WorldWideScience

Sample records for box jenkins forecasting

  1. BoxJenkins Models For Forecasting The Daily Degrees Of Temperature In Sulaimani City.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Samira Muhammad Salh

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available The Auto-regressive model in the time series is regarded one of the statistical articles which is more used because it gives us a simple method to limit the relation between variables time series. More over it is one of BoxJenkins models to limit the time series in the forecasting the value of phenomenon in the future so that study aims for the practical analysis studying for the auto-regressive models in the time series, through one of BoxJenkins models for forecasting the daily degrees of temperature in Sulaimani city for the year (2012- Sept.2013 and then for building a sample in the way of special data in the degrees of temperature and its using in the calculating the future forecasting . the style which is used is the descriptive and analyzing by the help of data that is dealt with statistically and which is collected from the official resources To reach his mentioned aim , the discussion of the following items has been done by the theoretical part which includes the idea of time series and its quality and the autocorrelation and BoxJenkins and then the practical part which includes the statistical analysis for the data and the discussion of the theoretical part, so they reached to a lot of conclusions as it had come in the practical study for building autoregressive models of time series as the mode was very suitable is the auto-regressive model and model moving average by the degree (1,1,1.

  2. Aplicación de la metodología Box-Jenkins para pronóstico de precios en jitomate Application of Box-Jenkins methodology for forecasting prices in tomatoes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gaspar Marroquín Martínez

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available Los productos del sector agroalimentario tienen como características económicas distintivas, la alta variabilidad en sus precios. Teniendo en cuenta la incertidumbre de los precios, una posible forma de planificar racionalmente la toma de decisiones, que consiste en elaborar pronósticos confiables del comportamiento futuro de esa variable. En este trabajo se usó la metodología Box-Jenkins, para identificar un modelo econométrico autoregresivo integrado de media móvil (ARIMA, que se ajusta al comportamiento de la serie de tiempo de precios nominales en venta al mayoreo de jitomate bola en México. Se concluye de acuerdo a los resultados, que la serie de tiempo objeto de estudio, se ajusta a un modelo ARIMA (23, 0, 1, dicho modelo posee dos factores autoregresivos y uno de media móvil. Con el modelo se hicieron pronósticos para 12 meses, los cuales comprenden de diciembre de 2008 a noviembre de 2009.Agri-food products have as a distinctive economic characteristic, its high variability in prices. Given the uncertainty of prices, a possible way of rational planning decisions, is to develop reliable forecasts of that variable's future behavior. In this paper we used the Box-Jenkins methodology to identify an econometric autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA, which fits the behavior of time series of nominal prices for beef tomato wholesaling in Mexico. According to the results we concluded that the time series under consideration, fits to an ARIMA model (23, 0, 1, this model has two autoregressive factors and a moving average. With this model there were made forecasts for 12 months, which are from December 2008 to November 2009.

  3. Box-Jenkins analysis for shark landings in Costa Rica.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonilla, Roger; Chavarría, Juan B

    2004-12-01

    Sharks are highly vulnerable to intense and prolonged fishery extraction. This article analyzes the data on shark landings from the artisan fishing fleet on Costa Rica's Pacific coast between 1988 and 1997. The data come from an invoicing system administered by the Costa Rican Fisheries Institute (Instituto Costarricense de la Pesca y Acuacultura, INCOPESCA). Pacific coast shark fishing during the period under study represented approximately 20% of the total national fisheries volume. According to data from the invoicing system, the Northern Pacific region was the most productive, reporting 58% of the shark catch nationwide. Within this region, shark fishing in Papagayo Gulf represented 91% and 53% of the landings by fishery region and nationwide, respectively. The mid-sized and advanced (length of boat > 10 meters) artisan fishing fleets reported 96% of the shark catches in the zone. The study of shark fisheries in the Papagayo Gulf zone is crucial for an understanding of fishery dynamics for this resource at the national level. A monthly chronological series was constructed with the landings in the Papagayo Gulf zone, and a Univariate Box-Jenkins (UBJ) Model was estimated for first-order moving averages MA(1) with a seasonal component of the Yt = lamda(t-1) + gammaS12 + a(t) type.

  4. Time-series analysis with a hybrid Box-Jenkins ARIMA and neural network model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Dilli R Aryal; WANG Yao-wu(王要武)

    2004-01-01

    Time-series analysis is important to a wide range of disciplines transcending both the physical and social sciences for proactive policy decisions. Statistical models have sound theoretical basis and have been successfully used in a number of problem domains in time series forecasting. Due to power and flexibility, Box-Jenkins ARIMA model has gained enormous popularity in many areas and research practice for the last three decades.More recently, the neural networks have been shown to be a promising alternative tool for modeling and forecasting owing to their ability to capture the nonlinearity in the data. However, despite the popularity and the superiority of ARIMA and ANN models, the empirical forecasting performance has been rather mixed so that no single method is best in every situation. In this study, a hybrid ARIMA and neural networks model to time series forecasting is proposed. The basic idea behind the model combination is to use each model's unique features to capture different patterns in the data. With three real data sets, empirical results evidently show that the hybrid model outperforms ARIMA and ANN model noticeably in terms of forecasting accuracy used in isolation.

  5. Modelling of the monthly and daily behaviour of the runoff of the Xallas river using Box-Jenkins and neural networks methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castellano-Méndez, María.; González-Manteiga, Wenceslao; Febrero-Bande, Manuel; Manuel Prada-Sánchez, José; Lozano-Calderón, Román

    2004-08-01

    This paper presents a study of the hydrological behaviour of the Xallas river basin in the northwest of Spain, based on modelling the performance of the runoff produced by the river at different temporal scales. For monthly mean runoff as well as mean rainfall forecasting, Box-Jenkins models have been used. For short-term daily flow predictions, two statistical techniques were tested and compared: the classic statistical Box-Jenkins models and artificial neural networks (ANNs). The performance of the ANN was an improvement on the Box-Jenkins results. The neural networks capability of modelling a complex rainfall-runoff relationship has been observed. Although the neural network's performance was not satisfactory for detecting some peak flows, the results were most promising.

  6. Stochastic gradient algorithm for a dual-rate Box-Jenkins model based on auxiliary model and FIR model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Jing CHEN; Rui-feng DING

    2014-01-01

    Based on the work in Ding and Ding (2008), we develop a modifi ed stochastic gradient (SG) parameter estimation algorithm for a dual-rate Box-Jenkins model by using an auxiliary model. We simplify the complex dual-rate Box-Jenkins model to two fi nite impulse response (FIR) models, present an auxiliary model to estimate the missing outputs and the unknown noise variables, and compute all the unknown parameters of the system with colored noises. Simulation results indicate that the proposed method is effective.

  7. Jenkins essentials

    CERN Document Server

    Soni, Mitesh

    2015-01-01

    If you are a Jenkins novice or beginner with a basic understanding of continuous integration, then this is the book for you. Beginners in Jenkins will get quick hands-on experience and gain the confidence to go ahead and explore the use of Jenkins further.

  8. Jenkins The Definitive Guide

    CERN Document Server

    Smart, John

    2011-01-01

    Streamline software development with Jenkins, the popular Java-based open source tool that has revolutionized the way teams think about Continuous Integration (CI). This complete guide shows you how to automate your build, integration, release, and deployment processes with Jenkins-and demonstrates how CI can save you time, money, and many headaches. Ideal for developers, software architects, and project managers, Jenkins: The Definitive Guide is both a CI tutorial and a comprehensive Jenkins reference. Through its wealth of best practices and real-world tips, you'll discover how easy it is

  9. Previsão de demanda: uma aplicação dos modelos Box-Jenkins na área de assistência técnica de computadores pessoais

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Werner Liane

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available A previsão de demanda é uma atividade importante para auxiliar na determinação dos recursos necessários para a empresa. Neste artigo, a metodologia de Box-Jenkins foi utilizada para analisar dados históricos de uma empresa de assistência técnica de computadores pessoais e obter previsões do número de atendimentos. A empresa estudada apresenta três tipos de clientes diferenciados: contratos, garantia e avulsos. Como cada segmento de clientes tem suas peculiaridades, a previsão de demanda foi direcionada a cada tipo, buscando representar o comportamento de tendência e a sazonalidade por meio dos modelos de Box-Jenkins. A obtenção dos modelos mais adequados foi baseada na análise de gráficos e em testes estatísticos próprios da metodologia, os quais subsidiaram a decisão de adotar o modelo AR(1 para prever o número de atendimentos dos clientes tipo contrato, o modelo ARIMA(2,1,0 para os clientes tipo garantia e um modelo sazonal SARIMA(0,1,0(0,1,112 para os clientes tipo avulsos.

  10. Jenkins continuous integration cookbook

    CERN Document Server

    Berg, Alan Mark

    2015-01-01

    If you are a Java developer, a software architect, a technical project manager, a build manager, or a development or QA engineer, then this book is ideal for you. A basic understanding of the software development life cycle and Java development is needed, as well as a rudimentary understanding of Jenkins.

  11. O Selfie de Jenkins

    OpenAIRE

    Grohmann, Rafael

    2015-01-01

    Entrevista com Henry Jenkins, Professor adjunto de Literatura e diretordo Programa de Estudos de MídiaComparada do MIT – Instituto de Tecnologiade Massachusetts. Professor deComunicação, Jornalismo, Artes Cinematográficase Educação na Universidadedo Sul da California.

  12. Forecasting with Dynamic Regression Models

    CERN Document Server

    Pankratz, Alan

    2012-01-01

    One of the most widely used tools in statistical forecasting, single equation regression models is examined here. A companion to the author's earlier work, Forecasting with Univariate Box-Jenkins Models: Concepts and Cases, the present text pulls together recent time series ideas and gives special attention to possible intertemporal patterns, distributed lag responses of output to input series and the auto correlation patterns of regression disturbance. It also includes six case studies.

  13. Integrating PHP Projects with Jenkins

    CERN Document Server

    Bergmann, Sebastian

    2011-01-01

    Today's web applications require frequent updates, not just by adding or upgrading features, but by maintaining and improving the software's existing code base as well. This concise book shows PHP developers how to use Jenkins, the popular continuous integration server, to monitor various aspects of software quality throughout a project's lifecycle. You'll learn how to implement continuous integration to automate processes for building and deploying regular software releases. The book also shows you how to use Jenkins to monitor and improve your application through continuous inspection. You

  14. Forecasts of non-Gaussian parameter spaces using Box-Cox transformations

    CERN Document Server

    Joachimi, B

    2011-01-01

    Forecasts of statistical constraints on model parameters using the Fisher matrix abound in many fields of astrophysics. The Fisher matrix formalism involves the assumption of Gaussianity in parameter space and hence fails to predict complex features of posterior probability distributions. Combining the standard Fisher matrix with Box-Cox transformations, we propose a novel method that accurately predicts arbitrary posterior shapes. The Box-Cox transformations are applied to parameter space to render it approximately multivariate Gaussian, performing the Fisher matrix calculation on the transformed parameters. We demonstrate that, after the Box-Cox parameters have been determined from an initial likelihood evaluation, the method correctly predicts changes in the posterior when varying various parameters of the experimental setup and the data analysis, with marginally higher computational cost than a standard Fisher matrix calculation. We apply the Box-Cox-Fisher formalism to forecast cosmological parameter con...

  15. The Ideas of Henry Jenkins and Libraries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, Byron

    2008-01-01

    Henry Jenkins, director of the Comparative Media Studies Program at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and keynote speaker at the 2007 American Library Association's "Gaming, Learning and Libraries Symposium" in Chicago is a visionary leader in the areas of new media and media convergence. In a white paper on digital media and learning…

  16. Forecasting coconut production in the Philippines with ARIMA model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lim, Cristina Teresa

    2015-02-01

    The study aimed to depict the situation of the coconut industry in the Philippines for the future years applying Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) method. Data on coconut production, one of the major industrial crops of the country, for the period of 1990 to 2012 were analyzed using time-series methods. Autocorrelation (ACF) and partial autocorrelation functions (PACF) were calculated for the data. Appropriate Box-Jenkins autoregressive moving average model was fitted. Validity of the model was tested using standard statistical techniques. The forecasting power of autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model was used to forecast coconut production for the eight leading years.

  17. Network Bandwidth Utilization Forecast Model on High Bandwidth Network

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yoo, Wucherl; Sim, Alex

    2014-07-07

    With the increasing number of geographically distributed scientific collaborations and the scale of the data size growth, it has become more challenging for users to achieve the best possible network performance on a shared network. We have developed a forecast model to predict expected bandwidth utilization for high-bandwidth wide area network. The forecast model can improve the efficiency of resource utilization and scheduling data movements on high-bandwidth network to accommodate ever increasing data volume for large-scale scientific data applications. Univariate model is developed with STL and ARIMA on SNMP path utilization data. Compared with traditional approach such as Box-Jenkins methodology, our forecast model reduces computation time by 83.2percent. It also shows resilience against abrupt network usage change. The accuracy of the forecast model is within the standard deviation of the monitored measurements.

  18. A Stochastic-Dynamic Model for Real Time Flood Forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chow, K. C. A.; Watt, W. E.; Watts, D. G.

    1983-06-01

    A stochastic-dynamic model for real time flood forecasting was developed using Box-Jenkins modelling techniques. The purpose of the forecasting system is to forecast flood levels of the Saint John River at Fredericton, New Brunswick. The model consists of two submodels: an upstream model used to forecast the headpond level at the Mactaquac Dam and a downstream model to forecast the water level at Fredericton. Inputs to the system are recorded values of the water level at East Florenceville, the headpond level and gate position at Mactaquac, and the water level at Fredericton. The model was calibrated for the spring floods of 1973, 1974, 1977, and 1978, and its usefulness was verified for the 1979 flood. The forecasting results indicated that the stochastic-dynamic model produces reasonably accurate forecasts for lead times up to two days. These forecasts were then compared to those from the existing forecasting system and were found to be as reliable as those from the existing system.

  19. Forecast Master Program case studies: Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Engle, R.; Granger, C.; Ramanathan, R. (ed.)

    1987-04-01

    This report presents a number of case studies using the computer software package FORECAST MASTER (FM). The series studied and forecast are, aggregate monthly California Electricity Sales, system energy demand data from Ontario Hydro, peak demand data for the residential and commercial customers of Georgia Power Company, Massachusetts Electric commercial sales, Narragansett Electric commercial sales, average and peak demand using Georgia Power Company data. A variety of methods have been studied by each of the contributing authors; trend line fitting, exponential smoothing, Box-Jenkins univariate forecasting, vector autoregression, state space modeling, dynamic econometric models including time-varying parameters and general order serial correlation corrections. Thus both the data sets and the modeling/forecasting methodologies are varied. A number of conclusions emerge from these case studies: FM provides a powerful set of tools to aid a utility forecaster, a great deal of caution should be exercised in pre-processing the data; it can have unintended side effects, diagnostic tests are very useful in econometric models, the Akaike Information Criterion is a useful measure for selecting the best state space model, and state space and econometric approaches both need equal amounts of care in model analysis and presentation.

  20. Modeling and forecasting rainfall patterns of southwest monsoons in North-East India as a SARIMA process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Narasimha Murthy, K. V.; Saravana, R.; Vijaya Kumar, K.

    2017-02-01

    Weather forecasting is an important issue in the field of meteorology all over the world. The pattern and amount of rainfall are the essential factors that affect agricultural systems. India experiences the precious Southwest monsoon season for four months from June to September. The present paper describes an empirical study for modeling and forecasting the time series of Southwest monsoon rainfall patterns in the North-East India. The Box-Jenkins Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) methodology has been adopted for model identification, diagnostic checking and forecasting for this region. The study has shown that the SARIMA (0, 1, 1) (1, 0, 1)4 model is appropriate for analyzing and forecasting the future rainfall patterns. The Analysis of Means (ANOM) is a useful alternative to the analysis of variance (ANOVA) for comparing the group of treatments to study the variations and critical comparisons of rainfall patterns in different months of the season.

  1. TIME SERIES FORECASTING USING NEURAL NETWORKS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    BOGDAN OANCEA

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Recent studies have shown the classification and prediction power of the Neural Networks. It has been demonstrated that a NN can approximate any continuous function. Neural networks have been successfully used for forecasting of financial data series. The classical methods used for time series prediction like Box-Jenkins or ARIMA assumes that there is a linear relationship between inputs and outputs. Neural Networks have the advantage that can approximate nonlinear functions. In this paper we compared the performances of different feed forward and recurrent neural networks and training algorithms for predicting the exchange rate EUR/RON and USD/RON. We used data series with daily exchange rates starting from 2005 until 2013.

  2. Koht, kust tagasi ei tulda / Mark Jenkins ; fotod Cory Richards

    Index Scriptorium Estoniae

    Jenkins, Mark

    2015-01-01

    National Geographicu ekspeditsiooni, mille koosseisu kuulusid Renan Ozturk, Mark Jenkins, Cory Richards, Emily Harrington ja Kilaree O'Neill, püüdlustest tõusta Kagu-Aasia kõrgeima mäe Hkakabo Razi tippu ning mõõta selle täpset kõrgust GPS-i abil

  3. Influenza forecasting with Google Flu Trends.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrea Freyer Dugas

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: We developed a practical influenza forecast model based on real-time, geographically focused, and easy to access data, designed to provide individual medical centers with advanced warning of the expected number of influenza cases, thus allowing for sufficient time to implement interventions. Secondly, we evaluated the effects of incorporating a real-time influenza surveillance system, Google Flu Trends, and meteorological and temporal information on forecast accuracy. METHODS: Forecast models designed to predict one week in advance were developed from weekly counts of confirmed influenza cases over seven seasons (2004-2011 divided into seven training and out-of-sample verification sets. Forecasting procedures using classical Box-Jenkins, generalized linear models (GLM, and generalized linear autoregressive moving average (GARMA methods were employed to develop the final model and assess the relative contribution of external variables such as, Google Flu Trends, meteorological data, and temporal information. RESULTS: A GARMA(3,0 forecast model with Negative Binomial distribution integrating Google Flu Trends information provided the most accurate influenza case predictions. The model, on the average, predicts weekly influenza cases during 7 out-of-sample outbreaks within 7 cases for 83% of estimates. Google Flu Trend data was the only source of external information to provide statistically significant forecast improvements over the base model in four of the seven out-of-sample verification sets. Overall, the p-value of adding this external information to the model is 0.0005. The other exogenous variables did not yield a statistically significant improvement in any of the verification sets. CONCLUSIONS: Integer-valued autoregression of influenza cases provides a strong base forecast model, which is enhanced by the addition of Google Flu Trends confirming the predictive capabilities of search query based syndromic surveillance. This

  4. Modeling for Growth and Forecasting of Pulse Production in Bangladesh

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Niaz Md. FarhatRahman

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available The present study was carried out to estimate growth pattern and examine the best ARIMA model to efficiently forecasting pigeon pea, chickpea and field pea pulse production in Bangladesh. It appeared that the time series data for pigeon pea, chickpea and field pea were 1st order homogenous stationary. Two types of models namely Box-Jenkins type Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA and deterministic type growth models, are examined to identify the best forecasting models for pigeon pea, chickpea and field pea pulse production in Bangladesh. The study revealed that the best models were ARIMA (1, 1 and 1, ARIMA (0, 1 and 0 and ARIMA (1, 1 and 3 for pigeon pea, chickpea and field pea pulse production, respectively. Among the deterministic type growth models, the cubic model is best for pigeon pea, chickpea and field pea pulse production. The analysis indicated that short-term forecasts were more efficient for ARIMA models compared to the deterministic models. The production uncertainty of pulse could be minimized if production were forecasted well and necessary steps were taken against losses. The findings of this study would be more useful for policy makers, researchers as well as producers in order to forecast future national pulse production more accurately in the short run.

  5. Development of golf tourism and golf tourism demand forecasts in Turkey: a study of Belek region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Murat Çuhadar

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Golf tourism has become one of the rapidly developing tourism types in Turkey, especially in the Belek region. In this study, detailed information about the development of golf tourism in Turkey from past to present was provided and golf tourism demand to Belek region which is a major golf tourism destinastion in the world and Turkey was modeled and forecasted monthly by Box-Jenkins methodology for the May 2013 –December 2014 period. As a measure of golf tourism demand, number of monthly golf games were taken in the study and the monthly number of golf game statistics of January 2001 – April 2013 in the golf establishments in Belek tourism center were used. By producing ex-ante forecasts it is aimed to create a basis for tourism development plans prepared by the management of private and public sector and to provide support for administrators’ monthly planning decisions.

  6. Forecasting of time series with trend and seasonal cycle using the airline model and artificial neural networks Pronóstico de series de tiempo con tendencia y ciclo estacional usando el modelo airline y redes neuronales artificiales

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J D Velásquez

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Many time series with trend and seasonal pattern are successfully modeled and forecasted by the airline model of Box and Jenkins; however, this model neglects the presence of nonlinearity on data. In this paper, we propose a new nonlinear version of the airline model; for this, we replace the moving average linear component by a multilayer perceptron neural network. The proposedmodel is used for forecasting two benchmark time series; we found that theproposed model is able to forecast the time series with more accuracy that other traditional approaches.Muchas series de tiempo con tendencia y ciclos estacionales son exitosamente modeladas y pronosticadas usando el modelo airline de Box y Jenkins; sin embargo, la presencia de no linealidades en los datos son despreciadas por este modelo. En este artículo, se propone una nueva versión no lineal del modelo airline; para esto, se reemplaza la componente lineal de promedios móviles por un perceptrón multicapa. El modelo propuesto es usado para pronosticar dos series de tiempo benchmark; se encontró que el modelo propuesto es capaz de pronosticar las series de tiempo con mayor precisión que otras aproximaciones tradicionales.

  7. Estimation and Forecasting the Gross Domestic Product´s Growth Rate in Ecuador: a Short-term Vision

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yadier Alberto Torres−Sánchez

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Ecuador is the seventh largest economy in Latin America. From 2000 to 2012, the country has been expanding at an average rate of 1,15 % on a quarter over quarter basis, mostly due to a rise in exports. Ecuador´s economy is highly dependent on oil exports. In order to reach its full growth potential, the country needs to reduce its dependence on oil revenue; increase the tax base; achieve political stability and reduce the levels of poverty and inequality. The main objective of this research is specifically marked in estimate and forecast the Gross Domestic Product´s Growth Rate in Ecuador, applying for this BoxJenkins´ Methodology for ARIMA models. It was obtained a forecast of 3,96 % approximately, that represents a logical result according with the time series.

  8. Forecast of Frost Days Based on Monthly Temperatures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castellanos, M. T.; Tarquis, A. M.; Morató, M. C.; Saa-Requejo, A.

    2009-04-01

    Although frost can cause considerable crop damage and mitigation practices against forecasted frost exist, frost forecasting technologies have not changed for many years. The paper reports a new method to forecast the monthly number of frost days (FD) for several meteorological stations at Community of Madrid (Spain) based on successive application of two models. The first one is a stochastic model, autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), that forecasts monthly minimum absolute temperature (tmin) and monthly average of minimum temperature (tminav) following Box-Jenkins methodology. The second model relates these monthly temperatures to minimum daily temperature distribution during one month. Three ARIMA models were identified for the time series analyzed with a stational period correspondent to one year. They present the same stational behavior (moving average differenced model) and different non-stational part: autoregressive model (Model 1), moving average differenced model (Model 2) and autoregressive and moving average model (Model 3). At the same time, the results point out that minimum daily temperature (tdmin), for the meteorological stations studied, followed a normal distribution each month with a very similar standard deviation through years. This standard deviation obtained for each station and each month could be used as a risk index for cold months. The application of Model 1 to predict minimum monthly temperatures showed the best FD forecast. This procedure provides a tool for crop managers and crop insurance companies to asses the risk of frost frequency and intensity, so that they can take steps to mitigate against frost damage and estimated the damage that frost would cost. This research was supported by Comunidad de Madrid Research Project 076/92. The cooperation of the Spanish National Meteorological Institute and the Spanish Ministerio de Agricultura, Pesca y Alimentation (MAPA) is gratefully acknowledged.

  9. Forecasting Peak Load Electricity Demand Using Statistics and Rule Based Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Z. Ismail

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Problem statement: Forecasting of electricity load demand is an essential activity and an important function in power system planning and development. It is a prerequisite to power system expansion planning as the world of electricity is dominated by substantial lead times between decision making and its implementation. The importance of demand forecasting needs to be emphasized at all level as the consequences of under or over forecasting the demand are serious and will affect all stakeholders in the electricity supply industry. Approach: If under estimated, the result is serious since plant installation cannot easily be advanced, this will affect the economy, business, loss of time and image. If over estimated, the financial penalty for excess capacity (i.e., over-estimated and wasting of resources. Therefore this study aimed to develop new forecasting model for forecasting electricity load demand which will minimize the error of forecasting. In this study, we explored the development of rule-based method for forecasting electricity peak load demand. The rule-based system synergized human reasoning style of fuzzy systems through the use of set of rules consisting of IF-THEN approximators with the learning and connectionist structure. Prior to the implementation of rule-based models, SARIMAT model and Regression time series were used. Results: Modification of the basic regression model and modeled it using Box-Jenkins auto regressive error had produced a satisfactory and adequate model with 2.41% forecasting error. With rule-based based forecasting, one can apply forecaster expertise and domain knowledge that is appropriate to the conditions of time series. Conclusion: This study showed a significant improvement in forecast accuracy when compared with the traditional time series model. Good domain knowledge of the experts had contributed to the increase in forecast accuracy. In general, the improvement will depend on the conditions of the data

  10. ARIMA MODEL BUILDING AND FORECASTING ON IMPORTS AND EXPORTS OF PAKISTAN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmad Farooqi

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available From the day one, mankind has always been interested in to the future. As the civilization advanced with growing sophistication in all phases of life, the need to look in to the future also grew with it. Today every government, public private organizations, as well as an individual would like to predict and plan for the future. In order to attain a better growth in the economy of a country, modeling and forecasting is the most important tool now a day, this can be done by one of the statistical technique called a Time series analysis. In this paper we tried to build a time series model called ARIMA (Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average model with particular reference of Box and Jenkins approach on annually total Imports and Exports of Pakistan from the year 1947 to the year 2013 with useful statistical software R. Validity of the fitted model is tested using standard statistical techniques. The fitted model is then use to forecast some future values of Imports and export of Pakistan. It is found that an ARIMA (2, 2, 2 and ARIMA (1, 2, 2 model looks suitable to forecast the annual Imports and Exports of Pakistan respectively. We also found an increasing trend both in case of Imports and Exports during this study.

  11. Deploying the ATLAS Metadata Interface (AMI) on the cloud with Jenkins.

    CERN Document Server

    Lambert, Fabian; The ATLAS collaboration

    2016-01-01

    The ATLAS Metadata Interface (AMI) is a mature application of more than 15 years of existence. Mainly used by the ATLAS experiment at CERN, it consists of a very generic tool ecosystem for metadata aggregation and cataloguing. AMI is used by the ATLAS production system, therefore the service must guarantee a high level of availability. We describe our monitoring and administration systems and the Jenkins-based strategy used to dynamically test and deploy cloud OpenStack nodes on demand.

  12. Forecasting international tourism demand from the US, Japan and South Korea to Malaysia: A SARIMA approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borhan, Nurbaizura; Arsad, Zainudin

    2014-07-01

    One of the major contributing sectors for Malaysia's economic growth is tourism. The number of international tourist arrivals to Malaysia has been showing an upward trend as a result of several programs and promotion introduced by the Malaysian government to attract international tourists to the country. This study attempts to model and to forecast tourism demand for Malaysia by three selected countries: the US, Japan and South Korea. This study utilized monthly time series data for the period from January 1999 to December 2012 and employed the well-known Box-Jenkins seasonal ARIMA modeling procedures. Not surprisingly the results show the number of tourist arrivals from the three countries contain strong seasonal component as the arrivals strongly dependent on the season in the country of origin. The findings of the study also show that the number of tourist arrivals from the US and South Korea will continue to increase in the near future. Meanwhile the arrivals from Japan is forecasted to show a drop in the near future and as such tourism authorities in Malaysia need to enhance the promotional effort to attract more tourists from Japan to visit Malaysia.

  13. Jenkins-CI, an Open-Source Continuous Integration System, as a Scientific Data and Image-Processing Platform.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moutsatsos, Ioannis K; Hossain, Imtiaz; Agarinis, Claudia; Harbinski, Fred; Abraham, Yann; Dobler, Luc; Zhang, Xian; Wilson, Christopher J; Jenkins, Jeremy L; Holway, Nicholas; Tallarico, John; Parker, Christian N

    2017-03-01

    High-throughput screening generates large volumes of heterogeneous data that require a diverse set of computational tools for management, processing, and analysis. Building integrated, scalable, and robust computational workflows for such applications is challenging but highly valuable. Scientific data integration and pipelining facilitate standardized data processing, collaboration, and reuse of best practices. We describe how Jenkins-CI, an "off-the-shelf," open-source, continuous integration system, is used to build pipelines for processing images and associated data from high-content screening (HCS). Jenkins-CI provides numerous plugins for standard compute tasks, and its design allows the quick integration of external scientific applications. Using Jenkins-CI, we integrated CellProfiler, an open-source image-processing platform, with various HCS utilities and a high-performance Linux cluster. The platform is web-accessible, facilitates access and sharing of high-performance compute resources, and automates previously cumbersome data and image-processing tasks. Imaging pipelines developed using the desktop CellProfiler client can be managed and shared through a centralized Jenkins-CI repository. Pipelines and managed data are annotated to facilitate collaboration and reuse. Limitations with Jenkins-CI (primarily around the user interface) were addressed through the selection of helper plugins from the Jenkins-CI community.

  14. Virtual box

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stougaard, Malthe Kirkhoff

    2007-01-01

    . This paper reports on the design, implementation and initial evaluation of Virtual Box. Virtual Box attempts to create a physical and engaging context in order to support reciprocal interactions with expressive content. An implemented version of Virtual Box is evaluated in a location-aware environment...

  15. A SARIMA forecasting model to predict the number of cases of dengue in Campinas, State of São Paulo, Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edson Zangiacomi Martinez

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available INTRODUCTION: Forecasting dengue cases in a population by using time-series models can provide useful information that can be used to facilitate the planning of public health interventions. The objective of this article was to develop a forecasting model for dengue incidence in Campinas, southeast Brazil, considering the Box-Jenkins modeling approach. METHODS: The forecasting model for dengue incidence was performed with R software using the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA model. We fitted a model based on the reported monthly incidence of dengue from 1998 to 2008, and we validated the model using the data collected between January and December of 2009. RESULTS: SARIMA (2,1,2 (1,1,112 was the model with the best fit for data. This model indicated that the number of dengue cases in a given month can be estimated by the number of dengue cases occurring one, two and twelve months prior. The predicted values for 2009 are relatively close to the observed values. CONCLUSIONS: The results of this article indicate that SARIMA models are useful tools for monitoring dengue incidence. We also observe that the SARIMA model is capable of representing with relative precision the number of cases in a next year.

  16. Deploying the ATLAS Metadata Interface (AMI) on the cloud with Jenkins

    CERN Document Server

    Lambert, Fabian; The ATLAS collaboration

    2016-01-01

    The ATLAS Metadata Interface (AMI) is a mature application of more than 15 years of existence. Mainly used by the ATLAS experiment at CERN, it consists of a very generic tool ecosystem for metadata aggregation and cataloguing. AMI is used by the ATLAS production system, therefore the service must guarantee a high level of availability. We describe our monitoring system and the Jenkins-based strategy used to dynamically test and deploy cloud OpenStack nodes on demand. Moreover, we describe how to switch to a distant replica in case of downtime.

  17. Forecast Models for Estimating Construction Cost of Box Steel Column%钢结构箱型柱施工费用预估模式的研究

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    徐凌; 吕录娜; 邓光莲

    2016-01-01

    过去钢构制作进度预估及成本估价皆为经验法,导致施工进程须依个案加以规划。本研究利用施工现场生产力数据与影响因子,希望能建置一套施工费用预估模式。研究结果发现箱型柱制作作业具有高度重复及线性循环等特性。因此,本研究以线性回归方法建置钢结构箱型柱作业生产力预估模型。由于建置施工费用预估模式能够规划有效进程、方便管控预算成本及控制施工成本,因此可供钢结构厂预估最佳工期与成本,以减少预算损失[1]。%In the past, steel production cost and progress prediction are empirical method, leading to the construction process in accordance with the case of planning. The construction site and the influence factor of productivity data are used in this study, hoping to establish a prediction model of construction cost. The research results show that the production operation of box column has the characteristics of high repetition and linear cycle. Therefore, based on the linear regression method, this study builds the steel box column work productivity prediction model. Because the implementation of construction cost estimate model can effectively plan the process, conveniently control the budget and the construction cost, it can be used to estimate optimum duration and cost for steel structure factory in order to reduce the loss budget.

  18. Bento Boxes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hasio, Cindy

    2010-01-01

    Bento boxes are common objects in Japanese culture, designed to hold enough lunch for one person. They have individual compartments and sometimes multiple tiers for rice, vegetables, and other side dishes. They are made of materials ranging from wood, cloth, aluminum, or plastic. In general, the greater the number of foods, the better the box is…

  19. Category learning in older adulthood: A study of the Shepard, Hovland, and Jenkins (1961) tasks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rabi, Rahel; Minda, John Paul

    2016-03-01

    Shepard, Hovland, and Jenkins (1961) examined the categorization abilities of younger adults using tasks involving single-dimensional rule learning, disjunctive rule learning, and family resemblance learning. The current study examined category learning in older adults using this well-known category set. Older adults, like younger adults, found category tasks with a single relevant dimension the easiest to learn. In contrast to younger adults, older adults found complex disjunctive rule-based categories harder to learn than family resemblance based categories. Disjunctive rule-based category learning appeared to be the most difficult for older adults to learn because this category set placed the heaviest demands on working memory, which is known to be a cognitive function that declines with normal aging. The authors discuss why complex rule-based category learning is considered more difficult for older adults to learn relative to younger adults, drawing parallels to developmental research.

  20. "Ramona Quimby": Adapted by Len Jenkin from the Ramona Books by Beverly Cleary. Cue Sheet for Students.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aguirre-Sacasa, Roberto

    This performance guide is designed for teachers to use with students before and after a performance of "Ramona Quimby," adapted by Len Jenkin from the Ramona books by Beverly Cleary. The guide, called a "Cuesheet," contains seven activity sheets for use in class, addressing: (1) The Characters (introducing the characters in the…

  1. The Careful Puppet Master: Reducing risk and fortifying acceptance testing with Jenkins CI

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Jason A.; Richman, Gabriel; DeStefano, John; Pryor, James; Rao, Tejas; Strecker-Kellogg, William; Wong, Tony

    2015-12-01

    Centralized configuration management, including the use of automation tools such as Puppet, can greatly increase provisioning speed and efficiency when configuring new systems or making changes to existing systems, reduce duplication of work, and improve automated processes. However, centralized management also brings with it a level of inherent risk: a single change in just one file can quickly be pushed out to thousands of computers and, if that change is not properly and thoroughly tested and contains an error, could result in catastrophic damage to many services, potentially bringing an entire computer facility offline. Change management procedures can—and should—be formalized in order to prevent such accidents. However, like the configuration management process itself, if such procedures are not automated, they can be difficult to enforce strictly. Therefore, to reduce the risk of merging potentially harmful changes into our production Puppet environment, we have created an automated testing system, which includes the Jenkins CI tool, to manage our Puppet testing process. This system includes the proposed changes and runs Puppet on a pool of dozens of RedHat Enterprise Virtualization (RHEV) virtual machines (VMs) that replicate most of our important production services for the purpose of testing. This paper describes our automated test system and how it hooks into our production approval process for automatic acceptance testing. All pending changes that have been pushed to production must pass this validation process before they can be approved and merged into production.

  2. Andy Jenkins Builds Applications Development For Lab-on-a-Chip

    Science.gov (United States)

    2004-01-01

    Andy Jenkins, an engineer for the Lab on a Chip Applications Development program, helped build the Applications Development Unit (ADU-25), a one-of-a-kind facility for controlling and analyzing processes on chips with extreme accuracy. Pressure is used to cause fluids to travel through network of fluid pathways, or micro-channels, embossed on the chips through a process similar to the one used to print circuits on computer chips. To make customized chips for various applications, NASA has an agreement with the U.S. Army's Micro devices and Micro fabrication Laboratory at Redstone Arsenal in Huntsville, Alabama, where NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) is located. The Marshall Center team is also collaborating with scientists at other NASA centers and at universities to develop custom chip designs for many applications, such as studying how fluidic systems work in spacecraft and identifying microbes in self-contained life support systems. Chips could even be designed for use on Earth, such as for detecting deadly microbes in heating and air systems. (NASA/MSFC/D.Stoffer)

  3. Crítica de la historia, política emancipatoria y moralidades postmodernas: la obra de Keith Jenkins

    OpenAIRE

    Bolaños de Miguel, Aitor Manuel

    2011-01-01

    Keith Jenkins is one of the most famous postmodern thinkers in the field of Western historiographical reflection. Without doubt, along with Hayden White and Frank R. Ankersmit, constitute the most influential trio of current postmodern historiography.We will present in this paper the evolution of Jenkins’ work from what we may call a radical critique of academic historiography to what we consider a real dislike to the form of thinking about the past, as it is conceived, practiced and used now...

  4. Einstein's Boxes

    CERN Document Server

    Norsen, T

    2005-01-01

    At the 1927 Solvay conference, Einstein presented a thought experiment intended to demonstrate the incompleteness of the quantum mechanical description of reality. In the following years, the thought experiment was picked up and modified by Einstein, de Broglie, and several other commentators into a simple scenario involving the splitting in half of the wave function of a single particle in a box. In this paper we collect together several formulations of this thought experiment from the existing literature; analyze and assess it from the point of view of the Einstein-Bohr debates, the EPR dilemma, and Bell's theorem; and generally lobby for Einstein's Boxes taking its rightful place alongside similar but historically better-known quantum mechanical thought experiments such as EPR and Schroedinger's Cat.

  5. Forecast Forecasts the Trend

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2009-01-01

    The latest release of "2009 China Luxury Forecast" shows that while the financial crisis is leading a general decline in demand for luxury brands in Europe,America and Japan,the global economic downturn has had limited impact on Chinese luxury consumption and that there is widespread confidence in the future among Chinese luxury consumers.

  6. Forecast Forecasts the Trend

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Wang Ting

    2009-01-01

    @@ The latest release of "2009 China Luxury Forecast" shows that while the financial crisis is leading a general decline in demand for luxury brands in Europe,America and Japan,the global economic downturn has had limited impact on Chinese luxury consumption and that there is widespread confidence in the future among Chinese luxury consumers.

  7. Forecasting and Time Series Analysis of Air Pollutants in Several Area of Malaysia

    OpenAIRE

    Mohd Z. Ibrahim; Roziah Zailan; Marzuki Ismail; Muhd S. Lola

    2009-01-01

    Problem statement: In keeping abreast with Malaysias rapid economic development and to meet the nation's aspiration for an improved quality of life, clean-air legislation limiting industrial and automobile emissions was adopted in 1978. Approach: Yet, to this day, air pollution from both sources still poses a problem for the nation. In order to predict the status of future air quality in Malaysia, a Box-Jenkins ARIMA approach was applied to modeling the time series of monthly maximum 1 h carb...

  8. Short term forecasting of petroleum product demand in France; Modelisation a court terme des consommations de produits petroliers en France

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cadren, M

    1998-06-23

    The analysis of petroleum product demand became a privileged thrust of research following the modifications in terms of structure and level of the petroleum markets since eighties. The greatest importance to econometrics models of Energy demand, joint works about nonstationary data, explained the development of error-correction models and the co-integration. In this context, the short term econometrics modelling of petroleum product demand does not only focus on forecasts but also on the measure of the gain acquired from using error-correction techniques and co-integration. It`s filling to take the influence of technical improvement and environment pressures into account in econometrics modelling of petroleum products demand. The first part presents the evolution of Energy Demand in France and more particularly the petroleum product demand since 1986. The objective is to determine the main characteristics of each product, which will help us to analyse and validate the econometrics models. The second part focus on the recent developments in times series modelling. We study the problem of nonstationary data and expose different unit root tests. We examine the main approaches to univariate and multivariate modelling with nonstationary data and distinguish the forecasts of the latter`s. The third part is intended to applications; its objective is to illustrate the theoretic developments of the second part with a comparison between the performances of different approaches (approach Box and Jenkins, Johansen approach`s and structural approach). The models will be applied to the main French petroleum market. The observed asymmetrical demand behaviour is also considered. (author) 153 refs.

  9. Forecasting Skill

    Science.gov (United States)

    1981-01-01

    indicated that forecasting experience has little relationship to forecasting performance. In the latter three studies, neophyte forecasters became... Europe . Within a few months after a new commander was assigned, this unit’s performance rose to first place in the theater and remained there

  10. Crítica de la historia, política emancipatoria y moralidades postmodernas: la obra de Keith Jenkins

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bolaños de Miguel, Aitor Manuel

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Keith Jenkins is one of the most famous postmodern thinkers in the field of Western historiographical reflection. Without doubt, along with Hayden White and Frank R. Ankersmit, constitute the most influential trio of current postmodern historiography.We will present in this paper the evolution of Jenkins’ work from what we may call a radical critique of academic historiography to what we consider a real dislike to the form of thinking about the past, as it is conceived, practiced and used nowadays. We divided this article in two sections to accommodate our insight to these two key moments in the development of his theory and his work: the moment of the diffusion of postmodern critique to historiography and the time of the expulsion of the historiography of any emancipated political project.

    Keith Jenkins es uno de los pensadores postmodernos más conocidos en el ámbito de la reflexión historiográfica occidental. Sin duda, junto con Hayden White y Frank R. Ankersmit, conforma el trío más influyente de la corriente historiográfica postmoderna. Vamos a exponer en este trabajo la evolución de la obra de Jenkins desde lo que llamamos una crítica radical a la historiografía académica hasta lo que podemos considerar una auténtica aversión a la forma de aprehensión del pasado, tal y como es concebido, practicado y usado en la actualidad. Hemos dividido en dos apartados nuestra exposición para dar cabida así a estos dos momentos clave en el desarrollo de su teoría y de su obra: el momento difusor de la crítica postmoderna a la historiografía y el momento de la expulsión de la historiografía de cualquier proyecto político emancipador.

  11. Demand forecasting

    OpenAIRE

    Gregor, Belčec

    2011-01-01

    Companies operate in an increasingly challenging environment that requires them to continuously improve all areas of the business process. Demand forecasting is one area in manufacturing companies where we can hope to gain great advantages. Improvements in forecasting can result in cost savings throughout the supply chain, improve the reliability of information and the quality of the service for our customers. In the company Danfoss Trata, d. o. o. we did not have a system for demand forecast...

  12. Laryngeal (Voice Box) Cancer

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... ENTCareers Marketplace Find an ENT Doctor Near You Voice Box (Laryngeal) Cancer Voice Box (Laryngeal) Cancer Patient Health Information News media ... laryngeal cancer can be severe with respect to voice, breathing, or swallowing. It is fundamentally a preventable ...

  13. Strategic Forecasting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Duus, Henrik Johannsen

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this article is to present an overview of the area of strategic forecasting and its research directions and to put forward some ideas for improving management decisions. Design/methodology/approach: This article is conceptual but also informed by the author’s long contact...... as a rebirth of long range planning, albeit with new methods and theories. Firms should make the building of strategic forecasting capability a priority. Research limitations/implications: The article subdivides strategic forecasting into three research avenues and suggests avenues for further research efforts...... a somewhat neglected area. It also suggests several new practical ideas that may improve management decisions....

  14. Innovation Forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    1997-11-01

    relating to “ injectors ”) to develop a map of the related technologies [33.] Another approach is to develop a “tree” showing a system branching into its...additional terms such as “trend,” “forecast,” “ delphi ,” “assessment,” and so forth may call up other forecasts and assessments relating to the topic...present and future engine technologies. A preliminary search (Step 1, Table 5) located prior forecasts, in particular, a Delphi study [36]. The Delphi

  15. Time series analysis of dengue incidence in Guadeloupe, French West Indies: Forecasting models using climate variables as predictors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ruche Guy

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background During the last decades, dengue viruses have spread throughout the Americas region, with an increase in the number of severe forms of dengue. The surveillance system in Guadeloupe (French West Indies is currently operational for the detection of early outbreaks of dengue. The goal of the study was to improve this surveillance system by assessing a modelling tool to predict the occurrence of dengue epidemics few months ahead and thus to help an efficient dengue control. Methods The Box-Jenkins approach allowed us to fit a Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA model of dengue incidence from 2000 to 2006 using clinical suspected cases. Then, this model was used for calculating dengue incidence for the year 2007 compared with observed data, using three different approaches: 1 year-ahead, 3 months-ahead and 1 month-ahead. Finally, we assessed the impact of meteorological variables (rainfall, temperature and relative humidity on the prediction of dengue incidence and outbreaks, incorporating them in the model fitting the best. Results The 3 months-ahead approach was the most appropriate for an effective and operational public health response, and the most accurate (Root Mean Square Error, RMSE = 0.85. Relative humidity at lag-7 weeks, minimum temperature at lag-5 weeks and average temperature at lag-11 weeks were variables the most positively correlated to dengue incidence in Guadeloupe, meanwhile rainfall was not. The predictive power of SARIMA models was enhanced by the inclusion of climatic variables as external regressors to forecast the year 2007. Temperature significantly affected the model for better dengue incidence forecasting (p-value = 0.03 for minimum temperature lag-5, p-value = 0.02 for average temperature lag-11 but not humidity. Minimum temperature at lag-5 weeks was the best climatic variable for predicting dengue outbreaks (RMSE = 0.72. Conclusion Temperature improves dengue outbreaks forecasts

  16. Exposure Forecaster

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — The Exposure Forecaster Database (ExpoCastDB) is EPA's database for aggregating chemical exposure information and can be used to help with chemical exposure...

  17. Strategic Forecasting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Duus, Henrik Johannsen

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this article is to present an overview of the area of strategic forecasting and its research directions and to put forward some ideas for improving management decisions. Design/methodology/approach: This article is conceptual but also informed by the author’s long contact...... and collaboration with various business firms. It starts by presenting an overview of the area and argues that the area is as much a way of thinking as a toolbox of theories and methodologies. It then spells out a number of research directions and ideas for management. Findings: Strategic forecasting is seen...... as a rebirth of long range planning, albeit with new methods and theories. Firms should make the building of strategic forecasting capability a priority. Research limitations/implications: The article subdivides strategic forecasting into three research avenues and suggests avenues for further research efforts...

  18. Forecasting metal prices: Do forecasters herd?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pierdzioch, C.; Rulke, J. C.; Stadtmann, G.

    2013-01-01

    We analyze more than 20,000 forecasts of nine metal prices at four different forecast horizons. We document that forecasts are heterogeneous and report that anti-herding appears to be a source of this heterogeneity. Forecaster anti-herding reflects strategic interactions among forecasters...

  19. Straw in a Box

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jerrard, Richard; Schneider, Joel; Smallberg, Ralph; Wetzel, John

    2006-01-01

    A problem on a state's high school exit exam asked for the longest straw that would fit in a box. The examiners apparently wanted the length of a diagonal of the box, but the figure accompanying the question suggested otherwise--that the radius of the straw be considered. This article explores that more general problem.

  20. ALUMINUM BOX BUNDLING PRESS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iosif DUMITRESCU

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available In municipal solid waste, aluminum is the main nonferrous metal, approximately 80- 85% of the total nonferrous metals. The income per ton gained from aluminum recuperation is 20 times higher than from glass, steel boxes or paper recuperation. The object of this paper is the design of a 300 kN press for aluminum box bundling.

  1. Shaping 3-D boxes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stenholt, Rasmus; Madsen, Claus B.

    2011-01-01

    Enabling users to shape 3-D boxes in immersive virtual environments is a non-trivial problem. In this paper, a new family of techniques for creating rectangular boxes of arbitrary position, orientation, and size is presented and evaluated. These new techniques are based solely on position data...

  2. The mirror box

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, Gene; Mathieson, Don

    2001-11-01

    The mirror box is an old standby in magic shows and an impressive demonstration of the law of reflection for the physics instructor. The box creates the illusion of an object floating in space by the use of a plane mirror.

  3. Boxing with neutrino oscillations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wagner, D. J.; Weiler, Thomas J.

    1999-06-01

    We develop a characterization of neutrino oscillations based on the coefficients of the oscillating terms. These coefficients are individually observable; although they are quartic in the elements of the unitary mixing matrix, they are independent of the conventions chosen for the angle and phase parametrization of the mixing matrix. We call these reparametrization-invariant observables ``boxes'' because of their geometric relation to the mixing matrix, and because of their association with the Feynman box diagram that describes oscillations in field theory. The real parts of the boxes are the coefficients for the CP- or T-even oscillation modes, while the imaginary parts are the coefficients for the CP- or T-odd oscillation modes. Oscillation probabilities are linear in the boxes, so measurements can straightforwardly determine values for the boxes (which can then be manipulated to yield magnitudes of mixing matrix elements). We examine the effects of unitarity on the boxes and discuss the reduction of the number of boxes to a minimum basis set. For the three-generation case, we explicitly construct the basis. Using the box algebra, we show that CP violation may be inferred from measurements of neutrino flavor mixing even when the oscillatory factors have averaged. The framework presented here will facilitate general analyses of neutrino oscillations among n>=3 flavors.

  4. General forecasting correcting formula

    OpenAIRE

    2009-01-01

    A general forecasting correcting formula, as a framework for long-use and standardized forecasts, is created. The formula provides new forecasting resources and new possibilities for expansion of forecasting including economic forecasting into the areas of municipal needs, middle-size and small-size business and, even, to individual forecasting.

  5. Final Environmental Assessment Realignment of Jenkins Armed Forces Reserve Center (AFRC), Kirtland Air Force Base, New Mexico, BRAC 2005

    Science.gov (United States)

    2007-05-01

    Barbehenn, Jacinda M.; EIFS 5.0 Economic Impact Forecast System, User’s Reference Manual; USACERL Technical Report TA-94/03; July 1994. Isard , W...Methods of Regional Analysis, MIT Press, 1960. Isard , W. and Langford,T., Regional Input-Output Study: Recollections, Reflections, and Diverse Notes

  6. Pion in a Box

    CERN Document Server

    Bietenholz, W; Horsley, R; Nakamura, Y; Pleiter, D; Rakow, P E L; Schierholz, G; Zanotti, J M

    2010-01-01

    The residual mass of the pion in a finite spatial box at vanishing quark masses is computed with two flavors of dynamical clover fermions. The result is compared with predictions of chiral perturbation theory in the delta regime.

  7. Voice box (image)

    Science.gov (United States)

    The larynx, or voice box, is located in the neck and performs several important functions in the body. The larynx is involved in swallowing, breathing, and voice production. Sound is produced when the air which ...

  8. Boxes and Shelves

    OpenAIRE

    Hughes, Dean

    2008-01-01

    The Boxes and Shelves series from 2008 are are all made from the backing card from discarded writing pads. Boxes and Shelves extended my investigation of quotidian materials and their relationship to the origins of creative toil. Since 1996 my research has sought to identify and locate instances where the 'unmeasurable' meets the measurable. I have consistently employed a range of utilitarian materials such as bus seats, bus tickets, puddles, A4 writing paper, to present a series of 'problem ...

  9. [Boxing: traumatology and prevention].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cabanis, Emmanuel-Alain; Iba-Zizen, Marie-Thérèse; Perez, Georges; Senegas, Xavier; Furgoni, Julien; Pineau, Jean-Claude; Louquet, Jean-Louis; Henrion, Roger

    2010-10-01

    In 1986, a surgeon who, as an amateur boxer himself was concerned with boxers' health, approached a pioneering Parisian neuroimaging unit. Thus began a study in close cooperation with the French Boxing Federation, spanning 25 years. In a first series of 52 volunteer boxers (13 amateurs and 39 professionals), during which MRI gradually replaced computed tomography, ten risk factors were identified, which notably included boxing style: only one of 40 "stylists" with a good boxing technique had cortical atrophy (4.5 %), compared to 15 % of "sloggers". Changes to the French Boxing Federation rules placed the accent on medical prevention. The second series, of 247 boxers (81 amateurs and 266 professionals), showed a clear improvement, as lesions were suspected in 14 individuals, of which only 4 (1.35 %) were probably due to boxing. The third and fourth series were part of a protocol called "Brain-Boxing-Ageing", which included 76 boxers (11 having suffered KOs) and 120 MRI scans, with reproducible CT and MRI acquisitions (9 sequences with 1.5 T then 3 T, and CT). MRI anomalies secondary to boxing were found in 11 % of amateurs and 38 % of professionals (atrophy, high vascular T2 signal areas, 2 cases of post-KO subdural bleeding). CT revealed sinus damage in 13 % of the amateurs and 19 % of the professionals. The risk of acute and chronic facial and brain damage was underline, along with detailed precautionary measures (organization of bouts, role of the referee and ringside doctor, and application of French Boxing Federation rules).

  10. Infectious disease and boxing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    King, Osric S

    2009-10-01

    There are no unique boxing diseases but certain factors contributing to the spread of illnesses apply strongly to the boxer, coach, and the training facility. This article examines the nature of the sport of boxing and its surrounding environment, and the likelihood of spread of infection through airborne, contact, or blood-borne routes of transmission. Evidence from other sports such as running, wrestling, and martial arts is included to help elucidate the pathophysiologic elements that could be identified in boxers.

  11. Nonneurologic emergencies in boxing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coletta, Domenic F

    2009-10-01

    Professional boxing has done an admirable job in promoting safety standards in its particular sport. However, injuries occur during the normal course of competition and, unfortunately, an occasional life-threatening emergency may arise. Although most common medical emergencies in boxing are injuries from closed head trauma, in this article those infrequent but potentially catastrophic nonneurologic conditions are reviewed along with some less serious emergencies that the physician must be prepared to address.

  12. Probabilistic runoff volume forecasting in risk-based optimization for RTC of urban drainage systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Löwe, Roland; Vezzaro, Luca; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen;

    2016-01-01

    overflow risk. The stochastic control framework and the performance of the runoff forecasting models are tested in a case study in Copenhagen (76 km2 with 6 sub-catchments and 7 control points) using 2-h radar rainfall forecasts and inlet flows to control points computed from a variety of noisy....../oscillating in-sewer measurements. Radar rainfall forecasts as model inputs yield considerably lower runoff forecast skills than “perfect” gauge-based rainfall observations (ex-post hindcasting). Nevertheless, the stochastic grey-box models clearly outperform benchmark forecast models based on exponential......This article demonstrates the incorporation of stochastic grey-box models for urban runoff forecasting into a full-scale, system-wide control setup where setpoints are dynamically optimized considering forecast uncertainty and sensitivity of overflow locations in order to reduce combined sewer...

  13. Cable Tester Box

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Jason H.

    2011-01-01

    Cables are very important electrical devices that carry power and signals across multiple instruments. Any fault in a cable can easily result in a catastrophic outcome. Therefore, verifying that all cables are built to spec is a very important part of Electrical Integration Procedures. Currently, there are two methods used in lab for verifying cable connectivity. (1) Using a Break-Out Box and an ohmmeter this method is time-consuming but effective for custom cables and (2) Commercial Automated Cable Tester Boxes this method is fast, but to test custom cables often requires pre-programmed configuration files, and cables used on spacecraft are often uniquely designed for specific purposes. The idea is to develop a semi-automatic continuity tester that reduces human effort in cable testing, speeds up the electrical integration process, and ensures system safety. The JPL-Cable Tester Box is developed to check every single possible electrical connection in a cable in parallel. This system indicates connectivity through LED (light emitting diode) circuits. Users can choose to test any pin/shell (test node) with a single push of a button, and any other nodes that are shorted to the test node, even if they are in the same connector, will light up with the test node. The JPL-Cable Tester Boxes offers the following advantages: 1. Easy to use: The architecture is simple enough that it only takes 5 minutes for anyone to learn how operate the Cable Tester Box. No pre-programming and calibration are required, since this box only checks continuity. 2. Fast: The cable tester box checks all the possible electrical connections in parallel at a push of a button. If a cable normally takes half an hour to test, using the Cable Tester Box will improve the speed to as little as 60 seconds to complete. 3. Versatile: Multiple cable tester boxes can be used together. As long as all the boxes share the same electrical potential, any number of connectors can be tested together.

  14. Combined Effect of Slip Velocity and Roughness on the Jenkins Model Based Ferrofluid Lubrication of a Curved Rough Annular Squeeze Film

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    JIMITKUMAR PATEL

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper theoretically analyzes the combined effect of slip velocity and surface roughness on the performance of Jenkins model based ferrofluid squeeze film in curved annular plates. The effect of slip velocity has been studied resorting to the slip model of Beavers and Joseph. The stochastically averaging method of Christensen and Tonders has been deployed for studying the effect of surface roughness. The pressure distribution is derived by solving the associated stochastically averaged Reynolds type equation with suitable boundary conditions, leading to the computation of load carrying capacity. The graphical representations reveal that the transverse surface roughness adversely affects the bearing performance. However, Jenkins model based ferrofluid lubrication offers some scopes in minimizing this adverse effect when the slip parameter is kept at minimum. Of course, an appropriate choice of curvature parameters adds to this positive effect in the case of negatively skewed roughness. Moreover, it is established that this type of bearing system supports certain amount of load; even when there is no flow which does not happen in the case of conventional lubricant based bearing system.

  15. kbpt Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  16. kali Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  17. kwmc Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  18. kont Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  19. kcrg Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  20. kbpi Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  1. kaus Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  2. ktup Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  3. kolm Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  4. kdfw Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  5. kbur Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  6. kfay Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  7. ktxk Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  8. kyng Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  9. kpou Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  10. ksrq Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  11. pmdy Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  12. kacy Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  13. ksmx Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  14. ksbp Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  15. kavl Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  16. kjct Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  17. kpsc Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  18. keyw Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  19. klar Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  20. patk Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  1. kogd Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  2. klse Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  3. khdc Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  4. kmaf Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  5. kgsp Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  6. kdsm Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  7. paga Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  8. kosh Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  9. ksns Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  10. koaj Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  11. kmss Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  12. kbyi Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  13. kcnm Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  14. pasi Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  15. keat Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  16. kpuw Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  17. kcon Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  18. krut Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  19. padq Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  20. ktyr Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  1. kgfk Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  2. kdet Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  3. kjac Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  4. kfoe Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  5. pasc Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  6. koun Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  7. koak Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  8. klee Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  9. kcak Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  10. kiag Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  11. kbmg Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  12. kpdx Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  13. tjsj Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  14. kpae Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  15. kpbi Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  16. kbna Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  17. kact Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  18. kpia Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  19. krow Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  20. kbtv Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  1. kbke Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  2. krap Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  3. krog Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  4. pajn Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  5. kmci Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  6. krwl Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  7. kpsp Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  8. kcmi Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  9. ktlh Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  10. kteb Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  11. kbis Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  12. kagc Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  13. krbg Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  14. kelm Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  15. khln Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  16. kgeg Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  17. kazo Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  18. klan Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  19. ksmn Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  20. klbx Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  1. kbvi Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  2. ksjc Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  3. klnd Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  4. klru Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  5. kbrl Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  6. pawg Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  7. klaf Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  8. kgon Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  9. ksdy Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  10. ksea Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  11. kofk Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  12. krdg Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  13. kdug Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  14. kbwg Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  15. kbbg Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  16. krdu Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  17. kiwd Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  18. krbl Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  19. kssf Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  20. ksaw Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  1. kmot Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  2. kiso Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  3. kgck Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  4. kcvg Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  5. pafa Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  6. kcrq Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  7. ksun Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  8. khdn Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  9. pabe Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  10. ktop Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  11. ktrk Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  12. krvs Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  13. phny Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  14. ktcl Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  15. kmrb Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  16. kcub Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  17. kpdt Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  18. ptkk Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  19. kcsm Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  20. ksfo Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  1. kcgi Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  2. kjhw Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  3. kdab Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  4. kecp Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  5. kmls Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  6. kroc Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  7. kfod Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  8. kmia Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  9. Electricity consumption forecasting using singular spectrum analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Moisés Lima de Menezes

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available El Análisis Espectral Singular (AES es una técnica no paramétrica que permite la descomposición de una serie de tiempo en una componente de señal y otra de ruido. De este modo, AES es una técnica útil para la extracción de la tendencia, la suavización y el filtro una serie de tiempo. En este artículo se investiga el efecto sobre el desempeño los modelos de Holt-Winters y de Box & Jenkins al ser aplicados a una serie de tiempo filtrada por AES. Tres diferentes metodologías son evaluadas con el enfoque de AES: Análisis de Componentes Principales (ACP, análisis de conglomerados y análisis gráfico de vectores singulares. Con el fin de ilustrar y comparar dichas metodologías, en este trabajo también se presentaron los principales resultados de un experimento computacional para el consumo residencial mensual de electricidad en Brasil.

  10. The BOXES Methodology Black Box Dynamic Control

    CERN Document Server

    Russell, David W

    2012-01-01

    Robust control mechanisms customarily require knowledge of the system’s describing equations which may be of the high order differential type.  In order to produce these equations, mathematical models can often be derived and correlated with measured dynamic behavior.  There are two flaws in this approach one is the level of inexactness introduced by linearizations and the other when no model is apparent.  Several years ago a new genre of control systems came to light that are much less dependent on differential models such as fuzzy logic and genetic algorithms. Both of these soft computing solutions require quite considerable a priori system knowledge to create a control scheme and sometimes complicated training program before they can be implemented in a real world dynamic system. Michie and Chambers’ BOXES methodology created a black box system that was designed to control a mechanically unstable system with very little a priori system knowledge, linearization or approximation.  All the method need...

  11. Depth in box spaces.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pont, Sylvia C; Nefs, Harold T; van Doorn, Andrea J; Wijntjes, Maarten W A; Te Pas, Susan F; de Ridder, Huib; Koenderink, Jan J

    2012-01-01

    Human observers adjust the frontal view of a wireframe box on a computer screen so as to look equally deep and wide, so that in the intended setting the box looks like a cube. Perspective cues are limited to the size-distance effect, since all angles are fixed. Both the size on the screen, and the viewing distance from the observer to the screen were varied. All observers prefer a template view of a cube over a veridical rendering, independent of picture size and viewing distance. If the rendering shows greater or lesser foreshortening than the template, the box appears like a long corridor or a shallow slab, that is, like a 'deformed' cube. Thus observers ignore 'veridicality'. This does not fit an 'inverse optics' model. We discuss a model of 'vision as optical user interface'.

  12. A Study of Demand Forecasting in the Defense Logistics Agency

    Science.gov (United States)

    1986-02-01

    methods employed backcasting in order to determine initial values for the key terms in the equations. Backcasting , a technique introduced by Box and...Management Simulation (USIMS) is a simulation model which can be used to examine the impacts of alternative inventory policies (in this case forecast...forecasts. Individual values were obtained for the smoothing term, alpha, and these *values were used in the comparisons. The backcasting technique * was

  13. Opto-Box

    CERN Document Server

    Bertsche, David; The ATLAS collaboration; Welch, Steven; Smith, Dale Shane; Che, Siinn; Gan, K.K.; Boyd, George Russell Jr

    2015-01-01

    The opto-box is a custom mini-crate for housing optical modules, which process and transfer optoelectronic data. The system tightly integrates electrical, mechanical, and thermal functionality into a small package of size 35x10x8 cm^3. Special attention was given to ensure proper shielding, grounding, cooling, high reliability, and environmental tolerance. The custom modules, which incorporate Application Specific Integrated Circuits (ASICs), were developed through a cycle of rigorous testing and redesign. In total, fourteen opto-boxes have been installed and loaded with modules on the ATLAS detector. They are currently in operation as part of the LHC run 2 data read-out chain.

  14. Eye trauma in boxing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corrales, Gustavo; Curreri, Anthony

    2009-10-01

    In boxing, along with a few other sports, trauma is inherent to the nature of the sport; therefore it is considered a high-risk sport for ocular injuries. The long-term morbidity of ocular injuries suffered by boxers is difficult to estimate due to the lack of structured long-term follow-up of these athletes. Complications of blunt ocular trauma may develop years after the athlete has retired from the ring and is no longer considered to be at risk for boxing-related injuries. This article describes the wide range of eye injuries a boxer can sustain, and their immediate and long-term clinical management.

  15. Hydrophobic, Porous Battery Boxes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bragg, Bobby J.; Casey, John E., Jr.

    1995-01-01

    Boxes made of porous, hydrophobic polymers developed to contain aqueous potassium hydroxide electrolyte solutions of zinc/air batteries while allowing air to diffuse in as needed for operation. Used on other types of batteries for in-cabin use in which electrolytes aqueous and from which gases generated during operation must be vented without allowing electrolytes to leak out.

  16. Mystery Box Marvels

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santos, Joel; Centurio, Tina

    2012-01-01

    What happens in the first week of school could very well set the stage for the rest of the school year. Setting high standards for science activities based in inquiry can start on the first day of science class and develop as the year unfolds. With the use of simple, readily available, inexpensive materials, an efficient mystery box lesson can be…

  17. Analysis of Tendencies Towards Changes in Temperatures of Railway Vehicle Axle Boxes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olegas Lunys

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available The paper analyzes variations in the temperature of axle-box heating of railroad rolling stock considering two modes of the train - driving and parking position. Additionally, the article describes the influence of the axle load and season on the heat of the axle-box, forecasts intolerable residual resources and explains a possibility of detecting likely breakage at the very beginning of defects. The paper also deals with scientific literature related to axle-box heating and focuses on the conducted practical and theoretical experiments. The carried out research has established the rates of operating heating and critical heating. The application of numerical values for the algorithm of automatic control devices could help with detecting the breakdowns of the axle-box before they reach a critical state and assist in forecasting residual operating resources.

  18. Operational river discharge forecasting in poorly gauged basins: the Kavango River basin case study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bauer-Gottwein, Peter; Jensen, Iris Hedegaard; Guzinski, R.;

    2015-01-01

    Operational probabilistic forecasts of river discharge are essential for effective water resources management. Many studies have addressed this topic using different approaches ranging from purely statistical black-box approaches to physically based and distributed modeling schemes employing data...... assimilation techniques. However, few studies have attempted to develop operational probabilistic forecasting approaches for large and poorly gauged river basins. The objective of this study is to develop open-source software tools to support hydrologic forecasting and integrated water resources management...

  19. Making Connections with Memory Boxes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whatley, April

    2000-01-01

    Addresses the use of children's literature within the social studies classroom on the topic of memory boxes. Includes discussions of four books: (1) "The Littlest Angel" (Charles Tazewell); (2) "The Hundred Penny Box" (Sharon Bell Mathis); (3) "Wilfrid Gordon McDonald Partridge" (Mem Fox); and (4) "The Memory Box" (Mary Bahr). (CMK)

  20. Opto-Box

    CERN Document Server

    Bertsche, David; The ATLAS collaboration

    2015-01-01

    The opto-box is a custom mini-crate for housing optical modules, which process and transfer optoelectronic data. Many novel solutions were developed for the custom design and manufacturing. The system tightly integrates electrical, mechanical, and thermal functionality into a small package of size 35x10x8 cm$^{3}$. Special attention was given to ensure proper shielding, grounding, cooling, high reliability, and environmental tolerance. The custom modules, which incorporate Application Specific Integrated Circuits (ASICs), were developed through a cycle of rigorous testing and redesign. In total, fourteen opto-boxes have been installed and loaded with modules on the ATLAS detector. They are currently in operation as part of the LHC run 2 data read-out chain.

  1. Boxed Permutation Pattern Matching

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Amit, Mika; Bille, Philip; Cording, Patrick Hagge;

    2016-01-01

    the goal is to only find the boxed subsequences of T that are order-isomorphic to P. This problem was introduced by Bruner and Lackner who showed that it can be solved in O(n3) time. Cho et al. [CPM 2015] gave an O(n2m) time algorithm and improved it to O(n2 logm). In this paper we present a solution...

  2. The Box Method

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Peter Vilhelm

    The velocity level in a room ventilated by jet ventilation is strongly influenced by the supply conditions. The momentum flow in the supply jets controls the air movement in the room and, therefore, it is very important that the inlet conditions and the numerical method can generate a satisfactory...... description of this momentum flow. The Box Method is a practical method for the description of an Air Terminal Device which will save grid points and ensure the right level of the momentum flow....

  3. The Electronic Battle Box

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gouin, Denis; Turcotte, Guy; Lebel, Eric; Gilbert, Annie

    2000-08-01

    The Electronic Battle Box is an integrated suite of planning and decision-aid tools specially designed to facilitate Canadian Armed Force Officers during their training and during their tasks of preparing and conducting military operations. It is the result of a collaborative effort between the Defence Research Establishment Valcartier, the Directorate of Army Doctrine (DAD), the Directorate of Land Requirements (DLR), the G4 staff of 1Cdn Div HQ and CGI Information and Management Consultants Inc. Distributed on CD-ROM, the Electronic Battle Box contains efficient and user-friendly tools that significantly reduce the planning time for military operations and ensure staff officers a better focus on significant tasks. Among the tools are an OrBat Browser and an Equipment Browser allowing to view and edit military organizations, a Task Browser providing facilities to prepare plans using Gantt charts, a Logistic Planner allowing to estimate supply requirements applying complex calculations, and Road, Air and Rail Movement Planners. EBB also provides staff officers with a large set of doctrinal documents in an electronic format. This paper provides an overview of the various tools of the Electronic Battle Box.

  4. Preformed beading and boxing appliance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reddy, J Sashi Deepth; Padmanabhan, T V; Veerareddy, Chandrika; Chandrasekhar, M; Narendra, R

    2013-03-01

    Conventional beading and boxing procedure is time consuming and involves application of heat that might distort green stick compound used for border molding. Earlier studies regarding beading and boxing methods have shown usage of various materials that were disposable and that cannot be recycled. To reduce the time consumed for beading and boxing procedure and to make this procedure cost-effective by using recyclable beading material, "Preformed boxing appliance" with moldable clay meant for beading the secondary impression was used. Secondary impression was supported by 3 studs provided on the floor of the boxing appliance. The cast was poured. The duration for the entire procedure was much less than the conventional procedure.

  5. General correcting formula of forecasting?

    OpenAIRE

    2009-01-01

    A general correcting formula of forecasting (as a framework for long-use and standardized forecasts) is proposed. The formula provides new forecasting resources and areas of application including economic forecasting.

  6. Development of golf tourism and golf tourism demand forecasts in Turkey: a study of Belek region Türkiye’de golf turizminin gelişimi ve golf turizmi talebi tahminleri: Belek bölgesine yönelik bir çalışma

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Murat Çuhadar

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Golf tourism has become one of the rapidly developing tourism types in Turkey, especially in the Belek region. In this study, detailed information about the development of golf tourism in Turkey from past to present was provided and  golf tourism demand to Belek region which is a major golf tourism destinastion in the world and Turkey was modeled and forecasted monthly by Box-Jenkins methodology for the May 2013 –December 2014 period. As a measure of golf tourism demand, number of monthly golf games were taken in the study and the monthly number of golf game statistics of January 2001 – April 2013 in the golf establishments in Belek tourism center were used. By producing ex-ante forecasts it is aimed to create a basis for tourism development plans prepared by the management of private and public sector and to provide support for administrators’ monthly planning decisions.Golf turizmi, Belek bölgesi başta olmak üzere Türkiye’de hızla gelişen turizm türlerinden biri haline gelmiştir. Bu çalışmada, Türkiye’de golf turizminin geçmişten günümüze gelişimi hakkında ayrıntılı bilgiler sunularak, Türkiye’nin ve dünyanın önde gelen golf turizmi merkezlerinden olan Belek turizm merkezine yönelik golf turizmi talebi Box-Jenkins metodoljisi ile modellenmiş ve 2013 (Mayıs itibariyle ve 2014 yılları için aylık olarak tahmin edilmiştir. Çalışmada golf turizmi talebinin ölçüsü olarak golf oyun sayıları alınmış ve Ocak 2001 – Nisan 2013 döneminde Belek turizm merkezindeki golf tesislerinde gerçekleşen aylık golf oyun sayısı istatistiklerinden yararlanılmıştır. Yapılan tahminler ile, özel sektör ve kamu yönetimleri tarafından hazırlanan turistik gelişme planları için bir zemin oluşturulması ve ilgili yöneticilerin aylık planlamalarında karar almalarına destek sağlanması amaçlanmıştır.

  7. Benchmarking judgmentally adjusted forecasts

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ph.H.B.F. Franses (Philip Hans); L.P. de Bruijn (Bert)

    2015-01-01

    markdownabstractMany publicly available macroeconomic forecasts are judgmentally-adjusted model-based forecasts. In practice usually only a single final forecast is available, and not the underlying econometric model, nor are the size and reason for adjustment known. Hence, the relative weights give

  8. Projection optics box

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hale, Layton C.; Malsbury, Terry; Hudyma, Russell M.; Parker, John M.

    2000-01-01

    A projection optics box or assembly for use in an optical assembly, such as in an extreme ultraviolet lithography (EUVL) system using 10-14 nm soft x-ray photons. The projection optics box utilizes a plurality of highly reflective optics or mirrors, each mounted on a precision actuator, and which reflects an optical image, such as from a mask, in the EUVL system onto a point of use, such as a target or silicon wafer, the mask, for example, receiving an optical signal from a source assembly, such as a developed from laser system, via a series of highly reflective mirrors of the EUVL system. The plurality of highly reflective optics or mirrors are mounted in a housing assembly comprised of a series of bulkheads having wall members secured together to form a unit construction of maximum rigidity. Due to the precision actuators, the mirrors must be positioned precisely and remotely in tip, tilt, and piston (three degrees of freedom), while also providing exact constraint.

  9. Probabilistic Forecasting for On-line Operation of Urban Drainage Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Löwe, Roland

    -box model approach. Building on previous work concerning the development of conceptual stochastic rainfall-runoff model structures, we - investigate approaches for the calibration of model parameters that tune the models for multistep predictions, - develop an approach for generating probabilistic multistep......This thesis deals with the generation of probabilistic forecasts in urban hydrology. In particular, we focus on the case of runoff forecasting for real-time control (RTC) on horizons of up to two hours. For the generation of probabilistic on-line runoff forecasts, we apply the stochastic grey...... predictions of runoff volume in an on-line setting, - develop a new approach for dynamically modelling runoff forecast uncertainty. We investigate how rainfall inputs can be optimally combined for runoff forecasting with stochastic grey-box models and what effect different types of radar rainfall measurements...

  10. The Classroom Animal: Box Turtles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kramer, David C.

    1986-01-01

    Provides basic information on the anatomy, physiology, behaviors, and distribution patterns of the box turtle. Offers suggestions for the turtle's care and maintenance in a classroom environment. (ML)

  11. Boxing-related head injuries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jayarao, Mayur; Chin, Lawrence S; Cantu, Robert C

    2010-10-01

    Fatalities in boxing are most often due to traumatic brain injury that occurs in the ring. In the past 30 years, significant improvements in ringside and medical equipment, safety, and regulations have resulted in a dramatic reduction in the fatality rate. Nonetheless, the rate of boxing-related head injuries, particularly concussions, remains unknown, due in large part to its variability in clinical presentation. Furthermore, the significance of repeat concussions sustained when boxing is just now being understood. In this article, we identify the clinical manifestations, pathophysiology, and management of boxing-related head injuries, and discuss preventive strategies to reduce head injuries sustained by boxers.

  12. Evaluating probability forecasts

    CERN Document Server

    Lai, Tze Leung; Shen, David Bo; 10.1214/11-AOS902

    2012-01-01

    Probability forecasts of events are routinely used in climate predictions, in forecasting default probabilities on bank loans or in estimating the probability of a patient's positive response to treatment. Scoring rules have long been used to assess the efficacy of the forecast probabilities after observing the occurrence, or nonoccurrence, of the predicted events. We develop herein a statistical theory for scoring rules and propose an alternative approach to the evaluation of probability forecasts. This approach uses loss functions relating the predicted to the actual probabilities of the events and applies martingale theory to exploit the temporal structure between the forecast and the subsequent occurrence or nonoccurrence of the event.

  13. Inaccuracy in traffic forecasts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Flyvbjerg, Bent; Holm, Mette K. Skamris; Buhl, Søren Ladegaard

    2006-01-01

    that forecasters generally do a poor job of estimating the demand for transportation infrastructure projects. The result is substantial downside financial and economic risk. Forecasts have not become more accurate over the 30-year period studied. If techniques and skills for arriving at accurate demand forecasts...... forecasting. Highly inaccurate traffic forecasts combined with large standard deviations translate into large financial and economic risks. But such risks are typically ignored or downplayed by planners and decision-makers, to the detriment of social and economic welfare. The paper presents the data...

  14. Polymers in Curved Boxes

    CERN Document Server

    Yaman, K; Solis, F J; Witten, T A

    1996-01-01

    We apply results derived in other contexts for the spectrum of the Laplace operator in curved geometries to the study of an ideal polymer chain confined to a spherical annulus in arbitrary space dimension D and conclude that the free energy compared to its value for an uncurved box of the same thickness and volume, is lower when $D < 3$, stays the same when $D = 3$, and is higher when lowers the effective bending elasticity of the walls, and might induce spontaneous symmetry breaking, i.e. bending. (Actually, the above mentioned results show that {\\em {any}} shell in $D = 3$ induces this effect, except for a spherical shell). We compute the contribution of this effect to the bending rigidities in the Helfrich free energy expression.

  15. ACSYS in a box

    CERN Document Server

    Briegel, C; Hendricks, B; King, C; Lackey, S; Neswold, R; Nicklaus, D; Patrick, J; Petrov, A; Rechenmacher, R; Schumann, C; Smedinghoff, J

    2012-01-01

    The Accelerator Control System at Fermilab has evolved to enable this relatively large control system to be encapsulated into a "box" such as a laptop. The goal was to provide a platform isolated from the "online" control system. This platform can be used internally for making major upgrades and modifications without impacting operations. It also provides a standalone environment for research and development including a turnkey control system for collaborators. Over time, the code base running on Scientific Linux has enabled all the salient features of the Fermilab's control system to be captured in an off-the-shelf laptop. The anticipated additional benefits of packaging the system include improved maintenance, reliability, documentation, and future enhancements.

  16. Evaluation of statistical models for forecast errors from the HBV model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Engeland, Kolbjørn; Renard, Benjamin; Steinsland, Ingelin; Kolberg, Sjur

    2010-04-01

    SummaryThree statistical models for the forecast errors for inflow into the Langvatn reservoir in Northern Norway have been constructed and tested according to the agreement between (i) the forecast distribution and the observations and (ii) median values of the forecast distribution and the observations. For the first model observed and forecasted inflows were transformed by the Box-Cox transformation before a first order auto-regressive model was constructed for the forecast errors. The parameters were conditioned on weather classes. In the second model the Normal Quantile Transformation (NQT) was applied on observed and forecasted inflows before a similar first order auto-regressive model was constructed for the forecast errors. For the third model positive and negative errors were modeled separately. The errors were first NQT-transformed before conditioning the mean error values on climate, forecasted inflow and yesterday's error. To test the three models we applied three criterions: we wanted (a) the forecast distribution to be reliable; (b) the forecast intervals to be narrow; (c) the median values of the forecast distribution to be close to the observed values. Models 1 and 2 gave almost identical results. The median values improved the forecast with Nash-Sutcliffe R eff increasing from 0.77 for the original forecast to 0.87 for the corrected forecasts. Models 1 and 2 over-estimated the forecast intervals but gave the narrowest intervals. Their main drawback was that the distributions are less reliable than Model 3. For Model 3 the median values did not fit well since the auto-correlation was not accounted for. Since Model 3 did not benefit from the potential variance reduction that lies in bias estimation and removal it gave on average wider forecasts intervals than the two other models. At the same time Model 3 on average slightly under-estimated the forecast intervals, probably explained by the use of average measures to evaluate the fit.

  17. Three Nucleons in a Box

    CERN Document Server

    Luu, Thomas

    2008-01-01

    I calculate finite-volume effects for three identical spin-1/2 fermions in a box assuming short-ranged repulsive interactions of `natural size'. This analysis employs standard perturbation theory in powers of 1/L, where L^3 is the volume of the box. I give results for the ground states in the A_1, T_1, and E cubic representations.

  18. An ARIMA model for forecasting Wi-Fi data network traffic values

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cesar Augusto Hernández Suarez

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available This present scientific and technological research was aimed at showing that time series represent an excellent tool for data traffic modelling within Wi-Fi networks. Box-Jenkins methodology (described herein was used for this purpose. Wi-Fi traffic modelling through correlated models, such as time series, allowed a great part of the data’s behaviourl dynamics to be adjusted into a sin- gle equation and future traffic values to be estimated based on this. All this is advantageous when it comes to planning integrated coverage, reserving resources and performing more efficient and timely control at different levels of the Wi-Fi data network func- tional hierarchy. A six order ARIMA traffic model was obtained as a research outcome which predicted traffic with relatively small mean square error values for an 18-day term.

  19. Energy forecast. Final report; Energiudsigten. Slutrapport

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2010-04-15

    A number of instruments, i.e. Internet, media campaigns, boxes displaying electricity prices (SEE1) and spot contract has been tested for households to shift their electricity consumption to times when prices are low. Of the implemented media campaigns, only the daily viewing of Energy forecast on TV had an impact. Consumers gained greater knowledge of electricity prices and electricity consumption loads, but only showed little interest in shifting electricity consumption. However, a measurable effect appeared at night with the group that had both concluded a spot contract and received an SEE1. These factors increase the awareness of the price of electricity and the possibility of shifting electricity consumption. (Energy 10)

  20. Long-range forecasting of intermittent streamflow

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. F. van Ogtrop

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Long-range forecasting of intermittent streamflow in semi-arid Australia poses a number of major challenges. One of the challenges relates to modelling zero, skewed, non-stationary, and non-linear data. To address this, a probabilistic statistical model to forecast streamflow 12 months ahead is applied to five semi-arid catchments in South Western Queensland. The model uses logistic regression through Generalised Additive Models for Location, Scale and Shape (GAMLSS to determine the probability of flow occurring in any of the systems. We then use the same regression framework in combination with a right-skewed distribution, the Box-Cox t distribution, to model the intensity (depth of the non-zero streamflows. Time, seasonality and climate indices, describing the Pacific and Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures, are tested as covariates in the GAMLSS model to make probabilistic 12-month forecasts of the occurrence and intensity of streamflow. The output reveals that in the study region the occurrence and variability of flow is driven by sea surface temperatures and therefore forecasts can be made with some skill.

  1. State-space adjustment of radar rainfall and skill score evaluation of stochastic volume forecasts in urban drainage systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Löwe, Roland; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen; Rasmussen, Michael Robdrup

    2013-01-01

    Merging of radar rainfall data with rain gauge measurements is a common approach to overcome problems in deriving rain intensities from radar measurements. We extend an existing approach for adjustment of C-band radar data using state-space models and use the resulting rainfall intensities as input...... for forecasting outflow from two catchments in the Copenhagen area. Stochastic grey-box models are applied to create the runoff forecasts, providing us with not only a point forecast but also a quantification of the forecast uncertainty. Evaluating the results, we can show that using the adjusted radar data...... improves runoff forecasts compared with using the original radar data and that rain gauge measurements as forecast input are also outperformed. Combining the data merging approach with short-term rainfall forecasting algorithms may result in further improved runoff forecasts that can be used in real time...

  2. Black Box QGP

    CERN Document Server

    Tawfik, A

    2006-01-01

    According to extensive ab initio calculations of lattice QCD, the very large energy density available in heavy-ion collisions at SPS and now at RHIC must be sufficient to generate quark-gluon plasma (QGP), a new state of matter in the form of plasma of free quarks and gluons. The new state of matter discovered at RHIC seems to be perfect fluid rather than free plasma. Its shear viscosity is assumed to be almost zero. In this work, I first considered the theoretical and phenomenological consequences of this discovery and finally asked questions about the nature of phase transition and properties of matter. It is important to answer these questions, otherwise QGP will remain a kind of black box; one sends a signal via new experiments or simulations or models and gets another one from it. I will show that some promising ideas have already been suggested a long time ago. I will also suggest a new phase diagram with separated deconfinement and freeze-out boundaries and a mixed state of thermal quark matter and bub...

  3. The Black Box QGP

    CERN Document Server

    Tawfik, A

    2006-01-01

    According to the extensive ab initio calculations of lattice QCD, the much large energy density available in the heavy-ion collisions at SPS and now at RHIC should be enough to create the quark-gluon plasma (QGP); a new state of matter in form plasma of free quarks and gluons. The new matter discovered at RHIC is a ''nearly perfect'' fluid rather than a plasma. The shear viscosity is too small. We should then ask about the theoretical and phenomenological consequences and why we simply assumed that the deconfined hadronic matter should be an ideal gas. Finally, I will address five questions; about the properties of the new phases at high temperatures and the orders of phase transitions. Before we clarify such questions, the QGP will remain a kind of black box. One sends a signal via new experiments or simulations and gets another one out if it. Then one try to explain what is going on. I will show that some promising ideas already have been suggested long time ago, but it seems that community didn't care. Is ...

  4. Forecaster priorities for improving probabilistic flood forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wetterhall, Fredrik; Pappenberger, Florian; Alfieri, Lorenzo; Cloke, Hannah; Thielen, Jutta

    2014-05-01

    Hydrological ensemble prediction systems (HEPS) have in recent years been increasingly used for the operational forecasting of floods by European hydrometeorological agencies. The most obvious advantage of HEPS is that more of the uncertainty in the modelling system can be assessed. In addition, ensemble prediction systems generally have better skill than deterministic systems both in the terms of the mean forecast performance and the potential forecasting of extreme events. Research efforts have so far mostly been devoted to the improvement of the physical and technical aspects of the model systems, such as increased resolution in time and space and better description of physical processes. Developments like these are certainly needed; however, in this paper we argue that there are other areas of HEPS that need urgent attention. This was also the result from a group exercise and a survey conducted to operational forecasters within the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS) to identify the top priorities of improvement regarding their own system. They turned out to span a range of areas, the most popular being to include verification of an assessment of past forecast performance, a multi-model approach for hydrological modelling, to increase the forecast skill on the medium range (>3 days) and more focus on education and training on the interpretation of forecasts. In light of limited resources, we suggest a simple model to classify the identified priorities in terms of their cost and complexity to decide in which order to tackle them. This model is then used to create an action plan of short-, medium- and long-term research priorities with the ultimate goal of an optimal improvement of EFAS in particular and to spur the development of operational HEPS in general.

  5. House Price Forecasts, Forecaster Herding, and the Recent Crisis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christian Pierdzioch

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available We used the Wall Street Journal survey data for the period 2006–2012 to analyze whether forecasts of house prices and housing starts provide evidence of (anti-herding of forecasters. Forecasts are consistent with herding (anti-herding of forecasters if forecasts are biased towards (away from the consensus forecast. We found that anti-herding is prevalent among forecasters of house prices. We also report that, following the recent crisis, the prevalence of forecaster anti-herding seems to have changed over time.

  6. House Price Forecasts, Forecaster Herding, and the Recent Crisis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stadtmann, Georg; Pierdzioch; Ruelke

    2013-01-01

    We used the Wall Street Journal survey data for the period 2006–2012 to analyze whether forecasts of house prices and housing starts provide evidence of (anti-)herding of forecasters. Forecasts are consistent with herding (anti-herding) of forecasters if forecasts are biased towards (away from) t......) the consensus forecast. We found that anti-herding is prevalent among forecasters of house prices. We also report that, following the recent crisis, the prevalence of forecaster anti-herding seems to have changed over time....

  7. World Area Forecast System (WAFS)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The World Area Forecast System (WAFS) is a worldwide system by which world area forecast centers provide aeronautical meteorological en-route forecasts in uniform...

  8. Computing out of the Box

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2009-01-01

    Baidu unveils "box computing/’ which it hopes will lead to a number of innovations on the InternetBaidu, China’s most popular search engine, held its Technology Innovation Conference 2009 at the China World

  9. Forecasting in Planning

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ike, P.; Voogd, Henk; Voogd, Henk; Linden, Gerard

    2004-01-01

    This chapter begins with a discussion of qualitative forecasting by describing a number of methods that depend on judgements made by stakeholders, experts or other interested parties to arrive at forecasts. Two qualitative approaches are illuminated, the Delphi and scenario methods respectively. Qua

  10. Aviation Forecasting in ICAO

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mcmahon, J.

    1972-01-01

    Opinions or plans of qualified experts in the field are used for forecasting future requirements for air navigational facilities and services of international civil aviation. ICAO periodically collects information from Stators and operates on anticipated future operations, consolidates this information, and forecasts the future level of activity at different airports.

  11. Congressional Election Forecasting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewis-Beck, Michael S.; Rice, Tom W.

    1988-01-01

    Reviews the growing literature on the forecasting of elections, providing an example in the form of 1988 congressional election predictions. Briefly discusses the history of election outcome prediction and outlines two scientific forecasting models which, the authors state, are appropriate for use in the classroom. (GEA)

  12. Forecasting with Colonel Blotto

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Peeters, R.J.A.P.; Wolk, K.L.

    2015-01-01

    In this paper we design and test a competitive forecasting mechanism based on the Colonel Blotto game. In the game, forecasters allocate a fixed number of resources to different 'battlefields'. Each field is realized with a probability that is determined by a stochastic process. Subjects learn about

  13. Confidence in Coastal Forecasts

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Baart, F.

    2013-01-01

    This thesis answers the question "How can we show and improve our confidence in coastal forecasts?", by providing four examples of common coastal forecasts. The first example shows how to improve the estimate of the one in ten thousand year storm-surge level. The three dimensional reconstruction,

  14. Housing price forecastability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bork, Lasse; Møller, Stig Vinther

    2012-01-01

    We examine US housing price forecastability using a common factor approach based on a large panel of 122 economic time series. We …nd that a simple three-factor model generates an explanatory power of about 50% in one-quarter ahead in-sample forecasting regressions. The predictive power of the mo...

  15. The strategy of professional forecasting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ottaviani, Marco; Sørensen, Peter Norman

    2006-01-01

    We develop and compare two theories of professional forecasters’ strategic behavior. The first theory, reputational cheap talk, posits that forecasters endeavor to convince the market that they are well informed. The market evaluates their forecasting talent on the basis of the forecasts...... and the realized state. If the market expects forecasters to report their posterior expectations honestly, then forecasts are shaded toward the prior mean. With correct market expectations, equilibrium forecasts are imprecise but not shaded. The second theory posits that forecasters compete in a forecasting...

  16. Plate forming and break down pizza box

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pantisano, Frank; Devine, Scott M.

    1992-01-01

    A standard corrugated paper pizza box is provided with slit cuts cut through the top panel of the pizza box in a shape to form four circular serving plates with a beveled raised edge and cross slit cuts through the bottom panel of the pizza box separating the box into four essentially equal portions for easy disposal.

  17. 30 CFR 57.12006 - Distribution boxes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 30 Mineral Resources 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Distribution boxes. 57.12006 Section 57.12006... and Underground § 57.12006 Distribution boxes. Distribution boxes shall be provided with a... deenergized, and the distribution box shall be labeled to show which circuit each device controls....

  18. Box graphs and resolutions I

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andreas P. Braun

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Box graphs succinctly and comprehensively characterize singular fibers of elliptic fibrations in codimension two and three, as well as flop transitions connecting these, in terms of representation theoretic data. We develop a framework that provides a systematic map between a box graph and a crepant algebraic resolution of the singular elliptic fibration, thus allowing an explicit construction of the fibers from a singular Weierstrass or Tate model. The key tool is what we call a fiber face diagram, which shows the relevant information of a (partial toric triangulation and allows the inclusion of more general algebraic blowups. We shown that each such diagram defines a sequence of weighted algebraic blowups, thus providing a realization of the fiber defined by the box graph in terms of an explicit resolution. We show this correspondence explicitly for the case of SU(5 by providing a map between box graphs and fiber faces, and thereby a sequence of algebraic resolutions of the Tate model, which realizes each of the box graphs.

  19. Box graphs and resolutions I

    Science.gov (United States)

    Braun, Andreas P.; Schäfer-Nameki, Sakura

    2016-04-01

    Box graphs succinctly and comprehensively characterize singular fibers of elliptic fibrations in codimension two and three, as well as flop transitions connecting these, in terms of representation theoretic data. We develop a framework that provides a systematic map between a box graph and a crepant algebraic resolution of the singular elliptic fibration, thus allowing an explicit construction of the fibers from a singular Weierstrass or Tate model. The key tool is what we call a fiber face diagram, which shows the relevant information of a (partial) toric triangulation and allows the inclusion of more general algebraic blowups. We shown that each such diagram defines a sequence of weighted algebraic blowups, thus providing a realization of the fiber defined by the box graph in terms of an explicit resolution. We show this correspondence explicitly for the case of SU (5) by providing a map between box graphs and fiber faces, and thereby a sequence of algebraic resolutions of the Tate model, which realizes each of the box graphs.

  20. First-aid boxes - Reminder

    CERN Multimedia

    GS Department

    2010-01-01

    With a view to ensuring optimum use of the first-aid boxes on the CERN site, we should like to remind you of various changes introduced in March 2009: The TSO of the buildings concerned is responsible for the first-aid boxes, including checking their contents.   First-aid boxes may be restocked ONLY at the CERN stores (SCEM No. 54.99.80). This is no longer possible at the Infirmary. The associated cost is charged to the Departments.   First-aid boxes should be used only for mild injuries. All other cases should be referred to the Medical Service Infirmary (Bldg. 57 – ground-floor, tel. 73802) between 8.00 a.m. and 5.30 p.m. or to the Fire and Rescue Service (tel. 74444). N.B.: This information does not apply to the red emergency first-aid boxes in the underground areas or to the emergency kits for use in the event of being splashed with hydrofluoric acid.

  1. Spatial electric load forecasting

    CERN Document Server

    Willis, H Lee

    2002-01-01

    Spatial Electric Load Forecasting Consumer Demand for Power and ReliabilityCoincidence and Load BehaviorLoad Curve and End-Use ModelingWeather and Electric LoadWeather Design Criteria and Forecast NormalizationSpatial Load Growth BehaviorSpatial Forecast Accuracy and Error MeasuresTrending MethodsSimulation Method: Basic ConceptsA Detailed Look at the Simulation MethodBasics of Computerized SimulationAnalytical Building Blocks for Spatial SimulationAdvanced Elements of Computerized SimulationHybrid Trending-Simulation MethodsAdvanced

  2. Forecasting for dynamic line rating

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Michiorri, Andrea; Nguyen, Huu-Minh; Alessandrini, Stefano

    2015-01-01

    . In order to facilitate the integration of DLR into power system operations, research has been launched into DLR forecasting, following a similar avenue to IRS production forecasting, i.e. based on a mix of statistical methods and meteorological forecasts. The development of reliable DLR forecasts...

  3. Asymptotic Symmetries from finite boxes

    CERN Document Server

    Andrade, Tomas

    2015-01-01

    It is natural to regulate an infinite-sized system by imposing a boundary condition at finite distance, placing the system in a "box." This breaks symmetries, though the breaking is small when the box is large. One should thus be able to obtain the asymptotic symmetries of the infinite system by studying regulated systems. We provide concrete examples in the context of Einstein-Hilbert gravity (with negative or zero cosmological constant) by showing in 4 or more dimensions how the Anti-de Sitter and Poincar\\'e asymptotic symmetries can be extracted from gravity in a spherical box with Dirichlet boundary conditions. In 2+1 dimensions we obtain the full double-Virasoro algebra of asymptotic symmetries for AdS$_3$ and, correspondingly, the full Bondi-Metzner-Sachs (BMS) algebra for asymptotically flat space. In higher dimensions, a related approach may continue to be useful for constructing a good asymptotically flat phase space with BMS asymptotic symmetries.

  4. Identifying competencies of boxing coaches

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ioannis Tasiopoulos

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this study was to find out the management skills required by boxing coaches to administrate their clubs. For the purposes of this study a scale was constructed which was answered by 98 boxing coaches. Explanatory factor analysis revealed seven factors: Communication-public relations (5 items, event management (4 items, management techniques (4 items, new technologies (4 items, prevention-safety (2 items, sport (5 items and sports facilities (2 items. The Cronbach of the scale was 0.85. The five competencies that rated by the coaches were: Supervisors of the area of training, maintaining excellent communication with athletes, using new technologies (e-mail, internet, handling disciplinary matters, accidents, complaints and reports on some sporting games and promoted harmony among athletes. We concluded that boxing coaches understand that the competencies required for meeting their obligations, were related to sports, prevention, safety and communications-public relations.

  5. Intelligent energy demand forecasting

    CERN Document Server

    Hong, Wei-Chiang

    2013-01-01

    This book offers approaches and methods to calculate optimal electric energy allocation, using evolutionary algorithms and intelligent analytical tools to improve the accuracy of demand forecasting. Focuses on improving the drawbacks of existing algorithms.

  6. NYHOPS Forecast Model Results

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — 3D Marine Nowcast/Forecast System for the New York Bight NYHOPS subdomain. Currents, waves, surface meteorology, and water conditions.

  7. Forecast Icing Product

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Forecast Icing Product (FIP) is an automatically-generated index suitable for depicting areas of potentially hazardous airframe icing. The FIP algorithm uses...

  8. Econometrics 101: forecasting demystified

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Crow, R.T.

    1980-05-01

    Forecasting by econometric modeling is described in a commonsense way which omits much of the technical jargon. A trend of continuous growth is no longer an adequate forecasting tool. Today's forecasters must consider rapid changes in price, policies, regulations, capital availability, and the cost of being wrong. A forecasting model is designed by identifying future influences on electricity purchases and quantifying their relationships to each other. A record is produced which can be evaluated and used to make corrections in the models. Residential consumption is used to illustrate how this works and to demonstrate how power consumption is also related to the purchase and use of equipment. While models can quantify behavioral relationships, they cannot account for the impacts of non-price factors because of limited data. (DCK)

  9. BOX: One Minute Volume 3

    OpenAIRE

    Butler, Rose

    2009-01-01

    BOX is a digital short originally developed in 2004 documented on a 1920’s box camera. This early moving image work formed the basis of a practice which interrogates our experience of moving image through the remediation of analogue technology with new media. In 2009 it was included in One Minute Volume 3; a programme of artists moving image curated by Kerry Baldry including work by: Tony Hill, Tina Keane, Katherine Meynell, Kayla Parker and Stuart Moore, Dave Griffiths, Marty St Jam...

  10. Black holes in a box

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Witek, Helvi; Cardoso, Vitor; Nerozzi, Andrea [Centro Multidisciplinar de Astrofisica - CENTRA, Department de Fisica, Instituto Superior Tecnico, Av. Rovisco Pais 1, 1049-001 Lisboa (Portugal); Gualtieri, Leonardo [Dipartimento di Fisica, Universita di Roma ' Sapienza' and Sezione INFN Roma1, P.A. Moro 5, 00185, Roma (Italy); Herdeiro, Carlos; Zilhao, Miguel [Centro de Fisica do Porto e Departamento de Fisica da Faculdade de Ciencias da Universidade do Porto, Rua do Campo Alegre 687, 4169-007 Porto (Portugal); Sperhake, Ulrich, E-mail: helvi.witek@ist.utl.p, E-mail: vitor.cardoso@ist.utl.p, E-mail: Leonardo.Gualtieri@roma1.infn.i, E-mail: crherdei@fc.up.p, E-mail: andrea.nerozzi@ist.utl.p, E-mail: sperhake@tapir.caltech.ed, E-mail: mzilhao@fc.up.p [California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA 91109 (United States)

    2010-05-01

    The evolution of BHs in 'confining boxes' is interesting for a number of reasons, particularly because it mimics some aspects of anti-de Sitter spacetimes. These admit no Cauchy surface and are a simple example of a non-globally hyperbolic spacetime. We are here interested in the potential role that boundary conditions play in the evolution of a BH system. For that, we imprison a binary BH in a box, at which boundary we set mirror-like boundary conditions.

  11. Precipitation and temperature ensemble forecasts from single-value forecasts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Schaake

    2007-04-01

    Full Text Available A procedure is presented to construct ensemble forecasts from single-value forecasts of precipitation and temperature. This involves dividing the spatial forecast domain and total forecast period into a number of parts that are treated as separate forecast events. The spatial domain is divided into hydrologic sub-basins. The total forecast period is divided into time periods, one for each model time step. For each event archived values of forecasts and corresponding observations are used to model the joint distribution of forecasts and observations. The conditional distribution of observations for a given single-value forecast is used to represent the corresponding probability distribution of events that may occur for that forecast. This conditional forecast distribution subsequently is used to create ensemble members that vary in space and time using the "Schaake Shuffle" (Clark et al, 2004. The resulting ensemble members have the same space-time patterns as historical observations so that space-time joint relationships between events that have a significant effect on hydrological response tend to be preserved.

    Forecast uncertainty is space and time-scale dependent. For a given lead time to the beginning of the valid period of an event, forecast uncertainty depends on the length of the forecast valid time period and the spatial area to which the forecast applies. Although the "Schaake Shuffle" procedure, when applied to construct ensemble members from a time-series of single value forecasts, may preserve some of this scale dependency, it may not be sufficient without additional constraint. To account more fully for the time-dependent structure of forecast uncertainty, events for additional "aggregate" forecast periods are defined as accumulations of different "base" forecast periods.

    The generated ensemble members can be ingested by an Ensemble Streamflow Prediction system to produce ensemble forecasts of streamflow and other

  12. An overview of health forecasting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soyiri, Ireneous N; Reidpath, Daniel D

    2013-01-01

    Health forecasting is a novel area of forecasting, and a valuable tool for predicting future health events or situations such as demands for health services and healthcare needs. It facilitates preventive medicine and health care intervention strategies, by pre-informing health service providers to take appropriate mitigating actions to minimize risks and manage demand. Health forecasting requires reliable data, information and appropriate analytical tools for the prediction of specific health conditions or situations. There is no single approach to health forecasting, and so various methods have often been adopted to forecast aggregate or specific health conditions. Meanwhile, there are no defined health forecasting horizons (time frames) to match the choices of health forecasting methods/approaches that are often applied. The key principles of health forecasting have not also been adequately described to guide the process. This paper provides a brief introduction and theoretical analysis of health forecasting. It describes the key issues that are important for health forecasting, including: definitions, principles of health forecasting, and the properties of health data, which influence the choices of health forecasting methods. Other matters related to the value of health forecasting, and the general challenges associated with developing and using health forecasting services are discussed. This overview is a stimulus for further discussions on standardizing health forecasting approaches and methods that will facilitate health care and health services delivery.

  13. Forecasting the Brazilian real and the Mexican peso: Asymmetric loss, forecast rationality, and forecaster herding

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stadtmann, Georg; Fritsche, Ulrich; Pierdzioch, Christian;

    2015-01-01

    Using forecasts of exchange rates of the Brazilian real and the Mexican peso against the US dollar, we analyze the symmetry of the loss function of exchange-rate forecasters and the rationality of their forecasts. Symmetry of the loss function can be rejected for some forecasters but not all. Even...... when allowing for asymmetric loss functions, the predictions of some forecasters do not fit the traditional definition of rational forecasts. We interpret our results in terms of recent research on forecaster (anti-)herding....

  14. A Comparative Study of White Box, Black Box and Grey Box Testing Techniques

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohd. Ehmer Khan

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Software testing is the process to uncover requirement, design and coding errors in the program. It is used to identify the correctness, completeness, security and quality of software products against a specification. Software testing is the process used to measure the quality of developed computer software. It exhibits all mistakes, errors and flaws in the developed software. There are many approaches to software testing, but effective testing of complex product is essentially a process of investigation, not merely a matter of creating and following route procedure. It is not possible to find out all the errors in the program. This fundamental problem in testing thus throws an open question, as to what would be the strategy we should adopt for testing. In our paper, we have described and compared the three most prevalent and commonly used software testing techniques for detecting errors, they are: white box testing, black box testing and grey box testing.

  15. Advances in Business and Management Forecasting

    CERN Document Server

    Lawrence, Kenneth D

    2011-01-01

    The topics within Advances in Business and Management Forecasting will normally include sales and marketing, forecasting, new product forecasting, judgmentally-based forecasting, the application of surveys to forecasting, forecasting for strategic business decisions, improvements in forecasting accuracy, and sales response models.

  16. The Bird Box Survey Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Willis, Patrick

    2014-01-01

    When high school students are asked what's the best part of science class, many will say it's the field trips. Students enjoy engaging in authentic, community-based science outside the classroom. To capitalize on this, Patrick Willis created the Bird Box Survey Project for his introductory field biology class. The project takes students…

  17. On the Dirichlet's Box Principle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poon, Kin-Keung; Shiu, Wai-Chee

    2008-01-01

    In this note, we will focus on several applications on the Dirichlet's box principle in Discrete Mathematics lesson and number theory lesson. In addition, the main result is an innovative game on a triangular board developed by the authors. The game has been used in teaching and learning mathematics in Discrete Mathematics and some high schools in…

  18. Back office to box office

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Haigh, Matthew

    sees a mounting unsecured debt where its members see practical value. Between the two, a steward who may not profit from its office delegates it to back-office agents whose fiduciary management is engendered by box office-sized bonuses. Standard theorisation has foundered. The architecture...

  19. Microclimate boxes for panel paintings

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wadum, Jørgen

    1998-01-01

    The use of microclimate boxes to protect vulnerable panel paintings is, therefore, not a new phenomenon of the past two or three decades. Rather, it has been a concern for conservators and curators to protect these objects of art at home and in transit since the end of the nineteenth century. The...

  20. A Box Full of Kisses

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    崔增印

    2008-01-01

    The story goes that some time ago,a man pun- ished his 3-year-old daughter for wasting a roll of gold wrapping paper.Money was tight and he became infuriated when the child tried to decorate a box to put under the Christmas tree.Nevertheless,the little girl brought the gift to

  1. Reference: AT1BOX [PLACE

    Lifescience Database Archive (English)

    Full Text Available AT1BOX Ueda T, Pichersky E, Malik VS, Cashmore AR The level of expression of the to...mato rbcs-3A gene is modulated by a far-upstream promoter element in a developmentary regulated manner. Plant Cell 1:217-227 (1989) PubMed: 2535544; GenBank: S44160; ...

  2. EPA-Expo-Box Terminology

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA-Expo-Box is a toolbox for exposure assessors. Its purpose is to provide a compendium of exposure assessment and risk characterization tools that will present comprehensive step-by-step guidance and links to relevant exposure assessment data bases,

  3. Probability Forecast of Regional Landslide Based on Numerical Weather Forecast

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    GAO Kechang; WEI Fangqiang; CUI Peng; HU Kaiheng; XU Jing; ZHANG Guoping; BI Baogui

    2006-01-01

    The regional forecast of landslide is one of the key points of hazard mitigation. It is also a hot and difficult point in research field. To solve this problem has become urgent task along with Chinese economy fast development. This paper analyzes the principle of regional landslide forecast and the factors for forecasting. The method of a combination of Information Value Model and Extension Model has been put forward to be as the forecast model. Using new result of Numerical Weather Forecast Research and that combination model, we discuss the implementation feasibility of regional landslide forecast. Finally, with the help of Geographic Information System, an operation system for southwest of China landslide forecast has been developed. It can carry out regional landslide forecast daily and has been pilot run in NMC. Since this is the first time linking theoretical research with meteorological service, further works are needed to enhance it.

  4. Main: BOX2PVCHS15 [PLACE

    Lifescience Database Archive (English)

    Full Text Available BOX2PVCHS15 S000209 11-May-2006 (last modified) kehi Box 2 of bean (P.v.) chs15 pro...moter; SBF-1 binding site; For a compilation of related GT elements and factors, see Villain et al. (1996); Box 2; chs; chs1

  5. Main: BOX3PVCHS15 [PLACE

    Lifescience Database Archive (English)

    Full Text Available BOX3PVCHS15 S000210 11-May-2006 (last modified) kehi Box 3 of bean (P.v.) chs15 pro...moter; SBF-1 binding site; For a compilation of related GT elements and factors, see Villain et al. (1996); Box 3; chs; chs1

  6. The Heuristic Interpretation of Box Plots

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lem, Stephanie; Onghena, Patrick; Verschaffel, Lieven; Van Dooren, Wim

    2013-01-01

    Box plots are frequently used, but are often misinterpreted by students. Especially the area of the box in box plots is often misinterpreted as representing number or proportion of observations, while it actually represents their density. In a first study, reaction time evidence was used to test whether heuristic reasoning underlies this…

  7. Main: BOX2PSGS2 [PLACE

    Lifescience Database Archive (English)

    Full Text Available BOX2PSGS2 S000204 17-May-1998 (last modified) kehi Box 2 in glutamine synthetase (GS...2) gene in pea (P.s.); Repeated in tandem with a partial palindrome located between the repeats; Located at ca. -300 of pea GS...2; Box 2; glutamine synthetase; GS2; pea (Pisum sativum); TCTAAGCAAAG ...

  8. 30 CFR 56.12006 - Distribution boxes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 30 Mineral Resources 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Distribution boxes. 56.12006 Section 56.12006... Distribution boxes. Distribution boxes shall be provided with a disconnecting device for each branch circuit... visual observation when such a device is open and that the circuit is deenergized, the distribution...

  9. Illumination box and camera system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haas, Jeffrey S.; Kelly, Fredrick R.; Bushman, John F.; Wiefel, Michael H.; Jensen, Wayne A.; Klunder, Gregory L.

    2002-01-01

    A hand portable, field-deployable thin-layer chromatography (TLC) unit and a hand portable, battery-operated unit for development, illumination, and data acquisition of the TLC plates contain many miniaturized features that permit a large number of samples to be processed efficiently. The TLC unit includes a solvent tank, a holder for TLC plates, and a variety of tool chambers for storing TLC plates, solvent, and pipettes. After processing in the TLC unit, a TLC plate is positioned in a collapsible illumination box, where the box and a CCD camera are optically aligned for optimal pixel resolution of the CCD images of the TLC plate. The TLC system includes an improved development chamber for chemical development of TLC plates that prevents solvent overflow.

  10. Are demand forecasting techniques applicable to libraries?

    OpenAIRE

    1984-01-01

    Examines the nature and limitations of demand forecasting, discuses plausible methods of forecasting demand for information, suggests some useful hints for demand forecasting and concludes by emphasizing unified approach to demand forecasting.

  11. Broken links and black boxes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sindbæk, Søren Michael

    2013-01-01

    Long-distance communication has emerged as a particular focus for archaeological exploration using network theory, analysis, and modelling. Initial attempts to adapt methods from social network analysis to archaeological data have, however, struggled to produce decisive results. This paper argues...... observable distributions and patterns of association in the archaeological record. In formal terms this is not a problem of network analysis, but network synthesis: the classic problem of cracking codes or reconstructing black-box circuits....

  12. Global Energy Forecasting Competition 2012

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hong, Tao; Pinson, Pierre; Fan, Shu

    2014-01-01

    The Global Energy Forecasting Competition (GEFCom2012) attracted hundreds of participants worldwide, who contributed many novel ideas to the energy forecasting field. This paper introduces both tracks of GEFCom2012, hierarchical load forecasting and wind power forecasting, with details on the asp......The Global Energy Forecasting Competition (GEFCom2012) attracted hundreds of participants worldwide, who contributed many novel ideas to the energy forecasting field. This paper introduces both tracks of GEFCom2012, hierarchical load forecasting and wind power forecasting, with details...... on the aspects of the problem, the data, and a summary of the methods used by selected top entries. We also discuss the lessons learned from this competition from the organizers’ perspective. The complete data set, including the solution data, is published along with this paper, in an effort to establish...

  13. CDM Convective Forecast Planning guidance

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The CDM Convective Forecast Planning (CCFP) guidance product provides a foreast of en-route aviation convective hazards. The forecasts are updated every 2 hours and...

  14. Evaluation Of Statistical Models For Forecast Errors From The HBV-Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Engeland, K.; Kolberg, S.; Renard, B.; Stensland, I.

    2009-04-01

    Three statistical models for the forecast errors for inflow to the Langvatn reservoir in Northern Norway have been constructed and tested according to how well the distribution and median values of the forecasts errors fit to the observations. For the first model observed and forecasted inflows were transformed by the Box-Cox transformation before a first order autoregressive model was constructed for the forecast errors. The parameters were conditioned on climatic conditions. In the second model the Normal Quantile Transformation (NQT) was applied on observed and forecasted inflows before a similar first order autoregressive model was constructed for the forecast errors. For the last model positive and negative errors were modeled separately. The errors were first NQT-transformed before a model where the mean values were conditioned on climate, forecasted inflow and yesterday's error. To test the three models we applied three criterions: We wanted a) the median values to be close to the observed values; b) the forecast intervals to be narrow; c) the distribution to be correct. The results showed that it is difficult to obtain a correct model for the forecast errors, and that the main challenge is to account for the auto-correlation in the errors. Model 1 and 2 gave similar results, and the main drawback is that the distributions are not correct. The 95% forecast intervals were well identified, but smaller forecast intervals were over-estimated, and larger intervals were under-estimated. Model 3 gave a distribution that fits better, but the median values do not fit well since the auto-correlation is not properly accounted for. If the 95% forecast interval is of interest, Model 2 is recommended. If the whole distribution is of interest, Model 3 is recommended.

  15. Projected Applications of a "Weather in a Box" Computing System at the NASA Short-Term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jedlovec, Gary J.; Molthan, Andrew; Zavodsky, Bradley T.; Case, Jonathan L.; LaFontaine, Frank J.; Srikishen, Jayanthi

    2010-01-01

    The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition Center (SPoRT)'s new "Weather in a Box" resources will provide weather research and forecast modeling capabilities for real-time application. Model output will provide additional forecast guidance and research into the impacts of new NASA satellite data sets and software capabilities. By combining several research tools and satellite products, SPoRT can generate model guidance that is strongly influenced by unique NASA contributions.

  16. La compañía del asiento y la guerra de la oreja de Jenkins: sus causas económicas y algunos aspectos contables relacionados

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rafael Donoso Anes

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available Por el tratado de Utrecht de 1713 el Asiento de esclavos pasaría a manos de Inglaterra, cuya soberana concedería su desarrollo práctico a la Compañía del Mar del Sur, la cual, con muchos altibajos, lo conservaría hasta la denominada Guerra de la Oreja de Jenkins o guerra del Asiento que estalló en 1739, enfrentando a la corona española y británica durante un período de casi diez años, hasta la paz de Aquisgrán de 1748 y que desembocaría, en 1750, en un tratado particular con Inglaterra que llevaría a la culminación definitiva del Asiento. En relación con este tema hay un aspecto, apenas reconocido hasta ahora en otros trabajos de investigación históricos y que se refiere al importante papel que desempeñó en el desenvolvimiento del Asiento la contabilidad, o mejor las cuentas que, de forma reiterada, se solicitaban a la Compañía del Mar de Sur por parte de la Corona española, en cuyo negocio participaba con una cuarta parte y que, por el articulado del Asiento, estaba la Compañía obligada a presentar periódicamente. Este conflicto de carácter contable se unió a otros muchos que, finalmente, desembocaron, como tendremos ocasión de analizar, en la denominada “Guerra de la Oreja de Jenkins” en 1739, conflicto que ha sido analizado por algunos historiadores, entre los que destacamos a Béthencourt Massieu (1989 y 1998 por ser de los pocos que reconocen que, a las causas políticas y diplomáticas que promovieron los conflictos entre las dos naciones, hay que añadir “el de las frecuentes peticiones de cuentas por Felipe V y el pago de sus beneficios conforme a los plazos señalados por los tratados” (1998, p. 184.En este trabajo de investigación analizamos algunas de las causas que motivaron el conflicto entre ambas naciones, poniendo un énfasis especial en los aspectos económicos y contables derivados de las relaciones comerciales e intereses económicos que la monarquía española tenía en el Asiento de

  17. Main: BOX1PSGS2 [PLACE

    Lifescience Database Archive (English)

    Full Text Available BOX1PSGS2 S000222 19-August-2004 (last modified) kehi Box 1 element in pea (P.s.) glutamine synthetase (GS...2) gene; An element in a 33-bp AT-rich sequence (box 1) of the 5' end of a GS2 promot...er; Located at -837 to -827 of pea GS2; Multimer of box 1 element was used to isolate a cDNA encoding an AT-...rich DNA binding protein (ATBP-1) (Tjaden & Coruzzi, 1994); Box 1; glutamine synthetase; GS2; ATBp; ATBP-1; pea (Pisum sativum) ATAGAAATCAA ...

  18. Forecasters' Objectives and Strategies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Marinovic, Iván; Ottaviani, Marco; Sørensen, Peter Norman

    2013-01-01

    This chapter develops a unified modeling framework for analyzing the strategic behavior of forecasters. The theoretical model encompasses reputational objectives, competition for the best accuracy, and bias. Also drawing from the extensive lit- erature on analysts, we review the empirical evidence...

  19. On forecasting SETAR processes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Gooijer, J.G.; de Bruin, P.T.

    1998-01-01

    Suppose a time series {Yt} is generated by a first-order stationary self-exciting threshold autoregressive (SETAR) model with Gaussian innovations. The minimum mean squared error h-step ahead forecast ~(h)=E[Yt+h]g; s<~t] for h > 2 involves a sequence of complicated numerical integrations and closed

  20. FORECASTING CROATIAN STOCK MARKET INDEX: CROBEX

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zoran Ivanovic

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Forecasting stock returns is considered one of the hardest tasks for every potential investor. This paper attempts to predict the movement of Croatian stock market index Crobex on Zagreb Stock Exchange. Main aim of this paper was to empirically examine the best univariate Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model for forecasting. This research examined ARIMA (p;d;q model on weekly closed prices of Crobex from 01/01/2011 to 01/01/2013. First it was necessary to meet the stationary condition. While checking the conditions of stationarity, data series were observed by ACF, PACF plots and by Ljung– Box Q statistic and Augmented Dickey–Fuller test statistic. After differencing, statistic showed that the data is stationary and the next step was to find the best ARIMA model. The most important criteria that were used are: R-squared, Adjusted R-squared, Akaike information criterion, Schwarz criterion and Hannan–Quinn information criterion. After checking the exceptionally large number of models it was found the model that suits best, according to the criteria.

  1. Load forecasting for supermarket refrigeration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bacher, Peder; Madsen, Henrik; Aalborg Nielsen, Henrik

    the hourly load for refrigeration for the following 42 hours is forecasted. The forecast models are adaptive linear time-series models which are fitted with a computationally efficient recursive least squares scheme. The dynamic relations between the inputs and the load is modeled by simple transfer......This report presents a study of models for forecasting the load for supermarket refrigeration. The data used for building the forecasting models consists of load measurements, local climate measurements and weather forecasts. The load measurements are from a supermarket located in a village...... in Denmark. The load for refrigeration is the sum of all cabinets in the supermarket, both low and medium temperature cabinets, and spans a period of one year. As input to the forecasting models the ambient temperature observed near the supermarket together with weather forecasts are used. Every hour...

  2. The Status of Budget Forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel W. Williams

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available This article examines the breadth of the current forecast literature as it relates to public budget making. It serves to provide summary information to decision-makers who otherwise do not have the resources to learn more than a small amount focused on much more narrowly defined areas of forecasting (such as the politics of forecast bias. Next, it serves those who perform forecasting related to budgeting by reviewing the current methods and practices commonly used in this domain. It also provides a ground level for future public budget forecasting research. Finally, this article identifies several areas in which the public forecasting literature needs additional development. Several of these areas, such as the effectiveness of nonregression-based forecasting techniques, are quite important to the majority of governments in the United States and other subnational jurisdictions, where budget offices are limited and resource investments in technology are scarce.

  3. Convective Weather Forecast Quality Metrics for Air Traffic Management Decision-Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chatterji, Gano B.; Gyarfas, Brett; Chan, William N.; Meyn, Larry A.

    2006-01-01

    Since numerical weather prediction models are unable to accurately forecast the severity and the location of the storm cells several hours into the future when compared with observation data, there has been a growing interest in probabilistic description of convective weather. The classical approach for generating uncertainty bounds consists of integrating the state equations and covariance propagation equations forward in time. This step is readily recognized as the process update step of the Kalman Filter algorithm. The second well known method, known as the Monte Carlo method, consists of generating output samples by driving the forecast algorithm with input samples selected from distributions. The statistical properties of the distributions of the output samples are then used for defining the uncertainty bounds of the output variables. This method is computationally expensive for a complex model compared to the covariance propagation method. The main advantage of the Monte Carlo method is that a complex non-linear model can be easily handled. Recently, a few different methods for probabilistic forecasting have appeared in the literature. A method for computing probability of convection in a region using forecast data is described in Ref. 5. Probability at a grid location is computed as the fraction of grid points, within a box of specified dimensions around the grid location, with forecast convection precipitation exceeding a specified threshold. The main limitation of this method is that the results are dependent on the chosen dimensions of the box. The examples presented Ref. 5 show that this process is equivalent to low-pass filtering of the forecast data with a finite support spatial filter. References 6 and 7 describe the technique for computing percentage coverage within a 92 x 92 square-kilometer box and assigning the value to the center 4 x 4 square-kilometer box. This technique is same as that described in Ref. 5. Characterizing the forecast, following

  4. Forecasting Turbine Icing Events

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Davis, Neil; Hahmann, Andrea N.; Clausen, Niels-Erik

    In this study, we present a method for forecasting icing events. The method is validated at two European wind farms in with known icing events. The icing model used was developed using current ice accretion methods, and newly developed ablation algorithms. The model is driven by inputs from the WRF...... mesoscale model, allowing for both climatological estimates of icing and short term icing forecasts. The current model was able to detect periods of icing reasonably well at the warmer site. However at the cold climate site, the model was not able to remove ice quickly enough leading to large ice...... accumulations, which have not been seen in observations. In addition to the model evaluation we were able to investigate the potential occurrence of ice induced power loss at two wind parks in Europe using observed data. We found that the potential loss during an icing event is large even when the turbine...

  5. Foresight and Forecasts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kilbourn, Kyle; Bay, Marie Brøndum

    In predicting areas of growth, public innovation projects may rely on optimistic visions of technology still in development as a way of ensuring novelty for funding. This paper explores what happens when forecasts of robotic technology meets the practice of sterile supply in a preliminary stage......, the most sustainable innovation stems from the dialogical interaction between practitioner foresight and societal forecasting, requiring continued development of participatory design as it moves into new contexts....... of an ongoing project. We examine the nature of participation in design on three levels: in the sterilization ward, this particular project and society in general. From our case, we suggest that while innovation projects proceeding from a certain technological perspective can succeed at building excitement...

  6. Forecasting carbon dioxide emissions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Xiaobing; Du, Ding

    2015-09-01

    This study extends the literature on forecasting carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by applying the reduced-form econometrics approach of Schmalensee et al. (1998) to a more recent sample period, the post-1997 period. Using the post-1997 period is motivated by the observation that the strengthening pace of global climate policy may have been accelerated since 1997. Based on our parameter estimates, we project 25% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2050 according to an economic and population growth scenario that is more consistent with recent global trends. Our forecasts are conservative due to that we do not have sufficient data to fully take into account recent developments in the global economy.

  7. The Lithium Vapor Box Divertor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldston, Robert; Hakim, Ammar; Hammett, Gregory; Jaworski, Michael; Myers, Rachel; Schwartz, Jacob

    2015-11-01

    Projections of scrape-off layer width to a demonstration power plant suggest an immense parallel heat flux, of order 12 GW/m2, which will necessitate nearly fully detached operation. Building on earlier work by Nagayama et al. and by Ono et al., we propose to use a series of differentially pumped boxes filled with lithium vapor to isolate the buffering vapor from the main plasma chamber, allowing stable detachment. This powerful differential pumping is only available for condensable vapors, not conventional gases. We demonstrate the properties of such a system through conservation laws for vapor mass and enthalpy, and then include plasma entrainment and ultimately an estimate of radiated power. We find that full detachment should be achievable with little leakage of lithium to the main plasma chamber. We also present progress towards solving the Navier-Stokes equation numerically for the chain of vapor boxes, including self-consistent wall boundary conditions and fully-developed shocks, as well as concepts for an initial experimental demonstration-of-concept. This work supported by DOE Contract No. DE-AC02-09CH11466.

  8. F-box proteins in flowering plants

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2002-01-01

    In eukaryotes, the ubiquitin-mediated protein degradation pathway has been shown to control several key biological processes such as cell division, development, metabolism and immune response. F-box proteins, as a part of SCF (Skp1-Cullin (or Cdc53)-F-box) complex, functioned by interacting with substrate proteins, leading to their subsequent degradation by the 26S proteasome. To date, several F-box proteins identified in Arabidopsis and Antirrhinum have been shown to play important roles in auxin signal transduction, floral organ formation, flowering and leaf senescence. Arabidopsis genome sequence analysis revealed that it encodes over 1000 predicted F-box proteins accounting for about 5% of total predicted proteins. These results indicate that the ubiquitin-mediated protein degradation involving the F-box proteins is an important mechanism controlling plant gene expression. Here, we review the known F-box proteins and their functionsin flowering plants.

  9. Understanding Recommender Dynamics driving Box Office Revenues

    CERN Document Server

    Yeung, C H; Jin, C -H

    2010-01-01

    We introduce a simple model to investigate the underlying dynamics driving movie box office. Without an explicit reliance on time, the box office of movies evolves naturally by movie-movie competition through reviews listed on a centralized recommender system. A simple mean-field approximation is employed which assumes an average interaction between the competing movies, and describes the interesting box office dynamics. Box office hits are found for movies with quality beyond a critical value, leading to booms in gross box office. Such critical value is dependent on the reviewing behaviors, intention of movie goers for new movies, and the quality of the peer competing movies. Finally we compare our analytical results with simulations and real system and obtain qualitative agreements, suggesting the present model in describing the fundamental dynamics of box office.

  10. Trend Monitoring and Forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-03-11

    and parties. 4) Business : trending topics that are related to economy, business , career and workspace field 5) World issue: trending topics that are...spread on the web: analyze the web trends ." In Proceedings of the 8th International Conference on Ubiquitous Information Management and Communication...Final 3. DATES COVERED (From - To) 28-03-2013 – 27-03-2015 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Trend Monitoring and Forecasting 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER

  11. Handbook of Forecasting Techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    1975-12-01

    Functions (illustrated as plots) show the form of the relationship between the information used to make judgments ind the judgments. 177L __ - eI Level...veniently subdivided into two types. In one type, the expert. consu~lt ed_ -’ ei rlttuited because of their extensive special know’.- edge about a topic...Because values forecasts are inherently vulnerable to criticisms from any quarter, and are also favorite targets of sarcasm , they can be useful in

  12. Forecasting in marketing

    OpenAIRE

    Franses, Philip Hans

    2004-01-01

    textabstractWith the advent of advanced data collection techniques, there is an increased interest in using econometric models to support decisions in marketing. Due to the sometimes specific nature of variables in marketing, the discipline uses econometric models that are rarely, if ever, used elsewhere. This chapter deals with techniques to derive forecasts from these models. Due to the intrinsic non-linear nature of these models, these techniques draw heavliy on simulation techniques.

  13. Effective Feature Preprocessing for Time Series Forecasting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhao, Junhua; Dong, Zhaoyang; Xu, Zhao

    2006-01-01

    Time series forecasting is an important area in data mining research. Feature preprocessing techniques have significant influence on forecasting accuracy, therefore are essential in a forecasting model. Although several feature preprocessing techniques have been applied in time series forecasting...... performance in time series forecasting. It is demonstrated in our experiment that, effective feature preprocessing can significantly enhance forecasting accuracy. This research can be a useful guidance for researchers on effectively selecting feature preprocessing techniques and integrating them with time...... series forecasting models....

  14. Assessment of storm forecast

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cutululis, Nicolaos Antonio; Hahmann, Andrea N.; Huus Bjerge, Martin

    storms was analysed based on historical meteorological data available at Risø DTU and dynamically down-scaled to the Horns Rev 2 wind farm level. This solution was chosen due to the lack of measurements. Moreover, since the project started, there were four events during which Horns Rev 2 wind farm...... at analysing the ability of existing forecast tools to predict storms at the Horns Rev 2 wind farm. The focus will be on predicting the time where the wind turbine will need to shut down to protect itself, e.g. the time where wind speed exceeds 25 m/s. At the same time, the planned shut-down should cost...... stopped, completely or partially, producing due to extreme wind speeds. Wind speed and power measurements from those events are presented and compared to the forecast available at Energinet.dk. The analysis looked at wind speed and wind power forecast. The main conclusion of the analysis is that the wind...

  15. Statistical methods for forecasting

    CERN Document Server

    Abraham, Bovas

    2009-01-01

    The Wiley-Interscience Paperback Series consists of selected books that have been made more accessible to consumers in an effort to increase global appeal and general circulation. With these new unabridged softcover volumes, Wiley hopes to extend the lives of these works by making them available to future generations of statisticians, mathematicians, and scientists."This book, it must be said, lives up to the words on its advertising cover: ''Bridging the gap between introductory, descriptive approaches and highly advanced theoretical treatises, it provides a practical, intermediate level discussion of a variety of forecasting tools, and explains how they relate to one another, both in theory and practice.'' It does just that!"-Journal of the Royal Statistical Society"A well-written work that deals with statistical methods and models that can be used to produce short-term forecasts, this book has wide-ranging applications. It could be used in the context of a study of regression, forecasting, and time series ...

  16. Main: BOX1PVCHS15 [PLACE

    Lifescience Database Archive (English)

    Full Text Available BOX1PVCHS15 S000208 11-May-2006 (last modified) kehi Box 1 of bean (P.v.) chs15 pro...moter; one of SBF-1 binding sites in chs15 promoter; Located at -318 to -305; Involved in organ-specific exp...e Villain et al. (1996); Box 1; chs; chs15; CHS; SBF-1; silencer; organ-specific; Gt; GT-1; GT; bean (Phaseolus vulgaris) TAAAAGTTAAAAAC ...

  17. Evolving forecasting classifications and applications in health forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Soyiri IN

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Ireneous N Soyiri1,2, Daniel D Reidpath11Global Public Health, JCSMHS, MONASH University, Selangor, Malaysia; 2School of Public Health, University of Ghana, Legon, Accra, GhanaAbstract: Health forecasting forewarns the health community about future health situations and disease episodes so that health systems can better allocate resources and manage demand. The tools used for developing and measuring the accuracy and validity of health forecasts commonly are not defined although they are usually adapted forms of statistical procedures. This review identifies previous typologies used in classifying the forecasting methods commonly used in forecasting health conditions or situations. It then discusses the strengths and weaknesses of these methods and presents the choices available for measuring the accuracy of health-forecasting models, including a note on the discrepancies in the modes of validation.Keywords: health forecast, health data, electronic health records, accuracy, cross validation, method, strengths and limitations

  18. VO₂ requirements of boxing exercises.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arseneau, Eric; Mekary, Saïd; Léger, Luc A

    2011-02-01

    The purpose of this study was to quantify the physiological requirements of various boxing exercises such as sparring, pad work, and punching bag. Because it was not possible to measure the oxygen uptake (VO₂) of "true" sparring with a collecting gas valve in the face, we developed and validated a method to measure VO₂ of "true" sparring based on "postexercise" measurements. Nine experienced male amateur boxers (Mean ± SD: age = 22.0 ± 3.5 years, height = 176.0 ± 8.0 cm, weight = 71.4 ± 10.9 kg, number of fights = 13.0 ± 9.5) of regional and provincial level volunteered to participate in 3 testing sessions: (a) maximal treadmill test in the LAB, (b) standardized boxing training in the GYM, and (c) standardized boxing exercises in the LAB. Measures of VO₂, heart rate (HR), blood lactate concentration [LA], rated perceived exertion level, and punching frequencies were collected. VO₂ values of 43.4 ± 5.9, 41.1 ± 5.1, 24.7 ± 6.1, 30.4 ± 5.8, and 38.3 ± 6.5 ml·kg⁻¹·min⁻¹ were obtained, which represent 69.7 ± 8.0, 66.1 ± 8.0, 39.8 ± 10.4, 48.8 ± 8.5, and 61.7 ± 10.3%VO₂peak for sparring, pad work, and punching bag at 60, 120, and 180 b·min⁻¹, respectively. Except for lower VO₂ values for punching the bag at 60 and 120 b·min⁻¹ (p < 0.05), there was no VO₂ difference between exercises. Similar pattern was obtained for %HRmax with respective values of 85.5 ± 5.9, 83.6 ± 6.3, 67.5 ± 3.5, 74.8 ± 5.9, and 83.0 ± 6.0. Finally, sparring %HRmax and [LA] were slightly higher in the GYM (91.7 ± 4.3 and 9.4 ± 2.2 mmol·L⁻¹) vs. LAB (85.5 ± 5.9 and 6.1 ± 2.3 mmol·L⁻¹). Thus, in this study simulated LAB sparring and pad work required similar VO₂ (43-41 ml·kg⁻¹·min⁻¹, respectively), which corresponds to ~70%VO₂peak. These results underline the importance of a minimum of aerobic fitness for boxers and draw some guidelines for the intensity of training.

  19. Statistical earthquake focal mechanism forecasts

    CERN Document Server

    Kagan, Yan Y

    2013-01-01

    Forecasts of the focal mechanisms of future earthquakes are important for seismic hazard estimates and Coulomb stress and other models of earthquake occurrence. Here we report on a high-resolution global forecast of earthquake rate density as a function of location, magnitude, and focal mechanism. In previous publications we reported forecasts of 0.5 degree spatial resolution, covering the latitude range magnitude, and focal mechanism. In previous publications we reported forecasts of 0.5 degree spatial resolution, covering the latitude range from -75 to +75 degrees, based on the Global Central Moment Tensor earthquake catalog. In the new forecasts we've improved the spatial resolution to 0.1 degree and the latitude range from pole to pole. Our focal mechanism estimates require distance-weighted combinations of observed focal mechanisms within 1000 km of each grid point. Simultaneously we calculate an average rotation angle between the forecasted mechanism and all the surrounding mechanisms, using the method ...

  20. Forecasts: uncertain, inaccurate and biased?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nicolaisen, Morten Skou; Ambrasaite, Inga; Salling, Kim Bang

    2012-01-01

    Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA) is the dominating methodology for appraisal of transport infrastructure projects across the globe. In order to adequately assess the costs and benefits of such projects two types of forecasts are crucial to the validity of the appraisal. First are the forecasts...... of construction costs, which account for the majority of total project costs. Second are the forecasts of travel time savings, which account for the majority of total project benefits. The latter of these is, inter alia, determined by forecasts of travel demand, which we shall use as a proxy for the forecasting...... accuracy of project benefits. This paper presents results from an on-going research project on uncertainties in transport project evaluation (UNITE) that find forecasts of demand to be not only uncertain, but at times also highly inaccurate and often displaying a concerning degree of bias. Demand for road...

  1. Projected Applications of a "Climate in a Box" Computing System at the NASA Short-Term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jedlovec, Gary J.; Molthan, Andrew L.; Zavodsky, Bradley; Case, Jonathan L.; LaFontaine, Frank J.

    2010-01-01

    The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center focuses on the transition of unique observations and research capabilities to the operational weather community, with a goal of improving short-term forecasts on a regional scale. Advances in research computing have lead to "Climate in a Box" systems, with hardware configurations capable of producing high resolution, near real-time weather forecasts, but with footprints, power, and cooling requirements that are comparable to desktop systems. The SPoRT Center has developed several capabilities for incorporating unique NASA research capabilities and observations with real-time weather forecasts. Planned utilization includes the development of a fully-cycled data assimilation system used to drive 36-48 hour forecasts produced by the NASA Unified version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model (NU-WRF). The horsepower provided by the "Climate in a Box" system is expected to facilitate the assimilation of vertical profiles of temperature and moisture provided by the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) aboard the NASA Aqua satellite. In addition, the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instruments aboard NASA s Aqua and Terra satellites provide high-resolution sea surface temperatures and vegetation characteristics. The development of MODIS normalized difference vegetation index (NVDI) composites for use within the NASA Land Information System (LIS) will assist in the characterization of vegetation, and subsequently the surface albedo and processes related to soil moisture. Through application of satellite simulators, NASA satellite instruments can be used to examine forecast model errors in cloud cover and other characteristics. Through the aforementioned application of the "Climate in a Box" system and NU-WRF capabilities, an end goal is the establishment of a real-time forecast system that fully integrates modeling and analysis capabilities developed within the NASA SPo

  2. Forecasting Fuels Support Equipment Requisitions

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-03-26

    Simple Exponential Smoothing & Intermittent Demand Simple exponential smoothing (SES) is a forecasting method for when a time series shows no trend or...Koehler, A. B. (2005). Forecasting , Time Series , and Regression: An Applied Approach. Belmont: Brooks/Cole. Chase Jr., C. W. (2013). Demand-Driven...www.saffm.hq.af.mil/shared/media/document/AFD-140304-039.pdf Viswanathan, S., Widiarta, H., & Piplani, R. (2008). Forecasting Aggregate Time Series with

  3. Exchange Rates, Innovations and Forecasting

    OpenAIRE

    Wolff, Christian C

    1987-01-01

    In this paper an ex-post forecasting experiment is performed on the basis of a version of the "news" model of exchange rate determination. A general finding is that the "news" formulation of monetary exchange rate models leads to relatively accurate ex post exchange rate forecasts. Often the results compare favourably with those obtained from the naive random walk forecasting rule. Thus, the evidence presented in this paper supports the argument that the 1983 finding by Meese and Rogoff (that...

  4. On the Influence of Weather Forecast Errors in Short-Term Load Forecasting Models

    OpenAIRE

    Fay, D; Ringwood, John; Condon, M.

    2004-01-01

    Weather information is an important factor in load forecasting models. This weather information usually takes the form of actual weather readings. However, online operation of load forecasting models requires the use of weather forecasts, with associated weather forecast errors. A technique is proposed to model weather forecast errors to reflect current accuracy. A load forecasting model is then proposed which combines the forecasts of several load forecasting models. This approach allows the...

  5. Load forecasting of supermarket refrigeration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Lisa Buth; Bacher, Peder; Madsen, Henrik

    2016-01-01

    in Denmark. Every hour the hourly electrical load for refrigeration is forecasted for the following 42 h. The forecast models are adaptive linear time series models. The model has two regimes; one for opening hours and one for closing hours, this is modeled by a regime switching model and two different......This paper presents a novel study of models for forecasting the electrical load for supermarket refrigeration. The data used for building the models consists of load measurements, local climate measurements and weather forecasts. The load measurements are from a supermarket located in a village...

  6. Earthquake forecasting and its verification

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. R. Holliday

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available No proven method is currently available for the reliable short time prediction of earthquakes (minutes to months. However, it is possible to make probabilistic hazard assessments for earthquake risk. In this paper we discuss a new approach to earthquake forecasting based on a pattern informatics (PI method which quantifies temporal variations in seismicity. The output, which is based on an association of small earthquakes with future large earthquakes, is a map of areas in a seismogenic region ('hotspots'' where earthquakes are forecast to occur in a future 10-year time span. This approach has been successfully applied to California, to Japan, and on a worldwide basis. Because a sharp decision threshold is used, these forecasts are binary--an earthquake is forecast either to occur or to not occur. The standard approach to the evaluation of a binary forecast is the use of the relative (or receiver operating characteristic (ROC diagram, which is a more restrictive test and less subject to bias than maximum likelihood tests. To test our PI method, we made two types of retrospective forecasts for California. The first is the PI method and the second is a relative intensity (RI forecast based on the hypothesis that future large earthquakes will occur where most smaller earthquakes have occurred in the recent past. While both retrospective forecasts are for the ten year period 1 January 2000 to 31 December 2009, we performed an interim analysis 5 years into the forecast. The PI method out performs the RI method under most circumstances.

  7. 49 CFR 38.33 - Fare box.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Fare box. 38.33 Section 38.33 Transportation Office of the Secretary of Transportation AMERICANS WITH DISABILITIES ACT (ADA) ACCESSIBILITY SPECIFICATIONS FOR TRANSPORTATION VEHICLES Buses, Vans and Systems § 38.33 Fare box. Where provided, the farebox shall be located as far forward as...

  8. 36 CFR 1192.33 - Fare box.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 36 Parks, Forests, and Public Property 3 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Fare box. 1192.33 Section 1192.33 Parks, Forests, and Public Property ARCHITECTURAL AND TRANSPORTATION BARRIERS COMPLIANCE BOARD AMERICANS WITH DISABILITIES ACT (ADA) ACCESSIBILITY GUIDELINES FOR TRANSPORTATION VEHICLES Buses, Vans and Systems § 1192.33 Fare box. Where...

  9. Modern biotechnology Panacea or new Pandora's box?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tramper, J.; Yang Zhu, Yang

    2011-01-01

    According to Greek mythology Pandora was sent down to earth upon the orders of Zeus. She was given a mysterious box which she was not allowed to open. However, Pandora was very curious and when she arrived on earth she couldn?t help taking a peek inside the box. She saw that it was filled with gifts

  10. Box Plots in the Australian Curriculum

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watson, Jane M.

    2012-01-01

    This article compares the definition of "box plot" as used in the "Australian Curriculum: Mathematics" with other definitions used in the education community; describes the difficulties students experience when dealing with box plots; and discusses the elaboration that is necessary to enable teachers to develop the knowledge necessary to use them…

  11. Boxing Injuries from an Instructional Program.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Welch, Michael J.; And Others

    1986-01-01

    This paper describes the safeguards as well as the injury pattern of the boxing program at the US Military Academy at West Point from 1983 to 1985. About 2,100 cadets received boxing instruction during this period with an injury rate of less than four percent. (Author/MT)

  12. Solar Indices Forecasting Tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henney, Carl John; Shurkin, Kathleen; Arge, Charles; Hill, Frank

    2016-05-01

    Progress to forecast key space weather parameters using SIFT (Solar Indices Forecasting Tool) with the ADAPT (Air Force Data Assimilative Photospheric flux Transport) model is highlighted in this presentation. Using a magnetic flux transport model, ADAPT, we estimate the solar near-side field distribution that is used as input into empirical models for predicting F10.7(solar 10.7 cm, 2.8 GHz, radio flux), the Mg II core-to-wing ratio, and selected bands of solar far ultraviolet (FUV) and extreme ultraviolet (EUV) irradiance. Input to the ADAPT model includes the inferred photospheric magnetic field from the NISP ground-based instruments, GONG & VSM. Besides a status update regarding ADAPT and SIFT models, we will summarize the findings that: 1) the sum of the absolute value of strong magnetic fields, associated with sunspots, is shown to correlate well with the observed daily F10.7 variability (Henney et al. 2012); and 2) the sum of the absolute value of weak magnetic fields, associated with plage regions, is shown to correlate well with EUV and FUV irradiance variability (Henney et al. 2015). This work utilizes data produced collaboratively between Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL) and the National Solar Observatory (NSO). The ADAPT model development is supported by AFRL. The input data utilized by ADAPT is obtained by NISP (NSO Integrated Synoptic Program). NSO is operated by the Association of Universities for Research in Astronomy (AURA), Inc., under a cooperative agreement with the National Science Foundation (NSF). The 10.7 cm solar radio flux data service, utilized by the ADAPT/SIFT F10.7 forecasting model, is operated by the National Research Council of Canada and National Resources Canada, with the support of the Canadian Space Agency.

  13. Forecasting freight flows

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lyk-Jensen, Stéphanie

    2011-01-01

    . This article models long-term dynamic physical trade flows and estimates a dynamic panel data model for foreign trade for the EU15 and two countries from the EFTA (European Free Trade Association) 1967–2002. The analysis suggests that a dynamic three-way-effects gravity equation is the best-fitted econometric...... model. The analysis uses a structural relationship to explain the structure of the exchange of the goods—a relationship that can be used in the year of forecast. This article also provides a new methodology for converting monetary aggregates into quantity aggregates. The resulting commodity growth rates...

  14. Interactive Forecasting with the National Weather Service River Forecast System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, George F.; Page, Donna

    1993-01-01

    The National Weather Service River Forecast System (NWSRFS) consists of several major hydrometeorologic subcomponents to model the physics of the flow of water through the hydrologic cycle. The entire NWSRFS currently runs in both mainframe and minicomputer environments, using command oriented text input to control the system computations. As computationally powerful and graphically sophisticated scientific workstations became available, the National Weather Service (NWS) recognized that a graphically based, interactive environment would enhance the accuracy and timeliness of NWS river and flood forecasts. Consequently, the operational forecasting portion of the NWSRFS has been ported to run under a UNIX operating system, with X windows as the display environment on a system of networked scientific workstations. In addition, the NWSRFS Interactive Forecast Program was developed to provide a graphical user interface to allow the forecaster to control NWSRFS program flow and to make adjustments to forecasts as necessary. The potential market for water resources forecasting is immense and largely untapped. Any private company able to market the river forecasting technologies currently developed by the NWS Office of Hydrology could provide benefits to many information users and profit from providing these services.

  15. Flood Forecasting Based on TIGGE Precipitation Ensemble Forecast

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jinyin Ye

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available TIGGE (THORPEX International Grand Global Ensemble was a major part of the THORPEX (Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment. It integrates ensemble precipitation products from all the major forecast centers in the world and provides systematic evaluation on the multimodel ensemble prediction system. Development of meteorologic-hydrologic coupled flood forecasting model and early warning model based on the TIGGE precipitation ensemble forecast can provide flood probability forecast, extend the lead time of the flood forecast, and gain more time for decision-makers to make the right decision. In this study, precipitation ensemble forecast products from ECMWF, NCEP, and CMA are used to drive distributed hydrologic model TOPX. We focus on Yi River catchment and aim to build a flood forecast and early warning system. The results show that the meteorologic-hydrologic coupled model can satisfactorily predict the flow-process of four flood events. The predicted occurrence time of peak discharges is close to the observations. However, the magnitude of the peak discharges is significantly different due to various performances of the ensemble prediction systems. The coupled forecasting model can accurately predict occurrence of the peak time and the corresponding risk probability of peak discharge based on the probability distribution of peak time and flood warning, which can provide users a strong theoretical foundation and valuable information as a promising new approach.

  16. Probabilistic energy forecasting: Global Energy Forecasting Competition 2014 and beyond

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hong, Tao; Pinson, Pierre; Fan, Shu

    2016-01-01

    The energy industry has been going through a significant modernization process over the last decade. Its infrastructure is being upgraded rapidly. The supply, demand and prices are becoming more volatile and less predictable than ever before. Even its business model is being challenged fundamenta...... competition with four tracks on load, price, wind and solar forecasting, which attracted 581 participants from 61 countries. We conclude the paper with 12 predictions for the next decade of energy forecasting.......The energy industry has been going through a significant modernization process over the last decade. Its infrastructure is being upgraded rapidly. The supply, demand and prices are becoming more volatile and less predictable than ever before. Even its business model is being challenged...... fundamentally. In this competitive and dynamic environment, many decision-making processes rely on probabilistic forecasts to quantify the uncertain future. Although most of the papers in the energy forecasting literature focus on point or singlevalued forecasts, the research interest in probabilistic energy...

  17. Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) [1 Deg.

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) is a weather forecast model made up of 21 separate forecasts, or ensemble members. The National Centers for Environmental...

  18. Improving Local Weather Forecasts for Agricultural Applications

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Doeswijk, T.G.; Keesman, K.J.

    2005-01-01

    For controlling agricultural systems, weather forecasts can be of substantial importance. Studies have shown that forecast errors can be reduced in terms of bias and standard deviation using forecasts and meteorological measurements from one specific meteorological station. For agricultural systems

  19. FORECASTING NEW PRODUCT SALES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Siriram

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available

    ENGLISH ABSTRACT: This paper tests the accuracy of using Linear regression, Logistics regression, and Bass curves in selected new product rollouts, based on sales data. The selected new products come from the electronics and electrical engineering and information and communications technology industries. The eight selected products are: electronic switchgear, electric motors, supervisory control and data acquisition systems, programmable logic controllers, cell phones, wireless modules, routers, and antennas. We compare the Linear regression, Logistics regression and Bass curves with respect to forecasting using analysis of variance. The accuracy of these three curves is studied and conclusions are drawn. We use an expert panel to compare the different curves and provide lessons for managers to improve forecasting new product sales. In addition, comparison between the two industries is drawn, and areas for further research are indicated.

    AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Hierdie artikel toets die akkuraatheid van die gebruik van linêere regressie, logistiese regressie en Bass-krommes by die bekendstelling van nuwe produkte gebaseer op verkoopsdata. Die geselekteerde nuwe produkte is uit die elektriese en elektroniese asook informasietegnologie- en kommunikasie bedrywe. Linêere regressie, logistiese regressie en Bass-krommes word vergelyk ten opsigte van vooruitskatting deur variansie te ontleed. Die akkuraatheid word ontleed en gevolgtrekkings gemaak. Die doel is om vooruitskatting van nuwe produkverkope te verbeter.

  20. WIMAX TRAFFIC MODEL BASED ON TIME SERIES FOR FORECAST FUTURE VALUES OF TRAFFIC

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cesar Augusto Hernández Suarez

    2009-03-01

    Full Text Available El objetivo de esta investigación es demostrar que las series de tiempo son una excelente herramienta para el modelamiento de tráfico de datos en redes Wimax. Para lograr este objetivo se utilizó la metodología de Box-Jenkins, la cual se describe en este artículo. El modelamiento de tráfico Wimax a través de modelos correlacionados como las series de tiempo permiten ajustar gran parte de la dinámica del comportamiento de los datos en una ecuación y con base en esto estimar valores futuros de tráfico. Lo anterior es una ventaja para la planeación de cobertura, reservación de recursos y la realización de un control más oportuno y eficiente en forma integrada a diferentes niveles de la jerarquía funcional de la red de datos Wimax. Como resultado de la investigación se obtuvo un modelo de tráfico ARIMA de orden 18, el cual realizó pronósticos de tráfico con valores del error cuadrático medio relativamente pequeños, para un periodo de 10 días.

  1. Forecasting Using Random Subspace Methods

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    T. Boot (Tom); D. Nibbering (Didier)

    2016-01-01

    textabstractRandom subspace methods are a novel approach to obtain accurate forecasts in high-dimensional regression settings. We provide a theoretical justification of the use of random subspace methods and show their usefulness when forecasting monthly macroeconomic variables. We focus on two appr

  2. Weather Forecasting Systems and Methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mecikalski, John (Inventor); MacKenzie, Wayne M., Jr. (Inventor); Walker, John Robert (Inventor)

    2014-01-01

    A weather forecasting system has weather forecasting logic that receives raw image data from a satellite. The raw image data has values indicative of light and radiance data from the Earth as measured by the satellite, and the weather forecasting logic processes such data to identify cumulus clouds within the satellite images. For each identified cumulus cloud, the weather forecasting logic applies interest field tests to determine a score indicating the likelihood of the cumulus cloud forming precipitation and/or lightning in the future within a certain time period. Based on such scores, the weather forecasting logic predicts in which geographic regions the identified cumulus clouds will produce precipitation and/or lighting within during the time period. Such predictions may then be used to provide a weather map thereby providing users with a graphical illustration of the areas predicted to be affected by precipitation within the time period.

  3. River flow forecasting: use of phase-space reconstruction and artificial neural networks approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sivakumar, B.; Jayawardena, A. W.; Fernando, T. M. K. G.

    2002-08-01

    The use of two non-linear black-box approaches, phase-space reconstruction (PSR) and artificial neural networks (ANN), for forecasting river flow dynamics is studied and a comparison of their performances is made. This is done by attempting 1-day and 7-day ahead forecasts of the daily river flow from the Nakhon Sawan station at the Chao Phraya River basin in Thailand. The results indicate a reasonably good performance of both approaches for both 1-day and 7-day ahead forecasts. However, the performance of the PSR approach is found to be consistently better than that of ANN. One reason for this could be that in the PSR approach the flow series in the phase-space is represented step by step in local neighborhoods, rather than a global approximation as is done in ANN. Another reason could be the use of the multi-layer perceptron (MLP) in ANN, since MLPs may not be most appropriate for forecasting at longer lead times. The selection of training set for the ANN may also contribute to such results. A comparison of the optimal number of variables for capturing the flow dynamics, as identified by the two approaches, indicates a large discrepancy in the case of 7-day ahead forecasts (1 and 7 variables, respectively), though for 1-day ahead forecasts it is found to be consistent (3 variables). A possible explanation for this could be the influence of noise in the data, an observation also made from the 1-day ahead forecast results using the PSR approach. The present results lead to observation on: (1) the use of other neural networks for runoff forecasting, particularly at longer lead times; (2) the influence of training set used in the ANN; and (3) the effect of noise on forecast accuracy, particularly in the PSR approach.

  4. MADS-box gene evolution - structure and transcription patterns

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Johansen, Bo; Pedersen, Louise Buchholt; Skipper, Martin;

    2002-01-01

    Mads-box genes, ABC model, Evolution, Phylogeny, Transcription patterns, Gene structure, Conserved motifs......Mads-box genes, ABC model, Evolution, Phylogeny, Transcription patterns, Gene structure, Conserved motifs...

  5. Forecasting global atmospheric CO2

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Agustí-Panareda

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available A new global atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2 real-time forecast is now available as part of the pre-operational Monitoring of Atmospheric Composition and Climate – Interim Implementation (MACC-II service using the infrastructure of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System (IFS. One of the strengths of the CO2 forecasting system is that the land surface, including vegetation CO2 fluxes, is modelled online within the IFS. Other CO2 fluxes are prescribed from inventories and from off-line statistical and physical models. The CO2 forecast also benefits from the transport modelling from a state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction (NWP system initialized daily with a wealth of meteorological observations. This paper describes the capability of the forecast in modelling the variability of CO2 on different temporal and spatial scales compared to observations. The modulation of the amplitude of the CO2 diurnal cycle by near-surface winds and boundary layer height is generally well represented in the forecast. The CO2 forecast also has high skill in simulating day-to-day synoptic variability. In the atmospheric boundary layer, this skill is significantly enhanced by modelling the day-to-day variability of the CO2 fluxes from vegetation compared to using equivalent monthly mean fluxes with a diurnal cycle. However, biases in the modelled CO2 fluxes also lead to accumulating errors in the CO2 forecast. These biases vary with season with an underestimation of the amplitude of the seasonal cycle both for the CO2 fluxes compared to total optimized fluxes and the atmospheric CO2 compared to observations. The largest biases in the atmospheric CO2 forecast are found in spring, corresponding to the onset of the growing season in the Northern Hemisphere. In the future, the forecast will be re-initialized regularly with atmospheric CO2 analyses based on the assimilation of CO2 satellite retrievals, as they

  6. Forecasting Turbine Icing Events

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Davis, Neil; Hahmann, Andrea N.; Clausen, Niels-Erik;

    2012-01-01

    is not shut down for its protection. We also found that there is a a large spread across the various turbines within a wind park, in the amount of icing. This is currently not taken into account by our model. Evaluating and adding these small scale differences to the model will be undertaken as future work....... accumulations, which have not been seen in observations. In addition to the model evaluation we were able to investigate the potential occurrence of ice induced power loss at two wind parks in Europe using observed data. We found that the potential loss during an icing event is large even when the turbine......In this study, we present a method for forecasting icing events. The method is validated at two European wind farms in with known icing events. The icing model used was developed using current ice accretion methods, and newly developed ablation algorithms. The model is driven by inputs from the WRF...

  7. Atmospheric composition forecasting in Europe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Menut

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available The atmospheric composition is a societal issue and, following new European directives, its forecast is now recommended to quantify the air quality. It concerns both gaseous and particles species, identified as potential problems for health. In Europe, numerical systems providing daily air quality forecasts are numerous and, mostly, operated by universities. Following recent European research projects (GEMS, PROMOTE, an organization of the air quality forecast is currently under development. But for the moment, many platforms exist, each of them with strengths and weaknesses. This overview paper presents all existing systems in Europe and try to identify the main remaining gaps in the air quality forecast knowledge. As modeling systems are now able to reasonably forecast gaseous species, and in a lesser extent aerosols, the future directions would concern the use of these systems with ensemble approaches and satellite data assimilation. If numerous improvements were recently done on emissions and chemistry knowledge, improvements are still needed especially concerning meteorology, which remains a weak point of forecast systems. Future directions will also concern the use of these forecast tools to better understand and quantify the air pollution impact on health.

  8. Forecasting incidence of dengue in Rajasthan, using time series analyses

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sunil Bhatnagar

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Aim: To develop a prediction model for dengue fever/dengue haemorrhagic fever (DF/DHF using time series data over the past decade in Rajasthan and to forecast monthly DF/DHF incidence for 2011. Materials and Methods: Seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA model was used for statistical modeling. Results: During January 2001 to December 2010, the reported DF/DHF cases showed a cyclical pattern with seasonal variation. SARIMA (0,0,1 (0,1,1 12 model had the lowest normalized Bayesian information criteria (BIC of 9.426 and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE of 263.361 and appeared to be the best model. The proportion of variance explained by the model was 54.3%. Adequacy of the model was established through Ljung-Box test (Q statistic 4.910 and P-value 0.996, which showed no significant correlation between residuals at different lag times. The forecast for the year 2011 showed a seasonal peak in the month of October with an estimated 546 cases. Conclusion: Application of SARIMA model may be useful for forecast of cases and impending outbreaks of DF/DHF and other infectious diseases, which exhibit seasonal pattern.

  9. Cosmetic Foot Surgery: Fashion's Pandora's Box

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... A A A | Print | Share Cosmetic Foot Surgery: Fashion’s Pandora’s Box? Foot and ankle surgeons warn against ... a "face lift" and fit them into high-fashion shoes. But physician members of the American College ...

  10. Light Therapy Boxes for Seasonal Affective Disorder

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diseases and Conditions Seasonal affective disorder (SAD) Light therapy boxes can offer an effective treatment for seasonal affective disorder. Features such as light intensity, safety, cost and style are important considerations. ...

  11. Starling nest box monitoring [Rocky Mountain Arsenal

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — This document described the standard operating procedures for observing and recording data collected from starling nest box monitoring at the Rocky Mountain Arsenal....

  12. Packing a cake into a box

    KAUST Repository

    Skopenkov, Mikhail

    2011-05-01

    Given a triangular cake and a box in the shape of its mirror image, how can the cake be cut into a minimal number of pieces so that it can be put into the box? The cake has icing, so we are not allowed to put it into the box upside down. V. G. Boltyansky asked this question in 1977 and showed that three pieces always suffice. In this paper we provide examples of cakes that cannot be cut into two pieces to be put into the box. This shows that three is the answer to Boltyansky\\'s question. We also give examples of cakes which can be cut into two pieces. © THE MATHEMATICAL ASSOCIATION OF AMERICA.

  13. Packing a cake into a box

    CERN Document Server

    Skopenkov, Mikhail

    2010-01-01

    Given a cake in form of a triangle and a box that fits the mirror image of the cake, how to cut the cake into a minimal number of pieces so that it can be put into the box? The cake has an icing, so that we are not allowed to put it into the box upside down. V.G. Boltyansky asked this question in 1977 and showed that three pieces always suffice. In this paper we provide examples of cakes that cannot be cut into two pieces to put into the box. This shows that three is the answer to V.G. Boltyansky's question. Also we give examples of cakes which can be cut into two pieces.

  14. Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2) Operational Forecasts

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2) produced by the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) is a fully coupled model representing the...

  15. Earthquake forecasting: Statistics and Information

    CERN Document Server

    Gertsik, V; Krichevets, A

    2013-01-01

    We present an axiomatic approach to earthquake forecasting in terms of multi-component random fields on a lattice. This approach provides a method for constructing point estimates and confidence intervals for conditional probabilities of strong earthquakes under conditions on the levels of precursors. Also, it provides an approach for setting multilevel alarm system and hypothesis testing for binary alarms. We use a method of comparison for different earthquake forecasts in terms of the increase of Shannon information. 'Forecasting' and 'prediction' of earthquakes are equivalent in this approach.

  16. Black Sea coastal forecasting system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. I. Kubryakov

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available The Black Sea coastal nowcasting and forecasting system was built within the framework of EU FP6 ECOOP (European COastalshelf sea OPerational observing and forecasting system project for five regions: the south-western basin along the coasts of Bulgaria and Turkey, the north-western shelf along the Romanian and Ukrainian coasts, coastal zone around of the Crimea peninsula, the north-eastern Russian coastal zone and the coastal zone of Georgia. The system operates in the real-time mode during the ECOOP project and afterwards. The forecasts include temperature, salinity and current velocity fields. Ecosystem model operates in the off-line mode near the Crimea coast.

  17. The Spectra of Des S-Boxes

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-06-01

    function takes an n-bit ciphertext with a k-bit key and maps the combination into an n-bit plaintext. In traditional math lingo , E and D undo each... analysis went into the selection of the eight S-Boxes. Yet, a randomly designed S-Box can often achieve an adequate level of resistance to attacks...argues that IBM knew of this technique and purposely designed the algorithm to defeat this technique. Regardless, differential crypt- analysis is

  18. BOX-DEATH HOLLOW ROADLESS AREA, UTAH.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weir, Gordon W.; Lane, Michael

    1984-01-01

    Geologic mapping, geochemical sampling, and a search for prospects and mineralized rock in the Box-Death Hollow Roadless Area, Utah indicate that there is little promise for the occurrence of mineral or energy resources in the area. Additional exploratory drilling by industry seems warranted if wells elsewhere in the region find oil or gas in strata as yet untested in the Box-Death Hollow Roadless Area.

  19. A look inside the actuarial black box.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Math, S E; Youngerman, H

    1992-12-01

    Hospital executives often rely on actuaries (and their "black boxes") to determine self-insurance program liabilities and funding contributions. Typically, the hospital supplies the actuary with a myriad of statistics, and eventually the hospital receives a liability estimate and recommended funding level. The mysterious actuarial calculations that occur in between data reporting and receipt of the actuary's report are akin to a black box--a complicated device whose internal mechanism is hidden from or mysterious to the user.

  20. Random Young diagrams in a Rectangular Box

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Beltoft, Dan; Boutillier, Cédric; Enriquez, Nathanaël

    We exhibit the limit shape of random Young diagrams having a distribution proportional to the exponential of their area, and confined in a rectangular box. The Ornstein-Uhlenbeck bridge arises from the fluctuations around the limit shape.......We exhibit the limit shape of random Young diagrams having a distribution proportional to the exponential of their area, and confined in a rectangular box. The Ornstein-Uhlenbeck bridge arises from the fluctuations around the limit shape....

  1. HYDROGEN AND VOC RETENTION IN WASTE BOXES

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    PACE ME; MARUSICH RM

    2008-11-21

    The Hanford Waste Management Project Master Documented Safety Analysis (MDSA) (HNF-14741, 2003) identifies derived safety controls to prevent or mitigate the risks of a single-container deflagration during operations requiring moving, venting or opening transuranic (TRU)-waste containers. The issue is whether these safety controls are necessary for operations involving TRU-waste boxes that are being retrieved from burial at the Hanford Site. This paper investigates the potential for a deflagration hazard within these boxes and whether safety controls identified for drum deflagration hazards should be applied to operations involving these boxes. The study evaluates the accumulation of hydrogen and VOCs within the waste box and the transport of these gases and vapors out of the waste box. To perform the analysis, there were numerous and major assumptions made regarding the generation rate and the transport pathway dimensions and their number. Since there is little actual data with regards to these assumptions, analyses of three potential configurations were performed to obtain some indication of the bounds of the issue (the concentration of hydrogen or flammable VOCs within a waste box). A brief description of each of the three cases along with the results of the analysis is summarized.

  2. Amateur boxing: physical and physiological attributes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaabène, Helmi; Tabben, Montassar; Mkaouer, Bessem; Franchini, Emerson; Negra, Yassine; Hammami, Mehrez; Amara, Samiha; Chaabène, Raja Bouguezzi; Hachana, Younés

    2015-03-01

    Boxing is one of the oldest combat sports. The aim of the current review is to critically analyze the amateur boxer's physical and physiological characteristics and to provide practical recommendations for training as well as new areas of scientific research. High-level male and female boxers show a propensity for low body fat levels. Although studies on boxer somatotypes are limited, the available information shows that elite-level male boxers are characterized by a higher proportion of mesomorphy with a well-developed muscle mass and a low body fat level. To help support the overall metabolic demands of a boxing match and to accelerate the recovery process between rounds, athletes of both sexes require a high level of cardiorespiratory fitness. International boxers show a high peak and mean anaerobic power output. Muscle strength in both the upper and lower limbs is paramount for a fighter's victory and is one of the keys to success in boxing. As boxing punches are brief actions and very dynamic, high-level boxing performance requires well-developed muscle power in both the upper and lower limbs. Albeit limited, the available studies reveal that isometric strength is linked to high-level boxing performance. Future investigations into the physical and physiological attributes of boxers are required to enrich the current data set and to help create a suitable training program.

  3. 25 years of time series forecasting

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Gooijer, J.G.; Hyndman, R.J.

    2006-01-01

    We review the past 25 years of research into time series forecasting. In this silver jubilee issue, we naturally highlight results published in journals managed by the International Institute of Forecasters (Journal of Forecasting 1982-1985 and International Journal of Forecasting 1985-2005). During

  4. Forecasting the Integration of Immigrants

    CERN Document Server

    Contucci, Pierluigi; Seyedi, Seyedalireza

    2015-01-01

    This paper presents a quantitative framework for forecasting immigrant integration using immigrant density as the single driver. By comparing forecasted integration estimates based on data collected up to specific periods in time, with observed integration quantities beyond the specified period, we show that: Our forecasts are prompt-readily available after a short period of time, accurate-with a small relative error-and finally robust-able to predict integration correctly for several years to come. The research reported here proves that the proposed model of integration and its forecast framework are simple and effective tools to reduce uncertainties about how integration phenomena emerge and how they are likely to develop in response to increased migration levels in the future.

  5. Recurrent networks for wave forecasting

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Mandal, S.; Prabaharan, N.

    , merchant vessel routing, nearshore construction, etc. more efficiently and safely. This paper presents an application of the Artificial Neural Network, namely Backpropagation Recurrent Neural Network (BRNN) with rprop update algorithm for wave forecasting...

  6. Forecasting Thermosphere Density: an Overview

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bruinsma, S.

    2015-12-01

    Our knowledge of the thermosphere has improved considerably since 2000 thanks to the availability of high-resolution accelerometer inferred densities. Consequently, precision and shortcomings of thermosphere models are better known. Thermosphere density forecast accuracy is limited by: 1) the accuracy of the thermosphere model 2) the solar and geomagnetic activity forecast 3) the quality of the data assimilation system. The precision of semi-empirical thermosphere models is 10-25%. Solar activity forecasts can be accurate up to 5 days. They become less accurate with time, but some proxies are more forecastable than others. Geomagnetic activity forecasting is more problematic, since in most cases storm events cannot be predicted on any time scale. The forecast accuracy is ultimately bounded by the thermosphere model precision and the (varying) degree to which mainly the solar proxy represents EUV heating of the atmosphere. Both errors can be corrected for by means of near real time (nrt) assimilation of satellite drag data, provided that the data is of high quality. At present, only the classified High Accuracy Satellite Drag Model of the Air Force has that capability operationally, even if other prototype nrt models have been developed. Data assimilation significantly improves density forecasts up to 72-hours out; there is no gain for longer periods due to the short memory of the thermosphere system. Only physical models, e.g. TIMEGCM and CTIPe, can in principle reproduce the dynamic changes in density for example during geomagnetic storms. However, accurate information on atmospheric heating is often missing, or not used. When it is, observed and modeled Traveling Atmospheric Disturbances are very similar. Nonmigrating tides and waves propagating from the lower atmosphere cause longitudinal density variations; sources of geophysical noise for semi-empirical models, they can be predicted qualitatively and sometimes quantitatively with physical models. This

  7. On forecasting Exchange Rate Volatility.

    OpenAIRE

    Hafner, Christian

    2003-01-01

    In an efficient market, foreign exchange rates have to guarantee absence of triangular arbitrage. This note shows that the no-arbitrage condition can be exploited for forecasting the volatility of a single rate by using the information contained in the other rates. Linearly transforming the volatility forecasts of a bivariate model is shown to be more efficient than using a univariate model for the cross-rate.

  8. 49 CFR 178.517 - Standards for plastic boxes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 2 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Standards for plastic boxes. 178.517 Section 178... PACKAGINGS Non-bulk Performance-Oriented Packaging Standards § 178.517 Standards for plastic boxes. (a) The following are identification codes for plastic boxes: (1) 4H1 for an expanded plastic box; and (2) 4H2 for...

  9. 49 CFR 230.101 - Steam locomotive driving journal boxes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Steam locomotive driving journal boxes. 230.101... Locomotives and Tenders Running Gear § 230.101 Steam locomotive driving journal boxes. (a) Driving journal boxes. Driving journal boxes shall be maintained in a safe and suitable condition for service. Not...

  10. Complementarity in the Einstein-Bohr photon box

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dieks, D.G.B.J.; Lam, S

    2008-01-01

    The Bohr-Einstein photon box thought experiment is a forerunner of the EPR experiment: a packet of radiation escapes from a box, and the box-plus-radiation state remains entangled. Hence, a measurement on the box makes a difference for the state of the far-away radiation long after its escape. This

  11. Municipal water consumption forecast accuracy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fullerton, Thomas M.; Molina, Angel L.

    2010-06-01

    Municipal water consumption planning is an active area of research because of infrastructure construction and maintenance costs, supply constraints, and water quality assurance. In spite of that, relatively few water forecast accuracy assessments have been completed to date, although some internal documentation may exist as part of the proprietary "grey literature." This study utilizes a data set of previously published municipal consumption forecasts to partially fill that gap in the empirical water economics literature. Previously published municipal water econometric forecasts for three public utilities are examined for predictive accuracy against two random walk benchmarks commonly used in regional analyses. Descriptive metrics used to quantify forecast accuracy include root-mean-square error and Theil inequality statistics. Formal statistical assessments are completed using four-pronged error differential regression F tests. Similar to studies for other metropolitan econometric forecasts in areas with similar demographic and labor market characteristics, model predictive performances for the municipal water aggregates in this effort are mixed for each of the municipalities included in the sample. Given the competitiveness of the benchmarks, analysts should employ care when utilizing econometric forecasts of municipal water consumption for planning purposes, comparing them to recent historical observations and trends to insure reliability. Comparative results using data from other markets, including regions facing differing labor and demographic conditions, would also be helpful.

  12. A New Way to Predict Forecast Skill

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    谭季青; 谢正辉; 纪立人

    2003-01-01

    Forecast skill (Anomaly Correlated Coefficient, ACC) is a quantity to show the forecast quality ofthe products of numerical weather forecasting models. Predicting forecast skill, which is the foundationof ensemble forecasting, means submitting products to predict their forecast quality before they are used.Checking the reason is to understand the predictability for the real cases. This kind of forecasting servicehas been put into operational use by statistical methods previously at the National Meteorological Center(NMC), USA (now called the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)) and European Centerfor Medium-range Weather Forecast (ECMWF). However, this kind of service is far from satisfactorybecause only a single variable is used with the statistical method. In this paper, a new way based onthe Grey Control Theory with multiple predictors to predict forecast skill of forecast products of theT42L9 of the NMC, China Meteorological Administration (CMA) is introduced. The results show: (1)The correlation coefficients between "forecasted" and real forecast skill range from 0.56 to 0.7 at differentseasons during the two-year period. (2) The grey forecasting model GM(1,8) forecasts successfully thehigh peaks, the increasing or decreasing tendency, and the turning points of the change of forecast skill ofcases from 5 January 1990 to 29 February 1992.

  13. HESS Opinions "Forecaster priorities for improving probabilistic flood forecasts"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wetterhall, F.; Pappenberger, F.; Alfieri, L.; Cloke, H. L.; Thielen-del Pozo, J.; Balabanova, S.; Daňhelka, J.; Vogelbacher, A.; Salamon, P.; Carrasco, I.; Cabrera-Tordera, A. J.; Corzo-Toscano, M.; Garcia-Padilla, M.; Garcia-Sanchez, R. J.; Ardilouze, C.; Jurela, S.; Terek, B.; Csik, A.; Casey, J.; Stankūnavičius, G.; Ceres, V.; Sprokkereef, E.; Stam, J.; Anghel, E.; Vladikovic, D.; Alionte Eklund, C.; Hjerdt, N.; Djerv, H.; Holmberg, F.; Nilsson, J.; Nyström, K.; Sušnik, M.; Hazlinger, M.; Holubecka, M.

    2013-11-01

    Hydrological ensemble prediction systems (HEPS) have in recent years been increasingly used for the operational forecasting of floods by European hydrometeorological agencies. The most obvious advantage of HEPS is that more of the uncertainty in the modelling system can be assessed. In addition, ensemble prediction systems generally have better skill than deterministic systems both in the terms of the mean forecast performance and the potential forecasting of extreme events. Research efforts have so far mostly been devoted to the improvement of the physical and technical aspects of the model systems, such as increased resolution in time and space and better description of physical processes. Developments like these are certainly needed; however, in this paper we argue that there are other areas of HEPS that need urgent attention. This was also the result from a group exercise and a survey conducted to operational forecasters within the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS) to identify the top priorities of improvement regarding their own system. They turned out to span a range of areas, the most popular being to include verification of an assessment of past forecast performance, a multi-model approach for hydrological modelling, to increase the forecast skill on the medium range (>3 days) and more focus on education and training on the interpretation of forecasts. In light of limited resources, we suggest a simple model to classify the identified priorities in terms of their cost and complexity to decide in which order to tackle them. This model is then used to create an action plan of short-, medium- and long-term research priorities with the ultimate goal of an optimal improvement of EFAS in particular and to spur the development of operational HEPS in general.

  14. Probabilistic online runoff forecasting for urban catchments using inputs from rain gauges as well as statically and dynamically adjusted weather radar

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Löwe, Roland; Thorndahl, Søren; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen

    2014-01-01

    are considered that account for the spatial distribution of rainfall in different degrees of detail. Considering two urban example catchments, we show that statically adjusted radar rainfall input improves the quality of probabilistic runoff forecasts as compared to input based on rain gauge observations......We investigate the application of rainfall observations and forecasts from rain gauges and weather radar as input to operational urban runoff forecasting models. We apply lumped rainfall runoff models implemented in a stochastic grey-box modelling framework. Different model structures...... runoff forecasts compared to the structures considering mean areal rainfall only. A time-dynamic adjustment of the radar data to rain gauge data provides improved rainfall forecasts when compared with rainfall observations on the ground. However, dynamic adjustment reduces the potential for creating...

  15. Slat Heater Boxes for Thermal Vacuum Testing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ungar, Eugene

    2003-01-01

    Slat heater boxes have been invented for controlling the sink temperatures of objects under test in a thermal vacuum chamber, the walls of which are cooled to the temperature of liquid nitrogen. A slat heater box (see Figure 1) includes a framework of struts that support electrically heated slats that are coated with a high-emissivity optically gray paint. The slats can be grouped together into heater zones for the purpose of maintaining an even temperature within each side. The sink temperature of an object under test is defined as the steady-state temperature of the object in the vacuum/ radiative environment during the absence of any internal heat source or sink. The slat heater box makes it possible to closely control the radiation environment to obtain a desired sink temperature. The slat heater box is placed inside the cold thermal vacuum chamber, and the object under test is placed inside (but not in contact with) the slat heater box. The slat heaters occupy about a third of the field of view from any point on the surface of the object under test, the remainder of the field of view being occupied by the cold chamber wall. Thus, the radiation environment is established by the combined effects of the slat heater box and the cold chamber wall. Given (1) the temperature of the chamber wall, (2) the fractions of the field of view occupied by the chamber wall and the slat heater box, and (3) the emissivities of the slats, chamber wall, and the surface of object under test, the slat temperature required to maintain a desired sink temperature can be calculated by solving the equations of gray-body radiation for the steady-state adiabatic case (equal absorption and emission by the object under test). Slat heater boxes offer an important advantage over the infrared lamps that have been previously used to obtain desired sink temperatures: In comparison with an infrared lamp, a slat heater box provides a greater degree of sink temperature uniformity for a test

  16. Changes in position and quality of preferred nest box: effects on nest box use by laying hens

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Riber, Anja Brinch; Nielsen, Birte L.

    2013-01-01

    Using laying hens, we investigated whether position of a nest box, both within the pen and relative to other nest boxes, influenced the preference for a nest box, and how a sudden and marked change to the preferred box influenced the use of nest boxes by the hens. Groups (n=12) of 15 Isa Warren...... revealed that some hens were location conservative, i.e. continued laying in a corner location (or as close to that as possible), whereas others were isolation conservative, i.e. continued laying in the most isolated nest box despite it being positioned in a different area of the pen....... hens were housed in pens, each with five identical nest boxes in different positions: Two single (in a corner or not) and a triplet of nest boxes (one of which in a corner). The use of nest boxes was determined by the number of eggs laid daily in each box. Three experiments, each lasting 10 days, were...

  17. On the reliability of Seasonal Climate Forecasts

    CERN Document Server

    Weisheimer, Antje

    2013-01-01

    Seasonal climate forecasts are being used increasingly across a range of application sectors. A recent UK governmental report asked: How good are seasonal climate forecasts on a scale of 1-5 (where 5 is very good), and how good can we expect them to be in 30 years time? Seasonal climate forecasts are made from ensembles of integrations of numerical models of climate. We argue that goodness should be assessed primarily in terms of the probabilistic reliability of these ensemble-based forecasts and that a 5 should be reserved for systems which are not only reliable overall, but where, in particular, small ensemble spread is a reliable indicator of low ensemble forecast error. We study the reliability of regional temperature and precipitation forecasts of the current operational seasonal forecast system of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, universally regarded as a world leading operational institute producing seasonal climate forecasts. A wide range of goodness rankings, depending on regio...

  18. Black-Box Search by Unbiased Variation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lehre, Per Kristian; Witt, Carsten

    2012-01-01

    and the strength of the bounds that can be proven in such a model. In particular, the original black-box model provides for well-known benchmark problems relatively small lower bounds, which seem unrealistic in certain cases and are typically not met by popular search heuristics.In this paper, we introduce a more...... restricted black-box model for optimisation of pseudo-Boolean functions which we claim captures the working principles of many randomised search heuristics including simulated annealing, evolutionary algorithms, randomised local search, and others. The key concept worked out is an unbiased variation operator....... Considering this class of algorithms, significantly better lower bounds on the black-box complexity are proved, amongst them an Ω(nlogn) bound for functions with unique optimum. Moreover, a simple unimodal function and plateau functions are considered. We show that a simple (1+1) EA is able to match...

  19. Advances in the theory of box integrals

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bailey, David H.; Borwein, J.M.; Crandall, R.E.

    2009-06-25

    Box integrals - expectations <|{rvec r}|{sup s}> or <|{rvec r}-{rvec q}|{sup s}> over the unit n-cube (or n-box) - have over three decades been occasionally given closed forms for isolated n,s. By employing experimental mathematics together with a new, global analytic strategy, we prove that for n {le} 4 dimensions the box integrals are for any integer s hypergeometrically closed in a sense we clarify herein. For n = 5 dimensions, we show that a single unresolved integral we call K{sub 5} stands in the way of such hyperclosure proofs. We supply a compendium of exemplary closed forms that naturally arise algorithmically from this theory.

  20. General Analysis Tool Box for Controlled Perturbation

    CERN Document Server

    Osbild, Ralf

    2012-01-01

    The implementation of reliable and efficient geometric algorithms is a challenging task. The reason is the following conflict: On the one hand, computing with rounded arithmetic may question the reliability of programs while, on the other hand, computing with exact arithmetic may be too expensive and hence inefficient. One solution is the implementation of controlled perturbation algorithms which combine the speed of floating-point arithmetic with a protection mechanism that guarantees reliability, nonetheless. This paper is concerned with the performance analysis of controlled perturbation algorithms in theory. We answer this question with the presentation of a general analysis tool box. This tool box is separated into independent components which are presented individually with their interfaces. This way, the tool box supports alternative approaches for the derivation of the most crucial bounds. We present three approaches for this task. Furthermore, we have thoroughly reworked the concept of controlled per...

  1. FAST BUS Test Box (LAIKA) (Engineering Materials)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1983-01-01

    The assembly drawing AD 135-518-00-RO, and the drawings referenced thereon, provide the data and specifications for constructing the LAIKA Test Box. Some drawings are not available, although they are listed on the material lists included. The assembly is a manual tester for FAST BUS modules, both masters and slaves. FAST BUS signals are generated by means of switches or push buttons and provide the state of the bus lines by lighting LED's. The box acts as either a master or slave - depending upon the module under test. It also acts as an ATC to test the arbitration logic of a master or ATC device.

  2. CASAS: A Smart Home in a Box.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cook, Diane J; Crandall, Aaron S; Thomas, Brian L; Krishnan, Narayanan C

    2013-07-01

    While the potential benefits of smart home technology are widely recognized, a lightweight design is needed for the benefits to be realized at a large scale. We introduce the CASAS "smart home in a box", a lightweight smart home design that is easy to install and provides smart home capabilities out of the box with no customization or training. We discuss types of data analysis that have been performed by the CASAS group and can be pursued in the future by using this approach to designing and implementing smart home technologies.

  3. CME Ensemble Forecasting - A Primer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pizzo, V. J.; de Koning, C. A.; Cash, M. D.; Millward, G. H.; Biesecker, D. A.; Codrescu, M.; Puga, L.; Odstrcil, D.

    2014-12-01

    SWPC has been evaluating various approaches for ensemble forecasting of Earth-directed CMEs. We have developed the software infrastructure needed to support broad-ranging CME ensemble modeling, including composing, interpreting, and making intelligent use of ensemble simulations. The first step is to determine whether the physics of the interplanetary propagation of CMEs is better described as chaotic (like terrestrial weather) or deterministic (as in tsunami propagation). This is important, since different ensemble strategies are to be pursued under the two scenarios. We present the findings of a comprehensive study of CME ensembles in uniform and structured backgrounds that reveals systematic relationships between input cone parameters and ambient flow states and resulting transit times and velocity/density amplitudes at Earth. These results clearly indicate that the propagation of single CMEs to 1 AU is a deterministic process. Thus, the accuracy with which one can forecast the gross properties (such as arrival time) of CMEs at 1 AU is determined primarily by the accuracy of the inputs. This is no tautology - it means specifically that efforts to improve forecast accuracy should focus upon obtaining better inputs, as opposed to developing better propagation models. In a companion paper (deKoning et al., this conference), we compare in situ solar wind data with forecast events in the SWPC operational archive to show how the qualitative and quantitative findings presented here are entirely consistent with the observations and may lead to improved forecasts of arrival time at Earth.

  4. Quantile forecast discrimination ability and value

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ben Bouallègue, Zied; Pinson, Pierre; Friederichs, Petra

    2015-01-01

    While probabilistic forecast verification for categorical forecasts is well established, some of the existing concepts and methods have not found their equivalent for the case of continuous variables. New tools dedicated to the assessment of forecast discrimination ability and forecast value......-based discrimination tool and the quantile value plot translates forecast discrimination ability in terms of economic value. The relationship between the overall value of a quantile forecast and the respective quantile skill score is also discussed. The application of these new verification approaches and tools...

  5. Investigation on features and tendencies of axle-box heating

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olegas LUNYS

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Breakdown of rolling stock axle-boxes if not detected in due time may cause a rail accident or disaster. At present, a lot of advanced technologies, modern equipment and devices, which “recognizes” faulty axle-boxes when the train is in motion, have been implemented. However, the timely identification of breakdown of rolling stock axle-boxes still is an acute problem, the initial stage of damage emergence being especially problematic. Presently, rolling stock axle-box breakdown is determined according to the higher than permissible temperature of the axle-box body. The article provides statistical data of dangerously heated axle-boxes, determined train delay durations, the number of delayed trains by danger level, and dependence of damage on the season. After systematization of data on axle-box damage and heating temperatures of broken axle-boxes, heating tendencies of axle-boxes of freight wagons are described. Finally, basic conclusions are given.

  6. Image-Based Learning Approach Applied to Time Series Forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. C. Chimal-Eguía

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, a new learning approach based on time-series image information is presented. In order to implementthis new learning technique, a novel time-series input data representation is also defined. This input datarepresentation is based on information obtained by image axis division into boxes. The difference between this newinput data representation and the classical is that this technique is not time-dependent. This new information isimplemented in the new Image-Based Learning Approach (IBLA and by means of a probabilistic mechanism thislearning technique is applied to the interesting problem of time series forecasting. The experimental results indicatethat by using the methodology proposed in this article, it is possible to obtain better results than with the classicaltechniques such as artificial neuronal networks and support vector machines.

  7. Forecasts: uncertain, inaccurate and biased?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nicolaisen, Morten Skou; Ambrasaite, Inga; Salling, Kim Bang

    2012-01-01

    Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA) is the dominating methodology for appraisal of transport infrastructure projects across the globe. In order to adequately assess the costs and benefits of such projects two types of forecasts are crucial to the validity of the appraisal. First are the forecasts...... accuracy of project benefits. This paper presents results from an on-going research project on uncertainties in transport project evaluation (UNITE) that find forecasts of demand to be not only uncertain, but at times also highly inaccurate and often displaying a concerning degree of bias. Demand for road...... projects appear to be systematically underestimated, while demand for rail projects appears to be systematically overestimated. We compare the findings in the present study with those of previous studies and discuss the implications for the validity of project appraisal in the form of CBA...

  8. Forecast Combination under Heavy-Tailed Errors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gang Cheng

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Forecast combination has been proven to be a very important technique to obtain accurate predictions for various applications in economics, finance, marketing and many other areas. In many applications, forecast errors exhibit heavy-tailed behaviors for various reasons. Unfortunately, to our knowledge, little has been done to obtain reliable forecast combinations for such situations. The familiar forecast combination methods, such as simple average, least squares regression or those based on the variance-covariance of the forecasts, may perform very poorly due to the fact that outliers tend to occur, and they make these methods have unstable weights, leading to un-robust forecasts. To address this problem, in this paper, we propose two nonparametric forecast combination methods. One is specially proposed for the situations in which the forecast errors are strongly believed to have heavy tails that can be modeled by a scaled Student’s t-distribution; the other is designed for relatively more general situations when there is a lack of strong or consistent evidence on the tail behaviors of the forecast errors due to a shortage of data and/or an evolving data-generating process. Adaptive risk bounds of both methods are developed. They show that the resulting combined forecasts yield near optimal mean forecast errors relative to the candidate forecasts. Simulations and a real example demonstrate their superior performance in that they indeed tend to have significantly smaller prediction errors than the previous combination methods in the presence of forecast outliers.

  9. Acquisition forecast: Fiscal year 1995

    Science.gov (United States)

    1995-01-01

    This volume includes projections of all anticipated FY95, and beyond, NASA contract actions above $25,000 that small and small disadvantaged businesses may be able to perform under direct contract with the government or as subcontractors. The forecast consolidates anticipated procurements at each NASA center into an agencywide report, with the aim of increasing industries' advance knowledge of NASA requirements and enhancing competition in contracting. Each center forecast report is divided into three principal categories of procurement: research and development, services, and supplies and equipment.

  10. RELIABILITY BASED DESIGN OF A GEAR BOX

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D.MADHUSEKHAR

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Reliability is the probability that a system, component or device will perform without failure for a specified period of time under specified operating conditions. The concept of reliability is of great importance in the design of various machine members. Conventional engineering design uses a deterministic approach. It disregards the fact that the material properties, the dimensions of the components and the externally applied loads are statistical in nature. In conventional design this uncertainties are covered with a factor of safety, which is not always successful. The growing trend towards reducing uncertainty and increasing reliability is to use the probabilistic approach. In the present work a three shaft four speed gear box and six speed gear box are designed using reliability principles. For the specified reliability of the system (Gear box, component reliability (Gear pair is calculated by considering the system as a series system. Design is considered to be safe and adequate if the probability of failure of gear box is less than or equal to a specified quantity in each of the two failure modes. . All the parameters affecting the design are considered as random variables and all the random variables are assumed to follow normal distribution. A computer program in C++ is developed to calculate the face widths in bending and surface failure modes. The larger one out of the two values is considered. By changing the variations in the design parameters, variations in the face widths are studied.

  11. Argon purge gas cooled by chill box

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spiro, L. W.

    1966-01-01

    Cooling argon purge gas by routing it through a shop-fabricated chill box reduces charring of tungsten inert gas torch head components. The argon gas is in a cooled state as it enters the torch and prevents buildup of char caused by the high concentrations of heat in the weld area during welding operations.

  12. Box of Ideal Gas in Free Fall

    CERN Document Server

    Kothawala, Dawood

    2011-01-01

    We study the quantum partition function of non-relativistic, ideal gas in a (non-cubical) box falling freely in arbitrary curved spacetime with centre 4-velocity u^a. Using perturbed energy eigenvalues to evaluate the canonical partition function, we find that corrections to various thermodynamic quantities such as mean energy, entropy and specific heat include a very specific, sub-dominant term characterized by the dimensionless quantity, X = R_00 q^2, where R_00 = R_ab u^a u^b and q = \\beta \\hbar c. This X-contribution does not depend on kinematic details of the system such as box dimensions and mass of particles, and in particular leads to S_X = (1/2) \\beta U_X (see text), a relation familiar from black hole thermodynamics. What is curious is that our result depends crucially on quantum mechanics since, in effect, the gas is allowed to "feel" the presence of the box through use of unperturbed wave function satisfying appropriate boundary conditions at the box walls. This is the feature which a classical an...

  13. Using Story Boxes in Language Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collins, Rita

    2009-01-01

    Story boxes and story bags are containers for holding realia that are used to enhance reading and provide a variety of activities for encouraging language acquisition and use. Whatever the packaging, these are good ways to develop students' interest in books. Using realia, or real-life objects, to teach a foreign language is not a novel concept.…

  14. Study of WATCH GRB error boxes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gorosabel, J.; Castro-Tirado, A. J.; Lund, Niels;

    1995-01-01

    We have studied the first WATCH GRB Catalogue ofγ-ray Bursts in order to find correlations between WATCH GRB error boxes and a great variety of celestial objects present in 33 different catalogues. No particular class of objects has been found to be significantly correlated with the WATCH GRBs....

  15. One-dimensional oscillator in a box

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Amore, Paolo [Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad de Colima, Bernal DIaz del Castillo 340, Colima, Colima (Mexico); Fernandez, Francisco M [INIFTA (UNLP, CCT La Plata-CONICET), Division Quimica Teorica, Blvd 113 S/N, Sucursal 4, Casilla de Correo 16, 1900 La Plata (Argentina)], E-mail: paolo@ucol.mx, E-mail: fernande@quimica.unlp.edu.ar

    2010-01-15

    We discuss a quantum-mechanical model of two particles that interact by means of a harmonic potential and are confined to a one-dimensional box with impenetrable walls. We apply perturbation theory to the cases of different and equal masses and analyse the symmetry of the states in the latter case. We compare the approximate perturbation results with accurate numerical ones.

  16. Fast box-counting algorithm on GPU.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiménez, J; Ruiz de Miras, J

    2012-12-01

    The box-counting algorithm is one of the most widely used methods for calculating the fractal dimension (FD). The FD has many image analysis applications in the biomedical field, where it has been used extensively to characterize a wide range of medical signals. However, computing the FD for large images, especially in 3D, is a time consuming process. In this paper we present a fast parallel version of the box-counting algorithm, which has been coded in CUDA for execution on the Graphic Processing Unit (GPU). The optimized GPU implementation achieved an average speedup of 28 times (28×) compared to a mono-threaded CPU implementation, and an average speedup of 7 times (7×) compared to a multi-threaded CPU implementation. The performance of our improved box-counting algorithm has been tested with 3D models with different complexity, features and sizes. The validity and accuracy of the algorithm has been confirmed using models with well-known FD values. As a case study, a 3D FD analysis of several brain tissues has been performed using our GPU box-counting algorithm.

  17. A white box perspective on behavioural adaptation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bruni, Roberto; Corradini, Andrea; Gadducci, Fabio;

    2015-01-01

    We present a white-box conceptual framework for adaptation developed in the context of the EU Project ASCENS coordinated by Martin Wirsing. We called it CoDA, for Control Data Adaptation, since it is based on the notion of control data. CoDA promotes a neat separation between application and adap...

  18. Hazard Analysis of Japanese Boxed Lunches (Bento).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bryan, Frank L.; And Others

    1991-01-01

    For the purposes of identifying contaminants, of assessing risks, and of determining critical food processing control points, hazard analyses were conducted at two "bento" (oriental boxed meals) catering operations. Time and temperature abuses during the holding period, after cooking and prior to consumption, were found to be the primary…

  19. Covering Points by Disjoint Boxes with Outliers

    CERN Document Server

    Ahn, Hee-Kap; Demaine, Erik D; Demaine, Martin L; Kim, Sang-Sub; Korman, Matias; Reinbacher, Iris; Son, Wanbin

    2009-01-01

    For a set of n points in the plane, we consider the axis--aligned (p,k)-Box Covering problem: Find p axis-aligned, pairwise-disjoint boxes that together contain n-k points. In this paper, we consider the boxes to be either squares or rectangles, and we want to minimize the area of the largest box. For general p we show that the problem is NP-hard for both squares and rectangles. For a small, fixed number p, we give algorithms that find the solution in the following running times: For squares we have O(n+k log k) time for p=1, and O(n log n+k^p log^p k time for p = 2,3. For rectangles we get O(n + k^3) for p = 1 and O(n log n+k^{2+p} log^{p-1} k) time for p = 2,3. In all cases, our algorithms use O(n) space.

  20. Cereal Box Design: An Interdisciplinary Graphics Activity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fitzgerald, Mike; Tsosie, Teri

    2012-01-01

    The cereal box design activity is intriguing both for its simplicity and the resourcefulness that it can generate in young people. Also, it lends itself to a variety of curriculums. It covers both consumerism and Design for the Environment (DfE) concepts broadly and in depth. The activity introduces a wide range of topics. They include graphic…

  1. Global Forecast System (GFS) [1 Deg.

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Global Forecast System (GFS) is a weather forecast model produced by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). Dozens of atmospheric and...

  2. Quantile forecast discrimination ability and value

    CERN Document Server

    Bouallegue, Zied Ben; Friederichs, Petra

    2015-01-01

    While probabilistic forecast verification for categorical forecasts is well established, some of the existing concepts and methods have not found their equivalent for the case of continuous variables. New tools dedicated to the assessment of forecast discrimination ability and forecast value are introduced here, based on quantile forecasts being the base product for the continuous case (hence in a nonparametric framework). The relative user characteristic (RUC) curve and the quantile value plot allow analysing the performance of a forecast for a specific user in a decision-making framework. The RUC curve is designed as a user-based discrimination tool and the quantile value plot translates forecast discrimination ability in terms of economic value. The relationship between the overall value of a quantile forecast and the respective quantile skill score is also discussed. The application of these new verification approaches and tools is illustrated based on synthetic datasets, as well as for the case of global...

  3. WPC's Short Range Forecast Coded Bulletin

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Short Range Forecast Coded Bulletin. The Short Range Forecast Coded Bulletin describes the expected locations of high and low pressure centers, surface frontal...

  4. Accuracy of forecasts in strategic intelligence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mandel, David R; Barnes, Alan

    2014-07-29

    The accuracy of 1,514 strategic intelligence forecasts abstracted from intelligence reports was assessed. The results show that both discrimination and calibration of forecasts was very good. Discrimination was better for senior (versus junior) analysts and for easier (versus harder) forecasts. Miscalibration was mainly due to underconfidence such that analysts assigned more uncertainty than needed given their high level of discrimination. Underconfidence was more pronounced for harder (versus easier) forecasts and for forecasts deemed more (versus less) important for policy decision making. Despite the observed underconfidence, there was a paucity of forecasts in the least informative 0.4-0.6 probability range. Recalibrating the forecasts substantially reduced underconfidence. The findings offer cause for tempered optimism about the accuracy of strategic intelligence forecasts and indicate that intelligence producers aim to promote informativeness while avoiding overstatement.

  5. box modeling of the eastern mediterranean sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ashkenazy, Y.; Stone, P. H.

    2003-04-01

    Recently (~1990) a new source of deep water formation in the Eastern Mediterranean was found in the southern part of the Aegean sea. Till then, the only source of deep water formation in the Eastern Mediterranean was in the Adriatic sea; the rate of the deep water formation of the new Aegean source is 1Sv=10^6m^3/s, three times larger then the Adriatic source. We develop a simple 3 box-model to study the stability of the thermohaline circulation of the Eastern Mediterranean sea. The 3 boxes represent the Adriatic sea, Aegean sea, and the Ionian sea. The boxes exchange heat and salinity and may be described by a set of nonlinear differential equations. We analytically analyze these equations and find that the system may have one, two, or four stable flux states. We consider two cases for which the temperatures of the boxes are (i) fixed or (ii) variable. After setting the parameters to correspond to the Eastern Mediterranean we find that the system has two stable states, one with (i) two thermally dominant sources of deep water formation in the Adriatic and Aegean and the other with (ii) a salinity dominant source of deep water formation in the Adriatic and a thermally dominant source in the Aegean. While the Adriatic thermally dominant source is comparable to the observed flux of 0.3Sv the Aegean source has much smaller flux than the observed value. This situation is analogous to the state of the thermohaline circulation pre 1990 where the only source of deep water formation was in the Adriatic. If we decrease the atmospheric temperature of the Aegean box by 2C in accordance with recent observations, we find that the deep water formation of the Aegean increases significantly to a value comparable to the recently observed flux.

  6. Forecasting Consumer Adoption of Information Technology and Services--Lessons from Home Video Forecasting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klopfenstein, Bruce C.

    1989-01-01

    Describes research that examined the strengths and weaknesses of technological forecasting methods by analyzing forecasting studies made for home video players. The discussion covers assessments and explications of correct and incorrect forecasting assumptions, and their implications for forecasting the adoption of home information technologies…

  7. A Delphi forecast of technology in education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robinson, B. E.

    1973-01-01

    The results are reported of a Delphi forecast of the utilization and social impacts of large-scale educational telecommunications technology. The focus is on both forecasting methodology and educational technology. The various methods of forecasting used by futurists are analyzed from the perspective of the most appropriate method for a prognosticator of educational technology, and review and critical analysis are presented of previous forecasts and studies. Graphic responses, summarized comments, and a scenario of education in 1990 are presented.

  8. Improved Forecasting Methods for Naval Manpower Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-03-25

    accuracy. Exogenous events or structural breaks in time - series data can result in large forecasting errors. Using the Bai-Perron (BP) test, we...accuracy. Exogenous events or structural breaks in time - series data can result in large forecasting errors. Using the Bai-Perron (BP) test, we...structural changes on forecast accuracy. Exogenous events or structural breaks in time - series data can result in large forecasting errors. Using

  9. Intermittent demand : Linking forecasting to inventory obsolescence

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Teunter, Ruud H.; Syntetos, Aris A.; Babai, M. Zied

    2011-01-01

    The standard method to forecast intermittent demand is that by Croston. This method is available in ERP-type solutions such as SAP and specialised forecasting software packages (e.g. Forecast Pro), and often applied in practice. It uses exponential smoothing to separately update the estimated demand

  10. Beat the Instructor: An Introductory Forecasting Game

    Science.gov (United States)

    Snider, Brent R.; Eliasson, Janice B.

    2013-01-01

    This teaching brief describes a 30-minute game where student groups compete in-class in an introductory time-series forecasting exercise. The students are challenged to "beat the instructor" who competes using forecasting techniques that will be subsequently taught. All forecasts are graphed prior to revealing the randomly generated…

  11. Forecasting Financial Time-Series using Artificial Market Models

    CERN Document Server

    Gupta, N; Johnson, N F; Gupta, Nachi; Hauser, Raphael; Johnson, Neil F.

    2005-01-01

    We discuss the theoretical machinery involved in predicting financial market movements using an artificial market model which has been trained on real financial data. This approach to market prediction - in particular, forecasting financial time-series by training a third-party or 'black box' game on the financial data itself -- was discussed by Johnson et al. in cond-mat/0105303 and cond-mat/0105258 and was based on some encouraging preliminary investigations of the dollar-yen exchange rate, various individual stocks, and stock market indices. However, the initial attempts lacked a clear formal methodology. Here we present a detailed methodology, using optimization techniques to build an estimate of the strategy distribution across the multi-trader population. In contrast to earlier attempts, we are able to present a systematic method for identifying 'pockets of predictability' in real-world markets. We find that as each pocket closes up, the black-box system needs to be 'reset' - which is equivalent to sayi...

  12. Wavelet-based Evapotranspiration Forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bachour, R.; Maslova, I.; Ticlavilca, A. M.; McKee, M.; Walker, W.

    2012-12-01

    Providing a reliable short-term forecast of evapotranspiration (ET) could be a valuable element for improving the efficiency of irrigation water delivery systems. In the last decade, wavelet transform has become a useful technique for analyzing the frequency domain of hydrological time series. This study shows how wavelet transform can be used to access statistical properties of evapotranspiration. The objective of the research reported here is to use wavelet-based techniques to forecast ET up to 16 days ahead, which corresponds to the LANDSAT 7 overpass cycle. The properties of the ET time series, both physical and statistical, are examined in the time and frequency domains. We use the information about the energy decomposition in the wavelet domain to extract meaningful components that are used as inputs for ET forecasting models. Seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) and multivariate relevance vector machine (MVRVM) models are coupled with the wavelet-based multiresolution analysis (MRA) results and used to generate short-term ET forecasts. Accuracy of the models is estimated and model robustness is evaluated using the bootstrap approach.

  13. Valuing information from mesoscale forecasts

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kok, K.; Wichers Schreur, B.G.J.; Vogelenzang, D.

    2008-01-01

    The development of meso-gamma scale numerical weather prediction (NWP) models requires a substantial investment in research, development and computational resources. Traditional objective verification of deterministic model output fails to demonstrate the added value of high-resolution forecasts mad

  14. Forecasting for strengthening technological development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aida Mayerly Fúquene Montañez

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available Producing technological innovation is currently one of the key items in being more competitive. However, production sectors are facing great challenges, including analysing a large amount of available technological and market information regarding the en- vironment for strategic decision-making and being able to launch themselves onto the market with technological developments bringing the desired economic returns. Several tools for analysing information have emerged for reducing the uncertainty of tech- nological and market changes. This article provides conceptual and reflective elements so that forecasting strengthens technolo- gical development (TD. Forecasting is initially proposed as being one of the future methods of analysis having a significant im- pact on decision-making, mainly within the field of economics but which could be extrapolated to making a contribution to TD. The techniques which have been the recent instrument for collecting information for producing forecasting are described, as is work about the concept of surveillance/monitoring and the processes used for coordinating such approaches. It can thus be sta- ted that they provide an excellent basis for strengthening TD by providing platforms for new or improved developments in pro- cesses or products. Reflection about these aspects provides perspectives for implementing technological forecasting (TF in pro- duction systems so that they obtain efficient and concrete results via deterministic methods as input in decision-making in techno- logy regarding its middle- and long-term competitiveness.

  15. Volcanic forcing in decadal forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ménégoz, Martin; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco; Guemas, Virginie; Asif, Muhammad; Prodhomme, chloe

    2016-04-01

    Volcanic eruptions can significantly impact the climate system, by injecting large amounts of particles into the stratosphere. By reflecting backward the solar radiation, these particles cool the troposphere, and by absorbing the longwave radiation, they warm the stratosphere. As a consequence of this radiative forcing, the global mean surface temperature can decrease by several tenths of degrees. However, large eruptions are also associated to a complex dynamical response of the climate system that is particularly tricky do understand regarding the low number of available observations. Observations seem to show an increase of the positive phases of the Northern Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) the two winters following large eruptions, associated to positive temperature anomalies over the Eurasian continent. The summers following large eruptions are generally particularly cold, especially over the continents of the Northern Hemisphere. Overall, it is really challenging to forecast the climate response to large eruptions, as it is both modulated by, and superimposed to the climate background conditions, largely driven themselves by internal variability at seasonal to decadal scales. This work describes the additional skill of a forecast system used for seasonal and decadal predictions when it includes observed volcanic forcing over the last decades. An idealized volcanic forcing that could be used for real-time forecasts is also evaluated. This work consists in a base for forecasts that will be performed in the context of the next large volcanic eruption.

  16. FORECASTING NEED IN ORGANIZATION ACTIVITY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luminiţa Danciu

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Inside a company activity planning is made according to estimates. This means that estimates are very important. If estimates are wrong the company's activity will be on the wrong way. In the management zone in order to focus on general objectives achievement there are used estimates and forecasting methods.

  17. Severe Weather Forecast Decision Aid

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bauman, William H., III; Wheeler, Mark M.; Short, David A.

    2005-01-01

    This report presents a 15-year climatological study of severe weather events and related severe weather atmospheric parameters. Data sources included local forecast rules, archived sounding data, Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Surveillance System (CGLSS) data, surface and upper air maps, and two severe weather event databases covering east-central Florida. The local forecast rules were used to set threat assessment thresholds for stability parameters that were derived from the sounding data. The severe weather events databases were used to identify days with reported severe weather and the CGLSS data was used to differentiate between lightning and non-lightning days. These data sets provided the foundation for analyzing the stability parameters and synoptic patterns that were used to develop an objective tool to aid in forecasting severe weather events. The period of record for the analysis was May - September, 1989 - 2003. The results indicate that there are certain synoptic patterns more prevalent on days with severe weather and some of the stability parameters are better predictors of severe weather days based on locally tuned threat values. The results also revealed the stability parameters that did not display any skill related to severe weather days. An interactive web-based Severe Weather Decision Aid was developed to assist the duty forecaster by providing a level of objective guidance based on the analysis of the stability parameters, CGLSS data, and synoptic-scale dynamics. The tool will be tested and evaluated during the 2005 warm season.

  18. Forecasting Interest Rates and Inflation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chun, Albert Lee

    the best overall for short horizon forecasts of short to medium term yields and inflation. Econometric models with shrinkage perform the best over longer horizons and maturities. Aggregating over a larger set of analysts improves inflation surveys while generally degrading interest rates surveys. We...

  19. Understanding and Forecasting Ethnolinguistic Vitality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karan, Mark E.

    2011-01-01

    Forecasting of ethnolinguistic vitality can only be done within a well-functioning descriptive and explanatory model of the dynamics of language stability and shift. It is proposed that the Perceived Benefit Model of Language Shift, used with a taxonomy of language shift motivations, provides that model. The model, based on individual language…

  20. Neural Network based Consumption Forecasting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Per Printz

    2016-01-01

    This paper describe a Neural Network based method for consumption forecasting. This work has been financed by the The ENCOURAGE project. The aims of The ENCOURAGE project is to develop embedded intelligence and integration technologies that will directly optimize energy use in buildings and enable...

  1. Forecasting the space weather impact

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Crosby, N. B.; Veronig, A.; Robbrecht, E.;

    2012-01-01

    The FP7 COronal Mass Ejections and Solar Energetic Particles (COMESEP) project is developing tools for forecasting geomagnetic storms and solar energetic particle (SEP) radiation storms. By analysis of historical data, complemented by the extensive data coverage of solar cycle 23, the key ingredi...

  2. In Brief: Forecasting meningitis threats

    Science.gov (United States)

    Showstack, Randy

    2008-12-01

    The University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR), in conjunction with a team of health and weather organizations, has launched a project to provide weather forecasts to medical officials in Africa to help reduce outbreaks of meningitis. The forecasts will enable local health care providers to target vaccination programs more effectively. In 2009, meteorologists with the National Center for Atmospheric Research, which is managed by UCAR, will begin issuing 14-day forecasts of atmospheric conditions in Ghana. Later, UCAR plans to work closely with health experts from several African countries to design and test a decision support system to provide health officials with useful meteorological information. ``By targeting forecasts in regions where meningitis is a threat, we may be able to help vulnerable populations. Ultimately, we hope to build on this project and provide information to public health programs battling weather-related diseases in other parts of the world,'' said Rajul Pandya, director of UCAR's Community Building Program. Funding for the project comes from a $900,000 grant from Google.org, the philanthropic arm of the Internet search company.

  3. A Wind Forecasting System for Energy Application

    Science.gov (United States)

    Courtney, Jennifer; Lynch, Peter; Sweeney, Conor

    2010-05-01

    Accurate forecasting of available energy is crucial for the efficient management and use of wind power in the national power grid. With energy output critically dependent upon wind strength there is a need to reduce the errors associated wind forecasting. The objective of this research is to get the best possible wind forecasts for the wind energy industry. To achieve this goal, three methods are being applied. First, a mesoscale numerical weather prediction (NWP) model called WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) is being used to predict wind values over Ireland. Currently, a gird resolution of 10km is used and higher model resolutions are being evaluated to establish whether they are economically viable given the forecast skill improvement they produce. Second, the WRF model is being used in conjunction with ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) ensemble forecasts to produce a probabilistic weather forecasting product. Due to the chaotic nature of the atmosphere, a single, deterministic weather forecast can only have limited skill. The ECMWF ensemble methods produce an ensemble of 51 global forecasts, twice a day, by perturbing initial conditions of a 'control' forecast which is the best estimate of the initial state of the atmosphere. This method provides an indication of the reliability of the forecast and a quantitative basis for probabilistic forecasting. The limitation of ensemble forecasting lies in the fact that the perturbed model runs behave differently under different weather patterns and each model run is equally likely to be closest to the observed weather situation. Models have biases, and involve assumptions about physical processes and forcing factors such as underlying topography. Third, Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) is being applied to the output from the ensemble forecasts in order to statistically post-process the results and achieve a better wind forecasting system. BMA is a promising technique that will offer calibrated

  4. Artificial 'Voice Box' Implant Helps Cancer Patient Speak

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... https://medlineplus.gov/news/fullstory_162873.html Artificial 'Voice Box' Implant Helps Cancer Patient Speak New device ... WEDNESDAY, Jan. 4, 2017 (HealthDay News) -- An artificial "voice box" has provided long-term relief for a ...

  5. Conceptual design and optimization methodology for box wing aircraft

    OpenAIRE

    Jemitola, Paul Olugbeji

    2012-01-01

    A conceptual design optimization methodology was developed for a medium range box wing aircraft. A baseline conventional cantilever wing aircraft designed for the same mis- sion and payload was also optimized alongside a baseline box wing aircraft. An empirical formula for the mass estimation of the fore and aft wings of the box wing aircraft was derived by relating conventional cantilever wings to box wing aircraft wings. The results indicate that the fore and aft wings would ...

  6. Application of Defense Technology Commonly Used in Boxing Match

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Zhixiao Li[1; Jianjun Liu[2

    2015-01-01

    Boxing defense technology is a kind of techniques to prevent the opponent from attacking successfully. Boxing is a kind of sports that needs close cooperation between attack and defense. Attack is used for defense, where there is no attack, there will be no defense, and vice versa. Defense technology is the foundation of attack technology, therefore, defense is of vital importance in boxing match.

  7. Clocks, Cameras, and Chatter, Chatter, Chatter: Activity Boxes as Curriculum.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suskind, Diane; Kittel, Jeanie

    1989-01-01

    Describes activity boxes which can be used in early childhood classrooms to further curriculum and development goals. Activity boxes are containers filled with related objects categorized by color, shape, or material which encourage children to explore, sort, and manipulate real things. Discusses goals and lists contents for 24 activity boxes.…

  8. Using Origami Boxes to Explore Concepts of Geometry and Calculus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wares, Arsalan

    2011-01-01

    The purpose of this classroom note is to provide an example of how a simple origami box can be used to explore important concepts of geometry and calculus. This article describes how an origami box can be folded, then it goes on to describe how its volume and surface area can be calculated. Finally, it describes how the box could be folded to…

  9. 47 CFR 90.241 - Radio call box operations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... remains on for a period in excess of three minutes. The automatic cutoff system must be designed so the... Safety Pool for highway call box systems subject to the following requirements: (1) Call box transmitters... effective radiated power (ERP). (3) The height of a call box antenna may not exceed 6.1 meters (20...

  10. 49 CFR 230.102 - Tender plain bearing journal boxes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Tender plain bearing journal boxes. 230.102... Locomotives and Tenders Running Gear § 230.102 Tender plain bearing journal boxes. Plain bearing journal boxes... expected to damage the bearing; or have a detrimental effect on the lubrication of the journal and...

  11. 49 CFR 230.103 - Tender roller bearing journal boxes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Tender roller bearing journal boxes. 230.103... Locomotives and Tenders Running Gear § 230.103 Tender roller bearing journal boxes. Tender roller bearing journal boxes shall be maintained in a safe and suitable condition....

  12. Accuracy Analysis of a Box-wing Theoretical SRP Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Xiaoya; Hu, Xiaogong; Zhao, Qunhe; Guo, Rui

    2016-07-01

    For Beidou satellite navigation system (BDS) a high accuracy SRP model is necessary for high precise applications especially with Global BDS establishment in future. The BDS accuracy for broadcast ephemeris need be improved. So, a box-wing theoretical SRP model with fine structure and adding conical shadow factor of earth and moon were established. We verified this SRP model by the GPS Block IIF satellites. The calculation was done with the data of PRN 1, 24, 25, 27 satellites. The results show that the physical SRP model for POD and forecast for GPS IIF satellite has higher accuracy with respect to Bern empirical model. The 3D-RMS of orbit is about 20 centimeters. The POD accuracy for both models is similar but the prediction accuracy with the physical SRP model is more than doubled. We tested 1-day 3-day and 7-day orbit prediction. The longer is the prediction arc length, the more significant is the improvement. The orbit prediction accuracy with the physical SRP model for 1-day, 3-day and 7-day arc length are 0.4m, 2.0m, 10.0m respectively. But they are 0.9m, 5.5m and 30m with Bern empirical model respectively. We apply this means to the BDS and give out a SRP model for Beidou satellites. Then we test and verify the model with Beidou data of one month only for test. Initial results show the model is good but needs more data for verification and improvement. The orbit residual RMS is similar to that with our empirical force model which only estimate the force for along track, across track direction and y-bias. But the orbit overlap and SLR observation evaluation show some improvement. The remaining empirical force is reduced significantly for present Beidou constellation.

  13. Online load forecasting for supermarket refrigeration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bacher, Peder; Madsen, Henrik; Nielsen, Henrik Aalborg

    2013-01-01

    in Denmark. Every hour the hourly load for refrigeration for the following 42 hours is forecasted. The forecast models are time adaptive linear time-series models. The dynamic relations between the inputs and the load is modeled by simple transfer functions. The system operates in two regimes: one......This paper presents a study of models for forecasting the load for supermarket refrigeration. The data used for building the forecasting models consists of load measurements, local climate measurements and weather forecasts. The load measurements are from a supermarket located in a village...

  14. Forecast Collaboration in Grocery Supply Chains

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aastrup, Jesper; Gammelgaard, Britta

    -requisites, degree of forecast collaboration, demand related contingency factors and outcomes/KPIs based. The hypotheses are tested in a survey among Danish grocery suppliers. The survey findings provide evidence of a positive effect of collaborative orientation and retailer competencies and trustworthiness...... on the degress of forecast collaboration. Also, campaign frequency as a demand related contingency variable is found to positively affect degree of forecast collaboration. Finally, the survey findings provide evidence of a positive effect of degree of forecast collaboration on inventory levels and forecast...

  15. Forecasting Covariance Matrices: A Mixed Frequency Approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Halbleib, Roxana; Voev, Valeri

    This paper proposes a new method for forecasting covariance matrices of financial returns. The model mixes volatility forecasts from a dynamic model of daily realized volatilities estimated with high-frequency data with correlation forecasts based on daily data. This new approach allows...... for flexible dependence patterns for volatilities and correlations, and can be applied to covariance matrices of large dimensions. The separate modeling of volatility and correlation forecasts considerably reduces the estimation and measurement error implied by the joint estimation and modeling of covariance...... matrix dynamics. Our empirical results show that the new mixing approach provides superior forecasts compared to multivariate volatility specifications using single sources of information....

  16. Fast adaptive elliptical filtering using box splines

    CERN Document Server

    Chaudhury, Kunal Narayan; Unser, Michael

    2009-01-01

    We demonstrate that it is possible to filter an image with an elliptic window of varying size, elongation and orientation with a fixed computational cost per pixel. Our method involves the application of a suitable global pre-integrator followed by a pointwise-adaptive localization mesh. We present the basic theory for the 1D case using a B-spline formalism and then appropriately extend it to 2D using radially-uniform box splines. The size and ellipticity of these radially-uniform box splines is adaptively controlled. Moreover, they converge to Gaussians as the order increases. Finally, we present a fast and practical directional filtering algorithm that has the capability of adapting to the local image features.

  17. Box of ideal gas in free fall

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kothawala, Dawood, E-mail: dawood@physics.iitm.ac.in [Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of New Brunswick, Fredericton, NB, E3B 5A3 (Canada)

    2013-03-26

    We study the quantum partition function of non-relativistic, ideal gas in a (non-cubical) box falling freely in arbitrary curved spacetime with center 4-velocity u{sup a}. When perturbed energy eigenvalues are properly taken into account, we find that corrections to various thermodynamic quantities include a very specific, sub-dominant term which is independent of kinematic details such as box dimensions and mass of particles. This term is characterized by the dimensionless quantity, Ξ=R{sub 0{sup ^}0{sup ^}}Λ{sup 2}, where R{sub 0{sup ^}0{sup ^}}=R{sub ab}u{sup a}u{sup b} and Λ=βℏc, and, quite intriguingly, produces Euler relation of homogeneity two between entropy and energy – a relation familiar from black hole thermodynamics.

  18. Choreographies with Secure Boxes and Compromised Principals

    CERN Document Server

    Carbone, Marco; 10.4204/EPTCS.12.1

    2009-01-01

    We equip choreography-level session descriptions with a simple abstraction of a security infrastructure. Message components may be enclosed within (possibly nested) "boxes" annotated with the intended source and destination of those components. The boxes are to be implemented with cryptography. Strand spaces provide a semantics for these choreographies, in which some roles may be played by compromised principals. A skeleton is a partially ordered structure containing local behaviors (strands) executed by regular (non-compromised) principals. A skeleton is realized if it contains enough regular strands so that it could actually occur, in combination with any possible activity of compromised principals. It is delivery guaranteed (DG) realized if, in addition, every message transmitted to a regular participant is also delivered. We define a novel transition system on skeletons, in which the steps add regular strands. These steps solve tests, i.e. parts of the skeleton that could not occur without additional regu...

  19. Grey Box Modelling of Hydrological Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thordarson, Fannar Ørn

    statistical methods. The simple models in these papers consider only part of the well field, but data analysis reveals that the wells in the well field are highly correlated. In the third paper, all wells pumping from the same aquifer are included in the state space formulation of the model, but instead...... equations, and a black box model, which relates to models that are obtained statistically from input-output relations. Grey box model consists of a system description, defined by a finite set of stochastic differential equations, and an observation equation. Together, system and observation equations...... in the model, or formulation of process noise can be considered so that it meets the physical limits of the hydrological system and give an adequate description of the embedded uncertainty in model structure. The thesis consists of two parts: a summary report and a part which contains six scientific papers...

  20. Fatal exit the automotive black box debate

    CERN Document Server

    Kowalick, Tom

    2005-01-01

    "Fatal Exit: The Automotive Black Box Debate cuts through thirty years of political wrangling and institutional biases to provide an argument for the Motor Vehicle Event Data Recorder (MVEDR). This automotive equivalent of an airplane's flight recorder or black box is intended to solve the mysteries of car crashes and improve the safety of our roads. The reader is taken inside the automotive industry and the government highway safety establishment to foster an understanding of the politics and the positions on all sides of this safety debate. The author takes an unbiased approach, chronologically presenting each argument and uncovering the agendas and mandates of each of the stakeholders." "This publication is essential reading for all consumers who need to have their voices heard on this critical issue, as well as for attorneys, public safety advocates, public policy administrators, engineers, automotive professionals, journalists, and insurance executives."--Jacket.

  1. The Central Nervous System of Box Jellyfish

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Garm, Anders Lydik; Ekström, Peter

    2008-01-01

    of behaviors in the box jellyfish such as obstacle avoidance and navigation. The need to process the visual information and turn it into the appropriate behavior puts strong demands on the nervous system of box jellyfish, which appears more elaborate than in other cnidarians. Here, the central part...... of this nervous system is described. Each rhopalium holds a separate part of the CNS with 1,000 nerve cells and a large amount of neuropil. The rhopalial nervous system has several subsystems defined by the anatomy, location, and immunocytochemistry of the cells. Most of the subsystems connect to one or more...... of the eye types, and it is likely that the rhopalial nervous system accounts for most of the visual processing. The major part of the CNS is made up of a ring nerve encircling the bell shaped body. The ring nerve holds around 10,000 cells and is directly connected to all four rhopalial nervous systems...

  2. Forecasting Monthly Prices of Japanese Logs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tetsuya Michinaka

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Forecasts of prices can help industries in their risk management. This is especially true for Japanese logs, which experience sharp fluctuations in price. In this research, the authors used an exponential smoothing method (ETS and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA models to forecast the monthly prices of domestic logs of three of the most important species in Japan: sugi (Japanese cedar, Cryptomeria japonica D. Don, hinoki (Japanese cypress, Chamaecyparis obtusa (Sieb. et Zucc. Endl., and karamatsu (Japanese larch, Larix kaempferi (Lamb. Carr.. For the 12-month forecasting periods, forecasting intervals of 80% and 95% were given. By measuring the accuracy of forecasts of 12- and 6-month forecasting periods, it was found that ARIMA gave better results than did the ETS in the majority of cases. However, the combined method of averaging ETS and ARIMA forecasts gave the best results for hinoki in several cases.

  3. Univariate time series forecasting algorithm validation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ismail, Suzilah; Zakaria, Rohaiza; Muda, Tuan Zalizam Tuan

    2014-12-01

    Forecasting is a complex process which requires expert tacit knowledge in producing accurate forecast values. This complexity contributes to the gaps between end users and expert. Automating this process by using algorithm can act as a bridge between them. Algorithm is a well-defined rule for solving a problem. In this study a univariate time series forecasting algorithm was developed in JAVA and validated using SPSS and Excel. Two set of simulated data (yearly and non-yearly); several univariate forecasting techniques (i.e. Moving Average, Decomposition, Exponential Smoothing, Time Series Regressions and ARIMA) and recent forecasting process (such as data partition, several error measures, recursive evaluation and etc.) were employed. Successfully, the results of the algorithm tally with the results of SPSS and Excel. This algorithm will not just benefit forecaster but also end users that lacking in depth knowledge of forecasting process.

  4. Novel grey forecast model and its application

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    丁洪发; 舒双焰; 段献忠

    2003-01-01

    The advancement of grey system theory provides an effective analytic tool for power system load fore-cast. All kinds of presently available grey forecast models can be well used to deal with the short-term load fore-cast. However, they make big errors for medium or long-term load forecasts, and the load that does not satisfythe approximate exponential increasing law in particular. A novel grey forecast model that is capable of distin-guishing the increasing law of load is adopted to forecast electric power consumption (EPC) of Shanghai. Theresults show that this model can be used to greatly improve the forecast precision of EPC for a secondary industryor the whole society.

  5. The gradient flow in a twisted box

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ramos, Alberto [Deutsches Elektronen-Synchrotron (DESY), Zeuthen (Germany). John von Neumann-Inst. fuer Computing NIC

    2013-08-15

    We study the perturbative behavior of the gradient flow in a twisted box. We apply this information to define a running coupling using the energy density of the flow field. We study the step-scaling function and the size of cutoff effects in SU(2) pure gauge theory. We conclude that the twisted gradient flow running coupling scheme is a valid strategy for step-scaling purposes due to the relatively mild cutoff effects and high precision.

  6. Masking a Compact AES S-box

    Science.gov (United States)

    2007-08-07

    Lecture Notes in Computer Science , pages 309–18, 2001. [2] D. Canright. A very compact S-box for AES. In CHES2005, volume 3659 of Lecture Notes in Computer Science , pages...et al., editor, CHES2003, volume 2779 of Lecture Notes in Computer Science , pages 319–333. Springer, 2003. [4] Jovan Dj. Golić and Christophe Tymen...Multiplicative masking and power analysis of AES. In CHES 2002, volume 2523 of Lecture

  7. PCB-Based Break-Out Box

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Jason H.

    2011-01-01

    Break-out boxes (BOBs) are necessary for all electrical integration/cable checkouts and troubleshooting. Because the price of a BOB is high, and no work can be done without one, often the procedure stops, simply waiting for a BOB. A less expensive BOB would take less time in the integration, testing, and troubleshooting process. The PCB-based BOB works and looks the same as a standard JPL BOB, called Gold Boxes. The only differences between the old BOB and the new PCB-based BOB is that the new one has 80 percent of its circuitry in a printed circuit board. This process reduces the time for fabrication, thus making the BOBs less expensive. Moreover, because of its unique design, the new BOBs can be easily assembled and fixed. About 80 percent of the new PCB-based BOB is in a $22 (at the time of this reporting) custom-designed, yet commercially available PCB. This device has been used successfully to verify that BOB cables were properly made. Also, upon completion, the BOB was beeped out via a multimeter to ensure that all sockets on the connectors were properly connected to the respective banana jack. When compared to the Gold Box BOBs, the new BOB has many advantages. It is much more cost efficient, it delivers equal usability at substantially lower cost of the BOB, and the Gold Box is much heavier when compared to the new BOB. The new BOB is also a bit longer and much more versatile in that connectors are easily changeable and if a banana jack is broken, it can be replaced instead of throwing away an entire BOB.

  8. Cardiovascular issues in boxing and contact sports.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siegel, Stephen A

    2009-10-01

    Despite the inherent risks associated with exercise in general and boxing in particular, the sport has had a limited number of catastrophic cardiovascular events. Screening should be based on risks involved and become more extensive with the advancement of the athlete. Anatomic and electrophysiologic risks need to be assessed and may preclude participation with resultant life style and economic complications. There should be adequate preparation for the rare potential cardiovascular complication at all events, with the ability to rapidly assess and treat arrhythmias.

  9. CHOSEN PROBLEMS OF FORECASTING SOCIAL PHENOMENA: FORECASTING, BACKCASTING, AND FORESIGHT

    OpenAIRE

    Donaj, Łukasz

    2012-01-01

    Forecasting social phenomena can in many ways be difficult. The reason is that it is the nature of these phenomena to be closely and multilaterally linked with physical, biological, and other social phenomena. Thus, making judgements about the future course of social phenomena, which, unlike physical phenomena based on “strong” science, are dependent on a large number of factors with varying degrees of stability is a complex task. The aim of the publication is an analysis of selected issues t...

  10. Adaptive Techniques to find Optimal Planar Boxes

    CERN Document Server

    Barbay, J; Pérez-Lantero, P

    2012-01-01

    Given a set $P$ of $n$ planar points, two axes and a real-valued score function $f()$ on subsets of $P$, the Optimal Planar Box problem consists in finding a box (i.e. axis-aligned rectangle) $H$ maximizing $f(H\\cap P)$. We consider the case where $f()$ is monotone decomposable, i.e. there exists a composition function $g()$ monotone in its two arguments such that $f(A)=g(f(A_1),f(A_2))$ for every subset $A\\subseteq P$ and every partition $\\{A_1,A_2\\}$ of $A$. In this context we propose a solution for the Optimal Planar Box problem which performs in the worst case $O(n^2\\lg n)$ score compositions and coordinate comparisons, and much less on other classes of instances defined by various measures of difficulty. A side result of its own interest is a fully dynamic \\textit{MCS Splay tree} data structure supporting insertions and deletions with the \\emph{dynamic finger} property, improving upon previous results [Cort\\'es et al., J.Alg. 2009].

  11. Environmental forecasting and turbulence modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hunt, J. C. R.

    This review describes the fundamental assumptions and current methodologies of the two main kinds of environmental forecast; the first is valid for a limited period of time into the future and over a limited space-time ‘target’, and is largely determined by the initial and preceding state of the environment, such as the weather or pollution levels, up to the time when the forecast is issued and by its state at the edges of the region being considered; the second kind provides statistical information over long periods of time and/or over large space-time targets, so that they only depend on the statistical averages of the initial and ‘edge’ conditions. Environmental forecasts depend on the various ways that models are constructed. These range from those based on the ‘reductionist’ methodology (i.e., the combination of separate, scientifically based, models for the relevant processes) to those based on statistical methodologies, using a mixture of data and scientifically based empirical modeling. These are, as a rule, focused on specific quantities required for the forecast. The persistence and predictability of events associated with environmental and turbulent flows and the reasons for variation in the accuracy of their forecasts (of the first and second kinds) are now better understood and better modeled. This has partly resulted from using analogous results of disordered chaotic systems, and using the techniques of calculating ensembles of realizations, ideally involving several different models, so as to incorporate in the probabilistic forecasts a wider range of possible events. The rationale for such an approach needs to be developed. However, other insights have resulted from the recognition of the ordered, though randomly occurring, nature of the persistent motions in these flows, whose scales range from those of synoptic weather patterns (whether storms or ‘blocked’ anticyclones) to small scale vortices. These eigen states can be predicted

  12. Errors in Moral Forecasting: Perceptions of Affect Shape the Gap Between Moral Behaviors and Moral Forecasts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teper, Rimma; Tullett, Alexa M; Page-Gould, Elizabeth; Inzlicht, Michael

    2015-07-01

    Research in moral decision making has shown that there may not be a one-to-one relationship between peoples' moral forecasts and behaviors. Although past work suggests that physiological arousal may account for part of the behavior-forecasting discrepancy, whether or not perceptions of affect play an important determinant remains unclear. Here, we investigate whether this discrepancy may arise because people fail to anticipate how they will feel in morally significant situations. In Study 1, forecasters predicted cheating significantly more on a test than participants in a behavior condition actually cheated. Importantly, forecasters who received false somatic feedback, indicative of high arousal, produced forecasts that aligned more closely with behaviors. In Study 2, forecasters who misattributed their arousal to an extraneous source forecasted cheating significantly more. In Study 3, higher dispositional emotional awareness was related to less forecasted cheating. These findings suggest that perceptions of affect play a key role in the behavior-forecasting dissociation.

  13. Effectiveness of box trainers in laparoscopic training

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dhariwal Anender

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Rationale and Objectives: Various devices are used to aid in the education of laparoscopic skills ranging from simple box trainers to sophisticated virtual reality trainers. Virtual reality system is an advanced and effective training method, however it is yet to be adopted in India due to its cost and the advanced technology required for it. Therefore, box trainers are being used to train laparoscopic skills. Hence this study was undertaken to assess the overall effectiveness of the box-training course. Study Procedure: The study was conducted during six-day laparoscopic skills training workshops held during 2006. Twenty five surgeons; age range of 26 to 45 years, of either sex, who had not performed laparoscopic surgery before; attending the workshop were evaluated. Each participant was given a list of tasks to perform before beginning the box-training course on day one and was evaluated quantitatively by rating the successful completion of each test. Evaluation began when the subject placed the first tool into the cannula and ended with task completion. Two evaluation methods used to score the subject, including a global rating scale and a task-specific checklist. After the subject completed all sessions of the workshop, they were asked to perform the same tasks and were evaluated in the same manner. For each task completed by the subjects, the difference in the scores between the second and first runs were calculated and interpreted as an improvement as a percentage of the initial score. Statistical Analysis: Wilcoxon matched-paired signed-ranks test was applied to find out the statistical significance of the results obtained. Results: The mean percentage improvement in scores for both the tasks, using global rating scale, was 44.5% + 6.930 (Mean + SD. For task 1, using the global rating scale mean percentage improvement was 49.4% + 7.948 (Mean + SD. For task 2, mean percentage improvement using global rating scale was 39.6% + 10.4 (Mean

  14. Airfreight forecasting methodology and results

    Science.gov (United States)

    1978-01-01

    A series of econometric behavioral equations was developed to explain and forecast the evolution of airfreight traffic demand for the total U.S. domestic airfreight system, the total U.S. international airfreight system, and the total scheduled international cargo traffic carried by the top 44 foreign airlines. The basic explanatory variables used in these macromodels were the real gross national products of the countries involved and a measure of relative transportation costs. The results of the econometric analysis reveal that the models explain more than 99 percent of the historical evolution of freight traffic. The long term traffic forecasts generated with these models are based on scenarios of the likely economic outlook in the United States and 31 major foreign countries.

  15. Forecast Method of Solar Irradiance with Just-In-Time Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suzuki, Takanobu; Goto, Yusuke; Terazono, Takahiro; Wakao, Shinji; Oozeki, Takashi

    PV power output mainly depends on the solar irradiance which is affected by various meteorological factors. So, it is required to predict solar irradiance in the future for the efficient operation of PV systems. In this paper, we develop a novel approach for solar irradiance forecast, in which we introduce to combine the black-box model (JIT Modeling) with the physical model (GPV data). We investigate the predictive accuracy of solar irradiance over wide controlled-area of each electric power company by utilizing the measured data on the 44 observation points throughout Japan offered by JMA and the 64 points around Kanto by NEDO. Finally, we propose the application forecast method of solar irradiance to the point which is difficulty in compiling the database. And we consider the influence of different GPV default time on solar irradiance prediction.

  16. Policy statement—Boxing participation by children and adolescents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Purcell, Laura; LeBlanc, Claire M A

    2011-09-01

    Thousands of boys and girls younger than 19 years participate in boxing in North America. Although boxing provides benefits for participants, including exercise, self-discipline, and self-confidence, the sport of boxing encourages and rewards deliberate blows to the head and face. Participants in boxing are at risk of head, face, and neck injuries, including chronic and even fatal neurologic injuries. Concussions are one of the most common injuries that occur with boxing. Because of the risk of head and facial injuries, the American Academy of Pediatrics and the Canadian Paediatric Society oppose boxing as a sport for children and adolescents. These organizations recommend that physicians vigorously oppose boxing in youth and encourage patients to participate in alternative sports in which intentional head blows are not central to the sport.

  17. Essays on financial analysts' forecasts

    OpenAIRE

    2006-01-01

    This dissertation contains three self-contained chapters dealing with specific aspects of financial analysts' earnings forecasts. After recent accounting scandals, much attention has turned to the incentives present in the career of professional financial analysts. The literature points to several reasons why financial analysts behave overoptimistically when providing their predictions. In particular, analysts may wish to maintain good relations with firm management, to please the underwriter...

  18. The Exchange Rate Forecasting Puzzle

    OpenAIRE

    Francis Vitek

    2005-01-01

    We survey and update the empirical literature concerning the predictability of nominal exchange rates using structural macroeconomic models over the recent floating exchange rate period. In particular, we consider both flexible and sticky price versions of the monetary model of nominal exchange rate determination. In agreement with the existing empirical literature, we find that nominal exchange rate movements are difficult to forecast, with a random walk generally dominating the monetary mod...

  19. Predicting the Heat Consumption in District Heating Systems using Meteorological Forecasts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Henrik Aalborg, orlov 31.07.2008; Madsen, Henrik

    to which the heat is supplied this transition is smooth. By simulation, combined with theory known from the literature, it is shown that it is crucial to use the actual meteorological forecasts and not the observations of climate when estimating the parameters of the model. To our knowledge......, this is somewhat contrary to practice. The work presented is a demonstration of the value of the so called gray box approach where theoretical knowledge about the system under consideration is combined with information from measurements performed on the system in order to obtain a mathematical description...

  20. Business intelligence from social media: a study from the VAST Box Office Challenge.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Yafeng; Wang, Feng; Maciejewski, Ross

    2014-01-01

    With over 16 million tweets per hour, 600 new blog posts per minute, and 400 million active users on Facebook, businesses have begun searching for ways to turn real-time consumer-based posts into actionable intelligence. The goal is to extract information from this noisy, unstructured data and use it for trend analysis and prediction. Current practices support the idea that visual analytics (VA) can help enable the effective analysis of such data. However, empirical evidence demonstrating the effectiveness of a VA solution is still lacking. A proposed VA toolkit extracts data from Bitly and Twitter to predict movie revenue and ratings. Results from the 2013 VAST Box Office Challenge demonstrate the benefit of an interactive environment for predictive analysis, compared to a purely statistical modeling approach. The VA approach used by the toolkit is generalizable to other domains involving social media data, such as sales forecasting and advertisement analysis.

  1. Earthquake forecast via neutrino tomography

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WANG Bin; CHEN Ya-Zheng; LI Xue-Qian

    2011-01-01

    We discuss the possibility of forecasting earthquakes by means of (anti)neutrino tomography. An- tineutrinos emitted from reactors are used as a probe. As the antineutrinos traverse through a region prone to earthquakes, observable variations in the matter effect on the antineutrino oscillation would provide a tomog- raphy of the vicinity of the region. In this preliminary work, we adopt a simplified model for the geometrical profile and matter density in a fault zone. We calculate the survival probability of electron antineutrinos for cases without and with an anomalous accumulation of electrons which can be considered as a clear signal of the coming earthquake, at the geological region with a fault zone, and find that the variation may reach as much as 3% for ν emitted from a reactor. The case for a ν beam from a neutrino factory is also investigated, and it is noted that, because of the typically high energy associated with such neutrinos, the oscillation length is too large and the resultant variation is not practically observable. Our conclusion is that with the present reactor facilities and detection techniques, it is still a difficult task to make an earthquake forecast using such a scheme, though it seems to be possible from a theoretical point of view while ignoring some uncertainties. However, with the development of the geology, especially the knowledge about the fault zone, and with the improvement of the detection techniques, etc., there is hope that a medium-term earthquake forecast would be feasible.

  2. Forecasting the Success of Governmental

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Konstantinos NIKOLOPOULOS

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available Governments often use budget so as to provide incentives for citizens to adopt new policies, especially when these are promoting eco-friendly technologies e.g. to subsidise the price of a hybrid-car. The public money spent on each policy, is considered to be value-for–money only if many citizens do adopt the proposed policy. This is also known as the ‘cost-effectiveness’ or the ‘economic success’ of a new policy. The latter should not be confused with the ‘economic impact’ of the new policy, as this is usually referred to the respective macro/micro socio-economic impact. This study reports on a experiment with semi-experts using Structured Analogies (SA forecasting the success of a new policy promoting replacing old household air conditioners with energy saving units under a new environment and technology initiative implemented by a European government. The findings shows evidence that Structured Analogies (SA is a useful forecasting tool for policy making, however all methods predicted results that were considerably off the mark, indicating the difficulty of the forecasting task under examination.

  3. Neural networks-based operational prototype for flash flood forecasting: application to Liane flash floods (France

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bertin Dominique

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The Liane River is a small costal river, famous for its floods, which can affect the city of Boulogne-sur-Mer. Due to the complexity of land cover and hydrologic processes, a black-box non-linear modelling was chosen using neural networks. The multilayer perceptron model, known for its property of universal approximation is thus chosen. Four models were designed, each one for one forecasting horizon using rainfall forecasts: 24h, 12h, 6h, 3h. The desired output of the model is original: it represents the maximal value of the water level respectively 24h, 12h, 6h, 3h ahead. Working with best forecasts of rain (the observed ones during the event in the past, on the major flood of the database in test set, the model provides excellent forecasts. Nash criteria calculated for the four lead times are 0.98 (3h, 0.97 (6h, 0.91 (12h, 0.89 (24h. Designed models were thus estimated as efficient enough to be implemented in a specific tool devoted to real time operational use. The software tool is described hereafter: designed in Java, it presents a friendly interface allowing applying various scenarios of future rainfalls, and a graphical visualization of the predicted maximum water levels and their associated real time observed values.

  4. Agrometeorological models for forecasting the qualitative attributes of "Valência" oranges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moreto, Victor Brunini; Rolim, Glauco de Souza; Zacarin, Bruno Gustavo; Vanin, Ana Paula; de Souza, Leone Maia; Latado, Rodrigo Rocha

    2016-09-01

    Forecasting is the act of predicting unknown future events using available data. Estimating, in contrast, uses data to simulate an actual condition. Brazil is the world's largest producer of oranges, and the state of São Paulo is the largest producer in Brazil. The "Valência" orange is among the most common cultivars in the state. We analyzed the influence of monthly meteorological variables during the growth cycle of Valência oranges grafted onto "Rangpur" lime rootstocks (VACR) for São Paulo, and developed monthly agrometeorological models for forecasting the qualitative attributes of VACR in mature orchard. For fruits per box for all months, the best accuracy was of 0.84 % and the minimum forecast range of 4 months. For the relation between °brix and juice acidity (RATIO) the best accuracy was of 0.69 % and the minimum forecast range of 5 months. Minimum, mean and maximum air temperatures, and relative evapotranspiration were the most important variables in the models.

  5. River Flow Forecasting Using Neural Networks and Auto-Calibrated NAM Model with Shuffled Complex Evolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zakermoshfegh, M.; Ghodsian, M.; Salehi Neishabouri, S. A. A.; Shakiba, M.

    River flow forecasting is required to provide important information on a wide range of cases related to design and operation of river systems. Since there are a lot of parameters with uncertainties and non-linear relationships, the calibration of conceptual or physically-based models is often a difficult and time consuming procedure. So it is preferred to implement a heuristic black box model to perform a non-linear mapping between the input and output spaces without detailed consideration of the internal structure of the physical process. In this study, the capability of artificial neural networks for stream flow forecasting in Kashkan River in West of Iran is investigated and compared to a NAM model which is a lumped conceptual model with shuffled complex evolution algorithm for auto calibration. Multi Layer Perceptron and Radial Basis Function neural networks are introduced and implemented. The results show that the discharge can be more adequately forecasted by Multi Layer Perceptron neural network, compared to other implemented models, in case of both peak discharge and base flow forecasting.

  6. DFBX boxes - electrical and cryogenic distribution boxes for the superconducting magnets in the LHC straight sections

    CERN Document Server

    Zbasnik, J P; Gourlay, S A; Green, M A; Hafalia, A Q; Kajiyama, Y; Knolls, M J; La Mantia, R F; Rasson, J E; Reavill, D; Turner, W C

    2003-01-01

    DFBX distribution boxes provide cryogenic and electrical services to superconducting quadrupoles and to a superconducting dipole at either end of four of the long straight sections in the LHC. The DFBX boxes also provide instrumentation and quench protection to the magnets. Current for the quadrupole and the dipole magnet is delivered through leads that combine HTS and gas cooled leads. Current for the 600 A and 120 A correction magnets is provided by pure gas-cooled leads. The bus bars from the leads to the magnets pass through low leak-rate lambda plugs between 1.8 K and 4.4 K. The heat leak into the 1.9 K region from the liquid helium tank is determined by the design of the lambda plugs. This paper describes the DFBX boxes and their function of delivering current and instrumentation signals to the magnets. (2 refs).

  7. Forecasting Space Weather from Magnetograms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Falconer, David A.; Moore, Ronald L.; Barghouty, Abdulnasser F.; Khazanov, Igor

    2012-01-01

    Large flares and fast CMEs are the drivers of the most severe space weather including Solar Energetic Particle Events (SEP Events). Large flares and their co-produced CMEs are powered by the explosive release of free magnetic energy stored in non-potential magnetic fields of sunspot active regions. The free energy is stored in and released from the low-beta regime of the active region s magnetic field above the photosphere, in the chromosphere and low corona. From our work over the past decade and from similar work of several other groups, it is now well established that (1) a proxy of the free magnetic energy stored above the photosphere can be measured from photospheric magnetograms, maps of the measured field in the photosphere, and (2) an active region s rate of production of major CME/flare eruptions in the coming day or so is strongly correlated with its present measured value of the free-energy proxy. These results have led us to use the large database of SOHO/MDI full-disk magnetograms spanning Solar Cycle 23 to obtain empirical forecasting curves that from an active region s present measured value of the free-energy proxy give the active region s expected rates of production of major flares, CMEs, fast CMEs, and SEP Events in the coming day or so (Falconer et al 2011, Space Weather, 9, S04003). For each type of event, the expected rate is readily converted to the chance that the active region will produce such an event in any given forward time window of a day or so. If the chance is small enough (e.g. <5%), the forecast is All Clear for that type of event. We will present these forecasting curves and demonstrate the accuracy of their forecasts. In addition, we will show that the forecasts for major flares and fast CMEs can be made significantly more accurate by taking into account not only the value of the free energy proxy but also the active region s recent productivity of major flares; specifically, whether the active region has produced a major flare

  8. Introduction to time series analysis and forecasting

    CERN Document Server

    Montgomery, Douglas C; Kulahci, Murat

    2008-01-01

    An accessible introduction to the most current thinking in and practicality of forecasting techniques in the context of time-oriented data. Analyzing time-oriented data and forecasting are among the most important problems that analysts face across many fields, ranging from finance and economics to production operations and the natural sciences. As a result, there is a widespread need for large groups of people in a variety of fields to understand the basic concepts of time series analysis and forecasting. Introduction to Time Series Analysis and Forecasting presents the time series analysis branch of applied statistics as the underlying methodology for developing practical forecasts, and it also bridges the gap between theory and practice by equipping readers with the tools needed to analyze time-oriented data and construct useful, short- to medium-term, statistically based forecasts.

  9. Sodium bicarbonate ingestion and boxing performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siegler, Jason C; Hirscher, Kristian

    2010-01-01

    Boxing is a sport that consists of multiple high-intensity bouts separated by minimal recovery time and may benefit from a pre-exercise alkalotic state. The purpose of this study was to observe the ergogenic potential of sodium bicarbonate (NaHCO3) ingestion on boxing performance. Ten amateur boxers volunteered to participate in 2 competitive sparring bouts. The boxers were prematched for weight and boxing ability and consumed either 0.3 g.kg(-1) body weight (BW) of NaHCO3 (BICARB) or 0.045 g.kg(-1) BW of NaCl placebo (PLAC) mixed in diluted low calorie-flavored cordial. The sparring bouts consisted of four 3-minute rounds, each separated by 1-minute seated recovery. Blood acid-base (pH, bicarbonate [HCO3(-)], base excess [BE]), and performance (rates of perceived exertion [RPE], heart rate [HR] [HR(ave) and HR(max)], total punches landed successfully) profiles were analyzed before (where applicable) and after sparring. The results indicated a significant interaction effect for HCO3(-) (p < or = 0.001) and BE (p < 0.001), but not for pH (p = 0.48). Post hoc analysis revealed higher presparring HCO3(-) and BE for the BICARB condition, but no differences between the BICARB and PLAC conditions postsparring. There was a significant increase in punches landed during the BICARB condition (p < 0.001); however, no significant interaction effects for HRave (p = 0.15), HRmax (p = 0.32), or RPE (p = 0.38). The metabolic alkalosis induced by the NaHCO3 loading elevated before and after sparring blood buffering capacity. In practical application, the findings suggest that a standard NaHCO3 loading dose (0.3 g.kg(-1)) improves punch efficacy during 4 rounds of sparring performance.

  10. Grey-Markov Model for Road Accidents Forecasting

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    李相勇; 严余松; 蒋葛夫

    2003-01-01

    In order to improve the forecasting precision of road accidents, by introducing Markov chains forecasting method, a grey-Markov model for forecasting road accidents is established based on grey forecasting method. The model combines the advantages of both grey forecasting method and Markov chains forecasting method, overcomes the influence of random fluctuation data on forecasting precision and widens the application scope of the grey forecasting. An application example is conducted to evaluate the grey-Markov model, which shows that the precision of the grey-Markov model is better than that of grey model in forecasting road accidents.

  11. Experimental Study on Stability of Breakwaters with Penetrating Box Foundations

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    别社安; 李伟; 李增志; 任增金; 及春宁

    2003-01-01

    The breakwater with top-sealed, shallow and wide penetrating box foundations is a new type of structure, applicable to deep water and soft seabed. The relations of horizontal and vertical bearing capacities of the box foundation structure as well as the instability-induced failure modes to its dimensions and external loads are discussed through static model tests and wave tests. The mechanical properties of the stability of the box foundation are similar to those of embedded rigid foundations, i.e. the vertical stresses at the bottom of the box are distributed in a linear pattern under the action of vertical loads, and passive and active soil pressures are developed at the front and back sides of the box under the action of horizontal loads; there are two instability-induced failure modes of the foundation structure-horizontal slide along the box base and tilting due to insufficient local vertical bearing capacity of the soil beneath the box base. The stability of box foundations can be analyzed by use of the methods applied to analysis of the embedded rigid foundations. To increase the width of the box is the most effective way to improve the stability of box foundations.

  12. Smart Distribution Boxes, Complete Energy Management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Platise, Uros

    2010-09-15

    Present households demand side management implementations are turning conventional appliances into smart ones to support auto demand (AutoDR) response function. Present concept features a direct link between the power meters and appliances. In this paper new concept and example of implementation of a so-called Smart Distribution Box (SmartDB) is represented for complete energy and power management. SmartDBs, as an intermediate layer, are extending smart grid power meter functionality to support AutoDR with fast and guaranteed response times, distributed power sources, and besides provide full control over energy management and extra safety functions to the consumers.

  13. CASAS: A Smart Home in a Box

    OpenAIRE

    Cook, Diane J.; Crandall, Aaron S.; Thomas, Brian L.; Krishnan, Narayanan C.

    2012-01-01

    While the potential benefits of smart home technology are widely recognized, a lightweight design is needed for the benefits to be realized at a large scale. We introduce the CASAS “smart home in a box”, a lightweight smart home design that is easy to install and provides smart home capabilities out of the box with no customization or training. We discuss types of data analysis that have been performed by the CASAS group and can be pursued in the future by using this approach to designing and...

  14. Box model for channels of human migration

    CERN Document Server

    Vitanov, Nikolay K

    2016-01-01

    We discuss a mathematical model of migration channel based on the truncated Waring distribution. The truncated Waring distribution is obtained for a more general model of motion of substance through a channel containing finite number of boxes. The model is applied then for case of migrants moving through a channel consisting of finite number of countries or cities. The number of migrants in the channel strongly depends on the number of migrants that enter the channel through the country of entrance. It is shown that if the final destination country is very popular then large percentage of migrants may concentrate there.

  15. Determinants of Box Products of Paths

    CERN Document Server

    Pragel, Daniel

    2011-01-01

    Suppose that G is the graph obtained by taking the box product of a path of length n and a path of length m. Let M be the adjacency matrix of G. If n=m, H.M. Rara showed in 1996 that det(M)=0. We extend this result to allow n and m to be any positive integers, and show that, if gcd(n+1,m+1)>1, then det(M)=0; otherwise, if gcd(n+1,m+1)=1, then det(M)=(-1)^(nm/2).

  16. LHC Crab Cavity Coupler Test Boxes

    CERN Document Server

    Mitchell, James; Burt, Graeme; Calaga, Rama; Macpherson, Alick; Montesinos, Eric; Silva, Subashini; Tutte, Adam; Xiao, Binping

    2016-01-01

    The LHC double quarter wave (DQW) crab cavities have two different types of Higher Order Mode (HOM) couplers in addition to a fundamental power coupler (FPC). The FPC requires conditioning, so to achieve this we have designed a radio-frequency (RF) quarter wave resonator to provide high transmission between two opposing FPCs. For the HOM couplers we must ensure that the stop-band filter is positioned at the cavity frequency and that peak transmission occurs at the same frequencies as the strongest HOMs. We have designed two test boxes which preserve the cavity spectral response in order to test the couplers.

  17. An Architectural Alternative to the Big Box

    OpenAIRE

    Fowler, Kristen Faye

    2008-01-01

    Wal-Mart has plans to open a store in the town of Blacksburg, Virginia. The fact that there is already a Wal-Mart store, in the town of Christiansburg, just four miles away from the proposed location makes this idea ridiculous for some. A large group of Blacksburg residents are opposed to the idea of a Wal-Mart in their town. The usual complaints are about how it will affect small businesses and traffic. The core concept of the â big boxâ store is not the problem. The idea of being abl...

  18. Keller-box method and its application

    CERN Document Server

    Prasad, Kerehalli V

    2014-01-01

    Most of the problems arising in science and engineering are nonlinear. They are inherently difficult to solve. Traditional analytical approximations are valid only for weakly nonlinear problems, and often break down for problems with strong nonlinearity. This book presents the current theoretical developments and applications of Keller-Box method to nonlinear problems. The first half of the bookaddresses basic concepts to understand the theoretical framework for the method. In the second half of the book, the authorsgive a number of examples of coupled nonlinear problems that have been solved

  19. Skillful seasonal forecasts of Arctic sea ice retreat and advance dates in a dynamical forecast system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sigmond, M.; Reader, M. C.; Flato, G. M.; Merryfield, W. J.; Tivy, A.

    2016-12-01

    The need for skillful seasonal forecasts of Arctic sea ice is rapidly increasing. Technology to perform such forecasts with coupled atmosphere-ocean-sea ice systems has only recently become available, with previous skill evaluations mainly limited to area-integrated quantities. Here we show, based on a large set of retrospective ensemble model forecasts, that a dynamical forecast system produces skillful seasonal forecasts of local sea ice retreat and advance dates - variables that are of great interest to a wide range of end users. Advance dates can generally be skillfully predicted at longer lead times ( 5 months on average) than retreat dates ( 3 months). The skill of retreat date forecasts mainly stems from persistence of initial sea ice anomalies, whereas advance date forecasts benefit from longer time scale and more predictable variability in ocean temperatures. These results suggest that further investments in the development of dynamical seasonal forecast systems may result in significant socioeconomic benefits.

  20. 72-Hour Forecast of Precipitation Amounts from the National Weather Service's National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) contains a seamless mosaic of the National Weather Service's (NWS) digital forecasts of precipitation amounts. In...

  1. 48-Hour Forecast of Precipitation Amounts from the National Weather Service's National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) contains a seamless mosaic of the National Weather Service's (NWS) digital forecasts of precipitation amounts. In...

  2. 24-Hour Forecast of Precipitation Amounts from the National Weather Service's National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) contains a seamless mosaic of the National Weather Service's (NWS) digital forecasts of precipitation amounts. In...

  3. 72-Hour Forecast of Air Temperatures from the National Weather Service's National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) contains a seamless mosaic of the National Weather Service's (NWS) digital forecasts of air temperature. In...

  4. 48-Hour Forecast of Air Temperatures from the National Weather Service's National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) contains a seamless mosaic of the National Weather Service's (NWS) digital forecasts of air temperature. In...

  5. 24-Hour Forecast of Air Temperatures from the National Weather Service's National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) contains a seamless mosaic of the National Weather Service's (NWS) digital forecasts of air temperature. In...

  6. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) NCEP-Global Forecast System (GFS) Precipitation Forecast Product

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Global Forecast System (GFS) forecast precipitation data at 37.5km resolution is created at the NOAA Climate Prediction Center for the purpose of near real-time...

  7. Valuation when Cash Flow Forecasts are Biased

    OpenAIRE

    Richard S. Ruback

    2010-01-01

    This paper focuses adaptations to the discount cash flow (DCF) method when valuing forecasted cash flows that are biased measures of expected cash flows. I imagine a simple setting where the expected cash flows equal the forecasted cash flows plus an omitted downside. When the omitted downside is temporary, the adjustment is to deflate the forecasts and to set the discount rate equal to the cost of capital. However, when the downside is permanent, the adjustment is to deflate the cash flows a...

  8. Factor Model Forecasting of Inflation in Croatia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Davor Kunovac

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper tests whether information derived from 144 economic variables (represented by only a few constructed factors can be used for the forecasting of consumer prices in Croatia. The results obtained show that the use of one factor enhances the precision of the benchmark model’s ability to forecast inflation. The methodology used is sufficiently general to be able to be applied directly for the forecasting of other economic variables.

  9. Traffic forecasts under uncertainty and capacity constraints

    OpenAIRE

    2009-01-01

    Traffic forecasts provide essential input for the appraisal of transport investment projects. However, according to recent empirical evidence, long-term predictions are subject to high levels of uncertainty. This paper quantifies uncertainty in traffic forecasts for the tolled motorway network in Spain. Uncertainty is quantified in the form of a confidence interval for the traffic forecast that includes both model uncertainty and input uncertainty. We apply a stochastic simulation process bas...

  10. SHORT-TERM FORECASTING OF MORTGAGE LENDING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Irina V. Orlova

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The article considers the methodological and algorithmic problems arising in modeling and forecasting of time series of mortgage loans. Focuses on the processes of formation of the levels of time series of mortgage loans and the problem of choice and identification of models in the conditions of small samples. For forecasting options are selected and implemented a model of autoregressive and moving average, which allowed to obtain reliable forecasts.

  11. Involving human forecasters in numerical prediction systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. Homar

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Human forecasters routinely improve upon the output from numerical weather prediction models and often have keen insight to model biases and shortcomings. This wealth of knowledge about model performance is largely untapped, however, as it is used only at the end point in the forecast process to interpret the model-predicted fields. Yet there is no reason why human forecasters cannot intervene at other earlier times in the numerical weather prediction process, especially when an ensemble forecasting system is in use. Human intervention in ensemble creation may be particularly helpful for rare events, such as severe weather events, that are not predicted well by numerical models. The USA/NOAA SPC/NSSL Spring Program 2003 tested an ensemble generation method in which human forecasters were involved in the ensemble creation process. The forecaster highlighted structures of interest and, using an adjoint model, a set of perturbations were obtained and used to generate a 32-member ensemble. The results show that this experimental ensemble improves upon the operational numerical forecasts of severe weather. The human-generated ensemble is able to provide improved guidance on high-impact weather events, but lacks global dispersion and produces unreliable forecasts for non-hazardous weather events. Further results from an ensemble constructed by combining the operational ensemble perturbations with the human-generated perturbations shows promising skill for the forecast of severe weather while avoiding the problem of limited global dispersion. The value of human beings in the creation of ensembles designed to target specific high- impact weather events is potentially large. Further investigation of the value of forecasters being part of the ensemble creation process is strongly recommended. There remains a lot to learn about how to create ensembles for short-range forecasts of severe weather, and we need to make better use of the skill and experience of

  12. How rolling forecasting facilitates dynamic, agile planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Debra; Allen, Michael; Schnittger, Stephanie; Hackman, Theresa

    2013-11-01

    Rolling forecasting may be used to replace or supplement the annual budget process. The rolling forecast typically builds on the organization's strategic financial plan, focusing on the first three years of plan projections and comparing the strategic financial plan assumptions with the organization's expected trajectory. Leaders can then identify and respond to gaps between the rolling forecast and the strategic financial plan on an ongoing basis.

  13. Ozone ensemble forecast with machine learning algorithms

    OpenAIRE

    Mallet, Vivien; Stoltz, Gilles; Mauricette, Boris

    2009-01-01

    International audience; We apply machine learning algorithms to perform sequential aggregation of ozone forecasts. The latter rely on a multimodel ensemble built for ozone forecasting with the modeling system Polyphemus. The ensemble simulations are obtained by changes in the physical parameterizations, the numerical schemes, and the input data to the models. The simulations are carried out for summer 2001 over western Europe in order to forecast ozone daily peaks and ozone hourly concentrati...

  14. Factor Model Forecasts of Exchange Rates

    OpenAIRE

    Charles Engel; Nelson C. Mark; Kenneth D. West

    2012-01-01

    We construct factors from a cross section of exchange rates and use the idiosyncratic deviations from the factors to forecast. In a stylized data generating process, we show that such forecasts can be effective even if there is essentially no serial correlation in the univariate exchange rate processes. We apply the technique to a panel of bilateral U.S. dollar rates against 17 OECD countries. We forecast using factors, and using factors combined with any of fundamentals suggested by Taylor r...

  15. Combining SKU-level sales forecasts from models and experts

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ph.H.B.F. Franses (Philip Hans); R. Legerstee (Rianne)

    2009-01-01

    textabstractWe study the performance of SKU-level sales forecasts which linearly combine statistical model forecasts and expert forecasts. Using a large and unique database containing model forecasts for monthly sales of various pharmaceutical products and forecasts given by about fifty experts, we

  16. Post processing rainfall forecasts from numerical weather prediction models for short term streamflow forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. E. Robertson

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Sub-daily ensemble rainfall forecasts that are bias free and reliably quantify forecast uncertainty are critical for flood and short-term ensemble streamflow forecasting. Post processing of rainfall predictions from numerical weather prediction models is typically required to provide rainfall forecasts with these properties. In this paper, a new approach to generate ensemble rainfall forecasts by post processing raw NWP rainfall predictions is introduced. The approach uses a simplified version of the Bayesian joint probability modelling approach to produce forecast probability distributions for individual locations and forecast periods. Ensemble forecasts with appropriate spatial and temporal correlations are then generated by linking samples from the forecast probability distributions using the Schaake shuffle. The new approach is evaluated by applying it to post process predictions from the ACCESS-R numerical weather prediction model at rain gauge locations in the Ovens catchment in southern Australia. The joint distribution of NWP predicted and observed rainfall is shown to be well described by the assumed log-sinh transformed multivariate normal distribution. Ensemble forecasts produced using the approach are shown to be more skilful than the raw NWP predictions both for individual forecast periods and for cumulative totals throughout the forecast periods. Skill increases result from the correction of not only the mean bias, but also biases conditional on the magnitude of the NWP rainfall prediction. The post processed forecast ensembles are demonstrated to successfully discriminate between events and non-events for both small and large rainfall occurrences, and reliably quantify the forecast uncertainty. Future work will assess the efficacy of the post processing method for a wider range of climatic conditions and also investigate the benefits of using post processed rainfall forecast for flood and short term streamflow forecasting.

  17. Bias correcting precipitation forecasts to improve the skill of seasonal streamflow forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crochemore, Louise; Ramos, Maria-Helena; Pappenberger, Florian

    2016-09-01

    Meteorological centres make sustained efforts to provide seasonal forecasts that are increasingly skilful, which has the potential to benefit streamflow forecasting. Seasonal streamflow forecasts can help to take anticipatory measures for a range of applications, such as water supply or hydropower reservoir operation and drought risk management. This study assesses the skill of seasonal precipitation and streamflow forecasts in France to provide insights into the way bias correcting precipitation forecasts can improve the skill of streamflow forecasts at extended lead times. We apply eight variants of bias correction approaches to the precipitation forecasts prior to generating the streamflow forecasts. The approaches are based on the linear scaling and the distribution mapping methods. A daily hydrological model is applied at the catchment scale to transform precipitation into streamflow. We then evaluate the skill of raw (without bias correction) and bias-corrected precipitation and streamflow ensemble forecasts in 16 catchments in France. The skill of the ensemble forecasts is assessed in reliability, sharpness, accuracy and overall performance. A reference prediction system, based on historical observed precipitation and catchment initial conditions at the time of forecast (i.e. ESP method) is used as benchmark in the computation of the skill. The results show that, in most catchments, raw seasonal precipitation and streamflow forecasts are often more skilful than the conventional ESP method in terms of sharpness. However, they are not significantly better in terms of reliability. Forecast skill is generally improved when applying bias correction. Two bias correction methods show the best performance for the studied catchments, each method being more successful in improving specific attributes of the forecasts: the simple linear scaling of monthly values contributes mainly to increasing forecast sharpness and accuracy, while the empirical distribution mapping

  18. Intermediate-term forecasting of aftershocks from an early aftershock sequence: Bayesian and ensemble forecasting approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Omi, Takahiro; Ogata, Yosihiko; Hirata, Yoshito; Aihara, Kazuyuki

    2015-04-01

    Because aftershock occurrences can cause significant seismic risks for a considerable time after the main shock, prospective forecasting of the intermediate-term aftershock activity as soon as possible is important. The epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model with the maximum likelihood estimate effectively reproduces general aftershock activity including secondary or higher-order aftershocks and can be employed for the forecasting. However, because we cannot always expect the accurate parameter estimation from incomplete early aftershock data where many events are missing, such forecasting using only a single estimated parameter set (plug-in forecasting) can frequently perform poorly. Therefore, we here propose Bayesian forecasting that combines the forecasts by the ETAS model with various probable parameter sets given the data. By conducting forecasting tests of 1 month period aftershocks based on the first 1 day data after the main shock as an example of the early intermediate-term forecasting, we show that the Bayesian forecasting performs better than the plug-in forecasting on average in terms of the log-likelihood score. Furthermore, to improve forecasting of large aftershocks, we apply a nonparametric (NP) model using magnitude data during the learning period and compare its forecasting performance with that of the Gutenberg-Richter (G-R) formula. We show that the NP forecast performs better than the G-R formula in some cases but worse in other cases. Therefore, robust forecasting can be obtained by employing an ensemble forecast that combines the two complementary forecasts. Our proposed method is useful for a stable unbiased intermediate-term assessment of aftershock probabilities.

  19. A Simple Fuzzy Time Series Forecasting Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ortiz-Arroyo, Daniel

    2016-01-01

    In this paper we describe a new first order fuzzy time series forecasting model. We show that our automatic fuzzy partitioning method provides an accurate approximation to the time series that when combined with rule forecasting and an OWA operator improves forecasting accuracy. Our model does...... not attempt to provide the best results in comparison with other forecasting methods but to show how to improve first order models using simple techniques. However, we show that our first order model is still capable of outperforming some more complex higher order fuzzy time series models....

  20. Combining forecast weights: Why and how?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yin, Yip Chee; Kok-Haur, Ng; Hock-Eam, Lim

    2012-09-01

    This paper proposes a procedure called forecast weight averaging which is a specific combination of forecast weights obtained from different methods of constructing forecast weights for the purpose of improving the accuracy of pseudo out of sample forecasting. It is found that under certain specified conditions, forecast weight averaging can lower the mean squared forecast error obtained from model averaging. In addition, we show that in a linear and homoskedastic environment, this superior predictive ability of forecast weight averaging holds true irrespective whether the coefficients are tested by t statistic or z statistic provided the significant level is within the 10% range. By theoretical proofs and simulation study, we have shown that model averaging like, variance model averaging, simple model averaging and standard error model averaging, each produces mean squared forecast error larger than that of forecast weight averaging. Finally, this result also holds true marginally when applied to business and economic empirical data sets, Gross Domestic Product (GDP growth rate), Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Average Lending Rate (ALR) of Malaysia.