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Sample records for biosphere hydrological model

  1. WEB-DHM: A distributed biosphere hydrological model developed by coupling a simple biosphere scheme with a hillslope hydrological model

    Science.gov (United States)

    The coupling of land surface models and hydrological models potentially improves the land surface representation, benefiting both the streamflow prediction capabilities as well as providing improved estimates of water and energy fluxes into the atmosphere. In this study, the simple biosphere model 2...

  2. Frozen soil parameterization in a distributed biosphere hydrological model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Wang

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available In this study, a frozen soil parameterization has been modified and incorporated into a distributed biosphere hydrological model (WEB-DHM. The WEB-DHM with the frozen scheme was then rigorously evaluated in a small cold area, the Binngou watershed, against the in-situ observations from the WATER (Watershed Allied Telemetry Experimental Research. First, by using the original WEB-DHM without the frozen scheme, the land surface parameters and two van Genuchten parameters were optimized using the observed surface radiation fluxes and the soil moistures at upper layers (5, 10 and 20 cm depths at the DY station in July. Second, by using the WEB-DHM with the frozen scheme, two frozen soil parameters were calibrated using the observed soil temperature at 5 cm depth at the DY station from 21 November 2007 to 20 April 2008; while the other soil hydraulic parameters were optimized by the calibration of the discharges at the basin outlet in July and August that covers the annual largest flood peak in 2008. With these calibrated parameters, the WEB-DHM with the frozen scheme was then used for a yearlong validation from 21 November 2007 to 20 November 2008. Results showed that the WEB-DHM with the frozen scheme has given much better performance than the WEB-DHM without the frozen scheme, in the simulations of soil moisture profile at the cold regions catchment and the discharges at the basin outlet in the yearlong simulation.

  3. Development of a distributed biosphere hydrological model and its evaluation with the Southern Great Plains Experiments (SGP97 and SGP99)

    Science.gov (United States)

    A distributed biosphere hydrological model, the so called water and energy budget-based distributed hydrological model (WEB-DHM), has been developed by fully coupling a biosphere scheme (SiB2) with a geomorphology-based hydrological model (GBHM). SiB2 describes the transfer of turbulent fluxes (ener...

  4. Modelling of present and future hydrology and solute transport at Forsmark. SR-Site Biosphere

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bosson, Emma; Sassner, Mona; Sabel, Ulrika; Gustafsson, Lars-Goeran

    2010-10-01

    Radioactive waste from nuclear power plants in Sweden is managed by the Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co, SKB. SKB has performed site investigations at two different locations in Sweden, referred to as the Forsmark and Laxemar-Simpevarp areas, with the objective of siting a final repository for high-level radioactive waste. In 2009 a decision was made to focus on the Forsmark site. This decision was based on a large amount of empirical evidence suggesting Forsmark to be more suitable for a geological repository /SKB 2010b/. This report presents model results of numerical flow and transport modelling of surface water and near-surface groundwater at the Forsmark site for present and future conditions. Both temperate and periglacial climates have been simulated. Also different locations of the shoreline have been applied to the model, as well as different models of vegetation and Quaternary deposits. The modelling was performed using the modelling tool MIKE SHE and was based on the SDM-Site Forsmark MIKE SHE model (presented by Bosson et al. in SKB report R-08-09). The present work is a part of the biosphere modelling performed for the SR-Site safety assessment. The Forsmark area has a flat, small-scale topography. The study area is almost entirely below 20 m.a.s.l. (metres above sea level). There is a strong correlation between the topography of the ground surface and the ground water level in the Quaternary deposits (QD); thus, the surface water divides and the groundwater divides for the QD can be assumed to coincide. No major water courses flow through the catchment. Small brooks, which often dry out in the summer, connect the different sub-catchments with each other. The main lakes in the area, Lake Bolundsfjaerden, Lake Fiskarfjaerden, Lake Gaellsbotraesket and Lake Eckarfjaerden, all have sizes of less than one km2. The lakes are in general shallow. Approximately 70% of the catchment areas are covered by forest. Agricultural land is only present in

  5. Modelling of present and future hydrology and solute transport at Forsmark. SR-Site Biosphere

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bosson, Emma (Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co., Stocholm (Sweden)); Sassner, Mona; Sabel, Ulrika; Gustafsson, Lars-Goeran (DHI Sverige AB (Sweden))

    2010-10-15

    Radioactive waste from nuclear power plants in Sweden is managed by the Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co, SKB. SKB has performed site investigations at two different locations in Sweden, referred to as the Forsmark and Laxemar-Simpevarp areas, with the objective of siting a final repository for high-level radioactive waste. In 2009 a decision was made to focus on the Forsmark site. This decision was based on a large amount of empirical evidence suggesting Forsmark to be more suitable for a geological repository /SKB 2010b/. This report presents model results of numerical flow and transport modelling of surface water and near-surface groundwater at the Forsmark site for present and future conditions. Both temperate and periglacial climates have been simulated. Also different locations of the shoreline have been applied to the model, as well as different models of vegetation and Quaternary deposits. The modelling was performed using the modelling tool MIKE SHE and was based on the SDM-Site Forsmark MIKE SHE model (presented by Bosson et al. in SKB report R-08-09). The present work is a part of the biosphere modelling performed for the SR-Site safety assessment. The Forsmark area has a flat, small-scale topography. The study area is almost entirely below 20 m.a.s.l. (metres above sea level). There is a strong correlation between the topography of the ground surface and the ground water level in the Quaternary deposits (QD); thus, the surface water divides and the groundwater divides for the QD can be assumed to coincide. No major water courses flow through the catchment. Small brooks, which often dry out in the summer, connect the different sub-catchments with each other. The main lakes in the area, Lake Bolundsfjaerden, Lake Fiskarfjaerden, Lake Gaellsbotraesket and Lake Eckarfjaerden, all have sizes of less than one km2. The lakes are in general shallow. Approximately 70% of the catchment areas are covered by forest. Agricultural land is only present in

  6. Biosphere Model Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    D. W. Wu

    2003-07-16

    The purpose of this report is to document the biosphere model, the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain, Nevada (ERMYN), which describes radionuclide transport processes in the biosphere and associated human exposure that may arise as the result of radionuclide release from the geologic repository at Yucca Mountain. The biosphere model is one of the process models that support the Yucca Mountain Project (YMP) Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) for the license application (LA), the TSPA-LA. The ERMYN model provides the capability of performing human radiation dose assessments. This report documents the biosphere model, which includes: (1) Describing the reference biosphere, human receptor, exposure scenarios, and primary radionuclides for each exposure scenario (Section 6.1); (2) Developing a biosphere conceptual model using site-specific features, events, and processes (FEPs), the reference biosphere, the human receptor, and assumptions (Section 6.2 and Section 6.3); (3) Building a mathematical model using the biosphere conceptual model and published biosphere models (Sections 6.4 and 6.5); (4) Summarizing input parameters for the mathematical model, including the uncertainty associated with input values (Section 6.6); (5) Identifying improvements in the ERMYN model compared with the model used in previous biosphere modeling (Section 6.7); (6) Constructing an ERMYN implementation tool (model) based on the biosphere mathematical model using GoldSim stochastic simulation software (Sections 6.8 and 6.9); (7) Verifying the ERMYN model by comparing output from the software with hand calculations to ensure that the GoldSim implementation is correct (Section 6.10); and (8) Validating the ERMYN model by corroborating it with published biosphere models; comparing conceptual models, mathematical models, and numerical results (Section 7).

  7. Biosphere Model Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    M. A. Wasiolek

    2003-10-27

    The purpose of this report is to document the biosphere model, the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain, Nevada (ERMYN), which describes radionuclide transport processes in the biosphere and associated human exposure that may arise as the result of radionuclide release from the geologic repository at Yucca Mountain. The biosphere model is one of the process models that support the Yucca Mountain Project (YMP) Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) for the license application (LA), the TSPA-LA. The ERMYN model provides the capability of performing human radiation dose assessments. This report documents the biosphere model, which includes: (1) Describing the reference biosphere, human receptor, exposure scenarios, and primary radionuclides for each exposure scenario (Section 6.1); (2) Developing a biosphere conceptual model using site-specific features, events, and processes (FEPs), the reference biosphere, the human receptor, and assumptions (Section 6.2 and Section 6.3); (3) Building a mathematical model using the biosphere conceptual model and published biosphere models (Sections 6.4 and 6.5); (4) Summarizing input parameters for the mathematical model, including the uncertainty associated with input values (Section 6.6); (5) Identifying improvements in the ERMYN model compared with the model used in previous biosphere modeling (Section 6.7); (6) Constructing an ERMYN implementation tool (model) based on the biosphere mathematical model using GoldSim stochastic simulation software (Sections 6.8 and 6.9); (7) Verifying the ERMYN model by comparing output from the software with hand calculations to ensure that the GoldSim implementation is correct (Section 6.10); and (8) Validating the ERMYN model by corroborating it with published biosphere models; comparing conceptual models, mathematical models, and numerical results (Section 7).

  8. Biosphere Model Report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    D. W. Wu

    2003-01-01

    The purpose of this report is to document the biosphere model, the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain, Nevada (ERMYN), which describes radionuclide transport processes in the biosphere and associated human exposure that may arise as the result of radionuclide release from the geologic repository at Yucca Mountain. The biosphere model is one of the process models that support the Yucca Mountain Project (YMP) Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) for the license application (LA), the TSPA-LA. The ERMYN model provides the capability of performing human radiation dose assessments. This report documents the biosphere model, which includes: (1) Describing the reference biosphere, human receptor, exposure scenarios, and primary radionuclides for each exposure scenario (Section 6.1); (2) Developing a biosphere conceptual model using site-specific features, events, and processes (FEPs), the reference biosphere, the human receptor, and assumptions (Section 6.2 and Section 6.3); (3) Building a mathematical model using the biosphere conceptual model and published biosphere models (Sections 6.4 and 6.5); (4) Summarizing input parameters for the mathematical model, including the uncertainty associated with input values (Section 6.6); (5) Identifying improvements in the ERMYN model compared with the model used in previous biosphere modeling (Section 6.7); (6) Constructing an ERMYN implementation tool (model) based on the biosphere mathematical model using GoldSim stochastic simulation software (Sections 6.8 and 6.9); (7) Verifying the ERMYN model by comparing output from the software with hand calculations to ensure that the GoldSim implementation is correct (Section 6.10); and (8) Validating the ERMYN model by corroborating it with published biosphere models; comparing conceptual models, mathematical models, and numerical results (Section 7)

  9. Biosphere Model Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    D.W. Wu; A.J. Smith

    2004-11-08

    The purpose of this report is to document the biosphere model, the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain, Nevada (ERMYN), which describes radionuclide transport processes in the biosphere and associated human exposure that may arise as the result of radionuclide release from the geologic repository at Yucca Mountain. The biosphere model is one of the process models that support the Yucca Mountain Project (YMP) Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) for the license application (LA), TSPA-LA. The ERMYN provides the capability of performing human radiation dose assessments. This report documents the biosphere model, which includes: (1) Describing the reference biosphere, human receptor, exposure scenarios, and primary radionuclides for each exposure scenario (Section 6.1); (2) Developing a biosphere conceptual model using site-specific features, events, and processes (FEPs) (Section 6.2), the reference biosphere (Section 6.1.1), the human receptor (Section 6.1.2), and approximations (Sections 6.3.1.4 and 6.3.2.4); (3) Building a mathematical model using the biosphere conceptual model (Section 6.3) and published biosphere models (Sections 6.4 and 6.5); (4) Summarizing input parameters for the mathematical model, including the uncertainty associated with input values (Section 6.6); (5) Identifying improvements in the ERMYN compared with the model used in previous biosphere modeling (Section 6.7); (6) Constructing an ERMYN implementation tool (model) based on the biosphere mathematical model using GoldSim stochastic simulation software (Sections 6.8 and 6.9); (7) Verifying the ERMYN by comparing output from the software with hand calculations to ensure that the GoldSim implementation is correct (Section 6.10); (8) Validating the ERMYN by corroborating it with published biosphere models; comparing conceptual models, mathematical models, and numerical results (Section 7).

  10. Biosphere Model Report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    D.W. Wu; A.J. Smith

    2004-01-01

    The purpose of this report is to document the biosphere model, the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain, Nevada (ERMYN), which describes radionuclide transport processes in the biosphere and associated human exposure that may arise as the result of radionuclide release from the geologic repository at Yucca Mountain. The biosphere model is one of the process models that support the Yucca Mountain Project (YMP) Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) for the license application (LA), TSPA-LA. The ERMYN provides the capability of performing human radiation dose assessments. This report documents the biosphere model, which includes: (1) Describing the reference biosphere, human receptor, exposure scenarios, and primary radionuclides for each exposure scenario (Section 6.1); (2) Developing a biosphere conceptual model using site-specific features, events, and processes (FEPs) (Section 6.2), the reference biosphere (Section 6.1.1), the human receptor (Section 6.1.2), and approximations (Sections 6.3.1.4 and 6.3.2.4); (3) Building a mathematical model using the biosphere conceptual model (Section 6.3) and published biosphere models (Sections 6.4 and 6.5); (4) Summarizing input parameters for the mathematical model, including the uncertainty associated with input values (Section 6.6); (5) Identifying improvements in the ERMYN compared with the model used in previous biosphere modeling (Section 6.7); (6) Constructing an ERMYN implementation tool (model) based on the biosphere mathematical model using GoldSim stochastic simulation software (Sections 6.8 and 6.9); (7) Verifying the ERMYN by comparing output from the software with hand calculations to ensure that the GoldSim implementation is correct (Section 6.10); (8) Validating the ERMYN by corroborating it with published biosphere models; comparing conceptual models, mathematical models, and numerical results (Section 7)

  11. Biosphere Process Model Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    J. Schmitt

    2000-05-25

    To evaluate the postclosure performance of a potential monitored geologic repository at Yucca Mountain, a Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) will be conducted. Nine Process Model Reports (PMRs), including this document, are being developed to summarize the technical basis for each of the process models supporting the TSPA model. These reports cover the following areas: (1) Integrated Site Model; (2) Unsaturated Zone Flow and Transport; (3) Near Field Environment; (4) Engineered Barrier System Degradation, Flow, and Transport; (5) Waste Package Degradation; (6) Waste Form Degradation; (7) Saturated Zone Flow and Transport; (8) Biosphere; and (9) Disruptive Events. Analysis/Model Reports (AMRs) contain the more detailed technical information used to support TSPA and the PMRs. The AMRs consists of data, analyses, models, software, and supporting documentation that will be used to defend the applicability of each process model for evaluating the postclosure performance of the potential Yucca Mountain repository system. This documentation will ensure the traceability of information from its source through its ultimate use in the TSPA-Site Recommendation (SR) and in the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) analysis processes. The objective of the Biosphere PMR is to summarize (1) the development of the biosphere model, and (2) the Biosphere Dose Conversion Factors (BDCFs) developed for use in TSPA. The Biosphere PMR does not present or summarize estimates of potential radiation doses to human receptors. Dose calculations are performed as part of TSPA and will be presented in the TSPA documentation. The biosphere model is a component of the process to evaluate postclosure repository performance and regulatory compliance for a potential monitored geologic repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. The biosphere model describes those exposure pathways in the biosphere by which radionuclides released from a potential repository could reach a human receptor

  12. Biosphere Process Model Report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schmitt, J.

    2000-01-01

    To evaluate the postclosure performance of a potential monitored geologic repository at Yucca Mountain, a Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) will be conducted. Nine Process Model Reports (PMRs), including this document, are being developed to summarize the technical basis for each of the process models supporting the TSPA model. These reports cover the following areas: (1) Integrated Site Model; (2) Unsaturated Zone Flow and Transport; (3) Near Field Environment; (4) Engineered Barrier System Degradation, Flow, and Transport; (5) Waste Package Degradation; (6) Waste Form Degradation; (7) Saturated Zone Flow and Transport; (8) Biosphere; and (9) Disruptive Events. Analysis/Model Reports (AMRs) contain the more detailed technical information used to support TSPA and the PMRs. The AMRs consists of data, analyses, models, software, and supporting documentation that will be used to defend the applicability of each process model for evaluating the postclosure performance of the potential Yucca Mountain repository system. This documentation will ensure the traceability of information from its source through its ultimate use in the TSPA-Site Recommendation (SR) and in the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) analysis processes. The objective of the Biosphere PMR is to summarize (1) the development of the biosphere model, and (2) the Biosphere Dose Conversion Factors (BDCFs) developed for use in TSPA. The Biosphere PMR does not present or summarize estimates of potential radiation doses to human receptors. Dose calculations are performed as part of TSPA and will be presented in the TSPA documentation. The biosphere model is a component of the process to evaluate postclosure repository performance and regulatory compliance for a potential monitored geologic repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. The biosphere model describes those exposure pathways in the biosphere by which radionuclides released from a potential repository could reach a human receptor

  13. Safety case for the disposal of spent nuclear fuel at Olkiluoto. Surface and near-surface hydrological modelling in the biosphere assessment BSA-2012

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Karvonen, T.

    2013-05-01

    The Finnish nuclear waste disposal company, Posiva Oy, is planning an underground repository for spent nuclear fuel to be constructed on the island of Olkiluoto on the south-west coast of Finland. This study is part of the biosphere assessment (BSA-2012) within the safety case for the repository. The surface hydrological modelling described in this report is aimed at providing link between radionuclide transport in the geosphere and in the biosphere systems. The SVAT-model and Olkiluoto site scale surface hydrological model were calibrated and validated in the present day conditions using the input data provided by the Olkiluoto Monitoring Programme (OMO). During the next 10 000 years the terrain and ecosystem development is to a large extent driven by the postglacial crustal uplift. UNTAMO is a GIS toolbox developed for simulating land-uplift driven or other changes in the biosphere. All the spatial and temporal input data (excluding meteorological data) needed in the surface hydrological modelling were provided by the UNTAMO toolbox. The specific outputs given by UNTAMO toolbox are time-dependent evolution of the biosphere objects. They are continuous and sufficiently homogeneous sub-areas of the modelled area that could potentially receive radionuclides released from the repository. Possible ecosystem types for biosphere objects are coast, lake, river, forest, cropland, pasture and wetland. The primary goal of this study was to compute vertical and horizontal water fluxes in the biosphere objects. These data will be used in the biosphere radionuclide transport calculations. The method adopted here is based on calculating average vertical and horizontal fluxes for biosphere objects from the results of the full 3D-model. It was not necessary to develop any simplified hydrological model for the biosphere objects. This report includes modelling results from for the Reference Case (present day climate) and Terr M axAgri Case (maximum extent of agricultural areas and

  14. Biosphere Model Report, Errata 1

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    M. Wasolek

    2003-09-18

    The purpose of this report is to document the biosphere model, the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain, Nevada (ERMYN), which describes radionuclide transport processes in the biosphere and associated human exposure that may arise as the result of radionuclide release from the geologic repository at Yucca Mountain. The biosphere model is one of the process models that support the Yucca Mountain Project (YMP) Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) for the license application (LA), the TSPA-LA. The ERMYN model provides the capability of performing human radiation dose assessments. This report documents the biosphere model, which includes: (1) Describing the reference biosphere, human receptor, exposure scenarios, and primary radionuclides for each exposure scenario (Section 6.1); (2) Developing a biosphere conceptual model using site-specific features, events, and processes (FEPs), the reference biosphere, the human receptor, and assumptions (Section 6.2 and Section 6.3); (3) Building a mathematical model using the biosphere conceptual model and published biosphere models (Sections 6.4 and 6.5); (4) Summarizing input parameters for the mathematical model, including the uncertainty associated with input values (Section 6.6); (5) Identifying improvements in the ERMYN model compared with the model used in previous biosphere modeling (Section 6.7); (6) Constructing an ERMYN implementation tool (model) based on the biosphere mathematical model using GoldSim stochastic simulation software (Sections 6.8 and 6.9); (7) Verifying the ERMYN model by comparing output from the software with hand calculations to ensure that the GoldSim implementation is correct (Section 6.10); (8) Validating the ERMYN model by corroborating it with published biosphere models; comparing conceptual models, mathematical models, and numerical results (Section 7).

  15. Biosphere Model Report, Errata 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wasolek, M.

    2003-01-01

    The purpose of this report is to document the biosphere model, the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain, Nevada (ERMYN), which describes radionuclide transport processes in the biosphere and associated human exposure that may arise as the result of radionuclide release from the geologic repository at Yucca Mountain. The biosphere model is one of the process models that support the Yucca Mountain Project (YMP) Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) for the license application (LA), the TSPA-LA. The ERMYN model provides the capability of performing human radiation dose assessments. This report documents the biosphere model, which includes: (1) Describing the reference biosphere, human receptor, exposure scenarios, and primary radionuclides for each exposure scenario (Section 6.1); (2) Developing a biosphere conceptual model using site-specific features, events, and processes (FEPs), the reference biosphere, the human receptor, and assumptions (Section 6.2 and Section 6.3); (3) Building a mathematical model using the biosphere conceptual model and published biosphere models (Sections 6.4 and 6.5); (4) Summarizing input parameters for the mathematical model, including the uncertainty associated with input values (Section 6.6); (5) Identifying improvements in the ERMYN model compared with the model used in previous biosphere modeling (Section 6.7); (6) Constructing an ERMYN implementation tool (model) based on the biosphere mathematical model using GoldSim stochastic simulation software (Sections 6.8 and 6.9); (7) Verifying the ERMYN model by comparing output from the software with hand calculations to ensure that the GoldSim implementation is correct (Section 6.10); (8) Validating the ERMYN model by corroborating it with published biosphere models; comparing conceptual models, mathematical models, and numerical results (Section 7)

  16. Solid phase evolution in the Biosphere 2 hillslope experiment as predicted by modeling of hydrologic and geochemical fluxes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Dontsova

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available A reactive transport geochemical modeling study was conducted to help predict the mineral transformations occurring over a ten year time-scale that are expected to impact soil hydraulic properties in the Biosphere 2 (B2 synthetic hillslope experiment. The modeling sought to predict the rate and extent of weathering of a granular basalt (selected for hillslope construction as a function of climatic drivers, and to assess the feedback effects of such weathering processes on the hydraulic properties of the hillslope. Flow vectors were imported from HYDRUS into a reactive transport code, CrunchFlow2007, which was then used to model mineral weathering coupled to reactive solute transport. Associated particle size evolution was translated into changes in saturated hydraulic conductivity using Rosetta software. We found that flow characteristics, including velocity and saturation, strongly influenced the predicted extent of incongruent mineral weathering and neo-phase precipitation on the hillslope. Results were also highly sensitive to specific surface areas of the soil media, consistent with surface reaction controls on dissolution. Effects of fluid flow on weathering resulted in significant differences in the prediction of soil particle size distributions, which should feedback to alter hillslope hydraulic conductivities.

  17. Monitoring Hydrological Patterns of Temporary Lakes Using Remote Sensing and Machine Learning Models: Case Study of La Mancha Húmeda Biosphere Reserve in Central Spain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carolina Doña

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available The Biosphere Reserve of La Mancha Húmeda is a wetland-rich area located in central Spain. This reserve comprises a set of temporary lakes, often saline, where water level fluctuates seasonally. Water inflows come mainly from direct precipitation and runoff of small lake watersheds. Most of these lakes lack surface outlets and behave as endorheic systems, where water withdrawal is mainly due to evaporation, causing salt accumulation in the lake beds. Remote sensing was used to estimate the temporal variation of the flooded area in these lakes and their associated hydrological patterns related to the seasonality of precipitation and evapotranspiration. Landsat 7 ETM+ satellite images for the reference period 2013–2015 were jointly used with ground-truth datasets. Several inverse modeling methods, such as two-band and multispectral indices, single-band threshold, classification methods, artificial neural network, support vector machine and genetic programming, were applied to retrieve information on the variation of the flooded areas. Results were compared to ground-truth data, and the classification errors were evaluated by means of the kappa coefficient. Comparative analyses demonstrated that the genetic programming approach yielded the best results, with a kappa value of 0.98 and a total error of omission-commission of 2%. The dependence of the variations in the water-covered area on precipitation and evaporation was also investigated. The results show the potential of the tested techniques to monitor the hydrological patterns of temporary lakes in semiarid areas, which might be useful for management strategy-linked lake conservation and specifically to accomplish the goals of both the European Water Framework Directive and the Habitats Directive.

  18. A simplified biosphere model for global climate studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xue, Y.; Sellers, P. J.; Kinter, J. L.; Shukla, J.

    1991-01-01

    A comprehensive analysis of the simple biosphere model (SIB) of Sellers et al. (1986) is performed in an effort to bridge the gap between the typical hydrological treatment of the land surface biosphere and the conventional general circulation model treatment, which is specified through a single parameter. Approximations are developed that stimulate the effects of reduced soil moisture more simply, maintaining the essence of the biophysical concepts utilized in SIB. Comparing the reduced parameter biosphere with those from the original formulation in a GCM and a zero-dimensional model shows the simplified version to reproduce the original results quite closely.

  19. Biosphere modeling for HLW disposal in Japan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Naito, Morimasa

    2001-01-01

    Concept of Reference Biosphere is defined by 'the set of assumptions and hypotheses that is necessary to provide a consistent basis for calculations of the radiological impact arising from long-term releases of repository-derived radionuclides into the biosphere'. Geological environment and biosphere interface (GBI) is the place having the high probability of introduction of radioactive nuclides to biosphere by groundwater. Reference biosphere methodology, GBI, basic models, assessment context, assumptions concerning the surface environment for the biosphere assessment, nuclides migration process, interaction matrix showing radionuclide transport pathways for biosphere modeling, conceptual model for exposure modes and pathways for each exposure group in the biosphere assessment are explained. Response of the biosphere assessment model is steady, unit flux input (1 Bq/y) of different nuclides (farming exposure group). The dose per unit input of agriculture group is 1 to 3 figures larger than that of other two fisheries groups in the case of river and coastal environment except Po-210. We can calculate easily the dose by determining the dose conversion factors derived from different GBI models. Comparison of flux to dose conversion factors derived from different GBI models is effective to know the properties of each model, process and importance of data. (S.Y.)

  20. Biosphere models for deep waste disposal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Olyslaegers, G.

    2005-01-01

    The management of the radioactive waste requires the implementation of disposal systems that ensure an adequate degree of isolation of the radioactivity from man and the environment. Because there are still a lot of uncertainties and a lack of consensus with respect to the importance of the exposure pathways of man, a project BioMoSA (Biosphere Models for Safety Assessment) was elaborated in the Fifth Framework Programme of EURATOM). It aimed at improving the scientific basis for the application of biosphere models in the framework of long-term safety studies for radioactive waste disposal facilities. The section radiological evaluations of SCK-CEN took part in the BioMoSA project. n the BioMoSA project, the reference biosphere methodology developed in the IAEA programme BIOMASS (Biosphere Modelling and Assessment methods) is implemented). We used this methodology in order to increase the transparency of biosphere modelling; t evaluate the importance of the different radionuclides and pathways, and to enhance public confidence in the assessment of potential radiological dose to population groups far into the future. Five European locations, covering a wide range of environmental and agricultural conditions are described and characterised. Each participant developed a specific biosphere model for their site. In order to achieve a consistency in this model derivation, a staged approach has been followed. Successively the biosphere is described and conceptual, mathematical and numerical models are constructed. For each of the locations site-specific parameters are selected. In the project, we had the specific task to make a comparison between the model results generated by the different participants. Results from these studies are presented and discussed

  1. Integrated Biosphere Simulator Model (IBIS), Version 2.5

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — ABSTRACT: The Integrated Biosphere Simulator (or IBIS) is designed to be a comprehensive model of the terrestrial biosphere. Tthe model represents a wide range of...

  2. Integrated Biosphere Simulator Model (IBIS), Version 2.5

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Integrated Biosphere Simulator (or IBIS) is designed to be a comprehensive model of the terrestrial biosphere. Tthe model represents a wide range of processes,...

  3. Comparison of biospheric models of radionuclides transfer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garcia-Olivares, A.; Carrasco, E.

    1992-01-01

    The international BIOMOVS A4 exercise has made possible that a set of biospheric transfer models could predict the daily radionuclide concentration in soils, forage and some animal products (cow milk and beef) after the Chernobyl accident. The aim was to compare these predictions with experimental results in 13 locations around the world. The data provided were essentially the daily air contamination and precipitation and some site-dependent parameters. It was a blind test, the locations and experimental measures were not revealed in advance. Twenty-three models (quasi-steady state and time-dependent models) were involved in the study. In this paper an explicit criterion has been used in order to select the models that better fitted the experimental results. In nine selected locations a comparative analysis between these models has been carried out for obtaining the structural and parametric coincidences that could explain their relatively good performance. The first evidence obtained has been that a wide set of models were able to predict the order of magnitude of the nuclides time-integrated concentrations in several important biospheric comportments. But only a few models, all of them with a 'dynamical' structure, fitted the daily behavior with the reasonable agreement. The dynamical structure of the five most successful models at predicting for Caesium 137 (CIRCLE, ECOSYS, PATHWAY, PRYMA and RAGTIME) shows some common patterns that may be relevant for a better modelling of nuclear accident scenarios. (author)

  4. Agricultural and Environmental Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    K. Rasmuson; K. Rautenstrauch

    2004-01-01

    This analysis is one of 10 technical reports that support the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain Nevada (ERMYN) (i.e., the biosphere model). It documents development of agricultural and environmental input parameters for the biosphere model, and supports the use of the model to develop biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs). The biosphere model is one of a series of process models supporting the total system performance assessment (TSPA) for the repository at Yucca Mountain. The ERMYN provides the TSPA with the capability to perform dose assessments. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows the interrelationships between the major activities and their products (the analysis and model reports) that were planned in ''Technical Work Plan for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169573]). The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169460]) describes the ERMYN and its input parameters

  5. Alternative biosphere modeling for safety assessment of HLW disposal taking account of geosphere-biosphere interface of marine environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kato, Tomoko; Ishiguro, Katsuhiko; Naito, Morimasa; Ikeda, Takao; Little, Richard

    2001-03-01

    In the safety assessment of a high-level radioactive waste (HLW) disposal system, it is required to estimate radiological impacts on future human beings arising from potential radionuclide releases from a deep repository into the surface environment. In order to estimated the impacts, a biosphere model is developed by reasonably assuming radionuclide migration processes in the surface environment and relevant human lifestyles. It is important to modify the present biosphere models or to develop alternative biosphere models applying the biosphere models according to quality and quantify of the information acquired through the siting process for constructing the repository. In this study, alternative biosphere models were developed taking geosphere-biosphere interface of marine environment into account. Moreover, the flux to dose conversion factors calculated by these alternative biosphere models was compared with those by the present basic biosphere models. (author)

  6. Work in support of biosphere assessments for solid radioactive waste disposal. 2. biosphere FEP list and biosphere modelling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Egan, M J; Maul, P R; Watkins, B M; Venter, A [QuantiSci Ltd., Henley-on-Thames (United Kingdom)

    2001-10-01

    In order to assist SSI in its reappraisal of the SFR safety case, QuantiSci has been appointed to develop a systematic framework within which to conduct the review of SKB's post-closure performance assessment (PA). The biosphere FEP list presented here was developed for use as reference material in conducting the review. SSI wishes to develop an independent PA capability for a time-dependent biosphere in preparation for the examination of the revised SFR safety case. This report documents the model development that has been undertaken by QuantiSci using the Amber computer code.

  7. Work in support of biosphere assessments for solid radioactive waste disposal. 2. biosphere FEP list and biosphere modelling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Egan, M.J.; Maul, P.R.; Watkins, B.M.; Venter, A. [QuantiSci Ltd., Henley-on-Thames (United Kingdom)

    2001-10-01

    In order to assist SSI in its reappraisal of the SFR safety case, QuantiSci has been appointed to develop a systematic framework within which to conduct the review of SKB's post-closure performance assessment (PA). The biosphere FEP list presented here was developed for use as reference material in conducting the review. SSI wishes to develop an independent PA capability for a time-dependent biosphere in preparation for the examination of the revised SFR safety case. This report documents the model development that has been undertaken by QuantiSci using the Amber computer code.

  8. Work in support of biosphere assessments for solid radioactive waste disposal. 2. biosphere FEP list and biosphere modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Egan, M.J.; Maul, P.R.; Watkins, B.M.; Venter, A.

    2001-10-01

    In order to assist SSI in its reappraisal of the SFR safety case, QuantiSci has been appointed to develop a systematic framework within which to conduct the review of SKB's post-closure performance assessment (PA). The biosphere FEP list presented here was developed for use as reference material in conducting the review. SSI wishes to develop an independent PA capability for a time-dependent biosphere in preparation for the examination of the revised SFR safety case. This report documents the model development that has been undertaken by QuantiSci using the Amber computer code

  9. Agricultural and Environmental Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaylie Rasmuson; Kurt Rautenstrauch

    2003-01-01

    This analysis is one of nine technical reports that support the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain Nevada (ERMYN) biosphere model. It documents input parameters for the biosphere model, and supports the use of the model to develop Biosphere Dose Conversion Factors (BDCF). The biosphere model is one of a series of process models supporting the Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) for the repository at Yucca Mountain. The ERMYN provides the TSPA with the capability to perform dose assessments. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows the interrelationships between the major activities and their products (the analysis and model reports) that were planned in the biosphere Technical Work Plan (TWP, BSC 2003a). It should be noted that some documents identified in Figure 1-1 may be under development and therefore not available at the time this document is issued. The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2003b) describes the ERMYN and its input parameters. This analysis report, ANL-MGR-MD-000006, ''Agricultural and Environmental Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model'', is one of the five reports that develop input parameters for the biosphere model. This report defines and justifies values for twelve parameters required in the biosphere model. These parameters are related to use of contaminated groundwater to grow crops. The parameter values recommended in this report are used in the soil, plant, and carbon-14 submodels of the ERMYN

  10. Environmental Transport Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    M. Wasiolek

    2004-09-10

    This analysis report is one of the technical reports documenting the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain, Nevada (ERMYN), a biosphere model supporting the total system performance assessment for the license application (TSPA-LA) for the geologic repository at Yucca Mountain. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows relationships among the reports developed for biosphere modeling and biosphere abstraction products for the TSPA-LA, as identified in the ''Technical Work Plan for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169573]) (TWP). This figure provides an understanding of how this report contributes to biosphere modeling in support of the license application (LA). This report is one of the five reports that develop input parameter values for the biosphere model. The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169460]) describes the conceptual model and the mathematical model. The input parameter reports, shown to the right of the Biosphere Model Report in Figure 1-1, contain detailed description of the model input parameters. The output of this report is used as direct input in the ''Nominal Performance Biosphere Dose Conversion Factor Analysis'' and in the ''Disruptive Event Biosphere Dose Conversion Factor Analysis'' that calculate the values of biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs) for the groundwater and volcanic ash exposure scenarios, respectively. The purpose of this analysis was to develop biosphere model parameter values related to radionuclide transport and accumulation in the environment. These parameters support calculations of radionuclide concentrations in the environmental media (e.g., soil, crops, animal products, and air) resulting from a given radionuclide concentration at the source of contamination (i.e., either in groundwater or in volcanic ash). The analysis

  11. Environmental Transport Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    M. Wasiolek

    2004-01-01

    This analysis report is one of the technical reports documenting the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain, Nevada (ERMYN), a biosphere model supporting the total system performance assessment for the license application (TSPA-LA) for the geologic repository at Yucca Mountain. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows relationships among the reports developed for biosphere modeling and biosphere abstraction products for the TSPA-LA, as identified in the ''Technical Work Plan for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169573]) (TWP). This figure provides an understanding of how this report contributes to biosphere modeling in support of the license application (LA). This report is one of the five reports that develop input parameter values for the biosphere model. The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169460]) describes the conceptual model and the mathematical model. The input parameter reports, shown to the right of the Biosphere Model Report in Figure 1-1, contain detailed description of the model input parameters. The output of this report is used as direct input in the ''Nominal Performance Biosphere Dose Conversion Factor Analysis'' and in the ''Disruptive Event Biosphere Dose Conversion Factor Analysis'' that calculate the values of biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs) for the groundwater and volcanic ash exposure scenarios, respectively. The purpose of this analysis was to develop biosphere model parameter values related to radionuclide transport and accumulation in the environment. These parameters support calculations of radionuclide concentrations in the environmental media (e.g., soil, crops, animal products, and air) resulting from a given radionuclide concentration at the source of contamination (i.e., either in groundwater or in volcanic ash). The analysis was performed in accordance with the TWP (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169573])

  12. BIOSPHERE MODELING AT YUCCA MOUNTAIN, NEVADA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    NING LIU; JEFFERY, J.; TAPPEN, DE WU; CHAO-HSIUNG TUNG

    1998-01-01

    The objectives of the biosphere modeling efforts are to assess how radionuclides potentially released from the proposed repository could be transported through a variety of environmental media. The study of these transport mechanisms, referred to as pathways, is critical in calculating the potential radiation dose to man. Since most of the existing and pending regulations applicable to the Project are radiation dose based standards, the biosphere modeling effort will provide crucial technical input to support the Viability Assessment (VA), the Working Draft of License Application (WDLA), and the Environmental Impact Statement (EIS). In 1982, the Nuclear Waste Policy Act (NWPA) was enacted into law. This federal law, which was amended in 1987, addresses the national issue of geologic disposal of high-level nuclear waste generated by commercial nuclear power plants, as well as defense programs during the past few decades. As required by the law, the Department of Energy (DOE) is conducting a site characterization project at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, approximately 100 miles northwest of Las Vegas, Nevada, to determine if the site is suitable for the nation's first high-level nuclear waste repository

  13. Inhalation Exposure Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    K. Rautenstrauch

    2004-09-10

    This analysis is one of 10 reports that support the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain, Nevada (ERMYN) biosphere model. The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169460]) describes in detail the conceptual model as well as the mathematical model and its input parameters. This report documents development of input parameters for the biosphere model that are related to atmospheric mass loading and supports the use of the model to develop biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs). The biosphere model is one of a series of process models supporting the total system performance assessment (TSPA) for a Yucca Mountain repository. Inhalation Exposure Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model is one of five reports that develop input parameters for the biosphere model. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows the interrelationships among the products (i.e., analysis and model reports) developed for biosphere modeling, and the plan for development of the biosphere abstraction products for TSPA, as identified in the Technical Work Plan for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169573]). This analysis report defines and justifies values of mass loading for the biosphere model. Mass loading is the total mass concentration of resuspended particles (e.g., dust, ash) in a volume of air. Mass loading values are used in the air submodel of ERMYN to calculate concentrations of radionuclides in air inhaled by a receptor and concentrations in air surrounding crops. Concentrations in air to which the receptor is exposed are then used in the inhalation submodel to calculate the dose contribution to the receptor from inhalation of contaminated airborne particles. Concentrations in air surrounding plants are used in the plant submodel to calculate the concentrations of radionuclides in foodstuffs contributed from uptake by foliar interception.

  14. Inhalation Exposure Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    K. Rautenstrauch

    2004-01-01

    This analysis is one of 10 reports that support the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain, Nevada (ERMYN) biosphere model. The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169460]) describes in detail the conceptual model as well as the mathematical model and its input parameters. This report documents development of input parameters for the biosphere model that are related to atmospheric mass loading and supports the use of the model to develop biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs). The biosphere model is one of a series of process models supporting the total system performance assessment (TSPA) for a Yucca Mountain repository. Inhalation Exposure Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model is one of five reports that develop input parameters for the biosphere model. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows the interrelationships among the products (i.e., analysis and model reports) developed for biosphere modeling, and the plan for development of the biosphere abstraction products for TSPA, as identified in the Technical Work Plan for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169573]). This analysis report defines and justifies values of mass loading for the biosphere model. Mass loading is the total mass concentration of resuspended particles (e.g., dust, ash) in a volume of air. Mass loading values are used in the air submodel of ERMYN to calculate concentrations of radionuclides in air inhaled by a receptor and concentrations in air surrounding crops. Concentrations in air to which the receptor is exposed are then used in the inhalation submodel to calculate the dose contribution to the receptor from inhalation of contaminated airborne particles. Concentrations in air surrounding plants are used in the plant submodel to calculate the concentrations of radionuclides in foodstuffs contributed from uptake by foliar interception

  15. Characteristics of the Receptor for the Biosphere Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wasiolek, M.A.; Rautenstrauch, K.R.

    2003-01-01

    This analysis report is one of the technical reports containing documentation of the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain Nevada (ERMYN), a biosphere model supporting the Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) for the geologic repository at Yucca Mountain. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows relationships among the products (i.e., analysis and model reports) developed for biosphere modeling and biosphere abstraction products for TSPA, as identified in the ''Technical Work Plan: for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support'' (TWP) (BSC 2003). Some documents identified in Figure 1-1 may be under development and not available at the time this report is issued. This figure is included to provide an understanding of how this analysis report contributes to biosphere modeling in support of the license application, and access to the listed documents is not required to understand the contents of this report. This report is one of the reports that develop input parameter values for the biosphere model. The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2003), describes the conceptual model as well as the mathematical model and its input parameters. The purpose of this analysis report is to define values for biosphere model parameters that are related to the dietary, lifestyle, and dosimetric characteristics of the receptor. The biosphere model, consistent with the licensing rule at 10 CFR Part 63, uses a hypothetical person called the reasonably maximally exposed individual (RMEI) to represent the potentially exposed population. The parameters that define the RMEI are based on the behaviors and characteristics of the Amargosa Valley population, consistent with the requirements of 10 CFR 63.312. Amargosa Valley is the community, located in the direction of the projected groundwater flow path, where most of the farming in the area occurs. The parameter values developed in this report support the

  16. Characteristics of the Receptor for the Biosphere Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    M.A. Wasiolek; K.R. Rautenstrauch

    2003-06-27

    This analysis report is one of the technical reports containing documentation of the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain Nevada (ERMYN), a biosphere model supporting the Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) for the geologic repository at Yucca Mountain. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows relationships among the products (i.e., analysis and model reports) developed for biosphere modeling and biosphere abstraction products for TSPA, as identified in the ''Technical Work Plan: for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support'' (TWP) (BSC 2003). Some documents identified in Figure 1-1 may be under development and not available at the time this report is issued. This figure is included to provide an understanding of how this analysis report contributes to biosphere modeling in support of the license application, and access to the listed documents is not required to understand the contents of this report. This report is one of the reports that develop input parameter values for the biosphere model. The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2003), describes the conceptual model as well as the mathematical model and its input parameters. The purpose of this analysis report is to define values for biosphere model parameters that are related to the dietary, lifestyle, and dosimetric characteristics of the receptor. The biosphere model, consistent with the licensing rule at 10 CFR Part 63, uses a hypothetical person called the reasonably maximally exposed individual (RMEI) to represent the potentially exposed population. The parameters that define the RMEI are based on the behaviors and characteristics of the Amargosa Valley population, consistent with the requirements of 10 CFR 63.312. Amargosa Valley is the community, located in the direction of the projected groundwater flow path, where most of the farming in the area occurs. The parameter values

  17. Biosphere models for safety assesment of radioactive waste disposal

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Proehl, G; Olyslaegers, G; Zeevaert, T [SCK/CEN, Mol (Belgium); Kanyar, B [University of Veszprem (Hungary). Dept. of Radiochemistry; Pinedo, P; Simon, I [Centro de Investigaciones Energeticas Medioambientales y Tecnologicas (CIEMAT), Madrid (Spain); Bergstroem, U; Hallberg, B [Studsvik Ecosafe, Nykoeping (Sweden); Mobbs, S; Chen, Q; Kowe, R [NRPB, Chilton, Didcot (United Kingdom)

    2004-07-01

    The aim of the BioMoSA project has been to contribute in the confidence building of biosphere models, for application in performance assessments of radioactive waste disposal. The detailed objectives of this project are: development and test of practical biosphere models for application in long-term safety studies of radioactive waste disposal to different European locations, identification of features, events and processes that need to be modelled on a site-specific rather than on a generic base, comparison of the results and quantification of the variability of site-specific models developed according to the reference biosphere methodology, development of a generic biosphere tool for application in long term safety studies, comparison of results from site-specific models to those from generic one, Identification of possibilities and limitations for the application of the generic biosphere model. (orig.)

  18. Biosphere models for safety assessment of radioactive waste disposal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Proehl, G.; Olyslaegers, G.; Zeevaert, T.; Kanyar, B.; Bergstroem, U.; Hallberg, B.; Mobbs, S.; Chen, Q.; Kowe, R.

    2004-01-01

    The aim of the BioMoSA project has been to contribute in the confidence building of biosphere models, for application in performance assessments of radioactive waste disposal. The detailed objectives of this project are: development and test of practical biosphere models for application in long-term safety studies of radioactive waste disposal to different European locations, identification of features, events and processes that need to be modelled on a site-specific rather than on a generic base, comparison of the results and quantification of the variability of site-specific models developed according to the reference biosphere methodology, development of a generic biosphere tool for application in long term safety studies, comparison of results from site-specific models to those from generic one, Identification of possibilities and limitations for the application of the generic biosphere model. (orig.)

  19. Characteristics of the Receptor for the Biosphere Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    M. Wasiolek; K. Rautenstrauch

    2004-01-01

    This analysis report is one of a series of technical reports that document the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain, Nevada (ERMYN), a biosphere model supporting the total system performance assessment (TSPA) for the geologic repository at Yucca Mountain. This report is one of the five biosphere reports that develop input parameter values for the biosphere model. The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169460]) describes the conceptual model, as well as the mathematical model and its input parameters. Figure 1-1 is a graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN. This figure shows relationships among the products (i.e., scientific analyses and model reports) developed for biosphere modeling and biosphere abstraction products for TSPA, as identified in the ''Technical Work Plan: for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169573]). The purpose of this analysis report is to define values for biosphere model parameters that are related to the dietary, lifestyle, and dosimetric characteristics of the receptor. The biosphere model, consistent with the licensing rule at 10 CFR Part 63 [DIRS 156605], uses a hypothetical person called the reasonably maximally exposed individual (RMEI) to represent the potentially exposed population. The parameters that define the RMEI are based on the behaviors and characteristics of the residents of the unincorporated town of Amargosa Valley, consistent with the requirements of 10 CFR 63.312 [DIRS 156605]. The output of this report is used as direct input in the two analyses identified in Figure 1-1 that calculate the values of biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs) for the groundwater and volcanic ash exposure scenarios. The parameter values developed in this report are reflected in the TSPA through the BDCFs. The analysis was performed in accordance with AP-SIII.9Q, ''Scientific Analyses'', and the technical work plan (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169573])

  20. Characteristics of the Receptor for the Biosphere Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    M. Wasiolek; K. Rautenstrauch

    2004-09-09

    This analysis report is one of a series of technical reports that document the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain, Nevada (ERMYN), a biosphere model supporting the total system performance assessment (TSPA) for the geologic repository at Yucca Mountain. This report is one of the five biosphere reports that develop input parameter values for the biosphere model. The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169460]) describes the conceptual model, as well as the mathematical model and its input parameters. Figure 1-1 is a graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN. This figure shows relationships among the products (i.e., scientific analyses and model reports) developed for biosphere modeling and biosphere abstraction products for TSPA, as identified in the ''Technical Work Plan: for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169573]). The purpose of this analysis report is to define values for biosphere model parameters that are related to the dietary, lifestyle, and dosimetric characteristics of the receptor. The biosphere model, consistent with the licensing rule at 10 CFR Part 63 [DIRS 156605], uses a hypothetical person called the reasonably maximally exposed individual (RMEI) to represent the potentially exposed population. The parameters that define the RMEI are based on the behaviors and characteristics of the residents of the unincorporated town of Amargosa Valley, consistent with the requirements of 10 CFR 63.312 [DIRS 156605]. The output of this report is used as direct input in the two analyses identified in Figure 1-1 that calculate the values of biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs) for the groundwater and volcanic ash exposure scenarios. The parameter values developed in this report are reflected in the TSPA through the BDCFs. The analysis was performed in accordance with AP-SIII.9Q, ''Scientific Analyses'', and the technical work

  1. Inhalation Exposure Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    M. Wasiolek

    2006-06-05

    This analysis is one of the technical reports that support the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain, Nevada (ERMYN), referred to in this report as the biosphere model. ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169460]) describes in detail the conceptual model as well as the mathematical model and its input parameters. This report documents development of input parameters for the biosphere model that are related to atmospheric mass loading and supports the use of the model to develop biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs). The biosphere model is one of a series of process models supporting the total system performance assessment (TSPA) for a Yucca Mountain repository. ''Inhalation Exposure Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model'' is one of five reports that develop input parameters for the biosphere model. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the biosphere model is presented in Figure 1-1 (based on BSC 2006 [DIRS 176938]). This figure shows the interrelationships among the products (i.e., analysis and model reports) developed for biosphere modeling and how this analysis report contributes to biosphere modeling. This analysis report defines and justifies values of atmospheric mass loading for the biosphere model. Mass loading is the total mass concentration of resuspended particles (e.g., dust, ash) in a volume of air. Mass loading values are used in the air submodel of the biosphere model to calculate concentrations of radionuclides in air inhaled by a receptor and concentrations in air surrounding crops. Concentrations in air to which the receptor is exposed are then used in the inhalation submodel to calculate the dose contribution to the receptor from inhalation of contaminated airborne particles. Concentrations in air surrounding plants are used in the plant submodel to calculate the concentrations of radionuclides in foodstuffs contributed from uptake by foliar interception. This

  2. Inhalation Exposure Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    M. Wasiolek

    2006-01-01

    This analysis is one of the technical reports that support the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain, Nevada (ERMYN), referred to in this report as the biosphere model. ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169460]) describes in detail the conceptual model as well as the mathematical model and its input parameters. This report documents development of input parameters for the biosphere model that are related to atmospheric mass loading and supports the use of the model to develop biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs). The biosphere model is one of a series of process models supporting the total system performance assessment (TSPA) for a Yucca Mountain repository. ''Inhalation Exposure Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model'' is one of five reports that develop input parameters for the biosphere model. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the biosphere model is presented in Figure 1-1 (based on BSC 2006 [DIRS 176938]). This figure shows the interrelationships among the products (i.e., analysis and model reports) developed for biosphere modeling and how this analysis report contributes to biosphere modeling. This analysis report defines and justifies values of atmospheric mass loading for the biosphere model. Mass loading is the total mass concentration of resuspended particles (e.g., dust, ash) in a volume of air. Mass loading values are used in the air submodel of the biosphere model to calculate concentrations of radionuclides in air inhaled by a receptor and concentrations in air surrounding crops. Concentrations in air to which the receptor is exposed are then used in the inhalation submodel to calculate the dose contribution to the receptor from inhalation of contaminated airborne particles. Concentrations in air surrounding plants are used in the plant submodel to calculate the concentrations of radionuclides in foodstuffs contributed from uptake by foliar interception. This report is concerned primarily with the

  3. Agricultural and Environmental Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kaylie Rasmuson; Kurt Rautenstrauch

    2003-06-20

    This analysis is one of nine technical reports that support the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain Nevada (ERMYN) biosphere model. It documents input parameters for the biosphere model, and supports the use of the model to develop Biosphere Dose Conversion Factors (BDCF). The biosphere model is one of a series of process models supporting the Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) for the repository at Yucca Mountain. The ERMYN provides the TSPA with the capability to perform dose assessments. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows the interrelationships between the major activities and their products (the analysis and model reports) that were planned in the biosphere Technical Work Plan (TWP, BSC 2003a). It should be noted that some documents identified in Figure 1-1 may be under development and therefore not available at the time this document is issued. The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2003b) describes the ERMYN and its input parameters. This analysis report, ANL-MGR-MD-000006, ''Agricultural and Environmental Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model'', is one of the five reports that develop input parameters for the biosphere model. This report defines and justifies values for twelve parameters required in the biosphere model. These parameters are related to use of contaminated groundwater to grow crops. The parameter values recommended in this report are used in the soil, plant, and carbon-14 submodels of the ERMYN.

  4. Soil-related Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A. J. Smith

    2003-01-01

    This analysis is one of the technical reports containing documentation of the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain Nevada (ERMYN), a biosphere model supporting the Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) for the geologic repository at Yucca Mountain. The biosphere model is one of a series of process models supporting the Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) for the Yucca Mountain repository. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN biosphere model is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows the interrelationships among the products (i.e., analysis and model reports) developed for biosphere modeling, and the plan for development of the biosphere abstraction products for TSPA, as identified in the ''Technical Work Plan: for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support'' (BSC 2003 [163602]). It should be noted that some documents identified in Figure 1-1 may be under development at the time this report is issued and therefore not available. This figure is included to provide an understanding of how this analysis report contributes to biosphere modeling in support of the license application, and is not intended to imply that access to the listed documents is required to understand the contents of this report. This report, ''Soil Related Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model'', is one of the five analysis reports that develop input parameters for use in the ERMYN model. This report is the source documentation for the six biosphere parameters identified in Table 1-1. ''The Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2003 [160699]) describes in detail the conceptual model as well as the mathematical model and its input parameters. The purpose of this analysis was to develop the biosphere model parameters needed to evaluate doses from pathways associated with the accumulation and depletion of radionuclides in the soil. These parameters support the calculation of radionuclide concentrations in soil from on-going irrigation and ash

  5. NACP Site: Terrestrial Biosphere Model Output Data in Original Format

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — ABSTRACT: This data set contains the original model output data submissions from the 24 terrestrial biosphere models (TBM) that participated in the North American...

  6. NACP Site: Terrestrial Biosphere Model Output Data in Original Format

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This data set contains the original model output data submissions from the 24 terrestrial biosphere models (TBM) that participated in the North American Carbon...

  7. Exchange processes at geosphere-biosphere interface. Current SKB approach and example of coupled hydrological-ecological approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Woerman, Anders [Swedish Univ. of Agricultural Sciences, Uppsala (Sweden). Dept. of Biometry and Technology

    2003-09-01

    The design of the repository for final disposal of spent nuclear fuel proposed by SKB is based on a multi-barrier system, in which the geosphere and biosphere are the utmost barrier surrounding the engineer barriers. This report briefly reviews the current approach taken by SKB to account for hydrological and ecological processes at the geosphere-biosphere interface (GBI) and their future plans in this area. A simple analysis was performed to shift the focus of performance assessment involving geosphere-biosphere interface modelling from the very simplistic assumption that the quaternary sediments are bypassed to one in which a more detailed model for sub-surface flows is included. This study indicated that, for many assumed ecosystem descriptions, the presence of the GBI leads to lower maximum doses to individual humans compared to a case when the GBI is neglected. This effect is due to the additional 'barrier' offered by the GBI. The main exposure pathways were assumed to occur through the food web. However, particularly the leakage on land through the stream-network and lakes can lead to higher doses due to ecosystem interaction with arable land. A scenario that gives particularly long duration of doses occurs due to land rise and with the transformation of the former bay and lake bed sediments into agricultural land. This effect is due to the significant retention or accumulation in aquatic sediment, which causes high activities to build up with time. Particularly, in combination with changing conditions in climate, humans life-style or geographic conditions (land rise, deforestation,etc.) doses to individual humans can be large.

  8. Exchange processes at geosphere-biosphere interface. Current SKB approach and example of coupled hydrological-ecological approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Woerman, Anders

    2003-09-01

    The design of the repository for final disposal of spent nuclear fuel proposed by SKB is based on a multi-barrier system, in which the geosphere and biosphere are the utmost barrier surrounding the engineer barriers. This report briefly reviews the current approach taken by SKB to account for hydrological and ecological processes at the geosphere-biosphere interface (GBI) and their future plans in this area. A simple analysis was performed to shift the focus of performance assessment involving geosphere-biosphere interface modelling from the very simplistic assumption that the quaternary sediments are bypassed to one in which a more detailed model for sub-surface flows is included. This study indicated that, for many assumed ecosystem descriptions, the presence of the GBI leads to lower maximum doses to individual humans compared to a case when the GBI is neglected. This effect is due to the additional 'barrier' offered by the GBI. The main exposure pathways were assumed to occur through the food web. However, particularly the leakage on land through the stream-network and lakes can lead to higher doses due to ecosystem interaction with arable land. A scenario that gives particularly long duration of doses occurs due to land rise and with the transformation of the former bay and lake bed sediments into agricultural land. This effect is due to the significant retention or accumulation in aquatic sediment, which causes high activities to build up with time. Particularly, in combination with changing conditions in climate, humans life-style or geographic conditions (land rise, deforestation,etc.) doses to individual humans can be large

  9. Analysis specifications for the CC3 biosphere model biotrac

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Szekely, J G; Wojciechowski, L C; Stephens, M E; Halliday, H A

    1994-12-01

    The CC3 (Canadian Concept, generation 3) model BIOTRAC (Biosphere Transport and Consequences) describes the movement in the biosphere of releases from an underground disposal vault, and the consequent radiological dose to a reference individual. Concentrations of toxic substances in different parts of the biosphere are also calculated. BIOTRAC was created specifically for the postclosure analyses of the Environmental Impact Statement that AECL is preparing on the concept for disposal of Canada`s nuclear fuel waste. The model relies on certain assumptions and constraints on the system, which are described by Davis et al. Accordingly, great care must be exercised if BIOTRAC is used for any other purpose.

  10. Inhalation Exposure Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    M. A. Wasiolek

    2003-09-24

    This analysis is one of the nine reports that support the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain Nevada (ERMYN) biosphere model. The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2003a) describes in detail the conceptual model as well as the mathematical model and its input parameters. This report documents a set of input parameters for the biosphere model, and supports the use of the model to develop biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs). The biosphere model is one of a series of process models supporting the Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) for a Yucca Mountain repository. This report, ''Inhalation Exposure Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model'', is one of the five reports that develop input parameters for the biosphere model. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows the interrelationships among the products (i.e., analysis and model reports) developed for biosphere modeling, and the plan for development of the biosphere abstraction products for TSPA, as identified in the ''Technical Work Plan: for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support'' (BSC 2003b). It should be noted that some documents identified in Figure 1-1 may be under development at the time this report is issued and therefore not available at that time. This figure is included to provide an understanding of how this analysis report contributes to biosphere modeling in support of the license application, and is not intended to imply that access to the listed documents is required to understand the contents of this analysis report. This analysis report defines and justifies values of mass loading, which is the total mass concentration of resuspended particles (e.g., dust, ash) in a volume of air. Measurements of mass loading are used in the air submodel of ERMYN to calculate concentrations of radionuclides in air surrounding crops and concentrations in air

  11. Inhalation Exposure Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    M. A. Wasiolek

    2003-01-01

    This analysis is one of the nine reports that support the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain Nevada (ERMYN) biosphere model. The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2003a) describes in detail the conceptual model as well as the mathematical model and its input parameters. This report documents a set of input parameters for the biosphere model, and supports the use of the model to develop biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs). The biosphere model is one of a series of process models supporting the Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) for a Yucca Mountain repository. This report, ''Inhalation Exposure Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model'', is one of the five reports that develop input parameters for the biosphere model. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows the interrelationships among the products (i.e., analysis and model reports) developed for biosphere modeling, and the plan for development of the biosphere abstraction products for TSPA, as identified in the ''Technical Work Plan: for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support'' (BSC 2003b). It should be noted that some documents identified in Figure 1-1 may be under development at the time this report is issued and therefore not available at that time. This figure is included to provide an understanding of how this analysis report contributes to biosphere modeling in support of the license application, and is not intended to imply that access to the listed documents is required to understand the contents of this analysis report. This analysis report defines and justifies values of mass loading, which is the total mass concentration of resuspended particles (e.g., dust, ash) in a volume of air. Measurements of mass loading are used in the air submodel of ERMYN to calculate concentrations of radionuclides in air surrounding crops and concentrations in air inhaled by a receptor. Concentrations in air to which the

  12. Agricultural and Environmental Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    K. Rasmuson; K. Rautenstrauch

    2004-09-14

    This analysis is one of 10 technical reports that support the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain Nevada (ERMYN) (i.e., the biosphere model). It documents development of agricultural and environmental input parameters for the biosphere model, and supports the use of the model to develop biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs). The biosphere model is one of a series of process models supporting the total system performance assessment (TSPA) for the repository at Yucca Mountain. The ERMYN provides the TSPA with the capability to perform dose assessments. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows the interrelationships between the major activities and their products (the analysis and model reports) that were planned in ''Technical Work Plan for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169573]). The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169460]) describes the ERMYN and its input parameters.

  13. Characteristics of the Receptor for the Biosphere Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    M.A. Wasiolek

    2005-01-01

    This analysis report is one of a series of technical reports that document the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain, Nevada (ERMYN), a biosphere model supporting the total system performance assessment (TSPA) for the geologic repository at Yucca Mountain. This report is one of the five biosphere reports that develop input parameter values for the biosphere model. The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169460]) describes the conceptual model, as well as the mathematical model and its input parameters. Figure 1-1 is a graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN. This figure shows relationships among the products (i.e., scientific analyses and model reports) developed for biosphere modeling and biosphere abstraction products for TSPA, as identified in the ''Technical Work Plan for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support'' (BSC 2005 [DIRS 172782]). The purpose of this analysis report is to define values for biosphere model parameters that are related to the dietary, lifestyle, and dosimetric characteristics of the receptor. The biosphere model, consistent with the licensing rule at 10 CFR Part 63 [DIRS 173164], uses a hypothetical person called the reasonably maximally exposed individual (RMEI) to represent the potentially exposed population. The parameters that define the RMEI are based on the behaviors and characteristics of the residents of the unincorporated town of Amargosa Valley, consistent with the requirements of 10 CFR 63.312 [DIRS 173164]. The output of this report is used as direct input in the two analyses identified in Figure 1-1 that calculate the values of biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs) for the groundwater and volcanic ash exposure scenarios. The parameter values developed in this report are reflected in the TSPA through the BDCFs. The analysis was performed in accordance with LP-SIII.9Q-BSC, ''Scientific Analyses'', and the technical work plan (BSC 2005 [DIRS 172782]). The scope of the revision was

  14. Characteristics of the Receptor for the Biosphere Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    M.A. Wasiolek

    2005-04-05

    This analysis report is one of a series of technical reports that document the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain, Nevada (ERMYN), a biosphere model supporting the total system performance assessment (TSPA) for the geologic repository at Yucca Mountain. This report is one of the five biosphere reports that develop input parameter values for the biosphere model. The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169460]) describes the conceptual model, as well as the mathematical model and its input parameters. Figure 1-1 is a graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN. This figure shows relationships among the products (i.e., scientific analyses and model reports) developed for biosphere modeling and biosphere abstraction products for TSPA, as identified in the ''Technical Work Plan for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support'' (BSC 2005 [DIRS 172782]). The purpose of this analysis report is to define values for biosphere model parameters that are related to the dietary, lifestyle, and dosimetric characteristics of the receptor. The biosphere model, consistent with the licensing rule at 10 CFR Part 63 [DIRS 173164], uses a hypothetical person called the reasonably maximally exposed individual (RMEI) to represent the potentially exposed population. The parameters that define the RMEI are based on the behaviors and characteristics of the residents of the unincorporated town of Amargosa Valley, consistent with the requirements of 10 CFR 63.312 [DIRS 173164]. The output of this report is used as direct input in the two analyses identified in Figure 1-1 that calculate the values of biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs) for the groundwater and volcanic ash exposure scenarios. The parameter values developed in this report are reflected in the TSPA through the BDCFs. The analysis was performed in accordance with LP-SIII.9Q-BSC, ''Scientific Analyses'', and the technical work

  15. Environmental Transport Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wasiolek, M. A.

    2003-01-01

    This analysis report is one of the technical reports documenting the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain Nevada (ERMYN), a biosphere model supporting the total system performance assessment (TSPA) for the geologic repository at Yucca Mountain. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows relationships among the reports developed for biosphere modeling and biosphere abstraction products for the TSPA, as identified in the ''Technical Work Plan: for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support'' (TWP) (BSC 2003 [163602]). Some documents in Figure 1-1 may be under development and not available when this report is issued. This figure provides an understanding of how this report contributes to biosphere modeling in support of the license application (LA), but access to the listed documents is not required to understand the contents of this report. This report is one of the reports that develops input parameter values for the biosphere model. The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2003 [160699]) describes the conceptual model, the mathematical model, and the input parameters. The purpose of this analysis is to develop biosphere model parameter values related to radionuclide transport and accumulation in the environment. These parameters support calculations of radionuclide concentrations in the environmental media (e.g., soil, crops, animal products, and air) resulting from a given radionuclide concentration at the source of contamination (i.e., either in groundwater or volcanic ash). The analysis was performed in accordance with the TWP (BSC 2003 [163602]). This analysis develops values of parameters associated with many features, events, and processes (FEPs) applicable to the reference biosphere (DTN: M00303SEPFEPS2.000 [162452]), which are addressed in the biosphere model (BSC 2003 [160699]). The treatment of these FEPs is described in BSC (2003 [160699], Section 6.2). Parameter values

  16. Environmental Transport Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    M. A. Wasiolek

    2003-06-27

    This analysis report is one of the technical reports documenting the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain Nevada (ERMYN), a biosphere model supporting the total system performance assessment (TSPA) for the geologic repository at Yucca Mountain. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows relationships among the reports developed for biosphere modeling and biosphere abstraction products for the TSPA, as identified in the ''Technical Work Plan: for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support'' (TWP) (BSC 2003 [163602]). Some documents in Figure 1-1 may be under development and not available when this report is issued. This figure provides an understanding of how this report contributes to biosphere modeling in support of the license application (LA), but access to the listed documents is not required to understand the contents of this report. This report is one of the reports that develops input parameter values for the biosphere model. The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2003 [160699]) describes the conceptual model, the mathematical model, and the input parameters. The purpose of this analysis is to develop biosphere model parameter values related to radionuclide transport and accumulation in the environment. These parameters support calculations of radionuclide concentrations in the environmental media (e.g., soil, crops, animal products, and air) resulting from a given radionuclide concentration at the source of contamination (i.e., either in groundwater or volcanic ash). The analysis was performed in accordance with the TWP (BSC 2003 [163602]). This analysis develops values of parameters associated with many features, events, and processes (FEPs) applicable to the reference biosphere (DTN: M00303SEPFEPS2.000 [162452]), which are addressed in the biosphere model (BSC 2003 [160699]). The treatment of these FEPs is described in BSC (2003 [160699

  17. A Biosphere model for use in SITE-94

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barrdahl, R.

    1996-08-01

    A simple biosphere model has been designed for use in the SKI Project SITE-94 related to a hypothetical repository for spent nuclear fuel on the island of Aespoe. The model provides results in terms of radiation dose per 1 Bq/year, unless otherwise indicated, and results will thus have to be scaled with actual flux of radionuclides per year entering the primary biosphere recipients. The model does not include radioactive decay as there is assumed no delay in the model system, except for where explicitly mentioned. Specifically, no radioactive transitions resulting in daughter nuclides are considered. Calculated yearly individual and population committed (50 years) radiation doses to man are expressed as mSv/h, under the assumption of a flux of one Bq/year into the primary biosphere recipient. Calculated radiation doses resulting from the present biosphere model are hypothetical, and should under no circumstances be considered as real. Neither should they be used as quantitative information for decision purposes. The biosphere model is of a rough and primitive character and its precision, relative to the real biosphere in the surroundings of Aespoe is envisaged to be several orders of magnitude. 8 refs

  18. Soil-Related Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, A. J.

    2004-01-01

    This report presents one of the analyses that support the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain Nevada (ERMYN). The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169460]) describes the details of the conceptual model as well as the mathematical model and the required input parameters. The biosphere model is one of a series of process models supporting the postclosure Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) for the Yucca Mountain repository. A schematic representation of the documentation flow for the Biosphere input to TSPA is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows the evolutionary relationships among the products (i.e., analysis and model reports) developed for biosphere modeling, and the biosphere abstraction products for TSPA, as identified in the ''Technical Work Plan for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support'' (TWP) (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169573]). This figure is included to provide an understanding of how this analysis report contributes to biosphere modeling in support of the license application, and is not intended to imply that access to the listed documents is required to understand the contents of this report. This report, ''Soil-Related Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model'', is one of the five analysis reports that develop input parameters for use in the ERMYN model. This report is the source documentation for the six biosphere parameters identified in Table 1-1. The purpose of this analysis was to develop the biosphere model parameters associated with the accumulation and depletion of radionuclides in the soil. These parameters support the calculation of radionuclide concentrations in soil from on-going irrigation or ash deposition and, as a direct consequence, radionuclide concentration in other environmental media that are affected by radionuclide concentrations in soil. The analysis was performed in accordance with the TWP (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169573]) where the governing procedure was defined as AP-SIII.9Q, ''Scientific Analyses''. This

  19. Soil-Related Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    A. J. Smith

    2004-09-09

    This report presents one of the analyses that support the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain Nevada (ERMYN). The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169460]) describes the details of the conceptual model as well as the mathematical model and the required input parameters. The biosphere model is one of a series of process models supporting the postclosure Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) for the Yucca Mountain repository. A schematic representation of the documentation flow for the Biosphere input to TSPA is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows the evolutionary relationships among the products (i.e., analysis and model reports) developed for biosphere modeling, and the biosphere abstraction products for TSPA, as identified in the ''Technical Work Plan for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support'' (TWP) (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169573]). This figure is included to provide an understanding of how this analysis report contributes to biosphere modeling in support of the license application, and is not intended to imply that access to the listed documents is required to understand the contents of this report. This report, ''Soil-Related Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model'', is one of the five analysis reports that develop input parameters for use in the ERMYN model. This report is the source documentation for the six biosphere parameters identified in Table 1-1. The purpose of this analysis was to develop the biosphere model parameters associated with the accumulation and depletion of radionuclides in the soil. These parameters support the calculation of radionuclide concentrations in soil from on-going irrigation or ash deposition and, as a direct consequence, radionuclide concentration in other environmental media that are affected by radionuclide concentrations in soil. The analysis was performed in accordance with the TWP (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169573]) where the governing procedure

  20. Post-closure biosphere assessment modelling: comparison of complex and more stylised approaches.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walke, Russell C; Kirchner, Gerald; Xu, Shulan; Dverstorp, Björn

    2015-10-01

    Geological disposal facilities are the preferred option for high-level radioactive waste, due to their potential to provide isolation from the surface environment (biosphere) on very long timescales. Assessments need to strike a balance between stylised models and more complex approaches that draw more extensively on site-specific information. This paper explores the relative merits of complex versus more stylised biosphere models in the context of a site-specific assessment. The more complex biosphere modelling approach was developed by the Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co (SKB) for the Formark candidate site for a spent nuclear fuel repository in Sweden. SKB's approach is built on a landscape development model, whereby radionuclide releases to distinct hydrological basins/sub-catchments (termed 'objects') are represented as they evolve through land rise and climate change. Each of seventeen of these objects is represented with more than 80 site specific parameters, with about 22 that are time-dependent and result in over 5000 input values per object. The more stylised biosphere models developed for this study represent releases to individual ecosystems without environmental change and include the most plausible transport processes. In the context of regulatory review of the landscape modelling approach adopted in the SR-Site assessment in Sweden, the more stylised representation has helped to build understanding in the more complex modelling approaches by providing bounding results, checking the reasonableness of the more complex modelling, highlighting uncertainties introduced through conceptual assumptions and helping to quantify the conservatisms involved. The more stylised biosphere models are also shown capable of reproducing the results of more complex approaches. A major recommendation is that biosphere assessments need to justify the degree of complexity in modelling approaches as well as simplifying and conservative assumptions. In light of

  1. netherland hydrological modeling instrument

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoogewoud, J. C.; de Lange, W. J.; Veldhuizen, A.; Prinsen, G.

    2012-04-01

    Netherlands Hydrological Modeling Instrument A decision support system for water basin management. J.C. Hoogewoud , W.J. de Lange ,A. Veldhuizen , G. Prinsen , The Netherlands Hydrological modeling Instrument (NHI) is the center point of a framework of models, to coherently model the hydrological system and the multitude of functions it supports. Dutch hydrological institutes Deltares, Alterra, Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, RWS Waterdienst, STOWA and Vewin are cooperating in enhancing the NHI for adequate decision support. The instrument is used by three different ministries involved in national water policy matters, for instance the WFD, drought management, manure policy and climate change issues. The basis of the modeling instrument is a state-of-the-art on-line coupling of the groundwater system (MODFLOW), the unsaturated zone (metaSWAP) and the surface water system (MOZART-DM). It brings together hydro(geo)logical processes from the column to the basin scale, ranging from 250x250m plots to the river Rhine and includes salt water flow. The NHI is validated with an eight year run (1998-2006) with dry and wet periods. For this run different parts of the hydrology have been compared with measurements. For instance, water demands in dry periods (e.g. for irrigation), discharges at outlets, groundwater levels and evaporation. A validation alone is not enough to get support from stakeholders. Involvement from stakeholders in the modeling process is needed. There fore to gain sufficient support and trust in the instrument on different (policy) levels a couple of actions have been taken: 1. a transparent evaluation of modeling-results has been set up 2. an extensive program is running to cooperate with regional waterboards and suppliers of drinking water in improving the NHI 3. sharing (hydrological) data via newly setup Modeling Database for local and national models 4. Enhancing the NHI with "local" information. The NHI is and has been used for many

  2. Hydrological land surface modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ridler, Marc-Etienne Francois

    Recent advances in integrated hydrological and soil-vegetation-atmosphere transfer (SVAT) modelling have led to improved water resource management practices, greater crop production, and better flood forecasting systems. However, uncertainty is inherent in all numerical models ultimately leading...... temperature are explored in a multi-objective calibration experiment to optimize the parameters in a SVAT model in the Sahel. The two satellite derived variables were effective at constraining most land-surface and soil parameters. A data assimilation framework is developed and implemented with an integrated...... and disaster management. The objective of this study is to develop and investigate methods to reduce hydrological model uncertainty by using supplementary data sources. The data is used either for model calibration or for model updating using data assimilation. Satellite estimates of soil moisture and surface...

  3. Hydrological models are mediating models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Babel, L. V.; Karssenberg, D.

    2013-08-01

    Despite the increasing role of models in hydrological research and decision-making processes, only few accounts of the nature and function of models exist in hydrology. Earlier considerations have traditionally been conducted while making a clear distinction between physically-based and conceptual models. A new philosophical account, primarily based on the fields of physics and economics, transcends classes of models and scientific disciplines by considering models as "mediators" between theory and observations. The core of this approach lies in identifying models as (1) being only partially dependent on theory and observations, (2) integrating non-deductive elements in their construction, and (3) carrying the role of instruments of scientific enquiry about both theory and the world. The applicability of this approach to hydrology is evaluated in the present article. Three widely used hydrological models, each showing a different degree of apparent physicality, are confronted to the main characteristics of the "mediating models" concept. We argue that irrespective of their kind, hydrological models depend on both theory and observations, rather than merely on one of these two domains. Their construction is additionally involving a large number of miscellaneous, external ingredients, such as past experiences, model objectives, knowledge and preferences of the modeller, as well as hardware and software resources. We show that hydrological models convey the role of instruments in scientific practice by mediating between theory and the world. It results from these considerations that the traditional distinction between physically-based and conceptual models is necessarily too simplistic and refers at best to the stage at which theory and observations are steering model construction. The large variety of ingredients involved in model construction would deserve closer attention, for being rarely explicitly presented in peer-reviewed literature. We believe that devoting

  4. Analysis specifications for the CC3 biosphere model BIOTRAC

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Szekely, J.G.; Wojciechowski, L.C.; Stephens, M.E.; Halliday, H.A.

    1994-12-01

    AECL Research is assessing a concept for disposing of Canada's nuclear fuel waste in a vault deep in plutonic rock of the Canadian Shield. A computer program called the Systems Variability Analysis Code (SYVAC) has been developed as an analytical tool for the postclosure (long-term) assessment of the concept. SYVAC3, the third generation of the code, is an executive program that directs repeated simulation of the disposal system to take into account parameter variation. For the postclosure assessment, the system model, CC3 (Canadian Concept, generation 3), was developed to describe a hypothetical disposal system that includes a disposal vault, the local geosphere and the biosphere in the vicinity of any discharge zones. BIOTRAC (BIOsphere TRansport And Consequences) is the biosphere model in the CC3 system model. The specifications for BIOTRAC, which were developed over a period of seven years, were subjected to numerous walkthrough examinations by the Biosphere Model Working Group to ensure that the intent of the model developers would be correctly specified for transformation into FORTRAN code. The FORTRAN version of BIOTRAC was written from interim versions of these specifications. Improvements to the code are based on revised versions of these specifications. The specifications consist of a data dictionary; sets of synopses, data flow diagrams and mini specs for the component models of BIOTRAC (surface water, soil, atmosphere, and food chain and dose); and supporting calculations (interface to the geosphere, consequences, and mass balance). (author). 20 refs., tabs., figs

  5. Radioactive waste disposal assessment - overview of biosphere processes and models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coughtrey, P.J.

    1992-09-01

    This report provides an overview of biosphere processes and models in the general context of the radiological assessment of radioactive waste disposal as a basis for HMIP's response to biosphere aspects of Nirex's submissions for disposal of radioactive wastes in a purpose-built repository at Sellafield, Cumbria. The overview takes into account published information from the UK as available from Nirex's safety and assessment research programme and HMIP's disposal assessment programme, as well as that available from studies in the UK and elsewhere. (Author)

  6. Thermal-hydrological models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Buscheck, T., LLNL

    1998-04-29

    This chapter describes the physical processes and natural and engineered system conditions that affect thermal-hydrological (T-H) behavior in the unsaturated zone (UZ) at Yucca Mountain and how these effects are represented in mathematical and numerical models that are used to predict T-H conditions in the near field, altered zone, and engineered barrier system (EBS), and on waste package (WP) surfaces.

  7. PATHS groundwater hydrologic model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nelson, R.W.; Schur, J.A.

    1980-04-01

    A preliminary evaluation capability for two-dimensional groundwater pollution problems was developed as part of the Transport Modeling Task for the Waste Isolation Safety Assessment Program (WISAP). Our approach was to use the data limitations as a guide in setting the level of modeling detail. PATHS Groundwater Hydrologic Model is the first level (simplest) idealized hybrid analytical/numerical model for two-dimensional, saturated groundwater flow and single component transport; homogeneous geology. This document consists of the description of the PATHS groundwater hydrologic model. The preliminary evaluation capability prepared for WISAP, including the enhancements that were made because of the authors' experience using the earlier capability is described. Appendixes A through D supplement the report as follows: complete derivations of the background equations are provided in Appendix A. Appendix B is a comprehensive set of instructions for users of PATHS. It is written for users who have little or no experience with computers. Appendix C is for the programmer. It contains information on how input parameters are passed between programs in the system. It also contains program listings and test case listing. Appendix D is a definition of terms.

  8. Models for dose assessments. Modules for various biosphere types

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bergstroem, U.; Nordlinder, S.; Aggeryd, I. [Studsvik Eco and Safety AB, Nykoeping (Sweden)

    1999-12-01

    The main objective of this study was to provide a basis for illustrations of yearly dose rates to the most exposed individual from hypothetical leakages of radionuclides from a deep bedrock repository for spent nuclear fuel and other radioactive waste. The results of this study will be used in the safety assessment SR 97 and in a study on the design and long-term safety for a repository planned to contain long-lived low and intermediate level waste. The repositories will be designed to isolate the radionuclides for several hundred thousands of years. In the SR 97 study, however, hypothetical scenarios for leakage are postulated. Radionuclides are hence assumed to be transported in the geosphere by groundwater, and probably discharge into the biosphere. This may occur in several types of ecosystems. A number of categories of such ecosystems were identified, and turnover of radionuclides was modelled separately for each ecosystem. Previous studies had focused on generic models for wells, lakes and coastal areas. These models were, in this study, developed further to use site-specific data. In addition, flows of groundwater, containing radionuclides, to agricultural land and peat bogs were considered. All these categories are referred to as modules in this report. The forest ecosystems were not included, due to a general lack of knowledge of biospheric processes in connection with discharge of groundwater in forested areas. Examples of each type of module were run with the assumption of a continuous annual release into the biosphere of 1 Bq for each radionuclide during 10 000 years. The results are presented as ecosystem specific dose conversion factors (EDFs) for each nuclide at the year 10 000, assuming stationary ecosystems and prevailing living conditions and habits. All calculations were performed with uncertainty analyses included. Simplifications and assumptions in the modelling of biospheric processes are discussed. The use of modules may be seen as a step

  9. Models for dose assessments. Modules for various biosphere types

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bergstroem, U.; Nordlinder, S.; Aggeryd, I.

    1999-12-01

    The main objective of this study was to provide a basis for illustrations of yearly dose rates to the most exposed individual from hypothetical leakages of radionuclides from a deep bedrock repository for spent nuclear fuel and other radioactive waste. The results of this study will be used in the safety assessment SR 97 and in a study on the design and long-term safety for a repository planned to contain long-lived low and intermediate level waste. The repositories will be designed to isolate the radionuclides for several hundred thousands of years. In the SR 97 study, however, hypothetical scenarios for leakage are postulated. Radionuclides are hence assumed to be transported in the geosphere by groundwater, and probably discharge into the biosphere. This may occur in several types of ecosystems. A number of categories of such ecosystems were identified, and turnover of radionuclides was modelled separately for each ecosystem. Previous studies had focused on generic models for wells, lakes and coastal areas. These models were, in this study, developed further to use site-specific data. In addition, flows of groundwater, containing radionuclides, to agricultural land and peat bogs were considered. All these categories are referred to as modules in this report. The forest ecosystems were not included, due to a general lack of knowledge of biospheric processes in connection with discharge of groundwater in forested areas. Examples of each type of module were run with the assumption of a continuous annual release into the biosphere of 1 Bq for each radionuclide during 10 000 years. The results are presented as ecosystem specific dose conversion factors (EDFs) for each nuclide at the year 10 000, assuming stationary ecosystems and prevailing living conditions and habits. All calculations were performed with uncertainty analyses included. Simplifications and assumptions in the modelling of biospheric processes are discussed. The use of modules may be seen as a step

  10. Post-closure biosphere assessment modelling: comparison of complex and more stylised approaches

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Walke, Russell C. [Quintessa Limited, The Hub, 14 Station Road, Henley-on-Thames (United Kingdom); Kirchner, Gerald [University of Hamburg, ZNF, Beim Schlump 83, 20144 Hamburg (Germany); Xu, Shulan; Dverstorp, Bjoern [Swedish Radiation Safety Authority, SE-171 16 Stockholm (Sweden)

    2014-07-01

    Geological facilities are the preferred option for disposal of high-level radioactive waste, due to their potential to provide isolation from the surface environment (biosphere) on very long time scales. Safety cases developed in support of geological disposal include assessment of potential impacts on humans and wildlife in order to demonstrate compliance with regulatory criteria. As disposal programmes move from site-independent/generic assessments through site selection to applications for construction/operation and closure, the degree of understanding of the present-day site increases, together with increased site-specific information. Assessments need to strike a balance between simple models and more complex approaches that draw more extensively on this site-specific information. This paper explores the relative merits of complex versus more stylised biosphere models in the context of a site-specific assessment. The complex biosphere model was developed by the Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co (SKB) for the Formark candidate site for a spent nuclear fuel repository in Sweden. SKB's model is built on a landscape evolution model, whereby radionuclide releases to distinct hydrological basins/sub-catchments (termed 'objects') are represented as they evolve through land rise and climate change. The site is located on the Baltic coast with a terrestrial landscape including lakes, mires, forest and agriculture. The land at the site is projected to continue to rise due to post-glacial uplift leading to ecosystem transitions in excess of ten thousand years. The simple biosphere models developed for this study include the most plausible transport processes and represent various types of ecosystem. The complex biosphere models adopt a relatively coarse representation of the near-surface strata, which is shown to be conservative, but also to under-estimate the time scale required for potential doses to reach equilibrium with radionuclide fluxes

  11. Biosphere model for assessing doses from nuclear waste disposal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zach, R.; Amiro, B.D.; Davis, P.A.; Sheppard, S.C.; Szekeley, J.G.

    1994-01-01

    The biosphere model, BIOTRAC, for predicting long term nuclide concentrations and radiological doses from Canada's nuclear fuel waste disposal concept of a vault deep in plutonic rock of the Canadian Shield is presented. This generic, boreal zone biosphere model is based on scenario analysis and systems variability analysis using Monte Carlo simulation techniques. Conservatism is used to bridge uncertainties, even though this creates a small amount of extra nuclide mass. Environmental change over the very long assessment period is mainly handled through distributed parameter values. The dose receptors are a critical group of humans and four generic non-human target organisms. BIOTRAC includes six integrated submodels and it interfaces smoothly with a geosphere model. This interface includes a bedrock well. The geosphere model defines the discharge zones of deep groundwater where nuclides released from the vault enter the biosphere occupied by the dose receptors. The size of one of these zones is reduced when water is withdrawn from the bedrock well. Sensitivity analysis indicates 129 I is by far the most important radionuclide. Results also show bedrock-well water leads to higher doses to man than lake water, but the former doses decrease with the size of the critical group. Under comparable circumstances, doses to the non-human biota are greater than those for man

  12. Hydrological models for environmental management

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Bolgov, Mikhail V

    2002-01-01

    .... Stochastic modelling and forecasting cannot at present adequately represent the characteristics of hydrological regimes, nor analyze the influence of water on processes that arise in biological...

  13. Radioactive waste management. International projects on biosphere modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carboneras, P.; Cancio, D.

    1993-01-01

    The paper presents a general overview and discussion on the state of art concerning the biospheric transfer and accumulation of contaminants. A special emphasis is given to the progress achieved in the field of radioactive contaminants and particularly to those implied in radioactive waste disposal. The objectives and advances of the international projects BIOMOVS and VAMP on validation of model predictions are also described. (Author)

  14. Biosphere modelling for the assessment of radioactive waste repositories: the development of a common basis by the BIOMOVS II working group on reference biospheres

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    VanDorp, F.

    1996-01-01

    Performance criteria for radioactive waste repositories are often expressed in terms of dose or risk. The characteristics of biosphere modelling for performance assessment are that: a) potential release occurs in the distant future, b) reliable predictions of human behaviour at the time of release are impracticable, and c) the biosphere is not considered to be a barrier. For these and other reasons, many unexplained differences have arisen in the approaches to biosphere modelling. The BIOMOVS II Working Group on Reference Biospheres has developed a) a recommended methodology for biosphere model development, b) a structured electronic list of features, events and processes (FEPs), and c) an illustrative example of the recommended methodology. The Working Group has successfully tested the Interaction Matrix (or Rock Engineering Systems, RES) approach for developing conceptual models. The BIOMOVS II Working Groups on Reference Biospheres and Complementary Studies have achieved considerable harmonisation in approaches to biosphere modelling. (author)

  15. NACP Regional: Original Observation Data and Biosphere and Inverse Model Outputs

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This data set contains the originally-submitted observation measurement data, terrestrial biosphere model output data, and inverse model simulations that various...

  16. NACP Regional: Original Observation Data and Biosphere and Inverse Model Outputs

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — ABSTRACT: This data set contains the originally-submitted observation measurement data, terrestrial biosphere model output data, and inverse model simulations that...

  17. The biosphere at Laxemar. Data, assumptions and models used in the SR-Can assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Karlsson, Sara; Kautsky, Ulrik; Loefgren, Anders; Soederbaeck, Bjoern [eds.

    2006-10-15

    This is essentially a compilation of a variety of reports concerning the site investigations, the research activities and information derived from other sources important for the safety assessment. The main objective is to present prerequisites, methods and data used, in the biosphere modelling for the safety assessment SR-Can at the Laxemar site. A major part of the report focuses on how site-specific data are used, recalculated or modified in order to be applicable in the safety assessment context; and the methods and sub-models that are the basis for the biosphere modelling. Furthermore, the assumptions made as to the future states of surface ecosystems are mainly presented in this report. A similar report is provided for the Forsmark area. This report summarises the method adopted for safety assessment following a radionuclide release into the biosphere. The approach utilises the information about the site as far as possible and presents a way of calculating risk to humans. A central tool in the work is the description of the topography, where there is good understanding of the present conditions and the development over time is fairly predictable. The topography affects surface hydrology, sedimentation, size of drainage areas and the characteristics of ecosystems. Other parameters are human nutritional intake, which is assumed to be constant over time, and primary production (photosynthesis), which also is a fairly constant parameter over time. The Landscape Dose Factor approach (LDF) gives an integrated measure for the site and also resolves the issues relating to the size of the group with highest exposure. If this approach is widely accepted as method, still some improvements and refinement are necessary in collecting missing site data, reanalysing site data, reviewing radionuclide specific data, reformulating ecosystem models and evaluating the results with further sensitivity analysis.

  18. The biosphere at Laxemar. Data, assumptions and models used in the SR-Can assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Karlsson, Sara; Kautsky, Ulrik; Loefgren, Anders; Soederbaeck, Bjoern

    2006-10-01

    This is essentially a compilation of a variety of reports concerning the site investigations, the research activities and information derived from other sources important for the safety assessment. The main objective is to present prerequisites, methods and data used, in the biosphere modelling for the safety assessment SR-Can at the Laxemar site. A major part of the report focuses on how site-specific data are used, recalculated or modified in order to be applicable in the safety assessment context; and the methods and sub-models that are the basis for the biosphere modelling. Furthermore, the assumptions made as to the future states of surface ecosystems are mainly presented in this report. A similar report is provided for the Forsmark area. This report summarises the method adopted for safety assessment following a radionuclide release into the biosphere. The approach utilises the information about the site as far as possible and presents a way of calculating risk to humans. A central tool in the work is the description of the topography, where there is good understanding of the present conditions and the development over time is fairly predictable. The topography affects surface hydrology, sedimentation, size of drainage areas and the characteristics of ecosystems. Other parameters are human nutritional intake, which is assumed to be constant over time, and primary production (photosynthesis), which also is a fairly constant parameter over time. The Landscape Dose Factor approach (LDF) gives an integrated measure for the site and also resolves the issues relating to the size of the group with highest exposure. If this approach is widely accepted as method, still some improvements and refinement are necessary in collecting missing site data, reanalysing site data, reviewing radionuclide specific data, reformulating ecosystem models and evaluating the results with further sensitivity analysis

  19. Uncertainty in hydrological change modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Seaby, Lauren Paige

    applied at the grid scale. Flux and state hydrological outputs which integrate responses over time and space showed more sensitivity to precipitation mean spatial biases and less so on extremes. In the investigated catchments, the projected change of groundwater levels and basin discharge between current......Hydrological change modelling methodologies generally use climate models outputs to force hydrological simulations under changed conditions. There are nested sources of uncertainty throughout this methodology, including choice of climate model and subsequent bias correction methods. This Ph.......D. study evaluates the uncertainty of the impact of climate change in hydrological simulations given multiple climate models and bias correction methods of varying complexity. Three distribution based scaling methods (DBS) were developed and benchmarked against a more simplistic and commonly used delta...

  20. Data assimilation in hydrological modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Drecourt, Jean-Philippe

    Data assimilation is an invaluable tool in hydrological modelling as it allows to efficiently combine scarce data with a numerical model to obtain improved model predictions. In addition, data assimilation also provides an uncertainty analysis of the predictions made by the hydrological model....... In this thesis, the Kalman filter is used for data assimilation with a focus on groundwater modelling. However the developed techniques are general and can be applied also in other modelling domains. Modelling involves conceptualization of the processes of Nature. Data assimilation provides a way to deal...... with model non-linearities and biased errors. A literature review analyzes the most popular techniques and their application in hydrological modelling. Since bias is an important problem in groundwater modelling, two bias aware Kalman filters have been implemented and compared using an artificial test case...

  1. Stochastic Modelling of Hydrologic Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jonsdottir, Harpa

    2007-01-01

    In this PhD project several stochastic modelling methods are studied and applied on various subjects in hydrology. The research was prepared at Informatics and Mathematical Modelling at the Technical University of Denmark. The thesis is divided into two parts. The first part contains...... an introduction and an overview of the papers published. Then an introduction to basic concepts in hydrology along with a description of hydrological data is given. Finally an introduction to stochastic modelling is given. The second part contains the research papers. In the research papers the stochastic methods...... are described, as at the time of publication these methods represent new contribution to hydrology. The second part also contains additional description of software used and a brief introduction to stiff systems. The system in one of the papers is stiff....

  2. Radioecological modelling of the biosphere as illustrated by the example of the model area Oberbauenstock

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boehringer, J.; Fritschi, M.; Schwanner, I.; Resele, G.

    1986-06-01

    The biosphere model is the final link in the chain of radionuclide transport models used for radiation dose calculations for nuclear waste repositories. The dispersion of radionuclides from a low and intermediate level waste repository in the biosphere and their uptake by man through food pathways is investigated with a compartment model. The relevant biosphere parameters were based on the model site at Oberbauenstock and compiled as a model data set for further use in the biosphere modelling. Nuclide concentrations in the biosphere compartments and foodstuffs as well as annual individual radiation doses are calculated with the computer program BIOSPH. The present report contains a description of the model area and its subdivision into 4 compartments, a compilation of the relevant parameters and the simplifying assumptions that have been made, discussion of mathematical modelling of nuclide transport in the biosphere and of the calculation of the individual radiation doses, a technical description of the computer program BIOSPH and a detailed presentation of the results from the model calculations. (author)

  3. “Black Swans” of Hydrology: Can our Models Address the Science of Hydrologic Change?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, P.

    2009-12-01

    Coupled models of terrestrial hydrology and climate have grown in complexity leading to better understanding of the coupling between the hydrosphere, biosphere, and the climate system. During the past two decades, these models have evolved through generational changes as they have grown in sophistication in their ability to resolve spatial heterogeneity as well as vegetation dynamics and biogeochemistry. These developments have, in part, been driven by data collection efforts ranging from focused field campaigns to long-term observational networks, advances in remote sensing and other measurement technologies, along with sophisticated estimation and assimilation methods. However, the hydrologic cycle is changing leading to unexpected and unanticipated behavior through emergent dynamics and patterns that are not part of the historical milieu. Is there a new thinking that is needed to address this challenge? The goal of this talk is to draw from the modeling developments in the past two decades to foster a debate for moving forward.

  4. Mathematical modelling of fracture hydrology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Herbert, A.W.; Hodgkinson, D.P.; Lever, D.A.; Robinson, P.C.; Rae, J.

    1985-06-01

    This report summarises the work performed between January 1983 and December 1984 for the CEC/DOE contract 'Mathematical Modelling of Fracture Hydrology', under the following headings: 1) Statistical fracture network modelling, 2) Continuum models of flow and transport, 3) Simplified models, 4) Analysis of laboratory experiments and 5) Analysis of field experiments. (author)

  5. Virtual hydrology observatory: an immersive visualization of hydrology modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Su, Simon; Cruz-Neira, Carolina; Habib, Emad; Gerndt, Andreas

    2009-02-01

    The Virtual Hydrology Observatory will provide students with the ability to observe the integrated hydrology simulation with an instructional interface by using a desktop based or immersive virtual reality setup. It is the goal of the virtual hydrology observatory application to facilitate the introduction of field experience and observational skills into hydrology courses through innovative virtual techniques that mimic activities during actual field visits. The simulation part of the application is developed from the integrated atmospheric forecast model: Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF), and the hydrology model: Gridded Surface/Subsurface Hydrologic Analysis (GSSHA). Both the output from WRF and GSSHA models are then used to generate the final visualization components of the Virtual Hydrology Observatory. The various visualization data processing techniques provided by VTK are 2D Delaunay triangulation and data optimization. Once all the visualization components are generated, they are integrated into the simulation data using VRFlowVis and VR Juggler software toolkit. VR Juggler is used primarily to provide the Virtual Hydrology Observatory application with fully immersive and real time 3D interaction experience; while VRFlowVis provides the integration framework for the hydrologic simulation data, graphical objects and user interaction. A six-sided CAVETM like system is used to run the Virtual Hydrology Observatory to provide the students with a fully immersive experience.

  6. An overview of biosphere modelling for the assessment of solid waste disposal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, G.M.

    1990-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to discuss the role of biosphere modelling in relation to the overall assessment of disposal of solid radioactive waste. Model structure and data requirements are strongly influenced by a number of basic factors. Firstly, the alternative forms of safety criteria and regulatory requirements imply different end-points for biosphere models. Secondly, alternative disposal concepts can influence the significance of the biosphere as a barrier or diluting/concentrating feature affecting exposure of man. Thirdly, the range of different possibilities for release to the biosphere, including releases following intrusion, is very extensive. The requirements and state of development of biosphere models are discussed in relation to these factors along with methods being adopted to provide some expression of confidence in model results. 37 refs

  7. Evaluation of Features, Events, and Processes (FEP) for the Biosphere Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    M. Wasiolek; P. Rogers

    2004-10-27

    The purpose of this analysis report is to evaluate and document the inclusion or exclusion of biosphere features, events, and processes (FEPs) with respect to modeling used to support the total system performance assessment (TSPA) for the license application (LA). A screening decision, either ''Included'' or ''Excluded'', is given for each FEP along with the corresponding technical basis for the excluded FEPs and the descriptions of how the included FEPs were incorporated in the biosphere model. This information is required by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) regulations at 10 CFR 63.114 (d, e, and f) [DIRS 156605]. The FEPs addressed in this report concern characteristics of the reference biosphere, the receptor, and the environmental transport and receptor exposure pathways for the groundwater and volcanic ash exposure scenarios considered in biosphere modeling. This revision provides the summary of the implementation of included FEPs in TSPA-LA, (i.e., how the FEP is included); for excluded FEPs, this analysis provides the technical basis for exclusion from TSPA-LA (i.e., why the FEP is excluded). This report is one of the 10 documents constituting the biosphere model documentation suite. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the biosphere model is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows the interrelationships among the products (i.e., analysis and model reports) developed for biosphere modeling. The ''Biosphere Model Report'' describes in detail the biosphere conceptual model and mathematical model. The input parameter reports shown to the right of the ''Biosphere Model Report'' contain detailed descriptions of the model input parameters and their development. Outputs from these six reports are used in the ''Nominal Performance Biosphere Dose Conversion Factor Analysis and Disruptive Event Biosphere Dose Conversion Factor Analysis

  8. Application of a generic biosphere model for dose assessments to five European sites

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, Q; Kowe, R; Mobbs, S F; Proehl, G; Olyslaegers, G; Zeevaert, T; Kanyar, B; Pinedo, P; Simon, I; Bergstroem, U; Hallberg, B; Jones, J A; Oatway, W B; Watson, S J

    2006-01-01

    The BIOMOSA (BIOsphere MOdels for Safety Assessment of radioactive waste disposal) project was part of the EC fifth framework research programme. The main goal of this project was to improve the scientific basis for the application of biosphere models in the framework of long-term safety studies of radioactive waste disposal facilities and to enhance the confidence in using biosphere models for performance assessments. The study focused on the development and application of a generic biosphere tool BIOGEM (BIOsphere GEneric Model) using the IAEA BIOMASS reference biosphere methodology, and the comparison between BIOGEM and five site-specific biosphere models. The site-specific models and the generic model were applied to five typical locations in Europe, resulting in estimates of the annual effective individual doses to the critical groups and the ranking of the importance of the exposure pathways for each of the sites. Uncertainty in the results was also estimated by means of stochastic calculations based on variation of the site-specific parameter values. This paper describes the generic model and the deterministic and stochastic results obtained when it was applied to the five sites. Details of the site-specific models and the corresponding results are described in two companion papers. This paper also presents a comparison of the results between the generic model and site-specific models. In general, there was an acceptable agreement of the BIOGEM for both the deterministic and stochastic results with the results from the site-specific models

  9. A model of accumulation of radionuclides in biosphere originating from groundwater contamination

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gaerdenaes, Annemieke [Swedish Univ. of Agricultural Sciences, Uppsala (Sweden). Dept. of Soil Sciences; Jansson, Per-Erik; Karlberg, Louise [Royal Inst. of Technology, Stockholm (Sweden). Dept. Land and Water Resources

    2006-03-15

    radioactive element is represented as a state variable in different plant parts (stem, leaves, roots and grain) and in soil layers as attached to soil organic matter fractions (litter and humus), solved in soil water solution and adsorbed to soil particles. The importance of the different plant uptake models and their parameterization for accumulation of radionuclides in the biosphere was demonstrated by a model application of a mature boreal forest for a 20 years period with an initial single pulse groundwater contamination. The passive uptake approach was used to demonstrate importance of root depth, allocation to leaves and different scaling to the water uptake rate. The active uptake approach was used to demonstrate the importance of adsorption fraction, bioavailability and optimum ratio of leaf carbon and radionuclide. After 20 years, 9% of the originally added radionuclide had accumulated in the biosphere when assuming no plant uptake. Corresponding numbers for passive and active uptake were 12-37% and 35-44% respectively. The percentages accumulated using passive uptake was most sensitive to tested range of rooting depth and ones using active uptake to tested range of optimum ratio of leaf carbon and radionuclide. We conclude that the introduced module was able to simulate different possible plant uptake mechanisms and hydrological conditions. Further dynamically modeling studies are important to analyze the effect of a continuous contamination on long term (10,000 years) accumulation in biosphere for various specific radionuclides, ecosystems and climatic conditions.

  10. A model of accumulation of radionuclides in biosphere originating from groundwater contamination

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gaerdenaes, Annemieke; Jansson, Per-Erik; Karlberg, Louise

    2006-03-01

    radioactive element is represented as a state variable in different plant parts (stem, leaves, roots and grain) and in soil layers as attached to soil organic matter fractions (litter and humus), solved in soil water solution and adsorbed to soil particles. The importance of the different plant uptake models and their parameterization for accumulation of radionuclides in the biosphere was demonstrated by a model application of a mature boreal forest for a 20 years period with an initial single pulse groundwater contamination. The passive uptake approach was used to demonstrate importance of root depth, allocation to leaves and different scaling to the water uptake rate. The active uptake approach was used to demonstrate the importance of adsorption fraction, bioavailability and optimum ratio of leaf carbon and radionuclide. After 20 years, 9% of the originally added radionuclide had accumulated in the biosphere when assuming no plant uptake. Corresponding numbers for passive and active uptake were 12-37% and 35-44% respectively. The percentages accumulated using passive uptake was most sensitive to tested range of rooting depth and ones using active uptake to tested range of optimum ratio of leaf carbon and radionuclide. We conclude that the introduced module was able to simulate different possible plant uptake mechanisms and hydrological conditions. Further dynamically modeling studies are important to analyze the effect of a continuous contamination on long term (10,000 years) accumulation in biosphere for various specific radionuclides, ecosystems and climatic conditions

  11. Model Calibration in Watershed Hydrology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yilmaz, Koray K.; Vrugt, Jasper A.; Gupta, Hoshin V.; Sorooshian, Soroosh

    2009-01-01

    Hydrologic models use relatively simple mathematical equations to conceptualize and aggregate the complex, spatially distributed, and highly interrelated water, energy, and vegetation processes in a watershed. A consequence of process aggregation is that the model parameters often do not represent directly measurable entities and must, therefore, be estimated using measurements of the system inputs and outputs. During this process, known as model calibration, the parameters are adjusted so that the behavior of the model approximates, as closely and consistently as possible, the observed response of the hydrologic system over some historical period of time. This Chapter reviews the current state-of-the-art of model calibration in watershed hydrology with special emphasis on our own contributions in the last few decades. We discuss the historical background that has led to current perspectives, and review different approaches for manual and automatic single- and multi-objective parameter estimation. In particular, we highlight the recent developments in the calibration of distributed hydrologic models using parameter dimensionality reduction sampling, parameter regularization and parallel computing.

  12. Radionuclide transport and dose assessment modelling in biosphere assessment 2009

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hjerpe, T.; Broed, R.

    2010-11-01

    Following the guidelines set forth by the Ministry of Trade and Industry (now Ministry of Employment and Economy), Posiva is preparing to submit a construction license application for the final disposal spent nuclear fuel at the Olkiluoto site, Finland, by the end of the year 2012. Disposal will take place in a geological repository implemented according to the KBS-3 method. The long-term safety section supporting the license application will be based on a safety case that, according to the internationally adopted definition, will be a compilation of the evidence, analyses and arguments that quantify and substantiate the safety and the level of expert confidence in the safety of the planned repository. This report documents in detail the conceptual and mathematical models and key data used in the landscape model set-up, radionuclide transport modelling, and radiological consequences analysis applied in the 2009 biosphere assessment. Resulting environmental activity concentrations in landscape model due to constant unit geosphere release rates, and the corresponding annual doses, are also calculated and presented in this report. This provides the basis for understanding the behaviour of the applied landscape model and subsequent dose calculations. (orig.)

  13. Developments in radiological assessment and biosphere modelling studies to support radioactive waste disposal in Spain

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Perez-Sanchez, D. [Centro de Investigaciones Energeticas, Medioambientales y Tecnologicas - CIEMAT (Spain); Thorne, M. [Mike Thorne and Associates Limited (United States)

    2014-07-01

    Long-term safety assessments for the disposal of radioactive waste in Spain involve the demonstration that annual radiation doses to humans due to potential releases of radionuclides from the waste disposal facility into the biosphere will satisfy the regulatory criteria. For several years, CIEMAT has been developing, for ENRESA, a conceptual approach and tool to support modelling of the migration and accumulation of radionuclides within environmental media once those radionuclides have been released to some component of the biosphere (atmosphere, water bodies or soils). The CIEMAT modelling approach calculates the concentrations of radionuclides in different components of the biosphere and then the calculated radionuclide concentrations are used to estimate the radiation doses to humans due to various exposure paths. In this paper, we not only describe the methodology and modelling approach, we also describe recent developments of that approach to better quantify the resultant doses to humans. First, we present recent developments in the mathematical model for the behaviour of {sup 79}Se and {sup 238}U-series radionuclides in soils and their uptake by plants, taking into account seasonal variations in soil hydrology in Spain. Initial studies with the model that are reported here demonstrate that it is a powerful tool for exploring the behaviour of redox-sensitive radionuclides and {sup 238}U decay chain members in soil-plant systems under different hydrological regimes. In particular, it permits studies of the degree to which secular equilibrium assumptions are appropriate when modelling the {sup 238}U decay chain. Further studies are currently being undertaken examining sensitivities of model results to input parameter values and also applying the model to sites contaminated with {sup 238}U-series radionuclides. It is anticipated that results from these studies will also be reported. A particular interest in biosphere safety assessment is how environmental

  14. Relevance of the Paraná River hydrology on the fluvial water quality of the Delta Biosphere Reserve.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Puig, Alba; Olguín Salinas, Héctor F; Borús, Juan A

    2016-06-01

    The increasing frequency of extreme events in large rivers may affect not only their flow, but also their water quality. In the present study, spatial and temporal changes in fluvial physico-chemical variables were analyzed in a mega-river delta during two extreme hydrological years (La Niña-El Niño) and related to potential explanatory factors. Basic water variables were evaluated in situ at 13 points (distant 2-35 km from each other) in watercourses of the Delta Biosphere Reserve (890 km(2)) in the Lower Paraná River (Argentina) in nine surveys (October 2008-July 2010) without meteorological tides. Samples for laboratory analyses were collected from each main river. Multivariate tests by permutations were applied. The period studied was influenced by a drought, within a long period dominated by low flows combined with dry weather and wildfires, and a large (10 years of recurrence) and prolonged (7 months) flood. The hydrological phase, followed by the season and the hydrological year (according to the ENSO event) were the principal explanatory factors of the main water quality changes, whereas the drainage sub-basin and the fluvial environment (river or stream) were secondary explanatory factors. During the drought period, conductivity, turbidity, and associated variables (e.g., major ions, silicon, and iron concentrations) were maximal, whereas real color was minimal. In the overbanking flood phase, pH and dissolved oxygen concentration were minimal, whereas real color was maximal. Dissolved oxygen saturation was also low in the receding flood phase and total major ion load doubled after the arrival of the overbanking stage. The water quality of these watercourses may be affected by the combination of several influences, such as the Paraná River flow, the pulses with sediments and solutes from the Bermejo River, the export of the Delta floodplain properties mainly by the flood, the season, and the saline tributaries to the Lower Paraná River. The high

  15. Biosphere modelling for a HLW repository - scenario and parameter variations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grogan, H.

    1985-03-01

    In Switzerland high-level radioactive wastes have been considered for disposal in deep-lying crystalline formations. The individual doses to man resulting from radionuclides entering the biosphere via groundwater transport are calculated. The main recipient area modelled, which constitutes the base case, is a broad gravel terrace sited along the south bank of the river Rhine. An alternative recipient region, a small valley with a well, is also modelled. A number of parameter variations are performed in order to ascertain their impact on the doses. Finally two scenario changes are modelled somewhat simplistically, these consider different prevailing climates, namely tundra and a warmer climate than present. In the base case negligibly low doses to man in the long term, resulting from the existence of a HLW repository have been calculated. Cs-135 results in the largest dose (8.4E-7 mrem/y at 6.1E+6 y) while Np-237 gives the largest dose from the actinides (3.6E-8 mrem/y). The response of the model to parameter variations cannot be easily predicted due to non-linear coupling of many of the parameters. However, the calculated doses were negligibly low in all cases as were those resulting from the two scenario variations. (author)

  16. Biosphere modelling for the assessment of radioactive waste repositories; the development of a common basis by the BIOMOVS II reference biospheres working group

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dorp, F. van; Egan, M.; Kessler, J.H.; Nilsson, S.; Pinedo, P.; Smith, G.; Torres, C.

    1998-01-01

    Performance criteria for radioactive waste repositories are often expressed in terms of dose or risk. The characteristics of biosphere modelling for performance assessment are that: (a) potential release occurs in the distant future, (b) reliable predictions of human behaviour at the time of release are impracticable, and (c) the biosphere is not considered to be a barrier as the geosphere and the engineered barriers. For these and other reasons, differences have arisen in the approaches to biosphere modelling for repository dose and risk assessment. The BIOMOVS II Reference Biospheres Working Group has developed (a) a recommended methodology for biosphere model development, (b) a structured list of features, events and processes (FEPs) which the model should describe, and (c) an illustrative example of the recommended methodology. The Working Group has successfully tested the Interaction Matrix (or Rock Engineering Systems, RES) approach for developing conceptual models. The BIOMOVS II Working Groups on Reference Biospheres and Complementary Studies have laid the basis for considerable harmonisation in approaches to biosphere modelling of long term radionuclide releases. (Copyright (c) 1998 Elsevier Science B.V., Amsterdam. All rights reserved.)

  17. Biosphere modeling in waste disposal safety assessments -- An example using the terrestrial-aquatic model of the environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Klos, R.A.

    1998-01-01

    Geological disposal of radioactive wastes is intended to provide long-term isolation of potentially harmful radionuclides from the human environment and the biosphere. The long timescales involved pose unique problems for biosphere modeling because there are considerable uncertainties regarding the state of the biosphere into which releases might ultimately occur. The key to representing the biosphere in long-timescale assessments is the flexibility with which those aspects of the biosphere that are of relevance to dose calculations are represented, and this comes from the way in which key biosphere features, events, and processes are represented in model codes. How this is done in contemporary assessments is illustrated by the Terrestrial-Aquatic Model of the Environment (TAME), an advanced biosphere model for waste disposal assessments recently developed in Switzerland. A numerical example of the release of radionuclides from a subterranean source to an inland valley biosphere is used to illustrate how biosphere modeling is carried out and the practical ways in which meaningful quantitative results can be achieved. The results emphasize the potential for accumulation of radionuclides in the biosphere over long timescales and also illustrate the role of parameter values in such modeling

  18. The biosphere at Forsmark. Data, assumptions and models used in the SR-Can assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Karlsson, Sara; Kautsky, Ulrik; Loefgren, Anders; Soederbaeck, Bjoern

    2006-10-01

    This report summarises the method adopted for safety assessment following a radionuclide release into the biosphere. The approach utilises the information about the site as far as possible and presents a way of calculating risk to humans. The parameters are topography, where there is good understanding of the present conditions and the development over time is fairly predictable. The topography affects surface hydrology, sedimentation, size of drainage areas and the characteristics of ecosystems. Other parameters are human nutritional intake, which is assumed to be constant over time, and primary production (photosynthesis), which also is a fairly constant parameter over time. The Landscape Dose Factor approach (LDF) gives an integrated measure for the site and also resolves the issues relating to the size of the group with highest exposure. If this approach is widely accepted as method, still some improvements and refinement are necessary, e.g. collecting missing site data, reanalysing site data, reviewing radionuclide specific data, reformulating ecosystem models and evaluating the results with further sensitivity analysis. The report presents descriptions and estimates not presented elsewhere, as well as summaries of important steps in the biosphere modelling that are presented in more detail in separate reports. The intention is to give the reader a coherent description of the steps taken to calculate doses to biota and humans, including a description of the data used, the rationale for a number of assumptions made during parameterisation, and of how the landscape context is applied in the modelling, and also to present the models used and the results obtained

  19. The biosphere at Forsmark. Data, assumptions and models used in the SR-Can assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Karlsson, Sara; Kautsky, Ulrik; Loefgren, Anders; Soederbaeck, Bjoern [eds.

    2006-10-15

    This report summarises the method adopted for safety assessment following a radionuclide release into the biosphere. The approach utilises the information about the site as far as possible and presents a way of calculating risk to humans. The parameters are topography, where there is good understanding of the present conditions and the development over time is fairly predictable. The topography affects surface hydrology, sedimentation, size of drainage areas and the characteristics of ecosystems. Other parameters are human nutritional intake, which is assumed to be constant over time, and primary production (photosynthesis), which also is a fairly constant parameter over time. The Landscape Dose Factor approach (LDF) gives an integrated measure for the site and also resolves the issues relating to the size of the group with highest exposure. If this approach is widely accepted as method, still some improvements and refinement are necessary, e.g. collecting missing site data, reanalysing site data, reviewing radionuclide specific data, reformulating ecosystem models and evaluating the results with further sensitivity analysis. The report presents descriptions and estimates not presented elsewhere, as well as summaries of important steps in the biosphere modelling that are presented in more detail in separate reports. The intention is to give the reader a coherent description of the steps taken to calculate doses to biota and humans, including a description of the data used, the rationale for a number of assumptions made during parameterisation, and of how the landscape context is applied in the modelling, and also to present the models used and the results obtained.

  20. 'Reference Biospheres' for solid radioactive waste disposal. Report of BIOMASS Theme 1 of the BIOsphere Modelling and ASSessment (BIOMASS) Programme. Part of the IAEA Co-ordinated Research Project on Biosphere Modelling and Assessment (BIOMASS)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2003-07-01

    The IAEA Programme on BIOsphere Modelling and ASSessment (BIOMASS) was launched in Vienna in October 1996. The programme was concerned with developing and improving capabilities to predict the transfer of radionuclides in the environment. The programme had three themes: Theme 1: Radioactive Waste Disposal. The objective was to develop the concept of a standard or reference biosphere for application to the assessment of the long-term safety of repositories for radioactive waste. Under the general heading of 'Reference Biospheres', six Task Groups were established: Task Group 1: Principles for the Definition of Critical and Other Exposure Groups. Task Group 2: Principles for the Application of Data to Assessment Models. Task Group 3: Consideration of Alternative Assessment Contexts. Task Group 4: Biosphere System Identification and Justification. Task Group 5: Biosphere System Descriptions. Task Group 6: Model Development. Theme 2: Environmental Releases. BIOMASS provided an international forum for activities aimed at increasing the confidence in methods and models for the assessment of radiation exposure related to environmental releases. Two Working Groups addressed issues concerned with the reconstruction of radiation doses received by people from past releases of radionuclides to the environment and the evaluation of the efficacy of remedial measures. Theme 3: Biosphere Processes. The aim of this Theme was to improve capabilities for modelling the transfer of radionuclides in particular parts of the biosphere identified as being of potential radiological significance and where there were gaps in modelling approaches. This topic was explored using a range of methods including reviews of the literature, model inter-comparison exercises and, where possible, model testing against independent sources of data. Three Working Groups were established to examine the modelling of: (1) long term tritium dispersion in the environment; (2) radionuclide uptake by fruits; and (3

  1. Mathematical modelling of fracture hydrology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rae, J.; Hodgkinson, D.P.; Robinson, P.C.; Herbert, A.W.

    1984-04-01

    This progress report contains notes on three aspects of hydrological modelling. Work on hydrodynamic dispersion in fractured media has been extended to transverse dispersion. Further work has been done on diffusion into the rock matrix and its effect on solute transport. The program NAMSOL has been used for the MIRAGE code comparison exercise being organised by Atkins R and D. (author)

  2. SiB3 Modeled Global 1-degree Hourly Biosphere-Atmosphere Carbon Flux, 1998-2006

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Simple Biosphere Model, Version 3 (SiB3) was used to produce a global data set of hourly carbon fluxes between the atmosphere and the terrestrial biosphere for...

  3. The development of a surface hydrology model for use in radiological safety assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Little, R.H.; Ashton, J.

    1991-01-01

    A detailed understanding and quantification of geosphere and biosphere water movements is vital when assessing the impact of a radioactive waste repository. Not only is water important in the transport of radionuclides from the repository into the geosphere and hence into the biosphere, but it is also important in the transport of radionuclides within the biosphere and their transport to humans. Although geosphere water fluxes have traditionally been rigorously quantified, the quantification of biosphere water fluxes has been far less rigorous. In order to redress the balance, Associated Nuclear Services Ltd (ANS) have proposed to develop a surface hydrology model for use within radiological assessments undertaken by Her Majesty's Inspectorate of Pollution (HMIP) of the United Kingdom Department of the Environment (UKDoE). It is proposed that the deterministic, lumped, quasi-physical/semi-empirical approach of conceptual models should be adopted for the model. The model will be sufficiently flexible to be applicable to a wide range of catchments, as well as a variety of temporal and spatial scales. It is envisaged that the model will have a variety of uses within the HMIP assessment methodology including the identification of significant surface hydrological processes, the provision of input data for assessment codes and the study of the biosphere-geosphere interface. (17 refs., 4 figs.)

  4. Integrated climate and hydrology modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Morten Andreas Dahl

    To ensure optimal management and sustainable strategies for water resources, infrastructures, food production and ecosystems there is a need for an improved understanding of feedback and interaction mechanisms between the atmosphere and the land surface. This is especially true in light of expected...... global warming and increased frequency of extreme events. The skill in developing projections of both the present and future climate depends essentially on the ability to numerically simulate the processes of atmospheric circulation, hydrology, energy and ecology. Previous modelling efforts of climate...... and hydrology models to more directly include the interaction between the atmosphere and the land surface. The present PhD study is motivated by an ambition of developing and applying a modelling tool capable of including the interaction and feedback mechanisms between the atmosphere and the land surface...

  5. European-wide simulations of croplands using an improved terrestrial biosphere model: Phenology and productivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, P. C.; de Noblet-Ducoudré, N.; Ciais, P.; Peylin, P.; Viovy, N.; Meurdesoif, Y.; Bondeau, A.

    2010-03-01

    Aiming at producing improved estimates of carbon source/sink spatial and interannual patterns across Europe (35% croplands), this work combines the terrestrial biosphere model Organizing Carbon and Hydrology in Dynamic Ecosystems (ORCHIDEE), for vegetation productivity, water balance, and soil carbon dynamics, and the generic crop model Simulateur Multidisciplinaire pour les Cultures Standard (STICS), for phenology, irrigation, nitrogen balance, and harvest. The ORCHIDEE-STICS model, relying on three plant functional types for the representation of temperate agriculture, is evaluated over the last few decades at various spatial and temporal resolutions. The simulated leaf area index seasonal cycle is largely improved relative to the original ORCHIDEE simulating grasslands, and compares favorably with remote-sensing observations (correlation doubles over Europe). Crop yield is derived from annual net primary productivity and compared with wheat and grain maize harvest data for five European countries. Discrepancies between 30 year mean simulated and reported yields are large in Mediterranean countries. Interannual variability amplitude expressed relative to the mean is reduced toward the observed variability (≈10%) when using ORCHIDEE-STICS. Overall, this study highlights the importance of accounting for the specific phenologies of crops sown both in winter and in spring and for irrigation applied to spring crops in regional/global models of the terrestrial carbon cycle. Limitations suggest to account for temporal and spatial variability in agricultural practices for further simulation improvement.

  6. Biosphere transport of radionuclides. First modelling by using a selected example

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bundi, A.

    1984-12-01

    The dispersion of radionuclides in the biosphere and their uptake by man via various nutritional pathways is studied using a compartment model. The sample environment is the area of the lower Limmat and Aare valleys. General considerations of the compartmental description of the biosphere are made. The problem of the description of surface features, in particular soil, sediment and water, is studied in detail using the code BIOPATH. This study is intended to be an example of how a model of the biosphere could be constructed. It is shown that this is a reasonable model to calculate the spreading of radionuclides in the biosphere and that it indicates the relative significance of individual compartments, pathways and radionuclides. Calculated values of doses to man, however, should not be used as reference data for safety analyses. (author)

  7. Mathematical modelling of fracture hydrology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Herbert, A.W.; Hodgkindon, D.P.; Lever, D.A.; Robinson, P.C.; Rae, J.

    1985-01-01

    This report reviews work carried out between January 1983 and December 1984 for the CEC/DOE contract 'Mathematical Modelling of Fracture Hydrology' which forms part of the CEC Mirage project (CEC 1984. Come 1985. Bourke et. al. 1983). It describes the development and use of a variety of mathematical models for the flow of water and transport of radionuclides in flowing groundwater. These models have an important role to play in assessing the long-term safety of radioactive waste burial, and in the planning and interpretation of associated experiments. The work is reported under five headings, namely 1) Statistical fracture network modelling, 2) Continuum models of flow and transport, 3) Simplified models, 4) Analysis of laboratory experiments, 5) Analysis of field experiments

  8. Illstrative probabilistic biosphere model for Yucca Mountain individual risk calculations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilems, R.E.

    1994-01-01

    The proposed EPA Standards for the disposal of spent fuel, high-level and transuranic radioactive waste prescribe future biosphere--one in which no sustained human activity occurs inside the controlled zone, yet sustained use of groundwater occurs just outside the controlled zone boundary. Performance assessments have generally assumed a person at this location extracts all his water needs directly from the projected contaminated plume for all of his life. Dose to this maximally-exposed individual is too conservative a measure of performance for a nuclear waste repository and does not reflect the isolation characteristics of a site. A better measure is individual risk in which uncertainties in biosphere characteristics for the longer periods of performance, for a site like Yucca Mountain only those characteristics associated with well water scenarios need be prescribed. Such a prescription of the biosphere is appropriate because the goal of the regulations is to provide indicators of future performance so the regulators can make a responsible decision regarding reasonable assurance of public health and safety

  9. The status of world biosphere modelling for waste disposal assessments following BIOMOVS II

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Klos, R.; Reid, J.A.K.; Santucci, P.; Bergstrom, U.

    1996-01-01

    Biosphere modelling for radioactive waste disposal assessments faces unique problems. Models for such applications tend to be quite distinct from other similar environmental assessment tools. Over the past few years, two of the Working Groups in the second international biosphere model validation study (BIOMOVS II) have been considering the special requirements for such models. The BIOMOVS II Reference Biospheres Working Group has concentrated on the elaboration of the methodology for the definition of models for such assessments. lie Complementary Studies Working Group has dealt with how the Features, Events and Processes (FEPS) included in the participating models are represented, in the context of the representation of a temperate inland biosphere. The aim of Complementary Studies was to move forward from the first phase of BIOMOVS, with the analysis going further and deeper into principles on which the participating models are based. Ten of the leading models from around the world have participated in the Complementary Studies model intercomparison exercise. This paper presents some key findings using the international biosphere FEP-list produced by the Reference Biospheres Working Group as a framework for discussing the current state-of-the-art. Common features of the models as well as reasons for the model differences are discussed. Areas where the international community could benefit from a harmonisation of approaches are also identified, setting out possible future requirements and developments. In the Complementary Studies intercomparison, the hypothetical release of radionuclides to an inland valley biosphere was considered. The radionuclides considered in the study were selected because of their relevance for underground repositories for long-lived radioactive wastes and because their individual properties made them suitable probes for many of the important Features, Events and Processes (FEPS) in long timescale biosphere modelling. The data

  10. Modeling Subsurface Hydrology in Floodplains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evans, Cristina M.; Dritschel, David G.; Singer, Michael B.

    2018-03-01

    Soil-moisture patterns in floodplains are highly dynamic, owing to the complex relationships between soil properties, climatic conditions at the surface, and the position of the water table. Given this complexity, along with climate change scenarios in many regions, there is a need for a model to investigate the implications of different conditions on water availability to riparian vegetation. We present a model, HaughFlow, which is able to predict coupled water movement in the vadose and phreatic zones of hydraulically connected floodplains. Model output was calibrated and evaluated at six sites in Australia to identify key patterns in subsurface hydrology. This study identifies the importance of the capillary fringe in vadose zone hydrology due to its water storage capacity and creation of conductive pathways. Following peaks in water table elevation, water can be stored in the capillary fringe for up to months (depending on the soil properties). This water can provide a critical resource for vegetation that is unable to access the water table. When water table peaks coincide with heavy rainfall events, the capillary fringe can support saturation of the entire soil profile. HaughFlow is used to investigate the water availability to riparian vegetation, producing daily output of water content in the soil over decadal time periods within different depth ranges. These outputs can be summarized to support scientific investigations of plant-water relations, as well as in management applications.

  11. A biosphere model for use in the SKI Project SITE-94

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barrdahl, R.A.G.

    1995-04-01

    A simple biosphere model has been designed for use in the SKI Project SITE-94 related to a hypothetical repository for spent nuclear fuel on the island of Aespoe near Oskarshamn in southern Sweden. The model provides results in terms of radiation dose per Bq/y, unless otherwise indicated, and results will thus have to be scaled with actual flux of radionuclides per year entering the primary biosphere recipients. The model does not include radioactive decay as there is assumed no delay in the model system, except for where explicitly mentioned. Specifically, no radioactive transitions resulting in daughter nuclides are considered. Calculated yearly individual and population committed (50 years) radiation doses to man are expressed in terms of Sv/y and radiation dose rates to fish are expressed as mSv/h. Calculated radiation doses resulting from the present biosphere model are hypothetical, and should under no circumstances be considered as real. Neither should they be used as quantitative information for decision purposes. The biosphere model is of a rough and primitive character and its precision, relative to the real biosphere in the surroundings of Aespoe is envisaged to be several orders of magnitude

  12. Sensitivity properties of a biosphere model based on BATS and a statistical-dynamical climate model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhang, T. (Yale Univ., New Haven, CT (United States))

    1994-06-01

    A biosphere model based on the Biosphere-Atmosphere Transfer Scheme (BATS) and the Saltzman-Vernekar (SV) statistical-dynamical climate model is developed. Some equations of BATS are adopted either intact or with modifications, some are conceptually modified, and still others are replaced with equations of the SV model. The model is designed so that it can be run independently as long as the parameters related to the physiology and physiognomy of the vegetation, the atmospheric conditions, solar radiation, and soil conditions are given. With this stand-alone biosphere model, a series of sensitivity investigations, particularly the model sensitivity to fractional area of vegetation cover, soil surface water availability, and solar radiation for different types of vegetation, were conducted as a first step. These numerical experiments indicate that the presence of a vegetation cover greatly enhances the exchanges of momentum, water vapor, and energy between the atmosphere and the surface of the earth. An interesting result is that a dense and thick vegetation cover tends to serve as an environment conditioner or, more specifically, a thermostat and a humidistat, since the soil surface temperature, foliage temperature, and temperature and vapor pressure of air within the foliage are practically insensitive to variation of soil surface water availability and even solar radiation within a wide range. An attempt is also made to simulate the gradual deterioration of environment accompanying gradual degradation of a tropical forest to grasslands. Comparison with field data shows that this model can realistically simulate the land surface processes involving biospheric variations. 46 refs., 10 figs., 6 tabs.

  13. Review of Project SAFE: Comments on biosphere conceptual model description and risk assessment methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Klos, Richard; Wilmot, Roger [Galson Sciences Ltd (United Kingdom)

    2002-09-01

    The Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company's (SKB's) most recent assessment of the safety of the Forsmark repository for low-level and intermediate-level waste (Project SAFE) is currently undergoing review by the Swedish regulators. As part of its review, the Swedish Radiation Protection Institute (SSI) identified that two components of SAFE require more detailed review: (i) the conceptual model description of the biosphere system, and (ii) SKB's risk assessment methodology. We have reviewed the biosphere system interaction matrix and how this has been used in the identification, justification and description of biosphere models for radiological assessment purposes. The risk assessment methodology has been reviewed considering in particular issues associated with scenario selection, assessment timescale, and the probability and risk associated with the well scenario. There is an extensive range of supporting information on which biosphere modelling in Project SAFE is based. However, the link between this material and the biosphere models themselves is not clearly set out. This leads to some contradictions and mis-matches between description and implementation. One example concerns the representation of the geosphere-biosphere interface. The supporting description of lakes indicates that interaction between groundwaters entering the biosphere through lake bed sediments could lead to accumulations of radionuclides in sediments. These sediments may become agricultural areas at some time in the future. In the numerical modelling of the biosphere carried out in Project SAFE, the direct accumulation of contaminants in bed sediments is not represented. Application of a more rigorous procedure to ensure numerical models are fit for purpose is recommended, paying more attention to issues associated with the geosphere-biosphere interface. A more structured approach to risk assessment would be beneficial, with a better explanation of the difference

  14. Review of Project SAFE: Comments on biosphere conceptual model description and risk assessment methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Klos, Richard; Wilmot, Roger

    2002-09-01

    The Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company's (SKB's) most recent assessment of the safety of the Forsmark repository for low-level and intermediate-level waste (Project SAFE) is currently undergoing review by the Swedish regulators. As part of its review, the Swedish Radiation Protection Institute (SSI) identified that two components of SAFE require more detailed review: (i) the conceptual model description of the biosphere system, and (ii) SKB's risk assessment methodology. We have reviewed the biosphere system interaction matrix and how this has been used in the identification, justification and description of biosphere models for radiological assessment purposes. The risk assessment methodology has been reviewed considering in particular issues associated with scenario selection, assessment timescale, and the probability and risk associated with the well scenario. There is an extensive range of supporting information on which biosphere modelling in Project SAFE is based. However, the link between this material and the biosphere models themselves is not clearly set out. This leads to some contradictions and mis-matches between description and implementation. One example concerns the representation of the geosphere-biosphere interface. The supporting description of lakes indicates that interaction between groundwaters entering the biosphere through lake bed sediments could lead to accumulations of radionuclides in sediments. These sediments may become agricultural areas at some time in the future. In the numerical modelling of the biosphere carried out in Project SAFE, the direct accumulation of contaminants in bed sediments is not represented. Application of a more rigorous procedure to ensure numerical models are fit for purpose is recommended, paying more attention to issues associated with the geosphere-biosphere interface. A more structured approach to risk assessment would be beneficial, with a better explanation of the difference between

  15. Integration of Local Hydrology into Regional Hydrologic Simulation Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Zee, R. J.; Lal, W. A.

    2002-05-01

    South Florida hydrology is dominated by the Central and South Florida (C&SF) Project that is managed to provide flood protection, water supply and environmental protection. A complex network of levees canals and structures provide these services to the individual drainage basins. The landscape varies widely across the C&SF system, with corresponding differences in the way water is managed within each basin. Agricultural areas are managed for optimal crop production. Urban areas maximize flood protection while maintaining minimum water levels to protect adjacent wetlands and local water supplies. "Natural" areas flood and dry out in response to the temporal distribution of rainfall. The evaluation of planning, regulation and operational issues require access to a simulation model that captures the effects of both regional and local hydrology. The Regional Simulation Model (RSM) uses a "pseudo-cell" approach to integrate local hydrology within the context of a regional hydrologic system. A 2-dimensional triangulated mesh is used to represent the regional surface and ground water systems and a 1-dimensional canal network is superimposed onto this mesh. The movement of water is simulated using a finite volume formulation with a diffusive wave approximation. Each cell in the triangulated mesh has a "pseudo-cell" counterpart, which represents the same area as the cell, but it is conceptualized such that it simulates the localized hydrologic conditions Protocols have been established to provide an interface between a cell and its pseudo-cell counterpart. . A number of pseudo-cell types have already been developed and tested in the simulation of Water Conservation Area 1 and several have been proposed to deal with specific local issues in the Southwest Florida Feasibility Study. This presentation will provide an overview of the overall RSM design, describe the relationship between cells and pseudo-cells, and illustrate how pseudo-cells are be used to simulate agriculture

  16. The PSACOIN level 1B exercise: A probabilistic code intercomparison involving a four compartment biosphere model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Klos, R.A.; Sinclair, J.E.; Torres, C.; Mobbs, S.F.; Galson, D.A.

    1991-01-01

    The probabilistic Systems Assessment Code (PSAC) User Group of the OECD Nuclear Energy Agency has organised a series of code intercomparison studies of relevance to the performance assessment of underground repositories for radioactive wastes - known collectively by the name PSACOIN. The latest of these to be undertaken is designated PSACOIN Level 1b, and the case specification provides a complete assessment model of the behaviour of radionuclides following release into the biosphere. PSACOIN Level 1b differs from other biosphere oriented intercomparison exercises in that individual dose is the end point of the calculations as opposed to any other intermediate quantity. The PSACOIN Level 1b case specification describes a simple source term which is used to simulate the release of activity to the biosphere from certain types of near surface waste repository, the transport of radionuclides through the biosphere and their eventual uptake by humankind. The biosphere sub model comprises 4 compartments representing top and deep soil layers, river water and river sediment. The transport of radionuclides between the physical compartments is described by ten transfer coefficients and doses to humankind arise from the simultaneous consumption of water, fish, meat, milk, and grain as well as from dust inhalation and external γ-irradiation. The parameters of the exposure pathway sub model are chosen to be representative of an individual living in a small agrarian community. (13 refs., 3 figs., 2 tabs.)

  17. Using remote-sensing and the Simple Biosphere model (SiB4) to analyze the seasonality and productivity of the terrestrial biosphere.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheeseman, M.; Denning, S.; Baker, I. T.

    2017-12-01

    Understanding the variability and seasonality of carbon fluxes from the terrestrial biosphere is integral to understanding the mechanisms and drivers of the global carbon cycle. However, there are many regions across the globe where in situ observations are sparse, such as the Amazon rainforest and the African Sahel. The latest version of the Simple-Biosphere model (SiB4) predicts a suite of biophysical variables such as terrestrial carbon flux (GPP), solar induced fluorescence (SIF), fraction of photosynthetically active radiation (FPAR), and leaf area index (LAI). By comparing modeled values to a suite of satellite and in situ observations we produce a robust analysis of the seasonality and productivity of the terrestrial biosphere in a variety of biome types across the globe.

  18. Use of midlatitude soil moisture and meteorological observations to validate soil moisture simulations with biosphere and bucket models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robock, Alan; Vinnikov, Konstantin YA.; Schlosser, C. Adam; Speranskaya, Nina A.; Xue, Yongkang

    1995-01-01

    Soil moisture observations in sites with natural vegetation were made for several decades in the former Soviet Union at hundreds of stations. In this paper, the authors use data from six of these stations from different climatic regimes, along with ancillary meteorological and actinometric data, to demonstrate a method to validate soil moisture simulations with biosphere and bucket models. Some early and current general circulation models (GCMs) use bucket models for soil hydrology calculations. More recently, the Simple Biosphere Model (SiB) was developed to incorporate the effects of vegetation on fluxes of moisture, momentum, and energy at the earth's surface into soil hydrology models. Until now, the bucket and SiB have been verified by comparison with actual soil moisture data only on a limited basis. In this study, a Simplified SiB (SSiB) soil hydrology model and a 15-cm bucket model are forced by observed meteorological and actinometric data every 3 h for 6-yr simulations at the six stations. The model calculations of soil moisture are compared to observations of soil moisture, literally 'ground truth,' snow cover, surface albedo, and net radiation, and with each other. For three of the stations, the SSiB and 15-cm bucket models produce good simulations of seasonal cycles and interannual variations of soil moisture. For the other three stations, there are large errors in the simulations by both models. Inconsistencies in specification of field capacity may be partly responsible. There is no evidence that the SSiB simulations are superior in simulating soil moisture variations. In fact, the models are quite similar since SSiB implicitly has a bucket embedded in it. One of the main differences between the models is in the treatment of runoff due to melting snow in the spring -- SSiB incorrectly puts all the snowmelt into runoff. While producing similar soil moisture simulations, the models produce very different surface latent and sensible heat fluxes, which

  19. Assessing the Importance of Prior Biospheric Fluxes on Inverse Model Estimates of CO2

    Science.gov (United States)

    Philip, S.; Johnson, M. S.; Potter, C. S.; Genovese, V. B.

    2017-12-01

    Atmospheric mixing ratios of carbon dioxide (CO2) are largely controlled by anthropogenic emissions and biospheric sources/sinks. The processes controlling terrestrial biosphere-atmosphere carbon exchange are currently not fully understood, resulting in models having significant differences in the quantification of biospheric CO2 fluxes. Currently, atmospheric chemical transport models (CTM) and global climate models (GCM) use multiple different biospheric CO2 flux models resulting in large differences in simulating the global carbon cycle. The Orbiting Carbon Observatory 2 (OCO-2) satellite mission was designed to allow for the improved understanding of the processes involved in the exchange of carbon between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere, and therefore allowing for more accurate assessment of the seasonal/inter-annual variability of CO2. OCO-2 provides much-needed CO2 observations in data-limited regions allowing for the evaluation of model simulations of greenhouse gases (GHG) and facilitating global/regional estimates of "top-down" CO2 fluxes. We conduct a 4-D Variation (4D-Var) data assimilation with the GEOS-Chem (Goddard Earth Observation System-Chemistry) CTM using 1) OCO-2 land nadir and land glint retrievals and 2) global in situ surface flask observations to constrain biospheric CO2 fluxes. We apply different state-of-the-science year-specific CO2 flux models (e.g., NASA-CASA (NASA-Carnegie Ames Stanford Approach), CASA-GFED (Global Fire Emissions Database), Simple Biosphere Model version 4 (SiB-4), and LPJ (Lund-Postdam-Jena)) to assess the impact of "a priori" flux predictions to "a posteriori" estimates. We will present the "top-down" CO2 flux estimates for the year 2015 using OCO-2 and in situ observations, and a complete indirect evaluation of the a priori and a posteriori flux estimates using independent in situ observations. We will also present our assessment of the variability of "top-down" CO2 flux estimates when using different

  20. The Impact of Prior Biosphere Models in the Inversion of Global Terrestrial CO2 Fluxes by Assimilating OCO-2 Retrievals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Philip, Sajeev; Johnson, Matthew S.

    2018-01-01

    Atmospheric mixing ratios of carbon dioxide (CO2) are largely controlled by anthropogenic emissions and biospheric fluxes. The processes controlling terrestrial biosphere-atmosphere carbon exchange are currently not fully understood, resulting in terrestrial biospheric models having significant differences in the quantification of biospheric CO2 fluxes. Atmospheric transport models assimilating measured (in situ or space-borne) CO2 concentrations to estimate "top-down" fluxes, generally use these biospheric CO2 fluxes as a priori information. Most of the flux inversion estimates result in substantially different spatio-temporal posteriori estimates of regional and global biospheric CO2 fluxes. The Orbiting Carbon Observatory 2 (OCO-2) satellite mission dedicated to accurately measure column CO2 (XCO2) allows for an improved understanding of global biospheric CO2 fluxes. OCO-2 provides much-needed CO2 observations in data-limited regions facilitating better global and regional estimates of "top-down" CO2 fluxes through inversion model simulations. The specific objectives of our research are to: 1) conduct GEOS-Chem 4D-Var assimilation of OCO-2 observations, using several state-of-the-science biospheric CO2 flux models as a priori information, to better constrain terrestrial CO2 fluxes, and 2) quantify the impact of different biospheric model prior fluxes on OCO-2-assimilated a posteriori CO2 flux estimates. Here we present our assessment of the importance of these a priori fluxes by conducting Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSE) using simulated OCO-2 observations with known "true" fluxes.

  1. Subdivision of Texas watersheds for hydrologic modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-06-01

    The purpose of this report is to present a set of findings and examples for subdivision of watersheds for hydrologic modeling. Three approaches were used to examine the impact of watershed subdivision on modeled hydrologic response: (1) An equal-area...

  2. Model complexity control for hydrologic prediction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schoups, G.; Van de Giesen, N.C.; Savenije, H.H.G.

    2008-01-01

    A common concern in hydrologic modeling is overparameterization of complex models given limited and noisy data. This leads to problems of parameter nonuniqueness and equifinality, which may negatively affect prediction uncertainties. A systematic way of controlling model complexity is therefore

  3. A Community Data Model for Hydrologic Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tarboton, D. G.; Horsburgh, J. S.; Zaslavsky, I.; Maidment, D. R.; Valentine, D.; Jennings, B.

    2006-12-01

    The CUAHSI Hydrologic Information System project is developing information technology infrastructure to support hydrologic science. Hydrologic information science involves the description of hydrologic environments in a consistent way, using data models for information integration. This includes a hydrologic observations data model for the storage and retrieval of hydrologic observations in a relational database designed to facilitate data retrieval for integrated analysis of information collected by multiple investigators. It is intended to provide a standard format to facilitate the effective sharing of information between investigators and to facilitate analysis of information within a single study area or hydrologic observatory, or across hydrologic observatories and regions. The observations data model is designed to store hydrologic observations and sufficient ancillary information (metadata) about the observations to allow them to be unambiguously interpreted and used and provide traceable heritage from raw measurements to usable information. The design is based on the premise that a relational database at the single observation level is most effective for providing querying capability and cross dimension data retrieval and analysis. This premise is being tested through the implementation of a prototype hydrologic observations database, and the development of web services for the retrieval of data from and ingestion of data into the database. These web services hosted by the San Diego Supercomputer center make data in the database accessible both through a Hydrologic Data Access System portal and directly from applications software such as Excel, Matlab and ArcGIS that have Standard Object Access Protocol (SOAP) capability. This paper will (1) describe the data model; (2) demonstrate the capability for representing diverse data in the same database; (3) demonstrate the use of the database from applications software for the performance of hydrologic analysis

  4. Biosphere modelling for safety assessment of geological disposal taking account of denudation of contaminated soils. Research document

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kato, Tomoko

    2003-03-01

    Biosphere models for safety assessment of geological disposal have been developed on the assumption that the repository-derived radionuclides reach surface environment by groundwater. In the modelling, river, deep well and marine have been considered as geosphere-biosphere (GBIs) and some Japanese-specific ''reference biospheres'' have been developed using an approach consistent with the BIOMOVS II/BIOMASS Reference Biosphere Methodology. In this study, it is assumed that the repository-derived radionuclide would reach surface environment in the form of solid phase by uplift and erosion of contaminated soil and sediment. The radionuclides entered into the surface environment by these processes could be distributed between solid and liquid phases and could spread within the biosphere via solid phase and also liquid phase. Based on these concepts, biosphere model that considers variably saturated zone under surface soil (VSZ) as a GBI was developed for calculating the flux-to-dose conversion factors of three exposure groups (farming, freshwater fishing, marine fishing) based on the Reference Biosphere Methodology. The flux-to-dose conversion factors for faming exposure group were the highest, and ''inhalation of dust'', external irradiation from soil'' and ''ingestion of soil'' were the dominant exposure pathways for most of radionuclides considered in this model. It is impossible to compare the flux-to-dose conversion factors calculated by the biosphere model in this study with those calculated by the biosphere models developed in the previous studies because the migration processes considered when the radionuclides entered the surface environment through the aquifer are different among the models; i.e. it has been assumed that the repository-derived radionuclides entered the GBIs such as river, deep well and marine via groundwater without dilution and retardation at the aquifer in the previous biosphere models. Consequently, it must be modelled the migration of

  5. Exploring global carbon turnover and radiocarbon cycling in terrestrial biosphere models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graven, H. D.; Warren, H.

    2017-12-01

    The uptake of carbon into terrestrial ecosystems through net primary productivity (NPP) and the turnover of that carbon through various pathways are the fundamental drivers of changing carbon stocks on land, in addition to human-induced and natural disturbances. Terrestrial biosphere models use different formulations for carbon uptake and release, resulting in a range of values in NPP of 40-70 PgC/yr and biomass turnover times of about 25-40 years for the preindustrial period in current-generation models from CMIP5. Biases in carbon uptake and turnover impact simulated carbon uptake and storage in the historical period and later in the century under changing climate and CO2 concentration, however evaluating global-scale NPP and carbon turnover is challenging. Scaling up of plot-scale measurements involves uncertainty due to the large heterogeneity across ecosystems and biomass types, some of which are not well-observed. We are developing the modelling of radiocarbon in terrestrial biosphere models, with a particular focus on decadal 14C dynamics after the nuclear weapons testing in the 1950s-60s, including the impact of carbon flux trends and variability on 14C cycling. We use an estimate of the total inventory of excess 14C in the biosphere constructed by Naegler and Levin (2009) using a 14C budget approach incorporating estimates of total 14C produced by the weapons tests and atmospheric and oceanic 14C observations. By simulating radiocarbon in simple biosphere box models using carbon fluxes from the CMIP5 models, we find that carbon turnover is too rapid in many of the simple models - the models appear to take up too much 14C and release it too quickly. Therefore many CMIP5 models may also simulate carbon turnover that is too rapid. A caveat is that the simple box models we use may not adequately represent carbon dynamics in the full-scale models. Explicit simulation of radiocarbon in terrestrial biosphere models would allow more robust evaluation of biosphere

  6. Modelling of the interface between the geosphere and the biosphere: discharge through a soil layer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Elert, M.; Argaerde, A.C.; Ericsson, A.M.

    1988-12-01

    Radionuclides released from an underground repository can be transported by deep groundwater to the biosphere. The deep groundwater can be discharged to an agricultural area or a bog. In this report an evaluation is made of the resulting distribution of radionuclides in the upper soil and the release of radionuclides to a creek. From these environments, radionuclides can follow different exposure pathways to man. In order to evaluate the radionuclide movement to and retention in the soil surface, the hydrology in the superficial layers has been studied with the help of computer models. The chemical environment in soil was studied with special emphasis on radionuclide mobility. Examples of parameters which affect this mobility and which were studied are mineral composition, content of organic material, pH and redox potential. The chemical behaviour of the radionuclides iodine, cesium, radium, uranium, neptunium and americium was the topic of a literature survey. For the work in this report, radionuclide mobility in soils is represented by the equilibrium distribution coefficient, K d . The radionuclide transport calculations showed that only those radionuclides which are sorbed strongly in the soil (i.e. radium, cesium and americium) have retention times longer than the expected lifetime of the soil layer itself. This would also be the case for neptunium and uranium if reducing conditions are found at the base of the soil column. For only slightly sorbing nuclides no important retention was found. The retarding effects of the soil layer is less than that of a sediment layer in a lake (the subject of a previous study). because of the greater water turnover in the soil. Several limitations to current knowledge and modelling techniques have been identified, and suggestion for possible improvement have been made. (85 refs.) (au)

  7. A qualitative reasoning model of algal bloom in the Danube Delta Biosphere Reserve (DDBR)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cioaca, E.; Linnebank, F.E.; Bredeweg, B.; Salles, P.

    2009-01-01

    This paper presents a Qualitative Reasoning model of the algal bloom phenomenon and its effects in the Danube Delta Biosphere Reserve (DDBR) in Romania. Qualitative Reasoning models represent processes and their cause-effect relationships in a flexible and conceptually rich manner and as such can be

  8. Overview of the development of a biosphere modelling capability for UK DoE (HMIP)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nancarrow, D.J.; Ashton, J.; Little, R.H.

    1990-01-01

    A programme of research has been funded, since 1982, by the United Kingdom Department of the Environment (Her Majesty's Inspectorate of Pollution, HMIP), to develop a procedure for post-closure radiological assessment of underground disposal facilities for low and intermediate level radioactive wastes. It is conventional to regard the disposal system as comprising the engineered barriers of the repository, the geological setting which provides natural barriers to migration, and the surface environment or biosphere. The requirement of a biosphere submodel, therefore, is to provide estimates, for given radionuclide inputs, of the dose or probability distribution function of dose to a maximally exposed individual as a function of time. This paper describes the development of the capability for biosphere modelling for HMIP in the context of the development of other assessment procedures. 11 refs., 3 figs., 2 tabs

  9. SITE-94, Biosphere Model for SKI Project on the island of Aspro

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barrdahl, Runo Alfons Gunnar

    2003-01-01

    1 - Description of program or function: A simple biosphere model has been designed for use in the SKI project related to a hypothetical repository for spent nuclear fuel on the island of Aspro near Oskarshamn in Southern Sweden. Project SITE-94 studies the safety aspects of this hypothetical repository. Any weakness in repository performance will reveal itself as a leakage of radionuclides out of the repository, and finally into the biosphere where man and nature are at risk of being exposed. Thus, as the final link in estimating such leakage, a biosphere model will provide an estimate of resulting radiation impact on man and nature. 2 - Methods: The present biosphere model involves a stationary scenario (Reference Scenario) and a climate evolution and geological scenario (Central Scenario). The stationary and time evolution scenarios contain as primary recipients a well and the bay of Borholm, i.e., the waters surrounding the island of Aspo. The time evolution scenario additionally incorporates as primary recipients a waste sample from intrusion and, in a remote future time, the Baltic Sea. Transport of radionuclides within the model system is assumed to be essentially immediate, except for in sediment subject to land rise. Except for this pathway, radioactive decay is therefore not included at all in the model. Land rise sediment is modeled to be subject to radioactive decay from the time the sediment no longer constitutes sea bottom until the desired time point of the model. Correction for radioactive decay is thus generally supposed to be made outside the biosphere model. Unless otherwise indicated, yearly individual and population committed (50 years) radiation doses to man are considered, and all scenarios involve a constant flux of 1 Bq/y of each radionuclide considered into the respective primary recipient. Nominal values of radionuclide flux will finally be multiplied with the radiation dose per one Bq per year resulting from the model in order to obtain

  10. A GoldSim Based Biosphere Assessment Model for a HLW Repository

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Youn-Myoung; Hwang, Yong-Soo; Kang, Chul-Hyung

    2007-01-01

    To demonstrate the performance of a repository, the dose exposure to a human being due to nuclide releases from a repository should be evaluated and the results compared to the dose limit presented by the regulatory bodies. To evaluate a dose rate to an individual due to a long-term release of nuclides from a HLW repository, biosphere assessment models and their implemented codes such as ACBIO1 and ACBIO2 have been developed with the aid of AMBER during the last few years. BIOMASS methodology has been adopted for a HLW repository currently being considered in Korea, which has a similar concept to the Swedish KBS-3 HLW repository. Recently, not just only for verifying the purpose for biosphere assessment models but also for varying the possible alternatives to assess the consequences in a biosphere due to a HLW repository, another version of the assessment modesl has been newly developed in the frame of development programs for a total system performance assessment modeling tool by utilizing GoldSim. Through a current study, GoldSim approach for a biosphere modeling is introduced. Unlike AMBER by which a compartment scheme can be rather simply constructed with an appropriate transition rate between compartments, GoldSim was designed to facilitate the object-oriented modules by which specific models can be addressed in an additional manner, like solving jig saw puzzles

  11. Evaluation of Features, Events, and Processes (FEP) for the Biosphere Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    M. A. Wasiolek

    2003-10-09

    The purpose of this report is to document the evaluation of biosphere features, events, and processes (FEPs) that relate to the license application (LA) process as required by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) regulations at 10 CFR 63.114 (d, e, and f) [DIRS 156605]. The evaluation determines whether specific biosphere-related FEPs should be included or excluded from consideration in the Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA). This analysis documents the technical basis for screening decisions as required at 10 CFR 63.114 (d, e, and f) [DIRS 156605]. For FEPs that are included in the TSPA, this analysis provides a TSPA disposition, which summarizes how the FEP has been included and addressed in the TSPA model, and cites the analysis reports and model reports that provide the technical basis and description of its disposition. For FEPs that are excluded from the TSPA, this analysis report provides a screening argument, which identifies the basis for the screening decision (i.e., low probability, low consequence, or by regulation) and discusses the technical basis that supports that decision. In cases, where a FEP covers multiple technical areas and is shared with other FEP analysis reports, this analysis may provide only a partial technical basis for the screening of the FEP. The full technical basis for these shared FEPs is addressed collectively by all FEP analysis reports that cover technical disciplines sharing a FEP. FEPs must be included in the TSPA unless they can be excluded by low probability, low consequence, or regulation. A FEP can be excluded from the TSPA by low probability per 10 CFR 63.114(d) [DIRS 156605], by showing that it has less than one chance in 10,000 of occurring over 10,000 years (or an approximately equivalent annualized probability of 10{sup -8}). A FEP can be excluded from the TSPA by low consequence per 10 CFR 63.114 (e or f) [DIRS 156605], by showing that omitting the FEP would not significantly change the magnitude and

  12. Evaluation of Features, Events, and Processes (FEP) for the Biosphere Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wasiolek, M. A.

    2003-01-01

    The purpose of this report is to document the evaluation of biosphere features, events, and processes (FEPs) that relate to the license application (LA) process as required by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) regulations at 10 CFR 63.114 (d, e, and f) [DIRS 156605]. The evaluation determines whether specific biosphere-related FEPs should be included or excluded from consideration in the Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA). This analysis documents the technical basis for screening decisions as required at 10 CFR 63.114 (d, e, and f) [DIRS 156605]. For FEPs that are included in the TSPA, this analysis provides a TSPA disposition, which summarizes how the FEP has been included and addressed in the TSPA model, and cites the analysis reports and model reports that provide the technical basis and description of its disposition. For FEPs that are excluded from the TSPA, this analysis report provides a screening argument, which identifies the basis for the screening decision (i.e., low probability, low consequence, or by regulation) and discusses the technical basis that supports that decision. In cases, where a FEP covers multiple technical areas and is shared with other FEP analysis reports, this analysis may provide only a partial technical basis for the screening of the FEP. The full technical basis for these shared FEPs is addressed collectively by all FEP analysis reports that cover technical disciplines sharing a FEP. FEPs must be included in the TSPA unless they can be excluded by low probability, low consequence, or regulation. A FEP can be excluded from the TSPA by low probability per 10 CFR 63.114(d) [DIRS 156605], by showing that it has less than one chance in 10,000 of occurring over 10,000 years (or an approximately equivalent annualized probability of 10 -8 ). A FEP can be excluded from the TSPA by low consequence per 10 CFR 63.114 (e or f) [DIRS 156605], by showing that omitting the FEP would not significantly change the magnitude and

  13. Modeling the global society-biosphere-climate system : Part 2: Computed scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Alcamo, J.; Van Den Born, G.J.; Bouwman, A.F.; De Haan, B.J.; Klein Goldewijk, K.; Klepper, O.; Krabec, J.; Leemans, R.; Olivier, J.G.J.; Toet, A.M.C.; De Vries, H.J.M.; Van Der Woerd, H.J.

    1994-01-01

    This paper presents scenarios computed with IMAGE 2.0, an integrated model of the global environment and climate change. Results are presented for selected aspects of the society-biosphere-climate system including primary energy consumption, emissions of various greenhouse gases, atmospheric

  14. Evaluation of Features, Events, and Processes (FEP) for the Biosphere Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    J. J. Tappen

    2003-01-01

    The purpose of this revision of ''Evaluation of the Applicability of Biosphere-Related Features, Events, and Processes (FEPs)'' (BSC 2001) is to document the screening analysis of biosphere-related primary FEPs, as identified in ''The Development of Information Catalogued in REV00 of the YMP FEP Database'' (Freeze et al. 2001), in accordance with the requirements of the final U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) regulations at 10 CFR Part 63. This database is referred to as the Yucca Mountain Project (YMP) FEP Database throughout this document. Those biosphere-related primary FEPs that are screened as applicable will be used to develop the conceptual model portion of the biosphere model, which will in turn be used to develop the mathematical model portion of the biosphere model. As part of this revision, any reference to the screening guidance or criteria provided either by Dyer (1999) or by the proposed NRC regulations at 64 FR 8640 has been removed. The title of this revision has been changed to more accurately reflect the purpose of the analyses. In addition, this revision will address Item Numbers 19, 20, 21, 25, and 26 from Attachment 2 of ''U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission/U.S. Department of Energy Technical Exchange and Management Meeting on Total System Performance Assessment and Integration (August 6 through 10, 2001)'' (Reamer 2001). This Scientific Analysis Report (SAR) does not support the current revision to the YMP FEP Database (Freeze et al. 2001). Subsequent to the release of the YMP FEP Database (Freeze et al. 2001), a series of reviews was conducted on both the FEP processes used to support Total System Performance Assessment for Site Recommendation and to develop the YMP FEP Database. In response to observations and comments from these reviews, particularly the NRC/DOE TSPA Technical Exchange in August 2001 (Reamer 2001), several Key Technical Issue (KTI) Agreements were developed. ''The Enhanced Plan for Features, Events and Processes

  15. Evaluation of Features, Events, and Processes (FEP) for the Biosphere Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    J. J. Tappen

    2003-02-16

    The purpose of this revision of ''Evaluation of the Applicability of Biosphere-Related Features, Events, and Processes (FEPs)'' (BSC 2001) is to document the screening analysis of biosphere-related primary FEPs, as identified in ''The Development of Information Catalogued in REV00 of the YMP FEP Database'' (Freeze et al. 2001), in accordance with the requirements of the final U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) regulations at 10 CFR Part 63. This database is referred to as the Yucca Mountain Project (YMP) FEP Database throughout this document. Those biosphere-related primary FEPs that are screened as applicable will be used to develop the conceptual model portion of the biosphere model, which will in turn be used to develop the mathematical model portion of the biosphere model. As part of this revision, any reference to the screening guidance or criteria provided either by Dyer (1999) or by the proposed NRC regulations at 64 FR 8640 has been removed. The title of this revision has been changed to more accurately reflect the purpose of the analyses. In addition, this revision will address Item Numbers 19, 20, 21, 25, and 26 from Attachment 2 of ''U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission/U.S. Department of Energy Technical Exchange and Management Meeting on Total System Performance Assessment and Integration (August 6 through 10, 2001)'' (Reamer 2001). This Scientific Analysis Report (SAR) does not support the current revision to the YMP FEP Database (Freeze et al. 2001). Subsequent to the release of the YMP FEP Database (Freeze et al. 2001), a series of reviews was conducted on both the FEP processes used to support Total System Performance Assessment for Site Recommendation and to develop the YMP FEP Database. In response to observations and comments from these reviews, particularly the NRC/DOE TSPA Technical Exchange in August 2001 (Reamer 2001), several Key Technical Issue (KTI) Agreements were developed

  16. Gaian bottlenecks and planetary habitability maintained by evolving model biospheres: the ExoGaia model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicholson, Arwen E.; Wilkinson, David M.; Williams, Hywel T. P.; Lenton, Timothy M.

    2018-06-01

    The search for habitable exoplanets inspires the question - how do habitable planets form? Planet habitability models traditionally focus on abiotic processes and neglect a biotic response to changing conditions on an inhabited planet. The Gaia hypothesis postulates that life influences the Earth's feedback mechanisms to form a self-regulating system, and hence that life can maintain habitable conditions on its host planet. If life has a strong influence, it will have a role in determining a planet's habitability over time. We present the ExoGaia model - a model of simple `planets' host to evolving microbial biospheres. Microbes interact with their host planet via consumption and excretion of atmospheric chemicals. Model planets orbit a `star' that provides incoming radiation, and atmospheric chemicals have either an albedo or a heat-trapping property. Planetary temperatures can therefore be altered by microbes via their metabolisms. We seed multiple model planets with life while their atmospheres are still forming and find that the microbial biospheres are, under suitable conditions, generally able to prevent the host planets from reaching inhospitable temperatures, as would happen on a lifeless planet. We find that the underlying geochemistry plays a strong role in determining long-term habitability prospects of a planet. We find five distinct classes of model planets, including clear examples of `Gaian bottlenecks' - a phenomenon whereby life either rapidly goes extinct leaving an inhospitable planet or survives indefinitely maintaining planetary habitability. These results suggest that life might play a crucial role in determining the long-term habitability of planets.

  17. Genetic Programming for Automatic Hydrological Modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chadalawada, Jayashree; Babovic, Vladan

    2017-04-01

    One of the recent challenges for the hydrologic research community is the need for the development of coupled systems that involves the integration of hydrologic, atmospheric and socio-economic relationships. This poses a requirement for novel modelling frameworks that can accurately represent complex systems, given, the limited understanding of underlying processes, increasing volume of data and high levels of uncertainity. Each of the existing hydrological models vary in terms of conceptualization and process representation and is the best suited to capture the environmental dynamics of a particular hydrological system. Data driven approaches can be used in the integration of alternative process hypotheses in order to achieve a unified theory at catchment scale. The key steps in the implementation of integrated modelling framework that is influenced by prior understanding and data, include, choice of the technique for the induction of knowledge from data, identification of alternative structural hypotheses, definition of rules, constraints for meaningful, intelligent combination of model component hypotheses and definition of evaluation metrics. This study aims at defining a Genetic Programming based modelling framework that test different conceptual model constructs based on wide range of objective functions and evolves accurate and parsimonious models that capture dominant hydrological processes at catchment scale. In this paper, GP initializes the evolutionary process using the modelling decisions inspired from the Superflex framework [Fenicia et al., 2011] and automatically combines them into model structures that are scrutinized against observed data using statistical, hydrological and flow duration curve based performance metrics. The collaboration between data driven and physical, conceptual modelling paradigms improves the ability to model and manage hydrologic systems. Fenicia, F., D. Kavetski, and H. H. Savenije (2011), Elements of a flexible approach

  18. The landscape-scale radionuclide transport model used in Posiva biosphere assessment 2012

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Broed, R. [Facilia A (Finland); Hjerpe, T. [Facilia AB (Finland); Ikonen, A.T.K. [Environmental Research and Assessment EnviroCase, Ltd. (Finland)

    2014-07-01

    Construction of a deep geological repository for spent nuclear fuel in the Olkiluoto Island on the south-western coast of Finland is under preparation. This work presents the reference landscape-scale model for radionuclide fate and transport in the biosphere that was implemented as a part of the safety case underpinning the nuclear construction license of the repository in 2012. The model was implemented with a large number of biosphere objects, covering any radiologically significant areas of the site and downstream locations, in order to account for the uncertainty in the geosphere release location. One important factor considered is the effect of land uplift, which has the consequence that the modelled landscape evolves with time, i.e. new land areas is continuously emerging from the sea and by overgrowth of lakes, and the modelled biosphere objects can change their biotope and composition over time. For example, a biosphere object that initially represents a part of the coast, can due to the land uplift eventually represent a lake. This lake might then at a later stage have dried up and formed a wetland that eventually is turned into a cropland. This means that the ecosystem-specific model parts used in one biosphere object, the related model parameters, and the available exposure pathways vary with time. A time-period of 10,000 years is simulated, with the assumption that a single spent fuel disposal canister initially fails its containment functions. The resulting activity concentrations in the environmental media that are produced by the simulation with the landscape model are used to estimate the doses to members of the public and dose-rates to non-human biota inhabiting the modelled region. In this work the focus is on the reference case model which represents a defective canister in a deposition hole that is cautiously selected, leading to geosphere releases just north of the current northern shoreline, but also a brief overview of two alternative models

  19. Optimization of a prognostic biosphere model for terrestrial biomass and atmospheric CO2 variability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saito, M.; Ito, A.; Maksyutov, S.

    2014-01-01

    This study investigates the capacity of a prognostic biosphere model to simulate global variability in atmospheric CO 2 concentrations and vegetation carbon dynamics under current environmental conditions. Global data sets of atmospheric CO 2 concentrations, above-ground biomass (AGB), and net primary productivity (NPP) in terrestrial vegetation were assimilated into the biosphere model using an inverse modeling method combined with an atmospheric transport model. In this process, the optimal physiological parameters of the biosphere model were estimated by minimizing the misfit between observed and modeled values, and parameters were generated to characterize various biome types. Results obtained using the model with the optimized parameters correspond to the observed seasonal variations in CO 2 concentration and their annual amplitudes in both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. In simulating the mean annual AGB and NPP, the model shows improvements in estimating the mean magnitudes and probability distributions for each biome, as compared with results obtained using prior simulation parameters. However, the model is less efficient in its simulation of AGB for forest type biomes. This misfit suggests that more accurate values of input parameters, specifically, grid mean AGB values and seasonal variabilities in physiological parameters, are required to improve the performance of the simulation model. (authors)

  20. Data assimilation in integrated hydrological modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Jørn

    Integrated hydrological models are useful tools for water resource management and research, and advances in computational power and the advent of new observation types has resulted in the models generally becoming more complex and distributed. However, the models are often characterized by a high...... degree of parameterization which results in significant model uncertainty which cannot be reduced much due to observations often being scarce and often taking the form of point measurements. Data assimilation shows great promise for use in integrated hydrological models , as it allows for observations...... to be efficiently combined with models to improve model predictions, reduce uncertainty and estimate model parameters. In this thesis, a framework for assimilating multiple observation types and updating multiple components and parameters of a catchment scale integrated hydrological model is developed and tested...

  1. Safety case for the disposal of spent nuclear fuel at Olkiluoto. Terrain and ecosystems development modelling in the biosphere assessment BSA-2012

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2013-12-01

    This report is one of the four supporting reports for the three main biosphere reports in the safety case for the disposal of spent nuclear fuel at Olkiluoto, 'TURVA-2012'. The focus of this report is to detail the scenario analysis of terrain and ecosystems development at the Olkiluoto repository site within a time frame of 10 000 years, whereas the input data to this modelling is detailed in the Data Basis report. The results are used further especially in the surface and near-surface hydrological modelling and in the biosphere radionuclide transport and dose modelling, both part of the biosphere assessment 'BSA-2012' feeding into the safety case. Based on the results of the 18 cases simulated in the scenario analysis, it can be outlined that the most significant differences in respect of the dose implications of the repository arise from the inputs and settings affecting the rate of coastline retreat (i.e. land uplift and sea level) and determining whether there are croplands or not in the area. (orig.)

  2. Biosphere conceptual model development in the frame of Baita Bihor repository safety project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Paunescu, N.; Margineanu, R.; Ene, D.

    2002-01-01

    The topic of this paper is the development of the biosphere model in the frame of the preliminary performance assessment of the Romanian National L and ILW repository, Baita-Bihor. The work presents the actual understanding of the radionuclide pathways through the repository adjacent area and their conceptualization, collection of required data, implementation of model and preliminary calculation results. The model takes into consideration a leaching scenario from the near field and the transport of radionuclides by river water. The critical group is a small community of inhabitants relying on the local resources, which constitutes an agriculture community 'small farm system'. On the basis of the defined specifications (biosphere equations and data), application of model and dose rate estimates were performed by the ABRICOT code. (author)

  3. Analysis of Critical Issues in Biosphere Assessment Modelling and Site Investigation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Egan, M.J.; Thorne, M.C.; Little, R.H.; Pasco, R.F. [Quintessa Limited, Henley-on-Thames (United Kingdom)

    2003-07-01

    The aim of this document is to present a critical review of issues concerned with the treatment of the biosphere and geosphere-biosphere interface in long-term performance assessment studies for nuclear waste disposal in Sweden. The review covers three main areas of investigation: a review of SKB's plans for undertaking site investigations at candidate locations for the development of a deep geological repository for spent fuel; identification of critical uncertainties associated with SKB's treatment of the geosphere-biosphere interface in recent performance assessments; and a preliminary modelling investigation of the significance of features, events and processes in the near-surface environment in terms of their effect on the accumulation and redistribution of radionuclides at the geosphere-biosphere interface. Overall, SKB's proposals for site investigations are considered to be comprehensive and, if they can be carried out to the specification presented, will constitute a benchmark that other waste management organisations will have to work hard to emulate. The main concern is that expertise for undertaking the investigations and reporting the results could be stretched very thin. The authors have also identified weaknesses in the documentation concerning the collection of evidence for environmental change and on developing scenarios for future environmental change. A fundamental assumption adopted in the renewed assessment of the SFR 1 repository, which is not discussed or justified in any of the documentation that has been reviewed, is that radionuclides enter the water column of the coastal and lake models directly, without passing first through the bed sediments. The modelling study reported herein suggests that SKB's models are robust to range of alternative conceptual descriptions relating to the geosphere-biosphere interface. There are however situations, in which contaminated groundwater is released via sediment rather than directly

  4. Analysis of Critical Issues in Biosphere Assessment Modelling and Site Investigation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Egan, M.J.; Thorne, M.C.; Little, R.H.; Pasco, R.F.

    2003-07-01

    The aim of this document is to present a critical review of issues concerned with the treatment of the biosphere and geosphere-biosphere interface in long-term performance assessment studies for nuclear waste disposal in Sweden. The review covers three main areas of investigation: a review of SKB's plans for undertaking site investigations at candidate locations for the development of a deep geological repository for spent fuel; identification of critical uncertainties associated with SKB's treatment of the geosphere-biosphere interface in recent performance assessments; and a preliminary modelling investigation of the significance of features, events and processes in the near-surface environment in terms of their effect on the accumulation and redistribution of radionuclides at the geosphere-biosphere interface. Overall, SKB's proposals for site investigations are considered to be comprehensive and, if they can be carried out to the specification presented, will constitute a benchmark that other waste management organisations will have to work hard to emulate. The main concern is that expertise for undertaking the investigations and reporting the results could be stretched very thin. The authors have also identified weaknesses in the documentation concerning the collection of evidence for environmental change and on developing scenarios for future environmental change. A fundamental assumption adopted in the renewed assessment of the SFR 1 repository, which is not discussed or justified in any of the documentation that has been reviewed, is that radionuclides enter the water column of the coastal and lake models directly, without passing first through the bed sediments. The modelling study reported herein suggests that SKB's models are robust to range of alternative conceptual descriptions relating to the geosphere-biosphere interface. There are however situations, in which contaminated groundwater is released via sediment rather than directly to the water column

  5. An approach to measure parameter sensitivity in watershed hydrologic modeling

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — Abstract Hydrologic responses vary spatially and temporally according to watershed characteristics. In this study, the hydrologic models that we developed earlier...

  6. Sequential optimization of a terrestrial biosphere model constrained by multiple satellite based products

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ichii, K.; Kondo, M.; Wang, W.; Hashimoto, H.; Nemani, R. R.

    2012-12-01

    Various satellite-based spatial products such as evapotranspiration (ET) and gross primary productivity (GPP) are now produced by integration of ground and satellite observations. Effective use of these multiple satellite-based products in terrestrial biosphere models is an important step toward better understanding of terrestrial carbon and water cycles. However, due to the complexity of terrestrial biosphere models with large number of model parameters, the application of these spatial data sets in terrestrial biosphere models is difficult. In this study, we established an effective but simple framework to refine a terrestrial biosphere model, Biome-BGC, using multiple satellite-based products as constraints. We tested the framework in the monsoon Asia region covered by AsiaFlux observations. The framework is based on the hierarchical analysis (Wang et al. 2009) with model parameter optimization constrained by satellite-based spatial data. The Biome-BGC model is separated into several tiers to minimize the freedom of model parameter selections and maximize the independency from the whole model. For example, the snow sub-model is first optimized using MODIS snow cover product, followed by soil water sub-model optimized by satellite-based ET (estimated by an empirical upscaling method; Support Vector Regression (SVR) method; Yang et al. 2007), photosynthesis model optimized by satellite-based GPP (based on SVR method), and respiration and residual carbon cycle models optimized by biomass data. As a result of initial assessment, we found that most of default sub-models (e.g. snow, water cycle and carbon cycle) showed large deviations from remote sensing observations. However, these biases were removed by applying the proposed framework. For example, gross primary productivities were initially underestimated in boreal and temperate forest and overestimated in tropical forests. However, the parameter optimization scheme successfully reduced these biases. Our analysis

  7. Exchange Processes at Geosphere-Biosphere Interface

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Worman, A.; Sjogren, B.; Dverstorp, B.; Xu, S.

    2004-01-01

    The radioecological models included in performance assessments to date by the Swedish nuclear industry for existing and planned nuclear waste repositories do not explicitly represent the transport of radionuclides from bedrock into the near-surface geological environment. It has been argued that bypassing the transition zone from the bedrock to the quarternary deposits and the biosphere (the geosphere-biosphere interface, GBI) leads to conservative estimates of estimated doses and risk. This study demonstrates that this may not always be true. The study is based on an integrated model representation of a release of radionuclides from a hypothetical repository, transport through the crystalline bedrock and the near-surface deposits to the biosphere. A three-dimensional flow model is developed, which has a fairly accurate description of both surface and groundwater hydrology and is coupled to radioecological models. The development has great significance for estimation of flow field at the repository level as well as for estimation of transport pathways and residence time distributions for radionuclides. The modelling approach is based on the characterisation of radionuclide residence times in the bedrock and the quaternary deposits, as well as the distribution of radionuclides in ecosystems. Simulation examples are presented to illustrate the relative importance of transport processes in the quaternary sediments and the hydraulic interaction between the bedrock, quaternary deposits and various ecosystems. The modelling results show that, in many cases, taking into account the biosphere-geosphere interface leads to a delay of radionuclide arrival to the biosphere. For other conditions, the more precise prediction of radionuclide ex-filtration locations in the biosphere can result in higher environmental concentrations compared with estimates based on diluting radionuclide in a large area. An improved representation of these processes will enhance our understanding of

  8. Developpement of a GoldSim Biosphere Model, Evaluation, and Its Verification

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Youn Myoung; Hwang, Yong Soo

    2009-12-01

    For the purpose of evaluating dose rate to individual due to long-term release of nuclides from the repository for an HLW or a pyroprocessing repository, a biosphere assessment model and the implemented program based on BIOMASS methodology have been developed by utilizing GoldSim, a general model developing tool. To show its practicability and usability as well as to see the sensitivity of parametric and scenario variations to the annual exposure, some probabilistic calculations are made and investigated. For the cases when changing the exposure groups and associated GBIs as well as varying selected input values, all of which seem important for the biosphere evaluation, dose rate per nuclide release rate is probabilistically calculated and analyzed. A series of comparison studies with JAEA, Japan have been also carried out to verify the model

  9. Models of radionuclide distribution in the biosphere for radioactive waste storage safety assessment, collection of data and calculation of the biosphere dose conversion factors. Research report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Landa, Jiri

    2008-12-01

    The core of the report is structured as follows: The biosphere dose conversion factor (BDCF); Foreign approaches (Sweden - SKB, USA - YMP, BIOPROTA); Definition and conversion factors for activity; Effective dose rate calculation (ingestion, inhalation, external irradiation); Analysis of the activity of the surface compartment, i.e. soil; Basic conceptual models of ecosystems; BDCF calculation/determination; and Systemization of the literature. (P.A.)

  10. Putting hydrological modelling practice to the test

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Melsen, Lieke Anna

    2017-01-01

    Six steps can be distinguished in the process of hydrological modelling: the perceptual model (deciding on the processes), the conceptual model (deciding on the equations), the procedural model (get the code to run on a computer), calibration (identify the parameters), evaluation (confronting

  11. Hydrologic modeling of the Columbia Plateau basalts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dove, F.H.; Cole, C.R.; Bond, F.W.; Zimmerman, D.A.

    1982-09-01

    The Office of Nuclear Waste Isolation (ONWI) directed the Assessment of Effectiveness of Geologic Isolation Systems (AEGIS) Program to conduct a technology demonstration of current performance assessment techniques for the Department of Energy (DOE) as applied to a nuclear waste repository in the Columbia Plateau Basalts. Hypothetical repository coordinates were selected for an actual geographical setting on the Hanford Reservation in the state of Washington. Published hydrologic and geologic data used in the analyses were gathered in 1979 or earlier. The hydrologic simulation was divided into three major parts: (1) aquifer recharge calculations, (2) a regional hydrologic model, and (3) a local hydrologic model of the Pasco Basin. The presentation discusses the regional model. An estimate of the amount of water transmitted through the groundwater system was required to bound the transmissivity values and to estimate the transmissivity distributions for the deeper basalts. The multiple layer two-dimensional Variable Thickness Transient (VTT) code was selected as appropriate for the amount of data available and for the conditions existing in the regional systems. This model uses a finite difference formulation to represent the partial differential flow equation. The regional study area as defined for the VTT model was divided into 55 by 55 square pattern with each grid 5 kilometers on a side. The regional system was modeled as a held potential surface layer and two underlying basalt layers. The regional model established the boundary conditions for the hydrologic model the Pasco Basin

  12. Additional Research Needs to Support the GENII Biosphere Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Napier, Bruce A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Snyder, Sandra F. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Arimescu, Carmen [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2013-11-01

    In the course of evaluating the current parameter needs for the GENII Version 2 code (Snyder et al. 2013), areas of possible improvement for both the data and the underlying models have been identified. As the data review was implemented, PNNL staff identified areas where the models can be improved both to accommodate the locally significant pathways identified and also to incorporate newer models. The areas are general data needs for the existing models and improved formulations for the pathway models.

  13. A terrestrial biosphere model optimized to atmospheric CO2 concentration and above ground woody biomass

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saito, M.; Ito, A.; Maksyutov, S. S.

    2013-12-01

    This study documents an optimization of a prognostic biosphere model (VISIT; Vegetation Integrative Similator for Trace gases) to observations of atmospheric CO2 concentration and above ground woody biomass by using a Bayesian inversion method combined with an atmospheric tracer transport model (NIES-TM; National Institute for Environmental Studies / Frontier Research Center for Global Change (NIES/FRCGC) off-line global atmospheric tracer transport model). The assimilated observations include 74 station records of surface atmospheric CO2 concentration and aggregated grid data sets of above ground woody biomass (AGB) and net primary productivity (NPP) over the globe. Both the biosphere model and the atmospheric transport model are used at a horizontal resolution of 2.5 deg x 2.5 deg grid with temporal resolutions of a day and an hour, respectively. The atmospheric transport model simulates atmospheric CO2 concentration with nine vertical levels using daily net ecosystem CO2 exchange rate (NEE) from the biosphere model, oceanic CO2 flux, and fossil fuel emission inventory. The models are driven by meteorological data from JRA-25 (Japanese 25-year ReAnalysis) and JCDAS (JMA Climate Data Assimilation System). Statistically optimum physiological parameters in the biosphere model are found by iterative minimization of the corresponding Bayesian cost function. We select thirteen physiological parameter with high sensitivity to NEE, NPP, and AGB for the minimization. Given the optimized physiological parameters, the model shows error reductions in seasonal variation of the CO2 concentrations especially in the northern hemisphere due to abundant observation stations, while errors remain at a few stations that are located in coastal coastal area and stations in the southern hemisphere. The model also produces moderate estimates of the mean magnitudes and probability distributions in AGB and NPP for each biome. However, the model fails in the simulation of the terrestrial

  14. Biosphere modelling for the safety assessment of high-level radioactive waste disposal in the Japanese H12 assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kato, Tomoko; Suzuki, Yuji; Ishiguro, Katsuhiko; Naito, Morimasa; Ishiguro, Katsuhiko; Ikeda, Takao; Little, Richard H.; Smith, Graham M.

    2002-01-01

    JNC has an on-going programme of research and development relating to the safety assessment of the deep geological disposal system of high-level radioactive waste (HLW). In the safety assessment of a HLW disposal system, it is often necessary to estimate future radiological impacts on human beings (e.g. radiation dose). In order to estimate dose, consideration needs to be given to the surface environment (biosphere) into which future releases of radionuclides might occur and to the associated future human behaviour. However, for a deep repository, such releases might not occur for many thousands of years after disposal. Over such timescales, it is not possible to predict with any certainty how the biosphere and human behaviour will evolve. To avoid endless speculation aimed at reducing such uncertainty, the reference biosphere le concept has been developed for use in the safety assessment of HLW disposal. The Reference Biospheres Methodology was originally developed by the BIOMOVS II Reference Biospheres Working Group and subsequently enhanced within Theme 1 of the BIOMASS programme. As the aim of the H12 assessment with a hypothetical HLW disposal system was to demonstrate the technical feasibility and reliability of the Japanese disposal concept for a range of geological and surface environments, some assessment specific reference biospheres were developed for the biosphere modelling in the H12 assessment using an approach consistent with the BIOMOVS II/BIOMASS approach. They have been used to derive factors to convert the radionuclide flux from a geosphere to a biosphere into a dose. The influx to dose conversion factor also have been derived for a range of different geosphere-biosphere interfaces (well, river and marine) and potential exposure groups (farming, freshwater-fishing and marine-fishing). This paper summarises the approach used for the derivation of the influx to dose conversion factor also for the range of geosphere-biosphere interfaces and

  15. Biospheric feedback effects in a synchronously coupled model of human and Earth systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Thornton, Peter E.; Calvin, Katherine V.; Jones, Andrew D.; Di Vittorio, Alan; Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin; Chini, Louise M.; Shi, Xiaoying; Mao, Jiafu; Collins, William D.; Edmonds, James A.; Thomson, Allison M.; Truesdale, John E.; Craig, Anthony P.; Branstetter, M.; Hurtt, George C.

    2017-06-12

    Fossil fuel combustion and land-use change are the first and second largest contributors to industrial-era increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration, which is itself the largest driver of present-day climate change1. Projections of fossil fuel consumption and land-use change are thus fundamental inputs for coupled Earth system models (ESM) used to estimate the physical and biological consequences of future climate system forcing2,3. While empirical datasets are available to inform historical analyses4,5, assessments of future climate change have relied on projections of energy and land use based on energy economic models, constrained using historical and present-day data and forced with assumptions about future policy, land-use patterns, and socio-economic development trajectories6. Here we show that the influence of biospheric change – the integrated effect of climatic, ecological, and geochemical processes – on land ecosystems has a significant impact on energy, agriculture, and land-use projections for the 21st century. Such feedbacks have been ignored in previous ESM studies of future climate. We find that synchronous exposure of land ecosystem productivity in the economic system to biospheric change as it develops in an ESM results in a 10% reduction of land area used for crop cultivation; increased managed forest area and land carbon; a 15-20% decrease in global crop price; and a 17% reduction in fossil fuel emissions for a low-mid range forcing scenario7. These simulation results demonstrate that biospheric change can significantly alter primary human system forcings to the climate system. This synchronous two-way coupling approach removes inconsistencies in description of climate change between human and biosphere components of the coupled model, mitigating a major source of uncertainty identified in assessments of future climate projections8-10.

  16. Future of Plant Functional Types in Terrestrial Biosphere Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wullschleger, S. D.; Euskirchen, E. S.; Iversen, C. M.; Rogers, A.; Serbin, S.

    2015-12-01

    Earth system models describe the physical, chemical, and biological processes that govern our global climate. While it is difficult to single out one component as being more important than another in these sophisticated models, terrestrial vegetation is a critical player in the biogeochemical and biophysical dynamics of the Earth system. There is much debate, however, as to how plant diversity and function should be represented in these models. Plant functional types (PFTs) have been adopted by modelers to represent broad groupings of plant species that share similar characteristics (e.g. growth form) and roles (e.g. photosynthetic pathway) in ecosystem function. In this review the PFT concept is traced from its origin in the early 1800s to its current use in regional and global dynamic vegetation models (DVMs). Special attention is given to the representation and parameterization of PFTs and to validation and benchmarking of predicted patterns of vegetation distribution in high-latitude ecosystems. These ecosystems are sensitive to changing climate and thus provide a useful test case for model-based simulations of past, current, and future distribution of vegetation. Models that incorporate the PFT concept predict many of the emerging patterns of vegetation change in tundra and boreal forests, given known processes of tree mortality, treeline migration, and shrub expansion. However, representation of above- and especially belowground traits for specific PFTs continues to be problematic. Potential solutions include developing trait databases and replacing fixed parameters for PFTs with formulations based on trait co-variance and empirical trait-environment relationships. Surprisingly, despite being important to land-atmosphere interactions of carbon, water, and energy, PFTs such as moss and lichen are largely absent from DVMs. Close collaboration among those involved in modelling with the disciplines of taxonomy, biogeography, ecology, and remote sensing will be

  17. Biosphere Modeling and Analyses in Support of Total System Performance Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tappen, J. J.; Wasiolek, M. A.; Wu, D. W.; Schmitt, J. F.; Smith, A. J.

    2002-01-01

    The Nuclear Waste Policy Act of 1982 established the obligations of and the relationship between the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), and the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) for the management and disposal of high-level radioactive wastes. In 1985, the EPA promulgated regulations that included a definition of performance assessment that did not consider potential dose to a member of the general public. This definition would influence the scope of activities conducted by DOE in support of the total system performance assessment program until 1995. The release of a National Academy of Sciences (NAS) report on the technical basis for a Yucca Mountain-specific standard provided the impetus for the DOE to initiate activities that would consider the attributes of the biosphere, i.e. that portion of the earth where living things, including man, exist and interact with the environment around them. The evolution of NRC and EPA Yucca Mountain-specific regulations, originally proposed in 1999, was critical to the development and integration of biosphere modeling and analyses into the total system performance assessment program. These proposed regulations initially differed in the conceptual representation of the receptor of interest to be considered in assessing performance. The publication in 2001 of final regulations in which the NRC adopted standard will permit the continued improvement and refinement of biosphere modeling and analyses activities in support of assessment activities

  18. Biosphere Modeling and Analyses in Support of Total System Performance Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jeff Tappen; M.A. Wasiolek; D.W. Wu; J.F. Schmitt

    2001-01-01

    The Nuclear Waste Policy Act of 1982 established the obligations of and the relationship between the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), and the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) for the management and disposal of high-level radioactive wastes. In 1985, the EPA promulgated regulations that included a definition of performance assessment that did not consider potential dose to a member of the general public. This definition would influence the scope of activities conducted by DOE in support of the total system performance assessment program until 1995. The release of a National Academy of Sciences (NAS) report on the technical basis for a Yucca Mountain-specific standard provided the impetus for the DOE to initiate activities that would consider the attributes of the biosphere, i.e. that portion of the earth where living things, including man, exist and interact with the environment around them. The evolution of NRC and EPA Yucca Mountain-specific regulations, originally proposed in 1999, was critical to the development and integration of biosphere modeling and analyses into the total system performance assessment program. These proposed regulations initially differed in the conceptual representation of the receptor of interest to be considered in assessing performance. The publication in 2001 of final regulations in which the NRC adopted standard will permit the continued improvement and refinement of biosphere modeling and analyses activities in support of assessment activities

  19. Modeling Impact of Urbanization in US Cities Using Simple Biosphere Model SiB2

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Ping; Bounoua, Lahouari; Thome, Kurtis; Wolfe, Robert

    2016-01-01

    We combine Landsat- and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)-based products, as well as climate drivers from Phase 2 of the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS-2) in a Simple Biosphere land surface model (SiB2) to assess the impact of urbanization in continental USA (excluding Alaska and Hawaii). More than 300 cities and their surrounding suburban and rural areas are defined in this study to characterize the impact of urbanization on surface climate including surface energy, carbon budget, and water balance. These analyses reveal an uneven impact of urbanization across the continent that should inform upon policy options for improving urban growth including heat mitigation and energy use, carbon sequestration and flood prevention.

  20. Evaluating spatial patterns in hydrological modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Koch, Julian

    the contiguous United Sates (10^6 km2). To this end, the thesis at hand applies a set of spatial performance metrics on various hydrological variables, namely land-surface-temperature (LST), evapotranspiration (ET) and soil moisture. The inspiration for the applied metrics is found in related fields...... is not fully exploited by current modelling frameworks due to the lack of suitable spatial performance metrics. Furthermore, the traditional model evaluation using discharge is found unsuitable to lay confidence on the predicted catchment inherent spatial variability of hydrological processes in a fully...

  1. Hydrological model in STEALTH 2-D code

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hart, R.; Hofmann, R.

    1979-10-01

    Porous media fluid flow logic has been added to the two-dimensional version of the STEALTH explicit finite-difference code. It is a first-order hydrological model based upon Darcy's Law. Anisotropic permeability can be prescribed through x and y directional permeabilities. The fluid flow equations are formulated for either two-dimensional translation symmetry or two-dimensional axial symmetry. The addition of the hydrological model to STEALTH is a first step toward analyzing a physical system's response to the coupling of thermal, mechanical, and fluid flow phenomena

  2. Radiological risk assessment and biosphere modelling for radioactive waste disposal in Switzerland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brennwald, M S; van Dorp, F

    2009-12-01

    Long-term safety assessments for geological disposal of radioactive waste in Switzerland involve the demonstration that the annual radiation dose to humans due to the potential release of radionuclides from the waste repository into the biosphere will not exceed the regulatory limit of 0.1 mSv. Here, we describe the simple but robust approach used by Nagra (Swiss National Cooperative for the Disposal of Radioactive Waste) to quantify the dose to humans as a result to time-dependent release of radionuclides from the geosphere into the biosphere. The model calculates the concentrations of radionuclides in different terrestrial and aquatic compartments of the surface environment. The fluxes of water and solids within the environment are the drivers for the exchange of radionuclides between these compartments. The calculated radionuclide concentrations in the biosphere are then used to estimate the radiation doses to humans due to various exposure paths (e.g. ingestion of radionuclides via drinking water and food, inhalation of radionuclides, external irradiation from radionuclides in soils). In this paper we also discuss recent new achievements and planned future work.

  3. Multi-criteria evaluation of hydrological models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rakovec, Oldrich; Clark, Martyn; Weerts, Albrecht; Hill, Mary; Teuling, Ryan; Uijlenhoet, Remko

    2013-04-01

    Over the last years, there is a tendency in the hydrological community to move from the simple conceptual models towards more complex, physically/process-based hydrological models. This is because conceptual models often fail to simulate the dynamics of the observations. However, there is little agreement on how much complexity needs to be considered within the complex process-based models. One way to proceed to is to improve understanding of what is important and unimportant in the models considered. The aim of this ongoing study is to evaluate structural model adequacy using alternative conceptual and process-based models of hydrological systems, with an emphasis on understanding how model complexity relates to observed hydrological processes. Some of the models require considerable execution time and the computationally frugal sensitivity analysis, model calibration and uncertainty quantification methods are well-suited to providing important insights for models with lengthy execution times. The current experiment evaluates two version of the Framework for Understanding Structural Errors (FUSE), which both enable running model inter-comparison experiments. One supports computationally efficient conceptual models, and the second supports more-process-based models that tend to have longer execution times. The conceptual FUSE combines components of 4 existing conceptual hydrological models. The process-based framework consists of different forms of Richard's equations, numerical solutions, groundwater parameterizations and hydraulic conductivity distribution. The hydrological analysis of the model processes has evolved from focusing only on simulated runoff (final model output), to also including other criteria such as soil moisture and groundwater levels. Parameter importance and associated structural importance are evaluated using different types of sensitivity analyses techniques, making use of both robust global methods (e.g. Sobol') as well as several

  4. Approaches to modelling hydrology and ecosystem interactions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silberstein, Richard P.

    2014-05-01

    As the pressures of industry, agriculture and mining on groundwater resources increase there is a burgeoning un-met need to be able to capture these multiple, direct and indirect stresses in a formal framework that will enable better assessment of impact scenarios. While there are many catchment hydrological models and there are some models that represent ecological states and change (e.g. FLAMES, Liedloff and Cook, 2007), these have not been linked in any deterministic or substantive way. Without such coupled eco-hydrological models quantitative assessments of impacts from water use intensification on water dependent ecosystems under changing climate are difficult, if not impossible. The concept would include facility for direct and indirect water related stresses that may develop around mining and well operations, climate stresses, such as rainfall and temperature, biological stresses, such as diseases and invasive species, and competition such as encroachment from other competing land uses. Indirect water impacts could be, for example, a change in groundwater conditions has an impact on stream flow regime, and hence aquatic ecosystems. This paper reviews previous work examining models combining ecology and hydrology with a view to developing a conceptual framework linking a biophysically defensable model that combines ecosystem function with hydrology. The objective is to develop a model capable of representing the cumulative impact of multiple stresses on water resources and associated ecosystem function.

  5. Integrating Biodiversity into Biosphere-Atmosphere Interactions Using Individual-Based Models (IBM)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, B.; Shugart, H. H., Jr.; Lerdau, M.

    2017-12-01

    A key component regulating complex, nonlinear, and dynamic biosphere-atmosphere interactions is the inherent diversity of biological systems. The model frameworks currently widely used, i.e., Plant Functional Type models) do not even begin to capture the metabolic and taxonomic diversity found in many terrestrial systems. We propose that a transition from PFT-based to individual-based modeling approaches (hereafter referred to as IBM) is essential for integrating biodiversity into research on biosphere-atmosphere interactions. The proposal emerges from our studying the interactions of forests with atmospheric processes in the context of climate change using an individual-based forest volatile organic compounds model, UVAFME-VOC. This individual-based model can explicitly simulate VOC emissions based on an explicit modelling of forest dynamics by computing the growth, death, and regeneration of each individual tree of different species and their competition for light, moisture, and nutrient, from which system-level VOC emissions are simulated by explicitly computing and summing up each individual's emissions. We found that elevated O3 significantly altered the forest dynamics by favoring species that are O3-resistant, which, meanwhile, are producers of isoprene. Such compositional changes, on the one hand, resulted in unsuppressed forest productivity and carbon stock because of the compensation by O3-resistant species. On the other hand, with more isoprene produced arising from increased producers, a possible positive feedback loop between tropospheric O3 and forest thereby emerged. We also found that climate warming will not always stimulate isoprene emissions because warming simultaneously reduces isoprene emissions by causing a decline in the abundance of isoprene-emitting species. These results suggest that species diversity is of great significance and that individual-based modelling strategies should be applied in studying biosphere-atmosphere interactions.

  6. Calibrating the simple biosphere model for Amazonian tropical forest using field and remote sensing data. I - Average calibration with field data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sellers, Piers J.; Shuttleworth, W. James; Dorman, Jeff L.; Dalcher, Amnon; Roberts, John M.

    1989-01-01

    Using meteorological and hydrological measurements taken in and above the central-Amazon-basin tropical forest, calibration of the Sellers et al. (1986) simple biosphere (SiB) model are described. The SiB model is a one-dimensional soil-vegetation-atmosphere model designed for use within GCMs models, representing the vegetation cover by analogy with processes operating within a single representative plant. The experimental systems and the procedures used to obtain field data are described, together with the specification of the physiological parameterization required to provide an average description of data. It was found that some of the existing literature on stomatal behavior for tropical species is inconsistent with the observed behavior of the complete canopy in Amazonia, and that the rainfall interception store of the canopy is considerably smaller than originally specified in the SiB model.

  7. Improving the Amazonian Hydrologic Cycle in a Coupled Land-Atmosphere, Single Column Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harper, A. B.; Denning, S.; Baker, I.; Prihodko, L.; Branson, M.

    2006-12-01

    We have coupled a land-surface model, the Simple Biosphere Model (SiB3), to a single column of the Colorado State University General Circulation Model (CSU-GCM) in the Amazon River Basin. This is a preliminary step in the broader goal of improved simulation of Basin-wide hydrology. A previous version of the coupled model (SiB2) showed drought and catastrophic dieback of the Amazon rain forest. SiB3 includes updated soil hydrology and root physiology. Our test area for the coupled single column model is near Santarem, Brazil, where measurements from the km 83 flux tower in the Tapajos National Forest can be used to evaluate model output. The model was run for 2001 using NCEP2 Reanalysis as driver data. Preliminary results show that the updated biosphere model coupled to the GCM produces improved simulations of the seasonal cycle of surface water balance and precipitation. Comparisons of the diurnal and seasonal cycles of surface fluxes are also being made.

  8. A multi-model assessment of terrestrial biosphere model data needs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gardella, A.; Cowdery, E.; De Kauwe, M. G.; Desai, A. R.; Duveneck, M.; Fer, I.; Fisher, R.; Knox, R. G.; Kooper, R.; LeBauer, D.; McCabe, T.; Minunno, F.; Raiho, A.; Serbin, S.; Shiklomanov, A. N.; Thomas, A.; Walker, A.; Dietze, M.

    2017-12-01

    Terrestrial biosphere models provide us with the means to simulate the impacts of climate change and their uncertainties. Going beyond direct observation and experimentation, models synthesize our current understanding of ecosystem processes and can give us insight on data needed to constrain model parameters. In previous work, we leveraged the Predictive Ecosystem Analyzer (PEcAn) to assess the contribution of different parameters to the uncertainty of the Ecosystem Demography model v2 (ED) model outputs across various North American biomes (Dietze et al., JGR-G, 2014). While this analysis identified key research priorities, the extent to which these priorities were model- and/or biome-specific was unclear. Furthermore, because the analysis only studied one model, we were unable to comment on the effect of variability in model structure to overall predictive uncertainty. Here, we expand this analysis to all biomes globally and a wide sample of models that vary in complexity: BioCro, CABLE, CLM, DALEC, ED2, FATES, G'DAY, JULES, LANDIS, LINKAGES, LPJ-GUESS, MAESPA, PRELES, SDGVM, SIPNET, and TEM. Prior to performing uncertainty analyses, model parameter uncertainties were assessed by assimilating all available trait data from the combination of the BETYdb and TRY trait databases, using an updated multivariate version of PEcAn's Hierarchical Bayesian meta-analysis. Next, sensitivity analyses were performed for all models across a range of sites globally to assess sensitivities for a range of different outputs (GPP, ET, SH, Ra, NPP, Rh, NEE, LAI) at multiple time scales from the sub-annual to the decadal. Finally, parameter uncertainties and model sensitivities were combined to evaluate the fractional contribution of each parameter to the predictive uncertainty for a specific variable at a specific site and timescale. Facilitated by PEcAn's automated workflows, this analysis represents the broadest assessment of the sensitivities and uncertainties in terrestrial

  9. Root structural and functional dynamics in terrestrial biosphere models--evaluation and recommendations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Warren, Jeffrey M; Hanson, Paul J; Iversen, Colleen M; Kumar, Jitendra; Walker, Anthony P; Wullschleger, Stan D

    2015-01-01

    There is wide breadth of root function within ecosystems that should be considered when modeling the terrestrial biosphere. Root structure and function are closely associated with control of plant water and nutrient uptake from the soil, plant carbon (C) assimilation, partitioning and release to the soils, and control of biogeochemical cycles through interactions within the rhizosphere. Root function is extremely dynamic and dependent on internal plant signals, root traits and morphology, and the physical, chemical and biotic soil environment. While plant roots have significant structural and functional plasticity to changing environmental conditions, their dynamics are noticeably absent from the land component of process-based Earth system models used to simulate global biogeochemical cycling. Their dynamic representation in large-scale models should improve model veracity. Here, we describe current root inclusion in models across scales, ranging from mechanistic processes of single roots to parameterized root processes operating at the landscape scale. With this foundation we discuss how existing and future root functional knowledge, new data compilation efforts, and novel modeling platforms can be leveraged to enhance root functionality in large-scale terrestrial biosphere models by improving parameterization within models, and introducing new components such as dynamic root distribution and root functional traits linked to resource extraction. No claim to original US Government works. New Phytologist © 2014 New Phytologist Trust.

  10. Land-surface modelling in hydrological perspective

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Overgaard, Jesper; Rosbjerg, Dan; Butts, M.B.

    2006-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to provide a review of the different types of energy-based land-surface models (LSMs) and discuss some of the new possibilities that will arise when energy-based LSMs are combined with distributed hydrological modelling. We choose to focus on energy-based approaches......, and the difficulties inherent in various evaluation procedures are presented. Finally, the dynamic coupling of hydrological and atmospheric models is explored, and the perspectives of such efforts are discussed......., because in comparison to the traditional potential evapotranspiration models, these approaches allow for a stronger link to remote sensing and atmospheric modelling. New opportunities for evaluation of distributed land-surface models through application of remote sensing are discussed in detail...

  11. Modeling the hydrological cycle on Mars

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ghada Machtoub

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available The study provides a detailed analysis of the hydrological cycle on Mars simulated with a newly developed microphysical model, incorporated in a spectral Mars General Circulation Model. The modeled hydrological cycle is compared well with simulations of other global climate models. The simulated seasonal migration ofwater vapor, circulation instability, and the high degree of temporal variability of localized water vapor outbursts are shown closely consistent with recent observations. The microphysical parameterization provides a significant improvement in the modeling of ice clouds evolved over the tropics and major ancient volcanoes on Mars. The most significant difference between the simulations presented here and other GCM results is the level at which the water ice clouds are found. The model findings also support interpretation of observed thermal anomalies in the Martian tropics during northern spring and summer seasons.

  12. A global model of carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus cycles for the terrestrial biosphere

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. P. Wang

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available Carbon storage by many terrestrial ecosystems can be limited by nutrients, predominantly nitrogen (N and phosphorus (P, in addition to other environmental constraints, water, light and temperature. However the spatial distribution and the extent of both N and P limitation at the global scale have not been quantified. Here we have developed a global model of carbon (C, nitrogen (N and phosphorus (P cycles for the terrestrial biosphere. Model estimates of steady state C and N pool sizes and major fluxes between plant, litter and soil pools, under present climate conditions, agree well with various independent estimates. The total amount of C in the terrestrial biosphere is 2767 Gt C, and the C fractions in plant, litter and soil organic matter are 19%, 4% and 77%. The total amount of N is 135 Gt N, with about 94% stored in the soil, 5% in the plant live biomass, and 1% in litter. We found that the estimates of total soil P and its partitioning into different pools in soil are quite sensitive to biochemical P mineralization. The total amount of P (plant biomass, litter and soil excluding occluded P in soil is 17 Gt P in the terrestrial biosphere, 33% of which is stored in the soil organic matter if biochemical P mineralization is modelled, or 31 Gt P with 67% in soil organic matter otherwise.

    This model was used to derive the global distribution and uncertainty of N or P limitation on the productivity of terrestrial ecosystems at steady state under present conditions. Our model estimates that the net primary productivity of most tropical evergreen broadleaf forests and tropical savannahs is reduced by about 20% on average by P limitation, and most of the remaining biomes are N limited; N limitation is strongest in high latitude deciduous needle leaf forests, and reduces its net primary productivity by up to 40% under present conditions.

  13. The Middle Miocene climate as modelled in an atmosphere-ocean-biosphere model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Krapp

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available We present simulations with a coupled atmosphere-ocean-biosphere model for the Middle Miocene 15 million years ago. The model is insofar more consistent than previous models because it captures the essential interactions between ocean and atmosphere and between atmosphere and vegetation. The Middle Miocene topography, which alters both large-scale ocean and atmospheric circulations, causes a global warming of 0.7 K compared to present day. Higher than present-day CO2 levels of 480 and 720 ppm cause a global warming of 2.8 and 4.9 K. The associated water vapour feedback enhances the greenhouse effect which leads to a polar amplification of the warming. These results suggest that higher than present-day CO2 levels are necessary to drive the warm Middle Miocene climate, also because the dynamic vegetation model simulates a denser vegetation which is in line with fossil records. However, we do not find a flatter than present-day equator-to-pole temperature gradient as has been suggested by marine and terrestrial proxies. Instead, a compensation between atmospheric and ocean heat transport counteracts the flattening of the temperature gradient. The acclaimed role of the large-scale ocean circulation in redistributing heat cannot be supported by our results. Including full ocean dynamics, therefore, does not solve the problem of the flat temperature gradient during the Middle Miocene.

  14. Hydrological Modelling the Middle Magdalena Valley (Colombia)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arenas, M. C.; Duque, N.; Arboleda, P.; Guadagnini, A.; Riva, M.; Donado-Garzon, L. D.

    2017-12-01

    Hydrological distributed modeling is key point for a comprehensive assessment of the feedback between the dynamics of the hydrological cycle, climate conditions and land use. Such modeling results are markedly relevant in the fields of water resources management, natural hazards and oil and gas industry. Here, we employ TopModel (TOPography based hydrological MODEL) for the hydrological modeling of an area in the Middle Magdalena Valley (MMV), a tropical basin located in Colombia. This study is located over the intertropical convergence zone and is characterized by special meteorological conditions, with fast water fluxes over the year. It has been subject to significant land use changes, as a result of intense economical activities, i.e., and agriculture, energy and oil & gas production. The model employees a record of 12 years of daily precipitation and evapotranspiration data as inputs. Streamflow data monitored across the same time frame are used for model calibration. The latter is performed by considering data from 2000 to 2008. Model validation then relies on observations from 2009 to 2012. The robustness of our analyses is based on the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient (values of this metric being 0.62 and 0.53, respectively for model calibration and validation). Our results reveal high water storage capacity in the soil, and a marked subsurface runoff, consistent with the characteristics of the soil types in the regions. A significant influence on runoff response of the basin to topographical factors represented in the model is evidenced. Our calibrated model provides relevant indications about recharge in the region, which is important to quantify the interaction between surface water and groundwater, specially during the dry season, which is more relevant in climate-change and climate-variability scenarios.

  15. Application of biosphere models in the Biomosa project: a comparative assessment of five European radioactive waste disposal sites

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kowe, R.; Mobbs, S.; Proehl, G.; Bergstrom, U.; Kanyar, B.; Olyslaegers, G.; Zeevaert, T.; Simon, I.

    2004-01-01

    The BIOMOSA (Biosphere Models for Safety Assessment of Radioactive Waste Disposal) project is a part of the EC fifth framework research programme. The main goal of this project is the improvement of the scientific basis for the application of biosphere models in the framework of long-term safety studies of radioactive waste disposal facilities. Furthermore, the outcome of the project will provide operators and regulatory bodies with guidelines for performance assessments of repository systems. The study focuses on the development and application of site-specific models and a generic biosphere tool BIOGEM (Biosphere Generic Model), using the experience from the national programmes and the IAEA BIOMASS reference biosphere methodology. The models were applied to 5 typical locations in the EU, resulting in estimates of the annual individual doses to the critical groups and the ranking of the importance of the pathways for each of the sites. The results of the site-specific and generic models were then compared. In all cases the doses calculated by the generic model were less than the doses obtained from the site-specific models. Uncertainty in the results was estimated by means of stochastic calculations which allow a comparison of the overall model uncertainty with the variability across the different sites considered. (author)

  16. Hydrological catchment modelling: past, present and future

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper discusses basic issues in hydrological modelling and flood forecasting, ranging from the roles of physically-based and data-driven rainfall runoff models, to the concepts of predictive uncertainty and equifinality and their implications. The evolution of a wide range of hydrological catchment models employing the physically meaningful and data-driven approaches introduces the need for objective test beds or benchmarks to assess the merits of the different models in reconciling the alternative approaches. In addition, the paper analyses uncertainty in models and predictions by clarifying the meaning of uncertainty, by distinguishing between parameter and predictive uncertainty and by demonstrating how the concept of equifinality must be addressed by appropriate and robust inference approaches. Finally, the importance of predictive uncertainty in the decision making process is highlighted together with possible approaches aimed at overcoming the diffidence of end-users.

  17. The Biosphere.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cloud, Preston

    1983-01-01

    Discusses the earth's biosphere, considering how the microbial, animal and plant life (which make up the biosphere) are sustained by the earth's lithosphere, hydrosphere, and atmosphere. Also considers how these three earth features have powerfully shaped the evolution of these organisms. (JN)

  18. Soil-to-Plant Concentration Ratios for Assessing Food Chain Pathways in Biosphere Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Napier, Bruce A.; Fellows, Robert J.; Krupka, Kenneth M.

    2007-10-01

    This report describes work performed for the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s project Assessment of Food Chain Pathway Parameters in Biosphere Models, which was established to assess and evaluate a number of key parameters used in the food-chain models used in performance assessments of radioactive waste disposal facilities. Section 2 of this report summarizes characteristics of samples of soils and groundwater from three geographical regions of the United States, the Southeast, Northwest, and Southwest, and analyses performed to characterize their physical and chemical properties. Because the uptake and behavior of radionuclides in plant roots, plant leaves, and animal products depends on the chemistry of the water and soil coming in contact with plants and animals, water and soil samples collected from these regions of the United States were used in experiments at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory to determine radionuclide soil-to-plant concentration ratios. Crops and forage used in the experiments were grown in the soils, and long-lived radionuclides introduced into the groundwater provide the contaminated water used to water the grown plants. The radionuclides evaluated include 99Tc, 238Pu, and 241Am. Plant varieties include alfalfa, corn, onion, and potato. The radionuclide uptake results from this research study show how regional variations in water quality and soil chemistry affect radionuclide uptake. Section 3 summarizes the procedures and results of the uptake experiments, and relates the soil-to-plant uptake factors derived. In Section 4, the results found in this study are compared with similar values found in the biosphere modeling literature; the study’s results are generally in line with current literature, but soil- and plant-specific differences are noticeable. This food-chain pathway data may be used by the NRC staff to assess dose to persons in the reference biosphere (e.g., persons who live and work in an area potentially affected by

  19. Multi-model analysis in hydrological prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lanthier, M.; Arsenault, R.; Brissette, F.

    2017-12-01

    Hydrologic modelling, by nature, is a simplification of the real-world hydrologic system. Therefore ensemble hydrological predictions thus obtained do not present the full range of possible streamflow outcomes, thereby producing ensembles which demonstrate errors in variance such as under-dispersion. Past studies show that lumped models used in prediction mode can return satisfactory results, especially when there is not enough information available on the watershed to run a distributed model. But all lumped models greatly simplify the complex processes of the hydrologic cycle. To generate more spread in the hydrologic ensemble predictions, multi-model ensembles have been considered. In this study, the aim is to propose and analyse a method that gives an ensemble streamflow prediction that properly represents the forecast probabilities and reduced ensemble bias. To achieve this, three simple lumped models are used to generate an ensemble. These will also be combined using multi-model averaging techniques, which generally generate a more accurate hydrogram than the best of the individual models in simulation mode. This new predictive combined hydrogram is added to the ensemble, thus creating a large ensemble which may improve the variability while also improving the ensemble mean bias. The quality of the predictions is then assessed on different periods: 2 weeks, 1 month, 3 months and 6 months using a PIT Histogram of the percentiles of the real observation volumes with respect to the volumes of the ensemble members. Initially, the models were run using historical weather data to generate synthetic flows. This worked for individual models, but not for the multi-model and for the large ensemble. Consequently, by performing data assimilation at each prediction period and thus adjusting the initial states of the models, the PIT Histogram could be constructed using the observed flows while allowing the use of the multi-model predictions. The under-dispersion has been

  20. Modeling Surface Climate in US Cities Using Simple Biosphere Model Sib2

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Ping; Bounoua, Lahouari; Thome, Kurtis; Wolfe, Robert; Imhoff, Marc

    2015-01-01

    We combine Landsat- and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)-based products in the Simple Biosphere model (SiB2) to assess the effects of urbanized land on the continental US (CONUS) surface climate. Using National Land Cover Database (NLCD) Impervious Surface Area (ISA), we define more than 300 urban settlements and their surrounding suburban and rural areas over the CONUS. The SiB2 modeled Gross Primary Production (GPP) over the CONUS of 7.10 PgC (1 PgC= 10(exp 15) grams of Carbon) is comparable to the MODIS improved GPP of 6.29 PgC. At state level, SiB2 GPP is highly correlated with MODIS GPP with a correlation coefficient of 0.94. An increasing horizontal GPP gradient is shown from the urban out to the rural area, with, on average, rural areas fixing 30% more GPP than urbans. Cities built in forested biomes have stronger UHI magnitude than those built in short vegetation with low biomass. Mediterranean climate cities have a stronger UHI in wet season than dry season. Our results also show that for urban areas built within forests, 39% of the precipitation is discharged as surface runoff during summer versus 23% in rural areas.

  1. Modelling the effect of land use change on hydrological model ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Modelling the effect of land use change on hydrological model parameters via linearized calibration method in the upstream of Huaihe River Basin, China. ... is presented, based on the analysis of the problems of the objective function of the ...

  2. Grid based calibration of SWAT hydrological models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Gorgan

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available The calibration and execution of large hydrological models, such as SWAT (soil and water assessment tool, developed for large areas, high resolution, and huge input data, need not only quite a long execution time but also high computation resources. SWAT hydrological model supports studies and predictions of the impact of land management practices on water, sediment, and agricultural chemical yields in complex watersheds. The paper presents the gSWAT application as a web practical solution for environmental specialists to calibrate extensive hydrological models and to run scenarios, by hiding the complex control of processes and heterogeneous resources across the grid based high computation infrastructure. The paper highlights the basic functionalities of the gSWAT platform, and the features of the graphical user interface. The presentation is concerned with the development of working sessions, interactive control of calibration, direct and basic editing of parameters, process monitoring, and graphical and interactive visualization of the results. The experiments performed on different SWAT models and the obtained results argue the benefits brought by the grid parallel and distributed environment as a solution for the processing platform. All the instances of SWAT models used in the reported experiments have been developed through the enviroGRIDS project, targeting the Black Sea catchment area.

  3. Biosphere Modeling for the Dose Assessment of a HLW Repository: Development of ACBIO

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Youn Myoung; Hwang, Yong Soo; Kang, Chul Hyung

    2006-01-15

    For the purpose of evaluating a dose rate to an individual due to a long-term release of nuclides from a HLW repository, a biosphere assessment model and an implemented code, ACBIO, based on the BIOMASS methodology have been developed by utilizing AMBER, a general compartment modeling tool. To demonstrate its practicability and usability as well as to observe the sensitivity of the compartment scheme, the concentration, the activity in the compartments as well as the annual flux between the compartments at their peak values, were calculated and investigated. For each case when changing the structure of the compartments and GBIs as well as varying selected input Kd values, all of which seem very important among the others, the dose rate per nuclide release rate is calculated separately and analyzed. From the maximum dose rates, the flux to dose conversion factors for each nuclide were derived, which are used for converting the nuclide release rate appearing from the geosphere through various GBIs to dose rates (Sv/y) for an individual in a critical group. It has also been observed that the compartment scheme, the identification of a possible exposure group and the GBIs could all be highly sensitive to the final consequences in a biosphere modeling.

  4. Biospheric feedback effects in a synchronously coupled model of human and Earth systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thornton, P. E.; Calvin, K. V.; Jones, A. D.; Di Vittorio, A. V.; Bond-Lamberty, B. P.; Chini, L. P.; Shi, X.; Mao, J.; Collins, W. D.; Edmonds, J.; Hurtt, G. C.

    2017-12-01

    Fossil fuel combustion and land-use change are the two largest contributors to industrial-era increases in atmospheric CO2 concentration. Projections of these are thus fundamental inputs for coupled Earth system models (ESMs) used to estimate the physical and biological consequences of future climate system forcing. While historical datasets are available to inform past and current climate analyses, assessments of future climate change have relied on projections of energy and land use from energy economic models, constrained by assumptions about future policy, land-use patterns, and socio-economic development trajectories. In this work we show that the climatic impacts on land ecosystems drives significant feedbacks in energy, agriculture, land-use, and carbon cycle projections for the 21st century. We find that exposure of human appropriated land ecosystem productivity to biospheric change results in reductions of land area used for crops; increases in managed forest area and carbon stocks; decreases in global crop prices; and reduction in fossil fuel emissions for a low-mid range forcing scenario. Land ecosystem response to increased carbon dioxide concentration, increased anthropogenic nitrogen deposition, and changes in temperature and precipitation all play a role. The feedbacks between climate-induced biospheric change and human system forcings to the climate system demonstrated in this work are handled inconsistently, or excluded altogether, in the one-way asynchronous coupling of energy economic models to ESMs used to date.

  5. Biosphere Modeling for the Dose Assessment of a HLW Repository: Development of ACBIO

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Youn Myoung; Hwang, Yong Soo; Kang, Chul Hyung

    2006-01-01

    For the purpose of evaluating a dose rate to an individual due to a long-term release of nuclides from a HLW repository, a biosphere assessment model and an implemented code, ACBIO, based on the BIOMASS methodology have been developed by utilizing AMBER, a general compartment modeling tool. To demonstrate its practicability and usability as well as to observe the sensitivity of the compartment scheme, the concentration, the activity in the compartments as well as the annual flux between the compartments at their peak values, were calculated and investigated. For each case when changing the structure of the compartments and GBIs as well as varying selected input Kd values, all of which seem very important among the others, the dose rate per nuclide release rate is calculated separately and analyzed. From the maximum dose rates, the flux to dose conversion factors for each nuclide were derived, which are used for converting the nuclide release rate appearing from the geosphere through various GBIs to dose rates (Sv/y) for an individual in a critical group. It has also been observed that the compartment scheme, the identification of a possible exposure group and the GBIs could all be highly sensitive to the final consequences in a biosphere modeling

  6. The disposal of Canada's nuclear fuel waste: the biosphere model, BIOTRAC, for postclosure assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Davis, P.A.; Zach, R.; Stephens, M.E.; Amiro, B.D.; Bird, G.A.; Reid, J.A.K.; Sheppard, M.I.; Sheppard, S.C.; Stephenson, M.

    1993-01-01

    The nuclear fuel waste management concept of Canada calls for disposal of the waste in a vault mined deep in plutonic rock of the Canadian Shield. The technical feasibility of this concept, and its impact on the environment and human health, will be documented in an Environmental Impact statement (EIS) by AECL. The present report is one of nine EIS primary references. The report describes the BIOTRAC model, which is used to trace nuclide movement from the geosphere through the biosphere and to calculate time-dependent environmental concentrations and radiological doses to humans and other biota for the postclosure phase. These concentrations and doses are crucial for evaluating the safety and environmental acceptability of the concept in terms of chemical and radiological toxicity. BIOTRAC was developed specifically to assess the impacts of a used-fuel disposal vault. It is a comprehensive, generic model with distributed or probabilistic parameter values to account for spatial and temporal variability and uncertainty. It is composed of four separate but closely linked submodels representing surface waters, soils, the atmosphere and the food chain. It also includes a unique model for predicting radiological doses to non-human biota, represented by generic target organisms. The mathematical formulation of each submodel is derived in detail and interpreted physically, and all the assumptions are fully evaluated and discussed. It is shown how the parameter values and distributions adopted for each submodel are derived from the available data. The interfaces between the submodels, and between BIOTRAC and the geosphere model, are presented in detail. Fluctuations in the physical state of the biosphere are accounted for through the parameter distributions. Major environmental changes, such as those caused by continental glaciation, are addressed quantitatively and through reasoned arguments, which indicate that radiological doses to humans will not increase suddenly or

  7. Olkiluoto surface and near-surface hydrological modelling in 2010

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Karvonen, T.

    2011-08-01

    The modeling approaches carried out with the Olkiluoto surface hydrological model (SHYD) include palaeohydrological evolution of the Olkiluoto Island, examination of the boundary condition at the geosphere-biosphere interface zone, simulations related to infiltration experiment, prediction of the influence of ONKALO on hydraulic head in shallow and deep bedrock and optimisation of the shallow monitoring network. A so called short-term prediction system was developed for continuous updating of the estimated drawdowns caused by ONKALO. The palaeohydrological simulations were computed for a period starting from the time when the highest hills on Olkiluoto Island rose above sea level around 2 500 years ago. The input data needed in the model were produced by the UNTAMO-toolbox. The groundwater flow evolution is primarily driven by the postglacial land uplift and the uncertainty in the land uplift model is the biggest single factor that influences the accuracy of the results. The consistency of the boundary condition at the geosphere-biosphere interface zone (GBIZ) was studied during 2010. The comparison carried out during 2010 showed that pressure head profiles computed with the SHYD model and deep groundwater flow model FEFTRA are in good agreement with each other in the uppermost 100 m of the bedrock. This implies that flux profiles computed with the two approaches are close to each other and hydraulic heads computed at level z=0 m with the SHYD can be used as head boundary condition in the deep groundwater flow model FEFTRA. The surface hydrological model was used to analyse the results of the infiltration experiment. Increase in bedrock recharge inside WCA explains around 60-63 % from the amount of water pumped from OL-KR14 and 37-40 % of the water pumped from OL-KR14 flows towards pumping section via the hydrogeological zones. Pumping from OL-KR14 has only a minor effect on heads and fluxes in zones HZ19A and HZ19C compared to responses caused by leakages into

  8. A comparative Study between GoldSim and AMBER Based Biosphere Assessment Models for an HLW Repository

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Youn-Myoung; Hwang, Yong-Soo

    2007-01-01

    To demonstrate the performance of a repository, the dose exposure rate to human being due to long-term nuclide releases from a high-level waste repository (HLW) should be evaluated and the results compared to the dose limit presented by the regulatory bodies. To evaluate such a dose rate to an individual, biosphere assessment models have been developed and implemented for a practical calculation with the aid of such commercial tools as AMBER and GoldSim, both of which are capable of probabilistic and deterministic calculation. AMBER is a general purpose compartment modeling tool and GoldSim is another multipurpose simulation tool for dynamically modeling complex systems, supporting a higher graphical user interface than AMBER and a postprocessing feature. And also unlike AMBER, any kind of compartment scheme can be rather simply constructed with an appropriate transition rate between compartments, GoldSim is designed to facilitate the object-oriented modules to address any specialized programs, similar to solving jig saw puzzles. During the last couple of years a compartment modeling approach for a biosphere has been mainly carried out with AMBER in KAERI in order to conservatively or rather roughly provide dose conversion factors to get the final exposure rate due to a nuclide flux into biosphere over various geosphere-biosphere interfaces (GBIs) calculated through nuclide transport modules. This caused a necessity for a newly devised biosphere model that could be coupled to a nuclide transport model with less conservatism in the frame of the development of a total system performance assessment modeling tool, which could be successfully done with the aid of GoldSim. Therefore, through the current study, some comparison results of the AMBER and the GoldSim approaches for the same case of a biosphere modeling without any consideration of geosphere transport are introduced by extending a previous study

  9. Biosphere modelling for dose assessments of radioactive waste repositories. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Klos, R.

    1996-09-01

    The aims of the Complementary Studies Working Group were: to investigate and explain differences which exist between contemporary models with respect to how, for a given test case, they represent the modelled Features, Events and Processes (FEPs) and how the nature of these representations affects the calculational end-points; to determine the most appropriate ways of representing key FEPs; to identify where knowledge needs to be improved to give better representations of these key FEPs in the future and where simplifications of existing formulations might be possible; to show that the modelling undertaken is suitable for purpose, in that it is robust and that it is unlikely that the radiological consequences calculated by the models would be underestimated (so that any conservative bias in the models is justified); to build confidence in the available modelling tools; to extend the work undertaken in the first phase of BIOMOVS to include consideration of radiological dose. Ten modelling groups from Western Europe and Canada have participated, revealing a variety of representations of radionuclide transport processes and techniques for calculating dose. The exercise has focused on the ways in which key FEPs are represented with the intention of determining the robustness or otherwise of existing representations. This has been achieved by applying a well defined dataset representative of a Central European inland valley. Human habits and lifestyle are chosen to be representative of a subsistence agricultural community. Climatic conditions are those of the present day. Many of the conclusions have relevance beyond the immediate concerns of the Central European biospheres and, although care should be exercised when terms of reference differ greatly from the system detailed here, much has been learned which has wider applicability. The exercise has successfully compared not only the behaviour of biosphere models for waste disposal assessments, but has also provided the

  10. Biosphere modelling for dose assessments of radioactive waste repositories. Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Klos, R. [Paul Scherrer Inst., Wuerenlingen (Switzerland)] [and others

    1996-09-01

    The aims of the Complementary Studies Working Group were: to investigate and explain differences which exist between contemporary models with respect to how, for a given test case, they represent the modelled Features, Events and Processes (FEPs) and how the nature of these representations affects the calculational end-points; to determine the most appropriate ways of representing key FEPs; to identify where knowledge needs to be improved to give better representations of these key FEPs in the future and where simplifications of existing formulations might be possible; to show that the modelling undertaken is suitable for purpose, in that it is robust and that it is unlikely that the radiological consequences calculated by the models would be underestimated (so that any conservative bias in the models is justified); to build confidence in the available modelling tools; to extend the work undertaken in the first phase of BIOMOVS to include consideration of radiological dose. Ten modelling groups from Western Europe and Canada have participated, revealing a variety of representations of radionuclide transport processes and techniques for calculating dose. The exercise has focused on the ways in which key FEPs are represented with the intention of determining the robustness or otherwise of existing representations. This has been achieved by applying a well defined dataset representative of a Central European inland valley. Human habits and lifestyle are chosen to be representative of a subsistence agricultural community. Climatic conditions are those of the present day. Many of the conclusions have relevance beyond the immediate concerns of the Central European biospheres and, although care should be exercised when terms of reference differ greatly from the system detailed here, much has been learned which has wider applicability. The exercise has successfully compared not only the behaviour of biosphere models for waste disposal assessments, but has also provided the

  11. Proving the ecosystem value through hydrological modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dorner, W; Spachinger, K; Metzka, R; Porter, M

    2008-01-01

    Ecosystems provide valuable functions. Also natural floodplains and river structures offer different types of ecosystem functions such as habitat function, recreational area and natural detention. From an economic stand point the loss (or rehabilitation) of these natural systems and their provided natural services can be valued as a damage (or benefit). Consequently these natural goods and services must be economically valued in project assessments e.g. cost-benefit-analysis or cost comparison. Especially in smaller catchments and river systems exists significant evidence that natural flood detention reduces flood risk and contributes to flood protection. Several research projects evaluated the mitigating effect of land use, river training and the loss of natural flood plains on development, peak and volume of floods. The presented project analysis the hypothesis that ignoring natural detention and hydrological ecosystem services could result in economically inefficient solutions for flood protection and mitigation. In test areas, subcatchments of the Danube in Germany, a combination of hydrological and hydrodynamic models with economic evaluation techniques was applied. Different forms of land use, river structure and flood protection measures were assed and compared from a hydrological and economic point of view. A hydrodynamic model was used to simulate flows to assess the extent of flood affected areas and damages to buildings and infrastructure as well as to investigate the impacts of levees and river structure on a local scale. These model results provided the basis for an economic assessment. Different economic valuation techniques, such as flood damage functions, cost comparison method and substation-approach were used to compare the outcomes of different hydrological scenarios from an economic point of view and value the ecosystem service. The results give significant evidence that natural detention must be evaluated as part of flood mitigation projects

  12. Short description of the BIOS-model, and selection of biosphere parameters to be used in radionuclide transport and dose

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jong, E.J. de; Koester, H.W.; Vries, W.J. de.

    1990-02-01

    In the framework of the PACOMA-project (Performance assessment of confinements for medium and alpha waste), initiated by the European Commission, possible future radiation doses, due to contamination of the biosphere by radionuclides originating from radioactive waste disposed in salt-formations, were calculated. In all cases considered radionuclides coming out of the geosphere enter a river. For the biosphere calculations the BIOS-model, developed by the NRPB in England, is used. A short description of the model, as well as of the adjustments made at the RIVM to calculate the total individual and collective doses and the subdoses of different exposure pathways is given. The values of biosphere parameters selected for the model are presented, together with the literature consulted. (author). 17 refs., 3 figs.; 2 tabs

  13. Grey Box Modelling of Hydrological Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thordarson, Fannar Ørn

    of two papers where the stochastic differential equation based model is used for sewer runoff from a drainage system. A simple model is used to describe a complex rainfall-runoff process in a catchment, but the stochastic part of the system is formulated to include the increasing uncertainty when...... rainwater flows through the system, as well as describe the lower limit of the uncertainty when the flow approaches zero. The first paper demonstrates in detail the grey box model and all related transformations required to obtain a feasible model for the sewer runoff. In the last paper this model is used......The main topic of the thesis is grey box modelling of hydrologic systems, as well as formulation and assessment of their embedded uncertainties. Grey box model is a combination of a white box model, a physically-based model that is traditionally formulated using deterministic ordinary differential...

  14. Robust estimation of hydrological model parameters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Bárdossy

    2008-11-01

    Full Text Available The estimation of hydrological model parameters is a challenging task. With increasing capacity of computational power several complex optimization algorithms have emerged, but none of the algorithms gives a unique and very best parameter vector. The parameters of fitted hydrological models depend upon the input data. The quality of input data cannot be assured as there may be measurement errors for both input and state variables. In this study a methodology has been developed to find a set of robust parameter vectors for a hydrological model. To see the effect of observational error on parameters, stochastically generated synthetic measurement errors were applied to observed discharge and temperature data. With this modified data, the model was calibrated and the effect of measurement errors on parameters was analysed. It was found that the measurement errors have a significant effect on the best performing parameter vector. The erroneous data led to very different optimal parameter vectors. To overcome this problem and to find a set of robust parameter vectors, a geometrical approach based on Tukey's half space depth was used. The depth of the set of N randomly generated parameters was calculated with respect to the set with the best model performance (Nash-Sutclife efficiency was used for this study for each parameter vector. Based on the depth of parameter vectors, one can find a set of robust parameter vectors. The results show that the parameters chosen according to the above criteria have low sensitivity and perform well when transfered to a different time period. The method is demonstrated on the upper Neckar catchment in Germany. The conceptual HBV model was used for this study.

  15. An integrated crop and hydrologic modeling system to estimate hydrologic impacts of crop irrigation demands

    Science.gov (United States)

    R.T. McNider; C. Handyside; K. Doty; W.L. Ellenburg; J.F. Cruise; J.R. Christy; D. Moss; V. Sharda; G. Hoogenboom; Peter Caldwell

    2015-01-01

    The present paper discusses a coupled gridded crop modeling and hydrologic modeling system that can examine the benefits of irrigation and costs of irrigation and the coincident impact of the irrigation water withdrawals on surface water hydrology. The system is applied to the Southeastern U.S. The system tools to be discussed include a gridded version (GriDSSAT) of...

  16. Biosphere modelling for a deep radioactive waste repository: site-specific consideration of the groundwater-soil pathway

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grogan, H.A.; Baeyens, B.; Mueller, H.; Dorp, F. van

    1991-07-01

    Scenario evaluations indicate that groundwater is the most probable pathway for released radionuclides to reach the biosphere from a deep underground nuclear waste repository. This report considers a small valley in northern Switzerland where the transport of groundwater to surface soil might be possible. The hydrological situation has been examined to allow a system of compartments and fluxes for modelling this pathway with respect to the release of radionuclides from an underground repository to be produced. Assuming present day conditions the best estimate surface soil concentrations are calculated by dividing the soil into two layers (deep soil, surface soil) and assuming an annual upward flux of 10 mm from the groundwater through the two soil layers. A constant unit activity concentration is assumed for the radionuclides in the groundwater. It is concluded that the resultant best estimate values must still be considered to be biased on the conservative side, in view of the fact that the more typical situation is likely to be that no groundwater reaches the surface soil. Upper and lower estimates for the surface soil radionuclide concentrations are based on the parameter perturbation results which were carried out for three key parameters, i.e. precipitation surplus, upward flux and solid-liquid distribution coefficients (K d ). It is noted that attention must be given to the functional relationships which exist between various model parameters. Upper estimates for the surface soil concentration are determined assuming a higher annual upward flux (100 mm) as well as a more conservative K d value compared with the base case. This gives rise to surface soil concentrations more than two orders of magnitude higher than the best estimate values. The lower estimated are more easily assigned assuming that no activity reaches the surface soil via this pathway. (author) 18 figs., 4 tabs., refs

  17. Development of atmosphere-soil-vegetation model for investigation of radioactive materials transport in terrestrial biosphere

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Katata, Genki; Nagai, Haruyasu; Zhang, Leiming; Held, Andreas; Serca, Dominique; Klemm, Otto

    2010-01-01

    In order to investigate the transport of radionuclides in the terrestrial biosphere we have developed a one-dimensional numerical model named SOLVEG that predicts the transfer of water, heat, and gaseous and particulate matters in atmosphere-soil-vegetation system. The SOLVEG represents atmosphere, soil, and vegetation as an aggregation of several layers. Basic equations used in the model are solved using the finite difference method. Most of predicted variables are interrelated with the source/sink terms of momentum, water, heat, gases, and particles based on mathematically described biophysical processes in atmosphere, soil and vegetation. The SOLVEG can estimate dry, wet and fog deposition of gaseous and particulate matters at each canopy layer. Performance tests of the SOLVEG with several observational sites were carried out. The SOLVEG predicted the observed temporal changes in water vapor, CO 2 , and ozone fluxes over vegetated surfaces. The SOLVEG also reproduced measured fluxes of fog droplets and of fine aerosols over the forest. (author)

  18. A Smallholder Socio-hydrological Modelling Framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pande, S.; Savenije, H.; Rathore, P.

    2014-12-01

    Small holders are farmers who own less than 2 ha of farmland. They often have low productivity and thus remain at subsistence level. A fact that nearly 80% of Indian farmers are smallholders, who merely own a third of total farmlands and belong to the poorest quartile, but produce nearly 40% of countries foodgrains underlines the importance of understanding the socio-hydrology of a small holder. We present a framework to understand the socio-hydrological system dynamics of a small holder. It couples the dynamics of 6 main variables that are most relevant at the scale of a small holder: local storage (soil moisture and other water storage), capital, knowledge, livestock production, soil fertility and grass biomass production. The model incorporates rule-based adaptation mechanisms (for example: adjusting expenditures on food and fertilizers, selling livestocks etc.) of small holders when they face adverse socio-hydrological conditions, such as low annual rainfall, higher intra-annual variability in rainfall or variability in agricultural prices. It allows us to study sustainability of small holder farming systems under various settings. We apply the framework to understand the socio-hydrology of small holders in Aurangabad, Maharashtra, India. This district has witnessed suicides of many sugarcane farmers who could not extricate themselves out of the debt trap. These farmers lack irrigation and are susceptible to fluctuating sugar prices and intra-annual hydroclimatic variability. This presentation discusses two aspects in particular: whether government interventions to absolve the debt of farmers is enough and what is the value of investing in local storages that can buffer intra-annual variability in rainfall and strengthening the safety-nets either by creating opportunities for alternative sources of income or by crop diversification.

  19. Physical models for classroom teaching in hydrology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Rodhe

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Hydrology teaching benefits from the fact that many important processes can be illustrated and explained with simple physical models. A set of mobile physical models has been developed and used during many years of lecturing at basic university level teaching in hydrology. One model, with which many phenomena can be demonstrated, consists of a 1.0-m-long plexiglass container containing an about 0.25-m-deep open sand aquifer through which water is circulated. The model can be used for showing the groundwater table and its influence on the water content in the unsaturated zone and for quantitative determination of hydraulic properties such as the storage coefficient and the saturated hydraulic conductivity. It is also well suited for discussions on the runoff process and the significance of recharge and discharge areas for groundwater. The flow paths of water and contaminant dispersion can be illustrated in tracer experiments using fluorescent or colour dye. This and a few other physical models, with suggested demonstrations and experiments, are described in this article. The finding from using models in classroom teaching is that it creates curiosity among the students, promotes discussions and most likely deepens the understanding of the basic processes.

  20. Embedding complex hydrology in the climate system - towards fully coupled climate-hydrology models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Butts, M.; Rasmussen, S.H.; Ridler, M.

    2013-01-01

    Motivated by the need to develop better tools to understand the impact of future management and climate change on water resources, we present a set of studies with the overall aim of developing a fully dynamic coupling between a comprehensive hydrological model, MIKE SHE, and a regional climate...... distributed parameters using satellite remote sensing. Secondly, field data are used to investigate the effects of model resolution and parameter scales for use in a coupled model. Finally, the development of the fully coupled climate-hydrology model is described and some of the challenges associated...... with coupling models for hydrological processes on sub-grid scales of the regional climate model are presented....

  1. On the uncertainty of phenological responses to climate change, and implications for a terrestrial biosphere model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Migliavacca

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Phenology, the timing of recurring life cycle events, controls numerous land surface feedbacks to the climate system through the regulation of exchanges of carbon, water and energy between the biosphere and atmosphere.

    Terrestrial biosphere models, however, are known to have systematic errors in the simulation of spring phenology, which potentially could propagate to uncertainty in modeled responses to future climate change. Here, we used the Harvard Forest phenology record to investigate and characterize sources of uncertainty in predicting phenology, and the subsequent impacts on model forecasts of carbon and water cycling. Using a model-data fusion approach, we combined information from 20 yr of phenological observations of 11 North American woody species, with 12 leaf bud-burst models that varied in complexity.

    Akaike's Information Criterion indicated support for spring warming models with photoperiod limitations and, to a lesser extent, models that included chilling requirements.

    We assessed three different sources of uncertainty in phenological forecasts: parameter uncertainty, model uncertainty, and driver uncertainty. The latter was characterized running the models to 2099 using 2 different IPCC climate scenarios (A1fi vs. B1, i.e. high CO2 emissions vs. low CO2 emissions scenario. Parameter uncertainty was the smallest (average 95% Confidence Interval – CI: 2.4 days century−1 for scenario B1 and 4.5 days century−1 for A1fi, whereas driver uncertainty was the largest (up to 8.4 days century−1 in the simulated trends. The uncertainty related to model structure is also large and the predicted bud-burst trends as well as the shape of the smoothed projections varied among models (±7.7 days century−1 for A1fi, ±3.6 days century−1 for B1. The forecast sensitivity of bud-burst to temperature (i.e. days bud-burst advanced per

  2. Scale effect challenges in urban hydrology highlighted with a distributed hydrological model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ichiba, Abdellah; Gires, Auguste; Tchiguirinskaia, Ioulia; Schertzer, Daniel; Bompard, Philippe; Ten Veldhuis, Marie-Claire

    2018-01-01

    Hydrological models are extensively used in urban water management, development and evaluation of future scenarios and research activities. There is a growing interest in the development of fully distributed and grid-based models. However, some complex questions related to scale effects are not yet fully understood and still remain open issues in urban hydrology. In this paper we propose a two-step investigation framework to illustrate the extent of scale effects in urban hydrology. First, fractal tools are used to highlight the scale dependence observed within distributed data input into urban hydrological models. Then an intensive multi-scale modelling work is carried out to understand scale effects on hydrological model performance. Investigations are conducted using a fully distributed and physically based model, Multi-Hydro, developed at Ecole des Ponts ParisTech. The model is implemented at 17 spatial resolutions ranging from 100 to 5 m. Results clearly exhibit scale effect challenges in urban hydrology modelling. The applicability of fractal concepts highlights the scale dependence observed within distributed data. Patterns of geophysical data change when the size of the observation pixel changes. The multi-scale modelling investigation confirms scale effects on hydrological model performance. Results are analysed over three ranges of scales identified in the fractal analysis and confirmed through modelling. This work also discusses some remaining issues in urban hydrology modelling related to the availability of high-quality data at high resolutions, and model numerical instabilities as well as the computation time requirements. The main findings of this paper enable a replacement of traditional methods of model calibration by innovative methods of model resolution alteration based on the spatial data variability and scaling of flows in urban hydrology.

  3. Modelling sequential Biosphere systems under Climate change for radioactive waste disposal. Project BIOCLIM

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Texier, D.; Degnan, P.; Loutre, M.F.; Lemaitre, G.; Paillard, D.; Thorne, M.

    2000-01-01

    The BIOCLIM project (Modelling Sequential Biosphere systems under Climate change for Radioactive Waste Disposal) is part of the EURATOM fifth European framework programme. The project was launched in October 2000 for a three-year period. It is coordinated by ANDRA, the French national radioactive waste management agency. The project brings together a number of European radioactive waste management organisations that have national responsibilities for the safe disposal of radioactive wastes, and several highly experienced climate research teams. Waste management organisations involved are: NIREX (UK), GRS (Germany), ENRESA (Spain), NRI (Czech Republic) and ANDRA (France). Climate research teams involved are: LSCE (CEA/CNRS, France), CIEMAT (Spain), UPMETSIMM (Spain), UCL/ASTR (Belgium) and CRU (UEA, UK). The Environmental Agency for England and Wales provides a regulatory perspective. The consulting company Enviros Consulting (UK) assists ANDRA by contributing to both the administrative and scientific aspects of the project. This paper describes the project and progress to date. (authors)

  4. Hydrology under change: an evaluation protocol to investigate how hydrological models deal with changing catchments

    Science.gov (United States)

    G. Thirel; V. Andreassian; C. Perrin; J.-N. Audouy; L. Berthet; Pamela Edwards; N. Folton; C. Furusho; A. Kuentz; J. Lerat; G. Lindstrom; E. Martin; T. Mathevet; R. Merz; J. Parajka; D. Ruelland; J. Vaze

    2015-01-01

    Testing hydrological models under changing conditions is essential to evaluate their ability to cope with changing catchments and their suitability for impact studies. With this perspective in mind, a workshop dedicated to this issue was held at the 2013 General Assembly of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences (IAHS) in Göteborg, Sweden, in July 2013...

  5. ERM model analysis for adaptation to hydrological model errors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baymani-Nezhad, M.; Han, D.

    2018-05-01

    Hydrological conditions are changed continuously and these phenomenons generate errors on flood forecasting models and will lead to get unrealistic results. Therefore, to overcome these difficulties, a concept called model updating is proposed in hydrological studies. Real-time model updating is one of the challenging processes in hydrological sciences and has not been entirely solved due to lack of knowledge about the future state of the catchment under study. Basically, in terms of flood forecasting process, errors propagated from the rainfall-runoff model are enumerated as the main source of uncertainty in the forecasting model. Hence, to dominate the exciting errors, several methods have been proposed by researchers to update the rainfall-runoff models such as parameter updating, model state updating, and correction on input data. The current study focuses on investigations about the ability of rainfall-runoff model parameters to cope with three types of existing errors, timing, shape and volume as the common errors in hydrological modelling. The new lumped model, the ERM model, has been selected for this study to evaluate its parameters for its use in model updating to cope with the stated errors. Investigation about ten events proves that the ERM model parameters can be updated to cope with the errors without the need to recalibrate the model.

  6. Transport in biosphere of radionuclides released from finally disposed nuclear waste - background information for transport and dose model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hulmi, R.; Savolainen, I.

    1981-07-01

    An outline is made about the biosphere transport and dose models employed in the estimation of doses due to releases from finally disposed nuclear waste. The models often divide into two parts; the first one describes the transport of radionuclides in those parts of biosphere where the time scale is large (e.g. soil, sea and sea sediment), the second part of the model describes the transport of nuclides in the systems where the time scale is small (e.g. food chains, plants and animals). The description of biosphere conditions includes remarkable uncertainty due to the complexity of the biosphere and its ecosystems. Therefore studies of scenario type are recommended: some values of parametres describing the conditions are assumed, and the consequences are estimated by using these values. The effect of uncertainty in various factors on the uncertainty of final results should be investigated with the employment of alternative scenarios and parametric sensitivity studies. In addition to the ordinary results, intermediate results should be presented. A proposal for the structure of a transport and dose program based on dynamic linear compartment model is presented and mathematical solution alternatives are studied also

  7. Biosphere modeling for safety assessment to high-level radioactive waste geological disposal. Application of reference biosphere methodology to safety assesment of geological disposal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baba, Tomoko; Ishihara, Yoshinao; Ishiguro, Katsuhiko; Suzuki, Yuji; Naito, Morimasa

    2000-01-01

    In the safety assessment of a high-level radioactive waste disposal system, it is required to estimate future radiological impacts on human beings. Consideration of living habits and the human environment in the future involves a large degree of uncertainty. To avoid endless speculation aimed at reducing such uncertainty, an approach is applied for identifying and justifying a 'reference biosphere' for use in safety assessment in Japan. considering a wide range of Japanese geological environments, saline specific reference biospheres' were developed using an approach consistent with the BIOMOVS II reference biosphere methodology. (author)

  8. Preindustrial nitrous oxide emissions from the land biosphere estimated by using a global biogeochemistry model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Rongting; Tian, Hanqin; Lu, Chaoqun; Pan, Shufen; Chen, Jian; Yang, Jia; Zhang, Bowen

    2017-07-01

    To accurately assess how increased global nitrous oxide (N2O) emission has affected the climate system requires a robust estimation of the preindustrial N2O emissions since only the difference between current and preindustrial emissions represents net drivers of anthropogenic climate change. However, large uncertainty exists in previous estimates of preindustrial N2O emissions from the land biosphere, while preindustrial N2O emissions on the finer scales, such as regional, biome, or sector scales, have not been well quantified yet. In this study, we applied a process-based Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model (DLEM) to estimate the magnitude and spatial patterns of preindustrial N2O fluxes at the biome, continental, and global level as driven by multiple environmental factors. Uncertainties associated with key parameters were also evaluated. Our study indicates that the mean of the preindustrial N2O emission was approximately 6.20 Tg N yr-1, with an uncertainty range of 4.76 to 8.13 Tg N yr-1. The estimated N2O emission varied significantly at spatial and biome levels. South America, Africa, and Southern Asia accounted for 34.12, 23.85, and 18.93 %, respectively, together contributing 76.90 % of global total emission. The tropics were identified as the major source of N2O released into the atmosphere, accounting for 64.66 % of the total emission. Our multi-scale estimates provide a robust reference for assessing the climate forcing of anthropogenic N2O emission from the land biosphere

  9. Preindustrial nitrous oxide emissions from the land biosphere estimated by using a global biogeochemistry model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Xu

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available To accurately assess how increased global nitrous oxide (N2O emission has affected the climate system requires a robust estimation of the preindustrial N2O emissions since only the difference between current and preindustrial emissions represents net drivers of anthropogenic climate change. However, large uncertainty exists in previous estimates of preindustrial N2O emissions from the land biosphere, while preindustrial N2O emissions on the finer scales, such as regional, biome, or sector scales, have not been well quantified yet. In this study, we applied a process-based Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model (DLEM to estimate the magnitude and spatial patterns of preindustrial N2O fluxes at the biome, continental, and global level as driven by multiple environmental factors. Uncertainties associated with key parameters were also evaluated. Our study indicates that the mean of the preindustrial N2O emission was approximately 6.20 Tg N yr−1, with an uncertainty range of 4.76 to 8.13 Tg N yr−1. The estimated N2O emission varied significantly at spatial and biome levels. South America, Africa, and Southern Asia accounted for 34.12, 23.85, and 18.93 %, respectively, together contributing 76.90 % of global total emission. The tropics were identified as the major source of N2O released into the atmosphere, accounting for 64.66 % of the total emission. Our multi-scale estimates provide a robust reference for assessing the climate forcing of anthropogenic N2O emission from the land biosphere

  10. Multi-model analysis of terrestrial carbon cycles in Japan: reducing uncertainties in model outputs among different terrestrial biosphere models using flux observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ichii, K.; Suzuki, T.; Kato, T.; Ito, A.; Hajima, T.; Ueyama, M.; Sasai, T.; Hirata, R.; Saigusa, N.; Ohtani, Y.; Takagi, K.

    2009-08-01

    Terrestrial biosphere models show large uncertainties when simulating carbon and water cycles, and reducing these uncertainties is a priority for developing more accurate estimates of both terrestrial ecosystem statuses and future climate changes. To reduce uncertainties and improve the understanding of these carbon budgets, we investigated the ability of flux datasets to improve model simulations and reduce variabilities among multi-model outputs of terrestrial biosphere models in Japan. Using 9 terrestrial biosphere models (Support Vector Machine-based regressions, TOPS, CASA, VISIT, Biome-BGC, DAYCENT, SEIB, LPJ, and TRIFFID), we conducted two simulations: (1) point simulations at four flux sites in Japan and (2) spatial simulations for Japan with a default model (based on original settings) and an improved model (based on calibration using flux observations). Generally, models using default model settings showed large deviations in model outputs from observation with large model-by-model variability. However, after we calibrated the model parameters using flux observations (GPP, RE and NEP), most models successfully simulated seasonal variations in the carbon cycle, with less variability among models. We also found that interannual variations in the carbon cycle are mostly consistent among models and observations. Spatial analysis also showed a large reduction in the variability among model outputs, and model calibration using flux observations significantly improved the model outputs. These results show that to reduce uncertainties among terrestrial biosphere models, we need to conduct careful validation and calibration with available flux observations. Flux observation data significantly improved terrestrial biosphere models, not only on a point scale but also on spatial scales.

  11. Carbon-14 in the biosphere: Modeling and supporting research for the Canadian Nuclear Fuel Waste Management program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sheppard, S.C.; Amiro, B.D.; Sheppard, M.I.; Stephenson, M.; Zach, R.; Bird, G.A.

    1994-01-01

    Carbon-14 stands apart from most of the radionuclides present in nuclear fuel waste for several reasons. It has a relatively long radiological half-life and low retardation by granitic geological media so that 14 C is superceded only by 36 Cl and 129 I in potential release to the biosphere from unprocessed used fuel. In the biosphere, its importance continues because it is readily incorporated into the carbon compounds of life. Much of the behavior of 14 C in the biosphere can be conceptualized as isotopic exchange, where the 14 C mixes with 12 C from the biosphere. However, because of lack of data, the authors model the behavior of 14 C only partly as isotopic exchange, with most of the calculations relying on compartment transfer models. The authors experimental work has shown that soil-to-plant transfer may be dominated by the soil-atmosphere-plant pathway. Gaseous loss of 14 C from soils and lakes is significant. However, recalcitrant forms may persist in soils and sediments for long time periods. The impact of these forms is expected to be relatively low because their bioavailability is correspondingly low. Future research should be directed to support full modeling of 14 C as a series of isotopic exchange processes

  12. Assimilation of remote sensing observations into a continuous distributed hydrological model: impacts on the hydrologic cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laiolo, Paola; Gabellani, Simone; Campo, Lorenzo; Cenci, Luca; Silvestro, Francesco; Delogu, Fabio; Boni, Giorgio; Rudari, Roberto

    2015-04-01

    The reliable estimation of hydrological variables (e.g. soil moisture, evapotranspiration, surface temperature) in space and time is of fundamental importance in operational hydrology to improve the forecast of the rainfall-runoff response of catchments and, consequently, flood predictions. Nowadays remote sensing can offer a chance to provide good space-time estimates of several hydrological variables and then improve hydrological model performances especially in environments with scarce in-situ data. This work investigates the impact of the assimilation of different remote sensing products on the hydrological cycle by using a continuous physically based distributed hydrological model. Three soil moisture products derived by ASCAT (Advanced SCATterometer) are used to update the model state variables. The satellite-derived products are assimilated into the hydrological model using different assimilation techniques: a simple nudging and the Ensemble Kalman Filter. Moreover two assimilation strategies are evaluated to assess the impact of assimilating the satellite products at model spatial resolution or at the satellite scale. The experiments are carried out for three Italian catchments on multi year period. The benefits on the model predictions of discharge, LST, evapotranspiration and soil moisture dynamics are tested and discussed.

  13. Calibration of hydrological model with programme PEST

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brilly, Mitja; Vidmar, Andrej; Kryžanowski, Andrej; Bezak, Nejc; Šraj, Mojca

    2016-04-01

    PEST is tool based on minimization of an objective function related to the root mean square error between the model output and the measurement. We use "singular value decomposition", section of the PEST control file, and Tikhonov regularization method for successfully estimation of model parameters. The PEST sometimes failed if inverse problems were ill-posed, but (SVD) ensures that PEST maintains numerical stability. The choice of the initial guess for the initial parameter values is an important issue in the PEST and need expert knowledge. The flexible nature of the PEST software and its ability to be applied to whole catchments at once give results of calibration performed extremely well across high number of sub catchments. Use of parallel computing version of PEST called BeoPEST was successfully useful to speed up calibration process. BeoPEST employs smart slaves and point-to-point communications to transfer data between the master and slaves computers. The HBV-light model is a simple multi-tank-type model for simulating precipitation-runoff. It is conceptual balance model of catchment hydrology which simulates discharge using rainfall, temperature and estimates of potential evaporation. Version of HBV-light-CLI allows the user to run HBV-light from the command line. Input and results files are in XML form. This allows to easily connecting it with other applications such as pre and post-processing utilities and PEST itself. The procedure was applied on hydrological model of Savinja catchment (1852 km2) and consists of twenty one sub-catchments. Data are temporary processed on hourly basis.

  14. A Better Representation of European Croplands into a Global Biosphere Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gervois, S.; de Noblet, N.; Viovy, N.; Ciais, P.; Brisson, N.; Seguin, B.

    2002-12-01

    Croplands cover a quarter of Europe's surface (about an hundred million hectares), their impact on carbon and water fluxes must therefore be estimated. Global biosphere models such as ORCHIDEE (http://www.ipsl.jussieu.fr/~ssipsl/) were conceived to simulate natural ecosystems only, so croplands are often described as grasslands. Not only cropland productivity depends on climate and soil conditions but also on irrigations, fertilisers impact, date of sowing... In addition crop species are usually selected genetically to shorten and accelerate their growth. Agronomic models such as STICS (Brisson et al. 1998) give a more realistic picture of croplands as they are especially designed to account for this human forcing. On the other hand they can be used at the local scale only. First we evaluate the ability of the two models to reproduce the seasonal behaviour the leaf area index (LAI), the aerial biomass, and the exchanges of water vapour and CO2 with the atmosphere. For that we compare the model outputs with measurements performed at five sites that are representative of most common European crops (wheat, corn, soybean). As expected the agronomic STICS better behaves than the generic model ORCHIDEE in representing the seasonal cycle of the above variables. In order to get a realistic representation of croplands areas at the regional scale, we decided to couple ORCHIDEE with STICS. First we present the main steps of the coupling procedure. The principle consists in forcing ORCHIDEE with five more realistic outputs of STICS: LAI, date of harvest, nitrogen stress, root profile, and vegetation height. On the other hand, ORCHIDEE computes its own carbon and water balance. The allocation scheme was also modified in ORCHIDEE in order to conserve the coherence between LAI and leaf biomass, and we added a harvest module into ORCHIDEE. The coupled model was validated against carbon and water fluxes observed respectively at two fields (wheat and corn) in the US. We also

  15. Technical note: A hydrological routing scheme for the Ecosystem Demography model (ED2+R tested in the Tapajós River basin in the Brazilian Amazon

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. F. Pereira

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Land surface models are excellent tools for studying how climate change and land use affect surface hydrology. However, in order to assess the impacts of Earth processes on river flows, simulated changes in runoff need to be routed through the landscape. In this technical note, we describe the integration of the Ecosystem Demography (ED2 model with a hydrological routing scheme. The purpose of the study was to create a tool capable of incorporating to hydrological predictions the terrestrial ecosystem responses to climate, carbon dioxide, and land-use change, as simulated with terrestrial biosphere models. The resulting ED2+R model calculates the lateral routing of surface and subsurface runoff resulting from the terrestrial biosphere models' vertical water balance in order to determine spatiotemporal patterns of river flows within the simulated region. We evaluated the ED2+R model in the Tapajós, a 476 674 km2 river basin in the southeastern Amazon, Brazil. The results showed that the integration of ED2 with the lateral routing scheme results in an adequate representation (Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency up to 0.76, Kling–Gupta efficiency up to 0.86, Pearson's R up to 0.88, and volume ratio up to 1.06 of daily to decadal river flow dynamics in the Tapajós. These results are a consistent step forward with respect to the no river representation common among terrestrial biosphere models, such as the initial version of ED2.

  16. Eco-hydrologic model cascades: Simulating land use and climate change impacts on hydrology, hydraulics and habitats for fish and macroinvertebrates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guse, Björn; Kail, Jochem; Radinger, Johannes; Schröder, Maria; Kiesel, Jens; Hering, Daniel; Wolter, Christian; Fohrer, Nicola

    2015-11-15

    Climate and land use changes affect the hydro- and biosphere at different spatial scales. These changes alter hydrological processes at the catchment scale, which impact hydrodynamics and habitat conditions for biota at the river reach scale. In order to investigate the impact of large-scale changes on biota, a cascade of models at different scales is required. Using scenario simulations, the impact of climate and land use change can be compared along the model cascade. Such a cascade of consecutively coupled models was applied in this study. Discharge and water quality are predicted with a hydrological model at the catchment scale. The hydraulic flow conditions are predicted by hydrodynamic models. The habitat suitability under these hydraulic and water quality conditions is assessed based on habitat models for fish and macroinvertebrates. This modelling cascade was applied to predict and compare the impacts of climate- and land use changes at different scales to finally assess their effects on fish and macroinvertebrates. Model simulations revealed that magnitude and direction of change differed along the modelling cascade. Whilst the hydrological model predicted a relevant decrease of discharge due to climate change, the hydraulic conditions changed less. Generally, the habitat suitability for fish decreased but this was strongly species-specific and suitability even increased for some species. In contrast to climate change, the effect of land use change on discharge was negligible. However, land use change had a stronger impact on the modelled nitrate concentrations affecting the abundances of macroinvertebrates. The scenario simulations for the two organism groups illustrated that direction and intensity of changes in habitat suitability are highly species-dependent. Thus, a joined model analysis of different organism groups combined with the results of hydrological and hydrodynamic models is recommended to assess the impact of climate and land use changes on

  17. Hydrological modelling in sandstone rocks watershed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ponížilová, Iva; Unucka, Jan

    2015-04-01

    The contribution is focused on the modelling of surface and subsurface runoff in the Ploučnice basin. The used rainfall-runoff model is HEC-HMS comprising of the method of SCS CN curves and a recession method. The geological subsurface consisting of sandstone is characterised by reduced surface runoff and, on the contrary, it contributes to subsurface runoff. The aim of this paper is comparison of the rate of influence of sandstone on reducing surface runoff. The recession method for subsurface runoff was used to determine the subsurface runoff. The HEC-HMS model allows semi- and fully distributed approaches to schematisation of the watershed and rainfall situations. To determine the volume of runoff the method of SCS CN curves is used, which results depend on hydrological conditions of the soils. The rainfall-runoff model assuming selection of so-called methods of event of the SCS-CN type is used to determine the hydrograph and peak flow rate based on simulation of surface runoff in precipitation exceeding the infiltration capacity of the soil. The recession method is used to solve the baseflow (subsurface) runoff. The method is based on the separation of hydrograph to direct runoff and subsurface or baseflow runoff. The study area for the simulation of runoff using the method of SCS CN curves to determine the hydrological transformation is the Ploučnice basin. The Ploučnice is a hydrologically significant river in the northern part of the Czech Republic, it is a right tributary of the Elbe river with a total basin area of 1.194 km2. The average value of CN curves for the Ploučnice basin is 72. The geological structure of the Ploučnice basin is predominantly formed by Mesozoic sandstone. Despite significant initial loss of rainfall the basin response to the causal rainfall was demonstrated by a rapid rise of the surface runoff from the watershed and reached culmination flow. Basically, only surface runoff occures in the catchment during the initial phase of

  18. Combined effects of climate models, hydrological model structures and land use scenarios on hydrological impacts of climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Karlsson, Ida B.; Sonnenborg, Torben O.; Refsgaard, Jens Christian

    2016-01-01

    Impact studies of the hydrological response of future climate change are important for the water authorities when risk assessment, management and adaptation to a changing climate are carried out. The objective of this study was to model the combined effect of land use and climate changes...... use scenarios. The results revealed that even though the hydrological models all showed similar performance during calibration, the mean discharge response to climate change varied up to 30%, and the variations were even higher for extreme events (1th and 99th percentile). Land use changes appeared...... to cause little change in mean hydrological responses and little variation between hydrological models. Differences in hydrological model responses to land use were, however, significant for extremes due to dissimilarities in hydrological model structure and process equations. The climate model choice...

  19. Analysing the temporal dynamics of model performance for hydrological models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Reusser, D.E.; Blume, T.; Schaefli, B.; Zehe, E.

    2009-01-01

    The temporal dynamics of hydrological model performance gives insights into errors that cannot be obtained from global performance measures assigning a single number to the fit of a simulated time series to an observed reference series. These errors can include errors in data, model parameters, or

  20. Stochastic sensitivity analysis of the biosphere model for Canadian nuclear fuel waste management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reid, J.A.K.; Corbett, B.J.

    1993-01-01

    The biosphere model, BIOTRAC, was constructed to assess Canada's concept for nuclear fuel waste disposal in a vault deep in crystalline rock at some as yet undetermined location in the Canadian Shield. The model is therefore very general and based on the shield as a whole. BIOTRAC is made up of four linked submodels for surface water, soil, atmosphere, and food chain and dose. The model simulates physical conditions and radionuclide flows from the discharge of a hypothetical nuclear fuel waste disposal vault through groundwater, a well, a lake, air, soil, and plants to a critical group of individuals, i.e., those who are most exposed and therefore receive the highest dose. This critical group is totally self-sufficient and is represented by the International Commission for Radiological Protection reference man for dose prediction. BIOTRAC is a dynamic model that assumes steady-state physical conditions for each simulation, and deals with variation and uncertainty through Monte Carlo simulation techniques. This paper describes SENSYV, a technique for analyzing pathway and parameter sensitivities for the BIOTRAC code run in stochastic mode. Results are presented for 129 I from the disposal of used fuel, and they confirm the importance of doses via the soil/plant/man and the air/plant/man ingestion pathways. The results also indicate that the lake/well water use switch, the aquatic iodine mass loading parameter, the iodine soil evasion rate, and the iodine plant/soil concentration ratio are important parameters

  1. The evolution of process-based hydrologic models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Clark, Martyn P.; Bierkens, Marc F.P.; Samaniego, Luis; Woods, Ross A.; Uijlenhoet, Remko; Bennett, Katrina E.; Pauwels, Valentijn R.N.; Cai, Xitian; Wood, Andrew W.; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.

    2017-01-01

    The diversity in hydrologic models has historically led to great controversy on the "correct" approach to process-based hydrologic modeling, with debates centered on the adequacy of process parameterizations, data limitations and uncertainty, and computational constraints on model analysis. In this

  2. Predicting ecosystem dynamics at regional scales: an evaluation of a terrestrial biosphere model for the forests of northeastern North America.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Medvigy, David; Moorcroft, Paul R

    2012-01-19

    Terrestrial biosphere models are important tools for diagnosing both the current state of the terrestrial carbon cycle and forecasting terrestrial ecosystem responses to global change. While there are a number of ongoing assessments of the short-term predictive capabilities of terrestrial biosphere models using flux-tower measurements, to date there have been relatively few assessments of their ability to predict longer term, decadal-scale biomass dynamics. Here, we present the results of a regional-scale evaluation of the Ecosystem Demography version 2 (ED2)-structured terrestrial biosphere model, evaluating the model's predictions against forest inventory measurements for the northeast USA and Quebec from 1985 to 1995. Simulations were conducted using a default parametrization, which used parameter values from the literature, and a constrained model parametrization, which had been developed by constraining the model's predictions against 2 years of measurements from a single site, Harvard Forest (42.5° N, 72.1° W). The analysis shows that the constrained model parametrization offered marked improvements over the default model formulation, capturing large-scale variation in patterns of biomass dynamics despite marked differences in climate forcing, land-use history and species-composition across the region. These results imply that data-constrained parametrizations of structured biosphere models such as ED2 can be successfully used for regional-scale ecosystem prediction and forecasting. We also assess the model's ability to capture sub-grid scale heterogeneity in the dynamics of biomass growth and mortality of different sizes and types of trees, and then discuss the implications of these analyses for further reducing the remaining biases in the model's predictions.

  3. Modeling the impact of climate change in Germany with biosphere models for long-term safety assessment of nuclear waste repositories

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Staudt, C.; Semiochkina, N.; Kaiser, J.C.; Pröhl, G.

    2013-01-01

    Biosphere models are used to evaluate the exposure of populations to radionuclides from a deep geological repository. Since the time frame for assessments of long-time disposal safety is 1 million years, potential future climate changes need to be accounted for. Potential future climate conditions were defined for northern Germany according to model results from the BIOCLIM project. Nine present day reference climate regions were defined to cover those future climate conditions. A biosphere model was developed according to the BIOMASS methodology of the IAEA and model parameters were adjusted to the conditions at the reference climate regions. The model includes exposure pathways common to those reference climate regions in a stylized biosphere and relevant to the exposure of a hypothetical self-sustaining population at the site of potential radionuclide contamination from a deep geological repository. The end points of the model are Biosphere Dose Conversion factors (BDCF) for a range of radionuclides and scenarios normalized for a constant radionuclide concentration in near-surface groundwater. Model results suggest an increased exposure of in dry climate regions with a high impact of drinking water consumption rates and the amount of irrigation water used for agriculture. - Highlights: ► We model Biosphere Dose Conversion Factors for a representative group exposed to radionuclides from a waste repository. ► The BDCF are modeled for different soil types. ► One model is used for the assessment of the influence of climate change during the disposal time frame.

  4. A Thermal Evolution Model of the Earth Including the Biosphere, Continental Growth and Mantle Hydration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Höning, D.; Spohn, T.

    2014-12-01

    By harvesting solar energy and converting it to chemical energy, photosynthetic life plays an important role in the energy budget of Earth [2]. This leads to alterations of chemical reservoirs eventually affecting the Earth's interior [4]. It further has been speculated [3] that the formation of continents may be a consequence of the evolution life. A steady state model [1] suggests that the Earth without its biosphere would evolve to a steady state with a smaller continent coverage and a dryer mantle than is observed today. We present a model including (i) parameterized thermal evolution, (ii) continental growth and destruction, and (iii) mantle water regassing and outgassing. The biosphere enhances the production rate of sediments which eventually are subducted. These sediments are assumed to (i) carry water to depth bound in stable mineral phases and (ii) have the potential to suppress shallow dewatering of the underlying sediments and crust due to their low permeability. We run a Monte Carlo simulation for various initial conditions and treat all those parameter combinations as success which result in the fraction of continental crust coverage observed for present day Earth. Finally, we simulate the evolution of an abiotic Earth using the same set of parameters but a reduced rate of continental weathering and erosion. Our results suggest that the origin and evolution of life could have stabilized the large continental surface area of the Earth and its wet mantle, leading to the relatively low mantle viscosity we observe at present. Without photosynthetic life on our planet, the Earth would be geodynamical less active due to a dryer mantle, and would have a smaller fraction of continental coverage than observed today. References[1] Höning, D., Hansen-Goos, H., Airo, A., Spohn, T., 2014. Biotic vs. abiotic Earth: A model for mantle hydration and continental coverage. Planetary and Space Science 98, 5-13. [2] Kleidon, A., 2010. Life, hierarchy, and the

  5. iTree-Hydro: Snow hydrology update for the urban forest hydrology model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang Yang; Theodore A. Endreny; David J. Nowak

    2011-01-01

    This article presents snow hydrology updates made to iTree-Hydro, previously called the Urban Forest Effects—Hydrology model. iTree-Hydro Version 1 was a warm climate model developed by the USDA Forest Service to provide a process-based planning tool with robust water quantity and quality predictions given data limitations common to most urban areas. Cold climate...

  6. Validation of A Global Hydrological Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doell, P.; Lehner, B.; Kaspar, F.; Vassolo, S.

    Freshwater availability has been recognized as a global issue, and its consistent quan- tification not only in individual river basins but also at the global scale is required to support the sustainable use of water. The Global Hydrology Model WGHM, which is a submodel of the global water use and availability model WaterGAP 2, computes sur- face runoff, groundwater recharge and river discharge at a spatial resolution of 0.5. WGHM is based on the best global data sets currently available, including a newly developed drainage direction map and a data set of wetlands, lakes and reservoirs. It calculates both natural and actual discharge by simulating the reduction of river discharge by human water consumption (as computed by the water use submodel of WaterGAP 2). WGHM is calibrated against observed discharge at 724 gauging sta- tions (representing about 50% of the global land area) by adjusting a parameter of the soil water balance. It not only computes the long-term average water resources but also water availability indicators that take into account the interannual and seasonal variability of runoff and discharge. The reliability of the model results is assessed by comparing observed and simulated discharges at the calibration stations and at se- lected other stations. We conclude that reliable results can be obtained for basins of more than 20,000 km2. In particular, the 90% reliable monthly discharge is simu- lated well. However, there is the tendency that semi-arid and arid basins are modeled less satisfactorily than humid ones, which is partially due to neglecting river channel losses and evaporation of runoff from small ephemeral ponds in the model. Also, the hydrology of highly developed basins with large artificial storages, basin transfers and irrigation schemes cannot be simulated well. The seasonality of discharge in snow- dominated basins is overestimated by WGHM, and if the snow-dominated basin is uncalibrated, discharge is likely to be underestimated

  7. Terrestrial biosphere models underestimate photosynthetic capacity and CO2 assimilation in the Arctic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rogers, Alistair; Serbin, Shawn P; Ely, Kim S; Sloan, Victoria L; Wullschleger, Stan D

    2017-12-01

    Terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) are highly sensitive to model representation of photosynthesis, in particular the parameters maximum carboxylation rate and maximum electron transport rate at 25°C (V c,max.25 and J max.25 , respectively). Many TBMs do not include representation of Arctic plants, and those that do rely on understanding and parameterization from temperate species. We measured photosynthetic CO 2 response curves and leaf nitrogen (N) content in species representing the dominant vascular plant functional types found on the coastal tundra near Barrow, Alaska. The activation energies associated with the temperature response functions of V c,max and J max were 17% lower than commonly used values. When scaled to 25°C, V c,max.25 and J max.25 were two- to five-fold higher than the values used to parameterize current TBMs. This high photosynthetic capacity was attributable to a high leaf N content and the high fraction of N invested in Rubisco. Leaf-level modeling demonstrated that current parameterization of TBMs resulted in a two-fold underestimation of the capacity for leaf-level CO 2 assimilation in Arctic vegetation. This study highlights the poor representation of Arctic photosynthesis in TBMs, and provides the critical data necessary to improve our ability to project the response of the Arctic to global environmental change. No claim to original US Government works. New Phytologist © 2017 New Phytologist Trust.

  8. Assessing The Performance of Hydrological Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Knijff, Johan

    The performance of hydrological models is often characterized using the coefficient of efficiency, E. The sensitivity of E to extreme streamflow values, and the difficulty of deciding what value of E should be used as a threshold to identify 'good' models or model parameterizations, have proven to be serious shortcomings of this index. This paper reviews some alternative performance indices that have appeared in the litera- ture. Legates and McCabe (1999) suggested a more generalized form of E, E'(j,B). Here, j is a parameter that controls how much emphasis is put on extreme streamflow values, and B defines a benchmark or 'null hypothesis' against which the results of the model are tested. E'(j,B) was used to evaluate a large number of parameterizations of a conceptual rainfall-runoff model, using 6 different combinations of j and B. First, the effect of j and B is explained. Second, it is demonstrated how the index can be used to explicitly test hypotheses about the model and the data. This approach appears to be particularly attractive if the index is used as a likelihood measure within a GLUE-type analysis.

  9. Water Management in the Camargue Biosphere Reserve: Insights from Comparative Mental Models Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raphael Mathevet

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Mental models are the cognitive representations of the world that frame how people interact with the world. Learning implies changing these mental models. The successful management of complex social-ecological systems requires the coordination of actions to achieve shared goals. The coordination of actions requires a level of shared understanding of the system or situation; a shared or common mental model. We first describe the elicitation and analysis of mental models of different stakeholder groups associated with water management in the Camargue Biosphere Reserve in the Rhône River delta on the French Mediterranean coast. We use cultural consensus analysis to explore the degree to which different groups shared mental models of the whole system, of stakeholders, of resources, of processes, and of interactions among these last three. The analysis of the elicited data from this group structure enabled us to tentatively explore the evidence for learning in the nonstatute Water Board; comprising important stakeholders related to the management of the central Rhône delta. The results indicate that learning does occur and results in richer mental models that are more likely to be shared among group members. However, the results also show lower than expected levels of agreement with these consensual mental models. Based on this result, we argue that a careful process and facilitation design can greatly enhance the functioning of the participatory process in the Water Board. We conclude that this methodology holds promise for eliciting and comparing mental models. It enriches group-model building and participatory approaches with a broader view of social learning and knowledge-sharing issues.

  10. Updating of states in operational hydrological models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bruland, O.; Kolberg, S.; Engeland, K.; Gragne, A. S.; Liston, G.; Sand, K.; Tøfte, L.; Alfredsen, K.

    2012-04-01

    Operationally the main purpose of hydrological models is to provide runoff forecasts. The quality of the model state and the accuracy of the weather forecast together with the model quality define the runoff forecast quality. Input and model errors accumulate over time and may leave the model in a poor state. Usually model states can be related to observable conditions in the catchment. Updating of these states, knowing their relation to observable catchment conditions, influence directly the forecast quality. Norway is internationally in the forefront in hydropower scheduling both on short and long terms. The inflow forecasts are fundamental to this scheduling. Their quality directly influence the producers profit as they optimize hydropower production to market demand and at the same time minimize spill of water and maximize available hydraulic head. The quality of the inflow forecasts strongly depends on the quality of the models applied and the quality of the information they use. In this project the focus has been to improve the quality of the model states which the forecast is based upon. Runoff and snow storage are two observable quantities that reflect the model state and are used in this project for updating. Generally the methods used can be divided in three groups: The first re-estimates the forcing data in the updating period; the second alters the weights in the forecast ensemble; and the third directly changes the model states. The uncertainty related to the forcing data through the updating period is due to both uncertainty in the actual observation and to how well the gauging stations represent the catchment both in respect to temperatures and precipitation. The project looks at methodologies that automatically re-estimates the forcing data and tests the result against observed response. Model uncertainty is reflected in a joint distribution of model parameters estimated using the Dream algorithm.

  11. Controlled experiments of hillslope co-evolution at the Biosphere 2 Landscape Evolution Observatory: toward prediction of coupled hydrological, biogeochemical, and ecological change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Volkmann, T. H. M.; Sengupta, A.; Pangle, L.; Abramson, N.; Barron-Gafford, G.; Breshears, D. D.; Bugaj, A.; Chorover, J.; Dontsova, K.; Durcik, M.; Ferre, T. P. A.; Harman, C. J.; Hunt, E.; Huxman, T. E.; Kim, M.; Maier, R. M.; Matos, K.; Alves Meira Neto, A.; Meredith, L. K.; Monson, R. K.; Niu, G. Y.; Pelletier, J. D.; Rasmussen, C.; Ruiz, J.; Saleska, S. R.; Schaap, M. G.; Sibayan, M.; Tuller, M.; Van Haren, J. L. M.; Wang, Y.; Zeng, X.; Troch, P. A.

    2017-12-01

    Understanding the process interactions and feedbacks among water, microbes, plants, and porous geological media is crucial for improving predictions of the response of Earth's critical zone to future climatic conditions. However, the integrated co-evolution of landscapes under change is notoriously difficult to investigate. Laboratory studies are typically limited in spatial and temporal scale, while field studies lack observational density and control. To bridge the gap between controlled lab and uncontrolled field studies, the University of Arizona - Biosphere 2 built a macrocosm experiment of unprecedented scale: the Landscape Evolution Observatory (LEO). LEO consists of three replicated, 330-m2 hillslope landscapes inside a 5000-m2 environmentally controlled facility. The engineered landscapes contain 1-m depth of basaltic tephra ground to homogenous loamy sand that will undergo physical, chemical, and mineralogical changes over many years. Each landscape contains a dense sensor network capable of resolving water, carbon, and energy cycling processes at sub-meter to whole-landscape scale. Embedded sampling devices allow for quantification of biogeochemical processes, and facilitate the use of chemical tracers applied with the artificial rainfall. LEO is now fully operational and intensive forcing experiments have been launched. While operating the massive infrastructure poses significant challenges, LEO has demonstrated the capacity of tracking multi-scale matter and energy fluxes at a level of detail impossible in field experiments. Initial sensor, sampler, and restricted soil coring data are already providing insights into the tight linkages between water flow, weathering, and (micro-) biological community development during incipient landscape evolution. Over the years to come, these interacting processes are anticipated to drive the model systems to increasingly complex states, potentially perturbed by changes in climatic forcing. By intensively monitoring

  12. Assessment of Food Chain Pathway Parameters in Biosphere Models: Annual Progress Report for Fiscal Year 2004

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Napier, Bruce A.; Krupka, Kenneth M.; Fellows, Robert J.; Cataldo, Dominic A.; Valenta, Michelle M.; Gilmore, Tyler J.

    2004-12-02

    This Annual Progress Report describes the work performed and summarizes some of the key observations to date on the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s project Assessment of Food Chain Pathway Parameters in Biosphere Models, which was established to assess and evaluate a number of key parameters used in the food-chain models used in performance assessments of radioactive waste disposal facilities. Section 2 of this report describes activities undertaken to collect samples of soils from three regions of the United States, the Southeast, Northwest, and Southwest, and perform analyses to characterize their physical and chemical properties. Section 3 summarizes information gathered regarding agricultural practices and common and unusual crops grown in each of these three areas. Section 4 describes progress in studying radionuclide uptake in several representative crops from the three soil types in controlled laboratory conditions. Section 5 describes a range of international coordination activities undertaken by Project staff in order to support the underlying data needs of the Project. Section 6 provides a very brief summary of the status of the GENII Version 2 computer program, which is a “client” of the types of data being generated by the Project, and for which the Project will be providing training to the US NRC staff in the coming Fiscal Year. Several appendices provide additional supporting information.

  13. Modeling the hydrologic impacts of forest harvesting on Florida flatwoods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ge Sun; Hans Rierkerk; Nicholas B. Comerford

    1998-01-01

    The great temporal and spatial variability of pine flatwoods hydrology suggests traditional short-term field methods may not be effective in evaluating the hydrologic effects of forest management. The flatwoods model was developed, calibrated and validated specifically for the cypress wetland-pine upland landscape. The model was applied to two typical flatwoods sites...

  14. Hydrology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharp, John M.

    1977-01-01

    Lists many recent research projects in hydrology, including flow in fractured media, improvements in remote-sensing techniques, effects of urbanization on water resources, and developments in drainage basins. (MLH)

  15. Hydrology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Obando G, E.

    1989-01-01

    Isotopical techniques are used in hydrology area for exploration, evaluation and exploration of water investigation. These techniques have been used successfully and are often the best or only means for providing certain hydrogeological parameters

  16. Hydrological modelling of fine sediments in the Odzi River, Zimbabwe

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Hydrological modelling of fine sediments in the Odzi River, Zimbabwe. ... An analysis of the model structure and a comparison with the rating curve function ... model validation through split sample and proxy basin comparison was performed.

  17. Biosphere modelling for a deep radioactive waste repository: treatment of the groundwater-soil pathway

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baeyens, B.; Grogan, H.A.; Dorp, F. van

    1991-07-01

    The effect of radionuclide transfer from near-surface groundwater to the rooting zone soil, via a deep soil layer, is modelled in this report. The possible extent of upward solute movement is evaluated for a region in northern Switzerland. The concentration of 237 Np and 129 I in the deep and top soil, and hence growing crops, are evaluated assuming a constant unit activity concentration in the groundwater. A number of parameter variations are considered, namely variable soil sorption coefficients, reduced infiltration of rain water and decreased groundwater flow. A release to an alternative smaller recipient region in northern Switzerland is also evaluated. For the parameter ranges considered uncertainty in the solid-liquid distribution coefficient has the largest effect on overall uncertainty. These calculations have been presented within the international Biosphere Model Validation Study (BIOMOVS). A description of the test scenario, and the model calculations submitted, have been included in this report for completeness. To place the groundwater-soil-crop-man pathway in context, its contribution to the total dose to man is evaluated for the 237 Np- 233 U- 229 Th decay chain. The results obtained using the two-layer soil model, described in this report, are compared with the single-layer soil model used during Project Gewaehr 1985. The more realistic two-layer soil model indicated an increase in importance of the drinking water pathway. It should be noted, however, that not all the critical pathways have been treated in this study with the same degree of conservatism. (author) 16 figs., 15 tabs., 31 refs

  18. Using satellite data to improve the leaf phenology of a global terrestrial biosphere model

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacBean, N.; Maignan, F.; Peylin, P.; Bacour, C.; Bréon, F.-M.; Ciais, P.

    2015-12-01

    Correct representation of seasonal leaf dynamics is crucial for terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs), but many such models cannot accurately reproduce observations of leaf onset and senescence. Here we optimised the phenology-related parameters of the ORCHIDEE TBM using satellite-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index data (MODIS NDVI v5) that are linearly related to the model fAPAR. We found the misfit between the observations and the model decreased after optimisation for all boreal and temperate deciduous plant functional types, primarily due to an earlier onset of leaf senescence. The model bias was only partially reduced for tropical deciduous trees and no improvement was seen for natural C4 grasses. Spatial validation demonstrated the generality of the posterior parameters for use in global simulations, with an increase in global median correlation of 0.56 to 0.67. The simulated global mean annual gross primary productivity (GPP) decreased by ~ 10 PgC yr-1 over the 1990-2010 period due to the substantially shortened growing season length (GSL - by up to 30 days in the Northern Hemisphere), thus reducing the positive bias and improving the seasonal dynamics of ORCHIDEE compared to independent data-based estimates. Finally, the optimisations led to changes in the strength and location of the trends in the simulated vegetation productivity as represented by the GSL and mean annual fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (fAPAR), suggesting care should be taken when using un-calibrated models in attribution studies. We suggest that the framework presented here can be applied for improving the phenology of all global TBMs.

  19. An Educational Model for Hands-On Hydrology Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    AghaKouchak, A.; Nakhjiri, N.; Habib, E. H.

    2014-12-01

    This presentation provides an overview of a hands-on modeling tool developed for students in civil engineering and earth science disciplines to help them learn the fundamentals of hydrologic processes, model calibration, sensitivity analysis, uncertainty assessment, and practice conceptual thinking in solving engineering problems. The toolbox includes two simplified hydrologic models, namely HBV-EDU and HBV-Ensemble, designed as a complement to theoretical hydrology lectures. The models provide an interdisciplinary application-oriented learning environment that introduces the hydrologic phenomena through the use of a simplified conceptual hydrologic model. The toolbox can be used for in-class lab practices and homework assignments, and assessment of students' understanding of hydrological processes. Using this modeling toolbox, students can gain more insights into how hydrological processes (e.g., precipitation, snowmelt and snow accumulation, soil moisture, evapotranspiration and runoff generation) are interconnected. The educational toolbox includes a MATLAB Graphical User Interface (GUI) and an ensemble simulation scheme that can be used for teaching more advanced topics including uncertainty analysis, and ensemble simulation. Both models have been administered in a class for both in-class instruction and a final project, and students submitted their feedback about the toolbox. The results indicate that this educational software had a positive impact on students understanding and knowledge of hydrology.

  20. Hydrological system dynamics of glaciated Karnali River Basin Nepal Himalaya using J2000 Hydrological model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khatiwada, K. R.; Nepal, S.; Panthi, J., Sr.; Shrestha, M.

    2015-12-01

    Hydrological modelling plays an important role in understanding hydrological processes of a catchment. In the context of climate change, the understanding of hydrological characteristic of the catchment is very vital to understand how the climate change will affect the hydrological regime. This research facilitates in better understanding of the hydrological system dynamics of a himalayan mountainous catchment in western Nepal. The Karnali River, longest river flowing inside Nepal, is one of the three major basins of Nepal, having the area of 45269 sq. km. is unique. The basin has steep topography and high mountains to the northern side. The 40% of the basin is dominated by forest land while other land cover are: grass land, bare rocky land etc. About 2% of the areas in basin is covered by permanent glacier apart from that about 12% of basin has the snow and ice cover. There are 34 meteorological stations distributed across the basin. A process oriented distributed J2000 hydrologial model has been applied to understand the hydrological system dynamics. The model application provides distributed output of various hydrological components. The J2000 model applies Hydrological Response Unit (HRU) as a modelling entity. With 6861 HRU and 1010 reaches, the model was calibrated (1981-1999) and validated (2000-2004) at a daily scale using split-sample test. The model is able to capture the overall hydrological dynamics well. The rising limbs and recession limbs are simulated equally and with satisfactory ground water conditions. Based on the graphical and statistical evaluation of the model performance the model is able to simulate hydrological processes fairly well. Calibration shows that Nash Sutcliffe efficiency is 0.91, coefficient of determination is 0.92 Initial observation shows that during the pre-monsoon season(March to May) the glacial runoff is 25% of the total discharge while in the monsoon(June to September) season it is only 13%. The surface runoff

  1. The biosphere: current status

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thorne, M.C.

    1988-06-01

    This paper outlines the biosphere models and data required to assess the post-closure radiological impact of deep geological repositories for low and intermediate level radioactive wastes. It then goes on to show how these requirements are being met either within the Nirex Safety Assessment Research Programme or from other research programmes. (Author)

  2. Hydrology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brutsaert, Wilfried

    2005-08-01

    Water in its different forms has always been a source of wonder, curiosity and practical concern for humans everywhere. Hydrology - An Introduction presents a coherent introduction to the fundamental principles of hydrology, based on the course that Wilfried Brutsaert has taught at Cornell University for the last thirty years. Hydrologic phenomena are dealt with at spatial and temporal scales at which they occur in nature. The physics and mathematics necessary to describe these phenomena are introduced and developed, and readers will require a working knowledge of calculus and basic fluid mechanics. The book will be invaluable as a textbook for entry-level courses in hydrology directed at advanced seniors and graduate students in physical science and engineering. In addition, the book will be more broadly of interest to professional scientists and engineers in hydrology, environmental science, meteorology, agronomy, geology, climatology, oceanology, glaciology and other earth sciences. Emphasis on fundamentals Clarification of the underlying physical processes Applications of fluid mechanics in the natural environment

  3. Implications of environmental change for biosphere modelling: work for UK Nirex Ltd

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thorne, M.C.

    1990-01-01

    Over the timescales of interest in deep geological disposal of radioactive wastes, climate is expected to change radically, with glacial/interglacial cycling anticipated. Climatic conditions and climate change have a influence on the characteristics of the biosphere into which the radionuclides emerge and on the doses to man which may occur. The various factors involved have been taken into account in assessment studies undertaken by the Nirex Disposal Safety Assessment Team. Results from these studies illustrate the major importance of dispersion processes in the biosphere in determining individual radiation doses, and the importance of using self-consistent patterns of human behaviour appropriate to the environment under consideration. 5 refs., 1 tab

  4. Pursuing the method of multiple working hypotheses for hydrological modeling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Clark, M.P.; Kavetski, D.; Fenicia, F.

    2011-01-01

    Ambiguities in the representation of environmental processes have manifested themselves in a plethora of hydrological models, differing in almost every aspect of their conceptualization and implementation. The current overabundance of models is symptomatic of an insufficient scientific understanding

  5. Integrate Data into Scientific Workflows for Terrestrial Biosphere Model Evaluation through Brokers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, Y.; Cook, R. B.; Du, F.; Dasgupta, A.; Poco, J.; Huntzinger, D. N.; Schwalm, C. R.; Boldrini, E.; Santoro, M.; Pearlman, J.; Pearlman, F.; Nativi, S.; Khalsa, S.

    2013-12-01

    Terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) have become integral tools for extrapolating local observations and process-level understanding of land-atmosphere carbon exchange to larger regions. Model-model and model-observation intercomparisons are critical to understand the uncertainties within model outputs, to improve model skill, and to improve our understanding of land-atmosphere carbon exchange. The DataONE Exploration, Visualization, and Analysis (EVA) working group is evaluating TBMs using scientific workflows in UV-CDAT/VisTrails. This workflow-based approach promotes collaboration and improved tracking of evaluation provenance. But challenges still remain. The multi-scale and multi-discipline nature of TBMs makes it necessary to include diverse and distributed data resources in model evaluation. These include, among others, remote sensing data from NASA, flux tower observations from various organizations including DOE, and inventory data from US Forest Service. A key challenge is to make heterogeneous data from different organizations and disciplines discoverable and readily integrated for use in scientific workflows. This presentation introduces the brokering approach taken by the DataONE EVA to fill the gap between TBMs' evaluation scientific workflows and cross-organization and cross-discipline data resources. The DataONE EVA started the development of an Integrated Model Intercomparison Framework (IMIF) that leverages standards-based discovery and access brokers to dynamically discover, access, and transform (e.g. subset and resampling) diverse data products from DataONE, Earth System Grid (ESG), and other data repositories into a format that can be readily used by scientific workflows in UV-CDAT/VisTrails. The discovery and access brokers serve as an independent middleware that bridge existing data repositories and TBMs evaluation scientific workflows but introduce little overhead to either component. In the initial work, an OpenSearch-based discovery broker

  6. Moving towards Hyper-Resolution Hydrologic Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rouf, T.; Maggioni, V.; Houser, P.; Mei, Y.

    2017-12-01

    Developing a predictive capability for terrestrial hydrology across landscapes, with water, energy and nutrients as the drivers of these dynamic systems, faces the challenge of scaling meter-scale process understanding to practical modeling scales. Hyper-resolution land surface modeling can provide a framework for addressing science questions that we are not able to answer with coarse modeling scales. In this study, we develop a hyper-resolution forcing dataset from coarser resolution products using a physically based downscaling approach. These downscaling techniques rely on correlations with landscape variables, such as topography, roughness, and land cover. A proof-of-concept has been implemented over the Oklahoma domain, where high-resolution observations are available for validation purposes. Hourly NLDAS (North America Land Data Assimilation System) forcing data (i.e., near-surface air temperature, pressure, and humidity) have been downscaled to 500m resolution over the study area for 2015-present. Results show that correlation coefficients between the downscaled temperature dataset and ground observations are consistently higher than the ones between the NLDAS temperature data at their native resolution and ground observations. Not only correlation coefficients are higher, but also the deviation around the 1:1 line in the density scatterplots is smaller for the downscaled dataset than the original one with respect to the ground observations. Results are therefore encouraging as they demonstrate that the 500m temperature dataset has a good agreement with the ground information and can be adopted to force the land surface model for soil moisture estimation. The study has been expanded to wind speed and direction, incident longwave and shortwave radiation, pressure, and precipitation. Precipitation is well known to vary dramatically with elevation and orography. Therefore, we are pursuing a downscaling technique based on both topographical and vegetation

  7. Applicability of Hydrologic Landscapes for Model Calibration ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Pacific Northwest Hydrologic Landscapes (PNW HL) at the assessment unit scale has provided a solid conceptual classification framework to relate and transfer hydrologically meaningful information between watersheds without access to streamflow time series. A collection of techniques were applied to the HL assessment unit composition in watersheds across the Pacific Northwest to aggregate the hydrologic behavior of the Hydrologic Landscapes from the assessment unit scale to the watershed scale. This non-trivial solution both emphasizes HL classifications within the watershed that provide that majority of moisture surplus/deficit and considers the relative position (upstream vs. downstream) of these HL classifications. A clustering algorithm was applied to the HL-based characterization of assessment units within 185 watersheds to help organize watersheds into nine classes hypothesized to have similar hydrologic behavior. The HL-based classes were used to organize and describe hydrologic behavior information about watershed classes and both predictions and validations were independently performed with regard to the general magnitude of six hydroclimatic signature values. A second cluster analysis was then performed using the independently calculated signature values as similarity metrics, and it was found that the six signature clusters showed substantial overlap in watershed class membership to those in the HL-based classes. One hypothesis set forward from thi

  8. Modeling the biophysical impacts of global change in mountain biosphere reserves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bugmann, H.K.M.; Bjornsen, F. Ewert; Haeberli, W.; Guisan, Antoine; Fagre, Daniel B.; Kaab, A.

    2007-01-01

    Mountains and mountain societies provide a wide range of goods and services to humanity, but they are particularly sensitive to the effects of global environmental change. Thus, the definition of appropriate management regimes that maintain the multiple functions of mountain regions in a time of greatly changing climatic, economic, and societal drivers constitutes a significant challenge. Management decisions must be based on a sound understanding of the future dynamics of these systems. The present article reviews the elements required for an integrated effort to project the impacts of global change on mountain regions, and recommends tools that can be used at 3 scientific levels (essential, improved, and optimum). The proposed strategy is evaluated with respect to UNESCO's network of Mountain Biosphere Reserves (MBRs), with the intention of implementing it in other mountain regions as well. First, methods for generating scenarios of key drivers of global change are reviewed, including land use/land cover and climate change. This is followed by a brief review of the models available for projecting the impacts of these scenarios on (1) cryospheric systems, (2) ecosystem structure and diversity, and (3) ecosystem functions such as carbon and water relations. Finally, the cross-cutting role of remote sensing techniques is evaluated with respect to both monitoring and modeling efforts. We conclude that a broad range of techniques is available for both scenario generation and impact assessments, many of which can be implemented without much capacity building across many or even most MBRs. However, to foster implementation of the proposed strategy, further efforts are required to establish partnerships between scientists and resource managers in mountain areas.

  9. Testing the Structure of Hydrological Models using Genetic Programming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Selle, B.; Muttil, N.

    2009-04-01

    Genetic Programming is able to systematically explore many alternative model structures of different complexity from available input and response data. We hypothesised that genetic programming can be used to test the structure hydrological models and to identify dominant processes in hydrological systems. To test this, genetic programming was used to analyse a data set from a lysimeter experiment in southeastern Australia. The lysimeter experiment was conducted to quantify the deep percolation response under surface irrigated pasture to different soil types, water table depths and water ponding times during surface irrigation. Using genetic programming, a simple model of deep percolation was consistently evolved in multiple model runs. This simple and interpretable model confirmed the dominant process contributing to deep percolation represented in a conceptual model that was published earlier. Thus, this study shows that genetic programming can be used to evaluate the structure of hydrological models and to gain insight about the dominant processes in hydrological systems.

  10. Advances in understanding, models and parameterisations of biosphere-atmosphere ammonia exchange

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flechard, C. R.; Massad, R.-S.; Loubet, B.; Personne, E.; Simpson, D.; Bash, J. O.; Cooter, E. J.; Nemitz, E.; Sutton, M. A.

    2013-03-01

    Atmospheric ammonia (NH3) dominates global emissions of total reactive nitrogen (Nr), while emissions from agricultural production systems contribute about two thirds of global NH3 emissions; the remaining third emanates from oceans, natural vegetation, humans, wild animals and biomass burning. On land, NH3 emitted from the various sources eventually returns to the biosphere by dry deposition to sink areas, predominantly semi-natural vegetation, and by wet and dry deposition as ammonium (NH4+) to all surfaces. However, the land/atmosphere exchange of gaseous NH3 is in fact bi-directional over unfertilized as well as fertilized ecosystems, with periods and areas of emission and deposition alternating in time (diurnal, seasonal) and space (patchwork landscapes). The exchange is controlled by a range of environmental factors, including meteorology, surface layer turbulence, thermodynamics, air and surface heterogeneous-phase chemistry, canopy geometry, plant development stage, leaf age, organic matter decomposition, soil microbial turnover, and, in agricultural systems, by fertilizer application rate, fertilizer type, soil type, crop type, and agricultural management practices. We review the range of processes controlling NH3 emission and uptake in the different parts of the soil-canopy-atmosphere continuum, with NH3 emission potentials defined at the substrate and leaf levels by different [NH4+] / [H+] ratios (Γ). Surface/atmosphere exchange models for NH3 are necessary to compute the temporal and spatial patterns of emissions and deposition at the soil, plant, field, landscape, regional and global scales, in order to assess the multiple environmental impacts of air-borne and deposited NH3 and NH4+. Models of soil/vegetation/atmosphereem NH3 exchange are reviewed from the substrate and leaf scales to the global scale. They range from simple steady-state, "big leaf" canopy resistance models, to dynamic, multi-layer, multi-process, multi

  11. Advances in understanding, models and parameterizations of biosphere-atmosphere ammonia exchange

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flechard, C. R.; Massad, R.-S.; Loubet, B.; Personne, E.; Simpson, D.; Bash, J. O.; Cooter, E. J.; Nemitz, E.; Sutton, M. A.

    2013-07-01

    Atmospheric ammonia (NH3) dominates global emissions of total reactive nitrogen (Nr), while emissions from agricultural production systems contribute about two-thirds of global NH3 emissions; the remaining third emanates from oceans, natural vegetation, humans, wild animals and biomass burning. On land, NH3 emitted from the various sources eventually returns to the biosphere by dry deposition to sink areas, predominantly semi-natural vegetation, and by wet and dry deposition as ammonium (NH4+) to all surfaces. However, the land/atmosphere exchange of gaseous NH3 is in fact bi-directional over unfertilized as well as fertilized ecosystems, with periods and areas of emission and deposition alternating in time (diurnal, seasonal) and space (patchwork landscapes). The exchange is controlled by a range of environmental factors, including meteorology, surface layer turbulence, thermodynamics, air and surface heterogeneous-phase chemistry, canopy geometry, plant development stage, leaf age, organic matter decomposition, soil microbial turnover, and, in agricultural systems, by fertilizer application rate, fertilizer type, soil type, crop type, and agricultural management practices. We review the range of processes controlling NH3 emission and uptake in the different parts of the soil-canopy-atmosphere continuum, with NH3 emission potentials defined at the substrate and leaf levels by different [NH4+] / [H+] ratios (Γ). Surface/atmosphere exchange models for NH3 are necessary to compute the temporal and spatial patterns of emissions and deposition at the soil, plant, field, landscape, regional and global scales, in order to assess the multiple environmental impacts of airborne and deposited NH3 and NH4+. Models of soil/vegetation/atmosphere NH3 exchange are reviewed from the substrate and leaf scales to the global scale. They range from simple steady-state, "big leaf" canopy resistance models, to dynamic, multi-layer, multi-process, multi-chemical species schemes

  12. Advances in understanding, models and parameterizations of biosphere-atmosphere ammonia exchange

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. R. Flechard

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Atmospheric ammonia (NH3 dominates global emissions of total reactive nitrogen (Nr, while emissions from agricultural production systems contribute about two-thirds of global NH3 emissions; the remaining third emanates from oceans, natural vegetation, humans, wild animals and biomass burning. On land, NH3 emitted from the various sources eventually returns to the biosphere by dry deposition to sink areas, predominantly semi-natural vegetation, and by wet and dry deposition as ammonium (NH4+ to all surfaces. However, the land/atmosphere exchange of gaseous NH3 is in fact bi-directional over unfertilized as well as fertilized ecosystems, with periods and areas of emission and deposition alternating in time (diurnal, seasonal and space (patchwork landscapes. The exchange is controlled by a range of environmental factors, including meteorology, surface layer turbulence, thermodynamics, air and surface heterogeneous-phase chemistry, canopy geometry, plant development stage, leaf age, organic matter decomposition, soil microbial turnover, and, in agricultural systems, by fertilizer application rate, fertilizer type, soil type, crop type, and agricultural management practices. We review the range of processes controlling NH3 emission and uptake in the different parts of the soil-canopy-atmosphere continuum, with NH3 emission potentials defined at the substrate and leaf levels by different [NH4+] / [H+] ratios (Γ. Surface/atmosphere exchange models for NH3 are necessary to compute the temporal and spatial patterns of emissions and deposition at the soil, plant, field, landscape, regional and global scales, in order to assess the multiple environmental impacts of airborne and deposited NH3 and NH4+. Models of soil/vegetation/atmosphere NH3 exchange are reviewed from the substrate and leaf scales to the global scale. They range from simple steady-state, "big leaf" canopy resistance models, to dynamic, multi-layer, multi-process, multi

  13. Hydrologi

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Burcharth, Hans F.

    Hydro1ogi er den videnskab, der omhand1er jordens vand, dets forekomst, cirku1ation og forde1ing, dets kemiske og fysiske egenskaber samt indvirkning på omgivelserne, herunder dets relation ti1 alt liv på jorden. Således lyder en b1andt mange definitioner på begrebet hydrologi, og som man kan se...

  14. Seasonal Gravity Field Variations from GRACE and Hydrological Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Ole Baltazar; Hinderer, Jacques; Lemoine, Frank G.

    2004-01-01

    . Four global hydrological models covering the same period in 2002–2003 as the GRACE observations were investigated to for their mutual consistency in estimates of annual variation in terrestrial water storage and related temporal changes in gravity field. The hydrological models differ by a maximum of 2...... µGal or nearly 5 cm equivalent water storage in selected regions. Integrated over all land masses the standard deviation among the annual signal from the four hydrological models are 0.6 µGal equivalent to around 1.4 cm in equivalent water layer thickness. The estimated accuracy of the annual...

  15. Testing the structure of a hydrological model using Genetic Programming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Selle, Benny; Muttil, Nitin

    2011-01-01

    SummaryGenetic Programming is able to systematically explore many alternative model structures of different complexity from available input and response data. We hypothesised that Genetic Programming can be used to test the structure of hydrological models and to identify dominant processes in hydrological systems. To test this, Genetic Programming was used to analyse a data set from a lysimeter experiment in southeastern Australia. The lysimeter experiment was conducted to quantify the deep percolation response under surface irrigated pasture to different soil types, watertable depths and water ponding times during surface irrigation. Using Genetic Programming, a simple model of deep percolation was recurrently evolved in multiple Genetic Programming runs. This simple and interpretable model supported the dominant process contributing to deep percolation represented in a conceptual model that was published earlier. Thus, this study shows that Genetic Programming can be used to evaluate the structure of hydrological models and to gain insight about the dominant processes in hydrological systems.

  16. Revisiting an interdisciplinary hydrological modelling project. A socio-hydrology (?) example from the early 2000s

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seidl, Roman; Barthel, Roland

    2016-04-01

    Interdisciplinary scientific and societal knowledge plays an increasingly important role in global change research. Also, in the field of water resources interdisciplinarity as well as cooperation with stakeholders from outside academia have been recognized as important. In this contribution, we revisit an integrated regional modelling system (DANUBIA), which was developed by an interdisciplinary team of researchers and relied on stakeholder participation in the framework of the GLOWA-Danube project from 2001 to 2011 (Mauser and Prasch 2016). As the model was developed before the current increase in literature on participatory modelling and interdisciplinarity, we ask how a socio-hydrology approach would have helped and in what way it would have made the work different. The present contribution firstly presents the interdisciplinary concept of DANUBIA, mainly with focus on the integration of human behaviour in a spatially explicit, process-based numerical modelling system (Roland Barthel, Janisch, Schwarz, Trifkovic, Nickel, Schulz, and Mauser 2008; R. Barthel, Nickel, Meleg, Trifkovic, and Braun 2005). Secondly, we compare the approaches to interdisciplinarity in GLOWA-Danube with concepts and ideas presented by socio-hydrology. Thirdly, we frame DANUBIA and a review of key literature on socio-hydrology in the context of a survey among hydrologists (N = 184). This discussion is used to highlight gaps and opportunities of the socio-hydrology approach. We show that the interdisciplinary aspect of the project and the participatory process of stakeholder integration in DANUBIA were not entirely successful. However, important insights were gained and important lessons were learnt. Against the background of these experiences we feel that in its current state, socio-hydrology is still lacking a plan for knowledge integration. Moreover, we consider necessary that socio-hydrology takes into account the lessons learnt from these earlier examples of knowledge integration

  17. Hydrological Modeling of the Jiaoyi Watershed (China) Using HSPF Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, Chang-An; Zhang, Wanchang; Zhang, Zhijie

    2014-01-01

    A watershed hydrological model, hydrological simulation program-Fortran (HSPF), was applied to simulate the spatial and temporal variation of hydrological processes in the Jiaoyi watershed of Huaihe River Basin, the heaviest shortage of water resources and polluted area in China. The model was calibrated using the years 2001–2004 and validated with data from 2005 to 2006. Calibration and validation results showed that the model generally simulated mean monthly and daily runoff precisely due to the close matching hydrographs between simulated and observed runoff, as well as the excellent evaluation indicators such as Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), coefficient of correlation (R 2), and the relative error (RE). The similar simulation results between calibration and validation period showed that all the calibrated parameters had a certain representation in Jiaoyi watershed. Additionally, the simulation in rainy months was more accurate than the drought months. Another result in this paper was that HSPF was also capable of estimating the water balance components reasonably and realistically in space through the whole watershed. The calibrated model can be used to explore the effects of climate change scenarios and various watershed management practices on the water resources and water environment in the basin. PMID:25013863

  18. Response of Water Use Efficiency to Global Environmental Change Based on Output From Terrestrial Biosphere Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhou, Sha [Tsinghua Univ., Beijing (China); Yu, Bofu [Griffith Univ., Nathan Queensland (Australia); Schwalm, Christopher R. [Woods Hole Research Center, Falmouth, MA (United States); Northern Arizona Univ., Flagstaff, AZ (United States); Ciais, Philippe [Lab. des Sciences du Climat et de l' Environnement, Gif-sur-Yvette (France); Zhang, Yao [Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK (United States); Fisher, Joshua B. [California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA (United States); Michalak, Anna M. [Carnegie Institution for Science, Stanford, CA (United States); Wang, Weile [California State Uni., Monterey Bay, Seasid, CA (United States); Poulter, Benjamin [Montana State Univ., Bozeman, MT (United States); Huntzinger, Deborah N. [Northern Arizona Univ., Flagstaff, AZ (United States); Niu, Shuli [Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Beijing (China); Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Beijing (China); Mao, Jiafu [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Jain, Atul [Univ. of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, IL (United States); Ricciuto, Daniel M. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Shi, Xiaoying [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Ito, Akihiko [Tohoku Univ., Sendai (Japan); Wei, Yaxing [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Huang, Yuefei [Tsinghua Univ., Beijing (China); Qinghai Univ., Xining (China); Wang, Guangqian [Tsinghua Univ., Beijing (China)

    2017-10-18

    Here, water use efficiency (WUE), defined as the ratio of gross primary productivity and evapotranspiration at the ecosystem scale, is a critical variable linking the carbon and water cycles. Incorporating a dependency on vapor pressure deficit, apparent underlying WUE (uWUE) provides a better indicator of how terrestrial ecosystems respond to environmental changes than other WUE formulations. Here we used 20th century simulations from four terrestrial biosphere models to develop a novel variance decomposition method. With this method, we attributed variations in apparent uWUE to both the trend and interannual variation of environmental drivers. The secular increase in atmospheric CO2 explained a clear majority of total variation (66 ± 32%: mean ± one standard deviation), followed by positive trends in nitrogen deposition and climate, as well as a negative trend in land use change. In contrast, interannual variation was mostly driven by interannual climate variability. To analyze the mechanism of the CO2 effect, we partitioned the apparent uWUE into the transpiration ratio (transpiration over evapotranspiration) and potential uWUE. The relative increase in potential uWUE parallels that of CO2, but this direct CO2 effect was offset by 20 ± 4% by changes in ecosystem structure, that is, leaf area index for different vegetation types. However, the decrease in transpiration due to stomatal closure with rising CO2 was reduced by 84% by an increase in leaf area index, resulting in small changes in the transpiration ratio. CO2 concentration thus plays a dominant role in driving apparent uWUE variations over time, but its role differs for the two constituent components: potential uWUE and transpiration.

  19. Response of Water Use Efficiency to Global Environmental Change Based on Output From Terrestrial Biosphere Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Sha; Yu, Bofu; Schwalm, Christopher R.; Ciais, Philippe; Zhang, Yao; Fisher, Joshua B.; Michalak, Anna M.; Wang, Weile; Poulter, Benjamin; Huntzinger, Deborah N.; Niu, Shuli; Mao, Jiafu; Jain, Atul; Ricciuto, Daniel M.; Shi, Xiaoying; Ito, Akihiko; Wei, Yaxing; Huang, Yuefei; Wang, Guangqian

    2017-11-01

    Water use efficiency (WUE), defined as the ratio of gross primary productivity and evapotranspiration at the ecosystem scale, is a critical variable linking the carbon and water cycles. Incorporating a dependency on vapor pressure deficit, apparent underlying WUE (uWUE) provides a better indicator of how terrestrial ecosystems respond to environmental changes than other WUE formulations. Here we used 20th century simulations from four terrestrial biosphere models to develop a novel variance decomposition method. With this method, we attributed variations in apparent uWUE to both the trend and interannual variation of environmental drivers. The secular increase in atmospheric CO2 explained a clear majority of total variation (66 ± 32%: mean ± one standard deviation), followed by positive trends in nitrogen deposition and climate, as well as a negative trend in land use change. In contrast, interannual variation was mostly driven by interannual climate variability. To analyze the mechanism of the CO2 effect, we partitioned the apparent uWUE into the transpiration ratio (transpiration over evapotranspiration) and potential uWUE. The relative increase in potential uWUE parallels that of CO2, but this direct CO2 effect was offset by 20 ± 4% by changes in ecosystem structure, that is, leaf area index for different vegetation types. However, the decrease in transpiration due to stomatal closure with rising CO2 was reduced by 84% by an increase in leaf area index, resulting in small changes in the transpiration ratio. CO2 concentration thus plays a dominant role in driving apparent uWUE variations over time, but its role differs for the two constituent components: potential uWUE and transpiration.

  20. Macroscale hydrologic modeling of ecologically relevant flow metrics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wenger, Seth J.; Luce, Charles H.; Hamlet, Alan F.; Isaak, Daniel J.; Neville, Helen M.

    2010-09-01

    Stream hydrology strongly affects the structure of aquatic communities. Changes to air temperature and precipitation driven by increased greenhouse gas concentrations are shifting timing and volume of streamflows potentially affecting these communities. The variable infiltration capacity (VIC) macroscale hydrologic model has been employed at regional scales to describe and forecast hydrologic changes but has been calibrated and applied mainly to large rivers. An important question is how well VIC runoff simulations serve to answer questions about hydrologic changes in smaller streams, which are important habitat for many fish species. To answer this question, we aggregated gridded VIC outputs within the drainage basins of 55 streamflow gages in the Pacific Northwest United States and compared modeled hydrographs and summary metrics to observations. For most streams, several ecologically relevant aspects of the hydrologic regime were accurately modeled, including center of flow timing, mean annual and summer flows and frequency of winter floods. Frequencies of high and low flows in the summer were not well predicted, however. Predictions were worse for sites with strong groundwater influence, and some sites showed errors that may result from limitations in the forcing climate data. Higher resolution (1/16th degree) modeling provided small improvements over lower resolution (1/8th degree). Despite some limitations, the VIC model appears capable of representing several ecologically relevant hydrologic characteristics in streams, making it a useful tool for understanding the effects of hydrology in delimiting species distributions and predicting the potential effects of climate shifts on aquatic organisms.

  1. Tensit - a novel probabilistic simulation tool for safety assessments. Tests and verifications using biosphere models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jones, Jakob; Vahlund, Fredrik; Kautsky, Ulrik

    2004-06-01

    This report documents the verification of a new simulation tool for dose assessment put together in a package under the name Tensit (Technical Nuclide Simulation Tool). The tool is developed to solve differential equation systems describing transport and decay of radionuclides. It is capable of handling both deterministic and probabilistic simulations. The verifications undertaken shows good results. Exceptions exist only where the reference results are unclear. Tensit utilise and connects two separate commercial softwares. The equation solving capability is derived from the Matlab/Simulink software environment to which Tensit adds a library of interconnectable building blocks. Probabilistic simulations are provided through a statistical software named at{sub R}isk that communicates with Matlab/Simulink. More information about these softwares can be found at www.palisade.com and www.mathworks.com. The underlying intention of developing this new tool has been to make available a cost efficient and easy to use means for advanced dose assessment simulations. The mentioned benefits are gained both through the graphical user interface provided by Simulink and at{sub R}isk, and the use of numerical equation solving routines in Matlab. To verify Tensit's numerical correctness, an implementation was done of the biosphere modules for dose assessments used in the earlier safety assessment project SR 97. Acquired probabilistic results for deterministic as well as probabilistic simulations have been compared with documented values. Additional verification has been made both with another simulation tool named AMBER and also against the international test case from PSACOIN named Level 1B. This report documents the models used for verification with equations and parameter values so that the results can be recreated. For a background and a more detailed description of the underlying processes in the models, the reader is referred to the original references. Finally, in the

  2. Tensit - a novel probabilistic simulation tool for safety assessments. Tests and verifications using biosphere models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jones, Jakob; Vahlund, Fredrik; Kautsky, Ulrik

    2004-06-01

    This report documents the verification of a new simulation tool for dose assessment put together in a package under the name Tensit (Technical Nuclide Simulation Tool). The tool is developed to solve differential equation systems describing transport and decay of radionuclides. It is capable of handling both deterministic and probabilistic simulations. The verifications undertaken shows good results. Exceptions exist only where the reference results are unclear. Tensit utilise and connects two separate commercial softwares. The equation solving capability is derived from the Matlab/Simulink software environment to which Tensit adds a library of interconnectable building blocks. Probabilistic simulations are provided through a statistical software named at R isk that communicates with Matlab/Simulink. More information about these softwares can be found at www.palisade.com and www.mathworks.com. The underlying intention of developing this new tool has been to make available a cost efficient and easy to use means for advanced dose assessment simulations. The mentioned benefits are gained both through the graphical user interface provided by Simulink and at R isk, and the use of numerical equation solving routines in Matlab. To verify Tensit's numerical correctness, an implementation was done of the biosphere modules for dose assessments used in the earlier safety assessment project SR 97. Acquired probabilistic results for deterministic as well as probabilistic simulations have been compared with documented values. Additional verification has been made both with another simulation tool named AMBER and also against the international test case from PSACOIN named Level 1B. This report documents the models used for verification with equations and parameter values so that the results can be recreated. For a background and a more detailed description of the underlying processes in the models, the reader is referred to the original references. Finally, in the perspective of

  3. Hydrological Process Simulation of Inland River Watershed: A Case Study of the Heihe River Basin with Multiple Hydrological Models

    OpenAIRE

    Lili Wang; Zhonggen Wang; Jingjie Yu; Yichi Zhang; Suzhen Dang

    2018-01-01

    Simulating the hydrological processes of an inland river basin can help provide the scientific guidance to the policies of water allocation among different subbasins and water resource management groups within the subbasins. However, it is difficult to simulate the hydrological processes of an inland river basin with hydrological models due to the non-consistent hydrological characteristics of the entire basin. This study presents a solution to this problem with a case study about the hydrolo...

  4. Modeling the impact of climate change in Germany with biosphere models for long-term safety assessment of nuclear waste repositories.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Staudt, C; Semiochkina, N; Kaiser, J C; Pröhl, G

    2013-01-01

    Biosphere models are used to evaluate the exposure of populations to radionuclides from a deep geological repository. Since the time frame for assessments of long-time disposal safety is 1 million years, potential future climate changes need to be accounted for. Potential future climate conditions were defined for northern Germany according to model results from the BIOCLIM project. Nine present day reference climate regions were defined to cover those future climate conditions. A biosphere model was developed according to the BIOMASS methodology of the IAEA and model parameters were adjusted to the conditions at the reference climate regions. The model includes exposure pathways common to those reference climate regions in a stylized biosphere and relevant to the exposure of a hypothetical self-sustaining population at the site of potential radionuclide contamination from a deep geological repository. The end points of the model are Biosphere Dose Conversion factors (BDCF) for a range of radionuclides and scenarios normalized for a constant radionuclide concentration in near-surface groundwater. Model results suggest an increased exposure of in dry climate regions with a high impact of drinking water consumption rates and the amount of irrigation water used for agriculture. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Publishing and sharing of hydrologic models through WaterHUB

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merwade, V.; Ruddell, B. L.; Song, C.; Zhao, L.; Kim, J.; Assi, A.

    2011-12-01

    Most hydrologists use hydrologic models to simulate the hydrologic processes to understand hydrologic pathways and fluxes for research, decision making and engineering design. Once these tasks are complete including publication of results, the models generally are not published or made available to the public for further use and improvement. Although publication or sharing of models is not required for journal publications, sharing of models may open doors for new collaborations, and avoids duplication of efforts if other researchers are interested in simulating a particular watershed for which a model already exists. For researchers, who are interested in sharing models, there are limited avenues to publishing their models to the wider community. Towards filling this gap, a prototype cyberinfrastructure (CI), called WaterHUB, is developed for sharing hydrologic data and modeling tools in an interactive environment. To test the utility of WaterHUB for sharing hydrologic models, a system to publish and share SWAT (Soil Water Assessment Tool) is developed. Users can utilize WaterHUB to search and download existing SWAT models, and also upload new SWAT models. Metadata such as the name of the watershed, name of the person or agency who developed the model, simulation period, time step, and list of calibrated parameters also published with individual model.

  6. Biosphere assessment for high-level radioactive waste disposal: modelling experiences and discussion on key parameters by sensitivity analysis in JNC

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kato, Tomoko; Makino, Hitoshi; Uchida, Masahiro; Suzuki, Yuji

    2004-01-01

    In the safety assessment of the deep geological disposal system of the high-level radioactive waste (HLW), biosphere assessment is often necessary to estimate future radiological impacts on human beings (e.g. radiation dose). In order to estimate the dose, the surface environment (biosphere) into which future releases of radionuclides might occur and the associated future human behaviour needs to be considered. However, for a deep repository, such releases might not occur for many thousands of years after disposal. Over such timescales, it is impossible to predict with any certainty how the biosphere and human behaviour will evolve. To avoid endless speculation aimed at reducing such uncertainty, the 'Reference Biospheres' concept has been developed for use in the safety assessment of HLW disposal. As the aim of the safety assessment with a hypothetical HLW disposal system by JNC was to demonstrate the technical feasibility and reliability of the Japanese disposal concept for a range of geological and surface environments, some biosphere models were developed using the 'Reference Biospheres' concept and the BIOMASS Methodology. These models have been used to derive factors to convert the radionuclide flux from a geosphere to a biosphere into a dose (flux to dose conversion factors). Moreover, sensitivity analysis for parameters in the biosphere models was performed to evaluate and understand the relative importance of parameters. It was concluded that transport parameters in the surface environments, annual amount of food consumption, distribution coefficients on soils and sediments, transfer coefficients of radionuclides to animal products and concentration ratios for marine organisms would have larger influence on the flux to dose conversion factors than any other parameters. (author)

  7. Transbios - a unified model for assessment of the effect of noxious materials in ground water to the biosphere. Compilation of the model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rejlek, G.

    1992-06-01

    This model of radionuclide propagation in the biosphere is part of the project 'Final Deposition of Low- and Medium- active Wastes from Hospitals, University Institutes and Industry'. The six parts are: a flow-and transport model in ground water, an evaporation-transpiration model, a transfer model soil-to-plant, a water cycle- and a food chain model. Solutions are designed and peculiarities of the program are outlined. Finally the individual parts are integrated into the overall model

  8. Variability of Phenology and Fluxes of Water and Carbon with Observed and Simulated Soil Moisture in the Ent Terrestrial Biosphere Model (Ent TBM Version 1.0.1.0.0)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Y.; Moorcroft, P. R.; Aleinov, Igor; Puma, M. J.; Kiang, N. Y.

    2015-01-01

    The Ent Terrestrial Biosphere Model (Ent TBM) is a mixed-canopy dynamic global vegetation model developed specifically for coupling with land surface hydrology and general circulation models (GCMs). This study describes the leaf phenology submodel implemented in the Ent TBM version 1.0.1.0.0 coupled to the carbon allocation scheme of the Ecosystem Demography (ED) model. The phenology submodel adopts a combination of responses to temperature (growing degree days and frost hardening), soil moisture (linearity of stress with relative saturation) and radiation (light length). Growth of leaves, sapwood, fine roots, stem wood and coarse roots is updated on a daily basis. We evaluate the performance in reproducing observed leaf seasonal growth as well as water and carbon fluxes for four plant functional types at five Fluxnet sites, with both observed and prognostic hydrology, and observed and prognostic seasonal leaf area index. The phenology submodel is able to capture the timing and magnitude of leaf-out and senescence for temperate broadleaf deciduous forest (Harvard Forest and Morgan- Monroe State Forest, US), C3 annual grassland (Vaira Ranch, US) and California oak savanna (Tonzi Ranch, US). For evergreen needleleaf forest (Hyytiäla, Finland), the phenology submodel captures the effect of frost hardening of photosynthetic capacity on seasonal fluxes and leaf area. We address the importance of customizing parameter sets of vegetation soil moisture stress response to the particular land surface hydrology scheme. We identify model deficiencies that reveal important dynamics and parameter needs.

  9. Variability of phenology and fluxes of water and carbon with observed and simulated soil moisture in the Ent Terrestrial Biosphere Model (Ent TBM version 1.0.1.0.0)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Y.; Moorcroft, P. R.; Aleinov, I.; Puma, M. J.; Kiang, N. Y.

    2015-12-01

    The Ent Terrestrial Biosphere Model (Ent TBM) is a mixed-canopy dynamic global vegetation model developed specifically for coupling with land surface hydrology and general circulation models (GCMs). This study describes the leaf phenology submodel implemented in the Ent TBM version 1.0.1.0.0 coupled to the carbon allocation scheme of the Ecosystem Demography (ED) model. The phenology submodel adopts a combination of responses to temperature (growing degree days and frost hardening), soil moisture (linearity of stress with relative saturation) and radiation (light length). Growth of leaves, sapwood, fine roots, stem wood and coarse roots is updated on a daily basis. We evaluate the performance in reproducing observed leaf seasonal growth as well as water and carbon fluxes for four plant functional types at five Fluxnet sites, with both observed and prognostic hydrology, and observed and prognostic seasonal leaf area index. The phenology submodel is able to capture the timing and magnitude of leaf-out and senescence for temperate broadleaf deciduous forest (Harvard Forest and Morgan-Monroe State Forest, US), C3 annual grassland (Vaira Ranch, US) and California oak savanna (Tonzi Ranch, US). For evergreen needleleaf forest (Hyytiäla, Finland), the phenology submodel captures the effect of frost hardening of photosynthetic capacity on seasonal fluxes and leaf area. We address the importance of customizing parameter sets of vegetation soil moisture stress response to the particular land surface hydrology scheme. We identify model deficiencies that reveal important dynamics and parameter needs.

  10. Cyberinfrastructure to Support Collaborative and Reproducible Computational Hydrologic Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goodall, J. L.; Castronova, A. M.; Bandaragoda, C.; Morsy, M. M.; Sadler, J. M.; Essawy, B.; Tarboton, D. G.; Malik, T.; Nijssen, B.; Clark, M. P.; Liu, Y.; Wang, S. W.

    2017-12-01

    Creating cyberinfrastructure to support reproducibility of computational hydrologic models is an important research challenge. Addressing this challenge requires open and reusable code and data with machine and human readable metadata, organized in ways that allow others to replicate results and verify published findings. Specific digital objects that must be tracked for reproducible computational hydrologic modeling include (1) raw initial datasets, (2) data processing scripts used to clean and organize the data, (3) processed model inputs, (4) model results, and (5) the model code with an itemization of all software dependencies and computational requirements. HydroShare is a cyberinfrastructure under active development designed to help users store, share, and publish digital research products in order to improve reproducibility in computational hydrology, with an architecture supporting hydrologic-specific resource metadata. Researchers can upload data required for modeling, add hydrology-specific metadata to these resources, and use the data directly within HydroShare.org for collaborative modeling using tools like CyberGIS, Sciunit-CLI, and JupyterHub that have been integrated with HydroShare to run models using notebooks, Docker containers, and cloud resources. Current research aims to implement the Structure For Unifying Multiple Modeling Alternatives (SUMMA) hydrologic model within HydroShare to support hypothesis-driven hydrologic modeling while also taking advantage of the HydroShare cyberinfrastructure. The goal of this integration is to create the cyberinfrastructure that supports hypothesis-driven model experimentation, education, and training efforts by lowering barriers to entry, reducing the time spent on informatics technology and software development, and supporting collaborative research within and across research groups.

  11. Landscape-based hydrological modelling : Understanding the influence of climate, topography, and vegetation on catchment hydrology

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gao, H.

    2015-01-01

    In this thesis, a novel landscape-based hydrological model is presented that was developed and tested in numerous catchments around the world with various landscapes and climate conditions. A landscape is considered to consist of a topography and an ecosystem living on it. Firstly, the influence of

  12. Treatment of input uncertainty in hydrologic modeling: Doing hydrology backward with Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vrugt, J.A.; Braak, ter C.J.F.; Clark, M.P.; Hyman, J.M.; Robinson, B.A.

    2008-01-01

    There is increasing consensus in the hydrologic literature that an appropriate framework for streamflow forecasting and simulation should include explicit recognition of forcing and parameter and model structural error. This paper presents a novel Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampler, entitled

  13. A question driven socio-hydrological modeling process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia, M.; Portney, K.; Islam, S.

    2016-01-01

    Human and hydrological systems are coupled: human activity impacts the hydrological cycle and hydrological conditions can, but do not always, trigger changes in human systems. Traditional modeling approaches with no feedback between hydrological and human systems typically cannot offer insight into how different patterns of natural variability or human-induced changes may propagate through this coupled system. Modeling of coupled human-hydrological systems, also called socio-hydrological systems, recognizes the potential for humans to transform hydrological systems and for hydrological conditions to influence human behavior. However, this coupling introduces new challenges and existing literature does not offer clear guidance regarding model conceptualization. There are no universally accepted laws of human behavior as there are for the physical systems; furthermore, a shared understanding of important processes within the field is often used to develop hydrological models, but there is no such consensus on the relevant processes in socio-hydrological systems. Here we present a question driven process to address these challenges. Such an approach allows modeling structure, scope and detail to remain contingent on and adaptive to the question context. We demonstrate the utility of this process by revisiting a classic question in water resources engineering on reservoir operation rules: what is the impact of reservoir operation policy on the reliability of water supply for a growing city? Our example model couples hydrological and human systems by linking the rate of demand decreases to the past reliability to compare standard operating policy (SOP) with hedging policy (HP). The model shows that reservoir storage acts both as a buffer for variability and as a delay triggering oscillations around a sustainable level of demand. HP reduces the threshold for action thereby decreasing the delay and the oscillation effect. As a result, per capita demand decreases during

  14. The transferability of hydrological models under nonstationary climatic conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Z. Li

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates issues involved in calibrating hydrological models against observed data when the aim of the modelling is to predict future runoff under different climatic conditions. To achieve this objective, we tested two hydrological models, DWBM and SIMHYD, using data from 30 unimpaired catchments in Australia which had at least 60 yr of daily precipitation, potential evapotranspiration (PET, and streamflow data. Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE, modified index of agreement (d1 and water balance error (WBE were used as performance criteria. We used a differential split-sample test to split up the data into 120 sub-periods and 4 different climatic sub-periods in order to assess how well the calibrated model could be transferred different periods. For each catchment, the models were calibrated for one sub-period and validated on the other three. Monte Carlo simulation was used to explore parameter stability compared to historic climatic variability. The chi-square test was used to measure the relationship between the distribution of the parameters and hydroclimatic variability. The results showed that the performance of the two hydrological models differed and depended on the model calibration. We found that if a hydrological model is set up to simulate runoff for a wet climate scenario then it should be calibrated on a wet segment of the historic record, and similarly a dry segment should be used for a dry climate scenario. The Monte Carlo simulation provides an effective and pragmatic approach to explore uncertainty and equifinality in hydrological model parameters. Some parameters of the hydrological models are shown to be significantly more sensitive to the choice of calibration periods. Our findings support the idea that when using conceptual hydrological models to assess future climate change impacts, a differential split-sample test and Monte Carlo simulation should be used to quantify uncertainties due to

  15. A comparison between the example reference biosphere model ERB 2B and a process-based model: simulation of a natural release scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Almahayni, T

    2014-12-01

    The BIOMASS methodology was developed with the objective of constructing defensible assessment biospheres for assessing potential radiological impacts of radioactive waste repositories. To this end, a set of Example Reference Biospheres were developed to demonstrate the use of the methodology and to provide an international point of reference. In this paper, the performance of the Example Reference Biosphere model ERB 2B associated with the natural release scenario, discharge of contaminated groundwater to the surface environment, was evaluated by comparing its long-term projections of radionuclide dynamics and distribution in a soil-plant system to those of a process-based, transient advection-dispersion model (AD). The models were parametrised with data characteristic of a typical rainfed winter wheat crop grown on a sandy loam soil under temperate climate conditions. Three safety-relevant radionuclides, (99)Tc, (129)I and (237)Np with different degree of sorption were selected for the study. Although the models were driven by the same hydraulic (soil moisture content and water fluxes) and radiological (Kds) input data, their projections were remarkably different. On one hand, both models were able to capture short and long-term variation in activity concentration in the subsoil compartment. On the other hand, the Reference Biosphere model did not project any radionuclide accumulation in the topsoil and crop compartments. This behaviour would underestimate the radiological exposure under natural release scenarios. The results highlight the potential role deep roots play in soil-to-plant transfer under a natural release scenario where radionuclides are released into the subsoil. When considering the relative activity and root depth profiles within the soil column, much of the radioactivity was taken up into the crop from the subsoil compartment. Further improvements were suggested to address the limitations of the Reference Biosphere model presented in this paper

  16. Hydrological Process Simulation of Inland River Watershed: A Case Study of the Heihe River Basin with Multiple Hydrological Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lili Wang

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Simulating the hydrological processes of an inland river basin can help provide the scientific guidance to the policies of water allocation among different subbasins and water resource management groups within the subbasins. However, it is difficult to simulate the hydrological processes of an inland river basin with hydrological models due to the non-consistent hydrological characteristics of the entire basin. This study presents a solution to this problem with a case study about the hydrological process simulation in an inland river basin in China, Heihe River basin. It is divided into the upper, middle, and lower reaches based on the distinctive hydrological characteristics in the Heihe River basin, and three hydrological models are selected, applied, and tested to simulate the hydrological cycling processes for each reach. The upper reach is the contributing area with the complex runoff generation processes, therefore, the hydrological informatic modeling system (HIMS is utilized due to its combined runoff generation mechanisms. The middle reach has strong impacts of intensive human activities on the interactions of surface and subsurface flows, so a conceptual water balance model is applied to simulate the water balance process. For the lower reach, as the dissipative area with groundwater dominating the hydrological process, a groundwater modeling system with the embedment of MODFLOW model is applied to simulate the groundwater dynamics. Statistical parameters and water balance analysis prove that the three models have excellent performances in simulating the hydrological process of the three reaches. Therefore, it is an effective way to simulate the hydrological process of inland river basin with multiple hydrological models according to the characteristics of each subbasin.

  17. Hillslope hydrological modeling : the role of bedrock geometry and hillslope-stream interaction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Shahedi, K.

    2008-01-01

    Keywords: Hillslope hydrology, hydrological modeling, bedrock geometry, boundary condition, numerical solution.

    This thesis focuses on hillslope subsurface flow as a dominant control on the hydrological processes defining the catchment response to rainfall. Due to the difficulties

  18. The Biosphere International Peer Review

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van Luik, Abraham

    2002-01-01

    Abe van Luik (US DOE- YM, USA), ended the presentation by giving feedback from the IAEA peer review on the biosphere modelling strategy developed by the DOE Yucca Mountain Site Characterisation Office (YMSCO). This review was based on available international standards and guidance. The peer review team was constituted of both experts from regulatory and waste management organisations and national advisory committees. The implementation of the review consisted of an examination of biosphere reports mainly regarding the modelling and question and answer exchanges. The final report was submitted in April 2000. It contained twenty-three recommendations within two broad classifications; one concerning the regulatory framework, the other one regarding the framework to increase stakeholders' confidence in modelling. The three main categories of recommendations were outlined, namely (i) the DOE' s Biosphere assessment Approach, (ii) the definition of the biosphere system, and (iii) the model development, data and results. Regarding in particular the treatment of the uncertainties in the biosphere, it was viewed as a key issue during the review and thus it will be re-evaluated in the future performance assessment. The summary highlighted most of the recommendations received are to be acted on, and are to be included in the License Application plan for biosphere modelling

  19. Coupling Hydrologic and Hydrodynamic Models to Estimate PMF

    Science.gov (United States)

    Felder, G.; Weingartner, R.

    2015-12-01

    Most sophisticated probable maximum flood (PMF) estimations derive the PMF from the probable maximum precipitation (PMP) by applying deterministic hydrologic models calibrated with observed data. This method is based on the assumption that the hydrological system is stationary, meaning that the system behaviour during the calibration period or the calibration event is presumed to be the same as it is during the PMF. However, as soon as a catchment-specific threshold is reached, the system is no longer stationary. At or beyond this threshold, retention areas, new flow paths, and changing runoff processes can strongly affect downstream peak discharge. These effects can be accounted for by coupling hydrologic and hydrodynamic models, a technique that is particularly promising when the expected peak discharge may considerably exceed the observed maximum discharge. In such cases, the coupling of hydrologic and hydraulic models has the potential to significantly increase the physical plausibility of PMF estimations. This procedure ensures both that the estimated extreme peak discharge does not exceed the physical limit based on riverbed capacity and that the dampening effect of inundation processes on peak discharge is considered. Our study discusses the prospect of considering retention effects on PMF estimations by coupling hydrologic and hydrodynamic models. This method is tested by forcing PREVAH, a semi-distributed deterministic hydrological model, with randomly generated, physically plausible extreme precipitation patterns. The resulting hydrographs are then used to externally force the hydraulic model BASEMENT-ETH (riverbed in 1D, potential inundation areas in 2D). Finally, the PMF estimation results obtained using the coupled modelling approach are compared to the results obtained using ordinary hydrologic modelling.

  20. Biosphere data base revision

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bergstroem, U.; Andersson, K.; Sundblad, B.

    1985-12-01

    The turnover of long-lived radionuclides in the biosphere has been modelled some time ago and the exposure to man was calculated. The nuclides were long-lived actinides and fission products leaking from a simulated deep rock repository for spent nuclear fuel. The data base for these calculations has been updated in the present work and in addition a number of nuclides that were not included in the earlier work have been treated. (G.B.)

  1. airGRteaching: an R-package designed for teaching hydrology with lumped hydrological models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thirel, Guillaume; Delaigue, Olivier; Coron, Laurent; Andréassian, Vazken; Brigode, Pierre

    2017-04-01

    Lumped hydrological models are useful and convenient tools for research, engineering and educational purposes. They propose catchment-scale representations of the precipitation-discharge relationship. Thanks to their limited data requirements, they can be easily implemented and run. With such models, it is possible to simulate a number of hydrological key processes over the catchment with limited structural and parametric complexity, typically evapotranspiration, runoff, underground losses, etc. The Hydrology Group at Irstea (Antony) has been developing a suite of rainfall-runoff models over the past 30 years. This resulted in a suite of models running at different time steps (from hourly to annual) applicable for various issues including water balance estimation, forecasting, simulation of impacts and scenario testing. Recently, Irstea has developed an easy-to-use R-package (R Core Team, 2016), called airGR (Coron et al., 2016, 2017), to make these models widely available. Although its initial target public was hydrological modellers, the package is already used for educational purposes. Indeed, simple models allow for rapidly visualising the effects of parameterizations and model components on flows hydrographs. In order to avoid the difficulties that students may have when manipulating R and datasets, we developed (Delaigue and Coron, 2016): - Three simplified functions to prepare data, calibrate a model and run a simulation - Simplified and dynamic plot functions - A shiny (Chang et al., 2016) interface that connects this R-package to a browser-based visualisation tool. On this interface, the students can use different hydrological models (including the possibility to use a snow-accounting model), manually modify their parameters and automatically calibrate their parameters with diverse objective functions. One of the visualisation tabs of the interface includes observed precipitation and temperature, simulated snowpack (if any), observed and simulated

  2. Open source data assimilation framework for hydrological modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ridler, Marc; Hummel, Stef; van Velzen, Nils; Katrine Falk, Anne; Madsen, Henrik

    2013-04-01

    An open-source data assimilation framework is proposed for hydrological modeling. Data assimilation (DA) in hydrodynamic and hydrological forecasting systems has great potential to improve predictions and improve model result. The basic principle is to incorporate measurement information into a model with the aim to improve model results by error minimization. Great strides have been made to assimilate traditional in-situ measurements such as discharge, soil moisture, hydraulic head and snowpack into hydrologic models. More recently, remotely sensed data retrievals of soil moisture, snow water equivalent or snow cover area, surface water elevation, terrestrial water storage and land surface temperature have been successfully assimilated in hydrological models. The assimilation algorithms have become increasingly sophisticated to manage measurement and model bias, non-linear systems, data sparsity (time & space) and undetermined system uncertainty. It is therefore useful to use a pre-existing DA toolbox such as OpenDA. OpenDA is an open interface standard for (and free implementation of) a set of tools to quickly implement DA and calibration for arbitrary numerical models. The basic design philosophy of OpenDA is to breakdown DA into a set of building blocks programmed in object oriented languages. To implement DA, a model must interact with OpenDA to create model instances, propagate the model, get/set variables (or parameters) and free the model once DA is completed. An open-source interface for hydrological models exists capable of all these tasks: OpenMI. OpenMI is an open source standard interface already adopted by key hydrological model providers. It defines a universal approach to interact with hydrological models during simulation to exchange data during runtime, thus facilitating the interactions between models and data sources. The interface is flexible enough so that models can interact even if the model is coded in a different language, represent

  3. A sensitivity analysis of regional and small watershed hydrologic models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ambaruch, R.; Salomonson, V. V.; Simmons, J. W.

    1975-01-01

    Continuous simulation models of the hydrologic behavior of watersheds are important tools in several practical applications such as hydroelectric power planning, navigation, and flood control. Several recent studies have addressed the feasibility of using remote earth observations as sources of input data for hydrologic models. The objective of the study reported here was to determine how accurately remotely sensed measurements must be to provide inputs to hydrologic models of watersheds, within the tolerances needed for acceptably accurate synthesis of streamflow by the models. The study objective was achieved by performing a series of sensitivity analyses using continuous simulation models of three watersheds. The sensitivity analysis showed quantitatively how variations in each of 46 model inputs and parameters affect simulation accuracy with respect to five different performance indices.

  4. Experience in biosphere modelling and definition of exposed groups. Concerns on consideration of the long-term

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pinedo, P.

    2002-01-01

    The long life of high level waste and their 'possible' releases, from the repository, in the far future during wide time frames, introduce difficulties on the ability of forecasting actual doses. Similar difficulties were found when trying to establish or recommend protection criteria for the environment and human health. The stochastic nature of the whole problem, from the causes that initiate radionuclides releases to the nature of the environmental conditions where impact is evaluated, made more complex the treatment of the radionuclide transport models and the analysis of radiological impact. The application of radiological protection principles to this management option, was also seen as different from other present-day practices. All this gave rise to the diversification of the research lines towards new areas that allow for the analysis of radionuclide transport, dose calculations and, criteria, in this new situation. The approach for the biosphere system based on the 'reference' concept, in essence the same idea as the one for the 'Reference man' concept, was promoted internationally, first within the BIOMOVS II Project and, afterwards, in the BIOMASS IAEA Programme. In parallel to the participation in these Projects and based on their conclusions, CIEMAT has been developing for ENRESA a methodology, which has to be updated and completed with recent developments from BIOMASS-Theme1. Notably, for the Justification and Identification step, the Description of Critical Groups and the use of the Data protocol. An application of this methodology was performed and published in 1998 and, its results and conclusions are summarised in the paper. Also, the paper includes main conclusions from the biosphere modelling applied in the last ENRESA2000 Spanish PA exercise and, difficulties found in the consistency between the scenario generation procedure, the treatment of the interface and the source term and, the use of the reference biosphere concept. (author)

  5. The relation between geometry, hydrology and stability of complex hillslopes examined using low-dimensional hydrological models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Talebi, A.

    2008-01-01

    Key words: Hillslope geometry, Hillslope hydrology, Hillslope stability, Complex hillslopes, Modeling shallow landslides, HSB model, HSB-SM model.

    The hydrologic response of a hillslope to rainfall involves a complex, transient saturated-unsaturated interaction that usually leads to a

  6. Ensemble Analysis of Variational Assimilation of Hydrologic and Hydrometeorological Data into Distributed Hydrologic Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, H.; Seo, D.; Koren, V.

    2008-12-01

    A prototype 4DVAR (four-dimensional variational) data assimilator for gridded Sacramento soil-moisture accounting and kinematic-wave routing models in the Hydrology Laboratory's Research Distributed Hydrologic Model (HL-RDHM) has been developed. The prototype assimilates streamflow and in-situ soil moisture data and adjusts gridded precipitation and climatological potential evaporation data to reduce uncertainty in the model initial conditions for improved monitoring and prediction of streamflow and soil moisture at the outlet and interior locations within the catchment. Due to large degrees of freedom involved, data assimilation (DA) into distributed hydrologic models is complex. To understand and assess sensitivity of the performance of DA to uncertainties in the model initial conditions and in the data, two synthetic experiments have been carried out in an ensemble framework. Results from the synthetic experiments shed much light on the potential and limitations with DA into distributed models. For initial real-world assessment, the prototype DA has also been applied to the headwater basin at Eldon near the Oklahoma-Arkansas border. We present these results and describe the next steps.

  7. Advancing Collaboration through Hydrologic Data and Model Sharing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tarboton, D. G.; Idaszak, R.; Horsburgh, J. S.; Ames, D. P.; Goodall, J. L.; Band, L. E.; Merwade, V.; Couch, A.; Hooper, R. P.; Maidment, D. R.; Dash, P. K.; Stealey, M.; Yi, H.; Gan, T.; Castronova, A. M.; Miles, B.; Li, Z.; Morsy, M. M.

    2015-12-01

    HydroShare is an online, collaborative system for open sharing of hydrologic data, analytical tools, and models. It supports the sharing of and collaboration around "resources" which are defined primarily by standardized metadata, content data models for each resource type, and an overarching resource data model based on the Open Archives Initiative's Object Reuse and Exchange (OAI-ORE) standard and a hierarchical file packaging system called "BagIt". HydroShare expands the data sharing capability of the CUAHSI Hydrologic Information System by broadening the classes of data accommodated to include geospatial and multidimensional space-time datasets commonly used in hydrology. HydroShare also includes new capability for sharing models, model components, and analytical tools and will take advantage of emerging social media functionality to enhance information about and collaboration around hydrologic data and models. It also supports web services and server/cloud based computation operating on resources for the execution of hydrologic models and analysis and visualization of hydrologic data. HydroShare uses iRODS as a network file system for underlying storage of datasets and models. Collaboration is enabled by casting datasets and models as "social objects". Social functions include both private and public sharing, formation of collaborative groups of users, and value-added annotation of shared datasets and models. The HydroShare web interface and social media functions were developed using the Django web application framework coupled to iRODS. Data visualization and analysis is supported through the Tethys Platform web GIS software stack. Links to external systems are supported by RESTful web service interfaces to HydroShare's content. This presentation will introduce the HydroShare functionality developed to date and describe ongoing development of functionality to support collaboration and integration of data and models.

  8. DISRUPTIVE EVENT BIOSPHERE DOSE CONVERSION FACTOR ANALYSIS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    M.A. Wasiolek

    2005-01-01

    This analysis report is one of the technical reports containing documentation of the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain, Nevada (ERMYN), a biosphere model supporting the total system performance assessment (TSPA) for the license application (LA) for the Yucca Mountain repository. This analysis report describes the development of biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs) for the volcanic ash exposure scenario, and the development of dose factors for calculating inhalation dose during volcanic eruption. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows the interrelationships among the products (i.e., analysis and model reports) developed for biosphere modeling and provides an understanding of how this analysis report contributes to biosphere modeling. This report is one of two reports that develop biosphere BDCFs, which are input parameters for the TSPA model. The Biosphere Model Report (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169460]) describes in detail the ERMYN conceptual model and mathematical model. The input parameter reports, shown to the right of the Biosphere Model Report in Figure 1-1, contain detailed descriptions of the model input parameters, their development and the relationship between the parameters and specific features, events and processes (FEPs). This report describes biosphere model calculations and their output, the BDCFs, for the volcanic ash exposure scenario. This analysis receives direct input from the outputs of the ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169460]) and from the five analyses that develop parameter values for the biosphere model (BSC 2005 [DIRS 172827]; BSC 2004 [DIRS 169672]; BSC 2004 [DIRS 169673]; BSC 2004 [DIRS 169458]; and BSC 2004 [DIRS 169459]). The results of this report are further analyzed in the ''Biosphere Dose Conversion Factor Importance and Sensitivity Analysis'' (Figure 1-1). The objective of this analysis was to develop the BDCFs for the volcanic

  9. Gsflow-py: An integrated hydrologic model development tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gardner, M.; Niswonger, R. G.; Morton, C.; Henson, W.; Huntington, J. L.

    2017-12-01

    Integrated hydrologic modeling encompasses a vast number of processes and specifications, variable in time and space, and development of model datasets can be arduous. Model input construction techniques have not been formalized or made easily reproducible. Creating the input files for integrated hydrologic models (IHM) requires complex GIS processing of raster and vector datasets from various sources. Developing stream network topology that is consistent with the model resolution digital elevation model is important for robust simulation of surface water and groundwater exchanges. Distribution of meteorologic parameters over the model domain is difficult in complex terrain at the model resolution scale, but is necessary to drive realistic simulations. Historically, development of input data for IHM models has required extensive GIS and computer programming expertise which has restricted the use of IHMs to research groups with available financial, human, and technical resources. Here we present a series of Python scripts that provide a formalized technique for the parameterization and development of integrated hydrologic model inputs for GSFLOW. With some modifications, this process could be applied to any regular grid hydrologic model. This Python toolkit automates many of the necessary and laborious processes of parameterization, including stream network development and cascade routing, land coverages, and meteorological distribution over the model domain.

  10. Incorporating modelled subglacial hydrology into inversions for basal drag

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. P. Koziol

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available A key challenge in modelling coupled ice-flow–subglacial hydrology is initializing the state and parameters of the system. We address this problem by presenting a workflow for initializing these values at the start of a summer melt season. The workflow depends on running a subglacial hydrology model for the winter season, when the system is not forced by meltwater inputs, and ice velocities can be assumed constant. Key parameters of the winter run of the subglacial hydrology model are determined from an initial inversion for basal drag using a linear sliding law. The state of the subglacial hydrology model at the end of winter is incorporated into an inversion of basal drag using a non-linear sliding law which is a function of water pressure. We demonstrate this procedure in the Russell Glacier area and compare the output of the linear sliding law with two non-linear sliding laws. Additionally, we compare the modelled winter hydrological state to radar observations and find that it is in line with summer rather than winter observations.

  11. Hydrological model uncertainty due to spatial evapotranspiration estimation methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Xuan; Lamačová, Anna; Duffy, Christopher; Krám, Pavel; Hruška, Jakub

    2016-05-01

    Evapotranspiration (ET) continues to be a difficult process to estimate in seasonal and long-term water balances in catchment models. Approaches to estimate ET typically use vegetation parameters (e.g., leaf area index [LAI], interception capacity) obtained from field observation, remote sensing data, national or global land cover products, and/or simulated by ecosystem models. In this study we attempt to quantify the uncertainty that spatial evapotranspiration estimation introduces into hydrological simulations when the age of the forest is not precisely known. The Penn State Integrated Hydrologic Model (PIHM) was implemented for the Lysina headwater catchment, located 50°03‧N, 12°40‧E in the western part of the Czech Republic. The spatial forest patterns were digitized from forest age maps made available by the Czech Forest Administration. Two ET methods were implemented in the catchment model: the Biome-BGC forest growth sub-model (1-way coupled to PIHM) and with the fixed-seasonal LAI method. From these two approaches simulation scenarios were developed. We combined the estimated spatial forest age maps and two ET estimation methods to drive PIHM. A set of spatial hydrologic regime and streamflow regime indices were calculated from the modeling results for each method. Intercomparison of the hydrological responses to the spatial vegetation patterns suggested considerable variation in soil moisture and recharge and a small uncertainty in the groundwater table elevation and streamflow. The hydrologic modeling with ET estimated by Biome-BGC generated less uncertainty due to the plant physiology-based method. The implication of this research is that overall hydrologic variability induced by uncertain management practices was reduced by implementing vegetation models in the catchment models.

  12. A distributed eco-hydrological model and its application

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zong-xue Xu

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Eco-hydrological processes in arid areas are the focus of many hydrological and water resources studies. However, the hydrological cycle and the ecological system have usually been considered separately in most previous studies, and the correlation between the two has not been fully understood. Interdisciplinary research on eco-hydrological processes using multidisciplinary knowledge has been insufficient. In order to quantitatively analyze and evaluate the interaction between the ecosystem and the hydrological cycle, a new kind of eco-hydrological model, the ecology module for a grid-based integrated surface and groundwater model (Eco-GISMOD, is proposed with a two-way coupling approach, which combines the ecological model (EPIC and hydrological model (GISMOD by considering water exchange in the soil layer. Water interaction between different soil layers is simply described through a generalized physical process in various situations. A special method was used to simulate the water exchange between plants and the soil layer, taking into account precipitation, evapotranspiration, infiltration, soil water replenishment, and root water uptake. In order to evaluate the system performance, the Heihe River Basin in northwestern China was selected for a case study. The results show that forests and crops were generally growing well with sufficient water supply, but water shortages, especially in the summer, inhibited the growth of grass and caused grass degradation. This demonstrates that water requirements and water consumption for different kinds of vegetation can be estimated by considering the water-supply rules of Eco-GISMOD, which will be helpful for the planning and management of water resources in the future.

  13. Modeling the Hydrological Regime of Turkana Lake (Kenya, Ethiopia) by Combining Spatially Distributed Hydrological Modeling and Remote Sensing Datasets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anghileri, D.; Kaelin, A.; Peleg, N.; Fatichi, S.; Molnar, P.; Roques, C.; Longuevergne, L.; Burlando, P.

    2017-12-01

    Hydrological modeling in poorly gauged basins can benefit from the use of remote sensing datasets although there are challenges associated with the mismatch in spatial and temporal scales between catchment scale hydrological models and remote sensing products. We model the hydrological processes and long-term water budget of the Lake Turkana catchment, a transboundary basin between Kenya and Ethiopia, by integrating several remote sensing products into a spatially distributed and physically explicit model, Topkapi-ETH. Lake Turkana is the world largest desert lake draining a catchment of 145'500 km2. It has three main contributing rivers: the Omo river, which contributes most of the annual lake inflow, the Turkwel river, and the Kerio rivers, which contribute the remaining part. The lake levels have shown great variations in the last decades due to long-term climate fluctuations and the regulation of three reservoirs, Gibe I, II, and III, which significantly alter the hydrological seasonality. Another large reservoir is planned and may be built in the next decade, generating concerns about the fate of Lake Turkana in the long run because of this additional anthropogenic pressure and increasing evaporation driven by climate change. We consider different remote sensing datasets, i.e., TRMM-V7 for precipitation, MERRA-2 for temperature, as inputs to the spatially distributed hydrological model. We validate the simulation results with other remote sensing datasets, i.e., GRACE for total water storage anomalies, GLDAS-NOAH for soil moisture, ERA-Interim/Land for surface runoff, and TOPEX/Poseidon for satellite altimetry data. Results highlight how different remote sensing products can be integrated into a hydrological modeling framework accounting for their relative uncertainties. We also carried out simulations with the artificial reservoirs planned in the north part of the catchment and without any reservoirs, to assess their impacts on the catchment hydrological

  14. Modeling of reservoir operation in UNH global hydrological model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shiklomanov, Alexander; Prusevich, Alexander; Frolking, Steve; Glidden, Stanley; Lammers, Richard; Wisser, Dominik

    2015-04-01

    Climate is changing and river flow is an integrated characteristic reflecting numerous environmental processes and their changes aggregated over large areas. Anthropogenic impacts on the river flow, however, can significantly exceed the changes associated with climate variability. Besides of irrigation, reservoirs and dams are one of major anthropogenic factor affecting streamflow. They distort hydrological regime of many rivers by trapping of freshwater runoff, modifying timing of river discharge and increasing the evaporation rate. Thus, reservoirs is an integral part of the global hydrological system and their impacts on rivers have to be taken into account for better quantification and understanding of hydrological changes. We developed a new technique, which was incorporated into WBM-TrANS model (Water Balance Model-Transport from Anthropogenic and Natural Systems) to simulate river routing through large reservoirs and natural lakes based on information available from freely accessible databases such as GRanD (the Global Reservoir and Dam database) or NID (National Inventory of Dams for US). Different formulations were applied for unregulated spillway dams and lakes, and for 4 types of regulated reservoirs, which were subdivided based on main purpose including generic (multipurpose), hydropower generation, irrigation and water supply, and flood control. We also incorporated rules for reservoir fill up and draining at the times of construction and decommission based on available data. The model were tested for many reservoirs of different size and types located in various climatic conditions using several gridded meteorological data sets as model input and observed daily and monthly discharge data from GRDC (Global Runoff Data Center), USGS Water Data (US Geological Survey), and UNH archives. The best results with Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient in the range of 0.5-0.9 were obtained for temperate zone of Northern Hemisphere where most of large

  15. Creating Data and Modeling Enabled Hydrology Instruction Using Collaborative Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merwade, V.; Rajib, A.; Ruddell, B. L.; Fox, S.

    2017-12-01

    Hydrology instruction typically involves teaching of the hydrologic cycle and the processes associated with it such as precipitation, evapotranspiration, infiltration, runoff generation and hydrograph analysis. With the availability of observed and remotely sensed data related to many hydrologic fluxes, there is an opportunity to use these data for place based learning in hydrology classrooms. However, it is not always easy and possible for an instructor to complement an existing hydrology course with new material that requires both the time and technical expertise, which the instructor may not have. The work presented here describes an effort where students create the data and modeling driven instruction material as a part of their class assignment for a hydrology course at Purdue University. The data driven hydrology education project within Science Education Resources Center (SERC) is used as a platform to publish and share the instruction material so it can be used by future students in the same course or any other course anywhere in the world. Students in the class were divided into groups, and each group was assigned a topic such as precipitation, evapotranspiration, streamflow, flow duration curve and frequency analysis. Each student in the group was then asked to get data and do some analysis for an area with specific landuse characteristic such as urban, rural and agricultural. The student contribution were then organized into learning units such that someone can do a flow duration curve analysis or flood frequency analysis to see how it changes for rural area versus urban area. The hydrology education project within SERC cyberinfrastructure enables any other instructor to adopt this material as is or through modification to suit his/her place based instruction needs.

  16. Hydrological Modeling in Alaska with WRF-Hydro

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elmer, N. J.; Zavodsky, B.; Molthan, A.

    2017-12-01

    The operational National Water Model (NWM), implemented in August 2016, is an instantiation of the Weather Research and Forecasting hydrological extension package (WRF-Hydro). Currently, the NWM only covers the contiguous United States, but will be expanded to include an Alaska domain in the future. It is well known that Alaska presents several hydrological modeling challenges, including unique arctic/sub-arctic hydrological processes not observed elsewhere in the United States and a severe lack of in-situ observations for model initialization. This project sets up an experimental version of WRF-Hydro in Alaska mimicking the NWM to gauge the ability of WRF-Hydro to represent hydrological processes in Alaska and identify model calibration challenges. Recent and upcoming launches of hydrology-focused NASA satellite missions such as the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) and Surface Water Ocean Topography (SWOT) expand the spatial and temporal coverage of observations in Alaska, so this study also lays the groundwork for assimilating these NASA datasets into WRF-Hydro in the future.

  17. How to handle spatial heterogeneity in hydrological models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loritz, Ralf; Neuper, Malte; Gupta, Hoshin; Zehe, Erwin

    2017-04-01

    The amount of data we observe in our environmental systems is larger than ever. This leads to a new kind of problem where hydrological modelers can have access to large datasets with various quantitative and qualitative observations but are uncertain about the information content with respect to the hydrological functioning of a landscape. For example digital elevation models obviously contain plenty of information about the topography of a landscape; however the question of relevance for Hydrology is how much of this information is important for the hydrological functioning of a landscape. This kind of question is not limited to topography and we can ask similar questions when handling distributed rainfall data or geophysical images. In this study we would like to show how one can separate dominant patterns in the landscape from idiosyncratic system details. We use a 2D numerical hillslope model in combination with an extensive research data set to test a variety of different model setups that are built upon different landscape characteristics and run by different rainfalls measurements. With the help of information theory based measures we can identify and learn how much heterogeneity is really necessary for successful hydrological simulations and how much of it we can neglect.

  18. Towards simplification of hydrologic modeling: Identification of dominant processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Markstrom, Steven; Hay, Lauren E.; Clark, Martyn P.

    2016-01-01

    The Precipitation–Runoff Modeling System (PRMS), a distributed-parameter hydrologic model, has been applied to the conterminous US (CONUS). Parameter sensitivity analysis was used to identify: (1) the sensitive input parameters and (2) particular model output variables that could be associated with the dominant hydrologic process(es). Sensitivity values of 35 PRMS calibration parameters were computed using the Fourier amplitude sensitivity test procedure on 110 000 independent hydrologically based spatial modeling units covering the CONUS and then summarized to process (snowmelt, surface runoff, infiltration, soil moisture, evapotranspiration, interflow, baseflow, and runoff) and model performance statistic (mean, coefficient of variation, and autoregressive lag 1). Identified parameters and processes provide insight into model performance at the location of each unit and allow the modeler to identify the most dominant process on the basis of which processes are associated with the most sensitive parameters. The results of this study indicate that: (1) the choice of performance statistic and output variables has a strong influence on parameter sensitivity, (2) the apparent model complexity to the modeler can be reduced by focusing on those processes that are associated with sensitive parameters and disregarding those that are not, (3) different processes require different numbers of parameters for simulation, and (4) some sensitive parameters influence only one hydrologic process, while others may influence many

  19. Use of remote sensing data in distributed hydrological models: applications in the Senegal River basin

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sandholt, Inge; Andersen, Jens Asger; Gybkjær, Gorm

    1999-01-01

    Earth observation, remote sensing, hydrology, distributed hydrological modelling, West Africa, Senegal river basin, land cover, soil moisture, NOAA AVHRR, SPOT, Mike-she......Earth observation, remote sensing, hydrology, distributed hydrological modelling, West Africa, Senegal river basin, land cover, soil moisture, NOAA AVHRR, SPOT, Mike-she...

  20. Modeling urbanized watershed flood response changes with distributed hydrological model: key hydrological processes, parameterization and case studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Y.

    2017-12-01

    Urbanization is the world development trend for the past century, and the developing countries have been experiencing much rapider urbanization in the past decades. Urbanization brings many benefits to human beings, but also causes negative impacts, such as increasing flood risk. Impact of urbanization on flood response has long been observed, but quantitatively studying this effect still faces great challenges. For example, setting up an appropriate hydrological model representing the changed flood responses and determining accurate model parameters are very difficult in the urbanized or urbanizing watershed. In the Pearl River Delta area, rapidest urbanization has been observed in China for the past decades, and dozens of highly urbanized watersheds have been appeared. In this study, a physically based distributed watershed hydrological model, the Liuxihe model is employed and revised to simulate the hydrological processes of the highly urbanized watershed flood in the Pearl River Delta area. A virtual soil type is then defined in the terrain properties dataset, and its runoff production and routing algorithms are added to the Liuxihe model. Based on a parameter sensitive analysis, the key hydrological processes of a highly urbanized watershed is proposed, that provides insight into the hydrological processes and for parameter optimization. Based on the above analysis, the model is set up in the Songmushan watershed where there is hydrological data observation. A model parameter optimization and updating strategy is proposed based on the remotely sensed LUC types, which optimizes model parameters with PSO algorithm and updates them based on the changed LUC types. The model parameters in Songmushan watershed are regionalized at the Pearl River Delta area watersheds based on the LUC types of the other watersheds. A dozen watersheds in the highly urbanized area of Dongguan City in the Pearl River Delta area were studied for the flood response changes due to

  1. Modelling catchment hydrological responses in a Himalayan Lake ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    water extent of the lake barely covers 11.5 km2. (Badar and Romshoo ... Recent developments of decision support systems based on GIS and distributed hydrological models .... flow of the methodology is given in figure 2. 3.1.1 Model structure ...

  2. Towards simplification of hydrologic modeling: identification of dominant processes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. L. Markstrom

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available parameter hydrologic model, has been applied to the conterminous US (CONUS. Parameter sensitivity analysis was used to identify: (1 the sensitive input parameters and (2 particular model output variables that could be associated with the dominant hydrologic process(es. Sensitivity values of 35 PRMS calibration parameters were computed using the Fourier amplitude sensitivity test procedure on 110 000 independent hydrologically based spatial modeling units covering the CONUS and then summarized to process (snowmelt, surface runoff, infiltration, soil moisture, evapotranspiration, interflow, baseflow, and runoff and model performance statistic (mean, coefficient of variation, and autoregressive lag 1. Identified parameters and processes provide insight into model performance at the location of each unit and allow the modeler to identify the most dominant process on the basis of which processes are associated with the most sensitive parameters. The results of this study indicate that: (1 the choice of performance statistic and output variables has a strong influence on parameter sensitivity, (2 the apparent model complexity to the modeler can be reduced by focusing on those processes that are associated with sensitive parameters and disregarding those that are not, (3 different processes require different numbers of parameters for simulation, and (4 some sensitive parameters influence only one hydrologic process, while others may influence many.

  3. Refining the Committee Approach and Uncertainty Prediction in Hydrological Modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kayastha, N.

    2014-01-01

    Due to the complexity of hydrological systems a single model may be unable to capture the full range of a catchment response and accurately predict the streamflows. The multi modelling approach opens up possibilities for handling such difficulties and allows improve the predictive capability of

  4. A fully integrated SWAT-MODFLOW hydrologic model

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and MODFLOW models are being used worldwide for managing surface and groundwater water resources. The SWAT models hydrological processes occurring at the surface including shallow aquifers, while MODFLOW simulate groundwater processes. However, neither SWAT ...

  5. Advances in Applications of Hierarchical Bayesian Methods with Hydrological Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alexander, R. B.; Schwarz, G. E.; Boyer, E. W.

    2017-12-01

    Mechanistic and empirical watershed models are increasingly used to inform water resource decisions. Growing access to historical stream measurements and data from in-situ sensor technologies has increased the need for improved techniques for coupling models with hydrological measurements. Techniques that account for the intrinsic uncertainties of both models and measurements are especially needed. Hierarchical Bayesian methods provide an efficient modeling tool for quantifying model and prediction uncertainties, including those associated with measurements. Hierarchical methods can also be used to explore spatial and temporal variations in model parameters and uncertainties that are informed by hydrological measurements. We used hierarchical Bayesian methods to develop a hybrid (statistical-mechanistic) SPARROW (SPAtially Referenced Regression On Watershed attributes) model of long-term mean annual streamflow across diverse environmental and climatic drainages in 18 U.S. hydrological regions. Our application illustrates the use of a new generation of Bayesian methods that offer more advanced computational efficiencies than the prior generation. Evaluations of the effects of hierarchical (regional) variations in model coefficients and uncertainties on model accuracy indicates improved prediction accuracies (median of 10-50%) but primarily in humid eastern regions, where model uncertainties are one-third of those in arid western regions. Generally moderate regional variability is observed for most hierarchical coefficients. Accounting for measurement and structural uncertainties, using hierarchical state-space techniques, revealed the effects of spatially-heterogeneous, latent hydrological processes in the "localized" drainages between calibration sites; this improved model precision, with only minor changes in regional coefficients. Our study can inform advances in the use of hierarchical methods with hydrological models to improve their integration with stream

  6. Ensemble catchment hydrological modelling for climate change impact analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vansteenkiste, Thomas; Ntegeka, Victor; Willems, Patrick

    2014-05-01

    It is vital to investigate how the hydrological model structure affects the climate change impact given that future changes not in the range for which the models were calibrated or validated are likely. Thus an ensemble modelling approach which involves a diversity of models with different structures such as spatial resolutions and process descriptions is crucial. The ensemble modelling approach was applied to a set of models: from the lumped conceptual models NAM, PDM and VHM, an intermediate detailed and distributed model WetSpa, to the highly detailed and fully distributed model MIKE-SHE. Explicit focus was given to the high and low flow extremes. All models were calibrated for sub flows and quick flows derived from rainfall and potential evapotranspiration (ETo) time series. In general, all models were able to produce reliable estimates of the flow regimes under the current climate for extreme peak and low flows. An intercomparison of the low and high flow changes under changed climatic conditions was made using climate scenarios tailored for extremes. Tailoring was important for two reasons. First, since the use of many scenarios was not feasible it was necessary to construct few scenarios that would reasonably represent the range of extreme impacts. Second, scenarios would be more informative as changes in high and low flows would be easily traced to changes of ETo and rainfall; the tailored scenarios are constructed using seasonal changes that are defined using different levels of magnitude (high, mean and low) for rainfall and ETo. After simulation of these climate scenarios in the five hydrological models, close agreement was found among the models. The different models predicted similar range of peak flow changes. For the low flows, however, the differences in the projected impact range by different hydrological models was larger, particularly for the drier scenarios. This suggests that the hydrological model structure is critical in low flow predictions

  7. Hydrologic and Water Quality Model Development Using Simulink

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James D. Bowen

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available A stormwater runoff model based on the Soil Conservation Service (SCS method and a finite-volume based water quality model have been developed to investigate the use of Simulink for use in teaching and research. Simulink, a MATLAB extension, is a graphically based model development environment for system modeling and simulation. Widely used for mechanical and electrical systems, Simulink has had less use for modeling of hydrologic systems. The watershed model is being considered for use in teaching graduate-level courses in hydrology and/or stormwater modeling. Simulink’s block (data process and arrow (data transfer object model, the copy and paste user interface, the large number of existing blocks, and the absence of computer code allows students to become model developers almost immediately. The visual depiction of systems, their component subsystems, and the flow of data through the systems are ideal attributes for hands-on teaching of hydrologic and mass balance processes to today’s computer-savvy visual learners. Model development with Simulink for research purposes is also investigated. A finite volume, multi-layer pond model using the water quality kinetics present in CE-QUAL-W2 has been developed using Simulink. The model is one of the first uses of Simulink for modeling eutrophication dynamics in stratified natural systems. The model structure and a test case are presented. One use of the model for teaching a graduate-level water quality modeling class is also described.

  8. Use of hydrologic and hydrodynamic modeling for ecosystem restoration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Obeysekera, J.; Kuebler, L.; Ahmed, S.; Chang, M.-L.; Engel, V.; Langevin, C.; Swain, E.; Wan, Y.

    2011-01-01

    Planning and implementation of unprecedented projects for restoring the greater Everglades ecosystem are underway and the hydrologic and hydrodynamic modeling of restoration alternatives has become essential for success of restoration efforts. In view of the complex nature of the South Florida water resources system, regional-scale (system-wide) hydrologic models have been developed and used extensively for the development of the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan. In addition, numerous subregional-scale hydrologic and hydrodynamic models have been developed and are being used for evaluating project-scale water management plans associated with urban, agricultural, and inland costal ecosystems. The authors provide a comprehensive summary of models of all scales, as well as the next generation models under development to meet the future needs of ecosystem restoration efforts in South Florida. The multiagency efforts to develop and apply models have allowed the agencies to understand the complex hydrologic interactions, quantify appropriate performance measures, and use new technologies in simulation algorithms, software development, and GIS/database techniques to meet the future modeling needs of the ecosystem restoration programs. Copyright ?? 2011 Taylor & Francis Group, LLC.

  9. Hydrologic modeling and field testing at Yucca mountain, Nevada

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoxie, D.T.

    1991-01-01

    Yucca Mountain, Nevada, is being evaluated as a possible site for a mined geologic repository for the disposal of high-level nuclear waste. The repository is proposed to be constructed in fractured, densely welded tuff within the thick (500 to 750 meters) unsaturated zone at the site. Characterization of the site unsaturated-zone hydrogeologic system requires quantitative specification of the existing state of the system and the development of numerical hydrologic models to predict probable evolution of the hydrogeologic system over the lifetime of the repository. To support development of hydrologic models for the system, a testing program has been designed to characterize the existing state of the system, to measure hydrologic properties for the system and to identify and quantify those processes that control system dynamics. 12 refs

  10. Latest developments on the modeling of the biosphere in the management of radioactive waste in Spain; Ultimos desarrollos sobre la modelizacion de la biosfera en la gestion de residuos radiactivos en Espana

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Perez Sanchez, D.; Trueba Alonso, C.

    2013-07-01

    In recent years, the CIEMAT has developed for ENRESA a methodology and tools for safety assessment of the biosphere in the management of radioactive waste. This methodology includes modeling of migration and accumulation of radionuclides in the biosphere to allow the assessment of the radiological impact of the distribution of radionuclides in the environment. The working group is developing projects related to the safety assessment of the biosphere, which comprise several studies. In this paper the latest results obtained are described. (Author)

  11. It's the Biosphere, Stupid!

    OpenAIRE

    Cairns, John

    2007-01-01

    The biosphere is humankind s life support system and the source of the resources that drive exponential growth. Without the biospheric life support system functioning in a way that is favorable to humans, humankind could face extinctions.

  12. Land-surface modelling in hydrological perspective ? a review

    OpenAIRE

    Overgaard , J.; Rosbjerg , D.; Butts , M. B.

    2006-01-01

    International audience; The purpose of this paper is to provide a review of the different types of energy-based land-surface models (LSMs) and discuss some of the new possibilities that will arise when energy-based LSMs are combined with distributed hydrological modelling. We choose to focus on energy-based approaches, because in comparison to the traditional potential evapotranspiration models, these approaches allow for a stronger link to remote sensing and atmospheric modelling. New opport...

  13. Flood Modelling of Banjir Kanal Barat (Integration of Hydrology Model and GIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhammad Aris Marfai

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available Hydrological modelling has an advantage on river flood study. Hydrological factors can be easily determined and calculated using hydrological model. HEC-RAS (Hydrological Engineering Centre-River Analysis System software is well known as hydrological modelling software for flood simulation and encroachment analysis of the floodplain area. For spatial performance and analysis of flood, the integration of the Geographic Information Systems (GIS and hydrological model is needed. The aims of this research are 1 to perform a flood encroachment using HEC-RAS software, and 2 to generate a flood hazard map. The methodology for this research omprise of 1 generating geometric data as a requirement of the data input on HEC-RAS hydrological model, 2 Hydrological data inputting, 3 generating of the flood encroachment analysis, and 4 transformation of flood encroachment into flood hazard map. The spatial pattern of the flood hazard is illustrated in a map. The result shows that hydrological model as integration with GIS can be used for flood hazard map generation. This method has advantages on the calculation of the hydrological factors of flood and spatial performance of the flood hazard map. For further analysis, the landuse map can be used on the overlay operation with the flood hazard map in order to obtain the impact of the flood on the landuse.

  14. GLOFRIM v1.0-A globally applicable computational framework for integrated hydrological-hydrodynamic modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hoch, Jannis M.; Neal, Jeffrey C.; Baart, Fedor; Van Beek, Rens; Winsemius, Hessel C.; Bates, Paul D.; Bierkens, Marc F.P.

    2017-01-01

    We here present GLOFRIM, a globally applicable computational framework for integrated hydrological-hydrodynamic modelling. GLOFRIM facilitates spatially explicit coupling of hydrodynamic and hydrologic models and caters for an ensemble of models to be coupled. It currently encompasses the global

  15. Elements of a flexible approach for conceptual hydrological modeling : 1. Motivation and theoretical development

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fenicia, F.; Kavetski, D.; Savenije, H.H.G.

    2011-01-01

    This paper introduces a flexible framework for conceptual hydrological modeling, with two related objectives: (1) generalize and systematize the currently fragmented field of conceptual models and (2) provide a robust platform for understanding and modeling hydrological systems. In contrast to

  16. Improving Permafrost Hydrology Prediction Through Data-Model Integration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, C. J.; Andresen, C. G.; Atchley, A. L.; Bolton, W. R.; Busey, R.; Coon, E.; Charsley-Groffman, L.

    2017-12-01

    The CMIP5 Earth System Models were unable to adequately predict the fate of the 16GT of permafrost carbon in a warming climate due to poor representation of Arctic ecosystem processes. The DOE Office of Science Next Generation Ecosystem Experiment, NGEE-Arctic project aims to reduce uncertainty in the Arctic carbon cycle and its impact on the Earth's climate system by improved representation of the coupled physical, chemical and biological processes that drive how much buried carbon will be converted to CO2 and CH4, how fast this will happen, which form will dominate, and the degree to which increased plant productivity will offset increased soil carbon emissions. These processes fundamentally depend on permafrost thaw rate and its influence on surface and subsurface hydrology through thermal erosion, land subsidence and changes to groundwater flow pathways as soil, bedrock and alluvial pore ice and massive ground ice melts. LANL and its NGEE colleagues are co-developing data and models to better understand controls on permafrost degradation and improve prediction of the evolution of permafrost and its impact on Arctic hydrology. The LANL Advanced Terrestrial Simulator was built using a state of the art HPC software framework to enable the first fully coupled 3-dimensional surface-subsurface thermal-hydrology and land surface deformation simulations to simulate the evolution of the physical Arctic environment. Here we show how field data including hydrology, snow, vegetation, geochemistry and soil properties, are informing the development and application of the ATS to improve understanding of controls on permafrost stability and permafrost hydrology. The ATS is being used to inform parameterizations of complex coupled physical, ecological and biogeochemical processes for implementation in the DOE ACME land model, to better predict the role of changing Arctic hydrology on the global climate system. LA-UR-17-26566.

  17. Bayesian estimation of parameters in a regional hydrological model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Engeland

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available This study evaluates the applicability of the distributed, process-oriented Ecomag model for prediction of daily streamflow in ungauged basins. The Ecomag model is applied as a regional model to nine catchments in the NOPEX area, using Bayesian statistics to estimate the posterior distribution of the model parameters conditioned on the observed streamflow. The distribution is calculated by Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC analysis. The Bayesian method requires formulation of a likelihood function for the parameters and three alternative formulations are used. The first is a subjectively chosen objective function that describes the goodness of fit between the simulated and observed streamflow, as defined in the GLUE framework. The second and third formulations are more statistically correct likelihood models that describe the simulation errors. The full statistical likelihood model describes the simulation errors as an AR(1 process, whereas the simple model excludes the auto-regressive part. The statistical parameters depend on the catchments and the hydrological processes and the statistical and the hydrological parameters are estimated simultaneously. The results show that the simple likelihood model gives the most robust parameter estimates. The simulation error may be explained to a large extent by the catchment characteristics and climatic conditions, so it is possible to transfer knowledge about them to ungauged catchments. The statistical models for the simulation errors indicate that structural errors in the model are more important than parameter uncertainties. Keywords: regional hydrological model, model uncertainty, Bayesian analysis, Markov Chain Monte Carlo analysis

  18. A surface hydrology model for regional vector borne disease models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tompkins, Adrian; Asare, Ernest; Bomblies, Arne; Amekudzi, Leonard

    2016-04-01

    Small, sun-lit temporary pools that form during the rainy season are important breeding sites for many key mosquito vectors responsible for the transmission of malaria and other diseases. The representation of this surface hydrology in mathematical disease models is challenging, due to their small-scale, dependence on the terrain and the difficulty of setting soil parameters. Here we introduce a model that represents the temporal evolution of the aggregate statistics of breeding sites in a single pond fractional coverage parameter. The model is based on a simple, geometrical assumption concerning the terrain, and accounts for the processes of surface runoff, pond overflow, infiltration and evaporation. Soil moisture, soil properties and large-scale terrain slope are accounted for using a calibration parameter that sets the equivalent catchment fraction. The model is calibrated and then evaluated using in situ pond measurements in Ghana and ultra-high (10m) resolution explicit simulations for a village in Niger. Despite the model's simplicity, it is shown to reproduce the variability and mean of the pond aggregate water coverage well for both locations and validation techniques. Example malaria simulations for Uganda will be shown using this new scheme with a generic calibration setting, evaluated using district malaria case data. Possible methods for implementing regional calibration will be briefly discussed.

  19. Legacy model integration for enhancing hydrologic interdisciplinary research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dozier, A.; Arabi, M.; David, O.

    2013-12-01

    Many challenges are introduced to interdisciplinary research in and around the hydrologic science community due to advances in computing technology and modeling capabilities in different programming languages, across different platforms and frameworks by researchers in a variety of fields with a variety of experience in computer programming. Many new hydrologic models as well as optimization, parameter estimation, and uncertainty characterization techniques are developed in scripting languages such as Matlab, R, Python, or in newer languages such as Java and the .Net languages, whereas many legacy models have been written in FORTRAN and C, which complicates inter-model communication for two-way feedbacks. However, most hydrologic researchers and industry personnel have little knowledge of the computing technologies that are available to address the model integration process. Therefore, the goal of this study is to address these new challenges by utilizing a novel approach based on a publish-subscribe-type system to enhance modeling capabilities of legacy socio-economic, hydrologic, and ecologic software. Enhancements include massive parallelization of executions and access to legacy model variables at any point during the simulation process by another program without having to compile all the models together into an inseparable 'super-model'. Thus, this study provides two-way feedback mechanisms between multiple different process models that can be written in various programming languages and can run on different machines and operating systems. Additionally, a level of abstraction is given to the model integration process that allows researchers and other technical personnel to perform more detailed and interactive modeling, visualization, optimization, calibration, and uncertainty analysis without requiring deep understanding of inter-process communication. To be compatible, a program must be written in a programming language with bindings to a common

  20. HESS Opinions: Hydrologic predictions in a changing environment: behavioral modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. J. Schymanski

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available Most hydrological models are valid at most only in a few places and cannot be reasonably transferred to other places or to far distant time periods. Transfer in space is difficult because the models are conditioned on past observations at particular places to define parameter values and unobservable processes that are needed to fully characterize the structure and functioning of the landscape. Transfer in time has to deal with the likely temporal changes to both parameters and processes under future changed conditions. This remains an important obstacle to addressing some of the most urgent prediction questions in hydrology, such as prediction in ungauged basins and prediction under global change. In this paper, we propose a new approach to catchment hydrological modeling, based on universal principles that do not change in time and that remain valid across many places. The key to this framework, which we call behavioral modeling, is to assume that there are universal and time-invariant organizing principles that can be used to identify the most appropriate model structure (including parameter values and responses for a given ecosystem at a given moment in time. These organizing principles may be derived from fundamental physical or biological laws, or from empirical laws that have been demonstrated to be time-invariant and to hold at many places and scales. Much fundamental research remains to be undertaken to help discover these organizing principles on the basis of exploration of observed patterns of landscape structure and hydrological behavior and their interpretation as legacy effects of past co-evolution of climate, soils, topography, vegetation and humans. Our hope is that the new behavioral modeling framework will be a step forward towards a new vision for hydrology where models are capable of more confidently predicting the behavior of catchments beyond what has been observed or experienced before.

  1. Description of the National Hydrologic Model for use with the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Regan, R. Steven; Markstrom, Steven L.; Hay, Lauren E.; Viger, Roland J.; Norton, Parker A.; Driscoll, Jessica M.; LaFontaine, Jacob H.

    2018-01-08

    This report documents several components of the U.S. Geological Survey National Hydrologic Model of the conterminous United States for use with the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS). It provides descriptions of the (1) National Hydrologic Model, (2) Geospatial Fabric for National Hydrologic Modeling, (3) PRMS hydrologic simulation code, (4) parameters and estimation methods used to compute spatially and temporally distributed default values as required by PRMS, (5) National Hydrologic Model Parameter Database, and (6) model extraction tool named Bandit. The National Hydrologic Model Parameter Database contains values for all PRMS parameters used in the National Hydrologic Model. The methods and national datasets used to estimate all the PRMS parameters are described. Some parameter values are derived from characteristics of topography, land cover, soils, geology, and hydrography using traditional Geographic Information System methods. Other parameters are set to long-established default values and computation of initial values. Additionally, methods (statistical, sensitivity, calibration, and algebraic) were developed to compute parameter values on the basis of a variety of nationally-consistent datasets. Values in the National Hydrologic Model Parameter Database can periodically be updated on the basis of new parameter estimation methods and as additional national datasets become available. A companion ScienceBase resource provides a set of static parameter values as well as images of spatially-distributed parameters associated with PRMS states and fluxes for each Hydrologic Response Unit across the conterminuous United States.

  2. Impact of multicollinearity on small sample hydrologic regression models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kroll, Charles N.; Song, Peter

    2013-06-01

    Often hydrologic regression models are developed with ordinary least squares (OLS) procedures. The use of OLS with highly correlated explanatory variables produces multicollinearity, which creates highly sensitive parameter estimators with inflated variances and improper model selection. It is not clear how to best address multicollinearity in hydrologic regression models. Here a Monte Carlo simulation is developed to compare four techniques to address multicollinearity: OLS, OLS with variance inflation factor screening (VIF), principal component regression (PCR), and partial least squares regression (PLS). The performance of these four techniques was observed for varying sample sizes, correlation coefficients between the explanatory variables, and model error variances consistent with hydrologic regional regression models. The negative effects of multicollinearity are magnified at smaller sample sizes, higher correlations between the variables, and larger model error variances (smaller R2). The Monte Carlo simulation indicates that if the true model is known, multicollinearity is present, and the estimation and statistical testing of regression parameters are of interest, then PCR or PLS should be employed. If the model is unknown, or if the interest is solely on model predictions, is it recommended that OLS be employed since using more complicated techniques did not produce any improvement in model performance. A leave-one-out cross-validation case study was also performed using low-streamflow data sets from the eastern United States. Results indicate that OLS with stepwise selection generally produces models across study regions with varying levels of multicollinearity that are as good as biased regression techniques such as PCR and PLS.

  3. Sharing hydrological knowledge: an international comparison of hydrological models in the Meuse River Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bouaziz, Laurène; Sperna Weiland, Frederiek; Drogue, Gilles; Brauer, Claudia; Weerts, Albrecht

    2015-04-01

    International collaboration between institutes and universities working and studying the same transboundary basin is needed for consensus building around possible effects of climate change and climate adaptation measures. Education, experience and expert knowledge of the hydrological community have resulted in the development of a great variety of model concepts, calibration and analysis techniques. Intercomparison could be a first step into consensus modeling or an ensemble based modeling strategy. Besides these practical objectives, such an intercomparison offers the opportunity to explore different ranges of models and learn from each other, hopefully increasing the insight into the hydrological processes that play a role in the transboundary basin. In this experiment, different international research groups applied their rainfall-runoff model in the Ourthe, a Belgium sub-catchment of the Meuse. Data preparation involved the interpolation of hourly precipitation station data collected and owned by the Service Public de Wallonie1 and the freely available E-OBS dataset for daily temperature (Haylock et al., 2008). Daily temperature was disaggregated to hourly values and potential evaporation was derived with the Hargreaves formula. The data was made available to the researchers through an FTP server. The protocol for the modeling involved a split-sample calibration and validation for pre-defined periods. Objective functions for calibration were fixed but the calibration algorithm was a free choice of the research groups. The selection of calibration algorithm was considered model dependent because lumped as well as computationally less efficient distributed models were used. For each model, an ensemble of best performing parameter sets was selected and several performance metrics enabled to assess the models' abilities to simulate discharge. The aim of this experiment is to identify those model components and structures that increase model performance and may best

  4. Modeling the Hydrologic Processes of a Permeable Pavement System

    Science.gov (United States)

    A permeable pavement system can capture stormwater to reduce runoff volume and flow rate, improve onsite groundwater recharge, and enhance pollutant controls within the site. A new unit process model for evaluating the hydrologic performance of a permeable pavement system has be...

  5. Using Modeling Tools to Better Understand Permafrost Hydrology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Clément Fabre

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Modification of the hydrological cycle and, subsequently, of other global cycles is expected in Arctic watersheds owing to global change. Future climate scenarios imply widespread permafrost degradation caused by an increase in air temperature, and the expected effect on permafrost hydrology is immense. This study aims at analyzing, and quantifying the daily water transfer in the largest Arctic river system, the Yenisei River in central Siberia, Russia, partially underlain by permafrost. The semi-distributed SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool hydrological model has been calibrated and validated at a daily time step in historical discharge simulations for the 2003–2014 period. The model parameters have been adjusted to embrace the hydrological features of permafrost. SWAT is shown capable to estimate water fluxes at a daily time step, especially during unfrozen periods, once are considered specific climatic and soils conditions adapted to a permafrost watershed. The model simulates average annual contribution to runoff of 263 millimeters per year (mm yr−1 distributed as 152 mm yr−1 (58% of surface runoff, 103 mm yr−1 (39% of lateral flow and 8 mm yr−1 (3% of return flow from the aquifer. These results are integrated on a reduced basin area downstream from large dams and are closer to observations than previous modeling exercises.

  6. Improving Hydrological Models of The Netherlands Using ALOS PALSAR

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dekker, R.J.; Schuurmans, J.M.; Berendrecht, W.L.; Borren, W.; Ven, T.J.M. van de; Westerhoff, R.S.

    2010-01-01

    In this paper the improvement of the hydrological model metaSWAP of The Netherlands, with respect to soil moisture, is studied using remote sensing data. Therefore we investigate the value of ALOS PALSAR data of 2007 in combination with the method of Dubois et al. [1] for measuring volumetric

  7. A Model for Wetland Hydrology: Description and Validation

    Science.gov (United States)

    R.S. Mansell; S.A. Bloom; Ge Sun

    2000-01-01

    WETLANDS, a multidimensional model describing water flow in variably saturated soil and evapotranspiration, was used to simulate successfully 3-years of local hydrology for a cypress pond located within a relatively flat Coastal Plain pine forest landscape. Assumptions included negligible net regional groundwater flow and radially symmetric local flow impinging on a...

  8. Green roof hydrologic performance and modeling: a review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yanling; Babcock, Roger W

    2014-01-01

    Green roofs reduce runoff from impervious surfaces in urban development. This paper reviews the technical literature on green roof hydrology. Laboratory experiments and field measurements have shown that green roofs can reduce stormwater runoff volume by 30 to 86%, reduce peak flow rate by 22 to 93% and delay the peak flow by 0 to 30 min and thereby decrease pollution, flooding and erosion during precipitation events. However, the effectiveness can vary substantially due to design characteristics making performance predictions difficult. Evaluation of the most recently published study findings indicates that the major factors affecting green roof hydrology are precipitation volume, precipitation dynamics, antecedent conditions, growth medium, plant species, and roof slope. This paper also evaluates the computer models commonly used to simulate hydrologic processes for green roofs, including stormwater management model, soil water atmosphere and plant, SWMS-2D, HYDRUS, and other models that are shown to be effective for predicting precipitation response and economic benefits. The review findings indicate that green roofs are effective for reduction of runoff volume and peak flow, and delay of peak flow, however, no tool or model is available to predict expected performance for any given anticipated system based on design parameters that directly affect green roof hydrology.

  9. Uncertainty propagation in urban hydrology water quality modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Torres Matallana, Arturo; Leopold, U.; Heuvelink, G.B.M.

    2016-01-01

    Uncertainty is often ignored in urban hydrology modelling. Engineering practice typically ignores uncertainties and uncertainty propagation. This can have large impacts, such as the wrong dimensioning of urban drainage systems and the inaccurate estimation of pollution in the environment caused

  10. Hydrological modeling using a multi-site stochastic weather generator

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weather data is usually required at several locations over a large watershed, especially when using distributed models for hydrological simulations. In many applications, spatially correlated weather data can be provided by a multi-site stochastic weather generator which considers the spatial correl...

  11. Application of hydropedological insights in hydrological modelling of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In this paper the output of a digital soil mapping exercise was used as the soil input into a distributed hydrological model (ACRU) for a test site within the Stevenson-Hamilton Research Supersite, Kruger National Park (South ... The outputs evaluated included both streamflow and soil water content at selected soil profiles.

  12. Evaluating hydrological model performance using information theory-based metrics

    Science.gov (United States)

    The accuracy-based model performance metrics not necessarily reflect the qualitative correspondence between simulated and measured streamflow time series. The objective of this work was to use the information theory-based metrics to see whether they can be used as complementary tool for hydrologic m...

  13. Hydrological and hydraulic modelling of the Nyl River floodplain Part ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Catchment land-use and water resource developments may threaten the ecological integrity of the Nyl River floodplain, a world-renowned conservation area. The effect of developments on the water supply regime to the floodplain can be predicted by hydrological modelling, but assessing their ecological consequences ...

  14. In Depth Modeling of Nuclide Transport in the Geosphere and the Biosphere to Reduce Uncertainty (Final Report)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Youn Myoung; Kang, Chul Kyung; Hwang, Yong Soo; Lee, Sung Ho

    2010-08-01

    The Korea Radioactive Waste Management Center (KRMC) is conducting a research on a step by step development of a safety case for the Gyeongju low- and intermediate-level radioactive waste repository (WNEMC; Wolseong Nuclear Environment Management Center). A modeling study and development of a methodology, by which an assessment of safety and performance for a low- and intermediate level radioactive waste (LILW) repository could be effectively made has been carried out. With normal or abnormal nuclide release cases associated with the various FEPs and scenarios involved in the performance of the proposed repository in view of nuclide transport and transfer both in geosphere and biosphere, a total system performance assessment (TSPA) program has been developed by utilizing such commercial development tool programs as GoldSim, AMBER, MASCOT-K, and TOUGH2 in Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute (KAERI) under contract with KRMC. The final project report especially deals much with a detailed conceptual modeling scheme by which a GoldSim program modules, all of which are integrated into a TSPA program template kit as well as the input data set currently available. In-depth system models that are conceptually and rather practically described and then ready for implementing into a GoldSim TSPA program are introduced with plenty of illustrative conceptual schemes and evaluations with data currently available. The GoldSim TSPA tempalte program and the AMBER biosphere tempalte program as well as the TOUGH-2 gas migration template program developed through this project are expected to be successfully applied to the post closure safety assessment required for WNEMC by the regulatory body with increased practicality and much reduced uncertainty and conservatism

  15. Modeling of hydrological processes in arid agricultural regions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiang LI,Xiaomin MAO,Shaozhong KANG,David A. BARRY

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Understanding of hydrological processes, including consideration of interactions between vegetation growth and water transfer in the root zone, underpins efficient use of water resources in arid-zone agriculture. Water transfers take place in the soil-plant-atmosphere continuum, and include groundwater dynamics, unsaturated zone flow, evaporation/transpiration from vegetated/bare soil and surface water, agricultural canal/surface water flow and seepage, and well pumping. Models can be categorized into three classes: (1 regional distributed hydrological models with various land uses, (2 groundwater-soil-plant-atmosphere continuum models that neglect lateral water fluxes, and (3 coupled models with groundwater flow and unsaturated zone water dynamics. This review highlights, in addition, future research challenges in modeling arid-zone agricultural systems, e.g., to effectively assimilate data from remote sensing, and to fully reflect climate change effects at various model scales.

  16. Probabilistic calculations and sensitivity analysis of parameters for a reference biosphere model assessing the potential exposure of a population to radionuclides from a deep geological repository

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Staudt, Christian; Kaiser, Jan Christian [Helmholtz Zentrum Muenchen, Institute of Radiation Protection, Munich (Germany); Proehl, Gerhard [International Atomic Energy Agency, Division of Radiation, Transport and Waste Safety, Wagramerstrasse 5, 1400 Vienna (Austria)

    2014-07-01

    Radioecological models are used to assess the exposure of hypothetical populations to radionuclides. Potential radionuclide sources are deep geological repositories for high level radioactive waste. Assessment time frames are long since releases from those repositories are only expected in the far future, and radionuclide migration to the geosphere biosphere interface will take additional time. Due to the long time frames, climate conditions at the repository site will change, leading to changing exposure pathways and model parameters. To identify climate dependent changes in exposure in the far field of a deep geological repository a range of reference biosphere models representing climate analogues for potential future climate states at a German site were developed. In this approach, model scenarios are developed for different contemporary climate states. It is assumed that the exposure pathways and parameters of the contemporary biosphere in the far field of the repository will change to be similar to those at the analogue sites. Since current climate models cannot predict climate developments over the assessment time frame of 1 million years, analogues for a range of realistically possible future climate conditions were selected. These climate states range from steppe to permafrost climate. As model endpoint Biosphere Dose conversion factors (BDCF) are calculated. The radionuclide specific BDCF describe the exposure of a population to radionuclides entering the biosphere in near surface ground water. The BDCF are subject to uncertainties in the exposure pathways and model parameters. In the presented work, probabilistic and sensitivity analysis was used to assess the influence of model parameter uncertainties on the BDCF and the relevance of individual parameters for the model result. This was done for the long half-live radionuclides Cs-135, I-129 and U-238. In addition to this, BDCF distributions for nine climate reference regions and several scenarios were

  17. Quantification of effective plant rooting depth: advancing global hydrological modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Y.; Donohue, R. J.; McVicar, T.

    2017-12-01

    Plant rooting depth (Zr) is a key parameter in hydrological and biogeochemical models, yet the global spatial distribution of Zr is largely unknown due to the difficulties in its direct measurement. Moreover, Zr observations are usually only representative of a single plant or several plants, which can differ greatly from the effective Zr over a modelling unit (e.g., catchment or grid-box). Here, we provide a global parameterization of an analytical Zr model that balances the marginal carbon cost and benefit of deeper roots, and produce a climatological (i.e., 1982-2010 average) global Zr map. To test the Zr estimates, we apply the estimated Zr in a highly transparent hydrological model (i.e., the Budyko-Choudhury-Porporato (BCP) model) to estimate mean annual actual evapotranspiration (E) across the globe. We then compare the estimated E with both water balance-based E observations at 32 major catchments and satellite grid-box retrievals across the globe. Our results show that the BCP model, when implemented with Zr estimated herein, optimally reproduced the spatial pattern of E at both scales and provides improved model outputs when compared to BCP model results from two already existing global Zr datasets. These results suggest that our Zr estimates can be effectively used in state-of-the-art hydrological models, and potentially biogeochemical models, where the determination of Zr currently largely relies on biome type-based look-up tables.

  18. JAMS - a software platform for modular hydrological modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kralisch, Sven; Fischer, Christian

    2015-04-01

    Current challenges of understanding and assessing the impacts of climate and land use changes on environmental systems demand for an ever-increasing integration of data and process knowledge in corresponding simulation models. Software frameworks that allow for a seamless creation of integrated models based on less complex components (domain models, process simulation routines) have therefore gained increasing attention during the last decade. JAMS is an Open-Source software framework that has been especially designed to cope with the challenges of eco-hydrological modelling. This is reflected by (i) its flexible approach for representing time and space, (ii) a strong separation of process simulation components from the declarative description of more complex models using domain specific XML, (iii) powerful analysis and visualization functions for spatial and temporal input and output data, and (iv) parameter optimization and uncertainty analysis functions commonly used in environmental modelling. Based on JAMS, different hydrological and nutrient-transport simulation models were implemented and successfully applied during the last years. We will present the JAMS core concepts and give an overview of models, simulation components and support tools available for that framework. Sample applications will be used to underline the advantages of component-based model designs and to show how JAMS can be used to address the challenges of integrated hydrological modelling.

  19. eWaterCycle: A global operational hydrological forecasting model

    Science.gov (United States)

    van de Giesen, Nick; Bierkens, Marc; Donchyts, Gennadii; Drost, Niels; Hut, Rolf; Sutanudjaja, Edwin

    2015-04-01

    Development of an operational hyper-resolution hydrological global model is a central goal of the eWaterCycle project (www.ewatercycle.org). This operational model includes ensemble forecasts (14 days) to predict water related stress around the globe. Assimilation of near-real time satellite data is part of the intended product that will be launched at EGU 2015. The challenges come from several directions. First, there are challenges that are mainly computer science oriented but have direct practical hydrological implications. For example, we aim to make use as much as possible of existing standards and open-source software. For example, different parts of our system are coupled through the Basic Model Interface (BMI) developed in the framework of the Community Surface Dynamics Modeling System (CSDMS). The PCR-GLOBWB model, built by Utrecht University, is the basic hydrological model that is the engine of the eWaterCycle project. Re-engineering of parts of the software was needed for it to run efficiently in a High Performance Computing (HPC) environment, and to be able to interface using BMI, and run on multiple compute nodes in parallel. The final aim is to have a spatial resolution of 1km x 1km, which is currently 10 x 10km. This high resolution is computationally not too demanding but very memory intensive. The memory bottleneck becomes especially apparent for data assimilation, for which we use OpenDA. OpenDa allows for different data assimilation techniques without the need to build these from scratch. We have developed a BMI adaptor for OpenDA, allowing OpenDA to use any BMI compatible model. To circumvent memory shortages which would result from standard applications of the Ensemble Kalman Filter, we have developed a variant that does not need to keep all ensemble members in working memory. At EGU, we will present this variant and how it fits well in HPC environments. An important step in the eWaterCycle project was the coupling between the hydrological and

  20. Nuclide documentation. Element specific parameter values used in the biospheric models of the safety assessments SR 97 and SAFE

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Karlsson, Sara; Bergstroem, Ulla

    2002-05-01

    In this report the element and nuclide specific parameter values used in the biospheric models of the safety assessments SR 97 and SAFE are presented. The references used are presented and where necessary the process of estimation of data is described. The parameters treated in this report are distribution coefficients in soil, organic soil and suspended matter in freshwater and brackish water, root uptake factors for pasturage, cereals, root crops and vegetables, bioaccumulation factors for freshwater fish, brackish water fish, freshwater invertebrates and marine water plants, transfer coefficients for transfer to milk and meat, translocation factors and dose coefficients for external exposure, ingestion (age-dependent values) and inhalation (age-dependent values). The radionuclides treated are those which could be of interest in the two safety assessments. Physical data such as half-lives and type of decay are also presented

  1. Nuclide documentation. Element specific parameter values used in the biospheric models of the safety assessments SR 97 and SAFE

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Karlsson, Sara; Bergstroem, Ulla [Studsvik Eco and Safety AB, Nykoeping (Sweden)

    2002-05-01

    In this report the element and nuclide specific parameter values used in the biospheric models of the safety assessments SR 97 and SAFE are presented. The references used are presented and where necessary the process of estimation of data is described. The parameters treated in this report are distribution coefficients in soil, organic soil and suspended matter in freshwater and brackish water, root uptake factors for pasturage, cereals, root crops and vegetables, bioaccumulation factors for freshwater fish, brackish water fish, freshwater invertebrates and marine water plants, transfer coefficients for transfer to milk and meat, translocation factors and dose coefficients for external exposure, ingestion (age-dependent values) and inhalation (age-dependent values). The radionuclides treated are those which could be of interest in the two safety assessments. Physical data such as half-lives and type of decay are also presented.

  2. Integrated climate and hydrology modelling - Coupling of the HIRHAM regional climate model and the MIKE SHE hydrological model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dahl Larsen, M.A. [Technical Univ. of Denmark. DTU Management Engineering, DTU Risoe Campus, Roskilde (Denmark)

    2013-10-15

    To ensure optimal management and sustainable strategies for water resources, infrastructures, food production and ecosystems there is a need for an improved understanding of feedback and interaction mechanisms between the atmosphere and the land surface. This is especially true in light of expected global warming and increased frequency of extreme events. The skill in developing projections of both the present and future climate depends essentially on the ability to numerically simulate the processes of atmospheric circulation, hydrology, energy and ecology. Previous modelling efforts of climate and hydrology have used each model component in an offline mode where the models are run in sequential steps and one model serves as a boundary condition or data input source to the other. Within recent years a new field of research has emerged where efforts have been made to dynamically couple existing climate and hydrology models to more directly include the interaction between the atmosphere and the land surface. The present PhD study is motivated by an ambition of developing and applying a modelling tool capable of including the interaction and feedback mechanisms between the atmosphere and the land surface. The modelling tool consists of a fully dynamic two-way coupling of the HIRHAM regional climate model and the MIKE SHE hydrological model. The expected gain is twofold. Firstly, HIRHAM utilizes the land surface component of the combined MIKE SHE/SWET hydrology and land surface model (LSM), which is superior to the LSM in HIRHAM. A wider range of processes are included at the land surface, subsurface flow is distributed in three dimensions and the temporal and spatial resolution is higher. Secondly, the feedback mechanisms of e.g. soil moisture and precipitation between the two models are included. The preparation of the HIRHAM and MIKE SHE models for the coupled study revealed several findings. The performance of HIRHAM was highly affected by the domain size, domain

  3. BIOPROTA Key Issues in Biosphere Aspects of Assessment of the Long-term Impact of Contaminant Releases Associated with Radioactive Waste Management. Theme 2: Task 7: Modelling Processes in the Geosphere Biosphere Interface Zone

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pinedo, P.; Smith, G.; Aguero, A.; Albrecht, A.; Bath, A.; Benhabderrahmane, H.; Van Dorp, F.; Kautsky, U.; Klos, R.; Laciok, A.; Milodowski, T.; Selroos, J.O.; Simon, I.; Texier, D.; Thorne, M.; Willans, M.

    2005-01-01

    This document reports on BIOPROTA Theme 2, task 7 which investigated modelling processes in the geosphere- biosphere interface zone (GBIZ) during performance assessments. Modelling issues in the treatment of the GBIZ are identified. A large proportion of the identified issues concern modelling radionuclide behaviour in near surface aquifers which are subject to relatively high gradients in chemical and other conditions. Other key issues concern transfer of radionuclides through the unsaturated zone above aquifers, bearing in mind the scope for erosion and variations in the level of the phreatic surface and also the consideration of environmental change. A number of research areas are highlighted that are aimed at addressing each of the identified issues in the treatment of GBIZ. These include (i) Developing of a current statement of continuing problems, and hence clarify and justify the need to do more; (ii) Conducting a review of site investigations as they have been done already, and determine whether they meet performance assessment requirements; (iii) Identifying scenarios and FEPs considered in current treatments; and, (iv) Conducting source-pathway-receptor analysis to demonstrate comprehensiveness of the overall scenario identification process. The objectives of these activities would be to determine the potential to reduce uncertainties and/or conservative assumptions in assessment of radionuclide transfer from the geosphere to biosphere domains, taking account of environmental change; and to develop guidance on site-characterisation needs at different types of site, as regards the near-surface features. (Author) 23 refs

  4. BIOPROTA Key Issues in Biosphere Aspects of Assessment of the Long-term Impact of Contaminant Releases Associated with Radioactive Waste Management Theme 2: Task 7:Modelling Processes in the Geosphere Biosphere Interface Zone

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pinedo, P.; Smith, G.; Aguero, A.; Albrecht, A.; Bath, A.; Benhabderrahmane, H.; Van Dorp, F.; Kautsky, U.; Klos, R.; Laciok, A.; Milodowski, T.; Selroos, J.O.; Simon, I.; Texier, D.; Thorne, M.; Willans, M.

    2005-07-01

    This document reports on BIOPROTA Theme 2, task 7 which investigated modelling processes in the geosphere- biosphere interface zone (GBIZ) during performance assessments. Modelling issues in the treatment of the GBIZ are identified. A large proportion of the identified issues concern modelling radionuclide behaviour in near surface aquifers which are subject to relatively high gradients in chemical and other conditions. Other key issues concern transfer of radionuclides through the unsaturated zone above aquifers, bearing in mind the scope for erosion and variations in the level of the phreatic surface and also the consideration of environmental change. A number of research areas are highlighted that are aimed at addressing each of the identified issues in the treatment of GBIZ. These include (i) Developing of a current statement of continuing problems, and hence clarify and justify the need to do more; (ii) Conducting a review of site investigations as they have been done already, and determine whether they meet performance assessment requirements; (iii) Identifying scenarios and FEPs considered in current treatments; and, (iv) Conducting source-pathway-receptor analysis to demonstrate comprehensiveness of the overall scenario identification process. The objectives of these activities would be to determine the potential to reduce uncertainties and/or conservative assumptions in assessment of radionuclide transfer from the geosphere to biosphere domains, taking account of environmental change; and to develop guidance on site-characterisation needs at different types of site, as regards the near-surface features. (Author) 23 refs.

  5. Different methods for spatial interpolation of rainfall data for operational hydrology and hydrological modeling at watershed scale: a review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ly, S.

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Watershed management and hydrological modeling require data related to the very important matter of precipitation, often measured using raingages or weather stations. Hydrological models often require a preliminary spatial interpolation as part of the modeling process. The success of spatial interpolation varies according to the type of model chosen, its mode of geographical management and the resolution used. The quality of a result is determined by the quality of the continuous spatial rainfall, which ensues from the interpolation method used. The objective of this article is to review the existing methods for interpolation of rainfall data that are usually required in hydrological modeling. We review the basis for the application of certain common methods and geostatistical approaches used in interpolation of rainfall. Previous studies have highlighted the need for new research to investigate ways of improving the quality of rainfall data and ultimately, the quality of hydrological modeling.

  6. Long Memory Models to Generate Synthetic Hydrological Series

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guilherme Armando de Almeida Pereira

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In Brazil, much of the energy production comes from hydroelectric plants whose planning is not trivial due to the strong dependence on rainfall regimes. This planning is accomplished through optimization models that use inputs such as synthetic hydrologic series generated from the statistical model PAR(p (periodic autoregressive. Recently, Brazil began the search for alternative models able to capture the effects that the traditional model PAR(p does not incorporate, such as long memory effects. Long memory in a time series can be defined as a significant dependence between lags separated by a long period of time. Thus, this research develops a study of the effects of long dependence in the series of streamflow natural energy in the South subsystem, in order to estimate a long memory model capable of generating synthetic hydrologic series.

  7. Olkiluoto biosphere description 2006

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haapanen, R.; Aro, L.; Ilvesniemi, H.; Kareinen, T.; Kirkkala, T.; Mykrae, S.; Turkki, H.; Lahdenperae, A.-M.; Ikonen, A.T.K.

    2007-02-01

    This report summarises the current knowledge of the biosphere of Olkiluoto, and it is the first Biosphere Description Report. The elements considered were climate, topography, land use, overburden, terrestrial vegetation and fauna and sea flora, fauna and water. The principal aim was to present a synthesis of the present state (now to 2020) and the main features of past evolution of the biosphere at the site using currently available data. The lack of site specific parameters and their importance was discussed. Conceptual ecosystem models are presented for land and sea. Currently available data made it possible to calculate the biomass of the terrestrial vegetation and further convert it to carbon. In the case of terrestrial animals, preliminary figures are given for moose alone due to lack of sitespecific data. For the same reason, the sea ecosystem model was not quantified within this work. The ecosystems on Olkiluoto do not deviate from the surrounding areas. Since mires are few on Olkiluoto, forests are the most important land ecosystem. However, coastal areas are the transition zones between land and sea, and also potential sites for deep groundwater discharge. The major interest concerning aquatic ecosystems was laid on four future lakes potentially developing from the sea due to the land up-lift. Current sea sediments near Olkiluoto are future land areas, and thus very important. Spatially, the forest ecosystems of Olkiluoto are now most comprehensively covered, while the temporal coverage is highest in sea ecosystems. Lack of data is greatest in terrestrial fauna and sea sediments. During this work, the system boundaries were crossed and the use of data over disciplines was started. The data were mostly in agreement, but some discrepancies were detected. To solve these, and to supplement the existing data, some recommendations were given. (orig.)

  8. Using a lumped conceptual hydrological model for five different catchments in Sweden

    OpenAIRE

    Ekenberg, Madeleine

    2016-01-01

    Hydrological models offer powerful tools for understanding and predicting. In this thesis we havereviewed the advantages and disadvantages of physically based distributed hydrological models andconceptually lumped hydrological models. Based on that review, we went into depth and developed aMATLAB code to test if a simple conceptual lumped hydrological model, namely GR2M, wouldperform satisfactory for five different catchments in different parts of Sweden. The model had ratherunsatisfactory re...

  9. Hydrology in a Mediterranean mountain environment, the Vallcebre Research basins (North Eastern Spain). IV. Testing hydrological and erosion models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gallart, F.; Latron, J.; Llorens, P.; Martinez-Carreras, N.

    2009-01-01

    Three modelling exercises were carried out in the Vallcebre research basins in order to both improve the understanding of the hydrological processes and test the adequate of some models in such Mediterranean mountain conditions. These exercises consisted of i) the analysis of the hydrological role of the agricultural terraces using the TOPMODEL topographic index, ii) the parametrisation of TOPMODEL using internal basin information, and iii) a test of the erosion model KINEROS2 for simulating badlands erosion. (Author) 13 refs.

  10. Intensive precipitation observation greatly improves hydrological modelling of the poorly gauged high mountain Mabengnong catchment in the Tibetan Plateau

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Li; Zhang, Fan; Zhang, Hongbo; Scott, Christopher A.; Zeng, Chen; Shi, Xiaonan

    2018-01-01

    Precipitation is one of the most critical inputs for models used to improve understanding of hydrological processes. In high mountain areas, it is challenging to generate a reliable precipitation data set capturing the spatial and temporal heterogeneity due to the harsh climate, extreme terrain and the lack of observations. This study conducts intensive observation of precipitation in the Mabengnong catchment in the southeast of the Tibetan Plateau during July to August 2013. Because precipitation is greatly influenced by altitude, the observed data are used to characterize the precipitation gradient (PG) and hourly distribution (HD), showing that the average PG is 0.10, 0.28 and 0.26 mm/d/100 m and the average duration is around 0.1, 0.8 and 5.2 h for trace, light and moderate rain, respectively. A distributed biosphere hydrological model based on water and energy budgets with improved physical process for snow (WEB-DHM-S) is applied to simulate the hydrological processes with gridded precipitation data derived from a lower altitude meteorological station and the PG and HD characterized for the study area. The observed runoff, MODIS/Terra snow cover area (SCA) data, and MODIS/Terra land surface temperature (LST) data are used for model calibration and validation. Runoff, SCA and LST simulations all show reasonable results. Sensitivity analyses illustrate that runoff is largely underestimated without considering PG, indicating that short-term intensive precipitation observation has the potential to greatly improve hydrological modelling of poorly gauged high mountain catchments.

  11. Hydrological modelling of the Mabengnong catchment in the southeast Tibet with support of short term intensive precipitation observation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, L.; Zhang, F.; Zhang, H.; Scott, C. A.; Zeng, C.; SHI, X.

    2017-12-01

    Precipitation is one of the crucial inputs for models used to better understand hydrological processes. In high mountain areas, it is a difficult task to obtain a reliable precipitation data set describing the spatial and temporal characteristic due to the limited meteorological observations and high variability of precipitation. This study carries out intensive observation of precipitation in a high mountain catchment in the southeast of the Tibet during July to August 2013. According to the rain gauges set up at different altitudes, it is found that precipitation is greatly influenced by altitude. The observed precipitation is used to depict the precipitation gradient (PG) and hourly distribution (HD), showing that the average duration is around 0.1, 0.8 and 6.0 hours and the average PG is 0.10, 0.28 and 0.26 mm/d/100m for trace, light and moderate rain, respectively. Based on the gridded precipitation derived from the PG and HD and the nearby Linzhi meteorological station at lower altitude, a distributed biosphere hydrological model based on water and energy budgets (WEB-DHM) is applied to simulate the hydrological processes. Beside the observed runoff, MODIS/Terra snow cover area (SCA) data, and MODIS/Terra land surface temperature (LST) data are also used for model calibration and validation. The resulting runoff, SCA and LST simulations are all reasonable. Sensitivity analyses indicate that runoff is greatly underestimated without considering PG, illustrating that short-term intensive precipitation observation contributes to improving hydrological modelling of poorly gauged high mountain catchments.

  12. Flash flood modeling with the MARINE hydrological distributed model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Estupina-Borrell, V.; Dartus, D.; Ababou, R.

    2006-11-01

    Flash floods are characterized by their violence and the rapidity of their occurrence. Because these events are rare and unpredictable, but also fast and intense, their anticipation with sufficient lead time for warning and broadcasting is a primary subject of research. Because of the heterogeneities of the rain and of the behavior of the surface, spatially distributed hydrological models can lead to a better understanding of the processes and so on they can contribute to a better forecasting of flash flood. Our main goal here is to develop an operational and robust methodology for flash flood forecasting. This methodology should provide relevant data (information) about flood evolution on short time scales, and should be applicable even in locations where direct observations are sparse (e.g. absence of historical and modern rainfalls and streamflows in small mountainous watersheds). The flash flood forecast is obtained by the physically based, space-time distributed hydrological model "MARINE'' (Model of Anticipation of Runoff and INondations for Extreme events). This model is presented and tested in this paper for a real flash flood event. The model consists in two steps, or two components: the first component is a "basin'' flood module which generates flood runoff in the upstream part of the watershed, and the second component is the "stream network'' module, which propagates the flood in the main river and its subsidiaries. The basin flash flood generation model is a rainfall-runoff model that can integrate remotely sensed data. Surface hydraulics equations are solved with enough simplifying hypotheses to allow real time exploitation. The minimum data required by the model are: (i) the Digital Elevation Model, used to calculate slopes that generate runoff, it can be issued from satellite imagery (SPOT) or from French Geographical Institute (IGN); (ii) the rainfall data from meteorological radar, observed or anticipated by the French Meteorological Service (M

  13. Disruptive Event Biosphere Dose Conversion Factor Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    M. A. Wasiolek

    2003-07-21

    This analysis report, ''Disruptive Event Biosphere Dose Conversion Factor Analysis'', is one of the technical reports containing documentation of the ERMYN (Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain Nevada) biosphere model for the geologic repository at Yucca Mountain, its input parameters, and the application of the model to perform the dose assessment for the repository. The biosphere model is one of a series of process models supporting the Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) for the Yucca Mountain repository. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows the interrelationships among the products (i.e., analysis and model reports) developed for biosphere modeling and provides an understanding of how this analysis report contributes to biosphere modeling. This report is one of the two reports that develop biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs), which are input parameters for the TSPA model. The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2003 [DIRS 164186]) describes in detail the conceptual model as well as the mathematical model and lists its input parameters. Model input parameters are developed and described in detail in five analysis report (BSC 2003 [DIRS 160964], BSC 2003 [DIRS 160965], BSC 2003 [DIRS 160976], BSC 2003 [DIRS 161239], and BSC 2003 [DIRS 161241]). The objective of this analysis was to develop the BDCFs for the volcanic ash exposure scenario and the dose factors (DFs) for calculating inhalation doses during volcanic eruption (eruption phase of the volcanic event). The volcanic ash exposure scenario is hereafter referred to as the volcanic ash scenario. For the volcanic ash scenario, the mode of radionuclide release into the biosphere is a volcanic eruption through the repository with the resulting entrainment of contaminated waste in the tephra and the subsequent atmospheric transport and dispersion of contaminated material in

  14. Disruptive Event Biosphere Dose Conversion Factor Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    M. A. Wasiolek

    2003-01-01

    This analysis report, ''Disruptive Event Biosphere Dose Conversion Factor Analysis'', is one of the technical reports containing documentation of the ERMYN (Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain Nevada) biosphere model for the geologic repository at Yucca Mountain, its input parameters, and the application of the model to perform the dose assessment for the repository. The biosphere model is one of a series of process models supporting the Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) for the Yucca Mountain repository. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows the interrelationships among the products (i.e., analysis and model reports) developed for biosphere modeling and provides an understanding of how this analysis report contributes to biosphere modeling. This report is one of the two reports that develop biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs), which are input parameters for the TSPA model. The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2003 [DIRS 164186]) describes in detail the conceptual model as well as the mathematical model and lists its input parameters. Model input parameters are developed and described in detail in five analysis report (BSC 2003 [DIRS 160964], BSC 2003 [DIRS 160965], BSC 2003 [DIRS 160976], BSC 2003 [DIRS 161239], and BSC 2003 [DIRS 161241]). The objective of this analysis was to develop the BDCFs for the volcanic ash exposure scenario and the dose factors (DFs) for calculating inhalation doses during volcanic eruption (eruption phase of the volcanic event). The volcanic ash exposure scenario is hereafter referred to as the volcanic ash scenario. For the volcanic ash scenario, the mode of radionuclide release into the biosphere is a volcanic eruption through the repository with the resulting entrainment of contaminated waste in the tephra and the subsequent atmospheric transport and dispersion of contaminated material in the biosphere. The biosphere process

  15. Selection of Hydrological Model for Waterborne Release

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blanchard, A.

    1999-01-01

    This evaluation will aid in determining the potential impacts of liquid releases to downstream populations on the Savannah River. The purpose of this report is to evaluate the two available models and determine the appropriate model for use in following waterborne release analyses. Additionally, this report will document the Design Basis and Beyond Design Basis accidents to be used in the future study

  16. The biosphere rules.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Unruh, Gregory C

    2008-02-01

    Sustainability, defined by natural scientists as the capacity of healthy ecosystems to function indefinitely, has become a clarion call for business. Leading companies have taken high-profile steps toward achieving it: Wal-Mart, for example, with its efforts to reduce packaging waste, and Nike, which has removed toxic chemicals from its shoes. But, says Unruh, the director of Thunderbird's Lincoln Center for Ethics in Global Management, sustainability is more than an endless journey of incremental steps. It is a destination, for which the biosphere of planet Earth--refined through billions of years of trial and error--is a perfect model. Unruh distills some lessons from the biosphere into three rules: Use a parsimonious palette. Managers can rethink their sourcing strategies and dramatically simplify the number and types of materials their companies use in production, making recycling cost-effective. After the furniture manufacturer Herman Miller discovered that its leading desk chair had 200 components made from more than 800 chemical compounds, it designed an award-winning successor whose far more limited materials palette is 96% recyclable. Cycle up, virtuously. Manufacturers should design recovery value into their products at the outset. Shaw Industries, for example, recycles the nylon fiber from its worn-out carpet into brand-new carpet tile. Exploit the power of platforms. Platform design in industry tends to occur at the component level--but the materials in those components constitute a more fundamental platform. Patagonia, by recycling Capilene brand performance underwear, has achieved energy costs 76% below those for virgin sourcing. Biosphere rules can teach companies how to build ecologically friendly products that both reduce manufacturing costs and prove highly attractive to consumers. And managers need not wait for a green technological revolution to implement them.

  17. Modeling of subglacial hydrological development following rapid supraglacial lake drainage

    OpenAIRE

    Dow, C F; Kulessa, B; Rutt, I C; Tsai, V C; Pimentel, S; Doyle, S H; van As, D; Lindb?ck, K; Pettersson, R; Jones, G A; Hubbard, A

    2015-01-01

    The rapid drainage of supraglacial lakes injects substantial volumes of water to the bed of the Greenland ice sheet over short timescales. The effect of these water pulses on the development of basal hydrological systems is largely unknown. To address this, we develop a lake drainage model incorporating both (1) a subglacial radial flux element driven by elastic hydraulic jacking and (2) downstream drainage through a linked channelized and distributed system. Here we present the model and exa...

  18. Is there a need for hydrological modelling in decision support systems for nuclear emergencies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Raskob, W.; Heling, R.; Zheleznyak, M.

    2004-01-01

    This paper discusses the role of hydrological modelling in decision support systems for nuclear emergencies. In particular, most recent developments such as, the radionuclide transport models integrated in to the decision support system RODOS will be explored. Recent progress in the implementation of physically-based distributed hydrological models for operational forecasting in national and supranational centres, may support a closer cooperation between national hydrological services and therefore, strengthen the use of hydrological and radiological models implemented in decision support systems. (authors)

  19. Effect of Using Extreme Years in Hydrologic Model Calibration Performance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goktas, R. K.; Tezel, U.; Kargi, P. G.; Ayvaz, T.; Tezyapar, I.; Mesta, B.; Kentel, E.

    2017-12-01

    Hydrological models are useful in predicting and developing management strategies for controlling the system behaviour. Specifically they can be used for evaluating streamflow at ungaged catchments, effect of climate change, best management practices on water resources, or identification of pollution sources in a watershed. This study is a part of a TUBITAK project named "Development of a geographical information system based decision-making tool for water quality management of Ergene Watershed using pollutant fingerprints". Within the scope of this project, first water resources in Ergene Watershed is studied. Streamgages found in the basin are identified and daily streamflow measurements are obtained from State Hydraulic Works of Turkey. Streamflow data is analysed using box-whisker plots, hydrographs and flow-duration curves focusing on identification of extreme periods, dry or wet. Then a hydrological model is developed for Ergene Watershed using HEC-HMS in the Watershed Modeling System (WMS) environment. The model is calibrated for various time periods including dry and wet ones and the performance of calibration is evaluated using Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE), correlation coefficient, percent bias (PBIAS) and root mean square error. It is observed that calibration period affects the model performance, and the main purpose of the development of the hydrological model should guide calibration period selection. Acknowledgement: This study is funded by The Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey (TUBITAK) under Project Number 115Y064.

  20. Integrating hydrologic modeling web services with online data sharing to prepare, store, and execute models in hydrology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gan, T.; Tarboton, D. G.; Dash, P. K.; Gichamo, T.; Horsburgh, J. S.

    2017-12-01

    Web based apps, web services and online data and model sharing technology are becoming increasingly available to support research. This promises benefits in terms of collaboration, platform independence, transparency and reproducibility of modeling workflows and results. However, challenges still exist in real application of these capabilities and the programming skills researchers need to use them. In this research we combined hydrologic modeling web services with an online data and model sharing system to develop functionality to support reproducible hydrologic modeling work. We used HydroDS, a system that provides web services for input data preparation and execution of a snowmelt model, and HydroShare, a hydrologic information system that supports the sharing of hydrologic data, model and analysis tools. To make the web services easy to use, we developed a HydroShare app (based on the Tethys platform) to serve as a browser based user interface for HydroDS. In this integration, HydroDS receives web requests from the HydroShare app to process the data and execute the model. HydroShare supports storage and sharing of the results generated by HydroDS web services. The snowmelt modeling example served as a use case to test and evaluate this approach. We show that, after the integration, users can prepare model inputs or execute the model through the web user interface of the HydroShare app without writing program code. The model input/output files and metadata describing the model instance are stored and shared in HydroShare. These files include a Python script that is automatically generated by the HydroShare app to document and reproduce the model input preparation workflow. Once stored in HydroShare, inputs and results can be shared with other users, or published so that other users can directly discover, repeat or modify the modeling work. This approach provides a collaborative environment that integrates hydrologic web services with a data and model sharing

  1. On the role of model structure in hydrological modeling : Understanding models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gharari, S.

    2016-01-01

    Modeling is an essential part of the science of hydrology. Models enable us to formulate what we know and perceive from the real world into a neat package. Rainfall-runoff models are abstract simplifications of how a catchment works. Within the research field of scientific rainfall-runoff modeling,

  2. Database description for the biosphere code BIOMOD

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kane, P.; Thorne, M.C.; Coughtrey, P.J.

    1983-03-01

    The development of a biosphere model for use in comparative radiological assessments of UK low and intermediate level waste repositories is discussed. The nature, content and sources of data contained in the four files that comprise the database for the biosphere code BIOMOD are described. (author)

  3. Integrated hydrological modelling of the North China Plain

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Shu, Yunqiao; Villholth, Karen G.; Jensen, Karsten Høgh

    2012-01-01

    The integrated hydrological model MIKE SHE was applied to a part of the North China Plain to examine the dynamics of the hydrological system and to assess water management options to restore depleted groundwater resources. The model simulates the spatio-temporal distribution of recharge...... for scenario analysis of the effect of different cropping rotations, irrigation intensity, and other water management options, like the implementation of the South to North Water Transfer (SNWT) project. The model analysis verified that groundwater tables in the region are subject to steep declines (up to 1 m....../yr) due to decades of intensive exploitation of the groundwater resources for crop irrigation, primarily the widespread crop rotation of irrigated winter wheat and mostly rainfed summer maize. The SNWT project mitigates water stress in Shijiazhuang city and areas adjacent to wastewater canals but cannot...

  4. The application of remote sensing to the development and formulation of hydrologic planning models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fowler, T. R.; Castruccio, P. A.; Loats, H. L., Jr.

    1977-01-01

    The development of a remote sensing model and its efficiency in determining parameters of hydrologic models are reviewed. Procedures for extracting hydrologic data from LANDSAT imagery, and the visual analysis of composite imagery are presented. A hydrologic planning model is developed and applied to determine seasonal variations in watershed conditions. The transfer of this technology to a user community and contract arrangements are discussed.

  5. Evaluation of drought propagation in an ensemble mean of large-scale hydrological models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Loon, van A.F.; Huijgevoort, van M.H.J.; Lanen, van H.A.J.

    2012-01-01

    Hydrological drought is increasingly studied using large-scale models. It is, however, not sure whether large-scale models reproduce the development of hydrological drought correctly. The pressing question is how well do large-scale models simulate the propagation from meteorological to hydrological

  6. Modeled hydrologic metrics show links between hydrology and the functional composition of stream assemblages.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patrick, Christopher J; Yuan, Lester L

    2017-07-01

    Flow alteration is widespread in streams, but current understanding of the effects of differences in flow characteristics on stream biological communities is incomplete. We tested hypotheses about the effect of variation in hydrology on stream communities by using generalized additive models to relate watershed information to the values of different flow metrics at gauged sites. Flow models accounted for 54-80% of the spatial variation in flow metric values among gauged sites. We then used these models to predict flow metrics in 842 ungauged stream sites in the mid-Atlantic United States that were sampled for fish, macroinvertebrates, and environmental covariates. Fish and macroinvertebrate assemblages were characterized in terms of a suite of metrics that quantified aspects of community composition, diversity, and functional traits that were expected to be associated with differences in flow characteristics. We related modeled flow metrics to biological metrics in a series of stressor-response models. Our analyses identified both drying and base flow instability as explaining 30-50% of the observed variability in fish and invertebrate community composition. Variations in community composition were related to variations in the prevalence of dispersal traits in invertebrates and trophic guilds in fish. The results demonstrate that we can use statistical models to predict hydrologic conditions at bioassessment sites, which, in turn, we can use to estimate relationships between flow conditions and biological characteristics. This analysis provides an approach to quantify the effects of spatial variation in flow metrics using readily available biomonitoring data. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

  7. Selection of Hydrological Model for Waterborne Release

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blanchard, A.

    1999-01-01

    Following a request from the States of South Carolina and Georgia, downstream radiological consequences from postulated accidental aqueous releases at the three Savannah River Site nonreactor nuclear facilities will be examined. This evaluation will aid in determining the potential impacts of liquid releases to downstream populations on the Savannah River. The purpose of this report is to evaluate the two available models and determine the appropriate model for use in following waterborne release analyses. Additionally, this report will document the accidents to be used in the future study

  8. The Biosphere: A Decadal Vision

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peterson, David L.; Curran, Paul J.; Mlynzcak, Marty; Miller, Richard

    2003-01-01

    This paper focuses on biosphere-climate interactions including the influences of human activities. Recognizing this is only one aspect of biospheric processes, this places an emphasis of those biogeochemical processes that have a profound effect on numerous other aspects of the biosphere and the services it provides, services which are critical to sustaining life on Earth. And, the paper will focus on the various scientific aspects of assessing the availability of fresh water, including its sensitivity to climate variance and land use changes. Finally, this paper hopes to emphasize the potential role that greatly expanded space observations and interactive modeling can play in developing our understanding of Earth and its the living systems.

  9. eWaterCycle: A high resolution global hydrological model

    Science.gov (United States)

    van de Giesen, Nick; Bierkens, Marc; Drost, Niels; Hut, Rolf; Sutanudjaja, Edwin

    2014-05-01

    In 2013, the eWaterCycle project was started, which has the ambitious goal to run a high resolution global hydrological model. Starting point was the PCR-GLOBWB built by Utrecht University. The software behind this model will partially be re-engineered in order to enable to run it in a High Performance Computing (HPC) environment. The aim is to have a spatial resolution of 1km x 1km. The idea is also to run the model in real-time and forecasting mode, using data assimilation. An on-demand hydraulic model will be available for detailed flow and flood forecasting in support of navigation and disaster management. The project faces a set of scientific challenges. First, to enable the model to run in a HPC environment, model runs were analyzed to examine on which parts of the program most CPU time was spent. These parts were re-coded in Open MPI to allow for parallel processing. Different parallelization strategies are thinkable. In our case, it was decided to use watershed logic as a first step to distribute the analysis. There is rather limited recent experience with HPC in hydrology and there is much to be learned and adjusted, both on the hydrological modeling side and the computer science side. For example, an interesting early observation was that hydrological models are, due to their localized parameterization, much more memory intensive than models of sister-disciplines such as meteorology and oceanography. Because it would be deadly to have to swap information between CPU and hard drive, memory management becomes crucial. A standard Ensemble Kalman Filter (enKF) would, for example, have excessive memory demands. To circumvent these problems, an alternative to the enKF was developed that produces equivalent results. This presentation shows the most recent results from the model, including a 5km x 5km simulation and a proof of concept for the new data assimilation approach. Finally, some early ideas about financial sustainability of an operational global

  10. An improved land biosphere module for use in the DCESS Earth system model (version 1.1 with application to the last glacial termination

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Eichinger

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Interactions between the land biosphere and the atmosphere play an important role for the Earth's carbon cycle and thus should be considered in studies of global carbon cycling and climate. Simple approaches are a useful first step in this direction but may not be applicable for certain climatic conditions. To improve the ability of the reduced-complexity Danish Center for Earth System Science (DCESS Earth system model DCESS to address cold climate conditions, we reformulated the model's land biosphere module by extending it to include three dynamically varying vegetation zones as well as a permafrost component. The vegetation zones are formulated by emulating the behaviour of a complex land biosphere model. We show that with the new module, the size and timing of carbon exchanges between atmosphere and land are represented more realistically in cooling and warming experiments. In particular, we use the new module to address carbon cycling and climate change across the last glacial transition. Within the constraints provided by various proxy data records, we tune the DCESS model to a Last Glacial Maximum state and then conduct transient sensitivity experiments across the transition under the application of explicit transition functions for high-latitude ocean exchange, atmospheric dust, and the land ice sheet extent. We compare simulated time evolutions of global mean temperature, pCO2, atmospheric and oceanic carbon isotopes as well as ocean dissolved oxygen concentrations with proxy data records. In this way we estimate the importance of different processes across the transition with emphasis on the role of land biosphere variations and show that carbon outgassing from permafrost and uptake of carbon by the land biosphere broadly compensate for each other during the temperature rise of the early last deglaciation.

  11. An international peer review of the biosphere modelling programme of the US Department of Energy's Yucca mountain site characterization project. Report of the IAEA International Review Team

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-04-01

    The United States Department of Energy (DOE) has a project for characterizing the site of a facility for disposing of radioactive waste located at Yucca Mountain Nevada, USA (the Yucca Mountain Site Characterization Project). This Project has developed an approach for assessing the future potential impact of any releases of radionuclides to the biosphere from a potential disposal facility sited at Yucca Mountain The DOE requested the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to organize an independent international expert review of the assessment methodology being used in its biosphere modelling programme. The IAEA accepted the request in the context of its statutory obligation to provide for the application of its established international standards of safety for the protection of health, at the request of a State, to any of that State's activities in the field of atomic energy. The terms of reference of the peer review were to review the biosphere assessment methodology being used for the total system performance assessment of the potential disposal facility. The main purpose was to analyze critically the proposed rationale and methodology and to identify consistencies and inconsistencies between methods being used in the frame of the Project and those established in international standards or in international programmes such as the IAEA's Biosphere Modelling and Assessment Programme (BIOMASS). This report presents the consensus view of the international experts convened by the IAEA for carrying out the review

  12. Challenging terrestrial biosphere models with data from the long-term multifactor Prairie Heating and CO2 Enrichment experiment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Kauwe, Martin G; Medlyn, Belinda E; Walker, Anthony P; Zaehle, Sönke; Asao, Shinichi; Guenet, Bertrand; Harper, Anna B; Hickler, Thomas; Jain, Atul K; Luo, Yiqi; Lu, Xingjie; Luus, Kristina; Parton, William J; Shu, Shijie; Wang, Ying-Ping; Werner, Christian; Xia, Jianyang; Pendall, Elise; Morgan, Jack A; Ryan, Edmund M; Carrillo, Yolima; Dijkstra, Feike A; Zelikova, Tamara J; Norby, Richard J

    2017-09-01

    Multifactor experiments are often advocated as important for advancing terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs), yet to date, such models have only been tested against single-factor experiments. We applied 10 TBMs to the multifactor Prairie Heating and CO 2 Enrichment (PHACE) experiment in Wyoming, USA. Our goals were to investigate how multifactor experiments can be used to constrain models and to identify a road map for model improvement. We found models performed poorly in ambient conditions; there was a wide spread in simulated above-ground net primary productivity (range: 31-390 g C m -2  yr -1 ). Comparison with data highlighted model failures particularly with respect to carbon allocation, phenology, and the impact of water stress on phenology. Performance against the observations from single-factors treatments was also relatively poor. In addition, similar responses were predicted for different reasons across models: there were large differences among models in sensitivity to water stress and, among the N cycle models, N availability during the experiment. Models were also unable to capture observed treatment effects on phenology: they overestimated the effect of warming on leaf onset and did not allow CO 2 -induced water savings to extend the growing season length. Observed interactive (CO 2  × warming) treatment effects were subtle and contingent on water stress, phenology, and species composition. As the models did not correctly represent these processes under ambient and single-factor conditions, little extra information was gained by comparing model predictions against interactive responses. We outline a series of key areas in which this and future experiments could be used to improve model predictions of grassland responses to global change. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  13. Regionalization Study of Satellite based Hydrological Model (SHM) in Hydrologically Homogeneous River Basins of India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumari, Babita; Paul, Pranesh Kumar; Singh, Rajendra; Mishra, Ashok; Gupta, Praveen Kumar; Singh, Raghvendra P.

    2017-04-01

    A new semi-distributed conceptual hydrological model, namely Satellite based Hydrological Model (SHM), has been developed under 'PRACRITI-2' program of Space Application Centre (SAC), Ahmedabad for sustainable water resources management of India by using data from Indian Remote Sensing satellites. Entire India is divided into 5km x 5km grid cells and properties at the center of the cells are assumed to represent the property of the cells. SHM contains five modules namely surface water, forest, snow, groundwater and routing. Two empirical equations (SCS-CN and Hargreaves) and water balance method have been used in the surface water module; the forest module is based on the calculations of water balancing & dynamics of subsurface. 2-D Boussinesq equation is used for groundwater modelling which is solved using implicit finite-difference. The routing module follows a distributed routing approach which requires flow path and network with the key point of travel time estimation. The aim of this study is to evaluate the performance of SHM using regionalization technique which also checks the usefulness of a model in data scarce condition or for ungauged basins. However, homogeneity analysis is pre-requisite to regionalization. Similarity index (Φ) and hierarchical agglomerative cluster analysis are adopted to test the homogeneity in terms of physical attributes of three basins namely Brahmani (39,033 km km^2)), Baitarani (10,982 km km^2)) and Kangsabati (9,660 km km^2)) with respect to Subarnarekha (29,196 km km^2)) basin. The results of both homogeneity analysis show that Brahmani basin is the most homogeneous with respect to Subarnarekha river basin in terms of physical characteristics (land use land cover classes, soiltype and elevation). The calibration and validation of model parameters of Brahmani basin is in progress which are to be transferred into the SHM set up of Subarnarekha basin and results are to be compared with the results of calibrated and validated

  14. Distributed Hydrologic Modeling Apps for Decision Support in the Cloud

    Science.gov (United States)

    Swain, N. R.; Latu, K.; Christiensen, S.; Jones, N.; Nelson, J.

    2013-12-01

    Advances in computation resources and greater availability of water resources data represent an untapped resource for addressing hydrologic uncertainties in water resources decision-making. The current practice of water authorities relies on empirical, lumped hydrologic models to estimate watershed response. These models are not capable of taking advantage of many of the spatial datasets that are now available. Physically-based, distributed hydrologic models are capable of using these data resources and providing better predictions through stochastic analysis. However, there exists a digital divide that discourages many science-minded decision makers from using distributed models. This divide can be spanned using a combination of existing web technologies. The purpose of this presentation is to present a cloud-based environment that will offer hydrologic modeling tools or 'apps' for decision support and the web technologies that have been selected to aid in its implementation. Compared to the more commonly used lumped-parameter models, distributed models, while being more intuitive, are still data intensive, computationally expensive, and difficult to modify for scenario exploration. However, web technologies such as web GIS, web services, and cloud computing have made the data more accessible, provided an inexpensive means of high-performance computing, and created an environment for developing user-friendly apps for distributed modeling. Since many water authorities are primarily interested in the scenario exploration exercises with hydrologic models, we are creating a toolkit that facilitates the development of a series of apps for manipulating existing distributed models. There are a number of hurdles that cloud-based hydrologic modeling developers face. One of these is how to work with the geospatial data inherent with this class of models in a web environment. Supporting geospatial data in a website is beyond the capabilities of standard web frameworks and it

  15. Hydrologic modeling of reclaimed strip mine spoil

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Edwards, K.B.; Stoertz, M.W.; Turney, D.C.

    1998-01-01

    A numerical groundwater flow model (MODFLOW) of a surface coal mine in southeast Ohio was calibrated under steady state conditions to match measured heads by varying hydraulic conductivity (K) and recharge (R). Sensitivity studies indicated that K was not largely dependent on the poorly quantified underclay elevation or on the lake boundary condition. The baseflow recharge was determined to be between 8 and 60 mm/yr (1 to 6% of annual rainfall) and K between 0.004 and 0.01 cm/s for the spoil aquifer

  16. Coupling meteorological and hydrological models for flood forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bartholmes

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper deals with the problem of analysing the coupling of meteorological meso-scale quantitative precipitation forecasts with distributed rainfall-runoff models to extend the forecasting horizon. Traditionally, semi-distributed rainfall-runoff models have been used for real time flood forecasting. More recently, increased computer capabilities allow the utilisation of distributed hydrological models with mesh sizes from tenths of metres to a few kilometres. On the other hand, meteorological models, providing the quantitative precipitation forecast, tend to produce average values on meshes ranging from slightly less than 10 to 200 kilometres. Therefore, to improve the quality of flood forecasts, the effects of coupling the meteorological and the hydrological models at different scales were analysed. A distributed hydrological model (TOPKAPI was developed and calibrated using a 1x1 km mesh for the case of the river Po closed at Ponte Spessa (catchment area c. 37000 km2. The model was then coupled with several other European meteorological models ranging from the Limited Area Models (provided by DMI and DWD with resolutions from 0.0625° * 0.0625°, to the ECMWF ensemble predictions with a resolution of 1.85° * 1.85°. Interesting results, describing the coupled model behaviour, are available for a meteorological extreme event in Northern Italy (Nov. 1994. The results demonstrate the poor reliability of the quantitative precipitation forecasts produced by meteorological models presently available; this is not resolved using the Ensemble Forecasting technique, when compared with results obtainable with measured rainfall.

  17. Modeling post-wildfire hydrological processes with ParFlow

    Science.gov (United States)

    Escobar, I. S.; Lopez, S. R.; Kinoshita, A. M.

    2017-12-01

    Wildfires alter the natural processes within a watershed, such as surface runoff, evapotranspiration rates, and subsurface water storage. Post-fire hydrologic models are typically one-dimensional, empirically-based models or two-dimensional, conceptually-based models with lumped parameter distributions. These models are useful for modeling and predictions at the watershed outlet; however, do not provide detailed, distributed hydrologic processes at the point scale within the watershed. This research uses ParFlow, a three-dimensional, distributed hydrologic model to simulate post-fire hydrologic processes by representing the spatial and temporal variability of soil burn severity (via hydrophobicity) and vegetation recovery. Using this approach, we are able to evaluate the change in post-fire water components (surface flow, lateral flow, baseflow, and evapotranspiration). This work builds upon previous field and remote sensing analysis conducted for the 2003 Old Fire Burn in Devil Canyon, located in southern California (USA). This model is initially developed for a hillslope defined by a 500 m by 1000 m lateral extent. The subsurface reaches 12.4 m and is assigned a variable cell thickness to explicitly consider soil burn severity throughout the stages of recovery and vegetation regrowth. We consider four slope and eight hydrophobic layer configurations. Evapotranspiration is used as a proxy for vegetation regrowth and is represented by the satellite-based Simplified Surface Energy Balance (SSEBOP) product. The pre- and post-fire surface runoff, subsurface storage, and surface storage interactions are evaluated at the point scale. Results will be used as a basis for developing and fine-tuning a watershed-scale model. Long-term simulations will advance our understanding of post-fire hydrological partitioning between water balance components and the spatial variability of watershed processes, providing improved guidance for post-fire watershed management. In reference

  18. Development of a "Hydrologic Equivalent Wetland" Concept for Modeling Cumulative Effects of Wetlands on Watershed Hydrology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, X.; Liu, T.; Li, R.; Yang, X.; Duan, L.; Luo, Y.

    2012-12-01

    Wetlands are one of the most important watershed microtopographic features that affect, in combination rather than individually, hydrologic processes (e.g., routing) and the fate and transport of constituents (e.g., sediment and nutrients). Efforts to conserve existing wetlands and/or to restore lost wetlands require that watershed-level effects of wetlands on water quantity and water quality be quantified. Because monitoring approaches are usually cost or logistics prohibitive at watershed scale, distributed watershed models, such as the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), can be a best resort if wetlands can be appropriately represented in the models. However, the exact method that should be used to incorporate wetlands into hydrologic models is the subject of much disagreement in the literature. In addition, there is a serious lack of information about how to model wetland conservation-restoration effects using such kind of integrated modeling approach. The objectives of this study were to: 1) develop a "hydrologic equivalent wetland" (HEW) concept; and 2) demonstrate how to use the HEW concept in SWAT to assess effects of wetland restoration within the Broughton's Creek watershed located in southwestern Manitoba of Canada, and of wetland conservation within the upper portion of the Otter Tail River watershed located in northwestern Minnesota of the United States. The HEWs were defined in terms of six calibrated parameters: the fraction of the subbasin area that drains into wetlands (WET_FR), the volume of water stored in the wetlands when filled to their normal water level (WET_NVOL), the volume of water stored in the wetlands when filled to their maximum water level (WET_MXVOL), the longest tributary channel length in the subbasin (CH_L1), Manning's n value for the tributary channels (CH_N1), and Manning's n value for the main channel (CH_N2). The results indicated that the HEW concept allows the nonlinear functional relations between watershed processes

  19. A Socio-hydrological Flood Model for the Elbe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barendrecht, M.; Viglione, A.; Kreibich, H.; Vorogushyn, S.; Merz, B.; Bloeschl, G.

    2017-12-01

    Long-term feedbacks between humans and floods may lead to complex phenomena such as coping strategies, levee effects, call effects, adaptation effects, and poverty traps. Dynamic coupled human-flood models are a promising tool to represent such phenomena and the feedbacks leading to them. These socio-hydrological models may play an important role in integrated flood risk management when they are applied to real world case studies. They can help develop hypotheses about the phenomena that have been observed in the case study of interest, by describing the interactions between the social and hydrological variables as well as other relevant variables, such as economic, environmental, political or technical, that play a role in the system. We discuss the case of Dresden where the 2002 flood, which was preceded by a period without floods but was less severe, resulted in a higher damage than the 2013 flood, which was preceded by the 2002 flood and a couple of less severe floods. The lower damage in 2013 may be explained by the fact that society has become aware of the flood risk and has adapted to it. Developing and applying a socio-hydrological flood model to the case of Dresden can help discover whether it is possible that the lower damage is caused by an adaptation effect, or if there are other feedbacks that can explain the observed phenomenon.

  20. Advancing reservoir operation description in physically based hydrological models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anghileri, Daniela; Giudici, Federico; Castelletti, Andrea; Burlando, Paolo

    2016-04-01

    Last decades have seen significant advances in our capacity of characterizing and reproducing hydrological processes within physically based models. Yet, when the human component is considered (e.g. reservoirs, water distribution systems), the associated decisions are generally modeled with very simplistic rules, which might underperform in reproducing the actual operators' behaviour on a daily or sub-daily basis. For example, reservoir operations are usually described by a target-level rule curve, which represents the level that the reservoir should track during normal operating conditions. The associated release decision is determined by the current state of the reservoir relative to the rule curve. This modeling approach can reasonably reproduce the seasonal water volume shift due to reservoir operation. Still, it cannot capture more complex decision making processes in response, e.g., to the fluctuations of energy prices and demands, the temporal unavailability of power plants or varying amount of snow accumulated in the basin. In this work, we link a physically explicit hydrological model with detailed hydropower behavioural models describing the decision making process by the dam operator. In particular, we consider two categories of behavioural models: explicit or rule-based behavioural models, where reservoir operating rules are empirically inferred from observational data, and implicit or optimization based behavioural models, where, following a normative economic approach, the decision maker is represented as a rational agent maximising a utility function. We compare these two alternate modelling approaches on the real-world water system of Lake Como catchment in the Italian Alps. The water system is characterized by the presence of 18 artificial hydropower reservoirs generating almost 13% of the Italian hydropower production. Results show to which extent the hydrological regime in the catchment is affected by different behavioural models and reservoir

  1. Calibration process of highly parameterized semi-distributed hydrological model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vidmar, Andrej; Brilly, Mitja

    2017-04-01

    Hydrological phenomena take place in the hydrological system, which is governed by nature, and are essentially stochastic. These phenomena are unique, non-recurring, and changeable across space and time. Since any river basin with its own natural characteristics and any hydrological event therein, are unique, this is a complex process that is not researched enough. Calibration is a procedure of determining the parameters of a model that are not known well enough. Input and output variables and mathematical model expressions are known, while only some parameters are unknown, which are determined by calibrating the model. The software used for hydrological modelling nowadays is equipped with sophisticated algorithms for calibration purposes without possibility to manage process by modeler. The results are not the best. We develop procedure for expert driven process of calibration. We use HBV-light-CLI hydrological model which has command line interface and coupling it with PEST. PEST is parameter estimation tool which is used widely in ground water modeling and can be used also on surface waters. Process of calibration managed by expert directly, and proportionally to the expert knowledge, affects the outcome of the inversion procedure and achieves better results than if the procedure had been left to the selected optimization algorithm. First step is to properly define spatial characteristic and structural design of semi-distributed model including all morphological and hydrological phenomena, like karstic area, alluvial area and forest area. This step includes and requires geological, meteorological, hydraulic and hydrological knowledge of modeler. Second step is to set initial parameter values at their preferred values based on expert knowledge. In this step we also define all parameter and observation groups. Peak data are essential in process of calibration if we are mainly interested in flood events. Each Sub Catchment in the model has own observations group

  2. Landscape model configuration for biosphere analysis of selected cases in TILA-99 and in KBS-3H safety evaluation, 2007

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Broed, R.

    2008-08-01

    In this report, the configuration of a landscape model based on the Terrain and ecosystems development model of the Olkiluoto site, 2006, is presented in details. The landscape model is created especially for use in the simulations of release cases in the KBS-3H safety evaluation and for recalculating some older cases originally presented in the TILA-99 safety assessment. The report presents results for constant unit release rate on the landscape doses, and activity concentrations and radionuclide inventories in the various environmental media. Results on the specific release cases are left for subsequent reports. In this report, the discussion and presentation of the results is focused on a limited set of radionuclides (Cl-36, Tc-99, I-129, Ra-226, Th-230) of different behaviour in the environment. However, same results have been calculated also for a large variety of nuclides present in the release terms to the biosphere. In the sensitivity analysis the parameters most affecting to the results are identified. They are further evaluated using data quality index, reflecting to the confidence on the underlying data and knowledge base. These are then combined in the multi-dimensional uncertainty analysis, revealing water balance, the fraction of precipitation intercepted by the foliage, concentration ratios in forests, Kds in sediments, river width and wetland parameters in general as the most important factors, in respect of the unit release rate, calling for further research at the moment, together with some structural improvements to the biosphere object modules. Uncertainties related to the release locations are studied with a number of cases assuming various patterns of release distribution to several objects as well as the release term received by single objects. The maximum landscape doses per unit release rate vary between one and less than four orders of magnitude across the cases depending on the nuclide, or from more than two less to slightly more than one

  3. Coupled Climate-Economy-Biosphere (CoCEB) model - Part 1: Abatement share and investment in low-carbon technologies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ogutu, K. B. Z.; D'Andrea, F.; Ghil, M.; Nyandwi, C.; Manene, M. M.; Muthama, J. N.

    2015-04-01

    The Coupled Climate-Economy-Biosphere (CoCEB) model described herein takes an integrated assessment approach to simulating global change. By using an endogenous economic growth module with physical and human capital accumulation, this paper considers the sustainability of economic growth, as economic activity intensifies greenhouse gas emissions that in turn cause economic damage due to climate change. Different types of fossil fuels and different technologies produce different volumes of carbon dioxide in combustion. The shares of different fuels and their future evolution are not known. We assume that the dynamics of hydrocarbon-based energy share and their replacement with renewable energy sources in the global energy balance can be modeled into the 21st century by use of logistic functions. Various climate change mitigation policy measures are considered. While many integrated assessment models treat abatement costs merely as an unproductive loss of income, we consider abatement activities also as an investment in overall energy efficiency of the economy and decrease of overall carbon intensity of the energy system. The paper shows that these efforts help to reduce the volume of industrial carbon dioxide emissions, lower temperature deviations, and lead to positive effects in economic growth.

  4. Sensitivity of Hydrologic Response to Climate Model Debiasing Procedures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Channell, K.; Gronewold, A.; Rood, R. B.; Xiao, C.; Lofgren, B. M.; Hunter, T.

    2017-12-01

    Climate change is already having a profound impact on the global hydrologic cycle. In the Laurentian Great Lakes, changes in long-term evaporation and precipitation can lead to rapid water level fluctuations in the lakes, as evidenced by unprecedented change in water levels seen in the last two decades. These fluctuations often have an adverse impact on the region's human, environmental, and economic well-being, making accurate long-term water level projections invaluable to regional water resources management planning. Here we use hydrological components from a downscaled climate model (GFDL-CM3/WRF), to obtain future water supplies for the Great Lakes. We then apply a suite of bias correction procedures before propagating these water supplies through a routing model to produce lake water levels. Results using conventional bias correction methods suggest that water levels will decline by several feet in the coming century. However, methods that reflect the seasonal water cycle and explicitly debias individual hydrological components (overlake precipitation, overlake evaporation, runoff) imply that future water levels may be closer to their historical average. This discrepancy between debiased results indicates that water level forecasts are highly influenced by the bias correction method, a source of sensitivity that is commonly overlooked. Debiasing, however, does not remedy misrepresentation of the underlying physical processes in the climate model that produce these biases and contribute uncertainty to the hydrological projections. This uncertainty coupled with the differences in water level forecasts from varying bias correction methods are important for water management and long term planning in the Great Lakes region.

  5. Coupled hydrologic and hydraulic modeling of Upper Niger River Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fleischmann, Ayan; Siqueira, Vinícius; Paris, Adrien; Collischonn, Walter; Paiva, Rodrigo; Gossett, Marielle; Pontes, Paulo; Calmant, Stephane; Biancamaria, Sylvain; Crétaux, Jean-François; Tanimoune, Bachir

    2017-04-01

    The Upper Niger Basin is located in Western Africa, flowing from Guinea Highlands towards the Sahel region. In this area lies the seasonally inundated Niger Inland Delta, which supports important environmental services such as habitats for wildlife, climate and flood regulation, as well as large fishery and agricultural areas. In this study, we present the application of MGB-IPH large scale hydrologic and hydrodynamic model for the Upper Niger Basin, totaling c.a. 650,000 km2 and set up until the city of Niamey in Niger. The model couples hydrological vertical balance and runoff generation with hydrodynamic flood wave propagation, by allowing infiltration from floodplains into soil column as well as representing backwater effects and floodplain storage throughout flat areas such as the Inland Delta. The model is forced with TRMM 3B42 daily precipitation and Climate Research Unit (CRU) climatology for the period 2000-2010, and was calibrated against in-situ discharge gauges and validated with in-situ water level, remotely sensed estimations of flooded areas (classification of MODIS imagery) and satellite altimetry (JASON-2 mission). Model results show good predictions for calibrated daily discharge and validated water level and altimetry at stations both upstream and downstream of the delta (Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency>0.7 for all stations), as well as for flooded areas within the delta region (ENS=0.5; r2=0.8), allowing a good representation of flooding dynamics basinwide and simulation of flooding behavior of both perennial (e.g., Niger main stem) and ephemeral rivers (e.g., Niger Red Flood tributaries in Sahel). Coupling between hydrology and hydrodynamic processes indicates an important feedback between floodplain and soil water storage that allows high evapotranspiration rates even after the flood passage around the inner delta area. Also, representation of water retention in floodplain channels and distributaries in the inner delta (e.g., Diaka river

  6. Assessing climate change impact by integrated hydrological modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lajer Hojberg, Anker; Jørgen Henriksen, Hans; Olsen, Martin; der Keur Peter, van; Seaby, Lauren Paige; Troldborg, Lars; Sonnenborg, Torben; Refsgaard, Jens Christian

    2013-04-01

    Future climate may have a profound effect on the freshwater cycle, which must be taken into consideration by water management for future planning. Developments in the future climate are nevertheless uncertain, thus adding to the challenge of managing an uncertain system. To support the water managers at various levels in Denmark, the national water resources model (DK-model) (Højberg et al., 2012; Stisen et al., 2012) was used to propagate future climate to hydrological response under considerations of the main sources of uncertainty. The DK-model is a physically based and fully distributed model constructed on the basis of the MIKE SHE/MIKE11 model system describing groundwater and surface water systems and the interaction between the domains. The model has been constructed for the entire 43.000 km2 land area of Denmark only excluding minor islands. Future climate from General Circulation Models (GCM) was downscaled by Regional Climate Models (RCM) by a distribution-based scaling method (Seaby et al., 2012). The same dataset was used to train all combinations of GCM-RCMs and they were found to represent the mean and variance at the seasonal basis equally well. Changes in hydrological response were computed by comparing the short term development from the period 1990 - 2010 to 2021 - 2050, which is the time span relevant for water management. To account for uncertainty in future climate predictions, hydrological response from the DK-model using nine combinations of GCMs and RCMs was analysed for two catchments representing the various hydrogeological conditions in Denmark. Three GCM-RCM combinations displaying high, mean and low future impacts were selected as representative climate models for which climate impact studies were carried out for the entire country. Parameter uncertainty was addressed by sensitivity analysis and was generally found to be of less importance compared to the uncertainty spanned by the GCM-RCM combinations. Analysis of the simulations

  7. Hydrological modelling of the west coast of India

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Suprit, K.

    pleasure. I am thankful to our system administrators Dattaram, Kaushik, Krupesh, Ashok and Sarvesh for providing hassle-free computer and peripheral support. After passing M. Sc., I was looking for a research position and NIO was not on my radar. Roxy, my..., and evaporation. The framework is based on Terrestrial Hydrologic Model with Biogeochemistry (THMB) 2, a numerical model developed by Coe [2000]. THMB model provides a reliable water balance of a river system. Figure 1.7 The Mandovi and Zuari (all rivers digitized...

  8. Hydrological Modelling of Small Scale Processes in a Wetland Habitat

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Johansen, Ole; Jensen, Jacob Birk; Pedersen, Morten Lauge

    2009-01-01

    Numerical modelling of the hydrology in a Danish rich fen area has been conducted. By collecting various data in the field the model has been successfully calibrated and the flow paths as well as the groundwater discharge distribution have been simulated in details. The results of this work have...... shown that distributed numerical models can be applied to local scale problems and that natural springs, ditches, the geological conditions as well as the local topographic variations have a significant influence on the flow paths in the examined rich fen area....

  9. Parallelization of a hydrological model using the message passing interface

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Yiping; Li, Tiejian; Sun, Liqun; Chen, Ji

    2013-01-01

    With the increasing knowledge about the natural processes, hydrological models such as the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) are becoming larger and more complex with increasing computation time. Additionally, other procedures such as model calibration, which may require thousands of model iterations, can increase running time and thus further reduce rapid modeling and analysis. Using the widely-applied SWAT as an example, this study demonstrates how to parallelize a serial hydrological model in a Windows® environment using a parallel programing technology—Message Passing Interface (MPI). With a case study, we derived the optimal values for the two parameters (the number of processes and the corresponding percentage of work to be distributed to the master process) of the parallel SWAT (P-SWAT) on an ordinary personal computer and a work station. Our study indicates that model execution time can be reduced by 42%–70% (or a speedup of 1.74–3.36) using multiple processes (two to five) with a proper task-distribution scheme (between the master and slave processes). Although the computation time cost becomes lower with an increasing number of processes (from two to five), this enhancement becomes less due to the accompanied increase in demand for message passing procedures between the master and all slave processes. Our case study demonstrates that the P-SWAT with a five-process run may reach the maximum speedup, and the performance can be quite stable (fairly independent of a project size). Overall, the P-SWAT can help reduce the computation time substantially for an individual model run, manual and automatic calibration procedures, and optimization of best management practices. In particular, the parallelization method we used and the scheme for deriving the optimal parameters in this study can be valuable and easily applied to other hydrological or environmental models.

  10. Data Assimilation in Integrated and Distributed Hydrological Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhang, Donghua

    processes and provide simulations in refined temporal and spatial resolutions. Recent developments in measurement and sensor technologies have significantly improved the coverage, quality, frequency and diversity of hydrological observations. Data assimilation provides a great potential in relation...... point of view, different assimilation methodologies and techniques have been developed or customized to better serve hydrological assimilation. From the application point of view, real data and real-world complex catchments are used with the focus of investigating the models’ improvements with data...... a variety of model uncertainty sources and scales. Next the groundwater head assimilation experiment was tested in a much more complex catchment with assimilation of biased real observations. In such cases, the bias-aware assimilation method significantly outperforms the standard assimilation method...

  11. Modeling the Hydrologic Processes of a Permeable Pavement ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    A permeable pavement system can capture stormwater to reduce runoff volume and flow rate, improve onsite groundwater recharge, and enhance pollutant controls within the site. A new unit process model for evaluating the hydrologic performance of a permeable pavement system has been developed in this study. The developed model can continuously simulate infiltration through the permeable pavement surface, exfiltration from the storage to the surrounding in situ soils, and clogging impacts on infiltration/exfiltration capacity at the pavement surface and the bottom of the subsurface storage unit. The exfiltration modeling component simulates vertical and horizontal exfiltration independently based on Darcy’s formula with the Green-Ampt approximation. The developed model can be arranged with physically-based modeling parameters, such as hydraulic conductivity, Manning’s friction flow parameters, saturated and field capacity volumetric water contents, porosity, density, etc. The developed model was calibrated using high-frequency observed data. The modeled water depths are well matched with the observed values (R2 = 0.90). The modeling results show that horizontal exfiltration through the side walls of the subsurface storage unit is a prevailing factor in determining the hydrologic performance of the system, especially where the storage unit is developed in a long, narrow shape; or with a high risk of bottom compaction and clogging. This paper presents unit

  12. A Biosphere Assessment: Influence due to Geosphere-Biosphere Interfaces

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Youn Myoung; Hwang, Yong Soo

    2009-01-01

    Recently the geosphere-biosphere interfaces (GBIs), which is recognized as a zone (GBIZ) beyond the simple conceptual boundaries between the geosphere and biosphere modeling domains for safety assessment, has been raised to an important issue for the biosphere assessment. For the licensing process of the repository, the final step of a series of safety and performance assessment should be concerned how nuclides released from the geological media could make their farther transfer in the biosphere giving rise to doses to humans. Unlike in the case of geosphere, the distinct characteristics of biosphere modeling includes the potential release and subsequent exposure taking place not in the near future with rather unreliable predictions of human behavior at the time of its release. And also unlike the near- and far-field of geospheres such as near field engineering structures and natural geological media, the biosphere is not conceived as a barrier itself that could be well designed or optimized, which always causes the necessity of site-specific modeling approach as much as possible. Through every step of whole geosphere and biosphere modeling, nuclides transport from various geological media to the biosphere over the GBI, biosphere modeling can be done independently, not even knowing what happens in the geosphere, making access possible to it in a separate manner, even though, to some extent, it might somehow need to be accounted for geosphere transport, as is similarly being currently done in many other countries. In general, to show the performance of the repository, dose exposure to the critical group due to nuclide release from the repository should be evaluated and the results compared to the risk or dose presented by regulatory bodies, as safety and performance criteria for HLW repository are usually expressed in terms of quantitative risk or dose. For a real site-specific treatment and incorporation of geological features such as aquifers into the biosphere

  13. Olkiluoto surface hydrological modelling: Update 2012 including salt transport modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Karvonen, T.

    2013-11-01

    Posiva Oy is responsible for implementing a final disposal program for spent nuclear fuel of its owners Teollisuuden Voima Oyj and Fortum Power and Heat Oy. The spent nuclear fuel is planned to be disposed at a depth of about 400-450 meters in the crystalline bedrock at the Olkiluoto site. Leakages located at or close to spent fuel repository may give rise to the upconing of deep highly saline groundwater and this is a concern with regard to the performance of the tunnel backfill material after the closure of the tunnels. Therefore a salt transport sub-model was added to the Olkiluoto surface hydrological model (SHYD). The other improvements include update of the particle tracking algorithm and possibility to estimate the influence of open drillholes in a case where overpressure in inflatable packers decreases causing a hydraulic short-circuit between hydrogeological zones HZ19 and HZ20 along the drillhole. Four new hydrogeological zones HZ056, HZ146, BFZ100 and HZ039 were added to the model. In addition, zones HZ20A and HZ20B intersect with each other in the new structure model, which influences salinity upconing caused by leakages in shafts. The aim of the modelling of long-term influence of ONKALO, shafts and repository tunnels provide computational results that can be used to suggest limits for allowed leakages. The model input data included all the existing leakages into ONKALO (35-38 l/min) and shafts in the present day conditions. The influence of shafts was computed using eight different values for total shaft leakage: 5, 11, 20, 30, 40, 50, 60 and 70 l/min. The selection of the leakage criteria for shafts was influenced by the fact that upconing of saline water increases TDS-values close to the repository areas although HZ20B does not intersect any deposition tunnels. The total limit for all leakages was suggested to be 120 l/min. The limit for HZ20 zones was proposed to be 40 l/min: about 5 l/min the present day leakages to access tunnel, 25 l/min from

  14. Olkiluoto surface hydrological modelling: Update 2012 including salt transport modelling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Karvonen, T. [WaterHope, Helsinki (Finland)

    2013-11-15

    Posiva Oy is responsible for implementing a final disposal program for spent nuclear fuel of its owners Teollisuuden Voima Oyj and Fortum Power and Heat Oy. The spent nuclear fuel is planned to be disposed at a depth of about 400-450 meters in the crystalline bedrock at the Olkiluoto site. Leakages located at or close to spent fuel repository may give rise to the upconing of deep highly saline groundwater and this is a concern with regard to the performance of the tunnel backfill material after the closure of the tunnels. Therefore a salt transport sub-model was added to the Olkiluoto surface hydrological model (SHYD). The other improvements include update of the particle tracking algorithm and possibility to estimate the influence of open drillholes in a case where overpressure in inflatable packers decreases causing a hydraulic short-circuit between hydrogeological zones HZ19 and HZ20 along the drillhole. Four new hydrogeological zones HZ056, HZ146, BFZ100 and HZ039 were added to the model. In addition, zones HZ20A and HZ20B intersect with each other in the new structure model, which influences salinity upconing caused by leakages in shafts. The aim of the modelling of long-term influence of ONKALO, shafts and repository tunnels provide computational results that can be used to suggest limits for allowed leakages. The model input data included all the existing leakages into ONKALO (35-38 l/min) and shafts in the present day conditions. The influence of shafts was computed using eight different values for total shaft leakage: 5, 11, 20, 30, 40, 50, 60 and 70 l/min. The selection of the leakage criteria for shafts was influenced by the fact that upconing of saline water increases TDS-values close to the repository areas although HZ20B does not intersect any deposition tunnels. The total limit for all leakages was suggested to be 120 l/min. The limit for HZ20 zones was proposed to be 40 l/min: about 5 l/min the present day leakages to access tunnel, 25 l/min from

  15. Evaluation and hydrological modelization in the natural hazard prevention

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pla Sentis, Ildefonso

    2011-01-01

    Soil degradation affects negatively his functions as a base to produce food, to regulate the hydrological cycle and the environmental quality. All over the world soil degradation is increasing partly due to lacks or deficiencies in the evaluations of the processes and causes of this degradation on each specific situation. The processes of soil physical degradation are manifested through several problems as compaction, runoff, hydric and Eolic erosion, landslides with collateral effects in situ and in the distance, often with disastrous consequences as foods, landslides, sedimentations, droughts, etc. These processes are frequently associated to unfavorable changes into the hydrologic processes responsible of the water balance and soil hydric regimes, mainly derived to soil use changes and different management practices and climatic changes. The evaluation of these processes using simple simulation models; under several scenarios of climatic change, soil properties and land use and management; would allow to predict the occurrence of this disastrous processes and consequently to select and apply the appropriate practices of soil conservation to eliminate or reduce their effects. This simulation models require, as base, detailed climatic information and hydrologic soil properties data. Despite of the existence of methodologies and commercial equipment (each time more sophisticated and precise) to measure the different physical and hydrological soil properties related with degradation processes, most of them are only applicable under really specific or laboratory conditions. Often indirect methodologies are used, based on relations or empiric indexes without an adequate validation, that often lead to expensive mistakes on the evaluation of soil degradation processes and their effects on natural disasters. It could be preferred simple field methodologies, direct and adaptable to different soil types and climates and to the sample size and the spatial variability of the

  16. Assessing filtering of mountaintop CO2 mole fractions for application to inverse models of biosphere-atmosphere carbon exchange

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. L. Heck

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available There is a widely recognized need to improve our understanding of biosphere-atmosphere carbon exchanges in areas of complex terrain including the United States Mountain West. CO2 fluxes over mountainous terrain are often difficult to measure due to unusual and complicated influences associated with atmospheric transport. Consequently, deriving regional fluxes in mountain regions with carbon cycle inversion of atmospheric CO2 mole fraction is sensitive to filtering of observations to those that can be represented at the transport model resolution. Using five years of CO2 mole fraction observations from the Regional Atmospheric Continuous CO2 Network in the Rocky Mountains (Rocky RACCOON, five statistical filters are used to investigate a range of approaches for identifying regionally representative CO2 mole fractions. Test results from three filters indicate that subsets based on short-term variance and local CO2 gradients across tower inlet heights retain nine-tenths of the total observations and are able to define representative diel variability and seasonal cycles even for difficult-to-model sites where the influence of local fluxes is much larger than regional mole fraction variations. Test results from two other filters that consider measurements from previous and following days using spline fitting or sliding windows are overly selective. Case study examples showed that these windowing-filters rejected measurements representing synoptic changes in CO2, which suggests that they are not well suited to filtering continental CO2 measurements. We present a novel CO2 lapse rate filter that uses CO2 differences between levels in the model atmosphere to select subsets of site measurements that are representative on model scales. Our new filtering techniques provide guidance for novel approaches to assimilating mountain-top CO2 mole fractions in carbon cycle inverse models.

  17. Estimating Runoff From Roadcuts With a Distributed Hydrologic Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cuhaciyan, C.; Luce, C.; Voisin, N.; Lettenmaier, D.; Black, T.

    2008-12-01

    Roads can have a substantial effect on hydrologic patterns of forested watersheds; the most noteworthy being the resurfacing of shallow groundwater at roadcuts. The influence of roads on hydrology has compelled hydrologists to include water routing and storage routines in rainfall-runoff models, such as those in the Distributed Hydrologic Soil Vegetation Model (DHSVM). We tested the ability of DHSVM to match observed runoff in roadcuts of a watershed in the Coast Range of Oregon. Eight roadcuts were instrumented using large tipping bucket gauges designed to capture only the water entering the roadside ditch from an 80-m long roadcut. The roadcuts were categorized by the topography of the upstream hillside as either swale, planar, or ridge. The simulation was run from December 2002 to December 2003 at a relatively fine spatial resolution (10-m). Average observed soil depths are 1.8-m across the watershed, below which there lies deep and highly weathered sandstone. DHSVM was designed for relatively impermeable bedrock and shallow soils; therefore it does not provide a mechanism for deep groundwater movement and storage. In the geologic setting of the study basin, however, water is routed through the sandstone allowing water to pass under roads through the parent material. For this reason a uniformly deep soil of 6.5-m with a decreased decay in conductivity with depth was used in the model to allow water to be routed beneath roadcuts that are up to 5.5-m in height. Up to three, typically shallow, soil layers can be modeled in DHSVM. We used the lowest of the three soil layers to mimic the hydraulically-well-connected sandstone exposed at deeper roadcuts. The model was calibrated against observed discharge at the outlet of the watershed. While model results closely matched the observed hydrograph at the watershed outlet, simulated runoff at an upstream gauge and the roadside ditches were varied and often higher than those observed in the field. The timing of the field

  18. Assimilation of remote sensing and hydrological data using adaptive filtering techniques for watershed modelling

    OpenAIRE

    Kumar, Sat; Sekhar, M; Bandyopadhyay, Sanjoy

    2009-01-01

    The knowledge of hydrological variables (e. g. soil moisture, evapotranspiration) are of pronounced importance in various applications including flood control, agricultural production and effective water resources management. These applications require the accurate prediction of hydrological variables spatially and temporally in watershed/basin. Though hydrological models can simulate these variables at desired resolution (spatial and temporal), often they are validated against the variab...

  19. Inter-annual variability of the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations as simulated with global terrestrial biosphere models and an atmospheric transport model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fujita, Daisuke; Saeki, Tazu; Nakazawa, Takakiyo [Tohoku Univ., Sendai (Japan). Center for Atmospheric and Oceanic Studies; Ishizawa, Misa; Maksyutov, Shamil [Inst. for Global Change Research, Yokohama (Japan). Frontier Research System for Global Change; Thornton, Peter E. [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States). Climate and Global Dynamics Div.

    2003-04-01

    Seasonal and inter-annual variations of atmospheric CO{sub 2} for the period from 1961 to 1997 have been simulated using a global tracer transport model driven by a new version of the Biome BioGeochemical Cycle model (Biome-BGC). Biome-BGC was forced by daily temperature and precipitation from the NCEP reanalysis dataset, and the calculated monthly-averaged CO{sub 2} fluxes were used as input to the global transport model. Results from an inter-comparison with the Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach model (CASA) and the Simulation model of Carbon CYCLE in Land Ecosystems (Sim-CYCLE) model are also reported. The phase of the seasonal cycle in the Northern Hemisphere was reproduced generally well by Biome-BGC, although the amplitude was smaller compared to the observations and to the other biosphere models. The CO{sub 2} time series simulated by Biome-BGC were compared to the global CO{sub 2} concentration anomalies from the observations at Mauna Loa and the South Pole. The modeled concentration anomalies matched the phase of the inter-annual variations in the atmospheric CO{sub 2} observations; however, the modeled amplitude was lower than the observed value in several cases. The result suggests that a significant part of the inter-annual variability in the global carbon cycle can be accounted for by the terrestrial biosphere models. Simulations performed with another climate-based model, Sim-CYCLE, produced a larger amplitude of inter-annual variability in atmospheric CO{sub 2}, making the amplitude closer to the observed range, but with a more visible phase mismatch in a number of time periods. This may indicate the need to increase the Biome-BGC model sensitivity to seasonal and inter-annual changes in temperature and precipitation.

  20. Inter-annual variability of the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations as simulated with global terrestrial biosphere models and an atmospheric transport model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fujita, Daisuke; Saeki, Tazu; Nakazawa, Takakiyo; Ishizawa, Misa; Maksyutov, Shamil; Thornton, Peter E.

    2003-01-01

    Seasonal and inter-annual variations of atmospheric CO 2 for the period from 1961 to 1997 have been simulated using a global tracer transport model driven by a new version of the Biome BioGeochemical Cycle model (Biome-BGC). Biome-BGC was forced by daily temperature and precipitation from the NCEP reanalysis dataset, and the calculated monthly-averaged CO 2 fluxes were used as input to the global transport model. Results from an inter-comparison with the Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach model (CASA) and the Simulation model of Carbon CYCLE in Land Ecosystems (Sim-CYCLE) model are also reported. The phase of the seasonal cycle in the Northern Hemisphere was reproduced generally well by Biome-BGC, although the amplitude was smaller compared to the observations and to the other biosphere models. The CO 2 time series simulated by Biome-BGC were compared to the global CO 2 concentration anomalies from the observations at Mauna Loa and the South Pole. The modeled concentration anomalies matched the phase of the inter-annual variations in the atmospheric CO 2 observations; however, the modeled amplitude was lower than the observed value in several cases. The result suggests that a significant part of the inter-annual variability in the global carbon cycle can be accounted for by the terrestrial biosphere models. Simulations performed with another climate-based model, Sim-CYCLE, produced a larger amplitude of inter-annual variability in atmospheric CO 2 , making the amplitude closer to the observed range, but with a more visible phase mismatch in a number of time periods. This may indicate the need to increase the Biome-BGC model sensitivity to seasonal and inter-annual changes in temperature and precipitation

  1. Assimilating uncertain, dynamic and intermittent streamflow observations in hydrological models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mazzoleni, Maurizio; Alfonso, Leonardo; Chacon-Hurtado, Juan; Solomatine, Dimitri

    2015-09-01

    Catastrophic floods cause significant socio-economical losses. Non-structural measures, such as real-time flood forecasting, can potentially reduce flood risk. To this end, data assimilation methods have been used to improve flood forecasts by integrating static ground observations, and in some cases also remote sensing observations, within water models. Current hydrologic and hydraulic research works consider assimilation of observations coming from traditional, static sensors. At the same time, low-cost, mobile sensors and mobile communication devices are becoming also increasingly available. The main goal and innovation of this study is to demonstrate the usefulness of assimilating uncertain streamflow observations that are dynamic in space and intermittent in time in the context of two different semi-distributed hydrological model structures. The developed method is applied to the Brue basin, where the dynamic observations are imitated by the synthetic observations of discharge. The results of this study show how model structures and sensors locations affect in different ways the assimilation of streamflow observations. In addition, it proves how assimilation of such uncertain observations from dynamic sensors can provide model improvements similar to those of streamflow observations coming from a non-optimal network of static physical sensors. This can be a potential application of recent efforts to build citizen observatories of water, which can make the citizens an active part in information capturing, evaluation and communication, helping simultaneously to improvement of model-based flood forecasting.

  2. European-wide simulations of present cropland phenology, productivity and carbon fluxes using an improved terrestrial biosphere model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, P. C.; Ciais, P.; de Noblet, N.; Peylin, P.; Viovy, N.; Bondeau, A.

    2009-04-01

    Aiming at producing improved estimates of carbon source/sink spatial and interannual patterns across Europe (35% croplands), this work combines the terrestrial biosphere model ORCHIDEE (for vegetation productivity, water balance, soil carbon dynamics) and the generic crop model STICS (for phenology, irrigation, nitrogen balance, harvest). The ORCHIDEE-STICS model, relying on three plant functional types for the representation of temperate agriculture, is evaluated over the last few decades at various spatial and temporal resolutions. The simulated Leaf Area Index seasonal cycle is largely improved relative to the original ORCHIDEE simulating grasslands, and compares favourably with remote-sensing observations (the Figure of Merit in Time doubles over Europe). Crop yield is derived from annual Net Primary Productivity and compared with wheat and grain maize harvest data for five European countries. Discrepancies between 30-year mean simulated and reported yields remain large in Mediterranean countries. Interannual variability amplitude expressed relative to the mean is reduced towards the observed variability (~10%) when using ORCHIDEE-STICS. The simulated 2003 anomalous carbon source from European ecosystems to the atmosphere due to the 2003 summer heat wave is in good agreement with atmospheric inversions (~0.2 GtC, from May to October). The anomaly is twice as large in the ORCHIDEE alone simulation, owing to the unrealistically high exposure of herbaceous plants to the extreme summer conditions. Overall, this study highlights the importance of accounting for the specific phonologies of crops sown both in winter and in spring and for irrigation applied to summer crops in regional/global models of the terrestrial carbon cycle. Limitations suggest accounting for temporal and spatial variability in agricultural practices for further simulation improvement.

  3. Nominal Performance Biosphere Dose Conversion Factor Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    M. Wasiolek

    2004-01-01

    This analysis report is one of the technical reports containing documentation of the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain, Nevada (ERMYN), a biosphere model supporting the Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) for the license application (LA) for the Yucca Mountain repository. This analysis report describes the development of biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs) for the groundwater exposure scenario, and the development of conversion factors for assessing compliance with the groundwater protection standard. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows the interrelationships among the products (i.e., analysis and model reports) developed for biosphere modeling and provides an understanding of how this analysis report contributes to biosphere modeling. This report is one of two reports that develop biosphere BDCFs, which are input parameters for the TSPA-LA model. The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169460]) describes in detail the ERMYN conceptual model and mathematical model. The input parameter reports, shown to the right of the ''Biosphere Model Report'' in Figure 1-1, contain detailed description of the model input parameters, their development, and the relationship between the parameters and specific features events and processes (FEPs). This report describes biosphere model calculations and their output, the BDCFs, for the groundwater exposure scenario. The objectives of this analysis are to develop BDCFs for the groundwater exposure scenario for the three climate states considered in the TSPA-LA as well as conversion factors for evaluating compliance with the groundwater protection standard. The BDCFs will be used in performance assessment for calculating all-pathway annual doses for a given concentration of radionuclides in groundwater. The conversion factors will be used for calculating gross alpha particle activity in groundwater and the annual dose

  4. Remote sensing inputs to landscape models which predict future spatial land use patterns for hydrologic models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, L. D.; Tom, C.; Nualchawee, K.

    1977-01-01

    A tropical forest area of Northern Thailand provided a test case of the application of the approach in more natural surroundings. Remote sensing imagery subjected to proper computer analysis has been shown to be a very useful means of collecting spatial data for the science of hydrology. Remote sensing products provide direct input to hydrologic models and practical data bases for planning large and small-scale hydrologic developments. Combining the available remote sensing imagery together with available map information in the landscape model provides a basis for substantial improvements in these applications.

  5. Spatial interpolation schemes of daily precipitation for hydrologic modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hwang, Y.; Clark, M.R.; Rajagopalan, B.; Leavesley, G.

    2012-01-01

    Distributed hydrologic models typically require spatial estimates of precipitation interpolated from sparsely located observational points to the specific grid points. We compare and contrast the performance of regression-based statistical methods for the spatial estimation of precipitation in two hydrologically different basins and confirmed that widely used regression-based estimation schemes fail to describe the realistic spatial variability of daily precipitation field. The methods assessed are: (1) inverse distance weighted average; (2) multiple linear regression (MLR); (3) climatological MLR; and (4) locally weighted polynomial regression (LWP). In order to improve the performance of the interpolations, the authors propose a two-step regression technique for effective daily precipitation estimation. In this simple two-step estimation process, precipitation occurrence is first generated via a logistic regression model before estimate the amount of precipitation separately on wet days. This process generated the precipitation occurrence, amount, and spatial correlation effectively. A distributed hydrologic model (PRMS) was used for the impact analysis in daily time step simulation. Multiple simulations suggested noticeable differences between the input alternatives generated by three different interpolation schemes. Differences are shown in overall simulation error against the observations, degree of explained variability, and seasonal volumes. Simulated streamflows also showed different characteristics in mean, maximum, minimum, and peak flows. Given the same parameter optimization technique, LWP input showed least streamflow error in Alapaha basin and CMLR input showed least error (still very close to LWP) in Animas basin. All of the two-step interpolation inputs resulted in lower streamflow error compared to the directly interpolated inputs. ?? 2011 Springer-Verlag.

  6. Simulated CONUS Flash Flood Climatologies from Distributed Hydrologic Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flamig, Z.; Gourley, J. J.; Vergara, H. J.; Kirstetter, P. E.; Hong, Y.

    2016-12-01

    This study will describe a CONUS flash flood climatology created over the period from 2002 through 2011. The MRMS reanalysis precipitation dataset was used as forcing into the Ensemble Framework For Flash Flood Forecasting (EF5). This high resolution 1-sq km 5-minute dataset is ideal for simulating flash floods with a distributed hydrologic model. EF5 features multiple water balance components including SAC-SMA, CREST, and a hydrophobic model all coupled with kinematic wave routing. The EF5/SAC-SMA and EF5/CREST water balance schemes were used for the creation of dual flash flood climatologies based on the differing water balance principles. For the period from 2002 through 2011 the daily maximum streamflow, unit streamflow, and time of peak streamflow was stored along with the minimum soil moisture. These variables are used to describe the states of the soils right before a flash flood event and the peak streamflow that was simulated during the flash flood event. The results will be shown, compared and contrasted. The resulting model simulations will be verified on basins less than 1,000-sq km with USGS gauges to ensure the distributed hydrologic models are reliable. The results will also be compared spatially to Storm Data flash flood event observations to judge the degree of agreement between the simulated climatologies and observations.

  7. Groundwater chemistry and fracture mineralogy in the Whiteshell Research Area: Supporting data for the geosphere and biosphere transport models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gascoyne, M.; Kamineni, D. C.

    1992-02-15

    For the case study in the Environmental Impact Statement for the Canadian Nuclear Fuel Waste Management Program, segments of the geosphere transport model (GEONET) have been assigned groundwater chemical properties and mineralogical abundances based on data obtained from analysis of groundwaters and rock types in the Whiteshell Research Area. For the groundwaters, salinity and redox conditions range from 0.5 g/L and +200 mV for the shallowest to 25 g/L and -300 mV for the deepest rock layers in the model. The salinity and redox trends of the segments are consistent with observations of other Canadian Shield environments and with concentrations of redox-sensitive species in the groundwater and fracture mineralogy. Modal volume percent of minerals estimated from thin sections of core samples have been used as input data for the same segments of GEONET. The most common minerals include chlorite, muscovite, clays (mainly illite), calcite and iron oxides. In addition, iodide concentrations for these segments have also been determined from available data to provide supporting data for the biosphere transport model (BIOTRAC). The concentrations range from 5 ug/L for shallow to 350 ug/L for deep groundwaters. Likely iodode concentrations for well water or near-surface water discharging into a lake in BIOTRAC range from 5 to 70 ug/L depending on well depth. A uniform probability distribution function is regarded as most appropriate for the groundwater data inputs and a normal distribution is most suitable for the mineralogical modal percent composition. (auth)

  8. How well do terrestrial biosphere models simulate coarse-scale runoff in the contiguous United States?

    Science.gov (United States)

    C.R. Schwalm; D.N. Huntzinger; R.B. Cook; Y. Wei; I.T. Baker; R.P. Neilson; B. Poulter; Peter Caldwell; G. Sun; H.Q. Tian; N. Zeng

    2015-01-01

    Significant changes in the water cycle are expected under current global environmental change. Robust assessment of present-day water cycle dynamics at continental to global scales is confounded by shortcomings in the observed record. Modeled assessments also yield conflicting results which are linked to differences in model structure and simulation protocol. Here we...

  9. Probabilistic biosphere modeling for the long-term safety assessment of geological disposal facilities for radioactive waste using first- and second-order Monte Carlo simulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ciecior, Willy; Röhlig, Klaus-Jürgen; Kirchner, Gerald

    2018-10-01

    In the present paper, deterministic as well as first- and second-order probabilistic biosphere modeling approaches are compared. Furthermore, the sensitivity of the influence of the probability distribution function shape (empirical distribution functions and fitted lognormal probability functions) representing the aleatory uncertainty (also called variability) of a radioecological model parameter as well as the role of interacting parameters are studied. Differences in the shape of the output distributions for the biosphere dose conversion factor from first-order Monte Carlo uncertainty analysis using empirical and fitted lognormal distribution functions for input parameters suggest that a lognormal approximation is possibly not always an adequate representation of the aleatory uncertainty of a radioecological parameter. Concerning the comparison of the impact of aleatory and epistemic parameter uncertainty on the biosphere dose conversion factor, the latter here is described using uncertain moments (mean, variance) while the distribution itself represents the aleatory uncertainty of the parameter. From the results obtained, the solution space of second-order Monte Carlo simulation is much larger than that from first-order Monte Carlo simulation. Therefore, the influence of epistemic uncertainty of a radioecological parameter on the output result is much larger than that one caused by its aleatory uncertainty. Parameter interactions are only of significant influence in the upper percentiles of the distribution of results as well as only in the region of the upper percentiles of the model parameters. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Disruptive Event Biosphere Dose Conversion Factor Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    M. Wasiolek

    2004-09-08

    This analysis report is one of the technical reports containing documentation of the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain, Nevada (ERMYN), a biosphere model supporting the total system performance assessment (TSPA) for the license application (LA) for the Yucca Mountain repository. This analysis report describes the development of biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs) for the volcanic ash exposure scenario, and the development of dose factors for calculating inhalation dose during volcanic eruption. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows the interrelationships among the products (i.e., analysis and model reports) developed for biosphere modeling and provides an understanding of how this analysis report contributes to biosphere modeling. This report is one of two reports that develop biosphere BDCFs, which are input parameters for the TSPA model. The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169460]) describes in detail the ERMYN conceptual model and mathematical model. The input parameter reports, shown to the right of the Biosphere Model Report in Figure 1-1, contain detailed descriptions of the model input parameters, their development and the relationship between the parameters and specific features, events and processes (FEPs). This report describes biosphere model calculations and their output, the BDCFs, for the volcanic ash exposure scenario. This analysis receives direct input from the outputs of the ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169460]) and from the five analyses that develop parameter values for the biosphere model (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169671]; BSC 2004 [DIRS 169672]; BSC 2004 [DIRS 169673]; BSC 2004 [DIRS 169458]; and BSC 2004 [DIRS 169459]). The results of this report are further analyzed in the ''Biosphere Dose Conversion Factor Importance and Sensitivity Analysis''. The objective of this

  11. Disruptive Event Biosphere Dose Conversion Factor Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    M. Wasiolek

    2004-01-01

    This analysis report is one of the technical reports containing documentation of the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain, Nevada (ERMYN), a biosphere model supporting the total system performance assessment (TSPA) for the license application (LA) for the Yucca Mountain repository. This analysis report describes the development of biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs) for the volcanic ash exposure scenario, and the development of dose factors for calculating inhalation dose during volcanic eruption. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows the interrelationships among the products (i.e., analysis and model reports) developed for biosphere modeling and provides an understanding of how this analysis report contributes to biosphere modeling. This report is one of two reports that develop biosphere BDCFs, which are input parameters for the TSPA model. The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169460]) describes in detail the ERMYN conceptual model and mathematical model. The input parameter reports, shown to the right of the Biosphere Model Report in Figure 1-1, contain detailed descriptions of the model input parameters, their development and the relationship between the parameters and specific features, events and processes (FEPs). This report describes biosphere model calculations and their output, the BDCFs, for the volcanic ash exposure scenario. This analysis receives direct input from the outputs of the ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169460]) and from the five analyses that develop parameter values for the biosphere model (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169671]; BSC 2004 [DIRS 169672]; BSC 2004 [DIRS 169673]; BSC 2004 [DIRS 169458]; and BSC 2004 [DIRS 169459]). The results of this report are further analyzed in the ''Biosphere Dose Conversion Factor Importance and Sensitivity Analysis''. The objective of this analysis was to develop the BDCFs for the volcanic ash

  12. The Earth's Biosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    2002-01-01

    In the last five years, scientists have been able to monitor our changing planet in ways never before possible. The Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-View Sensor (SeaWiFS), aboard the OrbView-2 satellite, has given researchers an unprecedented view of the biological engine that drives life on Earth-the countless forms of plants that cover the land and fill the oceans. 'There is no question the Earth is changing. SeaWiFS has enabled us, for the first time, to monitor the biological consequences of that change-to see how the things we do, as well as natural variability, affect the Earth's ability to support life,' said Gene Carl Feldman, SeaWiFS project manager at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Md. SeaWiFS data, based on continuous daily global observations, have helped scientists make a more accurate assessment of the oceans' role in the global carbon cycle. The data provide a key parameter in a number of ecological and environmental studies as well as global climate-change modeling. The images of the Earth's changing land, ocean and atmosphere from SeaWiFS have documented many previously unrecognized phenomena. The image above shows the global biosphere from June 2002 measured by SeaWiFS. Data in the oceans is chlorophyll concentration, a measure of the amount of phytoplankton (microscopic plants) living in the ocean. On land SeaWiFS measures Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, an indication of the density of plant growth. For more information and images, read: SeaWiFS Sensor Marks Five Years Documenting Earth'S Dynamic Biosphere Image courtesy SeaWiFS project and copyright Orbimage.

  13. Data assimilation in integrated hydrological modeling using ensemble Kalman filtering

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Jørn; Madsen, H.; Jensen, Karsten Høgh

    2015-01-01

    Groundwater head and stream discharge is assimilated using the ensemble transform Kalman filter in an integrated hydrological model with the aim of studying the relationship between the filter performance and the ensemble size. In an attempt to reduce the required number of ensemble members...... and estimating parameters requires a much larger ensemble size than just assimilating groundwater head observations. However, the required ensemble size can be greatly reduced with the use of adaptive localization, which by far outperforms distance-based localization. The study is conducted using synthetic data...

  14. Climate change impact on available water resources obtained using multiple global climate and hydrology models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Hagemann

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Climate change is expected to alter the hydrological cycle resulting in large-scale impacts on water availability. However, future climate change impact assessments are highly uncertain. For the first time, multiple global climate (three and hydrological models (eight were used to systematically assess the hydrological response to climate change and project the future state of global water resources. This multi-model ensemble allows us to investigate how the hydrology models contribute to the uncertainty in projected hydrological changes compared to the climate models. Due to their systematic biases, GCM outputs cannot be used directly in hydrological impact studies, so a statistical bias correction has been applied. The results show a large spread in projected changes in water resources within the climate–hydrology modelling chain for some regions. They clearly demonstrate that climate models are not the only source of uncertainty for hydrological change, and that the spread resulting from the choice of the hydrology model is larger than the spread originating from the climate models over many areas. But there are also areas showing a robust change signal, such as at high latitudes and in some midlatitude regions, where the models agree on the sign of projected hydrological changes, indicative of higher confidence in this ensemble mean signal. In many catchments an increase of available water resources is expected but there are some severe decreases in Central and Southern Europe, the Middle East, the Mississippi River basin, southern Africa, southern China and south-eastern Australia.

  15. Hydrological modeling of the Simly Dam watershed (Pakistan) using GIS and SWAT model

    OpenAIRE

    Shimaa M. Ghoraba

    2015-01-01

    Modern mathematical models have been developed for studying the complex hydrological processes of a watershed and their direct relation to weather, topography, geology and land use. In this study the hydrology of Simly Dam watershed located in Saon River basin at the north-east of Islamabad is modeled, using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). It aims to simulate the stream flow, establish the water balance and estimate the monthly volume inflow to Simly Dam in order to help the manage...

  16. Monitoring and modelling of biosphere/atmosphere exchange of gases and aerosols in Europe

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Erisman, Jan Willem [Energy Research Centre of the Netherlands (ECN), P.O. Box 1, 1755 ZG Petten (Netherlands)]. E-mail: erisman@ecn.nl; Vermeulen, Alex [Energy Research Centre of the Netherlands (ECN), P.O. Box 1, 1755 ZG Petten (Netherlands); Hensen, Arjan [Energy Research Centre of the Netherlands (ECN), P.O. Box 1, 1755 ZG Petten (Netherlands); Flechard, Chris [Energy Research Centre of the Netherlands (ECN), P.O. Box 1, 1755 ZG Petten (Netherlands); Daemmgen, Ulrich [Federal Agricultural Research Centre, Institute of Agroecology, D-38116 Braunschweig, (Germany); Fowler, David [CEH, Bush Estate, Penicuik, Midlothian EH26 0QB (United Kingdom); Sutton, Mark [CEH, Bush Estate, Penicuik, Midlothian EH26 0QB (United Kingdom); Gruenhage, Ludger [Institute for Plant Ecology, Justus-Liebig-University, D-35392 Giessen (Germany); Tuovinen, Juha-Pekka [Finnish Meteorological Institute, FIN-00810 Helsinki (Finland)

    2005-02-01

    Monitoring and modelling of deposition of air pollutants is essential to develop and evaluate policies to abate the effects related to air pollution and to determine the losses of pollutants from the atmosphere. Techniques for monitoring wet deposition fluxes are widely applied. A recent intercomparison experiment, however, showed that the uncertainty in wet deposition is relatively high, up to 40%, apart from the fact that most samplers are biased because of a dry deposition contribution. Wet deposition amounts to about 80% of the total deposition in Europe with a range of 10-90% and uncertainty should therefore be decreased. During recent years the monitoring of dry deposition has become possible. Three sites have been operational for 5 years. The data are useful for model development, but also for model evaluation and monitoring of progress in policy. Data show a decline in SO{sub 2} dry deposition, whereas nitrogen deposition remained constant. Furthermore, surface affinities for pollutants changed leading to changes in deposition. Deposition models have been further developed and tested with dry deposition measurements and total deposition measurements on forests as derived from throughfall data. The comparison is reasonable given the measurement uncertainties. Progress in ozone surface exchange modelling and monitoring shows that stomatal uptake can be quantified with reasonable accuracy, but external surface uptake yields highest uncertainty. - Monitoring and modelling of the deposition of sulphur and nitrogen components and the exposure of ozone has gained much progress through the research within BIATEX.

  17. Safety case for the disposal of spent nuclear fuel at Olkiluoto. Data basis for the Biosphere Assessment BSA-2012. Part 1-2, Appendices

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2014-01-15

    The purpose of the report is to document and justify the input data used in the models of the biosphere assessment. Methodology similar to that presented in the Models and Data for the Repository System report has been followed. After more introductory parts, chapter 3 lays the foundation of data selection by describing typical properties of the soil and sediment types and biotopes, and summarises the representative plants and animals selected in the Biosphere Description report. The conceptual models on pools and fluxes of elements in the ecosystems are presented in chapter 4. These, together with the more qualitative descriptions of the succession lines in the Biosphere Description report, are simplified into the actual assessment models (summarised in chapter 5) in an iterative manner. Chapter 6 briefly presents the scenarios and calculation cases of the biosphere assessment, detailed in the Formulation of Radionuclide Releases Scenarios report. The account of the actual input data to the assessment models begins in chapter 7 with the data needed to identify the biotopes and compartments common to all assessment models. Chapters 8 to 13, grouped by the sub-models, address the input data to the terrain and ecosystems development modelling (detailed in the Terrain and Ecosystems Development Modelling report), and chapter 14 those to the surface and near-surface hydrological model (the Surface and Near-Surface Hydrological Modelling report). Chapters 15 to 18 address the data to the radionuclide transport modelling in the biosphere, and chapter 19 those needed for the dose assessment for humans (the Biosphere Radionuclide Transport and Dose Assessment report). Finally, before conclusions in chapter 21, the input data specific to the dose assessment for plants and animals (the Dose Assessment for the Plants and Animals report) are addressed in chapter 20. However, several parameters are common to the assessment models and are presented in connection to the model

  18. Safety case for the disposal of spent nuclear fuel at Olkiluoto. Data basis for the Biosphere Assessment BSA-2012. Part 1-2, Appendices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of the report is to document and justify the input data used in the models of the biosphere assessment. Methodology similar to that presented in the Models and Data for the Repository System report has been followed. After more introductory parts, chapter 3 lays the foundation of data selection by describing typical properties of the soil and sediment types and biotopes, and summarises the representative plants and animals selected in the Biosphere Description report. The conceptual models on pools and fluxes of elements in the ecosystems are presented in chapter 4. These, together with the more qualitative descriptions of the succession lines in the Biosphere Description report, are simplified into the actual assessment models (summarised in chapter 5) in an iterative manner. Chapter 6 briefly presents the scenarios and calculation cases of the biosphere assessment, detailed in the Formulation of Radionuclide Releases Scenarios report. The account of the actual input data to the assessment models begins in chapter 7 with the data needed to identify the biotopes and compartments common to all assessment models. Chapters 8 to 13, grouped by the sub-models, address the input data to the terrain and ecosystems development modelling (detailed in the Terrain and Ecosystems Development Modelling report), and chapter 14 those to the surface and near-surface hydrological model (the Surface and Near-Surface Hydrological Modelling report). Chapters 15 to 18 address the data to the radionuclide transport modelling in the biosphere, and chapter 19 those needed for the dose assessment for humans (the Biosphere Radionuclide Transport and Dose Assessment report). Finally, before conclusions in chapter 21, the input data specific to the dose assessment for plants and animals (the Dose Assessment for the Plants and Animals report) are addressed in chapter 20. However, several parameters are common to the assessment models and are presented in connection to the model

  19. Dynamic Hydrological Modeling in Drylands with TRMM Based Rainfall

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elena Tarnavsky

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper introduces and evaluates DryMOD, a dynamic water balance model of the key hydrological process in drylands that is based on free, public-domain datasets. The rainfall model of DryMOD makes optimal use of spatially disaggregated Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM datasets to simulate hourly rainfall intensities at a spatial resolution of 1-km. Regional-scale applications of the model in seasonal catchments in Tunisia and Senegal characterize runoff and soil moisture distribution and dynamics in response to varying rainfall data inputs and soil properties. The results highlight the need for hourly-based rainfall simulation and for correcting TRMM 3B42 rainfall intensities for the fractional cover of rainfall (FCR. Without FCR correction and disaggregation to 1 km, TRMM 3B42 based rainfall intensities are too low to generate surface runoff and to induce substantial changes to soil moisture storage. The outcomes from the sensitivity analysis show that topsoil porosity is the most important soil property for simulation of runoff and soil moisture. Thus, we demonstrate the benefit of hydrological investigations at a scale, for which reliable information on soil profile characteristics exists and which is sufficiently fine to account for the heterogeneities of these. Where such information is available, application of DryMOD can assist in the spatial and temporal planning of water harvesting according to runoff-generating areas and the runoff ratio, as well as in the optimization of agricultural activities based on realistic representation of soil moisture conditions.

  20. One-Water Hydrologic Flow Model (MODFLOW-OWHM)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanson, Randall T.; Boyce, Scott E.; Schmid, Wolfgang; Hughes, Joseph D.; Mehl, Steffen W.; Leake, Stanley A.; Maddock, Thomas; Niswonger, Richard G.

    2014-01-01

    The One-Water Hydrologic Flow Model (MF-OWHM) is a MODFLOW-based integrated hydrologic flow model (IHM) that is the most complete version, to date, of the MODFLOW family of hydrologic simulators needed for the analysis of a broad range of conjunctive-use issues. Conjunctive use is the combined use of groundwater and surface water. MF-OWHM allows the simulation, analysis, and management of nearly all components of human and natural water movement and use in a physically-based supply-and-demand framework. MF-OWHM is based on the Farm Process for MODFLOW-2005 (MF-FMP2) combined with Local Grid Refinement (LGR) for embedded models to allow use of the Farm Process (FMP) and Streamflow Routing (SFR) within embedded grids. MF-OWHM also includes new features such as the Surface-water Routing Process (SWR), Seawater Intrusion (SWI), and Riparian Evapotrasnpiration (RIP-ET), and new solvers such as Newton-Raphson (NWT) and nonlinear preconditioned conjugate gradient (PCGN). This IHM also includes new connectivities to expand the linkages for deformation-, flow-, and head-dependent flows. Deformation-dependent flows are simulated through the optional linkage to simulated land subsidence with a vertically deforming mesh. Flow-dependent flows now include linkages between the new SWR with SFR and FMP, as well as connectivity with embedded models for SFR and FMP through LGR. Head-dependent flows now include a modified Hydrologic Flow Barrier Package (HFB) that allows optional transient HFB capabilities, and the flow between any two layers that are adjacent along a depositional or erosional boundary or displaced along a fault. MF-OWHM represents a complete operational hydrologic model that fully links the movement and use of groundwater, surface water, and imported water for consumption by irrigated agriculture, but also of water used in urban areas and by natural vegetation. Supply and demand components of water use are analyzed under demand-driven and supply

  1. Technical review of large-scale hydrological models for implementation in operational flood forecasting schemes on continental level

    OpenAIRE

    KAUFFELD Anna; WETTERHALL F.; Pappenberger F.; SALAMON Peter; THIELEN DEL POZO Jutta

    2014-01-01

    The uncertainty in operational hydrological forecast systems driven with numerical weather predictions inputs are often assessed by quantifying the uncertainty from the inputs and not from the hydrological model itself. However, part of the uncertainty in modelled discharge stems from the hydrological model and some models may be more suitable than others for particular processes. A hydrological multi-model hydrological system can account for some of this uncertainty, but there exists a p...

  2. Adaptable Web Modules to Stimulate Active Learning in Engineering Hydrology using Data and Model Simulations of Three Regional Hydrologic Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Habib, E. H.; Tarboton, D. G.; Lall, U.; Bodin, M.; Rahill-Marier, B.; Chimmula, S.; Meselhe, E. A.; Ali, A.; Williams, D.; Ma, Y.

    2013-12-01

    The hydrologic community has long recognized the need for broad reform in hydrologic education. A paradigm shift is critically sought in undergraduate hydrology and water resource education by adopting context-rich, student-centered, and active learning strategies. Hydrologists currently deal with intricate issues rooted in complex natural ecosystems containing a multitude of interconnected processes. Advances in the multi-disciplinary field include observational settings such as Critical Zone and Water, Sustainability and Climate Observatories, Hydrologic Information Systems, instrumentation and modeling methods. These research advances theory and practices call for similar efforts and improvements in hydrologic education. The typical, text-book based approach in hydrologic education has focused on specific applications and/or unit processes associated with the hydrologic cycle with idealizations, rather than the contextual relations in the physical processes and the spatial and temporal dynamics connecting climate and ecosystems. An appreciation of the natural variability of these processes will lead to graduates with the ability to develop independent learning skills and understanding. This appreciation cannot be gained in curricula where field components such as observational and experimental data are deficient. These types of data are also critical when using simulation models to create environments that support this type of learning. Additional sources of observations in conjunction with models and field data are key to students understanding of the challenges associated with using models to represent such complex systems. Recent advances in scientific visualization and web-based technologies provide new opportunities for the development of active learning techniques utilizing ongoing research. The overall goal of the current study is to develop visual, case-based, data and simulation driven learning experiences to instructors and students through a web

  3. A Flexible Framework Hydrological Informatic Modeling System - HIMS

    Science.gov (United States)

    WANG, L.; Wang, Z.; Changming, L.; Li, J.; Bai, P.

    2017-12-01

    Simulating water cycling process temporally and spatially fitting for the characteristics of the study area was important for floods prediction and streamflow simulation with high accuracy, as soil properties, land scape, climate, and land managements were the critical factors influencing the non-linear relationship of rainfall-runoff at watershed scales. Most existing hydrological models cannot simulate water cycle process at different places with customized mechanisms with fixed single structure and mode. This study develops Hydro-Informatic Modeling System (HIMS) model with modular of each critical hydrological process with multiple choices for various scenarios to solve this problem. HIMS has the structure accounting for two runoff generation mechanisms of infiltration excess and saturation excess and estimated runoff with different methods including Time Variance Gain Model (TVGM), LCM which has good performance at ungauged areas, besides the widely used Soil Conservation Service-Curve Number (SCS-CN) method. Channel routing model contains the most widely used Muskingum, and kinematic wave equation with new solving method. HIMS model performance with its symbolic runoff generation model LCM was evaluated through comparison with the observed streamflow datasets of Lasha river watershed at hourly, daily, and monthly time steps. Comparisons between simulational and obervational streamflows were found with NSE higher than 0.87 and WE within ±20%. Water balance analysis about precipitation, streamflow, actual evapotranspiration (ET), and soil moisture change was conducted temporally at annual time step and it has been proved that HIMS model performance was reliable through comparison with literature results at the Lhasa River watershed.

  4. Human impact parameterizations in global hydrological models improve estimates of monthly discharges and hydrological extremes: a multi-model validation study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Veldkamp, T I E; Zhao, F; Ward, P J; Moel, H de; Aerts, J C J H; Schmied, H Müller; Portmann, F T; Masaki, Y; Pokhrel, Y; Liu, X; Satoh, Yusuke; Gerten, Dieter; Gosling, S N; Zaherpour, J; Wada, Yoshihide

    2018-01-01

    Human activity has a profound influence on river discharges, hydrological extremes and water-related hazards. In this study, we compare the results of five state-of-the-art global hydrological models (GHMs) with observations to examine the role of human impact par