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Sample records for box jenkins forecasting

  1. Gold sales forecasting: The Box-Jenkins methodology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Johannes Tshepiso Tsoku

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available The study employs the Box-Jenkins Methodology to forecast South African gold sales. For a resource economy like South Africa where metals and minerals account for a high proportion of GDP and export earnings, the decline in gold sales is very disturbing. Box-Jenkins time series technique was used to perform time series analysis of monthly gold sales for the period January 2000 to June 2013 with the following steps: model identification, model estimation, diagnostic checking and forecasting. Furthermore, the prediction accuracy is tested using mean absolute percentage error (MAPE. From the analysis, a seasonal ARIMA(4,1,4×(0,1,112 was found to be the “best fit model” with an MAPE value of 11% indicating that the model is fit to be used to predict or forecast future gold sales for South Africa. In addition, the forecast values show that there will be a decrease in the overall gold sales for the first six months of 2014. It is hoped that the study will help the public and private sectors to understand the gold sales or output scenario and later plan the gold mining activities in South Africa. Furthermore, it is hoped that this research paper has demonstrated the significance of Box-Jenkins technique for this area of research and that they will be applied in the future.

  2. Preliminary analysis on hybrid Box-Jenkins - GARCH modeling in forecasting gold price

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yaziz, Siti Roslindar; Azizan, Noor Azlinna; Ahmad, Maizah Hura; Zakaria, Roslinazairimah; Agrawal, Manju; Boland, John

    2015-02-01

    Gold has been regarded as a valuable precious metal and the most popular commodity as a healthy return investment. Hence, the analysis and prediction of gold price become very significant to investors. This study is a preliminary analysis on gold price and its volatility that focuses on the performance of hybrid Box-Jenkins models together with GARCH in analyzing and forecasting gold price. The Box-Cox formula is used as the data transformation method due to its potential best practice in normalizing data, stabilizing variance and reduces heteroscedasticity using 41-year daily gold price data series starting 2nd January 1973. Our study indicates that the proposed hybrid model ARIMA-GARCH with t-innovation can be a new potential approach in forecasting gold price. This finding proves the strength of GARCH in handling volatility in the gold price as well as overcomes the non-linear limitation in the Box-Jenkins modeling.

  3. Alteration of Box-Jenkins methodology by implementing genetic algorithm method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ismail, Zuhaimy; Maarof, Mohd Zulariffin Md; Fadzli, Mohammad

    2015-02-01

    A time series is a set of values sequentially observed through time. The Box-Jenkins methodology is a systematic method of identifying, fitting, checking and using integrated autoregressive moving average time series model for forecasting. Box-Jenkins method is an appropriate for a medium to a long length (at least 50) time series data observation. When modeling a medium to a long length (at least 50), the difficulty arose in choosing the accurate order of model identification level and to discover the right parameter estimation. This presents the development of Genetic Algorithm heuristic method in solving the identification and estimation models problems in Box-Jenkins. Data on International Tourist arrivals to Malaysia were used to illustrate the effectiveness of this proposed method. The forecast results that generated from this proposed model outperformed single traditional Box-Jenkins model.

  4. Previsão de demanda: uma aplicação dos modelos Box-Jenkins na área de assistência técnica de computadores pessoais Demand forecasting: an application of the Box-Jenkins models in the technical assistance of personal computer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liane Werner

    2003-04-01

    Full Text Available A previsão de demanda é uma atividade importante para auxiliar na determinação dos recursos necessários para a empresa. Neste artigo, a metodologia de Box-Jenkins foi utilizada para analisar dados históricos de uma empresa de assistência técnica de computadores pessoais e obter previsões do número de atendimentos. A empresa estudada apresenta três tipos de clientes diferenciados: contratos, garantia e avulsos. Como cada segmento de clientes tem suas peculiaridades, a previsão de demanda foi direcionada a cada tipo, buscando representar o comportamento de tendência e a sazonalidade por meio dos modelos de Box-Jenkins. A obtenção dos modelos mais adequados foi baseada na análise de gráficos e em testes estatísticos próprios da metodologia, os quais subsidiaram a decisão de adotar o modelo AR(1 para prever o número de atendimentos dos clientes tipo contrato, o modelo ARIMA(2,1,0 para os clientes tipo garantia e um modelo sazonal SARIMA(0,1,0(0,1,112 para os clientes tipo avulsos.Demand forecasting is an important tool to aid on the determination of necessary resources of a given company. In this paper, the Box-Jenkins methodology was applied to analyze historical data of a personal computer repair company and provide a forecast for the number of service calls. The company studied presents three segments of clients: contracts, warranty, and on-call. As each client has it own characteristics, in order to better represent tendency and seasonality behavior through the Box-Jenkins models, a specific forecasting model was developed for each segment. The choice of the optimum models were based into graphic analysis and statistical tests, which lead to the decision of adopting the AR(1 model to foresee the number of contract clients, the ARIMA(2,1,0 model for warranty clients and the SARIMA(0,1,0(0,1,112 seasonal model for on-call clients.

  5. Box-Jenkins analysis for shark landings in Costa Rica

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roger Bonilla

    2004-12-01

    Full Text Available Sharks are highly vulnerable to intense and prolonged fishery extraction. This article analyzes the data on shark landings from the artisan fishing fleet on Costa Rica’s Pacific coast between 1988 and 1997. The data come from an invoicing system administered by the Costa Rican Fisheries Institute (Instituto Costarricense de la Pesca y Acuacultura, INCOPESCA. Pacific coast shark fishing during the period under study represented approximately 20% of the total national fisheries volume. According to data from the invoicing system, the Northern Pacific region was the most productive, reporting 58% of the shark catch nationwide. Within this region, shark fishing in Papagayo Gulf represented 91% and 53% of the landings by fishery region and nationwide, respectively. The mid-sized and advanced (length of boat > 10 meters artisan fishing fleets reported 96% of the shark catches in the zone. The study of shark fisheries in the Papagayo Gulf zone is crucial for an understanding of fishery dynamics for this resource at the national level. A monthly chronological series was constructed with the landings in the Papagayo Gulf zone, and a Univariate Box-Jenkins (UBJ Model was estimated for first-order moving averages MA(1 with a seasonal component of the Yt = lambda a t + gamma S12 + a t typeEn este trabajo, se analizaron los datos de desembarque de tiburón de la flota pesquera artesanal en el Pacífico costarricense entre 1988 y 1997. Los datos provienen de un sistema de facturas administrado por el Instituto Costarricense de la Pesca (INCOPESCA. En el Pacífico, la pesca de tiburón en el período de estudio representó aproximadamente el 20% del volumen total de pesca a nivel nacional. De acuerdo con los datos del sistema de facturas, la región del Pacífico Norte fue la más productiva, reportando un 58% de los desembarques de tiburón a nivel nacional. En esta región, la pesca de tiburón en la zona del Golfo de Papagayo reportó 91% y 53% de los

  6. Autocorrelated process control: Geometric Brownian Motion approach versus Box-Jenkins approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salleh, R. M.; Zawawi, N. I.; Gan, Z. F.; Nor, M. E.

    2018-04-01

    Existing of autocorrelation will bring a significant effect on the performance and accuracy of process control if the problem does not handle carefully. When dealing with autocorrelated process, Box-Jenkins method will be preferred because of the popularity. However, the computation of Box-Jenkins method is too complicated and challenging which cause of time-consuming. Therefore, an alternative method which known as Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM) is introduced to monitor the autocorrelated process. One real case of furnace temperature data is conducted to compare the performance of Box-Jenkins and GBM methods in monitoring autocorrelation process. Both methods give the same results in terms of model accuracy and monitoring process control. Yet, GBM is superior compared to Box-Jenkins method due to its simplicity and practically with shorter computational time.

  7. Analysis Monthly Import of Palm Oil Products Using Box-Jenkins Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahmad, Nurul F. Y.; Khalid, Kamil; Saifullah Rusiman, Mohd; Ghazali Kamardan, M.; Roslan, Rozaini; Che-Him, Norziha

    2018-04-01

    The palm oil industry has been an important component of the national economy especially the agriculture sector. The aim of this study is to identify the pattern of import of palm oil products, to model the time series using Box-Jenkins model and to forecast the monthly import of palm oil products. The method approach is included in the statistical test for verifying the equivalence model and statistical measurement of three models, namely Autoregressive (AR) model, Moving Average (MA) model and Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) model. The model identification of all product import palm oil is different in which the AR(1) was found to be the best model for product import palm oil while MA(3) was found to be the best model for products import palm kernel oil. For the palm kernel, MA(4) was found to be the best model. The results forecast for the next four months for products import palm oil, palm kernel oil and palm kernel showed the most significant decrease compared to the actual data.

  8. BOX & JENKINS METHODOLOGY: AN APLICATION IN RAW MILK DATA FROM THE STATE OF MINAS GERAIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eduardo Campana Barbosa

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available The Box & Jenkins methodology was used to obtain a statistical model for estimate the production in liters of milk of the 6 first months of 2013 in Minas Gerais state, adjusting SARIMA (p, d, q x (P, D, Qs models, where d and D are the number of differences to remove the trend and seasonality of time series, p and q are the order of the autoregressive and moving average operators, P and Q are the order of the autoregressive and moving average seasonal operators and s is the seasonal periodicity. The Akaike Criterion Information (AIC procedure was used to select the 6 most parsimonious models and to find the best one the error indicators Mean Squared Error (EQM and Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE were analyzed, in addition to the assumptions of residues white noise. The Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average SARIMA (3,1,2 x (0,1,212 was upper, view of the principle of parsimony and with more precise estimates. The forecast was more adjusted to the real values of milk production in Minas Gerais state and the model had smaller error indicators. The residues estimated were by this model white noise.

  9. Jenkins essentials

    CERN Document Server

    Soni, Mitesh

    2015-01-01

    If you are a Jenkins novice or beginner with a basic understanding of continuous integration, then this is the book for you. Beginners in Jenkins will get quick hands-on experience and gain the confidence to go ahead and explore the use of Jenkins further.

  10. TIME SERIES CHARACTERISTIC ANALYSIS OF RAINFALL, LAND USE AND FLOOD DISCHARGE BASED ON ARIMA BOX-JENKINS MODEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abror Abror

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Indonesia located in tropic area consists of wet season and dry season. However, in last few years, in river discharge in dry season is very little, but in contrary, in wet season, frequency of flood increases with sharp peak and increasingly great water elevation. The increased flood discharge may occur due to change in land use or change in rainfall characteristic. Both matters should get clarity. Therefore, a research should be done to analyze rainfall characteristic, land use and flood discharge in some watershed area (DAS quantitatively from time series data. The research was conducted in DAS Gintung in Parakankidang, DAS Gung in Danawarih, DAS Rambut in Cipero, DAS Kemiri in Sidapurna and DAS Comal in Nambo, located in Tegal Regency and Pemalang Regency in Central Java Province. This research activity consisted of three main steps: input, DAS system and output. Input is DAS determination and selection and searching secondary data. DAS system is early secondary data processing consisting of rainfall analysis, HSS GAMA I parameter, land type analysis and DAS land use. Output is final processing step that consisting of calculation of Tadashi Tanimoto, USSCS effective rainfall, flood discharge, ARIMA analysis, result analysis and conclusion. Analytical calculation of ARIMA Box-Jenkins time series used software Number Cruncher Statistical Systems and Power Analysis Sample Size (NCSS-PASS version 2000, which result in time series characteristic in form of time series pattern, mean square errors (MSE, root mean square ( RMS, autocorrelation of residual and trend. Result of this research indicates that composite CN and flood discharge is proportional that means when composite CN trend increase then flood discharge trend also increase and vice versa. Meanwhile, decrease of rainfall trend is not always followed with decrease in flood discharge trend. The main cause of flood discharge characteristic is DAS management characteristic, not change in

  11. Interview with Henry Jenkins

    OpenAIRE

    TWC Editor

    2008-01-01

    An interview with Henry Jenkins focussing on Transformative Works and Cultures (TWC), the Organization for Transformative Works (OTW), and Jenkins' academic research into fan and participatory cultures.

  12. Interview with Henry Jenkins

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    TWC Editor

    2008-09-01

    Full Text Available An interview with Henry Jenkins focussing on Transformative Works and Cultures (TWC, the Organization for Transformative Works (OTW, and Jenkins' academic research into fan and participatory cultures.

  13. Análisis de la serie de precios del trigo mediante la metodología box-jenkins , y su cointegración con las series de precios de productos derivados

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hanns de la Fuente Mella

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available El siguiente estudio presenta un análisis de series temporales de los precios reales del trigo en Chile, para el período comprendido entre el mes de enero de 1990 y enero de 2007, utilizando la metodología Box-Jenkins. Además, se presenta un análisis de cointegración entre los precios reales del trigo y algunos de sus derivados como el Pan, la Harina y los Tallarines. La muestra fue ajustada con un modelo ARIMA (2,1,1, mostrando algunos inconvenientes en una de las hipótesis que el procedimiento necesita confirmar, lo que fue solucionado aplicando la "Ley de Los Grandes Números", es decir, utilizando el teorema del límite central. Respecto de la cointegración, nuestro supuesto de la existencia de ésta fue validado mediante el test de Phillips-Perron para raíces unitarias, demostrando cuantitativamente la existencia de cointegración entre los precios del trigo y sus derivados en estudio.Además, se valida la hipótesis de estacionalidad de los precios del trigo para los meses de Noviembre, Diciembre y Enero debido a la escasez del producto en dichos períodos.Finalmente, la presencia de cointegración demostrada sirve de incentivo para que futuros investigadores puedan utilizar estos resultados, con el objeto de realizar pronósticos para el precio del trigo y sus derivados, pensando en la existencia de un equilibrio estable entre las variables. The following study presents a serial temporal analysis of the real prices of Wheat in Chili, for the period between, January, 1990 and January 2007 , using the Box- Jenkins methodology. Besides,we present an analysis of cointegration between the real prices of Wheat and sorne of his derivates products like bread, Flour and noodles. We suppose cointegration that was confirmed with the Phillip-Perron test. The sample of data was fitted whit a model ARIMA (2,1,1 showing sorne troubles in one of the hypothes1s that the procedure need to confirm.That was solved by applying de "Big Numbers Law

  14. Jenkins The Definitive Guide

    CERN Document Server

    Smart, John

    2011-01-01

    Streamline software development with Jenkins, the popular Java-based open source tool that has revolutionized the way teams think about Continuous Integration (CI). This complete guide shows you how to automate your build, integration, release, and deployment processes with Jenkins-and demonstrates how CI can save you time, money, and many headaches. Ideal for developers, software architects, and project managers, Jenkins: The Definitive Guide is both a CI tutorial and a comprehensive Jenkins reference. Through its wealth of best practices and real-world tips, you'll discover how easy it is

  15. The Jenkins of Charlottetown.

    OpenAIRE

    Whelan, W L

    1996-01-01

    For nearly a century residents of Prince Edward Island were served by three physicians known collectively to the community as Dr. Jenkins. Father John, son Stephen and grandson Jack, each of whom won acclaim for service to medicine, war service and political work, practised a total of 89 years, from 1856 to 1945. This article looks back at a distinguished family's career in medicine.

  16. Jenkins continuous integration cookbook

    CERN Document Server

    Berg, Alan Mark

    2015-01-01

    If you are a Java developer, a software architect, a technical project manager, a build manager, or a development or QA engineer, then this book is ideal for you. A basic understanding of the software development life cycle and Java development is needed, as well as a rudimentary understanding of Jenkins.

  17. Forecasting with Dynamic Regression Models

    CERN Document Server

    Pankratz, Alan

    2012-01-01

    One of the most widely used tools in statistical forecasting, single equation regression models is examined here. A companion to the author's earlier work, Forecasting with Univariate Box-Jenkins Models: Concepts and Cases, the present text pulls together recent time series ideas and gives special attention to possible intertemporal patterns, distributed lag responses of output to input series and the auto correlation patterns of regression disturbance. It also includes six case studies.

  18. Selection of the optimal Box-Cox transformation parameter for modelling and forecasting age-specific fertility

    OpenAIRE

    Shang, Han Lin

    2015-01-01

    The Box-Cox transformation can sometimes yield noticeable improvements in model simplicity, variance homogeneity and precision of estimation, such as in modelling and forecasting age-specific fertility. Despite its importance, there have been few studies focusing on the optimal selection of Box-Cox transformation parameters in demographic forecasting. A simple method is proposed for selecting the optimal Box-Cox transformation parameter, along with an algorithm based on an in-sample forecast ...

  19. Forecasts of non-Gaussian parameter spaces using Box-Cox transformations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joachimi, B.; Taylor, A. N.

    2011-09-01

    Forecasts of statistical constraints on model parameters using the Fisher matrix abound in many fields of astrophysics. The Fisher matrix formalism involves the assumption of Gaussianity in parameter space and hence fails to predict complex features of posterior probability distributions. Combining the standard Fisher matrix with Box-Cox transformations, we propose a novel method that accurately predicts arbitrary posterior shapes. The Box-Cox transformations are applied to parameter space to render it approximately multivariate Gaussian, performing the Fisher matrix calculation on the transformed parameters. We demonstrate that, after the Box-Cox parameters have been determined from an initial likelihood evaluation, the method correctly predicts changes in the posterior when varying various parameters of the experimental setup and the data analysis, with marginally higher computational cost than a standard Fisher matrix calculation. We apply the Box-Cox-Fisher formalism to forecast cosmological parameter constraints by future weak gravitational lensing surveys. The characteristic non-linear degeneracy between matter density parameter and normalization of matter density fluctuations is reproduced for several cases, and the capabilities of breaking this degeneracy by weak-lensing three-point statistics is investigated. Possible applications of Box-Cox transformations of posterior distributions are discussed, including the prospects for performing statistical data analysis steps in the transformed Gaussianized parameter space.

  20. Forecasting daily meteorological time series using ARIMA and regression models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murat, Małgorzata; Malinowska, Iwona; Gos, Magdalena; Krzyszczak, Jaromir

    2018-04-01

    The daily air temperature and precipitation time series recorded between January 1, 1980 and December 31, 2010 in four European sites (Jokioinen, Dikopshof, Lleida and Lublin) from different climatic zones were modeled and forecasted. In our forecasting we used the methods of the Box-Jenkins and Holt- Winters seasonal auto regressive integrated moving-average, the autoregressive integrated moving-average with external regressors in the form of Fourier terms and the time series regression, including trend and seasonality components methodology with R software. It was demonstrated that obtained models are able to capture the dynamics of the time series data and to produce sensible forecasts.

  1. Performance Assessment of Black Box Capacity Forecasting for Multi-Market Trade Application

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pamela MacDougall

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available With the growth of renewable generated electricity in the energy mix, large energy storage and flexible demand, particularly aggregated demand response is becoming a front runner as a new participant in the wholesale energy markets. One of the biggest barriers for the integration of aggregator services into market participation is knowledge of the current and future flexible capacity. To calculate the available flexibility, the current aggregator pilot and simulation implementations use lower level measurements and device specifications. This type of implementation is not scalable due to computational constraints, as well as it could conflict with end user privacy rights. Black box machine learning approaches have been proven to accurately estimate the available capacity of a cluster of heating devices using only aggregated data. This study will investigate the accuracy of this approach when applied to a heterogeneous virtual power plant (VPP. Firstly, a sensitivity analysis of the machine learning model is performed when varying the underlying device makeup of the VPP. Further, the forecasted flexible capacity of a heterogeneous residential VPP was applied to a trade strategy, which maintains a day ahead schedule, as well as offers flexibility to the imbalance market. This performance is then compared when using the same strategy with no capacity forecasting, as well as perfect knowledge. It was shown that at most, the highest average error, regardless of the VPP makeup, was still less than 9%. Further, when applying the forecasted capacity to a trading strategy, 89% of the optimal performance can be met. This resulted in a reduction of monthly costs by approximately 20%.

  2. Structured, Physically Inspired (Gray Box) Models Versus Black Box Modeling for Forecasting the Output Power of Photovoltaic Plants

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Paulescu, M.; Brabec, Marek; Boata, R.; Badescu, V.

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 121, 15 February (2017), s. 792-802 ISSN 0360-5442 Grant - others:European Cooperation in Science and Technology(XE) COST ES1002 Institutional support: RVO:67985807 Keywords : photovoltaic plant * output power * forecasting * fuzzy model * generalized additive model Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research OBOR OECD: Statistics and probability Impact factor: 4.520, year: 2016

  3. Box Office Forecasting considering Competitive Environment and Word-of-Mouth in Social Networks: A Case Study of Korean Film Market.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Taegu; Hong, Jungsik; Kang, Pilsung

    2017-01-01

    Accurate box office forecasting models are developed by considering competition and word-of-mouth (WOM) effects in addition to screening-related information. Nationality, genre, ratings, and distributors of motion pictures running concurrently with the target motion picture are used to describe the competition, whereas the numbers of informative, positive, and negative mentions posted on social network services (SNS) are used to gauge the atmosphere spread by WOM. Among these candidate variables, only significant variables are selected by genetic algorithm (GA), based on which machine learning algorithms are trained to build forecasting models. The forecasts are combined to improve forecasting performance. Experimental results on the Korean film market show that the forecasting accuracy in early screening periods can be significantly improved by considering competition. In addition, WOM has a stronger influence on total box office forecasting. Considering both competition and WOM improves forecasting performance to a larger extent than when only one of them is considered.

  4. Box Office Forecasting considering Competitive Environment and Word-of-Mouth in Social Networks: A Case Study of Korean Film Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Taegu Kim

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Accurate box office forecasting models are developed by considering competition and word-of-mouth (WOM effects in addition to screening-related information. Nationality, genre, ratings, and distributors of motion pictures running concurrently with the target motion picture are used to describe the competition, whereas the numbers of informative, positive, and negative mentions posted on social network services (SNS are used to gauge the atmosphere spread by WOM. Among these candidate variables, only significant variables are selected by genetic algorithm (GA, based on which machine learning algorithms are trained to build forecasting models. The forecasts are combined to improve forecasting performance. Experimental results on the Korean film market show that the forecasting accuracy in early screening periods can be significantly improved by considering competition. In addition, WOM has a stronger influence on total box office forecasting. Considering both competition and WOM improves forecasting performance to a larger extent than when only one of them is considered.

  5. A Hybrid Approach on Tourism Demand Forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nor, M. E.; Nurul, A. I. M.; Rusiman, M. S.

    2018-04-01

    Tourism has become one of the important industries that contributes to the country’s economy. Tourism demand forecasting gives valuable information to policy makers, decision makers and organizations related to tourism industry in order to make crucial decision and planning. However, it is challenging to produce an accurate forecast since economic data such as the tourism data is affected by social, economic and environmental factors. In this study, an equally-weighted hybrid method, which is a combination of Box-Jenkins and Artificial Neural Networks, was applied to forecast Malaysia’s tourism demand. The forecasting performance was assessed by taking the each individual method as a benchmark. The results showed that this hybrid approach outperformed the other two models

  6. The Ideas of Henry Jenkins and Libraries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, Byron

    2008-01-01

    Henry Jenkins, director of the Comparative Media Studies Program at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and keynote speaker at the 2007 American Library Association's "Gaming, Learning and Libraries Symposium" in Chicago is a visionary leader in the areas of new media and media convergence. In a white paper on digital media and learning…

  7. Forecasting Natural Rubber Price In Malaysia Using Arima

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zahari, Fatin Z.; Khalid, Kamil; Roslan, Rozaini; Sufahani, Suliadi; Mohamad, Mahathir; Saifullah Rusiman, Mohd; Ali, Maselan

    2018-04-01

    This paper contains introduction, materials and methods, results and discussions, conclusions and references. Based on the title mentioned, high volatility of the price of natural rubber nowadays will give the significant risk to the producers, traders, consumers, and others parties involved in the production of natural rubber. To help them in making decisions, forecasting is needed to predict the price of natural rubber. The main objective of the research is to forecast the upcoming price of natural rubber by using the reliable statistical method. The data are gathered from Malaysia Rubber Board which the data are from January 2000 until December 2015. In this research, average monthly price of Standard Malaysia Rubber 20 (SMR20) will be forecast by using Box-Jenkins approach. Time series plot is used to determine the pattern of the data. The data have trend pattern which indicates the data is non-stationary data and the data need to be transformed. By using the Box-Jenkins method, the best fit model for the time series data is ARIMA (1, 1, 0) which this model satisfy all the criteria needed. Hence, ARIMA (1, 1, 0) is the best fitted model and the model will be used to forecast the average monthly price of Standard Malaysia Rubber 20 (SMR20) for twelve months ahead.

  8. Network Bandwidth Utilization Forecast Model on High Bandwidth Network

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yoo, Wucherl; Sim, Alex

    2014-07-07

    With the increasing number of geographically distributed scientific collaborations and the scale of the data size growth, it has become more challenging for users to achieve the best possible network performance on a shared network. We have developed a forecast model to predict expected bandwidth utilization for high-bandwidth wide area network. The forecast model can improve the efficiency of resource utilization and scheduling data movements on high-bandwidth network to accommodate ever increasing data volume for large-scale scientific data applications. Univariate model is developed with STL and ARIMA on SNMP path utilization data. Compared with traditional approach such as Box-Jenkins methodology, our forecast model reduces computation time by 83.2percent. It also shows resilience against abrupt network usage change. The accuracy of the forecast model is within the standard deviation of the monitored measurements.

  9. Network bandwidth utilization forecast model on high bandwidth networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yoo, Wuchert (William) [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Sim, Alex [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

    2015-03-30

    With the increasing number of geographically distributed scientific collaborations and the scale of the data size growth, it has become more challenging for users to achieve the best possible network performance on a shared network. We have developed a forecast model to predict expected bandwidth utilization for high-bandwidth wide area network. The forecast model can improve the efficiency of resource utilization and scheduling data movements on high-bandwidth network to accommodate ever increasing data volume for large-scale scientific data applications. Univariate model is developed with STL and ARIMA on SNMP path utilization data. Compared with traditional approach such as Box-Jenkins methodology, our forecast model reduces computation time by 83.2%. It also shows resilience against abrupt network usage change. The accuracy of the forecast model is within the standard deviation of the monitored measurements.

  10. Tailored vs Black-Box Models for Forecasting Hourly Average Solar Irradiance

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Brabec, Marek; Paulescu, M.; Badescu, V.

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 111, January (2015), s. 320-331 ISSN 0038-092X R&D Projects: GA MŠk LD12009 Grant - others:European Cooperation in Science and Technology(XE) COST ES1002 Institutional support: RVO:67985807 Keywords : solar irradiance * forecasting * tilored statistical models Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research Impact factor: 3.685, year: 2015

  11. Forecasting Fire Insurance Loss Ratio in Misr Insurance Company

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tarek TAHA

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Loss ratio is one of the most important indicator that has many strategic decisions applications, such as pricing, underwriting, investment, reinsurance and reserving decisions. It serves as an early warning of financial solvency of insurance companies and it can be judged on the strength of the financial position of these companies. The aim of this study is to identify the reliable time series-forecasting model to forecast loss ratio estimates of fire segment in Misr insurance company. Box-Jenkins Analysis is applied on actual reported loss ratios data for Misr insurance company for the period 1980/1981– 2013/2014. The study concludes that the best forecasting model is ARMA(1,1.

  12. Multivariate methods and forecasting with IBM SPSS statistics

    CERN Document Server

    Aljandali, Abdulkader

    2017-01-01

    This is the second of a two-part guide to quantitative analysis using the IBM SPSS Statistics software package; this volume focuses on multivariate statistical methods and advanced forecasting techniques. More often than not, regression models involve more than one independent variable. For example, forecasting methods are commonly applied to aggregates such as inflation rates, unemployment, exchange rates, etc., that have complex relationships with determining variables. This book introduces multivariate regression models and provides examples to help understand theory underpinning the model. The book presents the fundamentals of multivariate regression and then moves on to examine several related techniques that have application in business-orientated fields such as logistic and multinomial regression. Forecasting tools such as the Box-Jenkins approach to time series modeling are introduced, as well as exponential smoothing and naïve techniques. This part also covers hot topics such as Factor Analysis, Dis...

  13. Forecasting Marine Corps Enlisted Manpower Inventory Levels With Univariate Time Series Models

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Feiring, Douglas I

    2006-01-01

    .... Models are developed for 44 representative population groups using Holt-Winters exponential smoothing, multiplicative decomposition, and Box-Jenkins autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA...

  14. Forecasting hotspots in East Kutai, Kutai Kartanegara, and West Kutai as early warning information

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wahyuningsih, S.; Goejantoro, R.; Rizki, N. A.

    2018-04-01

    The aims of this research are to model hotspots and forecast hotspot 2017 in East Kutai, Kutai Kartanegara and West Kutai. The methods which used in this research were Holt exponential smoothing, Holt’s additive dump trend method, Holt-Winters’ additive method, additive decomposition method, multiplicative decomposition method, Loess decomposition method and Box-Jenkins method. For smoothing techniques, additive decomposition is better than Holt’s exponential smoothing. The hotspots model using Box-Jenkins method were Autoregressive Moving Average ARIMA(1,1,0), ARIMA(0,2,1), and ARIMA(0,1,0). Comparing the results from all methods which were used in this research, and based on Root of Mean Squared Error (RMSE), show that Loess decomposition method is the best times series model, because it has the least RMSE. Thus the Loess decomposition model used to forecast the number of hotspot. The forecasting result indicatethat hotspots pattern tend to increase at the end of 2017 in Kutai Kartanegara and West Kutai, but stationary in East Kutai.

  15. Modeling and forecasting rainfall patterns of southwest monsoons in North-East India as a SARIMA process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Narasimha Murthy, K. V.; Saravana, R.; Vijaya Kumar, K.

    2018-02-01

    Weather forecasting is an important issue in the field of meteorology all over the world. The pattern and amount of rainfall are the essential factors that affect agricultural systems. India experiences the precious Southwest monsoon season for four months from June to September. The present paper describes an empirical study for modeling and forecasting the time series of Southwest monsoon rainfall patterns in the North-East India. The Box-Jenkins Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) methodology has been adopted for model identification, diagnostic checking and forecasting for this region. The study has shown that the SARIMA (0, 1, 1) (1, 0, 1)4 model is appropriate for analyzing and forecasting the future rainfall patterns. The Analysis of Means (ANOM) is a useful alternative to the analysis of variance (ANOVA) for comparing the group of treatments to study the variations and critical comparisons of rainfall patterns in different months of the season.

  16. Influenza forecasting with Google Flu Trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dugas, Andrea Freyer; Jalalpour, Mehdi; Gel, Yulia; Levin, Scott; Torcaso, Fred; Igusa, Takeru; Rothman, Richard E

    2013-01-01

    We developed a practical influenza forecast model based on real-time, geographically focused, and easy to access data, designed to provide individual medical centers with advanced warning of the expected number of influenza cases, thus allowing for sufficient time to implement interventions. Secondly, we evaluated the effects of incorporating a real-time influenza surveillance system, Google Flu Trends, and meteorological and temporal information on forecast accuracy. Forecast models designed to predict one week in advance were developed from weekly counts of confirmed influenza cases over seven seasons (2004-2011) divided into seven training and out-of-sample verification sets. Forecasting procedures using classical Box-Jenkins, generalized linear models (GLM), and generalized linear autoregressive moving average (GARMA) methods were employed to develop the final model and assess the relative contribution of external variables such as, Google Flu Trends, meteorological data, and temporal information. A GARMA(3,0) forecast model with Negative Binomial distribution integrating Google Flu Trends information provided the most accurate influenza case predictions. The model, on the average, predicts weekly influenza cases during 7 out-of-sample outbreaks within 7 cases for 83% of estimates. Google Flu Trend data was the only source of external information to provide statistically significant forecast improvements over the base model in four of the seven out-of-sample verification sets. Overall, the p-value of adding this external information to the model is 0.0005. The other exogenous variables did not yield a statistically significant improvement in any of the verification sets. Integer-valued autoregression of influenza cases provides a strong base forecast model, which is enhanced by the addition of Google Flu Trends confirming the predictive capabilities of search query based syndromic surveillance. This accessible and flexible forecast model can be used by

  17. Koht, kust tagasi ei tulda / Mark Jenkins ; fotod Cory Richards

    Index Scriptorium Estoniae

    Jenkins, Mark

    2015-01-01

    National Geographicu ekspeditsiooni, mille koosseisu kuulusid Renan Ozturk, Mark Jenkins, Cory Richards, Emily Harrington ja Kilaree O'Neill, püüdlustest tõusta Kagu-Aasia kõrgeima mäe Hkakabo Razi tippu ning mõõta selle täpset kõrgust GPS-i abil

  18. Forecasting of time series with trend and seasonal cycle using the airline model and artificial neural networks Pronóstico de series de tiempo con tendencia y ciclo estacional usando el modelo airline y redes neuronales artificiales

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J D Velásquez

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Many time series with trend and seasonal pattern are successfully modeled and forecasted by the airline model of Box and Jenkins; however, this model neglects the presence of nonlinearity on data. In this paper, we propose a new nonlinear version of the airline model; for this, we replace the moving average linear component by a multilayer perceptron neural network. The proposedmodel is used for forecasting two benchmark time series; we found that theproposed model is able to forecast the time series with more accuracy that other traditional approaches.Muchas series de tiempo con tendencia y ciclos estacionales son exitosamente modeladas y pronosticadas usando el modelo airline de Box y Jenkins; sin embargo, la presencia de no linealidades en los datos son despreciadas por este modelo. En este artículo, se propone una nueva versión no lineal del modelo airline; para esto, se reemplaza la componente lineal de promedios móviles por un perceptrón multicapa. El modelo propuesto es usado para pronosticar dos series de tiempo benchmark; se encontró que el modelo propuesto es capaz de pronosticar las series de tiempo con mayor precisión que otras aproximaciones tradicionales.

  19. Estimation and Forecasting the Gross Domestic Product´s Growth Rate in Ecuador: a Short-term Vision

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yadier Alberto Torres−Sánchez

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Ecuador is the seventh largest economy in Latin America. From 2000 to 2012, the country has been expanding at an average rate of 1,15 % on a quarter over quarter basis, mostly due to a rise in exports. Ecuador´s economy is highly dependent on oil exports. In order to reach its full growth potential, the country needs to reduce its dependence on oil revenue; increase the tax base; achieve political stability and reduce the levels of poverty and inequality. The main objective of this research is specifically marked in estimate and forecast the Gross Domestic Product´s Growth Rate in Ecuador, applying for this BoxJenkins´ Methodology for ARIMA models. It was obtained a forecast of 3,96 % approximately, that represents a logical result according with the time series.

  20. Estimation and Forecasting the Gross Domestic Product´s Growth Rate in Ecuador: a Short-term Vision

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yadier Alberto Torres−Sánchez

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Ecuador is the seventh largest economy in Latin America. From 2000 to 2012, the country has been expanding at an average rate of 1,15 % on a quarter over quarter basis, mostly due to a rise in exports. Ecuador´s economy is highly dependent on oil exports. In order to reach its full growth potential, the country needs to reduce its dependence on oil revenue; increase the tax base; achieve political stability and reduce the levels of poverty and inequality. The main objective of this research is specifically marked in estimate and forecast the Gross Domestic Product´s Growth Rate in Ecuador, applying for this BoxJenkins´ Methodology for ARIMA models. It was obtained a forecast of 3,96 % approximately, that represents a logical result according with the time series.

  1. Forecast of Frost Days Based on Monthly Temperatures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castellanos, M. T.; Tarquis, A. M.; Morató, M. C.; Saa-Requejo, A.

    2009-04-01

    Although frost can cause considerable crop damage and mitigation practices against forecasted frost exist, frost forecasting technologies have not changed for many years. The paper reports a new method to forecast the monthly number of frost days (FD) for several meteorological stations at Community of Madrid (Spain) based on successive application of two models. The first one is a stochastic model, autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), that forecasts monthly minimum absolute temperature (tmin) and monthly average of minimum temperature (tminav) following Box-Jenkins methodology. The second model relates these monthly temperatures to minimum daily temperature distribution during one month. Three ARIMA models were identified for the time series analyzed with a stational period correspondent to one year. They present the same stational behavior (moving average differenced model) and different non-stational part: autoregressive model (Model 1), moving average differenced model (Model 2) and autoregressive and moving average model (Model 3). At the same time, the results point out that minimum daily temperature (tdmin), for the meteorological stations studied, followed a normal distribution each month with a very similar standard deviation through years. This standard deviation obtained for each station and each month could be used as a risk index for cold months. The application of Model 1 to predict minimum monthly temperatures showed the best FD forecast. This procedure provides a tool for crop managers and crop insurance companies to asses the risk of frost frequency and intensity, so that they can take steps to mitigate against frost damage and estimated the damage that frost would cost. This research was supported by Comunidad de Madrid Research Project 076/92. The cooperation of the Spanish National Meteorological Institute and the Spanish Ministerio de Agricultura, Pesca y Alimentation (MAPA) is gratefully acknowledged.

  2. Models for Train Passenger Forecasting of Java and Sumatra

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sartono

    2017-04-01

    People tend to take public transportation to avoid high traffic, especially in Java. In Jakarta, the number of railway passengers is over than the capacity of the train at peak time. This is an opportunity as well as a challenge. If it is managed well then the company can get high profit. Otherwise, it may lead to disaster. This article discusses models for the train passengers, hence, finding the reasonable models to make a prediction overtimes. The Box-Jenkins method is occupied to develop a basic model. Then, this model is compared to models obtained using exponential smoothing method and regression method. The result shows that Holt-Winters model is better to predict for one-month, three-month, and six-month ahead for the passenger in Java. In addition, SARIMA(1,1,0)(2,0,0) is more accurate for nine-month and twelve-month oversee. On the other hand, for Sumatra passenger forecasting, SARIMA(1,1,1)(0,0,2) gives a better approximation for one-month ahead, and ARIMA model is best for three-month ahead prediction. The rest, Trend Seasonal and Liner Model has the least of RMSE to forecast for six-month, nine-month, and twelve-month ahead.

  3. Short term forecasting of petroleum product demand in France

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cadren, M.

    1998-01-01

    The analysis of petroleum product demand became a privileged thrust of research following the modifications in terms of structure and level of the petroleum markets since eighties. The greatest importance to econometrics models of Energy demand, joint works about nonstationary data, explained the development of error-correction models and the co-integration. In this context, the short term econometrics modelling of petroleum product demand does not only focus on forecasts but also on the measure of the gain acquired from using error-correction techniques and co-integration. It's filling to take the influence of technical improvement and environment pressures into account in econometrics modelling of petroleum products demand. The first part presents the evolution of Energy Demand in France and more particularly the petroleum product demand since 1986. The objective is to determine the main characteristics of each product, which will help us to analyse and validate the econometrics models. The second part focus on the recent developments in times series modelling. We study the problem of nonstationary data and expose different unit root tests. We examine the main approaches to univariate and multivariate modelling with nonstationary data and distinguish the forecasts of the latter's. The third part is intended to applications; its objective is to illustrate the theoretic developments of the second part with a comparison between the performances of different approaches (approach Box and Jenkins, Johansen approach's and structural approach). The models will be applied to the main French petroleum market. The observed asymmetrical demand behaviour is also considered. (author)

  4. ARIMA MODEL BUILDING AND FORECASTING ON IMPORTS AND EXPORTS OF PAKISTAN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmad Farooqi

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available From the day one, mankind has always been interested in to the future. As the civilization advanced with growing sophistication in all phases of life, the need to look in to the future also grew with it. Today every government, public private organizations, as well as an individual would like to predict and plan for the future. In order to attain a better growth in the economy of a country, modeling and forecasting is the most important tool now a day, this can be done by one of the statistical technique called a Time series analysis. In this paper we tried to build a time series model called ARIMA (Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average model with particular reference of Box and Jenkins approach on annually total Imports and Exports of Pakistan from the year 1947 to the year 2013 with useful statistical software R. Validity of the fitted model is tested using standard statistical techniques. The fitted model is then use to forecast some future values of Imports and export of Pakistan. It is found that an ARIMA (2, 2, 2 and ARIMA (1, 2, 2 model looks suitable to forecast the annual Imports and Exports of Pakistan respectively. We also found an increasing trend both in case of Imports and Exports during this study.

  5. Virtual Box

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Davis, Hilary; Skov, Mikael B.; Stougaard, Malthe

    2007-01-01

    . This paper reports on the design, implementation and initial evaluation of Virtual Box. Virtual Box attempts to create a physical and engaging context in order to support reciprocal interactions with expressive content. An implemented version of Virtual Box is evaluated in a location-aware environment...

  6. A Time Series Model for Assessing the Trend and Forecasting the Road Traffic Accident Mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yousefzadeh-Chabok, Shahrokh; Ranjbar-Taklimie, Fatemeh; Malekpouri, Reza; Razzaghi, Alireza

    2016-09-01

    Road traffic accident (RTA) is one of the main causes of trauma and known as a growing public health concern worldwide, especially in developing countries. Assessing the trend of fatalities in the past years and forecasting it enables us to make the appropriate planning for prevention and control. This study aimed to assess the trend of RTAs and forecast it in the next years by using time series modeling. In this historical analytical study, the RTA mortalities in Zanjan Province, Iran, were evaluated during 2007 - 2013. The time series analyses including Box-Jenkins models were used to assess the trend of accident fatalities in previous years and forecast it for the next 4 years. The mean age of the victims was 37.22 years (SD = 20.01). From a total of 2571 deaths, 77.5% (n = 1992) were males and 22.5% (n = 579) were females. The study models showed a descending trend of fatalities in the study years. The SARIMA (1, 1, 3) (0, 1, 0) 12 model was recognized as a best fit model in forecasting the trend of fatalities. Forecasting model also showed a descending trend of traffic accident mortalities in the next 4 years. There was a decreasing trend in the study and the future years. It seems that implementation of some interventions in the recent decade has had a positive effect on the decline of RTA fatalities. Nevertheless, there is still a need to pay more attention in order to prevent the occurrence and the mortalities related to traffic accidents.

  7. A Time Series Model for Assessing the Trend and Forecasting the Road Traffic Accident Mortality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yousefzadeh-Chabok, Shahrokh; Ranjbar-Taklimie, Fatemeh; Malekpouri, Reza; Razzaghi, Alireza

    2016-01-01

    Background Road traffic accident (RTA) is one of the main causes of trauma and known as a growing public health concern worldwide, especially in developing countries. Assessing the trend of fatalities in the past years and forecasting it enables us to make the appropriate planning for prevention and control. Objectives This study aimed to assess the trend of RTAs and forecast it in the next years by using time series modeling. Materials and Methods In this historical analytical study, the RTA mortalities in Zanjan Province, Iran, were evaluated during 2007 - 2013. The time series analyses including Box-Jenkins models were used to assess the trend of accident fatalities in previous years and forecast it for the next 4 years. Results The mean age of the victims was 37.22 years (SD = 20.01). From a total of 2571 deaths, 77.5% (n = 1992) were males and 22.5% (n = 579) were females. The study models showed a descending trend of fatalities in the study years. The SARIMA (1, 1, 3) (0, 1, 0) 12 model was recognized as a best fit model in forecasting the trend of fatalities. Forecasting model also showed a descending trend of traffic accident mortalities in the next 4 years. Conclusions There was a decreasing trend in the study and the future years. It seems that implementation of some interventions in the recent decade has had a positive effect on the decline of RTA fatalities. Nevertheless, there is still a need to pay more attention in order to prevent the occurrence and the mortalities related to traffic accidents. PMID:27800467

  8. Forecasting international tourism demand from the US, Japan and South Korea to Malaysia: A SARIMA approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borhan, Nurbaizura; Arsad, Zainudin

    2014-07-01

    One of the major contributing sectors for Malaysia's economic growth is tourism. The number of international tourist arrivals to Malaysia has been showing an upward trend as a result of several programs and promotion introduced by the Malaysian government to attract international tourists to the country. This study attempts to model and to forecast tourism demand for Malaysia by three selected countries: the US, Japan and South Korea. This study utilized monthly time series data for the period from January 1999 to December 2012 and employed the well-known Box-Jenkins seasonal ARIMA modeling procedures. Not surprisingly the results show the number of tourist arrivals from the three countries contain strong seasonal component as the arrivals strongly dependent on the season in the country of origin. The findings of the study also show that the number of tourist arrivals from the US and South Korea will continue to increase in the near future. Meanwhile the arrivals from Japan is forecasted to show a drop in the near future and as such tourism authorities in Malaysia need to enhance the promotional effort to attract more tourists from Japan to visit Malaysia.

  9. Treatment of Outliers via Interpolation Method with Neural Network Forecast Performances

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wahir, N. A.; Nor, M. E.; Rusiman, M. S.; Gopal, K.

    2018-04-01

    Outliers often lurk in many datasets, especially in real data. Such anomalous data can negatively affect statistical analyses, primarily normality, variance, and estimation aspects. Hence, handling the occurrences of outliers require special attention. Therefore, it is important to determine the suitable ways in treating outliers so as to ensure that the quality of the analyzed data is indeed high. As such, this paper discusses an alternative method to treat outliers via linear interpolation method. In fact, assuming outlier as a missing value in the dataset allows the application of the interpolation method to interpolate the outliers thus, enabling the comparison of data series using forecast accuracy before and after outlier treatment. With that, the monthly time series of Malaysian tourist arrivals from January 1998 until December 2015 had been used to interpolate the new series. The results indicated that the linear interpolation method, which was comprised of improved time series data, displayed better results, when compared to the original time series data in forecasting from both Box-Jenkins and neural network approaches.

  10. Bento Boxes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hasio, Cindy

    2010-01-01

    Bento boxes are common objects in Japanese culture, designed to hold enough lunch for one person. They have individual compartments and sometimes multiple tiers for rice, vegetables, and other side dishes. They are made of materials ranging from wood, cloth, aluminum, or plastic. In general, the greater the number of foods, the better the box is…

  11. Deploying the ATLAS Metadata Interface (AMI) on the cloud with Jenkins

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lambert, F.; Odier, J.; Fulachier, J.; ATLAS Collaboration

    2017-10-01

    The ATLAS Metadata Interface (AMI) is a mature application of more than 15 years of existence. Mainly used by the ATLAS experiment at CERN, it consists of a very generic tool ecosystem for metadata aggregation and cataloguing. AMI is used by the ATLAS production system, therefore the service must guarantee a high level of availability. We describe our monitoring and administration systems, and the Jenkins-based strategy used to dynamically test and deploy cloud OpenStack nodes on demand.

  12. Deploying the ATLAS Metadata Interface (AMI) on the cloud with Jenkins.

    CERN Document Server

    AUTHOR|(SzGeCERN)637120; The ATLAS collaboration; Odier, Jerome; Fulachier, Jerome

    2017-01-01

    The ATLAS Metadata Interface (AMI) is a mature application of more than 15 years of existence. Mainly used by the ATLAS experiment at CERN, it consists of a very generic tool ecosystem for metadata aggregation and cataloguing. AMI is used by the ATLAS production system, therefore the service must guarantee a high level of availability. We describe our monitoring and administration systems, and the Jenkins-based strategy used to dynamically test and deploy cloud OpenStack nodes on demand.

  13. GLASS BOX

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Curtis, Laura

    2008-01-01

    The goals of this effort were to develop Glass Box capabilities to allow for the capturing of analyst activities and the associated data resources, track and log the results of automated processing...

  14. Jenkins-CI, an Open-Source Continuous Integration System, as a Scientific Data and Image-Processing Platform

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moutsatsos, Ioannis K.; Hossain, Imtiaz; Agarinis, Claudia; Harbinski, Fred; Abraham, Yann; Dobler, Luc; Zhang, Xian; Wilson, Christopher J.; Jenkins, Jeremy L.; Holway, Nicholas; Tallarico, John; Parker, Christian N.

    2016-01-01

    High-throughput screening generates large volumes of heterogeneous data that require a diverse set of computational tools for management, processing, and analysis. Building integrated, scalable, and robust computational workflows for such applications is challenging but highly valuable. Scientific data integration and pipelining facilitate standardized data processing, collaboration, and reuse of best practices. We describe how Jenkins-CI, an “off-the-shelf,” open-source, continuous integration system, is used to build pipelines for processing images and associated data from high-content screening (HCS). Jenkins-CI provides numerous plugins for standard compute tasks, and its design allows the quick integration of external scientific applications. Using Jenkins-CI, we integrated CellProfiler, an open-source image-processing platform, with various HCS utilities and a high-performance Linux cluster. The platform is web-accessible, facilitates access and sharing of high-performance compute resources, and automates previously cumbersome data and image-processing tasks. Imaging pipelines developed using the desktop CellProfiler client can be managed and shared through a centralized Jenkins-CI repository. Pipelines and managed data are annotated to facilitate collaboration and reuse. Limitations with Jenkins-CI (primarily around the user interface) were addressed through the selection of helper plugins from the Jenkins-CI community. PMID:27899692

  15. Jenkins-CI, an Open-Source Continuous Integration System, as a Scientific Data and Image-Processing Platform.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moutsatsos, Ioannis K; Hossain, Imtiaz; Agarinis, Claudia; Harbinski, Fred; Abraham, Yann; Dobler, Luc; Zhang, Xian; Wilson, Christopher J; Jenkins, Jeremy L; Holway, Nicholas; Tallarico, John; Parker, Christian N

    2017-03-01

    High-throughput screening generates large volumes of heterogeneous data that require a diverse set of computational tools for management, processing, and analysis. Building integrated, scalable, and robust computational workflows for such applications is challenging but highly valuable. Scientific data integration and pipelining facilitate standardized data processing, collaboration, and reuse of best practices. We describe how Jenkins-CI, an "off-the-shelf," open-source, continuous integration system, is used to build pipelines for processing images and associated data from high-content screening (HCS). Jenkins-CI provides numerous plugins for standard compute tasks, and its design allows the quick integration of external scientific applications. Using Jenkins-CI, we integrated CellProfiler, an open-source image-processing platform, with various HCS utilities and a high-performance Linux cluster. The platform is web-accessible, facilitates access and sharing of high-performance compute resources, and automates previously cumbersome data and image-processing tasks. Imaging pipelines developed using the desktop CellProfiler client can be managed and shared through a centralized Jenkins-CI repository. Pipelines and managed data are annotated to facilitate collaboration and reuse. Limitations with Jenkins-CI (primarily around the user interface) were addressed through the selection of helper plugins from the Jenkins-CI community.

  16. Channel box

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tanabe, Akira.

    1993-01-01

    In a channel box of a BWR type reactor, protruding pads are disposed in axial position on the lateral side of a channel box opposing to a control rod and facing the outer side portion of the control rod in a reactor core loaded state. In the initial loading stage of fuel assemblies, channel fasteners and spacer pads are abutted against each other in the upper portion between the channel boxes sandwiching the control rod therebetween. Further, in the lower portion, a gap as a channel for the movement of the control rod is ensured by the support of fuel support metals. If the channel box is bent toward the control rod along with reactor operation, the pads are abutted against each other to always ensure the gap through which the control rod can move easily. Further, when the pads are brought into contact with each other, the bending deformation of the channel box is corrected by urging to each other. Thus, the control rod can always be moved smoothly to attain reactor safety operation. (N.H.)

  17. Deploying the ATLAS Metadata Interface (AMI) on the cloud with Jenkins

    CERN Document Server

    Lambert, Fabian; The ATLAS collaboration

    2016-01-01

    The ATLAS Metadata Interface (AMI) is a mature application of more than 15 years of existence. Mainly used by the ATLAS experiment at CERN, it consists of a very generic tool ecosystem for metadata aggregation and cataloguing. AMI is used by the ATLAS production system, therefore the service must guarantee a high level of availability. We describe our monitoring system and the Jenkins-based strategy used to dynamically test and deploy cloud OpenStack nodes on demand. Moreover, we describe how to switch to a distant replica in case of downtime.

  18. Jenkins study does not refute BfR statement on the needlessness of diabetic foods

    OpenAIRE

    German Federal Institute for Risk Assessment

    2009-01-01

    In a new study, the Canadian researchers Jenkins et al. again review the effects of diets for individuals suffering from diabetes mellitus type 2. In the study, the effects of a low-carbohydrate diet with a low glycaemic index (GI) compared with a diet high in dietary fibre on the health of patients were examined. 210 diabetics (diabetes mellitus type 2) received one of the two diets for six months. The risk factors for high blood glucose level and cardiovascular diseases were studied. From ...

  19. Glove box

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morita, Atsushi

    1990-01-01

    Wire rope earthquake proof supports having sufficient vibration transmitting and attenuating property are disposed between a fixed floor and the bottom of a glove box in order to improve earthquake proofness of the glove box. The vertical weight of the glove box is supported by support legs slidable on the surface of the fixed floor. The wire rope earthquake-proof supports when undergoing a load, cause stretching and rolling against the external force such as earthquakes, and provide flexible spring support and cause a great damping due to friction with strands. Further, the vertical weight is always supported by the support legs and, when a horizontal weight is applied, the glove box slides on the fixed floor freely with slidable members. In this way, stress concentration generated at joint portions of columns and beams can be moderated greatly and earthquake proofness can be improved. Further, quality control and maintenance for the device is almost unnecessary owing to excellent fatigue-resistant characteristics of the wire rope earthquake proof supports. (N.H.)

  20. Glove boxes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eisert, G.A.

    1979-01-01

    An arrangement for effecting access for performing work within a glove box comprises an elongate arm-length impermeable flexible sleeve, a fitting having an aperture therethrough, adapted to be secured in sealing relation in a port, in a wall of the glove box, the fitting including an outwardly extending lip having at least one continuous groove extending around its outer periphery, one end of the sleeve extending through the aperture in fitting and being folded back against the outer periphery of the lip, a resilient fastening ring securing the sleeve in sealing engagement in the groove, clamping means securing the sleeves to the lip and a glove secured in sealing relation via a bushing to the other end of the sleeve. (author)

  1. Boxing clever

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stanbury, Kate

    1999-09-10

    The outages caused by storms bringing down trees on power transmission lines on Boxing Day 1998 in Scotland, Northern Ireland and Northern England forced ScottishPower to modify its pylon policy. The results of the analysis of pylons requiring work by the Rural Care Team at ScottishPower are summarised, and the identification of the problems caused by the Sitk spruce is reported. The selection of the relocation and clearance remediation option, the policy of replacing one tree with two, the approach to landowners, and the need to consider environmental concerns during the planning of networks are discussed. (UK)

  2. Building a Career in America's Community Colleges: Essays by Rob Jenkins from "The Chronicle of Higher Education"

    Science.gov (United States)

    D'Errico, Deanna, Ed.

    2010-01-01

    This volume collects essays Rob Jenkins originally wrote for "The Two-Year Track" column in "The Chronicle of Higher Education". Drawing on his own experience, Rob has, for many years, been dispensing much-appreciated advice from the frontline--to those considering a community college career as well as those who desire to move up the ranks. This…

  3. The Careful Puppet Master: Reducing risk and fortifying acceptance testing with Jenkins CI

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Jason A.; Richman, Gabriel; DeStefano, John; Pryor, James; Rao, Tejas; Strecker-Kellogg, William; Wong, Tony

    2015-12-01

    Centralized configuration management, including the use of automation tools such as Puppet, can greatly increase provisioning speed and efficiency when configuring new systems or making changes to existing systems, reduce duplication of work, and improve automated processes. However, centralized management also brings with it a level of inherent risk: a single change in just one file can quickly be pushed out to thousands of computers and, if that change is not properly and thoroughly tested and contains an error, could result in catastrophic damage to many services, potentially bringing an entire computer facility offline. Change management procedures can—and should—be formalized in order to prevent such accidents. However, like the configuration management process itself, if such procedures are not automated, they can be difficult to enforce strictly. Therefore, to reduce the risk of merging potentially harmful changes into our production Puppet environment, we have created an automated testing system, which includes the Jenkins CI tool, to manage our Puppet testing process. This system includes the proposed changes and runs Puppet on a pool of dozens of RedHat Enterprise Virtualization (RHEV) virtual machines (VMs) that replicate most of our important production services for the purpose of testing. This paper describes our automated test system and how it hooks into our production approval process for automatic acceptance testing. All pending changes that have been pushed to production must pass this validation process before they can be approved and merged into production.

  4. Box Integrals

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bailey, David H.; Borwein, Jonathan M.; Crandall, Richard E.

    2006-06-01

    By a "box integral" we mean here an expectation $\\langle|\\vec r - \\vec q|^s \\rangle$ where $\\vec r$runs over the unit $n$-cube,with $\\vec q$ and $s$ fixed, explicitly:\\begin eqnarray*&&\\int_01 \\cdots \\int_01 \\left((r_1 - q_1)2 + \\dots+(r_n-q_n)2\\right)^ s/2 \\ dr_1 \\cdots dr_n.\\end eqnarray* The study ofbox integrals leads one naturally into several disparate fields ofanalysis. While previous studies have focused upon symbolic evaluationand asymptotic analysis of special cases (notably $s = 1$), we workherein more generally--in interdisciplinary fashion--developing resultssuch as: (1) analytic continuation (in complex $s$), (2) relevantcombinatorial identities, (3) rapidly converging series, (4) statisticalinferences, (5) connections to mathematical physics, and (6)extreme-precision quadrature techniques appropriate for these integrals.These intuitions and results open up avenues of experimental mathematics,with a view to new conjectures and theorems on integrals of thistype.

  5. Forecast Combinations

    OpenAIRE

    Timmermann, Allan G

    2005-01-01

    Forecast combinations have frequently been found in empirical studies to produce better forecasts on average than methods based on the ex-ante best individual forecasting model. Moreover, simple combinations that ignore correlations between forecast errors often dominate more refined combination schemes aimed at estimating the theoretically optimal combination weights. In this paper we analyse theoretically the factors that determine the advantages from combining forecasts (for example, the d...

  6. Forecast combinations

    OpenAIRE

    Aiolfi, Marco; Capistrán, Carlos; Timmermann, Allan

    2010-01-01

    We consider combinations of subjective survey forecasts and model-based forecasts from linear and non-linear univariate specifications as well as multivariate factor-augmented models. Empirical results suggest that a simple equal-weighted average of survey forecasts outperform the best model-based forecasts for a majority of macroeconomic variables and forecast horizons. Additional improvements can in some cases be gained by using a simple equal-weighted average of survey and model-based fore...

  7. Forecasting Alcohol Consumption in the Czech Republic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tereza Slováčková

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper deals with a forecast of developments in alcohol consumption based on current alcohol consumption per capita (expressed in litres of pure alcohol, and time series extrapolations. Alcohol consumption is to be considered from the vantage point of knowing the specifics of the product and the consequences of its excessive consumption. The predictive methodology makes use of the Box‑Jenkins method; the ARIMA model, taking into account the autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation process, which is a prerequisite for the successful identification of a time series model; model parameter estimation; appropriate transformations of time series; determining the order of differentiation and subsequent verification of the model. The chosen methodology for future trends in alcohol consumptions is a prerequisite for the proposed optional measures to control alcohol consumption in the Czech Republic. Due to the long term nature of the process to draw up and implement alcohol consumption regulation measures, the forecast covers the forthcoming 10 years.

  8. Forecasting Skill

    Science.gov (United States)

    1981-01-01

    for the third and fourth day precipitation forecasts. A marked improvement was shown for the consensus 24 hour precipitation forecast, and small... Zuckerberg (1980) found a small long term skill increase in forecasts of heavy snow events for nine eastern cities. Other National Weather Service...and maximum temperature) are each awarded marks 2, 1, or 0 according to whether the forecast is correct, 8 - *- -**■*- ———"—- - -■ t0m 1 MM—IB I

  9. Short term forecasting of petroleum product demand in France; Modelisation a court terme des consommations de produits petroliers en France

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cadren, M

    1998-06-23

    The analysis of petroleum product demand became a privileged thrust of research following the modifications in terms of structure and level of the petroleum markets since eighties. The greatest importance to econometrics models of Energy demand, joint works about nonstationary data, explained the development of error-correction models and the co-integration. In this context, the short term econometrics modelling of petroleum product demand does not only focus on forecasts but also on the measure of the gain acquired from using error-correction techniques and co-integration. It`s filling to take the influence of technical improvement and environment pressures into account in econometrics modelling of petroleum products demand. The first part presents the evolution of Energy Demand in France and more particularly the petroleum product demand since 1986. The objective is to determine the main characteristics of each product, which will help us to analyse and validate the econometrics models. The second part focus on the recent developments in times series modelling. We study the problem of nonstationary data and expose different unit root tests. We examine the main approaches to univariate and multivariate modelling with nonstationary data and distinguish the forecasts of the latter`s. The third part is intended to applications; its objective is to illustrate the theoretic developments of the second part with a comparison between the performances of different approaches (approach Box and Jenkins, Johansen approach`s and structural approach). The models will be applied to the main French petroleum market. The observed asymmetrical demand behaviour is also considered. (author) 153 refs.

  10. Air tight electrical box

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pringle, C.G.

    1990-08-14

    An air-impervious electrical box to facilitate air sealing a house comprises an integral, rigid box body having a continuous flange, integral with the body, circumscribing and outwardly extending from the sides of the body. This flange is rearwardly positioned behind the front edges of the sides of the body a predetermined distance so that the electrical box may be secured to framing by nailing through the flange. Drywall is then secured to the frame on top of and adjecent to the flange. Such box eliminates the necessity for solid backing and minimizes passage of air through the box and space between the drywall and the box.

  11. Ensemble forecasting of species distributions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Araújo, Miguel B; New, Mark

    2007-01-01

    Concern over implications of climate change for biodiversity has led to the use of bioclimatic models to forecast the range shifts of species under future climate-change scenarios. Recent studies have demonstrated that projections by alternative models can be so variable as to compromise their usefulness for guiding policy decisions. Here, we advocate the use of multiple models within an ensemble forecasting framework and describe alternative approaches to the analysis of bioclimatic ensembles, including bounding box, consensus and probabilistic techniques. We argue that, although improved accuracy can be delivered through the traditional tasks of trying to build better models with improved data, more robust forecasts can also be achieved if ensemble forecasts are produced and analysed appropriately.

  12. A Monte Carlo Investigation of the Box-Cox Model and a Nonlinear Least Squares Alternative.

    OpenAIRE

    Showalter, Mark H

    1994-01-01

    This paper reports a Monte Carlo study of the Box-Cox model and a nonlinear least squares alternative. Key results include the following: the transformation parameter in the Box-Cox model appears to be inconsistently estimated in the presence of conditional heteroskedasticity; the constant term in both the Box-Cox and the nonlinear least squares models is poorly estimated in small samples; conditional mean forecasts tend to underestimate their true value in the Box-Cox model when the transfor...

  13. Evaluation method for the deformation of channel box

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sadaoka, Noriyuki; Kumahora, Hiroki; Miki, Kazuyoshi.

    1990-01-01

    In a BWR type nuclear reactor, a channel box undergoes creep deformation due to the effects of a pressure difference between inside and outside of the channel box and a reactor water temperature, which is accelerated by the irradiation of radiation rays and the extent of which depends on the loading position. Then, there are provided a step of determining the extent of the deformation of the channel box in a burning period in the past, a step of setting the loading position for the channel box in the reactor core, a step of forecasting the extent of the deformation of the channel box based on the data of reactor core characteristics, the date of the physical properties of the materials and the shape of the channel box, the data of the loading pattern of fuel assemblies and the extent of deformation, and a step of estimating whether the forecast deforming extent is within an allowable range or not. As a result, the deforming extent for each of the channel boxes can be forecast and, accordingly, the interference with the control rods can be estimated accurately. (N.H.)

  14. Load forecasting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mak, H.

    1995-01-01

    Slides used in a presentation at The Power of Change Conference in Vancouver, BC in April 1995 about the changing needs for load forecasting were presented. Technological innovations and population increase were said to be the prime driving forces behind the changing needs in load forecasting. Structural changes, market place changes, electricity supply planning changes, and changes in planning objectives were other factors discussed. It was concluded that load forecasting was a form of information gathering, that provided important market intelligence

  15. Exposure Forecaster

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — The Exposure Forecaster Database (ExpoCastDB) is EPA's database for aggregating chemical exposure information and can be used to help with chemical exposure...

  16. Strategic Forecasting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Duus, Henrik Johannsen

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this article is to present an overview of the area of strategic forecasting and its research directions and to put forward some ideas for improving management decisions. Design/methodology/approach: This article is conceptual but also informed by the author’s long contact...... and collaboration with various business firms. It starts by presenting an overview of the area and argues that the area is as much a way of thinking as a toolbox of theories and methodologies. It then spells out a number of research directions and ideas for management. Findings: Strategic forecasting is seen...... as a rebirth of long range planning, albeit with new methods and theories. Firms should make the building of strategic forecasting capability a priority. Research limitations/implications: The article subdivides strategic forecasting into three research avenues and suggests avenues for further research efforts...

  17. Shaping 3-D boxes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stenholt, Rasmus; Madsen, Claus B.

    2011-01-01

    Enabling users to shape 3-D boxes in immersive virtual environments is a non-trivial problem. In this paper, a new family of techniques for creating rectangular boxes of arbitrary position, orientation, and size is presented and evaluated. These new techniques are based solely on position data...

  18. Math in the Box

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeYoung, Mary J.

    2009-01-01

    This article describes how to make an origami paper box and explores the algebra, geometry, and other mathematics that unfolds. A set of origami steps that transforms the paper into an open box can hold mathematical surprises for both students and teachers. An origami lesson can engage students in an open-ended exploration of the relationship…

  19. ALUMINUM BOX BUNDLING PRESS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iosif DUMITRESCU

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available In municipal solid waste, aluminum is the main nonferrous metal, approximately 80- 85% of the total nonferrous metals. The income per ton gained from aluminum recuperation is 20 times higher than from glass, steel boxes or paper recuperation. The object of this paper is the design of a 300 kN press for aluminum box bundling.

  20. Time series analysis of dengue incidence in Guadeloupe, French West Indies: Forecasting models using climate variables as predictors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ruche Guy

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background During the last decades, dengue viruses have spread throughout the Americas region, with an increase in the number of severe forms of dengue. The surveillance system in Guadeloupe (French West Indies is currently operational for the detection of early outbreaks of dengue. The goal of the study was to improve this surveillance system by assessing a modelling tool to predict the occurrence of dengue epidemics few months ahead and thus to help an efficient dengue control. Methods The Box-Jenkins approach allowed us to fit a Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA model of dengue incidence from 2000 to 2006 using clinical suspected cases. Then, this model was used for calculating dengue incidence for the year 2007 compared with observed data, using three different approaches: 1 year-ahead, 3 months-ahead and 1 month-ahead. Finally, we assessed the impact of meteorological variables (rainfall, temperature and relative humidity on the prediction of dengue incidence and outbreaks, incorporating them in the model fitting the best. Results The 3 months-ahead approach was the most appropriate for an effective and operational public health response, and the most accurate (Root Mean Square Error, RMSE = 0.85. Relative humidity at lag-7 weeks, minimum temperature at lag-5 weeks and average temperature at lag-11 weeks were variables the most positively correlated to dengue incidence in Guadeloupe, meanwhile rainfall was not. The predictive power of SARIMA models was enhanced by the inclusion of climatic variables as external regressors to forecast the year 2007. Temperature significantly affected the model for better dengue incidence forecasting (p-value = 0.03 for minimum temperature lag-5, p-value = 0.02 for average temperature lag-11 but not humidity. Minimum temperature at lag-5 weeks was the best climatic variable for predicting dengue outbreaks (RMSE = 0.72. Conclusion Temperature improves dengue outbreaks forecasts

  1. Forecasting metal prices: Do forecasters herd?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pierdzioch, C.; Rulke, J. C.; Stadtmann, G.

    2013-01-01

    We analyze more than 20,000 forecasts of nine metal prices at four different forecast horizons. We document that forecasts are heterogeneous and report that anti-herding appears to be a source of this heterogeneity. Forecaster anti-herding reflects strategic interactions among forecasters...

  2. The analysis of time series: an introduction

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Chatfield, Christopher

    1989-01-01

    .... A variety of practical examples are given to support the theory. The book covers a wide range of time-series topics, including probability models for time series, Box-Jenkins forecasting, spectral analysis, linear systems and system identification...

  3. Potential barge transportation for inbound corn and grain

    Science.gov (United States)

    1997-12-31

    This research develops a model for estimating future barge and rail rates for decision making. The Box-Jenkins and the Regression Analysis with ARIMA errors forecasting methods were used to develop appropriate models for determining future rates. A s...

  4. Pion in a box

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bietenholz, W.; Rakow, P.E.L.; Schierholz, G.; Regensburg Univ.

    2010-02-01

    The residual mass of the pion in a finite spatial box at vanishing quark masses is computed with two flavors of dynamical clover fermions. The result is compared with predictions of chiral perturbation theory in the δ regime. (orig.)

  5. Infectious disease and boxing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    King, Osric S

    2009-10-01

    There are no unique boxing diseases but certain factors contributing to the spread of illnesses apply strongly to the boxer, coach, and the training facility. This article examines the nature of the sport of boxing and its surrounding environment, and the likelihood of spread of infection through airborne, contact, or blood-borne routes of transmission. Evidence from other sports such as running, wrestling, and martial arts is included to help elucidate the pathophysiologic elements that could be identified in boxers.

  6. [Boxing: traumatology and prevention].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cabanis, Emmanuel-Alain; Iba-Zizen, Marie-Thérèse; Perez, Georges; Senegas, Xavier; Furgoni, Julien; Pineau, Jean-Claude; Louquet, Jean-Louis; Henrion, Roger

    2010-10-01

    In 1986, a surgeon who, as an amateur boxer himself was concerned with boxers' health, approached a pioneering Parisian neuroimaging unit. Thus began a study in close cooperation with the French Boxing Federation, spanning 25 years. In a first series of 52 volunteer boxers (13 amateurs and 39 professionals), during which MRI gradually replaced computed tomography, ten risk factors were identified, which notably included boxing style: only one of 40 "stylists" with a good boxing technique had cortical atrophy (4.5 %), compared to 15 % of "sloggers". Changes to the French Boxing Federation rules placed the accent on medical prevention. The second series, of 247 boxers (81 amateurs and 266 professionals), showed a clear improvement, as lesions were suspected in 14 individuals, of which only 4 (1.35 %) were probably due to boxing. The third and fourth series were part of a protocol called "Brain-Boxing-Ageing", which included 76 boxers (11 having suffered KOs) and 120 MRI scans, with reproducible CT and MRI acquisitions (9 sequences with 1.5 T then 3 T, and CT). MRI anomalies secondary to boxing were found in 11 % of amateurs and 38 % of professionals (atrophy, high vascular T2 signal areas, 2 cases of post-KO subdural bleeding). CT revealed sinus damage in 13 % of the amateurs and 19 % of the professionals. The risk of acute and chronic facial and brain damage was underline, along with detailed precautionary measures (organization of bouts, role of the referee and ringside doctor, and application of French Boxing Federation rules).

  7. Nonneurologic emergencies in boxing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coletta, Domenic F

    2009-10-01

    Professional boxing has done an admirable job in promoting safety standards in its particular sport. However, injuries occur during the normal course of competition and, unfortunately, an occasional life-threatening emergency may arise. Although most common medical emergencies in boxing are injuries from closed head trauma, in this article those infrequent but potentially catastrophic nonneurologic conditions are reviewed along with some less serious emergencies that the physician must be prepared to address.

  8. Forecasting the Reference Evapotranspiration Using Time Series Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Zare Abyaneh

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Reference evapotranspiration is one of the most important factors in irrigation timing and field management. Moreover, reference evapotranspiration forecasting can play a vital role in future developments. Therefore in this study, the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA model was used to forecast the reference evapotranspiration time series in the Esfahan, Semnan, Shiraz, Kerman, and Yazd synoptic stations. Materials and Methods: In the present study in all stations (characteristics of the synoptic stations are given in Table 1, the meteorological data, including mean, maximum and minimum air temperature, relative humidity, dry-and wet-bulb temperature, dew-point temperature, wind speed, precipitation, air vapor pressure and sunshine hours were collected from the Islamic Republic of Iran Meteorological Organization (IRIMO for the 41 years from 1965 to 2005. The FAO Penman-Monteith equation was used to calculate the monthly reference evapotranspiration in the five synoptic stations and the evapotranspiration time series were formed. The unit root test was used to identify whether the time series was stationary, then using the Box-Jenkins method, seasonal ARIMA models were applied to the sample data. Table 1. The geographical location and climate conditions of the synoptic stations Station\tGeographical location\tAltitude (m\tMean air temperature (°C\tMean precipitation (mm\tClimate, according to the De Martonne index classification Longitude (E\tLatitude (N Annual\tMin. and Max. Esfahan\t51° 40'\t32° 37'\t1550.4\t16.36\t9.4-23.3\t122\tArid Semnan\t53° 33'\t35° 35'\t1130.8\t18.0\t12.4-23.8\t140\tArid Shiraz\t52° 36'\t29° 32'\t1484\t18.0\t10.2-25.9\t324\tSemi-arid Kerman\t56° 58'\t30° 15'\t1753.8\t15.6\t6.7-24.6\t142\tArid Yazd\t54° 17'\t31° 54'\t1237.2\t19.2\t11.8-26.0\t61\tArid Results and Discussion: The monthly meteorological data were used as input for the Ref-ET software and monthly reference

  9. Neural network versus classical time series forecasting models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nor, Maria Elena; Safuan, Hamizah Mohd; Shab, Noorzehan Fazahiyah Md; Asrul, Mohd; Abdullah, Affendi; Mohamad, Nurul Asmaa Izzati; Lee, Muhammad Hisyam

    2017-05-01

    Artificial neural network (ANN) has advantage in time series forecasting as it has potential to solve complex forecasting problems. This is because ANN is data driven approach which able to be trained to map past values of a time series. In this study the forecast performance between neural network and classical time series forecasting method namely seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average models was being compared by utilizing gold price data. Moreover, the effect of different data preprocessing on the forecast performance of neural network being examined. The forecast accuracy was evaluated using mean absolute deviation, root mean square error and mean absolute percentage error. It was found that ANN produced the most accurate forecast when Box-Cox transformation was used as data preprocessing.

  10. Putting Media Literacy Education in Perspective of Theory of "Participatory Culture" : The case of Henry Jenkins (2009) Confronting the Challenges of Participatory Culture

    OpenAIRE

    Sunagawa, Seiji

    2010-01-01

    In this report, I took a viewpoint of the "participatory culture" of Henry Jenkins (2009) into account and argued what the literacy of the digital media. I clarified what kind of culture "participatory culture" is and what one participated with how. The support system between peers in the "participatory culture", have the community which can feel relieved where the system letting each other take an equal viewpoint. I made clear that it was a problem of the media literacy education how to buil...

  11. The BOXES Methodology Black Box Dynamic Control

    CERN Document Server

    Russell, David W

    2012-01-01

    Robust control mechanisms customarily require knowledge of the system’s describing equations which may be of the high order differential type.  In order to produce these equations, mathematical models can often be derived and correlated with measured dynamic behavior.  There are two flaws in this approach one is the level of inexactness introduced by linearizations and the other when no model is apparent.  Several years ago a new genre of control systems came to light that are much less dependent on differential models such as fuzzy logic and genetic algorithms. Both of these soft computing solutions require quite considerable a priori system knowledge to create a control scheme and sometimes complicated training program before they can be implemented in a real world dynamic system. Michie and Chambers’ BOXES methodology created a black box system that was designed to control a mechanically unstable system with very little a priori system knowledge, linearization or approximation.  All the method need...

  12. Probabilistic Forecasting for On-line Operation of Urban Drainage Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Löwe, Roland

    This thesis deals with the generation of probabilistic forecasts in urban hydrology. In particular, we focus on the case of runoff forecasting for real-time control (RTC) on horizons of up to two hours. For the generation of probabilistic on-line runoff forecasts, we apply the stochastic grey...... and forecasts have on on-line runoff forecast quality. Finally, we implement the stochastic grey-box model approach in a real-world real-time control (RTC) setup and study how RTC can benefit from a dynamic quantification of runoff forecast uncertainty....

  13. Eye trauma in boxing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corrales, Gustavo; Curreri, Anthony

    2009-10-01

    In boxing, along with a few other sports, trauma is inherent to the nature of the sport; therefore it is considered a high-risk sport for ocular injuries. The long-term morbidity of ocular injuries suffered by boxers is difficult to estimate due to the lack of structured long-term follow-up of these athletes. Complications of blunt ocular trauma may develop years after the athlete has retired from the ring and is no longer considered to be at risk for boxing-related injuries. This article describes the wide range of eye injuries a boxer can sustain, and their immediate and long-term clinical management.

  14. Opto-Box

    CERN Document Server

    Bertsche, David; The ATLAS collaboration; Welch, Steven; Smith, Dale Shane; Che, Siinn; Gan, K.K.; Boyd, George Russell Jr

    2015-01-01

    The opto-box is a custom mini-crate for housing optical modules, which process and transfer optoelectronic data. The system tightly integrates electrical, mechanical, and thermal functionality into a small package of size 35x10x8 cm^3. Special attention was given to ensure proper shielding, grounding, cooling, high reliability, and environmental tolerance. The custom modules, which incorporate Application Specific Integrated Circuits (ASICs), were developed through a cycle of rigorous testing and redesign. In total, fourteen opto-boxes have been installed and loaded with modules on the ATLAS detector. They are currently in operation as part of the LHC run 2 data read-out chain.

  15. Teaching with Box Tops.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raiser, Lynne; D'Zamko, Mary Elizabeth

    1984-01-01

    Using environmental materials (such as the phone book and placemats from fast food restaurants) can be a motivating way to teach learning disabled students skills and concepts, as shown in an approach to reading, math, science and nutrition, and social studies instruction using a JELL-O brand gelatin box. (CL)

  16. Glove box posting system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McIntosh, A.E.

    1981-01-01

    A system for posting objects into closed containers, such as glove boxes, is described in which the bag used, preferably made of plastic, does not have to be fitted and sealed by the operator during each posting operation. (U.K.)

  17. Mystery Box Marvels

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santos, Joel; Centurio, Tina

    2012-01-01

    What happens in the first week of school could very well set the stage for the rest of the school year. Setting high standards for science activities based in inquiry can start on the first day of science class and develop as the year unfolds. With the use of simple, readily available, inexpensive materials, an efficient mystery box lesson can be…

  18. Ocular complications of boxing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bianco, M; Vaiano, A; Colella, F; Coccimiglio, F; Moscetti, M; Palmieri, V; Focosi, F; Zeppilli, P; Vinger, P

    2005-01-01

    Objectives: To investigate the prevalence of ocular injuries in a large population of boxers over a period of 16 years, in particular, the most severe lesions that may be vision threatening. Methods: Clinical records of the medical archive of the Italian Boxing Federation were analysed. A total of 1032 boxers were examined from February 1982 to October 1998. A complete ophthalmological history was available for 956, who formed the study population (a total of 10 697 examinations). The following data were collected: age when started boxing; duration of competitive boxing career (from the date of the first bout); weight category; a thorough ocular history. The following investigations were carried out: measurement of visual acuity and visual fields, anterior segment inspection, applanation tonometry, gonioscopy, and examination of ocular fundus. Eighty age matched healthy subjects, who had never boxed, formed the control group. Results: Of the 956 boxers examined, 428 were amateur (44.8%) and 528 professional (55.2%). The median age at first examination was 23.1 (4.3) years (range 15–36). The prevalence of conjunctival, corneal, lenticular, vitreal, ocular papilla, and retinal alterations in the study population was 40.9% compared with 3.1% in the control group (p⩽0.0001). The prevalence of serious ocular findings (angle, lens, macula, and peripheral retina alterations) was 5.6% in boxers and 3.1% in controls (NS). Conclusions: Boxing does not result in a higher prevalence of severe ocular lesions than in the general population. However, the prevalence of milder lesions (in particular with regard to the conjunctiva and cornea) is noteworthy, justifying the need for adequate ophthalmological surveillance. PMID:15665199

  19. kosh Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  20. kpdt Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  1. kewr Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  2. kiso Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  3. kpga Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  4. kbkw Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  5. ktcl Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  6. pgwt Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  7. kpsp Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  8. kbih Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  9. kdnl Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  10. kart Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  11. kilm Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  12. kpne Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  13. kabi Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  14. ptpn Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  15. kblf Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  16. panc Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  17. kpbi Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  18. kgdv Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  19. kcmx Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  20. kdls Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

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  11. kotm Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  12. khqm Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  13. kabr Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  14. klal Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  15. kelp Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  16. kecg Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  17. khbg Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  18. kpbf Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  19. konp Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  20. pkwa Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  1. ktvf Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  2. paga Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  3. khks Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  4. kdsm Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  5. kpsm Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  6. kgrb Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  7. kgmu Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  8. papg Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  9. kbgm Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  10. pamc Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  11. klrd Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  12. ksan Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  13. patk Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  14. kowb Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  15. klru Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  16. kfxe Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  17. kjct Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  18. kcrg Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  19. paaq Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  20. kaex Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  1. klbx Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  2. kmia Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  3. kpit Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  4. kcrw Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  5. paen Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  6. kast Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  7. kuin Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  8. kmht Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  9. kcys Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  10. kflo Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  11. pakn Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  12. pabt Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  13. krdg Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  14. khdn Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  15. kjac Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  16. kphx Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  17. Robust forecast comparison

    OpenAIRE

    Jin, Sainan; Corradi, Valentina; Swanson, Norman

    2015-01-01

    Forecast accuracy is typically measured in terms of a given loss function. However, as a consequence of the use of misspecified models in multiple model comparisons, relative forecast rankings are loss function dependent. This paper addresses this issue by using a novel criterion for forecast evaluation which is based on the entire distribution of forecast errors. We introduce the concepts of general-loss (GL) forecast superiority and convex-loss (CL) forecast superiority, and we establish a ...

  18. Forecaster Behaviour and Bias in Macroeconomic Forecasts

    OpenAIRE

    Roy Batchelor

    2007-01-01

    This paper documents the presence of systematic bias in the real GDP and inflation forecasts of private sector forecasters in the G7 economies in the years 1990–2005. The data come from the monthly Consensus Economics forecasting service, and bias is measured and tested for significance using parametric fixed effect panel regressions and nonparametric tests on accuracy ranks. We examine patterns across countries and forecasters to establish whether the bias reflects the inefficient use of i...

  19. Weather forecast

    CERN Document Server

    Courtier, P

    1994-02-07

    Weather prediction is performed using the numerical model of the atmosphere evolution.The evolution equations are derived from the Navier Stokes equation for the adiabatic part but the are very much complicated by the change of phase of water, the radiation porocess and the boundary layer.The technique used operationally is described. Weather prediction is an initial value problem and accurate initial conditions need to be specified. Due to the small number of observations available (105 ) as compared to the dimension of the model state variable (107),the problem is largely underdetermined. Techniques of optimal control and inverse problems are used and have been adapted to the large dimension of our problem. our problem.The at mosphere is a chaotic system; the implication for weather prediction is discussed. Ensemble prediction is used operationally and the technique for generating initial conditions which lead to a numerical divergence of the subsequent forecasts is described.

  20. Decommissioning a small glove box

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bond, R.D.; McSherry, K.

    1985-11-01

    An account is given of dismantling a fuel fabrication glove box using simple tooling. The fissile content of the box was first measured by several non-destructive techniques. After cleaning, the box was dismantled using hand tools and finally packed for disposal. A record of operator radiation doses, the time taken for each stage of the operation and packing information is given. (author)

  1. Opto-Box

    CERN Document Server

    AUTHOR|(INSPIRE)INSPIRE-00377159; The ATLAS collaboration

    2016-01-01

    The opto-box is a custom mini-crate for housing optical modules, which process and transfer optoelectronic data. Many novel solutions were developed for the custom design and manufacturing. The system tightly integrates electrical, mechanical, and thermal functionality into a small package of size 35x10x8 cm$^{3}$. Special attention was given to ensure proper shielding, grounding, cooling, high reliability, and environmental tolerance. The custom modules, which incorporate Application Specific Integrated Circuits (ASICs), were developed through a cycle of rigorous testing and redesign. In total, fourteen opto-boxes have been installed and loaded with modules on the ATLAS detector. They are currently in operation as part of the LHC run 2 data read-out chain.

  2. Boxed Permutation Pattern Matching

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Amit, Mika; Bille, Philip; Cording, Patrick Hagge

    2016-01-01

    the goal is to only find the boxed subsequences of T that are order-isomorphic to P. This problem was introduced by Bruner and Lackner who showed that it can be solved in O(n3) time. Cho et al. [CPM 2015] gave an O(n2m) time algorithm and improved it to O(n2 logm). In this paper we present a solution...

  3. The Box Method

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Peter Vilhelm

    The velocity level in a room ventilated by jet ventilation is strongly influenced by the supply conditions. The momentum flow in the supply jets controls the air movement in the room and, therefore, it is very important that the inlet conditions and the numerical method can generate a satisfactor...... description of this momentum flow. The Box Method is a practical method for the description of an Air Terminal Device which will save grid points and ensure the right level of the momentum flow....

  4. Number 13 / Part I. Music. 6. Requiem by Karl Jenkins. An Analytical Approach to The Interweaving of Various Traditions in Music

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iațeșen Loredana Viorica

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available In the diverse space of contemporary music, the fascinating and controversial personality of the Welsh composer Karl Jenkins, which is surprising from several perspectives, stands out. Open to assimilating and processing music from various sources (academic, liturgical, folk, entertainment, oriental, exotic, the all-round musician Karl Jenkins impresses the public with unexpected artistic choices, giving up the hypostasis of instrumentalist of the jazz-rock band Nucleus and of the group Softmachine in favour of the postmodern creator he has become today, synthetizing trends from musical compositions of the last decades of the 20th century. Once with the return to the functional system, either through minimalism or through neo-romanticism, the artist has successfully covered a potential sonority path of modern opposites, also evoking references to creative models of the past. We are referring to the musical valorizing of the sacred in a synthetic vision between tradition and innovation, in the works included in the Adiemus cycle, in the opus choir Missa for Peace and, more particularly, in the Requiem (2005, a significant score in the contemporaneity. The manner in which the composer, while resorting to a musical genre originating from the Roman Catholic cult and drawing on the liturgical text of the Mass for the dead, inserted Japanese poetry, written following the structure of haiku, belonging to representative authors - Gozan Koshigaya, Issho Kosughi, Hokusai Katsushika, Kaga-no-Chiyo, is highly surprising. This study aims to highlight the interweaving imagined by Karl Jenkins between the two cultures as well as to conduct a semantic analysis of an opus in which the relationships between music and words entail a highly emotional response.

  5. Analysis of Tendencies Towards Changes in Temperatures of Railway Vehicle Axle Boxes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olegas Lunys

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available The paper analyzes variations in the temperature of axle-box heating of railroad rolling stock considering two modes of the train - driving and parking position. Additionally, the article describes the influence of the axle load and season on the heat of the axle-box, forecasts intolerable residual resources and explains a possibility of detecting likely breakage at the very beginning of defects. The paper also deals with scientific literature related to axle-box heating and focuses on the conducted practical and theoretical experiments. The carried out research has established the rates of operating heating and critical heating. The application of numerical values for the algorithm of automatic control devices could help with detecting the breakdowns of the axle-box before they reach a critical state and assist in forecasting residual operating resources.

  6. National Forecast Charts

    Science.gov (United States)

    code. Press enter or select the go button to submit request Local forecast by "City, St" or Prediction Center on Twitter NCEP Quarterly Newsletter WPC Home Analyses and Forecasts National Forecast to all federal, state, and local government web resources and services. National Forecast Charts

  7. Are Forecast Updates Progressive?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    C-L. Chang (Chia-Lin); Ph.H.B.F. Franses (Philip Hans); M.J. McAleer (Michael)

    2010-01-01

    textabstractMacro-economic forecasts typically involve both a model component, which is replicable, as well as intuition, which is non-replicable. Intuition is expert knowledge possessed by a forecaster. If forecast updates are progressive, forecast updates should become more accurate, on average,

  8. Forecasting freight flows

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lyk-Jensen, Stéphanie

    2011-01-01

    Trade patterns and transport markets are changing as a result of the growth and globalization of international trade, and forecasting future freight flow has to rely on trade forecasts. Forecasting freight flows is critical for matching infrastructure supply to demand and for assessing investment...... constitute a valuable input to freight models for forecasting future capacity problems.......Trade patterns and transport markets are changing as a result of the growth and globalization of international trade, and forecasting future freight flow has to rely on trade forecasts. Forecasting freight flows is critical for matching infrastructure supply to demand and for assessing investment...

  9. Outside the box

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pichon, Max

    2011-01-01

    Full text: Queensland-based Hydrasyst wants to take its motto of 'Do more with less' into the greywater sector with a new water recycling and energy recovery technology launched in November, called The Grey Box. The company is initially targeting large industrial laundries as they are major generators of greywater and heavy energy users, but it has ambitions well beyond that. The average commercial laundry consumes 1-5ML of water a week, using about 16 litres for every 1kg of clothing washed. Hydrasyst director Stephen Balemi said The Grey Box can slash the volume by 80 per cent. While he was reluctant to disclose too much technical detail, he claimed it is the only technology serving the $1 billion a year laundry sector that combines microfiltration / ultrafiltration membrane technology and energy reduction components. The heart of the system is a ceramic hollow fibre membrane. Balemi said it produces higher filtrate quality than competitors, meaning the recycled water can be reused more often, and can process feed water of up to 70°C compared to typical ultrafiltration membranes that cap out at about 38°C. This means the recycled water can be reused at higher temperatures, with the heat in it recovered by a precise steam heater built into The Grey Box. “As an overall measure, it saves 80 per cent of the water that is processed and saves 20 per cent of the energy,” Balemi said. Four systems have already been installed, with one going into a large commercial laundry in south Queensland and another to AMP's state-of-the-art 6 Green Star building in Brisbane. “We can modify them slightly to suit the industry, depending on the quality of raw water they are trying to recycle and also depending on the size of the project,,” said Balemi. Where many organisations build systems to specification, The Grey Box is offered in three standard sizes: the HY20 (20kL per day, based on a 10 hour day), HY80 (80kL per day) and HY130 (130kL per day). They can be used

  10. Microclimate boxes for panel paintings

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wadum, Jørgen

    1998-01-01

    The use of microclimate boxes to protect vulnerable panel paintings is, therefore, not a new phenomenon of the past two or three decades. Rather, it has been a concern for conservators and curators to protect these objects of art at home and in transit since the end of the nineteenth century....... The increased number of travelling exhibitions in recent years has heightened the need to protect paintings during circulation (Thomson 1961; Mecklenburg 1991). The use and design of microclimate boxes have been evolving since 1892. These boxes may be divided into three broad groups: those using an active...... buffer material to stabilize the internal RH, a more recent box containing no added buffer material, and, in recent times, boxes with an altered gas content. Another concern is the appearance (aesthetics) of the box....

  11. Flood forecasting and uncertainty of precipitation forecasts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kobold, Mira; Suselj, Kay

    2004-01-01

    The timely and accurate flood forecasting is essential for the reliable flood warning. The effectiveness of flood warning is dependent on the forecast accuracy of certain physical parameters, such as the peak magnitude of the flood, its timing, location and duration. The conceptual rainfall - runoff models enable the estimation of these parameters and lead to useful operational forecasts. The accurate rainfall is the most important input into hydrological models. The input for the rainfall can be real time rain-gauges data, or weather radar data, or meteorological forecasted precipitation. The torrential nature of streams and fast runoff are characteristic for the most of the Slovenian rivers. Extensive damage is caused almost every year- by rainstorms affecting different regions of Slovenia' The lag time between rainfall and runoff is very short for Slovenian territory and on-line data are used only for now casting. Forecasted precipitations are necessary for hydrological forecast for some days ahead. ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) gives general forecast for several days ahead while more detailed precipitation data with limited area ALADIN/Sl model are available for two days ahead. There is a certain degree of uncertainty using such precipitation forecasts based on meteorological models. The variability of precipitation is very high in Slovenia and the uncertainty of ECMWF predicted precipitation is very large for Slovenian territory. ECMWF model can predict precipitation events correctly, but underestimates amount of precipitation in general The average underestimation is about 60% for Slovenian region. The predictions of limited area ALADIN/Si model up to; 48 hours ahead show greater applicability in hydrological forecasting. The hydrological models are sensitive to precipitation input. The deviation of runoff is much bigger than the rainfall deviation. Runoff to rainfall error fraction is about 1.6. If spatial and time distribution

  12. Box-particle intensity filter

    OpenAIRE

    Schikora, Marek; Gning, Amadou; Mihaylova, Lyudmila; Cremers, Daniel; Koch, Wofgang; Streit, Roy

    2012-01-01

    This paper develops a novel approach for multi-target tracking, called box-particle intensity filter (box-iFilter). The approach is able to cope with unknown clutter, false alarms and estimates the unknown number of targets. Furthermore, it is capable of dealing with three sources of uncertainty: stochastic, set-theoretic and data association uncertainty. The box-iFilter reduces the number of particles significantly, which improves the runtime considerably. The low particle number enables thi...

  13. The Classroom Animal: Box Turtles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kramer, David C.

    1986-01-01

    Provides basic information on the anatomy, physiology, behaviors, and distribution patterns of the box turtle. Offers suggestions for the turtle's care and maintenance in a classroom environment. (ML)

  14. Boxing-related head injuries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jayarao, Mayur; Chin, Lawrence S; Cantu, Robert C

    2010-10-01

    Fatalities in boxing are most often due to traumatic brain injury that occurs in the ring. In the past 30 years, significant improvements in ringside and medical equipment, safety, and regulations have resulted in a dramatic reduction in the fatality rate. Nonetheless, the rate of boxing-related head injuries, particularly concussions, remains unknown, due in large part to its variability in clinical presentation. Furthermore, the significance of repeat concussions sustained when boxing is just now being understood. In this article, we identify the clinical manifestations, pathophysiology, and management of boxing-related head injuries, and discuss preventive strategies to reduce head injuries sustained by boxers.

  15. Acsys in a box

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Briegel, C.; Finstrom, D.; Hendricks, B.; King, C.; Lackey, S.; Neswold, R.; Nicklaus, D.; Patrick, J.; Petrov, A.; Rechenmacher, R.; Schumann, C.; Smedinghoff, J.

    2012-01-01

    The Accelerator Control System (ACSYS) at Fermilab has evolved to enable this relatively large control system to be encapsulated into a 'box' such as a laptop. The goal was to provide a platform isolated from the 'online' control system. This platform can be used internally for making major upgrades and modifications without impacting operations. It also provides a stand-alone environment for research and development including a turnkey control system for collaborators. Over time, the code base running on Scientific Linux has enabled all the salient features of the Fermilab's control system to be captured in an off-the-shelf laptop. The anticipated additional benefits of packaging the system include improved maintenance, reliability, documentation, and future enhancements. (authors)

  16. Boxing with Bell

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2000-04-01

    When Protech Mining moved onto a greenfields site near Ermelo in mid-November last year to start work on the establishment of a box cut for an underground bituminous coal and anthracite mine for Delta Colliery, the company could not have foreseen the difficulties it was to encounter from the unusually high rainfall which fell, almost without abatement, from the time the first sod was turned. Production at the so called Mooiplants mine will commence in March 2001. Mining will take place at a maximum depth of 47 m and coal will be extracted from underground by two conveyor belts and stockpiled. Bell B40 CM mining trucks and an 18 Bell B20 articulated dump truck will be in the haulage fleet. 3 photos.

  17. Fuel cycle forecasting - there are forecasts and there are forecasts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Puechl, K H

    1975-12-01

    The FORECAST-NUCLEAR computer program described recognizes that forecasts are made to answer a variety of questions and, therefore, that no single forecast is universally appropriate. Also, it recognizes that no two individuals will completely agree as to the input data that are appropriate for obtaining an answer to even a single simple question. Accordingly, the program was written from a utilitarian standpoint: it allows working with multiple projections; data inputting is simple to allow game-playing; computation time is short to minimize the cost of 'what if' assessements; and detail is internally carried to allow meaningful analysis.

  18. Fuel cycle forecasting - there are forecasts and there are forecasts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Puechl, K.H.

    1975-01-01

    The FORECAST-NUCLEAR computer program described recognizes that forecasts are made to answer a variety of questions and, therefore, that no single forecast is universally appropriate. Also, it recognizes that no two individuals will completely agree as to the input data that are appropriate for obtaining an answer to even a single simple question. Accordingly, the program was written from a utilitarian standpoint: it allows working with multiple projections; data inputting is simple to allow game-playing; computation time is short to minimize the cost of 'what if' assessements; and detail is internally carried to allow meaningful analysis. (author)

  19. 1994 Solid waste forecast container volume summary

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Templeton, K.J.; Clary, J.L.

    1994-09-01

    This report describes a 30-year forecast of the solid waste volumes by container type. The volumes described are low-level mixed waste (LLMW) and transuranic/transuranic mixed (TRU/TRUM) waste. These volumes and their associated container types will be generated or received at the US Department of Energy Hanford Site for storage, treatment, and disposal at Westinghouse Hanford Company's Solid Waste Operations Complex (SWOC) during a 30-year period from FY 1994 through FY 2023. The forecast data for the 30-year period indicates that approximately 307,150 m 3 of LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste will be managed by the SWOC. The main container type for this waste is 55-gallon drums, which will be used to ship 36% of the LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste. The main waste generator forecasting the use of 55-gallon drums is Past Practice Remediation. This waste will be generated by the Environmental Restoration Program during remediation of Hanford's past practice sites. Although Past Practice Remediation is the primary generator of 55-gallon drums, most waste generators are planning to ship some percentage of their waste in 55-gallon drums. Long-length equipment containers (LECs) are forecasted to contain 32% of the LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste. The main waste generator forecasting the use of LECs is the Long-Length Equipment waste generator, which is responsible for retrieving contaminated long-length equipment from the tank farms. Boxes are forecasted to contain 21% of the waste. These containers are primarily forecasted for use by the Environmental Restoration Operations--D ampersand D of Surplus Facilities waste generator. This waste generator is responsible for the solid waste generated during decontamination and decommissioning (D ampersand D) of the facilities currently on the Surplus Facilities Program Plan. The remaining LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste volume is planned to be shipped in casks and other miscellaneous containers

  20. What Makes a Better Box?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moyer, Richard; Everett, Susan

    2010-01-01

    Every morning, many Americans start their day with a bowl of cereal. Some spend time while they eat breakfast reading the back of the cereal box, but few consider its size, shape, and construction, or realize that it was designed by an engineer. This article describes a lesson in which students design, build, and critique cereal boxes. The lesson…

  1. Spirit Boxes: Expressions of Culture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeMuro, Ted

    1984-01-01

    After studying the culture and art of the ancient civilizations of South America, Mesopotamia, Greece, and Egypt, secondary level art students made spirit boxes as expressions of the various cultures. How to make the boxes and how to prepare the face molds are described. (RM)

  2. Relativistic particle in a box

    OpenAIRE

    Alberto, P.; Fiolhais, Carlos; Gil, Victor

    1996-01-01

    The problem of a relativistic spin 1/2 particle confined to a one-dimensional box is solved in a way that resembles closely the solution of the well known quantum-mechanical textbook problem of a non-relativistic particle in a box. The energy levels and probability density are computed and compared with the non-relativistic case

  3. Robust Approaches to Forecasting

    OpenAIRE

    Jennifer Castle; David Hendry; Michael P. Clements

    2014-01-01

    We investigate alternative robust approaches to forecasting, using a new class of robust devices, contrasted with equilibrium correction models. Their forecasting properties are derived facing a range of likely empirical problems at the forecast origin, including measurement errors, implulses, omitted variables, unanticipated location shifts and incorrectly included variables that experience a shift. We derive the resulting forecast biases and error variances, and indicate when the methods ar...

  4. Inflation Forecast Contracts

    OpenAIRE

    Gersbach, Hans; Hahn, Volker

    2012-01-01

    We introduce a new type of incentive contract for central bankers: inflation forecast contracts, which make central bankers’ remunerations contingent on the precision of their inflation forecasts. We show that such contracts enable central bankers to influence inflation expectations more effectively, thus facilitating more successful stabilization of current inflation. Inflation forecast contracts improve the accuracy of inflation forecasts, but have adverse consequences for output. On balanc...

  5. Channel box dimension measuring method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oshima, Hirotake; Jo, Hiroto.

    1994-01-01

    The present invention provides a method for measuring the entire length of a channel box of a fuel assembly of a BWR type reactor. Namely, four sensors are used as one set that generate ultrasonic waves from oblique upper portion, oblique lower portion, upper portion and lower portion of the channel box respectively. The distances between the four sensors and each of the portions of the channel box are measured respectively for both of a reference member and a member to be measured. The entire length of the channel box is measured by calculating the measured values and the angles of the obliquely disposed sensors according to a predetermined formula. According to the method of the present invention, the inclination of the channel box to be measured can be corrected. In addition, accuracy of the measurement is improved and the measuring time is saved as well as the measuring device and operation can be simplified. (I.S.)

  6. Thinking Inside the Box

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boeheim, Charles T.

    2007-01-01

    In early 2007, SLAC was faced with a shortage of both electrical power and cooling in the main computer building, at the same time that the BaBar collaboration needed a new cluster of 250 batch machines installed. A number of different options were explored for the expansion. Provision of additional electrical power to the building was estimated to take one to two years, and cost several million dollars; additional cooling was even worse. Space in a Silicon Valley co-location facilities was reasonable on a one-year timescale, but broke even in costs by the end of three years, and were more expensive after that. There were also unresolved questions about the affects of additional latency from an offsite compute cluster to the onsite disk servers. The option of converting existing experimental hall space into computer space was estimated at one year, with uncertain availability. An option to aggressively replace several existing clusters with more power-efficient equipment was studied closely, but was disruptive to continued operations, expensive, and didn't provide any additional headroom. Finally, the installation of a Sun Project Blackbox (PBB) unit was selected as providing the capacity on a timescale of six months for a reasonable cost with minimal disruption to service. SLAC obtained and installed a beta unit and have been running it in production since September 2007. The experiences described are with the Early Access version of the PBB. The production version of the box has engineering changes based in part on our experiences

  7. Electricity demand forecasting techniques

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gnanalingam, K.

    1994-01-01

    Electricity demand forecasting plays an important role in power generation. The two areas of data that have to be forecasted in a power system are peak demand which determines the capacity (MW) of the plant required and annual energy demand (GWH). Methods used in electricity demand forecasting include time trend analysis and econometric methods. In forecasting, identification of manpower demand, identification of key planning factors, decision on planning horizon, differentiation between prediction and projection (i.e. development of different scenarios) and choosing from different forecasting techniques are important

  8. Spatial electric load forecasting

    CERN Document Server

    Willis, H Lee

    2002-01-01

    Containing 12 new chapters, this second edition contains offers increased-coverage of weather correction and normalization of forecasts, anticipation of redevelopment, determining the validity of announced developments, and minimizing risk from over- or under-planning. It provides specific examples and detailed explanations of key points to consider for both standard and unusual utility forecasting situations, information on new algorithms and concepts in forecasting, a review of forecasting pitfalls and mistakes, case studies depicting challenging forecast environments, and load models illustrating various types of demand.

  9. Energy forecast. Final report; Energiudsigten. Slutrapport

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2010-04-15

    A number of instruments, i.e. Internet, media campaigns, boxes displaying electricity prices (SEE1) and spot contract has been tested for households to shift their electricity consumption to times when prices are low. Of the implemented media campaigns, only the daily viewing of Energy forecast on TV had an impact. Consumers gained greater knowledge of electricity prices and electricity consumption loads, but only showed little interest in shifting electricity consumption. However, a measurable effect appeared at night with the group that had both concluded a spot contract and received an SEE1. These factors increase the awareness of the price of electricity and the possibility of shifting electricity consumption. (Energy 10)

  10. Evaluation of statistical models for forecast errors from the HBV model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Engeland, Kolbjørn; Renard, Benjamin; Steinsland, Ingelin; Kolberg, Sjur

    2010-04-01

    SummaryThree statistical models for the forecast errors for inflow into the Langvatn reservoir in Northern Norway have been constructed and tested according to the agreement between (i) the forecast distribution and the observations and (ii) median values of the forecast distribution and the observations. For the first model observed and forecasted inflows were transformed by the Box-Cox transformation before a first order auto-regressive model was constructed for the forecast errors. The parameters were conditioned on weather classes. In the second model the Normal Quantile Transformation (NQT) was applied on observed and forecasted inflows before a similar first order auto-regressive model was constructed for the forecast errors. For the third model positive and negative errors were modeled separately. The errors were first NQT-transformed before conditioning the mean error values on climate, forecasted inflow and yesterday's error. To test the three models we applied three criterions: we wanted (a) the forecast distribution to be reliable; (b) the forecast intervals to be narrow; (c) the median values of the forecast distribution to be close to the observed values. Models 1 and 2 gave almost identical results. The median values improved the forecast with Nash-Sutcliffe R eff increasing from 0.77 for the original forecast to 0.87 for the corrected forecasts. Models 1 and 2 over-estimated the forecast intervals but gave the narrowest intervals. Their main drawback was that the distributions are less reliable than Model 3. For Model 3 the median values did not fit well since the auto-correlation was not accounted for. Since Model 3 did not benefit from the potential variance reduction that lies in bias estimation and removal it gave on average wider forecasts intervals than the two other models. At the same time Model 3 on average slightly under-estimated the forecast intervals, probably explained by the use of average measures to evaluate the fit.

  11. Long-range forecasting of intermittent streamflow

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Ogtrop, F. F.; Vervoort, R. W.; Heller, G. Z.; Stasinopoulos, D. M.; Rigby, R. A.

    2011-11-01

    Long-range forecasting of intermittent streamflow in semi-arid Australia poses a number of major challenges. One of the challenges relates to modelling zero, skewed, non-stationary, and non-linear data. To address this, a statistical model to forecast streamflow up to 12 months ahead is applied to five semi-arid catchments in South Western Queensland. The model uses logistic regression through Generalised Additive Models for Location, Scale and Shape (GAMLSS) to determine the probability of flow occurring in any of the systems. We then use the same regression framework in combination with a right-skewed distribution, the Box-Cox t distribution, to model the intensity (depth) of the non-zero streamflows. Time, seasonality and climate indices, describing the Pacific and Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures, are tested as covariates in the GAMLSS model to make probabilistic 6 and 12-month forecasts of the occurrence and intensity of streamflow. The output reveals that in the study region the occurrence and variability of flow is driven by sea surface temperatures and therefore forecasts can be made with some skill.

  12. Long-range forecasting of intermittent streamflow

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. F. van Ogtrop

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available Long-range forecasting of intermittent streamflow in semi-arid Australia poses a number of major challenges. One of the challenges relates to modelling zero, skewed, non-stationary, and non-linear data. To address this, a statistical model to forecast streamflow up to 12 months ahead is applied to five semi-arid catchments in South Western Queensland. The model uses logistic regression through Generalised Additive Models for Location, Scale and Shape (GAMLSS to determine the probability of flow occurring in any of the systems. We then use the same regression framework in combination with a right-skewed distribution, the Box-Cox t distribution, to model the intensity (depth of the non-zero streamflows. Time, seasonality and climate indices, describing the Pacific and Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures, are tested as covariates in the GAMLSS model to make probabilistic 6 and 12-month forecasts of the occurrence and intensity of streamflow. The output reveals that in the study region the occurrence and variability of flow is driven by sea surface temperatures and therefore forecasts can be made with some skill.

  13. Fuel element box inspection device

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ortmayer, R.M.; Pick, W.

    1985-01-01

    The invention concerns a device for inspecting the outer geometry of a long fuel element box by measuring the surface contours over its longitudinal crossection and along its length by sensors. These are kept in a sledge which can be moved along the fuel element guide in a slot guide. The measurement signals reach an evaluation device outside the longitudinal box. (orig./HP) [de

  14. Black holes in a box

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Witek, Helvi; Cardoso, Vitor; Nerozzi, Andrea; Gualtieri, Leonardo; Herdeiro, Carlos; Zilhao, Miguel; Sperhake, Ulrich

    2010-01-01

    The evolution of BHs in 'confining boxes' is interesting for a number of reasons, particularly because it mimics some aspects of anti-de Sitter spacetimes. These admit no Cauchy surface and are a simple example of a non-globally hyperbolic spacetime. We are here interested in the potential role that boundary conditions play in the evolution of a BH system. For that, we imprison a binary BH in a box, at which boundary we set mirror-like boundary conditions.

  15. The lithium vapor box divertor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goldston, R J; Schwartz, J; Myers, R

    2016-01-01

    It has long been recognized that volumetric dissipation of the plasma heat flux from a fusion power system is preferable to its localized impingement on a material surface. Volumetric dissipation mitigates both the anticipated very high heat flux and intense particle-induced damage due to sputtering. Recent projections to a tokamak demonstration power plant suggest an immense upstream parallel heat flux, of order 20 GW m −2 , implying that fully detached operation may be a requirement for the success of fusion power. Building on pioneering work on the use of lithium by Nagayama et al and by Ono et al as well as earlier work on the gas box divertor by Watkins and Rebut, we present here a concept for a lithium vapor box divertor, in which lithium vapor extracts momentum and energy from a fusion-power-plant divertor plasma, using fully volumetric processes. At the high powers and pressures that are projected this requires a high density of lithium vapor, which must be isolated from the main plasma in order to avoid lithium build-up on the chamber walls or in the plasma. Isolation is achieved through a powerful multi-box differential pumping scheme available only for condensable vapors. The preliminary box-wise calculations are encouraging, but much more work is required to demonstrate the practical viability of this scheme, taking into account at least 2D plasma and vapor flows within and between the vapor boxes and out of the vapor boxes to the main plasma. (paper)

  16. Probabilistic online runoff forecasting for urban catchments using inputs from rain gauges as well as statically and dynamically adjusted weather radar

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Löwe, Roland; Thorndahl, Søren; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen

    2014-01-01

    We investigate the application of rainfall observations and forecasts from rain gauges and weather radar as input to operational urban runoff forecasting models. We apply lumped rainfall runoff models implemented in a stochastic grey-box modelling framework. Different model structures are conside......We investigate the application of rainfall observations and forecasts from rain gauges and weather radar as input to operational urban runoff forecasting models. We apply lumped rainfall runoff models implemented in a stochastic grey-box modelling framework. Different model structures...

  17. Inaccuracy in traffic forecasts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Flyvbjerg, Bent; Holm, Mette K. Skamris; Buhl, Søren Ladegaard

    2006-01-01

    This paper presents results from the first statistically significant study of traffic forecasts in transportation infrastructure projects. The sample used is the largest of its kind, covering 210 projects in 14 nations worth US$58 billion. The study shows with very high statistical significance...... that forecasters generally do a poor job of estimating the demand for transportation infrastructure projects. The result is substantial downside financial and economic risk. Forecasts have not become more accurate over the 30-year period studied. If techniques and skills for arriving at accurate demand forecasts...... forecasting. Highly inaccurate traffic forecasts combined with large standard deviations translate into large financial and economic risks. But such risks are typically ignored or downplayed by planners and decision-makers, to the detriment of social and economic welfare. The paper presents the data...

  18. FORECASTING MODELS IN MANAGEMENT

    OpenAIRE

    Sindelar, Jiri

    2008-01-01

    This article deals with the problems of forecasting models. First part of the article is dedicated to definition of the relevant areas (vertical and horizontal pillar of definition) and then the forecasting model itself is defined; as article presents theoretical background for further primary research, this definition is crucial. Finally the position of forecasting models within the management system is identified. The paper is a part of the outputs of FEM CULS grant no. 1312/11/3121.

  19. Forecasting in Planning

    OpenAIRE

    Ike, P.; Voogd, Henk; Voogd, Henk; Linden, Gerard

    2004-01-01

    This chapter begins with a discussion of qualitative forecasting by describing a number of methods that depend on judgements made by stakeholders, experts or other interested parties to arrive at forecasts. Two qualitative approaches are illuminated, the Delphi and scenario methods respectively. Quantitative forecasting is illustrated with a brief overview of time series methods. Both qualitative and quantitative methods are illustrated by an example. The role and relative importance of forec...

  20. The strategy of professional forecasting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ottaviani, Marco; Sørensen, Peter Norman

    2006-01-01

    We develop and compare two theories of professional forecasters’ strategic behavior. The first theory, reputational cheap talk, posits that forecasters endeavor to convince the market that they are well informed. The market evaluates their forecasting talent on the basis of the forecasts...... and the realized state. If the market expects forecasters to report their posterior expectations honestly, then forecasts are shaded toward the prior mean. With correct market expectations, equilibrium forecasts are imprecise but not shaded. The second theory posits that forecasters compete in a forecasting...... contest with pre-specified rules. In a winner-take-all contest, equilibrium forecasts are excessively differentiated...

  1. Plate forming and break down pizza box

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pantisano, Frank; Devine, Scott M.

    1992-01-01

    A standard corrugated paper pizza box is provided with slit cuts cut through the top panel of the pizza box in a shape to form four circular serving plates with a beveled raised edge and cross slit cuts through the bottom panel of the pizza box separating the box into four essentially equal portions for easy disposal.

  2. Injury risk in professional boxing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bledsoe, Gregory H; Li, Guohu; Levy, Fred

    2005-10-01

    Although a popular endeavor, boxing has fallen under increased scrutiny because of its association with traumatic brain injury. However, few studies have investigated the overall epidemiology of boxing injuries from representative samples, and no study has ever documented the incidence of injuries in female boxers. This study is a review of professional boxing data from the state of Nevada from September 2001 through March 2003. Medical and outcome data for all professional boxing matches occurring in Nevada between September 2001 and March 2003 (n = 524 matches) were analyzed on the basis of a pair-matched, case-control design. Cases were boxers who received an injury during the boxing matches. Boxers who were not injured served as control subjects. Both conditional and unconditional logistic regression models were used to assess risk factors for injury. The overall incidence rate of injury was 17.1 per 100 boxer-matches, or 3.4 per 100 boxer-rounds. Facial laceration accounted for 51% of all injuries, followed by hand injury (17%), eye injury (14%), and nose injury (5%). Male boxers were significantly more likely than female boxers to receive injuries (3.6 versus 1.2 per 100 boxer-rounds, P = 0.01). Male boxing matches also ended in knockouts and technical knockouts more often than did female matches (P boxing matches is high, particularly among male boxers. Superficial facial lacerations are the most common injury reported. Male boxers have a higher rate of knockout and technical knockouts than female boxers. Further research is necessary to determine the outcomes of injury, particularly the long-term neurologic outcome differences between sexes.

  3. Box graphs and resolutions I

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andreas P. Braun

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Box graphs succinctly and comprehensively characterize singular fibers of elliptic fibrations in codimension two and three, as well as flop transitions connecting these, in terms of representation theoretic data. We develop a framework that provides a systematic map between a box graph and a crepant algebraic resolution of the singular elliptic fibration, thus allowing an explicit construction of the fibers from a singular Weierstrass or Tate model. The key tool is what we call a fiber face diagram, which shows the relevant information of a (partial toric triangulation and allows the inclusion of more general algebraic blowups. We shown that each such diagram defines a sequence of weighted algebraic blowups, thus providing a realization of the fiber defined by the box graph in terms of an explicit resolution. We show this correspondence explicitly for the case of SU(5 by providing a map between box graphs and fiber faces, and thereby a sequence of algebraic resolutions of the Tate model, which realizes each of the box graphs.

  4. Decontamination of TRU glove boxes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Crawford, J.H.

    1978-03-01

    Two glove boxes that had been used for work with transuranic nuclides (TRU) for about 12 years were decontaminated in a test program to collect data for developing a decontamination facility for large equipment highly contaminated with alpha emitters. A simple chemical technique consisting of a cycle of water flushes and alkaline permanganate and oxalic acid washes was used for both boxes. The test showed that glove boxes and similar equipment that are grossly contaminated with transuranic nuclides can be decontaminated to the current DIE nonretrievable disposal guide of <10 nCi TRU/g with a moderate amount of decontamination solution and manpower. Decontamination of the first box from an estimated 1.3 Ci to about 5 mCi (6 nCi/g) required 1.3 gallons of decontamination solution and 0.03 man-hour of work for each square foot of surface area. The second box was decontaminated from an estimated 3.4 Ci to about 2.8 mCi (4.2 nCi/g) using 0.9 gallon of decontamination solution and 0.02 man-hour for each square foot of surface area. Further reductions in contamination were achieved by repetitive decontamination cycles, but the effectiveness of the technique decreased sharply after the initial cycle

  5. First-aid boxes - Reminder

    CERN Multimedia

    GS Department

    2010-01-01

    With a view to ensuring optimum use of the first-aid boxes on the CERN site, we should like to remind you of various changes introduced in March 2009: The TSO of the buildings concerned is responsible for the first-aid boxes, including checking their contents.   First-aid boxes may be restocked ONLY at the CERN stores (SCEM No. 54.99.80). This is no longer possible at the Infirmary. The associated cost is charged to the Departments.   First-aid boxes should be used only for mild injuries. All other cases should be referred to the Medical Service Infirmary (Bldg. 57 – ground-floor, tel. 73802) between 8.00 a.m. and 5.30 p.m. or to the Fire and Rescue Service (tel. 74444). N.B.: This information does not apply to the red emergency first-aid boxes in the underground areas or to the emergency kits for use in the event of being splashed with hydrofluoric acid.

  6. House Price Forecasts, Forecaster Herding, and the Recent Crisis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christian Pierdzioch

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available We used the Wall Street Journal survey data for the period 2006–2012 to analyze whether forecasts of house prices and housing starts provide evidence of (anti-herding of forecasters. Forecasts are consistent with herding (anti-herding of forecasters if forecasts are biased towards (away from the consensus forecast. We found that anti-herding is prevalent among forecasters of house prices. We also report that, following the recent crisis, the prevalence of forecaster anti-herding seems to have changed over time.

  7. House Price Forecasts, Forecaster Herding, and the Recent Crisis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stadtmann, Georg; Pierdzioch; Ruelke

    2013-01-01

    We used the Wall Street Journal survey data for the period 2006–2012 to analyze whether forecasts of house prices and housing starts provide evidence of (anti-)herding of forecasters. Forecasts are consistent with herding (anti-herding) of forecasters if forecasts are biased towards (away from) t......) the consensus forecast. We found that anti-herding is prevalent among forecasters of house prices. We also report that, following the recent crisis, the prevalence of forecaster anti-herding seems to have changed over time....

  8. World Area Forecast System (WAFS)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The World Area Forecast System (WAFS) is a worldwide system by which world area forecast centers provide aeronautical meteorological en-route forecasts in uniform...

  9. Medical and Safety Reforms in Boxing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jordan, Barry D.

    1988-01-01

    The continued existence of boxing as an accepted sport in civilized society has been long debated. The position of the American Medical Association (AMA) has evolved from promoting increased safety and medical reform to recommending total abolition of both amateur and professional boxing. In response to the AMA opposition to boxing, the boxing community has attempted to increase the safeguards in amateur and professional boxing. The United States of America Amateur Boxing Federation, which is the national regulatory agency for all amateur boxing in the United States, has taken several actions to prevent the occurrence of acute brain injury and is currently conducting epidemiologic studies to assess the long-term neuropsychologic consequences of amateur boxing. In professional boxing, state regulatory agencies such as the New York State Athletic Commission have introduced several medical interventions to prevent and reduce neurologic injury. The lack of a national regulatory agency to govern professional boxing has stimulated the formation of the Association of Boxing Commissions and potential legislation for the federal regulation of professional boxing by a federally chartered organization called the United States Boxing Commission. The AMA's opposition to boxing and the medical and safety reforms implemented by the proponents of boxing are discussed. PMID:3385788

  10. Forecasting in Planning

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ike, P.; Voogd, Henk; Voogd, Henk; Linden, Gerard

    2004-01-01

    This chapter begins with a discussion of qualitative forecasting by describing a number of methods that depend on judgements made by stakeholders, experts or other interested parties to arrive at forecasts. Two qualitative approaches are illuminated, the Delphi and scenario methods respectively.

  11. Improving Garch Volatility Forecasts

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Klaassen, F.J.G.M.

    1998-01-01

    Many researchers use GARCH models to generate volatility forecasts. We show, however, that such forecasts are too variable. To correct for this, we extend the GARCH model by distinguishing two regimes with different volatility levels. GARCH effects are allowed within each regime, so that our model

  12. On density forecast evaluation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Diks, C.

    2008-01-01

    Traditionally, probability integral transforms (PITs) have been popular means for evaluating density forecasts. For an ideal density forecast, the PITs should be uniformly distributed on the unit interval and independent. However, this is only a necessary condition, and not a sufficient one, as

  13. Identifying competencies of boxing coaches

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ioannis Tasiopoulos

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this study was to find out the management skills required by boxing coaches to administrate their clubs. For the purposes of this study a scale was constructed which was answered by 98 boxing coaches. Explanatory factor analysis revealed seven factors: Communication-public relations (5 items, event management (4 items, management techniques (4 items, new technologies (4 items, prevention-safety (2 items, sport (5 items and sports facilities (2 items. The Cronbach of the scale was 0.85. The five competencies that rated by the coaches were: Supervisors of the area of training, maintaining excellent communication with athletes, using new technologies (e-mail, internet, handling disciplinary matters, accidents, complaints and reports on some sporting games and promoted harmony among athletes. We concluded that boxing coaches understand that the competencies required for meeting their obligations, were related to sports, prevention, safety and communications-public relations.

  14. Forecast Accuracy Uncertainty and Momentum

    OpenAIRE

    Bing Han; Dong Hong; Mitch Warachka

    2009-01-01

    We demonstrate that stock price momentum and earnings momentum can result from uncertainty surrounding the accuracy of cash flow forecasts. Our model has multiple information sources issuing cash flow forecasts for a stock. The investor combines these forecasts into an aggregate cash flow estimate that has minimal mean-squared forecast error. This aggregate estimate weights each cash flow forecast by the estimated accuracy of its issuer, which is obtained from their past forecast errors. Mome...

  15. Neurochemical aftermath of amateur boxing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zetterberg, Henrik; Hietala, M Albert; Jonsson, Michael; Andreasen, Niels; Styrud, Ewa; Karlsson, Ingvar; Edman, Ake; Popa, Cornel; Rasulzada, Abdullah; Wahlund, Lars-Olof; Mehta, Pankaj D; Rosengren, Lars; Blennow, Kaj; Wallin, Anders

    2006-09-01

    Little solid information is available on the possible risks for neuronal injury in amateur boxing. To determine whether amateur boxing and severity of hits are associated with elevated levels of biochemical markers for neuronal injury in cerebrospinal fluid. Longitudinal study. Referral center specializing in evaluation of neurodegenerative disorders. Fourteen amateur boxers (11 men and 3 women) and 10 healthy male nonathletic control subjects. The boxers underwent lumbar puncture 7 to 10 days and 3 months after a bout. The control subjects underwent LP once. Neurofilament light protein, total tau, glial fibrillary acidic protein, phosphorylated tau, and beta-amyloid protein 1-40 (Abeta([1-40])) and 1-42 (Abeta([1-42])) concentrations in cerebrospinal fluid were measured. Increased levels after a bout compared with after 3 months of rest from boxing were found for 2 markers for neuronal and axonal injury, neurofilament light protein (mean +/- SD, 845 +/- 1140 ng/L vs 208 +/- 108 ng/L; P = .008) and total tau (mean +/- SD, 449 +/- 176 ng/L vs 306 +/- 78 ng/L; P = .006), and for the astroglial injury marker glial fibrillary acidic protein (mean +/- SD, 541 +/- 199 ng/L vs 405 +/- 138 ng/L; P = .003). The increase was significantly higher among boxers who had received many hits (>15) or high-impact hits to the head compared with boxers who reported few hits. In the boxers, concentrations of neurofilament light protein and glial fibrillary acidic protein, but not total tau, were significantly elevated after a bout compared with the nonathletic control subjects. With the exception of neurofilament light protein, there were no significant differences between boxers after 3 months of rest from boxing and the nonathletic control subjects. Amateur boxing is associated with acute neuronal and astroglial injury. If verified in longitudinal studies with extensive follow-up regarding the clinical outcome, analyses of cerebrospinal fluid may provide a scientific basis for

  16. 46 CFR 111.81-1 - Outlet boxes and junction boxes; general.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... fixture, wiring device, or similar item, including each separately installed connection and junction box... used. (d) As appropriate, each outlet-box or junction-box installation must meet the following...

  17. Prediction of welding shrinkage deformation of bridge steel box girder based on wavelet neural network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tao, Yulong; Miao, Yunshui; Han, Jiaqi; Yan, Feiyun

    2018-05-01

    Aiming at the low accuracy of traditional forecasting methods such as linear regression method, this paper presents a prediction method for predicting the relationship between bridge steel box girder and its displacement with wavelet neural network. Compared with traditional forecasting methods, this scheme has better local characteristics and learning ability, which greatly improves the prediction ability of deformation. Through analysis of the instance and found that after compared with the traditional prediction method based on wavelet neural network, the rigid beam deformation prediction accuracy is higher, and is superior to the BP neural network prediction results, conform to the actual demand of engineering design.

  18. On the Dirichlet's Box Principle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poon, Kin-Keung; Shiu, Wai-Chee

    2008-01-01

    In this note, we will focus on several applications on the Dirichlet's box principle in Discrete Mathematics lesson and number theory lesson. In addition, the main result is an innovative game on a triangular board developed by the authors. The game has been used in teaching and learning mathematics in Discrete Mathematics and some high schools in…

  19. Glove boxes and similar containments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1975-01-01

    According to the present invention a glove box or similar containment is provided with an exhaust system including a vortex amplifier venting into the system, the vortex amplifier also having its main inlet in fluid flow connection with the containment and a control inlet in fluid flow connection with the atmosphere outside the containment. (U.S.)

  20. Innovations in Los Alamos alpha box design

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ledbetter, J.M.; Dowler, K.E.; Cook, J.H.

    1985-01-01

    Destructive examinations of irradiated fuel pins containing plutonium fuel must be performed in shielded hot cells with strict provisions for containing the plutonium. Alpha boxes provide containment for the plutonium, toxic fission products, and other hazardous highly radioactive materials. The alpha box contains windows for viewing and a variety of transfer systems specially designed to allow transfers in and out of the alpha box without spread of the hazardous materials that are contained in the box. Alpha boxes have been in use in the Wing 9 hot cells at Los Alamos National Laboratory for more than 20 years. Features of the newly designed alpha boxes are presented

  1. Spatial electric load forecasting

    CERN Document Server

    Willis, H Lee

    2002-01-01

    Spatial Electric Load Forecasting Consumer Demand for Power and ReliabilityCoincidence and Load BehaviorLoad Curve and End-Use ModelingWeather and Electric LoadWeather Design Criteria and Forecast NormalizationSpatial Load Growth BehaviorSpatial Forecast Accuracy and Error MeasuresTrending MethodsSimulation Method: Basic ConceptsA Detailed Look at the Simulation MethodBasics of Computerized SimulationAnalytical Building Blocks for Spatial SimulationAdvanced Elements of Computerized SimulationHybrid Trending-Simulation MethodsAdvanced

  2. About the National Forecast Chart

    Science.gov (United States)

    code. Press enter or select the go button to submit request Local forecast by "City, St" or Prediction Center on Twitter NCEP Quarterly Newsletter WPC Home Analyses and Forecasts National Forecast to all federal, state, and local government web resources and services. The National Forecast Charts

  3. Marine Point Forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    will link to the zone forecast and then allow further zooming to the point of interest whereas on the Honolulu, HI Chicago, IL Northern Indiana, IN Lake Charles, LA New Orleans, LA Boston, MA Caribou, ME

  4. Socioeconomic Forecasting : [Technical Summary

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    Because the traffic forecasts produced by the Indiana : Statewide Travel Demand Model (ISTDM) are driven by : the demographic and socioeconomic inputs to the model, : particular attention must be given to obtaining the most : accurate demographic and...

  5. NYHOPS Forecast Model Results

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — 3D Marine Nowcast/Forecast System for the New York Bight NYHOPS subdomain. Currents, waves, surface meteorology, and water conditions.

  6. Inflow forecasting at BPA

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McManamon, A. [Bonneville Power Administration, Portland, OR (United States)

    2007-07-01

    The Columbia River Power System operates with consideration for flood control, endangered species, navigation, irrigation, water supply, recreation, other fish and wildlife concerns and power production. The Bonneville Power Association (BPA) located in Portland, Oregon is responsible for 35-40 per cent of the power consumed within the region. This presentation discussed inflow power concerns at BPA. The presentation illustrated elevational relief of projects; annual and daily variability; the hydrologic cycle; national river service weather forecasting service (NRSWFS); components of NRSWFS; and hydrologic forecast locations. Project operations and inventory were included along with a comparison of the 71-year average unregulated flow with regulated flow at the Dalles. Consistency between short-term and long-term forecasts and long-term streamflow forecasts were also illustrated in graphical format. The presentation also discussed the issue of reducing model and parameter uncertainty; reducing initial conditions uncertainty; snow updating; and reducing meteorological uncertainty. tabs., figs.

  7. CCAA seasonal forecasting

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Integrating meteorological and indigenous knowledge-based seasonal climate forecasts in ..... Explanation is based on spiritual and social values. Taught by .... that provided medicine and food became the subject of strict rules and practices ...

  8. Forecast Icing Product

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Forecast Icing Product (FIP) is an automatically-generated index suitable for depicting areas of potentially hazardous airframe icing. The FIP algorithm uses...

  9. Light Therapy Boxes for Seasonal Affective Disorder

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seasonal affective disorder treatment: Choosing a light therapy box Light therapy boxes can offer an effective treatment for seasonal affective disorder. Features such as light intensity, safety, cost and ...

  10. Conditional Probabilistic Population Forecasting

    OpenAIRE

    Sanderson, W.C.; Scherbov, S.; O'Neill, B.C.; Lutz, W.

    2003-01-01

    Since policy makers often prefer to think in terms of scenarios, the question has arisen as to whether it is possible to make conditional population forecasts in a probabilistic context. This paper shows that it is both possible and useful to make these forecasts. We do this with two different kinds of examples. The first is the probabilistic analog of deterministic scenario analysis. Conditional probabilistic scenario analysis is essential for policy makers it allows them to answer "what if"...

  11. Conditional probabilistic population forecasting

    OpenAIRE

    Sanderson, Warren; Scherbov, Sergei; O'Neill, Brian; Lutz, Wolfgang

    2003-01-01

    Since policy-makers often prefer to think in terms of alternative scenarios, the question has arisen as to whether it is possible to make conditional population forecasts in a probabilistic context. This paper shows that it is both possible and useful to make these forecasts. We do this with two different kinds of examples. The first is the probabilistic analog of deterministic scenario analysis. Conditional probabilistic scenario analysis is essential for policy-makers because it allows them...

  12. Conditional Probabilistic Population Forecasting

    OpenAIRE

    Sanderson, Warren C.; Scherbov, Sergei; O'Neill, Brian C.; Lutz, Wolfgang

    2004-01-01

    Since policy-makers often prefer to think in terms of alternative scenarios, the question has arisen as to whether it is possible to make conditional population forecasts in a probabilistic context. This paper shows that it is both possible and useful to make these forecasts. We do this with two different kinds of examples. The first is the probabilistic analog of deterministic scenario analysis. Conditional probabilistic scenario analysis is essential for policy-makers because...

  13. EU pharmaceutical expenditure forecast

    OpenAIRE

    Urbinati, Duccio; Rémuzat, Cécile; Kornfeld, Åsa; Vataire, Anne-Lise; Cetinsoy, Laurent; Aballéa, Samuel; Mzoughi, Olfa; Toumi, Mondher

    2014-01-01

    Background and Objectives: With constant incentives for healthcare payers to contain their pharmaceutical budgets, forecasting has become critically important. Some countries have, for instance, developed pharmaceutical horizon scanning units. The objective of this project was to build a model to assess the net effect of the entrance of new patented medicinal products versus medicinal products going off-patent, with a defined forecast horizon, on selected European Union (EU) Member States’ ph...

  14. Problems of Forecast

    OpenAIRE

    Kucharavy , Dmitry; De Guio , Roland

    2005-01-01

    International audience; The ability to foresee future technology is a key task of Innovative Design. The paper focuses on the obstacles to reliable prediction of technological evolution for the purpose of Innovative Design. First, a brief analysis of problems for existing forecasting methods is presented. The causes for the complexity of technology prediction are discussed in the context of reduction of the forecast errors. Second, using a contradiction analysis, a set of problems related to ...

  15. Box-particle probability hypothesis density filtering

    OpenAIRE

    Schikora, M.; Gning, A.; Mihaylova, L.; Cremers, D.; Koch, W.

    2014-01-01

    This paper develops a novel approach for multitarget tracking, called box-particle probability hypothesis density filter (box-PHD filter). The approach is able to track multiple targets and estimates the unknown number of targets. Furthermore, it is capable of dealing with three sources of uncertainty: stochastic, set-theoretic, and data association uncertainty. The box-PHD filter reduces the number of particles significantly, which improves the runtime considerably. The small number of box-p...

  16. The Heuristic Interpretation of Box Plots

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lem, Stephanie; Onghena, Patrick; Verschaffel, Lieven; Van Dooren, Wim

    2013-01-01

    Box plots are frequently used, but are often misinterpreted by students. Especially the area of the box in box plots is often misinterpreted as representing number or proportion of observations, while it actually represents their density. In a first study, reaction time evidence was used to test whether heuristic reasoning underlies this…

  17. Water box for steam generator

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lecomte, Robert; Viaud, Michel.

    1975-01-01

    This invention relates to a water box for connecting an assembly composed of a vertical steam generator and a vertical pump to the vessel of the nuclear reactor, the assembly forming the primary cooling system of a pressurised water reactor. This invention makes it easy to dismantle the pump on the water box without significant loss of water in the primary cooling system of the reactor and particularly without it being necessary to drain the water contained in the steam generator beforehand. It makes it possible to shorten the time required for dismantling the primary pump in order to service or repair it and makes dismantling safer in that the dismantling does not involve draining the steam generator and therefore the critical storage of a large amount of cooling water that has been in contact with the fuel assemblies of the nuclear reactor core [fr

  18. Broken links and black boxes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sindbæk, Søren Michael

    2013-01-01

    Long-distance communication has emerged as a particular focus for archaeological exploration using network theory, analysis, and modelling. Initial attempts to adapt methods from social network analysis to archaeological data have, however, struggled to produce decisive results. This paper argues...... observable distributions and patterns of association in the archaeological record. In formal terms this is not a problem of network analysis, but network synthesis: the classic problem of cracking codes or reconstructing black-box circuits....

  19. Operational river discharge forecasting in poorly gauged basins: the Kavango River Basin case study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bauer-Gottwein, Peter; Jensen, Iris Hedegaard; Guzinski, R.

    2014-01-01

    to support integrated water resources management in Africa and to facilitate the use of satellite earth observation data in water management. We present an operational probabilistic forecasting approach which uses public-domain climate forcing data and a hydrologic–hydrodynamic model which is entirely based......Operational probabilistic forecasts of river discharge are essential for effective water resources management. Many studies have addressed this topic using different approaches ranging from purely statistical black-box approaches to physically-based and distributed modelling schemes employing data...... on open-source software. Data assimilation techniques are used to inform the forecasts with the latest available observations. Forecasts are produced in real time for lead times of 0 to 7 days. The operational probabilistic forecasts are evaluated using a selection of performance statistics and indicators...

  20. Operational river discharge forecasting in poorly gauged basins: the Kavango River basin case study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bauer-Gottwein, Peter; Jensen, Iris Hedegaard; Guzinski, R.

    2015-01-01

    in Africa. We present an operational probabilistic forecasting approach which uses public-domain climate forcing data and a hydrologic-hydrodynamic model which is entirely based on open-source software. Data assimilation techniques are used to inform the forecasts with the latest available observations......Operational probabilistic forecasts of river discharge are essential for effective water resources management. Many studies have addressed this topic using different approaches ranging from purely statistical black-box approaches to physically based and distributed modeling schemes employing data...... assimilation techniques. However, few studies have attempted to develop operational probabilistic forecasting approaches for large and poorly gauged river basins. The objective of this study is to develop open-source software tools to support hydrologic forecasting and integrated water resources management...

  1. The high-resolution global SST forecast set of the CSIR

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Landman, WA

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available -RESOLUTION GLOBAL SST FORECAST SET OF THE CSIR Willem A. Landman Council for Scientific and Industrial Research, P. O. Box 395, Pretoria, 0001, South Africa David G. DeWitt and Dong-Eun Lee International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Lamont...

  2. Operational hydrological forecasting in Bavaria. Part II: Ensemble forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ehret, U.; Vogelbacher, A.; Moritz, K.; Laurent, S.; Meyer, I.; Haag, I.

    2009-04-01

    In part I of this study, the operational flood forecasting system in Bavaria and an approach to identify and quantify forecast uncertainty was introduced. The approach is split into the calculation of an empirical 'overall error' from archived forecasts and the calculation of an empirical 'model error' based on hydrometeorological forecast tests, where rainfall observations were used instead of forecasts. The 'model error' can especially in upstream catchments where forecast uncertainty is strongly dependent on the current predictability of the atrmosphere be superimposed on the spread of a hydrometeorological ensemble forecast. In Bavaria, two meteorological ensemble prediction systems are currently tested for operational use: the 16-member COSMO-LEPS forecast and a poor man's ensemble composed of DWD GME, DWD Cosmo-EU, NCEP GFS, Aladin-Austria, MeteoSwiss Cosmo-7. The determination of the overall forecast uncertainty is dependent on the catchment characteristics: 1. Upstream catchment with high influence of weather forecast a) A hydrological ensemble forecast is calculated using each of the meteorological forecast members as forcing. b) Corresponding to the characteristics of the meteorological ensemble forecast, each resulting forecast hydrograph can be regarded as equally likely. c) The 'model error' distribution, with parameters dependent on hydrological case and lead time, is added to each forecast timestep of each ensemble member d) For each forecast timestep, the overall (i.e. over all 'model error' distribution of each ensemble member) error distribution is calculated e) From this distribution, the uncertainty range on a desired level (here: the 10% and 90% percentile) is extracted and drawn as forecast envelope. f) As the mean or median of an ensemble forecast does not necessarily exhibit meteorologically sound temporal evolution, a single hydrological forecast termed 'lead forecast' is chosen and shown in addition to the uncertainty bounds. This can be

  3. Invariant box-parameterization of neutrino oscillations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weiler, Thomas J.; Wagner, DJ

    1998-01-01

    The model-independent 'box' parameterization of neutrino oscillations is examined. The invariant boxes are the classical amplitudes of the individual oscillating terms. Being observables, the boxes are independent of the choice of parameterization of the mixing matrix. Emphasis is placed on the relations among the box parameters due to mixing-matrix unitarity, and on the reduction of the number of boxes to the minimum basis set. Using the box algebra, we show that CP-violation may be inferred from measurements of neutrino flavor mixing even when the oscillatory factors have averaged. General analyses of neutrino oscillations among n≥3 flavors can readily determine the boxes, which can then be manipulated to yield magnitudes of mixing matrix elements

  4. Invariant box parameterization of neutrino oscillations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weiler, T.J.; Wagner, D.

    1998-01-01

    The model-independent 'box' parameterization of neutrino oscillations is examined. The invariant boxes are the classical amplitudes of the individual oscillating terms. Being observables, the boxes are independent of the choice of parameterization of the mixing matrix. Emphasis is placed on the relations among the box parameters due to mixing matrix unitarity, and on the reduction of the number of boxes to the minimum basis set. Using the box algebra, we show that CP-violation may be inferred from measurements of neutrino flavor mixing even when the oscillatory factors have averaged. General analyses of neutrino oscillations among n≥3 flavors can readily determine the boxes, which can then be manipulated to yield magnitudes of mixing matrix elements. copyright 1998 American Institute of Physics

  5. Space Weather Forecasting at IZMIRAN

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaidash, S. P.; Belov, A. V.; Abunina, M. A.; Abunin, A. A.

    2017-12-01

    Since 1998, the Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere, and Radio Wave Propagation (IZMIRAN) has had an operating heliogeophysical service—the Center for Space Weather Forecasts. This center transfers the results of basic research in solar-terrestrial physics into daily forecasting of various space weather parameters for various lead times. The forecasts are promptly available to interested consumers. This article describes the center and the main types of forecasts it provides: solar and geomagnetic activity, magnetospheric electron fluxes, and probabilities of proton increases. The challenges associated with the forecasting of effects of coronal mass ejections and coronal holes are discussed. Verification data are provided for the center's forecasts.

  6. Assessment of storm forecast

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cutululis, Nicolaos Antonio; Hahmann, Andrea N.; Huus Bjerge, Martin

    When wind speed exceeds a certain value, wind turbines shut-down in order to protect their structure. This leads to sudden wind plants shut down and to new challenges concerning the secure operation of the pan-European electric system with future large scale offshore wind power. This task aims...... stopped, completely or partially, producing due to extreme wind speeds. Wind speed and power measurements from those events are presented and compared to the forecast available at Energinet.dk. The analysis looked at wind speed and wind power forecast. The main conclusion of the analysis is that the wind...... to consider it an EWP) and that the available wind speed forecasts are given as a mean wind speed over a rather large area. At wind power level, the analysis shows that prediction of accurate production levels from a wind farm experiencing EWP is rather poor. This is partially because the power curve...

  7. Financial Analysts’ Forecasts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stæhr, Simone

    . The primary focus is on financial analysts in the task of conducting earnings forecasts while a secondary focus is on investors’ abilities to interpret and make use of these forecasts. Simply put, financial analysts can be seen as information intermediators receiving inputs to their analyses from firm...... in the decision making and the magnitude of these constraints does sometimes vary with personal traits. Therefore, to the extent that financial analysts are subjects to behavioral biases their outputs to the investors are likely to be biased by their interpretation of information. Because investors need accuracy...... management and providing outputs to the investors. Amongst various outputs from the analysts are forecasts of earnings. According to decision theories mostly from the literature in psychology all humans are affected by cognitive constraints to some degree. These constraints may lead to unintentional biases...

  8. Wind power forecast

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pestana, Rui [Rede Electrica Nacional (REN), S.A., Lisboa (Portugal). Dept. Systems and Development System Operator; Trancoso, Ana Rosa; Delgado Domingos, Jose [Univ. Tecnica de Lisboa (Portugal). Seccao de Ambiente e Energia

    2012-07-01

    Accurate wind power forecast are needed to reduce integration costs in the electric grid caused by wind inherent variability. Currently, Portugal has a significant wind power penetration level and consequently the need to have reliable wind power forecasts at different temporal scales, including localized events such as ramps. This paper provides an overview of the methodologies used by REN to forecast wind power at national level, based on statistical and probabilistic combinations of NWP and measured data with the aim of improving accuracy of pure NWP. Results show that significant improvement can be achieved with statistical combination with persistence in the short-term and with probabilistic combination in the medium-term. NWP are also able to detect ramp events with 3 day notice to the operational planning. (orig.)

  9. On the effect of model parameters on forecast objects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marzban, Caren; Jones, Corinne; Li, Ning; Sandgathe, Scott

    2018-04-01

    Many physics-based numerical models produce a gridded, spatial field of forecasts, e.g., a temperature map. The field for some quantities generally consists of spatially coherent and disconnected objects. Such objects arise in many problems, including precipitation forecasts in atmospheric models, eddy currents in ocean models, and models of forest fires. Certain features of these objects (e.g., location, size, intensity, and shape) are generally of interest. Here, a methodology is developed for assessing the impact of model parameters on the features of forecast objects. The main ingredients of the methodology include the use of (1) Latin hypercube sampling for varying the values of the model parameters, (2) statistical clustering algorithms for identifying objects, (3) multivariate multiple regression for assessing the impact of multiple model parameters on the distribution (across the forecast domain) of object features, and (4) methods for reducing the number of hypothesis tests and controlling the resulting errors. The final output of the methodology is a series of box plots and confidence intervals that visually display the sensitivities. The methodology is demonstrated on precipitation forecasts from a mesoscale numerical weather prediction model.

  10. Projected Applications of a "Weather in a Box" Computing System at the NASA Short-Term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jedlovec, Gary J.; Molthan, Andrew; Zavodsky, Bradley T.; Case, Jonathan L.; LaFontaine, Frank J.; Srikishen, Jayanthi

    2010-01-01

    The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition Center (SPoRT)'s new "Weather in a Box" resources will provide weather research and forecast modeling capabilities for real-time application. Model output will provide additional forecast guidance and research into the impacts of new NASA satellite data sets and software capabilities. By combining several research tools and satellite products, SPoRT can generate model guidance that is strongly influenced by unique NASA contributions.

  11. Voronoi Diagrams Without Bounding Boxes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sang, E. T. K.

    2015-10-01

    We present a technique for presenting geographic data in Voronoi diagrams without having to specify a bounding box. The method restricts Voronoi cells to points within a user-defined distance of the data points. The mathematical foundation of the approach is presented as well. The cell clipping method is particularly useful for presenting geographic data that is spread in an irregular way over a map, as for example the Dutch dialect data displayed in Figure 2. The automatic generation of reasonable cell boundaries also makes redundant a frequently used solution to this problem that requires data owners to specify region boundaries, as in Goebl (2010) and Nerbonne et al (2011).

  12. Forecast of auroral activity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lui, A.T.Y.

    2004-01-01

    A new technique is developed to predict auroral activity based on a sample of over 9000 auroral sites identified in global auroral images obtained by an ultraviolet imager on the NASA Polar satellite during a 6-month period. Four attributes of auroral activity sites are utilized in forecasting, namely, the area, the power, and the rates of change in area and power. This new technique is quite accurate, as indicated by the high true skill scores for forecasting three different levels of auroral dissipation during the activity lifetime. The corresponding advanced warning time ranges from 22 to 79 min from low to high dissipation levels

  13. Forecasting Turbine Icing Events

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Davis, Neil; Hahmann, Andrea N.; Clausen, Niels-Erik

    2012-01-01

    In this study, we present a method for forecasting icing events. The method is validated at two European wind farms in with known icing events. The icing model used was developed using current ice accretion methods, and newly developed ablation algorithms. The model is driven by inputs from the WRF...... mesoscale model, allowing for both climatological estimates of icing and short term icing forecasts. The current model was able to detect periods of icing reasonably well at the warmer site. However at the cold climate site, the model was not able to remove ice quickly enough leading to large ice...

  14. Spatial load forecasting

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Willis, H.L.; Engel, M.V.; Buri, M.J.

    1995-04-01

    The reliability, efficiency, and economy of a power delivery system depend mainly on how well its substations, transmission lines, and distribution feeders are located within the utility service area, and how well their capacities match power needs in their respective localities. Often, utility planners are forced to commit to sites, rights of way, and equipment capacities year in advance. A necessary element of effective expansion planning is a forecast of where and how much demand must be served by the future T and D system. This article reports that a three-stage method forecasts with accuracy and detail, allowing meaningful determination of sties and sizes for future substation, transmission, and distribution facilities.

  15. Forecasting Housing Approvals in Australia: Do Forecasters Herd?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stadtmann, Georg; Pierdzioch; Rülke

    2012-01-01

    Price trends in housing markets may reflect herding of market participants. A natural question is whether such herding, to the extent that it occurred, reflects herding in forecasts of professional forecasters. Using more than 6,000 forecasts of housing approvals for Australia, we did not find...

  16. CDM Convective Forecast Planning guidance

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The CDM Convective Forecast Planning (CCFP) guidance product provides a foreast of en-route aviation convective hazards. The forecasts are updated every 2 hours and...

  17. Are demand forecasting techniques applicable to libraries?

    OpenAIRE

    Sridhar, M. S.

    1984-01-01

    Examines the nature and limitations of demand forecasting, discuses plausible methods of forecasting demand for information, suggests some useful hints for demand forecasting and concludes by emphasizing unified approach to demand forecasting.

  18. Evaluation Of Statistical Models For Forecast Errors From The HBV-Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Engeland, K.; Kolberg, S.; Renard, B.; Stensland, I.

    2009-04-01

    Three statistical models for the forecast errors for inflow to the Langvatn reservoir in Northern Norway have been constructed and tested according to how well the distribution and median values of the forecasts errors fit to the observations. For the first model observed and forecasted inflows were transformed by the Box-Cox transformation before a first order autoregressive model was constructed for the forecast errors. The parameters were conditioned on climatic conditions. In the second model the Normal Quantile Transformation (NQT) was applied on observed and forecasted inflows before a similar first order autoregressive model was constructed for the forecast errors. For the last model positive and negative errors were modeled separately. The errors were first NQT-transformed before a model where the mean values were conditioned on climate, forecasted inflow and yesterday's error. To test the three models we applied three criterions: We wanted a) the median values to be close to the observed values; b) the forecast intervals to be narrow; c) the distribution to be correct. The results showed that it is difficult to obtain a correct model for the forecast errors, and that the main challenge is to account for the auto-correlation in the errors. Model 1 and 2 gave similar results, and the main drawback is that the distributions are not correct. The 95% forecast intervals were well identified, but smaller forecast intervals were over-estimated, and larger intervals were under-estimated. Model 3 gave a distribution that fits better, but the median values do not fit well since the auto-correlation is not properly accounted for. If the 95% forecast interval is of interest, Model 2 is recommended. If the whole distribution is of interest, Model 3 is recommended.

  19. Forecasting of superconducting compounds

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Savitskii, E.M.; Gribulya, V.G.; Kiseleva, N.N.

    1981-01-01

    In forecasting new superconducting intermetallic compounds of the A15 and Mo 3 Se types most promising from the viewpoint of high critical temperature Tsub(c), high critical magnetic fields Hsub(c), and high critical currents and in estimating their transition temperature it is proposed to apply cybernetic methods of computer learning

  20. Forecast of nuclear energetics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sikora, W

    1976-01-01

    The forecast concerning the development of nuclear energetics is presented. Some information on economics of nuclear power plants is given. The nuclear fuel reserves are estimated on the background of power resources of the world. The safety and environment protection problems are mentioned.

  1. Climate Forecast System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weather Service NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS home page Climate Forecast System Home News Organization Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services. The NCEP Climate when using the CFS Reanalysis (CFSR) data. Saha, Suranjana, and Coauthors, 2010: The NCEP Climate

  2. Foresight and Forecasts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kilbourn, Kyle; Bay, Marie Brøndum

    In predicting areas of growth, public innovation projects may rely on optimistic visions of technology still in development as a way of ensuring novelty for funding. This paper explores what happens when forecasts of robotic technology meets the practice of sterile supply in a preliminary stage...

  3. Hydrology and flow forecasting

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vrijling, J.K.; Kwadijk, J.; Van Duivendijk, J.; Van Gelder, P.; Pang, H.; Rao, S.Q.; Wang, G.Q.; Huang, X.Q.

    2002-01-01

    We have studied and applied the statistic model (i.e. MMC) and hydrological models to Upper Yellow River. This report introduces the results and some conclusions from the model. The three models, MMC, MWBM and NAM, have be applied in the research area. The forecasted discharge by the three models

  4. NWS Marine Forecast Areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    of Commerce Ocean Prediction Center National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Analysis & Unified Surface Analysis Ocean Ocean Products Ice & Icebergs NIC Ice Products NAIS Iceberg Analysis Social Media Facebook Twitter YouTube Search Search For Go NWS All NOAA NWS Marine Forecast Areas

  5. The Latest Forecast.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laurence, David

    2002-01-01

    Discusses the "latest forecast" for the future of English departments. Addresses departmental and institutional staffing practices, employment opportunities for PhDs, the acceleration of change in the institution, and the general state of the study and teaching of English. (RS)

  6. Ecological forecasts: An emerging imperative

    Science.gov (United States)

    James S. Clark; Steven R. Carpenter; Mary Barber; Scott Collins; Andy Dobson; Jonathan A. Foley; David M. Lodge; Mercedes Pascual; Roger Pielke; William Pizer; Cathy Pringle; Walter V. Reid; Kenneth A. Rose; Osvaldo Sala; William H. Schlesinger; Diana H. Wall; David Wear

    2001-01-01

    Planning and decision-making can be improved by access to reliable forecasts of ecosystem state, ecosystem services, and natural capital. Availability of new data sets, together with progress in computation and statistics, will increase our ability to forecast ecosystem change. An agenda that would lead toward a capacity to produce, evaluate, and communicate forecasts...

  7. Air Pollution Forecasts: An Overview

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bai, Lu; Wang, Jianzhou; Lu, Haiyan

    2018-01-01

    Air pollution is defined as a phenomenon harmful to the ecological system and the normal conditions of human existence and development when some substances in the atmosphere exceed a certain concentration. In the face of increasingly serious environmental pollution problems, scholars have conducted a significant quantity of related research, and in those studies, the forecasting of air pollution has been of paramount importance. As a precaution, the air pollution forecast is the basis for taking effective pollution control measures, and accurate forecasting of air pollution has become an important task. Extensive research indicates that the methods of air pollution forecasting can be broadly divided into three classical categories: statistical forecasting methods, artificial intelligence methods, and numerical forecasting methods. More recently, some hybrid models have been proposed, which can improve the forecast accuracy. To provide a clear perspective on air pollution forecasting, this study reviews the theory and application of those forecasting models. In addition, based on a comparison of different forecasting methods, the advantages and disadvantages of some methods of forecasting are also provided. This study aims to provide an overview of air pollution forecasting methods for easy access and reference by researchers, which will be helpful in further studies. PMID:29673227

  8. Air Pollution Forecasts: An Overview.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bai, Lu; Wang, Jianzhou; Ma, Xuejiao; Lu, Haiyan

    2018-04-17

    Air pollution is defined as a phenomenon harmful to the ecological system and the normal conditions of human existence and development when some substances in the atmosphere exceed a certain concentration. In the face of increasingly serious environmental pollution problems, scholars have conducted a significant quantity of related research, and in those studies, the forecasting of air pollution has been of paramount importance. As a precaution, the air pollution forecast is the basis for taking effective pollution control measures, and accurate forecasting of air pollution has become an important task. Extensive research indicates that the methods of air pollution forecasting can be broadly divided into three classical categories: statistical forecasting methods, artificial intelligence methods, and numerical forecasting methods. More recently, some hybrid models have been proposed, which can improve the forecast accuracy. To provide a clear perspective on air pollution forecasting, this study reviews the theory and application of those forecasting models. In addition, based on a comparison of different forecasting methods, the advantages and disadvantages of some methods of forecasting are also provided. This study aims to provide an overview of air pollution forecasting methods for easy access and reference by researchers, which will be helpful in further studies.

  9. Air Pollution Forecasts: An Overview

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lu Bai

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Air pollution is defined as a phenomenon harmful to the ecological system and the normal conditions of human existence and development when some substances in the atmosphere exceed a certain concentration. In the face of increasingly serious environmental pollution problems, scholars have conducted a significant quantity of related research, and in those studies, the forecasting of air pollution has been of paramount importance. As a precaution, the air pollution forecast is the basis for taking effective pollution control measures, and accurate forecasting of air pollution has become an important task. Extensive research indicates that the methods of air pollution forecasting can be broadly divided into three classical categories: statistical forecasting methods, artificial intelligence methods, and numerical forecasting methods. More recently, some hybrid models have been proposed, which can improve the forecast accuracy. To provide a clear perspective on air pollution forecasting, this study reviews the theory and application of those forecasting models. In addition, based on a comparison of different forecasting methods, the advantages and disadvantages of some methods of forecasting are also provided. This study aims to provide an overview of air pollution forecasting methods for easy access and reference by researchers, which will be helpful in further studies.

  10. Storm Prediction Center Forecast Products

    Science.gov (United States)

    select the go button to submit request Local forecast by "City, St" or "ZIP" City, St Archive NOAA Weather Radio Research Non-op. Products Forecast Tools Svr. Tstm. Events SPC Publications SPC services. Forecast Products Current Weather Watches This is the current graphic showing any severe

  11. Introduction to the Box Particle Filtering

    OpenAIRE

    Gning, Amadou; Ristic, B; Mihaylova, Lyudmila; Abdallah, F.

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a novel method for solving nonlinear filtering problems. This approach is particularly appealing in practical situations involving imprecise stochastic measurements, thus resulting in very broad posterior densities. It relies on the concept of a box particle, which occupies a small and controllable rectangular region having a non-zero volume in the state space. Key advantages of the box particle filter (Box-PF) against the standard particle filter (PF) are in its reduced c...

  12. Two particle states in an asymmetric box

    OpenAIRE

    Li, Xin; Liu, Chuan

    2004-01-01

    The exact two-particle energy eigenstates in an asymmetric rectangular box with periodic boundary conditions in all three directions are studied. Their relation with the elastic scattering phases of the two particles in the continuum are obtained. These results can be viewed as a generalization of the corresponding formulae in a cubic box obtained by L\\"uscher before. In particular, the s-wave scattering length is related to the energy shift in the finite box. Possible applications of these f...

  13. The three-box paradox revisited

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ravon, Tamar; Vaidman, Lev

    2007-01-01

    The classical three-box paradox of Kirkpatrick (2003 J. Phys. A: Math. Gen. 36 4891) is compared to the original quantum three-box paradox of Aharonov and Vaidman (1991 J. Phys. A: Math. Gen. 24 2315). It is argued that the quantum three-box experiment is a 'quantum paradox' in the sense that it is an example of a classical task which cannot be accomplished using classical means, but can be accomplished using quantum devices. It is shown that Kirkpatrick's card game is analogous to a different game with a particle in three boxes which does not contain paradoxical features

  14. Dimension measuring method for channel box

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jo, Hiroto.

    1995-01-01

    The device of the present invention concerns detection of a channel box for spent fuel assemblies of a BWR type reactor, which measures a cross sectional shape and dimension of the channel box to check deformation amount such as expansion. That is, a customary fuel exchanger and a dimension measuring device are used. The lower end of the channel box is measured by a distance sensor of the dimension measuring device when it is aligned with a position of the distance sensor. The channel box is lowered at the same time while detecting axial position data of the fuel exchanger. The position of the channel box in an axial direction is detected based on axial position data of the fuel exchanger. The lower end of the channel box can accurately be recognized by the detection of both of them. Subsequent deformation measurement for the channel box at accurate axial positions is enabled. In addition, since the axial position data of the fuel exchanger per se are detected, an axial profile of the channel box can be measured even if a lifting speed of the channel box is varied on every region. (I.S.)

  15. Repackaging SRS Black Box TRU Waste

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Swale, D. J.; Stone, K.A.; Milner, T. N.

    2006-01-01

    Historically, large items of TRU Waste, which were too large to be packaged in drums for disposal have been packaged in various sizes of custom made plywood boxes at the Savannah River Site (SRS), for many years. These boxes were subsequently packaged into large steel ''Black Boxes'' for storage at SRS, pending availability of Characterization and Certification capability, to facilitate disposal of larger items of TRU Waste. There are approximately 107 Black Boxes in inventory at SRS, each measuring some 18' x 12' x 7', and weighing up to 45,000 lbs. These Black Boxes have been stored since the early 1980s. The project to repackage this waste into Standard Large Boxes (SLBs), Standard Waste Boxes (SWB) and Ten Drum Overpacks (TDOP), for subsequent characterization and WIPP disposal, commenced in FY04. To date, 10 Black Boxes have been repackaged, resulting in 40 SLB-2's, and 37 B25 overpack boxes, these B25's will be overpacked in SLB-2's prior to shipping to WIPP. This paper will describe experience to date from this project

  16. VO₂ requirements of boxing exercises.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arseneau, Eric; Mekary, Saïd; Léger, Luc A

    2011-02-01

    The purpose of this study was to quantify the physiological requirements of various boxing exercises such as sparring, pad work, and punching bag. Because it was not possible to measure the oxygen uptake (VO₂) of "true" sparring with a collecting gas valve in the face, we developed and validated a method to measure VO₂ of "true" sparring based on "postexercise" measurements. Nine experienced male amateur boxers (Mean ± SD: age = 22.0 ± 3.5 years, height = 176.0 ± 8.0 cm, weight = 71.4 ± 10.9 kg, number of fights = 13.0 ± 9.5) of regional and provincial level volunteered to participate in 3 testing sessions: (a) maximal treadmill test in the LAB, (b) standardized boxing training in the GYM, and (c) standardized boxing exercises in the LAB. Measures of VO₂, heart rate (HR), blood lactate concentration [LA], rated perceived exertion level, and punching frequencies were collected. VO₂ values of 43.4 ± 5.9, 41.1 ± 5.1, 24.7 ± 6.1, 30.4 ± 5.8, and 38.3 ± 6.5 ml·kg⁻¹·min⁻¹ were obtained, which represent 69.7 ± 8.0, 66.1 ± 8.0, 39.8 ± 10.4, 48.8 ± 8.5, and 61.7 ± 10.3%VO₂peak for sparring, pad work, and punching bag at 60, 120, and 180 b·min⁻¹, respectively. Except for lower VO₂ values for punching the bag at 60 and 120 b·min⁻¹ (p < 0.05), there was no VO₂ difference between exercises. Similar pattern was obtained for %HRmax with respective values of 85.5 ± 5.9, 83.6 ± 6.3, 67.5 ± 3.5, 74.8 ± 5.9, and 83.0 ± 6.0. Finally, sparring %HRmax and [LA] were slightly higher in the GYM (91.7 ± 4.3 and 9.4 ± 2.2 mmol·L⁻¹) vs. LAB (85.5 ± 5.9 and 6.1 ± 2.3 mmol·L⁻¹). Thus, in this study simulated LAB sparring and pad work required similar VO₂ (43-41 ml·kg⁻¹·min⁻¹, respectively), which corresponds to ~70%VO₂peak. These results underline the importance of a minimum of aerobic fitness for boxers and draw some guidelines for the intensity of training.

  17. IMPROVED, FAVORABLE FOR ENVIRONMENT POLYURETHANE COLD-BOX-PROCESS (COLD BOX «HUTTENES-ALBERTUS» .

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Sergini

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available The results of the laboratory and industrial investigations, the purpose of which is improvement of the classical Cold-box-process, i.e. the process of the slugs hardening in cold boxes, are presented.

  18. Load forecasting for supermarket refrigeration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bacher, Peder; Madsen, Henrik; Aalborg Nielsen, Henrik

    This report presents a study of models for forecasting the load for supermarket refrigeration. The data used for building the forecasting models consists of load measurements, local climate measurements and weather forecasts. The load measurements are from a supermarket located in a village...... in Denmark. The load for refrigeration is the sum of all cabinets in the supermarket, both low and medium temperature cabinets, and spans a period of one year. As input to the forecasting models the ambient temperature observed near the supermarket together with weather forecasts are used. Every hour...

  19. VORONOI DIAGRAMS WITHOUT BOUNDING BOXES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. T. K. Sang

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available We present a technique for presenting geographic data in Voronoi diagrams without having to specify a bounding box. The method restricts Voronoi cells to points within a user-defined distance of the data points. The mathematical foundation of the approach is presented as well. The cell clipping method is particularly useful for presenting geographic data that is spread in an irregular way over a map, as for example the Dutch dialect data displayed in Figure 2. The automatic generation of reasonable cell boundaries also makes redundant a frequently used solution to this problem that requires data owners to specify region boundaries, as in Goebl (2010 and Nerbonne et al (2011.

  20. A non-Gaussian generalisation of the Airline model for robust Seasonal Adjustment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Aston, J.; Koopman, S.J.

    2006-01-01

    In their seminal book Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control, Box and Jenkins (1976) introduce the Airline model, which is still routinely used for the modelling of economic seasonal time series. The Airline model is for a differenced time series (in levels and seasons) and constitutes a

  1. Forecasting military expenditure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tobias Böhmelt

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available To what extent do frequently cited determinants of military spending allow us to predict and forecast future levels of expenditure? The authors draw on the data and specifications of a recent model on military expenditure and assess the predictive power of its variables using in-sample predictions, out-of-sample forecasts and Bayesian model averaging. To this end, this paper provides guidelines for prediction exercises in general using these three techniques. More substantially, however, the findings emphasize that previous levels of military spending as well as a country’s institutional and economic characteristics particularly improve our ability to predict future levels of investment in the military. Variables pertaining to the international security environment also matter, but seem less important. In addition, the results highlight that the updated model, which drops weak predictors, is not only more parsimonious, but also slightly more accurate than the original specification.

  2. The forecaster's added value

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turco, M.; Milelli, M.

    2009-09-01

    To the authors' knowledge there are relatively few studies that try to answer this topic: "Are humans able to add value to computer-generated forecasts and warnings ?". Moreover, the answers are not always positive. In particular some postprocessing method is competitive or superior to human forecast (see for instance Baars et al., 2005, Charba et al., 2002, Doswell C., 2003, Roebber et al., 1996, Sanders F., 1986). Within the alert system of ARPA Piemonte it is possible to study in an objective manner if the human forecaster is able to add value with respect to computer-generated forecasts. Every day the meteorology group of the Centro Funzionale of Regione Piemonte produces the HQPF (Human QPF) in terms of an areal average for each of the 13 regional warning areas, which have been created according to meteo-hydrological criteria. This allows the decision makers to produce an evaluation of the expected effects by comparing these HQPFs with predefined rainfall thresholds. Another important ingredient in this study is the very dense non-GTS network of rain gauges available that makes possible a high resolution verification. In this context the most useful verification approach is the measure of the QPF and HQPF skills by first converting precipitation expressed as continuous amounts into ‘‘exceedance'' categories (yes-no statements indicating whether precipitation equals or exceeds selected thresholds) and then computing the performances for each threshold. In particular in this work we compare the performances of the latest three years of QPF derived from two meteorological models COSMO-I7 (the Italian version of the COSMO Model, a mesoscale model developed in the framework of the COSMO Consortium) and IFS (the ECMWF global model) with the HQPF. In this analysis it is possible to introduce the hypothesis test developed by Hamill (1999), in which a confidence interval is calculated with the bootstrap method in order to establish the real difference between the

  3. Forecasting carbon dioxide emissions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Xiaobing; Du, Ding

    2015-09-01

    This study extends the literature on forecasting carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by applying the reduced-form econometrics approach of Schmalensee et al. (1998) to a more recent sample period, the post-1997 period. Using the post-1997 period is motivated by the observation that the strengthening pace of global climate policy may have been accelerated since 1997. Based on our parameter estimates, we project 25% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2050 according to an economic and population growth scenario that is more consistent with recent global trends. Our forecasts are conservative due to that we do not have sufficient data to fully take into account recent developments in the global economy. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Forecasting potential crises

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Neufeld, W.P.

    1984-01-01

    Recently, the Trend Analysis Program (TAP) of the American Council of Life Insurance commissioned the Futures Group of Glastonbury, Connecticut, to examine the potential for large-scale catastrophic events in the near future. TAP was specifically concerned with five potential crises: the warming of the earth's atmosphere, the water shortage, the collapse of the physical infrastructure, the global financial crisis, and the threat of nuclear war. We are often unprepared to take action; in these cases, we lose an advantage we might have otherwise had. This is the whole idea behind forecasting: to foresee possibilities and to project how we can respond. If we are able to create forecasts against which we can test policy options and choices, we may have the luxury of adopting policies ahead of events. Rather than simply fighting fires, we have the option of creating a future more to our choosing. Short descriptions of these five potential crises and, in some cases, possible solutions are presented

  5. Electrical requirements for unshielded glove boxes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1978-02-01

    The specification relates to the general design and installation of electrical services required in unshielded glove boxes in which atmospheres of air, argon or nitrogen etc. may exist either temporarily or permanently. The specification does not apply to electrical services for glove boxes with flammable explosive atmospheres. (author)

  6. British Box Business: A History of OCL

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Poulsen, René Taudal

    2018-01-01

    Book review of British Box Business: A History of OCL / edited by A. Bott SCARA, Goldaming, 2009, £17 (hb) 288 pages, illustrations, bibliography, index iSBn 139780955922701......Book review of British Box Business: A History of OCL / edited by A. Bott SCARA, Goldaming, 2009, £17 (hb) 288 pages, illustrations, bibliography, index iSBn 139780955922701...

  7. Box Plots in the Australian Curriculum

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watson, Jane M.

    2012-01-01

    This article compares the definition of "box plot" as used in the "Australian Curriculum: Mathematics" with other definitions used in the education community; describes the difficulties students experience when dealing with box plots; and discusses the elaboration that is necessary to enable teachers to develop the knowledge…

  8. Opportunities in white-box cryptography

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Michiels, W.

    White-box cryptography is the discipline of implementing a cryptographic algorithm in software such that an adversary will have difficulty extracting the cryptographic key. This approach assumes that the adversary has full access to and full control over the implementation's execution. White-box

  9. Modern biotechnology Panacea or new Pandora's box?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tramper, J.; Yang Zhu, Yang

    2011-01-01

    According to Greek mythology Pandora was sent down to earth upon the orders of Zeus. She was given a mysterious box which she was not allowed to open. However, Pandora was very curious and when she arrived on earth she couldn?t help taking a peek inside the box. She saw that it was filled with gifts

  10. DISTORTION ANALYSIS OF TILL -WALLED BOX GIRDERS

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    NIJOTECH

    bridges, buildings, motor vehicles, ships and aircrafts. Due to thinness of the box walls, generalized loads applied to this structure give rise to warping and distortion of ..... Recommendation for Design of. Intermediate Diaphragms in Box. Girders, Transactions of Japanese. Society of Civil Engineers, Vol. 14,1984, pp 121-126.

  11. Magnetorotational Dynamo Action in the Shearing Box

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walker, Justin; Boldyrev, Stanislav

    2017-10-01

    Magnetic dynamo action caused by the magnetorotational instability is studied in the shearing-box approximation with no imposed net magnetic flux. Consistent with recent studies, the dynamo action is found to be sensitive to the aspect ratio of the box: it is much easier to obtain in tall boxes (stretched in the direction normal to the disk plane) than in long boxes (stretched in the radial direction). Our direct numerical simulations indicate that the dynamo is possible in both cases, given a large enough magnetic Reynolds number. To explain the relatively larger effort required to obtain the dynamo action in a long box, we propose that the turbulent eddies caused by the instability most efficiently fold and mix the magnetic field lines in the radial direction. As a result, in the long box the scale of the generated strong azimuthal (stream-wise directed) magnetic field is always comparable to the scale of the turbulent eddies. In contrast, in the tall box the azimuthal magnetic flux spreads in the vertical direction over a distance exceeding the scale of the turbulent eddies. As a result, different vertical sections of the tall box are permeated by large-scale nonzero azimuthal magnetic fluxes, facilitating the instability. NSF AGS-1261659, Vilas Associates Award, NSF-Teragrid Project TG-PHY110016.

  12. Cosmetic Foot Surgery: Fashion's Pandora's Box

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Fashion’s Pandora’s Box? A A A | Print | Share Cosmetic Foot Surgery: Fashion’s Pandora’s Box? Foot and ankle ... extreme and imprudent as it may sound, the cosmetic surgery craze is not just for faces anymore— ...

  13. Boxing Injuries from an Instructional Program.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Welch, Michael J.; And Others

    1986-01-01

    This paper describes the safeguards as well as the injury pattern of the boxing program at the US Military Academy at West Point from 1983 to 1985. About 2,100 cadets received boxing instruction during this period with an injury rate of less than four percent. (Author/MT)

  14. Boxing against drones : Drones in sports education

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zwaan, S.G.; Barakova, E.I.

    2016-01-01

    This paper investigates how drones could be integrated into the context of sports, boxing in particular. The goal of this project is to design a drone application that allows direct and embodied interaction. The sport of boxing provides a very interesting setting, because the intimidating and

  15. Forecasting oilfield economic performance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bradley, M.E.; Wood, A.R.O.

    1994-01-01

    This paper presents a general method for forecasting oilfield economic performance that integrates cost data with operational, reservoir, and financial information. Practices are developed for determining economic limits for an oil field and its components. The economic limits of marginal wells and the role of underground competition receive special attention. Also examined is the influence of oil prices on operating costs. Examples illustrate application of these concepts. Categorization of costs for historical tracking and projections is recommended

  16. Frost Forecasting for Fruitgrowers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martsolf, J. D.; Chen, E.

    1983-01-01

    Progress in forecasting from satellite data reviewed. University study found data from satellites displayed in color and used to predict frost are valuable aid to agriculture. Study evaluated scheme to use Earth-temperature data from Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite in computer model that determines when and where freezing temperatures endanger developing fruit crops, such as apples, peaches and cherries in spring and citrus crops in winter.

  17. Uranium price forecasting methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fuller, D.M.

    1994-01-01

    This article reviews a number of forecasting methods that have been applied to uranium prices and compares their relative strengths and weaknesses. The methods reviewed are: (1) judgemental methods, (2) technical analysis, (3) time-series methods, (4) fundamental analysis, and (5) econometric methods. Historically, none of these methods has performed very well, but a well-thought-out model is still useful as a basis from which to adjust to new circumstances and try again

  18. PyForecastTools

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2017-09-22

    The PyForecastTools package provides Python routines for calculating metrics for model validation, forecast verification and model comparison. For continuous predictands the package provides functions for calculating bias (mean error, mean percentage error, median log accuracy, symmetric signed bias), and for calculating accuracy (mean squared error, mean absolute error, mean absolute scaled error, normalized RMSE, median symmetric accuracy). Convenience routines to calculate the component parts (e.g. forecast error, scaled error) of each metric are also provided. To compare models the package provides: generic skill score; percent better. Robust measures of scale including median absolute deviation, robust standard deviation, robust coefficient of variation and the Sn estimator are all provided by the package. Finally, the package implements Python classes for NxN contingency tables. In the case of a multi-class prediction, accuracy and skill metrics such as proportion correct and the Heidke and Peirce skill scores are provided as object methods. The special case of a 2x2 contingency table inherits from the NxN class and provides many additional metrics for binary classification: probability of detection, probability of false detection, false alarm ration, threat score, equitable threat score, bias. Confidence intervals for many of these quantities can be calculated using either the Wald method or Agresti-Coull intervals.

  19. Seismic forecast using geostatistics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grecu, Valeriu; Mateiciuc, Doru

    2007-01-01

    The main idea of this research direction consists in the special way of constructing a new type of mathematical function as being a correlation between a computed statistical quantity and another physical quantity. This type of function called 'position function' was taken over by the authors of this study in the field of seismology with the hope of solving - at least partially - the difficult problem of seismic forecast. The geostatistic method of analysis focuses on the process of energy accumulation in a given seismic area, completing this analysis by a so-called loading function. This function - in fact a temporal function - describes the process of energy accumulation during a seismic cycle from a given seismic area. It was possible to discover a law of evolution of the seismic cycles that was materialized in a so-called characteristic function. This special function will help us to forecast the magnitude and the occurrence moment of the largest earthquake in the analysed area. Since 2000, the authors have been evolving to a new stage of testing: real - time analysis, in order to verify the quality of the method. There were five large earthquakes forecasts. (authors)

  20. Statistical methods for forecasting

    CERN Document Server

    Abraham, Bovas

    2009-01-01

    The Wiley-Interscience Paperback Series consists of selected books that have been made more accessible to consumers in an effort to increase global appeal and general circulation. With these new unabridged softcover volumes, Wiley hopes to extend the lives of these works by making them available to future generations of statisticians, mathematicians, and scientists."This book, it must be said, lives up to the words on its advertising cover: ''Bridging the gap between introductory, descriptive approaches and highly advanced theoretical treatises, it provides a practical, intermediate level discussion of a variety of forecasting tools, and explains how they relate to one another, both in theory and practice.'' It does just that!"-Journal of the Royal Statistical Society"A well-written work that deals with statistical methods and models that can be used to produce short-term forecasts, this book has wide-ranging applications. It could be used in the context of a study of regression, forecasting, and time series ...

  1. 49 CFR 178.515 - Standards for reconstituted wood boxes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... wood boxes. (a) The identification code for a reconstituted wood box is 4F. (b) Construction requirements for reconstituted wood boxes are as follows: (1) The walls of boxes must be made of water... 49 Transportation 2 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Standards for reconstituted wood boxes. 178.515...

  2. North American box turtles: A natural history

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dodd, C. Kenneth

    2002-01-01

    Once a familiar backyard visitor in many parts of the United States and Mexico, the box turtle is losing the battle against extinction. In North American Box Turtles, C. Kenneth Dodd, Jr., has written the first book-length natural history of the twelve species and subspecies of this endangered animal. This volume includes comprehensive information on the species’ evolution, behavior, courtship and reproduction, habitat use, diet, population structure, systematics, and disease. Special features include color photos of all species, subspecies, and their habitats; a simple identification guide to both living and fossil species; and a summary of information on fossil Terrapene and Native uses of box turtles. End-of-chapter sections highlight future research directions, including the need for long-term monitoring and observation of box turtles within their natural habitat and conservation applications. A glossary and a bibliography of literature on box turtles accompany the text.

  3. Dustproof cooling of the electrical box

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nemec Patrik

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available In present are electrical boxes cooled by air through the intake hole on the bottom electrical box to the box space with electrotechnical elements and exhaust through the hole at the top to the surrounding by natural convection. This cooling method is effective but operate with the risk of contamination electrotechnical elements by dust sucking from surrounding air. The goal of this work is solution of the dustproof cooling of the electrical box by natural convection. The work deal with design of the device with the heat transfer by the phase change of the working fluid and experimental measuring its thermal performance at the cooling electrotechnical elements loaded by heat 1 200 W in the dustproof electrical box.

  4. Analysing UK real estate market forecast disagreement

    OpenAIRE

    McAllister, Patrick; Newell, G.; Matysiak, George

    2005-01-01

    Given the significance of forecasting in real estate investment decisions, this paper investigates forecast uncertainty and disagreement in real estate market forecasts. Using the Investment Property Forum (IPF) quarterly survey amongst UK independent real estate forecasters, these real estate forecasts are compared with actual real estate performance to assess a number of real estate forecasting issues in the UK over 1999-2004, including real estate forecast error, bias and consensus. The re...

  5. Effective Feature Preprocessing for Time Series Forecasting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhao, Junhua; Dong, Zhaoyang; Xu, Zhao

    2006-01-01

    Time series forecasting is an important area in data mining research. Feature preprocessing techniques have significant influence on forecasting accuracy, therefore are essential in a forecasting model. Although several feature preprocessing techniques have been applied in time series forecasting...... performance in time series forecasting. It is demonstrated in our experiment that, effective feature preprocessing can significantly enhance forecasting accuracy. This research can be a useful guidance for researchers on effectively selecting feature preprocessing techniques and integrating them with time...... series forecasting models....

  6. EU pharmaceutical expenditure forecast.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Urbinati, Duccio; Rémuzat, Cécile; Kornfeld, Åsa; Vataire, Anne-Lise; Cetinsoy, Laurent; Aballéa, Samuel; Mzoughi, Olfa; Toumi, Mondher

    2014-01-01

    With constant incentives for healthcare payers to contain their pharmaceutical budgets, forecasting has become critically important. Some countries have, for instance, developed pharmaceutical horizon scanning units. The objective of this project was to build a model to assess the net effect of the entrance of new patented medicinal products versus medicinal products going off-patent, with a defined forecast horizon, on selected European Union (EU) Member States' pharmaceutical budgets. This model took into account population ageing, as well as current and future country-specific pricing, reimbursement, and market access policies (the project was performed for the European Commission; see http://ec.europa.eu/health/healthcare/key_documents/index_en.htm). In order to have a representative heterogeneity of EU Member States, the following countries were selected for the analysis: France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Poland, Portugal, and the United Kingdom. A forecasting period of 5 years (2012-2016) was chosen to assess the net pharmaceutical budget impact. A model for generics and biosimilars was developed for each country. The model estimated a separate and combined effect of the direct and indirect impacts of the patent cliff. A second model, estimating the sales development and the risk of development failure, was developed for new drugs. New drugs were reviewed individually to assess their clinical potential and translate it into commercial potential. The forecast was carried out according to three perspectives (healthcare public payer, society, and manufacturer), and several types of distribution chains (retail, hospital, and combined retail and hospital). Probabilistic and deterministic sensitivity analyses were carried out. According to the model, all countries experienced drug budget reductions except Poland (+€41 million). Savings were expected to be the highest in the United Kingdom (-€9,367 million), France (-€5,589 million), and, far behind them

  7. Projected Applications of a "Climate in a Box" Computing System at the NASA Short-Term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jedlovec, Gary J.; Molthan, Andrew L.; Zavodsky, Bradley; Case, Jonathan L.; LaFontaine, Frank J.

    2010-01-01

    The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center focuses on the transition of unique observations and research capabilities to the operational weather community, with a goal of improving short-term forecasts on a regional scale. Advances in research computing have lead to "Climate in a Box" systems, with hardware configurations capable of producing high resolution, near real-time weather forecasts, but with footprints, power, and cooling requirements that are comparable to desktop systems. The SPoRT Center has developed several capabilities for incorporating unique NASA research capabilities and observations with real-time weather forecasts. Planned utilization includes the development of a fully-cycled data assimilation system used to drive 36-48 hour forecasts produced by the NASA Unified version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model (NU-WRF). The horsepower provided by the "Climate in a Box" system is expected to facilitate the assimilation of vertical profiles of temperature and moisture provided by the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) aboard the NASA Aqua satellite. In addition, the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instruments aboard NASA s Aqua and Terra satellites provide high-resolution sea surface temperatures and vegetation characteristics. The development of MODIS normalized difference vegetation index (NVDI) composites for use within the NASA Land Information System (LIS) will assist in the characterization of vegetation, and subsequently the surface albedo and processes related to soil moisture. Through application of satellite simulators, NASA satellite instruments can be used to examine forecast model errors in cloud cover and other characteristics. Through the aforementioned application of the "Climate in a Box" system and NU-WRF capabilities, an end goal is the establishment of a real-time forecast system that fully integrates modeling and analysis capabilities developed within the NASA SPo

  8. La compañía del asiento y la guerra de la oreja de Jenkins: sus causas económicas y algunos aspectos contables relacionados

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rafael Donoso Anes

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available Por el tratado de Utrecht de 1713 el Asiento de esclavos pasaría a manos de Inglaterra, cuya soberana concedería su desarrollo práctico a la Compañía del Mar del Sur, la cual, con muchos altibajos, lo conservaría hasta la denominada Guerra de la Oreja de Jenkins o guerra del Asiento que estalló en 1739, enfrentando a la corona española y británica durante un período de casi diez años, hasta la paz de Aquisgrán de 1748 y que desembocaría, en 1750, en un tratado particular con Inglaterra que llevaría a la culminación definitiva del Asiento. En relación con este tema hay un aspecto, apenas reconocido hasta ahora en otros trabajos de investigación históricos y que se refiere al importante papel que desempeñó en el desenvolvimiento del Asiento la contabilidad, o mejor las cuentas que, de forma reiterada, se solicitaban a la Compañía del Mar de Sur por parte de la Corona española, en cuyo negocio participaba con una cuarta parte y que, por el articulado del Asiento, estaba la Compañía obligada a presentar periódicamente. Este conflicto de carácter contable se unió a otros muchos que, finalmente, desembocaron, como tendremos ocasión de analizar, en la denominada “Guerra de la Oreja de Jenkins” en 1739, conflicto que ha sido analizado por algunos historiadores, entre los que destacamos a Béthencourt Massieu (1989 y 1998 por ser de los pocos que reconocen que, a las causas políticas y diplomáticas que promovieron los conflictos entre las dos naciones, hay que añadir “el de las frecuentes peticiones de cuentas por Felipe V y el pago de sus beneficios conforme a los plazos señalados por los tratados” (1998, p. 184.En este trabajo de investigación analizamos algunas de las causas que motivaron el conflicto entre ambas naciones, poniendo un énfasis especial en los aspectos económicos y contables derivados de las relaciones comerciales e intereses económicos que la monarquía española tenía en el Asiento de

  9. The ocular complications of boxing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giovinazzo, V J; Yannuzzi, L A; Sorenson, J A; Delrowe, D J; Cambell, E A

    1987-06-01

    In cooperation with the New York State Athletic Commission, 74 boxers applying for a new or yearly renewal license were sequentially referred over a 2-year period for a complete dilated ocular examination at the Sports Vision Institute of the Manhattan Eye, Ear and Throat Hospital. At least one ocular injury was found in 66% of boxers. Vision-threatening injuries, defined as significant damage to the angle, lens, macula, or peripheral retina occurred in 58% of boxers. Nineteen percent of boxers had angle abnormalities. Nineteen percent of boxers had pathologic cataracts, over 70% of these were posterior subcapsular. Six boxers had macular lesions. A total of 24% of boxers had retinal tears. Standardized photographs were used to distinguish pathologic cataracts from congenital opacities and pathologic retinal tears from atrophic holes. Attempts were made to identify risk factors in boxing that might be predictive for ocular injury. Variables included age, weight division, left- or right-handedness, total number of losses, and total number of bouts. Significant correlations were found between the total number of bouts and the total number of losses, and the presence of retinal tears. College varsity athletes were selected as controls. Significant differences were found between boxers and controls for the total number of injuries, total vision-threatening injuries, and the number of retinal tears. A series of recommendations are proposed to aide in the early detection and prevention of serious ocular injuries.

  10. Evaluation of Probabilistic Disease Forecasts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hughes, Gareth; Burnett, Fiona J

    2017-10-01

    The statistical evaluation of probabilistic disease forecasts often involves calculation of metrics defined conditionally on disease status, such as sensitivity and specificity. However, for the purpose of disease management decision making, metrics defined conditionally on the result of the forecast-predictive values-are also important, although less frequently reported. In this context, the application of scoring rules in the evaluation of probabilistic disease forecasts is discussed. An index of separation with application in the evaluation of probabilistic disease forecasts, described in the clinical literature, is also considered and its relation to scoring rules illustrated. Scoring rules provide a principled basis for the evaluation of probabilistic forecasts used in plant disease management. In particular, the decomposition of scoring rules into interpretable components is an advantageous feature of their application in the evaluation of disease forecasts.

  11. Design report for shielded glove box

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ku, J. H.; Lee, J. C.; Seo, K. S.; Bang, K. S.; Lee, D. W.; Kim, J. H.; Min, D. K.; Park, S. W.

    1999-05-01

    For the examination of spent fuels and high radioactive specimens using a specially equipped scanning electron microscope, a shielded glove box was designed and constructed at PIE facility of KAERI. This glove box consisted of shielding walls, containment box, lead glasses, manipulators, gloves, ventilation systems, doors, hot-cell specimen cask adapter, etc. It was emphasized that both the easy operation and radiation safety are important factors in the shielded glove box were installed also considered as a important factor to build the basic concept of the assembling. Two sliding doors and one hinge-type door were installed for the easy installation, operation and maintenance of scanning electron microscope. Containment box which confines the radioactive material into the box consisted of reinforced transparent glasses, aluminum frames and stainless steel plate liner. Therefore everything beyond the containment box can be seen through the lead glass which installed at the front shielding wall. All shielding walls and doors were introduced separately into the room and assembled by bolting. (author). 3 refs., 5 tabs., 18 figs

  12. Operational hydrological forecasting in Bavaria. Part I: Forecast uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ehret, U.; Vogelbacher, A.; Moritz, K.; Laurent, S.; Meyer, I.; Haag, I.

    2009-04-01

    In Bavaria, operational flood forecasting has been established since the disastrous flood of 1999. Nowadays, forecasts based on rainfall information from about 700 raingauges and 600 rivergauges are calculated and issued for nearly 100 rivergauges. With the added experience of the 2002 and 2005 floods, awareness grew that the standard deterministic forecast, neglecting the uncertainty associated with each forecast is misleading, creating a false feeling of unambiguousness. As a consequence, a system to identify, quantify and communicate the sources and magnitude of forecast uncertainty has been developed, which will be presented in part I of this study. In this system, the use of ensemble meteorological forecasts plays a key role which will be presented in part II. Developing the system, several constraints stemming from the range of hydrological regimes and operational requirements had to be met: Firstly, operational time constraints obviate the variation of all components of the modeling chain as would be done in a full Monte Carlo simulation. Therefore, an approach was chosen where only the most relevant sources of uncertainty were dynamically considered while the others were jointly accounted for by static error distributions from offline analysis. Secondly, the dominant sources of uncertainty vary over the wide range of forecasted catchments: In alpine headwater catchments, typically of a few hundred square kilometers in size, rainfall forecast uncertainty is the key factor for forecast uncertainty, with a magnitude dynamically changing with the prevailing predictability of the atmosphere. In lowland catchments encompassing several thousands of square kilometers, forecast uncertainty in the desired range (usually up to two days) is mainly dependent on upstream gauge observation quality, routing and unpredictable human impact such as reservoir operation. The determination of forecast uncertainty comprised the following steps: a) From comparison of gauge

  13. A Bayesian joint probability modeling approach for seasonal forecasting of streamflows at multiple sites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Q. J.; Robertson, D. E.; Chiew, F. H. S.

    2009-05-01

    Seasonal forecasting of streamflows can be highly valuable for water resources management. In this paper, a Bayesian joint probability (BJP) modeling approach for seasonal forecasting of streamflows at multiple sites is presented. A Box-Cox transformed multivariate normal distribution is proposed to model the joint distribution of future streamflows and their predictors such as antecedent streamflows and El Niño-Southern Oscillation indices and other climate indicators. Bayesian inference of model parameters and uncertainties is implemented using Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling, leading to joint probabilistic forecasts of streamflows at multiple sites. The model provides a parametric structure for quantifying relationships between variables, including intersite correlations. The Box-Cox transformed multivariate normal distribution has considerable flexibility for modeling a wide range of predictors and predictands. The Bayesian inference formulated allows the use of data that contain nonconcurrent and missing records. The model flexibility and data-handling ability means that the BJP modeling approach is potentially of wide practical application. The paper also presents a number of statistical measures and graphical methods for verification of probabilistic forecasts of continuous variables. Results for streamflows at three river gauges in the Murrumbidgee River catchment in southeast Australia show that the BJP modeling approach has good forecast quality and that the fitted model is consistent with observed data.

  14. Hybrid Stochastic Forecasting Model for Management of Large Open Water Reservoir with Storage Function

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kozel, Tomas; Stary, Milos

    2017-12-01

    The main advantage of stochastic forecasting is fan of possible value whose deterministic method of forecasting could not give us. Future development of random process is described better by stochastic then deterministic forecasting. Discharge in measurement profile could be categorized as random process. Content of article is construction and application of forecasting model for managed large open water reservoir with supply function. Model is based on neural networks (NS) and zone models, which forecasting values of average monthly flow from inputs values of average monthly flow, learned neural network and random numbers. Part of data was sorted to one moving zone. The zone is created around last measurement average monthly flow. Matrix of correlation was assembled only from data belonging to zone. The model was compiled for forecast of 1 to 12 month with using backward month flows (NS inputs) from 2 to 11 months for model construction. Data was got ridded of asymmetry with help of Box-Cox rule (Box, Cox, 1964), value r was found by optimization. In next step were data transform to standard normal distribution. The data were with monthly step and forecast is not recurring. 90 years long real flow series was used for compile of the model. First 75 years were used for calibration of model (matrix input-output relationship), last 15 years were used only for validation. Outputs of model were compared with real flow series. For comparison between real flow series (100% successfully of forecast) and forecasts, was used application to management of artificially made reservoir. Course of water reservoir management using Genetic algorithm (GE) + real flow series was compared with Fuzzy model (Fuzzy) + forecast made by Moving zone model. During evaluation process was founding the best size of zone. Results show that the highest number of input did not give the best results and ideal size of zone is in interval from 25 to 35, when course of management was almost same for

  15. Global Energy Forecasting Competition 2012

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hong, Tao; Pinson, Pierre; Fan, Shu

    2014-01-01

    The Global Energy Forecasting Competition (GEFCom2012) attracted hundreds of participants worldwide, who contributed many novel ideas to the energy forecasting field. This paper introduces both tracks of GEFCom2012, hierarchical load forecasting and wind power forecasting, with details...... on the aspects of the problem, the data, and a summary of the methods used by selected top entries. We also discuss the lessons learned from this competition from the organizers’ perspective. The complete data set, including the solution data, is published along with this paper, in an effort to establish...

  16. Two particle states in an asymmetric box

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li Xin; Liu Chuan

    2004-01-01

    The exact two-particle energy eigenstates in an asymmetric rectangular box with periodic boundary conditions in all three directions are studied. Their relation with the elastic scattering phases of the two particles in the continuum are obtained. These results can be viewed as a generalization of the corresponding formulae in a cubic box obtained by Luescher before. In particular, the s-wave scattering length is related to the energy shift in the finite box. Possible applications of these formulae are also discussed

  17. Forecasting in Complex Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rundle, J. B.; Holliday, J. R.; Graves, W. R.; Turcotte, D. L.; Donnellan, A.

    2014-12-01

    Complex nonlinear systems are typically characterized by many degrees of freedom, as well as interactions between the elements. Interesting examples can be found in the areas of earthquakes and finance. In these two systems, fat tails play an important role in the statistical dynamics. For earthquake systems, the Gutenberg-Richter magnitude-frequency is applicable, whereas for daily returns for the securities in the financial markets are known to be characterized by leptokurtotic statistics in which the tails are power law. Very large fluctuations are present in both systems. In earthquake systems, one has the example of great earthquakes such as the M9.1, March 11, 2011 Tohoku event. In financial systems, one has the example of the market crash of October 19, 1987. Both were largely unexpected events that severely impacted the earth and financial systems systemically. Other examples include the M9.3 Andaman earthquake of December 26, 2004, and the Great Recession which began with the fall of Lehman Brothers investment bank on September 12, 2013. Forecasting the occurrence of these damaging events has great societal importance. In recent years, national funding agencies in a variety of countries have emphasized the importance of societal relevance in research, and in particular, the goal of improved forecasting technology. Previous work has shown that both earthquakes and financial crashes can be described by a common Landau-Ginzburg-type free energy model. These metastable systems are characterized by fat tail statistics near the classical spinodal. Correlations in these systems can grow and recede, but do not imply causation, a common source of misunderstanding. In both systems, a common set of techniques can be used to compute the probabilities of future earthquakes or crashes. In this talk, we describe the basic phenomenology of these systems and emphasize their similarities and differences. We also consider the problem of forecast validation and verification

  18. MADS-box gene evolution - structure and transcription patterns

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Johansen, Bo; Pedersen, Louise Buchholt; Skipper, Martin

    2002-01-01

    Mads-box genes, ABC model, Evolution, Phylogeny, Transcription patterns, Gene structure, Conserved motifs......Mads-box genes, ABC model, Evolution, Phylogeny, Transcription patterns, Gene structure, Conserved motifs...

  19. Flood Forecasting Based on TIGGE Precipitation Ensemble Forecast

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jinyin Ye

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available TIGGE (THORPEX International Grand Global Ensemble was a major part of the THORPEX (Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment. It integrates ensemble precipitation products from all the major forecast centers in the world and provides systematic evaluation on the multimodel ensemble prediction system. Development of meteorologic-hydrologic coupled flood forecasting model and early warning model based on the TIGGE precipitation ensemble forecast can provide flood probability forecast, extend the lead time of the flood forecast, and gain more time for decision-makers to make the right decision. In this study, precipitation ensemble forecast products from ECMWF, NCEP, and CMA are used to drive distributed hydrologic model TOPX. We focus on Yi River catchment and aim to build a flood forecast and early warning system. The results show that the meteorologic-hydrologic coupled model can satisfactorily predict the flow-process of four flood events. The predicted occurrence time of peak discharges is close to the observations. However, the magnitude of the peak discharges is significantly different due to various performances of the ensemble prediction systems. The coupled forecasting model can accurately predict occurrence of the peak time and the corresponding risk probability of peak discharge based on the probability distribution of peak time and flood warning, which can provide users a strong theoretical foundation and valuable information as a promising new approach.

  20. FORECASTING NEW PRODUCT SALES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Siriram

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available

    ENGLISH ABSTRACT: This paper tests the accuracy of using Linear regression, Logistics regression, and Bass curves in selected new product rollouts, based on sales data. The selected new products come from the electronics and electrical engineering and information and communications technology industries. The eight selected products are: electronic switchgear, electric motors, supervisory control and data acquisition systems, programmable logic controllers, cell phones, wireless modules, routers, and antennas. We compare the Linear regression, Logistics regression and Bass curves with respect to forecasting using analysis of variance. The accuracy of these three curves is studied and conclusions are drawn. We use an expert panel to compare the different curves and provide lessons for managers to improve forecasting new product sales. In addition, comparison between the two industries is drawn, and areas for further research are indicated.

    AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Hierdie artikel toets die akkuraatheid van die gebruik van linêere regressie, logistiese regressie en Bass-krommes by die bekendstelling van nuwe produkte gebaseer op verkoopsdata. Die geselekteerde nuwe produkte is uit die elektriese en elektroniese asook informasietegnologie- en kommunikasie bedrywe. Linêere regressie, logistiese regressie en Bass-krommes word vergelyk ten opsigte van vooruitskatting deur variansie te ontleed. Die akkuraatheid word ontleed en gevolgtrekkings gemaak. Die doel is om vooruitskatting van nuwe produkverkope te verbeter.

  1. Issues in Forecasting CMEs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pizzo, V. J.

    2017-12-01

    I will present my view of the current status of space weather forecasting abilities related to CMEs. This talk will address the large-scale aspects, but specifically not energetic particle phenomena. A key point is that all models, whether sophisticated numerical contraptions or quasi-empirical ones, are only as good as the data you feed them. Hence the emphasis will be on observations and analysis methods. First I will review where we stand with regard to the near-Sun quantitative data needed to drive any model, no matter how complex or simple-minded, and I will discuss technological roadblocks that suggest it may be some time before we see any meaningful improvements beyond what we have today. Then I cover issues related to characterizing CME propagation out through the corona and into interplanetary space, as well as to observational limitations in the vicinity of 1 AU. Since none of these observational constraints are likely to be resolved anytime soon, the real challenge is to make more informed use of what is available. Thus, this talk will focus on how we may identify and pursue the most profitable approaches, for both forecast and research applications. The discussion will highlight a number of promising leads, including those related to inclusion of solar backside information, joint magnetograph observations from L5 and Earth, how to use (not just run) ensembles, more rational use of HI observations, and suggestions for using cube-sats for deep space observations of CMEs and MCs.

  2. Packing a cake into a box

    KAUST Repository

    Skopenkov, Mikhail

    2011-01-01

    Given a triangular cake and a box in the shape of its mirror image, how can the cake be cut into a minimal number of pieces so that it can be put into the box? The cake has icing, so we are not allowed to put it into the box upside down. V. G. Boltyansky asked this question in 1977 and showed that three pieces always suffice. In this paper we provide examples of cakes that cannot be cut into two pieces to be put into the box. This shows that three is the answer to Boltyansky's question. We also give examples of cakes which can be cut into two pieces. © THE MATHEMATICAL ASSOCIATION OF AMERICA.

  3. A Lithium Vapor Box Divertor Similarity Experiment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cohen, Robert A.; Emdee, Eric D.; Goldston, Robert J.; Jaworski, Michael A.; Schwartz, Jacob A.

    2017-10-01

    A lithium vapor box divertor offers an alternate means of managing the extreme power density of divertor plasmas by leveraging gaseous lithium to volumetrically extract power. The vapor box divertor is a baffled slot with liquid lithium coated walls held at temperatures which increase toward the divertor floor. The resulting vapor pressure differential drives gaseous lithium from hotter chambers into cooler ones, where the lithium condenses and returns. A similarity experiment was devised to investigate the advantages offered by a vapor box divertor design. We discuss the design, construction, and early findings of the vapor box divertor experiment including vapor can construction, power transfer calculations, joint integrity tests, and thermocouple data logging. Heat redistribution of an incident plasma-based heat flux from a typical linear plasma device is also presented. This work supported by DOE Contract No. DE-AC02-09CH11466 and The Princeton Environmental Institute.

  4. Glove boxes. Dimensions and requirements. Draft

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1985-07-01

    The standard is to be applied to work done in glove-boxes, whereby either the personnel need to be protected from the damaging effects of the materials being handled, or the materials from the effects of the environment. It is to be applied to glove-boxes in which substances are handled which emit ionising radiation (radioactive substances). This norm is not restricted to glove-boxes in which processes are carried out on a technique scale. In accordance with this norm, only those pressures and temperatures are allowed to be present in the glove-boxes, that do not offer significantly from the work areas. Alongside the stipulations of this standard regard is also always to be taken of the regulations in the radiation protection ordinance. (orig./HP) [de

  5. Grey Box Modelling of Hydrological Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thordarson, Fannar Ørn

    of two papers where the stochastic differential equation based model is used for sewer runoff from a drainage system. A simple model is used to describe a complex rainfall-runoff process in a catchment, but the stochastic part of the system is formulated to include the increasing uncertainty when...... rainwater flows through the system, as well as describe the lower limit of the uncertainty when the flow approaches zero. The first paper demonstrates in detail the grey box model and all related transformations required to obtain a feasible model for the sewer runoff. In the last paper this model is used......The main topic of the thesis is grey box modelling of hydrologic systems, as well as formulation and assessment of their embedded uncertainties. Grey box model is a combination of a white box model, a physically-based model that is traditionally formulated using deterministic ordinary differential...

  6. EPA EcoBox Tools by Stressors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eco-Box is a toolbox for exposure assessors. Its purpose is to provide a compendium of exposure assessment and risk characterization tools that will present comprehensive step-by-step guidance and links to relevant exposure assessment data bases

  7. Packing a cake into a box

    KAUST Repository

    Skopenkov, Mikhail

    2011-05-01

    Given a triangular cake and a box in the shape of its mirror image, how can the cake be cut into a minimal number of pieces so that it can be put into the box? The cake has icing, so we are not allowed to put it into the box upside down. V. G. Boltyansky asked this question in 1977 and showed that three pieces always suffice. In this paper we provide examples of cakes that cannot be cut into two pieces to be put into the box. This shows that three is the answer to Boltyansky\\'s question. We also give examples of cakes which can be cut into two pieces. © THE MATHEMATICAL ASSOCIATION OF AMERICA.

  8. Spacer for supporting fuel element boxes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wild, E.

    1979-01-01

    A spacer plate unit arranged externally on each side and at a predetermined level of a polygonal fuel element box for mutually supporting, with respect to one another, a plurality of the fuel element boxes forming a fuel element bundle, is formed of a first and a second spacer plate part each having the same length and the same width and being constituted of unlike first and second materials, respectively. The first and second spacer plate parts of the several spacer plate units situated at the predetermined level are arranged in an alternating continuous series when viewed in the peripheral direction of the fuel element box, so that any two spacer plate units belonging to face-to-face oriented sides of two adjoining fuel element boxes in the fuel element bundle define interfaces of unlike materials

  9. Black-Box Search by Unbiased Variation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lehre, Per Kristian; Witt, Carsten

    2012-01-01

    The complexity theory for black-box algorithms, introduced by Droste, Jansen, and Wegener (Theory Comput. Syst. 39:525–544, 2006), describes common limits on the efficiency of a broad class of randomised search heuristics. There is an obvious trade-off between the generality of the black-box model...... and the strength of the bounds that can be proven in such a model. In particular, the original black-box model provides for well-known benchmark problems relatively small lower bounds, which seem unrealistic in certain cases and are typically not met by popular search heuristics.In this paper, we introduce a more...... restricted black-box model for optimisation of pseudo-Boolean functions which we claim captures the working principles of many randomised search heuristics including simulated annealing, evolutionary algorithms, randomised local search, and others. The key concept worked out is an unbiased variation operator...

  10. Study on structural integrity in box structures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Asano, Masayuki; Ueta, Masahiro; Kanaoka, Tadashi; Ikeuchi, Toshiaki; Kodama, Tetsuhiro.

    1991-01-01

    This study was carried out to give an experimental foundation to the structural integrity of a box structure. Crack growth tests were performed on the reduced scale models, simulating typical portions of the box structure, in air at room temperature. The results show that the amount of crack growth is too small to injure the structural integrity of the models for the postulated loading cycle, and make clear the effective structure against crack growth. (author)

  11. Random Young diagrams in a Rectangular Box

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Beltoft, Dan; Boutillier, Cédric; Enriquez, Nathanaël

    We exhibit the limit shape of random Young diagrams having a distribution proportional to the exponential of their area, and confined in a rectangular box. The Ornstein-Uhlenbeck bridge arises from the fluctuations around the limit shape.......We exhibit the limit shape of random Young diagrams having a distribution proportional to the exponential of their area, and confined in a rectangular box. The Ornstein-Uhlenbeck bridge arises from the fluctuations around the limit shape....

  12. Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) [1 Deg.

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) is a weather forecast model made up of 21 separate forecasts, or ensemble members. The National Centers for Environmental...

  13. Box-Cox transformation for QTL mapping.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Runqing; Yi, Nengjun; Xu, Shizhong

    2006-01-01

    The maximum likelihood method of QTL mapping assumes that the phenotypic values of a quantitative trait follow a normal distribution. If the assumption is violated, some forms of transformation should be taken to make the assumption approximately true. The Box-Cox transformation is a general transformation method which can be applied to many different types of data. The flexibility of the Box-Cox transformation is due to a variable, called transformation factor, appearing in the Box-Cox formula. We developed a maximum likelihood method that treats the transformation factor as an unknown parameter, which is estimated from the data simultaneously along with the QTL parameters. The method makes an objective choice of data transformation and thus can be applied to QTL analysis for many different types of data. Simulation studies show that (1) Box-Cox transformation can substantially increase the power of QTL detection; (2) Box-Cox transformation can replace some specialized transformation methods that are commonly used in QTL mapping; and (3) applying the Box-Cox transformation to data already normally distributed does not harm the result.

  14. Sport medicine and the ethics of boxing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leclerc, S.; Herrera, C. D.

    1999-01-01

    In the light of medical evidence of the health risks associated with boxing, a watchful agnostic position among sport physicians is no longer justifiable. The normal activity in a boxing match places the athletes at risk of head injury, some of which may be difficult to detect and impossible to repair. This suggests that sport physicians and others expert in the prevention and diagnosis of such injuries should take a public stand against boxing, as other medical associations have. Although there is a need for continuing research into the health risks, doctors can in the interim take steps to increase public awareness of these risks. Sport physicians in particular can make a strong public statement by also ending their professional involvement with boxing. This need not be interpreted as paternalism; doctors are qualified neither to make laws nor to restrict private behaviour. Sport physicians are, however, well equipped to advise those who do make laws and those who choose to engage in boxing. In the end, because this stance against boxing will probably reduce the number of brain injuries in certain athletes, autonomy will be preserved, rather than restricted. 


 PMID:10597855

  15. Amateur boxing: physical and physiological attributes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaabène, Helmi; Tabben, Montassar; Mkaouer, Bessem; Franchini, Emerson; Negra, Yassine; Hammami, Mehrez; Amara, Samiha; Chaabène, Raja Bouguezzi; Hachana, Younés

    2015-03-01

    Boxing is one of the oldest combat sports. The aim of the current review is to critically analyze the amateur boxer's physical and physiological characteristics and to provide practical recommendations for training as well as new areas of scientific research. High-level male and female boxers show a propensity for low body fat levels. Although studies on boxer somatotypes are limited, the available information shows that elite-level male boxers are characterized by a higher proportion of mesomorphy with a well-developed muscle mass and a low body fat level. To help support the overall metabolic demands of a boxing match and to accelerate the recovery process between rounds, athletes of both sexes require a high level of cardiorespiratory fitness. International boxers show a high peak and mean anaerobic power output. Muscle strength in both the upper and lower limbs is paramount for a fighter's victory and is one of the keys to success in boxing. As boxing punches are brief actions and very dynamic, high-level boxing performance requires well-developed muscle power in both the upper and lower limbs. Albeit limited, the available studies reveal that isometric strength is linked to high-level boxing performance. Future investigations into the physical and physiological attributes of boxers are required to enrich the current data set and to help create a suitable training program.

  16. Guidelines for forecasting energy demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sonino, T.

    1976-11-01

    Four methodologies for forecasting energy demand are reviewed here after considering the role of energy in the economy and the analysis of energy use in different economic sectors. The special case of Israel is considered throughout, and some forecasts for energy demands in the year 2000 are presented. An energy supply mix that may be considered feasible is proposed. (author)

  17. Regional-seasonal weather forecasting

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Abarbanel, H.; Foley, H.; MacDonald, G.; Rothaus, O.; Rudermann, M.; Vesecky, J.

    1980-08-01

    In the interest of allocating heating fuels optimally, the state-of-the-art for seasonal weather forecasting is reviewed. A model using an enormous data base of past weather data is contemplated to improve seasonal forecasts, but present skills do not make that practicable. 90 references. (PSB)

  18. Forecasting the future of biodiversity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fitzpatrick, M. C.; Sanders, Nate; Ferrier, Simon

    2011-01-01

    , but their application to forecasting climate change impacts on biodiversity has been limited. Here we compare forecasts of changes in patterns of ant biodiversity in North America derived from ensembles of single-species models to those from a multi-species modeling approach, Generalized Dissimilarity Modeling (GDM...... climate change impacts on biodiversity....

  19. Forecasts: uncertain, inaccurate and biased?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nicolaisen, Morten Skou; Ambrasaite, Inga; Salling, Kim Bang

    2012-01-01

    Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA) is the dominating methodology for appraisal of transport infrastructure projects across the globe. In order to adequately assess the costs and benefits of such projects two types of forecasts are crucial to the validity of the appraisal. First are the forecasts of cons....... It is recommended that more attention is given to monitoring completed projects so future forecasts can benefit from better data availability through systematic ex-post evaluations, and an example of how to utilize such data in practice is presented.......Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA) is the dominating methodology for appraisal of transport infrastructure projects across the globe. In order to adequately assess the costs and benefits of such projects two types of forecasts are crucial to the validity of the appraisal. First are the forecasts...... of construction costs, which account for the majority of total project costs. Second are the forecasts of travel time savings, which account for the majority of total project benefits. The latter of these is, inter alia, determined by forecasts of travel demand, which we shall use as a proxy for the forecasting...

  20. Ensemble hydromoeteorological forecasting in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lucatero Villasenor, Diana

    forecasts where a dampening of the differences of precipitation quality occurs. Seasonal meteorological forecasts are possible due to changes of large scale patterns of the ocean and land, such as el Niño, that evolve at a much slower pace than the atmosphere, which can have an impact on its evolution later...

  1. Now, Here's the Weather Forecast...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richardson, Mathew

    2013-01-01

    The Met Office has a long history of weather forecasting, creating tailored weather forecasts for customers across the world. Based in Exeter, the Met Office is also home to the Met Office Hadley Centre, a world-leading centre for the study of climate change and its potential impacts. Climate information from the Met Office Hadley Centre is used…

  2. Robust Building Energy Load Forecasting Using Physically-Based Kernel Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anand Krishnan Prakash

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Robust and accurate building energy load forecasting is important for helping building managers and utilities to plan, budget, and strategize energy resources in advance. With recent prevalent adoption of smart-meters in buildings, a significant amount of building energy consumption data became available. Many studies have developed physics-based white box models and data-driven black box models to predict building energy consumption; however, they require extensive prior knowledge about building system, need a large set of training data, or lack robustness to different forecasting scenarios. In this paper, we introduce a new building energy forecasting method based on Gaussian Process Regression (GPR that incorporates physical insights about load data characteristics to improve accuracy while reducing training requirements. The GPR is a non-parametric regression method that models the data as a joint Gaussian distribution with mean and covariance functions and forecast using the Bayesian updating. We model the covariance function of the GPR to reflect the data patterns in different forecasting horizon scenarios, as prior knowledge. Our method takes advantage of the modeling flexibility and computational efficiency of the GPR while benefiting from the physical insights to further improve the training efficiency and accuracy. We evaluate our method with three field datasets from two university campuses (Carnegie Mellon University and Stanford University for both short- and long-term load forecasting. The results show that our method performs more accurately, especially when the training dataset is small, compared to other state-of-the-art forecasting models (up to 2.95 times smaller prediction error.

  3. A flexible system to capture sample vials in a storage box - the box vial scanner.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nowakowski, Steven E; Kressin, Kenneth R; Deick, Steven D

    2009-01-01

    Tracking sample vials in a research environment is a critical task and doing so efficiently can have a large impact on productivity, especially in high volume laboratories. There are several challenges to automating the capture process, including the variety of containers used to store samples. We developed a fast and robust system to capture the location of sample vials being placed in storage that allows the laboratories the flexibility to use sample containers of varying dimensions. With a single scan, this device captures the box identifier, the vial identifier and the location of each vial within a freezer storage box. The sample vials are tracked through a barcode label affixed to the cap while the boxes are tracked by a barcode label on the side of the box. Scanning units are placed at the point of use and forward data to a sever application for processing the scanned data. Scanning units consist of an industrial barcode reader mounted in a fixture positioning the box for scanning and providing lighting during the scan. The server application transforms the scan data into a list of storage locations holding vial identifiers. The list is then transferred to the laboratory database. The box vial scanner captures the IDs and location information for an entire box of sample vials into the laboratory database in a single scan. The system accommodates a wide variety of vials sizes by inserting risers under the sample box and a variety of storage box layouts are supported via the processing algorithm on the server.

  4. Method of forecasting power distribution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaneto, Kunikazu.

    1981-01-01

    Purpose: To obtain forecasting results at high accuracy by reflecting the signals from neutron detectors disposed in the reactor core on the forecasting results. Method: An on-line computer transfers, to a simulator, those process data such as temperature and flow rate for coolants in each of the sections and various measuring signals such as control rod positions from the nuclear reactor. The simulator calculates the present power distribution before the control operation. The signals from the neutron detectors at each of the positions in the reactor core are estimated from the power distribution and errors are determined based on the estimated values and the measured values to determine the smooth error distribution in the axial direction. Then, input conditions at the time to be forecast are set by a data setter. The simulator calculates the forecast power distribution after the control operation based on the set conditions. The forecast power distribution is corrected using the error distribution. (Yoshino, Y.)

  5. Energy forecasts, perspectives and methods

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Svensson, J E; Mogren, A

    1984-01-01

    The authors have analyzed different methods for long term energy prognoses, in particular energy consumption forecasts. Energy supply and price prognoses are also treated, but in a less detailed manner. After defining and discussing the various methods/models used in forecasts, a generalized discussion of the influence on the prognoses from the perspectives (background factors, world view, norms, ideology) of the prognosis makers is given. Some basic formal demands that should be asked from any rational forecast are formulated and discussed. The authors conclude that different forecasting methodologies are supplementing each other. There is no best method, forecasts should be accepted as views of the future from differing perspectives. The primary prognostic problem is to show the possible futures, selecting the wanted future is a question of political process.

  6. Sirocco - Fukushima Forecast Description

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2011-01-01

    SYMPHONIE-NH is the non-hydrostatic ocean model following the Boussinesq hydrostatic SYMPHONIE-2010 model developed by the Sirocco system team (CNRS and Toulouse University). Both are using an Arakawa type finite difference method for the C grid. The R and D team generally gives priority to a physically based approach of modelling (global conservation of the mechanical energy, consistency of pressure and density, accuracy of the bottom pressure torque,...) that tends to favour low order and robust numerical schemes. Most of the physical and numerical options (Non-Hydrostatic, free surface, generalised coordinates combined to an ALE method,...) are particularly suitable for the coastal area. At the request of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA, March 14, 2011), SIROCCO is delivering every day a real time 6-day forecast bulletin of the dispersion in seawater of radionuclides emitted by the Fukushima nuclear plant. The simulations are based on the S2010.18 release of the 3D SIROCCO ocean circulation model. The system is operational since March 24 and the bulletin is available on an 'open-access' basis since March 28. The model uses a stretched horizontal grid with a variable horizontal resolution: from 600 m x 600 m at the nearest grid point from Fukushima, to 5 km x 5 km offshore. The initial fields (T, S, U, V, SSH) and the lateral open boundary conditions are provided by the Mercator PSY4V1R3 system (one field per day, horizontal resolution 1/12 deg. x 1/12 deg.). At the sea surface, the ocean model is forced by the meteorological fluxes delivered every 3 hours by ECMWF.i The tidal forcing at the lateral open boundaries is provided by the T-UGO model, implemented for this purpose by the SIROCCO team on the Japanese Pacific coast. Some details are given on the methodology: Bathymetry, Initialization and large scale forcing, Tides, Atmospheric forcing, Forecast protocol, and Scenario for radioactive tracers

  7. Sirocco - Fukushima Forecast Description

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2011-04-10

    SYMPHONIE-NH is the non-hydrostatic ocean model following the Boussinesq hydrostatic SYMPHONIE-2010 model developed by the Sirocco system team (CNRS and Toulouse University). Both are using an Arakawa type finite difference method for the C grid. The R and D team generally gives priority to a physically based approach of modelling (global conservation of the mechanical energy, consistency of pressure and density, accuracy of the bottom pressure torque,...) that tends to favour low order and robust numerical schemes. Most of the physical and numerical options (Non-Hydrostatic, free surface, generalised coordinates combined to an ALE method,...) are particularly suitable for the coastal area. At the request of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA, March 14, 2011), SIROCCO is delivering every day a real time 6-day forecast bulletin of the dispersion in seawater of radionuclides emitted by the Fukushima nuclear plant. The simulations are based on the S2010.18 release of the 3D SIROCCO ocean circulation model. The system is operational since March 24 and the bulletin is available on an 'open-access' basis since March 28. The model uses a stretched horizontal grid with a variable horizontal resolution: from 600 m x 600 m at the nearest grid point from Fukushima, to 5 km x 5 km offshore. The initial fields (T, S, U, V, SSH) and the lateral open boundary conditions are provided by the Mercator PSY4V1R3 system (one field per day, horizontal resolution 1/12 deg. x 1/12 deg.). At the sea surface, the ocean model is forced by the meteorological fluxes delivered every 3 hours by ECMWF.i The tidal forcing at the lateral open boundaries is provided by the T-UGO model, implemented for this purpose by the SIROCCO team on the Japanese Pacific coast. Some details are given on the methodology: Bathymetry, Initialization and large scale forcing, Tides, Atmospheric forcing, Forecast protocol, and Scenario for radioactive tracers

  8. Forecasting global atmospheric CO2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Agusti-Panareda, A.; Massart, S.; Boussetta, S.; Balsamo, G.; Beljaars, A.; Engelen, R.; Jones, L.; Peuch, V.H.; Chevallier, F.; Ciais, P.; Paris, J.D.; Sherlock, V.

    2014-01-01

    A new global atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) real-time forecast is now available as part of the preoperational Monitoring of Atmospheric Composition and Climate - Interim Implementation (MACC-II) service using the infrastructure of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Integrated Forecasting System (IFS). One of the strengths of the CO 2 forecasting system is that the land surface, including vegetation CO 2 fluxes, is modelled online within the IFS. Other CO 2 fluxes are prescribed from inventories and from off-line statistical and physical models. The CO 2 forecast also benefits from the transport modelling from a state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction (NWP) system initialized daily with a wealth of meteorological observations. This paper describes the capability of the forecast in modelling the variability of CO 2 on different temporal and spatial scales compared to observations. The modulation of the amplitude of the CO 2 diurnal cycle by near-surface winds and boundary layer height is generally well represented in the forecast. The CO 2 forecast also has high skill in simulating day-to-day synoptic variability. In the atmospheric boundary layer, this skill is significantly enhanced by modelling the day-to-day variability of the CO 2 fluxes from vegetation compared to using equivalent monthly mean fluxes with a diurnal cycle. However, biases in the modelled CO 2 fluxes also lead to accumulating errors in the CO 2 forecast. These biases vary with season with an underestimation of the amplitude of the seasonal cycle both for the CO 2 fluxes compared to total optimized fluxes and the atmospheric CO 2 compared to observations. The largest biases in the atmospheric CO 2 forecast are found in spring, corresponding to the onset of the growing season in the Northern Hemisphere. In the future, the forecast will be re-initialized regularly with atmospheric CO 2 analyses based on the assimilation of CO 2 products retrieved from satellite

  9. Exergaming boxing versus heavy-bag boxing: are these equipotent for individuals with spinal cord injury?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mat Rosly, Maziah; Mat Rosly, Hadi; Hasnan, Nazirah; Davis, Glen M; Husain, Ruby

    2017-08-01

    Current strategies for increased physical activity and exercise in individuals with spinal cord injury (SCI) face many challenges with regards to maintaining their continuity of participation. Barriers cited often include problems with accessing facilities, mundane, monotonous or boring exercises and expensive equipment that is often not adapted for wheelchair users. To compare the physiological responses and user preferences between conventional heavy-bag boxing against a novel form of video game boxing, known as exergaming boxing. Cross-sectional study. Exercise laboratory setting in a university medical center. Seventeen participants with SCI were recruited, of which sixteen were male and only one female. Their mean age was 35.6±10.2 years. All of them performed a 15-minute physical exercise session of exergaming and heavy-bag boxing in a sitting position. The study assessed physiological responses in terms of oxygen consumption, metabolic equivalent (MET) and energy expenditure between exergaming and heavy-bag boxing derived from open-circuit spirometry. Participants also rated their perceived exertion using Borg's category-ratio ratings of perceived exertion. Both exergaming (MET: 4.3±1.0) and heavy-bag boxing (MET: 4.4±1.0) achieved moderate exercise intensities in these participants with SCI. Paired t-test revealed no significant differences (P>0.05, Cohen's d: 0.02-0.49) in the physiological or perceived exertional responses between the two modalities of boxing. Post session user survey reported all the participants found exergaming boxing more enjoyable. Exergaming boxing, was able to produce equipotent physiological responses as conventional heavy-bag boxing. The intensity of both exercise modalities achieved recommended intensities for health and fitness benefits. Exergaming boxing have the potential to provide an enjoyable, self-competitive environment for moderate-vigorous exercise even at the comfort of their homes.

  10. Complementarity in the Einstein-Bohr photon box

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dieks, D.G.B.J.; Lam, S

    2008-01-01

    The Bohr-Einstein photon box thought experiment is a forerunner of the EPR experiment: a packet of radiation escapes from a box, and the box-plus-radiation state remains entangled. Hence, a measurement on the box makes a difference for the state of the far-away radiation long after its escape. This

  11. 49 CFR 230.101 - Steam locomotive driving journal boxes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Steam locomotive driving journal boxes. 230.101... Locomotives and Tenders Running Gear § 230.101 Steam locomotive driving journal boxes. (a) Driving journal boxes. Driving journal boxes shall be maintained in a safe and suitable condition for service. Not more...

  12. 49 CFR 178.517 - Standards for plastic boxes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 2 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Standards for plastic boxes. 178.517 Section 178... PACKAGINGS Non-bulk Performance-Oriented Packaging Standards § 178.517 Standards for plastic boxes. (a) The following are identification codes for plastic boxes: (1) 4H1 for an expanded plastic box; and (2) 4H2 for a...

  13. Plutonium glove boxes - metrology and operational states

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thyer, A.M.

    2001-01-01

    The main objective was to undertake a literature review in support of NII's ongoing work in improving safety in the nuclear industry to help define suitable standards of cleanliness for plutonium glove boxes. This is to cover the following areas: existing or proposed national/international standards relating to plutonium glove box cleanliness management; practicable metrology options for assessing the plutonium content of glove boxes; any available dose information relating to the operation of modern and 'old design'; current contamination levels of specific significance (i.e. any accepted level in decommissioning/waste terms, typical criticality limits (if available), any box plutonium loadings that are documented with corresponding operator doses etc.); and, techniques for the decontamination of plutonium glove boxes and their relative effectiveness. This should then form the basis of any further development work undertaken by the UK nuclear industry. Main recommendations are as follows: 1) No information could be found in open literature on acceptable levels of contamination in boxes and action levels for cleanup. If these are not available in closed publications the 2) Where possible, the decontamination methods identified should be tested and dose information recorded against each method to allow informed decisions on which is the optimum technique for a particular form of contamination. 3) Consideration should be given to utilisation of metrology options which have the lowest potential for exposure of operators. Preferred options, may be detection from the outside of boxes using hand-held or permanently located radiation detectors, or semi-intrusive methods such as air-ionisation readings which would require one-off installation of detectors in ductwork

  14. Performance Assessment of Black Box Capacity Forecasting for Multi-Market Trade Application

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    MacDougall, Pamela; Ran, Bob; Huitema, George B.; Deconinck, Geert

    2017-01-01

    With the growth of renewable generated electricity in the energy mix, large energy storage and flexible demand, particularly aggregated demand response is becoming a front runner as a new participant in the wholesale energy markets. One of the biggest barriers for the integration of aggregator

  15. Forecasting incidence of dengue in Rajasthan, using time series analyses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhatnagar, Sunil; Lal, Vivek; Gupta, Shiv D; Gupta, Om P

    2012-01-01

    To develop a prediction model for dengue fever/dengue haemorrhagic fever (DF/DHF) using time series data over the past decade in Rajasthan and to forecast monthly DF/DHF incidence for 2011. Seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model was used for statistical modeling. During January 2001 to December 2010, the reported DF/DHF cases showed a cyclical pattern with seasonal variation. SARIMA (0,0,1) (0,1,1) 12 model had the lowest normalized Bayesian information criteria (BIC) of 9.426 and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 263.361 and appeared to be the best model. The proportion of variance explained by the model was 54.3%. Adequacy of the model was established through Ljung-Box test (Q statistic 4.910 and P-value 0.996), which showed no significant correlation between residuals at different lag times. The forecast for the year 2011 showed a seasonal peak in the month of October with an estimated 546 cases. Application of SARIMA model may be useful for forecast of cases and impending outbreaks of DF/DHF and other infectious diseases, which exhibit seasonal pattern.

  16. Fuel assembly and fuel channel box

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sakuma, Toraki; Hirakawa, Hiromasa; Ishizaki, Hideaki; Nakajima, Junjiro; Aizawa, Yasuhiro.

    1992-01-01

    A fuel channel box has a square cylindrical shape and, in the transversal cross sectional shape, the wall thickness of a corner portion is greater than that of a central portion of the side wall except for an upper portion thereof. The upper portion of the channel box includes a region to be in contact with an upper lattice plate and a region to attach a channel spacer. Then, the wall thickness of these regions is uniform in the transversal cross section and they have the same wall thickness with that of the corner portion which has the increased wall thickness. With such a constitution, the upper portion of the channel box receives a counter force applied from the upper lattice plate upon occurrence of earthquakes and moderate it to reduce local stresses and deformation. Further, a similar region with increased wall thickness is disposed also to the lower portion of the channel box, thereby enabling to suppress the amount of coolants leaked from a portion between the lower portion and a lower tie plate, and improve the mechanical integrity of the channel box. (I.N.)

  17. Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2) Operational Forecasts

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2) produced by the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) is a fully coupled model representing the...

  18. Black Sea coastal forecasting system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. I. Kubryakov

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available The Black Sea coastal nowcasting and forecasting system was built within the framework of EU FP6 ECOOP (European COastalshelf sea OPerational observing and forecasting system project for five regions: the south-western basin along the coasts of Bulgaria and Turkey, the north-western shelf along the Romanian and Ukrainian coasts, coastal zone around of the Crimea peninsula, the north-eastern Russian coastal zone and the coastal zone of Georgia. The system operates in the real-time mode during the ECOOP project and afterwards. The forecasts include temperature, salinity and current velocity fields. Ecosystem model operates in the off-line mode near the Crimea coast.

  19. Magnetogram Forecast: An All-Clear Space Weather Forecasting System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barghouty, Nasser; Falconer, David

    2015-01-01

    Solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are the drivers of severe space weather. Forecasting the probability of their occurrence is critical in improving space weather forecasts. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) currently uses the McIntosh active region category system, in which each active region on the disk is assigned to one of 60 categories, and uses the historical flare rates of that category to make an initial forecast that can then be adjusted by the NOAA forecaster. Flares and CMEs are caused by the sudden release of energy from the coronal magnetic field by magnetic reconnection. It is believed that the rate of flare and CME occurrence in an active region is correlated with the free energy of an active region. While the free energy cannot be measured directly with present observations, proxies of the free energy can instead be used to characterize the relative free energy of an active region. The Magnetogram Forecast (MAG4) (output is available at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center) was conceived and designed to be a databased, all-clear forecasting system to support the operational goals of NASA's Space Radiation Analysis Group. The MAG4 system automatically downloads nearreal- time line-of-sight Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) magnetograms on the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) satellite, identifies active regions on the solar disk, measures a free-energy proxy, and then applies forecasting curves to convert the free-energy proxy into predicted event rates for X-class flares, M- and X-class flares, CMEs, fast CMEs, and solar energetic particle events (SPEs). The forecast curves themselves are derived from a sample of 40,000 magnetograms from 1,300 active region samples, observed by the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory Michelson Doppler Imager. Figure 1 is an example of MAG4 visual output

  20. Changes in position and quality of preferred nest box: effects on nest box use by laying hens

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Riber, Anja Brinch; Nielsen, Birte L.

    2013-01-01

    Using laying hens, we investigated whether position of a nest box, both within the pen and relative to other nest boxes, influenced the preference for a nest box, and how a sudden and marked change to the preferred box influenced the use of nest boxes by the hens. Groups (n=12) of 15 Isa Warren...... hens were housed in pens, each with five identical nest boxes in different positions: Two single (in a corner or not) and a triplet of nest boxes (one of which in a corner). The use of nest boxes was determined by the number of eggs laid daily in each box. Three experiments, each lasting 10 days, were...... carried out. First, the undisturbed use of each of the nest box types was investigated, and a strong preference (Peggs laid there. Second, each of the hen groups was moved to another pen allocated at random, and where...

  1. Earthquake number forecasts testing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kagan, Yan Y.

    2017-10-01

    We study the distributions of earthquake numbers in two global earthquake catalogues: Global Centroid-Moment Tensor and Preliminary Determinations of Epicenters. The properties of these distributions are especially required to develop the number test for our forecasts of future seismic activity rate, tested by the Collaboratory for Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP). A common assumption, as used in the CSEP tests, is that the numbers are described by the Poisson distribution. It is clear, however, that the Poisson assumption for the earthquake number distribution is incorrect, especially for the catalogues with a lower magnitude threshold. In contrast to the one-parameter Poisson distribution so widely used to describe earthquake occurrences, the negative-binomial distribution (NBD) has two parameters. The second parameter can be used to characterize the clustering or overdispersion of a process. We also introduce and study a more complex three-parameter beta negative-binomial distribution. We investigate the dependence of parameters for both Poisson and NBD distributions on the catalogue magnitude threshold and on temporal subdivision of catalogue duration. First, we study whether the Poisson law can be statistically rejected for various catalogue subdivisions. We find that for most cases of interest, the Poisson distribution can be shown to be rejected statistically at a high significance level in favour of the NBD. Thereafter, we investigate whether these distributions fit the observed distributions of seismicity. For this purpose, we study upper statistical moments of earthquake numbers (skewness and kurtosis) and compare them to the theoretical values for both distributions. Empirical values for the skewness and the kurtosis increase for the smaller magnitude threshold and increase with even greater intensity for small temporal subdivision of catalogues. The Poisson distribution for large rate values approaches the Gaussian law, therefore its skewness

  2. Reassessment of the nonlocality of correlation boxes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Costa, A.P.; Parisio, Fernando, E-mail: parisio@df.ufpe.br

    2017-01-15

    Correlation boxes are hypothetical systems usually designed to produce the maximal algebraic violation of a Bell inequality, beyond the quantum bound and without superluminal signalling. The fact that these systems show stronger correlations than those presented by maximally entangled quantum states, as the spin singlet, has been regarded as a demonstration that the former are more nonlocal than the latter. By applying an alternative, consistent measure of nonlocality to a family of correlation boxes, we show that this conclusion is not necessarily true. Complementarily, we define a class of systems displaying subquantum correlations which, nevertheless, are more nonlocal than the singlet state, showing that the extent of the numeric violation of an inequality may have little to do with the degree of nonlocality, especially in the case of correlation boxes.

  3. Lévy flights in a box

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Iomin, Alexander

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: •A quantum Lévy process in a box involves topological constraints in space. •The eigenvalue problem is formulated for the Lévy process in the box. •The path integral formalism with the Lévy measure is constructed. •The evolution operator is obtained in the path integral presentation. -- Abstract: It is shown that a quantum Lévy process in a box leads to a problem involving topological constraints in space, and its treatment in the framework of the path integral formalism with the Lévy measure is suggested. The eigenvalue problem for the infinite potential well is properly defined and solved. An analytical expression for the evolution operator is obtained in the path integral presentation, and the path integral takes the correct limit of the local quantum mechanics with topological constraints. An example of the Lévy process in oscillating walls is also considered in the adiabatic approximation

  4. Design and Development of Smart Medicine Box

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosli, Ekbal; Husaini, Yusnira

    2018-03-01

    The Smart Medicine Box is successfully designed in helping the introvert patients taking their medicine without help of others. This project is to develop a robotic device that can assist patient to take medicine alone by implementing an IOT apps system for controlling the Smart Medicine Box where it will overcome an emotional disturbance experience by the introvert patients. There are four sensors such as PIR, IR, temperature and ultrasonic sensors use for the project. The purpose of PIR sensor is to detect hand movement near the device, while IR sensor is to detect the line follower on the floor. The LM 35 acts as the detection of the temperature inside the box and the ultrasonic acts as the detection of the obstacle in front of the device. The MIT Apps Invention 2 is used to develop an apps and collect the data from sensors through Arduino microcontroller. A proof of concept design has implemented and demonstrated successfully.

  5. 25 years of time series forecasting

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Gooijer, J.G.; Hyndman, R.J.

    2006-01-01

    We review the past 25 years of research into time series forecasting. In this silver jubilee issue, we naturally highlight results published in journals managed by the International Institute of Forecasters (Journal of Forecasting 1982-1985 and International Journal of Forecasting 1985-2005). During

  6. Estimates of Uncertainty around the RBA's Forecasts

    OpenAIRE

    Peter Tulip; Stephanie Wallace

    2012-01-01

    We use past forecast errors to construct confidence intervals and other estimates of uncertainty around the Reserve Bank of Australia's forecasts of key macroeconomic variables. Our estimates suggest that uncertainty about forecasts is high. We find that the RBA's forecasts have substantial explanatory power for the inflation rate but not for GDP growth.

  7. Fire test of DOT 7A Boxes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jensen, J.D.

    1979-05-01

    The primary objective of conducting the full-scale fire tests of the DOT (Department of Transportation) 7A FRP Boxes was to provide information to assist in quantifying the fire hazard of the storage located at the Radioactive Waste Management Complex (RWMC), and to learn if changing the storage array will decrease the fire risk. Also, the level of fire fighting and fire protection required to maintain the risk at the RWMC within acceptable DOE guidelines was investigated. Two full-scale fire tests were conducted at Southwest Research Institute (SwRI) in June 1978, using the DOE 7A FRP Plywood Storage Containers. The fire tests showed that when subjected to a substantial ignition source, the boxes will propagate fire as long as no fire-suppression measures are taken. Fire will breach the boxes and spread the radioactive contaminated waste if it is not extinguished. As the fire progresses, additional boxes will become involved, and eventually the entire storage array will ignite. It is recommended that the use of DOT 7A Boxes be discontinued and replaced with noncombustible storage containers. In the event this is not practicable, guidance recommendations are presented to minimize the large fire loss potential. It is also recommended that an investigation be conducted into the number of boxes that can be destroyed and still maintain a safe environment for employees and the public. This investigation should include how far radioactive contamination will spread, what cleanup will be required, anticipated exposure of the people within the area, and the public impact of such a fire

  8. Recurrent networks for wave forecasting

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Mandal, S.; Prabaharan, N.

    , merchant vessel routing, nearshore construction, etc. more efficiently and safely. This paper presents an application of the Artificial Neural Network, namely Backpropagation Recurrent Neural Network (BRNN) with rprop update algorithm for wave forecasting...

  9. Forecasting and management of technology

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Roper, A. T

    2011-01-01

    .... The scope of this edition has broadened to include management of technology content that is relevant to now to executives in organizations while updating and strengthening the technology forecasting...

  10. CASAS: A Smart Home in a Box.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cook, Diane J; Crandall, Aaron S; Thomas, Brian L; Krishnan, Narayanan C

    2013-07-01

    While the potential benefits of smart home technology are widely recognized, a lightweight design is needed for the benefits to be realized at a large scale. We introduce the CASAS "smart home in a box", a lightweight smart home design that is easy to install and provides smart home capabilities out of the box with no customization or training. We discuss types of data analysis that have been performed by the CASAS group and can be pursued in the future by using this approach to designing and implementing smart home technologies.

  11. Experimental realization of the quantum box problem

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Resch, K.J.; Lundeen, J.S.; Steinberg, A.M.

    2004-01-01

    The three-box problem is a gedankenexperiment designed to elucidate some interesting features of quantum measurement and locality. A particle is prepared in a particular superposition of three boxes, and later found in a different (but nonorthogonal) superposition. It was predicted that appropriate 'weak' measurements of particle position in the interval between preparation and post-selection would find the particle in two different places, each with certainty. We verify these predictions in an optical experiment and address the issues of locality and of negative probability

  12. Forecasting Croatian inbound tourism demand

    OpenAIRE

    Tica, Josip; Kožić, Ivan

    2015-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to present a forecasting model for the overnight stays of foreign tourists in Croatia. Tourism is one of the most important parts of the Croatian economy. It is particularly important in the context of the services sector. Regular and significant surpluses and the consumption of foreign guests are an important element of budget revenues, especially VAT. The ability to forecast the development of inbound tourism demand in a timely manner is crucial for both business...

  13. Preparing for an Uncertain Forecast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karolak, Eric

    2011-01-01

    Navigating the world of government relations and public policy can be a little like predicting the weather. One can't always be sure what's in store or how it will affect him/her down the road. But there are common patterns and a few basic steps that can help one best prepare for a change in the forecast. Though the forecast is uncertain, early…

  14. Forecasting market developments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weller, T.

    1997-01-01

    Traditional planning in essence consists of linear extrapolation of established facts and experience. This approach was good enough until recently, when progress would be relatively foreseeable within a stable system. The situation has been changing with developments and modifications in the global economic sector proceeding at accelerated pace, so that conventional planning methods become hopelessly inadequate. The past is of low significance to emerging markets; planners today have to keep abreast with and take into account the possible and emerging influencing factors. Experience is a factor to be replaced by intelligent analysis and conclusion within the framework of system networks. Modern scenario modelling methods are based on this approach: They are able to simulate and forecast a whole range of ''possible futures'', derived from perceivable trends. The article illustrates the novel planning methodology by assessing the future of the renewable energy sources, applying a computerized planning method (vision design) which is based on intelligent comparative analysis of all relevant trends. (Orig./RHM) [de

  15. Quantile forecast discrimination ability and value

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ben Bouallègue, Zied; Pinson, Pierre; Friederichs, Petra

    2015-01-01

    While probabilistic forecast verification for categorical forecasts is well established, some of the existing concepts and methods have not found their equivalent for the case of continuous variables. New tools dedicated to the assessment of forecast discrimination ability and forecast value are ...... is illustrated based on synthetic datasets, as well as for the case of global radiation forecasts from the high resolution ensemble COSMO-DE-EPS of the German Weather Service....

  16. Piracy and Box Office Movie Revenues

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Peukert, Christian; Claussen, Jörg; Kretschmer, Tobias

    2017-01-01

    In this paper we evaluate the heterogeneous effects of online copyright enforcement. We ask whether the unexpected shutdown of the popular file hosting platform Megaupload had a differential effect on box office revenues of wide-release vs. niche movies. Identification comes from a comparison...

  17. Cereal Box Design: An Interdisciplinary Graphics Activity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fitzgerald, Mike; Tsosie, Teri

    2012-01-01

    The cereal box design activity is intriguing both for its simplicity and the resourcefulness that it can generate in young people. Also, it lends itself to a variety of curriculums. It covers both consumerism and Design for the Environment (DfE) concepts broadly and in depth. The activity introduces a wide range of topics. They include graphic…

  18. PVC posting bags for glove boxes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1976-12-01

    This specification covers the materials, measurements and manufacture of unpigmented PVC posting bags for use on glove boxes, together with methods of testing the materials. These bags are used in the handling of radioactive and toxic materials of a hazardous nature and therefore must be of the highest standard of mechanical strength, leak tightness and general finish. (author)

  19. Box and block test in Beninese adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Natta, Ditouah Didier Niama; Alagnidé, Etienne; Kpadonou, Toussaint Godonou; Detrembleur, Christine; Lejeune, Thierry M; Stoquart, Gaëtan G

    2015-11-01

    To determine the Box and Block Test norm in a sub-Saharan population and to compare these data with published norms for North American adults. A total of 692 healthy Beninese people, age range 20-85 years, were recruited. These subjects were asked to perform the Box and Block Test with both hands. Box and Block Test scores (mean and standard deviation (SD)) for women and men were, respectively, 81.3 (15.4) and 79 (16.6) for the dominant hand and 73.2 (13.7) and 72 (14.8) for the non-dominant hand. Mean Box and Block Test scores ranged from 89.1 (12.7) for people under the age of 25 years to 55.23 (10.5) for people over the age of 74 years. Manual dexterity was better for women than men, for dominant hand than non-dominant hand, and for younger subjects. In comparison with published results for US subjects, Beninese subjects had better dexterity below the age of 50 years in both sexes for the right hand and worse dexterity over 64 years of age in both sexes for the right hand. Developing and validating outcome scales in Africa will help to improve functional assessment of African populations in clinical practice and research.

  20. Hadron scattering in an asymmetric box

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li Xin; Chen Ying; Meng Guozhan; Feng Xu; Gong Ming; He Song; Li Gang; Liu Chuan; Liu Yubin; Ma Jianping; Meng Xiangfei; Shen Yan; Zhang Jianbo

    2007-01-01

    We propose to study hadron-hadron scattering using lattice QCD in an asymmetric box which allows one to access more non-degenerate low-momentum modes for a given volume. The conventional Luescher's formula applicable in a symmetric box is modified accordingly. To illustrate the feasibility of this approach, pion-pion elastic scattering phase shifts in the I = 2, J = 0 channel are calculated within quenched approximation using improved gauge and Wilson fermion actions on anisotropic lattices in an asymmetric box. After the chiral and continuum extrapolation, we find that our quenched results for the scattering phase shifts in this channel are consistent with the experimental data when the three-momentum of the pion is below 300MeV. Agreement is also found when compared with previous theoretical results from lattice and other means. Moreover, with the usage of asymmetric volume, we are able to compute the scattering phases in the low-momentum range (pion three momentum less than about 350MeV in the center of mass frame) for over a dozen values of the pion three-momenta, much more than using the conventional symmetric box with comparable volume