WorldWideScience

Sample records for biosphere model parameters

  1. Agricultural and Environmental Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    K. Rasmuson; K. Rautenstrauch

    2004-01-01

    This analysis is one of 10 technical reports that support the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain Nevada (ERMYN) (i.e., the biosphere model). It documents development of agricultural and environmental input parameters for the biosphere model, and supports the use of the model to develop biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs). The biosphere model is one of a series of process models supporting the total system performance assessment (TSPA) for the repository at Yucca Mountain. The ERMYN provides the TSPA with the capability to perform dose assessments. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows the interrelationships between the major activities and their products (the analysis and model reports) that were planned in ''Technical Work Plan for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169573]). The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169460]) describes the ERMYN and its input parameters

  2. Environmental Transport Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    M. Wasiolek

    2004-01-01

    This analysis report is one of the technical reports documenting the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain, Nevada (ERMYN), a biosphere model supporting the total system performance assessment for the license application (TSPA-LA) for the geologic repository at Yucca Mountain. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows relationships among the reports developed for biosphere modeling and biosphere abstraction products for the TSPA-LA, as identified in the ''Technical Work Plan for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169573]) (TWP). This figure provides an understanding of how this report contributes to biosphere modeling in support of the license application (LA). This report is one of the five reports that develop input parameter values for the biosphere model. The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169460]) describes the conceptual model and the mathematical model. The input parameter reports, shown to the right of the Biosphere Model Report in Figure 1-1, contain detailed description of the model input parameters. The output of this report is used as direct input in the ''Nominal Performance Biosphere Dose Conversion Factor Analysis'' and in the ''Disruptive Event Biosphere Dose Conversion Factor Analysis'' that calculate the values of biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs) for the groundwater and volcanic ash exposure scenarios, respectively. The purpose of this analysis was to develop biosphere model parameter values related to radionuclide transport and accumulation in the environment. These parameters support calculations of radionuclide concentrations in the environmental media (e.g., soil, crops, animal products, and air) resulting from a given radionuclide concentration at the source of contamination (i.e., either in groundwater or in volcanic ash). The analysis was performed in accordance with the TWP (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169573])

  3. Environmental Transport Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    M. Wasiolek

    2004-09-10

    This analysis report is one of the technical reports documenting the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain, Nevada (ERMYN), a biosphere model supporting the total system performance assessment for the license application (TSPA-LA) for the geologic repository at Yucca Mountain. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows relationships among the reports developed for biosphere modeling and biosphere abstraction products for the TSPA-LA, as identified in the ''Technical Work Plan for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169573]) (TWP). This figure provides an understanding of how this report contributes to biosphere modeling in support of the license application (LA). This report is one of the five reports that develop input parameter values for the biosphere model. The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169460]) describes the conceptual model and the mathematical model. The input parameter reports, shown to the right of the Biosphere Model Report in Figure 1-1, contain detailed description of the model input parameters. The output of this report is used as direct input in the ''Nominal Performance Biosphere Dose Conversion Factor Analysis'' and in the ''Disruptive Event Biosphere Dose Conversion Factor Analysis'' that calculate the values of biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs) for the groundwater and volcanic ash exposure scenarios, respectively. The purpose of this analysis was to develop biosphere model parameter values related to radionuclide transport and accumulation in the environment. These parameters support calculations of radionuclide concentrations in the environmental media (e.g., soil, crops, animal products, and air) resulting from a given radionuclide concentration at the source of contamination (i.e., either in groundwater or in volcanic ash). The analysis

  4. Inhalation Exposure Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    K. Rautenstrauch

    2004-01-01

    This analysis is one of 10 reports that support the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain, Nevada (ERMYN) biosphere model. The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169460]) describes in detail the conceptual model as well as the mathematical model and its input parameters. This report documents development of input parameters for the biosphere model that are related to atmospheric mass loading and supports the use of the model to develop biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs). The biosphere model is one of a series of process models supporting the total system performance assessment (TSPA) for a Yucca Mountain repository. Inhalation Exposure Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model is one of five reports that develop input parameters for the biosphere model. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows the interrelationships among the products (i.e., analysis and model reports) developed for biosphere modeling, and the plan for development of the biosphere abstraction products for TSPA, as identified in the Technical Work Plan for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169573]). This analysis report defines and justifies values of mass loading for the biosphere model. Mass loading is the total mass concentration of resuspended particles (e.g., dust, ash) in a volume of air. Mass loading values are used in the air submodel of ERMYN to calculate concentrations of radionuclides in air inhaled by a receptor and concentrations in air surrounding crops. Concentrations in air to which the receptor is exposed are then used in the inhalation submodel to calculate the dose contribution to the receptor from inhalation of contaminated airborne particles. Concentrations in air surrounding plants are used in the plant submodel to calculate the concentrations of radionuclides in foodstuffs contributed from uptake by foliar interception

  5. Inhalation Exposure Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    K. Rautenstrauch

    2004-09-10

    This analysis is one of 10 reports that support the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain, Nevada (ERMYN) biosphere model. The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169460]) describes in detail the conceptual model as well as the mathematical model and its input parameters. This report documents development of input parameters for the biosphere model that are related to atmospheric mass loading and supports the use of the model to develop biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs). The biosphere model is one of a series of process models supporting the total system performance assessment (TSPA) for a Yucca Mountain repository. Inhalation Exposure Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model is one of five reports that develop input parameters for the biosphere model. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows the interrelationships among the products (i.e., analysis and model reports) developed for biosphere modeling, and the plan for development of the biosphere abstraction products for TSPA, as identified in the Technical Work Plan for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169573]). This analysis report defines and justifies values of mass loading for the biosphere model. Mass loading is the total mass concentration of resuspended particles (e.g., dust, ash) in a volume of air. Mass loading values are used in the air submodel of ERMYN to calculate concentrations of radionuclides in air inhaled by a receptor and concentrations in air surrounding crops. Concentrations in air to which the receptor is exposed are then used in the inhalation submodel to calculate the dose contribution to the receptor from inhalation of contaminated airborne particles. Concentrations in air surrounding plants are used in the plant submodel to calculate the concentrations of radionuclides in foodstuffs contributed from uptake by foliar interception.

  6. Agricultural and Environmental Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kaylie Rasmuson; Kurt Rautenstrauch

    2003-06-20

    This analysis is one of nine technical reports that support the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain Nevada (ERMYN) biosphere model. It documents input parameters for the biosphere model, and supports the use of the model to develop Biosphere Dose Conversion Factors (BDCF). The biosphere model is one of a series of process models supporting the Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) for the repository at Yucca Mountain. The ERMYN provides the TSPA with the capability to perform dose assessments. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows the interrelationships between the major activities and their products (the analysis and model reports) that were planned in the biosphere Technical Work Plan (TWP, BSC 2003a). It should be noted that some documents identified in Figure 1-1 may be under development and therefore not available at the time this document is issued. The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2003b) describes the ERMYN and its input parameters. This analysis report, ANL-MGR-MD-000006, ''Agricultural and Environmental Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model'', is one of the five reports that develop input parameters for the biosphere model. This report defines and justifies values for twelve parameters required in the biosphere model. These parameters are related to use of contaminated groundwater to grow crops. The parameter values recommended in this report are used in the soil, plant, and carbon-14 submodels of the ERMYN.

  7. Inhalation Exposure Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    M. Wasiolek

    2006-01-01

    This analysis is one of the technical reports that support the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain, Nevada (ERMYN), referred to in this report as the biosphere model. ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169460]) describes in detail the conceptual model as well as the mathematical model and its input parameters. This report documents development of input parameters for the biosphere model that are related to atmospheric mass loading and supports the use of the model to develop biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs). The biosphere model is one of a series of process models supporting the total system performance assessment (TSPA) for a Yucca Mountain repository. ''Inhalation Exposure Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model'' is one of five reports that develop input parameters for the biosphere model. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the biosphere model is presented in Figure 1-1 (based on BSC 2006 [DIRS 176938]). This figure shows the interrelationships among the products (i.e., analysis and model reports) developed for biosphere modeling and how this analysis report contributes to biosphere modeling. This analysis report defines and justifies values of atmospheric mass loading for the biosphere model. Mass loading is the total mass concentration of resuspended particles (e.g., dust, ash) in a volume of air. Mass loading values are used in the air submodel of the biosphere model to calculate concentrations of radionuclides in air inhaled by a receptor and concentrations in air surrounding crops. Concentrations in air to which the receptor is exposed are then used in the inhalation submodel to calculate the dose contribution to the receptor from inhalation of contaminated airborne particles. Concentrations in air surrounding plants are used in the plant submodel to calculate the concentrations of radionuclides in foodstuffs contributed from uptake by foliar interception. This report is concerned primarily with the

  8. Inhalation Exposure Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    M. Wasiolek

    2006-06-05

    This analysis is one of the technical reports that support the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain, Nevada (ERMYN), referred to in this report as the biosphere model. ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169460]) describes in detail the conceptual model as well as the mathematical model and its input parameters. This report documents development of input parameters for the biosphere model that are related to atmospheric mass loading and supports the use of the model to develop biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs). The biosphere model is one of a series of process models supporting the total system performance assessment (TSPA) for a Yucca Mountain repository. ''Inhalation Exposure Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model'' is one of five reports that develop input parameters for the biosphere model. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the biosphere model is presented in Figure 1-1 (based on BSC 2006 [DIRS 176938]). This figure shows the interrelationships among the products (i.e., analysis and model reports) developed for biosphere modeling and how this analysis report contributes to biosphere modeling. This analysis report defines and justifies values of atmospheric mass loading for the biosphere model. Mass loading is the total mass concentration of resuspended particles (e.g., dust, ash) in a volume of air. Mass loading values are used in the air submodel of the biosphere model to calculate concentrations of radionuclides in air inhaled by a receptor and concentrations in air surrounding crops. Concentrations in air to which the receptor is exposed are then used in the inhalation submodel to calculate the dose contribution to the receptor from inhalation of contaminated airborne particles. Concentrations in air surrounding plants are used in the plant submodel to calculate the concentrations of radionuclides in foodstuffs contributed from uptake by foliar interception. This

  9. Soil-related Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A. J. Smith

    2003-01-01

    This analysis is one of the technical reports containing documentation of the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain Nevada (ERMYN), a biosphere model supporting the Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) for the geologic repository at Yucca Mountain. The biosphere model is one of a series of process models supporting the Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) for the Yucca Mountain repository. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN biosphere model is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows the interrelationships among the products (i.e., analysis and model reports) developed for biosphere modeling, and the plan for development of the biosphere abstraction products for TSPA, as identified in the ''Technical Work Plan: for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support'' (BSC 2003 [163602]). It should be noted that some documents identified in Figure 1-1 may be under development at the time this report is issued and therefore not available. This figure is included to provide an understanding of how this analysis report contributes to biosphere modeling in support of the license application, and is not intended to imply that access to the listed documents is required to understand the contents of this report. This report, ''Soil Related Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model'', is one of the five analysis reports that develop input parameters for use in the ERMYN model. This report is the source documentation for the six biosphere parameters identified in Table 1-1. ''The Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2003 [160699]) describes in detail the conceptual model as well as the mathematical model and its input parameters. The purpose of this analysis was to develop the biosphere model parameters needed to evaluate doses from pathways associated with the accumulation and depletion of radionuclides in the soil. These parameters support the calculation of radionuclide concentrations in soil from on-going irrigation and ash

  10. Environmental Transport Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wasiolek, M. A.

    2003-01-01

    This analysis report is one of the technical reports documenting the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain Nevada (ERMYN), a biosphere model supporting the total system performance assessment (TSPA) for the geologic repository at Yucca Mountain. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows relationships among the reports developed for biosphere modeling and biosphere abstraction products for the TSPA, as identified in the ''Technical Work Plan: for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support'' (TWP) (BSC 2003 [163602]). Some documents in Figure 1-1 may be under development and not available when this report is issued. This figure provides an understanding of how this report contributes to biosphere modeling in support of the license application (LA), but access to the listed documents is not required to understand the contents of this report. This report is one of the reports that develops input parameter values for the biosphere model. The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2003 [160699]) describes the conceptual model, the mathematical model, and the input parameters. The purpose of this analysis is to develop biosphere model parameter values related to radionuclide transport and accumulation in the environment. These parameters support calculations of radionuclide concentrations in the environmental media (e.g., soil, crops, animal products, and air) resulting from a given radionuclide concentration at the source of contamination (i.e., either in groundwater or volcanic ash). The analysis was performed in accordance with the TWP (BSC 2003 [163602]). This analysis develops values of parameters associated with many features, events, and processes (FEPs) applicable to the reference biosphere (DTN: M00303SEPFEPS2.000 [162452]), which are addressed in the biosphere model (BSC 2003 [160699]). The treatment of these FEPs is described in BSC (2003 [160699], Section 6.2). Parameter values

  11. Environmental Transport Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    M. A. Wasiolek

    2003-06-27

    This analysis report is one of the technical reports documenting the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain Nevada (ERMYN), a biosphere model supporting the total system performance assessment (TSPA) for the geologic repository at Yucca Mountain. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows relationships among the reports developed for biosphere modeling and biosphere abstraction products for the TSPA, as identified in the ''Technical Work Plan: for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support'' (TWP) (BSC 2003 [163602]). Some documents in Figure 1-1 may be under development and not available when this report is issued. This figure provides an understanding of how this report contributes to biosphere modeling in support of the license application (LA), but access to the listed documents is not required to understand the contents of this report. This report is one of the reports that develops input parameter values for the biosphere model. The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2003 [160699]) describes the conceptual model, the mathematical model, and the input parameters. The purpose of this analysis is to develop biosphere model parameter values related to radionuclide transport and accumulation in the environment. These parameters support calculations of radionuclide concentrations in the environmental media (e.g., soil, crops, animal products, and air) resulting from a given radionuclide concentration at the source of contamination (i.e., either in groundwater or volcanic ash). The analysis was performed in accordance with the TWP (BSC 2003 [163602]). This analysis develops values of parameters associated with many features, events, and processes (FEPs) applicable to the reference biosphere (DTN: M00303SEPFEPS2.000 [162452]), which are addressed in the biosphere model (BSC 2003 [160699]). The treatment of these FEPs is described in BSC (2003 [160699

  12. Inhalation Exposure Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    M. A. Wasiolek

    2003-01-01

    This analysis is one of the nine reports that support the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain Nevada (ERMYN) biosphere model. The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2003a) describes in detail the conceptual model as well as the mathematical model and its input parameters. This report documents a set of input parameters for the biosphere model, and supports the use of the model to develop biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs). The biosphere model is one of a series of process models supporting the Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) for a Yucca Mountain repository. This report, ''Inhalation Exposure Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model'', is one of the five reports that develop input parameters for the biosphere model. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows the interrelationships among the products (i.e., analysis and model reports) developed for biosphere modeling, and the plan for development of the biosphere abstraction products for TSPA, as identified in the ''Technical Work Plan: for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support'' (BSC 2003b). It should be noted that some documents identified in Figure 1-1 may be under development at the time this report is issued and therefore not available at that time. This figure is included to provide an understanding of how this analysis report contributes to biosphere modeling in support of the license application, and is not intended to imply that access to the listed documents is required to understand the contents of this analysis report. This analysis report defines and justifies values of mass loading, which is the total mass concentration of resuspended particles (e.g., dust, ash) in a volume of air. Measurements of mass loading are used in the air submodel of ERMYN to calculate concentrations of radionuclides in air surrounding crops and concentrations in air inhaled by a receptor. Concentrations in air to which the

  13. Inhalation Exposure Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    M. A. Wasiolek

    2003-09-24

    This analysis is one of the nine reports that support the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain Nevada (ERMYN) biosphere model. The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2003a) describes in detail the conceptual model as well as the mathematical model and its input parameters. This report documents a set of input parameters for the biosphere model, and supports the use of the model to develop biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs). The biosphere model is one of a series of process models supporting the Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) for a Yucca Mountain repository. This report, ''Inhalation Exposure Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model'', is one of the five reports that develop input parameters for the biosphere model. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows the interrelationships among the products (i.e., analysis and model reports) developed for biosphere modeling, and the plan for development of the biosphere abstraction products for TSPA, as identified in the ''Technical Work Plan: for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support'' (BSC 2003b). It should be noted that some documents identified in Figure 1-1 may be under development at the time this report is issued and therefore not available at that time. This figure is included to provide an understanding of how this analysis report contributes to biosphere modeling in support of the license application, and is not intended to imply that access to the listed documents is required to understand the contents of this analysis report. This analysis report defines and justifies values of mass loading, which is the total mass concentration of resuspended particles (e.g., dust, ash) in a volume of air. Measurements of mass loading are used in the air submodel of ERMYN to calculate concentrations of radionuclides in air surrounding crops and concentrations in air

  14. Agricultural and Environmental Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    K. Rasmuson; K. Rautenstrauch

    2004-09-14

    This analysis is one of 10 technical reports that support the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain Nevada (ERMYN) (i.e., the biosphere model). It documents development of agricultural and environmental input parameters for the biosphere model, and supports the use of the model to develop biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs). The biosphere model is one of a series of process models supporting the total system performance assessment (TSPA) for the repository at Yucca Mountain. The ERMYN provides the TSPA with the capability to perform dose assessments. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows the interrelationships between the major activities and their products (the analysis and model reports) that were planned in ''Technical Work Plan for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169573]). The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169460]) describes the ERMYN and its input parameters.

  15. Soil-Related Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, A. J.

    2004-01-01

    This report presents one of the analyses that support the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain Nevada (ERMYN). The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169460]) describes the details of the conceptual model as well as the mathematical model and the required input parameters. The biosphere model is one of a series of process models supporting the postclosure Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) for the Yucca Mountain repository. A schematic representation of the documentation flow for the Biosphere input to TSPA is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows the evolutionary relationships among the products (i.e., analysis and model reports) developed for biosphere modeling, and the biosphere abstraction products for TSPA, as identified in the ''Technical Work Plan for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support'' (TWP) (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169573]). This figure is included to provide an understanding of how this analysis report contributes to biosphere modeling in support of the license application, and is not intended to imply that access to the listed documents is required to understand the contents of this report. This report, ''Soil-Related Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model'', is one of the five analysis reports that develop input parameters for use in the ERMYN model. This report is the source documentation for the six biosphere parameters identified in Table 1-1. The purpose of this analysis was to develop the biosphere model parameters associated with the accumulation and depletion of radionuclides in the soil. These parameters support the calculation of radionuclide concentrations in soil from on-going irrigation or ash deposition and, as a direct consequence, radionuclide concentration in other environmental media that are affected by radionuclide concentrations in soil. The analysis was performed in accordance with the TWP (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169573]) where the governing procedure was defined as AP-SIII.9Q, ''Scientific Analyses''. This

  16. Soil-Related Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    A. J. Smith

    2004-09-09

    This report presents one of the analyses that support the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain Nevada (ERMYN). The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169460]) describes the details of the conceptual model as well as the mathematical model and the required input parameters. The biosphere model is one of a series of process models supporting the postclosure Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) for the Yucca Mountain repository. A schematic representation of the documentation flow for the Biosphere input to TSPA is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows the evolutionary relationships among the products (i.e., analysis and model reports) developed for biosphere modeling, and the biosphere abstraction products for TSPA, as identified in the ''Technical Work Plan for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support'' (TWP) (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169573]). This figure is included to provide an understanding of how this analysis report contributes to biosphere modeling in support of the license application, and is not intended to imply that access to the listed documents is required to understand the contents of this report. This report, ''Soil-Related Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model'', is one of the five analysis reports that develop input parameters for use in the ERMYN model. This report is the source documentation for the six biosphere parameters identified in Table 1-1. The purpose of this analysis was to develop the biosphere model parameters associated with the accumulation and depletion of radionuclides in the soil. These parameters support the calculation of radionuclide concentrations in soil from on-going irrigation or ash deposition and, as a direct consequence, radionuclide concentration in other environmental media that are affected by radionuclide concentrations in soil. The analysis was performed in accordance with the TWP (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169573]) where the governing procedure

  17. Biosphere modelling for a HLW repository - scenario and parameter variations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grogan, H.

    1985-03-01

    In Switzerland high-level radioactive wastes have been considered for disposal in deep-lying crystalline formations. The individual doses to man resulting from radionuclides entering the biosphere via groundwater transport are calculated. The main recipient area modelled, which constitutes the base case, is a broad gravel terrace sited along the south bank of the river Rhine. An alternative recipient region, a small valley with a well, is also modelled. A number of parameter variations are performed in order to ascertain their impact on the doses. Finally two scenario changes are modelled somewhat simplistically, these consider different prevailing climates, namely tundra and a warmer climate than present. In the base case negligibly low doses to man in the long term, resulting from the existence of a HLW repository have been calculated. Cs-135 results in the largest dose (8.4E-7 mrem/y at 6.1E+6 y) while Np-237 gives the largest dose from the actinides (3.6E-8 mrem/y). The response of the model to parameter variations cannot be easily predicted due to non-linear coupling of many of the parameters. However, the calculated doses were negligibly low in all cases as were those resulting from the two scenario variations. (author)

  18. Biosphere Model Report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    M. A. Wasiolek

    2003-01-01

    The purpose of this report is to document the biosphere model, the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain, Nevada (ERMYN), which describes radionuclide transport processes in the biosphere and associated human exposure that may arise as the result of radionuclide release from the geologic repository at Yucca Mountain. The biosphere model is one of the process models that support the Yucca Mountain Project (YMP) Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) for the license application (LA), the TSPA-LA. The ERMYN model provides the capability of performing human radiation dose assessments. This report documents the biosphere model, which includes: (1) Describing the reference biosphere, human receptor, exposure scenarios, and primary radionuclides for each exposure scenario (Section 6.1); (2) Developing a biosphere conceptual model using site-specific features, events, and processes (FEPs), the reference biosphere, the human receptor, and assumptions (Section 6.2 and Section 6.3); (3) Building a mathematical model using the biosphere conceptual model and published biosphere models (Sections 6.4 and 6.5); (4) Summarizing input parameters for the mathematical model, including the uncertainty associated with input values (Section 6.6); (5) Identifying improvements in the ERMYN model compared with the model used in previous biosphere modeling (Section 6.7); (6) Constructing an ERMYN implementation tool (model) based on the biosphere mathematical model using GoldSim stochastic simulation software (Sections 6.8 and 6.9); (7) Verifying the ERMYN model by comparing output from the software with hand calculations to ensure that the GoldSim implementation is correct (Section 6.10); and (8) Validating the ERMYN model by corroborating it with published biosphere models; comparing conceptual models, mathematical models, and numerical results (Section 7)

  19. Biosphere Model Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    D. W. Wu

    2003-07-16

    The purpose of this report is to document the biosphere model, the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain, Nevada (ERMYN), which describes radionuclide transport processes in the biosphere and associated human exposure that may arise as the result of radionuclide release from the geologic repository at Yucca Mountain. The biosphere model is one of the process models that support the Yucca Mountain Project (YMP) Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) for the license application (LA), the TSPA-LA. The ERMYN model provides the capability of performing human radiation dose assessments. This report documents the biosphere model, which includes: (1) Describing the reference biosphere, human receptor, exposure scenarios, and primary radionuclides for each exposure scenario (Section 6.1); (2) Developing a biosphere conceptual model using site-specific features, events, and processes (FEPs), the reference biosphere, the human receptor, and assumptions (Section 6.2 and Section 6.3); (3) Building a mathematical model using the biosphere conceptual model and published biosphere models (Sections 6.4 and 6.5); (4) Summarizing input parameters for the mathematical model, including the uncertainty associated with input values (Section 6.6); (5) Identifying improvements in the ERMYN model compared with the model used in previous biosphere modeling (Section 6.7); (6) Constructing an ERMYN implementation tool (model) based on the biosphere mathematical model using GoldSim stochastic simulation software (Sections 6.8 and 6.9); (7) Verifying the ERMYN model by comparing output from the software with hand calculations to ensure that the GoldSim implementation is correct (Section 6.10); and (8) Validating the ERMYN model by corroborating it with published biosphere models; comparing conceptual models, mathematical models, and numerical results (Section 7).

  20. Biosphere Model Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    M. A. Wasiolek

    2003-10-27

    The purpose of this report is to document the biosphere model, the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain, Nevada (ERMYN), which describes radionuclide transport processes in the biosphere and associated human exposure that may arise as the result of radionuclide release from the geologic repository at Yucca Mountain. The biosphere model is one of the process models that support the Yucca Mountain Project (YMP) Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) for the license application (LA), the TSPA-LA. The ERMYN model provides the capability of performing human radiation dose assessments. This report documents the biosphere model, which includes: (1) Describing the reference biosphere, human receptor, exposure scenarios, and primary radionuclides for each exposure scenario (Section 6.1); (2) Developing a biosphere conceptual model using site-specific features, events, and processes (FEPs), the reference biosphere, the human receptor, and assumptions (Section 6.2 and Section 6.3); (3) Building a mathematical model using the biosphere conceptual model and published biosphere models (Sections 6.4 and 6.5); (4) Summarizing input parameters for the mathematical model, including the uncertainty associated with input values (Section 6.6); (5) Identifying improvements in the ERMYN model compared with the model used in previous biosphere modeling (Section 6.7); (6) Constructing an ERMYN implementation tool (model) based on the biosphere mathematical model using GoldSim stochastic simulation software (Sections 6.8 and 6.9); (7) Verifying the ERMYN model by comparing output from the software with hand calculations to ensure that the GoldSim implementation is correct (Section 6.10); and (8) Validating the ERMYN model by corroborating it with published biosphere models; comparing conceptual models, mathematical models, and numerical results (Section 7).

  1. Biosphere Model Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    D.W. Wu; A.J. Smith

    2004-11-08

    The purpose of this report is to document the biosphere model, the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain, Nevada (ERMYN), which describes radionuclide transport processes in the biosphere and associated human exposure that may arise as the result of radionuclide release from the geologic repository at Yucca Mountain. The biosphere model is one of the process models that support the Yucca Mountain Project (YMP) Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) for the license application (LA), TSPA-LA. The ERMYN provides the capability of performing human radiation dose assessments. This report documents the biosphere model, which includes: (1) Describing the reference biosphere, human receptor, exposure scenarios, and primary radionuclides for each exposure scenario (Section 6.1); (2) Developing a biosphere conceptual model using site-specific features, events, and processes (FEPs) (Section 6.2), the reference biosphere (Section 6.1.1), the human receptor (Section 6.1.2), and approximations (Sections 6.3.1.4 and 6.3.2.4); (3) Building a mathematical model using the biosphere conceptual model (Section 6.3) and published biosphere models (Sections 6.4 and 6.5); (4) Summarizing input parameters for the mathematical model, including the uncertainty associated with input values (Section 6.6); (5) Identifying improvements in the ERMYN compared with the model used in previous biosphere modeling (Section 6.7); (6) Constructing an ERMYN implementation tool (model) based on the biosphere mathematical model using GoldSim stochastic simulation software (Sections 6.8 and 6.9); (7) Verifying the ERMYN by comparing output from the software with hand calculations to ensure that the GoldSim implementation is correct (Section 6.10); (8) Validating the ERMYN by corroborating it with published biosphere models; comparing conceptual models, mathematical models, and numerical results (Section 7).

  2. Biosphere Model Report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    D.W. Wu; A.J. Smith

    2004-01-01

    The purpose of this report is to document the biosphere model, the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain, Nevada (ERMYN), which describes radionuclide transport processes in the biosphere and associated human exposure that may arise as the result of radionuclide release from the geologic repository at Yucca Mountain. The biosphere model is one of the process models that support the Yucca Mountain Project (YMP) Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) for the license application (LA), TSPA-LA. The ERMYN provides the capability of performing human radiation dose assessments. This report documents the biosphere model, which includes: (1) Describing the reference biosphere, human receptor, exposure scenarios, and primary radionuclides for each exposure scenario (Section 6.1); (2) Developing a biosphere conceptual model using site-specific features, events, and processes (FEPs) (Section 6.2), the reference biosphere (Section 6.1.1), the human receptor (Section 6.1.2), and approximations (Sections 6.3.1.4 and 6.3.2.4); (3) Building a mathematical model using the biosphere conceptual model (Section 6.3) and published biosphere models (Sections 6.4 and 6.5); (4) Summarizing input parameters for the mathematical model, including the uncertainty associated with input values (Section 6.6); (5) Identifying improvements in the ERMYN compared with the model used in previous biosphere modeling (Section 6.7); (6) Constructing an ERMYN implementation tool (model) based on the biosphere mathematical model using GoldSim stochastic simulation software (Sections 6.8 and 6.9); (7) Verifying the ERMYN by comparing output from the software with hand calculations to ensure that the GoldSim implementation is correct (Section 6.10); (8) Validating the ERMYN by corroborating it with published biosphere models; comparing conceptual models, mathematical models, and numerical results (Section 7)

  3. Biosphere Model Report, Errata 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wasolek, M.

    2003-01-01

    The purpose of this report is to document the biosphere model, the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain, Nevada (ERMYN), which describes radionuclide transport processes in the biosphere and associated human exposure that may arise as the result of radionuclide release from the geologic repository at Yucca Mountain. The biosphere model is one of the process models that support the Yucca Mountain Project (YMP) Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) for the license application (LA), the TSPA-LA. The ERMYN model provides the capability of performing human radiation dose assessments. This report documents the biosphere model, which includes: (1) Describing the reference biosphere, human receptor, exposure scenarios, and primary radionuclides for each exposure scenario (Section 6.1); (2) Developing a biosphere conceptual model using site-specific features, events, and processes (FEPs), the reference biosphere, the human receptor, and assumptions (Section 6.2 and Section 6.3); (3) Building a mathematical model using the biosphere conceptual model and published biosphere models (Sections 6.4 and 6.5); (4) Summarizing input parameters for the mathematical model, including the uncertainty associated with input values (Section 6.6); (5) Identifying improvements in the ERMYN model compared with the model used in previous biosphere modeling (Section 6.7); (6) Constructing an ERMYN implementation tool (model) based on the biosphere mathematical model using GoldSim stochastic simulation software (Sections 6.8 and 6.9); (7) Verifying the ERMYN model by comparing output from the software with hand calculations to ensure that the GoldSim implementation is correct (Section 6.10); (8) Validating the ERMYN model by corroborating it with published biosphere models; comparing conceptual models, mathematical models, and numerical results (Section 7)

  4. Biosphere Model Report, Errata 1

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    M. Wasolek

    2003-09-18

    The purpose of this report is to document the biosphere model, the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain, Nevada (ERMYN), which describes radionuclide transport processes in the biosphere and associated human exposure that may arise as the result of radionuclide release from the geologic repository at Yucca Mountain. The biosphere model is one of the process models that support the Yucca Mountain Project (YMP) Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) for the license application (LA), the TSPA-LA. The ERMYN model provides the capability of performing human radiation dose assessments. This report documents the biosphere model, which includes: (1) Describing the reference biosphere, human receptor, exposure scenarios, and primary radionuclides for each exposure scenario (Section 6.1); (2) Developing a biosphere conceptual model using site-specific features, events, and processes (FEPs), the reference biosphere, the human receptor, and assumptions (Section 6.2 and Section 6.3); (3) Building a mathematical model using the biosphere conceptual model and published biosphere models (Sections 6.4 and 6.5); (4) Summarizing input parameters for the mathematical model, including the uncertainty associated with input values (Section 6.6); (5) Identifying improvements in the ERMYN model compared with the model used in previous biosphere modeling (Section 6.7); (6) Constructing an ERMYN implementation tool (model) based on the biosphere mathematical model using GoldSim stochastic simulation software (Sections 6.8 and 6.9); (7) Verifying the ERMYN model by comparing output from the software with hand calculations to ensure that the GoldSim implementation is correct (Section 6.10); (8) Validating the ERMYN model by corroborating it with published biosphere models; comparing conceptual models, mathematical models, and numerical results (Section 7).

  5. Biosphere Process Model Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    J. Schmitt

    2000-05-25

    To evaluate the postclosure performance of a potential monitored geologic repository at Yucca Mountain, a Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) will be conducted. Nine Process Model Reports (PMRs), including this document, are being developed to summarize the technical basis for each of the process models supporting the TSPA model. These reports cover the following areas: (1) Integrated Site Model; (2) Unsaturated Zone Flow and Transport; (3) Near Field Environment; (4) Engineered Barrier System Degradation, Flow, and Transport; (5) Waste Package Degradation; (6) Waste Form Degradation; (7) Saturated Zone Flow and Transport; (8) Biosphere; and (9) Disruptive Events. Analysis/Model Reports (AMRs) contain the more detailed technical information used to support TSPA and the PMRs. The AMRs consists of data, analyses, models, software, and supporting documentation that will be used to defend the applicability of each process model for evaluating the postclosure performance of the potential Yucca Mountain repository system. This documentation will ensure the traceability of information from its source through its ultimate use in the TSPA-Site Recommendation (SR) and in the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) analysis processes. The objective of the Biosphere PMR is to summarize (1) the development of the biosphere model, and (2) the Biosphere Dose Conversion Factors (BDCFs) developed for use in TSPA. The Biosphere PMR does not present or summarize estimates of potential radiation doses to human receptors. Dose calculations are performed as part of TSPA and will be presented in the TSPA documentation. The biosphere model is a component of the process to evaluate postclosure repository performance and regulatory compliance for a potential monitored geologic repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. The biosphere model describes those exposure pathways in the biosphere by which radionuclides released from a potential repository could reach a human receptor

  6. Biosphere Process Model Report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schmitt, J.

    2000-01-01

    To evaluate the postclosure performance of a potential monitored geologic repository at Yucca Mountain, a Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) will be conducted. Nine Process Model Reports (PMRs), including this document, are being developed to summarize the technical basis for each of the process models supporting the TSPA model. These reports cover the following areas: (1) Integrated Site Model; (2) Unsaturated Zone Flow and Transport; (3) Near Field Environment; (4) Engineered Barrier System Degradation, Flow, and Transport; (5) Waste Package Degradation; (6) Waste Form Degradation; (7) Saturated Zone Flow and Transport; (8) Biosphere; and (9) Disruptive Events. Analysis/Model Reports (AMRs) contain the more detailed technical information used to support TSPA and the PMRs. The AMRs consists of data, analyses, models, software, and supporting documentation that will be used to defend the applicability of each process model for evaluating the postclosure performance of the potential Yucca Mountain repository system. This documentation will ensure the traceability of information from its source through its ultimate use in the TSPA-Site Recommendation (SR) and in the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) analysis processes. The objective of the Biosphere PMR is to summarize (1) the development of the biosphere model, and (2) the Biosphere Dose Conversion Factors (BDCFs) developed for use in TSPA. The Biosphere PMR does not present or summarize estimates of potential radiation doses to human receptors. Dose calculations are performed as part of TSPA and will be presented in the TSPA documentation. The biosphere model is a component of the process to evaluate postclosure repository performance and regulatory compliance for a potential monitored geologic repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. The biosphere model describes those exposure pathways in the biosphere by which radionuclides released from a potential repository could reach a human receptor

  7. Assessment of Food Chain Pathway Parameters in Biosphere Models: Annual Progress Report for Fiscal Year 2004

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Napier, Bruce A.; Krupka, Kenneth M.; Fellows, Robert J.; Cataldo, Dominic A.; Valenta, Michelle M.; Gilmore, Tyler J.

    2004-12-02

    This Annual Progress Report describes the work performed and summarizes some of the key observations to date on the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s project Assessment of Food Chain Pathway Parameters in Biosphere Models, which was established to assess and evaluate a number of key parameters used in the food-chain models used in performance assessments of radioactive waste disposal facilities. Section 2 of this report describes activities undertaken to collect samples of soils from three regions of the United States, the Southeast, Northwest, and Southwest, and perform analyses to characterize their physical and chemical properties. Section 3 summarizes information gathered regarding agricultural practices and common and unusual crops grown in each of these three areas. Section 4 describes progress in studying radionuclide uptake in several representative crops from the three soil types in controlled laboratory conditions. Section 5 describes a range of international coordination activities undertaken by Project staff in order to support the underlying data needs of the Project. Section 6 provides a very brief summary of the status of the GENII Version 2 computer program, which is a “client” of the types of data being generated by the Project, and for which the Project will be providing training to the US NRC staff in the coming Fiscal Year. Several appendices provide additional supporting information.

  8. Short description of the BIOS-model, and selection of biosphere parameters to be used in radionuclide transport and dose

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jong, E.J. de; Koester, H.W.; Vries, W.J. de.

    1990-02-01

    In the framework of the PACOMA-project (Performance assessment of confinements for medium and alpha waste), initiated by the European Commission, possible future radiation doses, due to contamination of the biosphere by radionuclides originating from radioactive waste disposed in salt-formations, were calculated. In all cases considered radionuclides coming out of the geosphere enter a river. For the biosphere calculations the BIOS-model, developed by the NRPB in England, is used. A short description of the model, as well as of the adjustments made at the RIVM to calculate the total individual and collective doses and the subdoses of different exposure pathways is given. The values of biosphere parameters selected for the model are presented, together with the literature consulted. (author). 17 refs., 3 figs.; 2 tabs

  9. Biosphere assessment for high-level radioactive waste disposal: modelling experiences and discussion on key parameters by sensitivity analysis in JNC

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kato, Tomoko; Makino, Hitoshi; Uchida, Masahiro; Suzuki, Yuji

    2004-01-01

    In the safety assessment of the deep geological disposal system of the high-level radioactive waste (HLW), biosphere assessment is often necessary to estimate future radiological impacts on human beings (e.g. radiation dose). In order to estimate the dose, the surface environment (biosphere) into which future releases of radionuclides might occur and the associated future human behaviour needs to be considered. However, for a deep repository, such releases might not occur for many thousands of years after disposal. Over such timescales, it is impossible to predict with any certainty how the biosphere and human behaviour will evolve. To avoid endless speculation aimed at reducing such uncertainty, the 'Reference Biospheres' concept has been developed for use in the safety assessment of HLW disposal. As the aim of the safety assessment with a hypothetical HLW disposal system by JNC was to demonstrate the technical feasibility and reliability of the Japanese disposal concept for a range of geological and surface environments, some biosphere models were developed using the 'Reference Biospheres' concept and the BIOMASS Methodology. These models have been used to derive factors to convert the radionuclide flux from a geosphere to a biosphere into a dose (flux to dose conversion factors). Moreover, sensitivity analysis for parameters in the biosphere models was performed to evaluate and understand the relative importance of parameters. It was concluded that transport parameters in the surface environments, annual amount of food consumption, distribution coefficients on soils and sediments, transfer coefficients of radionuclides to animal products and concentration ratios for marine organisms would have larger influence on the flux to dose conversion factors than any other parameters. (author)

  10. Nuclide documentation. Element specific parameter values used in the biospheric models of the safety assessments SR 97 and SAFE

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Karlsson, Sara; Bergstroem, Ulla [Studsvik Eco and Safety AB, Nykoeping (Sweden)

    2002-05-01

    In this report the element and nuclide specific parameter values used in the biospheric models of the safety assessments SR 97 and SAFE are presented. The references used are presented and where necessary the process of estimation of data is described. The parameters treated in this report are distribution coefficients in soil, organic soil and suspended matter in freshwater and brackish water, root uptake factors for pasturage, cereals, root crops and vegetables, bioaccumulation factors for freshwater fish, brackish water fish, freshwater invertebrates and marine water plants, transfer coefficients for transfer to milk and meat, translocation factors and dose coefficients for external exposure, ingestion (age-dependent values) and inhalation (age-dependent values). The radionuclides treated are those which could be of interest in the two safety assessments. Physical data such as half-lives and type of decay are also presented.

  11. Nuclide documentation. Element specific parameter values used in the biospheric models of the safety assessments SR 97 and SAFE

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Karlsson, Sara; Bergstroem, Ulla

    2002-05-01

    In this report the element and nuclide specific parameter values used in the biospheric models of the safety assessments SR 97 and SAFE are presented. The references used are presented and where necessary the process of estimation of data is described. The parameters treated in this report are distribution coefficients in soil, organic soil and suspended matter in freshwater and brackish water, root uptake factors for pasturage, cereals, root crops and vegetables, bioaccumulation factors for freshwater fish, brackish water fish, freshwater invertebrates and marine water plants, transfer coefficients for transfer to milk and meat, translocation factors and dose coefficients for external exposure, ingestion (age-dependent values) and inhalation (age-dependent values). The radionuclides treated are those which could be of interest in the two safety assessments. Physical data such as half-lives and type of decay are also presented

  12. Biosphere models for deep waste disposal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Olyslaegers, G.

    2005-01-01

    The management of the radioactive waste requires the implementation of disposal systems that ensure an adequate degree of isolation of the radioactivity from man and the environment. Because there are still a lot of uncertainties and a lack of consensus with respect to the importance of the exposure pathways of man, a project BioMoSA (Biosphere Models for Safety Assessment) was elaborated in the Fifth Framework Programme of EURATOM). It aimed at improving the scientific basis for the application of biosphere models in the framework of long-term safety studies for radioactive waste disposal facilities. The section radiological evaluations of SCK-CEN took part in the BioMoSA project. n the BioMoSA project, the reference biosphere methodology developed in the IAEA programme BIOMASS (Biosphere Modelling and Assessment methods) is implemented). We used this methodology in order to increase the transparency of biosphere modelling; t evaluate the importance of the different radionuclides and pathways, and to enhance public confidence in the assessment of potential radiological dose to population groups far into the future. Five European locations, covering a wide range of environmental and agricultural conditions are described and characterised. Each participant developed a specific biosphere model for their site. In order to achieve a consistency in this model derivation, a staged approach has been followed. Successively the biosphere is described and conceptual, mathematical and numerical models are constructed. For each of the locations site-specific parameters are selected. In the project, we had the specific task to make a comparison between the model results generated by the different participants. Results from these studies are presented and discussed

  13. Characteristics of the Receptor for the Biosphere Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wasiolek, M.A.; Rautenstrauch, K.R.

    2003-01-01

    This analysis report is one of the technical reports containing documentation of the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain Nevada (ERMYN), a biosphere model supporting the Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) for the geologic repository at Yucca Mountain. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows relationships among the products (i.e., analysis and model reports) developed for biosphere modeling and biosphere abstraction products for TSPA, as identified in the ''Technical Work Plan: for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support'' (TWP) (BSC 2003). Some documents identified in Figure 1-1 may be under development and not available at the time this report is issued. This figure is included to provide an understanding of how this analysis report contributes to biosphere modeling in support of the license application, and access to the listed documents is not required to understand the contents of this report. This report is one of the reports that develop input parameter values for the biosphere model. The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2003), describes the conceptual model as well as the mathematical model and its input parameters. The purpose of this analysis report is to define values for biosphere model parameters that are related to the dietary, lifestyle, and dosimetric characteristics of the receptor. The biosphere model, consistent with the licensing rule at 10 CFR Part 63, uses a hypothetical person called the reasonably maximally exposed individual (RMEI) to represent the potentially exposed population. The parameters that define the RMEI are based on the behaviors and characteristics of the Amargosa Valley population, consistent with the requirements of 10 CFR 63.312. Amargosa Valley is the community, located in the direction of the projected groundwater flow path, where most of the farming in the area occurs. The parameter values developed in this report support the

  14. Characteristics of the Receptor for the Biosphere Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    M.A. Wasiolek; K.R. Rautenstrauch

    2003-06-27

    This analysis report is one of the technical reports containing documentation of the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain Nevada (ERMYN), a biosphere model supporting the Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) for the geologic repository at Yucca Mountain. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows relationships among the products (i.e., analysis and model reports) developed for biosphere modeling and biosphere abstraction products for TSPA, as identified in the ''Technical Work Plan: for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support'' (TWP) (BSC 2003). Some documents identified in Figure 1-1 may be under development and not available at the time this report is issued. This figure is included to provide an understanding of how this analysis report contributes to biosphere modeling in support of the license application, and access to the listed documents is not required to understand the contents of this report. This report is one of the reports that develop input parameter values for the biosphere model. The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2003), describes the conceptual model as well as the mathematical model and its input parameters. The purpose of this analysis report is to define values for biosphere model parameters that are related to the dietary, lifestyle, and dosimetric characteristics of the receptor. The biosphere model, consistent with the licensing rule at 10 CFR Part 63, uses a hypothetical person called the reasonably maximally exposed individual (RMEI) to represent the potentially exposed population. The parameters that define the RMEI are based on the behaviors and characteristics of the Amargosa Valley population, consistent with the requirements of 10 CFR 63.312. Amargosa Valley is the community, located in the direction of the projected groundwater flow path, where most of the farming in the area occurs. The parameter values

  15. Characteristics of the Receptor for the Biosphere Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    M. Wasiolek; K. Rautenstrauch

    2004-01-01

    This analysis report is one of a series of technical reports that document the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain, Nevada (ERMYN), a biosphere model supporting the total system performance assessment (TSPA) for the geologic repository at Yucca Mountain. This report is one of the five biosphere reports that develop input parameter values for the biosphere model. The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169460]) describes the conceptual model, as well as the mathematical model and its input parameters. Figure 1-1 is a graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN. This figure shows relationships among the products (i.e., scientific analyses and model reports) developed for biosphere modeling and biosphere abstraction products for TSPA, as identified in the ''Technical Work Plan: for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169573]). The purpose of this analysis report is to define values for biosphere model parameters that are related to the dietary, lifestyle, and dosimetric characteristics of the receptor. The biosphere model, consistent with the licensing rule at 10 CFR Part 63 [DIRS 156605], uses a hypothetical person called the reasonably maximally exposed individual (RMEI) to represent the potentially exposed population. The parameters that define the RMEI are based on the behaviors and characteristics of the residents of the unincorporated town of Amargosa Valley, consistent with the requirements of 10 CFR 63.312 [DIRS 156605]. The output of this report is used as direct input in the two analyses identified in Figure 1-1 that calculate the values of biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs) for the groundwater and volcanic ash exposure scenarios. The parameter values developed in this report are reflected in the TSPA through the BDCFs. The analysis was performed in accordance with AP-SIII.9Q, ''Scientific Analyses'', and the technical work plan (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169573])

  16. Characteristics of the Receptor for the Biosphere Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    M. Wasiolek; K. Rautenstrauch

    2004-09-09

    This analysis report is one of a series of technical reports that document the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain, Nevada (ERMYN), a biosphere model supporting the total system performance assessment (TSPA) for the geologic repository at Yucca Mountain. This report is one of the five biosphere reports that develop input parameter values for the biosphere model. The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169460]) describes the conceptual model, as well as the mathematical model and its input parameters. Figure 1-1 is a graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN. This figure shows relationships among the products (i.e., scientific analyses and model reports) developed for biosphere modeling and biosphere abstraction products for TSPA, as identified in the ''Technical Work Plan: for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169573]). The purpose of this analysis report is to define values for biosphere model parameters that are related to the dietary, lifestyle, and dosimetric characteristics of the receptor. The biosphere model, consistent with the licensing rule at 10 CFR Part 63 [DIRS 156605], uses a hypothetical person called the reasonably maximally exposed individual (RMEI) to represent the potentially exposed population. The parameters that define the RMEI are based on the behaviors and characteristics of the residents of the unincorporated town of Amargosa Valley, consistent with the requirements of 10 CFR 63.312 [DIRS 156605]. The output of this report is used as direct input in the two analyses identified in Figure 1-1 that calculate the values of biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs) for the groundwater and volcanic ash exposure scenarios. The parameter values developed in this report are reflected in the TSPA through the BDCFs. The analysis was performed in accordance with AP-SIII.9Q, ''Scientific Analyses'', and the technical work

  17. Overall strategy for management of parameters and data in the biosphere assessment portfolio

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hjerpe, T.

    2006-12-01

    Throughout the biosphere assessment, the parameters selected to represent the present and future biosphere and choices of data values are crucial issues, greatly affecting the end result. The necessity of clear strategy for managing parameters and data is obvious; how to handle the variability of parameters as such, the selection from different sources, the derivation of values of model parameters not readily available, storage of the data in a proper manner, and assuring the quality throughout the whole assessment programme. In this working report a proposed set of broad guidelines for the overall strategy for the management of parameters and data in the biosphere assessment strategy is first presented. Thereafter, a scheme is proposed for assuring the knowledge quality of data. Finally, a proposal for requirements and management of the biosphere assessment database and the current status of the on-going work building the biosphere assessment database and interfaces to other tools are presented. (orig.)

  18. A simplified biosphere model for global climate studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xue, Y.; Sellers, P. J.; Kinter, J. L.; Shukla, J.

    1991-01-01

    A comprehensive analysis of the simple biosphere model (SIB) of Sellers et al. (1986) is performed in an effort to bridge the gap between the typical hydrological treatment of the land surface biosphere and the conventional general circulation model treatment, which is specified through a single parameter. Approximations are developed that stimulate the effects of reduced soil moisture more simply, maintaining the essence of the biophysical concepts utilized in SIB. Comparing the reduced parameter biosphere with those from the original formulation in a GCM and a zero-dimensional model shows the simplified version to reproduce the original results quite closely.

  19. Biosphere modeling for HLW disposal in Japan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Naito, Morimasa

    2001-01-01

    Concept of Reference Biosphere is defined by 'the set of assumptions and hypotheses that is necessary to provide a consistent basis for calculations of the radiological impact arising from long-term releases of repository-derived radionuclides into the biosphere'. Geological environment and biosphere interface (GBI) is the place having the high probability of introduction of radioactive nuclides to biosphere by groundwater. Reference biosphere methodology, GBI, basic models, assessment context, assumptions concerning the surface environment for the biosphere assessment, nuclides migration process, interaction matrix showing radionuclide transport pathways for biosphere modeling, conceptual model for exposure modes and pathways for each exposure group in the biosphere assessment are explained. Response of the biosphere assessment model is steady, unit flux input (1 Bq/y) of different nuclides (farming exposure group). The dose per unit input of agriculture group is 1 to 3 figures larger than that of other two fisheries groups in the case of river and coastal environment except Po-210. We can calculate easily the dose by determining the dose conversion factors derived from different GBI models. Comparison of flux to dose conversion factors derived from different GBI models is effective to know the properties of each model, process and importance of data. (S.Y.)

  20. Characteristics of the Receptor for the Biosphere Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    M.A. Wasiolek

    2005-01-01

    This analysis report is one of a series of technical reports that document the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain, Nevada (ERMYN), a biosphere model supporting the total system performance assessment (TSPA) for the geologic repository at Yucca Mountain. This report is one of the five biosphere reports that develop input parameter values for the biosphere model. The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169460]) describes the conceptual model, as well as the mathematical model and its input parameters. Figure 1-1 is a graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN. This figure shows relationships among the products (i.e., scientific analyses and model reports) developed for biosphere modeling and biosphere abstraction products for TSPA, as identified in the ''Technical Work Plan for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support'' (BSC 2005 [DIRS 172782]). The purpose of this analysis report is to define values for biosphere model parameters that are related to the dietary, lifestyle, and dosimetric characteristics of the receptor. The biosphere model, consistent with the licensing rule at 10 CFR Part 63 [DIRS 173164], uses a hypothetical person called the reasonably maximally exposed individual (RMEI) to represent the potentially exposed population. The parameters that define the RMEI are based on the behaviors and characteristics of the residents of the unincorporated town of Amargosa Valley, consistent with the requirements of 10 CFR 63.312 [DIRS 173164]. The output of this report is used as direct input in the two analyses identified in Figure 1-1 that calculate the values of biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs) for the groundwater and volcanic ash exposure scenarios. The parameter values developed in this report are reflected in the TSPA through the BDCFs. The analysis was performed in accordance with LP-SIII.9Q-BSC, ''Scientific Analyses'', and the technical work plan (BSC 2005 [DIRS 172782]). The scope of the revision was

  1. Characteristics of the Receptor for the Biosphere Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    M.A. Wasiolek

    2005-04-05

    This analysis report is one of a series of technical reports that document the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain, Nevada (ERMYN), a biosphere model supporting the total system performance assessment (TSPA) for the geologic repository at Yucca Mountain. This report is one of the five biosphere reports that develop input parameter values for the biosphere model. The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169460]) describes the conceptual model, as well as the mathematical model and its input parameters. Figure 1-1 is a graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN. This figure shows relationships among the products (i.e., scientific analyses and model reports) developed for biosphere modeling and biosphere abstraction products for TSPA, as identified in the ''Technical Work Plan for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support'' (BSC 2005 [DIRS 172782]). The purpose of this analysis report is to define values for biosphere model parameters that are related to the dietary, lifestyle, and dosimetric characteristics of the receptor. The biosphere model, consistent with the licensing rule at 10 CFR Part 63 [DIRS 173164], uses a hypothetical person called the reasonably maximally exposed individual (RMEI) to represent the potentially exposed population. The parameters that define the RMEI are based on the behaviors and characteristics of the residents of the unincorporated town of Amargosa Valley, consistent with the requirements of 10 CFR 63.312 [DIRS 173164]. The output of this report is used as direct input in the two analyses identified in Figure 1-1 that calculate the values of biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs) for the groundwater and volcanic ash exposure scenarios. The parameter values developed in this report are reflected in the TSPA through the BDCFs. The analysis was performed in accordance with LP-SIII.9Q-BSC, ''Scientific Analyses'', and the technical work

  2. NACP Regional: Gridded 1-deg Observation Data and Biosphere and Inverse Model Outputs

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This data set contains standardized gridded observation data, terrestrial biosphere model output data, and inverse model simulations of carbon flux parameters that...

  3. Integrated Biosphere Simulator Model (IBIS), Version 2.5

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — ABSTRACT: The Integrated Biosphere Simulator (or IBIS) is designed to be a comprehensive model of the terrestrial biosphere. Tthe model represents a wide range of...

  4. Integrated Biosphere Simulator Model (IBIS), Version 2.5

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Integrated Biosphere Simulator (or IBIS) is designed to be a comprehensive model of the terrestrial biosphere. Tthe model represents a wide range of processes,...

  5. Analysis specifications for the CC3 biosphere model BIOTRAC

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Szekely, J.G.; Wojciechowski, L.C.; Stephens, M.E.; Halliday, H.A.

    1994-12-01

    AECL Research is assessing a concept for disposing of Canada's nuclear fuel waste in a vault deep in plutonic rock of the Canadian Shield. A computer program called the Systems Variability Analysis Code (SYVAC) has been developed as an analytical tool for the postclosure (long-term) assessment of the concept. SYVAC3, the third generation of the code, is an executive program that directs repeated simulation of the disposal system to take into account parameter variation. For the postclosure assessment, the system model, CC3 (Canadian Concept, generation 3), was developed to describe a hypothetical disposal system that includes a disposal vault, the local geosphere and the biosphere in the vicinity of any discharge zones. BIOTRAC (BIOsphere TRansport And Consequences) is the biosphere model in the CC3 system model. The specifications for BIOTRAC, which were developed over a period of seven years, were subjected to numerous walkthrough examinations by the Biosphere Model Working Group to ensure that the intent of the model developers would be correctly specified for transformation into FORTRAN code. The FORTRAN version of BIOTRAC was written from interim versions of these specifications. Improvements to the code are based on revised versions of these specifications. The specifications consist of a data dictionary; sets of synopses, data flow diagrams and mini specs for the component models of BIOTRAC (surface water, soil, atmosphere, and food chain and dose); and supporting calculations (interface to the geosphere, consequences, and mass balance). (author). 20 refs., tabs., figs

  6. Radioecological modelling of the biosphere as illustrated by the example of the model area Oberbauenstock

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boehringer, J.; Fritschi, M.; Schwanner, I.; Resele, G.

    1986-06-01

    The biosphere model is the final link in the chain of radionuclide transport models used for radiation dose calculations for nuclear waste repositories. The dispersion of radionuclides from a low and intermediate level waste repository in the biosphere and their uptake by man through food pathways is investigated with a compartment model. The relevant biosphere parameters were based on the model site at Oberbauenstock and compiled as a model data set for further use in the biosphere modelling. Nuclide concentrations in the biosphere compartments and foodstuffs as well as annual individual radiation doses are calculated with the computer program BIOSPH. The present report contains a description of the model area and its subdivision into 4 compartments, a compilation of the relevant parameters and the simplifying assumptions that have been made, discussion of mathematical modelling of nuclide transport in the biosphere and of the calculation of the individual radiation doses, a technical description of the computer program BIOSPH and a detailed presentation of the results from the model calculations. (author)

  7. Evaluation of Features, Events, and Processes (FEP) for the Biosphere Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    M. Wasiolek; P. Rogers

    2004-10-27

    The purpose of this analysis report is to evaluate and document the inclusion or exclusion of biosphere features, events, and processes (FEPs) with respect to modeling used to support the total system performance assessment (TSPA) for the license application (LA). A screening decision, either ''Included'' or ''Excluded'', is given for each FEP along with the corresponding technical basis for the excluded FEPs and the descriptions of how the included FEPs were incorporated in the biosphere model. This information is required by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) regulations at 10 CFR 63.114 (d, e, and f) [DIRS 156605]. The FEPs addressed in this report concern characteristics of the reference biosphere, the receptor, and the environmental transport and receptor exposure pathways for the groundwater and volcanic ash exposure scenarios considered in biosphere modeling. This revision provides the summary of the implementation of included FEPs in TSPA-LA, (i.e., how the FEP is included); for excluded FEPs, this analysis provides the technical basis for exclusion from TSPA-LA (i.e., why the FEP is excluded). This report is one of the 10 documents constituting the biosphere model documentation suite. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the biosphere model is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows the interrelationships among the products (i.e., analysis and model reports) developed for biosphere modeling. The ''Biosphere Model Report'' describes in detail the biosphere conceptual model and mathematical model. The input parameter reports shown to the right of the ''Biosphere Model Report'' contain detailed descriptions of the model input parameters and their development. Outputs from these six reports are used in the ''Nominal Performance Biosphere Dose Conversion Factor Analysis and Disruptive Event Biosphere Dose Conversion Factor Analysis

  8. Alternative biosphere modeling for safety assessment of HLW disposal taking account of geosphere-biosphere interface of marine environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kato, Tomoko; Ishiguro, Katsuhiko; Naito, Morimasa; Ikeda, Takao; Little, Richard

    2001-03-01

    In the safety assessment of a high-level radioactive waste (HLW) disposal system, it is required to estimate radiological impacts on future human beings arising from potential radionuclide releases from a deep repository into the surface environment. In order to estimated the impacts, a biosphere model is developed by reasonably assuming radionuclide migration processes in the surface environment and relevant human lifestyles. It is important to modify the present biosphere models or to develop alternative biosphere models applying the biosphere models according to quality and quantify of the information acquired through the siting process for constructing the repository. In this study, alternative biosphere models were developed taking geosphere-biosphere interface of marine environment into account. Moreover, the flux to dose conversion factors calculated by these alternative biosphere models was compared with those by the present basic biosphere models. (author)

  9. Work in support of biosphere assessments for solid radioactive waste disposal. 2. biosphere FEP list and biosphere modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Egan, M.J.; Maul, P.R.; Watkins, B.M.; Venter, A.

    2001-10-01

    In order to assist SSI in its reappraisal of the SFR safety case, QuantiSci has been appointed to develop a systematic framework within which to conduct the review of SKB's post-closure performance assessment (PA). The biosphere FEP list presented here was developed for use as reference material in conducting the review. SSI wishes to develop an independent PA capability for a time-dependent biosphere in preparation for the examination of the revised SFR safety case. This report documents the model development that has been undertaken by QuantiSci using the Amber computer code

  10. Work in support of biosphere assessments for solid radioactive waste disposal. 2. biosphere FEP list and biosphere modelling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Egan, M.J.; Maul, P.R.; Watkins, B.M.; Venter, A. [QuantiSci Ltd., Henley-on-Thames (United Kingdom)

    2001-10-01

    In order to assist SSI in its reappraisal of the SFR safety case, QuantiSci has been appointed to develop a systematic framework within which to conduct the review of SKB's post-closure performance assessment (PA). The biosphere FEP list presented here was developed for use as reference material in conducting the review. SSI wishes to develop an independent PA capability for a time-dependent biosphere in preparation for the examination of the revised SFR safety case. This report documents the model development that has been undertaken by QuantiSci using the Amber computer code.

  11. Biosphere model for assessing doses from nuclear waste disposal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zach, R.; Amiro, B.D.; Davis, P.A.; Sheppard, S.C.; Szekeley, J.G.

    1994-01-01

    The biosphere model, BIOTRAC, for predicting long term nuclide concentrations and radiological doses from Canada's nuclear fuel waste disposal concept of a vault deep in plutonic rock of the Canadian Shield is presented. This generic, boreal zone biosphere model is based on scenario analysis and systems variability analysis using Monte Carlo simulation techniques. Conservatism is used to bridge uncertainties, even though this creates a small amount of extra nuclide mass. Environmental change over the very long assessment period is mainly handled through distributed parameter values. The dose receptors are a critical group of humans and four generic non-human target organisms. BIOTRAC includes six integrated submodels and it interfaces smoothly with a geosphere model. This interface includes a bedrock well. The geosphere model defines the discharge zones of deep groundwater where nuclides released from the vault enter the biosphere occupied by the dose receptors. The size of one of these zones is reduced when water is withdrawn from the bedrock well. Sensitivity analysis indicates 129 I is by far the most important radionuclide. Results also show bedrock-well water leads to higher doses to man than lake water, but the former doses decrease with the size of the critical group. Under comparable circumstances, doses to the non-human biota are greater than those for man

  12. BIOSPHERE MODELING AT YUCCA MOUNTAIN, NEVADA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    NING LIU; JEFFERY, J.; TAPPEN, DE WU; CHAO-HSIUNG TUNG

    1998-01-01

    The objectives of the biosphere modeling efforts are to assess how radionuclides potentially released from the proposed repository could be transported through a variety of environmental media. The study of these transport mechanisms, referred to as pathways, is critical in calculating the potential radiation dose to man. Since most of the existing and pending regulations applicable to the Project are radiation dose based standards, the biosphere modeling effort will provide crucial technical input to support the Viability Assessment (VA), the Working Draft of License Application (WDLA), and the Environmental Impact Statement (EIS). In 1982, the Nuclear Waste Policy Act (NWPA) was enacted into law. This federal law, which was amended in 1987, addresses the national issue of geologic disposal of high-level nuclear waste generated by commercial nuclear power plants, as well as defense programs during the past few decades. As required by the law, the Department of Energy (DOE) is conducting a site characterization project at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, approximately 100 miles northwest of Las Vegas, Nevada, to determine if the site is suitable for the nation's first high-level nuclear waste repository

  13. Biosphere models for safety assessment of radioactive waste disposal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Proehl, G.; Olyslaegers, G.; Zeevaert, T.; Kanyar, B.; Bergstroem, U.; Hallberg, B.; Mobbs, S.; Chen, Q.; Kowe, R.

    2004-01-01

    The aim of the BioMoSA project has been to contribute in the confidence building of biosphere models, for application in performance assessments of radioactive waste disposal. The detailed objectives of this project are: development and test of practical biosphere models for application in long-term safety studies of radioactive waste disposal to different European locations, identification of features, events and processes that need to be modelled on a site-specific rather than on a generic base, comparison of the results and quantification of the variability of site-specific models developed according to the reference biosphere methodology, development of a generic biosphere tool for application in long term safety studies, comparison of results from site-specific models to those from generic one, Identification of possibilities and limitations for the application of the generic biosphere model. (orig.)

  14. Biosphere models for safety assesment of radioactive waste disposal

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Proehl, G.; Olyslaegers, G.; Zeevaert, T. [SCK/CEN, Mol (Belgium); Kanyar, B. [University of Veszprem (Hungary). Dept. of Radiochemistry; Pinedo, P.; Simon, I. [Centro de Investigaciones Energeticas Medioambientales y Tecnologicas (CIEMAT), Madrid (Spain); Bergstroem, U.; Hallberg, B. [Studsvik Ecosafe, Nykoeping (Sweden); Mobbs, S.; Chen, Q.; Kowe, R. [NRPB, Chilton, Didcot (United Kingdom)

    2004-07-01

    The aim of the BioMoSA project has been to contribute in the confidence building of biosphere models, for application in performance assessments of radioactive waste disposal. The detailed objectives of this project are: development and test of practical biosphere models for application in long-term safety studies of radioactive waste disposal to different European locations, identification of features, events and processes that need to be modelled on a site-specific rather than on a generic base, comparison of the results and quantification of the variability of site-specific models developed according to the reference biosphere methodology, development of a generic biosphere tool for application in long term safety studies, comparison of results from site-specific models to those from generic one, Identification of possibilities and limitations for the application of the generic biosphere model. (orig.)

  15. NACP Site: Terrestrial Biosphere Model Output Data in Original Format

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — ABSTRACT: This data set contains the original model output data submissions from the 24 terrestrial biosphere models (TBM) that participated in the North American...

  16. NACP Site: Terrestrial Biosphere Model Output Data in Original Format

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This data set contains the original model output data submissions from the 24 terrestrial biosphere models (TBM) that participated in the North American Carbon...

  17. Analysis specifications for the CC3 biosphere model biotrac

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Szekely, J.G.; Wojciechowski, L.C.; Stephens, M.E.; Halliday, H.A.

    1994-12-01

    The CC3 (Canadian Concept, generation 3) model BIOTRAC (Biosphere Transport and Consequences) describes the movement in the biosphere of releases from an underground disposal vault, and the consequent radiological dose to a reference individual. Concentrations of toxic substances in different parts of the biosphere are also calculated. BIOTRAC was created specifically for the postclosure analyses of the Environmental Impact Statement that AECL is preparing on the concept for disposal of Canada`s nuclear fuel waste. The model relies on certain assumptions and constraints on the system, which are described by Davis et al. Accordingly, great care must be exercised if BIOTRAC is used for any other purpose.

  18. Frozen soil parameterization in a distributed biosphere hydrological model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Wang

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available In this study, a frozen soil parameterization has been modified and incorporated into a distributed biosphere hydrological model (WEB-DHM. The WEB-DHM with the frozen scheme was then rigorously evaluated in a small cold area, the Binngou watershed, against the in-situ observations from the WATER (Watershed Allied Telemetry Experimental Research. First, by using the original WEB-DHM without the frozen scheme, the land surface parameters and two van Genuchten parameters were optimized using the observed surface radiation fluxes and the soil moistures at upper layers (5, 10 and 20 cm depths at the DY station in July. Second, by using the WEB-DHM with the frozen scheme, two frozen soil parameters were calibrated using the observed soil temperature at 5 cm depth at the DY station from 21 November 2007 to 20 April 2008; while the other soil hydraulic parameters were optimized by the calibration of the discharges at the basin outlet in July and August that covers the annual largest flood peak in 2008. With these calibrated parameters, the WEB-DHM with the frozen scheme was then used for a yearlong validation from 21 November 2007 to 20 November 2008. Results showed that the WEB-DHM with the frozen scheme has given much better performance than the WEB-DHM without the frozen scheme, in the simulations of soil moisture profile at the cold regions catchment and the discharges at the basin outlet in the yearlong simulation.

  19. The status of world biosphere modelling for waste disposal assessments following BIOMOVS II

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Klos, R.; Reid, J.A.K.; Santucci, P.; Bergstrom, U.

    1996-01-01

    characterising the site was typical of that used in many contemporary assessments. In terms of biosphere modelling for waste disposal assessments, a number of important conclusions emerge from the Complementary Studies exercise: The maximum dose arising from multiple, parallel exposure pathways is a robust and stable estimator of radiological impact of release to the biosphere; Model structure (complexity) affects the system dynamics, not the maximum dose; Models of the radionuclide transport and the exposure pathways for carrying out assessments of present day climate states and using a subsistence agriculture model of human society, show broad agreement on which FEPs are necessary. At present, there is still considerable divergence in mathematical implementation for exposure pathways; Convergence of the models following the BIOMOVS intercomparisons indicates that a common, inclusive, default biosphere representation of the relevant FEPs for the modelling of temperate biosphere is possible. This could be extended to other spatial and temporal situations. However, a generic formulation must be comprehensive and relatively detailed, with simplifications possible only as non-relevant FEPs are screened out on a site-specific basis; The lack of a comprehensive, consistent, international database for many of the parameters required in such modelling is a bar to establishing a fully defensible representation for waste disposal assessments. This problem becomes worse the more the modelled biosphere differs from the present day temperate model, because of potential changes to the definition of the critical group with time. This conclusion should be addressed in future international exercises. (author)

  20. WEB-DHM: A distributed biosphere hydrological model developed by coupling a simple biosphere scheme with a hillslope hydrological model

    Science.gov (United States)

    The coupling of land surface models and hydrological models potentially improves the land surface representation, benefiting both the streamflow prediction capabilities as well as providing improved estimates of water and energy fluxes into the atmosphere. In this study, the simple biosphere model 2...

  1. Radioactive waste disposal assessment - overview of biosphere processes and models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coughtrey, P.J.

    1992-09-01

    This report provides an overview of biosphere processes and models in the general context of the radiological assessment of radioactive waste disposal as a basis for HMIP's response to biosphere aspects of Nirex's submissions for disposal of radioactive wastes in a purpose-built repository at Sellafield, Cumbria. The overview takes into account published information from the UK as available from Nirex's safety and assessment research programme and HMIP's disposal assessment programme, as well as that available from studies in the UK and elsewhere. (Author)

  2. Post-closure biosphere assessment modelling: comparison of complex and more stylised approaches.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walke, Russell C; Kirchner, Gerald; Xu, Shulan; Dverstorp, Björn

    2015-10-01

    Geological disposal facilities are the preferred option for high-level radioactive waste, due to their potential to provide isolation from the surface environment (biosphere) on very long timescales. Assessments need to strike a balance between stylised models and more complex approaches that draw more extensively on site-specific information. This paper explores the relative merits of complex versus more stylised biosphere models in the context of a site-specific assessment. The more complex biosphere modelling approach was developed by the Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co (SKB) for the Formark candidate site for a spent nuclear fuel repository in Sweden. SKB's approach is built on a landscape development model, whereby radionuclide releases to distinct hydrological basins/sub-catchments (termed 'objects') are represented as they evolve through land rise and climate change. Each of seventeen of these objects is represented with more than 80 site specific parameters, with about 22 that are time-dependent and result in over 5000 input values per object. The more stylised biosphere models developed for this study represent releases to individual ecosystems without environmental change and include the most plausible transport processes. In the context of regulatory review of the landscape modelling approach adopted in the SR-Site assessment in Sweden, the more stylised representation has helped to build understanding in the more complex modelling approaches by providing bounding results, checking the reasonableness of the more complex modelling, highlighting uncertainties introduced through conceptual assumptions and helping to quantify the conservatisms involved. The more stylised biosphere models are also shown capable of reproducing the results of more complex approaches. A major recommendation is that biosphere assessments need to justify the degree of complexity in modelling approaches as well as simplifying and conservative assumptions. In light of

  3. Models for dose assessments. Modules for various biosphere types

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bergstroem, U.; Nordlinder, S.; Aggeryd, I.

    1999-12-01

    The main objective of this study was to provide a basis for illustrations of yearly dose rates to the most exposed individual from hypothetical leakages of radionuclides from a deep bedrock repository for spent nuclear fuel and other radioactive waste. The results of this study will be used in the safety assessment SR 97 and in a study on the design and long-term safety for a repository planned to contain long-lived low and intermediate level waste. The repositories will be designed to isolate the radionuclides for several hundred thousands of years. In the SR 97 study, however, hypothetical scenarios for leakage are postulated. Radionuclides are hence assumed to be transported in the geosphere by groundwater, and probably discharge into the biosphere. This may occur in several types of ecosystems. A number of categories of such ecosystems were identified, and turnover of radionuclides was modelled separately for each ecosystem. Previous studies had focused on generic models for wells, lakes and coastal areas. These models were, in this study, developed further to use site-specific data. In addition, flows of groundwater, containing radionuclides, to agricultural land and peat bogs were considered. All these categories are referred to as modules in this report. The forest ecosystems were not included, due to a general lack of knowledge of biospheric processes in connection with discharge of groundwater in forested areas. Examples of each type of module were run with the assumption of a continuous annual release into the biosphere of 1 Bq for each radionuclide during 10 000 years. The results are presented as ecosystem specific dose conversion factors (EDFs) for each nuclide at the year 10 000, assuming stationary ecosystems and prevailing living conditions and habits. All calculations were performed with uncertainty analyses included. Simplifications and assumptions in the modelling of biospheric processes are discussed. The use of modules may be seen as a step

  4. Models for dose assessments. Modules for various biosphere types

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bergstroem, U.; Nordlinder, S.; Aggeryd, I. [Studsvik Eco and Safety AB, Nykoeping (Sweden)

    1999-12-01

    The main objective of this study was to provide a basis for illustrations of yearly dose rates to the most exposed individual from hypothetical leakages of radionuclides from a deep bedrock repository for spent nuclear fuel and other radioactive waste. The results of this study will be used in the safety assessment SR 97 and in a study on the design and long-term safety for a repository planned to contain long-lived low and intermediate level waste. The repositories will be designed to isolate the radionuclides for several hundred thousands of years. In the SR 97 study, however, hypothetical scenarios for leakage are postulated. Radionuclides are hence assumed to be transported in the geosphere by groundwater, and probably discharge into the biosphere. This may occur in several types of ecosystems. A number of categories of such ecosystems were identified, and turnover of radionuclides was modelled separately for each ecosystem. Previous studies had focused on generic models for wells, lakes and coastal areas. These models were, in this study, developed further to use site-specific data. In addition, flows of groundwater, containing radionuclides, to agricultural land and peat bogs were considered. All these categories are referred to as modules in this report. The forest ecosystems were not included, due to a general lack of knowledge of biospheric processes in connection with discharge of groundwater in forested areas. Examples of each type of module were run with the assumption of a continuous annual release into the biosphere of 1 Bq for each radionuclide during 10 000 years. The results are presented as ecosystem specific dose conversion factors (EDFs) for each nuclide at the year 10 000, assuming stationary ecosystems and prevailing living conditions and habits. All calculations were performed with uncertainty analyses included. Simplifications and assumptions in the modelling of biospheric processes are discussed. The use of modules may be seen as a step

  5. Site specificity of biosphere parameter values in performance assessments of near-surface repositories

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zeevaert, Th.; Volckaert, G.; Vandecasleele

    1993-01-01

    The contribution is dealing with the performance assessment model for near surface repositories in Belgium. It consists of four submodels called: site, aquifer, biosphere and dose. For some characteristic radionuclides, results of the study are shown for a typical site, and differences in doses assessed with the generic approach discussed. Shortcomings are indicated

  6. Radioactive waste management. International projects on biosphere modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carboneras, P.; Cancio, D.

    1993-01-01

    The paper presents a general overview and discussion on the state of art concerning the biospheric transfer and accumulation of contaminants. A special emphasis is given to the progress achieved in the field of radioactive contaminants and particularly to those implied in radioactive waste disposal. The objectives and advances of the international projects BIOMOVS and VAMP on validation of model predictions are also described. (Author)

  7. Biosphere modelling for the assessment of radioactive waste repositories: the development of a common basis by the BIOMOVS II working group on reference biospheres

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    VanDorp, F.

    1996-01-01

    Performance criteria for radioactive waste repositories are often expressed in terms of dose or risk. The characteristics of biosphere modelling for performance assessment are that: a) potential release occurs in the distant future, b) reliable predictions of human behaviour at the time of release are impracticable, and c) the biosphere is not considered to be a barrier. For these and other reasons, many unexplained differences have arisen in the approaches to biosphere modelling. The BIOMOVS II Working Group on Reference Biospheres has developed a) a recommended methodology for biosphere model development, b) a structured electronic list of features, events and processes (FEPs), and c) an illustrative example of the recommended methodology. The Working Group has successfully tested the Interaction Matrix (or Rock Engineering Systems, RES) approach for developing conceptual models. The BIOMOVS II Working Groups on Reference Biospheres and Complementary Studies have achieved considerable harmonisation in approaches to biosphere modelling. (author)

  8. Using observations to evaluate biosphere-atmosphere interactions in models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Green, Julia; Konings, Alexandra G.; Alemohammad, Seyed H.; Gentine, Pierre

    2017-04-01

    Biosphere-atmosphere interactions influence the hydrologic cycle by altering climate and weather patterns (Charney, 1975; Koster et al., 2006; Seneviratne et al., 2006), contributing up to 30% of precipitation and radiation variability in certain regions (Green et al., 2017). They have been shown to contribute to the persistence of drought in Europe (Seneviratne et al., 2006), as well as to increase rainfall in the Amazon (Spracklen et al., 2012). Thus, a true representation of these feedbacks in Earth System Models (ESMs) is crucial for accurate forecasting and planning. However, it has been difficult to validate the performance of ESMs since often-times surface and atmospheric flux data are scarce and/or difficult to observe. In this study, we use the results of a new global observational study (using remotely sensed solar-induced fluorescence to represent the biosphere flux) (Green et al., 2017) to determine how well a suite of 13 ESMs capture biosphere-atmosphere feedbacks. We perform a Conditional Multivariate Granger Causality analysis in the frequency domain with radiation, precipitation and temperature as atmospheric inputs and GPP as the biospheric input. Performing the analysis in the frequency domain allows for separation of feedbacks at different time-scales (subseasonal, seasonal or interannual). Our findings can be used to determine whether there is agreement between models, as well as, to pinpoint regions or time-scales of model bias or inaccuracy, which will provide insight on potential improvement. We demonstrate that in addition to the well-known problem of convective parameterization over land in models, the main issue in representing feedbacks between the land and the atmosphere is due to the misrepresentation of water stress. These results provide a direct quantitative assessment of feedbacks in models and how to improve them. References: Charney, J.G. Dynamics of deserts and drought in the Sahel. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological

  9. Evaluation of Features, Events, and Processes (FEP) for the Biosphere Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wasiolek, M. A.

    2003-01-01

    time of the resulting exposures to the reasonably maximally exposed individual (RMEI) or the radionuclide releases to the accessible environment. FEPs may also be excluded by regulation based on definitions, key concepts, or provisions specifically stated in the applicable NRC regulations. This analysis report is one of the technical reports containing documentation of the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain, Nevada (ERMYN), a biosphere model supporting the TSPA for the Yucca Mountain repository. The included biosphere-related FEPs were used to develop the conceptual model of the biosphere (BSC 2003 [DIRS 164186]) and were also used to develop of the model parameter values. A graphical representation of the biosphere model documentation hierarchy is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows the interrelationships among the analysis and model reports supporting biosphere modeling and provides an understanding of how this analysis report contributes to biosphere modeling. The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2003 [DIRS 164186]) describes in detail the biosphere conceptual and mathematical models as well as the model validation

  10. Evaluation of Features, Events, and Processes (FEP) for the Biosphere Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    M. A. Wasiolek

    2003-10-09

    time of the resulting exposures to the reasonably maximally exposed individual (RMEI) or the radionuclide releases to the accessible environment. FEPs may also be excluded by regulation based on definitions, key concepts, or provisions specifically stated in the applicable NRC regulations. This analysis report is one of the technical reports containing documentation of the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain, Nevada (ERMYN), a biosphere model supporting the TSPA for the Yucca Mountain repository. The included biosphere-related FEPs were used to develop the conceptual model of the biosphere (BSC 2003 [DIRS 164186]) and were also used to develop of the model parameter values. A graphical representation of the biosphere model documentation hierarchy is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows the interrelationships among the analysis and model reports supporting biosphere modeling and provides an understanding of how this analysis report contributes to biosphere modeling. The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2003 [DIRS 164186]) describes in detail the biosphere conceptual and mathematical models as well as the model validation.

  11. Evaluation of Features, Events, and Processes (FEP) for the Biosphere Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    J. J. Tappen

    2003-01-01

    (FEPs) at Yucca Mountain'' (BSC 2002a), herein referred to as the Enhanced FEP Plan, was developed to directly address KTI Agreement TSPAI 2.05, and to generally address other KTI Agreements and issues (BSC 2002a, pp. 16 to 18). The Enhanced FEP Plan addresses the regulatory requirements of 10 CFR Part 63, identifies and implements specific enhancements, and supports the License Application (BSC 2002a, p. 2). This SAR is not intended to implement any of the enhancements identified in the Enhanced FEP Plan, although it does consider the intent of the Enhanced FEP Plan to simplify the screening analysis. This SAR is one of nine technical reports containing the documentation for the biosphere model being developed, its input parameters, and the application of the model to develop biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs). Figure 1 shows the anticipated interrelationship between these nine technical reports and the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain, Nevada (ERMYN), commonly referred to as the biosphere model. The biosphere model belongs to the series of process models supporting the Total System Performance Assessment for the License Application. Specifically, the biosphere model provides the performance assessment with the capability to perform dose assessment

  12. Evaluation of Features, Events, and Processes (FEP) for the Biosphere Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    J. J. Tappen

    2003-02-16

    . ''The Enhanced Plan for Features, Events and Processes (FEPs) at Yucca Mountain'' (BSC 2002a), herein referred to as the Enhanced FEP Plan, was developed to directly address KTI Agreement TSPAI 2.05, and to generally address other KTI Agreements and issues (BSC 2002a, pp. 16 to 18). The Enhanced FEP Plan addresses the regulatory requirements of 10 CFR Part 63, identifies and implements specific enhancements, and supports the License Application (BSC 2002a, p. 2). This SAR is not intended to implement any of the enhancements identified in the Enhanced FEP Plan, although it does consider the intent of the Enhanced FEP Plan to simplify the screening analysis. This SAR is one of nine technical reports containing the documentation for the biosphere model being developed, its input parameters, and the application of the model to develop biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs). Figure 1 shows the anticipated interrelationship between these nine technical reports and the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain, Nevada (ERMYN), commonly referred to as the biosphere model. The biosphere model belongs to the series of process models supporting the Total System Performance Assessment for the License Application. Specifically, the biosphere model provides the performance assessment with the capability to perform dose assessment.

  13. NACP Regional: Gridded 1-deg Observation Data and Biosphere and Inverse Model Outputs

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — ABSTRACT: This data set contains standardized gridded observation data, terrestrial biosphere model output data, and inverse model simulations of carbon flux...

  14. NACP Regional: Original Observation Data and Biosphere and Inverse Model Outputs

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This data set contains the originally-submitted observation measurement data, terrestrial biosphere model output data, and inverse model simulations that various...

  15. NACP Regional: Original Observation Data and Biosphere and Inverse Model Outputs

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — ABSTRACT: This data set contains the originally-submitted observation measurement data, terrestrial biosphere model output data, and inverse model simulations that...

  16. A multi-model assessment of terrestrial biosphere model data needs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gardella, A.; Cowdery, E.; De Kauwe, M. G.; Desai, A. R.; Duveneck, M.; Fer, I.; Fisher, R.; Knox, R. G.; Kooper, R.; LeBauer, D.; McCabe, T.; Minunno, F.; Raiho, A.; Serbin, S.; Shiklomanov, A. N.; Thomas, A.; Walker, A.; Dietze, M.

    2017-12-01

    Terrestrial biosphere models provide us with the means to simulate the impacts of climate change and their uncertainties. Going beyond direct observation and experimentation, models synthesize our current understanding of ecosystem processes and can give us insight on data needed to constrain model parameters. In previous work, we leveraged the Predictive Ecosystem Analyzer (PEcAn) to assess the contribution of different parameters to the uncertainty of the Ecosystem Demography model v2 (ED) model outputs across various North American biomes (Dietze et al., JGR-G, 2014). While this analysis identified key research priorities, the extent to which these priorities were model- and/or biome-specific was unclear. Furthermore, because the analysis only studied one model, we were unable to comment on the effect of variability in model structure to overall predictive uncertainty. Here, we expand this analysis to all biomes globally and a wide sample of models that vary in complexity: BioCro, CABLE, CLM, DALEC, ED2, FATES, G'DAY, JULES, LANDIS, LINKAGES, LPJ-GUESS, MAESPA, PRELES, SDGVM, SIPNET, and TEM. Prior to performing uncertainty analyses, model parameter uncertainties were assessed by assimilating all available trait data from the combination of the BETYdb and TRY trait databases, using an updated multivariate version of PEcAn's Hierarchical Bayesian meta-analysis. Next, sensitivity analyses were performed for all models across a range of sites globally to assess sensitivities for a range of different outputs (GPP, ET, SH, Ra, NPP, Rh, NEE, LAI) at multiple time scales from the sub-annual to the decadal. Finally, parameter uncertainties and model sensitivities were combined to evaluate the fractional contribution of each parameter to the predictive uncertainty for a specific variable at a specific site and timescale. Facilitated by PEcAn's automated workflows, this analysis represents the broadest assessment of the sensitivities and uncertainties in terrestrial

  17. An overview of biosphere modelling for the assessment of solid waste disposal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, G.M.

    1990-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to discuss the role of biosphere modelling in relation to the overall assessment of disposal of solid radioactive waste. Model structure and data requirements are strongly influenced by a number of basic factors. Firstly, the alternative forms of safety criteria and regulatory requirements imply different end-points for biosphere models. Secondly, alternative disposal concepts can influence the significance of the biosphere as a barrier or diluting/concentrating feature affecting exposure of man. Thirdly, the range of different possibilities for release to the biosphere, including releases following intrusion, is very extensive. The requirements and state of development of biosphere models are discussed in relation to these factors along with methods being adopted to provide some expression of confidence in model results. 37 refs

  18. DISRUPTIVE EVENT BIOSPHERE DOSE CONVERSION FACTOR ANALYSIS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    M.A. Wasiolek

    2005-01-01

    This analysis report is one of the technical reports containing documentation of the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain, Nevada (ERMYN), a biosphere model supporting the total system performance assessment (TSPA) for the license application (LA) for the Yucca Mountain repository. This analysis report describes the development of biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs) for the volcanic ash exposure scenario, and the development of dose factors for calculating inhalation dose during volcanic eruption. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows the interrelationships among the products (i.e., analysis and model reports) developed for biosphere modeling and provides an understanding of how this analysis report contributes to biosphere modeling. This report is one of two reports that develop biosphere BDCFs, which are input parameters for the TSPA model. The Biosphere Model Report (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169460]) describes in detail the ERMYN conceptual model and mathematical model. The input parameter reports, shown to the right of the Biosphere Model Report in Figure 1-1, contain detailed descriptions of the model input parameters, their development and the relationship between the parameters and specific features, events and processes (FEPs). This report describes biosphere model calculations and their output, the BDCFs, for the volcanic ash exposure scenario. This analysis receives direct input from the outputs of the ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169460]) and from the five analyses that develop parameter values for the biosphere model (BSC 2005 [DIRS 172827]; BSC 2004 [DIRS 169672]; BSC 2004 [DIRS 169673]; BSC 2004 [DIRS 169458]; and BSC 2004 [DIRS 169459]). The results of this report are further analyzed in the ''Biosphere Dose Conversion Factor Importance and Sensitivity Analysis'' (Figure 1-1). The objective of this analysis was to develop the BDCFs for the volcanic

  19. The biosphere at Laxemar. Data, assumptions and models used in the SR-Can assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Karlsson, Sara; Kautsky, Ulrik; Loefgren, Anders; Soederbaeck, Bjoern

    2006-10-01

    This is essentially a compilation of a variety of reports concerning the site investigations, the research activities and information derived from other sources important for the safety assessment. The main objective is to present prerequisites, methods and data used, in the biosphere modelling for the safety assessment SR-Can at the Laxemar site. A major part of the report focuses on how site-specific data are used, recalculated or modified in order to be applicable in the safety assessment context; and the methods and sub-models that are the basis for the biosphere modelling. Furthermore, the assumptions made as to the future states of surface ecosystems are mainly presented in this report. A similar report is provided for the Forsmark area. This report summarises the method adopted for safety assessment following a radionuclide release into the biosphere. The approach utilises the information about the site as far as possible and presents a way of calculating risk to humans. A central tool in the work is the description of the topography, where there is good understanding of the present conditions and the development over time is fairly predictable. The topography affects surface hydrology, sedimentation, size of drainage areas and the characteristics of ecosystems. Other parameters are human nutritional intake, which is assumed to be constant over time, and primary production (photosynthesis), which also is a fairly constant parameter over time. The Landscape Dose Factor approach (LDF) gives an integrated measure for the site and also resolves the issues relating to the size of the group with highest exposure. If this approach is widely accepted as method, still some improvements and refinement are necessary in collecting missing site data, reanalysing site data, reviewing radionuclide specific data, reformulating ecosystem models and evaluating the results with further sensitivity analysis

  20. The biosphere at Laxemar. Data, assumptions and models used in the SR-Can assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Karlsson, Sara; Kautsky, Ulrik; Loefgren, Anders; Soederbaeck, Bjoern (eds.)

    2006-10-15

    This is essentially a compilation of a variety of reports concerning the site investigations, the research activities and information derived from other sources important for the safety assessment. The main objective is to present prerequisites, methods and data used, in the biosphere modelling for the safety assessment SR-Can at the Laxemar site. A major part of the report focuses on how site-specific data are used, recalculated or modified in order to be applicable in the safety assessment context; and the methods and sub-models that are the basis for the biosphere modelling. Furthermore, the assumptions made as to the future states of surface ecosystems are mainly presented in this report. A similar report is provided for the Forsmark area. This report summarises the method adopted for safety assessment following a radionuclide release into the biosphere. The approach utilises the information about the site as far as possible and presents a way of calculating risk to humans. A central tool in the work is the description of the topography, where there is good understanding of the present conditions and the development over time is fairly predictable. The topography affects surface hydrology, sedimentation, size of drainage areas and the characteristics of ecosystems. Other parameters are human nutritional intake, which is assumed to be constant over time, and primary production (photosynthesis), which also is a fairly constant parameter over time. The Landscape Dose Factor approach (LDF) gives an integrated measure for the site and also resolves the issues relating to the size of the group with highest exposure. If this approach is widely accepted as method, still some improvements and refinement are necessary in collecting missing site data, reanalysing site data, reviewing radionuclide specific data, reformulating ecosystem models and evaluating the results with further sensitivity analysis.

  1. Radionuclide transport and dose assessment modelling in biosphere assessment 2009

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hjerpe, T.; Broed, R.

    2010-11-01

    Following the guidelines set forth by the Ministry of Trade and Industry (now Ministry of Employment and Economy), Posiva is preparing to submit a construction license application for the final disposal spent nuclear fuel at the Olkiluoto site, Finland, by the end of the year 2012. Disposal will take place in a geological repository implemented according to the KBS-3 method. The long-term safety section supporting the license application will be based on a safety case that, according to the internationally adopted definition, will be a compilation of the evidence, analyses and arguments that quantify and substantiate the safety and the level of expert confidence in the safety of the planned repository. This report documents in detail the conceptual and mathematical models and key data used in the landscape model set-up, radionuclide transport modelling, and radiological consequences analysis applied in the 2009 biosphere assessment. Resulting environmental activity concentrations in landscape model due to constant unit geosphere release rates, and the corresponding annual doses, are also calculated and presented in this report. This provides the basis for understanding the behaviour of the applied landscape model and subsequent dose calculations. (orig.)

  2. Soil-to-Plant Concentration Ratios for Assessing Food Chain Pathways in Biosphere Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Napier, Bruce A.; Fellows, Robert J.; Krupka, Kenneth M.

    2007-10-01

    This report describes work performed for the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s project Assessment of Food Chain Pathway Parameters in Biosphere Models, which was established to assess and evaluate a number of key parameters used in the food-chain models used in performance assessments of radioactive waste disposal facilities. Section 2 of this report summarizes characteristics of samples of soils and groundwater from three geographical regions of the United States, the Southeast, Northwest, and Southwest, and analyses performed to characterize their physical and chemical properties. Because the uptake and behavior of radionuclides in plant roots, plant leaves, and animal products depends on the chemistry of the water and soil coming in contact with plants and animals, water and soil samples collected from these regions of the United States were used in experiments at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory to determine radionuclide soil-to-plant concentration ratios. Crops and forage used in the experiments were grown in the soils, and long-lived radionuclides introduced into the groundwater provide the contaminated water used to water the grown plants. The radionuclides evaluated include 99Tc, 238Pu, and 241Am. Plant varieties include alfalfa, corn, onion, and potato. The radionuclide uptake results from this research study show how regional variations in water quality and soil chemistry affect radionuclide uptake. Section 3 summarizes the procedures and results of the uptake experiments, and relates the soil-to-plant uptake factors derived. In Section 4, the results found in this study are compared with similar values found in the biosphere modeling literature; the study’s results are generally in line with current literature, but soil- and plant-specific differences are noticeable. This food-chain pathway data may be used by the NRC staff to assess dose to persons in the reference biosphere (e.g., persons who live and work in an area potentially affected by

  3. Biosphere modelling for the assessment of radioactive waste repositories; the development of a common basis by the BIOMOVS II reference biospheres working group

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dorp, F. van; Egan, M.; Kessler, J.H.; Nilsson, S.; Pinedo, P.; Smith, G.; Torres, C.

    1998-01-01

    Performance criteria for radioactive waste repositories are often expressed in terms of dose or risk. The characteristics of biosphere modelling for performance assessment are that: (a) potential release occurs in the distant future, (b) reliable predictions of human behaviour at the time of release are impracticable, and (c) the biosphere is not considered to be a barrier as the geosphere and the engineered barriers. For these and other reasons, differences have arisen in the approaches to biosphere modelling for repository dose and risk assessment. The BIOMOVS II Reference Biospheres Working Group has developed (a) a recommended methodology for biosphere model development, (b) a structured list of features, events and processes (FEPs) which the model should describe, and (c) an illustrative example of the recommended methodology. The Working Group has successfully tested the Interaction Matrix (or Rock Engineering Systems, RES) approach for developing conceptual models. The BIOMOVS II Working Groups on Reference Biospheres and Complementary Studies have laid the basis for considerable harmonisation in approaches to biosphere modelling of long term radionuclide releases. (Copyright (c) 1998 Elsevier Science B.V., Amsterdam. All rights reserved.)

  4. 'Reference Biospheres' for solid radioactive waste disposal. Report of BIOMASS Theme 1 of the BIOsphere Modelling and ASSessment (BIOMASS) Programme. Part of the IAEA Co-ordinated Research Project on Biosphere Modelling and Assessment (BIOMASS)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2003-07-01

    The IAEA Programme on BIOsphere Modelling and ASSessment (BIOMASS) was launched in Vienna in October 1996. The programme was concerned with developing and improving capabilities to predict the transfer of radionuclides in the environment. The programme had three themes: Theme 1: Radioactive Waste Disposal. The objective was to develop the concept of a standard or reference biosphere for application to the assessment of the long-term safety of repositories for radioactive waste. Under the general heading of 'Reference Biospheres', six Task Groups were established: Task Group 1: Principles for the Definition of Critical and Other Exposure Groups. Task Group 2: Principles for the Application of Data to Assessment Models. Task Group 3: Consideration of Alternative Assessment Contexts. Task Group 4: Biosphere System Identification and Justification. Task Group 5: Biosphere System Descriptions. Task Group 6: Model Development. Theme 2: Environmental Releases. BIOMASS provided an international forum for activities aimed at increasing the confidence in methods and models for the assessment of radiation exposure related to environmental releases. Two Working Groups addressed issues concerned with the reconstruction of radiation doses received by people from past releases of radionuclides to the environment and the evaluation of the efficacy of remedial measures. Theme 3: Biosphere Processes. The aim of this Theme was to improve capabilities for modelling the transfer of radionuclides in particular parts of the biosphere identified as being of potential radiological significance and where there were gaps in modelling approaches. This topic was explored using a range of methods including reviews of the literature, model inter-comparison exercises and, where possible, model testing against independent sources of data. Three Working Groups were established to examine the modelling of: (1) long term tritium dispersion in the environment; (2) radionuclide uptake by fruits; and (3

  5. SiB3 Modeled Global 1-degree Hourly Biosphere-Atmosphere Carbon Flux, 1998-2006

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Simple Biosphere Model, Version 3 (SiB3) was used to produce a global data set of hourly carbon fluxes between the atmosphere and the terrestrial biosphere for...

  6. The disposal of Canada's nuclear fuel waste: the biosphere model, BIOTRAC, for postclosure assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Davis, P.A.; Zach, R.; Stephens, M.E.; Amiro, B.D.; Bird, G.A.; Reid, J.A.K.; Sheppard, M.I.; Sheppard, S.C.; Stephenson, M.

    1993-01-01

    The nuclear fuel waste management concept of Canada calls for disposal of the waste in a vault mined deep in plutonic rock of the Canadian Shield. The technical feasibility of this concept, and its impact on the environment and human health, will be documented in an Environmental Impact statement (EIS) by AECL. The present report is one of nine EIS primary references. The report describes the BIOTRAC model, which is used to trace nuclide movement from the geosphere through the biosphere and to calculate time-dependent environmental concentrations and radiological doses to humans and other biota for the postclosure phase. These concentrations and doses are crucial for evaluating the safety and environmental acceptability of the concept in terms of chemical and radiological toxicity. BIOTRAC was developed specifically to assess the impacts of a used-fuel disposal vault. It is a comprehensive, generic model with distributed or probabilistic parameter values to account for spatial and temporal variability and uncertainty. It is composed of four separate but closely linked submodels representing surface waters, soils, the atmosphere and the food chain. It also includes a unique model for predicting radiological doses to non-human biota, represented by generic target organisms. The mathematical formulation of each submodel is derived in detail and interpreted physically, and all the assumptions are fully evaluated and discussed. It is shown how the parameter values and distributions adopted for each submodel are derived from the available data. The interfaces between the submodels, and between BIOTRAC and the geosphere model, are presented in detail. Fluctuations in the physical state of the biosphere are accounted for through the parameter distributions. Major environmental changes, such as those caused by continental glaciation, are addressed quantitatively and through reasoned arguments, which indicate that radiological doses to humans will not increase suddenly or

  7. Modeling the impact of climate change in Germany with biosphere models for long-term safety assessment of nuclear waste repositories

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Staudt, C.; Semiochkina, N.; Kaiser, J.C.; Pröhl, G.

    2013-01-01

    Biosphere models are used to evaluate the exposure of populations to radionuclides from a deep geological repository. Since the time frame for assessments of long-time disposal safety is 1 million years, potential future climate changes need to be accounted for. Potential future climate conditions were defined for northern Germany according to model results from the BIOCLIM project. Nine present day reference climate regions were defined to cover those future climate conditions. A biosphere model was developed according to the BIOMASS methodology of the IAEA and model parameters were adjusted to the conditions at the reference climate regions. The model includes exposure pathways common to those reference climate regions in a stylized biosphere and relevant to the exposure of a hypothetical self-sustaining population at the site of potential radionuclide contamination from a deep geological repository. The end points of the model are Biosphere Dose Conversion factors (BDCF) for a range of radionuclides and scenarios normalized for a constant radionuclide concentration in near-surface groundwater. Model results suggest an increased exposure of in dry climate regions with a high impact of drinking water consumption rates and the amount of irrigation water used for agriculture. - Highlights: ► We model Biosphere Dose Conversion Factors for a representative group exposed to radionuclides from a waste repository. ► The BDCF are modeled for different soil types. ► One model is used for the assessment of the influence of climate change during the disposal time frame.

  8. Multi-site assimilation of a terrestrial biosphere model (BETHY) using satellite derived soil moisture data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Mousong; Sholze, Marko

    2017-04-01

    We investigated the importance of soil moisture data on assimilation of a terrestrial biosphere model (BETHY) for a long time period from 2010 to 2015. Totally, 101 parameters related to carbon turnover, soil respiration, as well as soil texture were selected for optimization within a carbon cycle data assimilation system (CCDAS). Soil moisture data from Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) product was derived for 10 sites representing different plant function types (PFTs) as well as different climate zones. Uncertainty of SMOS soil moisture data was also estimated using triple collocation analysis (TCA) method by comparing with ASCAT dataset and BETHY forward simulation results. Assimilation of soil moisture to the system improved soil moisture as well as net primary productivity(NPP) and net ecosystem productivity (NEP) when compared with soil moisture derived from in-situ measurements and fluxnet datasets. Parameter uncertainties were largely reduced relatively to prior values. Using SMOS soil moisture data for assimilation of a terrestrial biosphere model proved to be an efficient approach in reducing uncertainty in ecosystem fluxes simulation. It could be further used in regional an global assimilation work to constrain carbon dioxide concentration simulation by combining with other sources of measurements.

  9. The Jena Diversity Model: Towards a Richer Representation of the Terrestrial Biosphere for Earth System Modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pavlick, R.; Reu, B.; Bohn, K.; Dyke, J.; Kleidon, A.

    2010-12-01

    The terrestrial biosphere is a complex, self-organizing system which is continually both adapting to and altering its global environment. It also exhibits a vast diversity of vegetation forms and functioning. However, the terrestrial biosphere components within current state-of-the-art Earth System Models abstract this diversity in to a handful of relatively static plant functional types. These coarse and static representations of functional diversity might contribute to overly pessimistic projections regarding terrestrial ecosystem responses to scenarios of global change (e.g. Amazonian and boreal forest diebacks). In the Jena Diversity (JeDi) model, we introduce a new approach to vegetation modelling with a richer representation of functional diversity, based not on plant functional types, but on unavoidable plant ecophysiological trade-offs, which we hypothesize should be more stable in time. The JeDi model tests a large number of plant growth strategies. Each growth strategy is simulated using a set of randomly generated parameter values, which characterize its functioning in terms of carbon allocation, ecophysiology, and phenology, which are then linked to the growing conditions at the land surface. The model is constructed in such a way that these parameters inherently lead to ecophysiological trade-offs, which determine whether a growth strategy is able to survive and reproduce under the prevalent climatic conditions. Kleidon and Mooney (2000) demonstrated that this approach is capable of reproducing the geographic distribution of species richness. More recently, we have shown the JeDi model can explain other biogeographical phenomena including the present-day global pattern of biomes (Reu et al., accepted), ecosystem evenness (Kleidon et al. 2009), and possible mechanisms for biome shifts and biodiversity changes under scenarios of global warming (Reu et al., submitted). We have also evaluated the simulated biogeochemical fluxes from JeDi against a variety

  10. Biosphere modeling with climate changes for safety assessment of high-level radioactive waste geological isolation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kato, Tomoko; Ishihara, Yoshinao; Ishiguro, Katsuhiko; Suzuki, Yuji; Naito, Morimasa; Ikeda, Takao; Little, R.

    2001-03-01

    In the safety assessment of a high-level radioactive waste (HLW) disposal system, it is required to estimate radiological impacts on future human beings arising from potential radionuclide releases from a deep repository into the surface environment. In order to estimate the impacts, a biosphere model is developed by reasonably assuming radionuclide migration processes in the surface environment and relevant human lifestyles. Releases from the repository might not occur for many thousands of years after disposal. Over such timescales, it is anticipated that the considerable climatic change, for example, induced by the next glaciation period expected to occur in around ten thousand years from now, will have a significant influence on the near surface environment and associated human lifestyles. In case of taking these evolution effects into account in modeling, it is reasonable to develop several alternative models on biosphere evolution systems consistent with possible future conditions affected by expected climatic changes. In this study, alternative biosphere models were developed taking effects of possible climatic change into account. In the modeling, different climatic states existing in the world from the present climate condition in Japan are utilized as an analogy. Estimation of net effects of the climatic change on biosphere system was made by comparing these alternative biosphere models with a constant biosphere model consistent with the present climatic state through flux to dose conversion factors derived from each one. (author)

  11. Biosphere transport of radionuclides. First modelling by using a selected example

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bundi, A.

    1984-12-01

    The dispersion of radionuclides in the biosphere and their uptake by man via various nutritional pathways is studied using a compartment model. The sample environment is the area of the lower Limmat and Aare valleys. General considerations of the compartmental description of the biosphere are made. The problem of the description of surface features, in particular soil, sediment and water, is studied in detail using the code BIOPATH. This study is intended to be an example of how a model of the biosphere could be constructed. It is shown that this is a reasonable model to calculate the spreading of radionuclides in the biosphere and that it indicates the relative significance of individual compartments, pathways and radionuclides. Calculated values of doses to man, however, should not be used as reference data for safety analyses. (author)

  12. The biosphere at Forsmark. Data, assumptions and models used in the SR-Can assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Karlsson, Sara; Kautsky, Ulrik; Loefgren, Anders; Soederbaeck, Bjoern

    2006-10-01

    This report summarises the method adopted for safety assessment following a radionuclide release into the biosphere. The approach utilises the information about the site as far as possible and presents a way of calculating risk to humans. The parameters are topography, where there is good understanding of the present conditions and the development over time is fairly predictable. The topography affects surface hydrology, sedimentation, size of drainage areas and the characteristics of ecosystems. Other parameters are human nutritional intake, which is assumed to be constant over time, and primary production (photosynthesis), which also is a fairly constant parameter over time. The Landscape Dose Factor approach (LDF) gives an integrated measure for the site and also resolves the issues relating to the size of the group with highest exposure. If this approach is widely accepted as method, still some improvements and refinement are necessary, e.g. collecting missing site data, reanalysing site data, reviewing radionuclide specific data, reformulating ecosystem models and evaluating the results with further sensitivity analysis. The report presents descriptions and estimates not presented elsewhere, as well as summaries of important steps in the biosphere modelling that are presented in more detail in separate reports. The intention is to give the reader a coherent description of the steps taken to calculate doses to biota and humans, including a description of the data used, the rationale for a number of assumptions made during parameterisation, and of how the landscape context is applied in the modelling, and also to present the models used and the results obtained

  13. The biosphere at Forsmark. Data, assumptions and models used in the SR-Can assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Karlsson, Sara; Kautsky, Ulrik; Loefgren, Anders; Soederbaeck, Bjoern (eds.)

    2006-10-15

    This report summarises the method adopted for safety assessment following a radionuclide release into the biosphere. The approach utilises the information about the site as far as possible and presents a way of calculating risk to humans. The parameters are topography, where there is good understanding of the present conditions and the development over time is fairly predictable. The topography affects surface hydrology, sedimentation, size of drainage areas and the characteristics of ecosystems. Other parameters are human nutritional intake, which is assumed to be constant over time, and primary production (photosynthesis), which also is a fairly constant parameter over time. The Landscape Dose Factor approach (LDF) gives an integrated measure for the site and also resolves the issues relating to the size of the group with highest exposure. If this approach is widely accepted as method, still some improvements and refinement are necessary, e.g. collecting missing site data, reanalysing site data, reviewing radionuclide specific data, reformulating ecosystem models and evaluating the results with further sensitivity analysis. The report presents descriptions and estimates not presented elsewhere, as well as summaries of important steps in the biosphere modelling that are presented in more detail in separate reports. The intention is to give the reader a coherent description of the steps taken to calculate doses to biota and humans, including a description of the data used, the rationale for a number of assumptions made during parameterisation, and of how the landscape context is applied in the modelling, and also to present the models used and the results obtained.

  14. Additional Research Needs to Support the GENII Biosphere Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Napier, Bruce A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Snyder, Sandra F. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Arimescu, Carmen [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2013-11-01

    In the course of evaluating the current parameter needs for the GENII Version 2 code (Snyder et al. 2013), areas of possible improvement for both the data and the underlying models have been identified. As the data review was implemented, PNNL staff identified areas where the models can be improved both to accommodate the locally significant pathways identified and also to incorporate newer models. The areas are general data needs for the existing models and improved formulations for the pathway models.

  15. Predicting ecosystem dynamics at regional scales: an evaluation of a terrestrial biosphere model for the forests of northeastern North America.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Medvigy, David; Moorcroft, Paul R

    2012-01-19

    Terrestrial biosphere models are important tools for diagnosing both the current state of the terrestrial carbon cycle and forecasting terrestrial ecosystem responses to global change. While there are a number of ongoing assessments of the short-term predictive capabilities of terrestrial biosphere models using flux-tower measurements, to date there have been relatively few assessments of their ability to predict longer term, decadal-scale biomass dynamics. Here, we present the results of a regional-scale evaluation of the Ecosystem Demography version 2 (ED2)-structured terrestrial biosphere model, evaluating the model's predictions against forest inventory measurements for the northeast USA and Quebec from 1985 to 1995. Simulations were conducted using a default parametrization, which used parameter values from the literature, and a constrained model parametrization, which had been developed by constraining the model's predictions against 2 years of measurements from a single site, Harvard Forest (42.5° N, 72.1° W). The analysis shows that the constrained model parametrization offered marked improvements over the default model formulation, capturing large-scale variation in patterns of biomass dynamics despite marked differences in climate forcing, land-use history and species-composition across the region. These results imply that data-constrained parametrizations of structured biosphere models such as ED2 can be successfully used for regional-scale ecosystem prediction and forecasting. We also assess the model's ability to capture sub-grid scale heterogeneity in the dynamics of biomass growth and mortality of different sizes and types of trees, and then discuss the implications of these analyses for further reducing the remaining biases in the model's predictions.

  16. Illstrative probabilistic biosphere model for Yucca Mountain individual risk calculations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilems, R.E.

    1994-01-01

    The proposed EPA Standards for the disposal of spent fuel, high-level and transuranic radioactive waste prescribe future biosphere--one in which no sustained human activity occurs inside the controlled zone, yet sustained use of groundwater occurs just outside the controlled zone boundary. Performance assessments have generally assumed a person at this location extracts all his water needs directly from the projected contaminated plume for all of his life. Dose to this maximally-exposed individual is too conservative a measure of performance for a nuclear waste repository and does not reflect the isolation characteristics of a site. A better measure is individual risk in which uncertainties in biosphere characteristics for the longer periods of performance, for a site like Yucca Mountain only those characteristics associated with well water scenarios need be prescribed. Such a prescription of the biosphere is appropriate because the goal of the regulations is to provide indicators of future performance so the regulators can make a responsible decision regarding reasonable assurance of public health and safety

  17. Disruptive Event Biosphere Dose Conversion Factor Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    M. A. Wasiolek

    2003-01-01

    This analysis report, ''Disruptive Event Biosphere Dose Conversion Factor Analysis'', is one of the technical reports containing documentation of the ERMYN (Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain Nevada) biosphere model for the geologic repository at Yucca Mountain, its input parameters, and the application of the model to perform the dose assessment for the repository. The biosphere model is one of a series of process models supporting the Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) for the Yucca Mountain repository. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows the interrelationships among the products (i.e., analysis and model reports) developed for biosphere modeling and provides an understanding of how this analysis report contributes to biosphere modeling. This report is one of the two reports that develop biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs), which are input parameters for the TSPA model. The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2003 [DIRS 164186]) describes in detail the conceptual model as well as the mathematical model and lists its input parameters. Model input parameters are developed and described in detail in five analysis report (BSC 2003 [DIRS 160964], BSC 2003 [DIRS 160965], BSC 2003 [DIRS 160976], BSC 2003 [DIRS 161239], and BSC 2003 [DIRS 161241]). The objective of this analysis was to develop the BDCFs for the volcanic ash exposure scenario and the dose factors (DFs) for calculating inhalation doses during volcanic eruption (eruption phase of the volcanic event). The volcanic ash exposure scenario is hereafter referred to as the volcanic ash scenario. For the volcanic ash scenario, the mode of radionuclide release into the biosphere is a volcanic eruption through the repository with the resulting entrainment of contaminated waste in the tephra and the subsequent atmospheric transport and dispersion of contaminated material in the biosphere. The biosphere process

  18. Disruptive Event Biosphere Dose Conversion Factor Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    M. A. Wasiolek

    2003-07-21

    This analysis report, ''Disruptive Event Biosphere Dose Conversion Factor Analysis'', is one of the technical reports containing documentation of the ERMYN (Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain Nevada) biosphere model for the geologic repository at Yucca Mountain, its input parameters, and the application of the model to perform the dose assessment for the repository. The biosphere model is one of a series of process models supporting the Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) for the Yucca Mountain repository. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows the interrelationships among the products (i.e., analysis and model reports) developed for biosphere modeling and provides an understanding of how this analysis report contributes to biosphere modeling. This report is one of the two reports that develop biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs), which are input parameters for the TSPA model. The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2003 [DIRS 164186]) describes in detail the conceptual model as well as the mathematical model and lists its input parameters. Model input parameters are developed and described in detail in five analysis report (BSC 2003 [DIRS 160964], BSC 2003 [DIRS 160965], BSC 2003 [DIRS 160976], BSC 2003 [DIRS 161239], and BSC 2003 [DIRS 161241]). The objective of this analysis was to develop the BDCFs for the volcanic ash exposure scenario and the dose factors (DFs) for calculating inhalation doses during volcanic eruption (eruption phase of the volcanic event). The volcanic ash exposure scenario is hereafter referred to as the volcanic ash scenario. For the volcanic ash scenario, the mode of radionuclide release into the biosphere is a volcanic eruption through the repository with the resulting entrainment of contaminated waste in the tephra and the subsequent atmospheric transport and dispersion of contaminated material in

  19. A biosphere model for use in the SKI Project SITE-94

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barrdahl, R.A.G.

    1995-04-01

    A simple biosphere model has been designed for use in the SKI Project SITE-94 related to a hypothetical repository for spent nuclear fuel on the island of Aespoe near Oskarshamn in southern Sweden. The model provides results in terms of radiation dose per Bq/y, unless otherwise indicated, and results will thus have to be scaled with actual flux of radionuclides per year entering the primary biosphere recipients. The model does not include radioactive decay as there is assumed no delay in the model system, except for where explicitly mentioned. Specifically, no radioactive transitions resulting in daughter nuclides are considered. Calculated yearly individual and population committed (50 years) radiation doses to man are expressed in terms of Sv/y and radiation dose rates to fish are expressed as mSv/h. Calculated radiation doses resulting from the present biosphere model are hypothetical, and should under no circumstances be considered as real. Neither should they be used as quantitative information for decision purposes. The biosphere model is of a rough and primitive character and its precision, relative to the real biosphere in the surroundings of Aespoe is envisaged to be several orders of magnitude

  20. Modeling the impact of climate change in Germany with biosphere models for long-term safety assessment of nuclear waste repositories.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Staudt, C; Semiochkina, N; Kaiser, J C; Pröhl, G

    2013-01-01

    Biosphere models are used to evaluate the exposure of populations to radionuclides from a deep geological repository. Since the time frame for assessments of long-time disposal safety is 1 million years, potential future climate changes need to be accounted for. Potential future climate conditions were defined for northern Germany according to model results from the BIOCLIM project. Nine present day reference climate regions were defined to cover those future climate conditions. A biosphere model was developed according to the BIOMASS methodology of the IAEA and model parameters were adjusted to the conditions at the reference climate regions. The model includes exposure pathways common to those reference climate regions in a stylized biosphere and relevant to the exposure of a hypothetical self-sustaining population at the site of potential radionuclide contamination from a deep geological repository. The end points of the model are Biosphere Dose Conversion factors (BDCF) for a range of radionuclides and scenarios normalized for a constant radionuclide concentration in near-surface groundwater. Model results suggest an increased exposure of in dry climate regions with a high impact of drinking water consumption rates and the amount of irrigation water used for agriculture. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Review of Project SAFE: Comments on biosphere conceptual model description and risk assessment methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Klos, Richard; Wilmot, Roger

    2002-09-01

    The Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company's (SKB's) most recent assessment of the safety of the Forsmark repository for low-level and intermediate-level waste (Project SAFE) is currently undergoing review by the Swedish regulators. As part of its review, the Swedish Radiation Protection Institute (SSI) identified that two components of SAFE require more detailed review: (i) the conceptual model description of the biosphere system, and (ii) SKB's risk assessment methodology. We have reviewed the biosphere system interaction matrix and how this has been used in the identification, justification and description of biosphere models for radiological assessment purposes. The risk assessment methodology has been reviewed considering in particular issues associated with scenario selection, assessment timescale, and the probability and risk associated with the well scenario. There is an extensive range of supporting information on which biosphere modelling in Project SAFE is based. However, the link between this material and the biosphere models themselves is not clearly set out. This leads to some contradictions and mis-matches between description and implementation. One example concerns the representation of the geosphere-biosphere interface. The supporting description of lakes indicates that interaction between groundwaters entering the biosphere through lake bed sediments could lead to accumulations of radionuclides in sediments. These sediments may become agricultural areas at some time in the future. In the numerical modelling of the biosphere carried out in Project SAFE, the direct accumulation of contaminants in bed sediments is not represented. Application of a more rigorous procedure to ensure numerical models are fit for purpose is recommended, paying more attention to issues associated with the geosphere-biosphere interface. A more structured approach to risk assessment would be beneficial, with a better explanation of the difference between

  2. Review of Project SAFE: Comments on biosphere conceptual model description and risk assessment methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Klos, Richard; Wilmot, Roger [Galson Sciences Ltd (United Kingdom)

    2002-09-01

    The Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company's (SKB's) most recent assessment of the safety of the Forsmark repository for low-level and intermediate-level waste (Project SAFE) is currently undergoing review by the Swedish regulators. As part of its review, the Swedish Radiation Protection Institute (SSI) identified that two components of SAFE require more detailed review: (i) the conceptual model description of the biosphere system, and (ii) SKB's risk assessment methodology. We have reviewed the biosphere system interaction matrix and how this has been used in the identification, justification and description of biosphere models for radiological assessment purposes. The risk assessment methodology has been reviewed considering in particular issues associated with scenario selection, assessment timescale, and the probability and risk associated with the well scenario. There is an extensive range of supporting information on which biosphere modelling in Project SAFE is based. However, the link between this material and the biosphere models themselves is not clearly set out. This leads to some contradictions and mis-matches between description and implementation. One example concerns the representation of the geosphere-biosphere interface. The supporting description of lakes indicates that interaction between groundwaters entering the biosphere through lake bed sediments could lead to accumulations of radionuclides in sediments. These sediments may become agricultural areas at some time in the future. In the numerical modelling of the biosphere carried out in Project SAFE, the direct accumulation of contaminants in bed sediments is not represented. Application of a more rigorous procedure to ensure numerical models are fit for purpose is recommended, paying more attention to issues associated with the geosphere-biosphere interface. A more structured approach to risk assessment would be beneficial, with a better explanation of the difference

  3. Biosphere modeling for safety assessment of high-level radioactive waste geological disposal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baba, T.; Ishihara, Y.; Ishiguro, K.; Suzuki, Y.; Naito, M.; Ikeda, T.; Little, R.

    1999-11-01

    In the safety assessment of a high-level radioactive waste disposal system, it is required to estimate future radiological impacts on human beings. Consideration of living habits and the human environment in the future involves a large degree of uncertainty. To avoid endless speculation aimed at reducing such uncertainty, an approach is applied for identifying and justifying a 'reference biosphere' for use in safety assessment in Japan. Considering a wide range of Japanese geological environments, some specific reference biospheres' are developed using an approach consistent with the BIOMOVS II reference biosphere methodology. The models represent the components of the surface environment using compartments between which fluxes of materials (solid/water) and radionuclides are defined by transfer factors. A range of exposure pathways via which such radionuclides enter the food-chain, along with uptake and concentration factors, are also defined. The response to a step function of unit flux from the geosphere is determined for each model. The results show that it is reasonable to use steady-state biosphere responses to a unit-input flux to define nuclide-dependent factors for converting fluxes from the geosphere to doses. This simplifies safety assessment calculations, which then require only look-up tables for such flux to dose conversion rather than fully coupled biosphere models. (author)

  4. Using remote-sensing and the Simple Biosphere model (SiB4) to analyze the seasonality and productivity of the terrestrial biosphere.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheeseman, M.; Denning, S.; Baker, I. T.

    2017-12-01

    Understanding the variability and seasonality of carbon fluxes from the terrestrial biosphere is integral to understanding the mechanisms and drivers of the global carbon cycle. However, there are many regions across the globe where in situ observations are sparse, such as the Amazon rainforest and the African Sahel. The latest version of the Simple-Biosphere model (SiB4) predicts a suite of biophysical variables such as terrestrial carbon flux (GPP), solar induced fluorescence (SIF), fraction of photosynthetically active radiation (FPAR), and leaf area index (LAI). By comparing modeled values to a suite of satellite and in situ observations we produce a robust analysis of the seasonality and productivity of the terrestrial biosphere in a variety of biome types across the globe.

  5. The Impact of Prior Biosphere Models in the Inversion of Global Terrestrial CO2 Fluxes by Assimilating OCO-2 Retrievals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Philip, Sajeev; Johnson, Matthew S.

    2018-01-01

    Atmospheric mixing ratios of carbon dioxide (CO2) are largely controlled by anthropogenic emissions and biospheric fluxes. The processes controlling terrestrial biosphere-atmosphere carbon exchange are currently not fully understood, resulting in terrestrial biospheric models having significant differences in the quantification of biospheric CO2 fluxes. Atmospheric transport models assimilating measured (in situ or space-borne) CO2 concentrations to estimate "top-down" fluxes, generally use these biospheric CO2 fluxes as a priori information. Most of the flux inversion estimates result in substantially different spatio-temporal posteriori estimates of regional and global biospheric CO2 fluxes. The Orbiting Carbon Observatory 2 (OCO-2) satellite mission dedicated to accurately measure column CO2 (XCO2) allows for an improved understanding of global biospheric CO2 fluxes. OCO-2 provides much-needed CO2 observations in data-limited regions facilitating better global and regional estimates of "top-down" CO2 fluxes through inversion model simulations. The specific objectives of our research are to: 1) conduct GEOS-Chem 4D-Var assimilation of OCO-2 observations, using several state-of-the-science biospheric CO2 flux models as a priori information, to better constrain terrestrial CO2 fluxes, and 2) quantify the impact of different biospheric model prior fluxes on OCO-2-assimilated a posteriori CO2 flux estimates. Here we present our assessment of the importance of these a priori fluxes by conducting Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSE) using simulated OCO-2 observations with known "true" fluxes.

  6. Biosphere modelling for safety assessment of geological disposal taking account of denudation of contaminated soils. Research document

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kato, Tomoko

    2003-03-01

    Biosphere models for safety assessment of geological disposal have been developed on the assumption that the repository-derived radionuclides reach surface environment by groundwater. In the modelling, river, deep well and marine have been considered as geosphere-biosphere (GBIs) and some Japanese-specific ''reference biospheres'' have been developed using an approach consistent with the BIOMOVS II/BIOMASS Reference Biosphere Methodology. In this study, it is assumed that the repository-derived radionuclide would reach surface environment in the form of solid phase by uplift and erosion of contaminated soil and sediment. The radionuclides entered into the surface environment by these processes could be distributed between solid and liquid phases and could spread within the biosphere via solid phase and also liquid phase. Based on these concepts, biosphere model that considers variably saturated zone under surface soil (VSZ) as a GBI was developed for calculating the flux-to-dose conversion factors of three exposure groups (farming, freshwater fishing, marine fishing) based on the Reference Biosphere Methodology. The flux-to-dose conversion factors for faming exposure group were the highest, and ''inhalation of dust'', external irradiation from soil'' and ''ingestion of soil'' were the dominant exposure pathways for most of radionuclides considered in this model. It is impossible to compare the flux-to-dose conversion factors calculated by the biosphere model in this study with those calculated by the biosphere models developed in the previous studies because the migration processes considered when the radionuclides entered the surface environment through the aquifer are different among the models; i.e. it has been assumed that the repository-derived radionuclides entered the GBIs such as river, deep well and marine via groundwater without dilution and retardation at the aquifer in the previous biosphere models. Consequently, it must be modelled the migration of

  7. Exploring global carbon turnover and radiocarbon cycling in terrestrial biosphere models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graven, H. D.; Warren, H.

    2017-12-01

    The uptake of carbon into terrestrial ecosystems through net primary productivity (NPP) and the turnover of that carbon through various pathways are the fundamental drivers of changing carbon stocks on land, in addition to human-induced and natural disturbances. Terrestrial biosphere models use different formulations for carbon uptake and release, resulting in a range of values in NPP of 40-70 PgC/yr and biomass turnover times of about 25-40 years for the preindustrial period in current-generation models from CMIP5. Biases in carbon uptake and turnover impact simulated carbon uptake and storage in the historical period and later in the century under changing climate and CO2 concentration, however evaluating global-scale NPP and carbon turnover is challenging. Scaling up of plot-scale measurements involves uncertainty due to the large heterogeneity across ecosystems and biomass types, some of which are not well-observed. We are developing the modelling of radiocarbon in terrestrial biosphere models, with a particular focus on decadal 14C dynamics after the nuclear weapons testing in the 1950s-60s, including the impact of carbon flux trends and variability on 14C cycling. We use an estimate of the total inventory of excess 14C in the biosphere constructed by Naegler and Levin (2009) using a 14C budget approach incorporating estimates of total 14C produced by the weapons tests and atmospheric and oceanic 14C observations. By simulating radiocarbon in simple biosphere box models using carbon fluxes from the CMIP5 models, we find that carbon turnover is too rapid in many of the simple models - the models appear to take up too much 14C and release it too quickly. Therefore many CMIP5 models may also simulate carbon turnover that is too rapid. A caveat is that the simple box models we use may not adequately represent carbon dynamics in the full-scale models. Explicit simulation of radiocarbon in terrestrial biosphere models would allow more robust evaluation of biosphere

  8. Preindustrial nitrous oxide emissions from the land biosphere estimated by using a global biogeochemistry model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Xu

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available To accurately assess how increased global nitrous oxide (N2O emission has affected the climate system requires a robust estimation of the preindustrial N2O emissions since only the difference between current and preindustrial emissions represents net drivers of anthropogenic climate change. However, large uncertainty exists in previous estimates of preindustrial N2O emissions from the land biosphere, while preindustrial N2O emissions on the finer scales, such as regional, biome, or sector scales, have not been well quantified yet. In this study, we applied a process-based Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model (DLEM to estimate the magnitude and spatial patterns of preindustrial N2O fluxes at the biome, continental, and global level as driven by multiple environmental factors. Uncertainties associated with key parameters were also evaluated. Our study indicates that the mean of the preindustrial N2O emission was approximately 6.20 Tg N yr−1, with an uncertainty range of 4.76 to 8.13 Tg N yr−1. The estimated N2O emission varied significantly at spatial and biome levels. South America, Africa, and Southern Asia accounted for 34.12, 23.85, and 18.93 %, respectively, together contributing 76.90 % of global total emission. The tropics were identified as the major source of N2O released into the atmosphere, accounting for 64.66 % of the total emission. Our multi-scale estimates provide a robust reference for assessing the climate forcing of anthropogenic N2O emission from the land biosphere

  9. Overview of the development of a biosphere modelling capability for UK DoE (HMIP)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nancarrow, D.J.; Ashton, J.; Little, R.H.

    1990-01-01

    A programme of research has been funded, since 1982, by the United Kingdom Department of the Environment (Her Majesty's Inspectorate of Pollution, HMIP), to develop a procedure for post-closure radiological assessment of underground disposal facilities for low and intermediate level radioactive wastes. It is conventional to regard the disposal system as comprising the engineered barriers of the repository, the geological setting which provides natural barriers to migration, and the surface environment or biosphere. The requirement of a biosphere submodel, therefore, is to provide estimates, for given radionuclide inputs, of the dose or probability distribution function of dose to a maximally exposed individual as a function of time. This paper describes the development of the capability for biosphere modelling for HMIP in the context of the development of other assessment procedures. 11 refs., 3 figs., 2 tabs

  10. Nominal Performance Biosphere Dose Conversion Factor Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    M. Wasiolek

    2004-01-01

    This analysis report is one of the technical reports containing documentation of the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain, Nevada (ERMYN), a biosphere model supporting the Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) for the license application (LA) for the Yucca Mountain repository. This analysis report describes the development of biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs) for the groundwater exposure scenario, and the development of conversion factors for assessing compliance with the groundwater protection standard. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows the interrelationships among the products (i.e., analysis and model reports) developed for biosphere modeling and provides an understanding of how this analysis report contributes to biosphere modeling. This report is one of two reports that develop biosphere BDCFs, which are input parameters for the TSPA-LA model. The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169460]) describes in detail the ERMYN conceptual model and mathematical model. The input parameter reports, shown to the right of the ''Biosphere Model Report'' in Figure 1-1, contain detailed description of the model input parameters, their development, and the relationship between the parameters and specific features events and processes (FEPs). This report describes biosphere model calculations and their output, the BDCFs, for the groundwater exposure scenario. The objectives of this analysis are to develop BDCFs for the groundwater exposure scenario for the three climate states considered in the TSPA-LA as well as conversion factors for evaluating compliance with the groundwater protection standard. The BDCFs will be used in performance assessment for calculating all-pathway annual doses for a given concentration of radionuclides in groundwater. The conversion factors will be used for calculating gross alpha particle activity in groundwater and the annual dose

  11. Future of Plant Functional Types in Terrestrial Biosphere Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wullschleger, S. D.; Euskirchen, E. S.; Iversen, C. M.; Rogers, A.; Serbin, S.

    2015-12-01

    Earth system models describe the physical, chemical, and biological processes that govern our global climate. While it is difficult to single out one component as being more important than another in these sophisticated models, terrestrial vegetation is a critical player in the biogeochemical and biophysical dynamics of the Earth system. There is much debate, however, as to how plant diversity and function should be represented in these models. Plant functional types (PFTs) have been adopted by modelers to represent broad groupings of plant species that share similar characteristics (e.g. growth form) and roles (e.g. photosynthetic pathway) in ecosystem function. In this review the PFT concept is traced from its origin in the early 1800s to its current use in regional and global dynamic vegetation models (DVMs). Special attention is given to the representation and parameterization of PFTs and to validation and benchmarking of predicted patterns of vegetation distribution in high-latitude ecosystems. These ecosystems are sensitive to changing climate and thus provide a useful test case for model-based simulations of past, current, and future distribution of vegetation. Models that incorporate the PFT concept predict many of the emerging patterns of vegetation change in tundra and boreal forests, given known processes of tree mortality, treeline migration, and shrub expansion. However, representation of above- and especially belowground traits for specific PFTs continues to be problematic. Potential solutions include developing trait databases and replacing fixed parameters for PFTs with formulations based on trait co-variance and empirical trait-environment relationships. Surprisingly, despite being important to land-atmosphere interactions of carbon, water, and energy, PFTs such as moss and lichen are largely absent from DVMs. Close collaboration among those involved in modelling with the disciplines of taxonomy, biogeography, ecology, and remote sensing will be

  12. SITE-94, Biosphere Model for SKI Project on the island of Aspro

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barrdahl, Runo Alfons Gunnar

    2003-01-01

    1 - Description of program or function: A simple biosphere model has been designed for use in the SKI project related to a hypothetical repository for spent nuclear fuel on the island of Aspro near Oskarshamn in Southern Sweden. Project SITE-94 studies the safety aspects of this hypothetical repository. Any weakness in repository performance will reveal itself as a leakage of radionuclides out of the repository, and finally into the biosphere where man and nature are at risk of being exposed. Thus, as the final link in estimating such leakage, a biosphere model will provide an estimate of resulting radiation impact on man and nature. 2 - Methods: The present biosphere model involves a stationary scenario (Reference Scenario) and a climate evolution and geological scenario (Central Scenario). The stationary and time evolution scenarios contain as primary recipients a well and the bay of Borholm, i.e., the waters surrounding the island of Aspo. The time evolution scenario additionally incorporates as primary recipients a waste sample from intrusion and, in a remote future time, the Baltic Sea. Transport of radionuclides within the model system is assumed to be essentially immediate, except for in sediment subject to land rise. Except for this pathway, radioactive decay is therefore not included at all in the model. Land rise sediment is modeled to be subject to radioactive decay from the time the sediment no longer constitutes sea bottom until the desired time point of the model. Correction for radioactive decay is thus generally supposed to be made outside the biosphere model. Unless otherwise indicated, yearly individual and population committed (50 years) radiation doses to man are considered, and all scenarios involve a constant flux of 1 Bq/y of each radionuclide considered into the respective primary recipient. Nominal values of radionuclide flux will finally be multiplied with the radiation dose per one Bq per year resulting from the model in order to obtain

  13. A GoldSim Based Biosphere Assessment Model for a HLW Repository

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Youn-Myoung; Hwang, Yong-Soo; Kang, Chul-Hyung

    2007-01-01

    To demonstrate the performance of a repository, the dose exposure to a human being due to nuclide releases from a repository should be evaluated and the results compared to the dose limit presented by the regulatory bodies. To evaluate a dose rate to an individual due to a long-term release of nuclides from a HLW repository, biosphere assessment models and their implemented codes such as ACBIO1 and ACBIO2 have been developed with the aid of AMBER during the last few years. BIOMASS methodology has been adopted for a HLW repository currently being considered in Korea, which has a similar concept to the Swedish KBS-3 HLW repository. Recently, not just only for verifying the purpose for biosphere assessment models but also for varying the possible alternatives to assess the consequences in a biosphere due to a HLW repository, another version of the assessment modesl has been newly developed in the frame of development programs for a total system performance assessment modeling tool by utilizing GoldSim. Through a current study, GoldSim approach for a biosphere modeling is introduced. Unlike AMBER by which a compartment scheme can be rather simply constructed with an appropriate transition rate between compartments, GoldSim was designed to facilitate the object-oriented modules by which specific models can be addressed in an additional manner, like solving jig saw puzzles

  14. Lumped-parameter models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ibsen, Lars Bo; Liingaard, M.

    2006-12-15

    A lumped-parameter model represents the frequency dependent soil-structure interaction of a massless foundation placed on or embedded into an unbounded soil domain. In this technical report the steps of establishing a lumped-parameter model are presented. Following sections are included in this report: Static and dynamic formulation, Simple lumped-parameter models and Advanced lumped-parameter models. (au)

  15. Modeling the global society-biosphere-climate system : Part 2: Computed scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Alcamo, J.; Van Den Born, G.J.; Bouwman, A.F.; De Haan, B.J.; Klein Goldewijk, K.; Klepper, O.; Krabec, J.; Leemans, R.; Olivier, J.G.J.; Toet, A.M.C.; De Vries, H.J.M.; Van Der Woerd, H.J.

    1994-01-01

    This paper presents scenarios computed with IMAGE 2.0, an integrated model of the global environment and climate change. Results are presented for selected aspects of the society-biosphere-climate system including primary energy consumption, emissions of various greenhouse gases, atmospheric

  16. A Thermal Evolution Model of the Earth Including the Biosphere, Continental Growth and Mantle Hydration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Höning, D.; Spohn, T.

    2014-12-01

    By harvesting solar energy and converting it to chemical energy, photosynthetic life plays an important role in the energy budget of Earth [2]. This leads to alterations of chemical reservoirs eventually affecting the Earth's interior [4]. It further has been speculated [3] that the formation of continents may be a consequence of the evolution life. A steady state model [1] suggests that the Earth without its biosphere would evolve to a steady state with a smaller continent coverage and a dryer mantle than is observed today. We present a model including (i) parameterized thermal evolution, (ii) continental growth and destruction, and (iii) mantle water regassing and outgassing. The biosphere enhances the production rate of sediments which eventually are subducted. These sediments are assumed to (i) carry water to depth bound in stable mineral phases and (ii) have the potential to suppress shallow dewatering of the underlying sediments and crust due to their low permeability. We run a Monte Carlo simulation for various initial conditions and treat all those parameter combinations as success which result in the fraction of continental crust coverage observed for present day Earth. Finally, we simulate the evolution of an abiotic Earth using the same set of parameters but a reduced rate of continental weathering and erosion. Our results suggest that the origin and evolution of life could have stabilized the large continental surface area of the Earth and its wet mantle, leading to the relatively low mantle viscosity we observe at present. Without photosynthetic life on our planet, the Earth would be geodynamical less active due to a dryer mantle, and would have a smaller fraction of continental coverage than observed today. References[1] Höning, D., Hansen-Goos, H., Airo, A., Spohn, T., 2014. Biotic vs. abiotic Earth: A model for mantle hydration and continental coverage. Planetary and Space Science 98, 5-13. [2] Kleidon, A., 2010. Life, hierarchy, and the

  17. Gaian bottlenecks and planetary habitability maintained by evolving model biospheres: The ExoGaia model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicholson, Arwen E.; Wilkinson, David M.; Williams, Hywel T. P.; Lenton, Timothy M.

    2018-03-01

    The search for habitable exoplanets inspires the question - how do habitable planets form? Planet habitability models traditionally focus on abiotic processes and neglect a biotic response to changing conditions on an inhabited planet. The Gaia hypothesis postulates that life influences the Earth's feedback mechanisms to form a self-regulating system, and hence that life can maintain habitable conditions on its host planet. If life has a strong influence, it will have a role in determining a planet's habitability over time. We present the ExoGaia model - a model of simple `planets' host to evolving microbial biospheres. Microbes interact with their host planet via consumption and excretion of atmospheric chemicals. Model planets orbit a `star' which provides incoming radiation, and atmospheric chemicals have either an albedo, or a heat-trapping property. Planetary temperatures can therefore be altered by microbes via their metabolisms. We seed multiple model planets with life while their atmospheres are still forming and find that the microbial biospheres are, under suitable conditions, generally able to prevent the host planets from reaching inhospitable temperatures, as would happen on a lifeless planet. We find that the underlying geochemistry plays a strong role in determining long-term habitability prospects of a planet. We find five distinct classes of model planets, including clear examples of `Gaian bottlenecks' - a phenomenon whereby life either rapidly goes extinct leaving an inhospitable planet, or survives indefinitely maintaining planetary habitability. These results suggest that life might play a crucial role in determining the long-term habitability of planets.

  18. Terrestrial biosphere models underestimate photosynthetic capacity and CO2 assimilation in the Arctic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rogers, Alistair; Serbin, Shawn P; Ely, Kim S; Sloan, Victoria L; Wullschleger, Stan D

    2017-12-01

    Terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) are highly sensitive to model representation of photosynthesis, in particular the parameters maximum carboxylation rate and maximum electron transport rate at 25°C (V c,max.25 and J max.25 , respectively). Many TBMs do not include representation of Arctic plants, and those that do rely on understanding and parameterization from temperate species. We measured photosynthetic CO 2 response curves and leaf nitrogen (N) content in species representing the dominant vascular plant functional types found on the coastal tundra near Barrow, Alaska. The activation energies associated with the temperature response functions of V c,max and J max were 17% lower than commonly used values. When scaled to 25°C, V c,max.25 and J max.25 were two- to five-fold higher than the values used to parameterize current TBMs. This high photosynthetic capacity was attributable to a high leaf N content and the high fraction of N invested in Rubisco. Leaf-level modeling demonstrated that current parameterization of TBMs resulted in a two-fold underestimation of the capacity for leaf-level CO 2 assimilation in Arctic vegetation. This study highlights the poor representation of Arctic photosynthesis in TBMs, and provides the critical data necessary to improve our ability to project the response of the Arctic to global environmental change. No claim to original US Government works. New Phytologist © 2017 New Phytologist Trust.

  19. Biosphere modelling for a deep radioactive waste repository: treatment of the groundwater-soil pathway

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baeyens, B.; Grogan, H.A.; Dorp, F. van

    1991-07-01

    The effect of radionuclide transfer from near-surface groundwater to the rooting zone soil, via a deep soil layer, is modelled in this report. The possible extent of upward solute movement is evaluated for a region in northern Switzerland. The concentration of 237 Np and 129 I in the deep and top soil, and hence growing crops, are evaluated assuming a constant unit activity concentration in the groundwater. A number of parameter variations are considered, namely variable soil sorption coefficients, reduced infiltration of rain water and decreased groundwater flow. A release to an alternative smaller recipient region in northern Switzerland is also evaluated. For the parameter ranges considered uncertainty in the solid-liquid distribution coefficient has the largest effect on overall uncertainty. These calculations have been presented within the international Biosphere Model Validation Study (BIOMOVS). A description of the test scenario, and the model calculations submitted, have been included in this report for completeness. To place the groundwater-soil-crop-man pathway in context, its contribution to the total dose to man is evaluated for the 237 Np- 233 U- 229 Th decay chain. The results obtained using the two-layer soil model, described in this report, are compared with the single-layer soil model used during Project Gewaehr 1985. The more realistic two-layer soil model indicated an increase in importance of the drinking water pathway. It should be noted, however, that not all the critical pathways have been treated in this study with the same degree of conservatism. (author) 16 figs., 15 tabs., 31 refs

  20. Using satellite data to improve the leaf phenology of a global terrestrial biosphere model

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacBean, N.; Maignan, F.; Peylin, P.; Bacour, C.; Bréon, F.-M.; Ciais, P.

    2015-12-01

    Correct representation of seasonal leaf dynamics is crucial for terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs), but many such models cannot accurately reproduce observations of leaf onset and senescence. Here we optimised the phenology-related parameters of the ORCHIDEE TBM using satellite-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index data (MODIS NDVI v5) that are linearly related to the model fAPAR. We found the misfit between the observations and the model decreased after optimisation for all boreal and temperate deciduous plant functional types, primarily due to an earlier onset of leaf senescence. The model bias was only partially reduced for tropical deciduous trees and no improvement was seen for natural C4 grasses. Spatial validation demonstrated the generality of the posterior parameters for use in global simulations, with an increase in global median correlation of 0.56 to 0.67. The simulated global mean annual gross primary productivity (GPP) decreased by ~ 10 PgC yr-1 over the 1990-2010 period due to the substantially shortened growing season length (GSL - by up to 30 days in the Northern Hemisphere), thus reducing the positive bias and improving the seasonal dynamics of ORCHIDEE compared to independent data-based estimates. Finally, the optimisations led to changes in the strength and location of the trends in the simulated vegetation productivity as represented by the GSL and mean annual fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (fAPAR), suggesting care should be taken when using un-calibrated models in attribution studies. We suggest that the framework presented here can be applied for improving the phenology of all global TBMs.

  1. An efficient and accurate representation of complex oceanic and biospheric models of anthropogenic carbon uptake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joos, Fortunat; Bruno, Michele; Fink, Roger; Siegenthaler, Ulrich; Stocker, Thomas F.; Le Quéré, Corinne; Sarmiento, Jorge L.

    1996-07-01

    Establishing the link between atmospheric CO2 concentration and anthropogenic carbon emissions requires the development of complex carbon cycle models of the primary sinks, the ocean and terrestrial biosphere. Once such models have been developed, the potential exists to use pulse response functions to characterize their behaviour. However, the application of response functions based on a pulse increase in atmospheric CO2 to characterize oceanic uptake, the conventional technique, does not yield a very accurate result due to nonlinearities in the aquatic carbon chemistry. Here, we propose the use of an ocean mixed-layer pulse response function that characterizes the surface to deep ocean mixing in combination with a separate equation describing air-sea exchange. The use of a mixed-layer pulse response function avoids the problem arising from the nonlinearities of the carbon chemistry and gives therefore more accurate results. The response function is also valid for tracers other than carbon. We found that tracer uptake of the HILDA and Box-Diffusion model can be represented exactly by the new method. For the Princeton 3-D model, we find that the agreement between the complete model and its pulse substitute is better than 4% for the cumulative uptake of anthropogenic carbon for the period 1765 2300 applying the IPCC stabilization scenarios S450 and S750 and better than 2% for the simulated inventory and surface concentration of bomb-produced radiocarbon. By contrast, the use of atmospheric response functions gives deviations up to 73% for the cumulative CO2 uptake as calculated with the Princeton 3-D model. We introduce the use of a decay response function for calculating the potential carbon storage on land as a substitute for terrestrial biosphere models that describe the overturning of assimilated carbon. This, in combination with an equation describing the net primary productivity permits us to exactly characterize simple biosphere models. As the time scales of

  2. Disruptive Event Biosphere Dose Conversion Factor Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    M. Wasiolek

    2004-01-01

    This analysis report is one of the technical reports containing documentation of the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain, Nevada (ERMYN), a biosphere model supporting the total system performance assessment (TSPA) for the license application (LA) for the Yucca Mountain repository. This analysis report describes the development of biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs) for the volcanic ash exposure scenario, and the development of dose factors for calculating inhalation dose during volcanic eruption. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows the interrelationships among the products (i.e., analysis and model reports) developed for biosphere modeling and provides an understanding of how this analysis report contributes to biosphere modeling. This report is one of two reports that develop biosphere BDCFs, which are input parameters for the TSPA model. The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169460]) describes in detail the ERMYN conceptual model and mathematical model. The input parameter reports, shown to the right of the Biosphere Model Report in Figure 1-1, contain detailed descriptions of the model input parameters, their development and the relationship between the parameters and specific features, events and processes (FEPs). This report describes biosphere model calculations and their output, the BDCFs, for the volcanic ash exposure scenario. This analysis receives direct input from the outputs of the ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169460]) and from the five analyses that develop parameter values for the biosphere model (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169671]; BSC 2004 [DIRS 169672]; BSC 2004 [DIRS 169673]; BSC 2004 [DIRS 169458]; and BSC 2004 [DIRS 169459]). The results of this report are further analyzed in the ''Biosphere Dose Conversion Factor Importance and Sensitivity Analysis''. The objective of this analysis was to develop the BDCFs for the volcanic ash

  3. Disruptive Event Biosphere Dose Conversion Factor Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    M. Wasiolek

    2004-09-08

    This analysis report is one of the technical reports containing documentation of the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain, Nevada (ERMYN), a biosphere model supporting the total system performance assessment (TSPA) for the license application (LA) for the Yucca Mountain repository. This analysis report describes the development of biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs) for the volcanic ash exposure scenario, and the development of dose factors for calculating inhalation dose during volcanic eruption. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows the interrelationships among the products (i.e., analysis and model reports) developed for biosphere modeling and provides an understanding of how this analysis report contributes to biosphere modeling. This report is one of two reports that develop biosphere BDCFs, which are input parameters for the TSPA model. The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169460]) describes in detail the ERMYN conceptual model and mathematical model. The input parameter reports, shown to the right of the Biosphere Model Report in Figure 1-1, contain detailed descriptions of the model input parameters, their development and the relationship between the parameters and specific features, events and processes (FEPs). This report describes biosphere model calculations and their output, the BDCFs, for the volcanic ash exposure scenario. This analysis receives direct input from the outputs of the ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169460]) and from the five analyses that develop parameter values for the biosphere model (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169671]; BSC 2004 [DIRS 169672]; BSC 2004 [DIRS 169673]; BSC 2004 [DIRS 169458]; and BSC 2004 [DIRS 169459]). The results of this report are further analyzed in the ''Biosphere Dose Conversion Factor Importance and Sensitivity Analysis''. The objective of this

  4. Nominal Performance Biosphere Dose Conversion Factor Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    M.A. Wasiolek

    2005-04-28

    This analysis report is one of the technical reports containing documentation of the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain, Nevada (ERMYN), a biosphere model supporting the Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) for the license application (LA) for the Yucca Mountain repository. This analysis report describes the development of biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs) for the groundwater exposure scenario, and the development of conversion factors for assessing compliance with the groundwater protection standards. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows the interrelationships among the products (i.e., analysis and model reports) developed for biosphere modeling and provides an understanding of how this analysis report contributes to biosphere modeling. This report is one of two reports that develop BDCFs, which are input parameters for the TSPA-LA model. The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169460]) describes in detail the ERMYN conceptual model and mathematical model. The input parameter reports, shown to the right of the ''Biosphere Model Report'' in Figure 1-1, contain detailed description of the model input parameters, their development, and the relationship between the parameters and specific features events and processes (FEPs). This report describes biosphere model calculations and their output, the BDCFs, for the groundwater exposure scenario. This analysis receives direct input from the outputs of the ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169460]) and the five analyses that develop parameter values for the biosphere model (BSC 2005 [DIRS 172827]; BSC 2004 [DIRS 169672]; BSC 2004 [DIRS 169673]; BSC 2004 [DIRS 169458]; BSC 2004 [DIRS 169459]). The results of this report are further analyzed in the ''Biosphere Dose Conversion Factor Importance and Sensitivity Analysis

  5. Nominal Performance Biosphere Dose Conversion Factor Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    M.A. Wasiolek

    2005-01-01

    This analysis report is one of the technical reports containing documentation of the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain, Nevada (ERMYN), a biosphere model supporting the Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) for the license application (LA) for the Yucca Mountain repository. This analysis report describes the development of biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs) for the groundwater exposure scenario, and the development of conversion factors for assessing compliance with the groundwater protection standards. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows the interrelationships among the products (i.e., analysis and model reports) developed for biosphere modeling and provides an understanding of how this analysis report contributes to biosphere modeling. This report is one of two reports that develop BDCFs, which are input parameters for the TSPA-LA model. The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169460]) describes in detail the ERMYN conceptual model and mathematical model. The input parameter reports, shown to the right of the ''Biosphere Model Report'' in Figure 1-1, contain detailed description of the model input parameters, their development, and the relationship between the parameters and specific features events and processes (FEPs). This report describes biosphere model calculations and their output, the BDCFs, for the groundwater exposure scenario. This analysis receives direct input from the outputs of the ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169460]) and the five analyses that develop parameter values for the biosphere model (BSC 2005 [DIRS 172827]; BSC 2004 [DIRS 169672]; BSC 2004 [DIRS 169673]; BSC 2004 [DIRS 169458]; BSC 2004 [DIRS 169459]). The results of this report are further analyzed in the ''Biosphere Dose Conversion Factor Importance and Sensitivity Analysis'' (Figure 1-1). The objectives of this analysis are to develop BDCFs for the

  6. Analysis of Critical Issues in Biosphere Assessment Modelling and Site Investigation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Egan, M.J.; Thorne, M.C.; Little, R.H.; Pasco, R.F. [Quintessa Limited, Henley-on-Thames (United Kingdom)

    2003-07-01

    The aim of this document is to present a critical review of issues concerned with the treatment of the biosphere and geosphere-biosphere interface in long-term performance assessment studies for nuclear waste disposal in Sweden. The review covers three main areas of investigation: a review of SKB's plans for undertaking site investigations at candidate locations for the development of a deep geological repository for spent fuel; identification of critical uncertainties associated with SKB's treatment of the geosphere-biosphere interface in recent performance assessments; and a preliminary modelling investigation of the significance of features, events and processes in the near-surface environment in terms of their effect on the accumulation and redistribution of radionuclides at the geosphere-biosphere interface. Overall, SKB's proposals for site investigations are considered to be comprehensive and, if they can be carried out to the specification presented, will constitute a benchmark that other waste management organisations will have to work hard to emulate. The main concern is that expertise for undertaking the investigations and reporting the results could be stretched very thin. The authors have also identified weaknesses in the documentation concerning the collection of evidence for environmental change and on developing scenarios for future environmental change. A fundamental assumption adopted in the renewed assessment of the SFR 1 repository, which is not discussed or justified in any of the documentation that has been reviewed, is that radionuclides enter the water column of the coastal and lake models directly, without passing first through the bed sediments. The modelling study reported herein suggests that SKB's models are robust to range of alternative conceptual descriptions relating to the geosphere-biosphere interface. There are however situations, in which contaminated groundwater is released via sediment rather than directly

  7. Developpement of a GoldSim Biosphere Model, Evaluation, and Its Verification

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Youn Myoung; Hwang, Yong Soo

    2009-12-01

    For the purpose of evaluating dose rate to individual due to long-term release of nuclides from the repository for an HLW or a pyroprocessing repository, a biosphere assessment model and the implemented program based on BIOMASS methodology have been developed by utilizing GoldSim, a general model developing tool. To show its practicability and usability as well as to see the sensitivity of parametric and scenario variations to the annual exposure, some probabilistic calculations are made and investigated. For the cases when changing the exposure groups and associated GBIs as well as varying selected input values, all of which seem important for the biosphere evaluation, dose rate per nuclide release rate is probabilistically calculated and analyzed. A series of comparison studies with JAEA, Japan have been also carried out to verify the model

  8. Models of radionuclide distribution in the biosphere for radioactive waste storage safety assessment, collection of data and calculation of the biosphere dose conversion factors. Research report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Landa, Jiri

    2008-12-01

    The core of the report is structured as follows: The biosphere dose conversion factor (BDCF); Foreign approaches (Sweden - SKB, USA - YMP, BIOPROTA); Definition and conversion factors for activity; Effective dose rate calculation (ingestion, inhalation, external irradiation); Analysis of the activity of the surface compartment, i.e. soil; Basic conceptual models of ecosystems; BDCF calculation/determination; and Systemization of the literature. (P.A.)

  9. Biosphere modelling for the safety assessment of high-level radioactive waste disposal in the Japanese H12 assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kato, Tomoko; Suzuki, Yuji; Ishiguro, Katsuhiko; Naito, Morimasa; Ishiguro, Katsuhiko; Ikeda, Takao; Little, Richard H.; Smith, Graham M.

    2002-01-01

    JNC has an on-going programme of research and development relating to the safety assessment of the deep geological disposal system of high-level radioactive waste (HLW). In the safety assessment of a HLW disposal system, it is often necessary to estimate future radiological impacts on human beings (e.g. radiation dose). In order to estimate dose, consideration needs to be given to the surface environment (biosphere) into which future releases of radionuclides might occur and to the associated future human behaviour. However, for a deep repository, such releases might not occur for many thousands of years after disposal. Over such timescales, it is not possible to predict with any certainty how the biosphere and human behaviour will evolve. To avoid endless speculation aimed at reducing such uncertainty, the reference biosphere le concept has been developed for use in the safety assessment of HLW disposal. The Reference Biospheres Methodology was originally developed by the BIOMOVS II Reference Biospheres Working Group and subsequently enhanced within Theme 1 of the BIOMASS programme. As the aim of the H12 assessment with a hypothetical HLW disposal system was to demonstrate the technical feasibility and reliability of the Japanese disposal concept for a range of geological and surface environments, some assessment specific reference biospheres were developed for the biosphere modelling in the H12 assessment using an approach consistent with the BIOMOVS II/BIOMASS approach. They have been used to derive factors to convert the radionuclide flux from a geosphere to a biosphere into a dose. The influx to dose conversion factor also have been derived for a range of different geosphere-biosphere interfaces (well, river and marine) and potential exposure groups (farming, freshwater-fishing and marine-fishing). This paper summarises the approach used for the derivation of the influx to dose conversion factor also for the range of geosphere-biosphere interfaces and

  10. Nominal Performance Biosphere Dose Conversion Factor Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    M.A. Wasiolek

    2003-07-25

    This analysis report is one of the technical reports containing documentation of the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain, Nevada (ERMYN), a biosphere model supporting the Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) for the license application (LA) for the Yucca Mountain repository. This analysis report describes the development of biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs) for the groundwater exposure scenario, and the development of conversion factors for assessing compliance with the groundwater protection standard. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows the interrelationships among the products (i.e., analysis and model reports) developed for biosphere modeling and provides an understanding of how this analysis report contributes to biosphere modeling. This report is one of two reports that develop biosphere BDCFs, which are input parameters for the TSPA model. The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2003 [DIRS 164186]) describes in detail the ERMYN conceptual model and mathematical model. The input parameter reports (BSC 2003 [DIRS 160964]; BSC 2003 [DIRS 160965]; BSC 2003 [DIRS 160976]; BSC 2003 [DIRS 161239]; BSC 2003 [DIRS 161241]) contain detailed description of the model input parameters. This report describes biosphere model calculations and their output, the BDCFs, for the groundwater exposure scenario. The objectives of this analysis are to develop BDCFs and conversion factors for the TSPA. The BDCFs will be used in performance assessment for calculating annual doses for a given concentration of radionuclides in groundwater. The conversion factors will be used for calculating gross alpha particle activity in groundwater and the annual dose from beta- and photon-emitting radionuclides.

  11. Biospheric feedback effects in a synchronously coupled model of human and Earth systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Thornton, Peter E.; Calvin, Katherine; Jones, Andrew D.; Di Vittorio, Alan V.; Bond-Lamberty, Ben; Chini, Louise; Shi, Xiaoying; Mao, Jiafu; Collins, William D.; Edmonds, Jae; Thomson, Allison; Truesdale, John; Craig, Anthony; Branstetter, Marcia L.; Hurtt, George

    2017-06-12

    Fossil fuel combustion and land-use change are the first and second largest contributors to industrial-era increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration, which is itself the largest driver of present-day climate change1. Projections of fossil fuel consumption and land-use change are thus fundamental inputs for coupled Earth system models (ESM) used to estimate the physical and biological consequences of future climate system forcing2,3. While empirical datasets are available to inform historical analyses4,5, assessments of future climate change have relied on projections of energy and land use based on energy economic models, constrained using historical and present-day data and forced with assumptions about future policy, land-use patterns, and socio-economic development trajectories6. Here we show that the influence of biospheric change – the integrated effect of climatic, ecological, and geochemical processes – on land ecosystems has a significant impact on energy, agriculture, and land-use projections for the 21st century. Such feedbacks have been ignored in previous ESM studies of future climate. We find that synchronous exposure of land ecosystem productivity in the economic system to biospheric change as it develops in an ESM results in a 10% reduction of land area used for crop cultivation; increased managed forest area and land carbon; a 15-20% decrease in global crop price; and a 17% reduction in fossil fuel emissions for a low-mid range forcing scenario7. These simulation results demonstrate that biospheric change can significantly alter primary human system forcings to the climate system. This synchronous two-way coupling approach removes inconsistencies in description of climate change between human and biosphere components of the coupled model, mitigating a major source of uncertainty identified in assessments of future climate projections8-10.

  12. SiB3 Modeled Global 1-degree Hourly Biosphere-Atmosphere Carbon Flux, 1998-2006

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — ABSTRACT: The Simple Biosphere Model, Version 3 (SiB3) was used to produce a global data set of hourly carbon fluxes between the atmosphere and the terrestrial...

  13. Biosphere Modeling and Analyses in Support of Total System Performance Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tappen, J. J.; Wasiolek, M. A.; Wu, D. W.; Schmitt, J. F.; Smith, A. J.

    2002-01-01

    The Nuclear Waste Policy Act of 1982 established the obligations of and the relationship between the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), and the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) for the management and disposal of high-level radioactive wastes. In 1985, the EPA promulgated regulations that included a definition of performance assessment that did not consider potential dose to a member of the general public. This definition would influence the scope of activities conducted by DOE in support of the total system performance assessment program until 1995. The release of a National Academy of Sciences (NAS) report on the technical basis for a Yucca Mountain-specific standard provided the impetus for the DOE to initiate activities that would consider the attributes of the biosphere, i.e. that portion of the earth where living things, including man, exist and interact with the environment around them. The evolution of NRC and EPA Yucca Mountain-specific regulations, originally proposed in 1999, was critical to the development and integration of biosphere modeling and analyses into the total system performance assessment program. These proposed regulations initially differed in the conceptual representation of the receptor of interest to be considered in assessing performance. The publication in 2001 of final regulations in which the NRC adopted standard will permit the continued improvement and refinement of biosphere modeling and analyses activities in support of assessment activities

  14. Biosphere Modeling and Analyses in Support of Total System Performance Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jeff Tappen; M.A. Wasiolek; D.W. Wu; J.F. Schmitt

    2001-01-01

    The Nuclear Waste Policy Act of 1982 established the obligations of and the relationship between the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), and the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) for the management and disposal of high-level radioactive wastes. In 1985, the EPA promulgated regulations that included a definition of performance assessment that did not consider potential dose to a member of the general public. This definition would influence the scope of activities conducted by DOE in support of the total system performance assessment program until 1995. The release of a National Academy of Sciences (NAS) report on the technical basis for a Yucca Mountain-specific standard provided the impetus for the DOE to initiate activities that would consider the attributes of the biosphere, i.e. that portion of the earth where living things, including man, exist and interact with the environment around them. The evolution of NRC and EPA Yucca Mountain-specific regulations, originally proposed in 1999, was critical to the development and integration of biosphere modeling and analyses into the total system performance assessment program. These proposed regulations initially differed in the conceptual representation of the receptor of interest to be considered in assessing performance. The publication in 2001 of final regulations in which the NRC adopted standard will permit the continued improvement and refinement of biosphere modeling and analyses activities in support of assessment activities

  15. Modeling Impact of Urbanization in US Cities Using Simple Biosphere Model SiB2

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Ping; Bounoua, Lahouari; Thome, Kurtis; Wolfe, Robert

    2016-01-01

    We combine Landsat- and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)-based products, as well as climate drivers from Phase 2 of the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS-2) in a Simple Biosphere land surface model (SiB2) to assess the impact of urbanization in continental USA (excluding Alaska and Hawaii). More than 300 cities and their surrounding suburban and rural areas are defined in this study to characterize the impact of urbanization on surface climate including surface energy, carbon budget, and water balance. These analyses reveal an uneven impact of urbanization across the continent that should inform upon policy options for improving urban growth including heat mitigation and energy use, carbon sequestration and flood prevention.

  16. Root structural and functional dynamics in terrestrial biosphere models--evaluation and recommendations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Warren, Jeffrey M; Hanson, Paul J; Iversen, Colleen M; Kumar, Jitendra; Walker, Anthony P; Wullschleger, Stan D

    2015-01-01

    There is wide breadth of root function within ecosystems that should be considered when modeling the terrestrial biosphere. Root structure and function are closely associated with control of plant water and nutrient uptake from the soil, plant carbon (C) assimilation, partitioning and release to the soils, and control of biogeochemical cycles through interactions within the rhizosphere. Root function is extremely dynamic and dependent on internal plant signals, root traits and morphology, and the physical, chemical and biotic soil environment. While plant roots have significant structural and functional plasticity to changing environmental conditions, their dynamics are noticeably absent from the land component of process-based Earth system models used to simulate global biogeochemical cycling. Their dynamic representation in large-scale models should improve model veracity. Here, we describe current root inclusion in models across scales, ranging from mechanistic processes of single roots to parameterized root processes operating at the landscape scale. With this foundation we discuss how existing and future root functional knowledge, new data compilation efforts, and novel modeling platforms can be leveraged to enhance root functionality in large-scale terrestrial biosphere models by improving parameterization within models, and introducing new components such as dynamic root distribution and root functional traits linked to resource extraction. No claim to original US Government works. New Phytologist © 2014 New Phytologist Trust.

  17. A global model of carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus cycles for the terrestrial biosphere

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. P. Wang

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available Carbon storage by many terrestrial ecosystems can be limited by nutrients, predominantly nitrogen (N and phosphorus (P, in addition to other environmental constraints, water, light and temperature. However the spatial distribution and the extent of both N and P limitation at the global scale have not been quantified. Here we have developed a global model of carbon (C, nitrogen (N and phosphorus (P cycles for the terrestrial biosphere. Model estimates of steady state C and N pool sizes and major fluxes between plant, litter and soil pools, under present climate conditions, agree well with various independent estimates. The total amount of C in the terrestrial biosphere is 2767 Gt C, and the C fractions in plant, litter and soil organic matter are 19%, 4% and 77%. The total amount of N is 135 Gt N, with about 94% stored in the soil, 5% in the plant live biomass, and 1% in litter. We found that the estimates of total soil P and its partitioning into different pools in soil are quite sensitive to biochemical P mineralization. The total amount of P (plant biomass, litter and soil excluding occluded P in soil is 17 Gt P in the terrestrial biosphere, 33% of which is stored in the soil organic matter if biochemical P mineralization is modelled, or 31 Gt P with 67% in soil organic matter otherwise.

    This model was used to derive the global distribution and uncertainty of N or P limitation on the productivity of terrestrial ecosystems at steady state under present conditions. Our model estimates that the net primary productivity of most tropical evergreen broadleaf forests and tropical savannahs is reduced by about 20% on average by P limitation, and most of the remaining biomes are N limited; N limitation is strongest in high latitude deciduous needle leaf forests, and reduces its net primary productivity by up to 40% under present conditions.

  18. The Middle Miocene climate as modelled in an atmosphere-ocean-biosphere model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krapp, M.; Jungclaus, J. H.

    2011-11-01

    We present simulations with a coupled atmosphere-ocean-biosphere model for the Middle Miocene 15 million years ago. The model is insofar more consistent than previous models because it captures the essential interactions between ocean and atmosphere and between atmosphere and vegetation. The Middle Miocene topography, which alters both large-scale ocean and atmospheric circulations, causes a global warming of 0.7 K compared to present day. Higher than present-day CO2 levels of 480 and 720 ppm cause a global warming of 2.8 and 4.9 K. The associated water vapour feedback enhances the greenhouse effect which leads to a polar amplification of the warming. These results suggest that higher than present-day CO2 levels are necessary to drive the warm Middle Miocene climate, also because the dynamic vegetation model simulates a denser vegetation which is in line with fossil records. However, we do not find a flatter than present-day equator-to-pole temperature gradient as has been suggested by marine and terrestrial proxies. Instead, a compensation between atmospheric and ocean heat transport counteracts the flattening of the temperature gradient. The acclaimed role of the large-scale ocean circulation in redistributing heat cannot be supported by our results. Including full ocean dynamics, therefore, does not solve the problem of the flat temperature gradient during the Middle Miocene.

  19. Application of biosphere models in the Biomosa project: a comparative assessment of five European radioactive waste disposal sites

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kowe, R.; Mobbs, S.; Proehl, G.; Bergstrom, U.; Kanyar, B.; Olyslaegers, G.; Zeevaert, T.; Simon, I.

    2004-01-01

    The BIOMOSA (Biosphere Models for Safety Assessment of Radioactive Waste Disposal) project is a part of the EC fifth framework research programme. The main goal of this project is the improvement of the scientific basis for the application of biosphere models in the framework of long-term safety studies of radioactive waste disposal facilities. Furthermore, the outcome of the project will provide operators and regulatory bodies with guidelines for performance assessments of repository systems. The study focuses on the development and application of site-specific models and a generic biosphere tool BIOGEM (Biosphere Generic Model), using the experience from the national programmes and the IAEA BIOMASS reference biosphere methodology. The models were applied to 5 typical locations in the EU, resulting in estimates of the annual individual doses to the critical groups and the ranking of the importance of the pathways for each of the sites. The results of the site-specific and generic models were then compared. In all cases the doses calculated by the generic model were less than the doses obtained from the site-specific models. Uncertainty in the results was estimated by means of stochastic calculations which allow a comparison of the overall model uncertainty with the variability across the different sites considered. (author)

  20. Tensit - a novel probabilistic simulation tool for safety assessments. Tests and verifications using biosphere models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jones, Jakob; Vahlund, Fredrik; Kautsky, Ulrik

    2004-06-01

    This report documents the verification of a new simulation tool for dose assessment put together in a package under the name Tensit (Technical Nuclide Simulation Tool). The tool is developed to solve differential equation systems describing transport and decay of radionuclides. It is capable of handling both deterministic and probabilistic simulations. The verifications undertaken shows good results. Exceptions exist only where the reference results are unclear. Tensit utilise and connects two separate commercial softwares. The equation solving capability is derived from the Matlab/Simulink software environment to which Tensit adds a library of interconnectable building blocks. Probabilistic simulations are provided through a statistical software named at{sub R}isk that communicates with Matlab/Simulink. More information about these softwares can be found at www.palisade.com and www.mathworks.com. The underlying intention of developing this new tool has been to make available a cost efficient and easy to use means for advanced dose assessment simulations. The mentioned benefits are gained both through the graphical user interface provided by Simulink and at{sub R}isk, and the use of numerical equation solving routines in Matlab. To verify Tensit's numerical correctness, an implementation was done of the biosphere modules for dose assessments used in the earlier safety assessment project SR 97. Acquired probabilistic results for deterministic as well as probabilistic simulations have been compared with documented values. Additional verification has been made both with another simulation tool named AMBER and also against the international test case from PSACOIN named Level 1B. This report documents the models used for verification with equations and parameter values so that the results can be recreated. For a background and a more detailed description of the underlying processes in the models, the reader is referred to the original references. Finally, in the

  1. The Biosphere.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cloud, Preston

    1983-01-01

    Discusses the earth's biosphere, considering how the microbial, animal and plant life (which make up the biosphere) are sustained by the earth's lithosphere, hydrosphere, and atmosphere. Also considers how these three earth features have powerfully shaped the evolution of these organisms. (JN)

  2. Modeling Surface Climate in US Cities Using Simple Biosphere Model Sib2

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Ping; Bounoua, Lahouari; Thome, Kurtis; Wolfe, Robert; Imhoff, Marc

    2015-01-01

    We combine Landsat- and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)-based products in the Simple Biosphere model (SiB2) to assess the effects of urbanized land on the continental US (CONUS) surface climate. Using National Land Cover Database (NLCD) Impervious Surface Area (ISA), we define more than 300 urban settlements and their surrounding suburban and rural areas over the CONUS. The SiB2 modeled Gross Primary Production (GPP) over the CONUS of 7.10 PgC (1 PgC= 10(exp 15) grams of Carbon) is comparable to the MODIS improved GPP of 6.29 PgC. At state level, SiB2 GPP is highly correlated with MODIS GPP with a correlation coefficient of 0.94. An increasing horizontal GPP gradient is shown from the urban out to the rural area, with, on average, rural areas fixing 30% more GPP than urbans. Cities built in forested biomes have stronger UHI magnitude than those built in short vegetation with low biomass. Mediterranean climate cities have a stronger UHI in wet season than dry season. Our results also show that for urban areas built within forests, 39% of the precipitation is discharged as surface runoff during summer versus 23% in rural areas.

  3. A model of accumulation of radionuclides in biosphere originating from groundwater contamination

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gaerdenaes, Annemieke [Swedish Univ. of Agricultural Sciences, Uppsala (Sweden). Dept. of Soil Sciences; Jansson, Per-Erik; Karlberg, Louise [Royal Inst. of Technology, Stockholm (Sweden). Dept. Land and Water Resources

    2006-03-15

    The objective of this study is to introduce a module in CoupModel describing the transport and accumulation in the biosphere of a radionuclide originating from a ground water contamination. Two model approaches describing the plant uptake of a radionuclide were included, namely passive and active uptake. Passive uptake means in this study that the root uptake rate of a radionuclide is governed by water uptake. Normal mechanism for the passive water uptake is the convective flux of water from the soil to the plant. An example of element taken up passively is Ca. Active plant uptake is in this model defined as the root uptake rate of a radionuclide that is governed by carbon assimilation i.e. photosynthesis and plant growth. The actively taken up element can for example be an element essential to plant, but not available in high enough concentration by passive uptake alone, like the major nutrients N and P or an element that very well resembles a plant nutrient, like Cs resembles K. Active uptake of trace element may occur alone or in addition to passive uptake. Normal mechanism for the active uptake is molecular diffusion from the soil solution to the roots or via any other organism living in symbiosis with the roots like the mycorrhiza. Also a model approach describing adsorption was introduced. CoupModel dynamically couples and simulates the flows of water, heat, carbon and nitrogen in the soil/plant/atmosphere system. Any number of plants may be defined and are divided into roots, leaves, stem and grain. The soil is considered in one vertical profile that may be represented into a maximum of 100 layers. The model is the windows-successor and integrated version of the DOS-models SOIL and SOILN, which have been widely used on different ecosystems and climate regions during 25 years time period. To this soil/plant/atmosphere model were introduced a module describing accumulation of a radionuclide in the biosphere originating from groundwater contamination. The

  4. A model of accumulation of radionuclides in biosphere originating from groundwater contamination

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gaerdenaes, Annemieke; Jansson, Per-Erik; Karlberg, Louise

    2006-03-01

    The objective of this study is to introduce a module in CoupModel describing the transport and accumulation in the biosphere of a radionuclide originating from a ground water contamination. Two model approaches describing the plant uptake of a radionuclide were included, namely passive and active uptake. Passive uptake means in this study that the root uptake rate of a radionuclide is governed by water uptake. Normal mechanism for the passive water uptake is the convective flux of water from the soil to the plant. An example of element taken up passively is Ca. Active plant uptake is in this model defined as the root uptake rate of a radionuclide that is governed by carbon assimilation i.e. photosynthesis and plant growth. The actively taken up element can for example be an element essential to plant, but not available in high enough concentration by passive uptake alone, like the major nutrients N and P or an element that very well resembles a plant nutrient, like Cs resembles K. Active uptake of trace element may occur alone or in addition to passive uptake. Normal mechanism for the active uptake is molecular diffusion from the soil solution to the roots or via any other organism living in symbiosis with the roots like the mycorrhiza. Also a model approach describing adsorption was introduced. CoupModel dynamically couples and simulates the flows of water, heat, carbon and nitrogen in the soil/plant/atmosphere system. Any number of plants may be defined and are divided into roots, leaves, stem and grain. The soil is considered in one vertical profile that may be represented into a maximum of 100 layers. The model is the windows-successor and integrated version of the DOS-models SOIL and SOILN, which have been widely used on different ecosystems and climate regions during 25 years time period. To this soil/plant/atmosphere model were introduced a module describing accumulation of a radionuclide in the biosphere originating from groundwater contamination. The

  5. Olkiluoto biosphere description 2006

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haapanen, R.; Aro, L.; Ilvesniemi, H.; Kareinen, T.; Kirkkala, T.; Mykrae, S.; Turkki, H.; Lahdenperae, A.-M.; Ikonen, A.T.K.

    2007-02-01

    This report summarises the current knowledge of the biosphere of Olkiluoto, and it is the first Biosphere Description Report. The elements considered were climate, topography, land use, overburden, terrestrial vegetation and fauna and sea flora, fauna and water. The principal aim was to present a synthesis of the present state (now to 2020) and the main features of past evolution of the biosphere at the site using currently available data. The lack of site specific parameters and their importance was discussed. Conceptual ecosystem models are presented for land and sea. Currently available data made it possible to calculate the biomass of the terrestrial vegetation and further convert it to carbon. In the case of terrestrial animals, preliminary figures are given for moose alone due to lack of sitespecific data. For the same reason, the sea ecosystem model was not quantified within this work. The ecosystems on Olkiluoto do not deviate from the surrounding areas. Since mires are few on Olkiluoto, forests are the most important land ecosystem. However, coastal areas are the transition zones between land and sea, and also potential sites for deep groundwater discharge. The major interest concerning aquatic ecosystems was laid on four future lakes potentially developing from the sea due to the land up-lift. Current sea sediments near Olkiluoto are future land areas, and thus very important. Spatially, the forest ecosystems of Olkiluoto are now most comprehensively covered, while the temporal coverage is highest in sea ecosystems. Lack of data is greatest in terrestrial fauna and sea sediments. During this work, the system boundaries were crossed and the use of data over disciplines was started. The data were mostly in agreement, but some discrepancies were detected. To solve these, and to supplement the existing data, some recommendations were given. (orig.)

  6. Biosphere Modeling for the Dose Assessment of a HLW Repository: Development of ACBIO

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Youn Myoung; Hwang, Yong Soo; Kang, Chul Hyung

    2006-01-15

    For the purpose of evaluating a dose rate to an individual due to a long-term release of nuclides from a HLW repository, a biosphere assessment model and an implemented code, ACBIO, based on the BIOMASS methodology have been developed by utilizing AMBER, a general compartment modeling tool. To demonstrate its practicability and usability as well as to observe the sensitivity of the compartment scheme, the concentration, the activity in the compartments as well as the annual flux between the compartments at their peak values, were calculated and investigated. For each case when changing the structure of the compartments and GBIs as well as varying selected input Kd values, all of which seem very important among the others, the dose rate per nuclide release rate is calculated separately and analyzed. From the maximum dose rates, the flux to dose conversion factors for each nuclide were derived, which are used for converting the nuclide release rate appearing from the geosphere through various GBIs to dose rates (Sv/y) for an individual in a critical group. It has also been observed that the compartment scheme, the identification of a possible exposure group and the GBIs could all be highly sensitive to the final consequences in a biosphere modeling.

  7. Biospheric feedback effects in a synchronously coupled model of human and Earth systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thornton, Peter E.; Calvin, Katherine; Jones, Andrew D.; di Vittorio, Alan V.; Bond-Lamberty, Ben; Chini, Louise; Shi, Xiaoying; Mao, Jiafu; Collins, William D.; Edmonds, Jae; Thomson, Allison; Truesdale, John; Craig, Anthony; Branstetter, Marcia L.; Hurtt, George

    2017-07-01

    Fossil fuel combustion and land-use change are the two largest contributors to industrial-era increases in atmospheric CO 2 concentration. Projections of these are thus fundamental inputs for coupled Earth system models (ESMs) used to estimate the physical and biological consequences of future climate system forcing. While historical data sets are available to inform past and current climate analyses, assessments of future climate change have relied on projections of energy and land use from energy-economic models, constrained by assumptions about future policy, land-use patterns and socio-economic development trajectories. Here we show that the climatic impacts on land ecosystems drive significant feedbacks in energy, agriculture, land use and carbon cycle projections for the twenty-first century. We find that exposure of human-appropriated land ecosystem productivity to biospheric change results in reductions of land area used for crops; increases in managed forest area and carbon stocks; decreases in global crop prices; and reduction in fossil fuel emissions for a low-mid-range forcing scenario. The feedbacks between climate-induced biospheric change and human system forcings to the climate system--demonstrated here--are handled inconsistently, or excluded altogether, in the one-way asynchronous coupling of energy-economic models to ESMs used to date.

  8. Biospheric feedback effects in a synchronously coupled model of human and Earth systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thornton, P. E.; Calvin, K. V.; Jones, A. D.; Di Vittorio, A. V.; Bond-Lamberty, B. P.; Chini, L. P.; Shi, X.; Mao, J.; Collins, W. D.; Edmonds, J.; Hurtt, G. C.

    2017-12-01

    Fossil fuel combustion and land-use change are the two largest contributors to industrial-era increases in atmospheric CO2 concentration. Projections of these are thus fundamental inputs for coupled Earth system models (ESMs) used to estimate the physical and biological consequences of future climate system forcing. While historical datasets are available to inform past and current climate analyses, assessments of future climate change have relied on projections of energy and land use from energy economic models, constrained by assumptions about future policy, land-use patterns, and socio-economic development trajectories. In this work we show that the climatic impacts on land ecosystems drives significant feedbacks in energy, agriculture, land-use, and carbon cycle projections for the 21st century. We find that exposure of human appropriated land ecosystem productivity to biospheric change results in reductions of land area used for crops; increases in managed forest area and carbon stocks; decreases in global crop prices; and reduction in fossil fuel emissions for a low-mid range forcing scenario. Land ecosystem response to increased carbon dioxide concentration, increased anthropogenic nitrogen deposition, and changes in temperature and precipitation all play a role. The feedbacks between climate-induced biospheric change and human system forcings to the climate system demonstrated in this work are handled inconsistently, or excluded altogether, in the one-way asynchronous coupling of energy economic models to ESMs used to date.

  9. Response model parameter linking

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Barrett, M.L.D.

    2015-01-01

    With a few exceptions, the problem of linking item response model parameters from different item calibrations has been conceptualized as an instance of the problem of equating observed scores on different test forms. This thesis argues, however, that the use of item response models does not require

  10. Nominal Performance Biosphere Dose Conversion Factor Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    M. Wasiolek

    2004-09-08

    This analysis report is one of the technical reports containing documentation of the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain, Nevada (ERMYN), a biosphere model supporting the Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) for the license application (LA) for the Yucca Mountain repository. This analysis report describes the development of biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs) for the groundwater exposure scenario, and the development of conversion factors for assessing compliance with the groundwater protection standard. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows the interrelationships among the products (i.e., analysis and model reports) developed for biosphere modeling and provides an understanding of how this analysis report contributes to biosphere modeling. This report is one of two reports that develop biosphere BDCFs, which are input parameters for the TSPA-LA model. The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169460]) describes in detail the ERMYN conceptual model and mathematical model. The input parameter reports, shown to the right of the ''Biosphere Model Report'' in Figure 1-1, contain detailed description of the model input parameters, their development, and the relationship between the parameters and specific features events and processes (FEPs). This report describes biosphere model calculations and their output, the BDCFs, for the groundwater exposure scenario. The objectives of this analysis are to develop BDCFs for the groundwater exposure scenario for the three climate states considered in the TSPA-LA as well as conversion factors for evaluating compliance with the groundwater protection standard. The BDCFs will be used in performance assessment for calculating all-pathway annual doses for a given concentration of radionuclides in groundwater. The conversion factors will be used for calculating gross alpha particle

  11. A comparative Study between GoldSim and AMBER Based Biosphere Assessment Models for an HLW Repository

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Youn-Myoung; Hwang, Yong-Soo

    2007-01-01

    To demonstrate the performance of a repository, the dose exposure rate to human being due to long-term nuclide releases from a high-level waste repository (HLW) should be evaluated and the results compared to the dose limit presented by the regulatory bodies. To evaluate such a dose rate to an individual, biosphere assessment models have been developed and implemented for a practical calculation with the aid of such commercial tools as AMBER and GoldSim, both of which are capable of probabilistic and deterministic calculation. AMBER is a general purpose compartment modeling tool and GoldSim is another multipurpose simulation tool for dynamically modeling complex systems, supporting a higher graphical user interface than AMBER and a postprocessing feature. And also unlike AMBER, any kind of compartment scheme can be rather simply constructed with an appropriate transition rate between compartments, GoldSim is designed to facilitate the object-oriented modules to address any specialized programs, similar to solving jig saw puzzles. During the last couple of years a compartment modeling approach for a biosphere has been mainly carried out with AMBER in KAERI in order to conservatively or rather roughly provide dose conversion factors to get the final exposure rate due to a nuclide flux into biosphere over various geosphere-biosphere interfaces (GBIs) calculated through nuclide transport modules. This caused a necessity for a newly devised biosphere model that could be coupled to a nuclide transport model with less conservatism in the frame of the development of a total system performance assessment modeling tool, which could be successfully done with the aid of GoldSim. Therefore, through the current study, some comparison results of the AMBER and the GoldSim approaches for the same case of a biosphere modeling without any consideration of geosphere transport are introduced by extending a previous study

  12. Biosphere modelling for dose assessments of radioactive waste repositories. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Klos, R.

    1996-09-01

    The aims of the Complementary Studies Working Group were: to investigate and explain differences which exist between contemporary models with respect to how, for a given test case, they represent the modelled Features, Events and Processes (FEPs) and how the nature of these representations affects the calculational end-points; to determine the most appropriate ways of representing key FEPs; to identify where knowledge needs to be improved to give better representations of these key FEPs in the future and where simplifications of existing formulations might be possible; to show that the modelling undertaken is suitable for purpose, in that it is robust and that it is unlikely that the radiological consequences calculated by the models would be underestimated (so that any conservative bias in the models is justified); to build confidence in the available modelling tools; to extend the work undertaken in the first phase of BIOMOVS to include consideration of radiological dose. Ten modelling groups from Western Europe and Canada have participated, revealing a variety of representations of radionuclide transport processes and techniques for calculating dose. The exercise has focused on the ways in which key FEPs are represented with the intention of determining the robustness or otherwise of existing representations. This has been achieved by applying a well defined dataset representative of a Central European inland valley. Human habits and lifestyle are chosen to be representative of a subsistence agricultural community. Climatic conditions are those of the present day. Many of the conclusions have relevance beyond the immediate concerns of the Central European biospheres and, although care should be exercised when terms of reference differ greatly from the system detailed here, much has been learned which has wider applicability. The exercise has successfully compared not only the behaviour of biosphere models for waste disposal assessments, but has also provided the

  13. Quantifying the Representation Error of Land Biosphere Models using High Resolution Footprint Analyses and UAS Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanson, C. V.; Schmidt, A.; Law, B. E.; Moore, W.

    2015-12-01

    The validity of land biosphere model outputs rely on accurate representations of ecosystem processes within the model. Typically, a vegetation or land cover type for a given area (several Km squared or larger resolution), is assumed to have uniform properties. The limited spacial and temporal resolution of models prevents resolving finer scale heterogeneous flux patterns that arise from variations in vegetation. This representation error must be quantified carefully if models are informed through data assimilation in order to assign appropriate weighting of model outputs and measurement data. The representation error is usually only estimated or ignored entirely due to the difficulty in determining reasonable values. UAS based gas sensors allow measurements of atmospheric CO2 concentrations with unprecedented spacial resolution, providing a means of determining the representation error for CO2 fluxes empirically. In this study we use three dimensional CO2 concentration data in combination with high resolution footprint analyses in order to quantify the representation error for modelled CO2 fluxes for typical resolutions of regional land biosphere models. CO2 concentration data were collected using an Atlatl X6A hexa-copter, carrying a highly calibrated closed path infra-red gas analyzer based sampling system with an uncertainty of ≤ ±0.2 ppm CO2. Gas concentration data was mapped in three dimensions using the UAS on-board position data and compared to footprints generated using WRF 3.61. Chad Hanson, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR Andres Schmidt, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR Bev Law, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR

  14. Development of a distributed biosphere hydrological model and its evaluation with the Southern Great Plains Experiments (SGP97 and SGP99)

    Science.gov (United States)

    A distributed biosphere hydrological model, the so called water and energy budget-based distributed hydrological model (WEB-DHM), has been developed by fully coupling a biosphere scheme (SiB2) with a geomorphology-based hydrological model (GBHM). SiB2 describes the transfer of turbulent fluxes (ener...

  15. Development of atmosphere-soil-vegetation model for investigation of radioactive materials transport in terrestrial biosphere

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Katata, Genki; Nagai, Haruyasu; Zhang, Leiming; Held, Andreas; Serca, Dominique; Klemm, Otto

    2010-01-01

    In order to investigate the transport of radionuclides in the terrestrial biosphere we have developed a one-dimensional numerical model named SOLVEG that predicts the transfer of water, heat, and gaseous and particulate matters in atmosphere-soil-vegetation system. The SOLVEG represents atmosphere, soil, and vegetation as an aggregation of several layers. Basic equations used in the model are solved using the finite difference method. Most of predicted variables are interrelated with the source/sink terms of momentum, water, heat, gases, and particles based on mathematically described biophysical processes in atmosphere, soil and vegetation. The SOLVEG can estimate dry, wet and fog deposition of gaseous and particulate matters at each canopy layer. Performance tests of the SOLVEG with several observational sites were carried out. The SOLVEG predicted the observed temporal changes in water vapor, CO 2 , and ozone fluxes over vegetated surfaces. The SOLVEG also reproduced measured fluxes of fog droplets and of fine aerosols over the forest. (author)

  16. Mesoscale covariance of transport and CO2 fluxes: Evidence from observations and simulations using the WRF-VPRM coupled atmosphere-biosphere model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ahmadov, R.; Gerbig, C.; Kretschmer, R.; Koerner, S.; Neininger, B.; Dolman, A.J.; Sarrat, C.

    2007-01-01

    We developed a modeling system which combines a mesoscale meteorological model, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, with a diagnostic biospheric model, the Vegetation Photosynthesis and Respiration (VPRM). The WRF-VPRM modeling system was designed to realistically simulate

  17. Modelling sequential Biosphere systems under Climate change for radioactive waste disposal. Project BIOCLIM

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Texier, D.; Degnan, P.; Loutre, M.F.; Lemaitre, G.; Paillard, D.; Thorne, M.

    2000-01-01

    The BIOCLIM project (Modelling Sequential Biosphere systems under Climate change for Radioactive Waste Disposal) is part of the EURATOM fifth European framework programme. The project was launched in October 2000 for a three-year period. It is coordinated by ANDRA, the French national radioactive waste management agency. The project brings together a number of European radioactive waste management organisations that have national responsibilities for the safe disposal of radioactive wastes, and several highly experienced climate research teams. Waste management organisations involved are: NIREX (UK), GRS (Germany), ENRESA (Spain), NRI (Czech Republic) and ANDRA (France). Climate research teams involved are: LSCE (CEA/CNRS, France), CIEMAT (Spain), UPMETSIMM (Spain), UCL/ASTR (Belgium) and CRU (UEA, UK). The Environmental Agency for England and Wales provides a regulatory perspective. The consulting company Enviros Consulting (UK) assists ANDRA by contributing to both the administrative and scientific aspects of the project. This paper describes the project and progress to date. (authors)

  18. Modelling of present and future hydrology and solute transport at Forsmark. SR-Site Biosphere

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bosson, Emma (Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co., Stocholm (Sweden)); Sassner, Mona; Sabel, Ulrika; Gustafsson, Lars-Goeran (DHI Sverige AB (Sweden))

    2010-10-15

    Radioactive waste from nuclear power plants in Sweden is managed by the Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co, SKB. SKB has performed site investigations at two different locations in Sweden, referred to as the Forsmark and Laxemar-Simpevarp areas, with the objective of siting a final repository for high-level radioactive waste. In 2009 a decision was made to focus on the Forsmark site. This decision was based on a large amount of empirical evidence suggesting Forsmark to be more suitable for a geological repository /SKB 2010b/. This report presents model results of numerical flow and transport modelling of surface water and near-surface groundwater at the Forsmark site for present and future conditions. Both temperate and periglacial climates have been simulated. Also different locations of the shoreline have been applied to the model, as well as different models of vegetation and Quaternary deposits. The modelling was performed using the modelling tool MIKE SHE and was based on the SDM-Site Forsmark MIKE SHE model (presented by Bosson et al. in SKB report R-08-09). The present work is a part of the biosphere modelling performed for the SR-Site safety assessment. The Forsmark area has a flat, small-scale topography. The study area is almost entirely below 20 m.a.s.l. (metres above sea level). There is a strong correlation between the topography of the ground surface and the ground water level in the Quaternary deposits (QD); thus, the surface water divides and the groundwater divides for the QD can be assumed to coincide. No major water courses flow through the catchment. Small brooks, which often dry out in the summer, connect the different sub-catchments with each other. The main lakes in the area, Lake Bolundsfjaerden, Lake Fiskarfjaerden, Lake Gaellsbotraesket and Lake Eckarfjaerden, all have sizes of less than one km2. The lakes are in general shallow. Approximately 70% of the catchment areas are covered by forest. Agricultural land is only present in

  19. Landscape model configuration for biosphere analysis of selected cases in TILA-99 and in KBS-3H safety evaluation, 2007

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Broed, R.

    2008-08-01

    In this report, the configuration of a landscape model based on the Terrain and ecosystems development model of the Olkiluoto site, 2006, is presented in details. The landscape model is created especially for use in the simulations of release cases in the KBS-3H safety evaluation and for recalculating some older cases originally presented in the TILA-99 safety assessment. The report presents results for constant unit release rate on the landscape doses, and activity concentrations and radionuclide inventories in the various environmental media. Results on the specific release cases are left for subsequent reports. In this report, the discussion and presentation of the results is focused on a limited set of radionuclides (Cl-36, Tc-99, I-129, Ra-226, Th-230) of different behaviour in the environment. However, same results have been calculated also for a large variety of nuclides present in the release terms to the biosphere. In the sensitivity analysis the parameters most affecting to the results are identified. They are further evaluated using data quality index, reflecting to the confidence on the underlying data and knowledge base. These are then combined in the multi-dimensional uncertainty analysis, revealing water balance, the fraction of precipitation intercepted by the foliage, concentration ratios in forests, Kds in sediments, river width and wetland parameters in general as the most important factors, in respect of the unit release rate, calling for further research at the moment, together with some structural improvements to the biosphere object modules. Uncertainties related to the release locations are studied with a number of cases assuming various patterns of release distribution to several objects as well as the release term received by single objects. The maximum landscape doses per unit release rate vary between one and less than four orders of magnitude across the cases depending on the nuclide, or from more than two less to slightly more than one

  20. Biosphere modeling for safety assessment to high-level radioactive waste geological disposal. Application of reference biosphere methodology to safety assesment of geological disposal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baba, Tomoko; Ishihara, Yoshinao; Ishiguro, Katsuhiko; Suzuki, Yuji; Naito, Morimasa

    2000-01-01

    In the safety assessment of a high-level radioactive waste disposal system, it is required to estimate future radiological impacts on human beings. Consideration of living habits and the human environment in the future involves a large degree of uncertainty. To avoid endless speculation aimed at reducing such uncertainty, an approach is applied for identifying and justifying a 'reference biosphere' for use in safety assessment in Japan. considering a wide range of Japanese geological environments, saline specific reference biospheres' were developed using an approach consistent with the BIOMOVS II reference biosphere methodology. (author)

  1. Carbon-14 in the biosphere: Modeling and supporting research for the Canadian Nuclear Fuel Waste Management program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sheppard, S.C.; Amiro, B.D.; Sheppard, M.I.; Stephenson, M.; Zach, R.; Bird, G.A.

    1994-01-01

    Carbon-14 stands apart from most of the radionuclides present in nuclear fuel waste for several reasons. It has a relatively long radiological half-life and low retardation by granitic geological media so that 14 C is superceded only by 36 Cl and 129 I in potential release to the biosphere from unprocessed used fuel. In the biosphere, its importance continues because it is readily incorporated into the carbon compounds of life. Much of the behavior of 14 C in the biosphere can be conceptualized as isotopic exchange, where the 14 C mixes with 12 C from the biosphere. However, because of lack of data, the authors model the behavior of 14 C only partly as isotopic exchange, with most of the calculations relying on compartment transfer models. The authors experimental work has shown that soil-to-plant transfer may be dominated by the soil-atmosphere-plant pathway. Gaseous loss of 14 C from soils and lakes is significant. However, recalcitrant forms may persist in soils and sediments for long time periods. The impact of these forms is expected to be relatively low because their bioavailability is correspondingly low. Future research should be directed to support full modeling of 14 C as a series of isotopic exchange processes

  2. European-wide simulations of croplands using an improved terrestrial biosphere model: Phenology and productivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, P. C.; de Noblet-Ducoudré, N.; Ciais, P.; Peylin, P.; Viovy, N.; Meurdesoif, Y.; Bondeau, A.

    2010-03-01

    Aiming at producing improved estimates of carbon source/sink spatial and interannual patterns across Europe (35% croplands), this work combines the terrestrial biosphere model Organizing Carbon and Hydrology in Dynamic Ecosystems (ORCHIDEE), for vegetation productivity, water balance, and soil carbon dynamics, and the generic crop model Simulateur Multidisciplinaire pour les Cultures Standard (STICS), for phenology, irrigation, nitrogen balance, and harvest. The ORCHIDEE-STICS model, relying on three plant functional types for the representation of temperate agriculture, is evaluated over the last few decades at various spatial and temporal resolutions. The simulated leaf area index seasonal cycle is largely improved relative to the original ORCHIDEE simulating grasslands, and compares favorably with remote-sensing observations (correlation doubles over Europe). Crop yield is derived from annual net primary productivity and compared with wheat and grain maize harvest data for five European countries. Discrepancies between 30 year mean simulated and reported yields are large in Mediterranean countries. Interannual variability amplitude expressed relative to the mean is reduced toward the observed variability (≈10%) when using ORCHIDEE-STICS. Overall, this study highlights the importance of accounting for the specific phenologies of crops sown both in winter and in spring and for irrigation applied to spring crops in regional/global models of the terrestrial carbon cycle. Limitations suggest to account for temporal and spatial variability in agricultural practices for further simulation improvement.

  3. Biosphere modelling for a deep radioactive waste repository: site-specific consideration of the groundwater-soil pathway

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grogan, H.A.; Baeyens, B.; Mueller, H.; Dorp, F. van

    1991-07-01

    Scenario evaluations indicate that groundwater is the most probable pathway for released radionuclides to reach the biosphere from a deep underground nuclear waste repository. This report considers a small valley in northern Switzerland where the transport of groundwater to surface soil might be possible. The hydrological situation has been examined to allow a system of compartments and fluxes for modelling this pathway with respect to the release of radionuclides from an underground repository to be produced. Assuming present day conditions the best estimate surface soil concentrations are calculated by dividing the soil into two layers (deep soil, surface soil) and assuming an annual upward flux of 10 mm from the groundwater through the two soil layers. A constant unit activity concentration is assumed for the radionuclides in the groundwater. It is concluded that the resultant best estimate values must still be considered to be biased on the conservative side, in view of the fact that the more typical situation is likely to be that no groundwater reaches the surface soil. Upper and lower estimates for the surface soil radionuclide concentrations are based on the parameter perturbation results which were carried out for three key parameters, i.e. precipitation surplus, upward flux and solid-liquid distribution coefficients (K d ). It is noted that attention must be given to the functional relationships which exist between various model parameters. Upper estimates for the surface soil concentration are determined assuming a higher annual upward flux (100 mm) as well as a more conservative K d value compared with the base case. This gives rise to surface soil concentrations more than two orders of magnitude higher than the best estimate values. The lower estimated are more easily assigned assuming that no activity reaches the surface soil via this pathway. (author) 18 figs., 4 tabs., refs

  4. European Biospheric Network Takes Off

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brovkin, Victor; Reick, Christian; van Bodegom, Peter

    2010-04-01

    Opening Symposium of the TERRABITES Network; Hamburg, Germany, 9-11 February 2010; The huge amount of recently acquired information about the functioning of the terrestrial biosphere and the ever increasing spatial resolution of Earth system models call for a new level of integrating efforts among biosphere modelers, developers of ecological theory, and data-gathering communities. Responding to this call, a new European network, Terrestrial Biosphere in the Earth System (TERRABITES), held its opening symposium in Germany. The meeting was organized jointly with another recently founded European network, Advancing the Integrated Monitoring of Trace Gas Exchange Between Biosphere and Atmosphere (ABBA). Almost 100 scientific contributions covered the latest advances in modeling ecophysiological and biogeochemical processes; analyses of model constraints set by measurements of water and carbon dioxide (CO2) fluxes, including carbon isotopes; and new perspectives in using remote sensing data for evaluation of global terrestrial biosphere models.

  5. Water Management in the Camargue Biosphere Reserve: Insights from Comparative Mental Models Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raphael Mathevet

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Mental models are the cognitive representations of the world that frame how people interact with the world. Learning implies changing these mental models. The successful management of complex social-ecological systems requires the coordination of actions to achieve shared goals. The coordination of actions requires a level of shared understanding of the system or situation; a shared or common mental model. We first describe the elicitation and analysis of mental models of different stakeholder groups associated with water management in the Camargue Biosphere Reserve in the Rhône River delta on the French Mediterranean coast. We use cultural consensus analysis to explore the degree to which different groups shared mental models of the whole system, of stakeholders, of resources, of processes, and of interactions among these last three. The analysis of the elicited data from this group structure enabled us to tentatively explore the evidence for learning in the nonstatute Water Board; comprising important stakeholders related to the management of the central Rhône delta. The results indicate that learning does occur and results in richer mental models that are more likely to be shared among group members. However, the results also show lower than expected levels of agreement with these consensual mental models. Based on this result, we argue that a careful process and facilitation design can greatly enhance the functioning of the participatory process in the Water Board. We conclude that this methodology holds promise for eliciting and comparing mental models. It enriches group-model building and participatory approaches with a broader view of social learning and knowledge-sharing issues.

  6. Low apparent quantum yield in Arctic plants suggests that terrestrial biosphere models will over estimate carbon assimilation at high latitudes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rogers, A.; Serbin, S.; Ely, K.; Wullschleger, S.

    2017-12-01

    Estimates of Gross Primary Productivity (GPP) by terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) rely on accurate model representation of photosynthesis. In the Arctic, TBM uncertainty over GPP is the dominant driver of an uncertain Arctic carbon cycle. Previously we have shown that TBMs underestimate light saturated photosynthesis due to poor model representation of maximum carboxylation capacity and maximum electron transport. Here we extend this work to investigate model representation of the response of photosynthesis to irradiance. TBMs use an empirical relationship, typically a non-rectangular hyperbola, to estimate potential electron transport rate from incident irradiance. The key model inputs used to parameterize this formulation are; absorptance, quantum yield, and a curvature factor. TBMs show a high divergence in the response of photosynthesis to irradiance driven in part by variation in these parameters. In addition, most existing measurements used to parameterize TBMs have been made within a narrow temperature range (20-30°C) and the scarcity of data collected at low temperature has been highlighted as an important driver of model uncertainty at high latitudes. To address this issue we measured photosynthetic light response curves at 5 and 15°C and the leaf optical properties of six species growing on the Barrow Environmental Observatory, Barrow, Alaska. We determined leaf absorbtance, the convexity term, and apparent quantum yield. Our key finding was that measured apparent quantum yield was lower than model estimates, particularly at 5°C. Our results show that TBMs that rely on relatively high theoretical estimates of apparent quantum yield will likely overestimate carbon assimilation at low temperature and low irradiance.

  7. The Earth's Biosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    2002-01-01

    In the last five years, scientists have been able to monitor our changing planet in ways never before possible. The Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-View Sensor (SeaWiFS), aboard the OrbView-2 satellite, has given researchers an unprecedented view of the biological engine that drives life on Earth-the countless forms of plants that cover the land and fill the oceans. 'There is no question the Earth is changing. SeaWiFS has enabled us, for the first time, to monitor the biological consequences of that change-to see how the things we do, as well as natural variability, affect the Earth's ability to support life,' said Gene Carl Feldman, SeaWiFS project manager at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Md. SeaWiFS data, based on continuous daily global observations, have helped scientists make a more accurate assessment of the oceans' role in the global carbon cycle. The data provide a key parameter in a number of ecological and environmental studies as well as global climate-change modeling. The images of the Earth's changing land, ocean and atmosphere from SeaWiFS have documented many previously unrecognized phenomena. The image above shows the global biosphere from June 2002 measured by SeaWiFS. Data in the oceans is chlorophyll concentration, a measure of the amount of phytoplankton (microscopic plants) living in the ocean. On land SeaWiFS measures Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, an indication of the density of plant growth. For more information and images, read: SeaWiFS Sensor Marks Five Years Documenting Earth'S Dynamic Biosphere Image courtesy SeaWiFS project and copyright Orbimage.

  8. Improvement of biosphere assessment methodology for performance assessment of geological disposal facility. 2. Outline

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miki, Takahito; Yoshida, Hideji; Ikeda, Takao

    2002-02-01

    This report contains results on study of Geosphere-Biosphere Interface (GBI), development of biosphere assessment model for gaseous and volatile radionuclides, review of biosphere assessment and research on safety indicators. Regarding study of Geosphere-Biosphere Interface (GBI), FEP database for the Geosphere-Biosphere Transitions Zone (GBTZ) were compiled. Furthermore, release scenarios were identified from the FEP database, and review of conservativeness and robustness of the conceptual and mathematical models developed previously by JNC were undertaken. Regarding development of biosphere assessment model for gaseous and volatile radionuclides, the conceptual and mathematical models were developed, and it was confirmed that the impact of the exposure pathway regarding gas release to flux-to-dose conversion factor is small. Regarding review of biosphere assessment data, the parameters which were used on JNC second progress report were reviewed and classified using the biosphere data protocol categories. Furthermore, the data for key parameter (important but poorly characterized parameters) were revised. Regarding research on safety indicator, some kinds of safety indicators, especially for the non-radioactive contaminant and for the non-human biota, are reviewed. (author)

  9. Incorporating representation of agricultural ecosystems and management within a dynamic biosphere model: Approach, validation, and significance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kucharik, C.

    2004-12-01

    At the scale of individual fields, crop models have long been used to examine the interactions between soils, vegetation, the atmosphere and human management, using varied levels of numerical sophistication. While previous efforts have contributed significantly towards the advancement of modeling tools, the models themselves are not typically applied across larger continental scales due to a lack of crucial data. Furthermore, many times crop models are used to study a single quantity, process, or cycle in isolation, limiting their value in considering the important tradeoffs between competing ecosystem services such as food production, water quality, and sequestered carbon. In response to the need for a more integrated agricultural modeling approach across the continental scale, an updated agricultural version of a dynamic biosphere model (IBIS) now integrates representations of land-surface physics and soil physics, canopy physiology, terrestrial carbon and nitrogen balance, crop phenology, solute transport, and farm management into a single framework. This version of the IBIS model (Agro-IBIS) uses a short 20 to 60-minute timestep to simulate the rapid exchange of energy, carbon, water, and momentum between soils, vegetative canopies, and the atmosphere. The model can be driven either by site-specific meteorological data or by gridded climate datasets. Mechanistic crop models for corn, soybean, and wheat use physiologically-based representations of leaf photosynthesis, stomatal conductance, and plant respiration. Model validation has been performed using a variety of temporal scale data collected at the following spatial scales: (1) the precision-agriculture scale (5 m), (2) the individual field experiment scale (AmeriFlux), and (3) regional and continental scales using annual USDA county-level yield data and monthly satellite (AVHRR) observations of vegetation characteristics at 0.5 degree resolution. To date, the model has been used with great success to

  10. The biosphere: current status

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thorne, M.C.

    1988-06-01

    This paper outlines the biosphere models and data required to assess the post-closure radiological impact of deep geological repositories for low and intermediate level radioactive wastes. It then goes on to show how these requirements are being met either within the Nirex Safety Assessment Research Programme or from other research programmes. (Author)

  11. Integrate Data into Scientific Workflows for Terrestrial Biosphere Model Evaluation through Brokers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, Y.; Cook, R. B.; Du, F.; Dasgupta, A.; Poco, J.; Huntzinger, D. N.; Schwalm, C. R.; Boldrini, E.; Santoro, M.; Pearlman, J.; Pearlman, F.; Nativi, S.; Khalsa, S.

    2013-12-01

    Terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) have become integral tools for extrapolating local observations and process-level understanding of land-atmosphere carbon exchange to larger regions. Model-model and model-observation intercomparisons are critical to understand the uncertainties within model outputs, to improve model skill, and to improve our understanding of land-atmosphere carbon exchange. The DataONE Exploration, Visualization, and Analysis (EVA) working group is evaluating TBMs using scientific workflows in UV-CDAT/VisTrails. This workflow-based approach promotes collaboration and improved tracking of evaluation provenance. But challenges still remain. The multi-scale and multi-discipline nature of TBMs makes it necessary to include diverse and distributed data resources in model evaluation. These include, among others, remote sensing data from NASA, flux tower observations from various organizations including DOE, and inventory data from US Forest Service. A key challenge is to make heterogeneous data from different organizations and disciplines discoverable and readily integrated for use in scientific workflows. This presentation introduces the brokering approach taken by the DataONE EVA to fill the gap between TBMs' evaluation scientific workflows and cross-organization and cross-discipline data resources. The DataONE EVA started the development of an Integrated Model Intercomparison Framework (IMIF) that leverages standards-based discovery and access brokers to dynamically discover, access, and transform (e.g. subset and resampling) diverse data products from DataONE, Earth System Grid (ESG), and other data repositories into a format that can be readily used by scientific workflows in UV-CDAT/VisTrails. The discovery and access brokers serve as an independent middleware that bridge existing data repositories and TBMs evaluation scientific workflows but introduce little overhead to either component. In the initial work, an OpenSearch-based discovery broker

  12. Modeling the biophysical impacts of global change in mountain biosphere reserves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bugmann, H.K.M.; Bjornsen, F. Ewert; Haeberli, W.; Guisan, Antoine; Fagre, Daniel B.; Kaab, A.

    2007-01-01

    Mountains and mountain societies provide a wide range of goods and services to humanity, but they are particularly sensitive to the effects of global environmental change. Thus, the definition of appropriate management regimes that maintain the multiple functions of mountain regions in a time of greatly changing climatic, economic, and societal drivers constitutes a significant challenge. Management decisions must be based on a sound understanding of the future dynamics of these systems. The present article reviews the elements required for an integrated effort to project the impacts of global change on mountain regions, and recommends tools that can be used at 3 scientific levels (essential, improved, and optimum). The proposed strategy is evaluated with respect to UNESCO's network of Mountain Biosphere Reserves (MBRs), with the intention of implementing it in other mountain regions as well. First, methods for generating scenarios of key drivers of global change are reviewed, including land use/land cover and climate change. This is followed by a brief review of the models available for projecting the impacts of these scenarios on (1) cryospheric systems, (2) ecosystem structure and diversity, and (3) ecosystem functions such as carbon and water relations. Finally, the cross-cutting role of remote sensing techniques is evaluated with respect to both monitoring and modeling efforts. We conclude that a broad range of techniques is available for both scenario generation and impact assessments, many of which can be implemented without much capacity building across many or even most MBRs. However, to foster implementation of the proposed strategy, further efforts are required to establish partnerships between scientists and resource managers in mountain areas.

  13. Advances in understanding, models and parameterisations of biosphere-atmosphere ammonia exchange

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flechard, C. R.; Massad, R.-S.; Loubet, B.; Personne, E.; Simpson, D.; Bash, J. O.; Cooter, E. J.; Nemitz, E.; Sutton, M. A.

    2013-03-01

    Atmospheric ammonia (NH3) dominates global emissions of total reactive nitrogen (Nr), while emissions from agricultural production systems contribute about two thirds of global NH3 emissions; the remaining third emanates from oceans, natural vegetation, humans, wild animals and biomass burning. On land, NH3 emitted from the various sources eventually returns to the biosphere by dry deposition to sink areas, predominantly semi-natural vegetation, and by wet and dry deposition as ammonium (NH4+) to all surfaces. However, the land/atmosphere exchange of gaseous NH3 is in fact bi-directional over unfertilized as well as fertilized ecosystems, with periods and areas of emission and deposition alternating in time (diurnal, seasonal) and space (patchwork landscapes). The exchange is controlled by a range of environmental factors, including meteorology, surface layer turbulence, thermodynamics, air and surface heterogeneous-phase chemistry, canopy geometry, plant development stage, leaf age, organic matter decomposition, soil microbial turnover, and, in agricultural systems, by fertilizer application rate, fertilizer type, soil type, crop type, and agricultural management practices. We review the range of processes controlling NH3 emission and uptake in the different parts of the soil-canopy-atmosphere continuum, with NH3 emission potentials defined at the substrate and leaf levels by different [NH4+] / [H+] ratios (Γ). Surface/atmosphere exchange models for NH3 are necessary to compute the temporal and spatial patterns of emissions and deposition at the soil, plant, field, landscape, regional and global scales, in order to assess the multiple environmental impacts of air-borne and deposited NH3 and NH4+. Models of soil/vegetation/atmosphereem NH3 exchange are reviewed from the substrate and leaf scales to the global scale. They range from simple steady-state, "big leaf" canopy resistance models, to dynamic, multi-layer, multi-process, multi

  14. Advances in understanding, models and parameterizations of biosphere-atmosphere ammonia exchange

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flechard, C. R.; Massad, R.-S.; Loubet, B.; Personne, E.; Simpson, D.; Bash, J. O.; Cooter, E. J.; Nemitz, E.; Sutton, M. A.

    2013-07-01

    Atmospheric ammonia (NH3) dominates global emissions of total reactive nitrogen (Nr), while emissions from agricultural production systems contribute about two-thirds of global NH3 emissions; the remaining third emanates from oceans, natural vegetation, humans, wild animals and biomass burning. On land, NH3 emitted from the various sources eventually returns to the biosphere by dry deposition to sink areas, predominantly semi-natural vegetation, and by wet and dry deposition as ammonium (NH4+) to all surfaces. However, the land/atmosphere exchange of gaseous NH3 is in fact bi-directional over unfertilized as well as fertilized ecosystems, with periods and areas of emission and deposition alternating in time (diurnal, seasonal) and space (patchwork landscapes). The exchange is controlled by a range of environmental factors, including meteorology, surface layer turbulence, thermodynamics, air and surface heterogeneous-phase chemistry, canopy geometry, plant development stage, leaf age, organic matter decomposition, soil microbial turnover, and, in agricultural systems, by fertilizer application rate, fertilizer type, soil type, crop type, and agricultural management practices. We review the range of processes controlling NH3 emission and uptake in the different parts of the soil-canopy-atmosphere continuum, with NH3 emission potentials defined at the substrate and leaf levels by different [NH4+] / [H+] ratios (Γ). Surface/atmosphere exchange models for NH3 are necessary to compute the temporal and spatial patterns of emissions and deposition at the soil, plant, field, landscape, regional and global scales, in order to assess the multiple environmental impacts of airborne and deposited NH3 and NH4+. Models of soil/vegetation/atmosphere NH3 exchange are reviewed from the substrate and leaf scales to the global scale. They range from simple steady-state, "big leaf" canopy resistance models, to dynamic, multi-layer, multi-process, multi-chemical species schemes

  15. Advances in understanding, models and parameterizations of biosphere-atmosphere ammonia exchange

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. R. Flechard

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Atmospheric ammonia (NH3 dominates global emissions of total reactive nitrogen (Nr, while emissions from agricultural production systems contribute about two-thirds of global NH3 emissions; the remaining third emanates from oceans, natural vegetation, humans, wild animals and biomass burning. On land, NH3 emitted from the various sources eventually returns to the biosphere by dry deposition to sink areas, predominantly semi-natural vegetation, and by wet and dry deposition as ammonium (NH4+ to all surfaces. However, the land/atmosphere exchange of gaseous NH3 is in fact bi-directional over unfertilized as well as fertilized ecosystems, with periods and areas of emission and deposition alternating in time (diurnal, seasonal and space (patchwork landscapes. The exchange is controlled by a range of environmental factors, including meteorology, surface layer turbulence, thermodynamics, air and surface heterogeneous-phase chemistry, canopy geometry, plant development stage, leaf age, organic matter decomposition, soil microbial turnover, and, in agricultural systems, by fertilizer application rate, fertilizer type, soil type, crop type, and agricultural management practices. We review the range of processes controlling NH3 emission and uptake in the different parts of the soil-canopy-atmosphere continuum, with NH3 emission potentials defined at the substrate and leaf levels by different [NH4+] / [H+] ratios (Γ. Surface/atmosphere exchange models for NH3 are necessary to compute the temporal and spatial patterns of emissions and deposition at the soil, plant, field, landscape, regional and global scales, in order to assess the multiple environmental impacts of airborne and deposited NH3 and NH4+. Models of soil/vegetation/atmosphere NH3 exchange are reviewed from the substrate and leaf scales to the global scale. They range from simple steady-state, "big leaf" canopy resistance models, to dynamic, multi-layer, multi-process, multi

  16. Biosphere dose conversion Factor Importance and Sensitivity Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    M. Wasiolek

    2004-10-15

    This report presents importance and sensitivity analysis for the environmental radiation model for Yucca Mountain, Nevada (ERMYN). ERMYN is a biosphere model supporting the total system performance assessment (TSPA) for the license application (LA) for the Yucca Mountain repository. This analysis concerns the output of the model, biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs) for the groundwater, and the volcanic ash exposure scenarios. It identifies important processes and parameters that influence the BDCF values and distributions, enhances understanding of the relative importance of the physical and environmental processes on the outcome of the biosphere model, includes a detailed pathway analysis for key radionuclides, and evaluates the appropriateness of selected parameter values that are not site-specific or have large uncertainty.

  17. Biosphere dose conversion Factor Importance and Sensitivity Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    M. Wasiolek

    2004-01-01

    This report presents importance and sensitivity analysis for the environmental radiation model for Yucca Mountain, Nevada (ERMYN). ERMYN is a biosphere model supporting the total system performance assessment (TSPA) for the license application (LA) for the Yucca Mountain repository. This analysis concerns the output of the model, biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs) for the groundwater, and the volcanic ash exposure scenarios. It identifies important processes and parameters that influence the BDCF values and distributions, enhances understanding of the relative importance of the physical and environmental processes on the outcome of the biosphere model, includes a detailed pathway analysis for key radionuclides, and evaluates the appropriateness of selected parameter values that are not site-specific or have large uncertainty

  18. Biosphere model simulations of interannual variability in terrestrial 13C/12C exchange.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Velde, van der I.R.; Miller, J.B.; Schaefer, K.; Masarie, K.A.; Denning, S.; White, J.W.C.; Krol, M.C.; Peters, W.; Tans, P.P.

    2013-01-01

    Previous studies suggest that a large part of the variability in the atmospheric ratio of (CO2)-C-13/(12)CO(2)originates from carbon exchange with the terrestrial biosphere rather than with the oceans. Since this variability is used to quantitatively partition the total carbon sink, we here

  19. Response of Water Use Efficiency to Global Environmental Change Based on Output From Terrestrial Biosphere Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Sha; Yu, Bofu; Schwalm, Christopher R.; Ciais, Philippe; Zhang, Yao; Fisher, Joshua B.; Michalak, Anna M.; Wang, Weile; Poulter, Benjamin; Huntzinger, Deborah N.; Niu, Shuli; Mao, Jiafu; Jain, Atul; Ricciuto, Daniel M.; Shi, Xiaoying; Ito, Akihiko; Wei, Yaxing; Huang, Yuefei; Wang, Guangqian

    2017-11-01

    Water use efficiency (WUE), defined as the ratio of gross primary productivity and evapotranspiration at the ecosystem scale, is a critical variable linking the carbon and water cycles. Incorporating a dependency on vapor pressure deficit, apparent underlying WUE (uWUE) provides a better indicator of how terrestrial ecosystems respond to environmental changes than other WUE formulations. Here we used 20th century simulations from four terrestrial biosphere models to develop a novel variance decomposition method. With this method, we attributed variations in apparent uWUE to both the trend and interannual variation of environmental drivers. The secular increase in atmospheric CO2 explained a clear majority of total variation (66 ± 32%: mean ± one standard deviation), followed by positive trends in nitrogen deposition and climate, as well as a negative trend in land use change. In contrast, interannual variation was mostly driven by interannual climate variability. To analyze the mechanism of the CO2 effect, we partitioned the apparent uWUE into the transpiration ratio (transpiration over evapotranspiration) and potential uWUE. The relative increase in potential uWUE parallels that of CO2, but this direct CO2 effect was offset by 20 ± 4% by changes in ecosystem structure, that is, leaf area index for different vegetation types. However, the decrease in transpiration due to stomatal closure with rising CO2 was reduced by 84% by an increase in leaf area index, resulting in small changes in the transpiration ratio. CO2 concentration thus plays a dominant role in driving apparent uWUE variations over time, but its role differs for the two constituent components: potential uWUE and transpiration.

  20. Response of Water Use Efficiency to Global Environmental Change Based on Output From Terrestrial Biosphere Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhou, Sha [Tsinghua Univ., Beijing (China); Yu, Bofu [Griffith Univ., Nathan Queensland (Australia); Schwalm, Christopher R. [Woods Hole Research Center, Falmouth, MA (United States); Northern Arizona Univ., Flagstaff, AZ (United States); Ciais, Philippe [Lab. des Sciences du Climat et de l' Environnement, Gif-sur-Yvette (France); Zhang, Yao [Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK (United States); Fisher, Joshua B. [California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA (United States); Michalak, Anna M. [Carnegie Institution for Science, Stanford, CA (United States); Wang, Weile [California State Uni., Monterey Bay, Seasid, CA (United States); Poulter, Benjamin [Montana State Univ., Bozeman, MT (United States); Huntzinger, Deborah N. [Northern Arizona Univ., Flagstaff, AZ (United States); Niu, Shuli [Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Beijing (China); Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Beijing (China); Mao, Jiafu [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Jain, Atul [Univ. of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, IL (United States); Ricciuto, Daniel M. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Shi, Xiaoying [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Ito, Akihiko [Tohoku Univ., Sendai (Japan); Wei, Yaxing [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Huang, Yuefei [Tsinghua Univ., Beijing (China); Qinghai Univ., Xining (China); Wang, Guangqian [Tsinghua Univ., Beijing (China)

    2017-10-18

    Here, water use efficiency (WUE), defined as the ratio of gross primary productivity and evapotranspiration at the ecosystem scale, is a critical variable linking the carbon and water cycles. Incorporating a dependency on vapor pressure deficit, apparent underlying WUE (uWUE) provides a better indicator of how terrestrial ecosystems respond to environmental changes than other WUE formulations. Here we used 20th century simulations from four terrestrial biosphere models to develop a novel variance decomposition method. With this method, we attributed variations in apparent uWUE to both the trend and interannual variation of environmental drivers. The secular increase in atmospheric CO2 explained a clear majority of total variation (66 ± 32%: mean ± one standard deviation), followed by positive trends in nitrogen deposition and climate, as well as a negative trend in land use change. In contrast, interannual variation was mostly driven by interannual climate variability. To analyze the mechanism of the CO2 effect, we partitioned the apparent uWUE into the transpiration ratio (transpiration over evapotranspiration) and potential uWUE. The relative increase in potential uWUE parallels that of CO2, but this direct CO2 effect was offset by 20 ± 4% by changes in ecosystem structure, that is, leaf area index for different vegetation types. However, the decrease in transpiration due to stomatal closure with rising CO2 was reduced by 84% by an increase in leaf area index, resulting in small changes in the transpiration ratio. CO2 concentration thus plays a dominant role in driving apparent uWUE variations over time, but its role differs for the two constituent components: potential uWUE and transpiration.

  1. Transbios - a unified model for assessment of the effect of noxious materials in ground water to the biosphere. Compilation of the model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rejlek, G.

    1992-06-01

    This model of radionuclide propagation in the biosphere is part of the project 'Final Deposition of Low- and Medium- active Wastes from Hospitals, University Institutes and Industry'. The six parts are: a flow-and transport model in ground water, an evaporation-transpiration model, a transfer model soil-to-plant, a water cycle- and a food chain model. Solutions are designed and peculiarities of the program are outlined. Finally the individual parts are integrated into the overall model

  2. Evaluation of Some Physiochemical Parameters and Heavy Metal Contamination in Hara Biosphere Reserve, Iran, Using a New Pollution Index Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iman Zarei

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Background: The pollution of the aquatic environment with heavy metals has become a worldwide problem during recent years, due to their potential toxic effects and ability to bio-accumulate in aquatic ecosystems. Heavy metals are sensitive indicators for monitoring changes in the aquatic environment. Methods: In this study, total concentrations of Cr, Pb, Cu, Zn, and Fe were measured in water and sediments from nine sites, based on ecological conditions and human activities and the effects of sediment pH and sediment organic matter on bioavailability of selected metals were determined. Modified degree of contamination (mCd was computed in order to determine anthropogenically derived sediment contamination. Results: Mean concentration of metals in water found to be in the following order: Pb > Fe > Zn > Cu > Cr, while in sediment samples it was Fe > Cr > Zn > Pb > Cu. The average content of examined metals in water was higher than the chronic values in marine surface water guideline values. Mean content of Cr, Pb and Fe in sediments were higher than average of the less contaminated sample but Cu and Zn were lower than this guideline value. In the study area, mCd values were less than 1.5 with values ranging from 0.71 to 1.02. Conclusion: The results of this study indicated with a decrease in organic matter and pH in sediments, the concentration of copper and iron increased. Base on modified contamination degree, the sediments of Hara Biosphere Reserve are considered to be in the zero to very low contamination status.

  3. Biosphere assessment report 2009

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hjerpe, T.; Broed, R.; Ikonen, A.T.K.

    2010-03-01

    Following the guidelines set forth by the Ministry of Trade and Industry (now Ministry of Employment and Economy), Posiva is preparing to submit a construction license application for the final disposal spent nuclear fuel at the Olkiluoto site, Finland, by the end of the year 2012. Disposal will take place in a geological repository implemented according to the KBS-3 method. The long-term safety section supporting the license application will be based on a safety case that, according to the internationally adopted definition, will be a compilation of the evidence, analyses and arguments that quantify and substantiate the safety and the level of expert confidence in the safety of the planned repository. The present Biosphere Assessment Report represents a major contribution to the development this safety case. The report has been compiled in accordance with Posiva's current plan for preparing this safety case. A full safety case, and an updated Biosphere Assessment Report, will be developed to support the Preliminary Safety Assessment Report (PSAR) in 2012. This report summarises the biosphere assessment for the planned repository addressing the following components: the site understanding (biosphere description), development of terrain and ecosystems within the next ten millennia, calculations of radionuclide transport in the biosphere and radiological consequences analysis, i.e. dose assessments for humans and the other biota. It also presents the main models used in the assessment and summarises the input data and its quality. It discusses compliance with Finnish regulatory requirements for long-term safety of a geological repository on the basis of the calculated annual effective doses to representative members of the most exposed people and to the a larger group of exposed people and typical absorbed dose rates to plants and animals. The other aspects of the compliance are addressed in the interim Summary Report of the safety case. Various repository

  4. A comparison between the example reference biosphere model ERB 2B and a process-based model: simulation of a natural release scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Almahayni, T

    2014-12-01

    The BIOMASS methodology was developed with the objective of constructing defensible assessment biospheres for assessing potential radiological impacts of radioactive waste repositories. To this end, a set of Example Reference Biospheres were developed to demonstrate the use of the methodology and to provide an international point of reference. In this paper, the performance of the Example Reference Biosphere model ERB 2B associated with the natural release scenario, discharge of contaminated groundwater to the surface environment, was evaluated by comparing its long-term projections of radionuclide dynamics and distribution in a soil-plant system to those of a process-based, transient advection-dispersion model (AD). The models were parametrised with data characteristic of a typical rainfed winter wheat crop grown on a sandy loam soil under temperate climate conditions. Three safety-relevant radionuclides, (99)Tc, (129)I and (237)Np with different degree of sorption were selected for the study. Although the models were driven by the same hydraulic (soil moisture content and water fluxes) and radiological (Kds) input data, their projections were remarkably different. On one hand, both models were able to capture short and long-term variation in activity concentration in the subsoil compartment. On the other hand, the Reference Biosphere model did not project any radionuclide accumulation in the topsoil and crop compartments. This behaviour would underestimate the radiological exposure under natural release scenarios. The results highlight the potential role deep roots play in soil-to-plant transfer under a natural release scenario where radionuclides are released into the subsoil. When considering the relative activity and root depth profiles within the soil column, much of the radioactivity was taken up into the crop from the subsoil compartment. Further improvements were suggested to address the limitations of the Reference Biosphere model presented in this paper

  5. The Biosphere International Peer Review

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van Luik, Abraham

    2002-01-01

    Abe van Luik (US DOE- YM, USA), ended the presentation by giving feedback from the IAEA peer review on the biosphere modelling strategy developed by the DOE Yucca Mountain Site Characterisation Office (YMSCO). This review was based on available international standards and guidance. The peer review team was constituted of both experts from regulatory and waste management organisations and national advisory committees. The implementation of the review consisted of an examination of biosphere reports mainly regarding the modelling and question and answer exchanges. The final report was submitted in April 2000. It contained twenty-three recommendations within two broad classifications; one concerning the regulatory framework, the other one regarding the framework to increase stakeholders' confidence in modelling. The three main categories of recommendations were outlined, namely (i) the DOE' s Biosphere assessment Approach, (ii) the definition of the biosphere system, and (iii) the model development, data and results. Regarding in particular the treatment of the uncertainties in the biosphere, it was viewed as a key issue during the review and thus it will be re-evaluated in the future performance assessment. The summary highlighted most of the recommendations received are to be acted on, and are to be included in the License Application plan for biosphere modelling

  6. Linking Item Response Model Parameters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Linden, Wim J; Barrett, Michelle D

    2016-09-01

    With a few exceptions, the problem of linking item response model parameters from different item calibrations has been conceptualized as an instance of the problem of test equating scores on different test forms. This paper argues, however, that the use of item response models does not require any test score equating. Instead, it involves the necessity of parameter linking due to a fundamental problem inherent in the formal nature of these models-their general lack of identifiability. More specifically, item response model parameters need to be linked to adjust for the different effects of the identifiability restrictions used in separate item calibrations. Our main theorems characterize the formal nature of these linking functions for monotone, continuous response models, derive their specific shapes for different parameterizations of the 3PL model, and show how to identify them from the parameter values of the common items or persons in different linking designs.

  7. Experience in biosphere modelling and definition of exposed groups. Concerns on consideration of the long-term

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pinedo, P.

    2002-01-01

    The long life of high level waste and their 'possible' releases, from the repository, in the far future during wide time frames, introduce difficulties on the ability of forecasting actual doses. Similar difficulties were found when trying to establish or recommend protection criteria for the environment and human health. The stochastic nature of the whole problem, from the causes that initiate radionuclides releases to the nature of the environmental conditions where impact is evaluated, made more complex the treatment of the radionuclide transport models and the analysis of radiological impact. The application of radiological protection principles to this management option, was also seen as different from other present-day practices. All this gave rise to the diversification of the research lines towards new areas that allow for the analysis of radionuclide transport, dose calculations and, criteria, in this new situation. The approach for the biosphere system based on the 'reference' concept, in essence the same idea as the one for the 'Reference man' concept, was promoted internationally, first within the BIOMOVS II Project and, afterwards, in the BIOMASS IAEA Programme. In parallel to the participation in these Projects and based on their conclusions, CIEMAT has been developing for ENRESA a methodology, which has to be updated and completed with recent developments from BIOMASS-Theme1. Notably, for the Justification and Identification step, the Description of Critical Groups and the use of the Data protocol. An application of this methodology was performed and published in 1998 and, its results and conclusions are summarised in the paper. Also, the paper includes main conclusions from the biosphere modelling applied in the last ENRESA2000 Spanish PA exercise and, difficulties found in the consistency between the scenario generation procedure, the treatment of the interface and the source term and, the use of the reference biosphere concept. (author)

  8. VALORA: data base system for storage significant information used in the behavior modelling in the biosphere

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Valdes R, M.; Aguero P, A.; Perez S, D.; Cancio P, D.

    2006-01-01

    The nuclear and radioactive facilities can emit to the environment effluents that contain radionuclides, which are dispersed and/or its accumulate in the atmosphere, the terrestrial surface and the surface waters. As part of the evaluations of radiological impact, it requires to be carried out qualitative and quantitative analysis. In many of the cases it doesn't have the real values of the parameters that are used in the modelling, neither it is possible to carry out their measure, for that to be able to carry out the evaluation it needs to be carried out an extensive search of that published in the literature about the possible values of each parameter, under similar conditions to the object of study, this work can be extensive. In this work the characteristics of the VALORA Database System developed with the purpose of organizing and to automate significant information that it appears in different sources (scientific or technique literature) of the parameters that are used in the modelling of the behavior of the pollutants in the environment and the values assigned to these parameters that are used in the evaluation of the radiological impact potential is described; VALORA allows the consultation and selection of the characteristic parametric data of different situations and processes that are required by the calculation pattern implemented. The software VALORA it is a component of a group of tools computer that have as objective to help to the resolution of dispersion models and transfer of pollutants. (Author)

  9. Posiva biosphere assessment: Revised structure and status 2006

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ikonen, A.

    2006-12-01

    Posiva's Safety Case is organised into a portfolio consisting of ten main component reports of which the Biosphere Assessment is one. To better facilitate the iterative assessment process by different task groups, the Biosphere Assessment is now organised into a sub-portfolio having folders for reports on specific topics: Site and evolution describes the past, present and future conditions of the surface system of the Olkiluoto site; Biosphere processes contain descriptions of processes prevailing at the site now and in future; Module Descriptions document the radionuclide transport models; Biosphere Assessment Data reports the parameter data used in the assessment with full references to their origin; Cases and variants provide mainly the simulated concentrations in the environmental media as a part of the actual assessment; Exposures of total environment draw conclusions on the dose and effect implications on the basis of the concentrations provided in Cases and variants. Finally, the biosphere assessment is consolidated in the summary report providing the needed high-level information to the main Safety Case and referring to the individual background reports for the details. In addition to the specific folders of the Biosphere Assessment Portfolio, there are also a number of overlapping issues to be considered throughout the assessment. Most important of those are the handling of the geosphere-biosphere interface and the future human activities, and the thorough knowledge quality assessment, the last of which provides tools to evaluate the overall uncertainty and consistency of and confidence to the assessment. In this report, the current strategy of modelling the different aspects of the biosphere from the site investigations to the doses is discussed, and the Biosphere Assessment Portfolio is introduced. Requirements and recommendations are given to the individual folders and/or reports to steer the extensive biosphere modelling and assessment work towards a

  10. Development of Advanced Eco-hydrologic and Biogeochemical Coupling Model to Re-evaluate Greenhouse Gas Budget of Biosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakayama, T.; Maksyutov, S. S.

    2015-12-01

    Inland waters including rivers, lakes, and groundwater are suggested to act as a transport pathway for water and dissolved substances, and play some role in continental biogeochemical cycling (Cole et al., 2007; Battin et al., 2009). The authors have developed process-based National Integrated Catchment-based Eco-hydrology (NICE) model (2014, 2015, etc.), which includes feedback between hydrologic-geomorphic-ecological processes. In this study, NICE was further developed to couple with various biogeochemical cycle models in biosphere, those for water quality in aquatic ecosystems, and those for carbon weathering. The NICE-biogeochemical coupling model incorporates connectivity of the biogeochemical cycle accompanied by hydrologic cycle between surface water and groundwater, hillslopes and river networks, and other intermediate regions. The model also includes reaction between inorganic and organic carbons, and its relation to nitrogen and phosphorus in terrestrial-aquatic continuum. The coupled model showed to improve the accuracy of inundation stress mechanism such as photosynthesis and primary production, which attributes to improvement of CH4 flux in wetland sensitive to fluctuations of shallow groundwater. The model also simulated CO2 evasion from inland water in global scale, and was relatively in good agreement in empirical relation (Aufdenkampe et al., 2011) which has relatively an uncertainty in the calculated flux because of pCO2 data missing in some region and effect of small tributaries, etc. Further, the model evaluated how the expected CO2 evasion might change as inland waters become polluted with nutrients and eutrophication increases from agriculture and urban areas (Pacheco et al., 2013). This advanced eco-hydrologic and biogeochemical coupling model would play important role to re-evaluate greenhouse gas budget of the biosphere, and to bridge gap between top-down and bottom-up approaches (Battin et al., 2009; Regnier et al., 2013).

  11. Safety case for the disposal of spent nuclear fuel at Olkiluoto. Surface and near-surface hydrological modelling in the biosphere assessment BSA-2012

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Karvonen, T.

    2013-05-01

    The Finnish nuclear waste disposal company, Posiva Oy, is planning an underground repository for spent nuclear fuel to be constructed on the island of Olkiluoto on the south-west coast of Finland. This study is part of the biosphere assessment (BSA-2012) within the safety case for the repository. The surface hydrological modelling described in this report is aimed at providing link between radionuclide transport in the geosphere and in the biosphere systems. The SVAT-model and Olkiluoto site scale surface hydrological model were calibrated and validated in the present day conditions using the input data provided by the Olkiluoto Monitoring Programme (OMO). During the next 10 000 years the terrain and ecosystem development is to a large extent driven by the postglacial crustal uplift. UNTAMO is a GIS toolbox developed for simulating land-uplift driven or other changes in the biosphere. All the spatial and temporal input data (excluding meteorological data) needed in the surface hydrological modelling were provided by the UNTAMO toolbox. The specific outputs given by UNTAMO toolbox are time-dependent evolution of the biosphere objects. They are continuous and sufficiently homogeneous sub-areas of the modelled area that could potentially receive radionuclides released from the repository. Possible ecosystem types for biosphere objects are coast, lake, river, forest, cropland, pasture and wetland. The primary goal of this study was to compute vertical and horizontal water fluxes in the biosphere objects. These data will be used in the biosphere radionuclide transport calculations. The method adopted here is based on calculating average vertical and horizontal fluxes for biosphere objects from the results of the full 3D-model. It was not necessary to develop any simplified hydrological model for the biosphere objects. This report includes modelling results from for the Reference Case (present day climate) and Terr M axAgri Case (maximum extent of agricultural areas and

  12. Calibração do "simplified simple biosphere model - SSiB" para áreas de pastagem e floresta na Amazônia com dados do LBA Calibration of the simplified simple biosphere model (SSiB for Amazonian pasture and forest sites using LBA data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francis Wagner Silva Correia

    2005-06-01

    Full Text Available Os parâmetros do "Simplified Simple Biosphere Model"-SSiB foram validados e posteriormente calibrados para os sítios de pastagem da Fazenda Nossa Senhora Aparecida (62º22'W; 10º45'S e de floresta da Reserva Biológica do Jaru (62º22'W; 10º45'S, ambos situados no estado de Rondônia. Foram utilizadas medidas micrometeorológicas e hidrológicas obtidas durante o período seco de 2001, como parte do Experimento de Grande Escala da Biosfera-Atmosfera na Amazônia - LBA. Os resultados indicam que o modelo simulou bem o saldo de radiação, tanto na pastagem quanto na floresta. O fluxo de calor latente foi superestimado nos dois sítios nos períodos de simulação, o que deve estar relacionado aos parâmetros utilizados no cálculo dessa variável. O modelo subestimou o fluxo de calor sensível na pastagem e na floresta, principalmente no período noturno; porém, para a floresta, os valores foram mais próximos daqueles observados. Com os parâmetros ajustados, melhores estimativas dos fluxos de calor latente e de calor sensível foram geradas e, conseqüentemente, representou melhor as partições de energia na floresta e na pastagem.The parameters of the Simplified Simple Biosphere Model - SSiB were validated and subsequently calibrated for the Fazenda Nossa Senhora Aparecida (62º22'W; 10º45'S pasture site and the Reserva Biológica do Jaru (62º22'W; 10º45'S forest site, both located in the state of Rondônia. Micrometeorological and hydrological data collected during the dry period of 2001, as part of the Large-Scale Biosphere-Atmosphere Experiment in Amazonia - LBA, were used. The results showed that the model simulated well the net radiation, both at the pasture and at the forest. The latent heat flux was super-estimated in both sites. The model sub-estimated the sensible heat flux at the pasture and at the forest, mainly during the night period; notwithstanding, the values for the forest were nearer to the observed ones. With the

  13. Latest developments on the modeling of the biosphere in the management of radioactive waste in Spain; Ultimos desarrollos sobre la modelizacion de la biosfera en la gestion de residuos radiactivos en Espana

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Perez Sanchez, D.; Trueba Alonso, C.

    2013-07-01

    In recent years, the CIEMAT has developed for ENRESA a methodology and tools for safety assessment of the biosphere in the management of radioactive waste. This methodology includes modeling of migration and accumulation of radionuclides in the biosphere to allow the assessment of the radiological impact of the distribution of radionuclides in the environment. The working group is developing projects related to the safety assessment of the biosphere, which comprise several studies. In this paper the latest results obtained are described. (Author)

  14. Conceptual and numerical modelling of radionuclide transport in near-surface systems at Forsmark. SR-Site Biosphere

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pique, Angels; Grandia, Fidel; Sena, Clara; Arcos, David; Molinero, Jorge; Duro, Lara; Bruno, Jordi (Amphos21 Consulting S.L., Barcelona (Spain))

    2010-11-15

    In the framework of the SR-Site safety assessment, a conceptual and numerical modelling of radionuclide reactive transport in near-surface systems (including till and clay systems) at Forsmark has been carried out. The objective was to evaluate the retention capacity of the near-surface systems, composed of Quaternary deposits, which would be the last natural barrier for an eventual radionuclide release from the deep repository prior to reaching the biosphere. The studied radionuclides are 14C, 129I, 36Cl, 94Nb, 59Ni, 93Mo, 79Se, 99Tc, 230Th, 90Sr, 226Ra, 135Cs and U. Conceptual description and numerical simulations of radionuclide reactive transport show that cation exchange and surface complexation on illite are active processes for the retention of several radionuclides (U, Th, Ni, Cs, Sr, Ra). Surface complexation on iron hydroxide is an active process in the till system, able to effectively retain U and Ni. Another retention process of importance is the incorporation of the radionuclides into mineral phases, either by the precipitation of pure phases or solid solutions. Quantitative modelling has been useful to illustrate the incorporation of C and Sr in the carbonate solid solution in the considered model domains (till and clay), as well as the precipitation of uraninite in the clay sediments and the precipitation of native selenium and radiobarite in the till. Other mineral phases that could, a priori, retain U, Se, Nb and Tc do not precipitate in the simulations, either due to the pH-Eh conditions and/or because the dissolved concentration of the element is not high enough under the considered simulation conditions. It is important to keep in mind that changes in these parameters and in the boundary conditions could modify the predicted behaviour of these elements. The radionuclides that are most significantly retarded are Th, Ni and Cs, mainly through sorption onto illite. Therefore, if the amount of illite (or available sorption sites) decreases, the

  15. Conceptual and numerical modelling of radionuclide transport in near-surface systems at Forsmark. SR-Site Biosphere

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pique, Angels; Grandia, Fidel; Sena, Clara; Arcos, David; Molinero, Jorge; Duro, Lara; Bruno, Jordi

    2010-11-01

    In the framework of the SR-Site safety assessment, a conceptual and numerical modelling of radionuclide reactive transport in near-surface systems (including till and clay systems) at Forsmark has been carried out. The objective was to evaluate the retention capacity of the near-surface systems, composed of Quaternary deposits, which would be the last natural barrier for an eventual radionuclide release from the deep repository prior to reaching the biosphere. The studied radionuclides are 14 C, 129 I, 36 Cl, 94 Nb, 59 Ni, 93 Mo, 79 Se, 99 Tc, 230 Th, 90 Sr, 226 Ra, 135 Cs and U. Conceptual description and numerical simulations of radionuclide reactive transport show that cation exchange and surface complexation on illite are active processes for the retention of several radionuclides (U, Th, Ni, Cs, Sr, Ra). Surface complexation on iron hydroxide is an active process in the till system, able to effectively retain U and Ni. Another retention process of importance is the incorporation of the radionuclides into mineral phases, either by the precipitation of pure phases or solid solutions. Quantitative modelling has been useful to illustrate the incorporation of C and Sr in the carbonate solid solution in the considered model domains (till and clay), as well as the precipitation of uraninite in the clay sediments and the precipitation of native selenium and radiobarite in the till. Other mineral phases that could, a priori, retain U, Se, Nb and Tc do not precipitate in the simulations, either due to the pH-Eh conditions and/or because the dissolved concentration of the element is not high enough under the considered simulation conditions. It is important to keep in mind that changes in these parameters and in the boundary conditions could modify the predicted behaviour of these elements. The radionuclides that are most significantly retarded are Th, Ni and Cs, mainly through sorption onto illite. Therefore, if the amount of illite (or available sorption sites

  16. In Depth Modeling of Nuclide Transport in the Geosphere and the Biosphere to Reduce Uncertainty (Final Report)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Youn Myoung; Kang, Chul Kyung; Hwang, Yong Soo; Lee, Sung Ho

    2010-08-01

    The Korea Radioactive Waste Management Center (KRMC) is conducting a research on a step by step development of a safety case for the Gyeongju low- and intermediate-level radioactive waste repository (WNEMC; Wolseong Nuclear Environment Management Center). A modeling study and development of a methodology, by which an assessment of safety and performance for a low- and intermediate level radioactive waste (LILW) repository could be effectively made has been carried out. With normal or abnormal nuclide release cases associated with the various FEPs and scenarios involved in the performance of the proposed repository in view of nuclide transport and transfer both in geosphere and biosphere, a total system performance assessment (TSPA) program has been developed by utilizing such commercial development tool programs as GoldSim, AMBER, MASCOT-K, and TOUGH2 in Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute (KAERI) under contract with KRMC. The final project report especially deals much with a detailed conceptual modeling scheme by which a GoldSim program modules, all of which are integrated into a TSPA program template kit as well as the input data set currently available. In-depth system models that are conceptually and rather practically described and then ready for implementing into a GoldSim TSPA program are introduced with plenty of illustrative conceptual schemes and evaluations with data currently available. The GoldSim TSPA tempalte program and the AMBER biosphere tempalte program as well as the TOUGH-2 gas migration template program developed through this project are expected to be successfully applied to the post closure safety assessment required for WNEMC by the regulatory body with increased practicality and much reduced uncertainty and conservatism

  17. A regional-scale groundwater model supporting management of the Sian Ka'an Biosphere Reserve and its catchment, Quintana Roo, Mexico

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gondwe, Bibi Ruth Neuman; Merediz Alonso, G.; Rebolledo Vieyra, M.

    2007-01-01

    ,000 in 1990 to 1,115,000 in 2005. This explosive growth threatens the region's water resources, which primarily consist of a less than 50m thick freshwater lens residing in the regional karst aquifer underlying the entire Yucatan Peninsula. The Sian Ka'an Biosphere Reserve, a 6400 km2 combined marine......'an Biosphere reserve and its catchment was developed. The model is implemented in MIKE SHE with a finite-difference cell size of 1 km2 and is driven with temporally averaged climate forcings. The karst aquifer is treated as an equivalent porous medium. Darcy's law is assumed to be valid over regional scales...

  18. Parameter estimation in nonlinear models for pesticide degradation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Richter, O.; Pestemer, W.; Bunte, D.; Diekkrueger, B.

    1991-01-01

    A wide class of environmental transfer models is formulated as ordinary or partial differential equations. With the availability of fast computers, the numerical solution of large systems became feasible. The main difficulty in performing a realistic and convincing simulation of the fate of a substance in the biosphere is not the implementation of numerical techniques but rather the incomplete data basis for parameter estimation. Parameter estimation is a synonym for statistical and numerical procedures to derive reasonable numerical values for model parameters from data. The classical method is the familiar linear regression technique which dates back to the 18th century. Because it is easy to handle, linear regression has long been established as a convenient tool for analysing relationships. However, the wide use of linear regression has led to an overemphasis of linear relationships. In nature, most relationships are nonlinear and linearization often gives a poor approximation of reality. Furthermore, pure regression models are not capable to map the dynamics of a process. Therefore, realistic models involve the evolution in time (and space). This leads in a natural way to the formulation of differential equations. To establish the link between data and dynamical models, numerical advanced parameter identification methods have been developed in recent years. This paper demonstrates the application of these techniques to estimation problems in the field of pesticide dynamics. (7 refs., 5 figs., 2 tabs.)

  19. BIOPROTA Key Issues in Biosphere Aspects of Assessment of the Long-term Impact of Contaminant Releases Associated with Radioactive Waste Management. Theme 2: Task 7: Modelling Processes in the Geosphere Biosphere Interface Zone

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pinedo, P.; Smith, G.; Aguero, A.; Albrecht, A.; Bath, A.; Benhabderrahmane, H.; Van Dorp, F.; Kautsky, U.; Klos, R.; Laciok, A.; Milodowski, T.; Selroos, J.O.; Simon, I.; Texier, D.; Thorne, M.; Willans, M.

    2005-01-01

    This document reports on BIOPROTA Theme 2, task 7 which investigated modelling processes in the geosphere- biosphere interface zone (GBIZ) during performance assessments. Modelling issues in the treatment of the GBIZ are identified. A large proportion of the identified issues concern modelling radionuclide behaviour in near surface aquifers which are subject to relatively high gradients in chemical and other conditions. Other key issues concern transfer of radionuclides through the unsaturated zone above aquifers, bearing in mind the scope for erosion and variations in the level of the phreatic surface and also the consideration of environmental change. A number of research areas are highlighted that are aimed at addressing each of the identified issues in the treatment of GBIZ. These include (i) Developing of a current statement of continuing problems, and hence clarify and justify the need to do more; (ii) Conducting a review of site investigations as they have been done already, and determine whether they meet performance assessment requirements; (iii) Identifying scenarios and FEPs considered in current treatments; and, (iv) Conducting source-pathway-receptor analysis to demonstrate comprehensiveness of the overall scenario identification process. The objectives of these activities would be to determine the potential to reduce uncertainties and/or conservative assumptions in assessment of radionuclide transfer from the geosphere to biosphere domains, taking account of environmental change; and to develop guidance on site-characterisation needs at different types of site, as regards the near-surface features. (Author) 23 refs

  20. BIOPROTA Key Issues in Biosphere Aspects of Assessment of the Long-term Impact of Contaminant Releases Associated with Radioactive Waste Management Theme 2: Task 7:Modelling Processes in the Geosphere Biosphere Interface Zone

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pinedo, P.; Smith, G.; Aguero, A.; Albrecht, A.; Bath, A.; Benhabderrahmane, H.; Van Dorp, F.; Kautsky, U.; Klos, R.; Laciok, A.; Milodowski, T.; Selroos, J.O.; Simon, I.; Texier, D.; Thorne, M.; Willans, M.

    2005-07-01

    This document reports on BIOPROTA Theme 2, task 7 which investigated modelling processes in the geosphere- biosphere interface zone (GBIZ) during performance assessments. Modelling issues in the treatment of the GBIZ are identified. A large proportion of the identified issues concern modelling radionuclide behaviour in near surface aquifers which are subject to relatively high gradients in chemical and other conditions. Other key issues concern transfer of radionuclides through the unsaturated zone above aquifers, bearing in mind the scope for erosion and variations in the level of the phreatic surface and also the consideration of environmental change. A number of research areas are highlighted that are aimed at addressing each of the identified issues in the treatment of GBIZ. These include (i) Developing of a current statement of continuing problems, and hence clarify and justify the need to do more; (ii) Conducting a review of site investigations as they have been done already, and determine whether they meet performance assessment requirements; (iii) Identifying scenarios and FEPs considered in current treatments; and, (iv) Conducting source-pathway-receptor analysis to demonstrate comprehensiveness of the overall scenario identification process. The objectives of these activities would be to determine the potential to reduce uncertainties and/or conservative assumptions in assessment of radionuclide transfer from the geosphere to biosphere domains, taking account of environmental change; and to develop guidance on site-characterisation needs at different types of site, as regards the near-surface features. (Author) 23 refs.

  1. The biosphere rules.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Unruh, Gregory C

    2008-02-01

    Sustainability, defined by natural scientists as the capacity of healthy ecosystems to function indefinitely, has become a clarion call for business. Leading companies have taken high-profile steps toward achieving it: Wal-Mart, for example, with its efforts to reduce packaging waste, and Nike, which has removed toxic chemicals from its shoes. But, says Unruh, the director of Thunderbird's Lincoln Center for Ethics in Global Management, sustainability is more than an endless journey of incremental steps. It is a destination, for which the biosphere of planet Earth--refined through billions of years of trial and error--is a perfect model. Unruh distills some lessons from the biosphere into three rules: Use a parsimonious palette. Managers can rethink their sourcing strategies and dramatically simplify the number and types of materials their companies use in production, making recycling cost-effective. After the furniture manufacturer Herman Miller discovered that its leading desk chair had 200 components made from more than 800 chemical compounds, it designed an award-winning successor whose far more limited materials palette is 96% recyclable. Cycle up, virtuously. Manufacturers should design recovery value into their products at the outset. Shaw Industries, for example, recycles the nylon fiber from its worn-out carpet into brand-new carpet tile. Exploit the power of platforms. Platform design in industry tends to occur at the component level--but the materials in those components constitute a more fundamental platform. Patagonia, by recycling Capilene brand performance underwear, has achieved energy costs 76% below those for virgin sourcing. Biosphere rules can teach companies how to build ecologically friendly products that both reduce manufacturing costs and prove highly attractive to consumers. And managers need not wait for a green technological revolution to implement them.

  2. Database description for the biosphere code BIOMOD

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kane, P.; Thorne, M.C.; Coughtrey, P.J.

    1983-03-01

    The development of a biosphere model for use in comparative radiological assessments of UK low and intermediate level waste repositories is discussed. The nature, content and sources of data contained in the four files that comprise the database for the biosphere code BIOMOD are described. (author)

  3. An improved land biosphere module for use in the DCESS Earth system model (version 1.1 with application to the last glacial termination

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Eichinger

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Interactions between the land biosphere and the atmosphere play an important role for the Earth's carbon cycle and thus should be considered in studies of global carbon cycling and climate. Simple approaches are a useful first step in this direction but may not be applicable for certain climatic conditions. To improve the ability of the reduced-complexity Danish Center for Earth System Science (DCESS Earth system model DCESS to address cold climate conditions, we reformulated the model's land biosphere module by extending it to include three dynamically varying vegetation zones as well as a permafrost component. The vegetation zones are formulated by emulating the behaviour of a complex land biosphere model. We show that with the new module, the size and timing of carbon exchanges between atmosphere and land are represented more realistically in cooling and warming experiments. In particular, we use the new module to address carbon cycling and climate change across the last glacial transition. Within the constraints provided by various proxy data records, we tune the DCESS model to a Last Glacial Maximum state and then conduct transient sensitivity experiments across the transition under the application of explicit transition functions for high-latitude ocean exchange, atmospheric dust, and the land ice sheet extent. We compare simulated time evolutions of global mean temperature, pCO2, atmospheric and oceanic carbon isotopes as well as ocean dissolved oxygen concentrations with proxy data records. In this way we estimate the importance of different processes across the transition with emphasis on the role of land biosphere variations and show that carbon outgassing from permafrost and uptake of carbon by the land biosphere broadly compensate for each other during the temperature rise of the early last deglaciation.

  4. An international peer review of the biosphere modelling programme of the US Department of Energy's Yucca mountain site characterization project. Report of the IAEA International Review Team

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-04-01

    The United States Department of Energy (DOE) has a project for characterizing the site of a facility for disposing of radioactive waste located at Yucca Mountain Nevada, USA (the Yucca Mountain Site Characterization Project). This Project has developed an approach for assessing the future potential impact of any releases of radionuclides to the biosphere from a potential disposal facility sited at Yucca Mountain The DOE requested the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to organize an independent international expert review of the assessment methodology being used in its biosphere modelling programme. The IAEA accepted the request in the context of its statutory obligation to provide for the application of its established international standards of safety for the protection of health, at the request of a State, to any of that State's activities in the field of atomic energy. The terms of reference of the peer review were to review the biosphere assessment methodology being used for the total system performance assessment of the potential disposal facility. The main purpose was to analyze critically the proposed rationale and methodology and to identify consistencies and inconsistencies between methods being used in the frame of the Project and those established in international standards or in international programmes such as the IAEA's Biosphere Modelling and Assessment Programme (BIOMASS). This report presents the consensus view of the international experts convened by the IAEA for carrying out the review

  5. The Biosphere: A Decadal Vision

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peterson, David L.; Curran, Paul J.; Mlynzcak, Marty; Miller, Richard

    2003-01-01

    This paper focuses on biosphere-climate interactions including the influences of human activities. Recognizing this is only one aspect of biospheric processes, this places an emphasis of those biogeochemical processes that have a profound effect on numerous other aspects of the biosphere and the services it provides, services which are critical to sustaining life on Earth. And, the paper will focus on the various scientific aspects of assessing the availability of fresh water, including its sensitivity to climate variance and land use changes. Finally, this paper hopes to emphasize the potential role that greatly expanded space observations and interactive modeling can play in developing our understanding of Earth and its the living systems.

  6. Challenging terrestrial biosphere models with data from the long-term multifactor Prairie Heating and CO2 Enrichment experiment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Kauwe, Martin G; Medlyn, Belinda E; Walker, Anthony P; Zaehle, Sönke; Asao, Shinichi; Guenet, Bertrand; Harper, Anna B; Hickler, Thomas; Jain, Atul K; Luo, Yiqi; Lu, Xingjie; Luus, Kristina; Parton, William J; Shu, Shijie; Wang, Ying-Ping; Werner, Christian; Xia, Jianyang; Pendall, Elise; Morgan, Jack A; Ryan, Edmund M; Carrillo, Yolima; Dijkstra, Feike A; Zelikova, Tamara J; Norby, Richard J

    2017-09-01

    Multifactor experiments are often advocated as important for advancing terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs), yet to date, such models have only been tested against single-factor experiments. We applied 10 TBMs to the multifactor Prairie Heating and CO 2 Enrichment (PHACE) experiment in Wyoming, USA. Our goals were to investigate how multifactor experiments can be used to constrain models and to identify a road map for model improvement. We found models performed poorly in ambient conditions; there was a wide spread in simulated above-ground net primary productivity (range: 31-390 g C m -2  yr -1 ). Comparison with data highlighted model failures particularly with respect to carbon allocation, phenology, and the impact of water stress on phenology. Performance against the observations from single-factors treatments was also relatively poor. In addition, similar responses were predicted for different reasons across models: there were large differences among models in sensitivity to water stress and, among the N cycle models, N availability during the experiment. Models were also unable to capture observed treatment effects on phenology: they overestimated the effect of warming on leaf onset and did not allow CO 2 -induced water savings to extend the growing season length. Observed interactive (CO 2  × warming) treatment effects were subtle and contingent on water stress, phenology, and species composition. As the models did not correctly represent these processes under ambient and single-factor conditions, little extra information was gained by comparing model predictions against interactive responses. We outline a series of key areas in which this and future experiments could be used to improve model predictions of grassland responses to global change. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  7. Description, calibration and sensitivity analysis of the local ecosystem submodel of a global model of carbon and nitrogen cycling and the water balance in the terrestrial biosphere

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kercher, J.R. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab., CA (United States); Chambers, J.Q. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab., CA (United States)]|[California Univ., Santa Barbara, CA (United States). Dept. of Biological Sciences

    1995-10-01

    We have developed a geographically-distributed ecosystem model for the carbon, nitrogen, and water dynamics of the terrestrial biosphere TERRA. The local ecosystem model of TERRA consists of coupled, modified versions of TEM and DAYTRANS. The ecosystem model in each grid cell calculates water fluxes of evaporation, transpiration, and runoff; carbon fluxes of gross primary productivity, litterfall, and plant and soil respiration; and nitrogen fluxes of vegetation uptake, litterfall, mineralization, immobilization, and system loss. The state variables are soil water content; carbon in live vegetation; carbon in soil; nitrogen in live vegetation; organic nitrogen in soil and fitter; available inorganic nitrogen aggregating nitrites, nitrates, and ammonia; and a variable for allocation. Carbon and nitrogen dynamics are calibrated to specific sites in 17 vegetation types. Eight parameters are determined during calibration for each of the 17 vegetation types. At calibration, the annual average values of carbon in vegetation C, show site differences that derive from the vegetation-type specific parameters and intersite variation in climate and soils. From calibration, we recover the average C{sub v} of forests, woodlands, savannas, grasslands, shrublands, and tundra that were used to develop the model initially. The timing of the phases of the annual variation is driven by temperature and light in the high latitude and moist temperate zones. The dry temperate zones are driven by temperature, precipitation, and light. In the tropics, precipitation is the key variable in annual variation. The seasonal responses are even more clearly demonstrated in net primary production and show the same controlling factors.

  8. Solid phase evolution in the Biosphere 2 hillslope experiment as predicted by modeling of hydrologic and geochemical fluxes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dontsova, K.; Steefel, C.I.; Desilets, S.; Thompson, A.; Chorover, J.

    2009-07-15

    A reactive transport geochemical modeling study was conducted to help predict the mineral transformations occurring over a ten year time-scale that are expected to impact soil hydraulic properties in the Biosphere 2 (B2) synthetic hillslope experiment. The modeling sought to predict the rate and extent of weathering of a granular basalt (selected for hillslope construction) as a function of climatic drivers, and to assess the feedback effects of such weathering processes on the hydraulic properties of the hillslope. Flow vectors were imported from HYDRUS into a reactive transport code, CrunchFlow2007, which was then used to model mineral weathering coupled to reactive solute transport. Associated particle size evolution was translated into changes in saturated hydraulic conductivity using Rosetta software. We found that flow characteristics, including velocity and saturation, strongly influenced the predicted extent of incongruent mineral weathering and neo-phase precipitation on the hillslope. Results were also highly sensitive to specific surface areas of the soil media, consistent with surface reaction controls on dissolution. Effects of fluid flow on weathering resulted in significant differences in the prediction of soil particle size distributions, which should feedback to alter hillslope hydraulic conductivities.

  9. A Biosphere Assessment: Influence due to Geosphere-Biosphere Interfaces

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Youn Myoung; Hwang, Yong Soo

    2009-01-01

    Recently the geosphere-biosphere interfaces (GBIs), which is recognized as a zone (GBIZ) beyond the simple conceptual boundaries between the geosphere and biosphere modeling domains for safety assessment, has been raised to an important issue for the biosphere assessment. For the licensing process of the repository, the final step of a series of safety and performance assessment should be concerned how nuclides released from the geological media could make their farther transfer in the biosphere giving rise to doses to humans. Unlike in the case of geosphere, the distinct characteristics of biosphere modeling includes the potential release and subsequent exposure taking place not in the near future with rather unreliable predictions of human behavior at the time of its release. And also unlike the near- and far-field of geospheres such as near field engineering structures and natural geological media, the biosphere is not conceived as a barrier itself that could be well designed or optimized, which always causes the necessity of site-specific modeling approach as much as possible. Through every step of whole geosphere and biosphere modeling, nuclides transport from various geological media to the biosphere over the GBI, biosphere modeling can be done independently, not even knowing what happens in the geosphere, making access possible to it in a separate manner, even though, to some extent, it might somehow need to be accounted for geosphere transport, as is similarly being currently done in many other countries. In general, to show the performance of the repository, dose exposure to the critical group due to nuclide release from the repository should be evaluated and the results compared to the risk or dose presented by regulatory bodies, as safety and performance criteria for HLW repository are usually expressed in terms of quantitative risk or dose. For a real site-specific treatment and incorporation of geological features such as aquifers into the biosphere

  10. Assessing filtering of mountaintop CO2 mole fractions for application to inverse models of biosphere-atmosphere carbon exchange

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. L. Heck

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available There is a widely recognized need to improve our understanding of biosphere-atmosphere carbon exchanges in areas of complex terrain including the United States Mountain West. CO2 fluxes over mountainous terrain are often difficult to measure due to unusual and complicated influences associated with atmospheric transport. Consequently, deriving regional fluxes in mountain regions with carbon cycle inversion of atmospheric CO2 mole fraction is sensitive to filtering of observations to those that can be represented at the transport model resolution. Using five years of CO2 mole fraction observations from the Regional Atmospheric Continuous CO2 Network in the Rocky Mountains (Rocky RACCOON, five statistical filters are used to investigate a range of approaches for identifying regionally representative CO2 mole fractions. Test results from three filters indicate that subsets based on short-term variance and local CO2 gradients across tower inlet heights retain nine-tenths of the total observations and are able to define representative diel variability and seasonal cycles even for difficult-to-model sites where the influence of local fluxes is much larger than regional mole fraction variations. Test results from two other filters that consider measurements from previous and following days using spline fitting or sliding windows are overly selective. Case study examples showed that these windowing-filters rejected measurements representing synoptic changes in CO2, which suggests that they are not well suited to filtering continental CO2 measurements. We present a novel CO2 lapse rate filter that uses CO2 differences between levels in the model atmosphere to select subsets of site measurements that are representative on model scales. Our new filtering techniques provide guidance for novel approaches to assimilating mountain-top CO2 mole fractions in carbon cycle inverse models.

  11. European-wide simulations of present cropland phenology, productivity and carbon fluxes using an improved terrestrial biosphere model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, P. C.; Ciais, P.; de Noblet, N.; Peylin, P.; Viovy, N.; Bondeau, A.

    2009-04-01

    Aiming at producing improved estimates of carbon source/sink spatial and interannual patterns across Europe (35% croplands), this work combines the terrestrial biosphere model ORCHIDEE (for vegetation productivity, water balance, soil carbon dynamics) and the generic crop model STICS (for phenology, irrigation, nitrogen balance, harvest). The ORCHIDEE-STICS model, relying on three plant functional types for the representation of temperate agriculture, is evaluated over the last few decades at various spatial and temporal resolutions. The simulated Leaf Area Index seasonal cycle is largely improved relative to the original ORCHIDEE simulating grasslands, and compares favourably with remote-sensing observations (the Figure of Merit in Time doubles over Europe). Crop yield is derived from annual Net Primary Productivity and compared with wheat and grain maize harvest data for five European countries. Discrepancies between 30-year mean simulated and reported yields remain large in Mediterranean countries. Interannual variability amplitude expressed relative to the mean is reduced towards the observed variability (~10%) when using ORCHIDEE-STICS. The simulated 2003 anomalous carbon source from European ecosystems to the atmosphere due to the 2003 summer heat wave is in good agreement with atmospheric inversions (~0.2 GtC, from May to October). The anomaly is twice as large in the ORCHIDEE alone simulation, owing to the unrealistically high exposure of herbaceous plants to the extreme summer conditions. Overall, this study highlights the importance of accounting for the specific phonologies of crops sown both in winter and in spring and for irrigation applied to summer crops in regional/global models of the terrestrial carbon cycle. Limitations suggest accounting for temporal and spatial variability in agricultural practices for further simulation improvement.

  12. Biosphere 2 anew

    Science.gov (United States)

    The seven scientists who volunteered to live in Biosphere 2 for the past 6.5 months will be reentering the real world this Saturday, September 17, as Biosphere's new management team shifts into high gear to revitalize the $150 million sealed ecosystem's science plan. The new management team stepped in April 1 after a court order obtained by the project's owner Ed Bass kicked out its then prevailing management team. In mid-August, Biosphere 2 announced that it had joined forces with Columbia University's Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory in a nonprofit venture to set a new research agenda for the reportedly troubled 3.2-acre facility. Biosphere has commissioned about a dozen white papers to be written during the next 7 months to help articulate the optimum science program. “The past really isn't the issue,” says biogeochemist Bruno Marino, Biosphere's new research director.

  13. Physiological state of life in the buried biosphere: insights from amino acid racemization modeling and superresolution microscopy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Braun, Stefan

    2016-01-01

    Ocean sediments harbor a microbial ecosystem that vertically extends into the seafloor for more than two kilometers in certain regions of the World Ocean. The activity of the microorganisms in this deep, buried biosphere bridges the biologi- cal and geological element cycles. At the seafloor...... growth and metabolic activity in the deep biosphere are, however, poorly under- stood. It is unclear whether the majority of deeply buried microbes is (i) dormant, or (ii) spending available energy and nutrients for maintaining essential biomolecules and functions, or (iii) adapting to the low energy...... decrease their water content and grow small cell sizes as adaptation to the low energy flux in the deep biosphere. Possibly, the low water content of the cells limits biomolecule decay and makes the cells less prone to intracellular damage from chemical reactions such as amino acid racemization, protein...

  14. Safety case for the disposal of spent nuclear fuel at Olkiluoto. Terrain and ecosystems development modelling in the biosphere assessment BSA-2012

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2013-12-01

    This report is one of the four supporting reports for the three main biosphere reports in the safety case for the disposal of spent nuclear fuel at Olkiluoto, 'TURVA-2012'. The focus of this report is to detail the scenario analysis of terrain and ecosystems development at the Olkiluoto repository site within a time frame of 10 000 years, whereas the input data to this modelling is detailed in the Data Basis report. The results are used further especially in the surface and near-surface hydrological modelling and in the biosphere radionuclide transport and dose modelling, both part of the biosphere assessment 'BSA-2012' feeding into the safety case. Based on the results of the 18 cases simulated in the scenario analysis, it can be outlined that the most significant differences in respect of the dose implications of the repository arise from the inputs and settings affecting the rate of coastline retreat (i.e. land uplift and sea level) and determining whether there are croplands or not in the area. (orig.)

  15. Evaluating Biosphere Model Estimates of the Start of the Vegetation Active Season in Boreal Forests by Satellite Observations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kristin Böttcher

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this study was to assess the performance of the simulated start of the photosynthetically active season by a large-scale biosphere model in boreal forests in Finland with remote sensing observations. The start of season for two forest types, evergreen needle- and deciduous broad-leaf, was obtained for the period 2003–2011 from regional JSBACH (Jena Scheme for Biosphere–Atmosphere Hamburg runs, driven with climate variables from a regional climate model. The satellite-derived start of season was determined from daily Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS time series of Fractional Snow Cover and the Normalized Difference Water Index by applying methods that were targeted to the two forest types. The accuracy of the satellite-derived start of season in deciduous forest was assessed with bud break observations of birch and a root mean square error of seven days was obtained. The evaluation of JSBACH modelled start of season dates with satellite observations revealed high spatial correspondence. The bias was less than five days for both forest types but showed regional differences that need further consideration. The agreement with satellite observations was slightly better for the evergreen than for the deciduous forest. Nonetheless, comparison with gross primary production (GPP determined from CO2 flux measurements at two eddy covariance sites in evergreen forest revealed that the JSBACH-simulated GPP was higher in early spring and led to too-early simulated start of season dates. Photosynthetic activity recovers differently in evergreen and deciduous forests. While for the deciduous forest calibration of phenology alone could improve the performance of JSBACH, for the evergreen forest, changes such as seasonality of temperature response, would need to be introduced to the photosynthetic capacity to improve the temporal development of gross primary production.

  16. How well do terrestrial biosphere models simulate coarse-scale runoff in the contiguous United States?

    Science.gov (United States)

    C.R. Schwalm; D.N. Huntzinger; R.B. Cook; Y. Wei; I.T. Baker; R.P. Neilson; B. Poulter; Peter Caldwell; G. Sun; H.Q. Tian; N. Zeng

    2015-01-01

    Significant changes in the water cycle are expected under current global environmental change. Robust assessment of present-day water cycle dynamics at continental to global scales is confounded by shortcomings in the observed record. Modeled assessments also yield conflicting results which are linked to differences in model structure and simulation protocol. Here we...

  17. Monitoring and modelling of biosphere/atmosphere exchange of gases and aerosols in Europe

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Erisman, Jan Willem [Energy Research Centre of the Netherlands (ECN), P.O. Box 1, 1755 ZG Petten (Netherlands)]. E-mail: erisman@ecn.nl; Vermeulen, Alex [Energy Research Centre of the Netherlands (ECN), P.O. Box 1, 1755 ZG Petten (Netherlands); Hensen, Arjan [Energy Research Centre of the Netherlands (ECN), P.O. Box 1, 1755 ZG Petten (Netherlands); Flechard, Chris [Energy Research Centre of the Netherlands (ECN), P.O. Box 1, 1755 ZG Petten (Netherlands); Daemmgen, Ulrich [Federal Agricultural Research Centre, Institute of Agroecology, D-38116 Braunschweig, (Germany); Fowler, David [CEH, Bush Estate, Penicuik, Midlothian EH26 0QB (United Kingdom); Sutton, Mark [CEH, Bush Estate, Penicuik, Midlothian EH26 0QB (United Kingdom); Gruenhage, Ludger [Institute for Plant Ecology, Justus-Liebig-University, D-35392 Giessen (Germany); Tuovinen, Juha-Pekka [Finnish Meteorological Institute, FIN-00810 Helsinki (Finland)

    2005-02-01

    Monitoring and modelling of deposition of air pollutants is essential to develop and evaluate policies to abate the effects related to air pollution and to determine the losses of pollutants from the atmosphere. Techniques for monitoring wet deposition fluxes are widely applied. A recent intercomparison experiment, however, showed that the uncertainty in wet deposition is relatively high, up to 40%, apart from the fact that most samplers are biased because of a dry deposition contribution. Wet deposition amounts to about 80% of the total deposition in Europe with a range of 10-90% and uncertainty should therefore be decreased. During recent years the monitoring of dry deposition has become possible. Three sites have been operational for 5 years. The data are useful for model development, but also for model evaluation and monitoring of progress in policy. Data show a decline in SO{sub 2} dry deposition, whereas nitrogen deposition remained constant. Furthermore, surface affinities for pollutants changed leading to changes in deposition. Deposition models have been further developed and tested with dry deposition measurements and total deposition measurements on forests as derived from throughfall data. The comparison is reasonable given the measurement uncertainties. Progress in ozone surface exchange modelling and monitoring shows that stomatal uptake can be quantified with reasonable accuracy, but external surface uptake yields highest uncertainty. - Monitoring and modelling of the deposition of sulphur and nitrogen components and the exposure of ozone has gained much progress through the research within BIATEX.

  18. Studies on the radiological assessment and modeling of the biosphere in radioactive waste management in Spain; Estudio sobre la evaluacion radiologica y modelizacion de la biosfera en la gestion de residuos radioactivos en Espna

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Perez-Sanchez, D.; Trueba, C.; Robles, B.

    2011-07-01

    Assessments of long-term safety in radioactive waste management means that the annual radiation dose due to the possible release of radionuclides to the biosphere does not exceed regulatory limits for members of the public. To quantify these doses should first develop models that describe the behavior of radionuclides in the environment that could also calculate the concentrations in different compartments of the biosphere, then estimated radiation doses to humans and the environment through the different routes of exposure. This paper describes recent results obtained by developing projects related to safety assessment of the biosphere, which include several studies.

  19. Response of a One-Biosphere Nutrient Modeling System to Regional Land Use and Management Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    A multi-media system of nitrogen and co-pollutant models describing critical physical and chemical processes that cascade synergistically and competitively through the environment, the economy and society has been developed at the USEPA Office of Research and Development (see fig...

  20. The Danube Delta Biosphere Reserve Qualitative Reasoning Model - Education and Decision Support tool for Active Behaviour in Sustainable Development of this area

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    CIOACA Eugenia

    2007-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the three main steps necessary in preparing a new model based on Qualitative Reasoning (QR concept, for Danube Delta Biosphere Reserve (DDBR environmental system. These are: theDDBR system Concept map, the Global causal model, and the Structural model. The DDBR QR model is focused on describing the behaviour of this system related to those causes and their effects which hamper the system sustainable development, especially this system aquatic ecosystem behaviour governed by the water pollution process positive rate and its negative effect on biodiversity and human being health, for peolple living in oraround this area.

  1. Transport of radionuclides in the biosphere

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bundi, A.

    1983-10-01

    The dispersion of radionuclides in the biosphere and their uptake by man via various nutritional pathways is studied using a compartment model. The sample environment is the area of the lower Limmat and Aare valleys. General considerations of the compartmental description of the biosphere are made. The problem of the description of surface features, in particular soil, sediment and water, is studied in detail using the code BIOPATH. This study is intended to be an example of how a model of the biosphere could be constructed. It is shown that this is a reasonable model to calculate the spreading of radionuclides in the biosphere and that it indicates the relative significance of individual compartments, pathways and radionuclides. Calculated values of dose committment, however, should not be used as reference data for safety analyses. (Auth.)

  2. VIS and NIR land surface albedo sensitivity of the Ent Terrestrial Biosphere Model to forcing leaf area index

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montes, C.; Kiang, N. Y.; Ni-Meister, W.; Yang, W.; Schaaf, C.; Aleinov, I. D.; Jonas, J.; Zhao, F. A.; Yao, T.; Wang, Z.; Sun, Q.; Carrer, D.

    2016-12-01

    Land surface albedo is a major controlling factor in vegetation-atmosphere transfers, modifying the components of the energy budget, the ecosystem productivity and patterns of regional and global climate. General Circulation Models (GCMs) are coupled to Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs) to solve vegetation albedo by using simple schemes prescribing albedo based on vegetation classification, and approximations of canopy radiation transport for multiple plant functional types (PFTs). In this work, we aim at evaluating the sensitivity of the NASA Ent Terrestrial Biosphere Model (TBM), a demographic DGVM coupled to the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) GCM, in estimating VIS and NIR surface albedo by using variable forcing leaf area index (LAI). The Ent TBM utilizes a new Global Vegetation Structure Dataset (GVSD) to account for geographically varying vegetation tree heights and densities, as boundary conditions to the gap-probability based Analytical Clumped Two-Stream (ACTS) canopy radiative transfer scheme (Ni-Meister et al., 2010). Land surface and vegetation characteristics for the Ent GVSD are obtained from a number of earth observation platforms and algorithms, including the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) land cover and plant functional types (PFTs) (Friedl et al., 2010), soil albedo derived from MODIS (Carrer et al., 2014), and vegetation height from the Geoscience Laser Altimeter System (GLAS) on board ICESat (Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation Satellite) (Simard et al., 2011; Tang et al., 2014). Three LAI products are used as input to ACTS/Ent TBM: MODIS MOD15A2H product (Yang et al., 2006), Beijing Normal University LAI (Yuan et al., 2011), and Global Data Sets of Vegetation (LAI3g) (Zhu et al. 2013). The sensitivity of the Ent TBM VIS and NIR albedo to the three LAI products is assessed, compared against the previous GISS GCM vegetation classification and prescribed Lambertian albedoes (Matthews, 1984), and against

  3. The disposal of Canada's nuclear fuel waste: a study of postclosure safety of in-room emplacement of used CANDU fuel in copper containers in permeable plutonic rock. Volume 4: biosphere model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zach, R.; Amiro, B.D.; Bird, G.A.; Macdonald, C.R.; Sheppard, M.I.; Sheppard, S.C.; Szekely, J.G.

    1996-06-01

    AECL (Atomic Energy of Canada Limited) has developed a disposal concept for Canada's nuclear fuel waste, which calls for a vault deep in plutonic rock of the Canadian Shield. The concept has been fully, documented in an environmental impact statement (EIS) for review by a panel under the Canadian Environmental Assessment Agency. The EIS includes the results of the EIS postclosure assessment case study to address the long term safety of the disposal concept. To more fully demonstrate the flexibility of the disposal concept and our assessment methodology, we are now carrying out another postclosure assessment study, which involves different assumptions and engineering options than those used in the EIS. In response to these changes, we have updated the BIOTRAC (BIOsphere Transport and Assessment Code) model developed for the EIS postclosure assessment case study. The main changes made to the BIOTRAC model are the inclusion of 36 Cl, 137 Cs, 239 Np and 243 Am; animals inhalation pathway; International Commission on Radiological Protection 60/61 human internal dose conversion factors; all the postclosure assessment nuclides in the dose calculations for non-human biota; and groundwater dose limits for 14 C, 16 C1 and 129 I for non-human biota to parallel these limits for humans. We have also reviewed and changed several parameter values, including evasion rates of gaseous nuclides from soil and release fractions of various nuclides from domestic water, and indicated changes that affect the geosphere/biosphere interface model. These changes make the BIOTRAC model more flexible. As a result of all of these changes, the BIOTRAC model has been significantly expanded and improved, although the changes do not greatly affect model predictions. The modified model for the present study is called BIOTRAC2 (BIOTRAC - Version 2). The full documentation of the BIOTRAC2 model includes the report by Davis et al. (1993a) and this report. (author). 105 refs., 13 tabs., 8 figs

  4. Testing of environmental transfer models using data from the atmospheric release of Iodine-131 from the Hanford site, USA, in 1963. Report of the Dose Reconstruction Working Group of the Biosphere Modelling and Assessment (BIOMASS) Programme, Theme 2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2003-03-01

    The IAEA Programme on BIOsphere Modelling and ASSessment (BIOMASS) was launched in Vienna in October 1996. The programme was concerned with developing and improving capabilities to predict the transfer of radionuclides in the environment. The programme had three themes: Theme 1: Radioactive Waste Disposal. The objective was to develop the concept of a standard or reference biosphere for application to the assessment of the long term safety of repositories for radioactive waste. Theme 2: Environmental Releases. BIOMASS provided an international forum for activities aimed at increasing the confidence in methods and models for the assessment of radiation exposure related to environmental releases. Two Working Groups addressed issues concerned with the reconstruction of radiation doses received by people from past releases of radionuclides to the environment and the evaluation of the efficacy of remedial measures. Theme 3: Biosphere Processes. The aim of this Theme was to improve capabilities for modelling the transfer of radionuclides in particular parts of the biosphere identified as being of potential radiological significance and where there were gaps in modelling approaches. This topic was explored using a range of methods including reviews of the literature, model inter-comparison exercises and, where possible, model testing against independent sources of data. Three Working Groups were established to examine the modelling of: (1) long term tritium dispersion in the environment; (2) radionuclide uptake by fruits; and (3) radionuclide migration and accumulation in forest ecosystems. This report describes results of the studies undertaken by the Dose Reconstruction Working Group under Theme 2

  5. Review of geosphere-biosphere interface processes and their handling in the safety case of Posiva

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lahdenperae, A.-M.

    2006-12-01

    The report describes list of databases of the Features, Events and Processes (FEPs) on the basis of the current knowledge and ranks them for their potential importance of radionuclide transport in the Safety Case. Due to vast amount of FEPs, only those assessed as potentially significant for the geosphere-biosphere interface zone (GBIZ) are described in detail. However, for scientific understanding also general main FEPs in the GBIZ are incorporated whether they affect directly radionuclide transport or not. The geosphere-biosphere interface zone, or the boundaries between the geosphere and biosphere modelling domains of the safety assessment, has been raised to an important issue but, according to the reports, it has so far taken into account rather poorly or not at all. Thus, it is acknowledged that a genuine site-specific treatment and incorporation of (deeper) overburden and aquifers into the biosphere models are needed to cover all relevant FEPs and to treat properly the zone in the modeling chain of groundwater flow and geosphere and biosphere transport of radionuclides. The principal variability in the GBIZ, especially in the biosphere, is driven by climatic change. The change from bedrock groundwater to bioavailable region takes place without gaps in the top bedrock to the overburden. However, it is important to recognise that there are regions in GBIZ that overlap the geosphere and biosphere model domains problems envisaged with the treatment of the GBIZ are associated with defining the boundary conditions for both far field and biosphere models. The GBIZ is not a separate modelling domain and the processes and events affecting the transport of radionuclides within the GBIZ should not be considered to be unidirectional. The biosphere is a diverse system under continuous development and impossible to model accurately. Thus, some inherent uncertainty already in the conceptual level of modelling has to be accepted. In addition of needs to handle spatial and

  6. Feedbacks between climate change and biosphere integrity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lade, Steven; Anderies, J. Marty; Donges, Jonathan; Steffen, Will; Rockström, Johan; Richardson, Katherine; Cornell, Sarah; Norberg, Jon; Fetzer, Ingo

    2017-04-01

    The terrestrial and marine biospheres sink substantial fractions of human fossil fuel emissions. How the biosphere's capacity to sink carbon depends on biodiversity and other measures of biosphere integrity is however poorly understood. Here, we (1): review assumptions from literature regarding the relationships between the carbon cycle and the terrestrial and marine biospheres; and (2) explore the consequences of these different assumptions for climate feedbacks using the stylised carbon cycle model PB-INT. We find that: terrestrial biodiversity loss could significantly dampen climate-carbon cycle feedbacks; direct biodiversity effects, if they exist, could rival temperature increases from low-emission trajectories; and the response of the marine biosphere is critical for longer term climate change. Simple, low-dimensional climate models such as PB-INT can help assess the importance of still unknown or controversial earth system processes such as biodiversity loss for climate feedbacks. This study constitutes the first detailed study of the interactions between climate change and biosphere integrity, two of the 'planetary boundaries'.

  7. The EC BIOCLIM Project (2000-2003), 5. Euratom Framework Programme - Modelling sequential biosphere systems under climate change for radioactive waste disposal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Calvez, Marianne

    2002-01-01

    Marianne Calvez (ANDRA, France) presented the new EC BIOCLIM project that started in 2001. Its main objective is to provide a scientific basis and practical methodology for assessing the possible long-term impacts on the safety of radioactive waste repositories in deep formations due to climate driven changes. She explained that BIOCLIM objective is not to predict what will be the future but will correspond to an illustration of how people could use the knowledge. The BIOCLIM project will use the outcomes from the Biomass project. Where Biomass considered discrete biospheres, the BIOCLIM project will consider the evolution of climate with a focus on the European climate for three regions in the United Kingdom, France and Spain. The consortium of BIOCLIM participants consists of various experts in climate modelling and various experts and organisations in performance assessment. The intent is to build an integrated dynamic climate model that represents all the important mechanisms for long-term climate evolution. The modelling will primarily address the next 200000 years. The final outcome will be an enhancement of the state-of-the-art treatment of biosphere system change over long periods of time through the use of a number of innovative climate modelling approaches and the application of the climate model outputs in performance assessments

  8. Robust estimation of hydrological model parameters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Bárdossy

    2008-11-01

    Full Text Available The estimation of hydrological model parameters is a challenging task. With increasing capacity of computational power several complex optimization algorithms have emerged, but none of the algorithms gives a unique and very best parameter vector. The parameters of fitted hydrological models depend upon the input data. The quality of input data cannot be assured as there may be measurement errors for both input and state variables. In this study a methodology has been developed to find a set of robust parameter vectors for a hydrological model. To see the effect of observational error on parameters, stochastically generated synthetic measurement errors were applied to observed discharge and temperature data. With this modified data, the model was calibrated and the effect of measurement errors on parameters was analysed. It was found that the measurement errors have a significant effect on the best performing parameter vector. The erroneous data led to very different optimal parameter vectors. To overcome this problem and to find a set of robust parameter vectors, a geometrical approach based on Tukey's half space depth was used. The depth of the set of N randomly generated parameters was calculated with respect to the set with the best model performance (Nash-Sutclife efficiency was used for this study for each parameter vector. Based on the depth of parameter vectors, one can find a set of robust parameter vectors. The results show that the parameters chosen according to the above criteria have low sensitivity and perform well when transfered to a different time period. The method is demonstrated on the upper Neckar catchment in Germany. The conceptual HBV model was used for this study.

  9. Model parameter updating using Bayesian networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Treml, C. A. (Christine A.); Ross, Timothy J.

    2004-01-01

    This paper outlines a model parameter updating technique for a new method of model validation using a modified model reference adaptive control (MRAC) framework with Bayesian Networks (BNs). The model parameter updating within this method is generic in the sense that the model/simulation to be validated is treated as a black box. It must have updateable parameters to which its outputs are sensitive, and those outputs must have metrics that can be compared to that of the model reference, i.e., experimental data. Furthermore, no assumptions are made about the statistics of the model parameter uncertainty, only upper and lower bounds need to be specified. This method is designed for situations where a model is not intended to predict a complete point-by-point time domain description of the item/system behavior; rather, there are specific points, features, or events of interest that need to be predicted. These specific points are compared to the model reference derived from actual experimental data. The logic for updating the model parameters to match the model reference is formed via a BN. The nodes of this BN consist of updateable model input parameters and the specific output values or features of interest. Each time the model is executed, the input/output pairs are used to adapt the conditional probabilities of the BN. Each iteration further refines the inferred model parameters to produce the desired model output. After parameter updating is complete and model inputs are inferred, reliabilities for the model output are supplied. Finally, this method is applied to a simulation of a resonance control cooling system for a prototype coupled cavity linac. The results are compared to experimental data.

  10. Earth's early biosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Des Marais, D. J.

    1998-01-01

    Understanding our own early biosphere is essential to our search for life elsewhere, because life arose on Earth very early and rocky planets shared similar early histories. The biosphere arose before 3.8 Ga ago, was exclusively unicellular and was dominated by hyperthermophiles that utilized chemical sources of energy and employed a range of metabolic pathways for CO2 assimilation. Photosynthesis also arose very early. Oxygenic photosynthesis arose later but still prior to 2.7 Ga. The transition toward the modern global environment was paced by a decline in volcanic and hydrothermal activity. These developments allowed atmospheric O2 levels to increase. The O2 increase created new niches for aerobic life, most notably the more advanced Eukarya that eventually spawned the megascopic fauna and flora of our modern biosphere.

  11. On parameter estimation in deformable models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fisker, Rune; Carstensen, Jens Michael

    1998-01-01

    Deformable templates have been intensively studied in image analysis through the last decade, but despite its significance the estimation of model parameters has received little attention. We present a method for supervised and unsupervised model parameter estimation using a general Bayesian form...

  12. Slowing Down Biospheric Change

    OpenAIRE

    Cairns, John

    2010-01-01

    In the latter part of the 20th century and the beginning of the 21st century, rapid climate change and damage to the biosphere have increased the risks to Homo sapiens. So much harm has already been done to the biosphere and the climate system that it will require humankind to adapt to the existing and new conditions in order to survive. In order for this information to reach and impact the public, scientists, politicians, and the news media need to work together to communicate their ideas t...

  13. Parameter identification in the logistic STAR model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ekner, Line Elvstrøm; Nejstgaard, Emil

    We propose a new and simple parametrization of the so-called speed of transition parameter of the logistic smooth transition autoregressive (LSTAR) model. The new parametrization highlights that a consequence of the well-known identification problem of the speed of transition parameter is that th......We propose a new and simple parametrization of the so-called speed of transition parameter of the logistic smooth transition autoregressive (LSTAR) model. The new parametrization highlights that a consequence of the well-known identification problem of the speed of transition parameter...

  14. Nominal Performance Biosphere Dose Conversion Factor Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    M. Wasiolek

    2000-12-21

    The purpose of this report was to document the process leading to development of the Biosphere Dose Conversion Factors (BDCFs) for the postclosure nominal performance of the potential repository at Yucca Mountain. BDCF calculations concerned twenty-four radionuclides. This selection included sixteen radionuclides that may be significant nominal performance dose contributors during the compliance period of up to 10,000 years, five additional radionuclides of importance for up to 1 million years postclosure, and three relatively short-lived radionuclides important for the human intrusion scenario. Consideration of radionuclide buildup in soil caused by previous irrigation with contaminated groundwater was taken into account in the BDCF development. The effect of climate evolution, from the current arid conditions to a wetter and cooler climate, on the BDCF values was evaluated. The analysis included consideration of different exposure pathway's contribution to the BDCFs. Calculations of nominal performance BDCFs used the GENII-S computer code in a series of probabilistic realizations to propagate the uncertainties of input parameters into the output. BDCFs for the nominal performance, when combined with the concentrations of radionuclides in groundwater allow calculation of potential radiation doses to the receptor of interest. Calculated estimates of radionuclide concentration in groundwater result from the saturated zone modeling. The integration of the biosphere modeling results (BDCFs) with the outcomes of the other component models is accomplished in the Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) to calculate doses to the receptor of interest from radionuclides postulated to be released to the environment from the potential repository at Yucca Mountain.

  15. Nominal Performance Biosphere Dose Conversion Factor Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wasiolek, M.

    2000-01-01

    The purpose of this report was to document the process leading to development of the Biosphere Dose Conversion Factors (BDCFs) for the postclosure nominal performance of the potential repository at Yucca Mountain. BDCF calculations concerned twenty-four radionuclides. This selection included sixteen radionuclides that may be significant nominal performance dose contributors during the compliance period of up to 10,000 years, five additional radionuclides of importance for up to 1 million years postclosure, and three relatively short-lived radionuclides important for the human intrusion scenario. Consideration of radionuclide buildup in soil caused by previous irrigation with contaminated groundwater was taken into account in the BDCF development. The effect of climate evolution, from the current arid conditions to a wetter and cooler climate, on the BDCF values was evaluated. The analysis included consideration of different exposure pathway's contribution to the BDCFs. Calculations of nominal performance BDCFs used the GENII-S computer code in a series of probabilistic realizations to propagate the uncertainties of input parameters into the output. BDCFs for the nominal performance, when combined with the concentrations of radionuclides in groundwater allow calculation of potential radiation doses to the receptor of interest. Calculated estimates of radionuclide concentration in groundwater result from the saturated zone modeling. The integration of the biosphere modeling results (BDCFs) with the outcomes of the other component models is accomplished in the Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) to calculate doses to the receptor of interest from radionuclides postulated to be released to the environment from the potential repository at Yucca Mountain

  16. Variability of Phenology and Fluxes of Water and Carbon with Observed and Simulated Soil Moisture in the Ent Terrestrial Biosphere Model (Ent TBM Version 1.0.1.0.0)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Y.; Moorcroft, P. R.; Aleinov, Igor; Puma, M. J.; Kiang, N. Y.

    2015-01-01

    The Ent Terrestrial Biosphere Model (Ent TBM) is a mixed-canopy dynamic global vegetation model developed specifically for coupling with land surface hydrology and general circulation models (GCMs). This study describes the leaf phenology submodel implemented in the Ent TBM version 1.0.1.0.0 coupled to the carbon allocation scheme of the Ecosystem Demography (ED) model. The phenology submodel adopts a combination of responses to temperature (growing degree days and frost hardening), soil moisture (linearity of stress with relative saturation) and radiation (light length). Growth of leaves, sapwood, fine roots, stem wood and coarse roots is updated on a daily basis. We evaluate the performance in reproducing observed leaf seasonal growth as well as water and carbon fluxes for four plant functional types at five Fluxnet sites, with both observed and prognostic hydrology, and observed and prognostic seasonal leaf area index. The phenology submodel is able to capture the timing and magnitude of leaf-out and senescence for temperate broadleaf deciduous forest (Harvard Forest and Morgan- Monroe State Forest, US), C3 annual grassland (Vaira Ranch, US) and California oak savanna (Tonzi Ranch, US). For evergreen needleleaf forest (Hyytiäla, Finland), the phenology submodel captures the effect of frost hardening of photosynthetic capacity on seasonal fluxes and leaf area. We address the importance of customizing parameter sets of vegetation soil moisture stress response to the particular land surface hydrology scheme. We identify model deficiencies that reveal important dynamics and parameter needs.

  17. Parameter Estimation of Partial Differential Equation Models

    KAUST Repository

    Xun, Xiaolei

    2013-09-01

    Partial differential equation (PDE) models are commonly used to model complex dynamic systems in applied sciences such as biology and finance. The forms of these PDE models are usually proposed by experts based on their prior knowledge and understanding of the dynamic system. Parameters in PDE models often have interesting scientific interpretations, but their values are often unknown and need to be estimated from the measurements of the dynamic system in the presence of measurement errors. Most PDEs used in practice have no analytic solutions, and can only be solved with numerical methods. Currently, methods for estimating PDE parameters require repeatedly solving PDEs numerically under thousands of candidate parameter values, and thus the computational load is high. In this article, we propose two methods to estimate parameters in PDE models: a parameter cascading method and a Bayesian approach. In both methods, the underlying dynamic process modeled with the PDE model is represented via basis function expansion. For the parameter cascading method, we develop two nested levels of optimization to estimate the PDE parameters. For the Bayesian method, we develop a joint model for data and the PDE and develop a novel hierarchical model allowing us to employ Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques to make posterior inference. Simulation studies show that the Bayesian method and parameter cascading method are comparable, and both outperform other available methods in terms of estimation accuracy. The two methods are demonstrated by estimating parameters in a PDE model from long-range infrared light detection and ranging data. Supplementary materials for this article are available online. © 2013 American Statistical Association.

  18. Application of lumped-parameter models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ibsen, Lars Bo; Liingaard, M.

    2006-12-15

    This technical report concerns the lumped-parameter models for a suction caisson with a ratio between skirt length and foundation diameter equal to 1/2, embedded into an viscoelastic soil. The models are presented for three different values of the shear modulus of the subsoil. Subsequently, the assembly of the dynamic stiffness matrix for the foundation is considered, and the solution for obtaining the steady state response, when using lumped-parameter models is given. (au)

  19. CHAMP: Changepoint Detection Using Approximate Model Parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-06-01

    form (with independent emissions or otherwise), in which parameter estimates are available via means such as maximum likelihood fit, MCMC , or sample ...counterparts, including the ability to generate a full posterior distribution over changepoint locations and offering a natural way to incorporate prior... sample consensus method. Our modifications also remove a significant restriction on model definition when detecting parameter changes within a single

  20. Disruptive Event Biosphere Doser Conversion Factor Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    M. Wasiolek

    2000-12-28

    The purpose of this report was to document the process leading to, and the results of, development of radionuclide-, exposure scenario-, and ash thickness-specific Biosphere Dose Conversion Factors (BDCFs) for the postulated postclosure extrusive igneous event (volcanic eruption) at Yucca Mountain. BDCF calculations were done for seventeen radionuclides. The selection of radionuclides included those that may be significant dose contributors during the compliance period of up to 10,000 years, as well as radionuclides of importance for up to 1 million years postclosure. The approach documented in this report takes into account human exposure during three different phases at the time of, and after, volcanic eruption. Calculations of disruptive event BDCFs used the GENII-S computer code in a series of probabilistic realizations to propagate the uncertainties of input parameters into the output. The pathway analysis included consideration of different exposure pathway's contribution to the BDCFs. BDCFs for volcanic eruption, when combined with the concentration of radioactivity deposited by eruption on the soil surface, allow calculation of potential radiation doses to the receptor of interest. Calculation of radioactivity deposition is outside the scope of this report and so is the transport of contaminated ash from the volcano to the location of the receptor. The integration of the biosphere modeling results (BDCFs) with the outcomes of the other component models is accomplished in the Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA), in which doses are calculated to the receptor of interest from radionuclides postulated to be released to the environment from the potential repository at Yucca Mountain.

  1. Causes and timing of future biosphere extinctions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Franck

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available We present a minimal model for the global carbon cycle of the Earth containing the reservoirs mantle, ocean floor, continental crust, biosphere, and the kerogen, as well as the combined ocean and atmosphere reservoir. The model is specified by introducing three different types of biosphere: procaryotes, eucaryotes, and complex multicellular life. During the entire existence of the biosphere procaryotes are always present. 2 Gyr ago eucaryotic life first appears. The emergence of complex multicellular life is connected with an explosive increase in biomass and a strong decrease in Cambrian global surface temperature at about 0.54 Gyr ago. In the long-term future the three types of biosphere will die out in reverse sequence of their appearance. We show that there is no evidence for an implosion-like extinction in contrast to the Cambrian explosion. In dependence of their temperature tolerance complex multicellular life and eucaryotes become extinct in about 0.8–1.2 Gyr and 1.3–1.5 Gyr, respectively. The ultimate life span of the biosphere is defined by the extinction of procaryotes in about 1.6 Gyr.

  2. Exploiting intrinsic fluctuations to identify model parameters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zimmer, Christoph; Sahle, Sven; Pahle, Jürgen

    2015-04-01

    Parameterisation of kinetic models plays a central role in computational systems biology. Besides the lack of experimental data of high enough quality, some of the biggest challenges here are identification issues. Model parameters can be structurally non-identifiable because of functional relationships. Noise in measured data is usually considered to be a nuisance for parameter estimation. However, it turns out that intrinsic fluctuations in particle numbers can make parameters identifiable that were previously non-identifiable. The authors present a method to identify model parameters that are structurally non-identifiable in a deterministic framework. The method takes time course recordings of biochemical systems in steady state or transient state as input. Often a functional relationship between parameters presents itself by a one-dimensional manifold in parameter space containing parameter sets of optimal goodness. Although the system's behaviour cannot be distinguished on this manifold in a deterministic framework it might be distinguishable in a stochastic modelling framework. Their method exploits this by using an objective function that includes a measure for fluctuations in particle numbers. They show on three example models, immigration-death, gene expression and Epo-EpoReceptor interaction, that this resolves the non-identifiability even in the case of measurement noise with known amplitude. The method is applied to partially observed recordings of biochemical systems with measurement noise. It is simple to implement and it is usually very fast to compute. This optimisation can be realised in a classical or Bayesian fashion.

  3. Setting Parameters for Biological Models With ANIMO

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schivo, Stefano; Scholma, Jetse; Karperien, Hermanus Bernardus Johannes; Post, Janine Nicole; van de Pol, Jan Cornelis; Langerak, Romanus; André, Étienne; Frehse, Goran

    2014-01-01

    ANIMO (Analysis of Networks with Interactive MOdeling) is a software for modeling biological networks, such as e.g. signaling, metabolic or gene networks. An ANIMO model is essentially the sum of a network topology and a number of interaction parameters. The topology describes the interactions

  4. The legacy of biosphere 2 for the study of biospherics and closed ecological systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allen, J. P.; Nelson, M.; Alling, A.

    The unprecedented challenges of creating Biosphere 2, the world's first laboratory for biospherics, the study of global ecology and long-term closed ecological system dynamics, led to breakthrough developments in many fields, and a deeper understanding of the opportunities and difficulties of material closure. This paper will review accomplishments and challenges, citing some of the key research findings and publications that have resulted from the experiments in Biosphere 2. Engineering accomplishments included development of a technique for variable volume to deal with pressure differences between the facility and outside environment, developing methods of atmospheric leak detection and sealing, while achieving new standards of closure, with an annual atmospheric leakrate of less than 10%, or less than 300 ppm per day. This degree of closure permitted detailed tracking of carbon dioxide, oxygen, and trice gases such as nitrous oxide and ethylene over the seasonal variability of two years. Full closure also necessitated developing new approaches and technologies for complete air, water, and wastewater recycle and reuse within the facility. The development of a soil-based highly productive agricultural system was a first in closed ecological systems, and much was learned about managing a wide variety of crops using non-chemical means of pest and disease control. Closed ecological systems have different temporal biogeochemical cycling and ranges of atmospheric components because of their smaller reservoirs of air, water and soil, and higher concentration of biomass, and Biosphere 2 provided detailed examination and modeling of these accelerated cycles over a period of closure which measured in years. Medical research inside Biosphere 2 included the effects on humans of lowered oxygen: the discovery that human productivity can be maintained with good health with lowered atmospheric oxygen levels could lead to major economies on the design of space stations and

  5. Parameters and error of a theoretical model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moeller, P.; Nix, J.R.; Swiatecki, W.

    1986-09-01

    We propose a definition for the error of a theoretical model of the type whose parameters are determined from adjustment to experimental data. By applying a standard statistical method, the maximum-likelihoodlmethod, we derive expressions for both the parameters of the theoretical model and its error. We investigate the derived equations by solving them for simulated experimental and theoretical quantities generated by use of random number generators. 2 refs., 4 tabs

  6. Biosphere2 and Earthbuzz

    Science.gov (United States)

    Washburne, J. C.

    2009-12-01

    In an attempt to reach a broader audience, Biosphere 2, near Tucson, AZ, is participating in a network of science centers thanks to new funding through the Science Museum of Minnesota (SMM) and the National Center for Earth System Dynamics (NCED). Each of these centers will be tied together through an Earthbuzz kiosk, basically a networked web site that allows visitors to learn more about the work of leading local scientists in a very personal and captivating format. Content is currently being developed by Biosphere 2 researchers, staff, and graduate students that range from a public question and answer forum called “Scientist on the Spot” to science blogs by Biosphere 2 Fellows. It is hoped that this project will help educate the public about the Anthropocene, that is, the current geologic period that is so greatly affected by humankind’s impact on the health of the planet. Biosphere 2 provides a unique location to engage the public in this conversation for several reasons. First, no other destination on Earth gives the public such a physical immersion into what climate change might mean as does Biosphere 2. On the regular walking tour, visitors are guided through scaled down versions of an African savannah, a semi-arid thorn scrub, a coastal fog desert and a tropical rainforest. Digital displays of temperature and humidity confirm what your body is feeling - conditions ranging from desert aridity to tropical humidity. As one passes through the biomes of Biosphere 2, climate change is a whole body experience. Second, Biosphere 2 is also an active ecological research site - part of a unique network of sites run by the University of Arizona that allow scientists to study ecosystem processes across a range of scales - from microscopic root studies to studies encompassing large watersheds. In particular, a group of researchers is studying why large stands of pinion-juniper forests across the southwest have died in recent years. Biosphere2’s role in this

  7. Interim report on reference biospheres for radioactive waste disposal

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dorp, F. van [NAGRA (Switzerland)] [and others

    1994-10-01

    Primary criteria for repository safety are commonly expressed in terms of risk or dose, and a biosphere model is required to evaluate the corresponding assessment endpoints. Even when other indicators are used to express the safety goals, a biosphere model is still needed in order to justify those indicators. In safety or performance assessments of a repository, the uncertainties in space and time for the different components of the repository system have to be considered. For the biosphere component, prediction of future human habits, in particular, is extremely uncertain. This is especially important in the assessment of deep geological disposal, which involves very long timescales, particularly for wastes containing very long lived radionuclides. Thus, the results of biosphere modelling should not be seen as predictions, but as illustrations of the consequences that may occur, should the postulated release occur today or under other conditions implied by the underlying biosphere model assumptions. Differences in biosphere modelling approaches arise because of differences in regulations, the nature of the wastes to be disposed of, disposal site characteristics, disposal concepts and purposes of the assessment. Differences in treatment of uncertainties can also arise. For example, if doses or risks are anticipated to be far below regulatory limits, assessments may be based upon simplified and, necessarily, conservative biosphere models. At present biosphere models used to assess radioactive waste disposal show significant differences in the features, events and processes (FEPs) included or excluded. In general, the reasons for these differences have not been well documented or explained. Developments in radioecology have implications for biosphere modelling for radioactive waste disposal. In particular, after the Chernobyl accident, radioecological research has been significantly increased. Results of this research are already having and will continue to have a

  8. User's guide to the biosphere code ECOS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kane, P.; Thorne, M.C.

    1984-10-01

    This report constitutes the user's guide to the biosphere model ECOS and provides a detailed description of the processes modelled and mathematical formulations used. The FORTRAN code ECOS is an equilibrium-type compartmental biosphere code. ECOS was designed with the objective of producing a general but comprehensive code for use in the assessment of the radiological impact of unspecified geological repositories for radioactive waste. ECOS transforms the rate of release of activity from the geosphere to the rate of accumulation of weighted committed effective dose equivalent (dose). Both maximum individual dose (critical group dose) and collective dose rates may be computed. (author)

  9. Application of lumped-parameter models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ibsen, Lars Bo; Liingaard, Morten

    This technical report concerns the lumped-parameter models for a suction caisson with a ratio between skirt length and foundation diameter equal to 1/2, embedded into an viscoelastic soil. The models are presented for three different values of the shear modulus of the subsoil (section 1.1). Subse......This technical report concerns the lumped-parameter models for a suction caisson with a ratio between skirt length and foundation diameter equal to 1/2, embedded into an viscoelastic soil. The models are presented for three different values of the shear modulus of the subsoil (section 1...

  10. Integrated simulation of snow and glacier melt runoff in a distributed biosphere hydrological modeling framework at Upper Indus Basin, Karakoram region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shrestha, M.; Koike, T.; Xue, Y.; Wang, L.; Hirabayashi, Y.

    2014-12-01

    High mountain river basins in Hindukush Karakoram and Himalaya (HKH) regions are considered as 'water towers' of Asia with abundant source of fresh water as snow and glaciers. Upper Indus basin is one of the mega scale river basin in HKH region where snow and glaciermelt runoff is the major contributor to the annual runoff. The hostile climate, remote and extreme rough topography imposes many restraints regarding hydro-meteorological and glaciological observations, leading towards limited understanding of hydrological processes of river basins in this region. It is vital to integrate snow and glacier melt processes in a distributed biosphere hydrological framework to estimate the snow and glacier melt runoff and to quantify the river flow composition (snowmelt, glacier melt and rainfall contribution). An integrated system of distributed biosphere hydrological modeling framework with multilayer energy balance based snow and glaciermelt runoff schemes (WEB-DHM-S model) was implemented at Upper Indus basin (207300 km2) with a spatial resolution of 1 km and temporal resolution of an hour. Model input were meteorological forcing from Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS), APHRODITE precipitation and de-trended gridded air temperature from observations. Simulations were carried out for two hydrological years (2002-2003). Discharge simulation results at multiple gauges showed good agreement with the observed one having Nash efficiency at 0.86. The spatial distribution of snow cover is simulated well as compared to the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) derived eight-day maximum snow-cover extent data (MOD10A2). Model accuracy, overestimation error and underestimation error in snow cover simulation were obtained at 78%, 7% and 15% respectively. Uncertainty in precipitation was the main reason for the biases in seasonal variation of snow pixel errors. The model demonstrated its sound capability in comprehensive simulation of discharge with its flow

  11. Danube Delta Biosphere Reserve hydrographic network morphological dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    CIOACĂ Eugenia

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents the Danube Delta Biosphere Reserve (DDBR hydrographic network morphological changes investigated and presented as geospatial data as they resulted from fieldmeasurements. These data are part of a complex project started in 2007 (with the acronym MORFDD. As a preliminary stage of this project, they contribute to the DDBR hydrographic network mathematical / hydraulic model construction related to hydro-morphology and water quality dynamics. Geospatial data, related tomorphological parameters, aim to create a scientific knowledge on hydro-morphologic changes by emphasizing the DDBR hydrographic network zones where fluvial processes, erosion and alluvial sedimentation, are active.

  12. Setting Parameters for Biological Models With ANIMO

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stefano Schivo

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available ANIMO (Analysis of Networks with Interactive MOdeling is a software for modeling biological networks, such as e.g. signaling, metabolic or gene networks. An ANIMO model is essentially the sum of a network topology and a number of interaction parameters. The topology describes the interactions between biological entities in form of a graph, while the parameters determine the speed of occurrence of such interactions. When a mismatch is observed between the behavior of an ANIMO model and experimental data, we want to update the model so that it explains the new data. In general, the topology of a model can be expanded with new (known or hypothetical nodes, and enables it to match experimental data. However, the unrestrained addition of new parts to a model causes two problems: models can become too complex too fast, to the point of being intractable, and too many parts marked as "hypothetical" or "not known" make a model unrealistic. Even if changing the topology is normally the easier task, these problems push us to try a better parameter fit as a first step, and resort to modifying the model topology only as a last resource. In this paper we show the support added in ANIMO to ease the task of expanding the knowledge on biological networks, concentrating in particular on the parameter settings.

  13. Parameter Estimation for Thurstone Choice Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vojnovic, Milan [London School of Economics (United Kingdom); Yun, Seyoung [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2017-04-24

    We consider the estimation accuracy of individual strength parameters of a Thurstone choice model when each input observation consists of a choice of one item from a set of two or more items (so called top-1 lists). This model accommodates the well-known choice models such as the Luce choice model for comparison sets of two or more items and the Bradley-Terry model for pair comparisons. We provide a tight characterization of the mean squared error of the maximum likelihood parameter estimator. We also provide similar characterizations for parameter estimators defined by a rank-breaking method, which amounts to deducing one or more pair comparisons from a comparison of two or more items, assuming independence of these pair comparisons, and maximizing a likelihood function derived under these assumptions. We also consider a related binary classification problem where each individual parameter takes value from a set of two possible values and the goal is to correctly classify all items within a prescribed classification error. The results of this paper shed light on how the parameter estimation accuracy depends on given Thurstone choice model and the structure of comparison sets. In particular, we found that for unbiased input comparison sets of a given cardinality, when in expectation each comparison set of given cardinality occurs the same number of times, for a broad class of Thurstone choice models, the mean squared error decreases with the cardinality of comparison sets, but only marginally according to a diminishing returns relation. On the other hand, we found that there exist Thurstone choice models for which the mean squared error of the maximum likelihood parameter estimator can decrease much faster with the cardinality of comparison sets. We report empirical evaluation of some claims and key parameters revealed by theory using both synthetic and real-world input data from some popular sport competitions and online labor platforms.

  14. Factual biosphere database for Sellafield and the surrounding area

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Broderick, M.A.

    1991-12-01

    This report documents from open published sources a factual database appropriate to the Sellafield region including the coastal marine environment for present day biosphere conditions. A detailed description of the present day environment in the Sellafield area is provided. This includes a description of the natural environment and climate. Site specific data required for biosphere modelling are also outlined. (author)

  15. Reviewing Biosphere Reserves globally: effective conservation action or bureaucratic label?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coetzer, Kaera L; Witkowski, Edward T F; Erasmus, Barend F N

    2014-02-01

    The Biosphere Reserve (BR) model of UNESCO's Man and the Biosphere Programme reflects a shift towards more accountable conservation. Biosphere Reserves attempt to reconcile environmental protection with sustainable development; they explicitly acknowledge humans, and human interests in the conservation landscape while still maintaining the ecological values of existing protected areas. Conceptually, this model is attractive, with 610 sites currently designated globally. Yet the practical reality of implementing dual 'conservation' and 'development' goals is challenging, with few examples successfully conforming to the model's full criteria. Here, we review the history of Biosphere Reserves from first inception in 1974 to the current status quo, and examine the suitability of the designation as an effective conservation model. We track the spatial expansion of Biosphere Reserves globally, assessing the influence of the Statutory Framework of the World Network of Biosphere Reserves and Seville strategy in 1995, when the BR concept refocused its core objectives on sustainable development. We use a comprehensive range of case studies to discuss conformity to the Programme, the social and ecological consequences associated with implementation of the designation, and challenges in aligning conservation and development. Given that the 'Biosphere Reserve' label is a relatively unknown designation in the public arena, this review also provides details on popularising the Biosphere Reserve brand, as well as prospects for further research, currently unexploited, but implicit in the designation. © 2013 The Authors. Biological Reviews © 2013 Cambridge Philosophical Society.

  16. Factual biosphere database for Dounreay and the surrounding area

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Broderick, M.A.

    1991-12-01

    This report documents from open published sources a factual database appropriate to the Dounreay region including the coastal marine environment for present day biosphere conditions. A detailed description of the present day environment in the Dounreay area is provided. This includes a description of the natural environment and climate. Site specific data required for biosphere modelling are also outlined. (author)

  17. The SSI TOOLBOX Source Term Model SOSIM - Screening for important radionuclides and parameter sensitivity analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Avila Moreno, R.; Barrdahl, R.; Haegg, C.

    1995-05-01

    The main objective of the present study was to carry out a screening and a sensitivity analysis of the SSI TOOLBOX source term model SOSIM. This model is a part of the SSI TOOLBOX for radiological impact assessment of the Swedish disposal concept for high-level waste KBS-3. The outputs of interest for this purpose were: the total released fraction, the time of total release, the time and value of maximum release rate, the dose rates after direct releases of the biosphere. The source term equations were derived and simple equations and methods were proposed for calculation of these. A literature survey has been performed in order to determine a characteristic variation range and a nominal value for each model parameter. In order to reduce the model uncertainties the authors recommend a change in the initial boundary condition for solution of the diffusion equation for highly soluble nuclides. 13 refs

  18. Reconnecting to the biosphere.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Folke, Carl; Jansson, Asa; Rockström, Johan; Olsson, Per; Carpenter, Stephen R; Chapin, F Stuart; Crépin, Anne-Sophie; Daily, Gretchen; Danell, Kjell; Ebbesson, Jonas; Elmqvist, Thomas; Galaz, Victor; Moberg, Fredrik; Nilsson, Måns; Osterblom, Henrik; Ostrom, Elinor; Persson, Asa; Peterson, Garry; Polasky, Stephen; Steffen, Will; Walker, Brian; Westley, Frances

    2011-11-01

    Humanity has emerged as a major force in the operation of the biosphere, with a significant imprint on the Earth System, challenging social-ecological resilience. This new situation calls for a fundamental shift in perspectives, world views, and institutions. Human development and progress must be reconnected to the capacity of the biosphere and essential ecosystem services to be sustained. Governance challenges include a highly interconnected and faster world, cascading social-ecological interactions and planetary boundaries that create vulnerabilities but also opportunities for social-ecological change and transformation. Tipping points and thresholds highlight the importance of understanding and managing resilience. New modes of flexible governance are emerging. A central challenge is to reconnect these efforts to the changing preconditions for societal development as active stewards of the Earth System. We suggest that the Millennium Development Goals need to be reframed in such a planetary stewardship context combined with a call for a new social contract on global sustainability. The ongoing mind shift in human relations with Earth and its boundaries provides exciting opportunities for societal development in collaboration with the biosphere--a global sustainability agenda for humanity.

  19. Modelling and parameter estimation of dynamic systems

    CERN Document Server

    Raol, JR; Singh, J

    2004-01-01

    Parameter estimation is the process of using observations from a system to develop mathematical models that adequately represent the system dynamics. The assumed model consists of a finite set of parameters, the values of which are calculated using estimation techniques. Most of the techniques that exist are based on least-square minimization of error between the model response and actual system response. However, with the proliferation of high speed digital computers, elegant and innovative techniques like filter error method, H-infinity and Artificial Neural Networks are finding more and mor

  20. Models and parameters for environmental radiological assessments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Miller, C W [ed.

    1984-01-01

    This book presents a unified compilation of models and parameters appropriate for assessing the impact of radioactive discharges to the environment. Models examined include those developed for the prediction of atmospheric and hydrologic transport and deposition, for terrestrial and aquatic food-chain bioaccumulation, and for internal and external dosimetry. Chapters have been entered separately into the data base. (ACR)

  1. Consistent Stochastic Modelling of Meteocean Design Parameters

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Sterndorff, M. J.

    2000-01-01

    Consistent stochastic models of metocean design parameters and their directional dependencies are essential for reliability assessment of offshore structures. In this paper a stochastic model for the annual maximum values of the significant wave height, and the associated wind velocity, current...

  2. Models and parameters for environmental radiological assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miller, C.W.

    1984-01-01

    This book presents a unified compilation of models and parameters appropriate for assessing the impact of radioactive discharges to the environment. Models examined include those developed for the prediction of atmospheric and hydrologic transport and deposition, for terrestrial and aquatic food-chain bioaccumulation, and for internal and external dosimetry. Chapters have been entered separately into the data base

  3. Evolution of Earth-like Extrasolar Planetary Atmospheres: Assessing the Atmospheres and Biospheres of Early Earth Analog Planets with a Coupled Atmosphere Biogeochemical Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gebauer, S.; Grenfell, J. L.; Stock, J. W.; Lehmann, R.; Godolt, M.; von Paris, P.; Rauer, H.

    2017-01-01

    Understanding the evolution of Earth and potentially habitable Earth-like worlds is essential to fathom our origin in the Universe. The search for Earth-like planets in the habitable zone and investigation of their atmospheres with climate and photochemical models is a central focus in exoplanetary science. Taking the evolution of Earth as a reference for Earth-like planets, a central scientific goal is to understand what the interactions were between atmosphere, geology, and biology on early Earth. The Great Oxidation Event in Earth's history was certainly caused by their interplay, but the origin and controlling processes of this occurrence are not well understood, the study of which will require interdisciplinary, coupled models. In this work, we present results from our newly developed Coupled Atmosphere Biogeochemistry model in which atmospheric O2 concentrations are fixed to values inferred by geological evidence. Applying a unique tool (Pathway Analysis Program), ours is the first quantitative analysis of catalytic cycles that governed O2 in early Earth's atmosphere near the Great Oxidation Event. Complicated oxidation pathways play a key role in destroying O2, whereas in the upper atmosphere, most O2 is formed abiotically via CO2 photolysis. The O2 bistability found by Goldblatt et al. (2006) is not observed in our calculations likely due to our detailed CH4 oxidation scheme. We calculate increased CH4 with increasing O2 during the Great Oxidation Event. For a given atmospheric surface flux, different atmospheric states are possible; however, the net primary productivity of the biosphere that produces O2 is unique. Mixing, CH4 fluxes, ocean solubility, and mantle/crust properties strongly affect net primary productivity and surface O2 fluxes. Regarding exoplanets, different "states" of O2 could exist for similar biomass output. Strong geological activity could lead to false negatives for life (since our analysis suggests that reducing gases remove O2 that

  4. Global patterns and controls of soil organic carbon dynamics as simulated by multiple terrestrial biosphere models: Current status and future directions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tian, Hanqin; Lu, Chaoqun; Yang, Jia; Banger, Kamaljit; Huntzinger, Deborah N; Schwalm, Christopher R; Michalak, Anna M; Cook, Robert; Ciais, Philippe; Hayes, Daniel; Huang, Maoyi; Ito, Akihiko; Jain, Atul K; Lei, Huimin; Mao, Jiafu; Pan, Shufen; Post, Wilfred M; Peng, Shushi; Poulter, Benjamin; Ren, Wei; Ricciuto, Daniel; Schaefer, Kevin; Shi, Xiaoying; Tao, Bo; Wang, Weile; Wei, Yaxing; Yang, Qichun; Zhang, Bowen; Zeng, Ning

    2015-06-01

    Soil is the largest organic carbon (C) pool of terrestrial ecosystems, and C loss from soil accounts for a large proportion of land-atmosphere C exchange. Therefore, a small change in soil organic C (SOC) can affect atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) concentration and climate change. In the past decades, a wide variety of studies have been conducted to quantify global SOC stocks and soil C exchange with the atmosphere through site measurements, inventories, and empirical/process-based modeling. However, these estimates are highly uncertain, and identifying major driving forces controlling soil C dynamics remains a key research challenge. This study has compiled century-long (1901-2010) estimates of SOC storage and heterotrophic respiration (Rh) from 10 terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) in the Multi-scale Synthesis and Terrestrial Model Intercomparison Project and two observation-based data sets. The 10 TBM ensemble shows that global SOC estimate ranges from 425 to 2111 Pg C (1 Pg = 10 15  g) with a median value of 1158 Pg C in 2010. The models estimate a broad range of Rh from 35 to 69 Pg C yr -1 with a median value of 51 Pg C yr -1 during 2001-2010. The largest uncertainty in SOC stocks exists in the 40-65°N latitude whereas the largest cross-model divergence in Rh are in the tropics. The modeled SOC change during 1901-2010 ranges from -70 Pg C to 86 Pg C, but in some models the SOC change has a different sign from the change of total C stock, implying very different contribution of vegetation and soil pools in determining the terrestrial C budget among models. The model ensemble-estimated mean residence time of SOC shows a reduction of 3.4 years over the past century, which accelerate C cycling through the land biosphere. All the models agreed that climate and land use changes decreased SOC stocks, while elevated atmospheric CO 2 and nitrogen deposition over intact ecosystems increased SOC stocks-even though the responses varied

  5. Global patterns and controls of soil organic carbon dynamics as simulated by multiple terrestrial biosphere models: Current status and future directions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tian, Hanqin; Lu, Chaoqun; Yang, Jia; Banger, Kamaljit; Huntzinger, Deborah N.; Schwalm, Christopher R.; Michalak, Anna M.; Cook, Robert; Ciais, Philippe; Hayes, Daniel; Huang, Maoyi; Ito, Akihiko; Jain, Atul K.; Lei, Huimin; Mao, Jiafu; Pan, Shufen; Post, Wilfred M.; Peng, Shushi; Poulter, Benjamin; Ren, Wei; Ricciuto, Daniel; Schaefer, Kevin; Shi, Xiaoying; Tao, Bo; Wang, Weile; Wei, Yaxing; Yang, Qichun; Zhang, Bowen; Zeng, Ning

    2015-06-01

    Soil is the largest organic carbon (C) pool of terrestrial ecosystems, and C loss from soil accounts for a large proportion of land-atmosphere C exchange. Therefore, a small change in soil organic C (SOC) can affect atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration and climate change. In the past decades, a wide variety of studies have been conducted to quantify global SOC stocks and soil C exchange with the atmosphere through site measurements, inventories, and empirical/process-based modeling. However, these estimates are highly uncertain, and identifying major driving forces controlling soil C dynamics remains a key research challenge. This study has compiled century-long (1901-2010) estimates of SOC storage and heterotrophic respiration (Rh) from 10 terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) in the Multi-scale Synthesis and Terrestrial Model Intercomparison Project and two observation-based data sets. The 10 TBM ensemble shows that global SOC estimate ranges from 425 to 2111 Pg C (1 Pg = 1015 g) with a median value of 1158 Pg C in 2010. The models estimate a broad range of Rh from 35 to 69 Pg C yr-1 with a median value of 51 Pg C yr-1 during 2001-2010. The largest uncertainty in SOC stocks exists in the 40-65°N latitude whereas the largest cross-model divergence in Rh are in the tropics. The modeled SOC change during 1901-2010 ranges from -70 Pg C to 86 Pg C, but in some models the SOC change has a different sign from the change of total C stock, implying very different contribution of vegetation and soil pools in determining the terrestrial C budget among models. The model ensemble-estimated mean residence time of SOC shows a reduction of 3.4 years over the past century, which accelerate C cycling through the land biosphere. All the models agreed that climate and land use changes decreased SOC stocks, while elevated atmospheric CO2 and nitrogen deposition over intact ecosystems increased SOC stocks—even though the responses varied significantly among models. Model

  6. Source term modelling parameters for Project-90

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shaw, W.; Smith, G.; Worgan, K.; Hodgkinson, D.; Andersson, K.

    1992-04-01

    This document summarises the input parameters for the source term modelling within Project-90. In the first place, the parameters relate to the CALIBRE near-field code which was developed for the Swedish Nuclear Power Inspectorate's (SKI) Project-90 reference repository safety assessment exercise. An attempt has been made to give best estimate values and, where appropriate, a range which is related to variations around base cases. It should be noted that the data sets contain amendments to those considered by KBS-3. In particular, a completely new set of inventory data has been incorporated. The information given here does not constitute a complete set of parameter values for all parts of the CALIBRE code. Rather, it gives the key parameter values which are used in the constituent models within CALIBRE and the associated studies. For example, the inventory data acts as an input to the calculation of the oxidant production rates, which influence the generation of a redox front. The same data is also an initial value data set for the radionuclide migration component of CALIBRE. Similarly, the geometrical parameters of the near-field are common to both sub-models. The principal common parameters are gathered here for ease of reference and avoidance of unnecessary duplication and transcription errors. (au)

  7. Linking Metabolism, Elemental Cycles, and Environmental Conditions in the Deep Biosphere: Growth of a Model Extremophile, Archaeoglobus fulgidus, Under High-Pressure Conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oliver, G. C. M.; Cario, A.; Rogers, K. L.

    2015-12-01

    A majority of Earth's biosphere is hosted in subsurface environments where global-scale biogeochemical and energy cycles are driven by diverse microbial communities that operate on and are influenced by micro-scale environmental variables. While the subsurface hosts a variety of geochemical and geothermal conditions, elevated pressures are common to all subsurface ecosystems. Understanding how microbes adapt to and thrive in high-pressure environments is essential to linking microbial subsurface processes with global-scale cycles. Here we are using a model extremophile, Archaeoglobus fulgidus, to determine how elevated pressures affect the growth, metabolism, and physiology of subsurface microorganisms. A. fulgidus cycles carbon and sulfur via heterotrophic and autotrophic sulfate reduction in various high temperature and high-pressure niches including shallow marine vents, deep-sea hydrothermal vents, and deep oil reservoirs. Here we report the results of A. fulgidus growth experiments at optimum temperature, 83°C, and pressures up to 600 bars. Exponential growth was observed over the entire pressure range, though growth rates were diminished at 500 and 600 bars compared to ambient pressure experimental controls. At pressures up to 400 bars, cell density yields and growth rates were at least as high as ambient pressure controls. Elevated pressures and extended incubation times stimulated cell flocculation, a common stress response in this strain, and cellular morphology was affected at pressures exceeding 400 bars. These results suggest that A. fulgidus continues carbon, sulfur and energy cycling unaffected by elevated pressures up to 400 bars, representing a variety of subsurface environments. The ability of subsurface organisms to drive biogeochemical cycles at elevated pressures is a critical link between the surface and subsurface biospheres and understanding how species-scale processes operate under these conditions is a vital part of global

  8. The interactions between soil-biosphere-atmosphere land surface model with a multi-energy balance (ISBA-MEB) option in SURFEXv8 - Part 1: Model description

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boone, Aaron; Samuelsson, Patrick; Gollvik, Stefan; Napoly, Adrien; Jarlan, Lionel; Brun, Eric; Decharme, Bertrand

    2017-02-01

    Land surface models (LSMs) are pushing towards improved realism owing to an increasing number of observations at the local scale, constantly improving satellite data sets and the associated methodologies to best exploit such data, improved computing resources, and in response to the user community. As a part of the trend in LSM development, there have been ongoing efforts to improve the representation of the land surface processes in the interactions between the soil-biosphere-atmosphere (ISBA) LSM within the EXternalized SURFace (SURFEX) model platform. The force-restore approach in ISBA has been replaced in recent years by multi-layer explicit physically based options for sub-surface heat transfer, soil hydrological processes, and the composite snowpack. The representation of vegetation processes in SURFEX has also become much more sophisticated in recent years, including photosynthesis and respiration and biochemical processes. It became clear that the conceptual limits of the composite soil-vegetation scheme within ISBA had been reached and there was a need to explicitly separate the canopy vegetation from the soil surface. In response to this issue, a collaboration began in 2008 between the high-resolution limited area model (HIRLAM) consortium and Météo-France with the intention to develop an explicit representation of the vegetation in ISBA under the SURFEX platform. A new parameterization has been developed called the ISBA multi-energy balance (MEB) in order to address these issues. ISBA-MEB consists in a fully implicit numerical coupling between a multi-layer physically based snowpack model, a variable-layer soil scheme, an explicit litter layer, a bulk vegetation scheme, and the atmosphere. It also includes a feature that permits a coupling transition of the snowpack from the canopy air to the free atmosphere. It shares many of the routines and physics parameterizations with the standard version of ISBA. This paper is the first of two parts; in part one

  9. Advances in Modelling, System Identification and Parameter ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    models determined from flight test data by using parameter estimation methods find extensive use in design/modification of flight control systems, high fidelity flight simulators and evaluation of handling qualitites of aircraft and rotorcraft. R K Mehra et al present new algorithms and results for flutter tests and adaptive notching ...

  10. A lumped parameter model of plasma focus

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gonzalez, Jose H.; Florido, Pablo C.; Bruzzone, H.; Clausse, Alejandro

    1999-01-01

    A lumped parameter model to estimate neutron emission of a plasma focus (PF) device is developed. The dynamic of the current sheet is calculated using a snowplow model, and the neutron production with the thermal fusion cross section for a deuterium filling gas. The results were contrasted as a function of the filling pressure with experimental measurements of a 3.68 KJ Mather-type PF. (author)

  11. One parameter model potential for noble metals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Idrees, M.; Khwaja, F.A.; Razmi, M.S.K.

    1981-08-01

    A phenomenological one parameter model potential which includes s-d hybridization and core-core exchange contributions is proposed for noble metals. A number of interesting properties like liquid metal resistivities, band gaps, thermoelectric powers and ion-ion interaction potentials are calculated for Cu, Ag and Au. The results obtained are in better agreement with experiment than the ones predicted by the other model potentials in the literature. (author)

  12. Parameter optimization for surface flux transport models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whitbread, T.; Yeates, A. R.; Muñoz-Jaramillo, A.; Petrie, G. J. D.

    2017-11-01

    Accurate prediction of solar activity calls for precise calibration of solar cycle models. Consequently we aim to find optimal parameters for models which describe the physical processes on the solar surface, which in turn act as proxies for what occurs in the interior and provide source terms for coronal models. We use a genetic algorithm to optimize surface flux transport models using National Solar Observatory (NSO) magnetogram data for Solar Cycle 23. This is applied to both a 1D model that inserts new magnetic flux in the form of idealized bipolar magnetic regions, and also to a 2D model that assimilates specific shapes of real active regions. The genetic algorithm searches for parameter sets (meridional flow speed and profile, supergranular diffusivity, initial magnetic field, and radial decay time) that produce the best fit between observed and simulated butterfly diagrams, weighted by a latitude-dependent error structure which reflects uncertainty in observations. Due to the easily adaptable nature of the 2D model, the optimization process is repeated for Cycles 21, 22, and 24 in order to analyse cycle-to-cycle variation of the optimal solution. We find that the ranges and optimal solutions for the various regimes are in reasonable agreement with results from the literature, both theoretical and observational. The optimal meridional flow profiles for each regime are almost entirely within observational bounds determined by magnetic feature tracking, with the 2D model being able to accommodate the mean observed profile more successfully. Differences between models appear to be important in deciding values for the diffusive and decay terms. In like fashion, differences in the behaviours of different solar cycles lead to contrasts in parameters defining the meridional flow and initial field strength.

  13. The Legacy of Biosphere 2 for Biospherics and Closed Ecological System Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allen, J.; Alling, A.; Nelson, M.

    The unprecedented challenges of creating Biosphere 2, the world's first laboratory for biospherics, the study of global ecology and long-term closed ecological system dynamics led to breakthrough developments in many fields, and a deeper understanding of the opportunities and difficulties of material closure. This paper will review these accomplishments and challenges, citing some of the key research accomplishments and publications which have resulted from the experiments in Biosphere 2. Engineering accomplishments included development of a technique for variable volume to deal with pressure differences between the facility and outside environment, developing methods of leak detection and sealing, and achieving new standards of closure, with an annual atmospheric leakrate of less than 10%, or less than 300 ppm per day. This degree of closure permitted detailed tracking of carbon dioxide, oxygen, and trace gases such as nitrous oxide and ethylene over the seasonal variability of two years. Full closure also necessitated developing new approaches and technologies for complete air, water, and wastewater recycle and reuse within the facility. The development of a soil-based highly productive agricultural system was a first in closed ecological systems, and much was learned about managing a wide variety of crops using non-chemical means of pest and disease control. Closed ecological systems have different temporal b ogeochemical cycling and ranges ofi atmospheric components because of their smaller reservoirs of air, water and soil, and higher concentration of biomass, and Biosphere 2 provided detailed examination and modeling of these accelerated cycles over a period of closure which measured in years. Medical research inside Biosphere 2 included the effects on humans of lowered oxygen: the discovery that human productivity can be maintained down to 15% oxygen could lead to major economies on the design of space stations and planetary/lunar settlements. The improved

  14. Analisis Perbandingan Parameter Transformasi Antar Itrf Hasil Hitungan Kuadrat Terkecil Model Helmert 14-parameter Dengan Parameter Standar Iers

    OpenAIRE

    Fadly, Romi; Dewi, Citra

    2014-01-01

    This research aims to compare the 14 transformation parameters between ITRF from computation result using the Helmert 14-parameter models with IERS standard parameters. The transforma- tion parameters are calculated from the coordinates and velocities of ITRF05 to ITRF00 epoch 2000.00, and from ITRF08 to ITRF05 epoch 2005.00 for respectively transformation models. The transformation parameters are compared to the IERS standard parameters, then tested the signifi- cance of the d...

  15. Waste Disposal: Processes Taking Place (on the way) from the Repository to the Biosphere

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Put, M.

    2000-01-01

    The main objective of SCK-CEN's R and D programme on the processes taking place on the way from the repository to the biosphere is to provide reliable and defensible models and parameters on the migration of dissolved radionuclides and gases through the host formation (Boom Clay) and the backfill materials of a deep geological repository for high level radioactive waste. The programme and main achievements in this topical area in 1999 are summarised

  16. Biosphere 2: The True Story.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Keeffe, Michael

    1992-01-01

    Discusses the history and current developments of the Biosphere 2 Project, a prototype for enclosed self-sustaining structures for space colonization built in the Arizona Desert. Biosphere 2 was created to educate and provide solutions to environmental problems and revenue from research. (MCO)

  17. A Regional-Scale Groundwater Model Supporting Management of the Sian Ka'an Biosphere Reserve and its Catchment, Quintana Roo, Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neuman, B. R.; Merediz Alonso, G.; Rebolledo Vieyra, M.; Marin, L.; Supper, R.; Bauer-Gottwein, P.

    2007-05-01

    The Caribbean Coast of the Yucatan Peninsula is a rapidly developing area featuring a booming tourism industry. The number of hotel rooms in the Riviera Maya has increased from 2600 in 1996 to 26,000 in 2005, while the total population in the Mexican federal state of Quintana Roo has grown from 500,000 in 1990 to 1,115,000 in 2005. This explosive growth threatens the region's water resources, which primarily consist of a less than 50m thick freshwater lens residing in the regional karst aquifer underlying the entire Yucatan Peninsula. The Sian Ka'an Biosphere Reserve, a 6400 km2 combined marine/terrestrial nature protection area is situated south of Tulum (approx. 87.3° - 88° W, 19° - 20° N). The site is listed as a UNESCO world heritage site and is protected under the Ramsar Convention. It includes extensive freshwater wetlands, saline/brackish mangrove swamps, tropical rainforests and parts of the world's second largest coral reef. The freshwater supply to the system occurs primarily via subsurface inflow. Large freshwater springs emerge through vertical sinkholes (cenotes) in the lagoons of Sian Ka'an. Management of this unique ecosystem in view of the rapid development and urbanization of the surrounding areas requires detailed knowledge on the groundwater flow paths in and around the reserve. Moreover, mapping and delineation of its groundwater catchment zone and groundwater traveling time zones is essential. To this end, a regional-scale steady-state groundwater flow model of the Sian Ka'an Biosphere reserve and its catchment was developed. The model is implemented in MIKE SHE with a finite-difference cell size of 1 km2 and is driven with temporally averaged climate forcings. The karst aquifer is treated as an equivalent porous medium. Darcy's law is assumed to be valid over regional scales and the main structural elements of the karst aquifer are included in the model as zones of varying hydraulic conductivity. High conductivity zones in the Sian Ka

  18. Constant-parameter capture-recapture models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brownie, C.; Hines, J.E.; Nichols, J.D.

    1986-01-01

    Jolly (1982, Biometrics 38, 301-321) presented modifications of the Jolly-Seber model for capture-recapture data, which assume constant survival and/or capture rates. Where appropriate, because of the reduced number of parameters, these models lead to more efficient estimators than the Jolly-Seber model. The tests to compare models given by Jolly do not make complete use of the data, and we present here the appropriate modifications, and also indicate how to carry out goodness-of-fit tests which utilize individual capture history information. We also describe analogous models for the case where young and adult animals are tagged. The availability of computer programs to perform the analysis is noted, and examples are given using output from these programs.

  19. Natural releases from contaminated groundwater, Example Reference Biosphere 2B

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Simon, I.; Naito, M.; Thorne, M.C.; Walke, R.

    2005-01-01

    Safety assessment is a tool which, by means of an iterative procedure, allows the evaluation of the performance of a disposal system and its potential impact on human health and the environment. Radionuclides from a deep geological disposal facility may not reach the surface environment until many tens of thousands of years after closure of the facility. The BIOMASS Programme on BIOsphere Modelling and ASSessment developed Examples of 'Reference Biospheres' to illustrate the use of the methodology and to demonstrate how biosphere models can be developed and justified as being fit for purpose. The practical examples are also intended to be useful in their own right. The Example Reference Biosphere 2B presented here involves the consideration of alternative types of geosphere-biosphere interfaces and calculation of doses to members of hypothetical exposure groups arising from a wide range of exposure pathways within agricultural and semi-natural environments, but without allowing for evolution of the corresponding biosphere system. The example presented can be used as a generic analysis in some situations although it was developed around a relatively specific conceptual model. It should be a useful practical example, but the above numerical results are not intended to be understood as prescribed biosphere 'conversion factors'

  20. Aqueous Electrolytes: Model Parameters and Process Simulation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thomsen, Kaj

    This thesis deals with aqueous electrolyte mixtures. The Extended UNIQUAC model is being used to describe the excess Gibbs energy of such solutions. Extended UNIQUAC parameters for the twelve ions Na+, K+, NH4+, H+, Cl-, NO3-, SO42-, HSO4-, OH-, CO32-, HCO3-, and S2O82- are estimated. A computer ...... program including a steady state process simulator for the design, simulation, and optimization of fractional crystallization processes is presented.......This thesis deals with aqueous electrolyte mixtures. The Extended UNIQUAC model is being used to describe the excess Gibbs energy of such solutions. Extended UNIQUAC parameters for the twelve ions Na+, K+, NH4+, H+, Cl-, NO3-, SO42-, HSO4-, OH-, CO32-, HCO3-, and S2O82- are estimated. A computer...

  1. Dose assessment considering evolution of the biosphere

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Karlsson, Sara; Bergstroem, Ulla

    2002-01-01

    Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management AB (SKB) is presently updating the safety assessment for SFR (Final repository for radioactive operational waste) in Sweden. The bio-spheric part of the analysis is performed by Studsvik Eco and Safety AB. According to the regulations the safety of the repository has to be accounted for different possible courses of the development of the biosphere. A number of studies have been carried out during the past years to investigate and document the biosphere in the area surrounding the repository. Modelling of shore-level displacement by land uplift, coastal water exchange and sedimentation have provided data for prediction of the evolution of the area. The prediction is done without considering a future change in climatic conditions. The results from this study show that accumulation of radionuclides in sediments is an important process to simulate when performing dose assessments covering biosphere evolution. The dose calculated for the first years of the period with agricultural use of the contaminated sediments may be severely underestimated in a scenario with large accumulation in coastal and lake stages. (LN)

  2. A comparative radiological assessment of five European biosphere systems in the context of potential contamination of well water from the hypothetical disposal of radioactive waste

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Olyslaegers, G; Zeevaert, T; Pinedo, P; Simon, I; Proehl, G; Kowe, R; Chen, Q; Mobbs, S; Bergstroem, U; Hallberg, B; Katona, T; Eged, K; Kanyar, B

    2005-01-01

    In the framework of the BioMoSA project for the development of biosphere assessment models for radioactive waste disposal the Reference Biosphere Methodology developed in the IAEA programme BIOMASS was applied to five locations, situated in different European countries. Specific biosphere models were applied to assess the hypothetical contamination of a range of agricultural and environmental pathways and the dose to individuals, following contamination of well water. The results of these site-specific models developed by the different BioMoSA partners, and the individual normalised dose to the exposure groups were compared against each other. Ingestion of drinking water, fruit and vegetables were found to be among the most important pathways for almost all radionuclides. Stochastic calculations revealed that consumption habits, transfer factors, irrigation rates and distribution coefficients (Kd s ) were the most important parameters that influence the end results. Variations in the confidence intervals were found to be higher for sorbing elements (e.g. 36 Cl, 237 Np, 99 Tc, 238 U, 129 I) than for mobile elements (e.g. 226 Ra, 79 Se, 135 Cs, 231 Pa, 239 Pu). The influence of daughter products, for which the distribution into the biosphere was calculated individually, was also shown to be important. This paper gives a brief overview of the deterministic and stochastic modelling results and the parameter sensitivity. A screening methodology was introduced to identify the most important pathways, simplify a generic biosphere tool and refine the existing models

  3. Evolution of Earth-like Extrasolar Planetary Atmospheres: Assessing the Atmospheres and Biospheres of Early Earth Analog Planets with a Coupled Atmosphere Biogeochemical Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gebauer, S; Grenfell, J L; Stock, J W; Lehmann, R; Godolt, M; von Paris, P; Rauer, H

    2017-01-01

    Understanding the evolution of Earth and potentially habitable Earth-like worlds is essential to fathom our origin in the Universe. The search for Earth-like planets in the habitable zone and investigation of their atmospheres with climate and photochemical models is a central focus in exoplanetary science. Taking the evolution of Earth as a reference for Earth-like planets, a central scientific goal is to understand what the interactions were between atmosphere, geology, and biology on early Earth. The Great Oxidation Event in Earth's history was certainly caused by their interplay, but the origin and controlling processes of this occurrence are not well understood, the study of which will require interdisciplinary, coupled models. In this work, we present results from our newly developed Coupled Atmosphere Biogeochemistry model in which atmospheric O 2 concentrations are fixed to values inferred by geological evidence. Applying a unique tool (Pathway Analysis Program), ours is the first quantitative analysis of catalytic cycles that governed O 2 in early Earth's atmosphere near the Great Oxidation Event. Complicated oxidation pathways play a key role in destroying O 2 , whereas in the upper atmosphere, most O 2 is formed abiotically via CO 2 photolysis. The O 2 bistability found by Goldblatt et al. ( 2006 ) is not observed in our calculations likely due to our detailed CH 4 oxidation scheme. We calculate increased CH 4 with increasing O 2 during the Great Oxidation Event. For a given atmospheric surface flux, different atmospheric states are possible; however, the net primary productivity of the biosphere that produces O 2 is unique. Mixing, CH 4 fluxes, ocean solubility, and mantle/crust properties strongly affect net primary productivity and surface O 2 fluxes. Regarding exoplanets, different "states" of O 2 could exist for similar biomass output. Strong geological activity could lead to false negatives for life (since our analysis suggests that reducing gases

  4. Modelling tourists arrival using time varying parameter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suciptawati, P.; Sukarsa, K. G.; Kencana, Eka N.

    2017-06-01

    The importance of tourism and its related sectors to support economic development and poverty reduction in many countries increase researchers’ attentions to study and model tourists’ arrival. This work is aimed to demonstrate time varying parameter (TVP) technique to model the arrival of Korean’s tourists to Bali. The number of Korean tourists whom visiting Bali for period January 2010 to December 2015 were used to model the number of Korean’s tourists to Bali (KOR) as dependent variable. The predictors are the exchange rate of Won to IDR (WON), the inflation rate in Korea (INFKR), and the inflation rate in Indonesia (INFID). Observing tourists visit to Bali tend to fluctuate by their nationality, then the model was built by applying TVP and its parameters were approximated using Kalman Filter algorithm. The results showed all of predictor variables (WON, INFKR, INFID) significantly affect KOR. For in-sample and out-of-sample forecast with ARIMA’s forecasted values for the predictors, TVP model gave mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) as much as 11.24 percent and 12.86 percent, respectively.

  5. Interim report on reference biospheres for radioactive waste disposal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dorp, F. van

    1994-10-01

    Primary criteria for repository safety are commonly expressed in terms of risk or dose, and a biosphere model is required to evaluate the corresponding assessment endpoints. Even when other indicators are used to express the safety goals, a biosphere model is still needed in order to justify those indicators. In safety or performance assessments of a repository, the uncertainties in space and time for the different components of the repository system have to be considered. For the biosphere component, prediction of future human habits, in particular, is extremely uncertain. This is especially important in the assessment of deep geological disposal, which involves very long timescales, particularly for wastes containing very long lived radionuclides. Thus, the results of biosphere modelling should not be seen as predictions, but as illustrations of the consequences that may occur, should the postulated release occur today or under other conditions implied by the underlying biosphere model assumptions. Differences in biosphere modelling approaches arise because of differences in regulations, the nature of the wastes to be disposed of, disposal site characteristics, disposal concepts and purposes of the assessment. Differences in treatment of uncertainties can also arise. For example, if doses or risks are anticipated to be far below regulatory limits, assessments may be based upon simplified and, necessarily, conservative biosphere models. At present biosphere models used to assess radioactive waste disposal show significant differences in the features, events and processes (FEPs) included or excluded. In general, the reasons for these differences have not been well documented or explained. Developments in radioecology have implications for biosphere modelling for radioactive waste disposal. In particular, after the Chernobyl accident, radioecological research has been significantly increased. Results of this research are already having and will continue to have a

  6. Lumped Parameters Model of a Crescent Pump

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Massimo Rundo

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the lumped parameters model of an internal gear crescent pump with relief valve, able to estimate the steady-state flow-pressure characteristic and the pressure ripple. The approach is based on the identification of three variable control volumes regardless of the number of gear teeth. The model has been implemented in the commercial environment LMS Amesim with the development of customized components. Specific attention has been paid to the leakage passageways, some of them affected by the deformation of the cover plate under the action of the delivery pressure. The paper reports the finite element method analysis of the cover for the evaluation of the deflection and the validation through a contactless displacement transducer. Another aspect described in this study is represented by the computational fluid dynamics analysis of the relief valve, whose results have been used for tuning the lumped parameters model. Finally, the validation of the entire model of the pump is presented in terms of steady-state flow rate and of pressure oscillations.

  7. Decadal trends in the seasonal-cycle amplitude of terrestrial CO2 exchange resulting from the ensemble of terrestrial biosphere models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Akihiko Ito

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available The seasonal-cycle amplitude (SCA of the atmosphere–ecosystem carbon dioxide (CO2 exchange rate is a useful metric of the responsiveness of the terrestrial biosphere to environmental variations. It is unclear, however, what underlying mechanisms are responsible for the observed increasing trend of SCA in atmospheric CO2 concentration. Using output data from the Multi-scale Terrestrial Model Intercomparison Project (MsTMIP, we investigated how well the SCA of atmosphere–ecosystem CO2 exchange was simulated with 15 contemporary terrestrial ecosystem models during the period 1901–2010. Also, we made attempt to evaluate the contributions of potential mechanisms such as atmospheric CO2, climate, land-use, and nitrogen deposition, through factorial experiments using different combinations of forcing data. Under contemporary conditions, the simulated global-scale SCA of the cumulative net ecosystem carbon flux of most models was comparable in magnitude with the SCA of atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Results from factorial simulation experiments showed that elevated atmospheric CO2 exerted a strong influence on the seasonality amplification. When the model considered not only climate change but also land-use and atmospheric CO2 changes, the majority of the models showed amplification trends of the SCAs of photosynthesis, respiration, and net ecosystem production (+0.19 % to +0.50 % yr−1. In the case of land-use change, it was difficult to separate the contribution of agricultural management to SCA because of inadequacies in both the data and models. The simulated amplification of SCA was approximately consistent with the observational evidence of the SCA in atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Large inter-model differences remained, however, in the simulated global tendencies and spatial patterns of CO2 exchanges. Further studies are required to identify a consistent explanation for the simulated and observed amplification trends, including their

  8. Biosphere reserves: Attributes for success.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Cuong, Chu; Dart, Peter; Hockings, Marc

    2017-03-01

    Biosphere reserves established under the UNESCO Man and the Biosphere Program aim to harmonise biodiversity conservation and sustainable development. Concerns over the extent to which the reserve network was living up to this ideal led to the development of a new strategy in 1995 (the Seville Strategy) to enhance the operation of the network of reserves. An evaluation of effectiveness of management of the biosphere reserve network was called for as part of this strategy. Expert opinion was assembled through a Delphi Process to identify successful and less successful reserves and investigate common factors influencing success or failure. Ninety biosphere reserves including sixty successful and thirty less successful reserves in 42 countries across all five Man and the Biosphere Program regions were identified. Most successful sites are the post-Seville generation while the majority of unsuccessful sites are pre-Seville that are managed as national parks and have not been amended to conform to the characteristics that are meant to define a biosphere reserve. Stakeholder participation and collaboration, governance, finance and resources, management, and awareness and communication are the most influential factors in the success or failure of the biosphere reserves. For success, the biosphere reserve concept needs to be clearly understood and applied through landscape zoning. Designated reserves then need a management system with inclusive good governance, strong participation and collaboration, adequate finance and human resource allocation and stable and responsible management and implementation. All rather obvious but it is difficult to achieve without commitment to the biosphere reserve concept by the governance authorities. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Modeling of Parameters of Subcritical Assembly SAD

    CERN Document Server

    Petrochenkov, S; Puzynin, I

    2005-01-01

    The accepted conceptual design of the experimental Subcritical Assembly in Dubna (SAD) is based on the MOX core with a nominal unit capacity of 25 kW (thermal). This corresponds to the multiplication coefficient $k_{\\rm eff} =0.95$ and accelerator beam power 1 kW. A subcritical assembly driven with the existing 660 MeV proton accelerator at the Joint Institute for Nuclear Research has been modelled in order to make choice of the optimal parameters for the future experiments. The Monte Carlo method was used to simulate neutron spectra, energy deposition and doses calculations. Some of the calculation results are presented in the paper.

  10. Parameter estimation in fractional diffusion models

    CERN Document Server

    Kubilius, Kęstutis; Ralchenko, Kostiantyn

    2017-01-01

    This book is devoted to parameter estimation in diffusion models involving fractional Brownian motion and related processes. For many years now, standard Brownian motion has been (and still remains) a popular model of randomness used to investigate processes in the natural sciences, financial markets, and the economy. The substantial limitation in the use of stochastic diffusion models with Brownian motion is due to the fact that the motion has independent increments, and, therefore, the random noise it generates is “white,” i.e., uncorrelated. However, many processes in the natural sciences, computer networks and financial markets have long-term or short-term dependences, i.e., the correlations of random noise in these processes are non-zero, and slowly or rapidly decrease with time. In particular, models of financial markets demonstrate various kinds of memory and usually this memory is modeled by fractional Brownian diffusion. Therefore, the book constructs diffusion models with memory and provides s...

  11. Post-closure performance assessment treatment of the biosphere

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Broderick, M.A.; Egan, M.J.; Thorne, M.C.; Williams, J.A.

    1996-01-01

    The Nirex strategy for radioactive waste disposal is based on a system of engineered and natural barriers, providing long-term isolation of the waste from those parts of the environment that are in contact with or readily available for use by humans (i.e. the biosphere). Even so, there remains the possibility that, on a timescale of thousands to tens of thousands of years, small quantities of poorly-sorbed, long-lived radionuclides may be released from the engineered disposal system, ultimately to emerge into the biosphere. Biosphere models are used in post-closure performance assessments to quantify the competing effects of dilution and accumulation processes on radionuclide concentrations in the accessible environment. Understanding biosphere processes and their time dependence is necessary not only to determine the radiological impact of possible future releases, but also to characterise the dynamics of transport in groundwater and the location, duration and extent of any such releases. Nirex is developing a new biosphere model for use in post-closure radiological assessments for the proposed Sellafield repository. A compartment modelling approach has been adopted, as in studies performed previously, but the system will be dynamic, allowing changes with time in both the properties of compartments and the transfers between compartments. The transport model considers both mass transport within the biosphere and the migration of radionuclides, thereby ensuring that a self-consistent description of the biosphere, in a spatially-extensive domain is maintained. The above approach is designed to link the assessment models used by the Nirex assessment team more closely into the Nirex biosphere research programme than has hitherto been possible with time-invariant assessment models. (author)

  12. Sensitivity study of land biosphere CO2 exchange through an atmospheric tracer transport model using satellite-derived vegetation index data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Knorr, W.; Heimann, M.

    1994-01-01

    We develop a simple, globally uniform model of CO 2 exchange between the atmosphere and the terrestrial biosphere by coupling the model with a three-dimensional atmospheric tracer transport model using observed winds, and checking results against observed concentrations of CO 2 at various monitoring sites. CO 2 fluxes are derived from observed greenness using satellite-derived Global Vegetation Index data, combined with observations of temperature, radiation, and precipitation. We explore a range of CO 2 flux formulations together with some modifications of the modelled atmospheric transport. We find that while some formulations can be excluded, it cannot be decided whether or not to make CO 2 uptake and release dependent on water stress. It appears that the seasonality of net CO 2 fluxes in the tropics, which would be expected to be driven by water availability, is small and is therefore not visible in the seasonal cycle of atmospheric CO 2 . The latter is dominated largely by northern temperate and boreal vegetation, where seasonality is mostly temperature determined. We find some evidence that there is still considerable CO 2 release from soils during northern-hemisphere winter. An exponential air temperature dependence of soil release with a Q 10 of 1.5 is found to be most appropriate, with no cutoff at low freezing temperatures. This result is independent of the year from which observed winds were taken. This is remarkable insofar as year-to-year changes in modelled CO 2 concentrations caused by changes in the wind data clearly outweigh those caused by year-to-year variability in the climate and vegetation index data. (orig.)

  13. The interactions between soil-biosphere-atmosphere (ISBA) land surface model multi-energy balance (MEB) option in SURFEXv8 - Part 2: Introduction of a litter formulation and model evaluation for local-scale forest sites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Napoly, Adrien; Boone, Aaron; Samuelsson, Patrick; Gollvik, Stefan; Martin, Eric; Seferian, Roland; Carrer, Dominique; Decharme, Bertrand; Jarlan, Lionel

    2017-04-01

    Land surface models (LSMs) need to balance a complicated trade-off between computational cost and complexity in order to adequately represent the exchanges of energy, water and matter with the atmosphere and the ocean. Some current generation LSMs use a simplified or composite canopy approach that generates recurrent errors in simulated soil temperature and turbulent fluxes. In response to these issues, a new version of the interactions between soil-biosphere-atmosphere (ISBA) land surface model has recently been developed that explicitly solves the transfer of energy and water from the upper canopy and the forest floor, which is characterized as a litter layer. The multi-energy balance (MEB) version of ISBA is first evaluated for three well-instrumented contrasting local-scale sites, and sensitivity tests are performed to explore the behavior of new model parameters. Second, ISBA-MEB is benchmarked against observations from 42 forested sites from the global micro-meteorological network (FLUXNET) for multiple annual cycles.It is shown that ISBA-MEB outperforms the composite version of ISBA in improving the representation of soil temperature, ground, sensible and, to a lesser extent, latent heat fluxes. Both versions of ISBA give comparable results in terms of simulated latent heat flux because of the similar formulations of the water uptake and the stomatal resistance. However, MEB produces a better agreement with the observations of sensible heat flux than the previous version of ISBA for 87.5 % of the simulated years across the 42 forested FLUXNET sites. Most of this improvement arises owing to the improved simulation of the ground conduction flux, which is greatly improved using MEB, especially owing to the forest litter parameterization. It is also shown that certain processes are also modeled more realistically (such as the partitioning of evapotranspiration into transpiration and ground evaporation), even if certain statistical performances are neutral. The

  14. Safety case for the disposal of spent nuclear fuel at Olkiluoto. Data basis for the Biosphere Assessment BSA-2012. Part 1-2, Appendices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of the report is to document and justify the input data used in the models of the biosphere assessment. Methodology similar to that presented in the Models and Data for the Repository System report has been followed. After more introductory parts, chapter 3 lays the foundation of data selection by describing typical properties of the soil and sediment types and biotopes, and summarises the representative plants and animals selected in the Biosphere Description report. The conceptual models on pools and fluxes of elements in the ecosystems are presented in chapter 4. These, together with the more qualitative descriptions of the succession lines in the Biosphere Description report, are simplified into the actual assessment models (summarised in chapter 5) in an iterative manner. Chapter 6 briefly presents the scenarios and calculation cases of the biosphere assessment, detailed in the Formulation of Radionuclide Releases Scenarios report. The account of the actual input data to the assessment models begins in chapter 7 with the data needed to identify the biotopes and compartments common to all assessment models. Chapters 8 to 13, grouped by the sub-models, address the input data to the terrain and ecosystems development modelling (detailed in the Terrain and Ecosystems Development Modelling report), and chapter 14 those to the surface and near-surface hydrological model (the Surface and Near-Surface Hydrological Modelling report). Chapters 15 to 18 address the data to the radionuclide transport modelling in the biosphere, and chapter 19 those needed for the dose assessment for humans (the Biosphere Radionuclide Transport and Dose Assessment report). Finally, before conclusions in chapter 21, the input data specific to the dose assessment for plants and animals (the Dose Assessment for the Plants and Animals report) are addressed in chapter 20. However, several parameters are common to the assessment models and are presented in connection to the model

  15. Moose models with vanishing S parameter

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Casalbuoni, R.; De Curtis, S.; Dominici, D.

    2004-01-01

    In the linear moose framework, which naturally emerges in deconstruction models, we show that there is a unique solution for the vanishing of the S parameter at the lowest order in the weak interactions. We consider an effective gauge theory based on K SU(2) gauge groups, K+1 chiral fields, and electroweak groups SU(2) L and U(1) Y at the ends of the chain of the moose. S vanishes when a link in the moose chain is cut. As a consequence one has to introduce a dynamical nonlocal field connecting the two ends of the moose. Then the model acquires an additional custodial symmetry which protects this result. We examine also the possibility of a strong suppression of S through an exponential behavior of the link couplings as suggested by the Randall Sundrum metric

  16. Biospheric Changes are Threat Multipliers

    OpenAIRE

    Cairns, John

    2010-01-01

    A threat multiplier is defined as another agent that impacts a current situation, creating an additional set of problems while also making existing problems worse. Sometimes a seemingly innocent change in the biosphere can cause major alterations and become a threat multiplier. Because the biosphere is a highly interactive system, damage to a single component, like the ocean for example, will produce a ripple effect throughout the entire system. In order for humans to eliminate threat multip...

  17. Some viewpoints on reference biospheres in Finnish performance assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rasilainen, K.; Kattilakoski, E.; Suolanen, V.; Vieno, T.; Vuori, S.

    2002-01-01

    Viewpoints are presented concerning biosphere studies in performance assessments of nuclear waste disposal. The points are based on experiences from several Finnish performance assessments. The latest performance assessment for spent fuel disposal, TILA-99, was considered in the Decision in Principle process for the site selection of the repository. The points given are also based on experiences from participation in international projects dealing with biosphere modelling, for instance BIOMOVS and BIOMASS. (author)

  18. European-wide simulations of croplands using an improved terrestrial biosphere model: 2. Interannual yields and anomalous CO2 fluxes in 2003

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, P. C.; Ciais, P.; Peylin, P.; de Noblet-Ducoudré, N.; Viovy, N.; Meurdesoif, Y.; Bondeau, A.

    2010-12-01

    Aiming at producing improved estimates of carbon source/sink spatial and interannual patterns across Europe (35% croplands), this work uses the ORCHIDEE-STICS terrestrial biosphere model including a more realistic representation of croplands, described in part 1 (Smith et al., 2010). Crop yield is derived from annual Net Primary Productivity and compared with wheat and grain maize harvest data for five European countries. Over a 34 year period, the best correlation coefficient obtained between observed and simulated yield time series is for irrigated maize in Italy (R = 0.73). In the data as well as in the model, 1976 and 2003 appear as climate anomalies causing a ≈40% yield drop in the most affected regions. Simulated interannual yield anomalies and the spatial pattern of the yield drop in 2003 are found to be more realistic than the results from ORCHIDEE with no representation of croplands. The simulated 2003 anomalous carbon source from European ecosystems to the atmosphere due to the 2003 summer heat wave is in good agreement with atmospheric inversions (0.20GtC, from May to October). The anomaly is twice too large in the ORCHIDEE alone simulation, owing to the unrealistically high exposure of herbaceous plants to the extreme summer conditions. The mechanisms linking abnormally high summer temperatures, the crop productivity drop, and significant carbon source from European ecosystems in 2003 are discussed. Overall, this study highlights the importance of accounting for the specific phenologies of crops sown both in winter and in spring and for irrigation applied to summer crops in regional/global models of the terrestrial carbon cycle.

  19. Spanish methodological approach for biosphere assessment of radioactive waste disposal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Agueero, A.; Pinedo, P.; Cancio, D.; Simon, I.; Moraleda, M.; Perez-Sanchez, D.; Trueba, C.

    2007-01-01

    The development of radioactive waste disposal facilities requires implementation of measures that will afford protection of human health and the environment over a specific temporal frame that depends on the characteristics of the wastes. The repository design is based on a multi-barrier system: (i) the near-field or engineered barrier, (ii) far-field or geological barrier and (iii) the biosphere system. Here, the focus is on the analysis of this last system, the biosphere. A description is provided of conceptual developments, methodological aspects and software tools used to develop the Biosphere Assessment Methodology in the context of high-level waste (HLW) disposal facilities in Spain. This methodology is based on the BIOMASS 'Reference Biospheres Methodology' and provides a logical and systematic approach with supplementary documentation that helps to support the decisions necessary for model development. It follows a five-stage approach, such that a coherent biosphere system description and the corresponding conceptual, mathematical and numerical models can be built. A discussion on the improvements implemented through application of the methodology to case studies in international and national projects is included. Some facets of this methodological approach still require further consideration, principally an enhanced integration of climatology, geography and ecology into models considering evolution of the environment, some aspects of the interface between the geosphere and biosphere, and an accurate quantification of environmental change processes and rates

  20. Models for setting ATM parameter values

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Blaabjerg, Søren; Gravey, A.; Romæuf, L.

    1996-01-01

    presents approximate methods and discusses their applicability. We then discuss the problem of obtaining traffic characteristic values for a connection that has crossed a series of switching nodes. This problem is particularly relevant for the traffic contract components corresponding to ICIs...... (CDV) tolerance(s). The values taken by these traffic parameters characterize the so-called ''Worst Case Traffic'' that is used by CAC procedures for accepting a new connection and allocating resources to it. Conformance to the negotiated traffic characteristics is defined, at the ingress User...... essential to set traffic characteristic values that are relevant to the considered cell stream, and that ensure that the amount of non-conforming traffic is small. Using a queueing model representation for the GCRA formalism, several methods are available for choosing the traffic characteristics. This paper...

  1. Coupled Climate-Economy-Biosphere (CoCEB) model - Part 2: Deforestation control and investment in carbon capture and storage technologies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ogutu, K. B. Z.; D'Andrea, F.; Ghil, M.; Nyandwi, C.; Manene, M. M.; Muthama, J. N.

    2015-04-01

    This study uses the global climate-economy-biosphere (CoCEB) model developed in Part 1 to investigate economic aspects of deforestation control and carbon sequestration in forests, as well as the efficiency of carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies as policy measures for climate change mitigation. We assume - as in Part 1 - that replacement of one technology with another occurs in terms of a logistic law, so that the same law also governs the dynamics of reduction in carbon dioxide emission using CCS technologies. In order to take into account the effect of deforestation control, a slightly more complex description of the carbon cycle than in Part 1 is needed. Consequently, we add a biomass equation into the CoCEB model and analyze the ensuing feedbacks and their effects on per capita gross domestic product (GDP) growth. Integrating biomass into the CoCEB and applying deforestation control as well as CCS technologies has the following results: (i) low investment in CCS contributes to reducing industrial carbon emissions and to increasing GDP, but further investment leads to a smaller reduction in emissions, as well as in the incremental GDP growth; and (ii) enhanced deforestation control contributes to a reduction in both deforestation emissions and in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration, thus reducing the impacts of climate change and contributing to a slight appreciation of GDP growth. This effect is however very small compared to that of low-carbon technologies or CCS. We also find that the result in (i) is very sensitive to the formulation of CCS costs, while to the contrary, the results for deforestation control are less sensitive.

  2. A computer model of the biosphere, to estimate stochastic and non-stochastic effects of radionuclides on humans

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Laurens, J.M.

    1985-01-01

    A computer code was written to model food chains in order to estimate the internal and external doses, for stochastic and non-stochastic effects, on humans (adults and infants). Results are given for 67 radionuclides, for unit concentration in water (1 Bq/L) and in atmosphere (1 Bq/m 3 )

  3. A Strategy for Describing the Biosphere at Candidate Sites for Repositories of Nuclear Waste: Linking Ecosystem and Landscape Modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lindborg, Tobias; Loefgren, Anders; Soederbaeck, Bjoern; Kautsky, Ulrik; Lindborg, Regina; Bradshaw, Clare

    2006-01-01

    To provide information necessary for a license application for a deep repository for spent nuclear fuel, the Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co. has started site investigations at two sites in Sweden. In this paper, we present a strategy to integrate site-specific ecosystem data into spatially explicit models needed for safety assessment studies and the environmental impact assessment. The site-specific description of ecosystems is developed by building discipline-specific models from primary data and by identifying interactions and stocks and flows of matter among functional units at the sites. The conceptual model is a helpful initial tool for defining properties needed to quantify system processes, which may reveal new interfaces between disciplines, providing a variety of new opportunities to enhance the understanding of the linkages between ecosystem characteristics and the functional properties of landscapes. This type of integrated ecosystem-landscape characterization model has an important role in forming the implementation of a safety assessment for a deep repository

  4. Dengue human infection model performance parameters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Endy, Timothy P

    2014-06-15

    Dengue is a global health problem and of concern to travelers and deploying military personnel with development and licensure of an effective tetravalent dengue vaccine a public health priority. The dengue viruses (DENVs) are mosquito-borne flaviviruses transmitted by infected Aedes mosquitoes. Illness manifests across a clinical spectrum with severe disease characterized by intravascular volume depletion and hemorrhage. DENV illness results from a complex interaction of viral properties and host immune responses. Dengue vaccine development efforts are challenged by immunologic complexity, lack of an adequate animal model of disease, absence of an immune correlate of protection, and only partially informative immunogenicity assays. A dengue human infection model (DHIM) will be an essential tool in developing potential dengue vaccines or antivirals. The potential performance parameters needed for a DHIM to support vaccine or antiviral candidates are discussed. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  5. Dimensionality reduction of RKHS model parameters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taouali, Okba; Elaissi, Ilyes; Messaoud, Hassani

    2015-07-01

    This paper proposes a new method to reduce the parameter number of models developed in the Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Space (RKHS). In fact, this number is equal to the number of observations used in the learning phase which is assumed to be high. The proposed method entitled Reduced Kernel Partial Least Square (RKPLS) consists on approximating the retained latent components determined using the Kernel Partial Least Square (KPLS) method by their closest observation vectors. The paper proposes the design and the comparative study of the proposed RKPLS method and the Support Vector Machines on Regression (SVR) technique. The proposed method is applied to identify a nonlinear Process Trainer PT326 which is a physical process available in our laboratory. Moreover as a thermal process with large time response may help record easily effective observations which contribute to model identification. Compared to the SVR technique, the results from the proposed RKPLS method are satisfactory. Copyright © 2015 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Modelling regulating ecosystem services trade-offs across landscape scenarios in Trebonsko Wetlands Biosphere Reserve, Czech Republic

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Harmáčková, Veronika Zuzana; Vačkář, David

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 295, SI (2015), s. 207-215 ISSN 0304-3800 R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) ED1.1.00/02.0073; GA TA ČR TD010026 Institutional support: RVO:67179843 Keywords : climate regulation * water quality regulation * InVEST models * decision support * social-ecological systems Subject RIV: DO - Wilderness Conservation Impact factor: 2.275, year: 2015

  7. Monitoring Hydrological Patterns of Temporary Lakes Using Remote Sensing and Machine Learning Models: Case Study of La Mancha Húmeda Biosphere Reserve in Central Spain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carolina Doña

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available The Biosphere Reserve of La Mancha Húmeda is a wetland-rich area located in central Spain. This reserve comprises a set of temporary lakes, often saline, where water level fluctuates seasonally. Water inflows come mainly from direct precipitation and runoff of small lake watersheds. Most of these lakes lack surface outlets and behave as endorheic systems, where water withdrawal is mainly due to evaporation, causing salt accumulation in the lake beds. Remote sensing was used to estimate the temporal variation of the flooded area in these lakes and their associated hydrological patterns related to the seasonality of precipitation and evapotranspiration. Landsat 7 ETM+ satellite images for the reference period 2013–2015 were jointly used with ground-truth datasets. Several inverse modeling methods, such as two-band and multispectral indices, single-band threshold, classification methods, artificial neural network, support vector machine and genetic programming, were applied to retrieve information on the variation of the flooded areas. Results were compared to ground-truth data, and the classification errors were evaluated by means of the kappa coefficient. Comparative analyses demonstrated that the genetic programming approach yielded the best results, with a kappa value of 0.98 and a total error of omission-commission of 2%. The dependence of the variations in the water-covered area on precipitation and evaporation was also investigated. The results show the potential of the tested techniques to monitor the hydrological patterns of temporary lakes in semiarid areas, which might be useful for management strategy-linked lake conservation and specifically to accomplish the goals of both the European Water Framework Directive and the Habitats Directive.

  8. Assimilating solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence into the terrestrial biosphere model BETHY-SCOPE v1.0: model description and information content

    Science.gov (United States)

    Norton, Alexander J.; Rayner, Peter J.; Koffi, Ernest N.; Scholze, Marko

    2018-04-01

    The synthesis of model and observational information using data assimilation can improve our understanding of the terrestrial carbon cycle, a key component of the Earth's climate-carbon system. Here we provide a data assimilation framework for combining observations of solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) and a process-based model to improve estimates of terrestrial carbon uptake or gross primary production (GPP). We then quantify and assess the constraint SIF provides on the uncertainty in global GPP through model process parameters in an error propagation study. By incorporating 1 year of SIF observations from the GOSAT satellite, we find that the parametric uncertainty in global annual GPP is reduced by 73 % from ±19.0 to ±5.2 Pg C yr-1. This improvement is achieved through strong constraint of leaf growth processes and weak to moderate constraint of physiological parameters. We also find that the inclusion of uncertainty in shortwave down-radiation forcing has a net-zero effect on uncertainty in GPP when incorporated into the SIF assimilation framework. This study demonstrates the powerful capacity of SIF to reduce uncertainties in process-based model estimates of GPP and the potential for improving our predictive capability of this uncertain carbon flux.

  9. Gene expression in the deep biosphere.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orsi, William D; Edgcomb, Virginia P; Christman, Glenn D; Biddle, Jennifer F

    2013-07-11

    Scientific ocean drilling has revealed a deep biosphere of widespread microbial life in sub-seafloor sediment. Microbial metabolism in the marine subsurface probably has an important role in global biogeochemical cycles, but deep biosphere activities are not well understood. Here we describe and analyse the first sub-seafloor metatranscriptomes from anaerobic Peru Margin sediment up to 159 metres below the sea floor, represented by over 1 billion complementary DNA (cDNA) sequence reads. Anaerobic metabolism of amino acids, carbohydrates and lipids seem to be the dominant metabolic processes, and profiles of dissimilatory sulfite reductase (dsr) transcripts are consistent with pore-water sulphate concentration profiles. Moreover, transcripts involved in cell division increase as a function of microbial cell concentration, indicating that increases in sub-seafloor microbial abundance are a function of cell division across all three domains of life. These data support calculations and models of sub-seafloor microbial metabolism and represent the first holistic picture of deep biosphere activities.

  10. Tree Throw, Soil Production, and Disturbance Ecology: A Model Illustrating a Coupling Between the Geosphere and the Biosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gabet, E. J.; Mudd, S. M.

    2009-05-01

    The question of the acoustic impact of a falling tree is best left to the philosophers. However, geologists know that when a tree falls over, it displaces significant quantities of soil and if the tree is anchored into bedrock, large clasts may be ripped out of the ground. Indeed, tree throw may be the dominant agent of physical weathering in forests and likely leads to high rates of soil production. Because this process is dependent on tree density and because stand density, itself, is dependent on soil thickness, a coupled system materializes between bedrock erosion, soil production, and forest development. This system is explored with a numerical model that provides some interesting results. 1) A humped relationship between soil depth and soil production emerges naturally from this coupled system. 2) The soil production rate on a bedrock surface decreases with the size of the bedrock surface. 3) Soil is not produced uniformally across a hillslope but forms in patches that then spread out. In addition, other examples will be given to answer the question "What is Biogeoscience?" The role of vegetative ash in accelerating post-fire erosion rates will described as well as the role of biotic crusts in armoring soils against wind erosion.

  11. Forecasting carbon budget under climate change and CO2 fertilization for subtropical region in China using integrated biosphere simulator (IBIS) model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Q.; Jiang, H.; Liu, J.; Peng, C.; Fang, X.; Yu, S.; Zhou, G.; Wei, X.; Ju, W.

    2011-01-01

    The regional carbon budget of the climatic transition zone may be very sensitive to climate change and increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations. This study simulated the carbon cycles under these changes using process-based ecosystem models. The Integrated Biosphere Simulator (IBIS), a Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (DGVM), was used to evaluate the impacts of climate change and CO2 fertilization on net primary production (NPP), net ecosystem production (NEP), and the vegetation structure of terrestrial ecosystems in Zhejiang province (area 101,800 km2, mainly covered by subtropical evergreen forest and warm-temperate evergreen broadleaf forest) which is located in the subtropical climate area of China. Two general circulation models (HADCM3 and CGCM3) representing four IPCC climate change scenarios (HC3AA, HC3GG, CGCM-sresa2, and CGCM-sresb1) were used as climate inputs for IBIS. Results show that simulated historical biomass and NPP are consistent with field and other modelled data, which makes the analysis of future carbon budget reliable. The results indicate that NPP over the entire Zhejiang province was about 55 Mt C yr-1 during the last half of the 21st century. An NPP increase of about 24 Mt C by the end of the 21st century was estimated with the combined effects of increasing CO2 and climate change. A slight NPP increase of about 5 Mt C was estimated under the climate change alone scenario. Forests in Zhejiang are currently acting as a carbon sink with an average NEP of about 2.5 Mt C yr-1. NEP will increase to about 5 Mt C yr-1 by the end of the 21st century with the increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration and climate change. However, climate change alone will reduce the forest carbon sequestration of Zhejiang's forests. Future climate warming will substantially change the vegetation cover types; warm-temperate evergreen broadleaf forest will be gradually substituted by subtropical evergreen forest. An increasing CO2 concentration will have little

  12. Clustering reveals limits of parameter identifiability in multi-parameter models of biochemical dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nienałtowski, Karol; Włodarczyk, Michał; Lipniacki, Tomasz; Komorowski, Michał

    2015-09-29

    Compared to engineering or physics problems, dynamical models in quantitative biology typically depend on a relatively large number of parameters. Progress in developing mathematics to manipulate such multi-parameter models and so enable their efficient interplay with experiments has been slow. Existing solutions are significantly limited by model size. In order to simplify analysis of multi-parameter models a method for clustering of model parameters is proposed. It is based on a derived statistically meaningful measure of similarity between groups of parameters. The measure quantifies to what extend changes in values of some parameters can be compensated by changes in values of other parameters. The proposed methodology provides a natural mathematical language to precisely communicate and visualise effects resulting from compensatory changes in values of parameters. As a results, a relevant insight into identifiability analysis and experimental planning can be obtained. Analysis of NF-κB and MAPK pathway models shows that highly compensative parameters constitute clusters consistent with the network topology. The method applied to examine an exceptionally rich set of published experiments on the NF-κB dynamics reveals that the experiments jointly ensure identifiability of only 60% of model parameters. The method indicates which further experiments should be performed in order to increase the number of identifiable parameters. We currently lack methods that simplify broadly understood analysis of multi-parameter models. The introduced tools depict mutually compensative effects between parameters to provide insight regarding role of individual parameters, identifiability and experimental design. The method can also find applications in related methodological areas of model simplification and parameters estimation.

  13. Summary of the IAEA's BIOMASS reference biosphere methodology for Environment Agency staff

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coughtrey, P.

    2001-01-01

    The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) programme on BIOsphere Modelling and ASSessment (BIOMASS) was launched in October 1996, and will complete during 2001. The BIOMASS programme aimed to develop and apply a methodology for defining biospheres for practical radiological assessment of releases from radioactive waste disposal. This report provides a summary description of the BIOMASS methodology. The BIOMASS methodology has been developed through international collaboration and represents a major milestone in biosphere modelling. It provides an approach supported by a wide range of developers, regulators, biosphere experts and safety assessment specialists. The Environment Agency participated actively in the BIOMASS programme

  14. Sample Size and Item Parameter Estimation Precision When Utilizing the One-Parameter "Rasch" Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Custer, Michael

    2015-01-01

    This study examines the relationship between sample size and item parameter estimation precision when utilizing the one-parameter model. Item parameter estimates are examined relative to "true" values by evaluating the decline in root mean squared deviation (RMSD) and the number of outliers as sample size increases. This occurs across…

  15. What impact does ionising radiation have on humans and the environment? Use of SCK-CEN biosphere models in international studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vandenhove, H.

    2011-01-01

    Certain nuclear activities may have an impact on man and the environment. To understand the precise magnitude of the effect, one must first understand the distribution and behaviour of radioactive substances in the environment. This knowledge is also necessary in order to take appropriate measures to reduce radiation exposure. analysing the environmental effects of MYRRHA and of waste disposal facilities are just some of the applications of SCK-CEN biosphere impact studies.

  16. Models for estimating photosynthesis parameters from in situ production profiles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kovač, Žarko; Platt, Trevor; Sathyendranath, Shubha; Antunović, Suzana

    2017-12-01

    The rate of carbon assimilation in phytoplankton primary production models is mathematically prescribed with photosynthesis irradiance functions, which convert a light flux (energy) into a material flux (carbon). Information on this rate is contained in photosynthesis parameters: the initial slope and the assimilation number. The exactness of parameter values is crucial for precise calculation of primary production. Here we use a model of the daily production profile based on a suite of photosynthesis irradiance functions and extract photosynthesis parameters from in situ measured daily production profiles at the Hawaii Ocean Time-series station Aloha. For each function we recover parameter values, establish parameter distributions and quantify model skill. We observe that the choice of the photosynthesis irradiance function to estimate the photosynthesis parameters affects the magnitudes of parameter values as recovered from in situ profiles. We also tackle the problem of parameter exchange amongst the models and the effect it has on model performance. All models displayed little or no bias prior to parameter exchange, but significant bias following parameter exchange. The best model performance resulted from using optimal parameter values. Model formulation was extended further by accounting for spectral effects and deriving a spectral analytical solution for the daily production profile. The daily production profile was also formulated with time dependent growing biomass governed by a growth equation. The work on parameter recovery was further extended by exploring how to extract photosynthesis parameters from information on watercolumn production. It was demonstrated how to estimate parameter values based on a linearization of the full analytical solution for normalized watercolumn production and from the solution itself, without linearization. The paper complements previous works on photosynthesis irradiance models by analysing the skill and consistency of

  17. Lignocellulose deconstruction in the biosphere

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bomble, Yannick J.; Lin, Chien-Yuan; Amore, Antonella; Wei, Hui; Holwerda, Evert K.; Ciesielski, Peter N.; Donohoe, Bryon S.; Decker, Stephen R.; Lynd, Lee R.; Himmel, Michael E.

    2017-12-01

    Microorganisms have evolved different and yet complementary mechanisms to degrade biomass in the biosphere. The chemical biology of lignocellulose deconstruction is a complex and intricate process that appears to vary in response to specific ecosystems. These microorganisms rely on simple to complex arrangements of glycoside hydrolases to conduct most of these polysaccharide depolymerization reactions and also, as discovered more recently, oxidative mechanisms via lytic polysaccharide monooxygenases or non-enzymatic Fenton reactions which are used to enhance deconstruction. It is now clear that these deconstruction mechanisms are often more efficient in the presence of the microorganisms. In general, a major fraction of the total plant biomass deconstruction in the biosphere results from the action of various microorganisms, primarily aerobic bacteria and fungi, as well as a variety of anaerobic bacteria. Beyond carbon recycling, specialized microorganisms interact with plants to manage nitrogen in the biosphere. Understanding the interplay between these organisms within or across ecosystems is crucial to further our grasp of chemical recycling in the biosphere and also enables optimization of the burgeoning plant-based bioeconomy.

  18. Lignocellulose deconstruction in the biosphere.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bomble, Yannick J; Lin, Chien-Yuan; Amore, Antonella; Wei, Hui; Holwerda, Evert K; Ciesielski, Peter N; Donohoe, Bryon S; Decker, Stephen R; Lynd, Lee R; Himmel, Michael E

    2017-12-01

    Microorganisms have evolved different and yet complementary mechanisms to degrade biomass in the biosphere. The chemical biology of lignocellulose deconstruction is a complex and intricate process that appears to vary in response to specific ecosystems. These microorganisms rely on simple to complex arrangements of glycoside hydrolases to conduct most of these polysaccharide depolymerization reactions and also, as discovered more recently, oxidative mechanisms via lytic polysaccharide monooxygenases or non-enzymatic Fenton reactions which are used to enhance deconstruction. It is now clear that these deconstruction mechanisms are often more efficient in the presence of the microorganisms. In general, a major fraction of the total plant biomass deconstruction in the biosphere results from the action of various microorganisms, primarily aerobic bacteria and fungi, as well as a variety of anaerobic bacteria. Beyond carbon recycling, specialized microorganisms interact with plants to manage nitrogen in the biosphere. Understanding the interplay between these organisms within or across ecosystems is crucial to further our grasp of chemical recycling in the biosphere and also enables optimization of the burgeoning plant-based bioeconomy. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  19. Monitoring Biospheric Health and Integrity

    OpenAIRE

    Cairns, John

    2010-01-01

    The biosphere serves as the life support system for Earth and also is the basis of the human economy; therefore it should be maintained in optimal condition. In order for this maintenance to occur, a response team must be established to respond with immediate corrective action when quality control conditions are not being met.

  20. LIMITS OF THE EARTH BIOSPHERE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karel KUDRNA

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Evaluation of the state of CO2 accumulation in the atmosphere demands knowledge on possibilities of the biosphere – its photosynthetizing apparatus, conditions and limits of absorption. A decisive precondition is to determine relation of CO2 accumulation by photosynthesis in dependence on the water balance, especially on its control quantity – transpiration, which is stabilized by supporting of underground waters.

  1. Optimizing incomplete sample designs for item response model parameters

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Linden, Willem J.

    Several models for optimizing incomplete sample designs with respect to information on the item parameters are presented. The following cases are considered: (1) known ability parameters; (2) unknown ability parameters; (3) item sets with multiple ability scales; and (4) response models with

  2. Modelling the transfer of radionuclides to fruit. Report of the Fruits Working Group of BIOMASS Theme 3. Part of the IAEA Co-ordinated Research Project on Biosphere Modelling and Assessment (BIOMASS)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2003-07-01

    This report contains a description of the activities carried out by the Fruits Working Group and presents the main results such as conceptual advances, quantitative data and models on the transfer of radionuclides to fruit in the context of the overall objective of BIOMASS Theme 3. The aim of the study was to improve understanding of the processes affecting the migration of radionuclides in the fruit system and to identify the uncertainties associated with modelling the transfer of radionuclides to fruit. The overall objective was to improve the accuracy of risk assessment that should translate to improved health safety for the population and associated cost savings. The significance of fruit, intended as that particular component of the human diet generally consumed as a dessert item, derives from its high economic value, the agricultural area devoted to its cultivation, and its consumption rates. These are important factors for some countries and groups of population. Fruits may become contaminated with radioactive material from nuclear facilities during routine operation, as a consequence of nuclear accidents, or due to migration through the biosphere of radionuclides from radioactive waste disposal facilities. Relevant radionuclides when considering transfer to fruit from atmospheric deposition were identified as 3 H, 14 C, 35 S, 36 Cl, 90 Sr, 129 I, 134 Cs and 137 Cs. The transfer of radionuclides to fruit is complex and involves many interactions between biotic and abiotic components. Edible fruit is borne by different plant species, such as herbaceous plants, shrubs and trees, that can grow under different climatic conditions and may be found in agricultural or natural ecosystems. A review of experimental, field and modelling information on the transfer of radionuclides to fruit was carried out at the inception of the activities of the Group, taking into account results from a Questionnaire circulated to radioecologists. Results on current experimental

  3. Study on Parameters Modeling of Wind Turbines Using SCADA Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yonglong YAN

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Taking the advantage of the current massive monitoring data from Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA system of wind farm, it is of important significance for anomaly detection, early warning and fault diagnosis to build the data model of state parameters of wind turbines (WTs. The operational conditions and the relationships between the state parameters of wind turbines are complex. It is difficult to establish the model of state parameter accurately, and the modeling method of state parameters of wind turbines considering parameter selection is proposed. Firstly, by analyzing the characteristic of SCADA data, a reasonable range of data and monitoring parameters are chosen. Secondly, neural network algorithm is adapted, and the selection method of input parameters in the model is presented. Generator bearing temperature and cooling air temperature are regarded as target parameters, and the two models are built and input parameters of the models are selected, respectively. Finally, the parameter selection method in this paper and the method using genetic algorithm-partial least square (GA-PLS are analyzed comparatively, and the results show that the proposed methods are correct and effective. Furthermore, the modeling of two parameters illustrate that the method in this paper can applied to other state parameters of wind turbines.

  4. Use of the food-chain model FOOD III and the soil model SCEMR to assess irrigation as a biosphere pathway

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sheppard, S.C.

    1985-02-01

    Irrigation of contaminated water onto crop land is a relatively direct pathway for radionuclides to deliver a radiation dose to man. Irrigation was not originally included in the SYVAC assessment model for the Precambrian Shield because no irrigation is currently practised in the region. This report re-evaluates this decision. An analysis of meteorological data shows that crop yield in northern Ontario would benefit from irrigation. Thus, incentives are present for subsistence-scale, and perhaps commercial-scale, irrigation of surface or well water. A food-chain analysis indicated that irrigation with contaminated water could deliver a dose comparable to direct consumption (drinking) of the same water, for some radionuclides. Long-term contamination of soil through irrigation was predicted to be a substantial hazard, even when soil leaching was incorporated into the food-chain model. This report presents parameter estimates that could be used to incorporate irrigation as a pathway in the SYVAC code and will constitute the basis for further decisions concerning this pathway

  5. Parameter and Uncertainty Estimation in Groundwater Modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Jacob Birk

    The data basis on which groundwater models are constructed is in general very incomplete, and this leads to uncertainty in model outcome. Groundwater models form the basis for many, often costly decisions and if these are to be made on solid grounds, the uncertainty attached to model results must...... be quantified. This study was motivated by the need to estimate the uncertainty involved in groundwater models.Chapter 2 presents an integrated surface/subsurface unstructured finite difference model that was developed and applied to a synthetic case study.The following two chapters concern calibration...... was applied.Capture zone modelling was conducted on a synthetic stationary 3-dimensional flow problem involving river, surface and groundwater flow. Simulated capture zones were illustrated as likelihood maps and compared with a deterministic capture zones derived from a reference model. The results showed...

  6. WINKLER'S SINGLE-PARAMETER SUBGRADE MODEL FROM ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Preferred Customer

    SUBGRADE MODELING. Asrat Worku. Department of ... The models give consistently larger stiffness for the Winkler springs as compared to previously proposed similar continuum-based models that ignore the lateral stresses. ...... (ν = 0.25 and E = 40MPa); (b) a medium stiff clay (ν = 0.45 and E = 50MPa). In contrast to this, ...

  7. Biosphere analyses for the safety assessment SR-Site - synthesis and summary of results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saetre, Peter

    2010-12-01

    This report summarises nearly 20 biosphere reports and gives a synthesis of the work performed within the SR-Site Biosphere project, i.e. the biosphere part of SR-Site. SR-Site Biosphere provides the main project with dose conversion factors (LDFs), given a unit release rate, for calculation of human doses under different release scenarios, and assesses if a potential release from the repository would have detrimental effects on the environment. The intention of this report is to give sufficient details for an overview of methods, results and major conclusions, with references to the biosphere reports where methods, data and results are presented and discussed in detail. The philosophy of the biosphere assessment was to make estimations of the radiological risk for humans and the environment as realistic as possible, based on the knowledge of present-day conditions at Forsmark and the past and expected future development of the site. This was achieved by using the best available knowledge, understanding and data from extensive site investigations from two sites. When sufficient information was not available, uncertainties were handled cautiously. A systematic identification and evaluation of features and processes that affect transport and accumulation of radionuclides at the site was conducted, and the results were summarised in an interaction matrix. Data and understanding from the site investigation was an integral part of this work, the interaction matrix underpinned the development of the radionuclide model used in the biosphere assessment. Understanding of the marine, lake and river and terrestrial ecosystems at the site was summarized in a conceptual model, and relevant features and process have been characterized to capture site specific parameter values. Detailed investigations of the structure and history of the regolith at the site and simulations of regolith dynamics were used to describe the present day state at Forsmark and the expected development of

  8. The biosphere at Aberg, Beberg and Ceberg - a description based on literature concerning climate, physical geography, ecology, land use and environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lindborg, T.; Schueldt, R.

    1998-12-01

    The current safety analysis, SR 97, compares three sites in Sweden. This report compares the biosphere for the three areas, Aespoe, Finnsjoen and Gideaa, which have been studied to describe the conditions at three hypothetical sites, Aberg, Beberg and Ceberg. Data from these sites will be used in analysis and to make realistic models of the biosphere development. The report is based on a literature study considering climate, physical geography, vegetation, ecology, land use, environment and population. Data from each site is presented separately and is compared for present conditions and from a future perspective. The locations of the sites along the south-north gradient influences the climate, temperature, vegetation period and precipitation. Aberg has a more humid climate with a longer vegetation period, a higher mean temperature, a higher diversity and a faster turn-over time than Beberg and Ceberg. There is also a difference in land use, where Beberg has the greatest potential for agriculture, because of the soil types and topography. Abergs location in the archipelago makes it very exposed to shore level displacement, compared to Beberg and Ceberg with a higher elevation. The highest population density is found in Aberg, but Beberg has the highest potential for increase. Simplified models made from present and future biosphere conditions, show that the sites have different prerequisite concerning biosphere factors. The parameters that may affect the ecosystem and the biosphere over time are more likely to change in Aberg due to position above sea level, climate, sea level displacement and land use. Biosphere changes are however in a long time perspective hard to predict. The models used in this report are a suggestion on how to evaluate biological data in a more thorough study

  9. The biosphere at Aberg, Beberg and Ceberg - a description based on literature concerning climate, physical geography, ecology, land use and environment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lindborg, T.; Schueldt, R. [NaturRaadet, (Sweden)

    1998-12-01

    The current safety analysis, SR 97, compares three sites in Sweden. This report compares the biosphere for the three areas, Aespoe, Finnsjoen and Gideaa, which have been studied to describe the conditions at three hypothetical sites, Aberg, Beberg and Ceberg. Data from these sites will be used in analysis and to make realistic models of the biosphere development. The report is based on a literature study considering climate, physical geography, vegetation, ecology, land use, environment and population. Data from each site is presented separately and is compared for present conditions and from a future perspective. The locations of the sites along the south-north gradient influences the climate, temperature, vegetation period and precipitation. Aberg has a more humid climate with a longer vegetation period, a higher mean temperature, a higher diversity and a faster turn-over time than Beberg and Ceberg. There is also a difference in land use, where Beberg has the greatest potential for agriculture, because of the soil types and topography. Abergs location in the archipelago makes it very exposed to shore level displacement, compared to Beberg and Ceberg with a higher elevation. The highest population density is found in Aberg, but Beberg has the highest potential for increase. Simplified models made from present and future biosphere conditions, show that the sites have different prerequisite concerning biosphere factors. The parameters that may affect the ecosystem and the biosphere over time are more likely to change in Aberg due to position above sea level, climate, sea level displacement and land use. Biosphere changes are however in a long time perspective hard to predict. The models used in this report are a suggestion on how to evaluate biological data in a more thorough study. 99 refs, 14 figs, 31 tabs

  10. Identifying the connective strength between model parameters and performance criteria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Guse

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available In hydrological models, parameters are used to represent the time-invariant characteristics of catchments and to capture different aspects of hydrological response. Hence, model parameters need to be identified based on their role in controlling the hydrological behaviour. For the identification of meaningful parameter values, multiple and complementary performance criteria are used that compare modelled and measured discharge time series. The reliability of the identification of hydrologically meaningful model parameter values depends on how distinctly a model parameter can be assigned to one of the performance criteria. To investigate this, we introduce the new concept of connective strength between model parameters and performance criteria. The connective strength assesses the intensity in the interrelationship between model parameters and performance criteria in a bijective way. In our analysis of connective strength, model simulations are carried out based on a latin hypercube sampling. Ten performance criteria including Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE, Kling–Gupta efficiency (KGE and its three components (alpha, beta and r as well as RSR (the ratio of the root mean square error to the standard deviation for different segments of the flow duration curve (FDC are calculated. With a joint analysis of two regression tree (RT approaches, we derive how a model parameter is connected to different performance criteria. At first, RTs are constructed using each performance criterion as the target variable to detect the most relevant model parameters for each performance criterion. Secondly, RTs are constructed using each parameter as the target variable to detect which performance criteria are impacted by changes in the values of one distinct model parameter. Based on this, appropriate performance criteria are identified for each model parameter. In this study, a high bijective connective strength between model parameters and performance criteria

  11. Parameter optimisation for a better representation of drought by LSMs: inverse modelling vs. sequential data assimilation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dewaele, Hélène; Munier, Simon; Albergel, Clément; Planque, Carole; Laanaia, Nabil; Carrer, Dominique; Calvet, Jean-Christophe

    2017-09-01

    Soil maximum available water content (MaxAWC) is a key parameter in land surface models (LSMs). However, being difficult to measure, this parameter is usually uncertain. This study assesses the feasibility of using a 15-year (1999-2013) time series of satellite-derived low-resolution observations of leaf area index (LAI) to estimate MaxAWC for rainfed croplands over France. LAI interannual variability is simulated using the CO2-responsive version of the Interactions between Soil, Biosphere and Atmosphere (ISBA) LSM for various values of MaxAWC. Optimal value is then selected by using (1) a simple inverse modelling technique, comparing simulated and observed LAI and (2) a more complex method consisting in integrating observed LAI in ISBA through a land data assimilation system (LDAS) and minimising LAI analysis increments. The evaluation of the MaxAWC estimates from both methods is done using simulated annual maximum above-ground biomass (Bag) and straw cereal grain yield (GY) values from the Agreste French agricultural statistics portal, for 45 administrative units presenting a high proportion of straw cereals. Significant correlations (p value Bag and GY are found for up to 36 and 53 % of the administrative units for the inverse modelling and LDAS tuning methods, respectively. It is found that the LDAS tuning experiment gives more realistic values of MaxAWC and maximum Bag than the inverse modelling experiment. Using undisaggregated LAI observations leads to an underestimation of MaxAWC and maximum Bag in both experiments. Median annual maximum values of disaggregated LAI observations are found to correlate very well with MaxAWC.

  12. Summary of the DREAM8 Parameter Estimation Challenge: Toward Parameter Identification for Whole-Cell Models.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jonathan R Karr

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Whole-cell models that explicitly represent all cellular components at the molecular level have the potential to predict phenotype from genotype. However, even for simple bacteria, whole-cell models will contain thousands of parameters, many of which are poorly characterized or unknown. New algorithms are needed to estimate these parameters and enable researchers to build increasingly comprehensive models. We organized the Dialogue for Reverse Engineering Assessments and Methods (DREAM 8 Whole-Cell Parameter Estimation Challenge to develop new parameter estimation algorithms for whole-cell models. We asked participants to identify a subset of parameters of a whole-cell model given the model's structure and in silico "experimental" data. Here we describe the challenge, the best performing methods, and new insights into the identifiability of whole-cell models. We also describe several valuable lessons we learned toward improving future challenges. Going forward, we believe that collaborative efforts supported by inexpensive cloud computing have the potential to solve whole-cell model parameter estimation.

  13. World campaign for the biosphere

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Worthington, E.B.

    1982-07-01

    Four aims are included in the Draft Declaration about the Champaign for The Biosphere; 1) education and allied activities, 2) scientific understanding, 3) practical activities, and 4) accommodation of humanity to The Biosphere. There is a strong case for application to practical affairs of what is already known. The campaign might focus initially on problems that illustrate changing attitudes which are the result of research and experience. Examples include the Green revolution in agriculture and, in engineering, the swing of changing attitudes to the primary and ancillary effects of large projects for hydro-power and irrigation. The need for conservation of natural resources by rational, ecologically wise use is stressed. Educational and medical programs for planned parenthood are already available. The problem will be to boost them to top priority in the countries that need them most. (JMT)

  14. Estimation of Kinetic Parameters in an Automotive SCR Catalyst Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Åberg, Andreas; Widd, Anders; Abildskov, Jens

    2016-01-01

    A challenge during the development of models for simulation of the automotive Selective Catalytic Reduction catalyst is the parameter estimation of the kinetic parameters, which can be time consuming and problematic. The parameter estimation is often carried out on small-scale reactor tests...

  15. Dumb Growth and the Biosphere

    OpenAIRE

    Cairns, John

    2011-01-01

    Dumb growth is defined as any growth that is unsustainable on a finite planet. Growth in population and consumption of finite resources are not sustainable practices and have already damaged the biospheric life support system in a way that is difficult to eradicate. In fact, all eight interactive global crises (human economy, climate change, exponential human population growth, ecological overshoot, biotic impoverishment and reduction of biodiversity, renewable resources depletion, energy al...

  16. Edge Modeling by Two Blur Parameters in Varying Contrasts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seo, Suyoung

    2018-06-01

    This paper presents a method of modeling edge profiles with two blur parameters, and estimating and predicting those edge parameters with varying brightness combinations and camera-to-object distances (COD). First, the validity of the edge model is proven mathematically. Then, it is proven experimentally with edges from a set of images captured for specifically designed target sheets and with edges from natural images. Estimation of the two blur parameters for each observed edge profile is performed with a brute-force method to find parameters that produce global minimum errors. Then, using the estimated blur parameters, actual blur parameters of edges with arbitrary brightness combinations are predicted using a surface interpolation method (i.e., kriging). The predicted surfaces show that the two blur parameters of the proposed edge model depend on both dark-side edge brightness and light-side edge brightness following a certain global trend. This is similar across varying CODs. The proposed edge model is compared with a one-blur parameter edge model using experiments of the root mean squared error for fitting the edge models to each observed edge profile. The comparison results suggest that the proposed edge model has superiority over the one-blur parameter edge model in most cases where edges have varying brightness combinations.

  17. Estimation of Parameters in Latent Class Models with Constraints on the Parameters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paulson, James A.

    This paper reviews the application of the EM Algorithm to marginal maximum likelihood estimation of parameters in the latent class model and extends the algorithm to the case where there are monotone homogeneity constraints on the item parameters. It is shown that the EM algorithm can be used to obtain marginal maximum likelihood estimates of the…

  18. Community Assembly Processes of the Microbial Rare Biosphere.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jia, Xiu; Dini-Andreote, Francisco; Falcão Salles, Joana

    2018-03-14

    Our planet teems with microorganisms that often present a skewed abundance distribution in a local community, with relatively few dominant species coexisting alongside a high number of rare species. Recent studies have demonstrated that these rare taxa serve as limitless reservoirs of genetic diversity, and perform disproportionate types of functions despite their low abundances. However, relatively little is known about the mechanisms controlling rarity and the processes promoting the development of the rare biosphere. Here, we propose the use of multivariate cut-offs to estimate rare species and phylogenetic null models applied to predefined rare taxa to disentangle the relative influences of ecoevolutionary processes mediating the assembly of the rare biosphere. Importantly, the identification of the factors controlling rare species assemblages is critical for understanding the types of rarity, how the rare biosphere is established, and how rare microorganisms fluctuate over spatiotemporal scales, thus enabling prospective predictions of ecosystem responses. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. The biosphere today and tomorrow in the SFR area

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kautsky, Ulrik

    2001-06-01

    This report is a compilation of the work done mainly in the SAFE project for the biosphere from about 14 reports. The SAFE project is the updated safety analysis of SFR-1, the LLW and ILW repository at Forsmark. The aim of the report is to summarize the available information about the present-day biosphere in the area surrounding SFR and to use this information, together with information about the previous development of the biosphere, to predict the future development of the area in a more comparable way than the underlying reports. The data actually used for the models have been taken from the original reports which also justify or validate the data. The report compiles information about climate, oceanography, landscape, sedimentation, shoreline displacement, marine, lake and terrestrial ecosystems

  20. The biosphere today and tomorrow in the SFR area

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kautsky, Ulrik (ed.)

    2001-06-01

    This report is a compilation of the work done mainly in the SAFE project for the biosphere from about 14 reports. The SAFE project is the updated safety analysis of SFR-1, the LLW and ILW repository at Forsmark. The aim of the report is to summarize the available information about the present-day biosphere in the area surrounding SFR and to use this information, together with information about the previous development of the biosphere, to predict the future development of the area in a more comparable way than the underlying reports. The data actually used for the models have been taken from the original reports which also justify or validate the data. The report compiles information about climate, oceanography, landscape, sedimentation, shoreline displacement, marine, lake and terrestrial ecosystems.

  1. Reference biospheres for the long term safety assessment of radioactive waste disposal facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Crossland, I.G.; Torres, C.

    2002-01-01

    Regulatory guidance on the safety assessment of radioactive waste disposals usually requires the consequences of any radionuclide releases to be considered in terms of their potential impact on human health. This requires consideration of the prevailing biosphere and the habits of the potentially exposed humans within it. However, it could take many thousands of years for migrating radionuclides to reach the surface environment. In these circumstances, an assessment model that was based on the present-day biosphere could be inappropriate while future biospheres would be unpredictable. These and other considerations suggest that a standardised, or reference biosphere, approach may be useful. Theme 1 of the IAEA BIOMASS project was established to develop the concept of reference biospheres into a practical system that can be applied to the assessment of the long term safety of geological disposal facilities for radioactive waste. The technical phase of the project lasted for four years until November 2000 and brought together disparate interests from many countries including waste disposal agencies, regulators and technical experts. Building on the experience from earlier BIOMOVS projects, a methodology was constructed for the logical and defensible construction of mathematical biosphere models that can be used in the total system performance assessment of radioactive waste disposal. The methodology was then further developed through the creation of a series of BIOMASS Example Reference Biospheres ('Examples'). These are stylised biosphere models that, in addition to illustrating the methodology, are intended to be useful assessment tools in their own right. (author)

  2. Incremental parameter estimation of kinetic metabolic network models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jia Gengjie

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background An efficient and reliable parameter estimation method is essential for the creation of biological models using ordinary differential equation (ODE. Most of the existing estimation methods involve finding the global minimum of data fitting residuals over the entire parameter space simultaneously. Unfortunately, the associated computational requirement often becomes prohibitively high due to the large number of parameters and the lack of complete parameter identifiability (i.e. not all parameters can be uniquely identified. Results In this work, an incremental approach was applied to the parameter estimation of ODE models from concentration time profiles. Particularly, the method was developed to address a commonly encountered circumstance in the modeling of metabolic networks, where the number of metabolic fluxes (reaction rates exceeds that of metabolites (chemical species. Here, the minimization of model residuals was performed over a subset of the parameter space that is associated with the degrees of freedom in the dynamic flux estimation from the concentration time-slopes. The efficacy of this method was demonstrated using two generalized mass action (GMA models, where the method significantly outperformed single-step estimations. In addition, an extension of the estimation method to handle missing data is also presented. Conclusions The proposed incremental estimation method is able to tackle the issue on the lack of complete parameter identifiability and to significantly reduce the computational efforts in estimating model parameters, which will facilitate kinetic modeling of genome-scale cellular metabolism in the future.

  3. The Geosphere - Biosphere international program and the global change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chanin, M.L.

    1991-01-01

    The objective of the Geosphere-Biosphere International Program (GBIP) is to achieve a correct approach of the various biogeochemical interactions between the different components of the environment (oceans, atmosphere, biosphere). The main themes are: study of the chemical regulation in the global atmosphere and influence of natural and anthropogenic processes on trace element cycles; influence of the oceanic biogeochemical processes on climates and their response to climatic changes; influence of soil utilization modification (especially coastal) on climates and ecosystems; interaction between vegetation and the water cycle; interaction between climatic changes, ecosystems and agricultural productivity; approaches to climate modelling. French component of the GBIP is presented [fr

  4. An approach to adjustment of relativistic mean field model parameters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bayram Tuncay

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The Relativistic Mean Field (RMF model with a small number of adjusted parameters is powerful tool for correct predictions of various ground-state nuclear properties of nuclei. Its success for describing nuclear properties of nuclei is directly related with adjustment of its parameters by using experimental data. In the present study, the Artificial Neural Network (ANN method which mimics brain functionality has been employed for improvement of the RMF model parameters. In particular, the understanding capability of the ANN method for relations between the RMF model parameters and their predictions for binding energies (BEs of 58Ni and 208Pb have been found in agreement with the literature values.

  5. A simulation of water pollution model parameter estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kibler, J. F.

    1976-01-01

    A parameter estimation procedure for a water pollution transport model is elaborated. A two-dimensional instantaneous-release shear-diffusion model serves as representative of a simple transport process. Pollution concentration levels are arrived at via modeling of a remote-sensing system. The remote-sensed data are simulated by adding Gaussian noise to the concentration level values generated via the transport model. Model parameters are estimated from the simulated data using a least-squares batch processor. Resolution, sensor array size, and number and location of sensor readings can be found from the accuracies of the parameter estimates.

  6. Lumped parameter models for the interpretation of environmental tracer data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maloszewski, P.; Zuber, A.

    1996-01-01

    Principles of the lumped-parameter approach to the interpretation of environmental tracer data are given. The following models are considered: the piston flow model (PFM), exponential flow model (EM), linear model (LM), combined piston flow and exponential flow model (EPM), combined linear flow and piston flow model (LPM), and dispersion model (DM). The applicability of these models for the interpretation of different tracer data is discussed for a steady state flow approximation. Case studies are given to exemplify the applicability of the lumped-parameter approach. Description of a user-friendly computer program is given. (author). 68 refs, 25 figs, 4 tabs

  7. A test for the parameters of multiple linear regression models ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A test for the parameters of multiple linear regression models is developed for conducting tests simultaneously on all the parameters of multiple linear regression models. The test is robust relative to the assumptions of homogeneity of variances and absence of serial correlation of the classical F-test. Under certain null and ...

  8. WATGIS: A GIS-Based Lumped Parameter Water Quality Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glenn P. Fernandez; George M. Chescheir; R. Wayne Skaggs; Devendra M. Amatya

    2002-01-01

    A Geographic Information System (GIS)­based, lumped parameter water quality model was developed to estimate the spatial and temporal nitrogen­loading patterns for lower coastal plain watersheds in eastern North Carolina. The model uses a spatially distributed delivery ratio (DR) parameter to account for nitrogen retention or loss along a drainage network. Delivery...

  9. Exploring the interdependencies between parameters in a material model.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Silling, Stewart Andrew; Fermen-Coker, Muge

    2014-01-01

    A method is investigated to reduce the number of numerical parameters in a material model for a solid. The basis of the method is to detect interdependencies between parameters within a class of materials of interest. The method is demonstrated for a set of material property data for iron and steel using the Johnson-Cook plasticity model.

  10. Regionalization of SWAT Model Parameters for Use in Ungauged Watersheds

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Indrajeet Chaubey

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available There has been a steady shift towards modeling and model-based approaches as primary methods of assessing watershed response to hydrologic inputs and land management, and of quantifying watershed-wide best management practice (BMP effectiveness. Watershed models often require some degree of calibration and validation to achieve adequate watershed and therefore BMP representation. This is, however, only possible for gauged watersheds. There are many watersheds for which there are very little or no monitoring data available, thus the question as to whether it would be possible to extend and/or generalize model parameters obtained through calibration of gauged watersheds to ungauged watersheds within the same region. This study explored the possibility of developing regionalized model parameter sets for use in ungauged watersheds. The study evaluated two regionalization methods: global averaging, and regression-based parameters, on the SWAT model using data from priority watersheds in Arkansas. Resulting parameters were tested and model performance determined on three gauged watersheds. Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies (NS for stream flow obtained using regression-based parameters (0.53–0.83 compared well with corresponding values obtained through model calibration (0.45–0.90. Model performance obtained using global averaged parameter values was also generally acceptable (0.4 ≤ NS ≤ 0.75. Results from this study indicate that regionalized parameter sets for the SWAT model can be obtained and used for making satisfactory hydrologic response predictions in ungauged watersheds.

  11. Bayesian estimation of parameters in a regional hydrological model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Engeland

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available This study evaluates the applicability of the distributed, process-oriented Ecomag model for prediction of daily streamflow in ungauged basins. The Ecomag model is applied as a regional model to nine catchments in the NOPEX area, using Bayesian statistics to estimate the posterior distribution of the model parameters conditioned on the observed streamflow. The distribution is calculated by Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC analysis. The Bayesian method requires formulation of a likelihood function for the parameters and three alternative formulations are used. The first is a subjectively chosen objective function that describes the goodness of fit between the simulated and observed streamflow, as defined in the GLUE framework. The second and third formulations are more statistically correct likelihood models that describe the simulation errors. The full statistical likelihood model describes the simulation errors as an AR(1 process, whereas the simple model excludes the auto-regressive part. The statistical parameters depend on the catchments and the hydrological processes and the statistical and the hydrological parameters are estimated simultaneously. The results show that the simple likelihood model gives the most robust parameter estimates. The simulation error may be explained to a large extent by the catchment characteristics and climatic conditions, so it is possible to transfer knowledge about them to ungauged catchments. The statistical models for the simulation errors indicate that structural errors in the model are more important than parameter uncertainties. Keywords: regional hydrological model, model uncertainty, Bayesian analysis, Markov Chain Monte Carlo analysis

  12. Brownian motion model with stochastic parameters for asset prices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ching, Soo Huei; Hin, Pooi Ah

    2013-09-01

    The Brownian motion model may not be a completely realistic model for asset prices because in real asset prices the drift μ and volatility σ may change over time. Presently we consider a model in which the parameter x = (μ,σ) is such that its value x (t + Δt) at a short time Δt ahead of the present time t depends on the value of the asset price at time t + Δt as well as the present parameter value x(t) and m-1 other parameter values before time t via a conditional distribution. The Malaysian stock prices are used to compare the performance of the Brownian motion model with fixed parameter with that of the model with stochastic parameter.

  13. Estimation of shape model parameters for 3D surfaces

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Erbou, Søren Gylling Hemmingsen; Darkner, Sune; Fripp, Jurgen

    2008-01-01

    is applied to a database of 3D surfaces from a section of the porcine pelvic bone extracted from 33 CT scans. A leave-one-out validation shows that the parameters of the first 3 modes of the shape model can be predicted with a mean difference within [-0.01,0.02] from the true mean, with a standard deviation......Statistical shape models are widely used as a compact way of representing shape variation. Fitting a shape model to unseen data enables characterizing the data in terms of the model parameters. In this paper a Gauss-Newton optimization scheme is proposed to estimate shape model parameters of 3D...... surfaces using distance maps, which enables the estimation of model parameters without the requirement of point correspondence. For applications with acquisition limitations such as speed and cost, this formulation enables the fitting of a statistical shape model to arbitrarily sampled data. The method...

  14. Biosphere analyses for the safety assessment SR-Site - synthesis and summary of results

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Saetre, Peter (comp.)

    2010-12-15

    This report summarises nearly 20 biosphere reports and gives a synthesis of the work performed within the SR-Site Biosphere project, i.e. the biosphere part of SR-Site. SR-Site Biosphere provides the main project with dose conversion factors (LDFs), given a unit release rate, for calculation of human doses under different release scenarios, and assesses if a potential release from the repository would have detrimental effects on the environment. The intention of this report is to give sufficient details for an overview of methods, results and major conclusions, with references to the biosphere reports where methods, data and results are presented and discussed in detail. The philosophy of the biosphere assessment was to make estimations of the radiological risk for humans and the environment as realistic as possible, based on the knowledge of present-day conditions at Forsmark and the past and expected future development of the site. This was achieved by using the best available knowledge, understanding and data from extensive site investigations from two sites. When sufficient information was not available, uncertainties were handled cautiously. A systematic identification and evaluation of features and processes that affect transport and accumulation of radionuclides at the site was conducted, and the results were summarised in an interaction matrix. Data and understanding from the site investigation was an integral part of this work, the interaction matrix underpinned the development of the radionuclide model used in the biosphere assessment. Understanding of the marine, lake and river and terrestrial ecosystems at the site was summarized in a conceptual model, and relevant features and process have been characterized to capture site specific parameter values. Detailed investigations of the structure and history of the regolith at the site and simulations of regolith dynamics were used to describe the present day state at Forsmark and the expected development of

  15. Determination of the Corona model parameters with artificial neural networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ahmet, Nayir; Bekir, Karlik; Arif, Hashimov

    2005-01-01

    Full text : The aim of this study is to calculate new model parameters taking into account the corona of electrical transmission line wires. For this purpose, a neural network modeling proposed for the corona frequent characteristics modeling. Then this model was compared with the other model developed at the Polytechnic Institute of Saint Petersburg. The results of development of the specified corona model for calculation of its influence on the wave processes in multi-wires line and determination of its parameters are submitted. Results of obtained calculation equations are brought for electrical transmission line with allowance for superficial effect in the ground and wires with reference to developed corona model

  16. Extended biosphere dataset for safety assessment of radioactive waste geological disposal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kato, Tomoko; Suzuki, Yuji

    2007-01-01

    JAEA has an on-going programme of research and development relating to the safety assessment of the deep geological disposal systems of high-level radioactive waste (HLW) and transuranic waste (TRU). In the safety assessment of HLW and TRU disposal systems, biosphere assessment is necessary to estimate future radiological impacts on human beings (e.g. radiation dose). In order to estimate radiation dose, consideration needs to be given to the biosphere into which future releases of radionuclides might occur and to the associated future human behaviour. The data of some biosphere parameters needed to be updated by appropriate data sources for generic and site-specific biosphere assessment to improve reliability for the biosphere assessment, because some data published in the 1980's or the early 90's were found to be inappropriate for the recent biosphere assessment. Therefore, data of the significant parameters (especially for element-dependent) were set up on the basis of recent information, to update the generic biosphere dataset. (author)

  17. SITE-94. Discrete-feature modelling of the Aespoe Site: 3. Predictions of hydrogeological parameters for performance assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Geier, J.E. [Golder Associates AB, Uppsala (Sweden)

    1996-12-01

    A 3-dimensional, discrete-feature hydrological model is developed. The model integrates structural and hydrologic data for the Aespoe site, on scales ranging from semi regional fracture zones to individual fractures in the vicinity of the nuclear waste canisters. Predicted parameters for the near field include fracture spacing, fracture aperture, and Darcy velocity at each of forty canister deposition holes. Parameters for the far field include discharge location, Darcy velocity, effective longitudinal dispersion coefficient and head gradient, flow porosity, and flow wetted surface, for each canister source that discharges to the biosphere. Results are presented in the form of statistical summaries for a total of 42 calculation cases, which treat a set of 25 model variants in various combinations. The variants for the SITE-94 Reference Case model address conceptual and parametric uncertainty related to the site-scale hydrogeologic model and its properties, the fracture network within the repository, effective semi regional boundary conditions for the model, and the disturbed-rock zone around the repository tunnels and shafts. Two calculation cases simulate hydrologic conditions that are predicted to occur during future glacial episodes. 30 refs.

  18. Spatio-temporal modeling of nonlinear distributed parameter systems

    CERN Document Server

    Li, Han-Xiong

    2011-01-01

    The purpose of this volume is to provide a brief review of the previous work on model reduction and identifi cation of distributed parameter systems (DPS), and develop new spatio-temporal models and their relevant identifi cation approaches. In this book, a systematic overview and classifi cation on the modeling of DPS is presented fi rst, which includes model reduction, parameter estimation and system identifi cation. Next, a class of block-oriented nonlinear systems in traditional lumped parameter systems (LPS) is extended to DPS, which results in the spatio-temporal Wiener and Hammerstein s

  19. Some tests for parameter constancy in cointegrated VAR-models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Henrik; Johansen, Søren

    1999-01-01

    Some methods for the evaluation of parameter constancy in vector autoregressive (VAR) models are discussed. Two different ways of re-estimating the VAR model are proposed; one in which all parameters are estimated recursively based upon the likelihood function for the first observations, and anot...... be applied to test the constancy of the long-run parameters in the cointegrated VAR-model. All results are illustrated using a model for the term structure of interest rates on US Treasury securities. ...

  20. Implementing surface parameter aggregation rules in the CCM3 global climate model: regional responses at the land surface

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. A. Arain

    1999-01-01

    Full Text Available The land-surface parameters required as input to a GCM grid box (typically a few degrees are often set to be those of the dominant vegetation type within the grid box. This paper discusses the use and effect of aggregation rules for specifying effective values of these land cover parameters by taking into account the relative proportion of each land-cover type within each individual grid box. Global land-cover classification data at 1 km resolution were used to define Biosphere Atmosphere Transfer Scheme (BATS specific aggregate (using aggregation rules land-cover parameters. Comparison of the values of the aggregate parameters and those defined using the single dominant vegetation type (default parameters shows significant differences in some regions, particularly in the semi-desert and in forested regions, e.g. the Sahara Desert and the tropical forest of South America. These two different sets of parameters were used as input data for two 10-year simulations of the NCAR CCM3 model coupled to the BATS land-surface scheme. Statistical analyses comparing the results of the two model runs showed that the resulting effects on the land-surface diagnostics are significant only in specific regions. For example, the sensible heat flux in the Sahara Desert calculated for the aggregate parameter run increased due to the marked increase in the minimum stomatal resistance and the decrease in fractional vegetation cover in the aggregate parameters over the default parameters. The modelled global precipitation and surface air temperature fields were compared to observations: there is a general improvement in the performance of the aggregate parameter run over the default parameter run in areas where the differences between the aggregate and default parameter run are significant. However, most of the difference between the modelled and observed fields is attributable to other model deficiencies. It can be concluded that the use of aggregation rules to derive

  1. Determining extreme parameter correlation in ground water models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hill, Mary Cole; Østerby, Ole

    2003-01-01

    In ground water flow system models with hydraulic-head observations but without significant imposed or observed flows, extreme parameter correlation generally exists. As a result, hydraulic conductivity and recharge parameters cannot be uniquely estimated. In complicated problems, such correlation...... correlation coefficients with absolute values that round to 1.00 were good indicators of extreme parameter correlation, but smaller values were not necessarily good indicators of lack of correlation and resulting unique parameter estimates; (2) the SVD may be more difficult to interpret than parameter...

  2. Parameters Estimation of Geographically Weighted Ordinal Logistic Regression (GWOLR) Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zuhdi, Shaifudin; Retno Sari Saputro, Dewi; Widyaningsih, Purnami

    2017-06-01

    A regression model is the representation of relationship between independent variable and dependent variable. The dependent variable has categories used in the logistic regression model to calculate odds on. The logistic regression model for dependent variable has levels in the logistics regression model is ordinal. GWOLR model is an ordinal logistic regression model influenced the geographical location of the observation site. Parameters estimation in the model needed to determine the value of a population based on sample. The purpose of this research is to parameters estimation of GWOLR model using R software. Parameter estimation uses the data amount of dengue fever patients in Semarang City. Observation units used are 144 villages in Semarang City. The results of research get GWOLR model locally for each village and to know probability of number dengue fever patient categories.

  3. Evidence for an active rare biosphere within freshwater protists community.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Debroas, Didier; Hugoni, Mylène; Domaizon, Isabelle

    2015-03-01

    Studies on the active rare biosphere at the RNA level are mainly focused on Bacteria and Archaea and fail to include the protists, which are involved in the main biogeochemical cycles of the earth. In this study, the richness, composition and activity of the rare protistan biosphere were determined from a temporal survey of two lakes by pyrosequencing. In these ecosystems, the always rare OTUs represented 77.2% of the total OTUs and 76.6% of the phylogenetic diversity. From the various phylogenetic indices computed, the phylogenetic units (PUs) constituted exclusively by always rare OTUs were discriminated from the other PUs. Therefore, the rare biosphere included mainly taxa that are distant from the reference databases compared to the dominant ones. In addition, the rarest OTUs represented 59.8% of the active biosphere depicted by rRNA and the activity (rRNA:rDNA ratio) increased with the rarity. The high rRNA:rDNA ratio determined in the rare fraction highlights that some protists were active at low abundances and contribute to ecosystem functioning. Interestingly, the always rare and active OTUs were characterized by seasonal changes in relation with the main environmental parameters measured. In conclusion, the rare eukaryotes represent an active, dynamic and overlooked fraction in the lacustrine ecosystems. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  4. Modeling and Parameter Estimation of a Small Wind Generation System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos A. Ramírez Gómez

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available The modeling and parameter estimation of a small wind generation system is presented in this paper. The system consists of a wind turbine, a permanent magnet synchronous generator, a three phase rectifier, and a direct current load. In order to estimate the parameters wind speed data are registered in a weather station located in the Fraternidad Campus at ITM. Wind speed data were applied to a reference model programed with PSIM software. From that simulation, variables were registered to estimate the parameters. The wind generation system model together with the estimated parameters is an excellent representation of the detailed model, but the estimated model offers a higher flexibility than the programed model in PSIM software.

  5. Parameter estimation of variable-parameter nonlinear Muskingum model using excel solver

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kang, Ling; Zhou, Liwei

    2018-02-01

    Abstract . The Muskingum model is an effective flood routing technology in hydrology and water resources Engineering. With the development of optimization technology, more and more variable-parameter Muskingum models were presented to improve effectiveness of the Muskingum model in recent decades. A variable-parameter nonlinear Muskingum model (NVPNLMM) was proposed in this paper. According to the results of two real and frequently-used case studies by various models, the NVPNLMM could obtain better values of evaluation criteria, which are used to describe the superiority of the estimated outflows and compare the accuracies of flood routing using various models, and the optimal estimated outflows by the NVPNLMM were closer to the observed outflows than the ones by other models.

  6. Do Lumped-Parameter Models Provide the Correct Geometrical Damping?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Lars

    2007-01-01

    This paper concerns the formulation of lumped-parameter models for rigid footings on homogenous or stratified soil with focus on the horizontal sliding and rocking. Such models only contain a few degrees of freedom, which makes them ideal for inclusion in aero-elastic codes for wind turbines......-parameter models with respect to the prediction of the maximum response during excitation and the geometrical damping related to free vibrations of a footing....

  7. Methodology for biosphere analysis in high level waste disposal. Application to the Mediterranean system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pinedo, P.; Simon, I.; Aguero, A.; Cancio, D.

    2000-01-01

    For several years CIEMAT has been developing for ENRESA a conceptual approach and tools to support the modelling of the migration and accumulation of radionuclides within the biosphere once those radionuclides are released or reach one or more parts of the biosphere (atmosphere, water bodies or soils). The model development also includes evaluation of radiological impacts arising from the resulting distribution of radionuclides in the biosphere. At the time when the methodology was proposed, the level of development of the different aspects proposed within it was quite heterogeneous and, while aspects of radionuclide transport modelling were already well developed in theoretical and practical terms, other aspects, like the procedure for conceptual model development and the description of biosphere systems representatives of the long term needed further developments. The developments have been performed in parallel to international projects, within which there were and are an active participation, mainly, the BIOphere Models Validation Study (BIOMOVS II) international Project, within which it was developed the so called Reference Biosphere Methodology and, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Programme on BIOsphere Modelling and ASSessment methods (BIOMASS), that is under development at present. The methodology been made takes account of these international developments. The purpose of the work summarised herein is the application of the methodology to the 1997 performance assessment (PA) exercise made by ENRESA, using from it the general and particular information about the assessment context, the source term, and the geo-biosphere interface data. (author)

  8. The biomass theme 1 project: Reference biospheres

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Crossland, I.; Torres-Vidal, C.

    2000-01-01

    The long-term safety of a facility for the disposal of long-lived radioactive waste would principally depend upon a combination of engineered and natural barriers which would ensure that the radioactivity was prevented from reaching the biosphere. To assess radiological safety over extended timescales requires the construction of 'assessment biospheres'. A possibility is the development of 'Reference Biospheres', a series of stylised, internationally-agreed assessment biospheres that could be used to support post-closure assessments in a wide variety of situations. Current activities in this subject area are described. (author)

  9. Incorporating model parameter uncertainty into inverse treatment planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lian Jun; Xing Lei

    2004-01-01

    Radiobiological treatment planning depends not only on the accuracy of the models describing the dose-response relation of different tumors and normal tissues but also on the accuracy of tissue specific radiobiological parameters in these models. Whereas the general formalism remains the same, different sets of model parameters lead to different solutions and thus critically determine the final plan. Here we describe an inverse planning formalism with inclusion of model parameter uncertainties. This is made possible by using a statistical analysis-based frameset developed by our group. In this formalism, the uncertainties of model parameters, such as the parameter a that describes tissue-specific effect in the equivalent uniform dose (EUD) model, are expressed by probability density function and are included in the dose optimization process. We found that the final solution strongly depends on distribution functions of the model parameters. Considering that currently available models for computing biological effects of radiation are simplistic, and the clinical data used to derive the models are sparse and of questionable quality, the proposed technique provides us with an effective tool to minimize the effect caused by the uncertainties in a statistical sense. With the incorporation of the uncertainties, the technique has potential for us to maximally utilize the available radiobiology knowledge for better IMRT treatment

  10. Application of the Biosphere Assessment Methodology to the ENRESA, 1997 Performance and Safety Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pinedo, P.; Simon, I.; Aguero, A.

    1998-01-01

    For several years CIEMAT has been developing for ENRESA knowledge and tools to support the modelling of the migration and accumulation of radionuclides within the biosphere once those radionuclides are released or reach one or more parts of the biosphere (atmosphere, water bodies or soils). The model development also includes evaluation of radiological impacts arising from the resulting distribution of radionuclides in the biosphere. In 1996, a Methodology to analyse the biosphere in this context proposed to ENRESA. The level of development of the different aspects proposed within the Methodology was quite heterogeneous and, while aspects of radionuclide transport modelling were already well developed in theoretical and practical terms, other aspects like the procedure for conceptual model development and the description of biosphere system representatives of the long term needed further developments. At present, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Programme on Biosphere Modelling and Assessment (BIOMASS) in collaboration with several national organizations, ENRESA and CIEMAT among them, is working to complete and augment the Reference Biosphere Methodology and to produce some practical descriptions of Reference Systems. The overall purpose of this document is to apply the Methodology, taking account of on-going developments in biosphere modelling, to the last performance assessment (PA) exercise made by ENRESA (ENRESA, 1997), using from it the general and particular information about the assessment context, radionuclide information, geosphere and geobiosphere interface data. There are three particular objectives to this work: (a) to determine the practicability of the Methodology in an application to a realistic assessment situation, (b) To compare and contrast previous biosphere modelling in HLW PA and, (c) to test software development related with data management and modelling. (Author) 42 refs

  11. A method for model identification and parameter estimation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bambach, M; Heinkenschloss, M; Herty, M

    2013-01-01

    We propose and analyze a new method for the identification of a parameter-dependent model that best describes a given system. This problem arises, for example, in the mathematical modeling of material behavior where several competing constitutive equations are available to describe a given material. In this case, the models are differential equations that arise from the different constitutive equations, and the unknown parameters are coefficients in the constitutive equations. One has to determine the best-suited constitutive equations for a given material and application from experiments. We assume that the true model is one of the N possible parameter-dependent models. To identify the correct model and the corresponding parameters, we can perform experiments, where for each experiment we prescribe an input to the system and observe a part of the system state. Our approach consists of two stages. In the first stage, for each pair of models we determine the experiment, i.e. system input and observation, that best differentiates between the two models, and measure the distance between the two models. Then we conduct N(N − 1) or, depending on the approach taken, N(N − 1)/2 experiments and use the result of the experiments as well as the previously computed model distances to determine the true model. We provide sufficient conditions on the model distances and measurement errors which guarantee that our approach identifies the correct model. Given the model, we identify the corresponding model parameters in the second stage. The problem in the second stage is a standard parameter estimation problem and we use a method suitable for the given application. We illustrate our approach on three examples, including one where the models are elliptic partial differential equations with different parameterized right-hand sides and an example where we identify the constitutive equation in a problem from computational viscoplasticity. (paper)

  12. Estimation of Mangrove Net Primary Production and Carbon Sequestration service using Light Use Efficiency model in the Sunderban Biosphere region, India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sannigrahi, Srikanta; Sen, Somnath; Paul, Saikat

    2016-04-01

    Net Primary Production (NPP) of mangrove ecosystem and its capacity to sequester carbon from the atmosphere may be used to quantify the regulatory ecosystem services. Three major group of parameters has been set up as BioClimatic Parameters (BCP): (Photosynthetically Active Radiation (PAR), Absorbed PAR (APAR), Fraction of PAR (FPAR), Photochemical Reflectance Index (PRI), Light Use Efficiency (LUE)), BioPhysical Parameters (BPP) :(Normalize Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), scaled NDVI, Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI), scaled EVI, Optimised and Modified Soil Adjusted Vegetation Index (OSAVI, MSAVI), Leaf Area Index (LAI)), and Environmental Limiting Parameters (ELP) (Temperature Stress (TS), Land Surface Water Index (LSWI), Normalize Soil Water Index (NSWI), Water Stress Scalar (WS), Inversed WS (iWS) Land Surface Temperature (LST), scaled LST, Vapor Pressure Deficit (VPD), scaled VPD, and Soil Water Deficit Index (SWDI)). Several LUE models namely Carnegie Ames Stanford Approach (CASA), Eddy Covariance - LUE (EC-LUE), Global Production Efficiency Model (GloPEM), Vegetation Photosynthesis Model (VPM), MOD NPP model, Temperature and Greenness Model (TG), Greenness and Radiation model (GR) and MOD17 was adopted in this study to assess the spatiotemporal nature of carbon fluxes. Above and Below Ground Biomass (AGB & BGB) was calculated using field based estimation of OSAVI and NDVI. Microclimatic zonation has been set up to assess the impact of coastal climate on environmental limiting factors. MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) based yearly Gross Primary Production (GPP) and NPP product MOD17 was also tested with LUE based results with standard model validation statistics: Root Mean Square of Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MEA), Bias, Coefficient of Variation (CV) and Coefficient of Determination (R2). The performance of CASA NPP was tested with the ground based NPP with R2 = 0.89 RMSE = 3.28 P = 0.01. Among the all adopted models, EC

  13. Development of a reference biospheres methodology for radioactive waste disposal. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dorp, F. van

    1996-09-01

    team in modelling, radioecology etc, can be readily incorporated. Iterative cross-checking of the interaction matrix and FEP List contents is regarded as an important part of the procedure. FEP Lists of the type referred to above can be developed for specific assessments, eg, through applying the interaction matrix methodology. An example of the type of software tool which can be used to maintain and extend a FEP List has been developed within the Group. It is called BIOFEP and is described in an Appendix. Detailed assumptions about migration and accumulation of radionuclides in biosphere media with which humans interact will be strongly dependent upon the assumptions which have to be made about the individuals or population groups for whom radiation doses are being assessed. The Working Group has reviewed these 'critical group' assumptions and found considerable variability in both regulatory specification and in performance assessments designed to meet regulatory objectives. Consistency in approach to regulation and assessment is to be desired. While the Working Group has been broadly successful in setting out an appropriate methodology and providing useful input to model development in terms of FEPs and application experience, further activities are recommended. In summary, these involve further testing and augmentation of the methodology: to consider a wider range of basic system descriptions; to more fully develop conceptual models according to the methodology; to examine other types of release from the geosphere; to develop principles for critical group definition; and to develop principles for applying field and other data in defining parameters used in models to represent processes

  14. Optimal parameters for the FFA-Beddoes dynamic stall model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bjoerck, A.; Mert, M. [FFA, The Aeronautical Research Institute of Sweden, Bromma (Sweden); Madsen, H.A. [Risoe National Lab., Roskilde (Denmark)

    1999-03-01

    Unsteady aerodynamic effects, like dynamic stall, must be considered in calculation of dynamic forces for wind turbines. Models incorporated in aero-elastic programs are of semi-empirical nature. Resulting aerodynamic forces therefore depend on values used for the semi-empiricial parameters. In this paper a study of finding appropriate parameters to use with the Beddoes-Leishman model is discussed. Minimisation of the `tracking error` between results from 2D wind tunnel tests and simulation with the model is used to find optimum values for the parameters. The resulting optimum parameters show a large variation from case to case. Using these different sets of optimum parameters in the calculation of blade vibrations, give rise to quite different predictions of aerodynamic damping which is discussed. (au)

  15. A distributed approach for parameters estimation in System Biology models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mosca, E.; Merelli, I.; Alfieri, R.; Milanesi, L.

    2009-01-01

    Due to the lack of experimental measurements, biological variability and experimental errors, the value of many parameters of the systems biology mathematical models is yet unknown or uncertain. A possible computational solution is the parameter estimation, that is the identification of the parameter values that determine the best model fitting respect to experimental data. We have developed an environment to distribute each run of the parameter estimation algorithm on a different computational resource. The key feature of the implementation is a relational database that allows the user to swap the candidate solutions among the working nodes during the computations. The comparison of the distributed implementation with the parallel one showed that the presented approach enables a faster and better parameter estimation of systems biology models.

  16. Do Lumped-Parameter Models Provide the Correct Geometrical Damping?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Lars

    This paper concerns the formulation of lumped-parameter models for rigid footings on homogenous or stratified soil. Such models only contain a few degrees of freedom, which makes them ideal for inclusion in aero-elastic codes for wind turbines and other models applied to fast evaluation of struct......This paper concerns the formulation of lumped-parameter models for rigid footings on homogenous or stratified soil. Such models only contain a few degrees of freedom, which makes them ideal for inclusion in aero-elastic codes for wind turbines and other models applied to fast evaluation...... response during excitation and the geometrical damping related to free vibrations of a hexagonal footing. The optimal order of a lumped-parameter model is determined for each degree of freedom, i.e. horizontal and vertical translation as well as torsion and rocking. In particular, the necessity of coupling...

  17. Parameter estimation for groundwater models under uncertain irrigation data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Demissie, Yonas; Valocchi, Albert J.; Cai, Ximing; Brozovic, Nicholas; Senay, Gabriel; Gebremichael, Mekonnen

    2015-01-01

    The success of modeling groundwater is strongly influenced by the accuracy of the model parameters that are used to characterize the subsurface system. However, the presence of uncertainty and possibly bias in groundwater model source/sink terms may lead to biased estimates of model parameters and model predictions when the standard regression-based inverse modeling techniques are used. This study first quantifies the levels of bias in groundwater model parameters and predictions due to the presence of errors in irrigation data. Then, a new inverse modeling technique called input uncertainty weighted least-squares (IUWLS) is presented for unbiased estimation of the parameters when pumping and other source/sink data are uncertain. The approach uses the concept of generalized least-squares method with the weight of the objective function depending on the level of pumping uncertainty and iteratively adjusted during the parameter optimization process. We have conducted both analytical and numerical experiments, using irrigation pumping data from the Republican River Basin in Nebraska, to evaluate the performance of ordinary least-squares (OLS) and IUWLS calibration methods under different levels of uncertainty of irrigation data and calibration conditions. The result from the OLS method shows the presence of statistically significant (p model predictions that persist despite calibrating the models to different calibration data and sample sizes. However, by directly accounting for the irrigation pumping uncertainties during the calibration procedures, the proposed IUWLS is able to minimize the bias effectively without adding significant computational burden to the calibration processes.

  18. Transformations among CE–CVM model parameters for ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Unknown

    parameters which exclusively represent interactions of the higher order systems. Such a procedure is presen- ted in detail in this communication. Furthermore, the details of transformations required to express the model parameters in one basis from those defined in another basis for the same system are also presented.

  19. Transformations among CE–CVM model parameters for ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    ... of parameters which exclusively represent interactions of the higher order systems. Such a procedure is presented in detail in this communication. Furthermore, the details of transformations required to express the model parameters in one basis from those defined in another basis for the same system are also presented.

  20. Prior distributions for item parameters in IRT models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Matteucci, M.; S. Mignani, Prof.; Veldkamp, Bernard P.

    2012-01-01

    The focus of this article is on the choice of suitable prior distributions for item parameters within item response theory (IRT) models. In particular, the use of empirical prior distributions for item parameters is proposed. Firstly, regression trees are implemented in order to build informative

  1. Posiva's Strategy for Biosphere Studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hautojaervi, Aimo; Vieno, Timo

    2002-01-01

    Aimo Hautojaervi (Posiva, Finland) explained that Posiva follows the regulation from authorities that will be published soon on the STUK Web site in an English version. As an example, he said that a dose constraint of 0.1 mSv/a must be considered for several thousand years and release rate constraint for the long term. The values for these constraints were given by STUK and Posiva needs to demonstrate compliance. Posiva welcomes the regulator's clear requirements and guidance in the field of biosphere analyses. Moreover, Aimo Hautojaervi presented the planned future work that will be carried out by Posiva. As well as carrying out biosphere modelling for potential recipients at Olkiluoto, Posiva will conduct biosphere analyses for wells, lakes, seas, etc., and further evaluate human actions and develop biosphere models in close cooperation with SKB. Posiva is also actively seeking international cooperation in these new researches fields, for example within IAEA. Two potentially problematic radionuclides were also mentioned: C-14 and Radon plus decay products. These two radionuclides will be studied in depth in the future Posiva research and development programme

  2. Retrospective forecast of ETAS model with daily parameters estimate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Falcone, Giuseppe; Murru, Maura; Console, Rodolfo; Marzocchi, Warner; Zhuang, Jiancang

    2016-04-01

    We present a retrospective ETAS (Epidemic Type of Aftershock Sequence) model based on the daily updating of free parameters during the background, the learning and the test phase of a seismic sequence. The idea was born after the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake. The CSEP (Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability) Center in Japan provided an appropriate testing benchmark for the five 1-day submitted models. Of all the models, only one was able to successfully predict the number of events that really happened. This result was verified using both the real time and the revised catalogs. The main cause of the failure was in the underestimation of the forecasted events, due to model parameters maintained fixed during the test. Moreover, the absence in the learning catalog of an event similar to the magnitude of the mainshock (M9.0), which drastically changed the seismicity in the area, made the learning parameters not suitable to describe the real seismicity. As an example of this methodological development we show the evolution of the model parameters during the last two strong seismic sequences in Italy: the 2009 L'Aquila and the 2012 Reggio Emilia episodes. The achievement of the model with daily updated parameters is compared with that of same model where the parameters remain fixed during the test time.

  3. Stochastic hyperelastic modeling considering dependency of material parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caylak, Ismail; Penner, Eduard; Dridger, Alex; Mahnken, Rolf

    2018-03-01

    This paper investigates the uncertainty of a hyperelastic model by treating random material parameters as stochastic variables. For its stochastic discretization a polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) is used. An important aspect in our work is the consideration of stochastic dependencies in the stochastic modeling of Ogden's material model. To this end, artificial experiments are generated using the auto-regressive moving average process based on real experiments. The parameter identification for all data provides statistics of Ogden's material parameters, which are subsequently used for stochastic modeling. Stochastic dependencies are incorporated into the PCE using a Nataf transformation from dependent distributed random variables to independent standard normal distributed ones. The representative numerical example shows that our proposed method adequately takes into account the stochastic dependencies of Ogden's material parameters.

  4. A compact cyclic plasticity model with parameter evolution

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Krenk, Steen; Tidemann, L.

    2017-01-01

    by the Armstrong–Frederick model, contained as a special case of the present model for a particular choice of the shape parameter. In contrast to previous work, where shaping the stress-strain loops is derived from multiple internal stress states, this effect is here represented by a single parameter......The paper presents a compact model for cyclic plasticity based on energy in terms of external and internal variables, and plastic yielding described by kinematic hardening and a flow potential with an additive term controlling the nonlinear cyclic hardening. The model is basically described by five...... parameters: external and internal stiffness, a yield stress and a limiting ultimate stress, and finally a parameter controlling the gradual development of plastic deformation. Calibration against numerous experimental results indicates that typically larger plastic strains develop than predicted...

  5. Parameter Estimation for the Thurstone Case III Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mackay, David B.; Chaiy, Seoil

    1982-01-01

    The ability of three estimation criteria to recover parameters of the Thurstone Case V and Case III models from comparative judgment data was investigated via Monte Carlo techniques. Significant differences in recovery are shown to exist. (Author/JKS)

  6. Improved parameter estimation for hydrological models using weighted object functions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stein, A.; Zaadnoordijk, W.J.

    1999-01-01

    This paper discusses the sensitivity of calibration of hydrological model parameters to different objective functions. Several functions are defined with weights depending upon the hydrological background. These are compared with an objective function based upon kriging. Calibration is applied to

  7. Partial sum approaches to mathematical parameters of some growth models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Korkmaz, Mehmet

    2016-04-01

    Growth model is fitted by evaluating the mathematical parameters, a, b and c. In this study, the method of partial sums were used. For finding the mathematical parameters, firstly three partial sums were used, secondly four partial sums were used, thirdly five partial sums were used and finally N partial sums were used. The purpose of increasing the partial decomposition is to produce a better phase model which gives a better expected value by minimizing error sum of squares in the interval used.

  8. Parameter estimation in stochastic rainfall-runoff models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jonsdottir, Harpa; Madsen, Henrik; Palsson, Olafur Petur

    2006-01-01

    A parameter estimation method for stochastic rainfall-runoff models is presented. The model considered in the paper is a conceptual stochastic model, formulated in continuous-discrete state space form. The model is small and a fully automatic optimization is, therefore, possible for estimating all....... For a comparison the parameters are also estimated by an output error method, where the sum of squared simulation error is minimized. The former methodology is optimal for short-term prediction whereas the latter is optimal for simulations. Hence, depending on the purpose it is possible to select whether...... the parameter values are optimal for simulation or prediction. The data originates from Iceland and the model is designed for Icelandic conditions, including a snow routine for mountainous areas. The model demands only two input data series, precipitation and temperature and one output data series...

  9. Luminescence model with quantum impact parameter for low energy ions

    CERN Document Server

    Cruz-Galindo, H S; Martínez-Davalos, A; Belmont-Moreno, E; Galindo, S

    2002-01-01

    We have modified an analytical model of induced light production by energetic ions interacting in scintillating materials. The original model is based on the distribution of energy deposited by secondary electrons produced along the ion's track. The range of scattered electrons, and thus the energy distribution, depends on a classical impact parameter between the electron and the ion's track. The only adjustable parameter of the model is the quenching density rho sub q. The modification here presented, consists in proposing a quantum impact parameter that leads to a better fit of the model to the experimental data at low incident ion energies. The light output response of CsI(Tl) detectors to low energy ions (<3 MeV/A) is fitted with the modified model and comparison is made to the original model.

  10. Microbial metagenomes from three aquifers in the Fennoscandian shield terrestrial deep biosphere reveal metabolic partitioning among populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Xiaofen; Holmfeldt, Karin; Hubalek, Valerie; Lundin, Daniel; Åström, Mats; Bertilsson, Stefan; Dopson, Mark

    2016-05-01

    Microorganisms in the terrestrial deep biosphere host up to 20% of the earth's biomass and are suggested to be sustained by the gases hydrogen and carbon dioxide. A metagenome analysis of three deep subsurface water types of contrasting age (from 86% coverage. The populations were dominated by Proteobacteria, Candidate divisions, unclassified archaea and unclassified bacteria. The estimated genome sizes of the biosphere. The data were finally used to create a combined metabolic model of the deep terrestrial biosphere microbial community.

  11. Site and Regional Data for Biosphere Assessment BSA-2009 Supplement to Olkiluoto Biosphere Description 2009

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aro, L.; Haapanen, R.; Puhakka, L.; Hjerpe, T.; Kirkkala, T.; Koivunen, S.; Lahdenperae, A.-M.; Salo, T.; Ikonen, A.T.K.; Helin, J.

    2010-06-01

    The safety case for a spent nuclear fuel repository at Olkiluoto includes a computational safety assessment. A site-specific biosphere assessment is an integral part of them both. In 2009 an assessment was conducted to demonstrate preparedness to apply for construction license to the repository in 2012. As a part of the biosphere assessment, the present conditions at the site are described in Olkiluoto biosphere description report for an analogue of the future conditions being simulated in the safety assessment. This report is a supplement to the biosphere description report of 2009 and documents the site and regional data used in the biosphere assessment 'BSA-2009' with respective rationales. (orig.)

  12. Combined Estimation of Hydrogeologic Conceptual Model and Parameter Uncertainty

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Meyer, Philip D.; Ye, Ming; Neuman, Shlomo P.; Cantrell, Kirk J.

    2004-03-01

    The objective of the research described in this report is the development and application of a methodology for comprehensively assessing the hydrogeologic uncertainties involved in dose assessment, including uncertainties associated with conceptual models, parameters, and scenarios. This report describes and applies a statistical method to quantitatively estimate the combined uncertainty in model predictions arising from conceptual model and parameter uncertainties. The method relies on model averaging to combine the predictions of a set of alternative models. Implementation is driven by the available data. When there is minimal site-specific data the method can be carried out with prior parameter estimates based on generic data and subjective prior model probabilities. For sites with observations of system behavior (and optionally data characterizing model parameters), the method uses model calibration to update the prior parameter estimates and model probabilities based on the correspondence between model predictions and site observations. The set of model alternatives can contain both simplified and complex models, with the requirement that all models be based on the same set of data. The method was applied to the geostatistical modeling of air permeability at a fractured rock site. Seven alternative variogram models of log air permeability were considered to represent data from single-hole pneumatic injection tests in six boreholes at the site. Unbiased maximum likelihood estimates of variogram and drift parameters were obtained for each model. Standard information criteria provided an ambiguous ranking of the models, which would not justify selecting one of them and discarding all others as is commonly done in practice. Instead, some of the models were eliminated based on their negligibly small updated probabilities and the rest were used to project the measured log permeabilities by kriging onto a rock volume containing the six boreholes. These four

  13. Sensitivity of the terrestrial biosphere to climatic changes: impact on the carbon cycle.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Friedlingstein, P; Müller, J F; Brasseur, G P

    1994-01-01

    The biosphere is a major pool in the global carbon cycle; its response to climatic change is therefore of great importance. We developed a 5 degrees x 5 degrees longitude-latitude resolution model of the biosphere in which the global distributions of the major biospheric variables, i.e. the vegetation types and the main carbon pools and fluxes, are determined from climatic variables. We defined nine major broad vegetation types: perennial ice, desert and semi-desert, tundra, coniferous forest, temperate deciduous forest, grassland and shrubland, savannah, seasonal tropical forest and evergreen tropical forest. Their geographical repartition is parameterized using correlations between observed vegetation type, precipitation and biotemperature distributions. The model computes as a function of climate and vegetation type, the variables related to the continental biospheric carbon cycle, i.e. the carbon pools such as the phytomass, the litter and the soil organic carbon; and carbon fluxes such as net primary production, litter production and heterotrophic respiration. The modeled present-day biosphere is in good agreement with observation. The model is used to investigate the response of the terrestrial biosphere to climatic changes as predicted by different General Circulation Models (GCM). In particular, the impact on the biosphere of climatic conditions corresponding to the last glacial climate (LGM), 18 000 years ago, is investigated. Comparison with results from present-day climate simulations shows the high sensitivity of the geographical distribution of vegetation types and carbon content as well as biospheric trace gases emissions to climatic changes. The general trend for LGM compared to the present is an increase in low density vegetation types (tundra, desert, grassland) to the detriment of forested areas, in tropical as well as in other regions. Consequently, the biospheric activity (carbon fluxes and trace gases emissions) was reduced.

  14. The Study of Socio-Biospheric Problems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scott, Andrew M.

    Concepts, tools, and a methodology are needed which will permit the analysis of emergent socio-biospheric problems and facilitate their effective management. Many contemporary problems may be characterized as socio-biospheric; for example, pollution of the seas, acid rain, the growth of cities, and an atmosphere loaded with carcinogens. However,…

  15. SPOTting Model Parameters Using a Ready-Made Python Package.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tobias Houska

    Full Text Available The choice for specific parameter estimation methods is often more dependent on its availability than its performance. We developed SPOTPY (Statistical Parameter Optimization Tool, an open source python package containing a comprehensive set of methods typically used to calibrate, analyze and optimize parameters for a wide range of ecological models. SPOTPY currently contains eight widely used algorithms, 11 objective functions, and can sample from eight parameter distributions. SPOTPY has a model-independent structure and can be run in parallel from the workstation to large computation clusters using the Message Passing Interface (MPI. We tested SPOTPY in five different case studies to parameterize the Rosenbrock, Griewank and Ackley functions, a one-dimensional physically based soil moisture routine, where we searched for parameters of the van Genuchten-Mualem function and a calibration of a biogeochemistry model with different objective functions. The case studies reveal that the implemented SPOTPY methods can be used for any model with just a minimal amount of code for maximal power of parameter optimization. They further show the benefit of having one package at hand that includes number of well performing parameter search methods, since not every case study can be solved sufficiently with every algorithm or every objective function.

  16. Simultaneous inference for model averaging of derived parameters

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Signe Marie; Ritz, Christian

    2015-01-01

    Model averaging is a useful approach for capturing uncertainty due to model selection. Currently, this uncertainty is often quantified by means of approximations that do not easily extend to simultaneous inference. Moreover, in practice there is a need for both model averaging and simultaneous...... inference for derived parameters calculated in an after-fitting step. We propose a method for obtaining asymptotically correct standard errors for one or several model-averaged estimates of derived parameters and for obtaining simultaneous confidence intervals that asymptotically control the family...

  17. Updating parameters of the chicken processing line model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kurowicka, Dorota; Nauta, Maarten; Jozwiak, Katarzyna

    2010-01-01

    A mathematical model of chicken processing that quantitatively describes the transmission of Campylobacter on chicken carcasses from slaughter to chicken meat product has been developed in Nauta et al. (2005). This model was quantified with expert judgment. Recent availability of data allows...... updating parameters of the model to better describe processes observed in slaughterhouses. We propose Bayesian updating as a suitable technique to update expert judgment with microbiological data. Berrang and Dickens’s data are used to demonstrate performance of this method in updating parameters...... of the chicken processing line model....

  18. Lumped-Parameter Models for Windturbine Footings on Layered Ground

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Lars

    The design of modern wind turbines is typically based on lifetime analyses using aeroelastic codes. In this regard, the impedance of the foundations must be described accurately without increasing the overall size of the computationalmodel significantly. This may be obtained by the fitting...... of a lumped-parameter model to the results of a rigorous model or experimental results. In this paper, guidelines are given for the formulation of such lumped-parameter models and examples are given in which the models are utilised for the analysis of a wind turbine supported by a surface footing on a layered...

  19. Parameter estimation and model selection in computational biology.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriele Lillacci

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available A central challenge in computational modeling of biological systems is the determination of the model parameters. Typically, only a fraction of the parameters (such as kinetic rate constants are experimentally measured, while the rest are often fitted. The fitting process is usually based on experimental time course measurements of observables, which are used to assign parameter values that minimize some measure of the error between these measurements and the corresponding model prediction. The measurements, which can come from immunoblotting assays, fluorescent markers, etc., tend to be very noisy and taken at a limited number of time points. In this work we present a new approach to the problem of parameter selection of biological models. We show how one can use a dynamic recursive estimator, known as extended Kalman filter, to arrive at estimates of the model parameters. The proposed method follows. First, we use a variation of the Kalman filter that is particularly well suited to biological applications to obtain a first guess for the unknown parameters. Secondly, we employ an a posteriori identifiability test to check the reliability of the estimates. Finally, we solve an optimization problem to refine the first guess in case it should not be accurate enough. The final estimates are guaranteed to be statistically consistent with the measurements. Furthermore, we show how the same tools can be used to discriminate among alternate models of the same biological process. We demonstrate these ideas by applying our methods to two examples, namely a model of the heat shock response in E. coli, and a model of a synthetic gene regulation system. The methods presented are quite general and may be applied to a wide class of biological systems where noisy measurements are used for parameter estimation or model selection.

  20. Development of new model for high explosives detonation parameters calculation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeremić Radun

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The simple semi-empirical model for calculation of detonation pressure and velocity for CHNO explosives has been developed, which is based on experimental values of detonation parameters. Model uses Avakyan’s method for determination of detonation products' chemical composition, and is applicable in wide range of densities. Compared with the well-known Kamlet's method and numerical model of detonation based on BKW EOS, the calculated values from proposed model have significantly better accuracy.

  1. Parameter uncertainty analysis of a biokinetic model of caesium

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, W.B.; Oeh, U.; Klein, W.; Blanchardon, E.; Puncher, M.; Leggett, R.W.; Breustedt, B.; Nosske, D.; Lopez, M.A.

    2015-01-01

    Parameter uncertainties for the biokinetic model of caesium (Cs) developed by Leggett et al. were inventoried and evaluated. The methods of parameter uncertainty analysis were used to assess the uncertainties of model predictions with the assumptions of model parameter uncertainties and distributions. Furthermore, the importance of individual model parameters was assessed by means of sensitivity analysis. The calculated uncertainties of model predictions were compared with human data of Cs measured in blood and in the whole body. It was found that propagating the derived uncertainties in model parameter values reproduced the range of bioassay data observed in human subjects at different times after intake. The maximum ranges, expressed as uncertainty factors (UFs) (defined as a square root of ratio between 97.5. and 2.5. percentiles) of blood clearance, whole-body retention and urinary excretion of Cs predicted at earlier time after intake were, respectively: 1.5, 1.0 and 2.5 at the first day; 1.8, 1.1 and 2.4 at Day 10 and 1.8, 2.0 and 1.8 at Day 100; for the late times (1000 d) after intake, the UFs were increased to 43, 24 and 31, respectively. The model parameters of transfer rates between kidneys and blood, muscle and blood and the rate of transfer from kidneys to urinary bladder content are most influential to the blood clearance and to the whole-body retention of Cs. For the urinary excretion, the parameters of transfer rates from urinary bladder content to urine and from kidneys to urinary bladder content impact mostly. The implication and effect on the estimated equivalent and effective doses of the larger uncertainty of 43 in whole-body retention in the later time, say, after Day 500 will be explored in a successive work in the framework of EURADOS. (authors)

  2. Sensor placement for calibration of spatially varying model parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nath, Paromita; Hu, Zhen; Mahadevan, Sankaran

    2017-08-01

    This paper presents a sensor placement optimization framework for the calibration of spatially varying model parameters. To account for the randomness of the calibration parameters over space and across specimens, the spatially varying parameter is represented as a random field. Based on this representation, Bayesian calibration of spatially varying parameter is investigated. To reduce the required computational effort during Bayesian calibration, the original computer simulation model is substituted with Kriging surrogate models based on the singular value decomposition (SVD) of the model response and the Karhunen-Loeve expansion (KLE) of the spatially varying parameters. A sensor placement optimization problem is then formulated based on the Bayesian calibration to maximize the expected information gain measured by the expected Kullback-Leibler (K-L) divergence. The optimization problem needs to evaluate the expected K-L divergence repeatedly which requires repeated calibration of the spatially varying parameter, and this significantly increases the computational effort of solving the optimization problem. To overcome this challenge, an approximation for the posterior distribution is employed within the optimization problem to facilitate the identification of the optimal sensor locations using the simulated annealing algorithm. A heat transfer problem with spatially varying thermal conductivity is used to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

  3. Procedures for parameter estimates of computational models for localized failure

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Iacono, C.

    2007-01-01

    In the last years, many computational models have been developed for tensile fracture in concrete. However, their reliability is related to the correct estimate of the model parameters, not all directly measurable during laboratory tests. Hence, the development of inverse procedures is needed, that

  4. Geometry parameters for musculoskeletal modelling of the shoulder system

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van der Helm, F C; Veeger, DirkJan (H. E. J.); Pronk, G M; Van der Woude, L H; Rozendal, R H

    A dynamical finite-element model of the shoulder mechanism consisting of thorax, clavicula, scapula and humerus is outlined. The parameters needed for the model are obtained in a cadaver experiment consisting of both shoulders of seven cadavers. In this paper, in particular, the derivation of

  5. Sensitivity analysis for modules for various biosphere types

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Karlsson, Sara; Bergstroem, U.; Rosen, K.

    2000-09-01

    This study presents the results of a sensitivity analysis for the modules developed earlier for calculation of ecosystem specific dose conversion factors (EDFs). The report also includes a comparison between the probabilistically calculated mean values of the EDFs and values gained in deterministic calculations. An overview of the distribution of radionuclides between different environmental parts in the models is also presented. The radionuclides included in the study were 36 Cl, 59 Ni, 93 Mo, 129 I, 135 Cs, 237 Np and 239 Pu, sel to represent various behaviour in the biosphere and some are of particular importance from the dose point of view. The deterministic and probabilistic EDFs showed a good agreement, for most nuclides and modules. Exceptions from this occurred if very skew distributions were used for parameters of importance for the results. Only a minor amount of the released radionuclides were present in the model compartments for all modules, except for the agricultural land module. The differences between the radionuclides were not pronounced which indicates that nuclide specific parameters were of minor importance for the retention of radionuclides for the simulated time period of 10 000 years in those modules. The results from the agricultural land module showed a different pattern. Large amounts of the radionuclides were present in the solid fraction of the saturated soil zone. The high retention within this compartment makes the zone a potential source for future exposure. Differences between the nuclides due to element specific Kd-values could be seen. The amount of radionuclides present in the upper soil layer, which is the most critical zone for exposure to humans, was less then 1% for all studied radionuclides. The sensitivity analysis showed that the physical/chemical parameters were the most important in most modules in contrast to the dominance of biological parameters in the uncertainty analysis. The only exception was the well module where

  6. Insights into the Deep Biosphere from Petroleum Geology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larter, S.; Adams, J. J.; Huang, H.; Bennett, B.

    2008-12-01

    Petroleum reservoirs provide a unique and direct portal into the deep biosphere enabling microbiological and geochemical studies of microorganisms, carbon cycling processes, microbial reaction kinetics and the spatial distribution of the organisms. Detailed mapping of oil fluid property and chemical composition shows that microbially and geologically induced oil compositional gradients are ubiquitous at regional to sub-reservoir scales (1 m to 105 m) in heavy and super heavy oil deposits of the Alberta basin. Some oil columns shows a cascading series of gradients in one through three ring alkylaromatic hydrocarbons with increasingly deeper locations of complete compound removal related to increasing resistance of degrading hydrocarbon component to biodegradation and decreasing component diffusivity. Similar compositional profiles have been seen in other heavy oilfields around the globe. Vertical 1D compositional diffusion models coupling oil charge, diffusive mixing and the effects of geological barriers can match observed gradients when the active biodegradation zone extends across the oil-water transition zone and well into the oil column. We observe steepening compositional gradients at the base of the oil column coincident with up to 10-15 m thick, downward increasing water saturation zones, thicker than a capillary pressure controlled oil-water transition zone. These "burnout zones" possess the hallmarks of a vertically extensive bio-reactor with increased concentrations of biogeochemical parameters of microbial processes and commonly an immobile and probably discontinuous oil phase. In this zone and across an oilfield, the relative biodegradation susceptibility of different hydrocarbon components varies greatly, indicating a suite of biodegradation reaction pathways dependent in part on local mass transport controls. 1D models show that the top of the degradation zone is coincident with complete depletion of reactive components, when oil charge is active

  7. A software for parameter estimation in dynamic models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Yuceer

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available A common problem in dynamic systems is to determine parameters in an equation used to represent experimental data. The goal is to determine the values of model parameters that provide the best fit to measured data, generally based on some type of least squares or maximum likelihood criterion. In the most general case, this requires the solution of a nonlinear and frequently non-convex optimization problem. Some of the available software lack in generality, while others do not provide ease of use. A user-interactive parameter estimation software was needed for identifying kinetic parameters. In this work we developed an integration based optimization approach to provide a solution to such problems. For easy implementation of the technique, a parameter estimation software (PARES has been developed in MATLAB environment. When tested with extensive example problems from literature, the suggested approach is proven to provide good agreement between predicted and observed data within relatively less computing time and iterations.

  8. Improving the realism of hydrologic model through multivariate parameter estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rakovec, Oldrich; Kumar, Rohini; Attinger, Sabine; Samaniego, Luis

    2017-04-01

    Increased availability and quality of near real-time observations should improve understanding of predictive skills of hydrological models. Recent studies have shown the limited capability of river discharge data alone to adequately constrain different components of distributed model parameterizations. In this study, the GRACE satellite-based total water storage (TWS) anomaly is used to complement the discharge data with an aim to improve the fidelity of mesoscale hydrologic model (mHM) through multivariate parameter estimation. The study is conducted in 83 European basins covering a wide range of hydro-climatic regimes. The model parameterization complemented with the TWS anomalies leads to statistically significant improvements in (1) discharge simulations during low-flow period, and (2) evapotranspiration estimates which are evaluated against independent (FLUXNET) data. Overall, there is no significant deterioration in model performance for the discharge simulations when complemented by information from the TWS anomalies. However, considerable changes in the partitioning of precipitation into runoff components are noticed by in-/exclusion of TWS during the parameter estimation. A cross-validation test carried out to assess the transferability and robustness of the calibrated parameters to other locations further confirms the benefit of complementary TWS data. In particular, the evapotranspiration estimates show more robust performance when TWS data are incorporated during the parameter estimation, in comparison with the benchmark model constrained against discharge only. This study highlights the value for incorporating multiple data sources during parameter estimation to improve the overall realism of hydrologic model and its applications over large domains. Rakovec, O., Kumar, R., Attinger, S. and Samaniego, L. (2016): Improving the realism of hydrologic model functioning through multivariate parameter estimation. Water Resour. Res., 52, http://dx.doi.org/10

  9. Ground level enhancement (GLE) energy spectrum parameters model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qin, G.; Wu, S.

    2017-12-01

    We study the ground level enhancement (GLE) events in solar cycle 23 with the four energy spectra parameters, the normalization parameter C, low-energy power-law slope γ 1, high-energy power-law slope γ 2, and break energy E0, obtained by Mewaldt et al. 2012 who fit the observations to the double power-law equation. we divide the GLEs into two groups, one with strong acceleration by interplanetary (IP) shocks and another one without strong acceleration according to the condition of solar eruptions. We next fit the four parameters with solar event conditions to get models of the parameters for the two groups of GLEs separately. So that we would establish a model of energy spectrum for GLEs for the future space weather prediction.

  10. Determination of appropriate models and parameters for premixing calculations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Park, Ik-Kyu; Kim, Jong-Hwan; Min, Beong-Tae; Hong, Seong-Wan

    2008-03-15

    The purpose of the present work is to use experiments that have been performed at Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe during about the last ten years for determining the most appropriate models and parameters for premixing calculations. The results of a QUEOS experiment are used to fix the parameters concerning heat transfer. The QUEOS experiments are especially suited for this purpose as they have been performed with small hot solid spheres. Therefore the area of heat exchange is known. With the heat transfer parameters fixed in this way, a PREMIX experiment is recalculated. These experiments have been performed with molten alumina (Al{sub 2}O{sub 3}) as a simulant of corium. Its initial temperature is 2600 K. With these experiments the models and parameters for jet and drop break-up are tested.

  11. Parameter Estimation for Single Diode Models of Photovoltaic Modules

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hansen, Clifford [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). Photovoltaic and Distributed Systems Integration Dept.

    2015-03-01

    Many popular models for photovoltaic system performance employ a single diode model to compute the I - V curve for a module or string of modules at given irradiance and temperature conditions. A single diode model requires a number of parameters to be estimated from measured I - V curves. Many available parameter estimation methods use only short circuit, o pen circuit and maximum power points for a single I - V curve at standard test conditions together with temperature coefficients determined separately for individual cells. In contrast, module testing frequently records I - V curves over a wide range of irradi ance and temperature conditions which, when available , should also be used to parameterize the performance model. We present a parameter estimation method that makes use of a fu ll range of available I - V curves. We verify the accuracy of the method by recov ering known parameter values from simulated I - V curves . We validate the method by estimating model parameters for a module using outdoor test data and predicting the outdoor performance of the module.

  12. Modeling Chinese ionospheric layer parameters based on EOF analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, You; Wan, Weixing

    2016-04-01

    Using 24-ionosonde observations in and around China during the 20th solar cycle, an assimilative model is constructed to map the ionospheric layer parameters (foF2, hmF2, M(3000)F2, and foE) over China based on empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis. First, we decompose the background maps from the International Reference Ionosphere model 2007 (IRI-07) into different EOF modes. The obtained EOF modes consist of two factors: the EOF patterns and the corresponding EOF amplitudes. These two factors individually reflect the spatial distributions (e.g., the latitudinal dependence such as the equatorial ionization anomaly structure and the longitude structure with east-west difference) and temporal variations on different time scales (e.g., solar cycle, annual, semiannual, and diurnal variations) of the layer parameters. Then, the EOF patterns and long-term observations of ionosondes are assimilated to get the observed EOF amplitudes, which are further used to construct the Chinese Ionospheric Maps (CIMs) of the layer parameters. In contrast with the IRI-07 model, the mapped CIMs successfully capture the inherent temporal and spatial variations of the ionospheric layer parameters. Finally, comparison of the modeled (EOF and IRI-07 model) and observed values reveals that the EOF model reproduces the observation with smaller root-mean-square errors and higher linear correlation co- efficients. In addition, IRI discrepancy at the low latitude especially for foF2 is effectively removed by EOF model.

  13. Parameters and variables appearing in repository design models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Curtis, R.H.; Wart, R.J.

    1983-12-01

    This report defines the parameters and variables appearing in repository design models and presents typical values and ranges of values of each. Areas covered by this report include thermal, geomechanical, and coupled stress and flow analyses in rock. Particular emphasis is given to conductivity, radiation, and convection parameters for thermal analysis and elastic constants, failure criteria, creep laws, and joint properties for geomechanical analysis. The data in this report were compiled to help guide the selection of values of parameters and variables to be used in code benchmarking. 102 references, 33 figures, 51 tables

  14. A lumped parameter, low dimension model of heat exchanger

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kanoh, Hideaki; Furushoo, Junji; Masubuchi, Masami

    1980-01-01

    This paper reports on the results of investigation of the distributed parameter model, the difference model, and the model of the method of weighted residuals for heat exchangers. By the method of weighted residuals (MWR), the opposite flow heat exchanger system is approximated by low dimension, lumped parameter model. By assuming constant specific heat, constant density, the same form of tube cross-section, the same form of the surface of heat exchange, uniform flow velocity, the linear relation of heat transfer to flow velocity, liquid heat carrier, and the thermal insulation of liquid from outside, fundamental equations are obtained. The experimental apparatus was made of acrylic resin. The response of the temperature at the exit of first liquid to the variation of the flow rate of second liquid was measured and compared with the models. The MWR model shows good approximation for the low frequency region, and as the number of division increases, good approximation spreads to higher frequency region. (Kato, T.)

  15. Anthropogenic transformation of the terrestrial biosphere.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ellis, Erle C

    2011-03-13

    Human populations and their use of land have transformed most of the terrestrial biosphere into anthropogenic biomes (anthromes), causing a variety of novel ecological patterns and processes to emerge. To assess whether human populations and their use of land have directly altered the terrestrial biosphere sufficiently to indicate that the Earth system has entered a new geological epoch, spatially explicit global estimates of human populations and their use of land were analysed across the Holocene for their potential to induce irreversible novel transformation of the terrestrial biosphere. Human alteration of the terrestrial biosphere has been significant for more than 8000 years. However, only in the past century has the majority of the terrestrial biosphere been transformed into intensively used anthromes with predominantly novel anthropogenic ecological processes. At present, even were human populations to decline substantially or use of land become far more efficient, the current global extent, duration, type and intensity of human transformation of ecosystems have already irreversibly altered the terrestrial biosphere at levels sufficient to leave an unambiguous geological record differing substantially from that of the Holocene or any prior epoch. It remains to be seen whether the anthropogenic biosphere will be sustained and continue to evolve.

  16. Carbonyl Sulfide Serves as Tattletale for Biosphere Signal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Villalba, G.; Campbell, J. E.

    2016-12-01

    Currently, anthropogenic CO2 emissions over a geographic region can be calculated in several ways: 1) based on energy consumption using emission factors within city limits, 2) using 14CO2 as tracer for fossil CO2, and 3) subtracting the biosphere signal from observation (measured) CO2 data. In order to calculate the ecosystem CO2 emissions (respiration and photosynthesis), ecosystem models such as SiB, CASA, or others are used. However, it is not clear which is the best one to determine the ecosystem signal because they all give different results in terms of GPP. We first show simulations of biosphere CO2 given by SiB, CASA, and CAN-IBIS over central California. Each model gives different values of CO2 GPP. Using these values to determine fossil fuel CO2 contribution can give very different results. We suggest that COS can be used to determine which ecosystem model best represents the biosphere signal. Just like CO2, COS is taken up by photosynthesis but is not given off in respiration and can thus be used as a trace gas to estimate GPP. We begin with COS surface fluxes provided by SiB, CASA and CAN-IBIS for a 9km-resolution domain over the Bay Area of San Francisco and part of the San Joaquin Valley. Simulations using the atmospheric model WRF provide the meteorological data, which along with the COS fluxes, are used to run the transport model STEM over a 10-day period in March 2015. Simulations of COS mixing ratio based on the various surface flux models are compared to observed data available from several locations. The model that best represents COS uptake consequently also provides the most accurate simulation of CO2 biosphere signal, and is used to estimate fossil fuel CO2 emissions.

  17. Control of the SCOLE configuration using distributed parameter models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hsiao, Min-Hung; Huang, Jen-Kuang

    1994-01-01

    A continuum model for the SCOLE configuration has been derived using transfer matrices. Controller designs for distributed parameter systems have been analyzed. Pole-assignment controller design is considered easy to implement but stability is not guaranteed. An explicit transfer function of dynamic controllers has been obtained and no model reduction is required before the controller is realized. One specific LQG controller for continuum models had been derived, but other optimal controllers for more general performances need to be studied.

  18. SPOTting model parameters using a ready-made Python package

    Science.gov (United States)

    Houska, Tobias; Kraft, Philipp; Breuer, Lutz

    2015-04-01

    The selection and parameterization of reliable process descriptions in ecological modelling is driven by several uncertainties. The procedure is highly dependent on various criteria, like the used algorithm, the likelihood function selected and the definition of the prior parameter distributions. A wide variety of tools have been developed in the past decades to optimize parameters. Some of the tools are closed source. Due to this, the choice for a specific parameter estimation method is sometimes more dependent on its availability than the performance. A toolbox with a large set of methods can support users in deciding about the most suitable method. Further, it enables to test and compare different methods. We developed the SPOT (Statistical Parameter Optimization Tool), an open source python package containing a comprehensive set of modules, to analyze and optimize parameters of (environmental) models. SPOT comes along with a selected set of algorithms for parameter optimization and uncertainty analyses (Monte Carlo, MC; Latin Hypercube Sampling, LHS; Maximum Likelihood, MLE; Markov Chain Monte Carlo, MCMC; Scuffled Complex Evolution, SCE-UA; Differential Evolution Markov Chain, DE-MCZ), together with several likelihood functions (Bias, (log-) Nash-Sutcliff model efficiency, Correlation Coefficient, Coefficient of Determination, Covariance, (Decomposed-, Relative-, Root-) Mean Squared Error, Mean Absolute Error, Agreement Index) and prior distributions (Binomial, Chi-Square, Dirichlet, Exponential, Laplace, (log-, multivariate-) Normal, Pareto, Poisson, Cauchy, Uniform, Weibull) to sample from. The model-independent structure makes it suitable to analyze a wide range of applications. We apply all algorithms of the SPOT package in three different case studies. Firstly, we investigate the response of the Rosenbrock function, where the MLE algorithm shows its strengths. Secondly, we study the Griewank function, which has a challenging response surface for

  19. Modelling of intermittent microwave convective drying: parameter sensitivity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhang Zhijun

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The reliability of the predictions of a mathematical model is a prerequisite to its utilization. A multiphase porous media model of intermittent microwave convective drying is developed based on the literature. The model considers the liquid water, gas and solid matrix inside of food. The model is simulated by COMSOL software. Its sensitivity parameter is analysed by changing the parameter values by ±20%, with the exception of several parameters. The sensitivity analysis of the process of the microwave power level shows that each parameter: ambient temperature, effective gas diffusivity, and evaporation rate constant, has significant effects on the process. However, the surface mass, heat transfer coefficient, relative and intrinsic permeability of the gas, and capillary diffusivity of water do not have a considerable effect. The evaporation rate constant has minimal parameter sensitivity with a ±20% value change, until it is changed 10-fold. In all results, the temperature and vapour pressure curves show the same trends as the moisture content curve. However, the water saturation at the medium surface and in the centre show different results. Vapour transfer is the major mass transfer phenomenon that affects the drying process.

  20. Modelling of intermittent microwave convective drying: parameter sensitivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Zhijun; Qin, Wenchao; Shi, Bin; Gao, Jingxin; Zhang, Shiwei

    2017-06-01

    The reliability of the predictions of a mathematical model is a prerequisite to its utilization. A multiphase porous media model of intermittent microwave convective drying is developed based on the literature. The model considers the liquid water, gas and solid matrix inside of food. The model is simulated by COMSOL software. Its sensitivity parameter is analysed by changing the parameter values by ±20%, with the exception of several parameters. The sensitivity analysis of the process of the microwave power level shows that each parameter: ambient temperature, effective gas diffusivity, and evaporation rate constant, has significant effects on the process. However, the surface mass, heat transfer coefficient, relative and intrinsic permeability of the gas, and capillary diffusivity of water do not have a considerable effect. The evaporation rate constant has minimal parameter sensitivity with a ±20% value change, until it is changed 10-fold. In all results, the temperature and vapour pressure curves show the same trends as the moisture content curve. However, the water saturation at the medium surface and in the centre show different results. Vapour transfer is the major mass transfer phenomenon that affects the drying process.

  1. Synchronous Generator Model Parameter Estimation Based on Noisy Dynamic Waveforms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berhausen, Sebastian; Paszek, Stefan

    2016-01-01

    In recent years, there have occurred system failures in many power systems all over the world. They have resulted in a lack of power supply to a large number of recipients. To minimize the risk of occurrence of power failures, it is necessary to perform multivariate investigations, including simulations, of power system operating conditions. To conduct reliable simulations, the current base of parameters of the models of generating units, containing the models of synchronous generators, is necessary. In the paper, there is presented a method for parameter estimation of a synchronous generator nonlinear model based on the analysis of selected transient waveforms caused by introducing a disturbance (in the form of a pseudorandom signal) in the generator voltage regulation channel. The parameter estimation was performed by minimizing the objective function defined as a mean square error for deviations between the measurement waveforms and the waveforms calculated based on the generator mathematical model. A hybrid algorithm was used for the minimization of the objective function. In the paper, there is described a filter system used for filtering the noisy measurement waveforms. The calculation results of the model of a 44 kW synchronous generator installed on a laboratory stand of the Institute of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science of the Silesian University of Technology are also given. The presented estimation method can be successfully applied to parameter estimation of different models of high-power synchronous generators operating in a power system.

  2. On the role of modeling parameters in IMRT plan optimization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krause, Michael; Scherrer, Alexander; Thieke, Christian

    2008-01-01

    The formulation of optimization problems in intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) planning comprises the choice of various values such as function-specific parameters or constraint bounds. In current inverse planning programs that yield a single treatment plan for each optimization, it is often unclear how strongly these modeling parameters affect the resulting plan. This work investigates the mathematical concepts of elasticity and sensitivity to deal with this problem. An artificial planning case with a horse-shoe formed target with different opening angles surrounding a circular risk structure is studied. As evaluation functions the generalized equivalent uniform dose (EUD) and the average underdosage below and average overdosage beyond certain dose thresholds are used. A single IMRT plan is calculated for an exemplary parameter configuration. The elasticity and sensitivity of each parameter are then calculated without re-optimization, and the results are numerically verified. The results show the following. (1) elasticity can quantify the influence of a modeling parameter on the optimization result in terms of how strongly the objective function value varies under modifications of the parameter value. It also can describe how strongly the geometry of the involved planning structures affects the optimization result. (2) Based on the current parameter settings and corresponding treatment plan, sensitivity analysis can predict the optimization result for modified parameter values without re-optimization, and it can estimate the value intervals in which such predictions are valid. In conclusion, elasticity and sensitivity can provide helpful tools in inverse IMRT planning to identify the most critical parameters of an individual planning problem and to modify their values in an appropriate way

  3. The Sword of Damocles and the Biosphere

    OpenAIRE

    Cairns, John

    2011-01-01

    The tale of the sword of Damocles can be used to describe the sword hanging by a thread over humankind with the damage it is doing to the present biosphere. The sixth biosphere, or the current biosphere, is experiencing a significant reduction in species caused by human-related activities. The signs of risk have markedly increased by the signs differ considerably from one are to another, and people tend do discount global change because it is unnoticeable in their local area. If humans begin...

  4. Assessment of Lumped-Parameter Models for Rigid Footings

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Lars

    2010-01-01

    The quality of consistent lumped-parameter models of rigid footings is examined. Emphasis is put on the maximum response during excitation and the geometrical damping related to free vibrations. The optimal order of a lumped-parameter model is determined for each degree of freedom, i.e. horizontal...... and vertical translations as well as torsion and rocking, and the necessity of coupling between horizontal sliding and rocking is discussed. Most of the analyses are carried out for hexagonal footings; but in order to generalise the conclusions to a broader variety of footings, comparisons are made...... with the response of circular and square foundations....

  5. Nuclear fuel waste management - biosphere program highlights - 1978 to 1996

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zach, R.

    1997-07-01

    The biosphere program in support of the development of the disposal concept for Canadian nuclear fuel waste since 1978 is scheduled for close-out. AECL's Environmental Science Branch (ESB) was mainly responsible for work in this program. In order to preserve as much information as possible, this report highlights many of the key achievements of the program, particularly those related to the development of the BIOTRAC biosphere model and its supporting research. This model was used for the assessment and review of the disposal concept in an environmental impact statement (EIS). The report also treats highlights related to alternative models, external scientific/technical reviews, EIS feedback, and the international BIOMOVS model validation program. Furthermore, it highlights basic aspects of future modelling and research needs in relation to siting a disposal facility. In this, feedback from the various reviews and the EIS is taken into account. Appendices of the report include listings of key ESB staff involved in the program, all the scientific/technical reports and papers produced under the program, contracts let to outside agencies, and issues raised by various participants or intervenors during the EIS review. Although the report is concerned with close-out of the biosphere program, it also provides valuable information for a continuing program concerned with siting a disposal facility. One of the conclusions of the report is that such a program is essential for successfully siting such a facility. (author)

  6. Climate change decision-making: Model & parameter uncertainties explored

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dowlatabadi, H.; Kandlikar, M.; Linville, C.

    1995-12-31

    A critical aspect of climate change decision-making is uncertainties in current understanding of the socioeconomic, climatic and biogeochemical processes involved. Decision-making processes are much better informed if these uncertainties are characterized and their implications understood. Quantitative analysis of these uncertainties serve to inform decision makers about the likely outcome of policy initiatives, and help set priorities for research so that outcome ambiguities faced by the decision-makers are reduced. A family of integrated assessment models of climate change have been developed at Carnegie Mellon. These models are distinguished from other integrated assessment efforts in that they were designed from the outset to characterize and propagate parameter, model, value, and decision-rule uncertainties. The most recent of these models is ICAM 2.1. This model includes representation of the processes of demographics, economic activity, emissions, atmospheric chemistry, climate and sea level change and impacts from these changes and policies for emissions mitigation, and adaptation to change. The model has over 800 objects of which about one half are used to represent uncertainty. In this paper we show, that when considering parameter uncertainties, the relative contribution of climatic uncertainties are most important, followed by uncertainties in damage calculations, economic uncertainties and direct aerosol forcing uncertainties. When considering model structure uncertainties we find that the choice of policy is often dominated by model structure choice, rather than parameter uncertainties.

  7. The level density parameters for fermi gas model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zuang Youxiang; Wang Cuilan; Zhou Chunmei; Su Zongdi

    1986-01-01

    Nuclear level densities are crucial ingredient in the statistical models, for instance, in the calculations of the widths, cross sections, emitted particle spectra, etc. for various reaction channels. In this work 667 sets of more reliable and new experimental data are adopted, which include average level spacing D D , radiative capture width Γ γ 0 at neutron binding energy and cumulative level number N 0 at the low excitation energy. They are published during 1973 to 1983. Based on the parameters given by Gilbert-Cameon and Cook the physical quantities mentioned above are calculated. The calculated results have the deviation obviously from experimental values. In order to improve the fitting, the parameters in the G-C formula are adjusted and new set of level density parameters is obsained. The parameters is this work are more suitable to fit new measurements

  8. Biosphere scenario development. An interim report of an SKI, SSI, SKB working group

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1989-11-01

    The Swedish Nuclear Power Inspectorate and the Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co have initiated a project for the development of scenarios for the behaviour of radionuclides in high level waste following deep geological disposal. The main objective is to develop a general consensus of scenarios and conceptual models. Within the project a biosphere scenarios working group was initiated to consider specific questions of the biosphere. This report describes the results of the group's deliberations up to the end of July 1989. A methodology is presented for the development of biosphere scenarios which may be considered alongside scenarios for radionuclide behaviour in the near field and geosphere. Two major biosphere elements affecting processes in the surface environment have been recognised, climate and development. Alternative states for climate and level of development are suggested and each combination can be considered with one or more of a range of biosphere receptors, such as a river or a lake. The features, events and processes relevant to each receptor are presented. Consideration is then given to biosphere assumptions for both gradual and direct releases from the geosphere, as well as biosphere effects on the repository near field or geosphere. The amount of screening which can be done at this stage to limit the number of biosphere scenarios is small. However, considerable potential exists once more details are available for geosphere release scenarios. It may be appropriate to further develop biosphere scenarios, specific to each geosphere release scenario. It may also be appropriate to consider scenarios specifically in relation to the individual radionuclides which dominate geosphere releases. Both these possibilities could result in considerably reduced requirements for calculations

  9. Regionally Strong Feedbacks between the Atmosphere and Terrestrial Biosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Green, J. K.; Konings, A. G.; Alemohammad, S. H.; Berry, J. A.; Kolassa, J.; Lee, J. E.; Gentine, P.

    2017-12-01

    Vegetation variability modulates water and energy fluxes to the atmosphere with the potential to impact climate and weather patterns that in turn regulate vegetation dynamics. In this study, we quantify variations in the strength of biosphere-atmosphere feedbacks (influencing the hydrologic cycle) across different biomes and timescales and evaluate the ability of Earth System Models to capture them. We use remote sensing data (using Solar Induced Fluorescence as a proxy for photosynthesis) combined with a statistical Multivariate Granger Causality technique to evaluate the feedback strength and the timescale in which they occur, which is then used as a benchmark for model assessment. Our conclusions have the potential to improve climate and weather predictions and provide insight of ecohydrological processes that have regional scale impact (Green, J.K. et al. 2017). Green, Julia K., et al. Regionally strong feedbacks between the atmosphere and terrestrial biosphere. Nature Geoscience. 10, 410-414 (2017).

  10. Identifiability and error minimization of receptor model parameters with PET

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Delforge, J.; Syrota, A.; Mazoyer, B.M.

    1989-01-01

    The identifiability problem and the general framework for experimental design optimization are presented. The methodology is applied to the problem of the receptor-ligand model parameter estimation with dynamic positron emission tomography data. The first attempts to identify the model parameters from data obtained with a single tracer injection led to disappointing numerical results. The possibility of improving parameter estimation using a new experimental design combining an injection of the labelled ligand and an injection of the cold ligand (displacement experiment) has been investigated. However, this second protocol led to two very different numerical solutions and it was necessary to demonstrate which solution was biologically valid. This has been possible by using a third protocol including both a displacement and a co-injection experiment. (authors). 16 refs.; 14 figs

  11. X-Parameter Based Modelling of Polar Modulated Power Amplifiers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wang, Yelin; Nielsen, Troels Studsgaard; Sira, Daniel

    2013-01-01

    X-parameters are developed as an extension of S-parameters capable of modelling non-linear devices driven by large signals. They are suitable for devices having only radio frequency (RF) and DC ports. In a polar power amplifier (PA), phase and envelope of the input modulated signal are applied...... at separate ports and the envelope port is neither an RF nor a DC port. As a result, X-parameters may fail to characterise the effect of the envelope port excitation and consequently the polar PA. This study introduces a solution to the problem for a commercial polar PA. In this solution, the RF-phase path...... PA for simulations. The simulated error vector magnitude (EVM) and adjacent channel power ratio (ACPR) were compared with the measured data to validate the model. The maximum differences between the simulated and measured EVM and ACPR are less than 2% point and 3 dB, respectively....

  12. Joint Dynamics Modeling and Parameter Identification for Space Robot Applications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adenilson R. da Silva

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Long-term mission identification and model validation for in-flight manipulator control system in almost zero gravity with hostile space environment are extremely important for robotic applications. In this paper, a robot joint mathematical model is developed where several nonlinearities have been taken into account. In order to identify all the required system parameters, an integrated identification strategy is derived. This strategy makes use of a robust version of least-squares procedure (LS for getting the initial conditions and a general nonlinear optimization method (MCS—multilevel coordinate search—algorithm to estimate the nonlinear parameters. The approach is applied to the intelligent robot joint (IRJ experiment that was developed at DLR for utilization opportunity on the International Space Station (ISS. The results using real and simulated measurements have shown that the developed algorithm and strategy have remarkable features in identifying all the parameters with good accuracy.

  13. Governing Portable Conservation and Development Landscapes: Reconsidering Evidence in the Context of the Mbaracayú Biosphere Reserve

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elgert, Laureen

    2014-01-01

    Conservation-with-development landscapes, such as UNESCO's Man and Biosphere Reserves, differentiate between areas of "nature" and "society". In Paraguay's Mbaracayú Biosphere Reserve, as elsewhere, this model has been used to support governance that focuses on conservation in the "core area" and sustainable…

  14. The development of biosphere codes for use in assessment of the radiological impact of geological repositories for radioactive waste

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coughtrey, P.J.; Kane, P.; Thorne, M.C.

    1982-12-01

    A statement of radiological protection criteria and measures of dose, forms the preface to a review of extant biosphere codes. Consideration is given to the implementation of the codes FOODII and NEPTUN for use with SYVAC. The selection of nuclides for consideration in SYVAC is discussed. Detailed specifications are provided for biosphere model developments desirable in the longer term. (author)

  15. Prediction of interest rate using CKLS model with stochastic parameters

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ying, Khor Chia [Faculty of Computing and Informatics, Multimedia University, Jalan Multimedia, 63100 Cyberjaya, Selangor (Malaysia); Hin, Pooi Ah [Sunway University Business School, No. 5, Jalan Universiti, Bandar Sunway, 47500 Subang Jaya, Selangor (Malaysia)

    2014-06-19

    The Chan, Karolyi, Longstaff and Sanders (CKLS) model is a popular one-factor model for describing the spot interest rates. In this paper, the four parameters in the CKLS model are regarded as stochastic. The parameter vector φ{sup (j)} of four parameters at the (J+n)-th time point is estimated by the j-th window which is defined as the set consisting of the observed interest rates at the j′-th time point where j≤j′≤j+n. To model the variation of φ{sup (j)}, we assume that φ{sup (j)} depends on φ{sup (j−m)}, φ{sup (j−m+1)},…, φ{sup (j−1)} and the interest rate r{sub j+n} at the (j+n)-th time point via a four-dimensional conditional distribution which is derived from a [4(m+1)+1]-dimensional power-normal distribution. Treating the (j+n)-th time point as the present time point, we find a prediction interval for the future value r{sub j+n+1} of the interest rate at the next time point when the value r{sub j+n} of the interest rate is given. From the above four-dimensional conditional distribution, we also find a prediction interval for the future interest rate r{sub j+n+d} at the next d-th (d≥2) time point. The prediction intervals based on the CKLS model with stochastic parameters are found to have better ability of covering the observed future interest rates when compared with those based on the model with fixed parameters.

  16. Model parameters estimation and sensitivity by genetic algorithms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marseguerra, Marzio; Zio, Enrico; Podofillini, Luca

    2003-01-01

    In this paper we illustrate the possibility of extracting qualitative information on the importance of the parameters of a model in the course of a Genetic Algorithms (GAs) optimization procedure for the estimation of such parameters. The Genetic Algorithms' search of the optimal solution is performed according to procedures that resemble those of natural selection and genetics: an initial population of alternative solutions evolves within the search space through the four fundamental operations of parent selection, crossover, replacement, and mutation. During the search, the algorithm examines a large amount of solution points which possibly carries relevant information on the underlying model characteristics. A possible utilization of this information amounts to create and update an archive with the set of best solutions found at each generation and then to analyze the evolution of the statistics of the archive along the successive generations. From this analysis one can retrieve information regarding the speed of convergence and stabilization of the different control (decision) variables of the optimization problem. In this work we analyze the evolution strategy followed by a GA in its search for the optimal solution with the aim of extracting information on the importance of the control (decision) variables of the optimization with respect to the sensitivity of the objective function. The study refers to a GA search for optimal estimates of the effective parameters in a lumped nuclear reactor model of literature. The supporting observation is that, as most optimization procedures do, the GA search evolves towards convergence in such a way to stabilize first the most important parameters of the model and later those which influence little the model outputs. In this sense, besides estimating efficiently the parameters values, the optimization approach also allows us to provide a qualitative ranking of their importance in contributing to the model output. The

  17. Revised Parameters for the AMOEBA Polarizable Atomic Multipole Water Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laury, Marie L; Wang, Lee-Ping; Pande, Vijay S; Head-Gordon, Teresa; Ponder, Jay W

    2015-07-23

    A set of improved parameters for the AMOEBA polarizable atomic multipole water model is developed. An automated procedure, ForceBalance, is used to adjust model parameters to enforce agreement with ab initio-derived results for water clusters and experimental data for a variety of liquid phase properties across a broad temperature range. The values reported here for the new AMOEBA14 water model represent a substantial improvement over the previous AMOEBA03 model. The AMOEBA14 model accurately predicts the temperature of maximum density and qualitatively matches the experimental density curve across temperatures from 249 to 373 K. Excellent agreement is observed for the AMOEBA14 model in comparison to experimental properties as a function of temperature, including the second virial coefficient, enthalpy of vaporization, isothermal compressibility, thermal expansion coefficient, and dielectric constant. The viscosity, self-diffusion constant, and surface tension are also well reproduced. In comparison to high-level ab initio results for clusters of 2-20 water molecules, the AMOEBA14 model yields results similar to AMOEBA03 and the direct polarization iAMOEBA models. With advances in computing power, calibration data, and optimization techniques, we recommend the use of the AMOEBA14 water model for future studies employing a polarizable water model.

  18. Parameter sensitivity analysis of a lumped-parameter model of a chain of lymphangions in series.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jamalian, Samira; Bertram, Christopher D; Richardson, William J; Moore, James E

    2013-12-01

    Any disruption of the lymphatic system due to trauma or injury can lead to edema. There is no effective cure for lymphedema, partly because predictive knowledge of lymphatic system reactions to interventions is lacking. A well-developed model of the system could greatly improve our understanding of its function. Lymphangions, defined as the vessel segment between two valves, are the individual pumping units. Based on our previous lumped-parameter model of a chain of lymphangions, this study aimed to identify the parameters that affect the system output the most using a sensitivity analysis. The system was highly sensitive to minimum valve resistance, such that variations in this parameter caused an order-of-magnitude change in time-average flow rate for certain values of imposed pressure difference. Average flow rate doubled when contraction frequency was increased within its physiological range. Optimum lymphangion length was found to be some 13-14.5 diameters. A peak of time-average flow rate occurred when transmural pressure was such that the pressure-diameter loop for active contractions was centered near maximum passive vessel compliance. Increasing the number of lymphangions in the chain improved the pumping in the presence of larger adverse pressure differences. For a given pressure difference, the optimal number of lymphangions increased with the total vessel length. These results indicate that further experiments to estimate valve resistance more accurately are necessary. The existence of an optimal value of transmural pressure may provide additional guidelines for increasing pumping in areas affected by edema.

  19. Investigation of land use effects on Nash model parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niazi, Faegheh; Fakheri Fard, Ahmad; Nourani, Vahid; Goodrich, David; Gupta, Hoshin

    2015-04-01

    Flood forecasting is of great importance in hydrologic planning, hydraulic structure design, water resources management and sustainable designs like flood control and management. Nash's instantaneous unit hydrograph is frequently used for simulating hydrological response in natural watersheds. Urban hydrology is gaining more attention due to population increases and associated construction escalation. Rapid development of urban areas affects the hydrologic processes of watersheds by decreasing soil permeability, flood base flow, lag time and increase in flood volume, peak runoff rates and flood frequency. In this study the influence of urbanization on the significant parameters of the Nash model have been investigated. These parameters were calculated using three popular methods (i.e. moment, root mean square error and random sampling data generation), in a small watershed consisting of one natural sub-watershed which drains into a residentially developed sub-watershed in the city of Sierra Vista, Arizona. The results indicated that for all three methods, the lag time, which is product of Nash parameters "K" and "n", in the natural sub-watershed is greater than the developed one. This logically implies more storage and/or attenuation in the natural sub-watershed. The median K and n parameters derived from the three methods using calibration events were tested via a set of verification events. The results indicated that all the three method have acceptable accuracy in hydrograph simulation. The CDF curves and histograms of the parameters clearly show the difference of the Nash parameter values between the natural and developed sub-watersheds. Some specific upper and lower percentile values of the median of the generated parameters (i.e. 10, 20 and 30 %) were analyzed to future investigates the derived parameters. The model was sensitive to variations in the value of the uncertain K and n parameter. Changes in n are smaller than K in both sub-watersheds indicating

  20. Revised models and genetic parameter estimates for production and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Genetic parameters for production and reproduction traits in the Elsenburg Dormer sheep stud were estimated using records of 11743 lambs born between 1943 and 2002. An animal model with direct and maternal additive, maternal permanent and temporary environmental effects was fitted for traits considered traits of the ...

  1. Transformations among CE–CVM model parameters for ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    In the development of thermodynamic databases for multicomponent systems using the cluster expansion–cluster variation methods, we need to have a consistent procedure for expressing the model parameters (CECs) of a higher order system in terms of those of the lower order subsystems and to an independent set of ...

  2. Parameter Estimation for a Computable General Equilibrium Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arndt, Channing; Robinson, Sherman; Tarp, Finn

    We introduce a maximum entropy approach to parameter estimation for computable general equilibrium (CGE) models. The approach applies information theory to estimating a system of nonlinear simultaneous equations. It has a number of advantages. First, it imposes all general equilibrium constraints...

  3. Comparison of parameter estimation algorithms in hydrological modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Blasone, Roberta-Serena; Madsen, Henrik; Rosbjerg, Dan

    2006-01-01

    for these types of models, although at a more expensive computational cost. The main purpose of this study is to investigate the performance of a global and a local parameter optimization algorithm, respectively, the Shuffled Complex Evolution (SCE) algorithm and the gradient-based Gauss...

  4. Parameter Estimation for a Computable General Equilibrium Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arndt, Channing; Robinson, Sherman; Tarp, Finn

    2002-01-01

    We introduce a maximum entropy approach to parameter estimation for computable general equilibrium (CGE) models. The approach applies information theory to estimating a system of non-linear simultaneous equations. It has a number of advantages. First, it imposes all general equilibrium constraints...

  5. Constraint on Parameters of Inverse Compton Scattering Model for ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    J. Astrophys. Astr. (2011) 32, 299–300 c Indian Academy of Sciences. Constraint on Parameters of Inverse Compton Scattering Model for PSR B2319+60. H. G. Wang. ∗. & M. Lv. Center for Astrophysics,Guangzhou University, Guangzhou, China. ∗ e-mail: cosmic008@yahoo.com.cn. Abstract. Using the multifrequency radio ...

  6. Living microbial ecosystems within the active zone of catagenesis: Implications for feeding the deep biosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horsfield, B.; Schenk, H. J.; Zink, K.; Ondrak, R.; Dieckmann, V.; Kallmeyer, J.; Mangelsdorf, K.; di Primio, R.; Wilkes, H.; Parkes, R. J.; Fry, J.; Cragg, B.

    2006-06-01

    Earth's largest reactive carbon pool, marine sedimentary organic matter, becomes increasingly recalcitrant during burial, making it almost inaccessible as a substrate for microorganisms, and thereby limiting metabolic activity in the deep biosphere. Because elevated temperature acting over geological time leads to the massive thermal breakdown of the organic matter into volatiles, including petroleum, the question arises whether microorganisms can directly utilize these maturation products as a substrate. While migrated thermogenic fluids are known to sustain microbial consortia in shallow sediments, an in situ coupling of abiotic generation and microbial utilization has not been demonstrated. Here we show, using a combination of basin modelling, kinetic modelling, geomicrobiology and biogeochemistry, that microorganisms inhabit the active generation zone in the Nankai Trough, offshore Japan. Three sites from ODP Leg 190 have been evaluated, namely 1173, 1174 and 1177, drilled in nearly undeformed Quaternary and Tertiar