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Sample records for box jenkins forecasting

  1. Preliminary analysis on hybrid Box-Jenkins - GARCH modeling in forecasting gold price

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yaziz, Siti Roslindar; Azizan, Noor Azlinna; Ahmad, Maizah Hura; Zakaria, Roslinazairimah; Agrawal, Manju; Boland, John

    2015-02-01

    Gold has been regarded as a valuable precious metal and the most popular commodity as a healthy return investment. Hence, the analysis and prediction of gold price become very significant to investors. This study is a preliminary analysis on gold price and its volatility that focuses on the performance of hybrid Box-Jenkins models together with GARCH in analyzing and forecasting gold price. The Box-Cox formula is used as the data transformation method due to its potential best practice in normalizing data, stabilizing variance and reduces heteroscedasticity using 41-year daily gold price data series starting 2nd January 1973. Our study indicates that the proposed hybrid model ARIMA-GARCH with t-innovation can be a new potential approach in forecasting gold price. This finding proves the strength of GARCH in handling volatility in the gold price as well as overcomes the non-linear limitation in the Box-Jenkins modeling.

  2. Prévision de ventes mensuelles de produits pétroliers : une application de la méthodologie Box-Jenkins Forecasting Monthly Sales of Petroleum Products: an Application of the Box-Jenkins Methodology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gasnier Y.

    2006-11-01

    Full Text Available Après avoir exposé le problème de prévision qui se posait à la société Elf France, et présenté sa généralisation à la plupart des entreprises, nous définirons la place que tient cette étude dans le vaste débat sur la prévision à court terme actuelle. La recherche d'une méthode appropriée pour la résolution du problème posé passe d'abord par une synthèse de la littérature : après un classement méthodologique des techniques, une analyse critique permet d'effectuer le choix de la méthode Box-Jenkins dont nous proposons une présentation sommaire. La seconde grande partie concerne l'application pratique relative à la prévision et au suivi de nos six séries pétrolières : après avoir résolu le problème par une démarche séquentielle, intégrant progressivement les développements de complexité croissante, une analyse critique évalue les résultats obtenus et propose une extension prometteuse des travaux ainsi que les grands axes de développement pour l'avenir. En dernier lieu, la conclusion apporte sa contribution au débat sur la modélisation à court terme actuelle et définit le rôle pivot que devrait jouer la méthodologie de Box et Jenkins. This article contains two main parts. The first one is theoretical, and the second one is practical. After describing the forecasting problems faced by Elf France and its generalization to most companies, the position this study occupies in the vast debate on current short-term forecasting is defined. The search for a suitable method for solving the problem raised first goes via a synthesis of the literature. After making a methodological classification of techniques, a critical analysis can be used to choose the Box-Jenkins methods which is outlined. The second main part is relative to the practical application concerning forecasting and the following of our six petroleum series. After the problem has been solved by a sequential procedure, progressively integrating

  3. Box & Jenkins Model Identification:A Comparison of Methodologies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Augusta Soares Machado

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper focuses on a presentation of a comparison of a neuro-fuzzy back propagation network and Forecast automatic model Identification to identify automatically Box & Jenkins non seasonal models.Recently some combinations of neural networks and fuzzy logic technologies have being used to deal with uncertain and subjective problems. It is concluded on the basis of the obtained results that this type of approach is very powerful to be used.

  4. Previsão de demanda: uma aplicação dos modelos Box-Jenkins na área de assistência técnica de computadores pessoais Demand forecasting: an application of the Box-Jenkins models in the technical assistance of personal computer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liane Werner

    2003-04-01

    Full Text Available A previsão de demanda é uma atividade importante para auxiliar na determinação dos recursos necessários para a empresa. Neste artigo, a metodologia de Box-Jenkins foi utilizada para analisar dados históricos de uma empresa de assistência técnica de computadores pessoais e obter previsões do número de atendimentos. A empresa estudada apresenta três tipos de clientes diferenciados: contratos, garantia e avulsos. Como cada segmento de clientes tem suas peculiaridades, a previsão de demanda foi direcionada a cada tipo, buscando representar o comportamento de tendência e a sazonalidade por meio dos modelos de Box-Jenkins. A obtenção dos modelos mais adequados foi baseada na análise de gráficos e em testes estatísticos próprios da metodologia, os quais subsidiaram a decisão de adotar o modelo AR(1 para prever o número de atendimentos dos clientes tipo contrato, o modelo ARIMA(2,1,0 para os clientes tipo garantia e um modelo sazonal SARIMA(0,1,0(0,1,112 para os clientes tipo avulsos.Demand forecasting is an important tool to aid on the determination of necessary resources of a given company. In this paper, the Box-Jenkins methodology was applied to analyze historical data of a personal computer repair company and provide a forecast for the number of service calls. The company studied presents three segments of clients: contracts, warranty, and on-call. As each client has it own characteristics, in order to better represent tendency and seasonality behavior through the Box-Jenkins models, a specific forecasting model was developed for each segment. The choice of the optimum models were based into graphic analysis and statistical tests, which lead to the decision of adopting the AR(1 model to foresee the number of contract clients, the ARIMA(2,1,0 model for warranty clients and the SARIMA(0,1,0(0,1,112 seasonal model for on-call clients.

  5. Time Series Analysis of JEPX Spot Price with the Box-Jenkins Method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nishikawa, Hiroshi

    Following the examples of other countries, in April 2005 Japan launched wholesale electric power exchange operations as a primary item of system reform in line with electric liberalization. Only two years have passed since the initiation of these operations. However, in the summer of 2005, the surge in market prices was evident, which suggested that certain measures should be taken to confront potential market risks. Establishing a useful system for forecasting market prices through the modeling of price fluctuations in the wholesale electric market became essential. Currently, various price models are being proposed. Taking both the limited amount of data and the model's purpose into consideration, this study adopted the univariate time series model. We conducted a time series analysis on the open price indexes in the JEPX spot market with the Box-Jenkins method. Since a seven-day cycle can be observed in the data, we adopted the seasonal ARIMA model. In accordance with the procedures of the Box-Jenkins method, we determined the degree of the model's polynomial using the autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation of the data and estimated the parameters of the model with the maximum likelihood method. We conducted a forecast on next day JEPX spot market prices with this time series model and examined its validity and utility as a forecasting tool. Price forecasts made with this model require only a small amount of data and will save substantial analysis work. Consequently, this method is expected to be widely used by market participants as the reference data for their bid pricing.

  6. Box-Jenkins analysis for shark landings in Costa Rica

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roger Bonilla

    2004-12-01

    Full Text Available Sharks are highly vulnerable to intense and prolonged fishery extraction. This article analyzes the data on shark landings from the artisan fishing fleet on Costa Rica’s Pacific coast between 1988 and 1997. The data come from an invoicing system administered by the Costa Rican Fisheries Institute (Instituto Costarricense de la Pesca y Acuacultura, INCOPESCA. Pacific coast shark fishing during the period under study represented approximately 20% of the total national fisheries volume. According to data from the invoicing system, the Northern Pacific region was the most productive, reporting 58% of the shark catch nationwide. Within this region, shark fishing in Papagayo Gulf represented 91% and 53% of the landings by fishery region and nationwide, respectively. The mid-sized and advanced (length of boat > 10 meters artisan fishing fleets reported 96% of the shark catches in the zone. The study of shark fisheries in the Papagayo Gulf zone is crucial for an understanding of fishery dynamics for this resource at the national level. A monthly chronological series was constructed with the landings in the Papagayo Gulf zone, and a Univariate Box-Jenkins (UBJ Model was estimated for first-order moving averages MA(1 with a seasonal component of the Yt = lambda a t + gamma S12 + a t typeEn este trabajo, se analizaron los datos de desembarque de tiburón de la flota pesquera artesanal en el Pacífico costarricense entre 1988 y 1997. Los datos provienen de un sistema de facturas administrado por el Instituto Costarricense de la Pesca (INCOPESCA. En el Pacífico, la pesca de tiburón en el período de estudio representó aproximadamente el 20% del volumen total de pesca a nivel nacional. De acuerdo con los datos del sistema de facturas, la región del Pacífico Norte fue la más productiva, reportando un 58% de los desembarques de tiburón a nivel nacional. En esta región, la pesca de tiburón en la zona del Golfo de Papagayo reportó 91% y 53% de los

  7. Determination of sample size for higher volatile data using new framework of Box-Jenkins model with GARCH: A case study on gold price

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roslindar Yaziz, Siti; Zakaria, Roslinazairimah; Hura Ahmad, Maizah

    2017-09-01

    The model of Box-Jenkins - GARCH has been shown to be a promising tool for forecasting higher volatile time series. In this study, the framework of determining the optimal sample size using Box-Jenkins model with GARCH is proposed for practical application in analysing and forecasting higher volatile data. The proposed framework is employed to daily world gold price series from year 1971 to 2013. The data is divided into 12 different sample sizes (from 30 to 10200). Each sample is tested using different combination of the hybrid Box-Jenkins - GARCH model. Our study shows that the optimal sample size to forecast gold price using the framework of the hybrid model is 1250 data of 5-year sample. Hence, the empirical results of model selection criteria and 1-step-ahead forecasting evaluations suggest that the latest 12.25% (5-year data) of 10200 data is sufficient enough to be employed in the model of Box-Jenkins - GARCH with similar forecasting performance as by using 41-year data.

  8. An assessment of Box-Jenkins models: Forcados monthly rainfall as ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    An autoregressive Box-Jenkins stochastic model of the twelfth order has been developed for the monthly rainfall data for Forcados along the coast of South Eastern Nigeria. The goodness of fit of the model was assessed by estimating the autocorrelations of the residuals of the historical data (from January 1931 to ...

  9. Jenkins essentials

    CERN Document Server

    Soni, Mitesh

    2015-01-01

    If you are a Jenkins novice or beginner with a basic understanding of continuous integration, then this is the book for you. Beginners in Jenkins will get quick hands-on experience and gain the confidence to go ahead and explore the use of Jenkins further.

  10. TIME SERIES CHARACTERISTIC ANALYSIS OF RAINFALL, LAND USE AND FLOOD DISCHARGE BASED ON ARIMA BOX-JENKINS MODEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abror Abror

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Indonesia located in tropic area consists of wet season and dry season. However, in last few years, in river discharge in dry season is very little, but in contrary, in wet season, frequency of flood increases with sharp peak and increasingly great water elevation. The increased flood discharge may occur due to change in land use or change in rainfall characteristic. Both matters should get clarity. Therefore, a research should be done to analyze rainfall characteristic, land use and flood discharge in some watershed area (DAS quantitatively from time series data. The research was conducted in DAS Gintung in Parakankidang, DAS Gung in Danawarih, DAS Rambut in Cipero, DAS Kemiri in Sidapurna and DAS Comal in Nambo, located in Tegal Regency and Pemalang Regency in Central Java Province. This research activity consisted of three main steps: input, DAS system and output. Input is DAS determination and selection and searching secondary data. DAS system is early secondary data processing consisting of rainfall analysis, HSS GAMA I parameter, land type analysis and DAS land use. Output is final processing step that consisting of calculation of Tadashi Tanimoto, USSCS effective rainfall, flood discharge, ARIMA analysis, result analysis and conclusion. Analytical calculation of ARIMA Box-Jenkins time series used software Number Cruncher Statistical Systems and Power Analysis Sample Size (NCSS-PASS version 2000, which result in time series characteristic in form of time series pattern, mean square errors (MSE, root mean square ( RMS, autocorrelation of residual and trend. Result of this research indicates that composite CN and flood discharge is proportional that means when composite CN trend increase then flood discharge trend also increase and vice versa. Meanwhile, decrease of rainfall trend is not always followed with decrease in flood discharge trend. The main cause of flood discharge characteristic is DAS management characteristic, not change in

  11. La teoria economica y el enfoque Box-Jenkins en la modelizacion de la demanda de productos energeticos: el fuel-oil y la energia electrica en Espana

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia-Pardo, Maria Jimena

    Esta tesis trata de integrar la teoria economica el enfoque box-jenkins del analisis de series temporales y un conjunto de datos de la economia espanola en un intento de elaborar modelos empiricos de demanda de productos energeticos con especial atencion a la deteccion y medicion de los efectos precio. Se analizan para ello las demandas de tres productos: la energia electrica el fuel - oil utilizado en las centrales termicas para la generacion de electricidad y el fuel - oil no termico. El periodo muestral es el comprendido entre enero de 1970 y diciembre de 1977.

  12. PREVISÃO PELO SERVIÇO DE FORNECIMENTO DE ÁGUA NO SEMIÁRIDO BRASILEIRO: uma aplicação dos modelos Box-Jenkins

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guilherme Nunes Martins

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The problem of drought in the Brazilian semiarid region is one of the limiting factors for economic development of the region, since the lack of water also hindering the lives of thousands of people, prevents various income-generating activities to be conducted. In face of this problem the federal government created the program emergency water distribution of the federal government known as “Operation Pipa”. Thus, this study aims to forecast demand for this service water supply in this region considering that such information is significant in the process of decision making time to allocate the available resources and the development of more effective policies. For this we used the Box-Jenkins methodology for the period January 2003 to August 2010, provided by the Ministry of National Integration, through the Secretary of National Defense and by the Land Operations Command of the Brazilian Army. The results showed that the model was most appropriate seasonal model SARIMA (2,0,1 (1,1,0 12. Forecasts suggest that there is indeed an increase in demand for water in the region. Concludes that only effective measures of dealing with the drought that could reverse such need.

  13. Jenkins The Definitive Guide

    CERN Document Server

    Smart, John

    2011-01-01

    Streamline software development with Jenkins, the popular Java-based open source tool that has revolutionized the way teams think about Continuous Integration (CI). This complete guide shows you how to automate your build, integration, release, and deployment processes with Jenkins-and demonstrates how CI can save you time, money, and many headaches. Ideal for developers, software architects, and project managers, Jenkins: The Definitive Guide is both a CI tutorial and a comprehensive Jenkins reference. Through its wealth of best practices and real-world tips, you'll discover how easy it is

  14. Jenkins continuous integration cookbook

    CERN Document Server

    Berg, Alan Mark

    2015-01-01

    If you are a Java developer, a software architect, a technical project manager, a build manager, or a development or QA engineer, then this book is ideal for you. A basic understanding of the software development life cycle and Java development is needed, as well as a rudimentary understanding of Jenkins.

  15. Forecasting with Dynamic Regression Models

    CERN Document Server

    Pankratz, Alan

    2012-01-01

    One of the most widely used tools in statistical forecasting, single equation regression models is examined here. A companion to the author's earlier work, Forecasting with Univariate Box-Jenkins Models: Concepts and Cases, the present text pulls together recent time series ideas and gives special attention to possible intertemporal patterns, distributed lag responses of output to input series and the auto correlation patterns of regression disturbance. It also includes six case studies.

  16. Selection of the optimal Box-Cox transformation parameter for modelling and forecasting age-specific fertility

    OpenAIRE

    Shang, Han Lin

    2015-01-01

    The Box-Cox transformation can sometimes yield noticeable improvements in model simplicity, variance homogeneity and precision of estimation, such as in modelling and forecasting age-specific fertility. Despite its importance, there have been few studies focusing on the optimal selection of Box-Cox transformation parameters in demographic forecasting. A simple method is proposed for selecting the optimal Box-Cox transformation parameter, along with an algorithm based on an in-sample forecast ...

  17. Forecasts of non-Gaussian parameter spaces using Box-Cox transformations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joachimi, B.; Taylor, A. N.

    2011-09-01

    Forecasts of statistical constraints on model parameters using the Fisher matrix abound in many fields of astrophysics. The Fisher matrix formalism involves the assumption of Gaussianity in parameter space and hence fails to predict complex features of posterior probability distributions. Combining the standard Fisher matrix with Box-Cox transformations, we propose a novel method that accurately predicts arbitrary posterior shapes. The Box-Cox transformations are applied to parameter space to render it approximately multivariate Gaussian, performing the Fisher matrix calculation on the transformed parameters. We demonstrate that, after the Box-Cox parameters have been determined from an initial likelihood evaluation, the method correctly predicts changes in the posterior when varying various parameters of the experimental setup and the data analysis, with marginally higher computational cost than a standard Fisher matrix calculation. We apply the Box-Cox-Fisher formalism to forecast cosmological parameter constraints by future weak gravitational lensing surveys. The characteristic non-linear degeneracy between matter density parameter and normalization of matter density fluctuations is reproduced for several cases, and the capabilities of breaking this degeneracy by weak-lensing three-point statistics is investigated. Possible applications of Box-Cox transformations of posterior distributions are discussed, including the prospects for performing statistical data analysis steps in the transformed Gaussianized parameter space.

  18. Gray-box reservoir routing to compute flow propagation in operational forecasting and decision support systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Russano, Euan; Schwanenberg, Dirk; Alvarado Montero, Rodolfo

    2017-04-01

    Operational forecasting and decision support systems for flood mitigation and the daily management of water resources require computationally efficient flow routing models. If backwater effects do not play an important role, a hydrological routing approach is often a pragmatic choice. It offers a reasonable accuracy at low computational costs in comparison to a more detailed hydraulic model. This work presents a nonlinear reservoir routing scheme as well as its implementation for the flow propagation between the hydro reservoir Três Marias and a downstream inundation-affected city Pirapora in Brazil. We refer to the model as a gray-box approach due to the identification of the parameter k by a data-driven approach for each reservoir of the cascade, instead of using estimates based on physical characteristics. The model reproduces the discharge at the gauge Pirapora, using 15 reservoirs in the cascade. The obtained results are compared with the ones obtained from the full-hydrodynamic model SOBEK. Results show a relatively good performance for the validation period, with a RMSE of 139.48 for the gray-box model, while the full-hydrodynamic model shows a RMSE of 136.67. The simulation time for a period of several years for the full-hydrodynamic took approximately 64s, while the gray-box model only required about 0.50s. This provides a significant speedup of the computation by only a little trade-off in accuracy, pointing at the potential of the simple approach in the context of time-critical, operational applications. Key-words: flow routing, reservoir routing, gray-box model

  19. Box Office Forecasting considering Competitive Environment and Word-of-Mouth in Social Networks: A Case Study of Korean Film Market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Taegu; Hong, Jungsik

    2017-01-01

    Accurate box office forecasting models are developed by considering competition and word-of-mouth (WOM) effects in addition to screening-related information. Nationality, genre, ratings, and distributors of motion pictures running concurrently with the target motion picture are used to describe the competition, whereas the numbers of informative, positive, and negative mentions posted on social network services (SNS) are used to gauge the atmosphere spread by WOM. Among these candidate variables, only significant variables are selected by genetic algorithm (GA), based on which machine learning algorithms are trained to build forecasting models. The forecasts are combined to improve forecasting performance. Experimental results on the Korean film market show that the forecasting accuracy in early screening periods can be significantly improved by considering competition. In addition, WOM has a stronger influence on total box office forecasting. Considering both competition and WOM improves forecasting performance to a larger extent than when only one of them is considered. PMID:28819355

  20. Box Office Forecasting considering Competitive Environment and Word-of-Mouth in Social Networks: A Case Study of Korean Film Market.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Taegu; Hong, Jungsik; Kang, Pilsung

    2017-01-01

    Accurate box office forecasting models are developed by considering competition and word-of-mouth (WOM) effects in addition to screening-related information. Nationality, genre, ratings, and distributors of motion pictures running concurrently with the target motion picture are used to describe the competition, whereas the numbers of informative, positive, and negative mentions posted on social network services (SNS) are used to gauge the atmosphere spread by WOM. Among these candidate variables, only significant variables are selected by genetic algorithm (GA), based on which machine learning algorithms are trained to build forecasting models. The forecasts are combined to improve forecasting performance. Experimental results on the Korean film market show that the forecasting accuracy in early screening periods can be significantly improved by considering competition. In addition, WOM has a stronger influence on total box office forecasting. Considering both competition and WOM improves forecasting performance to a larger extent than when only one of them is considered.

  1. Box Office Forecasting considering Competitive Environment and Word-of-Mouth in Social Networks: A Case Study of Korean Film Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Taegu Kim

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Accurate box office forecasting models are developed by considering competition and word-of-mouth (WOM effects in addition to screening-related information. Nationality, genre, ratings, and distributors of motion pictures running concurrently with the target motion picture are used to describe the competition, whereas the numbers of informative, positive, and negative mentions posted on social network services (SNS are used to gauge the atmosphere spread by WOM. Among these candidate variables, only significant variables are selected by genetic algorithm (GA, based on which machine learning algorithms are trained to build forecasting models. The forecasts are combined to improve forecasting performance. Experimental results on the Korean film market show that the forecasting accuracy in early screening periods can be significantly improved by considering competition. In addition, WOM has a stronger influence on total box office forecasting. Considering both competition and WOM improves forecasting performance to a larger extent than when only one of them is considered.

  2. Forecasting electricity usage using univariate time series models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hock-Eam, Lim; Chee-Yin, Yip

    2014-12-01

    Electricity is one of the important energy sources. A sufficient supply of electricity is vital to support a country's development and growth. Due to the changing of socio-economic characteristics, increasing competition and deregulation of electricity supply industry, the electricity demand forecasting is even more important than before. It is imperative to evaluate and compare the predictive performance of various forecasting methods. This will provide further insights on the weakness and strengths of each method. In literature, there are mixed evidences on the best forecasting methods of electricity demand. This paper aims to compare the predictive performance of univariate time series models for forecasting the electricity demand using a monthly data of maximum electricity load in Malaysia from January 2003 to December 2013. Results reveal that the Box-Jenkins method produces the best out-of-sample predictive performance. On the other hand, Holt-Winters exponential smoothing method is a good forecasting method for in-sample predictive performance.

  3. Network Bandwidth Utilization Forecast Model on High Bandwidth Network

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yoo, Wucherl; Sim, Alex

    2014-07-07

    With the increasing number of geographically distributed scientific collaborations and the scale of the data size growth, it has become more challenging for users to achieve the best possible network performance on a shared network. We have developed a forecast model to predict expected bandwidth utilization for high-bandwidth wide area network. The forecast model can improve the efficiency of resource utilization and scheduling data movements on high-bandwidth network to accommodate ever increasing data volume for large-scale scientific data applications. Univariate model is developed with STL and ARIMA on SNMP path utilization data. Compared with traditional approach such as Box-Jenkins methodology, our forecast model reduces computation time by 83.2percent. It also shows resilience against abrupt network usage change. The accuracy of the forecast model is within the standard deviation of the monitored measurements.

  4. Network bandwidth utilization forecast model on high bandwidth networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yoo, Wuchert (William) [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Sim, Alex [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

    2015-03-30

    With the increasing number of geographically distributed scientific collaborations and the scale of the data size growth, it has become more challenging for users to achieve the best possible network performance on a shared network. We have developed a forecast model to predict expected bandwidth utilization for high-bandwidth wide area network. The forecast model can improve the efficiency of resource utilization and scheduling data movements on high-bandwidth network to accommodate ever increasing data volume for large-scale scientific data applications. Univariate model is developed with STL and ARIMA on SNMP path utilization data. Compared with traditional approach such as Box-Jenkins methodology, our forecast model reduces computation time by 83.2%. It also shows resilience against abrupt network usage change. The accuracy of the forecast model is within the standard deviation of the monitored measurements.

  5. Client-Friendly Forecasting: Seasonal Runoff Predictions Using Out-of-the-Box Indices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weil, P.

    2013-12-01

    For more than a century, statistical relationships have been recognized between atmospheric conditions at locations separated by thousands of miles, referred to as teleconnections. Some of the recognized teleconnections provide useful information about expected hydrologic conditions, so certain records of atmospheric conditions are quantified and published as hydroclimate indices. Certain hydroclimate indices can serve as strong leading indicators of climate patterns over North America and can be used to make skillful forecasts of seasonal runoff. The methodology described here creates a simple-to-use model that utilizes easily accessed data to make forecasts of April through September runoff months before the runoff season begins. For this project, forecasting models were developed for two snowmelt-driven river systems in Colorado and Wyoming. In addition to the global hydroclimate indices, the methodology uses several local hydrologic variables including the previous year's drought severity, headwater snow water equivalent and the reservoir contents for the major reservoirs in each basin. To improve the skill of the forecasts, logistic regression is used to develop a model that provides the likelihood that a year will fall into the upper, middle or lower tercile of historical flows. Categorical forecasting has two major advantages over modeling of specific flow amounts: (1) with less prediction outcomes models tend to have better predictive skill and (2) categorical models are very useful to clients and agencies with specific flow thresholds that dictate major changes in water resources management. The resulting methodology and functional forecasting model product is highly portable, applicable to many major river systems and easily explained to a non-technical audience.

  6. Multivariate methods and forecasting with IBM SPSS statistics

    CERN Document Server

    Aljandali, Abdulkader

    2017-01-01

    This is the second of a two-part guide to quantitative analysis using the IBM SPSS Statistics software package; this volume focuses on multivariate statistical methods and advanced forecasting techniques. More often than not, regression models involve more than one independent variable. For example, forecasting methods are commonly applied to aggregates such as inflation rates, unemployment, exchange rates, etc., that have complex relationships with determining variables. This book introduces multivariate regression models and provides examples to help understand theory underpinning the model. The book presents the fundamentals of multivariate regression and then moves on to examine several related techniques that have application in business-orientated fields such as logistic and multinomial regression. Forecasting tools such as the Box-Jenkins approach to time series modeling are introduced, as well as exponential smoothing and naïve techniques. This part also covers hot topics such as Factor Analysis, Dis...

  7. Modeling and forecasting rainfall patterns of southwest monsoons in North-East India as a SARIMA process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Narasimha Murthy, K. V.; Saravana, R.; Vijaya Kumar, K.

    2018-02-01

    Weather forecasting is an important issue in the field of meteorology all over the world. The pattern and amount of rainfall are the essential factors that affect agricultural systems. India experiences the precious Southwest monsoon season for four months from June to September. The present paper describes an empirical study for modeling and forecasting the time series of Southwest monsoon rainfall patterns in the North-East India. The Box-Jenkins Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) methodology has been adopted for model identification, diagnostic checking and forecasting for this region. The study has shown that the SARIMA (0, 1, 1) (1, 0, 1)4 model is appropriate for analyzing and forecasting the future rainfall patterns. The Analysis of Means (ANOM) is a useful alternative to the analysis of variance (ANOVA) for comparing the group of treatments to study the variations and critical comparisons of rainfall patterns in different months of the season.

  8. Influenza forecasting with Google Flu Trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dugas, Andrea Freyer; Jalalpour, Mehdi; Gel, Yulia; Levin, Scott; Torcaso, Fred; Igusa, Takeru; Rothman, Richard E

    2013-01-01

    We developed a practical influenza forecast model based on real-time, geographically focused, and easy to access data, designed to provide individual medical centers with advanced warning of the expected number of influenza cases, thus allowing for sufficient time to implement interventions. Secondly, we evaluated the effects of incorporating a real-time influenza surveillance system, Google Flu Trends, and meteorological and temporal information on forecast accuracy. Forecast models designed to predict one week in advance were developed from weekly counts of confirmed influenza cases over seven seasons (2004-2011) divided into seven training and out-of-sample verification sets. Forecasting procedures using classical Box-Jenkins, generalized linear models (GLM), and generalized linear autoregressive moving average (GARMA) methods were employed to develop the final model and assess the relative contribution of external variables such as, Google Flu Trends, meteorological data, and temporal information. A GARMA(3,0) forecast model with Negative Binomial distribution integrating Google Flu Trends information provided the most accurate influenza case predictions. The model, on the average, predicts weekly influenza cases during 7 out-of-sample outbreaks within 7 cases for 83% of estimates. Google Flu Trend data was the only source of external information to provide statistically significant forecast improvements over the base model in four of the seven out-of-sample verification sets. Overall, the p-value of adding this external information to the model is 0.0005. The other exogenous variables did not yield a statistically significant improvement in any of the verification sets. Integer-valued autoregression of influenza cases provides a strong base forecast model, which is enhanced by the addition of Google Flu Trends confirming the predictive capabilities of search query based syndromic surveillance. This accessible and flexible forecast model can be used by

  9. Koht, kust tagasi ei tulda / Mark Jenkins ; fotod Cory Richards

    Index Scriptorium Estoniae

    Jenkins, Mark

    2015-01-01

    National Geographicu ekspeditsiooni, mille koosseisu kuulusid Renan Ozturk, Mark Jenkins, Cory Richards, Emily Harrington ja Kilaree O'Neill, püüdlustest tõusta Kagu-Aasia kõrgeima mäe Hkakabo Razi tippu ning mõõta selle täpset kõrgust GPS-i abil

  10. Estimation and Forecasting the Gross Domestic Product´s Growth Rate in Ecuador: a Short-term Vision

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yadier Alberto Torres−Sánchez

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Ecuador is the seventh largest economy in Latin America. From 2000 to 2012, the country has been expanding at an average rate of 1,15 % on a quarter over quarter basis, mostly due to a rise in exports. Ecuador´s economy is highly dependent on oil exports. In order to reach its full growth potential, the country needs to reduce its dependence on oil revenue; increase the tax base; achieve political stability and reduce the levels of poverty and inequality. The main objective of this research is specifically marked in estimate and forecast the Gross Domestic Product´s Growth Rate in Ecuador, applying for this BoxJenkins´ Methodology for ARIMA models. It was obtained a forecast of 3,96 % approximately, that represents a logical result according with the time series.

  11. Estimation and Forecasting the Gross Domestic Product´s Growth Rate in Ecuador: a Short-term Vision

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yadier Alberto Torres−Sánchez

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Ecuador is the seventh largest economy in Latin America. From 2000 to 2012, the country has been expanding at an average rate of 1,15 % on a quarter over quarter basis, mostly due to a rise in exports. Ecuador´s economy is highly dependent on oil exports. In order to reach its full growth potential, the country needs to reduce its dependence on oil revenue; increase the tax base; achieve political stability and reduce the levels of poverty and inequality. The main objective of this research is specifically marked in estimate and forecast the Gross Domestic Product´s Growth Rate in Ecuador, applying for this BoxJenkins´ Methodology for ARIMA models. It was obtained a forecast of 3,96 % approximately, that represents a logical result according with the time series.

  12. Optimal forecasting model selection and data characteristics

    OpenAIRE

    Fildes, Robert; Madden, Gary; Tan, Joachim

    2007-01-01

    Selection protocols such as Box–Jenkins, variance analysis, method switching and rules-based forecasting measure data characteristics and incorporate them in models to generate best forecasts. These protocol selection methods are judgemental in application and often select a single (aggregate) model to forecast a collection of series. An alternative is to apply individually selected models for to series. A multinomial logit (MNL) approach is developed and tested on Information and communicati...

  13. Medium range forecasting of hourly power system load by time series analysis using the Walsh transform

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Basu, T.K.; Bhattacharya, T.K. (Indian Inst. of Tech., Kharagpur (IN). Dept. of Electrical Engineering); Purkayastha, P. (Oil India Ltd., Duliajan (IN))

    1991-08-01

    Medium range forecasts of hourly load demand for a span of 24 h to 168h are required for the preparation of short term maintenance schedules of unit auxiliaries and peaking stations apart from maintaining security constraints and minimizing operational costs. Forecasts of the daily load for seven days by the available multiplicative SARIMA model suffer from divergent error levels of multistep ahead forecasts, and to take all the features of any particular day, the order of such models will be prohibitively large. In the present paper a unique approach has been made to the time series analysis of stochastic processes: multigrade periodicities present in the daily load curve have been gainfully exploited by grouping the data in seven subgroups characterizing each week day separately and then each group is replaced by an orthogonal transform known as a Walsh transform. The amplitudes of the transformed spectrum have been time series modelled by the Box-Jenkins approach and forecasts are made by taking inverse (Walsh) transforms. (author).

  14. Forecast of Frost Days Based on Monthly Temperatures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castellanos, M. T.; Tarquis, A. M.; Morató, M. C.; Saa-Requejo, A.

    2009-04-01

    Although frost can cause considerable crop damage and mitigation practices against forecasted frost exist, frost forecasting technologies have not changed for many years. The paper reports a new method to forecast the monthly number of frost days (FD) for several meteorological stations at Community of Madrid (Spain) based on successive application of two models. The first one is a stochastic model, autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), that forecasts monthly minimum absolute temperature (tmin) and monthly average of minimum temperature (tminav) following Box-Jenkins methodology. The second model relates these monthly temperatures to minimum daily temperature distribution during one month. Three ARIMA models were identified for the time series analyzed with a stational period correspondent to one year. They present the same stational behavior (moving average differenced model) and different non-stational part: autoregressive model (Model 1), moving average differenced model (Model 2) and autoregressive and moving average model (Model 3). At the same time, the results point out that minimum daily temperature (tdmin), for the meteorological stations studied, followed a normal distribution each month with a very similar standard deviation through years. This standard deviation obtained for each station and each month could be used as a risk index for cold months. The application of Model 1 to predict minimum monthly temperatures showed the best FD forecast. This procedure provides a tool for crop managers and crop insurance companies to asses the risk of frost frequency and intensity, so that they can take steps to mitigate against frost damage and estimated the damage that frost would cost. This research was supported by Comunidad de Madrid Research Project 076/92. The cooperation of the Spanish National Meteorological Institute and the Spanish Ministerio de Agricultura, Pesca y Alimentation (MAPA) is gratefully acknowledged.

  15. Models for Train Passenger Forecasting of Java and Sumatra

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sartono

    2017-04-01

    People tend to take public transportation to avoid high traffic, especially in Java. In Jakarta, the number of railway passengers is over than the capacity of the train at peak time. This is an opportunity as well as a challenge. If it is managed well then the company can get high profit. Otherwise, it may lead to disaster. This article discusses models for the train passengers, hence, finding the reasonable models to make a prediction overtimes. The Box-Jenkins method is occupied to develop a basic model. Then, this model is compared to models obtained using exponential smoothing method and regression method. The result shows that Holt-Winters model is better to predict for one-month, three-month, and six-month ahead for the passenger in Java. In addition, SARIMA(1,1,0)(2,0,0) is more accurate for nine-month and twelve-month oversee. On the other hand, for Sumatra passenger forecasting, SARIMA(1,1,1)(0,0,2) gives a better approximation for one-month ahead, and ARIMA model is best for three-month ahead prediction. The rest, Trend Seasonal and Liner Model has the least of RMSE to forecast for six-month, nine-month, and twelve-month ahead.

  16. ARIMA MODEL BUILDING AND FORECASTING ON IMPORTS AND EXPORTS OF PAKISTAN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmad Farooqi

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available From the day one, mankind has always been interested in to the future. As the civilization advanced with growing sophistication in all phases of life, the need to look in to the future also grew with it. Today every government, public private organizations, as well as an individual would like to predict and plan for the future. In order to attain a better growth in the economy of a country, modeling and forecasting is the most important tool now a day, this can be done by one of the statistical technique called a Time series analysis. In this paper we tried to build a time series model called ARIMA (Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average model with particular reference of Box and Jenkins approach on annually total Imports and Exports of Pakistan from the year 1947 to the year 2013 with useful statistical software R. Validity of the fitted model is tested using standard statistical techniques. The fitted model is then use to forecast some future values of Imports and export of Pakistan. It is found that an ARIMA (2, 2, 2 and ARIMA (1, 2, 2 model looks suitable to forecast the annual Imports and Exports of Pakistan respectively. We also found an increasing trend both in case of Imports and Exports during this study.

  17. Forecasting Tourist Arrivals and Supply and Demand Gap Analysis ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Based on the assessments and analysis, the Box-Jenkins process was selected. Furthermore, the gap analysis is done using the Funneling Technique. The method has also determined that the annual tourist arrivals for the country in the year 2015 will be 798,157 and for the year of 2020, it is expected to be 1,130,971 and ...

  18. Category Learning in Rhesus Monkeys: A Study of the Shepard, Hovland, and Jenkins (1961) Tasks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, J. David; Minda, John Paul; Washburn, David A.

    2004-01-01

    In influential research, R. N. Shepard, C. I. Hovland, and H. M. Jenkins (1961) surveyed humans' categorization abilities using tasks based in rules, exclusive-or (XOR) relations, and exemplar memorization. Humans' performance was poorly predicted by cue-conditioning or stimulus-generalization theories, causing Shepard et al. to describe it in…

  19. Human Learning of Elemental Category Structures: Revising the Classic Result of Shepard, Hovland, and Jenkins (1961)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kurtz, Kenneth J.; Levering, Kimery R.; Stanton, Roger D.; Romero, Joshua; Morris, Steven N.

    2013-01-01

    The findings of Shepard, Hovland, and Jenkins (1961) on the relative ease of learning 6 elemental types of 2-way classifications have been deeply influential 2 times over: 1st, as a rebuke to pure stimulus generalization accounts, and again as the leading benchmark for evaluating formal models of human category learning. The litmus test for models…

  20. Virtual box

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stougaard, Malthe Kirkhoff

    2007-01-01

    . This paper reports on the design, implementation and initial evaluation of Virtual Box. Virtual Box attempts to create a physical and engaging context in order to support reciprocal interactions with expressive content. An implemented version of Virtual Box is evaluated in a location-aware environment...

  1. Forecast analysis of any opportunistic infection among HIV positive individuals on antiretroviral therapy in Uganda.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rubaihayo, John; Tumwesigye, Nazarius M; Konde-Lule, Joseph; Makumbi, Fredrick

    2016-08-11

    Predicting future prevalence of any opportunistic infection (OI) among persons infected with the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) on highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) in resource poor settings is important for proper planning, advocacy and resource allocation. We conducted a study to forecast 5-years prevalence of any OI among HIV-infected individuals on HAART in Uganda. Monthly observational data collected over a 10-years period (2004-2013) by the AIDS support organization (TASO) in Uganda were used to forecast 5-years annual prevalence of any OI covering the period 2014-2018. The OIs considered include 14 AIDS-defining OIs, two non-AIDS defining OIs (malaria & geohelminths) and HIV-associated Kaposi's sarcoma. Box-Jenkins autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) forecasting methodology was used. Between 2004 and 2013, a total of 36,133 HIV patients were enrolled on HAART of which two thirds (66 %) were female. Mean annual prevalence for any OI in 2004 was 57.6 % and in 2013 was 27.5 % (X(2) trend = 122, b = -0.0283, p forecasted mean annual prevalence of any OI was 26.1 % (95 % CI 21.1-31.0 %) in 2014 and 15.3 % (95 % CI 10.4-20.3 %) in 2018. While the prevalence of any OI among HIV positive individuals on HAART in Uganda is expected to decrease overall, it's unlikely that OIs will be completely eliminated in the foreseeable future. There is therefore need for continued efforts in prevention and control of opportunistic infections in all HIV/AIDS care programmes in these settings.

  2. Deploying the ATLAS Metadata Interface (AMI) on the cloud with Jenkins.

    CERN Document Server

    AUTHOR|(SzGeCERN)637120; The ATLAS collaboration; Odier, Jerome; Fulachier, Jerome

    2016-01-01

    The ATLAS Metadata Interface (AMI) is a mature application of more than 15 years of existence. Mainly used by the ATLAS experiment at CERN, it consists of a very generic tool ecosystem for metadata aggregation and cataloguing. AMI is used by the ATLAS production system, therefore the service must guarantee a high level of availability. We describe our monitoring and administration systems, and the Jenkins-based strategy used to dynamically test and deploy cloud OpenStack nodes on demand.

  3. Deploying the ATLAS Metadata Interface (AMI) on the cloud with Jenkins

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lambert, F.; Odier, J.; Fulachier, J.; ATLAS Collaboration

    2017-10-01

    The ATLAS Metadata Interface (AMI) is a mature application of more than 15 years of existence. Mainly used by the ATLAS experiment at CERN, it consists of a very generic tool ecosystem for metadata aggregation and cataloguing. AMI is used by the ATLAS production system, therefore the service must guarantee a high level of availability. We describe our monitoring and administration systems, and the Jenkins-based strategy used to dynamically test and deploy cloud OpenStack nodes on demand.

  4. A SARIMA forecasting model to predict the number of cases of dengue in Campinas, State of São Paulo, Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edson Zangiacomi Martinez

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available INTRODUCTION: Forecasting dengue cases in a population by using time-series models can provide useful information that can be used to facilitate the planning of public health interventions. The objective of this article was to develop a forecasting model for dengue incidence in Campinas, southeast Brazil, considering the Box-Jenkins modeling approach. METHODS: The forecasting model for dengue incidence was performed with R software using the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA model. We fitted a model based on the reported monthly incidence of dengue from 1998 to 2008, and we validated the model using the data collected between January and December of 2009. RESULTS: SARIMA (2,1,2 (1,1,112 was the model with the best fit for data. This model indicated that the number of dengue cases in a given month can be estimated by the number of dengue cases occurring one, two and twelve months prior. The predicted values for 2009 are relatively close to the observed values. CONCLUSIONS: The results of this article indicate that SARIMA models are useful tools for monitoring dengue incidence. We also observe that the SARIMA model is capable of representing with relative precision the number of cases in a next year.

  5. Bento Boxes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hasio, Cindy

    2010-01-01

    Bento boxes are common objects in Japanese culture, designed to hold enough lunch for one person. They have individual compartments and sometimes multiple tiers for rice, vegetables, and other side dishes. They are made of materials ranging from wood, cloth, aluminum, or plastic. In general, the greater the number of foods, the better the box is…

  6. Jenkins-CI, an Open-Source Continuous Integration System, as a Scientific Data and Image-Processing Platform.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moutsatsos, Ioannis K; Hossain, Imtiaz; Agarinis, Claudia; Harbinski, Fred; Abraham, Yann; Dobler, Luc; Zhang, Xian; Wilson, Christopher J; Jenkins, Jeremy L; Holway, Nicholas; Tallarico, John; Parker, Christian N

    2017-03-01

    High-throughput screening generates large volumes of heterogeneous data that require a diverse set of computational tools for management, processing, and analysis. Building integrated, scalable, and robust computational workflows for such applications is challenging but highly valuable. Scientific data integration and pipelining facilitate standardized data processing, collaboration, and reuse of best practices. We describe how Jenkins-CI, an "off-the-shelf," open-source, continuous integration system, is used to build pipelines for processing images and associated data from high-content screening (HCS). Jenkins-CI provides numerous plugins for standard compute tasks, and its design allows the quick integration of external scientific applications. Using Jenkins-CI, we integrated CellProfiler, an open-source image-processing platform, with various HCS utilities and a high-performance Linux cluster. The platform is web-accessible, facilitates access and sharing of high-performance compute resources, and automates previously cumbersome data and image-processing tasks. Imaging pipelines developed using the desktop CellProfiler client can be managed and shared through a centralized Jenkins-CI repository. Pipelines and managed data are annotated to facilitate collaboration and reuse. Limitations with Jenkins-CI (primarily around the user interface) were addressed through the selection of helper plugins from the Jenkins-CI community.

  7. Jenkins-CI, an Open-Source Continuous Integration System, as a Scientific Data and Image-Processing Platform

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moutsatsos, Ioannis K.; Hossain, Imtiaz; Agarinis, Claudia; Harbinski, Fred; Abraham, Yann; Dobler, Luc; Zhang, Xian; Wilson, Christopher J.; Jenkins, Jeremy L.; Holway, Nicholas; Tallarico, John; Parker, Christian N.

    2016-01-01

    High-throughput screening generates large volumes of heterogeneous data that require a diverse set of computational tools for management, processing, and analysis. Building integrated, scalable, and robust computational workflows for such applications is challenging but highly valuable. Scientific data integration and pipelining facilitate standardized data processing, collaboration, and reuse of best practices. We describe how Jenkins-CI, an “off-the-shelf,” open-source, continuous integration system, is used to build pipelines for processing images and associated data from high-content screening (HCS). Jenkins-CI provides numerous plugins for standard compute tasks, and its design allows the quick integration of external scientific applications. Using Jenkins-CI, we integrated CellProfiler, an open-source image-processing platform, with various HCS utilities and a high-performance Linux cluster. The platform is web-accessible, facilitates access and sharing of high-performance compute resources, and automates previously cumbersome data and image-processing tasks. Imaging pipelines developed using the desktop CellProfiler client can be managed and shared through a centralized Jenkins-CI repository. Pipelines and managed data are annotated to facilitate collaboration and reuse. Limitations with Jenkins-CI (primarily around the user interface) were addressed through the selection of helper plugins from the Jenkins-CI community. PMID:27899692

  8. GRINDING PROCESS CONTROL BY BOX-JENKINS IN THE SUGAR COMPANY "PAQUITO ROSALES" ITS INFLUENCE ON THE COST OF PRODUCTION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adriana Cabrera-Milanés

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The sugar agroindustrial companies have as purpose the reduction of costs in all the stages of the productive process. Such aspect is reflected in the process of enhancing of the sugar industry, because within its strategic objectives they are included the consolidation of the competitiveness from the sugar sector at a worldwide level, by means the improvement of the process. The work begins with an analysis of the traditional process, as well as the statistical control of the process. It is carried out the modelling of the characteristics of the variable Pol of Bagasse by means of the methodology of ARIMA, in the Sugar Company "Paquito Rosales". The outliers are also detected in the graphics of control of the residuals of the pattern selected ARIMA, that which allows to evaluate the quantity of the effect of the variability of the process and to determine the effect of these in the cost of the production. 

  9. Deploying the ATLAS Metadata Interface (AMI) on the cloud with Jenkins

    CERN Document Server

    Lambert, Fabian; The ATLAS collaboration

    2016-01-01

    The ATLAS Metadata Interface (AMI) is a mature application of more than 15 years of existence. Mainly used by the ATLAS experiment at CERN, it consists of a very generic tool ecosystem for metadata aggregation and cataloguing. AMI is used by the ATLAS production system, therefore the service must guarantee a high level of availability. We describe our monitoring system and the Jenkins-based strategy used to dynamically test and deploy cloud OpenStack nodes on demand. Moreover, we describe how to switch to a distant replica in case of downtime.

  10. Transportation Workload Forecasting Study - Implementation (TWFS-I).

    Science.gov (United States)

    1985-08-01

    Jenkins method for MTMC computers. (6) Assisted MTMC in reproduction of FY 1986 forecast at MTMC. 1-9. STUDY PRODUCTS AND GUIDE TO THE REMAINDER OF THE...0. t u 20. a 290 21. 23. .L 3 22. 31: .u3123. ? .U21 24. 0.OU 2!. 14. .01’ 26. 45. .0 27. 14. .U14 26. 27. U,7 29. 22. .022 3; . 0. . UfO 31. 13. .01S

  11. Category learning in older adulthood: A study of the Shepard, Hovland, and Jenkins (1961) tasks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rabi, Rahel; Minda, John Paul

    2016-03-01

    Shepard, Hovland, and Jenkins (1961) examined the categorization abilities of younger adults using tasks involving single-dimensional rule learning, disjunctive rule learning, and family resemblance learning. The current study examined category learning in older adults using this well-known category set. Older adults, like younger adults, found category tasks with a single relevant dimension the easiest to learn. In contrast to younger adults, older adults found complex disjunctive rule-based categories harder to learn than family resemblance based categories. Disjunctive rule-based category learning appeared to be the most difficult for older adults to learn because this category set placed the heaviest demands on working memory, which is known to be a cognitive function that declines with normal aging. The authors discuss why complex rule-based category learning is considered more difficult for older adults to learn relative to younger adults, drawing parallels to developmental research. (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

  12. Andy Jenkins Builds Applications Development For Lab-on-a-Chip

    Science.gov (United States)

    2004-01-01

    Andy Jenkins, an engineer for the Lab on a Chip Applications Development program, helped build the Applications Development Unit (ADU-25), a one-of-a-kind facility for controlling and analyzing processes on chips with extreme accuracy. Pressure is used to cause fluids to travel through network of fluid pathways, or micro-channels, embossed on the chips through a process similar to the one used to print circuits on computer chips. To make customized chips for various applications, NASA has an agreement with the U.S. Army's Micro devices and Micro fabrication Laboratory at Redstone Arsenal in Huntsville, Alabama, where NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) is located. The Marshall Center team is also collaborating with scientists at other NASA centers and at universities to develop custom chip designs for many applications, such as studying how fluidic systems work in spacecraft and identifying microbes in self-contained life support systems. Chips could even be designed for use on Earth, such as for detecting deadly microbes in heating and air systems. (NASA/MSFC/D.Stoffer)

  13. The Careful Puppet Master: Reducing risk and fortifying acceptance testing with Jenkins CI

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Jason A.; Richman, Gabriel; DeStefano, John; Pryor, James; Rao, Tejas; Strecker-Kellogg, William; Wong, Tony

    2015-12-01

    Centralized configuration management, including the use of automation tools such as Puppet, can greatly increase provisioning speed and efficiency when configuring new systems or making changes to existing systems, reduce duplication of work, and improve automated processes. However, centralized management also brings with it a level of inherent risk: a single change in just one file can quickly be pushed out to thousands of computers and, if that change is not properly and thoroughly tested and contains an error, could result in catastrophic damage to many services, potentially bringing an entire computer facility offline. Change management procedures can—and should—be formalized in order to prevent such accidents. However, like the configuration management process itself, if such procedures are not automated, they can be difficult to enforce strictly. Therefore, to reduce the risk of merging potentially harmful changes into our production Puppet environment, we have created an automated testing system, which includes the Jenkins CI tool, to manage our Puppet testing process. This system includes the proposed changes and runs Puppet on a pool of dozens of RedHat Enterprise Virtualization (RHEV) virtual machines (VMs) that replicate most of our important production services for the purpose of testing. This paper describes our automated test system and how it hooks into our production approval process for automatic acceptance testing. All pending changes that have been pushed to production must pass this validation process before they can be approved and merged into production.

  14. Short term forecasting of petroleum product demand in France; Modelisation a court terme des consommations de produits petroliers en France

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cadren, M

    1998-06-23

    The analysis of petroleum product demand became a privileged thrust of research following the modifications in terms of structure and level of the petroleum markets since eighties. The greatest importance to econometrics models of Energy demand, joint works about nonstationary data, explained the development of error-correction models and the co-integration. In this context, the short term econometrics modelling of petroleum product demand does not only focus on forecasts but also on the measure of the gain acquired from using error-correction techniques and co-integration. It`s filling to take the influence of technical improvement and environment pressures into account in econometrics modelling of petroleum products demand. The first part presents the evolution of Energy Demand in France and more particularly the petroleum product demand since 1986. The objective is to determine the main characteristics of each product, which will help us to analyse and validate the econometrics models. The second part focus on the recent developments in times series modelling. We study the problem of nonstationary data and expose different unit root tests. We examine the main approaches to univariate and multivariate modelling with nonstationary data and distinguish the forecasts of the latter`s. The third part is intended to applications; its objective is to illustrate the theoretic developments of the second part with a comparison between the performances of different approaches (approach Box and Jenkins, Johansen approach`s and structural approach). The models will be applied to the main French petroleum market. The observed asymmetrical demand behaviour is also considered. (author) 153 refs.

  15. Forecasting Skill

    Science.gov (United States)

    1981-01-01

    for the third and fourth day precipitation forecasts. A marked improvement was shown for the consensus 24 hour precipitation forecast, and small... Zuckerberg (1980) found a small long term skill increase in forecasts of heavy snow events for nine eastern cities. Other National Weather Service...and maximum temperature) are each awarded marks 2, 1, or 0 according to whether the forecast is correct, 8 - *- -**■*- ———"—- - -■ t0m 1 MM—IB I

  16. Forecasting Sales

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ph.H.B.F. Franses (Philip Hans)

    2009-01-01

    textabstractThis chapter deals with forecasting sales (in units or money), where an explicit distinction is made between sales of durable goods (computers, cars, books) and sales of utilitarian products (SKU level in supermarkets). Invariably, sales forecasting amounts to a combination of

  17. Fishing Forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    1988-01-01

    ROFFS stands for Roffer's Ocean Fishing Forecasting Service, Inc. Roffer combines satellite and computer technology with oceanographic information from several sources to produce frequently updated charts sometimes as often as 30 times a day showing clues to the location of marlin, sailfish, tuna, swordfish and a variety of other types. Also provides customized forecasts for racing boats and the shipping industry along with seasonal forecasts that allow the marine industry to formulate fishing strategies based on foreknowledge of the arrival and departure times of different fish. Roffs service exemplifies the potential for benefits to marine industries from satellite observations. Most notable results are reduced search time and substantial fuel savings.

  18. Strategic Forecasting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Duus, Henrik Johannsen

    2016-01-01

    as a rebirth of long range planning, albeit with new methods and theories. Firms should make the building of strategic forecasting capability a priority. Research limitations/implications: The article subdivides strategic forecasting into three research avenues and suggests avenues for further research efforts......Purpose: The purpose of this article is to present an overview of the area of strategic forecasting and its research directions and to put forward some ideas for improving management decisions. Design/methodology/approach: This article is conceptual but also informed by the author’s long contact...... and collaboration with various business firms. It starts by presenting an overview of the area and argues that the area is as much a way of thinking as a toolbox of theories and methodologies. It then spells out a number of research directions and ideas for management. Findings: Strategic forecasting is seen...

  19. Exposure Forecaster

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — The Exposure Forecaster Database (ExpoCastDB) is EPA's database for aggregating chemical exposure information and can be used to help with chemical exposure...

  20. Shaping 3-D boxes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stenholt, Rasmus; Madsen, Claus B.

    2011-01-01

    Enabling users to shape 3-D boxes in immersive virtual environments is a non-trivial problem. In this paper, a new family of techniques for creating rectangular boxes of arbitrary position, orientation, and size is presented and evaluated. These new techniques are based solely on position data......F) docking experiment against an existing technique, which requires the user to perform the rotation and scaling of the box explicitly. The precision of the users' box construction is evaluated by a novel error metric measuring the difference between two boxes. The results of the experiment strongly indicate...... that for precision docking of 9 DoF boxes, some of the proposed techniques are significantly better than ones with explicit rotation and scaling. Another interesting result is that the number of DoF simultaneously controlled by the user significantly influences the precision of the docking....

  1. Math in the Box

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeYoung, Mary J.

    2009-01-01

    This article describes how to make an origami paper box and explores the algebra, geometry, and other mathematics that unfolds. A set of origami steps that transforms the paper into an open box can hold mathematical surprises for both students and teachers. An origami lesson can engage students in an open-ended exploration of the relationship…

  2. ALUMINUM BOX BUNDLING PRESS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iosif DUMITRESCU

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available In municipal solid waste, aluminum is the main nonferrous metal, approximately 80- 85% of the total nonferrous metals. The income per ton gained from aluminum recuperation is 20 times higher than from glass, steel boxes or paper recuperation. The object of this paper is the design of a 300 kN press for aluminum box bundling.

  3. Forecasting the Reference Evapotranspiration Using Time Series Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Zare Abyaneh

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Reference evapotranspiration is one of the most important factors in irrigation timing and field management. Moreover, reference evapotranspiration forecasting can play a vital role in future developments. Therefore in this study, the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA model was used to forecast the reference evapotranspiration time series in the Esfahan, Semnan, Shiraz, Kerman, and Yazd synoptic stations. Materials and Methods: In the present study in all stations (characteristics of the synoptic stations are given in Table 1, the meteorological data, including mean, maximum and minimum air temperature, relative humidity, dry-and wet-bulb temperature, dew-point temperature, wind speed, precipitation, air vapor pressure and sunshine hours were collected from the Islamic Republic of Iran Meteorological Organization (IRIMO for the 41 years from 1965 to 2005. The FAO Penman-Monteith equation was used to calculate the monthly reference evapotranspiration in the five synoptic stations and the evapotranspiration time series were formed. The unit root test was used to identify whether the time series was stationary, then using the Box-Jenkins method, seasonal ARIMA models were applied to the sample data. Table 1. The geographical location and climate conditions of the synoptic stations Station\tGeographical location\tAltitude (m\tMean air temperature (°C\tMean precipitation (mm\tClimate, according to the De Martonne index classification Longitude (E\tLatitude (N Annual\tMin. and Max. Esfahan\t51° 40'\t32° 37'\t1550.4\t16.36\t9.4-23.3\t122\tArid Semnan\t53° 33'\t35° 35'\t1130.8\t18.0\t12.4-23.8\t140\tArid Shiraz\t52° 36'\t29° 32'\t1484\t18.0\t10.2-25.9\t324\tSemi-arid Kerman\t56° 58'\t30° 15'\t1753.8\t15.6\t6.7-24.6\t142\tArid Yazd\t54° 17'\t31° 54'\t1237.2\t19.2\t11.8-26.0\t61\tArid Results and Discussion: The monthly meteorological data were used as input for the Ref-ET software and monthly reference

  4. Reasonable Forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, Kelley R.

    2010-01-01

    This article presents a sample legal battle that illustrates school officials' "reasonable forecasts" of substantial disruption in the school environment. In 2006, two students from a Texas high school came to school carrying purses decorated with images of the Confederate flag. The school district has a zero-tolerance policy for…

  5. Neural network versus classical time series forecasting models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nor, Maria Elena; Safuan, Hamizah Mohd; Shab, Noorzehan Fazahiyah Md; Asrul, Mohd; Abdullah, Affendi; Mohamad, Nurul Asmaa Izzati; Lee, Muhammad Hisyam

    2017-05-01

    Artificial neural network (ANN) has advantage in time series forecasting as it has potential to solve complex forecasting problems. This is because ANN is data driven approach which able to be trained to map past values of a time series. In this study the forecast performance between neural network and classical time series forecasting method namely seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average models was being compared by utilizing gold price data. Moreover, the effect of different data preprocessing on the forecast performance of neural network being examined. The forecast accuracy was evaluated using mean absolute deviation, root mean square error and mean absolute percentage error. It was found that ANN produced the most accurate forecast when Box-Cox transformation was used as data preprocessing.

  6. Making sense of absolute measurement: James Clerk Maxwell, William Thomson, Fleeming Jenkin, and the invention of the dimensional formula

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitchell, Daniel Jon

    2017-05-01

    During the 1860s, the Committee on Electrical Standards convened by the British Association for the Advancement of Science (BAAS) attempted to articulate, refine, and realize a system of absolute electrical measurement. I describe how this context led to the invention of the dimensional formula by James Clerk Maxwell and subsequently shaped its interpretation, in particular through the attempts of William Thomson and Fleeming Jenkin to make absolute electrical measurement intelligible to telegraph engineers. I identify unit conversion as the canonical purpose for dimensional formulae during the remainder of the nineteenth century and go on to explain how an operational interpretation was developed by the French physicist Gabriel Lippmann. The focus on the dimensional formula reveals how various conceptual, theoretical, and material aspects of absolute electrical measurement were taken up or resisted in experimental physics, telegraphic engineering, and electrical practice more broadly, which leads to the conclusion that the integration of electrical theory and telegraphic practice was far harder to achieve and maintain than historians have previously thought. This ultimately left a confusing legacy of dimensional concepts and practices in physics.

  7. BoxPlot++

    OpenAIRE

    Azmeh, Zeina; Hamoui, Fady; Huchard, Marianne

    2011-01-01

    We propose the BoxPlot++ as an extension of Tukey's boxplot. We improve the resulting data values distribution by removing the repeated values and by calculating distances between the points and the nearest median.

  8. Boxes and Shelves

    OpenAIRE

    Hughes, Dean

    2008-01-01

    The Boxes and Shelves series from 2008 are are all made from the backing card from discarded writing pads. Boxes and Shelves extended my investigation of quotidian materials and their relationship to the origins of creative toil. Since 1996 my research has sought to identify and locate instances where the 'unmeasurable' meets the measurable. I have consistently employed a range of utilitarian materials such as bus seats, bus tickets, puddles, A4 writing paper, to present a series of 'problem ...

  9. Freedom to box.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Warburton, N

    1998-02-01

    The british Medical Association wants to criminalise all boxing. This article examines the logic of the arguments it uses and finds them wanting. The move from medical evidence about the risk of brain damage to the conclusion that boxing should be banned is not warranted. The BMA's arguments are a combination of inconsistent paternalism and legal moralism. Consistent application of the principles implicit in the BMA's arguments would lead to absurd consequences and to severe limitations being put on individual freedom.

  10. Cable Tester Box

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Jason H.

    2011-01-01

    Cables are very important electrical devices that carry power and signals across multiple instruments. Any fault in a cable can easily result in a catastrophic outcome. Therefore, verifying that all cables are built to spec is a very important part of Electrical Integration Procedures. Currently, there are two methods used in lab for verifying cable connectivity. (1) Using a Break-Out Box and an ohmmeter this method is time-consuming but effective for custom cables and (2) Commercial Automated Cable Tester Boxes this method is fast, but to test custom cables often requires pre-programmed configuration files, and cables used on spacecraft are often uniquely designed for specific purposes. The idea is to develop a semi-automatic continuity tester that reduces human effort in cable testing, speeds up the electrical integration process, and ensures system safety. The JPL-Cable Tester Box is developed to check every single possible electrical connection in a cable in parallel. This system indicates connectivity through LED (light emitting diode) circuits. Users can choose to test any pin/shell (test node) with a single push of a button, and any other nodes that are shorted to the test node, even if they are in the same connector, will light up with the test node. The JPL-Cable Tester Boxes offers the following advantages: 1. Easy to use: The architecture is simple enough that it only takes 5 minutes for anyone to learn how operate the Cable Tester Box. No pre-programming and calibration are required, since this box only checks continuity. 2. Fast: The cable tester box checks all the possible electrical connections in parallel at a push of a button. If a cable normally takes half an hour to test, using the Cable Tester Box will improve the speed to as little as 60 seconds to complete. 3. Versatile: Multiple cable tester boxes can be used together. As long as all the boxes share the same electrical potential, any number of connectors can be tested together.

  11. Probabilistic runoff volume forecasting in risk-based optimization for RTC of urban drainage systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Löwe, Roland; Vezzaro, Luca; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen

    2016-01-01

    This article demonstrates the incorporation of stochastic grey-box models for urban runoff forecasting into a full-scale, system-wide control setup where setpoints are dynamically optimized considering forecast uncertainty and sensitivity of overflow locations in order to reduce combined sewer...... overflow risk. The stochastic control framework and the performance of the runoff forecasting models are tested in a case study in Copenhagen (76 km2 with 6 sub-catchments and 7 control points) using 2-h radar rainfall forecasts and inlet flows to control points computed from a variety of noisy....../oscillating in-sewer measurements. Radar rainfall forecasts as model inputs yield considerably lower runoff forecast skills than “perfect” gauge-based rainfall observations (ex-post hindcasting). Nevertheless, the stochastic grey-box models clearly outperform benchmark forecast models based on exponential...

  12. The BOXES Methodology Black Box Dynamic Control

    CERN Document Server

    Russell, David W

    2012-01-01

    Robust control mechanisms customarily require knowledge of the system’s describing equations which may be of the high order differential type.  In order to produce these equations, mathematical models can often be derived and correlated with measured dynamic behavior.  There are two flaws in this approach one is the level of inexactness introduced by linearizations and the other when no model is apparent.  Several years ago a new genre of control systems came to light that are much less dependent on differential models such as fuzzy logic and genetic algorithms. Both of these soft computing solutions require quite considerable a priori system knowledge to create a control scheme and sometimes complicated training program before they can be implemented in a real world dynamic system. Michie and Chambers’ BOXES methodology created a black box system that was designed to control a mechanically unstable system with very little a priori system knowledge, linearization or approximation.  All the method need...

  13. pawg Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

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    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  15. kelp Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

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    Data.gov (United States)

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  17. keld Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  18. kewr Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  19. paom Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  20. ksan Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

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    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

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    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

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    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  4. kbuf Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

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    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

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    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

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    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  8. kabe Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  9. pahn Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

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    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

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    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

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    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

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    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

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    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

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    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

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    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

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    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

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    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

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    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

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    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

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    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

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    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

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    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

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    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

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    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

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    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

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    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

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    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

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    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

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    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

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    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  20. kgpt Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  1. kflo Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  2. keri Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  3. kcid Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  4. ksaf Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  5. kcvg Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  6. ptya Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  7. katl Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  8. kmth Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  9. Opto-Box

    CERN Document Server

    Bertsche, David; The ATLAS collaboration; Welch, Steven; Smith, Dale Shane; Che, Siinn; Gan, K.K.; Boyd, George Russell Jr

    2015-01-01

    The opto-box is a custom mini-crate for housing optical modules, which process and transfer optoelectronic data. The system tightly integrates electrical, mechanical, and thermal functionality into a small package of size 35x10x8 cm^3. Special attention was given to ensure proper shielding, grounding, cooling, high reliability, and environmental tolerance. The custom modules, which incorporate Application Specific Integrated Circuits (ASICs), were developed through a cycle of rigorous testing and redesign. In total, fourteen opto-boxes have been installed and loaded with modules on the ATLAS detector. They are currently in operation as part of the LHC run 2 data read-out chain.

  10. Teaching with Box Tops.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raiser, Lynne; D'Zamko, Mary Elizabeth

    1984-01-01

    Using environmental materials (such as the phone book and placemats from fast food restaurants) can be a motivating way to teach learning disabled students skills and concepts, as shown in an approach to reading, math, science and nutrition, and social studies instruction using a JELL-O brand gelatin box. (CL)

  11. Many-box locality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Yuqian; Cai, Yu; Bancal, Jean-Daniel; Gao, Fei; Scarani, Valerio

    2017-11-01

    There is an ongoing search for a physical or operational definition for quantum mechanics. Several informational principles have been proposed which are satisfied by a theory less restrictive than quantum mechanics. Here, we introduce the principle of "many-box locality," which is a refined version of the previously proposed "macroscopic locality." These principles are based on coarse graining the statistics of several copies of a given box. The set of behaviors satisfying many-box locality for N boxes is denoted LNM B. We study these sets in the bipartite scenario with two binary measurements, in relation with the sets Q and Q1 +A B of quantum and "almost quantum" correlations, respectively. We find that the LNM B sets are, in general, not convex. For unbiased marginals, by working in the Fourier space we can prove analytically that LNM B⊈Q for any finite N , while L∞M B=Q . Then, with suitably developed numerical tools, we find an example of a point that belongs to L16M B but not to Q1 +A B. Among the problems that remain open is whether Q ⊂L∞M B .

  12. IN-A-BOX

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Journals; Resonance – Journal of Science Education; Volume 7; Issue 2. Claude Elwood Shannon. Priti Shankar. Article-in-a-Box Volume 7 Issue 2 February 2002 pp 2-3. Fulltext. Click here to view fulltext PDF. Permanent link: http://www.ias.ac.in/article/fulltext/reso/007/02/0002-0003. Author Affiliations.

  13. Mystery Box Marvels

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santos, Joel; Centurio, Tina

    2012-01-01

    What happens in the first week of school could very well set the stage for the rest of the school year. Setting high standards for science activities based in inquiry can start on the first day of science class and develop as the year unfolds. With the use of simple, readily available, inexpensive materials, an efficient mystery box lesson can be…

  14. Operant-Box Sociology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dimond, Stuart J.

    1971-01-01

    Sketches a model which considers society a teacher which instructs like an operant box..." The author contends that the family, the school, the play group, the adolescent gang, the office, the prison, the mental hospital, each reward, instruct and control the individual who learns by operant means what the institution teaches." (Author/AL)

  15. Electricity consumption forecasting using singular spectrum analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Moisés Lima de Menezes

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available El Análisis Espectral Singular (AES es una técnica no paramétrica que permite la descomposición de una serie de tiempo en una componente de señal y otra de ruido. De este modo, AES es una técnica útil para la extracción de la tendencia, la suavización y el filtro una serie de tiempo. En este artículo se investiga el efecto sobre el desempeño los modelos de Holt-Winters y de Box & Jenkins al ser aplicados a una serie de tiempo filtrada por AES. Tres diferentes metodologías son evaluadas con el enfoque de AES: Análisis de Componentes Principales (ACP, análisis de conglomerados y análisis gráfico de vectores singulares. Con el fin de ilustrar y comparar dichas metodologías, en este trabajo también se presentaron los principales resultados de un experimento computacional para el consumo residencial mensual de electricidad en Brasil.

  16. Weather forecast

    CERN Document Server

    Courtier, P

    1994-02-07

    Weather prediction is performed using the numerical model of the atmosphere evolution.The evolution equations are derived from the Navier Stokes equation for the adiabatic part but the are very much complicated by the change of phase of water, the radiation porocess and the boundary layer.The technique used operationally is described. Weather prediction is an initial value problem and accurate initial conditions need to be specified. Due to the small number of observations available (105 ) as compared to the dimension of the model state variable (107),the problem is largely underdetermined. Techniques of optimal control and inverse problems are used and have been adapted to the large dimension of our problem. our problem.The at mosphere is a chaotic system; the implication for weather prediction is discussed. Ensemble prediction is used operationally and the technique for generating initial conditions which lead to a numerical divergence of the subsequent forecasts is described.

  17. Number 13 / Part I. Music. 6. Requiem by Karl Jenkins. An Analytical Approach to The Interweaving of Various Traditions in Music

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iațeșen Loredana Viorica

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available In the diverse space of contemporary music, the fascinating and controversial personality of the Welsh composer Karl Jenkins, which is surprising from several perspectives, stands out. Open to assimilating and processing music from various sources (academic, liturgical, folk, entertainment, oriental, exotic, the all-round musician Karl Jenkins impresses the public with unexpected artistic choices, giving up the hypostasis of instrumentalist of the jazz-rock band Nucleus and of the group Softmachine in favour of the postmodern creator he has become today, synthetizing trends from musical compositions of the last decades of the 20th century. Once with the return to the functional system, either through minimalism or through neo-romanticism, the artist has successfully covered a potential sonority path of modern opposites, also evoking references to creative models of the past. We are referring to the musical valorizing of the sacred in a synthetic vision between tradition and innovation, in the works included in the Adiemus cycle, in the opus choir Missa for Peace and, more particularly, in the Requiem (2005, a significant score in the contemporaneity. The manner in which the composer, while resorting to a musical genre originating from the Roman Catholic cult and drawing on the liturgical text of the Mass for the dead, inserted Japanese poetry, written following the structure of haiku, belonging to representative authors - Gozan Koshigaya, Issho Kosughi, Hokusai Katsushika, Kaga-no-Chiyo, is highly surprising. This study aims to highlight the interweaving imagined by Karl Jenkins between the two cultures as well as to conduct a semantic analysis of an opus in which the relationships between music and words entail a highly emotional response.

  18. Hermit Points on a Box

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hess, Richard; Grinstead, Charles; Grindstead, Marshall; Bergstrand, Deborah

    2008-01-01

    Suppose that we are given a rectangular box in 3-space. Given any two points on the surface of this box, we can define the surface distance between them to be the length of the shortest path between them on the surface of the box. This paper determines the pairs of points of maximum surface distance for all boxes. It is often the case that these…

  19. Are Forecast Updates Progressive?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    C-L. Chang (Chia-Lin); Ph.H.B.F. Franses (Philip Hans); M.J. McAleer (Michael)

    2010-01-01

    textabstractMacro-economic forecasts typically involve both a model component, which is replicable, as well as intuition, which is non-replicable. Intuition is expert knowledge possessed by a forecaster. If forecast updates are progressive, forecast updates should become more accurate, on average,

  20. Are Forecast Updates Progressive?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    C-L. Chang (Chia-Lin); Ph.H.B.F. Franses (Philip Hans); M.J. McAleer (Michael)

    2013-01-01

    textabstractMany macroeconomic forecasts and forecast updates like those from IMF and OECD typically involve both a model component, which is replicable, as well as intuition, which is non-replicable. Intuition is expert knowledge possessed by a forecaster. If forecast updates are progressive,

  1. Flood forecasting for the upper reach of the Red River Basin, North ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Flood forecasting remains a very important task. Good forecast values with sufficient lead time, can help reduce flood damages signiticarttly. This paper proposes two types of black-box model obtained by using multiple regression analysis and back- propagation neural networks in forecavting 6-h water levels at three ...

  2. Probabilistic Forecasting for On-line Operation of Urban Drainage Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Löwe, Roland

    predictions of runoff volume in an on-line setting, - develop a new approach for dynamically modelling runoff forecast uncertainty. We investigate how rainfall inputs can be optimally combined for runoff forecasting with stochastic grey-box models and what effect different types of radar rainfall measurements...

  3. Analysis of Tendencies Towards Changes in Temperatures of Railway Vehicle Axle Boxes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olegas Lunys

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available The paper analyzes variations in the temperature of axle-box heating of railroad rolling stock considering two modes of the train - driving and parking position. Additionally, the article describes the influence of the axle load and season on the heat of the axle-box, forecasts intolerable residual resources and explains a possibility of detecting likely breakage at the very beginning of defects. The paper also deals with scientific literature related to axle-box heating and focuses on the conducted practical and theoretical experiments. The carried out research has established the rates of operating heating and critical heating. The application of numerical values for the algorithm of automatic control devices could help with detecting the breakdowns of the axle-box before they reach a critical state and assist in forecasting residual operating resources.

  4. Opto-Box

    CERN Document Server

    AUTHOR|(INSPIRE)INSPIRE-00377159; The ATLAS collaboration

    2015-01-01

    The opto-box is a custom mini-crate for housing optical modules, which process and transfer optoelectronic data. Many novel solutions were developed for the custom design and manufacturing. The system tightly integrates electrical, mechanical, and thermal functionality into a small package of size 35x10x8 cm$^{3}$. Special attention was given to ensure proper shielding, grounding, cooling, high reliability, and environmental tolerance. The custom modules, which incorporate Application Specific Integrated Circuits (ASICs), were developed through a cycle of rigorous testing and redesign. In total, fourteen opto-boxes have been installed and loaded with modules on the ATLAS detector. They are currently in operation as part of the LHC run 2 data read-out chain.

  5. Boxed Permutation Pattern Matching

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Amit, Mika; Bille, Philip; Cording, Patrick Hagge

    2016-01-01

    the goal is to only find the boxed subsequences of T that are order-isomorphic to P. This problem was introduced by Bruner and Lackner who showed that it can be solved in O(n3) time. Cho et al. [CPM 2015] gave an O(n2m) time algorithm and improved it to O(n2 logm). In this paper we present a solution...

  6. Forecasting Global Point Rainfall using ECMWF's Ensemble Forecasting System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pillosu, Fatima; Hewson, Timothy; Zsoter, Ervin; Baugh, Calum

    2017-04-01

    ECMWF (the European Centre for Medium range Weather Forecasts), in collaboration with the EFAS (European Flood Awareness System) and GLOFAS (GLObal Flood Awareness System) teams, has developed a new operational system that post-processes grid box rainfall forecasts from its ensemble forecasting system to provide global probabilistic point-rainfall predictions. The project attains a higher forecasting skill by applying an understanding of how different rainfall generation mechanisms lead to different degrees of sub-grid variability in rainfall totals. In turn this approach facilitates identification of cases in which very localized extreme totals are much more likely. This approach aims also to improve the rainfall input required in different hydro-meteorological applications. Flash flood forecasting, in particular in urban areas, is a good example. In flash flood scenarios precipitation is typically characterised by high spatial variability and response times are short. In this case, to move beyond radar based now casting, the classical approach has been to use very high resolution hydro-meteorological models. Of course these models are valuable but they can represent only very limited areas, may not be spatially accurate and may give reasonable results only for limited lead times. On the other hand, our method aims to use a very cost-effective approach to downscale global rainfall forecasts to a point scale. It needs only rainfall totals from standard global reporting stations and forecasts over a relatively short period to train it, and it can give good results even up to day 5. For these reasons we believe that this approach better satisfies user needs around the world. This presentation aims to describe two phases of the project: The first phase, already completed, is the implementation of this new system to provide 6 and 12 hourly point-rainfall accumulation probabilities. To do this we use a limited number of physically relevant global model parameters (i

  7. Small, Lightweight, Collapsible Glove Box

    Science.gov (United States)

    James, Jerry

    2009-01-01

    A small, lightweight, collapsible glove box enables its user to perform small experiments and other tasks. Originally intended for use aboard a space shuttle or the International Space Station (ISS), this glove box could also be attractive for use on Earth in settings in which work space or storage space is severely limited and, possibly, in which it is desirable to minimize weight. The development of this glove box was prompted by the findings that in the original space-shuttle or ISS setting, (1) it was necessary to perform small experiments in a large general-purpose work station, so that, in effect, they occupied excessive space; and it took excessive amounts of time to set up small experiments. The design of the glove box reflects the need to minimize the space occupied by experiments and the time needed to set up experiments, plus the requirement to limit the launch weight of the box and the space needed to store the box during transport into orbit. To prepare the glove box for use, the astronaut or other user has merely to insert hands through the two fabric glove ports in the side walls of the box and move two hinges to a locking vertical position (see figure). The user could do this while seated with the glove box on the user fs lap. When stowed, the glove box is flat and has approximately the thickness of two pieces of 8-in. (.20 cm) polycarbonate.

  8. Global Energy Forecasting Competition 2012

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hong, Tao; Pinson, Pierre; Fan, Shu

    2014-01-01

    The Global Energy Forecasting Competition (GEFCom2012) attracted hundreds of participants worldwide, who contributed many novel ideas to the energy forecasting field. This paper introduces both tracks of GEFCom2012, hierarchical load forecasting and wind power forecasting, with details...

  9. Improving Software Reliability Forecasting

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Burtsy, Bernard; Albeanu, Grigore; Boros, Dragos N.; Popentiu, Florin; Nicola, V.F.

    1996-01-01

    This work investigates some methods for software reliability forecasting. A supermodel is presented as a suited tool for prediction of reliability in software project development. Also, times series forecasting for cumulative interfailure time is proposed and illustrated.

  10. Forecasts of land uses

    Science.gov (United States)

    David N. Wear

    2013-01-01

    Key FindingsBetween 30 million and 43 million acres of land in the South are forecasted to be developed for urban uses by 2060 from a base of 30 million acres in 1997. These forecasts are based on a continuation of historical development intensities.From 1997 to 2060, the South is forecasted to lose between 11 million acres (7...

  11. Operational river discharge forecasting in poorly gauged basins: the Kavango River basin case study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bauer-Gottwein, Peter; Jensen, Iris Hedegaard; Guzinski, R.

    2015-01-01

    Operational probabilistic forecasts of river discharge are essential for effective water resources management. Many studies have addressed this topic using different approaches ranging from purely statistical black-box approaches to physically based and distributed modeling schemes employing data...... in Africa. We present an operational probabilistic forecasting approach which uses public-domain climate forcing data and a hydrologic-hydrodynamic model which is entirely based on open-source software. Data assimilation techniques are used to inform the forecasts with the latest available observations....... Forecasts are produced in real time for lead times of 0-7 days. The operational probabilistic forecasts are evaluated using a selection of performance statistics and indicators and the performance is compared to persistence and climatology benchmarks. The forecasting system delivers useful forecasts...

  12. Spirit Boxes: Expressions of Culture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeMuro, Ted

    1984-01-01

    After studying the culture and art of the ancient civilizations of South America, Mesopotamia, Greece, and Egypt, secondary level art students made spirit boxes as expressions of the various cultures. How to make the boxes and how to prepare the face molds are described. (RM)

  13. Being Creative "Inside the Box"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tomascoff, Rocky

    2011-01-01

    Artist Joseph Cornell (1903-1972) created wonderful environments inside boxes using mostly found objects. They were often Surrealistic in nature. Some boxes were designed with glass fronts, and others were meant to be interactive with the viewer, wherein the objects could be handled. With Joseph Cornell in mind, the author introduces an art…

  14. Box-and-Whisker Plots.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larsen, Russell D.

    1985-01-01

    Box-and-whisker plots (which give rapid visualization of batches of data) can be effectively used to present diverse collections of data used in traditional first-year chemistry courses. Construction of box-and-whisker plots and their use with bond energy data and data on heats of formation and solution are discussed. (JN)

  15. Estimation and prediction of origin-destination matrices for I-66.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-09-01

    This project uses the Box-Jenkins time-series technique to model and forecast the traffic flows and then : uses the flow forecasts to predict the origin-destination matrices. First, a detailed analysis was conducted : to investigate the best data cor...

  16. Energy forecast. Final report; Energiudsigten. Slutrapport

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2010-04-15

    A number of instruments, i.e. Internet, media campaigns, boxes displaying electricity prices (SEE1) and spot contract has been tested for households to shift their electricity consumption to times when prices are low. Of the implemented media campaigns, only the daily viewing of Energy forecast on TV had an impact. Consumers gained greater knowledge of electricity prices and electricity consumption loads, but only showed little interest in shifting electricity consumption. However, a measurable effect appeared at night with the group that had both concluded a spot contract and received an SEE1. These factors increase the awareness of the price of electricity and the possibility of shifting electricity consumption. (Energy 10)

  17. Long-range forecasting of intermittent streamflow

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. F. van Ogtrop

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available Long-range forecasting of intermittent streamflow in semi-arid Australia poses a number of major challenges. One of the challenges relates to modelling zero, skewed, non-stationary, and non-linear data. To address this, a statistical model to forecast streamflow up to 12 months ahead is applied to five semi-arid catchments in South Western Queensland. The model uses logistic regression through Generalised Additive Models for Location, Scale and Shape (GAMLSS to determine the probability of flow occurring in any of the systems. We then use the same regression framework in combination with a right-skewed distribution, the Box-Cox t distribution, to model the intensity (depth of the non-zero streamflows. Time, seasonality and climate indices, describing the Pacific and Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures, are tested as covariates in the GAMLSS model to make probabilistic 6 and 12-month forecasts of the occurrence and intensity of streamflow. The output reveals that in the study region the occurrence and variability of flow is driven by sea surface temperatures and therefore forecasts can be made with some skill.

  18. Forecasters priorities for improving probabilistic flood forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wetterhall, F.; Pappenberger, F.; Cloke, H. L.; Thielen-del Pozo, J.; Balabanova, S.; Daňhelka, J.; Vogelbacher, A.; Salamon, P.; Carrasco, I.; Cabrera-Tordera, A. J.; Corzo-Toscano, M.; Garcia-Padilla, M.; Garcia-Sanchez, R. J.; Ardilouze, C.; Jurela, S.; Terek, B.; Csik, A.; Casey, J.; Stankūnavičius, G.; Ceres, V.; Sprokkereef, E.; Stam, J.; Anghel, E.; Vladikovic, D.; Alionte Eklund, C.; Hjerdt, N.; Djerv, H.; Holmberg, F.; Nilsson, J.; Nyström, K.; Sušnik, M.; Hazlinger, M.; Holubecka, M.

    2013-02-01

    Hydrological ensemble prediction systems (HEPS) have in recent years been increasingly used for the operational forecasting of floods by hydrometeorological agencies. The most obvious advantages of HEPS are that more of the uncertainty in the modelling system can be assessed; and that ensemble prediction systems generally have better skill than deterministic systems both in the terms of the mean forecast performance and the potential forecasting of extreme events. Research efforts have so far mostly been devoted to the improvement of the technical aspects of the model systems themselves. However, in this paper we argue that there are other areas of HEPS that need urgent attention; such as assessment of the full uncertainty in the forecast chain, multimodel approaches, robust forecast skill assessment and further collaboration and knowledge exchange between operational forecasters and the model development community. In light of limited resources we suggest a simple model to classify the identified priorities in terms of their cost and complexity to decide in which order to tackle them This model is then used to create an action plan of short-, medium- and long-term research priorities with the ultimate goal of an optimal improvement in operational HEPS.

  19. Microclimate boxes for panel paintings

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wadum, Jørgen

    1998-01-01

    The use of microclimate boxes to protect vulnerable panel paintings is, therefore, not a new phenomenon of the past two or three decades. Rather, it has been a concern for conservators and curators to protect these objects of art at home and in transit since the end of the nineteenth century....... The increased number of travelling exhibitions in recent years has heightened the need to protect paintings during circulation (Thomson 1961; Mecklenburg 1991). The use and design of microclimate boxes have been evolving since 1892. These boxes may be divided into three broad groups: those using an active...

  20. Two-dimensional box plot

    OpenAIRE

    Phattrawan Tongkumchum

    2005-01-01

    In this paper we propose a two-dimensional box plot, a simple bivariate extension of the box plot and the scatter plot. This plot comprises a pair of trapeziums oriented in the direction of a fitted straight line, with symbols denoting extreme values. The choice for the fitted straight resistant line showing the relationship between the two variables is Tukey’s resistance line. The main components of the plot are an inner box containing 50% of the projection points of the observations on the ...

  1. Evaluating probability forecasts

    OpenAIRE

    Lai, Tze Leung; Gross, Shulamith T.; Shen, David Bo

    2011-01-01

    Probability forecasts of events are routinely used in climate predictions, in forecasting default probabilities on bank loans or in estimating the probability of a patient's positive response to treatment. Scoring rules have long been used to assess the efficacy of the forecast probabilities after observing the occurrence, or nonoccurrence, of the predicted events. We develop herein a statistical theory for scoring rules and propose an alternative approach to the evaluation of probability for...

  2. Commuter Airline Forecasts,

    Science.gov (United States)

    1981-05-01

    conterminous United States (48 contiguous states and the District of Columbia), for the State of Hawaii, and for the U.S. Carribean areas, Puerto Rico and U.S...FAA 15. Supplementary Notes I Abstract This publication presents forecasts of cammuter air carrier activity and describes the models designed for...forecasting Contenninous United States, Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, Hawaii, and individual airport activity. These forecasts take into account the

  3. DIRECT KICKS IN BOXING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Izet Kahrović

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available Hit directly, giving any impact maximum muscle strength is skill, and it is neces- sary to the exercise and learning to make it perfect. Training begins with oral statement, so that students get to know with the techni- que that works. After oral exposure, it is necessary to create a good notion on technology that is adopted. The best way for the creation of good notion is a good demonstration. In direct training kicks in the box, you need patience and gradualness and there- fore uses a large number of additional exercises. In their work with beginners, in the first class, individual elements of technology, and also direct blow, it is necessary to separate the parts and run them on multiple commands, to later come to the confluence in one command. Direct wounds, with left and right hand, can be run from the towns, on the head and body, from the movement, to step forward, step back and step aside, the remedy to the left and right side. Left direct is taking out from a running protrusion hands, but kick, which is a pro- duct of the system, ankle-knee-pelvis and shoulder forward horizontaly. Set at the time of stripes, body weight over the left leg. Right direct from the place, starting ekscentrical reflecsive impuls of a extensor muscle in ankle, knee and joint of a hip.This kind of a sud- den movement is running simultaneously with the rotation of the body around vertical (longitudinal axis, with the transfer body weight on the left leg. Further movement to the hand which serves as a lever, which is transmitted through the power stroke

  4. Forecaster priorities for improving probabilistic flood forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wetterhall, Fredrik; Pappenberger, Florian; Alfieri, Lorenzo; Cloke, Hannah; Thielen, Jutta

    2014-05-01

    Hydrological ensemble prediction systems (HEPS) have in recent years been increasingly used for the operational forecasting of floods by European hydrometeorological agencies. The most obvious advantage of HEPS is that more of the uncertainty in the modelling system can be assessed. In addition, ensemble prediction systems generally have better skill than deterministic systems both in the terms of the mean forecast performance and the potential forecasting of extreme events. Research efforts have so far mostly been devoted to the improvement of the physical and technical aspects of the model systems, such as increased resolution in time and space and better description of physical processes. Developments like these are certainly needed; however, in this paper we argue that there are other areas of HEPS that need urgent attention. This was also the result from a group exercise and a survey conducted to operational forecasters within the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS) to identify the top priorities of improvement regarding their own system. They turned out to span a range of areas, the most popular being to include verification of an assessment of past forecast performance, a multi-model approach for hydrological modelling, to increase the forecast skill on the medium range (>3 days) and more focus on education and training on the interpretation of forecasts. In light of limited resources, we suggest a simple model to classify the identified priorities in terms of their cost and complexity to decide in which order to tackle them. This model is then used to create an action plan of short-, medium- and long-term research priorities with the ultimate goal of an optimal improvement of EFAS in particular and to spur the development of operational HEPS in general.

  5. Inaccuracy in traffic forecasts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Flyvbjerg, Bent; Holm, Mette K. Skamris; Buhl, Søren Ladegaard

    2006-01-01

    This paper presents results from the first statistically significant study of traffic forecasts in transportation infrastructure projects. The sample used is the largest of its kind, covering 210 projects in 14 nations worth US$58 billion. The study shows with very high statistical significance...... that forecasters generally do a poor job of estimating the demand for transportation infrastructure projects. The result is substantial downside financial and economic risk. Forecasts have not become more accurate over the 30-year period studied. If techniques and skills for arriving at accurate demand forecasts...

  6. Steam coal forecaster

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2006-07-01

    This quarterly forecasting service provides a short-term analysis and predictions of the international steam coal trade. Sections are entitled: market review; world steam coal at a glance; economics/foreign exchange; demand (reviewing the main purchasing companies country-by-country); supply (country-by-country information on the main producers of steam coal); and freight. A subscription to Steam Coal Forecaster provides: a monthly PDF of McCloskey's Steam Coal Forecaster sent by email; access to database of stories in Steam Coal Forecaster via the search function; and online access to the latest issue of Steam Coal.

  7. Box Plots: Basic and Advanced.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mullenex, James L.

    1990-01-01

    Describes a five-number summary which is a display of the minimum value, lower quartile, median, upper quartile, and maximum value. Indicates how to draw box plots as graphical representations of a five-number summary. (YP)

  8. Implementace hry Dots and Boxes

    OpenAIRE

    Balko, Martin

    2010-01-01

    Title: Dots and Boxes implementation Author: Martin Balko Department: Department of Applied Mathematics Supervisor: RNDr. Ondřej Pangrác, Ph.D. Supervisor's email address: Abstract: The presented thesis deals with the analysis of a popular logical game Dots and Boxes and its generalized versions. It focuses on the different methods and algorithms of opponent's artificial intelligence. The result of the work is implementation of the generalized version of this game in w...

  9. House Price Forecasts, Forecaster Herding, and the Recent Crisis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stadtmann, Georg; Pierdzioch; Ruelke

    2013-01-01

    We used the Wall Street Journal survey data for the period 2006–2012 to analyze whether forecasts of house prices and housing starts provide evidence of (anti-)herding of forecasters. Forecasts are consistent with herding (anti-herding) of forecasters if forecasts are biased towards (away from......) the consensus forecast. We found that anti-herding is prevalent among forecasters of house prices. We also report that, following the recent crisis, the prevalence of forecaster anti-herding seems to have changed over time....

  10. World Area Forecast System (WAFS)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The World Area Forecast System (WAFS) is a worldwide system by which world area forecast centers provide aeronautical meteorological en-route forecasts in uniform...

  11. Thinking Outside the Box

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Green, Lorne [World Nuclear Transport Institute, Remo House, 310-312 Regent Street, London, W1B 3AX (United Kingdom)

    2009-06-15

    The World Nuclear Transport Institute was formed to fill a need to provide a dedicated vehicle for the radioactive transport and packaging industry sectors worldwide, to exchange information and ideas, all with a view to working toward consolidated industry positions on the key issues affecting safe, efficient and reliable transport. WNTI was also intended to be a strong voice for industry in those international and national bodies where deliberations on such transport safety issues take place. The very fact that companies, sometimes in competition with each other, were prepared to come together in this way, reflects two important points: firstly, it represents an acknowledgement on industry's part that safe, effective and reliable transport is the sine qua non, the absolute essential. And second, it is a recognition that it is enhanced to the extent that industry is able to collaborate to this end. This is thinking outside the box. Another important attribute of safety is 'stability'. Everyone likes to know where he or she stands. The radioactive materials packaging and transport industry thrives within a stable regulatory framework for safety. For a stable regulatory regime allows operators to be properly trained; it allows operators to become familiar with safety requirements, and to be at ease with them. Stability is conducive to safety and efficiency. Stability is good for business too - for stability in package and transport requirements allows sufficient time for a fair return on investment in expensive package design, manufacture, licensing and use over time. Stability should not, however, be opposed to creativity. From experience we can develop new thinking to improve efficiency as illustrated in examples of work related to the packaging and transport of Uranium Concentrates for instance.. Another example is work within WNTI on the thermal test requirements for the packaging of uranium hexafluoride. The robustness of packages is based on the

  12. Comparison of black-box, glass-box and open-box software for aiding conceptual understanding

    OpenAIRE

    Hosein, Anesa; Aczel, James; Clow, Doug; Richardson, John T E

    2008-01-01

    Three mathematical software types: black-box (no steps shown), glass-box (steps shown) and open-box (interactive steps) were used by 32 students to solve conceptual and procedural tasks on the computer via remote observation. Comparison of the three software types suggests that there is no difference in the scores that students receive for conceptual understanding tasks. Students using the black-box are more likely to explore answers than students using the glass and open-box software.

  13. Improving Garch Volatility Forecasts

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Klaassen, F.J.G.M.

    1998-01-01

    Many researchers use GARCH models to generate volatility forecasts. We show, however, that such forecasts are too variable. To correct for this, we extend the GARCH model by distinguishing two regimes with different volatility levels. GARCH effects are allowed within each regime, so that our model

  14. Forecasts of forest conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robert Huggett; David N. Wear; Ruhong Li; John Coulston; Shan Liu

    2013-01-01

    Key FindingsAmong the five forest management types, only planted pine is expected to increase in area. In 2010 planted pine comprised 19 percent of southern forests. By 2060, planted pine is forecasted to comprise somewhere between 24 and 36 percent of forest area.Although predicted rates of change vary, all forecasts reveal...

  15. On density forecast evaluation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Diks, C.

    2008-01-01

    Traditionally, probability integral transforms (PITs) have been popular means for evaluating density forecasts. For an ideal density forecast, the PITs should be uniformly distributed on the unit interval and independent. However, this is only a necessary condition, and not a sufficient one, as

  16. Forecasting in Planning

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ike, P.; Voogd, Henk; Voogd, Henk; Linden, Gerard

    2004-01-01

    This chapter begins with a discussion of qualitative forecasting by describing a number of methods that depend on judgements made by stakeholders, experts or other interested parties to arrive at forecasts. Two qualitative approaches are illuminated, the Delphi and scenario methods respectively.

  17. 30 CFR 56.12006 - Distribution boxes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 30 Mineral Resources 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Distribution boxes. 56.12006 Section 56.12006... Distribution boxes. Distribution boxes shall be provided with a disconnecting device for each branch circuit... visual observation when such a device is open and that the circuit is deenergized, the distribution box...

  18. 30 CFR 57.12006 - Distribution boxes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 30 Mineral Resources 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Distribution boxes. 57.12006 Section 57.12006... and Underground § 57.12006 Distribution boxes. Distribution boxes shall be provided with a... deenergized, and the distribution box shall be labeled to show which circuit each device controls. ...

  19. Assessment of storm forecast

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cutululis, Nicolaos Antonio; Hahmann, Andrea N.; Huus Bjerge, Martin

    at analysing the ability of existing forecast tools to predict storms at the Horns Rev 2 wind farm. The focus will be on predicting the time where the wind turbine will need to shut down to protect itself, e.g. the time where wind speed exceeds 25 m/s. At the same time, the planned shut-down should cost...... as little lost wind energy as possible. Therefore, the planned shut down time should be as close as possible to the time where the wind turbine itself would shut down, but still reliable. The forecast systems available to ENERGINET.dk will be applied. The forecast tools ability of accurately predicting...... stopped, completely or partially, producing due to extreme wind speeds. Wind speed and power measurements from those events are presented and compared to the forecast available at Energinet.dk. The analysis looked at wind speed and wind power forecast. The main conclusion of the analysis is that the wind...

  20. First-aid boxes - Reminder

    CERN Multimedia

    GS Department

    2010-01-01

    With a view to ensuring optimum use of the first-aid boxes on the CERN site, we should like to remind you of various changes introduced in March 2009: The TSO of the buildings concerned is responsible for the first-aid boxes, including checking their contents.   First-aid boxes may be restocked ONLY at the CERN stores (SCEM No. 54.99.80). This is no longer possible at the Infirmary. The associated cost is charged to the Departments.   First-aid boxes should be used only for mild injuries. All other cases should be referred to the Medical Service Infirmary (Bldg. 57 – ground-floor, tel. 73802) between 8.00 a.m. and 5.30 p.m. or to the Fire and Rescue Service (tel. 74444). N.B.: This information does not apply to the red emergency first-aid boxes in the underground areas or to the emergency kits for use in the event of being splashed with hydrofluoric acid.

  1. Identifying competencies of boxing coaches

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ioannis Tasiopoulos

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this study was to find out the management skills required by boxing coaches to administrate their clubs. For the purposes of this study a scale was constructed which was answered by 98 boxing coaches. Explanatory factor analysis revealed seven factors: Communication-public relations (5 items, event management (4 items, management techniques (4 items, new technologies (4 items, prevention-safety (2 items, sport (5 items and sports facilities (2 items. The Cronbach of the scale was 0.85. The five competencies that rated by the coaches were: Supervisors of the area of training, maintaining excellent communication with athletes, using new technologies (e-mail, internet, handling disciplinary matters, accidents, complaints and reports on some sporting games and promoted harmony among athletes. We concluded that boxing coaches understand that the competencies required for meeting their obligations, were related to sports, prevention, safety and communications-public relations.

  2. Probabilistic energy forecasting: Global Energy Forecasting Competition 2014 and beyond

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hong, Tao; Pinson, Pierre; Fan, Shu

    2016-01-01

    fundamentally. In this competitive and dynamic environment, many decision-making processes rely on probabilistic forecasts to quantify the uncertain future. Although most of the papers in the energy forecasting literature focus on point or singlevalued forecasts, the research interest in probabilistic energy...... forecasting research has taken off rapidly in recent years. In this paper, we summarize the recent research progress on probabilistic energy forecasting. A major portion of the paper is devoted to introducing the Global Energy Forecasting Competition 2014 (GEFCom2014), a probabilistic energy forecasting...

  3. Spatial electric load forecasting

    CERN Document Server

    Willis, H Lee

    2002-01-01

    Spatial Electric Load Forecasting Consumer Demand for Power and ReliabilityCoincidence and Load BehaviorLoad Curve and End-Use ModelingWeather and Electric LoadWeather Design Criteria and Forecast NormalizationSpatial Load Growth BehaviorSpatial Forecast Accuracy and Error MeasuresTrending MethodsSimulation Method: Basic ConceptsA Detailed Look at the Simulation MethodBasics of Computerized SimulationAnalytical Building Blocks for Spatial SimulationAdvanced Elements of Computerized SimulationHybrid Trending-Simulation MethodsAdvanced

  4. Model selection for forecast combination

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ph.H.B.F. Franses (Philip Hans)

    2008-01-01

    textabstractIn this paper it is advocated to select a model only if it significantly contributes to the accuracy of a combined forecast. Using hold-out-data forecasts of individual models and of the combined forecast, a useful test for equal forecast accuracy can be designed. An illustration for

  5. NYHOPS Forecast Model Results

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — 3D Marine Nowcast/Forecast System for the New York Bight NYHOPS subdomain. Currents, waves, surface meteorology, and water conditions.

  6. NYHOPS Forecast Model Results

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — 3D Marine Nowcast/Forecast System for the New York Bight Apex NYHOPS subdomain. Currents, waves, surface meteorology, and water conditions.

  7. Problems of Forecast

    OpenAIRE

    Kucharavy, Dmitry; De Guio, Roland

    2005-01-01

    International audience; The ability to foresee future technology is a key task of Innovative Design. The paper focuses on the obstacles to reliable prediction of technological evolution for the purpose of Innovative Design. First, a brief analysis of problems for existing forecasting methods is presented. The causes for the complexity of technology prediction are discussed in the context of reduction of the forecast errors. Second, using a contradiction analysis, a set of problems related to ...

  8. Wind Farm Power Forecasting

    OpenAIRE

    Haouas, Nabiha; Bertrand, Pierre R.

    2013-01-01

    Forecasting annual wind power production is useful for the energy industry. Until recently, attention has only been paid to the mean annual wind power energy and statistical uncertainties on this forecasting. Recently, Bensoussan et al. (2012) have pointed that the annual wind power produced by one wind turbine is a Gaussian random variable under a reasonable set of assumptions. Moreover, they can derive both mean and quantiles of annual wind power produced by one wind ...

  9. NEMEFO: NEural MEteorological FOrecast

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pasero, E.; Moniaci, W.; Meindl, T.; Montuori, A. [Polytechnic of Turin (Italy). Dept. of Electronics

    2004-07-01

    Artificial Neural Systems are a well-known technique used to classify and recognize objects. Introducing the time dimension they can be used to forecast numerical series. NEMEFO is a ''nowcasting'' tool, which uses both statistical and neural systems to forecast meteorological data in a restricted area close to a meteorological weather station in a short time range (3 hours). Ice, fog, rain are typical events which can be anticipated by NEMEFO. (orig.)

  10. Expo-Box Contact Us

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA-Expo-Box is a toolbox for exposure assessors. Its purpose is to provide a compendium of exposure assessment and risk characterization tools that will present comprehensive step-by-step guidance and links to relevant exposure assessment data bases, mode

  11. On the Dirichlet's Box Principle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poon, Kin-Keung; Shiu, Wai-Chee

    2008-01-01

    In this note, we will focus on several applications on the Dirichlet's box principle in Discrete Mathematics lesson and number theory lesson. In addition, the main result is an innovative game on a triangular board developed by the authors. The game has been used in teaching and learning mathematics in Discrete Mathematics and some high schools in…

  12. The Bird Box Survey Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Willis, Patrick

    2014-01-01

    When high school students are asked what's the best part of science class, many will say it's the field trips. Students enjoy engaging in authentic, community-based science outside the classroom. To capitalize on this, Patrick Willis created the Bird Box Survey Project for his introductory field biology class. The project takes students…

  13. Forecasting the Brazilian real and the Mexican peso: Asymmetric loss, forecast rationality, and forecaster herding

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stadtmann, Georg; Fritsche, Ulrich; Pierdzioch, Christian

    2015-01-01

    Using forecasts of exchange rates of the Brazilian real and the Mexican peso against the US dollar, we analyze the symmetry of the loss function of exchange-rate forecasters and the rationality of their forecasts. Symmetry of the loss function can be rejected for some forecasters but not all. Even...... when allowing for asymmetric loss functions, the predictions of some forecasters do not fit the traditional definition of rational forecasts. We interpret our results in terms of recent research on forecaster (anti-)herding....

  14. Light Therapy Boxes for Seasonal Affective Disorder

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seasonal affective disorder treatment: Choosing a light therapy box Light therapy boxes can offer an effective treatment for seasonal affective disorder. Features such as light intensity, safety, cost and ...

  15. HEPS challenges the wisdom of the crowds: the PEAK-Box Game. Try it yourself!

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zappa, Massimiliano; Liechti, Kaethi; Pappenberger, Florian; van Andel, Schalk Jan; Ramos, Maria-Helena

    2014-05-01

    In many situations the wisdom of the crowds (Galton, 1907) demonstrated to be superior to the estimation of single individuals. This is maybe one of the reasons why operational hydrometeorological services are more and more recognizing the added value given by ensemble prediction systems. A crowd of members has more wisdom than a single model output. Following a recent tradition, this year a game will also be played during the session on "Ensemble hydro-meteorological forecasting". During this presentation, the crowd attending the session will be asked to estimate the outcome of a probabilistic prediction system and to perform better than the Peak-Box approach. The "Peak-Box" is a novel visual support that can be communicated alongside with ensemble discharge forecasts (Zappa et al., 2013). This visual solution should provide support in the assessment of actions relying on accurate estimation of peak-timings and peak-flows. Results will be presented and discussed together with the participants of the session. Furthermore a blog post will appear later on www.hepex.org. References: Galton F. 1907.Vox populi. Nature 75: 450-451. Zappa M, Fundel F, Jaun S. 2013. A "Peak-Flow Box" Approach for Supporting Interpretation and Evaluation of Operational Ensemble Flood Forecasts. Hydrological processes. 27: 117-131. doi:/10.1002/hyp.9521

  16. Main: BOX2PSGS2 [PLACE

    Lifescience Database Archive (English)

    Full Text Available BOX2PSGS2 S000204 17-May-1998 (last modified) kehi Box 2 in glutamine synthetase (G...S2) gene in pea (P.s.); Repeated in tandem with a partial palindrome located between the repeats; Located at ca. -300 of pea GS2; Box

  17. The Heuristic Interpretation of Box Plots

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lem, Stephanie; Onghena, Patrick; Verschaffel, Lieven; Van Dooren, Wim

    2013-01-01

    Box plots are frequently used, but are often misinterpreted by students. Especially the area of the box in box plots is often misinterpreted as representing number or proportion of observations, while it actually represents their density. In a first study, reaction time evidence was used to test whether heuristic reasoning underlies this…

  18. The strategy of professional forecasting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ottaviani, Marco; Sørensen, Peter Norman

    2006-01-01

    We develop and compare two theories of professional forecasters’ strategic behavior. The first theory, reputational cheap talk, posits that forecasters endeavor to convince the market that they are well informed. The market evaluates their forecasting talent on the basis of the forecasts and the ......We develop and compare two theories of professional forecasters’ strategic behavior. The first theory, reputational cheap talk, posits that forecasters endeavor to convince the market that they are well informed. The market evaluates their forecasting talent on the basis of the forecasts...

  19. Wind power forecast

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pestana, Rui [Rede Electrica Nacional (REN), S.A., Lisboa (Portugal). Dept. Systems and Development System Operator; Trancoso, Ana Rosa; Delgado Domingos, Jose [Univ. Tecnica de Lisboa (Portugal). Seccao de Ambiente e Energia

    2012-07-01

    Accurate wind power forecast are needed to reduce integration costs in the electric grid caused by wind inherent variability. Currently, Portugal has a significant wind power penetration level and consequently the need to have reliable wind power forecasts at different temporal scales, including localized events such as ramps. This paper provides an overview of the methodologies used by REN to forecast wind power at national level, based on statistical and probabilistic combinations of NWP and measured data with the aim of improving accuracy of pure NWP. Results show that significant improvement can be achieved with statistical combination with persistence in the short-term and with probabilistic combination in the medium-term. NWP are also able to detect ramp events with 3 day notice to the operational planning. (orig.)

  20. Olympian weather forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Showstack, Randy

    A unique public-private partnership will provide detailed weather information at the 2002 Winter Olympics in Utah, 8-24 February About 50 meteorologists with the National Weather Service (NWS) and several private groups will work in the background to provide accurate forecasts.This is the first time that U.S. government and private meteorologists will share forecasting responsibilities for the Olympics, according to the Salt Lake Organizing Committee for the Olympic Games. The partnership includes meteorologists with the University of Utah and KSL-TV in Salt Lake City.

  1. Combining forecasts in short term load forecasting: Empirical ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    We present an empirical analysis to show that combination of short term load forecasts leads to better accuracy. We also discuss other aspects of combination, i.e.,distribution of weights, effect of variation in the historical window and distribution of forecast errors. The distribution of forecast errors is analyzed in order to get a ...

  2. Projected Applications of a "Weather in a Box" Computing System at the NASA Short-Term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jedlovec, Gary J.; Molthan, Andrew; Zavodsky, Bradley T.; Case, Jonathan L.; LaFontaine, Frank J.; Srikishen, Jayanthi

    2010-01-01

    The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition Center (SPoRT)'s new "Weather in a Box" resources will provide weather research and forecast modeling capabilities for real-time application. Model output will provide additional forecast guidance and research into the impacts of new NASA satellite data sets and software capabilities. By combining several research tools and satellite products, SPoRT can generate model guidance that is strongly influenced by unique NASA contributions.

  3. Persistent forecasting of disruptive technologies

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Committee on Forecasting Future Disruptive Technologies; National Research Council

    ...) and the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) tasked the Committee for Forecasting Future Disruptive Technologies with providing guidance and insight on how to build a persistent forecasting system to predict, analyze, and reduce the impact...

  4. CDM Convective Forecast Planning guidance

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The CDM Convective Forecast Planning (CCFP) guidance product provides a foreast of en-route aviation convective hazards. The forecasts are updated every 2 hours and...

  5. Forecasts: uncertain, inaccurate and biased?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nicolaisen, Morten Skou; Ambrasaite, Inga; Salling, Kim Bang

    2012-01-01

    of construction costs, which account for the majority of total project costs. Second are the forecasts of travel time savings, which account for the majority of total project benefits. The latter of these is, inter alia, determined by forecasts of travel demand, which we shall use as a proxy for the forecasting...

  6. GEOS-5 seasonal forecast system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borovikov, Anna; Cullather, Richard; Kovach, Robin; Marshak, Jelena; Vernieres, Guillaume; Vikhliaev, Yury; Zhao, Bin; Li, Zhao

    2017-09-01

    Ensembles of numerical forecasts based on perturbed initial conditions have long been used to improve estimates of both weather and climate forecasts. The Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model, Version 5 (GEOS-5 AOGCM) Seasonal-to-Interannual Forecast System has been used routinely by the GMAO since 2008, the current version since 2012. A coupled reanalysis starting in 1980 provides the initial conditions for the 9-month experimental forecasts. Once a month, sea surface temperature from a suite of 11 ensemble forecasts is contributed to the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) consensus project, which compares and distributes seasonal forecasts of ENSO events. Since June 2013, GEOS-5 forecasts of the Arctic sea-ice distribution were provided to the Sea-Ice Outlook project. The seasonal forecast output data includes surface fields, atmospheric and ocean fields, as well as sea ice thickness and area, and soil moisture variables. The current paper aims to document the characteristics of the GEOS-5 seasonal forecast system and to highlight forecast biases and skills of selected variables (sea surface temperature, air temperature at 2 m, precipitation and sea ice extent) to be used as a benchmark for the future GMAO seasonal forecast systems and to facilitate comparison with other global seasonal forecast systems.

  7. Evolving forecasting classifications and applications in health forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soyiri, Ireneous N; Reidpath, Daniel D

    2012-01-01

    Health forecasting forewarns the health community about future health situations and disease episodes so that health systems can better allocate resources and manage demand. The tools used for developing and measuring the accuracy and validity of health forecasts commonly are not defined although they are usually adapted forms of statistical procedures. This review identifies previous typologies used in classifying the forecasting methods commonly used in forecasting health conditions or situations. It then discusses the strengths and weaknesses of these methods and presents the choices available for measuring the accuracy of health-forecasting models, including a note on the discrepancies in the modes of validation. PMID:22615533

  8. Forecasting freight flows

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lyk-Jensen, Stéphanie

    2011-01-01

    model. The analysis uses a structural relationship to explain the structure of the exchange of the goods—a relationship that can be used in the year of forecast. This article also provides a new methodology for converting monetary aggregates into quantity aggregates. The resulting commodity growth rates...

  9. Forecasters' Objectives and Strategies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Marinovic, Iván; Ottaviani, Marco; Sørensen, Peter Norman

    2013-01-01

    This chapter develops a unified modeling framework for analyzing the strategic behavior of forecasters. The theoretical model encompasses reputational objectives, competition for the best accuracy, and bias. Also drawing from the extensive lit- erature on analysts, we review the empirical evidenc...

  10. FORECASTING CROATIAN STOCK MARKET INDEX: CROBEX

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zoran Ivanovic

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Forecasting stock returns is considered one of the hardest tasks for every potential investor. This paper attempts to predict the movement of Croatian stock market index Crobex on Zagreb Stock Exchange. Main aim of this paper was to empirically examine the best univariate Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model for forecasting. This research examined ARIMA (p;d;q model on weekly closed prices of Crobex from 01/01/2011 to 01/01/2013. First it was necessary to meet the stationary condition. While checking the conditions of stationarity, data series were observed by ACF, PACF plots and by Ljung– Box Q statistic and Augmented Dickey–Fuller test statistic. After differencing, statistic showed that the data is stationary and the next step was to find the best ARIMA model. The most important criteria that were used are: R-squared, Adjusted R-squared, Akaike information criterion, Schwarz criterion and Hannan–Quinn information criterion. After checking the exceptionally large number of models it was found the model that suits best, according to the criteria.

  11. Hydrological Forecast Certainty Using Historical Forecast Skill Curves - For A Forecast-Informed Reservoir Operation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sellars, S. L.; Reynolds, D.; Kawzenuk, B.; Ralph, F. M.

    2016-12-01

    A novel forecast verification ``skill curve" method and associated forecast certainty calculation is presented and applied to historical, daily hydrological streamflow operational forecasts used to manage and operate the Coyote Valley Dam (COY), which forms Lake Mendocino in the Russian River basin in Northern California from 2005 to 2015. The presented skill curves represent the historical forecast skill as a function of forecast lead time skill (in forecast hours) and forecast event values (volumetric inflow in acre-feet) for a range of inflow events. We define skill as the lead time when a forecast event value is more likely to be correct than incorrect by calculating the lead time where the Critical Success Index (CSI) value is equals to .5. We explore other CSI values ranging from .1 to .9. Using the skill curve, we define the Actionable Forecast Certainty (AFC) as a measure of real-time forecast certainty as it is compared to the historical skill derived by the skill curve method. The AFC is quantifiable measure of certainty based on the skill of historical 24 and 72 forecast event volume forecast skill, which indicates the degree of certanty on a range from [1,-1] where particular forecast value and lead time, where 1 being highly certain and -1 having least amount of certainty. In addition, we explore the new skill curve and AFC in developing criteria and applicability for Forecast-Informed Reservoir Operations or FIRO, which is a proposed management strategy that uses data from watershed monitoring and modern weather and water forecasting to help water managers selectively retain or release water from reservoirs in a manner that reflects current and forecasted conditions. Both methods are applied to a case study for a Lake Mendocino major inflow event occurring in December, 2012 and results are presented.

  12. Statistical ensemble postprocessing for precipitation forecasting during the West African Monsoon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vogel, Peter; Gneiting, Tilmann; Knippertz, Peter; Fink, Andreas H.; Schlüter, Andreas

    2017-04-01

    Precipitation forecasts for one up to several days are of high socioeconomic importance for agriculturally dominated societies in West Africa. In this contribution, we evaluate the performance of operational European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECWMF) raw ensemble and statistically postprocessed against climatological precipitation forecasts for accumulation periods of 1 to 5 days for the monsoon periods (May to mid-October) from 2007 to 2014. We use Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) and Ensemble Model Output Statistics (EMOS) as state-of-the-art postprocessing methods and verify against station and gridded Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) observations. Based on a subset of past forecast—observation-pairs, statistical postprocessing corrects ensemble forecasts for biases and dispersion errors. For the midlatitudes, statistical postprocessing has demonstrated its added value for a wide range of meteorological quantities and this contribution is the first to apply it to precipitation forecasts over West Africa, where the high degree of convective organization at the mesoscale makes precipitation forecasts particularly challenging. The raw ECMWF ensemble predictions of accumulated precipitation are poor compared to climatological forecasts and exhibit strong dispersion errors and biases. For the Guinea Coast, we find a substantial wet bias of the ECMWF ensemble and more than every second ensemble forecast fails to capture the verifying observation within its forecast range. Postprocessed forecasts clearly outperform ECMWF raw ensemble forecasts by correcting for biases and dispersion errors, but disappointingly reveal only slight, if any, improvements compared to climatological forecasts. These results hold across verification regions and years, for 1 to 5-day accumulated precipitation forecasts, and for station and gridded observations. We investigate different spatial accumulation sizes from 0.25 x 0.25° to 5 x 2° longitude—latitude-boxes

  13. Load forecasting for supermarket refrigeration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bacher, Peder; Madsen, Henrik; Aalborg Nielsen, Henrik

    This report presents a study of models for forecasting the load for supermarket refrigeration. The data used for building the forecasting models consists of load measurements, local climate measurements and weather forecasts. The load measurements are from a supermarket located in a village...... in Denmark. The load for refrigeration is the sum of all cabinets in the supermarket, both low and medium temperature cabinets, and spans a period of one year. As input to the forecasting models the ambient temperature observed near the supermarket together with weather forecasts are used. Every hour...... the hourly load for refrigeration for the following 42 hours is forecasted. The forecast models are adaptive linear time-series models which are fitted with a computationally efficient recursive least squares scheme. The dynamic relations between the inputs and the load is modeled by simple transfer...

  14. Methodical bases of geodemographic forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Катерина Сегіда

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available The article deals with methodological features of the forecast of population size and composition. The essence and features of probabilistic demographic forecasting, methods, a component and dynamic ranks are considered; requirements to initial indicators for each type of the forecast are provided. It is noted that geo-demographic forecast is an important component of regional geo-demographic characteristic. Features of the demographic forecast development by component method (recursors of age are given, basic formulae of calculation, including the equation of demographic balance, a formula recursors taking into account gender and age indicators, survival coefficient are presented. The basic methodical principles of the demographic forecast are given by an extrapolation method (dynamic ranks, calculation features by means of the generalized indicators, such as extrapolation on the basis of indicators of an average pure gain, average growth rate and average rate of a gain are presented. To develop population forecast, the method of retrospective extrapolation (for the short-term forecast and a component method (for the mid-term forecast are mostly used. The example of such development by component method for gender and age structure of the population of Kharkiv region with step-by-step explanation of calculation is provided. The example of Kharkiv region’s population forecast development is provided by the method of dynamic ranks. Having carried out calculations of the main forecast indicators by administrative units, it is possible to determine features of further regional demographic development, to reveal internal territorial distinctions in demographic development. Application of separate forecasting methods allows to develop the forecast for certain indicators, however essential a variety, nonlinearity and not stationarity of the processes constituting demographic development forces to look +for new approaches and

  15. Lessons from the light-cone box

    CERN Document Server

    Leibbrandt, G

    2000-01-01

    Working in the noncovariant light-cone gauge, we discuss the explicit computation of the 1PI four-point function ("box diagram") in Yang- Mills theory. The complete box diagram which consists of 16 box subdiagrams, 8 lynx subdiagrams and 4 fish subdiagrams, yields both local and nonlocal UV divergent terms. The nonlocal terms are consistent with gauge symmetry and correspond to a nonlocal renormalization of the wave function. (14 refs).

  16. Convective Weather Forecast Quality Metrics for Air Traffic Management Decision-Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chatterji, Gano B.; Gyarfas, Brett; Chan, William N.; Meyn, Larry A.

    2006-01-01

    Since numerical weather prediction models are unable to accurately forecast the severity and the location of the storm cells several hours into the future when compared with observation data, there has been a growing interest in probabilistic description of convective weather. The classical approach for generating uncertainty bounds consists of integrating the state equations and covariance propagation equations forward in time. This step is readily recognized as the process update step of the Kalman Filter algorithm. The second well known method, known as the Monte Carlo method, consists of generating output samples by driving the forecast algorithm with input samples selected from distributions. The statistical properties of the distributions of the output samples are then used for defining the uncertainty bounds of the output variables. This method is computationally expensive for a complex model compared to the covariance propagation method. The main advantage of the Monte Carlo method is that a complex non-linear model can be easily handled. Recently, a few different methods for probabilistic forecasting have appeared in the literature. A method for computing probability of convection in a region using forecast data is described in Ref. 5. Probability at a grid location is computed as the fraction of grid points, within a box of specified dimensions around the grid location, with forecast convection precipitation exceeding a specified threshold. The main limitation of this method is that the results are dependent on the chosen dimensions of the box. The examples presented Ref. 5 show that this process is equivalent to low-pass filtering of the forecast data with a finite support spatial filter. References 6 and 7 describe the technique for computing percentage coverage within a 92 x 92 square-kilometer box and assigning the value to the center 4 x 4 square-kilometer box. This technique is same as that described in Ref. 5. Characterizing the forecast, following

  17. Forecasting carbon dioxide emissions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Xiaobing; Du, Ding

    2015-09-01

    This study extends the literature on forecasting carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by applying the reduced-form econometrics approach of Schmalensee et al. (1998) to a more recent sample period, the post-1997 period. Using the post-1997 period is motivated by the observation that the strengthening pace of global climate policy may have been accelerated since 1997. Based on our parameter estimates, we project 25% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2050 according to an economic and population growth scenario that is more consistent with recent global trends. Our forecasts are conservative due to that we do not have sufficient data to fully take into account recent developments in the global economy. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Methods of Technological Forecasting,

    Science.gov (United States)

    1977-05-01

    i dh dt e ’ ve ’ lccp isie ’u i ( s trLttegv , LI ( ietwork ucf pcc ’.st hile SI/uges ,utuc l s teps ts uisLuppc’ dh , Ic c d c termui iuue (he opt...to use its tiny e’irc u mt u ss( L utu c ’e’s will ele ’pe’usc l upoui (lie purpcmse’ ( ‘t im w h ich (hue lonc’cL mst is mu LIdIc ’ Lltid h (lie in...L . Perspecti ve Tru e’. Met/ mod Jor (‘real ively Us/p ig Forecasts. ‘fechnological Forecasting and Social Change . No.4 . 1973. Gerardin , L. Studi

  19. Financial Analysts’ Forecasts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stæhr, Simone

    This thesis is broadly concentrated on decision making under uncertainty. It seeks to investigate how agents in financial markets make decisions at the individual level and how these decisions can sometimes be affected by personal traits and cognitive biases rather than being perfectly rational....... The primary focus is on financial analysts in the task of conducting earnings forecasts while a secondary focus is on investors’ abilities to interpret and make use of these forecasts. Simply put, financial analysts can be seen as information intermediators receiving inputs to their analyses from firm...... in the decision making and the magnitude of these constraints does sometimes vary with personal traits. Therefore, to the extent that financial analysts are subjects to behavioral biases their outputs to the investors are likely to be biased by their interpretation of information. Because investors need accuracy...

  20. Forecasting military expenditure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tobias Böhmelt

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available To what extent do frequently cited determinants of military spending allow us to predict and forecast future levels of expenditure? The authors draw on the data and specifications of a recent model on military expenditure and assess the predictive power of its variables using in-sample predictions, out-of-sample forecasts and Bayesian model averaging. To this end, this paper provides guidelines for prediction exercises in general using these three techniques. More substantially, however, the findings emphasize that previous levels of military spending as well as a country’s institutional and economic characteristics particularly improve our ability to predict future levels of investment in the military. Variables pertaining to the international security environment also matter, but seem less important. In addition, the results highlight that the updated model, which drops weak predictors, is not only more parsimonious, but also slightly more accurate than the original specification.

  1. Ensemble global ocean forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brassington, G. B.

    2016-02-01

    A novel time-lagged ensemble system based on multiple independent cycles has been performed in operations at the Australian Bureau of Meteorology for the past 3 years. Despite the use of only four cycles the ensemble mean provided robustly higher skill and the ensemble variance was a reliable predictor of forecast errors. A spectral analysis comparing the ensemble mean with the members demonstrated the gradual increase in power of random errors with wavenumber up to a saturation length scale imposed by the resolution of the observing system. This system has been upgraded to a near-global 0.1 degree system in a new hybrid six-member ensemble system configuration including a new data assimilation system, cycling pattern and initialisation. The hybrid system consists of two ensemble members per day each with a 3 day cycle. We will outline the performance of both the deterministic and ensemble ocean forecast system.

  2. Forecasting Turbine Icing Events

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Davis, Neil; Hahmann, Andrea N.; Clausen, Niels-Erik

    2012-01-01

    In this study, we present a method for forecasting icing events. The method is validated at two European wind farms in with known icing events. The icing model used was developed using current ice accretion methods, and newly developed ablation algorithms. The model is driven by inputs from the WRF...... mesoscale model, allowing for both climatological estimates of icing and short term icing forecasts. The current model was able to detect periods of icing reasonably well at the warmer site. However at the cold climate site, the model was not able to remove ice quickly enough leading to large ice...... accumulations, which have not been seen in observations. In addition to the model evaluation we were able to investigate the potential occurrence of ice induced power loss at two wind parks in Europe using observed data. We found that the potential loss during an icing event is large even when the turbine...

  3. Forecasting Turbine Icing Events

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Davis, Neil; Hahmann, Andrea N.; Clausen, Niels-Erik

    In this study, we present a method for forecasting icing events. The method is validated at two European wind farms in with known icing events. The icing model used was developed using current ice accretion methods, and newly developed ablation algorithms. The model is driven by inputs from the WRF...... mesoscale model, allowing for both climatological estimates of icing and short term icing forecasts. The current model was able to detect periods of icing reasonably well at the warmer site. However at the cold climate site, the model was not able to remove ice quickly enough leading to large ice...... accumulations, which have not been seen in observations. In addition to the model evaluation we were able to investigate the potential occurrence of ice induced power loss at two wind parks in Europe using observed data. We found that the potential loss during an icing event is large even when the turbine...

  4. Foresight and Forecasts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kilbourn, Kyle; Bay, Marie Brøndum

    In predicting areas of growth, public innovation projects may rely on optimistic visions of technology still in development as a way of ensuring novelty for funding. This paper explores what happens when forecasts of robotic technology meets the practice of sterile supply in a preliminary stage......, the most sustainable innovation stems from the dialogical interaction between practitioner foresight and societal forecasting, requiring continued development of participatory design as it moves into new contexts....... of an ongoing project. We examine the nature of participation in design on three levels: in the sterilization ward, this particular project and society in general. From our case, we suggest that while innovation projects proceeding from a certain technological perspective can succeed at building excitement...

  5. IMPROVED, FAVORABLE FOR ENVIRONMENT POLYURETHANE COLD-BOX-PROCESS (COLD BOX «HUTTENES-ALBERTUS» .

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Sergini

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available The results of the laboratory and industrial investigations, the purpose of which is improvement of the classical Cold-box-process, i.e. the process of the slugs hardening in cold boxes, are presented.

  6. Analysing UK real estate market forecast disagreement

    OpenAIRE

    McAllister, Patrick; Newell, G.; Matysiak, George

    2005-01-01

    Given the significance of forecasting in real estate investment decisions, this paper investigates forecast uncertainty and disagreement in real estate market forecasts. Using the Investment Property Forum (IPF) quarterly survey amongst UK independent real estate forecasters, these real estate forecasts are compared with actual real estate performance to assess a number of real estate forecasting issues in the UK over 1999-2004, including real estate forecast error, bias and consensus. The re...

  7. Statistical methods for forecasting

    CERN Document Server

    Abraham, Bovas

    2009-01-01

    The Wiley-Interscience Paperback Series consists of selected books that have been made more accessible to consumers in an effort to increase global appeal and general circulation. With these new unabridged softcover volumes, Wiley hopes to extend the lives of these works by making them available to future generations of statisticians, mathematicians, and scientists."This book, it must be said, lives up to the words on its advertising cover: ''Bridging the gap between introductory, descriptive approaches and highly advanced theoretical treatises, it provides a practical, intermediate level discussion of a variety of forecasting tools, and explains how they relate to one another, both in theory and practice.'' It does just that!"-Journal of the Royal Statistical Society"A well-written work that deals with statistical methods and models that can be used to produce short-term forecasts, this book has wide-ranging applications. It could be used in the context of a study of regression, forecasting, and time series ...

  8. PyForecastTools

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2017-09-22

    The PyForecastTools package provides Python routines for calculating metrics for model validation, forecast verification and model comparison. For continuous predictands the package provides functions for calculating bias (mean error, mean percentage error, median log accuracy, symmetric signed bias), and for calculating accuracy (mean squared error, mean absolute error, mean absolute scaled error, normalized RMSE, median symmetric accuracy). Convenience routines to calculate the component parts (e.g. forecast error, scaled error) of each metric are also provided. To compare models the package provides: generic skill score; percent better. Robust measures of scale including median absolute deviation, robust standard deviation, robust coefficient of variation and the Sn estimator are all provided by the package. Finally, the package implements Python classes for NxN contingency tables. In the case of a multi-class prediction, accuracy and skill metrics such as proportion correct and the Heidke and Peirce skill scores are provided as object methods. The special case of a 2x2 contingency table inherits from the NxN class and provides many additional metrics for binary classification: probability of detection, probability of false detection, false alarm ration, threat score, equitable threat score, bias. Confidence intervals for many of these quantities can be calculated using either the Wald method or Agresti-Coull intervals.

  9. Evolving forecasting classifications and applications in health forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Soyiri IN

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Ireneous N Soyiri1,2, Daniel D Reidpath11Global Public Health, JCSMHS, MONASH University, Selangor, Malaysia; 2School of Public Health, University of Ghana, Legon, Accra, GhanaAbstract: Health forecasting forewarns the health community about future health situations and disease episodes so that health systems can better allocate resources and manage demand. The tools used for developing and measuring the accuracy and validity of health forecasts commonly are not defined although they are usually adapted forms of statistical procedures. This review identifies previous typologies used in classifying the forecasting methods commonly used in forecasting health conditions or situations. It then discusses the strengths and weaknesses of these methods and presents the choices available for measuring the accuracy of health-forecasting models, including a note on the discrepancies in the modes of validation.Keywords: health forecast, health data, electronic health records, accuracy, cross validation, method, strengths and limitations

  10. Electricity price forecasting accounting for renewable energies: optimal combined forecasts

    OpenAIRE

    García-Martos, Carolina; Caro Huertas, Eduardo; Sánchez Naranjo, María Jesús

    2015-01-01

    Electricity price forecasting is an interesting problem for all the agents involved in electricity market operation. For instance, every profit maximisation strategy is based on the computation of accurate one-day-ahead forecasts, which is why electricity price forecasting has been a growing field of research in recent years. In addition, the increasing concern about environmental issues has led to a high penetration of renewable energies, particularly wind. In some European countries such as...

  11. EU pharmaceutical expenditure forecast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Urbinati, Duccio; Rémuzat, Cécile; Kornfeld, Åsa; Vataire, Anne-Lise; Cetinsoy, Laurent; Aballéa, Samuel; Mzoughi, Olfa; Toumi, Mondher

    2014-01-01

    Background and Objectives With constant incentives for healthcare payers to contain their pharmaceutical budgets, forecasting has become critically important. Some countries have, for instance, developed pharmaceutical horizon scanning units. The objective of this project was to build a model to assess the net effect of the entrance of new patented medicinal products versus medicinal products going off-patent, with a defined forecast horizon, on selected European Union (EU) Member States’ pharmaceutical budgets. This model took into account population ageing, as well as current and future country-specific pricing, reimbursement, and market access policies (the project was performed for the European Commission; see http://ec.europa.eu/health/healthcare/key_documents/index_en.htm). Method In order to have a representative heterogeneity of EU Member States, the following countries were selected for the analysis: France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Poland, Portugal, and the United Kingdom. A forecasting period of 5 years (2012–2016) was chosen to assess the net pharmaceutical budget impact. A model for generics and biosimilars was developed for each country. The model estimated a separate and combined effect of the direct and indirect impacts of the patent cliff. A second model, estimating the sales development and the risk of development failure, was developed for new drugs. New drugs were reviewed individually to assess their clinical potential and translate it into commercial potential. The forecast was carried out according to three perspectives (healthcare public payer, society, and manufacturer), and several types of distribution chains (retail, hospital, and combined retail and hospital). Probabilistic and deterministic sensitivity analyses were carried out. Results According to the model, all countries experienced drug budget reductions except Poland (+€41 million). Savings were expected to be the highest in the United Kingdom (−€9,367 million), France

  12. Projected Applications of a "Climate in a Box" Computing System at the NASA Short-Term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jedlovec, Gary J.; Molthan, Andrew L.; Zavodsky, Bradley; Case, Jonathan L.; LaFontaine, Frank J.

    2010-01-01

    The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center focuses on the transition of unique observations and research capabilities to the operational weather community, with a goal of improving short-term forecasts on a regional scale. Advances in research computing have lead to "Climate in a Box" systems, with hardware configurations capable of producing high resolution, near real-time weather forecasts, but with footprints, power, and cooling requirements that are comparable to desktop systems. The SPoRT Center has developed several capabilities for incorporating unique NASA research capabilities and observations with real-time weather forecasts. Planned utilization includes the development of a fully-cycled data assimilation system used to drive 36-48 hour forecasts produced by the NASA Unified version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model (NU-WRF). The horsepower provided by the "Climate in a Box" system is expected to facilitate the assimilation of vertical profiles of temperature and moisture provided by the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) aboard the NASA Aqua satellite. In addition, the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instruments aboard NASA s Aqua and Terra satellites provide high-resolution sea surface temperatures and vegetation characteristics. The development of MODIS normalized difference vegetation index (NVDI) composites for use within the NASA Land Information System (LIS) will assist in the characterization of vegetation, and subsequently the surface albedo and processes related to soil moisture. Through application of satellite simulators, NASA satellite instruments can be used to examine forecast model errors in cloud cover and other characteristics. Through the aforementioned application of the "Climate in a Box" system and NU-WRF capabilities, an end goal is the establishment of a real-time forecast system that fully integrates modeling and analysis capabilities developed within the NASA SPo

  13. 36 CFR 1192.33 - Fare box.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 36 Parks, Forests, and Public Property 3 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Fare box. 1192.33 Section 1192.33 Parks, Forests, and Public Property ARCHITECTURAL AND TRANSPORTATION BARRIERS COMPLIANCE BOARD... Systems § 1192.33 Fare box. Where provided, the farebox shall be located as far forward as practicable and...

  14. Magnetorotational dynamo action in the shearing box

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walker, Justin; Boldyrev, Stanislav

    2017-09-01

    Magnetic dynamo action caused by the magnetorotational instability is studied in the shearing-box approximation with no imposed net magnetic flux. Consistent with recent studies, the dynamo action is found to be sensitive to the aspect ratio of the box: it is much easier to obtain in tall boxes (stretched in the direction normal to the disc plane) than in long boxes (stretched in the radial direction). Our direct numerical simulations indicate that the dynamo is possible in both cases, given a large enough magnetic Reynolds number. To explain the relatively larger effort required to obtain the dynamo action in a long box, we propose that the turbulent eddies caused by the instability most efficiently fold and mix the magnetic field lines in the radial direction. As a result, in the long box the scale of the generated strong azimuthal (stream-wise directed) magnetic field is always comparable to the scale of the turbulent eddies. In contrast, in the tall box the azimuthal magnetic flux spreads in the vertical direction over a distance exceeding the scale of the turbulent eddies. As a result, different vertical sections of the tall box are permeated by large-scale non-zero azimuthal magnetic fluxes, facilitating the instability. In agreement with this picture, the cases when the dynamo is efficient are characterized by a strong intermittency of the local azimuthal magnetic fluxes.

  15. Unification of box shapes in molecular simulations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bekker, H.

    1997-01-01

    In molecular simulations with periodic boundary conditions the computational box may have five different shapes: triclinic; the hexagonal prism; two types of dodecahedrons; and the truncated octahedron. In this article, we show that every molecular simulation, formulated in one of these boxes, can

  16. An effective box trap for capturing lynx

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jay A. Kolbe; John R. Squires; Thomas W. Parker

    2003-01-01

    We designed a box trap for capturing lynx (Lynx lynx) that is lightweight, safe, effective, and less expensive than many commercial models. It can be constructed in approximately 3-4 hours from readily available materials. We used this trap to capture 40 lynx 89 times (96% of lynx entering traps) and observed no trapping related injuries. We compare our box...

  17. Modern biotechnology Panacea or new Pandora's box?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tramper, J.; Yang Zhu, Yang

    2011-01-01

    According to Greek mythology Pandora was sent down to earth upon the orders of Zeus. She was given a mysterious box which she was not allowed to open. However, Pandora was very curious and when she arrived on earth she couldn?t help taking a peek inside the box. She saw that it was filled with gifts

  18. Cosmetic Foot Surgery: Fashion's Pandora's Box

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Fashion’s Pandora’s Box? A A A | Print | Share Cosmetic Foot Surgery: Fashion’s Pandora’s Box? Foot and ankle ... extreme and imprudent as it may sound, the cosmetic surgery craze is not just for faces anymore— ...

  19. Box Plots in the Australian Curriculum

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watson, Jane M.

    2012-01-01

    This article compares the definition of "box plot" as used in the "Australian Curriculum: Mathematics" with other definitions used in the education community; describes the difficulties students experience when dealing with box plots; and discusses the elaboration that is necessary to enable teachers to develop the knowledge…

  20. 49 CFR 38.33 - Fare box.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Fare box. 38.33 Section 38.33 Transportation Office of the Secretary of Transportation AMERICANS WITH DISABILITIES ACT (ADA) ACCESSIBILITY SPECIFICATIONS FOR TRANSPORTATION VEHICLES Buses, Vans and Systems § 38.33 Fare box. Where provided, the farebox...

  1. A Bayesian joint probability modeling approach for seasonal forecasting of streamflows at multiple sites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Q. J.; Robertson, D. E.; Chiew, F. H. S.

    2009-05-01

    Seasonal forecasting of streamflows can be highly valuable for water resources management. In this paper, a Bayesian joint probability (BJP) modeling approach for seasonal forecasting of streamflows at multiple sites is presented. A Box-Cox transformed multivariate normal distribution is proposed to model the joint distribution of future streamflows and their predictors such as antecedent streamflows and El Niño-Southern Oscillation indices and other climate indicators. Bayesian inference of model parameters and uncertainties is implemented using Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling, leading to joint probabilistic forecasts of streamflows at multiple sites. The model provides a parametric structure for quantifying relationships between variables, including intersite correlations. The Box-Cox transformed multivariate normal distribution has considerable flexibility for modeling a wide range of predictors and predictands. The Bayesian inference formulated allows the use of data that contain nonconcurrent and missing records. The model flexibility and data-handling ability means that the BJP modeling approach is potentially of wide practical application. The paper also presents a number of statistical measures and graphical methods for verification of probabilistic forecasts of continuous variables. Results for streamflows at three river gauges in the Murrumbidgee River catchment in southeast Australia show that the BJP modeling approach has good forecast quality and that the fitted model is consistent with observed data.

  2. Hybrid Stochastic Forecasting Model for Management of Large Open Water Reservoir with Storage Function

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kozel, Tomas; Stary, Milos

    2017-12-01

    The main advantage of stochastic forecasting is fan of possible value whose deterministic method of forecasting could not give us. Future development of random process is described better by stochastic then deterministic forecasting. Discharge in measurement profile could be categorized as random process. Content of article is construction and application of forecasting model for managed large open water reservoir with supply function. Model is based on neural networks (NS) and zone models, which forecasting values of average monthly flow from inputs values of average monthly flow, learned neural network and random numbers. Part of data was sorted to one moving zone. The zone is created around last measurement average monthly flow. Matrix of correlation was assembled only from data belonging to zone. The model was compiled for forecast of 1 to 12 month with using backward month flows (NS inputs) from 2 to 11 months for model construction. Data was got ridded of asymmetry with help of Box-Cox rule (Box, Cox, 1964), value r was found by optimization. In next step were data transform to standard normal distribution. The data were with monthly step and forecast is not recurring. 90 years long real flow series was used for compile of the model. First 75 years were used for calibration of model (matrix input-output relationship), last 15 years were used only for validation. Outputs of model were compared with real flow series. For comparison between real flow series (100% successfully of forecast) and forecasts, was used application to management of artificially made reservoir. Course of water reservoir management using Genetic algorithm (GE) + real flow series was compared with Fuzzy model (Fuzzy) + forecast made by Moving zone model. During evaluation process was founding the best size of zone. Results show that the highest number of input did not give the best results and ideal size of zone is in interval from 25 to 35, when course of management was almost same for

  3. North American box turtles: A natural history

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dodd, C. Kenneth

    2002-01-01

    Once a familiar backyard visitor in many parts of the United States and Mexico, the box turtle is losing the battle against extinction. In North American Box Turtles, C. Kenneth Dodd, Jr., has written the first book-length natural history of the twelve species and subspecies of this endangered animal. This volume includes comprehensive information on the species’ evolution, behavior, courtship and reproduction, habitat use, diet, population structure, systematics, and disease. Special features include color photos of all species, subspecies, and their habitats; a simple identification guide to both living and fossil species; and a summary of information on fossil Terrapene and Native uses of box turtles. End-of-chapter sections highlight future research directions, including the need for long-term monitoring and observation of box turtles within their natural habitat and conservation applications. A glossary and a bibliography of literature on box turtles accompany the text.

  4. Medium-range fire weather forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    J.O. Roads; K. Ueyoshi; S.C. Chen; J. Alpert; F. Fujioka

    1991-01-01

    The forecast skill of theNational Meteorological Center's medium range forecast (MRF) numerical forecasts of fire weather variables is assessed for the period June 1,1988 to May 31,1990. Near-surface virtual temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and a derived fire weather index (FWI) are forecast well by the MRF model. However, forecast relative humidity has...

  5. La compañía del asiento y la guerra de la oreja de Jenkins: sus causas económicas y algunos aspectos contables relacionados

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rafael Donoso Anes

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available Por el tratado de Utrecht de 1713 el Asiento de esclavos pasaría a manos de Inglaterra, cuya soberana concedería su desarrollo práctico a la Compañía del Mar del Sur, la cual, con muchos altibajos, lo conservaría hasta la denominada Guerra de la Oreja de Jenkins o guerra del Asiento que estalló en 1739, enfrentando a la corona española y británica durante un período de casi diez años, hasta la paz de Aquisgrán de 1748 y que desembocaría, en 1750, en un tratado particular con Inglaterra que llevaría a la culminación definitiva del Asiento. En relación con este tema hay un aspecto, apenas reconocido hasta ahora en otros trabajos de investigación históricos y que se refiere al importante papel que desempeñó en el desenvolvimiento del Asiento la contabilidad, o mejor las cuentas que, de forma reiterada, se solicitaban a la Compañía del Mar de Sur por parte de la Corona española, en cuyo negocio participaba con una cuarta parte y que, por el articulado del Asiento, estaba la Compañía obligada a presentar periódicamente. Este conflicto de carácter contable se unió a otros muchos que, finalmente, desembocaron, como tendremos ocasión de analizar, en la denominada “Guerra de la Oreja de Jenkins” en 1739, conflicto que ha sido analizado por algunos historiadores, entre los que destacamos a Béthencourt Massieu (1989 y 1998 por ser de los pocos que reconocen que, a las causas políticas y diplomáticas que promovieron los conflictos entre las dos naciones, hay que añadir “el de las frecuentes peticiones de cuentas por Felipe V y el pago de sus beneficios conforme a los plazos señalados por los tratados” (1998, p. 184.En este trabajo de investigación analizamos algunas de las causas que motivaron el conflicto entre ambas naciones, poniendo un énfasis especial en los aspectos económicos y contables derivados de las relaciones comerciales e intereses económicos que la monarquía española tenía en el Asiento de

  6. On the Influence of Weather Forecast Errors in Short-Term Load Forecasting Models

    OpenAIRE

    Fay, D.; Ringwood, John; Condon, M.

    2004-01-01

    Weather information is an important factor in load forecasting models. This weather information usually takes the form of actual weather readings. However, online operation of load forecasting models requires the use of weather forecasts, with associated weather forecast errors. A technique is proposed to model weather forecast errors to reflect current accuracy. A load forecasting model is then proposed which combines the forecasts of several load forecasting models. This approach allows the...

  7. Hydrologic Forecasting and Hydropower Production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wigmosta, M. S.; Voisin, N.; Lettenmaier, D. P.; Coleman, A.; Mishra, V.; Schaner, N. A.

    2011-12-01

    Hydroelectric power production is one of many competing demands for available water along with other priority uses such as irrigation, thermoelectric cooling, municipal, recreation, and environmental performance. Increasingly, hydroelectric generation is being used to offset the intermittent nature of some renewable energy sources such as wind-generated power. An accurate forecast of the magnitude and timing of water supply assists managers in integrated planning and operations to balance competing water uses against current and future supply while protecting against the possibility of water or energy shortages and excesses with real-time actions. We present a medium-range to seasonal ensemble streamflow forecasting system where uncertainty in forecasts is addressed explicitly. The integrated forecast system makes use of remotely-sensed data and automated spatial and temporal data assimilation. Remotely-sensed snow cover, observed snow water equivalent, and observed streamflow data are used to update the hydrologic model state prior to the forecast. In forecast mode, the hydrology model is forced by calibrated ensemble weather/climate forecasts. This system will be fully integrated into a water optimization toolset to inform reservoir and power operations, and guide environmental performance decision making. This flow forecast system development is carried out in agreement with the National Weather Service so that the system can later be incorporated into the NOAA eXperimental Ensemble Forecast Service (XEFS).

  8. Load forecasting of supermarket refrigeration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Lisa Buth; Bacher, Peder; Madsen, Henrik

    2016-01-01

    This paper presents a novel study of models for forecasting the electrical load for supermarket refrigeration. The data used for building the models consists of load measurements, local climate measurements and weather forecasts. The load measurements are from a supermarket located in a village...... in Denmark. Every hour the hourly electrical load for refrigeration is forecasted for the following 42 h. The forecast models are adaptive linear time series models. The model has two regimes; one for opening hours and one for closing hours, this is modeled by a regime switching model and two different...

  9. IEA Wind Task 36 Forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giebel, Gregor; Cline, Joel; Frank, Helmut; Shaw, Will; Pinson, Pierre; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Kariniotakis, Georges; Sempreviva, Anna Maria; Draxl, Caroline

    2017-04-01

    Wind power forecasts have been used operatively for over 20 years. Despite this fact, there are still several possibilities to improve the forecasts, both from the weather prediction side and from the usage of the forecasts. The new International Energy Agency (IEA) Task on Wind Power Forecasting tries to organise international collaboration, among national weather centres with an interest and/or large projects on wind forecast improvements (NOAA, DWD, UK MetOffice, …) and operational forecaster and forecast users. The Task is divided in three work packages: Firstly, a collaboration on the improvement of the scientific basis for the wind predictions themselves. This includes numerical weather prediction model physics, but also widely distributed information on accessible datasets for verification. Secondly, we will be aiming at an international pre-standard (an IEA Recommended Practice) on benchmarking and comparing wind power forecasts, including probabilistic forecasts aiming at industry and forecasters alike. This WP will also organise benchmarks, in cooperation with the IEA Task WakeBench. Thirdly, we will be engaging end users aiming at dissemination of the best practice in the usage of wind power predictions, especially probabilistic ones. The Operating Agent is Gregor Giebel of DTU, Co-Operating Agent is Joel Cline of the US Department of Energy. Collaboration in the task is solicited from everyone interested in the forecasting business. We will collaborate with IEA Task 31 Wakebench, which developed the Windbench benchmarking platform, which this task will use for forecasting benchmarks. The task runs for three years, 2016-2018. Main deliverables are an up-to-date list of current projects and main project results, including datasets which can be used by researchers around the world to improve their own models, an IEA Recommended Practice on performance evaluation of probabilistic forecasts, a position paper regarding the use of probabilistic forecasts

  10. FVS out of the box - assembly required

    Science.gov (United States)

    Don Vandendriesche

    2010-01-01

    The Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS) is a prominent growth and yield model used for forecasting stand dynamics. However, users need to be aware of model behavior regarding stocking density, tree senescence, and understory recruitment; otherwise over long projections, FVS tends to concentrate substantial growth on few survivor trees. If the intent is to forecast...

  11. Solar Indices Forecasting Tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henney, Carl John; Shurkin, Kathleen; Arge, Charles; Hill, Frank

    2016-05-01

    Progress to forecast key space weather parameters using SIFT (Solar Indices Forecasting Tool) with the ADAPT (Air Force Data Assimilative Photospheric flux Transport) model is highlighted in this presentation. Using a magnetic flux transport model, ADAPT, we estimate the solar near-side field distribution that is used as input into empirical models for predicting F10.7(solar 10.7 cm, 2.8 GHz, radio flux), the Mg II core-to-wing ratio, and selected bands of solar far ultraviolet (FUV) and extreme ultraviolet (EUV) irradiance. Input to the ADAPT model includes the inferred photospheric magnetic field from the NISP ground-based instruments, GONG & VSM. Besides a status update regarding ADAPT and SIFT models, we will summarize the findings that: 1) the sum of the absolute value of strong magnetic fields, associated with sunspots, is shown to correlate well with the observed daily F10.7 variability (Henney et al. 2012); and 2) the sum of the absolute value of weak magnetic fields, associated with plage regions, is shown to correlate well with EUV and FUV irradiance variability (Henney et al. 2015). This work utilizes data produced collaboratively between Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL) and the National Solar Observatory (NSO). The ADAPT model development is supported by AFRL. The input data utilized by ADAPT is obtained by NISP (NSO Integrated Synoptic Program). NSO is operated by the Association of Universities for Research in Astronomy (AURA), Inc., under a cooperative agreement with the National Science Foundation (NSF). The 10.7 cm solar radio flux data service, utilized by the ADAPT/SIFT F10.7 forecasting model, is operated by the National Research Council of Canada and National Resources Canada, with the support of the Canadian Space Agency.

  12. Utility usage forecasting

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hosking, Jonathan R. M.; Natarajan, Ramesh

    2017-08-22

    The computer creates a utility demand forecast model for weather parameters by receiving a plurality of utility parameter values, wherein each received utility parameter value corresponds to a weather parameter value. Determining that a range of weather parameter values lacks a sufficient amount of corresponding received utility parameter values. Determining one or more utility parameter values that corresponds to the range of weather parameter values. Creating a model which correlates the received and the determined utility parameter values with the corresponding weather parameters values.

  13. Reference class forecasting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Flyvbjerg, Bent

    Underbudgettering og budgetoverskridelser forekommer i et flertal af større bygge- og anlægsprojekter. Problemet skyldes optimisme og/eller strategisk misinformation i budgetteringsprocessen. Reference class forecasting (RCF) er en prognosemetode, som er udviklet for at reducere eller eliminere...... projekterne er almindelige nationalt eller internationalt, er det muligt at etablere en reference-klasse af tilsvarende projekter og dermed alligevel opnå et pålideligt lokalt budget. Denne projekttype er relativt almindelig. RCF kan ikke anvendes på projekter som er reelt unikke, d.v.s. projekter for hvilke...

  14. Housing Price Forecastability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bork, Lasse; Møller, Stig Vinther

    2016-01-01

    We examine U.S. housing price forecastability using principal component analysis (PCA), partial least squares (PLS), and sparse PLS (SPLS). We incorporate information from a large panel of 128 economic time series and show that macroeconomic fundamentals have strong predictive power for future...... movements in housing prices. We find that (S)PLS models systematically dominate PCA models. (S)PLS models also generate significant out-of-sample predictive power over and above the predictive power contained by the price-rent ratio, autoregressive benchmarks, and regression models based on small datasets....

  15. Interactive Forecasting with the National Weather Service River Forecast System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, George F.; Page, Donna

    1993-01-01

    The National Weather Service River Forecast System (NWSRFS) consists of several major hydrometeorologic subcomponents to model the physics of the flow of water through the hydrologic cycle. The entire NWSRFS currently runs in both mainframe and minicomputer environments, using command oriented text input to control the system computations. As computationally powerful and graphically sophisticated scientific workstations became available, the National Weather Service (NWS) recognized that a graphically based, interactive environment would enhance the accuracy and timeliness of NWS river and flood forecasts. Consequently, the operational forecasting portion of the NWSRFS has been ported to run under a UNIX operating system, with X windows as the display environment on a system of networked scientific workstations. In addition, the NWSRFS Interactive Forecast Program was developed to provide a graphical user interface to allow the forecaster to control NWSRFS program flow and to make adjustments to forecasts as necessary. The potential market for water resources forecasting is immense and largely untapped. Any private company able to market the river forecasting technologies currently developed by the NWS Office of Hydrology could provide benefits to many information users and profit from providing these services.

  16. Improving Local Weather Forecasts for Agricultural Applications

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Doeswijk, T.G.; Keesman, K.J.

    2005-01-01

    For controlling agricultural systems, weather forecasts can be of substantial importance. Studies have shown that forecast errors can be reduced in terms of bias and standard deviation using forecasts and meteorological measurements from one specific meteorological station. For agricultural systems

  17. k36u Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  18. Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) [1 Deg.

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) is a weather forecast model made up of 21 separate forecasts, or ensemble members. The National Centers for Environmental...

  19. Hydro-Balanced Stuffing Box field test

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Giangiacomo, L.A.

    1999-05-28

    The Hydro-Balanced Stuffing Box is a seal assembly for polished rod pumping installations commonly used in oil and gas pumping well installations to contain produced well fluids. The improved stuffing box was developed and patented by Harold H. Palmour of The Palmour Group of Livingston, TX. The stuffing box is designed to reduce the incidence of seal leakage and to utilize an environmentally safe fluid, so that if there is any leakage, environmental damage is reduced or eliminated. The unit was tested on two wells at the Rocky Mountain Oilfield Testing Center. During the test period, the performance of the stuffing box was measured by monitoring the pressure on the tubing and the inner chamber with a Barton Two-pen recorder. The amount of safe fluid consumed, fluid leakage at the top of the stuffing box, pressure supplied from the nitrogen bottle, ambient temperature, and polish rod temperature was recorded. The stuffing box is capable of providing a better seal between well fluids an d the environment than conventional stuffing boxes. It allows the polished rod to operate cooler and with lubrication, extending the life of the packing elements, and reducing the amount of attention required to prevent leakage.

  20. Times Series Analysis Of Malaria Cases In Ejisu-Juaben Municipality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Takyi Appiah

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract The number of malaria cases in the Ejisu-Juaben Municipality were modelled statistically to find the best model for forecasting the disease for a two year period. The Box-Jenkins approach was applied to Secondary data from the municipality to determine the best model fit. From the model obtained the forecast was found to have an oscillatory trend for some period and then remain constant for the period of two years from 2014 and 2016.

  1. Now, Here's the Weather Forecast...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richardson, Mathew

    2013-01-01

    The Met Office has a long history of weather forecasting, creating tailored weather forecasts for customers across the world. Based in Exeter, the Met Office is also home to the Met Office Hadley Centre, a world-leading centre for the study of climate change and its potential impacts. Climate information from the Met Office Hadley Centre is used…

  2. (MRF) analysis-forecast system

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    R. Narasimhan (Krishtel eMaging) 1461 1996 Oct 15 13:05:22

    Systematic and random error and their growth rate and different components of growth rate bud- get in energy/variance form are investigated at wavenumber domain for medium range tropical. (30◦S–30◦N) weather forecast using daily horizontal wind field of 850 hPa up to 5-day forecast for the month of June, 2000 of NCEP ...

  3. Forecasting Using Random Subspace Methods

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    T. Boot (Tom); D. Nibbering (Didier)

    2016-01-01

    textabstractRandom subspace methods are a novel approach to obtain accurate forecasts in high-dimensional regression settings. We provide a theoretical justification of the use of random subspace methods and show their usefulness when forecasting monthly macroeconomic variables. We focus on two

  4. Regional-seasonal weather forecasting

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Abarbanel, H.; Foley, H.; MacDonald, G.; Rothaus, O.; Rudermann, M.; Vesecky, J.

    1980-08-01

    In the interest of allocating heating fuels optimally, the state-of-the-art for seasonal weather forecasting is reviewed. A model using an enormous data base of past weather data is contemplated to improve seasonal forecasts, but present skills do not make that practicable. 90 references. (PSB)

  5. Advances in time series forecasting

    CERN Document Server

    Cagdas, Hakan Aladag

    2012-01-01

    Readers will learn how these methods work and how these approaches can be used to forecast real life time series. The hybrid forecasting model is also explained. Data presented in this e-book is problem based and is taken from real life situations. It is a valuable resource for students, statisticians and working professionals interested in advanced time series analysis.

  6. Forecasting for dynamic line rating

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Michiorri, Andrea; Nguyen, Huu-Minh; Alessandrini, Stefano

    2015-01-01

    This paper presents an overview of the state of the art on the research on Dynamic Line Rating forecasting. It is directed at researchers and decision-makers in the renewable energy and smart grids domain, and in particular at members of both the power system and meteorological community. Its aim...... sensors on the line that measure conductor temperature, tension, sag or environmental parameters such as wind speed and air temperature. Because of the conservative assumptions used to calculate static seasonal ampacity limits and the variability of weather parameters, DLRs are considerably higher than....... In order to facilitate the integration of DLR into power system operations, research has been launched into DLR forecasting, following a similar avenue to IRS production forecasting, i.e. based on a mix of statistical methods and meteorological forecasts. The development of reliable DLR forecasts...

  7. [Present views on boxing--Henner's legacy].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tichý, J

    1997-05-29

    Fifty years ago academician Henner formulated clearly the negative view of neurologists on boxing as practised in his time. It was his merit that a protective helmet was introduced, many of his demands concerning the regime after a KO and the importance of medical examinations were no yet adequately appreciated. At the opportunity of the 100th anniversary of Henner's birth and the fiftieth anniversary of the Clinic he founded in the premises of saint Catherine the author discusses contemporary views on boxing, the risk of repeated injuries for the development of encephalopathia pugilistica and their relationship to Alzheimer's disease. Contemporary boxing is a spectacle which is a continuation of historical fights of gladiators. If the main objective is to hurt the adversary, this activity does not deserve the name of "sport" Sport should promote and maintain physical and mental health which is not the case in professional boxing.

  8. Grey Box Modelling of Hydrological Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thordarson, Fannar Ørn

    The main topic of the thesis is grey box modelling of hydrologic systems, as well as formulation and assessment of their embedded uncertainties. Grey box model is a combination of a white box model, a physically-based model that is traditionally formulated using deterministic ordinary differential...... represent a stochastic state space model. In the grey box model the total noise is divided into a measurement noise and a process noise. The process noise is due to model approximations, undiscovered input and uncertainties in the input series. Estimates of the process noise can be used to highlight...... in the model, or formulation of process noise can be considered so that it meets the physical limits of the hydrological system and give an adequate description of the embedded uncertainty in model structure. The thesis consists of two parts: a summary report and a part which contains six scientific papers...

  9. Black-Box Search by Unbiased Variation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lehre, Per Kristian; Witt, Carsten

    2012-01-01

    The complexity theory for black-box algorithms, introduced by Droste, Jansen, and Wegener (Theory Comput. Syst. 39:525–544, 2006), describes common limits on the efficiency of a broad class of randomised search heuristics. There is an obvious trade-off between the generality of the black-box model...... and the strength of the bounds that can be proven in such a model. In particular, the original black-box model provides for well-known benchmark problems relatively small lower bounds, which seem unrealistic in certain cases and are typically not met by popular search heuristics.In this paper, we introduce a more...... restricted black-box model for optimisation of pseudo-Boolean functions which we claim captures the working principles of many randomised search heuristics including simulated annealing, evolutionary algorithms, randomised local search, and others. The key concept worked out is an unbiased variation operator...

  10. EPA EcoBox Tools by Stressors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eco-Box is a toolbox for exposure assessors. Its purpose is to provide a compendium of exposure assessment and risk characterization tools that will present comprehensive step-by-step guidance and links to relevant exposure assessment data bases

  11. Packing a cake into a box

    KAUST Repository

    Skopenkov, Mikhail

    2011-05-01

    Given a triangular cake and a box in the shape of its mirror image, how can the cake be cut into a minimal number of pieces so that it can be put into the box? The cake has icing, so we are not allowed to put it into the box upside down. V. G. Boltyansky asked this question in 1977 and showed that three pieces always suffice. In this paper we provide examples of cakes that cannot be cut into two pieces to be put into the box. This shows that three is the answer to Boltyansky\\'s question. We also give examples of cakes which can be cut into two pieces. © THE MATHEMATICAL ASSOCIATION OF AMERICA.

  12. ENERGY STAR Certified Set Top Boxes

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — Certified models meet all ENERGY STAR requirements as listed in the Version 5.1 ENERGY STAR Program Requirements for Set-top Boxes that are effective as of January...

  13. A Lithium Vapor Box Divertor Similarity Experiment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cohen, Robert A.; Emdee, Eric D.; Goldston, Robert J.; Jaworski, Michael A.; Schwartz, Jacob A.

    2017-10-01

    A lithium vapor box divertor offers an alternate means of managing the extreme power density of divertor plasmas by leveraging gaseous lithium to volumetrically extract power. The vapor box divertor is a baffled slot with liquid lithium coated walls held at temperatures which increase toward the divertor floor. The resulting vapor pressure differential drives gaseous lithium from hotter chambers into cooler ones, where the lithium condenses and returns. A similarity experiment was devised to investigate the advantages offered by a vapor box divertor design. We discuss the design, construction, and early findings of the vapor box divertor experiment including vapor can construction, power transfer calculations, joint integrity tests, and thermocouple data logging. Heat redistribution of an incident plasma-based heat flux from a typical linear plasma device is also presented. This work supported by DOE Contract No. DE-AC02-09CH11466 and The Princeton Environmental Institute.

  14. WIMAX TRAFFIC MODEL BASED ON TIME SERIES FOR FORECAST FUTURE VALUES OF TRAFFIC

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cesar Augusto Hernández Suarez

    2009-03-01

    Full Text Available El objetivo de esta investigación es demostrar que las series de tiempo son una excelente herramienta para el modelamiento de tráfico de datos en redes Wimax. Para lograr este objetivo se utilizó la metodología de Box-Jenkins, la cual se describe en este artículo. El modelamiento de tráfico Wimax a través de modelos correlacionados como las series de tiempo permiten ajustar gran parte de la dinámica del comportamiento de los datos en una ecuación y con base en esto estimar valores futuros de tráfico. Lo anterior es una ventaja para la planeación de cobertura, reservación de recursos y la realización de un control más oportuno y eficiente en forma integrada a diferentes niveles de la jerarquía funcional de la red de datos Wimax. Como resultado de la investigación se obtuvo un modelo de tráfico ARIMA de orden 18, el cual realizó pronósticos de tráfico con valores del error cuadrático medio relativamente pequeños, para un periodo de 10 días.

  15. Forecasting global atmospheric CO2

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agustí-Panareda, A.; Massart, S.; Chevallier, F.; Boussetta, S.; Balsamo, G.; Beljaars, A.; Ciais, P.; Deutscher, N. M.; Engelen, R.; Jones, L.; Kivi, R.; Paris, J.-D.; Peuch, V.-H.; Sherlock, V.; Vermeulen, A. T.; Wennberg, P. O.; Wunch, D.

    2014-11-01

    A new global atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) real-time forecast is now available as part of the pre-operational Monitoring of Atmospheric Composition and Climate - Interim Implementation (MACC-II) service using the infrastructure of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Integrated Forecasting System (IFS). One of the strengths of the CO2 forecasting system is that the land surface, including vegetation CO2 fluxes, is modelled online within the IFS. Other CO2 fluxes are prescribed from inventories and from off-line statistical and physical models. The CO2 forecast also benefits from the transport modelling from a state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction (NWP) system initialized daily with a wealth of meteorological observations. This paper describes the capability of the forecast in modelling the variability of CO2 on different temporal and spatial scales compared to observations. The modulation of the amplitude of the CO2 diurnal cycle by near-surface winds and boundary layer height is generally well represented in the forecast. The CO2 forecast also has high skill in simulating day-to-day synoptic variability. In the atmospheric boundary layer, this skill is significantly enhanced by modelling the day-to-day variability of the CO2 fluxes from vegetation compared to using equivalent monthly mean fluxes with a diurnal cycle. However, biases in the modelled CO2 fluxes also lead to accumulating errors in the CO2 forecast. These biases vary with season with an underestimation of the amplitude of the seasonal cycle both for the CO2 fluxes compared to total optimized fluxes and the atmospheric CO2 compared to observations. The largest biases in the atmospheric CO2 forecast are found in spring, corresponding to the onset of the growing season in the Northern Hemisphere. In the future, the forecast will be re-initialized regularly with atmospheric CO2 analyses based on the assimilation of CO2 products retrieved from satellite measurements and

  16. Random Young diagrams in a Rectangular Box

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Beltoft, Dan; Boutillier, Cédric; Enriquez, Nathanaël

    We exhibit the limit shape of random Young diagrams having a distribution proportional to the exponential of their area, and confined in a rectangular box. The Ornstein-Uhlenbeck bridge arises from the fluctuations around the limit shape.......We exhibit the limit shape of random Young diagrams having a distribution proportional to the exponential of their area, and confined in a rectangular box. The Ornstein-Uhlenbeck bridge arises from the fluctuations around the limit shape....

  17. Tracking the Motion of Box Jellyfish

    OpenAIRE

    Kjellberg, Tobias; Palmér, Tobias; Oskarsson, Magnus; Åström, Karl

    2014-01-01

    In this paper we investigate a system for tracking the motion of box jellyfish tripedalia cystophora in a special test setup. The goal is to measure the motor response of the animal given certain visual stimuli. The approach is based on tracking the special sensory structures – the rhopalia – of the box jellyfish from high-speed video sequences. We have focused on a realtime system with simple building blocks in our system. However, using a combination of simple intensity...

  18. Box Lesion with Single Radiofrequency Clamp.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shaikhrezai, Kasra; Spadaccio, Cristiano; Hunter, Steven

    2017-04-12

    We introduce a maneuver to perform the box lesion as a part of Cox maze IV procedure with single radiofrequency clamp. The maneuver entails engaging the right pulmonary veins with the clamp, then advancing the clamp jaws underneath the superior vena cava through the transverse sinus to include the roof and the left pulmonary veins in the clamp. We regularly use this technique for box lesion with desirable transmurality. Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

  19. Autoantibodies to box A of high mobility group box 1 in systemic lupus erythematosus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaper, F; de Leeuw, K; Horst, G; Maas, F; Bootsma, H; Heeringa, P; Limburg, P C; Westra, J

    2017-06-01

    Autoantibodies to nuclear structures are a hallmark of systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE), including autoantibodies to nuclear protein high mobility group box 1 (HMGB1). HMGB1 consists of three separate domains: box A, box B and an acidic tail. Recombinant box A acts as a competitive antagonist for HMGB1 and might be an interesting treatment option in SLE. However, antibodies to box A might interfere. Therefore, levels of anti-box A were examined in SLE patients in association with disease activity and clinical parameters. Serum anti-box A was measured in 86 SLE patients and 44 age- and sex-matched healthy controls (HC). Serum samples of 28 patients with primary Sjögren's syndrome and 32 patients with rheumatoid arthritis were included as disease controls. Anti-HMGB1 and anti-box B levels were also measured by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay during quiescent disease [SLE Disease Activity Index (SLEDAI) ≤ 4, n = 47] and active disease (SLEDAI ≥ 5, n = 39). Anti-box A levels in active SLE patients were higher compared to quiescent patients, and were increased significantly compared to HC and disease controls. Anti-box A levels correlated positively with SLEDAI and anti-dsDNA levels and negatively with complement C3 levels. Increased levels of anti-box A antibodies were present in the majority of patients with nephritic (73%) and non-nephritic exacerbations (71%). Antibodies to the box A domain of HMGB1 might be an interesting new biomarker, as these had a high specificity for SLE and were associated with disease activity. Longitudinal studies should be performed to evaluate whether these antibodies perform better in predicting an exacerbation, especially non-nephritic exacerbations. © 2017 British Society for Immunology.

  20. HYDROGEN AND VOC RETENTION IN WASTE BOXES

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    PACE ME; MARUSICH RM

    2008-11-21

    The Hanford Waste Management Project Master Documented Safety Analysis (MDSA) (HNF-14741, 2003) identifies derived safety controls to prevent or mitigate the risks of a single-container deflagration during operations requiring moving, venting or opening transuranic (TRU)-waste containers. The issue is whether these safety controls are necessary for operations involving TRU-waste boxes that are being retrieved from burial at the Hanford Site. This paper investigates the potential for a deflagration hazard within these boxes and whether safety controls identified for drum deflagration hazards should be applied to operations involving these boxes. The study evaluates the accumulation of hydrogen and VOCs within the waste box and the transport of these gases and vapors out of the waste box. To perform the analysis, there were numerous and major assumptions made regarding the generation rate and the transport pathway dimensions and their number. Since there is little actual data with regards to these assumptions, analyses of three potential configurations were performed to obtain some indication of the bounds of the issue (the concentration of hydrogen or flammable VOCs within a waste box). A brief description of each of the three cases along with the results of the analysis is summarized.

  1. Box-Cox transformation for QTL mapping.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Runqing; Yi, Nengjun; Xu, Shizhong

    2006-01-01

    The maximum likelihood method of QTL mapping assumes that the phenotypic values of a quantitative trait follow a normal distribution. If the assumption is violated, some forms of transformation should be taken to make the assumption approximately true. The Box-Cox transformation is a general transformation method which can be applied to many different types of data. The flexibility of the Box-Cox transformation is due to a variable, called transformation factor, appearing in the Box-Cox formula. We developed a maximum likelihood method that treats the transformation factor as an unknown parameter, which is estimated from the data simultaneously along with the QTL parameters. The method makes an objective choice of data transformation and thus can be applied to QTL analysis for many different types of data. Simulation studies show that (1) Box-Cox transformation can substantially increase the power of QTL detection; (2) Box-Cox transformation can replace some specialized transformation methods that are commonly used in QTL mapping; and (3) applying the Box-Cox transformation to data already normally distributed does not harm the result.

  2. Intelligent systems for demand forecasting

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Majithia, S.; Kiernan, L.; Hannan, J.

    1997-12-31

    The electricity industry is a huge and growing business, centring around the supply and demand of electricity. There are many benefits in knowing the future load on the system by way of forecasting future demand for electricity. Demand forecasts are of use in a wide range of issues relating to system control, maintenance and planning. Short term demand forecasting (1-7 days ahead) allows unit scheduling to be planned, preparing the industry to meet the demand for electricity. There are large financial benefits in improving forecasts even by a small percentage, so it is always worth investigating new techniques that may help the forecaster. ISs offer a range of new approaches that can help improve demand forecasts. There are two major benefits of using ISs rather than the more traditional modelling techniques. Firstly, intelligent systems offer powerful modelling techniques with very different strengths from those currently available. ESs can be used to encapsulate knowledge and experience, to track not just the general trends in demand but also many of the irregularities. They can easily be updated to include any new relationships. Fuzzy sets permit the linguistic rules that are often present in human descriptions to be incorporated into the model. ANNs offer the ability to model the non-linearities that are known to be part of the demand pattern. The second benefit is the ability of intelligent systems to automate the process of constructing a forecasting model. (UK)

  3. Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2) Operational Forecasts

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2) produced by the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) is a fully coupled model representing the...

  4. Black Sea coastal forecasting system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. I. Kubryakov

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available The Black Sea coastal nowcasting and forecasting system was built within the framework of EU FP6 ECOOP (European COastalshelf sea OPerational observing and forecasting system project for five regions: the south-western basin along the coasts of Bulgaria and Turkey, the north-western shelf along the Romanian and Ukrainian coasts, coastal zone around of the Crimea peninsula, the north-eastern Russian coastal zone and the coastal zone of Georgia. The system operates in the real-time mode during the ECOOP project and afterwards. The forecasts include temperature, salinity and current velocity fields. Ecosystem model operates in the off-line mode near the Crimea coast.

  5. Magnetogram Forecast: An All-Clear Space Weather Forecasting System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barghouty, Nasser; Falconer, David

    2015-01-01

    Solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are the drivers of severe space weather. Forecasting the probability of their occurrence is critical in improving space weather forecasts. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) currently uses the McIntosh active region category system, in which each active region on the disk is assigned to one of 60 categories, and uses the historical flare rates of that category to make an initial forecast that can then be adjusted by the NOAA forecaster. Flares and CMEs are caused by the sudden release of energy from the coronal magnetic field by magnetic reconnection. It is believed that the rate of flare and CME occurrence in an active region is correlated with the free energy of an active region. While the free energy cannot be measured directly with present observations, proxies of the free energy can instead be used to characterize the relative free energy of an active region. The Magnetogram Forecast (MAG4) (output is available at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center) was conceived and designed to be a databased, all-clear forecasting system to support the operational goals of NASA's Space Radiation Analysis Group. The MAG4 system automatically downloads nearreal- time line-of-sight Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) magnetograms on the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) satellite, identifies active regions on the solar disk, measures a free-energy proxy, and then applies forecasting curves to convert the free-energy proxy into predicted event rates for X-class flares, M- and X-class flares, CMEs, fast CMEs, and solar energetic particle events (SPEs). The forecast curves themselves are derived from a sample of 40,000 magnetograms from 1,300 active region samples, observed by the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory Michelson Doppler Imager. Figure 1 is an example of MAG4 visual output

  6. Complementarity in the Einstein-Bohr photon box

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dieks, D.G.B.J.; Lam, S

    2008-01-01

    The Bohr-Einstein photon box thought experiment is a forerunner of the EPR experiment: a packet of radiation escapes from a box, and the box-plus-radiation state remains entangled. Hence, a measurement on the box makes a difference for the state of the far-away radiation long after its escape. This

  7. 25 years of time series forecasting

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Gooijer, J.G.; Hyndman, R.J.

    2006-01-01

    We review the past 25 years of research into time series forecasting. In this silver jubilee issue, we naturally highlight results published in journals managed by the International Institute of Forecasters (Journal of Forecasting 1982-1985 and International Journal of Forecasting 1985-2005). During

  8. Forecasting Covariance Matrices: A Mixed Frequency Approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Halbleib, Roxana; Voev, Valeri

    This paper proposes a new method for forecasting covariance matrices of financial returns. The model mixes volatility forecasts from a dynamic model of daily realized volatilities estimated with high-frequency data with correlation forecasts based on daily data. This new approach allows for flexi......This paper proposes a new method for forecasting covariance matrices of financial returns. The model mixes volatility forecasts from a dynamic model of daily realized volatilities estimated with high-frequency data with correlation forecasts based on daily data. This new approach allows...... matrix dynamics. Our empirical results show that the new mixing approach provides superior forecasts compared to multivariate volatility specifications using single sources of information....

  9. Earthquake number forecasts testing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kagan, Yan Y.

    2017-10-01

    We study the distributions of earthquake numbers in two global earthquake catalogues: Global Centroid-Moment Tensor and Preliminary Determinations of Epicenters. The properties of these distributions are especially required to develop the number test for our forecasts of future seismic activity rate, tested by the Collaboratory for Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP). A common assumption, as used in the CSEP tests, is that the numbers are described by the Poisson distribution. It is clear, however, that the Poisson assumption for the earthquake number distribution is incorrect, especially for the catalogues with a lower magnitude threshold. In contrast to the one-parameter Poisson distribution so widely used to describe earthquake occurrences, the negative-binomial distribution (NBD) has two parameters. The second parameter can be used to characterize the clustering or overdispersion of a process. We also introduce and study a more complex three-parameter beta negative-binomial distribution. We investigate the dependence of parameters for both Poisson and NBD distributions on the catalogue magnitude threshold and on temporal subdivision of catalogue duration. First, we study whether the Poisson law can be statistically rejected for various catalogue subdivisions. We find that for most cases of interest, the Poisson distribution can be shown to be rejected statistically at a high significance level in favour of the NBD. Thereafter, we investigate whether these distributions fit the observed distributions of seismicity. For this purpose, we study upper statistical moments of earthquake numbers (skewness and kurtosis) and compare them to the theoretical values for both distributions. Empirical values for the skewness and the kurtosis increase for the smaller magnitude threshold and increase with even greater intensity for small temporal subdivision of catalogues. The Poisson distribution for large rate values approaches the Gaussian law, therefore its skewness

  10. Valuing information from mesoscale forecasts

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kok, K.; Wichers Schreur, B.G.J.; Vogelenzang, D.

    2008-01-01

    The development of meso-gamma scale numerical weather prediction (NWP) models requires a substantial investment in research, development and computational resources. Traditional objective verification of deterministic model output fails to demonstrate the added value of high-resolution forecasts

  11. Ensemble hydromoeteorological forecasting in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lucatero Villasenor, Diana

    of the main sources of uncertainty in hydrological forecasts. This is the reason why substantiated efforts to include information from Numerical Weather Predictors (NWP) or General Circulation Models (GCM) have been made over the last couple of decades. The present thesis expects to advance the field......teorological extremes such as flood and droughts cause economical and live losses that could be, if not prevented, at least dampened if sufficient time is given to respond to potential threats. This is the ultimate purpose of forecasting which then translates into making reliable predictions...... of ensemble hydrometeorological forecasting by evaluating the added value of NWP and GCM ensemble prediction systems (EPS) for hydrological purposes. The use of NWP EPS that differ in both spatial and temporal resolution to feed a hydrological model for discharge forecasts at specific points, revealed two...

  12. Load forecasting of supermarket refrigeration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Lisa Buth; Bacher, Peder; Madsen, Henrik

    2016-01-01

    This paper presents a novel study of models for forecasting the electrical load for supermarket refrigeration. The data used for building the models consists of load measurements, local climate measurements and weather forecasts. The load measurements are from a supermarket located in a village...... in Denmark. Every hour the hourly electrical load for refrigeration is forecasted for the following 42 h. The forecast models are adaptive linear time series models. The model has two regimes; one for opening hours and one for closing hours, this is modeled by a regime switching model and two different...... methods for predicting the regimes are tested. The dynamic relation between the weather and the load is modeled by simple transfer functions and the non-linearities are described using spline functions. The results are thoroughly evaluated and it is shown that the spline functions are suitable...

  13. Recurrent networks for wave forecasting

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Mandal, S.; Prabaharan, N.

    , merchant vessel routing, nearshore construction, etc. more efficiently and safely. This paper presents an application of the Artificial Neural Network, namely Backpropagation Recurrent Neural Network (BRNN) with rprop update algorithm for wave forecasting...

  14. Flash floods: forecasting and warning

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Sene, Kevin

    2013-01-01

    ... and levees.The volume discusses the increasing use of meteorological observation and forecasting techniques to extend the lead time available for warning, combined with hydrological models for the river response...

  15. Forecasting and management of technology

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Roper, A. T

    2011-01-01

    .... The scope of this edition has broadened to include management of technology content that is relevant to now to executives in organizations while updating and strengthening the technology forecasting...

  16. Preparing for an Uncertain Forecast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karolak, Eric

    2011-01-01

    Navigating the world of government relations and public policy can be a little like predicting the weather. One can't always be sure what's in store or how it will affect him/her down the road. But there are common patterns and a few basic steps that can help one best prepare for a change in the forecast. Though the forecast is uncertain, early…

  17. Analyst Forecasts and Herding Behavior.

    OpenAIRE

    Trueman, Brett

    1994-01-01

    The use of analyst forecasts as proxies for investors' earnings expectations is commonplace in empirical research. An implicit assumption behind their use is that they reflect analysts' private information in an unbiased manner. As demonstrated here, this assumption is not necessarily valid. There is shown to be a tendency for analysts to release forecasts closer to prior earnings expectations than is appropriate, given their information. Further, analysts exhibit herding behavior, whereby th...

  18. Changes in position and quality of preferred nest box: effects on nest box use by laying hens

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Riber, Anja Brinch; Nielsen, Birte L.

    2013-01-01

    hens were housed in pens, each with five identical nest boxes in different positions: Two single (in a corner or not) and a triplet of nest boxes (one of which in a corner). The use of nest boxes was determined by the number of eggs laid daily in each box. Three experiments, each lasting 10 days, were...

  19. Central bank forecasting: an international comparison

    OpenAIRE

    John C. Robertson

    2000-01-01

    Forecasts, whether explicit or implicit, are at the heart of policy making. In considering forecasting for monetary policy, this article contrasts the forecasting processes at three central banks-the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, the Bank of England, and the U.S. Federal Reserve. ; In the United States policymakers consider confidential staff forecasts in policy discussions, but these do not necessarily represent the consensus forecasts of the policy committee. At the Bank of England, official...

  20. HESS Opinions "Forecaster priorities for improving probabilistic flood forecasts"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wetterhall, F.; Pappenberger, F.; Alfieri, L.; Cloke, H. L.; Thielen-del Pozo, J.; Balabanova, S.; Daňhelka, J.; Vogelbacher, A.; Salamon, P.; Carrasco, I.; Cabrera-Tordera, A. J.; Corzo-Toscano, M.; Garcia-Padilla, M.; Garcia-Sanchez, R. J.; Ardilouze, C.; Jurela, S.; Terek, B.; Csik, A.; Casey, J.; Stankūnavičius, G.; Ceres, V.; Sprokkereef, E.; Stam, J.; Anghel, E.; Vladikovic, D.; Alionte Eklund, C.; Hjerdt, N.; Djerv, H.; Holmberg, F.; Nilsson, J.; Nyström, K.; Sušnik, M.; Hazlinger, M.; Holubecka, M.

    2013-11-01

    Hydrological ensemble prediction systems (HEPS) have in recent years been increasingly used for the operational forecasting of floods by European hydrometeorological agencies. The most obvious advantage of HEPS is that more of the uncertainty in the modelling system can be assessed. In addition, ensemble prediction systems generally have better skill than deterministic systems both in the terms of the mean forecast performance and the potential forecasting of extreme events. Research efforts have so far mostly been devoted to the improvement of the physical and technical aspects of the model systems, such as increased resolution in time and space and better description of physical processes. Developments like these are certainly needed; however, in this paper we argue that there are other areas of HEPS that need urgent attention. This was also the result from a group exercise and a survey conducted to operational forecasters within the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS) to identify the top priorities of improvement regarding their own system. They turned out to span a range of areas, the most popular being to include verification of an assessment of past forecast performance, a multi-model approach for hydrological modelling, to increase the forecast skill on the medium range (>3 days) and more focus on education and training on the interpretation of forecasts. In light of limited resources, we suggest a simple model to classify the identified priorities in terms of their cost and complexity to decide in which order to tackle them. This model is then used to create an action plan of short-, medium- and long-term research priorities with the ultimate goal of an optimal improvement of EFAS in particular and to spur the development of operational HEPS in general.

  1. Advances in the theory of box integrals

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bailey, David H.; Borwein, J.M.; Crandall, R.E.

    2009-06-25

    Box integrals - expectations <|{rvec r}|{sup s}> or <|{rvec r}-{rvec q}|{sup s}> over the unit n-cube (or n-box) - have over three decades been occasionally given closed forms for isolated n,s. By employing experimental mathematics together with a new, global analytic strategy, we prove that for n {le} 4 dimensions the box integrals are for any integer s hypergeometrically closed in a sense we clarify herein. For n = 5 dimensions, we show that a single unresolved integral we call K{sub 5} stands in the way of such hyperclosure proofs. We supply a compendium of exemplary closed forms that naturally arise algorithmically from this theory.

  2. Reassessment of the nonlocality of correlation boxes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Costa, A.P.; Parisio, Fernando, E-mail: parisio@df.ufpe.br

    2017-01-15

    Correlation boxes are hypothetical systems usually designed to produce the maximal algebraic violation of a Bell inequality, beyond the quantum bound and without superluminal signalling. The fact that these systems show stronger correlations than those presented by maximally entangled quantum states, as the spin singlet, has been regarded as a demonstration that the former are more nonlocal than the latter. By applying an alternative, consistent measure of nonlocality to a family of correlation boxes, we show that this conclusion is not necessarily true. Complementarily, we define a class of systems displaying subquantum correlations which, nevertheless, are more nonlocal than the singlet state, showing that the extent of the numeric violation of an inequality may have little to do with the degree of nonlocality, especially in the case of correlation boxes.

  3. A white box perspective on behavioural adaptation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bruni, Roberto; Corradini, Andrea; Gadducci, Fabio

    2015-01-01

    We present a white-box conceptual framework for adaptation developed in the context of the EU Project ASCENS coordinated by Martin Wirsing. We called it CoDA, for Control Data Adaptation, since it is based on the notion of control data. CoDA promotes a neat separation between application and adap......We present a white-box conceptual framework for adaptation developed in the context of the EU Project ASCENS coordinated by Martin Wirsing. We called it CoDA, for Control Data Adaptation, since it is based on the notion of control data. CoDA promotes a neat separation between application...

  4. Virtualisointi VirtualBox-ohjelman avulla

    OpenAIRE

    Pakka, Markku

    2011-01-01

    Tutkielmassani käsittelen aluksi palvelimia ja niiden tietoturvaa yleisesti, koska palvelinten tietoturva on tärkeää virtualisoitujen käyttöjärjestelmien turvallisuuden ja toimivuuden kannalta. Sen jälkeen siirryn käsittelemään virtualisointia ja sen tulevaisuutta. Seuraavaksi tutkin VirtualBox-ohjelmaa. Aluksi asennan VirtualBox-ohjelman Windows Vista-koneelle. Sen jälkeen käsittelen VirtualBoxin käyttöliittymää ja asennan Ubuntun virtuaalikäyttöjärjestelmäksi VirtualBoxin avulla. ...

  5. CASAS: A Smart Home in a Box.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cook, Diane J; Crandall, Aaron S; Thomas, Brian L; Krishnan, Narayanan C

    2013-07-01

    While the potential benefits of smart home technology are widely recognized, a lightweight design is needed for the benefits to be realized at a large scale. We introduce the CASAS "smart home in a box", a lightweight smart home design that is easy to install and provides smart home capabilities out of the box with no customization or training. We discuss types of data analysis that have been performed by the CASAS group and can be pursued in the future by using this approach to designing and implementing smart home technologies.

  6. Bayesian flood forecasting methods: A review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Shasha; Coulibaly, Paulin

    2017-08-01

    Over the past few decades, floods have been seen as one of the most common and largely distributed natural disasters in the world. If floods could be accurately forecasted in advance, then their negative impacts could be greatly minimized. It is widely recognized that quantification and reduction of uncertainty associated with the hydrologic forecast is of great importance for flood estimation and rational decision making. Bayesian forecasting system (BFS) offers an ideal theoretic framework for uncertainty quantification that can be developed for probabilistic flood forecasting via any deterministic hydrologic model. It provides suitable theoretical structure, empirically validated models and reasonable analytic-numerical computation method, and can be developed into various Bayesian forecasting approaches. This paper presents a comprehensive review on Bayesian forecasting approaches applied in flood forecasting from 1999 till now. The review starts with an overview of fundamentals of BFS and recent advances in BFS, followed with BFS application in river stage forecasting and real-time flood forecasting, then move to a critical analysis by evaluating advantages and limitations of Bayesian forecasting methods and other predictive uncertainty assessment approaches in flood forecasting, and finally discusses the future research direction in Bayesian flood forecasting. Results show that the Bayesian flood forecasting approach is an effective and advanced way for flood estimation, it considers all sources of uncertainties and produces a predictive distribution of the river stage, river discharge or runoff, thus gives more accurate and reliable flood forecasts. Some emerging Bayesian forecasting methods (e.g. ensemble Bayesian forecasting system, Bayesian multi-model combination) were shown to overcome limitations of single model or fixed model weight and effectively reduce predictive uncertainty. In recent years, various Bayesian flood forecasting approaches have been

  7. Advances in Solar Power Forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haupt, S. E.; Kosovic, B.; Drobot, S.

    2014-12-01

    The National Center for Atmospheric Research and partners are building a blended SunCast Solar Power Forecasting system. This system includes several short-range nowcasting models and improves upon longer range numerical weather prediction (NWP) models as part of the "Public-Private-Academic Partnership to Advance Solar Power Forecasting." The nowcasting models being built include statistical learning models that include cloud regime prediction, multiple sky imager-based advection models, satellite image-based advection models, and rapid update NWP models with cloud assimilation. The team has also integrated new modules into the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) to better predict clouds, aerosols, and irradiance. The modules include a new shallow convection scheme; upgraded physics parameterizations of clouds; new radiative transfer modules that specify GHI, DNI, and DIF prediction; better satellite assimilation methods; and new aerosol estimation methods. These new physical models are incorporated into WRF-Solar, which is then integrated with publically available NWP models via the Dynamic Integrated Forecast (DICast) system as well as the Nowcast Blender to provide seamless forecasts at partner utility and balancing authority commercial solar farms. The improvements will be described and results to date discussed.

  8. Revenue Forecast Errors in the European Union

    OpenAIRE

    Afonso, António; Carvalho, Rui

    2014-01-01

    In this paper we assess the determinants of revenue forecast errors for the EU-15 between 1999 and 2012, based on the forecasts published bi-annually by the European Commission. Our results show that personal income rate changes increase the revenue forecast errors: for forecasts made in t for t, increases in the corporate tax rate implies a decrease in the revenue forecast errors, in t+1 and t+2. Moreover, an increase in GDP forecast errors decreases revenue errors, whereas an increase in th...

  9. Two approaches to forecast Ebola synthetic epidemics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Champredon, David; Li, Michael; Bolker, Benjamin M; Dushoff, Jonathan

    2017-02-24

    We use two modelling approaches to forecast synthetic Ebola epidemics in the context of the RAPIDD Ebola Forecasting Challenge. The first approach is a standard stochastic compartmental model that aims to forecast incidence, hospitalization and deaths among both the general population and health care workers. The second is a model based on the renewal equation with latent variables that forecasts incidence in the whole population only. We describe fitting and forecasting procedures for each model and discuss their advantages and drawbacks. We did not find that one model was consistently better in forecasting than the other. Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  10. A New Reference for Wind Power Forecasting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Torben Skov; Joensen, Alfred K.; Madsen, Henrik

    1998-01-01

    In recent years some research towards developing forecasting models for wind power or energy has been carried out. In order to evaluate the prediction ability of these models, the forecasts are usually compared with those of the persistence forecast model. As shown in this article, however......, it is not reasonable to use the persistence model when the forecast length is more than a few hours. Instead, a new statistical reference for predicting wind power, which basically is a weighting between the persistence and the mean of the power, is proposed. This reference forecast model is adequate for all forecast...

  11. Study of WATCH GRB error boxes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gorosabel, J.; Castro-Tirado, A. J.; Lund, Niels

    1995-01-01

    We have studied the first WATCH GRB Catalogue ofγ-ray Bursts in order to find correlations between WATCH GRB error boxes and a great variety of celestial objects present in 33 different catalogues. No particular class of objects has been found to be significantly correlated with the WATCH GRBs....

  12. Expo-Box: Submit Tool Information

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA-Expo-Box is a toolbox for exposure assessors. Its purpose is to provide a compendium of exposure assessment and risk characterization tools that will present comprehensive step-by-step guidance and links to relevant exposure assessment data bases, mode

  13. Nest Boxes Artificial Homes for Woodland Mammals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Decker, Daniel J.; Kelley, John W.

    1983-01-01

    Provides instructions for constructing artificial "homes" for squirrels, raccoons, and rabbits. These include squirrel dens constructed from discarded automobile tires and squirrel nest boxes, raccoon dens, and rabbit burrows constructed from wood. Includes a chart giving dimensions of materials needed and suggestions on where to place the…

  14. Cereal Box Design: An Interdisciplinary Graphics Activity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fitzgerald, Mike; Tsosie, Teri

    2012-01-01

    The cereal box design activity is intriguing both for its simplicity and the resourcefulness that it can generate in young people. Also, it lends itself to a variety of curriculums. It covers both consumerism and Design for the Environment (DfE) concepts broadly and in depth. The activity introduces a wide range of topics. They include graphic…

  15. Comparing Box Plot Distributions: A Teacher's Reasoning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pfannkuch, Maxine

    2006-01-01

    Drawing conclusions from the comparison of datasets using informal statistical inference is a challenging task since the nature and type of reasoning expected is not fully understood. In this paper a secondary teacher's reasoning from the comparison of box plot distributions during the teaching of a Year 11 (15-year-old) class is analyzed. From…

  16. Activities: Exploring Data with Box Plots.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bryan, Elizabeth H.

    1988-01-01

    This set of activity sheets requires students to organize and display data with a box-and-whiskers graph. Students use the plot as a summary display to detect patterns and to highlight the important features of the data for purposes of comparison. (PK)

  17. Choreographies with Secure Boxes and Compromised Principals

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Carbone, Marco; Guttman, Joshua

    2009-01-01

      We equip choreography-level session descriptions with a simple abstraction of a security infrastruc- ture. Message components may be enclosed within (possibly nested) ”boxes” annotated with the intended source and destination of those components. The boxes are to be implemented with cryp...

  18. One-dimensional oscillator in a box

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Amore, Paolo [Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad de Colima, Bernal DIaz del Castillo 340, Colima, Colima (Mexico); Fernandez, Francisco M [INIFTA (UNLP, CCT La Plata-CONICET), Division Quimica Teorica, Blvd 113 S/N, Sucursal 4, Casilla de Correo 16, 1900 La Plata (Argentina)], E-mail: paolo@ucol.mx, E-mail: fernande@quimica.unlp.edu.ar

    2010-01-15

    We discuss a quantum-mechanical model of two particles that interact by means of a harmonic potential and are confined to a one-dimensional box with impenetrable walls. We apply perturbation theory to the cases of different and equal masses and analyse the symmetry of the states in the latter case. We compare the approximate perturbation results with accurate numerical ones.

  19. The black box of a mysterious disorder

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van der Helm, F.; Schouten, A.; De Vlugt, E.; Van der Sanden, M.

    2005-01-01

    Red and swollen limbs that feel hot or cold, a numb feeling, lack of mobility, and worst of all, pain. These are symptoms of post-traumatic dystrophy (PD). Researchers from various disciplines are working together in the TREND research consortium to open the black box of this mysterious disorder.

  20. Minimal Solutions to the Box Problem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chuang, Jer-Chin

    2009-01-01

    The "box problem" from introductory calculus seeks to maximize the volume of a tray formed by folding a strictly rectangular sheet from which identical squares have been cut from each corner. In posing such questions, one would like to choose integral side-lengths for the sheet so that the excised squares have rational or integral side-length.…

  1. Reflective Cracking between Precast Prestressed Box Girders

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-06-30

    The adjacent precast prestressed concrete box-beam bridge is the bridge of choice for short and short-to-medium span bridges. This choice is because of the ease of construction, favorable span-to-depth ratios, aesthetic appeal, and high torsional sti...

  2. Forecast Value Added (FVA Analysis as a Means to Improve the Efficiency of a Forecasting Process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Filip Chybalski

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available A praxeological approach has been proposed in order to improve a forecasting process through the employment of the forecast value added (FVA analysis. This may be interpreted as a manifestation of lean management in forecasting. The author discusses the concepts of the effectiveness and efficiency of forecasting. The former, defined in the praxeology as the degree to which goals are achieved, refers to the accuracy of forecasts. The latter reflects the relation between the benefits accruing from the results of forecasting and the costs incurred in this process. Since measuring the benefits accruing from a forecasting is very difficult, a simplification according to which this benefit is a function of the forecast accuracy is proposed. This enables evaluating the efficiency of the forecasting process. Since improving this process may consist of either reducing forecast error or decreasing costs, FVA analysis, which expresses the concept of lean management, may be applied to reduce the waste accompanying forecasting. (original abstract

  3. Medium Range Forecasts Representation (and Long Range Forecasts?)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vincendon, J.-C.

    2009-09-01

    The progress of the numerical forecasts urges us to interest us in more and more distant ranges. We thus supply more and more forecasts with term of some days. Nevertheless, precautions of use are necessary to give the most reliable and the most relevant possible information. Available in a TV bulletin or on quite other support (Internet, mobile phone), the interpretation and the representation of a medium range forecast (5 - 15 days) must be different from those of a short range forecast. Indeed, the "foresee-ability” of a meteorological phenomenon decreases gradually in the course of the ranges, it decreases all the more quickly that the phenomenon is of small scale. So, at the end of some days, the probability character of a forecast becomes very widely dominating. That is why in Meteo-France the forecasts of D+4 to D+7 are accompanied with a confidence index since around ten years. It is a figure between 1 and 5: the more we approach 5, the more the confidence in the supplied forecast is good. In the practice, an indication is supplied for period D+4 / D+5, the other one for period D+6 / D+7, every day being able to benefit from a different forecast, that is be represented in a independent way. We thus supply a global tendency over 24 hours with less and less precise symbols as the range goes away. Concrete examples will be presented. From now on two years, we also publish forecasts to D+8 / J+9, accompanied with a sign of confidence (" good reliability " or " to confirm "). These two days are grouped together on a single map because for us, the described tendency to this term is relevant on a duration about 48 hours with a spatial scale slightly superior to the synoptic scale. So, we avoid producing more than two zones of types of weather over France and we content with giving an evolution for the temperatures (still, in increase or in decline). Newspapers began to publish this information, it should soon be the case of televisions. It is particularly

  4. The clinicopathological significance of forkhead box P1 and forkhead box O3a in pancreatic ductal adenocarcinomas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luo, Xin; Yang, Zhulin; Liu, Xiao; Liu, Ziru; Miao, Xiongying; Li, Daiqiang; Zou, Qiong; Yuan, Yuan

    2017-05-01

    Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma is a highly malignant tumor with poor prognosis, and the biomarkers for the early diagnosis, targeting therapy, and prognosis are still not clinically available. This study investigated the expression of forkhead box P1 and forkhead box O3a proteins in human pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma tumor tissues and pancreatic tissues with and without benign lesions using immunohistochemical staining. Results showed that the positive rates of forkhead box P1 and forkhead box O3a protein expression were significantly lower in pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma tumors compared to peritumoral tissues, benign pancreatic tissues, and normal pancreatic tissues (p box P1 and forkhead box O3a protein expression exhibited dysplasia or intraepithelial neoplasia. The positive rates of forkhead box P1 and forkhead box O3a expression were significantly lower in cases with tumor mass >5 cm, lymph node metastasis, invasion to surrounding tissues and organs, and tumor-node-metastasis III + IV stage disease compared to cases with tumor mass ⩽5 cm (p box P1 and forkhead box O3a expression survived significantly shorter than patients with positive forkhead box P1 and forkhead box O3a expression (p = 0.000). Cox multivariate analysis revealed that negative forkhead box P1 and forkhead box O3a expression was an independent poor prognosis factor in pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma patients. The area under the curve of a receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.642 for forkhead box P1 (95% confidence interval: 0.553-0.730) and 0.655 for forkhead box O3a (95% confidence interval: 0.6568-0.742). Loss of forkhead box P1 and forkhead box O3a protein expression is associated with carcinogenesis, progression, and poor prognosis in patients with pancreatic ductal adenocarcinomas.

  5. Aggregate vehicle travel forecasting model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Greene, D.L.; Chin, Shih-Miao; Gibson, R. [Tennessee Univ., Knoxville, TN (United States)

    1995-05-01

    This report describes a model for forecasting total US highway travel by all vehicle types, and its implementation in the form of a personal computer program. The model comprises a short-run, econometrically-based module for forecasting through the year 2000, as well as a structural, scenario-based longer term module for forecasting through 2030. The short-term module is driven primarily by economic variables. It includes a detailed vehicle stock model and permits the estimation of fuel use as well as vehicle travel. The longer-tenn module depends on demographic factors to a greater extent, but also on trends in key parameters such as vehicle load factors, and the dematerialization of GNP. Both passenger and freight vehicle movements are accounted for in both modules. The model has been implemented as a compiled program in the Fox-Pro database management system operating in the Windows environment.

  6. Can the design of glove dispensing boxes influence glove contamination?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Assadian, O; Leaper, D J; Kramer, A; Ousey, K J

    2016-11-01

    Few studies have explored the microbial contamination of glove boxes in clinical settings. The objective of this observational study was to investigate whether a new glove packaging system in which single gloves are dispensed vertically, cuff end first, has lower levels of contamination on the gloves and on the surface around the box aperture compared with conventional glove boxes. Seven participating sites were provided with vertical glove dispensing systems (modified boxes) and conventional boxes. Before opening glove boxes, the surface around the aperture was sampled microbiologically to establish baseline levels of superficial contamination. Once the glove boxes were opened, the first pair of gloves in each box was sampled for viable bacteria. Thereafter, testing sites were visited on a weekly basis over a period of six weeks and the same microbiological assessments were made. The surface near the aperture of the modified boxes became significantly less contaminated over time compared with the conventional boxes (Pcontamination around the aperture. Overall, gloves from modified boxes showed significantly less colony-forming unit contamination than gloves from conventional boxes (Pcontamination. This simple improvement to glove box design reduces contamination of unused gloves. Such modifications could decrease the risk of microbial cross-transmission in settings that use gloves. However, such advantages do not substitute for strict hand hygiene compliance and appropriate use of non-sterile, single-use gloves. Copyright © 2016 The Healthcare Infection Society. All rights reserved.

  7. HMG-box sequences from microbats homologous to the human SOX30 HMG-box.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bullejos, M; Díaz de la Guardia, R; Barragán, M J; Sánchez, A

    2000-01-01

    SOX genes are a family of genes that encode for proteins which are characterised by the presence of a HMG-domain related to that of the mammalian sex-determining gene (SRY). By definition, the DNA binding domain of SOX genes is at least 50% identical to the 79 amino acid HMG domain of the SRY gene. We report here two HMG-box sequences from two microbat species (R. ferrumequinum and P. Pipistrellus) which were PCR amplified using a primer pair specific to the mouse Sry HMG-box. The high percentage of identity of this sequences with the human and mouse SOX30 HMG-box suggests that they are the SOX30 HMG-box for these two bat species.

  8. Reconciling White-Box and Black-Box Perspectives on Behavioral Self-adaptation

    OpenAIRE

    Bruni, Roberto; Corradini, Andrea; Gadducci, Fabio; Hölzl, Matthias; Lluch Lafuente, Alberto; Vandin, Andrea; Wirsing, Martin

    2015-01-01

    This paper proposes to reconcile two perspectives on behavioral adaptation commonly taken at different stages of the engineering of autonomic computing systems. Requirements engineering activities often take a black-box perspective: A system is considered to be adaptive with respect to an environment whenever the system is able to satisfy its goals irrespectively of the environment perturbations. Modeling and programming engineering activities often take a white-box perspective: A system is e...

  9. Forecast communication through the newspaper Part 1: Framing the forecaster

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harris, Andrew J. L.

    2015-04-01

    This review is split into two parts both of which address issues of forecast communication of an environmental disaster through the newspaper during a period of crisis. The first part explores the process by which information passes from the scientist or forecaster, through the media filter, to the public. As part of this filter preference, omission, selection of data, source, quote and story, as well as placement of the same information within an individual piece or within the newspaper itself, can serve to distort the message. The result is the introduction of bias and slant—that is, the message becomes distorted so as to favor one side of the argument against another as it passes through the filter. Bias can be used to support spin or agenda setting, so that a particular emphasis becomes placed on the story which exerts an influence on the reader's judgment. The net result of the filter components is either a negative (contrary) or positive (supportive) frame. Tabloidization of the news has also resulted in the use of strong, evocative, exaggerated words, headlines and images to support a frame. I illustrate these various elements of the media filter using coverage of the air space closure due to the April 2010 eruption of Eyjafjallajökull (Iceland). Using the British press coverage of this event it is not difficult to find examples of all media filter elements, application of which resulted in bias against the forecast and forecaster. These actors then became named and blamed. Within this logic, it becomes only too easy for forecasters and scientists to be framed in a negative way through blame culture. The result is that forecast is framed in such a way so as to cause the forecaster to be blamed for all losses associated with the loss-causing event. Within the social amplification of risk framework (SARF), this can amplify a negative impression of the risk, the event and the response. However, actions can be taken to avoid such an outcome. These actions

  10. Global Forecast System (GFS) [1 Deg.

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Global Forecast System (GFS) is a weather forecast model produced by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). Dozens of atmospheric and...

  11. WPC's Short Range Forecast Coded Bulletin

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Short Range Forecast Coded Bulletin. The Short Range Forecast Coded Bulletin describes the expected locations of high and low pressure centers, surface frontal...

  12. Road weather forecast quality analysis : project summary

    Science.gov (United States)

    2006-03-01

    The purpose of this research is to enhance the use of KDOTs Roadway Weather : Information System by improving the weather forecasts themselves and raising the level of : confidence in these forecasts.

  13. Introducing Government Contracts to Technology Forecasting

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Nikita Sergeyevich Nikitinsky; Dmitry Alexeyevich Ustalov; Sergey Alexandrovich Shashev

    2015-01-01

      Nowadays, technology forecasting has become a multidisciplinary field employing various methods for detecting patterns in data sources in order to forecast trends and future state of different technologies...

  14. Accuracy of forecasts in strategic intelligence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mandel, David R; Barnes, Alan

    2014-07-29

    The accuracy of 1,514 strategic intelligence forecasts abstracted from intelligence reports was assessed. The results show that both discrimination and calibration of forecasts was very good. Discrimination was better for senior (versus junior) analysts and for easier (versus harder) forecasts. Miscalibration was mainly due to underconfidence such that analysts assigned more uncertainty than needed given their high level of discrimination. Underconfidence was more pronounced for harder (versus easier) forecasts and for forecasts deemed more (versus less) important for policy decision making. Despite the observed underconfidence, there was a paucity of forecasts in the least informative 0.4-0.6 probability range. Recalibrating the forecasts substantially reduced underconfidence. The findings offer cause for tempered optimism about the accuracy of strategic intelligence forecasts and indicate that intelligence producers aim to promote informativeness while avoiding overstatement.

  15. Experts’ Misinterpretation of Box Plots – a Dual Processing Approach

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Stephanie Lem; Patrick Onghena; Lieven Verschaffel; Wim Van Dooren

    2014-01-01

    Recent studies have shown that students often misinterpret the area of the box in box plots as representing the frequency or proportion of observations in that interval, while it actually represents density...

  16. Forecasting Consumer Adoption of Information Technology and Services--Lessons from Home Video Forecasting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klopfenstein, Bruce C.

    1989-01-01

    Describes research that examined the strengths and weaknesses of technological forecasting methods by analyzing forecasting studies made for home video players. The discussion covers assessments and explications of correct and incorrect forecasting assumptions, and their implications for forecasting the adoption of home information technologies…

  17. Introducing Government Contracts to Technology Forecasting

    OpenAIRE

    Nikitinsky, Nikita Sergeyevich; Ustalov, Dmitry Alexeyevich; Shashev, Sergey Alexandrovich

    2015-01-01

    Nowadays, technology forecasting has become a multidisciplinary field employing various methods for detecting patterns in data sources in order to forecast trends and future state of different technologies. Technology forecasting is widely used by decision-makers for evaluating grant and contract proposals. Although there are some production-grade systems for technology forecasting for English, Russian patent databases and citation indexes are isolated from the global ones. This makes technol...

  18. A Delphi forecast of technology in education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robinson, B. E.

    1973-01-01

    The results are reported of a Delphi forecast of the utilization and social impacts of large-scale educational telecommunications technology. The focus is on both forecasting methodology and educational technology. The various methods of forecasting used by futurists are analyzed from the perspective of the most appropriate method for a prognosticator of educational technology, and review and critical analysis are presented of previous forecasts and studies. Graphic responses, summarized comments, and a scenario of education in 1990 are presented.

  19. Conceptual design and optimization methodology for box wing aircraft

    OpenAIRE

    Jemitola, Paul Olugbeji

    2012-01-01

    A conceptual design optimization methodology was developed for a medium range box wing aircraft. A baseline conventional cantilever wing aircraft designed for the same mis- sion and payload was also optimized alongside a baseline box wing aircraft. An empirical formula for the mass estimation of the fore and aft wings of the box wing aircraft was derived by relating conventional cantilever wings to box wing aircraft wings. The results indicate that the fore and aft wings would ...

  20. Box-Cox symmetric distributions and applications to nutritional data

    OpenAIRE

    Ferrari, Silvia L. P.; Fumes, Giovana

    2016-01-01

    We introduce the Box-Cox symmetric class of distributions, which is useful for modeling positively skewed, possibly heavy-tailed, data. The new class of distributions includes the Box-Cox t, Box-Cox Cole-Gree, Box-Cox power exponential distributions, and the class of the log-symmetric distributions as special cases. It provides easy parameter interpretation, which makes it convenient for regression modeling purposes. Additionally, it provides enough flexibility to handle outliers. The usefuln...

  1. Validating quantitative precipitation forecast for the Flood ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    In tropical regions like India, weather forecasting by using statistical and numerical methods is quite useful for operational purpose. In view of this, quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) might be done by adopting conventional synoptic analysis method since it can serve as a potential tool for operational flood forecasting ...

  2. Urban runoff forecasting with ensemble weather predictions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Jonas Wied; Courdent, Vianney Augustin Thomas; Vezzaro, Luca

    This research shows how ensemble weather forecasts can be used to generate urban runoff forecasts up to 53 hours into the future. The results highlight systematic differences between ensemble members that needs to be accounted for when these forecasts are used in practice....

  3. Location specific forecasting of maximum and minimum ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    But, accurate forecasting of surface param- eters, particularly maximum and minimum tem- peratures over India, is a difficult task due to. Keywords. Statistical bias correction; location specific forecast; DMO; Numerical Weather Prediction; maximum and minimum temperature forecast. J. Earth Syst. Sci. 123, No. 5, July 2014 ...

  4. New interval forecast for stationary autoregressive models ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In this paper, we proposed a new forecasting interval for stationary Autoregressive, AR(p) models using the Akaike information criterion (AIC) function. Ordinarily, the AIC function is used to determine the order of an AR(p) process. In this study however, AIC forecast interval compared favorably with the theoretical forecast ...

  5. Can Business Students Forecast Their Own Grade?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hossain, Belayet; Tsigaris, Panagiotis

    2013-01-01

    This study examines grade expectations of two groups of business students for their final course mark. We separate students that are on average "better" forecasters on the basis of them not making significant forecast errors during the semester from those students that are poor forecasters of their final grade. We find that the better…

  6. Interval Forecast for Smooth Transition Autoregressive Model ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In this paper, we propose a simple method for constructing interval forecast for smooth transition autoregressive (STAR) model. This interval forecast is based on bootstrapping the residual error of the estimated STAR model for each forecast horizon and computing various Akaike information criterion (AIC) function. This new ...

  7. Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts for African Basins

    Science.gov (United States)

    Serrat-Capdevila, A.; Valdes, J. B.; Wi, S.; Roy, T.; Roberts, J. B.; Robertson, F. R.; Demaria, E. M.

    2015-12-01

    Using high resolution downscaled seasonal meteorological forecasts we present the development and evaluation of seasonal hydrologic forecasts with Stakeholder Agencies for selected African basins. The meteorological forecasts are produced using the Bias Correction and Spatial Disaggregation (BCSD) methodology applied to NMME hindcasts (North American Multi-Model Ensemble prediction system) to generate a bootstrap resampling of plausible weather forecasts from historical observational data. This set of downscaled forecasts is then used to drive hydrologic models to produce a range of forecasts with uncertainty estimates suitable for water resources planning in African pilot basins (i.e. Upper Zambezi, Mara Basin). In an effort to characterize the utility of these forecasts, we will present an evaluation of these forecast ensembles over the pilot basins, and discuss insights as to their operational applicability by regional actors. Further, these forecasts will be contrasted with those from a standard Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) approach to seasonal forecasting. The case studies presented here have been developed in the setting of the NASA SERVIR Applied Sciences Team and within the broader context of operational seasonal forecasting in Africa. These efforts are part of a dialogue with relevant planning and management agencies and institutions in Africa, which are in turn exploring how to best use uncertain forecasts for decision making.

  8. Intermittent demand : Linking forecasting to inventory obsolescence

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Teunter, Ruud H.; Syntetos, Aris A.; Babai, M. Zied

    2011-01-01

    The standard method to forecast intermittent demand is that by Croston. This method is available in ERP-type solutions such as SAP and specialised forecasting software packages (e.g. Forecast Pro), and often applied in practice. It uses exponential smoothing to separately update the estimated demand

  9. Forecasting Market Shares from Models for Sales

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    D. Fok (Dennis); Ph.H.B.F. Franses (Philip Hans)

    2000-01-01

    textabstractDividing forecasts of brand sales by a forecast of category sales, when they are generated from brand specific sales-response models, renders biased forecasts of the brands' market shares. In this paper we therefore propose an easy-to-apply simulation-based method which results in

  10. Location specific forecasting of maximum and minimum ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Statistical bias correction; location specific forecast; DMO; Numerical Weather Prediction; maximum and minimum temperature forecast. Abstract. The output from Global Forecasting System (GFS) T574L64 operational at India Meteorological Department (IMD), New Delhi is used for obtaining location specific quantitative ...

  11. Transformative Environmental Education: Stepping Outside the Curriculum Box

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnston, Julie

    2009-01-01

    Environmental education has become trapped in the curriculum box. At a time when our students' generation is becoming trapped in a global warming box, their education needs to be rapidly adaptable to the changing state of their planet. Venturing outside the curriculum box takes courage, creativity, and a willingness to let nature serve as the…

  12. 76 FR 41411 - Group E Post Office Box Service

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-07-14

    ... 111 Group E Post Office Box Service AGENCY: Postal Service\\TM\\. ACTION: Final rule. SUMMARY: The... administration for Group E (free) Post Office\\TM\\ (PO) box service. DATES: Effective Date: September 6, 2011. FOR... facilitate uniform administration for Group E (free) PO Box\\TM\\ service. The Postal Service received several...

  13. 75 FR 71642 - Group E Post Office Box Service

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-11-24

    ... 111 Group E Post Office Box Service AGENCY: Postal Service\\TM\\. ACTION: Proposed rule. SUMMARY: The... administration for Group E (free) Post Office\\TM\\ (PO) Box service. DATES: We must receive your comments on or..., Washington, DC between 9 a.m. and 4 p.m., Monday through Friday. E-mail comments concerning the proposed box...

  14. 21 CFR 864.9185 - Blood grouping view box.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 21 Food and Drugs 8 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Blood grouping view box. 864.9185 Section 864.9185 Food and Drugs FOOD AND DRUG ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES (CONTINUED... and Blood Products § 864.9185 Blood grouping view box. (a) Identification. A blood grouping view box...

  15. 31 CFR 515.326 - Custody of safe deposit boxes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 31 Money and Finance: Treasury 3 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Custody of safe deposit boxes. 515... Definitions § 515.326 Custody of safe deposit boxes. Safe deposit boxes shall be deemed to be in the custody... upon the meaning of the term custody. ...

  16. 31 CFR 500.326 - Custody of safe deposit boxes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 31 Money and Finance: Treasury 3 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Custody of safe deposit boxes. 500... Definitions § 500.326 Custody of safe deposit boxes. Safe deposit boxes shall be deemed to be in the custody... upon the meaning of the term custody. ...

  17. 30 CFR 18.49 - Connection boxes on machines.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 30 Mineral Resources 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Connection boxes on machines. 18.49 Section 18..., AND APPROVAL OF MINING PRODUCTS ELECTRIC MOTOR-DRIVEN MINE EQUIPMENT AND ACCESSORIES Construction and Design Requirements § 18.49 Connection boxes on machines. Connection boxes used to facilitate replacement...

  18. Using Origami Boxes to Explore Concepts of Geometry and Calculus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wares, Arsalan

    2011-01-01

    The purpose of this classroom note is to provide an example of how a simple origami box can be used to explore important concepts of geometry and calculus. This article describes how an origami box can be folded, then it goes on to describe how its volume and surface area can be calculated. Finally, it describes how the box could be folded to…

  19. 49 CFR 230.102 - Tender plain bearing journal boxes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Tender plain bearing journal boxes. 230.102... Locomotives and Tenders Running Gear § 230.102 Tender plain bearing journal boxes. Plain bearing journal boxes... expected to damage the bearing; or have a detrimental effect on the lubrication of the journal and bearing...

  20. 49 CFR 230.103 - Tender roller bearing journal boxes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Tender roller bearing journal boxes. 230.103... Locomotives and Tenders Running Gear § 230.103 Tender roller bearing journal boxes. Tender roller bearing journal boxes shall be maintained in a safe and suitable condition. ...

  1. Severe Weather Forecast Decision Aid

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bauman, William H., III; Wheeler, Mark M.; Short, David A.

    2005-01-01

    This report presents a 15-year climatological study of severe weather events and related severe weather atmospheric parameters. Data sources included local forecast rules, archived sounding data, Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Surveillance System (CGLSS) data, surface and upper air maps, and two severe weather event databases covering east-central Florida. The local forecast rules were used to set threat assessment thresholds for stability parameters that were derived from the sounding data. The severe weather events databases were used to identify days with reported severe weather and the CGLSS data was used to differentiate between lightning and non-lightning days. These data sets provided the foundation for analyzing the stability parameters and synoptic patterns that were used to develop an objective tool to aid in forecasting severe weather events. The period of record for the analysis was May - September, 1989 - 2003. The results indicate that there are certain synoptic patterns more prevalent on days with severe weather and some of the stability parameters are better predictors of severe weather days based on locally tuned threat values. The results also revealed the stability parameters that did not display any skill related to severe weather days. An interactive web-based Severe Weather Decision Aid was developed to assist the duty forecaster by providing a level of objective guidance based on the analysis of the stability parameters, CGLSS data, and synoptic-scale dynamics. The tool will be tested and evaluated during the 2005 warm season.

  2. Forecasting Interest Rates and Inflation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chun, Albert Lee

    the best overall for short horizon forecasts of short to medium term yields and inflation. Econometric models with shrinkage perform the best over longer horizons and maturities. Aggregating over a larger set of analysts improves inflation surveys while generally degrading interest rates surveys. We...

  3. In Brief: Forecasting meningitis threats

    Science.gov (United States)

    Showstack, Randy

    2008-12-01

    The University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR), in conjunction with a team of health and weather organizations, has launched a project to provide weather forecasts to medical officials in Africa to help reduce outbreaks of meningitis. The forecasts will enable local health care providers to target vaccination programs more effectively. In 2009, meteorologists with the National Center for Atmospheric Research, which is managed by UCAR, will begin issuing 14-day forecasts of atmospheric conditions in Ghana. Later, UCAR plans to work closely with health experts from several African countries to design and test a decision support system to provide health officials with useful meteorological information. ``By targeting forecasts in regions where meningitis is a threat, we may be able to help vulnerable populations. Ultimately, we hope to build on this project and provide information to public health programs battling weather-related diseases in other parts of the world,'' said Rajul Pandya, director of UCAR's Community Building Program. Funding for the project comes from a $900,000 grant from Google.org, the philanthropic arm of the Internet search company.

  4. Forecasting the space weather impact

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Crosby, N. B.; Veronig, A.; Robbrecht, E.

    2012-01-01

    The FP7 COronal Mass Ejections and Solar Energetic Particles (COMESEP) project is developing tools for forecasting geomagnetic storms and solar energetic particle (SEP) radiation storms. By analysis of historical data, complemented by the extensive data coverage of solar cycle 23, the key ingredi...

  5. Understanding and Forecasting Ethnolinguistic Vitality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karan, Mark E.

    2011-01-01

    Forecasting of ethnolinguistic vitality can only be done within a well-functioning descriptive and explanatory model of the dynamics of language stability and shift. It is proposed that the Perceived Benefit Model of Language Shift, used with a taxonomy of language shift motivations, provides that model. The model, based on individual language…

  6. Adaptive correction of ensemble forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pelosi, Anna; Battista Chirico, Giovanni; Van den Bergh, Joris; Vannitsem, Stephane

    2017-04-01

    Forecasts from numerical weather prediction (NWP) models often suffer from both systematic and non-systematic errors. These are present in both deterministic and ensemble forecasts, and originate from various sources such as model error and subgrid variability. Statistical post-processing techniques can partly remove such errors, which is particularly important when NWP outputs concerning surface weather variables are employed for site specific applications. Many different post-processing techniques have been developed. For deterministic forecasts, adaptive methods such as the Kalman filter are often used, which sequentially post-process the forecasts by continuously updating the correction parameters as new ground observations become available. These methods are especially valuable when long training data sets do not exist. For ensemble forecasts, well-known techniques are ensemble model output statistics (EMOS), and so-called "member-by-member" approaches (MBM). Here, we introduce a new adaptive post-processing technique for ensemble predictions. The proposed method is a sequential Kalman filtering technique that fully exploits the information content of the ensemble. One correction equation is retrieved and applied to all members, however the parameters of the regression equations are retrieved by exploiting the second order statistics of the forecast ensemble. We compare our new method with two other techniques: a simple method that makes use of a running bias correction of the ensemble mean, and an MBM post-processing approach that rescales the ensemble mean and spread, based on minimization of the Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS). We perform a verification study for the region of Campania in southern Italy. We use two years (2014-2015) of daily meteorological observations of 2-meter temperature and 10-meter wind speed from 18 ground-based automatic weather stations distributed across the region, comparing them with the corresponding COSMO

  7. The Central Nervous System of Box Jellyfish

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Garm, Anders Lydik; Ekström, Peter

    2008-01-01

    of behaviors in the box jellyfish such as obstacle avoidance and navigation. The need to process the visual information and turn it into the appropriate behavior puts strong demands on the nervous system of box jellyfish, which appears more elaborate than in other cnidarians. Here, the central part...... of this nervous system is described. Each rhopalium holds a separate part of the CNS with 1,000 nerve cells and a large amount of neuropil. The rhopalial nervous system has several subsystems defined by the anatomy, location, and immunocytochemistry of the cells. Most of the subsystems connect to one or more...... of the eye types, and it is likely that the rhopalial nervous system accounts for most of the visual processing. The major part of the CNS is made up of a ring nerve encircling the bell shaped body. The ring nerve holds around 10,000 cells and is directly connected to all four rhopalial nervous systems...

  8. Fatal exit the automotive black box debate

    CERN Document Server

    Kowalick, Tom

    2005-01-01

    "Fatal Exit: The Automotive Black Box Debate cuts through thirty years of political wrangling and institutional biases to provide an argument for the Motor Vehicle Event Data Recorder (MVEDR). This automotive equivalent of an airplane's flight recorder or black box is intended to solve the mysteries of car crashes and improve the safety of our roads. The reader is taken inside the automotive industry and the government highway safety establishment to foster an understanding of the politics and the positions on all sides of this safety debate. The author takes an unbiased approach, chronologically presenting each argument and uncovering the agendas and mandates of each of the stakeholders." "This publication is essential reading for all consumers who need to have their voices heard on this critical issue, as well as for attorneys, public safety advocates, public policy administrators, engineers, automotive professionals, journalists, and insurance executives."--Jacket.

  9. Design and Optimize an Automatic Medicine Box

    OpenAIRE

    Lai, Lin; Wu, Shengmin

    2010-01-01

    Our work is to design an automatic and intelligent medicine box to help most people to take the medicine easily, especially for the arthritis, the elderly, the forgetful people and the kids. First, five different structures have been designed by CAD Inventor software. One of them, which can be carried out the most easily in reality, has been chosen to complete with a dynamic system. Considering the characteristic of medicine, there are two schemes in the structure designs are ideal. Several c...

  10. Can the box plot be improved?

    OpenAIRE

    Chamnein Choonpradub; Don McNeil

    2005-01-01

    Invented by Spear in 1952 and popularized by Tukey in 1977, the box plot is widely used for displaying and comparing samples of continuous observations. Despite its popularity, it is less effective for showing shape behaviour of distributions, particularly bimodality. Using robust estimators of data skewness and kurtosis to classify the distribution into categories, we suggest a simple enhancement for indicating bimodality, central peakedness, and skewness. We also suggest a new graphical met...

  11. The Spectra of Des S-Boxes

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-06-01

    Properties of Cayley Graphs Associated with S-Box 8 BFs. . . . . 132 Table 6.51 The DES Functions with Ramanujan Cayley Graphs. . . . . . . . 136 Table...interesting case occurs when this inequality is not satisfied. Alexander Lubotzky et al. [89] coined the term Ramanujan graph for an r-regular graph in which...the largest eigenvalue other than λn = r is less than or equal to the Alon-Boppana bound. Ramanujan graphs are named after Indian mathematician

  12. Avionics Box Cold Plate Damage Prevention

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stambolian, Damon; Larcher, Steven; Henderson, Gena; Tran, Donald

    2011-01-01

    Over the years there have been several occurrences of damage to Space Shuttle Orbiter cold plates during removal and replacement of avionics boxes. Thus a process improvement team was put together to determine ways to prevent these kinds of damage. From this effort there were many solutions including, protective covers, training, and improved operations instructions. The focus of this paper is to explain the cold plate damage problem and the corrective actions for preventing future damage to aerospace avionics cold plate designs.

  13. Interferometric investigation of convection in plexiglas boxes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koster, J. N.

    1983-09-01

    Real-time holographic interferometry is used to study free convection in cavities heated from below and bounded by Plexiglas windows. Advantages and shortcomings of this visualization technique applied to such Plexiglas boxes are discussed. As Plexiglas has a high temperature-dependent refractive index, temperature fields in the windows and the fluid layer are visualized. These visualizations furnished proof of a pronounced thermal influence of the walls on the flow pattern based on what we call “thermal memory” of Plexiglas.

  14. Monitoring Instrument for X-Ray Box

    CERN Document Server

    Cifuentes Ospina, Alberto; Kuehn, Susanne; Schaepe, Steffen; CERN. Geneva. EP Department

    2017-01-01

    A humidity and temperature readout instrument has been designed and implemented in order to monitor the X-Ray Box used for testing the silicon detectors prototypes of the ITk. The sensors are connected to an Arduino Mega board equipped with 16 analog inputs and a serial port to a computer. A user-friendly software has been also designed in order to give an easy access to all measurements.

  15. PCB-Based Break-Out Box

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Jason H.

    2011-01-01

    Break-out boxes (BOBs) are necessary for all electrical integration/cable checkouts and troubleshooting. Because the price of a BOB is high, and no work can be done without one, often the procedure stops, simply waiting for a BOB. A less expensive BOB would take less time in the integration, testing, and troubleshooting process. The PCB-based BOB works and looks the same as a standard JPL BOB, called Gold Boxes. The only differences between the old BOB and the new PCB-based BOB is that the new one has 80 percent of its circuitry in a printed circuit board. This process reduces the time for fabrication, thus making the BOBs less expensive. Moreover, because of its unique design, the new BOBs can be easily assembled and fixed. About 80 percent of the new PCB-based BOB is in a $22 (at the time of this reporting) custom-designed, yet commercially available PCB. This device has been used successfully to verify that BOB cables were properly made. Also, upon completion, the BOB was beeped out via a multimeter to ensure that all sockets on the connectors were properly connected to the respective banana jack. When compared to the Gold Box BOBs, the new BOB has many advantages. It is much more cost efficient, it delivers equal usability at substantially lower cost of the BOB, and the Gold Box is much heavier when compared to the new BOB. The new BOB is also a bit longer and much more versatile in that connectors are easily changeable and if a banana jack is broken, it can be replaced instead of throwing away an entire BOB.

  16. Box fractal dimension in speckle images

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rabal, Héctor; Grumel, Eduardo; Cap, Nelly; Buffarini, Leandro; Trivi, Marcelo

    2017-06-01

    In this paper, we propose a generalization of the box fractal dimension in images by considering the curve obtained from its value as a function of the binarization threshold. This curve can be used to describe speckle patterns. We show some examples of both objective simulated and experimental and subjective speckle in some cases of interest. The concept can be extended for all types of images.

  17. Online load forecasting for supermarket refrigeration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bacher, Peder; Madsen, Henrik; Nielsen, Henrik Aalborg

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a study of models for forecasting the load for supermarket refrigeration. The data used for building the forecasting models consists of load measurements, local climate measurements and weather forecasts. The load measurements are from a supermarket located in a village...... in Denmark. Every hour the hourly load for refrigeration for the following 42 hours is forecasted. The forecast models are time adaptive linear time-series models. The dynamic relations between the inputs and the load is modeled by simple transfer functions. The system operates in two regimes: one...

  18. Forecasting Interest Rates Using Geostatistical Techniques

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giuseppe Arbia

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Geostatistical spatial models are widely used in many applied fields to forecast data observed on continuous three-dimensional surfaces. We propose to extend their use to finance and, in particular, to forecasting yield curves. We present the results of an empirical application where we apply the proposed method to forecast Euro Zero Rates (2003–2014 using the Ordinary Kriging method based on the anisotropic variogram. Furthermore, a comparison with other recent methods for forecasting yield curves is proposed. The results show that the model is characterized by good levels of predictions’ accuracy and it is competitive with the other forecasting models considered.

  19. Quantile forecast discrimination ability and value

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ben Bouallègue, Zied; Pinson, Pierre; Friederichs, Petra

    2015-01-01

    While probabilistic forecast verification for categorical forecasts is well established, some of the existing concepts and methods have not found their equivalent for the case of continuous variables. New tools dedicated to the assessment of forecast discrimination ability and forecast value are ...... is illustrated based on synthetic datasets, as well as for the case of global radiation forecasts from the high resolution ensemble COSMO-DE-EPS of the German Weather Service.......While probabilistic forecast verification for categorical forecasts is well established, some of the existing concepts and methods have not found their equivalent for the case of continuous variables. New tools dedicated to the assessment of forecast discrimination ability and forecast value...... are introduced here, based on quantile forecasts being the base product for the continuous case. The relative user characteristic (RUC) curve and the quantile value plot allow analysing the performance of a forecast for a specific user in a decision-making framework. The RUC curve is designed as a user...

  20. How to Improve the SPF Forecasts?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bratu (Simionescu Mihaela

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available The reduction of forecasts uncertainty is one of the major goal to be achieved in forecasting process. This implies the improvement of predictions accuracy. In this study, many types of forecasts of the annual rate of change for the HICP for EU were developed, their accuracy was evaluated and compared with the accuracy of SPF predictions. All the proposed predictions for January 2010-May 2012 (those based on a random walk developed for 1997-2009, combined forecasts, the median and the mean of forecasts, predictions based on different econometric models that take into account the previous SPF forecasts were not more accurate than the naïve forecasts or SPF ones. A considerably improvement of the accuracy was gotten for predictions based on mean error of SPF expectations for 1997-2009 and the previous registered value. This empirical strategy of building more accurate forecasts was better than the classical theoretical approaches from literature, but it is still less accurate than the naïve forecasts that could be made for UE inflation rate. So, the forecasts based on a simple econometric model as the random walk from the naïve approach are the most accurate, conclusion that is in accordance with the latest researches in literature and with one of the essential condition in forecasting theory.

  1. Prohibiting Headgear for Safety in Amateur Boxing? Opinion of the Canadian Boxing Community: an Online Poll.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dickinson, Philip; Rempel, Philip

    In 2013, the Amateur International Boxing Association (AIBA) introduced a rule banning headgear for male-senior open class boxers during competition. The AIBA has defended the rule change as motivated by safety and supported by internal unpublished studies. As a result, in 2018, the AIBA plans to universally prohibit headgear in competition: for all competitors (male and female), all ages and all levels. Within Canada, this ruling has generated controversy in the boxing community, yet there has been no overall measure of opinion. To address this, we instituted a voluntary, anonymous, online open-access poll to allow members of the boxing community to express their stance on headgear use in competition. In total, 636 responses were received. A total of 71.5 % of Canadian respondents believed headgear should be mandatory at all levels. Only 5.8 % agreed that headgear should be prohibited, as planned for 2018. Estimating results on a representative breakdown of boxing membership in Canada, a similar pattern emerged, whereby 68.2 % concurred with mandatory headgear while only 4.95 % supported its prohibition. Parents of boxers were almost unanimously against banning headgear, stating they would change sports as a result. Similarly, only 1.7 % of women believed headgear should be prohibited. The consensus of the Canadian boxing community largely opposes the rule changes that the AIBA has implemented. The results highlight risks posed to the long-term viability of the sport, if significant grassroots safety concerns are disregarded.

  2. Effective Feature Preprocessing for Time Series Forecasting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhao, Junhua; Dong, Zhaoyang; Xu, Zhao

    2006-01-01

    Time series forecasting is an important area in data mining research. Feature preprocessing techniques have significant influence on forecasting accuracy, therefore are essential in a forecasting model. Although several feature preprocessing techniques have been applied in time series forecasting......, there is so far no systematic research to study and compare their performance. How to select effective techniques of feature preprocessing in a forecasting model remains a problem. In this paper, the authors conduct a comprehensive study of existing feature preprocessing techniques to evaluate their empirical...... performance in time series forecasting. It is demonstrated in our experiment that, effective feature preprocessing can significantly enhance forecasting accuracy. This research can be a useful guidance for researchers on effectively selecting feature preprocessing techniques and integrating them with time...

  3. Measuring inaccuracy in travel demand forecasting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Flyvbjerg, Bent

    2005-01-01

    Project promoters, forecasters, and managers sometimes object to two things in measuring inaccuracy in travel demand forecasting: (1)using the forecast made at the time of making the decision to build as the basis for measuring inaccuracy and (2)using traffic during the first year of operations...... as the basis for measurement. This paper presents the case against both objections. First, if one is interested in learning whether decisions about building transport infrastructure are based on reliable information, then it is exactly the traffic forecasted at the time of making the decision to build...... in travel demand forecasts are likely to be conservatively biased, i.e., accuracy in travel demand forecasts estimated from such samples would likely be higher than accuracy in travel demand forecasts in the project population. This bias must be taken into account when interpreting the results from...

  4. Organizational Learning Supported by Machine Learning Models Coupled with General Explanation Methods: A Case of B2B Sales Forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bohanec Marko

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Background and Purpose: The process of business to business (B2B sales forecasting is a complex decision-making process. There are many approaches to support this process, but mainly it is still based on the subjective judgment of a decision-maker. The problem of B2B sales forecasting can be modeled as a classification problem. However, top performing machine learning (ML models are black boxes and do not support transparent reasoning. The purpose of this research is to develop an organizational model using ML model coupled with general explanation methods. The goal is to support the decision-maker in the process of B2B sales forecasting.

  5. Grey Box Modelling of Flow in Sewer Systems with State Dependent Diffusion

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Breinholt, Anders; Thordarson, Fannar Örn; Møller, Jan Kloppenborg

    2011-01-01

    flow prediction limits, because the observation noise is proportionally scaled with the modelled output. Finally it is concluded that a state proportional diffusion term best and adequately describes the one-step flow prediction uncertainty, and a proper description of the system noise is important......Generating flow forecasts with uncertainty limits from rain gauge inputs in sewer systems require simple models with identifiable parameters that can adequately describe the stochastic phenomena of the system. In this paper, a simple grey-box model is proposed that is attractive for both....... It is shown that an additive diffusion noise term description leads to a violation of the physical constraints of the system, whereas a state dependent diffusion noise avoids this problem and should be favoured. It is also shown that a logarithmic transformation of the flow measurements secures positive lower...

  6. Business intelligence from social media: a study from the VAST Box Office Challenge.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Yafeng; Wang, Feng; Maciejewski, Ross

    2014-01-01

    With over 16 million tweets per hour, 600 new blog posts per minute, and 400 million active users on Facebook, businesses have begun searching for ways to turn real-time consumer-based posts into actionable intelligence. The goal is to extract information from this noisy, unstructured data and use it for trend analysis and prediction. Current practices support the idea that visual analytics (VA) can help enable the effective analysis of such data. However, empirical evidence demonstrating the effectiveness of a VA solution is still lacking. A proposed VA toolkit extracts data from Bitly and Twitter to predict movie revenue and ratings. Results from the 2013 VAST Box Office Challenge demonstrate the benefit of an interactive environment for predictive analysis, compared to a purely statistical modeling approach. The VA approach used by the toolkit is generalizable to other domains involving social media data, such as sales forecasting and advertisement analysis.

  7. Probabilistic online runoff forecasting for urban catchments using inputs from rain gauges as well as statically and dynamically adjusted weather radar

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Löwe, Roland; Thorndahl, Søren; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen

    2014-01-01

    We investigate the application of rainfall observations and forecasts from rain gauges and weather radar as input to operational urban runoff forecasting models. We apply lumped rainfall runoff models implemented in a stochastic grey-box modelling framework. Different model structures...... are considered that account for the spatial distribution of rainfall in different degrees of detail. Considering two urban example catchments, we show that statically adjusted radar rainfall input improves the quality of probabilistic runoff forecasts as compared to input based on rain gauge observations......, although the characteristics of these radar measurements are rather different from those on the ground. Data driven runoff forecasting models can to some extent adapt to bias of the rainfall input by model parameter calibration and state-updating. More detailed structures in these models provide improved...

  8. 49 CFR 178.512 - Standards for steel or aluminum boxes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 2 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Standards for steel or aluminum boxes. 178.512... aluminum boxes. (a) The following are identification codes for steel or aluminum boxes: (1) 4A for a steel box; and (2) 4B for an aluminum box. (b) Construction requirements for steel or aluminum boxes are as...

  9. Bats as bushmeat in Madagascar | Jenkins | Madagascar ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    http://dx.doi.org/10.4314/mcd.v3i1.44132 · AJOL African Journals Online. HOW TO USE AJOL... for Researchers · for Librarians · for Authors. OTHER RESOURCES... for Researchers · for Journals · for Authors · for Policy Makers · about Open Access · FAQ's · News · AJOL jobs · More about AJOL · AJOL's Partners · Contact ...

  10. Bats as bushmeat in Madagascar | Jenkins | Madagascar ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Madagascar Conservation & Development. Journal Home · ABOUT · Advanced Search · Current Issue · Archives · Journal Home > Vol 3, No 1 (2008) >. Log in or Register to get access to full text downloads. Username, Password, Remember me, or Register · Download this PDF file. The PDF file you selected should load ...

  11. Bats as bushmeat in Madagascar | Jenkins | Madagascar ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Bats are eaten by people throughout Madagascar and although the larger species like Pteropus rufus, Eidolon dupreanum, Rousettus madagascariensis and Hipposideros commersoni are preferred, small insectivorous bats are also eaten. The national hunting season for bats is widely ignored and both unsuitable

  12. Judgmental Forecasting of Operational Capabilities

    OpenAIRE

    Hallin, Carina Antonia; Tveterås, Sigbjørn; Andersen, Torben Juul

    2012-01-01

    This paper explores a new judgmental forecasting indicator, the Employee Sensed Operational Capabilities (ESOC). The purpose of the ESOC is to establish a practical prediction tool that can provide early signals about changes in financial performance by gauging frontline employees’ sensing of changes in the firm’s operational capabilities. We present the first stage of the development of ESOC by applying a formative measurement approach to test the index in relation to financia...

  13. Confessions of an International Forecaster

    OpenAIRE

    Thomas M. Fullerton Jr

    2004-01-01

    Impacts of the availability of low cost computing power on macroeconometric forecasting and research in Latin America are widespread. One of the most immediate effects of the adoption of microcomputing hardware was more rapid adoption of new econometric estimation techniques. Easier development and maintenace of large-scale modeling systems for individual economies also became feasible. Greater flexibility in analyzing major policy innovations such as the Brady initiative for international de...

  14. Reconciling White-Box and Black-Box Perspectives on Behavioral Self-adaptation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bruni, Roberto; Corradini, Andrea; Gadducci, Fabio

    2015-01-01

    This paper proposes to reconcile two perspectives on behavioral adaptation commonly taken at different stages of the engineering of autonomic computing systems. Requirements engineering activities often take a black-box perspective: A system is considered to be adaptive with respect...... to an environment whenever the system is able to satisfy its goals irrespectively of the environment perturbations. Modeling and programming engineering activities often take a white-box perspective: A system is equipped with suitable adaptation mechanisms and its behavior is classified as adaptive depending...... and possibly modify the adaptation requirements, models and programs of an autonomic system....

  15. Communicating uncertainty in hydrological forecasts: mission impossible?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramos, Maria-Helena; Mathevet, Thibault; Thielen, Jutta; Pappenberger, Florian

    2010-05-01

    Cascading uncertainty in meteo-hydrological modelling chains for forecasting and integrated flood risk assessment is an essential step to improve the quality of hydrological forecasts. Although the best methodology to quantify the total predictive uncertainty in hydrology is still debated, there is a common agreement that one must avoid uncertainty misrepresentation and miscommunication, as well as misinterpretation of information by users. Several recent studies point out that uncertainty, when properly explained and defined, is no longer unwelcome among emergence response organizations, users of flood risk information and the general public. However, efficient communication of uncertain hydro-meteorological forecasts is far from being a resolved issue. This study focuses on the interpretation and communication of uncertain hydrological forecasts based on (uncertain) meteorological forecasts and (uncertain) rainfall-runoff modelling approaches to decision-makers such as operational hydrologists and water managers in charge of flood warning and scenario-based reservoir operation. An overview of the typical flow of uncertainties and risk-based decisions in hydrological forecasting systems is presented. The challenges related to the extraction of meaningful information from probabilistic forecasts and the test of its usefulness in assisting operational flood forecasting are illustrated with the help of two case-studies: 1) a study on the use and communication of probabilistic flood forecasting within the European Flood Alert System; 2) a case-study on the use of probabilistic forecasts by operational forecasters from the hydroelectricity company EDF in France. These examples show that attention must be paid to initiatives that promote or reinforce the active participation of expert forecasters in the forecasting chain. The practice of face-to-face forecast briefings, focusing on sharing how forecasters interpret, describe and perceive the model output forecasted

  16. Agrometeorological models for forecasting the qualitative attributes of "Valência" oranges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moreto, Victor Brunini; Rolim, Glauco de Souza; Zacarin, Bruno Gustavo; Vanin, Ana Paula; de Souza, Leone Maia; Latado, Rodrigo Rocha

    2017-11-01

    Forecasting is the act of predicting unknown future events using available data. Estimating, in contrast, uses data to simulate an actual condition. Brazil is the world's largest producer of oranges, and the state of São Paulo is the largest producer in Brazil. The "Valência" orange is among the most common cultivars in the state. We analyzed the influence of monthly meteorological variables during the growth cycle of Valência oranges grafted onto "Rangpur" lime rootstocks (VACR) for São Paulo, and developed monthly agrometeorological models for forecasting the qualitative attributes of VACR in mature orchard. For fruits per box for all months, the best accuracy was of 0.84 % and the minimum forecast range of 4 months. For the relation between °brix and juice acidity (RATIO) the best accuracy was of 0.69 % and the minimum forecast range of 5 months. Minimum, mean and maximum air temperatures, and relative evapotranspiration were the most important variables in the models.

  17. Neural networks-based operational prototype for flash flood forecasting: application to Liane flash floods (France

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bertin Dominique

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The Liane River is a small costal river, famous for its floods, which can affect the city of Boulogne-sur-Mer. Due to the complexity of land cover and hydrologic processes, a black-box non-linear modelling was chosen using neural networks. The multilayer perceptron model, known for its property of universal approximation is thus chosen. Four models were designed, each one for one forecasting horizon using rainfall forecasts: 24h, 12h, 6h, 3h. The desired output of the model is original: it represents the maximal value of the water level respectively 24h, 12h, 6h, 3h ahead. Working with best forecasts of rain (the observed ones during the event in the past, on the major flood of the database in test set, the model provides excellent forecasts. Nash criteria calculated for the four lead times are 0.98 (3h, 0.97 (6h, 0.91 (12h, 0.89 (24h. Designed models were thus estimated as efficient enough to be implemented in a specific tool devoted to real time operational use. The software tool is described hereafter: designed in Java, it presents a friendly interface allowing applying various scenarios of future rainfalls, and a graphical visualization of the predicted maximum water levels and their associated real time observed values.

  18. Type- and Subtype-Specific Influenza Forecast.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kandula, Sasikiran; Yang, Wan; Shaman, Jeffrey

    2017-03-01

    Prediction of the growth and decline of infectious disease incidence has advanced considerably in recent years. As these forecasts improve, their public health utility should increase, particularly as interventions are developed that make explicit use of forecast information. It is the task of the research community to increase the content and improve the accuracy of these infectious disease predictions. Presently, operational real-time forecasts of total influenza incidence are produced at the municipal and state level in the United States. These forecasts are generated using ensemble simulations depicting local influenza transmission dynamics, which have been optimized prior to forecast with observations of influenza incidence and data assimilation methods. Here, we explore whether forecasts targeted to predict influenza by type and subtype during 2003-2015 in the United States were more or less accurate than forecasts targeted to predict total influenza incidence. We found that forecasts separated by type/subtype generally produced more accurate predictions and, when summed, produced more accurate predictions of total influenza incidence. These findings indicate that monitoring influenza by type and subtype not only provides more detailed observational content but supports more accurate forecasting. More accurate forecasting can help officials better respond to and plan for current and future influenza activity. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  19. Assessment of reservoir system variable forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kistenmacher, Martin; Georgakakos, Aris P.

    2015-05-01

    Forecast ensembles are a convenient means to model water resources uncertainties and to inform planning and management processes. For multipurpose reservoir systems, forecast types include (i) forecasts of upcoming inflows and (ii) forecasts of system variables and outputs such as reservoir levels, releases, flood damage risks, hydropower production, water supply withdrawals, water quality conditions, navigation opportunities, and environmental flows, among others. Forecasts of system variables and outputs are conditional on forecasted inflows as well as on specific management policies and can provide useful information for decision-making processes. Unlike inflow forecasts (in ensemble or other forms), which have been the subject of many previous studies, reservoir system variable and output forecasts are not formally assessed in water resources management theory or practice. This article addresses this gap and develops methods to rectify potential reservoir system forecast inconsistencies and improve the quality of management-relevant information provided to stakeholders and managers. The overarching conclusion is that system variable and output forecast consistency is critical for robust reservoir management and needs to be routinely assessed for any management model used to inform planning and management processes. The above are demonstrated through an application from the Sacramento-American-San Joaquin reservoir system in northern California.

  20. Box codes of lengths 48 and 72

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solomon, G.; Jin, Y.

    1993-01-01

    A self-dual code length 48, dimension 24, with Hamming distance essentially equal to 12 is constructed here. There are only six code words of weight eight. All the other code words have weights that are multiples of four and have a minimum weight equal to 12. This code may be encoded systematically and arises from a strict binary representation of the (8,4;5) Reed-Solomon (RS) code over GF (64). The code may be considered as six interrelated (8,7;2) codes. The Mattson-Solomon representation of the cyclic decomposition of these codes and their parity sums are used to detect an odd number of errors in any of the six codes. These may then be used in a correction algorithm for hard or soft decision decoding. A (72,36;15) box code was constructed from a (63,35;8) cyclic code. The theoretical justification is presented herein. A second (72,36;15) code is constructed from an inner (63,27;16) Bose Chaudhuri Hocquenghem (BCH) code and expanded to length 72 using box code algorithms for extension. This code was simulated and verified to have a minimum distance of 15 with even weight words congruent to zero modulo four. The decoding for hard and soft decision is still more complex than the first code constructed above. Finally, an (8,4;5) RS code over GF (512) in the binary representation of the (72,36;15) box code gives rise to a (72,36;16*) code with nine words of weight eight, and all the rest have weights greater than or equal to 16.

  1. Forecasting incidence of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in China using ARIMA model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Qiyong; Liu, Xiaodong; Jiang, Baofa; Yang, Weizhong

    2011-08-15

    China is a country that is most seriously affected by hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) with 90% of HFRS cases reported globally. At present, HFRS is getting worse with increasing cases and natural foci in China. Therefore, there is an urgent need for monitoring and predicting HFRS incidence to make the control of HFRS more effective. In this study, we applied a stochastic autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model with the objective of monitoring and short-term forecasting HFRS incidence in China. Chinese HFRS data from 1975 to 2008 were used to fit ARIMA model. Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and Ljung-Box test were used to evaluate the constructed models. Subsequently, the fitted ARIMA model was applied to obtain the fitted HFRS incidence from 1978 to 2008 and contrast with corresponding observed values. To assess the validity of the proposed model, the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) between the observed and fitted HFRS incidence (1978-2008) was calculated. Finally, the fitted ARIMA model was used to forecast the incidence of HFRS of the years 2009 to 2011. All analyses were performed using SAS9.1 with a significant level of p model showed non-significant autocorrelations in the residuals of the model (Ljung-Box Q statistic = 5.95,P = 0.3113). The fitted values made by ARIMA (0,3,1) model for years 1978-2008 closely followed the observed values for the same years, with a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 12.20%. The forecast values from 2009 to 2011 were 0.69, 0.86, and 1.21per 100,000 population, respectively. ARIMA models applied to historical HFRS incidence data are an important tool for HFRS surveillance in China. This study shows that accurate forecasting of the HFRS incidence is possible using an ARIMA model. If predicted values from this study are accurate, China can expect a rise in HFRS incidence.

  2. Can the box plot be improved?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chamnein Choonpradub

    2005-05-01

    Full Text Available Invented by Spear in 1952 and popularized by Tukey in 1977, the box plot is widely used for displaying and comparing samples of continuous observations. Despite its popularity, it is less effective for showing shape behaviour of distributions, particularly bimodality. Using robust estimators of data skewness and kurtosis to classify the distribution into categories, we suggest a simple enhancement for indicating bimodality, central peakedness, and skewness. We also suggest a new graphical method for displaying confidence intervals when comparing several samples of continuous data.

  3. Smart Distribution Boxes, Complete Energy Management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Platise, Uros

    2010-09-15

    Present households demand side management implementations are turning conventional appliances into smart ones to support auto demand (AutoDR) response function. Present concept features a direct link between the power meters and appliances. In this paper new concept and example of implementation of a so-called Smart Distribution Box (SmartDB) is represented for complete energy and power management. SmartDBs, as an intermediate layer, are extending smart grid power meter functionality to support AutoDR with fast and guaranteed response times, distributed power sources, and besides provide full control over energy management and extra safety functions to the consumers.

  4. Keller-box method and its application

    CERN Document Server

    Prasad, Kerehalli V

    2014-01-01

    Most of the problems arising in science and engineering are nonlinear. They are inherently difficult to solve. Traditional analytical approximations are valid only for weakly nonlinear problems, and often break down for problems with strong nonlinearity. This book presents the current theoretical developments and applications of Keller-Box method to nonlinear problems. The first half of the bookaddresses basic concepts to understand the theoretical framework for the method. In the second half of the book, the authorsgive a number of examples of coupled nonlinear problems that have been solved

  5. Do Biomimetic Students Think Outside the Box?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lenau, Torben Anker

    2017-01-01

    Biomimetics is a recognized method in ideation for getting access to new and – for the designer – novel knowledge, which hopefully will result in more novel and useful products. But do designers actually find new knowledge, i.e. think outside the box or do they stick to well-known biological...... phenomena? If they concentrate on animals and plants, which they beforehand have knowledge about, it could be expected that solutions will remind of what they would have found without using biomimetics. To investigate this question, the empirical results from a university course in biomimetics have been...

  6. LHC Crab Cavity Coupler Test Boxes

    CERN Document Server

    Mitchell, James; Burt, Graeme; Calaga, Rama; Macpherson, Alick; Montesinos, Eric; Silva, Subashini; Tutte, Adam; Xiao, Binping

    2016-01-01

    The LHC double quarter wave (DQW) crab cavities have two different types of Higher Order Mode (HOM) couplers in addition to a fundamental power coupler (FPC). The FPC requires conditioning, so to achieve this we have designed a radio-frequency (RF) quarter wave resonator to provide high transmission between two opposing FPCs. For the HOM couplers we must ensure that the stop-band filter is positioned at the cavity frequency and that peak transmission occurs at the same frequencies as the strongest HOMs. We have designed two test boxes which preserve the cavity spectral response in order to test the couplers.

  7. A (72, 36; 15) box code

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solomon, G.

    1993-01-01

    A (72,36;15) box code is constructed as a 9 x 8 matrix whose columns add to form an extended BCH-Hamming (8,4;4) code and whose rows sum to odd or even parity. The newly constructed code, due to its matrix form, is easily decodable for all seven-error and many eight-error patterns. The code comes from a slight modification in the parity (eighth) dimension of the Reed-Solomon (8,4;5) code over GF(512). Error correction uses the row sum parity information to detect errors, which then become erasures in a Reed-Solomon correction algorithm.

  8. Teaching Outside the Box: ARL Librarians' Integration of the "One- Box" into Student Instruction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kulp, Christina; McCain, Cheryl; Scrivener, Laurie

    2014-01-01

    This article reports the results of a survey that targeted reference and instruction librarians who work at libraries that are members of the Asso- ciation of Research Libraries (ARL). Respondents were asked to indicate whether or not they teach students to use the one-box tool, and why or why not. Based on the responses of the 352 librarians who…

  9. A methodology for Electric Power Load Forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eisa Almeshaiei

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Electricity demand forecasting is a central and integral process for planning periodical operations and facility expansion in the electricity sector. Demand pattern is almost very complex due to the deregulation of energy markets. Therefore, finding an appropriate forecasting model for a specific electricity network is not an easy task. Although many forecasting methods were developed, none can be generalized for all demand patterns. Therefore, this paper presents a pragmatic methodology that can be used as a guide to construct Electric Power Load Forecasting models. This methodology is mainly based on decomposition and segmentation of the load time series. Several statistical analyses are involved to study the load features and forecasting precision such as moving average and probability plots of load noise. Real daily load data from Kuwaiti electric network are used as a case study. Some results are reported to guide forecasting future needs of this network.

  10. Introduction to time series analysis and forecasting

    CERN Document Server

    Montgomery, Douglas C; Kulahci, Murat

    2008-01-01

    An accessible introduction to the most current thinking in and practicality of forecasting techniques in the context of time-oriented data. Analyzing time-oriented data and forecasting are among the most important problems that analysts face across many fields, ranging from finance and economics to production operations and the natural sciences. As a result, there is a widespread need for large groups of people in a variety of fields to understand the basic concepts of time series analysis and forecasting. Introduction to Time Series Analysis and Forecasting presents the time series analysis branch of applied statistics as the underlying methodology for developing practical forecasts, and it also bridges the gap between theory and practice by equipping readers with the tools needed to analyze time-oriented data and construct useful, short- to medium-term, statistically based forecasts.

  11. The Design of the Orthogonal Box Cavity

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moretti, Alfred; /Fermilab

    2010-09-15

    The muon collider and/or the neutrino factory require large accelerating electric field gradients immersed in large (3 to 6 T) solenoidal magnetic fields for ionization cooling of muon beams. Our original vacuum breakdown study demonstrated a loss of achievable peak accelerating gradient in solenoidal magnetic fields by a factor 2 or greater. The Muon Collaboration has developed a theory of a method to suppress high electric field breakdown in vacuum cavities needed for a Muon collider or neutrino factory. It has been shown in our studies and by others that high gradient electric field emitted electrons (dark current) are the primary cause of breakdown. A DC magnetic field orthogonal to the RF electric accelerating field prevents dark current high field emitted electrons from traveling across the accelerating gap and then will prevent breakdown. We have decided to test this theory by building a special cavity in the shape of vacuum box. Figure 1 is a simplified view of the cavity design. The design is based on an 805 MHz WR975 waveguide cavity resonating in the TE{sub 101} mode. For the TE{sub 101} mode the resonant frequency f{sub 0} is given by the relationship f{sub 0} = c[(I/a){sup 2} + (m/b){sup 2} + (n/d){sup 2}]{sup 0.5}/2 where a and d are the lengths of the base sides and b is the height of the box in MKS units and c is the velocity of light.

  12. Research of intelligent bus coin box

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xin, Shihao

    2017-03-01

    In the energy-saving emission reduction of the social context, in response to low-carbon travel, buses become the majority of people choose. We have designed this sorting machine for the present situation that the bus company has received a large amount of mixed zero coins and employed a large amount of manpower to sort out and lower the efficiency. Its function is to separate the coins and notes mixed, and the coins sort storage, the display shows the value of the received coins, so that the whole mechanized inventory classification, reduce the cost of clearing up and improve the efficiency of zero cash recycling, use Simple mechanical principles for classification, to be efficient, accurate and practical. Really meet the current city bus companies, commerce and banking and other industries in order to zero notes, zero coins in the actual demand. The size and specification of this machine are designed according to the size of the bus coin box. It is suitable for almost all buses. It can be installed in the coin box directly, real-time sorting and real-time counting. The difficulty of clearing change.

  13. Hairy black holes in a box

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Basu, Pallab [International Center for Theoretical Sciences,IISc Campus, Bangalore 560012 (India); Krishnan, Chethan; Subramanian, P.N. Bala [Center for High Energy Physics, Indian Institute of Science,Bangalore 560012 (India)

    2016-11-08

    We do a systematic study of the phases of gravity coupled to an electromagnetic field and charged scalar in flat space, with box boundary conditions. The scalar-less box has previously been investigated by Braden, Brown, Whiting and York (and others) before AdS/CFT and we elaborate and extend their results in a language more familiar from holography. The phase diagram of the system is analogous to that of AdS black holes, but we emphasize the differences and explain their origin. Once the scalar is added, we show that the system admits both boson stars as well as hairy black holes as solutions, providing yet another way to evade flat space no-hair theorems. Furthermore both these solutions can exist as stable phases in regions of the phase diagram. The final picture of the phases that emerges is strikingly similar to that found recently for holographic superconductors in global AdS, http://arxiv.org/abs/1602.07211. Our construction lays bare certain previously unnoticed subtleties associated to the definition quasi-local charges for gravitating scalar fields in finite regions.

  14. Flexible bulb large storage box hydrogen maser

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reinhardt, V.

    1973-01-01

    The principal limitation on the accuracy of the hydrogen maser as a primary frequency standard has been the irreproducibility of the frequency shift caused by collisions of the radiating atoms with the walls of the vessel containing them. The flexible bulb-large storage box hydrogen maser allows correction for this wall shift within a single device, sidestepping the reproducibility problem, and reducing the frequency error from the wall shift to the level imposed by the device's stability. The principles of the device are discussed including the flexible bulb technique and the complications caused by a multiple region storage bulb. The stability of the device is discussed including a comparison with an ordinary hydrogen maser. Data is presented from a working flexible bulb-large storage box hydrogen maser demonstrating the feasibility of the device and showing some of its operating characteristics. The flexibility of the device is demonstrated by showing how the device's added degrees of freedom allow measurement of parameters unmeasurable in an ordinary hydrogen maser.

  15. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) NCEP-Global Forecast System (GFS) Precipitation Forecast Product

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Global Forecast System (GFS) forecast precipitation data at 37.5km resolution is created at the NOAA Climate Prediction Center for the purpose of near real-time...

  16. Skillful seasonal forecasts of Arctic sea ice retreat and advance dates in a dynamical forecast system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sigmond, M.; Reader, M. C.; Flato, G. M.; Merryfield, W. J.; Tivy, A.

    2016-12-01

    The need for skillful seasonal forecasts of Arctic sea ice is rapidly increasing. Technology to perform such forecasts with coupled atmosphere-ocean-sea ice systems has only recently become available, with previous skill evaluations mainly limited to area-integrated quantities. Here we show, based on a large set of retrospective ensemble model forecasts, that a dynamical forecast system produces skillful seasonal forecasts of local sea ice retreat and advance dates - variables that are of great interest to a wide range of end users. Advance dates can generally be skillfully predicted at longer lead times ( 5 months on average) than retreat dates ( 3 months). The skill of retreat date forecasts mainly stems from persistence of initial sea ice anomalies, whereas advance date forecasts benefit from longer time scale and more predictable variability in ocean temperatures. These results suggest that further investments in the development of dynamical seasonal forecast systems may result in significant socioeconomic benefits.

  17. 24-Hour Forecast of Air Temperatures from the National Weather Service's National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) contains a seamless mosaic of the National Weather Service's (NWS) digital forecasts of air temperature. In...

  18. A Group Action Method for Construction of Strong Substitution Box

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jamal, Sajjad Shaukat; Shah, Tariq; Attaullah, Atta

    2017-06-01

    In this paper, the method to develop cryptographically strong substitution box is presented which can be used in multimedia security and data hiding techniques. The algorithm of construction depends on the action of a projective general linear group over the set of units of the finite commutative ring. The strength of substitution box and ability to create confusion is assessed with different available analyses. Moreover, the ability of resistance against malicious attacks is also evaluated. The substitution box is examined by bit independent criterion, strict avalanche criterion, nonlinearity test, linear approximation probability test and differential approximation probability test. This substitution box is equated with well-recognized substitution boxes such as AES, Gray, APA, S8, prime of residue, Xyi and Skipjack. The comparison shows encouraging results about the strength of the proposed box. The majority logic criterion is also calculated to analyze the strength and its practical implementation.

  19. Visual pigments of the box jellyfish species Chiropsella bronzie

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    O*Connor, Megan; Garm, Anders Lydik; Marshall, Justin

    2010-01-01

    Box jellyfish (Cubomedusae) possess a unique visual system comprising 24 eyes of four morphological types. Moreover, box jellyfish display several visually guided behaviours, including obstacle avoidance and light-shaft attractance. It is largely unknown what kind of visual information box...... jellyfish use for carrying out these behaviours. Brightness contrast is almost certainly involved, but it is also possible that box jellyfish extract colour information from their surroundings. The possible presence of colour vision in box jellyfish has previously been investigated using behavioural......, electrophysiological and immunohistochemical methods. However, the results from these studies are to some degree conflicting and inconclusive. Here, we present results from an investigation into the visual system of the box jellyfish Chiropsella bronzie, using microspectrophotometry and immunohistochemistry. Our...

  20. Novel methodology for pharmaceutical expenditure forecast

    OpenAIRE

    Vataire, Anne-Lise; Cetinsoy, Laurent; Aballéa, Samuel; Rémuzat, Cécile; Urbinati, Duccio; Kornfeld, Åsa; Mzoughi, Olfa; Toumi, Mondher

    2014-01-01

    Background and objective: The value appreciation of new drugs across countries today features a disruption that is making the historical data that are used for forecasting pharmaceutical expenditure poorly reliable. Forecasting methods rarely addressed uncertainty. The objective of this project was to propose a methodology to perform pharmaceutical expenditure forecasting that integrates expected policy changes and uncertainty (developed for the European Commission as the ‘EU Pharmaceutical e...

  1. Forecasting with Excel: Suggestions for Managers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Scott Nadler

    2007-05-01

    Full Text Available This article provides readers and more especially business managers with an overview of moving average, exponential smoothing, trend analysis, and linear regression approaches to forecasting. The authors then provide specific examples for each approach and the Excel formulas necessary to develop effective forecasts. This is an important contribution to the literature because it demonstrates that businesses with limited resources can develop reliable and accurate forecasts in a timely and cost effective manner using readily available software.

  2. Deep Cropping via Attention Box Prediction and Aesthetics Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Wang, Wenguan; Shen, Jianbing

    2017-01-01

    We model the photo cropping problem as a cascade of attention box regression and aesthetic quality classification, based on deep learning. A neural network is designed that has two branches for predicting attention bounding box and analyzing aesthetics, respectively. The predicted attention box is treated as an initial crop window where a set of cropping candidates are generated around it, without missing important information. Then, aesthetics assessment is employed to select the final crop ...

  3. Prospective Assessment of Inpatient Boxed Warning Prescriber Adherence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kloet, Megan A; Lohr, Brian R; Smithburger, Pamela L; Seybert, Amy L; Kane-Gill, Sandra L

    2017-03-01

    To evaluate medication boxed warning nonadherence in the inpatient setting. This was a prospective cohort quality improvement project approved by our institution's Total Quality Council. General medicine and ICU patients 18 years and older were included if they were cared for by a prescriber-led multidisciplinary team that included a pharmacist. Patients were evaluated for medication orders with an actionable boxed warning; if boxed warning nonadherence occurred, the physician's reason was determined. Patients with boxed warning nonadherence were monitored for adverse drug reactions until discharge. A total of 393 patients (224 general medicine and 169 ICU) were evaluated for nonadherence to 149 actionable boxed warnings. There were 293 drugs (175 general medicine and 118 ICU) with boxed warnings prescribed, and more than 50% of these were medications restarted from home. A total of 23 boxed warning nonadherences occurred in general medicine patients, and NSAIDs accounted for 81% of these events. ICU patients experienced 11 boxed warning nonadherences, with nearly 54% from anti-infectives and immunosuppressants. Antipsychotics were the most commonly ordered boxed warning medication class in ICU patients. Reasons for nonadherence included knowledge deficit and an acceptable risk-to-benefit ratio. Two adverse drug reactions occurred from boxed warning nonadherences, both because of a drug-drug interaction. Boxed warning nonadherence is a concern in the inpatient setting, specifically with NSAID use in general medicine patients and antipsychotic use in ICU patients. More than half of boxed warning nonadherence occurred in medications restarted from home, which emphasizes the need for medication evaluation during transitions of care.

  4. Grey-box modelling of pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tornøe, Christoffer Wenzel; Jacobsen, Judith L; Pedersen, Oluf

    2004-01-01

    Grey-box pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic (PK/PD) modelling is presented as a promising way of modelling PK/PD systems. The concept behind grey-box modelling is based on combining physiological knowledge along with information from data in the estimation of model parameters. Grey-box modelling con...... in order to describe the complicated in vivo system of insulin and glucose following an IVGTT....

  5. Online short-term solar power forecasting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bacher, Peder; Madsen, Henrik; Nielsen, Henrik Aalborg

    2009-01-01

    . Then forecasts of the normalized solar power are calculated using adaptive linear time series models. Both autoregressive (AR) and AR with exogenous input (ARX) models are evaluated, where the latter takes numerical weather predictions (NWPs) as input. The results indicate that for forecasts up to two hours......This paper describes a new approach to online forecasting of power production from PV systems. The method is suited to online forecasting in many applications and in this paper it is used to predict hourly values of solar power for horizons of up to 36 hours. The data used is fifteen...

  6. Forecasting effects of global warming on biodiversity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Botkin, D.B.; Saxe, H.; Araújo, M.B.

    2007-01-01

    The demand for accurate forecasting of the effects of global warming on biodiversity is growing, but current methods for forecasting have limitations. In this article, we compare and discuss the different uses of four forecasting methods: (1) models that consider species individually, (2) niche...... and theoretical ecological results suggest that many species could be at risk from global warming, during the recent ice ages surprisingly few species became extinct. The potential resolution of this conundrum gives insights into the requirements for more accurate and reliable forecasting. Our eight suggestions...

  7. FORECASTING TOURIST ARRIVALS TO LANGKAWI ISLAND MALAYSIA

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Kamarul Ariffin MANSOR; Wan Irham ISHAK

    2015-01-01

    .... Therefore, forecasting tourist arrivals with high accuracy becomes important since it may ensure the development and the readiness of all tourism related industries such as hotels, transportation...

  8. Online Short-term Solar Power Forecasting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bacher, Peder; Madsen, Henrik; Nielsen, Henrik Aalborg

    This poster presents two approaches to online forecasting of power production from PV systems. The methods are suited for online forecasting in many applications and here they are used to predict hourly values of solar power for horizons up to 32 hours.......This poster presents two approaches to online forecasting of power production from PV systems. The methods are suited for online forecasting in many applications and here they are used to predict hourly values of solar power for horizons up to 32 hours....

  9. Forecasting interest rates with shifting endpoints

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Van Dijk, Dick; Koopman, Siem Jan; Wel, Michel van der

    2014-01-01

    We consider forecasting the term structure of interest rates with the assumption that factors driving the yield curve are stationary around a slowly time-varying mean or ‘shifting endpoint’. The shifting endpoints are captured using either (i) time series methods (exponential smoothing) or (ii......) long-range survey forecasts of either interest rates or inflation and output growth, or (iii) exponentially smoothed realizations of these macro variables. Allowing for shifting endpoints in yield curve factors provides substantial and significant gains in out-of-sample predictive accuracy, relative...... to stationary and random walk benchmarks. Forecast improvements are largest for long-maturity interest rates and for long-horizon forecasts....

  10. Solar Forecasting in a Challenging Insular Context

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Philippe Lauret

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper aims at assessing the accuracy of different solar forecasting methods in the case of an insular context. Two sites of La Réunion Island, Le Tampon and Saint-Pierre, are chosen to do the benchmarking exercise. Réunion Island is a tropical island with a complex orography where cloud processes are mainly governed by local dynamics. As a consequence, Réunion Island exhibits numerous micro-climates. The two aforementioned sites are quite representative of the challenging character of solar forecasting in the case of a tropical island with complex orography. Hence, although distant from only 10 km, these two sites exhibit very different sky conditions. This work focuses on day-ahead and intra-day solar forecasting. Day-ahead solar forecasts are provided by the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF. This organization maintains and runs the Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP model named Integrated Forecast System (IFS. In this work, post-processing techniques are applied to refine the output of the IFS model for day-ahead forecasting. Statistical models like a recursive linear model or a nonlinear model such as an artificial neural network are used to produce the intra-day solar forecasts. It is shown that a combination of the IFS model and the neural network model further improves the accuracy of the forecasts.

  11. Visualization of ocean forecast in BYTHOS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhuk, E.; Zodiatis, G.; Nikolaidis, A.; Stylianou, S.; Karaolia, A.

    2016-08-01

    The Cyprus Oceanography Center has been constantly searching for new ideas for developing and implementing innovative methods and new developments concerning the use of Information Systems in Oceanography, to suit both the Center's monitoring and forecasting products. Within the frame of this scope two major online managing and visualizing data systems have been developed and utilized, those of CYCOFOS and BYTHOS. The Cyprus Coastal Ocean Forecasting and Observing System - CYCOFOS provides a variety of operational predictions such as ultra high, high and medium resolution ocean forecasts in the Levantine Basin, offshore and coastal sea state forecasts in the Mediterranean and Black Sea, tide forecasting in the Mediterranean, ocean remote sensing in the Eastern Mediterranean and coastal and offshore monitoring. As a rich internet application, BYTHOS enables scientists to search, visualize and download oceanographic data online and in real time. The recent improving of BYTHOS system is the extension with access and visualization of CYCOFOS data and overlay forecast fields and observing data. The CYCOFOS data are stored at OPENDAP Server in netCDF format. To search, process and visualize it the php and python scripts were developed. Data visualization is achieved through Mapserver. The BYTHOS forecast access interface allows to search necessary forecasting field by recognizing type, parameter, region, level and time. Also it provides opportunity to overlay different forecast and observing data that can be used for complex analyze of sea basin aspects.

  12. Broadband Traffic Forecasting in the Transport Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valentina Radojičić

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes a modification of traffic forecast model generated by residential and small business (SOHO, Small Office Home Office users. The model includes forecasted values of different relevant factors and competition on broadband market. It allows forecasting the number of users for various broadband technologies and interaction impact of long-standing technologies as well as the impact of the new technology entrant on the market. All the necessary parameters are evaluated for the Serbian broadband market. The long-term forecasted results of broadband traffic are given. The analyses and evaluations performed are important inputs for the transport network resources planning.

  13. An Improved Method of Manufacturing Corrugated Boxes: Lateral Corrugator

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Frank C. Murray Ph.D.; , Roman Popil Ph.D.; Michael Shaepe (formerly with IPST, now at Cargill. Inc)

    2008-12-18

    Paper physicists have known that a corrugated box constructed from outer liner sheets having a predominant fiber orientation aligned with the corrugating flute direction would have higher stiffness and crush resistance (per unit of fiber weight) than the conventional box construction. Such increased performance per unit of fiber weight could result in fiber reduction and energy savings for boxes having equivalent performance specifications. The goal of this project was to develop and demonstrate a commercially viable lateral corrugating process. This included designing and building a pilot lateral corrugator, testing and evaluating pilot machine made boxes, and developing a strategy for commercialization.

  14. Judgmental Forecasting of Operational Capabilities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hallin, Carina Antonia; Tveterås, Sigbjørn; Andersen, Torben Juul

    This paper explores a new judgmental forecasting indicator, the Employee Sensed Operational Capabilities (ESOC). The purpose of the ESOC is to establish a practical prediction tool that can provide early signals about changes in financial performance by gauging frontline employees’ sensing...... of changes in the firm’s operational capabilities. We present the first stage of the development of ESOC by applying a formative measurement approach to test the index in relation to financial performance and against an organizational commitment scale. We use distributed lag models to test whether the ESOC...

  15. Forecasting Companies’ Future Economic Development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jaroslav Dvořáček

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available The subject of this paper is financial forecasting. The objective is to predict whether a company can continue in successful operationor is jeopardised by default. The paper takes into account an application of discriminate analysis concerning data files of 85 non-bankrupt,and 85 bankrupt firms in the Czech Republic, at which point mining companies are in minority, industrial enterprises predominate. 5-8 inputvariables in the form of ratios and indexes have been used for the analysis. The non-bankrupt vis-à-vis bankrupt classification accuracyis defined.

  16. Automated Aircraft Icing Forecast Technique.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1984-05-31

    an Air Weather Service detachment forecaster. Many thanks are due to Lt Col Robert G. Feddes who alerted me to this opportunity to automate and test...Safety Board, Washington, DC, Report No. NTSB-SR-81-1, 16 pp. Feddes, Robert G., 1974: A Synoptic-Scale Model for Simulating Condensed Atmospheric...AFOSR/TR-80/1279, 9pp. Hobbs, P. V., T. J. Matejka, P. H. Herzegh, J. D. Locatelli, and R. A. Houze , Jr., 1980b: The Mesoscale and Microscale

  17. Improving Precipitation Forecast for Canadian Catchments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jha, S. K.; Shrestha, D. L.; Walford, C.; Leong, D. N. S.; Friesenhan, E.; Campbell, D.; Rasmussen, P. F.

    2016-12-01

    In Canada, floods occur frequently along large river systems, causing devastation to lives and infrastructure. Flooding in Canada is often caused by heavy rainfall during the snowmelt period. The flood forecast centres are responsible for providing advanced flood warnings and rely heavily on forecasted precipitation from numerical weather prediction (NWP) model outputs produced by Environment Canada and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The uncertainties in NWP model output are enhanced by physiography and orographic effects over diverse landscapes, particularly in the western catchments of Canada. Therefore, post-processing of NWP model output is necessary to obtain better forecasts of rainfall amount, location, timing, and intensity; and to reliably quantify forecast uncertainty. The Rainfall Post Processing (RPP) approach (Robertson et al., 2013) has been successfully applied recently to remove rainfall forecast bias and quantify forecast uncertainty from NWP models in Australian catchments (Shrestha et al., 2015). In principle, the RPP method can be applied to other regions (e.g. cold regions) but has not been tested yet. In this study we will evaluate the performance of the RPP for improving the precipitation forecast in southern catchments in Alberta and British Columbia. The RPP relates raw quantitative precipitation forecasts and observed precipitation using a Bayesian joint probability (BJP) modeling approach, followed by the Schaake shuffle. Precipitation forecasts were analysed from two NWP models, Global Ensemble Forecasting System and Global Deterministic Prediction System. Observed data was collected from the provincial river forecast centres. The study period from Jan 2012 to Dec 2015 covered major flood events in Calgary, Alberta, and floods in coastal watersheds in British Columbia. Rain-gauge observations and forecast grid points were interpolated to obtain an aerial average precipitation in subareas to force the hydrological

  18. Improved low visibility forecasts at Amsterdam Airport

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wijngaard, J.; Vogelezang, D.; Maat, N.; van Bruggen, H.

    2009-09-01

    Accurate, reliable and unambiguous information concerning the actual and expected (low) visibility conditions at Amsterdam Airport Schiphol is very important for the available operational flow capacity. Therefore visibility forecast errors can have a negative impact on safety and operational expenses. KNMI has performed an update of the visibility forecast system in close collaboration with the main users of the forecasts (Air Traffic Control, the airport authorities and KLM airlines). This automatic forecasting system consists of a Numerical Weather Prediction Model (Hirlam) with a statistical post processing module on top of it. Output of both components is supplied to a human forecaster who issues a special probabilistic forecast bulletin. This bulletin is tailored to the specific requirements of the airport community. The improvements made to the forecast system are twofold: 1) In addition to the Meteorological Optical Range (MOR) values, RVR (Runway Visual Range) is forecasted. Since RVR depends on both MOR and the local Background Luminance, a (deterministic) statistical forecast for the latter has been developed. 2) Another improvement was achieved by calculating joint probabilities for specific combinations of visibility and cloud base height for thresholds which have direct impact on the flow capacity at the airport. The development of this new visibility forecast will be presented briefly. Also a few verification results will be shown to demonstrate the improvements made. Finally, the importance of explaining the user the use of the forecast information, in relation to their decision making process, will be discussed. For that reason, a simple guideline model to make a cost-optimal choice will be introduced.

  19. Modeled Forecasts of Dengue Fever in San Juan, Puerto Rico Using NASA Satellite Enhanced Weather Forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morin, C.; Quattrochi, D. A.; Zavodsky, B.; Case, J.

    2015-12-01

    Dengue fever (DF) is an important mosquito transmitted disease that is strongly influenced by meteorological and environmental conditions. Recent research has focused on forecasting DF case numbers based on meteorological data. However, these forecasting tools have generally relied on empirical models that require long DF time series to train. Additionally, their accuracy has been tested retrospectively, using past meteorological data. Consequently, the operational utility of the forecasts are still in question because the error associated with weather and climate forecasts are not reflected in the results. Using up-to-date weekly dengue case numbers for model parameterization and weather forecast data as meteorological input, we produced weekly forecasts of DF cases in San Juan, Puerto Rico. Each week, the past weeks' case counts were used to re-parameterize a process-based DF model driven with updated weather forecast data to generate forecasts of DF case numbers. Real-time weather forecast data was produced using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) numerical weather prediction (NWP) system enhanced using additional high-resolution NASA satellite data. This methodology was conducted in a weekly iterative process with each DF forecast being evaluated using county-level DF cases reported by the Puerto Rico Department of Health. The one week DF forecasts were accurate especially considering the two sources of model error. First, weather forecasts were sometimes inaccurate and generally produced lower than observed temperatures. Second, the DF model was often overly influenced by the previous weeks DF case numbers, though this phenomenon could be lessened by increasing the number of simulations included in the forecast. Although these results are promising, we would like to develop a methodology to produce longer range forecasts so that public health workers can better prepare for dengue epidemics.

  20. Design Research: Six Views in a Box

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    2011-01-01

    This book is a report from a class on design research at the Danish Design School. Ten students had ten weeks to conduct design research based on approaches, methods and techniques from co-design focusing on the Alzheimer’s disease as experienced by people with Alzheimer’s, their relatives...... and close relations, and professional caretakers. Alzheimer's destroys brain cells, causing memory loss and problems with thinking and behavior severe enough to affect work, lifelong hobbies and social life. As Alzheimer’s is a fatal disease that affects many people, there is a strong interest in finding...... professional organizations in a user-driven approach to explore and learn what it means to identify and admit that a person has Alzheimer’s. Apart from making contributions to the common box, the students have written reports in which they reflect on their work both in relation to the design research process...

  1. Evaluation of official tropical cyclone track forecast over north Indian ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    itoring forecast improvements resulting from new algorithms, techniques and observing systems;. • Evaluation of ... available forecast techniques, perhaps including stratification into different synoptic, latitudinal, or seasonal ... mentioned track forecast error measures represents an important factor in the overall decision pro-.

  2. Forecasting Hurricane Tracks Using a Complex Adaptive System

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Lear, Matthew R

    2005-01-01

    Forecast hurricane tracks using a multi-model ensemble that consists of linearly combining the individual model forecasts have greatly reduced the average forecast errors when compared to individual...

  3. A Complex Adaptive System Approach to Forecasting Hurricane Tracks

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Lear, Matthew R

    2005-01-01

    Forecast hurricane tracks using a multi-model ensemble that consists of linearly combining the individual model forecasts have greatly reduced the average forecast errors when compared to individual...

  4. Crop Insurance Inaccurate FCIC Price Forecasts Increase Program Costs

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    1991-01-01

    ...) how FCIC can improve its forecast accuracy. We found that FCIC's corn, wheat, and soybeans price forecasts exhibit large bias errors that exceed those of other available alternative forecasts and that FCIC would have spent...

  5. Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) [2.5 Deg.

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) is a weather forecast model made up of 21 separate forecasts, or ensemble members. The National Centers for Environmental...

  6. Box ladders in a noninteger dimension

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gonzalez, I.; Kondrashuk, I. N.

    2013-11-01

    We construct a family of triangle-ladder diagrams that can be calculated using the Belokurov-Usyukina loop reduction technique in d= 4-2ɛ dimensions. The main idea of the approach we propose is to generalize this loop reduction technique existing in d= 4 dimensions. We derive a recurrence relation between the result for an L-loop triangle-ladder diagram of this family and the result for an (L- 1)-loop triangleladder diagram of the same family. Because the proposed method combines analytic and dimensional regularizations, we must remove the analytic regularization at the end of the calculation by taking the double uniform limit in which the parameters of the analytic regularization vanish. In the position space, we obtain a diagram in the left-hand side of the recurrence relations in which the rung indices are 1 and all other indices are 1 - ɛ in this limit. Fourier transforms of diagrams of this type give momentum space diagrams with rung indices 1 - ɛ and all other indices 1. By a conformal transformation of the dual space image of this momentum space representation, we relate such a family of triangle-ladder momentum diagrams to a family of box-ladder momentum diagrams with rung indices 1 - ɛ and all other indices 1. Because any diagram from this family is reducible to a one-loop diagram, the proposed generalization of the Belokurov-Usyukina loop reduction technique to a noninteger number of dimensions allows calculating this family of box-ladder diagrams in the momentum space explicitly in terms of Appell's hypergeometric function F 4 without expanding in powers of the parameter ɛ in an arbitrary kinematic region in the momentum space.

  7. Chironex fleckeri (Box Jellyfish) Venom Proteins

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brinkman, Diane L.; Konstantakopoulos, Nicki; McInerney, Bernie V.; Mulvenna, Jason; Seymour, Jamie E.; Isbister, Geoffrey K.; Hodgson, Wayne C.

    2014-01-01

    The box jellyfish Chironex fleckeri produces extremely potent and rapid-acting venom that is harmful to humans and lethal to prey. Here, we describe the characterization of two C. fleckeri venom proteins, CfTX-A (∼40 kDa) and CfTX-B (∼42 kDa), which were isolated from C. fleckeri venom using size exclusion chromatography and cation exchange chromatography. Full-length cDNA sequences encoding CfTX-A and -B and a third putative toxin, CfTX-Bt, were subsequently retrieved from a C. fleckeri tentacle cDNA library. Bioinformatic analyses revealed that the new toxins belong to a small family of potent cnidarian pore-forming toxins that includes two other C. fleckeri toxins, CfTX-1 and CfTX-2. Phylogenetic inferences from amino acid sequences of the toxin family grouped CfTX-A, -B, and -Bt in a separate clade from CfTX-1 and -2, suggesting that the C. fleckeri toxins have diversified structurally and functionally during evolution. Comparative bioactivity assays revealed that CfTX-1/2 (25 μg kg−1) caused profound effects on the cardiovascular system of anesthetized rats, whereas CfTX-A/B elicited only minor effects at the same dose. Conversely, the hemolytic activity of CfTX-A/B (HU50 = 5 ng ml−1) was at least 30 times greater than that of CfTX-1/2. Structural homology between the cubozoan toxins and insecticidal three-domain Cry toxins (δ-endotoxins) suggests that the toxins have a similar pore-forming mechanism of action involving α-helices of the N-terminal domain, whereas structural diversification among toxin members may modulate target specificity. Expansion of the cnidarian toxin family therefore provides new insights into the evolutionary diversification of box jellyfish toxins from a structural and functional perspective. PMID:24403082

  8. Sound radiation characteristics of a box-type structure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ran Lin, Tian; Pan, Jie

    2009-09-01

    The finite element and boundary element methods are employed in this study to investigate the sound radiation characteristics of a box-type structure. It has been shown [T.R. Lin, J. Pan, Vibration characteristics of a box-type structure, Journal of Vibration and Acoustics, Transactions of ASME 131 (2009) 031004-1-031004-9] that modes of natural vibration of a box-type structure can be classified into six groups according to the symmetry properties of the three panel pairs forming the box. In this paper, we demonstrate that such properties also reveal information about sound radiation effectiveness of each group of modes. The changes of radiation efficiencies and directivity patterns with the wavenumber ratio (the ratio between the acoustic and the plate bending wavenumbers) are examined for typical modes from each group. Similar characteristics of modal radiation efficiencies between a box structure and a corresponding simply supported panel are observed. The change of sound radiation patterns as a function of the wavenumber ratio is also illustrated. It is found that the sound radiation directivity of each box mode can be correlated to that of elementary sound sources (monopole, dipole, etc.) at frequencies well below the critical frequency of the plates of the box. The sound radiation pattern on the box surface also closely related to the vibration amplitude distribution of the box structure at frequencies above the critical frequency. In the medium frequency range, the radiated sound field is dominated by the edge vibration pattern of the box. The radiation efficiency of all box modes reaches a peak at frequencies above the critical frequency, and gradually approaches unity at higher frequencies.

  9. New Methodology of ENSO Forecast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feigin, A. M.; Gavrilov, A.; Mukhin, D.; Loskutov, E.; Seleznev, A.

    2016-12-01

    We describe methodology of ENSO forecast based on data-driven construction of evolution operator of underlying climate sub-system. The methodology is composed of two key algorithms: (i) space-distributed data preparation aiming to reduce data dimensionality with minimal loss of information about system's dynamics, and (ii) construction of operator that reproduces evolution of the system in reduced data space. The first algorithm combines several known data preprocessing techniques: decomposition via empirical orthogonal function basis, its spatiotemporal generalization as well as singular value decomposition techniques. The second algorithm supposes construction of evolution operator in the form of random dynamical system realized as nonlinear random mapping; the last is parameterized by artificial neural networks. General Bayesian approach is applied for mutual searching optimal parameters of both algorithms: optimal dimensionality of reduced data space and optimal complexity of the evolution operator. Abilities of suggested methodology will be demonstrated via reproduction and forecast of different ENSO related indexes including comparison of prediction skill of new methodology with power of other existing techniques. This research was supported by the Government of the Russian Federation (Agreement No.14.Z50.31.0033 with the Institute of Applied Physics RAS).

  10. MSSM Forecast for the LHC

    CERN Document Server

    Cabrera, Maria Eugenia; de Austri, Roberto Ruiz

    2009-01-01

    We perform a forecast of the MSSM with universal soft terms (CMSSM) for the LHC, based on an improved Bayesian analysis. We do not incorporate ad hoc measures of the fine-tuning to penalize unnatural possibilities: such penalization arises from the Bayesian analysis itself when the experimental value of $M_Z$ is considered. This allows to scan the whole parameter space, allowing arbitrarily large soft terms. Still the low-energy region is statistically favoured (even before including dark matter or g-2 constraints). Contrary to other studies, the results are almost unaffected by changing the upper limits taken for the soft terms. The results are also remarkable stable when using flat or logarithmic priors, a fact that arises from the larger statistical weight of the low-energy region in both cases. Then we incorporate all the important experimental constrains to the analysis, obtaining a map of the probability density of the MSSM parameter space, i.e. the forecast of the MSSM. Since not all the experimental i...

  11. Phantosmia as a meteorological forecaster

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aiello, S. R.; Hirsch, A. R.

    2013-09-01

    In normosmics, olfactory ability has been found to vary with ambient humidity, barometric pressure, and season. While hallucinated sensations of phantom pain associated with changes in weather have been described, a linkage to chemosensory hallucinations has heretofore not been reported. A 64-year-old white male with Parkinson's disease presents with 5 years of phantosmia of a smoky burnt wood which changed to onion-gas and then to a noxious skunk-onion excrement odor. Absent upon waking it increases over the day and persists for hours. When severe, there appears a phantom taste with the same qualities as the odor. It is exacerbated by factors that manipulate intranasal pressure, such as coughing. When eating or sniffing, the actual flavors replace the phantosmia. Since onset, he noted the intensity and frequency of the phantosmia forecasted the weather. Two to 3 h before a storm, the phantosmia intensifies from a level 0 to a 7-10, which persists through the entire thunderstorm. Twenty years prior, he reported the ability to forecast the weather, based on pain in a torn meniscus, which vanished after surgical repair. Extensive olfactory testing demonstrates underlying hyposmia. Possible mechanisms for such chemosensory-meteorological linkage includes: air pressure induced synesthesia, disinhibition of spontaneous olfactory discharge, exacerbation of ectopic discharge, affect mediated somatic sensory amplification, and misattribution error with expectation and recall bias. This is the first reported case of weather-induced exacerbation of phantosmia. Further investigation of the connection between chemosensory complaints and ambient weather is warranted.

  12. Resources and Long-Range Forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Waldo E.

    1973-01-01

    The author argues that forecasts of quick depletion of resources in the environment as a result of overpopulation and increased usage may not be free from error. Ignorance still exists in understanding the recovery mechanisms of nature. Long-range forecasts are likely to be wrong in such situations. (PS)

  13. A Forecast Model for Unemployment by Education

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tranæs, Torben; Larsen, Anders Holm; Groes, Niels

    1994-01-01

    We present a dynamic forecast model for the labour market: demand for labour by education and the distribution of labour by education among industries are determined endogenously with overall demand by industry given exogenously. The model is derived from a simple behavioural equation based on a ...... for educational groups, where the initial forecast year is a change point for unemployment....

  14. Forecasting the demand for new telecommunication services

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Skouby, Knud Erik; Veiro, Bjørn

    1991-01-01

    A forecasting method that is applicable for new services, where little historical data have been recorded, is proposed. The method uses estimators based on economical, demographic and traffic data. Compared to traditional forecasting procedures that are built upon a solid historical record of dat...

  15. Toward a Marine Ecological Forecasting System

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-06-01

    coral bleaching , living resource distribution, and pathogen progression). An operational ecological forecasting system depends upon the assimilation of...space scales (e.g., harmful algal blooms, dissolved oxygen concentration (hypoxia), water quality/beach closures, coral bleaching , living resource...advance. Two beaches in Lake Michigan have been selected for initial implementation. Forecasting Coral Bleaching in relation to Ocean Temperatures

  16. Forecasting Workload for Defense Logistics Agency Distribution

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-12-01

    forecast results (Syntetos, Boylan, & Disney , 2009). The inevitable errors in mathematical models can be ameliorated by decisions managers make. The...www.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a211935.pdf. Syntetos, A. A., Boylan, J. E., & Disney , S. M. (2009). Forecasting for inventory planning: A 50-year review. The

  17. School Science Inspired by Improving Weather Forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reid, Heather; Renfrew, Ian A.; Vaughan, Geraint

    2014-01-01

    High winds and heavy rain are regular features of the British weather, and forecasting these events accurately is a major priority for the Met Office and other forecast providers. This is the challenge facing DIAMET, a project involving university groups from Manchester, Leeds, Reading, and East Anglia, together with the Met Office. DIAMET is part…

  18. Quantifying forecast quality of IT business value

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Eveleens, J.L.; van der Pas, M.; Verhoef, C.

    2012-01-01

    This article discusses how to quantify the forecasting quality of IT business value. We address a common economic indicator often used to determine the business value of project proposals, the Net Present Value (NPV). To quantify the forecasting quality of IT business value, we develop a generalized

  19. Fuzzy time series forecasting of wheat production

    OpenAIRE

    Narendra Kumar; Sachin Ahuja; Shashank Bhardwaj; Vipin Kumar

    2010-01-01

    The present study provides a foundation for the development and application of fuzzy time series model for short term agricultural production forecasting. The present study can provide an advantageous basis to Farm administration for better post harvest management and thelocal industries in planning for their raw material requirement management. The fuzzy time series forecasting can be optimally utilized in agri-business management.

  20. A Delphi Forecast of Technology in Education.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robinson, Burke E.

    The forecast reported here surveys expected utilization levels, organizational structures, and values concerning technology in education in 1990. The focus is upon educational technology and forecasting methodology; televised instruction, computer-assisted instruction (CAI), and information services are considered. The methodology employed…