and international transmission effects on inflation in Indonesia and analyze the possible leading indicators of inflation. We identify the exchange rate, foreign inflation, and monetary growth as the main variables with a significant predictive power for inflation in Indonesia.

  13. Reference class forecasting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Flyvbjerg, Bent

    Underbudgettering og budgetoverskridelser forekommer i et flertal af større bygge- og anlægsprojekter. Problemet skyldes optimisme og/eller strategisk misinformation i budgetteringsprocessen. Reference class forecasting (RCF) er en prognosemetode, som er udviklet for at reducere eller eliminere...

  14. Are Market Forecasts Rational?

    OpenAIRE

    Mishkin, Frederic S.

    1980-01-01

    This paper conducts tests of the rationality of both inflation and short-term interest rate forecasts in the bond market. These tests are developed with the theory of efficient markets and make use of security price data to infer information on market expectations.

  15. Forecasting of superconducting compounds

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In forecasting new superconducting intermetallic compounds of the A15 and Mo3Se types most promising from the viewpoint of high critical temperature Tsub(c), high critical magnetic fields Hsub(c), and high critical currents and in estimating their transition temperature it is proposed to apply cybernetic methods of computer learning

  16. Forecasters' Objectives and Strategies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Marinovic, Iván; Ottaviani, Marco; Sørensen, Peter Norman

    2013-01-01

    This chapter develops a unified modeling framework for analyzing the strategic behavior of forecasters. The theoretical model encompasses reputational objectives, competition for the best accuracy, and bias. Also drawing from the extensive lit- erature on analysts, we review the empirical evidence...

  17. F-box proteins in flowering plants

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2002-01-01

    In eukaryotes, the ubiquitin-mediated protein degradation pathway has been shown to control several key biological processes such as cell division, development, metabolism and immune response. F-box proteins, as a part of SCF (Skp1-Cullin (or Cdc53)-F-box) complex, functioned by interacting with substrate proteins, leading to their subsequent degradation by the 26S proteasome. To date, several F-box proteins identified in Arabidopsis and Antirrhinum have been shown to play important roles in auxin signal transduction, floral organ formation, flowering and leaf senescence. Arabidopsis genome sequence analysis revealed that it encodes over 1000 predicted F-box proteins accounting for about 5% of total predicted proteins. These results indicate that the ubiquitin-mediated protein degradation involving the F-box proteins is an important mechanism controlling plant gene expression. Here, we review the known F-box proteins and their functionsin flowering plants.

  18. Understanding Recommender Dynamics driving Box Office Revenues

    CERN Document Server

    Yeung, C H; Jin, C -H

    2010-01-01

    We introduce a simple model to investigate the underlying dynamics driving movie box office. Without an explicit reliance on time, the box office of movies evolves naturally by movie-movie competition through reviews listed on a centralized recommender system. A simple mean-field approximation is employed which assumes an average interaction between the competing movies, and describes the interesting box office dynamics. Box office hits are found for movies with quality beyond a critical value, leading to booms in gross box office. Such critical value is dependent on the reviewing behaviors, intention of movie goers for new movies, and the quality of the peer competing movies. Finally we compare our analytical results with simulations and real system and obtain qualitative agreements, suggesting the present model in describing the fundamental dynamics of box office.

  19. FORECASTING CROATIAN STOCK MARKET INDEX: CROBEX

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zoran Ivanovic

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Forecasting stock returns is considered one of the hardest tasks for every potential investor. This paper attempts to predict the movement of Croatian stock market index Crobex on Zagreb Stock Exchange. Main aim of this paper was to empirically examine the best univariate Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model for forecasting. This research examined ARIMA (p;d;q model on weekly closed prices of Crobex from 01/01/2011 to 01/01/2013. First it was necessary to meet the stationary condition. While checking the conditions of stationarity, data series were observed by ACF, PACF plots and by Ljung– Box Q statistic and Augmented Dickey–Fuller test statistic. After differencing, statistic showed that the data is stationary and the next step was to find the best ARIMA model. The most important criteria that were used are: R-squared, Adjusted R-squared, Akaike information criterion, Schwarz criterion and Hannan–Quinn information criterion. After checking the exceptionally large number of models it was found the model that suits best, according to the criteria.

  20. Metod of black box and their us

    OpenAIRE

    Novotný, Martin

    2013-01-01

    This thesis on a topic "black-box method and its use" deals with the description of the method of solving problematic tasks as a black box and its use in teaching. Using the theory of systems and cybernetics disciplines, especially cybernetic-pedagogy attempts to describe this method so that it is as efficient as possible and to maximize the benefits for students. Besides, the implementation of selected black box that will be suitable and used for teaching subjects electrotechnics, automatiza...

  1. Improving Forecasting Accuracy in the Case of Intermittent Demand Forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daisuke Takeyasu

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available In making forecasting, there are many kinds of data. Stationary time series data are relatively easy to make forecasting but random data are very difficult in its execution for forecasting. Intermittent data are often seen in industries. But it is rather difficult to make forecasting in general. In recent years, the needs for intermittent demand forecasting are increasing because of the constraints of strict Supply Chain Management. How to improve the forecasting accuracy is an important issue. There are many researches made on this. But there are rooms for improvement. In this paper, a new method for cumulative forecasting method is proposed. The data is cumulated and to this cumulated time series, the following method is applied to improve the forecasting accuracy. Trend removing by the combination of linear and 2nd order non-linear function and 3rd order non-linear function is executed to the production data of X-ray image intensifier tube device and Diagnostic X-ray image processing apparatus. The forecasting result is compared with those of the non-cumulative forecasting method. The new method shows that it is useful for the forecasting of intermittent demand data. The effectiveness of this method should be examined in various cases.

  2. Repackaging SRS Black Box TRU Waste

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Historically, large items of TRU Waste, which were too large to be packaged in drums for disposal have been packaged in various sizes of custom made plywood boxes at the Savannah River Site (SRS), for many years. These boxes were subsequently packaged into large steel ''Black Boxes'' for storage at SRS, pending availability of Characterization and Certification capability, to facilitate disposal of larger items of TRU Waste. There are approximately 107 Black Boxes in inventory at SRS, each measuring some 18' x 12' x 7', and weighing up to 45,000 lbs. These Black Boxes have been stored since the early 1980s. The project to repackage this waste into Standard Large Boxes (SLBs), Standard Waste Boxes (SWB) and Ten Drum Overpacks (TDOP), for subsequent characterization and WIPP disposal, commenced in FY04. To date, 10 Black Boxes have been repackaged, resulting in 40 SLB-2's, and 37 B25 overpack boxes, these B25's will be overpacked in SLB-2's prior to shipping to WIPP. This paper will describe experience to date from this project

  3. Interchangeable breech lock for glove boxes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lemonds, David Preston

    2015-11-24

    A breech lock for a glove box is provided that may be used to transfer one or more items into the glove box. The breech lock can be interchangeably installed in place of a plug, glove, or other device in a port or opening of a glove box. Features are provided to aid the removal of items from the breech lock by a gloved operator. The breech lock can be reused or, if needed, can be replaced with a plug, glove, or other device at the port or opening of the glove box.

  4. Model Equations: "Black Box" Reconstruction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bezruchko, Boris P.; Smirnov, Dmitry A.

    Black box reconstruction is both the most difficult and the most tempting modelling problem when any prior information about an appropriate model structure is lacking. An intriguing thing is that a model capable of reproducing an observed behaviour or predicting further evolution should be obtained only from an observed time series, i.e. "from nothing" at first sight. Chances for a success are not large. Even more so, a "good" model would become a valuable tool to characterise an object and understand its dynamics. Lack of prior information causes one to utilise universal model structures, e.g. artificial neural networks, radial basis functions and algebraic polynomials are included in the right-hand sides of dynamical model equations. Such models are often multi-dimensional and involve quite many free parameters.

  5. Load forecasting for supermarket refrigeration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bacher, Peder; Madsen, Henrik; Aalborg Nielsen, Henrik

    This report presents a study of models for forecasting the load for supermarket refrigeration. The data used for building the forecasting models consists of load measurements, local climate measurements and weather forecasts. The load measurements are from a supermarket located in a village in...... Denmark. The load for refrigeration is the sum of all cabinets in the supermarket, both low and medium temperature cabinets, and spans a period of one year. As input to the forecasting models the ambient temperature observed near the supermarket together with weather forecasts are used. Every hour the...... hourly load for refrigeration for the following 42 hours is forecasted. The forecast models are adaptive linear time-series models which are fitted with a computationally efficient recursive least squares scheme. The dynamic relations between the inputs and the load is modeled by simple transfer...

  6. Forecasting potential crises

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Recently, the Trend Analysis Program (TAP) of the American Council of Life Insurance commissioned the Futures Group of Glastonbury, Connecticut, to examine the potential for large-scale catastrophic events in the near future. TAP was specifically concerned with five potential crises: the warming of the earth's atmosphere, the water shortage, the collapse of the physical infrastructure, the global financial crisis, and the threat of nuclear war. We are often unprepared to take action; in these cases, we lose an advantage we might have otherwise had. This is the whole idea behind forecasting: to foresee possibilities and to project how we can respond. If we are able to create forecasts against which we can test policy options and choices, we may have the luxury of adopting policies ahead of events. Rather than simply fighting fires, we have the option of creating a future more to our choosing. Short descriptions of these five potential crises and, in some cases, possible solutions are presented

  7. Forecasting Infectious Disease Outbreaks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shaman, J. L.

    2015-12-01

    Dynamic models of infectious disease systems abound and are used to study the epidemiological characteristics of disease outbreaks, the ecological mechanisms affecting transmission, and the suitability of various control and intervention strategies. The dynamics of disease transmission are non-linear and consequently difficult to forecast. Here, we describe combined model-inference frameworks developed for the prediction of infectious diseases. We show that accurate and reliable predictions of seasonal influenza outbreaks can be made using a mathematical model representing population-level influenza transmission dynamics that has been recursively optimized using ensemble data assimilation techniques and real-time estimates of influenza incidence. Operational real-time forecasts of influenza and other infectious diseases have been and are currently being generated.

  8. Foresight and Forecasts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kilbourn, Kyle; Bay, Marie Brøndum

    In predicting areas of growth, public innovation projects may rely on optimistic visions of technology still in development as a way of ensuring novelty for funding. This paper explores what happens when forecasts of robotic technology meets the practice of sterile supply in a preliminary stage of...... excitement, the most sustainable innovation stems from the dialogical interaction between practitioner foresight and societal forecasting, requiring continued development of participatory design as it moves into new contexts....... an ongoing project. We examine the nature of participation in design on three levels: in the sterilization ward, this particular project and society in general. From our case, we suggest that while innovation projects proceeding from a certain technological perspective can succeed at building...

  9. Forecasting Turbine Icing Events

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Davis, Neil; Hahmann, Andrea N.; Clausen, Niels-Erik;

    In this study, we present a method for forecasting icing events. The method is validated at two European wind farms in with known icing events. The icing model used was developed using current ice accretion methods, and newly developed ablation algorithms. The model is driven by inputs from the WRF...... mesoscale model, allowing for both climatological estimates of icing and short term icing forecasts. The current model was able to detect periods of icing reasonably well at the warmer site. However at the cold climate site, the model was not able to remove ice quickly enough leading to large ice...... accumulations, which have not been seen in observations. In addition to the model evaluation we were able to investigate the potential occurrence of ice induced power loss at two wind parks in Europe using observed data. We found that the potential loss during an icing event is large even when the turbine...

  10. Forecasting Turbine Icing Events

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Davis, Neil; Hahmann, Andrea N.; Clausen, Niels-Erik;

    2012-01-01

    In this study, we present a method for forecasting icing events. The method is validated at two European wind farms in with known icing events. The icing model used was developed using current ice accretion methods, and newly developed ablation algorithms. The model is driven by inputs from the WRF...... mesoscale model, allowing for both climatological estimates of icing and short term icing forecasts. The current model was able to detect periods of icing reasonably well at the warmer site. However at the cold climate site, the model was not able to remove ice quickly enough leading to large ice...... accumulations, which have not been seen in observations. In addition to the model evaluation we were able to investigate the potential occurrence of ice induced power loss at two wind parks in Europe using observed data. We found that the potential loss during an icing event is large even when the turbine...

  11. Forecasting oilfield economic performance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper presents a general method for forecasting oilfield economic performance that integrates cost data with operational, reservoir, and financial information. Practices are developed for determining economic limits for an oil field and its components. The economic limits of marginal wells and the role of underground competition receive special attention. Also examined is the influence of oil prices on operating costs. Examples illustrate application of these concepts. Categorization of costs for historical tracking and projections is recommended

  12. Forecasting in marketing

    OpenAIRE

    Franses, Philip Hans

    2004-01-01

    textabstractWith the advent of advanced data collection techniques, there is an increased interest in using econometric models to support decisions in marketing. Due to the sometimes specific nature of variables in marketing, the discipline uses econometric models that are rarely, if ever, used elsewhere. This chapter deals with techniques to derive forecasts from these models. Due to the intrinsic non-linear nature of these models, these techniques draw heavliy on simulation techniques.

  13. Forecasting Personal Shopping Behavior

    OpenAIRE

    Yeh Hsiaoping

    2014-01-01

    Data mining (DM) techniques make efforts to discovery knowledge from data. Aiming to finding patterns, association rule (AR) computing algorithms seem to be one to be adopted on variety applications. To be originally claimed for best analyzing customer shopping goods in baskets, Apriori, the first AR algorithm, has been discussed and modified the most by researchers. This study adopts Apriori algorithm to forecast individual customer shopping behavior. This study finds that customer shopping ...

  14. Unification of box shapes in molecular simulations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bekker, H.

    1997-01-01

    In molecular simulations with periodic boundary conditions the computational box may have five different shapes: triclinic; the hexagonal prism; two types of dodecahedrons; and the truncated octahedron. In this article, we show that every molecular simulation, formulated in one of these boxes, can b

  15. Black-Box Search by Unbiased Variation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lehre, Per Kristian; Witt, Carsten

    2012-01-01

    The complexity theory for black-box algorithms, introduced by Droste, Jansen, and Wegener (Theory Comput. Syst. 39:525–544, 2006), describes common limits on the efficiency of a broad class of randomised search heuristics. There is an obvious trade-off between the generality of the black-box model...

  16. Cosmetic Foot Surgery: Fashion's Pandora's Box

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Fashion’s Pandora’s Box? A A A | Print | Share Cosmetic Foot Surgery: Fashion’s Pandora’s Box? Foot and ankle ... extreme and imprudent as it may sound, the cosmetic surgery craze isn't just for faces anymore- ...

  17. Modern biotechnology Panacea or new Pandora's box?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tramper, J.; Yang Zhu, Yang

    2011-01-01

    According to Greek mythology Pandora was sent down to earth upon the orders of Zeus. She was given a mysterious box which she was not allowed to open. However, Pandora was very curious and when she arrived on earth she couldn?t help taking a peek inside the box. She saw that it was filled with gifts

  18. Box Plots in the Australian Curriculum

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watson, Jane M.

    2012-01-01

    This article compares the definition of "box plot" as used in the "Australian Curriculum: Mathematics" with other definitions used in the education community; describes the difficulties students experience when dealing with box plots; and discusses the elaboration that is necessary to enable teachers to develop the knowledge necessary to use them…

  19. Seismic forecast using geostatistics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The main idea of this research direction consists in the special way of constructing a new type of mathematical function as being a correlation between a computed statistical quantity and another physical quantity. This type of function called 'position function' was taken over by the authors of this study in the field of seismology with the hope of solving - at least partially - the difficult problem of seismic forecast. The geostatistic method of analysis focuses on the process of energy accumulation in a given seismic area, completing this analysis by a so-called loading function. This function - in fact a temporal function - describes the process of energy accumulation during a seismic cycle from a given seismic area. It was possible to discover a law of evolution of the seismic cycles that was materialized in a so-called characteristic function. This special function will help us to forecast the magnitude and the occurrence moment of the largest earthquake in the analysed area. Since 2000, the authors have been evolving to a new stage of testing: real - time analysis, in order to verify the quality of the method. There were five large earthquakes forecasts. (authors)

  20. Statistical methods for forecasting

    CERN Document Server

    Abraham, Bovas

    2009-01-01

    The Wiley-Interscience Paperback Series consists of selected books that have been made more accessible to consumers in an effort to increase global appeal and general circulation. With these new unabridged softcover volumes, Wiley hopes to extend the lives of these works by making them available to future generations of statisticians, mathematicians, and scientists."This book, it must be said, lives up to the words on its advertising cover: ''Bridging the gap between introductory, descriptive approaches and highly advanced theoretical treatises, it provides a practical, intermediate level discussion of a variety of forecasting tools, and explains how they relate to one another, both in theory and practice.'' It does just that!"-Journal of the Royal Statistical Society"A well-written work that deals with statistical methods and models that can be used to produce short-term forecasts, this book has wide-ranging applications. It could be used in the context of a study of regression, forecasting, and time series ...

  1. Land-Breeze Forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Case, Jonathan L.; Wheeler, Mark M.; Merceret, Francis J. (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    The nocturnal land breeze at the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) is both operationally significant and challenging to forecast. The occurrence and timing of land breezes impact low-level winds, atmospheric stability, low temperatures, and fog development. Accurate predictions of the land breeze are critical for toxic material dispersion forecasts associated with space launch missions, since wind direction and low-level stability can change noticeably with the onset of a land breeze. This report presents a seven-year observational study of land breezes over east-central Florida from 1995 to 2001. This comprehensive analysis was enabled by the high-resolution tower observations over KSC/CCAFS. Five-minute observations of winds, temperature, and moisture along with 9 15-MHz Doppler Radar Wind Profiler data were used to analyze specific land-breeze cases, while the tower data were used to construct a composite climatology. Utilities derived from this climatology were developed to assist forecasters in determining the land-breeze occurrence, timing, and movement based on predicted meteorological conditions.

  2. 49 CFR 178.515 - Standards for reconstituted wood boxes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 2 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Standards for reconstituted wood boxes. 178.515... wood boxes. (a) The identification code for a reconstituted wood box is 4F. (b) Construction requirements for reconstituted wood boxes are as follows: (1) The walls of boxes must be made of...

  3. Evolving forecasting classifications and applications in health forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Soyiri IN

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Ireneous N Soyiri1,2, Daniel D Reidpath11Global Public Health, JCSMHS, MONASH University, Selangor, Malaysia; 2School of Public Health, University of Ghana, Legon, Accra, GhanaAbstract: Health forecasting forewarns the health community about future health situations and disease episodes so that health systems can better allocate resources and manage demand. The tools used for developing and measuring the accuracy and validity of health forecasts commonly are not defined although they are usually adapted forms of statistical procedures. This review identifies previous typologies used in classifying the forecasting methods commonly used in forecasting health conditions or situations. It then discusses the strengths and weaknesses of these methods and presents the choices available for measuring the accuracy of health-forecasting models, including a note on the discrepancies in the modes of validation.Keywords: health forecast, health data, electronic health records, accuracy, cross validation, method, strengths and limitations

  4. EU pharmaceutical expenditure forecast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Urbinati, Duccio; Rémuzat, Cécile; Kornfeld, Åsa; Vataire, Anne-Lise; Cetinsoy, Laurent; Aballéa, Samuel; Mzoughi, Olfa; Toumi, Mondher

    2014-01-01

    Background and Objectives With constant incentives for healthcare payers to contain their pharmaceutical budgets, forecasting has become critically important. Some countries have, for instance, developed pharmaceutical horizon scanning units. The objective of this project was to build a model to assess the net effect of the entrance of new patented medicinal products versus medicinal products going off-patent, with a defined forecast horizon, on selected European Union (EU) Member States’ pharmaceutical budgets. This model took into account population ageing, as well as current and future country-specific pricing, reimbursement, and market access policies (the project was performed for the European Commission; see http://ec.europa.eu/health/healthcare/key_documents/index_en.htm). Method In order to have a representative heterogeneity of EU Member States, the following countries were selected for the analysis: France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Poland, Portugal, and the United Kingdom. A forecasting period of 5 years (2012–2016) was chosen to assess the net pharmaceutical budget impact. A model for generics and biosimilars was developed for each country. The model estimated a separate and combined effect of the direct and indirect impacts of the patent cliff. A second model, estimating the sales development and the risk of development failure, was developed for new drugs. New drugs were reviewed individually to assess their clinical potential and translate it into commercial potential. The forecast was carried out according to three perspectives (healthcare public payer, society, and manufacturer), and several types of distribution chains (retail, hospital, and combined retail and hospital). Probabilistic and deterministic sensitivity analyses were carried out. Results According to the model, all countries experienced drug budget reductions except Poland (+€41 million). Savings were expected to be the highest in the United Kingdom (−€9,367 million), France

  5. Analysing UK real estate market forecast disagreement

    OpenAIRE

    McAllister, Patrick (Hrsg.); Newell, G.; Matysiak, George

    2005-01-01

    Given the significance of forecasting in real estate investment decisions, this paper investigates forecast uncertainty and disagreement in real estate market forecasts. Using the Investment Property Forum (IPF) quarterly survey amongst UK independent real estate forecasters, these real estate forecasts are compared with actual real estate performance to assess a number of real estate forecasting issues in the UK over 1999-2004, including real estate forecast error, bias and consensus. The r...

  6. Projected Applications of a "Climate in a Box" Computing System at the NASA Short-Term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jedlovec, Gary J.; Molthan, Andrew L.; Zavodsky, Bradley; Case, Jonathan L.; LaFontaine, Frank J.

    2010-01-01

    The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center focuses on the transition of unique observations and research capabilities to the operational weather community, with a goal of improving short-term forecasts on a regional scale. Advances in research computing have lead to "Climate in a Box" systems, with hardware configurations capable of producing high resolution, near real-time weather forecasts, but with footprints, power, and cooling requirements that are comparable to desktop systems. The SPoRT Center has developed several capabilities for incorporating unique NASA research capabilities and observations with real-time weather forecasts. Planned utilization includes the development of a fully-cycled data assimilation system used to drive 36-48 hour forecasts produced by the NASA Unified version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model (NU-WRF). The horsepower provided by the "Climate in a Box" system is expected to facilitate the assimilation of vertical profiles of temperature and moisture provided by the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) aboard the NASA Aqua satellite. In addition, the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instruments aboard NASA s Aqua and Terra satellites provide high-resolution sea surface temperatures and vegetation characteristics. The development of MODIS normalized difference vegetation index (NVDI) composites for use within the NASA Land Information System (LIS) will assist in the characterization of vegetation, and subsequently the surface albedo and processes related to soil moisture. Through application of satellite simulators, NASA satellite instruments can be used to examine forecast model errors in cloud cover and other characteristics. Through the aforementioned application of the "Climate in a Box" system and NU-WRF capabilities, an end goal is the establishment of a real-time forecast system that fully integrates modeling and analysis capabilities developed within the NASA SPo

  7. WIMAX TRAFFIC MODEL BASED ON TIME SERIES FOR FORECAST FUTURE VALUES OF TRAFFIC

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cesar Augusto Hernández Suarez

    2009-03-01

    Full Text Available El objetivo de esta investigación es demostrar que las series de tiempo son una excelente herramienta para el modelamiento de tráfico de datos en redes Wimax. Para lograr este objetivo se utilizó la metodología de Box-Jenkins, la cual se describe en este artículo. El modelamiento de tráfico Wimax a través de modelos correlacionados como las series de tiempo permiten ajustar gran parte de la dinámica del comportamiento de los datos en una ecuación y con base en esto estimar valores futuros de tráfico. Lo anterior es una ventaja para la planeación de cobertura, reservación de recursos y la realización de un control más oportuno y eficiente en forma integrada a diferentes niveles de la jerarquía funcional de la red de datos Wimax. Como resultado de la investigación se obtuvo un modelo de tráfico ARIMA de orden 18, el cual realizó pronósticos de tráfico con valores del error cuadrático medio relativamente pequeños, para un periodo de 10 días.

  8. Forecasts: uncertain, inaccurate and biased?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nicolaisen, Morten Skou; Ambrasaite, Inga; Salling, Kim Bang

    2012-01-01

    construction costs, which account for the majority of total project costs. Second are the forecasts of travel time savings, which account for the majority of total project benefits. The latter of these is, inter alia, determined by forecasts of travel demand, which we shall use as a proxy for the forecasting......Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA) is the dominating methodology for appraisal of transport infrastructure projects across the globe. In order to adequately assess the costs and benefits of such projects two types of forecasts are crucial to the validity of the appraisal. First are the forecasts of...... accuracy of project benefits. This paper presents results from an on-going research project on uncertainties in transport project evaluation (UNITE) that find forecasts of demand to be not only uncertain, but at times also highly inaccurate and often displaying a concerning degree of bias. Demand for road...

  9. Improvements relating to glove boxes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    It is stated that radiation problems with glove boxes can only be partly overcome by adding shielding to their working faces, since about 25% of the working face may be taken up with glove ports at which the only shielding provided is that of the glove. A glove port cover is here described, mountable above the port, comprising a number of flaps of lead-loaded flexible material. The flaps can be pushed aside by hand to permit access to a glove fixed in the port, but overlap to close off the port when the hand is withdrawn. The lead loaded flexible material preferably has a natural or synthetic rubber base. Constructional details are given. Only the flaps need to be lead-loaded, and to facilitate manufacture and handling the surfaces of the cover are preferably lead-free. Three flaps can suffice, but five or six are preferred. For mounting purposes a cover may have beading at its periphery for clamped location in a groove round the glove port. (U.K.)

  10. Operational hydrological forecasting in Bavaria. Part I: Forecast uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ehret, U.; Vogelbacher, A.; Moritz, K.; Laurent, S.; Meyer, I.; Haag, I.

    2009-04-01

    In Bavaria, operational flood forecasting has been established since the disastrous flood of 1999. Nowadays, forecasts based on rainfall information from about 700 raingauges and 600 rivergauges are calculated and issued for nearly 100 rivergauges. With the added experience of the 2002 and 2005 floods, awareness grew that the standard deterministic forecast, neglecting the uncertainty associated with each forecast is misleading, creating a false feeling of unambiguousness. As a consequence, a system to identify, quantify and communicate the sources and magnitude of forecast uncertainty has been developed, which will be presented in part I of this study. In this system, the use of ensemble meteorological forecasts plays a key role which will be presented in part II. Developing the system, several constraints stemming from the range of hydrological regimes and operational requirements had to be met: Firstly, operational time constraints obviate the variation of all components of the modeling chain as would be done in a full Monte Carlo simulation. Therefore, an approach was chosen where only the most relevant sources of uncertainty were dynamically considered while the others were jointly accounted for by static error distributions from offline analysis. Secondly, the dominant sources of uncertainty vary over the wide range of forecasted catchments: In alpine headwater catchments, typically of a few hundred square kilometers in size, rainfall forecast uncertainty is the key factor for forecast uncertainty, with a magnitude dynamically changing with the prevailing predictability of the atmosphere. In lowland catchments encompassing several thousands of square kilometers, forecast uncertainty in the desired range (usually up to two days) is mainly dependent on upstream gauge observation quality, routing and unpredictable human impact such as reservoir operation. The determination of forecast uncertainty comprised the following steps: a) From comparison of gauge

  11. Do Economic Restrictions Improve Forecasts?

    OpenAIRE

    Murphy, Elizabeth A.; Norwood, F. Bailey; Wohlgenant, Michael K.

    2003-01-01

    A previous study showed that imposing economic restrictions improves the forecasting ability of food demand systems, thus warranting their use even when they are rejected in-sample. This article evaluates whether this result is due to economic restrictions enhancing degrees of freedom or containing nonsample information. Results indicate that restrictions improve forecasting ability even when they are not derived from economic theory, but theoretical restrictions forecast best.

  12. Financial Signaling and Earnings Forecasts.

    OpenAIRE

    Iuliia Brushko

    2013-01-01

    This paper examines the extent to which financial signaling affects the analysts' and managers' forecast releases. The findings give evidence of heterogeneity of analysts' forecast errors between firms with strong financial indicators (high signal group), weak financial indicators (low signal group), and those with both positive and negative signals (mixed signal group). The paper further indicates that managers' forecast releases also depend on the type of the firm and that managers may try ...

  13. Challenges of operational river forecasting

    OpenAIRE

    T. C. Pagano; Wood, A.W.; Ramos, M.H.; H. L. Cloke; Pappenbreger, F.; Verkade, J. S.; et al, ...

    2014-01-01

    Skillful and timely streamflow forecasts are critically important to water managers and emergency protection services. To provide these forecasts, hydrologists must predict the behavior of complex coupled human–natural systems using incomplete and uncertain information and imperfect models. Moreover, operational predictions often integrate anecdotal information and unmodeled factors. Forecasting agencies face four key challenges: 1)making themost of available data, 2)making accurate predictio...

  14. Challenges of operational river forecasting

    OpenAIRE

    T. C. Pagano; Wood, A.W.; Ramos, M.H.; H. L. Cloke; Pappenberger, F.; Clark, M. P.; Cranston, M.; Kavetski, D.; T. Mathevet; Sorooshian, S; Verkade, J. S.

    2014-01-01

    Skillful and timely streamflow forecasts are critically important to water managers and emergency protection services. To provide these forecasts, hydrologists must predict the behavior of complex coupled human–natural systems using incomplete and uncertain information and imperfect models. Moreover, operational predictions often integrate anecdotal information and unmodeled factors. Forecasting agencies face four key challenges: 1) making the most of available data, 2) making accurate ...

  15. Can Econometrics Improve Economic Forecasting?

    OpenAIRE

    David F. Hendry; Michael P. Clements

    1994-01-01

    After reviewing the history of analyses of economic forecasting, the role of econometrics in improving economic forecasting is considered, building on CLEMENTS and HENDRY (1994a). The basis of the analysis is a world where model selection is difficult, no model coincides with the economic mechanism, and that mechanism is both non-stationary and evolves over time. On the constructive side, econometric analysis suggests ways of reducing each of the resulting five sources of forecast uncertainty...

  16. Earthquake forecasting and its verification

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. R. Holliday

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available No proven method is currently available for the reliable short time prediction of earthquakes (minutes to months. However, it is possible to make probabilistic hazard assessments for earthquake risk. In this paper we discuss a new approach to earthquake forecasting based on a pattern informatics (PI method which quantifies temporal variations in seismicity. The output, which is based on an association of small earthquakes with future large earthquakes, is a map of areas in a seismogenic region ('hotspots'' where earthquakes are forecast to occur in a future 10-year time span. This approach has been successfully applied to California, to Japan, and on a worldwide basis. Because a sharp decision threshold is used, these forecasts are binary--an earthquake is forecast either to occur or to not occur. The standard approach to the evaluation of a binary forecast is the use of the relative (or receiver operating characteristic (ROC diagram, which is a more restrictive test and less subject to bias than maximum likelihood tests. To test our PI method, we made two types of retrospective forecasts for California. The first is the PI method and the second is a relative intensity (RI forecast based on the hypothesis that future large earthquakes will occur where most smaller earthquakes have occurred in the recent past. While both retrospective forecasts are for the ten year period 1 January 2000 to 31 December 2009, we performed an interim analysis 5 years into the forecast. The PI method out performs the RI method under most circumstances.

  17. Load forecasting of supermarket refrigeration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Lisa Buth; Bacher, Peder; Madsen, Henrik;

    2016-01-01

    This paper presents a novel study of models for forecasting the electrical load for supermarket refrigeration. The data used for building the models consists of load measurements, local climate measurements and weather forecasts. The load measurements are from a supermarket located in a village in...... Denmark. Every hour the hourly electrical load for refrigeration is forecasted for the following 42 h. The forecast models are adaptive linear time series models. The model has two regimes; one for opening hours and one for closing hours, this is modeled by a regime switching model and two different...

  18. Solar Indices Forecasting Tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henney, Carl John; Shurkin, Kathleen; Arge, Charles; Hill, Frank

    2016-05-01

    Progress to forecast key space weather parameters using SIFT (Solar Indices Forecasting Tool) with the ADAPT (Air Force Data Assimilative Photospheric flux Transport) model is highlighted in this presentation. Using a magnetic flux transport model, ADAPT, we estimate the solar near-side field distribution that is used as input into empirical models for predicting F10.7(solar 10.7 cm, 2.8 GHz, radio flux), the Mg II core-to-wing ratio, and selected bands of solar far ultraviolet (FUV) and extreme ultraviolet (EUV) irradiance. Input to the ADAPT model includes the inferred photospheric magnetic field from the NISP ground-based instruments, GONG & VSM. Besides a status update regarding ADAPT and SIFT models, we will summarize the findings that: 1) the sum of the absolute value of strong magnetic fields, associated with sunspots, is shown to correlate well with the observed daily F10.7 variability (Henney et al. 2012); and 2) the sum of the absolute value of weak magnetic fields, associated with plage regions, is shown to correlate well with EUV and FUV irradiance variability (Henney et al. 2015). This work utilizes data produced collaboratively between Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL) and the National Solar Observatory (NSO). The ADAPT model development is supported by AFRL. The input data utilized by ADAPT is obtained by NISP (NSO Integrated Synoptic Program). NSO is operated by the Association of Universities for Research in Astronomy (AURA), Inc., under a cooperative agreement with the National Science Foundation (NSF). The 10.7 cm solar radio flux data service, utilized by the ADAPT/SIFT F10.7 forecasting model, is operated by the National Research Council of Canada and National Resources Canada, with the support of the Canadian Space Agency.

  19. Forecasting in Complex Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rundle, J. B.; Holliday, J. R.; Graves, W. R.; Turcotte, D. L.; Donnellan, A.

    2014-12-01

    Complex nonlinear systems are typically characterized by many degrees of freedom, as well as interactions between the elements. Interesting examples can be found in the areas of earthquakes and finance. In these two systems, fat tails play an important role in the statistical dynamics. For earthquake systems, the Gutenberg-Richter magnitude-frequency is applicable, whereas for daily returns for the securities in the financial markets are known to be characterized by leptokurtotic statistics in which the tails are power law. Very large fluctuations are present in both systems. In earthquake systems, one has the example of great earthquakes such as the M9.1, March 11, 2011 Tohoku event. In financial systems, one has the example of the market crash of October 19, 1987. Both were largely unexpected events that severely impacted the earth and financial systems systemically. Other examples include the M9.3 Andaman earthquake of December 26, 2004, and the Great Recession which began with the fall of Lehman Brothers investment bank on September 12, 2013. Forecasting the occurrence of these damaging events has great societal importance. In recent years, national funding agencies in a variety of countries have emphasized the importance of societal relevance in research, and in particular, the goal of improved forecasting technology. Previous work has shown that both earthquakes and financial crashes can be described by a common Landau-Ginzburg-type free energy model. These metastable systems are characterized by fat tail statistics near the classical spinodal. Correlations in these systems can grow and recede, but do not imply causation, a common source of misunderstanding. In both systems, a common set of techniques can be used to compute the probabilities of future earthquakes or crashes. In this talk, we describe the basic phenomenology of these systems and emphasize their similarities and differences. We also consider the problem of forecast validation and verification

  20. Packing a cake into a box

    KAUST Repository

    Skopenkov, Mikhail

    2011-05-01

    Given a triangular cake and a box in the shape of its mirror image, how can the cake be cut into a minimal number of pieces so that it can be put into the box? The cake has icing, so we are not allowed to put it into the box upside down. V. G. Boltyansky asked this question in 1977 and showed that three pieces always suffice. In this paper we provide examples of cakes that cannot be cut into two pieces to be put into the box. This shows that three is the answer to Boltyansky\\'s question. We also give examples of cakes which can be cut into two pieces. © THE MATHEMATICAL ASSOCIATION OF AMERICA.

  1. Spacer for supporting fuel element boxes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A spacer plate unit arranged externally on each side and at a predetermined level of a polygonal fuel element box for mutually supporting, with respect to one another, a plurality of the fuel element boxes forming a fuel element bundle, is formed of a first and a second spacer plate part each having the same length and the same width and being constituted of unlike first and second materials, respectively. The first and second spacer plate parts of the several spacer plate units situated at the predetermined level are arranged in an alternating continuous series when viewed in the peripheral direction of the fuel element box, so that any two spacer plate units belonging to face-to-face oriented sides of two adjoining fuel element boxes in the fuel element bundle define interfaces of unlike materials

  2. Mystery Boxes, X Rays, and Radiology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomson, Norman

    2000-01-01

    Indicates the difficulties of teaching concepts beyond light and color and creating memorable learning experiences. Recommends sequential activities using the mystery box approach to explain how scientists and doctors use photon applications. (YDS)

  3. Packing a cake into a box

    CERN Document Server

    Skopenkov, Mikhail

    2010-01-01

    Given a cake in form of a triangle and a box that fits the mirror image of the cake, how to cut the cake into a minimal number of pieces so that it can be put into the box? The cake has an icing, so that we are not allowed to put it into the box upside down. V.G. Boltyansky asked this question in 1977 and showed that three pieces always suffice. In this paper we provide examples of cakes that cannot be cut into two pieces to put into the box. This shows that three is the answer to V.G. Boltyansky's question. Also we give examples of cakes which can be cut into two pieces.

  4. Decommissioning a tritium glove-box facility

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Folkers, C.L.; Homann, S.G.; Nicolosi, A.S.; Hanel, S.L.; King, W.C.

    1979-08-08

    A large glove-box facility for handling reactive metal tritides was decommissioned. Major sections of the glove box were decontaminated and disassembled for reuse at another tritium facility. To achieve the desired results, decontamnation required repeated washing, first with organic liquids, then with water and detergents. Worker protection was provided by simple ventilation combined with careful monitoring of the work areas and employees. Several innovative techniques are described.

  5. Decommissioning a tritium glove-box facility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A large glove-box facility for handling reactive metal tritides was decommissioned. Major sections of the glove box were decontaminated and disassembled for reuse at another tritium facility. To achieve the desired results, decontamnation required repeated washing, first with organic liquids, then with water and detergents. Worker protection was provided by simple ventilation combined with careful monitoring of the work areas and employees. Several innovative techniques are described

  6. SET Backaction on the Single Electron Box

    OpenAIRE

    Turek, B. A.; Lehnert, K. W.; Clerk, A.; Gunnarsson, D.; Bladh, K.; Delsing, P.; Schoelkopf, R. J.

    2005-01-01

    We report an experimental observation of the backaction of a Single Electron Transistor (SET) measuring the Coulomb staircase of a single electron box. As current flows through the SET, the charge state of the SET island fluctuates. These fluctuations capacitively couple to the box and cause changes in the position, width, and asymmetry of the Coulomb staircase. A sequential tunnelling model accurately recreates these effects, confirming this mechanism of the backaction of an SET. This is a f...

  7. Random Young diagrams in a Rectangular Box

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Beltoft, Dan; Boutillier, Cédric; Enriquez, Nathanaël

    We exhibit the limit shape of random Young diagrams having a distribution proportional to the exponential of their area, and confined in a rectangular box. The Ornstein-Uhlenbeck bridge arises from the fluctuations around the limit shape.......We exhibit the limit shape of random Young diagrams having a distribution proportional to the exponential of their area, and confined in a rectangular box. The Ornstein-Uhlenbeck bridge arises from the fluctuations around the limit shape....

  8. Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) [1 Deg.

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) is a weather forecast model made up of 21 separate forecasts, or ensemble members. The National Centers for Environmental...

  9. k36u Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  10. HYDROGEN AND VOC RETENTION IN WASTE BOXES

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    PACE ME; MARUSICH RM

    2008-11-21

    The Hanford Waste Management Project Master Documented Safety Analysis (MDSA) (HNF-14741, 2003) identifies derived safety controls to prevent or mitigate the risks of a single-container deflagration during operations requiring moving, venting or opening transuranic (TRU)-waste containers. The issue is whether these safety controls are necessary for operations involving TRU-waste boxes that are being retrieved from burial at the Hanford Site. This paper investigates the potential for a deflagration hazard within these boxes and whether safety controls identified for drum deflagration hazards should be applied to operations involving these boxes. The study evaluates the accumulation of hydrogen and VOCs within the waste box and the transport of these gases and vapors out of the waste box. To perform the analysis, there were numerous and major assumptions made regarding the generation rate and the transport pathway dimensions and their number. Since there is little actual data with regards to these assumptions, analyses of three potential configurations were performed to obtain some indication of the bounds of the issue (the concentration of hydrogen or flammable VOCs within a waste box). A brief description of each of the three cases along with the results of the analysis is summarized.

  11. Load forecasting: modeling with judgment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lawrence, A.

    1977-08-01

    The development and implementation of new load-forecasting methods are progressing rapidly. Some new methods rely on the firm foundation of statistical time-series theory, some are built from engineering process models, and others result from micro-econometric analyses of electricity users' behavior. The new methods are more complicated and sophisticated than the pre-embargo forecasting techniques that have proved inadequate. Time-series methods are useful for short-run forecasts and will replace simple trend extrapolation techniques. Process modeling and micro-econometric modeling are promising for longer-run forecasting. These methods will supplement or displace engineering accounting techniques and aggregate econometric modeling. The implementation of advanced forecasting methods is made possible by the ever-increasing efficiency and falling costs of computerized data manipulation. Despite these advanced techniques being inseparably tied to the computer, they are certainly not automatic or cybernetic forecasting tools. The implementation of sophisticated load forecasting methods requires ever more skillful forecasters.

  12. Advances in time series forecasting

    CERN Document Server

    Cagdas, Hakan Aladag

    2012-01-01

    Readers will learn how these methods work and how these approaches can be used to forecast real life time series. The hybrid forecasting model is also explained. Data presented in this e-book is problem based and is taken from real life situations. It is a valuable resource for students, statisticians and working professionals interested in advanced time series analysis.

  13. USDA Livestock Price Forecasts: A Comprehensive Evaluation

    OpenAIRE

    Sanders, Dwight R.; Mark R. Manfredo

    2003-01-01

    One-step-ahead forecasts of quarterly live cattle, live hog, and broiler prices are evaluated under two general approaches: accuracy-based measures and classification based measures which test the ability to categorize price movements directionally or within a forecasted range. Results suggest U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) price forecasts are not optimal. Broiler price forecasts are biased, and all the forecast series tend to repeat errors. While the USDA forecasts are more accurate t...

  14. Weather Forecasting Systems and Methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mecikalski, John (Inventor); MacKenzie, Wayne M., Jr. (Inventor); Walker, John Robert (Inventor)

    2014-01-01

    A weather forecasting system has weather forecasting logic that receives raw image data from a satellite. The raw image data has values indicative of light and radiance data from the Earth as measured by the satellite, and the weather forecasting logic processes such data to identify cumulus clouds within the satellite images. For each identified cumulus cloud, the weather forecasting logic applies interest field tests to determine a score indicating the likelihood of the cumulus cloud forming precipitation and/or lightning in the future within a certain time period. Based on such scores, the weather forecasting logic predicts in which geographic regions the identified cumulus clouds will produce precipitation and/or lighting within during the time period. Such predictions may then be used to provide a weather map thereby providing users with a graphical illustration of the areas predicted to be affected by precipitation within the time period.

  15. 「参加型文化」論からみたメディア・リテラシー教育の提唱 : Henry Jenkins (2009) Confronting the Challenges of Participatory Cultureを中心に

    OpenAIRE

    Sunagawa, Seiji

    2010-01-01

    In this report, I took a viewpoint of the "participatory culture" of Henry Jenkins (2009) into account and argued what the literacy of the digital media. I clarified what kind of culture "participatory culture" is and what one participated with how. The support system between peers in the "participatory culture", have the community which can feel relieved where the system letting each other take an equal viewpoint. I made clear that it was a problem of the media literacy education how to buil...

  16. Forecasting Personal Shopping Behavior

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yeh Hsiaoping

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Data mining (DM techniques make efforts to discovery knowledge from data. Aiming to finding patterns, association rule (AR computing algorithms seem to be one to be adopted on variety applications. To be originally claimed for best analyzing customer shopping goods in baskets, Apriori, the first AR algorithm, has been discussed and modified the most by researchers. This study adopts Apriori algorithm to forecast individual customer shopping behavior. This study finds that customer shopping behaviors can be comprehended better in a long run. With Apriori mining and the examining principles proposed by this study, customer purchase behaviors of no matter constant purchase, stopping purchasing habitual goods, and starting to purchase goods that never bought before is able to be recognized. However, impulse purchase, including purchase for holidays, is unable to be discovered.

  17. Forecasting market developments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Traditional planning in essence consists of linear extrapolation of established facts and experience. This approach was good enough until recently, when progress would be relatively foreseeable within a stable system. The situation has been changing with developments and modifications in the global economic sector proceeding at accelerated pace, so that conventional planning methods become hopelessly inadequate. The past is of low significance to emerging markets; planners today have to keep abreast with and take into account the possible and emerging influencing factors. Experience is a factor to be replaced by intelligent analysis and conclusion within the framework of system networks. Modern scenario modelling methods are based on this approach: They are able to simulate and forecast a whole range of ''possible futures'', derived from perceivable trends. The article illustrates the novel planning methodology by assessing the future of the renewable energy sources, applying a computerized planning method (vision design) which is based on intelligent comparative analysis of all relevant trends. (Orig./RHM)

  18. Sirocco - Fukushima Forecast Description

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    SYMPHONIE-NH is the non-hydrostatic ocean model following the Boussinesq hydrostatic SYMPHONIE-2010 model developed by the Sirocco system team (CNRS and Toulouse University). Both are using an Arakawa type finite difference method for the C grid. The R and D team generally gives priority to a physically based approach of modelling (global conservation of the mechanical energy, consistency of pressure and density, accuracy of the bottom pressure torque,...) that tends to favour low order and robust numerical schemes. Most of the physical and numerical options (Non-Hydrostatic, free surface, generalised coordinates combined to an ALE method,...) are particularly suitable for the coastal area. At the request of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA, March 14, 2011), SIROCCO is delivering every day a real time 6-day forecast bulletin of the dispersion in seawater of radionuclides emitted by the Fukushima nuclear plant. The simulations are based on the S2010.18 release of the 3D SIROCCO ocean circulation model. The system is operational since March 24 and the bulletin is available on an 'open-access' basis since March 28. The model uses a stretched horizontal grid with a variable horizontal resolution: from 600 m x 600 m at the nearest grid point from Fukushima, to 5 km x 5 km offshore. The initial fields (T, S, U, V, SSH) and the lateral open boundary conditions are provided by the Mercator PSY4V1R3 system (one field per day, horizontal resolution 1/12 deg. x 1/12 deg.). At the sea surface, the ocean model is forced by the meteorological fluxes delivered every 3 hours by ECMWF.i The tidal forcing at the lateral open boundaries is provided by the T-UGO model, implemented for this purpose by the SIROCCO team on the Japanese Pacific coast. Some details are given on the methodology: Bathymetry, Initialization and large scale forcing, Tides, Atmospheric forcing, Forecast protocol, and Scenario for radioactive tracers

  19. 49 CFR 178.517 - Standards for plastic boxes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 2 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Standards for plastic boxes. 178.517 Section 178... PACKAGINGS Non-bulk Performance-Oriented Packaging Standards § 178.517 Standards for plastic boxes. (a) The following are identification codes for plastic boxes: (1) 4H1 for an expanded plastic box; and (2) 4H2 for...

  20. 49 CFR 230.101 - Steam locomotive driving journal boxes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Steam locomotive driving journal boxes. 230.101... Locomotives and Tenders Running Gear § 230.101 Steam locomotive driving journal boxes. (a) Driving journal boxes. Driving journal boxes shall be maintained in a safe and suitable condition for service. Not...

  1. Effect of an odor eliminator on feline litter box behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cottam, Nicole; Dodman, Nicholas H

    2007-02-01

    Decreasing litter box odor may be an important treatment component in addressing feline inappropriate elimination. A three-phase study was conducted to determine if the use of Zero Odor litter box spray increases the preference of litter boxes to cats, presumably by its odor-eliminating quality. In the first phase, cats were given a litter box preference test between a litter box sprayed with Zero Odor and one without. In the second phase, the number of occurrences of behaviors indicative of a cat's dissatisfaction with the litter box (scratching at the sides of the box, floor or wall, hesitating when entering the litter box, balancing on the side of the box and eliminating outside of the litter box) was compared before and after the use of Zero Odor. Last, the frequency of eliminations that occurred outside the litter box was measured during a baseline phase and a test phase, in which Zero Odor was sprayed into all litter boxes in the home. Significantly fewer behaviors associated with feline litter box dissatisfaction and fewer undesirable eliminations were observed in phases 2 and 3, respectively. These findings suggest that use of Zero Odor litter box spray appears to decrease litter box odor and increases the attractiveness of litter box to cats. PMID:17049291

  2. 49 CFR 178.514 - Standards for plywood boxes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 2 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Standards for plywood boxes. 178.514 Section 178... PACKAGINGS Non-bulk Performance-Oriented Packaging Standards § 178.514 Standards for plywood boxes. (a) The identification code for a plywood box is 4D. (b) Construction requirements for plywood boxes are as follows:...

  3. Forecasting global atmospheric CO2

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Agustí-Panareda

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available A new global atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2 real-time forecast is now available as part of the pre-operational Monitoring of Atmospheric Composition and Climate – Interim Implementation (MACC-II service using the infrastructure of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System (IFS. One of the strengths of the CO2 forecasting system is that the land surface, including vegetation CO2 fluxes, is modelled online within the IFS. Other CO2 fluxes are prescribed from inventories and from off-line statistical and physical models. The CO2 forecast also benefits from the transport modelling from a state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction (NWP system initialized daily with a wealth of meteorological observations. This paper describes the capability of the forecast in modelling the variability of CO2 on different temporal and spatial scales compared to observations. The modulation of the amplitude of the CO2 diurnal cycle by near-surface winds and boundary layer height is generally well represented in the forecast. The CO2 forecast also has high skill in simulating day-to-day synoptic variability. In the atmospheric boundary layer, this skill is significantly enhanced by modelling the day-to-day variability of the CO2 fluxes from vegetation compared to using equivalent monthly mean fluxes with a diurnal cycle. However, biases in the modelled CO2 fluxes also lead to accumulating errors in the CO2 forecast. These biases vary with season with an underestimation of the amplitude of the seasonal cycle both for the CO2 fluxes compared to total optimized fluxes and the atmospheric CO2 compared to observations. The largest biases in the atmospheric CO2 forecast are found in spring, corresponding to the onset of the growing season in the Northern Hemisphere. In the future, the forecast will be re-initialized regularly with atmospheric CO2 analyses based on the assimilation of CO2 satellite retrievals, as they

  4. Intelligent systems for demand forecasting

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Majithia, S.; Kiernan, L.; Hannan, J.

    1997-12-31

    The electricity industry is a huge and growing business, centring around the supply and demand of electricity. There are many benefits in knowing the future load on the system by way of forecasting future demand for electricity. Demand forecasts are of use in a wide range of issues relating to system control, maintenance and planning. Short term demand forecasting (1-7 days ahead) allows unit scheduling to be planned, preparing the industry to meet the demand for electricity. There are large financial benefits in improving forecasts even by a small percentage, so it is always worth investigating new techniques that may help the forecaster. ISs offer a range of new approaches that can help improve demand forecasts. There are two major benefits of using ISs rather than the more traditional modelling techniques. Firstly, intelligent systems offer powerful modelling techniques with very different strengths from those currently available. ESs can be used to encapsulate knowledge and experience, to track not just the general trends in demand but also many of the irregularities. They can easily be updated to include any new relationships. Fuzzy sets permit the linguistic rules that are often present in human descriptions to be incorporated into the model. ANNs offer the ability to model the non-linearities that are known to be part of the demand pattern. The second benefit is the ability of intelligent systems to automate the process of constructing a forecasting model. (UK)

  5. Atmospheric composition forecasting in Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Menut, L.; Bessagnet, B.

    2010-01-01

    The atmospheric composition is a societal issue and, following new European directives, its forecast is now recommended to quantify the air quality. It concerns both gaseous and particles species, identified as potential problems for health. In Europe, numerical systems providing daily air quality forecasts are numerous and, mostly, operated by universities. Following recent European research projects (GEMS, PROMOTE), an organization of the air quality forecast is currently under development. But for the moment, many platforms exist, each of them with strengths and weaknesses. This overview paper presents all existing systems in Europe and try to identify the main remaining gaps in the air quality forecast knowledge. As modeling systems are now able to reasonably forecast gaseous species, and in a lesser extent aerosols, the future directions would concern the use of these systems with ensemble approaches and satellite data assimilation. If numerous improvements were recently done on emissions and chemistry knowledge, improvements are still needed especially concerning meteorology, which remains a weak point of forecast systems. Future directions will also concern the use of these forecast tools to better understand and quantify the air pollution impact on health.

  6. Atmospheric composition forecasting in Europe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Menut

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available The atmospheric composition is a societal issue and, following new European directives, its forecast is now recommended to quantify the air quality. It concerns both gaseous and particles species, identified as potential problems for health. In Europe, numerical systems providing daily air quality forecasts are numerous and, mostly, operated by universities. Following recent European research projects (GEMS, PROMOTE, an organization of the air quality forecast is currently under development. But for the moment, many platforms exist, each of them with strengths and weaknesses. This overview paper presents all existing systems in Europe and try to identify the main remaining gaps in the air quality forecast knowledge. As modeling systems are now able to reasonably forecast gaseous species, and in a lesser extent aerosols, the future directions would concern the use of these systems with ensemble approaches and satellite data assimilation. If numerous improvements were recently done on emissions and chemistry knowledge, improvements are still needed especially concerning meteorology, which remains a weak point of forecast systems. Future directions will also concern the use of these forecast tools to better understand and quantify the air pollution impact on health.

  7. Forecasting incidence of dengue in Rajasthan, using time series analyses

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sunil Bhatnagar

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Aim: To develop a prediction model for dengue fever/dengue haemorrhagic fever (DF/DHF using time series data over the past decade in Rajasthan and to forecast monthly DF/DHF incidence for 2011. Materials and Methods: Seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA model was used for statistical modeling. Results: During January 2001 to December 2010, the reported DF/DHF cases showed a cyclical pattern with seasonal variation. SARIMA (0,0,1 (0,1,1 12 model had the lowest normalized Bayesian information criteria (BIC of 9.426 and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE of 263.361 and appeared to be the best model. The proportion of variance explained by the model was 54.3%. Adequacy of the model was established through Ljung-Box test (Q statistic 4.910 and P-value 0.996, which showed no significant correlation between residuals at different lag times. The forecast for the year 2011 showed a seasonal peak in the month of October with an estimated 546 cases. Conclusion: Application of SARIMA model may be useful for forecast of cases and impending outbreaks of DF/DHF and other infectious diseases, which exhibit seasonal pattern.

  8. Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2) Operational Forecasts

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2) produced by the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) is a fully coupled model representing the...

  9. Bending analysis of laminated composite box beams

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tripathy, A.K.; Patel, H.J.; Pang, S.S. (Louisiana State Univ., Baton Rouge, LA (United States). Dept. of Mechanical Engineering)

    1994-01-01

    Box beams are widely used in weight reduction structures such as aircraft wings. The use of composite box beams further reduces the weight factor for such structures with the same deflection and stress as that of isotropic box beams. The difference in the behavior of composite box beam with different fiber orientation, number of plies, and number of stringers also provides a wide range of designing parameters to achieve the required performance for a given problem. A bending analysis has been carried out for the study of deflections and stresses for box beams of different material (isotropic and laminated composites), size, and number of stringers subjected to different kinds of loading conditions. A finite element model has been developed based on the strain energy principle, and the results are compared with an available commercial code COSMOS/M.'' Experiments using aluminum and scotchply composite laminates were conducted to verify the results. An optimal design for size and number of stiffeners for a given loading condition has been achieved. Investigations have also been carried out to find the effect of transverse shear on the span-wise normal stress.

  10. Pharmacy Students’ Knowledge of Black Box Warnings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shireman, Theresa I.; Generali, Joyce; Rigler, Sally; Mayorga, Angela

    2010-01-01

    Objective To evaluate the progression of pharmacy students’ knowledge of black box warnings across 3 years of didactic training, and to determine how they stay current with new warnings. Methods A cross-sectional survey instrument was administered to pharmacy students in their first (P1), second (P2), and third (P3) professional years. The survey assessed student awareness of medications possessing a black box warning and familiarity with the warning content for 20 medications (15 with and 5 without warnings). Results Mean number of correct responses identifying the presence or absence of a black box warning among the 20 medications were 5.8 ± 3.3, 9.6 ± 4.0, and 14.8 ± 2.8 for the P1, P2, and P3 students, respectively. Knowledge of black box warning content was variable. Students were least aware of the warning content for stavudine and enoxaparin. Students were most familiar with the warning content for paroxetine and estrogen. Conclusion Students’ awareness and understanding of black box warnings was proportional to their educational progression, but their knowledge level was inconsistent across drug groups. PMID:20221356

  11. Black Sea coastal forecasting system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. I. Kubryakov

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available The Black Sea coastal nowcasting and forecasting system was built within the framework of EU FP6 ECOOP (European COastalshelf sea OPerational observing and forecasting system project for five regions: the south-western basin along the coasts of Bulgaria and Turkey, the north-western shelf along the Romanian and Ukrainian coasts, coastal zone around of the Crimea peninsula, the north-eastern Russian coastal zone and the coastal zone of Georgia. The system operates in the real-time mode during the ECOOP project and afterwards. The forecasts include temperature, salinity and current velocity fields. Ecosystem model operates in the off-line mode near the Crimea coast.

  12. Do Forecasting Methods Reduce Avoidable Error? Evidence from Forecasting Competitions

    OpenAIRE

    Steve Morlidge

    2014-01-01

    The set of M-competitions Ð comparing the forecasting accuracy of two dozen common time series methods Ð is a landmark in our understanding of how different methods fare on a variety of data types. For example, one common procedure, the trend line extrapolation available in Excel, emerged as the least accurate of all, and probably should be considered a must to avoid. Yet, as Steve Morlidge tells us here, the implications for practitioners, especially demand forecasters, are not widely unders...

  13. Nearly Seamless Vacuum-Insulated Boxes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stepanian, Christopher J.; Ou, Danny; Hu, Xiangjun

    2010-01-01

    A design concept, and a fabrication process that would implement the design concept, have been proposed for nearly seamless vacuum-insulated boxes that could be the main structural components of a variety of controlled-temperature containers, including common household refrigerators and insulating containers for shipping foods. In a typical case, a vacuum-insulated box would be shaped like a rectangular parallelepiped conventional refrigerator box having five fully closed sides and a hinged door on the sixth side. Although it is possible to construct the five-closed-side portion of the box as an assembly of five unitary vacuum-insulated panels, it is not desirable to do so because the relatively high thermal conductances of the seams between the panels would contribute significant amounts of heat leakage, relative to the leakage through the panels themselves. In contrast, the proposal would make it possible to reduce heat leakage by constructing the five-closed-side portion of the box plus the stationary portion (if any) of the sixth side as a single, seamless unit; the only remaining seam would be the edge seal around the door. The basic cross-sectional configuration of each side of a vacuum-insulated box according to the proposal would be that of a conventional vacuum-insulated panel: a low-density, porous core material filling a partially evacuated space between face sheets. However, neither the face sheets nor the core would be conventional. The face sheets would be opposite sides of a vacuum bag. The core material would be a flexible polymer-modified silica aerogel of the type described in Silica/Polymer and Silica/Polymer/Fiber Composite Aero - gels (MSC-23736) in this issue of NASA Tech Briefs. As noted in that article, the stiffness of this core material against compression is greater than that of prior aerogels. This is an important advantage because it translates to greater retention of thickness and, hence, of insulation performance when pressure is

  14. Advances in the theory of box integrals

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bailey, David H.; Borwein, J.M.; Crandall, R.E.

    2009-06-25

    Box integrals - expectations <|{rvec r}|{sup s}> or <|{rvec r}-{rvec q}|{sup s}> over the unit n-cube (or n-box) - have over three decades been occasionally given closed forms for isolated n,s. By employing experimental mathematics together with a new, global analytic strategy, we prove that for n {le} 4 dimensions the box integrals are for any integer s hypergeometrically closed in a sense we clarify herein. For n = 5 dimensions, we show that a single unresolved integral we call K{sub 5} stands in the way of such hyperclosure proofs. We supply a compendium of exemplary closed forms that naturally arise algorithmically from this theory.

  15. Quantile forecast discrimination ability and value

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ben Bouallègue, Zied; Pinson, Pierre; Friederichs, Petra

    2015-01-01

    While probabilistic forecast verification for categorical forecasts is well established, some of the existing concepts and methods have not found their equivalent for the case of continuous variables. New tools dedicated to the assessment of forecast discrimination ability and forecast value are ...

  16. Fire test of DOT 7A Boxes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The primary objective of conducting the full-scale fire tests of the DOT (Department of Transportation) 7A FRP Boxes was to provide information to assist in quantifying the fire hazard of the storage located at the Radioactive Waste Management Complex (RWMC), and to learn if changing the storage array will decrease the fire risk. Also, the level of fire fighting and fire protection required to maintain the risk at the RWMC within acceptable DOE guidelines was investigated. Two full-scale fire tests were conducted at Southwest Research Institute (SwRI) in June 1978, using the DOE 7A FRP Plywood Storage Containers. The fire tests showed that when subjected to a substantial ignition source, the boxes will propagate fire as long as no fire-suppression measures are taken. Fire will breach the boxes and spread the radioactive contaminated waste if it is not extinguished. As the fire progresses, additional boxes will become involved, and eventually the entire storage array will ignite. It is recommended that the use of DOT 7A Boxes be discontinued and replaced with noncombustible storage containers. In the event this is not practicable, guidance recommendations are presented to minimize the large fire loss potential. It is also recommended that an investigation be conducted into the number of boxes that can be destroyed and still maintain a safe environment for employees and the public. This investigation should include how far radioactive contamination will spread, what cleanup will be required, anticipated exposure of the people within the area, and the public impact of such a fire

  17. Recurrent networks for wave forecasting

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Mandal, S.; Prabaharan, N.

    , merchant vessel routing, nearshore construction, etc. more efficiently and safely. This paper presents an application of the Artificial Neural Network, namely Backpropagation Recurrent Neural Network (BRNN) with rprop update algorithm for wave forecasting...

  18. Forecasting the Integration of Immigrants

    CERN Document Server

    Contucci, Pierluigi; Seyedi, Seyedalireza

    2015-01-01

    This paper presents a quantitative framework for forecasting immigrant integration using immigrant density as the single driver. By comparing forecasted integration estimates based on data collected up to specific periods in time, with observed integration quantities beyond the specified period, we show that: Our forecasts are prompt-readily available after a short period of time, accurate-with a small relative error-and finally robust-able to predict integration correctly for several years to come. The research reported here proves that the proposed model of integration and its forecast framework are simple and effective tools to reduce uncertainties about how integration phenomena emerge and how they are likely to develop in response to increased migration levels in the future.

  19. Light truck forecasts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Liepins, G.E.

    1979-09-01

    The recent dramatic increase in the number of light trucks (109% between 1963 and 1974) has prompted concern about the energy consequences of the growing popularity of the light truck. An estimate of the future number of light trucks is considered to be a reasonable first step in assessing the energy impact of these vehicles. The monograph contains forecasts based on two models and six scenarios. The coefficients for the models have been derived by ordinary least squares regression of national level time series data. The first model is a two stage model. The first stage estimates the number of light trucks and cars (together), and the second stage applies a share's submodel to determine the number of light trucks. The second model is a simultaneous equation model. The two models track one another remarkably well, within about 2%. The scenarios were chosen to be consistent with those used in the Lindsey-Kaufman study Projection of Light Truck Population to Year 2025. Except in the case of the most dismal economic scenario, the number of light trucks is expected to increase from the 1974 level of 0.09 light truck per person to about 0.12 light truck per person in 1995.

  20. Testing of packings for stuffing boxes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The stuffing box packings function when they are sealed tight and do not obstruct the movement of the spindle. Characteristic values are necessary to characterise the materials properties of stuffing box packings. Essentially, the definitions of the characteristic values are known and can be calculated in experimental setups. It is absolutely necessary to standardise the characteristic values as well as the testing procedures in order to be able to provide comparable and reproduceable characteristic values. Depending upon the importance of the fittings, it is necessary to guarantee sufficiently exact and reliable assembly for defined operating conditions. (orig.)