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Sample records for box jenkins forecasting

  1. BoxJenkins Models For Forecasting The Daily Degrees Of Temperature In Sulaimani City.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Samira Muhammad Salh

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available The Auto-regressive model in the time series is regarded one of the statistical articles which is more used because it gives us a simple method to limit the relation between variables time series. More over it is one of BoxJenkins models to limit the time series in the forecasting the value of phenomenon in the future so that study aims for the practical analysis studying for the auto-regressive models in the time series, through one of BoxJenkins models for forecasting the daily degrees of temperature in Sulaimani city for the year (2012- Sept.2013 and then for building a sample in the way of special data in the degrees of temperature and its using in the calculating the future forecasting . the style which is used is the descriptive and analyzing by the help of data that is dealt with statistically and which is collected from the official resources To reach his mentioned aim , the discussion of the following items has been done by the theoretical part which includes the idea of time series and its quality and the autocorrelation and BoxJenkins and then the practical part which includes the statistical analysis for the data and the discussion of the theoretical part, so they reached to a lot of conclusions as it had come in the practical study for building autoregressive models of time series as the mode was very suitable is the auto-regressive model and model moving average by the degree (1,1,1.

  2. A comparative Study of Forecasting the Electrical Demand in Basra city using Box-Jenkins and Modern Intelligent Techniques

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Khadeega Abd Al-zahra

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The electrical consumption in Basra is extremely nonlinear; so forecasting the monthly required of electrical consumption in this city is very useful and critical issue. In this Article an intelligent techniques have been proposed to predict the demand of electrical consumption of Basra city. Intelligent techniques including ANN and Neuro-fuzzy structured trained. The result obtained had been compared with conventional Box-Jenkins models (ARIMA models as a statistical method used in time series analysis. ARIMA (Autoregressive integrated moving average is one of the statistical models that utilized in time series prediction during the last several decades. Neuro- Fuzzy Modeling was used to build the prediction system, which give effective in improving the predict operation efficiency. To train the prediction system, a historical data were used. The data representing the monthly electric consumption in Basra city during the period from (Jan 2005 to Dec 2011. The data utilized to compare the proposed model and the forecasting of demand for the subsequent two years (Jan 2012-Dec 2013. The results give the efficiency of proposed methodology and show the good performance of the proposed Neuro-fuzzy method compared with the traditional ARIMA method.

  3. Aplicación de la metodología Box-Jenkins para pronóstico de precios en jitomate Application of Box-Jenkins methodology for forecasting prices in tomatoes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gaspar Marroquín Martínez

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available Los productos del sector agroalimentario tienen como características económicas distintivas, la alta variabilidad en sus precios. Teniendo en cuenta la incertidumbre de los precios, una posible forma de planificar racionalmente la toma de decisiones, que consiste en elaborar pronósticos confiables del comportamiento futuro de esa variable. En este trabajo se usó la metodología Box-Jenkins, para identificar un modelo econométrico autoregresivo integrado de media móvil (ARIMA, que se ajusta al comportamiento de la serie de tiempo de precios nominales en venta al mayoreo de jitomate bola en México. Se concluye de acuerdo a los resultados, que la serie de tiempo objeto de estudio, se ajusta a un modelo ARIMA (23, 0, 1, dicho modelo posee dos factores autoregresivos y uno de media móvil. Con el modelo se hicieron pronósticos para 12 meses, los cuales comprenden de diciembre de 2008 a noviembre de 2009.Agri-food products have as a distinctive economic characteristic, its high variability in prices. Given the uncertainty of prices, a possible way of rational planning decisions, is to develop reliable forecasts of that variable's future behavior. In this paper we used the Box-Jenkins methodology to identify an econometric autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA, which fits the behavior of time series of nominal prices for beef tomato wholesaling in Mexico. According to the results we concluded that the time series under consideration, fits to an ARIMA model (23, 0, 1, this model has two autoregressive factors and a moving average. With this model there were made forecasts for 12 months, which are from December 2008 to November 2009.

  4. Prévision de ventes mensuelles de produits pétroliers : une application de la méthodologie Box-Jenkins Forecasting Monthly Sales of Petroleum Products: an Application of the Box-Jenkins Methodology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gasnier Y.

    2006-11-01

    Full Text Available Après avoir exposé le problème de prévision qui se posait à la société Elf France, et présenté sa généralisation à la plupart des entreprises, nous définirons la place que tient cette étude dans le vaste débat sur la prévision à court terme actuelle. La recherche d'une méthode appropriée pour la résolution du problème posé passe d'abord par une synthèse de la littérature : après un classement méthodologique des techniques, une analyse critique permet d'effectuer le choix de la méthode Box-Jenkins dont nous proposons une présentation sommaire. La seconde grande partie concerne l'application pratique relative à la prévision et au suivi de nos six séries pétrolières : après avoir résolu le problème par une démarche séquentielle, intégrant progressivement les développements de complexité croissante, une analyse critique évalue les résultats obtenus et propose une extension prometteuse des travaux ainsi que les grands axes de développement pour l'avenir. En dernier lieu, la conclusion apporte sa contribution au débat sur la modélisation à court terme actuelle et définit le rôle pivot que devrait jouer la méthodologie de Box et Jenkins. This article contains two main parts. The first one is theoretical, and the second one is practical. After describing the forecasting problems faced by Elf France and its generalization to most companies, the position this study occupies in the vast debate on current short-term forecasting is defined. The search for a suitable method for solving the problem raised first goes via a synthesis of the literature. After making a methodological classification of techniques, a critical analysis can be used to choose the Box-Jenkins methods which is outlined. The second main part is relative to the practical application concerning forecasting and the following of our six petroleum series. After the problem has been solved by a sequential procedure, progressively integrating

  5. From the ideas of «Caterpillar»-SSA and Box-Jenkins methods to decomposition method of forecasting and decomposition ANN

    OpenAIRE

    Щелкалин, Виталий Николаевич

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents an overview of the rapidly developing in recent years by the author in various fields of science and technology of modern mathematical models and methods based on joint usage of ideas of the “Caterpillar”-SSA and Box-Jenkins methods. The proposed by author models are a priority at present probabilistic and deterministic nonlinear decomposition models

  6. Prévision de ventes mensuelles de produits pétroliers : une application de la méthodologie Box-Jenkins Forecasting Monthly Sales of Petroleum Products: an Application of the Box-Jenkins Methodology

    OpenAIRE

    Gasnier Y.

    2006-01-01

    Après avoir exposé le problème de prévision qui se posait à la société Elf France, et présenté sa généralisation à la plupart des entreprises, nous définirons la place que tient cette étude dans le vaste débat sur la prévision à court terme actuelle. La recherche d'une méthode appropriée pour la résolution du problème posé passe d'abord par une synthèse de la littérature : après un classement méthodologique des techniques, une analyse critique permet d'effectuer le choix de la méthode Box-Jen...

  7. 太阳日总辐射量的Box-Jenkins模型%BOX-JENKINS MODEL FOR DAILY SOLAR RADIATION

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王敏; 丁明

    2012-01-01

    基于天文辐射和日照率数据,采用系统辨识的方法建立了模拟太阳日总辐射量的BJ( Box-Jenkins)模型.该模型与传统的(A)ngstr(m)的日总辐射量的计算公式相比,模拟和预测效果更好.%Based on astronomical radiation and percentage of possible sunshine data, the BJ (Box-Jenkins) model for daily solar irradiation is established using system identification method. The simulation and the one-step forecast results of the BJ model are better than Angstrm formula of the calculation.

  8. Time-series analysis with a hybrid Box-Jenkins ARIMA and neural network model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Dilli R Aryal; WANG Yao-wu(王要武)

    2004-01-01

    Time-series analysis is important to a wide range of disciplines transcending both the physical and social sciences for proactive policy decisions. Statistical models have sound theoretical basis and have been successfully used in a number of problem domains in time series forecasting. Due to power and flexibility, Box-Jenkins ARIMA model has gained enormous popularity in many areas and research practice for the last three decades.More recently, the neural networks have been shown to be a promising alternative tool for modeling and forecasting owing to their ability to capture the nonlinearity in the data. However, despite the popularity and the superiority of ARIMA and ANN models, the empirical forecasting performance has been rather mixed so that no single method is best in every situation. In this study, a hybrid ARIMA and neural networks model to time series forecasting is proposed. The basic idea behind the model combination is to use each model's unique features to capture different patterns in the data. With three real data sets, empirical results evidently show that the hybrid model outperforms ARIMA and ANN model noticeably in terms of forecasting accuracy used in isolation.

  9. Stochastic gradient algorithm for a dual-rate Box-Jenkins model based on auxiliary model and FIR model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Jing CHEN; Rui-feng DING

    2014-01-01

    Based on the work in Ding and Ding (2008), we develop a modifi ed stochastic gradient (SG) parameter estimation algorithm for a dual-rate Box-Jenkins model by using an auxiliary model. We simplify the complex dual-rate Box-Jenkins model to two fi nite impulse response (FIR) models, present an auxiliary model to estimate the missing outputs and the unknown noise variables, and compute all the unknown parameters of the system with colored noises. Simulation results indicate that the proposed method is effective.

  10. 基于系统辨识的地表太阳辐射Box-Jenkins模型的建立%ESTABLISHMENT OF BOX-JENKINS MODEL FOR SURFACE SOLAR RADIATION BASED ON SYSTEM IDENTIFICATION METHOD

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王敏; 丁明

    2012-01-01

    Astronomical radiation as the input data, the BJ (Box-Jenkins) model for surface solar radiation was established using system identification method. The model was affirmed to be workable by residual analysis and zero-pole test. This method can be used to predict the surface solar radiation of 5 -15 minutes time interval, the prediction results can provide solar radiation data for power output forecast of solar PV power plants.%利用天文辐射作为输入数据,采用系统辨识的方法得到地表太阳辐射的BJ(Box-Jenkins)模型,并通过残 差分析和零极点检验.该方法可用于预测5~ 15min时间间隔的地表太阳辐射,为太阳能电站的功率输出预测提供太阳能辐射数据.

  11. Jenkins essentials

    CERN Document Server

    Soni, Mitesh

    2015-01-01

    If you are a Jenkins novice or beginner with a basic understanding of continuous integration, then this is the book for you. Beginners in Jenkins will get quick hands-on experience and gain the confidence to go ahead and explore the use of Jenkins further.

  12. Jenkins The Definitive Guide

    CERN Document Server

    Smart, John

    2011-01-01

    Streamline software development with Jenkins, the popular Java-based open source tool that has revolutionized the way teams think about Continuous Integration (CI). This complete guide shows you how to automate your build, integration, release, and deployment processes with Jenkins-and demonstrates how CI can save you time, money, and many headaches. Ideal for developers, software architects, and project managers, Jenkins: The Definitive Guide is both a CI tutorial and a comprehensive Jenkins reference. Through its wealth of best practices and real-world tips, you'll discover how easy it is

  13. Jenkins continuous integration cookbook

    CERN Document Server

    Berg, Alan Mark

    2015-01-01

    If you are a Java developer, a software architect, a technical project manager, a build manager, or a development or QA engineer, then this book is ideal for you. A basic understanding of the software development life cycle and Java development is needed, as well as a rudimentary understanding of Jenkins.

  14. Multi-output Model with Box-Jenkins Operators of Quadratic Indices for Prediction of Malaria and Cancer Inhibitors Targeting Ubiquitin- Proteasome Pathway (UPP) Proteins.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Casañola-Martin, Gerardo M; Le-Thi-Thu, Huong; Pérez-Giménez, Facundo; Marrero-Ponce, Yovani; Merino-Sanjuán, Matilde; Abad, Concepción; González-Díaz, Humberto

    2016-01-01

    The ubiquitin-proteasome pathway (UPP) is the primary degradation system of short-lived regulatory proteins. Cellular processes such as the cell cycle, signal transduction, gene expression, DNA repair and apoptosis are regulated by this UPP and dysfunctions in this system have important implications in the development of cancer, neurodegenerative, cardiac and other human pathologies. UPP seems also to be very important in the function of eukaryote cells of the human parasites like Plasmodium falciparum, the causal agent of the neglected disease Malaria. Hence, the UPP could be considered as an attractive target for the development of compounds with Anti-Malarial or Anti-cancer properties. Recent online databases like ChEMBL contains a larger quantity of information in terms of pharmacological assay protocols and compounds tested as UPP inhibitors under many different conditions. This large amount of data give new openings for the computer-aided identification of UPP inhibitors, but the intrinsic data diversity is an obstacle for the development of successful classifiers. To solve this problem here we used the Bob-Jenkins moving average operators and the atom-based quadratic molecular indices calculated with the software TOMOCOMD-CARDD (TC) to develop a quantitative model for the prediction of the multiple outputs in this complex dataset. Our multi-target model can predict results for drugs against 22 molecular or cellular targets of different organisms with accuracies above 70% in both training and validation sets.

  15. Multi-output Model with Box-Jenkins Operators of Quadratic Indices for Prediction of Malaria and Cancer Inhibitors Targeting Ubiquitin- Proteasome Pathway (UPP) Proteins.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Casañola-Martin, Gerardo M; Le-Thi-Thu, Huong; Pérez-Giménez, Facundo; Marrero-Ponce, Yovani; Merino-Sanjuán, Matilde; Abad, Concepción; González-Díaz, Humberto

    2016-01-01

    The ubiquitin-proteasome pathway (UPP) is the primary degradation system of short-lived regulatory proteins. Cellular processes such as the cell cycle, signal transduction, gene expression, DNA repair and apoptosis are regulated by this UPP and dysfunctions in this system have important implications in the development of cancer, neurodegenerative, cardiac and other human pathologies. UPP seems also to be very important in the function of eukaryote cells of the human parasites like Plasmodium falciparum, the causal agent of the neglected disease Malaria. Hence, the UPP could be considered as an attractive target for the development of compounds with Anti-Malarial or Anti-cancer properties. Recent online databases like ChEMBL contains a larger quantity of information in terms of pharmacological assay protocols and compounds tested as UPP inhibitors under many different conditions. This large amount of data give new openings for the computer-aided identification of UPP inhibitors, but the intrinsic data diversity is an obstacle for the development of successful classifiers. To solve this problem here we used the Bob-Jenkins moving average operators and the atom-based quadratic molecular indices calculated with the software TOMOCOMD-CARDD (TC) to develop a quantitative model for the prediction of the multiple outputs in this complex dataset. Our multi-target model can predict results for drugs against 22 molecular or cellular targets of different organisms with accuracies above 70% in both training and validation sets. PMID:26427384

  16. Forecasting with Dynamic Regression Models

    CERN Document Server

    Pankratz, Alan

    2012-01-01

    One of the most widely used tools in statistical forecasting, single equation regression models is examined here. A companion to the author's earlier work, Forecasting with Univariate Box-Jenkins Models: Concepts and Cases, the present text pulls together recent time series ideas and gives special attention to possible intertemporal patterns, distributed lag responses of output to input series and the auto correlation patterns of regression disturbance. It also includes six case studies.

  17. Integrating PHP Projects with Jenkins

    CERN Document Server

    Bergmann, Sebastian

    2011-01-01

    Today's web applications require frequent updates, not just by adding or upgrading features, but by maintaining and improving the software's existing code base as well. This concise book shows PHP developers how to use Jenkins, the popular continuous integration server, to monitor various aspects of software quality throughout a project's lifecycle. You'll learn how to implement continuous integration to automate processes for building and deploying regular software releases. The book also shows you how to use Jenkins to monitor and improve your application through continuous inspection. You

  18. Stock price forecasting: autoregressive modelling and fuzzy neural network

    OpenAIRE

    Marcek, Dusan

    2000-01-01

    Most models for the time series of stock prices have centered on autoregressive (AR) processes. Traditionaly, fundamantal Box-Jenkins analysis [3] have been the mainstream methodology used to develop time series models. Next, we briefly describe the develop a classical AR model for stock price forecasting. Then a fuzzy regression model is then introduced Following this description, an artificial fuzzy neural network based on B-spline member ship function is presented as an alternative to ...

  19. FORECASTING OF PULSES AREA AND PRODUCTION IN INDIA -AN ARIMA APPROACH

    OpenAIRE

    K. Prabakaran; P.Nadhiya; S.Bharathi; M.Isaivani

    2014-01-01

    Pulses area and production in India data for the period of 1950-51 to 2011-12 were analyzed by time series methods. Auto Correlation Function (ACF) and Partial Auto Correlation Function (PACF) were calculated for the data. Appropriate Box-Jenkins Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model was fitted. Validity of the model was tested using standard statistical techniques.ARIMA (1, 1, 0) and ARIMA (2, 1, 1) model were used to forecast area and production in India fo...

  20. James J. Jenkins (1923-2012).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foss, Donald J; Overmier, J Bruce

    2013-01-01

    Presents an obituary for James J. Jenkins. Jim Jenkins, fondly known as "J-cubed," was born on July 29, 1923, in St. Louis, Missouri. He attended William Jewell College but enlisted in the Army in 1942. He received a bachelor's degree in physics from the University of Chicago in 1944 as part of his training as a meteorologist. After serving in the South Pacific, he returned to William Jewell College, obtaining a bachelor's degree in psychology in 1947. Jenkins received a master's degree (1948) and a doctorate (1950) from the University of Minnesota under a giant in industrial psychology, Donald G. Paterson. He joined the Minnesota Psychology Department faculty upon graduation (turning down an offer from General Motors at triple the salary). Jenkins helped lead psychology's "cognitive revolution" from the second half of the 20th century into the present one. His work advanced multiple research areas: learning and memory, sentence processing, aphasia, speech perception, and perceptual organization. His remarkable combination of abilities led to nearly 200 scholarly publications and 500 conference and meeting presentations; multiple leadership positions, teaching awards, and professional accolades; and intense devotion from generations of students. PMID:23895612

  1. Forecasting coconut production in the Philippines with ARIMA model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lim, Cristina Teresa

    2015-02-01

    The study aimed to depict the situation of the coconut industry in the Philippines for the future years applying Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) method. Data on coconut production, one of the major industrial crops of the country, for the period of 1990 to 2012 were analyzed using time-series methods. Autocorrelation (ACF) and partial autocorrelation functions (PACF) were calculated for the data. Appropriate Box-Jenkins autoregressive moving average model was fitted. Validity of the model was tested using standard statistical techniques. The forecasting power of autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model was used to forecast coconut production for the eight leading years.

  2. APPLICATION OF ARIMA MODEL FOR FORECASTING OF ROOM RESERVATION IN HOTELS

    OpenAIRE

    Kagnicioglu, Celal Hakan; Mogol, Mune

    2015-01-01

    Accomodation is the main area of tourism industry. In order to determine man, machine and material reguirement, right material must be on the right place on the right time. Man and material requirements are depend on room demand. Main aim of this study is to forecast hotel room demand for a five stars and international chain hotel that has been established in Ankara. In order to forecast the room demand, ARIMA, one of the most popular advanced Box-Jenkins Model, has been used. The reason of s...

  3. Network Bandwidth Utilization Forecast Model on High Bandwidth Network

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yoo, Wucherl; Sim, Alex

    2014-07-07

    With the increasing number of geographically distributed scientific collaborations and the scale of the data size growth, it has become more challenging for users to achieve the best possible network performance on a shared network. We have developed a forecast model to predict expected bandwidth utilization for high-bandwidth wide area network. The forecast model can improve the efficiency of resource utilization and scheduling data movements on high-bandwidth network to accommodate ever increasing data volume for large-scale scientific data applications. Univariate model is developed with STL and ARIMA on SNMP path utilization data. Compared with traditional approach such as Box-Jenkins methodology, our forecast model reduces computation time by 83.2percent. It also shows resilience against abrupt network usage change. The accuracy of the forecast model is within the standard deviation of the monitored measurements.

  4. Client-Friendly Forecasting: Seasonal Runoff Predictions Using Out-of-the-Box Indices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weil, P.

    2013-12-01

    For more than a century, statistical relationships have been recognized between atmospheric conditions at locations separated by thousands of miles, referred to as teleconnections. Some of the recognized teleconnections provide useful information about expected hydrologic conditions, so certain records of atmospheric conditions are quantified and published as hydroclimate indices. Certain hydroclimate indices can serve as strong leading indicators of climate patterns over North America and can be used to make skillful forecasts of seasonal runoff. The methodology described here creates a simple-to-use model that utilizes easily accessed data to make forecasts of April through September runoff months before the runoff season begins. For this project, forecasting models were developed for two snowmelt-driven river systems in Colorado and Wyoming. In addition to the global hydroclimate indices, the methodology uses several local hydrologic variables including the previous year's drought severity, headwater snow water equivalent and the reservoir contents for the major reservoirs in each basin. To improve the skill of the forecasts, logistic regression is used to develop a model that provides the likelihood that a year will fall into the upper, middle or lower tercile of historical flows. Categorical forecasting has two major advantages over modeling of specific flow amounts: (1) with less prediction outcomes models tend to have better predictive skill and (2) categorical models are very useful to clients and agencies with specific flow thresholds that dictate major changes in water resources management. The resulting methodology and functional forecasting model product is highly portable, applicable to many major river systems and easily explained to a non-technical audience.

  5. Forecast Master Program case studies: Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Engle, R.; Granger, C.; Ramanathan, R. (ed.)

    1987-04-01

    This report presents a number of case studies using the computer software package FORECAST MASTER (FM). The series studied and forecast are, aggregate monthly California Electricity Sales, system energy demand data from Ontario Hydro, peak demand data for the residential and commercial customers of Georgia Power Company, Massachusetts Electric commercial sales, Narragansett Electric commercial sales, average and peak demand using Georgia Power Company data. A variety of methods have been studied by each of the contributing authors; trend line fitting, exponential smoothing, Box-Jenkins univariate forecasting, vector autoregression, state space modeling, dynamic econometric models including time-varying parameters and general order serial correlation corrections. Thus both the data sets and the modeling/forecasting methodologies are varied. A number of conclusions emerge from these case studies: FM provides a powerful set of tools to aid a utility forecaster, a great deal of caution should be exercised in pre-processing the data; it can have unintended side effects, diagnostic tests are very useful in econometric models, the Akaike Information Criterion is a useful measure for selecting the best state space model, and state space and econometric approaches both need equal amounts of care in model analysis and presentation.

  6. TIME SERIES FORECASTING USING NEURAL NETWORKS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    BOGDAN OANCEA

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Recent studies have shown the classification and prediction power of the Neural Networks. It has been demonstrated that a NN can approximate any continuous function. Neural networks have been successfully used for forecasting of financial data series. The classical methods used for time series prediction like Box-Jenkins or ARIMA assumes that there is a linear relationship between inputs and outputs. Neural Networks have the advantage that can approximate nonlinear functions. In this paper we compared the performances of different feed forward and recurrent neural networks and training algorithms for predicting the exchange rate EUR/RON and USD/RON. We used data series with daily exchange rates starting from 2005 until 2013.

  7. Koht, kust tagasi ei tulda / Mark Jenkins ; fotod Cory Richards

    Index Scriptorium Estoniae

    Jenkins, Mark

    2015-01-01

    National Geographicu ekspeditsiooni, mille koosseisu kuulusid Renan Ozturk, Mark Jenkins, Cory Richards, Emily Harrington ja Kilaree O'Neill, püüdlustest tõusta Kagu-Aasia kõrgeima mäe Hkakabo Razi tippu ning mõõta selle täpset kõrgust GPS-i abil

  8. Influenza forecasting with Google Flu Trends.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrea Freyer Dugas

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: We developed a practical influenza forecast model based on real-time, geographically focused, and easy to access data, designed to provide individual medical centers with advanced warning of the expected number of influenza cases, thus allowing for sufficient time to implement interventions. Secondly, we evaluated the effects of incorporating a real-time influenza surveillance system, Google Flu Trends, and meteorological and temporal information on forecast accuracy. METHODS: Forecast models designed to predict one week in advance were developed from weekly counts of confirmed influenza cases over seven seasons (2004-2011 divided into seven training and out-of-sample verification sets. Forecasting procedures using classical Box-Jenkins, generalized linear models (GLM, and generalized linear autoregressive moving average (GARMA methods were employed to develop the final model and assess the relative contribution of external variables such as, Google Flu Trends, meteorological data, and temporal information. RESULTS: A GARMA(3,0 forecast model with Negative Binomial distribution integrating Google Flu Trends information provided the most accurate influenza case predictions. The model, on the average, predicts weekly influenza cases during 7 out-of-sample outbreaks within 7 cases for 83% of estimates. Google Flu Trend data was the only source of external information to provide statistically significant forecast improvements over the base model in four of the seven out-of-sample verification sets. Overall, the p-value of adding this external information to the model is 0.0005. The other exogenous variables did not yield a statistically significant improvement in any of the verification sets. CONCLUSIONS: Integer-valued autoregression of influenza cases provides a strong base forecast model, which is enhanced by the addition of Google Flu Trends confirming the predictive capabilities of search query based syndromic surveillance. This

  9. Fuzzy Time Series: An Application to Tourism Demand Forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhammad H. Lee

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Problem statement: Forecasting is very important in many types of organizations since predictions of future events must be incorporated into the decision-making process. In the case of tourism demand, better forecast would help directors and investors make operational, tactical and strategic decisions. Besides that, government bodies need accurate tourism demand forecasts to plan required tourism infrastructures, such as accommodation site planning and transportation development, among other needs. There are many types of forecasting methods. Generally, time series forecasting can be divided into classical method and modern methods. Recent studies show that the newer and more advanced forecasting techniques tend to result in improved forecast accuracy, but no clear evidence shows that any one model can consistently outperform other models in the forecasting competition. Approach: In this study, the performance of forecasting between classical methods (Box-Jenkins methods Seasonal Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA, Holt Winters and time series regression and modern methods (fuzzy time series has been compared by using data of tourist arrivals to Bali and Soekarno-Hatta gate in Indonesia as case study. Results: The empirical results show that modern methods give more accurate forecasts compare to classical methods. Chens fuzzy time series method outperforms all the classical methods and others more advance fuzzy time series methods. We also found that the performance of fuzzy time series methods can be improve by using transformed data. Conclusion: It is found that the best method to forecast the tourist arrivals to Bali and Soekarno-Hatta was to be the FTS i.e., method after using data transformation. Although this method known to be the simplest or conventional methods of FTS, yet this result should not be odd since several previous studies also have shown that simple method could outperform more advance or complicated methods.

  10. Modeling for Growth and Forecasting of Pulse Production in Bangladesh

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Niaz Md. FarhatRahman

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available The present study was carried out to estimate growth pattern and examine the best ARIMA model to efficiently forecasting pigeon pea, chickpea and field pea pulse production in Bangladesh. It appeared that the time series data for pigeon pea, chickpea and field pea were 1st order homogenous stationary. Two types of models namely Box-Jenkins type Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA and deterministic type growth models, are examined to identify the best forecasting models for pigeon pea, chickpea and field pea pulse production in Bangladesh. The study revealed that the best models were ARIMA (1, 1 and 1, ARIMA (0, 1 and 0 and ARIMA (1, 1 and 3 for pigeon pea, chickpea and field pea pulse production, respectively. Among the deterministic type growth models, the cubic model is best for pigeon pea, chickpea and field pea pulse production. The analysis indicated that short-term forecasts were more efficient for ARIMA models compared to the deterministic models. The production uncertainty of pulse could be minimized if production were forecasted well and necessary steps were taken against losses. The findings of this study would be more useful for policy makers, researchers as well as producers in order to forecast future national pulse production more accurately in the short run.

  11. Influenza Forecasting with Google Flu Trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dugas, Andrea F.; Jalalpour, Mehdi; Gel, Yulia; Levin, Scott; Torcaso, Fred; Igusa, Takeru; Rothman, Richard

    2013-01-01

    Objective We sought to develop a practical influenza forecast model, based on real-time, geographically focused, and easy to access data, to provide individual medical centers with advanced warning of the number of influenza cases, thus allowing sufficient time to implement an intervention. Secondly, we evaluated how the addition of a real-time influenza surveillance system, Google Flu Trends, would impact the forecasting capabilities of this model. Introduction Each year, influenza results in increased Emergency Department crowding which can be mitigated through early detection linked to an appropriate response. Although current surveillance systems, such as Google Flu Trends, yield near real-time influenza surveillance, few demonstrate ability to forecast impending influenza cases. Methods Forecasting models designed to predict one week in advance were developed from weekly counts of confirmed influenza cases over seven seasons (2004 – 2011) divided into training and out-of-sample verification sets. Forecasting procedures using classical Box-Jenkins, generalized linear, and autoregressive methods were employed to develop the final model and assess the relative contribution of external variables such as, Google Flu Trends, meteorological data, and temporal information. Models were developed and evaluated through statistical measures of global deviance and log-likelihood ratio tests. An additional measure of forecast confidence, defined as the percentage of forecast values, during an influenza peak, that are within 7 influenza cases of the actual data, was examined to demonstrate practical utility of the model. Results A generalized autoregressive Poisson (GARMA) forecast model integrating previous influenza cases with Google Flu Trends information provided the most accurate influenza case predictions. Google Flu Trend data was the only source of external information providing significant forecast improvements (p = 0.00002). The final model, a GARMA intercept

  12. Jennifer Jenkins, English as a Lingua Franca: Attitude and Identity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marie-Françoise Narcy-Combes

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available En s’appuyant sur des recherches menées auprès d’enseignants d’anglais en Europe, en Asie et en Amérique Latine, Jennifer Jenkins étudie le lien entre les représentations des individus sur les langues et leur apprentissage et leur attitude face à l’enseignement de l’anglais comme langue véhiculaire internationale. C’est l’objet des trois premiers chapitres de l’ouvrage, qui explorent le décalage, d’une part, entre les représentations des individus sur la L2 et la réalité de celle-ci du point ...

  13. Jennifer Jenkins, English as a Lingua Franca: Attitude and Identity

    OpenAIRE

    Marie-Françoise Narcy-Combes

    2013-01-01

    En s’appuyant sur des recherches menées auprès d’enseignants d’anglais en Europe, en Asie et en Amérique Latine, Jennifer Jenkins étudie le lien entre les représentations des individus sur les langues et leur apprentissage et leur attitude face à l’enseignement de l’anglais comme langue véhiculaire internationale. C’est l’objet des trois premiers chapitres de l’ouvrage, qui explorent le décalage, d’une part, entre les représentations des individus sur la L2 et la réalité de celle-ci du point ...

  14. Short term forecasting of petroleum product demand in France

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The analysis of petroleum product demand became a privileged thrust of research following the modifications in terms of structure and level of the petroleum markets since eighties. The greatest importance to econometrics models of Energy demand, joint works about nonstationary data, explained the development of error-correction models and the co-integration. In this context, the short term econometrics modelling of petroleum product demand does not only focus on forecasts but also on the measure of the gain acquired from using error-correction techniques and co-integration. It's filling to take the influence of technical improvement and environment pressures into account in econometrics modelling of petroleum products demand. The first part presents the evolution of Energy Demand in France and more particularly the petroleum product demand since 1986. The objective is to determine the main characteristics of each product, which will help us to analyse and validate the econometrics models. The second part focus on the recent developments in times series modelling. We study the problem of nonstationary data and expose different unit root tests. We examine the main approaches to univariate and multivariate modelling with nonstationary data and distinguish the forecasts of the latter's. The third part is intended to applications; its objective is to illustrate the theoretic developments of the second part with a comparison between the performances of different approaches (approach Box and Jenkins, Johansen approach's and structural approach). The models will be applied to the main French petroleum market. The observed asymmetrical demand behaviour is also considered. (author)

  15. Forecasting Peak Load Electricity Demand Using Statistics and Rule Based Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Z. Ismail

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Problem statement: Forecasting of electricity load demand is an essential activity and an important function in power system planning and development. It is a prerequisite to power system expansion planning as the world of electricity is dominated by substantial lead times between decision making and its implementation. The importance of demand forecasting needs to be emphasized at all level as the consequences of under or over forecasting the demand are serious and will affect all stakeholders in the electricity supply industry. Approach: If under estimated, the result is serious since plant installation cannot easily be advanced, this will affect the economy, business, loss of time and image. If over estimated, the financial penalty for excess capacity (i.e., over-estimated and wasting of resources. Therefore this study aimed to develop new forecasting model for forecasting electricity load demand which will minimize the error of forecasting. In this study, we explored the development of rule-based method for forecasting electricity peak load demand. The rule-based system synergized human reasoning style of fuzzy systems through the use of set of rules consisting of IF-THEN approximators with the learning and connectionist structure. Prior to the implementation of rule-based models, SARIMAT model and Regression time series were used. Results: Modification of the basic regression model and modeled it using Box-Jenkins auto regressive error had produced a satisfactory and adequate model with 2.41% forecasting error. With rule-based based forecasting, one can apply forecaster expertise and domain knowledge that is appropriate to the conditions of time series. Conclusion: This study showed a significant improvement in forecast accuracy when compared with the traditional time series model. Good domain knowledge of the experts had contributed to the increase in forecast accuracy. In general, the improvement will depend on the conditions of the data

  16. ARIMA MODEL BUILDING AND FORECASTING ON IMPORTS AND EXPORTS OF PAKISTAN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmad Farooqi

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available From the day one, mankind has always been interested in to the future. As the civilization advanced with growing sophistication in all phases of life, the need to look in to the future also grew with it. Today every government, public private organizations, as well as an individual would like to predict and plan for the future. In order to attain a better growth in the economy of a country, modeling and forecasting is the most important tool now a day, this can be done by one of the statistical technique called a Time series analysis. In this paper we tried to build a time series model called ARIMA (Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average model with particular reference of Box and Jenkins approach on annually total Imports and Exports of Pakistan from the year 1947 to the year 2013 with useful statistical software R. Validity of the fitted model is tested using standard statistical techniques. The fitted model is then use to forecast some future values of Imports and export of Pakistan. It is found that an ARIMA (2, 2, 2 and ARIMA (1, 2, 2 model looks suitable to forecast the annual Imports and Exports of Pakistan respectively. We also found an increasing trend both in case of Imports and Exports during this study.

  17. Forecasting international tourism demand from the US, Japan and South Korea to Malaysia: A SARIMA approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borhan, Nurbaizura; Arsad, Zainudin

    2014-07-01

    One of the major contributing sectors for Malaysia's economic growth is tourism. The number of international tourist arrivals to Malaysia has been showing an upward trend as a result of several programs and promotion introduced by the Malaysian government to attract international tourists to the country. This study attempts to model and to forecast tourism demand for Malaysia by three selected countries: the US, Japan and South Korea. This study utilized monthly time series data for the period from January 1999 to December 2012 and employed the well-known Box-Jenkins seasonal ARIMA modeling procedures. Not surprisingly the results show the number of tourist arrivals from the three countries contain strong seasonal component as the arrivals strongly dependent on the season in the country of origin. The findings of the study also show that the number of tourist arrivals from the US and South Korea will continue to increase in the near future. Meanwhile the arrivals from Japan is forecasted to show a drop in the near future and as such tourism authorities in Malaysia need to enhance the promotional effort to attract more tourists from Japan to visit Malaysia.

  18. Forecasting peak ozone levels

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Simpson, R.W.; Layton, A.P.

    1983-01-01

    Box-Jenkins (1970) time series models are used to predict peak afternoon O3 levels. Data sets from three monitoring stations in Brisbane, Queensland, Australia, are used in the analysis, one of the stations being inner-city and the others being outer-city. It is found that univariate models using only the peak O3 data-set at a site to predict future peak O3 levels are unsatisfactory. However bivariate models using peak O3 data from one site to predict peak O3 levels at another site yield good results. However it is clear that these results only arise because the O3 is formed in a well mixed layer over the region leading to a high degree of correlation between O3 peaks throughout the region. 15 references.

  19. Deploying the ATLAS Metadata Interface (AMI) on the cloud with Jenkins

    CERN Document Server

    Lambert, Fabian; The ATLAS collaboration

    2016-01-01

    The ATLAS Metadata Interface (AMI) is a mature application of more than 15 years of existence. Mainly used by the ATLAS experiment at CERN, it consists of a very generic tool ecosystem for metadata aggregation and cataloguing. AMI is used by the ATLAS production system, therefore the service must guarantee a high level of availability. We describe our monitoring system and the Jenkins-based strategy used to dynamically test and deploy cloud OpenStack nodes on demand. Moreover, we describe how to switch to a distant replica in case of downtime.

  20. Forecast Models for Estimating Construction Cost of Box Steel Column%钢结构箱型柱施工费用预估模式的研究

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    徐凌; 吕录娜; 邓光莲

    2016-01-01

    过去钢构制作进度预估及成本估价皆为经验法,导致施工进程须依个案加以规划。本研究利用施工现场生产力数据与影响因子,希望能建置一套施工费用预估模式。研究结果发现箱型柱制作作业具有高度重复及线性循环等特性。因此,本研究以线性回归方法建置钢结构箱型柱作业生产力预估模型。由于建置施工费用预估模式能够规划有效进程、方便管控预算成本及控制施工成本,因此可供钢结构厂预估最佳工期与成本,以减少预算损失[1]。%In the past, steel production cost and progress prediction are empirical method, leading to the construction process in accordance with the case of planning. The construction site and the influence factor of productivity data are used in this study, hoping to establish a prediction model of construction cost. The research results show that the production operation of box column has the characteristics of high repetition and linear cycle. Therefore, based on the linear regression method, this study builds the steel box column work productivity prediction model. Because the implementation of construction cost estimate model can effectively plan the process, conveniently control the budget and the construction cost, it can be used to estimate optimum duration and cost for steel structure factory in order to reduce the loss budget.

  1. Category learning in older adulthood: A study of the Shepard, Hovland, and Jenkins (1961) tasks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rabi, Rahel; Minda, John Paul

    2016-03-01

    Shepard, Hovland, and Jenkins (1961) examined the categorization abilities of younger adults using tasks involving single-dimensional rule learning, disjunctive rule learning, and family resemblance learning. The current study examined category learning in older adults using this well-known category set. Older adults, like younger adults, found category tasks with a single relevant dimension the easiest to learn. In contrast to younger adults, older adults found complex disjunctive rule-based categories harder to learn than family resemblance based categories. Disjunctive rule-based category learning appeared to be the most difficult for older adults to learn because this category set placed the heaviest demands on working memory, which is known to be a cognitive function that declines with normal aging. The authors discuss why complex rule-based category learning is considered more difficult for older adults to learn relative to younger adults, drawing parallels to developmental research.

  2. Bento Boxes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hasio, Cindy

    2010-01-01

    Bento boxes are common objects in Japanese culture, designed to hold enough lunch for one person. They have individual compartments and sometimes multiple tiers for rice, vegetables, and other side dishes. They are made of materials ranging from wood, cloth, aluminum, or plastic. In general, the greater the number of foods, the better the box is…

  3. The Careful Puppet Master: Reducing risk and fortifying acceptance testing with Jenkins CI

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Jason A.; Richman, Gabriel; DeStefano, John; Pryor, James; Rao, Tejas; Strecker-Kellogg, William; Wong, Tony

    2015-12-01

    Centralized configuration management, including the use of automation tools such as Puppet, can greatly increase provisioning speed and efficiency when configuring new systems or making changes to existing systems, reduce duplication of work, and improve automated processes. However, centralized management also brings with it a level of inherent risk: a single change in just one file can quickly be pushed out to thousands of computers and, if that change is not properly and thoroughly tested and contains an error, could result in catastrophic damage to many services, potentially bringing an entire computer facility offline. Change management procedures can—and should—be formalized in order to prevent such accidents. However, like the configuration management process itself, if such procedures are not automated, they can be difficult to enforce strictly. Therefore, to reduce the risk of merging potentially harmful changes into our production Puppet environment, we have created an automated testing system, which includes the Jenkins CI tool, to manage our Puppet testing process. This system includes the proposed changes and runs Puppet on a pool of dozens of RedHat Enterprise Virtualization (RHEV) virtual machines (VMs) that replicate most of our important production services for the purpose of testing. This paper describes our automated test system and how it hooks into our production approval process for automatic acceptance testing. All pending changes that have been pushed to production must pass this validation process before they can be approved and merged into production.

  4. Virtual box

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stougaard, Malthe Kirkhoff

    2007-01-01

    Mediated intimacy is the phenomenon where humans use technologies to express, share, or communicate intimate feelings with each other. Typically, technologies supporting mediated intimacy encompass different characteristics than technologies designed to solve specific work-oriented tasks. This pa......Mediated intimacy is the phenomenon where humans use technologies to express, share, or communicate intimate feelings with each other. Typically, technologies supporting mediated intimacy encompass different characteristics than technologies designed to solve specific work-oriented tasks....... This paper reports on the design, implementation and initial evaluation of Virtual Box. Virtual Box attempts to create a physical and engaging context in order to support reciprocal interactions with expressive content. An implemented version of Virtual Box is evaluated in a location-aware environment...

  5. Time Series Forecasting by using Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average: Subset, Multiplicative or Additive Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Suhartono

    2011-01-01

    and additive SARIMA models gave more accurate forecasted values at out-sample datasets than multiplicative SARIMA model for airline and tourist arrivals datasets respectively. This study is valuable contribution to the Box-Jenkins procedure particularly at the model identification and estimation steps in SARIMA model. Further work involving multiple seasonal ARIMA models, such as short term load data forecasting in certain countries, may provide further insights regarding the subset, multiplicative or additive orders.

  6. Einstein's Boxes

    OpenAIRE

    Norsen, Travis

    2004-01-01

    At the 1927 Solvay conference, Einstein presented a thought experiment intended to demonstrate the incompleteness of the quantum mechanical description of reality. In the following years, the thought experiment was picked up and modified by Einstein, de Broglie, and several other commentators into a simple scenario involving the splitting in half of the wave function of a single particle in a box. In this paper we collect together several formulations of this thought experiment from the exist...

  7. Forecasting and Time Series Analysis of Air Pollutants in Several Area of Malaysia

    OpenAIRE

    Mohd Z. Ibrahim; Roziah Zailan; Marzuki Ismail; Muhd S. Lola

    2009-01-01

    Problem statement: In keeping abreast with Malaysias rapid economic development and to meet the nation's aspiration for an improved quality of life, clean-air legislation limiting industrial and automobile emissions was adopted in 1978. Approach: Yet, to this day, air pollution from both sources still poses a problem for the nation. In order to predict the status of future air quality in Malaysia, a Box-Jenkins ARIMA approach was applied to modeling the time series of monthly maximum 1 h carb...

  8. Shadow boxing

    OpenAIRE

    Pulford, Donald

    2011-01-01

    Shadow Boxing continues my interest in the production/performance of gender on stage. It tells the story of a closeted, gay boxer and the devastation that ensues when he is outed. The central device is the play’s appeal to the audience’s imagined ‘bad faith’ concerning masculinity and the shock when the attendant expectations are subverted or upturned. I expressed the foundation of our enterprise in the New York programme by quoting from Calvin Thomas’s Masculinity, Psychoanalysis, Straight Q...

  9. Forecast Forecasts the Trend

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Wang Ting

    2009-01-01

    @@ The latest release of "2009 China Luxury Forecast" shows that while the financial crisis is leading a general decline in demand for luxury brands in Europe,America and Japan,the global economic downturn has had limited impact on Chinese luxury consumption and that there is widespread confidence in the future among Chinese luxury consumers.

  10. Forecast Forecasts the Trend

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2009-01-01

    The latest release of "2009 China Luxury Forecast" shows that while the financial crisis is leading a general decline in demand for luxury brands in Europe,America and Japan,the global economic downturn has had limited impact on Chinese luxury consumption and that there is widespread confidence in the future among Chinese luxury consumers.

  11. Short term forecasting of petroleum product demand in France; Modelisation a court terme des consommations de produits petroliers en France

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cadren, M

    1998-06-23

    The analysis of petroleum product demand became a privileged thrust of research following the modifications in terms of structure and level of the petroleum markets since eighties. The greatest importance to econometrics models of Energy demand, joint works about nonstationary data, explained the development of error-correction models and the co-integration. In this context, the short term econometrics modelling of petroleum product demand does not only focus on forecasts but also on the measure of the gain acquired from using error-correction techniques and co-integration. It`s filling to take the influence of technical improvement and environment pressures into account in econometrics modelling of petroleum products demand. The first part presents the evolution of Energy Demand in France and more particularly the petroleum product demand since 1986. The objective is to determine the main characteristics of each product, which will help us to analyse and validate the econometrics models. The second part focus on the recent developments in times series modelling. We study the problem of nonstationary data and expose different unit root tests. We examine the main approaches to univariate and multivariate modelling with nonstationary data and distinguish the forecasts of the latter`s. The third part is intended to applications; its objective is to illustrate the theoretic developments of the second part with a comparison between the performances of different approaches (approach Box and Jenkins, Johansen approach`s and structural approach). The models will be applied to the main French petroleum market. The observed asymmetrical demand behaviour is also considered. (author) 153 refs.

  12. Cash Flow Prediction Using a Grey-Box Model

    OpenAIRE

    Pang, Yang; Opong, Kwaku; Moutinho, Luia; Li, Yun

    2015-01-01

    This paper tackles the problem of financial forecasting by extending methods developed in automation, engineering and computing science. Current methods existing in the literature for firm-level cash flows are first analysed. Then a grey-box modelling method is developed to elevate the performance of cash-flow prediction. Linear panel data modelling is used as a benchmark model. Experiments with out-of-sample tests are used to validate the grey-box approach. Encouragingly, nonlinear grey-box ...

  13. Forecasting trade

    OpenAIRE

    Keck, Alexander; Raubold, Alexander

    2006-01-01

    This paper develops a set of time series models to provide short-term forecasts (6 to 18 months ahead) of international trade both at the global level and for selected regions. Our results compare favourably to other forecasts, notably by the International Monetary Fund, as measured by standard evaluation measures, such as the root mean square forecast error. In comparison to other models, our approach offers several methodological advantages, inter alia, a focus on import growth as the core ...

  14. Evolving time series forecasting ARMA models

    OpenAIRE

    Cortez, Paulo; Rocha, Miguel

    2004-01-01

    Nowadays, the ability to forecast the future, based only on past data, leads to strategic advantages, which may be the key to success in organizations. Time Series Forecasting (TSF) allows the modeling of complex systems as ``black-boxes'', being a focus of attention in several research arenas such as Operational Research, Statistics or Computer Science. Alternative TSF approaches emerged from the Artificial Intelligence arena, where optimization algorithms inspired on natural selection pr...

  15. Time series analysis of dengue incidence in Guadeloupe, French West Indies: Forecasting models using climate variables as predictors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ruche Guy

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background During the last decades, dengue viruses have spread throughout the Americas region, with an increase in the number of severe forms of dengue. The surveillance system in Guadeloupe (French West Indies is currently operational for the detection of early outbreaks of dengue. The goal of the study was to improve this surveillance system by assessing a modelling tool to predict the occurrence of dengue epidemics few months ahead and thus to help an efficient dengue control. Methods The Box-Jenkins approach allowed us to fit a Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA model of dengue incidence from 2000 to 2006 using clinical suspected cases. Then, this model was used for calculating dengue incidence for the year 2007 compared with observed data, using three different approaches: 1 year-ahead, 3 months-ahead and 1 month-ahead. Finally, we assessed the impact of meteorological variables (rainfall, temperature and relative humidity on the prediction of dengue incidence and outbreaks, incorporating them in the model fitting the best. Results The 3 months-ahead approach was the most appropriate for an effective and operational public health response, and the most accurate (Root Mean Square Error, RMSE = 0.85. Relative humidity at lag-7 weeks, minimum temperature at lag-5 weeks and average temperature at lag-11 weeks were variables the most positively correlated to dengue incidence in Guadeloupe, meanwhile rainfall was not. The predictive power of SARIMA models was enhanced by the inclusion of climatic variables as external regressors to forecast the year 2007. Temperature significantly affected the model for better dengue incidence forecasting (p-value = 0.03 for minimum temperature lag-5, p-value = 0.02 for average temperature lag-11 but not humidity. Minimum temperature at lag-5 weeks was the best climatic variable for predicting dengue outbreaks (RMSE = 0.72. Conclusion Temperature improves dengue outbreaks forecasts

  16. Podpora pro užití jazyka Python pro vývoj zásuvných modulů serveru Jenkins

    OpenAIRE

    Bambas, Tomáš

    2014-01-01

    Server pro průběžnou integraci Jenkins CI umožňuje rozšiřovat svou funkcionalitu pomocí zásuvných modulů. Tyto moduly lze programovat v jazycích Java a Ruby. Podpora pro jazyk Python chybí, přestože se jedná o jeden z nejpopulárnějších programovacích jazyků současnosti. Implementovali jsme proto vývojářské nástroje, které umožňují programovat moduly v jazyce Python a tyto nástroje jsme začlenili do projektu Jenkins CI. K nástrojům byla zveřejněna uživatelská dokumentace. Programátoři mohou te...

  17. Exposure Forecaster

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — The Exposure Forecaster Database (ExpoCastDB) is EPA's database for aggregating chemical exposure information and can be used to help with chemical exposure...

  18. Strategic Forecasting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Duus, Henrik Johannsen

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this article is to present an overview of the area of strategic forecasting and its research directions and to put forward some ideas for improving management decisions. Design/methodology/approach: This article is conceptual but also informed by the author’s long contact...... and collaboration with various business firms. It starts by presenting an overview of the area and argues that the area is as much a way of thinking as a toolbox of theories and methodologies. It then spells out a number of research directions and ideas for management. Findings: Strategic forecasting is seen...... as a rebirth of long range planning, albeit with new methods and theories. Firms should make the building of strategic forecasting capability a priority. Research limitations/implications: The article subdivides strategic forecasting into three research avenues and suggests avenues for further research efforts...

  19. Strategic Forecasting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Duus, Henrik Johannsen

    2016-01-01

    as a rebirth of long range planning, albeit with new methods and theories. Firms should make the building of strategic forecasting capability a priority. Research limitations/implications: The article subdivides strategic forecasting into three research avenues and suggests avenues for further research efforts......Purpose: The purpose of this article is to present an overview of the area of strategic forecasting and its research directions and to put forward some ideas for improving management decisions. Design/methodology/approach: This article is conceptual but also informed by the author’s long contact...... and collaboration with various business firms. It starts by presenting an overview of the area and argues that the area is as much a way of thinking as a toolbox of theories and methodologies. It then spells out a number of research directions and ideas for management. Findings: Strategic forecasting is seen...

  20. Shaping 3-D boxes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stenholt, Rasmus; Madsen, Claus B.

    2011-01-01

    Enabling users to shape 3-D boxes in immersive virtual environments is a non-trivial problem. In this paper, a new family of techniques for creating rectangular boxes of arbitrary position, orientation, and size is presented and evaluated. These new techniques are based solely on position data......, making them different from typical, existing box shaping techniques. The basis of the proposed techniques is a new algorithm for constructing a full box from just three of its corners. The evaluation of the new techniques compares their precision and completion times in a 9 degree-of-freedom (Do......F) docking experiment against an existing technique, which requires the user to perform the rotation and scaling of the box explicitly. The precision of the users' box construction is evaluated by a novel error metric measuring the difference between two boxes. The results of the experiment strongly indicate...

  1. Forecasting metal prices: Do forecasters herd?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pierdzioch, C.; Rulke, J. C.; Stadtmann, G.

    2013-01-01

    We analyze more than 20,000 forecasts of nine metal prices at four different forecast horizons. We document that forecasts are heterogeneous and report that anti-herding appears to be a source of this heterogeneity. Forecaster anti-herding reflects strategic interactions among forecasters that fo...... that foster incentives to scatter forecasts around a consensus forecast. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved....

  2. ALUMINUM BOX BUNDLING PRESS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iosif DUMITRESCU

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available In municipal solid waste, aluminum is the main nonferrous metal, approximately 80- 85% of the total nonferrous metals. The income per ton gained from aluminum recuperation is 20 times higher than from glass, steel boxes or paper recuperation. The object of this paper is the design of a 300 kN press for aluminum box bundling.

  3. The mirror box

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, Gene; Mathieson, Don

    2001-11-01

    The mirror box is an old standby in magic shows and an impressive demonstration of the law of reflection for the physics instructor. The box creates the illusion of an object floating in space by the use of a plane mirror.

  4. Cable Tester Box

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Jason H.

    2011-01-01

    Cables are very important electrical devices that carry power and signals across multiple instruments. Any fault in a cable can easily result in a catastrophic outcome. Therefore, verifying that all cables are built to spec is a very important part of Electrical Integration Procedures. Currently, there are two methods used in lab for verifying cable connectivity. (1) Using a Break-Out Box and an ohmmeter this method is time-consuming but effective for custom cables and (2) Commercial Automated Cable Tester Boxes this method is fast, but to test custom cables often requires pre-programmed configuration files, and cables used on spacecraft are often uniquely designed for specific purposes. The idea is to develop a semi-automatic continuity tester that reduces human effort in cable testing, speeds up the electrical integration process, and ensures system safety. The JPL-Cable Tester Box is developed to check every single possible electrical connection in a cable in parallel. This system indicates connectivity through LED (light emitting diode) circuits. Users can choose to test any pin/shell (test node) with a single push of a button, and any other nodes that are shorted to the test node, even if they are in the same connector, will light up with the test node. The JPL-Cable Tester Boxes offers the following advantages: 1. Easy to use: The architecture is simple enough that it only takes 5 minutes for anyone to learn how operate the Cable Tester Box. No pre-programming and calibration are required, since this box only checks continuity. 2. Fast: The cable tester box checks all the possible electrical connections in parallel at a push of a button. If a cable normally takes half an hour to test, using the Cable Tester Box will improve the speed to as little as 60 seconds to complete. 3. Versatile: Multiple cable tester boxes can be used together. As long as all the boxes share the same electrical potential, any number of connectors can be tested together.

  5. Probabilistic runoff volume forecasting in risk-based optimization for RTC of urban drainage systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Löwe, Roland; Vezzaro, Luca; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen;

    2016-01-01

    overflow risk. The stochastic control framework and the performance of the runoff forecasting models are tested in a case study in Copenhagen (76 km2 with 6 sub-catchments and 7 control points) using 2-h radar rainfall forecasts and inlet flows to control points computed from a variety of noisy....../oscillating in-sewer measurements. Radar rainfall forecasts as model inputs yield considerably lower runoff forecast skills than “perfect” gauge-based rainfall observations (ex-post hindcasting). Nevertheless, the stochastic grey-box models clearly outperform benchmark forecast models based on exponential......This article demonstrates the incorporation of stochastic grey-box models for urban runoff forecasting into a full-scale, system-wide control setup where setpoints are dynamically optimized considering forecast uncertainty and sensitivity of overflow locations in order to reduce combined sewer...

  6. kjac Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  7. kpdx Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  8. tjsj Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

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  19. pabe Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  20. kiso Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  1. ktop Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  2. kmot Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  3. klse Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  4. ktrk Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  5. pafa Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  6. krvs Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  7. pawg Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  8. khut Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  9. paho Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  10. kbfl Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  11. kcsm Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  12. kdmn Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  13. kglh Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  14. ksjt Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  15. kmbg Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  16. kpdk Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  17. kbrl Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  18. kpeq Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  19. kbhm Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  20. kvel Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  1. kpbg Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  2. kcpr Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  3. kgrb Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  4. kbis Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  5. kcmi Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  6. katw Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  7. khys Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  8. kgck Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  9. ktix Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  10. ktex Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  11. phmk Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  12. kart Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  13. kpbf Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  14. kenw Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  15. ptkk Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  16. kaby Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  17. kmhr Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  18. kahn Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  19. kmce Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  20. kcys Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  1. kisp Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  2. kcgi Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  3. keug Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  4. kaeg Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  5. klwb Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  6. ksua Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  7. kmer Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  8. kiwa Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  9. kfoe Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  10. kacv Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  11. kdbq Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  12. kshv Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  13. pkmj Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  14. kmia Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  15. keyw Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  16. The BOXES Methodology Black Box Dynamic Control

    CERN Document Server

    Russell, David W

    2012-01-01

    Robust control mechanisms customarily require knowledge of the system’s describing equations which may be of the high order differential type.  In order to produce these equations, mathematical models can often be derived and correlated with measured dynamic behavior.  There are two flaws in this approach one is the level of inexactness introduced by linearizations and the other when no model is apparent.  Several years ago a new genre of control systems came to light that are much less dependent on differential models such as fuzzy logic and genetic algorithms. Both of these soft computing solutions require quite considerable a priori system knowledge to create a control scheme and sometimes complicated training program before they can be implemented in a real world dynamic system. Michie and Chambers’ BOXES methodology created a black box system that was designed to control a mechanically unstable system with very little a priori system knowledge, linearization or approximation.  All the method need...

  17. Depth in box spaces.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pont, Sylvia C; Nefs, Harold T; van Doorn, Andrea J; Wijntjes, Maarten W A; Te Pas, Susan F; de Ridder, Huib; Koenderink, Jan J

    2012-01-01

    Human observers adjust the frontal view of a wireframe box on a computer screen so as to look equally deep and wide, so that in the intended setting the box looks like a cube. Perspective cues are limited to the size-distance effect, since all angles are fixed. Both the size on the screen, and the viewing distance from the observer to the screen were varied. All observers prefer a template view of a cube over a veridical rendering, independent of picture size and viewing distance. If the rendering shows greater or lesser foreshortening than the template, the box appears like a long corridor or a shallow slab, that is, like a 'deformed' cube. Thus observers ignore 'veridicality'. This does not fit an 'inverse optics' model. We discuss a model of 'vision as optical user interface'.

  18. Weather forecast

    CERN Document Server

    Courtier, P

    1994-01-01

    Weather prediction is performed using the numerical model of the atmosphere evolution.The evolution equations are derived from the Navier Stokes equation for the adiabatic part but the are very much complicated by the change of phase of water, the radiation porocess and the boundary layer.The technique used operationally is described. Weather prediction is an initial value problem and accurate initial conditions need to be specified. Due to the small number of observations available (105 ) as compared to the dimension of the model state variable (107),the problem is largely underdetermined. Techniques of optimal control and inverse problems are used and have been adapted to the large dimension of our problem. our problem.The at mosphere is a chaotic system; the implication for weather prediction is discussed. Ensemble prediction is used operationally and the technique for generating initial conditions which lead to a numerical divergence of the subsequent forecasts is described.

  19. Opto-Box

    CERN Document Server

    Bertsche, David; The ATLAS collaboration; Welch, Steven; Smith, Dale Shane; Che, Siinn; Gan, K.K.; Boyd, George Russell Jr

    2015-01-01

    The opto-box is a custom mini-crate for housing optical modules, which process and transfer optoelectronic data. The system tightly integrates electrical, mechanical, and thermal functionality into a small package of size 35x10x8 cm^3. Special attention was given to ensure proper shielding, grounding, cooling, high reliability, and environmental tolerance. The custom modules, which incorporate Application Specific Integrated Circuits (ASICs), were developed through a cycle of rigorous testing and redesign. In total, fourteen opto-boxes have been installed and loaded with modules on the ATLAS detector. They are currently in operation as part of the LHC run 2 data read-out chain.

  20. Hydrophobic, Porous Battery Boxes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bragg, Bobby J.; Casey, John E., Jr.

    1995-01-01

    Boxes made of porous, hydrophobic polymers developed to contain aqueous potassium hydroxide electrolyte solutions of zinc/air batteries while allowing air to diffuse in as needed for operation. Used on other types of batteries for in-cabin use in which electrolytes aqueous and from which gases generated during operation must be vented without allowing electrolytes to leak out.

  1. Cereal Box Totems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, AnnMarie

    2002-01-01

    Presents a multicultural project used with fourth-grade students in which they created a three-dimensional totem pole using leftover cereal boxes. Discusses in detail how to create the totem pole. Explains that students learned about Northwest American Indians in class. (CMK)

  2. Analysis of Tendencies Towards Changes in Temperatures of Railway Vehicle Axle Boxes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olegas Lunys

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available The paper analyzes variations in the temperature of axle-box heating of railroad rolling stock considering two modes of the train - driving and parking position. Additionally, the article describes the influence of the axle load and season on the heat of the axle-box, forecasts intolerable residual resources and explains a possibility of detecting likely breakage at the very beginning of defects. The paper also deals with scientific literature related to axle-box heating and focuses on the conducted practical and theoretical experiments. The carried out research has established the rates of operating heating and critical heating. The application of numerical values for the algorithm of automatic control devices could help with detecting the breakdowns of the axle-box before they reach a critical state and assist in forecasting residual operating resources.

  3. Opto-Box

    CERN Document Server

    Bertsche, David; The ATLAS collaboration

    2015-01-01

    The opto-box is a custom mini-crate for housing optical modules, which process and transfer optoelectronic data. Many novel solutions were developed for the custom design and manufacturing. The system tightly integrates electrical, mechanical, and thermal functionality into a small package of size 35x10x8 cm$^{3}$. Special attention was given to ensure proper shielding, grounding, cooling, high reliability, and environmental tolerance. The custom modules, which incorporate Application Specific Integrated Circuits (ASICs), were developed through a cycle of rigorous testing and redesign. In total, fourteen opto-boxes have been installed and loaded with modules on the ATLAS detector. They are currently in operation as part of the LHC run 2 data read-out chain.

  4. The Box Method

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Peter Vilhelm

    The velocity level in a room ventilated by jet ventilation is strongly influenced by the supply conditions. The momentum flow in the supply jets controls the air movement in the room and, therefore, it is very important that the inlet conditions and the numerical method can generate a satisfactory...... description of this momentum flow. The Box Method is a practical method for the description of an Air Terminal Device which will save grid points and ensure the right level of the momentum flow....

  5. The Electronic Battle Box

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gouin, Denis; Turcotte, Guy; Lebel, Eric; Gilbert, Annie

    2000-08-01

    The Electronic Battle Box is an integrated suite of planning and decision-aid tools specially designed to facilitate Canadian Armed Force Officers during their training and during their tasks of preparing and conducting military operations. It is the result of a collaborative effort between the Defence Research Establishment Valcartier, the Directorate of Army Doctrine (DAD), the Directorate of Land Requirements (DLR), the G4 staff of 1Cdn Div HQ and CGI Information and Management Consultants Inc. Distributed on CD-ROM, the Electronic Battle Box contains efficient and user-friendly tools that significantly reduce the planning time for military operations and ensure staff officers a better focus on significant tasks. Among the tools are an OrBat Browser and an Equipment Browser allowing to view and edit military organizations, a Task Browser providing facilities to prepare plans using Gantt charts, a Logistic Planner allowing to estimate supply requirements applying complex calculations, and Road, Air and Rail Movement Planners. EBB also provides staff officers with a large set of doctrinal documents in an electronic format. This paper provides an overview of the various tools of the Electronic Battle Box.

  6. Development of golf tourism and golf tourism demand forecasts in Turkey: a study of Belek region Türkiye’de golf turizminin gelişimi ve golf turizmi talebi tahminleri: Belek bölgesine yönelik bir çalışma

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Murat Çuhadar

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Golf tourism has become one of the rapidly developing tourism types in Turkey, especially in the Belek region. In this study, detailed information about the development of golf tourism in Turkey from past to present was provided and  golf tourism demand to Belek region which is a major golf tourism destinastion in the world and Turkey was modeled and forecasted monthly by Box-Jenkins methodology for the May 2013 –December 2014 period. As a measure of golf tourism demand, number of monthly golf games were taken in the study and the monthly number of golf game statistics of January 2001 – April 2013 in the golf establishments in Belek tourism center were used. By producing ex-ante forecasts it is aimed to create a basis for tourism development plans prepared by the management of private and public sector and to provide support for administrators’ monthly planning decisions.Golf turizmi, Belek bölgesi başta olmak üzere Türkiye’de hızla gelişen turizm türlerinden biri haline gelmiştir. Bu çalışmada, Türkiye’de golf turizminin geçmişten günümüze gelişimi hakkında ayrıntılı bilgiler sunularak, Türkiye’nin ve dünyanın önde gelen golf turizmi merkezlerinden olan Belek turizm merkezine yönelik golf turizmi talebi Box-Jenkins metodoljisi ile modellenmiş ve 2013 (Mayıs itibariyle ve 2014 yılları için aylık olarak tahmin edilmiştir. Çalışmada golf turizmi talebinin ölçüsü olarak golf oyun sayıları alınmış ve Ocak 2001 – Nisan 2013 döneminde Belek turizm merkezindeki golf tesislerinde gerçekleşen aylık golf oyun sayısı istatistiklerinden yararlanılmıştır. Yapılan tahminler ile, özel sektör ve kamu yönetimleri tarafından hazırlanan turistik gelişme planları için bir zemin oluşturulması ve ilgili yöneticilerin aylık planlamalarında karar almalarına destek sağlanması amaçlanmıştır.

  7. Improving Software Reliability Forecasting

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Burtsy, Bernard; Albeanu, Grigore; Boros, Dragos N.; Popentiu, Florin; Nicola, Victor

    1997-01-01

    This work investigates some methods for software reliability forecasting. A supermodel is presented as a suited tool for prediction of reliability in software project development. Also, times series forecasting for cumulative interfailure time is proposed and illustrated.

  8. Forecasting the macro economy

    OpenAIRE

    Robert Ewing; David Gruen; John Hawkins

    2005-01-01

    This article examines Treasury's macroeconomic forecasting performance over the period from 1989-90 to 2003-04, with a focus on forecasts of nominal and real GDP, the GDP deflator, the unemployment rate, and CPI inflation.

  9. FORECASTING IN FUZZY SYSTEMS

    OpenAIRE

    HSIAO-FAN WANG; RUEY-CHYN TSAUR

    2011-01-01

    Fuzzy regression has been applied to marketing, management, and sales forecasting for many years. In this paper, two types of forecasting methods within the framework of fuzzy regression analysis are discussed. The first type is a conventional forecasting method, which intends to find the value of a dependent variable when the given values of independent variables are beyond the range covered by historical data. The second type considers forecasting in which the necessary values of independen...

  10. Inflation Forecast Contracts

    OpenAIRE

    Gersbach, Hans; Hahn, Volker

    2011-01-01

    We introduce a new type of incentive contract for central bankers: inflation forecast contracts, which make central bankers’ remunerations contingent on the precision of their inflation forecasts. We show that such contracts enable central bankers to influence inflation expectations more effectively, thus facilitating more successful stabilization of current inflation. Inflation forecast contracts improve the accuracy of inflation forecasts, but have adverse consequences for output. On balanc...

  11. Twitter Improves Influenza Forecasting

    OpenAIRE

    Paul, Michael J.; Dredze, Mark; Broniatowski, David

    2014-01-01

    Accurate disease forecasts are imperative when preparing for influenza epidemic outbreaks; nevertheless, these forecasts are often limited by the time required to collect new, accurate data. In this paper, we show that data from the microblogging community Twitter significantly improves influenza forecasting. Most prior influenza forecast models are tested against historical influenza-like illness (ILI) data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). These data are releas...

  12. Evaluating macroeconomic risk forecasts

    OpenAIRE

    Knüppel, Malte; Schultefrankenfeld, Guido

    2011-01-01

    Macroeconomic risk assessments play an important role in the forecasts of many institutions. A risk forecast is related to the potential asymmetry of the forecast density. In this work, we investigate how the optimality of such risk forecasts can be tested. We find that the Pearson mode skewness outperforms the standard third-moment-based skewness as a measure of asymmetry. We consider problems of the tests likely to be encountered in practice and try to offer remedies where possible. In gene...

  13. Benchmarking judgmentally adjusted forecasts

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ph.H.B.F. Franses (Philip Hans); L.P. de Bruijn (Bert)

    2015-01-01

    markdownabstractMany publicly available macroeconomic forecasts are judgmentally-adjusted model-based forecasts. In practice usually only a single final forecast is available, and not the underlying econometric model, nor are the size and reason for adjustment known. Hence, the relative weights give

  14. Managing Sales Forecasters

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    L.P. de Bruijn (Bert); Ph.H.B.F. Franses (Philip Hans)

    2012-01-01

    textabstractA Forecast Support System (FSS), which generates sales forecasts, is a sophisticated business analytical tool that can help to improve targeted business decisions. Many companies use such a tool, although at the same time they may allow managers to quote their own forecasts. These sales

  15. Projection optics box

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hale, Layton C.; Malsbury, Terry; Hudyma, Russell M.; Parker, John M.

    2000-01-01

    A projection optics box or assembly for use in an optical assembly, such as in an extreme ultraviolet lithography (EUVL) system using 10-14 nm soft x-ray photons. The projection optics box utilizes a plurality of highly reflective optics or mirrors, each mounted on a precision actuator, and which reflects an optical image, such as from a mask, in the EUVL system onto a point of use, such as a target or silicon wafer, the mask, for example, receiving an optical signal from a source assembly, such as a developed from laser system, via a series of highly reflective mirrors of the EUVL system. The plurality of highly reflective optics or mirrors are mounted in a housing assembly comprised of a series of bulkheads having wall members secured together to form a unit construction of maximum rigidity. Due to the precision actuators, the mirrors must be positioned precisely and remotely in tip, tilt, and piston (three degrees of freedom), while also providing exact constraint.

  16. An ARIMA model for forecasting Wi-Fi data network traffic values

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cesar Augusto Hernández Suarez

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available This present scientific and technological research was aimed at showing that time series represent an excellent tool for data traffic modelling within Wi-Fi networks. Box-Jenkins methodology (described herein was used for this purpose. Wi-Fi traffic modelling through correlated models, such as time series, allowed a great part of the data’s behaviourl dynamics to be adjusted into a sin- gle equation and future traffic values to be estimated based on this. All this is advantageous when it comes to planning integrated coverage, reserving resources and performing more efficient and timely control at different levels of the Wi-Fi data network func- tional hierarchy. A six order ARIMA traffic model was obtained as a research outcome which predicted traffic with relatively small mean square error values for an 18-day term.

  17. Probabilistic Forecasting for On-line Operation of Urban Drainage Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Löwe, Roland

    -box model approach. Building on previous work concerning the development of conceptual stochastic rainfall-runoff model structures, we - investigate approaches for the calibration of model parameters that tune the models for multistep predictions, - develop an approach for generating probabilistic multistep...... predictions of runoff volume in an on-line setting, - develop a new approach for dynamically modelling runoff forecast uncertainty. We investigate how rainfall inputs can be optimally combined for runoff forecasting with stochastic grey-box models and what effect different types of radar rainfall measurements......This thesis deals with the generation of probabilistic forecasts in urban hydrology. In particular, we focus on the case of runoff forecasting for real-time control (RTC) on horizons of up to two hours. For the generation of probabilistic on-line runoff forecasts, we apply the stochastic grey...

  18. The Classroom Animal: Box Turtles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kramer, David C.

    1986-01-01

    Provides basic information on the anatomy, physiology, behaviors, and distribution patterns of the box turtle. Offers suggestions for the turtle's care and maintenance in a classroom environment. (ML)

  19. Evaluating probability forecasts

    CERN Document Server

    Lai, Tze Leung; Shen, David Bo; 10.1214/11-AOS902

    2012-01-01

    Probability forecasts of events are routinely used in climate predictions, in forecasting default probabilities on bank loans or in estimating the probability of a patient's positive response to treatment. Scoring rules have long been used to assess the efficacy of the forecast probabilities after observing the occurrence, or nonoccurrence, of the predicted events. We develop herein a statistical theory for scoring rules and propose an alternative approach to the evaluation of probability forecasts. This approach uses loss functions relating the predicted to the actual probabilities of the events and applies martingale theory to exploit the temporal structure between the forecast and the subsequent occurrence or nonoccurrence of the event.

  20. ACSYS in a box

    CERN Document Server

    Briegel, C; Hendricks, B; King, C; Lackey, S; Neswold, R; Nicklaus, D; Patrick, J; Petrov, A; Rechenmacher, R; Schumann, C; Smedinghoff, J

    2012-01-01

    The Accelerator Control System at Fermilab has evolved to enable this relatively large control system to be encapsulated into a "box" such as a laptop. The goal was to provide a platform isolated from the "online" control system. This platform can be used internally for making major upgrades and modifications without impacting operations. It also provides a standalone environment for research and development including a turnkey control system for collaborators. Over time, the code base running on Scientific Linux has enabled all the salient features of the Fermilab's control system to be captured in an off-the-shelf laptop. The anticipated additional benefits of packaging the system include improved maintenance, reliability, documentation, and future enhancements.

  1. Glove-box filters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Description is given of a device for simply and rapidly assembling and dissassembling the filters used inside sealed enclosures, such as glove-boxes and shielded cells equipped with nippers or manipulators, said filters being of the type comprising a cylindrical casing containing a filtering member, the upper portion of said casing being open so as to allow the gases to be cleaned to flow in, whereas the casing bottom is centrally provided with a hole extended outwardly by a threaded collar on which is screwed a connecting-sleeve to be fixed to the mouth of a gas outlet pipe. To a yoke transverse bar is welded a pin which can be likened to a bent spring-blade, one arm of which welded to said transverse bar, is rectilinear whereas its other arm is provided with a boss cooperating with a cavity made in a protrusion of said pipe, right under the mouth thereof

  2. Polymers in Curved Boxes

    CERN Document Server

    Yaman, K; Solis, F J; Witten, T A

    1996-01-01

    We apply results derived in other contexts for the spectrum of the Laplace operator in curved geometries to the study of an ideal polymer chain confined to a spherical annulus in arbitrary space dimension D and conclude that the free energy compared to its value for an uncurved box of the same thickness and volume, is lower when $D < 3$, stays the same when $D = 3$, and is higher when lowers the effective bending elasticity of the walls, and might induce spontaneous symmetry breaking, i.e. bending. (Actually, the above mentioned results show that {\\em {any}} shell in $D = 3$ induces this effect, except for a spherical shell). We compute the contribution of this effect to the bending rigidities in the Helfrich free energy expression.

  3. Operational river discharge forecasting in poorly gauged basins: the Kavango River basin case study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bauer-Gottwein, Peter; Jensen, Iris Hedegaard; Guzinski, R.;

    2015-01-01

    Operational probabilistic forecasts of river discharge are essential for effective water resources management. Many studies have addressed this topic using different approaches ranging from purely statistical black-box approaches to physically based and distributed modeling schemes employing data...... assimilation techniques. However, few studies have attempted to develop operational probabilistic forecasting approaches for large and poorly gauged river basins. The objective of this study is to develop open-source software tools to support hydrologic forecasting and integrated water resources management...... for the Kavango River, which are reliable and sharp. Results indicate that the value of the forecasts is greatest for intermediate lead times between 4 and 7 days....

  4. Energy forecast. Final report; Energiudsigten. Slutrapport

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2010-04-15

    A number of instruments, i.e. Internet, media campaigns, boxes displaying electricity prices (SEE1) and spot contract has been tested for households to shift their electricity consumption to times when prices are low. Of the implemented media campaigns, only the daily viewing of Energy forecast on TV had an impact. Consumers gained greater knowledge of electricity prices and electricity consumption loads, but only showed little interest in shifting electricity consumption. However, a measurable effect appeared at night with the group that had both concluded a spot contract and received an SEE1. These factors increase the awareness of the price of electricity and the possibility of shifting electricity consumption. (Energy 10)

  5. Long-range forecasting of intermittent streamflow

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. F. van Ogtrop

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Long-range forecasting of intermittent streamflow in semi-arid Australia poses a number of major challenges. One of the challenges relates to modelling zero, skewed, non-stationary, and non-linear data. To address this, a probabilistic statistical model to forecast streamflow 12 months ahead is applied to five semi-arid catchments in South Western Queensland. The model uses logistic regression through Generalised Additive Models for Location, Scale and Shape (GAMLSS to determine the probability of flow occurring in any of the systems. We then use the same regression framework in combination with a right-skewed distribution, the Box-Cox t distribution, to model the intensity (depth of the non-zero streamflows. Time, seasonality and climate indices, describing the Pacific and Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures, are tested as covariates in the GAMLSS model to make probabilistic 12-month forecasts of the occurrence and intensity of streamflow. The output reveals that in the study region the occurrence and variability of flow is driven by sea surface temperatures and therefore forecasts can be made with some skill.

  6. Inaccuracy in traffic forecasts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Flyvbjerg, Bent; Holm, Mette K. Skamris; Buhl, Søren Ladegaard

    2006-01-01

    This paper presents results from the first statistically significant study of traffic forecasts in transportation infrastructure projects. The sample used is the largest of its kind, covering 210 projects in 14 nations worth US$58 billion. The study shows with very high statistical significance......, the difference between actual and forecasted traffic is more than +-20%; for 25% of road projects, the difference is larger than +-40%. Forecasts for roads are more accurate and more balanced than for rail, with no significant difference between the frequency of inflated versus deflated forecasts. But for both...... forecasting. Highly inaccurate traffic forecasts combined with large standard deviations translate into large financial and economic risks. But such risks are typically ignored or downplayed by planners and decision-makers, to the detriment of social and economic welfare. The paper presents the data...

  7. State-space adjustment of radar rainfall and skill score evaluation of stochastic volume forecasts in urban drainage systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Löwe, Roland; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen; Rasmussen, Michael Robdrup;

    2013-01-01

    improves runoff forecasts compared with using the original radar data and that rain gauge measurements as forecast input are also outperformed. Combining the data merging approach with short-term rainfall forecasting algorithms may result in further improved runoff forecasts that can be used in real time......Merging of radar rainfall data with rain gauge measurements is a common approach to overcome problems in deriving rain intensities from radar measurements. We extend an existing approach for adjustment of C-band radar data using state-space models and use the resulting rainfall intensities as input...... for forecasting outflow from two catchments in the Copenhagen area. Stochastic grey-box models are applied to create the runoff forecasts, providing us with not only a point forecast but also a quantification of the forecast uncertainty. Evaluating the results, we can show that using the adjusted radar data...

  8. Forecaster priorities for improving probabilistic flood forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wetterhall, Fredrik; Pappenberger, Florian; Alfieri, Lorenzo; Cloke, Hannah; Thielen, Jutta

    2014-05-01

    Hydrological ensemble prediction systems (HEPS) have in recent years been increasingly used for the operational forecasting of floods by European hydrometeorological agencies. The most obvious advantage of HEPS is that more of the uncertainty in the modelling system can be assessed. In addition, ensemble prediction systems generally have better skill than deterministic systems both in the terms of the mean forecast performance and the potential forecasting of extreme events. Research efforts have so far mostly been devoted to the improvement of the physical and technical aspects of the model systems, such as increased resolution in time and space and better description of physical processes. Developments like these are certainly needed; however, in this paper we argue that there are other areas of HEPS that need urgent attention. This was also the result from a group exercise and a survey conducted to operational forecasters within the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS) to identify the top priorities of improvement regarding their own system. They turned out to span a range of areas, the most popular being to include verification of an assessment of past forecast performance, a multi-model approach for hydrological modelling, to increase the forecast skill on the medium range (>3 days) and more focus on education and training on the interpretation of forecasts. In light of limited resources, we suggest a simple model to classify the identified priorities in terms of their cost and complexity to decide in which order to tackle them. This model is then used to create an action plan of short-, medium- and long-term research priorities with the ultimate goal of an optimal improvement of EFAS in particular and to spur the development of operational HEPS in general.

  9. Forecasting for Marketing

    OpenAIRE

    Armstrong, J S; R. Brodie

    2005-01-01

    Research on forecasting is extensive and includes many studies that have tested alternative methods in order to determine which ones are most effective. We review this evidence in order to provide guidelines for forecasting for marketing. The coverage includes intentions, Delphi, role playing, conjoint analysis, judgmental bootstrapping, analogies, extrapolation, rule-based forecasting, expert systems, and econometric methods. We discuss research about which methods are most appropriate to fo...

  10. Evaluating Density Forecasts

    OpenAIRE

    Francis X. Diebold; Todd A. Gunther; Anthony S. Tay

    1997-01-01

    The authors propose methods for evaluating and improving density forecasts. They focus primarily on methods that are applicable regardless of the particular user's loss function, though they take explicit account of the relationships between density forecasts, action choices, and the corresponding expected loss throughout. They illustrate the methods with a detailed series of examples, and they discuss extensions to improving and combining suboptimal density forecasts, multistep-ahead density...

  11. The Black Box QGP

    CERN Document Server

    Tawfik, A

    2006-01-01

    According to the extensive ab initio calculations of lattice QCD, the much large energy density available in the heavy-ion collisions at SPS and now at RHIC should be enough to create the quark-gluon plasma (QGP); a new state of matter in form plasma of free quarks and gluons. The new matter discovered at RHIC is a ''nearly perfect'' fluid rather than a plasma. The shear viscosity is too small. We should then ask about the theoretical and phenomenological consequences and why we simply assumed that the deconfined hadronic matter should be an ideal gas. Finally, I will address five questions; about the properties of the new phases at high temperatures and the orders of phase transitions. Before we clarify such questions, the QGP will remain a kind of black box. One sends a signal via new experiments or simulations and gets another one out if it. Then one try to explain what is going on. I will show that some promising ideas already have been suggested long time ago, but it seems that community didn't care. Is ...

  12. Black Box QGP

    CERN Document Server

    Tawfik, A

    2006-01-01

    According to extensive ab initio calculations of lattice QCD, the very large energy density available in heavy-ion collisions at SPS and now at RHIC must be sufficient to generate quark-gluon plasma (QGP), a new state of matter in the form of plasma of free quarks and gluons. The new state of matter discovered at RHIC seems to be perfect fluid rather than free plasma. Its shear viscosity is assumed to be almost zero. In this work, I first considered the theoretical and phenomenological consequences of this discovery and finally asked questions about the nature of phase transition and properties of matter. It is important to answer these questions, otherwise QGP will remain a kind of black box; one sends a signal via new experiments or simulations or models and gets another one from it. I will show that some promising ideas have already been suggested a long time ago. I will also suggest a new phase diagram with separated deconfinement and freeze-out boundaries and a mixed state of thermal quark matter and bub...

  13. Fiscal Forecasting in Italy

    OpenAIRE

    Carabotta, Laura

    2015-01-01

    [eng] The thesis “Fiscal forecasting in Italy” is comprised of three main chapters in which is analyzed, from an empirical point of view, several issues related to public finance forecasts, with an application to Italy. Chapter II, “Accuracy of fiscal forecasts in Italy” is focused on one of the most important aspects of the new Treaty: it requires that the decisions and recommendations taken by the European Commission are no longer be based on outcomes but on forecasts. In this chapter, I e...

  14. Two-dimensional box plot

    OpenAIRE

    Phattrawan Tongkumchum

    2005-01-01

    In this paper we propose a two-dimensional box plot, a simple bivariate extension of the box plot and the scatter plot. This plot comprises a pair of trapeziums oriented in the direction of a fitted straight line, with symbols denoting extreme values. The choice for the fitted straight resistant line showing the relationship between the two variables is Tukey’s resistance line. The main components of the plot are an inner box containing 50% of the projection points of the observations on the ...

  15. Forecasting the Euro: Do Forecasters Have an Asymmetric Loss Function?

    OpenAIRE

    Fritsche, Ulrich; Pierdzioch, Christian; Ruelke, Jan-Christoph; Stadtmann, Georg

    2012-01-01

    Based on the approach advanced by Elliott et al. (Rev. Ec. Studies. 72, 1197-1125,2005), we analyzed whether the loss function of a sample of exchange rate forecasters is asymmetric in the forecast error. Using forecasts of the euro/dollar exchange rate, we found that the shape of the loss function varies across forecasters. Our empirical results suggest that it is important to account for the heterogeneity of exchange rate forecasts at the microeconomic level of individual forecasters when o...

  16. House Price Forecasts, Forecaster Herding, and the Recent Crisis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christian Pierdzioch

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available We used the Wall Street Journal survey data for the period 2006–2012 to analyze whether forecasts of house prices and housing starts provide evidence of (anti-herding of forecasters. Forecasts are consistent with herding (anti-herding of forecasters if forecasts are biased towards (away from the consensus forecast. We found that anti-herding is prevalent among forecasters of house prices. We also report that, following the recent crisis, the prevalence of forecaster anti-herding seems to have changed over time.

  17. House Price Forecasts, Forecaster Herding, and the Recent Crisis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stadtmann, Georg; Pierdzioch; Ruelke

    2013-01-01

    We used the Wall Street Journal survey data for the period 2006–2012 to analyze whether forecasts of house prices and housing starts provide evidence of (anti-)herding of forecasters. Forecasts are consistent with herding (anti-herding) of forecasters if forecasts are biased towards (away from) t...... consensus forecast. We found that anti-herding is prevalent among forecasters of house prices. We also report that, following the recent crisis, the prevalence of forecaster anti-herding seems to have changed over time....

  18. Computing out of the Box

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2009-01-01

    Baidu unveils "box computing/’ which it hopes will lead to a number of innovations on the InternetBaidu, China’s most popular search engine, held its Technology Innovation Conference 2009 at the China World

  19. Earthquake forecast enrichment scores

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christine Smyth

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available The Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP is a global project aimed at testing earthquake forecast models in a fair environment. Various metrics are currently used to evaluate the submitted forecasts. However, the CSEP still lacks easily understandable metrics with which to rank the universal performance of the forecast models. In this research, we modify a well-known and respected metric from another statistical field, bioinformatics, to make it suitable for evaluating earthquake forecasts, such as those submitted to the CSEP initiative. The metric, originally called a gene-set enrichment score, is based on a Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic. Our modified metric assesses if, over a certain time period, the forecast values at locations where earthquakes have occurred are significantly increased compared to the values for all locations where earthquakes did not occur. Permutation testing allows for a significance value to be placed upon the score. Unlike the metrics currently employed by the CSEP, the score places no assumption on the distribution of earthquake occurrence nor requires an arbitrary reference forecast. In this research, we apply the modified metric to simulated data and real forecast data to show it is a powerful and robust technique, capable of ranking competing earthquake forecasts.

  20. Housing price forecastability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bork, Lasse; Møller, Stig Vinther

    2012-01-01

    We examine US housing price forecastability using a common factor approach based on a large panel of 122 economic time series. We …nd that a simple three-factor model generates an explanatory power of about 50% in one-quarter ahead in-sample forecasting regressions. The predictive power of the mo...

  1. Identifying competencies of boxing coaches

    OpenAIRE

    Ioannis Tasiopoulos; Alexandra Tripolitsiot; Apostolos Stergioula

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to find out the management skills required by boxing coaches to administrate their clubs. For the purposes of this study a scale was constructed which was answered by 98 boxing coaches. Explanatory factor analysis revealed seven factors: Communication-public relations (5 items), event management (4 items), management techniques (4 items), new technologies (4 items), prevention-safety (2 items), sport (5 items) and sports facilities (2 items). The Cronbach of the ...

  2. The strategy of professional forecasting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ottaviani, Marco; Sørensen, Peter Norman

    2006-01-01

    We develop and compare two theories of professional forecasters’ strategic behavior. The first theory, reputational cheap talk, posits that forecasters endeavor to convince the market that they are well informed. The market evaluates their forecasting talent on the basis of the forecasts...... and the realized state. If the market expects forecasters to report their posterior expectations honestly, then forecasts are shaded toward the prior mean. With correct market expectations, equilibrium forecasts are imprecise but not shaded. The second theory posits that forecasters compete in a forecasting...

  3. Plate forming and break down pizza box

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pantisano, Frank; Devine, Scott M.

    1992-01-01

    A standard corrugated paper pizza box is provided with slit cuts cut through the top panel of the pizza box in a shape to form four circular serving plates with a beveled raised edge and cross slit cuts through the bottom panel of the pizza box separating the box into four essentially equal portions for easy disposal.

  4. Hydrology and flow forecasting

    OpenAIRE

    Pang, H; Rao, S.Q.; G. Q. Wang; Huang, X. Q.

    2002-01-01

    We have studied and applied the statistic model (i.e. MMC) and hydrological models to Upper Yellow River. This report introduces the results and some conclusions from the model. The three models, MMC, MWBM and NAM, have be applied in the research area. The forecasted discharge by the three models are closed to the recorded in most low flow months, but in some flood months, the forecasted value is much different with recorded one. And forecasted accuracy by MWBM nearly matches with that by NAM...

  5. Spatial electric load forecasting

    CERN Document Server

    Willis, H Lee

    2002-01-01

    Spatial Electric Load Forecasting Consumer Demand for Power and ReliabilityCoincidence and Load BehaviorLoad Curve and End-Use ModelingWeather and Electric LoadWeather Design Criteria and Forecast NormalizationSpatial Load Growth BehaviorSpatial Forecast Accuracy and Error MeasuresTrending MethodsSimulation Method: Basic ConceptsA Detailed Look at the Simulation MethodBasics of Computerized SimulationAnalytical Building Blocks for Spatial SimulationAdvanced Elements of Computerized SimulationHybrid Trending-Simulation MethodsAdvanced

  6. First-aid boxes - Reminder

    CERN Multimedia

    GS Department

    2010-01-01

    With a view to ensuring optimum use of the first-aid boxes on the CERN site, we should like to remind you of various changes introduced in March 2009: The TSO of the buildings concerned is responsible for the first-aid boxes, including checking their contents.   First-aid boxes may be restocked ONLY at the CERN stores (SCEM No. 54.99.80). This is no longer possible at the Infirmary. The associated cost is charged to the Departments.   First-aid boxes should be used only for mild injuries. All other cases should be referred to the Medical Service Infirmary (Bldg. 57 – ground-floor, tel. 73802) between 8.00 a.m. and 5.30 p.m. or to the Fire and Rescue Service (tel. 74444). N.B.: This information does not apply to the red emergency first-aid boxes in the underground areas or to the emergency kits for use in the event of being splashed with hydrofluoric acid.

  7. Box graphs and resolutions I

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andreas P. Braun

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Box graphs succinctly and comprehensively characterize singular fibers of elliptic fibrations in codimension two and three, as well as flop transitions connecting these, in terms of representation theoretic data. We develop a framework that provides a systematic map between a box graph and a crepant algebraic resolution of the singular elliptic fibration, thus allowing an explicit construction of the fibers from a singular Weierstrass or Tate model. The key tool is what we call a fiber face diagram, which shows the relevant information of a (partial toric triangulation and allows the inclusion of more general algebraic blowups. We shown that each such diagram defines a sequence of weighted algebraic blowups, thus providing a realization of the fiber defined by the box graph in terms of an explicit resolution. We show this correspondence explicitly for the case of SU(5 by providing a map between box graphs and fiber faces, and thereby a sequence of algebraic resolutions of the Tate model, which realizes each of the box graphs.

  8. Box graphs and resolutions I

    Science.gov (United States)

    Braun, Andreas P.; Schäfer-Nameki, Sakura

    2016-04-01

    Box graphs succinctly and comprehensively characterize singular fibers of elliptic fibrations in codimension two and three, as well as flop transitions connecting these, in terms of representation theoretic data. We develop a framework that provides a systematic map between a box graph and a crepant algebraic resolution of the singular elliptic fibration, thus allowing an explicit construction of the fibers from a singular Weierstrass or Tate model. The key tool is what we call a fiber face diagram, which shows the relevant information of a (partial) toric triangulation and allows the inclusion of more general algebraic blowups. We shown that each such diagram defines a sequence of weighted algebraic blowups, thus providing a realization of the fiber defined by the box graph in terms of an explicit resolution. We show this correspondence explicitly for the case of SU (5) by providing a map between box graphs and fiber faces, and thereby a sequence of algebraic resolutions of the Tate model, which realizes each of the box graphs.

  9. Improving short term load forecast accuracy via combining sister forecasts

    OpenAIRE

    Jakub Nowotarski; Bidong Liu; Rafal Weron; Tao Hong

    2015-01-01

    Although combining forecasts is well-known to be an effective approach to improving forecast accuracy, the literature and case studies on combining load forecasts are very limited. In this paper, we investigate the performance of combining so-called sister load forecasts with eight methods: three variants of arithmetic averaging, four regression based and one performance based method. Through comprehensive analysis of two case studies developed from public data (Global Energy Forecasting Comp...

  10. Inflow forecasting at BPA

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McManamon, A. [Bonneville Power Administration, Portland, OR (United States)

    2007-07-01

    The Columbia River Power System operates with consideration for flood control, endangered species, navigation, irrigation, water supply, recreation, other fish and wildlife concerns and power production. The Bonneville Power Association (BPA) located in Portland, Oregon is responsible for 35-40 per cent of the power consumed within the region. This presentation discussed inflow power concerns at BPA. The presentation illustrated elevational relief of projects; annual and daily variability; the hydrologic cycle; national river service weather forecasting service (NRSWFS); components of NRSWFS; and hydrologic forecast locations. Project operations and inventory were included along with a comparison of the 71-year average unregulated flow with regulated flow at the Dalles. Consistency between short-term and long-term forecasts and long-term streamflow forecasts were also illustrated in graphical format. The presentation also discussed the issue of reducing model and parameter uncertainty; reducing initial conditions uncertainty; snow updating; and reducing meteorological uncertainty. tabs., figs.

  11. Statistical evaluation of forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mader, Malenka; Mader, Wolfgang; Gluckman, Bruce J.; Timmer, Jens; Schelter, Björn

    2014-08-01

    Reliable forecasts of extreme but rare events, such as earthquakes, financial crashes, and epileptic seizures, would render interventions and precautions possible. Therefore, forecasting methods have been developed which intend to raise an alarm if an extreme event is about to occur. In order to statistically validate the performance of a prediction system, it must be compared to the performance of a random predictor, which raises alarms independent of the events. Such a random predictor can be obtained by bootstrapping or analytically. We propose an analytic statistical framework which, in contrast to conventional methods, allows for validating independently the sensitivity and specificity of a forecasting method. Moreover, our method accounts for the periods during which an event has to remain absent or occur after a respective forecast.

  12. NYHOPS Forecast Model Results

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — 3D Marine Nowcast/Forecast System for the New York Bight Apex NYHOPS subdomain. Currents, waves, surface meteorology, and water conditions.

  13. Intelligent energy demand forecasting

    CERN Document Server

    Hong, Wei-Chiang

    2013-01-01

    This book offers approaches and methods to calculate optimal electric energy allocation, using evolutionary algorithms and intelligent analytical tools to improve the accuracy of demand forecasting. Focuses on improving the drawbacks of existing algorithms.

  14. NYHOPS Forecast Model Results

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — 3D Marine Nowcast/Forecast System for the New York Bight NYHOPS subdomain. Currents, waves, surface meteorology, and water conditions.

  15. Identifying competencies of boxing coaches

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ioannis Tasiopoulos

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this study was to find out the management skills required by boxing coaches to administrate their clubs. For the purposes of this study a scale was constructed which was answered by 98 boxing coaches. Explanatory factor analysis revealed seven factors: Communication-public relations (5 items, event management (4 items, management techniques (4 items, new technologies (4 items, prevention-safety (2 items, sport (5 items and sports facilities (2 items. The Cronbach of the scale was 0.85. The five competencies that rated by the coaches were: Supervisors of the area of training, maintaining excellent communication with athletes, using new technologies (e-mail, internet, handling disciplinary matters, accidents, complaints and reports on some sporting games and promoted harmony among athletes. We concluded that boxing coaches understand that the competencies required for meeting their obligations, were related to sports, prevention, safety and communications-public relations.

  16. Evaluating House Price Forecasts

    OpenAIRE

    John M. Clapp; Carmelo Giaccotto

    2002-01-01

    House prices, unlike stock prices, appear to be predictable with some degree of accuracy. We use an autoregressive process to model the time series behavior of a city-wide house price index, and then produce one-quarter ahead forecasts for individual properties. Better real estate decisions require forecasting models with desirable properties for prediction errors (PEs). We propose that managers use a battery of tests to compare PEs; in particular, non-parametric smoothing of the empirical di...

  17. Forecasting the Brazilian real and the Mexican peso: Asymmetric loss, forecast rationality, and forecaster herding

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stadtmann, Georg; Fritsche, Ulrich; Pierdzioch, Christian;

    2015-01-01

    Using forecasts of exchange rates of the Brazilian real and the Mexican peso against the US dollar, we analyze the symmetry of the loss function of exchange-rate forecasters and the rationality of their forecasts. Symmetry of the loss function can be rejected for some forecasters but not all. Eve...... when allowing for asymmetric loss functions, the predictions of some forecasters do not fit the traditional definition of rational forecasts. We interpret our results in terms of recent research on forecaster (anti-)herding....

  18. Advances in Business and Management Forecasting

    CERN Document Server

    Lawrence, Kenneth D

    2011-01-01

    The topics within Advances in Business and Management Forecasting will normally include sales and marketing, forecasting, new product forecasting, judgmentally-based forecasting, the application of surveys to forecasting, forecasting for strategic business decisions, improvements in forecasting accuracy, and sales response models.

  19. A Box Full of Kisses

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    崔增印

    2008-01-01

    The story goes that some time ago,a man pun- ished his 3-year-old daughter for wasting a roll of gold wrapping paper.Money was tight and he became infuriated when the child tried to decorate a box to put under the Christmas tree.Nevertheless,the little girl brought the gift to

  20. Reference: AT1BOX [PLACE

    Lifescience Database Archive (English)

    Full Text Available AT1BOX Ueda T, Pichersky E, Malik VS, Cashmore AR The level of expression of the to...mato rbcs-3A gene is modulated by a far-upstream promoter element in a developmentary regulated manner. Plant Cell 1:217-227 (1989) PubMed: 2535544; GenBank: S44160; ...

  1. Back office to box office

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Haigh, Matthew

    sees a mounting unsecured debt where its members see practical value. Between the two, a steward who may not profit from its office delegates it to back-office agents whose fiduciary management is engendered by box office-sized bonuses. Standard theorisation has foundered. The architecture...

  2. On the Dirichlet's Box Principle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poon, Kin-Keung; Shiu, Wai-Chee

    2008-01-01

    In this note, we will focus on several applications on the Dirichlet's box principle in Discrete Mathematics lesson and number theory lesson. In addition, the main result is an innovative game on a triangular board developed by the authors. The game has been used in teaching and learning mathematics in Discrete Mathematics and some high schools in…

  3. Operational river discharge forecasting in poorly gauged basins: the Kavango River Basin case study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bauer-Gottwein, Peter; Jensen, Iris Hedegaard; Guzinski, R.;

    2014-01-01

    Operational probabilistic forecasts of river discharge are essential for effective water resources management. Many studies have addressed this topic using different approaches ranging from purely statistical black-box approaches to physically-based and distributed modelling schemes employing data...... assimilation techniques. However, few studies have attempted to develop operational probabilistic forecasting approaches for large and poorly gauged river basins. This study is funded by the European Space Agency under the TIGER-NET project. The objective of TIGER-NET is to develop open-source software tools....... The forecasting system delivers competitive forecasts for the Kavango River, which are reliable and sharp. Results indicate that the value of the forecasts is greatest for intermediate lead times between 4 and 7 days....

  4. Stress Analysis of Rectangular Boxes Using Fem

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D.G. Lokhande

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Extensive experimental & theoretical contributions have been made to the study of open box structures, but few references dealing with closed boxes have been found. When a rectangular box structure is subjected to certain pressure, stress analysis of rectangular box is necessary to avoid the failure during working condition. In this work, it is proposed to evaluate the stresses in rectangular box by changing L/B ratios 1, 1.5, 2 for different thicknes of 2.5, 5, 7.5 mm & varying fillet radius, using finite element method.To validate finite element stresses, it is necessary to compare these stresses with analytical approach. From the FE analysis of rectangular box, it is seen that cubical box having the lesser stresses & better for stress distribution due to symmetry.The stiffners further reduces the stresses in boxes

  5. Operational river discharge forecasting in poorly gauged basins: the Kavango River Basin case study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Bauer-Gottwein

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Operational probabilistic forecasts of river discharge are essential for effective water resources management. Many studies have addressed this topic using different approaches ranging from purely statistical black-box approaches to physically-based and distributed modelling schemes employing data assimilation techniques. However, few studies have attempted to develop operational probabilistic forecasting approaches for large and poorly gauged river basins. This study is funded by the European Space Agency under the TIGER-NET project. The objective of TIGER-NET is to develop open-source software tools to support integrated water resources management in Africa and to facilitate the use of satellite earth observation data in water management. We present an operational probabilistic forecasting approach which uses public-domain climate forcing data and a hydrologic–hydrodynamic model which is entirely based on open-source software. Data assimilation techniques are used to inform the forecasts with the latest available observations. Forecasts are produced in real time for lead times of 0 to 7 days. The operational probabilistic forecasts are evaluated using a selection of performance statistics and indicators. The forecasting system delivers competitive forecasts for the Kavango River, which are reliable and sharp. Results indicate that the value of the forecasts is greatest for intermediate lead times between 4 and 7 days.

  6. Forecasting digital microcircuit obsolescence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balwally, Nandakumar M.

    1991-03-01

    This report documents a procedure for forecasting digital microcircuit obsolescence at the Defense Electronics Supply Center, Dayton, OH. Obsolescence is caused by rapid advancement in digital technology and decrease in commercial demand while military demand still continues. In logistics parlance, parts obsolescence is known as a diminishing manufacturing source (DMS) problem. Continued supply of an obsolete DMS item is assured via substitution, alternate sourcing or a one time buy equal to the lifetime requirements of the item. Emulation is a recent alternative which explores the possibility of replacing obsolete digital microcircuits with state of the art devices which can be manufactured and supplied on demand. The report recommends use of a statistical model which forecasts DMS items from a population of presently non-DMS items belonging to obsolete digital microcircuit technologies. The items forecast by the model should be evaluated for their emulation potential.

  7. Probability Forecast of Regional Landslide Based on Numerical Weather Forecast

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    GAO Kechang; WEI Fangqiang; CUI Peng; HU Kaiheng; XU Jing; ZHANG Guoping; BI Baogui

    2006-01-01

    The regional forecast of landslide is one of the key points of hazard mitigation. It is also a hot and difficult point in research field. To solve this problem has become urgent task along with Chinese economy fast development. This paper analyzes the principle of regional landslide forecast and the factors for forecasting. The method of a combination of Information Value Model and Extension Model has been put forward to be as the forecast model. Using new result of Numerical Weather Forecast Research and that combination model, we discuss the implementation feasibility of regional landslide forecast. Finally, with the help of Geographic Information System, an operation system for southwest of China landslide forecast has been developed. It can carry out regional landslide forecast daily and has been pilot run in NMC. Since this is the first time linking theoretical research with meteorological service, further works are needed to enhance it.

  8. La compañía del asiento y la guerra de la oreja de Jenkins: sus causas económicas y algunos aspectos contables relacionados

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rafael Donoso Anes

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available Por el tratado de Utrecht de 1713 el Asiento de esclavos pasaría a manos de Inglaterra, cuya soberana concedería su desarrollo práctico a la Compañía del Mar del Sur, la cual, con muchos altibajos, lo conservaría hasta la denominada Guerra de la Oreja de Jenkins o guerra del Asiento que estalló en 1739, enfrentando a la corona española y británica durante un período de casi diez años, hasta la paz de Aquisgrán de 1748 y que desembocaría, en 1750, en un tratado particular con Inglaterra que llevaría a la culminación definitiva del Asiento. En relación con este tema hay un aspecto, apenas reconocido hasta ahora en otros trabajos de investigación históricos y que se refiere al importante papel que desempeñó en el desenvolvimiento del Asiento la contabilidad, o mejor las cuentas que, de forma reiterada, se solicitaban a la Compañía del Mar de Sur por parte de la Corona española, en cuyo negocio participaba con una cuarta parte y que, por el articulado del Asiento, estaba la Compañía obligada a presentar periódicamente. Este conflicto de carácter contable se unió a otros muchos que, finalmente, desembocaron, como tendremos ocasión de analizar, en la denominada “Guerra de la Oreja de Jenkins” en 1739, conflicto que ha sido analizado por algunos historiadores, entre los que destacamos a Béthencourt Massieu (1989 y 1998 por ser de los pocos que reconocen que, a las causas políticas y diplomáticas que promovieron los conflictos entre las dos naciones, hay que añadir “el de las frecuentes peticiones de cuentas por Felipe V y el pago de sus beneficios conforme a los plazos señalados por los tratados” (1998, p. 184.En este trabajo de investigación analizamos algunas de las causas que motivaron el conflicto entre ambas naciones, poniendo un énfasis especial en los aspectos económicos y contables derivados de las relaciones comerciales e intereses económicos que la monarquía española tenía en el Asiento de

  9. Main: BOX2PVCHS15 [PLACE

    Lifescience Database Archive (English)

    Full Text Available BOX2PVCHS15 S000209 11-May-2006 (last modified) kehi Box 2 of bean (P.v.) chs15 pro...moter; SBF-1 binding site; For a compilation of related GT elements and factors, see Villain et al. (1996); Box 2; chs; chs1

  10. Main: BOX3PVCHS15 [PLACE

    Lifescience Database Archive (English)

    Full Text Available BOX3PVCHS15 S000210 11-May-2006 (last modified) kehi Box 3 of bean (P.v.) chs15 pro...moter; SBF-1 binding site; For a compilation of related GT elements and factors, see Villain et al. (1996); Box 3; chs; chs1

  11. Main: BOX2PSGS2 [PLACE

    Lifescience Database Archive (English)

    Full Text Available BOX2PSGS2 S000204 17-May-1998 (last modified) kehi Box 2 in glutamine synthetase (GS...2) gene in pea (P.s.); Repeated in tandem with a partial palindrome located between the repeats; Located at ca. -300 of pea GS...2; Box 2; glutamine synthetase; GS2; pea (Pisum sativum); TCTAAGCAAAG ...

  12. The Heuristic Interpretation of Box Plots

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lem, Stephanie; Onghena, Patrick; Verschaffel, Lieven; Van Dooren, Wim

    2013-01-01

    Box plots are frequently used, but are often misinterpreted by students. Especially the area of the box in box plots is often misinterpreted as representing number or proportion of observations, while it actually represents their density. In a first study, reaction time evidence was used to test whether heuristic reasoning underlies this…

  13. Airport Capacity Forecast : Short-term forecasting of runway capacity

    OpenAIRE

    Hesselink, Henk; Nibourg, Joyce; D'Estampes, Ludovic; Lezaud, Pascal

    2014-01-01

    International audience Airports expect major benefits from increasing predictability of the operation. This paper will investigate the use of forecast information to determine forecast airport capacity, which will allow airport stakeholders to optimize the use of their resources. The focus will be on forecasting runway capacity, at most airports the major factor for the overall airport capacity. The possibility to model forecast runway capacity, based on probabilistic inputs, will be inves...

  14. Forecast of auroral activity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A new technique is developed to predict auroral activity based on a sample of over 9000 auroral sites identified in global auroral images obtained by an ultraviolet imager on the NASA Polar satellite during a 6-month period. Four attributes of auroral activity sites are utilized in forecasting, namely, the area, the power, and the rates of change in area and power. This new technique is quite accurate, as indicated by the high true skill scores for forecasting three different levels of auroral dissipation during the activity lifetime. The corresponding advanced warning time ranges from 22 to 79 min from low to high dissipation levels

  15. Forecasting Housing Approvals in Australia: Do Forecasters Herd?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stadtmann, Georg; Pierdzioch; Rülke

    2012-01-01

    Price trends in housing markets may reflect herding of market participants. A natural question is whether such herding, to the extent that it occurred, reflects herding in forecasts of professional forecasters. Using more than 6,000 forecasts of housing approvals for Australia, we did not find...

  16. Illumination box and camera system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haas, Jeffrey S.; Kelly, Fredrick R.; Bushman, John F.; Wiefel, Michael H.; Jensen, Wayne A.; Klunder, Gregory L.

    2002-01-01

    A hand portable, field-deployable thin-layer chromatography (TLC) unit and a hand portable, battery-operated unit for development, illumination, and data acquisition of the TLC plates contain many miniaturized features that permit a large number of samples to be processed efficiently. The TLC unit includes a solvent tank, a holder for TLC plates, and a variety of tool chambers for storing TLC plates, solvent, and pipettes. After processing in the TLC unit, a TLC plate is positioned in a collapsible illumination box, where the box and a CCD camera are optically aligned for optimal pixel resolution of the CCD images of the TLC plate. The TLC system includes an improved development chamber for chemical development of TLC plates that prevents solvent overflow.

  17. Das k-Box-Produkt

    OpenAIRE

    Elser, Stefan

    2011-01-01

    Ziel dieser Doktorarbeit ist es, bekannte und oft verwendete Eigenschaften des Tychonow-Produkts in analoger Form für das k-Box-Produkt zu beweisen, was bisher noch nicht geschehen ist, und die Verbindung zwischen der Infinitären Kombinatorik und der Topologie zu vertiefen. In der Infinitären Kombinatorik, ein Zweig der modernen Mengenlehre, bedient man sich gerne topologischer Begriffe, um einerseits Ergebnisse zu verdeutlichen und um andererseits den sehr abstrakten kombinatorischen Be...

  18. Global Energy Forecasting Competition 2012

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hong, Tao; Pinson, Pierre; Fan, Shu

    2014-01-01

    The Global Energy Forecasting Competition (GEFCom2012) attracted hundreds of participants worldwide, who contributed many novel ideas to the energy forecasting field. This paper introduces both tracks of GEFCom2012, hierarchical load forecasting and wind power forecasting, with details on the asp......The Global Energy Forecasting Competition (GEFCom2012) attracted hundreds of participants worldwide, who contributed many novel ideas to the energy forecasting field. This paper introduces both tracks of GEFCom2012, hierarchical load forecasting and wind power forecasting, with details...... on the aspects of the problem, the data, and a summary of the methods used by selected top entries. We also discuss the lessons learned from this competition from the organizers’ perspective. The complete data set, including the solution data, is published along with this paper, in an effort to establish...

  19. Challenges of operational river forecasting

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pagano, T.C.; Wood, A.W.; Ramos, M.H.; Cloke, H.L.; Pappenbreger, F.; Verkade, J.S.; et al.

    2014-01-01

    Skillful and timely streamflow forecasts are critically important to water managers and emergency protection services. To provide these forecasts, hydrologists must predict the behavior of complex coupled human–natural systems using incomplete and uncertain information and imperfect models. Moreover

  20. Revenue Forecasts as Performance Targets

    OpenAIRE

    Stephan Danninger

    2005-01-01

    Budget revenue forecasts should be best estimates of expected receipts. Often they are not. This paper analyzes the rationale for overstated revenue forecasts and derives conditions for intentional biases. A theoretical model demonstrates that overstated revenue forecasts can be the result of the government's attempt to boost unobserved revenue collection effort. If positive forecast errors are costly and undermine public credibility of budget expenditure plans, the reverse outcome is possibl...

  1. Forecasting inflation in Asian economies

    OpenAIRE

    Liew, Freddy

    2012-01-01

    This paper surveys the recent literature on inflation forecasting and conducts an extensive empirical analysis on forecasting inflation in Singapore, Japan, South Korea and Hong Kong paying particular attention to whether the inflation-markup theory can help to forecast inflation. We first review the relative performance of different predictors in forecasting h-quarter ahead inflation using single equations. These models include the autoregressive model and bivariate Philips curve models. The...

  2. Main: BOX1PSGS2 [PLACE

    Lifescience Database Archive (English)

    Full Text Available BOX1PSGS2 S000222 19-August-2004 (last modified) kehi Box 1 element in pea (P.s.) glutamine synthetase (GS...2) gene; An element in a 33-bp AT-rich sequence (box 1) of the 5' end of a GS2 promot...er; Located at -837 to -827 of pea GS2; Multimer of box 1 element was used to isolate a cDNA encoding an AT-...rich DNA binding protein (ATBP-1) (Tjaden & Coruzzi, 1994); Box 1; glutamine synthetase; GS2; ATBp; ATBP-1; pea (Pisum sativum) ATAGAAATCAA ...

  3. Forecasters' Objectives and Strategies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Marinovic, Iván; Ottaviani, Marco; Sørensen, Peter Norman

    2013-01-01

    This chapter develops a unified modeling framework for analyzing the strategic behavior of forecasters. The theoretical model encompasses reputational objectives, competition for the best accuracy, and bias. Also drawing from the extensive lit- erature on analysts, we review the empirical evidence...

  4. Reference class forecasting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Flyvbjerg, Bent

    Underbudgettering og budgetoverskridelser forekommer i et flertal af større bygge- og anlægsprojekter. Problemet skyldes optimisme og/eller strategisk misinformation i budgetteringsprocessen. Reference class forecasting (RCF) er en prognosemetode, som er udviklet for at reducere eller eliminere...

  5. Forecasting Inflation in Indonesia

    OpenAIRE

    Uma Ramakrishnan; Athanasios Vamvakidis

    2002-01-01

    A reliable inflation-forecasting model is central for a sound monetary policy framework. In this paper, we study the domestic and international transmission effects on inflation in Indonesia and analyze the possible leading indicators of inflation. We identify the exchange rate, foreign inflation, and monetary growth as the main variables with a significant predictive power for inflation in Indonesia.

  6. Forecasting Credit Hours.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bivin, David; Rooney, Patrick Michael

    1999-01-01

    This study used Tobit analysis to estimate retention probabilities and credit hours at two universities. Tobit was judged as appropriate for this problem because it recognizes the lower bound of zero on credit hours and incorporates this bound into parameter estimates and forecasts. Models are estimated for credit hours in a single year and…

  7. FORECASTING CROATIAN STOCK MARKET INDEX: CROBEX

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zoran Ivanovic

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Forecasting stock returns is considered one of the hardest tasks for every potential investor. This paper attempts to predict the movement of Croatian stock market index Crobex on Zagreb Stock Exchange. Main aim of this paper was to empirically examine the best univariate Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model for forecasting. This research examined ARIMA (p;d;q model on weekly closed prices of Crobex from 01/01/2011 to 01/01/2013. First it was necessary to meet the stationary condition. While checking the conditions of stationarity, data series were observed by ACF, PACF plots and by Ljung– Box Q statistic and Augmented Dickey–Fuller test statistic. After differencing, statistic showed that the data is stationary and the next step was to find the best ARIMA model. The most important criteria that were used are: R-squared, Adjusted R-squared, Akaike information criterion, Schwarz criterion and Hannan–Quinn information criterion. After checking the exceptionally large number of models it was found the model that suits best, according to the criteria.

  8. Projected Applications of a "Weather in a Box" Computing System at the NASA Short-Term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jedlovec, Gary J.; Molthan, Andrew; Zavodsky, Bradley T.; Case, Jonathan L.; LaFontaine, Frank J.; Srikishen, Jayanthi

    2010-01-01

    The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition Center (SPoRT)'s new "Weather in a Box" resources will provide weather research and forecast modeling capabilities for real-time application. Model output will provide additional forecast guidance and research into the impacts of new NASA satellite data sets and software capabilities. By combining several research tools and satellite products, SPoRT can generate model guidance that is strongly influenced by unique NASA contributions.

  9. Improving Forecasting Accuracy in the Case of Intermittent Demand Forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daisuke Takeyasu

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available In making forecasting, there are many kinds of data. Stationary time series data are relatively easy to make forecasting but random data are very difficult in its execution for forecasting. Intermittent data are often seen in industries. But it is rather difficult to make forecasting in general. In recent years, the needs for intermittent demand forecasting are increasing because of the constraints of strict Supply Chain Management. How to improve the forecasting accuracy is an important issue. There are many researches made on this. But there are rooms for improvement. In this paper, a new method for cumulative forecasting method is proposed. The data is cumulated and to this cumulated time series, the following method is applied to improve the forecasting accuracy. Trend removing by the combination of linear and 2nd order non-linear function and 3rd order non-linear function is executed to the production data of X-ray image intensifier tube device and Diagnostic X-ray image processing apparatus. The forecasting result is compared with those of the non-cumulative forecasting method. The new method shows that it is useful for the forecasting of intermittent demand data. The effectiveness of this method should be examined in various cases.

  10. Load forecasting for supermarket refrigeration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bacher, Peder; Madsen, Henrik; Aalborg Nielsen, Henrik

    This report presents a study of models for forecasting the load for supermarket refrigeration. The data used for building the forecasting models consists of load measurements, local climate measurements and weather forecasts. The load measurements are from a supermarket located in a village...... in Denmark. The load for refrigeration is the sum of all cabinets in the supermarket, both low and medium temperature cabinets, and spans a period of one year. As input to the forecasting models the ambient temperature observed near the supermarket together with weather forecasts are used. Every hour...

  11. Forecasting potential crises

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Recently, the Trend Analysis Program (TAP) of the American Council of Life Insurance commissioned the Futures Group of Glastonbury, Connecticut, to examine the potential for large-scale catastrophic events in the near future. TAP was specifically concerned with five potential crises: the warming of the earth's atmosphere, the water shortage, the collapse of the physical infrastructure, the global financial crisis, and the threat of nuclear war. We are often unprepared to take action; in these cases, we lose an advantage we might have otherwise had. This is the whole idea behind forecasting: to foresee possibilities and to project how we can respond. If we are able to create forecasts against which we can test policy options and choices, we may have the luxury of adopting policies ahead of events. Rather than simply fighting fires, we have the option of creating a future more to our choosing. Short descriptions of these five potential crises and, in some cases, possible solutions are presented

  12. Forecasting Infectious Disease Outbreaks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shaman, J. L.

    2015-12-01

    Dynamic models of infectious disease systems abound and are used to study the epidemiological characteristics of disease outbreaks, the ecological mechanisms affecting transmission, and the suitability of various control and intervention strategies. The dynamics of disease transmission are non-linear and consequently difficult to forecast. Here, we describe combined model-inference frameworks developed for the prediction of infectious diseases. We show that accurate and reliable predictions of seasonal influenza outbreaks can be made using a mathematical model representing population-level influenza transmission dynamics that has been recursively optimized using ensemble data assimilation techniques and real-time estimates of influenza incidence. Operational real-time forecasts of influenza and other infectious diseases have been and are currently being generated.

  13. Forecasting carbon dioxide emissions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Xiaobing; Du, Ding

    2015-09-01

    This study extends the literature on forecasting carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by applying the reduced-form econometrics approach of Schmalensee et al. (1998) to a more recent sample period, the post-1997 period. Using the post-1997 period is motivated by the observation that the strengthening pace of global climate policy may have been accelerated since 1997. Based on our parameter estimates, we project 25% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2050 according to an economic and population growth scenario that is more consistent with recent global trends. Our forecasts are conservative due to that we do not have sufficient data to fully take into account recent developments in the global economy.

  14. Foresight and Forecasts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kilbourn, Kyle; Bay, Marie Brøndum

    In predicting areas of growth, public innovation projects may rely on optimistic visions of technology still in development as a way of ensuring novelty for funding. This paper explores what happens when forecasts of robotic technology meets the practice of sterile supply in a preliminary stage......, the most sustainable innovation stems from the dialogical interaction between practitioner foresight and societal forecasting, requiring continued development of participatory design as it moves into new contexts....... of an ongoing project. We examine the nature of participation in design on three levels: in the sterilization ward, this particular project and society in general. From our case, we suggest that while innovation projects proceeding from a certain technological perspective can succeed at building excitement...

  15. Forecasting in marketing

    OpenAIRE

    Franses, Philip Hans

    2004-01-01

    textabstractWith the advent of advanced data collection techniques, there is an increased interest in using econometric models to support decisions in marketing. Due to the sometimes specific nature of variables in marketing, the discipline uses econometric models that are rarely, if ever, used elsewhere. This chapter deals with techniques to derive forecasts from these models. Due to the intrinsic non-linear nature of these models, these techniques draw heavliy on simulation techniques.

  16. Forecasting oilfield economic performance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper presents a general method for forecasting oilfield economic performance that integrates cost data with operational, reservoir, and financial information. Practices are developed for determining economic limits for an oil field and its components. The economic limits of marginal wells and the role of underground competition receive special attention. Also examined is the influence of oil prices on operating costs. Examples illustrate application of these concepts. Categorization of costs for historical tracking and projections is recommended

  17. Statistical methods for forecasting

    CERN Document Server

    Abraham, Bovas

    2009-01-01

    The Wiley-Interscience Paperback Series consists of selected books that have been made more accessible to consumers in an effort to increase global appeal and general circulation. With these new unabridged softcover volumes, Wiley hopes to extend the lives of these works by making them available to future generations of statisticians, mathematicians, and scientists."This book, it must be said, lives up to the words on its advertising cover: ''Bridging the gap between introductory, descriptive approaches and highly advanced theoretical treatises, it provides a practical, intermediate level discussion of a variety of forecasting tools, and explains how they relate to one another, both in theory and practice.'' It does just that!"-Journal of the Royal Statistical Society"A well-written work that deals with statistical methods and models that can be used to produce short-term forecasts, this book has wide-ranging applications. It could be used in the context of a study of regression, forecasting, and time series ...

  18. Ionization box type radiation detector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    An ionization box for monitoring radiation rays, a first amplification circuit of a multi-stage amplification circuit employing a MOS type FET as an initial stage amplification device, a second amplification circuit employing a junction type FET as an initial stage amplification device, a first change-over switch for switching ionization current depending on input signals, a second change-over switch for switching output signals, and a signal level discrimination circuit are constituted integrally. When radiation dose rate is low, the ionization current is inputted to the first amplification circuit and outputted as a radiation ray monitor signal and, when the radiation dose rate is increased to higher than a predetermined value, the ionization current is inputted to the second amplification circuit and outputted as a radiation ray monitor signal. That is, monitoring accuracy is high when the ionization current is low since the MOS type FET of high input impedance is used. If the ionization current is higher than a predetermined value, there is no worry that the detection becomes impossible since the junction type FET having less worry of causing characteristic change due to high radiation dose rate is used. Accordingly, ionization box type monitor at a high monitoring reliability can be obtained. (N.H.)

  19. The Lithium Vapor Box Divertor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldston, Robert; Hakim, Ammar; Hammett, Gregory; Jaworski, Michael; Myers, Rachel; Schwartz, Jacob

    2015-11-01

    Projections of scrape-off layer width to a demonstration power plant suggest an immense parallel heat flux, of order 12 GW/m2, which will necessitate nearly fully detached operation. Building on earlier work by Nagayama et al. and by Ono et al., we propose to use a series of differentially pumped boxes filled with lithium vapor to isolate the buffering vapor from the main plasma chamber, allowing stable detachment. This powerful differential pumping is only available for condensable vapors, not conventional gases. We demonstrate the properties of such a system through conservation laws for vapor mass and enthalpy, and then include plasma entrainment and ultimately an estimate of radiated power. We find that full detachment should be achievable with little leakage of lithium to the main plasma chamber. We also present progress towards solving the Navier-Stokes equation numerically for the chain of vapor boxes, including self-consistent wall boundary conditions and fully-developed shocks, as well as concepts for an initial experimental demonstration-of-concept. This work supported by DOE Contract No. DE-AC02-09CH11466.

  20. F-box proteins in flowering plants

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2002-01-01

    In eukaryotes, the ubiquitin-mediated protein degradation pathway has been shown to control several key biological processes such as cell division, development, metabolism and immune response. F-box proteins, as a part of SCF (Skp1-Cullin (or Cdc53)-F-box) complex, functioned by interacting with substrate proteins, leading to their subsequent degradation by the 26S proteasome. To date, several F-box proteins identified in Arabidopsis and Antirrhinum have been shown to play important roles in auxin signal transduction, floral organ formation, flowering and leaf senescence. Arabidopsis genome sequence analysis revealed that it encodes over 1000 predicted F-box proteins accounting for about 5% of total predicted proteins. These results indicate that the ubiquitin-mediated protein degradation involving the F-box proteins is an important mechanism controlling plant gene expression. Here, we review the known F-box proteins and their functionsin flowering plants.

  1. Understanding Recommender Dynamics driving Box Office Revenues

    CERN Document Server

    Yeung, C H; Jin, C -H

    2010-01-01

    We introduce a simple model to investigate the underlying dynamics driving movie box office. Without an explicit reliance on time, the box office of movies evolves naturally by movie-movie competition through reviews listed on a centralized recommender system. A simple mean-field approximation is employed which assumes an average interaction between the competing movies, and describes the interesting box office dynamics. Box office hits are found for movies with quality beyond a critical value, leading to booms in gross box office. Such critical value is dependent on the reviewing behaviors, intention of movie goers for new movies, and the quality of the peer competing movies. Finally we compare our analytical results with simulations and real system and obtain qualitative agreements, suggesting the present model in describing the fundamental dynamics of box office.

  2. Convective Weather Forecast Quality Metrics for Air Traffic Management Decision-Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chatterji, Gano B.; Gyarfas, Brett; Chan, William N.; Meyn, Larry A.

    2006-01-01

    Since numerical weather prediction models are unable to accurately forecast the severity and the location of the storm cells several hours into the future when compared with observation data, there has been a growing interest in probabilistic description of convective weather. The classical approach for generating uncertainty bounds consists of integrating the state equations and covariance propagation equations forward in time. This step is readily recognized as the process update step of the Kalman Filter algorithm. The second well known method, known as the Monte Carlo method, consists of generating output samples by driving the forecast algorithm with input samples selected from distributions. The statistical properties of the distributions of the output samples are then used for defining the uncertainty bounds of the output variables. This method is computationally expensive for a complex model compared to the covariance propagation method. The main advantage of the Monte Carlo method is that a complex non-linear model can be easily handled. Recently, a few different methods for probabilistic forecasting have appeared in the literature. A method for computing probability of convection in a region using forecast data is described in Ref. 5. Probability at a grid location is computed as the fraction of grid points, within a box of specified dimensions around the grid location, with forecast convection precipitation exceeding a specified threshold. The main limitation of this method is that the results are dependent on the chosen dimensions of the box. The examples presented Ref. 5 show that this process is equivalent to low-pass filtering of the forecast data with a finite support spatial filter. References 6 and 7 describe the technique for computing percentage coverage within a 92 x 92 square-kilometer box and assigning the value to the center 4 x 4 square-kilometer box. This technique is same as that described in Ref. 5. Characterizing the forecast, following

  3. Evolving forecasting classifications and applications in health forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Soyiri IN

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Ireneous N Soyiri1,2, Daniel D Reidpath11Global Public Health, JCSMHS, MONASH University, Selangor, Malaysia; 2School of Public Health, University of Ghana, Legon, Accra, GhanaAbstract: Health forecasting forewarns the health community about future health situations and disease episodes so that health systems can better allocate resources and manage demand. The tools used for developing and measuring the accuracy and validity of health forecasts commonly are not defined although they are usually adapted forms of statistical procedures. This review identifies previous typologies used in classifying the forecasting methods commonly used in forecasting health conditions or situations. It then discusses the strengths and weaknesses of these methods and presents the choices available for measuring the accuracy of health-forecasting models, including a note on the discrepancies in the modes of validation.Keywords: health forecast, health data, electronic health records, accuracy, cross validation, method, strengths and limitations

  4. Main: BOX1PVCHS15 [PLACE

    Lifescience Database Archive (English)

    Full Text Available BOX1PVCHS15 S000208 11-May-2006 (last modified) kehi Box 1 of bean (P.v.) chs15 pro...moter; one of SBF-1 binding sites in chs15 promoter; Located at -318 to -305; Involved in organ-specific exp...e Villain et al. (1996); Box 1; chs; chs15; CHS; SBF-1; silencer; organ-specific; Gt; GT-1; GT; bean (Phaseolus vulgaris) TAAAAGTTAAAAAC ...

  5. Metod of black box and their us

    OpenAIRE

    Novotný, Martin

    2013-01-01

    This thesis on a topic "black-box method and its use" deals with the description of the method of solving problematic tasks as a black box and its use in teaching. Using the theory of systems and cybernetics disciplines, especially cybernetic-pedagogy attempts to describe this method so that it is as efficient as possible and to maximize the benefits for students. Besides, the implementation of selected black box that will be suitable and used for teaching subjects electrotechnics, automatiza...

  6. Analysing Uk Real Estate Market Forecast Disagreement

    OpenAIRE

    McAllister, Patrick; G. Newell; Matysiak, George

    2005-01-01

    Given the significance of forecasting in real estate investment decisions, this paper investigates forecast uncertainty and disagreement in real estate market forecasts. Using the Investment Property Forum (IPF) quarterly survey amongst UK independent real estate forecasters, these real estate forecasts are compared with actual real estate performance to assess a number of real estate forecasting issues in the UK over 1999-2004, including real estate forecast error, bias and consensus. The r...

  7. Interchangeable breech lock for glove boxes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lemonds, David Preston

    2015-11-24

    A breech lock for a glove box is provided that may be used to transfer one or more items into the glove box. The breech lock can be interchangeably installed in place of a plug, glove, or other device in a port or opening of a glove box. Features are provided to aid the removal of items from the breech lock by a gloved operator. The breech lock can be reused or, if needed, can be replaced with a plug, glove, or other device at the port or opening of the glove box.

  8. Forecasts: uncertain, inaccurate and biased?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nicolaisen, Morten Skou; Ambrasaite, Inga; Salling, Kim Bang

    2012-01-01

    construction costs, which account for the majority of total project costs. Second are the forecasts of travel time savings, which account for the majority of total project benefits. The latter of these is, inter alia, determined by forecasts of travel demand, which we shall use as a proxy for the forecasting......Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA) is the dominating methodology for appraisal of transport infrastructure projects across the globe. In order to adequately assess the costs and benefits of such projects two types of forecasts are crucial to the validity of the appraisal. First are the forecasts of...... accuracy of project benefits. This paper presents results from an on-going research project on uncertainties in transport project evaluation (UNITE) that find forecasts of demand to be not only uncertain, but at times also highly inaccurate and often displaying a concerning degree of bias. Demand for road...

  9. Operational hydrological forecasting in Bavaria. Part I: Forecast uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ehret, U.; Vogelbacher, A.; Moritz, K.; Laurent, S.; Meyer, I.; Haag, I.

    2009-04-01

    In Bavaria, operational flood forecasting has been established since the disastrous flood of 1999. Nowadays, forecasts based on rainfall information from about 700 raingauges and 600 rivergauges are calculated and issued for nearly 100 rivergauges. With the added experience of the 2002 and 2005 floods, awareness grew that the standard deterministic forecast, neglecting the uncertainty associated with each forecast is misleading, creating a false feeling of unambiguousness. As a consequence, a system to identify, quantify and communicate the sources and magnitude of forecast uncertainty has been developed, which will be presented in part I of this study. In this system, the use of ensemble meteorological forecasts plays a key role which will be presented in part II. Developing the system, several constraints stemming from the range of hydrological regimes and operational requirements had to be met: Firstly, operational time constraints obviate the variation of all components of the modeling chain as would be done in a full Monte Carlo simulation. Therefore, an approach was chosen where only the most relevant sources of uncertainty were dynamically considered while the others were jointly accounted for by static error distributions from offline analysis. Secondly, the dominant sources of uncertainty vary over the wide range of forecasted catchments: In alpine headwater catchments, typically of a few hundred square kilometers in size, rainfall forecast uncertainty is the key factor for forecast uncertainty, with a magnitude dynamically changing with the prevailing predictability of the atmosphere. In lowland catchments encompassing several thousands of square kilometers, forecast uncertainty in the desired range (usually up to two days) is mainly dependent on upstream gauge observation quality, routing and unpredictable human impact such as reservoir operation. The determination of forecast uncertainty comprised the following steps: a) From comparison of gauge

  10. Can Econometrics Improve Economic Forecasting?

    OpenAIRE

    David F. Hendry; Michael P. Clements

    1994-01-01

    After reviewing the history of analyses of economic forecasting, the role of econometrics in improving economic forecasting is considered, building on CLEMENTS and HENDRY (1994a). The basis of the analysis is a world where model selection is difficult, no model coincides with the economic mechanism, and that mechanism is both non-stationary and evolves over time. On the constructive side, econometric analysis suggests ways of reducing each of the resulting five sources of forecast uncertainty...

  11. Broken links and black boxes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sindbæk, Søren Michael

    2013-01-01

    Long-distance communication has emerged as a particular focus for archaeological exploration using network theory, analysis, and modelling. Initial attempts to adapt methods from social network analysis to archaeological data have, however, struggled to produce decisive results. This paper argues...... that the archaeological study of communication networks in the past calls for radically different analytical methods from those employed by most other forms of social network analysis. The fragmentary archaeological evidence presents researchers with the task of reconstructing the broken links of a ruined network from...... observable distributions and patterns of association in the archaeological record. In formal terms this is not a problem of network analysis, but network synthesis: the classic problem of cracking codes or reconstructing black-box circuits....

  12. Model Equations: "Black Box" Reconstruction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bezruchko, Boris P.; Smirnov, Dmitry A.

    Black box reconstruction is both the most difficult and the most tempting modelling problem when any prior information about an appropriate model structure is lacking. An intriguing thing is that a model capable of reproducing an observed behaviour or predicting further evolution should be obtained only from an observed time series, i.e. "from nothing" at first sight. Chances for a success are not large. Even more so, a "good" model would become a valuable tool to characterise an object and understand its dynamics. Lack of prior information causes one to utilise universal model structures, e.g. artificial neural networks, radial basis functions and algebraic polynomials are included in the right-hand sides of dynamical model equations. Such models are often multi-dimensional and involve quite many free parameters.

  13. VORONOI DIAGRAMS WITHOUT BOUNDING BOXES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. T. K. Sang

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available We present a technique for presenting geographic data in Voronoi diagrams without having to specify a bounding box. The method restricts Voronoi cells to points within a user-defined distance of the data points. The mathematical foundation of the approach is presented as well. The cell clipping method is particularly useful for presenting geographic data that is spread in an irregular way over a map, as for example the Dutch dialect data displayed in Figure 2. The automatic generation of reasonable cell boundaries also makes redundant a frequently used solution to this problem that requires data owners to specify region boundaries, as in Goebl (2010 and Nerbonne et al (2011.

  14. WIMAX TRAFFIC MODEL BASED ON TIME SERIES FOR FORECAST FUTURE VALUES OF TRAFFIC

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cesar Augusto Hernández Suarez

    2009-03-01

    Full Text Available El objetivo de esta investigación es demostrar que las series de tiempo son una excelente herramienta para el modelamiento de tráfico de datos en redes Wimax. Para lograr este objetivo se utilizó la metodología de Box-Jenkins, la cual se describe en este artículo. El modelamiento de tráfico Wimax a través de modelos correlacionados como las series de tiempo permiten ajustar gran parte de la dinámica del comportamiento de los datos en una ecuación y con base en esto estimar valores futuros de tráfico. Lo anterior es una ventaja para la planeación de cobertura, reservación de recursos y la realización de un control más oportuno y eficiente en forma integrada a diferentes niveles de la jerarquía funcional de la red de datos Wimax. Como resultado de la investigación se obtuvo un modelo de tráfico ARIMA de orden 18, el cual realizó pronósticos de tráfico con valores del error cuadrático medio relativamente pequeños, para un periodo de 10 días.

  15. Earthquake forecasting and its verification

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. R. Holliday

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available No proven method is currently available for the reliable short time prediction of earthquakes (minutes to months. However, it is possible to make probabilistic hazard assessments for earthquake risk. In this paper we discuss a new approach to earthquake forecasting based on a pattern informatics (PI method which quantifies temporal variations in seismicity. The output, which is based on an association of small earthquakes with future large earthquakes, is a map of areas in a seismogenic region ('hotspots'' where earthquakes are forecast to occur in a future 10-year time span. This approach has been successfully applied to California, to Japan, and on a worldwide basis. Because a sharp decision threshold is used, these forecasts are binary--an earthquake is forecast either to occur or to not occur. The standard approach to the evaluation of a binary forecast is the use of the relative (or receiver operating characteristic (ROC diagram, which is a more restrictive test and less subject to bias than maximum likelihood tests. To test our PI method, we made two types of retrospective forecasts for California. The first is the PI method and the second is a relative intensity (RI forecast based on the hypothesis that future large earthquakes will occur where most smaller earthquakes have occurred in the recent past. While both retrospective forecasts are for the ten year period 1 January 2000 to 31 December 2009, we performed an interim analysis 5 years into the forecast. The PI method out performs the RI method under most circumstances.

  16. Solar Indices Forecasting Tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henney, Carl John; Shurkin, Kathleen; Arge, Charles; Hill, Frank

    2016-05-01

    Progress to forecast key space weather parameters using SIFT (Solar Indices Forecasting Tool) with the ADAPT (Air Force Data Assimilative Photospheric flux Transport) model is highlighted in this presentation. Using a magnetic flux transport model, ADAPT, we estimate the solar near-side field distribution that is used as input into empirical models for predicting F10.7(solar 10.7 cm, 2.8 GHz, radio flux), the Mg II core-to-wing ratio, and selected bands of solar far ultraviolet (FUV) and extreme ultraviolet (EUV) irradiance. Input to the ADAPT model includes the inferred photospheric magnetic field from the NISP ground-based instruments, GONG & VSM. Besides a status update regarding ADAPT and SIFT models, we will summarize the findings that: 1) the sum of the absolute value of strong magnetic fields, associated with sunspots, is shown to correlate well with the observed daily F10.7 variability (Henney et al. 2012); and 2) the sum of the absolute value of weak magnetic fields, associated with plage regions, is shown to correlate well with EUV and FUV irradiance variability (Henney et al. 2015). This work utilizes data produced collaboratively between Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL) and the National Solar Observatory (NSO). The ADAPT model development is supported by AFRL. The input data utilized by ADAPT is obtained by NISP (NSO Integrated Synoptic Program). NSO is operated by the Association of Universities for Research in Astronomy (AURA), Inc., under a cooperative agreement with the National Science Foundation (NSF). The 10.7 cm solar radio flux data service, utilized by the ADAPT/SIFT F10.7 forecasting model, is operated by the National Research Council of Canada and National Resources Canada, with the support of the Canadian Space Agency.

  17. Forecasting in Complex Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rundle, J. B.; Holliday, J. R.; Graves, W. R.; Turcotte, D. L.; Donnellan, A.

    2014-12-01

    Complex nonlinear systems are typically characterized by many degrees of freedom, as well as interactions between the elements. Interesting examples can be found in the areas of earthquakes and finance. In these two systems, fat tails play an important role in the statistical dynamics. For earthquake systems, the Gutenberg-Richter magnitude-frequency is applicable, whereas for daily returns for the securities in the financial markets are known to be characterized by leptokurtotic statistics in which the tails are power law. Very large fluctuations are present in both systems. In earthquake systems, one has the example of great earthquakes such as the M9.1, March 11, 2011 Tohoku event. In financial systems, one has the example of the market crash of October 19, 1987. Both were largely unexpected events that severely impacted the earth and financial systems systemically. Other examples include the M9.3 Andaman earthquake of December 26, 2004, and the Great Recession which began with the fall of Lehman Brothers investment bank on September 12, 2013. Forecasting the occurrence of these damaging events has great societal importance. In recent years, national funding agencies in a variety of countries have emphasized the importance of societal relevance in research, and in particular, the goal of improved forecasting technology. Previous work has shown that both earthquakes and financial crashes can be described by a common Landau-Ginzburg-type free energy model. These metastable systems are characterized by fat tail statistics near the classical spinodal. Correlations in these systems can grow and recede, but do not imply causation, a common source of misunderstanding. In both systems, a common set of techniques can be used to compute the probabilities of future earthquakes or crashes. In this talk, we describe the basic phenomenology of these systems and emphasize their similarities and differences. We also consider the problem of forecast validation and verification

  18. Forecasting Turbine Icing Events

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Davis, Neil; Hahmann, Andrea N.; Clausen, Niels-Erik;

    2012-01-01

    In this study, we present a method for forecasting icing events. The method is validated at two European wind farms in with known icing events. The icing model used was developed using current ice accretion methods, and newly developed ablation algorithms. The model is driven by inputs from the WRF...... accumulations, which have not been seen in observations. In addition to the model evaluation we were able to investigate the potential occurrence of ice induced power loss at two wind parks in Europe using observed data. We found that the potential loss during an icing event is large even when the turbine...

  19. Forecasting Turbine Icing Events

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Davis, Neil; Hahmann, Andrea N.; Clausen, Niels-Erik;

    In this study, we present a method for forecasting icing events. The method is validated at two European wind farms in with known icing events. The icing model used was developed using current ice accretion methods, and newly developed ablation algorithms. The model is driven by inputs from the WRF...... accumulations, which have not been seen in observations. In addition to the model evaluation we were able to investigate the potential occurrence of ice induced power loss at two wind parks in Europe using observed data. We found that the potential loss during an icing event is large even when the turbine...

  20. On the Influence of Weather Forecast Errors in Short-Term Load Forecasting Models

    OpenAIRE

    Fay, D; Ringwood, John; Condon, M.

    2004-01-01

    Weather information is an important factor in load forecasting models. This weather information usually takes the form of actual weather readings. However, online operation of load forecasting models requires the use of weather forecasts, with associated weather forecast errors. A technique is proposed to model weather forecast errors to reflect current accuracy. A load forecasting model is then proposed which combines the forecasts of several load forecasting models. This approach allows the...

  1. Grey Box Modelling of Flow in Sewer Systems with State Dependent Diffusion

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Breinholt, Anders; Thordarson, Fannar Örn; Møller, Jan Kloppenborg;

    2011-01-01

    Generating flow forecasts with uncertainty limits from rain gauge inputs in sewer systems require simple models with identifiable parameters that can adequately describe the stochastic phenomena of the system. In this paper, a simple grey-box model is proposed that is attractive for both forecast......Generating flow forecasts with uncertainty limits from rain gauge inputs in sewer systems require simple models with identifiable parameters that can adequately describe the stochastic phenomena of the system. In this paper, a simple grey-box model is proposed that is attractive for both...... hypotheses for the diffusion term are investigated and compared: one that assumes additive diffusion; one that assumes state proportional diffusion; and one that assumes state exponentiated diffusion. To implement the state dependent diffusion terms Itô's formula and the Lamperti transform are applied....... It is shown that an additive diffusion noise term description leads to a violation of the physical constraints of the system, whereas a state dependent diffusion noise avoids this problem and should be favoured. It is also shown that a logarithmic transformation of the flow measurements secures positive lower...

  2. Unification of box shapes in molecular simulations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bekker, H.

    1997-01-01

    In molecular simulations with periodic boundary conditions the computational box may have five different shapes: triclinic; the hexagonal prism; two types of dodecahedrons; and the truncated octahedron. In this article, we show that every molecular simulation, formulated in one of these boxes, can b

  3. Box Plots in the Australian Curriculum

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watson, Jane M.

    2012-01-01

    This article compares the definition of "box plot" as used in the "Australian Curriculum: Mathematics" with other definitions used in the education community; describes the difficulties students experience when dealing with box plots; and discusses the elaboration that is necessary to enable teachers to develop the knowledge necessary to use them…

  4. Modern biotechnology Panacea or new Pandora's box?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tramper, J.; Yang Zhu, Yang

    2011-01-01

    According to Greek mythology Pandora was sent down to earth upon the orders of Zeus. She was given a mysterious box which she was not allowed to open. However, Pandora was very curious and when she arrived on earth she couldn?t help taking a peek inside the box. She saw that it was filled with gifts

  5. Cosmetic Foot Surgery: Fashion's Pandora's Box

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Fashion’s Pandora’s Box? A A A | Print | Share Cosmetic Foot Surgery: Fashion’s Pandora’s Box? Foot and ankle ... extreme and imprudent as it may sound, the cosmetic surgery craze isn't just for faces anymore- ...

  6. Projected Applications of a "Climate in a Box" Computing System at the NASA Short-Term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jedlovec, Gary J.; Molthan, Andrew L.; Zavodsky, Bradley; Case, Jonathan L.; LaFontaine, Frank J.

    2010-01-01

    The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center focuses on the transition of unique observations and research capabilities to the operational weather community, with a goal of improving short-term forecasts on a regional scale. Advances in research computing have lead to "Climate in a Box" systems, with hardware configurations capable of producing high resolution, near real-time weather forecasts, but with footprints, power, and cooling requirements that are comparable to desktop systems. The SPoRT Center has developed several capabilities for incorporating unique NASA research capabilities and observations with real-time weather forecasts. Planned utilization includes the development of a fully-cycled data assimilation system used to drive 36-48 hour forecasts produced by the NASA Unified version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model (NU-WRF). The horsepower provided by the "Climate in a Box" system is expected to facilitate the assimilation of vertical profiles of temperature and moisture provided by the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) aboard the NASA Aqua satellite. In addition, the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instruments aboard NASA s Aqua and Terra satellites provide high-resolution sea surface temperatures and vegetation characteristics. The development of MODIS normalized difference vegetation index (NVDI) composites for use within the NASA Land Information System (LIS) will assist in the characterization of vegetation, and subsequently the surface albedo and processes related to soil moisture. Through application of satellite simulators, NASA satellite instruments can be used to examine forecast model errors in cloud cover and other characteristics. Through the aforementioned application of the "Climate in a Box" system and NU-WRF capabilities, an end goal is the establishment of a real-time forecast system that fully integrates modeling and analysis capabilities developed within the NASA SPo

  7. Interactive Forecasting with the National Weather Service River Forecast System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, George F.; Page, Donna

    1993-01-01

    The National Weather Service River Forecast System (NWSRFS) consists of several major hydrometeorologic subcomponents to model the physics of the flow of water through the hydrologic cycle. The entire NWSRFS currently runs in both mainframe and minicomputer environments, using command oriented text input to control the system computations. As computationally powerful and graphically sophisticated scientific workstations became available, the National Weather Service (NWS) recognized that a graphically based, interactive environment would enhance the accuracy and timeliness of NWS river and flood forecasts. Consequently, the operational forecasting portion of the NWSRFS has been ported to run under a UNIX operating system, with X windows as the display environment on a system of networked scientific workstations. In addition, the NWSRFS Interactive Forecast Program was developed to provide a graphical user interface to allow the forecaster to control NWSRFS program flow and to make adjustments to forecasts as necessary. The potential market for water resources forecasting is immense and largely untapped. Any private company able to market the river forecasting technologies currently developed by the NWS Office of Hydrology could provide benefits to many information users and profit from providing these services.

  8. Probabilistic energy forecasting: Global Energy Forecasting Competition 2014 and beyond

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hong, Tao; Pinson, Pierre; Fan, Shu;

    2016-01-01

    The energy industry has been going through a significant modernization process over the last decade. Its infrastructure is being upgraded rapidly. The supply, demand and prices are becoming more volatile and less predictable than ever before. Even its business model is being challenged...... competition with four tracks on load, price, wind and solar forecasting, which attracted 581 participants from 61 countries. We conclude the paper with 12 predictions for the next decade of energy forecasting....... fundamentally. In this competitive and dynamic environment, many decision-making processes rely on probabilistic forecasts to quantify the uncertain future. Although most of the papers in the energy forecasting literature focus on point or singlevalued forecasts, the research interest in probabilistic energy...

  9. FORECASTING NEW PRODUCT SALES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Siriram

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available

    ENGLISH ABSTRACT: This paper tests the accuracy of using Linear regression, Logistics regression, and Bass curves in selected new product rollouts, based on sales data. The selected new products come from the electronics and electrical engineering and information and communications technology industries. The eight selected products are: electronic switchgear, electric motors, supervisory control and data acquisition systems, programmable logic controllers, cell phones, wireless modules, routers, and antennas. We compare the Linear regression, Logistics regression and Bass curves with respect to forecasting using analysis of variance. The accuracy of these three curves is studied and conclusions are drawn. We use an expert panel to compare the different curves and provide lessons for managers to improve forecasting new product sales. In addition, comparison between the two industries is drawn, and areas for further research are indicated.

    AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Hierdie artikel toets die akkuraatheid van die gebruik van linêere regressie, logistiese regressie en Bass-krommes by die bekendstelling van nuwe produkte gebaseer op verkoopsdata. Die geselekteerde nuwe produkte is uit die elektriese en elektroniese asook informasietegnologie- en kommunikasie bedrywe. Linêere regressie, logistiese regressie en Bass-krommes word vergelyk ten opsigte van vooruitskatting deur variansie te ontleed. Die akkuraatheid word ontleed en gevolgtrekkings gemaak. Die doel is om vooruitskatting van nuwe produkverkope te verbeter.

  10. Improving Local Weather Forecasts for Agricultural Applications

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Doeswijk, T.G.; Keesman, K.J.

    2005-01-01

    For controlling agricultural systems, weather forecasts can be of substantial importance. Studies have shown that forecast errors can be reduced in terms of bias and standard deviation using forecasts and meteorological measurements from one specific meteorological station. For agricultural systems

  11. k36u Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  12. Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) [1 Deg.

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) is a weather forecast model made up of 21 separate forecasts, or ensemble members. The National Centers for Environmental...

  13. Load forecasting of supermarket refrigeration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Lisa Buth; Bacher, Peder; Madsen, Henrik;

    2016-01-01

    This paper presents a novel study of models for forecasting the electrical load for supermarket refrigeration. The data used for building the models consists of load measurements, local climate measurements and weather forecasts. The load measurements are from a supermarket located in a village...

  14. Forecasting the future of biodiversity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fitzpatrick, M. C.; Sanders, Nate; Ferrier, Simon;

    2011-01-01

    , but their application to forecasting climate change impacts on biodiversity has been limited. Here we compare forecasts of changes in patterns of ant biodiversity in North America derived from ensembles of single-species models to those from a multi-species modeling approach, Generalized Dissimilarity Modeling (GDM...... climate change impacts on biodiversity....

  15. Advances in time series forecasting

    CERN Document Server

    Cagdas, Hakan Aladag

    2012-01-01

    Readers will learn how these methods work and how these approaches can be used to forecast real life time series. The hybrid forecasting model is also explained. Data presented in this e-book is problem based and is taken from real life situations. It is a valuable resource for students, statisticians and working professionals interested in advanced time series analysis.

  16. Weather Forecasting Systems and Methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mecikalski, John (Inventor); MacKenzie, Wayne M., Jr. (Inventor); Walker, John Robert (Inventor)

    2014-01-01

    A weather forecasting system has weather forecasting logic that receives raw image data from a satellite. The raw image data has values indicative of light and radiance data from the Earth as measured by the satellite, and the weather forecasting logic processes such data to identify cumulus clouds within the satellite images. For each identified cumulus cloud, the weather forecasting logic applies interest field tests to determine a score indicating the likelihood of the cumulus cloud forming precipitation and/or lightning in the future within a certain time period. Based on such scores, the weather forecasting logic predicts in which geographic regions the identified cumulus clouds will produce precipitation and/or lighting within during the time period. Such predictions may then be used to provide a weather map thereby providing users with a graphical illustration of the areas predicted to be affected by precipitation within the time period.

  17. Forecasting global atmospheric CO2

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Agustí-Panareda

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available A new global atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2 real-time forecast is now available as part of the pre-operational Monitoring of Atmospheric Composition and Climate – Interim Implementation (MACC-II service using the infrastructure of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System (IFS. One of the strengths of the CO2 forecasting system is that the land surface, including vegetation CO2 fluxes, is modelled online within the IFS. Other CO2 fluxes are prescribed from inventories and from off-line statistical and physical models. The CO2 forecast also benefits from the transport modelling from a state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction (NWP system initialized daily with a wealth of meteorological observations. This paper describes the capability of the forecast in modelling the variability of CO2 on different temporal and spatial scales compared to observations. The modulation of the amplitude of the CO2 diurnal cycle by near-surface winds and boundary layer height is generally well represented in the forecast. The CO2 forecast also has high skill in simulating day-to-day synoptic variability. In the atmospheric boundary layer, this skill is significantly enhanced by modelling the day-to-day variability of the CO2 fluxes from vegetation compared to using equivalent monthly mean fluxes with a diurnal cycle. However, biases in the modelled CO2 fluxes also lead to accumulating errors in the CO2 forecast. These biases vary with season with an underestimation of the amplitude of the seasonal cycle both for the CO2 fluxes compared to total optimized fluxes and the atmospheric CO2 compared to observations. The largest biases in the atmospheric CO2 forecast are found in spring, corresponding to the onset of the growing season in the Northern Hemisphere. In the future, the forecast will be re-initialized regularly with atmospheric CO2 analyses based on the assimilation of CO2 satellite retrievals, as they

  18. MADS-box gene evolution - structure and transcription patterns

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Johansen, Bo; Pedersen, Louise Buchholt; Skipper, Martin;

    2002-01-01

    Mads-box genes, ABC model, Evolution, Phylogeny, Transcription patterns, Gene structure, Conserved motifs......Mads-box genes, ABC model, Evolution, Phylogeny, Transcription patterns, Gene structure, Conserved motifs...

  19. Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2) Operational Forecasts

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2) produced by the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) is a fully coupled model representing the...

  20. Packing a cake into a box

    KAUST Repository

    Skopenkov, Mikhail

    2011-05-01

    Given a triangular cake and a box in the shape of its mirror image, how can the cake be cut into a minimal number of pieces so that it can be put into the box? The cake has icing, so we are not allowed to put it into the box upside down. V. G. Boltyansky asked this question in 1977 and showed that three pieces always suffice. In this paper we provide examples of cakes that cannot be cut into two pieces to be put into the box. This shows that three is the answer to Boltyansky\\'s question. We also give examples of cakes which can be cut into two pieces. © THE MATHEMATICAL ASSOCIATION OF AMERICA.

  1. Packing a cake into a box

    CERN Document Server

    Skopenkov, Mikhail

    2010-01-01

    Given a cake in form of a triangle and a box that fits the mirror image of the cake, how to cut the cake into a minimal number of pieces so that it can be put into the box? The cake has an icing, so that we are not allowed to put it into the box upside down. V.G. Boltyansky asked this question in 1977 and showed that three pieces always suffice. In this paper we provide examples of cakes that cannot be cut into two pieces to put into the box. This shows that three is the answer to V.G. Boltyansky's question. Also we give examples of cakes which can be cut into two pieces.

  2. Starling nest box monitoring [Rocky Mountain Arsenal

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — This document described the standard operating procedures for observing and recording data collected from starling nest box monitoring at the Rocky Mountain...

  3. Black-Box Search by Unbiased Variation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lehre, Per Kristian; Witt, Carsten

    2012-01-01

    The complexity theory for black-box algorithms, introduced by Droste, Jansen, and Wegener (Theory Comput. Syst. 39:525–544, 2006), describes common limits on the efficiency of a broad class of randomised search heuristics. There is an obvious trade-off between the generality of the black-box model...... and the strength of the bounds that can be proven in such a model. In particular, the original black-box model provides for well-known benchmark problems relatively small lower bounds, which seem unrealistic in certain cases and are typically not met by popular search heuristics.In this paper, we introduce a more...... restricted black-box model for optimisation of pseudo-Boolean functions which we claim captures the working principles of many randomised search heuristics including simulated annealing, evolutionary algorithms, randomised local search, and others. The key concept worked out is an unbiased variation operator...

  4. Mystery Boxes, X Rays, and Radiology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomson, Norman

    2000-01-01

    Indicates the difficulties of teaching concepts beyond light and color and creating memorable learning experiences. Recommends sequential activities using the mystery box approach to explain how scientists and doctors use photon applications. (YDS)

  5. Spacer for supporting fuel element boxes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A spacer plate unit arranged externally on each side and at a predetermined level of a polygonal fuel element box for mutually supporting, with respect to one another, a plurality of the fuel element boxes forming a fuel element bundle, is formed of a first and a second spacer plate part each having the same length and the same width and being constituted of unlike first and second materials, respectively. The first and second spacer plate parts of the several spacer plate units situated at the predetermined level are arranged in an alternating continuous series when viewed in the peripheral direction of the fuel element box, so that any two spacer plate units belonging to face-to-face oriented sides of two adjoining fuel element boxes in the fuel element bundle define interfaces of unlike materials

  6. Decommissioning a tritium glove-box facility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A large glove-box facility for handling reactive metal tritides was decommissioned. Major sections of the glove box were decontaminated and disassembled for reuse at another tritium facility. To achieve the desired results, decontamnation required repeated washing, first with organic liquids, then with water and detergents. Worker protection was provided by simple ventilation combined with careful monitoring of the work areas and employees. Several innovative techniques are described

  7. BOX-DEATH HOLLOW ROADLESS AREA, UTAH.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weir, Gordon W.; Lane, Michael

    1984-01-01

    Geologic mapping, geochemical sampling, and a search for prospects and mineralized rock in the Box-Death Hollow Roadless Area, Utah indicate that there is little promise for the occurrence of mineral or energy resources in the area. Additional exploratory drilling by industry seems warranted if wells elsewhere in the region find oil or gas in strata as yet untested in the Box-Death Hollow Roadless Area.

  8. Decommissioning a tritium glove-box facility

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Folkers, C.L.; Homann, S.G.; Nicolosi, A.S.; Hanel, S.L.; King, W.C.

    1979-08-08

    A large glove-box facility for handling reactive metal tritides was decommissioned. Major sections of the glove box were decontaminated and disassembled for reuse at another tritium facility. To achieve the desired results, decontamnation required repeated washing, first with organic liquids, then with water and detergents. Worker protection was provided by simple ventilation combined with careful monitoring of the work areas and employees. Several innovative techniques are described.

  9. BOX DIMENSIONS OF α-FRACTAL FUNCTIONS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akhtar, Md. Nasim; Prasad, M. Guru Prem; Navascués, M. A.

    2016-08-01

    The box dimension of the graph of non-affine, continuous, nowhere differentiable function fα which is a fractal analogue of a continuous function f corresponding to a certain iterated function system (IFS), is investigated in the present paper. The estimates for box dimension of the graph of α-fractal function fα for equally spaced as well as arbitrary data sets are found.

  10. HYDROGEN AND VOC RETENTION IN WASTE BOXES

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    PACE ME; MARUSICH RM

    2008-11-21

    The Hanford Waste Management Project Master Documented Safety Analysis (MDSA) (HNF-14741, 2003) identifies derived safety controls to prevent or mitigate the risks of a single-container deflagration during operations requiring moving, venting or opening transuranic (TRU)-waste containers. The issue is whether these safety controls are necessary for operations involving TRU-waste boxes that are being retrieved from burial at the Hanford Site. This paper investigates the potential for a deflagration hazard within these boxes and whether safety controls identified for drum deflagration hazards should be applied to operations involving these boxes. The study evaluates the accumulation of hydrogen and VOCs within the waste box and the transport of these gases and vapors out of the waste box. To perform the analysis, there were numerous and major assumptions made regarding the generation rate and the transport pathway dimensions and their number. Since there is little actual data with regards to these assumptions, analyses of three potential configurations were performed to obtain some indication of the bounds of the issue (the concentration of hydrogen or flammable VOCs within a waste box). A brief description of each of the three cases along with the results of the analysis is summarized.

  11. Forecasting the Integration of Immigrants

    CERN Document Server

    Contucci, Pierluigi; Seyedi, Seyedalireza

    2015-01-01

    This paper presents a quantitative framework for forecasting immigrant integration using immigrant density as the single driver. By comparing forecasted integration estimates based on data collected up to specific periods in time, with observed integration quantities beyond the specified period, we show that: Our forecasts are prompt-readily available after a short period of time, accurate-with a small relative error-and finally robust-able to predict integration correctly for several years to come. The research reported here proves that the proposed model of integration and its forecast framework are simple and effective tools to reduce uncertainties about how integration phenomena emerge and how they are likely to develop in response to increased migration levels in the future.

  12. Recurrent networks for wave forecasting

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Mandal, S.; Prabaharan, N.

    The tremendous increase in offshore operational activities demands improved wave forecasting techniques. With the knowledge of accurate wave conditions, it is possible to carry out the marine activities such as offshore drilling, naval operations...

  13. Light truck forecasts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Liepins, G.E.

    1979-09-01

    The recent dramatic increase in the number of light trucks (109% between 1963 and 1974) has prompted concern about the energy consequences of the growing popularity of the light truck. An estimate of the future number of light trucks is considered to be a reasonable first step in assessing the energy impact of these vehicles. The monograph contains forecasts based on two models and six scenarios. The coefficients for the models have been derived by ordinary least squares regression of national level time series data. The first model is a two stage model. The first stage estimates the number of light trucks and cars (together), and the second stage applies a share's submodel to determine the number of light trucks. The second model is a simultaneous equation model. The two models track one another remarkably well, within about 2%. The scenarios were chosen to be consistent with those used in the Lindsey-Kaufman study Projection of Light Truck Population to Year 2025. Except in the case of the most dismal economic scenario, the number of light trucks is expected to increase from the 1974 level of 0.09 light truck per person to about 0.12 light truck per person in 1995.

  14. Factor Forecasts for the UK

    OpenAIRE

    Artis, Michael J.; Banerjee, Anindya; Marcellino, Massimiliano

    2001-01-01

    Time series models are often adopted for forecasting because of their simplicity and good performance. The number of parameters in these models increases quickly with the number of variables modelled, so that usually only univariate or small-scale multivariate models are considered. Yet, data are now readily available for a very large number of macroeconomic variables that are potentially useful when forecasting. Hence, in this Paper we construct a large macroeconomic data-set for the UK, wit...

  15. Modeling and forecasting implied volatility

    OpenAIRE

    Ahoniemi, Katja

    2009-01-01

    This dissertation contains four essays, all of which model time series of implied volatility (IV) and assess the forecast performance of the models. The overall finding is that implied volatility is indeed forecastable, and its modeling can benefit from a new class of time series models, so-called multiplicative error models. It is often beneficial to model IV with two (or more) regimes to allow for periods of relative stability and periods of higher volatility in markets. The first essa...

  16. Forecasting extreme electricity spot prices

    OpenAIRE

    Volodymyr Korniichuk

    2012-01-01

    We propose a model for forecasting extreme electricity prices in real time (high frequency) settings. The unique feature of our model is its ability to forecast electricity price exceedances over very high thresholds, where only a few (if any) observations are available. The model can also be applied for simulating times of occurrence and magnitudes of the extreme prices. We employ a copula with a changing dependence parameter for capturing serial dependence in the extreme prices and the cens...

  17. Municipal water consumption forecast accuracy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fullerton, Thomas M.; Molina, Angel L.

    2010-06-01

    Municipal water consumption planning is an active area of research because of infrastructure construction and maintenance costs, supply constraints, and water quality assurance. In spite of that, relatively few water forecast accuracy assessments have been completed to date, although some internal documentation may exist as part of the proprietary "grey literature." This study utilizes a data set of previously published municipal consumption forecasts to partially fill that gap in the empirical water economics literature. Previously published municipal water econometric forecasts for three public utilities are examined for predictive accuracy against two random walk benchmarks commonly used in regional analyses. Descriptive metrics used to quantify forecast accuracy include root-mean-square error and Theil inequality statistics. Formal statistical assessments are completed using four-pronged error differential regression F tests. Similar to studies for other metropolitan econometric forecasts in areas with similar demographic and labor market characteristics, model predictive performances for the municipal water aggregates in this effort are mixed for each of the municipalities included in the sample. Given the competitiveness of the benchmarks, analysts should employ care when utilizing econometric forecasts of municipal water consumption for planning purposes, comparing them to recent historical observations and trends to insure reliability. Comparative results using data from other markets, including regions facing differing labor and demographic conditions, would also be helpful.

  18. 49 CFR 178.517 - Standards for plastic boxes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 2 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Standards for plastic boxes. 178.517 Section 178... PACKAGINGS Non-bulk Performance-Oriented Packaging Standards § 178.517 Standards for plastic boxes. (a) The following are identification codes for plastic boxes: (1) 4H1 for an expanded plastic box; and (2) 4H2 for...

  19. Complementarity in the Einstein-Bohr photon box

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dieks, D.G.B.J.; Lam, S

    2008-01-01

    The Bohr-Einstein photon box thought experiment is a forerunner of the EPR experiment: a packet of radiation escapes from a box, and the box-plus-radiation state remains entangled. Hence, a measurement on the box makes a difference for the state of the far-away radiation long after its escape. This

  20. 49 CFR 230.101 - Steam locomotive driving journal boxes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Steam locomotive driving journal boxes. 230.101... Locomotives and Tenders Running Gear § 230.101 Steam locomotive driving journal boxes. (a) Driving journal boxes. Driving journal boxes shall be maintained in a safe and suitable condition for service. Not...

  1. Evaluating the Rationality of Managers' Sales Forecasts

    OpenAIRE

    de Bruijn, Bert; Franses, Philip Hans

    2011-01-01

    textabstractThis paper deals with the analysis and evaluation of sales forecasts of managers, given that it is unknown how they constructed their forecasts. Our goal is to find out whether these forecasts are rational. To examine deviations from rationality, we argue that one has to approximate how the managers could have generated the forecasts. We describe several ways to construct these approximate expressions. The analysis of a large set of a single manager's forecasts for sales of pharma...

  2. Personalized Real Time Weather Forecasting With Recommendations

    OpenAIRE

    Abhishek Kumar Singh; Aditi Sharma; Rahul Mishra

    2013-01-01

    Temperature forecasting and rain forecasting in today's environment is playing a major role in many fields like transportation, tour planning and agriculture. The purpose of this paper is to provide a real time forecasting to the user according to their current position and requirement. The simplest method of forecasting the weather, persistence, relies upon today's conditions to forecast the conditions tomorrow i.e. analyzing historical data for predicting future weather conditions. The weat...

  3. On Combining Forecasts: Some Extensions and Results

    OpenAIRE

    Anthony E. Bopp

    1985-01-01

    This paper is about the motivation, methodology, and evaluation of combining the forecasts from two or more different models in a "combined" forecast. Granger and Newbold (Granger, C., P. Newbold. 1977. Forecasting Economic Time Series. Academic Press, New York.) have presented this method as one whereby an "optimal" forecast can be obtained. Makridakis and Winkler (1966) and Winkler and Makridakis (Winkler, R., S. Makridakis. 1983. The combination of forecasts: some empirical results. J. Roy...

  4. Quantile forecast discrimination ability and value

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ben Bouallègue, Zied; Pinson, Pierre; Friederichs, Petra

    2015-01-01

    While probabilistic forecast verification for categorical forecasts is well established, some of the existing concepts and methods have not found their equivalent for the case of continuous variables. New tools dedicated to the assessment of forecast discrimination ability and forecast value are ...... is illustrated based on synthetic datasets, as well as for the case of global radiation forecasts from the high resolution ensemble COSMO-DE-EPS of the German Weather Service....

  5. HESS Opinions "Forecaster priorities for improving probabilistic flood forecasts"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wetterhall, F.; Pappenberger, F.; Alfieri, L.; Cloke, H. L.; Thielen-del Pozo, J.; Balabanova, S.; Daňhelka, J.; Vogelbacher, A.; Salamon, P.; Carrasco, I.; Cabrera-Tordera, A. J.; Corzo-Toscano, M.; Garcia-Padilla, M.; Garcia-Sanchez, R. J.; Ardilouze, C.; Jurela, S.; Terek, B.; Csik, A.; Casey, J.; Stankūnavičius, G.; Ceres, V.; Sprokkereef, E.; Stam, J.; Anghel, E.; Vladikovic, D.; Alionte Eklund, C.; Hjerdt, N.; Djerv, H.; Holmberg, F.; Nilsson, J.; Nyström, K.; Sušnik, M.; Hazlinger, M.; Holubecka, M.

    2013-11-01

    Hydrological ensemble prediction systems (HEPS) have in recent years been increasingly used for the operational forecasting of floods by European hydrometeorological agencies. The most obvious advantage of HEPS is that more of the uncertainty in the modelling system can be assessed. In addition, ensemble prediction systems generally have better skill than deterministic systems both in the terms of the mean forecast performance and the potential forecasting of extreme events. Research efforts have so far mostly been devoted to the improvement of the physical and technical aspects of the model systems, such as increased resolution in time and space and better description of physical processes. Developments like these are certainly needed; however, in this paper we argue that there are other areas of HEPS that need urgent attention. This was also the result from a group exercise and a survey conducted to operational forecasters within the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS) to identify the top priorities of improvement regarding their own system. They turned out to span a range of areas, the most popular being to include verification of an assessment of past forecast performance, a multi-model approach for hydrological modelling, to increase the forecast skill on the medium range (>3 days) and more focus on education and training on the interpretation of forecasts. In light of limited resources, we suggest a simple model to classify the identified priorities in terms of their cost and complexity to decide in which order to tackle them. This model is then used to create an action plan of short-, medium- and long-term research priorities with the ultimate goal of an optimal improvement of EFAS in particular and to spur the development of operational HEPS in general.

  6. A New Way to Predict Forecast Skill

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    谭季青; 谢正辉; 纪立人

    2003-01-01

    Forecast skill (Anomaly Correlated Coefficient, ACC) is a quantity to show the forecast quality ofthe products of numerical weather forecasting models. Predicting forecast skill, which is the foundationof ensemble forecasting, means submitting products to predict their forecast quality before they are used.Checking the reason is to understand the predictability for the real cases. This kind of forecasting servicehas been put into operational use by statistical methods previously at the National Meteorological Center(NMC), USA (now called the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)) and European Centerfor Medium-range Weather Forecast (ECMWF). However, this kind of service is far from satisfactorybecause only a single variable is used with the statistical method. In this paper, a new way based onthe Grey Control Theory with multiple predictors to predict forecast skill of forecast products of theT42L9 of the NMC, China Meteorological Administration (CMA) is introduced. The results show: (1)The correlation coefficients between "forecasted" and real forecast skill range from 0.56 to 0.7 at differentseasons during the two-year period. (2) The grey forecasting model GM(1,8) forecasts successfully thehigh peaks, the increasing or decreasing tendency, and the turning points of the change of forecast skill ofcases from 5 January 1990 to 29 February 1992.

  7. Bending analysis of laminated composite box beams

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tripathy, A.K.; Patel, H.J.; Pang, S.S. (Louisiana State Univ., Baton Rouge, LA (United States). Dept. of Mechanical Engineering)

    1994-01-01

    Box beams are widely used in weight reduction structures such as aircraft wings. The use of composite box beams further reduces the weight factor for such structures with the same deflection and stress as that of isotropic box beams. The difference in the behavior of composite box beam with different fiber orientation, number of plies, and number of stringers also provides a wide range of designing parameters to achieve the required performance for a given problem. A bending analysis has been carried out for the study of deflections and stresses for box beams of different material (isotropic and laminated composites), size, and number of stringers subjected to different kinds of loading conditions. A finite element model has been developed based on the strain energy principle, and the results are compared with an available commercial code COSMOS/M.'' Experiments using aluminum and scotchply composite laminates were conducted to verify the results. An optimal design for size and number of stiffeners for a given loading condition has been achieved. Investigations have also been carried out to find the effect of transverse shear on the span-wise normal stress.

  8. Advances in the theory of box integrals

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bailey, David H.; Borwein, J.M.; Crandall, R.E.

    2009-06-25

    Box integrals - expectations <|{rvec r}|{sup s}> or <|{rvec r}-{rvec q}|{sup s}> over the unit n-cube (or n-box) - have over three decades been occasionally given closed forms for isolated n,s. By employing experimental mathematics together with a new, global analytic strategy, we prove that for n {le} 4 dimensions the box integrals are for any integer s hypergeometrically closed in a sense we clarify herein. For n = 5 dimensions, we show that a single unresolved integral we call K{sub 5} stands in the way of such hyperclosure proofs. We supply a compendium of exemplary closed forms that naturally arise algorithmically from this theory.

  9. Nearly Seamless Vacuum-Insulated Boxes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stepanian, Christopher J.; Ou, Danny; Hu, Xiangjun

    2010-01-01

    A design concept, and a fabrication process that would implement the design concept, have been proposed for nearly seamless vacuum-insulated boxes that could be the main structural components of a variety of controlled-temperature containers, including common household refrigerators and insulating containers for shipping foods. In a typical case, a vacuum-insulated box would be shaped like a rectangular parallelepiped conventional refrigerator box having five fully closed sides and a hinged door on the sixth side. Although it is possible to construct the five-closed-side portion of the box as an assembly of five unitary vacuum-insulated panels, it is not desirable to do so because the relatively high thermal conductances of the seams between the panels would contribute significant amounts of heat leakage, relative to the leakage through the panels themselves. In contrast, the proposal would make it possible to reduce heat leakage by constructing the five-closed-side portion of the box plus the stationary portion (if any) of the sixth side as a single, seamless unit; the only remaining seam would be the edge seal around the door. The basic cross-sectional configuration of each side of a vacuum-insulated box according to the proposal would be that of a conventional vacuum-insulated panel: a low-density, porous core material filling a partially evacuated space between face sheets. However, neither the face sheets nor the core would be conventional. The face sheets would be opposite sides of a vacuum bag. The core material would be a flexible polymer-modified silica aerogel of the type described in Silica/Polymer and Silica/Polymer/Fiber Composite Aero - gels (MSC-23736) in this issue of NASA Tech Briefs. As noted in that article, the stiffness of this core material against compression is greater than that of prior aerogels. This is an important advantage because it translates to greater retention of thickness and, hence, of insulation performance when pressure is

  10. Advances in Solar Power Forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haupt, S. E.; Kosovic, B.; Drobot, S.

    2014-12-01

    The National Center for Atmospheric Research and partners are building a blended SunCast Solar Power Forecasting system. This system includes several short-range nowcasting models and improves upon longer range numerical weather prediction (NWP) models as part of the "Public-Private-Academic Partnership to Advance Solar Power Forecasting." The nowcasting models being built include statistical learning models that include cloud regime prediction, multiple sky imager-based advection models, satellite image-based advection models, and rapid update NWP models with cloud assimilation. The team has also integrated new modules into the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) to better predict clouds, aerosols, and irradiance. The modules include a new shallow convection scheme; upgraded physics parameterizations of clouds; new radiative transfer modules that specify GHI, DNI, and DIF prediction; better satellite assimilation methods; and new aerosol estimation methods. These new physical models are incorporated into WRF-Solar, which is then integrated with publically available NWP models via the Dynamic Integrated Forecast (DICast) system as well as the Nowcast Blender to provide seamless forecasts at partner utility and balancing authority commercial solar farms. The improvements will be described and results to date discussed.

  11. CME Ensemble Forecasting - A Primer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pizzo, V. J.; de Koning, C. A.; Cash, M. D.; Millward, G. H.; Biesecker, D. A.; Codrescu, M.; Puga, L.; Odstrcil, D.

    2014-12-01

    SWPC has been evaluating various approaches for ensemble forecasting of Earth-directed CMEs. We have developed the software infrastructure needed to support broad-ranging CME ensemble modeling, including composing, interpreting, and making intelligent use of ensemble simulations. The first step is to determine whether the physics of the interplanetary propagation of CMEs is better described as chaotic (like terrestrial weather) or deterministic (as in tsunami propagation). This is important, since different ensemble strategies are to be pursued under the two scenarios. We present the findings of a comprehensive study of CME ensembles in uniform and structured backgrounds that reveals systematic relationships between input cone parameters and ambient flow states and resulting transit times and velocity/density amplitudes at Earth. These results clearly indicate that the propagation of single CMEs to 1 AU is a deterministic process. Thus, the accuracy with which one can forecast the gross properties (such as arrival time) of CMEs at 1 AU is determined primarily by the accuracy of the inputs. This is no tautology - it means specifically that efforts to improve forecast accuracy should focus upon obtaining better inputs, as opposed to developing better propagation models. In a companion paper (deKoning et al., this conference), we compare in situ solar wind data with forecast events in the SWPC operational archive to show how the qualitative and quantitative findings presented here are entirely consistent with the observations and may lead to improved forecasts of arrival time at Earth.

  12. Box truss development and its application

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coyner, J. V.

    1985-04-01

    Since 1977, Martin Marietta Denver Aerospace has aggressively pursued development of deployable structural systems applicable to a wide variety of Shuttle-transportable large space system requirements. This effort has focused on the deployable box truss, mechanisms and materials development, mesh reflector design and fabrication, gate frame truss design and fabrication, and offset-fed antenna design and analysis. The activities discussed are: box truss design; metal matrix composites; precision joints; enhanced passive damping design; mesh reflector development; gate frame truss for solar arrays; 15-meter spinning radio meter; and 60 x 120 meter push broom antenna.

  13. CASAS: A Smart Home in a Box.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cook, Diane J; Crandall, Aaron S; Thomas, Brian L; Krishnan, Narayanan C

    2013-07-01

    While the potential benefits of smart home technology are widely recognized, a lightweight design is needed for the benefits to be realized at a large scale. We introduce the CASAS "smart home in a box", a lightweight smart home design that is easy to install and provides smart home capabilities out of the box with no customization or training. We discuss types of data analysis that have been performed by the CASAS group and can be pursued in the future by using this approach to designing and implementing smart home technologies.

  14. EnergyBox: Tool improvement and GUI

    OpenAIRE

    Polis, Rihards

    2014-01-01

    EnergyBox is a parametrised estimation tool that uses packet traces as input to simulate the energy consumption of communication in mobile devices. This tool models the transmission behaviour of a smart phone by analysing a recorded packet trace from the device. The purpose of the thesis is to reimplement the original EnergyBox energy consumption modelling tool. The project aims to develop support for a graphical user interface (GUI) and a code base that is easier to modify and maintain. The ...

  15. A New Reference for Wind Power Forecasting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Torben Skov; Joensen, Alfred K.; Madsen, Henrik;

    1998-01-01

    In recent years some research towards developing forecasting models for wind power or energy has been carried out. In order to evaluate the prediction ability of these models, the forecasts are usually compared with those of the persistence forecast model. As shown in this article, however......, it is not reasonable to use the persistence model when the forecast length is more than a few hours. Instead, a new statistical reference for predicting wind power, which basically is a weighting between the persistence and the mean of the power, is proposed. This reference forecast model is adequate for all forecast...

  16. Investigation on features and tendencies of axle-box heating

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olegas LUNYS

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Breakdown of rolling stock axle-boxes if not detected in due time may cause a rail accident or disaster. At present, a lot of advanced technologies, modern equipment and devices, which “recognizes” faulty axle-boxes when the train is in motion, have been implemented. However, the timely identification of breakdown of rolling stock axle-boxes still is an acute problem, the initial stage of damage emergence being especially problematic. Presently, rolling stock axle-box breakdown is determined according to the higher than permissible temperature of the axle-box body. The article provides statistical data of dangerously heated axle-boxes, determined train delay durations, the number of delayed trains by danger level, and dependence of damage on the season. After systematization of data on axle-box damage and heating temperatures of broken axle-boxes, heating tendencies of axle-boxes of freight wagons are described. Finally, basic conclusions are given.

  17. Forecasting Interest Rates and Inflation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chun, Albert Lee

    This study examines the performance of the professional analysts in the Blue Chip Financial Forecasts vis-à-vis set of competing econometric benchmarks, including shrinkage versions that adjust for in-sample over-fit in improving out-of-sample performance. The individual participants perform...... the best overall for short horizon forecasts of short to medium term yields and inflation. Econometric models with shrinkage perform the best over longer horizons and maturities. Aggregating over a larger set of analysts improves inflation surveys while generally degrading interest rates surveys. We...... document predictability in the survey forecast errors, which exhibit substantial variability across different economic episodes, and propose a new adjustment that can substantially improve the performance of the survey participants....

  18. Image-Based Learning Approach Applied to Time Series Forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. C. Chimal-Eguía

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, a new learning approach based on time-series image information is presented. In order to implementthis new learning technique, a novel time-series input data representation is also defined. This input datarepresentation is based on information obtained by image axis division into boxes. The difference between this newinput data representation and the classical is that this technique is not time-dependent. This new information isimplemented in the new Image-Based Learning Approach (IBLA and by means of a probabilistic mechanism thislearning technique is applied to the interesting problem of time series forecasting. The experimental results indicatethat by using the methodology proposed in this article, it is possible to obtain better results than with the classicaltechniques such as artificial neuronal networks and support vector machines.

  19. Forecast Combination under Heavy-Tailed Errors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gang Cheng

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Forecast combination has been proven to be a very important technique to obtain accurate predictions for various applications in economics, finance, marketing and many other areas. In many applications, forecast errors exhibit heavy-tailed behaviors for various reasons. Unfortunately, to our knowledge, little has been done to obtain reliable forecast combinations for such situations. The familiar forecast combination methods, such as simple average, least squares regression or those based on the variance-covariance of the forecasts, may perform very poorly due to the fact that outliers tend to occur, and they make these methods have unstable weights, leading to un-robust forecasts. To address this problem, in this paper, we propose two nonparametric forecast combination methods. One is specially proposed for the situations in which the forecast errors are strongly believed to have heavy tails that can be modeled by a scaled Student’s t-distribution; the other is designed for relatively more general situations when there is a lack of strong or consistent evidence on the tail behaviors of the forecast errors due to a shortage of data and/or an evolving data-generating process. Adaptive risk bounds of both methods are developed. They show that the resulting combined forecasts yield near optimal mean forecast errors relative to the candidate forecasts. Simulations and a real example demonstrate their superior performance in that they indeed tend to have significantly smaller prediction errors than the previous combination methods in the presence of forecast outliers.

  20. Forecast communication through the newspaper Part 1: Framing the forecaster

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harris, Andrew J. L.

    2015-04-01

    This review is split into two parts both of which address issues of forecast communication of an environmental disaster through the newspaper during a period of crisis. The first part explores the process by which information passes from the scientist or forecaster, through the media filter, to the public. As part of this filter preference, omission, selection of data, source, quote and story, as well as placement of the same information within an individual piece or within the newspaper itself, can serve to distort the message. The result is the introduction of bias and slant—that is, the message becomes distorted so as to favor one side of the argument against another as it passes through the filter. Bias can be used to support spin or agenda setting, so that a particular emphasis becomes placed on the story which exerts an influence on the reader's judgment. The net result of the filter components is either a negative (contrary) or positive (supportive) frame. Tabloidization of the news has also resulted in the use of strong, evocative, exaggerated words, headlines and images to support a frame. I illustrate these various elements of the media filter using coverage of the air space closure due to the April 2010 eruption of Eyjafjallajökull (Iceland). Using the British press coverage of this event it is not difficult to find examples of all media filter elements, application of which resulted in bias against the forecast and forecaster. These actors then became named and blamed. Within this logic, it becomes only too easy for forecasters and scientists to be framed in a negative way through blame culture. The result is that forecast is framed in such a way so as to cause the forecaster to be blamed for all losses associated with the loss-causing event. Within the social amplification of risk framework (SARF), this can amplify a negative impression of the risk, the event and the response. However, actions can be taken to avoid such an outcome. These actions

  1. Hazard Analysis of Japanese Boxed Lunches (Bento).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bryan, Frank L.; And Others

    1991-01-01

    For the purposes of identifying contaminants, of assessing risks, and of determining critical food processing control points, hazard analyses were conducted at two "bento" (oriental boxed meals) catering operations. Time and temperature abuses during the holding period, after cooking and prior to consumption, were found to be the primary reason…

  2. A white box perspective on behavioural adaptation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bruni, Roberto; Corradini, Andrea; Gadducci, Fabio;

    2015-01-01

    We present a white-box conceptual framework for adaptation developed in the context of the EU Project ASCENS coordinated by Martin Wirsing. We called it CoDA, for Control Data Adaptation, since it is based on the notion of control data. CoDA promotes a neat separation between application and adap...

  3. RELIABILITY BASED DESIGN OF A GEAR BOX

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D.MADHUSEKHAR

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Reliability is the probability that a system, component or device will perform without failure for a specified period of time under specified operating conditions. The concept of reliability is of great importance in the design of various machine members. Conventional engineering design uses a deterministic approach. It disregards the fact that the material properties, the dimensions of the components and the externally applied loads are statistical in nature. In conventional design this uncertainties are covered with a factor of safety, which is not always successful. The growing trend towards reducing uncertainty and increasing reliability is to use the probabilistic approach. In the present work a three shaft four speed gear box and six speed gear box are designed using reliability principles. For the specified reliability of the system (Gear box, component reliability (Gear pair is calculated by considering the system as a series system. Design is considered to be safe and adequate if the probability of failure of gear box is less than or equal to a specified quantity in each of the two failure modes. . All the parameters affecting the design are considered as random variables and all the random variables are assumed to follow normal distribution. A computer program in C++ is developed to calculate the face widths in bending and surface failure modes. The larger one out of the two values is considered. By changing the variations in the design parameters, variations in the face widths are studied.

  4. PVC posting bags for glove boxes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This specification covers the materials, measurements and manufacture of unpigmented PVC posting bags for use on glove boxes, together with methods of testing the materials. These bags are used in the handling of radioactive and toxic materials of a hazardous nature and therefore must be of the highest standard of mechanical strength, leak tightness and general finish. (author)

  5. Cereal Box Design: An Interdisciplinary Graphics Activity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fitzgerald, Mike; Tsosie, Teri

    2012-01-01

    The cereal box design activity is intriguing both for its simplicity and the resourcefulness that it can generate in young people. Also, it lends itself to a variety of curriculums. It covers both consumerism and Design for the Environment (DfE) concepts broadly and in depth. The activity introduces a wide range of topics. They include graphic…

  6. Using Story Boxes in Language Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collins, Rita

    2009-01-01

    Story boxes and story bags are containers for holding realia that are used to enhance reading and provide a variety of activities for encouraging language acquisition and use. Whatever the packaging, these are good ways to develop students' interest in books. Using realia, or real-life objects, to teach a foreign language is not a novel concept.…

  7. Study of WATCH GRB error boxes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gorosabel, J.; Castro-Tirado, A. J.; Lund, Niels;

    1995-01-01

    We have studied the first WATCH GRB Catalogue ofγ-ray Bursts in order to find correlations between WATCH GRB error boxes and a great variety of celestial objects present in 33 different catalogues. No particular class of objects has been found to be significantly correlated with the WATCH GRBs....

  8. One-Dimensional Oscillator in a Box

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amore, Paolo; Fernandez, Francisco M.

    2010-01-01

    We discuss a quantum-mechanical model of two particles that interact by means of a harmonic potential and are confined to a one-dimensional box with impenetrable walls. We apply perturbation theory to the cases of different and equal masses and analyse the symmetry of the states in the latter case. We compare the approximate perturbation results…

  9. One-dimensional oscillator in a box

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Amore, Paolo [Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad de Colima, Bernal DIaz del Castillo 340, Colima, Colima (Mexico); Fernandez, Francisco M [INIFTA (UNLP, CCT La Plata-CONICET), Division Quimica Teorica, Blvd 113 S/N, Sucursal 4, Casilla de Correo 16, 1900 La Plata (Argentina)], E-mail: paolo@ucol.mx, E-mail: fernande@quimica.unlp.edu.ar

    2010-01-15

    We discuss a quantum-mechanical model of two particles that interact by means of a harmonic potential and are confined to a one-dimensional box with impenetrable walls. We apply perturbation theory to the cases of different and equal masses and analyse the symmetry of the states in the latter case. We compare the approximate perturbation results with accurate numerical ones.

  10. Quantile forecast discrimination ability and value

    CERN Document Server

    Bouallegue, Zied Ben; Friederichs, Petra

    2015-01-01

    While probabilistic forecast verification for categorical forecasts is well established, some of the existing concepts and methods have not found their equivalent for the case of continuous variables. New tools dedicated to the assessment of forecast discrimination ability and forecast value are introduced here, based on quantile forecasts being the base product for the continuous case (hence in a nonparametric framework). The relative user characteristic (RUC) curve and the quantile value plot allow analysing the performance of a forecast for a specific user in a decision-making framework. The RUC curve is designed as a user-based discrimination tool and the quantile value plot translates forecast discrimination ability in terms of economic value. The relationship between the overall value of a quantile forecast and the respective quantile skill score is also discussed. The application of these new verification approaches and tools is illustrated based on synthetic datasets, as well as for the case of global...

  11. Modelling and Forecasting Multivariate Realized Volatility

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Halbleib, Roxana; Voev, Valeri

    2011-01-01

    This paper proposes a methodology for dynamic modelling and forecasting of realized covariance matrices based on fractionally integrated processes. The approach allows for flexible dependence patterns and automatically guarantees positive definiteness of the forecast. We provide an empirical...

  12. WPC's Short Range Forecast Coded Bulletin

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Short Range Forecast Coded Bulletin. The Short Range Forecast Coded Bulletin describes the expected locations of high and low pressure centers, surface frontal...

  13. Global Forecast System (GFS) [1 Deg.

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Global Forecast System (GFS) is a weather forecast model produced by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). Dozens of atmospheric and...

  14. Tuberculosis Case Finding in Benin, 2000-2014 and Beyond: A Retrospective Cohort and Time Series Study.

    OpenAIRE

    Serge Ade; Wilfried Békou; Mênonli Adjobimey; Omer Adjibode; Gabriel Ade; Harries, Anthony D; Séverin Anagonou

    2016-01-01

    Objective. To determine any changes in tuberculosis epidemiology in the last 15 years in Benin, seasonal variations, and forecasted numbers of tuberculosis cases in the next five years. Materials and Methods. Retrospective cohort and time series study of all tuberculosis cases notified between 2000 and 2014. The "R" software version 3.2.1 (Institute for Statistics and Mathematics Vienna Austria) and the Box-Jenkins 1976 modeling approach were used for time series analysis. Results. Of 246943 ...

  15. International tourism demand in Macedonia: Current status and estimation

    OpenAIRE

    Biljana Petrevska

    2013-01-01

    The paper aims to investigate current international tourism demand in Macedonia, as well as to make an attempt to forecast it in a short-term horizon by 2014. For this purpose, the past and current patterns are based on stylized facts obtained from secondary data spreading over a sample period from 2000-2011. Furthermore, the estimation of future trends is based on Box-Jenkins methodology. Several alternative specifications were introduced and upon the outcomes of standard indicators for accu...

  16. Forecast Combination Under Heavy-Tailed Errors

    OpenAIRE

    Gang Cheng; Sicong Wang; Yuhong Yang

    2015-01-01

    Forecast combination has been proven to be a very important technique to obtain accurate predictions for various applications in economics, finance, marketing and many other areas. In many applications, forecast errors exhibit heavy-tailed behaviors for various reasons. Unfortunately, to our knowledge, little has been done to obtain reliable forecast combinations for such situations. The familiar forecast combination methods, such as simple average, least squares regression or those based on ...

  17. Forecasting and Operational Research:A Review

    OpenAIRE

    R A Fildes; Nikolopoulos, K.; Crone, S; Syntetos, A

    2008-01-01

    From its foundation, operational research (OR) has made many substantial contributions to practical forecasting in organizations. Equally, researchers in other disciplines have influenced forecasting practice. Since the last survey articles in JORS, forecasting has developed as a discipline with its own journals. While the effect of this increased specialization has been a narrowing of the scope of OR's interest in forecasting, research from an OR perspective remains vigorous. OR has been mor...

  18. Information use in supply chain forecasting

    OpenAIRE

    Fildes, Robert; Goodwin, Paul; Onkal, Dilek

    2015-01-01

    Demand forecasting to support supply chain planning is a critical activity, recognized as pivotal in manufacturing and retailing operations where information is shared across functional areas to produce final detailed forecasts. The approach generally encountered is that a baseline statistical forecast is examined in the light of shared information from sales, marketing and logistics and the statistical forecast may then be modified to take these various pieces of information into account. T...

  19. Forecasting economic variables with nonlinear models

    OpenAIRE

    Teräsvirta, Timo

    2005-01-01

    This article is concerned with forecasting from nonlinear conditional mean models. First, a number of often applied nonlinear conditional mean models are introduced and their main properties discussed. The next section is devoted to techniques of building nonlinear models. Ways of computing multi-step ahead forecasts from nonlinear models are surveyed. Tests of forecast accuracy in the case where the models generating the forecasts are nested are discussed. There is a numerical example, showi...

  20. P*: not the inflation forecaster's holy grail

    OpenAIRE

    Lawrence J. Christiano

    1989-01-01

    This paper describes and evaluates P-Star (P*), a new method to forecast inflation trends which was introduced by the Federal Reserve Board of Governors in the summer of 1989. The paper examines how well P* would have done, compared with eight other forecasting methods, had all of these methods been used to forecast inflation in the 1970s and 1980s. P* turns out to be not an exceptionally good or bad way to forecast inflation.

  1. A Delphi forecast of technology in education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robinson, B. E.

    1973-01-01

    The results are reported of a Delphi forecast of the utilization and social impacts of large-scale educational telecommunications technology. The focus is on both forecasting methodology and educational technology. The various methods of forecasting used by futurists are analyzed from the perspective of the most appropriate method for a prognosticator of educational technology, and review and critical analysis are presented of previous forecasts and studies. Graphic responses, summarized comments, and a scenario of education in 1990 are presented.

  2. Economic and Statistical Measures of Forecast Accuracy

    OpenAIRE

    Granger, Clive W.J.; Pesaran, M. Hashem

    1999-01-01

    This paper argues in favour of a closer link between decision and forecast evaluation problems. Although the idea of using decision theory for forecast evaluation appears early in the dynamic stochastic programming literature, and has continued to be used in meteorological forecasts, it is hardly mentioned in standard academic textbooks on economic forecasting. Some of the main issues involved are illustrated in the context of a two-state, two-action decision problem as well as in a more gene...

  3. An Evaluation of Forecasting Methods and Forecast Combination Methods in Goods Management Systems

    OpenAIRE

    Schneider, Carsten; Klapper, Matthias; Wenzel, Thomas

    1999-01-01

    In this paper we use 4 different time series models to forecast sales in a goods management system. We use a variety of forecast combining techniques and measure the forecast quality by applying symmetric and asymmetric forecast quality measures. Simple, rank-, and criteria-based combining methods lead to an improvement of the individual time series models.

  4. Forecasting Consumer Adoption of Information Technology and Services--Lessons from Home Video Forecasting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klopfenstein, Bruce C.

    1989-01-01

    Describes research that examined the strengths and weaknesses of technological forecasting methods by analyzing forecasting studies made for home video players. The discussion covers assessments and explications of correct and incorrect forecasting assumptions, and their implications for forecasting the adoption of home information technologies…

  5. Severe Weather Forecast Decision Aid

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bauman, William H., III; Wheeler, Mark M.; Short, David A.

    2005-01-01

    This report presents a 15-year climatological study of severe weather events and related severe weather atmospheric parameters. Data sources included local forecast rules, archived sounding data, Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Surveillance System (CGLSS) data, surface and upper air maps, and two severe weather event databases covering east-central Florida. The local forecast rules were used to set threat assessment thresholds for stability parameters that were derived from the sounding data. The severe weather events databases were used to identify days with reported severe weather and the CGLSS data was used to differentiate between lightning and non-lightning days. These data sets provided the foundation for analyzing the stability parameters and synoptic patterns that were used to develop an objective tool to aid in forecasting severe weather events. The period of record for the analysis was May - September, 1989 - 2003. The results indicate that there are certain synoptic patterns more prevalent on days with severe weather and some of the stability parameters are better predictors of severe weather days based on locally tuned threat values. The results also revealed the stability parameters that did not display any skill related to severe weather days. An interactive web-based Severe Weather Decision Aid was developed to assist the duty forecaster by providing a level of objective guidance based on the analysis of the stability parameters, CGLSS data, and synoptic-scale dynamics. The tool will be tested and evaluated during the 2005 warm season.

  6. Forecasting the space weather impact

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Crosby, N. B.; Veronig, A.; Robbrecht, E.;

    2012-01-01

    The FP7 COronal Mass Ejections and Solar Energetic Particles (COMESEP) project is developing tools for forecasting geomagnetic storms and solar energetic particle (SEP) radiation storms. By analysis of historical data, complemented by the extensive data coverage of solar cycle 23, the key...

  7. Neural Network based Consumption Forecasting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Per Printz

    2016-01-01

    This paper describe a Neural Network based method for consumption forecasting. This work has been financed by the The ENCOURAGE project. The aims of The ENCOURAGE project is to develop embedded intelligence and integration technologies that will directly optimize energy use in buildings and enable...

  8. Judgmental Forecasting of Operational Capabilities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hallin, Carina Antonia; Tveterås, Sigbjørn; Andersen, Torben Juul

    This paper explores a new judgmental forecasting indicator, the Employee Sensed Operational Capabilities (ESOC). The purpose of the ESOC is to establish a practical prediction tool that can provide early signals about changes in financial performance by gauging frontline employees’ sensing...

  9. Wavelet-based Evapotranspiration Forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bachour, R.; Maslova, I.; Ticlavilca, A. M.; McKee, M.; Walker, W.

    2012-12-01

    Providing a reliable short-term forecast of evapotranspiration (ET) could be a valuable element for improving the efficiency of irrigation water delivery systems. In the last decade, wavelet transform has become a useful technique for analyzing the frequency domain of hydrological time series. This study shows how wavelet transform can be used to access statistical properties of evapotranspiration. The objective of the research reported here is to use wavelet-based techniques to forecast ET up to 16 days ahead, which corresponds to the LANDSAT 7 overpass cycle. The properties of the ET time series, both physical and statistical, are examined in the time and frequency domains. We use the information about the energy decomposition in the wavelet domain to extract meaningful components that are used as inputs for ET forecasting models. Seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) and multivariate relevance vector machine (MVRVM) models are coupled with the wavelet-based multiresolution analysis (MRA) results and used to generate short-term ET forecasts. Accuracy of the models is estimated and model robustness is evaluated using the bootstrap approach.

  10. Valuing information from mesoscale forecasts

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kok, K.; Wichers Schreur, B.G.J.; Vogelenzang, D.

    2008-01-01

    The development of meso-gamma scale numerical weather prediction (NWP) models requires a substantial investment in research, development and computational resources. Traditional objective verification of deterministic model output fails to demonstrate the added value of high-resolution forecasts mad

  11. In Brief: Forecasting meningitis threats

    Science.gov (United States)

    Showstack, Randy

    2008-12-01

    The University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR), in conjunction with a team of health and weather organizations, has launched a project to provide weather forecasts to medical officials in Africa to help reduce outbreaks of meningitis. The forecasts will enable local health care providers to target vaccination programs more effectively. In 2009, meteorologists with the National Center for Atmospheric Research, which is managed by UCAR, will begin issuing 14-day forecasts of atmospheric conditions in Ghana. Later, UCAR plans to work closely with health experts from several African countries to design and test a decision support system to provide health officials with useful meteorological information. ``By targeting forecasts in regions where meningitis is a threat, we may be able to help vulnerable populations. Ultimately, we hope to build on this project and provide information to public health programs battling weather-related diseases in other parts of the world,'' said Rajul Pandya, director of UCAR's Community Building Program. Funding for the project comes from a $900,000 grant from Google.org, the philanthropic arm of the Internet search company.

  12. Understanding and Forecasting Ethnolinguistic Vitality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karan, Mark E.

    2011-01-01

    Forecasting of ethnolinguistic vitality can only be done within a well-functioning descriptive and explanatory model of the dynamics of language stability and shift. It is proposed that the Perceived Benefit Model of Language Shift, used with a taxonomy of language shift motivations, provides that model. The model, based on individual language…

  13. Fuzzy linear regression forecasting models

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    吴冲; 惠晓峰; 朱洪文

    2002-01-01

    The fuzzy linear regression forecasting model is deduced from the symmetric triangular fuzzy number.With the help of the degree of fitting and the measure of fuzziness, the determination of symmetric triangularfuzzy numbers is changed into a problem of solving linear programming.

  14. Forecasting for strengthening technological development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aida Mayerly Fúquene Montañez

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available Producing technological innovation is currently one of the key items in being more competitive. However, production sectors are facing great challenges, including analysing a large amount of available technological and market information regarding the en- vironment for strategic decision-making and being able to launch themselves onto the market with technological developments bringing the desired economic returns. Several tools for analysing information have emerged for reducing the uncertainty of tech- nological and market changes. This article provides conceptual and reflective elements so that forecasting strengthens technolo- gical development (TD. Forecasting is initially proposed as being one of the future methods of analysis having a significant im- pact on decision-making, mainly within the field of economics but which could be extrapolated to making a contribution to TD. The techniques which have been the recent instrument for collecting information for producing forecasting are described, as is work about the concept of surveillance/monitoring and the processes used for coordinating such approaches. It can thus be sta- ted that they provide an excellent basis for strengthening TD by providing platforms for new or improved developments in pro- cesses or products. Reflection about these aspects provides perspectives for implementing technological forecasting (TF in pro- duction systems so that they obtain efficient and concrete results via deterministic methods as input in decision-making in techno- logy regarding its middle- and long-term competitiveness.

  15. Forecasting Financial Time-Series using Artificial Market Models

    CERN Document Server

    Gupta, N; Johnson, N F; Gupta, Nachi; Hauser, Raphael; Johnson, Neil F.

    2005-01-01

    We discuss the theoretical machinery involved in predicting financial market movements using an artificial market model which has been trained on real financial data. This approach to market prediction - in particular, forecasting financial time-series by training a third-party or 'black box' game on the financial data itself -- was discussed by Johnson et al. in cond-mat/0105303 and cond-mat/0105258 and was based on some encouraging preliminary investigations of the dollar-yen exchange rate, various individual stocks, and stock market indices. However, the initial attempts lacked a clear formal methodology. Here we present a detailed methodology, using optimization techniques to build an estimate of the strategy distribution across the multi-trader population. In contrast to earlier attempts, we are able to present a systematic method for identifying 'pockets of predictability' in real-world markets. We find that as each pocket closes up, the black-box system needs to be 'reset' - which is equivalent to sayi...

  16. Evaluating the Rationality of Managers' Sales Forecasts

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    L.P. de Bruijn (Bert); Ph.H.B.F. Franses (Philip Hans)

    2011-01-01

    textabstractThis paper deals with the analysis and evaluation of sales forecasts of managers, given that it is unknown how they constructed their forecasts. Our goal is to find out whether these forecasts are rational. To examine deviations from rationality, we argue that one has to approximate how

  17. The value of feedback in forecasting competitions

    OpenAIRE

    George Athanasopoulos; Hyndman, Rob J.

    2011-01-01

    In this paper we challenge the traditional design used for forecasting competitions. We implement an online competition with a public leaderboard that provides instant feedback to competitors who are allowed to revise and resubmit forecasts. The results show that feedback significantly improves forecasting accuracy.

  18. Intermittent demand : Linking forecasting to inventory obsolescence

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Teunter, Ruud H.; Syntetos, Aris A.; Babai, M. Zied

    2011-01-01

    The standard method to forecast intermittent demand is that by Croston. This method is available in ERP-type solutions such as SAP and specialised forecasting software packages (e.g. Forecast Pro), and often applied in practice. It uses exponential smoothing to separately update the estimated demand

  19. Probabilistic Forecasting of the Wave Energy Flux

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pinson, Pierre; Reikard, G.; Bidlot, J.-R.

    2012-01-01

    markets. A methodology for the probabilistic forecasting of the wave energy flux is introduced, based on a log-Normal assumption for the shape of predictive densities. It uses meteorological forecasts (from the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts – ECMWF) and local wave measurements...

  20. Beat the Instructor: An Introductory Forecasting Game

    Science.gov (United States)

    Snider, Brent R.; Eliasson, Janice B.

    2013-01-01

    This teaching brief describes a 30-minute game where student groups compete in-class in an introductory time-series forecasting exercise. The students are challenged to "beat the instructor" who competes using forecasting techniques that will be subsequently taught. All forecasts are graphed prior to revealing the randomly generated…

  1. Forecasting effects of global warming on biodiversity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Botkin, D.B.; Saxe, H.; Araújo, M.B.;

    2007-01-01

    The demand for accurate forecasting of the effects of global warming on biodiversity is growing, but current methods for forecasting have limitations. In this article, we compare and discuss the different uses of four forecasting methods: (1) models that consider species individually, (2) niche...

  2. What drives the Quotes of Earnings Forecasters?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    L.P. de Bruijn (Bert); Ph.H.B.F. Franses (Philip Hans)

    2012-01-01

    textabstractEarnings forecasts can be useful for investment decisions. Research on earnings forecasts has focused on forecast performance in relation to firm characteristics, on categorizing the analysts into groups with similar behaviour and on the effect of an earnings announcement by thefirm on f

  3. A Wind Forecasting System for Energy Application

    Science.gov (United States)

    Courtney, Jennifer; Lynch, Peter; Sweeney, Conor

    2010-05-01

    Accurate forecasting of available energy is crucial for the efficient management and use of wind power in the national power grid. With energy output critically dependent upon wind strength there is a need to reduce the errors associated wind forecasting. The objective of this research is to get the best possible wind forecasts for the wind energy industry. To achieve this goal, three methods are being applied. First, a mesoscale numerical weather prediction (NWP) model called WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) is being used to predict wind values over Ireland. Currently, a gird resolution of 10km is used and higher model resolutions are being evaluated to establish whether they are economically viable given the forecast skill improvement they produce. Second, the WRF model is being used in conjunction with ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) ensemble forecasts to produce a probabilistic weather forecasting product. Due to the chaotic nature of the atmosphere, a single, deterministic weather forecast can only have limited skill. The ECMWF ensemble methods produce an ensemble of 51 global forecasts, twice a day, by perturbing initial conditions of a 'control' forecast which is the best estimate of the initial state of the atmosphere. This method provides an indication of the reliability of the forecast and a quantitative basis for probabilistic forecasting. The limitation of ensemble forecasting lies in the fact that the perturbed model runs behave differently under different weather patterns and each model run is equally likely to be closest to the observed weather situation. Models have biases, and involve assumptions about physical processes and forcing factors such as underlying topography. Third, Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) is being applied to the output from the ensemble forecasts in order to statistically post-process the results and achieve a better wind forecasting system. BMA is a promising technique that will offer calibrated

  4. Application of Defense Technology Commonly Used in Boxing Match

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Zhixiao Li[1; Jianjun Liu[2

    2015-01-01

    Boxing defense technology is a kind of techniques to prevent the opponent from attacking successfully. Boxing is a kind of sports that needs close cooperation between attack and defense. Attack is used for defense, where there is no attack, there will be no defense, and vice versa. Defense technology is the foundation of attack technology, therefore, defense is of vital importance in boxing match.

  5. 76 FR 41411 - Group E Post Office Box Service

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-07-14

    ... PO Box customers are assigned the smallest available box that reasonably accommodates their daily mail volume. b. Eligibility for Group E PO Boxes does not extend to: 1. Individual tenants, contractors... Federal Register proposed rule (75 FR 71642-71643) to clarify eligibility, simplify the standards,...

  6. 47 CFR 90.241 - Radio call box operations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... remains on for a period in excess of three minutes. The automatic cutoff system must be designed so the... Safety Pool for highway call box systems subject to the following requirements: (1) Call box transmitters... effective radiated power (ERP). (3) The height of a call box antenna may not exceed 6.1 meters (20...

  7. 49 CFR 230.103 - Tender roller bearing journal boxes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Tender roller bearing journal boxes. 230.103... Locomotives and Tenders Running Gear § 230.103 Tender roller bearing journal boxes. Tender roller bearing journal boxes shall be maintained in a safe and suitable condition....

  8. 49 CFR 230.102 - Tender plain bearing journal boxes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Tender plain bearing journal boxes. 230.102... Locomotives and Tenders Running Gear § 230.102 Tender plain bearing journal boxes. Plain bearing journal boxes... expected to damage the bearing; or have a detrimental effect on the lubrication of the journal and...

  9. Forecasting Covariance Matrices: A Mixed Frequency Approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Halbleib, Roxana; Voev, Valeri

    This paper proposes a new method for forecasting covariance matrices of financial returns. The model mixes volatility forecasts from a dynamic model of daily realized volatilities estimated with high-frequency data with correlation forecasts based on daily data. This new approach allows...... for flexible dependence patterns for volatilities and correlations, and can be applied to covariance matrices of large dimensions. The separate modeling of volatility and correlation forecasts considerably reduces the estimation and measurement error implied by the joint estimation and modeling of covariance...... matrix dynamics. Our empirical results show that the new mixing approach provides superior forecasts compared to multivariate volatility specifications using single sources of information....

  10. Online load forecasting for supermarket refrigeration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bacher, Peder; Madsen, Henrik; Nielsen, Henrik Aalborg

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a study of models for forecasting the load for supermarket refrigeration. The data used for building the forecasting models consists of load measurements, local climate measurements and weather forecasts. The load measurements are from a supermarket located in a village...... in Denmark. Every hour the hourly load for refrigeration for the following 42 hours is forecasted. The forecast models are time adaptive linear time-series models. The dynamic relations between the inputs and the load is modeled by simple transfer functions. The system operates in two regimes: one...

  11. Performance Analysis of Hybrid Forecasting Model in Stock Market Forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mahesh S. Khadka

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents performance analysis of hybrid model comprise of concordance and Genetic Programming (GP to forecast financial market with some existing models. This scheme can be used for in depth analysis of stock market. Different measures of concordances such as Kendall’s Tau, Gini’s Mean Difference, Spearman’s Rho, and weak interpretation of concordance are used to search for the pattern in past that look similar to present. Genetic Programming is then used to match the past trend to presenttrend as close as possible. Then Genetic Program estimates what will happen next based on what had happened next. The concept is validated using financial time series data (S&P 500 and NASDAQ indices as sample data sets. The forecasted result is then compared with standard ARIMA model and other model to analyse its performance.

  12. How to Improve the SPF Forecasts?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bratu (Simionescu Mihaela

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available The reduction of forecasts uncertainty is one of the major goal to be achieved in forecasting process. This implies the improvement of predictions accuracy. In this study, many types of forecasts of the annual rate of change for the HICP for EU were developed, their accuracy was evaluated and compared with the accuracy of SPF predictions. All the proposed predictions for January 2010-May 2012 (those based on a random walk developed for 1997-2009, combined forecasts, the median and the mean of forecasts, predictions based on different econometric models that take into account the previous SPF forecasts were not more accurate than the naïve forecasts or SPF ones. A considerably improvement of the accuracy was gotten for predictions based on mean error of SPF expectations for 1997-2009 and the previous registered value. This empirical strategy of building more accurate forecasts was better than the classical theoretical approaches from literature, but it is still less accurate than the naïve forecasts that could be made for UE inflation rate. So, the forecasts based on a simple econometric model as the random walk from the naïve approach are the most accurate, conclusion that is in accordance with the latest researches in literature and with one of the essential condition in forecasting theory.

  13. Fatal exit the automotive black box debate

    CERN Document Server

    Kowalick, Tom

    2005-01-01

    "Fatal Exit: The Automotive Black Box Debate cuts through thirty years of political wrangling and institutional biases to provide an argument for the Motor Vehicle Event Data Recorder (MVEDR). This automotive equivalent of an airplane's flight recorder or black box is intended to solve the mysteries of car crashes and improve the safety of our roads. The reader is taken inside the automotive industry and the government highway safety establishment to foster an understanding of the politics and the positions on all sides of this safety debate. The author takes an unbiased approach, chronologically presenting each argument and uncovering the agendas and mandates of each of the stakeholders." "This publication is essential reading for all consumers who need to have their voices heard on this critical issue, as well as for attorneys, public safety advocates, public policy administrators, engineers, automotive professionals, journalists, and insurance executives."--Jacket.

  14. The Central Nervous System of Box Jellyfish

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Garm, Anders Lydik; Ekström, Peter

    2008-01-01

    of behaviors in the box jellyfish such as obstacle avoidance and navigation. The need to process the visual information and turn it into the appropriate behavior puts strong demands on the nervous system of box jellyfish, which appears more elaborate than in other cnidarians. Here, the central part...... of this nervous system is described. Each rhopalium holds a separate part of the CNS with 1,000 nerve cells and a large amount of neuropil. The rhopalial nervous system has several subsystems defined by the anatomy, location, and immunocytochemistry of the cells. Most of the subsystems connect to one or more...... of the eye types, and it is likely that the rhopalial nervous system accounts for most of the visual processing. The major part of the CNS is made up of a ring nerve encircling the bell shaped body. The ring nerve holds around 10,000 cells and is directly connected to all four rhopalial nervous systems...

  15. Novel grey forecast model and its application

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    丁洪发; 舒双焰; 段献忠

    2003-01-01

    The advancement of grey system theory provides an effective analytic tool for power system load fore-cast. All kinds of presently available grey forecast models can be well used to deal with the short-term load fore-cast. However, they make big errors for medium or long-term load forecasts, and the load that does not satisfythe approximate exponential increasing law in particular. A novel grey forecast model that is capable of distin-guishing the increasing law of load is adopted to forecast electric power consumption (EPC) of Shanghai. Theresults show that this model can be used to greatly improve the forecast precision of EPC for a secondary industryor the whole society.

  16. Climate Time Series Analysis and Forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Young, P. C.; Fildes, R.

    2009-04-01

    This paper will discuss various aspects of climate time series data analysis, modelling and forecasting being carried out at Lancaster. This will include state-dependent parameter, nonlinear, stochastic modelling of globally averaged atmospheric carbon dioxide; the computation of emission strategies based on modern control theory; and extrapolative time series benchmark forecasts of annual average temperature, both global and local. The key to the forecasting evaluation will be the iterative estimation of forecast error based on rolling origin comparisons, as recommended in the forecasting research literature. The presentation will conclude with with a comparison of the time series forecasts with forecasts produced from global circulation models and a discussion of the implications for climate modelling research.

  17. Effective Feature Preprocessing for Time Series Forecasting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhao, Junhua; Dong, Zhaoyang; Xu, Zhao

    2006-01-01

    Time series forecasting is an important area in data mining research. Feature preprocessing techniques have significant influence on forecasting accuracy, therefore are essential in a forecasting model. Although several feature preprocessing techniques have been applied in time series forecasting......, there is so far no systematic research to study and compare their performance. How to select effective techniques of feature preprocessing in a forecasting model remains a problem. In this paper, the authors conduct a comprehensive study of existing feature preprocessing techniques to evaluate their empirical...... performance in time series forecasting. It is demonstrated in our experiment that, effective feature preprocessing can significantly enhance forecasting accuracy. This research can be a useful guidance for researchers on effectively selecting feature preprocessing techniques and integrating them with time...

  18. Univariate time series forecasting algorithm validation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ismail, Suzilah; Zakaria, Rohaiza; Muda, Tuan Zalizam Tuan

    2014-12-01

    Forecasting is a complex process which requires expert tacit knowledge in producing accurate forecast values. This complexity contributes to the gaps between end users and expert. Automating this process by using algorithm can act as a bridge between them. Algorithm is a well-defined rule for solving a problem. In this study a univariate time series forecasting algorithm was developed in JAVA and validated using SPSS and Excel. Two set of simulated data (yearly and non-yearly); several univariate forecasting techniques (i.e. Moving Average, Decomposition, Exponential Smoothing, Time Series Regressions and ARIMA) and recent forecasting process (such as data partition, several error measures, recursive evaluation and etc.) were employed. Successfully, the results of the algorithm tally with the results of SPSS and Excel. This algorithm will not just benefit forecaster but also end users that lacking in depth knowledge of forecasting process.

  19. Forecasting Monthly Prices of Japanese Logs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tetsuya Michinaka

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Forecasts of prices can help industries in their risk management. This is especially true for Japanese logs, which experience sharp fluctuations in price. In this research, the authors used an exponential smoothing method (ETS and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA models to forecast the monthly prices of domestic logs of three of the most important species in Japan: sugi (Japanese cedar, Cryptomeria japonica D. Don, hinoki (Japanese cypress, Chamaecyparis obtusa (Sieb. et Zucc. Endl., and karamatsu (Japanese larch, Larix kaempferi (Lamb. Carr.. For the 12-month forecasting periods, forecasting intervals of 80% and 95% were given. By measuring the accuracy of forecasts of 12- and 6-month forecasting periods, it was found that ARIMA gave better results than did the ETS in the majority of cases. However, the combined method of averaging ETS and ARIMA forecasts gave the best results for hinoki in several cases.

  20. The gradient flow in a twisted box

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ramos, Alberto [Deutsches Elektronen-Synchrotron (DESY), Zeuthen (Germany). John von Neumann-Inst. fuer Computing NIC

    2013-08-15

    We study the perturbative behavior of the gradient flow in a twisted box. We apply this information to define a running coupling using the energy density of the flow field. We study the step-scaling function and the size of cutoff effects in SU(2) pure gauge theory. We conclude that the twisted gradient flow running coupling scheme is a valid strategy for step-scaling purposes due to the relatively mild cutoff effects and high precision.

  1. Adaptive Techniques to find Optimal Planar Boxes

    CERN Document Server

    Barbay, J; Pérez-Lantero, P

    2012-01-01

    Given a set $P$ of $n$ planar points, two axes and a real-valued score function $f()$ on subsets of $P$, the Optimal Planar Box problem consists in finding a box (i.e. axis-aligned rectangle) $H$ maximizing $f(H\\cap P)$. We consider the case where $f()$ is monotone decomposable, i.e. there exists a composition function $g()$ monotone in its two arguments such that $f(A)=g(f(A_1),f(A_2))$ for every subset $A\\subseteq P$ and every partition $\\{A_1,A_2\\}$ of $A$. In this context we propose a solution for the Optimal Planar Box problem which performs in the worst case $O(n^2\\lg n)$ score compositions and coordinate comparisons, and much less on other classes of instances defined by various measures of difficulty. A side result of its own interest is a fully dynamic \\textit{MCS Splay tree} data structure supporting insertions and deletions with the \\emph{dynamic finger} property, improving upon previous results [Cort\\'es et al., J.Alg. 2009].

  2. T-box factors determine cardiac design.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoogaars, W M H; Barnett, P; Moorman, A F M; Christoffels, V M

    2007-03-01

    The heart of higher vertebrates is a structurally complicated multi-chambered pump that contracts synchronously. For its proper function a number of distinct integrated components have to be generated, including force-generating compartments, unidirectional valves, septa and a system in charge of the initiation and coordinated propagation of the depolarizing impulse over the heart. Not surprisingly, a large number of regulating factors are involved in these processes that act in complex and intertwined pathways to regulate the activity of target genes responsible for morphogenesis and function. The finding that mutations in T-box transcription factor-encoding genes in humans lead to congenital heart defects has focused attention on the importance of this family of regulators in heart development. Functional and genetic analyses in a variety of divergent species has demonstrated the critical roles of multiple T-box factor gene family members, including Tbx11, -2, -3, -5, -18 and -20, in the patterning, recruitment, specification, differentiation and growth processes underlying formation and integration of the heart components. Insight into the roles of T-box factors in these processes will enhance our understanding of heart formation and the underlying molecular regulatory pathways. PMID:17380306

  3. Changes in position and quality of preferred nest box: effects on nest box use by laying hens

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Riber, Anja Brinch; Nielsen, Birte L.

    2013-01-01

    Using laying hens, we investigated whether position of a nest box, both within the pen and relative to other nest boxes, influenced the preference for a nest box, and how a sudden and marked change to the preferred box influenced the use of nest boxes by the hens. Groups (n=12) of 15 Isa Warren...... hens were housed in pens, each with five identical nest boxes in different positions: Two single (in a corner or not) and a triplet of nest boxes (one of which in a corner). The use of nest boxes was determined by the number of eggs laid daily in each box. Three experiments, each lasting 10 days, were...... carried out. First, the undisturbed use of each of the nest box types was investigated, and a strong preference (P<0.001) was found for single nest boxes in a corner, with 62% of the nest box eggs laid there. Second, each of the hen groups was moved to another pen allocated at random, and where the...

  4. Airfreight forecasting methodology and results

    Science.gov (United States)

    1978-01-01

    A series of econometric behavioral equations was developed to explain and forecast the evolution of airfreight traffic demand for the total U.S. domestic airfreight system, the total U.S. international airfreight system, and the total scheduled international cargo traffic carried by the top 44 foreign airlines. The basic explanatory variables used in these macromodels were the real gross national products of the countries involved and a measure of relative transportation costs. The results of the econometric analysis reveal that the models explain more than 99 percent of the historical evolution of freight traffic. The long term traffic forecasts generated with these models are based on scenarios of the likely economic outlook in the United States and 31 major foreign countries.

  5. Forecasting wind speed financial return

    CERN Document Server

    D'Amico, Guglielmo; Prattico, Flavio

    2013-01-01

    The prediction of wind speed is very important when dealing with the production of energy through wind turbines. In this paper, we show a new nonparametric model, based on semi-Markov chains, to predict wind speed. Particularly we use an indexed semi-Markov model that has been shown to be able to reproduce accurately the statistical behavior of wind speed. The model is used to forecast, one step ahead, wind speed. In order to check the validity of the model we show, as indicator of goodness, the root mean square error and mean absolute error between real data and predicted ones. We also compare our forecasting results with those of a persistence model. At last, we show an application of the model to predict financial indicators like the Internal Rate of Return, Duration and Convexity.

  6. Probabilistic Downscaling Methods for Developing Categorical Streamflow Forecasts using Climate Forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mazrooei, A. H.

    2015-12-01

    Statistical information from climate forecast ensembles can be utilized in developing probabilistic streamflow forecasts for providing the uncertainty in streamflow forecast potential. This study examines the use of Multinomial Logistic Regression (MLR) in downscaling the probabilistic information from the large-scale climate forecast ensembles into a point-scale categorical streamflow forecasts. Performance of MLR in developing one-month lead categorical forecasts is evaluated for various river basins over the US Sunbelt. Comparison of MLR with the estimated categorical forecasts from Principle Component Regression (PCR) method under both cross-validation and split-sampling validation reveals that in general the forecasts from MLR has better performance and lower Rank Probability Score (RPS) compared to the PCR forecasts. In addition, MLR performs better than PCR method particularly in arid basins that exhibit strong skewness in seasonal flows with records of distinct dry years. A theoretical underpinning for this improved performance of MLR is also provided.

  7. Uncertainty in wind energy forecasting

    OpenAIRE

    Moehrlen, Corinna

    2004-01-01

    Wind energy is the energy source that contributes most to the renewable energy mix of European countries. While there are good wind resources throughout Europe, the intermittency of the wind represents a major problem for the deployment of wind energy into the electricity networks. To ensure grid security a Transmission System Operator needs today for each kilowatt of wind energy either an equal amount of spinning reserve or a forecasting system that can predict the amount of energy that will...

  8. Forecasting Dynamic Market Share Relationships

    OpenAIRE

    Terui, Nobuhiko

    1997-01-01

    In market share analysis, it is well recognized that we have often inadmissible predicted marketshare, which means that some of predictors take the values outside the range [0, 1] and the totalsum of predicted shares is not always one, so called "logical inconsistency". In this article, basedon Bayesian VAR model, I propose a dynamic market share model with logical consistency. Theproposed method makes it possible to forecast not only the values of market share by themselves,but also various ...

  9. Effectiveness of box trainers in laparoscopic training

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dhariwal Anender

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Rationale and Objectives: Various devices are used to aid in the education of laparoscopic skills ranging from simple box trainers to sophisticated virtual reality trainers. Virtual reality system is an advanced and effective training method, however it is yet to be adopted in India due to its cost and the advanced technology required for it. Therefore, box trainers are being used to train laparoscopic skills. Hence this study was undertaken to assess the overall effectiveness of the box-training course. Study Procedure: The study was conducted during six-day laparoscopic skills training workshops held during 2006. Twenty five surgeons; age range of 26 to 45 years, of either sex, who had not performed laparoscopic surgery before; attending the workshop were evaluated. Each participant was given a list of tasks to perform before beginning the box-training course on day one and was evaluated quantitatively by rating the successful completion of each test. Evaluation began when the subject placed the first tool into the cannula and ended with task completion. Two evaluation methods used to score the subject, including a global rating scale and a task-specific checklist. After the subject completed all sessions of the workshop, they were asked to perform the same tasks and were evaluated in the same manner. For each task completed by the subjects, the difference in the scores between the second and first runs were calculated and interpreted as an improvement as a percentage of the initial score. Statistical Analysis: Wilcoxon matched-paired signed-ranks test was applied to find out the statistical significance of the results obtained. Results: The mean percentage improvement in scores for both the tasks, using global rating scale, was 44.5% + 6.930 (Mean + SD. For task 1, using the global rating scale mean percentage improvement was 49.4% + 7.948 (Mean + SD. For task 2, mean percentage improvement using global rating scale was 39.6% + 10.4 (Mean

  10. Earthquake forecast via neutrino tomography

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WANG Bin; CHEN Ya-Zheng; LI Xue-Qian

    2011-01-01

    We discuss the possibility of forecasting earthquakes by means of (anti)neutrino tomography. An- tineutrinos emitted from reactors are used as a probe. As the antineutrinos traverse through a region prone to earthquakes, observable variations in the matter effect on the antineutrino oscillation would provide a tomog- raphy of the vicinity of the region. In this preliminary work, we adopt a simplified model for the geometrical profile and matter density in a fault zone. We calculate the survival probability of electron antineutrinos for cases without and with an anomalous accumulation of electrons which can be considered as a clear signal of the coming earthquake, at the geological region with a fault zone, and find that the variation may reach as much as 3% for ν emitted from a reactor. The case for a ν beam from a neutrino factory is also investigated, and it is noted that, because of the typically high energy associated with such neutrinos, the oscillation length is too large and the resultant variation is not practically observable. Our conclusion is that with the present reactor facilities and detection techniques, it is still a difficult task to make an earthquake forecast using such a scheme, though it seems to be possible from a theoretical point of view while ignoring some uncertainties. However, with the development of the geology, especially the knowledge about the fault zone, and with the improvement of the detection techniques, etc., there is hope that a medium-term earthquake forecast would be feasible.

  11. Forecast Method of Solar Irradiance with Just-In-Time Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suzuki, Takanobu; Goto, Yusuke; Terazono, Takahiro; Wakao, Shinji; Oozeki, Takashi

    PV power output mainly depends on the solar irradiance which is affected by various meteorological factors. So, it is required to predict solar irradiance in the future for the efficient operation of PV systems. In this paper, we develop a novel approach for solar irradiance forecast, in which we introduce to combine the black-box model (JIT Modeling) with the physical model (GPV data). We investigate the predictive accuracy of solar irradiance over wide controlled-area of each electric power company by utilizing the measured data on the 44 observation points throughout Japan offered by JMA and the 64 points around Kanto by NEDO. Finally, we propose the application forecast method of solar irradiance to the point which is difficulty in compiling the database. And we consider the influence of different GPV default time on solar irradiance prediction.

  12. Communicating uncertainty in hydrological forecasts: mission impossible?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramos, Maria-Helena; Mathevet, Thibault; Thielen, Jutta; Pappenberger, Florian

    2010-05-01

    Cascading uncertainty in meteo-hydrological modelling chains for forecasting and integrated flood risk assessment is an essential step to improve the quality of hydrological forecasts. Although the best methodology to quantify the total predictive uncertainty in hydrology is still debated, there is a common agreement that one must avoid uncertainty misrepresentation and miscommunication, as well as misinterpretation of information by users. Several recent studies point out that uncertainty, when properly explained and defined, is no longer unwelcome among emergence response organizations, users of flood risk information and the general public. However, efficient communication of uncertain hydro-meteorological forecasts is far from being a resolved issue. This study focuses on the interpretation and communication of uncertain hydrological forecasts based on (uncertain) meteorological forecasts and (uncertain) rainfall-runoff modelling approaches to decision-makers such as operational hydrologists and water managers in charge of flood warning and scenario-based reservoir operation. An overview of the typical flow of uncertainties and risk-based decisions in hydrological forecasting systems is presented. The challenges related to the extraction of meaningful information from probabilistic forecasts and the test of its usefulness in assisting operational flood forecasting are illustrated with the help of two case-studies: 1) a study on the use and communication of probabilistic flood forecasting within the European Flood Alert System; 2) a case-study on the use of probabilistic forecasts by operational forecasters from the hydroelectricity company EDF in France. These examples show that attention must be paid to initiatives that promote or reinforce the active participation of expert forecasters in the forecasting chain. The practice of face-to-face forecast briefings, focusing on sharing how forecasters interpret, describe and perceive the model output forecasted

  13. Probabilistic online runoff forecasting for urban catchments using inputs from rain gauges as well as statically and dynamically adjusted weather radar

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Löwe, Roland; Thorndahl, Søren; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen;

    2014-01-01

    We investigate the application of rainfall observations and forecasts from rain gauges and weather radar as input to operational urban runoff forecasting models. We apply lumped rainfall runoff models implemented in a stochastic grey-box modelling framework. Different model structures...... are considered that account for the spatial distribution of rainfall in different degrees of detail. Considering two urban example catchments, we show that statically adjusted radar rainfall input improves the quality of probabilistic runoff forecasts as compared to input based on rain gauge observations......, although the characteristics of these radar measurements are rather different from those on the ground. Data driven runoff forecasting models can to some extent adapt to bias of the rainfall input by model parameter calibration and state-updating. More detailed structures in these models provide improved...

  14. Predicting the Heat Consumption in District Heating Systems using Meteorological Forecasts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Henrik Aalborg, orlov 31.07.2008; Madsen, Henrik

    to which the heat is supplied this transition is smooth. By simulation, combined with theory known from the literature, it is shown that it is crucial to use the actual meteorological forecasts and not the observations of climate when estimating the parameters of the model. To our knowledge......, this is somewhat contrary to practice. The work presented is a demonstration of the value of the so called gray box approach where theoretical knowledge about the system under consideration is combined with information from measurements performed on the system in order to obtain a mathematical description...

  15. Forecasting Space Weather from Magnetograms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Falconer, David A.; Moore, Ronald L.; Barghouty, Abdulnasser F.; Khazanov, Igor

    2012-01-01

    Large flares and fast CMEs are the drivers of the most severe space weather including Solar Energetic Particle Events (SEP Events). Large flares and their co-produced CMEs are powered by the explosive release of free magnetic energy stored in non-potential magnetic fields of sunspot active regions. The free energy is stored in and released from the low-beta regime of the active region s magnetic field above the photosphere, in the chromosphere and low corona. From our work over the past decade and from similar work of several other groups, it is now well established that (1) a proxy of the free magnetic energy stored above the photosphere can be measured from photospheric magnetograms, maps of the measured field in the photosphere, and (2) an active region s rate of production of major CME/flare eruptions in the coming day or so is strongly correlated with its present measured value of the free-energy proxy. These results have led us to use the large database of SOHO/MDI full-disk magnetograms spanning Solar Cycle 23 to obtain empirical forecasting curves that from an active region s present measured value of the free-energy proxy give the active region s expected rates of production of major flares, CMEs, fast CMEs, and SEP Events in the coming day or so (Falconer et al 2011, Space Weather, 9, S04003). For each type of event, the expected rate is readily converted to the chance that the active region will produce such an event in any given forward time window of a day or so. If the chance is small enough (e.g. forecast is All Clear for that type of event. We will present these forecasting curves and demonstrate the accuracy of their forecasts. In addition, we will show that the forecasts for major flares and fast CMEs can be made significantly more accurate by taking into account not only the value of the free energy proxy but also the active region s recent productivity of major flares; specifically, whether the active region has produced a major flare (GOES

  16. DFBX boxes - electrical and cryogenic distribution boxes for the superconducting magnets in the LHC straight sections

    CERN Document Server

    Zbasnik, J P; Gourlay, S A; Green, M A; Hafalia, A Q; Kajiyama, Y; Knolls, M J; La Mantia, R F; Rasson, J E; Reavill, D; Turner, W C

    2003-01-01

    DFBX distribution boxes provide cryogenic and electrical services to superconducting quadrupoles and to a superconducting dipole at either end of four of the long straight sections in the LHC. The DFBX boxes also provide instrumentation and quench protection to the magnets. Current for the quadrupole and the dipole magnet is delivered through leads that combine HTS and gas cooled leads. Current for the 600 A and 120 A correction magnets is provided by pure gas-cooled leads. The bus bars from the leads to the magnets pass through low leak-rate lambda plugs between 1.8 K and 4.4 K. The heat leak into the 1.9 K region from the liquid helium tank is determined by the design of the lambda plugs. This paper describes the DFBX boxes and their function of delivering current and instrumentation signals to the magnets. (2 refs).

  17. 49 CFR 178.512 - Standards for steel or aluminum boxes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 2 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Standards for steel or aluminum boxes. 178.512... aluminum boxes. (a) The following are identification codes for steel or aluminum boxes: (1) 4A for a steel box; and (2) 4B for an aluminum box. (b) Construction requirements for steel or aluminum boxes are...

  18. Business intelligence from social media: a study from the VAST Box Office Challenge.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Yafeng; Wang, Feng; Maciejewski, Ross

    2014-01-01

    With over 16 million tweets per hour, 600 new blog posts per minute, and 400 million active users on Facebook, businesses have begun searching for ways to turn real-time consumer-based posts into actionable intelligence. The goal is to extract information from this noisy, unstructured data and use it for trend analysis and prediction. Current practices support the idea that visual analytics (VA) can help enable the effective analysis of such data. However, empirical evidence demonstrating the effectiveness of a VA solution is still lacking. A proposed VA toolkit extracts data from Bitly and Twitter to predict movie revenue and ratings. Results from the 2013 VAST Box Office Challenge demonstrate the benefit of an interactive environment for predictive analysis, compared to a purely statistical modeling approach. The VA approach used by the toolkit is generalizable to other domains involving social media data, such as sales forecasting and advertisement analysis. PMID:25248200

  19. Business intelligence from social media: a study from the VAST Box Office Challenge.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Yafeng; Wang, Feng; Maciejewski, Ross

    2014-01-01

    With over 16 million tweets per hour, 600 new blog posts per minute, and 400 million active users on Facebook, businesses have begun searching for ways to turn real-time consumer-based posts into actionable intelligence. The goal is to extract information from this noisy, unstructured data and use it for trend analysis and prediction. Current practices support the idea that visual analytics (VA) can help enable the effective analysis of such data. However, empirical evidence demonstrating the effectiveness of a VA solution is still lacking. A proposed VA toolkit extracts data from Bitly and Twitter to predict movie revenue and ratings. Results from the 2013 VAST Box Office Challenge demonstrate the benefit of an interactive environment for predictive analysis, compared to a purely statistical modeling approach. The VA approach used by the toolkit is generalizable to other domains involving social media data, such as sales forecasting and advertisement analysis.

  20. Agrometeorological models for forecasting the qualitative attributes of "Valência" oranges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moreto, Victor Brunini; Rolim, Glauco de Souza; Zacarin, Bruno Gustavo; Vanin, Ana Paula; de Souza, Leone Maia; Latado, Rodrigo Rocha

    2016-09-01

    Forecasting is the act of predicting unknown future events using available data. Estimating, in contrast, uses data to simulate an actual condition. Brazil is the world's largest producer of oranges, and the state of São Paulo is the largest producer in Brazil. The "Valência" orange is among the most common cultivars in the state. We analyzed the influence of monthly meteorological variables during the growth cycle of Valência oranges grafted onto "Rangpur" lime rootstocks (VACR) for São Paulo, and developed monthly agrometeorological models for forecasting the qualitative attributes of VACR in mature orchard. For fruits per box for all months, the best accuracy was of 0.84 % and the minimum forecast range of 4 months. For the relation between °brix and juice acidity (RATIO) the best accuracy was of 0.69 % and the minimum forecast range of 5 months. Minimum, mean and maximum air temperatures, and relative evapotranspiration were the most important variables in the models.