Smith, James A.
How will migrating birds respond to changes in the environment under climate change? What are the implications for migratory success under the various accelerated climate change scenarios as forecast by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change? How will reductions or increased variability in the number or quality of wetland stop-over sites affect migratory bird species? The answers to these questions have important ramifications for conservation biology and wildlife management. Here, we describe the use of continental scale simulation modeling to explore how spatio-temporal changes along migratory flyways affect en-route migration success. We use an individually based, biophysical, mechanistic, bird migration model to simulate the movement of shorebirds in North America as a tool to study how such factors as drought and wetland loss may impact migratory success and modify migration patterns. Our model is driven by remote sensing and climate data and incorporates important landscape variables. The energy budget components of the model include resting, foraging, and flight, but presently predation is ignored. Results/Conclusions We illustrate our model by studying the spring migration of sandpipers through the Great Plains to their Arctic breeding grounds. Why many species of shorebirds have shown significant declines remains a puzzle. Shorebirds are sensitive to stop-over quality and spacing because of their need for frequent refueling stops and their opportunistic feeding patterns. We predict bird "hydrographs that is, stop-over frequency with latitude, that are in agreement with the literature. Mean stop-over durations predicted from our model for nominal cases also are consistent with the limited, but available data. For the shorebird species simulated, our model predicts that shorebirds exhibit significant plasticity and are able to shift their migration patterns in response to changing drought conditions. However, the question remains as to whether this
habitats with those in rural habitats. Some species have decreased the frequency of migrants and migration distance in urban environments, and others have not. The other manuscript describes the small scale movements of three different Palaearctic migrants during winter in Africa in a farmland habitat....... In another species, environmental conditions are not a good predictor of movements, and possibly effects of timing constraints or food type play a role. Two manuscripts focus on the effects of human-induced habitat alterations on migratory behaviour. One compares the movements of partial migrants in urban...... and a forest reserve. In the degraded habitat all species used more space, although the consequence on bird density is less clear. Two manuscripts relate the migratory movements of a long-distance migrant with models of navigation. One compares model predictions obtained by simulation with actual movements...
McLaren, J.D.; Shamoun-Baranes, J.; Bouten, W.
Many migrating birds divide their journeys into nocturnal flights interspersed by stopovers where they build up energy reserves (fuel) for subsequent flights. Given the difficulty in monitoring fuel loads of individual migrants over long distances, theoretical models are often used to interpret
During modern birds history, climatic and environmental conditions have evolved on wide scales. In a continuously changing world, landbirds annual migrations emerged and developed. However, models accounting for the origins of these avian migrations were formulated with static ecogeographic perspectives. Here I reviewed Cenozoic paleoclimatic and paleontological data relative to the palearctic paleotropical long distance (LD) migration system. This led to propose a new model for the origin of LD migrations, the ‘shifting home’ model (SHM). It is based on a dynamic perspective of climate evolution and may apply to the origins of most modern migrations. Non-migrant tropical African bird taxa were present at European latitudes during most of the Cenozoic. Their distribution limits shifted progressively toward modern tropical latitudes during periods of global cooling and increasing seasonality. In parallel, decreasing winter temperatures in the western Palearctic drove shifts of population winter ranges toward the equator. I propose that this induced the emergence of most short distance migrations, and in turn LD migrations. This model reconciliates ecologically tropical ancestry of most LD migrants with predominant winter range shifts, in accordance with requirements for heritable homing. In addition, it is more parsimonious than other non-exclusive models. Greater intrinsic plasticity of winter ranges implied by the SHM is supported by recently observed impacts of the present global warming on migrating birds. This may induce particular threats to some LD migrants. The ancestral, breeding homes of LD migrants were not ‘northern’ or ‘southern’ but shifted across high and middle latitudes while migrations emerged through winter range shifts themselves.
Iwajomo, Soladoye Babatola
Bird migration has attracted a lot of interests over past centuries and the methods used for studying this phenomenon has greatly improved in terms of availability, dimension, scale and precision. In spite of the advancements, relatively more is known about the spring migration of trans-Saharan m......Bird migration has attracted a lot of interests over past centuries and the methods used for studying this phenomenon has greatly improved in terms of availability, dimension, scale and precision. In spite of the advancements, relatively more is known about the spring migration of trans...... of birds from Europe to Africa and opens up the possibility of studying intra-African migration. I have used long-term, standardized autumn ringing data from southeast Sweden to investigate patterns in biometrics, phenology and population trends as inferred from annual trapping totals. In addition, I...... in the population of the species. The papers show that adult and juvenile birds can use different migration strategies depending on time of season and prevailing conditions. Also, the fuel loads of some individuals were theoretically sufficient for a direct flight to important goal area, but whether they do so...
Laboratory experiments have shown the magnetic compass to be wavelength dependent: migratory birds require light from the blue-green part of the spectrum for magnetic compass orientation, whereas red light (visible long-wavelength disrupts magnetic orientation. We designed a field study to test if and how changing light color influenced migrating birds under field conditions. We found that nocturnally migrating birds were disoriented and attracted by red and white light (containing visible long-wavelength radiation, whereas they were clearly less disoriented by blue and green light (containing less or no visible long-wavelength radiation. This was especially the case on overcast nights. Our results clearly open perspective for the development of bird-friendly artificial lighting by manipulating wavelength characteristics. Preliminary results with an experimentally developed bird-friendly light source on an offshore platform are promising. What needs to be investigated is the impact of bird-friendly light on other organisms than birds.
Shamoun-Baranes, Judy; Liechti, Felix; Vansteelant, Wouter M G
The extraordinary adaptations of birds to contend with atmospheric conditions during their migratory flights have captivated ecologists for decades. During the 21st century technological advances have sparked a revival of research into the influence of weather on migrating birds. Using biologging technology, flight behaviour is measured across entire flyways, weather radar networks quantify large-scale migratory fluxes, citizen scientists gather observations of migrant birds and mechanistic models are used to simulate migration in dynamic aerial environments. In this review, we first introduce the most relevant microscale, mesoscale and synoptic scale atmospheric phenomena from the point of view of a migrating bird. We then provide an overview of the individual responses of migrant birds (when, where and how to fly) in relation to these phenomena. We explore the cumulative impact of individual responses to weather during migration, and the consequences thereof for populations and migratory systems. In general, individual birds seem to have a much more flexible response to weather than previously thought, but we also note similarities in migratory behaviour across taxa. We propose various avenues for future research through which we expect to derive more fundamental insights into the influence of weather on the evolution of migratory behaviour and the life-history, population dynamics and species distributions of migrant birds.
Full Text Available Analysis of the mean date of first captures and median arrival dates of spring migration for 34 species of birds at Eilat, Israel, revealed that the earlier a species migrates through Eilat, the greater is the inter-annual variation in the total time of its passage. Birds arrive during spring migration in Eilat in four structured and independent waves. The annual fluctuation in the initial arrival dates (initial capture dates and median dates (median date of all captures, not including recaptures, did not depend on the length of the migratory route. This implies that migrants crossing the Sahara desert depart from their winter quarters on different Julian days in different years. We suggest that negative correlations between the median date of the spring migration of early and late migrants depends upon the easterly (Hamsin wind period. Moreover, we believe that the phenology of all birds during spring migration in Eilat is possibly also determined by external factors such as weather conditions on the African continent or global climatic processes in the Northern hemisphere. Orphean Warblers (Sylvia hortensis show a strong positive correlation (rs=-0.502 of initial capture date with calendar years, whereas other species such as Barred Warbler (S. nisoria; rs = -0.391 and Spotted Flycatcher (Muscicapa striata; rs = -0.398 display an insignificant trend. The Dead Sea Sparrow (Passer moabiticus and Red-Backed Shrike (Lanius collurio are positively correlated regarding initial arrival date and medians of spring migration.
van Gasteren, H.; Shamoun-Baranes, J.; Ginati, A.; Garofalo, G.
Every year billions of birds migrate from breeding areas to their wintering ranges, some travelling over 10,000 km. Stakeholders interested in aviation flight safety, spread of disease, conservation, education, urban planning, meteorology, wind turbines and bird migration ecology are interested in
van Gasteren, H.; Shamoun-Baranes, J.; Ginati, A.; Garofalo, G.
Every year billions of birds migrate from breeding areas to their wintering ranges, some travelling over 10,000 km. Stakeholders interested in aviation flight safety, spread of disease, conservation, education, urban planning, meteorology, wind turbines and bird migration ecology are interested in information on bird movements. Collecting and disseminating useful information about such mobile creatures exhibiting diverse behaviour is no simple task. However, ESA’s Integrated Application Promo...
Aydoğdu, A; Frasca, P; D'Apice, C; Manzo, R; Thornton, J M; Gachomo, B; Wilson, T; Cheung, B; Tariq, U; Saidel, W; Piccoli, B
In this paper we introduce a mathematical model to study the group dynamics of birds resting on wires. The model is agent-based and postulates attraction-repulsion forces between the interacting birds: the interactions are "topological", in the sense that they involve a given number of neighbors irrespective of their distance. The model is first mathematically analyzed and then simulated to study its main properties: we observe that the model predicts birds to be more widely spaced near the borders of each group. We compare the results from the model with experimental data, derived from the analysis of pictures of pigeons and starlings taken in New Jersey: two different image elaboration protocols allow us to establish a good agreement with the model and to quantify its main parameters. We also discuss the potential handedness of the birds, by analyzing the group organization features and the group dynamics at the arrival of new birds. Finally, we propose a more refined mathematical model that describes landing and departing birds by suitable stochastic processes. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
civilian and military flights. Since 1985, nearly 38,000 bird-military aircraft collisions have been reported. These collisions have killed 33 pilots...stations in the contiguous United States. Edges of the circles are at 124 nautical mile range (230 km). and 2004, approximately 194 people were killed ... Mockingbird Wilson’s Snipe Pileated Woodpecker American Wigeon Red-bellied Woodpecker American Coot Red-cockaded Woodpecker Black-crowned Night
Cabrera-Cruz, Sergio A; Smolinsky, Jaclyn A; Buler, Jeffrey J
Excessive or misdirected artificial light at night (ALAN) produces light pollution that influences several aspects of the biology and ecology of birds, including disruption of circadian rhythms and disorientation during flight. Many migrating birds traverse large expanses of land twice every year at night when ALAN illuminates the sky. Considering the extensive and increasing encroachment of light pollution around the world, we evaluated the association of the annual mean ALAN intensity over land within the geographic ranges of 298 nocturnally migrating bird species with five factors: phase of annual cycle, mean distance between breeding and non-breeding ranges, range size, global hemisphere of range, and IUCN category of conservation concern. Light pollution within geographic ranges was relatively greater during the migration season, for shorter-distance migrants, for species with smaller ranges, and for species in the western hemisphere. Our results suggest that migratory birds may be subject to the effects of light pollution particularly during migration, the most critical stage in their annual cycle. We hope these results will spur further research on how light pollution affects not only migrating birds, but also other highly mobile animals throughout their annual cycle.
Bruderer, B.; Steidinger, P.
Methods of analyzing bird migration by using tracking radar are discussed. The procedure for assessing the rate of bird passage is described. Three topics are presented concerning the grouping of nocturnal migrants, the velocity of migratory flight, and identification of species by radar echoes. The height and volume of migration under different weather conditions are examined. The methods for studying the directions of migration and the correlation between winds and the height and direction of migrating birds are presented.
van Gasteren, H.; Holleman, I.; Bouten, W.; van Loon, E.; Shamoun-Baranes, J.
Although radar has been used in studies of bird migration for 60 years, there is still no network in Europe for comprehensive monitoring of bird migration. Europe has a dense network of military air surveillance radars but most systems are not directly suitable for reliable bird monitoring. Since
van Loon, E.E.; Shamoun-Baranes, J.; Bouten, W.; Davis, S.L.
Many soaring bird species migrate southwards in autumn from their breeding grounds in Europe and Central Asia towards their wintering grounds. Our knowledge about interactions between migrating birds, thermal selection during migration and mechanisms that lead to flocking or convergent travel
Ruth, Janet M.; Felix, Rodney K.; Dieh, Robert H.
To ensure full life-cycle conservation, we need to understand migrant behavior en route and how migrating species use stopover and migration aerohabitats. In the Southwest, birds traverse arid and mountainous landscapes in migration. Migrants are known to use riparian stopover habitats; we know less about how migrant density varies across the Southwest seasonally and annually, and how migrants use other habitat types during migratory stopover. Furthermore, we lack information about migrant flight altitudes, speeds, and directions of travel, and how these patterns vary seasonally and annually across the Southwest. Using weather surveillance radar data, we identified targets likely dominated by nocturnally migrating birds and determined their flight altitudes, speeds, directions over ground, and variations in abundance. Migrating or foraging bats likely are present across the region in some of these data, particularly in central Texas. We found that migrants flew at significantly lower altitudes and significantly higher speeds in spring than in fall. In all seasons migrants maintained seasonally appropriate directions of movement. We detected significant differences in vertical structure of migrant densities that varied both geographically within seasons and seasonally within sites. We also found that in fall there was a greater and more variable passage of migrants through the central part of the borderlands (New Mexico and west Texas); in spring there was some suggestion of greater and more variable passage of migrants in the eastern borderlands (central and south Texas). Such patterns are consistent with the existence of at least two migration systems through western North America and the use of different migration routes in spring and fall for at least some species. Using radar data and satellite land cover data, we determined the habitats with which migrants are associated during migration stopover. There were significant differences in bird densities among
Coppack, Timothy; Becker, Simon F; Becker, Philipp J J
Many species of migratory birds migrate in a series of solitary nocturnal flights. Between flights, they stop to rest and refuel for the next segment of their journey. The mechanism controlling this behaviour has long remained elusive. Here, we show that wild-caught migratory redstarts (Phoenicurus phoenicurus) are consistent in their flight scheduling. An advanced videographic system enabled us to determine the precise timing of flight activity in redstarts caught at a northern European stopover site during their return trip from Africa. Birds were held captive for three days in the absence of photoperiodic cues (constant dim light) and under permanent food availability. Despite the absence of external temporal cues, birds showed clear bimodal activity patterns: intense nocturnal activity alternating with diurnal foraging and resting periods. The onset of their migratory activity coincided with the time of local sunset and was individually consistent on consecutive nights. The data demonstrate that night-migrating birds are driven by autonomous circadian clocks entrained by sunset cues. This timekeeping system is probably the key factor in the overall control of nocturnal songbird migration.
Shamoun-Baranes, J.; van Loon, E.E.; Alon, D.; Alpert, P.; Yom-Tov, Y.; Leshem, Y.
Aims Different aspects of soaring-bird migration are influenced by weather. However, the relationship between weather and the onset of soaring-bird migration, particularly in autumn, is not clear. Although long-term migration counts are often unavailable near the breeding areas of many soaring birds
Full Text Available Wild birds have been implicated in the emergence of human and livestock influenza. The successful prediction of viral spread and disease emergence, as well as formulation of preparedness plans have been hampered by a critical lack of knowledge of viral movements between different host populations. The patterns of viral spread and subsequent risk posed by wild bird viruses therefore remain unpredictable. Here we analyze genomic data, including 287 newly sequenced avian influenza A virus (AIV samples isolated over a 34-year period of continuous systematic surveillance of North American migratory birds. We use a Bayesian statistical framework to test hypotheses of viral migration, population structure and patterns of genetic reassortment. Our results reveal that despite the high prevalence of Charadriiformes infected in Delaware Bay this host population does not appear to significantly contribute to the North American AIV diversity sampled in Anseriformes. In contrast, influenza viruses sampled from Anseriformes in Alberta are representative of the AIV diversity circulating in North American Anseriformes. While AIV may be restricted to specific migratory flyways over short time frames, our large-scale analysis showed that the long-term persistence of AIV was independent of bird flyways with migration between populations throughout North America. Analysis of long-term surveillance data provides vital insights to develop appropriately informed predictive models critical for pandemic preparedness and livestock protection.
Many species of birds migrate every year thousands of kilometers, relying on sight, memory, magnetic sensors and instincts to find their way across continents. Many juvenile birds travel complicated migration routes without the guidance of more experienced adults. To successfully accomplish this they need instincts that utilizes multiple navigational senses together with a time dependent schedule. Little is known of the genetics behind migration behavior and which cellular processes are invol...
Smith, James A.; Blattner, Tim; Messmer, Peter
The broad-scale reductions and shifts that may be expected under climate change in the availability and quality of stopover habitat for long-distance migrants is an area of increasing concern for conservation biologists. Researchers generally have taken two broad approaches to the modeling of migration behaviour to understand the impact of these changes on migratory bird populations. These include models based on causal processes and their response to environmental stimulation, "mechanistic models", or models that primarily are based on observed animal distribution patterns and the correlation of these patterns with environmental variables, i.e. "data driven" models. Investigators have applied the latter technique to forecast changes in migration patterns with changes in the environment, for example, as might be expected under climate change, by forecasting how the underlying environmental data layers upon which the relationships are built will change over time. The learned geostatstical correlations are then applied to the modified data layers.. However, this is problematic. Even if the projections of how the underlying data layers will change are correct, it is not evident that the statistical relationships will remain the same, i.e. that the animal organism may not adapt its' behaviour to the changing conditions. Mechanistic models that explicitly take into account the physical, biological, and behaviour responses of an organism as well as the underlying changes in the landscape offer an alternative to address these shortcomings. The availability of satellite remote sensing observations at multiple spatial and temporal scales, coupled with advances in climate modeling and information technologies enable the application of the mechanistic models to predict how continental bird migration patterns may change in response to environmental change. In earlier work, we simulated the impact of effects of wetland loss and inter-annual variability on the fitness of
Jacobsen, Lars Bo; Jensen, Niels Odder; Willemoes, Mikkel
Background: Knowledge of spatiotemporal migration patterns is important for our understanding of migration ecology and ultimately conservation of migratory species. We studied the annual migration schedules of European nightjar, a large nocturnal insectivore and compared it with two other larger ...
Hahn, S.M.; Bauer, S.; Liechti, F.
The Palaearctic–African migration system comprises enormous numbers of birds travelling between Europe and Africa twice each year. Migratory birds may form strong links between the two continents given they can act as both transport vehicles for parasites and diseases as well as temporary consumers
The life cycle of many bird species involves the twice-annual movement between a breeding ground and a wintering ground that we refer to as `migration'. To complete these journeys, birds must successfully navigate many obstacles including a dynamic atmosphere. To make optimal use of this
McLaren, J.D.; Buler, J.J.; Schreckengost, T.; Smolinsky, J.A.; Boone, M.; van Loon, E.E.; Dawson, D.K.; Walters, E.L.
With many of the world's migratory bird populations in alarming decline, broad-scale assessments of responses to migratory hazards may prove crucial to successful conservation efforts. Most birds migrate at night through increasingly light-polluted skies. Bright light sources can attract airborne
La Sorte, Frank A; Fink, Daniel; Buler, Jeffrey J; Farnsworth, Andrew; Cabrera-Cruz, Sergio A
The spatial extent and intensity of artificial light at night (ALAN) has increased worldwide through the growth of urban environments. There is evidence that nocturnally migrating birds are attracted to ALAN, and there is evidence that nocturnally migrating bird populations are more likely to occur in urban areas during migration, especially in the autumn. Here, we test if urban sources of ALAN are responsible, at least in part, for these observed urban associations. We use weekly estimates of diurnal occurrence and relative abundance for 40 nocturnally migrating bird species that breed in forested environments in North America to assess how associations with distance to urban areas and ALAN are defined across the annual cycle. Migratory bird populations presented stronger than expected associations with shorter distances to urban areas during migration, and stronger than expected association with higher levels of ALAN outside and especially within urban areas during migration. These patterns were more pronounced during autumn migration, especially within urban areas. Outside of the two migration periods, migratory bird populations presented stronger than expected associations with longer distances to urban areas, especially during the nonbreeding season, and weaker than expected associations with the highest levels of ALAN outside and especially within urban areas. These findings suggest that ALAN is associated with higher levels of diurnal abundance along the boundaries and within the interior of urban areas during migration, especially in the autumn when juveniles are undertaking their first migration journey. These findings support the conclusion that urban sources of ALAN can broadly effect migratory behavior, emphasizing the need to better understand the implications of ALAN for migratory bird populations. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Visser, M.E.; Perdeck, A.C.; van Balen, J.H.; Both, C.
Global climate change has led to warmer winters in NW Europe, shortening the distance between suitable overwintering areas and the breeding areas of many bird species. Here we show that winter recovery distances have decreased over the past seven decades, for birds ringed during the breeding season
Visser, Marcel E.; Perdeck, Albert C.; van Balen, Johan H.; Both, Christiaan
Global climate change has led to warmer winters in NW Europe, shortening the distance between suitable overwintering areas and the breeding areas of many bird species. Here we show that winter recovery distances have decreased over the past seven decades, for birds ringed during the breeding season
Cooper-Mullin, Clara; McWilliams, Scott R
During migration, birds substantially increase their metabolic rate and burn fats as fuel and yet somehow avoid succumbing to overwhelming oxidative damage. The physiological means by which vertebrates such as migrating birds can counteract an increased production of reactive species (RS) are rather limited: they can upregulate their endogenous antioxidant system and/or consume dietary antioxidants (prophylactically or therapeutically). Thus, birds can alter different components of their antioxidant system to respond to the demands of long-duration flights, but much remains to be discovered about the complexities of RS production and antioxidant protection throughout migration. Here, we use bird migration as an example to discuss how RS are produced during endurance exercise and how the complex antioxidant system can protect against cellular damage caused by RS. Understanding how a bird's antioxidant system responds during migration can lend insights into how antioxidants protect birds during other life-history stages when metabolic rate may be high, and how antioxidants protect other vertebrates from oxidative damage during endurance exercise. © 2016. Published by The Company of Biologists Ltd.
McLaren, James D.; Buler, Jeffrey J.; Schreckengost, Tim; Smolinsky, Jaclyn A.; Boone, Matthew; van Loon, E. Emiel; Dawson, Deanna K.; Walters, Eric L.
With many of the world's migratory bird populations in alarming decline, broad-scale assessments of responses to migratory hazards may prove crucial to successful conservation efforts. Most birds migrate at night through increasingly light-polluted skies. Bright light sources can attract airborne migrants and lead to collisions with structures, but might also influence selection of migratory stopover habitat and thereby acquisition of food resources. We demonstrate, using multi-year weather radar measurements of nocturnal migrants across the northeastern U.S., that autumnal migrant stopover density increased at regional scales with proximity to the brightest areas, but decreased within a few kilometers of brightly-lit sources. This finding implies broad-scale attraction to artificial light while airborne, impeding selection for extensive forest habitat. Given that high-quality stopover habitat is critical to successful migration, and hindrances during migration can decrease fitness, artificial lights present a potentially heightened conservation concern for migratory bird populations.
Roč. 54, 1-2 (2005), s. 159-164 ISSN 0139-7893 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z60930519 Keywords : migratory birds * phenology * spring arrival Subject RIV: EG - Zoology Impact factor: 0.585, year: 2005 http://www.ivb.cz/folia/54/1-2/159-164.pdf
Boyle, W Alice
Migration is among the best studied of animal behaviors, yet few empirical studies have tested hypotheses explaining the ultimate causes of these cyclical annual movements. Fretwell's (1980) hypothesis predicts that if nest predation explains why many tropical birds migrate uphill to breed, then predation risk must be negatively associated with elevation. Data from 385 artificial nests spanning 2,740 m of elevation on the Atlantic slope of Costa Rica show an overall decline in predation with increasing elevation. However, nest predation risk was highest at intermediate elevations (500-650 m), not at lowest elevations. The proportion of nests depredated by different types of predators differed among elevations. These results imply that over half of the altitudinal migrant bird species in this region migrate to safer breeding areas than their non-breeding areas, suggesting that variation in nest predation risk could be an important benefit of uphill migrations of many species.
Aagaard, Kevin; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Lonsdorg, Eric V.
Climate and weather affect avian migration by influencing when and where birds fly, the energy costs and risks of flight, and the ability to sense cues necessary for proper navigation. We review the literature of the physiology of avian migration and the influence of climate, specifically temperature, on avian migration dynamics. We use waterfowl as a model guild because of the ready availability of empirical physiological data and their enormous economic value, but our discussion and expectations are broadly generalizable to migratory birds in general. We detail potential consequences of an increasingly warm climate on avian migration, including the possibility of the cessation of migration by some populations and species. Our intent is to lay the groundwork for including temperature effects on energetic gains and losses of migratory birds with the expected consequences of increasing temperatures into a predictive modeling framework. To this end, we provide a simulation of migration progression exclusively focused on the influence of temperature on the physiological determinants of migration. This simulation produced comparable results to empirically derived and observed values for different migratory factors (e.g., body fat content, flight range, departure date). By merging knowledge from the arenas of avian physiology and migratory theory we have identified a clear need for research and have developed hypotheses for a path forward.
Lok, Tamar; Overdijk, Otto; Tinbergen, Joost M.; Piersma, Theunis
Migrant birds face a choice where to spend the winter. Presumably there is a trade-off between migration distance (costs) and the quality of the wintering site (benefits). Wintering site fidelity is often high and increases with age. Hypotheses to explain such a pattern assume that wintering site
Bridge, Eli S.; Kelly, Jeffrey F.; Xiao, Xiangming; Takekawa, John Y.; Hill, Nichola J.; Yamage, Mat; Haque, Enam Ul; Islam, Mohammad Anwarul; Mundkur, Taej; Yavuz, Kiraz Erciyas; Leader, Paul; Leung, Connie Y.H.; Smith, Bena; Spragens, Kyle A.; Vandegrift, Kurt J.; Hosseini, Parviez R.; Saif, Samia; Mohsanin, Samiul; Mikolon, Andrea; Islam, Ausrafal; George, Acty; Sivananinthaperumal, Balachandran; Daszak, Peter; Newman, Scott H.
Satellite-based tracking of migratory waterfowl is an important tool for understanding the potential role of wild birds in the long-distance transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza. However, employing this technique on a continental scale is prohibitively expensive. This study explores the utility of stable isotope ratios in feathers in examining both the distances traveled by migratory birds and variation in migration behavior. We compared the satellite-derived movement data of 22 ducks from 8 species captured at wintering areas in Bangladesh, Turkey, and Hong Kong with deuterium ratios (δD) in the feathers of these and other individuals captured at the same locations. We derived likely molting locations from the satellite tracking data and generated expected isotope ratios based on an interpolated map of δD in rainwater. Although δD was correlated with the distance between wintering and molting locations, surprisingly, measured δD values were not correlated with either expected values or latitudes of molting sites. However, population-level parameters derived from the satellite-tracking data, such as mean distance between wintering and molting locations and variation in migration distance, were reflected by means and variation of the stable isotope values. Our findings call into question the relevance of the rainfall isotope map for Asia for linking feather isotopes to molting locations, and underscore the need for extensive ground truthing in the form of feather-based isoscapes. Nevertheless, stable isotopes from feathers could inform disease models by characterizing the degree to which regional breeding populations interact at common wintering locations. Feather isotopes also could aid in surveying wintering locations to determine where high-resolution tracking techniques (e.g. satellite tracking) could most effectively be employed. Moreover, intrinsic markers such as stable isotopes offer the only means of inferring movement information from
Tøttrup, Anders P.; Rainio, Kalle; Coppack, Timothy
and predict consequences of climatic change for migratory birds. In order to better understand migration phenology and adaptation in environmental changes, we here assess the scale at which weather affects timing of spring migration in passerine birds. We use three commonly used proxies of spring......-time climatic conditions: (1) vegetation "greenness" (NDVI) in Europe, (2) local spring temperatures in northern Europe, and (3) the North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAO) as predictors of the phenology of avian migration as well as the strength of their effect on different subsets of populations...... breeding area. Local temperature was the best single predictor of phenology with the highest explanatory power achieved in combination with NAO. Furthermore, early individuals are more affected by climatic variation compared to individuals on later passage, indicating that climatic change affects subsets...
Full Text Available The global spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 in poultry, wild birds and humans, poses a significant pandemic threat and a serious public health risk. An efficient surveillance and disease control system relies on the understanding of the dispersion patterns and spreading mechanisms of the virus. A space-time cluster analysis of H5N1 outbreaks was used to identify spatio-temporal patterns at a global scale and over an extended period of time. Potential mechanisms explaining the spread of the H5N1 virus, and the role of wild birds, were analyzed. Between December 2003 and December 2006, three global epidemic phases of H5N1 influenza were identified. These H5N1 outbreaks showed a clear seasonal pattern, with a high density of outbreaks in winter and early spring (i.e., October to March. In phase I and II only the East Asia Australian flyway was affected. During phase III, the H5N1 viruses started to appear in four other flyways: the Central Asian flyway, the Black Sea Mediterranean flyway, the East Atlantic flyway and the East Africa West Asian flyway. Six disease cluster patterns along these flyways were found to be associated with the seasonal migration of wild birds. The spread of the H5N1 virus, as demonstrated by the space-time clusters, was associated with the patterns of migration of wild birds. Wild birds may therefore play an important role in the spread of H5N1 over long distances. Disease clusters were also detected at sites where wild birds are known to overwinter and at times when migratory birds were present. This leads to the suggestion that wild birds may also be involved in spreading the H5N1 virus over short distances.
Dusek, Robert J.; McLean, R.G.; Kramer, L.D.; Ubico, S.R.; Dupuis, A.P.; Ebel, G.D.; Guptill, S.C.
To investigate the role of migratory birds in the dissemination of West Nile virus (WNV), we measured the prevalence of infectious WNV and specific WNV neutralizing antibodies in birds, principally Passeriformes, during spring and fall migrations in the Atlantic and Mississippi flyways from 2001-2003. Blood samples were obtained from 13,403 birds, representing 133 species. Specific WNV neutralizing antibody was detected in 254 resident and migratory birds, representing 39 species, and was most commonly detected in northern cardinals (Cardinalis cardinalis) (9.8%, N = 762) and gray catbirds (Dumetella carolinensis) (3.2%,N = 3188). West Nile virus viremias were detected in 19 birds, including 8 gray catbirds, and only during the fall migratory period. These results provide additional evidence that migratory birds may have been a principal agent for the spread of WNV in North America and provide data on the occurrence of WNV in a variety of bird species. Copyright ?? 2009 by The American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene.
Migration routes used by Nearctic migrant birds can cover great distances; they also differ among species, within species, and between years and seasons. As a result, migration routes for an entire migratory avifauna can encompass broad geographic areas, making it impossible to protect continuous stretches of habitat sufficient to connect the wintering and breeding grounds for most species. Consequently, ways to enhance habitats converted for human use (i.e. for pasture, crop cultivation, human settlement) as stopover sites for migrants are especially important. Shelterbelts around pastures and fields, if planted with species targeted to support migrant (and resident) bird species that naturally occupy mature forest habitats and that are at least partially frugivorous, could be a powerful enhancement tool for such species, if the birds will enter the converted areas to feed. I tested this approach for Nearctic migrant birds during the spring migration through an area in Chiapas, Mexico. Mature forest tree species whose fruits are eaten by birds were surveyed. Based on life form, crop size and fruit characteristics, I selected three tree species for study: Cymbopetalum mayanum (Annonaceae), Bursera simaruba (Burseraceae) and Trophis racemosa (Moraceae). I compared the use of fruits of these species by migrants and residents in forest with their use of the fruits of isolated individuals of the same species in pasture and cropland. All three plant species were useful for enhancing converted habitats for forest-occupying spring migrants, although species differed in the degree to which they entered disturbed areas to feed on the fruits. These tree species could probably enhance habitats for migrants at sites throughout the natural geographic ranges of the plants; in other geographic areas for other target bird groups, other tree species might be more appropriate.
Ramadan Jaradi, Gh.; Ramadan Jaradi, M.
Beale and Ramadan Jaradi initiated in 2001 the first large scale survey in Lebanon to trace the main routes of migrating raptors and other soaring birds, aiming at contributing to the conservation of flyways and stopover sites through the identification of areas where protection is most needed. Nowadays, the study of the flyways and stopover sites at micro level becomes necessary following the development of the national wind atlas map that will assist among others in locating potential wind farms which on their turn may influence the migratory birds flyways, especially that the wind farms use winds for their function and the soaring birds use wind for their transportation. The present work starts from where the work of Beale and Ramadan-Jaradi ended but in an attempt toprovide policy makers, scientists and experts with a conceptual framework, as well as methodological and operational tools for dealing with wind farms impacts and to prevent collisions of birds with blades of wind urbines. The study is meant to be conducted during spring and autumn passage ofbirds. This paper concerns the spring migration as at the time of writing it the autumn migration didn't start yet. The present spring season study revealed among others that the migratory soaring birds that may use the wind ridge lifts for their soaring travel in windy areas are more influenced by two other main factors:1) presence of depressions perpendicular to mountains ridgesand 2) abundance of the thermals in these depressions, a matter that naturally reduce the impact of wind turbines by attracting the birds away from their blade. (author)
Solov'yov, Ilia; Schulten, Klaus
A proposed model for migrating birds' magnetic sense can withstand moderate orientational disorder of a key protein in the eye.......A proposed model for migrating birds' magnetic sense can withstand moderate orientational disorder of a key protein in the eye....
Igl, Lawrence D.; Ballard, Bart M.
We report on the habitat associations of 21 species of grassland birds overwintering in or migrating through southern Texas, during 1991-1992 and 1992-1993. Ninety percent of our grassland bird observations were made during winter and spring, and only 10% occurred during fall. Grassland species made up a high proportion of the total bird densities in grassland and shrub-grassland habitats, but much lower proportions in the habitats with more woody vegetation. Fewer grassland species were observed in grassland and woodland than in brushland, parkland, and shrub-grassland habitats. Grassland birds generally were found in higher densities in habitats that had woody canopy coverage of < 30%; densities of grassland birds were highest in shrub-grassland habitat and lowest in woodland habitat. Species that are grassland specialists on their breeding grounds tended to be more habitat specific during the nonbreeding season compared to shrub-grassland specialists, which were more general in their nonbreeding-habitat usage. Nonetheless, our data demonstrate that grassland birds occur in a variety of habitats during the nonbreeding season and seem to occupy a broader range of habitats than previously described.
Full Text Available The Machine-Part Cell Formation Problem (MPCFP is a NP-Hard optimization problem that consists in grouping machines and parts in a set of cells, so that each cell can operate independently and the intercell movements are minimized. This problem has largely been tackled in the literature by using different techniques ranging from classic methods such as linear programming to more modern nature-inspired metaheuristics. In this paper, we present an efficient parallel version of the Migrating Birds Optimization metaheuristic for solving the MPCFP. Migrating Birds Optimization is a population metaheuristic based on the V-Flight formation of the migrating birds, which is proven to be an effective formation in energy saving. This approach is enhanced by the smart incorporation of parallel procedures that notably improve performance of the several sorting processes performed by the metaheuristic. We perform computational experiments on 1080 benchmarks resulting from the combination of 90 well-known MPCFP instances with 12 sorting configurations with and without threads. We illustrate promising results where the proposal is able to reach the global optimum in all instances, while the solving time with respect to a nonparallel approach is notably reduced.
U.S .Gantaloo; Sangeeta B Dongare
Environmental changes are now a day’s happening regularly day to day increase in temperature ,Scarcity of rainfall ,Drying of lakes have strong implication on Biodiversity .) .Global warming has set in motion and is affecting the timing of migration of birds .Birds are reliable indicator of environment change for centuries and their arrival indicate start of winter and departure summer in study area .There are many example of the effect of climate change on birds from all around t...
Tian, Huaivu; Zhou, Sen; Dong, Lu; Van Boeckel, Thomas P.; Cui, Yujun; Newman, Scott H.; Takekawa, John Y.; Prosser, Diann J.; Xiao, Xiangming; Wu, Yarong; Cazelles, Bernard; Huang, Shanqian; Yang, Ruifu; Grenfell, Bryan T.; Xu, Bing
The spatial spread of the highly pathogenic avian influenza virus H5N1 and its long-term persistence in Asia have resulted in avian influenza panzootics and enormous economic losses in the poultry sector. However, an understanding of the regional long-distance transmission and seasonal patterns of the virus is still lacking. In this study, we present a phylogeographic approach to reconstruct the viral migration network. We show that within each wild fowl migratory flyway, the timing of H5N1 outbreaks and viral migrations are closely associated, but little viral transmission was observed between the flyways. The bird migration network is shown to better reflect the observed viral gene sequence data than other networks and contributes to seasonal H5N1 epidemics in local regions and its large-scale transmission along flyways. These findings have potentially far-reaching consequences, improving our understanding of how bird migration drives the periodic reemergence of H5N1 in Asia.
Guglielmo, Christopher G
Migratory birds are physiologically specialized to accumulate massive fat stores (up to 50-60% of body mass), and to transport and oxidize fatty acids at very high rates to sustain flight for many hours or days. Target gene, protein and enzyme analyses and recent -omic studies of bird flight muscles confirm that high capacities for fatty acid uptake, cytosolic transport, and oxidation are consistent features that make fat-fueled migration possible. Augmented circulatory transport by lipoproteins is suggested by field data but has not been experimentally verified. Migratory bats have high aerobic capacity and fatty acid oxidation potential; however, endurance flight fueled by adipose-stored fat has not been demonstrated. Patterns of fattening and expression of muscle fatty acid transporters are inconsistent, and bats may partially fuel migratory flight with ingested nutrients. Changes in energy intake, digestive capacity, liver lipid metabolism and body temperature regulation may contribute to migratory fattening. Although control of appetite is similar in birds and mammals, neuroendocrine mechanisms regulating seasonal changes in fuel store set-points in migrants remain poorly understood. Triacylglycerol of birds and bats contains mostly 16 and 18 carbon fatty acids with variable amounts of 18:2n-6 and 18:3n-3 depending on diet. Unsaturation of fat converges near 70% during migration, and unsaturated fatty acids are preferentially mobilized and oxidized, making them good fuel. Twenty and 22 carbon n-3 and n-6 polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFA) may affect membrane function and peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor signaling. However, evidence for dietary PUFA as doping agents in migratory birds is equivocal and requires further study. © 2018. Published by The Company of Biologists Ltd.
Revell, Christopher; Somveille, Marius
In this paper, we introduce a mechanistic model of migratory movement patterns in birds, inspired by ideas and methods from physics. Previous studies have shed light on the factors influencing bird migration but have mainly relied on statistical correlative analysis of tracking data. Our novel method offers a bottom up explanation of population-level migratory movement patterns. It differs from previous mechanistic models of animal migration and enables predictions of pathways and destinations from a given starting location. We define an environmental potential landscape from environmental data and simulate bird movement within this landscape based on simple decision rules drawn from statistical mechanics. We explore the capacity of the model by qualitatively comparing simulation results to the non-breeding migration patterns of a seabird species, the Black-browed Albatross (Thalassarche melanophris). This minimal, two-parameter model was able to capture remarkably well the previously documented migration patterns of the Black-browed Albatross, with the best combination of parameter values conserved across multiple geographically separate populations. Our physics-inspired mechanistic model could be applied to other bird and highly-mobile species, improving our understanding of the relative importance of various factors driving migration and making predictions that could be useful for conservation.
Hassanalian, M; Abdelmoula, H; Ben Ayed, S; Abdelkefi, A
The thermal impact of the birds' color on their flight performance are investigated. In most of the large migrating birds, the top of their wings is black. Considering this natural phenomenon in the migrating birds, such as albatross, a thermal analysis of the boundary layer of their wings is performed during the year depending on the solar insulation. It is shown that the temperature difference between the bright and dark colored top wing surface is around 10°C. The dark color on the top of the wing increases the temperature of the boundary layer over the wing which consequently reduces the skin drag force over the wing. This reduction in the drag force can be considered as one of the effective factors for long endurance of these migrating birds. This research should lead to improved designs of the drones by applying the inspired colors which can help drones increase their endurance. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Sparagano, Olivier; George, David; Giangaspero, Annunziata; Špitalská, Eva
Geographic spread of parasites and pathogens poses a constant risk to animal health and welfare, particularly given that climate change is expected to potentially expand appropriate ranges for many key species. The spread of deleterious organisms via trade routes and human travelling is relatively closely controlled, though represents only one possible means of parasite/pathogen distribution. The transmission via natural parasite/pathogen movement between geographic locales, is far harder to manage. Though the extent of such movement may be limited by the relative inability of many parasites and pathogens to actively migrate, passive movement over long distances may still occur via migratory hosts. This paper reviews the potential role of migrating birds in the transfer of ectoparasites and pathogens between geographic locales, focusing primarily on ticks. Bird-tick-pathogen relationships are considered, and evidence provided of long-range parasite/pathogen transfer from one location to another during bird migration events. As shown in this paper not only many different arthropod species are carried by migrating birds but consequently these pests carry many different pathogens species which can be transmitted to the migrating birds or to other animal species when those arthropods are dropping during these migrations. Data available from the literature are provided highlighting the need to understand better dissemination paths and disease epidemiology. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Bødker, Rene; Vrbová, Erika; Højgaard, Jesper
Since the end of the ice age, spring migrating birds from Africa and Europe and autumn migrating birds from Northern Scandinavia have entered Denmark, and recently a small wave of long migrating carnivores have started arriving in Denmark from Central Europe. Theoretically, migrating birds could...... introduce new tick species as well as tick-associated pathogens to Denmark. These migrating animals may also carry ticks and pathogens which already exist in native tick populations in Denmark. The potential supplement of native ticks and existing pathogens to the established high density tick populations...... in Danish forest and nature areas can be expected to be of little practical importance. However, some of the infected ticks, introduced by migrating birds, may be deposited in private gardens and public parks that are otherwise not able to sustain a viable tick population. Migrating birds may therefore...
Kellermann, Jherime L.; van Riper, Charles
Migratory birds exploit seasonal variation in resources across latitudes, timing migration to coincide with the phenology of food at stopover sites. Differential responses to climate in phenology across trophic levels can result in phenological mismatch; however, detecting mismatch is sensitive to methodology. We examined patterns of migrant abundance and tree flowering, phenological mismatch, and the influence of climate during spring migration from 2009 to 2011 across five habitat types of the Madrean Sky Islands in southeastern Arizona, USA. We used two metrics to assess phenological mismatch: synchrony and overlap. We also examined whether phenological overlap declined with increasing difference in mean event date of phenophases. Migrant abundance and tree flowering generally increased with minimum spring temperature but depended on annual climate by habitat interactions. Migrant abundance was lowest and flowering was highest under cold, snowy conditions in high elevation montane conifer habitat while bird abundance was greatest and flowering was lowest in low elevation riparian habitat under the driest conditions. Phenological synchrony and overlap were unique and complementary metrics and should both be used when assessing mismatch. Overlap declined due to asynchronous phenologies but also due to reduced migrant abundance or flowering when synchrony was actually maintained. Overlap declined with increasing difference in event date and this trend was strongest in riparian areas. Montane habitat specialists may be at greatest risk of mismatch while riparian habitat could provide refugia during dry years for phenotypically plastic species. Interannual climate patterns that we observed match climate change projections for the arid southwest, altering stopover habitat condition.
McGrath, Laura J; van Riper, Charles; Fontaine, Joseph J
1. Neotropical migrant birds show a clear preference for stopover habitats with ample food supplies; yet, the proximate cues underlying these decisions remain unclear. 2. For insectivorous migrants, cues associated with vegetative phenology (e.g. flowering, leaf flush, and leaf loss) may reliably predict the availability of herbivorous arthropods. Here we examined whether migrants use the phenology of five tree species to choose stopover locations, and whether phenology accurately predicts food availability. 3. Using a combination of experimental and observational evidence, we show migrant populations closely track tree phenology, particularly the flowering phenology of honey mesquite (Prosopis glandulosa), and preferentially forage in trees with more flowers. Furthermore, the flowering phenology of honey mesquite reliably predicts overall arthropod abundance as well as the arthropods preferred by migrants for food. 4. Together, these results suggest that honey mesquite flowering phenology is an important cue used by migrants to assess food availability quickly and reliably, while in transit during spring migration.
Clausen, Niels-Erik; Mortensen, N.G.; Hansen, J.C.
The objective of this paper is to present part of The Wind Atlas for Egypt project aiming at developing a firm basis for planning and utilization of the vast wind energy resources available in Egypt. The project should recommend a common planning framework for wind farm development in Egypt...... is briefly introduced. As a case study to illustrate the planning process a 60 MW wind farm located at the Gulf of El-Zayt at the Gulf of Suez in Egypt will be analysed. This area is chosen for its very high wind energy potential and the high concentration of migrating birds during spring and autumn. During...... the site selection and layout of a wind farm the balancing of interests and land use will be described....
Waldenstrom, J.; Broman, T.; Carlsson, I.; Hasselquist, D.; Achterberg, R.P.; Wagenaar, J.A.; Olsen, B.
A total of 1,794 migrating birds trapped at a coastal site in southern Sweden were sampled for detection of Campylobacter spp. All isolates phenotypically identified as Campylobacter jejuni and a subset of those identified as non-C. jejuni were identified to the species level by PCR-based
Szabó, András; Mayor, Roberto
Collective cell migration has emerged in the recent decade as an important phenomenon in cell and developmental biology and can be defined as the coordinated and cooperative movement of groups of cells. Most studies concentrate on tightly connected epithelial tissues, even though collective migration does not require a constant physical contact. Movement of mesenchymal cells is more independent, making their emergent collective behaviour less intuitive and therefore lending importance to computational modelling. Here we focus on such modelling efforts that aim to understand the collective migration of neural crest cells, a mesenchymal embryonic population that migrates large distances as a group during early vertebrate development. By comparing different models of neural crest migration, we emphasize the similarity and complementary nature of these approaches and suggest a future direction for the field. The principles derived from neural crest modelling could aid understanding the collective migration of other mesenchymal cell types. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Boyle, W.A.; Conway, C.J.; Bronstein, Judith L.
Annual migrations of birds profoundly influence terrestrial communities. However, few empirical studies examine why birds migrate, in part due to the difficulty of testing causal hypotheses in long-distance migration systems. Short-distance altitudinal migrations provide relatively tractable systems in which to test explanations for migration. Many past studies explain tropical altitudinal migration as a response to spatial and temporal variation in fruit availability. Yet this hypothesis fails to explain why some coexisting, closely-related frugivorous birds remain resident year-round. We take a mechanistic approach by proposing and evaluating two hypotheses (one based on competitive exclusion and the other based on differences in dietary specialization) to explain why some, but not all, tropical frugivores migrate. We tested predictions of these hypotheses by comparing diets, fruit preferences, and the relationships between diet and preference in closely-related pairs of migrant and resident species. Fecal samples and experimental choice trials revealed that sympatric migrants and residents differed in both their diets and fruit preferences. Migrants consumed a greater diversity of fruits and fewer arthropods than did their resident counterparts. Migrants also tended to have slightly stronger fruit preferences than residents. Most critically, diets of migrants more closely matched their preferences than did the diets of residents. These results suggest that migrants may be competitively superior foragers for fruit compared to residents (rather than vice versa), implying that current competitive interactions are unlikely to explain variation in migratory behavior among coexisting frugivores. We found some support for the dietary specialization hypothesis, propose refinements to the mechanism underlying this hypothesis, and discuss how dietary specialization might ultimately reflect past interspecific competition. We recommend that future studies quantify variation
Shamoun-Baranes, J.; Bouten, W.; Sierdsema, H.; van Belle, J.; van Gasteren, J.R.; van Loon, E.E.
The NL-BAM was developed as a web-based decision support tool to be used by the bird hazard avoidance experts in the ecology unit of the Royal Netherlands Air Force. The NL-BAM will be used together with the ROBIN 4 radar system to provide BirdTAMS, for real time warnings and flight planning and to
Babu, Arun; Prasad, Ganesh
Bird strike events incidentally occur and can at times be fatal for air frame structures. Federal Aviation Regulations (FAR) and such other ones mandates aircrafts to be modeled to withstand various levels of bird hit damages. The subject matter of this paper is numerical modeling of a soft body geometry for realistically substituting an actual bird for carrying out simulations of bird hit on target structures. Evolution of such a numerical code to effect an actual bird behavior through impact is much desired for making use of the state of the art computational facilities in simulating bird strike events. Validity, of simulations depicting bird hits, is largely dependent on the correctness of the bird model. In an impact, a set of complex and coupled dynamic interaction exists between the target and the impactor. To simplify this problem, impactor response needs to be decoupled from that of the target. This can be done by assuming and modeling the target as noncompliant. Bird is assumed as fluidic in a impact. Generated stresses in the bird body are significant than its yield stresses. Hydrodynamic theory is most ideal for describing this problem. Impactor literally flows steadily over the target for most part of this problem. The impact starts with an initial shock and falls into a radial release shock regime. Subsequently a steady flow is established in the bird body and this phase continues till the whole length of the bird body is turned around. Initial shock pressure and steady state pressure are ideal variables for comparing and validating the bird model. Spatial discretization of the bird is done using Smooth Particle Hydrodynamic (SPH) approach. This Discrete Element Model (DEM) offers significant advantages over other contemporary approaches. Thermodynamic state variable relations are established using Polynomial Equation of State (EOS). ANSYS AUTODYN is used to perform the explicit dynamic simulation of the impact event. Validation of the shock and steady
Davenport, Lisa C; Goodenough, Katharine S; Haugaasen, Torbjørn
Seasonal flooding compels some birds that breed in aquatic habitats in Amazonia to undertake annual migrations, yet we know little about how the complex landscape of the Amazon region is used seasonally by these species. The possibility of trans-Andes migration for Amazonian breeding birds has largely been discounted given the high geographic barrier posed by the Andean Cordillera and the desert habitat along much of the Pacific Coast. Here we demonstrate a trans-Andes route for Black Skimmers (Rynchops niger cinerascens) breeding on the Manu River (in the lowlands of Manu National Park, Perú), as well as divergent movement patterns both regionally and across the continent. Of eight skimmers tracked with satellite telemetry, three provided data on their outbound migrations, with two crossing the high Peruvian Andes to the Pacific. A third traveled over 1800 km to the southeast before transmissions ended in eastern Paraguay. One of the two trans-Andean migrants demonstrated a full round-trip migration back to its tagging location after traveling down the Pacific Coast from latitude 9° South to latitude 37° S, spending the austral summer in the Gulf of Arauco, Chile. This is the first documentation of a trans-Andes migration observed for any bird breeding in lowland Amazonia. To our knowledge, this research also documents the first example of a tropical-breeding waterbird migrating out of the tropics to spend the non-breeding season in the temperate summer, this being the reverse pattern with respect to seasonality for austral migrants in general.
When a bird flies through the disk swept out by the blades of a wind turbine rotor, the probability of collision depends on the motions and dimensions of the bird and the blades. The collision model in this paper predicts the probability for birds that glide upwind, downwind, an across the wind past simple one-dimensional blades represented by straight lines, and upwind and downwind past more realistic three-dimensional blades with chord and twist. Probabilities vary over the surface of the disk, and in most cases, the tip of the blade is less likely to collide with a bird than parts of the blade nearer the hub. The mean probability may be found by integration over the disk area. The collision model identifies the rotor characteristics that could be altered to make turbines safer for birds
"This paper investigates the application of general linear modelling principles to analysing migration flows between areas. Particular attention is paid to specifying the form of the regression and error components, and the nature of departures from Poisson randomness. Extensions to take account of spatial and temporal correlation are discussed as well as constrained estimation. The issue of specification bears on the testing of migration theories, and assessing the role migration plays in job and housing markets: the direction and significance of the effects of economic variates on migration depends on the specification of the statistical model. The application is in the context of migration in London and South East England in the 1970s and 1980s." excerpt
Information on spring migration routes, geographic linkages among winter, spring, and breeding locations, and potential geographic effects on arrival body condition of a variety of avian species is so far little known. Stable isotope ratios are exquisitely sensitive to the biochemistry of living organisms and the nutrients available to them. Isotope ratios provide detailed knowledge useful in a variety of fields, including birds migration, through a combination of stable-isotope measurements of carbon (13C/12C) and hydrogen (D/H) isotopes of flight feathers and breast feathers of tissues representing different periods of dietary integration and body composition analyses. Associations among specific geographic areas, habitat use, and arrival condition can be elucidated through the measurement of these dual isotopes. We report here on the development of a novel laser spectroscopy based system for the simultaneous analysis of the stable isotope ratios of carbon (13C/12C) and hydrogen (D/H) that is robust, easy-to-use, and is the first stable isotope ratio analysis system to combine the measurement of 13C/12C and D/H in one simple analysis from a bulk organic sample with an application to bird migration. The system comprises a combustion module to convert the organic sample into CO2 and H2O and a Cavity Ring-Down Spectrometer (CRDS) that analyzes the combustion species inside an optical cavity based on the molecular absorption of individual isotopomers. This CRDS uses dual lasers to target the four isotpomers of interest: 12CO2, 13CO2, H2O and HDO. The system delivers a typical precision of 0.1 permil for δ13C and 1.5 permil for δD that parallels that achieved by IRMS, but with an unprecedented simplicity that allows ecologists to leverage the science and elucidate the avian migration patterns.
Lonsdorf, Eric V.; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Jacobi, Sarah; Coppen, Jorge; Davis, Amélie Y.; Fox, Timothy J.; Heglund, Patricia J.; Johnson, Rex; Jones, Tim; Kenow, Kevin P.; Lyons, James E.; Luke, Kirsten E.; Still, Shannon; Tavernia, Brian G.
Conserving migratory birds is made especially difficult because of movement among spatially disparate locations across the annual cycle. In light of challenges presented by the scale and ecology of migratory birds, successful conservation requires integrating objectives, management, and monitoring across scales, from local management units to ecoregional and flyway administrative boundaries. We present an integrated approach using a spatially explicit energetic-based mechanistic bird migration model useful to conservation decision-making across disparate scales and locations. This model moves a mallard-like bird (Anas platyrhynchos), through spring and fall migration as a function of caloric gains and losses across a continental scale energy landscape. We predicted with this model that fall migration, where birds moved from breeding to wintering habitat, took a mean of 27.5 days of flight with a mean seasonal survivorship of 90.5% (95% CI = 89.2%, 91.9%) whereas spring migration took a mean of 23.5 days of flight with mean seasonal survivorship of 93.6% (95% CI = 92.5%, 94.7%). Sensitivity analyses suggested that survival during migration was sensitive to flight speed, flight cost, the amount of energy the animal could carry and the spatial pattern of energy availability, but generally insensitive to total energy availability per se. Nevertheless, continental patterns in the bird-use days occurred principally in relation to wetland cover and agricultural habitat in the fall. Bird-use days were highest in both spring and fall in the Mississippi Alluvial Valley and along the coast and near-shore environments of South Carolina. Spatial sensitivity analyses suggested that locations nearer to migratory endpoints were less important to survivorship; for instance, removing energy from a 1,036 km2 stopover site at a time from the Atlantic Flyway suggested coastal areas between New Jersey and North Carolina, including Chesapeake Bay and the North Carolina piedmont, are
McGrath, Laura J.; van Riper, Charles
Executive Summary Neotropical migrant birds make choices about which habitats are most likely to provide successful foraging locations during migration, but little is known about how these birds recognize and process environmental clues that indicate the presence of prey species. Aspects of tree phenology, notably flowering of trees along the lower Colorado River corridor, coincide with the migratory stopovers of leaf-gleaning insectivorous songbirds and may be an important indicator of arthropod prey species availability. Shifting tree flowering and leaf flush during the spring migration period presents avian insectivores with an assortment of foraging opportunities. During two field seasons at Cibola National Wildlife Refuge in southwestern Arizona, we examined riparian tree species to test whether leaf-gleaning insectivorous birds are attracted to the flowering condition of trees in choosing foraging sites. We predicted that flowering trees would host more insect prey resources, would thus show increased visit rates, length of stays and attack ratios of migrant avian insectivores, and that those arthropods would be found in the stomach contents of the birds. Paired trees of honey mesquite (Prosopis glandulosa), displaying heavy and light degrees of flowering were observed to test these predictions. To test whether birds are tracking arthropods directly or are using flowers as a proximate cue, we removed flowers from selected trees and paired these treated trees with neighboring high flowering trees, which served as controls. Avian foraging behavior, avian diets, arthropods, and phenology data were collected at the same time to control for temporal differences in insect availability, plant phenology, and differences in stopover arrivals of birds. We documented five patterns from this study: 1) Higher abundance and richness of arthropods were found on honey mesquite trees with greater numbers of flowers. 2) Arthropod abundance and richness increased as flowering
Alexandr, Tarasyev; Alexandr, Tarasyev
In this article, we present a dynamic inter-regional model, that is based on the gravity approach to migration and describes in continuous time the labor force dynamics between a number of conjugate regions. Our modification of the gravity migration model allows to explain the migration processes and to display the impact of migration on the regional economic development both for regions of origin and attraction. The application of our model allows to trace the dependency between salaries levels, total workforce, the number of vacancies and the number unemployed people in simulated regions. Due to the gravity component in our model the accuracy of prediction for migration flows is limited by the distance range between analyzed regions, so this model is tested on a number of conjugate neighbor regions. Future studies will be aimed at development of a multi-level dynamic model, which allows to construct a forecast for unemployment and vacancies trends on the first modeling level and to use these identified parameters on the second level for describing dynamic trajectories of migration flows.
Full Text Available Collisions between aircraft and birds, so-called "bird strikes," can result in serious damage to aircraft and even in the loss of lives. Information about the distribution of birds in the air and on the ground can be used to reduce the risk of bird strikes and their impact on operations en route and in and around air fields. Although a wealth of bird distribution and density data is collected by numerous organizations, these data are not readily available nor interpretable by aviation. This paper presents two national efforts, one in the Netherlands and one in the United States, to develop bird avoidance nodels for aviation. These models integrate data and expert knowledge on bird distributions and migratory behavior to provide hazard maps in the form of GIS-enabled Web services. Both models are in operational use for flight planning and flight alteration and for airfield and airfield vicinity management. These models and their presentation on the Internet are examples of the type of service that would be very useful in other fields interested in species distribution and movement information, such as conservation, disease transmission and prevention, or assessment and mitigation of anthropogenic risks to nature. We expect that developments in cyber-technology, a transition toward an open source philosophy, and higher demand for accessible biological data will result in an increase in the number of biological information systems available on the Internet.
A 6-megawatt, 11 turbine wind power development was constructed by Green Mountain Power Corporation in Searsburg, southern Vermont, in 1996. To determine whether birds were impacted, a series of modified BA (Before, After) studies was conducted before construction (1993-1996), during (1996), and after (1997) construction on the project site. The studies were designed to monitor changes in breeding bird community (species composition and abundance) on the site, examine the behavior and numbers of songbirds migrating at night over the site and hawks migrating over the site in daylight, and search for carcasses of birds that might have collided with the turbines.
Hoey, Robert G
A series of radio-controlled glider models was constructed by duplicating the aerodynamic shape of soaring birds (raven, turkey vulture, seagull and pelican). Controlled tests were conducted to determine the level of longitudinal and lateral-directional static stability, and to identify the characteristics that allowed flight without a vertical tail. The use of tail-tilt for controlling small bank-angle changes, as observed in soaring birds, was verified. Subsequent tests, using wing-tip ailerons, inferred that birds use a three-dimensional flow pattern around the wing tip (wing tip vortices) to control adverse yaw and to create a small amount of forward thrust in gliding flight.
Liechti, F.; Dokter, A.; Shamoun, J.; van Gasteren, H.; Holleman, I.
For military training flights bird strikes en route are still a severe problem. To reduce collisions an international project has been launched by the European Space agency (ESA), aiming 1) for a compilation of information on current bird movements by various sensors, 2) to combine them in a single
Zhukova, O.M.; Shiryaeva, N.M.; Myshkina, M.K.; Shagalova, Eh.D.; Denisova, V.V.; Skurat, V.V.
It was propose the model of radionuclide migration in river system based on principle of the compartmental model at hydraulically stationary and chemically equilibrium conditions of interaction of radionuclides in system water-dredge, water-sediments. Different conditions of radioactive contamination entry in river system were considered. The model was verified on the data of radiation monitoring of Iput' river
Douglas S. MASSEY
Full Text Available Demographers have yet to develop a suitable integrated model of international migration and consequently have been very poor at forecasting immigration. This paper outlines the basic elements of an integrated model and surveys recent history to suggest the key challenges to model construction. A comprehensive theory must explain the structural forces that create a supply of people prone to migrate internationally, the structural origins of labour demand in receiving countries, the motivations of those who respond to these forces by choosing to migrate internationally, the growth and structure of transnational networks that arise to support international movement, the behaviour states in response to immigrant flows, and the influence of state actions on the behaviour of migrants. Recent history suggests that a good model needs to respect the salience of markets, recognize the circularity of migrant flows, appreciate the power of feedback effects, and be alert unanticipated consequences of policy actions.
.... Birding is one of the fastest growing recreational activities in the United States. The economic impacts associated with this recreational activity on local communities have only recently been recognized...
Cheung, H.; Fuller, M.E.; Gaffney, E.S.
When canisters containing radwastes are emplaced in a repository the heat produced by the decaying radwaste will cause moderate thermal gradients to develop which will cause the brine present in a halite medium (salt deposits) to accumulate around the canister. Four different models of the migration process have been reviewed to determine their suitability as a working model. One model predicts that inclusions smaller than 0.1 mm dimension probably will not migrate. The other models do not consider size as a factor. Thermal diffusion (Soret effect) is considered insignificant in three models, while in the fourth model it is added to the concentration diffusion term. The following conclusions can be made: Temperature is the most significant parameter in all models and must be known as a function of time, and distance from the canister. All four models predict about the same migration velocity for it is a given set of conditions; for 100 0 C and 1 0 C/cm thermal gradient, it is 3.0, 4.8, 5.6 and 6.4 mm/y. Diffusion of ions through the brine inclusions is the rate controlling mechanism. The difference between the thermal gradients in the liquid and in the solid should always be considered and is a function of droplet shape. The model based upon work by Nernst is easiest to use, but it predicts the lowest migration rate. The maximum volume of pure brine accumulated at the canister surface would be less than 20-40 liters in 50 years, for a canister initial thermal power of 3.5 kW.Bitterns would migrate proportionately less volume. A computer code, BRINE, was developed to make these calculations by means of any of the four models
Peterjohn, Bruce G.
communities. This project involved parks within three NPS Inventory and Monitoring Program (I&M) networks, Mid-Atlantic, National Capital, and Eastern Rivers and Mountains. Five parks were selected for the initial focus of this study, all of which maintain open landscapes for interpreting historic events. Most parks were selected because they contain the most extensive grassland habitats within their networks, although some also support shrubby successional habitats. The five parks included in this study are Antietam National Battlefield, Fort Necessity National Battlefield, Gettysburg National Battlefield, Manassas National Battlefield, and Monocacy National Battlefield. This conceptual ecological model is one product of this project. The information presented below allows NPS network coordinators to understand which factors should be considered when making decisions concerning shrubland management within their networks. This model provides park resource managers with information on shrubland ecology in the Mid-Atlantic Region, the ecological requirements of shrubland birds likely to occur in their parks, and management issues influencing whether significant breeding populations can occupy shrublands created and maintained in the parks. Resource managers can then make informed decisions concerning their ability to create and maintain shrubland habitats. The emphasis of this conceptual model is restricted to management of breeding shrubland birds. Additional species occur during migration and winter, and habitat requirements of shrubland birds during nonbreeding seasons may differ from those described for the breeding season.
Lucas, Manuela de; Janss, Guyonne, F.E.; Ferrer, Miguel
The interaction between birds and wind turbines is an important factor to consider when a wind farm is constructed. A wind farm and two control areas were studied in Tarifa (Andalusia Province, southern Spain, 30STF590000–30STE610950).Variables were studied along linear transects in each area and observations of flight were also recorded from fixed points in the wind farm. The main purpose of our research was to determine the impact and the degree of flight behavioural change in birds flights...
Navarro, E.; Roldan, C.; Cervera, J.; Ferrero, J.L.
The radionuclides 137 Cs, 134 Cs and 90 Sr have been measured in edible tissues and bones of migratory birds (song-thrushes, Turdus philomelos) from central and northern Europe and captured in the Comunidad Valenciana, Spain in the 1994 autumn-winter season. Eight years after the Chernobyl accident, extensive agricultural lands in Europe are still contaminated and this study shows that there was a transfer of radioactive isotopes to the captured migratory song-thrushes. The whole-body dose commitment to humans consuming these birds is estimated
Tarle, Victoria; Gauquelin, Estelle; Vedula, S. R. K.; D'Alessandro, Joseph; Lim, C. T.; Ladoux, Benoit; Gov, Nir S.
Monolayer expansion has generated great interest as a model system to study collective cell migration. During such an expansion the culture front often develops ‘fingers’, which we have recently modeled using a proposed feedback between the curvature of the monolayer’s leading edge and the outward motility of the edge cells. We show that this model is able to explain the puzzling observed increase of collective cellular migration speed of a monolayer expanding into thin stripes, as well as describe the behavior within different confining geometries that were recently observed in experiments. These comparisons give support to the model and emphasize the role played by the edge cells and the edge shape during collective cell motion.
Nishiyama, A.; Tokihiro, T.; Badoual, M.; Grammaticos, B.
We present a model which aims at describing the morphology of colonies of Proteus mirabilis and Bacillus subtilis. Our model is based on a cellular automaton which is obtained by the adequate discretisation of a diffusion-like equation, describing the migration of the bacteria, to which we have added rules simulating the consolidation process. Our basic assumption, following the findings of the group of Chuo University, is that the migration and consolidation processes are controlled by the local density of the bacteria. We show that it is possible within our model to reproduce the morphological diagrams of both bacteria species. Moreover, we model some detailed experiments done by the Chuo University group, obtaining a fine agreement.
Lameris, T.K.; Scholten, Ilse; Bauer, S.; Cobben, M.M.P.; Ens, B.J.; Nolet, B.A.
Arctic amplification, the accelerated climate warming in the polar regions, is causing a more rapid advancement of the onset of spring in the Arctic than in temperate regions. Consequently, the arrival of many migratory birds in the Arctic is thought to become increasingly mismatched with the onset
McWilliams, S.R.; Guglielmo, C.; Pierce, B.; Klaassen, M.R.J.
Unlike exercising mammals, migratory birds fuel very high intensity exercise (e.g., flight) with fatty acids delivered from the adipose tissue to the working muscles by the circulatory system. Given the primary importance of fatty acids for fueling intense exercise, we discuss the likely limiting
Lerman, Susannah B.; Nislow, Keith H.; Nowak, David J.; DeStefano, Stephen; King, David I.; Jones-Farrand, D. Todd
The alteration of forest cover and the replacement of native vegetation with buildings, roads, exotic vegetation, and other urban features pose one of the greatest threats to global biodiversity. As more land becomes slated for urban development, identifying effective urban forest wildlife management tools becomes paramount to ensure the urban forest provides habitat to sustain bird and other wildlife populations. The primary goal of this study was to integrate wildlife suitability indices to an existing national urban forest assessment tool, i-Tree. We quantified available habitat characteristics of urban forests for ten northeastern U.S. cities, and summarized bird habitat relationships from the literature in terms of variables that were represented in the i-Tree datasets. With these data, we generated habitat suitability equations for nine bird species representing a range of life history traits and conservation status that predicts the habitat suitability based on i-Tree data. We applied these equations to the urban forest datasets to calculate the overall habitat suitability for each city and the habitat suitability for different types of land-use (e.g., residential, commercial, parkland) for each bird species. The proposed habitat models will help guide wildlife managers, urban planners, and landscape designers who require specific information such as desirable habitat conditions within an urban management project to help improve the suitability of urban forests for birds.
Bartholdy, Jesper; Ernstsen, Verner Brandbyge; Flemming, Burg W
and width) of naturally-packed bed material on the bedform lee side, qb(crest). The model is simple, built on a rational description of simplified sediment mechanics, and its calibration constant can be explained in accordance with estimated values of the physical constants on which it is based. Predicted......A model linking subaqueous dune migration to the effective (grain related) shear stress is calibrated by means of flume data for bedform dimensions and migration rates. The effective shear stress is calculated on the basis of a new method assuming a near-bed layer above the mean bed level in which...... the current velocity accelerates towards the bedform crest. As a consequence, the effective bed shear stress corresponds to the shear stress acting directly on top of the bedform. The model operates with the critical Shields stress as a function of grain size, and predicts the deposition (volume per unit time...
Vardanis, Yannis; Nilsson, Jan-Ake; Klaassen, Raymond H. G.; Strandberg, Roine; Alerstam, Thomas
As the evolutionary responses to environmental change depend on selection acting on individual differences, disentangling within- and between-individual variation becomes imperative. In animal migration research, multiyear tracks are thus needed to estimate the individual consistency of phenotypic
Purpose of this research is to state preschool students' mental model about birds by analyzing their drawing. This is a hermeneutical phenomenology research that is based on social constructivist philosophy. Typical case sampling method has used in order to form working group of this research. Working group consisting of 325 children who are in…
Using data primarily from the Honolulu Destination Survey (HDS), which is part of the Philippine Migration Study (a study of a migration system that has its origins in Ilocos Norte, a largely rural province in the Philippines), the author examines migration decision making among Philippine immigrants in Hawaii. The HDS, conducted in 1981, interviewed 1484 residents of Honolulu who immigrated from the Ilocos Region after the US immigration law was liberalized in 1965. Results from the Philippine Migration Study (PMS) survey show that of those who did not have any intentions to move within 2 years in 1980, 88% did not move between 1980 and 1982. Of those who said they were certain to move within 2 years, 54% actually moved, while only 36% who were fairly certain and 31% who were uncertain moved. Virtually all of those who actually moved to Hawaii from 1980-1982 had intended to move to Hawaii in 1980. It thus appears that most migration is planned well in advance. For those who have already migrated, their behavior in the destination is influenced by their expectations about future migration. An estimated 20-38.7% of legal immigrants to the US from the Philippines in 1971 had emigrated as of January 1979. 49% of HDS respondents said that they did not intend to move out of Hawaii any time in the future. Among those who intend to move in the future, 69% want to return to Ilocos and 26% intend to move to the US mainland. 40% want to leave Hawaii for economic reasons and 27% for affiliation purposes. The value expectancy framework used in the PMS measures expectations of achieving one's most important goals in alternative locations. The analysis employs both binomial and multinomial logit analysis to identify significant determinants of future migration intentions. The 7 conceptual categories are: wealth, status, comfort, stimulation, autonomy, affiliation, and morality. 90% consider "having a peaceful life" followed by "getting ahead in the world" the most important
Gohli, J.; Lifjeld, J. T.; Albrecht, Tomáš
Roč. 28, č. 1 (2016), s. 42-52 ISSN 0394-9370 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GAP506/12/2472 Institutional support: RVO:68081766 Keywords : autosomes * female promiscuity * introns * seasonal migration * Z chromosome Subject RIV: EG - Zoology Impact factor: 1.582, year: 2016
Prestack depth migration in anisotropic media, especially those that exhibit tilt, can be costly using reverse time migration (RTM). We present two-way spectral extrapolation of prestack exploding reflector modeling and migration (PERM) in acoustic transversely isotropic (TI) media. We construct systematic ways to evaluate phase angles and phase velocities in dip oriented TI (DTI), vertical TI (VTI) and tilted TI (TTI) media. Migration results from the Marmousi VTI model and the BP2007 TTI model show the feasibility of our approach.
Sunny, Faby; Chopra, Manish; Oza, R.B.
The hydrogeological modelling for migration of radionuclides basically involves modelling of groundwater flow and contaminant transport through the groundwater. The water that occurs below the land surface or within the lithosphere is called groundwater. The groundwater constitutes about 4 % of the total water on the earth and about 30 % of freshwater on the earth. Groundwater models describe groundwater flow and contaminant transport processes using mathematical equations that are based on certain simplifying assumptions. These assumptions typically involve the direction of flow, geometry of the aquifer, the heterogeneity or anisotropy of sediments or bedrock within the aquifer, the contaminant transport mechanisms and chemical reactions. Because of the simplifying assumptions and the many uncertainties in the values of data, a model must be viewed as an approximation and not an exact duplication of field conditions. However, these models are useful investigation tool for a number of applications such as prediction of the possible fate and migration of contaminants for risk evaluation; tracking the possible pathway of groundwater contamination; evaluation of design of hydraulic containment and pump-and-treat systems; design of groundwater monitoring networks; evaluation of regional groundwater resources and prediction of the effect of future groundwater withdrawals on groundwater levels
Andersson, G.; Rasmusson, A.; Neretnieks, I.
The near field model describes the transport of substances dissolved in the groundwater to and from a canister in which radioactive materials are stored. The migration of substances that can cause corrosion (oxidants) of the canister is described by means of a mathematical model. The model takes into account diffusion through the buffer material and water flow in the rock fractures. Two distinct transport resistances can be distinguished in this transport process. The first consists of the diffusion resistance in the buffer material and the second arises due to diffusion resistance in the flowing water in the thin fractures in the rock. The model can also be used to calculate the non-steady-state phase of the inward or outward transport of dissolved species. The model has also been used to calculate how a redox front caused by radiolytically produced oxidants moves out through the clay and into the rock. It has been shown that the migration rate of the redox front can be calculated with good accuracy by means of simple mass balance computations. The transport of radiolytically formed hydrogen away from the fuel has been calculated. When dissolved in the water, hydrogen can be transported through the clay barrier by means of diffusion without the partial pressure of the hydrogen exceeding the hydrostatic pressure. (author)
Full Text Available Observations on the autumn migration of raptors were carried out on the Calabrian Appennines in the area where the Italian peninsula is only 30 km wide. We used three different watch points at the same time between 24 August and 12 September 2005 and 2006. We observed 4,842 raptors in 2005 and 5,324 in 2006; most of these were Honey Buzzards, Black Kites, Marsh Harriers and Montagu’s Harriers.
Camacho Pérez, Maria del Carmen
The benchmark of this paper is the Fujita and Thisse (2002) core-periphery model, which adds a R&D sector with skilled labor to create new varieties for the modern sector. The number of R&D firms increases not only with the number of existing patents and knowledge spillovers but also with the number of skilled workers who can migrate and choose theregion offering the better lifetime salary.The main objective of the present work is to analyse the long-term consequences of the choice of the mig...
Haest, Birgen; Hüppop, Ommo; Bairlein, Franz
Many migrant bird species that breed in the Northern Hemisphere show advancement in spring arrival dates. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index is one of the climatic variables that have been most often investigated and shown to be correlated with these changes in spring arrival. Although the NAO is often claimed to be a good predictor or even to have a marked effect on interannual changes in spring migration phenology of Northern Hemisphere breeding birds, the results on relations between spring migration phenology and NAO show a large variety, ranging from no, over weak, to a strong association. Several factors, such as geographic location, migration phase, and the NAO index time window, have been suggested to partly explain these observed differences in association. A combination of a literature meta-analysis, and a meta-analysis and sliding time window analysis of a dataset of 23 short- and long-distance migrants from the constant-effort trapping garden at Helgoland, Germany, however, paints a completely different picture. We found a statistically significant overall effect size of the NAO on spring migration phenology (coefficient = -0.14, SE = 0.054), but this on average only explains 0%-6% of the variance in spring migration phenology across all species. As such, the value and biological meaning of the NAO as a general predictor or explanatory variable for climate change effects on migration phenology of birds, seems highly questionable. We found little to no definite support for previously suggested factors, such as geographic location, migration phenology phase, or the NAO time window, to explain the heterogeneity in correlation differences. We, however, did find compelling evidence that the lack of accounting for trends in both time series has led to strongly inflated (spurious) correlations in many studies (coefficient = -0.13, SE = 0.019). © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Willekens, F.J.; White, Michael J.
This chapter is an introduction to the study of migration flows. It starts with a review of major definition and measurement issues. Comparative studies of migration are particularly difficult because different countries define migration differently and measurement methods are not harmonized.
Brezis, Elise S.; Soueri, Ariel
Globalization has led to a vast flow of migration of workers but also of students. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the migration of individuals encompassing decisions already at the level of education. We develop a unified brain drain model that incorporates the decisions of an individual vis - à - vis both education and migration. In the empirical part, this paper addresses international flows of migration within the EU and presents strong evidence of concentration of students in cou...
The study of marine birds in the northern part of Lebanon recorded 2681 individuals, distributed over 86 species. Among them 35 are foreshore species, 18 coastal, 6 maritime, 9 ducks, 6 herons, 9 various saltwater related species and 3 terrestrial. The highest density is shown by the yellow-legged Gull Larus michahellis and common blackheaded gull Chroicocephalus ridibundus. The globally vulnerable yelkouan shearwater Puffinus yelkouan, an endemic species to the Mediterranean, appears on the 9th rank in the classification of seabird species from the more to the least abundant, highlighting as such, beside other 6 globally near threatened species, the role that Lebanon can play in improving the conservation status of these species. Regarding the phenological status of species, 48 are passage migrant/winter visitors, 31 passage migrants, 5 winter visitors and 2 vagrant species. The surveys revealed that three coastal seabird species (Armenian gull Larus armenicus, slender-billed gull Chroicocephalus genei and sandwich tern Thalasseus sandvicensis) and one ubiquist species (Eurasian Golden Plover Pluvialis apricaria) are not rare as it was believed in previous papers but fairly common winter visitors. The study identified the yellow-legged gull breeding population to be 160 couples, and confirmed the second and third breeding records of the little ringed plover Charadrius dubius.(author)
Insecticide usage in the United States is ubiquitous in urban, suburban, and rural environments. In evaluating data for an insecticide registration application and for registration review, scientists at the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) assess the fate of the insecticide and the risk the insecticide poses to the environment and non-target wildlife. At the present time, current USEPA risk assessments do not include population-level endpoints. In this paper, we present a new mechanistic model, which allows risk assessors to estimate the effects of insecticide exposure on the survival and seasonal productivity of birds known to use agricultural fields during their breeding season. The new model was created from two existing USEPA avian risk assessment models, the Terrestrial Investigation Model (TIM v.3.0) and the Markov Chain Nest Productivity model (MCnest). The integrated TIM/MCnest model has been applied to assess the relative risk of 12 insecticides used to control corn pests on a suite of 31 avian species known to use cornfields in midwestern agroecosystems. The 12 insecticides that were assessed in this study are all used to treat major pests of corn (corn root worm borer, cutworm, and armyworm). After running the integrated TIM/MCnest model, we found extensive differences in risk to birds among insecticides, with chlorpyrifos and malathion (organophosphates) generally posing the greatest risk, and bifenthrin and ë-cyhalothrin (
M. F. Burger; D. J. Adams; T. Post; L. Sommers; B. Swift
The New York State Bird Conservation Area (BCA) Program, modeled after the National Audubon Society?s Important Bird Areas Program, is based on legislation signed by Governor Pataki in 1997. New York is the first state in the nation to enact such a program. The BCA Program seeks to provide a comprehensive, ecosystem approach to conserving birds and their habitats on...
England, Marion E; Phipps, Paul; Medlock, Jolyon M; Atkinson, Peter M; Atkinson, Barry; Hewson, Roger; Gale, Paul
Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever virus (CCHFV) is a zoonotic virus transmitted by Hyalomma ticks, the immature stages of which may be carried by migratory birds. In this study, a total of 12 Hyalomma ticks were recovered from five of 228 migratory birds trapped in Spring, 2012 in southern Spain along the East Atlantic flyway. All collected ticks tested negative for CCHFV. While most birds had zero Hyalomma ticks, two individuals had four and five ticks each and the statistical distribution of Hyalomma tick counts per bird is over-dispersed compared to the Poisson distribution, demonstrating the need for intensive sampling studies to avoid underestimating the total number of ticks. Rates of tick exchange on migratory birds during their northwards migration will affect the probability that a Hyalomma tick entering Great Britain is positive for CCHFV. Drawing on published data, evidence is presented that the latitude of a European country affects the probability of entry of Hyalomma ticks on wild birds. Further data on Hyalomma infestation rates and tick exchange rates are required along the East Atlantic flyway to further our understanding of the origin of Hyalomma ticks (i.e., Africa or southern Europe) and hence the probability of entry of CCHFV into GB. © 2016 The Society for Vector Ecology.
Westbrook, J. K.; Nagoshi, R. N.; Meagher, R. L.; Fleischer, S. J.; Jairam, S.
Fall armyworm, Spodoptera frugiperda (J.E. Smith), is a highly mobile insect pest of a wide range of host crops. However, this pest of tropical origin cannot survive extended periods of freezing temperature but must migrate northward each spring if it is to re-infest cropping areas in temperate regions. The northward limit of the winter-breeding region for North America extends to southern regions of Texas and Florida, but infestations are regularly reported as far north as Québec and Ontario provinces in Canada by the end of summer. Recent genetic analyses have characterized migratory pathways from these winter-breeding regions, but knowledge is lacking on the atmosphere's role in influencing the timing, distance, and direction of migratory flights. The Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model was used to simulate migratory flight of fall armyworm moths from distinct winter-breeding source areas. Model simulations identified regions of dominant immigration from the Florida and Texas source areas and overlapping immigrant populations in the Alabama-Georgia and Pennsylvania-Mid-Atlantic regions. This simulated migratory pattern corroborates a previous migratory map based on the distribution of fall armyworm haplotype profiles. We found a significant regression between the simulated first week of moth immigration and first week of moth capture (for locations which captured ≥10 moths), which on average indicated that the model simulated first immigration 2 weeks before first captures in pheromone traps. The results contribute to knowledge of fall armyworm population ecology on a continental scale and will aid in the prediction and interpretation of inter-annual variability of insect migration patterns including those in response to climatic change and adoption rates of transgenic cultivars.
Smith, James A.
The availability of satellite remote sensing observations at multiple spatial and temporal scales, coupled with advances in climate modeling and information technologies offer new opportunities for the application of mechanistic models to predict how continental scale bird migration patterns may change in response to environmental change. In earlier studies, we explored the phenotypic plasticity of a migratory population of Pectoral sandpipers by simulating the movement patterns of an ensemble of 10,000 individual birds in response to changes in stopover locations as an indicator of the impacts of wetland loss and inter-annual variability on the fitness of migratory shorebirds. We used an individual based, biophysical migration model, driven by remotely sensed land surface data, climate data, and biological field data. Mean stop-over durations and stop-over frequency with latitude predicted from our model for nominal cases were consistent with results reported in the literature and available field data. In this study, we take advantage of new computing capabilities enabled by recent GP-GPU computing paradigms and commodity hardware (general purchase computing on graphics processing units). Several aspects of our individual based (agent modeling) approach lend themselves well to GP-GPU computing. We have been able to allocate compute-intensive tasks to the graphics processing units, and now simulate ensembles of 400,000 birds at varying spatial resolutions along the central North American flyway. We are incorporating additional, species specific, mechanistic processes to better reflect the processes underlying bird phenotypic plasticity responses to different climate change scenarios in the central U.S.
Mead, Reginald; Paxton, John; Sojda, Richard S.; Swayne, David A.; Yang, Wanhong; Voinov, A.A.; Rizzoli, A.; Filatova, T.
Radar ornithology has provided tools for studying the movement of birds, especially related to migration. Researchers have presented qualitative evidence suggesting that birds, or at least migration events, can be identified using large broad scale radars such as the WSR-88D used in the NEXRAD weather surveillance system. This is potentially a boon for ornithologists because such data cover a large portion of the United States, are constantly being produced, are freely available, and have been archived since the early 1990s. A major obstacle to this research, however, has been that identifying birds in NEXRAD data has required a trained technician to manually inspect a graphically rendered radar sweep. A single site completes one volume scan every five to ten minutes, producing over 52,000 volume scans in one year. This is an immense amount of data, and manual classification is infeasible. We have developed a system that identifies biological echoes using machine learning techniques. This approach begins with training data using scans that have been classified by experts, or uses bird data collected in the field. The data are preprocessed to ensure quality and to emphasize relevant features. A classifier is then trained using this data and cross validation is used to measure performance. We compared neural networks, naive Bayes, and k-nearest neighbor classifiers. Empirical evidence is provided showing that this system can achieve classification accuracies in the 80th to 90th percentile. We propose to apply these methods to studying bird migration phenology and how it is affected by climate variability and change over multiple temporal scales.
Abstract Background Neuronal migration, the process by which neurons migrate from their place of origin to their final position in the brain, is a central process for normal brain development and function. Advances in experimental techniques have revealed much about many of the molecular components involved in this process. Notwithstanding these advances, how the molecular machinery works together to govern the migration process has yet to be fully understood. Here we present a computational model of neuronal migration, in which four key molecular entities, Lis1, DCX, Reelin and GABA, form a molecular program that mediates the migration process. Results The model simulated the dynamic migration process, consistent with in-vivo observations of morphological, cellular and population-level phenomena. Specifically, the model reproduced migration phases, cellular dynamics and population distributions that concur with experimental observations in normal neuronal development. We tested the model under reduced activity of Lis1 and DCX and found an aberrant development similar to observations in Lis1 and DCX silencing expression experiments. Analysis of the model gave rise to unforeseen insights that could guide future experimental study. Specifically: (1) the model revealed the possibility that under conditions of Lis1 reduced expression, neurons experience an oscillatory neuron-glial association prior to the multipolar stage; and (2) we hypothesized that observed morphology variations in rats and mice may be explained by a single difference in the way that Lis1 and DCX stimulate bipolar motility. From this we make the following predictions: (1) under reduced Lis1 and enhanced DCX expression, we predict a reduced bipolar migration in rats, and (2) under enhanced DCX expression in mice we predict a normal or a higher bipolar migration. Conclusions We present here a system-wide computational model of neuronal migration that integrates theory and data within a precise
Full Text Available Abstract Background Neuronal migration, the process by which neurons migrate from their place of origin to their final position in the brain, is a central process for normal brain development and function. Advances in experimental techniques have revealed much about many of the molecular components involved in this process. Notwithstanding these advances, how the molecular machinery works together to govern the migration process has yet to be fully understood. Here we present a computational model of neuronal migration, in which four key molecular entities, Lis1, DCX, Reelin and GABA, form a molecular program that mediates the migration process. Results The model simulated the dynamic migration process, consistent with in-vivo observations of morphological, cellular and population-level phenomena. Specifically, the model reproduced migration phases, cellular dynamics and population distributions that concur with experimental observations in normal neuronal development. We tested the model under reduced activity of Lis1 and DCX and found an aberrant development similar to observations in Lis1 and DCX silencing expression experiments. Analysis of the model gave rise to unforeseen insights that could guide future experimental study. Specifically: (1 the model revealed the possibility that under conditions of Lis1 reduced expression, neurons experience an oscillatory neuron-glial association prior to the multipolar stage; and (2 we hypothesized that observed morphology variations in rats and mice may be explained by a single difference in the way that Lis1 and DCX stimulate bipolar motility. From this we make the following predictions: (1 under reduced Lis1 and enhanced DCX expression, we predict a reduced bipolar migration in rats, and (2 under enhanced DCX expression in mice we predict a normal or a higher bipolar migration. Conclusions We present here a system-wide computational model of neuronal migration that integrates theory and data within a
Entwisle, Barbara; Williams, Nathalie E.; Verdery, Ashton M.; Rindfuss, Ronald R.; Walsh, Stephen J.; Malanson, George P.; Mucha, Peter J.; Frizzelle, Brian G.; McDaniel, Philip M.; Yao, Xiaozheng; Heumann, Benjamin W.; Prasartkul, Pramote; Sawangdee, Yothin; Jampaklay, Aree
This is a study of migration responses to climate shocks. We construct an agent-based model that incorporates dynamic linkages between demographic behaviors, such as migration, marriage, and births, and agriculture and land use, which depend on rainfall patterns. The rules and parameterization of our model are empirically derived from qualitative and quantitative analyses of a well-studied demographic field site, Nang Rong district, Northeast Thailand. With this model, we simulate patterns of migration under four weather regimes in a rice economy: 1) a reference, ‘normal’ scenario; 2) seven years of unusually wet weather; 3) seven years of unusually dry weather; and 4) seven years of extremely variable weather. Results show relatively small impacts on migration. Experiments with the model show that existing high migration rates and strong selection factors, which are unaffected by climate change, are likely responsible for the weak migration response. PMID:27594725
This study combines data on changes in cardiovascular variables with body mass (Mb) and with exercise intensity to model the oxygen supply available to birds during flight. Its main purpose is to provide a framework for identifying the factors involved in limiting aerobic power input to birds during flight and to suggest which cardiovascular variables are the most likely to have been influenced by natural selection when considering both allometric and adaptive variation. It is argued that natural selection has acted on heart rate (fh) and cardiac stroke volume (Vs), so that the difference in the arteriovenous oxygen content (CaO2-Cv¯O2) in birds, both at rest and during flight, is independent of Mb. Therefore, the Mb exponent for oxygen consumption (V(dot)O2) during flight can be estimated from measurements of heart rate and stroke volume. Stroke volume is likely to be directly proportional to heart mass (Mh) and, using empirical data, values for the Mb coefficients and exponents of various cardiovascular variables are estimated. It is concluded that, as found for mammals, fh is the main adaptive variable when considering allometric variation, although Mh also shows a slight scaling effect. Relative Mh is likely to be the most important when considering adaptive specialisations. The Fick equation may be represented as: (V(dot)O2)Mbz = (fh)Mbw x (Vs)Mbx x (CaO2 - Cv¯O2)Mby , where w, x, y, z are the body mass exponents for each variable and the terms in parentheses represent the Mb coefficients. Utilising this formula and data from the literature, the scaling of minimum V(dot)O2 during flight for bird species with a 'high aerobic capacity' (excluding hummingbirds) is calculated to be: 166Mb0.77±0.09 = 574Mb-0.19±0.02 x 3.48Mb0.96±0.02 x 0.083Mb0.00±0.05 , and for hummingbirds (considered separately owing to their unique wing kinematics) it is: 314Mb0.90±0.22 = 617Mb-0.10±0.06 x 6.13Mb1.00±0.11 x 0.083Mb0.00±0.05 . These results are largely dependent on the
Morton, Timothy D.; Johnson, John Asher
We investigate the current sample of exoplanet spin-orbit measurements to determine whether a dominant planet migration channel can be identified, and at what confidence. We use the predictions of Kozai migration plus tidal friction and planet-planet scattering as our misalignment models, and we allow for a fraction of intrinsically aligned systems, explainable by disk migration. Bayesian model comparison demonstrates that the current sample of 32 spin-orbit measurements strongly favors a two-mode migration scenario combining planet-planet scattering and disk migration over a single-mode Kozai migration scenario. Our analysis indicates that between 34% and 76% of close-in planets (95% confidence) migrated via planet-planet scattering. Separately analyzing the subsample of 12 stars with T eff >6250 K-which Winn et al. predict to be the only type of stars to maintain their primordial misalignments-we find that the data favor a single-mode scattering model over Kozai with 85% confidence. We also assess the number of additional hot star spin-orbit measurements that will likely be necessary to provide a more confident model selection, finding that an additional 20-30 measurement has a >50% chance of resulting in a 95% confident model selection, if the current model selection is correct. While we test only the predictions of particular Kozai and scattering migration models in this work, our methods may be used to test the predictions of any other spin-orbit misaligning mechanism.
Nolet, B.A.; Gyimesi, A.; Klaassen, R.H.G.
1. The carrying capacity of a site for migratory water birds, expressed in bird-days, can be of particular conservation value. Several attempts have been made to model this carrying capacity using ideal free distribution models such as, for instance, depletion models, in which the distribution is
The user's guide of the Arthur D. Little Polymer Migration Estimation Model (AMEM) provides the information on how the model estimates the fraction of a chemical additive that diffuses through polymeric matrices.
The method of logistic regression was used to model the observed geographical distribution patterns of bird species in Swaziland in relation to a set of environmental variables. Reporting rates derived from bird atlas data are used as an index of population densities. This is justified in part by the success of the modelling ...
Fitzgerald, Jane A.; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Dettmers, Randy; Jones, Tim; Rustay, Christopher; Ruth, Janet M.; Thompson, Frank R.; Will, Tom; Millspaugh, Joshua J.; Thompson, Frank R.
Partners in Flight (PIF), a public–private coalition for the conservation of land birds, has developed one of four international bird conservation plans recognized under the auspices of the North American Bird Conservation Initiative (NABCI). Partners in Flight prioritized species most in need of conservation attention and set range-wide population goals for 448 species of terrestrial birds. Partnerships are now tasked with developing spatially explicit estimates of the distribution, and abundance of priority species across large ecoregions and identifying habitat acreages needed to support populations at prescribed levels. The PIF Five Elements process of conservation design identifies five steps needed to implement all bird conservation at the ecoregional scale. Habitat assessment and landscape characterization describe the current amounts of different habitat types and summarize patch characteristics, and landscape configurations that define the ability of a landscape to sustain healthy bird populations and are a valuable first step to describing the planning area before pursuing more complex species-specific models. Spatially linked database models, landscape-scale habitat suitability models, and statistical models are viable alternatives for predicting habitat suitability or bird abundance across large planning areas to help assess conservation opportunities, design landscapes to meet population objectives, and monitor change in habitat suitability or bird numbers over time.Bird conservation in the United States is a good example of the use of models in large-scale wildlife conservation planning because of its geographic extent, focus on multiple species, involvement of multiple partners, and use of simple to complex models. We provide some background on the recent development of bird conservation initiatives in the United States and the approaches used for regional conservation assessment and planning. We focus on approaches being used for landscape
Kundas, S.P.; Gishkelyuk, I.A.; Khil'ko, O.S.
The theoretical foundations for modeling of the contaminants migration in natural disperses media taking into account interconnected heat and moisture transport are developed. The calculation of mass transfer parameters based on adsorption isotherms of water and thermodynamic equations in the developed mathematical models. The artificial neural networks use to predict migration of contaminants in natural disperse media is proposed. The developed software package is presented and results of practical application of models and software are discussed. (authors)
Basir, Hadi Mahdavi; Javaherian, Abdolrahim; Shomali, Zaher Hossein; Firouz-Abadi, Roohollah Dehghani; Gholamy, Shaban Ali
Imaging is a key step in seismic data processing. To date, a myriad of advanced pre-stack depth migration approaches have been developed; however, reverse time migration (RTM) is still considered as the high-end imaging algorithm. The main limitations associated with the performance cost of reverse time migration are the intensive computation of the forward and backward simulations, time consumption, and memory allocation related to imaging condition. Based on the reduced order modeling, we proposed an algorithm, which can be adapted to all the aforementioned factors. Our proposed method benefit from Krylov subspaces method to compute certain mode shapes of the velocity model computed by as an orthogonal base of reduced order modeling. Reverse time migration by reduced order modeling is helpful concerning the highly parallel computation and strongly reduces the memory requirement of reverse time migration. The synthetic model results showed that suggested method can decrease the computational costs of reverse time migration by several orders of magnitudes, compared with reverse time migration by finite element method.
De Carvalho, N. V.; Ratcliffe, J. G.; Chen, B. Y.; Pinho, S. T.; Baiz, P. M.; Tay, T. E.
An approach was proposed and assessed for the high-fidelity modeling of progressive damage and failure in composite materials. It combines the Floating Node Method (FNM) and the Virtual Crack Closure Technique (VCCT) to represent multiple interacting failure mechanisms in a mesh-independent fashion. Delamination, matrix cracking, and migration were captured failure and migration criteria based on fracture mechanics. Quasi-static and fatigue loading were modeled within the same overall framework. The methodology proposed was illustrated by simulating the delamination migration test, showing good agreement with the available experimental data.
Rose, L.M.; Herrmannsdoerfer, M.; Mazanek, S.; Van Gorp, P.M.E.; Buchwald, S.; Horn, T.; Kalnina, E.; Koch, A.; Lano, K.; Schätz, B.; Wimmer, M.
We describe the results of the Transformation Tool Contest 2010 workshop, in which nine graph and model transformation tools were compared for specifying model migration. The model migration problem—migration of UML activity diagrams from version 1.4 to version 2.2—is non-trivial and practically
Bazzi, Gaia; Podofillini, Stefano; Gatti, Emanuele; Gianfranceschi, Luca; Cecere, Jacopo G; Spina, Fernando; Saino, Nicola; Rubolini, Diego
The timing of major life-history events, such as migration and moult, is set by endogenous circadian and circannual clocks, that have been well characterized at the molecular level. Conversely, the genetic sources of variation in phenology and in other behavioral traits have been sparsely addressed. It has been proposed that inter-individual variability in the timing of seasonal events may arise from allelic polymorphism at phenological candidate genes involved in the signaling cascade of the endogenous clocks. In this study of a long-distance migratory passerine bird, the willow warbler Phylloscopus trochilus , we investigated whether allelic variation at 5 polymorphic loci of 4 candidate genes ( Adcyap1 , Clock , Creb1 , and Npas2 ), predicted 2 major components of the annual schedule, namely timing of spring migration across the central Mediterranean sea and moult speed, the latter gauged from ptilochronological analyses of tail feathers moulted in the African winter quarters. We identified a novel Clock gene locus ( Clock region 3) showing polyQ polymorphism, which was however not significantly associated with any phenotypic trait. Npas2 allele size predicted male (but not female) spring migration date, with males bearing longer alleles migrating significantly earlier than those bearing shorter alleles. Creb1 allele size significantly predicted male (but not female) moult speed, longer alleles being associated with faster moult. All other genotype-phenotype associations were statistically non-significant. These findings provide new evidence for a role of candidate genes in modulating the phenology of different circannual activities in long-distance migratory birds, and for the occurrence of sex-specific candidate gene effects.
Brodin, Anders; Nilsson, Jan-Åke; Nord, Andreas
Several species of small birds are resident in boreal forests where environmental temperatures can be -20 to -30 °C, or even lower, in winter. As winter days are short, and food is scarce, winter survival is a challenge for small endothermic animals. A bird of this size will have to gain almost 10% of its lean body mass in fat every day to sustain overnight metabolism. Birds such as parids (titmice and chickadees) can use facultative hypothermia, a process in which body temperature is actively down-regulated to a specific level, to reduce heat loss and thus save energy. During cold winter nights, these birds may decrease body temperature from the normal from 42 ° down to 35 °C, or even lower in some species. However, birds are unable to move in this deep hypothermic state, making it a risky strategy if predators are around. Why, then, do small northern birds enter a potentially dangerous physiological state for a relatively small reduction in energy expenditure? We used stochastic dynamic programming to investigate this. Our model suggests that the use of nocturnal hypothermia at night is paramount in these biomes, as it would increase winter survival for a small northern bird by 58% over a winter of 100 days. Our model also explains the phenomenon known as winter fattening, and its relationship to thermoregulation, in northern birds.
Full Text Available In order to examine the potential of using the coupled smooth particles hydrodynamic (SPH and finite element (FE method to predict the dynamic responses of aircraft structures in bird strike events, bird-strike tests on the sidewall structure of an aircraft nose are carried out and numerically simulated. The bird is modeled with SPH and described by the Murnaghan equation of state, while the structure is modeled with finite elements. A coupled SPH–FE method is developed to simulate the bird-strike tests and a numerical model is established using a commercial software PAM-CRASH. The bird model shows no signs of instability and correctly modeled the break-up of the bird into particles. Finally the dynamic response such as strains in the skin is simulated and compared with test results, and the simulated deformation and fracture process of the sidewall structure is compared with images recorded by a high speed camera. Good agreement between the simulation results and test data indicates that the coupled SPH–FE method can provide a very powerful tool in predicting the dynamic responses of aircraft structures in events of bird strike.
Full Text Available The mallard Anas platyrhynchos is a reservoir species for influenza A virus in the northern hemisphere, with particularly high prevalence rates prior to as well as during its prolonged autumn migration. It has been proposed that the virus is brought from the breeding grounds and transmitted to conspecifics during subsequent staging during migration, and so a better understanding of the natal origin of staging ducks is vital to deciphering the dynamics of viral movement pathways. Ottenby is an important stopover site in southeast Sweden almost halfway downstream in the major Northwest European flyway, and is used by millions of waterfowl each year. Here, mallards were captured and sampled for influenza A virus infection, and positive samples were subtyped in order to study possible links to the natal area, which were determined by a novel approach combining banding recovery data and isotopic measurements (δ(2H of feathers grown on breeding grounds. Geographic assignments showed that the core natal areas of studied mallards were in Estonia, southern and central Finland, and northwestern Russia. This study demonstrates a clear temporal succession of latitudes of natal origin during the course of autumn migration. We also demonstrate a corresponding and concomitant shift in virus subtypes. Acknowledging that these two different patterns were based in part upon different data, a likely interpretation worth further testing is that the early arriving birds with more proximate origins have different influenza A subtypes than the more distantly originating late autumn birds. If true, this knowledge would allow novel insight into the origins and transmission of the influenza A virus among migratory hosts previously unavailable through conventional approaches.
The most wide-spread mechanisms and models of the 137 Cs isotope migration in soil are considered because of urgency of this problem conditioned by global fallout during nuclear weapon tests and contamination of territories due to accidents on nuclear objects (including the East Urals and ChNPP accident). It is shown that the 137 Cs migration models with an account of the sorption-desorption kinetics have from the practical adequacy certain advantage in comparison with other models, though they are mathematically more complex and require complex calculations [ru
Debrot, A.O.; Bemmelen, van R.S.A.; Ligon, J.
The mangrove and seagrass lagoon of Lac Bay on Bonaire covers an area of roughly 700 ha. It is home to endangered green sea turtles, Chelonia mydas, and the Caribbean queen conch, Strombus gigas, and is a roosting and breeding area for several birds. Based on its nature values this 7 km2 bay has
Yan, S.; Landry, G.R.; Tate, T.
A computer model, named DNAPMIG (DNAPL Potential Migration), was developed to calculate the dense nonaqueous phase liquid (DNAPL) critical length required to initiate movement and direction of potential migration at locations within an area of interest. The model takes into consideration the potentiometric gradient, bottom structure elevation, DNAPL density, interfacial tension, contact angle, soil grain size, partitioning coefficient, effective solubility, and water saturation. The model is interfaced with SURFER graphics software to use vectors to indicate the DNAPL critical length and the potential migration direction. The potential for DNAPL existence and migration at a specific site can be estimated by relating chemical concentration in the ground water to its solubility limit and the DNAPL critical length. The possibility of vertical migration can also be determined. This model can be used to determine and compare the effectiveness of existing or alternative recovery well systems to capture a DNAPL plume or arrest its movement; to help determine optimum locations and pumping rates of recovery wells; and to help determine the optimum location of environmental borings to locate DNAPL. This paper presents two hypothetical examples and two site applications in south Louisiana
Altab Hossain; Ataur Rahman; A.K.M. P. Iqbal; M. Ariffin; M. Mazian
This work describes the aerodynamic characteristic for aircraft wing model with and without bird feather like winglet. The aerofoil used to construct the whole structure is NACA 653-218 Rectangular wing and this aerofoil has been used to compare the result with previous research using winglet. The model of the rectangular wing with bird feather like winglet has been fabricated using polystyrene before design using CATIA P3 V5R13 software and finally fabricated in wood. Th...
The objective of this thesis is to investigate the importance of melt migration in shaping major characteristics of geological features associated with the partial melting of the upper mantle, such as sea-floor spreading, continental flood basalts and rifting. The partial melting produces permeable partially molten rocks and a buoyant low viscosity melt. Melt migrates through the partially molten rocks, and transfers mass and heat. Due to its much faster velocity and appreciable buoyancy, melt migration has the potential to modify dynamics of the upwelling partially molten plumes. I develop a 2-D, two-phase flow model and apply it to investigate effects of melt migration on the dynamics and melt generation of upwelling mantle plumes and focusing of melt migration beneath mid-ocean ridges. Melt migration changes distribution of the melt-retention buoyancy force and therefore affects the dynamics of the upwelling plume. This is investigated by modeling a plume with a constant initial melt of 10% where no further melting is considered. Melt migration polarizes melt-retention buoyancy force into high and low melt fraction regions at the top and bottom portions of the plume and therefore results in formation of a more slender and faster upwelling plume. Allowing the plume to melt as it ascends through the upper mantle also produces a slender and faster plume. It is shown that melt produced by decompressional melting of the plume migrates to the upper horizons of the plume, increases the upwelling velocity and thus, the volume of melt generated by the plume. Melt migration produces a plume which lacks the mushroom shape observed for the plume models without melt migration. Melt migration forms a high melt fraction layer beneath the sloping base of the impermeable oceanic lithosphere. Using realistic conditions of melting, freezing and melt extraction, I examine whether the high melt fraction layer is able to focus melt from a wide partial melting zone to a narrow region
Li Shihhai; Jen, C.-P.
The role of colloids in the migration of radionuclides in the geosphere has been emphasized in the performance assessment of high-level radioactive waste disposal. The literature indicates that the colloid velocity may not be equal to the velocity of groundwater owing to hydrodynamic chromatography. A theoretical model for hydrodynamic chromatography of colloid migration in the fracture is proposed in the present work. In this model, the colloids are treated as nonreactive and the external forces acting on colloidal particles are considered including the inertial force, the van der Waals attractive force, and the electrical double-layer repulsive force, as well as the gravitational force. A fully developed concentration profile for colloids is obtained to elucidate migration behavior for colloids in the fracture. The effects of parameters governing these forces and the aperture of the fracture are determined using a theoretical model
Rioux, Pierre; Blier, Pierre U.
The main objective of this class experiment is to measure the activity of two metabolic enzymes in crude extract from bird pectoral muscle and to relate the differences to their mode of locomotion and ecology. The laboratory is adapted to stimulate the interest of wildlife management students to biochemistry. The enzymatic activities of cytochrome…
Kim, Jin-Yong; Lee, Sanghun; Shin, Man-Seok; Lee, Chang-Hoon; Seo, Changwan; Eo, Soo Hyung
Altitudinal patterns in the population ecology of mountain bird species are useful for predicting species occurrence and behavior. Numerous hypotheses about the complex interactions among environmental factors have been proposed; however, these still remain controversial. This study aimed to identify the altitudinal patterns in breeding bird species richness or density and to test the hypotheses that climate, habitat heterogeneity (horizontal and vertical), and heterospecific attraction in a temperate forest, South Korea. We conducted a field survey of 142 plots at altitudes between 200 and 1,400 m a.s.l in the breeding season. A total of 2,771 individuals from 53 breeding bird species were recorded. Altitudinal patterns of species richness and density showed a hump-shaped pattern, indicating that the highest richness and density could be observed at moderate altitudes. Models constructed with 13 combinations of six variables demonstrated that species richness was positively correlated with vertical and horizontal habitat heterogeneity. Density was positively correlated with vertical, but not horizontal habitat heterogeneity, and negatively correlated with migratory bird ratio. No significant relationships were found between spring temperature and species richness or density. Therefore, the observed patterns in species richness support the hypothesis that habitat heterogeneity, rather than climate, is the main driver of species richness. Also, neither habitat heterogeneity nor climate hypotheses fully explains the observed patterns in density. However, vertical habitat heterogeneity does likely help explain observed patterns in density. The heterospecific attraction hypothesis did not apply to the distribution of birds along the altitudinal gradient. Appropriate management of vertical habitat heterogeneity, such as vegetation cover, should be maintained for the conservation of bird diversity in this area.
Ulla Bøgvad Kejser
Full Text Available The Danish Ministry of Culture has funded a project to set up a model for costing preservation of digital materials held by national cultural heritage institutions. The overall objective of the project was to increase cost effectiveness of digital preservation activities and to provide a basis for comparing and estimating future cost requirements for digital preservation. In this study we describe an activity-based costing methodology for digital preservation based on the Open Archice Information System (OAIS Reference Model. Within this framework, which we denote the Cost Model for Digital Preservation (CMDP, the focus is on costing the functional entity Preservation Planning from the OAIS and digital migration activities. In order to estimate these costs we have identified cost-critical activities by analysing the functions in the OAIS model and the flows between them. The analysis has been supplemented with findings from the literature, and our own knowledge and experience. The identified cost-critical activities have subsequently been deconstructed into measurable components, cost dependencies have been examined, and the resulting equations expressed in a spreadsheet. Currently the model can calculate the cost of different migration scenarios for a series of preservation formats for text, images, sound, video, geodata, and spreadsheets. In order to verify the model it has been tested on cost data from two different migration projects at the Danish National Archives (DNA. The study found that the OAIS model provides a sound overall framework for the cost breakdown, but that some functions need additional detailing in order to cost activities accurately. Running the two sets of empirical data showed among other things that the model underestimates the cost of manpower-intensive migration projects, while it reinstates an often underestimated cost, which is the cost of developing migration software. The model has proven useful for estimating the
Investigation of influenza in migrating birds, the primordial reservoir and transmitters of influenza in Brazil Investigação de influenza em aves migratórias, principal reservatório e transporte de influenza no Brasil
Adélia Hiroko Nagamori Kawamoto
Full Text Available Birds are the most important reservoirs of the influenza virus. Its maintenance in its natural hosts, including man, allows the influenza virus to reassorts its strains. The recent report of an avian influenza A (H5N1 virus in humans, was in a child with fatal respiratory illness in China, 1997. The current study was conducted to elucidate the transportation of the influenza by birds that migrate, annually, through the both Northern and Southern hemispheres, with special attention paid to the Vireo olivaceus [Juruviara(BR or Red-eyed vireo(USA] species, which travels from the USA to Brazil, and vice versa, and the Elaenia mesoleuca [Tuque(BR or (USA] species that flies over the entire Southern Hemisphere. There are two species of birds, which breed and migrate in São Paulo State, Brazil, and which were demonstrated to carry Influenza virus, were selected. The viral particles isolated were observed by electron microscopy. The influenza virus was detected by the House Duplex/PCR and Gloria molecular biology tests. The results demonstrated that the Elaenia mesoleuca and Vireo olivaceus bird species are carrying the Influenza virus whilst crossing both the Northern and Southern hemispheres. To understand the role that these migrating birds may play in epidemic influenza, in Brazil, characterization of avian influenza subtypes will be done.Os mais importantes reservatórios do vírus influenza são os pássaros. A manutenção do vírus influenza em hospedeiros naturais, inclusive o homem, permite que esse vírus realize rearranjos entre as suas cepas. O recente relato de uma cepa influenza aviária A(H5N1, em humanos, se deu em uma criança com doença respiratória fatal, na China em 1977. O presente estudo foi conduzido para elucidar o transporte da influenza por pássaros que migram, anualmente, através de ambos hemisférios o do Norte e do Sul, com especial atenção voltada à espécies Vireo olivaceo [Juruviara(BR e Red-eyed vireo(USA] que
Bartholdy, Jesper; Ernstsen, V.B.; Flemming, B.W.
A model linking subaqueous dune migration to the effective (grain related) shear stress is calibrated by means of flume data for bedform dimensions and migration rates. The effective shear stress is calculated on the basis of a new method assuming a near-bed layer above the mean bed level in which...... the current velocity accelerates towards the bedform crest. As a consequence, the effective bed shear stress corresponds to the shear stress acting directly on top of the bedform. The model operates with the critical Shields stress as a function of grain size. It predicts the deposition (volume per unit time...
Tanaka, Yukihisa; Hironaga, Michihiko; Kudo, Koji
In the current concept of repository for nuclear waste disposal, compacted bentonite will be used as an engineered barrier mainly for inhibiting migration of radioactive nuclides. Hydrogen gas can be generated inside the engineered barrier by anaerobic corrosion of metals used for containers, etc. If the gas generation rate exceeds the diffusion rate of gas molecules inside of the engineered barrier, gas will accumulate in the void space inside of the engineered barrier until its pressure becomes large enough for it to enter the bentonite as a discrete gaseous phase. It is expected to be not easy for gas to entering into the bentonite as a discrete gaseous phase because the pore of compacted bentonite is so minute. Therefore it is necessary to investigate the following subjects: a) Effect of the accumulated gas pressure on surrounding objects such as concrete lining, rock mass. b) Effect of gas breakthrough on the barrier function of bentonite. c) Revealing and modeling gas migration mechanism for overcoming the scale effects in laboratory specimen test. Therefore in this study, gas migration tests for compacted and saturated bentonite to investigate and to model the mechanism of gas migration phenomenon. Firstly, the following conclusions were obtained through by the results of the gas migration tests which are conducted in this study: 1) Bubbles appear in the semitransparent drainage tube at first when the total gas is equal to the initial total axial stress or somewhat smaller. By increasing the gas pressure more, breakthrough of gas migration, which is defined as a sudden increase of amount of emission gas, occurred. When the total gas pressure exceeds the initial total axial stress, the total axial stress is always equal to the total gas pressure because specimens shrink in the axial direction with causing the clearance between the end of the specimen and porous metal. 2) Effective gas conductivity after breakthrough of gas migration is times larger than that
Castonguay, M.; Beauchesne, J.A.; Ouellet, J.F.; Pelletier, N.; Gallant, F.; Lavoie, J. [Pesca Environnement, Maria, PQ (Canada)
The global production of electricity from wind power has increased significantly in recent years. As part of Hydro-Quebec's plans to increase wind power production, Cartier Wind Power plans to install 61 wind turbines at Baie-des-Sables on Quebec's Gaspe Peninsula where wind energy is abundant. This study evaluated the impact of the proposed wind turbine array on birds and their habitat and migration patterns. In particular, it characterized the migratory passage of birds in the area through 900 hours of visual and auditory observation beginning with spring migration, spring nesting to autumnal migration. The behavior of different migratory birds as well as local species was studied and the results of the ornithological inventory were revealed in terms of species abundance and diversity; distribution and use of the territory by birds; migratory activities; period and importance of migration; characterization of displacement; height of flight; direction of migration; and, use of the territory by the avifauna. The inventory identified 121 species of birds including 14 species of raptors which moved mainly along the river and flew very high. The study revealed that although the bird habitats at Baie-des-Sables were already strongly disturbed by agricultural activities, it is unlikely that the turbines will not have any impact on the avifauna. However, most of the wind turbines will be installed in farmers fields, and as such, will not exert additional pressure on the forest medium. The factors that influence the rate of bird collisions with wind turbines were discussed. In order to lessen the impact on birds, it was suggested that installation work should occur outside of the nesting season and that the electrical supply networks should be hidden to limit the harmful effects posed by power lines. 16 refs., 9 tabs., 4 figs., 11 maps, 9 appendices.
Shepherd, T.A.; Brown, S.E.
This paper presents an analytical hydrogeochemical model based upon acid consumption-neutralization front movement. The development of contaminant plumes is discussed and distinct zones within these plumes are identified and characterized. The most important process influencing the rate and extent of contaminant migration at acid-leach uranium tailings impoundments is the neutralization of seepage water by soils along ground water flow paths. The chemical characteristics of the ground water is determined in order to identify and characterize zones within migrating plumes of tailings-derived water. It is concluded that the characterization of specific zones is useful in the interpretation of existing conditions, in the evaluation of future migration, and in the determination of appropriate models for the specific situation
Zimmie, T.F.; De, A.; Mahmud, M.B.
A 100 g-tonne geotechnical centrifuge was used to study the long-term migration of a contaminant and radioactive tracer through a saturated soil medium. The use of the centrifuge simulates the acceleration of travel time in the prototype, which is N times larger than the model, by N 2 , where N is the desired g level. For a 5 h run at 60 g, the test modelled a migration time of about 2 years for a prototype 60 times larger than the small-scale model tested. Iodine 131, used as the tracer, was injected onto the surface of the soil, and was allowed to migrate with a constant head of water through the saturated soil. End window Geiger-Mueller (G-M) tubes were used to measure the count rate of the radioactive tracer flowing through the soil. The time from the peak response of one G-M tube to the other denotes the travel time between the two points in the flow domain. The results obtained using the radioactive tracer are in good agreement with the test performed on the same model setup using potassium permanganate as tracer and with numerical flow net modelling. Radioactive tracers can be useful in the study of nonradioactive contaminants as well, offering a nonintrusive (nondestructive) method of measuring contaminant migration. (author). 18 refs., 1 tab., 7 figs
Avila, R.; Moberg, L.; Hubbard, L.
The Chernobyl accident has clearly shown the long-term effects of a radioactive contamination of forest ecosystems. This report is based on a literature review of models which describe the migration of radionuclides, radioactive caesium in particular, in forest ecosystems. The report describes the particularities of the forest ecosystem, the time dynamics of the contamination, the transfer processes and factors influencing caesium migration. This provides a basis for a discussion of different approaches for modelling caesium migration in the forest. It is concluded that the studied dynamic models include the most relevant transfer processes both for the acute and the long-term phase after a radioactive deposition. However, most models are site specific and do not consider some of the factors responsible for the differences in radionuclide behaviour and distribution in different types of forests. Although model improvements are constrained by the availability of experimental data and by the lack of knowledge of the migration mechanisms some possible improvements are discussed. This report is part of the LANDSCAPE project. -An integrated approach to radionuclide flow in the semi-natural ecosystems underlying exposure pathways to man. 42 refs, 3 tabs, 9 figs.
Avila, R.; Moberg, L.; Hubbard, L.
The Chernobyl accident has clearly shown the long-term effects of a radioactive contamination of forest ecosystems. This report is based on a literature review of models which describe the migration of radionuclides, radioactive caesium in particular, in forest ecosystems. The report describes the particularities of the forest ecosystem, the time dynamics of the contamination, the transfer processes and factors influencing caesium migration. This provides a basis for a discussion of different approaches for modelling caesium migration in the forest. It is concluded that the studied dynamic models include the most relevant transfer processes both for the acute and the long-term phase after a radioactive deposition. However, most models are site specific and do not consider some of the factors responsible for the differences in radionuclide behaviour and distribution in different types of forests. Although model improvements are constrained by the availability of experimental data and by the lack of knowledge of the migration mechanisms some possible improvements are discussed. This report is part of the LANDSCAPE project. -An integrated approach to radionuclide flow in the semi-natural ecosystems underlying exposure pathways to man
Migration modelling provides reliable migration estimates from food-contact materials (FCM) to food or food simulants based on mass-transfer parameters like diffusion and partition coefficients related to individual materials. In most cases, mass-transfer parameters are not readily available from the literature and for this reason are estimated with a given uncertainty. Historically, uncertainty was accounted for by introducing upper limit concepts first, turning out to be of limited applicability due to highly overestimated migration results. Probabilistic migration modelling gives the possibility to consider uncertainty of the mass-transfer parameters as well as other model inputs. With respect to a functional barrier, the most important parameters among others are the diffusion properties of the functional barrier and its thickness. A software tool that accepts distribution as inputs and is capable of applying Monte Carlo methods, i.e., random sampling from the input distributions of the relevant parameters (i.e., diffusion coefficient and layer thickness), predicts migration results with related uncertainty and confidence intervals. The capabilities of probabilistic migration modelling are presented in the view of three case studies (1) sensitivity analysis, (2) functional barrier efficiency and (3) validation by experimental testing. Based on the predicted migration by probabilistic migration modelling and related exposure estimates, safety evaluation of new materials in the context of existing or new packaging concepts is possible. Identifying associated migration risk and potential safety concerns in the early stage of packaging development is possible. Furthermore, dedicated material selection exhibiting required functional barrier efficiency under application conditions becomes feasible. Validation of the migration risk assessment by probabilistic migration modelling through a minimum of dedicated experimental testing is strongly recommended.
Lynn, Suellen; Madden, Melanie C.; Kus, Barbara E.
Executive SummaryWe operated a bird banding station on the Point Loma peninsula in western San Diego County, California, during spring and summer from 2011 to 2015. The station was established in 2010 as part of a long-term monitoring program for neotropical migratory birds during spring migration and for breeding birds as part of the Monitoring Avian Productivity and Survivorship (MAPS) program.During spring migration (April and May), 2011–15, we captured 1,760 individual birds of 54 species, 91 percent (1,595) of which were newly banded, fewer than 1 percent (3) of which were recaptures that were banded in previous years, and 9 percent (143 hummingbirds, 2 hawks, and 17 other birds) of which we released unbanded. We observed an additional 22 species that were not captured. Thirty-four individuals were captured more than once. Bird capture rate averaged 0.49 ± 0.07 captures per net-hour (range 0.41–0.56). Species richness per day averaged 6.87 ± 0.33. Cardellina pusilla (Wilson’s warbler) was the most abundant spring migrant captured, followed by Empidonax difficilis (Pacific-slope flycatcher), Vireo gilvus (warbling vireo), Zonotrichia leucophrys (white-crowned sparrow), and Selasphorus rufus (rufous hummingbird). Captures of white-crowned sparrow decreased, and captures of Pacific-slope flycatcher increased, over the 5 years of our study. Fifty-six percent of known-sex individuals were male and 44 percent were female. The peak number of new species arriving per day ranged from April 1 (2013-six species) to April 16 (2012-five species). A significant correlation was determined between the number of migrants captured each day per net-hour and the density of echoes on the Next-Generation Radar (NEXRAD) images across all 5 years, and in each year except 2014. NEXRAD radar imagery appears to be a useful tool for detecting pulses in migration.Our results indicate that Point Loma provides stopover habitat during migration for 76 migratory species, including 20
Eisenhauer, Joseph G.
The popularity of distance education has increasingly led universities to consider expanding their online offerings. Remarkably few financial models have been presented for online courses, however, and fewer still have investigated the economic consequences of the migration, or cross-over, of students from traditional classes within the…
Dean, E.T.R.; Schofield, A.N.
This report provides an overview of some centrifuge small-scale physical model tests and 1g experimental and theoretical work relating to the sub-surface migration of a model pollutant (sodium chloride) from a notional prototype surface landfill of width 25 metres and depth 3 metres cut into a 20 metre deep layer of nominally uniform soil overlying a more permeable base layer. An introduction is given to the application of geotechnical centrifuge modelling techniques to pollutant migration studies. Experiments performed at 1/100th scale using the Cambridge 10 metre diameter Geotechnical Beam Centrifuge simulating transport through silt over prototype time periods of around 35 years, are summarised. Comparisons of data with calculations using early versions of the POLLUTE and MIGRATE computer codes are presented. An experiment at 1/400th scale using the new Cambridge Geotechnical Drum Centrifuge, involving transport through clay over a prototype time period of around 1000 years, is described. Potential future uses of centrifuge modelling techniques to simulate long-term migration through more complex hydrological environments are also discussed. (author)
The author presents the results of numerical simulations of the seasonal migration of nitrogen frost on Triton, constrained by Voyager observations of atmospheric pressure, temperature, and albedo distribution. Most of the exposed nitrogen is probably seasonal frost, whose migration can produce major variations in atmospheric pressure. For instance, models explored here predict a tenfold pressure drop in the coming decade. The observed albedo patterns can be understood if fresh nitrogen frost is relatively dark butt brightens with increasing insolation in a manner analogous to the Martian southern CO 2 cap
Today, reliable software systems are the basis of any business or company. The continuous further development of those systems is the central component in software evolution. It requires a huge amount of time- man power- as well as financial resources. The challenges are size, seniority and heterogeneity of those software systems. Christian Wagner addresses software evolution: the inherent problems and uncertainties in the process. He presents a model-driven method which leads to a synchronization between source code and design. As a result the model layer will be the central part in further e
Klabunde, Anna; Zinn, Sabine; Willekens, Frans; Leuchter, Matthias
We propose to extend demographic multistate models by adding a behavioural element: behavioural rules explain intentions and thus transitions. Our framework is inspired by the Theory of Planned Behaviour. We exemplify our approach with a model of migration from Senegal to France. Model parameters are determined using empirical data where available. Parameters for which no empirical correspondence exists are determined by calibration. Age- and period-specific migration rates are used for model validation. Our approach adds to the toolkit of demographic projection by allowing for shocks and social influence, which alter behaviour in non-linear ways, while sticking to the general framework of multistate modelling. Our simulations yield that higher income growth in Senegal leads to higher emigration rates in the medium term, while a decrease in fertility yields lower emigration rates.
Bates, Karl T; Maidment, Susannah C R; Allen, Vivian; Barrett, Paul M
Ornithischia (the 'bird-hipped' dinosaurs) encompasses bipedal, facultative quadrupedal and quadrupedal taxa. Primitive ornithischians were small bipeds, but large body size and obligate quadrupedality evolved independently in all major ornithischian lineages. Numerous pelvic and hind limb features distinguish ornithischians from the majority of other non-avian dinosaurs. However, some of these features, notably a retroverted pubis and elongate iliac preacetabular process, appeared convergently in maniraptoran theropods, and were inherited by their avian descendants. During maniraptoran/avian evolution these pelvic modifications led to significant changes in the functions of associated muscles, involving alterations to the moment arms and the activation patterns of pelvic musculature. However, the functions of these features in ornithischians and their influence on locomotion have not been tested and remain poorly understood. Here, we provide quantitative tests of bipedal ornithischian muscle function using computational modelling to estimate 3D hind limb moment arms for the most complete basal ornithischian, Lesothosaurus diagnosticus. This approach enables sensitivity analyses to be carried out to explore the effects of uncertainties in muscle reconstructions of extinct taxa, and allows direct comparisons to be made with similarly constructed models of other bipedal dinosaurs. This analysis supports some previously proposed qualitative inferences of muscle function in basal ornithischians. However, more importantly, this work highlights ambiguities in the roles of certain muscles, notably those inserting close to the hip joint. Comparative analysis reveals that moment arm polarities and magnitudes in Lesothosaurus, basal tetanuran theropods and the extant ostrich are generally similar. However, several key differences are identified, most significantly in comparisons between the moment arms of muscles associated with convergent osteological features in
Morrison, M.L. [California State Univ., Sacramento, CA (United States); Pollock, K.H. [North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC (United States)
One of the most pressing environmental concerns related to wind project development is the potential for avian fatalities caused by the turbines. The goal of this project is to develop a useful, practical modeling framework for evaluating potential wind power plant impacts that can be generalized to most bird species. This modeling framework could be used to get a preliminary understanding of the likelihood of significant impacts to birds, in a cost-effective way. The authors accomplish this by (1) reviewing the major factors that can influence the persistence of a wild population; (2) briefly reviewing various models that can aid in estimating population status and trend, including methods of evaluating model structure and performance; (3) reviewing survivorship and population projections; and (4) developing a framework for using models to evaluate the potential impacts of wind development on birds.
Morrison, M.L.; Pollock, K.H.
One of the most pressing environmental concerns related to wind project development is the potential for avian fatalities caused by the turbines. The goal of this project is to develop a useful, practical modeling framework for evaluating potential wind power plant impacts that can be generalized to most bird species. This modeling framework could be used to get a preliminary understanding of the likelihood of significant impacts to birds, in a cost-effective way. The authors accomplish this by (1) reviewing the major factors that can influence the persistence of a wild population; (2) briefly reviewing various models that can aid in estimating population status and trend, including methods of evaluating model structure and performance; (3) reviewing survivorship and population projections; and (4) developing a framework for using models to evaluate the potential impacts of wind development on birds
Miller, C.W.; Benson, L.V.; Carnahan, C.L.
Prediction of the rates of migration of contaminant chemical species in groundwater flowing through toxic waste repositories is essential to the assessment of a repository's capability of meeting standards for release rates. A large number of chemical transport models, of varying degrees of complexity, have been devised for the purpose of providing this predictive capability. In general, the transport of dissolved chemical species through a water-saturated porous medium is influenced by convection, diffusion/dispersion, sorption, formation of complexes in the aqueous phase, and chemical precipitation. The reliability of predictions made with the models which omit certain of these processes is difficult to assess. A numerical model, CHEMTRN, has been developed to determine which chemical processes govern radionuclide migration. CHEMTRN builds on a model called MCCTM developed previously by Lichtner and Benson
Miller, Tricia A; Brooks, Robert P; Lanzone, Michael; Brandes, David; Cooper, Jeff; O'Malley, Kieran; Maisonneuve, Charles; Tremblay, Junior; Duerr, Adam; Katzner, Todd
When wildlife habitat overlaps with industrial development animals may be harmed. Because wildlife and people select resources to maximize biological fitness and economic return, respectively, we estimated risk, the probability of eagles encountering and being affected by turbines, by overlaying models of resource selection for each entity. This conceptual framework can be applied across multiple spatial scales to understand and mitigate impacts of industry on wildlife. We estimated risk to Golden Eagles (Aquila chrysaetos) from wind energy development in 3 topographically distinct regions of the central Appalachian Mountains of Pennsylvania (United States) based on models of resource selection of wind facilities (n = 43) and of northbound migrating eagles (n = 30). Risk to eagles from wind energy was greatest in the Ridge and Valley region; all 24 eagles that passed through that region used the highest risk landscapes at least once during low altitude flight. In contrast, only half of the birds that entered the Allegheny Plateau region used highest risk landscapes and none did in the Allegheny Mountains. Likewise, in the Allegheny Mountains, the majority of wind turbines (56%) were situated in poor eagle habitat; thus, risk to eagles is lower there than in the Ridge and Valley, where only 1% of turbines are in poor eagle habitat. Risk within individual facilities was extremely variable; on average, facilities had 11% (SD 23; range = 0-100%) of turbines in highest risk landscapes and 26% (SD 30; range = 0-85%) of turbines in the lowest risk landscapes. Our results provide a mechanism for relocating high-risk turbines, and they show the feasibility of this novel and highly adaptable framework for managing risk of harm to wildlife from industrial development. © 2014 Society for Conservation Biology.
Full understanding of the transportation of nuclides by groundwater is essential in designing an underground radioactive waste disposal site. What is the most important is to clarify in detail the process of sorption of nuclides by rock and soil. This report outlines various theories and experimental data that are currently available. In addition, studies made in various countries are reviewed and some problems are pointed out. First, a review is made of studies that deal with adsorption and behaviors of contaminants in natural barriers (rock, soil). Next, migration models that have been developed in studying migration processes in the field of chemical engineering or behaviors of agricultural chemicals in the field of soil physics are examined to see if they can be applied to investigations of the migration of radioactive contaminants in a porous medium. Finally, a review is made of basic underground migration models that are used in various countries in studying deep underground disposal of long-life radionuclides. Some laboratory experiments on TRU nuclides in rock are also outlined. (Nogami, K.)
Muhammad Altaf Khan
Full Text Available Hepatitis B is a globally infectious disease. Mathematical modeling of HBV transmission is an interesting research area. In this paper, we present characteristics of HBV virus transmission in the form of a mathematical model. We analyzed the effect of immigrants in the model to study the effect of immigrants for the host population. We added the following flow parameters: “the transmission between migrated and exposed class” and “the transmission between migrated and acute class.” With these new features, we obtained a compartment model of six differential equations. First, we find the basic threshold quantity Ro and then find the local asymptotic stability of disease-free equilibrium and endemic equilibrium. Furthermore, we find the global stability of the disease-free and endemic equilibria. Previous similar publications have not added the kind of information about the numerical results of the model. In our case, from numerical simulation, a detailed discussion of the parameters and their numerical results is presented. We claim that with these assumptions and by adding the migrated class, the model informs policy for governments, to be aware of the immigrants and subject them to tests about the disease status. Immigrants for short visits and students should be subjected to tests to reduce the number of immigrants with disease.
Lin, T. C.; Tsai, C. H.; Lai, K. H.; Chen, J. S.
Nuclear technology has been employed for energy production for several decades. Although people receive many benefits from nuclear energy, there are inevitably environmental pollutions as well as human health threats posed by the radioactive materials releases from nuclear waste disposed in geological repositories or accidental releases of radionuclides from nuclear facilities. Theoretical studies have been undertaken to understand the transport of radionuclides in subsurface environments because that the radionuclide transport in groundwater is one of the main pathway in exposure scenarios for the intake of radionuclides. The radionuclide transport in groundwater can be predicted using analytical solution as well as numerical models. In this study, we simulate the transport of the radionuclide decay chain using HYDROGEOCHEM. The simulated results are verified against the analytical solution available in the literature. Excellent agreements between the numerical simulation and the analytical are observed for a wide spectrum of concentration. HYDROGECHEM is a useful tool assessing the ecological and environmental impact of the accidental radionuclide releases such as the Fukushima nuclear disaster where multiple radionuclides leaked through the reactor, subsequently contaminating the local groundwater and ocean seawater in the vicinity of the nuclear plant.
Full Text Available There is growing interest in avian influenza (AI epidemiology to predict disease risk in wild and domestic birds, and prevent transmission to humans. However, understanding the epidemic dynamics of highly pathogenic (HPAI viruses remains challenging because they have rarely been detected in wild birds. We used modeling to integrate available scientific information from laboratory and field studies, evaluate AI dynamics in individual hosts and waterfowl populations, and identify key areas for future research. We developed a Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR model and used published laboratory challenge studies to estimate epidemiological parameters (rate of infection, latency period, recovery and mortality rates, considering the importance of age classes, and virus pathogenicity. Infectious contact leads to infection and virus shedding within 1-2 days, followed by relatively slower period for recovery or mortality. We found a shorter infectious period for HPAI than low pathogenic (LP AI, which may explain that HPAI has been much harder to detect than LPAI during surveillance programs. Our model predicted a rapid LPAI epidemic curve, with a median duration of infection of 50-60 days and no fatalities. In contrast, HPAI dynamics had lower prevalence and higher mortality, especially in young birds. Based on field data from LPAI studies, our model suggests to increase surveillance for HPAI in post-breeding areas, because the presence of immunologically naïve young birds is predicted to cause higher HPAI prevalence and bird losses during this season. Our results indicate a better understanding of the transmission, infection, and immunity-related processes is required to refine predictions of AI risk and spread, improve surveillance for HPAI in wild birds, and develop disease control strategies to reduce potential transmission to domestic birds and/or humans.
Hénaux, Viviane; Samuel, Michael D.; Bunck, Christine M.
There is growing interest in avian influenza (AI) epidemiology to predict disease risk in wild and domestic birds, and prevent transmission to humans. However, understanding the epidemic dynamics of highly pathogenic (HPAI) viruses remains challenging because they have rarely been detected in wild birds. We used modeling to integrate available scientific information from laboratory and field studies, evaluate AI dynamics in individual hosts and waterfowl populations, and identify key areas for future research. We developed a Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) model and used published laboratory challenge studies to estimate epidemiological parameters (rate of infection, latency period, recovery and mortality rates), considering the importance of age classes, and virus pathogenicity. Infectious contact leads to infection and virus shedding within 1–2 days, followed by relatively slower period for recovery or mortality. We found a shorter infectious period for HPAI than low pathogenic (LP) AI, which may explain that HPAI has been much harder to detect than LPAI during surveillance programs. Our model predicted a rapid LPAI epidemic curve, with a median duration of infection of 50–60 days and no fatalities. In contrast, HPAI dynamics had lower prevalence and higher mortality, especially in young birds. Based on field data from LPAI studies, our model suggests to increase surveillance for HPAI in post-breeding areas, because the presence of immunologically naïve young birds is predicted to cause higher HPAI prevalence and bird losses during this season. Our results indicate a better understanding of the transmission, infection, and immunity-related processes is required to refine predictions of AI risk and spread, improve surveillance for HPAI in wild birds, and develop disease control strategies to reduce potential transmission to domestic birds and/or humans.
Douglas C. Tozer
Full Text Available Marsh birds are notoriously elusive, with variation in detection probability across species, regions, seasons, and different times of day and weather. Therefore, it is important to develop regional field survey protocols that maximize detections, but that also produce data for estimating and analytically adjusting for remaining differences in detections. We aimed to improve regional field survey protocols by estimating detection probability of eight elusive marsh bird species throughout two regions that have ongoing marsh bird monitoring programs: the southern Canadian Prairies (Prairie region and the southern portion of the Great Lakes basin and parts of southern Québec (Great Lakes-St. Lawrence region. We accomplished our goal using generalized binomial N-mixture models and data from ~22,300 marsh bird surveys conducted between 2008 and 2014 by Bird Studies Canada's Prairie, Great Lakes, and Québec Marsh Monitoring Programs. Across all species, on average, detection probability was highest in the Great Lakes-St. Lawrence region from the beginning of May until mid-June, and then fell throughout the remainder of the season until the end of June; was lowest in the Prairie region in mid-May and then increased throughout the remainder of the season until the end of June; was highest during darkness compared with light; and did not vary significantly according to temperature (range: 0-30°C, cloud cover (0%-100%, or wind (0-20 kph, or during morning versus evening. We used our results to formulate improved marsh bird survey protocols for each region. Our analysis and recommendations are useful and contribute to conservation of wetland birds at various scales from local single-species studies to the continental North American Marsh Bird Monitoring Program.
For several years tracer migration experiments have been performed at Nagra's Grimsel Test Site as a joint undertaking of Nagra, PNC and PSI. The aims of modelling the migration experiments are (1) to better understand the nuclide transport through crystalline rock; (2) to gain information on validity of methods and correlating parameters; (3) to improve models for safety assessments. The PSI modelling results, presented here, show a consistent picture for the investigated tracers (the non-sorbing uranine, the weakly sorbing sodium, the moderately sorbing strontium and the more strongly sorbing cesium). They represent an important step in building up confidence in safety assessments for radioactive waste repositories. (author) 5 figs., 1 tab., 12 refs
Michtchenko, T. A.; Rodríguez, A.
The subject of this paper is the secular behaviour of a pair of planets evolving under dissipative forces. In particular, we investigate the case when dissipative forces affect the planetary semimajor axes and the planets move inwards/outwards the central star, in a process known as planet migration. To perform this investigation, we introduce fundamental concepts of conservative and dissipative dynamics of the three-body problem. Based on these concepts, we develop a qualitative model of the secular evolution of the migrating planetary pair. Our approach is based on the analysis of the energy and the orbital angular momentum exchange between the two-planet system and an external medium; thus no specific kind of dissipative forces is invoked. We show that, under the assumption that dissipation is weak and slow, the evolutionary routes of the migrating planets are traced by the Mode I and Mode II stationary solutions of the conservative secular problem. The ultimate convergence and the evolution of the system along one of these secular modes of motion are determined uniquely by the condition that the dissipation rate is sufficiently smaller than the proper secular frequency of the system. We show that it is possible to reassemble the starting configurations and the migration history of the systems on the basis of their final states and consequently to constrain the parameters of the physical processes involved.
Korner-Nievergelt, Fränzi; Brinkmann, Robert; Niermann, Ivo; Behr, Oliver
Environmental impacts of wind energy facilities increasingly cause concern, a central issue being bats and birds killed by rotor blades. Two approaches have been employed to assess collision rates: carcass searches and surveys of animals prone to collisions. Carcass searches can provide an estimate for the actual number of animals being killed but they offer little information on the relation between collision rates and, for example, weather parameters due to the time of death not being precisely known. In contrast, a density index of animals exposed to collision is sufficient to analyse the parameters influencing the collision rate. However, quantification of the collision rate from animal density indices (e.g. acoustic bat activity or bird migration traffic rates) remains difficult. We combine carcass search data with animal density indices in a mixture model to investigate collision rates. In a simulation study we show that the collision rates estimated by our model were at least as precise as conventional estimates based solely on carcass search data. Furthermore, if certain conditions are met, the model can be used to predict the collision rate from density indices alone, without data from carcass searches. This can reduce the time and effort required to estimate collision rates. We applied the model to bat carcass search data obtained at 30 wind turbines in 15 wind facilities in Germany. We used acoustic bat activity and wind speed as predictors for the collision rate. The model estimates correlated well with conventional estimators. Our model can be used to predict the average collision rate. It enables an analysis of the effect of parameters such as rotor diameter or turbine type on the collision rate. The model can also be used in turbine-specific curtailment algorithms that predict the collision rate and reduce this rate with a minimal loss of energy production.
Full Text Available Environmental impacts of wind energy facilities increasingly cause concern, a central issue being bats and birds killed by rotor blades. Two approaches have been employed to assess collision rates: carcass searches and surveys of animals prone to collisions. Carcass searches can provide an estimate for the actual number of animals being killed but they offer little information on the relation between collision rates and, for example, weather parameters due to the time of death not being precisely known. In contrast, a density index of animals exposed to collision is sufficient to analyse the parameters influencing the collision rate. However, quantification of the collision rate from animal density indices (e.g. acoustic bat activity or bird migration traffic rates remains difficult. We combine carcass search data with animal density indices in a mixture model to investigate collision rates. In a simulation study we show that the collision rates estimated by our model were at least as precise as conventional estimates based solely on carcass search data. Furthermore, if certain conditions are met, the model can be used to predict the collision rate from density indices alone, without data from carcass searches. This can reduce the time and effort required to estimate collision rates. We applied the model to bat carcass search data obtained at 30 wind turbines in 15 wind facilities in Germany. We used acoustic bat activity and wind speed as predictors for the collision rate. The model estimates correlated well with conventional estimators. Our model can be used to predict the average collision rate. It enables an analysis of the effect of parameters such as rotor diameter or turbine type on the collision rate. The model can also be used in turbine-specific curtailment algorithms that predict the collision rate and reduce this rate with a minimal loss of energy production.
French McCay, D.; Rowe, J.J.
The impact of an oil spill on bird and other wildlife species can be estimated using the Spill Impact Model Application Package (SIMAP). SIMAP estimates exposure and impact on bird species and their habitat based on physical fate and biological effects models under a broad range of environmental conditions. This paper presented the evaluations of 14 spill case studies which compared model predictions of biological impacts with field observations after a spill. Most of the observational data on the biological impacts of spills was for oiled birds and other wildlife. The impact of an oil spill on fish and invertebrates was examined in one case study. Error analysis was not performed on the field-base estimates of impact. Biological abundances and impacts are highly variable in time and space and very difficult to measure and quantify. Model-predicted and field-based estimates of oiled wildlife were compared. Uncertainty in the model-predicted number of oil wildlife was most related to mapping of biological distributions, behaviour of individuals, and local population density at the time of spill. The greatest uncertainty was the pre-spill abundance. The number of animals oils was found to be directly proportional to the pre-spill abundance assumed in the model inputs. Relative impact can be inferred from the percentage of population oiled. The total number oiled by a spill can be extrapolated using trajectories of oiled birds and counts of oiled animals collected in the field. 54 refs., 16 tabs., 12 figs
Full Text Available For the study of the macroecology and conservation of Taiwan’s birds, there was an urgent need to develop distribution models of bird species whose distribution had never before been modeled. Therefore, we here model the distributions of 27 mostly rare and cryptic breeding bird species using a statistical approach which has been shown to be especially reliable for modeling species with a low sample size of presence localities, namely the maximum entropy (Maxent modeling technique. For this purpose, we began with a dedicated attempt to collate as much high-quality distributional data as possible, assembling databases from several scientific reports, contacting individual data recorders and searching publicly accessible database, the internet and the available literature. This effort resulted in 2022 grid cells of 1 × 1 km size being associated with a presence record for one of the 27 species. These records and 10 pre-selected environmental variables were then used to model each species’ probability distribution which we show here with all grid cells below the lowest presence threshold being converted to zeros. We then in detail discuss the interpretation and applicability of these distributions, whereby we pay close attention to habitat requirements, the intactness and fragmentation of their habitat, the general detectability of the species and data reliability. This study is another one in an ongoing series of studies which highlight the usefulness of using large electronic databases and modern analytical methods to help with the monitoring and assessment of Taiwan’s bird species.
Velichko, O.I.; Burunova, O.N.
A model of the interstitial migration of ion-implanted dopant in silicon during low-temperature thermal treatment has been formulated. It is supposed that the boron interstitials are created during ion implantation or at the initial stage of annealing. During thermal treatment a migration of these impurity interstitials to the surface and in the bulk of a semiconductor occurs. On this basis, a simulation of boron redistribution during thermal annealing for 35 minutes at a temperature of 800 0 C has been carried out. The calculated boron profile agrees well with the experimental data. A number of the parameters describing the interstitial diffusion have been derived. In particular, the average migration length of nonequilibrium boron interstitials is equal to 0.092 μm at a temperature of 800 0 C. To carry out modeling of ion-implanted boron redistribution, the analytical solutions of nonstationary diffusion equation for impurity interstitials have been obtained. The case of Dirichlet boundary conditions and the case of reflecting boundary on the surface of a semiconductor have been considered. (authors)
Bacause of high development costs of IC (Integrated Circuit)test programs,recycling existing test programs from one kind of ATE (Automatic Test Equipment) to another or generating directly from CAD simulation modules to ATE is more and more valuable.In this paper,a new approach to migrating test programs is presented.A virtual ATE model based on object-oriented paradigm is developed;it runs Test C++ (an intermediate test control language) programs and TeIF(Test Inftermediate Format-an intermediate pattern),migrates test programs among three kinds of ATE (Ando DIC8032,Schlumberger S15 and GenRad 1732) and generates test patterns from two kinds of CAD 9Daisy and Panda) automatically.
A mathematical model for collisions between birds and propeller-type turbine rotors identifies the variables that can be manipulated to reduce the probability that birds will collide with the rotor. This study defines a safety index--the clearance power density--that allows rotors of different sizes and designs to be compared in terms of the amount of wind energy converted to electrical energy per bird collision. The collision model accounts for variations in wind speed during the year and shows that for model rotors with simple, one-dimensional blades, the safety index increases in proportion to rotor diameter, and variable speed rotors have higher safety indexes than constant speed rotors. The safety index can also be increased by enlarging the region near the center of the rotor hub where the blades move slowly enough for birds to avoid them. Painting the blades to make them more visible might have this effect. Model rotors with practical designs can have safety indexes an order of magnitude higher than those for model rotors typical of the constant speeds rotors in common use today. This finding suggests that redesigned rotors could have collision rates with birds perhaps an order of magnitude lower than today's rotors, with no reduction in the production of wind power. The empirical data that exist for collisions between raptors, such as hawks and eagles, and rotors are consistent with the model: the numbers of raptor carcasses found beneath large variable speed rotors, relative to the numbers found under small constant speed rotors, are in the proportions predicted by the collision model rather than in proportion to the areas swept by the rotor blades. However, uncontrolled variables associated with these data prevent a stronger claim of support for the model
Masden, Elizabeth A; Reeve, Richard; Desholm, Mark; Fox, Anthony D; Furness, Robert W; Haydon, Daniel T
Advances in technology and engineering, along with European Union renewable energy targets, have stimulated a rapid growth of the wind power sector. Wind farms contribute to carbon emission reductions, but there is a need to ensure that these structures do not adversely impact the populations that interact with them, particularly birds. We developed movement models based on observed avoidance responses of common eider Somateria mollissima to wind farms to predict, and identify potential measures to reduce, impacts. Flight trajectory data that were collected post-construction of the Danish Nysted offshore wind farm were used to parameterize competing models of bird movements around turbines. The model most closely fitting the observed data incorporated individual variation in the minimum distance at which birds responded to the turbines. We show how such models can contribute to the spatial planning of wind farms by assessing their extent, turbine spacing and configurations on the probability of birds passing between the turbines. Avian movement models can make new contributions to environmental assessments of wind farm developments, and provide insights into how to reduce impacts that can be identified at the planning stage.
Kejser, Ulla Bøgvad; Nielsen, Anders Bo; Thirifays, Alex
The Danish Ministry of Culture is currently funding a project to set up a model for costing preservation of digital materials held by national cultural heritage institutions. The overall objective of the project is to provide a basis for comparing and estimating future financial requirements...... for digital preservation and to increase cost effectiveness of digital preservation activities. In this study we describe an activity based costing methodology for digital preservation based on the OAIS Reference Model. In order to estimate the cost of digital migrations we have identified cost critical...
Robin E. Russell; Victoria A. Saab; Jonathan G. Dudley
Models of habitat suitability in postfire landscapes are needed by land managers to make timely decisions regarding postfire timber harvest and other management activities. Many species of cavity-nesting birds are dependent on postfire landscapes for breeding and other aspects of their life history and are responsive to postfire management activities (e.g., timber...
John D. Alexander; Jaime L. Stephens; Sam Veloz; Leo Salas; Josée S. Rousseau; C. John Ralph; Daniel A. Sarr
As data about populations of indicator species become available, proactive strategies that improve representation of biological diversity within protected area networks should consider finer-scaled evaluations, especially in regions identified as important through course-scale analyses. We use density distribution models derived from a robust regional bird...
Michtchenko, T. A.; Rodríguez, A.
The secular regime of motion of multi-planetary systems is universal; in contrast with the 'accidental' resonant motion, characteristic only for specific configurations of the planets, secular motion is present everywhere in phase space, even inside the resonant region. The secular behavior of a pair of planets evolving under dissipative forces is the principal subject of this study, particularly, the case when the dissipative forces affect the planetary semi-major axes and the planets move inward/outward the central star, the process known as planet migration. Based on the fundamental concepts of conservative and dissipative dynamics of the three-body problem, we develop a qualitative model of the secular evolution of the migrating planetary pair. Our approach is based on analysis of the energy and the orbital angular momentum exchange between the two-planet system and an external medium; thus no specific kind of dissipative forces is invoked. We show that, under assumption that dissipation is weak and slow, the evolutionary routes of the migrating planets are traced by the Mode I and Mode II stationary solutions of the conservative secular problem. The ultimate convergence and the evolution of the system along one of these secular modes of motion is determined uniquely by the condition that the dissipation rate is sufficiently smaller than the proper secular frequency of the system. We show that it is possible to reassemble the starting configurations and migration history of the systems on the basis of their final states and consequently to constrain the parameters of the physical processes involved.
Zaccarelli, R.; Elemans, C.P.H.; Fitch, W.T.; Herzel, H.
We analyze two symmetric two-mass models of the avian syrinx. Our first model applies to songbirds and is a rescaled version of the well-known human two-mass model. Our second model (trapezoidal model) introduces a smoother geometry and is used to simulate the ring dove (Streptopelia risoria)
. Localization of the three major cell types within the migrating slug stage is a dynamic process (Sternfeld 1992;. A model for cell type localization in the migrating slug of Dictyostelium discoideum based on differential chemotactic sensitivity to ...
BARNEA, ANAT; PRAVOSUDOV, VLADIMIR
During the last few decades evidence has demonstrated that adult neurogenesis is a well-preserved feature throughout the animal kingdom. In birds, ongoing neuronal addition occurs rather broadly, to a number of brain regions. This review describes adult avian neurogenesis and neuronal recruitment, discusses factors that regulate these processes, and touches upon the question of their genetic control. Several attributes make birds an extremely advantageous model to study neurogenesis. First, song learning exhibits seasonal variation that is associated with seasonal variation in neuronal turnover in some song control brain nuclei, which seems to be regulated via adult neurogenesis. Second, food-caching birds naturally use memory-dependent behavior in learning locations of thousands of food caches scattered over their home ranges. In comparison with other birds, food-caching species have relatively enlarged hippocampi with more neurons and intense neurogenesis, which appears to be related to spatial learning. Finally, migratory behavior and naturally occurring social systems in birds also provide opportunities to investigate neurogenesis. Such diversity of naturally-occurring memory-based behaviors, combined with the fact that birds can be studied both in the wild and in the laboratory, make them ideal for investigation of neural processes underlying learning. This can be done by using various approaches, from evolutionary and comparative to neuroethological and molecular. Finally, we connect the avian arena to a broader view by providing a brief comparative and evolutionary overview of adult neurogenesis and by discussing the possible functional role of the new neurons. We conclude by indicating future directions and possible medical applications. PMID:21929623
1-D numerical model for safety assessment of spent fuel disposal have been developed. The numerical solution with planar geometric was developed in order to solve mass transport in heterogenous geological media. In this paper, Crank-Nicolson method was discussed for solving of radionuclide migration equation. Demonstration was done for calculation of concentration distribution of several radionuclides in the exclusion zone. It was concluded that the exclusion zone was an important concept should be adopted in determination of disposal site. Site should be selected as far as possible from fracture or as long as possible exclusion zone. (author)
The NEA workshop reflect the present status in national waste management program, specifically in spatial variability and performance assessment of geologic disposal sites for deed repository system the four sessions were: Spatial Variability: Its Definition and Significance to Performance Assessment and Site Characterisation; Experience with the Modelling of Radionuclide Migration in the Presence of Spatial Variability in Various Geological Environments; New Areas for Investigation: Two Personal Views; What is Wanted and What is Feasible: Views and Future Plans in Selected Waste Management Organisations. The 26 papers presented on the four oral sessions and on the poster session have been abstracted and indexed individually for the INIS database. (R.P.)
Kejser, Ulla Bøgvad; Nielsen, Anders Bo; Thirifays, Alex
The Danish Ministry of Culture has funded a project to set up a model for costing preservation of digital materials held by national cultural heritage institutions. The overall objective of the project was to increase cost effectiveness of digital preservation activities and to provide a basis...... for comparing and estimating future cost requirements for digital preservation. In this study we describe an activity-based costing methodology for digital preservation based on the Open Archice Information System (OAIS) Reference Model. Within this framework, which we denote the Cost Model for Digital...... Preservation (CMDP), the focus is on costing the functional entity Preservation Planning from the OAIS and digital migration activities. In order to estimate these costs we have identified cost-critical activities by analysing the functions in the OAIS model and the flows between them. The analysis has been...
"To date, most migration models have been specified in terms of a single equation, whereby a set of regional characteristics are used to predict migration rates for various kinds of spatial units. These models are inadequate in at least two respects. First, they omit any causal links between the explanatory variables, thus ignoring indirect effects between these variables and migration. Second, they ignore the possibility of reciprocal causation, or feedback effects, between migration and the explanatory variables...." The author uses data for State Economic Areas to construct a path model and simultaneous-equation model to identify both indirect and feedback effects on migration in the Upper Midwestern United States. "On the basis of the path model, it is suggested that the direct effects of many variables on migration are at least partially offset by the indirect effects, whereas the simultaneous-equation model emphasizes the reciprocal relationship between income and migration." excerpt
Zhou Wei; Stenhouse, M.J.; Arthur, R.
Injecting CO 2 into oil and gas field is a way to enhance oil recovery (EOR) as well as mitigate global warming effect by permanently storing the greenhouse gas into underground. This paper details the models and results of simulating the long-term migration of CO 2 injected into the Weyburn field for both Enhanced Oil Recovery operations and CO 2 sequestration. A System Model was established to define the spatial and temporal extents of the analysis. The Base Scenario was developed to identify key processes, features, and events (FEPs) for the expected evolution of the storage system. A compositional reservoir simulator with equations-of-states (EOS) was used as the modeling tool in order to simulate multiphase, multi-component flow and transport coupled with CO 2 mass partitioning into oil, gas, and water phases. We apply a deterministic treatment to CO 2 migration in the geosphere (natural pathways), whereas the variability of abandoned wells (man-made pathways) necessitates a stochastic treatment. The simulation result was then used to carry out consequence analysis to the local environment. (authors)
This thesis addresses the efficiency improvement of seismic wave modeling and migration in anisotropic media. This improvement becomes crucial in practice as the process of imaging complex geological structures of the Earth's subsurface requires
Students use a dead bird to learn about bird life, anatomy, and death. Students examine a bird body and discuss what happened to the bird. Uses outdoor education as a resource for learning about animals. (SAH)
Klaassen, M.R.J.; Lindstrom, A.
Lindstrom & Alerstam (1992 Am. Nat. 140, 477-491) presented a model that predicts optimal departure fuel loads as a function of the rate of fuel deposition in time-minimizing migrants. The basis of the model is that the coverable distance per unit of fuel deposited, diminishes with increasing fuel
S. M. Aleksankov
Full Text Available Subject of Research. The processes of live migration without shared storage with pre-copy approach and move migration are researched. Migration of virtual machines is an important opportunity of virtualization technology. It enables applications to move transparently with their runtime environments between physical machines. Live migration becomes noticeable technology for efficient load balancing and optimizing the deployment of virtual machines to physical hosts in data centres. Before the advent of live migration, only network migration (the so-called, «Move», has been used, that entails stopping the virtual machine execution while copying to another physical server, and, consequently, unavailability of the service. Method. Algorithms of live migration without shared storage with pre-copy approach and move migration of virtual machines are reviewed from the perspective of research of migration time and unavailability of services at migrating of virtual machines. Main Results. Analytical models are proposed predicting migration time of virtual machines and unavailability of services at migrating with such technologies as live migration with pre-copy approach without shared storage and move migration. In the latest works on the time assessment of unavailability of services and migration time using live migration without shared storage experimental results are described, that are applicable to draw general conclusions about the changes of time for unavailability of services and migration time, but not to predict their values. Practical Significance. The proposed models can be used for predicting the migration time and time of unavailability of services, for example, at implementation of preventive and emergency works on the physical nodes in data centres.
Heer, W.; Hadermann, J.
In the migration field experiments at Nagra's Grimsel Test Site, the processes of nuclide transport through a well defined fractured shear-zone in crystalline rock are being investigated. For these experiments, model calculations have been performed to obtain indications on validity and limitation of the model applied and the data deduced under field conditions. The model consists of a hydrological part, where the dipole flow fields of the experiments are determined, and a nuclide transport part, where the flow field driven nuclide propagation through the shear-zone is calculated. In addition to the description of the model, analytical expressions are given to guide the interpretation of experimental results. From the analysis of experimental breakthrough curves for conservative uranine, weakly sorbing sodium and more stronger sorbing strontium tracers, the following main results can be derived: i) The model is able to represent the breakthrough curves of the migration field experiments to a high degree of accuracy, ii) The process of matrix diffusion is manifest through the tails of the breakthrough curves decreasing with time as t -3/2 and through the special shape of the tail ends, both confirmed by the experiments, iii) For nuclide sorbing rapidly, not too strongly, linearly, and exhibiting a reversible cation exchange process on fault gouge, the laboratory sorption coefficient can reasonably well be extrapolated to field conditions. Adequate care in selecting and preparing the rock samples is, of course, a necessary requirement. Using the parameters determined in the previous analysis, predictions are made for experiments in a smaller an faster flow field. For conservative uranine and weakly sorbing sodium, the agreement of predicted and measured breakthrough curves is good, for the more stronger sorbing strontium reasonable, confirming that the model describes the main nuclide transport processes adequately. (author) figs., tabs., 29 refs
Friedl, P.H.A.; Wolf, K. van der
Cell migration underlies tissue formation, maintenance, and regeneration as well as pathological conditions such as cancer invasion. Structural and molecular determinants of both tissue environment and cell behavior define whether cells migrate individually (through amoeboid or mesenchymal modes) or
Vrankar, L.; Turk, G.; Runovc, F.
To assess the long term safety of a radioactive waste disposal system, mathematical models are used to describe groundwater flow, chemistry and potential radionuclide migration through geological formations. A number of processes need to be considered when predicting the movement of radionuclides through the geosphere. The most important input data are obtained from field measurements, which are not completely available for all regions of interest. For example, the hydraulic conductivity as an input parameter varies from place to place. In such cases geostatistical science offers a variety of spatial estimation procedures. Methods for solving the solute transport equation can also be classified as Eulerian, Lagrangian and mixed. The numerical solution of partial differential equations (PDE) is usually obtained by finite difference methods (FDM), finite element methods (FEM), or finite volume methods (FVM). Kansa introduced the concept of solving partial differential equations using radial basis functions (RBF) for hyperbolic, parabolic and elliptic PDEs. Our goal was to present a relatively new approach to the modelling of radionuclide migration through the geosphere using radial basis function methods in Eulerian and Lagrangian coordinates. Radionuclide concentrations will also be calculated in heterogeneous and partly heterogeneous 2D porous media. We compared the meshless method with the traditional finite difference scheme. (author)
Alkhalifah, Tariq Ali
The double-square-root equation is commonly used to image data by downward continuation using one-way depth extrapolation methods. A two-way time extrapolation of the double-square-root-derived phase operator allows for up and downgoing wavefields but suffers from an essential singularity for horizontally travelling waves. This singularity is also associated with an anisotropic version of the double-square-root extrapolator. Perturbation theory allows us to separate the isotropic contribution, as well as the singularity, from the anisotropic contribution to the operator. As a result, the anisotropic residual operator is free from such singularities and can be applied as a stand alone operator to correct for anisotropy. We can apply the residual anisotropy operator even if the original prestack wavefield was obtained using, for example, reverse-time migration. The residual correction is also useful for anisotropic parameter estimation. Applications to synthetic data demonstrate the accuracy of the new prestack modelling and migration approach. It also proves useful in approximately imaging the Vertical Transverse Isotropic Marmousi model.
Follow-up on the migration of birds of prey at L'Anse-a-Valleau wind park site : preliminary report; Suivi de la migration des oiseaux de proie sur le site d'implantation du parc eolien de l'Anse-a-Valleau : rapport preliminaire
Castonguay, M.; Beauchesne, J.A.; Boulianne, F.; Bujold, J.; Ouellet, J.F. [Pesca Environnement, Maria, PQ (Canada)
Cartier Wind Power plans to install a wind turbine array at L'Anse-a-Valleau in the Gaspe Peninsula. This study evaluated the impact of the proposed wind turbine array on the thousands of birds of prey that fly along Quebec's St. Lawrence River each year. Their migration patterns were evaluated through visual and auditory observations during the springtime reproductive and nesting season. The proposed 100.5 MW wind turbine park in L'Anse-a-Valleau was presented to the Quebec Ministry of Sustainable Development, Environment and Parks. In order to complete a feasibility study for this project, it was necessary to document and characterize the spring migration pattern of birds of prey in the area. An inventory of raptors was carried out between April 1 and May 14, 2005. This current study supplemented an existing inventory from a previous study carried out in the spring of 2003. This current study included data on dates of observations of the migratory birds over a 12 day period in L'Anse-a-Valleau as well as Lac du Grand Etang. During the 12 day observation period, bird watching took place for about four hours a day, from 10:00 to 15:00, given favourable weather conditions such as absence of rain and good visibility. Overall, 14 birds of prey were observed over a period of 44 hours. With 5 sightings, the red-tailed hawk was the most frequently observed species during this study. Very few signs of migration were noticed in L'Anse-a-Valleau. The results indicate that this region is not on the migratory path of birds of prey during their flight on the south side of the Saint-Lawrence River. 6 refs., 1 tab., 4 figs., 3 appendices.
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This data set contains sensitive biological resource data for wading birds, shorebirds, waterfowl, raptors, diving birds, pelagic birds, passerine birds, and gulls...
Christopher L. Coxen
Full Text Available Species distribution models can provide critical baseline distribution information for the conservation of poorly understood species. Here, we compared the performance of band-tailed pigeon (Patagioenas fasciata species distribution models created using Maxent and derived from two separate presence-only occurrence data sources in New Mexico: 1 satellite tracked birds and 2 observations reported in eBird basic data set. Both models had good accuracy (test AUC > 0.8 and True Skill Statistic > 0.4, and high overlap between suitability scores (I statistic 0.786 and suitable habitat patches (relative rank 0.639. Our results suggest that, at the state-wide level, eBird occurrence data can effectively model similar species distributions as satellite tracking data. Climate change models for the band-tailed pigeon predict a 35% loss in area of suitable climate by 2070 if CO2 emissions drop to 1990 levels by 2100, and a 45% loss by 2070 if we continue current CO2 emission levels through the end of the century. These numbers may be conservative given the predicted increase in drought, wildfire, and forest pest impacts to the coniferous forests the species inhabits in New Mexico. The northern portion of the species’ range in New Mexico is predicted to be the most viable through time.
Coxen, Christopher L.; Frey, Jennifer K.; Carleton, Scott A.; Collins, Daniel P.
Species distribution models can provide critical baseline distribution information for the conservation of poorly understood species. Here, we compared the performance of band-tailed pigeon (Patagioenas fasciata) species distribution models created using Maxent and derived from two separate presence-only occurrence data sources in New Mexico: 1) satellite tracked birds and 2) observations reported in eBird basic data set. Both models had good accuracy (test AUC > 0.8 and True Skill Statistic > 0.4), and high overlap between suitability scores (I statistic 0.786) and suitable habitat patches (relative rank 0.639). Our results suggest that, at the state-wide level, eBird occurrence data can effectively model similar species distributions as satellite tracking data. Climate change models for the band-tailed pigeon predict a 35% loss in area of suitable climate by 2070 if CO2 emissions drop to 1990 levels by 2100, and a 45% loss by 2070 if we continue current CO2 emission levels through the end of the century. These numbers may be conservative given the predicted increase in drought, wildfire, and forest pest impacts to the coniferous forests the species inhabits in New Mexico. The northern portion of the species’ range in New Mexico is predicted to be the most viable through time.
Follow-up on the migration of birds of prey at the Baie-des-Sables wind park site : preliminary report; Suivi de la migration des oiseaux de proie sur le site d'implantation du parc eolien de Baie-des-Sables : rapport preliminaire
Castonguay, M.; Beauchesne, J.A.; Boulianne, F.; Bujold, J.; Ouellet, J.F. [Pesca Environnement, Maria, PQ (Canada)
Cartier Wind Power plans to install a wind turbine array at Baie-des-Sables in the Gaspe Peninsula. This study evaluated the impact of the proposed wind turbine array on the thousands of birds of prey that fly along Quebec's St. Lawrence River each year. Their migration patterns were evaluated through visual and auditory observations during the springtime reproductive and nesting season. The proposed 109.5 MW wind turbine park in Baie-des-Sables was presented to the Quebec Ministry of Sustainable Development, Environment and Parks. In order to complete a feasibility study for this project, it was necessary to document and characterize the spring migration pattern of birds of prey in the area. An inventory of raptors was carried out between March 31 and May 23, 2005. This current study supplemented an existing inventory from a previous study carried out in the spring of 2004. This current study included data on dates of observations of the migratory birds during the monitoring period. Nine species of birds of prey were identified. Overall, 448 individual birds were observed over a total period of 92 hours. With 137 sightings of the red-tailed hawk and 95 sightings of the rough-legged hawk, these 2 species were the most frequently indexed species, accounting for 51.8 per cent of the sightings. No evidence of nesting particular to birds of prey was observed at the site. The flight patterns of the birds were also observed with reference to height and direction of flight. 7 refs., 4 tabs., 1 fig., 3 appendices.
James F. Selgrade; James H. Roberds
This study presents a discrete-time model for the effects of selection and immigration on the demographic and genetic compositions of a population. Under biologically reasonable conditions, it is shown that the model always has an equilibrium. Although equilibria for similar models without migration must have real eigenvalues, for this selection-migration model we...
Masden, Elizabeth A.; Reeve, Richard; Desholm, Mark; Fox, Anthony D.; Furness, Robert W.; Haydon, Daniel T.
Advances in technology and engineering, along with European Union renewable energy targets, have stimulated a rapid growth of the wind power sector. Wind farms contribute to carbon emission reductions, but there is a need to ensure that these structures do not adversely impact the populations that interact with them, particularly birds. We developed movement models based on observed avoidance responses of common eider Somateria mollissima to wind farms to predict, and identify potential measu...
Full Text Available Ringing of birds unveiled many aspects of avian migration and dispersal movements. However, there is even much more to be explored by the use of ringing and other marks. Dispersal is crucial in understanding the initial phase of migration in migrating birds as it is to understand patterns and processes of distribution and gene flow. So far, the analysis of migration was largely based on analysing spatial and temporal patters of recoveries of ringed birds. However, there are considerable biases and pitfalls in using recoveries due to spatial and temporal variation in reporting probabilities. Novel methods are required for future studies separating the confounding effects of spatial and temporal heterogeneity of recovery data and heterogeneity of the landscape as well. These novel approaches should aim a more intensive and novel use of the existing recovery data by taking advantage of, for instance, dynamic and multistate modeling, should elaborate schemes for future studies, and should also include other marks that allow a more rapid data collection, like telemetry, geolocation and global positioning systems, and chemical and molecular markers. The latter appear to be very useful in the delineating origin of birds and connectivity between breeding and non–breeding grounds. Many studies of migration are purely descriptive. However, King and Brooks (King & Brooks, 2004 examine if movement patterns of dolphins change after the introduction of a gillnet ban. Bayesian methods are an interesting approach to this problem as they provide a meaningful measure of the probability that such a change occurred rather than simple yes/no response that is often the result of classical statistical methods. However, the key difficulty of a general implementation of Bayesian methods is the complexity of the modelling —there is no general userfriendly package that is easily accessible to most scientists. Drake and Alisauskas (Drake & Alisauskas, 2004 examine the
Tompkins, J. A.; Butler, A. P.; Wheater, H. S.; Shaw, G.; Wadey, P.; Bell, J. N. B.
Lysimeter-based studies of radionuclide uptake by winter wheat are being undertaken to investigate soil-to-plant transfer processes. A five year multi-disciplinary research project has concentrated on the upward migration of contaminants from near surface water-tables and their subsequent uptake by a winter wheat crop. A weighted transfer factor approach and a physically based modelling methodology, for the simulation and prediction of radionuclide uptake, have been developed which offer alternatives to the traditional transfer factor approach. Integrated hydrological and solute transport models are used to simulate contaminant movement and subsequent root uptake. This approach enables prediction of radionuclide transport for a wide range of soil, plant and radionuclide types. This paper presents simulated results of 22 Na plant uptake and soil activity profiles, which are verified with respect to lysimeter data. The results demonstrate that a simple modelling approach can describe the variability in radioactivity in both the harvested crop and the soil profile, without recourse to a large number of empirical parameters. The proposed modelling technique should be readily applicable to a range of scales and conditions, since it embodies an understanding of the underlying physical processes of the system. This work constitutes part of an ongoing research programme being undertaken by UK Nirex Ltd., to assess the long term safety of a deep level repository for low and intermediate level nuclear waste. (author)
Morelissen, Robin; Hulscher, Suzanne J.M.H.; Knaapen, Michiel; Nemeth, Attila; Bijker, Romke
A new method is presented for identifying potential pipeline problems, such as hazardous exposures. This method comprises a newly developed sand wave amplitude and migration model, and an existing pipeline–seabed interaction model. The sand wave migration model is based on physical principles and
Dieterich, Peter; Preuss, Roland
Cell migration plays an essential role under many physiological and patho-physiological conditions. It is of major importance during embryonic development and wound healing. In contrast, it also generates negative effects during inflammation processes, the transmigration of tumors or the formation of metastases. Thus, a reliable quantification and characterization of cell paths could give insight into the dynamics of these processes. Typically stochastic models are applied where parameters are extracted by fitting models to the so-called mean square displacement of the observed cell group. We show that this approach has several disadvantages and problems. Therefore, we propose a simple procedure directly relying on the positions of the cell's trajectory and the covariance matrix of the positions. It is shown that the covariance is identical with the spatial aging correlation function for the supposed linear Gaussian models of Brownian motion with drift and fractional Brownian motion. The technique is applied and illustrated with simulated data showing a reliable parameter estimation from single cell paths.
Yates, Christian A; Parker, Andrew; Baker, Ruth E
The macroscale movement behavior of a wide range of isolated migrating cells has been well characterized experimentally. Recently, attention has turned to understanding the behavior of cells in crowded environments. In such scenarios it is possible for cells to interact, inducing neighboring cells to move in order to make room for their own movements or progeny. Although the behavior of interacting cells has been modeled extensively through volume-exclusion processes, few models, thus far, have explicitly accounted for the ability of cells to actively displace each other in order to create space for themselves. In this work we consider both on- and off-lattice volume-exclusion position-jump processes in which cells are explicitly allowed to induce movements in their near neighbors in order to create space for themselves to move or proliferate into. We refer to this behavior as pushing. From these simple individual-level representations we derive continuum partial differential equations for the average occupancy of the domain. We find that, for limited amounts of pushing, comparison between the averaged individual-level simulations and the population-level model is nearly as good as in the scenario without pushing. Interestingly, we find that, in the on-lattice case, the diffusion coefficient of the population-level model is increased by pushing, whereas, for the particular off-lattice model that we investigate, the diffusion coefficient is reduced. We conclude, therefore, that it is important to consider carefully the appropriate individual-level model to use when representing complex cell-cell interactions such as pushing.
Zaugg, S.; Saporta, G.; van Loon, E.; Schmaljohann, H.; Liechti, F.
Bird identification with radar is important for bird migration research, environmental impact assessments (e.g. wind farms), aircraft security and radar meteorology. In a study on bird migration, radar signals from birds, insects and ground clutter were recorded. Signals from birds show a typical
Dennhardt, Andrew J.; Duerr, Adam E.; Brandes, David; Katzner, Todd
Estimates of population abundance are important to wildlife management and conservation. However, it can be difficult to characterize the numbers of broadly distributed, low-density, and elusive bird species. Although Golden Eagles (Aquila chrysaetos) are rare, difficult to detect, and broadly distributed, they are concentrated during their autumn migration at monitoring sites in eastern North America. We used hawk-count data collected by citizen scientists in a virtual mark–recapture modeling analysis to estimate the numbers of Golden Eagles that migrate in autumn along Kittatinny Ridge, an Important Bird Area in Pennsylvania, USA. In order to evaluate the sensitivity of our abundance estimates to variation in eagle capture histories, we applied candidate models to 8 different sets of capture histories, constructed with or without age-class information and using known mean flight speeds 6 1, 2, 4, or 6 SE for eagles to travel between hawk-count sites. Although some abundance estimates were produced by models that poorly fitted the data (ĉ > 3.0), 2 sets of population estimates were produced by acceptably performing models (cˆ less than or equal to 3.0). Application of these models to count data from November, 2002–2011, suggested a mean population abundance of 1,354 6 117 SE (range: 873–1,938). We found that Golden Eagles left the ridgeline at different rates and in different places along the route, and that typically ,50% of individuals were detected at the hawk-count sites. Our study demonstrates a useful technique for estimating population abundance that may be applicable to other migrant species that are repeatedly detected at multiple monitoring sites along a topographic diversion or leading line.
Full Text Available The national census data during 1995 and 2000 and during 2005 and 2010 are selected in this paper to make an analysis of the spatio-temporal characteristics of the inter-provincial population migration in China. In addition, the general regression model, the extension regression model considering the historical dependent variable and the spatial lag model are established based on the gravity model to make the regression model on China’s inter-provincial population migration over two periods of time. The results show that: (1 the inter-provincial population migration increases rapidly in size with strong geographical proximity; (2 China’s inter-provincial population migration is still in the primary stage of the general process of population migration. In other words, the inter-provincial population emigration and immigration levels have increased greatly with the economic development; (3 Statistically, the inter-provincial population migration is negatively correlated with the level of economic development in the emigrant place and the migration distance and positively correlated with the level of economic development in the immigrant place and the population scale in the emigrant and immigrant places; and (4 The spatio-temporal factor is an important explanatory variable of population migration. The introduction of the historical dependent variable and the spatial lag factor can improve the regression effect of the gravity model greatly, and the historical variable and the spatial factor have strong explanatory power for the inter-provincial population migration.
Gomez M, Ana Maria; Alvarez, Esteban
Recently, thanks to advances made in Geographic Information Systems (GIS), techniques have been developed for the construction of models that predict the spatial distribution of species and other attributes of biodiversity. These methods have allowed for the development of objective criteria that are fundamental for making decisions regarding the creation of protected areas systems throughout the world. In this research, the spatial distribution of ten endangered species of birds found within the jurisdiction of CORANTIOQUIA (JDC from here on) was modelled, using GIS techniques. The JDC was divided into 177 squares of 15 x 10 Km and the following variables were quantified within each one: presence or absence of endangered species of birds, rainfall, temperature, sun brightness, relative humidity, day duration, altitude, vegetal cover, slope and primary net productivity. With the help of logistic regression were made predictive models. Based on logistic regressions techniques predictive models were made. These models allow to explain a percentage between 24% and 80% of spatial distribution variability of these species. Those results can help in the identification of valuable zones for the biodiversity conservation. In places where there are neither the time or the economic resources to carry out exhaustive analyses of biodiversity, the models can predict the probable presence of this endangered species
Muzyczyn, Adam; Shaw, Leah B.
The H5N1 strain of avian influenza has spread worldwide, and this spread may be due to seasonal migration of birds and mixing of birds from different regions in the wintering grounds. We studied a multipatch model for avian influenza with seasonally varying migration rates. The bird population was divided into two spatially distinct patches, or subpopulations. Within each patch, the disease followed the SIR (susceptible-infected-recovered) model for epidemic spread. Migration rates were varied periodically, with a net flux toward the breeding grounds during the spring and towards the wintering grounds during the fall. The case of two symmetric patches reduced to single-patch SIR dynamics. However, asymmetry in the birth and contact rates in the breeding grounds and wintering grounds led to bifurcations to longer period orbits and chaotic dynamics. We studied the bifurcation structure of the model and the phase relationships between outbreaks in the two patches.
Two solutions of the migration equations are described. The first relates to the transport equations for the decay chain Am 243→Pu 239→U 235. Numerical integration was performed in this case by a simulation code written in CSMP III language and plutonium is considered to be all in the same chemical form. The second case relates to the problem of Pu speciation and migration. The decay chain Pu 240→U 236 is considered and numerical integration is performed by a modified version of Bo code COLUMN. Pseudo first order reactions are supposed to act between Pu states to maintain equilibrium during the migration
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This data set contains sensitive biological resource data for wading birds, shorebirds, waterfowl, raptors, diving birds, seabirds, passerine birds, gulls, and terns...
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This data set contains sensitive biological resource data for wading birds, shorebirds, waterfowl, raptors, diving birds, seabirds, passerine birds, and gulls and...
De Wan, A. A.; Sullivan, P.J.; Lembo, A.J.; Smith, C.R.; Maerz, J.C.; Lassoie, J.P.; Richmond, M.E.
As urban development continues to encroach on the natural and rural landscape, land-use planners struggle to identify high priority conservation areas for protection. Although knowing where urban-sensitive species may be occurring on the landscape would facilitate conservation planning, research efforts are often not sufficiently designed to make quality predictions at unknown locations. Recent advances in occupancy modeling allow for more precise estimates of occupancy by accounting for differences in detectability. We applied these techniques to produce robust estimates of habitat occupancy for a subset of forest breeding birds, a group that has been shown to be sensitive to urbanization, in a rapidly urbanizing yet biological diverse region of New York State. We found that detection probability ranged widely across species, from 0.05 to 0.8. Our models suggest that detection probability declined with increasing forest fragmentation. We also found that the probability of occupancy of forest breeding birds is negatively influenced by increasing perimeter-area ratio of forest fragments and urbanization in the surrounding habitat matrix. We capitalized on our random sampling design to produce spatially explicit models that predict high priority conservation areas across the entire region, where interior-species were most likely to occur. Finally, we use our predictive maps to demonstrate how a strict sampling design coupled with occupancy modeling can be a valuable tool for prioritizing biodiversity conservation in land-use planning. ?? 2009 Elsevier Ltd.
This thesis studies simulations of the slow displacement of a wetting fluid by a non-wetting fluid in porous media and in a single fracture. The simulations are based on the invasion percolation model. New modified versions of the model are presented that simulate migration, fragmentation and coalescence processes of the clusters of non-wetting fluid. The resulting displacement patterns are characterized by scaling laws. In particular, simulations of the secondary migration of oil through porous homogeneous rock are discussed. Fractured rocks are extreme cases of inhomogeneous porous media. Simulations of the slow displacement of a wetting fluid by a non-wetting fluid in a single fracture using the standard invasion model are presented. There is a discussion of a scenario in which a cluster of non-wetting fluid migrates through a porous medium that was saturated with a wetting fluid. The migration is driven by continuously driven buoyancy forces. Both experiments and simulations are described. The same scenario is also studied theoretically and by simulations using a simplified percolation model of fluid migration in one dimension. The migration model in two dimensions, with constant buoyancy forces, is also discussed. Simulations of fluid migration, such as the secondary migration of oil, in two- and three-dimensional media are examined, the media having multi-affine properties rather than being homogeneous. Slow immiscible displacement processes in single fractures are studied using fractal geometries to model single fractures. 167 refs., 123 figs.
Swift, B.T.; Hoch, A.R.; Rodwell, W.R. [AEA Technology (United Kingdom)
This report describes the second phase of a programme of work to develop a computational model of gas migration through highly compacted bentonite. Experimental data that have appeared since the earlier report are reviewed for the additional information they might provide on the mechanism of gas migration in bentonite. Experiments carried out by Horseman and Harrigton (British Geological Survey) continued to provide the main data sets used in model evaluation. The earlier work (POSIVA Report 98-08) had resulted in a preliminary model of gas migration whose main features are gas invasion by microcrack propagation, and dilation of the pathways formed with increasing gas pressure. New work was carried out to further explore the capabilities of this model. In addition, a feature was added to the model to simulate gas pathway creation by water displacement rather than crack propagation. The development of a new alternative gas migration model is described. This is based on a volume-averaged representation of gas migration rather than on a description of flow in discrete pathways. Evaluation of this alternative model showed that it can produce similar agreement with experimental results to the other models examined. The implications of flow geometry, confining conditions and flow boundary conditions on gas migration behaviour in bentonite are reviewed. Proposals are made for the development of the new model into a tool for simulating gas migration through a bentonite buffer around a waste canister, and for possible enhancements to the model that might remove some of its currently perceived deficiencies. (orig.)
Petersen, Jens Højslev; Trier, Xenia Thorsager; Fabech, B.
possibilities of implementing migration-modelling software as a tool in official food control and possibly in improving the own-check programmes of Danish plastic-converting plants. Food inspectors from nine regional food control centres initially attended a training course in the use of a commercial modelling...... reason was a lack of information from those in the raw material supply chain who considered their products protected by commercial confidentiality. In general, the food inspectors were in favour of using migration modelling for future control visits.......A few years ago, it became accepted that the plastics industry could use migration modelling for compliance testing. When a calculation confirms that the migration of a compound from a plastic material or article is below the specific migration limit, this is considered sufficient documentation...
Lissovoi, Andrei; Witt, Carsten
similar to (Formula presented.) islands optimizing the so-called Maze fitness function (KÃ¶tzing and Molter in Proceedings of parallel problem solving from nature (PPSN XII), Springer, Berlin, pp 113â€“122, 2012). Previous work has shown that when a complete migration topology is used, migration must...... of logarithmic diameter as the migration topology allows the model to track the oscillating optimum through nMaze-like phases with high probability, while using any graph of diameter less than (Formula presented.) for some sufficiently small constant (Formula presented.) results in the island model losing track......Island models denote a distributed system of evolutionary algorithms which operate independently, but occasionally share their solutions with each other along the so-called migration topology. We investigate the impact of the migration topology by introducing a simplified island model with behavior...
Kanda, H.; Hashimoto, N.; Takahashi, H.
The phenomenon of grain boundary migration due to boundary diffusion via vacancies is a well-known process for recrystallization and grain growth during annealing. This phenomenon is known as diffusion-induced grain boundary migration (DIGM) and has been recognized in various binary systems. On the other hand, grain boundary migration often occurs under irradiation. Furthermore, such radiation-induced grain boundary migration (RIGM) gives rise to solute segregation. In order to investigate the RIGM mechanism and the interaction between solutes and point defects during the migration, stainless steel and Ni-Si model alloys were electron-irradiated using a HVEM. RIGM was often observed in stainless steels during irradiation. The migration rate of boundary varied, and three stages of the migration were recognized. At lower temperatures, incubation periods up to the occurrence of the boundary migration were observed prior to first stage. These behaviors were recognized particularly for lower solute containing alloys. From the relation between the migration rates at stage I and inverse temperatures, activation energies for the boundary migration were estimated. In comparison to the activation energy without irradiation, these values were very low. This suggests that the RIGM is caused by the flow of mixed-dumbbells toward the grain boundary. The interaction between solute and point defects and the effective defect concentration generating segregation will be discussed.
Rahbek, Carsten; Gotelli, Nicholas J; Colwell, Robert K
the extraordinary diversity of avian species in the montane tropics, the most species-rich region on Earth. Our findings imply that correlative climatic models substantially underestimate the importance of historical factors and small-scale niche-driven assembly processes in shaping contemporary species-richness......The causes of global variation in species richness have been debated for nearly two centuries with no clear resolution in sight. Competing hypotheses have typically been evaluated with correlative models that do not explicitly incorporate the mechanisms responsible for biotic diversity gradients....... Here, we employ a fundamentally different approach that uses spatially explicit Monte Carlo models of the placement of cohesive geographical ranges in an environmentally heterogeneous landscape. These models predict species richness of endemic South American birds (2248 species) measured...
Doyle, P.A.T.; Gorman, M.L.; Patterson, I.J.; Howe, S.
This paper reports that the creation of a club for the purpose of encouraging oil and gas workers to watch birds may not at first seem a viable proposition. To the layperson, birds offshore conjures up an image of hundreds of seagulls following fishing boats, and very little else. Also, the act of birdwatching is not seen as a typical offshore worker's activity. Anyone who has worked on an installation offshore and who has any interest in wildlife will be aware of the occasional presence of land-birds. Two decades ago, prompted by some keen offshore workers, a single oil company set up a monitoring program, which quickly became popular with a number of its employees. Birds seem offshore were recorded on data forms and collected together. At this stage the club was purely another recreation facility; however, when the data were collated it was soon realized that installations offshore were being used as staging posts by birds on migration, and that the information being collected would be of great interest in the study of bird movements. All over Britain, at strategic points on the coastline, there are bird observatories which record the arrival and departure of migrating birds. The presence of several hundred solid structures up and down the North Sea, which are used by birds en route, represents a huge, unique bird observatory, capable of uncovering facts about bird migration which have long eluded land-based scientists. Eleven years ago, the North Sea Bird Club began, composed of eight member companies, a recorder from Aberdeen University and a representative from the Nature Conservancy Council. The club received data from 41 installations, and the recorder collated these on Aberdeen University's computer and produced an annual report of sightings
Hein, Andrew M; Hou, Chen; Gillooly, James F
Animal migration is one of the great wonders of nature, but the factors that determine how far migrants travel remain poorly understood. We present a new quantitative model of animal migration and use it to describe the maximum migration distance of walking, swimming and flying migrants. The model combines biomechanics and metabolic scaling to show how maximum migration distance is constrained by body size for each mode of travel. The model also indicates that the number of body lengths travelled by walking and swimming migrants should be approximately invariant of body size. Data from over 200 species of migratory birds, mammals, fish, and invertebrates support the central conclusion of the model - that body size drives variation in maximum migration distance among species through its effects on metabolism and the cost of locomotion. The model provides a new tool to enhance general understanding of the ecology and evolution of migration. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS.
The process of rural-urban migration in Bangladesh is analyzed using a dual economy model. The focus is on the period 1976-1985. The main purpose of the paper is to examine alternative policies designed to reduce the level of such migration without adversely affecting the country's economy.
Helmroth, E.; Rijk, R.; Dekker, M.; Jongen, W.
Migration of low-molecular weight compounds is one of the most important problems of packaging plastics and other plastics intended to come into contact with food products. Since migration experiments are time consuming and expensive, predictive modelling has been introduced as a promising
Voogt, J.A.; Hirte, A.; Meinders, M.B.J.
BACKGROUND: Water migration in cellular solid foods during storage causes loss of crispness. To improve crispness retention, physical understanding of this process is needed. Mathematical models are suitable tools to gain this physical knowledge. RESULTS: Water migration in cellular solid foods
Keywords:certified reference materials; diffusion; food contact materials; food packaging; laurolactam; migration modelling; nylon; specific migration This thesis compiles several research topics
James F. Selgrade; James H. Roberds
The migration into a natural population of a controlled population, e.g., a transgenic population, is studied using a one island selection-migration model. A 2-dimensional system of nonlinear difference equations describes changes in allele frequency and population size between generations. Biologically reasonable conditions are obtained which guarantee the existence...
Voogt, J.A.; Hirte, A.; Meinders, M.B.J.
Background: Water migration in cellular solid foods during storage causes loss of crispness. To improve crispness retention, physical understanding of this process is needed. Mathematical models are suitable tools to gain this physical knowledge. Results: Water migration in cellular solid foods
Lundsgaard, Rasmus; Kontogeorgis, Georgios; Kristiansen, Jørgen K.
soybean oil (ESBO) with regard to their migration from three different types of poly(vinyl chloride) into isooctane at 20, 40, and 60 degrees C. Diffusion coefficients derived from the experimental migration data were evaluated against diffusion coefficients estimated from a model based solely...
Full Text Available Internal migration, although less investigated than international migration, is a key mechanism for adjustment to regional economic shocks, especially when other tools prove useless. But this process has very complex factors of determination which can be economic, social, demographic, environmental, etc. Based on previous international studies, in the case of Romania the robust variables proved to be the population size, the per capita gross domestic product, the road density, an amenity index and the crime rate from a static perspective, and the previous migration, the population size and the amenity index from a dynamic perspective. The techniques I have employed in making this study are the Least Square Dummy Variables (LSDV, or the fixed effects method and the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM, or the dynamic method both applied to panel data.
Binomial N-mixture models have proven very useful in ecology, conservation, and monitoring: they allow estimation and modeling of abundance separately from detection probability using simple counts. Recently, doubts about parameter identifiability have been voiced. I conducted a large-scale screening test with 137 bird data sets from 2,037 sites. I found virtually no identifiability problems for Poisson and zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) binomial N-mixture models, but negative-binomial (NB) models had problems in 25% of all data sets. The corresponding multinomial N-mixture models had no problems. Parameter estimates under Poisson and ZIP binomial and multinomial N-mixture models were extremely similar. Identifiability problems became a little more frequent with smaller sample sizes (267 and 50 sites), but were unaffected by whether the models did or did not include covariates. Hence, binomial N-mixture model parameters with Poisson and ZIP mixtures typically appeared identifiable. In contrast, NB mixtures were often unidentifiable, which is worrying since these were often selected by Akaike's information criterion. Identifiability of binomial N-mixture models should always be checked. If problems are found, simpler models, integrated models that combine different observation models or the use of external information via informative priors or penalized likelihoods, may help. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.
Sabatier, R; Teillard, F; Rossing, W A H; Doyen, L; Tichit, M
In European grassland landscapes, grazing and mowing play a key role for the maintenance of high-quality habitats that host important bird populations. As grasslands are also key resources for cattle feeding, there is a need to develop management strategies that achieve the double objective of production and biodiversity conservation. The objective of this study was to use a modelling approach to generate recognisable patterns of bird dynamics in farms composed of different land use proportions, and to compare their production and ecological dimensions. We developed a dynamic model, which linked grassland management to bird population dynamics at the field and farm levels. The model was parameterised for two types of suckling farms corresponding to contrasting levels of grassland intensification and for two bird species of high conservation value. A viability algorithm was used to define and assess viable management strategies for production and ecological performance so as to draw the shape of the relationship between both types of performances for the two types of farms. Our results indicated that, at the farm level, there was a farming system effect with a negative and non-linear relationship linking performance. Improving bird population maintenance was less costly in extensive farms compared with intensive farms. At the field level, the model predicted the timing and intensity of land use, maximising either production or ecological performance. The results suggested that multi-objective grassland management would benefit from public policies that consider levels of organisation higher than the field level, such as the farm or the landscape.
Lyra, Wladimir; Mac Low, Mordecai-Mark; Paardekooper, Sijme-Jan
Outward migration of low-mass planets has recently been shown to be a possibility in non-barotropic disks. We examine the consequences of this result in evolutionary models of protoplanetary disks. Planet migration occurs toward equilibrium radii with zero torque. These radii themselves migrate inwards because of viscous accretion and photoevaporation. We show that as the surface density and temperature fall the planet orbital migration and disk depletion timescales eventually become comparable, with the precise timing depending on the mass of the planet. When this occurs, the planet decouples from the equilibrium radius. At this time, however, the gas surface density is already too low to drive substantial further migration. A higher mass planet, of 10 M + , can open a gap during the late evolution of the disk, and stops migrating. Low-mass planets, with 1 or 0.1 M + , released beyond 1 AU in our models avoid migrating into the star. Our results provide support for the reduced migration rates adopted in recent planet population synthesis models.
DeCarvalho, Nelson V.; Chen, B. Y.; Pinho, Silvestre T.; Baiz, P. M.; Ratcliffe, James G.; Tay, T. E.
A novel approach is proposed for high-fidelity modeling of progressive damage and failure in composite materials that combines the Floating Node Method (FNM) and the Virtual Crack Closure Technique (VCCT) to represent multiple interacting failure mechanisms in a mesh-independent fashion. In this study, the approach is applied to the modeling of delamination migration in cross-ply tape laminates. Delamination, matrix cracking, and migration are all modeled using fracture mechanics based failure and migration criteria. The methodology proposed shows very good qualitative and quantitative agreement with experiments.
Hojbota, C I; Toşa, V; Mercea, P V
We present a numerical model based on finite differences to solve the problem of chemical impurity migration within a multilayer spherical system. Migration here means diffusion of chemical species in conditions of concentration partitioning at layer interfaces due to different solubilities of the migrant in different layers. We detail here the numerical model and discuss the results of its implementation. To validate the method we compare it with cases where an analytic solution exists. We also present an application of our model to a practical problem in which we compute the migration of caprolactam from the packaging multilayer foil into the food
Erin E Poor
Full Text Available Terrestrial long-distance migrations are declining globally: in North America, nearly 75% have been lost. Yet there has been limited research comparing habitat suitability and connectivity models to identify migration corridors across increasingly fragmented landscapes. Here we use pronghorn (Antilocapra americana migrations in prairie habitat to compare two types of models that identify habitat suitability: maximum entropy (Maxent and expert-based (Analytic Hierarchy Process. We used distance to wells, distance to water, NDVI, land cover, distance to roads, terrain shape and fence presence to parameterize the models. We then used the output of these models as cost surfaces to compare two common connectivity models, least-cost modeling (LCM and circuit theory. Using pronghorn movement data from spring and fall migrations, we identified potential migration corridors by combining each habitat suitability model with each connectivity model. The best performing model combination was Maxent with LCM corridors across both seasons. Maxent out-performed expert-based habitat suitability models for both spring and fall migrations. However, expert-based corridors can perform relatively well and are a cost-effective alternative if species location data are unavailable. Corridors created using LCM out-performed circuit theory, as measured by the number of pronghorn GPS locations present within the corridors. We suggest the use of a tiered approach using different corridor widths for prioritizing conservation and mitigation actions, such as fence removal or conservation easements.
Poor, Erin E; Loucks, Colby; Jakes, Andrew; Urban, Dean L
Terrestrial long-distance migrations are declining globally: in North America, nearly 75% have been lost. Yet there has been limited research comparing habitat suitability and connectivity models to identify migration corridors across increasingly fragmented landscapes. Here we use pronghorn (Antilocapra americana) migrations in prairie habitat to compare two types of models that identify habitat suitability: maximum entropy (Maxent) and expert-based (Analytic Hierarchy Process). We used distance to wells, distance to water, NDVI, land cover, distance to roads, terrain shape and fence presence to parameterize the models. We then used the output of these models as cost surfaces to compare two common connectivity models, least-cost modeling (LCM) and circuit theory. Using pronghorn movement data from spring and fall migrations, we identified potential migration corridors by combining each habitat suitability model with each connectivity model. The best performing model combination was Maxent with LCM corridors across both seasons. Maxent out-performed expert-based habitat suitability models for both spring and fall migrations. However, expert-based corridors can perform relatively well and are a cost-effective alternative if species location data are unavailable. Corridors created using LCM out-performed circuit theory, as measured by the number of pronghorn GPS locations present within the corridors. We suggest the use of a tiered approach using different corridor widths for prioritizing conservation and mitigation actions, such as fence removal or conservation easements.
Li Chunguang; Tai Kaixuan
The radioactive contamination of groundwater from in situ leaching (ISL) of uranium mining is a widespread environmental problem. This paper analyzed the monitor results of groundwater contaminations for a in situ leaching uranium mine. A dynamic model of contaminants transport in groundwater in ISL well field was established. The processes and mechanisms of contaminant transport in groundwater were simulated numerically for a ISL well field. A small quantity of U and SO 4 2- migrate to outside of well field during ISL production stage. But the migration velocity and distance of contaminations is small, and the concentration is low. Contaminants migrate as anomalistic tooth-shape. The migration trend of U and SO 4 2- is consistent. Numerical modeling can provide an effective approach to analyse the transport mechanism, and forecast and control the migration of contaminants in groundwater in ISL well field. (authors)
Full Text Available Nearly one in five bird species has separate breeding and overwintering distributions, and the regular migrations of these species cause a substantial seasonal redistribution of avian diversity across the world. However, despite its ecological importance, bird migration has been largely ignored in studies of global avian biodiversity, with few studies having addressed it from a macroecological perspective. Here, we analyse a dataset on the global distribution of the world's birds in order to examine global spatial patterns in the diversity of migratory species, including: the seasonal variation in overall species diversity due to migration; the contribution of migratory birds to local bird diversity; and the distribution of narrow-range and threatened migratory birds. Our analyses reveal a striking asymmetry between the Northern and Southern hemispheres, evident in all of the patterns investigated. The highest migratory bird diversity was found in the Northern Hemisphere, with high inter-continental turnover in species composition between breeding and non-breeding seasons, and extensive regions (at high latitudes where migratory birds constitute the majority of the local avifauna. Threatened migratory birds are concentrated mainly in Central and Southern Asia, whereas narrow-range migratory species are mainly found in Central America, the Himalayas and Patagonia. Overall, global patterns in the diversity of migratory birds indicate that bird migration is mainly a Northern Hemisphere phenomenon. The asymmetry between the Northern and Southern hemispheres could not have easily been predicted from the combined results of regional scale studies, highlighting the importance of a global perspective.
Shamoun-Baranes, J.; van Loon, E.E.; Bouten, W.
White storks (Ciconia ciconia) are soaring migrants whose western Palearctic populations use several migration routes, concentrating mainly over Gibraltar and Israel to cross between their Palearctic breeding grounds and wintering grounds in Africa. A wealth of data has been collected during the
Hoch, A.R.; Cliffe, K.A.; Swift, B.T.; Rodwell, W.R.
This report describes the third phase of a programme of work to develop a computational model of gas migration through highly compacted water-saturated bentonite. One difficulty with this endeavour is the definitive determination of the mechanism of the gas migration from the available experimental data. The report contains a brief review of the experimental data and their interpretation. The model development work reported involves the investigation of two ways of enhancing a model proposed in the previous phase of the programme. This model was based on the concept that gas migration pathways were created by consolidating the clay fabric by application of gas pressure to create porosity through which the gas could flow. The two developments of this model that are separately explored in this work are: (a) The incorporation of a proper treatment of the stress-strain behaviour of the clay in (b) response to gas migration. The previous model had only considered stress effects through simple volume changes to the clay fabric. The inclusion of a dual-porosity feature into the model in an attempt to address the role that the clay fabric might play in gas migration through the clay, in particular the role that pre-existing interstack voids might have in gas migration. The consideration of hysteresis effects was also included in this study. As in previous GAMBIT Club work, the models are tested against the results of laboratory experiments. (orig.)
Maloszewski, P.; Klotz, D.
A transport and interaction model is applied to 152 Eu migration experiments which takes account simultaneously of fast (so-called local equilibrium) and slow (kinetic) exchange processes of the migrant between the aqueous and the solid phase [de
Fraser, J.L.; Jarvis, R.G.
The mathematical model is one-dimensional, to describe migration of radionuclides, by diffusion and advection, through several consecutive layers that can represent vault materials and surrounding ground. The solutions are evaluated by a computer code HADES
Marcus, Andrew K.; Torres, Cesar I.; Rittmann, Bruce E.
Microbial electrochemical cells depend on the reaction by anode-respiring bacteria (ARB). The ARB reaction generates multiple e - and H + , which take diverging paths, creating a charge imbalance. An electric field must migrate ions to restore electrical neutrality. Here, the model proton condition in bioflim (PCBIOFILM) expands for evaluating the impact of migration on the biofilm anode: the expansion makes the proton condition (PC) work in tandem with the electrical-neutrality condition, which is a novel methodological advancement. The analysis with PCBIOFILM examines relevant scenarios of phosphate- and carbonate-buffered biofilm anodes using established parameters. The analysis demonstrates how: (1) the proton condition (PC) maintains electrical neutrality by achieving charge balance; (2) migration influences the biofilm anode more than non-ARB biofilms; (3) migration increases the overall current density, but by less than 15 percent; and (4) PCBIOFILM without migration accurately captures large-scale trends in biofilm anodes.
Full Text Available The expansion of renewable energies, such as wind power, is a promising way of mitigating climate change. Because of the risk of collision with rotor blades, wind turbines have negative effects on local bird populations, particularly on raptors such as the Red Kite (Milvus milvus. Appropriate assessment tools for these effects have been lacking. To close this gap, we have developed an agent-based, spatially explicit model that simulates the foraging behavior of the Red Kite around its aerie in a landscape consisting of different land-use types. We determined the collision risk of the Red Kite with the turbine as a function of the distance between the wind turbine and the aerie and other parameters. The impact function comprises the synergistic effects of species-specific foraging behavior and landscape structure. The collision risk declines exponentially with increasing distance. The strength of this decline depends on the raptor's foraging behavior, its ability to avoid wind turbines, and the mean wind speed in the region. The collision risks, which are estimated by the simulation model, are in the range of values observed in the field. The derived impact function shows that the collision risk can be described as an aggregated function of distance between the wind turbine and the raptor's aerie. This allows an easy and rapid assessment of the ecological impacts of (existing or planned wind turbines in relation to their spatial location. Furthermore, it implies that minimum buffer zones for different landscapes can be determined in a defensible way. This modeling approach can be extended to other bird species with central-place foraging behavior. It provides a helpful tool for landscape planning aimed at minimizing the impacts of wind power on biodiversity.
Kovalenko, V.I.; Khil'ko, O.S.; Kundas, S.P.
The work is indicated to the use of artificial neural network (ANN) models in program complex SPS for radioactive substances' migration forecasting in soil. For the problem solution two ANN models are used. One of them forecasts radioactive substances' migration, another carries out forecasting of physical and chemical soil properties. Program complex SPS allows to achieve a low error of forecasting (no more than 5 %) and high training speed. (authors)
Tarby, Sara; Cermak, Daniel
Sara Tarby, Daniel Cermak-Sassenrath. Screamy Bird. Digital game. Kulturnatten 2016, Danish Science Ministry, Copenhagen, DK, Oct 14, 2016.......Sara Tarby, Daniel Cermak-Sassenrath. Screamy Bird. Digital game. Kulturnatten 2016, Danish Science Ministry, Copenhagen, DK, Oct 14, 2016....
White, Joseph D.; Gutzwiller, Kevin J.; Barrow, Wylie C.; Johnson-Randall, Lori; Zygo, Lisa; Swint, Pamela
Avian conservation efforts must account for changes in vegetation composition and structure associated with climate change. We modeled vegetation change and the probability of occurrence of birds to project changes in winter bird distributions associated with climate change and fire management in the northern Chihuahuan Desert (southwestern U.S.A.). We simulated vegetation change in a process-based model (Landscape and Fire Simulator) in which anticipated climate change was associated with doubling of current atmospheric carbon dioxide over the next 50 years. We estimated the relative probability of bird occurrence on the basis of statistical models derived from field observations of birds and data on vegetation type, topography, and roads. We selected 3 focal species, Scaled Quail (Callipepla squamata), Loggerhead Shrike (Lanius ludovicianus), and Rock Wren (Salpinctes obsoletus), that had a range of probabilities of occurrence for our study area. Our simulations projected increases in relative probability of bird occurrence in shrubland and decreases in grassland and Yucca spp. and ocotillo (Fouquieria splendens) vegetation. Generally, the relative probability of occurrence of all 3 species was highest in shrubland because leaf-area index values were lower in shrubland. This high probability of occurrence likely is related to the species' use of open vegetation for foraging. Fire suppression had little effect on projected vegetation composition because as climate changed there was less fuel and burned area. Our results show that if future water limits on plant type are considered, models that incorporate spatial data may suggest how and where different species of birds may respond to vegetation changes.
Tanaka, Tadao; Mukai, Masayuki
The migration phenomenon of radionuclide through geological media such as soils and porous rocks, which is important in underground disposal of radioactive wastes, can be described by the advection-dispersion of groundwater and the interactions of radionuclide with geological media. On the other hand, to understand the migration phenomenon, actual migration data are experimentally acquired by a batch test, a column test and field trial. In the present study, experimental models about the interactions of radionuclide between the solid phase and the liquid phase were discussed systematically to interpret the migration data acquired by the various techniques and conditions. Equilibrium, reversibility, linearity, mechanism and chemistry in the interactions were considered in discussion of the experimental models. A calculation program, which can analyze migration data obtained under various conditions by applying the selected 9 types of experimental models, was maintained. The calculation program makes it be able to predict the migration behavior of radionuclide under various conditions and to decide the important parameter by a fitting analysis of the migration data. (author)
Rodríguez-Díaz, L.; Gómez-Gesteira, M.
European eel can be found at the Bay of Biscay after a long migration across the Atlantic. The duration of migration, which takes place at larval stage, is of primary importance to understand eel ecology and, hence, its survival. This duration is still a controversial matter since it can range from 7 months to > 4 years depending on the method to estimate duration. The minimum migration duration estimated from our lagrangian model is similar to the duration obtained from the microstructure of eel otoliths, which is typically on the order of 7-9 months. The lagrangian model showed to be sensitive to different conditions like spatial and time resolution, release depth, release area and initial distribution. In general, migration showed to be faster when decreasing the depth and increasing the resolution of the model. In average, the fastest migration was obtained when only advective horizontal movement was considered. However, faster migration was even obtained in some cases when locally oriented random migration was taken into account.
Diehl, Robert Howard
The challenge for migratory bird conservation is habitat preservation that sustains breeding, migration, and non-breeding biological processes. In choosing an appropriately scaled conservation arena for habitat preservation, a conservative and thorough examination of stopover habitat use patterns by migrants works back from the larger scales at which such relationships may occur. Because the use of stopover habitats by migrating birds occurs at spatial scales larger than traditional field techniques can easily accommodate, I quantify these relationship using the United States system of weather surveillance radars (popularly known as NEXRAD). To provide perspective on use of this system for biologists, I first describe the technical challenges as well as some of the biological potential of these radars for ornithological research. Using data from these radars, I then examined the influence of Lake Michigan and the distribution of woodland habitat on migrant concentrations in northeastern Illinois habitats during stopover. Lake Michigan exerted less influence on migrant abundance and density than the distribution and availability of habitat for stopover. There was evidence of post-migratory movement resulting in habitats within suburban landscapes experiencing higher migrant abundance but lower migrant density than habitats within nearby urban and agricultural landscapes. Finally, in the context of hierarchy theory, I examined the influence of landscape ecological and behavioral processes on bird density during migratory stopover. Migrant abundance did not vary across landscapes that differed considerably in the amount of habitat available for stopover. As a result, smaller, more isolated patches held higher densities of birds. Spatial models of migrant habitat selection based on migrant proximity to a patch explained nearly as much variance in the number of migrants occupying patches (R2 = 0.88) as selection models based on migrant interception of patches during
stop migration. Despite Hadejia-Nguru Wetlands (Ramsar site) being an important wintering ground for migratory birds, little is known about the diversity while density is completely lacking. This study assessed the status of migratory birds in the ...
Clement, Matthew J.; Hines, James E.; Nichols, James D.; Pardieck, Keith L.; Ziolkowski, David J.
There is intense interest in basic and applied ecology about the effect of global change on current and future species distributions. Projections based on widely used static modeling methods implicitly assume that species are in equilibrium with the environment and that detection during surveys is perfect. We used multiseason correlated detection occupancy models, which avoid these assumptions, to relate climate data to distributional shifts of Louisiana Waterthrush in the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) data. We summarized these shifts with indices of range size and position and compared them to the same indices obtained using more basic modeling approaches. Detection rates during point counts in BBS surveys were low, and models that ignored imperfect detection severely underestimated the proportion of area occupied and slightly overestimated mean latitude. Static models indicated Louisiana Waterthrush distribution was most closely associated with moderate temperatures, while dynamic occupancy models indicated that initial occupancy was associated with diurnal temperature ranges and colonization of sites was associated with moderate precipitation. Overall, the proportion of area occupied and mean latitude changed little during the 1997–2013 study period. Near-term forecasts of species distribution generated by dynamic models were more similar to subsequently observed distributions than forecasts from static models. Occupancy models incorporating a finite mixture model on detection – a new extension to correlated detection occupancy models – were better supported and may reduce bias associated with detection heterogeneity. We argue that replacing phenomenological static models with more mechanistic dynamic models can improve projections of future species distributions. In turn, better projections can improve biodiversity forecasts, management decisions, and understanding of global change biology.
Warren W. Burggren
Full Text Available ABSTRACT The avian embryo is a time-honored animal model for understanding vertebrate development. A key area of extensive study using bird embryos centers on developmental phenotypic plasticity of the cardio-respiratory system and how its normal development can be affected by abiotic factors such as temperature and oxygen availability. Through the investigation of the plasticity of development, we gain a better understanding of both the regulation of the developmental process and the embryo's capacity for self-repair. Additionally, experiments with abiotic and biotic stressors during development have helped delineate not just critical windows for avian cardio-respiratory development, but the general characteristics (e.g., timing and dose-dependence of critical windows in all developing vertebrates. Avian embryos are useful in exploring fetal programming, in which early developmental experiences have implications (usually negative later in life. The ability to experimentally manipulate the avian embryo without the interference of maternal behavior or physiology makes it particularly useful in future studies of fetal programming. The bird embryo is also a key participant in studies of transgenerational epigenetics, whether by egg provisioning or effects on the germline that are transmitted to the F1 generation (or beyond. Finally, the avian embryo is heavily exploited in toxicology, in which both toxicological testing of potential consumer products as well as the consequences of exposure to anthropogenic pollutants are routinely carried out in the avian embryo. The avian embryo thus proves useful on numerous experimental fronts as an animal model that is concurrently both of adequate complexity and sufficient simplicity for probing vertebrate cardio-respiratory development.
This article discussed the bird deterrent practices that several Canadian operators have in place at their tailings ponds. Regulations require that oilsands operators prevent birds from coming into contact with toxic tailings. Canadian Natural Resources Limited has a 2-man team constantly monitoring bird landings at its Horizon tailings pond. The team fires flares at birds or harasses them in boats to stop them from landing on the pond. Remote sensing technologies are used, including long-range acoustic devices, propane cannons, human effigies, balloons, and pyrotechnics. The vegetation around the pond is controlled to make the area inhospitable to birds, and highly desirable bird habitat was created as an alternative bird landing site. Following a high-mortality incident in 2008, Syncrude now deploys 190 shore-based sound canons at all tailings settling basins and open-water areas and uses scarecrows and effigies fitted with reflectors to deter waterfowl from landing. A radar-based migration monitoring system helps the company to optimize its deterrent system. At its Muskeg River Mine, Shell Canada Limited uses an on-demand radar-activated bird-deterrent program, which is what major airports use to deter birds. In the presence of a bird, the system launches a radio signal that sets off strobe lights, propane cannons, scarecrows, and mechanical models of falcons. 1 fig.
Camp, Richard J.; Pratt, Thane K.; Gorresen, P. Marcos; Woodworth, Bethany L.; Jeffrey, John J.
Freed and Cann (2013) criticized our use of linear models to assess trends in the status of Hawaiian forest birds through time (Camp et al. 2009a, 2009b, 2010) by questioning our sampling scheme, whether we met model assumptions, and whether we ignored short-term changes in the population time series. In the present paper, we address these concerns and reiterate that our results do not support the position of Freed and Cann (2013) that the forest birds in the Hakalau Forest National Wildlife Refuge (NWR) are declining, or that the federally listed endangered birds are showing signs of imminent collapse. On the contrary, our data indicate that the 21-year long-term trends for native birds in Hakalau Forest NWR are stable to increasing, especially in areas that have received active management.
Full Text Available Aimed at resolving the issues of the imbalance of resources and workloads at data centers and the overhead together with the high cost of virtual machine (VM migrations, this paper proposes a new VM migration strategy which is based on the cloud model time series workload prediction algorithm. By setting the upper and lower workload bounds for host machines, forecasting the tendency of their subsequent workloads by creating a workload time series using the cloud model, and stipulating a general VM migration criterion workload-aware migration (WAM, the proposed strategy selects a source host machine, a destination host machine, and a VM on the source host machine carrying out the task of the VM migration. Experimental results and analyses show, through comparison with other peer research works, that the proposed method can effectively avoid VM migrations caused by momentary peak workload values, significantly lower the number of VM migrations, and dynamically reach and maintain a resource and workload balance for virtual machines promoting an improved utilization of resources in the entire data center.
John M. Tirpak; D. Todd Jones-Farrand; Frank R., III Thompson; Daniel J. Twedt; William B., III Uihlein
Habitat Suitability Index (HSI) models were developed to assess habitat quality for 40 priority bird species in the Central Hardwoods and West Gulf Coastal Plain/Ouachitas Bird Conservation Regions. The models incorporated both site and landscape environmental variables from one of six nationally consistent datasets. Potential habitat was first defined from unique...
Lázár, A. N.; Adams, H.; de Campos, R. S.; Mortreux, C. C.; Clarke, D.; Nicholls, R. J.; Amisigo, B. A.
Deltas are hotspots of high population density, fertile lands and dramatic environmental and anthropogenic pressures and changes. Amongst other environmental factors, sea level rise, soil salinization, water shortages and erosion threaten people's livelihoods and wellbeing. As a result, there is a growing concern that significant environmental change induced migration might occur from these areas. Migration, however, is already happening for economic, education and other reasons (e.g. livelihood change, marriage, planned relocation, etc.). Migration hence has multiple, interlinked drivers and depending on the perspective, can be considered as a positive or negative phenomenon. The DECCMA project (Deltas, Vulnerability & Climate Change: Migration & Adaptation) studies migration as part of a suite of adaptation options available to the coastal populations in the Ganges delta in Bangladesh, the Mahanadi delta in India and the Volta delta in Ghana. It aims to develop a holistic framework of analysis that assesses the impact of climate and environmental change on the migration patterns of these areas. This assessment framework will couple environmental, socio-economics and governance dimensions in an attempt to synthesise drivers and barriers and allow testing of plausible future scenarios. One of the integrative methods of DECCMA is a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) model describing the decision-making of a coastal household. BBN models are built on qualitative and quantitative observations/expert knowledge and describe the probability of different events/responses etc. BBN models are especially useful to capture uncertainties of large systems and engaging with stakeholders. The DECCMA BBN model is based on household survey results from delta migrant sending areas. This presentation will describe model elements (livelihood sensitivity to climate change, local and national adaptation options, household characteristics/attitude, social networks, household decision) and
Luke L. Powell; Jared D. Wolfe; Erik I. Johnson; James E. Hines; James D. Nichols; Philip C Stouffer
Given rates of deforestation, disturbance, and secondary forest accumulation in tropical rainforests, there is a great need to quantify habitat use and movement among different habitats. This need is particularly pronounced for animals most sensitive to disturbance, such as insectivorous understory birds. Here we use multistate captureârecapture models with...
Randall A., Jr. Schultz; Thomas C., Jr. Edwards; Gretchen G. Moisen; Tracey S. Frescino
The ability of USDA Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) generated spatial products to increase the predictive accuracy of spatially explicit, macroscale habitat models was examined for nest-site selection by cavity-nesting birds in Fishlake National Forest, Utah. One FIA-derived variable (percent basal area of aspen trees) was significant in the habitat...
Full Text Available In this paper we study a corporate bond-pricing model with credit rating migration and astochastic interest rate. The volatility of bond price in the model strongly depends on potential creditrating migration and stochastic change of the interest rate. This new model improves the previousexisting models in which the interest rate is considered to be a constant. The existence, uniquenessand regularity of the solution for the model are established. Moreover, some properties includingthe smoothness of the free boundary are obtained. Furthermore, some numerical computations arepresented to illustrate the theoretical results.
Vicki Saab; Robin E. Russell; Jay Rotella; Jonathan G. Dudley
Salvage logging practices in recently burned forests often have direct effects on species associated with dead trees, particularly cavity-nesting birds. As such, evaluation of postfire management practices on nest survival rates of cavity nesters is necessary for determining conservation strategies. We monitored 1,797 nests of 6 cavity-nesting bird species: Lewis'...
Quinquis, M. E. T.; Buiter, S. J. H.
Subduction of oceanic lithosphere brings water into Earth's upper mantle. Previous numerical studies have shown how slab dehydration and mantle hydration can impact the dynamics of a subduction system by allowing a more vigorous mantle flow and promoting localisation of deformation in lithosphere and mantle. The depths at which dehydration reactions occur in the hydrated portions of the slab are well constrained in these models by thermodynamic calculations. However, the mechanism by which free water migrates in the mantle is incompletely known. Therefore, models use different numerical schemes to model the migration of free water. We aim to show the influence of the numerical scheme of free water migration on the dynamics of the upper mantle and more specifically the mantle wedge. We investigate the following three migration schemes with a finite-element model: (1) element-wise vertical migration of free water, occurring independent of the material flow; (2) an imposed vertical free water velocity; and (3) a Darcy velocity, where the free water velocity is calculated as a function of the pressure gradient between water and the surrounding rocks. In addition, the material flow field also moves the free water in the imposed vertical velocity and Darcy schemes. We first test the influence of the water migration scheme using a simple Stokes flow model that simulates the sinking of a cold hydrated cylinder into a hot dry mantle. We find that the free water migration scheme has only a limited impact on the water distribution after 1 Myr in these models. We next investigate slab dehydration and mantle hydration with a thermomechanical subduction model that includes brittle behaviour and viscous water-dependent creep flow laws. Our models show how the bound water distribution is not greatly influenced by the water migration scheme whereas the free water distribution is. We find that a water-dependent creep flow law results in a broader area of hydration in the mantle
This thesis addresses the efficiency improvement of seismic wave modeling and migration in anisotropic media. This improvement becomes crucial in practice as the process of imaging complex geological structures of the Earth\\'s subsurface requires modeling and migration as building blocks. The challenge comes from two aspects. First, the underlying governing equations for seismic wave propagation in anisotropic media are far more complicated than that in isotropic media which demand higher computational costs to solve. Second, the usage of whole prestack seismic data still remains a burden considering its storage volume and the existing wave equation solvers. In this thesis, I develop two approaches to tackle the challenges. In the first part, I adopt the concept of prestack exploding reflector model to handle the whole prestack data and bridge the data space directly to image space in a single kernel. I formulate the extrapolation operator in a two-way fashion to remove he restriction on directions that waves propagate. I also develop a generic method for phase velocity evaluation within anisotropic media used in this extrapolation kernel. The proposed method provides a tool for generating prestack images without wavefield cross correlations. In the second part of this thesis, I approximate the anisotropic models using effective isotropic models. The wave phenomena in these effective models match that in anisotropic models both kinematically and dynamically. I obtain the effective models through equating eikonal equations and transport equations of anisotropic and isotropic models, thereby in the high frequency asymptotic approximation sense. The wavefields extrapolation costs are thus reduced using isotropic wave equation solvers while the anisotropic effects are maintained through this approach. I benchmark the two proposed methods using synthetic datasets. Tests on anisotropic Marmousi model and anisotropic BP2007 model demonstrate the applicability of my
G. Gunnarsson (Gunnar); N. Latorre-Margalef (Neus); K.A. Hobson (Keith); S.L. van Wilgenburg (Steven); J. Elmberg (Johan); B. Olsen (Björn); R.A.M. Fouchier (Ron); J. Waldenström (Jonas)
textabstractThe mallard Anas platyrhynchos is a reservoir species for influenza A virus in the northern hemisphere, with particularly high prevalence rates prior to as well as during its prolonged autumn migration. It has been proposed that the virus is brought from the breeding grounds and
Manai, T. [Geostock S.A., Rueil-Malmaison (France)
The EVEGAS project aims at the verification and validation of numerical codes suitable for simulating gas flow phenomenon in low permeability porous media. Physical phenomena involved in gas generation and gas flow are numerous, often complex, and may not be very well described. The existing numerical codes cannot represent all the occurring possible phenomena, but allow a good trade-off betwen simplicity and representativity of such phenomena. Two phase flow (Gas and Water) appear to be the most consequential phenomena in gas migration and pressure sizing. The project is organised in three major steps: (1) a simple problem with analytical solutions. (2) A few problems based on laboratory or in-situ experiments. (3) A 3-D repository scenarios involving the following aspects: a repository design; a source of gas; rock characteristics; and fluid characteristics.
Full Text Available Hypersensitivity pneumonitis (HP is an immune mediated lung disease induced by the repeated inhalation of a wide variety of antigens. Bird-related hypersensitivity pneumonitis (BRHP is one of the most common forms of HP in human and results from the inhalation of avian antigens. The findings of a recent clinical analysis suggest that in addition to Th1 factors, the levels of interleukin(IL-17 and IL-17-associated transcripts are increased in the setting of HP, and that both IL-17A and neutrophils are crucial for the development of pulmonary inflammation in murine models of HP. Our objectives were to investigate the roles of IL-17A and neutrophils in granuloma-forming inflammation in an acute HP model. We developed a mouse model of acute BRHP using pigeon dropping extract. We evaluated the process of granuloma formation and the roles of both IL-17A and neutrophils in a model. We found that the neutralization of IL-17A by the antibody attenuated granuloma formation and the recruitment of neutrophils, and also decreased the expression level of chemokine(C-X-C motif ligand 5 (CXCL5 in the acute HP model. We confirmed that most of the neutrophils in the acute HP model exhibited immunoreactivity to the anti-IL-17 antibody. We have identified the central roles of both IL-17A and neutrophils in the pathogenesis of granuloma formation in acute HP. We have also assumed that neutrophils are an important source of IL-17A in an acute HP model, and that the IL-17A-CXCL5 pathway may be responsible for the recruitment of neutrophils.
Splinter, K.D.; Holman, R.A.; Plant, N.G.
A nonlinear model is developed to study the time-dependent relationship between the alongshore variability of a sandbar, a(t), and alongshore-averaged sandbar position, xc(t). Sediment transport equations are derived from energetics-based formulations. A link between this continuous physical representation and a parametric form describing the migration of sandbars of constant shape is established through a simple transformation of variables. The model is driven by offshore wave conditions. The parametric equations are dynamically coupled such that changes in one term (i.e., xc) drive changes in the other (i.e., a(t)). The model is tested on 566 days of data from Palm Beach, New South Wales, Australia. Using weighted nonlinear least squares to estimate best fit model coefficients, the model explained 49% and 41% of the variance in measured xc and a(t), respectively. Comparisons against a 1-D horizontal (1DH) version of the model showed significant improvements when the 2DH terms were included (1DH and 2DH Brier skill scores were -0.12 and 0.42, respectively). Onshore bar migration was not predicted in the 1DH model, while the 2DH model correctly predicted onshore migration in the presence of 2DH morphology and allowed the bar to remain closer to shore for a given amount of breaking, providing an important hysteresis to the system. The model is consistent with observations that active bar migration occurs under breaking waves with onshore migration occurring at timescales of days to weeks and increasing 2DH morphology, while offshore migration occurs rapidly under high waves and coincides with a reduction in 2DH morphology. Copyright ?? 2011 by the American Geophysical Union.
Kononovich, A.L.; Krishev, I.I.; Oskolkov, B.Ja.; Kulebakina, L.G.; Arhipov, N.P.
The new factors become significant for Chernobyl's contamination's evolution after 8-10 years. Those factors were hidden in the early 3-5 years. Our paper describes the mathematical model of the migration's process of the radionuclides in Chernobyl cooling pond and some results about the migration of the 137 Cs by groundwater. Our model for radionuclide's migration in the Chernobyl cooling pond differ from other mathematical models, that it takes into account the destruction of the fuel's particles during the time. It shows increased concentration of the 90 Sr in water and the monotonous decrease 137 Cs concentration in water. The results of the model's calculation of the annual concentration of the 137 Cs and 90 Sr in water coincide with measurements results in less than 20%. It is the only model of the Chernobyl cooling pond, which has so good coincidence during 10 years. Result of this work shows that the main process, which determines the time's dependence of the annual concentration of the radionuclides in Chernobyl cooling pond, is the destruction of the fuel's particles. In the second part of the paper there is result of the investigation 137 Cs migration by groundwater. The investigation was made with combination of the physical's modelling and mathematical's modelling methods. Truer is discussion about similarity of the physical-chemical simulation and real process. We had investigated the real Chernobyl's ground's contamination in the physical-chemical's similar model's system. It has observed the fraction of the 137 Cs in groundwater's contamination with very low sorption's coefficient, and thus the big migration's velocity (like 90 Sr). The part of the speed component is about 10 -4 . But the components of 137 Cs contamination, which has the big sorption's coefficient, converts slowly into the 'speed form' during the time. We had no see any publication about 'speed component' of 137 Cs contamination in Chernobyl's groundwater. All contemporary models of
Full Text Available Following laser vision correction, corneal keratocytes must repopulate areas of cell loss by migrating through the intact corneal stroma, and this can impact corneal shape and transparency. In this study, we evaluate 3D culture models for simulating this process in vitro. Buttons (8 mm diameter were first punched out of keratocyte populated compressed collagen matrices, exposed to a 3 mm diameter freeze injury, and cultured in serum-free media (basal media or media supplemented with 10% FBS, TGFb1 or PDGF BB. Following freeze injury, a region of cell death was observed in the center of the constructs. Although cells readily migrated on top of the matrices to cover the wound area, a limited amount of cell migration was observed within the constructs. We next developed a novel “sandwich” model, which better mimics the native lamellar architecture of the cornea. Using this model, significant migration was observed under all conditions studied. In both models, cells in TGFb and 10% FBS developed stress fibers; whereas cells in PDGF were more dendritic. PDGF stimulated the most inter-lamellar migration in the sandwich construct. Overall, these models provide insights into the complex interplay between growth factors, cell mechanical phenotypes and the structural properties of the ECM.
Qian Tianwei; Chen Fanrong
The influence of solution chemical action in groundwater on solute migration has attracted increasing public attention, especially adsorption action occurring on surface of solid phase and liquid phase, which has play a great role in solute migration. There are various interpretations on adsorption mechanism, in which surface complexion is one of successful hypothesis. This paper first establishes a geochemical model based on surface complexion and then coupled it with traditional advection-dispersion model to constitute a solute migration model, which can deal with surface complexion action. The simulated results fit very well with those obtained by the precursors, as compared with a published famous example, which indicates that the model set up by this paper is successful. (authors)
Loman, Zachary G.; DeLuca, William; Harrison, Daniel J.; Loftin, Cynthia S.; Rolek, Brian W.; Wood, Petra B.
ContextSpecies-specific models of landscape capability (LC) can inform landscape conservation design. Landscape capability is “the ability of the landscape to provide the environment […] and the local resources […] needed for survival and reproduction […] in sufficient quantity, quality and accessibility to meet the life history requirements of individuals and local populations.” Landscape capability incorporates species’ life histories, ecologies, and distributions to model habitat for current and future landscapes and climates as a proactive strategy for conservation planning.ObjectivesWe tested the ability of a set of LC models to explain variation in point occupancy and abundance for seven bird species representative of spruce-fir, mixed conifer-hardwood, and riparian and wooded wetland macrohabitats.MethodsWe compiled point count data sets used for biological inventory, species monitoring, and field studies across the northeastern United States to create an independent validation data set. Our validation explicitly accounted for underestimation in validation data using joint distance and time removal sampling.ResultsBlackpoll warbler (Setophaga striata), wood thrush (Hylocichla mustelina), and Louisiana (Parkesia motacilla) and northern waterthrush (P. noveboracensis) models were validated as predicting variation in abundance, although this varied from not biologically meaningful (1%) to strongly meaningful (59%). We verified all seven species models [including ovenbird (Seiurus aurocapilla), blackburnian (Setophaga fusca) and cerulean warbler (Setophaga cerulea)], as all were positively related to occupancy data.ConclusionsLC models represent a useful tool for conservation planning owing to their predictive ability over a regional extent. As improved remote-sensed data become available, LC layers are updated, which will improve predictions.
Mousavi, Seyed Jamaleddin; Doblaré, Manuel; Doweidar, Mohamed Hamdy
Cell migration is a vital process in many biological phenomena ranging from wound healing to tissue regeneration. Over the past few years, it has been proven that in addition to cell–cell and cell-substrate mechanical interactions (mechanotaxis), cells can be driven by thermal, chemical and/or electrical stimuli. A numerical model was recently presented by the authors to analyse single cell migration in a multi-signalling substrate. That work is here extended to include multi-cell migration due to cell–cell interaction in a multi-signalling substrate under different conditions. This model is based on balancing the forces that act on the cell population in the presence of different guiding cues. Several numerical experiments are presented to illustrate the effect of different stimuli on the trajectory and final location of the cell population within a 3D heterogeneous multi-signalling substrate. Our findings indicate that although multi-cell migration is relatively similar to single cell migration in some aspects, the associated behaviour is very different. For instance, cell–cell interaction may delay single cell migration towards effective cues while increasing the magnitude of the average net cell traction force as well as the local velocity. Besides, the random movement of a cell within a cell population is slightly greater than that of single cell migration. Moreover, higher electrical field strength causes the cell slug to flatten near the cathode. On the other hand, as with single cell migration, the existence of electrotaxis dominates mechanotaxis, moving the cells to the cathode or anode pole located at the free surface. The numerical results here obtained are qualitatively consistent with related experimental works. (paper)
McGuire, Liam P.; Jonasson, Kristin A.; Guglielmo, Christopher G.
Bats and birds must balance time and energy budgets during migration. Migrating bats face similar physiological challenges to birds, but nocturnality creates special challenges for bats, such as a conflict between travelling and refueling, which many birds avoid by feeding in daylight and flying at night. As endothermic animals, bats and birds alike must expend substantial amounts of energy to maintain high body temperatures. For migratory birds refueling at stopovers, remaining euthermic during inactive periods reduces the net refuelling rate, thereby prolonging stopover duration and delaying subsequent movement. We hypothesized that bats could mitigate similar ambient-temperature dependent costs by using a torpor-assisted migration strategy. We studied silver-haired bats Lasionycteris noctivagans during autumn migration using a combination of respirometry and temperature-sensitive radiotelemetry to estimate energy costs incurred under ambient temperature conditions, and the energy that bats saved by using torpor during daytime roosting periods. All bats, regardless of sex, age, or body condition used torpor at stopover and saved up to 91% of the energy they would have expended to remain euthermic. Furthermore, bats modulated use of torpor depending on ambient temperature. By adjusting the time spent torpid, bats achieved a rate of energy expenditure independent of the ambient temperature encountered at stopover. By lowering body temperature during inactive periods, fuel stores are spared, reducing the need for refuelling. Optimal migration models consider trade-offs between time and energy. Heterothermy provides a physiological strategy that allows bats to conserve energy without paying a time penalty as they migrate. Although uncommon, some avian lineages are known to use heterothermy, and current theoretical models of migration may not be appropriate for these groups. We propose that thermoregulatory strategies should be an important consideration of future
Quinquis, M. E. T.; Buiter, S. J. H.
Subduction of oceanic lithosphere brings water into the Earth's upper mantle. Previous numerical studies have shown how slab dehydration and mantle hydration can impact the dynamics of a subduction system by allowing a more vigorous mantle flow and promoting localisation of deformation in the lithosphere and mantle. The depths at which dehydration reactions occur in the hydrated portions of the slab are well constrained in these models by thermodynamic calculations. However, computational models use different numerical schemes to simulate the migration of free water. We aim to show the influence of the numerical scheme of free water migration on the dynamics of the upper mantle and more specifically the mantle wedge. We investigate the following three simple migration schemes with a finite-element model: (1) element-wise vertical migration of free water, occurring independent of the flow of the solid phase; (2) an imposed vertical free water velocity; and (3) a Darcy velocity, where the free water velocity is a function of the pressure gradient caused by the difference in density between water and the surrounding rocks. In addition, the flow of the solid material field also moves the free water in the imposed vertical velocity and Darcy schemes. We first test the influence of the water migration scheme using a simple model that simulates the sinking of a cold, hydrated cylinder into a dry, warm mantle. We find that the free water migration scheme has only a limited impact on the water distribution after 1 Myr in these models. We next investigate slab dehydration and mantle hydration with a thermomechanical subduction model that includes brittle behaviour and viscous water-dependent creep flow laws. Our models demonstrate that the bound water distribution is not greatly influenced by the water migration scheme whereas the free water distribution is. We find that a bound water-dependent creep flow law results in a broader area of hydration in the mantle wedge, which
A computational model of water migration flux of fine porous soil in frost heave was investigated in a closed system. The model was established with the heat-mass conservation law and from some previous experimental results. Through defining an auxiliary function an empirical function in the water migration flux, which is difficult to get, was replaced. The data needed are about the water content along the soft colunm after test with enough long time. We adopt the test data of sample soil colunms in  to verify the model. The result shows it can reflect the real situation on the whole.
Su, Jin-He; Piao, Ying-Chao; Luo, Ze; Yan, Bao-Ping
With the application of various data acquisition devices, a large number of animal movement data can be used to label presence data in remote sensing images and predict species distribution. In this paper, a two-stage classification approach for combining movement data and moderate-resolution remote sensing images was proposed. First, we introduced a new density-based clustering method to identify stopovers from migratory birds’ movement data and generated classification samples based on the clustering result. We split the remote sensing images into 16 × 16 patches and labeled them as positive samples if they have overlap with stopovers. Second, a multi-convolution neural network model is proposed for extracting the features from temperature data and remote sensing images, respectively. Then a Support Vector Machines (SVM) model was used to combine the features together and predict classification results eventually. The experimental analysis was carried out on public Landsat 5 TM images and a GPS dataset was collected on 29 birds over three years. The results indicated that our proposed method outperforms the existing baseline methods and was able to achieve good performance in habitat suitability prediction.
Roger T. Dean
Full Text Available Pearce (2011 provides a positive and interesting response to our article on time series analysis of the influences of acoustic properties on real-time perception of structure and affect in a section of Trevor Wishart’s Red Bird (Dean & Bailes, 2010. We address the following topics raised in the response and our paper. First, we analyse in depth the possible influence of spectral centroid, a timbral feature of the acoustic stream distinct from the high level general parameter we used initially, spectral flatness. We find that spectral centroid, like spectral flatness, is not a powerful predictor of real-time responses, though it does show some features that encourage its continued consideration. Second, we discuss further the issue of studying both individual responses, and as in our paper, group averaged responses. We show that a multivariate Vector Autoregression model handles the grand average series quite similarly to those of individual members of our participant groups, and we analyse this in greater detail with a wide range of approaches in work which is in press and continuing. Lastly, we discuss the nature and intent of computational modelling of cognition using acoustic and music- or information theoretic data streams as predictors, and how the music- or information theoretic approaches may be applied to electroacoustic music, which is ‘sound-based’ rather than note-centred like Western classical music.
Hindle, A.D. [Anadarko Algeria Corp., Middlesex (United Kingdom)
Petroleum migration pathways through a basin are determined by the three-dimensional distribution of discontinuous sealing surfaces, which are usually parallel to bedding. The petroleum migrates below the sealing surface, taking the structurally most advantageous route. The three-dimensional distribution of migration pathways within the petroleum system can be modeled on a personal computer using a program based on the parameters discussed in this paper. Application of the model to the Paris and Williston basins demonstrates that a good correlation between predicted pathways and discovered accumulations can be made using simple models. Pathways form a dense network overlying generating areas in the central parts of basins. Toward the basin margins these routes commonly become increasingly focused into discrete pathways by the sealing-surface morphologies. Eventually, these pathways may reach the surface as seepages. It is important to integrate surface outcrops of migration routes (surface seepages) into migration modeling. Deflection of the pathways from the structurally most advantageous route below the sealing surface may be caused by lateral sealing barriers due to faces variation in the carrier rock below the seal, fault juxtaposition, or cross-formational seals such as salt intrusions. Deflection of pathways also occurs where there are hydrodynamic conditions in response to topography-driven groundwater flow. Zones of vertical migration are associated with facies changes along the horizon of the sealing surface into a nonsealing facies, or juxtaposition to nonsealing strata by faults. Vertical migration from either normally or abnormally pressured strata is most likely to occur into normally or lesser pressured strata at intrabasinal highs where hydrocarbons can be stored and transferred at times of temporary seal rupture.
Brennan, Angela; Hanks, Ephraim M.; Merkle, Jerod A.; Cole, Eric K.; Dewey, Sarah R.; Courtemanch, Alyson B.; Cross, Paul C.
ContextLandscape resistance is vital to connectivity modeling and frequently derived from resource selection functions (RSFs). RSFs estimate relative probability of use and tend to focus on understanding habitat preferences during slow, routine animal movements (e.g., foraging). Dispersal and migration, however, can produce rarer, faster movements, in which case models of movement speed rather than resource selection may be more realistic for identifying habitats that facilitate connectivity.ObjectiveTo compare two connectivity modeling approaches applied to resistance estimated from models of movement rate and resource selection.MethodsUsing movement data from migrating elk, we evaluated continuous time Markov chain (CTMC) and movement-based RSF models (i.e., step selection functions [SSFs]). We applied circuit theory and shortest random path (SRP) algorithms to CTMC, SSF and null (i.e., flat) resistance surfaces to predict corridors between elk seasonal ranges. We evaluated prediction accuracy by comparing model predictions to empirical elk movements.ResultsAll connectivity models predicted elk movements well, but models applied to CTMC resistance were more accurate than models applied to SSF and null resistance. Circuit theory models were more accurate on average than SRP models.ConclusionsCTMC can be more realistic than SSFs for estimating resistance for fast movements, though SSFs may demonstrate some predictive ability when animals also move slowly through corridors (e.g., stopover use during migration). High null model accuracy suggests seasonal range data may also be critical for predicting direct migration routes. For animals that migrate or disperse across large landscapes, we recommend incorporating CTMC into the connectivity modeling toolkit.
Cristina R. Perez
Full Text Available Estimation of the surface area of the avian body is valuable for thermoregulation and metabolism studies as well as for assessing exposure to oil and other surface-active organic pollutants from a spill. The use of frozen carcasses for surface area estimations prevents the ability to modify the posture of the bird. The surface area of six live homing pigeons in the fully extended flight position was estimated using a noninvasive method. An equation was derived to estimate the total surface area of a pigeon based on its body weight. A pigeon's surface area in the fully extended flight position is approximately 4 times larger than the surface area of a pigeon in the perching position. The surface area of a bird is dependent on its physical position, and, therefore, the fully extended flight position exhibits the maximum area of a bird and should be considered the true surface area of a bird.
Kim, Jeongkon; Corapcioglu, M Yavuz
A vertically averaged two-dimensional model was developed to describe areal spreading and migration of light nonaqueous-phase liquids (LNAPLs) introduced into the subsurface by spills or leaks from underground storage tanks. The NAPL transport model was coupled with two-dimensional contaminant transport models to predict contamination of soil gas and groundwater resulting from a LNAPL migrating on the water table. Numerical solutions were obtained by using the finite-difference method. Simulations and sensitivity analyses were conducted with a LNAPL of pure benzene to study LNAPL migration and groundwater contamination. The model was applied to subsurface contamination by jet fuel. Results indicated that LNAPL migration were affected mostly by volatilization. The generation and movement of the dissolved plume was affected by the geology of the site and the free-product plume. Most of the spilled mass remained as a free LNAPL phase 20 years after the spill. The migration of LNAPL for such a long period resulted in the contamination of both groundwater and a large volume of soil.
Arends, T.; Taher, A.; van der Zanden, A.J.J.; Brouwers, H.J.H.; Bilek, V.; Kersner, Z.
In order to predict the life span of concrete structures, models describing the migration of chloride are needed. In this paper, a start is made with a simple, theoretical model describing water and chloride transport in a concrete sample. First, transport of water in concrete is considered with
Vaughn, P.; Butcher, B.; Helton, J.; Swift, P.
At the request of the WIPP Project Integration Office (WPIO) of the DOE, the WIPP Performance Assessment (PA) Department of Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) has completed preliminary uncertainty and sensitivity analyses of gas and brine migration away from the undisturbed repository. This paper contains descriptions of the numerical model and simulations, including model geometries and parameter values, and a summary of major conclusions from sensitivity analyses. Because significant transport of contaminants can only occur in a fluid (gas or brine) medium, two-phase flow modeling can provide an estimate of the distance to which contaminants can migrate. Migration of gas or brine beyond the RCRA ''disposal-unit boundary'' or the Standard's accessible environment constitutes a potential, but not certain, violation and may require additional evaluations of contaminant concentrations
Rodwell, W.R.; Nash, P.J.
This report discusses the mechanisms by which gas is able to migrate through the far-field. The mechanisms available are diffusion or advection of gas dissolved in groundwater or free gas phase flow as either bubbles or a continuous stream of gas. Modelling approaches adopted to assess the migration are (a) simple use of Darcy's law with an effective permeability to gas, (b) the development of a model based on the representation of the far-field rock as a bundle of capillaries with a suitable distribution of radii, and (c) the use of a numerical model of two-phase flow in porous media. Finally, surveys have been carried out of published work on gas escape from underground storage caverns and of literature relating to gas movement from underground hydrocarbon accumulations to determine whether these may be potential sources of data or understanding of underground gas migration relevant to that from deep waste repositories. (author)
Nagatani, Takashi; Tainaka, Kei-ichi
In most cases, physicists have studied the migration of biospecies by the use of random walk. In the present article, we apply cellular automaton of traffic model. For simplicity, we deal with an ecosystem contains a prey and predator, and use one-dimensional lattice with two layers. Preys stay on the first layer, but predators uni-directionally move on the second layer. The spatial and temporal evolution is numerically explored. It is shown that the migration has the important effect on populations of both prey and predator. Without migration, the phase transition between a prey-phase and coexisting-phase occurs. In contrast, the phase transition disappears by migration. This is because predator can survive due to migration. We find another phase transition for spatial distribution: in one phase, prey and predator form a stripe pattern of condensation and rarefaction, while in the other phase, they uniformly distribute. The self-organized stripe may be similar to the migration patterns in real ecosystems.
Tracer migration experiments are in progress at the Grimsel Test Site (GTS) in order to test radionuclide transport models and to develop appropriate experimental techniques. In order to assist design and to interpret field tracer tests the knowledge of the hydrology of the site is essential. This report describes the hydraulic modelling efforts with the following objectives: 1) to interpret experimental findings. 2) to provide input, such as flowpaths and flow velocities, for transport modelling. 3) to assist in the design of the tracer experiments. The model concept is based upon the observations, that the fracture, where the migration experiments will take place, is relatively planar, has an average aperture of a few millimeters and is filled with a clayish mateial: The migration fracture is modelled as a two-dimensional, isotropic, heterogeneous equivalent porous medium. To allow for a sufficiently detailed model a hierarchical approach was followed where the boundaries for the 'local' model, i.e. the model in the vicinity of the migration site, were taken by first solving a larger 'regional' model with coarser discretization. Transmissivity values as extracted from single borehole tests were used for definition of the heterogeneous transmissivity field in the model calculations. Model results for hydrostatic pressures and discharge rates compare favourably with experimental data, even though some problems remain to be resolved. Calculations for dipole arrangements have been performed; they turned out to be useful tools for deciding on injection- and withdrawal rates to be applied in the migration experiments as well as for qualitatively estimating tracer recovery rates. (author) 20 figs., 10 tabs., 11 refs
David P Stonko
Full Text Available Cell migration is essential in animal development, homeostasis, and disease progression, but many questions remain unanswered about how this process is controlled. While many kinds of individual cell movements have been characterized, less effort has been directed towards understanding how clusters of cells migrate collectively through heterogeneous, cellular environments. To explore this, we have focused on the migration of the border cells during Drosophila egg development. In this case, a cluster of different cell types coalesce and traverse as a group between large cells, called nurse cells, in the center of the egg chamber. We have developed a new model for this collective cell migration based on the forces of adhesion, repulsion, migration and stochastic fluctuation to generate the movement of discrete cells. We implement the model using Identical Math Cells, or IMCs. IMCs can each represent one biological cell of the system, or can be aggregated using increased adhesion forces to model the dynamics of larger biological cells. The domain of interest is filled with IMCs, each assigned specific biophysical properties to mimic a diversity of cell types. Using this system, we have successfully simulated the migration of the border cell cluster through an environment filled with larger cells, which represent nurse cells. Interestingly, our simulations suggest that the forces utilized in this model are sufficient to produce behaviors of the cluster that are observed in vivo, such as rotation. Our framework was developed to capture a heterogeneous cell population, and our implementation strategy allows for diverse, but precise, initial position specification over a three- dimensional domain. Therefore, we believe that this model will be useful for not only examining aspects of Drosophila oogenesis, but also for modeling other two or three-dimensional systems that have multiple cell types and where investigating the forces between cells is of
Stonko, David P; Manning, Lathiena; Starz-Gaiano, Michelle; Peercy, Bradford E
Cell migration is essential in animal development, homeostasis, and disease progression, but many questions remain unanswered about how this process is controlled. While many kinds of individual cell movements have been characterized, less effort has been directed towards understanding how clusters of cells migrate collectively through heterogeneous, cellular environments. To explore this, we have focused on the migration of the border cells during Drosophila egg development. In this case, a cluster of different cell types coalesce and traverse as a group between large cells, called nurse cells, in the center of the egg chamber. We have developed a new model for this collective cell migration based on the forces of adhesion, repulsion, migration and stochastic fluctuation to generate the movement of discrete cells. We implement the model using Identical Math Cells, or IMCs. IMCs can each represent one biological cell of the system, or can be aggregated using increased adhesion forces to model the dynamics of larger biological cells. The domain of interest is filled with IMCs, each assigned specific biophysical properties to mimic a diversity of cell types. Using this system, we have successfully simulated the migration of the border cell cluster through an environment filled with larger cells, which represent nurse cells. Interestingly, our simulations suggest that the forces utilized in this model are sufficient to produce behaviors of the cluster that are observed in vivo, such as rotation. Our framework was developed to capture a heterogeneous cell population, and our implementation strategy allows for diverse, but precise, initial position specification over a three- dimensional domain. Therefore, we believe that this model will be useful for not only examining aspects of Drosophila oogenesis, but also for modeling other two or three-dimensional systems that have multiple cell types and where investigating the forces between cells is of interest.
Ezequiel M Arneodo
Full Text Available Because of the parallels found with human language production and acquisition, birdsong is an ideal animal model to study general mechanisms underlying complex, learned motor behavior. The rich and diverse vocalizations of songbirds emerge as a result of the interaction between a pattern generator in the brain and a highly nontrivial nonlinear periphery. Much of the complexity of this vocal behavior has been understood by studying the physics of the avian vocal organ, particularly the syrinx. A mathematical model describing the complex periphery as a nonlinear dynamical system leads to the conclusion that nontrivial behavior emerges even when the organ is commanded by simple motor instructions: smooth paths in a low dimensional parameter space. An analysis of the model provides insight into which parameters are responsible for generating a rich variety of diverse vocalizations, and what the physiological meaning of these parameters is. By recording the physiological motor instructions elicited by a spontaneously singing muted bird and computing the model on a Digital Signal Processor in real-time, we produce realistic synthetic vocalizations that replace the bird's own auditory feedback. In this way, we build a bio-prosthetic avian vocal organ driven by a freely behaving bird via its physiologically coded motor commands. Since it is based on a low-dimensional nonlinear mathematical model of the peripheral effector, the emulation of the motor behavior requires light computation, in such a way that our bio-prosthetic device can be implemented on a portable platform.
Barber, G M; Milne, W J
"In this paper the determinants of internal migration in Kenya are analyzed on the basis of a human capital model. Explanatory variables included in the specification are both economic (wage rates and employment rates) and noneconomic (for example, population density and educational attainment). Also incorporated are variables which reflect intervening opportunities.... The econometric results show that destination variables are important determinants of internal migration, as is distance between the districts. Further, the variables for the intervening opportunities add significantly to the explanatory power of the model." excerpt
"This paper postulates that it is theoretically and empirically preferable to base internal labor migration on the relative difference in rural-urban real income streams and rates of unemployment, taken as separate and independent variables, rather than on the difference in the expected real income streams as postulated by the very influential and often quoted Todaro model. The paper goes on to specify several important ways of extending the resulting migration model and improving its empirical performance." The analysis is based on Italian data. excerpt
Rutqvist, Jonny [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Blanco-Martin, Laura [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Molins, Sergi [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Trebotich, David [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Birkholzer, Jens [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
In this report, we present FY2015 progress by Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) related to modeling of coupled thermal-hydrological-mechanical-chemical (THMC) processes in salt and their effect on brine migration at high temperatures. This is a combined milestone report related to milestone Salt R&D Milestone “Modeling Coupled THM Processes and Brine Migration in Salt at High Temperatures” (M3FT-15LB0818012) and the Salt Field Testing Milestone (M3FT-15LB0819022) to support the overall objectives of the salt field test planning.
Rutqvist, Jonny; Blanco-Martin, Laura; Molins, Sergi; Trebotich, David; Birkholzer, Jens
In this report, we present FY2015 progress by Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) related to modeling of coupled thermal-hydrological-mechanical-chemical (THMC) processes in salt and their effect on brine migration at high temperatures. This is a combined milestone report related to milestone Salt R&D Milestone ''Modeling Coupled THM Processes and Brine Migration in Salt at High Temperatures'' (M3FT-15LB0818012) and the Salt Field Testing Milestone (M3FT-15LB0819022) to support the overall objectives of the salt field test planning.
Facilities of modern software for modeling of groundwater transport and process of contaminant distribution are considered. Advantages of their application are discussed. The comparative analysis of mathematical modeling software of 'Groundwater modeling system' and 'Earth Science Module' from 'COMSOL Multiphysics' is carried out. (authors)
Rajaram, H.; Birdsell, D.; Lackey, G.; Karra, S.; Viswanathan, H. S.; Dempsey, D.
The dramatic increase in the extraction of unconventional oil and gas resources using horizontal wells and hydraulic fracturing (fracking) technologies has raised concerns about potential environmental impacts. Large volumes of hydraulic fracturing fluids are injected during fracking. Incidents of stray gas occurrence in shallow aquifers overlying shale gas reservoirs have been reported; whether these are in any way related to fracking continues to be debated. Computational models serve as useful tools for evaluating potential environmental impacts. We present modeling studies of hydraulic fracturing fluid and gas migration during the various stages of well operation, production, and subsequent plugging. The fluid migration models account for overpressure in the gas reservoir, density contrast between injected fluids and brine, imbibition into partially saturated shale, and well operations. Our results highlight the importance of representing the different stages of well operation consistently. Most importantly, well suction and imbibition both play a significant role in limiting upward migration of injected fluids, even in the presence of permeable connecting pathways. In an overall assessment, our fluid migration simulations suggest very low risk to groundwater aquifers when the vertical separation from a shale gas reservoir is of the order of 1000' or more. Multi-phase models of gas migration were developed to couple flow and transport in compromised wellbores and subsurface formations. These models are useful for evaluating both short-term and long-term scenarios of stray methane release. We present simulation results to evaluate mechanisms controlling stray gas migration, and explore relationships between bradenhead pressures and the likelihood of methane release and transport.
O'Brien, Susan H; Cook, Aonghais S C P; Robinson, Robert A
Assessing the potential impact of additional mortality from anthropogenic causes on animal populations requires detailed demographic information. However, these data are frequently lacking, making simple algorithms, which require little data, appealing. Because of their simplicity, these algorithms often rely on implicit assumptions, some of which may be quite restrictive. Potential Biological Removal (PBR) is a simple harvest model that estimates the number of additional mortalities that a population can theoretically sustain without causing population extinction. However, PBR relies on a number of implicit assumptions, particularly around density dependence and population trajectory that limit its applicability in many situations. Among several uses, it has been widely employed in Europe in Environmental Impact Assessments (EIA), to examine the acceptability of potential effects of offshore wind farms on marine bird populations. As a case study, we use PBR to estimate the number of additional mortalities that a population with characteristics typical of a seabird population can theoretically sustain. We incorporated this level of additional mortality within Leslie matrix models to test assumptions within the PBR algorithm about density dependence and current population trajectory. Our analyses suggest that the PBR algorithm identifies levels of mortality which cause population declines for most population trajectories and forms of population regulation. Consequently, we recommend that practitioners do not use PBR in an EIA context for offshore wind energy developments. Rather than using simple algorithms that rely on potentially invalid implicit assumptions, we recommend use of Leslie matrix models for assessing the impact of additional mortality on a population, enabling the user to explicitly define assumptions and test their importance. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Fairchild, Dana M [Armour, SD
The bird guard provides a device to protect electrical insulators comprising a central shaft; a clamp attached to an end of the shaft to secure the device to a transmission tower; a top and bottom cover to shield transmission tower insulators; and bearings to allow the guard to rotate in order to frighten birds away from the insulators.
In oil reservoir engineering, multi-phase displacement processes are important. This doctoral thesis describes simulations of the slow displacement of a wetting fluid by a non-wetting fluid in a complex, random porous medium and in a single fracture. The study is restricted to two-phase flow in the quasi-static limit in which viscous forces can be neglected. The secondary migration of oil takes place in this regime, however, the discussion is broader in scope. The thesis connects the problem of slow two-phase flow to percolation theory and discusses the mechanisms that control immiscible displacements. A new, modified version of the invasion percolation model is used to simulate an imbibition process in a porous medium and the migration of a cluster of non-wetting fluid through a porous medium saturated with a wetting fluid. The simulations include the secondary migration of oil through porous homogeneous rock. Fluid migration through heterogeneous porous media is simulated qualitatively. Slow displacement of a wetting fluid by a non-wetting fluid in a single rock fracture is simulated by using the standard invasion percolation model. Experiments and simulations are performed to study the fragmentation of invasion percolation-like structures of non-wetting fluid in a porous medium saturated with a wetting fluid. A scenario is studied in which a cluster of non-wettable fluid migrates through a porous medium that is saturated with a wetting fluid, the migration being driven by continuously increasing buoyancy forces. There is a simulation of the secondary migration of oil in both two- and three-dimensional media. 361 refs., 115 figs.
A novel approach to the modelling of two-dimensional migration patterns of soluble waste in soils is presented. This approach, albeit very simple and straightforward, was found to be powerful enough to simulate several aspects of the migration of conservative tracers in non-sorptive soils. In brief, the finite-difference technique is adopted for the solution of the two-dimensional advection-dispersion equation. Since the simulated data were to be verified against experimental data obtained through the use of radioactive tracers, the numerical model was modified to take into account the corresponding experimental aspects, with special regard to the attenuation of radiation through the soil mass. The introduction of this correcting factor rendered the simulation quite faithful to the experimental data, thus suggesting the feasibility of the proposed approach for the two-dimensional analysis of waste migration. (author)
Kirwan, Matthew L.; Walters, David C.; Reay, William G.; Carr, Joel
Coastal wetlands are among the most valuable ecosystems on Earth, where ecosystem services such as flood protection depend nonlinearly on wetland size and are threatened by sea level rise and coastal development. Here we propose a simple model of marsh migration into adjacent uplands and couple it with existing models of seaward edge erosion and vertical soil accretion to explore how ecosystem connectivity influences marsh size and response to sea level rise. We find that marsh loss is nearly inevitable where topographic and anthropogenic barriers limit migration. Where unconstrained by barriers, however, rates of marsh migration are much more sensitive to accelerated sea level rise than rates of edge erosion. This behavior suggests a counterintuitive, natural tendency for marsh expansion with sea level rise and emphasizes the disparity between coastal response to climate change with and without human intervention.
Bignoli, G.; Bertozzi, G.
The aim of this report is to present a compilation and description of models to assess the environmental behaviour and effects of accidental and routine releases of artificial radioactivity from nuclear power facilities. About 60 models are described and a card is given for each one, to indicate in summarized form its features and data content. This collection is intended to help in developing specific personal models by assembling different parts chosen among the most suitable ones of different models of various degrees of sophistication
Constantine, Candice R.; Dunne, Thomas; Hanson, Gregory J.
Widely used models of meander evolution relate migration rate to vertically averaged near-bank velocity through the use of a coefficient of bank erosion ( E). In applications to floodplain management problems, E is typically determined through calibration to historical planform changes, and thus its physical meaning remains unclear. This study attempts to clarify the extent to which E depends on measurable physical characteristics of the channel boundary materials using data from the Sacramento River, California, USA. Bend-average values of E were calculated from measured long-term migration rates and computed near-bank velocities. In the field, unvegetated bank material resistance to fluvial shear ( k) was measured for four cohesive and noncohesive bank types using a jet-test device. At a small set of bends for which both E and k were obtained, we discovered that variability in k explains much of the variability in E. The form of this relationship suggests that when modeling long-term meander migration of large rivers, E depends largely on bank material properties. This finding opens up the possibility that E may be estimated directly from field data, enabling prediction of meander migration rates for systems where historical data are unavailable or controlling conditions have changed. Another implication is that vegetation plays a limited role in affecting long-term meander migration rates of large rivers like the Sacramento River. These hypotheses require further testing with data sets from other large rivers.
Full Text Available Cell migration in the intestinal crypt is essential for the regular renewal of the epithelium, and the continued upward movement of cells is a key characteristic of healthy crypt dynamics. However, the driving force behind this migration is unknown. Possibilities include mitotic pressure, active movement driven by motility cues, or negative pressure arising from cell loss at the crypt collar. It is possible that a combination of factors together coordinate migration. Here, three different computational models are used to provide insight into the mechanisms that underpin cell movement in the crypt, by examining the consequence of eliminating cell division on cell movement. Computational simulations agree with existing experimental results, confirming that migration can continue in the absence of mitosis. Importantly, however, simulations allow us to infer mechanisms that are sufficient to generate cell movement, which is not possible through experimental observation alone. The results produced by the three models agree and suggest that cell loss due to apoptosis and extrusion at the crypt collar relieves cell compression below, allowing cells to expand and move upwards. This finding suggests that future experiments should focus on the role of apoptosis and cell extrusion in controlling cell migration in the crypt.
Hanusik, V.; Mitro, A.; Chorvat, D.
Two models are compared used for describing the transfer of radioactive substances to man through food chains: the model used in US NRC Regulatory Guide 1.109 and that used in Interatomehnergo NTD No. 38.220.56-81. The models are compared with regard to the approach to model construction, with regard to mathematical expressions and recommended values of parameters. The comparative calculations show that with the use of the recommended values the contribution of direct contamination is prevalent in both models. The concentration of radioactive substances in selected products calculated for indirect contamination using the NRC method is more conservative. For direct and total contamination the NRC method provides higher values of concentrations in the leaf and non-leaf vegetables (cabbage, potatoes, cucumbers) than the NTD method. Concentrations in non-leaf vegetables are higher than in wheat for 4 nuclides only and in meat and milk for 13 radionuclides of the considered set of 22 radionuclides. Substitution of the recommended values of the parameters of the NRC model with recommended values of the corresponding parameters of the NTD model will reduce total concentrations in products as against initial results of the two studied models. (author)
Liechti, F.; Klaassen, M.R.J.; Bruderer, B.
Using the altitudinal profiles of wind, temperature, pressure, and humidity in three flight models, we tried to explain the altitudinal distributions of nocturnal migrants recorded by radar above a desert in southern Israel. In the simplest model, only the tailwind component was used as a predictor
Su, Jin-He; Piao, Ying-Chao; Luo, Ze; Yan, Bao-Ping
Simple Summary The understanding of the spatio-temporal distribution of the species habitats would facilitate wildlife resource management and conservation efforts. Existing methods have poor performance due to the limited availability of training samples. More recently, location-aware sensors have been widely used to track animal movements. The aim of the study was to generate suitability maps of bar-head geese using movement data coupled with environmental parameters, such as remote sensing images and temperature data. Therefore, we modified a deep convolutional neural network for the multi-scale inputs. The results indicate that the proposed method can identify the areas with the dense goose species around Qinghai Lake. In addition, this approach might also be interesting for implementation in other species with different niche factors or in areas where biological survey data are scarce. Abstract With the application of various data acquisition devices, a large number of animal movement data can be used to label presence data in remote sensing images and predict species distribution. In this paper, a two-stage classification approach for combining movement data and moderate-resolution remote sensing images was proposed. First, we introduced a new density-based clustering method to identify stopovers from migratory birds’ movement data and generated classification samples based on the clustering result. We split the remote sensing images into 16 × 16 patches and labeled them as positive samples if they have overlap with stopovers. Second, a multi-convolution neural network model is proposed for extracting the features from temperature data and remote sensing images, respectively. Then a Support Vector Machines (SVM) model was used to combine the features together and predict classification results eventually. The experimental analysis was carried out on public Landsat 5 TM images and a GPS dataset was collected on 29 birds over three years. The results
King, C.M.; Root, R.W. Jr.
Solid waste has been buried at the Savannah River Plant burial ground since 1953. The solid waste is contaminated with alpha-emitting transuranium (TRU) nuclides, with beta-gamma-emitting activation and fission products, and with tritium. To provide guidance for the current use and eventual permanent retirement of the burial site from active service, a radionuclide environmental transport model has been used to project the potential influence on man if the burial site were occupied after decommissioning. The model used to simulate nuclide migration includes the various hydrological, animal, vegetative, atmospheric, and terrestrial pathways in estimating dose to man as a function of time. Specific scenarios include a four-person home farm on the 195-acre burial ground. Key input to the model includes site-specific nuclide migration rates through soil, nuclide distribution coefficients, and site topography. Coupled with literature data on plant and animal concentration factors, transfer coefficients reflecting migration routes are input to a set of linear differential equations for subsequent matrix solution. Output from the model is the nuclide-specific decayed curie intake by man. To discern principal migration routes, model-compartment inventories with time can also be displayed. Dose projections subsequently account for organ concentrations in man for the nuclide of interest. Radionuclide migration has been examined in depth with the dose-to-man model. Movement by vegetative pathways is the primary route for potential dose to man for short-lived isotopes. Hydrological routes provide a secondary scheme for long-lived nuclides. Details of model methodology are reviewed
Dai, S.; Feng, D.; Xu, B.
The outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) of the H5N1 subtype in wild birds and poultry have caught worldwide attention. To explore the association between wild bird migration and avian influenza virus transmission, we monitored potential geographical distribution of four wild bird species that might carry the avian influenza viruses in China. They are Bar-headed geese (Anser indicus), Ruddy Shelduck (Tadorna ferruginea), Whooper Swan (Cygnus cygnus) and Black-headed Gull (Larus ridibundus). They served as major reservoir of the avian influenza viruses. We used bird watching records with the precise latitude/longitude coordinates from January 2002 to August 2014, and environmental variables with a pixel resolution of 5 km × 5 km from 2002 to 2014. The study utilized maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model based on ecological niche model approaches, and got the following results: 1) MaxEnt model have good discriminatory ability with the area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating curve (ROC) of 0.86-0.97; 2) The four wild bird species were estimated to concentrate in the North China Plain, the middle and lower region of the Yangtze River, Qinghai Lake, Tianshan Mountain and Tarim Basin, part of Tibet Plateau, and Hengduan Mountains; 3) Radiation and the minimum temperature were found to provide the most significant information. Our findings will help to understand the spread of avian influenza viruses by wild bird migration in China, which benefits for effective monitoring strategies and prevention measures.
Banyard, Jacqueline; Chung, Ivy; Migliozzi, Matthew; Phan, Derek T; Wilson, Arianne M; Zetter, Bruce R; Bielenberg, Diane R
Understanding the complex, multistep process of metastasis remains a major challenge in cancer research. Metastasis models can reveal insights in tumor development and progression and provide tools to test new intervention strategies. To develop a new cancer metastasis model, we used DU145 human prostate cancer cells and performed repeated rounds of orthotopic prostate injection and selection of subsequent lymph node metastases. Tumor growth, metastasis, cell migration and invasion were analyzed. Microarray analysis was used to identify cell migration- and cancer-related genes correlating with metastasis. Selected genes were silenced using siRNA, and their roles in cell migration and invasion were determined in transwell migration and Matrigel invasion assays. Our in vivo cycling strategy created cell lines with dramatically increased tumorigenesis and increased ability to colonize lymph nodes (DU145LN1-LN4). Prostate tumor xenografts displayed increased vascularization, enlarged podoplanin-positive lymphatic vessels and invasive margins. Microarray analysis revealed gene expression profiles that correlated with metastatic potential. Using gene network analysis we selected 3 significantly upregulated cell movement and cancer related genes for further analysis: EPCAM (epithelial cell adhesion molecule), ITGB4 (integrin β4) and PLAU (urokinase-type plasminogen activator (uPA)). These genes all showed increased protein expression in the more metastatic DU145-LN4 cells compared to the parental DU145. SiRNA knockdown of EpCAM, integrin-β4 or uPA all significantly reduced cell migration in DU145-LN4 cells. In contrast, only uPA siRNA inhibited cell invasion into Matrigel. This role of uPA in cell invasion was confirmed using the uPA inhibitors, amiloride and UK122. Our approach has identified genes required for the migration and invasion of metastatic tumor cells, and we propose that our new in vivo model system will be a powerful tool to interrogate the metastatic
Evenson, D.E.; Dettinger, M.D.
Three broad areas of concern in the development of aquifer scale transport models will be local scale diffusion and dispersion processes, regional scale dispersion processes, and numerical problems associated with the advection-dispersion equation. Local scale dispersion processes are fairly well understood and accessible to observation. These processes will generally be dominated in large scale systems by regional processes, or macro-dispersion. Macro-dispersion is primarily the result of large scale heterogeneities in aquifer properties. In addition, the effects of many modeling approximations are often included in the process. Because difficulties arise in parameterization of this large scale phenomenon, parameterization should be based on field measurements made at the same scale as the transport process of interest or else partially circumvented through the application of a probabilistic advection model. Other problems associated with numerical transport models include difficulties with conservation of mass, stability, numerical dissipation, overshoot, flexibility, and efficiency. We recommend the random-walk model formulation for Lawrence Livermore Laboratory's purposes as the most flexible, accurate and relatively efficient modeling approach that overcomes these difficulties
Kharis, M.; Amidi
The development of the industrial world and human life is increasingly modern and less attention to environmental sustainability causes the virus causes the epidemic has a high tendency to mutate so that the virus that initially only attack animals, is also found to have the ability to attack humans. The epidemics that lasted some time were bird flu epidemics and swine flu epidemics. The flu epidemic led to several deaths and many people admitted to the hospital. Strain (derivatives) of H5N1 virus was identified as the cause of the bird flu epidemic while the H1N1 strain of the virus was identified as the cause of the swine flu epidemic. The symptoms are similar to seasonal flu caused by H3N2 strain of the virus. Outbreaks of bird flu and swine flu initially only attacked animals, but over time some people were found to be infected with the virus.
James F. Selgrade; Jordan West Bostic; James H. Roberds
To study the effects of immigration of genes (possibly transgenic) into a natural population, a one-island selection-migration model with density-dependent regulation is used to track allele frequency and population size. The existence and uniqueness of a polymorphic genetic equilibrium is proved under a general assumption about dominance in fitnesses. Also, conditions...
Corti, G.; Bonini, M.; Sokoutis, D.; Innocenti, F.; Manetti, P.; Cloetingh, S.A.P.L.; Mulugeta, G.
Small-scale centrifuge models were used to investigate the role of continental rift structure in controlling patterns of magma migration and emplacement. Experiments considered the reactivation of weakness zones in the lower crust and the presence of magma at Moho depths. Results suggest that
James H. Roberds; James F. Selgrade
A system of non-linear difference equations is used to model the effects of density-dependent selection and migration in a population characterized by two alleles at a single gene locus. Results for the existence and stability of polymorphic equilibria are established. Properties for a genetically important class of equilibria associated with complete dominance in...
Gibbs, Susan; Spiekstra, Sander; Corsini, Emanuela; McLeod, Julie; Reinders, Judith
This manuscript describes methodology and a prediction model for the MUTZ-LC migration assay. The assay represents the physiological change in Langerhans cell (LC) behavior after exposure to a sensitizing chemical, resulting in LC migration from the epidermis to the dermis. MUTZ-LC are derived from the commercially available MUTZ-3 cell line. Upon exposure to a sensitizer MUTZ-LC migrate preferentially towards CXCL12 whereas upon exposure to a non-sensitizer MUTZ-LC migrate towards CCL5. A CXCL12/CCL5 ratio >1.10 in 2/3 independent experiments is indicative of a sensitizer, whereas a CXCL12/CCL5 ratio ≤1.10 is indicative of a non-sensitizer. At non cytotoxic chemical concentrations 9 sensitizers (2,4-dinitrochlorobenzene, paraphenylendiamine, cinnamaldehyde, isoeugenol, nickel-sulfate, tetramethylthiuram disulfide, eugenol, cinnamic-alcohol, ammonium-hexachloroplatinate) were distinguished from 4 non sensitizers (sodium lauryl sulfate, salicylic acid, phenol, octanoic acid). Critical points in assay performance are (i) MUTZ-3 passage number after thawing (p6-p40); (ii) cell viability (>80%); (iii) standard curve to optimize correlation of fluorescence with cell number; and (iv) optimization of the concentration of rhCXCL12 and rhCCL5 in transwell. The protocol has been tested in three European laboratories and results suggest that it may provide working conditions for performing the DC migration assay which is aimed at distinguishing sensitizers from non sensitizers. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Copenhagen, Katherine; Gov, Nir; Gopinathan, Ajay
Collective motion of cells is a common occurrence in many biological systems, including tissue development and repair, and tumor formation. Recent experiments have shown cells form clusters in a chemical gradient, which display three different phases of motion: translational, rotational, and random. We present a model for cell clusters based loosely on other models seen in the literature that involves a Vicsek-like alignment as well as physical collisions and adhesions between cells. With this model we show that a mechanism for driving rotational motion in this kind of system is an increased motility of rim cells. Further, we examine the details of the relationship between rim and core cells, and find that the phases of the cluster as a whole are correlated with the creation and annihilation of topological defects in the tangential component of the velocity field.
Background: In a recent Monte Carlo simulation, the clustering of body height of Swiss military conscripts within a spatial network with characteristic features of the natural Swiss geography was investigated. In this study I examined the effect of migration of tall individuals into network hubs on the dynamics of body height within the whole spatial network. The aim of this study was to simulate height trends. Material and methods: Three networks were used for modeling, a regular rectangular fishing net like network, a real world example based on the geographic map of Switzerland, and a random network. All networks contained between 144 and 148 districts and between 265-307 road connections. Around 100,000 agents were initially released with average height of 170 cm, and height standard deviation of 6.5 cm. The simulation was started with the a priori assumption that height variation within a district is limited and also depends on height of neighboring districts (community effect on height). In addition to a neighborhood influence factor, which simulates a community effect, body height dependent migration of conscripts between adjacent districts in each Monte Carlo simulation was used to re-calculate next generation body heights. In order to determine the direction of migration for taller individuals, various centrality measures for the evaluation of district importance within the spatial network were applied. Taller individuals were favored to migrate more into network hubs, backward migration using the same number of individuals was random, not biased towards body height. Network hubs were defined by the importance of a district within the spatial network. The importance of a district was evaluated by various centrality measures. In the null model there were no road connections, height information could not be delivered between the districts. Results: Due to the favored migration of tall individuals into network hubs, average body height of the hubs, and later
Borau, C; García-Aznar, J M; Kamm, R D
Cell migration is essential for tissue development in different physiological and pathological conditions. It is a complex process orchestrated by chemistry, biological factors, microstructure and surrounding mechanical properties. Focusing on the mechanical interactions, cells do not only exert forces on the matrix that surrounds them, but they also sense and react to mechanical cues in a process called mechano-sensing. Here, we hypothesize the involvement of mechano-sensing in the regulation of directional cell migration through a three-dimensional (3D) matrix. For this purpose, we develop a 3D numerical model of individual cell migration, which incorporates the mechano-sensing process of the cell as the main mechanism regulating its movement. Consistent with this hypothesis, we found that factors, such as substrate stiffness, boundary conditions and external forces, regulate specific and distinct cell movements
Full Text Available We have developed a microfluidic-based culture chip to simulate cancer cell migration and invasion across the basement membrane. In this microfluidic chip, a 3D microenvironment is engineered to culture metastatic breast cancer cells (MX1 in a 3D tumor model. A chemo-attractant was incorporated to stimulate motility across the membrane. We validated the usefulness of the chip by tracking the motilities of the cancer cells in the system, showing them to be migrating or invading (akin to metastasis. It is shown that our system can monitor cell migration in real time, as compare to Boyden chambers, for example. Thus, the chip will be of interest to the drug-screening community as it can potentially be used to monitor the behavior of cancer cell motility, and, therefore, metastasis, in the presence of anti-cancer drugs.
Martell, M.; Vaughn, P.
Mining has always had an important influence on cultures and traditions of communities around the globe and throughout history. Today, because mining legislation places heavy emphasis on environmental protection, there is great interest in having a comprehensive understanding of ancient mining and mining sites. Multi-disciplinary approaches (i.e., Pb isotopes as tracers) are being used to explore the distribution of metals in natural environments. Another successful approach is to model solution migration numerically. A proven method to simulate solution migration in natural rock salt has been applied to project through time for 10,000 years the system performance and solution concentrations surrounding a proposed nuclear waste repository. This capability is readily adaptable to simulate solution migration around mining
Wilts, Bodo D; Michielsen, Kristel; De Raedt, Hans; Stavenga, Doekele G
Birds-of-paradise are nature's prime examples of the evolution of color by sexual selection. Their brilliant, structurally colored feathers play a principal role in mating displays. The structural coloration of both the occipital and breast feathers of the bird-of-paradise Lawes' parotia is produced by melanin rodlets arranged in layers, together acting as interference reflectors. Light reflection by the silvery colored occipital feathers is unidirectional as in a classical multilayer, but the reflection by the richly colored breast feathers is three-directional and extraordinarily complex. Here we show that the reflection properties of both feather types can be quantitatively explained by finite-difference time-domain modeling using realistic feather anatomies and experimentally determined refractive index dispersion values of keratin and melanin. The results elucidate the interplay between avian coloration and vision and indicate tuning of the mating displays to the spectral properties of the avian visual system.
The humic acid transport of heavy metals in underground water was investigated in laboratory experiments using the lanthanide Eu in the form of 152 Eu 3+ , which is both a model heavy metal and an indicator for assessing the potential hazards of ultimate storage sites for radioactive waste [de
Munk, Martin D.; Nikolka, Till; Poutvaara, Panu
Gender differences in labor force participation are exceptionally small in Nordic countries. We investigate how couples emigrating from Denmark self-select and sort into different destinations and whether couples pursue the dual-earner model, in which both partners work, when abroad. Female labor...
Tricia A. Miller; Brooks Robert P.; Michael J. Lanzone; David Brandes; Jeff Cooper; Junior A. Tremblay; Jay Wilhelm; Adam Duerr; Todd E. Katzner
Migration is costly in terms of time, energy and safety. Optimal migration theory suggests that individual migratory birds will choose between these three costs depending on their motivation and available resources. To test hypotheses about use of migratory strategies by large soaring birds, we used GPS telemetry to track 18 adult, 13 sub-adult and 15 juvenile Golden...
Nash, P.J.; Swift, B.T.; Goodfield, M.; Rodwell, W.R.
This report describes the first phase of a programme of work that has as its overall objective the development of a computational model that can simulate the results of experiments on gas migration through highly compacted bentonite, and will provide the basis of a model suitable to assess the effects of bentonite barriers on the build-up of pressure and the escape of hydrogen gas from disposal canisters in a radioactive waste repository. In this first phase of the project, the possible mechanisms and controlling features of gas migration through compacted bentonite have been reviewed, and a preliminary computational model of the process has been implemented and evaluated. In the model it is assumed that gas invasion of the clay occurs by induced microfissuring, and that the permeability of the pathways thus created depends on the gas pressure (or the effective stress). Experimental data on gas migration in compacted bentonite that was collected under well controlled conditions by Horseman and Harrington was used in a preliminary evaluation of the new model. The model was able to reproduce qualitatively all the features seen in the subset of the experimental data used in the evaluation, and to provide quantitative agreement to substantial sections of the results of test sequences, but quantitative agreement between simulation and experimental results over a whole test sequence was not obtained. As part of the model evaluation, the dependence of the results obtained on key model parameters is reported. Outline plans for a further phase of work are suggested. (orig.)
Nash, P.J.; Swift, B.T.; Goodfield, M.; Rodwell, W.R. [AEA Technology plc, Dorchester (United Kingdom)
This report describes the first phase of a programme of work that has as its overall objective the development of a computational model that can simulate the results of experiments on gas migration through highly compacted bentonite, and will provide the basis of a model suitable to assess the effects of bentonite barriers on the build-up of pressure and the escape of hydrogen gas from disposal canisters in a radioactive waste repository. In this first phase of the project, the possible mechanisms and controlling features of gas migration through compacted bentonite have been reviewed, and a preliminary computational model of the process has been implemented and evaluated. In the model it is assumed that gas invasion of the clay occurs by induced microfissuring, and that the permeability of the pathways thus created depends on the gas pressure (or the effective stress). Experimental data on gas migration in compacted bentonite that was collected under well controlled conditions by Horseman and Harrington was used in a preliminary evaluation of the new model. The model was able to reproduce qualitatively all the features seen in the subset of the experimental data used in the evaluation, and to provide quantitative agreement to substantial sections of the results of test sequences, but quantitative agreement between simulation and experimental results over a whole test sequence was not obtained. As part of the model evaluation, the dependence of the results obtained on key model parameters is reported. Outline plans for a further phase of work are suggested. (orig.) 32 refs.
Perez, Cristina R; Moye, John K; Pritsos, Chris A
Estimation of the surface area of the avian body is valuable for thermoregulation and metabolism studies as well as for assessing exposure to oil and other surface-active organic pollutants from a spill. The use of frozen carcasses for surface area estimations prevents the ability to modify the posture of the bird. The surface area of six live homing pigeons in the fully extended flight position was estimated using a noninvasive method. An equation was derived to estimate the total surface area of a pigeon based on its body weight. A pigeon's surface area in the fully extended flight position is approximately 4 times larger than the surface area of a pigeon in the perching position. The surface area of a bird is dependent on its physical position, and, therefore, the fully extended flight position exhibits the maximum area of a bird and should be considered the true surface area of a bird. © 2014. Published by The Company of Biologists Ltd | Biology Open.
The study was conducted on the Serengeti Plains, Tanzania, combining (1) records from a bird survey, (2) local measurements of vegetation structure and precipitation, and (3) a habitat map derived from a Landsat satellite image classification. The question of whether ground-based or satellite data explained more of the ...
Piault, E.; van Dorpe, F.; Cartalade, A.; Beaucaire, C.; Fernandez, J.M.
Full text of publication follows: In 1960, the Institute of Nuclear Protection and Safety of the French Atomic Energy Commission (CEA/IPSN) had launched a research program to quantify the soil-plant transfer of 90 Sr (transfer between soils, grapes and wine). The studies were conducted in-situ with the help of the National Institute for Agronomic Research (INRA) on an experimental site of Mediterranean type. The experiments consisted in contaminating with soluble strontium salt solutions (SrCl 2 ) a 400 m 2 (10 m x 40 m) piece of land bordered by two uncontaminated strip used as blanks. Prior to planting, the superficial layer of the contaminated plot had then been ploughed in order to homogenize the contamination on a depth of about 10 cm. Over time, the radionuclide was transported from the surface layer to the underground layers of the plot due to climatic factors. The 90 Sr migration over the last 40 years was studied owing eight 70 cm deep cores to perform a radiological and physico-chemical characterization of the soil. The vertical migration modelling of 90 Sr required the definition of a triple layers model whose the only external factor of influence considered is the rainwater infiltration at constant flux. Simulations were made using the code PORFLOW and also the code CAST3M, developed by CEA. These codes solve calculations of flows in unsaturated porous media taking into account the sorption/desorption phenomena of chemical species and radioactive decay. To complete the study an estimation of 90 Sr K d sorption coefficient (used by transfer models) using ion-exchange model was carried out for each layers. The dependence of 90 Sr K d on competitor cations present in fluids is analysed. The study shows that the agreement between the experimental and simulated results is acceptable if the characterization steps, including sampling are properly undertaken. The necessity to characterize the site according to needs of numerical modelling, in an iterative cycle
Klabunde, Anna; Willekens, Frans
We review agent-based models (ABM) of human migration with respect to their decision-making rules. The most prominent behavioural theories used as decision rules are the random utility theory, as implemented in the discrete choice model, and the theory of planned behaviour. We identify the critical choices that must be made in developing an ABM, namely the modelling of decision processes and social networks. We also discuss two challenges that hamper the widespread use of ABM in the study of migration and, more broadly, demography and the social sciences: (a) the choice and the operationalisation of a behavioural theory (decision-making and social interaction) and (b) the selection of empirical evidence to validate the model. We offer advice on how these challenges might be overcome.
Rodwell, W.R.; Nash, P.J.
In assessing the post-closure safety of a deep radioactive waste repository, it is necessary to show that gas generated within the repository can migrate away, through the far-field geology, without affecting repository safety. This paper discusses the contribution of various mechanisms to gas migration through the far field; for example, diffusion of dissolved gas versus gas-phase movement, and bubble flow versus formation of a connected gas stream. It outlines different approaches to modelling gas movement from a repository, with simple semi-analytical models furnishing physical insights into the factors controlling gas migration in the absence of directly applicable experimental data, and more comprehensive numerical computations allowing the exploration of more detailed behaviour when appropriate data is obtained. If gas can induce groundwater movement, this could accelerate the transport of water-borne contaminants. Processes by which this could occur are noted, and the current status of work on possible effects of gas migration on groundwater movement in fractured hard rocks is indicated. 14 refs., 4 figs
La Sorte, Frank A; Fink, Daniel
A number of terrestrial bird species that breed in North America cross the Atlantic Ocean during autumn migration when travelling to their non-breeding grounds in the Caribbean or South America. When conducting oceanic crossings, migratory birds tend to associate with mild or supportive winds, whose speed and direction may change under global warming. The implications of these changes for transoceanic migratory bird populations have not been addressed. We used occurrence information from eBird (1950-2015) to estimate the geographical location of population centres at a daily temporal resolution across the annual cycle for 10 transatlantic migratory bird species. We used this information to estimate the location and timing of autumn migration within the transatlantic flyway. We estimated how prevailing winds are projected to change within the transatlantic flyway during this time using daily wind speed anomalies (1996-2005 and 2091-2100) from 29 Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models implemented under CMIP5. Autumn transatlantic migrants have the potential to encounter strong westerly crosswinds early in their transatlantic journey at intermediate and especially high migration altitudes, strong headwinds at low and intermediate migration altitudes within the Caribbean that increase in strength as the season progresses, and weak tailwinds at intermediate and high migration altitudes east of the Caribbean. The CMIP5 simulations suggest that, during this century, the likelihood of autumn transatlantic migrants encountering strong westerly crosswinds will diminish. As global warming progresses, the need for species to compensate or drift under the influence of strong westerly crosswinds during the initial phase of their autumn transatlantic journey may be diminished. Existing strategies that promote headwind avoidance and tailwind assistance will likely remain valid. Thus, climate change may reduce time and energy requirements and the chance of mortality or
Rudini; Nasir Matori, Abd; Talib, Jasmi Ab; Balogun, Abdul-Lateef
The purpose of this study is to model the migration of hydrocarbon using Geographic Information System (GIS). Understanding hydrocarbon migration is important since it can mean the difference between success and failure in oil and gas exploration project. The hydrocarbon migration modeling using geophysical method is still not accurate due to the limitations of available data. In recent years, GIS has emerged as a powerful tool for subsurface mapping and analysis. Recent studies have been carried out about the abilities of GIS to model hydrocarbon migration. Recent advances in GIS support the establishment and monitoring of prediction hydrocarbon migration. The concept, model, and calculation are based on the current geological situation. The spatial data of hydrocarbon reservoirs is determined by its geometry of lithology and geophysical attributes. Top of Group E horizon of north-east Malay basin was selected as the study area due to the occurrence of hydrocarbon migration. Spatial data and attributes data such as seismic data, wells log data and lithology were acquired and processed. Digital Elevation Model (DEM) was constructed from the selected horizon as a result of seismic interpretation using the Petrel software. Furthermore, DEM was processed in ArcGIS as a base map to shown hydrocarbon migration in north-east Malay Basin. Finally, all the data layers were overlaid to produce a map of hydrocarbon migration. A good data was imported to verify the model is correct.
Full Text Available The purpose of this study is to model the migration of hydrocarbon using Geographic Information System (GIS. Understanding hydrocarbon migration is important since it can mean the difference between success and failure in oil and gas exploration project. The hydrocarbon migration modeling using geophysical method is still not accurate due to the limitations of available data. In recent years, GIS has emerged as a powerful tool for subsurface mapping and analysis. Recent studies have been carried out about the abilities of GIS to model hydrocarbon migration. Recent advances in GIS support the establishment and monitoring of prediction hydrocarbon migration. The concept, model, and calculation are based on the current geological situation. The spatial data of hydrocarbon reservoirs is determined by its geometry of lithology and geophysical attributes. Top of Group E horizon of north-east Malay basin was selected as the study area due to the occurrence of hydrocarbon migration. Spatial data and attributes data such as seismic data, wells log data and lithology were acquired and processed. Digital Elevation Model (DEM was constructed from the selected horizon as a result of seismic interpretation using the Petrel software. Furthermore, DEM was processed in ArcGIS as a base map to shown hydrocarbon migration in north-east Malay Basin. Finally, all the data layers were overlaid to produce a map of hydrocarbon migration. A good data was imported to verify the model is correct.
Gasda, Sarah E.
Long-term stabilization of injected carbon dioxide (CO 2) is an essential component of risk management for geological carbon sequestration operations. However, migration and trapping phenomena are inherently complex, involving processes that act over multiple spatial and temporal scales. One example involves centimeter-scale density instabilities in the dissolved CO 2 region leading to large-scale convective mixing that can be a significant driver for CO 2 dissolution. Another example is the potentially important effect of capillary forces, in addition to buoyancy and viscous forces, on the evolution of mobile CO 2. Local capillary effects lead to a capillary transition zone, or capillary fringe, where both fluids are present in the mobile state. This small-scale effect may have a significant impact on large-scale plume migration as well as long-term residual and dissolution trapping. Computational models that can capture both large and small-scale effects are essential to predict the role of these processes on the long-term storage security of CO 2 sequestration operations. Conventional modeling tools are unable to resolve sufficiently all of these relevant processes when modeling CO 2 migration in large-scale geological systems. Herein, we present a vertically-integrated approach to CO 2 modeling that employs upscaled representations of these subgrid processes. We apply the model to the Johansen formation, a prospective site for sequestration of Norwegian CO 2 emissions, and explore the sensitivity of CO 2 migration and trapping to subscale physics. Model results show the relative importance of different physical processes in large-scale simulations. The ability of models such as this to capture the relevant physical processes at large spatial and temporal scales is important for prediction and analysis of CO 2 storage sites. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd.
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This data set contains sensitive biological resource data for endangered waterbirds and passerine birds, migratory shorebirds and waterfowl, gulls and terns,...
Lever, D.A.; Bradbury, M.H.; Hemingway, S.J.
Diffusion into the rock matrix is potentially an important retardation mechanism for nuclides leached from an underground radioactive waste repository in a fractured hard rock. Models of this diffusion process are discussed and incorporated into three-dimensional radionuclide migration models. Simple solutions to these models are derived for two regions: the region near to the repository where the nuclide is diffusing into effectively infinite rock, and that much further downstream where the concentrations in the rock and fractures are almost in equilibrium. These solutions are used to evaluate the possible impact on migration. It is shown that retardation factors in excess of 100 and reductions in the peak concentration at a given point on the flow path by three or four orders of magnitude are possibe for non-sorbed ions, which would otherwise be carried by the flow and not retarded at all. (author)
One of the major recommendations of the National Academy of Science to the USEPA, NMFS and USFWS was to utilize probabilistic methods when assessing the risks of pesticides to federally listed endangered and threatened species. The Terrestrial Investigation Model (TIM, version 3....
Fernandez, J.M.; Piault, E.; Macouillard, D.; Juncos, C.
In 1960 experiments were carried out on the transfer of 9 Sr between soil, grapes and wine. The experiments were conducted in situ on a piece of land limited by two control strips. The 9 Sr migration over the last 40 years was studied by performing radiological and physico-chemical characterizations of the soil on eight 70 cm deep cores. The vertical migration modeling of 9 Sr required the definition of a triple layer conceptual model integrating the rainwater infiltration at constant flux as the only external factor of influence. Afterwards the importance of a detailed soil characterization for modeling was discussed and satisfactory simulation of the 9 Sr vertical transport was obtained and showed a calculated migration rate of about 1.0 cm year -1 in full agreement with the in situ measured values. The discussion was regarding some of the key parameters such as granulometry, organic matter content (in the Van Genuchten parameter determination), Kd and the efficient rainwater infiltration. Besides the experimental data, simplifying assumptions in modeling such as water-soil redistribution calculation and factual discontinuities in conceptual model were examined
Pellegrni, D.; Windt, L. de; Lee, J.V.D.
The disposal of radioactive wastes in clayey formations may require the use of large amounts of concrete and cement as a barrier to minimize corrosion of steel containers and radionuclide migration and for supporting drifts and disposal vaults. In this context, reactive transport modeling of the interactions between cement or concrete and the argillaceous host rock aims at estimating the evolution in time of the containment properties of the multi-barriers system. The objectives of the paper are to demonstrate that integrating radionuclides migration in the modeling of strongly coupled geochemical processes of cement-clay stone interactions is feasible and that it represents an efficient way to assess the sensitivity and modification of the classical Kd and solubility parameters with respect to the chemical evolutions. Two types of modeling are considered in the paper: i): calculation of intrinsic solubility limits and Kd values backing up on the results of modeling of cement/clay stone interactions (radionuclides are assumed to be present over the whole domain at any time whatever the scenario), ii) full mechanistic modeling which explicitly introduces radionuclides in the calculation with ad hoc assumptions on radionuclide inventory, canister failure, migration pathway, etc. The reactive transport code HYTEC, based on the geochemical code CHESS, is used to simulate both the cement-clay stone interaction processes and the radionuclide migration in 1-D and 2-D configurations. Convective/dispersive and diffuse transport can be simulated for solutes and colloids. A wide range of processes such as aqueous chemistry, redox, dissolution/precipitation, surface complexation and ion exchange can be modeled at equilibrium or with kinetic control. In addition, HYTEC is strongly coupled, i.e. the hydrology (flow and diffusion) may change when mineral precipitation or dissolution changes the local porosity. (authors)
Valeriy Leonidovich Makarov
Full Text Available The article describes the process of labour migration from China to Russia and shows its modelling using the agent-based approach. This approach allows us to simulate an artificial society in a computer program taking into account the diversity of individuals under consideration, as well as to model a set of laws and rules of conduct that make up the institutional environment in which the members of this society live. A brief review and analysis of agent-based migration models presented in the foreign literature are given. The agent-based model of labour migration from China to Russia developed by the Central Economic Mathematical Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences simulates human behaviour close to reality, which is based on their internal purposes, determining the agents choice of territory as a place of residence. Therefore, at the development of the agents of the model and their behaviour algorithms, as well as the organization of the environment in which they exist and interact, the main characteristics of the population of two neighbouring countries and their demographic processes have been considered. Using the model, two experiments have been conducted. The purpose of the first of them was to assess the effect of depreciation of the rubble against the yuan on the overall indexes of labour migration, as well as its structure. In the second experiment, the procedure of the search of the information by agents for the migratory decision-making was changing. Namely, all generalizing information on the average salary by types of activity and skill level of employees, both in China and Russia, became available to all agents irrespective of their qualification level.
Pomara, Lars Y; Cooper, Robert J; Petit, Lisa J
We examined the importance of mixed-species flock abundance, individual bird home range size, foraging height, and foraging patch characteristics in predicting the propensity for five Neotropical passerine bird species (Slaty Antwren, Myrmotherula schisticolor; Golden-crowned Warbler, Basileuterus culicivorus; Slate-throated Redstart, Myioborus miniatus; Wilson's Warbler, Wilsonia pusilla; and Black-and-white Warbler, Mniotilta varia) to forage within flocks, rather than solitarily. We used study plots in primary mid-elevation forest and in shade coffee fields in western Panama. We expected that all species would spend as much time as possible flocking, but that the social and environmental factors listed above would limit compatibility between flock movements and individual bird movements, explaining variability in flocking propensity both within and among species. Flocking propensity was well predicted by home range size and flock abundance together, for four of the five species. While flock abundance was uniform across plots, home range sizes varied among species and plots, so that home range size appeared to be the principle factor limiting flocking propensity. Estimates of flock abundance were still required, however, for calculating flocking propensity values. Foraging height and patch characteristics slightly improved predictive ability for the remaining species, M. miniatus. In general, individual birds tended to join flocks whenever one was available inside their home range, regardless of a flock's specific location within the home range. Flocking propensities of individual species were lower in shade coffee fields than in forests, and probably vary across landscapes with variations in habitat. This variability affects the stability and species composition of flocks, and may affect survival rates of individual species.
Fu, Zhaohao; Hao, Lingxin
We analyze China's rural-urban migration and endogenous social network structures using agent-based modeling. The agents from census micro data are located in their rural origin with an empirical-estimated prior propensity to move. The population-scale social network is a hybrid one, combining observed family ties and locations of the origin with a parameter space calibrated from census, survey and aggregate data and sampled using a stepwise Latin Hypercube Sampling method. At monthly intervals, some agents migrate and these migratory acts change the social network by turning within-nonmigrant connections to between-migrant-nonmigrant connections, turning local connections to nonlocal connections, and adding among-migrant connections. In turn, the changing social network structure updates migratory propensities of those well-connected nonmigrants who become more likely to move. These two processes iterate over time. Using a core-periphery method developed from the k -core decomposition method, we identify and quantify the network structural changes and map these changes with the migration acceleration patterns. We conclude that network structural changes are essential for explaining migration acceleration observed in China during the 1995-2000 period.
FarIas, Ro; Vidal, Cs; Rapacioli, M; Flores, V
This paper introduces some basic elements for modelling the dynamics of cell migration activity over a bi-dimensional substratum. A square matrix, representing the substratum, is implemented in order to generate virtual cells with an initial random uniform distribution, with the ability to freely move within the matrix and to interact with each others by mean of adhesive forces. Two different conditions were examined: A) cells can freely move and after contacting with another cell they both completely inhibit their migration; B) cells that come into contact have the ability to rotate respect to each other without losing their contacts and retaining the ability to move together but at a slower rate, being the decrease in the rate of movement proportional to the number of contacting cells. The dynamics of the migration process in these two conditions was evaluated by recording the evolution of several parameters as a function of time. Minor modifications in some parameters (mobility, intensity of cell-cell and cell-substratum adhesiveness) significantly change the dynamics and the final result of the virtual migrating cells
Leng, Jody C; Harrison, T Kyle; Miller, Brett; Howard, Steven K; Conroy, Myles; Udani, Ankeet; Shum, Cynthia; Mariano, Edward R
An adductor canal catheter may facilitate early ambulation after total knee arthroplasty, but there is concern over preoperative placement since intraoperative migration of catheters may occur from surgical manipulation and result in ineffective analgesia. We hypothesized that catheter type and subcutaneous tunneling may influence tip migration for preoperatively inserted adductor canal catheters. In a male unembalmed human cadaver, 20 catheter insertion trials were divided randomly into one of four groups: flexible epidural catheter either tunneled or not tunneled; or rigid stimulating catheter either tunneled or not tunneled. Intraoperative patient manipulation was simulated by five range-of-motion exercises of the knee. Distance and length measurements were performed by a blinded regional anesthesiologist. Changes in catheter tip to nerve distance (p = 0.225) and length of catheter within the adductor canal (p = 0.467) were not different between the four groups. Two of five non-tunneled stimulating catheters (40 %) were dislodged compared to 0/5 in all other groups (p = 0.187). A cadaver model may be useful for assessing migration of regional anesthesia catheters; catheter type and subcutaneous tunneling may not affect migration of adductor canal catheters based on this preliminary study. However, future studies involving a larger sample size, actual patients, and other catheter types are warranted.
Fu, Zhaohao; Hao, Lingxin
We analyze China's rural-urban migration and endogenous social network structures using agent-based modeling. The agents from census micro data are located in their rural origin with an empirical-estimated prior propensity to move. The population-scale social network is a hybrid one, combining observed family ties and locations of the origin with a parameter space calibrated from census, survey and aggregate data and sampled using a stepwise Latin Hypercube Sampling method. At monthly intervals, some agents migrate and these migratory acts change the social network by turning within-nonmigrant connections to between-migrant-nonmigrant connections, turning local connections to nonlocal connections, and adding among-migrant connections. In turn, the changing social network structure updates migratory propensities of those well-connected nonmigrants who become more likely to move. These two processes iterate over time. Using a core-periphery method developed from the k-core decomposition method, we identify and quantify the network structural changes and map these changes with the migration acceleration patterns. We conclude that network structural changes are essential for explaining migration acceleration observed in China during the 1995-2000 period.
Shi, Zi-xuan [Department of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Xijing Hospital, Fourth Military Medical University, Xi' an, 710032 (China); Rao, Wei [Department of Neurosurgery, Xijing Hospital, Fourth Military Medical University, Xi' an, 710032 (China); Wang, Huan [Department of Dermatology, Tangdu Hospital, Fourth Military Medical University, Xi' an, 710032 (China); Wang, Nan-ding [Department of Cardiology, Xi' an Traditional Chinese Medicine Hospital, Xi' an, 710032 (China); Si, Jing-Wen; Zhao, Jiao; Li, Jun-chang [Department of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Xijing Hospital, Fourth Military Medical University, Xi' an, 710032 (China); Wang, Zong-ren, E-mail: email@example.com [Department of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Xijing Hospital, Fourth Military Medical University, Xi' an, 710032 (China)
Glioblastoma is the most common brain tumor and is characterized with robust invasion and migration potential resulting in poor prognosis. Previous investigations have demonstrated that modeled microgravity (MMG) could decline the cell proliferation and attenuate the metastasis potential in several cell lines. In this study, we studied the effects of MMG on the invasion and migration potentials of glioblastoma in human glioblastoma U87 cells. We found that MMG stimulation significantly attenuated the invasion and migration potentials, decreased thapsigargin (TG) induced store-operated calcium entry (SOCE) and downregulated the expression of Orai1 in U87 cells. Inhibition of SOCE by 2-APB or stromal interaction molecule 1 (STIM1) downregulation both mimicked the effects of MMG on the invasion and migration potentials in U87 cells. Furthermore, upregulation of Orai1 significantly weakened the effects of MMG on the invasion and migration potentials in U87 cells. Therefore, these findings indicated that MMG stimulation inhibited the invasion and migration potentials of U87 cells by downregulating the expression of Orai1 and sequentially decreasing the SOCE, suggesting that MMG might be a new potential therapeutic strategy in glioblastoma treatment in the future. - Highlights: • Modeled microgravity (MMG) suppressed migration and invasion in U87 cells. • MMG downregulated the SOCE and the expression of Orai1. • SOCE inhibition mimicked the effects of MMG on migration and invasion potentials. • Restoration of SOCE diminished the effects of MMG on migration and invasion.
Shi, Zi-xuan; Rao, Wei; Wang, Huan; Wang, Nan-ding; Si, Jing-Wen; Zhao, Jiao; Li, Jun-chang; Wang, Zong-ren
Glioblastoma is the most common brain tumor and is characterized with robust invasion and migration potential resulting in poor prognosis. Previous investigations have demonstrated that modeled microgravity (MMG) could decline the cell proliferation and attenuate the metastasis potential in several cell lines. In this study, we studied the effects of MMG on the invasion and migration potentials of glioblastoma in human glioblastoma U87 cells. We found that MMG stimulation significantly attenuated the invasion and migration potentials, decreased thapsigargin (TG) induced store-operated calcium entry (SOCE) and downregulated the expression of Orai1 in U87 cells. Inhibition of SOCE by 2-APB or stromal interaction molecule 1 (STIM1) downregulation both mimicked the effects of MMG on the invasion and migration potentials in U87 cells. Furthermore, upregulation of Orai1 significantly weakened the effects of MMG on the invasion and migration potentials in U87 cells. Therefore, these findings indicated that MMG stimulation inhibited the invasion and migration potentials of U87 cells by downregulating the expression of Orai1 and sequentially decreasing the SOCE, suggesting that MMG might be a new potential therapeutic strategy in glioblastoma treatment in the future. - Highlights: • Modeled microgravity (MMG) suppressed migration and invasion in U87 cells. • MMG downregulated the SOCE and the expression of Orai1. • SOCE inhibition mimicked the effects of MMG on migration and invasion potentials. • Restoration of SOCE diminished the effects of MMG on migration and invasion
Full Text Available We present a mathematical model that studies and simulates the interconnection between energetic and ecological aspects of bird migration. By comparing model predictions with experimental data, we show that it can be used to assess the impact of changing environmental conditions in breeding, wintering, and stop-over sites on migratory success. We relate in particular to the European white stork (Ciconia ciconia and its Eastern migration route and discuss questions concerning the timing, stopover, and feeding behavior en route. Opinions concerning the importance of resource availability and resource quality en route are divided. Whereas some studies have shown that storks gain weight in the wintering site, but almost do not feed en route, others stress the importance of the quality of stop-over locations. We address these questions and simulate the development of stork populations for changing environmental conditions. We demonstrate that resource availability and competition for breeding sites are crucial factors determining the timing of spring migration and the length of stop-over periods. Analyzing the robustness of migration strategies with respect to changing environmental conditions, we show that birds will shorten their stay in stop-over places of poor resource availability rather than prolonging it in the attempt to gain time for accumulating fat reserves.
Full Text Available Migration of radionuclide coming from nuclear power plant into the system of biological pondsand then into the water reservoir-cooler is considered in the article. The theme of the work ismodeling of radionuclide migration process in the system of biological ponds on the example of thePivdennoukrainska nuclear power plant using chamber models method. Typical water ecosystemconsisting of three chambers (chamber-water, chamber-biota and chamber-bed silt was the basistaken by the authors. Application of chamber models method allowed authors to develop thedynamic chamber model of radionuclide migration in nuclear power plant biological ponds. Thismodel allows to forecast values and dynamics of radioactive water pollution based on limitedecosystem monitoring data. Thus, parameters of radioactive capacity of nuclear power plantbiological ponds system and water reservoir-cooler were modeled by authors, the estimation andprognosis of radionuclide distribution and accumulation in the system of nuclear power plantbiological ponds were done. Authors also explain the roles of basin water, biomass and bed silt inradionuclide deposition
The progress of the work is reported under the headings: nuclide migration studies (nuclide-rock interactions; physico-chemical effects; field experiments; groundwater dating); mathematical modelling (calculation of steady groundwater flow using NAMMU; comparison of thermally and naturally driven flows near a radioactive waste repository; diffusion of radionuclides into a rock matrix; radionuclide migration). (U.K.)
Tompson, A.; Carle, S.F.; Smith, D.K.; Hudson, G.B.; Bruton, C.J.
Full text: The goal of this project is to improve our understanding of water and radionuclide migration in both saturated and unsaturated geologic media by coupling advanced simulation techniques, available characterization data, and radioanalytical measurements in the context of a remarkable field experiment. Between 1975 and 1991, groundwater was steadily pumped from a well adjacent to a 1965 underground test conducted in alluvium at the Nevada Test Site. The experiment was primarily conducted in order to elicit information on radionuclide migration through the saturated zone between the test and the well. The effluent was monitored. discharged to an unlined ditch, and allowed to infiltrate into the ground during flow towards a dry lake, about a kilometer away. The 16 years of pumping and infiltration created an unexpected second experiment in which the migration of the ditch effluent through the 200 meters of unsaturated media, back to the water table, could be studied. Pumping and effluent data are being utilized in conjunction with chemical measurements made in groundwater and a series of numerical models to better understand the movement of radionuclides in the system, both between the test and the well, and between the ditch and the water table. The release of radionuclides away from a testing area will be controlled by local groundwater flow rates, by their dissolution from solidified melt glass produced by the test, and by chemical sorption processes that retard their migration rates in chemically reactive geologic media. Only the more mobile and less reactive radionuclides (e.g.. tritium, 14 C, 36 Cl, 85 Kr, and 129 I) were measured in the well effluent. The movement of these radionuclides through the unsaturated media beneath the ditch will be affected additionally by the capillary nature of moisture movement under unsaturated conditions and by their interaction with and potential mass exchange with the gas (air) phase. Results of numerical simulations
Bruner, Adam; Hernandez, Sam; Mauger, Francois; Abanador, Paul; Gaarde, Mette; Schafer, Ken; Lopata, Ken
Modeling attosecond coherent charge migration in molecules is important for understanding initial steps of photochemistry and light harvesting processes. Ionization triggered hole migration can be difficult to characterize and interpret as the dynamics can be convoluted with excited states. Here, we introduce a real-time time-dependent density functional theory (RT-TDDFT) approach for modeling such dynamics from first principles. To isolate the specific hole dynamics from excited states, Fourier transform analysis and orbital occupations are used to provide a spatial hole representation in the frequency domain. These techniques are applied to hole transfer across a thiophene dimer as well as core-hole triggered valence motion in nitrosobenzene. This work was supported by U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science, Office of Basic Energy Sciences, under Award No. DE-SC0012462.
Price, Nicholas; Chaudhry, Qasim
This study derived toxicity estimates for a set of 136 chemical migrants from food packaging materials using in silico (computational) modelling and read across approaches. Where available, the predicted results for mutagenicity and carcinogenicity were compared with published experimental data. As the packaging compounds are subject to safety assessment, the migrating substances were more likely to be negative for both the endpoints. A set of structural analogues with positive experimental data for carcinogenicity and/or mutagenicity was therefore used as a positive comparator. The results showed that a weight of evidence assembled from different in silico models and read-across from already-tested structurally similar compounds can provide a rapid and reliable means for rapid screening of new yet-untested intentional or unintentional chemical compounds that may migrate to packaged foodstuffs. Crown Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
A new technique to study the migration of souble waste components in soils, based on the application of centrifugue modelling and of selected short-lived radiotracers, is presented. The technique is based on the acceleration of the migration proceses of a specific tracer in a soil model, with simple and well-established scaling laws being used to interpret the results. The use of radiotracers allows geat flexibility and the adoption of a wide range of concentrations. Demosntrations of the technique have been carried out with two elements of radically distinct behaviour: iodine noted for its mobility in soils, and thallium, which tends to be strongly sorbed. Two different soil types have been used. The results semed to confirm what is known about the behaviour of both elements, so that the feasibility of the technique for such studies has been concluded. (author). 7 refs, 4 figs, 1 tab
Mohammed Y. Shobrak
Full Text Available Emergence and distribution of multi-drug resistant (MDR bacteria in environments pose a risk to human and animal health. A total of 82 isolates of Escherichia spp. were recovered from cloacal swabs of migrating and non-migrating wild birds. All bacterial isolates were identified and characterized morphologically and biochemically. 72% and 50% of isolates recovered from non-migrating and migrating birds, respectively, showed positive congo red dye binding (a virulence factor. Also, hemolysin production (a virulence factor was showed in 8% of isolates recovered from non-migrating birds and 75% of isolates recovered from migrating birds. All isolates recovered from non-migrating birds were found resistant to Oxacillin while all isolates recovered from migrating birds demonstrated resistance to Oxacillin, Chloramphenicol, Oxytetracycline and Lincomycin. Some bacterial isolates recovered from non-migrating birds and migrating birds exhibited MDR phenotype. The MDR isolates were further characterized by API 20E and 16S rRNA as E. coli and E. vulneris. MDR Escherichia isolates contain ~1-5 plasmids of high-molecular weights. Accordingly, wild birds could create a potential threat to human and animal health by transmitting MDR bacteria to water streams and other environmental sources through their faecal residues, and to remote regions by migration.
Shobrak, Mohammed Y.; Abo-Amer, Aly E.
Emergence and distribution of multi-drug resistant (MDR) bacteria in environments pose a risk to human and animal health. A total of 82 isolates of Escherichia spp. were recovered from cloacal swabs of migrating and non-migrating wild birds. All bacterial isolates were identified and characterized morphologically and biochemically. 72% and 50% of isolates recovered from non-migrating and migrating birds, respectively, showed positive congo red dye binding (a virulence factor). Also, hemolysin production (a virulence factor) was showed in 8% of isolates recovered from non-migrating birds and 75% of isolates recovered from migrating birds. All isolates recovered from non-migrating birds were found resistant to Oxacillin while all isolates recovered from migrating birds demonstrated resistance to Oxacillin, Chloramphenicol, Oxytetracycline and Lincomycin. Some bacterial isolates recovered from non-migrating birds and migrating birds exhibited MDR phenotype. The MDR isolates were further characterized by API 20E and 16S rRNA as E. coli and E. vulneris. MDR Escherichia isolates contain ~1–5 plasmids of high-molecular weights. Accordingly, wild birds could create a potential threat to human and animal health by transmitting MDR bacteria to water streams and other environmental sources through their faecal residues, and to remote regions by migration. PMID:25763023
Nicola D. Coniglio
This paper aims to analyse the effect of deepening regional integration on the incentive for factors of production, in particular labour, to spatially relocate. We adopt a general equilibrium, economic-geography model built on Krugman (1991) allowing for skill heterogeneity in the manufacturing sector. At a given level of trade costs, due to the productivity premium associated with the concentration of high-skilled workers in one region, this type of worker will be more willing to migrate tha...
Full Text Available The presented article is dealing with the new methods which are designated for data collection of mammals migrating across traffic networks. Nowadays, road construction and securing of older roads is usually accompanied by finding new solutions. Because of lack of collected data we have new opportunities how we can collect this input. The article below describes the most efficient method which is suitable for the model creation, process of creation and issues which are connected with the creation of simulations.
Nuclide migration of the high-level waste (HLW) repository in the near-and far-field as well as a transport through a biosphere under reference scenario has been modeled by utilizing GoldSim. The concept design of engineered barrier system (EBS), geosphere and biosphere characteristics are derived from H12 in Japan. The calculated results are consistent with H12 report, which can be considered as technical basis for the safety assessment of China HLW disposal. (authors)
Prasad, P.S.; Dutta, B.K.; Sinha, R.K.; Kushwaha, H.S.; Mahajan, S.C.; Kakodkar, A.
The formation of a cold spot in pressure tube due to its contact with calandria tube of PHWR coolant results in the migration of Hydrogen in pressure tube towards contact zone from its surrounding material. A 3-D finite element code SPARSH is developed to model the hydrogen redistribution and consequent hydride blister formation due to thermal and Hydrogen concentration gradients. In the present paper, the details and performance of this code are presented. (author). 6 refs., 2 figs
O'Dell, Stephen L.; Swartz, Douglas A.; Tice, Neil W.; Plucinsky, Paul P.; Grant, Catherine E.; Marshall, Herman L.; Vikhlinin, Alexey A.; Tennant, Allyn F.
During its first 14 years of operation, the cold (about -60C) optical blocking filter of the Advanced CCD Imaging Spectrometer (ACIS), aboard the Chandra X-ray Observatory, has accumulated a growing layer of molecular contamination that attenuates low-energy x rays. Over the past few years, the accumulation rate, spatial distribution, and composition have changed. This evolution has motivated further analysis of contamination migration within and near the ACIS cavity. To this end, the current study employs a higher-fidelity geometric model of the ACIS cavity, detailed thermal modeling based upon temperature data, and a refined model of the molecular transport.
Torres Berdeguez, M. B.; Gil Castillo, R.; Peralta Vidal, J.L.
An sensibility analysis it was applied two models, the first one, a model compressible for the near field (I finish source) The second, a simple model gives migration and transport radionuclides in the geosphere. The study was developed varying the securities ed simultaneously at the same time each parameter and observing the results in changes in the output and input. The intention in analysis it is to determine the parameter that but it influences in the variation the concentration. The statistical technique Regression it was employee in the study. This statistical method is used to analyze the dependence between a dependent variable and an or but independent variables
Mandel, J T; Bildstein, K L; Bohrer, G; Winkler, D W
We develop individual-based movement ecology models (MEM) to explore turkey vulture (Cathartes aura) migration decisions at both hourly and daily scales. Vulture movements in 10 migration events were recorded with satellite-reporting GPS sensors, and flight behavior was observed visually, aided by on-the-ground VHF radio-tracking. We used the North American Regional Reanalysis dataset to obtain values for wind speed, turbulent kinetic energy (TKE), and cloud height and used a digital elevation model for a measure of terrain ruggedness. A turkey vulture fitted with a heart-rate logger during 124 h of flight during 38 contiguous days showed only a small increase in mean heart rate as distance traveled per day increased, which suggests that, unlike flapping, soaring flight does not lead to greatly increased metabolic costs. Data from 10 migrations for 724 hourly segments and 152 daily segments showed that vultures depended heavily upon high levels of TKE in the atmospheric boundary layer to increase flight distances and maintain preferred bearings at both hourly and daily scales. We suggest how the MEM can be extended to other spatial and temporal scales of avian migration. Our success in relating model-derived atmospheric variables to migration indicates the potential of using regional reanalysis data, as here, and potentially other regional, higher-resolution, atmospheric models in predicting changing movement patterns of soaring birds under various scenarios of climate and land use change.
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This data set contains sensitive biological resource data for wading birds, shorebirds, waterfowl, diving birds, seabirds, passerine birds, gulls, and terns in...
Humm, J.; Robinson, P.; Clark, K.
To assess the performance of a waste repository, it is necessary to be able to predict the rates of gas generation and to understand and evaluate both the way the gas may disperse from the repository and any effects that might be associated with this dispersal. This document describes the modelling work carried out by QuantiSci on behalf of the UK Environment Agency, in conjunction with the CEC PROGRESS Project (Research into Gas Generation and Migration in Radioactive Waste Repository Systems) which has been carried out as part of the European Commission's IV th framework R and D programme. The project was under the PEGASUS (Projects on the Effects of GAS in Underground Storage facilities) umbrella. A review is provided of alternative conceptual models for the migration of gas through an initially water saturated fracture. A range of front or interface tracking methods for computing gas migration through a fracture is described: direct discretisation, marker particle, volume of fluids and level set methods. Volume of fluids methods are identified as the most appropriate approach for models of this sort. Subsequently, a description is given of the development of a model of gas injection into a single fracture in a portion of Borrowdale Volcanic Granite. The theoretical approach for the model is described in detail and the model compared to experimental results obtained for the real fracture. The experimental results of the CEC PROGRESS Project (obtained using Positron Emission Tomography) do not show particularly good agreement with the model results. However, there are strong indications that this is largely the result of uncertainties in the interpretation of the PET results. The experimental results are acknowledged to be extremely hard to interpret and the apparent negative gas thicknesses observed experimentally confirm this fact. Given the clearly critical dependence of the gas migration pathways on the aperture distribution, any discrepancies of this sort
Chen, Jiao; Weihs, Daphne; Vermolen, Fred J
Cell migration, known as an orchestrated movement of cells, is crucially important for wound healing, tumor growth, immune response as well as other biomedical processes. This paper presents a cell-based model to describe cell migration in non-isotropic fibrin networks around pancreatic tumor islets. This migration is determined by the mechanical strain energy density as well as cytokines-driven chemotaxis. Cell displacement is modeled by solving a large system of ordinary stochastic differential equations where the stochastic parts result from random walk. The stochastic differential equations are solved by the use of the classical Euler-Maruyama method. In this paper, the influence of anisotropic stromal extracellular matrix in pancreatic tumor islets on T-lymphocytes migration in different immune systems is investigated. As a result, tumor peripheral stromal extracellular matrix impedes the immune response of T-lymphocytes through changing direction of their migration.
Full Text Available European agriculture is undergoing widespread changes that are likely to have profound impacts on farmland biodiversity. The development of tools that allow an assessment of the potential biodiversity effects of different land-use alternatives before changes occur is fundamental to guiding management decisions. In this study, we develop a resource-based model framework to estimate habitat suitability for target species, according to simple information on species' key resource requirements (diet, foraging habitat and nesting site, and examine whether it can be used to link land-use and local species' distribution. We take as a study case four steppe bird species in a lowland area of the north-eastern Iberian Peninsula. We also compare the performance of our resource-based approach to that obtained through habitat-based models relating species' occurrence and land-cover variables. Further, we use our resource-based approach to predict the effects that change in farming systems can have on farmland bird habitat suitability and compare these predictions with those obtained using the habitat-based models. Habitat suitability estimates generated by our resource-based models performed similarly (and better for one study species than habitat based-models when predicting current species distribution. Moderate prediction success was achieved for three out of four species considered by resource-based models and for two of four by habitat-based models. Although, there is potential for improving the performance of resource-based models, they provide a structure for using available knowledge of the functional links between agricultural practices, provision of key resources and the response of organisms to predict potential effects of changing land-uses in a variety of context or the impacts of changes such as altered management practices that are not easily incorporated into habitat-based models.
Rutqvist, Jonny; Blanco Martin, Laura; Mukhopadhyay, Sumit; Houseworth, Jim; Birkholzer, Jens
In this report, we present FY2014 progress by Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) related to modeling of coupled thermal-hydrological-mechanical-chemical (THMC) processes in salt and their effect on brine migration at high temperatures. LBNL’s work on the modeling of coupled THMC processes in salt was initiated in FY2012, focusing on exploring and demonstrating the capabilities of an existing LBNL modeling tool (TOUGH-FLAC) for simulating temperature-driven coupled flow and geomechanical processes in salt. This work includes development related to, and implementation of, essential capabilities, as well as testing the model against relevant information and published experimental data related to the fate and transport of water. we provide more details on the FY2014 work, first presenting updated tools and improvements made to the TOUGH-FLAC simulator, and the use of this updated tool in a new model simulation of long-term THM behavior within a generic repository in a salt formation. This is followed by the description of current benchmarking and validations efforts, including the TSDE experiment. We then present the current status in the development of constitutive relationships and the dual-continuum model for brine migration. We conclude with an outlook for FY2015, which will be much focused on model validation against field experiments and on the use of the model for the design studies related to a proposed heater experiment.
Washburn, J.F.; Kaszeta, F.E.; Simmons, C.S.; Cole, C.R.
This report presents the results of the development of a one-dimensional radionuclide transport code, MMT2D (Multicomponent Mass Transport), for the AEGIS Program. Multicomponent Mass Transport is a numerical solution technique that uses the discrete-parcel-random-wald (DPRW) method to directly simulate the migration of radionuclides. MMT1D accounts for: convection;dispersion; sorption-desorption; first-order radioactive decay; and n-membered radioactive decay chains. Comparisons between MMT1D and an analytical solution for a similar problem show that: MMT1D agrees very closely with the analytical solution; MMT1D has no cumulative numerical dispersion like that associated with solution techniques such as finite differences and finite elements; for current AEGIS applications, relatively few parcels are required to produce adequate results; and the power of MMT1D is the flexibility of the code in being able to handle complex problems for which analytical solution cannot be obtained. Multicomponent Mass Transport (MMT1D) codes were developed at Pacific Northwest Laboratory to predict the movement of radiocontaminants in the saturated and unsaturated sediments of the Hanford Site. All MMT models require ground-water flow patterns that have been previously generated by a hydrologic model. This report documents the computer code and operating procedures of a third generation of the MMT series: the MMT differs from previous versions by simulating the mass transport processes in systems with radionuclide decay chains. Although MMT is a one-dimensional code, the user is referred to the documentation of the theoretical and numerical procedures of the three-dimensional MMT-DPRW code for discussion of expediency, verification, and error-sensitivity analysis
Travin, D Y; Feniouk, B A
Rodents are the most commonly used model organisms in studies of aging in vertebrates. However, there are species that may suit this role much better. Most birds (Aves), having higher rate of metabolism, live two-to-three times longer than mammals of the same size. This mini-review briefly covers several evolutionary, ecological, and physiological aspects that may contribute to the phenomenon of birds' longevity. The role of different molecular mechanisms known to take part in the process of aging according to various existing theories, e.g. telomere shortening, protection against reactive oxygen species, and formation of advanced glycation end-products is discussed. We also address some features of birds' aging that make this group unique and perspective model organisms in longevity studies.
Van Bael, Sunshine A; Philpott, Stacy M; Greenberg, Russell; Bichier, Peter; Barber, Nicholas A; Mooney, Kailen A; Gruner, Daniel S
Insectivorous birds reduce arthropod abundances and their damage to plants in some, but not all, studies where predation by birds has been assessed. The variation in bird effects may be due to characteristics such as plant productivity or quality, habitat complexity, and/or species diversity of predator and prey assemblages. Since agroforestry systems vary in such characteristics, these systems provide a good starting point for understanding when and where we can expect predation by birds to be important. We analyze data from bird exclosure studies in forests and agroforestry systems to ask whether birds consistently reduce their arthropod prey base and whether bird predation differs between forests and agroforestry systems. Further, we focus on agroforestry systems to ask whether the magnitude of bird predation (1) differs between canopy trees and understory plants, (2) differs when migratory birds are present or absent, and (3) correlates with bird abundance and diversity. We found that, across all studies, birds reduce all arthropods, herbivores, carnivores, and plant damage. We observed no difference in the magnitude of bird effects between agroforestry systems and forests despite simplified habitat structure and plant diversity in agroforests. Within agroforestry systems, bird reduction of arthropods was greater in the canopy than the crop layer. Top-down effects of bird predation were especially strong during censuses when migratory birds were present in agroforestry systems. Importantly, the diversity of the predator assemblage correlated with the magnitude of predator effects; where the diversity of birds, especially migratory birds, was greater, birds reduced arthropod densities to a greater extent. We outline potential mechanisms for relationships between bird predator, insect prey, and habitat characteristics, and we suggest future studies using tropical agroforests as a model system to further test these areas of ecological theory.
Worgan, K.; Impey, M.; Volckaert, G.; DePreter, P.
In response to concerns over the possibility of hydrogen gas generation within an underground repository for high-level radioactive waste, and its implications for repository safety, a joint European research study (MEGAS) is underway. Its aims are to understand and characterize the behavior of gas migration within an argillacious, host-rock. Laboratory experiments are being carried out by SCK/CEN, BGS and ISMES. SCK/CEN are also conducting in situ experiments at the underground laboratory at Mol, Belgium. Modeling of gas migration is being done in parallel with the experiments, by Intera Information Technologies. A two-phase flow code, TOPAZ, has been developed specifically for this work. In this paper the authors report on the results of some preliminary calculations performed with TOPAZ, in advance of the in situ experiments
Smith, A.; Ward, A.; Geldenhuis, S.
Over the past fifteen years, prodigious efforts and significant advances have been made in methods of prediction of the migration rate of dissolved species in aqueous systems. Despite such work, there remain formidable obstacles in prediction of solute transport in the unsaturated zone over the long time periods necessarily related to the radionuclide bearing wastes. The objective of this paper is to consider the methods, issues and problems with the use of predictive solute transport models for radionuclide migration from nuclear waste disposal in arid environments, if and when engineering containment of the waste fails. Having considered the ability for long term solute prediction for a number of geological environments, the advantages of a disposal environment in which the solute transport process is diffusion controlled will be described
Monte, Luigi; Boyer, Patrick; Brittain, John E.; Haakanson, Lars; Lepicard, Samuel; Smith, Jim T.
The present paper summarises the results of the review and assessment of state-of-the-art models developed for predicting the migration of radionuclides through rivers. The different approaches of the models to predict the behaviour of radionuclides in lotic ecosystems are presented and compared. The models were classified and evaluated according to their main methodological approaches. The results of an exercise of model application to specific contamination scenarios aimed at assessing and comparing the model performances were described. A critical evaluation and analysis of the uncertainty of the models was carried out. The main factors influencing the inherent uncertainty of the models, such as the incompleteness of the actual knowledge and the intrinsic environmental and biological variability of the processes controlling the behaviour of radionuclides in rivers, are analysed
Matsunaga, Takeshi; Tsuduki, Katsunori; Yanase, Nobuyuki; Hanzawa, Yukiko; Ueno, Takashi
Concerning radionuclides that might be released in an event of an accident from a nuclear facility, much attention has been paid to the migration pathways including the atmospheric deposition and subsequent inflow to surface water bodies since the Chernobyl nuclear accident in 1986. In European countries, computer-coded systems for predicting the migration including those pathways and providing scientific supports for decision makers to manage the contamination have been developed. This report is a summary of presentations and discussion made at the occasion of the visit of Dr. Monte in order to have directions related to the current subject of research, development of a mathematical model of the behavior of radionuclides in a river watershed. Those presentations and discussions were made at JAERI and also at prominent universities and institutes of Japan involved in this study field. As a result of these discussions, distinct advantages and key issues in use of a mathematical model for prediction of the migration of radionuclides in a river watershed have been identified and analyzed. It was confirmed that the use of mathematical modeling has distinct advantages. Re-arrangement of the existing experimental knowledge on the environment in an ordered way according to a theory (a mathematical model) will lead to a new angle to consider a problem in that environment, despite several gaps in the data array. A model to assess the radionuclide behaviour in contaminated aquatic ecosystems is a basis of decision analysis tools for helping decision-makers to select the most appropriate intervention strategies for the ecosystems. Practical use of a mathematical model and continuous effort in its validation were recognized as crucial. (author)
Larin, V.K.; Zubkov, A.A.; Balakhonov, V.G.; Sukhorukov, V.A.; Zhiganov, A.N.; Noskov, M.D.; Istomin, A.D.; Kesler, A.G.
Mathematical model of radionuclide migration and temperature field dynamics during underground disposal of liquid radioactive wastes is presented. The model involves the description of filtration, convective-dispersion mass transfer, sorption and desorption of radionuclides, radioactive decay, convective heat transport and hear transfer. Software making possible to conduct prognosis calculations of changing state of stratum-collector of radioactive wastes was made. Results of the simulation of temperature field dynamics and behaviour of radionuclides on underground disposal of liquid radioactive wastes of the Siberian chemical plant are performed [ru
Pickle, R. C.; Forsyth, D. W.; Saal, A. E.; Nagle, A. N.; Perfit, M. R.
Incompatible trace element (ITE) ratios in MORB from a variety of locations may provide insights into the melt migration process by constraining aggregated melt compositions predicted by mantle melting and flow models. By using actual plate geometries to create a 3-D thermodynamic mantle model, melt volumes and compositions at all depths and locations may be calculated and binned into cubes using the pHMELTS algorithm [Asimow et al., 2004]. These melts can be traced from each cube to the surface assuming several migration models, including a simplified pressure gradient model and one in which melt is guided upwards by a low permeability compacted layer. The ITE ratios of all melts arriving at the surface are summed, averaged, and compared to those of the actual sample compositions from the various MOR locales. The Siqueiros fracture zone at 8° 20' N on the East Pacific Rise (EPR) comprises 4 intra-transform spreading centers (ITSCs) across 140 km of offset between two longer spreading ridges, and is an excellent study region for several reasons. First, an abundance of MORB data is readily available, and the samples retrieved from ITSCs are unlikely to be aggregated in a long-lived magma chamber or affected by along-axis transport, so they represent melts extracted locally from the mantle. Additionally, samples at Siqueiros span a compositional range from depleted to normal MORB within the fracture zone yet have similar isotopic compositions to samples collected from the 9-10° EPR. This minimizes the effect of assuming a uniform source composition in our melting model despite a heterogeneous mantle, allowing us to consistently compare the actual lava composition with that predicted by our model. Finally, it has been demonstrated with preliminary migration models that incipient melts generated directly below an ITSC may not necessarily erupt at that ITSC but migrate laterally towards a nearby ridge due to enhanced pressure gradients. The close proximity of the
Coster, D.P.; Bonnin, X.; Chankin, A.
The complexity of the tokamak edge and scrape-off layer (SOL) region is such that extrapolation to ITER requires modelling to be pursued through the integration of a number of edge codes, each of which must be thoroughly tested against results from present day machines. This contribution demonstrates how the edge modelling effort at JET is focused on such an approach by considering two examples, target power loading and material erosion and migration, the understanding of which are crucial issues for ITER. (author)
Carvalho-Paulo, Dario; de Morais Magalhães, Nara G; de Almeida Miranda, Diego; Diniz, Daniel G; Henrique, Ediely P; Moraes, Isis A M; Pereira, Patrick D C; de Melo, Mauro A D; de Lima, Camila M; de Oliveira, Marcus A; Guerreiro-Diniz, Cristovam; Sherry, David F; Diniz, Cristovam W P
Seasonal migratory birds return to the same breeding and wintering grounds year after year, and migratory long-distance shorebirds are good examples of this. These tasks require learning and long-term spatial memory abilities that are integrated into a navigational system for repeatedly locating breeding, wintering, and stopover sites. Previous investigations focused on the neurobiological basis of hippocampal plasticity and numerical estimates of hippocampal neurogenesis in birds but only a few studies investigated potential contributions of glial cells to hippocampal-dependent tasks related to migration. Here we hypothesized that the astrocytes of migrating and wintering birds may exhibit significant morphological and numerical differences connected to the long-distance flight. We used as a model the semipalmated sandpiper Calidris pusilla , that migrates from northern Canada and Alaska to South America. Before the transatlantic non-stop long-distance component of their flight, the birds make a stopover at the Bay of Fundy in Canada. To test our hypothesis, we estimated total numbers and compared the three-dimensional (3-D) morphological features of adult C. pusilla astrocytes captured in the Bay of Fundy ( n = 249 cells) with those from birds captured in the coastal region of Bragança, Brazil, during the wintering period ( n = 250 cells). Optical fractionator was used to estimate the number of astrocytes and for 3-D reconstructions we used hierarchical cluster analysis. Both morphological phenotypes showed reduced morphological complexity after the long-distance non-stop flight, but the reduction in complexity was much greater in Type I than in Type II astrocytes. Coherently, we also found a significant reduction in the total number of astrocytes after the transatlantic flight. Taken together these findings suggest that the long-distance non-stop flight altered significantly the astrocytes population and that morphologically distinct astrocytes may play
Full Text Available Seasonal migratory birds return to the same breeding and wintering grounds year after year, and migratory long-distance shorebirds are good examples of this. These tasks require learning and long-term spatial memory abilities that are integrated into a navigational system for repeatedly locating breeding, wintering, and stopover sites. Previous investigations focused on the neurobiological basis of hippocampal plasticity and numerical estimates of hippocampal neurogenesis in birds but only a few studies investigated potential contributions of glial cells to hippocampal-dependent tasks related to migration. Here we hypothesized that the astrocytes of migrating and wintering birds may exhibit significant morphological and numerical differences connected to the long-distance flight. We used as a model the semipalmated sandpiper Calidris pusilla, that migrates from northern Canada and Alaska to South America. Before the transatlantic non-stop long-distance component of their flight, the birds make a stopover at the Bay of Fundy in Canada. To test our hypothesis, we estimated total numbers and compared the three-dimensional (3-D morphological features of adult C. pusilla astrocytes captured in the Bay of Fundy (n = 249 cells with those from birds captured in the coastal region of Bragança, Brazil, during the wintering period (n = 250 cells. Optical fractionator was used to estimate the number of astrocytes and for 3-D reconstructions we used hierarchical cluster analysis. Both morphological phenotypes showed reduced morphological complexity after the long-distance non-stop flight, but the reduction in complexity was much greater in Type I than in Type II astrocytes. Coherently, we also found a significant reduction in the total number of astrocytes after the transatlantic flight. Taken together these findings suggest that the long-distance non-stop flight altered significantly the astrocytes population and that morphologically distinct astrocytes
Brunet, R. [Genivar SEC, Sherbrooke, PQ (Canada)
This PowerPoint presentation described some of the inventories and instrumentation available for monitoring winged fauna in and around wind farms. In addition to visual observations, bird calls and songs can be recorded to determine the amount and different types of birds located at wind farm sites. Radio-telemetry devices are also used to evaluate bird activities, and nest searches are conducted to determine the amount of eggs or young birds that will soon add to the bird population. Between 90 and 100 percent of birds and bats migrate at night. Acoustic radar, Doppler radar, and maritime surveillance radar instruments are used to monitor night-time activities in wind farm locations. Doppler radar is also used to detect bird and bat migration corridors. Screen-shots of various radar interfaces were presented. tabs., figs.
This chapter examines the changing nature of adult education in the age of transnational migration and proposes recognitive adult education as an inclusive model that acknowledges and affirms cultural difference and diversity as positive and desirable assets.
Ibáñez, Carlos; Popa-Lisseanu, Ana G.; Pastor-Beviá, David; García-Mudarra, Juan L.; Juste, Javier
Recently, several species of aerial-hawking bats have been found to prey on migrating songbirds, but details on this behaviour and its relevance for bird migration are still unclear. We sequenced avian DNA in feather-containing scats of the bird-feeding bat Nyctalus lasiopterus from Spain collected during bird migration seasons. We found very high prey diversity, with 31 bird species from eight families of Passeriformes, almost all of which were nocturnally flying sub-Saharan migrants. Moreov...
This thesis aims to explain the dynamics of interregional migration in Indonesia in the 2000-2010 period and to project migration dynamics up to 2035. Four empirical studies presented in this thesis are interregional migration flows in Indonesia, migration and its relation to macro factors,
Pfunt, Helena; Houben, Georg; Himmelsbach, Thomas
Gas production from shale formations by hydraulic fracturing has raised concerns about the effects on the quality of fresh groundwater. The migration of injected fracking fluids towards the surface was investigated in the North German Basin, based on the known standard lithology. This included cases with natural preferential pathways such as permeable fault zones and fracture networks. Conservative assumptions were applied in the simulation of flow and mass transport triggered by a high pressure boundary of up to 50 MPa excess pressure. The results show no significant fluid migration for a case with undisturbed cap rocks and a maximum of 41 m vertical transport within a permeable fault zone during the pressurization. Open fractures, if present, strongly control the flow field and migration; here vertical transport of fracking fluids reaches up to 200 m during hydraulic fracturing simulation. Long-term transport of the injected water was simulated for 300 years. The fracking fluid rises vertically within the fault zone up to 485 m due to buoyancy. Progressively, it is transported horizontally into sandstone layers, following the natural groundwater flow direction. In the long-term, the injected fluids are diluted to minor concentrations. Despite the presence of permeable pathways, the injected fracking fluids in the reported model did not reach near-surface aquifers, either during the hydraulic fracturing or in the long term. Therefore, the probability of impacts on shallow groundwater by the rise of fracking fluids from a deep shale-gas formation through the geological underground to the surface is small.
Tawara, Y.; Mori, K.; Tada, K.; Shimura, T.; Sato, S.; Yamamoto, S.; Hayashi, H.
Document available in extended abstract form only. After the field-scaled Gas Migration Test (GMT) was carried out at Grimsel Test Site (GTS) in Switzerland from 1997 through 2005, a study on advanced gas migration modelling has been conducted as a part of R and D programs of the RWMC (Radioactive Waste Management funding and Research Center) to evaluate long-term behaviour of the Engineered Barrier System (EBS) for the TRU waste disposal system in Japan. One of main objectives of this modelling study is to provide the qualified models and parameters in order to predict long-term gas migration behaviour in compacted bentonite. In addition, from a perspective of coupled THMC (Thermal, Hydrological, Mechanical and Chemical) processes, the specific processes which may have considerable impact to the gas migration behaviour are discussed by means of scoping calculations. Literature survey was conducted to collect experimental data related to gas migration in compacted bentonite in order to discuss an applicability of the existing gas migration models in the bentonite. The well-known flow rate controlled-gas injection experiment by Horseman, et al. and the pressure-controlled-gas injection test using several data with wide range of clay density and water content by Graham, et al, were selected. These literatures show the following characteristic behaviour of gas migration in high compacted and water-saturated bentonite. The observed gas flow rate from the outlet in the experiment by Horseman et al. was numerically reproduced by using the different conceptual models and computer codes, and then an applicability of the models and the identified key parameters such as relative permeability and capillary pressure were discussed. Helium gas was repeatedly injected into fully water-saturated and isotropically consolidated MX-80 bentonite (dry density: 1.6 Mg/m 3 ) in the experiment. One of the most important conclusions from this experiment is that it's impossible for
Reichl, Thomas; Andersen, Bent Bach; Larsen, Ole Næsbye
The function of migratory bird calls: do they influence orientation and navigation? Thomas Reichl1, Bent Bach Andersen2, Ole Naesbye Larsen2, Henrik Mouritsen1 1Institute of Biology, University of Oldenburg, Oldenburg, D-26111 Oldenburg, Germany 2Institute of Biology, University of Southern...... migration and to stimulate migratory restlessness in conspecifics. We wished to test if conspecific flight calls influence the flight direction of a nocturnal migrant, the European Robin (Erithacus rubecula), i.e. if flight calls help migrants keeping course. Wild caught birds showing migratory restlessness...... the experimental bird could be activated successively to simulate a migrating Robin cruising E-W, W-E, S-N or N-S at a chosen height (mostly about 40 m), at 10 m/s and emitting Robin flight calls of 80 dB(A) at 1 m. The simulated flight of a "ding" sound served as a control. During an experiment the bird was first...
the presence of large numbers of foreign workers not only to the countries employing them but to the Arab nation as a whole allows Iraq to criticize the migration policies of the Gulf oil exporters, which are increasingly favoring more productive labor from Asian countries and which cede much of the authority to select and admit workers to private concerns. The evolution of Iraq's policy demonstrates the concern of its governing party with reconciling its Arab identity and its analysis of international power relations with consolidation of its own position internally and in the Arab world as a whole. The labor policy of the oil exporters exposes their countries and thus the Arab world to the possibility of sabotage and to demographic overpowering of ethnic and cultural identity. Interpretations differ as to whether the Iraqi model has led to a better deployment of labor and as to its theoretical contribution to pan-Arab unity, given the diverging interests of the individual states concerned.
Liang, Lixin; Yu, Xiping
A mixture model for general description of sediment laden flows is developed and then applied to coastal sandbar migration simulation. Firstly the mixture model is derived based on the Eulerian-Eulerian approach of the complete two-phase flow theory. The basic equations of the model include the mass and momentum conservation equations for the water-sediment mixture and the continuity equation for sediment concentration. The turbulent motion of the mixture is formulated for the fluid and the particles respectively. A modified k-ɛ model is used to describe the fluid turbulence while an algebraic model is adopted for the particles. A general formulation for the relative velocity between the two phases in sediment laden flows, which is derived by manipulating the momentum equations of the enhanced two-phase flow model, is incorporated into the mixture model. A finite difference method based on SMAC scheme is utilized for numerical solutions. The model is validated by suspended sediment motion in steady open channel flows, both in equilibrium and non-equilibrium state, and in oscillatory flows as well. The computed sediment concentrations, horizontal velocity and turbulence kinetic energy of the mixture are all shown to be in good agreement with experimental data. The mixture model is then applied to the study of sediment suspension and sandbar migration in surf zones under a vertical 2D framework. The VOF method for the description of water-air free surface and topography reaction model is coupled. The bed load transport rate and suspended load entrainment rate are all decided by the sea bed shear stress, which is obtained from the boundary layer resolved mixture model. The simulation results indicated that, under small amplitude regular waves, erosion occurred on the sandbar slope against the wave propagation direction, while deposition dominated on the slope towards wave propagation, indicating an onshore migration tendency. The computation results also shows that
Susanne Eva Tanner
Full Text Available Connectivity is a critical property of marine fish populations as it drives population replenishment, determines colonization patterns and the resilience of populations to harvest. Understanding connectivity patterns is particularly important in species that present ontogenetic migrations and segregated habitat use during their life history, such as marine species with estuarine nursery areas. Albeit challenging, fish movement can be estimated and quantified using different methodologies depending on the life history stages of interest (e.g. biophysical modelling, otolith chemistry, genetic markers. Relative contributions from estuarine nursery areas to the adult coastal populations were determined using otolith elemental composition and maximum likelihood estimation for four commercially important species (Dicentrarchus labrax, Plathichtys flesus, Solea senegalensis and Solea solea and showed high interannual variability. Here, the effects of abiotic and biotic factors on the observed variability in connectivity rates and extent between estuarine juvenile and coastal adult subpopulations are investigated using generalized linear models (GLM and generalized mixed models (GMM. Abiotic factors impacting both larval and juvenile life history stages are included in the models (e.g. wind force and direction, NAO, water temperature while biotic factors relative to the estuarine residency of juvenile fish are evaluated (e.g. juvenile density, food availability. Factors contributing most to the observed variability in connectivity rates are singled out and compared among species. General trends are identified and results area discussed in the general context of identifying potential management frameworks applicable to different life stages and which may prove useful for ontogenetically migrating species.
Practically all models used today to describe radionuclide migration in geologic media are based on the concept of flow in porous media. Recently it has been questioned if Fickian dispersion is the most important dispersion mechanism. Field observations of dispersion indicate that the dispersion coefficient increases with observation distance. This should not be the case in a homogeneous porous medium. For a medium with essentially independent channels, on the other hand, such an effect can be predicted. In some calculated examples it is shown that the use of the Fickian dispersion mechanism will very seriously underestimate the radionuclide concentration at a point downstream if the spreading mechanism in reality is channelling. The consequences of the often-used assumption that the interaction between the radionuclides and the rock is instantaneous is also discussed. It has been shown that in sparsely fissured crystalline rock the whole rock mass will not be able to participate in the sorption reactions, because the radionuclides will not have time to penetrate all through the large blocks. On the other hand, the assumption that only the surface of the fissures interacts with the radionuclides is likely to be an extremely conservative assumption in view of some recent diffusion experiments in crystalline rocks performed in our laboratories and at the Canadian Geologic Survey. Some experimental results on radionuclide migration in a single natural fissure under well-controlled conditions in the laboratory are also presented and interpreted using a model which includes channelling, surface sorption, diffusion in the rock matrix and sorption in the rock matrix. Some implications of these mechanisms in predicting radionuclide migration in the geosphere are discussed and compared with what a porous-flow model would predict
Landini, S.; Uberti, M.; Casellina, S.
The last financial crisis of 2008 stimulated the development of new Regulatory Criteria (commonly known as Basel III) that pushed the banking activity to become more prudential, either in the short and the long run. As well known, in 2014 the International Accounting Standards Board (IASB) promulgated the new International Financial Reporting Standard 9 (IFRS 9) for financial instruments that will become effective in January 2018. Since the delayed recognition of credit losses on loans was identified as a weakness in existing accounting standards, the IASB has introduced an Expected Loss model that requires more timely recognition of credit losses. Specifically, new standards require entities to account both for expected losses from when the impairments are recognized for the first time and for full loan lifetime; moreover, a clear preference toward forward looking models is expressed. In this new framework, it is necessary a re-thinking of the widespread standard theoretical approach on which the well known prudential model is founded. The aim of this paper is then to define an original methodological approach to migration rates modeling for credit risk which is innovative respect to the standard method from the point of view of a bank as well as in a regulatory perspective. Accordingly, the proposed not-standard approach considers a portfolio as an open sample allowing for entries, migrations of stayers and exits as well. While being consistent with the empirical observations, this open-sample approach contrasts with the standard closed-sample method. In particular, this paper offers a methodology to integrate the outcomes of the standard closed-sample method within the open-sample perspective while removing some of the assumptions of the standard method. Three main conclusions can be drawn in terms of economic capital provision: (a) based on the Markovian hypothesis with a-priori absorbing state at default, the standard closed-sample method is to be abandoned
O'Dell, Stephen L.; Swartz, Douglas A.; Tice, Neil W.; Plucinsky, Paul P.; Grant, Catherine E.; Marshall, Herman L.; Vikhlinin, Alexy A.; Tennant, Allyn F.; Dahmer, Matthew T.
During its first 16 years of operation, the cold (about -60 C) optical blocking filter of the Advanced CCD Imaging Spectrometer (ACIS), aboard the Chandra X-ray Observatory, has accumulated a growing layer of molecular contamination that attenuates low-energy x rays. Over the past few years, the accumulation rate, spatial distribution, and composition have changed. This evolution has motivated further analysis of contamination migration within and near the ACIS cavity, in part to evaluate potential bake-out scenarios intended to reduce the level of contamination. Keywords: X-ray astronomy, CCDs, contamination, modeling and simulation, spacecraft operations
Garcia, E.; Gallego, E.; Jimenez, F.
The Model for Radionuclide Migration in Urban Environment and Drainage Systems aims to estimate the discharge of radioactivity removed by natural or forced decontamination into the receiving waters from the drainage system, as well as the radioactivity joined with the sludge produced in treatments plants, whose various applications can mean a potential hazard. This model, built in Powersim, is included in the MOIRA system, a project whose main aim is the evaluation of the situation after a radioactive contamination of the aquatic ecosystems and the estimation of optimal remedial strategies to restore the contaminated waters. Powersim is an easy-to-use software package which simulates dynamic processes. Two sub-models compose the global model: one, simulating the evolution of Cs-137 in urban areas, and the other, the behaviour of this radionuclide, once it ha entered the drainage systems, with the various existing alternatives of waste water treatment in Europe. (Author) 8 refs
Broyd, T.W.; McD Grant, M.; Cross, J.E.
This report describes two intercomparison studies of computer programs which respectively model: i) radionuclide migration ii) equilibrium chemistry of groundwaters. These studies have been performed by running a series of test cases with each program and comparing the various results obtained. The work forms a part of the CEC MIRAGE project (MIgration of RAdionuclides in the GEosphere) and has been jointly funded by the CEC and the United Kingdom Department of the Environment. Presentations of the material contained herein were given at plenary meetings of the MIRAGE project in Brussels in March, 1984 (migration) and March, 1985 (equilibrium chemistry) respectively
Swanson, David L; Thomas, Nathan E; Liknes, Eric T; Cooper, Sheldon J
The underlying assumption of the aerobic capacity model for the evolution of endothermy is that basal (BMR) and maximal aerobic metabolic rates are phenotypically linked. However, because BMR is largely a function of central organs whereas maximal metabolic output is largely a function of skeletal muscles, the mechanistic underpinnings for their linkage are not obvious. Interspecific studies in birds generally support a phenotypic correlation between BMR and maximal metabolic output. If the aerobic capacity model is valid, these phenotypic correlations should also extend to intraspecific comparisons. We measured BMR, M(sum) (maximum thermoregulatory metabolic rate) and MMR (maximum exercise metabolic rate in a hop-flutter chamber) in winter for dark-eyed juncos (Junco hyemalis), American goldfinches (Carduelis tristis; M(sum) and MMR only), and black-capped chickadees (Poecile atricapillus; BMR and M(sum) only) and examined correlations among these variables. We also measured BMR and M(sum) in individual house sparrows (Passer domesticus) in both summer, winter and spring. For both raw metabolic rates and residuals from allometric regressions, BMR was not significantly correlated with either M(sum) or MMR in juncos. Moreover, no significant correlation between M(sum) and MMR or their mass-independent residuals occurred for juncos or goldfinches. Raw BMR and M(sum) were significantly positively correlated for black-capped chickadees and house sparrows, but mass-independent residuals of BMR and M(sum) were not. These data suggest that central organ and exercise organ metabolic levels are not inextricably linked and that muscular capacities for exercise and shivering do not necessarily vary in tandem in individual birds. Why intraspecific and interspecific avian studies show differing results and the significance of these differences to the aerobic capacity model are unknown, and resolution of these questions will require additional studies of potential mechanistic
David L Swanson
Full Text Available The underlying assumption of the aerobic capacity model for the evolution of endothermy is that basal (BMR and maximal aerobic metabolic rates are phenotypically linked. However, because BMR is largely a function of central organs whereas maximal metabolic output is largely a function of skeletal muscles, the mechanistic underpinnings for their linkage are not obvious. Interspecific studies in birds generally support a phenotypic correlation between BMR and maximal metabolic output. If the aerobic capacity model is valid, these phenotypic correlations should also extend to intraspecific comparisons. We measured BMR, M(sum (maximum thermoregulatory metabolic rate and MMR (maximum exercise metabolic rate in a hop-flutter chamber in winter for dark-eyed juncos (Junco hyemalis, American goldfinches (Carduelis tristis; M(sum and MMR only, and black-capped chickadees (Poecile atricapillus; BMR and M(sum only and examined correlations among these variables. We also measured BMR and M(sum in individual house sparrows (Passer domesticus in both summer, winter and spring. For both raw metabolic rates and residuals from allometric regressions, BMR was not significantly correlated with either M(sum or MMR in juncos. Moreover, no significant correlation between M(sum and MMR or their mass-independent residuals occurred for juncos or goldfinches. Raw BMR and M(sum were significantly positively correlated for black-capped chickadees and house sparrows, but mass-independent residuals of BMR and M(sum were not. These data suggest that central organ and exercise organ metabolic levels are not inextricably linked and that muscular capacities for exercise and shivering do not necessarily vary in tandem in individual birds. Why intraspecific and interspecific avian studies show differing results and the significance of these differences to the aerobic capacity model are unknown, and resolution of these questions will require additional studies of potential
Ellis, D.H.; Sladen, William J. L.; Lishman, W.A.; Clegg, K.R.; Duff, J.W.; Gee, G.F.; Lewis, J.C.
In 15 experiments from 1993-2002, we led cranes, geese, or swans on their first southward migration with either ultralight aircraft or vehicles on the ground. These experiments reveal that large birds can be readily trained to follow and most will return north (and south) in subsequent migrations unassisted. These techniques can now be used to teach birds new (or forgotten) migration paths. Although we are constantly improving our training techniques, we now have an operational program that can be broadly applied to those species where juveniles learn migration routes from their parents.
Roig, Fernando [Observatòrio Nacional, Rua Gal. Jose Cristino 77, Rio de Janeiro, RJ 20921-400 (Brazil); Nesvorný, David, E-mail: firstname.lastname@example.org, E-mail: email@example.com [Southwest Research Institute, 1050 Walnut St., Suite 300, Boulder, CO 80302 (United States)
In this work, we investigate the evolution of a primordial belt of asteroids, represented by a large number of massless test particles, under the gravitational effect of migrating Jovian planets in the framework of the jumping-Jupiter model. We perform several simulations considering test particles distributed in the Main Belt, as well as in the Hilda and Trojan groups. The simulations start with Jupiter and Saturn locked in the mutual 3:2 mean motion resonance plus three Neptune-mass planets in a compact orbital configuration. Mutual planetary interactions during migration led one of the Neptunes to be ejected in less than 10 Myr of evolution, causing Jupiter to jump by about 0.3 AU in semimajor axis. This introduces a large-scale instability in the studied populations of small bodies. After the migration phase, the simulations are extended over 4 Gyr, and we compare the final orbital structure of the simulated test particles to the current Main Belt of asteroids with absolute magnitude H < 9.7. The results indicate that, in order to reproduce the present Main Belt, the primordial belt should have had a distribution peaked at ∼10° in inclination and at ∼0.1 in eccentricity. We discuss the implications of this for the Grand Tack model. The results also indicate that neither primordial Hildas, nor Trojans, survive the instability, confirming the idea that such populations must have been implanted from other sources. In particular, we address the possibility of implantation of Hildas and Trojans from the Main Belt population, but find that this contribution should be minor.
Drum, Ryan G.; Ribic, Christine; Koch, Katie; Lonsdorf, Eric V.; Grant, Edward C.; Ahlering, Marissa; Barnhill, Laurel; Dailey, Thomas; Lor, Socheata; Mueller, Connie; Pavlacky, D.C.; Rideout, Catherine; Sample, David W.
Grassland bird habitat has declined substantially in the United States. Remaining grasslands are increasingly fragmented, mostly privately owned, and vary greatly in terms of habitat quality and protection status. A coordinated strategic response for grassland bird conservation is difficult, largely due to the scope and complexity of the problem, further compounded by biological, sociological, and economic uncertainties. We describe the results from a collaborative Structured Decision Making (SDM) workshop focused on linking social and economic drivers of landscape change to grassland bird population outcomes. We identified and evaluated alternative strategies for grassland bird conservation using a series of rapid prototype models. We modeled change in grassland and agriculture cover in hypothetical landscapes resulting from different landowner decisions in response to alternative socio-economic conservation policy decisions. Resulting changes in land cover at all three stages of the annual cycle (breeding, wintering, and migration) were used to estimate changes in grassland bird populations. Our results suggest that successful grassland bird conservation may depend upon linkages with ecosystem services on working agricultural lands and grassland-based marketing campaigns to engage the public. With further development, spatial models that link landowner decisions with biological outcomes can be essential tools for making conservation policy decisions. A coordinated non-traditional partnership will likely be necessary to clearly understand and systematically respond to the many conservation challenges facing grassland birds.
Ryan G Drum
Full Text Available Grassland bird habitat has declined substantially in the United States. Remaining grasslands are increasingly fragmented, mostly privately owned, and vary greatly in terms of habitat quality and protection status. A coordinated strategic response for grassland bird conservation is difficult, largely due to the scope and complexity of the problem, further compounded by biological, sociological, and economic uncertainties. We describe the results from a collaborative Structured Decision Making (SDM workshop focused on linking social and economic drivers of landscape change to grassland bird population outcomes. We identified and evaluated alternative strategies for grassland bird conservation using a series of rapid prototype models. We modeled change in grassland and agriculture cover in hypothetical landscapes resulting from different landowner decisions in response to alternative socio-economic conservation policy decisions. Resulting changes in land cover at all three stages of the annual cycle (breeding, wintering, and migration were used to estimate changes in grassland bird populations. Our results suggest that successful grassland bird conservation may depend upon linkages with ecosystem services on working agricultural lands and grassland-based marketing campaigns to engage the public. With further development, spatial models that link landowner decisions with biological outcomes can be essential tools for making conservation policy decisions. A coordinated non-traditional partnership will likely be necessary to clearly understand and systematically respond to the many conservation challenges facing grassland birds.
Results in netCDF 11 4.3 Morphological Data Generation 16 5. 3DWF on Mobile Platforms 17 5.1 3DWF on Windows Mobile Devices 18 5.2 3DWF Migration to...Windows and Mobile Platforms by Giap Huynh and Yansen Wang Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. NOTICES...Migration of the Three-dimensional Wind Field (3DWF) Model from Linux to Windows and Mobile Platforms by Giap Huynh and Yansen Wang
O'Dell, Steve; Swartz, Doug; Tice, Neil; Plucinsky, Paul; Grant, Catherine; Marshall, Herman; Vikhlinin, Alexey
During its first 14 years of operation, the cold (about -60degC) optical blocking filter of the Advanced CCD Imaging Spectrometer (ACIS), aboard the Chandra X-ray Observatory, has accumulated a growing layer of molecular contamination that attenuates low-energy x rays. Over the past few years, the accumulation rate, spatial distribution, and composition may have changed, perhaps partially related to changes in the operating temperature of the ACIS housing. This evolution of the accumulation of the molecular contamination has motivated further analysis of contamination migration on the Chandra X-ray Observatory, particularly within and near the ACIS cavity. To this end, the current study employs a higher-fidelity geometric model of the ACIS cavity, detailed thermal modeling based upon monitored temperature data, and an accordingly refined model of the molecular transport.
Woolley, Thomas E.; Gaffney, Eamonn A.; Goriely, Alain
If the plasma membrane of a cell is able to delaminate locally from its actin cortex, a cellular bleb can be produced. Blebs are pressure-driven protrusions, which are noteworthy for their ability to produce cellular motion. Starting from a general continuum mechanics description, we restrict ourselves to considering cell and bleb shapes that maintain approximately spherical forms. From this assumption, we obtain a tractable algebraic system for bleb formation. By including cell-substrate adhesions, we can model blebbing cell motility. Further, by considering mechanically isolated blebbing events, which are randomly distributed over the cell, we can derive equations linking the macroscopic migration characteristics to the microscopic structural parameters of the cell. This multiscale modeling framework is then used to provide parameter estimates, which are in agreement with current experimental data. In summary, the construction of the mathematical model provides testable relationships between the bleb size and cell motility.
Woolley, Thomas E; Gaffney, Eamonn A; Goriely, Alain
If the plasma membrane of a cell is able to delaminate locally from its actin cortex, a cellular bleb can be produced. Blebs are pressure-driven protrusions, which are noteworthy for their ability to produce cellular motion. Starting from a general continuum mechanics description, we restrict ourselves to considering cell and bleb shapes that maintain approximately spherical forms. From this assumption, we obtain a tractable algebraic system for bleb formation. By including cell-substrate adhesions, we can model blebbing cell motility. Further, by considering mechanically isolated blebbing events, which are randomly distributed over the cell, we can derive equations linking the macroscopic migration characteristics to the microscopic structural parameters of the cell. This multiscale modeling framework is then used to provide parameter estimates, which are in agreement with current experimental data. In summary, the construction of the mathematical model provides testable relationships between the bleb size and cell motility.
Agnor, Craig B.; Lin, D. N. C.
We examine how the late divergent migration of Jupiter and Saturn may have perturbed the terrestrial planets. Using a modified secular model we have identified six secular resonances between the ν 5 frequency of Jupiter and Saturn and the four apsidal eigenfrequencies of the terrestrial planets (g 1-4 ). We derive analytic upper limits on the eccentricity and orbital migration timescale of Jupiter and Saturn when these resonances were encountered to avoid perturbing the eccentricities of the terrestrial planets to values larger than the observed ones. Because of the small amplitudes of the j = 2, 3 terrestrial eigenmodes the g 2 – ν 5 and g 3 – ν 5 resonances provide the strongest constraints on giant planet migration. If Jupiter and Saturn migrated with eccentricities comparable to their present-day values, smooth migration with exponential timescales characteristic of planetesimal-driven migration (τ ∼ 5-10 Myr) would have perturbed the eccentricities of the terrestrial planets to values greatly exceeding the observed ones. This excitation may be mitigated if the eccentricity of Jupiter was small during the migration epoch, migration was very rapid (e.g., τ ∼< 0.5 Myr perhaps via planet-planet scattering or instability-driven migration) or the observed small eccentricity amplitudes of the j = 2, 3 terrestrial modes result from low probability cancellation of several large amplitude contributions. Results of orbital integrations show that very short migration timescales (τ < 0.5 Myr), characteristic of instability-driven migration, may also perturb the terrestrial planets' eccentricities by amounts comparable to their observed values. We discuss the implications of these constraints for the relative timing of terrestrial planet formation, giant planet migration, and the origin of the so-called Late Heavy Bombardment of the Moon 3.9 ± 0.1 Ga ago. We suggest that the simplest way to satisfy these dynamical constraints may be for the bulk of any giant
Viana, Duarte S; Gangoso, Laura; Bouten, Willem; Figuerola, Jordi
Long-distance dispersal (LDD) promotes the colonization of isolated and remote habitats, and thus it has been proposed as a mechanism for explaining the distributions of many species. Birds are key LDD vectors for many sessile organisms such as plants, yet LDD beyond local and regional scales has never been directly observed nor quantified. By sampling birds caught while in migratory flight by GPS-tracked wild falcons, we show that migratory birds transport seeds over hundreds of kilometres and mediate dispersal from mainland to oceanic islands. Up to 1.2% of birds that reached a small island of the Canary Archipelago (Alegranza) during their migration from Europe to Sub-Saharan Africa carried seeds in their guts. The billions of birds making seasonal migrations each year may then transport millions of seeds. None of the plant species transported by the birds occurs in Alegranza and most do not occur on nearby Canary Islands, providing a direct example of the importance of environmental filters in hampering successful colonization by immigrant species. The constant propagule pressure generated by these LDD events might, nevertheless, explain the colonization of some islands. Hence, migratory birds can mediate rapid range expansion or shifts of many plant taxa and determine their distribution. © 2016 The Author(s).
Full Text Available Some progress has recently been made on migrating an existing distributed parallel discrete time simulator to a quantised discrete event architecture. The migration is done to increase the scale of the real-time simulations supported...
Ernstoff, Alexi S; Fantke, Peter; Huang, Lei
Specialty software and simplified models are often used to estimate migration of potentially toxic chemicals from packaging into food. Current models, however, are not suitable for emerging applications in decision-support tools, e.g. in Life Cycle Assessment and risk-based screening and prioriti...... to uncertainty and dramatically decreased model performance (R2 = 0.4, Se = 1). In all, this study provides a rapid migration modelling approach to estimate exposure to chemicals in food packaging for emerging screening and prioritization approaches....
... 9 Animals and Animal Products 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Certificate for pet birds, commercial birds, zoological birds, and research birds. 93.104 Section 93.104 Animals and Animal Products ANIMAL... (INCLUDING POULTRY) AND ANIMAL PRODUCTS IMPORTATION OF CERTAIN ANIMALS, BIRDS, FISH, AND POULTRY, AND CERTAIN...
Alber, Adrien; Piégay, Hervé
An increased awareness by river managers of the importance of river channel migration to sediment dynamics, habitat complexity and other ecosystem functions has led to an advance in the science and practice of identifying, protecting or restoring specific erodible corridors across which rivers are free to migrate. One current challenge is the application of these watershed-specific goals at the regional planning scales (e.g., the European Water Framework Directive). This study provides a GIS-based spatial analysis of the channel migration rates at the regional-scale. As a case study, 99 reaches were sampled in the French part of the Rhône Basin and nearby tributaries of the Mediterranean Sea (111,300 km 2 ). We explored the spatial correlation between the channel migration rate and a set of simple variables (e.g., watershed area, channel slope, stream power, active channel width). We found that the spatial variability of the channel migration rates was primary explained by the gross stream power (R 2 = 0.48) and more surprisingly by the active channel width scaled by the watershed area. The relationship between the absolute migration rate and the gross stream power is generally consistent with the published empirical models for freely meandering rivers, whereas it is less significant for the multi-thread reaches. The discussion focused on methodological constraints for a regional-scale modelling of the migration rates, and the interpretation of the empirical models. We hypothesize that the active channel width scaled by the watershed area is a surrogate for the sediment supply which may be a more critical factor than the bank resistance for explaining the regional-scale variability of the migration rates. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Chen, Qiang; Gorb, Stanislav; Kovalev, Alexander; Li, Zhiyong; Pugno, Nicola
Feathers can fulfill their aerodynamic function only if the pennaceous vane forms an airfoil stabilized by robust interlocking between barbules. Thus, revealing the robustness of the interlocking mechanical behavior of the barbules is very important to understand the function and long-term resilience of bird feathers. This paper, basing on the small- and large-beam deflection solutions, presents a hierarchical mechanical model for deriving the critical delamination conditions of the interlocking barbules between two adjacent barbs in bird feathers. The results indicate a high robustness and flaw-tolerant design of the structure. This work contributes to the understanding of the mechanical behavior of the robust interlocking barb-barbule structure of the bird feather, and provides a basis for design of feather-inspired materials with robust interlocking mechanism, such as advanced bio-inspired micro-zipping devices.
Breeding of marine birds on Farwa Island, western Libya. ... They provide food, shelter and nesting grounds for many avifauna during their migration ... northern part of the island and at Ras-Attalgha, beside the plant cover of the island itself.
Wilts, Bodo D; Michielsen, Kristel; De Raedt, Hans; Stavenga, Doekele G
Birds-of-paradise are nature's prime examples of the evolution of color by sexual selection. Their brilliant, structurally colored feathers play a principal role in mating displays. The structural coloration of both the occipital and breast feathers of the bird-of-paradise Lawes' parotia is produced
Hines, James; Powell, Luke L.; Wolfe, Jared D.; Johnson, Erik l.; Nichols, James D.; Stouffer, Phillip C.
Given rates of deforestation, disturbance, and secondary forest accumulation in tropical rainforests, there is a great need to quantify habitat use and movement among different habitats. This need is particularly pronounced for animals most sensitive to disturbance, such as insectivorous understory birds. Here we use multistate capture–recapture models with radiotelemetry data to determine the successional stage at which within-day movement probabilities of Amazonian birds in secondary forest are similar to those in primary forest. We radio-tracked three common understory insectivore species in primary and secondary forest at the Biological Dynamics of Forest Fragments project near Manaus, Brazil: two woodcreepers, Glyphorynchus spirurus (n = 19) andXiphorhynchus pardalotus (n = 18), and the terrestrial antthrush Formicarius colma(n = 19). Forest age was a strong predictor of fidelity to a given habitat. All three species showed greater fidelity to primary forest than to 8–14-year-old secondary forest, indicating the latter’s relatively poor quality. The two woodcreeper species used 12–18-year-old secondary forest in a manner comparable to continuous forest, but F. colmaavoided moving even to 27–31-year-old secondary forest—the oldest at our site. Our results suggest that managers concerned with less sensitive species can assume that forest reserves connected by 12–18-year-old secondary forest corridors are effectively connected. On the other hand, >30 years are required after land abandonment before secondary forest serves as a primary forest-like conduit for movement by F. colma; more sensitive terrestrial insectivores may take longer still.
Carrillo-Rubio, Eduardo; Kéry, Marc; Morreale, Stephen J; Sullivan, Patrick J; Gardner, Beth; Cooch, Evan G; Lassoie, James P
Forest degradation is arguably the greatest threat to biodiversity, ecosystem services, and rural livelihoods. Therefore, increasing understanding of how organisms respond to degradation is essential for management and conservation planning. We were motivated by the need for rapid and practical analytical tools to assess the influence of management and degradation on biodiversity and system state in areas subject to rapid environmental change. We compared bird community composition and size in managed (ejido, i.e., communally owned lands) and unmanaged (national park) forests in the Sierra Tarahumara region, Mexico, using multispecies occupancy models and data from a 2-year breeding bird survey. Unmanaged sites had on average higher species occupancy and richness than managed sites. Most species were present in low numbers as indicated by lower values of detection and occupancy associated with logging-induced degradation. Less than 10% of species had occupancy probabilities >0.5, and degradation had no positive effects on occupancy. The estimated metacommunity size of 125 exceeded previous estimates for the region, and sites with mature trees and uneven-aged forest stand characteristics contained the highest species richness. Higher estimation uncertainty and decreases in richness and occupancy for all species, including habitat generalists, were associated with degraded young, even-aged stands. Our findings show that multispecies occupancy methods provide tractable measures of biodiversity and system state and valuable decision support for landholders and managers. These techniques can be used to rapidly address gaps in biodiversity information, threats to biodiversity, and vulnerabilities of species of interest on a landscape level, even in degraded or fast-changing environments. Moreover, such tools may be particularly relevant in the assessment of species richness and distribution in a wide array of habitats. © 2014 Society for Conservation Biology.
Slack, Rebecca J; Gronow, Jan R; Hall, David H; Voulvoulis, Nikolaos
Municipal solid waste (MSW) landfill leachate contains a number of aquatic pollutants. A specific MSW stream often referred to as household hazardous waste (HHW) can be considered to contribute a large proportion of these pollutants. This paper describes the use of the LandSim (Landfill Performance Simulation) modelling program to assess the environmental consequences of leachate release from a generic MSW landfill in receipt of co-disposed HHW. Heavy metals and organic pollutants were found to migrate into the zones beneath a model landfill site over a 20,000-year period. Arsenic and chromium were found to exceed European Union and US-EPA drinking water standards at the unsaturated zone/aquifer interface, with levels of mercury and cadmium exceeding minimum reporting values (MRVs). The findings demonstrate the pollution potential arising from HHW disposal with MSW.
Ernstoff, Alexi S; Fantke, Peter; Huang, Lei; Jolliet, Olivier
Specialty software and simplified models are often used to estimate migration of potentially toxic chemicals from packaging into food. Current models, however, are not suitable for emerging applications in decision-support tools, e.g. in Life Cycle Assessment and risk-based screening and prioritization, which require rapid computation of accurate estimates for diverse scenarios. To fulfil this need, we develop an accurate and rapid (high-throughput) model that estimates the fraction of organic chemicals migrating from polymeric packaging materials into foods. Several hundred step-wise simulations optimised the model coefficients to cover a range of user-defined scenarios (e.g. temperature). The developed model, operationalised in a spreadsheet for future dissemination, nearly instantaneously estimates chemical migration, and has improved performance over commonly used model simplifications. When using measured diffusion coefficients the model accurately predicted (R 2 = 0.9, standard error (S e ) = 0.5) hundreds of empirical data points for various scenarios. Diffusion coefficient modelling, which determines the speed of chemical transfer from package to food, was a major contributor to uncertainty and dramatically decreased model performance (R 2 = 0.4, S e = 1). In all, this study provides a rapid migration modelling approach to estimate exposure to chemicals in food packaging for emerging screening and prioritization approaches. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Cobben, Marleen M P; van Noordwijk, Arie J
Migration is a widespread phenomenon across the animal kingdom as a response to seasonality in environmental conditions. Partially migratory populations are populations that consist of both migratory and residential individuals. Such populations are very common, yet their stability has long been debated. The inheritance of migratory activity is currently best described by the threshold model of quantitative genetics. The inclusion of such a genetic threshold model for migratory behavior leads to a stable zone in time and space of partially migratory populations under a wide range of demographic parameter values, when assuming stable environmental conditions and unlimited genetic diversity. Migratory species are expected to be particularly sensitive to global warming, as arrival at the breeding grounds might be increasingly mistimed as a result of the uncoupling of long-used cues and actual environmental conditions, with decreasing reproduction as a consequence. Here, we investigate the consequences for migratory behavior and the stability of partially migratory populations under five climate change scenarios and the assumption of a genetic threshold value for migratory behavior in an individual-based model. The results show a spatially and temporally stable zone of partially migratory populations after different lengths of time in all scenarios. In the scenarios in which the species expands its range from a particular set of starting populations, the genetic diversity and location at initialization determine the species' colonization speed across the zone of partial migration and therefore across the entire landscape. Abruptly changing environmental conditions after model initialization never caused a qualitative change in phenotype distributions, or complete extinction. This suggests that climate change-induced shifts in species' ranges as well as changes in survival probabilities and reproductive success can be met with flexibility in migratory behavior at the
Full Text Available A vast amount of work has been dedicated to the effects of hemodynamics and cytokines on leukocyte adhesion and trans-endothelial migration (TEM and subsequent accumulation of leukocyte-derived foam cells in the artery wall. However, a comprehensive mechanobiological model to capture these spatiotemporal events and predict the growth and remodeling of an atherosclerotic artery is still lacking. Here, we present a multiscale model of leukocyte TEM and plaque evolution in the left anterior descending (LAD coronary artery. The approach integrates cellular behaviors via agent-based modeling (ABM and hemodynamic effects via computational fluid dynamics (CFD. In this computational framework, the ABM implements the diffusion kinetics of key biological proteins, namely Low Density Lipoprotein (LDL, Tissue Necrosis Factor alpha (TNF-α, Interlukin-10 (IL-10 and Interlukin-1 beta (IL-1β, to predict chemotactic driven leukocyte migration into and within the artery wall. The ABM also considers wall shear stress (WSS dependent leukocyte TEM and compensatory arterial remodeling obeying Glagov's phenomenon. Interestingly, using fully developed steady blood flow does not result in a representative number of leukocyte TEM as compared to pulsatile flow, whereas passing WSS at peak systole of the pulsatile flow waveform does. Moreover, using the model, we have found leukocyte TEM increases monotonically with decreases in luminal volume. At critical plaque shapes the WSS changes rapidly resulting in sudden increases in leukocyte TEM suggesting lumen volumes that will give rise to rapid plaque growth rates if left untreated. Overall this multi-scale and multi-physics approach appropriately captures and integrates the spatiotemporal events occurring at the cellular level in order to predict leukocyte transmigration and plaque evolution.
Helseth, Anders; Lindström, Åke; Stervander, Martin
We compared the differences between spring and autumn in migration speed, fuelling rates and fuel loads of migrating Red Knots Calidris canutus. As a basis we used ringing data from Ottenby Bird Observatory, southeastern Sweden, collected 1948–2003, with morphometrical data from 1990–2003. Numbers ringed varied between 0 and 301 per year (average 56). Morphometrics, recoveries and recaptures of ringed birds indicated that most birds belonged to the Afro-Siberian subspecies C. c. canutus, poss...
Full Text Available This study presents methods for projecting population and migration over time in cases were empirical data are missing or undependable. The methods are useful for cases in which the researcher has details of population size and structure for a limited period of time (most obviously, the end point, with scattered evidence on other times. It enables estimation of population size, including its structure in age, sex, and status, either forward or backward in time. The program keeps track of all the details. The calculated data can be reported or sampled and compared to empirical findings at various times and places to expected values based on other procedures of estimation. The application of these general methods that is developed here is the projection of African populations backwards in time from 1950, since 1950 is the first date for which consistently strong demographic estimates are available for national-level populations all over the African continent. The models give particular attention to migration through enslavement, which was highly important in Africa from 1650 to 1900. Details include a sensitivity analysis showing relative significance of input variables and techniques for calibrating various dimensions of the projection with each other. These same methods may be applicable to quite different historical situations, as long as the data conform in structure to those considered here.
Nolet, B.A.; Drent, R.H.
Current models of bird migration consider the optimal decision making of individuals irrespective of the behaviour of conspecifics. We observed the foraging behaviour of Bewick's Swans Cygnus columbianus during their stop-over in the Dvina Bay in the White Sea in spring 1995 and 1996. Here the swans
Nolet, BA; Drent, RH
Current models of bird migration consider the optimal decision making of individuals irrespective of the behaviour of conspecifics. We observed the foraging behaviour of Bewick's Swans Cygnus columbianus during their stop-over in the Dvina Bay in the White Sea in spring 1995 and 1996. Here the swans
ABSTRACT. Among the most complex and fascinating behaviour in birds is their long, non-stop migration. Despite Hadejia-Nguru Wetlands (Ramsar site) being an important wintering ground for migratory birds, little is known about the diversity while density is completely lacking. This study assessed the status of migratory ...
Breaching events were associated with a change in feeding groups from waders to pursuit feeders, and a decrease in total bird numbers, most likely due to loss of potential littoral zone foraging habitat for waders resulting from reduced water levels. The highest bird numbers were recorded in winter reflecting the migration of ...
Our findings suggest that in a situation where there is no natural forest, an exotic plantation with suitable indigenous understorey cover can help in protection of birds, including endemic and near-endemic species. Keywords: birds, conservation, Eastern Arc Mountains, plantation, seasonal altitudinal migration, seasons, ...
Sun, Y.; Luo, G.
Seismicity in a region is usually characterized by earthquake clusters and earthquake migration along its major fault zones. However, we do not fully understand why and how earthquake clusters and spatio-temporal migration of earthquakes occur. The northeastern Tibetan Plateau is a good example for us to investigate these problems. In this study, we construct and use a three-dimensional viscoelastoplastic finite-element model to simulate earthquake cycles and spatio-temporal migration of earthquakes along major fault zones in northeastern Tibetan Plateau. We calculate stress evolution and fault interactions, and explore effects of topographic loading and viscosity of middle-lower crust and upper mantle on model results. Model results show that earthquakes and fault interactions increase Coulomb stress on the neighboring faults or segments, accelerating the future earthquakes in this region. Thus, earthquakes occur sequentially in a short time, leading to regional earthquake clusters. Through long-term evolution, stresses on some seismogenic faults, which are far apart, may almost simultaneously reach the critical state of fault failure, probably also leading to regional earthquake clusters and earthquake migration. Based on our model synthetic seismic catalog and paleoseismic data, we analyze probability of earthquake migration between major faults in northeastern Tibetan Plateau. We find that following the 1920 M 8.5 Haiyuan earthquake and the 1927 M 8.0 Gulang earthquake, the next big event (M≥7) in northeastern Tibetan Plateau would be most likely to occur on the Haiyuan fault.
Huff, David D; Lindley, Steven T; Wells, Brian K; Chai, Fei
The green sturgeon (Acipenser medirostris), which is found in the eastern Pacific Ocean from Baja California to the Bering Sea, tends to be highly migratory, moving long distances among estuaries, spawning rivers, and distant coastal regions. Factors that determine the oceanic distribution of green sturgeon are unclear, but broad-scale physical conditions interacting with migration behavior may play an important role. We estimated the distribution of green sturgeon by modeling species-environment relationships using oceanographic and migration behavior covariates with maximum entropy modeling (MaxEnt) of species geographic distributions. The primary concentration of green sturgeon was estimated from approximately 41-51.5° N latitude in the coastal waters of Washington, Oregon, and Vancouver Island and in the vicinity of San Francisco and Monterey Bays from 36-37° N latitude. Unsuitably cold water temperatures in the far north and energetic efficiencies associated with prevailing water currents may provide the best explanation for the range-wide marine distribution of green sturgeon. Independent trawl records, fisheries observer records, and tagging studies corroborated our findings. However, our model also delineated patchily distributed habitat south of Monterey Bay, though there are few records of green sturgeon from this region. Green sturgeon are likely influenced by countervailing pressures governing their dispersal. They are behaviorally directed to revisit natal freshwater spawning rivers and persistent overwintering grounds in coastal marine habitats, yet they are likely physiologically bounded by abiotic and biotic environmental features. Impacts of human activities on green sturgeon or their habitat in coastal waters, such as bottom-disturbing trawl fisheries, may be minimized through marine spatial planning that makes use of high-quality species distribution information.
O'Brien, R.S.; Yu, C.; Zeevaert, T.; Olyslaegers, G.; Amado, V.; Setlow, L.W.; Waggitt, P.W.
This work was carried out as part of the International Atomic Energy Agency's EMRAS program. One aim of the work was to develop scenarios for testing computer models designed for simulating radionuclide migration in the environment, and to use these scenarios for testing the models and comparing predictions from different models. This paper presents the results of the development and testing of a hypothetical area source of NORM waste/residue using two complex computer models and one screening model. There are significant differences in the methods used to model groundwater flow between the complex models. The hypothetical source was used because of its relative simplicity and because of difficulties encountered in finding comprehensive, well-validated data sets for real sites. The source consisted of a simple repository of uniform thickness, with 1 Bq g -1 of uranium-238 ( 238 U) (in secular equilibrium with its decay products) distributed uniformly throughout the waste. These approximate real situations, such as engineered repositories, waste rock piles, tailings piles and landfills. Specification of the site also included the physical layout, vertical stratigraphic details, soil type for each layer of material, precipitation and runoff details, groundwater flow parameters, and meteorological data. Calculations were carried out with and without a cover layer of clean soil above the waste, for people working and living at different locations relative to the waste. The predictions of the two complex models showed several differences which need more detailed examination. The scenario is available for testing by other modelers. It can also be used as a planning tool for remediation work or for repository design, by changing the scenario parameters and running the models for a range of different inputs. Further development will include applying models to real scenarios and integrating environmental impact assessment methods with the safety assessment tools currently
Cohen, Mikhal E; Fainstein, Nina; Lavon, Iris; Ben-Hur, Tamir
Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a multifocal disease, and precursor cells need to migrate into the multiple lesions in order to exert their therapeutic effects. Therefore, cell migration is a crucial element in regenerative processes in MS, dictating the route of delivery, when cell transplantation is considered. We have previously shown that inflammation triggers migration of multi-potential neural precursor cells (NPCs) into the white matter of experimental autoimmune encephalomyelitis (EAE) rodents, a widely used model of MS. Here we investigated the molecular basis of this attraction. NPCs were grown from E13 embryonic mouse brains and transplanted into the lateral cerebral ventricles of EAE mice. Transplanted NPC migration was directed by three tissue-derived chemokines. Stromal cell-derived factor-1α, monocyte chemo-attractant protein-1 and hepatocyte growth factor were expressed in the EAE brain and specifically in microglia and astrocytes. Their cognate receptors, CXCR4, CCR2 or c-Met were constitutively expressed on NPCs. Selective blockage of CXCR4, CCR2 or c-Met partially inhibited NPC migration in EAE brains. Blocking all three receptors had an additive effect and resulted in profound inhibition of NPC migration, as compared to extensive migration of control NPCs. The inflammation-triggered NPC migration into white matter tracts was dependent on a motile NPC phenotype. Specifically, depriving NPCs from epidermal growth factor (EGF) prevented the induction of glial commitment and a motile phenotype (as indicated by an in vitro motility assay), hampering their response to neuroinflammation. In conclusion, signaling via three chemokine systems accounts for most of the inflammation-induced, tissue-derived attraction of transplanted NPCs into white matter tracts during EAE. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier B.V.
Motile cells sense the stiffness of their extracellular matrix (ECM) through adhesions and respond by modulating the generated forces, which in turn lead to varying mechanosensitive migration phenotypes. Through modeling and experiments, cell migration speed is known to vary with matrix stiffness in a biphasic manner, with optimal motility at an intermediate stiffness. Here, we present a two-dimensional cell model defined by nodes and elements, integrated with subcellular modeling components corresponding to mechanotransductive adhesion formation, force generation, protrusions and node displacement. On 2D matrices, our calculations reproduce the classic biphasic dependence of migration speed on matrix stiffness and predict that cell types with higher force-generating ability do not slow down on very stiff matrices, thus disabling the biphasic response. We also predict that cell types defined by lower number of total receptors require stiffer matrices for optimal motility, which also limits the biphasic response. For a cell type with robust biphasic migration on 2D surface, simulations in channel-like confined environments of varying width and height predict faster migration in more confined matrices. Simulations performed in shallower channels predict that the biphasic mechanosensitive cell migration response is more robust on 2D micro-patterns as compared to the channel-like 3D confinement. Thus, variations in the dimensionality of matrix confinement alters the way migratory cells sense and respond to the matrix stiffness. Our calculations reveal new phenotypes of stiffness- and topography-sensitive cell migration that critically depend on both cell-intrinsic and matrix properties. These predictions may inform our understanding of various mechanosensitive modes of cell motility that could enable tumor invasion through topographically heterogeneous microenvironments. © 2018 IOP Publishing Ltd.
Full Text Available Keratinocyte migration during re-epithelization is crucial in wound healing under biochemical and biomechanical microenvironment. However, little is known about the underlying mechanisms whereby mechanical tension and cocultured fibroblasts or keratinocytes modulate the migration of keratinocytes or fibroblasts. Here we applied a tensile device together with a modified transwell assay to determine the lateral and transmembrane migration dynamics of human HaCaT keratinocytes or HF fibroblasts. A novel pattern of asymmetric migration was observed for keratinocytes when they were cocultured with non-contact fibroblasts, i.e., the accumulative distance of HaCaT cells was significantly higher when moving away from HF cells or migrating from down to up cross the membrane than that when moving close to HF cells or when migrating from up to down, whereas HF migration was symmetric. This asymmetric migration was mainly regulated by EGF derived from fibroblasts, but not transforming growth factor α or β1 production. Mechanical stretch subjected to fibroblasts fostered keratinocyte asymmetric migration by increasing EGF secretion, while no role of mechanical stretch was found for EGF secretion by keratinocytes. These results provided a new insight into understanding the regulating mechanisms of two- or three-dimensional migration of keratinocytes or fibroblasts along or across dermis and epidermis under biomechanical microenvironment.
Martínez-López, Brais; Gontard, Nathalie; Peyron, Stéphane
A reliable prediction of migration levels of plastic additives into food requires a robust estimation of diffusivity. Predictive modelling of diffusivity as recommended by the EU commission is carried out using a semi-empirical equation that relies on two polymer-dependent parameters. These parameters were determined for the polymers most used by packaging industry (LLDPE, HDPE, PP, PET, PS, HIPS) from the diffusivity data available at that time. In the specific case of general purpose polystyrene, the diffusivity data published since then shows that the use of the equation with the original parameters results in systematic underestimation of diffusivity. The goal of this study was therefore, to propose an update of the aforementioned parameters for PS on the basis of up to date diffusivity data, so the equation can be used for a reasoned overestimation of diffusivity.
Alkhalifah, Tariq Ali
The double square-root DSR equation is known to image data by downward continuation using one-way depth extrapolation methods. A two-way time extrapolation of the DSR-derived phase operator suffers from an essential singularity for horizontally traveling waves. This singularity can be avoided by limiting the range of wavenumbers treated in a spectral-based extrapolation referred to as the low-rank method. However, the region around the singularity will still induce instability. We derive an approximation to the DSR formulation based on a high frequency approximation. The resulting equation is both highly accurate and free of singularities. Applications to synthetic data including imaging of the Marmousi dataset demonstrate the accuracy of the new prestack modeling and migration approach. © 2011 Society of Exploration Geophysicists.
Khoylou, N.; England, G.L.
This paper describes a numerical modelling procedure, capable of predicting temperature-dependent moisture flow in concrete. The flow direction is not defined by the sign of the temperature gradient. Irreversible thermodynamic process based on the production of entropy are used to check the course of the numerical calculations which take place in a stepwise manner in time. Numerical results indicate that thick walls will take many years to dry significantly. They also show that if venting to atmosphere is introduced at locations within the wall, the pore-water pressure, the water migration behaviour and the drying rate will be changed. This behaviour has also been experimentally observed. (author). 7 refs., 10 figs
Liu, X.; Ortoleva, P.
The use of reaction-transport modeling for reservoir assessment and management in the context of deep well waste injection is evaluated. The study is based on CIRF.A (Chemical Interaction of Rock and Fluid), a fully coupled multiphase flow, contaminant transport, and fluid and mineral reaction model. Although SWIFT (Sandia Waste-Isolation Flow and Transport Model) is often the numerical model of choice, it can not account for chemical reactions involving rock, wastes, and formation fluids and their effects on contaminant transport, rock permeability and porosity, and the integrity of the reservoir and confining units. CIRF.A can simulate all these processes. Two field cases of waste injection were simulated by CIRF.A. Both observation data and simulation results show mineral precipitation in one case and rock dissolution in another case. Precipitation and dissolution change rock porosity and permeability, and hence the pattern of fluid migration. The model is shown to be invaluable in analyzing near borehole and reservoir-scale effects during waste injection and predicting the 10,000 year fate of the waste plume. The benefits of using underpressured compartments as waste repositories were also demonstrated by CIRF.A simulations
Full Text Available Understanding the gas migration in highly water saturated sedimentary rock formations is of great importance for safety of radioactive waste repositories which may use these host rocks as barrier. Recent experiments on drainage in argillite samples have demonstrated that they cannot be represented in terms of standard two-phase flow Darcy model. It has been suggested that gas flows along highly localized dilatant pathways. Due to very small pore size and the opacity of the material, it is not possible to observe this two-phase flow directly. In order to better understand the gas transport, a numerical coupled hydraulic-mechanical model at the pore scale is proposed. The model is formulated in terms of Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics (SPH and is applied to simulate drainage within a sample reconstructed from the Focused Ion Beam (FIB images of Callovo-Oxfordian claystone. A damage model is incorporated to take into account the degradation of elastic solid properties due to local conditions, which may lead to formation of new pathways and thus to modifications of fluid transport. The influence of the damage model as well as the possible importance of rigid inclusions is demonstrated and discussed.
Morris, 1991) and a quantitative variance-based method ( Sobol ’, 1993). The screening method allows an initial reduction in the number of parameters...generic (model free) methods, a qualitative Morris method and a quantitative variance-based Sobol method. The Morris method ranks the model inputs...according to their importance in driving model outputs uncertainty, while the Sobol method computes the contribution of each model input to the
Scheer, Dirk; Konrad, Wilfried; Class, Holger; Kissinger, Alexander; Knopf, Stefan; Noack, Vera
Saltwater intrusion into potential drinking water aquifers due to the injection of CO2 into deep saline aquifers is one of the potential hazards associated with the geological storage of CO2. Thus, in a site selection process, models for predicting the fate of the displaced brine are required, for example, for a risk assessment or the optimization of pressure management concepts. From the very beginning, this research on brine migration aimed at involving expert and stakeholder knowledge and assessment in simulating the impacts of injecting CO2 into deep saline aquifers by means of a participatory modeling process. The involvement exercise made use of two approaches. First, guideline-based interviews were carried out, aiming at eliciting expert and stakeholder knowledge and assessments of geological structures and mechanisms affecting CO2-induced brine migration. Second, a stakeholder workshop including the World Café format yielded evaluations and judgments of the numerical modeling approach, scenario selection, and preliminary simulation results. The participatory modeling approach gained several results covering brine migration in general, the geological model sketch, scenario development, and the review of the preliminary simulation results. These results were included in revised versions of both the geological model and the numerical model, helping to improve the analysis of regional-scale brine migration along vertical pathways due to CO2 injection.
Kurikami, Hiroshi; Kitamura, Akihiro; Yamada, Susumu; Machida, Masahiko
Several numerical models have been prepared to deal with various time- and spatial-scale issues related to radioactive cesium migration in environment in Fukushima area. The SACT (Soil and Cesium Transport) model developed by the Japan Atomic Energy Agency (JAEA) predicts middle- to long-term evolution of radioactive cesium distribution due to soil erosion, subsequent sediment transport and deposition, and radioactive cesium migration based on the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE). The TODAM (Time-dependent One-dimensional Degradation and Migration) model, iRIC/Nays2D and the FLESCOT (Flow, Energy, Salinity, Sediment, Contaminant Transport) model are one-, two- and three-dimensional river/reservoir/coastal models, respectively. Based on conservation equations of sediment and radioactive cesium, they treat advection and diffusion of suspended sediment and cesium, deposition of sediment to bed, re-suspension from bed and adsorption/desorption of radioactive cesium. These models are suitable for small and short time scale issues such as high discharges of sediment and radioactive cesium from rivers due to heavy rainfall events. This paper describes fragments of the JAEA’s approaches of modeling to deal with the issues corresponding to radioactive cesium migration in environment with some case studies. (author)
Tara L Crewe
Full Text Available The use of counts of unmarked migrating animals to monitor long term population trends assumes independence of daily counts and a constant rate of detection. However, migratory stopovers often last days or weeks, violating the assumption of count independence. Further, a systematic change in stopover duration will result in a change in the probability of detecting individuals once, but also in the probability of detecting individuals on more than one sampling occasion. We tested how variation in stopover duration influenced accuracy and precision of population trends by simulating migration count data with known constant rate of population change and by allowing daily probability of survival (an index of stopover duration to remain constant, or to vary randomly, cyclically, or increase linearly over time by various levels. Using simulated datasets with a systematic increase in stopover duration, we also tested whether any resulting bias in population trend could be reduced by modeling the underlying source of variation in detection, or by subsampling data to every three or five days to reduce the incidence of recounting. Mean bias in population trend did not differ significantly from zero when stopover duration remained constant or varied randomly over time, but bias and the detection of false trends increased significantly with a systematic increase in stopover duration. Importantly, an increase in stopover duration over time resulted in a compounding effect on counts due to the increased probability of detection and of recounting on subsequent sampling occasions. Under this scenario, bias in population trend could not be modeled using a covariate for stopover duration alone. Rather, to improve inference drawn about long term population change using counts of unmarked migrants, analyses must include a covariate for stopover duration, as well as incorporate sampling modifications (e.g., subsampling to reduce the probability that individuals will
Oort, van E.D.
Since May of this year the Museum of Natural History at Leyden is carrying into execution the inquiry into migration and other movements of birds in the Netherlands by means of aluminium rings. The results will be published in this periodical and at the same time in Dutch in the periodical of the
Solov'yov, Ilia; Greiner, Walter
Migrating birds fly thousand miles without having a map, or a GPS unit. But they may carry their own sensitive navigational tool, which allows them "see" the Earth’s magnetic field. Here we review the important physical and chemical constraints on a possible compass sensor and discuss the suggest......Migrating birds fly thousand miles without having a map, or a GPS unit. But they may carry their own sensitive navigational tool, which allows them "see" the Earth’s magnetic field. Here we review the important physical and chemical constraints on a possible compass sensor and discuss...... the suggestion that radical pairs in a photoreceptor cryptochrome might provide a biological realization for a magnetic compass. Finally, we review the current evidence supporting a role for radical pair reactions in the magnetic compass of birds....
Vaca-González, J J; Gutiérrez, M L; Guevara, J M; Garzón-Alvarado, D A
Articular cartilage is characterized by low cell density of only one cell type, chondrocytes, and has limited self-healing properties. When articular cartilage is affected by traumatic injuries, a therapeutic strategy such as autologous chondrocyte implantation is usually proposed for its treatment. This approach requires in vitro chondrocyte expansion to yield high cell number for cell transplantation. To improve the efficiency of this procedure, it is necessary to assess cell dynamics such as migration, proliferation and cell death during culture. Computational models such as cellular automata can be used to simulate cell dynamics in order to enhance the result of cell culture procedures. This methodology has been implemented for several cell types; however, an experimental validation is required for each one. For this reason, in this research a cellular automata model, based on random-walk theory, was devised in order to predict articular chondrocyte behavior in monolayer culture during cell expansion. Results demonstrated that the cellular automata model corresponded to cell dynamics and computed-accurate quantitative results. Moreover, it was possible to observe that cell dynamics depend on weighted probabilities derived from experimental data and cell behavior varies according to the cell culture period. Thus, depending on whether cells were just seeded or proliferated exponentially, culture time probabilities differed in percentages in the CA model. Furthermore, in the experimental assessment a decreased chondrocyte proliferation was observed along with increased passage number. This approach is expected to having other uses as in enhancing articular cartilage therapies based on tissue engineering and regenerative medicine.
The Azov and Black Sea basins are transcontinental migration routes of wild birds from Northern Asia and Europe to the Mediterranean, Africa and Southwest Asia. These regions constitute an area of transit, stops during migration, and nesting of many migratory bird species with a very high level of ...
Crommenacker, van de J.; Horrocks, N.P.C.; Versteegh, M.A.; Tieleman, B.I.; Komdeur, J.; Matson, K.D.
One route to gain insight into the causes and consequences of ecological differentiation is to understand the underlying physiological mechanisms. We explored the relationships between immunological and oxidative status and investigated how birds cope physiologically with the effects of
Thomas W. Bonnot; Frank R. Thompson; Joshua J. Millspaugh; D. Todd. Jones-Farland
Efforts to conserve regional biodiversity in the face of global climate change, habitat loss and fragmentation will depend on approaches that consider population processes at multiple scales. By combining habitat and demographic modeling, landscape-based population viability models effectively relate small-scale habitat and landscape patterns to regional population...
Kjaer Christensen, T.; Hounisen, J.P. [NERI, Dept. of Wildlife Ecology and Biodiversity, Roskilde (Denmark)
The aim of the project is to assess the collision risk between birds and wind turbines at the Horns Rev wind farm. The study focused on describing bird movements in relation to the wind farm and to identify the species-specific behavioural responses towards the wind turbines shown by migrating and staging bird species. The study was based on data from spring 2004. The Horns Rev area lies in a region known to be of importance for substantial water bird migration as well as holding internationally important numbers of several wintering and staging water bird species. (au)
Kjaer Christensen, T.; Hounisen, J.P.
The aim of the project is to assess the collision risk between birds and wind turbines at the Horns Rev wind farm. The study focused on describing bird movements in relation to the wind farm and to identify the species-specific behavioural responses towards the wind turbines shown by migrating and staging bird species. The study was based on data from spring 2004. The Horns Rev area lies in a region known to be of importance for substantial water bird migration as well as holding internationally important numbers of several wintering and staging water bird species. (au)
Castle, L; Hart, A; Holmes, M J; Oldring, P K T
A two-dimensional probabilistic model was constructed to estimate the short-term dietary exposure of UK consumers to any generalized migrant from coated light metal food packaging. Using three UK National Dietary and Nutrition Surveys (NDNS) comprising 4-7-day dietary surveys for different age and gender groups, actual body weights and survey years, a sample representative of the dietary consumption of the UK population was obtained comprising around 4,200 food items. Interrogation of the raw data showed that the per capita consumption of food and beverage for an adult was 2.9 kg per person day(-1), which is comparable with the US FDA value of 3.0 kg. The packaging type of each food item was assigned from the survey descriptions or by sampling from distributions based upon market share information and expert judgement. Each food item was assigned to the relevant food simulant: A (aqueous), B (acidic) or D (fatty), so that simulant migration data could be used. The exposure model was used to evaluate exposure for a given level of migration and, conversely, the level of migration that could be tolerated whilst keeping within a target threshold exposure level. As examples, migration at 10 microg dm(-2) into fatty foods only resulted in an exposure ranging from 0.06 to 0.22 microg kg(-1) body (actual) weight day(-1) depending on the scenario. The model revealed that if migration from metal coatings was only into fatty foods, migration in the range 1.83-4.95 microg dm(2) (97.5th percentile, depending on the scenario) would give an exposure of less than 1.5 microg per person day(-1). This is a toxicological threshold limit used in the USA. If migration into simulants A and B is also considered to be at the same level as that for simulant D, then the level of migration for the threshold to be reached is, not surprisingly, lower (0.64-0.87 microg dm(-2)) than that if migration were only into fatty foods. In this case, clearly the main contributors to the exposure were
Joseph, A.T.; Grenney, W.J.; Stevens, D.K.
The VIP model, which simulates the concentration profiles of the hazardous compounds in the soil, water, and the air phases, assumes a fixed oily phase. The purpose of this study was to measure oil migration in soil systems and to determine its effect on the VIP model output. Experiments were conducted to demonstrate the mobility of an oil through the unsaturated zone of the soil. The studies were conducted in laboratory scale glass columns. A light petroleum oil and two types of soil were used. The experiments demonstrated that oil migrates down significantly through the soil columns. The extent of migration depended on the volume of oil applied and the type of soil. However, the applied oil was completely immobilized in the columns. The model was modified to incorporate oil migration. The modified model can be expected to produce more realistic contaminant concentration profiles during land treatment of oily wastes when compared to that produced by the present version of the VIP model. (Author)
Ezeuko, C.C.; McDougall, S.R. [Heriot-Watt Univ., Edinburgh (United Kingdom); Bondino, I. [Total E and P UK Ltd., London (United Kingdom); Hamon, G. [Total S.A., Paris (France)
In an attempt to investigate the impact of gravitational forces on gas evolution during solution gas drive, a number of vertically-oriented heavy oil depletion experiments have been conducted. Some of the results of these studies suggest the occurrence of gas migration during these tests. However, a major limitation of these experiments is the difficulty in visualizing the process in reservoir rock samples. Experimental observations using transparent glass models have been useful in this context and provide a sound physical basis for modelling gravitational gas migration in gas-oil systems. This paper presented a new pore network simulator that was capable of modelling the time-dependent migration of growing gas structures. Multiple pore filling events were dynamically modelled with interface tracking allowing the full range of migratory behaviours to be reproduced, including braided migration and discontinuous dispersed flow. Simulation results were compared with experiments and were found to be in excellent agreement. The paper presented the model and discussed the implication of evolution regime on recovery from heavy oil systems undergoing depressurization. The simulation results demonstrated the complex interaction of a number of network and fluid parameters. It was concluded that the concomitant effect on the competition between capillarity and buoyancy produced different gas evolution patterns during pressure depletion. 28 refs., 2 tabs., 19 figs.
Taherdangkoo, Reza; Tatomir, Alexandru; Sauter, Martin
Hydraulic fracturing operation in shale gas reservoir has gained growing interest over the last few years. Groundwater contamination is one of the most important environmental concerns that have emerged surrounding shale gas development (Reagan et al., 2015). The potential impacts of hydraulic fracturing could be studied through the possible pathways for subsurface migration of contaminants towards overlying aquifers (Kissinger et al., 2013; Myers, 2012). The intent of this study is to investigate, by means of numerical simulation, two failure scenarios which are based on the presence of a fault zone that penetrates the full thickness of overburden and connect shale gas reservoir to aquifer. Scenario 1 addresses the potential transport of fracturing fluid from the shale into the subsurface. This scenario was modeled with COMSOL Multiphysics software. Scenario 2 deals with the leakage of methane from the reservoir into the overburden. The numerical modeling of this scenario was implemented in DuMux (free and open-source software), discrete fracture model (DFM) simulator (Tatomir, 2012). The modeling results are used to evaluate the influence of several important parameters (reservoir pressure, aquifer-reservoir separation thickness, fault zone inclination, porosity, permeability, etc.) that could affect the fluid transport through the fault zone. Furthermore, we determined the main transport mechanisms and circumstances in which would allow frack fluid or methane migrate through the fault zone into geological layers. The results show that presence of a conductive fault could reduce the contaminant travel time and a significant contaminant leakage, under certain hydraulic conditions, is most likely to occur. Bibliography Kissinger, A., Helmig, R., Ebigbo, A., Class, H., Lange, T., Sauter, M., Heitfeld, M., Klünker, J., Jahnke, W., 2013. Hydraulic fracturing in unconventional gas reservoirs: risks in the geological system, part 2. Environ Earth Sci 70, 3855
Erickson, Richard A.; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Russell, Robin E.; Diffendorfer, James E.; Szymanski, Jennifer A.
Bats are ecologically and economically important species because they consume insects, transport nutrients, and pollinate flowers. Many species of bats, including those in the Myotis genus, are facing population decline and increased extinction risk. Despite these conservation concerns, few models exist for providing insight into the population dynamics of bats in a spatially explicit context. We developed a model for bats by considering the stage-structured colonial life history of Myotis bats with their annual migration behavior. This model provided insight into network dynamics. We specifically focused on two Myotis species living in the eastern United States: the Indiana bat (M. sodalis), which is a Federally listed endangered species, and the little brown bat (M. lucifugus), which is under consideration for listing as an endangered species. We found that multiple equilibria exist for the local, migratory subpopulations even though the total population was constant. These equilibria suggest the location and magnitude of stressors such as White-nose Syndrome, meteorological phenomena, or impacts of wind turbines on survival influence system dynamics and risk of population extirpation in difficult to predict ways.
Muijres, Florian T; Johansson, L Christoffer; Bowlin, Melissa S; Winter, York; Hedenström, Anders
Flight is one of the energetically most costly activities in the animal kingdom, suggesting that natural selection should work to optimize flight performance. The similar size and flight speed of birds and bats may therefore suggest convergent aerodynamic performance; alternatively, flight performance could be restricted by phylogenetic constraints. We test which of these scenarios fit to two measures of aerodynamic flight efficiency in two passerine bird species and two New World leaf-nosed bat species. Using time-resolved particle image velocimetry measurements of the wake of the animals flying in a wind tunnel, we derived the span efficiency, a metric for the efficiency of generating lift, and the lift-to-drag ratio, a metric for mechanical energetic flight efficiency. We show that the birds significantly outperform the bats in both metrics, which we ascribe to variation in aerodynamic function of body and wing upstroke: Bird bodies generated relatively more lift than bat bodies, resulting in a more uniform spanwise lift distribution and higher span efficiency. A likely explanation would be that the bat ears and nose leaf, associated with echolocation, disturb the flow over the body. During the upstroke, the birds retract their wings to make them aerodynamically inactive, while the membranous bat wings generate thrust and negative lift. Despite the differences in performance, the wake morphology of both birds and bats resemble the optimal wake for their respective lift-to-drag ratio regimes. This suggests that evolution has optimized performance relative to the respective conditions of birds and bats, but that maximum performance is possibly limited by phylogenetic constraints. Although ecological differences between birds and bats are subjected to many conspiring variables, the different aerodynamic flight efficiency for the bird and bat species studied here may help explain why birds typically fly faster, migrate more frequently and migrate longer distances
Florian T Muijres
Full Text Available Flight is one of the energetically most costly activities in the animal kingdom, suggesting that natural selection should work to optimize flight performance. The similar size and flight speed of birds and bats may therefore suggest convergent aerodynamic performance; alternatively, flight performance could be restricted by phylogenetic constraints. We test which of these scenarios fit to two measures of aerodynamic flight efficiency in two passerine bird species and two New World leaf-nosed bat species. Using time-resolved particle image velocimetry measurements of the wake of the animals flying in a wind tunnel, we derived the span efficiency, a metric for the efficiency of generating lift, and the lift-to-drag ratio, a metric for mechanical energetic flight efficiency. We show that the birds significantly outperform the bats in both metrics, which we ascribe to variation in aerodynamic function of body and wing upstroke: Bird bodies generated relatively more lift than bat bodies, resulting in a more uniform spanwise lift distribution and higher span efficiency. A likely explanation would be that the bat ears and nose leaf, associated with echolocation, disturb the flow over the body. During the upstroke, the birds retract their wings to make them aerodynamically inactive, while the membranous bat wings generate thrust and negative lift. Despite the differences in performance, the wake morphology of both birds and bats resemble the optimal wake for their respective lift-to-drag ratio regimes. This suggests that evolution has optimized performance relative to the respective conditions of birds and bats, but that maximum performance is possibly limited by phylogenetic constraints. Although ecological differences between birds and bats are subjected to many conspiring variables, the different aerodynamic flight efficiency for the bird and bat species studied here may help explain why birds typically fly faster, migrate more frequently and migrate
This report considers peculiarities of the mathematical description of radionuclides migration between water environment and biotic and abiotic components of the Black Sea ecosystems at different periods of averaging, from the time scale of metabolic processes, taking place in hydrobionts, to the large-scale description of radionuclides migration in the Black Sea
The title study concerns the period 1984-1991. The wind park consists of 18 three-bladed 300 kW horizontal axis wind turbines of 35 meters height, and a rotor diameter of 30 meters, seven meteorological towers, and three cluster and control buildings. Aspects studied included disturbance of breeding, resting or feeding, and migrating birds, behavior of birds approaching the wind turbines during the day and night, and bird victims due to collision with the wind turbines and the meteorological towers. In this report attention is paid to the disturbance of the bird's biotope. The results show that four species of grassland birds, breeding in the park, were hardly disturbed by the wind turbines. For feeding and resting birds, however, disturbance effects were noted, even at a distance of 500 meters from the outside wind turbine array. The present number of bird species reduced 60-95%, dependent on the species, after the wind park was put into operation. Also the behavior of migrating birds was influenced by the wind park, showed in clustering of groups or avoiding the wind park, sometimes up to 67% of the birds did so. It is therefore recommended not to implement new wind parks in important bird migration and bird feeding or bird resting areas. Bird popular areas, however, are mostly windy areas. 15 figs., 25 tabs., 56 app., 128 refs
Cererols, N.; Martinez, A.; Ferrer, M.
This paper shows the conclusions of a 16 month study of the possible impacts on the local and migrating population of birds of a wind farm located in the passageway of migrating birds between Africa and Europe. On the whole, the wind farm did not prove to represent an important impact on the birds present in its surroundings and, on the contrary, created a new habitat for some species not present in adjacent areas. (author)
In this thesis the Loureiro model of radon migration from soil to a house has been verified. For this purpose the computer code TRIAD has been used. The input data for this code are the ground penetrability and porosity. Methods for determination of these parameters have bee developed and equipment for its measurements has been manufactured and tested
Tanvig, Mette; Blaabjerg, Morten; Andersen, Rikke K
The rostral migratory stream (RMS) is the main pathway by which newly born subventricular zone (SVZ) cells reach the olfactory bulb (OB) in rodents. This migration has been well studied in vivo, but an organotypic in vitro model would facilitate more experimental investigations. Here we introduce...
Kekkonen, J.; Byholm, P.
Contemporary tracking studies reveal that low migratory connectivity between breeding and non-breeding ranges is common in migrant landbirds. It is unclear, however, how internal factors and early-life experiences of individual migrants shape the development of their migration routes and concomitant population-level non-breeding distributions. Stochastic wind conditions and geography may determine whether and where migrants end up by the end of their journey. We tested this hypothesis by satellite-tagging 31 fledgling honey buzzards Pernis apivorus from southern Finland and used a global atmospheric reanalysis model to estimate the wind conditions they encountered on their first outbound migration. Migration routes diverged rapidly upon departure and the birds eventually spread out across 3340 km of longitude. Using linear regression models, we show that the birds' longitudinal speeds were strongly affected by zonal wind speed, and negatively affected by latitudinal wind, with significant but minor differences between individuals. Eventually, 49% of variability in the birds' total longitudinal displacements was accounted for by wind conditions on migration. Some birds circumvented the Baltic Sea via Scandinavia or engaged in unusual downwind movements over the Mediterranean, which also affected the longitude at which these individuals arrived in sub-Saharan Africa. To understand why adult migrants use the migration routes and non-breeding sites they use, we must take into account the way in which wind conditions moulded their very first journeys. Our results present some of the first evidence into the mechanisms through which low migratory connectivity emerges. PMID:28539514
Higashihara, Tomohiro; Ono, Makoto; Kawaragi, Chie; Saito, Shigeyuki
In intermediate depth disposal facility of radioactive waste in Japan, waste is surrounded with bentonite layer to retard interaction of the waste and groundwater, because the bentonite layer saturated with the groundwater has very low hydraulic conductivity. On the other hand, it is important to confirm stability of barrier system for stress generated together with swelling of the bentonite and to understand effect of increase of gas pressure because of generation of hydrogen gas by corrosion of metallic waste. To understand and evaluate the swelling behavior of the bentonite layer, JNES carries out the experiment. In the experiments, we carry out the swelling experiment to examine the swelling behavior of the bentonite layer and the gas migration experiment to understand the gas migration behavior in the bentonite layer, using engineering scale model of the disposal facility. The swelling experiment has been in operation since June 2010. After this experiment, the gas migration experiment will start in July 2011. (orig.)
Bäckman, Johan; Andersson, Arne; Pedersen, Lykke
The use of accelerometers has become an important part of biologging techniques for large-sized birds with accelerometer data providing information about flight mode, wing-beat pattern, behaviour and energy expenditure. Such data show that birds using much energy-saving soaring/gliding flight like...... frigatebirds and swifts can stay airborne without landing for several months. Successful accelerometer studies have recently been conducted also for free-flying small songbirds during their entire annual cycle. Here we review the principles and possibilities for accelerometer studies in bird migration. We use...... of the life cycle. Accelerometer recording of the annual activity patterns of individual birds will open up a new dimension in bird migration research....
Osborn, R.G.; Dieter, C.D.; Higgins, K.F.; Usgaard, R.E.
During 1994-1995, we saw 70 species of birds on the Buffalo Ridge Wind Resource Area. In both years bird abundance peaked in spring. Red-winged blackbirds (Agelaius phoeniceus), mallards (Anas platyrhynchos), common grackles (Quiscalus quiscula), and barn swallows (Hirundo rustica) were the species most commonly seen. Most birds (82-84%) flew above or below the height range of wind turbine blades (22-55 m). The Buffalo Ridge Wind Resource Area poses little threat to resident or migrating birds at its current operating level.
Slack, Rebecca J.; Gronow, Jan R.; Hall, David H.; Voulvoulis, Nikolaos
Municipal solid waste (MSW) landfill leachate contains a number of aquatic pollutants. A specific MSW stream often referred to as household hazardous waste (HHW) can be considered to contribute a large proportion of these pollutants. This paper describes the use of the LandSim (Landfill Performance Simulation) modelling program to assess the environmental consequences of leachate release from a generic MSW landfill in receipt of co-disposed HHW. Heavy metals and organic pollutants were found to migrate into the zones beneath a model landfill site over a 20,000-year period. Arsenic and chromium were found to exceed European Union and US-EPA drinking water standards at the unsaturated zone/aquifer interface, with levels of mercury and cadmium exceeding minimum reporting values (MRVs). The findings demonstrate the pollution potential arising from HHW disposal with MSW. - Aquatic pollutants linked to the disposal of household hazardous waste in municipal landfills have the potential to exist in soil and groundwater for many years
Hildebrand, S.T.; Carroll, R.J.
A depth migration method is presented that used Radon-transformed common-source seismograms as input. It is shown that the Radon depth migration method can be extended to spatially varying velocity depth models by using asymptotic ray theory (ART) to construct wavefield continuation operators. These operators downward continue an incident receiver-array plane wave and an assumed point-source wavefield into the subsurface. The migration velocity model is constrain to have longer characteristic wavelengths than the dominant source wavelength such that the ART approximations for the continuation operators are valid. This method is used successfully to migrate two synthetic data examples: (1) a point diffractor, and (2) a dipping layer and syncline interface model. It is shown that the Radon migration method has a computational advantage over the standard Kirchhoff migration method in that fewer rays are computed in a main memory implementation
Tawara, Y.; Mori, K.; Tada, K.; Shimura, T.; Sato, S.; Yamamoto, S.; Asano, H.; Namiki, K.
Document available in extended abstract form only. After the completion of field-scaled Gas Migration Test (GMT) at the Grimsel Test Site (GTS Phase V Project, 1996-2004), an advanced gas migration modelling study has been implemented to increase the accuracy and reliability as a part of the R and D programs by the Radioactive Waste Management funding and research Center (RWMC) in Japan. The multiple gas migration modes which consist of diffusive transport of dissolved gas, conventional two phase flow, pore failure induced microscopic fissuring and macroscopic fracturing flow, were identified in GMT bentonite. However the required parameters and constitutive models governing those modes are still uncertain. To tackle this issue, an extended validation and scoping study aiming to generalize such gas migration behavior has been performed in the advanced gas migration modelling study. One of the main objectives of the validation study is to identify gas migration modes using laboratory test data and to qualify the alternative models and parameters. In the scoping study, we have extracted the specific THMC (Thermal, Hydrological, Mechanical and Chemical) coupled processes which have impacts on the performance measures such as the pressure built-up in EBS (Engineered Barrier System) and expelled water to the geosphere by gas generation and transport. The measured data of hydration tests and gas injection tests using bentonite specimens with different water contents were reproduced. Two phase flow parameters were estimated using the observed data of both types of tests, independently. The simulated results of the conventional two phase flow model were well-matched with the hydration test data. In the gas injection test, the extended two phase flow model which simulates the pressure-induced pore failure (pathway dilation), was able to reproduce observed data reasonably. However, we found that the identified parameters obtained from the hydration test data were
Garijo, N; Manzano, R; Osta, R; Perez, M A
Cell migration and proliferation has been modelled in the literature as a process similar to diffusion. However, using diffusion models to simulate the proliferation and migration of cells tends to create a homogeneous distribution in the cell density that does not correlate to empirical observations. In fact, the mechanism of cell dispersal is not diffusion. Cells disperse by crawling or proliferation, or are transported in a moving ﬂuid. The use of cellular automata, particle models or cell-based models can overcome this limitation. This paper presents a stochastic cellular automata model to simulate the proliferation, migration and differentiation of cells. These processes are considered as completely stochastic as well as discrete. The model developed was applied to predict the behaviour of in vitro cell cultures performed with adult muscle satellite cells. Moreover, non homogeneous distribution of cells has been observed inside the culture well and, using the above mentioned stochastic cellular automata model, we have been able to predict this heterogeneous cell distribution and compute accurate quantitative results. Differentiation was also incorporated into the computational simulation. The results predicted the myotube formation that typically occurs with adult muscle satellite cells. In conclusion, we have shown how a stochastic cellular automata model can be implemented and is capable of reproducing the in vitro behaviour of adult muscle satellite cells. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Carney Laurel H
Full Text Available Abstract Background Mutations, toxic insults and radiation exposure are known to slow or arrest the migration of cortical neurons, in most cases by unknown mechanisms. The movement of migrating neurons is saltatory, reflecting the intermittent movement of the nucleus (nucleokinesis within the confines of the plasma membrane. Each nucleokinetic movement is analogous to a step. Thus, average migration speed could be reduced by lowering step frequency and/or step distance. Results To assess the kinetic features of cortical neuron migration we developed a cell culture system that supports fiber-guided migration. In this system, the majority of fiber-apposed cells were neurons, expressed age-appropriate cortical-layer specific markers and migrated during a 30 min imaging period. Comparison of the slowest and fastest quartiles of cells revealed a 5-fold difference in average speed. The major determinant of average speed in slower cells (6–26 μm/hr was step frequency, while step distance was the critical determinant of average speed in faster cells (>26 μm/hr. Surprisingly, step distance was largely determined by the average duration of the step, rather than the speed of nucleokinesis during the step, which differed by only 1.3-fold between the slowest and fastest quartiles. Conclusion Saltatory event frequency and duration, not nucleokinetic speed, are the major determinants of average migration speed in healthy neurons. Alteration of either saltatory event frequency or duration should be considered along with nucleokinetic abnormalities as possible contributors to pathological conditions.
Nos, V.; Rosa, J. C. de la; Hernandez, H.
This paper describes the systematics of adaptation and conversion of models, to migrate the detailed analysis of human actions from the APS (in operation at power) of NPP Vandellos, which uses the HCR to SAIC-CRT model. Are offered the results achieved after the migration and the main conclusions.
Full Text Available Abstract Background Ancylostoma caninum third-stage larvae are the non-feeding infective stage of this parasite and are able to infect potential hosts via different infection routes. Since percutaneous infection is one of the most important routes and skin penetration is the first step into parasitic life, an existing in vitro model for percutaneous migration was modified and evaluated. The main parameter used to evaluate migration was the migration ratio (migrated larvae as a percentage of total number of larvae recovered. Additionally, the skin lag was calculated, expressing the percentage of larvae remaining in the skin and therefore not being recovered. Since initiation of feeding is proposed to be an important step in the transition from free-living to parasitic A. caninum larvae, feeding assays were performed with in vitro percutaneously migrated larvae. Additionally, infective larvae of A. caninum were activated via serum-stimulation and feeding behaviour was analysed and compared between percutaneously migrated and serum-stimulated larvae. Results Maximum skin migration levels of infective larvae were observed at temperatures above 32°C when larvae were placed on the epidermal side of skin for more than 12 hours. The medium beneath the skin had no effect on migration ratio, and no significant difference between the migration ratios through fresh and frozen/thawed skin was observed. Maximum feeding levels of 93.2% were observed for percutaneously migrated larvae after 48 h incubation, whereas serum-stimulated larvae reached the maximum of 91.0% feeding larvae after 24 h. Conclusions The PERL chamber system was optimised and standardised as an in vitro model for percutaneous migration. The larvae recovered after percutaneous migration showed characteristic signs of activation similar to that of serum-stimulated larvae. The observed difference in time course of resumption of feeding indicates that percutaneously migrated larvae are not
Djajic, S; Milbourne, R
"This paper examines the problem of guest-worker migration from an economy populated by identical, utility-maximizing individuals with finite working lives. The decision to migrate, the rate of saving while abroad, as well as the length of a migrant's stay in the foreign country, are all viewed as part of a solution to an intertemporal optimization problem. In addition to studying the microeconomic aspects of temporary migration, the paper analyses the determinants of the equilibrium flow of migrants, the corresponding domestic wage, and the level of welfare enjoyed by a typical worker. Effects of an emigration tax are also investigated." excerpt
Elena Raluca CRISTIAN
Full Text Available The migrations process is influenced by a series of factors such as: degree of employment, migrant’s salary level in the origin and destination countries, age, gender, education and professional training, economic development, unemployment, prices and purchase power. The migrations flows originate especially from the poor or very poor countries, believed to be underprivileged, the migrant choosing, obviously, developed countries. International migration involves a series of effects and consequences (positive and negative for both countries involved - the origin and the destination - for undetermined periods of time.
Pan, Huo Ping; Fouts, James R.
Papers published over 100 years since the beginning of the scientific study of drug metabolism in birds were reviewed. Birds were found to be able to accomplish more than 20 general biotransformation reactions in both functionalization and conjugation. Chickens were the primary subject of study but over 30 species of birds were used. Large species differences in drug metabolism exist between birds and mammals as well as between various birds, these differences were mostly quantitative. Qualitative differences were rare. On the whole, drug metabolism studies in birds have been neglected as compared with similar studies on insects and mammals. The uniqueness of birds and the advantages of using birds in drug metabolism studies are discussed. Possible future studies of drug metabolism in birds are recommended.
Zhen, Z.; Jia, X.
Element-free method (EFM) has been applied to seismic modeling and migration. Compared with finite element method (FEM) and finite difference method (FDM), it is much cheaper and more flexible because only the information of the nodes and the boundary of the study area are required in computation. In the EFM, the number of Gauss points should be consistent with the number of model nodes; otherwise the accuracy of the intermediate coefficient matrices would be harmed. Thus when we increase the nodes of velocity model in order to obtain higher resolution, we find that the size of the computer's memory will be a bottleneck. The original EFM can deal with at most 81×81 nodes in the case of 2G memory, as tested by Jia and Hu (2006). In order to solve the problem of storage and computation efficiency, we propose a concept of Gauss points partition (GPP), and utilize the GPUs to improve the computation efficiency. Considering the characteristics of the Gaussian points, the GPP method doesn't influence the propagation of seismic wave in the velocity model. To overcome the time-consuming computation of the stiffness matrix (K) and the mass matrix (M), we also use the GPUs in our computation program. We employ the compressed sparse row (CSR) format to compress the intermediate sparse matrices and try to simplify the operations by solving the linear equations with the CULA Sparse's Conjugate Gradient (CG) solver instead of the linear sparse solver 'PARDISO'. It is observed that our strategy can significantly reduce the computational time of K and Mcompared with the algorithm based on CPU. The model tested is Marmousi model. The length of the model is 7425m and the depth is 2990m. We discretize the model with 595x298 nodes, 300x300 Gauss cells and 3x3 Gauss points in each cell. In contrast to the computational time of the conventional EFM, the GPUs-GPP approach can substantially improve the efficiency. The speedup ratio of time consumption of computing K, M is 120 and the
Peel, Frank J.
Existing models for the initiation of salt withdrawal minibasins focus on the role of triggers that exist within the minibasin, either stratigraphic (e.g. differential deposition) or tectonic (extension, translation or contraction). Existing studies tend to focus on complex settings, such as continental margins, which contain many different potential triggering mechanisms. It can be difficult in these settings to identify which process is responsible for minibasin initiation, or the influence of individual factors on their subsequent development. Salt withdrawal minibasins also exist in simpler settings, without any obvious intrinsic trigger; the region of the North German Basin used by Trusheim (1960) in the classic definition of salt withdrawal geometries was of this nature. There is no overall basal or surface slope, no major lateral movement, and there is no depositional heterogeneity. Previously recognized trigger processes for minibasin initiation do not apply in this benign setting, suggesting that other, potentially more fundamental, influences may be at work. A simple forward-modelling approach shows how, in the absence of any other mechanism, a new minibasin can develop as the consequence of salt movement driven by its neighbour, and families of withdrawal minibasins can propagate across a region from a single seed point. This new mechanism may explain how some minibasins appear to initiate before the sediment density has exceeded that of the underlying salt. The forward modelling also indicates that some minibasins begin to invert to form turtle anticlines before the underlying salt has been evacuated, so that the timing of turtle formation may not be diagnostic of weld formation. This mechanism may also give rise to salt-cored turtles that have a lens of salt trapped beneath their cores. These new findings have implications for hydrocarbon migration and trapping.
Groenewold, W.G.F.; de Bruijn, B.J.; Bilsborrow, R.
Psychosocial factors influencing behaviour play a central role in health research but seem under-explored in migration research. This is unfortunate because these factors, which include knowledge, attitudes, beliefs, intentions and personality traits, provide essential and potentially effective
Diadromous fish populations in the Pacific Northwest face challenges along their migratory routes from declining habitat quality, harvest, and barriers to longitudinal connectivity. Changes in river temperature regimes are producing an additional challenge for upstream migrating ...
Gasda, Sarah E.; Nordbotten, Jan M.; Celia, Michael A.
Long-term stabilization of injected carbon dioxide (CO 2) is an essential component of risk management for geological carbon sequestration operations. However, migration and trapping phenomena are inherently complex, involving processes that act
Alkhalifah, Tariq Ali
Most modern seismic imaging methods separate input data into parts (shot gathers). We develop a formulation that is able to incorporate all available data at once while numerically propagating the recorded multidimensional wavefield forward or backward in time. This approach has the potential for generating accurate images free of artiefacts associated with conventional approaches. We derive novel high-order partial differential equations in the source-receiver time domain. The fourth-order nature of the extrapolation in time leads to four solutions, two of which correspond to the incoming and outgoing P-waves and reduce to the zero-offset exploding-reflector solutions when the source coincides with the receiver. A challenge for implementing two-way time extrapolation is an essential singularity for horizontally travelling waves. This singularity can be avoided by limiting the range of wavenumbers treated in a spectral-based extrapolation. Using spectral methods based on the low-rank approximation of the propagation symbol, we extrapolate only the desired solutions in an accurate and efficient manner with reduced dispersion artiefacts. Applications to synthetic data demonstrate the accuracy of the new prestack modelling and migration approach.
Celia, Michael A. [Princeton Univ., NJ (United States)
This report documents the accomplishments achieved during the project titled “Model complexity and choice of model approaches for practical simulations of CO2 injection,migration, leakage and long-term fate” funded by the US Department of Energy, Office of Fossil Energy. The objective of the project was to investigate modeling approaches of various levels of complexity relevant to geologic carbon storage (GCS) modeling with the goal to establish guidelines on choice of modeling approach.
Porter, J.D.; Herbert, A.W.; Clarke, D.S.; Roe, P.; Vassilic Melling, D.; Einfeldt, B.; Mackay, R.; Glendinning, R.
The aim of this project was to improve the capability, efficiency and realism of the NAMMU and NAPSAC codes, which simulate groundwater flow and solute transport. Using NAMMU, various solution methods for non linear problems were investigated. The Broyden method gave a useful reduction in computing time and appeared robust. The relative saving obtained with this method increased with the problem size. This was also the case when parameter stepping was used. The existing empirical sorption models in NAMMU were generalized and a ternary heterogeneous ion exchange model was added. These modifications were tested and gave excellent results. The desirability of coupling NAMMU to an existing geochemical speciation code was assessed
Irion, Camila Iansen; Paredes, Bruno Diaz; Brasil, Guilherme Visconde; Cunha, Sandro Torrentes da; Paula, Luis Felipe; Carvalho, Alysson Roncally; Carvalho, Antonio Carlos Campos de; Carvalho, Adriana Bastos; Goldenberg, Regina Coeli Dos Santos
Chagas disease is a public health problem caused by infection with the protozoan Trypanosoma cruzi. There is currently no effective therapy for Chagas disease. Although there is some evidence for the beneficial effect of bone marrow-derived cells in chagasic disease, the mechanisms underlying their effects in the heart are unknown. Reports have suggested that bone marrow cells are recruited to the chagasic heart; however, studies using chimeric mouse models of chagasic cardiomyopathy are rare. The aim of this study was to investigate the migration of bone marrow cells to the heart after T. cruzi infection in a model of chagasic disease in chimeric mice. To obtain chimerical mice, wild-type (WT) C57BL6 mice were exposed to full body irradiation (7 Gy), causing bone marrow ablation. Then, bone marrow cells from green fluorescent protein (GFP)-transgenic mice were infused into the mice. Graft effectiveness was confirmed by flow cytometry. Experimental mice were divided into four groups: (i) infected chimeric (iChim) mice; (ii) infected WT (iWT) mice, both of which received 3 × 104 trypomastigotes of the Brazil strain; (iii) non-infected chimeric (Chim) mice; and (iv) non-infected WT mice. At one-month post-infection, iChim and iWT mice showed first degree atrioventricular block with decreased heart rate and treadmill exercise parameters compared to those in the non-infected groups. iChim mice showed an increase in parasitaemia, myocarditis, and the presence of amastigote nests in the heart tissue compared to iWT mice. Flow cytometry analysis did not detect haematopoietic progenitor cells in the hearts of infected mice. Furthermore, GFP+ cardiomyocytes were not detected in the tissues of chimeric mice.
Haller, Guy; Combescure, Christophe; Mamie, Chantal; Zoccatelli, Davide; Clergue, François
Several countries have developed policies that restrict or limit duration of stay, clinical privileges or the number of residency permits allocated to migrating physicians. Switzerland is currently preparing a new law limiting overall foreign immigration. The impact of such restrictive policies is currently unknown. In a case study of anaesthesia care in Switzerland we modelled, trends in the size of physicians' workforce until 2024, following the implementation of a strict quota policy for foreign medical trainees. We developed a computer-based Markov model with Monte-Carlo simulations to project, in the context of a strict quota policy for foreign trainees, supply and demand for anaesthesia positions until 2024. We used data from a cross-sectional study performed in the French- and Italian-speaking cantons of Switzerland and the Health dataset from the OECD. With 8 to 12 (95% CI 4-20) anaesthetists retiring per year, the implementation of strict quotas of foreign graduates would result in a 38% decrease in the number of anaesthetists in intermediary (senior registrars) positions by 2024. This decrease would be particularly important in district hospitals where nearly half (49%) of the non-Swiss anaesthetists are practising. Swiss graduates are unlikely to balance the shortage. Despite efforts by Swiss universities to increase the number of medical graduates, their number has dropped from 10.5 to 9.7/100 000 inhabitants between 2000 and 2012, due to the growth of the population. This case study in Latin Switzerland shows that a restrictive policy limiting foreign immigration of trainees would result in a major deficit in the number of anaesthetists available to meet population needs. These aspects should be carefully considered when countries develop restrictions and limitations of foreign immigration.
A. Townsend Peterson; Daniel A. Kluza
Large-scale assessments of the distribution and diversity of birds have been challenged by the need for a robust methodology for summarizing or predicting species' geographic distributions (e.g. Beard et al. 1999, Manel et al. 1999, Saveraid et al. 2001). Methodologies used in such studies have at times been inappropriate, or even more frequently limited in their...
Layton, Elivia; McNamar, Rachel; Hasanjee, Aamr M.; McNair, Cayman; Stevens, Brianna; Vaughan, Melville; Zhou, Feifan; Chen, Wei R.
Non-invasive laser immunotherapy (NLIT) is a viable alternative to traditional cancer treatment because it combines the photothermal and immunological effects of non-invasive laser irradiation and single-walled carbon nanotubes (SWNT) with an immunoadjuvant, glycated chitosan (GC). This combination forms SWNT-GC, a photosensitive immunoadjuvant, which creates a tumor-specific immunity that targets both the primary tumor and any metastasis. It is known that NLIT induces anti-tumor as well as anti-metastatic immune responses, but its immunological mechanism is not clear. The objective of this study is to clarify the role of SWNT-GC in cancer cell migration. Panc02 (non-metastatic) and Panc02-H7 (metastatic) pancreatic cancer cells were used in two-dimensional elastomer plug assays to observe the restriction of cell migration induced by SWNT, GC, and SWNT-GC individually. To replicate a three-dimensional in vivo study, a similar assay was repeated using embedded collagen lattices. Both the 2D and the 3D studies confirmed previous results indicating that GC inhibits cancer cell motility. The 2D and 3D studies also showed that SWNT-GC inhibited the migration of cancer cells, but a discrepancy was observed regarding the effect of SWNT alone. The 2D model concluded that SWNT inhibited migration while the 3D model determined that SWNT promoted migration. The results of this study will guide future work to determine the mechanism behind NLIT, including how metastases are eradicated and how the tumor specific immunity is created.
Kwon, Chang-Il; Kim, Gwangil; Jeong, Seok; Lee, Don Haeng; Kim, Kyoung Ah; Ko, Kwang Hyun; Cho, Joo Young; Hong, Sung Pyo
In research and development of biliary plastic stents (PS), continuous efforts have been made to overcome short patency time and high rate of migration. The aim of this study was to evaluate the patency and migration rate of different PS shapes for a given period of time. Using an in vitro bile phantom model, we compared the patency among different shapes of PS (three straight PS, four double-pigtail PS, and a new screw-shaped PS). We performed an analysis of the degree of luminal narrowing by light microscopic examination. Using an in vivo swine model, we compared the patency and migration rate among the three different types of PS. Eight weeks after the bile exposure in the bile flow phantom model, 80 PS were retrieved and analyzed. The straight PS showed less biofilm formation and luminal narrowing than other types of PS (p stent migration occurred less frequently in the double-pigtail PS and the screw-shaped PS than it did in the straight PS (11.1, 10, and 27.3%, respectively). However, there was no statistical difference in stent patency among the different shapes. Stent patency may not be significantly different depending on the shape of PS for 8 weeks. The screw-shaped PS showed similar patency and migration rate to the double-pigtail PS. These results may help guiding future PS development and clinical decisions.
Samsudin, Hayati; Auras, Rafael; Burgess, Gary; Dolan, Kirk; Soto-Valdez, Herlinda
A two-step solution based on the boundary conditions of Crank's equations for mass transfer in a film was developed. Three driving factors, the diffusion (D), partition (K p,f ) and convective mass transfer coefficients (h), govern the sorption and/or desorption kinetics of migrants from polymer films. These three parameters were simultaneously estimated. They provide in-depth insight into the physics of a migration process. The first step was used to find the combination of D, K p,f and h that minimized the sums of squared errors (SSE) between the predicted and actual results. In step 2, an ordinary least square (OLS) estimation was performed by using the proposed analytical solution containing D, K p,f and h. Three selected migration studies of PLA/antioxidant-based films were used to demonstrate the use of this two-step solution. Additional parameter estimation approaches such as sequential and bootstrap were also performed to acquire a better knowledge about the kinetics of migration. The proposed model successfully provided the initial guesses for D, K p,f and h. The h value was determined without performing a specific experiment for it. By determining h together with D, under or overestimation issues pertaining to a migration process can be avoided since these two parameters are correlated. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Travis W Horton
Full Text Available To compensate for drift, an animal migrating through air or sea must be able to navigate. Although some species of bird, fish, insect, mammal, and reptile are capable of drift compensation, our understanding of the spatial reference frame, and associated coordinate space, in which these navigational behaviors occur remains limited. Using high resolution satellite-monitored GPS track data, we show that juvenile ospreys (Pandion haliaetus are capable of non-stop constant course movements over open ocean spanning distances in excess of 1500 km despite the perturbing effects of winds and the lack of obvious landmarks. These results are best explained by extreme navigational precision in an exogenous spatio-temporal reference frame, such as positional orientation relative to Earth's magnetic field and pacing relative to an exogenous mechanism of keeping time. Given the age (<1 year-old of these birds and knowledge of their hatching site locations, we were able to transform Enhanced Magnetic Model coordinate locations such that the origin of the magnetic coordinate space corresponded with each bird's nest. Our analyses show that trans-oceanic juvenile osprey movements are consistent with bicoordinate positional orientation in transformed magnetic coordinate or geographic space. Through integration of movement and meteorological data, we propose a new theoretical framework, chord and clock navigation, capable of explaining the precise spatial orientation and temporal pacing performed by juvenile ospreys during their long-distance migrations over open ocean.
A study of the migration of fourth stage larvae of the parasite Strongylus vulgaris in the intestinal arteries of the horse is presented. It is established, that the larvae migrate along the arteries in almost straight lines. It is suggested that this is primarily due to their ability to sense the curvature of the vessel wall, and not, as might have been expected, because of an ability to sense the direction of blood flow. A larva will sometimes alter its direction of motion when encountering a small off-branching artery. This behaviour suggests, that the migration of S. vulgaris larvae can be modeled as a one-dimensional discrete random walk on a long time scale. This model is simpler than any deterministic model and, in particular, does not require the existence of a predilection site. The available data is not, however, sufficient for a convincing, quantitative test of the model. The proposed reluctance of the larvae to bend into off-branching arteries is used to explain the crowding of larvae in the cranial mesenteric artery.
Full Text Available The number of wind farms operating in the Isthmus of Tehuantepec, southern Mexico, has rapidly increased in recent years; yet, this region serves as a major migration route for various soaring birds, including Turkey Vultures (Cathartes aura and Swainson's Hawks (Buteo swainsoni. We analyzed the flight trajectories of soaring migrant birds passing the La Venta II wind farm during the two migratory seasons of 2011, to determine whether an avoidance pattern existed or not. We recorded three polar coordinates for the flight path of migrating soaring birds that were detected using marine radar, plotted the flight trajectories and estimated the number of trajectories that intersected the polygon defined by the wind turbines of La Venta II. Finally, we estimated the actual number of intersections per kilometer and compared this value with the null distributions obtained by running 10,000 simulations of our datasets. The observed number of intersections per kilometer fell within or beyond the lower end of the null distributions in the five models proposed for the fall season and in three of the four models proposed for the spring season. Flight trajectories had a non-random distribution around La Venta II, suggesting a strong avoidance pattern during fall and a possible avoidance pattern during spring. We suggest that a nearby ridgeline plays an important role in this pattern, an issue that may be incorporated into strategies to minimize the potential negative impacts of future wind farms on soaring birds. Studies evaluating these issues in the Isthmus of Tehuantepec have not been previously published; hence this work contributes important baseline information about the movement patterns of soaring birds and its relationship to wind farms in the region.
Villegas-Patraca, Rafael; Cabrera-Cruz, Sergio A; Herrera-Alsina, Leonel
The number of wind farms operating in the Isthmus of Tehuantepec, southern Mexico, has rapidly increased in recent years; yet, this region serves as a major migration route for various soaring birds, including Turkey Vultures (Cathartes aura) and Swainson's Hawks (Buteo swainsoni). We analyzed the flight trajectories of soaring migrant birds passing the La Venta II wind farm during the two migratory seasons of 2011, to determine whether an avoidance pattern existed or not. We recorded three polar coordinates for the flight path of migrating soaring birds that were detected using marine radar, plotted the flight trajectories and estimated the number of trajectories that intersected the polygon defined by the wind turbines of La Venta II. Finally, we estimated the actual number of intersections per kilometer and compared this value with the null distributions obtained by running 10,000 simulations of our datasets. The observed number of intersections per kilometer fell within or beyond the lower end of the null distributions in the five models proposed for the fall season and in three of the four models proposed for the spring season. Flight trajectories had a non-random distribution around La Venta II, suggesting a strong avoidance pattern during fall and a possible avoidance pattern during spring. We suggest that a nearby ridgeline plays an important role in this pattern, an issue that may be incorporated into strategies to minimize the potential negative impacts of future wind farms on soaring birds. Studies evaluating these issues in the Isthmus of Tehuantepec have not been previously published; hence this work contributes important baseline information about the movement patterns of soaring birds and its relationship to wind farms in the region.
Villegas-Patraca, Rafael; Cabrera-Cruz, Sergio A.; Herrera-Alsina, Leonel
The number of wind farms operating in the Isthmus of Tehuantepec, southern Mexico, has rapidly increased in recent years; yet, this region serves as a major migration route for various soaring birds, including Turkey Vultures (Cathartes aura) and Swainson's Hawks (Buteo swainsoni). We analyzed the flight trajectories of soaring migrant birds passing the La Venta II wind farm during the two migratory seasons of 2011, to determine whether an avoidance pattern existed or not. We recorded three polar coordinates for the flight path of migrating soaring birds that were detected using marine radar, plotted the flight trajectories and estimated the number of trajectories that intersected the polygon defined by the wind turbines of La Venta II. Finally, we estimated the actual number of intersections per kilometer and compared this value with the null distributions obtained by running 10,000 simulations of our datasets. The observed number of intersections per kilometer fell within or beyond the lower end of the null distributions in the five models proposed for the fall season and in three of the four models proposed for the spring season. Flight trajectories had a non-random distribution around La Venta II, suggesting a strong avoidance pattern during fall and a possible avoidance pattern during spring. We suggest that a nearby ridgeline plays an important role in this pattern, an issue that may be incorporated into strategies to minimize the potential negative impacts of future wind farms on soaring birds. Studies evaluating these issues in the Isthmus of Tehuantepec have not been previously published; hence this work contributes important baseline information about the movement patterns of soaring birds and its relationship to wind farms in the region. PMID:24647442
Manasse, Paolo; Schultz, Christian
We study a model with free migration between a rich and a poor region. Since there is congestion, the rich region has an incentive to give the poor region a transfer in order to reduce immigration. Faced with free migration, the rich region voluntarily chooses a transfer, which turns out...... to be equal to that a social planner would choose. Provided migration occurs in equilibrium, this conclusion holds even in the presence of moderate mobility costs. However, large migration costs will lead to suboptimal transfers in the market solution...
Fontanari, José F; Serva, Maurizio
The compartmentalization of distinct templates in protocells and the exchange of templates between them (migration) are key elements of a modern scenario for prebiotic evolution. Here we use the diffusion approximation of population genetics to study analytically the steady-state properties of such a prebiotic scenario. The coexistence of distinct template types inside a protocell is achieved by a selective pressure at the protocell level (group selection) favoring protocells with a mixed template composition. In the degenerate case, where the templates have the same replication rate, we find that a vanishingly small migration rate suffices to eliminate the segregation effect of random drift and so to promote coexistence. In the nondegenerate case, a small migration rate greatly boosts coexistence as compared with the situation where there is no migration. However, increase of the migration rate beyond a critical value leads to the complete dominance of the more efficient template type (homogeneous regime). In this case, we find a continuous phase transition separating the homogeneous and the coexistence regimes, with the order parameter vanishing linearly with the distance to the transition point.
Through research in old mythological narrations, and literary texts, one could assume an intrinsic relationship between music and such sweet-singing mythological birds as phoenix, sphinx, Song-song, holy birds like Kership-tah, and other birds including swan and ring dove.
... your pet’s health Visit a veterinarian who has experience with pet birds for routine check-ups to keep your bird healthy and prevent infectious diseases. If your bird becomes sick or dies within a month after purchase or adoption: Contact your veterinarian. Inform the pet ...
National Audubon Society, New York, NY.
Included are a student reader, "The Story of Birds," a leaders' guide, a large colored Audubon bird chart, and a separate guide for the chart. The student reader is divided into eleven sections which relate to the various physical and behavioral features of birds such as feathers, feeding habits as related to the shape of bills and feet, nests,…
Knat'ko, B.A.; Skomorokhov, A.G.
The method of calculation of migration of radionuclides in soil according to compartment model and based on analitical solution of the system of differential equations of the model is proposed. Calculations of the content of radionuclides in the soil layer for Cs-137 and Sr-90 for four types of soil for the periods of 0, 21, 34,46 and 73 months are carried out. Calculations were done for three upper soil layers 0-2.5, 2.5-5, 5.0-15.0 cm, which give the main contribution into transport of radionuclides into plants on meadows and pastures. Such method increases precision of calculations of cesium-137 and strontium-90 migration in comparison with the prosedure, which uses the system of finite difference equations. 6 refs., 1 fig
Lyons, James E.; Winn, Bradford; Keyes, Timothy; Kalasz, Kevin S.
Red knots (Calidris canutus rufa) have 3 distinct nonbreeding regions: 1 in the southeastern United States and Caribbean, another on the northeast coast of Brazil in the Maranhão region, and a third along the Patagonian coasts of Chile and Argentina. Effective conservation and recovery of this threatened long-distance migrant will require knowledge of population structure, migration ecology, and abundance and distribution throughout the annual cycle. We conducted a stopover population and biogeographic assessment of knots at the Altamaha River Delta, Georgia, an important stopover area in the southeastern United States. We estimated stopover population size and stopover duration during post-breeding migration in 2011 at the Altamaha study area using mark-resight data, and we inferred nonbreeding regions for this stopover population using stable isotope ratios of carbon and nitrogen in feathers, and observations (sightings and captures) during boreal winter from across the hemisphere. With an integrated Bayesian analysis of all these data, we also estimated the number of birds in the southeastern United States and northern Brazil during boreal winter. For mark-resight analyses in Georgia, we made observations of marked individuals during 14 weeks from early August to early November 2011 and detected 814 individually marked birds. We used the Jolly-Seber mark-recapture model and estimated the southbound passage population at approximately 23,400 red knots. In ongoing studies elsewhere, isotope samples were collected from 175 (21%) of the 814 birds detected in our study, and ≥1 sighting or capture record during boreal winter was located in data repositories for 659 birds (81%). Isotopic signatures and boreal winter records indicate that the majority (82–96%) of the birds that stopped at the Altamaha Delta spend the boreal winter in the northern part of the nonbreeding range (southeast USA, Caribbean, and northern Brazil). Knots migrating to the southeastern
Santofimia, M.J.; Zhao, L.; Sietsma, J.
The interaction between carbon partitioning from martensite to austenite and interface migration during annealing of martensite-austenite microstructures is modeled, assuming the same chemical potential of carbon in martensite and austenite at the interface and allowing the motion of the phase interface when a free-energy difference occurs. The simulations show that the motion of the martensite-austenite interface can be significant and can takes place in either direction
Full Text Available The debate on the causes of conflict in human societies has deep roots. In particular, the extent of conflict in hunter-gatherer groups remains unclear. Some authors suggest that large-scale violence only arose with the spreading of agriculture and the building of complex societies. To shed light on this issue, we developed a model based on operatorial techniques simulating population-resource dynamics within a two-dimensional lattice, with humans and natural resources interacting in each cell of the lattice. The model outcomes under different conditions were compared with recently available demographic data for prehistoric South America. Only under conditions that include migration among cells and conflict was the model able to consistently reproduce the empirical data at a continental scale. We argue that the interplay between resource competition, migration, and conflict drove the population dynamics of South America after the colonization phase and before the introduction of agriculture. The relation between population and resources indeed emerged as a key factor leading to migration and conflict once the carrying capacity of the environment has been reached.
Magalhaes, Marcia Santos de Almeida
The secondary migration of petroleum is analyzed in this study from a compositional perspective, with phase separation, using a numerical simulator. The modeling is focused on two different geologic scenarios, where migration occurs along the formation rocks or through a fault. Each scenario is initialized with a single-phase hydrocarbon bank, with mixtures defined in the oil and gas zones and in the proximity of the critical point in their respective phase envelopes. These fluids are obtained using a PVT simulator based on four samples (Black-oil, volatile oil and two retrograde gases) which generate various hydrocarbon mixtures from which some are selected to meet the pressure and temperature conditions established for the models. The results obtained indicate that the phase separation process, the migration and the oil and gas differences are adequately represented, and that this type of modeling may be used to explain complex fluid distribution in a single accumulation or petroleum province. However, the analysis of post-filling processes indicate the need for the inclusion of a diffusive term in the flow equations used in the simulator and for a higher precision in the fluid properties outputs. (author)
van Dam, L.; Kincaid, C. R.; Pockalny, R. A.; Sylvia, R. T.; Hall, P. S.
Lateral migration of mid-ocean ridge spreading centers is a well-documented phenomenon leading to asymmetric melt production and the surficial expressions thereof. This form of plate motion has been difficult to incorporate into both numerical and analogue geodynamical models, and consequently, current estimates of time-dependent flow, material transport, and melting in the mantle beneath ridges are lacking. To address this, we have designed and built an innovative research apparatus that allows for precise and repeatable simulations of mid-ocean ridge spreading and migration. Three pairs of counter-rotating belts with adjustable lateral orientations are scaled to simulate spreading at, and flow beneath, three 600km wide ridge segments with up to 300km transform offsets. This apparatus is attached to a drive system that allows us to test a full range of axis-parallel to axis-normal migration directions, and is suspended above a reservoir of viscous glucose syrup, a scaled analogue for the upper mantle, and neutrally buoyant tracers. We image plate-driven flow in the syrup with high-resolution digital cameras and use particle image velocimetry methods to obtain information about transport pathlines and flow-induced anisotropy. Suites of experiments are run with and without ridge migration to determine the overall significance of migration on spatial and temporal characteristics of shallow mantle flow. Our experiments cover an expansive parameter space by including various spreading rates, migration speeds and directions, degrees of spreading asymmetry, transform-offset lengths, and upper mantle viscosity conditions. Preliminary results highlight the importance of modeling migratory plate forces. Mantle material exhibits a significant degree of lateral transport, particularly between ridge segments and towards the melt triangle. Magma supply to the melting region is highly complex; parcels of material do not necessarily move along fixed streamlines, rather, they can